• Which Animals Could You Beat In A Fight?
  Which Animals Could You Beat In A Fight?

  If you’ve ever daydreamed about protecting yourself and your family from a rampant wild animal, you probably concluded your fantasy as the victor.

  If the scenario were to become a reality though, and you had to fight an animal unarmed, what do you think the actual outcome would be?

  A 2021 YouGov survey asked exactly that of British and United States adults and as Statista’s Martin Armstrong shows in the infographic below, some of the respondents were still firmly in fantasy land when considering the scenarios.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  This can be said to a greater extent for people in the United States where, for example, 8 percent said they think they could beat a gorilla.

  A gorilla, with their bare hands.

  Presumably more realistic, almost 70 percent in both countries said they could take a house cat in hand-to-paw combat.

  A rat, likely a tricky customer for most opponents, nevertheless inspired the most confidence with up to 72 percent claiming they would emerge victorious from the ordeal.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/27/2021 – 02:45

• Europe Braces For Tsunami Of Afghan Migrants
  Europe Braces For Tsunami Of Afghan Migrants

  Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

  The Taliban conquest of Afghanistan is poised to trigger an unprecedented wave of Afghan migration to Europe, which is bracing for the arrival of potentially hundreds of thousands — possibly even millions — of refugees and migrants from the war-torn country.

  

  German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, expressing an ominous sense of foreboding, has estimated that up to five million people will try to leave Afghanistan for Europe. Such migration numbers, if they materialize, would make the previous migration crisis of 2015 — when more than a million people from Africa, Asia and the Middle East made their way to Europe — pale by comparison.

  Since 2015, around 570,000 Afghans — almost exclusively young men — have requested asylum in the European Union, according to EU estimates. In 2020, Afghanistan was the EU’s second-biggest source of asylum applicants after those from Syria.

  Afghan males, many of whom have been especially difficult to assimilate or integrate into European society, have been responsible for hundreds — possibly thousands — of sexual assaults against local European women and girls in recent years. The arrival in Europe of millions more Afghans portends considerable future societal upheaval.

  The 27 member states of the European Union are, as usual, divided on how to prepare for the coming migratory deluge. The leaders of some countries say they have a humanitarian obligation to accept large numbers of Afghan migrants. Others argue that it is time for Islamic countries to shoulder the burden.

  Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, the administrative arm of the European Union, said that the EU has a “moral responsibility” to take in those who are fleeing the Taliban. The leaders of many EU member states disagree.

  In Austria, which in recent years has taken in over 40,000 Afghans (the second highest number in Europe after Germany, which has taken in 148,000 Afghans), Chancellor Sebastian Kurz vowed that his country will not be accepting any more. In an interview with Austrian broadcaster Puls 24, he said that Austria had already made a “disproportionately large contribution” to Afghanistan:

  “I am clearly opposed to us now taking in more people. That will not happen under my chancellorship. Taking in people who then cannot be integrated is a huge problem for us as a country.”

  Austrian Interior Minister Karl Nehammer, in a joint statement with Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg, called for Afghans illegally in Austria to be deported to Islamic countries, now that they cannot, according to EU law, be deported back to Afghanistan:

  “If deportations are no longer possible because of the restrictions imposed on us by the European Convention on Human Rights, alternatives must be considered. Deportation centers in the region around Afghanistan would be one possibility. That requires the strength and support of the European Commission.”

  Nehammer, in an interview with the APA news agency, insisted that deportations should be viewed as a security issue rather than as a humanitarian matter:

  “It is easy to call for a general ban on deportations to Afghanistan, while on the other hand ignoring the expected migration movements. Those who need protection must receive it as close as possible to their country of origin.

  “A general ban on deportation is a pull factor for illegal migration and only fuels the inconsiderate and cynical business of smugglers and thus organized crime.

  “As minister of the interior, I am primarily responsible for the people living in Austria. Above all, this means protecting social peace and the welfare state over the long term.”

  Schallenberg added:

  “The crisis in Afghanistan is not unfolding in a vacuum. Conflict and instability in the region will sooner or later spill over to Europe and thus to Austria.”

  An opinion poll published by Österreich 24 showed that nearly three-fourths of respondents back the Austrian government’s hard line Afghan migration. The poll linked the support to a high-profile criminal case in which four Afghans in Vienna drugged and raped a 13-year-old girl who was strangled, lost consciousness and died.

  In Germany, migration from Afghanistan has emerged as a major issue ahead of federal elections scheduled for September 26. Paul Ziemiak, general secretary of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, said that Germany should not adopt the open-door migration policy it pursued in 2015, when Merkel allowed into the country more than a million migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East. In an interview with German broadcaster n-tv, he said:

  “It is clear to us that 2015 must not be repeated. We will not be able to solve the Afghanistan issue by migration to Germany.”

  CDU chancellor candidate Armin Laschet has remained silent on the Afghan issue, as has the chancellor candidate for the Social Democrats (SPD) Olaf Scholz. By contrast, the chancellor candidate for the Greens party, Annalena Baerbock, called for Germany to take in well over 50,000 Afghans. “We have to come to terms with this,” she said in an interview with ARD television.

  Meanwhile, Afghan criminals, including rapists and drug traffickers, who previously had been deported to Afghanistan, have now returned to Germany on evacuation flights. Upon arrival in Germany, they immediately submitted new asylum applications. “It is not a completely new scenario that people come to Germany who previously had been deported,” said an interior ministry spokesman.

  In France, President Emmanuel Macron has called for a coordinated European response to prevent mass migration from Afghanistan:

  “The destabilization of Afghanistan will likely increase the flow of irregular migration to Europe…. Europe alone will not be able to assume the consequences of the current situation. We must plan and protect ourselves against large irregular migratory flows that endanger those who are part of them and fuel trafficking of all kinds.”

  Marine Le Pen, who is running neck and neck in the polls with Macron ahead of French presidential elections set for April 2022, said that France should say “no” to massive migration of Afghan refugees. A petition on her party’s website — “Afghanistan: NO to a new migratory highway!” — stated:

  “We are fully aware of the human tragedies and the obvious distress of some of the legitimate refugees. But the right of asylum must not continue to be, as it is now, the Trojan horse of massive, uncontrolled and imposed immigration, of Islamism, and in some cases of terrorism, as was the case with certain jihadists involved in the attacks of November 13, 2015 [date on which a series of coordinated jihadist attacks took place in Paris in which more than 130 people were killed and more than 400 were injured.]

  “The mayors of certain large cities have already announced their intention to welcome refugees. It is in our opinion an obvious risk to their fellow citizens.

  “What matters to us first and foremost is the protection of our compatriots.”

  Meanwhile, five Afghans who were airlifted to France have been placed under counter-terrorism surveillance for suspected ties to the Taliban, according to the French Interior Ministry. One of the men, who worked for the French embassy in Kabul, admitted, under questioning, to have previously managed a Taliban checkpoint. Another 20 Afghans taken to France are being investigated for asylum fraud.

  In Greece, the government, fearing a repeat of the 2015 migration crisis, has erected a 40-km (25-mile) fence and installed a new surveillance system on its border with Turkey to deter Afghan migrants from trying to reach Europe. In recent years, Greece has been a key gateway to Europe for migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

  Public Order Minister Michalis Chrisochoidis said:

  “We cannot wait, passively, for the possible impact. Our borders will remain safe and inviolable.”

  Greek Minister for Migration and Asylum, Notis Mitarachi, added that the EU needs to send “the right messages” in order to avoid a new migration crisis “which Europe is unable to shoulder.” He stressed: “Our country will not be a gateway to Europe for illegal Afghan migrants.”

  In Italy, Prime Minister Mario Draghi called for the Group of 20 major economies to hold a summit on the situation in Afghanistan. The Italian newspaper La Repubblica noted:

  “The G20, for Draghi, has a strategic value: it is in that forum that one can and must reach a commitment that binds not only the forces of a West that has come out battered from its twenty-year mission in Afghanistan, but also and above all those countries such as China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey which have interests and influence on the self-proclaimed Islamic state.”

  In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in a statement to Parliament, announced a plan to take in 20,000 Afghan migrants:

  “We must deal with the world as it is, accepting what we have achieved and what we have not achieved….

  “We will not be sending people back to Afghanistan and nor by the way will we be allowing people to come from Afghanistan to this country in an indiscriminate way.

  “We want to be generous, but we must make sure we look after our own security.”

  In Turkey, the government is building a 295-km (180-mile) wall along its border with Iran to prevent a new influx of migrants from Afghanistan. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that a new wave of migration is “inevitable” if Afghanistan and Iran fail to secure their borders. He added that Turkey will not become a “refugee warehouse” for fleeing Afghans:

  “We need to remind our European friends of this fact: Europe — which has become the center of attraction for millions of people — cannot stay out of the Afghan refugee problem by harshly sealing its borders to protect the safety and wellbeing of its citizens. Turkey has no duty, responsibility or obligation to be Europe’s refugee warehouse.”

  Meanwhile, thousands of Afghan migrants are arriving in countries across Europe, including Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Serbia and Sweden, among others.

  Albania, Macedonia and Kosovo (here, here and here) agreed to temporarily shelter hundreds of Afghans who worked with Western peacekeeping military forces and are now threatened by the Taliban.

  Spain said that it would temporarily host up to 4,000 Afghan migrants at two military bases used by the United States.

  Slovenia, which currently holds the EU’s six-month rotating presidency, said that the European Union will not allow a surge in Afghan migration. Prime Minister Janez Janša tweeted:

  “The #EU will not open any European ‘humanitarian’ or migration corridors for #Afghanistan. We will not allow the strategic mistake from 2015 to be repeated. We will only help individuals who helped us during the #NATO Operation. And to the EU members who protect our external border.”

  Meanwhile, dozens of Afghan migrants are trapped along the border between Poland and Belarus. Poland and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania said that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s practice of sending migrants across their borders is an act of “hybrid warfare.” Lukashenko is accused of seeking revenge for sanctions the EU imposed over his disputed reelection and a crackdown on dissent.

  Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that although he sympathized with the Afghan migrants, he said that they were “a tool in the hands of Mr. Lukashenko” and that Poland would not succumb to “this type of blackmail.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/27/2021 – 02:00

• A "Strategic Apocalypse" In Afghanistan: A Seismic Shift, Years In The Making
  A “Strategic Apocalypse” In Afghanistan: A Seismic Shift, Years In The Making

  Authored by Alastair Crooke via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  [ZH: written before today’s awful events in Kabul]

  China is more determined to shape the region than many analysts realise…

  

  A huge geo-political event has just occurred in Afghanistan: The implosion of a key western strategy for managing what Mackinder, in the 19th century, called the Asian heartland. That it was accomplished, without fighting, and in few days, is almost unprecedented.

  It has been a shock. Not just one of those ephemeral shocks that is soon forgotten, but a deeply traumatic one. Unlike the psychological impact of 9/11, the western world is treating the experience as mourning for the loss of ‘a loved one’. There have been ministerial tears, chest beating and an entry into the first three stages of grief simultaneously: Firstly, shock and denial (a state of disbelief and numbed feelings); then, pain and guilt (for those allies of ours huddled at Kabul airport), and finally, anger. The fourth stage is already in sight in the U.S.: Depression – as the polls show America already swinging towards deep pessimism about the pandemic, economic and prospects, as well as the course on which the American Republic is set.

  Here we have a clear statement from the editors of The New York Times of who that ‘loved one’ was:

  [The Afghan debacle is] “tragic because the American Dream of being the ‘indispensable nation’ in a world where the values of civil rights, women’s empowerment and religious tolerance rule – proved to be just a dream”.

  Michael Rubin representing the hawkish AEI pronounced an eulogy over ‘the corpse’:

  Biden, Blinken, and Jake Sullivan might craft statements about the mistakes of earlier NATO overreach, “and the need for Washington to focus on its core interests further West. And Pentagon officials and diplomats might contest any lessening of America’s commitment with indignation, yet the reality is NATO is a Dead Man Walking”.

  An earlier piece, reflecting fury at Biden – and the sense of a strategic apocalypse having befallen Washington – is best caught in this agonised cry, again from Michael Rubin:

  “By enabling China to advance its interests in Afghanistan, Biden also enables it to cut-off India and other American allies from Central Asia. Simply put … Biden’s incompetence now risks the entire post-World War II liberal order … God help the United States”.

  Rubin says plainly what Afghanistan was always truly about: Disrupting Central Asia, to weaken Russia and China. Rubin at least spares us the hypocrisy about safeguarding girls’ education (others, who are close to the U.S. military industrial complex, continue the mantra of the need to re-deploy to Afghanistan and for continued war – and consequent weapons sales – in Afghanistan, in part ‘to protect’ women’s rights). Rubin concludes: “Rather than enhance America’s position against China however, Biden has hemorrhaged it”.

  In Britain too, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, Tom Tugenhadt, has lamented Biden’s strategic mistake, and the imperative to not give up – but to persevere:

  “This isn’t just about Afghanistan”, he writes, “It’s about us all. We are engaged in a challenge over the way the world works. We’re seeing autocratic powers like China and Russia challenge the rules and break the agreements we’ve made …”.

  Tugenhadt believes that: 

  “We can turn this around. We need to. This is a choice. So far we’re choosing to lose”. Many hawks in Washington acknowledge that this is, of course, impossible. That era is now gone – indeed, what the last days events in Afghanistan represent is a paradigm lost.

  Many are deeply angry at Biden (albeit reflecting mixed agendas), and are bemused too, at how this could have occurred. The explanation however, may be even more disturbing. The writing had long been writ in blood on the wall for Afghanistan – there is a limit to how long a corrupt elite, severed from its roots in its own people, can be sustained by a waning alien culture.

  The urgings from the British PM in a telecon with Biden however, that the latter must preserve “the gains” of the last twenty years in Afghanistan is literally to dream.

  But the deeper story is the one of not just the transformation of the Taliban, but rather, of a seismic shift in geopolitics. Western intelligence agencies were so consumed with ‘counter-terrorism’ that they failed to see the new dynamics at play. Certainly, that might explain the Biden’s administration’s assessment of the long months it would take before the Ghani regime was at risk of falling.

  Many years ago, before the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1979, I was based in Peshawar, Pakistan, near Afghanistan. I was responsible for diplomatic reporting on the war and engagement with Afghan leaders during the Soviet era. I came to know the Taliban, which had recently been forged by Pakistani Intelligence, under Gen. Hamid Gul. They were then: intensely parochial, geographically and politically sectarian, xenophobic, tribal and unbendingly rigid.

  As Pashtuns recidivists, and too, the biggest minority ethnic group in Afghanistan, they would kill other ethnicities wantonly: Shia Hazaras in particular, as apostates, were killed. They detested Ahmad Shah Masood, the ‘lion on Panshir’ and a hero of the resistance to the Soviets, because he was a Tajik. Some of their fundamentalism was fuelled by the radicalised strains of Islam, Deobandism and Wahhabism – exports of Saudi Arabia and Dar al-Islam Howzah in India. But mostly it was ancient tribal lore known as Pashtunwali.

  The Taliban we see today is a far more complex, multi-ethnic, and sophisticated coalition, which is why they have been able, at such breath-taking speed, to topple the western-installed Afghanistan government.

  They talk Afghan political inclusion – and look to Iran, Russia, China and Pakistan for mediation, and to facilitate their place in the ‘Great Game’. They aspire to play a regional role as a pluralist Sunni Islamist government.

  This is why they have given explicit assurances to these key external partners that their rise to power will bring neither a bloodbath of score-settling, nor civil war. They also promise that different religious sects will be respected, and girls and women can and will be educated.

  The sweep of the Taliban to power however, has been years in the making, with key outside actors playing a crucial part in overseeing the metamorphosis. More concretely, as consensus with the Taliban on the future was reached, these external powers – China, Iran, Russia and Pakistan – have brought their Afghan allies (i.e. other Afghan minorities, who are almost as numerous) to the negotiating table alongside the Taliban. The latter’s links with China go back several years. Iran too, has been engaged with the Taliban and other Afghan components, in a similar vein, for at least two decades. Russia and Pakistan engaged jointly, in December 2016.

  As a result of this concerted outreach, the Taliban leadership adjusted to the realpolitik of Central Asia: They see that the SCO represents the coming regional strategic paradigm, which can enable them to come out of their isolation as political ‘untouchables’ and pave a path for them to govern and rebuild Afghanistan, with economic assistance from SCO-member states.

  Civil war remains a risk: We may expect that the CIA will try to stand-up an Afghan counter-insurgency to the new government – the path is not difficult to forecast: acts of violence and assassinations will (and are) being attributed to the “terrorist” Taliban. They will likely be false flag operations. And there is talk too, (mostly in the West) as to whether the Taliban can be ‘trusted’, or will stick to their undertakings.

  It is not, however, just a simple question of ‘trust’. The difference today lies with the external geo-political architecture that has brought this event into being. These external regional partners will tell (and have told) the Taliban that, if they violate their assurances, they will regain their international pariah status: they will be classified as terrorists again, their borders will close, their economy will tank – and the country racked by civil war yet again. In short, the calculus is rooted in self-interest, rather than the presumption of trust.

  China is more determined to shape the region than many analysts realise. It’ is often said that China is purely mercantile, interested only in advancing its economic agenda. Yet China’s Xinjiang province – its Islamist underbelly – shares a border with Afghanistan. This touches on state security, and China therefore will require stability in Afghanistan. It will not tolerate ethnic Turkic insurgents (spurred by the West) moving into or from Afghanistan into Turkmenistan or Xinjiang. The Uighurs are ethnically Turkic. We can expect China to be tough on this point.

  Thus, not only have the U.S. and NATO been forced to exit from the ‘crossroads of Asia’ in desperate disarray, but these developments set the stage for a major evolution of Russia and China’s economic and trade regional corridor plans. They also transform the security of central Asia in respect to Chinese and Russian vulnerabilities there. (The U.S., so far, has been denied an alternative military base in Central Asia, relocating its forces instead to Jordan).

  To be fair, Michael Rubin was ‘half right’ when he said that “Rather than enhance America’s position against China, Biden has hemorrhaged it”, but only half right. Because the missing ‘other half’ is that Washington was outplayed by Russia, China and Iran. Western Intelligence failed utterly to see the new domestic Afghan dynamics – the external actors underwriting the Taliban’s negotiations with the tribes.

  And they still do not see all the external dominoes falling into place around an Afghan pivot, that changes the whole Central Asian calculus.

  Additional pieces to this jigsaw picture of paradigm change have become visible in the wake of the Taliban’s sweep to power: One domino fell even before the ‘Kabul rout’: Iran’s new Administration has strategically re-positioned the country towards prioritising relations other Islamic states, but in partnership with Russia and China.

  The Iranian National Security Council then declined to agree the draft Vienna agreement for a re-launch of JCPOA (the second domino to slip into place).

  During the rout China and Russia (‘co-incidentally’) closed the airspace over northern Afghanistan on account of their joint military exercises taking place to the north of Afghanistan – and, for the first time the two powers exercised under joint military control. This represents the third (and very significant) domino, though one barely noticed by the West.

  Finally, Pakistan strategically re-positioned too, by declining to host any U.S. military presence in its territory.

  And then, yet one last domino: Iran was invited formally to join the SCO (which ultimately would imply Iran joining the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), thus giving the country a fresh economic and trade horizon – absent the lifting of the U.S. siege of its economy.

  So not only have the U.S. and NATO been forced to exit from this new strategic locus, but these parallel developments set the stage for a major evolution of Russia and China’s economic and trade regional corridor plan.

  China will play a key part in this. China and Russia have recognised the Taliban government, and China will likely build a pipeline along the ‘5-nation corridor’, bringing Iranian oil to China, via northern Afghanistan. It will likely then follow on with a north-south corridor, ultimately linking St Petersburg via Afghanistan to Iran’s Chabahar port lying across the strait from Oman.

  For the west, this concatenation of falling dominoes has been near incomprehensible.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 23:30

• DHL Warns Global Supply Chain Disruptions To Persist Next Year
  DHL Warns Global Supply Chain Disruptions To Persist Next Year

  The complex web of seaports, container ships, and trucking companies that move goods worldwide remains deeply tangled. 

  More than 18 months since the virus pandemic forced governments to shut down their economies and, in return, disrupt global supply chains. The emergence of the Delta variant has metastasized into more logistical hell for shippers. 

  Bloomberg spoke with companies on the front line of production and transportation to gather intel of what was happening on the ground. What they discovered was increasing supply chain disruption that will persist through 2022. 

  “We do not expect freight rates to stabilize in the near term,” according to Karsten Michaelis, head of ocean freight at DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.

  “The combination of a year of disruption, lack of containers, port congestions and a shortage of vessels in the right positions is creating a situation where cargo demand far exceeds available capacity.”

  Michaelis said his customers had been given alternative routes and modes of transport to navigate the turmoil. “We have to be prepared that costs will stay at elevated levels and are not expected to go back to pre-Covid levels,” he said. 

  Global container prices are at record highs. 

  

  Michaelis said the seasonal surge for holiday goods has already begun and will keep ocean freight “tight” for the remainder of the year. 

  “Capacity planning for the Christmas season has started much earlier this year because capacity is so tight in ocean freight,” he said. “We are seeing some customers even planning to fly in typical seasonal goods just to make sure they are on stock/in store on time.”

  In a series of shipping notes, titled “California Congestion Nears New High, East Coast Gridlock Worsens” and “US West Coast Port Congestion At Record High Amid Transpacific Trade Route Disruptions,” we outlined congestion at US West and East Coast ports is mounting once more. 

  The latest word from the frontlines is that supply chains disruptions are not waning anytime soon and will pressure consumer prices higher. So much for the Federal Reserve’s “transitory” narrative. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 23:00

• What Can We Learn About COVID Tyranny From Australia And Afghanistan?
  What Can We Learn About COVID Tyranny From Australia And Afghanistan?

  Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

  Despotic people tend to telegraph their future actions like inexperienced fighters tend to telegraph their punches; it’s not as if the intentions of totalitarians are obscured or hard to predict. In some cases they may even believe that they can be as obvious as they wish because they assume no one will ever try to stop them. They’ve been destroying lives for so long they adopt a sense of superiority, as if they are untouchable.

  

  In my extensive study of psychopathy I find that, unfortunately, the primary catalyst for the exploitation and victimization of large populations of people is that many of them can’t wrap their heads around the idea of an organized conspiracy of human monsters. They refuse to acknowledge the existence of the evil right in front of them, so the evil is able to go unopposed for long stretches of time. There is ALWAYS a moment, though, when psychopaths push the wrong people too far. They just can’t help it, and this is when they find themselves on the business end of a noose or the barrel of a gun.

  When it comes to organizations of psychopaths, the same moment also eventually arrives, it just takes longer for the public to comes to grips with the necessity of it.

  In terms of the “Great Reset” agenda, medical tyranny using covid as a rationale is clearly a key ingredient to the future objectives of the power elite. At the beginning of the pandemic lockdowns last year I made several predictions and warnings. I said that the mandates and lockdowns for most people around the world would never go away, and I called this “Wave Theory”; the use of intermittent moments of limited freedom followed by increasingly more aggressive restrictions.

  This cycle is meant to condition the public to the idea that governments are “allowed” to micromanage our daily lives, that this is “normal”, that it is for our own good and that we should enjoy the short moments of liberty or normalcy they so graciously let us to have.

  I have warned consistently that all governments around the world would eventually try to adopt proof of vaccination requirements in order for people to participate in everyday activities such as going to public venues, going to school, shopping in stores or even getting a job. The mainstream media and governments consistently claimed last year that vaccine passports were “not going to happen”, and that the very notion was a conspiracy theory. Now, the vaccines passports are being implemented in numerous countries including some parts of the US and anyone who stands against them is called a “conspiracy theorists”.

  You see how that works? If you expose the truth of an authoritarian plot the establishment lies and calls you a “conspiracy theorist”. Once the establishment admits to the plot and you refuse to comply with it those same liars call you a conspiracy theorist AGAIN, as well as a “terrorist.”

  Yes, this was also predicted by myself and others at the beginning of the pandemic. We said that the people that fight against vaccine passport tyranny would be quickly labeled as traitors and terrorists “putting others at risk” because we are too “selfish” to bow down and take the experimental jab or submit to the lockdowns. This is exactly what has happened, with the DHS recently announcing that one of the warning signs of a potential terrorist includes opposition to covid mandates and vaccines.

  I also predicted that the ultimate goal of the covid agenda will be to create domestic travel restrictions and state and city checkpoints, not to mention covid “camps” or prisons for the unvaccinated. In the US the DHS is admitting that they are entertaining the concept of interstate travel limits and a “papers please” system to prevent Americans from moving around freely. The state of New York hinted at covid camps many months ago, but the real plan is being revealed overseas in other Western nations like Australia and New Zealand.

  And here is where we find the telegraphed punches…

  I have specifically examined Australia and New Zealand’s fast track covid tyranny plans a year ago in my article ‘The Totalitarian Future Globalists Want For The Entire World Is Being Revealed’ and I noted that whatever happens in these countries along with certain countries in Europe is going to be tried in the US in the near term. The main difference being that these measures cannot be fast tracked in the same way in the US because Americans are heavily armed and have the ability to bury the establishment six feet under if we organized to do so.

  This is why vaccine passports are still only incremental in the US and are not being pushed in the vast majority of the nation. This is why outside of major cities most Americans completely ignore the mandates and have been doing so for many months.

  In my area I don’t think I have seen more than two people a day wearing a mask anywhere. The sight of it is so bizarre that it stands out almost immediately. I once even witnessed a woman in a mask (an obvious tourist) in line at the grocery store look around herself and realize NO ONE else was wearing one. She suddenly started making weird and very vocal excuses for her mask to all the people in line, claiming that she actually “hates the smell of detergents” and that was why she was wearing it.

  The difference between free rural areas and the dystopian cities is stark.

  Frankly, I don’t care if someone wears a mask or not. It’s a placebo that does nothing to stop the transmission of the virus, but if it makes them feel better then more power to them. The issue is when these scared and pathetic people try to project their delusions onto everyone else. Covid’s median death rate of 0.26% is so small it boggles my mind that so many people in blue states and counties are terrified of it. I don’t think they understand the basic statistics of the situation – 99.7% of the population has little to fear from covid.

  This is the data according to the CDC and dozens of mainstream and independent medical studies, but you will never hear these numbers in the media. They will talk of infection numbers and deaths, but they refuse to put the deaths in perspective with the statistics. Why? Because then the public fear would go away, and the establishment needs to ramp up the fear so that they can continue to take away our freedoms in the name of “safety”.

  I have been hearing a rather naive argument lately that countries like France are putting Americans to shame because they are in the streets protesting the lockdowns and passports. They are saying Americans will “never fight back.” What these people do not understand is that in most of the US there ARE NO LOCKDOWNS and there are no mandates. The government declares them, sure, and we just ignore them. There are only pockets of leftists in certain states and counties that actually follow and enforce these rules. The conservative population is fully ready and prepared to stop the agenda cold when the government actually tries to enforce it, and they will certainly try.

  Here is where we need to understand the horrifying developments in Australia and New Zealand: The lockdowns are now normalized in these places and the governments need no real excuse for them. They simply announce there are a handful of covid cases and that lockdowns must return. Travel is strangled and basic rights and freedoms are nonexistent. The New Zealand Prime Minister’s latest speech on the restrictions says it all:

  The main message here being that social interaction is forbidden. Just stay in your bubble and follow the mandates without question. And, even if you are vaccinated these rules still apply to you. The beauty of the covid restrictions is that they are a perfect excuse for a tyrannical government to block public assembly, which helps prevent the organization of resistance.

  The globalists need the lockdowns to go on forever. In Australia and NZ the assertion is that anyone that breaks them will be targeted for punishment up to and including being locked up in a military run covid camp. These are the same measures that Biden and the globalists within the establishment would like for the US. It’s not conspiracy theory, it’s conspiracy reality.

  This brings me to the Afghanistan situation, and some people might suggest that it has nothing to do with covid tyranny, but bear with me.  Again, it’s a matter again of predicting future events according to telegraphed punches as well as historic examples.

  The question I’m hearing most when it comes to Afghanistan is “how is it possible for a group of tribal cave people to defeat the most advanced military in the world.” I think this conundrum needs to be explored when it comes to covid tyranny because if the epic might of the US military was not enough to hold back the Taliban, how do the globalists plan to enforce covid lockdowns in America?

  Let’s be clear first that there are many people that argue that the US military was “not allowed to win” in Afghanistan. This is a misrepresentation of reality. That fact of the matter is, winning was ALWAYS IMPOSSIBLE in Afghanistan. The establishment knew this 20 years ago when they first sent American troops in. They did not need to sabotage the US mission in Afghanistan, because losing in Afghanistan was inevitable anyway.

  The occupation of an entire nation in order to diminish an large insurgency and impose a cultural shift is an effort that must be accomplished swiftly or not at all. The monetary cost is crippling, the human cost is staggering and the amount of resources needed to maintain subjugation is exponential. The truth is, the longer an occupation goes on without the total elimination of the insurgency, the less likely it is to succeed. The problem is, in order to completely eliminate the insurgency, you would have to wipe out most of the population using tactics that are grotesque; tactics that only inspire MORE insurgency.

  I’ll repeat the message here because I don’t think some people get it: The conspiracy to trap the US in failure was completed 20 years ago the moment we committed to the invasion of Afghanistan. It was all downhill from there and there was no way to win.

  I have also heard it said that it’s impractical to compare an Afghan insurgency to an American rebellion against tyranny because the Taliban is made up of fighters that far superior in ability to any patriots in the US.  In other words, some people think the Taliban are some kind of super soldiers. This is an idiotic take. I think the following video makes my point for me:

  These are not the brightest bulbs in the bunch nor are they unstoppable berserkers. Their training is sub-par and the majority of combat incidents with the Taliban note their habit of not even looking down their sites on their rifles when they shoot. This leads us to a logical query when it comes to the covid gulag the globalist want to transplant to the US – If the low rent fighters of the Taliban can fend off the modern military might of the US, then how in the hell do the globalists expect to control an American insurgency made up of trained combat veterans and experienced civilian shooters using guerrilla tactics?

  Who are they going to get to do this? Who is stupid enough to take the job of demanding papers and enforcing checkpoints and arresting those that don’t comply in predominantly conservative regions with more guns than people and enough ammo to fight at least a couple world wars? I suspect that expensive contractors would be the only answer outside of foreign forces, and even then, I would not want to be in their shoes when the sleeping giant of American rebellion stirs.

  I guess the lesson I am deriving from these examples is that the globalists are going to try to enforce the covid mandate agenda and passport tyranny no matter what. They cannot stop the process which they have set in motion. The events in Australia and NZ show that their addiction to totalitarianism in insatiable and it demands they pursue increasing control regardless of the cost. They are telling us exactly what they are about to do.

  The events in Afghanistan show that such control is nearly impossible to maintain over a population that is armed and that, in the US at least, they will ultimately lose…badly. Even if they use unmitigated terror tactics, they will still lose as long as Americans continue to fight. The laws of attrition always prevail, and technological superiority means nothing. To summarize, the fight is already won, but the struggle has just begun.

  *  *  *

  If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 22:30

• Feds Shutter Jail Where Jeffrey Epstein Was Found Dead
  Feds Shutter Jail Where Jeffrey Epstein Was Found Dead

  The Metropolitan Correctional Center, the Manhattan jail where Jeffrey Epstein was infamously found dead after two guards who were supposed to be keeping an eye on him took naps and surfed the Internet (that is, according to the official story), has been shuttered by the DoJ – at least temporarily – while the BOP scrambles to fix up the jail to make it a “safer” environment for inmates.

  According to the NYT, the decision comes just weeks after Deputy AG Lisa O. Monaco visited the jail in order to get a firsthand look at the conditions and its operations. She decided to shut it down “given the ongoing concerns.” Its current population of 233 inmates, most of whom are awaiting trial, will be moved to other accommodations.

  

  Over the years, the jail has played host to other major criminals, including “El Chapo” Guzman, the Mexican drug lord, and John Gotti, the boss of the Gambino crime family.

  A DoJ spokeswoman said Thursday that the department was “committed to ensuring that every facility in the federal prison system is not only safe and secure, but also provides people in custody with the resources and programs they need to make a successful return to society after they have served their time.”

  As part of that effort, the BoP had “assessed steps necessary to improve conditions” at the MCC, and in an effort to address them “as quickly and efficiently as possible,” the department had decided to close the jail “at least temporarily, until those issues have been resolved.”

  Though the BoP didn’t say where the other prisoners would be moved to, potential candidates include other nearby federal lockups, including the Metropolitan Detention Center, or MDC, in Brooklyn, and the federal prison in Otisville, NY.

  David Patton, the “attorney in chief” at Federal Defenders of New York, which represents thousands of indigent defendants in the Five Boroughs, told the NYT that the MCC has been a “longstanding disgrace”.

  “It’s cramped, dark and unsanitary. The building is falling apart. Chronic shortages of medical staff mean that people suffer for long periods of time when they have urgent medical issues.”

  One retiring federal judge also recently complained at the conditions of the two federal lockups.

  In April, Judge Colleen McMahon of Federal District Court in Manhattan, who had just stepped down as chief judge, said during the sentencing of a defendant that “the single thing in the five years that I was chief judge of this court that made me the craziest was my complete and utter inability to do anything meaningful about the conditions at the M.C.C., especially at the M.C.C.,” she said, as well as the M.D.C.

  “There is no excuse for the conditions in those two institutions,” she said, adding that they “are run by morons.”

  Of course, as the judge pointed out, the conditions at the MCC’s sister lockup, the MDC, over in Brooklyn, aren’t much better. The Patton, from the Federal Defenders of NY, said moving the inmates to MDC would “accomplish nothing” in terms of improving the conditions in which they are held.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 22:00

• The Weaponization Of Medicine
  The Weaponization Of Medicine

  Authored by Paul Rosenberg via FreemansPerspective.com,

  Whether or not we can express it clearly, or even perceive it clearly, I think nearly every adult grasps that medicine is being used as a weapon. 

  

  I am not a doctor, but I’ve been surrounded by medical professionals since my youth, beginning with my mom, who was not only an RN, but Head Nurse at two different hospitals. I’ve also been involved with science for a long time.

  I’ll be brief, making just five primary points. But we’ve been losing science and we’ve been losing medicine; that is flatly unacceptable.

  #1: Science is not consensus. 

  Ten, one hundred, or a million people, all draped in lab coats and saying the same thing, does NOT make it so. In fact, it matters not at all. It’s nothing but theater, and it’s anti-science.

  All science is, really, is a process of testing ideas; it is not an organization, it is not based upon authority (it’s inherently anti-authority), and it is very certainly not allied with power. All that matters in science are verifiable results.

  #2: Medicine stands apart from, and above, politics. 

  Medicine is the application of science to the furtherance of human health. Politics is the use of persuasion and power to rule masses of humans. These are fully separate disciplines. To place politics over medicine is to subjugate and degrade medicine: it’s a path backwards into darkness.

  I’ll leave details on this point to working medical practitioners, who can provide them with far greater specificity than I can… provided they’re not too frightened to do so.

  #3: Peer review no longer means much. 

  Again I won’t go into great detail, but peer review has been captured by academic hierarchies and almost fully separated from science proper. It has become a tool of institutional power, wielded by academics who have sold out science for the favors of power and politics.

  At one time, “peer review” referred to the honest replication of experiments. That time is past.

  #4: Medicine and science have nothing to do with social pressure. 

  Once “medicine” and “science” are mixed with social pressure, they are no longer science or medicine.

  At that point they are instruments of thuggery, and nothing more.

  #5: If you don’t read multiple scientific papers, especially from rebels and cast-outs, you simply don’t know. 

  You can pretend you know, of course, and you can be sure that agents of the status quo will provide you with passable reasons to repeat their slogans, but you won’t actually know.

  What you see on TV is propaganda. What you see on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube is pre-censored. If you want to really know, you’ll have to find the scientific papers that address your question… and you’ll need papers that are rejected by televised authorities. If you don’t, all you’ll have are pre-censored conclusions, the underlying facts of which may or may not be reliable.

  At this point, if you don’t include “conspiracy theory” research, you’re more or less stuck with Orwell’s Ministry of Truth. Sad but mostly true.

  The Problem Is Emotional Weakness

  The problem underlying all of this is not intellectual strength, it’s emotional strength. It’s not that people are stupid, it’s that they haven’t the strength to face unauthorized truth:

  • Having been trained in submission to authority, to then speak against an authority is terrifying. And so people find ways to ignore truth (which has no backing but itself) and to sanctify authority, which is backed by everything from shame to guns.

  • The fear of appearing stupid – of being publicly exposed as stupid – can be overwhelming. And with “important” people tearing up anyone not in lockstep with them, defiance seems too expensive.

  • Power being wrong calls too much into question. If the high and mighty can be publicly wrong, repeatedly and adamantly, what can’t be called into question? And if everything can be questioned, one must face the world alone.

  • Once people act upon fear, they can either turn against it and admit their error, or they can defend their errors at length. And if the people who thrive on those fears maintain a stream of frights and slogans… anyone on “the other side” becomes a heretic, to be hunted down and forced to submit.

  None of these things have any connection to truth, only to power and intimidation. And that is anti-science, no matter how much it masquerades as science.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 21:30

• Reporter Urges Aussies To Get Vaccinated Despite Suffering Rare Heart Inflammation Caused By Pfizer Jab
  Reporter Urges Aussies To Get Vaccinated Despite Suffering Rare Heart Inflammation Caused By Pfizer Jab

  An Australian TV reporter is suffering from one of the exceedingly rare (according to the CDC) side effects attributed to mRNA COVID jabs produced by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna. Denham Hitchcock, a reporter with Seven News, is suffering from a heart condition called pericarditis, which has been linked to the mRNA jabs – the FDA has even included a warning about the side effects with the Pfizer jab, which only just received full approval from the agency on Monday.

  

  For those who aren’t familiar with it, pericarditis involves inflammation of a sac-like tissue that surrounds the heart and holds it in place and helps it function. Hitchcock claims the condition was caused by his first shot of the Pfizer vaccine, and called on the government to “keep your damn promise” on opening up the world.

  But despite experiencing the severe side effect, the investigative journalist is still recommending that all Australians to get the vaccine so Australia can reopen its internal (and external) borders.

  “I’ve battled over whether to send this post from hospital or not. But decided after 27 years of being a journalist who’s primary goal is to discover the truth – it would be hypocritical not to,” he wrote on Instagram. I’m NOT anti-vax. But I’m really not pro-vax either. I’m pro-choice – and pro-information to make that choice. Probably a little late to hospital – but here I am – diagnosed with pericarditis – or inflammation of the heart due to the Pfizer vaccine.”

  Hitchcock made the post from his hospital bed in Gold Coast University Hospital on Thursday morning, roughly 25 days after he received his first shot.

  He said at first he was experiencing a racing heart, pins and needles, and dizziness, but continued on thinking they were normal side effects.

  Even after three weeks, he is still suffering from severe symptoms, including sharp chest pain, chills, and the dizziness, which have become extreme. Hitchcock  said in a post that this condition hasn’t gotten enough attention.

  “‘Since being here I’ve contacted health professionals I know in Sydney and while It’s rare – it’s certainly not isolated,” he said. “One hospital has had well over a dozen cases like me.”

  Pericarditis and myocarditis have been observed in an extremely small number of people after they receiving mRNA vaccines, of which Pfizer is one, according to data from the CDC that we have shared in the past.

  After experiencing “acute chest pain” a group of soldiers were found to have exhibited the reaction, which we first reported on weeks ago.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 21:00

• Ruling Class Increasingly Calls Upon The Private Sector To Make Lives Of The "Unvaccinated" Difficult
  Ruling Class Increasingly Calls Upon The Private Sector To Make Lives Of The “Unvaccinated” Difficult

  Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

  Is anyone sick of being ruled and owned yet? The ruling class is not letting up and increasingly calling upon businesses in the private sector to help them roll out the permanent slave state.

  

  They aren’t even trying to hide the fact that they want to own us, our bodies, and our minds at this point. Gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe is just one of the tyrants calling on businesses to mandate Covid-19 vaccines after promoting efforts to make the lives of those who are unvaccinated more “difficult.” Joe Biden has already tried this play right out of the slave owner’s handbook:

  The Ruling Class Urges Businesses To Mandate COVID Vaccines For Employment

  It’s like these rulers know they cannot do this alone.  The slaves have to help them and sadly, all too many are all too ready to help make this planet a permanent prison. This only gets worse though as more people start to figure out what’s really going on.

  McAuliffe called on “every Virginia employer” this week to mandate Covid-19 vaccines among all “eligible employees,” according to a report by RT.  

  “I have long said that the best way to defeat this deadly virus, keep our students in school and keep Virginia’s economy strong is by getting every eligible Virginian vaccinated as quickly as possible,” McAuliffe said in a public statement announcement, which followed the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially approving their first Covid-19 vaccine, a Pfizer-BioNTech two-dose vaccine, on Monday. –RT

  So now, private businesses are going to do the bidding of the state making sure some slaves get at least a little control over some of the other slaves.

  It’s still insanity to think that any business is still around after mandating people get injected with an experimental gene therapy drug that the manufacturers of face no liability whatsoever even if that drug kills them. Who owns you if you have no say as to what goes in your body? The ruling class has admitted they can’t force these shots on people…yet, but they can make their lives as slaves a living hell.

  “Make it hard for people to get on planes or go to movie theaters,” he said at a Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society (HIMSS) conference in Las Vegas.  Acknowledging that you can’t “force” vaccines by law, McAuliffe – recently endorsed by anti-Trump ‘Republican’ Bill Kristol – called on private businesses to be the ones to punish those who refuse to get inoculated. –RT

  But when have the rulers, who make the law ever cared about following it anyway? Laws are for the slaves, not those who own slaves.

  “We can’t force them. We’re not going door to door, but you make life difficult,” he said. 

  “If you’re going to come to the HIMSS conference, you got to be vaccinated.”

  This Twitter user summed it up perfectly:

  The cruelty is the point. https://t.co/5sjyADjxtu

  — Karol Markowicz (@karol) August 24, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  They want us to know they think they own us and many are still too far entrenched in the left vs. right paradigm lie to see it. It’s the ruling class against everyone else. Time to wake up and apply the critical thinking we have been honing for the past year and a half. This is only the beginning in many ways.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 20:30

• 24 Year Old Rape Victim In India Lights Herself On Fire After Alleging She Was Harassed By Police
  24 Year Old Rape Victim In India Lights Herself On Fire After Alleging She Was Harassed By Police

  A 24 year old Indian woman who alleged she was harassed by police “at the behest of an MP she had accused of rape” died this week after setting herself on fire. 

  The incident has caught the eye of the country, renewing criticism of how women are treated in India, according to a BBC report. 

  The woman did a Facebook live event on August 16 before her and a male friend poured gas on themselves and lit themselves on fire. They were both taken to the hospital with severe burns and both eventually died. 

  They had both traveled from the northern state of Uttar Pradesh to the capital, Delhi, to try and raise attention to their cause.

  The woman had formerly accused an MP from the regional Bahujan Samaj Party of raping her at her home. She filed a police report against him in May 2019 and he denied the accusation. He was subsequently arrested, however, and has been in jail for the past two years.

  

  The MP’s brother then struck back, filing a police report accusing the woman of fabricating the report. The report notes that “shoddy implementation of laws, especially in cases where the accused are influential men with money or political power, mean many victims fail to find justice.”

  In her livestream, she accused the MP of using his influence to harass her for speaking out. 

  She said in the video: “We have reached the destination they wanted us at. They made efforts for the past year and a half to push us to this point.”

  Her friend adds: “The authorities have been forcing us since November 2020 to die. We want all of you, the citizens of Uttar Pradesh and the country, to hear this. The step we are going to take is painful and frightening. We are also a little scared, but this fear is meaningless.”

  The BBC notes that at times on the video “her voice breaks or he chokes and their desperation is heartbreaking”. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 20:05

• New Report Finds US Has Spent Over $2.3 Trillion On Afghanistan War
  New Report Finds US Has Spent Over $2.3 Trillion On Afghanistan War

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  Brown University’s Costs of War project released an updated report Wednesday on US spending for the war in Afghanistan. The report found that since the 2001 invasion, Washington has sunk over $2.3 trillion into the war.

  The spending includes operations in both Afghanistan and Pakistan and is broken down into five categories. The biggest chunk is the Defense Department’s budget for the war, which is just over $1 trillion. The State Department’s war budget adds another $60 billion. War-related Increases to the Pentagon budget account for $433 billion.

  Estimated interest payments on war borrowing accounts for $532 billion, and spending on care for veterans of the war adds up to $233 billion. Costs of War did not account for future interest payments or future spending on lifelong care for veterans, so the total will still increase even after the US completes its military withdrawal from Afghanistan.

  

  Costs of War released its last Afghanistan update in April 2021. At the time, the project estimated the war cost $2.26 trillion. The project also tracks casualties of the war. As of April, Costs of War estimates up to 241,000 people were killed in the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

  Out of the 241,000 people killed, 71,344 were civilians, including 47,245 in Afghanistan and 24,099 in Pakistan. The numbers do not account for indirect deaths due to conditions caused by the war, like loss of access to food, disease, or infrastructure damage.

  The Taliban take over of Afghanistan and the swift collapse of the US-backed government shows that the massive amount of spending was for nothing, except to line the pockets of US defense contractors.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 19:40

• China Slams "Tool Of United States" Canada After Huawei CFO Hits 1000th Day Of "Unreasonable Detention"
  China Slams “Tool Of United States” Canada After Huawei CFO Hits 1000th Day Of “Unreasonable Detention”

  Just days after China upheld the death sentence for a Canadian national while sentencing another to a lengthy prison term, Beijing’s Foreign Ministry again complained that Canada is subjecting Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou (the daughter of the company’s billionaire founder) to “unreasonable detention” as Thursday marks her 1000th day in custody in British Columbia as she continues to wait for the results of her extradition hearing (the DoJ is demanding she be handed over to the US for prosecution related to alleged violations of international sanctions against Iran).

  Meng has been under house arrest for most of this period, leaving her and her family to bear the costs of her incarceration. 

  

  According to RT, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin noted the unfortunate anniversary in remarks to reporters and reiterated Beijing’s demand that the US drop the case against Meng (something President Trump memorably suggesting could be used as a bargaining chip during contentious trade negotiations with China.

  He also slammed Canada for doing the US’s dirty work, and asked that Canada stop being an accomplish to the political persecution of a Chinese citizen. Put another way, Wang slammed Canada for acting like the US’s b*tch. “Canada is nothing but a tool for the United States to exploit, suppress dissidents, and seek personal gain. There is no fairness and legitimacy,” he said.

  He continued, asking rhetorically “does the Canadian side still have a view of right and wrong” now that Meng’s “unreasonable detention” has reached its 1000th, day?

  The spokesman again claimed that the US’s primary motive for arresting Meng was to deliberately suppress Chinese companies and “retain American hegemony in the technology space.”

  He continued by saying that Beijing will never give in to any forms of political coercion or abuse of justice, adding that the Chinese people are firm believers in upholding the rule of law and are not afraid of other countries.

  Meng, who owns a swanky home in Vancouver, was detained in December 2018 after arriving at the Vancouver Airport while on her way to Mexico City. Last week, a two-and-a-half-year legal process leading up to the official extradition hearing came to an end, leaving Meng’s fate in the hands of a Canadian judge. .

  Whether he will take China’s threats into account in his judgment remains to be seen, but most believe it’s likely Meng’s extradition will be approved, leaving her to be handed over to the US, where she very likely will be imprisoned without bail due to her status as a flight risk.

  Of course, if she can somehow make it to a Chinese consulate, or embassy, she would be home free.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 19:15

• Tropical Storm Ida Could Rapidly Strengthen Into "Major Hurricane"
  Tropical Storm Ida Could Rapidly Strengthen Into “Major Hurricane”

  Update (1908ET): Tropical Depression Nine has strengthened into Tropical Storm Ida late Thursday afternoon and is expected to become a major hurricane once it reaches the US Gulf Coast late weekend or Monday, according to the National Hurricane Service (NHC). 

  Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft flew into the storm late afternoon and determined “that the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Ida,” NHC said. As of the 1720 ET update, the storm has maximum sustained winds of around 40 mph. 

  520 PM EDT Update: Air Force hurricane hunters find depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm #Ida. https://t.co/4LIsgbp8uT pic.twitter.com/WkPVKhOmKd

  — National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In a 1700 ET update, NHC said: “portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially along the coast of Louisiana,” could be swamped with “life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall” when the storm makes landfall some time late Sunday or Monday. 

  

  Ahead of the storm, energy companies are evacuating their workers from oil and natural gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Bristol Group has been using helicopters for the last few days to retrieve workers from natgas platforms.

  Statistically speaking, we should remind readers that the busiest part of the Atlantic hurricane season is already underway, as the tropics are awakening. 

  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters recently bumped up their forecast to 21 named storms this season. 

  * * * 

  AccuWeather forecasters released a weather note Thursday about a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea that has strengthened into Tropical Depression Nine and could become a major hurricane, possibly striking the US Gulf Coast Sunday/Monday. 

  The forecasters warned the storm could strike parts of the central Gulf Coast as a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) on Sunday evening or Monday. 

  We published a weather note on Wednesday outlining the same system to strengthen and landfall risks from Texas to Louisiana next week. 

  Fox 8 Meteorologist Zack Fradella told residents of South Louisiana to prepare for a major hurricane:

  “We have seen this before. Expect a Cat 3 at the very least,” he tweeted.

  On Thursday morning, the depression was moving at 13 mph and had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, and was approximately 115 miles south-southwest of Negril, Jamaica. The storm is expected to rapidly strengthen over the coming days when it takes a path over the central Gulf of Mexico. 

  “The sooner the system strengthens, the more likely it is to take a northwesterly track into the central Gulf of Mexico, rather than a westward track across Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and into the southwestern Gulf,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller explained.

  AccuWeather forecasters say the cone of uncertainty points to landfall from Texas to Louisiana to Mississippi and even Alabama. Across these areas are petroleum assets on land and offshore. 

  

  Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University tweeted Tropical Depression 9 is similar to Hurricane Michael in 2018 and Hurricane Laura in 2020, both slammed US Gulf Coast states. 

  Tropical Depression 9 has formed in the western Caribbean. The next name on the National #Hurricane Center’s list for the 2021 Atlantic season is Ida. The long-term (1991-2020) average 9th Atlantic named storm formation date is 15 September. pic.twitter.com/jm1CeA0Bhk

  — Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) August 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The next named storms of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will be Ida, Julian, and Kate. Readers should continue to monitor the storm through the weekend for updates on the landfall area. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 19:08

• Florida Surpasses 10,000 Monoclonal Antibody Treatments
  Florida Surpasses 10,000 Monoclonal Antibody Treatments

  Authored by Jannis Falkenstern via The Epoch Times,

  The state of Florida has administrered more than 10,000 doses of the monoclonal antibodies treatment at state-sponsored sites since since Florida began rolling out the program two weeks ago, the office of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) told The Epoch Times.

  

  Demand for the treatment is high and is expected to go higher as word gets out and new sites are continuing to open throughout the state, Christina Pushaw, the governor’s press secretary, said.

  The 10,000 doses administered at state-sponsored sites do not include treatment administrered at infusion centers at clinics and hospitals around the state.

  Baptist Health South Florida’s Dr. Oscar Hernandez says he refers five to six patients for the treatment every day.

  “The state is doing their part,” Hernandez said. “Doctors need to be more proactive in recommending the monoclonals to high-risk patients who test positive for COVID-19.”

  He said people need to know their options after they test positive for COVID-19. He recommends a fact sheet be distributed to patients at drive-through testing sites.

  COVID-19 is the disease caused by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, commonly known as the novel coronavirus.

  Fauci Touts Effectiveness of Monoclonal Antibodies

  Tuesday, the White House Chief Medical Adviser, Dr. Anthony Fauci touted the effectiveness of Monoclonal Antibodies. He estimatesd that the treatment could reduce hospitalization by up to 85 percent. Fauci encouraged anyone with suppressed immune systems as well as other mitigating factors take advantage of the treatment.

  “Bottom line is this is a very effective intervention for COVID-19. It is underutilized, and we recommend strongly that we utilize this to its fullest,” Fauci said at the press conference on Tuesday.

  Flagler County Health Department Administrator, Bob Snyder received his COVID-19 vaccine in January 2021, but because of an underlying health condition contracted COVID-19 about six weeks ago.

  Initially, he did not know what was wrong because the symptoms were so mild, he thought he was just “run down” from his busy work life.

  “It was sunny and 95 degrees and I’m freezing,” Snyder said. “I thought to myself, I’ve got to go to bed.”

  Snyder said it occurred to him that he may be one of the breakout cases he had read about and went to the local pharmacy and bought an in-home COVID-19 test. It was positive. That prompted Snyder to call a colleague who is a doctor. The doctor had two words for him: Monoclonal Antibodies.

  “I went to my local emergency room, and they gave me the Monoclonals by IV,” he said.

  “Within 24 hours I was 50 percent back to normal and by 72 hours I was 100 percent back.”

  Florida Resident Feels Blessed to Have Access to Treatment

  Broward County resident Renee Post sends her 70-year-old mother to a skilled nursing facility during the day while she works. The facility tested residents for COVID-19 every 36 hours.

  “I was picking my mother up from the skilled nursing facility and they wouldn’t let us leave until after my mother tested negative for COVID,” Post said.

  “Then the nurse came running out to my car and told us we couldn’t leave because my mom had tested positive for COVID.”

  Post said she recalled seeing a news report on the monoclonal antibodies and knew what she needed to do.

  “I had her transported to Broward Health and they were well organized and took her right away and in two hours she walked out,” she said.

  Post said that her mother had the “sniffles” the next day but otherwise you could not tell she had even been sick. Post said her mother is obese and suffers from a “myriad of health problems.”

  “She would have been another statistic if I had not taken her and known about the monoclonals,” she said.

  “I feel so blessed to have had access to this treatment for her and I know if we had waited, we would’ve had a different outcome.”

  Post said her mother was unvaccinated because her mother had a urinary tract infection and other underlying conditions.

  Post said she works primarily from home but has coworkers internationally who have been affected by the virus.

  “I see what it [the virus] can do,” she said. “I have lost 22 co-workers in India.”

  If she were to contract COVID-19, Post said she will seek the treatment for herself because she sees “what a miracle” the treatment is.

  This week DeSantis is opening more treatment sites, inckuding one at The Villages, a retirement community in central Florida.

  Pushaw, the governor’s press secretary, said of the 10,000 treatment landmark: “If even 50 percent of those people were saved from needing hospitalization, that is 5,000 patients who would otherwise have been hospitalized—a huge number, almost a third of our total COVID hospital census… This rollout is definitely saving lives.”

  The monoclonal antibodies can prevent hospitalization or death in high-risk patients with COVID-19 and is widely available in Florida. Individuals 12 years and older, who are high-risk and have contracted or been exposed to COVID-19, are eligible for this treatment. Treatment is free and vaccination status does not matter.

  Similarly in Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott set up sites around the state beginning November 2020 and used Bamlanivimab, the Eli Lilly & Company monoclonal antibody therapy. It was the first to garner FDA approval followed by Regeneron.

  When former President Donald Trump made a full recovery from COVID-19 after using monoclonals, he instructed the federal government to buy hundreds of thousands of doses of the two monoclonal treatment drugs and allocate supplies to the states, which would in turn determine distribution to hospitals and healthcare facilities. The doses were allocated to states and U.S. territories based on their share of hospitalized and infected patients.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 18:50

• SoftBank Hires Former Mossad Director As Vision Fund Looks To Expand Investment In Israeli Cybersecurity Names
  SoftBank Hires Former Mossad Director As Vision Fund Looks To Expand Investment In Israeli Cybersecurity Names

  As SoftBank’s Vision Fund considers investing further in Israel’s cybersecurity startups, the investment bank has hired a former Mossad Chief to help as an advisor.

  SoftBank hired Yossi Cohen, former director of the Mossad, as an advisor, Nikkei reported this week. The bank is “counting on Cohen’s extensive connections cultivated through his years leading the intelligence agency to identify promising technology companies”.

  Many of Israel’s new cybersecurity startups have ties to former military members.

  

  The turn toward Israel comes after many holdings in Chinese listed companies for the Vision Fund have plunged amidst a historic regulatory crackdown by the Chinese Communist Party.  

  The Tokyo based SoftBank also hopes to leverage Cohen’s experience in the Middle East as it seeks out more investors. 

  The fund has already started investing in Israel, investing in IoT startup Wiliot, who makes sensor tags that ” run on radio frequency energy from their surroundings instead of batteries”. The product has already been shipped for use in sectors like pharmaceuticals and retail logistics, the report notes.

  Another company to garner investment from the Vision Fund is AnyVision, which develops AI based facial recognition technology. 

  Wiliot raised $200 million from SoftBank and AnyVision raised $235 million.

  

  The Vision Fund has also considered buying an investment in eToro when it goes public on the NASDAQ this year via SPAC. 

  The fund is coming off of a major $4 billion paper loss on its investment in Chinese ride sharing company Didi after the Chinese government opened regulatory probes into the name just days after its U.S. listed initial public offering. 

  Israel has become a hotbed of new startup cybersecurity companies launched by former military members. The country’s dive into auto technology, with companies like Mobileye, has also spurred investment from automakers.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 18:30

• "Who Watches The Watchmen?" Infowars Case Raises Difficult Question For Both The Biden Admin & The Media
  “Who Watches The Watchmen?” Infowars Case Raises Difficult Question For Both The Biden Admin & The Media

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  “Who watches the watchmen”?

  

  That question from a federal judge this week came in a confrontation with the Justice Department over its targeting or charging journalists.

  At issue is the prosecution of a controversial host of a far-right website called Infowars.

  Owen Shroyer was charged with trespass and disorderly conduct during the Jan. 6th riot.

  

  However, Shroyer claims to have been present as a journalist while the Justice Department insists that he is an activist. When U.S. Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui asked for the basis of that distinction, the Biden Administration refused. The conflict exposes the problem with new regulations protecting journalists without clearly defining who is a journalist.

  Recently, news reports of the Biden Administration targeting journalists in criminal investigations led to congressional hearings and a new policy that Attorney General Merrick Garland promised would protect the journalists in the future. I testified before the House Judiciary Committee on how this was just the latest in such controversies extending from the Clinton to the Biden Administrations. As I wrote on these pages at the time, the most glaring flaw is the continued failure to define who is a journalist. Without such a definition, the new reform is as worthless as the long litany of prior reforms.

  Shroyer was arrested on charges of trespassing and disorderly conduct on the Capitol grounds. Prosecutors also alleged that he violated an agreement not to engage in such conduct after he was removed from a 2019 impeachment hearing for heckling a Democratic lawmaker. Shroyer was openly advocating for the protest and the underlying view that the election was stolen. He marched with a crowd toward the Capitol shouting, “We aren’t going to accept it!” However, he insists that he entered the Capitol to report on the events for Infowars.

  Under the Justice Department guidelines, the attorney general must approve the investigation or charging of a member of the news media with a crime. That led Judge Faruqui to ask the obvious question of whether the guidelines were followed or whether the Biden Administration simply refused to recognize Shroyer’s claim of journalistic status. The judge noted that “The events of January 6th were an attack on the foundation of our democracy. But this does not relieve the Department of Justice from following its own guidelines, written to preserve the very same democracy.”

  The Justice Department however simply defied the court and said the regulations were “scrupulously followed,” but refused to explain how the guidelines were satisfied. John Crabb, head of the Criminal Division of the U.S. attorney’s office in D.C., wrote “[s]uch inquiries could risk impeding frank and thoughtful internal deliberations within the Department about how best to ensure compliance with these enhanced protections for Members of the News Media.”

  Faruqi was not satisfied by such refusals and noted “the Department of Justice appears to believe that it is the sole enforcer of its regulations. That leaves the court to wonder who watches the watchmen.”

  The court’s inquiry highlighted the fact that the earlier pledge is worthless without some ability to review such decisions and, most importantly, some definition of those protected by it.

  It is not just the Justice Department that is discomforted by the question. The media itself is equally uneasy. As with the status of Julian Assange, the media would prefer not to address the distinction between Shroyer and other advocates in the media.

  Newspapers like the New York Times have rallied around journalists like Nikole Hanna-Jones who have declared “all journalism is advocacy.”  She is now going to teach journalism at Howard University and other academics are encouraging the abandonment of traditional views of objectively and neutrality in the media. Stanford journalism professor, Ted Glasser, insisted that journalism needed to “free itself from this notion of objectivity to develop a sense of social justice.” He rejected the notion that the journalism is based on objectivity and said that he views “journalists as activists because journalism at its best — and indeed history at its best — is all about morality.”  Thus, “journalists need to be overt and candid advocates for social justice, and it’s hard to do that under the constraints of objectivity.”

  Once you discard objectivity, the rest is easy. Schroyer was an “overt and candid advocate” but he was not deemed an “advocate for social justice.”  Thus, advocacy on sites like Infowars or Fox News is not real journalism, because it is false or “disinformation” while advocacy on sites like the Daily Kos or CNN is based on truth.

  Reporters not only now define what is true but can actively protest against those with opposing views. Recently, National Public Radio made it official and said that, for the first time, its journalists will be allowed to actively participate in protests. However, NPR will pick the causes that journalists can openly join. The rule allows reporters to become protesters for causes that support “the freedom and dignity of human beings, the rights of a free and independent press, the right to thrive in society without facing discrimination on the basis of race, ethnicity, gender, sexual identity, disability, or religion.” Two examples of worthy causes offered by NPR are Black Lives Matter protests and Gay pride protests.  It is doubtful that NPR would view pro-life or pro-police protests to fit that vague definition. Like the Justice Department, it reserves to itself to state which causes are worthy and which are unworthy.

  Advocacy in the media is now rampant. Indeed, the White House regularly promotes the views of media figures like MSNBC’s Joy Reid and the Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin who have been long criticized for their blind advocacy of pro-Democratic and anti-Republican causes. They would likely be protected under the Justice Department rules. Even when they are proven false in their assertions, they are treated as media advocates for the truth.

  Advocacy reporting is the new touchstone of the journalistically woke . . . unless, that advocacy is for conservative causes or groups. I do not agree with Shroyer any more than I agree with Reid. However, they are both engaged in what is now celebrated as advocacy journalism. It is bad enough to witness the demise of traditional journalism but the Shroyer case may foreshadow an even worse future where only certain forms of advocacy will be allowed. As with NPR, what is being advocated will determine who is still a journalist. That will bring the movement of advocacy journalism to its inevitable end, leaving only advocacy in the wake of journalism.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 18:10

• Biden Delivers Surreal Press Conference, Vows To Hunt Down Isis, Blames Trump
  Biden Delivers Surreal Press Conference, Vows To Hunt Down Isis, Blames Trump

  President Biden on Thursday vowed to “hunt down” the terrorists responsible for a spate of deadly bombings at the Kabul airport which left 12 US servicemembers dead and 15 wounded.

  

  “Know this; We will not forgive. We will not forget. We. will hunt you down and make you pay,” he said.

  In a surreal press conference that included bible quotes, a moment of silence, and blaming President Trump, Biden said he was open to sending US forces back into Afghanistan to assist with the withdrawal.

  “Whatever they need, if they need additional force, I will grant it,” he said, adding that the US military can target ISIS-K without “large scale military operations.”

  BIDEN: “To those who carried out this attack, as well as anyone who wishes America harm, know this: we will not forgive. We will not forget. We will hunt you down and make you pay.” pic.twitter.com/hVICiOBpN0

  — Benny (@bennyjohnson) August 26, 2021

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  Biden said he was in near ‘constant’ communication with military commanders via letter, and that he’d asked them to draw up plans to retaliate against the terrorist group (via carrier pigeon?).

  Of note, after reading his speech on the teleprompter, Biden said out loud “The first person I was instructed to call upon…” before taking questions.

  NOW – Biden: “The first person I was instructed to call on…”pic.twitter.com/eQszACiBLL

  — Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) August 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “They gave me a list here. The first person I was instructed to call on…”

  Amazing. And everyone goes along with this.

  — Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) August 26, 2021

  Trump also said he ‘bears responsibility for all that’s happened,’ before turning around and blaming Trump for the deal he ‘inherited.’ 

  JOE: “I bear responsibility for all that’s happened”

  *** Blames Trump moments later ***

  — Kayleigh McEnany (@kayleighmcenany) August 26, 2021

  He then gave Trump credit for the only reason there was relative peace in Afghanistan until now.

  Biden just admitted that the only reason there was relative peace in Afghanistan before he came along was because of President Trump.

  I’m sure that wasn’t on the teleprompter. pic.twitter.com/NEa35RfEbO

  — Amy Tarkanian (@MrsT106) August 26, 2021

  Then, towards the end of the presser, Biden said “I have another meeting, for real” – implying other ‘meetings’ haven’t been?

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “Yes I do” stand by decision to pull US troops out of Afghanistan, Biden says.

  He cuts reporters short saying, “I have another meeting, for real.” pic.twitter.com/muiMtBkuDI

  — Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) August 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Watch the full press conference below:

  *  *  *

  *BIDEN: AMERICA WILL NOT BE INTIMIDATED

  *BIDEN SAYS U.S. WILL HUNT DOWN THOSE BEHIND KABUL ATTACKS

  *BIDEN: ORDERS PLANS TO ATTACK ISIS LEADERSHIP, FACILITIES

  Watch: President Biden speaks following a series of deadly bombings outside of the Kabul airport in Afghanistan, in what the Washington Free Beacon notes is the deadliest day in Afghanistan for US troops in six years.

  *  *  *

  Summary:

  • New blasts rock Kabul
  • ISIS claims responsibility
  • Third explosion rocks Kabul
  • At least 11 US Marines, Navy Medic dead; Death toll exceeds 70
  • New threat reported at North Gate of airport
  • US officials report multiple US, civilian casualties
  • Suicide bomb explodes at Kabul airport gate, second explosion reported as car bomb
  • Taliban warned of potential terrorist threat
  • US State Dept warned Americans to “leave immediately” due to imminent threat

  Update (1546ET): A “very strong” new blast has been reported in Kabul – which the Taliban reports were due to US forces inside the Kabul airport ‘destroying their belongings.’

  BREAKING: Taliban spokesperson: “Several explosions were heard in Kabul in the evening. The blasts were carried out by US forces inside Kabul airport to destroy their belongings. Kabul residents are not worried.”

  — Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) August 26, 2021

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  Another big blast just reported in #Kabul, this one “very strong” says person who heard it. #Afghanistan #Kabulairport

  — Nawied Jabarkhyl (@NawiedJabarkhyl) August 26, 2021

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  Friends in Kabul hotels, elsewhere are reporting that the blast just heard shook their buildings.

  — Farrukh K. Pitafi (@FarrukhKPitafi) August 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Just felt the shockwave of very large explosion in Kabul. The whole house shook. #Afghanistan.

  — Marcus Yam 文火 (@yamphoto) August 26, 2021

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  Journalist Saad Mohseni reports that the most recent blast was a controlled detonation by the US military.

  last blast was a controlled detonation by the US military https://t.co/Yxy416ZJTN

  — Saad Mohseni (@saadmohseni) August 26, 2021

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  Former President Trump has responded in a statement, and sends his ‘deepest condolences to the families of our brilliant and brave Service Members…’ along with Melania.

  BREAKING: Former President Trump has issued a statement on the attacks in Kabul before Joe Biden. pic.twitter.com/ox2EzQ4RDL

  — Benny (@bennyjohnson) August 26, 2021

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  *  *  *

  Update (1530ET): ISIS has officially climaed responsibility for the Kabul bombings, according to NBC News’ Evan Kohlmann.

  ISIS: “The attacker was able to reach a distance of no less than five meters from the American forces, who were supervising the procedures for collecting documents from hundreds of translators and contractors in preparation for their evacuation from the country.”

  — Evan Kohlmann (@IntelTweet) August 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The ISIS statement accused the Taliban of being “in a partnership” with the U.S. military to evacuate “spies” and boasted that its bomber “managed to penetrate all the security measures imposed by the American forces and the Taliban militia in the capital Kabul.”

  — Evan Kohlmann (@IntelTweet) August 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  *12 SERVICE MEMBERS KILLED AND 15 WERE INJURED: MCKENZIE

  *U.S. CONTINUING TO EXECUTE THE MISSION, MCKENZIE SAYS

  *ISIS-K Responsible for Kabul Airport Attack, Marine Corps Gen. McKenzie Says

  *CENTCOM CHIEF MCKENZIE SAYS U.S. PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION AGAINST THOSE RESPONSIBLE FOR KABUL ATTACKS

  * * *

  Update (1433ET):

  At least eleven Marines and a Navy medic are among the dead following Thursday’s deadly blasts outside of the Kabul international airport in Afghanistan, according to Fox News‘ Edward Lawrence. The death toll exceeds 70 as of this update.

  FOX News has learned that the death toll of US Marines has risen to 10 in the suicide attack at the gate of the airport in Kabul. #Afghanistan #Marines

  — Edward Lawrence (@EdwardLawrence) August 26, 2021

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  Meanwhile, two new explosions have just been reported per Al Arabiya, bringing the total number to five.

  Two new explosions just now in #Kabul. https://t.co/8CpXtJ6cLJ

  — The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) August 26, 2021

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  *  *  *

  Update (1346ET):

  According to ABC News’ James Gordon Meek, there is a new threat of a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) at the North Gate of the Kabul airport.

  *** URGENT *** — New threat of VBIED at North Gate of Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA) in Kabul, US official inside the airport complex tells @ABC following complex IED attack at Abbey gate earlier today.

  — James Gordon Meek (@meekwire) August 26, 2021

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  *  *  *

  Update (1342ET): The Wall Street Journal is reporting that four US Marines are among the dozens killed in Thursday’s attack at the Kabul airport.

  The U.S. ambassador in Kabul has told staff there that four U.S. Marines were killed in an explosion at the city’s airport and three wounded, a U.S. official with knowledge of the briefing said. Two explosions ripped through crowds of Afghans trying to enter the airport on Thursday.

  At least three U.S. troops were injured, a U.S. official said. Witnesses reported multiple fatalities among the Afghans, many of whom were trying to enter the airport because they had assisted U.S.-led coalition efforts and feared persecution by the Taliban. -WSJ

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  

  The Pentagon is confirming that ‘a number’ of US service members were killed and injured.

  Statement on this morning’s attack at #HKIA: pic.twitter.com/Qb1DIAJQJU

  — John Kirby (@PentagonPresSec) August 26, 2021

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  The US State Department will not be holding a briefing today.

  *  *  *

  Update (1246ET): At least 43 have been killed and 130 injured in Thursday’s dual blasts near the Kabul airport. According to NYT reporter Fahim Abed, 60% of the wounded are in critical condition.

  Various #Kabul hospitals data show 43 killed & 130 injured in today’s #KabulAirport attack. Over 50 are critical.

  The death toll may rise.

  To understand the scale of the final number of casualties, see the picture. This is how pack the gates get these days.#Afghanistan pic.twitter.com/fBR1AsYym1

  — Bashir Ahmad Gwakh (@bashirgwakh) August 26, 2021

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  At least 40 dead bodies and 120 wounded transferred to Kabul hospitals, with 60% of wounded in the critical condition. All those killed and wounded are in critical condition.

  — Fahim Abed (@fahimabed) August 26, 2021

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  Taliban Spokesperson:

  “[We] strongly condemns the bombing of civilians in Kabul, which took place in an area where US forces are responsible for security … [We are] paying close attention to the security and protection of its people, and evil circles will be strictly stopped. https://t.co/4xEP65Hnjz

  — Alex Salvi (@alexsalvinews) August 26, 2021

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  *  *  *

  Update (1145ET):

  According to Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid, 52 people have been wounded in both explosions.

  TOLO NEWS: “Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid confirmed that 52 people had been wounded in two explosions near Kabul airport. He added that the blast also caused casualties, but exact figures are not available.” https://t.co/aw2t46g8a0

  — Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) August 26, 2021

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  US officials believe ‘ISIS-K’ was behind the attack.

