• The Largest Experiment On Humans Ever Seen
  The Largest Experiment On Humans Ever Seen

  Authored by Rob Slane via TheBlogMiore.com,

  Which is the more reasonable approach a society might take in the outbreak of epidemic:

  1. To quarantine the sick, and take reasonable precautions to stop those who are identified as vulnerable from contracting the illness.

  2. To attempt to “control the virus” by preventing millions of healthy people from having contact with other healthy people.

  To any society prior to 2020, it would have been obvious that the first approach is not only logical and proportionate, but the one least likely to have other unintended and highly destructive consequences. However, to my continued astonishment, many in our society not only believe that the answer is the second, but they somehow believe it to be based on established science.

  

  Now I understand that many who support Lockdown will object to my characterisation of their position. They will say that it is deliberately misleading, since it talks about healthy people, and does not mention the sick. Such objections founder, however, on this undeniable fact: Lockdowns are, by their nature, an entirely untargeted and indiscriminate approach to a health issue, and the prohibiting by law of millions of healthy people from having contact with other healthy people is a feature, not a bug of a policy that was untried and untested before it was first implemented by the Chinese Communist Party in January last year, then copied by many Governments around the world thereafter.

  For some reason, many Lockdownists seem to think that the onus is on Lockdown opponents to disprove their position. But as Dr Malcolm Kendrick points out in his excellent piece – Does Lockdown Work or Not, this is the opposite of how things are supposed to work:

  “The starting point, for any scientific hypothesis, is for the proponents to disprove the null hypothesis. Demanding that those who believe something may not work, to prove that it doesn’t, is to turn the scientific method upside down. You can never prove a negative.”

  Even so, he goes on to point out that most of the countries with the highest deaths per million are those which had fairly stringent Lockdowns, and therefore the data so far most certainly does not show that Lockdowns are effective, even on their own terms. Of course, Covidian Logic always has an answer to this, which is that these Lockdowns weren’t real Lockdowns. They were too little, too late, too soft, too lenient, too short, too small, too purple or something like that! But they can never be wrong. Low death rates show they work. High death rates show they would have worked if only people hadn’t been bad.

  But the main point I wish to make about them is that they are not something that has been proposed, studied or trialled before, but are an entirely new practice, foisted upon the world for the first time in 2020. Which means what? It means that they are an experiment in real time. It means that our society (along with many others) has for the last year, and continues to be for the foreseeable future, subject to an experiment. In fact, the largest psychological, social and experiment ever conducted.

  When I use this sort of language, it tends to meet the following mocking response: “So are you saying it’s all a mass conspiracy? Who’s the puppet-master then?” But this just misses the point. It does not need some Dark Lord sitting over all of it in order to be an experiment, although it has to be said that the likes of Professor Schwab do seem keen on putting themselves forward as pretty good candidates. No, it simply is by definition a psychological, social and economic experiment by the very nature of the fact that the mass quarantining and mass masking of millions of people, which cannot fail to change the psychology, society and economy, are untried, untested methods, based merely on hypothesis, and not on hard data. In fact, the data is still coming in from this enormous experiment, but as Dr Kendrick says, it doesn’t actually look good for the hypothesis:

  “…I would conclude that the observational studies had – thus far – failed to disprove the null hypothesis. In fact, the evidence up to this point could suggest that lockdowns may actually increase the death rate. In short, I would look for another idea.”

  But the psychological, social and economic experimentation are by no means the end of it. We have now moved on to the medical experimentation, by which I mean the giving of so-called “vaccines” to millions of people (so-called because they don’t actually stop people getting the virus, and it is not yet known whether they prevent transmission).

  Incredibly, if you look at the Pfizer BioNTech SE Clinical Study Trial on the US National Library of Medicine Clinical Trials database, you will notice something very odd, which is that the Estimated Study Completion Date is on January 31st 2023. This is:

  “the date on which the last participant in a clinical study was examined or received an intervention/treatment to collect final data for the primary outcome measures, secondary outcome measures, and adverse events.”

  In other words, the medium to long-term side effects of this product cannot possibly be known, because the study is still ongoing. The long and short of it, as Professor Sucharit Bhakdi points out in this excellent interview (watch it soon before the YouTube Gatekeepers scrub it) is this: every single person now getting these jabs is effectively an unwitting test subject in the largest medical experiment ever carried out, having been asked to give their consent to receive a product injected into their bodies without being properly informed as to the status of the product.

  Simply put, neither those administering these jabs nor those receiving them can have any idea of the potential medium to long-term consequences of these things, because the companies producing them have not completed the studies on them. And no, it is not the mark of an anti-vaxxer to be deeply concerned about this (I am not); it is just the mark of having one’s critical faculties in working order and of caring about what is being done to people – it’s called Loving Your Neighbour as Yourself.

  In summary, both Lockdowns and the “vaccines” are essentially a mass experiment on humanity. The mid to long-term consequences of both are entirely unknown. Future generations will marvel at how the authorities were able to do this, but they will marvel even more at how millions of people acquiesced without much thought. None of this can possibly bode well. We need to humble ourselves and take a long hard look at what we are doing, or allowing to be done to us, as a matter of the utmost urgency.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 02/01/2021 – 02:00

• China Doesn't Have To Lift A Finger To Push Biden Around
  China Doesn’t Have To Lift A Finger To Push Biden Around

  Authored by Gordon Chang via The Gatestone Institute,

  The Biden administration has just endorsed one of China’s most vicious attack lines against the United States.

  The new administration’s actions look as if they are setting a pattern for its responses to Beijing on the disease and other matters.

  On January 26, Biden signed his executive order titled “Memorandum Condemning and Combating Racism, Xenophobia, and Intolerance Against Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders in the United States.”

  

  The order states that during the coronavirus pandemic “inflammatory and xenophobic rhetoric has put Asian American and Pacific Islander persons, families, communities, and businesses at risk.”

  There is nothing wrong with protecting minorities from racism, but racism is not the problem. “Political correctness presages policy incorrectness,” writes the Claremont Institute’s Ben Weingarten on the Newsweek site, commenting on Biden’s executive order. “And when it comes to matters of life and limb, political correctness can kill.”

  Weingarten is correct.

  “Xenophobia” has been a constant Biden theme. On January 31 of last year, President Trump announced the “travel ban,” prohibitions and restrictions on arrivals from China.

  Within moments of the announcement, Biden went on the attack. “This is no time for Donald Trump’s record of hysterical xenophobia and fear mongering to lead the way instead of science,” he said.

  Biden’s campaign said the attack was not in response to the travel ban, yet on the following day the candidate expressed the same thoughts in a tweet: “We need to lead the way with science—not Donald Trump’s record of hysteria, xenophobia, and fear-mongering.”

  There was nothing “xenophobic” about Trump’s travel ban. It was imposed on arrivals from the country where the disease first appeared. The ban, therefore, saved lives, and it would have saved even more if it had been stricter, announced sooner, and had been more rigorously enforced.

  Biden was against the China travel ban, and if he had been president then, the disease would almost certainly have spread faster in America. He was, during the campaign, against all such travel prohibitions.

  Then, Biden’s criticisms of the travel ban aligned perfectly with Beijing’s attacks on Trump—and on the United States.

  Now, Biden is supporting another Chinese propaganda campaign. “The Federal Government must recognize that it has played a role in furthering these xenophobic sentiments through the actions of political leaders, including references to the COVID-19 pandemic by the geographic location of its origin,” declares the January 26 executive order.

  The order is expected to result in a ban, across the federal government, of the use of “China virus,” “Wuhan flu,” and variants.

  President Trump emphasized “China virus” early last year, in response to Beijing’s statements. On March 12, the Chinese foreign ministry launched disinformation attacks, accusing the U.S. of being the origin of the coronavirus disease and hiding its source. An official foreign ministry tweet made explicit the claim that official Chinese sources had been hinting for more than a month: The United States was ground zero for COVID-19.

  Beijing has not given up on this malicious line of attack. This month, Beijing, with absolutely no evidence, has been pointing to Fort Detrick in Maryland as the source of the disease.

  The Chinese regime, which to this day uses geographical names for strains of virus, has been trying to ban any identification of China with the pandemic. Biden, with his executive order, is doing Beijing’s work as Chinese leaders try to deflect blame.

  “The Chinese Communist Party would love to see itself delinked from the coronavirus pandemic that originated on its shores, that it sought to cover up, that it helped spread around the world, and that it has cynically sought to exploit at every turn,” writes Weingarten.

  “So Beijing must have been cheering when it got word of a gift, in this regard, from President Joe Biden.”

  Moreover, Biden, within hours of taking the oath, rejoined the World Health Organization (WHO), something else Beijing wanted because, as a practical matter, it controls the political leadership of that body.

  This decision was especially hideous because WHO was complicit in China’s deliberate spread of the disease. WHO disseminated Beijing’s position that the coronavirus was not readily contagious even though the organization’s senior doctors knew it was highly transmissible. Moreover, WHO championed the Chinese campaign against travel bans.

  Americans died because of these and other indefensible actions on the part of WHO, and now Biden will go back to legitimizing and supporting that organization.

  China’s challenge to America is comprehensive, on every front. So far, Biden has taken steps that certainly encourage Beijing. His rejoining the Paris Agreement, his cancellation of the Keystone XL Pipeline, and his repeal of the ban on Chinese equipment in the American electrical grid, among others, favor, directly or indirectly, Beijing. Also of great concern is the failure of Commerce Secretary nominee Gina Raimondo to confirm that Huawei Technologies will remain on the department’s Entity List.

  Analysts say Beijing is testing Biden. Yes, but so far the Chinese do not need to lift a finger. The new president is giving them what they want, and they are not even having to ask.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 23:40

• Visualizing World Leaders In Positions Of Power Since 1970
  Visualizing World Leaders In Positions Of Power Since 1970

  Who were the world leaders when the Berlin Wall fell? How many women have been heads of state in prominent governments? And who are the newest additions to the list of world leaders?

  This graphic, via VisualCapitalist’s Avery Koop, reveals the leaders of the most influential global powers since 1970. Countries were selected based on the 2020 Most Powerful Countries ranking from the U.S. News & World Report.

  

  Note: Switzerland has been omitted due to the swiftly changing nature of their national leadership.

  The 1970s: Economic Revolutions

  Our graphic starts in 1970, a year in which Leonid Brezhnev ruled the Soviet Union, while on the other side of the Iron Curtain, Willy Brandt was presiding over West Germany.

  In the U.S., Richard Nixon implemented a series of economic shocks to stimulate the economy, but resigned in scandal due to the Watergate tapes in 1974. In the same time period, China was undergoing rapid industrialization and economic hardship under the final years of rule of communist revolutionary Mao Zedong, until his death in 1976.

  In 1975, the King of Saudi Arabia, Faisal bin Abdulaziz Al Saud was assassinated by his nephew. The decade also marked the end of Park Chung-Hee’s dictatorship in South Korea when he was assassinated in 1979.

  To cap off the decade, Margaret Thatcher became the first female prime minister of the United Kingdom in 1979, transforming the British economy using a laissez-faire economic policy that would come to be known as Thatcherism.

  The 1980s: Reaganomics and the Fall of the Wall

  The 1980s saw Ronald Reagan elected in the U.S., beginning an era of deregulation and economic growth. Reagan would actually meet the Soviet Union’s president, Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985 to discuss human rights and nuclear arms control amid the tensions of the Cold War.

  The 1984 assassination of the Indian prime minister, Indira Gandhi was also a defining event of the decade. She was succeeded by her son, Rajiv Gandhi for only seven years before his own assassination in 1991.

  The ‘80s were clearly turbulent times for world leaders, especially towards the end of the decade. In 1989, the Berlin Wall fell and Germany was reunified under chancellor Helmut Kohl. 1989 was also the year when the devastating events occurred at the Tiananmen Square protests in China, under president Deng Xiaoping. The event left a lasting mark on China’s history and politics.

  The 1990s: War 2.0 and the Promise of the EU

  The beginning of a new decade marked the end of the Cold War and the fall of the Soviet Union, leading to Boris Yeltsin’s position as the first president of the Russian Federation. A sense of peace, or at least the knowledge that a finger wasn’t floating above a nuclear launch button at any given moment, brought a sense of global calm.

  However, this does not mean the decade was without conflict. The Gulf War began in 1990, led by the U.S. military’s Commander-in-Chief George H.W. Bush. In the mid-90s, prime minister Yitzhak Rabin of Israel was assassinated by Jewish extremists.

  In spite of this, the ‘90s were a time of optimism for many. In 1993, the European project began. The European Union was founded with the support European leaders like the UK’s prime minister John Major, France’s president Francois Mitterrand, and chancellor Helmut Kohl of Germany.

  The 2000s: Historic Firsts and Power Shifts

  The dawn of a new century had people feeling both hopeful and scared. While Y2K didn’t end the world, many transformative events did occur, such as the 9/11 attacks in New York and the subsequent war on terror led by U.S. president George W. Bush.

  On the other hand, Angela Merkel made history becoming the first female chancellor of Germany in 2005. A few years later, Barack Obama also achieved a momentous ‘first’ as the first African-American president in the United States.

  The 2000s to early 2010s also revealed rapidly changing power shifts in Japan. Shinzō Abe rose to power in 2006, and after five leadership changes in seven years, he eventually circled back, ending up as prime minister again by 2013—a position he held until late 2020.

  

  The 2010s: World Leaders Face Uncertainty

  The 2010s were more than eventful. The Hong Kong protests under Chinese president Xi Jinping, and the annexation of Crimea led by Vladimir Putin, uncovered the wavering dominance of democracy and international law.

  UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s move to introduce a Brexit referendum, resulted in just over half of the British population voting to leave the EU in 2016. This vote led to a rising feeling of protectionism and a shift away from globalization and multilateral cooperation.

  Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election was a shocking political longshot in the same year. Trump’s stint as president will likely have a longstanding impact on the course of American politics.

  Two countries elected their first female leaders in this decade: president Park Geun-Hye in South Korea, and prime minister Julia Gillard in Australia. Here’s a look at which global powers have been led by women in the last 50 years.

  

  2020 to Today

  No one can avoid talking about 2020 without talking about COVID-19. Many world leaders have been praised for their positive handling of the pandemic, such as Angela Merkel in Germany. Others on the other hand, like Boris Johnson, have received critiques for slow responses and mismanagement.

  The year 2020 packed about as much punch on its own as an entire decade does, from geopolitical tensions to a nail-biting 2020 U.S. election. The world is on high alert as the now twice-impeached Trump prepares his transfer of power following the riot at the U.S. Capitol.

  The newest addition to the ranks of world leaders, Joe Biden, has recently taken his place as the 46th president of the United States on January 20, 2021.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 23:15

• America's Trust In The Mainstream Media Hits An All-Time-Low (And "Journalists" Are Shocked)
  America’s Trust In The Mainstream Media Hits An All-Time-Low (And “Journalists” Are Shocked)

  Authored by Robert Wheeler via The Organic Prepper blog,

  Given the 24/7 hysterical propaganda coming from mainstream media, it is easy to see how Americans are clueless about current events’ true nature, whether it be politics, COVID, or foreign policy.

  But, there is some good news.

  

  For the first time, most Americans do not trust the mainstream media

  According to PR firm Edelman’s Annual Trust-Barometer, fewer than half of all Americans trust the mainstream media despite the constant propaganda onslaught. 

  Anyone in journalism or media could have told you long ago this would be the case. The dinosaur knowns as Mainstream Media is dying. Before Google conspired with Zuckerberg and other digital giants to crush alternative media, those alternative outlets competed with and beat MSM.

  MSM and Big Tech attempted to put a stop to that revolution, but the damage was done. Alternative media gave a large portion of the American people a glimpse of real journalism, and, ever since, MSM has been slowly withering.

  Edelman’s “Trust Barometer” shows that Americans’ trust in the media establishment has now hit an all-time low in 2021, falling three more points to 46 percent. For the first time, that figure has dropped below the 50 percent mark.

  Social media is taking blows to the chin, with Americans’ trust ranked at only 27% for content found on Facebook, Twitter, and the like.

  The lack of faith in the mainstream is not exclusive to America. Across the world, belief in social media is only 35 percent. Globally, only 35 percent of people rank social media as trustworthy for “general news and information.”

  Other related information shows that Americans are not happy with journalists or the journalistic profession either. Fifty-six percent of Americans said journalists are “purposely trying to mislead people by saying things they know are false or gross exaggerations.”  Fifty-eight percent agreed that most media outlets were “more concerned with supporting an ideology or political position than informing the public.” This website published an article about how the MSM was goading the public back in 2018.

  Strange and not so strange statistics regarding politics and Big Business

  One unsurprising statistic is that there is a sharp difference between Biden and Trump supporters when breaking up the political party numbers. Only 18 percent of Trump supporters said the mainstream media was trustworthy, while fifty-seven percent of Democrats said MSM was trustworthy. Ironically, though more than half, 57% is far from an overwhelming majority.

  With ties to major corporations and particularly Big Oil, Edelman is not “independent.” These connections were quickly called out by many people online, suggesting the general public may be savvier as to who is behind media outlets than they were before.

  The one strange statistic that emerged from this poll (possibly due to the polling firm’s connections mentioned) was that out of Government, Media, NGOs, and Big Business, the only group trusted by most Americans was Big Business. One factor that might explain more trust in Big Business than other institutions is the veritable war on the American economy declared by the ruling class due to COVID and climate hysteria.

  Journalists respond to Edelman’s report with a plea to help rebuild the infrastructure

  Axios and other “journalists” who responded to Edelman’s 2021 report have seized upon this nugget of trust in Big Business to call on those CEOs to “visibly embrace the news media” to help corporate media outlets.

  “Now it’s time for [CEOs] to use the trust they’ve built up to help rebuild our civic infrastructure,” Axios stated.

  Axios also wanted these CEOs to reach out to Trump supporters who generally have a much more favorable view of Big Business than Biden’s base. Some, however, are wondering if this might hurt the businesses more than help MSM.

  Axios also realized that media distrust was not only an American issue but a global one. Therefore, it was not merely a “function of Donald Trump’s war on ‘fake news.’” But that didn’t stop the “news” site from blaming the audience for daring to put their faith in the journalistic profession. The site even posted links to help worried journalists recognize if they’ve overplayed their hands in their propaganda pieces.

  Note: Trust in companies headquartered in the United States fell four points to another all-time low of 51 percent.

  Many MSM journalists may be shocked at the lack of trust by Americans

  It may be a real eye-opener to many journalists working for mainstream outlets that most of America does not trust them or the corporations they work for. Journalists who are shocked by this seem trapped in their own bubble. After four years of the Russia hoax, “everything is racism” reporting, “largely peaceful” protests immediately turning into “terroristic riots,” Trump supporters know full well they cannot trust MSM. 

  The wave of censorship that has been ongoing in this country for years should confirm that the mainstream media is running scared. Of course, discerning readers already knew mainstream media was nothing more than propaganda, and that’s why, even after Big Tech tried to crush it, the alternative media still survives.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 22:50

• Here's The App Robinhood Investors Are Using To Join Class-Action Lawsuit Over GameStop Quagmire
  Here’s The App Robinhood Investors Are Using To Join Class-Action Lawsuit Over GameStop Quagmire

  Thousands of pissed off Robinhood investors are using a convenient app to join a class action lawsuit against the trading platform over temporary restrictions placed on GameStop and several other stocks, preventing people from buying securities in a move that artificially suppressed prices.

  

  The service, DoNotPay.com, typically helps streamline the often-confusing process for consumers to get refunds and cancel subscriptions. As of Thursday, it can also help people join the Robinhood lawsuit, according to CEO Joshua Browder, who says he received hundreds of messages from enraged users, according to CNBC.

  The lawsuit was filed Thursday in the Southern District of New York after Robinhood temporarily restricted GameStop trading on its platform. That enraged many small investors who were trying to get in on the GameStop trading frenzy of the past few days. –CNBC

  “Robinhood is not acting in the consumer’s best interest,” said Browder. “A lot of users who sign up aren’t the most sophisticated investors. They feel betrayed by a platform that has the literal name Robinhood.”

  By Friday afternoon, approximately 26,000 people had joined the class action, while 4,000 had filed complaints with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to Browder, 400 more had entered arbitration via DoNotPay.

  In order to participate, DoNotPay users need to detail their losses, and provide information on when their trades were halted. The law firm handling the class action is then notified of the potential participant’s desire to join.

  DoNotPay charges an annual fee of $36 for its services.

  “Some people might disagree with that, but we don’t want to have the same business model as Robinhood,” which, Browder said refers to commission-free trades.

  “If you don’t pay for the product, you are the product.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 22:25

• Medical Tyranny: CDC Announces All Travelers Must Wear Two Masks, Threatens Arrest
  Medical Tyranny: CDC Announces All Travelers Must Wear Two Masks, Threatens Arrest

  Authored by Joseph Jankowski via PlanetFreeWill.news,

  The Center for Disease Control has issued a new coronavirus order requiring DOUBLE masks to be worn for all forms of public transportation in the United States.

  

  From CNN:

  The CDC announced an order late Friday that will require people to wear a face mask while using any form of public transportation, including buses, trains, taxis, airplanes, boats, subways or ride-share vehicles while traveling into, within and out of the US.

  The order goes into effect at 11:59 p.m. Monday.

  Masks must be worn while waiting, boarding, traveling and disembarking, it said. The coverings need to be at least two or more layers of breathable fabric secured to the head with ties, ear loops or elastic bands — and scarves and bandanas do not count, the order says.

  The CDC said it reserves the right to enforce the order through criminal penalties, but it “strongly encourages and anticipates widespread voluntary compliance” and expects support from other federal agencies to implement the order.

  

  The tyrannical order comes after Joe Biden signed an executive order last week requiring all travelers to wear mask on federal property.

  The establishment has been recently pushing double masks despite the ongoing rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines and decline in coronavirus deaths.

  White House coronavirus task force leader Dr. Anthony Fauci is now promoting “double masking”, despite saying in March of last year that wearing ANY masks wouldn’t prevent the spread of COVID.

  “So, if you have a physical covering with one layer, you put another layer on, it just makes common sense that it likely would be more effective and that’s the reason why you see people either double masking or doing a version of an N95,” Fauci said this week.

  “Inside Edition” also lauded Biden, Mitt Romney, and Tom Cruise for double masking recently.

  And the New York Times called for Americans to wear a second mask layer earlier this month in an op-ed titled, “One Mask Is Good. Would Two Be Better?“

  With “double masking” now being openly pushed, a new slippery slope of mask wearing has been introduced, with some articles beginning to promote TRIPLE masking to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

  Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) pushed back against the mask insanity earlier this month, urging Americans, “if you’ve had the disease or you’ve been vaccinated and you’re several weeks out from the second dose, throw your mask away.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 22:00

• US Corruption Hits Highest Since 2012 Amid COVID Bailouts & Democracy Doubts
  US Corruption Hits Highest Since 2012 Amid COVID Bailouts & Democracy Doubts

  Transparency International has released its 2020 Corruption Perceptions Index which gauges levels of perceived public sector corruption in 180 countries and territories around the world. The index scores them on a scale of zero (highly corrupt) to 100 (clean) with the average score just 43 out of 100. As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, two thirds of countries scored less than 50. The research found that corruption was rampant across the world in 2020 and that it undermined the response to Covid-19, threatened the global recovery and contributed to democratic backsliding. 

  Transparency International states that 2020 has shown that Covid-19 is not just a health and economic crisis but also a corruption crisis. When it comes to healthcare in particular, corruption takes many forms such as bribery, embezzlement, overpricing and favoritism. Reports of corruption have grown since the pandemic broke out and countless lives were lost due to the issue undermining a fair and equitable global response.

  Countries with high investment in healthcare tended to perform better in the index with corruption diverting money away from essential services. Governments that saw higher corruption levels, regardless of economic development, tended to invest less in their health systems. 

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  In 2020, the countries with the lowest perceived level of public sector corruption were Denmark and New Zealand with a score of 88, followed by Finland, Singapore, Sweden and Switzerland. The opposite end of the index saw South Sudan and Somalia scoring just 12, making them the worst offenders. Syria, Yemen and Venezuela were also among the lowest-scoring countries.

  The United States only came in 25th with a score of 67, its worst performance since 2012.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Transparency International attributes this to its unprecedented $1 trillion Covid-19 relief package which “raised serious anticorruption concerns and marked a significant retreat from longstanding democratic norms promoting accountable government.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 21:35

• Hedge Fund CIO: "No One Stress Tests Their Books For A 7.6 Sigma Move"
  Hedge Fund CIO: “No One Stress Tests Their Books For A 7.6 Sigma Move”

  By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

  “Hear that scream?” he whispered from one of those multi-manager monstrosities. “That’s the sound of someone’s face being ripped off,” he said, uneasy, flashing me a couple risk reports. “Another quarter, another million-year flood,” he said, exasperated, the cataclysms appearing ever more frequently.

  “They’re grossing us down, they got to. No choice.” In the background, a cacophony of sickening howls, grown men begging for mercy, crying like babies, to each his own. “My book is airtight, got my head down,” he said, his factors lightly touched. The wrath of deleverage, passing mercifully by. “What a terrible way to earn a living.” 

  Temple of Doom

  “We waited to hear what Powell thinks about asset bubbles,” said Indiana Jones, our industry’s leading archeologist, explorer. “He admitted markets may be ahead of themselves.” Echoes of irrational exuberance reverberated through the ages. “But he said interest rates aren’t the right weapon for whipping asset bubbles,” he explained. “This then frames the issue as a regulatory matter,” he said. “But they never really define matters of financial stability. Powell passed the problem to Yellen without a clear mechanism for the Treasury or the SEC to respond.”
   
  “So what does Yellen think about financial stability?” asked Indiana. “She doesn’t,” he said, exploring her archives. “In her final Jackson Hole speech, she emphasized the Fed had been on a mission to make banks safe, and they were, so market risks were in the hands of private investors who understood what they were doing.” The Fed obviously changed their minds in March 2020, saving over-leveraged investors from themselves. “So Powell just punted issues of macro stability to Treasury, where Yellen will bury them. And we’re left right back where we started.”
   
  Crazy Ivan

  “Monday, Short-Interest factor had a 3 standard deviation move higher. Hedge Fund factor fell -1.3 standard deviations,” said CO2, gasping for air. “Tuesday, Short Interest factor jumped 5.9 STD. HF ownership fell 2.4 STD,” he added. “Wednesday, Short Interest jumped 7.6 STD. HF ownership fell 4.5 STD.” Risk managers swung the scythe. “Thursday, Short Interest fell 2.5 STD. HF ownership was up 2.3 STD. That’s when Robinhood restricted trading,” said CO2. “Then Friday felt like any other day, despite the S&P 500 puking 1.9%.”
   
  “Our biggest prime broker said this week was one of the largest gross downs they’ve ever seen,” continued CO2, his position tiddy. “No one stress tests their books for a 7.6 standard deviation move.” Last time things went wrong was when the momentum factor turned abruptly. This time some minuscule retail stock sparked the short squeeze. “Obviously there are too many funds running highly-leveraged factor-neutral books,” said CO2. “The breadth of the blowups is widening, the depth of pain deepening. But will anything change? Nope.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 21:10

• Watch: Cargo Ship Battered By Heavy Seas Snaps In Half 
  Watch: Cargo Ship Battered By Heavy Seas Snaps In Half 

  A general cargo ship split in half and sank after it was battered by heavy seas off Turkey’s Black Sea coast, according to Maritime Industry News Agency.

  The vessel ARVIN (International Maritime Organization number: 8874316) was en route from Poti, Georgia to Burgas Bulgaria when the captain made the call to anchor at Bartin to protect the vessel from the storm. 

  Maritime Industry News Agency said, “most probably, the vessel couldn’t stand against strong wind and waves, and either broke in two, or was overwhelmed while being anchored.” 

  

  ARVIN is a river-sea cargo vessel that is not designed to handle the impact of rough seas. This is the likely reason the cargo ship split in half. 

  An alleged video of the incident was uploaded onto YouTube this weekend. It appears ARVIN’s crew, stationed at the bridge of the ship, captured the moment the cargo ship split in half. 

  Watch: ARVIN Splits In Half 

  It was noted by Maritime Industry News Agency the vessel sank, with six crew members rescued, four dead, and three missing. 

  Continuing down the rabbit hole of recent maritime disasters, we noted a California-bound containership lost 750 containers due to “rough seas.”

  Last month, another containership headed for California lost a record 1,816 units, of which 64 are believed to be Dangerous Goods containers.

  How long until climate change is blamed on these maritime disasters? 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 20:45

• Trump Names New Lead Lawyers For Impeachment Defense Team
  Trump Names New Lead Lawyers For Impeachment Defense Team

  Update (2035ET): Trump has secured new legal counsel

  Authored by Janita Kan via The Epoch Times

  

  Former President Donald Trump on Sunday named two attorneys who will lead his impeachment defense legal team.

  The two lawyers who will represent the former president in the upcoming Senate trial are David Schoen, an attorney from Alabama, and Bruce Castor Jr., a former prosecutor in Pennsylvania.

  This comes a day after media reports, citing anonymous sources, said an earlier group of attorneys from South Carolina were no longer participating in the defense.

  South Carolina-based lawyer Butch Bowers had previously been tapped to lead the president’s legal team but parted ways over differing opinions on the direction of the defense arguments, the reports said. Other lawyers on the team who also left were Deborah Barbier and former federal prosecutors Greg Harris, Johnny Gasser, and Josh Howard.

  The Epoch Times reached out to the lawyers for confirmation about their departure.

  Jason Miller, a Trump adviser, confirmed the reports of a reshuffle on Saturday evening, saying that the “final decision on our legal team” had not yet been made.

  On Sunday, Trump’s office released a statement saying that Schoen and Castor would now lead the team, and that Schoen had already been working with Trump and other advisors in preparing for the upcoming trial.

  “It is an honor to represent the 45th President, Donald J. Trump, and the United States Constitution,” Schoen said in the statement.

  The new team has about one week to strategize what direction it will take in the defense. Opening arguments are scheduled to begin on the week of Feb. 8.

  Republicans have begun uniting behind the argument that the Senate impeachment trial of a former president is unconstitutional, a question that has sparked a heated debate among legal scholars and lawmakers.

  “Dem. efforts to impeach a pres. who has already left office is unconstitutional & so bad for our country. In fact, 45 Senators have already voted that it is unconstitutional,” Miller said in a statement.

  On Jan. 26, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) raised a point of order on the Senate floor, forcing the chamber to take a stance on the constitutionality of the upcoming proceedings. The Senate ultimately voted 55-45, meaning that the trial will go ahead. But it also revealed that nearly half of the chamber is of the view that the proceedings are unconstitutional.

  Castor said the upcoming trial is expected to test the “strength of our Constitution.”

  “The strength of our Constitution is about to be tested like never before in our history. It is strong and resilient. A document written for the ages, and it will triumph over partisanship yet again, and always,” he said in the statement.

  Castor previously served as a solicitor general and acting attorney general of Pennsylvania.

  The Democrat-controlled House on Jan. 13 voted 232–197 to impeach Trump on a single article of impeachment, alleging that the president incited an “insurrection” that caused the U.S. Capitol breach on Jan. 6.

  The impeachment was completed in a single seven-hour session and has been criticized by Republicans for its expediency and lack of due process.

  Although Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is going ahead with the impeachment trial, the 55-45 vote for Paul’s order could be an indication that a Trump conviction is unlikely as a two-thirds majority is needed to convict.

  Follow Janita on Twitter: @janitakan

  *  *  *

  Attorneys who had planned on representing President Trump in his upcoming impeachment trial have reportedly quit the case over Trump’s insistence that they present election fraud claims as part of their defense, rather than their recommended strategy of arguing the constitutionality of holding a trial for a former president.

  

  The team, led by South Carolina Lawyer Butch Bowers (recommended by Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC)) and which includes South Carolina lawyer Deborah Barbier, left in what was described by Politico as a “mutual decision.” A third attorney, Josh Howard, was reported by CNN as also leaving the team.

  

  New attorneys are expected to be announced shortly.

  The decision by Bowers, Barbier, and Howard to not join the team raised immediate questions, both about what compelled them to part ways and who actually will play the role of lawyer to Trump when the impeachment trial starts in early February.

  Trump has had difficulty finding legal help for his second impeachment, with some of the lawyers who worked on his first trial saying they wouldn’t do the same this go around.

  Bowers’ hiring was first announced by Trump ally and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham. A longtime Republican attorney, Bowers represented former South Carolina Govs. Mark Sanford and Nikki Haley, and had experience in election law. –Politico

  Trump’s first legal filing in the upcoming impeachment is due on Tuesday.

  In a statement, Trump spokesperson Jason Miller largely ignored the legal rumblings – telling ABC News “We have done much work, but have not made a final decision on our legal team, which will be made shortly,” while slamming the impeachment itself as a sham.

  “The Democrats’ efforts to impeach a president who has already left office is totally unconstitutional and so bad for our country,” said Miller, adding “In fact, 45 Senators have already voted that it is unconstitutional. We have done much work, but have not made a final decision on our legal team, which will be made shortly.”

  Trump was impeached by House Democrats on Jan. 13 on a single article for “incitement of insurrection” after a small group of Trump supporters gained access to the US Capitol, where they wreaked havoc throughout Conressional offices and on chamber floors, before being allowed to casually walk out of the complex.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 20:35

• Morgan Stanley Reveals The "Three Rules For The New D.C."
  Morgan Stanley Reveals The “Three Rules For The New D.C.”

  By Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research at Morgan Stanley

  New presidential administration, same investor hand-wringing: what might come out of DC to push financial markets? If you’re struggling to pull some signal from the noise that is lawmakers hedging statements and debating mundanities like ‘budget reconciliation’, you’re not alone. So here are three shortcuts for making sense of the policy debates in DC that will affect markets in 2021.

  • The rule of two Joes: What’s the difference between an aspirational and enacted policy? In our view it is the difference between those espoused by President Joe Biden and those of Senator Joe Manchin, who along with other senators (i.e., Tester, Sinema, Kelly, Warner) represents the Democratic party’s more centrist cohort. With Democrats in control of the White House and Congress, they can pass a lot of legislation…assuming all 50 Democratic senators can agree on its content. The most progressive and most moderate member must agree, as losing either’s support will tank legislation. We think that the legislative power accrues towards the electorally vulnerable center, then, consistent with historical analogues.

  • Deficits break deadlocks: Even proposals which appear to have party consensus, like infrastructure and healthcare spending, face a challenge…there’s agreement to spend the money, but not how to finance it. Progressives and moderates appear far apart on their tolerance for tax increases. But we don’t expect that this will prevent policy enactment. Deficits will bridge the gap. Expanding the deficit does not appear to be a political liability, as surveys show that voters may permit such action in exchange for popular policies. This dovetails with the new economic orthodoxy of the party, where progressives’ flirtation with MMT and moderates’ Keynesianism for the moment agree that the US can push deficits further before inflation becomes a challenge. Said differently, we don’t think that Democrats will let tax and deficit disagreements get in the way of their spending agenda.

  • Boundaries from budget reconciliation: There are plenty of reasons to not expect Democrats to be able to get enough Senate Republican votes for any of their major initiatives to avoid a filibuster. This actually helps to clarify the policy path for investors, as it means viable legislation is only that which can be passed by a simple majority through a workaround called ‘budget reconciliation’. At the risk of oversimplifying, it helps to think about this process as one where legislators can change the numbers on the federal income statement, but not add or subtract any line items. Because of its painstaking process, reconciliation typically can only be executed once per fiscal year. With those boundaries, investors should expect two major pieces of legislation in 2021 with a focus on reconcilable items: stimulus first and then either infrastructure or healthcare after the October start of the next fiscal year.

  In our view, one clear takeaway from these rules is that 2021 will be another year of US fiscal expansion: Applying those rules to the plans of the new administration and its allies in Congress, we think you end up with a policy path that is net supportive to US growth in 2021. Fiscal stimulus can likely get done earlier in the year, though the final number after intra-party negotiation (‘the rule of two Joes’) is likely closer to US$1 trillion than the US$1.9 trillion proposal. An infrastructure or healthcare plan can likely follow, but not until later in the year (‘boundaries from budget reconciliation’) and likely with more moderate tax hikes than progressives espouse (‘the rule of two Joes’) that don’t fully cover the spending (‘deficits break deadlocks’).

  Importantly, this policy course reinforces the US growth path and outlook for a multi-year bull market, though it does not preclude a near-term correction: As our economists have pointed out, the economy is increasingly on solid footing, with substantial excess household savings ready to be deployed once vaccines enable the normalization of economic behavior later this year. Further fiscal support only underscores that the US economy is accelerating into a new, sustained growth cycle, which should support a multi-year bull market.

  Yet this outlook is not without risk to markets, particularly in the short term. As our equity strategy colleagues have pointed out, there are pockets of the market where excessive optimism is priced in, warranting investor caution. US policy issues are one potential catalyst to watch. In the coming weeks, investors could easily conflate banal headlines about legislative negotiation with the more legitimate risk that Democrats are at an impasse on stimulus. Unless such headlines also reference a shift in view among moderate Democrats that improvement in the COVID-19 outlook has mitigated the need for further action, we would fade such confusion and view any related market weakness as an opportunity.

  [ZH: translation – despite the record drop in US hospitalizations and plunge in covid cases, expect the fearmongering to only get worse in order to allow the Dems the green light to pass trillions more in stimulus.]

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 20:20

• Military Coup Underway In Myanmar As Civilian Leaders Arrested – State TV Off Air, Internet Cut 
  Military Coup Underway In Myanmar As Civilian Leaders Arrested – State TV Off Air, Internet Cut 

  It appears a military coup is underway in the Southeast Asian country of Myanmar (formerly Burma), where a state of confusion has descended on the population with soldiers now patrolling major city streets, and given state TV has also been taken off the air, according to Reuters. 

  The national army says a recent major vote won by the National League for Democracy (NLD) party was “fraudulent,” as a breaking BBC report details:

  Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of Myanmar’s governing National League for Democracy (NLD) party, has been arrested, the spokesman for the party said. It comes amid tensions between the civilian government and the military, stoking fears of a coup.

  The NLD won enough seats in parliament to form a government in November, but the army says the vote was fraudulent.

  The army has called on the government to postpone convening parliament, which was due to take place on Monday.

  

  Image: A rift between Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, left, and commander in chief Min Aung Hlaing had been growing over the past week over contested election results.

  Additionally President Win Myint and senior party figures have been detained as of early morning (local time). 

  Reuters is saying the coup was sparked by an overnight raid:

  Spokesman Myo Nyunt told Reuters by phone that Suu Kyi, President Win Myint and other leaders had been “taken” in the early hours of the morning.

  “I want to tell our people not to respond rashly and I want them to act according to the law,” he said, adding he also expected to be detained.

  And Reuters further suggests a state of chaos in the capital given “phone lines to Naypyitaw, the capital, were not reachable in the early hours of Monday,” and with the military initially refusing to speak to international press.

  ⚠️ Confirmed: Internet disrupted in #Myanmar amid military uprising and reports of detention of civilian leadership; real-time network data show national connectivity falling to 75% of ordinary levels from 3:00 a.m. local time; incident ongoing 📉

  📰 https://t.co/Jgc20OBk27 pic.twitter.com/CgBkyamrP6

  — NetBlocks (@netblocks) January 31, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Myanmar National TV just canceled its program today for both broadcasting and Radio. pic.twitter.com/cddl93RRmO

  — Wai Wai Nu (@waiwainu) January 31, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  International reports are also saying that the internet has been cut in the capital of Naypyitaw, further with soldiers having taken over the streets.

  

  The situation is incredibly tense not only as a near total information blackout is underway, but also also as supporters of the NLD could hit back at the army with sporadic violence or organized militia activity, potentially sliding the country into civil war.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 19:55

• Yes, Virginia, The System Is Clearly Rigged
  Yes, Virginia, The System Is Clearly Rigged

  Authored by Omid Malekan via Medium.com,

  Before sharing my opinion on the WallStreetBets events of last week, I want to make one thing clear: I believe strategies like the ones used to drive the price of Gamestop stock higher are reckless and dangerous. I would never participate in them. They are likely to end badly for the majority of those who get involved.

  

  With that out of the way, let’s review something important that happened last year, when big cap tech stocks like Tesla and Apple started exhibiting unusual volatility to the upside. It turned out that Softbank, one of the largest institutional investors in the world, had been executing a dangerous strategy of buying record amounts of out of the money call options on those stocks. Their actions forced some of the options trading establishment into something called a gamma squeeze, a positive feedback loop that can be thought of as the options markets’ equivalent of a short squeeze. Here’s the FT:

  The surge in purchases of call options — derivatives that give the user the right to buy a stock at a pre-agreed price — has been the talk of Wall Street, as the sheer size of the trades appears to have exacerbated a “melt-up” in many big technology stocks over the past few months. In August alone, Tesla’s share price shot up 74 per cent, while Apple gained 21 per cent, Google’s parent Alphabet rose 10 per cent and Amazon 9 per cent.

  One person familiar with SoftBank’s trades said it was “gobbling up” options on a scale that was even making some people within the organization nervous. “People are caught with their pants down, massively short. This can continue. The whale is still hungry.”

  As the article also points out, it was generally understood that what Softbank was doing (with billions of dollars, no less) was dangerous. Not only could it end badly for them, but it had painted other players into a corner, creating a dangerous dynamic that could reverse abruptly.

  Now, knowing all of that, and having seen the systematic crackdown on retail investors executing a similar strategy last week, we can ask a few simple questions:

  1. How many of Softbank’s service providers refused to execute their trades? How many banks, prime brokers or options dealers said “sorry, this a dangerous strategy that will end badly, plus it puts the rest of the market at risk. You can no longer buy call options on these particular stocks”?

  2. How many veteran financial reporters working in TV or print expressed shock and outrage? How many pontificated out loud about the blatant disregard for fundamental analysis?

  3. How many people at the SEC, Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury or even the White House actively monitored the situation and worried about the safety of the market?

  4. How many people within the traditional financial establishment argued that perhaps we need tighter regulations to prevent this sort of thing from happening?

  You already know the answer to all of these questions. Even if you don’t understand the technical aspects of how Wall Street works, you know in your heart that so-called institutional investors often do risky, dangerous, and (in retrospect) stupid things, but nobody ever stops them. This despite the fact that every once in a while those same strategies end in disaster and put the rest of the financial system, not to mention the broader economy, in jeopardy.

  You know this because in the back of your mind, you remember something about a fund called Long Term Capital, which was run by Nobel prize winners, blowing up in the late 1990s. You lived through the 2008 crisis and may have read a book like Too Big to Fail or seen a movie like The Big Short. You vaguely remember reading about something called a repo crisis in 2019. You recall how just last year, at the start of the Covid crash, central banks like the Federal Reserve had to pump ten times more money into Wall Street than Main Street, even though ordinary people needed the money more.

  What you understand intuitively about all of these events is that the pros — the supposedly sophisticated investors who control the vast majority of capital in the world — somehow fucked up. They did things that enriched them, but ended up costing society as a whole. And yet, not only did nobody in a position of power try to stop them, but regulators and government representatives — the people who are supposed to be looking out for your best interests — argued that your tax dollars should be used to bail them out. Their gambling didn’t make you any richer, but their crapping out still cost you.

  Despite what the financial media would like you to believe, the most surprising thing about last week wasn’t the fact that a bunch of beaten down stocks went flying. Crazy shit happens in the stock market all of the time, especially in an era of record monetization when the Federal Reserve prints money faster than Taylor Swift releases albums.

  Most of the self-righteous hand wringing was an act. Aggressive investors utilizing leverage in herd-like fashion to pursue a risky bet is nothing new. It’s called trading, and that’s what most money mangers do. They don’t invest. There’s a reason why banks and hedge funds have trading desks and people call it the trading day.

  No. The real controversy last week was about who was winning and who was losing. Retail people on apps like Robinhood aren’t supposed to stick it to the big boys. They are supposed to be the so-called dumb money, the schools of tiny fish that exist so whales like Softbank and Citadel have something to feast on. People who go to Davos aren’t supposed to lose money to kids from Denver. But last week, they did. That’s why the financial establishment reacted so strongly.

  Let me pause here to reiterate my belief that I think this kind of trading is extremely risky and not that far removed from betting at the track, regardless of who is doing it. I strongly advise everyone I know to stay way from margin trading, options and short squeezes. That said, I think people should be free to do whatever they want with their money, especially now that their central bank is doing everything it can to destroy its integrity.

  I am outraged by the hypocrisy of the financial services industry. Any doubt that the system is rigged has been eliminated. Why do the rich only ever get richer? Because of what happened last week.

  In all my years of working in this industry, I have never heard of brokers pulling the plug on their clients because they were making too much money.

  If anyone is to be banned from putting on risky trades, it should be the supposedly sophisticated hedge funds who’ve needed to be bailed again and again, not your cousin who recently bought a few shares of GME in her Robinhood app. Your cousin wasn’t the one who fucked up in 1998 or 2008 or 2019 or 2020. She didn’t drive Lehman Brothers into the ground or destroy MF Global.

  But the financial establishment — the same establishment who’s always gone out of its way to celebrate people like John Meriwether, Dick Fuld and John Corzine — decided that your cousin wasn’t allowed to play the same game, and had the audacity to pretend this was for her own protection.

  The fact that she was making money off of hedge funds like D1 (one of Robinhood’s biggest investors) and Citadel (one of Robinhood’s biggest sources of revenues) had nothing to do with it. The fact that Ben Bernanke has been a senior advisor to Citadel and Janet Yellen has collected almost a million dollars in speaking fees from the same firm had nothing to do with it.

  The issue here isn’t how the aggressive buying of stocks like Gamestop ends, because it’ll probably end badly. The issue is that nobody ever tries to stop hedge fund managers from doing the same exact thing. When they gamble with our futures, it’s called capitalism. But when retail people do it, it’s a menace to society that must be stopped.

  Firms like Robinhood are now claiming that they didn’t freeze trading in a handful of stocks because of some nefarious conspiracy. They did it because the back-end clearinghouses like DTCC who process their trades forced them to put up too much capital for those names. Here’s the New York Times:

  A more detailed explanation: Brokerages post money with the D.T.C.C. to cover customers’ transactions while they wait for the trades to settle. With such a big surge in trading, the clearing hub wanted more assurance: “It’s the D.T.C.C. saying ‘This stuff is just too risky,’ ” said the Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Larry Tabb.

  Other online brokerages also cited the D.T.C.C. as a factor in decisions to impose trading restrictions.

  The brilliance of this excuse is that it only proves the skeptics and conspiracy-theory believers right. DTCC is a for-profit monopoly that sits at the heart of America’s financial system. It is controlled by the biggest Wall Street institutions and responsible for all public equity settlement. A subsidiary of it literally owns every single share of publicly traded stock in America. Yes, you read that correctly. You don’t actually own your shares of Apple or Microsoft, they do. You are only allowed to enjoy the financial benefits of being an investor because your corporate overlords let you. Why? Because the government wants it that way (the fact that financial firms like DTCC always donate a lot of money to politicians has nothing to do with it.)

  It’s quite possible that the above justification for the crackdown is technically true: clearinghouses and firms like DTCC suddenly jacked up their collateral requirements because they were afraid the short squeeze would reverse and end badly. On the surface, this is plausible.

  But why have we never heard of the same thing happening to the institutions who also pursue risky trades, use margin, trade options, and often pile into the same crowded trades? Why didn’t this sort of thing happen last year, at the start of the pandemic? Surely an environment where everything is crashing is more dangerous to the back-end plumbing of Wall Street than one where only a few stocks are going up.

  And therein lies the rub. Hedge funds and billionaires didn’t have to be restricted last year because the government intervened and used trillions of dollars of your money to make sure “the system” kept working for them. Just like it had in 2019, 2008 and 1998.

  Ordinary people don’t get that kind of protection, so they aren’t allowed to play. The billionaires who build ridiculous mansions too close to the water get free flood insurance, but you are a mere renter, so you don’t qualify.

  If our financial system was remotely fair, or at least consistent in its response to unusual developments, then the Fed would have been on the phone with DTCC and Robinhood all week, offering liquidity injections and credit lines to keep the system working. The Treasury department would have begun planning an emergency fund to bail out Gamestop and AMC shareholders if the need arose, and Congress would have begun deliberations on the Troubled Retail Investor Relief Program.

  If.

  Years from now, when most of the world has moved on to a different kind of financial system, a fully transparent one built on fundamental properties of equality and censorship resistance, we will look back on the events of this past week as a key turning point.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 19:30

• Make Standard Oil Great Again: Exxon, Chevron Have Discussed A Merger
  Make Standard Oil Great Again: Exxon, Chevron Have Discussed A Merger

  Just this past Friday, we lamented that amid the marketwide meltup, one of the very few companies that actually deserves to be higher with or without the help of WSB, oil giant Exxon, simply refuses to do so, and so we begged Melvin Capital to short it (although it now appears that Gabe Plotkin is busy razing a 1930s house to build a tennis court on his Miami mansion).

  Can Melvin Capital please short XOM

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 29, 2021

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  That was, of course a joke, but what isn’t a joke is that the two largest US oil companies clearly believe they are undervalued because as the WSJ reported on Sunday afternoon, the CEOs of Exxon and Chevron “spoke about combining the oil giants after the pandemic shook the world last year, according to people familiar with the talks, testing the waters for what could be one of the largest corporate mergers ever.”

  The discussions – which took place after the plunge in oil prices last year – between the Exxon CEO Darren Woods and Cheveron CEO Mike Wirth, “were described as preliminary and aren’t ongoing but could come back in the future” according to the WSJ sources.

  And with XOM’s market cap of $190BN and Chevron’s $164BN, a combination would result in a $350BN E&P behemoth, which would be the world’s second largest oil company by market capitalization and production, producing about 7 million barrels of oil and gas a day, based on pre-pandemic levels, second only in both measures to Saudi Aramco.

  Such a deal would significantly surpass in size the mega-oil-mergers of the late 1990s and early 2000s, which included the combination of Exxon and Mobil and Chevron and Texaco Inc.

  It also could be the largest corporate tie-up ever, depending on its structure. That distinction currently belongs to the roughly $181 billion purchase of German conglomerate Mannesmann AG by Vodafone AirTouch PLC in 2000, according to Dealogic.

  If it proceeds, a deal would also reunite the two largest descendants of John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil monopoly, which was broken up by U.S. regulators in 1911, and reshape the oil industry. In other words, if this deal happened, it would go a long way to making Standard Oil Great Again:

  

  Which is also why such a merger would likely encounter regulatory and antitrust challenges under the Biden administration. President Biden has said climate change is one of the biggest crises the country faces. In October, he said he would push the country to “transition away from the oil industry” whatever that means (conventional energy is responsible for about 90% of US energy production); Still, a deal is not impossible: Biden hasn’t been as vocal about antitrust matters, and the administration has yet to nominate the Justice Department’s head of that division.

  As the Journal adds, in an interview discussing Chevron’s earnings Friday, Wirth, who like his Exxon’s Woods also serves as his company’s board chairman, said that consolidation could make the industry more efficient. He was speaking generally and not about a possible Exxon-Chevron merger.

  “As for larger scale things, it’s happened before,” Wirth said, referring to the 1990s and early-2000s megamergers. “Time will tell.”

  It now appears that he was explicitly envisioning a merger with Exxon.

  According to energy analyst Paul Sankey, who first floated the idea of a merger between Chevron and Exxon last October, a combined company would have a market capitalization of about $300 billion and $100 billion in debt. A merger would allow them to cut a combined $15 billion in administrative expenses and $10 billion in annual capital expenditures, he wrote.

  As for the stock price of XOM and CVX, they certainly wouldn’t need a massive short squeeze to soar, which would be welcome news to the activists who have recently circled around Exxon.

  Some investors have grown increasingly concerned about Exxon’s direction under Mr. Woods as the company faces a rapidly changing energy industry and growing global consciousness about climate change. Some are also worried that Exxon may have to cut its hefty dividend, which costs it about $15 billion annually, due to its high debt levels. Many individual investors count on the payments as a source of income.

  The company’s woes have helped draw the attention of activist investors. One of them, Engine No. 1 LLC, has argued that the company should focus more on investments in clean energy while cutting costs elsewhere to preserve its dividend. The firm nominated four directors to Exxon’s board Wednesday and called for it to make strategic changes to its business plan. Last month it also emerged that Exxon had been in talks with activist hedge fund D.E. Shaw and is preparing to announce one or more new board members, additional spending cuts and investments in new technologies to help it reduce its carbon emissions.

  Unlike virtue signaling European peers BP and Shell, both of which would love to be included in some ESG basket, Exxon and Chevron have had the intellectual honesty of staying the course and haven’t invested substantially in renewables, instead choosing to double down on oil and gas. Both companies have argued that the world will need vast amounts of fossil fuels for decades to come, and that they can capitalize on current underinvestment in oil production.

  They are of course right, and after the next crash, when the faddish ESG idiocy is long forgotten, shareholders will reward the two companies handsomely for having been honest in a time when every company lies.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 19:05

• Los Angeles County Bans TVs At Bars Just In Time For The Super Bowl
  Los Angeles County Bans TVs At Bars Just In Time For The Super Bowl

  Authored by Rick Moran via PJMedia.com,

  Los Angeles County has decided that bars and restaurants can reopen for outdoor dining only starting on Friday. But there are new draconian restrictions that will kill even more businesses in the end.

  

  One of the new restrictions involves TVs. There will be no viewing TVs in the outdoor dining areas. With the Super Bowl coming up on February 7, county health officials are worried that having the ability to watch the game at a bar would lead to a “superspreader” event for the coronavirus.

  Super Bowl watch parties are an American tradition and the Super Bowl is one of the biggest days all year for bars and restaurants. Preventing watch parties may be the coup de grace for some small businesses.

  Fox News:

  According to the health order issued by the county, televisions or other screens that broadcast programming must remain off. The rule comes a week ahead of the Super Bowl on Feb. 7.

  L.A. County Health Director Barbara Ferrer said Wednesday she’s worried that the giant sporting event, which usually drives crowds to bars and restaurants for celebrations and watch-parties, will become a “superspreader” event.

  “It will be tragic if the Super Bowl becomes the Super Spreader of coronavirus,” Ferrer said, according to KTLA5. She added that residents should avoid large gatherings and refrain from throwing Super Bowl parties to prevent a situation where the virus can further spread.

  I don’t think there are a lot of football fans working at the county health department.

  Some restrictions are a part of the micromanagement of people’s lives and others make no sense. There is a limit of 50 percent capacity except if the business has a certificate of occupancy with a specific number of patrons allowed. That number will vary depending on the certificate.

  Some of these restrictions make you shake your head in disbelief.

  Eater:

  Another big enforcement issue this time around will be the proper use of all personal protective equipment. As before, servers will need to wear both a face mask (can be cloth) and a face shield, and that mandate has now been extended to anyone who interacts with diners, including runners, bussers, and all front of house personnel. Given the more transmissible new strains of coronavirus going around right now, expect this one to receive particular scrutiny from visiting public health officials in the coming weeks.

  The county has also said no (again) to any live entertainment (including DJs and bands), and that includes televisions — so no Super Bowl parties. Furthermore: “Restaurants may not host receptions, banquets, or other coordinated, organized or invited events or gatherings.” Oh, and no fun tableside preparations or shows like salad spinning or guacamole making, either.

  I guess that means no flaming deserts.

  It’s all for our own good, of course, so if you want to watch the game, you’ll have to do it at home.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 18:40

• De Blasio Warns Of "Dangerous" Snowstorm As Two Feet Expected
  De Blasio Warns Of “Dangerous” Snowstorm As Two Feet Expected

  Update (1830 ET): The National Weather Service reports New York City’s official snowfall forecast could total around two feet. Snow has already begun falling in the metro area, with the heaviest expected on Monday. Meteorologists are predicting the storm could be one of the worst in years. By Tuesday, as much as 21 inches could blanket all five boroughs.

  

  “This is not a storm to underestimate,” NYC Mayor de Blasio said Sunday. “Take it seriously. This is a dangerous storm. Tomorrow is going to be a very tough day. If you do not need to be out and about on Monday, stay home.”

  A live shot of Times Square already shows snow is falling as of 1830 ET.

  

  * * * 

  A powerful snowstorm will impact Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states on Sunday into Tuesday. More than 100 million people are in the path of this “monumental storm,” AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said over the weekend. 

  As we noted last week, the storm already struck parts of California with torrential rain and heavy snow, depending on altitude, due to an atmospheric river emanating from over the Pacific Ocean.  

  Rayno said “from the western shores of Lake Michigan, including Chicago and Milwaukee, across northern parts of Indiana and Ohio” will see 6-12 inches of snow by Monday. 

  By Sunday morning, the snow has already begun to fall in the Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area. 

  The impending Nor’easter could dump “most snowfall to Philly in five years,” said CBS Philly.

  Winter storm warnings from Chicago to Richmond to Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area to New York City have already been declared. 

  

  As we’ve continued to warn about this system and how impactful it could be, more accurate snow total forecast have been posted for the Northeast. 

  

  “Biggest storm in 5 years?! Impending Nor’easter forecast to bring the most snow to Philly since Jan. 23rd, 2016,” tweeted CBS Philly’s Lauren Casey.

  Across the Northeast, precipitation will increase in intensity overnight through Monday. 

  Weather models are pivoting to much colder weather in the week ahead. Meteorologists at BAMWX are forecasting “a legit colder and wintry period is coming.” 

  

  … and what does this mean for natural gas prices? Well, BAMWX models are suggesting “16-30 day outlook from Friday AM might turn out to do pretty well. This is the first time this season I’ve seen the NAEFS go cold like this in the 8-14 day. I think a legit cold & wintry pattern looms for much of February esp. from the Plains to Great Lakes to NE.”

  

  With colder weather on the way, US-Lower 48 heating degree days suggests energy demand to heat commercial and residential structures will increase in the first half of February. 

  

  Commodity traders could certainly view the shift in cold weather as bullish. 

  

  BAMWX also forecasts a “big winter storm to track next weekend too!”

  Goldman Sachs will be happy… 

   

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 18:30

• Ray Dalio: Recent Market "Rebellion" Shows Growing "Anger" And "Intolerance" In U.S.
  Ray Dalio: Recent Market “Rebellion” Shows Growing “Anger” And “Intolerance” In U.S.

  The GameStop controversy has undoubtedly been the “effect” of a much bigger “cause”. 

  And while some of our contributors have offered their take on what, exactly, is behind the revolt, it wouldn’t be commentary about the “economic machine” without Ray Dalio chiming in.

  Dalio weighed in on the recent events involving GameStop and Reddit, which he called a “rebellion”, claiming that last week’s chaos was “another sign of the growing intolerance among those with opposing views”, according to Bloomberg.

  “What concerns me more is the general anger — and almost hate — and the view of bringing people down that now is pervasive in almost all aspects of the country,” Dalio said. “That general desire to hurt one another,” Dalio pointed out.

  

  He said recent events show that the everyday trader is “beginning to understand the mechanics of the markets”. 

  And what would an interview with Ray Dalio be without him eventually turning the conversation back unto himself. “They remind me a lot of me at that age. I started investing at an early age and I was rebellious and wanted to do it my way and bring it down,” he concluded. 

  And while that’s a lovely anecdote, the truth of the matter is that Dalio may not have any idea of what kind of revolt could actually be on its way.

  He is right, of course, that people are angry. But if those people are also part of a group of hundreds of thousands of brokerage clients who all of a sudden find their “winnings” trapped in a bankrupt broker, the current “anger” may wind up looking like a walk in the park. 

  And as we pointed out days ago, Robinhood’s balance sheet looks all but rock solid, given the circumstances.

  $4.9 billion pic.twitter.com/xj6HnFcK86

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 30, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 18:15

• Why Hasn't The House Held Hearings To Establish "Incitement To Insurrection"?
  Why Hasn’t The House Held Hearings To Establish “Incitement To Insurrection”?

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  We recently discussed how the Senate will have to decide whether to call witnesses in the second impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump. The use of a snap impeachment raises a basis for some senators to oppose such witnesses on institutional or prudential grounds. Democrats opposed any witnesses in the Clinton impeachment and there were no witnesses in the first Trump impeachment trial. Not surprisingly, the House is demanding witnesses. The initial vote in the trial shows that it is substantially short of the number of senators needed to convict and Trump could be acquitted on a virtual 50-50 vote. So here is my question: why has the House not used the last few weeks to call these witnesses and build the needed case to show intent to incite an insurrection? Weeks have gone by with key witnesses speaking to the press but not to the House.  Why?

  

  I raised this possibility weeks ago since such House hearings could influence the Senate trial. Even if the transcripts were barred by the Senate, senators would be aware of the evidence and testimony. There has been limited testimony on the response to the riot but most key witnesses have not been called to public hearings on evidence related to Trump’s conduct or intent. Many are clearly willing to testify since they are speaking openly with the media.

  I have no idea if such evidence exists but I, like most Americans, would like to know if it does. I was critical of Trump’s speech while he was giving it. I also opposed the challenge to the electoral votes and criticized the President’s false statements about the authority of Vice President Mike Pence to “send back” these votes. However, I have also said that, without evidence of intent, this case of incitement would fail in the Senate. Indeed, while many legal experts have claimed that this is a strong case for criminal incitement, I believe it would ultimately collapse in the federal courts on free speech grounds.

  The House can show intent directly and circumstantial from evidence of the President’s conduct and statements before and after the speech.  The National Guard deployment is clearly a place to start.  Did Trump delay or obstruct deployment?  We still do not know despite this being one of the easier questions to answer.  Those questions will not be answered by calling the “Shaman” on whether he felt that Trump wanted him to riot or engage in insurrection. Such testimony will show how Trump’s words were received (which is relevant) but not what he intended.

  There is a tendency in Congress to follow the litigation rule not to ask witnesses questions that you do not know the answer to in advance.  However, the absence of hearings on Trump’s role is glaring as the House managers claim that many in the Senate do not want to hear the truth.  There are two houses of Congress and the Democrats are in total control of the House.

  There has clearly been inquiries and limited testimony but very little information has been made publicly, including information that is clearly in the possession or available to the House. Instead reports indicate that the House is building what was described as an “emotionally charged” case before the Senate with cellphone calls and witness testimony rather than evidence focusing on the intent element. I admit that I have the bias of a criminal defense attorney but that is not a case for conviction. It is a case of public appeal.

  This question is even more striking given the public statements of key witnesses like former Acting Secretary of Defense Chris Miller and his two closest aides, Kashyap “Kash” Patel and Ezra Cohen. Miller says that Trump told him the day before the riot that “You’re going to need 10,000 people.” Miller added  “No, I’m not talking bullshit. He said that. And we’re like, ‘Maybe. But you know, someone’s going to have to ask for it.’” He said Trump responded “You do what you need to do. You do what you need to do. You’re going to need 10,000.’”

  That account shows Trump knew that there might be problems with the rally the next day. Many voiced the same concern. However, it also shows Trump warning that troops would be needed.  The question is whether he did anything to prepare for such a deployment or interfere or delay with deployment. Witnesses like Miller would know. Yet, they are giving interviews but not public testimony under oath.

  The House has held hearings on the riot but those hearings seem weirdly tailored to avoid core issues related to the trial. For example, U.S. Capitol Police chief Yogananda D. Pittman testified but did so in a closed session.  She reportedly apologized to Congress “and the American people” for the obvious securing failures on Jan. 6th. She also said that they were aware of the danger of a riot in advance but failed to take adequate steps” “Let me be clear: the Department should have been more prepared for this attack.”

  Maj. Gen. William Walker, the commanding general of the D.C. National Guard, has also given interviews and said that deployment of his troops were delayed by over an hour because he needed approval from the Pentagon. He said that he usually has authority to deploy without approval. If that is true, why was he not called for testimony in the House to explain the timeline and whether the authority was removed specifically for that day?

  There is a great deal of information in the hands of Congress on the requests for deployment and interaction with the Trump Administration. There are records and other non-witness sources of evidence that could also be used to create a record. Yet, the House has been comparatively passive in calling those witnesses that it wants to hear from in the Senate. Again, why?

  This is the same pattern with the first Trump impeachment when the House waited weeks demanding witnesses that it could have called or subpoenaed before the House Judiciary Committee.  It did nothing and then denounced the lack of testimony on key issues. Both trials turned on intent and the House could not expect to prevail without such evidence.

  It was like a case of planned obsolescence in building a case to collapse.

  There are by my count at least ten key witnesses who have already spoken publicly or would be easily attainable including Miller, Walker, Pittman, Patel, Cohen and others.  Yet, there is nothing but crickets from the House.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 17:50

• Goldman Warns If The Short Squeeze Continues, The Entire Market Could Crash
  Goldman Warns If The Short Squeeze Continues, The Entire Market Could Crash

  Last Friday (Jan 22) we advised readers who thought they had missed the move in Gamestop (they hadn’t), to position appropriately in the most shorted Russell 3000 names which included such tickers as FIZZ, DDS, BBBY, AMCX, GOGO and a handful of other names, as it was likely that the short-squeeze was only just starting.

  

  We were right and all of the stocks listed above – and others – exploded higher the coming Monday, and all other days of the week, with results – encapsulated by the WallStreetTips vs Wall Street feud – that have become the only topic of conversation across America (remember the Trump impeachment?), while on WSB the only topic has been the phenomenal gains generated by going long said most shorted stocks. To wit, the basket of top shorts we compiled on Jan 22 has tripled in the past week.

  

  And while some are quick to blame last week’s fireworks on the “dopamine rush” of traders at r/wallstreetbets who seek an outlet to being “copped up with little else to do during the pandemic” (as Bloomberg has done, while also blaming widespread lockdowns and forgetting that it has been Bloomberg that was among the most vocal defenders of the very lockdowns that have given us the short squeeze of the century), the reality is that at the end of the day the strategy unleashed by the subreddit is merely an extension of the bubble dynamics that were made possible by the Federal Reserve (of which Bloomberg is also a very staunch fan) pumping trillions and trillions of shotgunned liquidity into a financial system where there are now bubble visible anywhere one looks. In short, main street finally learned that it too can profit from the lunacy of the money printers at the Marriner Eccles building, and some are very unhappy about that (yes, it will end in tears, but – newsflash – $300 trillion in debt and $120BN in liquidity injections monthly will also end in tears).

  That aside, one week later, Goldman has finally caught up with what Zero Hedge readers knew one week ago, and all the way down to a chart showing a basket of the most-shorted Russell 3000 stocks…

  

  … Goldman’s David Kostin has published a post-mortem of what happened last week, writing that “the most heavily-shorted stocks have risen by 98% in the past three months, outstripping major short squeezes in 2000 and 2009.”

  He then points out something we discussed in “Hedge Funds Are Puking Longs To Cover Short-Squeeze Losses“, noting that while aggregate short interest levels are remarkably low (imagine what would have happened has shorting been far more aggressive marketwide)…

  

  … “the -4% weekly return of our Hedge Fund VIP list of the most popular hedge fund long positions (GSTHHVIP) showed how excess in one small part of the market can create contagion.”

  As an aside, and as we showed previously, as the most shorted stocks soared…

  

  … hedge funds were forced to cover (as well as paying for margin calls), and as part of the broader degrossing they also had to sell some of the favorite hedge fund names across the industry, in this case represented by the Goldman Hedge Fund VIP basket.

  

  Yet what may come as a surprise to some, even as hedge funds deleveraged aggressively and actively cut risk this week, gross and net exposures “remain close to the highest levels on record” (something which may come as a huge surprise to Marko Kolanovic who has been erroneously claiming the opposite), suggesting that if the squeeze continues, hedge funds are set for much more pain.

  

  According to Goldman Sachs Prime Services, this week “represented the largest active hedge fund de-grossing since February 2009. Funds in their coverage sold long positions and covered shorts in every sector” and yet “despite this active deleveraging, hedge fund net and gross exposures on a mark-to-market basis both remain close to the highest levels on record, indicating ongoing risk of positioning-driven sell-offs.”

  With that in mind, here are Kostin’s big picture thoughts:

  It was a placid week in the US stock market – provided one was a long-only mutual fund manager. US equity mutual funds and ETFs had $2 billion of net inflows last week (+$10 billion YTD). Although the typical large-cap core mutual fund fell by 2% this week, it has generated a return of +1.3% YTD vs. S&P 500 down -1.1%. However, life was very different last week if one managed a hedge fund. The typical US equity long/short fund returned -7% this week and has returned -6% YTD.

  With the average WSB portfolio up double digits this past week, one can see why hedge funds are upset. Anyway, moving on:

  The past 25 years have witnessed a number of sharp short squeezes in the US equity market, but none as extreme as has occurred recently.In the last three months, a basket containing the 50 Russell 3000 stocks with market caps above $1 billion and the largest short interest as a share of float (GSCBMSAL) has rallied by 98%.  This exceeded the 77% return of highly-shorted stocks during 2Q 2020, a 56% rally in mid-2009, and two distinct 72% rallies during the Tech Bubble in 1999 and 2000. This week the basket’s trailing 5-, 10-, and 21-day returns registered as the largest on record.

  Thanks Goldman, and yes, your “brisk assessment” would have been more useful to your clients if it had come before the event (like, for example, this) instead of after.

  Kostin then goes on to point out that the “mooning” in the most shorted stocks took place even though aggregate short interest was near record low (imagine what would have happened had short interest been higher), which is odd because historically, “major short squeezes have typically taken place as aggregate short interest declined from elevated levels. In contrast, the recent short squeeze has been driven by concentrated short positions in smaller companies, many of which had lagged dramatically and were perceived by most investors to be in secular decline” to wit:

  Unusually, the rally of the most heavily-shorted stocks has taken place against a backdrop of very low levels of aggregate short interest. At the start of this year, the median S&P 500 stock had short interest equating to just 1.5% of market cap, matching mid-2000 as the lowest share in at least the last 25 years. In the past, major short squeezes have typically taken place as aggregate short interest declined from elevated levels. In contrast, the recent short squeeze has been driven by concentrated short positions in smaller companies, many of which had lagged dramatically and were perceived by most investors to be in secular decline.

  Of course, there is nothing “historical” about what happened last week, because – as we all know – the biggest difference between the typical short squeeze of the past and the recent rally in heavily-shorted stocks “was the degree of involvement of retail traders, who also appear to have catalyzed sharp moves in other parts of the market.” Why thank you WSB, but that’s ok – you will be handsomely rewarded.

  Last week we discussed the surging trading activity and share prices of penny stocks, firms with negative earnings, and extremely high-growth, high-multiple stocks. These trends have all accompanied a large increase in online broker trading activity. A basket of retail favorites (ticker: GSXURFAV) has returned +17% YTD and +179% since the March 2020 low, outperforming both the S&P 500 (+72%) and our Hedge Fund VIP list of the most popular hedge fund long positions (GSTHHVIP, +106%).

  

  So why does this matter? One simple reason: contrary to the bizarrely nonchalant optimism spouted earlier this week by JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic who said “any market pullback, such as one driven by repositioning by a segment of the long-short community (and related to stocks of insignificant size), is a buying opportunity, in our view,” Goldman has a far more dismal take on recent events, and writes that “this week demonstrated that unsustainable excess in one small part of the market has the potential to tip a row of dominoes and create broader turmoil.”

  He then picks up on what he said last weekend when responding to Goldman client concerns about a stock bubble, which we summarized in “Goldman’s Clients Are Freaking Out About A Stock Bubble: Here Is The Bank’s Response“, and which turned out to be 100% warranted, and writes that “most of the bubble-like dynamics we highlighted last week have taken place in stocks constituting very small portions of total US equity market cap. Indeed, many of the shorts dominating headlines this week were (prior to this week) small-cap stocks. But large short squeezes led investors short these stocks to cover their positions and also reduce long positions, leading other holders of common positions to cut exposures in turn.”

  As a result, Goldman’s Hedge Fund VIP list declined by 4%. Which is a problem because as Kostin concludes, “in recent years elevated crowding, low turnover, and high concentration have been consistent patterns, boosting the risk that one fund’s unwind could snowball through the market.“

  Translation: if WSB continues to push the most shorted stocks higher, the entire market could crash.

  And since Kostin admits that “the retail trading boom can continue” as “an abundance of US household cash should continue to fuel the trading boom” with more than 50% of the $5 trillion in money market mutual funds owned by households and is $1 trillion greater than before the pandemic, what happens in the coming week – i.e., if the short squeeze persists – could have profound implications for the future of capital markets.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 01/31/2021 – 17:45

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• Only You Can Beat Big Tech Censorship
  Only You Can Beat Big Tech Censorship

  Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

  When Facebook censors Ron Paul, or Twitter bans President Trump, is that censorship?

  Or because these are private companies, does that automatically make it NOT censorship?

  Amazon banned Parler, but is it their right as a private company to choose their customers?

  That’s the crux of the issue I need to address with you in today’s post-Trump world of social media.

  

  Because make no mistake “Big Tech” repression is a foundational problem facing any society that considers itself even somewhat free. In the wake of the allowed ‘assault on the Capitol’ and the confirmation of Joe Biden as the 46th president of the U.S., the big tech firms which control access to speech went ballistic.

  Conservatives along with President Trump himself were wiped from the public square. Any mention of the election being stolen or open support on Twitter of Trump himself was flushed down the memory hole.

  This is censorship of the highest order by these firms to put parameters around political speech in the U.S. where such a right is enshrined in the Constitution. None of it is constitutional.

  But the problem is far deeper than that. The deplatforming of Parler, one alternative social media platform to Twitter, via corporate collusion by Apple, Google and Amazon was something far more sinister than Twitter silencing the sitting president of the U.S.

  This was a blatant hit job by companies stifling competition in the public square for hosting material which is constitutionally protected as ‘free speech.’

  But these firms, especially Amazon, who terminated Parler’s server hosting agreement with 24 hours’ notice, lazily applied their vague and ever-changing ‘Terms of Service” to single out Parler and hide behind their status as a private company.

  The worst part about this is that libertarians see this as a rational and defensible free market action. And for years adolescent libertarian arguments about corporations being private actors preferable to governments have now been turned around by authoritarians who hang us with our own words.

  And we wonder why conservatives look at us like we have four-heads when we make such arguments?

  When this attack on free speech began, during the 2016 presidential campaign with the first deplatforming of alt-right provocateurs like Richard Spencer and Andrew Anglin of the Daily Stormer website, it was obvious then that these were dry runs for the mass action we’re seeing today, in the name of creating an information-free literal one-party police state.

  It was this that prompted former Silicon Valley programmer Andrew Torba to start Gab. Crazed liberals then said, “If you don’t like Twitter, leave and build your own.”

  So, he did. And after the attack on the Pittsburgh Synagogue in 2018, Gab was given the even worse treatment than Parler got last week.

  They survived that.

  All the while myself and people like Torba were screaming about the duopoly controlling the on-ramp to the mobile web, and no one cared. But we could see this day coming.

  And now it’s here.

  But this is most certainly not a private property issue as much as it is a contract law issue allowed to fester because of government interference into the marketplace for communications.

  Government interference altered the landscape these companies operate in. The grew to the size they are now because of government largesse and federal and state tax revenue into the networks and systems they depend on.

  It doesn’t matter that the duopoly is Google and Apple. It could have been Palm and Microsoft. Or Blackberry and IBM. What matters is that the environment wasn’t a level playing field between the companies and the people using the services.

  They were paying not only for access but at the same time subsidizing the revenue streams by accepting costs these companies outsourced to government.

  It is a cozy arrangement.

  The companies outsource their fixed costs and the government outsources their censorship desires that pesky First Amendment forbids them from doing directly.

  No wonder the response to the allowed assault on the Capitol was so swift and coordinated.

  Think it through folks.

  Amazon’s AWS doesn’t become a dominant player without those vaunted contracts with the CIA. Parler, at a minimum should have an expectation of service per any legal contractual arrangement, and as such is due damages from Amazon for unilaterally breaching that basic trust.

  Facebook doesn’t grow to become the monster it is without strategic investments by quasi-governmental companies like Goldman-Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

  Google doesn’t become the ad revenue generating machine if it had had to properly pay its bandwidth costs for the content they forced on us.

  Trump nixing ‘Net Neutrality’ put some of that onus back on them, giving ISP’s some latitude to price usage according to their needs rather than Google’s.

  All of the above companies, including Microsoft, have been chosen by our government to succeed in this tilted marketplace.

  Apple doesn’t dominate the mobile internet in the U.S. without all those user fees and taxes tacked onto the cost of your monthly cellphone bill.

  If these companies were operating on their own private satellite and wire networks then they would absolutely be in the right, via the application of private property rights, to set whatever terms of service they wanted.

  I, as a libertarian, fully support that.

  And also, as a libertarian, understand that public property always creates a tragedy of the commons scenario.

  But when you operate in the public sphere, when you move your goods and services on the digital equivalent of the public road system (not a digression I want to get into today) and your corporate charter exists within the framework of U.S. and state contract law it is clear that these companies are neither wholly private entities with respect to their customers nor neutral actors trying to enforce public decency standards.

  They are acting in their best interest to stifle competition – Gab, Parler, Minds, etc. – while setting precedents to allow for even further restrictions of speech through lawfare thanks to a complicit and fully cowed legal system.

  And herein lies the smart path to reining them in, if it is at all possible at this point, since it’s clear the Biden Administration is ready to reframe all speech critical of the U.S. government as ‘domestic terrorism’ giving all of these companies the legal justification into the future to unperson all dissent.

  Removing their Section 230 immunity under the Communications Decency Act is paramount. It will not happen now. The government is in on the grift, folks, so looking ahead to the 2022 election cycle isn’t an option.

  They just proved to you your vote doesn’t count, so it means hitting them in the only place they truly care about, their bottom lines.

  So, the first thing to do is sue them into the ground. It will be up to the people themselves to hound these companies through both contract law violations and shareholder revolts because they have done irreparable damage to their brands and their future revenue streams.

  That is what has to happen right now. Parler’s suit against Amazon is a good start. A class-action lawsuit by every small business in America now wondering about Amazon’s policies should end this nonsense quickly.

  A good judge in a sympathetic jurisdiction should side with anyone making a strong case that modern tech company Terms of Service are ‘contracts of adhesion,’ defined as contracts entered into where one party is so much stronger than the other the weaker party is, in effect, coerced into signing it.

  The second thing to do is to simply jack-out. Put the screen down. Stop using it as a substitution for real communications and pull back from the brink.

  De-google your life, as I have. Close your Facebook account permanently. You will feel better immediately, trust me. I did this two years ago, to the detriment of the marketing efforts of my business, and I have never looked back.

  If you need a social network, use Twitter for keeping tabs on things but save your thoughts and your content for Gab or some other, smaller private community you are a part of.

  Being a global citizen is a canard they sold us as some true net positive. But it was something designed wholly to drive us mad and deracinate us to the point of having no home, no culture and no real friends.

  It’s no wonder they are trying so hard to shut off the escape routes and only allow certain platforms to exist forcing us to interact with people we don’t like while locked in our homes over a wholly contrived public health emergency.

  It was always part of the globalist plan.

  Ending this starts with the very libertarian idea of simply opting-out. We don’t need to be plugged into their reality-generating nightmares every moment of every day.

  But the thing about the web is that it is built on protocols which are themselves censorship resistant. So, the tyrants of today will be the footnotes of tomorrow. We’ve seen early attempts at censorship-proof blockchain platforms like Steemit. It’s still running even though its growing pains nearly killed it.

  The next great service is just around the corner because necessity is the mother of innovation. But the first step is accepting the fact that they’ve won this round and it is now time to change the rules of the game.

  P.S.: If you want to see what this looks like, just look at what the guys at Wall Street Bets are doing to the capital markets today. Brokerage outages, trading suspended, newly-minted millionaires.

  All because a bunch of hedgies got over-confident of their one-way skimming and thinking no one would press their luck to the breaking point.

  They have and it is glorious.

  You beat them by turning their supposed advantages and bought-and-paid-for rules of the game back on them.

  *  *  *

  Join My Patreon if you like watching the bad guys take it on the chin

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  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 23:00

• WHO Team 'Tightly Controlled' By CCP During COVID-19 Origins Investigation
  WHO Team ‘Tightly Controlled’ By CCP During COVID-19 Origins Investigation

  The World Health Organization (WHO)’s probe into the origins of SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, appears to be nothing more than the media blitz that most skeptics predicted.

  

  According to Reuters, the team’s visit is being “tightly controlled by its Chinese hosts” as they visited a hospital on Saturday in Wuhan which treated early COVID-19 patients.

  On its second day after two weeks in quarantine, the team went to Jinyintan Hospital, where doctors had collected samples from patients suffering from an unidentified pneumonia in late 2019.

  “Important opportunity to talk directly w/ medics who were on the ground at that critical time fighting COVID!”, team member Peter Daszak said on Twitter.

  Team members leaving the hospital did not speak to journalists, who have been kept at a distance since the group left its quarantine hotel on Thursday.

  And of course, the team will visit the Wuhan ‘wet’ market tied to the first cluster of cases – except the CCP razed and sanitized the site months ago. Maybe the WHO team can take some memorable photos?

  #Wuhan Huanan Seafood Market was claimed to be the origin of #COVID2019 #Coronavirus #CoronavirusOutbreak, although we may never be able to find out, as the market was closed and everything cleaned up on Jan 1. It was said that this market is now going to be demolished. pic.twitter.com/qRDyU0Dweg

  — Jennifer Zeng 曾錚 (@jenniferatntd) March 3, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The WHO origins probe prominently includes Peter Daszak – president of EcoHealth Alliance, a non-profit group that has received millions of dollars of U.S. taxpayer funding to genetically manipulate coronaviruses with scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Of note, Daszak drafted a February, 2020 statement in The Lancet on behalf of 27 prominent public health scientists which condemned “conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin.”

  

  Via USRTK.org:

  [E]mails obtained via public records requests show that EcoHealth Alliance President Peter Daszak drafted the Lancet statement, and that he intended it to “not be identifiable as coming from any one organization or person” but rather to be seen as “simply a letter from leading scientists”.

  Daszak wrote that he wanted “to avoid the appearance of a political statement”.

  …

  The 27 authors “strongly condemn[ed] conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin,” and reported that scientists from multiple countries “overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife.” The letter included no scientific references to refute a lab-origin theory of the virus.

  The emails show how members of EcoHealth Alliance played an early role in framing questions about possible lab origin of SARS-CoV-2 as “crackpot theories that need to be addressed,” as Daszak told The Guardian.

  In short, the guy leading the WHO’s faux-investigation was working directly with the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s bat research team, and who insists COVID-19 has a natural origin (and couldn’t possibly have escaped the WIV), has a massive conflict of interest.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 22:30

• 'Black Lives Matter' Nominated For The Nobel Peace Prize
  ‘Black Lives Matter’ Nominated For The Nobel Peace Prize

  Authored by Monica Showalter via AmericanThinker.com,

  If the Nobel committee’s handing over of the Nobel peace prize to newly elected President Obama seemed like the nadir of the prize’s prestige, there’s now another thing coming.

  

  According to The Guardian:

  The Black Lives Matter movement has been nominated for the 2021 Nobel peace prize for the way its call for systemic change has spread around the world.

  In his nomination papers, the Norwegian MP Petter Eide said the movement had forced countries outside the US to grapple with racism within their own societies.

  “I find that one of the key challenges we have seen in America, but also in Europe and Asia, is the kind of increasing conflict based on inequality,” Eide said.

  “Black Lives Matter has become a very important worldwide movement to fight racial injustice.

  “They have had a tremendous achievement in raising global awareness and consciousness about racial injustice.”

  That’s right, a group led by self-described “trained Marxists” who literally spent time with Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and then triggered night after night of violent looting riots at a cost of at least 25 lives and a record $2 billion in insured property claims, (probably much more in uninsured property), and grotesque Red Guard-style repudiation scenes such as forcing restaurant diners to wave their fists in solidarity or face overturned tables and assault, is somehow … is worthy of the world’s top award for peace.

  Back in 1964, when Martin Luther King, Jr. was awarded the same prize for calls to judge people on the content of their character over color, along with non-violent resistence, there was a recognizable standard for peace. Now, such approaches don’t cut it anymore for this Norwegian bunch. And to place BLM in the same league as MLK, Jr., is kind of obscene.

  The Norwegian pol who put the nomination out cited BLM’s capacity to mobilize as his criteria. But that seems to be pretty shaky grounds, given that so many leftists out there really just wanted to Get Trump. BLM has since morphed into what appears to be a corporate shakedown racket and managed to get its Marxist identity politics party line into every corporate boardroom in America. But the capacity to use muscling community organizer tactics is no evidence of morality, or more pointedly, peace. BLM is never going to be satisfied no matter how much kowtowing is done, each victory it wins brings a bigger demand to its marks, without ceasing, until its will to absolute power is achieved. Sound like peace? Only of the grave.

  What it highlights is how low the Nobel peace prize has fallen. Sure, this Norwegian socialist clown doing the nominating likely has no idea what’s going on in the states, given that he lives in isolated Norway, takes in meetings with activists, and only reads the leftist press. The idiocy of his proposal tops that of the Norwegians handing out a Nobel prize to Barack Obama just for getting elected president for being black without doing anything else.  

  In both instances, the Nobel committee nominators seem to relish anyone with the ability to exert leftist power, equating that kind of power-mongering with ‘peace.’ It’s a sorry act they’ve come to, to worship power over any semblance of authentic peace. If this is peace, what a sorry state of affairs we have, mau-mauing’s triumph over actual creating of peace. Will all Nobel peace prize recipients have to show proof of starting riots to qualify now? How, exactly, is riot-making ‘peace’? One likes to suppose that this nomination will go nowhere, but with the current nonsense going on, don’t bet on it. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 22:00

• Caveat Emptor – Are You A WSB 'Useful Idiot'?
  Caveat Emptor – Are You A WSB ‘Useful Idiot’?

  While high-fives and smily-faces abound on the interwebs over the destruction wrought on numerous hedge funds amid the short- and gamma-squeezes in GME and the rest of the heavily-shorted names, some are at least taking a moment to pause and reflect on other possibilities about how this all ends…

  

  Via ‘The_Law_of_Pizza’:

  I don’t work on the trading Floor, but I’m an attorney who services a variety of financial institutions, including broker/dealers.

  This isn’t the exciting, hilarious answer you want, but a lot of people had no idea it was even happening until the past 48 hours, and even now, it’s mostly just a funny news article about some internet trolls making a bubble.

  This is a big deal to the shorting community, but to the other 99% of the financial world, nobody gives a shit.

  As much as young people on the internet like to imagine this as an epic, David vs Goliath, Wall Street vs Main Street showdown for the history books; from a bird’s eye view its actually just a brief dumpster fire where a couple hedge funds lost their shirts betting on one little small cap stock. It has happened before, and it will happen again.

  In 6 months, nobody will remember or care, except that (maybe) it will become more difficult for retail investors to trade options.

  And not because the greedy hedge fund oligarchs forced the SEC to crack down on retail investors.

  But rather because, when this is all said and done, there is going to be a black hole where most of these retail investors’ brokerage accounts used to be, and the SEC and brokerage community will be lambasted for failing to protect unsophisticated investors from a bubble.

  I have been monitoring the WSB threads, and while the WSB veterans know that they’re making a suicide charge for the memes, they have brought thousands of naive, new investors with them – who predominantly think that they’re going to somehow come out on top, not realizing that they’re cannon fodder for the more savvy WSB users to exit with gains.

  Redditors never seem to stop and think about why the WSB guys know so much about derivatives trading.

  Or how they seem to know how to access and read from a Bloomberg Terminal.

  Or why there are so many users there that can seemingly drop tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars on complicated meme plays.

  How do you think that WSB knew that GME was open to a short squeeze and a gamma squeeze play?

  WSB’s power users are younger finance bros. It’s 30-something investment bankers and portfolio managers memeing with each other a. cosplaying as “autists.”

  If you didn’t know what a gamma squeeze was 48 hours ago, you are their exit strategy and the down payment on their next Porsche.

  Caveat Emptor indeed.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 21:30

• Virginia Task Force Drops Gang Database After Complaints It Has Too Many Minorities In It
  Virginia Task Force Drops Gang Database After Complaints It Has Too Many Minorities In It

  Via Southfront.org,

  A tolerant country needs tolerant databases…

  

  The Northern Virginia Regional Gang Task Force would stop using the GangNet database that catalogs thousands of gang members and gang-affiliated persons in the DC Metropolitan area over complaints that the database includes a ‘disproportionate number of minorities’.

  According to the Washington Post, it will be the first law enforcement entity in the area that would stop using GangNet.

  The database is widely used by more than 120 law enforcement agencies in the greater Washington, DC area that includes densely populated counties in both Maryland and Virginia. GangNet had been in use for about 10 years and has about 7,800 gang members in its database.

  The database is used for intelligence purposes and can’t be used for the basis of probable cause to arrest someone.

  Nonetheless, collecting the data about any crimes that may involve the ‘disproportional number of minorities’ appeared to be too much for the new neo-liberal era in the US.

  It may soon appear that the entire concept of the ‘ethnic crime’ can appear to be banned in the US because it is not enough tolerant.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 21:00

• Jessica Alba's "Honest Company" Files Confidentially For IPO
  Jessica Alba’s “Honest Company” Files Confidentially For IPO

  At times of peak ESG mania, what’s one more dubious company to add to the IPO mix? Will anybody notice? Will anybody care?

  Perhaps Jessica Alba is hoping that people won’t. Because Alba’s Honest Company – the same one that was exposed years ago for having harmful chemicals it railed against in its detergent – is apparently lining up for an IPO. The company’s schtick is claiming to offer products without the harmful chemicals of normal consumer products – a perfect nonsense story for the snowflakes setting the tone of today’s ESG fueled market.

  “The Los Angeles-based company backed by L Catterton is preparing to file confidentially for an initial public offering with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as soon as Friday, said the people, who asked to not be identified because the matter isn’t public,” Bloomberg BNN reported on Friday. 

  The company is reportedly seeking a $2 billion valuation at IPO. The company was previously looking to sell itself for a valuation of about $1 billion, the report notes. Recall, back in September of 2016, Alba was reportedly laughing off $1 billion offers for her company. It seems that, since then, its valuation hasn’t expanded much, if at all. 

  

  About six or seven years ago, we wrote about how Alba’s “Honest” company may not have been so honest after all. We noted a 2014 Wall Street Journal article that alleged that the company hadn’t really been honest in disclosing which chemicals were used to make their “non-toxic” diapers and detergents.

   

  We noted: “One of the primary ingredients Honest tells consumers to avoid is a cleaning agent called sodium lauryl sulfate, or SLS, which can be found in everyday household items from Colgate toothpaste to Tide detergent and Honest says can irritate skin. The company lists SLS first in the ‘Honestly free of’ label of verboten ingredients it puts on bottles of its laundry detergent, one of Honest’s first and most popular products.”

  And then, of course, two independent lab tests determined that Honest’s liquid laundry detergent did in fact contain SLS:

  “Our findings support that there is a significant amount of sodium lauryl sulfate” in Honest’s detergent, said Barbara Pavan, a chemist at one of the labs, Impact Analytical. Another lab, Chemir, a division of EAG Inc., said its test for SLS found about the same concentration as Tide, which is made by P&G. “It was not a trace amount,” said Matthew Hynes, a chemist at Chemir who conducted the test.

  In Alba’s 2013 book, “The Honest Life” she lists SLS as a “toxin” that consumers should avoid. She started Santa Monica, Calif.-based Honest in 2011 after she said she had an allergic reaction to a popular brand of laundry detergent.

  The unfortunate truth is that this is the exact type of “honesty” that Wall Street loves, and the IPO will probably become a resounding success despite Alba’s checkered track record. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 20:30

• Taibbi: Suck It, Wall Street!
  Taibbi: Suck It, Wall Street!

  Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News,

  In a blowout comedy for the ages, finance pirates take it up the clacker

  

  In the fall of 2008, America’s wealthiest companies were in a pickle. Short-selling hedge funds, smelling blood as the global economy cratered, loaded up with bets against finance stocks, pouring downward pressure on teetering, hyper-leveraged firms like Morgan Stanley and Citigroup. The free-market purists at the banks begged the government to stop the music, and when the S.E.C. complied with a ban on financial short sales, conventional wisdom let out a cheer.

  “This will absolutely make a difference,” economist Peter Cardillo told CNN. “Now, if there is any good news, shorts will have to cover.”

  At the time, poor beleaguered banks were victims, while hedge funds betting them down as the economy circled the drain were seen as antisocial monsters. “They are like looters after a hurricane,” seethed Andrew Cuomo, then-Attorney General of New York State, who “promised to intensify investigations into short selling abuses.” Senator John McCain, in the home stretch of his eventual landslide loss to Barack Obama, added that S.E.C. chairman Christopher Cox had “betrayed the public’s trust” by allowing “speculators and hedge funds” to “turn our markets into a casino.”

  Fast forward thirteen years. The day-trading followers of a two-million-subscriber Reddit forum called “wallstreetbets” somewhat randomly decide to keep short-sellers from laying waste to a brick-and-mortar retail video game company called GameStop, betting it up in defiance of the Street. Worth just $6 four months ago, the stock went from $18.36 on the afternoon of the Capitol riot, to $43.03 on the 21st two weeks later, to $147.98 this past Tuesday the 26th, to an incredible $347.51 at the close of the next day, January 27th.

  The rally sent crushing losses at short-selling hedge funds like Melvin Capital, which was forced to close out its position at a cost of nearly $3 billion. Just like 2008, down-bettors got smashed, only this time, there were no quotes from economists celebrating the “good news” that shorts had to cover. Instead, polite society was united in its horror at the spectacle of amateur gamblers doing to hotshot finance professionals what those market pros routinely do to everyone else. If you’ve ever seen Animal House, you understand the sentiment:

  The press conveyed panic and moral disgust. “I didn’t realize it was this cultlike,” said short-seller Andrew Left of Citron Research, without irony denouncing the campaign against firms like his as “just a get rich quick scheme.” Massachusetts Secretary of State Bill Galvin said the Redditor campaign had “no basis in reality,” while Dr. Michael Burry, the hedge funder whose bets against subprime mortgages were lionized in “The Big Short,” called the amateur squeeze “unnatural, insane, and dangerous.”

  The episode prompted calls to regulate Reddit and, finally, halt action on the disputed stocks. As I write this, word has come out that platforms like Robinhood and TD Ameritrade are curbing trading in GameStop and several other companies, including Nokia and AMC Entertainment holdings.