  *  *  *

  NEW: Source briefed on the situation in Kabul tells me “hundreds of ISIS-K in the vicinity, attacks likely to continue”

  — Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) August 26, 2021

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  Update (1102ET):

  According to Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby, there have been multiple US and civilian casualties. Kirby also confirmed the second explosion:

  “We can confirm that the explosion at the Abbey Gate was the result of a complex attack that resulted in a number of US & civilian casualties. We can also confirm at least one other explosion at or near the Baron Hotel, a short distance from Abbey Gate. We will continue to update.”

  We can confirm that the explosion at the Abbey Gate was the result of a complex attack that resulted in a number of US & civilian casualties. We can also confirm at least one other explosion at or near the Baron Hotel, a short distance from Abbey Gate. We will continue to update.

  — John Kirby (@PentagonPresSec) August 26, 2021

  According to reports, the Kabul ER says they’re treating more than 30 people, while six died en route to the hospital.

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  NEW: Video footage shows the immediate aftermath of an explosion near Kabul airport in Afghanistan, with the sound of gunfire heard in the background. pic.twitter.com/rKALbfig2E

  — Matthew Keys (@MatthewKeysLive) August 26, 2021

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  NEW: Sky News reporting first explosion near Kabul airport believed to be the work of a suicide bomber; second explosion was a car bomb.

  — Matthew Keys (@MatthewKeysLive) August 26, 2021

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  Map of reported bombing site at Kabul Airport pic.twitter.com/0kmk28dflC

  — Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) August 26, 2021

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  Reminder:

  Remember: every example of violence Donald Trump decries has happened on his watch. Under his leadership. During his presidency.

  — Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) August 28, 2020

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  *  *  *

  Update (1040ET): According to Politico, ISIS is responsible for the blast outside the Kabul airport, which set off a firefight at Abbey Gate – where some 5,000 Afghans and possibly some Americans sought access to the airport.

  An ISIS suicide bomber was responsible for the explosion, a U.S. official and a person familiar with the situation told POLITICO.

  The attack occurred just outside Abbey gate, where U.S. personnel until recently welcomed American citizens to board evacuation flights, according to four sources with knowledge of the situation.

  The news comes just hours after defense officials began warning about an increased terrorist threat from the Islamic State’s branch in Afghanistan. Defense officials briefed lawmakers on Tuesday about the new threat targeting airport gates and military commercial aircraft evacuating people from Kabul, POLITICO first reported.

  An ISIS suicide bomber was responsible for the explosion outside the Kabul airport, per a U.S. official and a source.

  This comes just hours after officials began warning about an increased ISIS threat in Afghanistan. https://t.co/WcwyOqOQLL

  — POLITICO (@politico) August 26, 2021

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  US officials have described the suicide bombing as a “complex attack.”

  https://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=6269604567001&w=466&h=263Watch the latest video at foxnews.com

  Graphic:

  #GRAPHIC: Horrific aftermath following terror attack at the Kabul airport. pic.twitter.com/EYm7lN4Hdg

  — Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) August 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=6269604567001&w=466&h=263Watch the latest video at foxnews.com

  *  *  *

  Update (1031ET): Fox News is reporting a second explosion in Kabul near the airport, by a hotel where Americans were gathering for rescue operations.

  FoxNews is now reporting a second explosion at Kabul airport. pic.twitter.com/FszzzZ4cq0

  — For America (@ForAmerica) August 26, 2021

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  Sky News is reporting the death toll at 13, which includes children.

  Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reporting the Kabul airport explosion happened in an area where as many as 2,000 people were gathered. https://t.co/OTZDPoBHB9

  — Matthew Keys (@MatthewKeysLive) August 26, 2021

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  Sources who spoke with a Sky News correspondent in Afghanistan said the explosion took place near a checkpoint used by British and American forces to screen visa holders and refugees attempting to gain access to Kabul airport.

  — Matthew Keys (@MatthewKeysLive) August 26, 2021

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  *  *  *

  Update (1022ET): Bloomberg reports that at least three US troops have been injured, per US officials.

  Meanwhile, the UK government has issued a statement, writing “We are working urgently to establish what has happened and its impact on the ongoing evacuation effort.”

  #UK government statement on #Kabul incident: pic.twitter.com/guIbHXbhl2

  — Barzan Sadiq (@BarzanSadiq) August 26, 2021

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  Meanwhile, the US State Department has issued a warning to Americans not to travel to the airport, “and avoid airport gates at this time.”

  Security alert from US Embassy Kabul pic.twitter.com/asgLkugLj0

  — Dion Nissenbaum (@DionNissenbaum) August 26, 2021

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  *  *  *

  Update (1010ET): According to reports from Reuters, there have been at least three casualties in the explosion which appears to have happened near Baron Hotel across from Kabul airport (the hotel is largely by Brits). WSJ reporter Dion Nussenbaum adds that Marines have been injured but details remain scant.

  US sources say US Marines have been injured in the Kabul explosion, but details are still scant.

  — Dion Nissenbaum (@DionNissenbaum) August 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  https://t.co/CTqxwBpIYn this image is circulating social media and news accounts, it is old and is not related to todays incident. pic.twitter.com/2zQCdk9TIQ

  — Aurora Intel (@AuroraIntel) August 26, 2021

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  And here is ABC News’ Martha Raddatz with the painfully obvious:

  “This is truly a nightmare scenario,” @MarthaRaddatz says amid explosion outside Kabul airport.

  LIVE UPDATES: https://t.co/7t8TzSjR42 pic.twitter.com/HRjAn1sVBn

  — ABC News (@ABC) August 26, 2021

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  And the moment of the explosion:

  

  * * *

  Update (0945ET): It appears, for once, the intelligence agencies were right (or Taliban warnings that is). The Pentagon has just confirmed…

  We can confirm an explosion outside Kabul airport. Casualties are unclear at this time. We will provide additional details when we can.

  — John Kirby (@PentagonPresSec) August 26, 2021

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  …that there has been a large explosion at Abbey Gate at the Kabul Airport.

  JUST IN: Sources tell @laraseligman, @alexbward and me that there has been a large explosion at Abbey Gate at the Kabul airport.

  — Daniel Lippman (@dlippman) August 26, 2021

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  Local reports also note gunfire is being heard around the airport. Some purported images of the aftermath have been shown on social media (not confirmed)…

  

  

  U.S. official tells Reuters that initial report is that the explosion outside Kabul airport was caused by a suicide bombing.

  

  A heavily injured person outside #Kabul airport. #Tragedy pic.twitter.com/UGN6beoT2Z

  — Barzan Sadiq (@BarzanSadiq) August 26, 2021

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  Who could have seen this coming?

  Explosions to follow https://t.co/EzHAION72h

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 24, 2021

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  Of course, we assume President Biden has a ‘contingency plan’ for this.

  *  *  *

  Update (0745ET): A spokesman for the Taliban has just revealed to the Russian press that the Taliban warned the west about the supposedly “imminent” ISIS threat lurking outside the Kabul airport.

  Here’s more from RT, the outlet that broke the story.

  Zabihullah Mujahid, who holds the office of Information Minister in the Taliban-installed government in Afghanistan, told the Russian media that his organization was the source of the information. The threat was not specific, he said in an interview, but the plan was to provoke chaos and violence at the airport and hurt the Taliban’s reputation.

  “Over the last 20 years we have learned things and changed,” the official said in the interview. “We want to prove that we are not what anti-Taliban propaganda has portrayed us to be. We want to show that to the world.”

  So, we’re just taking the Taliban at their word now? Sounds reasonable enough…

  * * *

  Once again, the US, UK and France are warning that ISIS might carry out an attack – perhaps a suicide bombing – at the Kabul airport to target crowds of departing westerners, and have thus halted evacuations once again on Thursday. This is particularly troubling news for more than 1,000 Americans who have yet to be evacuated, as well as the thousands of Afghans with special immigrant visas who will likely be left behind to face the wrath of the Taliban.

  According to the NYT, several European nations announced on Thursday that they planned to halt their evacuations from Kabul airport following reports of the ISIS threat, despite the looming Aug. 31 deadline (which the Taliban have insisted must be met or the west will face “consequences). President Biden has reportedly been briefed on the matter.

  

  Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark all said they would no longer be able to facilitate airlifts from the Hamid Karzai International Airport, which continues to be surrounded by crowds of thousands of desperate Afghans (and foreigners) struggling to get through. The US embassy warned Americans on Wednesday to “leave immediately,” and stay away from the airport.

  The UK and Australia issued similar warnings, with Australians describing an “ongoing and very high threat of terrorist attack”.

  The warnings came as the last of the estimated 1.5K Americans and countless other foreigners still in Afghanistan scramble to board the last flights out of the country before the US withdrawal is officially complete on Aug. 31. Thousands of Afghan nationals are camped outside the perimeter of the airport in desperate attempts to escape on the last flights out, some with the special visas allowing them to leave.

  Then again, we can’t help but wonder: is this “threat” actually credible? Or merely an excuse for Biden & Co. when they inevitably fail to get everybody out in time.

  A senior U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity about confidential assessments, told the NYT that the US is monitoring a “specific” and “credible” ISIS threat. Apparently, ISIS has carried out dozens of attacks in Afghanistan in recent years (and a regional ISIS leader was one of the few prisoners executed by the Taliban following their takeover).

  British armed forces minister James Heappey told the BBC radio that intelligence of a suicide bombing by ISIS had become “much firmer” since the weekend.

  “I can’t stress the desperation of the situation enough. The threat is credible, it is imminent, it is lethal. We wouldn’t be saying this if we weren’t genuinely concerned about offering Islamic State a target that is just unimaginable,” Heappey said.

  Australia also issued a warning for people to stay away from the airport while Belgium ended its evacuation operations because of the danger of attack. The Dutch government also issued a warning and said it expected to carry out its last evacuation flight on Thursday, leaving behind some who are eligible to travel to the Netherlands.

  But despite the warnings, a Western diplomat in Kabul told Reuters that the areas outside the airport gates remained “incredibly crowded”.

  Even the Taliban are reportedly worried about the prospect of an ISIS attack.

  “Our guards are also risking their lives at Kabul airport, they face a threat too from the Islamic State group,” said a Taliban official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

  Civil aviation official Ahmedullah Rafiqzai told Reuters that people continued to crowd around the gates despite the attack warnings because “[p]eople don’t want to move, it’s their determination to leave this country that they are not scared to even die.”

  An attack would put the remaining western forces in Afghanistan in a difficult position, since they’re not exactly prepared to attack or defend anything, or anyone.

  “Western forces, under no circumstances, want to be in a position to launch an offensive or a defensive attack against anyone,” the diplomat added.

  11 days have passed since the Taliban swept into Kabul, and in that time, the US and its allies have mounted one of the biggest air evacuations in history, bringing out more than 88K people, including 19K on Tuesday alone, out of the country. The American military says planes are taking off roughly every 39 minutes on average.

  And as the evacuation winds down, western reporters have continued to report on rumors out of Panjshir, a mountainous district not far from Kabul where the last remnants of Taliban opposition have gathered. The Taliban claim their fighters are working on getting the situation under control, but on Thursday, the Huffington Post published a story about the “National Resistance Front” – a group made up of former Afghan National forces hiding out in the mountains.

  At least 1,000 displaced people are currently hiding in the area. But it’s not clear how many soldiers are there to actually fight the Taliban, which already has 75K fighters.

  The resistance is reportedly being led by Ahmad Massoud, son of the late Ahmad Shah Massoud, the famous guerrilla commander who helped fight off the Soviets.

  Massoud is so brazen, he published an op-ed in the Washington Post last week calling for aid to the mujahideen resisting the Taliban.

  Of course, Americans of a certain age likely remember how well arming the last two rounds of anti-government resistance fighters worked out for the US.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 17:54

• Beijing Claims Its Plans To "Redistribute Wealth" Won't Involve "Killing The Rich"
  Beijing Claims Its Plans To “Redistribute Wealth” Won’t Involve “Killing The Rich”

  Earlier this month, luxury goods stocks tumbled on reports that President Xi planned to shift the focus of a wide-ranging government crackdown on the economy and China’s wealthiest businessmen (like Jack Ma, who briefly disappeared after criticizing China’s regulations for allegedly “stifling innovation”). Instead of cracking down on a different industry, like video games, or private educational products, President Xi and the rest of the CCP’s most-senior leaders said they were planning a good ol’ fashioned “redistribution of wealth” to help “expand the middle class” and get rid of all these pesky billionaires (all of whom succeeded with at least the tacit support of the CCP).

  

  Investors anxiously waiting for more details on the CCP’s plans received another hint on Thursday, when Caixin, a Chinese state-controlled business media outlet, reported that President Xi had “stressed that common prosperity is an essential requirement of socialism” and called for “its advancement” while also “pursuing high-quality development” during the Aug. 17 meeting of the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs.

  Caixin also explained how the CCP is already implementing President Xi’s vision for a more egalitarian (financially speaking, at least) society. The recent changes are related to school districts, after-school tutoring, property tax pilot programs and an expansion of anti-trust enforcement and other measures to tackle “reckless capitalism”.

  But for investors worried about the future of China’s economy should President Xi reverse course and adopt more of the failed policies of Chairman Mao Zedong, another Chinese CCP official declared Thursday that this new drive for “common prosperity” doesn’t mean “killing the rich to help the poor” (like the Communists tried to do during the Cultural Revolution).

  China must also “guard against falling into the trap of welfarism,” said Han Wenxiu, an economic regulator-bureaucrat.

  Those who “get rich first” should help those behind, but hard work should be encouraged, he said.

  “We cannot wait for help, rely on others for help, or beg for help. We cannot support layabouts.”

  As Reuters explains (for the socialism-loving Millennials and Zoomers who have no memory of the Communist era), market-economy-based reforms enacted by China four decades ago helped unleashed China’s massive economic capacity and enabled the accumulation of vast personal wealth, with hundreds of billionaires minted in the still avowedly socialist country, deepening inequality, especially between urban and rural areas, but lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty at the same time.

  Because of the rapid growth, China is facing a wealth inequality crisis not unlike the problems of inequality plaguing the US and Europe.

  The high cost of urban living has contributed to a sharp slowdown in births, prompting China this year to allow families to have up to three children instead of two. Still, slowing economic growth and cutthroat competition have also prompted some young urbanites to embrace a passive attitude known as “lying flat”.

  One economist from a European investment bank said corporations would likely take a bigger role as China continues its push for greater equality.

  “More big corporations are going to set up social responsibility funds if they have yet to do so, and the size of donations from them should increase,” Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at ING, said in a note this week.

  “Corporates need to take bigger steps to enhance their corporate governance and social responsibility. They need to work to get ahead of the regulators.”

  Certain provinces have also set goals for improving the average annual income for all residents by 2025.

  Circling back to the Caixin report cited above, the lengthy text seeks to explain the “common prosperity” rooted in China’s “top-level design and guiding policies and runs through the country’s economic development trajectory.”

  

  After the Aug. 17 meeting, the CCP leadership decided to take a hands-off approach, leaving each area to decide its own path relevant to its specific conditions.

  It also explained away how China’s focus on efficiency has been a boon for its economy – but now needs to be brought back into balance.

  Looking back at recent history, we can see a change of focus between efficiency and fairness. The absolute fairness in China before 1978 resulted in low efficiency and underdevelopment. Afterward, during the reform and opening up period, efficiency became the priority and a key theme of the time, with due consideration given to fairness. Efficiency relies on incentives. Those who make the pie bigger will get a larger share. The outcome we see today is 40 years of the remarkable economic boom that made China the second-largest economy in the world and its per-capita income has reached the level of upper middle-income countries.

  However, during this process, rural-urban, regional and industrial gaps widened. The Gini coefficient also hit a record high.

  Five factors have contributed to these increased disparities.

  1. Systemic restrictions on the factor market — land, labor, etc. — have led to price distortion for production factors.

  2. The development strategy that favored East China at the beginning of China’s reform and opening-up caused uneven regional capital allocation.

  3. The GDP growth targets and tax-sharing system compelled local authorities to prioritize economic growth over people’s livelihood and capital over labor.

  4. A flawed tax policy limited the effect of income redistribution.

  5. An imperfect financial market failed to provide different income groups with equal access to credit.

  An exploration of the conditions driving inequality quickly reveals that urban populations simply have more economic opportunity.

  

  To correct this, it’s critical to deepen the reform of the income distribution system and correctly handle the relationship between efficiency and equity.

  These changes will start in southeastern China, which is sort of like China’s Atlantic Coast (in the sense that it’s where a large portion of the country’s wealth is concentrated).

  

  Beijing will encourage local authorities to to impose a consumption tax, and other measures, to siphon off more income from the wealthiest residents in the area and use that money to finance more services for more residents.

  Sounds like a ‘worker’s paradise’ to us…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 17:51

• Labor Shortages: "We May Be Closer To The Brick Wall Than Anticipated"
  Labor Shortages: “We May Be Closer To The Brick Wall Than Anticipated”

  By Philip Marey, senior US strategist at Rabobank

  Labor shortages: temporary or permanent?

  Summary 

  • While Republicans and Democrats are pointing to different causes for the temporary labor shortages, the empirical evidence suggests that both unemployment benefits and child care considerations are playing a role. However, these temporary effects should fade during the course of September.

  • More importantly, a permanent labor shortage is caused by retirement. This means that we should not expect a recovery of the participation rate to pre-COVID levels.

  • As the temporary labor shortages disappear and the permanent labor shortages become visible, the Fed may find there is less slack in the labor market than anticipated. Consequently, the Fed may have to make an additional upward shift in the dot plot in the coming months.

  Introduction

  Although employment is still well below pre-COVID levels (about 5.7 million in July, Figure 1), employers are having a difficult time filling their vacancies. The ratio of unemployed persons to job openings, a measure of labor market looseness, fell to 0.94 in June, comparable to levels in 2018 (Figure 2), when the Fed accelerated the hiking cycle to four hikes in one year, because it mistakenly saw high inflation around the corner This paradox, a shortfall in employment and an apparent labor shortage, has been attributed to a number of factors causing a temporary labor shortage. Three main causes are often being mentioned: the enhanced federal unemployment benefits from the American Rescue Plan, fear of COVID, and lack of child care.

  

  View from the right: Unemployment benefits

  Obviously the first cause is most often mentioned by Republicans, so it should come as no surprise that many red states are withdrawing from the enhanced federal unemployment benefits program. At present, almost half of the states has removed the $300 weekly enhancement. The argument is that due to these enhanced benefits it is more attractive to be unemployed than to accept, or stay in, a job. However, a static comparison between wages and unemployment benefits in a specific month can be misleading. The decision to accept or leave a job requires a longer-term horizon, especially in a depressed labor market. Expected future cashflows as well as the probability of getting a job offer in the future will have to be considered. This may explain why several empirical studies (Bartik et al. 2020, Scott & Finamor, 2020 and Petrosky-Nadeau, 2020) on the $600 unemployment benefit from the CARES Act fail to find any significant impact of enhanced unemployment benefits on job losses or rehiring. A more recent study (Petrosky-Nadeau & Valletta, 2021) does find a “small but likely noticeable” effect: 1 out of 7 job offers would be rejected because of the $300 enhanced unemployment benefits in 2021. On balance, the empirical evidence suggests that the current program of $300 enhanced benefits does make a modest contribution to the labor shortage, but it does not seem to be the only factor. What’s more, this effect should disappear once the benefits expire after September 6. Nevertheless, for states with relatively low unemployment rates it does make sense to opt out of the enhanced federal benefits program.

  View from the left: COVID and child care

  As we shift to the left side of the political spectrum, fear of COVID and lack of child care are increasingly given as explanations for the current labor bottlenecks. As we have pointed out earlier, the Democrats want to make the child tax credit enhancements in the American Rescue Plan permanent. However, their claim seems to be supported by the data. First of all, up to a third of the US workforce has children aged 14 or younger in the household (Dingel et al. 2020). This means that the reopening of schools and daycare centers could be an important bottleneck for labor supply. Especially, the participation of women in the labor market could be severely affected. In fact, there is empirical evidence (Lofton et al., 2020) that the labor supply of mothers was less depressed in states that reported less disruption to schooling. Meanwhile, it appears that businesses are reopening at a faster pace than schools. By the end of this past school year, only 53% of schools had fully reopened for in-person instruction (Ferren, 2021).

  Taking the views from the right and the left together, there is empirical evidence there is a temporary labor shortage caused by the phase of the COVID crisis and fiscal policy. Consequently, once COVID subsides, schools have reopened and enhanced federal benefits have expired, labor supply is likely to rebound and we should be back to an overall looser labor market, apart from scarcity in certain specific occupations.

  Structural decline in participation?

  However, while part of the decline in labor participation (Figure 3) can be explained by child care considerations, fear of COVID and enhanced unemployment benefits, there is also a more permanent factor reducing participation: retirement. According to calculations made by the Dallas Fed (Kaplan et al. 2021) a few months ago, in addition to 4.1 million joining the unemployed since February 2020 there were 4.4 million not currently actively looking for work: 1.3 million because of caregiving and 2.6 million because of retirement. The caregivers may largely return when schools reopen, but how many retirees will return to the labor market? After all, it appears that many already delayed retirement during the tight labor market of 2018-2019. These figures suggest that retirement is playing a larger role than child care, which also means that the permanent decline in participation may be larger than many are now thinking.

  

  False sense of slack

  This also means that adjusting unemployment rates for lost participation is misleading. For example, Powell (February 10, 2021) has been referring to an alternative unemployment rate – based on the pre-COVID19 participation rate – being much higher than the official unemployment rate. This measure would suggest that there is still a lot of slack in the labor market. However, if a substantial fraction of the labor force outflow is not going to come back, slack is actually much smaller than suggested by a fixed participation unemployment rate. Looking at this measure will give the FOMC a false sense of slack that could cause the Committee to react too slowly to a tightening labor market.

  Conclusion

  Next month should be crucial for the labor market as temporary labor shortages are expected to disappear, and more permanent labor shortages will become visible.

  For the Fed a temporary labor shortage means that upcoming monetary policy decisions – such as giving signals about tapering – will have to be made in a noisy environment where data are being distorted. We called this the “data fog” in Early Warning Signal in a Noisy Environment. Employment growth is temporarily slowed down, but should accelerate once the causes of the temporary labor shortage fade.

  However, once we come out of the data fog, we may be closer to the brick wall than anticipated. If there is also a permanent component to the decline in labor participation, then slack in the labor market is smaller than suggested by the downdraft in the employment level (Figure 1). For the FOMC, the smaller the shortfall in employment the earlier they may want to hike. The higher-than-expected inflation readings in recent months have already led to an upward shift in the dot plot, indicating that the FOMC now expects to hike twice in 2023, instead of waiting until 2024. If more of the “temporary” labor shortage turns out to be permanent, the FOMC may be forced to shift its first hike to 2022.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 17:30

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• Taliban Ask Turkey For Help To Run Chaotic Kabul Airport
  Taliban Ask Turkey For Help To Run Chaotic Kabul Airport

  The chaotic airport is currently the locus of unprecedented chaos (not to mention a makeshift, and temporary, US embassy), but Afghanistan’s new rulers, the Taliban, are already looking beyond Aug 31 when the US is scheduled to evacuate its domestic presence, and according to Reuters they have asked Turkey for “technical help” to run the Kabul airport even as they demand that Ankara’s military also withdraw fully by the end-August deadline.

  

  The conditional request by the Islamist Taliban leaves Ankara – a current NATO member – with a difficult decision over whether to accept a hazardous job, a Reuters source said.

  The mainly Muslim Turkey was part of a NATO mission in Afghanistan and still has hundreds of troops at Kabul airport. The officials say they are ready to withdraw at short notice. But President Tayyip Erdogan’s government has said for months that it could keep a presence at the airport if requested.

  “The Taliban have made a request for technical support in running Kabul airport,” a senior Turkish official confirmed, adding however that the Taliban demand for all Turkish troops to leave would complicate any prospective mission. After the Taliban seized control of the country Turkey offered technical and security assistance at the airport.

  “Ensuring the safety of workers without the Turkish Armed Forces is a risky job,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Talks with the Taliban on the issue were ongoing and, in the meantime, preparations for a troop withdrawal had been completed, he said.

  Reuters notes that it was unclear whether Turkey would agree to give technical assistance if its troops were not there to provide security. Another Turkish official said a final decision would be made by the Aug. 31 deadline for foreign forces to leave the country and end a 20-year military involvement in Afghanistan.

  Keeping the airport open after foreign forces hand over control is vital not just for Afghanistan to stay connected to the world but also to maintain aid supplies and operations. “It’s going to be a critical lifeline for the humanitarian action in Afghanistan,” Mary Ellen McGroarty, World Food Programme director in Afghanistan, said last week.

  That said, even if the Taliban manage to keep the airport open – it’s not immediately clear just how vibrant the Afghani tourism industry will be for the foreseeable future – the country faces a catastrophic humanitarian crisis, not to mention capital controls, economic collapse, hyperinflation, and a defunct currency. Since Turkey has experience with all of these, maybe Erdogan should just take over as lead economic advisor to the country.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 02:45

• Will Ukraine Face The Same Abandonment After US Exit From Afghanistan?
  Will Ukraine Face The Same Abandonment After US Exit From Afghanistan?

  Authored by Johanna Ross via Southfront.org,

  Ukraine is ‘almost a member of the EU’ and ‘almost a member of NATO’ President Zelensky proudly declared of late. 

  The word ‘almost’ is pertinent here, because seven years after the Maidan revolution, Ukraine is still a substandard democracy, and far from reaching the basic democratic standards required for entry to either of these blocs.

  

  America is good at making promises but not so good at keeping them.

  Indeed Ukraine is ‘almost’ in so many senses of the word. The President himself ‘almost’ speaks Ukrainian (Russian is his native tongue). Ukraine is ‘almost’ a reliable geopolitical partner for Europe and the US. Most importantly, the country is ‘almost’ a democracy but sadly lacking the freedom of speech and language rights which a liberatarian state would possess.

  In fact, since the 2014 Maidan revolution, the western-backed coup which saw the Yanukovych government toppled, Ukraine has fallen under a dark cloud. Far from the bright, positive European future promised by proponents of Maidan, Ukraine has been drenched in ethnic conflict as the authorities have attempted to de-Russify the country and erase any sign of Russianness.

  Those opposed to the Maidan revolution of 2013 predicted this would happen. Rumours began to spread at the time that Ukrainian nationalists would threaten the rights of ethnic Russians and in particular their right to speak in their native tongue, but these fears were not acknowledged by the West, and went unreported in the western media. Instead, reports of neo-Nazis in Ukraine and extreme nationalism were dismissed as Russian propaganda. But facts cannot be ignored and the fact remains that a law was passed in 2019 to force all Ukrainian citizens to speak Ukrainian, despite a third of Ukranians stating that Russian is their native language.

  This crackdown on speakers of Russian language is exactly the type of ethnocultural cleansing that provoked the people of Crimea and East Ukraine to rise up against the Ukrainian authorities, leading to the reunification of Crimea with Russia and the formation of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. Not that this is recognised at all in the West, which has insisted and continues to insist that only Russia is to blame for the ethnic and territorial divisions which have occurred since the coup. The oldest strategy in the book – the  ‘divide and rule’ tactic – has been very effective in Ukraine, and as usual with western foreign policy interventions, it is the ordinary people of these occupied nations that suffer from the geopolitical games being directed from those seated in Washington.

  And yet, despite all the grand ideas for Ukraine promised by western politicians over the years, the country continues to crumble and fall into an abyss of economic recession and social turmoil. Instead of receiving robust support from the US and EU, it has become increasingly isolated, particularly since the successful Putin-Biden summit. The military buildup in East Ukraine in May earlier this year which provoked Russia to gather its forces along the border, was a real test of just how far Washington was prepared to go to defend Ukraine: not far at all.

  This change in attitude was further emphasised by the US’ changed rhetoric on Nord Stream 2, and more recently by Angela Merkel’s visit to Moscow and Kiev. Lambasted by the Ukrainian media, Angela Merkel has now become something of a bête noire for Zelensky as she, as usual, pursues Germany’s national interest with the completion of Nord Stream 2. Many in the anti-Russian commentariat have criticised Merkel’s positive meeting with Putin with some pointing out that not only did she visit Russia before Ukraine, but also has no plans to accept Kiev’s invitations to Ukrainian Independence Day celebrations or attend the Crimean Platform event which took place on Monday (a gathering aimed at reuniting Crimea with Ukraine).

  If Kiev had any doubts about the nature of Washington’s commitment to Ukraine, all it has to do is look at the way it has abandoned Afghanistan in recent days. When it no longer becomes viable, the US, like any corporate giant, shuts up shop. Even after 20 years of fighting and fine words of turning Afghanistan into a flourishing democracy, when it no longer suited them, the Americans abruptly turned their back on the country and the many citizens who collaborated with them. It doesn’t bode well for Ukraine as a vassal state of the US.

  Ukraine’s current position is untenable. A prosperous, optimistic, free, democratic country cannot be built on ethnic division, russophobia, fascism, and the slogan ‘death to the enemy’. The purging of pro-Russian politicians, the shutting down of opposition media, the interrogation of artists by the security services, are all signs that the country is locked in an authoritarian regime, and one which the US supports. And yet, just like that, Ukraine could also be abandoned in a flash, like Afghanistan, left buried under the pile of rubble the US helped to create. It will take time, but Ukraine’s only hope is to accept its shared cultural heritage with Russia, and recognise the rights of its Russian-speaking citizens in order to resolve the civil war. It can reject its historical ties with Russia, but a nation which denies its past has no future.

  *  *  *

  You can follow the author on Twitter.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/26/2021 – 02:00

• Vaccine Mandates & The "Great Reset"
  Vaccine Mandates & The “Great Reset”

  Authored by Philipp Bagus via The Mises Institute,

  Pressure on the unvaccinated grows. While the vaccinated in some countries are getting back some of their freedoms taken away by the covid interventions, the unvaccinated are not so well off. They are being targeted for discrimination. Access to public spaces and traveling is being made more difficult for them. In some countries there is even mandatory vaccination for some professions.

  But why is the vaccination campaign so important to governments that they are increasing the pressure to such an extent? And who has an interest in the global vaccination campaign?

  To answer these questions, it is necessary to analyze the prevalent vaccination narrative and ask who benefits from it.

  In doing so, the alliance of interests between the state, the media, the pharmaceutical industry, and supranational institutions must be addressed.

  

  Let us start with the pharmaceutical industry.

  It has an obvious economic interest in the vaccination campaign. It makes enormous profits from widespread vaccination.

  What about the state?

  In the covid-19 crisis, politicians have systematically amplified fear and hysteria. This was no accident and is unsurprising, for the state builds its raison d’être on the argument that it protects the population from internal and external dangers. The state is built upon fear. The narrative is that without the help of the state, the citizen would be defenseless against hunger, poverty, accidents, war, terrorism, disease, natural disasters, and pandemics. It is, therefore, in the state’s interest to instill fear of possible dangers, which it then pretends to resolve, expanding its power in the process. A relatively recent example is the restriction of civil liberties in the US in response to the threat of terrorism after the 9-11 attacks and the second Iraq war. Similarly, it was in the interest of governments to purposefully instill fear and portray covid-19 as a unique killer virus in order to expand state power to an extent unknown in peacetime at the expense of citizens’ fundamental rights.

  When the corona crisis started and not much was known about the virus’s potential danger politicians were faced with an asymmetric payoff. If politicians underestimate a danger and do not react, they are held responsible for the underestimation. They lose elections and power. Especially if they can be blamed for deaths. Photos of mass burials aside, the consequences of underestimating danger and failing to act are politically fatal. In contrast, overestimating the danger and taking decisive action are politically much more attractive.

  If it really is an unprecedented threat, politicians are celebrated for their tough measures such as lockdowns. And politicians can always argue that without their decisive action, there would indeed have been a disaster. If the measures ultimately turn out to have been exaggerated because the hazard was not so great after all, the possible negative consequences of the measures are not as directly associated with the politicians as the photos of mass burials, because these consequences are more indirect and long term. The indirect and long-term health costs of lockdowns include suicides, depression, alcoholism, stress-related illnesses, earlier deaths from canceled surgeries and screenings, and a generally lower standard of living. However, these costs are not directly associated with the drastic interventions and blamed on the policy. Many of these consequences will occur after the next elections or even later and are not visible. For instance, we cannot observe to what extent a higher standard of living would have increased life expectancy. And if someone dies six years from now from alcoholism or depression developed in the wake of lockdowns, most people probably will not make the lockdown politicians responsible, and if they do, these politicians will possibly already be out of office. Thus, it is in the interest of politicians to overestimate a threat and overreact.

  In order to justify and defend the harsh measures such as lockdowns that are so attractive to politicians, it is necessary to stir up fear. When politicians stoked fear and hysteria during the covid-19 crisis, implementing highly restrictive measures such as lockdowns, the damage to the economy and social fabric was immense. Yet a society cannot be cannot be locked down forever, as the costs keep rising. At some point, it must exit lockdown and return to some normality. However, how can one at the same time stir up fear of the threat of a killer virus and return to normalcy?

  The way out is vaccination.

  With to the vaccination campaign the state can stage itself as the savior from the great danger. The state organizes vaccination for its citizens and gives the vaccinations to the citizens for “free.” Without this “vaccination rescue” and in a permanent lockdown, the negative economic and social consequences of the restrictions on civil rights would be so great that resentment among the population would continue to grow and ultimately unrest would threaten. So, sooner or later, the lockdown must be ended. If, however, the state authorities were to back out of the lockdowns and restrictions without further explanation and imply that the danger was not so great after all and that the restrictions were an exaggeration and a mistake, they would lose a great deal of support and trust among the population. Consequently, from a governmental perspective, a good and face-saving “exit scenario” from the most severe restrictions is needed, and the vaccination campaign provides it.

  Through state-provided vaccination, the state can continue to hold on to the narrative of the great threat and still get out of the lockdown. At the same time, it can pass itself off as a savior that is making somewhat more normality possibly through vaccination. To do this, it is necessary that as large a proportion of the population as possible also get vaccinated, because if only a fraction of the population gets vaccinated, the vaccination campaign cannot be sold as a necessary step toward opening up. Thus, it is in the state’s interest to get a major part of the population vaccinated.

  If this strategy works, the state will have set a precedent, expanded its power, and also made citizens more dependent. Citizens will believe that the state has rescued them from a mortal predicament and that they will need its help in the future. In return, they will be willing to give up some of their liberties permanently. The announcement that a state-organized annual vaccination booster is needed will perpetuate the citizens’ dependence.

  The mass media have fallen in line and actively support the vaccination narrative.

  The state and mass media are closely linked. Framing by the leading media and targeting the population have a long tradition. Already in 1928 Edward Bernays advocated the intelligent manipulation of the masses in his classic book Propaganda. In modern states, the mass media help to construct popular approval for political measures such as in the case of covid-19.

  The mass media’s support of the state is due to several reasons. Some media are directly owned by the state, others are highly regulated or require state licenses. Furthermore, media houses are staffed with graduates from state educational institutions. In addition, especially in times of crisis, a good connection to the government offers advantages and privileged access to information. The willingness to carry the state’s fear narrative also comes from the fact that negative news and the exaggeration of dangers bring attention.

  In the corona crisis, the one-sided media coverage that proliferated through social media and muted critical voices contributed to fear and panic and created great psychological stress among the population. However, it is not only negative news that is attractive to the media; the narrative of the state rescuing the population from a major crisis also sells well. Thus, the vaccination narrative plays into the hands of the mass media.

  In addition to nation-states, the media, and pharmaceutical companies, supranational organizations also have an interest in ensuring that the world’s population is vaccinated.

  Supranational organizations are actively pursuing an agenda in which global vaccination campaigns play an important role. These organizations include the World Economic Forum (WEF), the United Nations (UN), the EU, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Health Organization (WHO), which are closely interconnected.

  Some of these organizations have set as their goal a great reset, or a great transformation. In the areas of pandemic and climate protection, gender, migration, and the financial system, these organizations want to find coordinated answers for the benefit of all people worldwide. They emphasize shared responsibility and global solidarity. The central control of vaccination, climate change, and financial and migration flows bears the hallmarks of a new world order. For example, the theme of the 2019 annual meeting of the WEF was “Globalization 4.0: Shaping a New Global Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.” Another example of supranational planning is the UN’s “Global Compact for Migration.” At the national level, these radical ideas are supported, as shown by the German Advisory Council on Global Change’s Welt im Wandel – Gesellschaftsvertrag für eine Große Transformation (World in transition: Social contract for a great transformation) policy paper.

  Raymond Unger (2021, pp. 84–89) sees this drive for supranational planning as part of a culture war envisioned by Antonio Gramsci and Herbert Marcuse. A global management of opinion and outrage is combined with scenes of fear and horror, especially in the fields of climate change and corona, to establish a new socialist world order. In fact, the WHO, the IMF, and the UN are led by former communists. The WEF is financed by global companies, including the pharmaceutical industry and the big tech companies. The WEF, for its part, significantly finances the UN’s 2030 Agenda. The WHO is also significantly funded by pharmaceutical companies and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, which spearheads global vaccination campaigns. During the covid-19 crisis, the pharmaceutical industry also exerted its influence on the WHO. And the IMF only aided nation-states if they complied with WHO recommendations.

  These interconnected supranational organizations see the covid-19 crisis as an opportunity to advance their agendas. The UN policy paper Shared Responsibility, Global Solidarity: Responding to the Socio-economic Impacts of COVID-19 views covid-19 as a turning point for modern society. The intention is to seize the opportunity and act in a globally coordinated manner. The major tech companies support these agendas. They are also members of the WEF and censored disagreeable information related to covid-19 on their platforms (Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook), just like the mass media. Videos critical of vaccination are particularly quickly deleted on YouTube.

  The title of a keynote speech by IMF director Kristalina Georgieva, “From Great Lockdown to Great Transformation” also underscores the idea that supranational organizations want to use the corona crisis for their agendas. Klaus Schwab, founder of the WEF, argues that the covid-19 crisis represents a “rare opportunity” to “lay new foundations for our economic and social systems.” In COVID-19: The Great Reset, coauthored with Thierry Malleret, Schwab speaks of a defining moment and claims a new world will emerge. According to Schwab, it is time for a fundamental reform of capitalism.

  Thus, the globally coordinated vaccination program can be interpreted as a building block in a supranational strategy of a great reset.

  Global vaccination structures are being established that can be used for subsequent global vaccination campaigns. From the perspective of advocates of a great reset, globally coordinated covid-19 vaccination underscores the need for global structures and organizations that can then be used for other global purposes, such as effectively combating “climate change” and pushing for a great reset. In short, the state, the media, the pharmaceutical industry, and supranational organizations are closely intertwined and have a common interest in the vaccination narrative.

  From this perspective, the mounting pressure on the vaccine-free is unsurprising.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 23:40

• Uranium: Powering The Cleanest Source Of Energy
  Uranium: Powering The Cleanest Source Of Energy

  The world’s energy needs are growing with its population. However, as Visual Capitalist’s Govind Bhutada details below, achieving a net-zero carbon economy while meeting our growing energy needs requires a larger role for clean, sustainable, and reliable sources. Nuclear is one such energy source.

  The above graphic from the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust highlights how uranium is powering one of the cleanest and most reliable sources of energy in nuclear power.

  

  The Cleanest Energy Sources

  Although all energy sources have tradeoffs, some are better for the environment than others.

  To find the cleanest sources of energy, Our World in Data calculated CO2-equivalent emissions per gigawatt-hour (GWh) of electricity generated over the lifecycle of power plants for different energy sources. This includes the footprint of raw materials, transport, and construction of power plants.

  

  It’s not surprising that coal, oil, and natural gas plants emit much more greenhouse gases than their renewable and non-renewable counterparts. In fact, emissions per GWh from coal power plants are roughly 273 times higher than nuclear power plants.

  Hydropower offers a cleaner and renewable alternative to fossil fuels, however, the concrete and materials used in dam construction contribute to emissions. Furthermore, the decomposition of underwater vegetation in reservoirs also releases methane and carbon dioxide into the environment. Still, emissions per GWh from hydropower are around 24 times lower than coal.

  Solar and wind are often the most mentioned energy sources when it comes to the clean energy transition. However, their energy densities are lower than fossil fuels and as a result, they often require more units to generate the same amount of power. For example, generating one GWh of electricity can take more than three million photovoltaic panels, or 412 utility-scale wind turbines. Constructing these massive solar and wind farms adds up to a relatively large material footprint and consequently, GHG emissions.

  This is where nuclear power comes in.

  Why is Nuclear the Cleanest Source of Energy?

  Nuclear power plants use fission to generate electricity without any combustion, avoiding emissions from the process of electricity generation. What’s more, on average, it only takes one typical nuclear reactor to generate one GWh of electricity. The power generation capacity of nuclear reactors is largely due to the high energy density of uranium and nuclear fuel.

  According to the U.S. Department of Energy, a single, eraser-sized uranium pellet contains the same amount of energy as 120 gallons of oil or 17,000 cubic feet of natural gas. This allows nuclear power plants to generate large amounts of electricity efficiently, making them one of the cleanest energy sources per GWh of electricity produced.

  Nuclear’s Role in the Clean Energy Transition

  Nuclear power offers several advantages in the transition to clean energy.

  Besides being carbon-free and sustainable, nuclear power is also one of the most reliable and safest sources of energy. In fact, nuclear plants in the United States have a capacity factor of 92.5%, which means that they run at maximum capacity for almost 93% of the time during a year.

  As one of the cleanest, most powerful, and reliable sources of energy, nuclear power could play a key role in helping countries achieve decarbonization goals in the fight against climate change.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 23:20

• Untruths & Consequences
  Untruths & Consequences

  Authored by Eric Utter via AmericanThinker.com,

  To any sane person, it appears our elites and their media sycophants are engaging in an unprecedented preposterous statement tournament.  

  They must get up every day, snicker once or twice, and try to think of the most ridiculous, least verifiable piece of ludicrous prevarication they can attempt to pass off as truth. 

  And why shouldn’t they?  A significant percentage of Americans seem willing to believe anything at all.

  

  So President Biden says there are no Americans trapped in Kabul.  All right, now tell us the one about the three bears.  His press secretary, Jen Psaki, says we need to get the military out of Afghanistan first, so we don’t risk anyone getting hurt.  Yes, forget about the thousands of American civilians trapped in Kabul.  Ignore the pictures of mothers throwing their babies over fences.  Um, Jen, we send our troops to places specifically to confront danger and instability…and often to fight the bad guys.  That’s why, unlike civilians, they are armed to the teeth and wear body armor.  That’s why they have attack helicopters, A-10 Warthogs, missiles, rocket launchers, grenades, and submachine guns.  Or used to, before the Biden administration decided to donate them to the Taliban.  But we are told we can trust the Taliban, that its members are turning over a new leaf.  (Perhaps moving from the 8th century to the 9th century?)

  We are told the vaccines work wonderfully and are totally safe.  And then told we need to start wearing masks again.  And that hospitals are filling up again.  And that we need a “booster” shot.  We are virtually assured the coronavirus didn’t come from a laboratory in Wuhan.  Until we were told that it might very well have come from a laboratory in Wuhan.  But, Biden says, the Chinese are Hunter’s our friends., and Iran, too, poses no serious threat.

  Then the Los Angeles Times trots out a headline averring: “Larry Elder is the Black face of white supremacy.  You’ve been warned.”  Gee, Times, thanks for the tip.  Does it make sense, though, that a Black man is the spokesperson for white supremacy?  Apparently, this is not your grandfather’s White supremacy movement.  (Were there many Black Imperial Wizards in the Ku Klux Klan?)  I mean, did the rank and file not notice that their precious White supremacy organization was filling up with Black folks?  If they did and didn’t care, and if they like Larry Elder, they really aren’t particularly racist, are they?  Have they just not been paying attention, or have they gone soft?  Or maybe there isn’t that big of a problem here, and everyone can just settle down and go home.    

  What can be said with certainty is that “The Los Angeles Times is the face of media idiocy.”

  It has been said over the decades that Americans have lost their innocence, that we are terribly jaded and cynical.  The past few years have proved that this, too, is incorrect.  A disheartening number of Americans have bought the lies of the government and media that despise them:

  •  “Trump colluded with Russia!”

  • “The 2020 election was the fairest of them all.”

  • “Kamala Harris will be a great vice president.”

  • “Hunter is the smartest guy I know.”     

  • “It’s all Trump’s fault.”

  The United States was founded on a healthy — and historically deeply warranted — distrust of government.  

  Today, the only thing many Americans are skeptical about is the truth.

  Past this point, no free republic, indeed no viable society, can long continue.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 23:00

• Who The Public Thinks Bears Responsibility For The Taliban Takeover?
  Who The Public Thinks Bears Responsibility For The Taliban Takeover?

  A poll by CBS and YouGov shows that most Americans think the Afghan government and army carry a great share of the responsibility for the Taliban takeover, but, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes below, many survey participants also put considerable blame on Presidents Biden and Trump.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  A quarter of Americans believe that former President Donald Trump carries a lot of the responsibility for Afghanistan falling back to the Taliban before the withdrawal of U.S. troops was even complete. In February 2020, Trump and the Taliban had signed an agreement to withdraw all U.S. and NATO troops in 2021. Current

  President Joe Biden, who followed through with the commitment, was seen as having a lot of responsibility for the developments in Afghanistan by 36 percent of respondents, signaling that a good amount of people believe he shouldn’t have heeded his predecessor’s pledge.

  In total, 86 percent and 72 percent of respondents said that Biden and Trump, respectively, carried any of the blame for the Taliban takeover.

  Only 37 percent of survey participants said that they disapproved of the 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan – out of these, 55 percent said that troops should have stayed, while 70 percent said that the removal should have been handled better. Furthermore, 67 percent believed Joe Biden has no clear plan for evacuating American civilians from the country. 81 percent of respondents said interpreters and other local employees of the U.S. military and government should be aided in coming to the U.S.

  Finally, we note that the survey was taken between August 18-20th, which is well before this week’s clusterfuck really accelerated.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 22:40

• Luongo: Kabul 'Planned Chaos'? Who Does Davos Turn To After Biden?
  Luongo: Kabul ‘Planned Chaos’? Who Does Davos Turn To After Biden?

  Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

  With the collapse of Afghanistan and the clear inability of Joe Biden to handle the situation the clock is winding down quickly on The Davos Crowd to figure out how to keep things from going completely off the rails.

  

  Opposition to mandatory vaccination and the public use of private medical data is rising far quicker than they anticipated. It’s exposing the extent of the uselessness of the people installed by them in places of power around the world to effect the Great Reset.

  From New Zealand to Canada, France to the White House, Davos thought they could basically pull an Emperor Palpatine and just ‘make The Great Reset legal’ and it would all work itself out. That is clearly not happening.

  The stories coming out of Australia are as deeply disturbing as Biden’s bungling the retreat from Afghanistan. It highlights how quickly petty tyrants have turned into inhuman killers of the defenseless, i.e. rescue dogs in Australia.

  But, then again, this is the fundamental problem with collectivists of all types. They hate those things they want to protect. The same people criminalize ‘animal abuse’ then lobby for, fund and create through taxes doggie concentration camps at the local county run shelter.

  Life to them is cheap. So cheap that they abstract the value of it to zero in order to justify their lust to rule over others, masking their fear of a hostile and unpredictable world. What’s being done to dogs in New South Wales will escalate to unvaxxed humans if this isn’t stopped in its tracks.

  Once the dehumanization starts it doesn’t end until the tyrants are overthrown and defeated. Moreover, when one group is pushed to the brink of extinction that puts them in the position to fight back harder than they have ever fought back before.

  Existential threats are like that.

  So, heaven help the tyrants Down Under, because there is a special place in Dante’s EZ-Bake Oven (H/T Dennis Miller) for people who gas rescue dogs.

  To Every Season, Churn, Churn, Churn

  The point of this is that this rising opposition to the New Normal as promoted by Davos is forcing an acceleration of their plans. I’ve talked about this before. And when you see a 180 degree shift in a media narrative you have to take it seriously.

  Because it means something significant has changed.

  The media and most of D.C. has turned on Biden in a complete 180, just like they did on the COVID-9/11 lab leak theory once it became useful for Davos to do so and Dr. Fauci was caught by Rand Paul red handed lying to Congress.

  Now, I believe strongly that the mess in Kabul was planned chaos.  

  It was designed to make the U.S. look like a bunch of bungling morons. I’ll lay aside, for now, the reality that the messy pull-out from Afghanistan was meant to sow chaos there, leaving behind billions in weapons to re-arm ISIS/Al-Qaeda to snipe at the Taliban and frustrate their ability to form a government.

  Biden has been set up to take the blame for this. He’s neither prepared for it nor even capable of processing the speed at which this is happening. It’s almost like he’s as lost in The Churn from James S.A. Corey’s The Expanse series as the rest of us have been. To remind you …

  … The Churn is that moment when, “the rules of the game change.” Which game?

  Amos: {from The Expanse} “The only game. Survival. When the jungle tears itself down and builds itself into something new. Guys like you and me, we end up dead. Doesn’t really mean anything. Or, if we happen to live through it, well that doesn’t mean anything either.”

  Embedded in Amos’ idea of The Churn, however, is that while the rules change, society itself keeps on keeping on. So many people right now are trying to analyze the political situation in terms of The Churn, the normal ebb and flow of who has the upper hand in the power struggle.

  So, from where I’m sitting the game has changed and who has the upper hand is the key to our surviving it or not.

  Back to Biden, because he clearly isn’t a guy who will survive this. If he hadn’t spent his one lifetime in service of the most venal forms of corruption I’d almost feel sorry for him because elder abuse is an awful reflection on any society, just like gassing rescue dogs is. But, like I said, we’re dealing with people who have no soul, no center and only the unquenchable envy that resides in those without those things searching for meaning in their meaningless existence.

  So, Biden is not long for this life in the public eye. He is quickly being pushed out of the picture, another dog put down to pave the road to global serfdom.

  I Think I’m Turning Euro-cheese

  Now, in contrast, have you noticed how the UK, France and Germany are all getting the big pass on getting their people out of Kabul even though they were in the know about the situation there?

  Have you noticed the desperate bleats from people like Tony Blair and EU Foreign Minister Josef Borrell about the loss of Afghanistan?

  Obviously, this is meant to distract from rising civil unrest at home, but the real takeaway is to further divide Europe from the US on everything

  In their power-soaked, globalism-addled minds, how can Davos’ ideas survive if it can’t milk the U.S. tax-cow to spend trillions on protecting their interests in central Asia?

  Boris Johnson’s government just voted to hold Biden in contempt for his Afghanistan debacle.

  Biden’s team mismanaged the Afghanistan retreat knowing full well what was likely to happen. The knives are already out for his National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.

  Macron, Merkel, the truly feckless British all knew the situation in country. Admitting Biden’s failure in Afghanistan is the one thing neocons and neoliberals truly agree on.

  So their turning on him through the media reveals clearly the rules of the game have changed again.

  At the same time, Alex Mercouris was correct in his assessment that Kamala Harris is also being sidelined because she’s not in Afghanistan or at least overseas coordinating with these foreign allies to work through the situation and get the Americans trapped there out.  

  She’s in Singapore and Vietnam getting hammered by the press and laughing about Americans being left behind.

  What’s on display here is the tired old narrative, “We do everything better than the Yanks.” This also helps lessen the blow to the cognitive dissonance the Leftards are going through as this thing falls apart. They are rapidly coming to the conclusion that they ‘elected’ a sundowning fungus for President over a guy they hated for no other reason than because they were told by the very architects of this Afghanistan tragedy that he was a Nazi.

  The programming is deep folks, on both sides of the political aisle.

  There are plenty waking up but it may not be enough before everything explodes.  I’m serious now.

  We are in the early moments of stage-managing Biden’s exit speech. But since we’ve also entered into a new game, the old rules don’t necessarily apply.

  The big question now is, what happens next?

  Kamala Chameleon

  I have to believe Davos has already calculated what their best course of action is. I’m going to start by stating I don’t think Kamala Harris is the answer for them, unless the goal is for the next president to be so thoroughly hated by an angry, confused America that the country literally tears itself in two.

  The problem is she may be the biggest problem they have now, because she’s not on anyone’s team but Team Harris and I think that’s why she’s in Singapore now to see if she can curry the right favors and be allowed to take over.

  Getting rid of Biden will not be difficult at this point.

  So, Harris, while she is hated by everyone, is also uniquely unqualified for the job as president. That being said, she’s not unqualified at being a schemer and a power-seeker. She and Obama must get along famously.

  That said, I’m sure she’s game-planned out her course to the Presidency even if Davos, who, in my read, may want something different. Someone in these post-Churn times who is more predictable.

  If public outrage over Afghanistan reaches any kind of fever pitch, because of, say, Benghazi-like images of Americans getting shot and dragged through the streets of Kabul blaring nightly on what passes for news in the U.S., then Biden will have to resign.

  If we add in definitive proof through the audits that the Democrats cheated in the election during this, then we have maximum chaos and Harris doesn’t survive that either. Remember, Davos used the pivot on COVID-9/11’s origin to foment anti-China sentiment in the U.S.

  Using the audits to pivot and delegitimize Harris at the same time seems both in character and very possible.

  Now why wouldn’t that mean a restoration of Trump? Well, has the Supreme Court done anything notable since Davos put their full-court press on last summer?

  When I say I think the U.S. is being liquidated, I’m serious folks.

  I don’t see Kamala Harris, the ultimate political diversity hire, surviving that. In fact, the Democrats would be in complete disarray if the audits began causing real ground-level unrest. The mid-terms are already a lost cause. So, time is of the essence to get this operation done.

  Maybe I’m being too reductionist here as Harris has plenty of cards to play within the Democratic party apparatus, but only if her position is considered legitimate and only if the Democrats are more than two steps ahead of the lynch mob.

  25th Amendment Nervous Breakdown

  That said, if we see a 25th Amendment challenge to Biden’s competence then all roads lead to President Harris, it’s the way the 25th reads, unless there’s no Vice-President. Harris would have to resign first, and she’s done nothing that would prompt that. In fact, her distancing herself from Afghanistan is the smartest move I’ve seen her make.

  That leads to the expected scenario which is Harris ascends to the Presidency and likely choosing Speaker Nancy Pelosi to be Vice-President and President of the Senate. To get her confirmation through Nancy will make a deal with Mitch McConnell and that’s that. It’ll be a good deal for the Republicans.

  Nancy gets the gold ice cream freezer and two more years in D.C. versus the one year left on her likely last term in Congress. At the same time, McConnell knows he’s neutering her when the Republicans win the mid-terms (assuming they happen at all). She lives the dream as the 2nd female Vice-President.

  But, if Biden steps down in disgrace because of the combination of election fraud, Afghanistan and something else we haven’t game planned out yet, then Harris will have to go with him.

  At that point things get weird. Going through the list of Democrats who could fit the bill available under that scenario is problematic because it’s so short it’s practically non-existent.

  And if Harris is going to resign as well under threat of impeachment, then Biden’s last act as president would be to appoint a new vice-president per the 25th Amendment. resigned before Nixon did, which allowed him to nominate Gerald Ford who was confirmed, took office and pardoned Nixon.

  Here are the relevant portions of the 25th Amendment.

  Section 1. In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President.

  Section 2. Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

  So, if history repeats and Biden resigns alongside an unacceptable-to-Davos Harris then Biden’s last act will be to nominate a new Vice-President who then assumes the Presidency. And here I contend that Nancy Pelosi will not become the first female president.

  They need someone competent to run things, young enough to last through the term and, most importantly loyal to Obama and Davos.  This person cannot spark revolt from the normies nor be overtly partisan to those in ‘Flyover Country.’

  The goal is a neutral person who no one has a strong opinion on but who is well-versed in the ways of things which matter.

  Hillary is out.  She’s depreciated goods. Davos has no use for her.

  Pelosi is out because she would never survive a majority vote of the Senate. Mitch McConnell, who would see this as the ultimate opportunity to break the Democrats permanently for the next generation, might actually smile.

  I don’t even see her wanting the job at this point. She’s got ice cream dreams.

  So who does that leave?  No one who ran for President in the primaries.  They were all clowns, except for Tulsi Gabbard of course, but she’s out of politics in a rare showing of humanity by someone who spent time in D.C. The rest were chosen specifically to get us to a Biden/Harris or Harris/BetaCuck ticket.

  This person can, however, be wholly unacceptable in the same corners of the U.S. population which is already being herded into the status of “domestic terrorist” and “sub-human semi-citizens”… that’d be libertarians, constitutionalists, refuse to get the vaccine and who see globalism for the corporatist nightmare it truly is…. in short, people like you reading this article.

  Mitch McConnell would love nothing more than to stick it to us after what happened on January 6th. He gets to play kingmaker of a ‘neutral’ candidate.

  Dammit, Janet Davos Loves You!

  So who is this person? The answer came to me in a flash while replying to someone on Twitter and I’m ashamed to admit it took me this long to see it.

  The answer, of course, is Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.  Ticks all the boxes.

  Female, seemingly apolitical, knows her way around Washington, former head of the Fed and a Davos troll to the tips of her fingernails.

  And, just to put the cherry on top of this theory, she is the only person who could credibly stand up to Jay Powell at the Fed who has clearly gone off the Davos reservation by defending the dollar and the Fed. Per my last article, if the Fed is truly fomenting a dollar crisis to reassert its primacy in the pantheon of central banks, then Yellen would be the one person who would complete the Davos coup by firing Powell, neutering the Fed and ending the chaos created by Biden.

  Davos has to reassert control here and restore our faith in The Churn. Yellen is just the person to make sure all of that happens.

  I know what you’re thinking, though, it seems a stretch to put an unelected central banker at the head of a powerful country? What are you smoking, Tom?

  

  I told you the Central Bankers were coming!

  So, expect President Yellen in the next six months, effectively appointed by Davos like Mario Draghi was appointed in Italy. They don’t have a lot of time to pull any of this off, no less getting Biden out of office.

  With President Yellen, the central banker takeover of the West would be complete with this arrangement.  I don’t know if it’d work out the way Davos plans, but it’s the cleanest solution to their current problem I see.

  For this reason alone, I think this is the most likely scenario as things are quickly escalating with Biden.

  If you don’t like it, there’s a dog kennel with your QR code on it.

  *  *  *

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  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 22:20

• Nitric Oxide Nasal Spray Reduces Covid-19 Viral Load By 95% Within 24 Hours: Study
  Nitric Oxide Nasal Spray Reduces Covid-19 Viral Load By 95% Within 24 Hours: Study

  A well known antimicrobial, Nitric Oxide, has been found to rapidly reduce SARS-CoV-2 viral load, knocking it down by 95% within 24 hours, and 99% within 72 hours, according to a recent study by researchers funded by England’s NHS foundation trust and SaNOtize Research & Development Corporation – a Canadian biotech company currently conducting Phase II trials of a nitric oxide nasal spray.

  

  A group of 80 adults (18-70 years) with confirmed (Alpha strain) Covid-19 infections were divided into two groups, with half receiving nitric oxide nasal spray (NONS) that were self-administered 5-6 times daily for 9 days.

  The goal of the nasal spray is to kill the virus present in the upper airways – preventing it from incubating and making its way to the lungs.

  The study found that mean viral load was significantly lower in the NONS group by a factor of 16.2, in what the study’s authors described as an “accelerated decrease,” while nearly half of those who completed a post-study questionnaire reported feeling better vs. 8% of the placebo group.

  Mean SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration was lower on NONS by a factor of 16.2 at days 2 and 4. A rapid reduction (95%) in the SARS-CoV-2 viral load was observed within 24 hours, with a 99% reduction observed within 72 hours with NONS treatments. -Clinical efficacy of nitric oxide nasal spray (NONS) for the treatment of mild COVID-19 infection.

  What’s more, there were no serious adverse reactions from the nasal spray.

  

  “Treatment with NONS in this trial was found to be effective and safe in reducing the viral load in patients with mild, symptomatic COVID-19 infection,” reads the study. “Patients in the NONS treatment arm demonstrated viral loads, as determined from PCR testing of nose and throat swab sampling, that were lower at days 2 and 4 by a factor of 16.2 than those on placebo, and symptom resolution was also found to be faster on NONS treatment than on placebo in this study.”

  Lower SARS-CoV-2 RNA loads in patients with NONS may be beneficial in the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. It has been described that higher viral loads in patients with SARS-CoV-2 earlier than SARS-CoV may have contributed to greater difficulties in reducing the onward transmission. Furthermore, it has been observed that the risk of symptomatic COVID-19 was associated with the SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels of contacts and incubation time was shortened in a dose-dependent manner.

  Accelerated SARS-CoV-2 clearance with NONS may reduce symptom duration, decrease infectivity period, reduce hospital admissions, and lower disease severity. Consequently, this study could be used as supporting evidence for emergency use of NONS for patients with mild COVID-19 infection.

  According to SaNOtize, researchers from Utah State University were able to kill 99.9% of SARS-CoV-2 in a petri dish within two minutes.

  The company, whose board includes Prof. Ferid Murad of Stanford University – who won the Nobel Prize in 1998 for discovering the properties of nitric oxide, signed an agreement with Indian biotech Glenmark earlier this month to manufacture, market and distribute NONS throughout Asia, including Singapore, Malaysia Hong Kong, Taiwan, Nepal, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste and Vietnam.

  According to SaNOtize Chief Science Officer, Dr. Chris Miller, the nasal spray is a ‘post-exposure’ prevention akin to hand sanitizer.

  “If you are outside, around people, and could be infected, you could use the spray and reduce the number of viruses in the nose, before it is becoming a full-blown infection. We have shown that even when people have a very high load of virus, the spray can significantly reduce the viral load,” Miller said in May.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 22:00

• In Massive Propaganda Onslaught, Media Ignores The Real "Catastrophe" Of Afghanistan
  In Massive Propaganda Onslaught, Media Ignores The Real “Catastrophe” Of Afghanistan

  Authored by Michael Tracey via Substack,

  In September of 2017, an obscure government official stood before a small audience at an obscure think tank and described a catastrophe that was unfolding. “Obscure” to the average citizen, that is — but not at all obscure to the “insiders” and journalists who attend these sorts of gatherings in DC, or sign up for the pertinent email lists, or read acronym-filled trade publications.

  

  It was only a few weeks earlier that a president, his first year in office, had been persuaded by “the adults in the room” — those sagely Generals again — to authorize yet another escalation in a war these “insiders” largely knew was unwinnable. Curiously, the “adult” decision always seems to entail prolonging fatally doomed military interventions, as though that were the obviously sober and mature course of action. This same ritual had also occurred with the previous president his first year in office, albeit with even more catastrophic consequences.

  The obscure government official, reserved in his manner but about as candid could be expected under the circumstances, relayed a few anecdotes:

  “One US officer,” he said, “watched TV shows like COPS and NCIS to learn what he should teach Afghan police recruits.”

  That would be a reference to the Afghan National Police, one of the country’s US-subsidized security forces which just evaporated this week.

  The official continued: 

  “We heard horrible stories about the widows. Of Afghan soldiers. Who have to give sexual favors in order to get the pension benefits.”

  That would be a reference to the Afghan National Army, another one of the country’s US-subsidized security forces which just evaporated this week.

  “Would any American put up with that?” the official asked.

  “So we’re trying to win the hearts and minds of the Afghan people. We first got to win the hearts and minds of the Afghan security forces.”

  The official in question is John F. Sopko. He is the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) and has occupied that role since 2012. Despite his obscure public profile, everyone in DC with any significant policy interest in Afghanistan knows him. He is required to audit and assess American-led state-building efforts in Afghanistan, and for the past nine years the reports he’s published have grown increasingly dire. I’ve been subscribed to his email list for a long time. The pundits and politicians who now flood US and international TV airwaves decrying the Afghanistan withdrawal as one of history’s greatest catastrophes — do they subscribe?

  Because if not, they likely would’ve missed SIGAR’s final report. It was released just this month.

  And here is Sopko’s ultimate conclusion — after nine years on the job with the most birds-eye holistic view of the US Government’s engagement in Afghanistan — about the overall nature of such “reconstruction” efforts:

  1. They are very expensive. For example, all war-related costs for US efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan over the last two decades are estimated to be $6.4 trillion. 

  2. They usually go poorly. 

  3. Widespread recognition that they go poorly has not prevented US officials from pursuing them. 

  4. Rebuilding countries mired in conflict is actually a continuous US government endeavor, reflected by efforts in the Balkans and Haiti and smaller efforts currently underway in Mali, Burkina Faso, Somalia, Yemen, Ukraine, and elsewhere. 

  5. Large reconstruction campaigns usually start small, so it would not be hard for the US government to slip down this slope again somewhere else and for the outcome to be similar to that of Afghanistan. 

  If you detect a bit of morbidly dry humor in that summation, you’re not alone.

  Can someone explain why the policy warned about over and over again by Sopko — the futility of which was known to all the relevant actors in the US policy-making apparatus — is not what’s being portrayed in wall-to-wall corporate media coverage as a “catastrophe”? 

  Why aren’t his outlandishly damning anecdotes about the utter incapacity of the Afghan security forces — anecdotes Sopko relayed in 2017 to anyone who would listen — being presented as emblematic of a “catastrophically” flawed policy in Afghanistan?

  Why wasn’t it declared “catastrophic” when the war was escalated by presidents of both parties, even as these fatal flaws were meticulously documented in the public domain?

  Why is it only a “catastrophe” when the underlying policy — a failure of epic proportions — is belatedly terminated?

  Doesn’t it seem strange that what the public’s being told is truly “catastrophic” about US policy vis-a-vis Afghanistan is that the US is finally withdrawing, thus putting an end to the policy the Government’s chief investigator was screaming from the hilltops was completely farcical? 

  US military personnel were training Afghan police by watching dopey American TV shows. The same police force whose collapse we’re now supposed to be mystified by; a collapse which gave rise to circumstances where US withdrawal could not be conducted with the pristine “orderliness” that politicians and TV commentators are flamboyantly demanding.

  You’re suddenly outraged about the precise operational details of US policy in Afghanistan… but only as it pertains to the long-delayed evacuation mission? Not so much about the operational details which led to a situation where widows of Afghan soldiers had to perform sex acts to get their dead husband’s pension? We’re supposed to be surprised that this appears to have sapped the will of these soldiers to resist a Taliban offensive — thus giving the US withdrawal suboptimal “optics”?

  Why isn’t having engaged in this intervention for so long, despite full knowledge of its foundational lunacy, what harms American “credibility” or undercuts its “reputation”? Why is the withdrawal — but not the war itself — provoking such sustained shrieks of “catastrophe”?

  Some of the most esteemed journalists in the world are proclaiming this the worst US foreign policy fiasco since World War II. Worse, you know, than the fiasco of the war itself. Or Iraq. Or Vietnam. How did we lumber into this upside-down Bizarro World?

  Well, here’s one theory.

  Because as much as the elite political and media class wants to act like they’re on board in theory with “ending endless war,” they’re more than happy to abandon that pretense at a moment’s notice if the “optics” look bad, or if there are cheap partisan points to be scored, or if there are fake “experts” on call (many of whom just happen to have direct personal, reputational, and financial investment in the failed war).

  They’ll posture as sympathetic to the “war-weariness” of the public, but then, when that “weariness” actually culminates in the cessation of a war, they go completely nuts. Maybe because they’ve benefitted, one way or another, from the status quo. And they wouldn’t much mind, as Sopko warned, if the whole process repeats itself sometime in the near future. That $6.4 trillion squandered over 20 years didn’t put a dent in their pockets.

  And you wonder why it’s such a rarity for “endless wars” to actually “end”?

  *  *  *

  Subscribe to Michael’s Substack here

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 21:40

• Federal Judge Pulls Permits For ConocoPhillips Oil Project Due To Impact On "Climate Change And Polar Bears"
  Federal Judge Pulls Permits For ConocoPhillips Oil Project Due To Impact On “Climate Change And Polar Bears”

  A federal approval of a multi-billion oil project that would have been built in Alaska was thrown out by a judge last week who claimed the government didn’t assess the project’s impact on climate change and polar bears before approving the permits.

  The project, called the ConocoPhillips Willow project, was backed by both the Biden and Trump administrations. It was also backed by “wide support” from Alaskan political leaders, according to the Wall Street Journal.

  But that didn’t stop U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason from ruling that the Bureau of Land Management didn’t account for greenhouse gasses that the project would produce. 

  The judge wrote: “As to the errors found by the Court, they are serious.”

  ConocoPhillips will now head back to the drawing board and “evaluate its options”, according to the report. 

  

  Despite the project getting the backing of the Biden administration, the company knew it had a long road of legal challenges (in an unfavorable PR climate for oil & gas names) to deal with. 

  The project was supposed to be a 160,000 barrel-per-day, 30 year project that would drill in the federal government’s National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska.

  The Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals had slowed the project this year, despite the Trump administration offering its final approval of the project in October. 

  Alaska governor Mike Dunleavy said: “Make no mistake, today’s ruling from a federal judge trying to shelve a major oil project on American soil does one thing: outsources. This is a horrible decision.”

  Jeremy Lieb, an attorney with Earthjustice, who brought the case on behalf of other plaintiffs, said: “We are hopeful that the administration won’t give the fossil fuel industry another chance to carve up this irreplaceable Arctic landscape with drilling rigs, roads, and pipelines. We should keep Arctic oil in the ground if we want a livable planet for future generations.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 21:20

• "Get The F*ck Out!": Antifa Attacks Female Reporter In Portland
  “Get The F*ck Out!”: Antifa Attacks Female Reporter In Portland

  Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News,

  This past Sunday, while covering a protest in Portland, Oregon for our video partner News2Share, a reporter named Maranie Staab was attacked by members of an Antifa-affiliated group. After complaining about a report she’d done in Colombia in conjunction with TK News, they maced her, shot paint at her, and threw her to the ground.

  The backdrop for this scene was explained to TK readers this past weekend in our latest episode of “Activism, Uncensored” called “The Great American Fistfight.” After a series of violent street clashes between left and right activists in Los Angeles, right-wing protesters planned a “United We Win” rally in Portland, Oregon for this past weekend. Antifa and left-wing groups pledged to “defend Portland from racist fascists.” News2Share’s Ford Fischer predicted violence, and he unfortunately turned out to be right.

  The exact sequence of events will be detailed in a longer report Ford has coming — the whole day turned out to be a mess, replete with violent confrontations and ending with an exchange of gunfire, in which a right-wing protester fired first (a Black Bloc protester returned fire but was not apprehended). Staab, it should be noted, was also first sprayed with WD-40 by a right-wing protester. But the more serious incident took place later.

  In the relevant sequence, an Antifa-affiliated protester called Staab a kutta (a Hindi word meaning, “dog,” apparently) and “slut.” Then the masked protester demanded that press “get the fuck out” and stop filming, pointing in Staab’s face and making the following bizarre comment about a story we ran in July called “Colombia in Chaos”:

  You fucking endanger people by flying to fucking Colombia and endangering everyone by opening them up to Covid!

  Beyond the total incoherence of that comment generally, calling a woman a name like “slut” obviously flies in the face of what antifascist protesters generally claim to be their beliefs about things like misogyny. In any case, Staab then approached the protesters without her cameras out to try to talk things through, at which point they tossed paint at her, maced her, and threw her to the ground. Eventually, they also smashed both her iPhone and the lens for her digital camera. “Out!” they screamed. “How many fucking times do we have to tell you?”

  In the coming longer video report on this site, viewers will see that the idiocies of Sunday ranged far and wide, with no shortage of violence from the Proud Boys and other rightist groups that showed up that day. However, only one group saw fit to attack a videographer, and I think it’s time the wider press took more notice, because this is not an aberration with this type of activist.

  Having encountered Antifa-type protesters in the past, my impression was always that they were neither organized nor terribly numerous, and I always found them more ridiculous than threatening. I too have had the experience of being ordered not to photograph or film Antifa protesters, instructions that always made me wonder about the intelligence level of these people.