  Meaning: just like 2008, trading was shut down to save the hides of erstwhile high priests of “creative destruction.” Also just like 2008, there are calls for the government to investigate the people deemed responsible for unapproved market losses.

  The acting head of the SEC said the agency was “monitoring” the situation, while the former head of its office of Internet enforcement, John Stark, said, “I can’t imagine there isn’t an open investigation and probably a formal order to find out who’s on these message boards.” Georgetown finance professor James Angel lamented, “it’s going to be hard for the SEC to find blatant manipulation,” but they “owe it to look.” The Washington Post elaborated:

  To establish manipulation that runs afoul of securities laws, Angel said regulators would need to prove traders engaged in “an intentional act to push a price away from its fundamental value to seek a profit.” In market parlance, this is typically known as a pump-and-dump scheme…

  Even Nancy Pelosi, when asked about “manipulation” and “what’s going on on Wall Street right now,” said “we’ll all be reviewing it,” as if it were the business of congress to worry about a bunch of day traders cashing in for once.

  The only thing “dangerous” about a gang of Reddit investors blowing up hedge funds is that some of us reading about it might die of laughter. That bit about investigating this as a “pump and dump scheme” to push prices away from their “fundamental value” is particularly hilarious. What does the Washington Post think the entire stock market is, in the bailout age?

  America’s banks just had maybe their best year ever, raking in $125 billion in underwriting fees at a time when the rest of the country is dealing with record unemployment, thanks entirely to massive Federal Reserve intervention that turned a crash into a boom. Who thinks the “fundamental value” of most stocks would be this high, absent the Fed’s Atlas-like support in the last year?

  For context, Goldman, Sachs posted revenues of $44.56 billion in 2020, its best year since 2009, a.k.a. the last year Wall Street cashed in on a bailout. Back then, the shortcut back to giganto-bonuses was underwriting fees for financial companies raising money to purge themselves of TARP debt. This time it’s underwriting fees for bond issues and IPOs. The subtext of both bailouts was that anyone who owned or underwrote financial assets got richer, while everyone else got the proverbial high hat. It’s no accident that income inequality dramatically accelerated after the last bailouts, and that the only people to see net gains in wealth since 2008 have been the richest 20% of Americans, a pattern almost certain to continue.

  The constant in the bailout years has been a battery of artificial stimulants sent through the financial sector, from the TARP to years of zero-interest-rate policies (ZIRP) to outright interventions like the multiple trillion-dollar rounds of Quantitative Easing. All that froth allowed finance companies to suck out hundreds of billions in fees, encouraged lunatic risk-taking in every direction and rampages of private equity takeovers, and kept a vast stable of functionally dead companies alive on cheap credit.

  Those so-called “zombie companies” make up roughly 30% of all corporations in America now, and they racked up over a trillion dollars in new debt since the pandemic alone. While policymakers may have stabilized the economy with the bailouts, they may also “inadvertently be directing the flow of capital to unproductive firms,” as Bloomberg euphemistically put it back in November.

  In other words, it was all well and good for investment banks and executives of phoney-baloney companies to gorge themselves on funhouse profits on a funhouse economy, but when amateurs decided to funnel just a bit of this clown show into their own pockets, finance pros wailed like the grave of Adam Smith had been danced upon. The worst was Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman, who issued a somber warning that those behind the recent market frenzy are “in for a very rude awakening,” adding, “I don’t know if it is going to happen tomorrow, next week or in a month, but it will happen.”

  This is the same James Gorman whose company just saw its 2020 fourth-quarter profits go up 51% versus the year before, with total revenues up 16% to $48.2 billion, matching almost exactly the 16% rise in the stock market last year. If you’re going to rake in $33 million as Gorman did last year captaining a firm that just siphoned off billions in essentially risk-free profits underwriting a never-ending bailout, should you really be worrying about someone else getting a “rude awakening”? There are 19 million people collecting unemployment who might be reading those profit numbers. Does this man know how to spell “pitchfork”?

  GameStop has prompted more pearl-clutching than any news story in recent memory. Expert after grave-faced expert has marched on TV to tell Reddit traders that markets are complicated, this isn’t a game, and they wouldn’t be doing this, if they really understood how things work.

  “I’m not sure everybody fully understands what’s happening here,” was the melancholy comment on CNBC of Wall Street’s famed fluffer-in-chief, Andrew Ross Sorkin. The author of Too Big to Fail added in pedagogic tones that while this “stick it to the man moment” might feel good, betting up the value of GameStop above Delta Airlines just isn’t right, because “there are no fundamentals here”:

  Fundamentals? How much does Sorkin think his exalted Delta Airlines would be worth now, if the Fed hadn’t stopped its death plunge last March? How much would any of the airlines be worth in the Covid age, with their fleets of mothballed jets? What a joke!

  Furthermore, everybody “understands” what happened with GameStop. Unlike some other Wall Street stories, this one isn’t complicated. The entire tale, in a nutshell, goes like this. One group of gamblers announced, “Fuck you!” Another group announced back: “No, fuck YOU!”

  That’s it. Or, as one market analyst put it to me this morning, “A bunch of guys made a bet, got killed, then doubled and tripled down and got killed even more.”

  Regarding improprieties, leaving aside that the Redditors were doing exactly what billion-dollar hedge funds do every day — colluding to move a stock for fun and profit — the notion that this should be the subject of a federal investigation is preposterous.

  Is it completely outside the realm of possibility that the GME fiasco isn’t just day traders giving the finger to Wall Street, that “major players” are behind the stock’s movement, in an illegal manipulation scheme? No. Probably it’s not that, but it could be, just as some of the usual suspects may have piled on the long side once the frenzy started. But if there’s anything to investigate here, the obvious place to start is with the hedge funds and their brokers.

  While it isn’t a complicated story, some of the awesome humor of GameStop is in the mechanics.

  Unlike betting on a stock to go up (i.e. betting “long”), where you can only lose as much as you invest, the losses in shorting can be infinite. This adds a potential extra layer of Schadenfreude to the plight of the happy hedge fund pirate who might have borrowed gazillions of GameStop shares at five or ten hoping to tank the firm, only to go in pucker mode as Internet hordes drive the cost of the trade to ten, twenty, fifty times their original investment.

  Short-sellers bet by borrowing shares from so-called prime brokers (Goldman, Sachs and JP Morgan Chase are among the biggest), selling them, and waiting for the price to drop, at which point they buy them back on the open market at the lower price and return them. The commonly understood rub is that prime brokers don’t always really procure those original borrowed shares, and often give out more “locates” than they should, putting more shares in circulation than actually exist (as in this case). GameStop is exposing this systematic plundering of firms using phantom shares and locates, by groups of actors who now have the gall to complain that they’re the victims of a “get rich quick” scheme.

  Short-sellers are not inherently antisocial. They can be beneficial to society, instrumental in rooting out corruption and waste in whole sectors like the subprime industry, or in single companies like Enron. Moreover, the wiping out of such funds isn’t necessarily to be cheered. Sorkin correctly notes that many hedge funds invest on behalf of entities like pension funds, though maybe they shouldn’t, given their high cost and relatively mediocre performance, as I’ve noted before.

  However, that’s the point. The degree to which even the beneficial functions of short-sellers are cheered or not is dependent upon whose corruption they’re uncovering. Let the record show that when the S.E.C. imposed a ban on shorts of financial stocks in 2008, they routed short-sellers who were dead right about the insolubility of America’s banking sector. The state prevented their correct judgment about companies like Wachovia and Washington Mutual, whose stocks kept plunging even after the ban and went bust soon after.

  The shorts were right about all the other banks, too. The Inspector General of the TARP, Neil Barofsky, eventually told the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission that 12 of the 13 biggest banks were on the brink of failure when they got saved — by the short ban, by emergency overnight grants of commercial bank licenses to companies that weren’t commercial banks, by the bailouts, by the subsequent avalanche of underwriting fees, and most of all, by the lies about all of the above.

  The home of James “rude awakening” Gorman, Morgan Stanley, got its bank holding company license (and the lifesaving Fed credit lines that came with it) late on a Sunday night in September, 2008, because the firm couldn’t have opened its doors without it the next Monday morning. They’d have been blown to bits, by “fundamentals.” Instead, they got rescued, given a forever pass to keep feeding at the neck of society while claiming, falsely, to be not-failures and not-welfare recipients, better somehow than the “dumb money” they think should be theirs alone to manage.

  The rank selectivity of this makes any moral argument against the GameStop revolt moot. There’s no legitimate cause here, just an assertion of exclusive rights to plunder, which will doubtless be exercised now in the form of bans, investigations, and increased barriers to market entry. Probably also, in the political spirit of our times, there will some form of speech crackdown on platforms like Reddit, to protect us from the mob.

  About that: there are many making hay of a description found on a Subreddit, to the effect that wallstreetbets is “like 4Chan found a Bloomberg terminal.” A columnist at the Guardian, settling into the rhetorical line sure to find acceptance among the wine-and-MSNBC crowd, admitted to finding the rampaging-id dynamic on 4chan funny as a young person, but strange now to “witness a brief and regretful adolescent occupation re-emerge as a prominent cultural force.” The author wanted to admit to laughing at this “intentionally senseless” behavior, but ultimately decried the “transgressive attitudes” of the Redditors.

  This is where society will ultimately come down, of course, uniting to denounce $GME as financial Trumpism, even though it actually comes closer to being an updated and superior version of Occupy Wall Street. It’s likely not any evil manipulation scheme, but ordinary people acting — out of self-interest, but also out of sheer enthusiasm for one of the best reasons to do just about anything, because you can — on a few simple, powerful observations.

  They’ve seen first that our markets are basically fake, set up to artificially accelerate the wealth divide, and not in their favor. Secondly they see that the stock market, like the ballot box, remains one of the only places where sheer numbers still matter more than capital or connections. And they’re piling on, and it’s delicious, not so much because they’re right, but because the people running for cover are so wrong, and still can’t admit it.

  Buy the ticket, take the ride, nitwits. If you earned anything, it’s this.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 20:00

• Bill Gates Aghast Over 'Crazy And Evil Conspiracy Theories' About He And Fauci, Hints At Social Media Censorship
  Bill Gates Aghast Over ‘Crazy And Evil Conspiracy Theories’ About He And Fauci, Hints At Social Media Censorship

  Bill Gates is apparently shocked over ‘crazy and evil conspiracy theories’ which claim that he and Dr. Anthony Fauci are participating in a nefarious scheme to push vaccines, profit from the pandemic, and reduce the population.

  

  In Wednesday comments to Reuters, Gates said that there are “millions of messages out there” targeting he and Fauci, and suggested that “social media companies” might be able to censor discussion on the topic.

  “Nobody would have predicted that I and Dr. Fauci would be so prominent in really kind of evil theories about – did we create the pandemic, are we trying to profit from it? – and on and on,” said Gates, adding “We’re going to have to get educated about this over the next year and understand, how does it change people’s behavior?”

  “How should we have minimized this, either working with the social media companies or explaining what we were up to in a better way?“

  Gates’ motives have come under fire over his foundation’s 2019 participation in “Event 201“ – a collaboration between the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation which simulated a global pandemic after a fictional coronavirus broke out among pigs in Brazil, before spreading to farmers. In the simulation, the virus infected the globe within six months, and killed 65 million people, triggering a global financial crisis. All of this took place just months before COVID-19 emerged.

  In an April 2020 interview, Gates told the BBC: “Now here we are. We didn’t simulate this, we didn’t practice, so both the health policies and economic policies, we find ourselves in uncharted territory.”

  In April 2018, Gates told the Massachusetts Medical Society that “millions could die” if the United States doesn’t prepare for a coming pandemic. Specifically, Gates said the U.S. government is falling short in preparing the nation and the world for the “significant probability of a large and lethal modern-day pandemic occurring in our lifetimes.”

  In 2017, Gates told the Munich Security Conference that world leaders should “imagine that somewhere in the world a new weapon exists or could emerge that is capable of killing millions of people, bringing economies to a standstill, and casting nations into chaos. If it were a military weapon, the response would be to do everything possible to develop countermeasures,” adding that a “sense of urgency is lacking” over biological threats.

  And according to Robert F. Kennedy, Gates was involved in a Polio immunization program in India which paralyzed 490,000 children.

  Promising his share of $450 million of $1.2 billion to eradicate Polio, Gates took control of India’s National Technical Advisory Group on Immunization (NTAGI) which mandated up to 50 doses (Table 1) of polio vaccines through overlapping immunization programs to children before the age of five. Indian doctors blame the Gates campaign for a devastating non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (NPAFP) epidemic that paralyzed 490,000 children beyond expected rates between 2000 and 2017. In 2017, the Indian government dialed back Gates’ vaccine regimen and asked Gates and his vaccine policies to leave India. NPAFP rates dropped precipitously.

  In 2017, the World Health Organization (WHO) reluctantly admitted that the global explosion in polio is predominantly vaccine strain. The most frightening epidemics in Congo, Afghanistan, and the Philippines, are all linked to vaccines. In fact, by 2018, 70% of global polio cases were vaccine strain.

  India barred the Gates Foundation from funding part of its immunization program, citing concerns over ‘non-governmental organizations’ asserting control over decision making in key policy areas.

  Gates has also opined on the need to control population growth – for which a plethora of theories exist involving vaccines. In 2012, Gates said: “The problem is that the population is growing the fastest where people are less able to deal with it. So it’s in the very poorest places that you’re going to have a tripling in population by 2050. (…) And we’ve got to make sure that we help out with the tools now so that they don’t have an impossible situation later.“

  So, in case Gates is wondering just why people are skeptical over his push to vaccinate the world and take a key outside role in advising the Biden administration’s COVID-19 response, the above evidence may offer some clues.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 19:30

• 6 Warning Signs From Biden's First Week In Office
  6 Warning Signs From Biden’s First Week In Office

  Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

  The “progressive” candidate praised as a “woke bloke” seems to be carrying on where all his authoritarian Imperialist predecessors left off…

  

  It’s been a busy first week for the 46th President of the United States, there are the 20,000 troops occupying the capital city to organise, as well as the totally unprecedented show-trial of his immediate predecessor.

  You know, usual democracy type stuff.

  On top of that, Biden has now signed at least 37 executive orders in his first week. The record for any President, and more than the previous four presidents combined.

  What do these orders, or any of his other moves, tell us about the future plans of the recently “elected” administration? Nothing good, unfortunately.

  1. VACCINATION PASSPORTS

  I still remember people claiming the introduction of vaccination passports (or immunity passes or the like) was just a “conspiracy theory”, the paranoid fantasy of fringe “covidiots”. All the way back in December, when they were getting fact-checked by tabloid journalists who can’t do basic maths.

  These days they are rebranded as “freedom certificates” which are “divisive, politically tricky and probably inevitable”.

  Many countries are already preparing to roll it out, including Iceland the UK and South Africa. Biden’s “Executive Order on Promoting COVID-19 Safety in Domestic and International Travel” adds the US to this list:

  International Certificates of Vaccination or Prophylaxis. Consistent with applicable law, the Secretary of State, the Secretary of HHS, and the Secretary of Homeland Security (including through the Administrator of the TSA), in coordination with any relevant international organizations, shall assess the feasibility of linking COVID-19 vaccination to International Certificates of Vaccination or Prophylaxis (ICVP) and producing electronic versions of ICVPs.

  2. CABINET APPOINTMENTS

  Biden’s cabinet is praised as the “most diverse” in history, but will hiring a few non-white people really change the decades-old policies of US Imperialism? It certainly doesn’t look like it.

  His pick for Under Secretary of State is Victoria Nuland, a neocon warmonger and one of the masterminds of the Maidan coup in Ukraine in 2014. She is married to Robert Kagan, another neocon warmonger, co-founder of the Project for a New American Century and senior fellow at the Brookings Institute and one of the masterminds behind the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

  The incoming Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, is also an inveterate US Imperialist, arguing for every US military intervention since the 1990s, and criticised Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria.

  Biden’s pick for Defence Secretary is the first African-American ever appointed to this role, but former General Lloyd Austin is hardly going be some kind of “progressive” voice int his cabinet. He’s a career soldier who retired from the military in 2016 to join the board of Raytheon Technologies, an arms manufacturer and military contractor.

  As “diverse” as this cabinet may be in skin colour or gender…there is most certainly no “diversity” of opinion or policy. There are very few new faces and no new thoughts.

  So, it looks like we can expect more of the same in terms of foreign policy. A fact that’s already been displayed in…

  3. IRAQ…

  Despite heavy resistance from the military and Deep State, Donald Trump wanted to end the war in Iraq and pledged to pull American troops out of the country. This was one of Trump’s more popular policies, and during the campaign Biden made no mention of intending to reverse that decision.

  Then, on the very day of Biden’s inauguration, ISIS conducted their deadliest suicide bombing for over three years, and suddenly the situation was too unstable for the US to leave, and Biden is being forced to “review” Trump’s planned withdrawal.

  The Iraqi parliament has made it clear it wants the US to take its military off their soil, so any American forces on Iraqi land are technically there illegally in contravention of international law. But that never bothered them before.

  4. …AFGHANISTAN…

  Turns out the US can’t withdraw from Afghanistan either. Last February Trump signed a deal with the Taliban that all US personnel would leave Afghanistan by May 2021.

  Joe Biden has already committed to “reviewing” this deal. Sec. Blinken was quoted as saying that Biden’s admin wanted:

  to end this so-called forever war [but also] retain some capacity to deal with any resurgence of terrorism, which is what brought us there in the first place”.

  As a great man once said, nothing someone says before the word “but” really counts. The US will not be withdrawing from Afghanistan, and if there is any public pressure to do so, the government will simply claim the Taliban broke their side of the deal first, or stage a few terrorist attacks.

  5. …AND SYRIA

  Far from simply continuing the on-going wars, there are already signs Biden’s “diverse” team will look to escalate, or even start, other conflicts.

  Syria was another theatre of war from which Donald Trump wanted to extricate the United States, unilaterally ordering all US troops from the country in late 2019.

  We now know the Pentagon ignored those orders. They lied to the President, telling Trump they had followed his orders…but not withdrawing a single man. This organized mutiny against the Commander-in-Chief of the US Armed Forces was played for a joke in the media when it was finally revealed.

  There will be no need for any such duplicity now Biden is in the Oval Office, he was a vocal critic of the decision to withdraw, claiming it gave ISIS a “new lease of life”. Indeed, within two days of his being sworn in a column of American military vehicles was seen entering Syria from Iraq.

  6. DOMESTIC TERRORISM

  We called this before the inauguration. They made it just too obvious. Before the dirty footprints had been cleaned from Nancy Pelosi’s desk it was clear where it was all going.

  Within 24 hours of being sworn in as president, Biden had ordered a “review of the threat posed by domestic terrorism”.

  As usual, the press are laying down the covering fire for this. Talking heads have been busily comparing MAGA voters to al Qaida in television interviews. The Washington Post and New Yorker Journal have cut-and-paste pieces about this supposed threat. Politico published an article titled “Biden vowed to defeat domestic terrorism. The how is the hard part”, which outlines what Biden could do:

  Direct the Justice Department, FBI and National Security Council to execute a top-down approach prioritizing domestic terrorism; pass new domestic terrorism legislation; or do a bit of both as Democrats propose a crack down on social media giants like Facebook for algorithms that promote conspiracy laden posts.

  That last part is key. The “crack down on social media” part, because the anti-Domestic Terrorism legislation will likely be very focused on communication and so-called “misinformation”.

  Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez has publicly called for a congressional panel to “rein in” the media:

  We’re going to have to figure out how we rein in our media environment so you can’t just spew disinformation and misinformation,”

  And who will be the target of these crack downs and new legislations? Well, according John Brennan (ex-head of the CIA and accomplished war criminal), practically anybody:

  .@JohnBrennan: Biden intel community “are moving in laser-like fashion to try to uncover as much as they can about” the pro-Trump “insurgency” that harbors “religious extremists, authoritarians, fascists, bigots, racists, nativists, even libertarians” pic.twitter.com/SjVXWhPhR8

  — Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) January 20, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  They’re casting a wide net. Expect “extremist”, “bigot” and “racist” to be just a few of the words which have their meanings totally revised in the next few months. “Conspiracy theorist” will be used a lot, too.

  Further, they are moving closer and closer toward the “anyone who disagrees with us is literally insane” model. With many articles actually talking about “de-programming” Trump voters. The Atlantic suggests “mental hygiene” would cure the MAGA problem.

  Again AOC is on point here, clearly auditioning for the role of High Inquisitor, claiming that the new Biden government needs to fund programs that “de-radicalise” “conspiracy theorists” who are on the “spectrum of radicalisation”.

  *  *  *

  As I said at the beginning, it’s been a busy week for Joe Biden, but you can sum up his biggest policy plans in one short sentence: More violence overseas, less tolerance of dissent and strict clampdowns on “misinformation”.

  How progressive.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 19:00

• Goldman Warns If The Short Squeeze Continues, The Entire Market Could Crash
  Goldman Warns If The Short Squeeze Continues, The Entire Market Could Crash

  Last Friday (Jan 22) we advised readers who thought they had missed the move in Gamestop (they hadn’t), to position appropriately in the most shorted Russell 3000 names which included such tickers as FIZZ, DDS, BBBY, AMCX, GOGO and a handful of other names, as it was likely that the short-squeeze was only just starting.

  

  We were right and all of the stocks listed above – and others – exploded higher the coming Monday, and all other days of the week, with results – encapsulated by the WallStreetTips vs Wall Street feud – that have become the only topic of conversation across America (remember the Trump impeachment?), while on WSB the only topic has been the phenomenal gains generated by going long said most shorted stocks. To wit, the basket of top shorts we compiled on Jan 22 has tripled in the past week.

  

  And while some are quick to blame last week’s fireworks on the “dopamine rush” of traders at r/wallstreetbets who seek an outlet to being “copped up with little else to do during the pandemic” (as Bloomberg has done, while also blaming widespread lockdowns and forgetting that it has been Bloomberg that was among the most vocal defenders of the very lockdowns that have given us the short squeeze of the century), the reality is that at the end of the day the strategy unleashed by the subreddit is merely an extension of the bubble dynamics that were made possible by the Federal Reserve (of which Bloomberg is also a very staunch fan) pumping trillions and trillions of shotgunned liquidity into a financial system where there are now bubble visible anywhere one looks. In short, main street finally learned that it too can profit from the lunacy of the money printers at the Marriner Eccles building, and some are very unhappy about that (yes, it will end in tears, but – newsflash – $300 trillion in debt and $120BN in liquidity injections monthly will also end in tears).

  That aside, one week later, Goldman has finally caught up with what Zero Hedge readers knew one week ago, and all the way down to a chart showing a basket of the most-shorted Russell 3000 stocks…

  

  … Goldman’s David Kostin has published a post-mortem of what happened last week, writing that “the most heavily-shorted stocks have risen by 98% in the past three months, outstripping major short squeezes in 2000 and 2009.”

  He then points out something we discussed in “Hedge Funds Are Puking Longs To Cover Short-Squeeze Losses“, noting that while aggregate short interest levels are remarkably low (imagine what would have happened has shorting been far more aggressive marketwide)…

  

  … “the -4% weekly return of our Hedge Fund VIP list of the most popular hedge fund long positions (GSTHHVIP) showed how excess in one small part of the market can create contagion.”

  As an aside, and as we showed previously, as the most shorted stocks soared…

  

  … hedge funds were forced to cover (as well as paying for margin calls), and as part of the broader degrossing they also had to sell some of the favorite hedge fund names across the industry, in this case represented by the Goldman Hedge Fund VIP basket.

  

  Yet what may come as a surprise to some, even as hedge funds deleveraged aggressively and actively cut risk this week, gross and net exposures “remain close to the highest levels on record” (something which may come as a huge surprise to Marko Kolanovic who has been erroneously claiming the opposite), suggesting that if the squeeze continues, hedge funds are set for much more pain.

  

  According to Goldman Sachs Prime Services, this week “represented the largest active hedge fund de-grossing since February 2009. Funds in their coverage sold long positions and covered shorts in every sector” and yet “despite this active deleveraging, hedge fund net and gross exposures on a mark-to-market basis both remain close to the highest levels on record, indicating ongoing risk of positioning-driven sell-offs.”

  With that in mind, here are Kostin’s big picture thoughts:

  It was a placid week in the US stock market – provided one was a long-only mutual fund manager. US equity mutual funds and ETFs had $2 billion of net inflows last week (+$10 billion YTD). Although the typical large-cap core mutual fund fell by 2% this week, it has generated a return of +1.3% YTD vs. S&P 500 down -1.1%. However, life was very different last week if one managed a hedge fund. The typical US equity long/short fund returned -7% this week and has returned -6% YTD.

  With the average WSB portfolio up double digits this past week, one can see why hedge funds are upset. Anyway, moving on:

  The past 25 years have witnessed a number of sharp short squeezes in the US equity market, but none as extreme as has occurred recently.In the last three months, a basket containing the 50 Russell 3000 stocks with market caps above $1 billion and the largest short interest as a share of float (GSCBMSAL) has rallied by 98%.  This exceeded the 77% return of highly-shorted stocks during 2Q 2020, a 56% rally in mid-2009, and two distinct 72% rallies during the Tech Bubble in 1999 and 2000. This week the basket’s trailing 5-, 10-, and 21-day returns registered as the largest on record.

  Thanks Goldman, and yes, your “brisk assessment” would have been more useful to your clients if it had come before the event (like, for example, this) instead of after.

  Kostin then goes on to point out that the “mooning” in the most shorted stocks took place even though aggregate short interest was near record low (imagine what would have happened had short interest been higher), which is odd because historically, “major short squeezes have typically taken place as aggregate short interest declined from elevated levels. In contrast, the recent short squeeze has been driven by concentrated short positions in smaller companies, many of which had lagged dramatically and were perceived by most investors to be in secular decline” to wit:

  Unusually, the rally of the most heavily-shorted stocks has taken place against a backdrop of very low levels of aggregate short interest. At the start of this year, the median S&P 500 stock had short interest equating to just 1.5% of market cap, matching mid-2000 as the lowest share in at least the last 25 years. In the past, major short squeezes have typically taken place as aggregate short interest declined from elevated levels. In contrast, the recent short squeeze has been driven by concentrated short positions in smaller companies, many of which had lagged dramatically and were perceived by most investors to be in secular decline.

  Of course, there is nothing “historical” about what happened last week, because – as we all know – the biggest difference between the typical short squeeze of the past and the recent rally in heavily-shorted stocks “was the degree of involvement of retail traders, who also appear to have catalyzed sharp moves in other parts of the market.” Why thank you WSB, but that’s ok – you will be handsomely rewarded.

  Last week we discussed the surging trading activity and share prices of penny stocks, firms with negative earnings, and extremely high-growth, high-multiple stocks. These trends have all accompanied a large increase in online broker trading activity. A basket of retail favorites (ticker: GSXURFAV) has returned +17% YTD and +179% since the March 2020 low, outperforming both the S&P 500 (+72%) and our Hedge Fund VIP list of the most popular hedge fund long positions (GSTHHVIP, +106%).

  

  So why does this matter? One simple reason: contrary to the bizarrely nonchalant optimism spouted earlier this week by JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic who said “any market pullback, such as one driven by repositioning by a segment of the long-short community (and related to stocks of insignificant size), is a buying opportunity, in our view,” Goldman has a far more dismal take on recent events, and writes that “this week demonstrated that unsustainable excess in one small part of the market has the potential to tip a row of dominoes and create broader turmoil.”

  He then picks up on what he said last weekend when responding to Goldman client concerns about a stock bubble, which we summarized in “Goldman’s Clients Are Freaking Out About A Stock Bubble: Here Is The Bank’s Response“, and which turned out to be 100% warranted, and writes that “most of the bubble-like dynamics we highlighted last week have taken place in stocks constituting very small portions of total US equity market cap. Indeed, many of the shorts dominating headlines this week were (prior to this week) small-cap stocks. But large short squeezes led investors short these stocks to cover their positions and also reduce long positions, leading other holders of common positions to cut exposures in turn.”

  As a result, Goldman’s Hedge Fund VIP list declined by 4%. Which is a problem because as Kostin concludes, “in recent years elevated crowding, low turnover, and high concentration have been consistent patterns, boosting the risk that one fund’s unwind could snowball through the market.“

  Translation: if WSB continues to push the most shorted stocks higher, the entire market could crash.

  And since Kostin admits that “the retail trading boom can continue” as “an abundance of US household cash should continue to fuel the trading boom” with more than 50% of the $5 trillion in money market mutual funds owned by households and is $1 trillion greater than before the pandemic, what happens in the coming week – i.e., if the short squeeze persists – could have profound implications for the future of capital markets.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 18:30

• DoorDash Scam Found To Be Fraudulently Charging People Who Didn't Even Have The App
  DoorDash Scam Found To Be Fraudulently Charging People Who Didn’t Even Have The App

  By Becky Robertson of Eat & Drink

  Food delivery has been absolutely booming amid pandemic lockdown, which is perhaps what made a new DoorDash scam all the more easy to pull off.

  @DoorDash_Help Reported fraud on my account 4 (!) days ago and DoorDash still hasn’t done anything. I keep getting told to wait 24 hours. Someone stole over $120 from me and all I’ve been offered is $41.71 in DoorDash credits for an order I didn’t even place. I am livid.

  — Amara Meierhoff (@AmaraJo611) January 19, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  People across Canada and the U.S. recently found themselves hit with random debit charges from the California-based takeout delivery service — even those that have never even heard of the app.

  North of the border, the scam appeared to be limited to TD customers, some of who lost hundreds of dollars in phony charges for orders they didn’t place and DashPass memberships they didn’t sign up for.

  An exposé from the CBC found multiple citizens across six provinces including Ontario had been charged, even those who live in remote areas where DoorDash isn’t even offered. 

  It also seems that many of the targets weren’t even existing DoorDash customers, making the methodology of how the fraudsters got their banking info all the more sketchy.

  The origins of the scam and who is behind it have yet to come to light, but DoorDash has said that it is taking the situation very seriously and has worked with TD to resolve the issue through reimbursements.

  The company is in hot water for a number of other reasons as of late, including a class action lawsuit claiming it has been purposely diverting business away from restaurants who didn’t partner with it, creating phony landing pages and then listing them as “closed” to customers.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 18:00

• Biden Plagiarizes Again After Bloomberg Points Out Virus Plan Is Basically Trump's
  Biden Plagiarizes Again After Bloomberg Points Out Virus Plan Is Basically Trump’s

  While President Biden has done nothing but disparage President Trump’s COVID-19 vaccination plan – while promising on the campaign trail to ‘introduce his own,‘ it now appears there was no ‘new’ plan whatsoever – and his team is essentially using Trump’s playbook with “modest changes,” according to Bloomberg.

  

  Biden has said vaccine distribution was in “worse shape than we anticipated.” White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain said a Trump administration plan “did not really exist.” Adviser Cedric Richmond said they “didn’t leave a plan.” Xavier Becerra, Biden’s choice for health secretary, said it was like taking over a plane in a nosedive.

  But while Biden’s approach to the virus — frank warnings about the pandemic, mask mandates on federal property — is a reversal from Trump’s policies, his administration’s distribution of vaccines so far looks little different from that of its predecessor. Before Biden was sworn in, vaccines already were being delivered at a pace to meet his goal of 100 million doses in his first 100 days as president.

  The Biden administration has said they’ll order new doses, but will do so by exercising options in contracts negotiated by the previous administration, which thought it premature to do so. They say they’ll use the Defense Production Act, which Trump used repeatedly. Rather than a total overhaul, they have otherwise made course corrections and modest shifts. Data released Friday by Johnson & Johnson will fuel hopes that a third vaccine soon could hit the U.S. market. –Bloomberg

  Biden – who has a history of plagiarism – was essentially lying, especially when one considers the mammoth effort involved in distribution efforts which would make major changes costly and risk setbacks to the program. Bloomberg adds that “some aspects of the program don’t offer much wiggle room to begin with, while the trickiest part are yet to come.”

  Bloomberg does toss Biden a bone, however, reporting that Trump ‘undercut’ Biden’s efforts to shape the program by delaying the transition while disputing the results of the election. Trump’s team, however, says they had over 300 transition briefings with health officials – which Biden officials claim contained little useful information until just days before the inauguration.

  Meanwhile, officials from the Operation Warp Speed – the joint effort between the Trump administration’s Departments of Health and Human Services and DoD, say the partisan sniping from Biden’s team is hurting morale among career staff who are handling the vaccine rollout.

  “The transition is happening less well than I, and my team, had been hoping,” said Moncef Slaoui, chief scientific adviser to Operation Warp Speed. “The team doesn’t understand why the Operation is being criticized as it is. It is so unfair and unjustified.”

  “If it wasn’t for this Operation, we may not have as many vaccines as we will now.”

  Also pushing back against the Biden team’s besmirchments is Anthony Fauci, the highest-paid employee in the federal government and ongoing COVID-19 advisor to the Office of the President.

  “We certainly are not starting from scratch,” Fauci said earlier this month. “It’s taking what’s gone on, but amplifying it in a big way,” he added. Even Biden said that “credit is absolutely due” to the Trump administration for launching the vaccine program.

  The differences

  According to Bloomberg, “Biden is endorsing federally run community vaccination centers and mobile clinics,” and will attempt to provide states with a three-week supply, along with an increase in the number of people who can administer it. Trump officials, however, say the limitation is the number of vaccines, not healthcare professionals.

  Biden is also focusing on communities of color instead of devoting all resources to first vaccinating essential workers and those at most risk of dying from the virus. According to Biden, communities of color have been disproportionately affected by the virus.

  Yet, most of the plan remains unchanged.

  Via Bloomberg:

  [T]he biggest pieces of the distribution effort remain unchanged, undercutting claims from some Biden advisers that they inherited no plan. Many of the most stubborn bottlenecks don’t stem from the federal government’s decisions: Companies simply can’t produce vaccines fast enough and supplies are scarce; even if distribution goes smoothly, the administration of doses gets backed up at the local level.

  “What we’re seeing here is them marching through the playbook of Operation Warp Speed,” added Michael Pratt, a former Health and Human Services official under Trump. “Something cannot simultaneously be a dismal failure and have already accomplished the ‘ambitious goal’ you set.”

  Nearly every industrialized nation has been beset by vaccine delays. The European Union has moved to restrict vaccine exports. The U.S. has administered 8.3 doses per 100 people, trailing the U.K. and Israel yet outpacing Germany, Canada, France and the EU overall, according to Bloomberg’s Vaccine Tracker. –Bloomberg

  The Biden team has also retained many key Trump personnel, including the co-leader of Operation Warp Speed, General Gustave Perna.

  Furthermore, one of Biden’s key tools to move quickly on the virus response is the use of the Defense Production Act to prioritize the availability of certain materials and supplies – which the Trump administration used extensively.

  “It is really incorrect to say there was no plan — because we’re already achieving 1.3 million doses in arms per day, which exceeds the first goal President Biden had,” said Brett Giroir, who led the Trump administration’s program to ramp up widespread virus testing.

  One wild card is whether another vaccine will hit the market anytime soon. Late Friday, Johnson & Johnson announced that its single-dose vaccine generated strong protection against COVID-19 in a large, late-stage trial. The company expects it to be ‘quickly brought to market without the missed delivery timelines of the Pfizer shots.’ If authorized for use, the J&J vaccine could allow the Biden team to reach 2 million total doses per day according to a former Trump official.

  And that’s, the rest of the story…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 17:31

• Our Tech Minders & The Future Of Public Discourse
  Our Tech Minders & The Future Of Public Discourse

  Authored by Edward Morse, op-ed via The Epoch Times,

  Both Apple and Google have deplatformed Parler, a social media app widely used as an alternative channel for group communication.

  Amazon soon joined this effort by denying access to cloud services hosting Parler content. Other service providers apparently followed suit, constricting and perhaps exterminating Parler from among the options available to consumers.

  Parler was offline for over a week, until it eventually found a new platform, albeit one deprived of the convenient access allowed by apps. Parler users have also effectively been cancelled, regardless of their actual posting conduct, based on a professed concern about violent discourse on the site.

  Anyone who doubts that the large tech platforms have market power should take notice.

  Although competition provides alternatives in the long run, concentration within channels for app distribution and cloud hosting allowed Parler’s operations to be disrupted. In addition, competition in the marketplace of ideas became a little less robust—all based on discretionary judgments from minders in Big Tech. They profess a desire to protect us, but we have reason to question the evenhandedness of this putative protection and its contribution to our wellbeing.

  

  Bans and Suppression

  Twitter’s recent decision to ban President Donald Trump from its platform embraces a prophylactic approach to censorship. Twitter explained that it suspended Trump’s account “due to the risk of further incitement of violence.” (Of course, this presumes that he has incited violence in the first place.) In a blog the company describes as “your official source to what is happening,” Twitter officials explained that this decision depended on their contextual interpretation of two statements sent out by Trump:

  First, On Jan. 8 the president tweeted: “The 75,000,000 great American Patriots who voted for me, AMERICA First, and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, will have a GIANT VOICE long into the future. They will not be disrespected or treated unfairly in any way, shape or form!!!!”

  Second, according to Twitter, “shortly thereafter” the president tweeted: “To all of those who have asked, I will not be going to the Inauguration on January 20th.”

  Twitter explains:

  “Due to the ongoing tensions in the United States, and an uptick in the global conversation in regards to the people who violently stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021, these two Tweets must be read in the context of broader events in the country and the ways in which the President’s statements can be mobilized by different audiences, including to incite violence, as well as in the context of the pattern of behavior from this account in recent weeks. After assessing the language in these Tweets against our Glorification of Violence policy, we have determined these Tweets are in violation …”

  On their face, neither of the statements by the president incite violence. (Trump supporters do, indeed, face adverse consequences, making the first statement incorrect. But that’s another matter.) Neither asks for violent action nor expresses support for past violence. And if context is important, Twitter fails to note that the president clearly asked for peaceful demonstration in his speech to supporters, as well as in a subsequent Tweet, which Twitter suppressed. He also swiftly condemned the violence and promised prosecution for the perpetrators.

  Twitter bases its assessment solely on predictions about how different audiences might respond to these statements. Likewise, Facebook (including its Instagram service) issued its ban based solely on the perceived risk of what the speaker might say in the future, which is even more speculative than Twitter’s approach. Democrat political leaders cheered them on, even claiming that these efforts were too little, too, late. Apparently, they would have preferred that Trump had been banned instead of censored during the campaign.

  Keeping Dissent in the Open

  Political campaigns are indeed much easier and, on the surface, more harmonious if you can suppress competing voices. But this is not the way of a free society. If messages can be cancelled based on predictions about how audiences will read them, then there’s a lot more inciting going on than we’ve previously realized. Twitter allowed repeated posts that approved of violence. Did those posts incite more violence, too?

  And predictions about likely effects on the audience is all we need to suppress speech: Consider the repeated tag of “false” or “baseless” added to claims of election wrongdoing in news reports going back to the days immediately after the election—before there was time to investigate. Based on the likely impact of those words on Trump supporters, is that a form of incitement, too?

  Big Tech minders are also intervening in this arena. On Dec. 10, while considerable litigation and investigation of alleged voter fraud and official misconduct remained under investigation, YouTube announced that it would ban videos addressing possible election fraud or claiming that errors changed the outcome of the election, attaching the presumption that all such allegations are “false.” YouTube thus became the judge of election outcomes, at least for its own platform.

  Suppression has a superficial appeal by clearing dissent from a channel. This gives the appearance of harmony and squelches the expression of similar views by sending a judgment of inferiority to others. However, the source of that dissent likely remains, and the channel for expression simply moves elsewhere.

  Trump’s opponents expressed dissent after the 2016 election, but instead of suppression, our nation undertook a lengthy public investigation of claims about Russian meddling in the election. The media dutifully reported every conspiratorial claim, including those debunked as false after the facts emerged. In some cases, the mainstream media arguably proved too gullible. But at least dialogue and debate were not suppressed based on contestable predictions about how people might react. Other protests likewise raised alternative theories about racial and economic justice. Some of these theories are based on flawed factual predicates, but those faults were left to be exposed by debate.

  Allowing these processes of investigation and dialogue did not eliminate the left’s animosity toward the president or their desire to remove him from office. But choosing the path of suppression eliminates even the possibility for dialogue and reason to prevail over alternatives that might include violence.

  Maintaining Competition

  Suppression is an exercise of power, not reason. Even when exercised by private actors instead of the government, it erodes the public trust by treating people as wards and not citizens. Our system is designed to restrict government suppression, but we haven’t yet wrestled with conditions that involve private suppression to the extent we’re now experiencing. Ordinarily, market forces provide options—and that’s likely to occur in the long run if collusion doesn’t restrict new entrants. But in an environment of concentrated market power, we face new challenges.

  Cancelling and suppressing may not be limited to speech or speakers but could also extend to other channels. Consider Signal, which is one of the top-rated communication apps on both the Google and Apple platforms. It permits encrypted messaging to escape the prying habits of the Big Tech giants who profit from collecting and selling your information. However, it also avoids the surveillance efforts of law enforcement. If the effects of a channel involve carrying speech that might involve crime or violence, will Signal be deplatformed, too? Ironically, Jack Dorsey, CEO of Twitter, is prominently featured on Signal’s website as endorsing the service.

  Our Big Tech minders must stop this suppression. Other legal means to address violent conspiracies exist without the overbroad decision to cancel speakers or channels, particularly based on speculative concerns about what might be said rather than what was actually said. We must also recognize that other encrypted channels exist, such as Signal, which allow communications to be undetected—creating a privacy cloak that benefits both lawful and unlawful activity.

  Suppressing future speech because of a desire to suppress violence is not a persuasive reason—wouldn’t it be better to have that speech out in the open for all (including law enforcement) to witness? We are capable of minding ourselves and making our own judgments about the truth. Cancellation and suppression threatens all of us. It’s not just Trump supporters saying this; even the ACLU shares this concern.

  We must somehow come to terms with our history and tradition of robust debate in this country. Competition is good for us in the economic realm, and it’s good for us in the quest for truth. Competition provides a much-needed dose of humility, cautioning us that we might not have it all right and that we might have to cooperate with our fellow citizens, despite our disagreements.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 17:00

• Has The Robinhood Exodus Begun? 
  Has The Robinhood Exodus Begun? 

  There’s no telling how many Robinhood users are infuriated with the discount brokerage after last week’s GameStop snafu following trading restrictions and forced liquidations. Still, the evidence is mounting of a possible mass exodus. 

  First, Google spent late last week removing nearly 100,000 negative reviews from the Robinhood app in the Google Play Store. Disgruntled Robinhood users, many of whom were restricted in buying GameStop shares or options or were forced to liquidate after the “mother of all short squeezes.” 

  Here’s a screenshot from the Google Play store when Robinhood had a one-star rating and nearly 275,000 reviews:

  

  Meanwhile, internet searches for “delete Robinhood” have gone parabolic in recent days, with other search queries including “how to delete Robinhood,” “delete my Robinhood account,” and, “how to delete a Robinhood account” surging across the country. 

  

  On Friday evening, in Google’s search engine, typing the word “delete” followed with “delete Rboinhood account” in the number two search spot.

  

  Someone created a petition on Change.org titled “Remove Robinhood From App Store,” which already has 32k signatures, with the needed goal of 35k. 

  

  The petition reads: 

  It’s clear that Robinhood doesn’t want individuals to make their own decisions, but large institutions like hedge funds can do as they please.

  Robinhood is in CLEAR violation of Apple’s Terms of Service to “plan or engage in any illegal, fraudulent, or manipulative activity.” You can find Apple’s full terms of service here: https://www.apple.com/legal/internet-services/itunes/us/terms.html

  Robinhood MANIPULATED the market today, and this is completely unacceptable. We need to remove Robinhood from the App Store. Move all your funds out of Robinhood today, do not give them your business. 

  … and an interesting few tweets from Tesla Uber-Bull Ross Gerber on the subject: 

  “Robinhood is basically not letting people trade anymore. This is the precursor to a potential BK filing on Monday morning. They’ll be calling their VC backers for billions more this weekend. And when they say No… this is like LTCM,” Gerber tweeted. 

  He said, “So if Robinhood goes under the SEC will freeze all the accounts. The SIPC protects up to $500k in accounts. It takes months to unwind and get your money back. Move the money now. This could become a nightmare.” 

  “Robinhood is dealing with the classic run on the bank scenario. Everyone wants out but they can’t process it fast enough depleting needed capital as fast as they can get new VC Capital in. So they need to put up more margin and they are losing Capital out the door,” Gerber warned. 

  There’s good news for Robinhooders fleeing the platform, brokerage WeBull announced late last week that GME, AMC, and KOSS were no longer restricted.

  Something bad is about to go down at Robinhood… 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 16:30

• "Republicans Need To Suffer": Drake Prof Triggers Free Speech Debate With Hateful Tweets Against Men, Conservatives
  “Republicans Need To Suffer”: Drake Prof Triggers Free Speech Debate With Hateful Tweets Against Men, Conservatives

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  There is a free speech debate at Drake University over hateful and vulgar tweets from Associate English Professor Beth Younger, who called for Republicans “to suffer.” We have seen increasing vulgar attacks from academics, including such high-profile figures as Laurence Tribe in the last few years. Notably, Twitter did not suspend Younger’s account for calling for harm to all Republicans. I do not believe that she should be barred from social media or fired from Drake as a matter of free speech. Even with professors who have justified the murder of conservatives or killing police are protected in such hateful expressions. 

  The solution to such hate speech is more (and better) speech.  I would rather we denounce such speech than censor it.

  

  Beth Younger tweeted on October 26th that  “I was just pondering how much hatred I feel towards all the Republican a**holes. They need to suffer.”

  Younger also declared that all “men are trash.” and sent a message to U.S. Senator Josh Hawley on Jan. 7 that stated “f**k of you piece of shit.” She also attacked Melania Trump and called Secretary Mike Pompeo a “f**king moron and a traitor.”

  Such sentiments are obviously concerning given many Republican students and presumably faculty on campus. It also have an impact on male students taking her class with her stated hatred for their gender.  In a compelling and well-considered email, President Marty Martin  correctly condemned Younger’s comments as “unacceptable.” Martin however stressed freedom of speech in her email this week:

  The Drake University Statement of Principles declares that freedom of thought and freedom of expression are central to our educational mission. We therefore carefully refrain from restricting the exchange of ideas or regulating the content of speech. We recognize that the frank and open discussion of social, cultural, artistic, religious, moral, scientific, and political issues may be disturbing and even hurtful for some individuals, but the principle of free exchange and inquiry takes precedence because of its fundamental role in our educational enterprise. We seek to create through this robust exchange of ideas a community in which shared purpose transcends difference and respect for human dignity transcends conflict.

  Younger’s tweets raise serious questions over sexist and political intolerance.  However, there is no allegation that she has engaged in discriminatory or hateful conduct in classes.  The question is whether universities would maintain such a position in favor of free speech if the statements targeted other groups like a male professor saying the same thing about women. It is not clear if there is a coherent line or policy on such cases. Free speech demands bright lines but the record among universities has been conflicted. I often hear from conservative and libertarian faculty about what they view as a double standard.  They do not believe that the universities would show equal tolerance for criticism, let alone hateful attacks, of other groups. Certainly many liberal faculty and students have not shown the same tolerance.

  As many on this blog are aware, I tend to be predictable on free speech issues.  My natural default is to protect speech, particularly when exercised off campus or on social media. These are difficult cases when statements reflect prejudice and sexism as in the case of Professor Younger.  However, there is a fear of a slippery slope once universities begin to punish those with unacceptable views expressed in their private capacity.  We have been discussing efforts to fire professors who voice dissenting views of the basis or demands of recent protests including an effort to oust a leading economist from the University of Chicago as well as a leading linguistics professor at Harvard and a literature professor at Penn. The silence of many faculty in the face of crackdowns on free speech has been chilling in the last few years.

  There is a palpable sense of fear among many conservative and libertarian faculty and students that they cannot express themselves on campus or in classes without be ostracized or even subjected to retaliatory measures, including attacks by the student government. While faculty member like Professor Younger might not show the same tolerance for opposing views, we have a greater responsibility to regain the trust of our communities in the tolerance for opposing views and expression on our campuses. She is the cost of free speech.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 16:00

• Reddit Preparing To Unleash "World's Biggest Short Squeeze" In Silver
  Reddit Preparing To Unleash “World’s Biggest Short Squeeze” In Silver

  While all eyes have been focused on GameStop and a handful of other heavily-shorted stocks as they exploded higher under continuous fire from WallStreetBets traders igniting a short-squeeze coinciding with a gamma-squeeze, the last few days saw another asset suddenly get in the crosshairs of the ‘Reddit-Raiders’ – Silver.

  On Thursday, we asked “Is The Reddit Rebellion About To Descend On The Precious Metals Market?” … One WallStreetBets user (jjalj30) posted the following last night:

  Silver Bullion Market is one of the most manipulated on earth. Any short squeeze in silver paper shorts would be EPIC. We know billion banks are manipulating gold and silver to cover real inflation.

  Both the industrial case and monetary case, debt printing has never been more favorable for the No. 1 inflation hedge Silver.

  Inflation adjusted Silver should be at 1000$ instead of 25$. Link to post removed by mods.

  Why not squeeze $SLV to real physical price.

  Think about the Gainz. If you don’t care about the gains, think about the banks like JP MORGAN you’d be destroying along the way.

  …

  Tldr- Corner the market. GV thinks its possible to squeeze $SLV, FUCK AFTER SEEING $AG AND $GME EVEN I THINK WE CAN DO IT. BUY $SLV GO ALL IN TH GAINZ WILL BE UNLIMITED. DEMAND PHYSICAL IF YOU CAN. FUCK THE BANKS.

  Disclaimer: This is not Financial advice. I am not a financial services professional. This is my personal opinion and speculation as an uneducated and uninformed person.

  …and judging by the unprecedented flows into the Silver ETF (SLV) they just got started…

  SLV saw inflows of almost one billion dollars on Friday, almost double the previous record inflow for this 15 year-old ETF.

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Which helped prompt a spike in SLV off Wednesday’s lows of over 11% (and note that every surge in price was mimicked by gold, but gold was instantly monkey-hammered lower after the spike).

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  And judging by the asset flow, SLV has room to run here…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Just as short-interest in the ETF has been building…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  This surge came after Reddit user ‘TheHappyHawaiian’ posted the following thesis on buying silver noting that “the worlds biggest short squeeze is possible and we can make history.”

  ‘TheHappyHawaiian’ cites two reasons to buy – The Short Squeeze and Fundamentals.

  The short squeeze:

  Buy SLV shares (or PSLV shares) and SLV call options to force physical delivery of silver to the SLV vaults.

  The silver futures market has oscillated between having roughly 100-1 and 500-1 ratio of paper traded silver to physical silver, but lets call it 250-1 for now. This means that for every 250 ounces in open interest in the futures market, only 1 actually gets delivered. Most traders would rather settle with cash rather than take delivery of thousands of ounces of silver and have to figure out to store and transport it in the future.

  The people naked shorting silver via the futures markets are a couple of large banks and making them pay dearly for their over leveraged naked shorts would be incredible. It’s not Melvin capital on the other side of this trade, its JP Morgan. Time to get some payback for the bailouts and manipulation they’ve done for decades (look up silver manipulation fines that JPM has paid over the years).

  The way the squeeze could occur is by forcing a much higher percentage of the futures contracts to actually deliver physical silver. There is very little silver in the COMEX vaults or available to actually be use to deliver, and if they have to start buying en masse on the open market they will drive the price massively higher. There is no way to magically create more physical silver in the world that is ready to be delivered. With a stock you can eventually just issue more shares if the price rises too much, but this simply isn’t the case here. The futures market is kind of the wild west of the financial world. Real commodities are being traded, and if you are short, you literally have to deliver thousands of ounces of silver per contract if the holder on the other side demands it. If you remember oil going negative back in May, that was possible because futures are allowed to trade to their true value. They aren’t halted and that’s what will make this so fun when the true squeeze happens.

  Edit for more detail: let’s say there’s one futures seller who gets unlucky and gets the buyer who actually wants to take delivery. He doesn’t have the silver and realizes it’s all of a sudden damn difficult to find some physical silver. He throws up his hands and just goes long a matching number of futures contracts and will demand actual delivery on those. Problem solved because he has now matched the demanding buyer with a new seller. The issue is that the new seller has the same issue and does the exact same thing. This is how the cascade effect of a meltup occurs. All the naked shorts trying to offload their position to someone who actually has some silver. My goal is to ensure that I have the silver and won’t sell to them until silver is at a far higher price due to the desperation.

  The silver market is much larger than GME in terms of notional value, but there is very little physical silver actually readily available (think about the difference between total shares and the shares in the active float for a stock), and the paper silver trading hands in the futures market is hundreds of times larger than what is available. Thus when they are forced to actually deliver physical silver it will create a massive short squeeze where an absurd amount of silver will be sought after (to fulfill their contractually obligated delivery) with very little available to actually buy. They are naked shorting silver and will have to cover all at once and the float as a percentage of the total silver stock globally is truly miniscule.

  The fundamentals:

  The current gold to silver ratio is 73-1. Meaning the price of gold per ounce is 73 times the price of silver. Naturally occurring silver is only 18.75 times as common as gold, so this ratio of 73-1 is quite high. Until the early 20th century, silver prices were pegged at a 15-1 ratio to gold in the US because this ratio was relatively known even then. In terms of current production, the ratio is even lower at 8-1. Meaning the world is only producing 8 ounces of silver for each newly produced ounce of gold.

  Global industry has been able to get away with producing so little new silver for so long because governments have dumped silver on the market for 80 years, but now their silver vaults are empty. At the end of WW2 government vaults globally contained 10 billion ounces of silver, but as we moved to fiat currency and away from precious metal backed currencies, the amount held by governments has decreased to only 0.24 billion ounces as they dumped their supply into the market. But this dumping is done now as their remaining supply is basically nil.

  This 0.24 billion ounces represents only 8% of the total supply of only 3 billion ounces stored as investment globally. This means that 92% of that gold is held privately by institutions and by millions of boomer gold and silver bugs who have been sitting on meager gains for decades. These boomers aren’t going to sell no matter what because they see their silver cache as part of their doomsday prepper supplies. It’s locked away in bunkers they built 500 miles from their house. Also, with silver at $23 an ounce currently, this means all of the worlds investment grade silver only has a total market cap of $70 billion. For comparison the investment grade gold in the world is worth roughly $6 trillion. This is because most of the silver produced each year actually gets used, as I have mentioned. $70 billion sounds like a lot, but we don’t have to buy all that much for the price to go up a lot.

  **If the squeeze happens, it would be like 40 years worth of their gains in 4 months **

  The reason that only 8 ounces of silver are produced for every 1 ounce of gold in today’s world is because there aren’t really any good naturally occurring silver deposits left in the world. Silver is more common than gold in the earth’s crust, but it is spread very thin. Thus nearly every ounce of silver produces is actually a byproduct of mining for other metals such as gold or copper. This means that even as the silver price skyrockets, it wont be easy to increase the supply of silver being produced. Even if new mines were to be constructed, it could take years to come online.

  Finally, most of this newly created silver supply each year is used for productive purposes rather than kept for investment. It is used in electronics, solar panels, and jewelry for the most part. This demand wont go away if the silver price rises, so the short sellers will be trying to get their hands on a very small slice of newly minted silver. The solar market is also growing quickly and political pressure to increase solar and electric vehicles could provide more industrial demand.

  The other part of the story is the faster moving piece and that is the inflation and currency debasement fear portion. The government and the fed are printing money like crazy debasing the value of the dollar, so investors look for real assets like precious metals to hide out in, driving demand for silver. The $1.9 trillion stimulus passing in a month or two could be a good catalyst. All this money combined with the reopening of the economy could cause some solid inflation to occur, and once inflation starts it often feeds on itself.

  What to buy:

  I will be putting 50% directly into SLV shares, and 50% into the $35 strike SLV calls expiring 4/16.

  

  This way the SLV purchase creates a groundswell into silver immediately that then rockets through a gamma squeeze as SLV approaches $35.

  Price target of $75 for SLV by end of April if the short squeeze happens.

  Edit: for the part of your purchases going into shares, some people recommend PSLV because they think SLV might start lying about having the silver in their vault. Or that the custodian will be double counting, ie claiming that the same silver belongs to multiple people (banking on the fact that people wont all try to get their silver at once). So if you buy SLV shares and calls, that’s great. But I think it could be prudent for us to buy options in SLV (no options on PSLV) and shares in PSLV. It all depends on how paranoid you want to be. There is a lot of paranoia in the precious metals world.

  Alternate options:

  • buying physical silver; this also works but you pay a premium to buy and sell so its less efficient and you take fewer silver ounces off of the market because of the premium you pay

  • going long futures for February or March; if you are a rich bastard and can actually take physical delivery of 1000s of ounces of silver by all means do so. But if you simply settle for cash you are actually part of the problem. We need actual physical delivery, which is what SLV demands and is why SLV is the way to go unless you are going to take delivery

  • miners; I don’t recommend buying miners as part of this trade. Miners will absolutely go up if SLV goes up, but buying them doesn’t create the squeeze in the actual silver market. Furthermore, most silver miners only derive 30-50% of their revenue from silver anyways, so eventually SLV will outperform them as it gets high enough (and each marginal SLV dollar only increases miner profits by a smaller and smaller percentage)

  Details on SLV physical settlement:

  When SLV issues shares, the custodian is forced to true up their vaults with the proportional amount of silver daily. From the SLV prospectus:

  “An investment in Shares is: Backed by silver held by the Custodian on behalf of the Trust. The Shares are backed by the assets of the Trust. The Trustee’s arrangements with the Custodian contemplate that at the end of each business day there can be in the Trust account maintained by the Custodian no more than 1,100 ounces of silver in an unallocated form. The bulk of the Trust’s silver holdings is represented by physical silver, identified on the Custodian’s or, if applicable, sub-custodian’s, books in allocated and unallocated accounts on behalf of the Trust and is held by the Custodian in London, New York and other locations that may be authorized in the future.”

  ‘TheHappyHawaiian” ends with a call to (financial) arms:

  Join me brothers. Lets take silver to the moon and take on the biggest and baddest manipulators in the world.

  Please post rocket emojis in the comments as desired.

  Disclaimer: do your own research, make your own decisions, everything here is a guess and hypothetical and nothing is guaranteed, not a financial advisor, I have ADHD and maybe other things too.

  Bear case: silver does tend to sell off if the broader market plunges so it’s not immune to broad market sell off. It’s also the most manipulated market in the world so we are facing some tough competition on the short side

  Interestingly, ‘TheHappyHawaiian’ dropped this update on 1/29:

  Due to the manipulation and collusion of citadel, hedge funds, and brokers to change the rules and rig the game in their favor. Who likely knew ahead of time and bought puts right before and calls at the bottom, GME is too important to abandon still. SLV is still my next play but GME needs to go to $1000 and these people need to go to jail.

  However, judging by the massive physical premiums for silver we are seeing this weekend at APMEX…

  

  … and JM Bullion…

  

  …there are more than a few who are already rotating to SLV from GME.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 15:30

• Revolution, Revenge Of The Nerds, Or The Matrix Reloaded?
  Revolution, Revenge Of The Nerds, Or The Matrix Reloaded?

  Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

  I have to say as revolutions go, this one is hilarious.

  

  GameStop opened Friday morning above $330 per share, a sentence I never thought in a million years I’d ever write.

  This open nearly ensures that all the attempts Thursday to push the price back down to bail out the hedge funds desperately short have failed spectacularly.

  There’s options expiration today which will fundamentally change the way we look at markets if Game Spot closes in this range.

  Because it shows that when people act in the aggregate they can overwhelm the attempts by a few central planners to control you.

  Your best proof that this is at least a part of what’s going on is the way Wall St. and the regulators in D.C. are reacting. Because they are screaming that this is outrageous, that we need stronger enforcement tools to ‘ensure the integrity of our markets.’

  That’s just code for ‘only we’re allowed to game the markets not the little people.’

  And with options expiring on GameStop nearly every week in February and March this game isn’t over by any stretch of the imagination.

  Populist is a Four-Letter Work

  In fact, It’s the beginning of a new form of populist revolt.

  We’ve seen what they think of populist revolts. They have utter disdain for them. They squash them and hope to ignore the consequences.

  Vote for Trump? Can’t have that happen again.

  Speak out against any facet of the Great Reset? Get censored.

  Try to build a new platform not controlled by them? Get deplatformed.

  Show up at the Capitol to peacefully assemble? Get caught up in a false flag to justify arresting you and shaming you into submission.

  Today’s price action in Game Spot and other stocks heavily-shorted by hedge funds is simply the next iteration of the people finding ways to make their voices heard.

  If you remove someone’s ability to speak in one arena they will find a way in another.

  

  And don’t for a second think the irony of this evolution of Occupy Wall St. occurring during the World Economic Forum’s virtual Davos is lost on me.

  It isn’t.

  In an age where we are forced to wear masks in ritual submission to oligarchic control they hide behind ever bigger barriers to our hatred of them.

  As we saw on Capitol Hill three weeks ago, public assembly in the age of COVID is a recipe for even more ‘wound collecting‘ by the oligarchy, who have their media quislings turn into it bad PR for how unruly the little people are to scare the ‘normies.’

  Black-Scholes Event Horizon

  But what happens when the little people don’t care about making money or any of those other ‘rational’ investor/actor assumptions which undergird the value-at-risk equations used by most hedge funds and Wall St. quants?

  What happens when someone finally blows the lid off the assumption that the risk-free rate of return, R* in the Black Scholes Equation, is anything less than 1000% for $100 call option on Game Spot?

  Well, today it means a few rich people will be made poor and a lot of poor people richer.

  The bigger question however, about all of this is what happens when, finally, the markets admit that R* for U.S. Treasuries is not zero?

  Because that’s what this whole Game Spot Revolution is really about, opening up major cracks in the confidence and validity of the institutions that are supposed to be so unassailably powerful that markets rely on to justify insane valuation models.

  They made a mistake staging their failed Tiananmen Square moment at the Capitol. No one other than them was really upset about it other than people getting shot (Her name was Ashli Babbitt).

  It means that for a moment, and possibly a few more moments, given how screwed up our financial system is, the little guy’s anger just got capitalized.

  They Hate US for Our Freedoms

  And the irony is the seed capital for this came from their own disdain for us.

  When the last round of stimulus checks showed up, I don’t know about you but I was angry. My wife and I stared at it for a few days and doing so made us viscerally mad.

  It represented just how little they thought of all the people whose lives they’d ruined. Paying out the bare minimum to hold us over until they’d fully consolidated power behind barricades and 25,000 troops in D.C.

  When asked about what I would do with my stimmy check I replied the same way every time, “Pay my taxes with it.”

  But even if 2020 was good for you financially as it was, admittedly for me, all of this COVID-destruction destroyed something far more important: quality of life.

  It wasn’t about the money, it was about what was truly lost. The personal bonds broken, the psychological damage to my daughter trying to school via Zoom while going slowly insane.

  The destruction of my weekly ‘guys night out’ board gaming group and, now, my martial arts school, a staple in our lives for over 25 years. We shared one last pitcher of beer last night holding back tears.

  The haunted looks of my friends and favorite local vendors trying to keep it together.

  We all have those stories. They take their toll. The scar tissue builds.

  So, when that check showed up after six months of Nancy Pelosi burning down people’s lives even more to burn down her nemesis Donald Trump, we all knew what the score was.

  They care about you like a virus cares about its host.

  And finally, after a year of this, instead of sitting around wondering what DLC to buy for Fortnight with their stimulus check a bunch of really angry smart guys said, “You know what? Fuck these assholes.”

  Hours after we tweeted this in June, we got the following letter from Citadel’s lawyers pic.twitter.com/Zy2m2fC6kM

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 29, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And they got a whole lot of people with nothing left to lose (except their payola to not disturb Queen Nancy) to go along with them.

  Revenge of the Nerds?

  That anger, as I said, is now pretty well capitalized, the same way that 2017’s cryptocurrency rally capitalized a whole lot of committed anarcho-assholes of all political stripes to build on top of bitcoin’s reserve status.

  The early fruits of that labor are also on display today. Not because these guys are pushing their GameStop profits into Dogecoin but because after a massive coordinated attack to break Bitcoin after the peak near $42,000 two weeks ago, it couldn’t be beaten back below $20,000, the previous all-time high.

  All of a sudden there were places to park crypto-profits which weren’t U.S. dollars, the asset where all the off-ramps could be shut off and the little people trapped inside Coinbase getting slaughtered while it’s ‘down for maintenance.’

  That’s why today is so fascinating. Wall St. thought all they had to do was double down on their GameStop shorts and use their hammer to beat the nails back into the board.

  It didn’t work. By then this thing had gone global.

  Now, you have to wonder who was helping the rabble push GameStop back above the $210 Maginot Line? Once something like this starts Wall St.’s enemies start coming out of the woodwork to piggy back on the chaos and change the board state of global markets.

  Think China, Russia and everyone else sanctioned to hell and gone by Neocons in our government in the service of Israel.

  And yesterday’s close forced a lot of people to scramble and find the money they need to cover their losses or these meme-lords will own enough shares to not only own Game Spot’s board but also have money left over to go after someone else.

  Maybe American Airlines? Maybe Blackberry? Maybe Nokia?

  This is the first real battle in an asymmetric war.

  And those stocks would be very interesting to see successful populist raids on. Can we say hostile takeover and a recapitalization of Blackberry or Nokia outside of the Apple/Google mobile web duopoly?

  I’d sell my iPhone if that happened.

  Hey, I’m just vamping here, but if these guys are serious about doing damage and re-leveling the playing field that financial advice I’m not allowed to give you can have for free.

  Reality is that which, when you stop….

  At the same time there’s also the reality that when the masses storm the financial Bastille like this there’s a lot of bystanders run over in the process.

  The guys at r/WallStreetBets understood the structure of the markets. They understand that Robinhood had to shut down trading on Game Spot and others simply because Robinhood wouldn’t have enough cash to post the required collateral thanks to Dodd-Frank.

  Postscript: This thread is the best explainer on the regulatory capital issues I referenced. (Ht: @The_Analyst) https://t.co/jWjtXjh5aQ

  — Diogenes (@WallStCynic) January 29, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Moreover, it’s going to cause real problems with clearinghouses and primary banks. Robinhood had to tap more than a billion dollars to cover the collateral.

  And today’s close will make that number bigger. Which makes me wonder if this chaos unleashed by the Game Spot Revolution doesn’t have a more sinister angle.

  One where an upstart retail brokerage was stealing too much market share for trading fees and, like the proles on Reddit, was making too much money threatening the someone else’s business.

  … Believing in it Doesn’t Go Away.

  So, is this an elaborate hit job inside of this populist uprising like what we saw at the Capitol on January 6th?

  Like I said at the outset the usual suspects are all out their today saying we need wealth taxes and trading fees on stock trades. There will be punishment for upsetting the sanctity of our capital markets.

  Are we all just, as always, having our chain jerked by a bunch of psychopaths looking to advance a new regulatory environment where the validity of capital markets themselves are undermined?

  Because, you don’t think the Commies who just performed a coup in D.C. through blatant election fraud and whose Masters are bloviating about ‘rebooting capitalism’ as I type this would concoct such a thing would you?

  Surely things couldn’t be that corrupt? No. Power to the Short Squeeze and all hail Elon Musk!

  If you don’t think that’s possible then I’ve got some GameStop January 2023 Leaps at $250 strike price to sell you. As many as you like… 140% of the float even.

  I sincerely hope I’m wrong but something tells me I’m not being cynical enough.

  *  *  *

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  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 15:00

• Mark Cuban Presents A "Little Trick" For Creating The Mother Of All Short Squeezes
  Mark Cuban Presents A “Little Trick” For Creating The Mother Of All Short Squeezes

  A few days ago when Wall Street was panicking over the unprecedented short squeeze that had sent the most shorted names soaring and streamrolling hedge funds such as Melvin Capital, Maplelane and countless others, we said that instead of engaging in damage control already perhaps Wall Street should consider how much worse it could still get. To wit, late on Jan 26 we said that a “little trick” that is available (for those with cash accounts) was for holders of GME stock to call back shares they owned of the heavily shorted names.

  Here’s a little trick: everyone who is long GME should instruct their broker tomorrow to make their shares not lendable.

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 27, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Just a few hours later, early in the Thursday premarket session, things started to really move: that’s when GME hit an all time high of $513.12 which has yet to be topped.

  So did people call back their shares? Perhaps, we don’t know, or maybe that’s about to happen. According to S3 Partners, the total short interest is still a whopping 113% of the float, which means the squeeze could easily go on for a long time if the buyers kept applying pressure.

  And none other than Mark Cuban may have assured of just that.

  In a series of tweets on Friday, the iconic investor and “shark” compared the lending and rebate payment mechanism in stocks vs DeFi crypto tokens (where the bearer gets the benefit of the borrow fee and not the broker) and said – in an almost verbatim paraphrase of our “tricky” tweet from two days earlier – the following:

  “one trick that I have been on both sides of is to lend out stock to shorts at a high APY and then call back my shares, which forces the short to cover. Now if #WSB did this en masse, it would be the mother of all short squeezes “.

  Cuban made another point which we also addressed previously, namely that with millions of new users signing up to r/WallStreetBets where each trader has an average brokerage account of $5,000 (soon to get another $1,400 “stimmy check” infusion), the subreddit has become the world’s biggest distributed, decentralized hedge fund with a “hive mind”, where all the individual traders coordinate and work as one, and one which can steamroll over virtually any Wall Street veteran. In fact, at this rate, Once WSB has 15 million or so members – which should happen by the end of the week, as it now has a whopping 7 million up from 2 million at the start of the week…

  /r/WallStreetBets Traffic Growth: What going viral looks like pic.twitter.com/rBAt3CTMWu

  — wallstreetbets mods (@wsbmod) January 30, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … it will have more monetary firepower than the world’s biggest hedge fund (central banks not included) Bridgewater:

  It’s becoming the biggest distributed hedge fund in the world https://t.co/LG4FskAjmH

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 29, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And here’s Cuban on this topic too: “The beauty of what has happened with #WSB is that Wall street is learning an expensive lesson that The Way Things Have Always Been Done is not How Things Should Be Done. There is power in numbers working together. Buy and Trade Together can be a whole lot more powerful than old-school buy and hold. Im not saying HODLing stocks is bad. It can be great and have the same impact as HODLing crypto. And the same principals even apply. The number of shares outstanding and their growth is comparable to coins mined (without the algorithmic control).”

  His full thread is below (source):

  Lets talk $GME shorts vs De-Fi. When someone shorts a stock that is already heavily shorted, they have to pay a fee to borrow that stock. In the case of $GME that fee has been hovering around 30% this week. Shorts have to pay (Price x .30)/360 per day. In DeFi thats a 30% APY.

  For RH Traders that own $GME that money, as best I can tell, is held in street name. Which means that 30% APR goes 100pct to @RobinhoodApp 😬😬😬. Imagine if you pooled your crypto and the platform was getting 30% APY and didnt pay all but fees to you ? What would happen ?

  This is one more way that Wall St takes advantage of the little guy. If you are moving from RH, look to see if you can find some place that allows you to hold the shares and lend them in YOUR name, so you get the Yield (Yield Farming in stocks !). Not all will allow it.

  But if they do, one trick that I have been on both sides of is to lend out stock to shorts at a high APY and then call back my shares, which forces the short to cover. Now if #WSB did this en masse, it would be the mother of all short squeezes .

  The beauty of what has happened with #WSB is that Wall street is learning an expensive lesson that The Way Things Have Always Been Done is not How Things Should Be Done. There is power in numbers working together. Buy and Trade Together can be a whole lot more powerful than old-school buy and hold. Im not saying HODLing stocks is bad. It can be great and have the same impact as HODLing crypto. And the same principals even apply. The number of shares outstanding and their growth is comparable to coins mined (without the algorithmic control).

  If small trades can work together and share information together the power to move stock pricing moves quickly from the analyst on Wall Street to the people working together. There is one VERY IMPORTANT caveat. No amount of trading together can keep a bad company in business.

  But if individual traders educate each other and use their combined strength to focus on good companies , with strong prospects, the power shifts from wall street to main street, particularly now that Direct Listings are changing the IPO game. Thoughts ? Comments ?

  So for all those wondering how and when GameStop will Stop, and if the squeeze is finally over, as long as iconic figures with a chip on their shoulder and a desire to inflict more pain on Wall Street continue to chime in with perspectives on how to keep the pain up, it is likely that the unprecedented short squeeze mania is not over by a long shot. And furthermore, with borrow costs now at 50%, even in the absence of further painful gains in the stock price the cost of carry alone will force the shorts to cover in the coming days should the price of GME fail to drop.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 14:45

• COVID Lockdowns Spark Biggest Cigarette Sales Spike In Years
  COVID Lockdowns Spark Biggest Cigarette Sales Spike In Years

  During the first months of quarantine, when nobody really had any idea whether they’d be seeing their colleagues again next week, next month, or next year, reporters churned out stories about people walking, jogging or otherwise exercising to try and squeeze out a little endorphin boost while also helping to prepare one’s body for the worst-case scenario (after all the stories we have published about COVID “long haulers”, those risks, however slight, should be widely understood).

  But as the months dragged on, it appears Americans turned instead to a quick buzz as rates of drinking alcohol, using drugs and, now, smoking cigarettes climbed. As WSJ reports, 2020 was the first year in decades that cigarette use among Americans increased, instead of declining.

  

  Even though the “vaping illness” has been largely attributed to an additive in illegal marijuana vaping products, sales of nicotine vaping products never rebounded from the paranoia it caused. A sense of pervasive skepticism lingers, as several of the WSJ’s sources pointed out. In the US, cigarette sales topped sales from five years’ ago when many consumers switched back to cigarettes after trying first-generation vaping devices.

  Before the pandemic, cigarette sales had been falling at an accelerating rate. Sales declined by 5.5% in 2019. But in 2020, the trend suddenly reversed, and sales were flat.

  The reasons for the spike in cigarette sales aren’t too difficult to deduce: Being stuck at home all the time gave people more opportunities to smoke, while the inability to go out and see and meet people essentially forced them to save money on gas, travel and entertainment, which they could then spend on cigarettes). The Virginia-based company posted EPS of $1.03 (or 99 cents per share on an adjusted basis). That’s a couple cents shy of what Wall Street had expected. Still, cigarettes outperformed many other consumer products, and sales in 2020 were even stronger than in 2015, when a drop in gas prices gave consumers more discretionary money to play around with.

  Despite the success in cigarette sales during the prior 12 months, Altria didn’t offer a projection for cigarette sales in 2021, saying Thursday that it would depend in part on the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine, an excuse that has been offered by pretty much every publicly-traded US company.

  E-cigarette sales were booming by the fall of 2019 as the popularity of the Juul vaporizer, which caught on among teens and got a whole new generation of Americans addicted to nicotine and tobacco, were blamed for reviving the practice, especially in the US. But many of those same users have apparently now made the switch to cigarettes.

  

  Recognizing this, ederal regulators under Dr. Scott Gottlieb, who ran the FDA before Dr. Stephen Hahn, moved to crush cigarette sales when they raised the federal age for legal tobacco purchases to 21, while pushing President Trump to bar flavored vapes and menthol cigarettes, though the president ultimately demurred.

  And if the COVID-19 vaccination process takes even longer than Dr. Anthony Fauci & Co. are saying, we imagine next year might be another big year for tobacco sales as well, especially as the Biden Administration roles out the stimulus checks and unemployment benefits.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 14:30

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• Conservatives Must Now Draw A Line In The Sand And Stop The "Great Reset"
  Conservatives Must Now Draw A Line In The Sand And Stop The “Great Reset”

  Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

  There are many millions of Americans today in the post-election environment that feel uneasy about the fate of the country given the rise of a Biden presidency. And though I understand why this tension exists, I want to offer a possible “silver lining”; a different way of looking at the situation:

  With Biden in the White House, there is no longer any ambiguity about what conservatives (and some of the more courageous moderates) need to do and need to accomplish. Now we know where we stand, and now the stakes are clear.

  

  With Trump in office, a lot of liberty minded people became a little too comfortable, to the point that they were inactive. They actually believed the system could be repaired and corruption ended from within, and without much effort on our part beyond our votes. Trump made many conservatives lazy.

  Then there was the Q-anon-sense floating around on the web which also misled some freedom activists into thinking that people much higher placed or “smarter” than us were fighting the good fight behind the scenes and that the globalists would be swept up in a grand 4D chess maneuver. This was a fantasy; it was never going to happen. Finally, everyone knows this and we can get on with the business of fighting the real battles ahead.

  I think we are reaching a stage in the conflict between freedom advocates and collectivist tyrants when many illusions are going to melt away, and all we will be left with is cold hard reality. Now is the time when we find out who is going to stand their ground and fight for what they believe in, and who is going to cower and submit just to save their own skin. Now is the time when we find out who has balls.

  The last four years plus the election of 2020 have revealed that political solutions are out the window. A lot of conservatives should have known better, but maybe it takes a perceived disaster to shock some people out of their waking dreams. Elections, voting, potential third parties; it’s all Kabuki theater. It’s all a facade to keep us docile and under control.

  The liberty movement cannot revolve around a single political figure. We cannot bottleneck out efforts into the hands of one man or one political party. The fight is up to us – each of us as individuals. It was ALWAYS up to us.

  A different form of organization needs to happen if Americans are going to protect our freedoms; a grassroots approach from the ground up rather than the top down. There will of course be people who stand out as teachers and pioneers, those that lead by example. But overall, the movement will not be acting on orders from on high. Rather, it will be acting according to self motivation. The liberty movement is not driven by personalities, but by shared principles which take on a life of their own.

  I’m not worried about Biden. In fact, his presence may be the best thing to happen to conservative unity in well over a decade. The only thing I worry about, as noted, is who is going to stand their ground, and who is going to give in?

  Biden may also be a wake up call for any moderate democrats out there who thought that by voting for a hair-sniffing corporate puppet they might put an end to the division and civil unrest in the nation. I think they will discover that Joe will attract even MORE civil unrest. He may even trigger more looting and rioting by Antifa and BLM during his administration than Trump did, by the simple fact these insane people will assume that Biden will be malleable and easier to exploit.

  Biden himself is not all that important; he is nothing more than a foil for bigger events and a proxy for more nefarious people. His presence signals that the “Great Reset” agenda is fully greenlit. This agenda has a pretty obvious set of goals, many of them openly admitted to by the World Economic Forum, and some of them strongly implied by the extreme political left and the media. They include:

  1) Perpetual pandemic lockdowns and economic controls until the population submits to medical tyranny.

  2) Medical passports and contact tracing as a part of everyday life.

  3) The censorship and de-platforming of all voices that oppose the agenda.

  4) Greatly reduced economic activity in the name of stopping “climate change”.

  5) Greatly increased poverty and the loss of private property.

  6) The introduction of “Universal Basic Income” in which the government becomes the all-powerful welfare provider and nursemaid for a generation of dependent and desperate people.

  7) A cashless society and digital currency system where privacy in trade is completely erased.

  8) creation of a “shared economy” in which no one will own anything and independent production is outlawed.

  9) The deletion of national borders and the end of sovereignty and self-determination.

  10) The centralization of global political power into the hands of a select few elitists.

  Now, you would think that most sensible people would be opposed to such a dystopian agenda. It would inevitably lead to mass death in economic terms, as well as war. Unless you are a psychopath that gets a vicarious thrill from the brutal oppression of millions of people, or you are a globalist that stands to gain immense power, there is nothing about the Reset that benefits you.

  That said, there will still be millions of useful idiots that support totalitarian policies, and they will act to enforce them. Some of them will be convinced that they are serving the “greater good”, and others will think that they can “earn a place at the table” if they lick the boots of tyrants long enough. Bottom line? It’s not just the globalists we need to worry about, it is also the contingent of zombies they have duped or bribed into serving the Reset.

  The information war is about to take a backseat and a new fight is about to begin. But how will it start?

  I believe the first test for conservatives will be Biden’s pandemic response. The Reset agenda and the pandemic are closely intertwined. Do not be misled by calls from Democrats to reopen the economy; there are strings attached.

  When New York Governor Andrew Cuomo stated that the state needed to reopen, or there would be “nothing left”, he also consistently hinted that vaccination numbers needed to improve. There are two big lies involved in this narrative – The first is that the vaccination rollout has failed on a technical level.

  They want us to believe that only around 60% of the first 2 million vaccine doses have been administered because the state and hospitals failed to get them to citizens fast enough. The truth is, as we’ve seen in numerous polls of Americans and medical staff, millions of people DO NOT WANT to take the vaccine. The situation in New York must be shocking to establishment elites; it’s one of the most leftists states in the US and yet they can’t seem to trick enough people into taking the shot.

  The same is true across the country, and it’s not because of bureaucratic failure, it is a propaganda failure.

  Second, Cuomo’s statements hint that though lockdowns are destroying the economy, vaccine saturation is paramount. The message is this – “Take the vaccine, or the economy will crash.” The pandemic response is a carrot and stick approach: The lockdowns are the stick, and the reopenings are the carrot.

  Of course, even if most people get vaccinated and submit to medical passports and contact tracing like good little slaves, this does not mean life will go back to normal. On the contrary, things will get much worse.

  As I have noted in past articles like ‘Waves Of Mutilation: Medical Tyranny And The Cashless Society’, the globalists have admitted that the covid mandates and controls are going to be in place for many years, perhaps forever. Elites at MIT and the Imperial College Of London have written extensively about a strategy I call “Wave Theory”, in which governments constantly batter the public with waves of lockdowns followed by brief windows of partial openings and limited freedom.

  The reopenings are a trick, a way to release public tension like a steam valve and make everyone think that the crisis is almost over. Then, the draconian mandates are brought back once again. This will never end. The only way to stop it is to remove the globalists from power and crush the Reset agenda.

  A new narrative is already being injected into the mainstream media hinting that even vaccinations will not lead to freedom.

  Anthony Fauci and others have argued that those who are vaccinated still need to follow lockdown mandates and wear masks. This policy completely ignores the scientific FACT that the death rate of covid is only 0.26% for anyone outside of a nursing home. It ignores the fact that masks have been consistently proven to do nothing to stop the spread of the virus. It ignores the fact that hospitals across the US have remained mostly empty, with only 15% of capacity in use during Covid . And, it ignores the fact that the vaccines are barely tested experimental cocktails that even the former VP of Pfizer has warned might cause dangerous autoimmune reactions and infertility.

  On top of this, more and more stories about “covid mutations” are hitting the news wire. They are supposedly more infectious and more deadly than the original (which runs contrary to the natural evolution of the vast majority of viruses), and the mutation in South Africa is also “possibly” unaffected by existing vaccines. There is no concrete proof to support any of the claims, but I think you see where all of this is headed, right?

  My guess is that in about two months the CDC and WHO will announce a new global outbreak of a more deadly strain of Covid. They will say the current vaccines are ineffective, and that lockdowns must continue. Hundreds of millions of people around the world are savvy to the old covid-19 scheme, so the elites are going to introduce covid-20, and covid-21, and covid-22, etc.

  Biden will call for Level 4 lockdowns similar to those implemented in Europe and Australia, and this is where conservatives must draw a line in the sand and announce that we are not subject to unconstitutional restrictions, that we are breaking free. This will be our first major test.

  It’s not enough to simply say “I won’t submit” when the consequences are minimal. One must be willing to fight back even when the consequences are dire. Being willing to lose everything for what you believe, being willing to possibly die for your values and principles means you are no longer a spectator in history, but an actor that can affect the future. Anything less is not enough to win the war that is coming.

  *  *  *

  If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 01/30/2021 – 00:00

• California's DMV Has Issued Permits For Baidu To Begin Testing Driverless Vehicles
  California’s DMV Has Issued Permits For Baidu To Begin Testing Driverless Vehicles

  While Tesla allows any old random driver to act as a human beta tester for its “full self driving” (whatever that even means anymore), the California Department of Motor Vehicles has officially issued an actual permit to Baidu USA to begin testing driverless vehicles on public roads in Sunnyvale, California. 

  The agency made the announcement in a press release issued on Wednesday, stating that “while Baidu has had state authority to test autonomous vehicles with safety drivers since 2016, the new permit allows the company to test three autonomous vehicles without a driver behind the wheel on specified streets within Sunnyvale, located in Santa Clara County.”

  According to the release, Baidu’s vehicles “are designed to operate on roads with posted speed limits not exceeding 45 miles per hour.” Testing is allowed to be done at all times during day and night, but won’t take place during “heavy fog or rain”.

  

  The release also notes what companies need in order to qualify for such driverless testing permits. 

  • Providing evidence of insurance or a bond equal to $5 million.
  • Verifying vehicles are capable of operating without a driver, meet federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards or have an exemption from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, and is a SAE Level 4 or 5 vehicle.
  • Confirming vehicles have been tested under controlled conditions that simulate the planned area of operation.
  • Notifying local governments of planned testing in the area.
  • Developing a Law Enforcement Interaction Plan that provides information to law enforcement and other first responders on how to interact with test vehicles.
  • Continuously monitoring the status of test vehicles.
  • Training remote operators on the technology being tested.

  “Driverless testing permit holders must also report to the DMV any collisions involving a driverless test vehicle within 10 days and submit an annual report of disengagements,” the release states. According to the DMV site, as of January 27, 2021, they have issued Autonomous Vehicle Driverless Testing Permits to just six entities. Noticeably, Tesla is absent from the list, which includes Autox Technologies, Baidu, Cruise, Nuro, Waymo and Zoox.

  The CA Department of Motor Vehicles developed its Autonomous Vehicle Tester Program in 2014 “to allow manufacturers to test autonomous vehicles with a human in the driver seat.” In 2018,  the agency established the Autonomous Vehicle Driverless Tester Program for manufacturers to test their technology without a driver.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 23:40

• Texas Governor Orders Agencies To Sue Biden Admin For Climate Actions That "Kill Jobs"
  Texas Governor Orders Agencies To Sue Biden Admin For Climate Actions That “Kill Jobs”

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

  Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott on Thursday vowed to oppose what he called the Biden administration’s bid to destroy jobs with its volley of actions targeting the oil and gas industry.

  

  Abbott signed an executive order during a press conference in Odessa on Thursday, which directed all state agencies to sue the Biden administration for any federal actions that threaten the Lone Star state’s energy sector.

  “Texas is going to protect the oil and gas industry from any type of hostile attack launched from Washington D.C.,” Abbott said.

  “President Biden’s embrace of the green new deal is a job killer in Texas. It also takes a wrecking ball to the energy independence that Texas has been able to provide to the United States of America and Texas is not going to stand idly by and watch the Biden administration kill jobs in Midland, in Odessa or any other place across the entire region,” he added.

  Abbott’s order (pdf) came on the heels of a series of executive actions taken by President Joe Biden in the name of fighting “climate change.” These include the decision to revoke authorization for the Keystone pipeline, the decision to rejoin the Paris Climate Accord, and a moratorium on issuing new oil and gas leases on federal land and waters.

  While Biden’s actions have drawn fire from Republicans, industry groups, and even some Democrats, Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry said at a Wednesday press briefing at the White House that Biden wants to make sure workers in the energy industry “have better choices” in jobs that “pay better” and are “cleaner,” giving the example of being a solar power technician instead of being a miner. Kerry also claimed that it’s a false notion that “dealing with climate” comes at the expense of energy workers, adding that there is “a lot of money to be made” in the creation of new “healthier” jobs in sectors such as green hydrogen, geothermal heat, and other renewables.

  

  Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington, on Jan. 27, 2021. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Thursday criticized the Biden administration’s actions on energy policy that he collectively dubbed a “piecemeal green new deal.”

  “There’s nothing green about a tsunami of pink slips for American workers, or carting Canadian crude around in trucks and trains instead of a pipeline,” McConnell said on the Senate floor. “This piecemeal green new deal is the wrong prescription: wrong for the environment, wrong for national security, and most of all for the working Americans who will soon be formerly working Americans if this keeps up.”

  “Wilfully throwing our own people out of work, reducing our domestic energy security, raising costs and prices for working families—all for no meaningful impact on global temperatures,” McConnell added.

  McConnell also cited a study (pdf) by energy consulting firm OnLocation, which concluded that Biden’s oil and gas lease ban would mean the loss of nearly 1 million jobs by 2022.

  “The decision on federal lands will leave us down nearly one million American jobs by next year alone,” McConnell said on the Senate floor. “It’s a heck of a way to kick off a presidency.”

  

  In this image from video, then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) speaks as the Senate reconvenes on Jan. 6, 2021. (Senate Television via AP)

  But Texas is “prepared to fight back,” Abbott said, with his executive order directing every state agency to, “use all lawful powers and tools to challenge any federal action that threatens the continued strength and vitality of the energy industry. Each state agency should work to identify potential litigation, notice and comment opportunities, and any other means of preventing federal overreach within the law.”

  Abbott also said he would support legislation that would prohibit cities from banning natural gas appliances, an action he said was recently taken in San Francisco.

  “In Texas, we will not let cities use political correctness to dictate what energy source you use,” he said.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 23:20

• Amid "Shortage", Ecuador Police Bust Clinic Giving 1000s Of Fake COVID Vaccines
  Amid “Shortage”, Ecuador Police Bust Clinic Giving 1000s Of Fake COVID Vaccines

  One of the most shocking consequences of the “shortage” of coronavirus vaccines has just been documented in Quito, Ecuador (the country’s capital) where a “fake” doctor has just been busted selling a fake COVID vaccine at an unlicensed clinic, according to local media reports cited by RT.

  The doctor was reportedly charging $15-per-dose before the clinic was raided and shut down by Quito police and other federal authorities. Officially, the business was a “spa and slimming massage salon”, but it offered unlicensed medical services on the backend. With the COVID-19 outbreak ravaging the country, the establishment, which was located in the southern part of Quito, decided to add a “vaccine” against the disease to its list of treatments and sold an estimated 70K doses before getting busted.

  News of the raid was published by the twitter feed of local police.

  

  Exactly what recipients were injected with has yet to be determined by lab tests.

  Patients were offered a three-dose course, with two of the injections supposedly giving full immunity. The first “dose” cost $15, while the follow-up chaser doses (which reportedly included cleansing drugs and multivitamins) cost another $100.

  Ecuador has approved two vaccines – Pfizer-BioNTech’s and AstraZeneca’s – for its national immunization against Covid-19, with two more products being considered. The government plans to roll out the effort in March, promising to vaccinate nine million adults for free by the end of the year.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 23:00

• Would You Be Considered A Domestic Terrorist Under This New Bill?
  Would You Be Considered A Domestic Terrorist Under This New Bill?

  Authored by Robert Wheeler via The Organic Prepper blog,

  After 9/11, the entire country collectively lost its mind in the throes of fear. During that time, all civil and Constitutional rights were shredded and replaced with the pages of The USA PATRIOT Act.

  Almost 20 years later, the U.S. has again lost its collective mind, this time in fear of a “virus” and it’s “super mutations” and a “riot” at the capitol. A lot of people called this and to the surprise of very few, much like after 9/11, Americans are watching what remains of their civil liberties be replaced with a new bill.

  

  The Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act of 2021

  The DTPA is essentially the criminalization of speech, expression, and thought. It takes cancel culture a step further and all but outlaws unpopular opinions. This act will empower intelligence, law enforcement, and even military wings of the American ruling class to crack down on individuals adhering to certain belief systems and ideologies.

  According to MI Congressman Fred Upton: 

  “The attack on the U.S. Capitol earlier this month was the latest example of domestic terrorism, but the threat of domestic terrorism remains very real. We cannot turn a blind eye to it,” Upton said. “The Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act will equip our law enforcement leaders with the tools needed to help keep our homes, families, and communities across the country safe.

  Congressman Upton’s website gives the following information on DTPA:

  The Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act of 2021 would strengthen the federal government’s efforts to prevent, report on, respond to, and investigate acts of domestic terrorism by authorizing offices dedicated to combating this threat; requiring these offices to regularly assess this threat; and providing training and resources to assist state, local, and tribal law enforcement in addressing it.

  DTPA would authorize three offices, one each within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Department of Justice (DOJ), and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), to monitor, investigate, and prosecute cases of domestic terrorism. The bill also requires these offices to provide Congress with joint, biannual reports assessing the state of domestic terrorism threats, with a specific focus on white supremacists. Based on the data collected, DTPA requires these offices to focus their resources on the most significant threats.

  DTPA also codifies the Domestic Terrorism Executive Committee, which would coordinate with United States Attorneys and other public safety officials to promote information sharing and ensure an effective, responsive, and organized joint effort to combat domestic terrorism. The legislation requires DOJ, FBI, and DHS to provide training and resources to assist state, local, and tribal law enforcement agencies in understanding, detecting, deterring, and investigating acts of domestic terrorism and white supremacy. Finally, DTPA directs DHS, DOJ, FBI, and the Department of Defense to establish an interagency task force to combat white supremacist infiltration of the uniformed services and federal law enforcement.

  Those who read the bill aren’t so gung ho to shred the Constitution

  Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard has some serious reservations. In a recent interview on Fox News Primetime, Gabbard stated that the bill effectively criminalizes half of the country. (Emphasis ours)

  “It’s so dangerous as you guys have been talking about, this is an issue that all Democrats, Republicans, independents, Libertarians should be extremely concerned about, especially because we don’t have to guess about where this goes or how this ends,” Gabbard said.

  She continued: “When you have people like former CIA Director John Brennan openly talking about how he’s spoken with or heard from appointees and nominees in the Biden administration who are already starting to look across our country for these types of movements similar to the insurgencies they’ve seen overseas, that in his words, he says make up this unholy alliance of religious extremists, racists, bigots, he lists a few others and at the end, even libertarians.”

  Gabbard, stating her concern about how the government will define what qualities they are searching for in potential threats to the country, went on to ask:

  “What characteristics are we looking for as we are building this profile of a potential extremist, what are we talking about? Religious extremists, are we talking about Christians, evangelical Christians, what is a religious extremist? Is it somebody who is pro-life? Where do you take this”

  Tulsi said the bill would create a dangerous undermining of our civil liberties and freedoms in our Constitution. She also stated the DPTA essentially targets nearly half of the United States. 