  Yes, putting masks on prevents you from being identified, but it doesn’t confer the right of invisibility. Also, if you show up at a publicly-announced protest in a public place in broad daylight dressed like GWAR roadies or extras to a Terry Gilliam movie and start smashing things, one really has to wonder about the sincerity of your commitment to anonymity. Someone is going to film you, whether it’s the right-wing counter-protesters on the other side or the police, and in the case of the press, it’s actually their job to do it in a responsible way. You have a right to wear a mask, they have both the right and the obligation to film you, that’s how this works.

  Nonetheless, antifascist protesters have taken their absurd demands of non-coverage quite far in the past, making lists of protester-approved media and going after reporters and videographers from papers like local CBS and ABC affiliates as well as the Washington Post, NPR, the Toronto Sun, and others. Their rationale is that filming hurts their cause by making them vulnerable either to arrest or doxing, a dubious concept one could argue on multiple levels, but again, that’s what masks are for. Moreover — and I know this can be a hard concept — cameras generally help public protests, with the exception being when activists behave stupidly or unattractively in public. If you don’t do things like knock female reporters to the ground, you’re probably not going to end up dealing with negative press.

  By general assent many mainstream outlets and politicians have taken the position that “Antifa” doesn’t exist, with outlets like Vanity Fair writing pieces like “Sure looks like the right’s Antifa boogeyman doesn’t exist,” and people like Jerrold Nadler calling Antifa violence a “myth.” It does seem to be true that there is no “Antifa” in the sense of a nationally organized phenomenon, and they certainly are not the threat Donald Trump claims they are, but that doesn’t mean they are a completely harmless non-entity either. Too many news outlets have respected the desire of such protesters to remain invisible when they behave atrociously, and this is one of those cases.

  If the protesters from this past weekend had any integrity, they would come forward and start with an apology. There’s no excuse for attacking press, especially when your modus operandi is moronic attention-grabbing public stunts. I’ll let Ford and News2Share tell the rest of this story, but to say I’m furious about the events of this weekend would be an understatement. It also doesn’t say a lot about the ethics of mainstream press outlets that they let behavior like this go without comment. How is any of this “progressive”?

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 21:00

• As Anger Rises Over Soaring Inflation, Brazil's Bolsonaro Backs Central Bank Chief
  As Anger Rises Over Soaring Inflation, Brazil’s Bolsonaro Backs Central Bank Chief

  Runaway inflation in the US may be “transitory” – at least according to pundits, experts and central bankers – but in Brazil, where CPI just the highest since 2016 at 9% despite the central bank’s earnest efforts to tame soaring prices, nobody harbors such delusions. It’s getting so bad that Brazil’s inflation problem is starting to dent the popularity of the country’s president, Jair Bolsonaro who according to Bloomberg is “growing uneasy about Brazil’s inflation in the run-up to general elections next year”, but despite his public complaints about rising prices, he won’t interfere with the central bank, Bloomberg reported citing five sources.

  On Friday, the Associated Press reported that Bolsonaro has privately regretted signing a law that gave formal autonomy to the central bank and has considered interfering with the institution. The president’s chief of staff, Ciro Nogueira,  denied the report in a series of posts on Twitter in which he called the episode an “imaginary bonfire.”

  

  Still, where there is a bonfire, imaginary or otherwise, there is smoke, and Bolsonaro has for months complained about rising fuel and cooking gas prices that are eroding his popularity. While inflation is running at an annual rate of almost 9%, fuel costs have soared 44% over the past 12 months, hurting some of the president’s main backers including truckers (as a reference, US inflation isn’t that much lower, but in America anger over rising prices is far more subdued due to stimmies which have made the impact of inflation less noticeable for now).

  

  When a social media follower complained about the price of gasoline over the weekend, the president tried to divert responsibility saying state governors tax fuels too much.

  But while Bolsonaro has kept the public discourse civil, his discontent behind closed doors runs deeper. He was particularly annoyed by remarks made by Campos Neto last week during a Council of the Americas event in which the central banker linked an increase in inflation expectations to political infighting, Bloomberg reported although adding that those complaints are part of the president’s “mercurial personality” – a term the media giant never used when describing Donald Trump – and show no intention to intervene in the way the central bank works, nor to make changes in the economic team at the moment, the sources said.

  

  For his part, central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto remains highly regarded within the Bolsonaro administration and also has the backing of key congressional allies, including lower house Speaker Arthur Lira. Campos Neto has been under pressure to bring inflation down after an ultra-hawkish monetary policy did little to improve expectations. After four aggressive interest-rate hikes since March and another one planed for September, inflation expectations for 2022 are still wildly above next year’s 3.5% target.

  

  Furthermore, even if Bolsonaro wanted to fire Campos Neto, he would have to find a way to bypass the bank’s new autonomy law. The legislation, approved by congress earlier this year, establishes that central bank board members can’t be removed before the end of their mandates; Campos Neto’s term finishes on the last day of 2024.

  Brazil’s Supreme Court was expected to rule on Wednesday on a case that questions the constitutionality of that law, but the institution delayed a ruling on the constitutionality of the law, which investors view as a key piece of legislation considered by investors as a victory for monetary policy making in Latin America’s largest economy. The justices are discussing a case brought to the court by two opposition parties that claim the original proposal should have been introduced by the nation’s president, and not by lawmakers as it was. Two of them had voted – one against and the other for upholding the law – when chief Justice Luiz Fux adjourned the session, saying it will resume Thursday.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 20:40

• "Killing For The Sake Of Killing": Pilots Leak Footage Showing Deadly Drone Strikes Against Unarmed Afghans
  “Killing For The Sake Of Killing”: Pilots Leak Footage Showing Deadly Drone Strikes Against Unarmed Afghans

  A group of American drone pilots has leaked footage of “nihilistic” and “punitive” drone strikes in Afghanistan that took place in 2019, and involved the killings of a child and an innocent adult civilian. One soldier described the events depicted in the footage as “killing for the sake of killing.”

  It’s just another sad commentary on the barbarity with which the American armed forced treated the Afghans, which ultimately aided Taliban recruitment and helped the group regain control of the country after 2 decades of guerilla warfare.

  The footage, published on Tuesday as part of an investigation by military news outlet Connecting Vets, shows how the US eventually “relaxed” its rules of engagement as part of a strategy to pressure the Taliban into surrender.

  Some drone operators interviewed by Connecting Vets claimed the loosened rules around air strikes served “no point” and didn’t “make a difference”. One pilot even claimed that it was “killing for the sake of killing.” The strikes also reportedly killed far more civilians than the Pentagon has admitted.

  Not only were Afghans targeted with lethal strikes for using or touching a radio, but DOD would kill people if a Scan Eagle pilot thought maybe he saw an antenna sticking out from under his clothes for a moment, or caught (maybe) a glimpse of a tac vest.https://t.co/5ez5wjoJ74 pic.twitter.com/cfO2ji6DuM

  — Jack Murphy (@JackMurphyRGR) August 24, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It is not like they had developed targeting packets based on intelligence, they never even knew the names of the people they were killing. Rather, these Afghans met a “target engagement criteria” in Helmand during 2019 that marked them for death.

  — Jack Murphy (@JackMurphyRGR) August 24, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It was a tactic developed to fight ISIS in Iraq, an enemy Army that occupied cities but then this template was brought to Afghanistan and used for a maximum pressure campaign against the Taliban during the Doha negotiations.

  — Jack Murphy (@JackMurphyRGR) August 24, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  One of the drone pilots told me they would fly into new grid squares each day and watch from above, “waiting for them to fuck up,” so they could drop a hellfire missile on someone.

  — Jack Murphy (@JackMurphyRGR) August 24, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Contrast with this interview I did w/ a Green Beret at the 2015 battle of Kunduz wherein commanders were too scared to drop a bomb on a Taliban tank in the city.https://t.co/QLRUpHFJ64

  — Jack Murphy (@JackMurphyRGR) August 24, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Another soldier described how he accidentally killed a child and two innocent men when their motorbike veered into the path of an incoming hellfire missile: “My productivity today was derailed. We killed two innocent men and a charger [military slang for a child]. They were on a motorcycle and by dumb luck drove into the same intersection as our target as the hellfire [missile] struck.”

  A military official involved in the operation corroborated the man’s account when he spoke to the site on condition of anonymity. While the Afghan with the radio who they were originally targeting – whose name or connection to the Taliban was never discovered – drove off through the smoke like a “Bond villain,” the official said the “two adults and a toddler on the other motorcycle…were killed right off.”

  Barack Obama vastly expanded the use of armed drones for counterterrorism during his time in office, leading to killing roughly 3,797 people in various countries. Part of the problem, the soldiers said, is that the military has shifted from using intelligence-driven targeting, to a more aggressive target-acquisition criteria based on what an individual might be carrying – a weapon, or a suspicious looking radio or some other instrument of terror.

  To put it directly, when it comes to waging war by drone, it looks like the Biden Administration has picked up where President Obama left off.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 20:20

• Tropics Heat Up As New Storm Likely To Form In Caribbean With Sights On US Gulf Coast
  Tropics Heat Up As New Storm Likely To Form In Caribbean With Sights On US Gulf Coast

  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) monitors three tropical disturbances on Wednesday, with one in the Caribbean Sea and two in the Atlantic Basin.

  

  NHC Miami is closely watching Disturbance 1 over the eastern Caribbean Sea, which could form into a tropical depression by the late weekend as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasts show formation chances over the next 48 hours is 40%, but over the next five days, the figure is 80%. 

  A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located over northwestern Colombia and the south-central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to move near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday, and move into the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday where conditions could be favorable for additional development to occur.

  * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent. 

  * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

  It’s still too early in the development of the low-pressure system over the eastern Caribbean Sea to forecast the impacts the system may have next week in the western Gulf Coast. However, The Weather Channel suggests “interests from Louisiana and Texas to Mexico should monitor its progress closely the next several days until the forecast comes into greater focus.” 

  The Weather Channel models a cone of uncertainty for Disturbance 1 that shows it may hit the Yucatán Peninsula. Last week, Hurricane Grace made landfall near Cancún. 

  

  The next two storms will be named Ida and Julian. The other disturbances are in the Atlantic Basin and appear not to be a threat at the moment. 

  What’s unclear is the storm’s intensity and trajectory in the coming days when it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 20:00

• Watch: Tucker Carlson Warns "Elitist Authoritarians" Are Intent On Making Us All "Shut Up And Obey"
  Watch: Tucker Carlson Warns “Elitist Authoritarians” Are Intent On Making Us All “Shut Up And Obey”

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  Fox News host Tucker Carlson issued a stark warning Tuesday, emphasising that “we’re seeing now what happens when countries tolerate authoritarians, even for a moment” as people worldwide are being told to submit to increasingly draconian “rules” in the wake of the pandemic.

  

  Carlson noted:

  “Has there ever been a clearer window into the society they’re trying to build? Our formerly middle-class nation now has a serf class. They’re the ones wearing the masks, being forced to take drugs they don’t want, being told not to communicate with one another, except through digital channels the Democratic Party controls.”

  He continued,

  “We now have two groups of Americans, not a broad middle. The favored and the unfavored. The saved and the damned. The vaccinated and the unvaccinated. That’s how the architects of all this see the country.”

  Carlson also pointed to former NSA head Michael Hayden’s assertion that Trump supporters should be sent to Afghanistan to die.

  “That’s how contemptuous they feel about you,” Carlson noted, adding “Shut up and fetch another glass of Riesling, serf. And be sure not to breathe on me, or you’ll be deported.”

  “These are bad attitudes and are accelerating. How far can this go, you wonder?” he questioned.

  Carlson also described some of the insane policies being put into place in Australia and New Zealand, describing them as akin to North Korea.

  Watch:

  https://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=6269226001001&w=466&h=263Watch the latest video at foxnews.com

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 19:40

• White House Slams 'Soulless' Blackwater Founder Erik Prince Charging $6,500 For Kabul Evac Flight
  White House Slams ‘Soulless’ Blackwater Founder Erik Prince Charging $6,500 For Kabul Evac Flight

  Media coverage of Afghanistan has been widely centered on the thousands of Americans and Afghans who are leaving Kabul Airport on military transport jets. With the Aug. 31 deadline looming, of when U.S. military forces must withdraw from Afghanistan or face severe consequences from the Taliban (who are now armed with U.S. weapons), defense contractor and Blackwater founder Erik Prince has found a way to profit off the dire situation. 

  

  The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Prince guarantees people a seat on a charter flight out of the wartorn country for $6,500. An extra fee will apply if defense contractors extract people from their homes for safe passage to Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul. WSJ wasn’t clear on how much the extraction would cost. 

  Prince’s services come as U.S. citizens and Afghan allies are scrambling for the exits of the Taliban-controlled country.

  Other defense contractor companies are offering similar services, and some are even offering ground travel out of the country, and of course, all for a hefty fee. 

  Private rescue efforts are increasing as the U.S. military struggles around the clock to evacuate tens of thousands of people. Approximately 19,000 people have been evacuated from the country between early Tuesday and early Wednesday. White House officials are saying a total of 82,300 people have left the country. 

  

  White House press secretary Jen Psaki condemned Prince’s actions, telling reporters during her Wednesday press briefing:

  “I don’t think any human being who has a heart and soul would support efforts to profit off of people’s agony and pain if they’re trying to depart a country and fearing for their lives,” adding that “we are evacuating people free of cost because that is the right step to take and certainly we wouldn’t be supportive of profiting off people who are desperate to get out of a country.”

  .@PressSec Jen Psaki on Erik Prince offering to fly people out of Kabul for $6,500 each: “I don’t think any human being who has a heart and soul would support efforts to profit off of peoples’ agony and pain as they’re trying to depart a country.” https://t.co/qBPWqi4QvV pic.twitter.com/EV2L9QP8c3

  — The Hill (@thehill) August 25, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Biden warned Tuesday there was an “increasing risk” of a terror attack by ISIS fighters but maintained evacuations are going as plan and the U.S. will abide by the Aug. 31 deadline of complete withdraw. 

  Meanwhile, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid told Afghan citizens not to leave the country. He said, “the Afghans leaving, we are not going to allow that, and we are not even happy about it.”

  New Taliban checkpoints have made rescue efforts even harder for U.S. citizens and Afghan allies attempting to traverse city streets or highways to make their way to the airport. 

  Warren Binford, a law professor at the University of Colorado, called the evacuation “a massive underground railroad operation where, instead of running for decades, it’s literally running for a matter of hours or days.” He described the evacuation at the airport as “total chaos.” 

  “There is no way with the numbers of people on the ground that we will be able to get everybody out by Aug. 31,” said Alex Plitsas, a U.S. Army combat veteran working on rescue operations in Afghanistan.

  There’s no word yet if an extension of the withdrawal deadline will be seen. What’s worse is that Americans and Afghan allies will likely be left behind if the pullout happens at the end of this month. 

  However, the actual number of Americans still in the country remains fuzzy. Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed about 1,500 Americans are awaiting to be evacuated as of Wednesday. 

  Days ago, the US State Department texted a “final message” for those stranded in the country, alerting them that they would be “without assistance,” but minutes later was deleted. 

  Pentagon has stepped up extraction efforts with helicopter rescue missions that took troops significantly outside the airport and into the city on Wednesday. 

  Whatever happened to the military motto: “No man left behind”? Or what about no American or ally left behind?? 

  Suppose the withdraw deadline isn’t extended and troops pull out. In that case, the Taliban will be on a hunting spree using left behind U.S. military biometric devices to search for Americans and Afghan allies. 

  Maybe Prince’s defense firm should create an Uber-style evacuation app where defense contractors can offer their extraction expertise to those who are stranded. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 19:20

• Greenwald: The Bizarre Refusal To Apply Cost-Benefit Analysis To COVID Debates
  Greenwald: The Bizarre Refusal To Apply Cost-Benefit Analysis To COVID Debates

  Authored by Glenn Greenwald via greenwald.substack.com,

  

  In virtually every realm of public policy, Americans embrace policies which they know will kill people, sometimes large numbers of people. They do so not because they are psychopaths but because they are rational: they assess that those deaths that will inevitably result from the policies they support are worth it in exchange for the benefits those policies provide. This rational cost-benefit analysis, even when not expressed in such explicit or crude terms, is foundational to public policy debates — except when it comes to COVID, where it has been bizarrely declared off-limits.

  The quickest and most guaranteed way to save hundreds of thousands of lives with policy changes would be to ban the use of automobiles, or severely restrict their usage to those authorized by the state on the ground of essential need (e.g., ambulances or food-delivery vehicles), or at least lower the nationwide speed limit to 25 mph. Any of those policies would immediately prevent huge numbers of human beings from dying. Each year, according to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), “1.35 million people are killed on roadways around the world,” while “crashes are a leading cause of death in the United States for people aged 1–54.” Even with seat belts and airbags, a tragic number of life-years are lost given how many young people die or are left permanently and severely disabled by car accidents. Studies over the course of decades have demonstrated that even small reductions in speed limits save many lives, while radical reductions — supported by almost nobody — would eliminate most if not all deaths from car crashes.

  

  Given how many deaths and serious injuries would be prevented, why is nobody clamoring for a ban on cars, or at least severe restrictions on who can drive (essential purposes only) or how fast (25 mph)? Is it because most people are just sociopaths who do not care about the huge number of lives lost by the driving policies they support, and are perfectly happy to watch people die or be permanently maimed as long as their convenience is not impeded? Is it because they do not assign value to the lives of other people, and therefore knowingly support policies — allowing anyone above 15 years old to drive, at high speeds — that will kill many children along with adults?

  That may explain the motivation scheme for a few people, but in general, the reason is much simpler and less sinister. It is because we employ a rational framework of cost-benefit analysis, whereby, when making public policy choices, we do not examine only one side of the ledger (number of people who will die if cars are permitted) but also consider the immense costs generated by policies that would prevent those deaths (massive limits on our ability to travel, vastly increased times to get from one place to another, restrictions on what we can experience in our lives, enormous financial costs from returning to the pre-automobile days). So foundational is the use of this cost-benefit analysis that it is embraced and touted by everyone from right-wing economists to the left-wing European environmental policy group CIVITAS, which defines it this way:

  Social Cost Benefit Analysis [is] a decision support tool that measures and weighs various impacts of a project or policy. It compares project costs (capital and operating expenses) with a broad range of (social) impacts, e.g. travel time savings, travel costs, impacts on other modes, climate, safety, and the environment.

  This framework, above all else, precludes an absolutist approach to rational policy-making. We never opt for a society-altering policy on the ground that “any lives saved make it imperative to embrace” precisely because such a primitive mindset ignores all the countervailing costs which this life-saving policy would generate (including, oftentimes, loss of life as well: banning planes, for instance, would save lives by preventing deaths from airplane crashes, but would also create its own new deaths by causing more people to drive cars).

  While arguments are common about how this framework should be applied and which specific policies are ideal, the use of cost-benefit analysis as the primary formula we use is uncontroversial — at least it was until the COVID pandemic began. It is now extremely common in Western democracies for large factions of citizens to demand that any measures undertaken to prevent COVID deaths are vital, regardless of the costs imposed by those policies. Thus, this mentality insists, we must keep schools closed to avoid the contracting by children of COVID regardless of the horrific costs which eighteen months or two years of school closures impose on all children.

  It is impossible to overstate the costs imposed on children of all ages from the sustained, enduring and severe disruptions to their lives justified in the name of COVID. Entire books could be written, and almost certainly will be, on the multiple levels of damage children are sustaining, some of which — particularly the longer-term ones — are unknowable (long-term harms from virtually every aspect of COVID policies — including COVID itself, the vaccines, and isolation measures, are, by definition, unknown). But what we know for certain is that the harms to children from anti-COVID measures are severe and multi-pronged. One of the best mainstream news accounts documenting those costs was a January, 2021 BBC article headlined “Covid: The devastating toll of the pandemic on children.”

  The “devastating toll” referenced by the article is not the death count from COVID for children, which, even in the world of the Delta variant, remains vanishingly small. The latest CDC data reveals that the grand total of children under 18 who have died in the U.S. from COVID since the start of the pandemic sixteen months ago is 361 — in a country of 330 million people, including 74.2 million people under 18. Instead, the “devastating toll” refers to multi-layered harm to children from the various lockdowns, isolation measures, stay-at-home orders, school closures, economic suffering and various other harms that have come from policies enacted to prevent the spread of the virus:

  From increasing rates of mental health problems to concerns about rising levels of abuse and neglect and the potential harm being done to the development of babies, the pandemic is threatening to have a devastating legacy on the nation’s young. . . .

  The closure of schools is, of course, damaging to children’s education. But schools are not just a place for learning. They are places where kids socialize, develop emotionally and, for some, a refuge from troubled family life.

  Prof Russell Viner, president of the Royal College of Pediatrics and Child Health, perhaps put it most clearly when he told MPs on the Education Select Committee earlier this month: “When we close schools we close their lives.”

  The richer you are, the less likely you are to be affected by these harms from COVID restrictions. Wealth allows people to leave their homes, hire private tutors, temporarily live in the countryside or mountains, or enjoy outdoor space at home. It is the poor and the economically deprived who bear the worst of these deprivations, which — along with not having children at all — may be one reason they are assigned little to no weight in mainstream discourse.

  “The stress the pandemic has put on families, with rising levels of unemployment and financial insecurity combined with the stay-at-home orders, has put strain on home life up and down the land,” the BBC notes. But even for adults and those who are middle-class and above, severe and sustained isolation from community and life is bound to produce serious mental health harms, as two mental health experts I interviewed all the way back in April, 2020, warned.

  

  None of this is to say that these are easy calculations. How COVID deaths or hospitalizations are weighed against the grave harms from anti-COVID restrictions is a complex question, one that almost certainly yields different answers in different countries and cultures. It may even yield a different policy answer in the same country as the virus and the social conditions which COVID produces evolve. One can debate how the contagiousness of COVID compares to the huge number of people who lose their lives or ability to lead healthy lives every year (so often, this argument is met with the more or less accurate but irrelevant distinction that COVID is contagious while car accidents are not: how does that bear on one’s willingness to endorse road policies (such as allowing driving cars at high speeds) that will inevitably kill large numbers of people or one’s refusal to consider the countervailing costs of anti-COVID measures?).

  Put another way, this is not an argument in favor of or against any particular policy undertaken in the name of fighting COVID. What it is, instead, is an attempt to highlight the pervasive and deeply misguided refusal to assign any costs to the harms caused by anti-COVID policies themselves.

  Perhaps this irrational mindset is explainable by the fact that COVID hospitalizations and deaths are more dramatic than the more insidious, lurking harms from sustained life disruptions. Perhaps the rapidly declining rates of child-rearing in the West make it more difficult to observe or care about the damage all of this is doing to the developmental abilities and mental health of children. Perhaps other factors — from a psychological desire for parental protection in the form of authoritarian power or a warped sense of “safetyism” — is rendering any cost-benefit analysis morally unacceptable. None of those speculative theories, however, accounts for the virtually unanimous refusal to consider a ban on cars or a 25 mph nationwide speed limit; that willingness to sacrifice huge numbers of lives by opposing life-saving automobile policies seems driven by the inconvenience such policies would impose on particular groups of people.

  Whatever is true about motives, what is unacceptable — sociopathic, really — is the insistence on assigning severe costs to just one side of the ledger (harms from COVID itself) while categorically refusing to recognize let alone value the costs on the other side of the ledger (from severe, enduring anti-COVID disruptions to and restrictions on life). Given the reflexive rage that is produced when one tries to make this argument — what immediately emerges are accusations that one is indifferent to COVID deaths — I wanted to walk through the evidence and rationale demonstrating why this approach is reckless, immoral and irrational. That is the argument I examine in both this article and in the 30-minute video I produced for Rumble (which you can view on the player below, for now in a YouTube format, pending Substack’s enabling of the embedding of our Rumble videos).

  (Note that this is the first video we produced in our new studio; we are aware that the studio lighting still needs serious adjustments (though the audio is now perfected); and we will soon provide transcripts for all videos we produce which exceed ten minutes for those who prefer to read rather than watch).

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 19:00

• Scientists Race To Unlock Mysteries Of "COVID Resistance" Seen In Small Number Of People
  Scientists Race To Unlock Mysteries Of “COVID Resistance” Seen In Small Number Of People

  Like with virtually every other virus (including HIV), it appears a tiny fraction of the human population are mysteriously immune to the virus. And after a nearly two-year pandemic, scientists are starting to confirm cases of this type of resistance as they seek to study it and learn more about the virus.

  Specifically, one scientist in Brazil who has been studying genetic viral immunity (the theory is that the key to the immunity lies within the individual’s genetic makeup) for years turned her attention to COVID at the beginning of the pandemic. For a study, she managed to gather 100 couples experiencing “discordant” COVID infection (a “discordant” infection occurs when COVID infects one partner, but not the other, despite them being physically intimate and sharing the same living quarters) to test their DNA, Stat News reports.

  

  There’s a difference between patients who are resistance to the virus, and patients who become infected, but are asymptomatic. For many healthier patients, their immune systems will spontaneously clear the irus shortly after infection, preventing them from developing the actual disease that is COVID. These people will typically test positive when tested for antibodies.

  Patients who have viral resistance clear the virus before SARS-CoV-2 enters the body’s cells, preventing infection entirely.

  The Brazilian scientists aren’t the only team studying viral resistance as it pertains to COVID. A team of scientists at NYU and the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai were the first to report finding genes potentially involved in COVID resistance. During the research, the scientists used a CRISPR genome editing technology to disable each of 20,000 human genes in lung cells before exposing them to SARS-CoV-2. Most of the cells died within a few days. “Anything that lives,” one of the scientists explained, “is clearly missing something essential for a virus, and so potentially has a significant gene mutation.”

  In theory, this discovery could help with the development of a genetic therapy that would work by inhibiting the genes that assist with facilitating infection.

  In January 2021, the group published a paper in Cell, reporting that RAB7A, a gene important for the movement of cargo from inside the cell to the cell surface, topped their quantitative ranking of genes the coronavirus can’t do without. Inhibiting RAB7A reduces SARS-CoV-2 infection by ensuring ACE2 receptors are retained inside the cell, making them unavailable as the required point of attachment for the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 (which attaches and then enters the cell).

  Although mutations in RAB7A are very rare, according to Sanjana, drugs that inhibit this gene or others required for viral infection could, in theory, be used as a treatment or even be used as a post-exposure prophylactic.

  “Amazingly,” Sanjana said, “we found many genes whose loss reduces viral infection. For a subset of these, we identified existing drugs that can be repurposed to inhibit these genes. Some of them are already FDA-approved.”

  To be sure, it’s not clear yet whether this discovery will lead to the development of a related therapeutic. A genetic mutation that blocks HIV infection was discovered years ago, yet no pharmaceutical company as found a workable way to make people resistance to HIV.

  Pfizer, Moderna and other vaccine purveyors have plenty of reason to oppose development of a gene-therapy cure for COVID, since it might undermine their vaccine business.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 18:40

• New Rules From Treasury Department: Free Rent If You Attest You Need It
  New Rules From Treasury Department: Free Rent If You Attest You Need It

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

  To speed up disbursement of allocated but unused rental assistance, the Treasury Department today announced new rules.

  

  New Rules

  Over 90% of the rent assistance money allocated to prevent evictions and halt evictions is still unused.

  Meanwhile evictions remain halted in many states while landlords go unpaid. 

  Today the Treasury Department announced Seven New Policies to Encourage State and Local Governments to Expedite Emergency Rental Assistance.

  1. Self-attestation can be used in documenting each aspect of a household’s eligibility for ERA, including with respect to: a) financial hardship, b) the risk of homelessness or housing instability, and c) income

  2. During the public health emergency, state and local ERA programs may rely on self-attestation alone to document household income eligibility when documentation is not available. 

  3. State and local grantees may advance assistance to landlords and utility providers based on estimated eligible arears.

  4. State and local grantees may enter into partnership with nonprofits to deliver advance assistance to households at risk of eviction while their applications are still being processed. 

  5. Grantees may make additional rent payments to landlords that take on tenants facing major barriers to securing a lease, including those who have been evicted or experienced homelessness in the past year.

  6. Past arrears at previous addresses may be covered. To remove barriers a household may face in accessing new housing if they have outstanding debt in collection, Treasury’s guidance makes clear that state and local grantees may—at an eligible tenant’s request—provide assistance to cover remaining rental or utility arrears at a previous address.

  7. A tenant’s costs associated with obtaining a hearing or appealing an order of eviction may be covered with ERA funds as an eligible “other expense.”

  Landlords Unpaid

  Many landlords have not been paid since March of 2020. That’s 17 months of unpaid rent while some squatters take advantage.

  

  There is no provision for landlords to file. 

  On July 29, I commented At Least 12 Million Face Eviction as Moratorium Ends.

  And despite the Supreme Court clearing the way for more evictions, many states extended moratoriums. 

  As long as eviction moratoriums continue, many tenants do not give a damn. I also suspect a lot of fraud. Why work or pay rent if you don’t have to?

  *  *  *

  Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 18:20

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• Glasgow Landlord Tries Renting Their "Sh*tter Out As A Micro-Office"
  Glasgow Landlord Tries Renting Their “Sh*tter Out As A Micro-Office”

  A landlord in central Glasgow has converted a bathroom into a “micro-office” that offers a toilet, a mini-fridge, a desk and lamp, and a window for rent, according to Daily Mail. 

  The compact office space or what appears to be a bathroom, is listed on the British-based online classified advertisement website “Gumtree” for $70 per week, or about $280 per month.

  The ad reads:

  “Small and compact space ideal for solo working. 

  “Located on the 1st floor of a tenement building in Partick, the space has its own private entrance. 

  “Included is fibre broadband connection, 2 x desks, mini fridge, toilet and sink, underfloor heating, lamps, mains supply, kettle. 

  “It’s a nice quiet spot and was recently converted.  

  “Available from 8am to 6pm Mon to Fri and would provide keys to longer term renters.”

  

  Since the listing was posted on Gumtree more than a month ago it has received nothing but harsh comments on social media. 

  “Someone in Partick is renting their s***er out as an office,” one person wrote in response to the ad.

  Another joked: “Zoom calls on the throne”.

  “Kay where is the shower? What about wet paperwork? There is a claim there waiting to happen,” a third questioned.

  The micro-office located in a bathroom comes to light after social media users were outraged when another landlord in Glasgow attempted to rent out a two-bedroom apartment for around $1350 per month with a missing kitchen. 

  Landlordism is certainly peaking as rents in a post-COVID world are soaring in big cities, not just in the UK but across the Western world. In one of the hottest real estate markets, a landlord in Vancouver converted a bathroom into a “micro-studio” for $680 per month.  

  Ponzi scheme master Bernie Madoff’s jail cell was bigger than the micro-office – and his rent was free. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 02:45

• Spain's Supreme Court Rules Against Using Vaccine Passports To Restrict Access To Public Spaces
  Spain’s Supreme Court Rules Against Using Vaccine Passports To Restrict Access To Public Spaces

  Authored by Nick Corbishley via NakedCapitalism.com,

  It’s the first time a high court of a European Member State has challenged the use of vaccine passports domestically. 

  

  Spain’s Supreme Court made waves last week by becoming the first judicial authority in Europe to rule against the use of covid passports to restrict access to public spaces — specifically hospitality businesses (bars, restaurants and nightclubs). It is not the first Spanish court to come out against vaccine passports but it is the most important. So far, only five of Spain’s 17 autonomous regions – the Canary Islands, Ceuta and Melilla, Andalusia, Cantabria and Galicia – have proposed using vaccine passports to restrict access to public spaces. And all have been rejected by local judges.

  The EU’s Green Pass is a one-piece QR-code document that can be issued to a traveller in both paper and digital format. It is intended to prove that the holder has either received one of the four vaccines authorised by the European Medicine Agency (BioNTech-Pfizer’s, Moderna’s, AztraZeneca’s and Johnson &Johnson’s), has tested negative for Covid-19 in the last 48 hours or has been infected with Covid in the last six months and therefore has natural immunity. However, some countries such as France have chosen only to allow entry to travellers that are fully vaccinated.

  Many government are also using the documents to limit access for unvaccinated citizens to public spaces and services with their own countries. But so far Spanish judges have challenged this trend, on the grounds that it would infringe on certain constitutionally recognised individual rights, such as the right to physical integrity and privacy, while also having limited impact on public health. The Supreme Courts of Andalusia and Ceuta and Melilla said the measures were also discriminatory. When the Supreme Court of Andalusia sided with local hospitality businesses in their appeal against the region’s proposed vaccine passport measures, the regional authority took the case to the national Supreme Court. And lost.

  Economic considerations may have also played a part in the courts’ decision. Spain’s hospitality sector generates a huge amount of money and a huge number of jobs, especially during the peak tourist season (i.e., right now). The sector has already been through the grinder of last year’s three-month national lockdown as well as sporadic regional lockdowns. Even with the introduction of vaccine passports, overseas visitors continue to arrive in dribs and drabs. As was the case last year, it’s domestic demand that is keeping many businesses alive. And limiting that demand is likely to create even more economic pain. 

  Constitutional Clashes

  But this is not the first time that Spain’s government and regional authorities have clashed with the judiciary over the management of the public health crisis. Since Spain ended its state of alarm on May 9th, the high courts in the Valencia region, the Balearic islands, Catalonia, the Canary Islands and other parts of Spain have prevented regional authorities from applying a range of anti-Covid restrictions, including curfews and limits on social gatherings, on the grounds that it’s unconstitutional to breach fundamental rights when there’s no longer a state of alarm.

  Then, on July 14, Spain’s top judicial body, the Constitutional Court, delivered another hammer blow, by ruling that Spain’s coronavirus state of alarm had been unconstitutional all along. The government, it said, should instead have called for a state of emergency – which requires prior parliamentary approval – to curtail fundamental rights for the nationwide lockdown.

  In its August 18 ruling, against using the Digital Covid Certificate to grant or deny access to nightlife venues, the Supreme Court said there wasn’t enough “substantial justification” for the requirement of a health pass in bars and nightclubs across the entire region of Andalusia, seeing it more as a “preventative measure” rather than a necessary action. Instead, it said the measure “restrictively affects basic elements of freedom of movement and the right of assembly.”

  Interestingly, the Supreme Court also said that using vaccine passports to control access to public spaces and services may not even help prevent infections. In fact, it may exacerbate them, given that recent research has shown that people who have been vaccinated or previously infected with Covid-19 can still catch and spread the virus. As such, implementing a vaccine passport system does not protect others from infection, including those who gain access to a public space by presenting a negative result of a PCR test. Such a document, the court said, “only proves that at the time of the test these people were not carrying the active virus”.

  By now it is clear, as Yves laid out meticulously on Friday, that the vaccines are not what they were cracked up to be. Their efficacy fades quickly and is particularly depleted against the Delta variant. Research has also shown that the virus loads of the vaccinated and the unvaccinated are almost identical with regard to the Delta variant. As such, if a vaccinated person and an unvaccinated person have roughly the same capacity to carry, shed and transmit the virus, particularly in its Delta form, what difference does implementing a vaccination passport, certificate or ID actually make to the spread of the virus?

  This is a question that many of the people who attended the Boardmasters’ Music Festival in the UK may now be asking themselves. To attend the event they needed to prove, with their NHS Pass, a recent negative test, full vaccination or Covid infection in the past 180 days — in other words, almost exactly the same conditions required by the EU’s Green Pass. The event’s organizers seem to have done everything by the book yet roughly one week after the festival, almost 5,000 Covid cases had been potentially linked to the event. The city where it was held, Newquay, became England’s “Covid capital”, registering up to 1,110 cases per 100,000 people in the week ending August 14 — nearly four times the average rate in the country. 

  Fierce Public Opposition

  In the wake of the Spanish Supreme Court’s ruling there is probably little point in any of Spain’s 17 regional governments even trying to use Covid health passes in their territories for any purpose other than travel abroad. If such measures were introduced, they would only be in force for a brief period before a court shelved them.

  It’s a very different story across the rest of the EU. Even as the evidence grows that the current crop of vaccines are not very effective at limiting the spread of the Delta variant and that so-called “breakthrough cases” are not nearly as rare as the term would suggest, most governments are accelerating and expanding their use of vaccine passports and mandates. Twenty-two out of 27 EU Member States already require hospitality green passes or similar health passports to enter restaurants, bars, museums, libraries and other public places.

  In France those without a pass are banned from the outside terraces of cafes, bars and restaurants. They are not even allowed to enter hospitals, apart from for emergency procedures. By the end of August many private-sector workers who serve the public have to be vaccinated. The jab will also become mandatory for all French health workers by Sept. 15. The government insists the pass is necessary to encourage vaccination uptake and avoid a fourth national lockdown. But for many protesters the new legislation represents everything a constitutional republic like France should stand against: authoritarian control, discrimination, denial of access to basic freedoms and services, education and healthcare.

  Opposition among the vaccine hesitant remains fierce. For a sixth straight Saturday, hundreds of thousands of people turned out in towns and cities across France to vent their fury at the government’s increasingly repressive vaccine laws. If anything, the demonstrations are likely to intensify in the coming weeks, as students — often a vital cog in French protest movements — return to university and vaccine-reluctant public workers begin to contemplate life without an income.

  Large demonstrations have also taken place in Italy, Greece and Germany. In Latvia’s capital, Riga, 5,000 people took to the streets on Wednesday night to protest government plans to make vaccination mandatory for certain professions and allow employers to fire workers who refuse to get jabbed. It was reported to be the largest demonstration in Latvia since 2009.

  A Kafkaesque Twist

  In Spain, meanwhile, everything is rather quiet. There are few protests against the vaccine passports, since their impact on daily life has not been felt. Most people over the age of 30 are quite happy to get vaccinated — so much so that Spain, with 67% of its population fully vaccinated, places fourth on Oxford University’s Our World in Data’s ranking of the world’s most vaccinated countries. What’s more, Spain is yet to see its vaccine campaign stall, as has already happened in countries such as the US, Israel, Germany and France.

  Given that Spanish residents are getting vaccinated in such large numbers, there’s arguably even less need to use vaccine passports domestically. Fernando García López, the president of the Research Ethics Committee at the Carlos III Health Institute in Madrid, argues that is better to “convince rather than coerce, something that can polarize,” adding that in Spain, “there is no major anti-vaccination group against which we need to fight, as is happening in other places.

  But that hasn’t stopped the passports from already creating a Kafkaesque nightmare for thousands of Spanish residents. During the latest wave of the virus, the country’s primary care service became so swamped that doctors and nurses in many parts of the country began using the much faster (and much cheaper) antigen tests to check patients for infection. The only problem is that to qualify for the EU’s health certificate on the grounds of natural infection, you need to have had a positive PCR test; the results of antigen tests are not recognised.

  And that means there are now thousands of people in Spain who are in limbo. They have all had a recent Covid infection, which means they should have natural immunity. And that means they should qualify for the EU’s Green Pass. But because Spain’s health authorities used the wrong test on them (presumably by mistake), they don’t. According to the EU these people never had Covid. Unless Brussels makes an exception for them, which is looking pretty unlikely, they will now have more difficulty travelling to other parts of Europe.

  It’s just one example of how arbitrary life can become in the “new normality” taking shape around us. As governments exert greater power and authority over our lives, all it takes is a simple administrative mistake for members of the public to suddenly find themselves unable to enter other European countries or even access public places and basic services in their home town. And as we’ve repeatedly seen since this pandemic began, governments and public authorities are prone to making mistakes pretty regularly.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 02:00

• The Dangers Of Going Back To School After A Year Of COVID-19 Lockdowns
  The Dangers Of Going Back To School After A Year Of COVID-19 Lockdowns

  Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “Every day in communities across the United States, children and adolescents spend the majority of their waking hours in schools that have increasingly come to resemble places of detention more than places of learning.”

  – Investigative journalist Annette Fuentes

  Once upon a time in America, parents breathed a sigh of relief when their kids went back to school after a summer’s hiatus, content in the knowledge that for a good portion of the day their kids would be gainfully occupied, out of harm’s way and out of trouble.

  

  Those were the good old days, before the COVID-19 pandemic introduced a whole new level of Nanny State authoritarianism to our daily lives, locking down communities, forcing kids out of the schoolroom and into virtual classrooms, leaving vast swaths of the work force dependent on government welfare, while pushing other segments into a work-from-home model, and generally subjecting us to an increasingly obnoxious level of intrusion by the government into our private lives.

  Now, after almost 18 months away from a physical classroom, students are heading back to school.

  Here’s what they can expect.

  From the moment a child enters one of the nation’s 98,000 public schools to the moment he or she graduates, they will be exposed to a steady diet of:

  • draconian zero tolerance policies that criminalize childish behavior,

  • overreaching anti-bullying statutes that criminalize speech,

  • school resource officers (police) tasked with disciplining and/or arresting so-called “disorderly” students,

  • standardized testing that emphasizes rote answers over critical thinking,

  • politically correct mindsets that teach young people to censor themselves and those around them,

  • and extensive biometric and surveillance systems that, coupled with the rest, acclimate young people to a world in which they have no freedom of thought, speech or movement.

  Young people in America are now first in line to be searched, surveilled, spied on, threatened, tied up, locked down, treated like criminals for non-criminal behavior, tasered and in some cases shot.

  Nowadays, students are not only punished for minor transgressions such as playing cops and robbers on the playground, bringing LEGOs to school, or having a food fight, but the punishments have become far more severe, shifting from detention and visits to the principal’s office into misdemeanor tickets, juvenile court, handcuffs, tasers and even prison terms.

  Students have been suspended under school zero tolerance policies for bringing to school “look alike substances” such as oregano, breath mints, birth control pills and powdered sugar.

  Look-alike weapons (toy guns—even Lego-sized ones, hand-drawn pictures of guns, pencils twirled in a “threatening” manner, imaginary bows and arrows, fingers positioned like guns) can also land a student in hot water, in some cases getting them expelled from school or charged with a crime.

  Not even good deeds go unpunished.

  One 13-year-old was given detention for exposing the school to “liability” by sharing his lunch with a hungry friend. A third grader was suspended for shaving her head in sympathy for a friend who had lost her hair to chemotherapy. And then there was the high school senior who was suspended for saying “bless you” after a fellow classmate sneezed.

  In South Carolina, where it’s against the law to “disturb” a school, more than a thousand students a year—some as young as 7 years old—“face criminal charges for not following directions, loitering, cursing, or the vague allegation of acting ‘obnoxiously.’ If charged as adults, they can be held in jail for up to 90 days.”

  These outrageous incidents are exactly what you’ll see more of now that in-person school is back in session, especially once you add COVID-19 mandates to the mix.

  Having police in the schools only adds to the danger.

  Thanks to a combination of media hype, political pandering and financial incentives, the use of armed police officers (a.k.a. school resource officers) to patrol school hallways has risen dramatically in the years since the Columbine school shooting.

  Indeed, the growing presence of police in the nation’s schools is resulting in greater police “involvement in routine discipline matters that principals and parents used to address without involvement from law enforcement officers.”

  Funded by the U.S. Department of Justice, these school resource officers (SRO) have become de facto wardens in elementary, middle and high schools, doling out their own brand of justice to the so-called “criminals” in their midst with the help of tasers, pepper spray, batons and brute force.

  In the absence of school-appropriate guidelines, police are more and more “stepping in to deal with minor rulebreaking: sagging pants, disrespectful comments, brief physical skirmishes. What previously might have resulted in a detention or a visit to the principal’s office was replaced with excruciating pain and temporary blindness, often followed by a trip to the courthouse.”

  The horror stories are legion.

  One SRO was accused of punching a 13-year-old student in the face for cutting the cafeteria line.

  That same cop put another student in a chokehold a week later, allegedly knocking the student unconscious and causing a brain injury.

  In Pennsylvania, a student was tasered after ignoring an order to put his cell phone away.

  When 13-year-old Kevens Jean Baptiste failed to follow a school bus driver’s direction to keep the bus windows closed (Kevens, who suffers from asthma, opened the window after a fellow student sprayed perfume, causing him to cough and wheeze), he was handcuffed by police, removed from the bus, and while still handcuffed, had his legs swept out from under him by an officer, causing him to crash to the ground.

  Young Alex Stone didn’t even make it past the first week of school before he became a victim of the police state. Directed by his teacher to do a creative writing assignment involving a series of fictional Facebook statuses, Stone wrote, “I killed my neighbor’s pet dinosaur. I bought the gun to take care of the business.” Despite the fact that dinosaurs are extinct, the status fabricated, and the South Carolina student was merely following orders, his teacher reported him to school administrators, who in turn called the police.

  What followed is par for the course in schools today: students were locked down in their classrooms while armed police searched the 16-year-old’s locker and bookbag, handcuffed him, charged him with disorderly conduct disturbing the school, arrested him, detained him, and then he was suspended from school.

  Not even the younger, elementary school-aged kids are being spared these “hardening” tactics.

  On any given day when school is in session, kids who “act up” in class are pinned facedown on the floor, locked in dark closets, tied up with straps, bungee cords and duct tape, handcuffed, leg shackled, tasered or otherwise restrained, immobilized or placed in solitary confinement in order to bring them under “control.”

  In almost every case, these undeniably harsh methods are used to punish kids—some as young as 4 and 5 years old—for simply failing to follow directions or throwing tantrums.

  Very rarely do the kids pose any credible danger to themselves or others.

  Unbelievably, these tactics are all legal, at least when employed by school officials or school resource officers in the nation’s public schools.

  This is what happens when you introduce police and police tactics into the schools.

  Paradoxically, by the time you add in the lockdowns and active shooter drills, instead of making the schools safer, school officials have succeeded in creating an environment in which children are so traumatized that they suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder, nightmares, anxiety, mistrust of adults in authority, as well as feelings of anger, depression, humiliation, despair and delusion.

  For example, a middle school in Washington State went on lockdown after a student brought a toy gun to class. A Boston high school went into lockdown for four hours after a bullet was discovered in a classroom. A North Carolina elementary school locked down and called in police after a fifth grader reported seeing an unfamiliar man in the school (it turned out to be a parent).

  Police officers at a Florida middle school carried out an active shooter drill in an effort to educate students about how to respond in the event of an actual shooting crisis. Two armed officers, guns loaded and drawn, burst into classrooms, terrorizing the students and placing the school into lockdown mode.

  These police state tactics have not made the schools any safer.

  The fallout has been what you’d expect, with the nation’s young people treated like hardened criminals: handcuffed, arrested, tasered, tackled and taught the painful lesson that the Constitution (especially the Fourth Amendment) doesn’t mean much in the American police state.

  Unfortunately, advocates for such harsh police tactics and weaponry like to trot out the line that school safety should be our first priority lest we find ourselves with another school shooting. What they will not tell you is that such shootings are rare.

  As one congressional report found, the schools are, generally speaking, safe places for children.

  There can be no avoiding the hands-on lessons being taught in the schools about the role of police in our lives, ranging from active shooter drills and school-wide lockdowns to incidents in which children engaging in typically childlike behavior are suspended (for shooting an imaginary “arrow” at a fellow classmate), handcuffed (for being disruptive at school), arrested (for throwing water balloons as part of a school prank), and even tasered (for not obeying instructions).

  Instead of raising up a generation of freedom fighters—which one would hope would be the objective of the schools—government officials seem determined to churn out newly minted citizens of the American police state who are being taught the hard way what it means to comply, fear and march in lockstep with the government’s dictates.

  So what’s the answer, not only for the here-and-now—the children growing up in these quasi-prisons—but for the future of this country?

  How do you convince a child who has been routinely handcuffed, shackled, tied down, locked up, and immobilized by government officials—all before he reaches the age of adulthood—that he has any rights at all, let alone the right to challenge wrongdoing, resist oppression and defend himself against injustice?

  Most of all, how do you persuade a fellow American that the government works for him when, for most of his young life, he has been incarcerated in an institution that teaches young people to be obedient and compliant citizens who don’t talk back, don’t question and don’t challenge authority?

  As we’ve seen with other issues, any significant reforms will have to start locally and trickle upwards.

  For starters, parents need to be vocal, visible and organized and demand that school officials 1) adopt a policy of positive reinforcement in dealing with behavior issues; 2) minimize the presence in the schools of police officers and cease involving them in student discipline; and 3) insist that all behavioral issues be addressed first and foremost with a child’s parents, before any other disciplinary tactics are attempted.

  As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, if you want a nation of criminals, treat the citizenry like criminals.

  If you want young people who grow up seeing themselves as prisoners, run the schools like prisons.

  If, on the other hand, you want to raise up a generation of freedom fighters, who will actually operate with justice, fairness, accountability and equality towards each other and their government, then run the schools like freedom forums.

  Remove the metal detectors and surveillance cameras, re-assign the cops elsewhere, and start treating our nation’s young people like citizens of a republic and not inmates in a police state penitentiary.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/25/2021 – 00:05

• Taliban Captures US Military Biometric Devices
  Taliban Captures US Military Biometric Devices

  The Taliban’s latest offensives have been nothing short of impressive, acquiring 600,000 weapons, 75,000 vehicles, and 200 aircraft, transforming the terrorist group into a rogue military power overnight. One military device Taliban forces have sized is the U.S. military’s biometrics database that has sounded alarm bells with U.S. officials. 

  

  Called the Handheld Interagency Identity Detection Equipment (HIIDE), it was seized last week during the Taliban’s offensive, according to The Intercept, who spoke with current and former military officials. The sensitive data, now in Taliban hands, contains a biological database on the Afghan population. Some sensitive data include thousands of Afghan civilians who worked alongside U.S. Army Special Forces as interpreters. 

  

  We noted Sunday that stranded Afghans, some of whom worked for the U.S. military, are quickly deleting their social media profiles and covering up their internet presence to protect their privacy from the Taliban. 

  Taliban forces have been on a crusade to hunt and kill Afghans who worked with the U.S. military. Ever since the U.S. invaded Afghanistan two decades ago, thousands of Afghan interpreters have been hired. Since 2014, at least 300 of them and or family members have been killed. With the Taliban governing the country – many are fleeing for their lives, pleading with the U.S. military to rescue them. 

  The acquisition of HIIDE could make the Taliban’s hunt for Afghan interpreters even easier since their biometric data such as iris scans and fingerprints are in the system. 

  

  An Army Special Operations veteran, told The Intercept that Taliban computer gurus need additional computer processing to analyze HIIDE data but said Pakistan would gladly assist with this effort. “The Taliban doesn’t have the gear to use the data but the ISI do,” the former Special Operations official said, referring to Pakistan’s spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence. 

  Welton Chang, chief technology officer for Human Rights First, a former Army intelligence officer, said, “I don’t think anyone ever thought about data privacy or what to do in the event the [HIIDE] system fell into the wrong hands.” 

  “Moving forward, the U.S. military and diplomatic apparatus should think carefully about whether to deploy these systems again in situations as tenuous as Afghanistan,” Chang said. 

  The security risks posed by the abandoned biometrics database are just one of the numerous consequences of a sloppy U.S. withdrawal by the Biden administration. A proper withdraw would’ve been to wipe the databases clean and destroy all devices. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 23:45

• Democratic Bill Would Ban 3D Printing Firearm Schematics
  Democratic Bill Would Ban 3D Printing Firearm Schematics

  Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

  Sen. Ed Markey’s (D-Mass.) little-known 3D Printed Gun Safety Act (S. 2319) would criminalize sharing firearm schematics for 3D printers online.

  

  3D printing describes a process that allows people to “print” 3D models for various items. These models range from small tools, art projects, and shapes up to functional firearms. Critics of the practice have called these 3D-printed firearms “ghost guns” because they lack serial numbers and are difficult for law enforcement to trace.

  Despite their relative novelty, 3D-printed firearms have a rich legal history.

  In 2018, Congress passed the Export Control Reform Act (ECRA), a foreign policy bill designed to restrict enemies’ access to U.S.-made munitions.

  In March 2020, 22 states argued that 3D firearm schematics violated ECRA because they were accessible to foreign enemies. They brought suit against Defense Distributed (D.D.), a firm that provided schematics for 3D firearms. The plaintiffs argued that these schematics would cause them “irreparable injury.” Seattle District Judge Robert Lasnik agreed and issued an injunction against D.D. (pdf).

  The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals heard the case again this year on Apr. 27. The panel concluded in a split decision that courts had no say in the matter, asserting that “Congress expressly precluded judicial review … here,” and overturned the injunction against D.D. (pdf).

  After this decision, the Justice Department proposed new regulations on 3D-printed guns. First, retailers would be required to run a background check on customers before selling kits containing necessary materials to print a firearm. Second, kits would be required to include a serial number on the frame or the receiver to make them more traceable. Finally, firearms dealers would be mandated to add a serial number to any guns they bought that did not have one.

  Markey’s S.2319 would concretize federal rules against the distribution of 3D gun files. The bill alleges that these schematics “increase the risk that … felons, domestic abusers, and other people prohibited from possessing firearms under Federal law, will obtain a firearm through 3D printing.” Because these 3D guns are not traceable, S.2319 says, they are appealing to criminals.

  S.2319 goes on to warn that such schematics “threaten to undermine the entire Federal firearms regulatory scheme and to endanger public safety and national security.” To address this alleged risk, the bill would make it “unlawful for any person to intentionally distribute … code that can automatically program a 3-dimensional printer or similar device to produce a firearm or complete a firearm from an unfinished frame or receiver.”

  Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) joined Markey in introducing the bill in the Senate. In a press release, Markey said of the bill:

  “With no background check required, untraceable and undetectable 3D printed guns serve as the ultimate gun-acquisition loophole. With the click of a mouse, anyone can download a computer file and use a 3D printer to manufacture a semi-automatic weapon. We cannot allow the online availability of downloadable firearms to add fuel to the fire that already is a massive gun violence public safety crisis.”

  Menendez expressed the same concerns, saying: “With the click of a mouse, anyone with an internet connection and a 3D printer essentially has a license to print, shoot and kill. Undetectable and untraceable 3D-printed guns allow criminals to circumvent law enforcement and commit crimes. That’s why we must close the ‘3D Gun Loophole’ that allows dangerous individuals to exploit gaps in existing law to manufacture firearms at home they cannot otherwise legally obtain.”

  s.2319 currently has 27 Democrat co-sponsors in the Senate. As of Monday, it remains in the Judiciary Committee. Still, with so many sponsors in the Senate, it is possible that Democrats may try to move the little-known bill out of committee for floor debate at some point. Even with the numerical Democratic majority, it would face a tough battle. Earlier this year, moderate Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W. Va.) said that he opposed Democratic gun control legislation in the House. If Manchin were to defect and join Republicans, then the bill would not pass without a Republican taking Manchin’s place and joining Democrats.

  However, passing Congress would only be the first step for S.2319. Afterward, it would doubtless face legal challenges from D.D. and gun rights advocacy groups like Gun Owners of America.

  In an interview with The Epoch Times, a spokesman for the Libertarian Party criticized the bill as impractical. He asked, “How would [the government] even enforce this law?” Later, he answered his own question, saying that “It would require Soviet- and CCP- levels of control [over citizens’ lives].” He also referenced litigation revolving around the issue of 3D schematics and doubted in the wake of this litigation that the bill could survive the courts. He referenced several cases and government settlements revolving around the issue.

  In August 2017, D.D. sued the State Department and asked the U.S. Supreme Court to hear their case against it. D.D. claimed that the State Department barring their right to distribute 3D schematics online constituted a violation of the First Amendment. Though the Supreme Court declined to hear the case, the State Department eventually reached a settlement with D.D. that gave the firm a license to publish the schematics and a cash payment of $40,000. Heather Nauert, a spokesman for the State Department, said in a press conference that the agency agreed to this decision because “We were informed that we … have likely lost this case in court … on First Amendment grounds.”

  In 1996, the Ninth Circuit Appellate Court ruled that source code was protected under the First Amendment (Bernstein v. U.S.). Because schematics like those provided by D.D. are a type of source code, standing U.S. law would prohibit restrictions like those found in S.2319.

  Thus, the law would raise criticisms as a violation of the First Amendment. And indeed, the law’s authors had a preconception of this risk. The final clause in Sec. 3 of the bill says that “by making illegal the distribution of certain computer code that can be used … [to] create firearms … Congress seeks not to regulate the rights of computer programmers under the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States, but rather to curb the pernicious effects of untraceable … firearms.”

  Though the Supreme Court has refused to take the case in the past, it’s almost inevitable that S.2319 would go before the highest court if this legislation were passed. The result would be a huge landmark for gun control advocates if the Supreme Court upheld the law and a huge landmark for gun rights groups if the law were struck down. Either way, the legislation will have long-lasting national consequences if it is passed by Congress and signed into law.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 23:25

• Hedge Funds Dumped Chinese Stocks At A Record Pace, Setting Stage For A Furious Rebound
  Hedge Funds Dumped Chinese Stocks At A Record Pace, Setting Stage For A Furious Rebound

  Late last week, when observing the stunning collapse in the most popular “hedge fund VIP” basket, whose 6 month performance now matches its worst stretch on record following the Lehman bankruptcy…

  

  … we pointed to Chinese stocks one of the key culprits, with Goldman noting that one third of hedge funds in Goldman’s analysis held a China ADR in their long portfolio at the start of 3Q, contributing to the recent headwinds against hedge fund returns. Specifically, since the middle of February, a basket of China ADRs (GSXUCADR) has declined by 55%, with all but one of the stocks generating a negative return (UXIN being the exception) and 40 of the 46 stocks declining by more than 20%.

  

  Naturally, with Chinese stocks continuing to slide, many were curious if hedge funds retained their Chinese exposure.

  Well, courtesy of Goldman’s Prime Brokerage we now know the answer, and it is a decisive no. But first, some weekly performance stats from Goldman prime focusing on Asia hedge fund exposure:

  Performance Estimates (WoW as of 20th August 2021): Steep performance drawdowns last week as well as for the MTD period amid continued regulatory concerns

  Asia Fundamental LS -2.4% vs. MXAP -4.4%

  • Asia managers were down -2.4% last week as MXAP was down -4.4%. Along with beta, the main drivers of negative returns were Asset selection, Volatility, country tilts (China) and Concentrated Longs.
  • MTD -1.3% vs. MXAP -3.1%.
  • YTD -1.6% vs. MXAP -3.3%.

  China Fundamental LS -3.2% vs. MSCI China -7.8%

  After a few relatively calm weeks at the beginning of the month, China managers experienced steep negative performance of -3.2% as MSCI China was down -7.8% last week. Main Drivers of negative performance were beta, Volatility, Concentrated and Crowded Longs and short term momentum.

  • MTD -3.9% vs. MSCI China -7.6%.
  • YTD -5.1% vs. MSCI China -19.0%.

  

  In light of these massive drawdowns, it is then hardly surprising that trading flows were striking, and according to Goldman, last week saw the second highest weekly net selling for Asian equities in over 5 years, the highest ever selling for EM Asia, while Asian equities in total, saw record weekly net selling flows last week.

  • Asia was net sold WoW (-2.7 SD) with long sells exceeding short sells marginally in a ratio of 1.1 to 1.
  • DM Asia was net sold (-1.1 SD) driven by short sells exceeding long buys significantly
  • The record selling activity in EM Asia (-2.7 SD) was driven by long sells exceeding short sells in a ratio of 2.6 to 1.
  • 10 out of 11 sectors were net sold last week – only Utilities was marginally net bought. The most net sold sectors were Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services and Info Tech.
  • MTD Flows for August also point to record monthly selling flows in the region with risk off activity in EM Asia.
  • Charts below focus on Chinese equities and show the cumulative trading flows by leg and type. Selling flows in the MTD period have been driven significantly more by ADRs, followed by A-shares and then by H shares.

  

  With flows a one-way street of selling, it is only logical that exposure likewise saw a major hit, with continued reduction in Gross and Net leverages for Asia fundamental managers, resulting current levels last seen in April 2020.

  The numbers for the Asia Client Book (Delta-Adjusted) according to GS prime:

  • Leverage: Gross -0.6 pts to 220.8% (42nd percentile three-year), Net -4.6 pts to 71.7% (51st percentile three-year)
  • Long/Short ratio (MV) -4.3% to 1.962 (49th percentile three-year)

  Asia Fundamental L/S

  • Both Gross and Net Leverages for Asia Fundamental managers continue on downward trend as seen in the recent past and are now at levels last seen in April 2020.
  • Net Leverage and L/S Ratios are at 24th and 20th percentile respectively for three year periods.
  • Leverage: Gross -5.4 pts to 175.6% (48th percentile three-year), Net -3.5 pts to 50.3% (24th percentile three-year)
  • Long/Short ratio (MV) -2.3% to 1.804 (20th percentile three-year)

  

  In short, last week is when hedge funds finally – and fully – capitulated in their Chinese (and Asian) exposure. And with little to no liquidation pressure left, it was obvious that Chinese stocks would ramp higher and on Wednesday equities stormed higher in Hong Kong, after the local Hang Seng index slid into to a bear market last Friday, surging for a third day while Chinese tech stocks also rebounded.

  

  One of the more iconic casualties of the crackdowns — the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index – soared 8% overnight, after solid results from JD.com lured investors including Cathie Wood.

  In fact, so furious is the rebound in Chinese tech that as Bloomberg’s Sofia Horta e Costa observed, investors are turning into speculative call-buying WSB daytraders, and are piling into bullish derivatives. To wit, sixteen of the company’s 20 most-traded Hong Kong stock options on Tuesday were calls, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

  One such contract, expiring Aug. 30 with a strike price of HK$200, jumped 400% on Tuesday (when Alibaba closed at HK$166.50 ) and saw another 120% of upside so far on Wednesday. 

  

  It was similar in the U.S., where about 700,000 call options changed hands, the most this year and more than double the volume of bearish puts. The trading activity follows a 21%, nine-day rout that dragged Alibaba to the lowest price since its 2019 Hong Kong listing, exacerbated by the abovementioned redemptions from China-focused funds.

  Bottom line: with nobody left to sell, look for much more upside in Chinese tech names at least until Beijing pulls another shocker out of its sleeve and the liquidation returns with a vengeance.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 23:05

• Dozens Of Veterans Groups Livid Over Botched Afghanistan Pullout, 'Urgently' Demand Meeting With Biden
  Dozens Of Veterans Groups Livid Over Botched Afghanistan Pullout, ‘Urgently’ Demand Meeting With Biden

  Authored by Masooma Haq via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  On Monday, a group of nearly four dozen veteran organizations requested a meeting with President Joe Biden to discuss the evacuation of U.S. partners in Afghanistan and “fulfilling our commitment to our Afghan allies.”

  “Failing to meet our obligations to these Afghans would not only be a national security risk – harming America’s reputation abroad and eroding the trust in our armed forces that is critical for future operations – it would also condemn veterans and survivors of the conflict in Afghanistan to a lifetime of moral injury,” the group wrote in their letter to Biden.

  

  Forty-five organizations signed a letter to Biden, urging him to agree to a virtual meeting. The coalition wants to ensure there is a comprehensive plan to get all citizens and allies out of the country and say they want to assist in every way possible. In addition, the group wants Biden to ensure that all allies are granted emergency status to enter the United States and have access to resettlement benefits.

  The Taliban seized the Afghan capital, Kabul, on Aug. 15 as the Afghan government collapsed and top government officials fled the country, prompting a frenzied evacuation of U.S. diplomats, citizens, and allies from the country.

  After the closure of Bagram Airbase and withdrawal of all U.S. military troops, Biden was forced to deploy 6,000 troops to help secure the Kabul airport as thousands of Afghans flooded the airport to flee Taliban rule. Biden has faced sharp bipartisan criticism for his handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal.

  Many, including veteran groups, have urged Biden to spare no resources to evacuate U.S. citizens and allies who supported the United States’ effort in Afghanistan. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday that Biden’s top administration officials have reached out to the organizers of the letter and will meet with the coalition.

  “We’ve been in regular contact with a wide range of veterans groups on Afghanistan and will continue to be, and we’re in touch with the organizers of this letter to arrange a meeting with senior White House officials to discuss this letter,” said Psaki, adding, “The VA [Veterans Affairs] is also working with VSOs and outside advocates on how to assist SIV [Special Immigrant Visa] applicants, which I know is a primary concern to a number of these groups, as it is to us.”

  National security adviser Jake Sullivan told a reporter during the same press briefing Monday that the United States is working around the clock to get people out of Afghanistan.

  “They [the U.S. military] have now facilitated the evacuation of more than 37,000 people out of the country since Aug. 14—American citizens, third-country nationals, our Afghan allies, and Afghans at risk of persecution or worse. In the last 24 hours alone, 28 U.S. military flights have evacuated approximately 10,400 people from Kabul.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 22:45

• Supreme Court Rules Biden Admin Must Resume Trump's "Remain In Mexico" Policy
  Supreme Court Rules Biden Admin Must Resume Trump’s “Remain In Mexico” Policy

  The Supreme Court ruled late Tuesday against the Biden administration, upholding a lower court’s ruling to order the resumption of the “Remain in Mexico” policy implemented by the Trump administration,which requires people seeking asylum to wait in Mexico until their case is heard.

  

  In a 6-3 vote, with the three liberal justices (Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Stephen Breyer) dissenting, the court rejected the administration’s plea to block the reinstatement of the program, which requires immigrants seeking asylum at the southern border to wait in Mexico while their applications are pending.

  The order stated the Biden administration acted in an “arbitrary and capricious” manner when the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP) program (the official name of the ‘Remain In Mexico’ program) was rescinded.

  

  The Biden administration formally repealed the policy in June despite the crisis at the border (but in theory the policy ended the moment Biden entered The White House), and today’s Supreme Court decision rejected the administration’s bid to block U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk’s ruling that revived the enforcement of the policy.

  In a memorandum (pdf) to top immigration officials in June, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said a review determined the policy “does not adequately or sustainably enhance border management in such a way as to justify the program’s extensive operational burdens and other shortfalls.”

  

  The Justice Department had asked the court last week to suspend the lower court’s order, saying the MPP “has been formally suspended for seven months and largely dormant for nearly nine months before that.”

  As we detailed earlier in August, U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk, a Trump appointee, found The Department of Homeland Security “failed to consider several critical factors” before axing the Trump era “Remain in Mexico” policy.

  That included ignoring how the program was beginning to lead to some immigrants with asylum claims that lacked merit voluntarily returning home, he wrote in a 53-page ruling.

  Kacsmaryk said the policy must be reinstated until it was “lawfully rescinded” and the administration had the capacity to hold all migrants.

  Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, another Republican, described the ruling as a “huge win for border security and the rule of law.”

  As a reminder, The Epoch Times’ Zachary Stieber notes that the Trump administration established MPP in 2019 to deal with a surge in illegal immigration. Former President Donald Trump successfully partnered with Mexico to start the program, which saw the U.S. send some asylum seekers back to Mexico until their claims were heard.

  Kirstjen Nielsen, who served as Homeland Security secretary during the Trump administration, said when the program was first implemented that it was in response to “a security and humanitarian crisis on the Southern border.”

  “MPP will help restore a safe and orderly immigration process, decrease the number of those taking advantage of the immigration system, and the ability of smugglers and traffickers to prey on vulnerable populations, and reduce threats to life, national security, and public safety, while ensuring that vulnerable populations receive the protections they need,” she said in a statement at the time.

  Biden and top officials this year have reversed or altered a number of key Trump-era immigration policies. The United States has seen a leap in illegal border crossings, culminating in a new 21-year-high in July.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 22:25

• "Puzzle Pieces All Laid Out" – How ATF Has Plan To Classify Semi-Automatic Rifles As "Machine Guns" 
  “Puzzle Pieces All Laid Out” – How ATF Has Plan To Classify Semi-Automatic Rifles As “Machine Guns” 

  Op-Ed via The Machine Gun Nest (TMGN). 

  What is Going on With Gun Control Right Now in 2021?

  Just a general warning. The statements presented may start to sound like a conspiracy theory, but I promise you, dear reader, it is not.

  There’s been much talk at the range recently about the new proposed gun control by the Biden Administration. Many people are perplexed. We get a ton of questions, emails, and phone calls asking, “Will this affect me?”, “What can I do?”, “Why are they doing this?” among others.

  

  I want to answer these questions as best as I can. We’ve been in the firearms industry here at TMGN since 2013 and have had a shop & range since 2015, so we’ve seen tons of changes from different administrations. There is a clear agenda here, and I’m reasonably sure most gun owners are going to be a little unhappy with the information I’m about to deliver.

  So, I guess the main question to answer first would be, how did we get here? Right now, we’re looking at two (maybe more, who knows what the future holds) rule changes coming from the Biden DOJ and the ATF. These rule changes are an example of the Biden Admin governing by executive fiat, as they know they don’t have the votes in the Senate to pass any of their gun control agenda. But let’s unpack this. This situation is a culmination of events starting way back.

  Also, before we start, for the sake of those new to firearms (statistics show 9 million people bought their first gun in 2020 alone), many more in 2021. To those of you, we say welcome!) Let me do some quick-term definitions and give some critical context.

  NFA (National Firearms Act): The National Firearms Act of 1936. The NFA was the first major federal gun control act in American history. The NFA created a tax and registry for Suppressors (sometimes called silencers), Short Barrel Rifles & Shotguns (referred to as SBRs / SBSs respectively), and Machine Guns. If you wanted to own any of these items, you’d have to submit to a lengthy background check and pay a $200 tax. (Equivalent to $4400 in 1934) In return, you’d receive what’s known as a “tax stamp” showing that you were approved to own any of these “NFA items”.

  FFL: Federal Firearms License, shortened to FFL is used interchangeably to refer to a Firearms licensee aka a Dealer, or the physical License that is given by the federal government for the ability to manufacture firearms and/or to sell them. FFLs are overseen by the ATF.

  ATF Form 4473: The main form that people are required to fill out when purchasing a firearm. FFLs are required to hold this form on site for 20 years. The forms are used in the event a firearm is used in a crime, the ATF can “run a trace” on that firearm and figure out who it was last transferred to.

  NICS: The National Instant Criminal Background Check System. The NICS conducts background checks on people who want to own a firearm or explosive, as required by law. When a person tries to buy a firearm, the seller, known as a Federal Firearms Licensee (FFL), contacts NICS electronically or by phone. The prospective buyer fills out the ATF form 4473, and the FFL relays that information to the NICS. The NICS staff performs a background check on the buyer. That background check verifies the buyer does not have a criminal record or isn’t otherwise ineligible to purchase or own a firearm.

  1968 Gun Control Act: The creation of the system that we all know today. The GCA created the FFL system, banned mail-order guns, and more. This law has been updated a few times, most notably in 1993 with the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act, which created the NICS system we use today. The GCA replaced and updated the Federal Firearms Act, an older provision enacted in 1938.

  2008 Heller Decision: In DC V Heller, the supreme court ruled that the 2nd Amendment protects an individual’s right to possess a firearm, unconnected with service in a militia, and use that firearm for traditionally lawful purposes. Before this, gun control advocates argued that the 2nd Amendment had more to do with state militias than individual firearm ownership. With this decision, the Supreme court said that view was incorrect.

  Stabilizing Brace: Sometimes called a pistol brace. A Device designed to help shooters with limited mobility stabilize their firearm more easily. Attached to the rear of a gun, usually equipped with straps or some way to allow the shooter to use their forearm to help stabilize the firearm while shooting.

  Bump Stock: Bump fire stocks are gun stocks that are specially designed to make bump firing easier, which assist semi-automatic firearms with somewhat mimicking the firing motion of fully automatic weapons but does not make the firearm automatic. Essentially, bump stocks assist rapid fire by “bumping” the trigger against one’s finger (as opposed to one’s finger pulling on the trigger) thus allowing the firearm’s recoil, plus constant forward pressure by the non-shooting arm, to actuate the trigger.

  Ghost Gun: Made up term to make “homemade firearm.” It’s made to sound scary to those with little firearms knowledge. It has been common practice for people to build their guns. It’s also perfectly legal to do and has been for years, contrary to what corporate media outlets would like you to believe. If you make a firearm in your house for personal use, it’s legal and does not have to be serialized or registered. Although it still must conform to Federal firearms law and not violate the NFA.