  “You start looking at obviously, have to be a white person, obviously likely male, libertarians, anyone who loves freedom, liberty, maybe has an American flag outside their house, or people who, you know, attended a Trump rally,” Gabbard said.

  Tulsi Gabbard is not the only one to criticize the legislation

  Even the ACLU, one of the weakest organizations on civil liberties in the United States, has spoken out. While the ACLU was only concerned with how the bill would affect minorities or “brown people,” the organization stated that the legislation, while set forth under the guise of countering white supremacy, would eventually be used against non-white people.

  The ACLU’s statement is true.

  As with similar bills submitted under the guise of “protecting” Americans against outside threats, this bill will inevitably expand further. The stated goals of the DPTA are far-reaching and frightening enough. It would amount to an official declaration of the end to Free Speech.

  Soon there will be no rights left for Americans

  In the last twenty years, Americans have lost their 4th Amendment rights, and now they are losing their 1st. All that remains is the 2nd Amendment, and both the ruling class and increasing numbers of the American people know it.

  Dark days are ahead.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 22:40

• Antifa Attacks Portland ICE Building, Hurls Mortars And Rocks At Feds 
  Antifa Attacks Portland ICE Building, Hurls Mortars And Rocks At Feds 

  A large group of Antifa terrorists rioted at the ICE building in South Portland this week. 

  Mainstream media went radio silent on the attack when “60 Antifa terrorists burned American flags and threw projectiles and mortar explosives at federal police officers,” according to Federal Inquirer. 

  Despite fleeing the US because of Antifa death threats, Conservative journalist Andy Ngo posted a series of videos Thursday showing the clash between Antifa terrorists and federal police. 

  

  Portland Police Bureau told local news KATU that “the group began blocking traffic by moving construction cones and barriers into the street just before 10:00 p.m.” Wednesday night. Thirty minutes later, police said the group lit a dumpster on fire, and that was when federal officers exited the ICE building and began to repel protesters. 

  At the #antifa riot at the Portland ICE facility overnight, they set a dumpster on fire & attempted to push it into the building. Federal officers came out to stop them. Antifa threw a mortar explosive at police. #PortlandRiots pic.twitter.com/KVMpAJ3LJ1

  — Andy Ngô (@MrAndyNgo) January 28, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It took a little over two hours for the Feds to disperse the crowd. They said crowd control munitions were used, and one person was taken into custody. 

  Federal officers rushed out to make a targeted arrest of an #antifa at the riot outside the Portland @ICEgov facility last night. Karl Anders Nilsson, 20, was arrested & charged w/felony rioting & more. He was quickly released without bail. #PortlandRiots pic.twitter.com/yReHDao6C7

  — Andy Ngô (@MrAndyNgo) January 28, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Ngo posted a picture of the Antifa terrorist who was arrested. 

  

  Meanwhile, the Biden administration calls for “unity” and continues to label Trump supporters “domestic terrorists” while ignoring Antifa attacks on federal agents, law enforcement personnel, private and government property. 

  In response to the latest rioting in Portland, Mayor of Sandy, Oregon Stan Pulliam, a Republican, told Fox News that the chaos in Portland is what happens when there’s a push to defund police.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 22:20

• Former Navy SEAL: The Miseducation Of Antony Blinken
  Former Navy SEAL: The Miseducation Of Antony Blinken

  Authored by Kenny MacDonald via The Libertarian Institute, 

  On January 19th, the US Senate held confirmation hearings for Joe Biden’s Secretary of State nominee Antony Blinken. Blinken has a reputation on both sides of the aisle for being exceptionally qualified for the job of America’s top diplomat, which is surprising considering he was on the wrong side of every major foreign policy blunder of the last 20 years; Iraq, Libya, and Syria.

  When Senator Rand Paul asked Antony Blinken what lessons he has learned from his disastrous foreign policy record in Libya and Syria, Blinken replied that after “some hard thinking” he’s proud that he has done “everything we possibly can to make sure that diplomacy is the first answer, not the last answer, and that war and conflict is our last resort.”

  Of course war is the last resort. Even the most hawkish war criminals would agree that war is the last resort. But the question is, war is the last resort to accomplish what? If war is the last resort to get a country to fully capitulate to Washington’s demands then eventually the US will be at war with everyone. To Blinken, war as the last resort can only be understood in the same way a mugger considers shooting his victim as a last resort to stealing their wallet.

  

  Blinken displayed his hubris a few minutes later when he said, “The door should remain open” for Georgia to join NATO under the justification of curbing Russian aggression.

  Rand Paul informed Blinken, “This would be adding Georgia, that’s occupied [by Russia], to NATO. Under Article 5, then we would go to war.”

  Senator Paul is right. According to Washington, Russia has been occupying 20 percent of Georgia since 2008. Under the principle of collective defense in Article 5 of NATO, the US would be obligated to treat Russia’s occupation of the country of Georgia the same way the US would treat a Russian occupation of the US state of Georgia. That sounds like a recipe for war. But don’t worry, peaceniks, Antony Blinken has assured us that war is the last resort!

  Blinken’s framing of the issue exposes his disingenuous approach. Russian aggression is a term used by Washington insiders to describe a Russian reaction to western aggression. Blinken knows that the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia was not Russian aggression, he calls it that because it suits his agenda and the American press is dependably ignorant enough to not ask questions.

  In the 2008 war, Georgia was the aggressor against the South Ossetians, a people who are ethnically distinct from Georgians, and who have never—not even for one day—considered themselves a part of Georgia. The Ossetians have a history of Russian partiality; they were among the first ethnic groups in the region to join the Russian Empire in the 19th century and the USSR in the 1920s. Today, ethnic Ossetians straddle both sides of the current Russian border, and they are more aligned with the Russian government than with the Georgian government.

  When Georgia gained sovereignty from the former Soviet Union in 1991, South Ossetia declared its independence. In response, Georgian forces invaded South Ossetia, initiating an armed conflict that killed more than 2,000 people. In 1992, a ceasefire agreement was signed in Sochi between Georgia, Russia and South Ossetia, which created a tripartite peacekeeping force led by Russia. Although the international community never acknowledged South Ossetia’s independence, they have enjoyed political autonomy since the 1992 Sochi agreement.

  The Sochi agreement held up until Georgia’s ultra-nationalist President Mikheil Saakashvili came to power in the 2003 western-backed bloodless “Rose Revolution” coup-d’etat. The pro-western President Saakashvili advocated joining the EU and NATO, and insisted on asserting Georgian rule over South Ossetia. U.S. President George Bush supported the new Georgian president’s effort to bring Georgia into NATO, which for Russia would mean bringing a hostile military up to its border. In 2006, President Saakashvili offered South Ossetia autonomy in exchange for a political settlement with Georgia. A referendum was held, and the South Ossetian people overwhelmingly reaffirmed their desire for independence from Georgia.

  In August, 2008, After exchanging artillery fire with South Ossetia, Georgia invaded South Ossetia’s capital city of Tskhinvali, killing 1,400 civilians and 18 Russian peacekeepers. Georgia’s attack triggered a Russian invasion into South Ossetia and Abkhazia (another breakaway region) to restore stability and protect peacekeeping forces.

  Important video where @RandPaul questions Biden’s proposed Secretary of State Antony Blinken about his endless, repeated support for regime change wars — in Iraq, Libya, Syria — and how Blinken never learns from his “mistakes”. From @richimedhurst: https://t.co/OGTIkhP2Sw

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) January 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Russia is by no means innocent—they used disproportionate force attacking targets inside Georgia—but only a Russophobic shill would conclude that this war was somehow caused by Russian aggression. The idea that Russia had no business intervening is laughable. Under the 1992 Sochi agreement, Russia took charge of a peacekeeping coalition to help prevent exactly the scenario that happened in the summer of 2008.

  If George Bush had succeeded in bringing Georgia into NATO, the United States may have been dragged into war with Russia in 2008. Antony Blinken claims that NATO membership deters Russian aggression, but does he really believe that Russia would have been deterred from intervening to protect its own peacekeeping force? Does Blinken believe that Georgia—backed by the U.S. military—would have acted more cautiously in South Ossetia, or is it more likely they would have been bolder?

  It’s undeniable that it is in Russia’s best interest to have pro-Russian countries on its borders. But pretending as if Russia is going to march into Tbilisi and reabsorb the entire country of Georgia into Russia is a level of paranoia that should disqualify anyone from having an opinion on the subject. The military conflict in Georgia is about the two breakaway regions and their right to self determination. Russia’s self interest happens to align with the wishes of the people in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. By supporting Georgia, America—the champion of democracy and self determination—has adopted the position that South Ossetians didn’t really mean to repeatedly choose independence when given the option. This is a situation where America’s professed values are diametrically opposed to its policy of countering Russian influence everywhere on the map.

  Antony Blinken should pause to consider if America’s policy objectives are worth fighting a war for. Is it worth confronting Russia in South Ossetia? Was it worth confronting Russia over Crimea and the Donbas in Ukraine? Is it a good idea to withdraw from the INF Nuclear Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty? Should we have spent the last 30 years marching NATO—a military alliance hostile to Russia—right up to the doorsteps of Russia? Is any of this really making us safer?

  Blinken has bought into his own propaganda. To Blinken, regardless of the stubborn details of history, every conflict on Russia’s border is simply Russian aggression. Washington’s solution is the expansion of NATO, which Russia describes as “NATO encirclement.” This is an unacceptable military threat to Russia, who has a deep distrust of western intentions due to a long history of western invasions into Russia. Antony Blinken still lives in a bipolar world in which the United States and Russia are existential threats to each other’s existence. Every conflict and every alliance is only viewed through the lens of the New Cold War crusade against Russia. This maniacal crusade could thrust America in the unthinkable abyss of nuclear war.

  Rand Paul got his answer, Antony Blinken learned nothing from all his mistakes! The danger isn’t merely resorting to war too early, the danger is in sticking our noses in conflicts that we have no business being in. War should be the last resort to defending America’s people and it’s homeland from foreign invasion; it should not be the last resort to enforcing America’s utopian vision on the world, and it certainly shouldn’t be the last resort to prevent an ethnic group in the South Caucasus—that almost no American has ever heard of—from the right to self-determination.

  Kenny MacDonald is a former Navy SEAL and Afghanistan War veteran. He is currently pursuing a bachelor’s degree in history. Youtube Channel. Medium. Facebook.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 22:00

• Manhattan Retail Rents Plunge In "Prime" Shopping Areas 
  Manhattan Retail Rents Plunge In “Prime” Shopping Areas 

  Manhattan’s “prime” retail real estate remained under pressure in the fourth quarter as the once too prominent shopping areas have transformed into “ghost towns.”

  According to Bloomberg, retail rents across every major shopping district in the borough are plunging as a revitalization of the local economy continues to stall. 

  Mayor DeBlasio’s solution to mitigate the virus spread has been restricting or banning indoor capacity at restaurants and limit mass gathering. More government regulation has hindered the local recovery. 

  As if brick and mortar retail didn’t have enough problems to deal with considering the massive push towards e-commerce during the pandemic, Soho retail rents in the fourth quarter dropped 22% to $290 a square foot over the same period last year, according to a report by brokerage Cushman & Wakefield Plc.

  Rents in Soho have been sliding for four years. They may eventually pressure commercial real estate firms who own buildings as higher vacancies and lower rents could reduce rental income, making it harder for them to service mortgages. 

  Lower Fifth Avenue retail rents in the quarter dropped 20%. Rents in upscale Madison Avenue declined 16%.

  

  Considering the pandemic, strict social distancing measures from the city government, and the explosion in e-commerce, it is nearly impossible for most to open retail stores and do business in once prominent areas of downtown Manhattan.

  Cushman & Wakefield said the supply of retail space in most areas is surging. Availability rates in Fifth Avenue, Soho, and Meatpacking are about 24%. 

  From 57th to 72nd streets, Madison Avenue had a shocking 40% availability rate for the second straight quarter. 

  Herald Square/West 34th Street was the only area in the borough that experienced a decline in available retail space. 

  With the retail bubble now popped, there were more than 9,300 retail department store closures across the US in 2020. 

  The retail space remains oversupplied with stores, and the consolidation of stores countrywide could continue for the next couple of years. 

  To sum up, the new normal in Manhattan will be high retail vacancies and lower rents with a local economy unable to recovery this year. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 21:40

• The Democratization / Demonization Of Speculation
  The Democratization / Demonization Of Speculation

  Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

  How do you unrig a speculative rigged market? You don’t. It simply crashes into a putrid sinkhole.

  Gamed speculation–using knowledge of how markets can be pushed to profit those doing the pushing–has long been decried. Declaring that the unproductive profiteering of greedy speculators will be the death of the Republic goes back to Rome, and in American history, to Alexander Hamilton’s battle in 1791 to pay the speculators who had bought up the new nation’s war bonds for pennies on the dollar full value plus interest.

  Gamed speculation–and the cheery presumption that there will always be a liquid market of chumps willing to buy insiders’ pumped-up balloons–inflate and pop bubbles, with devastating consequences not just for the broken speculators but for conventional investors who naively believed “the market” was in fact a market (smirk) rather than a mechanism to enrich those who have the capital and knowledge to engineer profiteering behind the curtain. (Please see the still from The Wizard of Oz below.)

  An interesting intersection of dynamics has led to the curtain being ripped aside by the democratized speculations of WallStreetBets, a crowdsourced pool of speculative capital which shares many characteristics with online gaming and live-action role playing (LARP) only the gains and losses are in real dollars (the fortunes made and lost in GameStop (GME) are very real indeed).

  Wall Street and the politicos who profiteer as insiders are naturally horrified by both developments:

  1. That the curtain of how super-wealthy insiders and their only the wealthy can play entities such as hedge funds have manipulated markets behind the curtain for decades, leading to an unprecedented economic inequality in which the top 10% skim fully 97% of all income from capital. To have their game hijacked by a bunch of young gamers is beyond appalling to the New Nobility, who firmly believe their insider manipulations were the exclusive preserve of their crowd in the castle.

  (Recall that ours is a thoroughly Neofeudal Economy, with a New Nobility of financiers, Big Tech monopolists, et al. who own the vast majority of capital and political power, and a restive mass of commoners holding either no capital or phantom capital that will dissipate into thin air in the next financial upheaval.

  2. Not only are the mechanisms of manipulation now visible to all, an unruly rabble of commoners has ganged together to play their own version of the speculative game of skimming staggering profits from a rigged “market.” How dare they!

  No wonder the skimmers and scammers and political refuse that passes for “leadership” in today’s America are shocked, shocked by the open and openly gleeful democratized speculation that (like cryptocurrencies) is enriching the wrong people, i.e. commoners. It’s as if the debt-serfs, tax donkeys and decapitalized peasants stormed the castle at night and broke open the jewel box and the stash of champagne, and proceeded to swing from the chandeliers, mocking the self-serving privileged who’d been pillaging the nation for decades via their legalized looting.

  Mark, Jesse and I discuss these developments in our latest Salon podcast:

  AxisOfEasy Salon #36: Democratizing Stonk Market Manipulation (1:03 hrs)

  Where do these developments lead? An interesting question. Unfortunately for Wall Street insiders and their political-scum apologists, we can’t unsee the levers behind the curtain. The insiders can’t put their legalized looting genie back in the bottle, for everyone has seen how “markets” are manipulated to enrich those pulling the levers.

  If the political-scum apologists want to end democratized speculation, they’re going to face blowback when they try to protect the rights of the New Nobility to continue manipulating markets to their exclusive advantage. The rage against the New Nobility’s lock on capital, rigged markets and 97% of all the income generated by capital has been simmering to a boil, and political-scum apologists had best tread carefully.

  How do you unrig a rigged speculative market? You don’t. It simply crashes into a putrid sinkhole. Phantom capital vanishes into the thin air from whence it came. Ponder the similarities of the Cisco Systems speculative frenzy in 2000 and Tesla’s speculative frenzy in 2020.

  

  

  Dang, the levers of the machinery behind the curtain just broke.

  

  *  *  *

  If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

  My recent books:

  A Hacker’s Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook $17.46) Read the first section for free (PDF).

  Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World (Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).

  Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($5 (Kindle), $10 (print), ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).

  The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

  Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).

   

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 21:20

• Global Government 'Trust Bubble' Bursts In 2020, Led By China & UK
  Global Government ‘Trust Bubble’ Bursts In 2020, Led By China & UK

  Joe Biden has moved into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and one of his administration’s most difficult tasks is going to be the restoration of trust in the American government. Even though the foundations of U.S. democracy withstood the events of January 06, cracks are still in place, as shown by continuing suspicion and accusations on Capitol Hill. Along with distrust inside government, Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes that the nation is divided with a recent survey finding that a mere 42 percent of the U.S. public trusted the government in late 2020.

  The findings come from Edelman Research’s latest Trust Barometer which polled 33,000 people in 28 countries about their trust in various institutions between October 19 and November 18, 2020. Globally, ‘trust’ collapsed in the second half of 2020…

  

  However, despite the turbulence of 2020, a year where hundreds of thousands of Americans died from Covid-19, the research found that trust in U.S. government actually grew three percent.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Still, the U.S. figure is far lower than many other countries with trust in government in Australia and Canada standing at 61 percent and 59 percent, respectively. It is also slightly lower than the UK where the government’s Brexit strategy has proven highly controversial with public approval of the institution 45 percent in late 2020.

  Some of the highest levels of trust in government were seen in Asia where 82 percent of Chinese respondents trusted the institution, along with 79 percent of people polled in India. Japan was among the lowest at 37 percent while the figure was lower still in Spain and Russia at just 34 percent.

  South Korea, UK, and China saw the biggest collapses in trust of government in 2020…

  

  Ironically, “business” is now the only institution that is seen as both ‘competent’ and ‘ethical’, with government seen as neither…

  

  The stakes are high for 2021 and improvement will likely hinge on how the pandemic plays out, particularly when it comes to the efficiency of vaccination programs and getting economies back on track without compromising public safety.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 21:00

• Texas University Tells Students To Wear Masks During Masturbation
  Texas University Tells Students To Wear Masks During Masturbation

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  A Texas University suggested in a series of tweets that students should wear face masks during masturbation, even quipping that they should ‘mask-urbate’.

  

  The University of North Texas’s Student Health and Wellness Center fired out the tweets, which have since been deleted because they offered advice contrary to that of the school’s guidelines on coronavirus, according to Campus Reform.

  One of the tweets declared “Mask-urbate?! Read below to learn more,” with an accompanying image suggesting that any students with COVID symptoms should “skip sex and stay in.”

  An infographic emblazoned with the university logo read “Mask-urbate! Use face coverings during mutual masturbation to reduce your risk,” while also suggesting students “be creative with physical barriers & sexual positions to prevent close face-to-face contact.” 

  UNT gives ‘mask-urbate’ guidelines for sex during COVID
  via @abbyystreetman for @campusreform https://t.co/FExoT1zAug

  — Celine D. Ryan (@celinedryan) January 28, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  A further tweet declared that students should wear masks during sex, “pick a large, well-ventilated space” for getting it on, “avoid kissing” and “wash your hands before and after.”

  The tweets were reportedly removed because the University doesn’t even want students to go near each other.

  “Face coverings are not a substitute for appropriate social distancing,” the school guidelines state.

  As we previously reported, The University of Georgia published a similar guide on its health website that advised students to consider “wearing a face mask during sex.”

  

  This madness isn’t just being touted around universities, with the BBC in the UK advising the public to wear masks if they want to have sex with each other.

  “Your best sexual partner during the Covid-19 pandemic is yourself,” the article further notes, encouraging people to engage in “masturbation, sex toys or having phone or online sex,” rather than the real thing.

  Several US universities have threatened to completely cut off basic services, including internet access for students if they do not fully comply with all COVID restrictions on campus.

  As we have previously reported, colleges are being used as testing grounds for technology to enforce draconian distancing, mask and lockdown measures:

  Universities are also threatening to suspend students who dare to leave pre-determined ‘bubble’ areas around campuses, or visit non “approved businesses” without permission.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 20:40

• "People Are Starting To Scramble": 2020's Newbie Traders Face A Lesson In Capital Gains Taxes
  “People Are Starting To Scramble”: 2020’s Newbie Traders Face A Lesson In Capital Gains Taxes

  It was all fun and games for Robinhood traders during 2020 – the gains seemed to be unlimited after the market crash in March, anyone could trade stock options, FinTwit was abuzz. Many new traders cut their teeth and learned how to trade for the first time in 2020.

  But now, as tax day 2021 rolls around, newbie traders are learning another lesson: how capital gains taxes work, and why “what you make” isn’t always “what you make”. 

  And the due diligence traders are interested in doing on paying taxes seems to be far less than the due diligence many are doing by reading r/WallStreetBets. One 19 year old trader, who made $5,000 last year, told Bloomberg: “I read up on it and everything that I saw didn’t lead me to believe that I had to pay, however I was at the grocery store or something so I didn’t dive into it as much as I needed to.”

  Retail traders now account for 20% of all stock volume in the U.S., according to Bloomberg. Many of those traders simply don’t yet understand the tax implications of trading.

  20 year old trader Mac Coughlin said: “That’s a whole other process that I need to learn. Quite honestly I have no idea about any of it. I took a small loss over the whole course of the year so in terms of filing and tax returns I do not really understand the process.”

  

  Ryan Marshall, a financial planner and partner at ELA Financial Group, said: “The biggest misconception most investors have is that they won’t be taxed as long as they don’t withdraw the money.”

  Most traders are learning for the first time that short-term capital gains are taxed at higher rates than long-term capital gains, which take affect after a year and a day. As Bloomberg points out, married couples who earn up to $80,000 pay nothing on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends. Most other middle class income groups pay 15% and the top rate is 23.8% for long term gains. 

  Matthew Savello, a certified public accountant, said: “Now that it’s actually coming time to file, people are starting to scramble a little bit. One of the key things is you have to budget it. Probably most of the people I talked with actually have losses, there’s not many who can actually pull this off successfully. And for the ones who do, budgeting has become quite an issue.”

  Jordan Kendall, a partner at Marcum LLP, said: “It’s to your benefit to pay it off as quickly as you can. Many taxpayers don’t realize that if you’re delinquent in tax filings and you owe the government money, they could withhold your passport and stop you from traveling internationally. They could make your life difficult.”

  For reference, here is a look at what 2020 short term capital gains taxes look like:

  

  And 2020 long term capital gains taxes:

  

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 20:20

• Lawmaker Urges NY AG, DOJ To Subpoena Cuomo's Office Over Handling Of Pandemic
  Lawmaker Urges NY AG, DOJ To Subpoena Cuomo’s Office Over Handling Of Pandemic

  Authored by Janita Kan via The Epoch Times,

  Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is demanding answers after a new report revealed New York state health officials underreported COVID-19-related nursing home deaths by as much as 50 percent in some places.

  

  The New York House member characterized the revelations as “a massive corruption and coverup scandal at the highest level of New York State Government.” She blamed the Governor, the Secretary to the Governor, the New York State Health Commissioner, and the Governor’s staff for the worrisome findings, which also revealed that some nursing homes did not comply with infection control protocols and had placed residents at increased risk of harm.

  “Every New Yorker deserves transparency, accountability, and answers regarding the orchestration of this illegal coverup,” Stefanik said in a statement.

  Stefanik is now urging New York Attorney General Letitia James and the Justice Department to issue subpoenas to the administration of New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, for documentation and communications related to his handling of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus pandemic.

  The 76-page report (pdf) was released on Jan. 28 following an investigation into nursing homes’ responses during the pandemic over allegations of patient neglect and other conduct. Preliminary data from the investigation suggests that many nursing home residents had died from COVID-19, the disease caused by the CCP Virus, in the hospital after they were transferred from their nursing homes.

  These cases were not reflected in the state’s Department of Health’s (DOH) published total nursing home death data. The attorney general office compared data from 62 nursing homes, which represents 10 percent of the total facilities in New York, reported to its office, to data reported to DOH.

  The investigation also found that some nursing homes underreported their resident deaths occurring in nursing homes to DOH.

  “The OAG found that nursing home resident deaths appear to be undercounted by DOH by approximately 50 percent,” the attorney general’s office release stated.

  The COVID-related nursing home deaths have been a focal point for Cuomo’s handling of the pandemic. He has repeatedly pushed back against assertions that his policy played any role in the deaths. The report is expected to trigger more scrutiny over Cuomo’s policies and handling of nursing homes amid new cases of the virus across the state and country.

  “While we cannot bring back the individuals we lost to this crisis, this report seeks to offer transparency that the public deserves and to spur increased action to protect our most vulnerable residents,” James said in a statement on Thursday.

  Many critics have pointed to Cuomo’s decision to order recovering nursing home patients to be returned to the facilities to free up hospital bed space for the increased number of nursing home deaths. Cuomo—who has touted his administration’s response to the pandemic—has often rejected the suggestions that his policy led to an increase in deaths.

  His office did not respond to an earlier request for comment by The Epoch Times about the report.

  Earlier this month, Cuomo and the state were accused of “illegally hiding basic information about a public health crisis,” by not disclosing the total of coronavirus deaths in New York nursing homes for another two months, until March 22.

  The DOH had postponed Empire Center’s August request for information under the Freedom of Information Law three times. This prompted a lawsuit, with the organization arguing the department had “no valid reason for withholding the requested data.”

  The department had told the organization that it could not immediately turn over the documents because “a diligent search for responsive documents is still being conducted.”

  According to state data as of this week, approximately 70 percent of New York state’s roughly 35,000 deaths from the CCP virus were among people aged 70 or older.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 20:00

• Biden's Defense Secretary Puts The Brakes On Trump's Germany Troop Draw Down
  Biden’s Defense Secretary Puts The Brakes On Trump’s Germany Troop Draw Down

  Perhaps as expected, it didn’t take long for the Biden administration to begin putting the brakes on Trump’s previously ordered troop draw downs which occurred in the last two months of his presidency, particularly in Germany, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

  The defense analysis and news site Military.com is reporting that new defense secretary under the Biden administration Lloyd Austin is reviewing the withdrawal of 12,000 US troops from Germany:

  Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has voiced his commitment to shoring up close ties with NATO ally Germany that were strained under the Trump administration, and suggested that the plan to withdraw 12,000 U.S. troops from the country is open to discussion.

  

  The prior Trump plan for to cut nearly one-third of total American military personnel from the country was predictably fought from Congressional corners known for being hawkish on Russia, with even some American and European security officials having called the move a “gift to Putin”.

  Later in December the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act attempted to override the draw down order, and according to German officials early this year there’s yet to be significant movement of troops from the country.

  Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin this week held phone calls with NATO allied officials in Europe. The Military.com report continues:

  In a phone call to his German counterpart, Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Austin “expressed his gratitude to Germany for continuing to serve as a great host for U.S. forces, and expressed his desire for a continued dialogue on U.S. force posture in Germany,” according to a Pentagon readout of the call released Wednesday.

  He also sought “to reinforce the value the United States places on the bilateral defense relationship with one of our closest NATO Allies,” the readout from Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby states.

  By all appearances the some 36,000 total American troops in Germany have gone nowhere despite the plan initiated under Esper. 

  Recent polling of the German public also suggests half or more want to see US troops gone, after being there since World War II.

  Two things appear true:

  1. A good chunk of Germans are in favor of U.S. troop draw-down.
  2. They keep electing parties that don’t want the U.S. troop draw-down.

  — Casey Michel 🇰🇿 (@cjcmichel) August 4, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As the report concludes of Defense Secretary Austin’s phone call, it is “the latest sign of the Biden administration’s intent to reverse or water down the policies of former President Donald Trump, who repeatedly questioned NATO’s worth to the U.S. and rattled allies with demands for more defense spending.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 19:40

• Why Mitch McConnell Backed Away From Trying To Convict Trump
  Why Mitch McConnell Backed Away From Trying To Convict Trump

  Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

  Mitch McConnell really wanted to convict Donald Trump and ban him from ever running for office again, but he was forced to back off.  In fact, he just voted for a motion that declared that convicting Trump at this point would be unconstitutional.  That represents a stunning reversal by McConnell, because earlier this month he was telling other Republicans that he wanted Trump gone.  Putting the pieces together, it appears that McConnell really did try to get to 67 votes so that Trump would be convicted, but political reality forced him to back down in a major way.  Now a weakened McConnell will try to move forward as the minority leader in the Senate, and the future of his political career is very much in doubt.

  

  Once the riot at the U.S. Capitol happened on January 6th, McConnell decided that he was done with Trump and never wanted to speak to him again…

  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said he never wants to speak to President Donald Trump again following a violent insurrection at the US Capitol on Wednesday, The Washington Post reported.

  But of course at that point they had already not spoken for quite some time.

  According to McConnell, the last time the two spoke was all the way back on December 15th…

  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Tuesday that he hasn’t spoken to former President Trump since the middle of December, confirming news reports that the Senate GOP leader has cut off personal contact with the former president.

  “The last time I spoke with him was the day after I declared that Biden had obviously won the election after the Electoral College [voted on] Dec. 14. It would have been Dec. 15,” McConnell told reporters.

  Not content to keep his feud with Trump private, McConnell took it to the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives.

  When McConnell delivered a speech in which he directly blamed the chaos at the Capitol on Trump, it made headlines all over the nation…

  “The mob was fed lies,” McConnell told the chamber, which two weeks earlier had been evacuated as rioters invaded the building.

  “They were provoked by the president and other powerful people.”

  Once it became clear that the House was going to impeach Trump, rumors were running rampant that McConnell was going to back a move to convict Trump in the Senate.

  For example, the following comes from a New York Times article entitled “McConnell Privately Backs Impeachment as House Moves to Charge Trump”…

  Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, has told associates that he believes President Trump committed impeachable offenses and that he is pleased that Democrats are moving to impeach him, believing that it will make it easier to purge him from the party, according to people familiar with his thinking.

  And CNN reported that a Republican member of Congress actually told them that “Mitch said to me he wants Trump gone”…

  The lobbying started in the House after the January 6 attack on the Capitol and in the days leading up to impeachment. But it’s now more focused on Sen. Mitch McConnell, the powerful minority leader who has signaled he may support convicting Trump.

  “Mitch said to me he wants Trump gone,” one Republican member of Congress told CNN. “It is in his political interest to have him gone. It is in the GOP interest to have him gone. The question is, do we get there?”

  So why did Mitch McConnell change his mind so dramatically?

  There are three main reasons.

  First of all, it became clear that there wouldn’t be a way to get to 67 votes.  As I warned yesterday, that would probably be enough to force McConnell and his allies to back down.

  Voting to convict Trump without succeeding would be political suicide for McConnell and his allies and they know it.

  Secondly, Trump was threatening to start his own political party if he was convicted.

  The “Patriot Party” would have split the votes of conservatives in every state, and it would have made it absolutely impossible for Republicans to take back control of the House or the Senate in 2022.

  In fact, splitting conservatives between the Republican Party and the Patriot Party would have ensured one party rule in Washington for the foreseeable future.

  As much as McConnell would like to get rid of Trump permanently, regaining the majority in the Senate is much more important to him.

  Thirdly, other Republicans in the Senate were threatening to boot McConnell from his position as minority leader if he voted to convict Trump…

  “No, no, no,” Sen. Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican and Trump ally, told CNN when asked if he could support McConnell if he voted to convict Trump, calling such a vote a “dangerous precedent” and adding: “I don’t even think we should be having a trial.”

  “If you’re wanting to erase Donald Trump from the party, you’re going to get erased,” Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said on Fox News Wednesday. “This idea of moving forward without Donald Trump in the Republican Party is a disaster for the Republican Party.”

  McConnell is a political survivor, and he could see the writing on the wall.

  So he backed off.

  But if he could figure out a way to get rid of Trump without any consequences, he would pull the trigger in a nanosecond.

  Unfortunately for McConnell, now that everyone knows what he tried to do, he has been greatly weakened politically.

  He may survive for a while, but the days remaining in his political career are definitely numbered.

  If the Republicans are not able to regain control of the Senate in 2022, I have a feeling that Senate Republicans may decide that it is time for a new standard bearer.

  Of course a lot could still happen between now and then, and my regular readers already know that I am not optimistic about America’s future at all.

  The rot and decay in Washington is simply a reflection of the rot and decay that is growing throughout our society as a whole.

  Our country is literally falling apart all around us, and decades of incredibly foolish decisions by our leaders are now catching up with us in a major way.

  *  *  *

  Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 19:20

• Bolsonaro Warns COVID May Last Forever, Isolation "Leads Nowhere" 
  Bolsonaro Warns COVID May Last Forever, Isolation “Leads Nowhere” 

  President Jair Bolsonaro warned this week that COVID-19 is going nowhere and urged local leaders to abandon strict social distancing measures and lockdowns, arguing that Brazil’s people need to start learning how to live with the virus, according to Bloomberg. 

  “This issue of Covid will continue for life,” Bolsonaro said during a weekly webcast on social media, adding that social distancing measures will “lead nowhere.”

  Bolsonaro, 65, has already been infected with the virus and has held a pretty tough stance against social distancing. 

  

  When it comes to vaccines, the Brazilian president, a longtime China skeptic, thanked Beijing earlier this week for approving Sinovac Biotech’s COVID-19 vaccine for export. Bolsonaro said he would not take any COVID-19 shot. 

  Critics have said Bolsonaro’s laissez-faire approach to managing the crisis has resulted in a massive death toll, second to the US. Hospitals are overrun with virus patients, which has pressured the president’s popularity in recent months. 

  A slow rollout has also pressured Bolsonaro’s popularity, with the country only receiving two million doses of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines. 

  Meanwhile, Brazil’s massive fiscal stimulus to support the economy from cratering even further has reached its limits, hence why Bolsonaro is calling for some sense of normalcy. At the same time, people learn to live with the virus. 

  At this point, who knows how long the virus will be sticking around, but in Bolsonaro’s defense, there’s mounting evidence that continues to how mandatory stay-at-home orders issued by the government don’t work. 

  However, maybe Bolsonaro is right by telling his fellow compatriots to go out there and live their lives. After all, a total implosion of the. Brazilian economy wouldn’t exactly be great for the people’s health. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 19:00

• Governor Cuomo's Pitiful Tax Hike Ultimatum Will Punish New York
  Governor Cuomo’s Pitiful Tax Hike Ultimatum Will Punish New York

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

  New York’s Governor says bail him out or he’ll be forced to punish New Yorkers with tax hikes.

  

  Biden Elected, Begging Starts

  It did not take long for the begging to start. 

  New York Governor Andrew Cuomo launched the effort with a Tax Hike Ultimatum. 

  “If the federal government doesn’t fund state and local governments, it’s going to hurt all New Yorkers,” Mr. Cuomo warned Tuesday while proposing to raise the state’s top income tax rate in New York City to 14.7%. This would be the highest rate in the country, at least until New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy makes a competing bid.

  Mr. Cuomo’s ultimatum goes like this: Democrats in Washington must deliver $15 billion in budget relief pronto or he will raise the state’s top tax rate to 10.82% from 8.82% on income over $100 million and create four new tax brackets on income of more than $5 million. New York City has a top rate of 3.88%, though Mayor Bill de Blasio wants to raise it too.

  The Governor says the higher rates would be temporary, but New Yorkers know better than to believe him after he broke his promise to let the millionaire’s tax that Albany imposed during the 2009 recession expire. Mr. Cuomo is also begging Democrats in Congress to lift the $10,000 state-and-local tax (SALT) deduction limit to mitigate his tax hike.

  Add these tax increases to Medicare taxes, and some New Yorkers would pay a marginal tax rate as high as 64% under Mr. Cuomo’s plan. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis may need to set up temporary asylum camps in Palm Beach for the waves of New York tax refugees.

  Pitiful, Just Pitiful

  Gratefully, I expect Cuomo’s pitiful plea to go straight to the ash pile of requests not delivered where it belongs.

  Why?

  There is not a single Republican senator who will vote to bail out New York, New, Jersey, Illinois or other corrupt states with union pension woes of their own making.

  In Search of a Senator

  Given the 50-50 Senate split, it only takes one Democrat to stand up to such fiscally mad proposals.

  The most likely candidate is West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. 

  Politico notes Manchin emphatic he ‘will not vote’ to kill the filibuster

  Also note that Manchin is in a Bipartisan group of senators pushes back on Biden Covid plan.

  The bipartisan group of 16 senators held a call with Brian Deese, director of the White House National Economic Council, Jeff Zients, Biden’s coronavirus coordinator, and Louisa Terrell, head of White House legislative affairs on Sunday afternoon — the first of what’s sure to be many conversations between centrists and the Biden administration.

  The 75-minute call, set up by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), is one of the first big calls the Biden administration has held as it works to build cross-party support for the $1.9 trillion plan. Senators asked for more data on how the White House filled out its plan.

  Susan Collins (R-Maine) pressed the Biden officials on why families making $300,000 would be eligible and urged a focus on lower-income workers.

  Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) also questioned the price tag: “This isn’t monopoly money,” as he put it.

  Manchin is a Democrat senator in the most trump-friendly state. His statements suggest that he will not stray too far fiscally. 

  King caucuses with the Democrats and if either one of them says “no” to state bailouts, they won’t happen.

  There might be others. In general, Biden will have a difficult time.  

  Go Ahead Cuomo, Go Ahead

  So, governor Cuomo go ahead. Raise those taxes. 

  I am curious to see how big the New York exodus will be.  And I always need some new things to write about.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 18:40

• Google Deletes Nearly 100,000 One-Star Robinhood Reviews Amid GME Scandal
  Google Deletes Nearly 100,000 One-Star Robinhood Reviews Amid GME Scandal

  Google has been actively removing a flood of negative reviews for the Robinhood app from the Google Play Store, according to The Verge, which reports that “Robinhood users organized campaigns to give the app a one-star review on Google’s Play Store and Apple’s App Store,” and were able to ‘review-bomb’ it down to a one-star rating over the company’s decision to restrict purchases of GameStop, AMC and other stocks amid a crowdsourced campaign to trigger short squeezes.

  

  Robinhood’s restrictions were widely seen as a handout to billionaire short-sellers that threw retail traders under the bus.

  Robinhood came under intense scrutiny on Thursday, after the stock trading app announced it would block purchases of GameStop, AMC, and other stocks made popular by the r/WallStreetBets subreddit, and some users have already replaced their deleted one-star reviews with new ones to make their anger heard. –The Verge

  The website 9TO5Google captured the carnage when the app had just under 275,000:

  

  And here’s what it looks like now, per The Verge:

  

  According to the report, the mass censorship is within Google’s ‘purview,’ as their policies “explicitly prohibit reviews intended to manipulate an app’s rating.”

  How do they know this is an organized campaign and not 100,000 individually pissed off retail customers? Google claims to have a system which “combines human intelligence with machine learning to detect and enforce policy violations in ratings and reviews.”

  Google says it specifically took action on reviews that it felt confident violated those policies, the company tells The Verge. Google says companies do not have the ability to delete reviews themselves.

  On Apple’s App Store, Robinhood has a 4.7 rating, and we didn’t see any reviews newer than Wednesday. However, popular apps like TikTok, Uno, and Genshin Impact also didn’t have reviews from any later than Wednesday when we checked. –The Verge

  Meanwhile, Robinhood is only allowing “limited buys” of various stocks, while at least one lawsuit has been filed against the company for “removing Gamestop from its trading platform” earlier this week.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 18:20

• Is The Establishment Still Terrified Of Trump?
  Is The Establishment Still Terrified Of Trump?

  Authored by Pat Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

  As soon as the Senate received the lone article of impeachment accusing President Donald Trump of “incitement of insurrection” in the Jan. 6 mob assault on the Capitol, Rand Paul rose to object.

  The Senate, he said, has no right to try a private citizen, which Trump now is. Thus, what we are about to do is flatly unconstitutional.

  Forty-five of 50 Republican members agreed with Paul’s motion.

  “This vote indicates it’s over. The trial is all over,” said Paul.

  “If you voted that (the Senate trial is) … unconstitutional, how in the world would you ever vote to convict somebody for this?”

  Consistency says you would not.

  Susan Collins of Maine, one of five Republicans who voted against Paul’s motion, agreed that the vote portends the final vote on conviction.

  “Do the math,” Collins said. “It’s extraordinarily unlikely the president will be convicted.”

  Rand Paul may have just derailed the second impeachment of Donald Trump.

  Chief Justice John Roberts, the constitutional officer designated to preside over Senate impeachment trials, has said he will not preside over this latest trial of the ex-president. With Roberts seeing no constitutional duty, and declining the honor, his replacement as the presiding officer will be Patrick Leahy of Vermont, the longest-serving Democrat and the president pro tempore of the Senate.

  But Leahy is viscerally hostile to Trump and one of a Democratic bloc that voted twice last January to convict Trump of high crimes and misdemeanors. How will it look to the world if this partisan is installed as both judge and juror at the trial of his political enemy?

  

  Welcome to Zimbabwe.

  Does the liberal establishment, now back in power and controlling the House, Senate and presidency, not see how this is all going to look in the history books, generations hence?

  Blinded by hatred of Trump, enraged by the mob that stormed the Capitol, Nancy Pelosi’s House, in a rush to judgment, without hearing a single Trump witness and without letting his lawyer offer a defense, impeached, i.e., indicted, Donald Trump for “incitement of insurrection.”

  But how could Trump have incited the riot and the attack on the Capitol when the mob swept up the stairs before Trump finished speaking a mile away?

  And he would end his rally remarks by urging the crowd to march to the Hill “peacefully and patriotically.”

  We have subsequently learned that plans and plots were being hatched days before the assault on the Capitol began.

  Was the Trump White House, or Trump, privy to those plots?

  In August 1974, it was a near certainty that the House would vote to impeach Richard Nixon. But after the president resigned, the House did not impeach, and Ford pardoned Nixon so the country could move on.

  The rage of the establishment at being deprived of its revenge against Nixon who had turned the Silent Majority against it, not unlike today, knew no bounds. And, though history has vindicated Ford, his pardon of Nixon precipitated a plunge in his poll numbers.

  Half a century on, however, history says Ford did the right thing.

  Why then are the Democrats continuing with this exercise in vengeance?

  They want Trump convicted so that he will be prohibited from ever again holding public office. The establishment fears that Trump could make a comeback, win the Republican primaries in 2024, become the nominee, and return in triumph as president.

  They are determined to abort that possibility. Many openly admit it.

  What does that say about the liberal establishment’s love of democracy when they would disqualify, in advance, the largest vote-getter their opposition party ever had, out of fear he might come back to win the presidency as he did in 2016?

  “Trust the people!” was a campaign slogan made famous by George Wallace. Our national establishment prattles endlessly on about its devotion to democracy, but it does not trust the people.

  But the establishment is going to pay a price for trying to squeeze the last ounces of juice out of this rotting fruit. President Joe Biden’s call to unity are being drowned out by Democratic howls for a trial, conviction and banishment.

  This effort to convict and disqualify Trump from running again tells us more about the people behind it than it does about Trump.

  For the odds are slim at best that Trump would or could, at 78, win the nomination and the presidency a second time, as Grover Cleveland did in 1892.

  Yet, a fearful establishment does not want to take the chance.

  For all the babbling about “democracy” we have heard in recent days, the establishment wants to eliminate the possibility that the people could rise up, and, horror of horrors, elect Trump once more.

  You can smell the fear.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 18:00

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• Putin: World Risks "Fight Of All Against All" In "Grim Dystopia" Amid Growing Crises
  Putin: World Risks “Fight Of All Against All” In “Grim Dystopia” Amid Growing Crises

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

  Russian leader Vladimir Putin warned that society risks a return to world war if there’s no international effort to ease existing global tensions and imbalances.

  Speaking at the World Economic Forum’s virtual Davos Agenda conference on Jan. 27, he offered a grim prediction and noted that the current era shows parallels to the 1920s and 1930s before the “catastrophic World War II.”

  “Nowadays, such a heated conflict is not possible, I hope,” Putin said. “Because it will mean the end of our civilization.”

  “But I’d like the reiterate that the situation might develop unpredictably and uncontrollably if we sit on our hands doing nothing to avoid it. There’s a possibility that we might experience an actual collapse in global development that might result in a fight of all against all.”

  Such a prospect, he said, would result in a “grim dystopia.”

  Wealth inequality, political polarization, and international tensions will exacerbate the problem, he said, and on top of that, the CCP virus pandemic is placing even more strain on society.

  “The coronavirus pandemic has become a major challenge to mankind, and it has accelerated structural changes, the preconditions for which were already in place,” he said.

  “We have every reason to believe that the tensions might be aggravated even further.

  “International institutions are weakening, regional conflicts are multiplying, the global security system is degrading.”

  He called for an increase in dialogue between different nations and groups to avoid a possible worldwide conflict.

  “We need [to] ensure development following a different path—one that is positive, balanced, and constructive,” he said.

  Russia currently finds itself amid growing internal tensions after Moscow arrested Putin critic Alexei Navalny after he returned to Russia from Germany.

  During the Davos address, Putin seemingly made reference to sanctions and embargoes; several countries have placed sanctions on Russia.

  “The use of trade barriers, illegitimate sanctions, restrictions in the financial, technological and information spheres—such a game without rules is dramatically increasing the risks of the unilateral use of military force, which is very dangerous,” Putin said.

  Putin also faces an uncertain relationship with U.S. President Joe Biden, whom he spoke with earlier this week.

  After their first phone call, Putin formally submitted a bill for the Russian parliament to extend the New START nuclear treaty with the United States by five years, according to Russian media.

  “The presidents expressed satisfaction following today’s exchange of diplomatic notes on an agreement to extend the New START Treaty,” Putin’s office announced after his call with Biden, TASS reported.

  “International topics included the United States’ unilateral withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty, problems of keeping in place the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iranian nuclear program, Ukrainian settlement, as well as Russia’s initiative to call a summit of the United Nations Security Council permanent members,” the Kremlin said.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 02:00

• Newspeak In The 21st Century: How To Become A Model Citizen In The New Era Of Domestic Warfare
  Newspeak In The 21st Century: How To Become A Model Citizen In The New Era Of Domestic Warfare

  Authored by Cynthia Chung via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  War will continue under the Old Cold War doctrine. War will always be present, and yet will never be seen by the majority of our citizens…

  

  With President Biden’s inauguration many feel that they can finally breathe a deep sigh of relief. At last sanity has been restored and we can all go back to our predictable lives knowing that the future can only get better during these next four years.

  Well…not quite.

  There still remains the problem that everybody may not be on board with the progressive changes that Biden’s Administration plans to push through. This, of course, is wholly unacceptable.

  Disagreement has become an extremely sensitive issue lately; it was once thought that debate was an essential component to a strong and healthy democracy, however, we are now told that it is extremely dangerous, in fact, it may soon be categorised as a form of domestic terrorism.

  As early as mid-Nov 2020, Biden was already discussing the need to pass further laws against domestic terrorism. This is interesting since under the 2001 Patriot Act (which was meant to be a temporary enforcement in reaction to 9/11, however, is still in place 19 years later), domestic terrorism is already defined as;

  “activities that (A) involve acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the U.S. or of any state; (B) appear to be intended (i) to intimidate or coerce a civilian population; (ii) to influence the policy of government by intimidation or coercion; or (iii) to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping; and (C) occur primarily within the territorial jurisdiction of the U.S.”

  So, the question begs, what else needs to be added to the Patriot Act, which was recognised at the time of its enforcement as something that should only be temporary since it was understood that it infringed upon civil liberties? Come to think of it, why is the Patriot Act still in place, which allows for the indefinite continuation of human rights violations such as warrantless wiretapping; illegal torture, kidnapping, and detention; mass surveillance; government secrecy; Real ID; no-fly list; political spying; abuse of material witness statutes; and attacks on academic freedom?