  So, where do we start?

  The United States has a long history of gun control. But let’s not be complete pessimists here. On the bright side, the ability to carry a pistol concealed for self-defense has been significantly expanded in recent years and has been trending towards fewer restrictions nationwide since 1976 when Georgia established the “Shall issue” process we have today. (Shall issue is when you are guaranteed a permit should you complete the state’s process for acquiring said permit. whether that means taking a class or paying a fee. Inversely, States like Maryland and California use a process called “May Issue” where even if you complete the requirements for obtaining a permit, the state must still deem your “reason” for having said permit to be permissible. This has been declared unconstitutional in D.C. but that’s a story for a different time.)

  What is ironic here is that if you were to look at crime statistics, most crimes committed with a firearm, said firearm is a handgun. Why? It’s simple. Criminals prefer smaller, more concealable firearms. It’s hard to conceal an AR15, regardless of barrel length. Ironically when anti pistol legislation is proposed, it’s much harder for the government to pass. So, the anti-gun lobby has (for now) given up on the issue. Instead, they’ve targeted the scary-looking modern sporting rifles of today. Most notably, the AR15. However, their aim does extend to most semi-automatic rifles that accept a detachable box magazine.

  

  Now that we’ve established what they’re after, let’s talk about the events leading up to today.

  On the evening of October 1st, 2017, Stephen Paddock opened fire upon the crowd attending the Route 91 Harvest music festival from the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay hotel. He killed 60 people and wounded 411. It was the deadliest mass shooting in the history of the United States. Paddock was able to achieve high rates of fire with a device known as a bump stock.

  President Donald Trump ordered his Justice Department to find a way to ban the bump stock. The DOJ decided to classify the bump stock device as a machine gun in December of 2018, going into effect in March 2019. Since the only legal way to own a machine gun is to have a registered one on the NFA before 1986, bump stocks were effectively made illegal, and anyone in possession of one would be subject to 10 years imprisonment and a $250,000 fine.

  The problem here is that a bump stock isn’t a machine gun. It’s not even a firearm at all. It’s a piece of molded plastic that uses the gun’s recoil, discharging a round to “bump” the trigger. It does not guarantee automatic fire, nor does it modify a semi-automatic rifle and “convert” it to full auto. The firearm itself would remain semi-automatic, and the bump stock would allow the user to fire faster, using the force of the recoil.

  Most gun owners weren’t up in arms over the bump stock ban. Public opinion of the ban was positive. More comments supported the proposed rule change on the federal register than opposed it—a rare thing for gun control. Many gun owners viewed bump stocks as a novelty and wrote it off entirely. The issue, though, was much more complex. It had little to do with the bump stock itself and much more to do with reclassifying an item that was not a firearm itself under the NFA and effectively banning it with no recourse for gun owners.

  Fast forward to 2020. In May, the ATF announced it was changing its 4473 form. The form change would go into effect in November of 2020. Most gun owners are familiar with this form, even if they don’t know it by name. It’s the form that is filled out anytime that you purchase a firearm from a firearms dealer. It holds all the information of the individual looking to buy a gun before the FFL performs a background check through the federal NICS system.

  “Why is a simple form change relevant?” you might ask. Well, the ATF did update the form itself. But the ATF also changed the layout of the form dramatically. Before the change, the ATF had all the personal information for the individual filling out the form on the first page. The firearm information was located on a separate page. The change moved the buyer’s information and the firearm information (serial number, make, model, and more) to the first page. Here’s where we get into speculation a bit, but I promise, there’s a reason for it.

  I believe that the ATF is setting up for eventually keeping a digital database of 4473s. They are currently forbidden to do this by law. The only way that they’re legally allowed to keep physical 4473 forms is at one of their facilities in Martinsburg, WV. That facility is so full of paperwork that recently, the floor just caved in.

  What’s also important to know is that 4473 forms can (and should) be destroyed by dealers after 20 years. That means that the ATF will never keep those forms on file. Good FFLs do this. The only way for the ATF to acquire 4473 documents is if an FFL goes out of business, closes, or loses their license, they will need to turn over the forms that have not yet hit the 20 year mark. The ATF doesn’t like this. So eventually, I’m sure we’ll see a push for the ATF to digitize their data collection (hence the change to the 4473 form, as digitizing forms becomes much easier with all critical data on the first page).

  A quick side note here is that the government should never know what firearms you own. It’s your constitutional right to own firearms. The same way it’s your constitutional right to speak your mind. You wouldn’t want the FBI to keep a database of your text messages, would you? Same concept. We also know from history that keeping a database of firearms owner information eventually leads to a registry. Gun registries ALWAYS precede confiscation. If you look at history, this is always the case. It’s better to not allow for a registry so that confiscation cannot occur because doing even light research on what happens to disarmed populations is a scary thing.

  So let’s continue with what’s going on currently.

  In Nov. of 2020, Joe Biden won the Presidential election. During his campaign, he had been known for extra inflammatory statements on gun control. Saying, “Yes, I’m coming for your assault weapon” and associating himself with Robert-Francis “Beto” O’Rourke, promising to nominate him as Gun Czar. Robert-Francis had famously said during a debate, “Hell yes, we’re coming for your AR15.” When speaking to union workers at a campaign stop, he told a worker who asked him about his gun control plans: “we’ll take your AR14s away”.

  On December 18th, 2020, the ATF announced that it was planning to treat pistol braces as stocks and felt that they were being used to skirt the NFA and create unregistered Short Barrel Rifles. Gun owners came out in droves to comment on the Federal Register. A mere five days later, the ATF withdrew the pending rule change.

  In 2021 things were quiet for the start of the year, President Biden primarily focusing on infrastructure, coronavirus, and taxes. That is until April 7th, 2021, when he held a press conference, announcing six actions that Biden is taking on gun control.

  1. The Justice Dept. will make a rule to “help stop the proliferation of ghost guns.”
  2. The DOJ will, after that, issue a rule about stabilizing braces.
  3. The DOJ will publish model “Red Flag” legislation for states.
  4. Biden will nominate David Chipman to serve as the Director of the ATF.
  5. The DOJ will issue an annual report on firearms trafficking.
  6. The Biden admin is investing in “evidence-based” community violence interventions.

  At that moment, there was little information about any of the incoming rules. The only clear thing was that Biden’s nominee for the ATF would be David Chipman. David Chipman is a current gun-control activist and ex-ATF agent for those of you who don’t know. For all the Biden campaign sloganeering on “Healing a Divided Nation,” David Chipman has turned out to be one of the most divisive nominees yet, and one who has a clear ideological bias.

  We know that David Chipman has a bias because during his confirmation hearings in May of 2021, He stated that he “supports a ban on AR15 style rifles.” He also has written numerous articles and made many public statements on his opposition to Americans owning firearms.

  One of the most important things to know about David Chipman is that in 2017 he wrote an article for Giffords called “Legal and Lethal – 9 Products That Could Be the Next Bump Stock“. In the article, he speaks about how Congress must take action and ban things like High-Capacity Shotguns, AK & AR Style pistols, AR Pistol Arm Braces, 50 Caliber Rifles, Muzzleloaders, and more.

  Shortly after David Chipman’s hearing, the DOJ announced its rule on “Ghost Guns.” Of course, It covers more than just people making firearms in their homes. The ATF decided firearm parts now need to be classified as firearms. Therefore, those parts need to have their background check done at the time of purchase. Their reason is that the gun control act of 1968 hasn’t been updated. At the time of writing, the GCA didn’t account for all the different parts that citizens could purchase separately. It’s estimated that if you took the average AR15 and applied this rule, the AR15 would have 12 or more regulated parts that would require a background check. Meaning that if you buy an AR15, under this new rule, you’d be buying 12 different legal firearms built into one legal firearm. Make sense? I don’t think so.

  If you know anything about the history of the 1968 GCA, you know this is a total fabrication. A law prior called the Federal Firearms Act, which DID regulate parts, was replaced by the 1968 GCA. Congress found regulating firearm parts to be an “unworkable solution” and decided to regulate firearms by “frame or receiver,” not multiple parts.

  The ATF is also looking to classify items that they feel are “readily assembled” into firearms themselves. The definition of this is extremely unclear. My guess is that they are targeting 80% kits. 80% Kits are uncompleted firearm receivers in an 80% done state, meaning that legally they aren’t considered firearms. The purchaser can complete these firearms themselves at home with some significant work, depending upon the kit and type of receiver. These kits are typically popular with hobbyists, not so much with criminals.

  Lastly, this little lost detail that may be the most important of all: 4473 forms must be held INDEFINITELY by FFL holders, which means that FFLs can no longer destroy 4473 forms after 20 years.

  Now here we are at the latest announcement, the ATF’s proposed rule on stabilizing braces.

  On June 7th, 2021, the ATF announced its proposed rule change for “factoring criteria for firearms with attached stabilizing braces.” What they’ve done is create an overly complicated worksheet to ban all firearms with braces attached to them.

  The proposed rule change goes like this: If your handgun has a brace on it, the ATF has a worksheet that determines if that brace, in its configuration on your pistol, creates a “short barrel rifle.” (Defined as a firearm with a stock and a barrel length of under 16 inches.) Essentially, the ATF thinks that people are using braces to skirt the NFA and create short barrel rifles without paying the tax and registering their guns on the NFA registry. So, they’ve made the most complicated worksheet imaginable, named Worksheet 4999, to figure this out. The worksheet takes things into account like weight, length of pull, optic or scope on your pistol, and use two hands to fire the gun (which all people do even when shooting non-braced firearms) many more criteria if you score too high, oops! You have an illegal firearm.

  Probably the most egregious thing about Worksheet 4999 and the proposed rule change is that at the top of the sheet, there’s a disclaimer that essentially allows the ATF agent to deem your firearm as an illegal SBR regardless of if you pass the worksheet criteria and they feel that you are trying to circumvent the NFA. So even if you pass the worksheet, your agent may decide they feel like you’ve violated the law, and unfortunately, this rule change gives them the power to do so.

  So, where does this all come together?

  It’s obvious when you look at what’s happened and what’s been proposed where the Biden admin is headed for gun control. They are testing the waters right now with these two proposed rule changes, but I guarantee this is not the end. These current ideas have been taken right from the David Chipman “Legal and Lethal” playbook. There’s a part where Chipman writes this about semi-automatic rifles:

  “The danger posed by firearms that enable shooters to continue firing in this manner is the same reason Congress chose to include machine guns in the NFA when it was originally enacted: these weapons enable a shooter to fire many bullets very quickly. Semi-automatic firearms equipped with large-capacity magazines do not, however, fall under the NFA. The NFA refers to machine guns as those firearms that discharge more than one shot without manual reloading, by a single function of the trigger. Firearms developed since the NFA and equipped with large capacity magazines rarely require manual reloading, but they can expel a lot of ammunition in a brief period. They do so by allowing a trigger to be pulled many times very easy and ensuring that there is almost always another bullet ready to go. Despite this, large-capacity magazines and semi-automatic firearms equipped with them (sometimes called “assault weapons”) are not regulated under the NFA, even though they pose an incredible danger to our communities.”

  Take note here of Chipman’s idea that any semi-automatic rifle that can accept a “high-capacity magazine,” which I would assume is a magazine above ten rounds, is essentially a machine gun because they don’t need to be reloaded as often.

  We should look to this article as essentially the playbook that the ATF will take in the future. They are words right from the potential Director’s own thoughts.

  What potentially makes this situation more sinister is that they have the legal precedence to do so because of the bump stock ban. On top of that, the ATF’s next move of indefinite holds on 4473s, and the eventual argument for moving to a digital system means that you can bet that there will at some point be a push for a registry of who owns what.

  As I said, it sounds like a conspiracy. The puzzle pieces are all laid out in front of you. It’s our duty as gun owners to fight back and secure our rights. We all need to leave comments on both proposed rule changes. Even if you’re a defeatist that doesn’t think that the comments will dissuade the ATF from stomping on your rights, keep in mind that groups will use your comments like Firearms Policy Coalition and Gun Owners of America to sue the ATF immediately should these changes take place.

  This article has been a longer piece than usual, but I hope it’s helped you understand where we are today with gun rights. In the time it took you to read this article, you could have commented on both proposed rule changes, so please make your way to regulations.gov and make your voice heard!

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 22:05

• Here's How Afghanistan's Economy Changed During 20 Years Of War
  Here’s How Afghanistan’s Economy Changed During 20 Years Of War

  Amateur and professional bean counters are starting to take stock of what, exactly has changed during 20 years of war between the US and the Taliban. And while as China and Russia prepare to strengthen economic ties with the Taliban, the FT has published a mildly comprehensive rundown of how Afghanistan’s economic situation has changed since the US invasion began in 2001.

  

  Speaking to the FT for a story about Afghanistan’s economic development, Gareth Price, senior research fellow at think-tank Chatham House, said that while Afghanistan had “changed dramatically” in social terms, “none of the main domestic generators of growth — notably mineral reserves — have been significantly tapped, aside from illegal mining”.

  In other words, the Taliban has plenty of natural resources to plunder, and an eager buyer with China already making entrees to the Taliban (despite their obvious ideological conflict, just another example of China’s unyielding commitment to “true” socialism).

  Living standards saw solid improvement during the early years of the US occupation, but the pace of improvement leveled off around 2010, when corruption in graft within the new Afghan government started getting really out of control.

  

  One of the biggest contributing factors:  Aid flows fell from about 100% of GDP in 2009 to 42.9% in 2020 according to the World Bank, sending living standards lower as the services sector’s growth was constrained.

  

  While services growth has remained somewhat stagnant, the country’s economy has continued to depend largely on agriculture. As of 2021, roughly half of its official exports are composed of grapes and other fresh fruit, although it’s importance has declined somewhat.

  

  However, as one analyst pointed out, most of these figures should be taken with a grain of salt, since the illegal opium trade comprises a major portion of Afghanistan’s economy, along with other black-market trades from energy, to methamphetamine and other drugs.

  While the Taliban are only just assuming control of much of Afghanistan’s legitimate economy, an editorial published last week in the NYT by a pair of Afghanistan experts alleged that the group has long controlled much of the country’s illegitimate, smuggling-based economy.

  With this in mind, the Taliban’s advance has forced neighbors to confront a dilemma: They could either continue to trade, giving the Taliban more power and legitimacy, or deny themselves trade revenues and accept the financial pain. As pressure from China, Pakistan and Russia mounts, more countries will have little choice but to accept the status quo, with the Taliban returned to power in Kabul.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 21:45

• We Are Witnessing Incompetence On A Colossal Scale Throughout Our Society
  We Are Witnessing Incompetence On A Colossal Scale Throughout Our Society

  Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

  These days, it is a surprise when someone actually does something competently.  It is often said that if you want something done right you have got to do it yourself, and today that is more true than ever.  Just think about it.  How often have you had a delivery delayed or messed up?  How often have you had someone supposedly “fix” something but it isn’t actually fixed?  How often have you purchased something that breaks shortly thereafter?  And don’t even get me started on the complete and utter incompetence that we see in the tech industry.  How hard could it possibly be to release a piece of software that is not riddled with all sorts of nightmarish bugs that need to be “patched” as soon as possible?

  

  Sadly, in our upside down society some of the most incompetent people that you can imagine end up running entire organizations, and if you are particularly corrupt and useless you may get to be a politician.

  By now, you are probably thinking that I am going to talk about Joe Biden in this article, and you are right.

  In this era of extreme incompetence, it somehow seems appropriate that sleepy Joe is presiding over our “idiocracy”.

  Barack Obama knew that this could happen.  According to Politico, he once said that nobody should “underestimate Joe’s ability to **** things up”.

  Everything that Biden touches seems to turn into a failure.  Just look at the crisis on the border.  It is the worst that it has ever been in our entire history, and we are being told that “morale is in the toilet” among our Border Patrol agents…

  “Morale is in the toilet,” Jon Anfinsen, a spokesman for the Border Patrol’s union, told the Washington Examiner. “Morale is low because agents aren’t allowed to do their job — if our job is to be out patrolling the border in between the ports of entry and actively searching for people who have crossed illegally, but we’re not allowed to go do that job, it basically creates this defeated feeling in everyone.”

  Thanks to Biden’s wonderful new policies, our Border Patrol agents have their hands tied and are not able to do their jobs, and as a result many of them show up to work “sort of downtrodden, almost dead inside”…

  “Everyone shows up to work sort of downtrodden, almost dead inside, for lack of a better term,” Anfinsen stated. “They’re not allowed to [do] the job, and they know that people are getting away every single day, every hour.”

  Of course it isn’t just on the border where Biden is completely and utterly failing.

  He is doing such a “great job” with the economy that the term “Bidenflation” has been coined less than a year into his presidency.

  And his response to the COVID pandemic has been a nightmare of historic proportions.  If I were to tell you how I really feel about the decisions that he has been making during this pandemic, I would get censored into oblivion by the social media companies.

  Right now, what everyone is talking about is how incompetent the Biden administration has been in handling the situation in Afghanistan.

  The fall of Saigon in 1975 and the Iranian hostage crisis during the Carter administration both made America look really weak, but we have never seen anything like the debacle at the airport in Kabul.

  The “terrorists” that we went it to destroy in 2001 now have us surrounded and cornered in half an airport, and there are still countless numbers of people that can’t get to the evacuation planes.

  In fact, staff members that worked at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul feel like they have been completely betrayed by our government at this point…

  Local staff members at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul are “deeply disheartened” by U.S. evacuation efforts and have expressed a sense of betrayal and distrust in the U.S. government, according to a State Department diplomatic cable obtained by NBC News.

  The cable, which was sent Saturday, said memos were sent Wednesday inviting Afghan staff members at the embassy to head to Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul. It told them to take food and to prepare for difficult conditions.

  When staffers went to the airport in response to that cable, they quickly found themselves in the middle of a nightmare…

  Staffers reported being jostled, hit, spat on and cursed at by Taliban fighters at checkpoints near the airport, it said, adding that criminals were taking advantage of the chaos while the U.S. military tried to maintain order “in an extremely physical situation.”

  Some staff members reported that they were almost separated from their children, while others collapsed in a crush of people and had to be taken to hospitals with injuries, the cable said. Others said they had collapsed on the road because of heat exhaustion, it said.

  British forces have been leaving the airport and bringing back people that need to be evacuated, but for some reason the U.S. hasn’t done the same thing.

  There are still thousands of Americans inside the country, and time is running out, because the Taliban won’t move the August 31 deadline…

  The White House repeatedly refused to address the Taliban’s August 31 deadline to get US troops out of Afghanistan on Monday, dodging questions on the subject and snapping at reporters who asked how the government planned to save the remaining Americans stuck in Kabul.

  The Taliban’s spokesman issued the sternest threat yet to Biden on Monday morning, saying there will be ‘consequences’ if US troops – who are holed up at the airport in Kabul evacuating tens of thousands of people and fending off an increasingly desperate crowd – don’t leave in the next eight days.

  Biden should immediately resign, but he will never do that.

  Of course there are others that also should share in the blame.

  Just like much of the rest of our society, the brass at the Pentagon has been getting increasingly incompetent over the years, but up until recently it hasn’t been talked about too much.

  But now that our failures in Afghanistan have been exposed for the whole world to see, the mainstream media is having a field day mocking them.  For example, the following comes from the New York Post…

  To the surprise of only the Biden administration and its top brass, the Taliban retook control of Afghanistan last week after 20 years of frivolous American adventurism. It was a spectacular failure of American diplomacy, statecraft, intelligence and, most of all, military capability. In short, mission very much not accomplished.

  But that’s pretty much standard operating procedure for the nearly useless behemoth called the Pentagon, which hasn’t won a war since the kinder, gentler American government changed its name from the War Department to the Defense Department shortly after World War II.

  So why don’t any of our top military officials ever get fired?

  As Darren Beattie has pointed out, NFL head coaches are held to a much higher standard than our generals and admirals are…

  Is the head coach always the problem with a bad NFL team? Obviously not. But a head coach is the highly-compensated captain of a $200 million operation, and his job is to win. Coaches who don’t win get fired, because being a perpetual, complacent loser is unacceptable.

  The ongoing collapse of the U.S.-backed regime in Afghanistan is the geopolitical equivalent of an NFL team going 0-16 twenty seasons in a row. Perhaps it’s worse than that, in fact. The Afghanistan disaster is the equivalent of an NFL All-Pro team taking on a Division III liberal arts college, being shut out, and then crashing the team bus into a ditch.

  If we were to start holding military officials accountable for their performance, firing Mark Milley would be a really good start.

  I have absolutely no idea how someone like that got to be the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.  Personally, I would not even trust him to mop the floors of the local Dairy Queen.

  What is even more tragic is that millions upon millions of Americans unquestionably accept whatever our incompetent leaders tell them to believe without taking the time and effort to think for themselves and come to their own conclusions.

  The blind are truly leading the blind, and we are steamrolling down a highway that doesn’t lead anywhere good.

  Every great society throughout history has crumbled eventually, and now our society is crumbling too.

  I suppose that it was probably inevitable, but do we really have to look so completely and utterly incompetent in the process?

  *  *  *

  It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 21:25

• Forget The Fed And Jackson Hole: Treasury Is About To Unleash $500 Billion Quantitative Tightening
  Forget The Fed And Jackson Hole: Treasury Is About To Unleash $500 Billion Quantitative Tightening

  Three weeks ago, moments after the Treasury released its latest Treasury issuance Sources and Uses report which virtually nobody on Wall Street pays attention to, we confirmed  something we first observed months earlier: stealth QE – which as we explained early this year is how the Treasury injected $1.5 trillion of liquidity into the market in the past 12 months bypassing the Fed entirely – was not only over but was about to go into reverse as the US Treasury was set to unleash several hundred billion of quantitative tightening.

  The reason: after dropping to a post-covid low of $450 billion, the Treasury’s cash balance would first drop to $300 billion, and then continue declining for the duration of the debt ceiling negotiations (which will conclude successfully at some point in the next 2 months despite days of theatrical posturing as the US will not default) before surging to $800 billion by year end.

  

  To be sure, the specifics of the upcoming Quantitative Tightening are still in flux and depend on when the US debt ceiling (which as a reminder was hit on July 31) and will be raised or extended: for all intents and purposes this is expected to take place some time “in October or November” which is when the debt limit deadline hits according to the CBO (that’s when the various emergency measures to extend the debt ceiling expire).

  But while some last minute fireworks are assured, absent a compete collapse in the political process we expect another can-kicking extension in the debt ceiling some time in October or early November. To be sure, that means that the Treasury’s benign Sept 30 forecast of $750BN will not be met and instead Treasury cash levels will continue to shrink from current levels until there is some resolution.

  Which brings us to another question: what are current cash levels at the Treasury? Well, after rising as high as $1.8 trillion last July, the cash held at the Treasury General Account has plunged to just $309 billion, the lowest level since the covid pandemic. This is largely due to the borrowing cap which has prompted the government to cut bill issuance and draw down its cash pile, while also putting tremendous downward pressure on short-term rates, pushing repo rates into negative territory, and breaching the Fed’s reverse repo 0.05% “floor” level as both Bills and overnight GC repo now trade below this level as discussed yesterday.

  

  This means also that in the past 14 months, the Treasury – completely independent of the Fed – has injected a massive $1.5 trillion in liquidity into the market while soaking up massive amount of collateral, and is one of the reasons why today’s reverse repo print will be a record $1.2 trillion (on its way to $2 trillion or more by year end).

  

  But now comes the reversal, and with Treasury cash dropping to its pre-covid levels the next move is higher, and sharply so once the debt ceiling is resolved.

  Why do we bring this up? Because while most ignore this analyses when we posted it first in May and then again in early August, the financial experts are starting to wake up to the fact that the Treasury’s Quantitative Tightening is going to be a far greater factor for market liquidity in the near term than what happens at Jackson Hole.

  First, an aside on Friday’s main event: as we have discussed ad nauseam, at 10am on Friday Powell may unveil that the Fed will begin tapering in September… or he may not. As Goldman noted yesterday, “there is a 45% chance that the formal announcement will come in November, a 35% chance that it will come in December, and 20%chance that it will be delayed until 2022.” The bank also said it expects the Fed to “taper at a pace of $15bn per meeting, split between $10bn in UST and $5bn in MBS.”

  Bottom line: whether Powell reveals the taper or he doesn’t, the reality is that QE will still be with  us for a long, long time even if the Fed starts shrinking its purchases in Q1 of next year, as the next Goldman chart shows. 

  

  But while the Fed’s tapering just means QE will still persist until mid- to late-2022, it is the Treasury’s QT that will be a far greater swing factor for market liquidity, especially once the debt ceiling is resolved and the Treasury starts draining liquidity at a furious pace by issuing debt – primarily in the form of Bills.

  Why do we bring all of this up?

  Because after ignoring the Treasury’s upcoming stealth QT, for months, Wall Street has finally woken up to the real threat to risk assets and as Bloomberg writes this morning, “Man Group last week wrote that because this implies the Treasury will be issuing more than spending, it’s effectively a form of quantitative tightening” just as we said in early August.

  This, according to Man Group “could prompt investors to start cutting their rates positions eventually, though there’s usually a six-week lag between changes in the Treasury cash pile and the impact on longer-dated bond yields.” And since stocks, especially high duration tech names trade as a treasury proxy, once the selling in rates begins, it will quickly spillover to the FAAMGs which just happen to be the handful of generals propping up the entire market.

  Below we republish the Man note, which while covering a topic we have discussed extensively, is something to keep an eye on as we believe many more traders will soon realize that Jackson Hole – and the taper in general – is just a distraction from the far greater QT coming up at the hands of the US Treasury which is about to unleash a massive Quantitative Tightening in the coming months, draining a whopping $500 billion in liquidity by year-end – assuming there is no further drain in Treasury cash which however is unlikely – and potentially as much as $800 billion should the Treasury cash drop to approximately $0 by November as the debt ceiling negotiations extend until the last possible moment, at which point the Treasury scrambles to refill its cash balance with a flood of Bill issuance

  

  From Man Group

  Do Treasury Cash Levels Imply Quantitative Tightening?

  At the time of writing, it’s all but certain that Congress is unlikely to raise the US debt ceiling before the Senate leaves for summer recess. The debt ceiling is the maximum amount the US government can borrow to meet its financial obligations. When the ceiling is reached, the Treasury cannot issue any more bills, bonds, or notes. It can only pay bills through tax revenues, or by dipping into its savings (i.e., the cash balance) at the Treasury.

  At the end of July, the Treasury’s cash balance was only USD442 billion, a relatively low level. For context, between the end of June and end of July, the cash balance fell by USD398 billion [ZH: it has since dropped to $309 billion]

  In a ‘normal’ world (where the debt ceiling isn’t an issue), the US Treasury would not have tapped into its cash balance. Instead, it would have issued enough debt to match its spending needs. Net net, this would have no impact on markets – the amount the Treasury spends (which is like a cash injection into the US economy) would be offset by the amount of debt issuance (this would take liquidity out of the system as investors would be using their cash to buy US Treasury instruments).

  However, in the last few months, the US Treasury has slowed down issuance because of the debt ceiling. This, in turn, has forced the Treasury to tap into their ‘rainy day’ fund and deplete its cash balance. Because it hasn’t done much issuance to take out liquidity, net net, these actions by the US Treasury have acted like substantial quantitative easing (i.e., cash injection without the offsetting liquidity withdrawal from issuance).

  Separately, the Treasury has indicated that once the debt ceiling is increased, it plans to run the cash balance at USD750 billion. This would imply that the Treasury is taking more out of the system via issuance than it is putting back into the system via spending, because it is replenishing its rainy-day fund. This acts like quantitative tightening.

  In addition, there is a roughly 6-week lag between changes in the Treasury cash account and the impact on longer-dated Treasury yields (Figure 1). As such, it is possible that Treasury yields may fall further or remain at the current low levels for another six weeks or so.

  

  If private sector market participants still have any ability to anticipate future developments, then we are likely near the point where investors begin to reduce their rates positions to make room for the increased issuance that would take place the moment the debt ceiling rollover happens. In due time, this should have an impact on asset prices that depend on long-term yields.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 21:15

• El Salvador Installs 200 Bitcoin ATMs As Crypto Set To Become Legal Tender
  El Salvador Installs 200 Bitcoin ATMs As Crypto Set To Become Legal Tender

  Back in June, we reported that El Salvador, the tiny Central American nation known as the home country of many of the migrants who wind up asking for amnesty at the southern border of the US, would become the first country in the world to recognize bitcoin as an official legal tender.

  That was weeks ago. Now, the El Salvadoran government is preparing for its new era of relying on bitcoin as its primary means of transacting by installing 200 bitcoin ATMs – which are already popular in the US and in Europe.

  

  President Nayib Bukele shared his plans for the bitcoin rollout via social media on Sunday.

  Bukele, who is the principal figure behind the country’s push to adopt bitcoin, said El Salvadorans will soon be able to convert their bitcoin to US dollars immediately once bitcoin is recognized as legal tender. To help facilitate this, there will be 200 bitcoin ATMs and also 50 bank branches capable of allowing them to swap their crypto for fiat, and vice-versa.

  The “Chivo ATMs” (named after the government’s official bitcoin wallet, also called “chivo”, which is a slang term for “cool”) will eventually be “everywhere” Bukele said, allowing El Salvadorans to withdraw cash or make deposits 24 hours a day without paying commissions or paying any fees. The app will also allow Salvadorans abroad to send money – both dollars and bitcoin instantly to their relatives in El Salvador, saving them the hefty commissions that companies like Western Union demand. Fee-free remittances are expected to save the country some $400MM per year.

  Transactions will be commission free, he said, adding that there will also be 50 financial branches across the country for withdrawing or depositing money.

  Those who refuse to use bitcoin will still have the option of using the US dollar, which will become the country’s other official currency.

  “What if someone doesn’t want to use Bitcoin?” said Bukele. “Don’t download the [Chivo] app and continue living your normal life. Nobody is going to take your dollars…Someone can always queue up at Western Union and pay a commission.”

  Bukele first announced his plans to make bitcoin legal tender at the Bitcoin 2021 conference in Miami. The bill swiftly passed through the country’s legislative assembly, and is now slated to take effect on Sept. 7.

  On that day, Salvadorans will be able to download the government-backed Chivo digital wallet, and enter their ID number and receive $30 in bitcoin, according to comments from Finance Minister Alejandro Zelaya, who delivered an interview on a local TV station Monday. The government has also created a $150MM fund to back Bitcoin-to-dollar conversions, he said.

  To help further strengthen El Salvador’s crypto economy, Bukele has also asked a state-owned geothermal power company to make its facilities available to bitcoin miners.

  With crypto prices back on the rise, might the start of El Salvador’s big experiment have an impact on crypto markets? Or will Salvadorans overwhelmingly prefer transacting in US dollars instead of the digital currency?

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 21:05

• 6 California Companies Convicted For Scheme Avoiding $1.8 Billion In Customs Duties On China Imports
  6 California Companies Convicted For Scheme Avoiding $1.8 Billion In Customs Duties On China Imports

  Authored by Ivan Pentchoukov via The Epoch Times,

  A federal jury in Los Angeles on Aug. 23 convicted six southern California companies for taking part in a large-scale conspiracy to avoid paying $1.8 billion in customs duties by disguising aluminum imports as pallets.

  

  China Zhongwang Holdings Chairman Liu Zhongtian poses for pictures just after traiding had started at the stock exchange in Hong Kong on May 8, 2009. (Mike Clarke/AFP via Getty Images)

  The conspirators then sold the pallets to entities disguised to look like real customers with the intent of fraudulently inflating the value of China Zhongwang, the largest manufacturer of aluminum extrusions in Asia.

  The six California companies, two aluminum firms, and four warehousing businesses were all related to each other. The jury found all six guilty of “one count of conspiracy, nine counts of wire fraud, and seven counts of passing false and fraudulent papers through a customhouse,” according to a press release from the Department of Justice.

  “The aluminum sold to United States-based companies controlled by [Zhongtian] Liu was simply aluminum extrusions that were spot-welded together to make them appear to be functional pallets,” the DOJ said.

  “In fact, there were no customers for the 2.2 million pallets imported by the Liu-controlled companies between 2011 and 2014, and no pallets were ever sold.”

  Instead, two of the defendants in the case, China Zhongwang Holdings Ltd. and Liu, the company’s former president, stockpiled the pallets on nearly two million square feet of space owned by the defendant’s warehouse businesses: Scuderia Development LLC in Riverside; 1001 Doubleday LLC in Ontario; Von Karman—Main Street LLC in Irvine, and 10681 Production Avenue LLC in Fontana.

  Since there was no demand for the pallets, Liu and China Zhongwang began to build and acquire facilities that could melt down the aluminum and turn it into a marketable commodity.

  “The defendants facilitated their schemes by laundering hundreds of millions of dollars through shell companies to the U.S.-based aluminum companies controlled by Liu,” the DOJ said in the press release.

  “The funds were then transferred to China Zhongwang and the other shell companies as payments for the aluminum.”

  

  (L-R) China’s Liaoning province Deputy Governor Liu Guoqiang (L), China Zhongwang Holdings Chairman Liu Zhongtian and Hong Kong Stock Exchange Chairman Ronald Arculli (R) toast just after trading had started at the stock exchange in Hong Kong on May 8, 2009. (Mike Clarke/AFP via Getty Images)

  China Zhongwang raised $1.26 billion in an initial public offering (IPO) in 2009 on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Liu was the majority owner of China Zhongwang at the time of the IPO.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 20:45

• Ford Is Again Hiking Its Production Targets For Its F-150 Lightning
  Ford Is Again Hiking Its Production Targets For Its F-150 Lightning

  While GM is dealing with nothing short of a total disaster with its Chevy Bolt and Tesla is focused on humanoid robots, Ford has been quietly garnering significant interest in its electric F-150 lightning.

  In fact, interest has risen so much that Ford has doubled its production target for the vehicle ahead of its launch, which is supposed to be in 2022, according to Reuters. Ford is doling out $850 million to help it meet its launch target. 

  The company is going to attempt annual production of more than 80,000 vehicles in 2024, the report says, double its previous target of more than 40,000. 

  One source told Reuters: “They were pleasantly surprised by the demand for the Lightning.” 

  While Ford’s commercial customers were expected to push toward the shift to EVs, the company was uncertain as to whether or not individual customers would abandon their gas powered pickups for electric powered ones.

  

  “We are excited with customer demand for the F-150 Lightning and already have 120,000 customer reservations, and we will continue to look for ways to break constraints and meet customer demand,” the company said in a statement. 

  Ford is planning on building about 15,000 of the model next year after its launch, and about 55,000 of the model in 2023, in a ramp up to its 2024 target. 

  Ford had already upped its production targets by 50% last November. This increase comes on top of that one. 

  Some, on Ford’s supply chain, are worried about whether or not the demand will truly meet Ford’s expectations. “It really puts suppliers in a dicey situation if the volume doesn’t come true,” one supplier told Reuters.

  But hey, there’s only one way to find out…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 20:25

• Who Benefits From Cancelling Achievement Standards?
  Who Benefits From Cancelling Achievement Standards?

  Authored by Philip Carl Salzman via The Epoch Times,

  In 2021 there’s an outright holy war against scholastic achievement.

  

  Oregon has passed a bill that suspends the requirement that students must be able to read, write, and do math to graduate from high school.

  Mathematics should be replaced, we are told, by “social justice” mathematics, in which there are no correct answers, and students must not be asked to show the calculations that led to their conclusions.

  Standard American English should no longer be the standard, and students should not be judged on the quality of their writing. And recruitment of future scientists and science teachers and researchers should no longer be based on achievement, merit, and potential, but on “diversity, equity, and inclusion.”

  Even before the year and a half of schoolwork lost to the pandemic, the performance of American school students fell far behind many countries that are America’s competitors and threatening enemies. According to a 2017 Pew report on Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development figures, the United States is 24th in science, 38th in mathematics, and 24th in reading, outstripped by many East Asian and Western European countries, and even Canada. You might have thought that these facts would be motivating political and educational authorities to improve the education of American children.

  But, no, American political and educational authorities are devoting themselves to undermining achievement in science, math, and reading. Advanced programs in science and math are being closed down. Specialized high schools in New York City may no longer admit applicants based on academic merit. Classic literature is outlawed. Standardized tests are rejected. And new “subjects,” such as critical race theory, are being imported into schools to replace science, math, and reading.

  What problem is this fundamental transformation of education intended to solve?

  It’s not directed at individuals, and not intended to ensure that individuals are treated with fairness, according to universalistic criteria of achievement, merit, and potential. Rather, this transformation is aimed at gender, racial, sexuality, ableness, and economic class collective categories. The justification of this attack on education is a claimed concern for “marginalized,” “racialized,” and “underserved” minority populations who are allegedly discriminated against and victimized.

  The alleged evidence for discrimination and victimization is statistical disparities among the massive census categories. For example, there’s the well-documented achievement gap among racial groups. In academic and professional achievement, the average among racial groups varies, with Asian Americans achieving an A, white Americans getting a B, Hispanics receiving a C, and African Americans getting a D.

  Ibram X Kendi, America’s new prophet of “antiracism,” says that there are racist and anti-racist explanations for these disparities. The racist explanation attributes responsibility for the results to the members of the category themselves, and thus would say that there’s an achievement problem among African Americans. The anti-racist explanation is that the disparate results arise from systemic racism and discrimination. The solution, therefore, according to Kendi, is discrimination, now and in the future, in favor of African Americans.

  Kendi may not have noticed that, since President John F. Kennedy’s 1961 Executive Order 10925 mandating “affirmative action,” discrimination in favor of African Americans has been official American policy for 60 years. This program has been reinforced by the new trinity, “diversity, equity, and inclusion,” which requires the same outcomes for all categories. In this program, results are detached from performance, and in principle, all must receive the same trophies, although in practice members of preferred categories received more trophies. In university admission, in university and business hiring, and in every field, African Americans have been sought and given preference and special benefits, at the direct expense of whites and Asian Americans. Yet the disparities have not disappeared.

  Alternative explanations to racism and discrimination would examine in all racial categories such things as family structure, community support and safety, and community culture. To suggest that the reasons for weak achievement among African Americans has something to do with the prevalence of around 75 percent single-parent families and the lack of strong male figures in African American communities, the lack of a strong educational orientation in community culture, and high level of crime, including street gangs, in African American communities, would be, according to Kendi, a racist explanation.

  Ideas of “colorblind” achievement, merit, and potential have been labelled “white supremacism” and jettisoned in favor of “social justice,” defined as unending preferences to preferred minorities and the exclusion of members of unpreferred categories, plus the ginning up of race hate. Now, as we see in Washington state, scholastic achievement has been cancelled. The idea is, apparently, if African Americans are not achieving at the same level as other racial groups, there’s something unnecessary and wrong about achievement.

  If African Americans cannot get the correct answer in math, there must no longer be right answers in math.

  Brooklyn College math education professor Laurie Rubel asserted last year that “along with the ‘of course math is neutral because 2+2=4’ trope are the related (and creepy) ‘math is pure’ and ‘protect math.’ Reeks of white supremacist patriarchy. I’d rather think on nurturing people & protecting the planet (with math in service of them goals).” We might find, if we’re planning to take reality into account, that “service of them goals” might require correct mathematics with correct answers. Let’s hope that engineers, of whatever race, planning buildings, bridges, and aircraft still believe that math has correct answers.

  If African Americans write poorly, then quality of writing must not be considered. As Walter E. Williams describes it:

  “Just when we thought colleges could not spout loonier ideas, we have a new one from American University. They hired a professor to teach other professors to grade students based on their ‘labor’ rather than their writing ability. The professor that American University hired to teach that nonsense is Asao B. Inoue, who is a professor at the University of Washington in Tacoma in interdisciplinary arts and sciences. He is also the director of the university’s writing center. Inoue believes that a person’s writing ability should not be assessed, in order to promote ‘anti-racist’ objectives. Inoue taught American University’s faculty members that their previous practices of grading writing promoted white language supremacy. Inoue thinks that students should be graded on the effort they put into a project.”

  Will this new plan suit businesses and professions?

  Educational elites, including university professors and administrators, state and local departments of education and teachers’ unions, and local, regional, and national politicians are in a constant competition for prestige, status, and power that leads to innovation of ideas and policies ever more extreme and detached from reality. Their continued and intensified assaults on scholastic and academic achievement, and Western culture generally, are laying waste to education and to American society.

  A good example is the adoption of the discredited Black Lives Matter Marxist and racist propaganda. The College Fix reports that

  “The University of San Diego is offering faculty $600 to take a five-week Black Lives Matter course.

  ‘Heeding the call of the #BlackLivesMatter movement and global network, this course joins the nationwide effort to deconstruct anti-Blackness, dismantle white supremacy, center Black resistance, and build solidarity movements that support the wellness and self-determination of Black communities,’ its description states.

  ‘… It is our intention to reorient canon to recognize Black contribution; to learn about Black networks across the world and throughout history; and to imagine futures that support Black excellence.’”

  USD law professor Gail Heriot responded: “Could a course description be any clearer that it is about inculcating and supporting a fringe ideology? The course description literally states that the course is part of a ‘nationwide effort to deconstruct anti-Blackness [and] dismantle white supremacy.’ The problem is that you couldn’t find a white supremacist in these parts if your life depended on it. These folks are barking mad.”

  What do Americans generally think about these policies? Opinion polling shows that a supermajority of Americans, including every racial minority group, oppose using racial and gender preferences in university admissions, and were opposed to the Supreme Court decision that conditionally allowed such preferences. Recent referendum initiatives in Washington state and in California, supported by educational and political elites, to institute racial preferences in university admissions were voted down by citizens in those states.

  The Oregon elimination of requirements for achievement in reading, writing, and math has received an F from Americans:

  “The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 81% of American Adults would oppose a law in their state that says high school students do not need to be proficient in reading, writing and mathematics to graduate. Only 12% favor such a law in their state.”

  Thinking about and organizing people in terms of their race, rather than as complex and highly variable individuals, is going down an extremely dangerous road. 

  This is the very definition of racism. We have tried to leave this behind, as a violation of human rights, but it has re-emerged as “critical race theory” and “anti-racism.” Where these have taken us is clear from the angry denunciations of “whiteness,” the revivification of widespread antisemitism, and the violent attacks on Asian Americans and Jews. As usual, the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

  Our education and political elites have allowed themselves to be carried away by extreme racist ideology. The damage that they’re doing in incalculable, and not least to those on whose behalf they claim to be acting. They should be replaced by people who have not lost their minds and who would represent the views of the citizens they’re supposed to represent.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 20:05

• Largest US Food Distributor Having Trouble Keeping Shelves Stocked; Price Shock Imminent
  Largest US Food Distributor Having Trouble Keeping Shelves Stocked; Price Shock Imminent

  One of the defining features of the early phases of the covid pandemic, when public fear was rampant and when few wanted to take chances that supply chains would remain viable, is that for a brief period US supermarkets resembled those of the USSR circa the late 1980s: many items were in short supply, and some – notably toilet paper, clorox, and perishables such as milk – were out of stock for weeks.

  

  Fast forward to today when fears about the Delta strain are being fanned by the liberal media, the US may be facing a similar shortage of key products… only this time for a very different reason: not a surge in demand, but rather a drop in supply.

  According to Bloomberg, some of the largest U.S. food distributors are “reporting difficulties in fulfilling orders as a lack of workers weighs on the supply chain.” Take distribution giant Sysco, North America’s largest wholesale food distributor, which is turning away customers in some areas where demand is exceeding capacity.

  Worse, food inflation is about to soar: the company said prices for key goods such as chicken, pork and paper products for takeout packaging are climbing amid tight supplies. In particular, production has slowed for high-demand, labor-intensive cuts like bacon, ribs, wings and tenders, Sysco said. And if intermediate and final wholesale prices are “rising”, just wait until they emerge on the consumer side.

  The culprit for the coming price shock? Biden’s catastrophic stimmies and universal basic income which has unleashed havoc on the US job market and led to historic labor shortages:

  “There are certain areas across the country that are more challenged by the labor shortage and our volume of orders is regularly exceeding our capacity,” Sysco Chief Executive Officer Kevin Hourican said in a letter to clients earlier this month. “This has, unfortunately, led to service disruptions for some of our customers.”

  Hourican’s troubling observations were confirmed by an analysis from DecaData, which tracks retailer transactions with shoppers and manufacturers; it showed that retailers are bumping up against manufacturer capacity as they stockpile ahead of the holiday season. In July, the incidence of suppliers limiting or putting a cap on orders from customers was more than double what it was in January, its data show.

  Another major distributor, United Natural Foods is having trouble getting food to stores on time. The company blamed not just labor shortages, but also delays in the procurement of some imported goods like cheese, coconut water and spices, as causing the problems.

  “We anticipate additional supplier challenges in the short term with gradual improvement through the fall and winter,” a United Natural Foods representative said. The company’s top priority is to support customers “by working diligently to recover and bring their shelves back to normal inventory levels as quickly as possible.”

  Translation: it’s about to get bad as the double whammy of insufficient workers and snarled supply chains leads to shortages of key perishables and, logically, must higher prices.

  U.S. companies across industries are reporting a dearth of workers amid sweetened unemployment benefits, stimulus payments and a pandemic that has reduced the appeal of in-person employment. Houston-based Sysco is aggressively hiring warehouse workers and truck drivers and offering referral and sign-on bonuses along with retention money for current staff.

  The entire food sector is seeing “massive labor shortages,” Benjamin Walker, senior vice president of sales, marketing and merchandising at Baldor Specialty Foods told Bloomberg. “Service levels are the lowest I’ve seen in my 16-year career, and it doesn’t seem like it’s going away anytime soon.” Finding truck drivers is “next to impossible,” he said, while freight costs are rising daily. The company’s orders are arriving late and consequently facing delays in being sent to customers. On the outbound side, on-time deliveries are still above 50% but have fallen from the usual rate of more than 90%.

  “We all thought it would be over by now. It’s just one thing after another,” he said.

  “This is going to be the norm for a while.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 19:45

• How Will The Taliban Finance Afghanistan?
  How Will The Taliban Finance Afghanistan?

  Via Safehaven.com,

  Once the excitement of taking over a country settles, such as checking out the presidential gym and enjoying some fun on bumper cars, Afghanistan’s new Taliban authorities will face the same issues any other government will: how to finance the country.

  

  Following the Taliban’s takeover of the country last weekend, many international financial institutions have blacklisted the new government, and the currency is in freefall. 

  On Thursday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) decided that Afghanistan would no longer be able to access its resources.

  The lender said that resources of over $370 million had been set to arrive later this month. The funds were approved last November and intended to support Afghanistan’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, anchor economic reforms, and spur donor financing.

  An IMF spokesperson said it was due to “lack of clarity within the international community” over recognizing a government in Afghanistan.

  The IMF’s decision follows a letter of more than a dozen GOP lawmakers to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressing alarm over IMF funds heading to the Taliban.

  “The potential of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation to provide nearly half a billion dollars in unconditional liquidity to a regime with a history of supporting terrorist actions against the United States and her allies is extremely concerning,” they wrote.

  Earlier this week, the Biden administration also announced that central bank assets the Afghan government has in the U.S. would not be made available to the Taliban, who remain on the Treasury Department’s sanctions designation list in the aftermath of the 9/11 attack.

  According to the media, the U.S. has frozen nearly $9.5 billion in assets belonging to the Afghan central bank and stopped shipments of cash there.

  Reuters cited an Afghanistan official saying that the country’s central bank, Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB) is thought to hold foreign currency, gold and other treasures in its vaults–most of which is said to be held outside Afghanistan.

  In addition to that, Western Union has also suspended money transfer services to Afghanistan “until further notice”.

  According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the country’s currency Afghani has fallen as much as 4.6% to 86.0625 per dollar on its fourth day of decline. 

  The Taliban won’t be able to easily finance Afghanistan on its time-honored trade of opium poppy farming, which it has pledged to ban. Afghanistan is estimated to be responsible for around 80% of global opium and heroin supplies. 

  According to a UN report from June,  the “primary sources of Taliban financing remain criminal activities,” including “drug trafficking and opium poppy production, extortion, kidnapping for ransom, mineral exploitation and revenues from tax collection in areas under Taliban control or influence.”

  But the alleged new and improved Taliban have promised not to be a drug dealing cartel any longer (along with pledges to respect women’s rights to some extent and to cease retaliatory violence). It would hardly behoove the IMF to fund the world’s biggest heroin operation.

  Following this week’s IMF and U.S. financial intervention, and considering that some 75% of public spending is financed through international aid grants, many believe that without opium, the Taliban can’t survive.

  So far, there is no evidence of any change of heart.

  Dozens of reports have emerged claiming that those failing to comply with Sharia law or Taliban “virtues” are being beaten up and tortured, mostly women and those who cooperated with U.S. forces in the country.

  The United Nations has warned that the Taliban are searching for people who worked with U.S. and NATO forces and are going “door to door” to find them.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 19:25

• Container Ship Movement At Suspended Port Terminal In China Signals Imminent Reopening
  Container Ship Movement At Suspended Port Terminal In China Signals Imminent Reopening

  Container ships resumed berthing operations after a two-week shutdown at one of the world’s busiest ports in China, according to Bloomberg. 

  The two-week closure of the Meishan Terminal in Ningbo, China, was due to a COVID infection at the port earlier this month. Chinese authorities suspended operations at the terminal, causing massive shipping delays and container backlogs. 

  The Meishan terminal handles about a quarter of the port’s volume and caused severe vessel congestion at the terminal and other surrounding ports. We noted this in a recent shipping note titled “China’s Top Port Shuttered For Seventh Day As Congestion Crisis Spreads.” 

  Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg shows five container ships have left the Meishan terminal in the past few days after berthing. Ningbo-Zhoushan port office released a notice Monday outlining the terminal was still closed. Still, the good news is the movement of vessels around the terminal has sparked optimism among shippers that full capacity could imminently return as long as there are no new COVID infections. 

  

  Shipping line CMA CGM SA told customers that Meishan terminal resumed partial operations on Aug. 18 and expected full operations by mid-September. Two of the French company’s ships, Rivoli and the Samson, were being loaded and would depart from the terminal “very soon,” the shipper said. Bloomberg data already shows the two vessels have already left the Ningbo region. 

  Ningbo port’s container throughput has been slashed by a quarter since Aug. 11, and congestion at other major Chinese ports has soared. Here is some data on the congestion in Asia from last week. 

  

  Throughput at the port will likely increase in the coming days in stages to whittle down the backlog of containers, with a full resumption of operations by mid-September. 

  However, increasing throughput at Ningbo could be bad news if departed vessels are headed for US West Coasts due to port congestion is at record highs. 

  The global supply chain remains an utter mess. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 19:05

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• Didi Cancels Planned UK/EU Expansion As Troubles With Beijing Drag On
  Didi Cancels Planned UK/EU Expansion As Troubles With Beijing Drag On

  With Chinese stocks still reeling from Beijing’s ongoing push to bring Big Tech to heel, the beleaguered ride-sharing app Didi has reportedly suspended plans to launch in Britain and Continental Europe, an expansion the company has been planning for years.

  The Telegraph reports that while Didi has secured licenses to operate in a handful of British cities. Didi secured licenses to operate in Manchester, Sheffield, Salford and Wolverhampton as part of its effort to challenge Uber directly in the UK.

  

  Beijing’s crackdown on the company, and the subsequent plunge in its share price – which, remember, reportedly prompted Didi to consider going private just a month after its IPO (the biggest involving a Chinese firm in the US since Alibaba listed in 2014) – may have inspired the decision to pull back, as Didi works to preserve its position and defend against encroachment both in China (where Beijing has tacitly encouraged rivals to step up) and the 15 other markets Didi presently operates in.

  Those markets include Australia, and parts of Africa and South America.

  The decision to pull back from the UK is particularly bad news for the Didi employees who were hired to focus on that market. The company no longer advertises any open jobs in the UK, and the Telegraph’s sources say cuts are coming in Europe within the next month (although some workers will be allowed to continue in other roles).

  When approached for comment by the Telegraph, a Didi spokeswoman shared the following statement:

  A Didi spokesman said: “We continue to explore additional new markets, liaising with relevant stakeholders in each and being thoughtful about when to introduce our services. As soon as we have news on additional new markets, we look forward to sharing it.”

  “We have established an international talent hub in the UK, recognising the exceptional quality of people in the market. Beyond that, any personnel matters remain strictly confidential. We seek to fully comply with all laws and regulations in all markets in which we operate.”

  Didi’s app remains un-downloadable across China (though nearly 1 billion Chinese consumers had already downloaded the app when it was forced off line over data privacy concerns). We still haven’t heard anything about the investigation in China, or how it’s going. But as far as its shares are concerned, one thing seems likely: China stocks will likely remain in the doghouse for some time.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 02:45

• Wither Germany?
  Wither Germany?

  Authored by Francis Lee via The Saker blog,

  Germany has been the keystone of the failing EU. Does it intend to remain so, or is it time to pursue its own interests?

  

  Germany has been and still is the most important economy in Europe, the export-driven colossus and if not yet the most important imperial power; that designation belongs to France with its Force de Frappe (Nuclear Strike Force), and additionally the UK which is also a member of the nuclear club but has since left the EU remains as a loyal – and oh so loyal! – member of NATO. However, Germany is without question the most dominant country in Europe and still the main creditor and funder of euro states. Looking back to the rise of (West) Germany was a key presence in the formation of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) in 1951. These various states pooled the coal and steel resources of six European countries: France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg which became known by the acronym – BENELUX. These states would be collectively known as “the Six”. It was argued that the pooling of coal and steel resources greatly reduced the threat of war between France and (West) Germany.

  It was perhaps entirely predictable that Germany with its system of Bismarckian style guided capitalism would emerge to poll position in this imperial club. At the time France had other, imperial and pressing commitments in Algeria and Indo-China, the British had commitments more or less everywhere East of Suez, and even little Belgium had problems in the Congo (Zaire). Germany had no such incumbrances on its economic development and was thus free to power ahead with its version of guided, bank-funded capitalism, and avoid the pitfalls of Anglo-American financialised capitalism. Under Chancellor Konrad Adenauer and Economics Minister Ludwig Erhard Germany’s rebirth was dubbed the Wirtschaftswunder (economic miracle). A far-reaching contract between business and labour unions allowed the rapid rebuilding of industry and strong growth, creating the foundations of an economic powerhouse.

  THE GERMAN MODEL

  The centrality of Germany and German economic policy in this shifting economic montage requires attention to the gradual increasing dominance of what is the de facto European economic dynamo. It was perhaps inevitable that Germany would – in economic terms at least – become the regional hegemon in this continental configuration. After all,

  ‘’ … it had a globally competitive industrial base, pivoting on automobiles, chemicals and machine tools. Its exports enabled it to command vast surpluses on current account thus providing the wherewithal to lend globally.’

  The peculiarities of the Anglo-American financialised system has not been replicated in Germany. To be sure Germany has a large and growing service sector similar to the financialised Atlanticist models this much is true; but Germany has also systematically defended its industrial sector, not least by manipulating the exchange rate to protect its exports of which many go to the other member states of the EU. The German manufacturing sector enjoys high levels of productivity, is export-based with relatively strong labour unions in wage negotiations compared to the rest of the private sector. But this did give rise to a two-tier labour market. The ‘good’ jobs were to be found in the export industries and the not so good jobs tended to be located in the internal domestic service sector.

  ‘’What happened from 2003 onwards to enable German capitalism to exploit its workers more intensely than before? In 2003-2005 the Social-Democratic Party (SPD) government implemented a number of wide-ranging labour-market reforms, the so-called Hartz Reforms, after one Herr Peter Hartz. The first three parts of the reform package, Hartz I-iii, were mainly concerned with, (i) mainly creating new types of employment opportunities (ii) introducing additional wage subsidies, (iii) instructing the Federal Employment Agency. The final parts of Hartz (iv) was implemented in 2005 and resulted in a significant cut in the unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed. Between 2005 and 2008 the unemployment rate fell from almost 11% to 7.5%, barely increased during the Great Recession of 2008 and continued its downward trend reaching 5.5% at the end of 2012, although it is still higher than was the case during the global period of expansion in the 1960s.’’

  GERMAN BANKING – FUNDS INDUSTRY AND DEVELOPMENT AT ALL LEVELS.

  Perhaps what was more important has been the banking system in Germany and its relationship to German industry.

  1.1 Savings banks (Sparkassen and Landesbanken)

  German savings banks are usually owned by the cities and villages. Formerly, each city had its own savings bank. Over the past 20 years, many savings banks have merged due to the competitive situation. As opposed to the big private Banks – Deutsche Bank, Commerz Bank whose main interests are in housing and stock market investment – the small and medium banks operate with a local focus.

  Although the savings banks have been losing customers for a number of years, they are still among the best-known. Often, the accounts are open, because the savings bank is “on the spot”. Later, when one has to deal with more finances, then there is often a change to another bank that is more cost-effective or offers better services. These banks provide funds to industry at good rates of interest, and this particularly applies to small start-up firms.

  1.2 Volksbanken / Raiffeisen Banken (cooperative banks)

  This is the next best-known bank organization in Germany. VR-banks – their abbreviation – are cooperative banks (Genossenschaftsbanken). They are organized similar to associations and are owned by their members. Members may only purchase very few shares of the bank so that no single person is enabled to have too much influence on the business of the bank.

  Just like the savings banks, the Volksbanken have to deal with a loss of customers. Although they have many branch offices, they can often not keep up with the price and service of the modern direct banks. In Germany, there are several hundred different VR-banks. They belong to the cooperative banks. Another successful innovation and feature of German development was the technical education of the German labour force.

  GERMAN TECHNICAL EDUCATION – SMEs AND THE MITTELSTAND

  The success of the German economy is driven by its small and medium Enterprises ( SMEs), a group to which more than 99 per cent of all firms in Germany belong. These companies account for more than half of Germany’s economic output and almost 60 per cent of jobs. Approximately 82 per cent of apprentices in Germany do their vocational training in an SME.

  These small and medium-sized companies (SMEs), also known as the ‘Mittelstand’, (4) are the country’s strongest driver of innovation and technology and are renowned across the world. Companies that want to keep their competitive edge must be at the forefront of new developments. A study on SMEs commissioned by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy shows that innovative SMEs will continue to drive the success behind the ‘Made in Germany’ trademark. Provided that they embrace new trends, particularly digitisation, and that they find ways of recruiting the skilled labour they need, even in times of a skills shortage, SMEs have every opportunity to remain successful in their chosen specialised niche markets.

  The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy wants Germany’s SMEs to embrace new challenges and remain vibrant, strong, and innovative. This is why the ministry is working on many levels to strengthen the Mittelstand’s competitiveness, its capacity to innovate, and its ability to create jobs.

  SMALL, DIVERSE, DYNAMIC, PIONEERING

  Germany’s small and medium-sized companies (SMEs) play a defining role in the country’s economy. Germany’s economic model derives its strength not from a small number of dominant players, industries, or industrial regions, but from the fact that Germany has a wide range of companies – small, medium-sized and large – that are based in locations all across Germany, specialise in all sorts of different sectors, and often form close networks with one another.

  Germany’s Mittelstand, is extremely diverse. Family-owned companies that were established generations ago, trendy start-ups, traditional crafts firms, self-employed people and service providers, retailers and freelancers, pioneering high-tech companies, regional suppliers and global players. The size of these  SMEs ranges from one person to several hundred employed across the globe. The Mittelstand has many well-established brands, but also newcomers and lesser-known brands that still deliver the same standard of quality, precision and innovation. It is this high level of diversity that makes it so strong.

  The Mittelstand also acts as a strong partner for large corporations, across the entire value chain. Mittelstand companies are often highly specialised and produce the type of up and downstream products that enable large corporations to create innovative and complex products, services and systems solutions

  Moreover, the Mittelstand is global in its reach. Some 44 per cent of German companies export their capital goods or intermediate goods to other markets, thereby contributing to the success of the German economy. At least one in two German firms that turn over 2 million euros or more per year are exporting companies. Even small companies benefit from venturing on foreign markets. This is attested by the fact that even very small firms generate an average of over 20 per cent of their turnover from exports.

  THE TWENTY FIRST CENTURY AND THE DOUBLE WHAMMY

  The German Economic model which had performed so well compared to its competitors – during the period from the Wirtshaftwunder until the 21st century – outmatched both European and North American rivals. But of course this golden age was to stutter in the late 1990s – the dot com bubble – and collapse completely during the 2008 and the property price debacle. For all its efficiency the German economy was, like the rest of the world, engulfed in the double whammy of the EU/euro crisis and the 2008 blow-out. Figures for growth make interesting reading.

  (These are World Bank figures for declining growth rates in both the developed and developing economies for the period of 1960s through 2009.

  • 1960s = 4.9%

  • 1970s = 3.93%

  • 1980s = 2.95%

  • 1990s =2.7%

  • 2000/09 = 2.58%

  It should be by now common knowledge that the global economy has been on a downward path for decades as can be seen from the above figures. Moreover, with the possible exception of China and some other East Asian dynamos, these figures did not improve in the post-2008 era, quite the contrary.

  Suffice it to say that the 2007/2008 explosion of the speculative bubble was avoided with massive injections (hmmm, sounds familiar) of ‘liquidity’ basically the extension of credit to the banking sector. Starting in 2008 the European Central Bank (ECB) lent the European banks money at an interest rate of 1%. (As did the Fed on the other side of the pond.) Predictably these same banks used that liquidity for speculation rather than lending to the productive sectors. In passing, we may say the Anglo-American financialised model – at least for Europe – didn’t work and given the objective situation shows no signs of working. In addition, the euro was stillborn with different rates of growth and trade between sometimes diverse member states. The euro was extended to other euro states, and particularly those in the southern bloc, which were far from enjoying the levels of productivity of the northern bloc. Europe’s weaker and less productive countries and thus of international competitiveness could not live with Germany’s productivity levels and low costs. The southern bloc could not devalue the euro – the centre-piece of the euro economy – and they ran up trade deficits with the German-dominated northern bloc which consistently ran up trade surpluses. Most commentators knew this apart from the brain-dead euro-elites who seemed impervious to the situation.

  Given these fundamental geopolitical and economic changes Germany would be wise to now examine its options.

  At the present time, another deeper and all-encompassing economic and financial crisis has occurred. The EU has, for better or worse, already had to swallow the departure of the UK from the EU; and it is not too difficult to imagine that this is only the beginning of a process of dissolution, particularly in light of the present and future possible political/economic developments. Moreover, the whole brouhaha which has already been instanced by the Nordstream-2 episode represented a win for one particular German faction – in this instance the business class – which now appears to be reorientating to a longer-term strategy of a pivot to Eurasia. It would appear to have won against the political class – including those lovely Greens who seem hot for a war against Russia. The German political and ideological class would appear to inhabit a different time-warp, circa 1989 and the fall of the Berlin Wall and moreover being hopelessly fixated with NATO, liberalism, globalism and everything American, including woke ideology.

  The same German business elite, however, seeks parallel factions together with other similar groupings in other financially strong and reliable countries, who wish to seek the expansion of Germany toward China and Russia. There are obvious reasons for this move. Both these countries have immense reserves of raw materials. Secondly, the level of Chinese economic growth and the size of its market is way above those of the EU. Thirdly, Germany’s relative technological superiority is an ideal for the inter-trade appropriation of Chinese surplus value. Fourthly, if bilateral trading relations continue at the current pace, Beijing will become Germany’s main trading partner by early 2023 at the earliest. Fifthly, for China, Germany, is the optimal country for the best investment opportunities.

  So this is the current situation with the Nordstream-2 instalment concentrating the minds of those who have read the runes of Germany’s future development with newer and dynamic trading partners east of the Oder-Neisse line. We shall wait and we shall see for such developments.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 02:00

• The Second Amendment Is About Rifles Not Racism
  The Second Amendment Is About Rifles Not Racism

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  Below are my thoughts on academic work claiming that the Second Amendment is a relic of slavery. The reframing of the debate follows a familiar pattern in academia. Indeed, the same type of sweeping (and unchallenged) generalities was used recently to declare Olympic surfing a relic of American imperialism. The framing of such claims often precede any search for the facts. However, academics know that there is an eager and unquestioning audience for such publications. Conversely, those academics challenging such claims risk isolation and shunning in today’s intolerant environment. What is most striking about this latest claim is that it is directly and comprehensively contradicted by historical sources. Yet, there are relatively few academics who have publicly challenged the claims as media heralds the theory as a type of breakthrough publication. As discussed earlier, the theory is neither new nor well-founded.

  

  Racism seems to be the most common denominator of today’s political controversies.

  Issues long debated over other grounds — the Senate’s filibuster rule, voter ID laws, even standardized testing, math, statistics and meritocracy — have all been reframed as a choice between racism and equality.

  The reframing of such issues in racial terms removes any need to respond to other issues — and it relieves advocates of defending the racism charge. It may be the ultimate conversation stopper — but that advantage is precisely its weakness, particularly when racist roots are less than evident.

  The latest example comes from the American Civil Liberties Union, which posted a discussion of how the Second Amendment is a product of racism. Supporting commentary explained how “Anti-Blackness determined the inclusion of the Second Amendment in the Bill of Rights, and has informed the unequal and racist application of gun laws.”

  Some media and legal commentators have fawned over a new book, “The Second: Race and Guns in a Fatally Unequal America,” by Dr. Carol Anderson, chair of Emory University’s Black Studies Department. Anderson claims the Second Amendment “was designed and has consistently been constructed to keep African Americans powerless and vulnerable.” In interviews with media outlets like CNN and NPR, her theory was not challenged on the Second Amendment’s history or purpose, despite overwhelming (and largely ignored) evidence to the contrary. Instead, NPR breathlessly billed its interview as “Historian Carol Anderson Uncovers The Racist Roots Of The Second Amendment.”

  Slavery was a matter discussed both at the Declaration of Independence and during the Constitutional debates. However, the suggestion that it was a primary motivation for the Second Amendment is utter nonsense.

  States opposed to slavery, like Vermont, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New York and Rhode Island, had precursor state constitutional provisions recognizing the right to bear arms. In his famous 1770 defense of Capt. Thomas Preston in the Boston Massacre trial, John Adams declared that British soldiers had a right to defend themselves since “here every private person is authorized to arm himself.” His second cousin and co-Founding Father, Samuel Adams, was vehemently anti-slavery and equally supportive of the right to bear arms.

  Guns were viewed as essential in much of America, which was then a frontier nation, needed for food — but also to protect a free people from tyranny and other threats. (The Minutemen at Concord, after all, were not running to a Klan meeting in 1775.) Law enforcement was relatively scarce at the time, even in the more populous states — but, of course, some writers today claim the first police departments were products of slavery, too, used to enforce that system and to recapture escaped slaves.

  The latest claim is reminiscent of the controversy over “The 1619 Project” produced by New York Times journalist Nikole Hannah-Jones, who claimed the American Revolution was motivated in large part to preserve slavery. Hannah-Jones clearly came up with her framing before looking at the facts, which directly contradict her claim. While at least one historian objected during the fact-checking process, it was published and only later corrected, along with other errors.

  The Second Amendment claim is equally unfounded, but the argument allows for advocates to argue that this original “antiblackness” continues to shape “the unequal and racist application of gun laws.” This argument is maintained despite the fact that a quarter of African Americans are gun owners (compared with 36 percent of whites) and gun sales have been increasing in the African American community. Some African Americans have long viewed guns as an equalizer, including escaped slave and famed abolitionist Frederick Douglass, who, in an editorial, heralded the power of “a good revolver, a steady hand.” Gun ownership has a long, fiercely defended tradition in the Black community. Indeed, Ida B. Wells, one of the most prominent anti-lynching activists, declared: “The Winchester Rifle deserves a place of honor in every Black home.”

  For decades, the meaning of the Second Amendment wallowed in a debate over whether the right to bear arms is an individual right. Gun-control advocates lost that debate before the Supreme Court in 2008. Now, however, critics can dispense with such long-standing arguments by claiming the amendment is a relic of slavery and a tool of racism. That instantly converts any Second Amendment defenders into advocates not of freedom but of anti-blackness and oppression. It simplifies the argument and silences opposing views.

  Indeed, in today’s standard, it is not enough to be non-racist, you must prove yourself to be anti-racist.

  Yet it is hard to establish yourself as anti-racist if you are defending rules or amendments or countries already decried as being racist.

  Moreover, if you are trained to view everything through an anti-racist lens, it can become the only discernible option — like the old military adage that “if you only have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.”

  It is even dangerous today to observe that any given legal problem is not a problem of racism. Some are; many are not. But if everything is a product or relic of racism, the “racism” label becomes less notable or less imperative to address.

  There is no need to rewrite history. Racism permeates our history, including a war in which hundreds of thousands of many races died to end slavery in this country.

  We have continued that struggle through the Civil Rights period and into the current day. But those efforts are hampered, not advanced, by converting all political disputes into zero-sum fights over racism, which leaves little room for debate and even less room for persuasion.

  The resulting silence is not evidence of consensus but of intimidation. Racism is real, but it cannot be defeated if it is reduced to a political trump card.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/24/2021 – 00:00

• NASA Postpones Spacewalk As China Completes Second
  NASA Postpones Spacewalk As China Completes Second

  NASA is postponing a spacewalk at the International Space Station (ISS) on Tuesday “due to a minor medical issue” involving one astronaut. This comes as China conducted the second spacewalk on the country’s new space station on Friday as the superpower rivalry intensifies beyond this world. 

  NASA said Tuesday’s spacewalk outside the ISS with US astronaut Mark Vande Hei and JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) astronaut Akihiko Hoshide had been delayed due to a “minor medical” issue involving Vande Hei. The extent of the health issue was not revealed by the space agency but said it’s “not a medical emergency.” 

  

  Both astronauts were expected to install brackets on the ISS to support new solar arrays. 

  Meanwhile, on Friday, the Chinese conducted their second spacewalk outside their new space station’s core module, called Tianhe (“Harmony of the Heavens”). 

  

  Tianhe is part of communist China’s space program to dominate low Earth orbit and possibly surpass the US in military and scientific capabilities in outer space in the coming decades. 

  We see the next battleground of superpower rivalry between the US and China in space. Tensions beyond Earth will increase as both countries are in a race to launch imaging, telecoms, and 6G satellites, along with conducting probing missions of moons and planets for rare metals and other valuable raw materials. 

  The US spacewalk is rescheduled after the SpaceX CRS-23 cargo resupply mission is completed this weekend and two Russian spacewalks on Sept. 2 and 8. 

  While NASA’s ISS is more than two decades old and nearing its lifespan, the Russians have said they will withdraw from the ISS by 2025. This means that China is building an advanced space station as the US is still using the 23-year old ISS that is rapidly aging, posing a danger for astronauts. ISS crew recently had to hunt for a mystery air leak. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 23:40

• Nearby Planetary System May Have The Right Conditions To Host Life
  Nearby Planetary System May Have The Right Conditions To Host Life

  Authored by Lu Xiao via The Epoch Times,

  Astronomers researched a planetary system only 35 light-years away that contains rocky exoplanets, and they found that it may have a planet in the habitable zone, the area around a star where conditions are suitable for liquid water to exist.

  

  An artist’s impression of L 98-59b, one of the planets in the L 98-59 system 35 light-years away. The system contains four confirmed rocky planets with a potential fifth, the furthest from the star, being unconfirmed. (ESO/M. Kornmesser)

  Using the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope in Chile, a team of astronomers studied the planets around the nearby star L 98-59, which has planets resembling those in the inner solar system.

  Among their findings is a planet with half the mass of Venus, which is the lightest exoplanet ever measured with the radial velocity technique, according to a statement. They also discovered a planet that could be an ocean world as well as a possible planet in the habitable zone.

  “The planet in the habitable zone may have an atmosphere that could protect and support life,” María Rosa Zapatero Osorio, an astronomer at the Centre for Astrobiology in Madrid, Spain, and one of the authors of the study, said in the statement.

  The new findings mark a milestone in scientists’ quest to find life on other planets.