  As Glenn Greenwald wrote in his formidable paper The New Domestic War on Terror is Coming, “what needs to be criminalized that is not already a crime?”, keeping in mind that as of June 2020, the United States has the highest prisoner rate in the world, followed by El Salvador, Turkmenistan, Thailand and Palau.

  Well, the answer is apparently simple and as always for our own good. We have come to a point in time where the enemy is not some radicalized ideology, it is not some foreign despot, it is not even the threat of war (whether it be economic, cyber or nuclear), but rather it is ourselves. We, the people, are the new enemies of the State.

  You may protest “Not I! I am a model citizen! I pay my taxes on time, I am never late or call in sick for work, I make sure to be up-to-date with the newest ‘woke’ revelations and I don’t engage with anything outside of the mainstream matrix during my free-time.” People such as yourself think, that when the Biden Administration is calling for tougher laws against domestic terrorism, that it is obviously meant for the ‘other guy,’ those uneducated bigots who are screaming at the top of their lungs “Treason!” and inciting what we are told to be forms of ‘insurrection,’ all in the name of the archaic ideas of ‘patriotism’ and the ‘U.S. Constitution.’

  You, unlike so many others, have no problem recognising that the U.S. Constitution is actually part of the problem, that by the standards used today, the U.S. Constitution is itself responsible for ‘inciting violence’ and thus guilty of domestic terrorism, and thus needs to be revoked.

  But you see… that’s just not good enough.

  Though you are well on your way to becoming a model citizen in the 21st century, you still have a little ways to go. It is for this reason that a guide to 21st century Newspeak has been recently released to make sure that well-intentioned citizens like yourself are fully informed of what is required of you in terms of appropriate behaviour, as well as appropriate thoughts, and though this will take a little more time, appropriate instincts.

  21st Century Newspeak

  The first alteration that will need to take place is freedom of thought. It has been shown through peer-review studies that individual thoughts are susceptible to forming erroneous beliefs and can lead to dangerous behaviours such as refusal to integrate into a community standard.

  Once an individual refuses to integrate into its designated community, it is only a matter of time before this individual shows opposition and even antagonism towards said community. Thus failure to integrate is one of the first signs that an individual is on the path to becoming a domestic terrorist.

  Because the individual mind is flawed, it can no longer be trusted to be the standard of its own judgement of what is right and wrong. It is for this reason that we are introducing groupthink. This concept is not new, however, the difference is from now on the individual’s environment will only be allowed to reciprocate the values of groupthink, and all other thoughts outside of groupthink are to be banned and punishable under the new laws.

  Even if thoughts outside of groupthink appear as harmless to the collective, they are not, for any thought that is not groupthink threatens to lead to a different outcome than that intended by groupthink and thus is a threat to the security of the collective.

  In order to ensure commitment to groupthink, it will be mandatory that every individual engage in at least 2 minutes of Hate every hour throughout the day, every day. This can be achieved either by watching 2 minutes of Hate news, or by engaging in a public 2 minutes of Hate with a colleague, a friend or family member via social media.

  It is imperative that an individual watch the 15 minute morning and evening “What to Hate” news provided by the Ministry of Truth (or Minitrue), in order to be the most up-to-date with what are the ongoing and new subjects of Hate, and what were previous subjects of Hate which are no longer deemed to be subjects of Hate.

  It is most important that an individual never refer to a former subject of Hate as such. Any present subject of Hate must be seen as having always been a subject of Hate and any former subject of Hate must be seen as having never been a subject of Hate.

  This may appear as an impossible task, but we assure you it is entirely possible with the use of doublethink, which many of you have already been practising. Doublethink requires that one be both conscious and unconscious of the fact that they are telling deliberate lies while genuinely believing them; to deny the existence of objective reality and all the while to take account of the reality which one denies. This makes up a part of our new Party slogan: FREEDOM IS SLAVERY.

  Those who excel the most in doublethink will receive the highest stations within our newly organised community, as safe-guards against the renegade, the domestic terrorist.

  Another alteration that will need to occur is how we think and refer to the past and the future. With the newly enforced groupthink, the present is what groupthink dictates it to be, which is subject to change, however, must be regarded as having always been.

  The past is what the present dictates it to be, if it were not, it could challenge the basis for the present. Thus to preserve the present, the past must serve the present, only justifying why we Hate what we presently Hate and why we Love what we presently Love and can do nothing to contradict these Party lines. There will be permitted no records of an alternative past, there will be no way to prove that the past was ever different from what the present dictates it to be, the only threat to this narrative is the record of the individual mind, and once this ceases to be there will only be the Minitrue record as the recorder of past Truth.

  In effect, the model citizen will perceive the past as dead and the future as unimaginable. The future is unimaginable because it is impossible to think of an alternative to the present, in fact, the mere act of thinking of an alternative to the present is considered a challenge to the status quo of the present, and thus is a challenge to groupthink, and thus is a form of domestic terrorism, which we will call from now on thoughtcrime.

  Thoughtcrime is essentially any thought pertaining to memory, judgement of right and wrong, thoughts of an alternative reality, and self-reflection, which are now all deemed forms of thoughtcrime. If an individual is to engage in any of these sorts of thoughts, it is only a matter of time before they will come into conflict with groupthink and the Party line, thus private thoughts are banned and punished under the new laws.

  It may seem an impossible task at first not to engage in private thoughts, but again, we assure you it is entirely possible using crimestop. Crimestop is the practice of not grasping analogies, failing to perceive logical errors, misunderstanding the simplest arguments, of being bored or repelled by any train of thought which is capable of leading in a heretical direction. Crimestop is essentially, protective stupidity.

  It is imperative that one practice crimestop during any interaction with another individual, however, it is also imperative that one practice crimestop within their own inner-dialogue, such that even from your own conscience you will be protected from committing a thoughtcrime.

  Newspeak will also help dissuade from thoughtcrime. Newspeak is to be the new acceptable vocabulary, anything that references words outside of the most-up-to-date edition of the Newspeak dictionary will be considered Oldspeak and something to be construed as counter to groupthink. It is understood that by reducing the vocabulary to revolve around a few words such as good; which for example can be used as plusgood, doubleplusgood, ungood etc, it will serve to narrow the range of thought an individual is capable of, and thus reduce the capability of committing a thoughtcrime. How wonderful! That in the future we will be unable to commit crime for we will be incapable of its thought! This makes up another part of our new Party slogan: IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH.

  In terms of the new laws, in effect, nothing will change. Unacceptable behaviours and thoughts will not be designated as illegal per se; one reason for this is because we do not plan on having any public trials. Anyone who is in violation of conduct will simply be removed either temporarily into a “re-education facility” or will be vaporised. Any subject that has been vaporised will be removed from the collective memory records and can never be referred to as having ever existed.

  The reason why no public trials will be held from now on is because, as we have seen, dissent is infectious. Thus, holding public trials risk further encouragement towards dissent. It is for this reason that dissenters must be removed swiftly and quietly in the middle of the night. Such disappearances will occur relatively regularly and will eventually become the new normal, however, it will not be traumatic for the collective. The subject will simply cease to exist as if it were all just a dream, the structure of our daily routine unaffected.

  In order to ensure utmost compliance, the collective will be employing the use of children spies, this has already been occurring abroad, and proves to be very effective.

  Purges and vaporizations will be a necessary part of the government mechanics and will become the new normal. We have already discussed the necessity for vaporizations, as for the necessity of purges, it is because the community will be built so as to remain in stasis, however, this can only be accomplished through artificial means, for it is not natural that a thing remain the same but rather that it either improves or deteriorates.

  However, in order for the Party to maintain absolute control, there can be no change to the present except for that chosen by the Party, thus any change is a challenge to the Party. In order to facilitate an artificial environment of no change, resources must artificially be kept low, and purges need to occur so that this environment of scarcity is tightly controlled and maintained.

  In order for us to achieve this, our economy will have to go through stagnation, we will need to decrease the amount of land used for cultivation, we will no longer add capital equipment needed for industrial growth and great blocks of the population will be prevented from working and will be kept half alive by State charity. The wheels of industry cannot be allowed to turn so as to increase the real wealth of the world. Goods must be produced, but they must not be distributed, and in practice the only way of achieving this is by continuous warfare.

  War will continue under the Old Cold War doctrine. War will always be present, and yet will never be seen by the majority of our citizens, the reason for this being that war will not be about a real threat to security nor about real conquests but rather will be about maintaining the present status quo by exhausting the surplus of consumable goods, while also helping to preserve the special mental atmosphere that a hierarchical society needs.

  However, real war will be purely an internal affair, the war waged by the ruling group against its own subjects, with the object of the war as to keep the structure of society intact and unchanging.

  A peace that is truly permanent under this new ideology is no different than an invisible permanent war. For peace in our new era will equate to stability through no change. This makes up our first Party slogan: WAR IS PEACE.

  Conclusion

  All of these means are necessary if we are to realise that the only secure basis for oligarchy is collectivism, and that oligarchy is the only means to achieving peace, freedom and strength for the collective.

  However, we are still very far from this ideal and there is much that threatens its becoming, namely, the masses, or what we call the proles. So long as the masses believe that they are entitled to freedom of thought, our endeavours cannot succeed.

  The individual must voluntarily relinquish this. It cannot be taken from them no matter the degree of control and no matter the threat of physical harm. An individual’s mind is theirs and cannot be taken, instead, the individual must be led to believe that it is in their best interest to relinquish their mind.

  Let us do our best then to convince the individual that they are no longer fit to use their mind and let us pray that we are successful, for if we fail, our entire system of control fails with it.

  “You would not make the act of submission which is the price of sanity…Reality exists only in the human mind, nowhere else. Not in the individual mind, which can make mistakes, and in any case soon perishes: only in the mind of the Party, which is collective and immortal. Whatever the Party holds to be truth, is truth. It is impossible to see reality except by looking through the eyes of the Party.”

  – O’Brien in George Orwell’s “1984”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 01/29/2021 – 00:10

• Beijing Uses Anal Swabs To Detect COVID-19 Strains
  Beijing Uses Anal Swabs To Detect COVID-19 Strains

  Just as the WHO acknowledges (in time for the start of the Biden Administration) that the high-cycle PCR tests routinely lead to far higher numbers of false positives than the world had expected, Li Tongzeng, a doctor at Beijing’s You’an Hospital, and a proponent of anal swab tests, claims that “the coronavirus survives longer in the anus or excrement than those taken from upper body tracts.”

  And with this, Li is suggesting that the method is becoming more common than he had initially expected. Anal swabs are being deployed in Beijing quarantine as well as in some school settings, according to recent reports out of Beijing’s Daxing district.

  Authorities in the Chinese capital have started testing about 2MM people in the center of the city after two cases of a strain of the coronavirus were first detected in Britain were reported in Beijing.

  

  The rapid mass testing campaign started on Friday, a day before the city’s legislature was expected to convene an annual meeting and with just weeks to go until the country’s political heavyweights arrive in the capital for the year’s most important political gatherings.

  “All districts and work units must make epidemic prevention and control their top priority and spare no efforts in epidemic prevention and handling,” municipal government spokesman Tian Wei said on Friday afternoon, citing orders from the city’s COVID-19 task force.

  The mass testing was conducted after the capital went into partial lockdown in Daxing and Shunyi, with genetic sequencing revealing two cases of the more transmissible coronavirus variant discovered last month in Britain.

  The capital has since been on high alert. More than 1.2K people have been tested at a school attended by one pupil with an asymptomatic case of the COVId-19 Each of the contacts at the school had nasal, saliva and anal swabs as well as serum tests – all of which were negative.

  The jury is still out on whether anal swabs, which reportedly take about 10 seconds, are more useful than a regular throat swab to test for coronavirus.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 23:50

• Blinken Says Iran Must Comply With Nuclear Deal Before The US Does
  Blinken Says Iran Must Comply With Nuclear Deal Before The US Does

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  In a sign that the US is a long way from lifting sanctions on Iran, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US will not return to the nuclear deal until Iran comes back into compliance.

  “President Biden has been very clear in saying that if Iran comes back into full compliance with its obligations under the JCPOA, the United States would do the same thing,” Blinken said at a press conference on Wednesday.

  

  “But we are a long ways from that point. Iran is out of compliance on a number of fronts. And it would take some time … for it to come back into compliance in time for us then to assess whether it was meeting its obligations,” he said.

  Blinken’s comments come after Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said the US must take the first step. Writing in Foreign Affairs last week, Zarif called on President Biden to unconditionally lift sanctions if he is serious about restoring the JCPOA.

  Zarif’s argument is that since the US was the first to violate the deal by re-imposing sanctions on Iran in 2018, it’s on Washington to revive the JCPOA. Iran gradually began violating the deal in 2019, after waiting a year for the other signatories to offset US sanctions.

  Reality check for @SecBlinken:
  The US
  -violated JCPOA
  -blocked food/medicine to Iranians
  -punished adherence to UNSCR 2231
  Throughout that sordid mess, Iran
  -abided by JCPOA
  -only took foreseen remedial measures
  Now, who should take 1st step?
  Never forget Trump’s maximum failure.

  — Javad Zarif (@JZarif) January 28, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Zarif, and other Iranian officials, have made it clear these violations are easily reversible and that they would quickly comply with the agreement if the US gives Iran sanctions relief.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 23:30

• A Mystery Guest Just Booked All 446 Rooms At An Iconic Canadian Lodge For 65 Days
  A Mystery Guest Just Booked All 446 Rooms At An Iconic Canadian Lodge For 65 Days

  The entirety of the well known Fairmont hotel at Jasper Park lodge in Alberta has been booked for 65 days beginning February 23. The estate is a collection of log cabins and other buildings that is spread over 700 acres. It is well known for attracting high profile guests. 

  A mystery guest has booked all 446 rooms at the lodge, who has been mum about who the mystery guest is, and what the purpose of the stay could be. 

  “The dates are blacked out on Fairmont’s reservation website and a call to the front desk concierge confirmed that no rooms will be made available,” CBC News reported. “Citing the four-star hotel’s dedication to discretion, officials with the hotel aren’t divulging any details, including how the unusual booking might affect staffing levels or how many reservations were cancelled to accommodate it.”

  Additionally, guests who previously had reservations booked for that period of time have been told their reservations are cancelled. 

  

  A statement from the hotel read: “We have a private booking during the below dates however, as we must always safeguard the privacy of our guests, we do not share details about hotel reservations, meetings, or private events.”

  Some are speculating that the hotel is going to be used to film a Television show. The booking even prompted questions to the province’s Chief Medical Officer about potential Covid precautions at the hotel. She responded:

  “As we look to any decisions that we make, No. 1 is whether or not there’s any risk to the public, whether any of the activities could potentially cause spread or cause a public risk,” she said.

  “And then, No. 2, as we consider any potential requests for exemptions, we also consider the broader public interest and what might be in that broader public interest. And again that’s part of these considerations as we look to this film industry framework that we’re working on.”

  As we have noted, the wealth of billionaires has skyrocketed more than $1 trillion during the Covid pandemic, thanks to Central Banks printing trillions of new dollars. To be honest, we’re not surprised by the “mysterious” booking and wouldn’t be surprised if we see more gluttony, a la Lifestyles of the Rich And Famous, in the year ahead. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 23:10

• DogeCoin Up 800%; WallStreetBets, Elon Musk Involved
  DogeCoin Up 800%; WallStreetBets, Elon Musk Involved

  Many years ago, in December 2013, when bitcoin was still in its very early adoption phase and few had any illusions that it would ever hit $1000 let alone $40,000, two software engineers – Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer – introduced a cryptocurrency that was meant to be a payment system that was “instant, fun, and free from traditional banking fees” but was in reality a joke, and a meme spoof on the concept of bitcoin. In other words, it was a joke, even within the otherwise austere and serious crypto community. It was called DogeCoin, and was represented by a Shiba Inu dog as its logo, literally taken from the “Doge” meme.

  

  We bring it up, because moments ago, Dogecoin surpassed Litecoin in market cap, hitting $8.5 billion after rising 800% today, and hitting an all-time high of $0.082 before settling down to $0.0667, on volume that overtook both bitcoin and ethereum on binance, with some $3.4 billion dogecoins traded.

  

  So what the hell is going on here, and why is this particular crypto soaring when the rest  of the crypto space is quiet?

  Is Melvin Capital/Citadel short dogecoin and have the 5.5 million bloodhounds of Wallstreetbets been unleashed yet again?

  While it is unclear what sparked the furious buying spree, according to CoinDesk, WSB is indeed involved, and the move was “likely caused by attention from public Reddit trading collective Wall Street Bets combined with a TikTok post about the “dogecoin army” by niche celebrity Carole Baskin from Netflix’s “Tiger King.”

  Separately, around 5:47pm ET, Elon Musk tweeted a picture of whippet, which some believe was a to DOGE’s surge, but others note may have unleashed the heaviest part of the buying…

  pic.twitter.com/a6kmk0PEgM

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 28, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … with some reacting to Musk’s tweet “there’s the $DOGE tweet we’ve been waiting for… In typical @elonmusk fashion.”

  Whatever the reason, this is the clearest indication yet of the absolute dash for trash momentum observed across capital markets since the Fed’s take over, with “investors” now openly mocking the asset allocation process and dumping their cash into an “asset” which even its creators admit is worthless.

  While DOGE appears to have peaked and is now sliding, expect much more insanity tomorrow and the coming days as this ridiculous bubble is now prompting laughable (literally) assets to generate returns the stock market could only dream of.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 22:57

• Democrats Introduce Senate Bill To Make D.C. The 51st State
  Democrats Introduce Senate Bill To Make D.C. The 51st State

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) and other Democratic senators are introducing a bill for D.C. statehood today, a proposal with heavy opposition in the public in continuing polls. 

  Indeed, the bill was one of the reasons that members and advocates demanded the killing of the filibuster rule to force through the change in status based on a bare majority.

  If successful, it would give the Democrats two more senators in a city-state that will expected to remain reliably blue.  I have testified repeatedly on this issue.  There are strong arguments for changing the status of the District and statehood is a viable option.

  It would clearly be constitutional unlike past proposals. The question is whether it is the best option for the country.  Roughly 20 years ago, I proposed a “modified retrocession plan” that would be an alternative if the Congress wanted full voting rights for citizens of the District.

  

  The proposal would make create the first city-state in our history with a population of 700,000.

  However, half of the country opposes the idea.

  A new Harris/Hill poll shows fifty-two percent of respondents said they favored statehood while 48 percent said they opposed it.  That is heavy opposition for such a statehood change.

  Biden just unveiled another proposal with heavy public opposition: a commission that would allow court-packing or other structural changes on the Court to blunt the conservative majority.

  I have written a long academic publication on the status of the District of Columbia and testified at the prior hearings on allowing for voting representation of District residents. See Jonathan Turley, Too Clever By Half: The Partial Representation of the District of Columbia in the House of Representatives, 76 George Washington University Law Review 305-374 (2008).   I also testified in both the House and Senate repeatedly on such proposals.

  The debate over D.C. statehood is a complex issue with historical, constitutional, and legal dimensions.  It is also an issue with important and unresolved racial issues of a black-majority city without direct representation in Congress.  I have previously voiced my view that such lack of representation for the District is unacceptable and untenable in our country.

  In all, I have testified five times in the House and the Senate on this issue in Congress, particularly on the effort to simply give the District a vote in the House of Representatives.  I encouraged the Congress to avoid such flagrantly unconstitutional measures of a vote as a non-state entity and instead focus on a vote of statehood or retrocession.  That is why I offered a “modified retrocession plan”, which was also discussed in an academic work. Under my proposal, the mall and core federal buildings would remain the District of Columbia (as is the case in this legislation) but the remainder of the District would retrocede back to Maryland (as did the other half of the original District to Virginia). In this way, residents would receive full representation while receiving the benefits of various Maryland educational and other opportunities. That reduction of the federal enclave has been incorporated in some statehood proposals.  I believed that such retrocession offered the fastest course for not just full representation but improved social and educational programs for the district residents.  I laid out a phased retrocession plan that began with immediate and full representation.  This could be done by congressional vote.

  People of good-faith can disagree on such proposals and the current legislation is clearly a constitutional approach to reaching a final resolution on the lack of representation in Congress.  Indeed, it is important to hear from those who believe that statehood is an important step toward dealing with the historical racial inequalities and discrimination in our nation.  Modified retrocession may not be enough to resolve such issues for many in our community.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 22:50

• Putin Declares Virus "Slowly Receding" In Russia Amid Sputnik V Mass Vaccination Campaign 
  Putin Declares Virus “Slowly Receding” In Russia Amid Sputnik V Mass Vaccination Campaign 

  Russian President Vladimir Putin told a meeting of his cabinet on Thursday that the swift actions of national health officials have caused the pandemic to slowly subside throughout the country, also given Russia was the first the roll out with a large-scale vaccination program of its population.

  “Generally, [these actions] yield positive results,” Putin declared, according to TASS. “The pandemic is gradually receding.”

  While stressing it remains “too early to relax” he nonetheless emphasized that the number of recoveries “has been steadily above the infection numbers lately.” Putin added, “As of lethality, the situation is generally satisfactory if you can speak about it in such terms. Nevertheless, this is the case in comparison with other countries.”

  

  He further touted at a moment that Hungary has controversially broken ranks with the EU and approved and bought the Russian Sputnik V vaccine that, “We have around 12 infections per every 100,000 people,” which is “four times as low as in European countries, many European countries.”

  “We launched a mass vaccination campaign on January 18, we have big plans in this regard,” the president noted. “[Trade and Industry Minister Denis] Manturov reported to me that vaccine production was ahead of schedule,” he added

  Yet he still estimated that 68 million Russians needed to be vaccinated against the coronavirus. Late summer and into the fall Russia faced fierce criticism over what Western officials called a “rush” to approve an unproven vaccine. 

  Indeed Russia was the first out globally, but time will tell of the effectiveness of the efforts. In early December ‘frontline’ workers that included teachers, doctors, social workers were the first round in the mass vaccination efforts, with the middle of this month seeing the campaign reaching the broader population.

  Russia now has the fifth highest number of cases worldwide at just over 3.7 million infections, which is barely under the UK. For the past months Russia was among the top four most infected countries globally. Critics have attacked the Kremlin’s official claims of having already vaccinated millions people with Sputnik V, with many suggesting the true number is in reality in the hundreds of thousands. 

  As the EU warns of supply delays in Covid-19 vaccine doses, and doubts mount about the effectiveness of the British Astra Zeneca offering, the makers of Russia’s @sputnikvaccine say they are ‘ready to help’ the 27-member bloc access supplies.https://t.co/4VBHceCqps

  — Bryan MacDonald (@27khv) January 28, 2021

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  Moscow further says it’s received orders for over a billion doses to be administered abroad at a moment the WHO is still reviewing it, as Reuters reports: “Asked about WHO’s scrutiny of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine, Kluge said he had spoken with Moscow’s ambassador on Wednesday and that he could confirm that data needed by WHO scientists to review the shot was en route to Geneva where the WHO is based.”

  “The Russian vaccine is being distributed in Europe including EU member state Hungary as well as elsewhere in the world, even though the European Medicines Agency is not currently reviewing it for approval,” the report noted.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 22:30

• Quinn: The Fourth Turning Detonation, Part 2
  Quinn: The Fourth Turning Detonation, Part 2

  Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

  In Part One of this article, I discussed the dramatic events that shaped 2020 and will continue to have a major influence on the direction of this Fourth Turning moving forward. The immense power of Mordor on the Potomac seems to be unassailable, but the little people still have a chance if they utilize their skills and intelligence to the utmost.

  

  Now that Trump has been defeated and cast into oblivion by the forces of Mordor on the Potomac, those who have some knowledge about generational theory and the course of previous Fourth Turnings have lamented Trump is not the Grey Champion and they were misled by believing he was their hero. How could he be the Grey Champion if he lost? I do not profess to be an expert, as I am just trying to understand the underlying forces driving this Fourth Turning towards its climax, but losing a battle in a long war does not disqualify Trump as a Grey Champion. The Grey Champion character was born from the writings of Nathaniel Hawthorne.

  

  “Who is this gray patriarch? His hour is one of darkness, and adversity, and peril. That stately form, combining the leader and the saint…could only belong to some old champion of the righteous cause, whom the oppressor’s drum had summoned from his grave.” – Nathaniel Hawthorne

  There is not just one Grey Champion during a Fourth Turning, and their participation is generally as a lightening rod for change or the inspiration for younger generations to mobilize and fight the battles which ultimately decide the fate of nations and empires.  Samuel Adams and Ben Franklin were Grey Champions during the American Revolution Fourth Turning. Their fiery rhetoric and ability to guide the younger firebrands were their contributions to the cause.

  Both Abe Lincoln and Jeff Davis were Grey Champions during the Civil War. One was assassinated before the conclusion of the war and the other was on the losing side, spending a couple years in a Federal prison after the war. FDR, Churchill, and Stalin were all Grey Champions during the World War II Fourth Turning. FDR died before the conclusion of the war and Congress implemented a two-term limit because he had become too powerful. Churchill was on the winning side, but the British empire disintegrated during his reign. Stalin, who had already murdered millions of his own people, presided over a despotic regime and immediately became the enemy of his former allies.

  Anyone with a true grasp of history would acknowledge all these men had significant personality faults, huge egos, a determination to win by any means necessary (including breaking the law and flaunting the Constitution), and ability to mobilize forces to accomplish their goals. As we are in the thirteenth year of this Fourth Turning and Grey Champions always arise in the earlier stages, there is no doubt Trump was and still is one of the Grey Champions driving this ongoing Crisis towards its bloody climax.

  He still has 75 million or so followers, with many of them motivated to go wherever he leads. Does this mean a new party which would destroy the Uni-party Republican/Democrat control over our government? Does it mean taking to the streets and confronting the BLM and ANTIFA domestic terrorists in armed combat? Or will he be convicted by the Senate, thrown in jail, and financially ruined by his failed attempt to defeat the Deep State – possibly spurring his followers to become radicalized – matching the narrative being pushed by the authoritarian leftist regime now in office?

  

  Those who put their faith in Trump are currently in disarray. Some feel betrayed. Others are depressed. Some are just disappointed he was unable to drain the swamp. They believe he just was not up to the task. Some think he was installed by the Deep State to lure a segment of the country into revealing their allegiances so they can be de-programmed and/or forced to grovel for forgiveness by pledging allegiance to the permanent party run by authoritarian billionaire oligarchs.

  The accusations and recriminations within the Republican party will surely tear it apart, especially if GOP Senators join Schumer and McConnell in convicting Trump of creating an insurrection. Of course, there are still diehard believers this is just part of the plan and Trump will emerge victorious over senile Joe and his Deep State handlers. Others hope he will run again in 2024, vanquishing his foes and once again making America great again again. It is unlikely that someone with Trump’s ego and desire for attention will just fade into the sunset. He will continue to be a lightning rod, impacting the future course of this Fourth Turning, as one of the Grey Champions.

  

  As I survey the landscape there are a few other major players who also fit the Grey Champion prophet archetype and will certainly play a key role in the forthcoming climactic scenes of this Fourth Turning. On the domestic front Bill Gates has emerged from the shadows during this scamdemic, using his immense wealth and power to push for global vaccinations with experimental DNA altering formulas never used on human beings before. His agenda coincides with Klaus Schwab’s Great Reset new world order.

  The Clintons are both Boomers who have functioned as the Jeff Davis to Trump over the last four years, participating and leading the Deep State coup by pushing the Russiagate fabrications to distract from their traitorous criminal acts. Crooked Hillary is ecstatic over deposing Trump and now is leading the effort to bury him. At this stage of the Fourth Turning, it appears Gates and the Clintons are winning, as they have the complete backing of the Deep State, Silicon Valley billionaire tyrants, and the globalist billionaires like Soros.

  

  The two Grey Champions who will most certainly play a part in the second half of this Fourth Turning, when blood is likely to be shed in vast quantities, are Vlad Putin and Xi Jinping. These ruthless dictators have no fear of losing an election or having to deal with a hostile media. The Deep State has been pushing conflict with Russia for Trump’s entire term and continue to push a nuclear power through NATO and vassals in the Middle East.

  The intensifying engagements between China and Taiwan, with the U.S. sailing an aircraft carrier force into the South China Sea, and ongoing tensions over trade and spying, have ratcheted up the chances of armed conflict between these nuclear super-powers. Fourth Turnings always plunge into total war, with an inescapable conclusion as to who won and who lost. Defeat means total surrender. The only question is what Pearl Harbor or Fort Sumter moment kicks off the festivities in the foreseeable future.

  Based on the first three weeks of this year and what appears to be on the short-term horizon, I am confident the term “detonation” will apply to this fateful year. The intensity level has already reached 10 but is headed up to 11.

  

  As Fourth Turnings go the 80-year cycle would certainly argue for substantial conflict to erupt in 2021.

  In 1781, the Battle of Yorktown concluded with Cornwallis surrendering to General Washington and concluding the armed struggle of the American Revolution, insuring the birth of a new nation.

  Exactly 80 years later in 1861, Southern states seceded from the Union and formed the Confederate States of America. Lincoln needed to sneak into Washington DC to avoid an assassination attempt in Baltimore. Fort Sumter was attacked and surrendered to Confederate forces. The First Battle of Bull Run resulted in a resounding Confederate victory and led Lincoln to institute a draft and an income tax. Over 600,000 men died in the next four years.

  

  Exactly 80 years later in 1941, while Hitler was riding roughshod across Europe and turning his attention towards Russia, the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor after FDR cut off their oil supply to provoke an attack. Tens of millions died over the next four years. It is now exactly 80 years later. One must ponder what potential tragedy awaits our nation and the world?

  

  With the elevation of a vacuous disorientated Trojan horse to the presidency, controlled by dark forces pulling the strings of their puppet, we are already experiencing many of the things Strauss and Howe warned about in their 1997 prophecy.

  “Institutions will be increasingly bossy, limiting personal freedoms, chastising bad manners, and cleansing the culture. Powerful new civic organizations will make judgments about which individual rights deserve respect and which do not. Criminal justice will become swift and rough, trampling on some innocents to protect an endangered and desperate society from those feared to be guilty. Expect a loss of personal privacy. Fourth Turnings can be dark times for the free spirit: Just as one kind of official may have new authority to do something for you, another kind—some hastily deputized magistrate—may have new authority to do something to you.”

  They were not predicting specifics but could decipher an outline of our future through the fog, by observing previous Fourth Turnings. The limitations of personal freedoms are being implemented by totalitarian politicians, with the Big-Tech surveillance censorship overlords used to enforce the directives of those running the show, while trampling on the 1st Amendment and the right of citizens to voice dissenting opinions. Those who have seized power are now criminalizing any view not fitting their approved narrative and painting all Trump supporters as white supremacists.

  These threats of retribution, while concurrently peddling nonsense about national unity, have the potential to backfire and blow up in their faces. Instead of unity, the impeachment of a president no longer in office and attempts to provoke violence by Trump supporters in order to usher in the pre-written 20,000 page Domestic Terror Patriot Act 2.0 is pushing the country towards civil war. The misuse of justice and criminalizing the acts of those exercising their right to live their lives will ignite a firestorm threatening to spread across the nation, with unknown long-term consequences.

  I will not pretend to know what comes next, but I am sure the three key factors driving this crisis since 2008: debt, civic decay, and global disorder will continue to coalesce into a lethal concoction, destined to sweep away the underpinnings of the American Empire, ushering in a new social order. I think the repressive measures being implemented by Pelosi, Schumer, despot Democrat governors, and government apparatchiks are a sign of weakness and fear. Their bluster, threats, fear mongering and denunciation of half the voters in the country, portray a precarious fragility, with a dangerous agenda built on a foundation of deception and delusion.

  

  A madness is gripping the nation, a dismal realization nothing is right. Everything has a chaotic feel, as financial markets surpass bubble territory into uncharted waters; politicians threaten and accuse each other of treasonous acts; government overreach and dysfunction is laid bare for all to see; the Deep State has been exposed as their coup to take down Trump required them to step out of the shadows; a manufactured race war led by BLM and ANTIFA useful idiots at the behest of Soros and his ilk continues to fester;  Russia and China continue to undermine U.S. hegemony; and the global debt Ponzi scheme has entered its blow-off road to ruin phase.

  The only thing keeping these financial markets at these outrageously elevated levels is an irrational level of misplaced trust in their puppet Powell and his feckless Fed cronies. When, not if, these markets begin to cascade downward and greed turns to fear, an implosion of institutional and societal trust will remove the final underpinnings of this unsustainable financial paradigm.

  The Wall Street QE addicts and their captured central banker drug dealers were able to exploit the concocted “Covid Crisis” as cover for an already imploding financial system with the injection of $4 trillion of heroin into their veins and the assurance of trillions more. Anyone using reason and rational thought knows this debt solvency fantasy is destined for a disastrous denouement. If it happens in 2021, this year will surely go down in history.

  This combustible amalgamation of unpayable debt, civic anarchy, and global chaos are poised to detonate in 2021, initiating a period of maximum darkness, death, destruction, and momentous choices. We are being propelled towards a climax which will mark the death of the old order and the birth of a new. The question is whether the new order will be better or worse for average Americans.

  With the newly installed totalitarian regime in Washington DC, it appears they plan to implement full government control over every aspect of our lives, with the final eradication of the 1st, 2nd, and 4th Amendments as the stick and unlimited government checks as the carrot. Their classification and treatment of 75 million Americans as the enemy will accomplish the task of converting them into a real enemy.

  

  There will be lone wolves who use violent means to fight back. Others will go Galt and starve the beast. Others may organize into like minded communities and dare the authorities to trample on their freedoms and liberties. It will be difficult to control 75 million angry, heavily armed, dis-enfranchised deplorables. The new regime is led by arrogant, hubristic, mediocre minded bureaucrats who are incapable of using anything but brutality to get there way.

  Their grasp on power is fragile and a determined strategic minded resistance will hit them where they are weakest, sabotaging commerce, communications, the power grid, and their social media propaganda arm. At this point in 2021 it looks bleak for lovers of liberty, but the fight has just begun.

  The coming deadly reckoning of this Fourth Turning will require tremendous courage, guile, personal sacrifice, dreadful alternatives, survival skills, intelligence, strategic thinking, and an audacity to win at all costs. Those still caught in the mindset of voting in good guys to change the outcome are delusional, as the outcome of this past election confirmed voting does not matter.

  There are wealthy, powerful, sociopath, globalist oligarchs who constitute the real power in this world and unless they are confronted and defeated, the outcome of this Fourth Turning will result in a dark future for humanity and the final obliteration of our Constitution. There is no way to avoid the coming conflict. Sides must be chosen. You will not be able to sit this one out. They will come for you, whether you like it or not.

  

  “If civic virtue is so frequently lost, it must be just as frequently regained. This is what happens in a Fourth Turning. While a Crisis mood renders societies newly desperate, it also renders them newly capable, which is why a saecular winter is to be welcomed as much as feared. As today’s Americans look ahead, the challenge is to marshal the coming season’s new public energies to achieve positive, not destructive ends. The better we ready ourselves collectively the more likely we will be not just to survive the Crisis but to apply its fury for good and humane purposes.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

  Based upon history, the ultimate resolution will not be based on compromise, civility, persuasion, or nonviolent means. Our world will be shaken to its very foundation and transformed in unknowable ways over the next decade. Winter has arrived with a ferocity born of the deceptions of powerful men, and we will need to marshal all our strength and fortitude to survive the coming tempests. The fury of the Crisis will eventually exhaust itself and result in a positive or destructive aftermath. History offers no guidance or assurances as to the outcome. That will be entirely up to us. Godspeed and good luck.

  *  *  *

  The corrupt establishment will do anything to suppress sites like the Burning Platform from revealing the truth. The corporate media does this by demonetizing sites like mine by blackballing the site from advertising revenue. If you get value from this site, please keep it running with a donation.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 22:10

• US Outraged After Pakistan's Top Court Frees Islamist Who Beheaded Journalist Daniel Pearl
  US Outraged After Pakistan’s Top Court Frees Islamist Who Beheaded Journalist Daniel Pearl

  The family of slain American journalist Daniel Pearl says they are in “complete shock” after Pakistan’s Supreme Court on Thursday ordered his Pakistani-British killer’s release after the family appealed a previously overturned conviction ruling. He and his accomplices were acquitted by a panel of three judges and will never again see a prison cell over the crime. 

  “By a majority of two to one, they have acquitted all the accused persons and ordered their release,” Reuters reports, citing a Pakistani courts official. The main suspect in Pearl’s Murder, Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh, had earlier been found guilty of luring the journalist to a meeting in 2002 in Karachi while he was investigating possible links between Richard C. Reid, known as the “Shoe Bomber”, and Pakistani jihadists.

  

  Later the same year the US embassy in Pakistan was subsequently mailed a gruesome beheading video confirmed to be that of 38-year-old Wall Street Journal reporter and California native Daniel Pearl.

  “Today’s decision is a complete travesty of justice,” Pearl’s family said.

  White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Thursday in follow-up that the US is “outraged” by the ruling:

  Speaking at the White House briefing Thursday, Psaki said the decision “is an affront to terrorism victims everywhere, including in Pakistan,” and she called on the “Pakistani government to expeditiously review its legal options including allowing the United States to prosecute Sheikh for the brutal murder of an American citizen and journalist.”

  Psaki said the Pakistani court’s actions underscored the administration’s commitment to secure justice for Pearl’s family.

  US “outraged” by the Pakistani supreme court decision to acquit those who murdered @WSJ reporter Daniel Pearl, says @PressSec. pic.twitter.com/6u3Dr6CnCL

  — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) January 28, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It could serve to severely damage US-Pakistani relations while already shaky, and further Reuters writes that the United States could seek to have Sheikh extradited.

  “The United States had said it may seek to try Sheikh if efforts to keep him in prison failed in what experts say could be a challenging factor in Pakistan’s relationship with the Washington. It comes as a new U.S. administration is reviewing Afghanistan’s peace process, in which Pakistan is a key player,” according to Reuters.

  The horrific slaying had been an early example in the ‘war on terror’ years of the gruesome lengths that al-Qaeda and other Islamist terror organizations would go to in order to send a “message” to the West, with multiple such beheading videos later coming out of Iraq and Syria.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 21:50

• Meet The Censored: Status Coup
  Meet The Censored: Status Coup

  Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News,

  On January 6th, Jon Farina, photographer and videographer for Jordan Chariton’s Status Coup outlet, captured horrifying images. At the Capitol, a pro-Trump mob tried to burst into the building, and a police officer who attempted to intercede was caught in a door. He cried out in pain, but the crowd was indifferent, chanting, “Heave, ho!” as they tried to break in. Farina, in the middle of the physical mayhem as photojournalists often are, caught the scene up close while 30,000 people watched the live feed.

  

  Farina’s footage rocketed around the world, and major press outlets celebrated his work as an example of hard-hitting reporting. CNN did a laudatory story about the freelance photojournalist, with Pamela Brown asking Farina to “bring us inside the mayhem.” Other outlets like USA Today quoted his recollections of that day, and the likes of Steven Colbert on CBS, as well as ABC News, NBC, MSNBC, CNBC, the Guardian, the Wall Street Journal, CNN, the New York Post, the Daily Mail, and others used it as fodder for outraged coverage of the riot:

  For a week or so, Status Coup was feted for service on the front lines of responsible journalism. Nearly two weeks later, on January 18th, another Farina live stream was shut down by YouTube, thanks to policies that will make it very difficult for non-corporate media going forward to do live reporting. In fact, it’s not a stretch to say that if the incident from the 18th happened earlier, we may never have gotten the Capitol pictures.

  On the 18th, Farina was in Richmond, Virginia, where a significant rally of pro-gun protesters was expected. There had been widespread reports warning of unrest. CBS relayed FBI fears of “credible threats of violence,” while the Washington Post said officials were “on edge” ahead of the Martin Luther King Day protest, gearing up for a full-scale assault:

  Members of the National Guard are on standby. Plywood covers the windows of the State Capitol. Tall metal barricades surround Capitol Square, with police vehicles idling on pathways just inside locked pedestrian gates. Downtown streets will be closed; signs warning against carrying guns have gone up around the city.

  “The violent, lawless insurrection and assault on democracy and its institutions that unfolded last week in Washington, D.C., will not be tolerated in the city of Richmond,” Mayor Levar Stoney warned on Thursday.

  The threats may have been credible, but when Farina began live-streaming to an audience of 6,000, the event turned out to be peaceful and unremarkable, though not without interest from a news perspective.

  “Frankly, there might have been more press than protesters,” Status Coup’s Chariton said later. “And while it was live, it was pretty informative. Jon talked to 4-5 people, and they pretty much all made it clear that they weren’t Trump supporters, that they didn’t support what happened in the Capitol. They were pretty relaxed compared to the propaganda ahead of time.”

  Despite the seeming unremarkableness of the event, it shut down abruptly mid-feed. Chariton assumed something happened on Farina’s end.

  “Then I got an email from YouTube, telling me we’d violated their ‘Firearms Policy.’ I wasn’t aware they had a firearms policy.”

  OUTRAGEOUS…

  Now @YouTube @TeamYouTube just REMOVED @StatusCoup & @JonFarina‘s Livestream reporting from PEACEFUL Virginia gun rights rally bc
  “we think it violates our firearms policy.”

  HOW ARE JOURNALISTS SUPPOSED TO CHRONICLE HISTORY IF YOUTUBE-AND OTHERS-ARE OUTLAWING IT? pic.twitter.com/PzD5EmR4MU

  — Jordan (@JordanChariton) January 18, 2021

  Chariton went onto Twitter to announce what happened, and after a few well-known media figures like Krystal Ball and Ryan Grim complained, YouTube restored the content. Other independents covering the rally, however, like Andrew Kimmel, never had their content restored.

  The serious consequence of the Virginia episode was not so much the lost coverage of the rally, but what Chariton had to tell Farina after the event. Well-known for covering labor issues, homelessness, and especially the Flint water crisis, Status Coup had been growing, in large part because of live stream content. Now, however, the possibility that YouTube might issue a strike against his channel, or take it down altogether, forced him into a difficult decision. “I had to tell [Farina] not to go live anymore,” he says.

  One person at the same rally wasn’t surprised by what happened. Videographer and well-known protest shooter Ford Fischer of News2Share, the first profile subject of “Meet the Censored,” was also in Richmond to shoot the event. He didn’t get taken down by YouTube, but only because he didn’t bother trying to go live.

  “I was there on January 18th and didn’t stream it, because I knew it’d get banned,” Fischer says. “I filmed basically the same rally on January 17th and it did get banned.”

  The January 17th rally Fischer referenced was a pro-gun rally in Columbus, Ohio, that in the wake of the Capitol riot garnered significant advance media coverage. Once again, headlines like “FBI warns of Potential Boogaloo Violence During January 17th Rallies” primed audiences to expect the worst, and also to make a direct connection with the January 6th events. In fact, Twitter cited the coming Ohio rally in its post announcing the closure of Donald Trump’s account, describing the Ohio event as a possible “secondary attack”:

  Plans for future armed protests have already begun proliferating on and off-Twitter, including a proposed secondary attack on the US Capitol and state capitol buildings on January 17, 2021. 

  According to Fischer, the Twitter announcement didn’t exactly make sense, because the protesters in Ohio were more of a libertarian ilk, and, as Farina and Chariton discovered in the Virginia crowd, not so clearly aligned with Trump as Twitter and other media outlets may have imagined. Fischer has frequently covered events involving the gun-toting Boogaloos, whom he describes as anti-authoritarian and less likely to be Trumpists than to profess a pox-on-both-houses attitude to Trump and Joe Biden both (“You might hear something like, ‘Unless you put Ron Paul on the ballot, I’m not voting,’” he says).

  Although there’s significant national interest in the group, both among supporters and detractors, Fischer says “I’ve basically stopped trying to live stream rallies involving Boogaloos.” Back on July 4th, 2020, he shot a live stream of a joint armed rally of Boogaloos and Black Lives Matter, protesting together against police violence — here again, we see the significant political differences between Trump supporters and some of these pro-gun groups — only to have the live stream interrupted, on the same grounds that it violated Google’s firearms policy.

  Nonetheless, Fischer attempted to shoot the January 17th rally, among other things because of the obvious public interest in the event, which was heavily covered by the mainstream press. Local TV affiliates associated with networks like ABC and CNN covered the January 17th rallies in Columbus and in other locations, even broadcasting live. However, when Fischer tried to live stream, he was cut off in short order by a notice identical to the one received by Chariton. He was reminded that YouTube “does not allow live streams showing someone holding, handling, or transporting a firearm.”

  

  The policy presents obvious head-scratching issues. For one, as Fischer points out, virtually all police carry a firearm, so “there’s obviously some subjectivity in what’s being enforced.” Furthermore, the rule doesn’t seem to apply to major corporate outlets, a double-standard problem that’s a constant in this universe.

  In an even more bizarre recent incident, YouTube this past weekend removed video Fischer shot on January 6th — not live footage, but still — of the crowd listening to Donald Trump before the Capitol riot. This time, the grounds were that the content advanced “false claims that widespread fraud errors or glitches affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.”

  Fischer supposes the issue has to do with the fact that the unedited, single-shot video — which is focused mainly on the crowd reaction — caught Trump’s own words. This might make sense, except that Trump’s speech that day is still on YouTube, as broadcast by several CBS affiliates, among others. As with Farina, Fischer’s Capitol protest footage was picked up by numerous major outlets, including CNN, NBC, CBS, BBC, and others, but the system seems to incentivize independent shooters to distribute footage through corporate outlets only, rather than conveying directly to their own audiences.

  “I absolutely think there’s a campaign against independent content creators, especially live,” Fischer says. “Major outlets face no such technical issues.”

  This makes any attempt to build an alternative news outlet a steep uphill climb, even when there’s a positive audience response, as Chariton has found out. Formerly with The Young Turks, Chariton’s niche is national news from a left/progressive perspective, with special emphasis on the area where corporate outlets once had a near-monopoly, e.g. on-location production of images and reporting.

  Typically, alternative media outlets can’t afford to travel much and often have to rely on wire services and commercial coverage for primary source material, especially for expensive beats like the presidential election. Chariton emphasizes going to hot spots like Flint and to election campaign events to generate original images and video interviews, an innovative alt-media take on national news coverage. Live stream coverage had been a major part of their formula.

  The Ohio and Virginia incidents underscore two developments involving platforms like YouTube/Google, Facebook, and Twitter in recent years. The first is the campaign to stress what Google calls “authoritative content,” which up-ranks articles and videos issued by major corporate news outlets like CNN or CBS, while decreasing traffic for independent sites on the left, the right, and in between.

  The second has been an effort to close loopholes in the platforms’ content moderation regimes. In the wake of the Capitol riot, this trend intensified. After the “insurrection,” a series of trial-balloon stories appeared in the press, suggesting that Internet nooks and crannies where conspiracy theory and misinformation proliferate might need more aggressive cleaning.

  The AP warned that “Apple and Google, among others, have left open a major loophole for this material: Podcasts.” The New York Times meanwhile reported on an exodus of millions of users who, fearing a Big Tech crackdown, jumped to encyrpted sites like Signal and Telegram.