  The findings include a technical breakthrough, since the team used the radial velocity method to discover the small mass of the innermost planet in the system.

  This method measures the tiny gravitational pull of an orbiting planet on the host star. Based on how much the star moves, astronomers can estimate the exoplanet’s mass.

  Then, given the mass and size of the exoplanet, scientists can calculate its density, which helps determine its composition: Denser ones are likely rocky, while fluffier ones are gaseous.

  “If we want to know what a planet is made of, the minimum that we need is its mass and its radius,” explained Olivier Demangeon, a researcher at the Instituto de Astrofísica e Ciências do Espaço, University of Porto in Portugal, and lead author of the study, in the statement.

  The above-described type of measurement, however, is very hard to achieve. The team made use of the Echelle SPectrograph for Rocky Exoplanets and Stable Spectroscopic Observations (ESPRESSO) instrument on board the Very Large Telescope.

  “Without the precision and stability provided by ESPRESSO this measurement would have not been possible,” Osorio said in the statement.

  “This is a step forward in our ability to measure the masses of the smallest planets beyond the Solar System.”

  The detection of biosignatures on exoplanets relies on the study of the planets’ atmospheres, but today’s telescopes are not powerful enough to achieve this with small rocky planets. According to the statement, the L 98-59 planetary system is a potential target for future studies of exoplanets’ atmospheres.

  Based on the data analyses, the team inferred that three of the planets in this system may contain water. The two planets closest to the central star may have small amounts of water, while the third planet’s mass could be up to 30 percent water.

  Hidden exoplanets not previously found may exist in this planetary system. The team discovered a fourth planet and even suspect there is a fifth planet in the zone where liquid water may exist on its surface.

  “We have hints of the presence of a terrestrial planet in the habitable zone of this system,” Demangeon said in the statement.

  The fifth exoplanet, if confirmed, may have a mass of 2.46 Earth mass, with an orbital period of about 23 days. Although this is quite close to the host star, since L 98-59 is a red dwarf, which is much cooler than the sun, this distance is perfect for creating temperatures similar to Earth’s.

  “This system announces what is to come,” added Demangeon.

  “We, as a society, have been chasing terrestrial planets since the birth of astronomy and now we are finally getting closer and closer to the detection of a terrestrial planet in the habitable zone of its star, of which we could study the atmosphere.”

  The new research is published in a paper in a forthcoming volume of Astronomy & Astrophysics.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 23:20

• How Biden's American Families Plan Could "Destroy" Iowa Farmers
  How Biden’s American Families Plan Could “Destroy” Iowa Farmers

  In April, President Biden announced the American Families Plan (AFP) that promises billions of dollars as “an investment in our kids, our families, and our economic future.” But deep within the proposal, it describes gains on property transfers would be considered a taxable event. 

  Conservative news outlet The Center Square called out the Biden administration on Thursday for attempting to “destroy Iowa family farms” through the proposed AFP property transfer tax. 

  AFP describes gains on property transferred at death or by gift would exclude up to $1 million per taxpayer. The exclusion would be indexed for inflation after 2022.

  Craig Hill, the president of Iowa Farm Bureau, calls the proposed transfer tax a “major threat” for family farms in the corn-growing state who pass along significant sums of farmland to the next generation to work. 

  AFP can be compared with Biden’s Rural Plan that calls for “partners with rural communities to invest in their unique assets, with the goal of giving young people more options to live, work, and raise the next generation in rural America – making sure the wealth created in rural America stays in rural America.”

  The Rural Plan says it will “make it easier to pass farms and ranches onto the next generation.”

  

  However, Hill told The Center Square that is not the case. He said the transfer tax could devastate some families who don’t have enough money to pay the tax because land values have been artificially inflated with cheap money from the Federal Reserve. 

  Crunching numbers, the planned exemption for a married couple is a million dollars. Anything above, the couple would be taxed at 40%. Given typical Iowa farm size is 359 acres on average at $7,559 per acre, that would leave the couple with $1.7 million exposed to taxes. After the exemption, this means they might owe $680,000. 

  Given that farmers have already experienced a decade of depressed farm income and razor-thin margins, the ability to pay a hefty tax on a land transfer could force lower-income farmers to sell.  

  Sen. John Boozman of Arkansas serves as the top Republican on the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, said the “land swap tax would dry up the farmland market, create barriers to entry for new or beginning farmers, and stunt agriculture business growth and reinvestment in much of rural America.”

  So what’s the real agenda of the Biden administration pushing the tax proposal ahead that could wreck small farmers and force them to sell? Well, we can only speculate vultures like Bill Gates and big Wall Street private equity firms circling the Midwest waiting for distressed farm sales. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 23:00

• Quantifying The "Staggering Costs" Of US Military Equipment Left Behind In Afghanistan
  Quantifying The “Staggering Costs” Of US Military Equipment Left Behind In Afghanistan

  Authored by Adam Andrzejewski via Forbes.com,

  The U.S. provided an estimated $83 billion worth of training and equipment to Afghan security forces since 2001. This year, alone, the U.S. military aid to Afghan forces was $3 billion.

  

  Putting price tags on American military equipment still in Afghanistan isn’t an easy task. In the fog of war – or withdrawal – Afghanistan has always been a black box with little sunshine.

  Not helping transparency, the Biden Administration is now hiding key audits on Afghan military equipment. This week, our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com reposted two key reports on the U.S. war chest of military gear in Afghanistan that had disappeared from federal websites.

  #1. Government Accountability Office (GAO) audit of U.S. provided military gear in Afghanistan (August 2017): reposted report (dead link: report).

  #2. Special Inspector General For Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) audit of $174 million in lost ScanEagle drones (July 2020): reposted report (dead link: report).

  U.S. taxpayers paid for these audits and the U.S.-provided equipment and should be able to follow the money.

  After publication, the GAO spokesman responded to our request for comment, “the State Department requested we temporarily remove and review reports on Afghanistan to protect recipients of US assistance that may be identified through our reports and thus subject to retribution.” However, these reports only have numbers and no recipient information.

  Furthermore, unless noted, when estimating “acquisition value,” our source is the Department Logistics Agency (DLA) and their comprehensive databases of military equipment.

  Vehicles and airplanes

  Between 2003 and 2016, the U.S. purchased and provided 75,898 vehicles and 208 aircraft, to the Afghan army and security forces, according to a Government Accountability Office report.

  

  Quantities and examples of key U.S.-funded Military Vehicles for Afghanistan.  OPENTHEBOOKS.COM

  Here is a breakdown of estimated vehicle costs:

  • Armored personnel carriers such as the M113A2 cost $170,000 each and recent purchases of the M577A2 post carrier cost $333,333 each. 

  • Mine resistant vehicles ranges from $412,000 to $767,000. The total cost could range between $382 million to $711 million.

  • Recovery vehicles such as the ‘truck, wrecker’ cost between for the base model $168,960 and $880,674 for super strength versions.

  • Medium range tactical vehicles include 5-ton cargo and general transport trucks were priced at $67,139. However, the family of MTV heavy vehicles had prices ranging from $235,500 to $724,820 each. Cargo trucks to transport airplanes cost $800,865.

  • Humvees – ambulance type (range from $37,943 to $142,918 with most at $96,466); cargo type, priced at $104,682. Utility Humvees were typically priced at $91,429. However, the 12,000 lb. troop transport version cost up to $329,000.

  • Light tactical vehicles: Fast attack combat vehicles ($69,400); and passenger motor vehicles ($65,500). All terrain 4-wheel vehicles go up to $42,273 in the military databases.

  

  U.S.-Funded Aircraft For the Afghan Forces  OPENTHEBOOKS.COM

  This month, the Taliban seized Black Hawk helicopters and A-29 Super Tucano attack aircraft. As late as last month, Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defense posted photos on social media of seven newly arrived helicopters from the U.S., Reuters reported.

  Black Hawk helicopters can cost up to $21 million. In 2013, the U.S. placed an order for 20 A-29 Super Tucano attack aircraft for $427 million – that’s $21.3 million for each plane. Other specialized helicopters can cost up to $37 million each.

  The Afghan air force contracted for C-208 light attack airplanes in March 2018: seven planes for $84.6 million, or $12.1 million each. The airplanes are very sophisticated and carry HELLFIRE missiles, anti-tank missiles and other weaponry.

  The PC-12 intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance airplanes use the latest in technology. Having these planes fall into Taliban control is disconcerting. Civilian models sell new for approximately $5 million each and the military planes could sell for many times that price.

  Basic fixed-wing airplanes range in price from $3.1 million to $22 million in the DLA database.

  Of course, helicopter prices also range widely depending on the technology, purpose, and equipment. For example, according to the DLA, general purpose helicopters range in price from $92,000 to $922,000. Observation helicopters can cost $92,000 and utility helicopters up to $922,000.

  Even if the Taliban can’t fly our planes, the parts are very valuable. For example, just the control stick for certain military planes has an acquisition value of $17,808 and a fuel tank sells for up to $35,000.

  Lost drones

  In 2017, the U.S. military lost $174 million in drones that were part of the attempt to help the Afghan National Army (ANA) defend itself. But the ANA didn’t immediately use the drones and then lost track of them.

  This week, the SIGAR audit on the $174 million drone loss disappeared from its website.

  Weapons, communications equipment, and night vision googles

  Since 2003 the U.S. gave Afghan forces at least 600,000 infantry weapons, including M16 rifles, 162,000 pieces of communication equipment, and 16,000 night-vision goggle devices, according to the GAO report.

  

  Key Weaponry funded by U.S. into Afghanistan  OPENTHEBOOKS.COM

  The howitzer is the modern cannon for the U.S. military and each unit can cost up to $500,000; however most are in the $200,000 price range. At the higher end, there’s GPS guidance on fired shells.

  A common price of a M16 rifle is $749, according to DLA. Adding a grenade launcher can push the price of the M16 to $12,032. M4 carbine rifles are slightly more expensive with unit prices as high as $1,278.

  Just the sights on night-vision sniper rifle scopes can run as high as $35,000, however, most vary in price between $5,000 and $10,000.

  Here are the costs of other types of weaponry provided to Afghan forces:

  • Machine guns, i.e. the M240 model, were priced between $6,600 and $9,000 each.

  • Grenade launchers cost between $1,000 and $5,000 each; however, in 2020, the manufacture sold 53 for $15,000 each.

  • Army shotguns were acquired for only $150 each, according to DLA.

  • Military pistols cost $320 each, such as the .40 caliber Glock Generation 3.

  

  Key U.S.-Funded Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Equipment into Afghanistan  OPENTHEBOOKS.COM

  Each Aerostat surveillance balloon costs $8.9 million. Each ScanEagle drone costs approximately $1.4 million according to recent procurement news. Even as late at 2021, U.S. appropriations for the Wolfhounds radio monitoring systems approached $874,000.

  Night vision devices: The total cost for the 16,000 night-vision goggles alone could run as high as $80 million. Individually, the high-tech goggles were priced between $2,742 and $5,000 by the DLA. Other equipment like image intensifiers are commonly priced at $10,747 each; however, sophisticated models run as high as $66,000 each.

  Radio equipment: the cost of equipment adds up – receiver-transmitters ($210,651); sophisticated radio sets ($61,966); amplifiers ($28,165); repeater sets ($28,527); and deployment sets to identify frequencies run up to $18,908.

  However, if the Taliban doesn’t have the expertise or technologies to program the equipment, it will become obsolete quickly. Or it could be sold off to other countries who wanted to acquire U.S. technology.

  And there’s more… years 2017 through 2019

  From 2017 to 2019, the U.S. also gave Afghan forces 7,035 machine guns, 4,702 Humvees, 20,040 hand grenades, 2,520 bombs and 1,394 grenade launchers, according to the since removed 2020 SIGAR report, reported by The Hill.

  An unnamed official told Reuters that current intelligence assessment was that the Taliban took control of more than 2,000 armored vehicles, including American Humvees, and as many as 40 aircraft that may include UH-60 Black Hawks, scout attack helicopters and ScanEagle military drones.

  Crucial quote

  “We don’t have a complete picture, obviously, of where every article of defense materials has gone, but certainly a fair amount of it has fallen into the hands of the Taliban,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Tuesday, The Hill reported.

  “And obviously, we don’t have a sense that they are going to readily hand it over to us at the airport.”

  Critic

  Republican Senators have demanded that there be a full count of U.S. military equipment left in Afghanistan.

  In a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, the lawmakers said they were “horrified” to see photos of Taliban militants taking hold of military equipment, including Black Hawk helicopters.

  “It is unconscionable that high-tech military equipment paid for by U.S. taxpayers has fallen into the hands of the Taliban and their terrorist allies,” the lawmakers said in the letter.

  “Securing U.S. assets should have been among the top priorities for the U.S. Department of Defense prior to announcing the withdrawal from Afghanistan.”

  *  *  *

  Further reading

  Planes, guns, night-vision goggles: The Taliban’s new U.S.-made war chest

  Billions in US weaponry seized by Taliban

  US military equipment left in Afghanistan needs full accounting, GOP senators say

  Billions spent on Afghan army ultimately benefited Taliban

  Note:

  Procurement prices can vary widely over a 20-year period. Factors influencing prices include when the item was purchased, quantities, and other acquisition details.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 22:40

• Australian Truck Drivers Vow To Block Every Major Highway In Radical Anti-Lockdown Strike
  Australian Truck Drivers Vow To Block Every Major Highway In Radical Anti-Lockdown Strike

  As Australians take to the streets to protest the country’s lockdown measures – most recently clashing with police over the weekend, Aussie truck drivers are planning to shut down every major highway across the country and have advised people to ‘stock up on groceries.’

  

  One driver, according to the Daily Mail, declared in a video that truck drivers are ‘planning to shut down the country’ to ‘remove the shit government’ on August 31 beginning at 9 a.m.

  “It’s on. The truckies are doing it. The truckies are going to shut down the country,” the man says, adding “What that means is you need to go shopping now, get what you can for the next week or two, load your fridge, freezers.”

  He said supply chains would soon be interrupted and urged Aussies to stock up on groceries to get them through the next couple of weeks. 

  A GoFundMe page has since been launched to support the truckies financially as they prepare to strike from 9am on Tuesday August 31, which will involve ‘blocking every highway entering into every state at the same time’. -Daily Mail

  According to the man, truck drivers have been in discussion with people from around ‘the world,’ and have been working with war veterans to carry out the protest.

  “The truckies are in, the VETS are in, I’m in. I’m willing to go to jail to save my country and children,” said the man.

  It is unknown how many truck drivers are involved in the demonstration, however truck drivers from around the globe have been posting advice online on how to impede efforts by authorities to tow their vehicles.

  A GoFundMe page which appears to have been taken down had raised nearly $4,000 for the effort.

  

  If the protest proceeds, it won’t be the first time truckies have blocked roads in protest of pandemic restrictions. Last month, several trucks protested the temporary closure of construction in Sydney by parking their vehicles on the freeway and blaring their horns.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 22:20

• Is Afghanistan The First Domino To Fall?
  Is Afghanistan The First Domino To Fall?

  Authored by Tim Kirby via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  It certainly looks like a domino that has been put in position poised to fall waiting for others to take their places in the line.

  

  With America withdrawing from Afghanistan abruptly after some 20 years, one big question is being discussed throughout the strategic sphere by those both in big institutions and laying on their couches – is the American loss in Afghanistan the first domino to fall in the eventual collapse of the Global Hegemon? After all, Afghanistan is the “graveyard of empires” probably because it is an expression that sounds nice and because the Soviets fell apart a few years after losing to the locals. So this must be the “beginning of the end” right?

  Well, we should never be so quick as to jump onto narrow narratives without looking at the big picture. Side-by-side images of the Americans and their allies fleeing Vietnam and Afghanistan by helicopter are flooding Facebook, posted by those in the Alternative Media who take great joy in any loss by the 21st century’s “Evil Empire” but they seem to forget that just a few decades after losing in Vietnam the United States won the Cold War and took dominance over the planet.

  

  Image: Strategic meme-of-the-year material for 2021.

  No single event no matter how photogenic it is, is not going to be a sign of the grand demise of the “Sole Hyperpower”. It really took from the beginning of WWI till the end of WWII for the British to truly fall apart as a geopolitical force. The Soviet Union fell much quicker, but it is very widely believed that Perestroika (or the The Reykjavik Summit) was the real first white flag that devolved into the breakup of the union years later. The Roman Empire was a vastly slower burn than either of these two modern behemoths.

  This means we should not be debating if Afghanistan is the first “domino” to fall, but instead we should really take a look at what the rest of the dominos falling would look like. At this point we can surely put together a rough picture of what the next tiles to fall would look like, i.e. what other major failures/events would really be signs of the Monopolar World meeting its demise? The following are a few humble offerings as to what these dominos could be…

  Abandoning the Maidan Regime in the Ukraine

  The unexpected surrender and soon to be total fall of Kabul has certainly resonated in another city that starts with the letter K. If Washington is finding it necessary to abandon a twenty-year Nation-Building project that they have invested vast sums of money and manpower into, that means that back-burner Kiev could be cut loose in the near future, putting the fate of the region in the hands of the Russians.

  

  Image: We all know who secures Ukrainian “independence”.

  The Maidan has been a major roadblock for Russia. As Brzeziński wrote, “It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire” and Washington has done an absolutely fantastic job of turning the region into an “anti-Russia” as Putin recently called it.

  If the Maidan project were to be abandoned, it would become another quite massive domino. Washington giving up on Kiev, resulting in that current political entity probably being divided up, mostly going to Moscow, would symbolize either the USA’s inability to stop the rise of the Russians or their begrudging acceptance of it.

  Taiwan, Hong Kong and/or South Korea

  The Trump-era State Department Democracy storm that was inflicted on Hong Kong has seemed to fade away, but a total abandonment of the thorns in the side of the Chinese Dragon would also result in another domino being placed into position.

  

  Image: Not State Department = No Professional Protest Organizers in China.

  Bailing on Hong Kong activists or failing to maintain Taiwan’s independence would certainly present a strong sign of weakness and inability from the standpoint of Washington. Furthermore, although China has never had a passionate love for the North Koreans, having South Korea as essentially an American beachhead right next door has been a cause of concern for decades for Beijing. The South Korean economy on paper looks amazing and their cities dazzle with progress but what would be the effects of Ameria giving up on them? Is South Korea able to stand as a great nation, or is it really only successful thanks to the American umbrella? The answer to that would reveal itself within two weeks of an America-free Korean Peninsula.

  Simply put, if Washington gives up on Hong Kong, Taiwan and/or South Korea it is another sign of the end for sure as China would be more or less rid of these weak points that have been exploited against it for decades.

  A Loss of Control Over the “Bigs”

  Big Tech, Big Pharma, Big Agro and so on, have dutifully served Washington’s interests despite their theoretically international nature. But we should never forget that large for-profit entities are quite “whoreish” and will serve whichever master they need to. If Washington cannot control the Bigs as it used to, this would be another domino.

  To a small extent this is happening in Hollywood where the Chinese market’s (and its official and unofficial) demands are having a major impact. But if it comes to a point that Hollywood is only making a chunk of the world’s blockbusters rather than nearly all of them it would be the end of the total unobstructed Soft Power dominance of this American institution. Or even worse, if Hollywood can be bought out from under America then a new global narrative could be spun quite quickly.

  If the Hegemon fades, the leadership of the Bigs will feel increasing pressure from the Russians, Chinese and Arabs to give up the whole “gay thing” and portray these societies in a positive light whether through bribery or threats of force. Apple may be “designed in California” but if need be they would surely bail for greener pastures rather than living a life of poverty loyal to a failed America.

  Mexico, Lakotastan and African-America

  The United States has done a fantastic job of fostering independence movements within its rivals while making diverse masses “American” at home. However, as with the Soviets and the British, waves of breakaway republics and successful secessionist movements would be a very big domino indeed.

  The Soviets tried to create an African workers uprising in America in the 60’s and failed miserably, but BLM could get out of control, or in the case of a dying USA, could become used by foreign powers. An Afro-American Maidan would certainly be another sign of doom.

  The rise of an independent Native-American state like the Lakota Indians’ lands would be yet another tile being stood into place, opening the door for further break-away attempts.

  When the Mexicans lost the Mexican-American war they lost the chance to become the dominant power on the continent. Few remember, but the destiny of this New World was not just given to the Americans wrapped in a box. If the Mexicans had won the war they would be the ones with access to the Atlantic (via the Gulf of Mexico) and the Pacific simultaneously, not Washington. It would have been very possible for them to secure the entire West Coast. A Mexico that would begin to take action as an independent actor would certainly be another sign of serious trouble for Washington. Thus far, on the North American continent “there can be only one” but perhaps that isn’t necessarily going to always remain the same “one”.

  The death of the Dollar or collapse of the Federal Reserve

  If the dollar were to collapse, or there were serious problems at the Federal Reserve, as have been predicted for many years due to insane national debt, this would of course be the biggest domino of all. The West has been able to accumulate bafflingly massive debt with no consequences because of the dominance of Washington. It is very hard to call in a debt from the toughest kid school surrounded by his henchmen. But when the big bully stops growing, and loses his buddies, all of a sudden getting your $5 back with a few whacks from a baseball bat becomes viable.

  

  Image: If you are powerful enough no one can call in your debts.

  No one can call in the debt of a Global Hegemon, but Regional Powers have to balance their checkbook. A decrease in power could lead to the national debt prophecy coming true in our lifetimes which would be probably the largest domino of all.

  In conclusion

  Is Afghanistan “the first domino to fall” in the death of the American Empire? This cannot be proven, but it certainly looks like a domino that has been put in position poised to fall waiting for others to take their places in the line. Other major defeats would be required to say for sure that this “New American Century” is over, not even making it to the one-fourth mark. It is really the other potential signs of the end that are of most concern not squabbling over Afghanistan’s domino status. So the big question is, if Washington is losing its Monopolar World Order, then where will be the next grand retreats?

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 22:00

• Coinbase President Says USDC Reserves Will Now Be Held Only In Cash And Short Term Treasuries
  Coinbase President Says USDC Reserves Will Now Be Held Only In Cash And Short Term Treasuries

  Coinbase’s President and COO said this week that Coinbase’s reserves of its USDC stablecoin are going to now be held in cash and treasuries.

  Digital currency company Circle had said back in July that the some of the $27 billion in assets backing USDC would also be held in corporate and commercial bonds.

  Centre, a consortium founded by Circle and crypto exchange Coinbase, wrote in a blog post this weekend: “Mindful of community sentiment, our commitment to trust and transparency, and an evolving regulatory landscape, Circle, with the support of Centre and Coinbase, has announced that it will now hold the USDC reserve entirely in cash and short duration US Treasuries. These changes are being implemented expeditiously and will be reflected in future attestations by Grant Thornton.”

  

  Bloomberg added on Monday:

  Centre, the consortium that includes Coinbase and Circle, revealed in July that 61% of the reserves were in risk-free assets like cash and its equivalents, but that some of the reserves were in assets that contain some risk of default, such as corporate debt and certificates of deposit with foreign banks. An additional 12% of the funds were in Treasury bonds, which aren’t considered a default risk but also aren’t as liquid as cash.

  The revelation in July stood at odds with Coinbase’s website, which had previously said that all USD Coin was “backed by dollars in a bank account”. 

  Coinbase President and COO Emilie Choi admitted that the company was in error after Circle made the revelation. 

  1/ Quick update on USDC. Starting September 2021, USDC reserves will be held in cash and short-duration US government treasuries. This is the approach we want for USDC reserves. https://t.co/29liaGg2LA

  — Emilie Choi (@emiliemc) August 23, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “USDC has always been fully backed by reserves equal to or greater than the USDC in circulation, giving users the ability to always redeem 1 USD Coin for US$1.00,” she wrote. “We know that a lot of customers get USDC on Coinbase, and we previously said that every USDC is ‘backed by a dollar in a bank account.’ Our language could have been clearer here.”

  “When Circle shared their May report about USDC reserves in late July (which included a more diversified pool of investments for the first time) we should have moved faster to update statements like that on our website. That was a mistake and Coinbase takes ownership for that,” Choi concluded.

  Though the move may seem like a seismic revelation, not all analysts agree. 

  “The old investment rules for USD Coin were perfectly sound. Circle is making a splashy announcement to address a problem that doesn’t exist, in hopes of making itself
  seem more prudent than rivals,” said Aaron Brown, a crypto investor who writes for Bloomberg Opinion.

  USDC is the world’s second largest stablecoin. The world’s largest stablecoin, Tether, is currently under scrutiny by Washington for its claim that each token is backed by one U.S. dollar, either through cash or assets like bonds. Regulators continue to seek to examine if a run on stablecoins could cause a selloff in the underlying assets backstopping them. 
   

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 21:40

• Rare Breed Triggers Fires Back At ATF, Says "Will Not Comply" ​​​​​​​
  Rare Breed Triggers Fires Back At ATF, Says “Will Not Comply” ​​​​​​​

  Lawrence DeMonico, president of Rare Breed Triggers (RBT), brought everyone up to speed in a new video statement regarding the lawsuit filed by RBT against the Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF), Department of Justice (DoJ), and Attorney General (AG). He addresses the ATF’s attempted to redefine the term “machine gun” to apply it to RBT’s FRT-15 semi-automatic trigger in contradiction to federal law (Gun Control Act and National Firearms Act).

  On July 27, DeMonico said the ATF Tampa Field Division, accompanied by a government attorney, personally served him and his attorney with a cease and desist letter, informing him that his FRT-15 trigger had been classified as a “machine gun.” The letter went on to say that RBT needs to halt all manufacturing and sales of the FRT-15 and discuss a strategy to address the triggers that have already been sold. 

  

  DeMonico said the directives laid out in the cease and desist letter were based on an “alleged examination” of the trigger had been “properly classified as a “machine gun” as defined by the National Firearms Act. He said “alleged” because no copy of the examination was provided with the cease and desist. 

  And to blow readers’ minds, DeMonico said when he spoke to special agents who personally served him the cease and desist letter – they said they haven’t even seen the copy of the “examination” nor haven’t even seen an actual FRT-15. 

  DeMonico then goes on to say how the FRT-15 is not a machine as it will not fire more than one round by a single function of the trigger – that’s important to note because that’s the most critical part of the definition of a machine gun in the Gun Control Act and National Firearms Act. 

  He said RBT immediately responded to the ATF’s cease and desist that they disagreed with their “claim” and “wouldn’t be complying with their demand,” adding that his attorney had filed a lawsuit in the Middle District of Florida. 

  For more, DeMonico explained, “why he is so confident in our opinion of the facts and be so brazen in our non-compliance.” 

  DeMonico concludes by saying the ATF was able to reinterpret a law under the Trump administration and enabled them to ban bump stocks through executive fiat that sets a “terrifying precedent.”  

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 21:20

• Why Goldman Sees Oil Hitting New Highs After Recent Rout
  Why Goldman Sees Oil Hitting New Highs After Recent Rout

  Over the weekend, we presented one explanation behind the recent plunge in the price of oil which dragged it close to a bear market from its post-covid highs just one month earlier: as Rabobank’s Ryan Fitzmaurice said, it was the short-term momentum and some trend signals that turned bearish this week. Furthermore, medium-term momentum signals are also at risk of flipping from “long” to “short” over the coming days should prices continue to weaken, which could bring another wave of aggressive systematic selling to the oil market before the pressure subsides. As such, the Rabo strategist said “we are attributing a large portion of the recent fall in oil prices to the herd-like behavior of systematic funds rather than to any material shift in the fundamental outlook for oil markets.”

  Overnight, Goldman’s commodity head Jeffrey Currie expanded on this, including fundamental drivers and writing that for the past 9 months, commodities have been driven by strong macro trends, with significant cross-commodity correlations that pushed the entire complex higher through June. But more recent macro trends – reflation unwind, Delta variant concerns and caution over China – have generated headwinds, driving all markets lower. Furthermore, “key markets remain in deficit with inventories in oil and base metals continuing to fall sharply” and while “peak growth is clearly behind” the Goldman strategist again emphasizes that “commodities are driven by demand levels not growth rates “

  Currie then also observes the technicals, noting that “combined with low liquidity and fresh shorts from momentum investors the move has been swift and large.”

  Quantifying the technical downside further, Reuters’ John Kemp writes that hedge funds sold petroleum for the seventh time in nine weeks:  Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 40 million barrels in the six most important futures and options contracts in the week to Aug. 17, taking total sales to 253 million barrels since June 15. In the most recent week, funds were sellers across the board of Brent (-25 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (-9 million), U.S. gasoline (-3 million), U.S. diesel (-1 million) and European gas oil (-3 million).

  

  So what happens next? According to Goldman, while liquidity will likely remain low and the trend is not our friend right now, “the micro – steadily tightening commodity fundamentals – will trump these macro trends as we move towards autumn, pushing many markets like oil and base metals to new highs for this cycle.”

  Below we excerpt from his note which describes why in Currie’s view, the bullish micro will soon trump the bearish macro:

  Shifting gears to a micro driven bull market. Indeed, we see these macro trends drawing attention away from increasingly constructive micro data across the complex. On the back of this data we maintain our bullish view. Even those markets like steel and iron ore where micro fundamentals have weakened, there are very specific idiosyncratic reasons for the weakness. While the demand for oil has clearly weakened in Asia, it has weakened less than we expected. Further, both base metal and agriculture demand remains strong. Although US shale output has surprised to the upside recently, it is in line with our expectations while supply elsewhere for oil and all other markets remains structurally weak. As a result, key markets remain in deficit with inventories in oil and base metals continuing to fall sharply. While peak growth is clearly behind us we once again emphasize that commodities are driven by demand levels not growth rates and once we pass through this Delta variant – China cases are already declining – even oil demand levels should recover into year-end. Accordingly, we maintain our 4Q price targets — $80/bbl oil and $10,620/t copper and now forecast 17.1% returns for the S&P GSCI into year-end.

  Delta a transient event to oil demand, supply losses are persistent. Both oil prices and timespreads have sold off over the last three weeks as Delta concerns have darkened the outlook for demand; however, flat prices have overshot timespreads to the downside, suggesting an oversold market. So far the demand hit has remained within our conservative expectations in China (0.7 mb/d vs 1 mb/d base case), and overall demand continues to track near 98 mb/d as regional mobility indicators remain robust ex-APAC. The c.1.5mb/d deficit over the last month has been focused in EM, where storage levels ex-China are now precariously low, and we expect DM stocks will have to take the brunt of future drawdowns. Cash markets have weakened substantially, partly due to the post-Covid biannual storage play unwinds, nevertheless refining margins have remained supported and, in fact, a simple average of Brent and Dubai prompt timespreads remain near post-Covid highs. In addition, supply data points continue to disappoint versus our below-consensus expectations; the IEA has now revised down non-OPEC+ ex US/Canada supply by almost 1 mb/d each of the last two quarters, with growth increasingly back-loaded. The latest leg of the sell-off has been more parallel in nature, with the market reflecting anxiety over medium-term growth, China stimulus, and the possibility that US shale may be inflecting higher. Nevertheless, we expect Delta will prove to be a transient event, and that US producers will retain their newfound discipline, as the drivers of our bullish view shift from cyclical demand impulses to the structural binding constraints of under-investment in supply that were only accelerated by Covid-19.

  China steel weakness in Q3 is no canary in the coal mine. There is no doubt that China’s steel data has deteriorated since mid-year. After a strong H1 with apparent onshore steel demand rising nearly 6% y/y, the data since then has pointed to a 4% y/y decline so far in Q3. Coupled with a softening trend in early cycle construction activity, investors are concerned over rising headwinds to onshore demand. We think such concerns are over-emphasized. First, there have been transitory yet material distortions to steel apparent demand from mid-year. Flooding in several provinces alongside Delta lockdowns has exacerbated the seasonal slowdown in construction activity, which should reverse into Autumn. In addition, policy led steel supply cuts and resultant higher steel prices have contributed to downstream destocking which has, just as with copper in Q2 generated a negative adjustment to apparent demand. Second, it is also clear that Beijing is shifting to a more pro-growth policy setting which should generate a boost to infrastructure investment over the next 2-3 quarters, whilst also limiting further tightening measures on the property sector. In this context, we expect an improvement in China’s steel demand trends in Q4 (vs Q3) though the trend will be closer to flat y/y into next year. In this context we also see iron ore as oversold after a near 30% fall. A combination of improving steel demand, policy developments and a stabilizing physical market should act as upside catalysts for iron ore.

  Sustained deficits across base metals supports higher prices. There is no evidence that the current weaker micro trends in China’s ferrous sector are feeding into base metals markets. Onshore inventories across all the base metals have drawn over Q3 and for the majority are falling at the fastest pace seen year-to-date. In particular, we would note that onshore copper stocks (social and bonded) are now c.30% lower than their mid-Q2 peak, whilst high frequency indicators such as physical premiums and the import arb all point to a material tightening trend onshore. We think this reflects so far solid demand conditions through the summer period with evidence of y/y apparent demand growth rates inflecting higher after the negative downstream destocking distortions in Q2 (due to high prices). At the same time, supply side constraints via both scrap (Delta lockdowns impacting SE Asian processing flows) and power supply on smelting/refining (cutting refined output across a number of base metals) have supported the call on inventories. As demand improves seasonally from September, aided by reduced lockdown effects and some probable supportive policy adjustments, we expect continued tightness onshore into Q4 and support for higher import volumes of refined metal. This fundamental setup will offer support for a trend higher in both copper and aluminium prices in particular.

  Gold searching for a catalyst: Despite the recent spike in growth concerns, gold has largely remained range bound, closely correlated with the dollar. In our view this is because growth worries were actually quite contained and inflows into equity market funds have remained strong indicating that investors still prefer riskier assets. Inflation concerns were also moderate leaving little catalyst for gold investment demand. Nevertheless, at current prices gold is attractive to long term buyers looking to diversify their portfolio. Central Bank demand for gold has picked up materially with large purchases from Brazil, Thailand, India and Hungary. Moreover, unlike 2017-18 when Central Bank gold demand was coming primarily from countries with political tensions with the US (Russia, Turkey, China), the current spike in demand appears to be driven more by diversification motives. At the same time, Shanghai gold premium remains positive reflecting strong demand onshore and Indian imports have rebounded from their May-June slump. Overall our view remains that gold will continue to trade moderately higher on weaker dollar and recovery in EM demand. For gold to move materially higher though there has to be general risk off event which will trigger demand for defensive inflation hedges such as return of inflation worries.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 21:00

• Evergrande Crashes Again As The Bad News Just Won't Stop
  Evergrande Crashes Again As The Bad News Just Won’t Stop

  It’s just keeps going from bad to catastrophic for China’s largest and most indebted developer, Evergrande.

  Just days after Chinese authorities called for indebted (some would say insolvent) property giant Evergrande to resolve its debt risks during a rare meeting with executives Thursday and warning it to refrain from spreading “untrue” information, and not long after Evergrande – which has debt of more than $300 billion making it one of China’s most systematically important companies – pulled the short stick when Beijing decided to bail out China’s original bad bank Huarong but left Evergrande out in the cold, shares of the Chinese property giant sank to a fresh six-year low amid mounting concern that shareholders will bear the brunt of the developer’s liquidity crisis.

  Shares of Evergrande, which had lost 60% of their value coming into this week, crashed 12% on Monday in Hong Kong to close at the lowest since September 2015, while China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group – the company’s electric-vehicle unit – cratered 27%, the most since October 2015.  Completing the trifecta was the group’s property services unit, which plunged 9%.

  

  The catalyst for the latest blow to shareholder in the Shenzhen-based Evergrande, which is liquidating assets including stakes in units to avoid a cash crunch following a regulatory crackdown on leverage in the property industry,  was a report that Evergrande may sell its Hong Kong headquarters building at a loss.

  According to Bloomberg, the developer plans to sell the office tower to Yuexiu Property Co. for just HK$10.5 billion ($1.3 billion), a third less than the HK$15.6 billion it sought, Sing Tao Daily reported. It acquired the building for HK$12.5 billion in 2015. This means that the company’s last recourse at obtaining liquidity – via asset sales – may falter if its assets prove to have a far lower value than ascribed by the market.

  “Evergrande’s planned liquidity injection via asset sales could face challenges as potential buyers may negotiate lower prices,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Lisa Zhou wrote.

  While Evergrande stock was slammed, the bond market reacted more positively to the news of the building sale plans, which could help Evergrande meet upcoming debt repayments and/or provide greater recoveries for bondholders in a bankruptcy. Its note due 2022 climbed 0.6 cent on the dollar to 49.5 cents.

  

  As noted above, in a first for China, financial regulators last week issued a rare public rebuke of Evergrande, urging it to address its debt woes and refrain from spreading “untrue” information (leading to growing speculation that unlike Huarong, Beijing just make let Evergrande collapse sparking a bond market crisis). The company said it will do its best to resolve debt risks and keep stability in housing and financial markets.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 20:40

• Jack Ma "Behaved Too Much Like An American Entrepreneur" For The Chinese Communist Party's Liking
  Jack Ma “Behaved Too Much Like An American Entrepreneur” For The Chinese Communist Party’s Liking

  Given the recent decimation in U.S. listed China based stocks, it is becoming abundantly clear who is running the show in China.

  

  And no one person is coming to that realization quicker than Jack Ma. Once revered as a beacon of success and entrepreneurship out of China, Ma’s outspoken nature and boisterous antics saw him fall out of favor with the Chinese Communist Party – quickly.

  Such was the topic of a new, comprehensive Wall Street Journal report, which detailed the lesson Ma is now learning first hand: there is only one most powerful man in China. 

  How did Ma – who now is rarely, if ever, seen in public – fall out of favor with the CCP? He “behaved too much like an American entrepreneur,” the report says. 

  After Ma gave a speech in October criticizing Chinese regulators for “stifling financial innovation”, days later his $34 billion IPO of Ant Group had been blocked by the CCP. Since then, the company has had to restructure its business. 

  Within “hours” of his speech in October, state regulators began to compile reports on his companies and their operations.

  Additionally, when Ant filed its IPO, the Journal reported that some regulators were “caught off guard” at how big the company’s lending business had become. 

  Ant was also seen as “acting arrogantly” during its IPO roadshow, requiring people to make presentations if they wanted to invest, and limiting attendance for meetings with the company’s executives, the report said. 

  And despite the company being in a “silent period” prior to its IPO, Jack Ma instead “live-streamed a singalong last September with Faye Wong, a Chinese pop superstar”

  . 

  Now, Ma has been forced to hit the brakes: no more singalongs with Chinese pop stars, no more days dressing up as Michael Jackson. Instead of jetsetting globally and taking meetings, he has resorted to golfing and hiring a teacher to learn oil painting. 

  Ma also took to Beijing to try and smooth over his relationship with the government recently, but it was “too little, too late,” the Wall Street Journal reported. Ma had already “strayed too far out of his lane”. One of the world’s richest men was brought to heel in just under a year…

  “His ambition and outspoken nature, traits that drew a strong following among many in China, would no longer be tolerated in the tightened grip of Mr. Xi and the ruling party,” the report said.

  One Beijing official told the WSJ that Ma should have focused on “giving back to the Party instead of just focusing on his own interests.”

  Now, we’re seeing the same type of “reining in” with other businesses in China, including Didi, where the CCP has also recently initiated regulatory probes in hope of having the business operate closer to the state’s interests. 

  You can read the WSJ’s full report on Ma’s history with the CCP here. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 20:20

• Jen Psaki Claims There Are No Americans Stranded In Kabul During Testy Exchange With Reporter
  Jen Psaki Claims There Are No Americans Stranded In Kabul During Testy Exchange With Reporter

  For multiple days running every major outlet from The Washington Post to Associated Press to CNN to NBC have run stories describing the plight of stranded Americans who’ve desperately sought to make their way to Kabul’s international airport, where evacuation flights have steadily ramped up.

  So naturally the press pool was taken aback Monday when White House press secretary Jen Psaki claimed that no, there are not Americans stranded in Kabul – though clearly she was engaged as usual in stretching the very meaning of words to the point of laughably obvious spin and blatant falsehood…

  Psaki says “no Americans are stranded” in Afghanistan pic.twitter.com/llLYD2m7ds

  — The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) August 23, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Psaki was sparring with Fox’s Peter Doocy, not for the first time, in an exchange prompted by this question: “Does the president have a sense that most of the criticism is not of leaving Afghanistan? It’s the way that he has ordered it to happen by pulling the troops before getting these Americans who are now stranded. Does he have a sense of that?”

  A visibly angry Psaki called his assertion “irresponsible” and then stated bluntly:

  “I think it’s irresponsible to say Americans are stranded. They are not. We are committed to bringing Americans who want to come home, home.” 

  An incredulous Doocy followed by seeking to clarify that the official White House position is that “there are no Americans stranded”… to which Psaki doubled down, responding in the testy back-and-forth:

  “I’m just calling you out for saying we are stranding Americans in Afghanistan when we have been very clear that we are not leaving Americans who want to return home,” she said. “We are going to bring them home and I think that’s important for the American public to hear and understand.”

  The absurdity of Psaki’s statement given the constant flood of on the ground reporting detailing the plight of those US citizens stranded was enough for Psaki to lose even CNN’s support on this one.

  Indeed, Jake Tapper himself later exposed her statements as false…

  CNN’s Jake Tapper fact checks Psaki for saying Americans are “not” stranded in Afghanistan.

  “There are no doubt Americans who feel stranded in Afghanistan right now.” pic.twitter.com/MaaYR1gMiE

  — RNC Research (@RNCResearch) August 23, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Of course, for much of last week when the crisis was at its most intense, resulting in many Afghan civilian deaths in and around Hamid Karzai airport, Psaki was “out of the office” on vacation with her family, a vacation which was cut short as increasingly the MSM began turning on the Democratic president along with the public, slamming the unfolding debacle. 

  Jen Psaki: “The test of competence and of leadership is not about how you operate on your best day. It’s about how you operate when the chips are down, when things are difficult.”

  Biden was on vacation when Kabul fell. pic.twitter.com/KHlPtK5CXI

  — RNC Research (@RNCResearch) August 23, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Meanwhile, deflections continue across various departments within the administration…

  Biden admin officials haven’t given a public readout of the number of Americans evacuated, deflecting Qs on it at Pentagon and WH briefings today.

  h/t @DanLamothe for a helpful sidebar convo on this. https://t.co/JlFAUJxcRu

  — Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) August 23, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  This as according to MSNBC former DHS Secretary Jeh Johnson, who weighed in on the situation, the Kabul airport crisis is certainly “going to get a lot worse before it gets better.”

  “This is a country of 38 million people. We’ve got to deal with the American citizens, those who qualify for special immigrant visas but then those who also qualify for refugee status under our laws. And that population could snowball,” Johnson said in a Monday NBC interview.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 20:00

• As Pentagon's Afghan Debacle Unfolds, Russia Announces Joint War Drills With China & Iran In Gulf
  As Pentagon’s Afghan Debacle Unfolds, Russia Announces Joint War Drills With China & Iran In Gulf

  At a moment much of the world sees the US in ‘retreat’ from central Asia amid the ongoing Afghan evacuation debacle, it increasingly looks like Russia and China are stepping in as the next great power influencers in the region. The timing of a Russian announcement detailing upcoming joint military exercises appears geared toward sending just such a message.

  “Russia, Iran and China will hold joint maritime exercises in the Persian Gulf around late 2021 or early 2022, Russia’s ambassador to Tehran said, the RIA news agency reported on Monday,” according to Reuters.

  It’s been no secret that the Russian and Chinese militaries have grown closer over the past years, but rarer still are major drills involving the superpowers plus Iran, and centered in the Persian Gulf – site of recent soaring tensions which lately included Iranian commandos briefly seizing a foreign tanker, as well as the drone attack of the Israeli-managed ‘Mercer Street’ tanker off the coast of Oman on July 30.

  

  Russia’s ambassador to Tehran, Levan Jagaryan, confirmed the games in Monday statements, saying “Russian, Iranian and Chinese warships are taking part in it.” He added, “The main aim is to practice actions on ensuring international shipping safety, and combating sea pirates.”

  The Russian official also addressed the recent tanker incidents of this summer: “There are tensions indeed, especially following the tanker incidents in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, but I would not be dramatic and say that the situation is more acute now than during previous crises. Neither Iran nor its Arab neighbors are interested in further escalation.”

  The Islamic Republic has of late seen growing military ties with Russia, given also just last month Iran sent a pair of warships all the way to Saint Petersburg to participate in a major naval parade at the invitation of Russia.

  As the Iranian ships – known to also have elite IRGC Quds force commandoes on board – traveled up Africa’s West Coast, there was unfounded speculation in Western media that they were actually headed toward Venezuela. 

  Previously these three unlikely allies have held drills in the Indian Ocean, starting a couple years ago, which corresponded to all three countries coming under increasing Washington sanctions.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 19:40

• America's Latest COVID Wave Appears To Have Peaked As "Hot Spots" Turn The Corner
  America’s Latest COVID Wave Appears To Have Peaked As “Hot Spots” Turn The Corner

  The other day, we shared some official CDC numbers suggesting the COVID wave had likely peaked across the Northeast. Well, on Monday, CDC numbers cited by Bloomberg appeared to suggest that much of the US is seeing a similar pattern, as the latest delta-driven summer COVID wave finally begins to crest, just as President Biden is pushing third jabs and vaccine mandates across the US workforce (and, eventually, in schools).

  

  According to the official numbers, Arkansas and Missouri, where the delta surge began, have seen their seven-day average of cases is down 12% from the peak.

  And Florida and Louisiana, which have attracted the lion’s share of media attention lately, have also started to see similar declines.

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  That would seem to suggest that the delta wave truly has begun to wane, just as Dr. Scott Gottlieb and others expected it would.

  As Bloomberg points out in its story about the latest COVID trends in the US, one of the few immutable truths of the pandemic in North America (at least, so far) has been that viral surges haven’t lasted more than a few months. Afterwards, we see daily infections decline. Then again, there’s not exactly a ton of history to go on.

  Obviously, the best-case scenario would be seeing COVID cases decline even more during the coming month.

  The wave began in Arkansas and Missouri in early June and appears to be ending there two months laterr. Florida and Louisiana ignited about two weeks after the Ozarks, and they saw the surge last about 58 days, while in the rest of the country the wave turns 60 days old on Monday.

  Covidestim, a collection of projections that Dr. Gottlieb has long cited (it includes input from scientists from virtually every major US research institution). Numbers below 1 signal that the virus is contracting, not spreading and 22 states are already below that level, per Covidestim’s projections.

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  And once COVID peaks this time around, scientists believe the US should expect “a sustainable lull” in infections, especially as the population’s immunity levels continue to rise as more vaccinations (and more infections) inevitably increase the population’s immunity, even as herd immunity is believed to be beyond our reach now.

  However, while case numbers appear to be dropping, deaths will likely take longer to wane, especially after America’s ICUs have swelled against with terminally ill patients over the last few weeks.

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Right now, more people are dying in US hospitals from COVID than at any time in February, though President Biden has assured the population that only the unvaccinated get terminally ill (with a growing number of exceptions), and that the time has come for those waiting for the FDA’s final word should get off the fence and get their jabs.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 19:20

• SEC Gives Chinese Companies New Requirements For US IPO Disclosures
  SEC Gives Chinese Companies New Requirements For US IPO Disclosures

  While China is making it increasingly difficult for its companies to IPO in the US, the US has decided to make it that more challenging too.

  According to Reuters, the SEC has started to issue new disclosure requirements to Chinese companies seeking to go public in New York as part of a push to boost investor awareness of the risks involved.

  “Please describe how this type of corporate structure may affect investors and the value of their investment, including how and why the contractual arrangements may be less effective than direct ownership, and that the company may incur substantial costs to enforce the terms of the arrangements,” said one SEC letter seen by Reuters.

  While one wonders why it took 10 years for the SEC to wake up to the VIE risks that we warned about over a decade ago, it’s better late than never, and according to the report, some Chinese companies have now started to receive detailed instructions from the SEC about greater disclosure of their use of offshore vehicles known as variable interest entities (VIEs) for IPOs; implications for investors and the risk that Chinese authorities will interfere with company operations.

  The information crackdown follows after SEC Chair Gary Gensler asked for a “pause” in U.S. initial public offerings of Chinese companies and sought more transparency about these issues. Chinese listings in the United States came to a standstill after the SEC freeze, but not before hitting a record $12.8 billion in the first seven months of 2021, as Chinese companies capitalized on the soaring U.S. stock market.

  The SEC has also asked Chinese companies for a disclosure that “investors may never directly hold equity interests in the Chinese operating company,” according to the letter. Many Chinese VIEs are incorporated in tax havens such as the Cayman Islands. Gensler has said there are too many questions about how money flows through these entities.

  “Refrain from using terms such as ‘we’ or ‘our’ when describing activities or functions of a VIE,” the letter stated.

  The SEC has also provided disclosure requirements pertaining to the risk of Chinese regulators intervening with company data security policies, the sources said. Last month, just days after the blockbuster IPO of Didi Global, Chinese regulators banned the ride-sharing giant from signing up new users. This move was followed by crackdowns on technology and private education companies.

  The SEC has also asked some companies for more details in cases where they do not comply with the U.S. Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act on accounting disclosures to regulators. China has so far prevented companies from sharing the work of their auditors with the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board. Last month, the SEC removed the chairman of the board, which has been unsuccessful in its push to ensure independent auditing of U.S.-listed Chinese companies.

  The SEC’s move represents the latest salvo by U.S. regulators against corporate China, which for years has frustrated Wall Street with its reluctance to submit to U.S. auditing standards and improve the governance of companies held closely by founders.

  The SEC is also under pressure to finalize rules on the delisting of Chinese companies that do not comply with U.S. auditing requirements.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 19:00

• NY Still Needs To Come Clean On COVID-19 Nursing Home Deaths Scandal
  NY Still Needs To Come Clean On COVID-19 Nursing Home Deaths Scandal

  Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The government of the State of New York still has more explaining to do and heads that should roll regarding the decision to order that nursing homes accept patients with COVID-19 last year, according one of the state’s leading think tanks.

  

  The state government still hasn’t released data crucial to gauging the real magnitude of the scandal. It’s obvious, though, that the governor’s office and other officials are engaged in a coverup, according to the Empire Center for Public Policy’s health policy expert Bill Hammond. All of those responsible should resign, including the state’s health commissioner Howard Zucker, Hammond said.

  The scandal revolves around an order issued by Zucker on March 25, 2020, which stipulated that “no resident shall be denied re-admission or admission to the NH [nursing home] solely based on a confirmed or suspected diagnosis of COVID-19.”

  The order went as far as prohibiting staff from testing “medically stable” hospitalized clients for COVID-19 before admission.

  Under the policy, more than 9,000 COVID-19 positive patients were transferred to long-term care facilities, contributing to the nearly 16,000 deaths attributed to COVID in such facilities, according to a statistical analysis by the think tank. Exactly how much the policy contributed to the deaths is “very difficult to perfectly quantify,” according to Hammond, who is a senior research fellow at the Empire Center.

  The difficulty is compounded by the state’s delaying the publication of a large amount of data that it has collected on the issue. A coverup and dishonesty regarding the issue has been the most blatant part of the scandal, he claimed.

  Gov. Andrew Cuomo recently announced his resignation, on its face value due to a separate issue of inappropriate behavior toward women. But others involved in the coverup are still holding onto their chairs, Hammond pointed out.

  He called on the incoming Gov. Kathy Hochul to “fire the falsifiers,” in a recent op-ed in the New York Daily News.

  Origins

  

  In some regards, Hammond said, he is willing to give the Cuomo administration “the benefit of the doubt,” he told The Epoch Times.

  In mid-March, 2020, COVID-19 was quickly spreading in the city and hospitalizations multiplied from about 300 to more than 3,000 in less than two weeks. Expert projections were showing hospitalizations would reach as high as 110,000 in the state, about twice its hospital capacity.

  “It was reasonable for him to be really concerned about that,” Hammond said.

  Under these circumstances, there was a danger that elderly patients who were already recovering from COVID-19, but could still be infections, would be occupying hospital beds for weeks as long-term care facilities would refuse to accept them. If nursing homes were required to accept them, despite the obvious risks involved, it would have freed up some hospital capacity.

  Hammond was willing to cut the Cuomo administration some slack for trying to pick what it could have seen as the lesser of two evils.

  There are many things, however, for which the government should be faulted, he said.

  Poorly Worded

  Cuomo said the policy was based on guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The guidance said that nursing homes can accept recovering COVID-19 patients, but only if they can adhere to the CDC’s “Transmission-Based Precautions” that outlined considerations for the safety of other residents.

  The guidance recommended the homes set up an isolated area where the potentially infectious residents could quarantine for 14 days. The state directive, on the other hand, didn’t include these precautions. It bluntly said nursing homes “must comply with the expedited receipt of residents returning from hospitals.”

  Cuomo later argued that nursing homes always had the option, under state law, to refuse any patient they couldn’t properly care for. But, as Hammond pointed out, the state directive came in a state of emergency when the government is authorized to suspend certain laws and regulations.

  “Since the March 25 directive invoked the emergency and used prescriptive language, nursing home officials might reasonably have assumed that it was meant to supersede normal regulations,” Hammond said in his Aug. 17 report on the issue.

  No Outreach

  

  Another problem was that nursing homes weren’t consulted on the state directive, Hammond said. If there was an outreach effort, the directive could have been better worded, nursing homes could have been clearer on what they could and couldn’t do, and the state could have learned crucial information, such as which homes were actually equipped to accept potentially infectious patients.

  Late Reevaluation

  The state directive is technically still in effect, but in practice, it was discontinued after six weeks when another directive that banned hospitals from sending COVID-19 patients to nursing homes was issued.

  Six weeks, however, was too long given the facts on the ground at the time, according to Hammond.

  After just one week, hospitalization data had already indicated that the hospitalization projections were grossly off-mark. One of the most prominent state-by-state projection models came from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

  On April 1, 2020, the model was updated with additional data, but it was clear that it had little to no correspondence with the facts on the ground. The projections warned that New York would need 41,000 to 58,000 hospital beds for COVID-19 patients by April 1, 2020. But even by April 3, 2020, the state had less than 16,000 hospitalized. The hospitalizations peaked before mid-April, below 19,000, and then dropped about as quickly as they rose.

  One Size Didn’t Fit All

  

  While some hospitals in the New York City area got overloaded during the pandemic peak, that was not the case further upstate. The impact of COVID-19 was much milder in those small-town and rural areas, but the local nursing homes were still required to accept COVID-19 patients. It is in these areas where Empire Center’s statistical analysis showed the most severe impact of the state directive.

  The admission of every 10 COVID-19-positive patients resulted in about six additional COVID-19 related deaths, the data indicated.

  “In the upstate region, facilities that admitted at least one positive patient during this period accounted for 82 percent of coronavirus deaths among nursing home residents, even though they had only 32 percent of the residents,” the analysis stated.

  The analysis could benefit from additional data to make its conclusions broader and more robust. But the state hasn’t been forthcoming with this data. This alludes to a major problem that Hammond pointed out—one that’s as damning as it is indisputable, he said.

  Coverup

  As it became clear how COVID-19 was having a devastating impact on nursing home clients, the state directive started to draw increasing scrutiny. In response, the governor and many in his administration engaged in blatant dishonestly, Hammond documented in this report.

  “They’ve done nothing but spin from the very beginning,” he said.

  The officials tried to explain the directive away by implying that it mainly pertained to COVID-19 patients who were sent to a hospital and then simply returned back, Hammond’s report said. In fact, more than two thirds of the nursing home COVID-19 patient admissions were not prior residents, he found from data released thanks to a court order stemming from the Empire Center’s freedom of information lawsuit.

  Another move came in early May when the state started to omit from nursing home reports any COVID-19 deaths that didn’t occur in the home itself, such as those that took place after the patient was transferred to a hospital. The state acknowledged this change in its reporting in a footnote, but the fact remained that a portion of the deaths was thus hidden.

  “The result was to make New York’s nursing home death toll look roughly one-third lower than it actually was,” the report stated.

  In an unusual move, the state also removed the March 25 directive from its website sometime in early May. Media noticed the edit several weeks later.

  Probably the most outrageous part of the cover up came in July, 2020, when the state health department released a report saying the March 25 directive was “not a factor in nursing home fatalities.” Instead, it blamed staff members for unwittingly bringing the virus in early in the pandemic.

  

  “Although presented in the form of a scientific analysis, the [state health department] report was replete with falsehoods, omissions, errors and questionable analyses that discredited its central findings. Some of its flaws were evident right away; others came to light later,” Hammond’s report said.

  For starters, the government’s report omitted the resident deaths that occurred outside of the homes.

  Most importantly, its conclusion was a non-sequitur, according to Hammond.

  The report correctly pointed out that nursing home deaths peaked in early April, too early for the March 25 directive to act as the driving factor. But that hardly rules out that transfers from hospitals played a role, Hammond argued.

  “Residents kept dying by the hundreds per day for weeks after the peak, and certainly some of those victims could have caught the virus from an infected patient arriving from a hospital,” he said.

  It was later reported that, although prepared by the health department, the state report had been heavily edited by Cuomo’s aides.

  When various groups started to demand data on the nursing home deaths, the government stonewalled them, Hammond said.

  “The governor and other officials consistently deflected requests for that data from reporters, watchdog groups, industry associations, and even members of the Legislature,” the report said.

  Zucker repeatedly claimed he couldn’t provide the numbers because he needed to make sure they were “absolutely accurate.”

  Reportedly, a Cuomo aide completed an audit of nursing home deaths in late August, but the administration withheld the data until February, after the Empire Center won a court order forcing its release.

  Data accuracy isn’t a grounds for blocking Freedom of Information (FOIL) requests to begin with, Hammond noted.

  “No large-scale data-gathering system is error-free. An accuracy-based exception to FOIL would be license to block virtually any request for records,” he said in the report.

  The state’s “delaying tactics” clearly violated the law, he said.

  New York State Supreme Court Justice Kimberly O’Connor eventually agreed.

  That order, however, only pertained to data regarding deaths. To assess more accurately how much of an impact the March 25 directive had, it would also be necessary to analyze data on infections in nursing homes—both those determined by a test as well as those suspected based on COVID-19-like symptoms.

  The Empire Center filed dozens of requests for this and other data sets, but the state responded by claiming it’s still searching for the data. This is the same delay tactic used for the death data, Hammond said.

  Fallout

  Hammond didn’t try to determine criminal culpability by state officials. For that, he looks to the investigation led by the U.S. Attorney’s office in Brooklyn. He has called for an investigation into the state’s preparedness for health emergencies and the pandemic response in general.

  “The state was caught with its pants down when the pandemic arrived. That’s partly on the governor, the fact that he was not better prepared for what happened,” he said.

  Notably, the state should have had contingencies in place for the eventuality that hospitals would get overrun due to an infectious disease outbreak, he said.

  Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 18:40

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• What Chip Shortage: Inventory At Leading Chipmakers Hits Record $65 Billion
  What Chip Shortage: Inventory At Leading Chipmakers Hits Record $65 Billion

  Something odd emerged as automaker after automaker – most notably Toyota last week – announced they would throttle auto production in coming months due to a historic chip shortage: according to calculations from Financial Times parent, Nikkei, total inventory at the world’s nine leading chipmakers hit a record high of $64.7 billion as of the end of June as “companies quickly moved to ramp up production to alleviate a protracted shortage that has disrupted supply chains in the auto industry and beyond.”

  When demand for chips used in high-performance computers and automobiles outpaced projections due to the coronavirus pandemic which forced many chipmakers to suspend production in Southeast Asia, Taiwan Semiconductor – the world’s largest chipmaker – optimized production lines in January-June, expanding production of automotive chips during the period by 30% from a year earlier.

  Others followed, and according to Nikkei, total inventory at TSMC, Intel, Samsung Electronics, Micron Technology, SK Hynix, Western Digital, Texas Instruments, Infineon Technologies and STMicroelectronics are now at historic highs, as chipmakers expand their stockpile of raw materials to drive production. The share of raw materials in total inventory has steadily been increasing since March 2019 at the seven companies that provide comparable data, and topped 24% as of the end of March.

  At the same time, finished chips are flying off the shelves: while turnover usually falls when total inventory increases, due to the backlog of persistent demand, sales have been growing faster than inventory, and the April-June quarter saw a turnover rate of 7.8, the highest in 18 months.

  Still, as the Japanese publication notes, there is concern that growing inventories are not necessarily an accurate reflection of actual chip demand. For example, many automakers are now shifting away from the just-in-time strategy — or holding as little parts inventory for as short a time as possible — to holding spare inventory in case of supply chain disruptions.

  “We may need to change the way we approach inventory, like by cultivating more chip suppliers,” Honda Motor Executive Vice President Seiji Kuraishi said

  Electronic equipment maker Fujitsu General had also increased its inventory of chips and other components and materials by about 20% in three months as of the end of June. “We are securing more components even if it means a larger inventory in case the semiconductor shortage drags on,” said Vice President Hiroshi Niwayama.

  Of course, while demand is solid there is little risk of excess inventory; but chipmakers worry that these developments could lead to a glut down the line.

  “We have an order book that represents approximately two years of revenue,” said Helmut Gassel, chief marketing officer at Infineon Technologies. “We expect there to be some double ordering, which is, as always, impossible to quantify.”

  But signs of a slowdown are already emerging in memory chips, where three key producers including Micron Technology and SK Hynix reported a steady decline in inventory. The bulk price of 4GB DDRs, which serve as a benchmark for dynamic random-access memory used in computers, roughly stayed flat for the second straight month in July at around $3.20 per chip. Global shipments of smartphones, which require memory chips, also fell markedly in April-June.

  At the start of August, the SOX semi index slumped after Morgan Stanley issued a rare downgrade of core semiconductor names including SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron, warning that “winter is coming” for the DRAM sector, which is expected to peak in Q4 2021.

  

  “The supply of memory chips will likely surpass demand in the first half of 2022, bringing prices down,” said Akira Minamikawa at research company Omdia, echoing Morgan Stanley’s concerns.

  As a result, Samsung and Micron’s stock prices plunged this month as investors brace for an eventual correction in the chip market.

  Still, leading chipmakers continue to rake in big bucks. The top 10 players by market capitalization booked $276 million in net profit in April-June, an increase of about 60% on the year and their sixth straight quarter of gains. They are also pursuing major expansions, largely in logic chips. TSMC plans to make $100 billion in capital investments over three years, while Intel has announced plans for a new $20 billion plant in Arizona.

  But the chip industry has experienced major fluctuations in the past, saddling manufacturers with excess capacity built up during boom years once the market cools down. Expansions currently underway will go online in two to three years, meaning they may end up dragging companies down.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 02:45

• Greece Erects Steel Wall Along Turkish Border Over Afghan Migration Fears
  Greece Erects Steel Wall Along Turkish Border Over Afghan Migration Fears

  Authored by Lorenz Duschamps via The Epoch Times,

  Greece has completed the construction of a 25-mile (40-km) long steel wall and a new surveillance system along the border with Turkey amid concerns about a possible surge of illegal immigrants trying to reach Europe following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan this month.

  

  “Our borders remain secure and inviolable. The new boundary wall has been completed and is actively guarded,” Greece’s Citizens’ Protection Minister Michalis Chrisochoidis told reporters during a press briefing while visiting the site in the region of Evros on Friday.

  “We cannot wait passively to see the impact of the Afghan crisis,” he added.

  “The high-tech, automated monitoring system is active. Possible refugee flows from Afghanistan will be stopped.”

  About 8 miles of the steel wall has been there for some time along the Evros river, and with the latest extension, the wall is now 25 miles long and 19.7 feet (6 meters) high.

  

  A policeman patrols alongside a steel border wall at Evros river, near the village of Poros, at the Greek-Turkish border on May 21, 2021. (Giannis Papanikos/AP Photo)

  Greece began bolstering its border defense in recent months and authorities at the border have been warned about a possible new wave of illegal immigrants, likely coming from Afghanistan after the Taliban’s sweeping advance this month, sparking fears in Europe about a new migration crisis.

  The recent events and the seizure of power by Taliban insurgents in the war-torn nation have fuelled the European Union to resist a possible repeat of the 2015 refugee crisis when nearly 1 million people fleeing the Middle East and beyond crossed into Greece from Turkey before traveling north to wealthier states.

  

  A police car patrols alongside a steel wall at Evros river, near the village of Poros, at the Greek-Turkish border, Greece, on May 21, 2021. (Giannis Papanikos/AP Photo)

  Greece is insisting it will not allow a repetition of the 2015 crisis. Border forces are warned to make sure the country does not become Europe’s gateway again.

  Neighboring Turkey has also expressed concerns over a potential wave of illegal immigrants coming from Afghanistan.

  Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on nations in Europe on Thursday to shoulder the responsibility for people fleeing Taliban forces, warning that Turkey will not become Europe’s “refugee warehouse.”

  

  Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan listens during the opening session of the virtual global Leaders Summit on Climate, as he sits in his office in Ankara, Turkey, on April 22, 2021. (Mustafa Kamaci/Turkish Presidency via AP)

  “We need to remind our European friends of this fact: Europe—which has become the center of attraction for millions of people—cannot stay out of [the refugee] problem by harshly sealing its borders to protect the safety and wellbeing of its citizens,” Erdogan said.

  “Turkey has no duty, responsibility, or obligation to be Europe’s refugee warehouse,” he added.

  The latest issue on immigration that is possibly going to impact both nations will become “a serious challenge for everyone,” Erdogan told Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in a telephone conversation on Friday. Erdogan said it has also begun reinforcing its border with Iran.

  The government in Greece said last week they are not going to allow illegal immigrants seeking asylum to cross into Europe and will turn refugees back.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 02:00

• The Fentanyl Flood Into The US: Why Can't We Make It Stop?
  The Fentanyl Flood Into The US: Why Can’t We Make It Stop?

  Authored by Diane Dimond via The Epoch Times,

  About 11 times every hour, about 250 times a day, an American citizen dies of a drug overdose. The most frequent culprit is fentanyl. The most popular mode of delivery is fentanyl-laced heroin, fentanyl mixed with cocaine, or illegally produced OxyContin pain pills containing fentanyl. And it’s not just hardcore addicts who are dying.

  

  The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports overdose deaths skyrocketed to a mind-boggling 93,000 last year, a 29 percent increase over the previous year. The death rate is now so frightening a bipartisan group, called Families Against Fentanyl, asked the president to declare the synthetic opioid an official weapon of mass destruction.

  Think about this. Ninety-three thousand Americans dead in one year. That’s more than we lost during the entire Vietnam War. That’s more than the population of Santa Fe, New Mexico; Palo Alto, California; or St. Joseph, Missouri.

  So, where is all this fentanyl coming from, why does it keep pouring into this country year after year and why has the U.S. government been unable to stop it?

  The short answer to the first question is China, the same country that unleashed the COVID-19 virus upon the world.

  But China is only a cog, albeit the largest one, in a far-flung supply network that seems impossible to disrupt. Laboratories in China produce fentanyl and ship the man-made poison to the United States via international mail. Our postal system tries to control the flow, but it’s an impossible task. Also, Chinese drug lords send large amounts of fentanyl to associates in Mexico and, to a lesser degree, Canada. Operatives then move the deadly product across the U.S.-Mexico border and, less frequently, across our northern border.

  And now, according to a declassified government report, India is getting in on this most profitable business. Labs there produce fentanyl and ship it directly to both China and Mexico. Naturally, much of it ends up in U.S. cities and towns because, sadly, that’s where the demand is.

  It’s clear China is the biggest player here. For years, President Xi Jinping has given us lip service on his willingness to shut down his country’s illegal fentanyl factories. In 2017, the United States began to indict major Chinese manufacturers, but there is no indication the Chinese government ever arrested any of them.

  It is also clear that the unprotected route through Mexico is a major contributor to the fentanyl flood into the United States. As U.S. Border Patrol agents are overwhelmed dealing with immigrants—more than 212,000 of them in July—drug mules find plenty of opportunity to slip through unpatrolled and unfenced border areas.

  Our immigration policy, coupled with the almost unfettered flow of fentanyl, has turned Mexican drug lords into billionaires, if they weren’t already. Not only do the cartels make boatloads of money selling the opioid on American streets, but they also charge immigrants thousands of dollars in exchange for guaranteed safe passage to the U.S. border. Once here, many immigrants are intimidated into working the drug trade. A recent report from Customs and Border Patrol estimated that the cartel’s human traffickers made some $411 million just during the month of February. That’s more than $14 million a day.

  So, wondering what can be done to stop the ever-increasing overdose death rate caused by fentanyl? The answers seem clear. First, clamp down on China with more trade sanctions. And, how about a strict embargo on all mail and packages from China (or Hong Kong) coming into the United States? That maneuver would cripple the Chinese economy and surely make Xi more cooperative in the fentanyl fight.

  Next, seal our borders, especially the southern border with Mexico. Finish the damn wall or recruit legions more Border Patrol agents. It is only logical that if drug mules cannot get into the United States, then neither can their lethal cargo. Something must be done because the status quo is killing our children. It is not acceptable.

  This is not about politics, or who started or stopped building the border wall. Please, let’s get past that paralyzing mindset. This is about losing city-sized populations every single year. Doesn’t that warrant an immediate and forceful reaction?

  The government’s primary role is to protect its citizens. The fentanyl death rate is an obvious tragedy in need of immediate attention.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/23/2021 – 00:00

• Biden Administration Bans Russian-Made Ammo Amid Shortage 
  Biden Administration Bans Russian-Made Ammo Amid Shortage 

  On Friday, the U.S. Department of State announced it would stop accepting new and pending permits for Russian firearms and ammunition importation for 12 months as part of a new round of sanctions against Moscow over the 2020 poisoning of Russian Dissident Aleksey Navalny. 

  The Department of State released the new sanctions under the Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991 (the CBW Act), which reads: 

  Restrictions on the permanent imports of certain Russian firearms. New and pending permit applications for the permanent importation of firearms and ammunition manufactured or located in Russia will be subject to a policy of denial.

  Shipments of firearms and ammunition from Russia that have already been approved will enter the U.S. But Russian firms who want to expand their footprint at U.S. gun stores won’t be able to for a 12-month period. The move could adversely impact gun and ammo prices.

  The Firearms Regulatory Accountability Coalition questioned the State Department’s rationale behind the ban. The group suspects the move is part of a plan by the Biden administration to tighten firearm supply and increase ammunition prices to make it unaffordable – a highly complex way to squeeze gun-loving Americans. 

  “The law in question was intended—and rightfully so—to hold the Russian government accountable,” the group told The Reload. “With this rule, however, the State Department appears to be using the attack on Mr. Navalny and this law primarily to further the current administration’s campaign to undermine the firearms industry and American consumers’ access to firearms and ammunition.”

  The ban of new and pending permits to import Russian-made ammo and guns couldn’t have come at the worst time as the U.S. is facing an ammo shortage. 

  Over the last 24 hours, gun-loving Americans in almost every state are panic searching “Russian ammo ban” and are concerned about AK-47 ammo chambered in 7.62×39mm. 

  

  Say goodbye to cheap 7.62×39mm ammo from Russia? 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/22/2021 – 23:30

• Ron Paul: The Secret Ronald Reagan Told Me About Gold And Great Nations
  Ron Paul: The Secret Ronald Reagan Told Me About Gold And Great Nations

  Authored by Ron Paul via The Mises Institute,

  Last week [August 15] marked 50 years since President Richard Nixon closed the “gold window,” ending the ability of foreign governments to exchange United States dollars for gold. Nixon’s action severed the last link between the dollar and gold, giving the U.S. a fiat currency.

  America’s experiment with fiat has led to an explosion of consumer, business, and—especially—government debt. It has also caused increasing economic inequality, a boom-bubble-bust business cycle, and a continued erosion of the dollar’s value.

  Nixon’s closure of the gold window motivated me to run for office. Having read the works of the leading Austrian economists, such as Ludwig von Mises and Murray Rothbard, I understood the dangers of abandoning gold for a fiat currency and wanted a platform to spread these ideas.

  When I first entered public life, support for restoring a gold standard, much less abolishing the Fed, was limited to so-called “gold bugs” and the then tiny libertarian movement. Even many economists who normally supported free markets believed the fiat system could be made to work if the Federal Reserve were forced to follow rules.

  These rules were supposed to provide the Fed with clear guidance as to when to increase or decrease the money supply. This may sound good in theory, but a “rules-based monetary system” still allows the Federal Reserve to manipulate interest rates, which are the price of money, causing artificial booms and very real busts.

  The stagflation of the Carter era did increase interest in monetary policy. The rise of the “supply-siders,” who supported a limited role for gold, helped increase interest in the issue.

  

  Ronald Reagan once told me that no nation has abandoned gold and remained great. As president, he supported the creation of the Gold Commission. However, he did not stop the establishment from stacking the commission with defenders of the monetary status quo.

  The commission’s two pro-gold members, Lewis Lehrman and myself, produced a minority report, written with the aid of Murray Rothbard, making the case for a gold standard. The report was published as The Case for Gold. It can be downloaded at Mises.org.

  By the mid-1980s, any interest among the political and financial elites in questioning the Fed’s power had disappeared. This was due to acceptance of the myth that Paul Volcker tamed inflation. In the 1990s, a virtual cult of personality arose around the “Maestro” Alan Greenspan, who once told me that the Fed had learned how to “replicate” the results of a gold-backed currency.

  While my warnings that the Fed was leading the American economy over the cliff were dismissed in Washington, they found a receptive audience outside the Beltway. The response to my 2008 presidential campaign led to a birth of a new liberty movement that put monetary policy front and center.

  The 2008 meltdown, big bank bailouts, and the Fed’s subsequent failure to reignite the economy despite unprecedented money creation fueled the growth of the new movement. My Campaign for Liberty organization mobilized the new liberty movement to make Audit the Fed a major issue in Congress.

  Fifty years after Nixon closed the gold window, prices are heading toward 1970s-era increases.

  Yet the Fed cannot increase interest rates as long as the politicians keep creating billions of new debts.

  It is clear that America is heading toward another Federal Reserve–created economic crisis. The good news is the impending crisis gives us an opportunity to spread our message, grow our movement, and finally force Congress to audit and end the Fed.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/22/2021 – 23:00

• Australian Town Council Sparks Outrage After Killing Rescue Dogs To Prevent Covid Spread
  Australian Town Council Sparks Outrage After Killing Rescue Dogs To Prevent Covid Spread

  Outrage was sparked after an Australian town council shot dead several rescue dogs in order to prevent volunteers from breaking quarantine to pick them up last week in the city of Cobar, NSW, according to the Sydney Morning Herald, citing the Office of Local Government.

  

  “OLG has been informed that the council decided to take this course of action to protect its employees and community, including vulnerable Aboriginal populations, from the risk of COVID-19 transmission,” said a spokesman for the government agency.

  According to the report, the shelter volunteers had Covid-safe measures prepared to handle the dogs – one of which was a new mother.

  “We are deeply distressed and completely appalled by this callous dog shooting and we totally reject the council’s unacceptable justifications that this killing was apparently undertaken as part of a COVID- safe plan,” Animal Liberation regional campaign manager Lisa Ryan told the Herald.

  The regime in Australia 🇦🇺 is murdering dogs now as their fascist crackdown and sociopathy continues unabated. Time for 🇺🇸 to send in troops.

  — Cernovich (@Cernovich) August 22, 2021

  NSW, Australia’s most populous state, re-entered a strict lockdown two weeks ago, as officials deployed the military and threatened to go “door-to-door” to enforce mandatory COVID restrictions and tests on Australians, according to Victoria Premier, Daniel Andrews.

  Here it is ⬇️ threats to the unvaccinated pic.twitter.com/DXFOb4TW6e

  — ValGlass2.0 (@AussieVal10) August 13, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯

  Fresh hell coming to your street – threats ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/AjSCJzh8VT

  — ValGlass2.0 (@AussieVal10) August 13, 2021

  Meanwhile in the land of dog murder, one Australian was involuntarily admitted to a mental institution for refusing the jab. 

  Indeed, it seems the inmates are running the asylum in the land down under.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/22/2021 – 22:30

• COVID-19 Cases Rising Within The Homeless Population
  COVID-19 Cases Rising Within The Homeless Population

  Authored by Vanessa Serna via The Epoch Times,

  As California witnesses a surge in CCP virus cases, homeless individuals are among the most vulnerable, officials say.

  “People experiencing homelessness are at high risk of severe COVID-19 disease due to underlying health conditions, age, or both,” Los Angeles County Director of Public Health Barbara Ferrer said in an Aug. 18 statement.

  “As we partner with others to reach people experiencing homelessness that are not yet vaccinated, layering protection at programs serving this population is critical.”

  The number of CCP virus cases among the homeless has increased in the past month as of Aug. 18, according to the Los Angeles County of Public Health. This past week alone, homeless individuals accounted for 185 new cases. In total, nearly 8,000 unhoused people have tested positive in Los Angeles County, with 218 recorded deaths.

  

  CCP virus cases in homeless individuals peaked back in December when 638 cases were recorded. Since then, case numbers have been on the decline prior to recently increasing.

  With the CCP virus vaccines becoming more accessible, over 51,322 doses have been administered to homeless individuals in the county, with over 25,000 being fully vaccinated.

  Similarly in Orange County, Douglas Becht, director of operations at the Orange County Health Care Agency, told The Epoch Times the county is working collaboratively with health centers and 35 emergency shelters to educate and administer vaccines to homeless individuals.

  As of Aug. 19, over 1,500 doses of the CCP virus vaccine have been administered to homeless individuals in Orange County. While it is unclear how many homeless have become ill with the virus, 14 deaths have been reported.

  The data provided by Los Angeles and Orange counties comes a day after federal health officials recommended booster shots for CCP virus-vaccinated citizens.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/22/2021 – 22:00

• Beijing Considers Making US Listed Companies Hand Over Data Control To Chinese State Firms
  Beijing Considers Making US Listed Companies Hand Over Data Control To Chinese State Firms

  On Friday, Chinese tech stocks swooned for the n^th time, sending the Hang Seng index into bear market territory, after Beijing approved a new privacy law to prevent data collection by domestic technology companies. As we reported then, China’s most powerful legislative body, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, passed the Personal Information Protection Law that will go into effect on Nov.1.  The move sent tech stocks plunging and leaving investors bewildered over the intensity of Beijing’s regulatory crackdown that has slammed countless sectors. 

  It turns out that when it comes to control over data, Beijing is nowhere near done and late on Friday Reuters reported that as part of Beijing’s unprecedented scrutiny of private sector firms, Chinese regulators are considering pressing data-rich companies “to hand over management and supervision of their data to third-party firms” if they want to list in the U.S.

  The regulators believe bringing in third-party information security firms – ideally state-backed – to manage and monitor IPO hopefuls’ data could effectively limit their ability to transfer Chinese onshore data overseas. That, Reuters notes, would help ease Beijing’s growing concerns that “a foreign listing might force such Chinese companies to hand over some of their data to foreign entities and undermine national security” a increasingly sensitive topic for public Chinese firms such as Didi whose stock price plunged amid an ongoing feud with Beijing over who gets to control the company’s data trove.

  The plan is one of several proposals under consideration by Chinese regulators as Beijing has tightened its grip on the country’s internet platforms in recent months, including looking to sharpen scrutiny of overseas listings.

  The crackdown, which has smashed stocks and badly dented investor sentiment, in the process hammering US hedge funds who as we noted on Friday have been especially exposed to Chinese stocks…

  

  … has targeted unfair competition and internet companies’ handling of an enormous cache of consumer data, after years of a more laissez-faire approach. A final decision on the IPO-bound companies’ data handover plan is yet to be made, said the Reuters  sources.

  The regulatory officials have discussed the plan with capital market participants, said one of the sources, as part of moves to strengthen supervision of all Chinese firms listed offshore.

  IPO advisers are hopeful a formal framework on the data handover issue could be delivered in September, said the source.

  Chinese regulators have recently put companies’ overseas listing plans, particularly in the United States, on hold pending new rules on data security. Last month, the CAC proposed draft rules calling for companies with over 1 million users to undergo security reviews before listing overseas .

  With US policymakers already worried that Chinese firms are flouting U.S. rules requiring public companies to disclose a range of potential risks to their financial performance, Beijing’s data handover plan sparked renewed calls for caution.

  “This is one more piece of evidence that private companies do not actually exist in the People’s Republic of China – they are all under the control of the Chinese Communist Party,” U.S. Representative Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs committee, said in a statement.

  “Any company that does business in the PRC must answer to the CCP, threatening investor transparency, consumer privacy, and national security,” he added, according to Reuters.

  Senator Bill Hagerty, who sits on the Senate Banking Committee, echoed this statement to Reuters: “The Biden Administration and the SEC must continue to take action to ensure that Americans are aware of all the risks of investing in companies that are in anyway subjected to the Chinese Communist Party’s rule, including the CCP’s management of key data.”

  The plans to step up supervision of Chinese companies going public overseas came days after Beijing launched a cybersecurity investigation into ride-hailing giant Didi Global on the heels of its $4.4 billion U.S. stock market listing. Didi is now in talks with state-owned Westone Information Industry Inc to handle its data management and monitoring activities, Reuters reported earlier this month. The proposed restrictions on Didi could become a possible template for other data-rich Chinese companies that look to go public in the United States.

  As noted above, Beijing’s increasing sensitivity about the collection and usage of onshore data comes as the top legislative body on Friday passed a new law designed to protect online user data privacy. It will implement the policy starting on Nov. 1. In September, China is also set to implement its Data Security Law, which requires companies that process “critical data” to conduct risk assessments and submit reports to authorities.

  The government has in recent years increasingly seen user data as key to the country’s financial and social stability and pushed tech giants including Ant Group, Tencent and JD.com to share consumer loan data to prevent excess borrowing and fraud, Reuters reported in January. read more Ant is also in the process of spinning off its consumer-credit data operations, as part of the business revamp to revive its public share sale.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/22/2021 – 21:30

• Stranded Afghans Delete Social Media As Taliban Seizes US Surveillance Equipment
  Stranded Afghans Delete Social Media As Taliban Seizes US Surveillance Equipment

  Authored by Ken Silva via The Epoch Times,

  Concerned that they could be targeted by Taliban online surveillance operations, U.S. Afghan allies are reportedly scrambling to delete their social media profiles in droves. Meanwhile, privacy advocates are raising the concern that the U.S. data program possibly inherited by the Taliban could lead to blowback threatening civil liberties in America.

  

  The New York-based group Human Rights First announced on Aug. 16 that Taliban fighters captured U.S. surveillance tools. These devices, known as Handheld Interagency Identity Detection Equipment (HIIDE), were used by soldiers to scan the biometrics of Afghans to match fingerprints on improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and for other such forensic investigations.

  “We understand that the Taliban is now likely to have access to various biometric databases and equipment in Afghanistan, including some left behind by coalition military forces,” the human rights group said.

  “This technology is likely to include access to a database with fingerprints and iris scans, and include facial recognition technology.”

  The Human Rights First advisory included multilingual guides for Afghan allies on protecting their digital identities.

  The warning corresponds with numerous reports of Afghans deleting their social media profiles in an attempt to protect their privacy from the Taliban. USAID reportedly circulated emails to its partners in Afghanistan to “remove photos and information that could make individuals or groups vulnerable.”

  Former U.S. Army prosecutor John Maher told The Epoch Times that this specific warning about the Taliban taking HIIDE equipment is probably overblown.

  Maher, who worked with the Afghan biometrics program during his time as program manager of the Justice Center in Parwan, said that HIIDE devices are password-protected. And after a soldier uses the device and uploads the data at the central database, protocol says to wipe the device clean, said Maher.

  “Even if [Taliban] can get into that device, they’ll get an unclassified list of their own people,” added Maher, who has also used Afghan biometric evidence in the successful—though controversial—campaign to have Donald Trump pardon a soldier convicted of killing civilians.

  On the wider issue of Taliban conducting surveillance operations to locate their enemies, Maher said he thinks they would have to be aided by more sophisticated governments such as China or Iran.

  “I’m skeptical that Taliban are that sophisticated,” said Maher, who also told The Epoch Times that he’s been helping Afghan allies leave the country via his U.S.-Afghan firm Misbah Maher Consultancy.

  While the HIIDE devices may not pose a risk to Afghans, Taliban fighters have previously used biometric systems to target their enemies. In 2016, for instance, they reportedly used a government database to check whether bus passengers were security force members, according to a 2016 TOLOnews report.

  American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Klon Kitchen said the security risks posed by the abandoned U.S. surveillance equipment is just one of the many consequences of a sloppy U.S. withdrawal.

  A proper withdrawal would have entailed deleting all digital files in U.S. facilities and servers in Afghanistan, destroying all computers and other physical equipment, and working with tech companies and social media platforms to protect Afghan identities, Klon said in his weekly newsletter.

  Meanwhile, the biometric information collected on tens of millions of Afghans remains on U.S. government databases, to potentially be used by the FBI, DHS, and other agencies for investigations, according to Maher. “It’s interagency data now,” he said.

  The DoD did not answer numerous Epoch Times inquiries about the status and security of the Afghan data, including whether any centralized databases remain in Afghanistan.

  Societal Implications

  More broadly, the DoD’s biometrics program has sparked discussion about the role such technology should play in society.

  “It’s nothing more complicated than fingerprint data, which is over 100 years old,” Maher said of the concerns about government biometrics collection.

  Proponents point to the crime-fighting benefits. Along with the countless cases solved by fingerprint collection, forensic experts have made breakthroughs on DNA analysis—helping law enforcers solve mysteries such as the “Golden State Killer” case.

  Proponents also say that collecting biometric data on citizens allows governments to establish digital identities—allowing people to more easily travel, open bank accounts, receive medical care, and access other social services.

  “Imagine a world where onboarding does not take five days but only four hours. Where to prove you are eligible to receive your UN pension it only takes two minutes from the smartphone in the palm of your hand, compared to two months using the old regular post,” says a United Nations website touting the UN Digital ID. “The UN Digital ID is the same underlying engine that will power all these and many other use cases.”

  However, civil liberties and privacy advocates have raised concerns about governments using biometrics for repression.

  In her book on the DoD’s biometrics project, “First Platoon,” author Annie Jacobsen compared the Afghan program to the Chinese Communist Party’s “Physicals for All” program foisted on the Uyghur Muslims there.

  “In addition to the DNA samples, the Physicals for All program netted biometrics on 36 million Uyghur Chinese—including iris scans, facial images, voice prints, and more,” Jacobsen wrote.

  “Human rights groups are right to call this out, but they have yet to acknowledge that this Physicals for All program is modelled directly after the Pentagon program in Afghanistan.”

  Jacobsen further argued that the Afghan program could come home to the United States in the form of contact tracing and vaccine passport technology. She pointed out that the same company that built software for the Afghan program, Palantir, is now working with the U.S. Health and Human Services Department (HHS) “to bring disparate data sets together and provide better visibility to HHS on the spread of COVID.”

  “The argument that what is happening in China—that is, the mandatory data-banking of a whole population’s biodata, including DNA—could never happen in America is an optimistic one,” she wrote.

  “The pandemic of 2020 has resulted in enthusiasm for government-led contact-tracing programs in the U.S., opening the door for military-grade programs to data-bank biodata of Americans.

  “Because disease lies at the center of this new threat, the reality that citizens’ DNA cell samples are of interest to the government is no longer science fiction.”

  Antiwar activist Scott Horton agreed with Jacobsen’s thesis, arguing that domestic blowback is the predictable consequence of overseas wars.

  “Just look at the Patriot Act: That was supposed to protect us from terrorists, and yet they use it all the time on everybody,” he said.

  This time, it’s conservatives who could be victims of the blowback as U.S. federal agencies ramp up their domestic surveillance activities, said Horton, the editorial director of antiwar.com and author of “Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan.”

  “You know, the people who supported the war are now taking the brunt,” Horton told The Epoch Times.

  “It’s the war on terror come home. That’s what always happens.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/22/2021 – 21:00

• Japan Emerges As Biggest Driver Behind Recent Plunge In Yields
  Japan Emerges As Biggest Driver Behind Recent Plunge In Yields

  As frequent readers will recall, one of the catalysts behind the forceful emergence of the reflation trade in the first quarter was the powerful move higher in yields which many interpreted as markets pricing in higher long-term inflation. In reality, we have since learned that this move – which coincided perfectly with the end of Japan’s fiscal year on March 31  – was largely, if not exclusively, a byproduct of Japan’s giant pension fund, the GPIF, drastically shifting out of treasuries as it slashed its US Treasury exposure by a record amount.

  

  Furthermore, as Morgan Stanley said earlier this month when news of the GPIF’s asset reallocation first emerged, “it is important to avoid the trap of forcibly goalseeking a narrative to lower yields, a trap investors dealt with merely four months ago“:

  Treasury yields rose sharply in March, largely due to selling from Japanese investors, based on their fiscal year-end considerations.

  Yet, most investors mistook the rise in yields as validation for a super-hot economy, and the consensus bought into the idea that 10-year yields were headed above 2%. We cautioned investors that yields had overshot relative to the economic reality. Over the coming weeks, economic data in the US couldn’t keep up with unrealistic expectations, and 10-year yields started grinding lower.

  In other words, GPIF’s decision to dump US Treasuries fooled the world into believing the recovery was accelerating, but now that yields are collapsing again, the asset gatherers and commission-rakers conveniently brush it off as “QE-driven distortion.”

  Fast forward to today when we may be experiencing a remarkable reversal of events from the first quarter.

  As most know, in recent weeks the market has been obsessed with the ongoing plunge in yields with most interpreting this development as spelling the end of any reflationary hopes and signaling perhaps outright deflation. Yet as Morgan Stanley again points out, it could very well be that the recent sharp move lower in yields is again merely the result of country-specific asset reallocation. The country in question? Again Japan.

  As Morgan Stanley’s rates strategist Matthew Hornbach writes in his latest weekly Global Macro Strategist note, global macro markets continue to grapple with the fallout from rising Covid cases driven by the Delta variant, albeit to different extents. With higher vaccination rates, booster vaccines, and stronger fiscal support, most developed economies have some scope for mitigating the economic damage from the rise in cases. As Fed chair Powell noted earlier this week, he doesn’t see “important effects” for the US economy just yet.

  Powell, on August 18: I would say it’s not yet clear whether the delta strain will have important effects on the economy. We’ll have to see about that.

  But while Powell may not have changed his view for the economy based on rising Covid cases yet, markets are grappling with the risk case that the rise in the Delta variant will have a negative effect on the economy. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the recent plunge in 10Y nominal yields to 1.15% and the crash in real yields to all time lows.

  

  Of course, there is nothing revolutionary in arguing that the move lower in yields is a direct result of economic slowdown fears arising from the wide spread of the covid Delta variant which has already prompted fresh lockdowns in various countries such as Australia, Japan and New Zealand… but how much is too much? According to Morgan Stanley, “the decline in Treasury yields in the last two months, coincident with a rise of the Delta variant globally, already prices in that downside risk to a sizeable degree.”

  But a far more actionable observation courtesy of Morgan Stanley’s Matthew Horbnach, is that the buying of Treasurys (i.e., reducing yields) is hardly a uniform event. In fact, as shown in the chart below, the decline in yields has been coming exclusively from overnight buyers, particularly from Asian buyers – i.e., Japan, the same Japan which in Q1 was busy dumping Treasurys –  while US investors as well as European investors seem relatively bullish.

  As shown in the chart below, yields have declined in August only in the Tokyo session, while rising in London and NY sessions.

  

  Furthermore, as Hornbach notes, the lack of follow-through in Treasury yields after the sharp decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment – which curiously saw yields rise despite the most bearish economic signal in the survey’s recent history – “is encouraging in that regard.”

  Paradoxically, this bizarre dump out of Japan may also explain a strange observation in equities: as we noted last week, in the past month the S&P is down 4% in the overnight session and it is up 3.5% from 930am to 4pm. This is a stark reversal of the familiar “overnight futures ramp” which has led to most of the market’s gains in the past decade.

  So is the recent slide in yields the result of aggressive Japanese hedging and/or outright buying of Treasurys? After GPIF’s Q1 stunner, when yields blew out as the pension fund was dumping its Treasury exposure, it certainly is conceivable that Japan’s skittish bond managers have once again taken the entire bond market for the proverbial ride. Throw in the fact that Japan would be wrongfooting the entire market for the second time in six months, and the irony of all those rates experts being confounded by one nation’s bond flow would be complete.

  There’s more: even if the move in rates is more than just “Japan”, the bond market has now taken its downbeat view of the Delta variant too far. Just yesterday, we reported that according to the CDC, the Delta wave has “likely peaked across the Northeast.” This confirms what Morgan Stanley said 10 days ago when it predicted that the Delta wave “will peak in 1-2 weeks.” It’s now almost two weeks later.

  

  Also two weeks ago JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic said that Delta cases are about to turn lower, an inflection point which prompted the quant to call for a bottom in yields and cyclicals.

  Picking up on this, Hornbach writes that the “second derivative of daily cases in the US is peaking, which is in line with our biotechnology analysts’ view that daily Covid case in the US could be peaking in late August/early September.” As shown in the next chart, the rise and fall in Treasury yields over the last few months has a degree of inverse relationship with the rate of change of daily Covid cases (2nd derivative of total cases). In other words, “If Covid cases indeed peak, we would expect Treasury yields to rise.”

  

  And finally, Hornbach who was broken with Wall Street’s dovish trend and expects 10Y yields to hit 1.80% by year end, notes that there may actually be long-term positive effects from the current wave of Covid cases in that it allows the US population to move faster toward herd immunity. This is because (1) more people have been vaccinated after the recent rise in cases, and (2) given the fast spread of the Delta variant in the unvaccinated population, more people gain immunity by developing antibodies after infection.

  On that note, it is remarkable that the latest serological testing in New York City shows that 75% of the population has some form of antibody immunity vs. Covid – immunity whether due to vaccination or actually having defeated the virus – and thus the US is getting ever closer to “herd immunity”.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/22/2021 – 20:30

• Connecticut Allows Patients, Their Doctors, & Local Health Officials To Access COVID-19 Vaccination Records
  Connecticut Allows Patients, Their Doctors, & Local Health Officials To Access COVID-19 Vaccination Records

  Authored by Ella Kietlinska via The Epoch Times,

  Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont issued an executive order that allows patients and their doctors to access patients’ own COVID-19 vaccination digital records stored in the state information system. The order also permits local health officials and school nurses to access the vaccination status of people in their communities.

  

  Gov. Lamont announced on Thursday that patients and their health care providers would be granted access to patients’ COVID-19 vaccination history, according to a statement.

  Connecticut state statutes currently prevent vaccination records from being released to patients and health care providers, the statement said.

  The decree will allow individuals to obtain a copy of their immunization records to satisfy vaccine mandates put in place by employers and businesses.

  Health care providers will be allowed to see their patient’s vaccination history, for example, if they needed to administer vaccine boosters, instead of keeping track of it on their own, the statement said.

  Local health authorities will be permitted to access the vaccination status of people within their jurisdictions to assess the vaccination status of their community, the statement said.

  According to the statement, many communities in Connecticut are still below herd immunity thresholds for COVID-19, so vaccination status data will be used to inform community outreach efforts.

  “Specifically, school nurses and local health directors will be equipped with timely information about the vaccination status of their communities,” the statement said.

  The disclosure remains in effect until the end of September, but it can be modified or terminated, the executive order stated.

  “Without this order, patients will continue to be frustrated that they are blocked from accessing their own vaccination records, and doctors and healthcare providers will be unable to easily lookup when and with what vaccine their patients were administered a COVID-19 vaccine,” Lamont said in the statement.

  Several Connecticut hospitals, health centers, and health center associations expressed their support for the governor’s order.

  Marna Borgstrom, CEO of Yale New Haven Health, said in the statement, “Vaccinations are the only safe and proven way to end this pandemic and giving all Connecticut residents access to their vaccination records will allow us all to return to doing all the things we love with those we love.”

  Connecticut’s immunization information system was created in 1998 and has been recently updated to include vaccination against COVID-19, the disease caused by CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus.

  In order to use the system, all health care providers, school nurses, and local health department users are required to sign a confidentiality agreement that needs to be renewed every two years, according to the statement. Access to the system is monitored and logged, and inappropriate activity can be investigated and addressed, the statement said.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/22/2021 – 20:00

• "At Least" 17 Top Staffers Leave Blue Origin After SpaceX Awarded $2.9 Billion NASA Contract
  “At Least” 17 Top Staffers Leave Blue Origin After SpaceX Awarded $2.9 Billion NASA Contract

  Jeff Bezos’ space exploration company, Blue Origin, saw “at least” 17 of its top staffers defect from the company shortly after Bezos made his publicized trip into outer space.

  One employee, a lead engineer, left to take a job at SpaceX, according to reporting by Insider. Another employee wound up at Firefly Aerospace.

  CNBC then followed up, noting that “many other engineers and key leaders” also left the company. Some of the defectors were part of the team that tried to land a NASA lunar contract that eventually went to SpaceX, the report said.

  The report laid out all of the confirmed departures:

  New Shepard senior vice president Steve Bennett, chief of mission assurance Jeff Ashby (who retired), national security sales director Scott Jacobs, New Glenn senior director Bob Ess, New Glenn first stage senior director Tod Byquist, New Glenn senior finance manager Bill Scammell, senior manager of production testing Christopher Payne, New Shepard technical project manager Nate Chapman, senior propulsion design engineer Dave Sanderson, senior HLS human factors engineer Rachel Forman, BE-4 controller lead integration and testing engineer Jack Nelson, New Shepard lead avionics software engineer Huong Vo, BE-7 avionics hardware engineer Aaron Wang, propulsion engineer Rex Gu, and rocket engine development engineer Gerry Hudak.

  

  About a dozen of the additional employees who left were also confirmed by Fox News.

  A Blue Origin spokesperson told CNBC: “Blue Origin grew by 850 people in 2020 and we have grown by another 650 so far in 2021. In fact, we’ve grown by nearly a factor of four over the past three years. We continue to fill out major leadership roles in manufacturing, quality, engine design, and vehicle design. It’s a team we’re building and we have great talent.”

  The departures came shortly after NASA announced in April that SpaceX would get a $2.9 billion contract for a moon lander. Blue Origin had appealed not getting the contract back in April, but the appeal was rejected by the Government Accountability Office in July. 

  Blue Origin still has about 4,000 employees and is headquartered in Kent, Washington.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/22/2021 – 19:30

• Biden Stands By Kabul Evacuation, Laughs When Confronted With Poll Suggesting Majority No Longer See Him As "Competent Or Effective"
  Biden Stands By Kabul Evacuation, Laughs When Confronted With Poll Suggesting Majority No Longer See Him As “Competent Or Effective”

  There was a remarkable moment in Biden’s press conference on Sunday afternoon. Asked by a CBS journalist Ed O’Keefe – who had to obsequiously preface his question by saying “I am sorry, I am just the messenger” – what Biden thinks about the first full post-Kabul poll which found that a “majority of Americans no longer consider Biden competent, focused or effective” the president laughed, denied seeing the poll and cited various statistics about the total number of dead and wounded in Afghanistan, read from a notecard,  oblivious of the fact that the question did not refer to the overall strategy of withdrawal from Afghanistan which a majority of Americans approve, but his bunged retreat which has left thousands of Americans in harms way, not to mention leaving Afghanistan a smoldering mess.

  “I haven’t seen that poll,” @edokeefe asks President Biden to respond to a new CBS News poll that suggests Americans mostly disapprove of his handling of Afghanistan. pic.twitter.com/5O6bk0qm4b

  — CBS News (@CBSNews) August 22, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Biden’s response: “I think that history is gonna record this was the logical, rational and right decision to make.”

  History maybe, but Americans certainly not: as CBS prefaced its own poll, “Most Americans have wanted to withdraw from Afghanistan for a while, and most still do. But not like this.“

  As a result of the botched withdrawal, the poll found a sharp hit on qualities the public saw a positive like competence, focus, and effectiveness — now those are each at least slightly net negative.

  

  Obviously, the catalyst for Biden’s plunge in the polls was his handling the withdrawal, where mainly Democrats backing him here and a substantial drop since July.

  

  Biden’s overall approval rating, which had been consistently net positive since he took office also took a hit, dropping eight points and now lands at an even 50-50 nationwide.

  

  Biden took an especially big hit among independents. They’d given him positive marks in July, but now, more than half disapprove of how he’s handling both withdrawing from Afghanistan and his job overall. His overall approval is down within his own Democratic Party — it’s still high, in the 80s, but off its highs in the 90s. And while he had enjoyed a bit of Republican approval through the summer, that has dropped.

  While he saw sharp drops across most categories, Biden is still positive on handling the coronavirus outbreak, but that is also down from last month.

  But the biggest problem facing Biden, and one which won’t go away, is that two thirds of Americans feel the president does not have a clear plan for evacuating U.S. civilians from Afghanistan.

  

  Sensing that his Afghanistan planning is his biggest weakness, the president assured the public the “hard and painful” Afghan evacuation is going smoothly, even as officials are struggling to explain the details. He added that placing sanctions on the Taliban “depends on the context.”

  The American military airlifted some 11,000 US citizens, NATO allies, former Afghan employees of the US military, and other “vulnerable” Afghans out of Kabul airport over the weekend, Biden told reporters at a press conference on Sunday.

  After a week of chaos in Kabul, Biden insisted that the evacuation would have been “hard and painful no matter when we started,” a rebuke to pundits and political opponents who described the evacuation as rushed and chaotis.

  “There is no way to evacuate this many people without pain and loss,” Biden stated, adding that his “heart aches” for those who lost their lives at the airport.

  And while Biden touted the US military’s ability to move “thousands” of people out each day, several thousand Americans remain in Kabul, and have been left to make their own way to the airport. Biden refused to say whether US forces were leaving airport grounds to rescue these Americans, but said that “by and large,” Taliban fighters – who run security outside the airport – are allowing them to leave.

  However, Biden’s officials have described the situation less optimistically. Speaking to CBS News earlier on Sunday, Secretary of State Tony Blinken said that the US was depending on the Taliban’s permission to allow Americans to pass through, and in an interview with ABC News, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that some of these Americans had experienced “tough encounters” with Taliban militants.

  The US’ “first priority in Kabul is getting American citizens out of the country,” Biden told reporters. However, the president also outlined a system where Afghan allies eligible for US visas, as well as an unspecified number of “vulnerable Afghans” would be flown to other countries, vetted, and then shuttled into the United States to be resettled. The resettlement program, he said, “exemplifies the best of America.”

  Biden has acknowledged that future diplomacy with Afghanistan will mean diplomacy with the Taliban, as the militant group seeks “economic assistance” and “legitimacy.” Biden did not say whether the US would provide the former or acknowledge the latter, noting that the Taliban’s promises have thus far been “just words.”

  Depending on how a Taliban government pans out, Biden said that he would possibly support sanctions against the Islamist group, “depend[ing] on the context.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/22/2021 – 19:07

• One Bank Spots Abnormally Heavy Ethereum Call Volumes, Asks If A Surge Is Coming
  One Bank Spots Abnormally Heavy Ethereum Call Volumes, Asks If A Surge Is Coming

  With seemingly every major bank launching its own regular periodic research report and/or analysis on the state of the crypto industry, last week UBS joined the fray when in addition to its Crypto Compass note published by the bank’s FX team, it also sent out an inaugural Crypto Keys note in which it asked whether ether will steal bitcoin’s crown as the king of cryptocurrencies. According to the note’s author, Moritz Diller, “many believe this is inevitable, especially after ETH 2.0 ushers in the shift to proof-of-stake next year and as DeFi interest builds.” However, UBS is less sure, as “each represents a different value proposition and use case while facing its own challenges and indeed challengers.”

  While there are various, and numerous, considerations listed by UBS on the topic of the “flippening” or that moment when ether overtakes bitcoin, in its latest report UBS focuses on two key factors that could determine the price of the 2nd largest cryptocurrency in coming weeks.

  First, looking at the downside risk, Diller writes that “what should give bulls pause is active addresses failing to show any signs of fresh life. These start from a much higher point than bitcoin, which also looks decidedly lackluster here.”

  

  And yet the bearish case is not that clear-cut: as UBS notes, traditionally such demand-side indicators of network effects are the most powerful predictors of future price movements. However, what’s occurring instead is that “prices have been lifted largely by HODLing effects, as volumes of ETH sent to exchanges—typically in order to be sold—are plumbing to year-to-date lows.”

  

  In other words, while activity may be declining sale activity is declining even more, as “believers are squirreling it away.”

  To UBS, such behavior may account for not just ether’s correlation break with FANG-type stocks but an increasingly pronounced inverse relationship.

  

  UBS conclusion is that while it would be a stretch to say one was being used to hedge the other, it does represent “an intriguing proposition that platforms like Ethereum could represent a strategic threat to established tech.” It also validates what Goldman said back in May when the bank initiated on crypto with a much more favorable view of ETH calling it the “amazon of information“, while panning bitcoin as a “one trick pony.”

  UBS next looks at the vol space which has seen substantial turbulence in recent months, and where as spot rallied so did implied vol, especially at the 3month point where vols rose by over 10 handles for both.

  

  Whereas such a move would routinely cause the term structure to flatten or even invert, instead the opposite happened with mid-to-longer dated tenors not only trading in premium but near historic realized extremes.

  But this is where the similarities end between the markets for bitcoin and ether, and as UBS observes, “whereas BTC option volumes are hovering around their one year average, which is consistent with periods of upward moving prices, ETH interest stands at levels only seen during May’s sharp sell-off” when the ETH crash sparked a flood of option-driven flows.

  

  UBS then spots the same pattern in skews, where both flipped to favor calls at the end of July but are now diverging on the back of even stronger topside demand in ETH. In other words, while traders are clearly bullish on the crypto space, they see far more upside for ETH in coming weeks.

  

  What could be behind this? Here is UBS’ view:

  We’d surmise things aren’t particularly frothy or one-sided but are probably undergoing a reappraisal in terms of medium-term expectations, particularly for ETH. This may reflect reduced retail flow while other market participants are extending their investment horizon—and spending more premium—in anticipation of increased institutional adoption in the fall when US futures-based ETFs may finally get the nod.

  To this we will only add that there is always the possibility of a gamma squeeze in crypto which is lifting spot prices even as overall active addresses shrink. If so, a quick look at the option strikes by market price for BTC and ETH reveals that while Bitcoin’s most active strike is not too far from the current price, some around $50,000, the “max gamma” for Ether is far higher and it could send the crypto currency as high as $6,000, or double the current price, should a gamma squeeze emerge as that’s roughly where the most active – by far strike – is to be found.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/22/2021 – 19:00

• Taiwan Says China Is Trying To "Emulate" What The Taliban Did In Afghanistan
  Taiwan Says China Is Trying To “Emulate” What The Taliban Did In Afghanistan

  In the latest chapter in what can only be described as a metastasizing sh*tshow between China and Taiwan, Taiwan has now claimed that China wants to “emulate” the Taliban and take over Taiwan the same way Islamic radicals took over Afghanistan.

  Taiwan said the island is “ready to defend itself” against Beijing in the event China tries to seize power, according to RT.

  Taiwan has been watching, along with the world, as the collapse of the Afghanistan has taken place in short order over the last few weeks. Chinese state media has called the events in Afghanistan “a lesson” for Taiwan that Americans can’t be trusted and that they will “abandon” Taipei like they did with Kabul.

  US State Department spokesman Ned Price countered those comments on Friday, stating that the U.S. “considers peace and security in the Taiwan Strait essential for stability in the whole of the Indo-Pacific region”.

  

  He stated: “Events elsewhere in the world – whether that’s Afghanistan or any other region – aren’t going to change that.” He urged Beijing to “cease its military, diplomatic, economic pressure” on the island, the RT report says. 

  Taiwan foreign minister Wu thanked Washington on Saturday for “upholding the wishes and best interests of the people of Taiwan.” 

  “China dreams of emulating the Taliban, but let me be blunt: We’ve got the will and means to defend ourselves,” Wu said. 

  Washington remains the largest arms supplier to Taiwan.

  Thanks for upholding the wishes & best interests of the people of #Taiwan. They include democracy & freedom from communism, authoritarianism & crimes against humanity. #China dreams of emulating the #Taliban, but let me be blunt: We’ve got the will & means to defend ourselves. JW https://t.co/p71Mru2RLl

  — 外交部 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ROC (Taiwan) 🇹🇼 (@MOFA_Taiwan) August 21, 2021

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  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/22/2021 – 18:30

• Sen. Joe Manchin Dares To Admit: "The Coal Industry Has To Be Saved"
  Sen. Joe Manchin Dares To Admit: “The Coal Industry Has To Be Saved”

  Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

  In a notable break with progressives, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said in an interview that the coal industry “will be saved, has to be saved, because the country can’t survive without it.”

  

  Others in the Democratic Party have asserted that the coal industry contributes to global warming and that it should be replaced with other sources of “clean” energy like wind turbines, solar panels, and alternative, low-to-zero emission fuels. Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) budget resolution includes provisions to encourage green energy sources and to discourage traditional energy sources. In 2016, then-presidential candidate Hillary Clinton threatened to put the coal industry “out of business.”

  Manchin has long been castigated by some progressives for his moderate policy positions. This defense of the coal industry is his latest break with the left wing of his party.

  However, the West Virginia Democrat’s defense of the coal industry is not surprising. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, coal is the energy source for a staggering majority of electricity generation in his state.

  In May 2021, coal provided nearly five million MWh of electricity to West Virginia, while the next most used source, natural gas, provided less than 300 thousand MWh. Green energy sources in the state provide even less: hydroelectric accounts for 134 thousand MWh and non-hydroelectric renewables (like biomass, solar, and wind) account for only 106 thousand MWh. This means that nearly 91 percent of all electricity in the state is sourced by burning coal. In short, West Virginia would simply not be able to abandon coal over any brief timespan.

  Manchin went one step further and repudiated the idea that America’s coal industry was “polluting the world and the climate.” He argued that it “has no effect whatsoever compared to the impact of Asia.” According to the International Energy Agency, this is true. China surpassed the United States in carbon emissions in 2006; by 2018, the country pumped nearly twice as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as the United States.

  Manchin proposed another solution:

  “If you want to help clean up the climate, you’re gonna have to find the technology through innovation to capture the carbon [released from burning coal] and utilize it.”

  Moreover, Manchin believes that there will eventually be “a transition” to other sources of energy like atomic fusion, hydrogen gas, and nuclear power. While he looks forward to the adoption of these kinds of alternative fuels, he strongly rejects a sudden transition to these power sources.

  This commitment to phasing coal out gradually puts Manchin in conflict with Sanders and other progressives. While presenting the $3.5 trillion budget resolution on the Senate floor, Sanders said that $265 billion would go toward funding an “extremely aggressive” transformation of the U.S. energy system away from fossil fuels.

  While Manchin voted before the Senate went into recess to move the bill to debate “out of courtesy to [his] colleagues,” he also said that he was “not making any promises” to vote for it when it came back to the Senate. Beyond opposing this “extremely aggressive” transformation from coal, a move that would hurt his constituents, Manchin has expressed opposition to the extraordinary price tag of the bill and has voiced concerns elsewhere about the effect it would have on the national debt.

  Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) must hold his thin coalition together to get Sanders’s budget passed. Even if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) can calm Democratic disagreement in the House, Manchin’s commitment to protecting the coal industry makes it increasingly unlikely that the resolution will make it to the president’s desk.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/22/2021 – 18:05

• At Least 22 Dead, 50 Missing After Deadliest Flood Event Ever In Middle Tennessee
  At Least 22 Dead, 50 Missing After Deadliest Flood Event Ever In Middle Tennessee

  Update (1804ET): At least 22 people were killed and 50 others unaccounted for on Sunday afternoon after torrential rains triggered flash floods that swept through two small towns in Middle Tennessee. 

  

  Humphreys County Emergency Management Agency said the death toll has now reached 22, and 51 people are missing. 

  TRIGGER WARNING ⚠️

  This seems to be an image of Loretta Lynn’s Ranch foreman Wayne Spears hanging on for survival in the Humphreys County flooding that killed 22 with 30 more missing.

  He did not survive. The structure washed away before he could be saved. (h/t @LiquidWench)💔 pic.twitter.com/PYfL8okgoU

  — The Tennessee Holler (@TheTNHoller) August 22, 2021

  Search and rescue operations have been ongoing since the flash floods swept through Waverly and McEwen on Saturday. 

  “Things are moving fast and we are finding people left and right,” Rob Edwards, the chief deputy of the Humphreys County Sheriff’s, told the NYTimes in an emailed response. He warned the death toll is expected to increase. 

  

  Mayor Buddy Frazier of Waverly told local news WKRN that the damage across his town was “staggering.” He said homes and businesses were swept off their foundations by the floodwaters. 

  Edwards said search and rescue operations had been hampered by widespread loss of power, cellphone service, and damage to certain infrastructures, such as roads and bridges. 

  “We have lost a lot of roads, both rural and major highways,” he said. “In my 28 years, it’s the worst I’ve ever seen it.”

  The National Weather Service in Nashville said this was the deadliest flood event in Middle Tennessee history.

  * * * 

  With everyone fixated on the tropical system that is about to smash Long Island or southern New England, another weather event crushed two small towns in Middle Tennessee has left at least ten people dead and dozens missing, according to The Tennessean. 

  

  Catastrophic flooding struck the small towns of Waverly and McEwen Saturday, where as much as 17 inches of rain fell over a 24-hour period. 

  

  Humphreys County Sheriff Chris Davis reports ten dead and 40 missing after the flash floods. Sheriffs and other first responders are conducting door-to-door searches. 

  The Hardin County Fire Department, which is now supporting Humphreys County rescue operations called the destruction nothing short of “unbelievable.” 

  Social media shows posts show destruction is everywhere. The flash flooding wiped homes and businesses off their foundations, submerged vehicles, and left millions of dollars in damage. Infrastructure was also damaged, such as roads and bridges were washed away. 

  The Tennessee National Guard was deployed to Humphreys County to assist residents after 15 inches of rain the area on Saturday, killing 10 people & leaving 31 missing.
  Prayers for all the families here in my home State. 🙏🏼 #Tennessee #Flood #flashflood pic.twitter.com/tT20eeP89C

  — ∼Marietta (@ThisIsMarietta) August 22, 2021

  Are you or your loved ones needing shelter after the floods in Hickman, Humphreys, and Dickson counties? See where you can receive relief items and comfort –> https://t.co/gOp2hifGdC pic.twitter.com/ADt4GxElt4

  — WSMV News4 Nashville (@WSMV) August 22, 2021

  TUNE IN AT 8 A.M.: Catastrophic flooding in Humphreys County leaves 10 dead and 31 missing. Now, search efforts are underway, and News 4 is with a family as they look for loved ones. https://t.co/l49Mli92Fp pic.twitter.com/kUlx0GIAp5

  — WSMV News4 Nashville (@WSMV) August 22, 2021

  According to local authorities, catastrophic flooding in middle #Tennessee left at least ten people dead and dozens missing on Saturday as record-shattering rainfall washed away homes and rural roads. pic.twitter.com/fxuswtEutt

  — ANews (@anews) August 22, 2021

  Damage in every direction in Waverly, TN. #waverly pic.twitter.com/FWC92QEb2y

  — Steve Smith (@stevesmith1043) August 22, 2021

  The Red Cross has arrived in the devastated county and is erecting emergency shelters on Sunday morning. 

  “Our volunteers and staff will begin the response of surveying the area Sunday morning and will begin to assess the needs of each community we are serving following these storms,” said Joel Sullivan, regional executive director for Red Cross of Tennessee. “We are working with our local partners and government officials to ensure that recovery services are provided to begin helping the residents get back on their feet as quickly as we can.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/22/2021 – 18:04

• Biden Security Advisor Warns Of "Acute" Terror Risk At Kabul Airport As Blinken Says Americans On Their Own Getting There
  Biden Security Advisor Warns Of “Acute” Terror Risk At Kabul Airport As Blinken Says Americans On Their Own Getting There

  Update:  Just when it seemed that things may be stabilizing at the Kabul Airport, Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on CNN’s State of the Union that the U.S. is placing “paramount priority” on defending crowds at Kabul airport seeking to leave Afghanistan against a potential Islamic State terrorist attack.

  “The threat is real, it is acute, it is persistent and it is something that we are focused on with every tool in our arsenal,” Sullivan said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “We are working hard with our intelligence community to try to isolate and determine where an attack might come from.” In Kabul, U.S. commanders “have a wide variety of capabilities that they are using to defend the airfield against a potential terrorist attack,” he said. “We are taking it absolutely, deadly seriously.”

  National security adviser Jake Sullivan on the threat of ISIS attacking the airport in Kabul, Afghanistan: “The threat is real. It is acute. It is persistent. And it is something that we are focused on with every tool in our arsenal.” https://t.co/XDgiI0kiQU #CNNSOTU pic.twitter.com/Fg9D0MVUmx

  — State of the Union (@CNNSotu) August 22, 2021

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  In a stunning follow up, Blinken then said that leaving Americans get to the Kabul airport on their own is “the best way to do this.”

  Blinken: Leaving Americans to get to the Kabul airport on their own is “the best way to do this.” pic.twitter.com/8Ocom7JsgL

  — Arthur Schwartz (@ArthurSchwartz) August 22, 2021

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  Sullivan’s comment follows a report from CNN that the US military is establishing “alternative routes” to Kabul airport because of an ISIS terror threat to the airport and its surroundings. “There is a strong possibility ISIS-K is trying to carry off an attack at the airport,” a US defense official told CNN. A senior diplomat in Kabul said they are aware of a credible but not immediate threat by Islamic State against Americans at Hamid Karzai International Airport.

  Two US defense officials described to CNN the military effort to establish “alternative routes” for people to get to Kabul airport and its access gates, with one saying these new routes will be available to Americans, third party nationals and qualified Afghans. The Taliban are aware of the new effort and are coordinating with the US, one of the officials said.

  The report goes on to say that the Pentagon – which was “stunned” by the Taliban’s blitz takeover of the country but apparently now is on top of ISIS terror chatter – has been monitoring the situation around the airport, aware that the swelling crowds on the grounds and around the airfield create a target for ISIS-K (referring to Islamic State Khorasan, the Islamic State’s affiliate in Pakistan and Afghanistan) and other organizations, which may use car bombs or suicide bombers to attack, the second official said. Mortar attacks are another possible threat.

  The broadly sketched-out details call for people to follow new routes and access points in coordination with Taliban on the ground in an attempt to help disperse the gathering of large crowds or avoid the crowds altogether. US personnel would be in a position to observe the movement of people to ensure safety, but the official would not specify if that involves direct observation by nearby troops as well as the use of intelligence sensors.

  “There’s a whole canopy of security concerns we have,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said at a press briefing Saturday, as he described the military “fighting against both time and space” in its effort to safely evacuate people.

  Separately, Biden has been meeting with his national security team on Sunday morning and has scheduled a news conference on topics including Afghanistan for 4 p.m. in Washington. The president will hold a virtual meeting with other Group of Seven leaders on Tuesday to coordinate evacuations and discuss humanitarian aid for Afghan refugees, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said.

  As reported earlier, overnight the Defense Department ordered U.S. airlines to provide 18 planes to transport evacuees, saying the extra capacity will help military aircraft focus on operations in and out of Kabul. Activation of the Civil Reserve Air Fleet program involves four planes from United Airlines, three each from American Airlines, Atlas Air, Delta Air Lines and Omni Air and two from Hawaiian Airlines, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in a statement Sunday.

  The activated aircraft won’t fly into the Kabul airport, site of chaotic scenes as people desperate to leave the Afghan capital have been reduced to desperation. Instead, they’ll be used for onward movement of passengers from temporary safe havens and interim staging bases, Kirby said. It was unclear how providing more aircraft will resolve an evacuation whose bottleneck is ensuring airport access to those who wish to flee.

  The U.S. and its allies airlifted a combined 7,800 people out of Kabul in the latest 24-hour period, Sullivan said. Some 25,000 people have been evacuated since Aug. 14, he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” While the U.S. has sufficient forces on the ground, Biden asks his commanders “every single day” whether they might need more resources, Sullivan said. Several thousand U.S. citizens are still believed to be in Afghanistan, though it’s hard to determine a more exact number, Sullivan said.

  * * *

  Earlier:

  As the world awaits for what the US president will do next over the botched evacuation of US citizens in Afghanistan, with a press conference scheduled for 4pm on Sunday, things at the makeshift US “embassy” at the Kabul remain deadly tense.

  According to Reuters, the Taliban fired in the air and used batons to make people line up in orderly queues outside Kabul airport on Sunday, witnesses said, a day the Britain’s defense ministry said seven Afghans were killed in the crush around the airport on Saturday as thousands of people desperately tried to get a flight out. There have been other stampedes and crushing injuries in the crowds, especially as Taliban fighters fire into the air to drive away those desperate to get on any flight out of the country.

  “Conditions on the ground remain extremely challenging but we are doing everything we can to manage the situation as safely and securely as possible,” the British Defense Ministry said in a statement.

  Sky News showed footage of soldiers standing on a wall on Saturday attempting to pull the injured out from the crush and spraying people with a hose to prevent them from getting dehydrated.

  Reportage poignant de Stuart Ramsay, le doyen des correspondants de SkyNews, dans le chaos innommable de l’aéroport de Kaboul. pic.twitter.com/cWYzbJcSnm

  — Pascal Riché (@pascalriche) August 22, 2021

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  “Conditions on the ground remain extremely challenging but we are doing everything we can to manage the situation as safely and securely as possible,” the ministry said in a statement. 

  A NATO official said that at least 20 people have died in the past seven days in and around the airport. Some were shot and others died in stampedes, witnesses have said.  “The crisis outside the Kabul airport is unfortunate. Our focus is to evacuate all foreigners as soon as we can,” the NATO official told the Guardian.

  The good news is that according to Ramsay the situation outside the airport is “calmer” but “could change any time.”

  Sky’s Stuart Ramsay says the situation outside Kabul’s airport is ‘calmer’, but it ‘could change anytime’.

  People have been queuing for evacuation for hours and days with little water, and crowd crushing resulted in at least three deaths.

  Latest: https://t.co/HOW1wt0fpz pic.twitter.com/UJKxToC8xo

  — Sky News (@SkyNews) August 22, 2021

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  Speaking to an Iranian state television channel late Saturday night in a video call, Taliban spokesman Mohammad Naeem blamed the deaths at the airport on the Americans in what quickly became a combative interview.

  “The Americans announced that we would take you to America with us and people gathered at Kabul airport,” Naeem said. “If it was announced right now in any country in the world, would people not go?”

  The host on Iranian state TV quickly said: “It won’t happen in Iran.” Naeem responded: “Be sure this will happen anywhere.”

  Meanwhile, the United States and other foreign countries including Britain have brought in several thousand troops to manage the evacuations of foreign citizens and vulnerable Afghans, but have stayed away from the outside areas of the airport.

  “Our forces are maintaining strict distance from the outer areas of the Kabul airport to prevent any clashes with the Taliban,” the NATO official said. A Taliban official said on Sunday that “we are seeking complete clarity on foreign forces’ exit plan.”

  “Managing chaos outside Kabul airport is a complex task,” the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told Reuters.

  On Saturday, the United States and Germany told their citizens in Afghanistan to avoid traveling to Kabul airport – one day after Joe Biden said there was “no indication that [Americans] haven’t been able to get, in Kabul, through the airport – as desperate crowds gathered.

  Army Major General William Taylor told a Pentagon briefing on Saturday that 5,800 U.S. troops remain at the airport and that the facility “remains secure”. Taylor said some gates into the airport were temporarily closed and reopened over the past day to facilitate a safe influx of evacuees. He also said that the US flag continues to wave at this makeshift “US embassy.” Taylor said that in the past week the United States has evacuated 17,000 people, including 2,500 Americans, from Kabul.

  Australia ran four flights into Kabul on Saturday night, evacuating more than 300 people, including Australians, Afghan visa holders, New Zealanders, U.S. and British citizens, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said.

  On Saturday, speaking at a rally in Alabama, Donald Trump called the botched evacuation of Afghanistan “the greatest foreign policy humiliation” in U.S. history.

  * * *

  And so as thousands wait for their turn to flee Kabul, Taliban leaders are trying to hammer out a new government while the Taliban’s co- founder, Mullah Baradar, has arrived in the Afghan capital for talks with other leaders. Taliban commanders are set to meet former governors and bureaucrats in more than 20 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces over the next few days to ensure their safety and seek cooperation, the Taliban official said on Sunday.

  Meanwhile, fighting has erupted in Afghanistan’s northern Baghlan province, some 120 kilometers north of Kabul. Forces organizing under the banner of the “People’s Uprising” have taken three districts around the Andarab Valley, nestled in the Hindu Kush mountains near Panjshir, the only province still not under Taliban control, where remnants of government forces and other militia groups have gathered.  While details of the fighting remain unclear, it marks the first organized resistance to rise up against the Taliban since they blitzed across the country in under a week to seize the majority of the country and its capital.

  On Sunday, the Taliban published video online showing fighters, including their elite special forces, preparing to head there, possibly to fight the “People’s Uprising” forces. Four officials said the Taliban had gone into the Keshnabad area of Andarab Valley to abduct the children of those opposing them.

  Khair Mohammad Khairkhwa, the former head of intelligence in Balkh province, and Abdul Ahmad Dadgar, another leader in the uprising, alleged that Taliban fighters had attacked people’s homes and burned them while taking children. Two other officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, also alleged the Taliban seized fighters’ children. The Taliban did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the fighting.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/22/2021 – 17:45

• WikiLeaks Reviews Some Of Its 'Greatest Hits' Leaks On Afghanistan
  WikiLeaks Reviews Some Of Its ‘Greatest Hits’ Leaks On Afghanistan

  Amid the total unraveling of Afghanistan in the wake of the Biden-ordered US troop withdraw and ongoing severely botched evacuation effort centered at Kabul’s international airport, WikiLeaks has been republishing a few of its more interesting leaks related to the past Afghan war logs, a vast drove of classified US documents which first hit public view over a decade ago.

  Also this past week a 2011 clip of Julian Assange breaking down what’s behind America’s longest ever war has resurfaced and is going viral: “The goal is to use Afghanistan to wash money out of the tax bases of the US and Europe through Afghanistan and back into the hands of a transnational security elite. The goal is an endless war, not a successful war,” Assange said in the old interview footage. 

  

  Below are some of the more interesting archived leaked documents that WikiLeaks called attention to this past week and into the weekend related to Afghanistan and America’s longest running war.

  1) NATO ‘death squads’ in Afghanistan…

  NATO forces in #Afghanistan used “special forces ‘black unit’, Task Force 373, to hunt down targets for death or detention without trial” also killing “civilian men, women and children”, WikiLeaks revealedhttps://t.co/qqz3fBkdnV

  — WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) August 21, 2021

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  2) The CIA attempted to blunt criticism of the US ‘endless’ occupation by creating propaganda that emphasized feminism for “targeted manipulation of public opinion”…

  CIA Report: Use feminism to reduce Western opposition to military occupation of #Afghanistan [2010]

  Link: https://t.co/amFuJVKDMw pic.twitter.com/hUJrauNYwW

  — WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) August 21, 2021

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  3) Complex underground fortresses were built in the 1980’s with Osama bin Laden and CIA cooperation…

  Tunnels bombed by US in #Afghanistan were originally built by the CIA | via New York Times #Talibanhttps://t.co/hS4eKMr85r pic.twitter.com/AXmRq2FXKM

  — WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) August 21, 2021

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  4) NSA swept up entire country’s communications…

  NSA rolled out unprecedented mass surveillance in #Afghanistan in 2013, recording and storing nearly all domestic and international phone calls, WikiLeaks revealed

  Link: https://t.co/vWwU4DIYba pic.twitter.com/ZsS1fkoHqh

  — WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) August 21, 2021

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  5) Sweden wanted to utilize bombing raids over Afghanistan to better market and promote a new fighter jet…

  US Cable: Sweden wanted to bomb Afghani’s in order to ‘enhance the marketability’ of their new Gripen fighter jets #Afghanistanhttps://t.co/FFy8cbSJDs pic.twitter.com/PGYHp30UQT

  — WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) August 21, 2021

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  6) Corrupt Afghan leaders were known to fly out of the country with millions in cash – in one case a whopping $52 million…

  WikiLeaks Cable details how in one incident the then vice-president of #Afghanistan Ahmad Zia Massoud was stopped and questioned in Dubai when he flew into the emirate with $52m in cash

  Source Document: https://t.co/mZ8BlN20Lxhttps://t.co/dPrnnPZ65e

  — WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) August 19, 2021

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  7) NATO command consistently told over the years not to discuss an end date to the war…

  “There is no pre-defined end date…” NATO Master Narrative for Afghanistan [2008] #Afghanistan https://t.co/iHS59vm5B0 pic.twitter.com/Ts7KjqalPj

  — WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) August 21, 2021

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  8) Afghanistan war logs exposed large-scale massacres of civilians by US and coalition bombers…

  An Interview With Julian Assange covering the 181 kill AC-130 ‘Medusa Massacre’ in Kandahar [2015] #Afghanistan #FreeAssange #NoExtraditionhttps://t.co/Z8sgz0ggBR pic.twitter.com/IXxQR5NsL3

  — WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) August 21, 2021

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  9) US intelligence has long understood that Afghan national police were “predatory and corrupt”…

  “The [Afghan National Police] is severely underfunded, undertrained, and poorly equipped. Additionally, the Afghan populace views the police as predatory and corrupt”, USG’s 2008 Findings and Recommendations on #Afghanistan and Pakistanhttps://t.co/NZm2eEyOuc pic.twitter.com/3pS3ULbqNd

  — WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) August 22, 2021

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  10) Assange on “the goal” of the transnational security elite…

  Julian Assange speaking in 2011: “The goal is to use Afghanistan to wash money out of the tax bases of the US and Europe through Afghanistan and back into the hands of a transnational security elite. The goal is an endless war, not a successful war” #Afghanistan pic.twitter.com/Hg3qVzABBg

  — WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) August 18, 2021

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  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/22/2021 – 17:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• The Dollar's Debt Trap
  The Dollar’s Debt Trap

  Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

  On the fiftieth anniversary of the Nixon Shock, this article explains why fiat currencies have become joined at the hip to financial asset values. And why with increasing inevitability they are about to descend into the next financial crisis together.

  I start by defining the currencies we use as money and how they originate. I show why they are no more than the counterpart of assets on central bank and commercial bank balance sheets. Including bonds and other financial issues emanating from the US Government, the individual states, with the private sector and with broad money supply, dollar debt totals roughly $100 trillion, to which we can add shadow banking liabilities realistically estimated at a further $30 trillion.

  This gives us an idea of the scale of the threat to asset values and banking posed by higher interest rates, which are now all but certain. The prospect of contracting financial asset values is potentially far worse than in any post-war financial crisis, because the valuation base for them starts at zero and even negative interest rates in the case of Europe and Japan.

  I focus on the dollar because it is everyone’s reserve currency and I show why a significant bear market in financial asset values is likely to take down the dollar with it, and therefore, in that event, threatens the survival of all other fiat currencies.

  

  Introduction

  Dickensian attitudes to debt (Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, misery) reflected the discipline of sound money and the threat of the workhouse. It was an attitude to debt that carried on even to the 1960s. But the financial world changed forever in 1971 when post-war monetary stability ended with the Nixon shock, exactly fifty years ago.

  Micawber’s aphorism was aimed at personal spending. It was advice given to a young David Copperfield, rather than a recipe for life. But since money’s transmogrification into pure fiat and as soon as youngsters in the fiat-currency world began to earn, Micawberism no longer held. Figure 1 shows the decline in purchasing power of fiat currencies in which earnings are paid relative to the sound money (gold) that had underpinned the post-war Bretton Woods agreement.

  

  In the four major currencies, Micawber’s advice turns out to have been inappropriate and the opposite of being the path to riches. To benefit from a lender’s losses, a borrower merely had to ensure two things: that he could always service his debt and that the lender could not reclaim the debt before it was due so long as it was serviced according to the contract.

  Unsurprisingly, everyone who could dismiss Micawberisms did so and increasingly turned borrower, financing house purchases with mortgages and supplementing earnings with borrowing for consumption. Since 1970, average house prices in the UK have increased from £4,057 to £256,000 today. But as a means of hedging the fall in the pound’s purchasing power, it has underperformed sound money. Instead of buying a house, if £4,057 had been hedged into gold it would now be worth £100,000 more. And according to the St Louis Fed’s statistical base, median sales prices of houses sold in the US rose from $23,000 in 1970 to $375,000 today, an increase of 16.3 times. Invested in gold, it would have risen to $1,162,000.

  These figures assume no mortgage borrowing, which would have made all the difference. The message for those who speculated in residential property is to have borrowed as much as could be afforded. 90% loan-to-value mortgages would have knocked the socks off the long-term decline in fiat money’s purchasing power.

  The basic lesson hasn’t been lost on industry either. It has moved on from borrowing with a view to repayment from the profits of production to running debt permanently, further encouraged by the practice of private equity using debt to leverage returns. Governments too have exploited the dubious benefits of debt: it enables them to spend without increasing unpopular taxes. And today, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s baseline budget projections for the current fiscal year, 44% of government spending is financed by debt.

  The origin of all this debt is monetary expansion, mostly from the banking system but topped up by the central banks. It is a mistake to view it as deposit money originating from savers, which is the common fallacy, as we shall now illustrate.

  The origin of debt

  Many economists and financial commentators assume that deposits equate to savings, when instead they equate to debt. The error arises from not understanding how deposits are created. To explain it we shall start with the central bank. A central bank acquires assets in the form of bills, bonds, and loans, by issuing deposits matched by them to the government’s account and to commercial banks, along with bank notes to the public.

  The point is that the central bank issues deposits and bank notes to acquire assets, and they do not arise by any other means.

  It is true that bank notes can be deposited at a bank, in return for which a customer’s deposit account is credited, but this is a minor part of total bank deposits. The origin of the rest of deposit money is always the consequence of credit creation. A bank lends money to a borrower by recording the loan as an asset, and at the same time it credits the borrower’s deposit account with the proceeds. This is because through double entry book-keeping a credit in its asset column must always match an equal debit on the liability side. It is through this process that deposits are created. And as a bank loan is drawn down, both the bank’s assets and liabilities reflect the change in balances.

  The borrower draws down his loan from the bank to pay his creditors, and in turn they pay the proceeds into their bank accounts. To the latter, they have earned the money, but its origin nonetheless is bank credit, or if they are paid in bank notes, central bank credit. Consequently, it is a mistake to look at a bank’s balance sheet, observe that it has, say, $100 billion of deposits and conclude that the bank possess it. It doesn’t. Among its assets, it will have a small amount of vault cash (bank notes) and some assets that can be liquidated immediately to meet withdrawals if need be. And all the deposits on a bank’s balance sheet showing as liabilities are debts to its lending customers.

  So, what about savings? Savings are simply unspent bank credit and hoarded bank notes. The only true money, a medium of exchange whose origin is not debt, is physical gold. Otherwise, savings in the form of bank deposits and bank notes owe their origin entirely to debt. We can now explain the mystery of the accumulation of money supply. It is not an accumulation of savings, but an accumulation of the counterpart to debt financed by the expansion of bank credit. Figure 2 shows how dramatically bank and central bank credit have expanded over time.

  

  M3 is the US’s broadest measure of currency and has expanded nearly seventy times since 1960. Since 1971 when Bretton Woods was suspended, the expansion has been 34 times, while the US population increased by just under 59%. The average of all bank liabilities therefore rose from $2,881 per head of population to $61,562. The subtle point is that they are not to be regarded as currency owed to depositors, but debt owed by the banking system to the public.

  But banks are not the only source of debt. Capital markets create further debt obligations through the recycling of bank deposits. Let’s say that a corporation raises a billion-dollar loan in the capital markets. Subscribers for the loan draw down on their bank deposit balances to transfer them to the agent’s bank for transmission to the corporation’s deposit account with its own bank. In the process, some banks will see net withdrawals while others will see net deposits. The differences are ironed out through wholesale money markets, which operate as a centralised clearing system, so that commercial banks individually are always in balance. Consequently, the fund-raising corporation has a debt facilitated through the banking system but owed directly to investors. Governments and financial borrowers do most of their funding in this manner, and while the US banks owe their customers an indicated (M3) $20.5 trillion, the total of private sector and government debt is estimated to be more than a further $70 trillion. Altogether, including bank obligations US debt is approaching $100 trillion (see Figure 4 below). And that’s before we account for shadow banking.

  Micawber would have a fit — but it’s only paper.

  The history of credit expansion

  Banking has worked in this manner since London’s goldsmiths began to operate as lenders against deposited specie during the English Civil War (1642—1651). To pay the 6% interest common at the time depositors recognised that goldsmiths would have to take in deposits as their own property to be able to earn the interest by trading with it as they saw fit. Under this agreement they were not trustees of the money, but its proprietors, and therefore they received it as bankers.

  Naturally, the funds deposited bore little relationship to the goldsmiths’ own capital and they quickly learned that depositors were unlikely to demand their funds returned to them all at once. Therefore, goldsmiths and the bankers that they evolved into were able to multiply their liabilities to pay on demand and keep sufficient liquidity to ensure immediate payment of all claims likely to be demanded at any one time.

  This was fine, so long as trading in currency and credit progressed with a reasonable degree of stability. But when the quantity of credit expanded more rapidly, typically under the influence of undue lending optimism, it led to a liquidity crisis; an event that through the nineteenth century was recorded every ten years or so and is approximately still the pattern in recent times.

  It is that instability which matters in our efforts to divine future trading conditions. Figure 2 above shows the rapid expansion of US dollar money and bank credit culminating at an annualised 25% rate which has taken place since March 2020. That much of this expansion of deposits originated at the central bank is immaterial.

  The change that we have seen since the 1980s is that the expansion of credit has increasingly shifted from non-financial borrowers to financing purely financial activities. This does not invalidate systemic risk from lending cycles; rather, it alters its character. Lending to customers to speculate in financial assets while taking in those assets as loan collateral is one example of how this risk is likely to materialise, which when interest rates increase — the inevitable consequence of a prior increase in circulating currency — will force bankers to liquidate loans to protect their own capital.

  Figure 3 shows the recent level of investor leverage, which at the end of July stood at $844bn, which represents the initial margin calls that will occur in a market downturn.

  

  Another aspect of the current situation stems from the leverage given to capital issues of debt outside the banking system by the increase in bank deposits. Figure 4 below shows the summation of bonds and bank credit. Including bank credit, total US dollar debt will shortly exceed $100 trillion if it hasn’t already.

  

  Debt is not a problem so long as it is productive, and overall it increases at a stable rate. Neither is true today. Private sector debt is increasingly used for ephemeral consumption and to prop up zombie corporations and their malinvestments. Government debt is rapidly increasing on the back of escalating statist social responsibilities and self-serving cheap borrowing costs. A projection of debt levels into the future is unlikely to see any diminution of the pace of its increase, with a further acceleration appearing to be more likely. And this is only the on-balance sheet evidence.

  Shadow banking

  Banking and debt statistics exclude shadow banking — including but by no means limited to non-bank mortgage lending, leveraged lending, student lending and some consumer lending (according to Jamie Dimon in his 2019 annual letter to JPMorgan Chase’s shareholders) for which there are no reliable estimates. A figure of $52 trillion in 2018 has been suggested in the media.

  Shadow banking refers to financial businesses that are not regulated as conventional banks and which originate or act as intermediaries in lending money, such as payday lenders, hedge funds, insurance companies, asset managers, credit card providers, payment systems, mortgage servicers, and even auctioneers who make loans to wealthy clients. More recently we can add stablecoins. It is not clear to what extent shadow banking is funded by entities acting as agents for regulated banks and as arrangers of securitisations, such as the creation and funding of mortgage-backed securities. But it seems likely that significant quantities of shadow funding originate from credit additional to that recorded in licenced banks. A clear illustration would be the issuer of the stablecoin Tether, which runs a balance sheet similar to a central bank, with assets on one side and stablecoin currency tokens, nominally tied to the dollar by being the counterpart to dollar-denominated assets, as liabilities on the other.

  The Financial Stability Board (a subset of the Bank for International Settlements) now uses the term non-bank financial intermediation as a substitute for shadow banking. The FSB’s last estimate of perhaps the most relevant category, other financial institutions’ (OFIs), in the US was estimated by the FSB to have assets of $30 trillion in 2018. We can reasonably add this to the $100 trillion of the outstanding currency and debt liabilities recorded in Figure 4, without allowing for any further growth in the last few years.

  As a footnote, it is worth recording that financial leverage in some OFI categories can be extreme, imparting extra unaccounted systemic risk to the financial system. And in his letter to JPMorgan Chase shareholders referred to above, Dimon pointed out that when the next downturn begins, “Banks will be constrained — both psychologically and by new regulations — from lending freely into the marketplace, as many of us did in 2008 and 2009. New regulations mean that banks will have to retain liquidity going into a downturn, be prepared for the impacts of even tougher stress tests and hold more capital…. In the next financial crisis, JPMorgan Chase will simply be unable to take some of the actions we took in 2008…

  It is alarming to think that the Fed’s reliance on commercial banks pulling together to prevent a financial crisis bankrupting financial and non-financial businesses, such as was dramatically achieved following the Lehman failure, will not be available to central banks today due to tighter regulations. To further illustrate the point, Dimon might add today that the risk weighted asset provisions of Basel 3, due to apply from 2023 will require banks to increase their equity capital even more; or alternatively, reduce their balance sheet exposure.

  In summary, quantifying shadow banking in the context of additional debt and currency to that recorded officially is like trying to nail a jelly to the wall. But there is no doubt that the figure is substantial and there are systemic risks in the sector in addition to the official banking system. And even on a conservative assumption, in the US it is 50% larger than regulated banking activities.

  The inevitability of rising interest rates

  The consequences for the purchasing power of an accelerating rate of inflation of credit and currency are manifest in rising commodity prices, rising manufacturing price inputs and rising consumer prices themselves. The US’s official CPI has risen by 5.4% over the last year, and despite the fervent hopes of the Fed’s FOMC members shows no sign of abating. Shadowstats calculates the true increase at 13.4%.

  In truth, changes in the general price level cannot be calculated, being no more than a concept. But what we can say is that the purchasing power of the dollar is probably falling at a rate faster than 10% annualised, and given the continuing inflation of credit, it is unlikely to stabilise in the foreseeable future. If the Fed is unable to raise interest rates sufficiently to stem it, the rate of decline for the dollar in terms of its purchasing power is likely to accelerate. In short, interest rates are bound to rise by more than a trivial amount.

  Instead of facing this reality, the Fed is dismissing rising prices by claiming that they are due to temporary factors. Furthermore, there are now signs that the US and other economies are either stalling or slowing after an initial bounce, which encourages central bankers to hope that pressure for prices to rise further will subside. But on examination it is an argument that barely holds water.

  Behind the error is a belief that price rises are predominantly caused by increasing demand, and that overall demand has been temporarily boosted by the ending of coronavirus lockdowns at a time of supply disruption. But there is an inconvenient truth to consider. Possibly other than some short-term countertrend effects, there is no recorded instance of a substantial monetary debasement that has not led to significantly higher prices, particularly for essentials such as food and energy, while at the same time economic activity enters a significant downturn. The reason is simple: currency debasement transfers wealth, and therefore buying power in real terms, from its users to the issuer, impoverishing the former and benefiting the latter. Everyone with a salary and savings suffers a reduction in their real values, while the state and the early receivers of the newly-issued currency get the benefit.