  The Times quoted the head of the Association of State Criminal Investigative Agencies, Louis Grever, as saying such sites allow “groups that have an ill intent to plan behind the curtain.” Noting the situation “worried U.S. authorities,” the piece suggested the migration might “inflame the debate” over encryption.

  Podcasts, encrypted apps: how about live programming? Pundits had long worried that live stream capability was allowing the broadcast of violence and hate speech. In the hands of alternative media, however, the tool posed another problem, in the form of simply showing offensive reality.

  In the cases of people like Fischer and Chariton, however, it’s unclear how platforms like YouTube understand the documentation of political demonstrations. If you film a neo-Nazi running his mouth, should you be banned for covering his hate speech? If you show a gun-rights activist carrying a gun, are you yourself engaging in pro-gun activism?

  For independent outlets like Status Coup, these questions pose a serious problem. Because they’re dependent financially on platforms like YouTube to reach subscribers, they can’t afford to take the risk of being shut down. But how can alternative media operate if it doesn’t know exactly where the lines are? Also, how can such outlets add value when its one advantage over corporate media — flexibility, and willingness to cover topics outside the mainstream — is limited by the fear of consequences from making independent-minded editorial decisions?

  “It’s pretty horrible,” Chariton said, “if we have to consider not doing our jobs, out of fear that YouTube is going to remove our content, or remove our channel without warning (like they’ve begun doing to other, smaller channels).”

  The standard response to complaints about incidents like this is that YouTube and Google are private companies, and no one has a right to a platform on a private space. Chariton acknowledges this and concedes there are alternative platforms, like Rokfin, a video-sharing alternative to YouTube.

  For the foreseeable future anyway, however, it would be nearly impossible to build a successful alternative video-based channel without the assent of the small handful of major tech platforms that dominate media. “People live on YouTube and Facebook,” is how Chariton puts it.

  I asked him a few more questions about the future of live content, and what happened on January 18th:

  TK: How has the ability to produce live content affected your business?

  JC: Status Coup was up 20,000 subscribers since November, in large part because we were covering stories like the “Stop the Steal” movement and other issues related to the election. I’d say 95% of that content was live content. We’ve done a lot of stuff, from coverage of GM’s decision to lay off 15,000 workers to the epidemic of homelessness in Seattle, to repeated reporting trips in Flint covering the ongoing water crisis. It’s a major part of the business. It costs two to three grand for us to take a trip somewhere, and it’s already tight, but if we’re restricted in any way from doing live, that’s a blow because it brings in a significant amount of our revenue (which we need to then fund future in-the-field reporting trips).

  TK: What happened in Virginia to affect your decision-making about live content going forward?

  JC: I had to tell my cameraman not to go live… They’ve already shown they’re willing to take down some outlets entirely, without warning. The email YouTube sent me, I felt they could consider that a warning, and the next time, they could either give us a copyright strike, or remove us. I just can’t afford to take that risk.

  TK: Do you see this as part of a wider effort to close informational loopholes at these platforms?

  JC: It’s already documented that YouTube has been hiding independent channels in a cave, while elevating “authoritative” channels like — according to YouTube — CNN and Fox News. That’s Silicon Valley basically just saying outright, “We’re elevating some sources at the expense of others…” Unless you’re a major outlet that has a line to YouTube, you don’t have any way of clearing up these episodes. It’s easier to talk to someone at the CIA than it is to actually reach a human being at YouTube.

  TK: What are the implications of an incident like this for alternative media?

  JC: First of all, it’s worth pointing out, the only reason my content was restored is that I threw a shit-fit on Twitter, and people like Krystal Ball and Ryan Grim complained. But people like Andrew Kimmel did not have their content restored, proving there’s basically no rhyme or reason to this. It’s arbitrary. We’ve come to a place where you’d almost have to clear your decisions with YouTube ahead of time to feel completely safe.

  I understand, there must be some limits. If someone like Alex Jones is saying, “Go get your guns, get out there,” that’s really dangerous.

  But this, this is beyond a slippery slope. It’s a cliff. If they start pulling live streams or issuing strikes like this, it’s basically a death sentence for outlets like ours.

  Subscribe to TK News here.

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 21:30

• Dr. Fauci Wrong Again: Novavax Vaccine Only 50% Effective Against "Mutant" South African COVID Strain
  Dr. Fauci Wrong Again: Novavax Vaccine Only 50% Effective Against “Mutant” South African COVID Strain

  The latest COVID-19 vaccine news is unequivocally disappointing.

  Novavax, one of six US companies that received hundreds of millions of dollars upfront from the US government to develop a COVIID-19 vaccine, has just released preliminary data from its Phase 3 trials. The data showed the vaccine was 89.3% effective in the UK branch of the trial.

  

  Vaccine trials were held in nearly half a dozen countries, but in the UK, 62 people (out of roughly 15K) came down with COVID-19 symptoms after receiving either the vaccine or a placebo. Of these, six had received the vaccine, while 56 had gotten the placebo.

  Yet, in a separate, middle-stage study in South Africa, the trial data suggested the vaccine was much less effective. In South Africa, the Novavax shot was about 49.4% effective against Covid-19 in the study. Preliminary results showed that more than 90% of the sick subjects for whom sequencing data were available were infected with the new variant circulating in South Africa.

  The news comes at an inopportune time: A few hours ago, the CDC revealed that the first two confirmed cases of the hyper-infectious South African COVID mutation had been confirmed in South Carolina.

  In a separate Novavax trial held in South Africa, the efficacy was significantly lower. In a small trial the rate of protection was just 50%. Almost all the cases that scientists have analyzed there so far were caused by the mutated strain, known as B.1.351.

  What’s even more disturbing: The data also showed that many trial participants were infected with the variant even after they had already had COVID-19.

  Novavax tried to put a bright spin on the results.

  “We have the first trial — we are the first to conduct an efficacy trial — in the face of a changing virus,” said Stanley Erck, the president and chief executive of Novavax. He said that researchers expected the variants could change the trial results, but “the amount of change has been a bit of a surprise to everyone.”

  However, there’s no denying the fact that scientists like Dr. Anthony Fauci who repeatedly claimed that the vaccines would provide enduring protection despite mutations of the virus were clearly exaggerating their level of certainty. But that’s not the first time the data has gone against “the science”.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 21:10

• Silicon Valley Joins Push To Recall Newsom As New Candidates Eye Gubernatorial Bids
  Silicon Valley Joins Push To Recall Newsom As New Candidates Eye Gubernatorial Bids

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

  A group of technology investors and executives has joined the push to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom, as one investor announced a gubernatorial bid.

  

  Chamath Palihapitiya, the CEO of Social Capitol and a former Facebook executive, said in a tweet this week that he is running for governor as he used a hashtag for the campaign to remove Newsom.

  “It’s on,” he wrote.

  “California is a mess – it’s too expensive, our teachers are underpaid, and our schools aren’t good enough,” his campaign website says.

  The site says the longtime Democratic donor would cut taxes to zero percent, give teachers a minimum salary of $70,000, and will dole out $2,000 for every new child born in the state.

  As the campaign to recall Newsom gathers more and more signatures, it has attracted more and more supporters—including previous supporters of the governor.

  David Sacks, founder of the Craft Ventures fund, donated $60,000 to Newsom’s successful 2018 bid. But he came out Tuesday in support of Palihapitiya, who he described as a centrist Democrat, telling Bloomberg that Newsom “is totally beholden to special interests.”

  Kevin Faulconer, the former Republican mayor of San Diego, is also mulling a bid. He signed the recall campaign shortly after the New Year, writing on Facebook that “it’s time to start holding the governor accountable.”

  Recall Gavin 2020 initially drew scoffs but has proven immensely popular, drawing nearly 1.3 million signatures as of this week. That’s 77 percent of the number required to put removing Newsom to voters on an upcoming ballot.

  Campaign organizers alleged that Newsom lifting the harsh stay-at-home order on Monday was done to try to “maintain what grasp he still holds on the state.”

  “He knows he’s in trouble. It was a reckless choice; he made it by the seat of his pants, and now he’s going to get criticized for it,” Anne Hyde Dunsmore, the campaign manager for the recall effort, told The Epoch Times.

  

  California Gov. Gavin Newsom walks to a press conference at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Calif., on Jan. 15, 2021. (Irfan Khan/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

  Asked about the notion during a briefing, Newsom said it was “complete utter nonsense.”

  Officials asserted they lifted the order because of metrics linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, with projections showing a continued decrease in positive cases. COVID-19 is the disease caused by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus.

  Critics say Newsom, in his first term, bungled the CCP virus response. California has the most positive cases in the United States. They also point to his going out to eat in a crowded, indoor room while urging residents not to do so—news of the dinner leaked out later, prompting an apology.

  A spokesman for Newsom has told news outlets that the campaign is a waste of money and that the governor would “rather focus on getting through the homestretch of the pandemic.”

  There’s a model to recalling a governor in California. Gray Davis, a Democrat, was recalled in 2003. The campaign to oust him received strong financial support from Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), who warned Newsom last month to take the current effort seriously.

  Recall Newsom is getting donations from Silicon Valley. Patricia Perkins-Leone donated $99,800 last month, according to state records. She is the wife of Doug Leone, managing partner of the Sequoia Capital fund. Additionally, Dixon Doll and his wife, Carol, have given nearly $192,000. Doll is also a venture capitalist.

  Other large donors include the Prov. 3:9 LLC, construction company owners Susan and Howard Groff, and the California Revival political action committee.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 20:50

• Masayoshi Son Rewards Top Execs With Massive Loans To Help Pump SoftBank Shares
  Masayoshi Son Rewards Top Execs With Massive Loans To Help Pump SoftBank Shares

  With retail traders asserting their dominance over equity markets in a way the world hasn’t seen before (thanks to Wall Street Bets and its legions of rabid users hell-bent on punching hedge-fund shorts in the nose by taking GME to the moon), it’s worth looking back on an incident – which only unfolded few months ago – where Zero Hedge called out SoftBank for using an options-trading strategy that was partly responsible for driving huge gains in the Nasdaq (which, in turn, bolstered SoftBank’s bottom line) (and, in turn, bolstering both SoftBank and many of its top positions).

  SoftBank ended up making billions via what we termed “the biggest gamma squeeze” in history. But now that a similar squeeze has made GME the markets story of the year, and retail traders are once again taking over the market, SoftBank has shared another piece of the puzzle in its annual report.

  As the FT reports thanks to an incentive package that was approved a year ago (last February), four top SoftBank executives are sitting on a collective gain that could be as large as $1.2BN after they were each loaned hundreds of millions of dollars to buy the company’s (fast-rising) shares.

  Last year, SoftBank granted a total of $600MM in loans to four top executives: Rajeev Misra, head of SoftBank’s infamous Vision Fund, Marcelo Claure, currently the head of SoftBank Group International, Katsunori Sago, SoftBank’s chief strategy officer, and Ken Miyauchi, recently promoted to president and CEO (Nikkei targeted Miyauchi in a glowing profile published Thursday).

  Since then, three of these men (including, most famously, Misra) have stepped down from SoftBank’s board, alleviating the company of the responsibility for disclosing these compensation schemes. As one “expert” pointed out, not only is it unusual (if perhaps not illegal) for a company to refuse to disclose these compensation packages, in Japan, hefty executive pay packages are frowned upon, which is one reason why SoftBank might not want to reveal them.

  

  At any rate, the FT let the cat out of the bag. And now SoftBank (and its Chairman Masayoshi Son) has once again been caught with its hand in the cookie jar.

  The three men’s departure from the SoftBank board may mean that SoftBank will no longer be required to disclose fully their compensation and borrowings from the company to buy shares. One person said SoftBank is discussing whether to keep the same disclosures levels to reassure investors.

  “This kind of incentive scheme is extremely rare for Japanese companies,” said Katsuyuki Kubo, a corporate governance expert at Waseda University. “While there is no legal obligation, ideally from a governance perspective, incentives for top executives who are actively involved in running the company should be disclosed since the information is important for investors.” Mr Son has essentially backstopped his company’s potential losses on the loans to his lieutenants, with a footnote in the report explaining that the SoftBank founder had guaranteed any “shortfall” between the value of the collateral and the loan. 

  This isn’t the first time Son has used SoftBank shares to reward executives or founders.

  The 63-year-old SoftBank chief executive has provided similar support in the past. In 2019, Mr Son personally guaranteed $2bn of loans taken out by the then 25-year-old founder of Oyo, an Indian hotel business backed by the Vision Fund.  One asset manager, whose fund holds a significant stake in SoftBank, said that investors were now probably used to the idea that Mr Son likes senior staff to be both leveraged and incentivised through large holdings of SoftBank stock.  “But what we are seeing now seems to be taking that to the extreme. It adds into the picture of a company that is basically one guy calling every single shot, and your choice whether to take whatever risks come with that,” said the investor.

  But the great pains that Masayoshi Son took to disguise the loans suggest that something untoward might be afoot.

  

  Two of these executives, Misra and Claure, already rank among the top paid executives in Japan earning $15MM and $19.6MM last year (sums that are unusually high in Japan.

  Depending on when they exit the position, the men could be sitting on gains of anywhere between $300MM and $1.2BN. Now, some institutional investors are telling the FT that these loans have aroused their suspicions, and that they fear that the departure of Misra and two of the other four men from the SoftBank board late this past year might have been engineered to keep these loans in the dark.

  While trying to keep top talent on board in the wake of the 2019 WeWork disaster, did Masayoshi Son create another mess while trying to clean up an earlier one?

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 20:30

• 6 State Attorneys General Warn Biden Over Potential Presidential Overreach
  6 State Attorneys General Warn Biden Over Potential Presidential Overreach

  Authored by Janita Kan via The Epoch Times,

  A coalition of state attorneys general on Wednesday sent a letter to President Joe Biden reminding him that any potentially unconstitutional executive actions or federal overreach will not go unchallenged.

  

  The letter, signed by six attorneys general (AGs), puts the Biden administration on notice that any actions that might exceed their statutory authority, are inconsistent with constitutional tenets, or place civil liberties at risk could trigger legal action by the states.

  “We stand ready to meet with your administration to discuss more how the issues below affect our States; litigation is never first option, and we would like to help your team in its important job on behalf of all Americans, consistent with the Constitution and the rule of law,” West Virginia AG Patrick Morrisey, who is leading the group, wrote in the letter addressed to the White House (pdf).

  “Yet if you sign unconstitutional laws passed by Congress, it will be our responsibility and duty to challenge those laws in court. If cabinet officials, executive officers, and agencies go beyond the bounds of their statutory authority, fail to follow legally required procedures, or fall short of the bedrock Administrative Procedure Act obligation of reasoned decision making, it will likewise be our responsibility to take action.”

  The Administrative Procedure Act, or APA, is a federal law that governs the process for agency rulemaking and has been frequently invoked to challenge executive branch rules and regulations.

  Morrisey is joined by AGs from Arkansas, Indiana, Mississippi, Montana, and Texas.

  It comes as Biden issued a series of executive orders in his first week since taking office. Some of the executive orders have overturned Trump-era policies, while others have established or expanded policies relating to climate change, racial equity, and the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus pandemic.

  Some of the orders have already drawn widespread scrutiny, such as the decisions to rejoin the Paris Climate agreement and to cancel the Keystone XL Pipeline, which is expected to put thousands of jobs at risk and undermine the U.S. relationship with Canada. The Biden admin has also met with backlash for embracing a quasi-Marxist critical race theory in its policies seeking to prioritize certain racial groups that have historically met with disadvantage over others.

  Similarly, Biden’s order addressing discrimination on the basis of gender identity and sexual orientation is expected to threaten the constitutional freedom to exercise one’s religious beliefs for individuals and organizations who affirm the traditional understanding of human persons as created biologically male and female.

  “The President cannot cut constitutional corners or shirk statutory strictures without inevitably doing more harm to our country than good,” the AGs wrote.

  “The foundations of our republic and American life are embedded within our Constitution’s carefully crafted design.

  “Accordingly, today by this letter we respectfully urge you when pursuing your policy priorities to honor the core constitutional tenets which should be appreciated and respected by every person entrusted with the honor and burdens of the presidency,” they wrote to Biden.

  The letter notes the freedom of religion and religious expression, and the right to bear arms as two areas of concern.

  The AGs said that while there is always pressure for U.S. presidents and Congress to exceed their power “lest they be judged to be ignoring important issues or failing to address critical problems,” it is a president’s duty to uphold the U.S. Constitution’s separation of powers as well as respect the sovereignty of the states.

  They added that limits on federal power are not a flaw of the Constitution and that when certain issues that are excluded from the federal sphere need to be addressed, the “states are ready and able to do the job.”

  The Biden administration has already faced several legal challenges over its executive actions. A federal judge in Texas temporarily blocked Biden’s executive order to halt the deportation of certain immigrants for 100 days. The order is seen as a setback for the administration, which had campaigned on implementing far-reaching immigration changes, including a plan that would legalize about 11 million illegal immigrants.

  Earlier on Wednesday, Western Energy Alliance, a group representing fossil fuel producers on federal lands, challenged Biden’s executive order aimed at halting oil and gas leasing on federal lands and waters.

  Legal challenges against presidential orders are not uncommon. During former President Donald Trump’s four years in office, Democrat AGs frequently sued his administration on a range of executive actions and regulations in the area including health, climate, and immigration.

  According to a website run by Dr. Paul Nolette, associate professor of political science at Marquette University, who tracked the lawsuits against the former president, the Trump administration was sued 157 times in cases where states were initial plaintiffs, successful intervenors, or in single state lawsuits.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 20:10

• JPMorgan Has Some Bad News For Hedge Funds Hoping The Nightmare Ends Soon
  JPMorgan Has Some Bad News For Hedge Funds Hoping The Nightmare Ends Soon

  For a few hours this morning it seemed that all was lost for r/WallStreetBets and their crusade to teach Wall Street billionaires a lesson, when one exchange after another banned buying in the most-shorted stocks, an unprecedented unilateral decision made by brokerages (one of which, Robinhood, is effectively joined at the hip with hedge fund Citadel, which in turn is a part owner of Melvin Capital which was destroyed by the short squeeze that Robinhood banned, so a clear conflict of interest), and one which sent GME stock as low as $112 after trading at $500 just hours earlier.

  

  However the hedge funds short Gamestop, who may have declared victory prematurely, had to put the champagne back on ice because just after the close, amid tremendous pushback from clients, Congress, and the public – not to mention what appears to be a liquidity crisis as millions of accounts bailed – Robinhood announced it would allow buying to resume on Friday, sending the stock up almost double after hours.

  And since any victory for the WallStreetBets crowd means the short squeeze is back, it also means that a defeat for hedge funds, as can be seen in the chart below which shows that the Goldman most shorted basket is a mirror image of the Goldman hedge fund VIP basket.

  

  In other words, any expectation that the WSB crowd would be finally crushed today and the hedge fund world would return to normalcy was crushed.

  But what happens next, and how does it all end?

  Last night we speculated that if indeed there are more shorts – both synthetically or otherwise – than available shares, then the only place bearish hedge funds will be get shares to cover their shorts is from the company itself. Which means that Gamestop can theoretically ask for any price (somewhat reasonable) and hedge funds will have to agree. After all, it’s not GME’s fault that hedge funds were so greedy they overshorted the company, which really is what all this boils down to.

  The only wait out of this for the shorts may be to beg for the company to sell them stock. And GME can name any price https://t.co/4785L2P3VB

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 28, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Of course, that is a bit of an idealistic take, one where hedge funds finally are forced to pay for their stupidity. Alas, in a country as corrupt as this one, that’s unlikely to ever happen. Still, that doesn’t change the fact that the answer suddenly matters extremely.

  In fact, as JPM’s Andrew Tyler writes in his EOD market intelligence note, “Are we there yet” -i.e., is the squeeze over –  is “the biggest question and hardest to answer definitively.”

  Here is his take.

  • POSITIONING INTELLIGENCE: The team published a new note, Tactical Takes | De-Grossing Accelerates – 1-Day Magnitude in Line with Last March, but Medium Trend Not There Yet
    • Summary of what we saw yesterday:
    • Globally, yesterday was a >3z (i.e. standard deviation) de-gross day with vastmajority (80%) happening in US, but did see it in EMEA (about 2z) and APAC(~1z).
    • Equity L/S funds were the main ones reducing exposure in the US – for perspective, Tues was a -3z de-gross day and Wed was about 2x that.
    • Quants were de-grossing DoD as well, but magnitudes were more in line with Tues, which was a 1z event.
    • Despite all the recent Active de-grossing, gross and net $ exposure are relativelyunchanged YTD (because market still up in some parts, e.g. small caps, and HighSI names up a lot).
    • For the US High SI names, yesterday appeared to be a ~5z covering event
      • Notionally, because these stocks have rallied so much, the SMV is barelydown YTD, but the magnitude of the active covering over the past fewweeks appears to be nearly in line with what we saw last March.
    • Performance on Wed was worst of past 3 days with long-short spread nearlydouble the worst days in March ’20 for L/S funds (long-short spread for Quants andMulti-Strats was quite negative as well).
  • Are we there yet? (the biggest question and hardest to answer definitively)
    • On the short side, the magnitude of covering in the High SI stocks would suggest it is closer to the end, but it is not clear that this holds true more broadly.
    • The bigger risk seems to be whether the recent long selling that started in earnest this week has to persist for a while longer.
    • Put together, in N. America, the 4wk active de-grossing has NOT yet reached even a 1z event and not nearly where things got to last March/April or in prior periods of strong de-grossing.
    • Furthermore, with notional exposures effectively still near highs (and performance negative), it’s likely that gross leverage has gone up for many funds.
    • With all this said, the fact that this is NOT occurring due to a broader weakening in the macro backdrop makes it harder to gauge how much further this should go.

  In short, expect much more pain. No surprise there. What we find shocking however is that just yesterday another JPMorganite, Marko Kolanovic published a note urging clients to do just the opposite, BTFD, claiming that the WSB fiasco would be over soon and won’t have any material impacts. In retrospect, we now know which report was meant for the “good” clients, and which was one the mindless fodder meant for general consumption.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 19:48

• How To Survive "Cancel Culture" When You Have Unpopular Opinions
  How To Survive “Cancel Culture” When You Have Unpopular Opinions

  Authored by Terry Trahan via TheOrganicPrepper.com,

  Well, hello there. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but we live in a vastly different world than the last time I posted here. The social landscape, political, and, it seems, everyday life is trending vastly different since 2020, Covid, and the national elections.

  Daisy recently sent out an email explaining the shift away from discussing politics in light of cancel culture and the like. I want to expand on those thoughts, but from an underground, guerrilla angle.

  A huge part of survival, prepping, and Nomad Strategies is getting done what needs to be done with minimal interference or notice from those around us. The more eyes on your project, the more people that can foul up our plans, throw a wrench in the works, or, nowadays, ruin your life.

  

  Have a secret identity.

  So, we turn to lesson number one from the great bastion of literature: comic books.

  What does almost every comic character have? A secret identity. And why? So they are not having to fight, protect their family, and hide from the public all the time. That is a mighty wise course of action. Life is not a movie. There are rarely times to take a bold, public stand that will put you or your people in danger.

  It is a blessing to live in the time and place we do that enables us to engage in such vociferous debate levels with no real consequences. That is not the norm throughout history, and, as we can see, it is changing in front of our eyes. All one needs to do is look at the world outside of the U.S. for current or very recent historical examples. Take a look at where Selco comes from or Belfast just a couple of decades ago. Look at many areas of the Middle East, Syria, or Asia for current displays of enforcement. 

  You don’t have to share your opinions with everyone.

  Keeping a low profile as long as possible is a crucial OpSec practice.

  Note: I am not saying you are not allowed to have opinions. But, I am a firm believer in only discussing them with known associates in private. It is also easier to keep seeing the other party as still human if you do it in person. *Othering is a nasty thing to do and nastier to be on the receiving end of. Remembering that the other side is not the devil incarnate helps to identify actual enemies easier. Instead of jumping at every boogyman brought to your attention, save your energy for real, in your face threats.

  *The term Othering describes the reductive action of labeling and defining a person as a subaltern native, as someone who belongs to the socially subordinate category of the Other. 

  Choose your battles wisely, or don’t battle at all

  Another reason for concentrating on the mission: it’s a waste of your time. Leave the arguing and name-calling to others. Arguing lessens your productivity and may alienate potential allies that could assist you. (Except for those pesky Facebook posts you made, calling their kind evil and stupid.) Choosing not to participate in arguments and debates shows that you have mental toughness, compassion, discernment, and, most importantly, self-control.

  In case you aren’t aware, those and your integrity are essential things to keep intact. Both for our own well being and for cultivating good, successful relationships. Keep your ego intact, and if you can exercise the self-control required to not argue points with others that don’t matter in the day-to-day. 

  You will be more peaceful. 

  Fewer distractions = more time to work on numero uno

  As Toby Cowern’s recent article asks: Are You Maintaining the Most Vital Resources in Your Preppertoire? And what is that resource? YOU. Are you making sure that self-care is the most important part of your prepping plans? 

  We want to give ourselves as much time as possible to work on various aspects of ourselves that need the work.

  Distractions from this can be costly. It can be costly in terms of time wasted on a needless post, and at its worst, it can literally cost you everything you have worked for and built up.

  Stop throwing chum to the internet sharks.

  An important but often overlooked aspect of any successful underground work is the ability to escape notice. Therefore escaping issues that will negatively impact your ability to move forward will help you complete whatever the mission at hand is.

  Rather than willingly compromising your future, stop engaging with the sharks. Instead of spending time engaged in activities that are not beneficial, use your time wisely. Allocate the majority of your time to doing the work. Use your downtime to recharge, find the good, relax, and keep your eyes on the prize.

  There may be a time in the near future where we must elevate to a more offensive posture. But now is not that time. What we do now is an important step in keeping us more even-keeled and ready. Don’t volunteer yourself for the enemies list. There are already plenty of people that will gladly put some of us there.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 19:30

• Dallas DEA Makes Largest-Ever Meth Bust In North Texas 
  Dallas DEA Makes Largest-Ever Meth Bust In North Texas 

  The Drug Enforcement Administration’s (DEA) Dallas field division reported this week the largest methamphetamine seizure ever in North Texas, according to local news WFAA. 

  DEA agents seized 1,950 pounds of meth, valued at $45 million, hidden within the bed of a refrigerated tractor-trailer off Interstate 35 in Denton County. A detection dog or sniffer dog pinpointed the large stash during a traffic stop, amounting to 663 packages. 

  

  “It’s a staggering amount to be seized at one time,” said Eduardo Chavez, the Special Agent in Charge for DEA Dallas. “They were like sausage links.”

  

  The bust was equivalent to 20% of the total amount the Dallas field division seized in 2020. 

  “I see a lot of lives saved when we can stack up kilograms of drugs like this on a table,” Chavez said. “Unfortunately, methamphetamine is one of the largest threats in North Texas, so we would anticipate that a lot of it was destined for the market here.”

  Chavez said the drugs were likely intended for black markets in St. Louis, Chicago, and Atlanta. The DEA believes the drugs belonged to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel headed by Nemesio Oseguera-Cervantes, otherwise known as “El Mencho.” 

  

  “No doubt, this got his (El Mencho) attention. A seizure like this, he most likely got a phone call,” Chavez said. “We take one of these seizures and try to expand the network, try to identify perhaps what other ones have gotten through.”

  During the pandemic, the Trump administration cracked down on drug traffickers along a ‘meth superhighway’ controlled by Mexican cartels that stretched across the U.S. A six-month operation by the federal government seized thousands of pounds of meth, tens of millions of dollars, and hundreds of firearms. 

  During the pandemic, meth inflation surged from $4,000 in March to nearly $16,000 by May. 

  Meanwhile, deaths related to meth-overdoses have surged across the country, especially among Blacks and American Indians/Alaska Natives.

  “While much attention is focused on the opioid crisis, a methamphetamine crisis has been quietly, but actively, gaining steam — particularly among American Indians and Alaska Natives, who are disproportionately affected by a number of health conditions,” said Dr. Nora Volkow, director of the U.S. National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA).

  The Trump administration made a concerted effort among federal, state, and local leaders to combat drug traffickers and criminal cartels for violating U.S. sovereignty via breaching the southern border. However, it remains to be seen if the Biden administration will continue such policies.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 19:23

• Sri Lanka's Stock Market Is Up 30% In 2021 And Has Doubled From Its 2020 Lows
  Sri Lanka’s Stock Market Is Up 30% In 2021 And Has Doubled From Its 2020 Lows

  While attention in the U.S. may be focused on the ongoing short squeezes in a few select names, the Sri Lankan stock market – as a whole – isn’t far behind.

  Stocks in Sri Lanka have returned a “world beating” 30% so far this year, Bloomberg noted on Wednesday. The returns are eye popping, especially given that we are only 28 days into the new year.

  Traders in Sri Lanka have bought $802 million worth of equities this month, the report notes, which is 45% of last year’s total domestic purchases. The domestic inflows come as many overseas investors leave the market, selling a net $25 million in shares in January. In 2020, overseas investors had outflows of $273 million. 

  Joshua Crabb, a Hong Kong-based money manager, told Bloomberg: “As the pandemic rebound got underway, abundance of global liquidity, substantial rate cuts and domestic retail participation have helped fuel the rally. Keep in mind the currency has also weakened, which makes exports more competitive, encourages tourism and introduces inflation, which helps nominal assets like equities.”

  

  The country’s Colombo Stock Exchange All Share Index tumbled in March 2019 with global markets as a result of the global pandemic and localized political uncertainty. But the country’s central bank cut its key rate by 200 basis points and has provided liquidity, prompting the nation’s market to scream higher.

  The market has doubled off of its lows and the country has now even re-opened some of its airports for international tourism again. The country also recently approved the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid vaccine for emergency use, providing another tailwind for the market heading into the Spring.

  Crabb concluded: “In the near term, I would expect the market to consolidate its gains. At current valuations, we really need to see an improvement in the economy and in company earnings to see another leg up.”
   

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 19:10

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• Whitehead: Enemies Of The Deep State – The Government's War On Domestic Terrorism Is A Trap
  Whitehead: Enemies Of The Deep State – The Government’s War On Domestic Terrorism Is A Trap

  Authored by John Whitehead and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “This is an issue that all Democrats, Republicans, independents, Libertarians should be extremely concerned about, especially because we don’t have to guess about where this goes or how this ends. What characteristics are we looking for as we are building this profile of a potential extremist, what are we talking about? Religious extremists, are we talking about Christians, evangelical Christians, what is a religious extremist? Is it somebody who is pro-life? [The proposed legislation could create] a very dangerous undermining of our civil liberties, our freedoms in our Constitution, and a targeting of almost half of the country.”

  – Tulsi Gabbard, former Congresswoman

  This is how it begins.

  We are moving fast down that slippery slope to an authoritarian society in which the only opinions, ideas and speech expressed are the ones permitted by the government and its corporate cohorts.

  In the wake of the Jan. 6 riots at the Capitol, “domestic terrorism” has become the new poster child for expanding the government’s powers at the expense of civil liberties.

  Of course, “domestic terrorist” is just the latest bull’s eye phrase, to be used interchangeably with “anti-government,” “extremist” and “terrorist,” to describe anyone who might fall somewhere on a very broad spectrum of viewpoints that could be considered “dangerous.”

  Watch and see: we are all about to become enemies of the state.

  In a déjà vu mirroring of the legislative fall-out from 9/11, and the ensuing build-up of the security state, there is a growing demand in certain sectors for the government to be given expanded powers to root out “domestic” terrorism, the Constitution be damned.

  If this is a test of Joe Biden’s worthiness to head up the American police state, he seems ready.

  As part of his inaugural address, President Biden pledged to confront and defeat “a rise of political extremism, white supremacy, domestic terrorism.” Biden has also asked the Director of National Intelligence to work with the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security in carrying out a “comprehensive threat assessment” of domestic terrorism. And then to keep the parallels going, there is the proposed Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act of 2021, introduced after the Jan. 6 riots, which aims to equip the government with “the tools to identify, monitor and thwart” those who could become radicalized to violence.

  Don’t blink or you’ll miss the sleight of hand.

  This is the tricky part of the Deep State’s con game that keeps you focused on the shell game in front of you while your wallet is being picked clean by ruffians in your midst.

  It follows the same pattern as every other convenient “crisis” used by the government as an excuse to expand its powers at the citizenry’s expense and at the expense of our freedoms.

  As investigative journalist Glenn Greenwald warns:

  “The last two weeks have ushered in a wave of new domestic police powers and rhetoric in the name of fighting ‘terrorism’ that are carbon copies of many of the worst excesses of the first War on Terror that began nearly twenty years ago. This New War on Terror—one that is domestic in name from the start and carries the explicit purpose of fighting ‘extremists’ and ‘domestic terrorists’ among American citizens on U.S. soil—presents the whole slew of historically familiar dangers when governments, exploiting media-generated fear and dangers, arm themselves with the power to control information, debate, opinion, activism and protests.”

  Greenwald is referring to the USA Patriot Act, passed almost 20 years ago, which paved the way for the eradication of every vital safeguard against government overreach, corruption and abuse.

  Free speech, the right to protest, the right to challenge government wrongdoing, due process, a presumption of innocence, the right to self-defense, accountability and transparency in government, privacy, press, sovereignty, assembly, bodily integrity, representative government: all of these and more have become casualties in the government’s war on the American people, a war that has grown more pronounced since Sept. 11, 2001.

  Some members of Congress get it.

  In a letter opposing expansion of national security powers, a handful congressional representatives urged their colleagues not to repeat the mistakes of the past:

  “While many may find comfort in increased national security powers in the wake of this attack, we must emphasize that we have been here before and we have seen where that road leads. Our history is littered with examples of initiatives sold as being necessary to fight extremism that quickly devolve into tools used for the mass violation of the human and civil rights of the American people… To expand the government’s national security powers once again at the expense of the human and civil rights of the American people would only serve to further undermine our democracy, not protect it.”

  Cue the Emergency State, the government’s Machiavellian version of crisis management that justifies all manner of government tyranny in the so-called name of national security.

  This is the power grab hiding in plain sight, obscured by the political machinations of the self-righteous elite. This is how the government continues to exploit crises and use them as opportunities for power grabs under the guise of national security. Indeed, this is exactly how the government added red flag gun laws, precrime surveillance, fusion centers, threat assessments, mental health assessments, involuntary confinement to its arsenal of weaponized powers.

  The objective is not to make America safe again. That has never been the government’s aim.

  Greenwald explains:

  “Why would such new terrorism laws be needed in a country that already imprisons more of its citizens than any other country in the world as the result of a very aggressive set of criminal laws? What acts should be criminalized by new ‘domestic terrorism’ laws that are not already deemed criminal? They never say, almost certainly because—just as was true of the first set of new War on Terror laws—their real aim is to criminalize that which should not be criminalized: speech, association, protests, opposition to the new ruling coalition.”

  So you see, the issue is not whether Donald Trump or Roger Stone or MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell deserve to be banned from Twitter, even if they’re believed to be spouting misinformation, hateful ideas, or fomenting discontent.

  Rather, we should be asking whether any corporation or government agency or entity representing a fusion of the two should have the power to muzzle, silence, censor, regulate, control and altogether eradicate so-called “dangerous” or “extremist” ideas.

  This unilateral power to muzzle free speech represents a far greater danger than any so-called right- or left-wing extremist might pose.

  The ramifications are so far-reaching as to render almost every American an extremist in word, deed, thought or by association.

  Yet where many go wrong is in assuming that you have to be doing something illegal or challenging the government’s authority in order to be flagged as a suspicious character, labeled an enemy of the state and locked up like a dangerous criminal.

  Eventually, all you will really need to do is use certain trigger words, surf the internet, communicate using a cell phone, drive a car, stay at a hotel, purchase materials at a hardware store, take flying or boating lessons, appear suspicious, question government authority, or generally live in the United States.

  The groundwork has already been laid.

  The trap is set.

  All that is needed is the right bait.

  With the help of automated eyes and ears, a growing arsenal of high-tech software, hardware and techniques, government propaganda urging Americans to turn into spies and snitches, as well as social media and behavior sensing software, government agents have been busily spinning a sticky spider-web of threat assessments, behavioral sensing warnings, flagged “words,” and “suspicious” activity reports aimed at snaring potential enemies of the state.

  It’s the American police state’s take on the dystopian terrors foreshadowed by George Orwell, Aldous Huxley and Phillip K. Dick all rolled up into one oppressive pre-crime and pre-thought crime package.

  What’s more, the technocrats who run the surveillance state don’t even have to break a sweat while monitoring what you say, what you read, what you write, where you go, how much you spend, whom you support, and with whom you communicate. Computers by way of AI (artificial intelligence) now do the tedious work of trolling social media, the internet, text messages and phone calls for potentially anti-government remarks, all of which is carefully recorded, documented, and stored to be used against you someday at a time and place of the government’s choosing.

  For instance, police in major American cities have been using predictive policing technology that allows them to identify individuals—or groups of individuals—most likely to commit a crime in a given community. Those individuals are then put on notice that their movements and activities will be closely monitored and any criminal activity (by them or their associates) will result in harsh penalties. 

  In other words, the burden of proof is reversed: you are guilty before you are given any chance to prove you are innocent.

  Dig beneath the surface of this kind of surveillance/police state, however, and you will find that the real purpose of pre-crime is not safety but control.

  Red flag gun laws merely push us that much closer towards a suspect society where everyone is potentially guilty of some crime or another and must be preemptively rendered harmless.

  This is the same government that has a growing list—shared with fusion centers and law enforcement agencies—of ideologies, behaviors, affiliations and other characteristics that could flag someone as suspicious and result in their being labeled potential enemies of the state.

  For instance, if you believe in and exercise your rights under the Constitution (namely, your right to speak freely, worship freely, associate with like-minded individuals who share your political views, criticize the government, own a weapon, demand a warrant before being questioned or searched, or any other activity viewed as potentially anti-government, racist, bigoted, anarchic or sovereign), you could be at the top of the government’s terrorism watch list.

  Moreover, as a New York Times editorial warns, you may be an anti-government extremist (a.k.a. domestic terrorist) in the eyes of the police if you are afraid that the government is plotting to confiscate your firearms, if you believe the economy is about to collapse and the government will soon declare martial law, or if you display an unusual number of political and/or ideological bumper stickers on your car.

  According to one FBI latest report, you might also be classified as a domestic terrorism threat if you espouse conspiracy theories, especially if you “attempt to explain events or circumstances as the result of a group of actors working in secret to benefit themselves at the expense of others” and are “usually at odds with official or prevailing explanations of events.”

  Additionally, according to Michael C. McGarrity, the FBI’s assistant director of the counterterrorism division, the bureau now “classifies domestic terrorism threats into four main categories: racially motivated violent extremism, anti-government/anti-authority extremism, animal rights/environmental extremism, and abortion extremism.”

  In other words, if you dare to subscribe to any views that are contrary to the government’s, you may well be suspected of being a domestic terrorist and treated accordingly.

  Again, where many Americans go wrong is in naively assuming that you have to be doing something illegal or harmful in order to be flagged and targeted for some form of intervention or detention.

  In fact, U.S. police agencies have been working to identify and manage potential extremist “threats,” violent or otherwise, before they can become actual threats for some time now.

  In much the same way that the USA Patriot Act was used as a front to advance the surveillance state, allowing the government to establish a far-reaching domestic spying program that turned every American citizen into a criminal suspect, the government’s anti-extremism program renders otherwise lawful, nonviolent activities as potentially extremist.

  In fact, all you need to do these days to end up on a government watch list or be subjected to heightened scrutiny is use certain trigger words (like cloud, pork and pirates), surf the internet, communicate using a cell phone, limp or stutter, drive a car, stay at a hotel, attend a political rally, express yourself on social media, appear mentally ill, serve in the military, disagree with a law enforcement official, call in sick to work, purchase materials at a hardware store, take flying or boating lessons, appear suspicious, appear confused or nervous, fidget or whistle or smell bad, be seen in public waving a toy gun or anything remotely resembling a gun (such as a water nozzle or a remote control or a walking cane), stare at a police officer, question government authority, or appear to be pro-gun or pro-freedom.

  Be warned: once you get on such a government watch list—whether it’s a terrorist watch list, a mental health watch list, a dissident watch list, or a red flag gun watch list—there’s no clear-cut way to get off, whether or not you should actually be on there.

  You will be tracked wherever you go.

  You will be flagged as a potential threat and dealt with accordingly.

  This is pre-crime on an ideological scale and it’s been a long time coming.

  The government has been building its pre-crime, surveillance network in concert with fusion centers (of which there are 78 nationwide, with partners in the corporate sector and globally), data collection agencies, behavioral scientists, corporations, social media, and community organizers and by relying on cutting-edge technology for surveillance, facial recognition, predictive policing, biometrics, and behavioral epigenetics (in which life experiences alter one’s genetic makeup).

  If you’re not scared yet, you should be.

  Connect the dots.

  Start with the powers amassed by the government under the USA Patriot Act, note the government’s ever-broadening definition of what it considers to be an “extremist,” then add in the government’s detention powers under NDAA, the National Security Agency’s far-reaching surveillance networks, and fusion centers that collect and share surveillance data between local, state and federal police agencies.

  To that, add tens of thousands of armed, surveillance drones and balloons that are beginning to blanket American skies, facial recognition technology that will identify and track you wherever you go and whatever you do. And then to complete the picture, toss in the real-time crime centers being deployed in cities across the country, which will be attempting to “predict” crimes and identify so-called criminals before they happen based on widespread surveillance, complex mathematical algorithms and prognostication programs.

  Hopefully you’re starting to understand how easy we’ve made it for the government to identify, label, target, defuse and detain anyone it views as a potential threat for a variety of reasons that run the gamut from mental illness to having a military background to challenging its authority to just being on the government’s list of persona non grata.

  There’s always a price to pay for standing up to the powers-that-be.

  Yet as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, you don’t even have to be a dissident to get flagged by the government for surveillance, censorship and detention.

  All you really need to be is a citizen of the American police state.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 01/28/2021 – 00:00

• We Have Some Bad News For Gamestop Shorts
  We Have Some Bad News For Gamestop Shorts

  We have some bad news for GME shorts.

  Despite the posturing that this or that hedge fund has covered its Gamestop exposure, new shorts have simply taken their place, and as Ihor Dusaniwsky, head of S3 Partners which provides daily short interest tracking in real-time notes, the short interest – after all the recent fireworks – is still a whopping 139.7%…

  $GME short int is $10.64B; 71.88M shs shorted; 139.73% of Float; 58.29% S3 SI% Flt; 38% fee & rising. Shs shorted up +1.61M shs, +2.30%, over last 30 days & up +787K shs, +1.11%, last week. Shorts down -$23.82B in 2021 mark-to-market losses; down -$14.52B on today’s +137% move. pic.twitter.com/950IgjofyQ

  — Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3) January 27, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … which is actually the highest print in the past few days!

  

  What is perhaps even more stunning is that after the borrow fee on GME shorts was around 30.6% earlier this week…

  

  … it has since soared to 100% and in some cases as much as 250% for new shorts (existing shorts still pay “only” 30-50% borrow) according to Dusaniwsky. This means that it is now effectively suicidal to short GME (even if one can find the loaned shorts), as the cost of carrying the short is staggering, and it is equal to the nominal short every 5 months.

  Seeing some new stock borrows going at over 100% fee and even hitting 250% fee today. https://t.co/vQqMMx3hhj

  — Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3) January 27, 2021

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  The high stock borrow fees only hastens and amplifies the eventual short squeeze that may occur. https://t.co/OYzOBHpJKw

  — Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3) January 27, 2021

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  And while the exploding cost to borrow is catastrophic, the real punchline, as we noted earlier this week, is that the primary catalyst behind the initial WallStreetBets raid in the first place – the company’s massive short overhang – has not shrunk one bit (and has actually increased). In other words, as Dusaniwsky puts it, “This has been a long-buying rally and not a short squeeze rally!Panda face.”

  Translation: the real short covering hasn’t even started yet!

  It also means that the real parabolic move higher in GME has yet to come.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 23:58

• Biden Sends B-52 Bomber Over Persian Gulf After Missile Fired On Riyadh
  Biden Sends B-52 Bomber Over Persian Gulf After Missile Fired On Riyadh

  On Wednesday The Wall Street Journal revealed that the Biden administration for the first time sent a B-52 bomber in a long range flight from the US to the Persian Gulf on Tuesday.

  It’s the first such “warning” message to Iran under the Biden White House, in continuation of similar recent moves by Trump, and the sixth such B-52 operation over the Persian Gulf in only a few months. WSJ reports:

  The B-52H Stratofortress, a long range heavy bomber, flew from Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana on Tuesday and was expected to make a continuous flight across Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and down the eastern Saudi coastline near the United Arab Emirates and Qatar before returning to the U.S., a senior military official said.

  

  The official said further that “Our intent is to maintain that enduring defensive posture, to deter any aggression in the region, promote regional security and assure our allies.”

  Multiple Royal Saudi Arabian Air Force F-15 jets were seen escorting the bomber in photos posted by US CENTCOM.

  The provocative flyover appears to be in response to the two latest attacks on the Saudi capital of Riyadh. On Tuesday a ‘mystery’ inbound projectile, likely a missile, exploded over Riyadh’s city center when it was reportedly intercepted by Saudi anti-air defense systems.

  It followed a prior Saturday projectile fired at the city from outside the country, widely reported to have been a drone, which also seems to have been shot down before doing any damage.

  #BREAKING: In the first such flight under Biden, the Pentagon sent a B-52 bomber across the Persian Gulf region on Tuesday, the sixth such sortie since last fall, in a show of deterrence to #Iran. Comes after the two attempted attacks in Riyadh.https://t.co/YaQvPvFMSj

  — Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) January 27, 2021

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  Yemen’s Houthis have denied being behind either attack while at the same time speculation grows over the possibility that Iran-backed militias in Iraq are to blame, as WSJ describes further:

  The coalition blamed the attack on the Houthis, who denied responsibility, and the U.S. also implied they were to blame. A previously unknown group called “True Promise Brigades” that purports to be based in Iraq distributed a statement on Telegram claiming it had targeted Yamama Palace and other sites in Riyadh in retaliation to alleged Saudi support for Islamic State.

  The inbound projectile caused all flights at Riyadh’s international airport to be grounded for hours late into the day Tuesday.

  Yemen’s Houthis have in past years launched missile attacks on both the capital and Saudi Aramco facilities, most famously in the September 2019 Abqaiq–Khurais attack. In the last weeks of the Trump administration the Houthis were designated as an official terror organization, something the Biden administration is now reviewing.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 23:40

• Most Shorted Names Soar After WallStreetBets Reopens
  Most Shorted Names Soar After WallStreetBets Reopens

  Update 745pm ET: And just like that, 1 hour after reddit locked down its notorious r/WallStreetBets forum, it has returned, and not only that but the chaos over recent events just assured that tomorrow it will have a record day in new members.

  

  The forum’s return came shortly after another notorious daytrader, Dave Portnoy vowed revenge for the downing of the portal, and in addition to revealing that he owns $1MM of AMC and NOK and may buy more, said that tomorrow would be the biggest day yet.