  Therefore, driven by a falling purchasing power for the currency on the back of an inflation of its quantity, we will either see a further substantial fall in the dollar’s purchasing power, fully reflecting its dilution, or we will see a rise in interest rates which may or may not be sufficient to encourage holders not to dispose of the currency immediately. The group most likely to dump the dollar first is foreign holders, who currently hold dollar deposits and financial assets totalling over $30 trillion. But the foreigners’ problem is that with all fiat currencies tied to the dollar as their reserve currency, there is no alternative sounder currency in exchange. Consequently, the loss of all currencies’ purchasing power will be reflected in commodity prices and the prices of everything else.

  Driven by neo-Keynesian beliefs, central banks will be conflicted between maintaining easy monetary policies to support economic activity, and raising interest rates to combat rising prices by supporting their currencies. The history of similar instances tells us that they are likely to err in favour of suppressing interest rates, and even supporting price controls rather than raising interest rates sufficiently. It is not because the monetary authorities necessarily believe in these measures — it’s just they will see no alternative.

  There is bound to come a point where the monetary authorities lose control over interest rates, and if it has not yet occurred by then, control over markets themselves. They will then find it increasingly difficult to fund government budget deficits. And with the outlook being for ever higher prices, despite price controls (if they are introduced) the pressure for financial asset values to decline will be set to overwhelm all attempts by the authorities to support them. There is no doubt that bonds and equities are in a bubble to end all bubbles, priced based on zero, and in many cases negative interest rates. Never in the course of financial history has a bubble burst on such excessive valuations.

  Returning to the dollar, if Shadowstats estimate of price inflation at over 13% is correct, then the recognition of the true loss of the dollar’s purchasing power in the domestic economy will be that all financial assets are horribly mispriced as well. The reality will then dawn on market participants about the true state of government finances. In America, net interest will rise from the CBO’s estimate of $331bn to close to a trillion and then two the following year, because of the relatively short-term average maturity profile of USG debt.

  Tapering QE will not be possible

  As if to illustrate the confusion on Wall Street and in the FOMC, there is talk of introducing a taper of quantitative easing in the fourth quarter of this year or early in 2022. But other than reflecting zero interest rates, the reason markets are at current levels of overvaluation is because of the monthly injection of $120bn QE into pension funds and insurance companies in return for government and agency debt. They invest the cash in riskier bonds and equities. Any attempt by the Fed to ween them off this monthly injection will make markets fall, something which the authorities have been keen to avoid. There can only be one of two conclusions: either the FOMC members do not understand the true purpose of QE (which is unlikely) or they are bluffing. The bluff must be to pretend that economic conditions have improved enough to support markets without as much as $120bn monthly being injected into them, without any actual intention of tapering.

  More realistically, when the interest rate outlook clarifies into one where the risk is of significant increases, the Fed may be forced into increasing QE substantially to support equities and ensure bond yields remain suppressed.

  The fates of financial assets and fiat currencies are joined at the hip

  In this article, we have seen that all currency is the result of credit expansion either by the central bank or by the banking system. And to the latter, we must add the shadow banks who similarly create credit with matching deposit entitlements. We have focused on the dollar because it is the reserve currency. But all other currencies have the same fiat characteristics and none of them have a sound money alternative underpinning them or available to the public in the form of gold coin.

  We have noted that financial assets owe their current valuations to zero or even negative rates, and that prices are further supported by QE, which in the US at $120bn every month amounts to nearly two trillion dollars since March 2020. Some other jurisdictions have aggressive QE programmes, notably the Japanese, but it is the US that matters because global capital markets take their cue from those of the US.

  At some stage soon, due to imminently rising interest rates and/or a further acceleration in the declining purchasing power of the dollar, financial asset values are bound to face a sharp contraction. The one topic we haven’t explored is the relationship between falling asset values and their effect on the fiat currency.

  In the initial stages of a market bubble bursting, there is a dash for cash. Investors will try to rescue what they can by selling, and we can be certain that the lenders providing margin loans will be calling them in and causing further selling. We can therefore expect a currency to remain steady, perhaps rising slightly on the foreign exchanges (depending on the counter-acting degree of foreign liquidation) while bond yields begin to rise, and stock prices fall.

  We then enter a second phase, when banks begin to call in loans more widely, because collateral values have fallen, and loans not related to market speculation are no longer secured. Both the asset and liability sides of bank balance sheets will contract through a combination of non-performing loans being written off and loans being successfully called in. Dollar debt, totalling at our estimate as much as $130 trillion will be under threat for all holders of it, and their losses will be substantial. And for those with debt obligations, who for too long have become accustomed to very low, suppressed bond yields, their economic calculations will have become seriously undermined.

  The response from central banks can only be to rapidly increase their balance sheets to compensate for the losses in the commercial banks, flooding the financial system with extra deposits to bolster bank reserves. It will take many trillions of dollars to stabilise a tottering $130 trillion mountain of debt and its matching credit, and the equivalent task for central banks managing all the other major currencies, to stop the global banking system from going under. The collapse in the purchasing power of all currencies will then resume with a vengeance, because attempts to stop bank credit and deposits liquidating into a black hole of currency destruction can only accelerate.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 23:30

• Fed's Jackson Hole Meeting Takes Place In The Country's Wealthiest County
  Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting Takes Place In The Country’s Wealthiest County

  What better place for the Fed to have their annual company picnic than at the apex of the country’s wealth inequality gap?

  That’s exactly what they’ll be doing when they meet at Jackson Hole next week. It is located in Teton County, which has the “nation’s highest per-capita income from assets”, according to Bloomberg.

  How fitting.

  A study by the Economic Innovation Group points out that Jackson Hole has attracted the “ultra-rich” in recent years and that the “gap between counties with the lowest and highest asset income per capita rose sixfold between 1990 and 2019”.

  The study looked specifically at “income from assets”, which excludes wages and government assistance. This category of wealth has skyrocketed in places like New York City and the San Francisco Bay Area.

  In Manhattan, for example, asset income per capita of about $64,200 is 13 times that in the Bronx, the report notes. 

  

  The county with the lowest asset income per capita is in South Dakota. Coming in at $2,800 per person, the number is about just 33% of the nationwide average. 

  Kenan Fikri, research director at EIG, commented: “I was pretty shocked that so much of the country has derived so little benefit from the boom in asset prices and asset values that we’ve seen over the past couple of decades.”

  People with large assets bases are disproportionately the beneficiaries of Fed policy, while those working a normal 9-5 are left brutalized by the inflation the Fed leaves in its wake.

  Only 15% of households own stocks and about 13% of households own business equity or a second residential property.

  Fikri concluded that even though “the condition of being poor today is better than it was in 1970,” some still don’t have access to “avenues for wealth creation.”

  We can’t wait to see what new techniques the Fed comes up with for prying the wealth gap open even further after their meeting next. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 23:00

• Assange Described A Decade Ago How 'Endless' Afghan War Was Engineered By "Transnational Security Elite"
  Assange Described A Decade Ago How ‘Endless’ Afghan War Was Engineered By “Transnational Security Elite”

  Authored by Jessica Corbett via Common Dreams & Consortium News,

  As the hawks who have been lying about the US invasion and occupation of Afghanistan for two decades continue to peddle fantasies in the midst of a Taliban takeover and American evacuation of Kabul, progressive critics on Tuesday reminded the world who has benefited from the “endless war.” “Entrenching U.S. forces in Afghanistan was the military-industrial complex’s business plan for 20+ years,” declared the Washington, D.C.-based advocacy group Public Citizen.

  Julian Assange speaking in 2011: “The goal is to use Afghanistan to wash money out of the tax bases of the US and Europe through Afghanistan and back into the hands of a transnational security elite. The goal is an endless war, not a successful war” #Afghanistan pic.twitter.com/Hg3qVzABBg

  — WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) August 18, 2021

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  “Hawks and defense contractors co-opted the needs of the Afghan people in order to line their own pockets,” the group added. “Never has it been more important to end war profiteering.”

  In a Tuesday morning tweet, Public Citizen highlighted returns on defense stocks over the past 20 years — as calculated in a “jaw-dropping” analysis by The Intercept — and asserted that “the military-industrial complex got exactly what it wanted out of this war.”

  The Intercept‘s Jon Schwarz examined returns on stocks of the five biggest defense contractors: Boeing, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics.

  Schwarz found that a $10,000 investment in stock evenly split across those five companies on the day in 2001 that then-President Georg W. Bush signed the authorization preceding the US invasion would be worth $97,295 this week, not adjusted for inflation, taxes, or fees.

  

  According to The Intercept:

  “This is a far greater return than was available in the overall stock market over the same period. $10,000 invested in an S&P 500 index fund on September 18, 2001, would now be worth $61,613.

  That is, defense stocks outperformed the stock market overall by 58% during the Afghanistan War.”

  “These numbers suggest that it is incorrect to conclude that the Taliban’s immediate takeover of Afghanistan upon the U.S.’s departure means that the Afghanistan War was a failure,” Schwarz added. “On the contrary, from the perspective of some of the most powerful people in the U.S., it may have been an extraordinary success. Notably, the boards of directors of all five defense contractors include retired top-level military officers.”

  “War profiteering isn’t new,” journalist Dina Sayedahmed said in response to the reporting, “but seeing the numbers on it is staggering.” Progressive political commentator and podcast host Krystal Ball used Schwarz’s findings to counter a key argument that’s been widely used to justify nearly 20 years of war.

  “This is what it was really all about people,” she tweeted of the defense contractors’ returns. “Anyone who believes we were in Afghanistan to help women and girls is a liar or a fool.”

  Jack Mirkinson wrote Monday for Discourse Blog that “it is unquestionably heartbreaking to think about what the Taliban might inflict on women and girls, but let us dispense with this fantasy that the U.S. has been in Afghanistan to support women, or to build democracy, or to strengthen Afghan institutions, or any of the other lines that are deployed whenever someone has the temerity to suggest that endless war and occupation is a harmful thing.”

  pic.twitter.com/xHj6Ssq46Z

  — Public Citizen (@Public_Citizen) August 17, 2021

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  “We did not go into Afghanistan to support its people, and we did not stay in Afghanistan to support its people,” he added. “It is astonishing, given what we know about the monsters that the U.S. has propped up time and time againaround the world, that the myth persists that we do anything out of our love for human rights. We went in and we stayed in for the same reason: the American empire is a force that must remain in perpetual motion.”

  As Common Dreams reported Monday, while the Taliban has retaken control, anti-war advocates have argued diplomacy is the only path to long-term peace, with Project South’s Azadeh Shahshahani emphasizing that “the only ones who benefited from the U.S. war on Afghanistan were war-profiteering politicians and corporations while countless lives were destroyed.”

  Responding to Shahshahani’s tweet about who has benefited from two decades of bloodshed, Zack Kopplin of the Government Accountability Project wrote, “Adding war-profiteering generals to the mix too.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 22:30

• School Board Recall Attempts Surge in 2021 Amid COVID Closures & CRT Fears
  School Board Recall Attempts Surge in 2021 Amid COVID Closures & CRT Fears

  As summer enters the final stretch and the fall school year is about to begin, the supposed quietest part of the year has been anything but for school boards across the country, according to Ballotpedia.

  School board recalls, the process of removing a member or members of a school board from office through a petitioned election, have surged this summer to record-highs as schools are caught in the crosshairs of culture wars. 

  Many issues have parents across the country in an uproar, such as critical race theory (CRT), virus restrictions, and transgender rights. School officials have found themselves bombarded by angry parents who say CRT is poisoning the minds of their kids. In response, school board recall efforts are sweeping the country. 

  So far, 58 recall efforts against 144 board members have taken place in 2021, a record high dating back to 2009. 

  

  Ballotpedia lists most of the recall efforts as “underway.” Some have been followed by “did not go to vote.” Only one school board member has been removed this year. Here’s a partial list: 

  

  The table provides a breakdown of how many officials were targeted and recalled and includes the recall success rate for each year. This year’s rate has yet to be determined. 

  

  The growing trend in recall efforts is expected to increase as grassroots efforts by parents and teachers are popping up all across the country. They are absolutely sick of school boards pushing a politicized curriculum that is dividing the county. 

  A non-partisan effort to recall the Loudoun County School Board in Ashburn, Virginia, called “Fight For Schools” is underway. 

  

  Even teachers have had enough of the liberal’s force-feeding children garbage at their most critical learning stages in life. 

  Here’s a Loudoun teacher quitting in front of the school board because she doesn’t believe in CRT. 

  A woman who says she’s a Loudoun County teacher just broke into tears addressing the school board saying she would not honor the transgender pronoun policy because of her faith and she told the board she was quitting her job, right there on the spot. @nbcwashington pic.twitter.com/GTPa2C0Twz

  — Drew Wilder (@DrewWilderTV) August 11, 2021

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  Here’s another recall to replace the school board of Fairfax County Public Schools. 

  

  Ballotpedia shows the hotbed for recalls is California, with over 22 this year. 

  

  Besides CRT, parents are also up in arms about virus restrictions at schools. Listen to this San Diegonian parent who spits truth bombs about COVID to the local school board. 

  People are getting it. pic.twitter.com/T6b7ILWfQy

  — Quoth the Raven (@QTRResearch) August 18, 2021

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  This parent is furious. 

  Amen, dude. pic.twitter.com/EDTB0P0cGu

  — Lenny Dykstra (@LennyDykstra) August 18, 2021

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  While most recalls are underway, some have failed. However, the trend appears to be growing as parents wake up to the liberal madness of CRT being embedded into curriculums and how it’s poisoning the youth’s minds by advocating for more division.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 22:00

• Snyder: What Is America Going To Look Like If This Continues?
  Snyder: What Is America Going To Look Like If This Continues?

  Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

  You can’t have a civilization without civility.  We may possess technology that is more advanced than any previous generation of Americans has had, but when it comes to how we treat one another and how we conduct ourselves, we are the worst generation in U.S. history by a very wide margin.  We have truly become a “Hollywood culture”, and I don’t mean that in a good way.  The average American spends 238 minutes a day watching television, and it is inevitable that putting so much garbage into our minds is going to result in garbage coming out.  Most Americans learn how to express themselves by emulating what they see on their screens, and so now we have tens of millions of extremely crude people running around all over the place.

  

  If you spend any time in public at all, you know exactly what I am talking about.  Most Americans dress like slobs, act like pigs and endlessly spew profanity wherever they go.

  This is something that Mark H. Creech discussed in an article that he published this week…

  While at the grocery store this week, a woman was ahead of me in the checkout line using the word, “Mother F&*#@%.” To the left of me, in another line, was a different woman on her cell phone. I could overhear her saying to someone, “F&$#” this, and “F*#@” that. I felt that I was drowning in a cesspool of profanity.

  Recently, my wife said she was in the checkout line at Walmart, and a man was using such language without any inhibitions. Not being the kind of person to hold back, Kim said to him, “Sir, would you please not use that language? There are children present.” To which the man defiantly replied, “No!” His companion then backhanded him on the arm and said to, “Cut it out.” That was the end of it.

  Sadly, it has gotten to a point where even our national leaders are not afraid to use profanity.

  Earlier this week, it was being reported that Kamala Harris used profanity while engaged in a heated discussion about the crisis in Afghanistan…

  Vice President Kamala Harris reportedly refused to stand alongside Joe Biden as he addressed the nation on the Afghanistan chaos, allegedly saying “you will not pin this shit on me” despite her massive role in Biden’s US troop withdrawal decision.

  Before Biden gave an 18 minute speech to justify his decision to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan as the Taliban took over the country, Kamala Harris reportedly refused to stand alongside him as he spoke. “You will not pin this shit on me,” Harris reportedly said. However in April, Harris had bragged that she played a key role in Biden’s decision to withdraw, as was reported by Politico. She even confirmed that she was the last person in the room with the President during the major discussion regarding his decision to pull out US troops by September 11.

  And profane language that Joe Biden once used about Afghanistan received renewed attention this week because of the drama unfolding in Kabul…

  According to Holbrooke, when Biden was asked about America’s obligation to maintain their presence in Afghanistan to protect vulnerable civilians, he scornfully replied by referencing the US exit from southeast Asia in 1973.

  ‘**** that, we don’t have to worry about that. We did it in Vietnam, Nixon and Kissinger got away with it.’

  Of course foul language is not just limited to one side of the aisle.

  Our leaders like to consider themselves the pinnacle of civilization, and they have often criticized the Taliban for tearing down historical statues and forcing women to wear masks.

  But over the past year, far more statues have been torn down inside the United States than the Taliban ever dreamed of tearing down, and at this point we are forcing everyone to wear masks.

  Critics say that the Taliban does not allow freedom of speech, but when Taliban officials were asked about this they simply pointed out that Facebook is even worse when it comes to freedom of speech.

  And they are right.

  Critics say that the Taliban treats women horribly, and that is certainly true.

  But women are treated shamefully in our nation too.  Here is one example…

  A creep groped a woman on a Brooklyn street this week — and then pummeled her when she tried to fight back, disturbing new video shows.

  The 26-year-old woman was walking at the corner of South 4th Street and Havemeyer Street in Williamsburg around 2:15 a.m. Saturday when a stranger approached from behind and grabbed her buttocks, video released by cops early Tuesday shows.

  When the woman attempted to slap the suspect, he socked her in the face multiple times, the clip shows.

  And here is another example…

  The woman and her boyfriend were on their way to the Chicago Transit Authority Red Line subway at State Street and Jackson Boulevard Saturday night. They were waiting for the elevator at ground level to go down to the platform.

  But they never made it. Instead, trouble found them, surrounded them, and attacked them.

  They were viciously assaulted by a large gang of teens, and the woman was pummeled so badly that she actually needs plastic surgery…

  “I need plastic surgery, because the bones are broke, and still bleeding inside,” the woman said.

  The scars and bruising are concealed behind the shades the woman now wears over her eyes. But the pain is deeper.

  Murder rates were way up all over the country last year, and they are way up again all over the country this year.

  We have become a brutal, violent, blood-soaked country, and that is because we have a brutal, violent, blood-soaked culture.

  At one time the U.S. could lecture the rest of the world about morality because we lived in a civilized society.  But now we have lost whatever moral high ground we once possessed, and at this point we need the rest of the world to lecture us.

  So what is going to happen as the thin veneer of civilization that we all take for granted on a daily basis continues to steadily disappear? 

  I am deeply, deeply concerned about our future, and this is a theme that I explored in my new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse”. 

  We are in a highly advanced state of social decay, and it is getting worse with each passing year.

  In recent days, I have heard so much criticism of the Taliban’s culture, and many of those criticisms are right on target.

  But our culture is detestable too, and it has become that way because of the choices that we have made as a society.

  *  *  *

  It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 21:30

• Coast Guard Declares "Port Condition Zulu" Across SE New England Ahead Of Hurricane
  Coast Guard Declares “Port Condition Zulu” Across SE New England Ahead Of Hurricane

  Update (2118ET): The Northeast is bracing for the arrival of Hurricane Henri, which is expected to make landfall on Long Island or in southern New England on Sunday afternoon. 

  

  Ahead of Henri’s arrival, the Coast Guard has released a statement declaring “Hurricane Condition ZULU” in the entire southeastern New England region, including Narragansett Bay, Mount Hope Bay, Buzzards Bay, Cape Cod Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound.

  Sustained gale force winds from Hurricane Henri are expected to make landfall in Southeastern New England within 12 hours. Effective at 8 p.m., Saturday, Hurricane Condition ZULU is set for all ports in the entire southeastern New England region, including Narragansett Bay, Mount Hope Bay, Buzzards Bay, Cape Cod Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound.

  This port condition is a change from the previous condition of YANKEE.

  Coast Guard Sector Southeastern New England Captain of the Port, Capt. Clinton J. Prindle, has established a safety zone for the Port of Narragansett, Mount Hope, Buzzards Bay, and Cape Cod Bay. No vessels may enter or transit within this safety zone without the permission of the COTP. All vessel movements and all waterfront operations are prohibited while port condition ZULU is in effect. -Coast Guard 

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  Hurricane Condition ZULU means that all vessels are prohibited from entering the areas described above because of hurricane conditions.

  *  *  *

  Update (1045ET): Henri has officially been upgraded to a hurricane.

  

  *  *  *

  Hurricane warnings have been issued across the Northeast as millions of people prepare for Tropical Storm Henri slated to become a hurricane Saturday afternoon and make landfall late Sunday. 

  The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) latest update indicates “Air Force and Noaa Hurricane Hunters,” special aircraft that monitor tropical cyclones, are investigating Henri as it moves up the East Coast with sustained 70 mph winds. 

  NHC warned: “A Dangerous Storm Surge, Hurricane Conditions, and Flooding Rainfall Expected in Portions of the Northeast United States Beginning Late Tonight Or Early Sunday.” 

  Henri’s impact is expected to be broad and span from New York City and Long Island to New England. Readers may recall, last week, in a weather note titled “Is A Hurricane Headed For New England?” we highlighted the fact that Henri would likely be upgraded to a hurricane and strike the “New England coastline.” 

  If Henri hits New England, it would be the first time in three decades since Hurricane Bob hit the state in 1991. 

  NHC has posted hurricane warnings for more than four million people across the south shore of Long Island, from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point, the north shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point as well as from New Haven, Connecticut, to the west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island.

  Bloomberg’s weather models forecast Henri to make landfall around 1800 ET Sunday between Riverhead and Southold Long Island. 

  

  “One potential hazard is HEAVY RAIN, which may lead to considerable flash flooding between northern New Jersey and New England on Sunday and Monday,” the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center tweeted. 

   A storm surge of 3-5 feet is forecasted on Sunday from Chatham, Massachusetts, to Mastic Beach, New York. New England and southeast New York could see 3-6 inches through Monday, with isolated areas totaling 10 inches. 

  What’s concerning are multiple nuclear power plants located in Henri’s cone of uncertainty. Millstone Nuclear Power Station in Connecticut should be closely watched as the storm progresses through the weekend. 

  

  Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont has declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm’s landfall. He told residents to shelter in place between Sunday and Monday morning. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 21:18

• LA Times Dubs CA Recall Frontrunner Larry Elder "The Black Face Of White Supremacy"
  LA Times Dubs CA Recall Frontrunner Larry Elder “The Black Face Of White Supremacy”

  If you’re looking for proof positive that Larry Elder is making progress toward winning California’s recall election, look no further than the LA Times.

  The paper published a column on Friday claiming that longtime conservative, Fox News contributor and syndicated talk radio host Elder “is the Black face of white supremacy”.

  Columnist Erika D. Smith wrote: “Few things infuriate me more than watching a Black person use willful blindness and cherry-picked facts to make overly simplistic arguments that whitewash the complex problems that come along with being Black in America.”

  Despite ostensibly representing the political party of equality and being anti-racist, Smith’s arguments against Elder seemed to mostly focus on his race: “Like a lot of Black people, though, I’ve learned that it’s often best just to ignore people like Elder. People who are — as my dad used to say — skin folk, but not necessarily kin folk.”

  

  Melina Abdullah, cofounder of Black Lives Matter Los Angeles, even chimed in: “He is a danger, a clear and present danger.”

  Abdullah continued: “Anytime you put a Black face on white supremacy, which is what Larry Elder is, there are people who will utilize that as an opportunity to deny white supremacy. They say, ‘How could this be white supremacy? This is a Black man.’ But everything that he’s pushing, everything that he stands for, he is advancing white supremacy.”

  So, we guess not all Black Lives Matter, then?

  Earl Ofari Hutchinson, a political analyst and author, made the most astute observation, despite likely trying to argue a different point: “The only positive I see in an Elder candidacy is that it is yet another wake-up call for Democrats, in California and nationally, to not take Black and people of color’s votes and support for granted.”

  Elder seemed to take the jab in jest this weekend, Tweeting: “You’ve got to be real scared and desperate to play the race card against the brother from South Central.”

  In today’s LA Times.
  You’ve got to be real scared and desperate to play the race card against the brother from South Central. pic.twitter.com/pqZIujKxPD

  — Larry Elder (@larryelder) August 20, 2021

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  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 21:00

• Pentagon Confirms Americans Have Been Beaten In Afghanistan
  Pentagon Confirms Americans Have Been Beaten In Afghanistan

  By Zachary Stieber of Epoch Times

  

  Americans have been beaten in Afghanistan, a U.S. military official said Saturday. A day after he said the military was aware of reports that Americans were beaten by Taliban terrorists, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said that “we know of a small number of cases where some Americans … have been harassed, and in some cases, beaten.”

  “We don’t believe it’s a very large number, and most Americans who have their credentials with them are being allowed through the Taliban checkpoints,” he added.

  The stunning admission came as the U.S. Embassy warned Americans against traveling to the U.S.-held airport in Kabul, where thousands of people are trying to enter to escape the country before American troops leave.

  The United States is openly working with the Taliban to facilitate the evacuation, and Taliban militants control all of the ground around the exterior of the airport. President Joe Biden said Friday that the United States was in “constant communication” with the Taliban, which is designated as a terrorist group by a number of countries.

  The U.S. military has largely chosen not to conduct operations outside the airport, leaving Americans and Afghans to fend for themselves until they reach the facility.

  Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told members of Congress in a call Friday that violence against Americans “is unacceptable,” Kirby said Saturday.And U.S. commanders have conveyed the same message to Taliban commanders, he said.

  “We’ve been in touch with the Taliban for quite some time, I think, over the course of the last week. And we’ve certainly made our concerns known,” Kirby said.

  According to the military spokesman, word had not filtered down from Taliban leadership to every individual militant.

  “What appears to be happening is that not every Taliban fighter either got the word or decided to obey the word,” he said.

  The revelation came as a growing number of Republicans called for more decisive action from the Biden administration, which both parties have said has botched the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

  “Instead of going out there and making the Taliban our hostages, right now America is on day seven, day eight of the Afghanistan hostage crisis for us,” Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.), a military veteran, said on Fox News on Friday. “And until we flip that scenario back to where it was prior to this, we can’t safely get our people out.”

  “Biden’s failed Afghanistan withdrawal has put thousands of American lives in danger behind enemy lines,” added Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who is trying to impeach Biden, on Twitter on Saturday. “The Taliban is beating Americans but Biden is still relying on & trusting them. He is incompetent, unhinged, incoherent & unfit.”

  Military officials said the focus remains on keeping the airport secure and evacuating people who can make it there.

  “The military mission that we are executing now is a noncombatant evacuation operation,” Kirby said. “We’re fighting against both time and space. That’s the race that we’re in right now,” he added later.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 20:30

• Beware An "Instability Cascade": One Bank Warns That Stocks Are About To Hit Record Fragility
  Beware An “Instability Cascade”: One Bank Warns That Stocks Are About To Hit Record Fragility

  Back in late 2017, Bank of America’s derivatives strategists made a remarkable, if hardly original, observation – the bank said what everyone knew but was afraid to voice namely, that “In Every Market Shock Since 2013 Central Banks Have Stepped In To Protect Markets.”

  

  Since then, the market’s Pavlovian response to unconditional central bank intervention has gotten so embedded in the collective trader psyche that neither fundamentals, nor adverse news matter any more as everyone is convinced that central banks will step in the moment there is another dip in risk assets. In fact, on Friday another BofA strategist, Michael Hartnett, wrote that in the past 18 months “the Fed has bought $4 trillion bonds, twice the amount the US spent on War in Afghanistan past 20 years as it, and other global central banks, have spent $834 million every hour buying bonds since COVID.” Add to this that the US government has spent $875 million every hour in ’21 and one gets a staggering number of $1.7 billion spent between central banks and the US government to prevent even a modest market correction.

  As Hartnett put it, “little wonder everyone believes in TINA & BTD.”

  Little doubt indeed, and that’s why we now live in a world where a 1% “drop” in the market is considered a biddable dip.

  There is just one problem with this Pavlovian approach to “investing” in manipulated markets: as Bank of America also explained back in 2017, indiscriminate dip-buying leads to unprecedented fragility and risks of a crash so powerful not even the Fed will be able to reverse it.

  Incidentally, that was the subtext of observations published yesterday by Goldman’s derivatives strategist Rocky Fishman who observed several increasingly alarming trends in the options market, most notably the gaping chasm that has opened between realized and implied vol, not just spot by 1 year forward. As Fishman noted, “the one-year VIX index has risen to 26 — close to the top of its Q2/Q3 range, well above spot, though below its Q1 median of 28.” As Fishman noted, “since 1940, the only times the S&P 500 has had realized volatility well above 26 for a full year have been around the 1987 crash, the GFC, and the coronavirus crisis.” This means that, all else equal, while stocks may be levitating ever higher on ever lower volumes and ever shrinking breadth, the options market is preparing for a crash similar to those observed on Black Monday, the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid Crash, which wiped out a third of market cap in days.

  Of course, one wouldn’t know this by looking just at the S&P500 which on Friday again closed just a hair away below its all time high.

  Which brings us back to the topic of market fragility, initially popularized by BofA back in 2017 and one which the bank’s derivatives team addressed again last week, noting that after the latest ramp higher which is on the verge of breaking core records, “history suggests caution against this calm backdrop, as similar periods of extremely steady grinds higher have preceded large fragility shocks.”

  As BofA’s Benjamin Bowler writes, echoing many of the same observations made by Goldman’s Rocky Fishman, “swelling taper talk and the rise of the Delta variant have failed to make a meaningful mark this summer on the US equity market, which continues its steady drift higher at low realized vol.” To demonstrate this point, in the chart below Bowler and team show that the S&P has now gone 200 trading days (it was 196 as of Monday) without a 5% pullback, making this the 5th longest streak in 50yrs. Notably, in the post-GFC era, the two previous such streaks both ended in the “large fragility events” of the Aug 2015 yuan devaluation and the Feb 2018 Volmageddon.

  

  Meanwhile, underscoring the complacency in the market, the index is on track to a near-record number of all-time highs in 2021.

  

  Expanding this analysis from stocks to balanced portfolios, BofA notes that the two largest fragility shocks in the history of 60/40 portfolios – Feb-18 and Mar-20 – were both preceded by near record risk-adjusted returns, similar to what we are seeing today, “suggesting momentum chasing and depressed volatility are two of the key drivers of today’s fragile markets.” Needless to say, while implied vol may be a somewhat elevated, realized vol is near record lows while momentum chasing… well, just take one look at what happens to any meme stock du jour.

  

  The bottom line, as Bank of America concludes is that “history suggests caution against this calm backdrop, as similar periods of extremely steady grinds higher have preceded large fragility shocks.” Echoing what he wrote 4 years ago, Bowler repeats the most important mantra of modern markets, namely that “stability breeds fragility, particularly when (i) the stability is grounded in the tight grip of central banks, who force investors into low-conviction, momentum-driven positions, and (ii) those central banks turn less accommodative, a prospect that is now upon US investors.”

  Bowler’s advice: watch Jackson Hole (26-Aug), August payrolls (3-Sep), and the 22-Sep FOMC meeting for potential risk off catalysts, although as the BofA strategist warns “fragility can also be triggered by seemingly innocuous events” when they reach a point of peak  instability, triggering a liquidation cascade.

  Our only counterargument here is that even, or rather especially if, stocks indeed crumble as the market instability finally manifests itself into a selloff, the most likely outcome is that the Fed will step in even more forcefully, with many expecting that Powell will buy single stocks and equity ETFs during the next crisis, and thus refuse to sell expecting an even bigger bounce after the next Fed bailout. And since the Fed has now staked its entire reputation on not allowing what was once a market and is now merely a policy vehicle to give the impression that all is well, to crash ever again, these cynical skeptics are likely right inexpecting an even more powerful meltup just after the next crisis strikes.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 20:00

• After 4 Years Of Trying To Throw Out Trump, It May Actually Be Biden Who Doesn't Finish His First Term
  After 4 Years Of Trying To Throw Out Trump, It May Actually Be Biden Who Doesn’t Finish His First Term

  (Authored by Quoth the Raven at QTR’s “Fringe Finance” blog: http://quoththeraven.substack.com)

  After 4 years of hearing every possible reason as to why former President Trump should be thrown out of office, impeached, arrested or otherwise prevented from finishing his first term as President, it’ll be President Joe Biden that doesn’t finish his first term as President. At least, that’s my prediction.

  I take zero pleasure in predicting this, not only because I don’t want President Biden’s health to deteriorate, no matter how much I disagree with his policy prescriptions, but also because I found Kamala Harris to be stunningly useless as Attorney General of California, phony and dislikable as a Presidential candidate and now simply incompetent and in over her head as Vice President. A growing number of Americans, a majority of which think she is “not fit to be President”, agree with me.

  
  <!–*/

  */

  /*–>*/
  

  This isn’t a partisan analysis, either. I’m trying to make a prediction based on objective truths to arrive at the most likely outcome. You can make claims that this is a partisan swipe, but be reminded that I also accurately predicted that President Trump would not be re-elected just days into the Covid pandemic, specifically citing his “15 cases going to zero” response to pandemic as inept.

  I made that criticism in a Periscope that has since disappeared into the bowels of the internet somewhere, but I also said it in February 2020 on Twitter.

  Trump says cases in US will be “down to zero soon”

  He’s going to lose the election when Dems replay this statement over and over and over and over and over

  — Quoth the Raven (@QTRResearch) February 27, 2020

  I even predicted it before the press conference started that evening, before the “truth” about Covid was anywhere near the mainstream media and before the entire country went full-on scared shitless and slid face first down a slippery slope into an ocean of panicked reactionary responses based on “the science”.

  I’ll go one further and be the first to say it

  If Trump downplays the coronavirus in tonight’s address to the nation, instead of leveling with the American public, he will not win re-election. He will lose the nation as the truth comes out next few months.

  cc @realDonaldTrump

  — Quoth the Raven (@QTRResearch) February 26, 2020

  In fact, for my misinformed critics out there who thought I was nothing but a mouthpiece for President Trump, here’s a great reminder of just how constantly I was mocking Trump’s response to Covid at first.

  But now let’s turn to President Biden. Let this sink in: Joe Biden has only been President for 7 months out of a 4 year term. That means he has at least 39 more months where he needs to get up every single day and make calculated, critically thought out decisions as leader of the free world.

  I’d be hard pressed to believe that, at this point, Biden can make a critically thought out decision about whether or not he wants waffles or eggs from the White House chef for breakfast, let alone decisions about foreign policy, how many more trillions of worthless U.S. dollars he wants to print out of thin air and spend under the guise of fighting whatever social cause is trendy this week, or national defense.

  39 months is a long time for a President who appeared to barely be able to hold it together leading up to the election.

  The simple fact is that questions about Biden’s mental fitness have bled into the mainstream ethos and are going to persist, and this risks becoming too big of a liability for the Democratic party.

  The world’s most popular podcaster, Joe Rogan, commented this summer:

  “We don’t really have a real leader in this country,” Rogan said. “Everybody knows he’s out of his mind. He’s barely hanging in there.”

  As he did during his campaign, Biden still appears to be continuing his penchant for minimal press interaction and avoiding taking unscripted press questions, dispersing with what is usually a prerequisite for any President in a Democracy.

  After being elected, Biden “waited longer than any president in the last 100 years to face reporters,” according to ABC news.

   

  
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  On the select days that Biden does make his way out in front of the podium now, the press is generally rushed out of the room without being allowed to ask questions. Biden’s own press secretary has even urged him not to take questions from journalists.

  
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  Then there’s the Afghanistan mess. Faced with the first real foreign policy decision of consequence since taking office, it has been nearly unanimously agreed upon that President Biden has botched the U.S. military’s exit from Afghanistan.

  Even CNN was forced to admit, “The debacle of the US defeat and chaotic retreat in Afghanistan is a political disaster for Joe Biden, whose failure to orchestrate an urgent and orderly exit will further rock a presidency plagued by crises and stain his legacy.”

  I knew Afghanistan was gut punch for the Democrats the second that CNN published “analysis” that the blunder, for some reason, wouldn’t matter to the American voter.

  
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  His handling of Afghanistan, as future issues will also do, led back to the unfortunate question of whether or not Biden is fit to be President. Is he now? Was he ever?

  Douglas Murray touched on this in a wonderfully pointed op-ed for the Telegraph this weekend called “Biden was always unfit to be president but his Left-wing media cheerleaders didn’t dare admit it”. In it, Murray lays out the precise case of how the media chose to ignore the warning signs with Biden throughout the election, purely out of their distaste for Donald Trump.

  Murray writes:

  The world appears to have woken up to an important truth this week: which is that Joe Biden is a truly terrible president. It is a shame that it took America gifting Afghanistan back to the Taliban for so many people to realise this.

  To be charitable, there were perhaps two reasons why this had not become more obvious before. The first is that Joe Biden is not Donald Trump and for a lot of the planet that seems to be recommendation enough to occupy the Oval Office. A break from the Trump show appealed to an awful lot of people.

  But the second reason why too few realised what the world was going to get from a Biden presidency is that the US media simply didn’t ask the questions it needed to ask. Before the election a near entirety of the American media gave up covering it and simply campaigned for the Democrat nominee.

  He said of Biden’s tenure thus far:

  It is what you get when you have spent a career with a court media asking you about your choice of ice cream and reached the highest office in the land because you weren’t the other guy.

  The world always gets serious again. And it just got serious on Biden’s watch and has shown something that should have been revealed during the primary season long ago: that the man who is now commander-in-chief is not remotely in command of his brief.

  Not unlike how I knew Afghanistan may be a pressing issue for Biden’s team based on the media’s ridiculous claim that the American public may “not care” about the job he’s done, I feel that I now know his mental health is also becoming a gut punch, because it has become an issue of proactive defense for the left.

  CNN wrote an article this weekend called “Republicans keep trying to make Biden’s mental capacity an issue,” as if questioning the mental fitness of a man who routinely can’t put a sentence together is somehow ageism or a political dirty trick.

  Questions about Biden’s mental health “never really caught on”, CNN wrote.

  Yeah, OK. Listen, CNN, let’s be real with each other here. Sometimes you have to call a spade a spade: Trump fucked up that Covid press conference and Joe Biden may or may not know what year it is or what planet he resides on.

  Another development (and potentially the most disturbing to those laying the chalk that Biden is going to finish his term) is the fact that the mainstream media is turning on Biden slightly. In addition to CNN’s sporadic criticisms layered in between their Democratic excuse-making and spin, networks like ABC have also been committed to making sure Biden can’t lie his way out of the mess he is in, specifically with Afghanistan.

  I think the DNC will have no choice but to realize that the mainstream narrative questioning Biden’s fitness is making its way to the American public. Rasmussen just released a new poll revealing that most Americans don’t think Biden is “mentally and physically capable of doing his job”.

  A majority of voters don’t think President Joe Biden is mentally and physically capable of doing his job, and suspect the White House is actually being run by others.

  A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that only 39% of Likely U.S. Voters believe Biden is really doing the job of president – that’s down from 47% in March. A majority of voter (51%) now say others are making decisions for Biden behind the scenes. Another 10% are not sure. 

  Documentary filmmaker Ami Horowitz also honed in on this sentiment days ago, claiming that the American public has “turned” on Joe Biden.

  If the American public has truly turned on Biden, or is in the process of doing so, the Democratic party is going to have to step in and do damage control and crisis management. At some point, the party may realize that Biden is more of a liability for the party than an asset, and the Democrats may turn their focus to battening down the hatches as much as possible for 2024.

  In my opinion, Democratic strategists should be working on this solution already, before the next public Biden gaffe forces their hand. If the party initiates an attempt to remove Biden from office, it’ll at least appear as though the party still maintains some control, despite its recent infighting between its socialists and moderates.

  A crucial part of managing a crisis is getting ahead of it before it gets ahead of you. I think this is a concept Democrats may be reading about this weekend.

  Gambling.com has Biden finishing his first term at just a 63% chance of occurring.

  PredictIt has odds at $0.26 on the dollar that Biden will resign.

  

  —

  You can subscribe to QTR’s Fringe Finance newsletter here: http://quoththeraven.substack.com

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 19:30

• Canadian Mortgage Debt Rises Fastest Since 2007
  Canadian Mortgage Debt Rises Fastest Since 2007

  It probably does not need much commentary, but the rate of change that Canadians are taking out loans to purchase homes is absolutely astonishing at the moment and is reaching levels not seen since right before the 2008 housing meltdown. 

  

  New data from Statistics Canada shows the monthly changes in residential mortgage credit for June are more than double the historical average. This could only mean one thing, as we’ve noted in “Canadian Housing Market “Gone Berserk” As Investors Stir Bubble Fears” and ““It’s Gone Parabolic”: Canadian Housing In One Shocking Chart” that the Canadian housing market is boiling. 

  The total value of residential mortgages grew 1.2% to $1.4 trillion in June. This rate at which loans are created for residential real-estate purchases is the highest since 2007 and may soon surpass those historical levels when Statistics Canada updates the data for July/August. 

  Like the US, low borrowing costs and the need for more space as remote working gained momentum among white color workers during COVID was the primary driver for record home sales and prices over the last year. 

  But what could spoil the housing market frenzy is the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) tapering of government bonds. The central bank expects to trim more of its monthly purchase this year and set the stage for a rate hike in 2022. 

  Already, existing homes sales on a month-over-month basis have slid into negative territory this summer as prices become unaffordable for many and housing shortages become more pronounced. 

  

  The housing market house of cards could come crashing down if the BoC continues to taper and hikes interest rates in 2022. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 19:00

• US Travel Agencies' Air Ticket Sales Again Surpass $4 Billion Despite Delta Fears
  US Travel Agencies’ Air Ticket Sales Again Surpass $4 Billion Despite Delta Fears

  By Travel Pulse

  Air travel distribution and intelligence provider Airlines Reporting Corp. (ARC) today released its collected data report on net sales from ARC-accredited travel agencies last month. It revealed that July 2021 airline ticket sales increased by 947% over July 2020, and was the second consecutive month this year in which sales totaled more than $4 billion.

  Separately, Goldman’s economic recovery tracker shows that TSA traveler throughput and hotel activity have been roughly flat over the last few weeks.

  

  Despite that, July 2021 actually constituted the first month in which overall sales decreased after seven sequential months of growth. But, ARC said that this follows a typical seasonal pattern of sales falling between June and July every year.

  Month over month, July 2021 data revealed:

  • Total passenger trips down by four percent
  • U.S. domestic trips down by two percent
  • International trips down by 10 percent

  “We typically see a slowdown in new air ticket sales during the summer months as consumers finish their summer vacation travel,” said Chuck Thackston, ARC’s managing director of data science and research. “While airlines and organizations watch the new COVID-19 variants to determine the impact on travel, we anticipate new bookings and ticket sales to follow a similar pattern to prior years.”

  The data from July 2021 also showed:

  • The total number of passenger trips settled by ARC rose 229 percent year over year from 5.1 million to 16.8 million.
  • U.S. domestic passenger trips increased 230 percent, while international trips grew 226 percent year over year.
  • Overall, U.S. domestic passenger trips totaled 12.1 million, while international trips totaled 4.7 million.
  • The average U.S. round-trip ticket price increased to $458, up from $321 in July 2020.
  • Electronic Miscellaneous Document (EMD) sales jumped 311 percent to $7,159,107, while EMD transactions grew 366 percent to $151,578. EMD refers to airlines’ ancillary revenue from electronic sales and transactions besides tickets.

  For more information, visit arccorp.com.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 18:30

• GM Expands Bolt Recall To All Remaining Vehicles, Will Take $1 Billion Charge
  GM Expands Bolt Recall To All Remaining Vehicles, Will Take $1 Billion Charge

  GM has vastly expanded its Chevy Bolt recall that it had previously issued due to risk of fires.

  The company said on Friday it was going to take a $1 billion charge as a result of the recall and that it was “indefinitely” halting sales of the EV due to the risk of fire from the car’s battery pack. 

  The expanded recall “covers 73,000 vehicles from model years 2019 through 2022,” Reuters reported Friday. It now encompasses all remaining Bolt vehicles that hadn’t been previously recalled. The company is targeting replacing defective battery modules with new ones as a solution.

  GM had already set aside $800 million for previous recalls, which is not included in the new $1 billion cost for the company. 

  

  Recall we noted in July when GM issued its second recall for the Bolt. A spokesman for GM said at the time: “As part of GM’s commitment to safety, experts from GM and LG have identified the simultaneous presence of two rare manufacturing defects in the same battery cell as the root cause of battery fires in certain Chevrolet Bolt EVs. As part of this recall, GM will replace defective battery modules in the recall population. We will notify customers when replacement parts are ready.” 

  Back in November of 2020, tens of thousands of Chevrolet Bolt vehicles were recalled after the company became aware of “five fires involving the cars” that resulted in two injuries from smoke inhalation.

  A notice was issued in November for 50,932 of the vehicles in the U.S. dating from 2017 to 2019. General Motors said the battery could “catch fire when charged to full or nearly full capacity,” at the time.

  Battery maker LG said on Friday: “The reserves and ratio of cost to the recall will be decided depending on the result of the joint investigation looking into the root cause, currently being held by GM, LG Electronics and LG Energy Solution.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 18:00

• Leaks Suggest Durham Probe Is Making Progress
  Leaks Suggest Durham Probe Is Making Progress

  Authored by Lee Smith via The Epoch Times,

  Recent media reports point obliquely to significant developments in John Durham’s special counsel investigation. He’s using a grand jury to subpoena documents and witness testimony regarding the FBI’s illegal spying operation against Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. And now stories in the Wall Street Journal and Washington Post say Durham may be looking to make criminal charges against “lower-level FBI agents” as well as outside sources who passed false information to federal law enforcement.

  

  If that’s accurate, the latter category could include political operatives, foreign spies, big-name Beltway lawyers, journalists, and computer experts. But current and former government officials say the reports seem intended to shape the narrative on behalf of those Durham may really have in his crosshairs—senior FBI officials, including former Acting Director Andrew McCabe.

  Since the November election, I’ve expressed skepticism regarding Durham’s investigation. Without Durham’s former boss Attorney General William Barr holding anyone accountable before the 2020 vote, there was nothing stopping the FBI and other federal agencies from continuing to interfere in elections on behalf of their preferred candidates. There was also nothing ensuring that Durham would be allowed to continue his probe with a Trump loss.

  With Durham now working under the auspices of Joe Biden’s Justice Department, his ability to make his findings public, never mind bring charges, might be limited. According to the reports, Durham’s witnesses want Attorney General Merrick Garland to shut him down. And the president likely concurs.

  Biden was the number two official in an administration that spied on a presidential campaign and then Trump’s transition team. He offered advice on how to frame Trump’s national security adviser Gen. Michael Flynn. Even a man in cognitive decline as Biden appears to be would see that allowing his co-conspirators to be exposed to legal risk might tempt them to detail his role in full.

  And if he crosses the FBI, the president isn’t the only Biden family member who might regret it. Recent reports show that the Bureau protected his son Hunter by burying evidence not only of his financial relationships with corrupt foreign officials, but also of a possible blackmail scheme targeting him with the purpose of compromising US national security. Should Biden fail to protect the FBI from Durham, the FBI might stop shielding his son from the law.

  And yet Durham is clearly making headway or else sources wouldn’t be leaking their concerns to the press.

  “Without a doubt the sources for these stories are present or past FBI officials who are trying to pre-emptively downplay what Durham has,” said one senior congressional aide. “Leaking ahead of bad Russiagate news to bend the narrative their way is their MO. The same FBI leakers did the same thing before the DOJ inspector general’s report on FISA abuse came out,” said the aide, referring to the December 2019 account of how the FBI deceived a secret court to obtain a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act warrant to spy on the Trump campaign.

  According to the current round of leaks, Durham prosecutors “have focused on people outside the FBI who provided information that helped fuel the 2016 investigation.” That includes both those who passed information directly to the FBI and, writes the Journal, those who “passed it on to others who later shared it with the FBI.”

  That’s a broad category with a long list attached, implicating famous and infamous Washington, DC political personalities as well as Christopher Steele, the British ex-spy who put his name to a dossier of falsified reports alleging Trump’s ties to Russian officials.

  The list would also include Steele’s clients, Glenn Simpson and Peter Fritsch, co-founders of Fusion GPS, the Washington, DC firm hired by the Hillary Clinton campaign to smear the 2016 Republican candidate. Another Fusion contractor, Nellie Ohr, would also be on that list—she passed information to her husband Justice Department lawyer Bruce Ohr, who relayed it to the FBI. Having served as an intermediary for the FBI and Steele and Simpson as well, he, too, would be under the spotlight.

  Lots of Clinton allies would be on the hot seat. Campaign lawyer Michael Sussman passed information to FBI general counsel James Baker regarding a clandestine link between computer servers for the Trump Organization and Alfa Bank, a Russian financial institution. The FBI investigated the tip and found nothing. Durham called the cyber-experts who first made the claims about the so-called secret server hook-up to testify.

  Others in the Clinton circle who would be on the list include Mrs. Clinton’s counselor Sidney Blumenthal, who played relay man for a second dossier falsely alleging Trump was compromised by Russia. Those reports were written by another Clinton hand, Cody Shearer, and passed by Blumenthal to State Department official Jonathan Winer, who relayed the false information to the FBI through Steele.

  And there’s Stefan Halper, the longtime Beltway political operative who the FBI employed as a confidential human source. He falsely alleged that Flynn had been compromised in a Russian honeypot operation. CIA director John Brennan would be a big catch. In 2017 congressional testimony, he boasted that the information and intelligence he shared with the Bureau served as “the basis” of the FBI’s Trump-Russia investigation. Durham interviewed him for eight hours last summer, though Brennan’s spokesman said the former spymaster wasn’t a suspect or a target.

  A name that keeps popping up in news reports is Steele’s so-called primary sub-source, Igor Danchenko. The former Brookings Institution researcher told the FBI that his information regarding Trump’s Russia connections came from several sources inside Russia. But five Russian nationals whom Danchenko claimed as sources recently signed affidavits swearing that they did not provide him with any information found in the Clinton-funded dossier. So it seems certain Danchenko lied to the FBI.

  And that was always the FBI’s second parachute. Danchenko was set up from the outset to be the fall guy. On the front end, he helped credential the dossier to make it look genuine if the FISA court started asking questions: Steele’s primary sub-source for the Trump information was a real Russian who had real Russian sources. And if the FBI’s plot was discovered, they’d claim they were not criminal, just incompetent—they got fooled by “Russian disinformation,” i.e., Danchenko’s information.

  It seems the leakers have positioned him to play the sap here, too. The message they’re sending is that the probe will stop at Danchenko and maybe some other low-hanging fruit but everyone else is in the clear — Clinton lieutenants, spies, and especially the senior FBI officials who drove the operation. Otherwise, it will amount to a grossly politicized effort to target the opponents of the former president.

  It’s not hard to see the FBI’s angle. “I doubt the investigation is only about people who lied to the FBI,” said Kash Patel, the former national security prosecutor who led Congressman Devin Nunes’ investigation into the FBI’s Trump-Russia probe. “It’s not like the FBI suddenly realized they had a bunch of losers who were lying to them. The FBI knew they were lying. Our investigation proved that the FBI knew that the credibility of their sources was zero.”

  The Durham investigation is almost certainly about the senior FBI officials who staged the lies.

  “They basically forged a FISA warrant and took it to a federal judge to spy on the Trump campaign,” says Patel.

  “I’d be looking at Lisa Page, Peter Strzok, and Andrew McCabe,” he said, referring to the FBI cell that managed the anti-Trump plot.

  Patel noted that McCabe lied about leaking to the media regarding the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails.

  “And he got caught by the inspector general,” said Patel.

  “Why wouldn’t they do the same thing here? The stories coming out now are in publications the FBI used in the past to deflect away from their own corruption.”

  If Durham does come down on the FBI, we’ll see the media take over the narrative and drive it against him. Prestige press organizations will do anything to protect their sources, especially if they’re dirty cops who pushed an illegal espionage operation against a president they didn’t like.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 17:30

• CDC Says Delta Wave Has Likely Peaked Across Northeast
  CDC Says Delta Wave Has Likely Peaked Across Northeast

  New England has one of the highest rates of vaccination in the US. Yet, in recent weeks, local businesses in Connecticut and Massachusetts have been asking customers to mask up once again – in restaurants, bars and gyms – as the number of breakthrough infections rises and Dr. Anthony Fauci turns the variant fearmongering up to 11.

  

  Here are a few data visualizations showing how the northeast is perhaps the most heavily vaccinated region in the entire US.

  

  

  While the mainstream media has mostly focused on reports about crowded ICUs and daily infection rates, the data show far is consistent with forecasts from Dr. Scott Gottlieb and others who expect the present delta-driven wave to peak in the US in early September.

  Now, more data has arrived to suggest the delta variant has likely already peaked across the northeast, even as hospitalizations may continue to climb. in the near term. And before Fauci-worshippers question the souce, the projections, shared here by Bloomberg, were developed and released by the CDC.

  Parts of the U.S. Northeast may be near the peak of the latest Covid-19 wave, though there are still key areas of concern. Hospitalizations and deaths are likely to mount in the weeks to come.

  Cases in Connecticut and Massachusetts have probably topped out, according to the consensus of forecasts published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Yet New York and New Jersey still are expected to see infection rates increase.

  

  Since around mid-July, the Northeast has been feeling the effects of the U.S. Covid-19 wave that started in Arkansas and Missouri and fueled record hospitalizations in Florida. Daily hospital admissions are now on the rise in every state in the Northeast, according to Department of Health and Human Services data.

  “There are continued increases, but not to the level that we’ve seen in previous surges here in the Northeast,” Dr. Roy Gulick, chief of infectious diseases at Weill Cornell Medicine and New York-Presbyterian hospital, said by telephone. “I’m seeing some modeling to suggest that peak won’t occur until late September, early October — but of course we don’t know for sure.”

  Even in NYC, the city now requiring IDs and proof of vaccination for patrons to visit restaurants and gyms (yet New Yorkers still don’t need an ID to vote), the worst of delta is probably already in the rearview mirror, and the prevailing “r” rate – the rate of spread represented by the number of people infected, on average, by a single case – suggests the city and all of New York State likely won’t ever see levels of prevalence anywhere near states like Florida.

  The rates of infection are still far below those seen in early Delta-variant hot spots, and leading indicators suggest the region is likely to crest without getting anywhere near Florida-like levels of viral prevalence. Nationwide cases are still projected to rise for several weeks.

  In New York City, the original epicenter of the U.S. pandemic, the effective reproduction number, or Rt — an estimate of how many new infections come from a single Covid carrier — suggests sustainable declines in case numbers may be on the horizon. Manhattan’s Rt is estimated to have fallen to 1.0, and when it falls below that level cases are expected to decrease in the near future. Rt is somewhat higher in the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn, according to covidestim, a project with contributors from Yale School of Public Health, Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health and Stanford Medicine.

  One scientist said that opening schools without vaccinating kids could exacerbate spread (despite multiple studies showing schools aren’t locuses of COVID spread), though he acknowledged that he couldn’t predict the course of the virus.

  “Multiple factors challenge our ability to predict what’s going to happen next,” said Gulick, including the range of vaccination rates, masking habits and breakthrough cases. “Certainly opening school without having vaccinations available for kids under 12 also potentially will influence the course,” he said.

  So, if the virus is waning, then what’s the argument for forcing Americans, even the young and healthy, to get a third dose of the vaccine?

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 17:00

• NYC Restaurateurs: It’s Not Our Job To Enforce Vaccine Mandates
  NYC Restaurateurs: It’s Not Our Job To Enforce Vaccine Mandates

  By Enrico Trigoso of The Epoch Times,

  On Aug. 17, New York City started requiring restaurants and gyms to check guests and workers for proof of COVID-19 vaccination, as well as photo ID.

  

  The Epoch Times interviewed local restaurant owners about their opinions on the vaccine mandate.

  Stratis Morfogen, the principal Director of Operations for Brooklyn Dumpling Shop told The Epoch Times that his business was always at the forefront of safety, and even came up with a 40 step safety plan, compared to only 12 steps mandated by the city.

  Morfogen believes that the city didn’t plan properly for this mandate, and that the pieces of cardboard signed in pen that they were giving out as proof of vaccination earlier this year were too backward technologically.

  “They didn’t plan properly knowing that a vaccine was coming. By last summer, they should have started working on their apps, and their central database, and their technology aspects of creating a place where everybody can share data, and unfortunately they didn’t do their homework,” he said.

  Two months later the apps for vaccination proof started coming out, but there were too many people already vaccinated by then.

  Referring to an app called “Go pass,” Morfogen said not everyone has it because it came out months after they were vaccinated, and not everyone is so tech-savvy.

  “The government, city especially, and the state have not given us the proper tools to crosscheck, to see if this piece of paper written in pen is validated. It reminds me of my learner’s permit from 1983.”

  “My question is, why aren’t they doing this at Home Depot, why aren’t they doing this at CVS, Why aren’t they doing this at Stop & Shop? Why are they picking on the only place that people can congregate and have the lowest infection rate?” Morfogen added.

  

  “I can’t tell people to put something into their body. I can advise them on what food and drink they can have and protect the safety of my product, but I can’t tell a pregnant woman, ‘you can’t come into my restaurant tonight because you’re not vaccinated,’ or I can’t tell someone that has a religious belief, who doesn’t want to take the vaccine for religious standards. It’s not my job to do that.”

  T.J. Provenzano, manager of Rosella restaurant in Manhattan, hopes the mandates don’t have an effect on his business.

  “We don’t want to get shut down again, I’ll tell you that much,” Provenzano said. “But I certainly don’t want to be the enforcer of city and state law.”

  “If there’s a law made and if that’s the way they would like it to be, then let them figure out how to enforce it. Why is it my responsibility?”

  “It’s frustrating, but at the same time we do not want to get shut down. We’ll do anything they say,” he added. “We’ve got to stay in business.”

  The Epoch Times reached out to PUBLIC Hotel for an interview after it was applauded by NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio for its early enforcement of the mandates. The doorman acknowledged the request, but upon checking with the management, the doorman returned and repeatedly advised, “we have nothing to say to you.”

  An employee of Suki, a Japanese curry and ramen restaurant, told The Epoch Times that she doesn’t trust the vaccine and doesn’t want to get vaccinated.

  “I really don’t want to get vaccinated because I don’t trust how fast it was created,” Ruth Caraballo said. “I think it will affect these businesses, … all of them, because some people like me, we don’t want to get vaccinated and, if they don’t accept the vaccine, how can they come and eat here. They’re not allowed to eat here because of the vaccine. So I think it’ll cause disruption.”

  Enforcement for the mandate is set to start on Sept. 13. Restaurants have already been affected gravely due to the pandemic. A custom burger business called “The Counter,” located near Times Square, believes it will have to shut down if only vaccinated people can come in.

  

   

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 16:30

• Dramatic Satellite Imagery Shows Intense Wildfires Ravaging Western US
  Dramatic Satellite Imagery Shows Intense Wildfires Ravaging Western US

  Dramatic satellite imagery shows the intense wildfires raging across the Western US, generating large smoke columns that have blanketed several states. 

  

  Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere’s Dakota Smith released what he says is “awful satellite imagery out of the West” last week that shows the extent of the “2021 Western wildfire disaster.” 

  Awful satellite imagery out of the West tonight.

  The 2021 Western wildfire disaster continues. pic.twitter.com/MW2wEudmOq

  — Dakota Smith (@weatherdak) August 17, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  According to the National Interagency Fire Center, more than 99 larger fires are burning in 12 states and have consumed more than 2.5 million acres. 

  

  The largest active fire to date is Dixie Fire in Northern California. The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection reported at 0752 local time that Dixie has burned 714,000 acres and is only 35% contained. 

  

  Smith tweeted a GIF satellite video of the Dixie Fire. 

  Close up of the Dixie Fire, showing extreme behavior. pic.twitter.com/Leu2ieP8Ot

  — Dakota Smith (@weatherdak) August 17, 2021

  He spots several wildfires in Oregon. 

  A view of the numerous wildfires in Oregon. pic.twitter.com/lECLkiOGlR

  — Dakota Smith (@weatherdak) August 17, 2021

  Smith shows wildfires are filling up California skies with smoke.

  Quite incredible full day animation of the West wildfires. pic.twitter.com/DxW7pcAYWs

  — Dakota Smith (@weatherdak) August 17, 2021

  Smoke forecast models for Saturday morning show intense smoke across the West. 

  Start: Aug 21 6AM PDT
  End: Aug 22 1AM PDT pic.twitter.com/XMVDtjMWSQ

  — HRRR Smoke Bot (@HRRRSmokeBot) August 21, 2021

  Readers may recall in a weather note from May titled “California’s 2021 Fire Season Could Be “Like Armageddon,” Officials Warn” we quoted California’s top fire officials who warned, “conditions are already ripe for wildfires.” 

  What’s happening across the West is nothing short of historical, especially the Dixie Fire in California. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 16:00

• Bin Laden Warns "Biden Will Lead US Into Crisis" In Letter From 2010
  Bin Laden Warns “Biden Will Lead US Into Crisis” In Letter From 2010

  During what has been inarguably the most embarrassing stretch of the Biden presidency (and it’s not over yet,  as sources at the airport in Kabul say the situation has continued to deteriorate on Saturday), a letter taken from the massive cache of documents retrieved by American Navy SEALs from Osama bin Laden’s compound has leaked to the New York Post…and what it says might offer some insight into the Taliban’s PR strategy as they re-assume control of Afghanistan after 20 years.

  

  The letter reveals that Osama bin Laden thought so little of Biden’s capabilities as a leader that he ordered Al Qaeda specifically not to target Biden for assassination, asking instead that they focus on President Obama, or Gen. David Petraeus (then still in control of the mission in Afghanistan). The letter is dated from May 2010.

  In the letter dated May 2010, the al Qaeda 9/11 mastermind wrote he had no assassination plots against Biden because he deemed him “totally unprepared” to lead the United States.

  Instead, bin Laden urged his followers to be on the lookout for then-President Obama.

  He told them there was a high priority to target aircrafts belonging to Obama and then-CIA director David Petraeus.

  “They are not to target visits by US Vice President Biden. The groups will remain on the lookout for Obama or Petraeus,” bin Laden wrote.

  Bin Laden reasoned that having Biden ascend to the presidency would be a net benefit for Al Qaeda.

  “The reason for concentrating on them is that Obama is the head of infidelity and killing him automatically will make Biden take over the presidency for the remainder of the term, as it is the norm over there.”

  “Biden is totally unprepared for that post, which will lead the US into a crisis.”

  “As for Petraeus, he is the man of the house in this last year of the war, and killing him would alter the war’s path.”

  An excerpt from the documents can be seen below:

  

   

  Bin Laden’s musings about Biden’s ineptitude (remember, Biden’s history of public gaffes started long before the 2020 campaign) aren’t the only criticisms of Biden that have resurfaced in recent days. On TikTok, a new generation of Americans is getting acquainted with Biden’s long history of gaffe-making via this clip from the late, great Robin Williams, who skewers the then-vice president in this bit.

  The thirty second bit begins: “Joe is like your uncle who’s got a new drug and hasn’t got the dosage right… ‘I’m proud to work with Barack America’ – he’s not a superhero you idiot come here! ‘When FDR was on television…’ – there was no TV back then come here Joe, sit down!”

  As the NYPost points out, more documents taken from the Bin Laden cache are available here.

  Clearly, the Taliban share Bin Laden’s dim view of Biden. Why else do you think they’re investing so much effort in their PR “rebranding” – is it because they know Biden will fall for it, hook line and sinker?

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 15:30

• CDC Buries Study Finding That Student Masking Has 'No Statistically Significant Benefit'
  CDC Buries Study Finding That Student Masking Has ‘No Statistically Significant Benefit’

  Less than three months ago, the Centers for Disease Control published a mostly-ignored, large-scale study of Covid-19 transmission in US schools which concluded that while masking then-unvaccinated teachers and improving ventilation was associated with lower levels of virus transmission in schools – social distancing, classroom barriers, HEPA filters, and forcing students to wear masks did not result in a statistically significant benefit.

  

  A few major news outlets covered its release by briefly reiterating the study’s summary: that masking then-unvaccinated teachers and improving ventilation with more fresh air were associated with a lower incidence of the virus in schools. Those are common-sense measures, and the fact that they seem to work is reassuring but not surprising. Other findings of equal importance in the study, however, were absent from the summary and not widely reported. These findings cast doubt on the impact of many of the most common mitigation measures in American schools. Distancing, hybrid models, classroom barriers, HEPA filters, and, most notably, requiring student masking were each found to not have a statistically significant benefit. In other words, these measures could not be said to be effective. -NYMag

  According to the report, scientists believe that the CDC’s decision to intentionally omit the findings on student masking from a summary of the study amounts to “file drawering” the findings – the practice of burying studies that don’t have statistically significant results.

  “That a masking requirement of students failed to show independent benefit is a finding of consequence and great interest,” according to Vinay Prasad, an associate professor in University of California, San Francisco’s Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics. “It should have been included in the summary.”

  Epidemiologist Tracy Hoeg, author of a different CDC study on Covid-19 transmission in schools said that “The summary gives the impression that only masking of staff was studied,” adding “when in reality there was this additional important detection about a student-masking requirement not having a statistical impact.”

  As Twitchy notes, NYMag‘s David Zweig questioned why the US is requiring masks when other countries don’t.

  A 3,000 word deep dive into the evidence behind student mask mandates

  Many countries around the world – with vax rates, case rates, and mortality above and below the US – do not require masks on students. Why does the US?

  My latest for @NYMag https://t.co/r2nYIHVPNj

  — David Zweig (@davidzweig) August 20, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsDavid was joined by others pointing out similar facts:

  “Many of America’s peer nations around the world — including the U.K., Ireland, all of Scandinavia, France, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Italy — have exempted kids, with varying age cutoffs, from wearing masks in classrooms.” https://t.co/kYoEkjq1FE

  — Matt Welch (@MattWelch) August 20, 2021

   More via Twitchy:

  But it’s not just this CDC study. There are no studies that Zwieg — or anyone — can find that “show conclusively that kids wearing masks in schools has any effect on their own morbidity or mortality or on hospitalization or death rate in the community around them”:

  “I’m not aware of any studies that show conclusively that kids wearing masks in schools has any effect on their own morbidity or mortality or on the hospitalization or death rate in the community around them.”

  ⁦@davidzweig⁩ https://t.co/pCut7MCfhX

  — Jennifer Sey (@JenniferSey) August 20, 2021

  Meanwhile, as we’ve noted a few times in the past week, there are plenty of studies which conclude that masks provide minimal to no protection. 

  1. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.18.21257385v1.full-text
  2. https://swprs.org/face-masks-evidence/
  3. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29395560/
  4. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32590322/
  5. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15340662/
  6. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26579222/
  7. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31159777/
  8. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/
  9. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20049528v1
  10. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047217v2
  11. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372
  12. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214
  13. https://www.cmaj.ca/content/188/8/567
  14. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5779801/
  15. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19216002/
  16. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/
  17. https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/65/11/1934/4068747
  18. https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/bio/23/2/23_61/_pdf/-char/en
  19. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF01658736
  20. https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/0195-6701(91)90148-2/pdf90148-2/pdf)
  21. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2493952/pdf/annrcse01509-0009.pdf
  22. https://web.archive.org/web/20200717141836/https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/commentary-masks-all-covid-19-not-based-sound-data
  23. https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25776/rapid-expert-consultation-on-the-effectiveness-of-fabric-masks-for-the-covid-19-pandemic-april-8-2020
  24. https://www.nap.edu/read/25776/chapter/1#6
  25. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article
  26. https://academic.oup.com/annweh/article/54/7/789/202744
  27. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6599448/
  28. https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1342
  29. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00392-020-01704-y
  30. https://clinmedjournals.org/articles/jide/journal-of-infectious-diseases-and-epidemiology-jide-6-130.php?jid=jide
  31. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1130147308702355

  So why are we making American kids wear oat bags every day?

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/21/2021 – 15:00

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Fear Porn Inc.
  Fear Porn Inc.

  Authored by Terry Paulding via AmericanThinker.com,

  I took a step back from writing about the Wu Flu for a few weeks because there were so many people already writing what I was thinking.  But now the country and the world around us are spiraling downward into panic, and officials are feeding us fear porn recklessly.  It’s time to sift the information, to try to find some clarity.  My all-time favorite word is “perspective,” and that is what seems to be missing right now.  That, and honesty from the “top” levels of our government and our media.

  I’m not a medical professional.  Just an observant senior citizen who cares about my own health and that of those around me.  I read and watch multiple sources of information daily because as a grandparent, I’m concerned for my kids and my little grandkids, as well as my own well-being.  

  The following are my observations.

  

  Let’s start with this mostly unacknowledged problem: the vaccinated have had the rug pulled right out from under their feet.  They were secure in the knowledge that they did the right thing.  They dutifully rolled up their sleeves, problem solved, COVID could no longer touch them.  Oops!

  Cue the needle screeching across the record, painfully.  (Sorry, youngsters, if that’s not an image that makes you cringe as it does us old-timers.)  

  Now the vaccinated are aware that there is no truth to the bogus “fact” that they would no longer be in any danger from COVID.  The booster shot is being pushed, and pushed hard — but will it be any better than the first two ineffective shots?  

  The fact that the “vaccine” is not a vaccine is becoming obvious.  

  The fear is palpable.  No matter how high they hastily build their wall against information contrary to the narrative, that wall is crumbling.  Reports from other countries, and from our own hospital nurses, are that wards are filled with sick, vaccinated people.

  There are ample reports that the vaccinated are in fact themselves spreading delta and therefore responsible for the variant’s mayhem.  This may be because their infections are often symptom-free, due to the effects of the vaccine.  Then there are the terrifying reports that the vaccinated have compromised their immune systems.  Nobody wants to mention any of these possibilities, because they would interfere with the program to get everyone vaccinated.  With good reason!

  Why, then, is government coming down on the unvaccinated so hard? What’s to be gained by the heavy-handed approach?  

  New Yorkers, for instance, no longer have the freedom to live if they aren’t vaccinated.  I can’t imagine (and I’m an ex–New Yorker, so I imagine the city quite well) what that would be like.  I guess grocery and restaurant delivery would be the only options.  You can’t live like that, not in a city that is a rabbit-warren of small apartments stacked on top of one another, next to one another.  It’s a recipe for despair.  Not only for the unvaccinated who have never had COVID, but also for those who have had it and have natural immunity to the virus, immunity that’s far better than the spike protein in the “vaccine” shots.

  San Francisco is going in the same direction.  Want to go to a restaurant or bar?  Show your vaccination certificate.  In the Bay Area, people are clearly terrified.  They’ve started wearing their masks alone, in the car, once again.  

  That’s a pretty strong indicator.

  Those of us who decided not to get the shot are the lucky ones.  If we get COVID, we’ll know, and if we’re smart, we will have arranged in advance to get treatment immediately.  In Florida, Ron DeSantis is setting up clinics for monoclonal antibody infusions.  They’re desperate to shut him down.  Treating people for the infection in a forthright, obvious manner means it will no longer have the power to terrify us all into getting the lucrative jabs.  

  We won’t all end up in the hospital; we won’t be dying.  Between the antibody treatments, and ivermectin and its cohort of zinc, Vitamin D, etc., the death toll from the virus should be demonstrably minuscule among the otherwise healthy.

  I have to add my own honest feelings about this.  I am not scared of getting the delta variant.  

  From all accounts, it will confer great antibody protection from future infections.  It’s not that bad in the healthy, and I’m healthy.  I’ve arranged treatment if I get it.  And I would be making my contribution to herd immunity.  I also think if the kids get delta, it would be far better than subjecting them to the experimental, and likely harmful in the long term, “vaccine.”  Especially since the vaccine has killed 9,000+ Americans and injured countless others with myocarditis, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and potentially (we just don’t really know yet!) more.  

  My opinion: Take off the masks, mingle freely, celebrate life.  End the fear porn’s power over all of us.  It’s time.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 23:40

• US Customs In Alaska Seizes 3,000 Fake CDC Vaxx Cards From China
  US Customs In Alaska Seizes 3,000 Fake CDC Vaxx Cards From China

  It what may be the largest “fake vaccine document” seizure to date – following on the heels of one in Memphis – US Customs and Border Patrol (CPB) announced this week that it intercepted a shipment of over 3,000 counterfeit vaccine cards in Anchorage, Alaska at the airport.

  Perhaps the most interesting aspect to the seizure is that the fake document shipment arrived from China. But according to the US Customs statement, the fakes – which appeared to copy CDC vaccination cards – were easy to spot:

  The vaccine cards sought to mirror those distributed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) after a person receives their full regimen the coronavirus vaccine. However, CPB stated that the cards were of “low quality printing.” 

  

  The seizure is similar to a bust of China-shipped fakes in Memphis Tennessee just days prior. Area Port Director Lance Robinson was cited in a press release as saying, “Getting these fraudulent cards off the streets and out of the hands of those who would then sell them is important for the safety of the American public.” 

  “Looking out for the welfare of our fellow Alaskans is one of the many and varied responsibilities CBP is proud to take on,” he added.

  Black market demand for such fake vaxx cards is on the rise in correlation to the number of public venues and events across the country now demanding “proof” of COVID vaccination, whether they be restaurants or concerts and festival venues.

  A handful of Americans have been caught with fake vaccine cards, however, it doesn’t appear anyone has as yet spent time in jail for the violation. But both local and federal authorities are increasingly making threats of steep fines and up to a year or even five years in jail for fraudulent activity related to vaccines and medical documentation.

  For example in Chicago…

  A licensed pharmacist in Chicago was arrested for allegedly selling vaccine cards on eBay, the U.S. Department of Justice announced Tuesday.

  According to court documents, prosecutors said Tang-Tang Zhao sold 125 authentic CDC vaccination cards to 11 different buyers for approximately $10 apiece. 

  “If you do not wish to receive a vaccine, that is your decision,” one US Customs official said additionally last week. “But don’t order a counterfeit, waste my officer’s time, break the law, and misrepresent yourself.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 23:20

• It's Time To Purge The "Experts"
  It’s Time To Purge The “Experts”

  Authored by Wesley Smith via The Epoch Times,

  The United States’ military mission in Afghanistan has collapsed in chaos and ignominy. The catastrophe has many parents. But surely “the experts” upon which our leader relied bear much blame.

  

  They were the ones who often failed to comprehend the power of religious belief and the role pride in Islam played in the Taliban’s unyielding commitment to victory. They were the ones who thought we could remake Afghanistan into a western liberal image. They were the ones who failed to comprehend the intractable tribal nature of Afghan society.

  To say the least, Afghanistan has vividly exposed the utter stupidity of our vaunted foreign policy and national security experts. Our hapless Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, for example, assured us that Kabul would not fall from “Friday to Monday.” He was right. It fell from Friday to Sunday.

  And what are we to make of the vaunted internationalists at the United Nations? After President Biden’s godawful speech signifying nothing, the State Department held a press briefing, during which spokesman Ted Price reiterated an unintentionally hilarious United Nations Security Council statement urging the Taliban government to be “inclusive and representative—including with the full, equal and meaningful participation of women.” I’m sure the barbarians will get right to including women as soon as they are finished raping them.

  The hubris of these whizzes might be tolerable if they were adept at technocracy. But they stink at it. Indeed, every American debacle in my lifetime has “the experts’” fingerprints all over it. There was the Bay of Pigs fiasco. Vietnam. The farce of the missing Iraq WMDs. The list goes on and on.

  What’s that you say? The Cuban Missile Crisis worked out very well? Indeed, it did. But that was because JFK ignored the advice of military experts to bomb Cuba.

  What about the collapse of the Soviet Union? Once again, that salutary event was hastened because President Reagan ignored experts’ widespread disdain of the Strategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars) program and forged ahead anyway, which helped break the communists’ treasury.

  Look at China. Our China-hand experts were sure that if we boosted the country’s economy the Chinese people would demand increased freedom to go along with their improved standard of living. Not only did that demand not materialize—except in the now crushed Hong Kong citizens’ reaction to the loss of their once existing freedoms—but we are looking increasingly like China instead of it looking more like us.

  Worse, we are now dependent on that tyranny for much of our manufacturing and mining of crucial natural resources like rare earth metals.

  Great job, experts!

  Foreign policy is far from the only field afflicted with debilitating expertitis.

  The public health failures during COVID could—and no doubt will—fill several books. But the botched investigations and repeated mendacity surrounding the question of whether the virus escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, are particularly enraging—not to mention the U.S. funding of “gain of function” research conducted there championed by Dr. Anthony Fauci.

  Speaking of the hubris of the expert class, Fauci wrote last year that WHO and the UN should be empowered to “rebuild the infrastructure of human existence” in order to avoid future pandemics. Considering their repeated record of abject failure, putting the international experts in charge of such an all-encompassing project would probably return us to the caves

  And look what has happened in the medical sector where our experts are helping drive the transgender moral panic. Major medical journals and associations even promote puberty blocking for children despite its being, at best, entirely experimental and potentially physically harmful to the patients. Good grief, the American Medical Association even urges that we stop listing the sex of children on birth certificates!

  And we haven’t even yet mentioned the misbegotten California public policies recommended by climate change experts that have reduced the once Golden State to a third world environment of rolling blackouts, out-of-control wildfires, and inadequate water storage because no new reservoirs have been built for decades—this, even though the state’s population grew exponentially. Good grief, farmers in the Central Valley have begun plowing under their precious almond trees!

  Failure after dismal failure has caused mass distrust in the expert class and a concomitant collapse of confidence in our institutions.

  This is a profound crisis. We need expertise. People who know what they are talking about and who can explain complicated issues to policy makers and the people are essential to the proper operation of sophisticated democratic societies.

  But to do that job right, experts need to be apolitical. They need to provide as objective advice as they can when wearing their “expert” hats. Most of all, they need to put personal ideology aside in the performance of their duties and welcome heterodox opinions. For example, it wasn’t ideology that created the triumph of the moon landing. It was dispassionate excellence in rocket science and engineering.

  The problem is that too many of our current “experts”—in foreign policy, law enforcement, science, education, the medical intelligentsia, the list goes on and on—have become highly politicized. Some even now think they should be deciders rather than advisers. That attitude doesn’t make policy more expertly based, it makes expertise more politically motivated, which is to say, it ceases being expert at all.

  Creating a paradigm in which we can again safely rely on experts will require a great culling of the faux specialists now perched in powerful government and think tank sinecures. Frankly, mass resignations or firings may be the only efficacious remedy for what ails us. The time has come for that great sorting out to begin.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 23:00

• ATF Now Labels FRT-15 A Machine Gun, Turning Law Abiding Citizens Into Criminals
  ATF Now Labels FRT-15 A Machine Gun, Turning Law Abiding Citizens Into Criminals

  The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) decided that Florida company Rare Breed Trigger, LLC’s special trigger is converting semi-automatic rifles into machine guns. 

  FRT-15 is a drop-in trigger for an AR-15 rifle and forces the trigger to be reset. The force reset dramatically speeds up the rate of fire of the rifle. 

  

  On July 26, the ATF sent a letter to Rare Breed stating the FRT-15 trigger has been classified as a machine gun under the National Firearms Act and that Rare Breed needs to cease all sales. 

  

  The ATF declared the Rare Breed trigger a mixture of parts designed and intended to convert a semi-automatic weapon into a machine gun. The ATF’s investigation found that the trigger allows a firearm to “shoot, automatically more than one shot, without manual reloading, with a single continuous pull of the trigger.”

  According to Baltimore-based The Machine Gun Nest, Rare Breed had to contact the ATF within five days of receiving the letter to develop a plan to address those so-called “machine guns” already distributed.

  Rare Breed has challenged the ATF’s decision and is set to explain how their trigger mechanism still fits the definition of a semi-automatic weapon. 

  The Machine Gun Nest said the ATF is going rogue again due to former President Trump setting dangerous precedence with the bump stock ban because the Biden administration could, at any moment, say an AR-15 is a machine gun. 

  “While I’ve handled one [FRT-15], I understand that they still require one pull of the trigger to function. The user pulls the trigger, the weapon fires, and the FRT-15 forces a reset of the trigger. If the user keeps continuous force on the trigger, it will fire again,” The Truth About Guns’ Travis Pike said. 

  Pike added, “This is not an automatic function by any means, and the weapon fires one shot per trigger pull.” 

  In a video released by Rare Breeds, the company explains how the FRT-15 mechanism doesn’t classify a rifle as a machine gun. 

  The Machine Gun Nest ends by saying, “When we have a law enforcement agency acting through executive fiat by just changing these rules and criminalizing people – it sets terrifying precedence – what if the CDC changed a rule that would criminalize you overnight? If you think this okay, then they haven’t come for something important to you yet – and this is the precedent that is giving the government too much power.” 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 22:40

• McMaken: Did The Pentagon & The Generals Want This Disastrous War?
  McMaken: Did The Pentagon & The Generals Want This Disastrous War?

  Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

  In early July, Ron Paul penned a column titled “It’s Saigon In Afghanistan,” invoking the imagery of the fall of Saigon in 1975, when US military helicopters scrambled to evacuate personnel from the roof of the US embassy. But Paul suggested that maybe the situation in Afghanistan was “perhaps not as dramatic” as the situation in Saigon forty-six years ago.

  But that was six weeks ago.

  Now, it looks like the end of the US’s war in Afghanistan may be in many ways every bit as chaotic as the US regime’s final defeat in Vietnam.

  When Paul was writing his article in early July, we were already getting hints of the direction things were going. US forces abandoned Bagram Airfield in the middle of the night, and the US didn’t even tell its allies what was going on. Afghan officials discovered the US was gone hours later. Shortly thereafter, looters ransacked the base.

  But that, it seems, was just the beginning. Over a period of a mere ten days, provincial capitals in Afghanistan have fallen one after the other. On Sunday, the Taliban entered the strategically key capital Kabul. The Taliban’s reconquest of the country was so fast that even the US regime’s spokesman admitted “the militants’ progress came much more quickly than the U.S. had anticipated.”

  Now, after spending twenty years implementing “regime change” in Afghanistan, and after spending more than $800 billion—an official figure that’s likely far smaller than the real monetary cost—the US’s strategy in Afghanistan has completely collapsed.

  Indeed, for the US’s local allies, the situation is far worse now than what it was in 2001. Those who were unwise enough to ally themselves with the Americans over the past twenty years now face reprisals from the Taliban. Death will likely be the result for many.

  Not surprisingly, then, Afghanis in recent days have flocked to Kabul International Airport, desperate to find some way out of the country as the Taliban closes in.

  Crowds of people desperate to escape Afghanistan stormed Kabul’s international airport, rushing onto the tarmac.

  People clung to the sides of military planes, even as one taxied down the runway, in a bid to flee as the Taliban takes control.https://t.co/BMfaEkDykr pic.twitter.com/WkX0JQx3io

  — The New York Times (@nytimes) August 16, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It’s doesn’t take an immense amount of imagination to recall the images of those who were desperate to escape from the US embassy in Saigon.

  Blame the Generals and the Pentagon

  So now we reach the stage of figuring out who is to blame for this total strategic failure in Afghanistan.

  Some politicians will try and use the US regime’s failure in Afghanistan to score points against the Biden administration. We already see it with some Republicans who still haven’t figured out that the American public long ago stopped caring about the war. 

  It’s easy to see the partisan reasons for this, but if we want to honestly focus on who’s to blame for the utter waste of time and resources that was the war in Afghanistan, we have to look far beyond just a handful of civilian politicians.

  Yes, much of the blame should go to the civilian bureaucrats, because they share an immense amount of the blame in bringing about this strategic blunder. George W. Bush, Donald Rumsfeld, Condoleezza Rice, Paul Wolfowitz, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Madeleine Albright are just a few of the politicos who encouraged the continuation of this lost war.

  But the fact is the civilian war architects were encouraged and enabled every step of the way by Pentagon bureaucrats (i.e., the generals), who were only more than happy to have an excuse to pad their budgets and increase their relevance on Capitol Hill. As Ron Paul put it this week:

  The generals and other high-ranking military officers lied to their commander-in-chief and to the American people for years about progress in Afghanistan. The same is true for the US intelligence agencies. Unless there is a major purge of those who lied and misled, we can count on these disasters to continue until the last US dollar goes up in smoke.

  And of course, the Pentagon allied itself with the “private” sector industries that supplied the materiel.

  Paul continues:

  The military industrial complex spent 20 years on the gravy train with the Afghanistan war. They built missiles, they built tanks, they built aircraft and helicopters. They hired armies of lobbyists and think tank writers to continue the lie that was making them rich. They wrapped their graft up in the American flag, but they are the opposite of patriots.

  Or, as Timothy Kudo describes it,

  Across two decades, our military leaders presented rosy pictures of the Afghanistan War and its prospects to the president, Congress, and the American people, despite clear internal debate about the validity of those assessments and real-time contradictory information from those fighting and losing the daily battle against the Taliban. Or, to put it in the words of John Sopko, the inspector general who issued a series of reports known as the Afghanistan Papers: “The American people have constantly been lied to.”

  Nor did the military officers counsel caution or peace. Douglas MacGregor at the American Conservative correctly recalls:

  All that can be said with certainty is that between 2001 and 2021, none of the senior officers expressed opposition to the policies of intervention and occupation strongly enough to warrant their removal. None felt compelled to leave the service and take their opposing views to the public forum.

  When it became clear that the collective strategies and tactics in Afghanistan and Iraq were failing, not only General David Petraeus, but most of America’s senior military leaders chose to prevaricate and distort facts in public to show progress when there was none. How many American lives might have been saved had someone only told the truth will never be known.

  Moreover, Petraeus and countless military technocrats continued to call for more military action while trying to place the blame on others. Doug Bandow sums it up:

  Many of those once responsible for U.S. forces in Afghanistan while in authority have taken the lead in trying to perpetuate the mission. For instance, David Petraeus is busy trying to shield his reputation and shift blame to Biden as the Afghan project collapses. Joseph Dunford, former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, recently co-chaired the congressionally mandated Afghanistan Study Group, which predictably insisted that the United States should stay in the country. What other conclusion was imaginable? As the entire geopolitical enterprise collapses, its promoters insist that American forces should stick around with no good purpose and no realistic plan of action.

  Indeed, the incompetence of the US’s military leadership has been on clear display in recent weeks as the US-trained and US-armed military personnel have been impotent in the face of Taliban advances. The US’s military hierarchy was specifically tasked with training these Afghan forces, yet it’s now clear how well that directive was carried out.

  

  Unwarranted Trust in Military Brass

  The complicity of the military brass’s role has always been especially damaging, because the generals have long banked on the unwarranted amount of credibility they enjoy with the public. As Kudo notes:

  The promise that victory was just around the corner proved intoxicating to presidents and politicians, not to mention everyday Americans, who blindly trusted anyone with four stars on his epaulettes. Despite the partisanship and institutional mistrust of the past two decades, the military consistently has been the most trusted institution in the country, rated highly by roughly 70 percent of Americans. Cloaked in near-universal trust, these officers repeatedly argued that an unwinnable war could be won.

  Unfortunately, because of this, military personnel are likely to continue to be shielded from the criticism they deserve.

  After all, there is a persistent habit among many Americans to repeat the narrative that all wars will be won if only the politicians listen to the generals, and “let the generals do their job.” One still hears this today from those who still engage in wishful thinking about the Vietnam War and who still cling to the idea that the war could have been won if only the military “experts” had been in charge. In actual experience, however, the lost war in Afghanistan is what we get when we listen to the generals. 

  But don’t expect any meaningful reform. In the United States, when bureaucrats fail, they usually get rewarded with larger budgets, such as when the US’s “intelligence community” allowed 9/11 to occur right under its collective nose. The same is likely—at least in the short term—for the Pentagon. The generals will simply “pivot” to argue for ever-larger military budgets in the name of fighting China, Iran, Russia, and other perceived enemies. 

  In other words, the generals and the civilian politicians are hard at work planning the next Afghanistan. Let’s just hope the taxpayers who pay for it all may be a little less naïve next time.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 22:20

• Semi Shortage Continues To Sting Auto Production, With VW And Toyota Cutting Output
  Semi Shortage Continues To Sting Auto Production, With VW And Toyota Cutting Output

  Both VW and Toyota have announced they are temporarily cutting output due to the ongoing global chip shortage, with Volkswagen being the latest to disclose the production pause. 

  VW’s main plant in Wolfsburg is only going to be running on its early shift after summer break due to the lack of supply, Bloomberg reported this morning.

  Its plant in Wolfsburg is the “world’s biggest car plant” and employs about 60,000 people. Audi is also pausing production temporarily, extending its summer break by one week, the report notes. 

  Global shortages of semiconductors could wind up cutting worldwide production of autos this year by about 7.1 million vehicles, Bloomberg predicted this morning. 

  IHS predicts that 2.1 million units could wind up being lost in the third quarter of 2021 alone. 

  

  There is still little in the way of normalization to be optimistic about until the second quarter of 2022, IHS estimates. 

  An IHS report stated: “The situation is still fraught with challenges. We are also seeing additional volatility due to Covid-19 lockdown measures in Malaysia where many back-end chip packaging and testing operations are performed.”

  Toyota also said it was planning to temporarily stop 14 plants next month while lowering its production by 40%. 

  Toyota Purchasing Group Chief Officer Kazunari Kumakura said this week: “Especially in Southeast Asia, the spread of Covid and lockdowns are impacting our local suppliers.”

  The rise of the Delta variant in Southeast Asia has once again slowed production, just as most countries were getting ready to “officially” re-open, on the heels of numerous vaccines becoming available. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 22:00

• Democrats' "Defund-The-Police" Debacle
  Democrats’ “Defund-The-Police” Debacle

  Authored by Charles Lipson via RealClearPolitics.com,

  It’s easy to find politicians saying dumb things. Television news gives them plenty of coverage. Viewers like colorful voices, which are often the most extreme.

  The resulting Kardashianization of politics doesn’t matter much unless these caricatures tarnish an entire political party, define its public perception, and compromise its chances of passing legislation and winning elections.

  

  That’s the Democrats’ problem with “the Squad,” led by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

  This problem arose again last week when squad member Cori Bush told a national TV audience how eager she is to defund the police. She said nothing to convince anyone who rejects her views. She probably made matters worse with her transparent hypocrisy, defending her right to hire expensive private security guards while advocating less police protection for everyone else.

  Rep. Bush hasn’t learned the single most important lesson about being stuck in a hole: Stop digging. The St. Louis Democrat doesn’t dig with shovels, either. She bought an industrial-size excavator and went to work. The hole she’s digging is “defund the police,” and polls show she’s mining for fool’s gold. The defund movement may be popular with some wealthy (white) elites, activists on the extreme left and, at least temporarily, some African Americans in congressional districts like Bush’s, though its popularity even in those precincts will fade as violence continues to rise. Everyone else is already staunchly opposed. They fear, quite reasonably, that defunding will lead to more crime, not only because there will be fewer cops on the beat but because those who remain will limit their active policing because they lack political support.

  A new poll, just completed by Harvard’s Center for American Political Studies and Harris Poll, shows that 75% of respondents want more police and only 25% want less. About the same number, 72%, oppose defunding the police. A slight majority even favors restoring “stop and frisk” policies to “deter gun crime,” something New York did under Mayors Giuliani and Bloomberg before ending the practice because so many young minority men were being searched.

  Pollster Mark Penn, co-leader of the Harvard/Harris survey, now says rising violence is the single most important issue for the 2022 midterms. “Crime is becoming the next crisis in America,” he concluded, “with overwhelming numbers seeing an increase in crime and Americans want stricter, not looser, enforcement of laws.” There’s no question which party has the advantage on that issue. The question for Democrats is: What can they do to recover?

  Of course, many voters also want to see police reforms and greater transparency. Both are being put in place across the country. Most of all, Americans want police, prosecutors, and judges to do their respective jobs and protect them from predators. That means the left’s push to slash police funding has become a major electoral liability for mainstream Democrats, both nationally and locally. One sign that the political winds have changed is that two progressive cities, Seattle and Minneapolis, which gutted their police budgets last year, now want to increase them. They are not alone.

  Cori Bush spit directly into that wind last week during her CBS interview. Correspondent Vladimir Duthiers asked Bush her response to critics who say it is hypocritical for you to support defunding police departments while she is spending lavishly on her own personal security.

  Bush’s bizarre response: 

  “They would rather I die? You would rather me die? Is that what you want to see? You want to see me die? You know, because that could be the alternative. So either I spent $70,000 on private security over the last few months, and I’m here standing now and able to speak, able to help save 11 million people from being evicted.”

  As if that answer wasn’t bad enough, she added,

  “I have private security because my body is worth being on this planet right now. … I have too much work to do. There are too many people that need help right now for me to allow that.  So if I end up spending $200,000, if I spend 10, 10, 10 more dollars on it, you know what, I get to be here to do the work. So suck it up and defunding the police has to happen.”

  The only way to summarize her response is:

  “I’m far more important than ordinary people, which means protecting me is far more important than protecting them.”

  That’s not an appealing message.

  There’s nothing wrong with Bush wanting to stay alive. She might want to acknowledge that other people do, too. Since they can’t afford private security, they count on the police to help. She wants to deny them that help.

  It is political malpractice for Cori Bush to embrace this kind of narcissism, hypocrisy, and cringing victimization on national TV. It’s even worse when your own party is scrambling to limit the self-inflicted damage done by the movement she advocates. Republicans will be happy to re-air that interview again and again. It’s that bad.

  Voters now connect defunding the police with rising crime, and they connect both with the Democrats. Even though party leaders, including Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer, have repeatedly tried to distance themselves from progressive demands to cut police budgets, they haven’t succeeded in the public eye, at least not yet.

  Why do Democrats have such trouble with the crime issue, despite unwavering support from the mainstream media? The problem is all that darn evidence. All the cities that actually did defund police are governed by Democratic mayors and city councils. All the lax prosecutors, so reluctant to charge violent offenders and brazen shoplifters, are self-proclaimed “Justice Democrats.” Almost all the local judges who release prisoners are Democrats. Almost all the support for “no cash bail” comes from Democrats and has been implemented in blue cities and states. Those policies, supported by leaders like Vice President Kamala Harris, put perps back on the streets only hours after they’ve been charged with violent crimes. It was the Democrats who held a national convention last year and didn’t mention the rioting and looting going on for months. To their credit, party leaders now have to routinely say they oppose defunding police. But no top Democrat — not Biden, not Schumer, not Pelosi — has been brave enough to flatly condemn the progressives who support it and take them on.  The public has noticed. Voters realize that strident demands to cut police budgets, eliminate cash bail, and reduce serious crime to misdemeanors are elements of a larger progressive wish list that would limit all facets of law enforcement and criminal punishment.

  Many of those wishes are being granted. In city after city, police know they no longer have the support of top elected officials. They know many of their arrests won’t be prosecuted. The predictable result is that more police are retiring and those who remain are spending more time sitting in squad cars and less time chasing criminals. They know hoodlums can walk into a store, scoop up $950 worth of merchandise, and stroll out to their car with implicit permission from city officials. District attorneys in several major cities, all of them Democrats, consider these thefts only misdemeanors and won’t bother prosecuting. So, police figure, “Why bother trying to catch the robbers?”

  The inevitable public revulsion poses a political challenge that goes well beyond one or two Squad members with bad ideas and bully pulpits. True, some have pushed the defunding agenda more aggressively than others, but voters believe the whole party is implicated. Now that moderate members want to change course, those on the left, like Cori Bush, want to keep digging and proudly shouting their message to the world. Their colleagues on the center-left haven’t figured a way to climb out of the hole.

  Next November, voters will bury them even deeper if their main concerns are rising crime and lawlessness on the southern border. If that reckoning comes, Democrats will have only themselves to blame.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 21:40

• A "Summer Chill" Looms For Consumers As Child Tax Credits Fail To Boost Spending
  A “Summer Chill” Looms For Consumers As Child Tax Credits Fail To Boost Spending

  Last week we warned that the US economy was facing a “sudden negative change” as consumer spending was set to collapse, and we even warned that the retail sales data this week would be atrocious. Well it was, and whether due to the end of stimmy checks, the evaporation of savings, or a fresh round of Delta covid restrictions, suddenly the worst kept secret – that the US consumer is once again on the verge of tapping out – is fully in the public, leading to many prominent banks slashing their GDP forecasts for the current and future quarters, most notably Goldman which took a machete to its 8.5% Q3 GDP forecast and now sees just 5.5% even as it warns of a stagflationary burst of even higher inflation.

  

  And with Goldman also pointing out – well after the fact, and well after its chief equity strategist hiked his S&P price target to 4,700 from 4,300 as if the two are now completely unlinked (spoiler alert: in today’s centrally planned markets they are) – that consumer spending declined 3% in just the past few weeks…

  

  … other banks are joining in the fray, with Bank of America’s Michelle Meyer pointing out on Thursday that total card spending, based on BAC aggregated credit and debit cards, has hit a “summer chill” slowing to just 11% 2-year growth rate for the 7-days ending August 14th, while the 1-year growth rate is similarly at 11% as the 1 and 2-year rates have now converged for total spending although remain wide apart for a number of categories.

  The charts below shows just how sharp the slowdown and normalization in spending has been in recent weeks as US consumers are reverting to their pre-covid spending patterns, albeit in a time when prices are exploding, and it is only a matter of time before we enter the “trapdoor” plunge phase once all accumulated purchasing power disappears.

  

  According to Meyer, the main reason behind the moderation over the last several weeks has been due to a pullback in spending on leisure services, which are defined as travel (airlines + lodging), entertainment and restaurants/bars. The 2-year growth rate of this composite is running at 0.6% for the latest week, down from the recent high of 2.5% in late June.

  

  A more detailed look shows a slowdown across virtually all leisure sectors, from airlines to lodging and entertainment, although one can see that spending on durable goods is also starting to take on water.

  

  When netting out leisure service spending, BofA still sees a drop in the growth rate of spending from early July but some stability over the last few weeks. According to Meyer, the weakening in leisure services spending is responsible for just more than a quarter of the slowdown in total card spending over the last four weeks. Which also means that non-leisure spending is taking a big hit too as the next series of charts shows. Tangentially, as exhibit 28 shows, the pool bubble has also burst.

  

  Finally, what about the stimmies? Well, with the bulk of Biden’s trillions now spent, there was a modest bounce in household spending when the welfare president started sending out child tax credit. However, while CTC recipients did spend in excess of others for 2 weeks after they got the check, they then fell below for the following two weeks as they spent the entire stimulus and then hunkered down more than non-recipient households until the next child tax credit.

  

  One can’t help but dread what happens to the US economy – and society – when one day the stimmies, the universal basic income, the emergency benefits and so on, finally come to an end.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 21:20

• The Fall Of An American Empire
  The Fall Of An American Empire

  By Philip Cunliffe, senior lecturer in Politics and International Relations at the University of Kent. His most recent books include Cosmopolitan Dystopia: International Intervention and the Failure of the West, as published originally in Spiked.

  The fall of Kabul to Taliban forces on 15 August marks the end of a long cycle of international politics.

  The original justification for the Western military intervention in Afghanistan back in 2001 was state failure. It was said that the absence of centralised public authority and power in the mountains and deserts of Afghanistan provided shelter for the al-Qaeda terror network, allowing it to take root and launch terrorist attacks against the US.

  According to the US national security adviser of the time, Condoleeza Rice, the security problem of the 21st century was not strong, expansionist states aggressing against their neighbours. Rather, it was weak, failing ones, whose disorder and disarray spread across borders, and through regions. These failing states therefore necessitated external intervention.

  The disintegration of the Afghan government and army over the past few weeks exposes the folly of such an approach. After two decades of a nation-building effort that has cost many thousands of lives, and trillions of dollars, the US has succeeded only in substituting one failed state for another. And so it is now the Taliban that very clearly commands more authority around Afghanistan rather than the Kabul government. The US wasn’t building an Afghan nation state – it was building a failed state.

  It is too easy to blame the Afghans themselves for the Taliban’s victory, as President Biden sought to do in his address to the nation. Doubtless the corruption of the new Afghan elite played a significant part in weakening the institutions of the US-backed Kabul regime. But given it was the US that was driving this state-building project with so much treasure and blood, an explanation of the Afghan state’s collapse cannot stop at the borders of Afghanistan. If Afghanistan was indeed a de facto province of an American empire, then the explanation for the fall of that province must be rooted in the core of the empire, not in its periphery. As Condoleeza Rice herself suggested throughout the early 2000s, the political project of state-building was always larger than Afghanistan itself – and, in truth, it always coincided with a staggered cycle of imperial decline.

  The origin of state-building

  The state-building policies and structures that emerged at the end of the 1990s were prompted less by the emergence of al-Qaeda-style terrorism than a much earlier political failure.

  This failure centred on Western powers’ use of economic ‘shock therapy’, sanctions regimes and cruise-missile diplomacy to flatten the political and social order of the old Eastern bloc and Third World during the 1980s and especially the early 1990s. As these already battered states and societies, from the former Yugolslavia to vast swathes of Africa, were shredded by the rapid introduction of market economies, or pulverised by UN coalitions and humanitarian interventions, it became clear that Western powers had destroyed one order, but had failed to replace it. They realised that new institutions of centralised control had to be re-established to replace the old political order. They realised that, to function effectively, the operation of the market and globalised capitalism required a whole infrastructure of civil society, public institutions, regulatory agencies, laws and security apparatuses. State-building thus emerged as a corrective to the destructive excesses of the 1980s and early 1990s.

  However, destroying old orders proved easier than building new ones – as Afghanistan has shown.

  Although the al-Qaeda terror network had its base in Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001, its alliance with the Taliban was not a natural one. The Taliban of the 1990s might have been as doctrinaire as al-Qaeda, but it was comprised of poor and rural Afghans, who were largely ignorant of the outside world – theirs was a revolt of the village against urban modernity and technology as much as anything else. Hence the Taliban banned mobile phones, cameras and televisions when it swept into Kabul in 1996. Contrast that with the leader of the al-Qaeda network, Osama bin Laden. He was very much a modern Islamist in that he saw Islam as a source of ideological renewal for a godless modern world. He courted journalistic interviews and fired off his videotaped pronouncements and recordings to Al Jazeera.

  Once the US decided, in 2001, that conquest rather than police and intelligence operations was to be its chosen modus operandi against terrorist cells like those of al-Qaeda, state-building was inevitable. The US invasion swiftly overthrew the ragtag militias of the Taliban, necessitating the creation of a substitute political order to replace the tribal coalition and rural theocracy that underpinned Taliban rule. This inaugurated the process of state-building in Afghanistan, built up in cooperation with the UN and an occupying NATO force.

  State-building was not restricted to Afghanistan, however. It became a new imperial project to help cohere the West’s Cold War victory after the failures of the 1990s. State-building spawned a whole cadre of globalised technocrats, governance experts, aid workers, constitutional experts, peacekeepers, administrators, counter-insurgency theorists, spooks and lawyers. In some cases, it even produced outright viceroys, with protectorates imposed on places such as Kosovo and East Timor.

  Ashraf Ghani, the Afghan president who has fled Kabul for the United Arab Emirates, is a case in point. He himself was a technocrat, whose academic training was in the anthropology of early modernisation. Indeed, the US military even drew anthropologists into its war effort in Afghanistan under the ‘Human Terrain’ programme.

  

  State-building was nothing if not frenzied. Court houses were built, women’s NGOs funded, parliamentary buildings thrown up, and new police forces and armies assembled, sometimes from the militias of former warlords. War-torn capital cities throughout the Balkans and Africa became overnight boom towns with vast infusions of aid, while the rural hinterlands remained largely untouched, and often wracked by permanent insurgency and constantly collapsing ceasefires, as in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

  But, like the shock therapy of the 1990s, state-building quickly ran up against its own limits. While it was easy to throw up new buildings, and subsidise local elites and middle classes with NGO funds, it was harder to legitimise this new order. After all, these fragile new institutions were dependent on foreign armies, whether NATO forces or United Nations peacekeepers, to keep warlords and insurgents at bay. The state-builders were caught up in numerous binds: they wished to create long-lasting institutions of independent statehood, yet at the same time they expected these new institutions to enact Western rather than indigenous policymaking. Rather than representing their own citizens, these jerry-rigged new states were intended to act as transmission belts for policies concocted by Western policymakers and international agencies.

  Humanitarian compassion and altruism were sufficient to justify state-building from the outside as a new civilising mission. Yet at the same time, devolving political responsibility to local institutions proved impossible. After all, painting a country’s inhabitants as victims of human-rights abuses may justify the external interventions in the first place. But victimhood, by its very definition, is no basis on which to build independent, politically self-sufficient nations.

  The state-builders had long been aware of the problem of the lack of legitimacy of these new states. This generated a list of technocratic euphemisms such as ‘capacity-building’, ‘local ownership’, ‘partnership’, ‘bottom-up’ and ‘grassroots’. These tried to fill in for the very thing these states really lacked – namely, political legitimacy. Moreover, there was nothing behind these terms, not least because the problem ran deeper than how to make local populations connect to Western-led institutions.

  Many analysts and eventually historians will pore over the fall of Kabul and the many contributing factors that led to the implosion of the US’s client state. Some will look to parse the inter-ethnic relations among Tajiks, Uzbeks and Pashtun Afghans. And others will try to trace the bank accounts through which the cronies of ex-president Ashraf Ghani siphoned off billions. But there is no avoiding the ultimate issue – the lack of political legitimacy that led to the collapse of the Afghan state has to be rooted at the core of the global political system, and not in a remote imperial outpost.

  For all the death and hardship visited upon Afghanistan during this 20-year-long occupation, as long as state-building could be justified in humanitarian terms – defending the rights of Afghan women and children against rapacious fundamentalists, for instance – it could continue interminably. The war in Afghanistan has already lasted two decades, ran the thinking, so what’s a few more?

  What ultimately undercut the war effort was not any battlefield loss to the Taliban, but Donald Trump. In his sloganeering for an ‘America First’ foreign policy, and in his efforts to delegitimise state security agencies and bureaucracies, he kept raising a single question to which no one had an answer – what was the US self-interest in these never-ending and supposedly altruistic interventions? Given the grandiloquent proportions to which US foreign-policy ambition had swollen, it was easily punctured by this simple but sharp question. Twenty years after the original invasion of Afghanistan, and nearly a decade after the assassination of Osama bin Laden, no one had any meaningful answer to Trump’s question.

  The very election of Trump himself and the turbulence that shadowed his administration indicated a deeper problem for US foreign policy – the collapse of political legitimacy at the core of this new empire. How could the US expect to build legitimate states in the periphery of the international system, when its own domestic legitimacy was evaporating?

  The decay of the political order

  This problem was illustrated last summer, when the US government sent in Humvees – still painted in desert tan from decades of Forever Wars in the Middle East – to repress the looting and rioting that had broken out in the wake of Black Lives Matter protests and lockdowns. This display of militarised policing in the midst of a pandemic that threatened to overwhelm ramshackle public-health systems revealed the source of the problem: the US itself is becoming a failing state. After all, it was now deploying its military force against its own citizens, an exercise of power without right. This hints at a domestic political order that is so hollowed out that only its instruments of global empire remain standing – an outsized central bank and an outsized war machine seeking to prop up the global order.

  Indeed, successive US governments have spent a total of $2 trillion on the war effort in Afghanistan. And they have done so while infrastructure has crumbled and de-industrialisation accelerated at home. This demonstrates that, prior to Covid at least, war has become the only legitimate reason for large-scale public spending. Needless to say, much of this spending was recycled to private contractors and arms manufacturers as a de facto public subsidy for US capitalists.

  The fact that the US state was unable to justify public spending, except in terms of maintaining global order through force, in turn exposed something else – the emptiness at the core of the global market system that had emerged after the Cold War.

  As stated above, state-building was developed as a counterpart to the neoliberalism of the 1990s. It was intended to undergird the extension of the market into the developing world. Neoliberalism was expressly counterposed to the state and intended to curb, delegitimise and repress public power over the market. But, at the same time, neoliberalism was always dependent on state power to achieve these aims. As a result, neoliberalism succeeded in delegitimising public power and authority, while also relying on the state to expand the rule of the market. The justification for the exercise of state power and public authority shrivelled away, as the market itself could not generate its own legitimacy or justification in the face of stagnant wages, growing inequality and recurrent financial bubbles. Without an effective justification for the exercise of public power, political order itself inevitably decays: thus state failure is built into the logic of neoliberalism.

  We can see the results today at the core of the global order in the US. There, political life is decaying into oligarchic rule from above and fragmented identity politics from below. And we can see it on the periphery, in places like Afghanistan, where this decay has resulted in warlordism and ethnic strife. This is the globalisation of what the critical theorist Max Horkheimer termed ‘racket society’, in which a social order, underpinned by law and universal principles, disintegrates into various large hierarchies offering protection in return for domination, and devoid of any sense of common interest or general will. In the US this is apparent in an emerging oligarchic state and the various identity groups it sponsors; in the periphery, it is apparent in the predominance of warlords, drug dealers, NGOs, kleptocrats, smugglers, terror networks, UN agencies, peacekeepers and occupying armies. State failure is the result of globalised neoliberalism.

  Perhaps religious fervour and Islamic ideology will be sufficient to enable the new Taliban to offer an alternative to the warlordism and graft of the US-sponsored Ghani regime. Perhaps the Taliban racket will win out over the warlord-NGO-NATO racket, and a new proto-nation might even emerge.

  In the US itself, however, there is no clear answer to the problem of the failing state. For example, the BLM movement not only exposed the declining legitimacy of the US state. It also amplified it in its call to ‘defund the police’ and abolish the forces of public order. BLM, for example, merely wants to turn over burned-down and increasingly violent inner cities to state-funded NGOs and social workers, which constitute the social base of the BLM movement. And so one racket substitutes for another.

  Until we establish a cohesive political vision based on universal principles and a concept of general will that rises above the parochialism of identity groups and their associated rackets, little will change – our states will continue to fail.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 21:00

• San Francisco Prepares To Suspend Cops And Firefighters Who Refuse To Disclose Vaccination Status
  San Francisco Prepares To Suspend Cops And Firefighters Who Refuse To Disclose Vaccination Status

  San Francisco is preparing to suspend nearly two-dozen employees with the police, fire, and sheriff’s departments who have refused to disclose their vaccination status, while hundreds of employees from other departments are about to be similarly put on notice, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

  

  The city sent notifications to 20 employees in the police, fire and sheriff’s departments for failing to meet an Aug. 12 disclosure deadline, while employees from other departments – including Public Health and the Municipal Transportation Agency, could receive similar letters next week.

  The city is recommending a 10-day unpaid suspension for 11 Police Department employees, seven Fire Department employees and two employees in the Sheriff’s Department.

  “The health and well being of city employees and the public we serve are top priorities during our emergency response to COVID-19,” reads the letter which was obtained by the Chronicle. “Your failure to comply with the vaccination status reporting requirement endangers the health and safety of the city’s workforce and the public we serve.”

  The letters will arrive as San Francisco grapples with a surge in coronavirus cases fueled by the delta variant, with the unvaccinated making up the overwhelming majority of those who are hospitalized or killed by the virus. The data shows that the vaccines are extremely safe and very effective at preventing severe COVID-19.

  San Francisco was the first large city in the country to require all municipal employees to be vaccinated against the coronavirus, unless they have a valid religious or medical exemption. All employees had to report their vaccination status to the city by Aug. 12, and those without valid exemptions must be inoculated 10 weeks after the Food and Drug Administration fully approves the vaccines. The Department of Human Resources already gave employees a two-week extension to report their status. -SF Chronicle

  According to the report, the city says that failure to get the jab could eventually lead to firings. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 20:40

• Beijing Will Use Afghan Angst To Pressure US, Distract From Domestic Chaos
  Beijing Will Use Afghan Angst To Pressure US, Distract From Domestic Chaos

  Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

  Even as China’s markets wobble, they will view The Afghan Skedaddle as an opportunity to pressure the US.  

  “When I have learnt what progress has been made in modern gunnery, when I know more of tactics than a novice in a nunnery, and when I’ve a smattering of elemental strategy, I am the very model of a modern Major-General.”

  China’s markets are under pressure from the widening Chinese Communist Party’s regulatory crackdown – which is likely as much about imposing party discipline and control as much as it was ever about consumer protection. But as investors fret about crashing China stocks, rising global uncertainty and the destabilisation caused by the Afghan debacle, the Chinese are likely to up the pressure and further test a distracted US administration. “Interesting times” lie ahead for global markets as the tension threatens to escalate.

  

  China has not been good for me this year.

  This morning, yet again, the front page of the FT is about China Tech stocks being thumped – this time it’s a new data privacy law that’s caused the big names to spiral down another 5%. My personal portfolio has taken a spanking after I switched a modest portion of my personal assets into China late last year. Alibaba is down 48% while Tencent is 44% lower. The basket of China focused funds I also bought into are doing equally not well. None of this has been very helpful – China stock shenanigans are not accelerating my retirement planning.

  It was only 10 months ago – soon after the Ant Financial IPO cancellation bombshell and regulatory defenestration of Jack Ma – that I decided to make a modest pivot into China, eventually raising my allocation to nearly 5%. Soon after I wrote an article for Master Investor comparing East vs West investment possibilities: China vs USA: Which Economy Would You Bet On? I referenced how China is still only 3% of global investment portfolios, but 14% of global market cap, and why investors like Ray Dalio of Bridgewater favoured China.

  I made the bet back then the Chinese – well, let’s be honest, President Xi – had made their point by hammering down the sticky-out-nail Jack Ma, and expected China would resume its seduction of western investors, encouraging them to invest into China as having better long-term valuation and demographic metrics than the overpriced US market and stagnant European stocks.

  Er.. that wasn’t quite the script they’ve followed.

  After a succession of clampdowns on “regulatory grounds” the whole China market has become increasingly tortuous. There is a lot of noise about imposing market discipline, regulatory oversight, customer protection, but it’s equally apparent the Party is taking a far more active role in managing the economy directly by managing entrepreneurs and reminding them whose interests they would do well to serve. The spooks analysing China politics believe Xi is using the clampdown to relieve billionaires of their cash burdens and ability to fund internal political opposition within the party. He’s redirecting control to reward his own supporters.

  Rather than being a capitalist state with communist characteristics, China is looking increasing Stalinist.

  It’s difficult to remain enthusiastic when China is clearly an economy focused on serving the state first, and shareholders a very distant second.

  This week, we’ve seen big-tech data collectors thumped, health-care apps knocked down 15% due to “social concerns”, drinks companies drenched as part of a regulatory attempt to stem heavy drinking at work, and the wealthy have been put on notice that “common prosperity” should outweigh their propensity for western luxury goods. Hermes bags are out. Mao suits are in.

  The bottom line is we just don’t know what China will decide to attack next. Just a few weeks ago one of my chums, Will Nutting, was warning how European luxury good makers were all at long-term highs, but that no one on Wall Street was even pondering the sustainability of China luxury demand in the face of a likely government pogrom. Go figure what it means for Tesla.

  It’s all terribly confusing for global investors….. China and South-East Asia are driving global growth, have expanding middle classes looking to consume, and are showing themselves to be more resilient economies than the tired old occidental economies of the West… In a simple world, the choice between tired, bureaucratic, red-tape bound Europe or thriving Asia would be a no-brainer. Instead, we are struggling to reconcile Xi’s apparent wholesale destruction of China market value.

  The question is why is China apparently running such risks with its economy? There are multiple possible answers to with the party demonstrating its control, encouraging domestic consumption, and because low foreign investment is not a problem. China can afford to do without and is relatively indifferent to investor opinion. They don’t particularly care – knowing western legal institutions will protect their overseas investments, while making their own rules domestically. They know the global economy will recover, and they want to ensure they grab and hold the largest possible slice of it. They will do that by replacing the USA.

  And if they secure borders in the South China Seas and can grab back Taiwan while the West is distracted – then even better.

  An all-out war with the USA is not in China’s interest. They know that and the Americans know that… But…. this is definitely the time for China to challenge a befuddled America.

  America remains, on paper, the most powerful nation on the planet. The conventional wisdom is its 10 Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carriers could each take out a mid-sized nation’s entire airforce. Its 157 B-52, B-1 and B-2 strategic bombers are effectively unstoppable. Over 3500 tactical aircraft ensure its armies are likely to hold air-superiority over any theatre, allowing the well equipped army to puts boots on any ground they care to. The US spends as much on defence as the next 7 nations combined (China, Saudi, Russia, UK, France, India and Japan, in that order).

  America’s service men and women are undoubtedly well-motivated, extremely well-trained and superbly equipped. But, are they as well led?

  Perfect preparation counts for little when the political leadership and state agencies that manage the US look dysfunctional. There is much written about how America’s Generals and Admirals spend more time on Woke agendas than war-planning.. (which I don’t believe for a millisecond.)

  China will be weighing up the opportunity presented in the wake of the Afghan debacle. America carries a mighty big stick, but can it actually hit anything with it…? Political gridlock between the Reds and Blues guarantees nothing happens, the parties themselves are riven by factionalism and can barely present coherent strategy, while the agencies of state covering security, defence and intelligence services have been politicised, and become bureaucratic and sclerotic.

  On the advice of a friend and mentor I watched President Eisenhower’s end-of-office televised speech from Jan 1961 as he stepped down to make way for JFK to usher in the new Camelot. The speech is famous due to Ike’s warning about the growth and rising influence of the “Military Industrial Complex” – and how more and more defence spending may ultimately deliver less and less defence for an ever higher cost, but he also makes prophetic comments about his role working with Congress as a facilitator to deliver a Better America to the nation.

  Ike’s farewell message is only 15 minutes long – but the intervening 61 years demonstrates we did not listen, how the world has changed, and changed utterly. You can watch it on YouTube.

  The US spends twice as much on its forces than China, but China only needs one of multiple ballistic missiles to take out a carrier. US aircraft are mission capable – but the Chinese know their purloined engine tech means their aircraft break sooner. Not a problem. Build ‘em cheap and stack ‘em high.

  Following the Afghan Skedaddle the Kommentariat has variously blamed Biden, said it’s all Trump’s fault, and that Obama should have stopped it after Bush Jr never should have started it. It’s been easy to pour scorn on the successive administrations for a cataclysm of cascading policy mistakes and errors in Afghanistan.

  But give Joe credit. He made a decision.

  Often the most courageous thing to do is not the hopeless last stand and death before dishonour nonsense, but knowing when to give up. Biden has received zero credit for his spot-on comment that Afghanistan was bound to end chaotically – but he is right, chaos was inevitable. There was no easy way to step out. Its nasty, it’s tough and it hurts – but what was the alternative? 20 more years juicing Afghan corruption?

  Now America faces the backlash from the optics of defeat in Afghanistan; the impression of a people abandoned by American troops slinking away at midnight, which sits uneasy alongside the earlier betrayal of the Kurds in Syria by Trump. Who will now trust America? Ukraine? The Baltic republics? Europe? Taiwan?

  The Chinese will be placing its bets now – testing how far they can they push, and how much more can they do to destabilise America? How can they maximise the political impasse and when should they make their plays..? They will push, push and push some more, and probably step back as often. Meanwhile the Gangster Tsar in Moscow will be looking for opportunities to not only increase the value of his own considerable portfolio of assets, but to snipe and take advantage of the weakened global credibility of the USA.

  All of which begs the question: What’s the right investment strategy in a world of deepening cold war between the USA and China?

  Perversely… I will go with the buy America argument… In a fracturing and uncertain world, then the assets with the greatest safety will remain the liquid US stock market and US Treasuries as the flight to quality argument.

  And at the back of my mind I’ll remember the old adage: “The Americans will always do the right thing, after first exhausting every other possibility.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 20:20

• Arizona Dems Panic Over Upcoming Election Audit Results, Issue Preemptive Rebuttal
  Arizona Dems Panic Over Upcoming Election Audit Results, Issue Preemptive Rebuttal

  Democratic officials in Arizona are sweating over the upcoming results of the 2020 election audit, and have launched a pair of preemptive strikes against a report that could come as soon as next week according to Politico.

  

  In a Thursday rebuttal, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) tried to poke as many holes as possible in the audit – while also trying to reassure people that ballot equipment was tested before and after the election.

  Hobbs called the GOP Senate-led effort “secretive and disorganized,” and claimed that they routinely failed to follow best practices for an audit.

  “All credible audits are characterized by controls, access, and transparency that allow for the processes and procedures to be replicated, if necessary,” reads the rebuttal. “As this report has described, the review conducted by the Senate’s contractors has consistently lacked all three of these factors.”

  One Republican, Maricopa County recorder Stephen Richer, joined Hobbs with a lengthy rebuttal of his own – an open letter to state Republicans casting doubt on the credentials of the auditors, while also defending his own reputation.

  “I will keep fighting for conservatism, and there are many things I would do for the Republican candidate for President, but I won’t lie about the election, and I will not unjustifiably turn my back on the employees of the Board of Supervisors, Recorder’s Office, and Elections Department — my colleagues and friends,” he wrote.

  Since late April, contractors hired by the Republican-controlled state Senate have been reviewing all the ballots cast in Maricopa County, which President Joe Biden won en route to flipping the state, along with examining election equipment.

  The process was initially supposed to take 60 days, but has stretched on well past that. Julie Fischer, a “deputy Senate liaison” for the effort, told POLITICO that the contractors’ report — the firm leading the effort is called Cyber Ninjas — is expected to be submitted to the state Senate on Monday, and a hearing will be scheduled after that.

  Election officials in the state have opposed it nearly every step of the way, including Richer, Hobbs and the GOP-controlled Maricopa County Board of Supervisors. -Politico

  “The only thing that has been consistent about this endeavor has been missed deadlines and having to walk back statements,” said Richer at a Thursday presser, adding “Please look into it before taking whatever the Cyber Ninjas produce as gospel.”

  Read the rest of the report here.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 20:00

• Melvin Capital Was Secretly Short Many More Stocks
  Melvin Capital Was Secretly Short Many More Stocks

  The infamous collapse of Melvin Capital will forever live in the annals of short squeezes gone terribly wrong, but we now learn that it could have been even worse.

  The hedge fund’s various publicly disclosed bearish bets (many of them via puts) including such names as the original meme stock gone wild, Gamestop, was one of the precipitating catalysts for a historic January surge in countless heavily shorted small and mid-cap names. Indeed, Melvin’s short was one of reasons cited in various reports published on WallStreetBets in mid and late 2020 as the clarion call to aggressively start bidding up the names in hopes of sparking a squeeze at the hedge fund. A few months later, that’s exactly what happened and within days Mevlin suffered catastrophic losses, forcing founder Gabe Plotkin to seek a bailout from Citadel and Point 72.

  But while all that has been widely publicized, what was unknown until now is that Melvin capital was secretly ramping up its bearish bets in various other heretofore unknown names, and had the daytrading army been aware of these positions the outcome for Melvin could have been even more dire.

  On Monday of this week, the New York-based firm released previously confidential documents that showed it held put options on several previously unknown stocks at the end of December, including on $324 million worth of shares in Beyond Meat. As Bloomberg, which first noted the amended filings observes, it was the second report Melvin released on a delayed basis that identified stocks it had bet against late last year through puts, positions which had been confidential until now; the first one was in April.

  According to the latest disclosures filed in an amended 13F statement, Melvin’s combined SEC filings for the fourth quarter listed put options on stocks that it hadn’t previously disclosed betting against, including Beyond Meat, Helen of Troy, First Majestic Silver and CryoPort Inc. 

  Here are the holdings disclosed in the amended 13F for the Dec 31, reporting period, and which were only made public on Aug 16.

  

  The other amended filing can be found here.

  Plotkin obtained permission from the SEC to delay required disclosures starting in February, after Reddit traders used the fund’s earlier filings to target stocks he had likely sold short.

  THIS FILING LISTS SECURITIES HOLDINGS REPORTED ON THE FORM 13F FILED ON FEBRUARY 16, 2021 PURSUANT TO A REQUEST FOR CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT AND FOR WHICH THE MANAGER IS NO LONGER REQUESTING CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT.

  However, by then the proverbial cat was out of the bag as the army of retail daytraders (whether with or without the implicit guidance and backing of one or more hedge funds such as Senvest) started trading in unison in late January in the opposite direction of Melvin’s puts, an unprecedented move by retail investors that saddled one of Wall Street’s most successful traders with a stunning monthly loss of 55%.

  Meanwhile, as a result of the rushed liquidation at Melvin, even the shares that the fund was secretly short also started surging around late January during the peak of the retail-trader mania, without any public link to Plotkin’s hedge fund. As Bloomberg notes, “the moves confounded Wall Street and even the companies themselves”, although now we know the reason.

  

  Other short bets, such as ADT, Macerich and United Natural Foods also hadn’t shown up in Melvin’s filings for at least a year. Those shares also moved sharply higher in late January – Macerich jumped 75% in the three days through Jan. 27 as Melvin was scrambling to unwind its combined short exposure, creating a gamma meltup that sent the underlying prices of its shorts soaring, only to tumble within a week.

  According to Bloomberg calculations, Plotkin added aggressively to his bets that stocks would decline in the final quarter of 2020 around the time the broader market was melting up, the delayed filings show. The face value of shares covered by Melvin’s put options more than doubled during the fourth quarter to almost $1.6 billion, from $703 million at the end of September.

  But while Melvin was prudent in hiding some of its shorts, it kept many of its prodigious shorts In the public domain and in January, Reddit traders began using Melvin’s previously reported put options as a proxy for the firm’s short positions. Within weeks, they drove prices of heavily shorted stocks to astronomical levels, most famously GameStop which soared to a peak of $483 on Jan. 28 from less than $20 at the start of the year. That forced Melvin to close out its short positions, both those publicly disclosed as well as the secret ones.

  Melvin’s January loss was almost 55%, Bloomberg News reported last month. It was still down about 43% through July.

  How did Plotkin manage to keep much of its bearish  exposure secret?

  As Bloomberg details, in February, Melvin faced a deadline to file the Form 13F that would disclose his holdings at the end of 2020. In that disclosure, the firm took advantage of an SEC loophole that permits fund managers to conceal certain holdings. Melvin released its first confidential amendment to its fourth-quarter report on April 28 and the second one this week. In addition to the first-time positions, they show a jump in the number of put options that Melvin held on earlier targets, including six-fold increases in its bets against ViacomCBS Inc. and Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. By late January, rising stock prices had pushed the face value of Melvin’s year-end put positions to $4.4 billion.

  And while Bloomberg’s conclusion is that “it could have been worse if the fund made the same bets entirely through short sales”, we are not so sure: after all this is a market where gamma squeezes – which are the result of heavy option trades where dealers have to take the other side of the trade, creating a self-reinforcing feedback loop – are now the norm as Tesla first showed in 2020. As such, one can make the argument that Melvin’s panicked unwind of its entire put book may have had an even greater impact on the value of the underlying stock than had the fund been merely short the stock. Considering Melvin’s billions in losses in just a few days from being forced to liquidate a handful of Put positions, we think it would agree.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 19:27

• 61% Of Taxpayers, Or More Than 100 Million US Households, Paid No Federal Income Taxes Last Year
  61% Of Taxpayers, Or More Than 100 Million US Households, Paid No Federal Income Taxes Last Year

  The majority of US taxpayers – 61% – paid no federal income taxes last year due to the pandemic and ensuing policy response, according to CNBC, citing a new report by the Tax Policy Center.

  

  The pandemic and federal stimulus led to a huge spike in the number of Americans who either owed no federal income tax or received tax credits from the government. According to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, 107 million households owed no income taxes in 2020, up from 76 million — or 44% of all taxpayers — in 2019. -CNBC

  “It’s a really big number,” said Tax Policy Center fellow, Howard Gleckman, adding “It’s also really transitory.”

  According to Gleckman, high unemployment combined with large stimulus checks and generous tax credit programs (set to expire after 2022) account for the majority of the spike. He expects the share of nontaxpayers to fall starting next year.

  The share of Americans who pay zero income taxes is expected to stay high, at around 57% this year, according to the Tax Policy Center. It’s expected to fall back down to 42% in 2022 and remain at around 41% or 42% through 2025, “assuming the economy continues to rebound and several temporary tax benefits expire as scheduled,” Gleckman said. -CNBC

  Helping to ease the tax burden were pandemic-related increases in the child tax credit, the earned income tax credit, and the child and the dependent care tax credit – which together erased federal taxes owed for millions of American families.

  This year, no household making under $28,000 will pay any federal taxes due to the credits and tax changes, according to the report – whereas around 43% of middle-income households are expected to pay federal income tax. According to Gleckman, the offsets in dollar terms were small for many families.

  “Imagine somebody who would have owed $1,500 in 2020 income tax until they got two stimulus payments — $1,200 in April and $600 in December,” he told CNBC. “That threw them into the category of nonpayers. While the payments resulted in a large percentage increase in their after-tax income, the dollar amount of their tax cut was only a tiny fraction of a high-income filer who received a tax cut of, say, $30,000 from the 2017 [Tax Cuts and Jobs Act], yet still owed some tax.”

  In 2020, the top 20% of taxpayers paid 78% of federal income taxes, according to the Tax Policy Center, which was up from 68% in 2019. The top 1% of taxpayers paid 28% of taxes in 2020, up from 25% in 2019.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 19:20

• Biden Falsely Claims The US Doesn't Have A Military Presence In Syria
  Biden Falsely Claims The US Doesn’t Have A Military Presence In Syria

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  President Biden falsely claimed that the US does not have a military presence in Syria when defending his decision to pull out of Afghanistan. In an interview with ABC on Wednesday night, Biden pointed to the so-called “threats in Syria and Africa.

  “There’s a significantly greater threat to the United States from Syria. There’s a significantly greater threat from East Africa. There’s significant greater threat to other places in the world than it is from the mountains of Afghanistan.” he said. “We don’t have military in Syria to make sure that we’re gonna be protected.”

  

  There has been a presence of US troops in Syria since the Obama administration. There are currently about 900 US soldiers in the country’s northeast. On paper, the US presence is about supporting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against ISIS. But the occupation is also a part of Washington’s economic war against Damascus.

  The region of Syria where US troops are deployed is where most of the country’s oil fields are located. By occupying the area, the US is keeping the vital resource out of the Syrian government’s hands. The US also maintains crippling sanctions on Syria that specifically target the energy and construction sectors, making it difficult for the country to rebuild after 10 years of war.

  The Biden administration has no plans to pull out of Syria, and Biden’s comments suggest the US might be preparing to send more troops. The US recently announced it is ending its “combat” mission in Iraq, but troops will remain in an advisory role indefinitely. Part of the reason the US doesn’t want to give up its bases in Iraq is that they support the occupation of Syria.

  👀 Biden incorrectly says the U.S. has no troops in Syria. We have 900 in Syria, more than a third of what we had in #Afghanistan.

  The Commander-in-Chief should know this. pic.twitter.com/lDwhjWPsfU

  — John Cooper (@thejcoop) August 19, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Biden recently escalated airstrikes against al-Shabaab in Somalia, another region he claims there are threats facing the US. At the end of July and early August, the US bombed Somalia three times after a long pause in drone strikes in the country.

  Biden tells ABC: “We don’t have military in Syria”

  Pentagon: We have 900 U.S. troops in Syria

  — Lucas Tomlinson (@LucasFoxNews) August 19, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  US officials claim al-Shabaab is a threat to the US homeland due to their al-Qaeda affiliation. But the reality is, al-Shabaab is a local group that only pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda after years of fighting the US and its proxies, including a US-backed Ethiopian invasion of Somalia. The first attack al-Shabaab took credit for was in 2007 against Ethiopian soldiers in Mogadishu. It wasn’t until 2012 that the group pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda.

  The US is also expanding special forces operations across the African continent. Earlier this week, the president of the Democratic Republic of Congo said he authorized the deployment of US special operations forces to his country.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 19:00

• NYC To Require Vax Card And Proof Of ID For Indoor Activities
  NYC To Require Vax Card And Proof Of ID For Indoor Activities

  Those hoping to enter restaurants, gyms, entertainment venues and other business in New York City will need to show proof of vaccination and ID, according to a Friday morning tweet by City Councilmember Mark D. Levine.

  

  “NYC’s new vaccination screening program for indoor dining etc requires that you show proof of vax *and* ID,” he tweeted, adding “The ID requirement is to help reduce fraud.”

  He then directs people without an ID to New York’s ‘IDNYC‘ service to obtain one.

  The ID requirement is to help reduce fraud. Venues covered by the vax screening program are required to check ID for those 18+. Checking ID for 12+ is optional.

  The NYC Covid Safe app allows you to upload a picture of your ID if you don’t want to carry it.

  — Mark D. Levine (@MarkLevineNYC) August 20, 2021

  Keep in mind that the crux of Democrats’ argument against voter ID is that it’s racist to force minorities to obtain identification due to various socioeconomic factors.

  Can I then use that ID to vote?

  — red light (@RedsLight) August 20, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsAcceptable forms of vaccination proof include a CDC-issued vaccine card, the New York State Excelsior Pass, or the NYC COVID Safe app. A photograph of a vaccination card is not acceptable.

  As the NYT reported on Thursday, rolling out the Excelsior Pass will cost taxpayers roughly $27 million. So far over 3.5 million people have already obtained one, which includes a QR code that can be stored on a smartphone or printed out.

  The app verifies applications against city and state vaccination records, and the code is generated the day after someone is considered fully vaccinated, which is 15 days after the final shot.

  Through a Freedom of Information Request, the Surveillance Technology Oversight Project, an advocacy group that has expressed concern about the privacy and security implications of vaccine passports, received the latest contract between the state and I.B.M., which is developing the app. –NYT

  “Just buy into this because it’s going to work for all of us, is going to make us all safer,” NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) said on Monday.

  Businesses have just over three more weeks before the rules go into effect on September 13, and apply to everyone in the city in settings ranging from coffee shops, to yoga studios, to strip clubs according to ABC7NY.

  Exceptions include children under 12, athletes, contractors and some performers who don’t live in the city, as well as ‘church potlucks, community centers, office buildings, house parties – even if they’re catered – and people ducking in somewhere to pick up food or use the bathroom.’

  Businesses not enforcing the rule face a $1,000 fine for the first offense, $2,000 for the second, and $5,000 for the third.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 18:40

• Watch: Oliver North Warns Taliban Have Names, Addresses, Phone Numbers Of Everyone Who Worked With US In Afghanistan
  Watch: Oliver North Warns Taliban Have Names, Addresses, Phone Numbers Of Everyone Who Worked With US In Afghanistan

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  Appearing on Hannity Thursday, Lt. Col. Oliver North warned that the Taliban has managed to obtain the personal details of everyone who worked with the US in Afghanistan, and are using the information to hunt down and execute people.

  

  “They’ve got the bank records. They got it all thanks to the embassy… It is being reported that the Taliban has captured the payroll data from the American embassy and the Kabul banks showing the names, addresses and phone numbers for locals now being hunted down,” North stated.

  North also warned that the Taliban have captured US weapons, including drones that can be sold off to and reverse engineered by Russian, Chinese and Pakistani intelligence, causing a major national security threat.

  Watch:

  North also revealed that Anti-Taliban resistance groups in the Panjshir Valley have called him appealing for help, prompting the Colonel to ask “is anyone in the US government answering the phone?”

  Amrullah Saleh, Vice President of Afghanistan and Ahmad Massoud, son of Ahmad Shah Massoud spotted in Panjshir.They are bringing all Anti-Taliban commanders together in Panjshir. This province is still free from Taliban. pic.twitter.com/bgb8hUdfwi

  — Sudhir Chaudhary (@sudhirchaudhary) August 16, 2021

  North also warned that Communist Chinese agents are reported to be on hand in Afghanistan working with the Taliban against US interests.

  North stated that “If Biden can’t figure out how to deal with these problems, he ought to step down.”

  He continued, “The scary part of that is that in every case of a president not finishing his term, you know who becomes the president. That’s a scary prospect too.”

  North slammed the administration, noting “the incompetence is at every level of this administration, it goes to the top of the Pentagon, the top of the State Department, the top of the CIA. The incompetence is extraordinary, I hate to say that.”

  North’s comments come as it was revealed that, despite Biden’s claims that ‘chaos was always factored in’ to the withdrawal, officials at the Kabul embassy directly warned him about the imminent danger of the Taliban taking control in JULY.

  The Wall Street Journal reports that embassy officials in Kabul sent a memo to Secretary of State Antony Blinken as well as other State Department officials on July 13th warning of the exact scenario that has unfolded.

  An internal State Department cable in July warned of the Taliban’s quick advance and Kabul’s collapse https://t.co/ShrTh86phg

  — Greta Van Susteren (@greta) August 20, 2021

  “About two dozen State Dept officials serving at Kabul embassy sent an internal memo to Secretary of State Blinken & another top State Dept official last month warning of the potential collapse of Kabul soon after the Aug. 31 troop withdrawal deadline.”https://t.co/y9c5rN554o pic.twitter.com/vYI5NqCJxx

  — Jerry Dunleavy (@JerryDunleavy) August 19, 2021

  The warning came five days after Biden told America that “The Taliban is not the North Vietnamese Army, they’re not. They’re not remotely comparable in terms of capability. There’s going to be no circumstance for you to see people being lifted off the roof of an embassy of the United States from Afghanistan.”

  “The Taliban is not the North Vietnamese Army, they’re not. They’re not remotely comparable in terms of capability. There’s going to be no circumstance for you to see people being lifted off the roof of an embassy of the United States from Afghanistan.” – Joe Biden, July 8, 2021

  — Ben Domenech (@bdomenech) August 15, 2021

  The Taliban is now in control of more of Afghanistan than it was in 2001:

  This map shows Taliban control of Afghanistan in 2001 vs. 2021 pic.twitter.com/vubGLoft8c

  — Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) August 16, 2021

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  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 18:20

• FBI Shoots Down Dem 'Conspiracy Theory' That Jan. 6 Capitol Riot Was Pre-Planned
  FBI Shoots Down Dem ‘Conspiracy Theory’ That Jan. 6 Capitol Riot Was Pre-Planned

  Many Democratic leaders, including – most notably – Nancy Pelosi refuse to let go of the notion that the Jan. 6 “attack” on the Capitol was a terror attack on par with 9/11 or the Pulse nightclub shootings. Why? Because, they claim, the whole seige was planned and perpetrated by shadowy militia groups like the Oath Keepers, working in concert with Republican lawmakers.

  Dems also blame President Trump for instigating the incident (the supposed reason behind Twitter and Facebook banning his accounts).

  

  But according to a scoop from Reuters published Friday, prosecutors who once planned to try and lay charges of sedition, conspiracy or other serious offenses against members of the Oath Keepers and other militia groups have been stymied by the reality of what actually happened. And now that the first (surprisingly stiff) jail sentences have been handed down, the FBI has apparently determined that there’s “scant evidence” to suggest that the events of Jan. 6 resulted from an “organized plot”, according to a scoop published by Reuters.

  In other words, it’s a repudiation of prosecutors’ claims that “trespassing plus thought crime = terrorism”.

  The FBI tells Reuters that “95%” of these cases are “one offs”. And even among the “5%” who were more organized, there is still no evidence of a “grand scheme” to overthrow Congress and install President Trump for a second term.

  Though federal officials have arrested more than 570 alleged participants, the FBI at this point believes the violence was not centrally coordinated by far-right groups or prominent supporters of then-President Donald Trump, according to the sources, who have been either directly involved in or briefed regularly on the wide-ranging investigations.

  “Ninety to ninety-five percent of these are one-off cases,” said a former senior law enforcement official with knowledge of the investigation. “Then you have five percent, maybe, of these militia groups that were more closely organized. But there was no grand scheme with Roger Stone and Alex Jones and all of these people to storm the Capitol and take hostages.”

  But that’s not even the most disappointing bit for Pelosi, who is trying to use her Jan. 6 Committee to punish GOP colleagues. Because the FBI also told Reuters that there’s no evidence that Trump, or people around him, were involved in organizing the unrest.

  But the FBI has so far found no evidence that [Trump] or people directly around him were involved in organizing the violence, according to the four current and former law enforcement officials.

  The report specifically cited “dirty trickster” Roger Stone (who was famously taken into custody by a SWAT team for a perp walk in front of CNN cameras) and InfoWars founder Alex Jones.

  Stone, a veteran Republican operative and self-described “dirty trickster”, and Jones, founder of a conspiracy-driven radio show and webcast, are both allies of Trump and had been involved in pro-Trump events in Washington on Jan. 5, the day before the riot.

  FBI investigators did find that cells of protesters, including followers of the far-right Oath Keepers and Proud Boys groups, had aimed to break into the Capitol. But they found no evidence that the groups had serious plans about what to do if they made it inside, the sources said.

  The findings could also help the 40 or so defendants who belong to militia groups, and are facing more serious conspiracy charges. As we first learned a few weeks ago, prosecutors feel they don’t have enough evidence to lay charges of “seditious conspiracy”, or use the RICO act to target militia groups as if they were an organized criminal gang.

  But one source said there has been little, if any, recent discussion by senior Justice Department officials of filing charges such as “seditious conspiracy” to accuse defendants of trying to overthrow the government. They have also opted not to bring racketeering charges, often used against organized criminal gangs.

  Senior lawmakers have been briefed on the FBI’s findings and find them “credible”, according to Reuters. The ultimate takeaway is this: while some groups may have discussed the rally and attendant protest in advance, and while they ultimately may have “worked together” on the day in question, there’s simply no evidence of a grand conspiracy headed by a single nefarious ringleader (not Stone, not Jones, not even Trump).

  Prosecutors have filed conspiracy charges against 40 of those defendants, alleging that they engaged in some degree of planning before the attack. They alleged that one Proud Boy leader recruited members and urged them to stockpile bulletproof vests and other military-style equipment in the weeks before the attack and on Jan. 6 sent members forward with a plan to split into groups and make multiple entries to the Capitol.

  But so far prosecutors have steered clear of more serious, politically-loaded charges that the sources said had been initially discussed by prosecutors, such as seditious conspiracy or racketeering.

  The FBI’s assessment could prove relevant for a congressional investigation that also aims to determine how that day’s events were organized and by whom.

  With seditious conspiracy now off the table, the most serious charges are likely to be the assault on an office charges, which carry a penalty of up to 20 years in prison.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 18:12

• Liberal Utah Teacher Canned For Going On Pro-Vax, "Trump Sucks" Rant, Calling Parents 'Dumb'
  Liberal Utah Teacher Canned For Going On Pro-Vax, “Trump Sucks” Rant, Calling Parents ‘Dumb’

  A schoolteacher in Lehi, Utah is out of a job after she was caught on camera by a student going off the rails against former President Donald Trump, pushing vaccines, and calling most parents (including her own) ‘dumb.’

  

  “I hate Donald Trump. I’m going to say it. I don’t care what y’all think — Trump sucks,” said Chemistry teacher Leah Kinyon, adding “Don’t tattle on me to the freakin’ admin; they don’t give a crap” (they did).

  Kinyon also told students she would be “super proud” of them for getting vaccinated, adding “I don’t have to be happy about the fact that there’s kids coming in here with their variants that could possibly get me or my family sick.”

  “I would be super proud of you if you chose to get the vaccine,” Kinyon says in the video. “We’ll just keep getting variants over and over until people get vaccinated… It could end in five seconds if people would get vaccinated.”

  The teacher was not wearing a mask while making the comments.

  “This is my classroom, and if you guys are going to put me at risk, you’re going to hear about it,” she added. “Because I have to be here. I don’t have to be happy about the fact that there’s kids coming in here with their variants that could possibly get me or my family sick. That’s rude, and I’m not going to pretend like it’s not.” –Fox13

  She then ranted against the students’ parents, saying “most of” them “are dumber than you.”

  At least one student pushed back, to which Kinyon can be heard saying “You can believe what you want to believe, but keep it quiet in here because I’m probably going to make fun of you.”

  “That’s pathetic that you think that,” she said later, telling a student “You’re the problem with the world.”

  Kinyon was immediately placed on leave after the video went viral. After a brief investigation, district officials announced she was fired.

  “Alpine School District has concluded our investigation of the incident that occured (sic) on August 17, 2021 at Lehi High School. Although the details of a personnel investigation are confidential, the teacher involved is no longer an employee of Alpine School District,” reads a statement.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/20/2021 – 18:00