  Emergency Press Conference – The Suits Shut Down @wallstreetbets @WSBChairman My prediction is tomorrow will be intergalactic for $amc $gme $nok

  (Im not a financial adviser. Don’t listen to me) pic.twitter.com/oYrsPOz8Vx

  — Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) January 28, 2021

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  More importantly, however, after tumbling earlier following the news of WSB’s lockdown, the most shorted stocks have again exploded higher with GME surging from a low of $220 back to $300…

  

  … and AMC last trading at almost $15 after dropping as low as $11 earlier.

  

   

  * * *

  Update 645pm ET: The infamous r/WallStreetBets subreddit which destroyed at least one hedge funds. and even cost legendary trader Steve Cohen 10-15% in losses in January…

  • COHEN’S POINT72 LOSES 10-15% AMID HEDGE FUND LOSSES THIS MONTH

  … has “gone private”, which means that only people who are invited can join.

  

  The move comes just moments after we showed that today was an absolute record day for WSB, which had a whopping 800,000 people join it in one day, the equivalent of $1.1 billion in stimmy checks..

  

  And since it will be that much more difficult to bring new entrants to the forum, it is hardly a surprise that the most shorted stocks which exploded in recent days, are suddenly tumbling with GME down almost $100 after hours on the news…

  

  … and AMC is tumbling too.

  

  So it is over? We doubt it: while the original subreddit may well have enough critical mass to continue its bull raids for the time being, it’s only a matter of time before the members regroup and find a venue that welcomes them.

  Maybe Parler?

  To be sure, the “autists” are not happy, and have a simple message: “FUCK WALL STREET, FUCK THE SHORTS.”

  

  * *  *

  Update 625pm ET: Until now, the only sure way to be shut down by a silicon valley tech titan was to be a conservative website or twitter account. Not anymore: as of this evening, the wrath of the tech giants has converged with that of the largest US hedge funds, and according to The Verge, Discord has banned the server of the r/WallStreetBets subreddit.

  Discord told the Verge it did not ban the server for financial fraud (because there was none)  but rather because it continued to allow “hateful and discriminatory content after repeated warnings” which of course is not only laughable, but has become the generic excuse of Wall Street titans to shut down anyone they don’t want “polluting” the internet airwaves which it now appears a handful of billionaires decide who can and who can’t be on.

  One wonders which hedge fund – Citadel or Point72 – made a quick call to the Discord board to make sure the massive short ramps cease.

  Here is Discord’s full statement:

  The server has been on our Trust & Safety team’s radar for some time due to occasional content that violates our Community Guidelines, including hate speech, glorifying violence, and spreading misinformation. Over the past few months, we have issued multiple warnings to the server admin.

  Today, we decided to remove the server and its owner from Discord for continuing to allow hateful and discriminatory content after repeated warnings.

  To be clear, we did not ban this server due to financial fraud related to GameStop or other stocks. Discord welcomes a broad variety of personal finance discussions, from investment clubs and day traders to college students and professional financial advisors. We are monitoring this situation and in the event there are allegations of illegal activities, we will cooperate with authorities as appropriate.

  The question now is whether reddit will do the same to r/Wallstreetbets as it did to r/Donaldtrump and bans it and, if so, does it mean that any young enterprising trader is just as bad as the MAGArs in the eyes of the tech establishment.

  * * *

  Update 5:55pm ET: In a day when regulators, brokerages, and even the administration launched a full-court press to halt the marketwide short squeezes launched by Robinhood daytraders armed with stimmy checks and inspired by Reddit’s forums – because a few hedge funds complained or were put out of business – Reddit’s infamous WallStreetBets, the alleged origin of many of these bull raids, has published a response to the SEC. We present it without commentary.

  “To the SEC retards in this sub: go fuck yourself. Why don’t you start investigating why companies can shut down trading so their hedge fund buddies don’t lose money. But when people lose money it’s completely okay. Eat a dick,” r/WallStreetBets said, which has already garnered 122k upvotes. 

  

  Reddit users of r/WallStreetBets were apparently trashed all day by CNBC hosts and guests, with some calling average retail investors “unsophisticated.” Well, if they were so “unsophisticated,” then the question begs, how did a bunch of millennials on the Reddit forum unleash one of the biggest “mother of all short squeezes,” and during the process, blow up multiple hedge funds who were overleveraged in Gamestop short positions. 

  One Reddit user said, “SEC I have proof of malfeasance. A group of hedge funds shorted the ever-living fuck out of GME putting themselves in this position. What repercussions should they face? Or is it because they’re somehow better than retail investors they shouldn’t face any penalties? We. Like. The. Stock.” 

  “Hedge funds simply got cocky and made the incredibly idiotic move of reaching 140% shorts in a stock. If we hadn’t seen that, someone else would and the result would be the same. Because that’s obviously going to bite you in the ass. There’s nothing coordinated or sophisticated about it. It’s legit dumber than anything I’ve ever seen in this sub and I’ve been here a while,” another Reddit user said. 

  But, “what it?” Well, the following post by the so-called WSB chairman (with 190K followed), and which was liked by Elon Musk, reveals the thinking of what happens next…

  

  * * *

  Earlier:

  Just hours after Jen Psaki informed the world that Joe Biden is closely tracking the turmoil in the most shorted stocks…

  

  … The SEC released a statement Wednesday after-hours echoing Uncle Jone, that it too was closely following the insanity in the market.

  “We are aware of and actively monitoring the on-going market volatility in the options and equities markets and, consistent with our mission to protect investors and maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets, we are working with our fellow regulators to assess the situation and review the activities of regulated entities, financial intermediaries, and other market participants,” Acting Chair Allison Herren Lee Pete Driscoll, Director, Division of Examinations Christian Sabella, Acting Director, Division of Trading and Markets wrote in a statement. 

  

  While the SEC’s did not mention individual company names, it was clear that the the was referring to the monster moves in the various most shorted names, including the extensively discussed explosions in Gamestop, AMC, BlackBerry Limited and countless other shorts which r/Wallstreetbets went after in hopes of forcing short squeezes.

  

  GameStop’s parabolic rise – which has become a poster child of all that is wrong with this bubble market – is a clear reminder of the Dot Com bubble insanity. Even fund manager Michael Burry who was long Gamestop, called the move “unnatural, insane, and dangerous.”

  Sure enough, in a hint of what may be coming, overnight William Galvin, Massachusetts’ top securities regulator, said today that Gamestop trading could suggest something is “systemically wrong” with the market. Around midday, TD Ameritrade told clients that it would impose restrictions on certain trades involding GME, AMC and other stocks…

  

  … ahead of what may be a marketwide halt in trading in these names as hedge funds come crying to mommy.

  Already some industry watchers are speculating that it is only a matter of time before Reddit will be subpoenaed to explain how a bunch of teenagers destroyed a hedge fund.

  The subpoenas will be for the purpose of doxing r/WSB posters, not for anything Reddit has done. https://t.co/Imj5GF9pCz

  — Preston Byrne (@prestonjbyrne) January 27, 2021

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  Also earlier, the CEO of Nasdaq, Adena Friedman, suggest a halt to trading to allow big investors to “recalibrate their positions’ to combat reddit users

  Nasdaq CEO Suggests Halt to Trading to Allow Big Investors to ‘Recalibrate Their Positions’ to Combat Reddit Users https://t.co/UymE6bfuT2

  — Mediaite (@Mediaite) January 27, 2021

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  Then again, the ramp may continue for a while because after being asked explicitly on at least two occasions, uberprinter Jerome Powell refused to answer questions related to Gamestop’s parabolic rise, suggesting that the bubble is only going to get bigger.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 23:30

• Coexistence Or Cold War with China?
  Coexistence Or Cold War with China?

  Authored by Pat Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

  “The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States… does not challenge that position.”

  Thus did President Nixon, in the Shanghai Communique of 1972, accept China’s territorial claim to the island of Taiwan.

  In 1979, Jimmy Carter severed relations with Taiwan, recognized Beijing as the legitimate government and dissolved the U.S. mutual security treaty with the Republic of China on Taiwan. We ceased to be obligated to go to war to defend Taiwan.

  Fast-forward four decades to the first weekend of President Joe Biden’s administration. Saturday, China sent eight nuclear-capable bombers and four fighter planes into the air defense identification zone of Taiwan.

  Sunday, Beijing sent 16 military aircraft into the same region.

  Observing U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and visits by U.S. officials, China is issuing us a reminder:

  “You Americans are encouraging those on the island who seek independence. Not going to happen. Rather than let Taiwan go, we will fight. Taiwan is a part of China and is a red line for us.”

  Beijing is said to be seeking a face-to-face meeting with Biden.

  Why? Perhaps because incoming Secretary of State Antony Blinken in his confirmation hearings said that President Donald Trump “was right” to take a “tougher approach to China.”

  Blinken also agreed with outgoing Secretary Mike Pompeo, who had called China’s treatment of its Uighur minority “genocide,” and added that our commitment to Taiwan is “something that we hold to very strongly.”

  Under Xi Jinping, said Blinken, China seeks to “become the leading country in the world — the country that sets the norms, that sets the standards.” In short, China’s geostrategic goal is to replace the U.S.-created world order with a new world order of its own.

  

  Before we proceed further down this road to collision, questions need to be answered.

  To whom does Taiwan belong? If the answer is what it has been since 1972 — “Taiwan is a part of China” — then is not encouraging the 25 million Taiwanese to seek independence an “incitement to insurrection” from Beijing’s standpoint? And if China uses force to compel Taiwan to repudiate any right to independence, are we prepared to fight a war with a nuclear-armed China over the island’s political status and orientation?

  When Chinese Communists in 1950 conquered Tibet and began its ethnic and cultural cleansing of the region, what did we do?

  Basically, nothing.

  When China occupied and fortified rocks and reefs across the South China Sea what did we do?

  Basically, nothing.

  When China crushed the Hong Kong democracy protests we encouraged, and imposed a new national security law on the island’s 7 million people, what did we do?

  Basically, nothing.

  Now, Xi Jinping has bluntly told America that how China treats Tibetans, Uighurs, Christians and Falun Gong, all citizens of China, is no more the business of the United States than was our treatment of the indigenous peoples of North America the business of Imperial China.

  China’s model of political and economic development has enjoyed success in this century as an alternative to the Western model of liberal democracy.

  Beijing does not believe in untrammeled freedom of religion, or of speech, or of the press. She does not believe in choosing leaders by the ballot box.

  China is not an egalitarian society. She does not believe in the equality of all races, religions and ethnic groups. She does not celebrate diversity but fears it, seeing what ethnic diversity did to the Soviet Union, tearing it apart into 15 nations.

  She does not believe in racial quotas for advancement, but in a meritocracy that rewards loyalty and performance. And Chinese student test scores are among the highest in the world.

  While China steals intellectual property from U.S. factories in China, who moved the factories there to take advantage of cheap labor where a worker could be hired for $2 an hour?

  Beijing says any attempt to impose our “universal values” on China would amount to interference in her internal affairs. And any attempt to sever from Beijing her jurisdiction over Taiwan or the Spratly or Paracel Islands in the South China Sea will be resisted by force.

  Moreover, as none of the disputed rocks and reefs in the South and East China Seas involves any territory claimed by the U.S., and we have conceded for 50 years that Taiwan is “part of China,” why are we sending carrier battle groups into these seas and through the Taiwan Strait?

  What are we threatening?

  On Sunday, a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group, led by the USS Theodore Roosevelt sailed into the South China Sea on a “freedom of navigation” exercise, the first such operation under President Biden.

  This was the same day that those Chinese bombers and fighters flew into Taiwan’s air identification zone. We need to talk.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 23:20

• Meanwhile In China, Giant Liquidity Shortage Pushes Overnight Rates To 5 Year High
  Meanwhile In China, Giant Liquidity Shortage Pushes Overnight Rates To 5 Year High

  One day after we reported that China’s overnight money market rate jumped to the highest in 15 months amid i) continued drainage of liquidity by the PBOC and ii) a warning by a PBOC advisor that asset bubbles have formed in the stock and property markets, China’s overnight repo spiked even higher, surging to its highest since March 2015, as investor jitters over liquidity mounted due to the central bank’s accelerating withdrawals.

  

  The overnight repurchase rate rose 23 bps to 3% on Wednesday and a further 4bps to 3.04% on Thursday, taking the increase this week to 59 basis points.

  Such increases in January – just ahead of the liquidity-heavy Lunar New Year – are anomalous. As Bloomberg notes, “China’s money-market rates are rising fast in January, defying a seasonal pattern of decreases, amid concerns over monetary tightening.

  The seven-day repo fixing rate has risen 50bps this month, the first January to see an increase since 2011 when the rate jumped only to fall back in February. The mainland’s money rates typically tend to rise into the Lunar New Year break which begins in mid-February this year.

  The sudden spike in funding costs took place after the People’s Bank of China drained a net 100 billion yuan from the financial system on Wednesday via open-market operations, the most in two weeks, a day after removing 78 billion yuan. It then followed this up with an even bigger drain on Thursday, when it withdrew another 150bn yuan, the largest such amount since October..

  

  The accelerating liquidity drains – which have hammered Chinese stocks – prompted concerns among the investing community that Beijing just may be serious about its deleveraging push in 2021, a year after China injected record amount of debt into the economy to stabilize it in the aftermath of the covid pandemic.

  Investors are also waiting to see how the PBOC handles the banking system’s need for funding before the week-long Lunar New Year holiday starts Feb. 11 because individuals and companies across the country will prepare cash for gifts and travel. The central bank might offer liquidity via its one-year medium-term lending facility and match the 200 billion yuan of MLF coming due on Feb. 18 even before the holiday, said Dariusz Kowalczyk, strategist at Credit Agricole CIB.

  “Investors are preparing for a prolonged period of higher funding costs,” he said. “The PBOC has drained a lot of cash this week despite the high funding costs.” MLF operations are usually handled on the 15th of every month.

  In an attempt to ease concerns, on Tuesday PBOC Governor Yi Gang said at a panel hosted by the World Economic Forum that China won’t “prematurely” exit from its supportive monetary policies while also keeping debt risks under control. Still, financial markets were roiled after the central bank drained liquidity on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday and central bank adviser Ma Jun warned about asset bubbles.

  “Clearly, the market was very disappointed by the liquidity withdrawal over the past two sessions,” said Zhou Hao, an economist at Commerzbank AG. Ma’s comments also intensified concern over a faster pace of monetary policy normalization, he added.

  Meanwhile, as Chinese bankers desperately await a liquidity injection, halfway around the world, reddit “autists” are taking on some of the most respected hedge funds – and winning – because there are trillions in excess liquidity sloshing around…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 23:06

• Walmart To Build More Robo-Warehouses As Amazon Fight Intensifies  
  Walmart To Build More Robo-Warehouses As Amazon Fight Intensifies  

  It’s no secret that Walmart is gearing up for a lengthy fight against rival Amazon. 

  Walmart’s competitive advantages are their stores – and to complete last-mile deliveries, they must create local fulfillment centers  (LFC) with extensive automation to keep up with a surge in online orders. 

  Walmart’s Tom Ward, SVP of Customer Product, published a blog post on the company’s website outlining how LFCs, a modular warehouse added to an existing store, will be automated and stocked with additional items that are popular with customers. 

  Ward explains how LFCs work: 

  “Instead of an associate walking the store to fulfill an order from our shelves, automated bots retrieve the items from within the fulfillment center. The items are then brought to a picking workstation, where the order can be assembled with speed.

  We’ve always said personal shoppers are the secret to our pickup and delivery success, and that remains true. So, while the system retrieves the order for assembly, a personal shopper handpicks fresh items like produce, meat and seafood, and large general merchandise from the sales floor.

  Once the order is collected, the system stores it until it’s ready for pickup. This whole process can take just a few minutes from the time the order is placed to the time it’s ready for a customer or delivery driver to collect,” he wrote. 

  LFCs can store thousands of popular items, from consumables to electronics to fresh and frozen items.

  

  In Salem, New Hampshire, a Walmart store began an LFC pilot test in late 2019. Ward explained the “technology is impressive.” 

  He lists several reasons why LFCs are game-changing technology and will give Amazon a run for its money: 

  • More availability: We are able to pick more orders and do it quicker, creating more availability for customers.
  • Faster fulfillment: The system’s speed can allow orders to be picked up or delivered within the hour.
  • Greater efficiency: One local fulfillment center can fulfill orders for many stores, which means its benefits can be felt by customers in stores nearby.

  Ward adds some stores will be outfitted with automated drive-throughs. He said, “think of it as the ultimate convenience that allows customers and delivery drivers to drive up, scan a code, grab their order and go!” 

  

  In another redesign, this time within stores, Walmart reformated the inside layout to appear more like airports to make the shopping experiencing easier. 

  This decade will decide who comes out on top if that is Amazon or Walmart. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 23:00

• US Weighing Action Against Russia For Navalny Detention: Secretary Of State Blinken
  US Weighing Action Against Russia For Navalny Detention: Secretary Of State Blinken

  A day after the Senate confirmed President Biden’s nominee, veteran diplomat Antony Blinken, as the secretary of state, Blinken gave his first press conference Wednesday afternoon.

  Revealing where Biden’s foreign policy emphasis will be over the coming months, he came out swinging against Putin (who else?) and Russia (in addition to mention of Iran and China in the course of the briefing), voicing that the US is “deeply concerned” about jailed opposition activist and politician Alexei Navalny.

  Blinken said the US administration is now mulling “actions in response to his detention in Russia,” according to Reuters. He highlighted continued concerns for Navalny’s “security and safety”.

  

  To review, Navalny is serving a 30-day jail sentence for skipping probation related to a 2014 criminal conviction. He recently returned to Moscow from Berlin where he had been recovering from an alleged nerve agent poisoning in August. He and German investigators have claimed it was part of a Russian intelligence assassination attempt on orders from Putin, with the Russian president brushing off the accusations given Navalny is “not important enough” to be a target of state security and intelligence services. Navalny is now urging his supporters to the streets in defiance of the government.

  “We have a deep concern for Mr. Navalny’s safety and security and the larger point is that his voice is the voice of many, many, many Russians and it should be heard, not muzzled,” Blinken said in his statements, also noting the US is not ruling out any punitive action on the table.

  He further said he finds it striking that the Putin government is so “frightened of one man, Mr. Navalny” – in an echo of earlier comments he made. Blinken said in the press briefing:

  “It remains striking to me how concerned and maybe even scared the Russian government seems to be of one man, Mr. Navalny.”

  He said the Biden White House is closely watching the human rights situation inside Russia, following Saturday protests where hundreds were reportedly detained in demonstrations and clashes with police which were deemed ‘unauthorized’.

  Meanwhile the Russia hawks are already talking “options”:

  An option for the US government, “would be to fully sanction Russian sovereign debt or financial institutions tied to Putin…options have been available for years, and the attempted assassination and arrest of Navalny might be good reason to invoke them.” https://t.co/mIm5q2zikT

  — John Sipher (@john_sipher) January 27, 2021

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  Blinken also raised other Russia-related issues being closely watched, as Reuters summarizes: “Blinken said at his first press briefing after being sworn in that the Biden administration was reviewing how to respond to actions by Russia, including the alleged use of chemical weapons in an attack on Navalny, the Solar Winds cyber attack, reports of bounties on American forces and interference in U.S. elections.”

  The day prior, President Biden had raised these issues in a phone call with Putin; however, details in terms of the Russian leader’s response were not forthcoming.

  * * *

  Here’s the full Wednesday press briefing:

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 22:40

• Biden Freezes Arms Sales To Saudis & UAE, Including Large F-35 Jet Transfer
  Biden Freezes Arms Sales To Saudis & UAE, Including Large F-35 Jet Transfer

  On Wednesday the Biden administration issued a freeze of all US arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates at a moment Congressional scrutiny of America’s support to the Saudi-led coalition waging war in Yemen grows. US involvement in the war goes all the way back to the Obama administration, with Trump also in the last months of his presidency approving billions in new arms sales to the kingdom.

  In particular Lockheed Martin produced F-35 stealth fighters that were set to be transferred to the UAE the have been “temporarily” blocked along with munitions to the Saudis, among other sales. Prior reports suggested the prior Trump deal was to send as many as 50 advanced F-35 fighters to the UAE.

  

  The AP cited officials who identified “that among the deals being paused is a massive $23 billion transfer of stealth F-35 fighters to the United Arab Emirates.”

  “That sale and several other massive purchases of U.S. weaponry by Gulf Arab countries had been harshly criticized by Democrats in Congress,” the report added.

  The State Department said of the “temporary pause” that it is “temporarily pausing the implementation of some pending U.S. defense transfers and sales under Foreign Military Sales and Direct Commercial Sales to allow incoming leadership an opportunity to review.”

  And Axios further details that “The sales of F-35 jets and attack drones to the UAE and a large supply of munitions to Saudi Arabia will be paused pending a review.” It added that it “signals a major policy shift from the Trump era, and may herald sharp tensions with both Gulf countries.”

  If this move stays real and permanent, it will be a good and potentially important decision by the new administration.

  But time will tell: https://t.co/SB7De8f3YJ

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) January 27, 2021

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  In response the UAE appealed to the need for “interoperability” with US forces in the Gulf while underscoring the close military cooperation as a reliable partner force:

  “With the same equipment and training, US and UAE forces are more effective together when and where it matters.” (7/7)

  — UAE Embassy US (@UAEEmbassyUS) January 27, 2021

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  So far the Saudis have had no comment after the somewhat expected move, which also follows Biden previously on the campaign trail vowing to get tougher on the “pariah” state, as he called the kingdom during a debate.

  Months ago an attempt in the Senate led by New Jersey Democrat Bob Menendez to block Trump arms sales to the Saudis was narrowly defeated.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 22:20

• 20% Of The World Could Have Digital Cash In Three Years: BIS
  20% Of The World Could Have Digital Cash In Three Years: BIS

  While most traders and finance pros are distracted by the ongoing war between Wall Street and Wall Street Bets which sparked market moves and short squeezes which until last week were viewed as unthinkable, we should remember that for all its entertainment value the crusade of a few millions GenZers is a sideshow which can be shut down with the flick of a switch.

  Indeed, tonight’s main event, which saw the most heavily shorted stocks tumble the moment the r/WallStreetBets subreddit went dark (or rather “private”) only to rebound once the forum reemerged, demonstrated just how easy it is for both Silicon Valley and Wall Street to silence these upstart voices and return to market to “normal.” And all they have to do is to claim that there is “hate speech” on the forum – a truly shocking discovery within the testosterone-heavy world of male traders – as Discord did when it shut down the WSB server earlier today.

  In any case, while we all keep an eye on what Gamestop does next, we should always remember that the people in charge are those that print the money, namely the world’s central banks. And today, in all the chaos surrounding the latest most shorted meltups, there was some critical news which most missed yet which will have far greater consequences on the future of the world then where GME closes tomorrow.

  According to a survey conducted by the central banks’ central bank, the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements (profiled in “Meet The Secretive Group That Runs The World“), central banks representing one-fifth of the world’s population are likely to issue their own digital currencies in the next three years.

  The push for digital currencies – which as we – and DoubleLine – explained last year is the final move in the radical overhaul to the established monetary system and which will unleash far higher inflation – comes as authorities look to fend off the threat to their money-printing powers from bitcoin and efforts linked to Big Tech such as the Facebook-backed Diem, formerly Libra. In fact, just today, Agustin Carstens, the general manager of the BIS – condemned bitcoin as “a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster” and said it was “piggybacking” on mainstream institutions and becoming a “threat to financial stability”, an attempt to demonize Bitcoin as if it is somehow worse than central banking itself.

  At the same time, central banks who have taken interest rates negative are looking at whether digital cash could be used to help implement the radical policy. Because in a world with trillions in paper money, the easiest way to circumvent punitive interest rates is simply to hold cash in one’s safe. Digital currencies would promptly do away with that.

  As Reuters reports, Wednesday’s BIS survey of 65 central banks showed 86% were exploring the benefits and drawbacks of digital currencies, with some testing possible designs. Translation: we are just years away from global implementation.

  

  And while the survey showed that emerging and developing economy central banks are more likely than those in major economies to issue central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), the reality is that it is precisely the developed nations whose central banks are desperate for “blockchained” control over currency in circulation, and its digitalization, especially when another massive stimulus has to be unleashed. As we explained previously, such a digital deposit of dollars – which would circumvent the Treasury (and Congress) – by the Fed, is precisely what central banks hope to enact after the next financial crisis in order to spark a reflationary wave.

  Indeed, as the survey also showed a number of bigger countries have also been testing the waters, with China the most advanced.

  A fifth of central banks from major economies that responded to the survey said issuing digital currencies was “possible” in the short or medium term, up from only one last year. Expect this number to rise to 100% in the coming months.

  

  Meanwhile, as we reported last year, the People’s Bank of China expanded a trial of a digital renminbi to its three largest urban regions, which together contain 400 million people, in August. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week her bank was pushing on with its work on a digital euro, Sweden’s E-Krona is progressing and even Jerome Powell has said the Fed is carrying out experiments for a digital dollar.

  To be sure, there are still hurdles to overcome, first and foremost the widespread resistance that would emerge once central banks declare paper currency void.

  The BIS survey also showed that over a quarter of central banks do not currently have the authority to issue a CBDC and about 48% remain unsure, although both those numbers can easily move higher if the need was there. Separately, around 60% of banks see themselves as unlikely to issue any type of digital currency in the short or medium-term.

  As a whole, though, “central banks are moving into more advanced stages of CBDC engagement, progressing from conceptual research to practical experimentation,” the survey said.

  

  And while we wait for the catalyst that moves the global economy into a digital payment format, last October the Bahamas became the first country to launch a general purpose CBDC, known as the Sand Dollar. Many others will follow suit.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 21:57

• FDA Issues "Import Alert" On Potentially Deadly Mexican Hand Sanitizer 
  FDA Issues “Import Alert” On Potentially Deadly Mexican Hand Sanitizer 

  The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a rare “import alert” Tuesday on alcohol-based hand sanitizers originating from Mexico that could potentially be hazardous to the health and safety of US consumers. 

  Last summer, the FDA began to issue warnings for consumers about counterfeit hand sanitizers from Mexico. Since the notice, an analysis completed by the agency found 84% of the hand sanitizers imported from the country were not in compliance with US standards. 

  

  Even though many of the products “were labeled to contain ethanol (also known as ethyl alcohol) but tested positive for methanol contamination, methanol, or wood alcohol, is a substance that can be toxic when absorbed through the skin and life-threatening when ingested,” the FDA statement read. 

  The import alert has allowed the FDA to heavily scrutinize and detain hand sanitizer shipments from Mexico if need be. 

  “Consumer use of hand sanitizers has increased significantly during the coronavirus pandemic, especially when soap and water are not accessible, and the availability of poor-quality products with dangerous and unacceptable ingredients will not be tolerated,” said Judy McMeekin, Pharm.D., FDA Associate Commissioner for Regulatory Affairs. 

  McMeekin continued: “Today’s actions are necessary to protect the safe supply of alcohol-based hand sanitizers. We will continue to work with our stakeholders to ensure the availability of safe products and to communicate vital information with the health and safety of US consumers in mind.” 

  The FDA warned the potentially deadly Mexican hand sanitizer could cause “nausea, vomiting, headache, blurred vision, permanent blindness, seizures, coma, permanent damage to the nervous system or death.”

  What needs to be asked is if nefarious actions by entities in Mexico purposely manufactured deadly hand sanitizer to poison Americans?

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 21:40

• Biden Signs Executive Order To Ban The Term 'China Virus'
  Biden Signs Executive Order To Ban The Term ‘China Virus’

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  The latest of Joe Biden’s THIRTY SEVEN executive orders signed in the first week of his presidency states that the term ‘Chinese virus’ or ‘China virus’ is now banned.

  

  Yes, this is real.

  The White House website confirms that Biden signed this EO.

  CBS News reported ‘Biden to address racism toward Asian Americans during pandemic with executive action’.

  The report notes that “The Biden executive order is also expected to direct federal agencies like the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to examine whether there are xenophobic references like “China virus” in any existing policies, directives or government websites published by the Trump administration.”

  NBC News lists all the executive actions Biden has instigated thus far, with the last being the ban on the term ‘China Virus’. The report notes that “additionally, the order directed the attorney general to work to prevent discrimination and hate crimes.”

  Given that literally anything is now being touted as a ‘hate crime’, that could mean banning or canceling absolutely everyone and everything.

  As we noted earlier, Biden admitted back in October that anyone who legislates by executive order should be considered ‘a dictator’.

  Biden appears not to know what he is actually signing, and can barely hold the pen:

  After managing to stuff the pen in his pants, Biden then babbled on about the wearing of face masks, for which he has already issued multiple executive mandates.

  Biden said that a Congressman told him to “kiss my ear, I’m not wearing a mask”.

  BIDEN: “One Congressman pointed out– he used a very color term to say– wearing a mask, I tell them to ‘kiss my ear.’ I’m not wearing a mask. Well guess what, not very American.” pic.twitter.com/FIfvJ0zLbT

  — Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) January 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 21:20

• US COVID Cases Tumble Across The West & South
  US COVID Cases Tumble Across The West & South

  In the last few days – really since the BIden inauguration – we have seen declarations of victory over covid across the board, from the likes of Dr. Fauci who yesterday said that coronavirus infections may be about to hit a “plateau“, to Wall Street, where Bank of America yesterday declared “The Beginning Of The End Of The COVID Crisis.” Then, last week, we asked if it was “almost over” when the US saw a record one-day drop in covid hospitalizations.

  Today, we got further confirmation that the inauguration of Biden was magically just the event that was needed to put covid in the rear-view mirror: as Bloomberg reports, almost every state in the West reported cases falling or flat Tuesday, and every region in the US has seen its seven-day average drop at least 20% since Jan. 12.

  

  When was the peak day? Why just around the day Joe Biden walked into the White House.

  Some states, like California and Oregon, saw their numbers drop by more than one-third in the course of the past week. Such improvements inspired California Gov. Newsom to ease social-distancing measures earlier this week. The relaxed policies, combined with more-contagious strains gaining traction in the state, could lay the groundwork for numbers to spike again.

  Among US regions, the South, where the seven-day average ticked down 24% over the last two weeks, improved the least. The significant decrease, which has lasted longer than any since the summer, came off a high peak. The South continues to see the highest caseload, and new infections there accounted for half the national total Tuesday. Numbers this month may also be overstated, reflecting catch.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 20:53

• Biden Chief Of Staff Offers Support For Teachers' Unions Refusing To Reopen Schools
  Biden Chief Of Staff Offers Support For Teachers’ Unions Refusing To Reopen Schools

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

  President Joe Biden’s chief of staff on Tuesday backed teachers’ unions that are refusing to return to schools for in-person learning, contradicting studies that show little virus transmission is taking place inside schools.

  

  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) officials have repeatedly said it’s safe to reopen schools. Former Director Robert Redfield said last year schools never should have shut down. Officials said Tuesday in a journal article that “there has been little evidence that schools have contributed meaningfully to increased community transmission” of the virus, which causes COVID-19.

  But teachers’ unions across the United States are refusing to resume in-person learning, claiming teachers would be in danger.

  In the most high-profile case, the Chicago Teachers Union is battling with the city of Chicago, which attempted to resume in-person classes on Monday. The union claims conditions aren’t right and in a blog post on Tuesday, urged its members to work from home on Wednesday. If the city retaliates, it said, a strike will be held.

  Biden campaigned on dealing with the CCP virus pandemic. He vowed to spearhead the reopening of schools.

  Asked why so many public schools remain closed, his chief of staff Ron Klain said it was a funding issue.

  

  Teachers Adrienne Thomas (L) and Irene Barrera set up their computers and materials for their virtual classes outside of Suder Montessori Magnet Elementary School in solidarity with pre-K educators forced back into the building in Chicago, Ill., on Jan. 11, 2021. (Anthony Vazquez/Chicago Sun-Times via AP

  “That’s why the president of the United States sent a plan to Congress even before he took office to make the investments you need to make the schools safe,” Klain said during an appearance on CNN’s “Erin Burnett OutFront,” referring to Biden’s $1.9 trillion proposal that includes a number of measures such as a minimum wage hike.

  Biden, in remarks at the White House on Tuesday, called for Congress to pass the proposal “to help schools and businesses reopen.”

  A study published Tuesday showed few CCP virus outbreaks related to classroom settings being seen in rural schools in Wisconsin that reopened. But those schools received “sizable grants” that enabled them to set small classroom sizes and implement other safety measures, Klain argued.

  “In other states, we haven’t seen those kinds of investments. President Biden has sent a plan to Congress that will make sure that the majority of our schools can be reopened in 100 days. We need Congress to pass that plan so that we can do the kind of things you need to do so that the schools can be safe, so the students can be safe, so the teachers can be safe. Sadly, it costs money,” Klain said.

  When the host pushed back and pointed to Chicago, asking why the union seemed to be going against what studies show, he added:

  “I don’t think that teachers’ unions are overruling studies. I think that what you’re seeing [is] that schools haven’t made the investments to keep the students safe. I mean, again, the Wisconsin study were classrooms of 12 on average. So that requires a lot more classrooms, a lot more teachers, or, you know, other kinds of arrangements to get them small, podding students very carefully.”

  “So we need to do the things to open safely. Most of the teachers I talk to, they want to be back in the classroom. They just want to know that it’s safe and we as a country should make the investments to make it safe,” Klain added.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 20:40

• Did America's Anti-Cop Movement Lead To Largest Homicide Increase In US History?
  Did America’s Anti-Cop Movement Lead To Largest Homicide Increase In US History?

  Did America’s ‘defund the police’ movement result in the largest percentage increase in homicides in US history? Heather Mac Donald, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute and author of “The War On Cops” makes a strong argument that it likely did.

  

  In a Sunday Wall Street Journal op-ed, Mac Donald notes that 2020 ‘likely saw the largest percentage increase in homicides in American history,’ noting that murder was up almost 37% across a sample of 57 large and medium-size cities. According to preliminary figures, “at least 2,000 more Americans, most of them black, were killed in 2020 than 2019.”

  And while the establishment media is largely blaming the pandemic for the spike, Mac Donald says the chronology doesn’t support that assertion – and President Biden’s criminal-justice policies stand to exacerbate the ongoing crime wave while ignoring its causes.

  The local murder increases in 2020 were startling: 95% in Milwaukee, 78% in Louisville, Ky., 74% in Seattle, 72% in Minneapolis, 62% in New Orleans, and 58% in Atlanta, according to data compiled by crime analyst Jeff Asher. Dozens of children, overwhelmingly black, were killed in drive-by shootings. They were slain in their beds, living rooms and strollers. They were struck down at barbecues, in their yards, in malls, in their parents’ cars, and at birthday parties. Fifty-five children were killed in Chicago in 2020, 17 in St. Louis, and 11 in Philadelphia. In South Los Angeles alone, 40 children were shot, some non-lethally, through September. –WSJ

  The MSM, such as the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, suggested that the increase is due to the “economic, civic and interpersonal stress” caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot similarly blamed pandemic-related “frustration, anger … trauma and mental health challenges.” 

  However, this doesn’t square with the fact that crime actually fell during the first few months of the pandemic lockdowns – both domestically and abroad, only to reverse itself in May in the United States, “thanks to a surge in drive-by shootings.”

  On May 31 alone, 18 people were murdered in Chicago – the city’s most violent day in 60 years according to Paul Cassell, a law professor at the University of Utah. Elsewhere, American cities saw ‘similar spikes in mayhem, all tied to the street violence unleashed by the death of George Floyd,” a black man who died while in custody of the Minneapolis PD on May 25 after an officer knelt on his neck for over eight minutes, while having fentanyl and methamphetamine in his system – and being COVID-positive – at the time of his death.

  As Mac Donald writes, “The political and media response to Floyd’s death amplified the existing narrative that policing was lethally racist,” adding “The ensuing riots received little condemnation from Democratic leaders and a weak response from the criminal-justice system.“

  Since Floyd’s death, police have faced a ‘poisonous environment,’ having been shot in the head, firebombed, and assaulted with lethal projectiles. Those who attempt to provide aid in the field risk being pelted with rocks and bottles.

  

  One Oakland, California officer who has arrested ‘dozens of known murderers and gang members’ told Mac Donald that he’s scared for the first time, “not because the criminals are necessarily more violent, even though they are,” but because if he has to use force on a suspect, he stands to lose his job, his liberty or his life. A “simple cost-benefit analysis” would suggest the safest course of action for officers is to simply recall to calls for service and collect a paycheck.

  “All cops now understand this,” the officer said.

  One veteran Chicago detective said “Every day you have to decide whether to get out of your patrol car and do something or do nothing,” adding that if anyone attempts actual police work, they may end up in jail or without a job if things go sideways.

  “Proactive police work is dead,” said Police Lt. Bob Kroll of Minneapolis, where police stops fell by more than 50% over the summer. Elsewhere, such as Philadelphia, New York, Los Angeles, Oakland, Chicago and elsewhere, the number of police-civilian contacts have plummeted.

  Meanwhile, anti-gang units and other specialty units across the country which got guns off the street were disbanded due to having a ‘disparate impact on African-Americans,’ while police chiefs and prosecutors alike have refused to enforce low-level ‘quality-of-life’ laws for the same reason.

  As a result, “More gang members are carrying guns, since their chances of being stopped are slim. They are enthusiastically killing each other and innocent bystanders out of opportunism, not economic deprivation or existential angst.“

  Meanwhile, 2020’s violence has only accelerated into the new year – with shootings in South Los Angeles jumping 742% in the first two weeks of the year, while Oakland homicides were up 500% and shootings up 126% through Jan 17. Murders in New York have jumped 42% and shooting victims 15% during the same period, while carjackings in Chicago are up 135% in Chicago.

  On Jan. 16, a woman was pulled from her car in Aurora, Ill., and shot in the back by carjackers who had already stolen two vehicles earlier that day. Four other Chicago suburbs were hit that weekend. In Chicago proper, there have been 144 carjackings through Jan. 21, with 166 guns recovered. –WSJ

  President Biden, of course, is fanning the anti-cop flames – arguing during the campaign without justification that African-Americans ‘rightly feared that their loved ones could be killed by a cop every time they stepped outside.’ Now, his administration’s criminal-justice blueprint aims to get rid of racial disparities in law enforcement – which would eliminate much of law enforcement itself.

  Read the rest of the op-ed here.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 20:20

• Florida Man Arrested Over 2016 Election Memes Designed To "Trick" Hillary Voters
  Florida Man Arrested Over 2016 Election Memes Designed To “Trick” Hillary Voters

  A 31-year-old Florida man was arrested in West Palm Beach on Wednesday on federal charges that he conspired with several other people to use memes and social media platforms to trick Hillary Clinton voters into voting via text message, and that voting for Hillary would mean people’s daughters would be drafted to fight establishment resource wars under a Clinton presidency.

  

  Douglass Mackey, a.k.a. “Ricky Vaughn,” faces up to 10 years in prison for ‘spreading election disinformation’ using several Twitter accounts, one of which had approximately 58,000 followers before Twitter suspended him on November 2, 2016.

  According to the Biden Department of Justice:

  “Starting in at least 2015, MACKEY participated in numerous Group DMs. These groups, which at times included dozens of individuals, and at times had overlapping membership, served as forums for the participants to share, among other things, their views concerning how best to influence the Election. Among other things, MACKEY and the members of these groups used the Group DMs to create, refine and share memes and hashtags that members of the groups would subsequently post and distribute.“

  One of the memes featured a picture of a black woman accompanied by the text “Avoid the line. Vote from home. Text ‘Hillary’ to 59925. Vote for Hillary and be part of history.”

  

  BuzzFeed News reported sending a text to the number, to which Hillary Clinton’s campaign responded “The ad you saw was not approved by iVisionMobile OR Hillary for America in any way. To opt-in to the real HFL list, text HFA to 47246.”

  

  According to the indictment, at least 4,900 people texted Hillary’s first name to the number.

  We can’t help but wonder if this Twitter user will also be arrested for her nearly identical November 6, 2020 election video aimed at tricking Trump voters?

  Hi @TheJusticeDept! Have you seen this? https://t.co/aufQwrkDed

  — Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) January 27, 2021

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  Mackey also promoted another meme campaign before the election which was organized across several image board and social media platforms which conveyed the message that a vote for Clinton was a vote to send people’s daughters to war.

  

  

  Mackey is accused of conspiring with at least four other people – one of whom was identified as “Baked Alaska,” real name Tim Gionet, who was arrested earlier this month by the FBI for his involvement in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

  108465379- @bakedalaska – https://t.co/1G4djJyjYX
  779739206339928064- ?
  704041886089084928- possibly, @Mikefarb1 ‘UNHACKTHEVOTE’. Or- @nia4_trump ‘Νia☆TimeForUnity☆’ https://t.co/YQwTXVeevQ
  6091342 ?

  — (((Schlomo Moses))) (@MosesSchlomo) January 27, 2021

  Needless to say, conservatives need to watch what they say – or the opposition DOJ may come after you too for obvious political satire.

  CHILLING. This is utterly normal political behavior but—because you have been classified as an enemy of the state—even doing normal things are criminalized. https://t.co/qASlbIVyRy

  — David Reaboi (@davereaboi) January 27, 2021

  This is insane. Hillary Clinton paid a foreign operative to defraud the FBI, which then defrauded a federal court, to sway the 2016 election. No charges there. But a vile internet troll who peddled a dumb meme in 2016? That’s a federal crime in 2021. https://t.co/Rq322uMuTW

  — Sean Davis (@seanmdav) January 27, 2021

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  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 20:00

• Most Shorted Stocks Update: Here Come The Microcaps
  Most Shorted Stocks Update: Here Come The Microcaps

  Late on Friday, in what could be the most profitable post in our 12 year history, we hinted (since we are not “advisors”) to all those who had missed what we thought at the time was the “unprecedented” move in GME stock (which in retrospect was merely an appetizer to the main course which has since sent the stock 6x higher to $385 today) to look at all the other most shorted small cap companies in the Russell 3000 – specifically those with a short interest at 50% or more of float listed below….

  

  … and buy an equal-weighted basket of these, to wit:

  For those who wish to gamble their next stimmy check and frontrun the next reddit-raid, the best move would be to buy equal amounts of the 10 companies (ex GME) and just wait for the short squeeze panic to unroll. Yes, there is a risk that the entire stimmy will be lost, but that would require logic and fundamentals to matter again… and we just don’t see that happening any time soon.

  Just three trading days later, this basket has more than tripled in value. To all those who put it on, congratulations. 

  

  Of course, since then this trade has blown up, and in addition to just the most shorted stocks listed above we now know that at least one more hedge fund – Maplelane Capital – in addition to Melvin Capital (which blew up and only a bailout from Citadel and Point72 prevented a disaster), has been dragged into the fray, after we published its publicly disclosed puts last night, which has given retail traders an even broader universe of companies to squeeze.

  

  Which has brought up an interesting point: when looking at the most shorted names – based on some screening metric, like Short Interest as a % of Float for example – it depends which data source once uses. For example, in the table above we used CapitalIQ, a very useful service for doing quick screens.

  So to extend the possible list of short squeezes we decided to rerun the same screen of most shorted companies (this time without a market cap limit) but using Bloomberg instead of CapIQ.

  The results were interesting: while most companies from the two screens overlapped – including GME, BBY, ANC, FIZZ, DDS, GOGO, SRG and so on, there were also some even smaller companies that we never noticed initially…

  

  …. such as Saddle Ranch Media (SRMX) – whose stock costs one-hundredth of a nickel (probably for good reasons) and which “is a diversified media and entertainment company operating three divisions: Saddle Ranch Digital, Saddle Ranch Film, and Saddle Ranch TV”, and KYN Capital Group (KYNC) – a “capital-finance leasing company”  and both of which are pink sheet, microcap companies – the first has a market cap of just $9MM and, according to Bloomberg, a short-to-float ratio of 129%, or just below that of Gamespot…

  

  … while KYNC is a $15MM microcap, which according to BBG has an even more ridiculous 399% SI/Float ratio.

  

  As a note: these are certainly “worthless” stocks and are trading where they are trading for a reason… but as the events in the past few days have shown, none of that actually matters in a bubble where the only thing that does matter is flow of capital.

  Which begs the question: as the dash for (shorted) trash continues, and with r/wallstreetbets ravaging the usual “most shorted” suspects within the small cap Russell 3000 universe, is it about to move to the micro-cap pink sheets, where liquidity is even more non-existant and one squeeze raid can send a stock orders of magnitude higher than ever GME, and make anyone an overnight millionaire?

  We hope to find out shortly.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 19:44

• The Next Melvin? Maplelane Loses 33% On Shorts This Month, Steve Cohen Down 15%
  The Next Melvin? Maplelane Loses 33% On Shorts This Month, Steve Cohen Down 15%

  Yesterday, in the aftermath of the spectacular collapse of Melvin Capital which only exists because Citadel’s Ken Griffin and Point72’s SAC’s Steve Cohen gave it $2.75BN to pay for a margin call, we speculated that the option heavy, short-focused Maplelane Capital (established in 2010 by a former PM at the disgraced tech-focused hedge fund Galleon) and was full to the gills with puts on names that had exploded in recent days, could be the next major hedge fund to blow up.

  

  Today, Bloomberg read our article and reported that – as we expected – “Maplelane Capital, a $3.5 billion stock hedge fund, lost about 33% this month through Tuesday in part because of a short position on GameStop Corp., according to investors.”

  While we didn’t know the exact number, it’s clear that it would be bad.

  What follows is speculation that despite the massive loss, “the firm significantly altered its portfolio in recent weeks, adjusting risk, one of the people said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. Those changes helped protect against further losses, and the firm has no liquidity or margin issues.”

  Right… a 33% drop and no liquidity or margin issues, is their Prime Broker the Federal Reserve, or god?.

  And even if that is right, we can’t wait to see the inbound redemption request faxes from delighted LPs who just lost a third of their capital which should assure that this particular hedge fund does not reincarnate a third time.

  Meanwhile, reporting something we did not know but certainly speculated, Bloomberg also said that Steve Cohen’s $19 billion Point72 Asset Management “lost 10% to 15% so far this month as a growing number of hedge funds tally losses from retail investors’ attacks on popular positions.” And this after Cohen plowed $750MM in Melvin Capital to make sure that his previous investment in his former employee, Gabe Plotkin, wasn’t wiped.

  Cohen’s loss underscores the potential for pain to spread after investors using chat rooms and social media set out to target some hedge fund bets. Point72 already had about $1 billion at Melvin, which as of Tuesday had lost more than 30% so far this year.

  Yes: one of the most legendary hedge funds on Wall Street, the firm that was the inspiration for “Billions”, lost almost a sixth of its value because of a unprecedented raid by a ragtag band of teenage “autists” who showed the world just how much power and how much damage countless DDOS-type attacks on a handful of hedge funds by millions of individual investors all armed with stimmy checks – who are irrelevant alone but so powerful combined – can do.

  So much damage, in fact, that the powers that be found it necessary to first shut down the discord server, and then give them a permanent time out because one more hedge funds – perhaps Steve Cohen himself – complained.

  And just like that wallstreetbets has a new enemy pic.twitter.com/WngCRuS67k

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 27, 2021

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  And then there’s this:

  • *SUNDHEIM’S $20 BILLION D1 CAPITAL LOSES ABOUT 20% THIS MONTH: BBG

  We can almost see how the 3 million WallStreetBets “autists” surpassed conservatives to become society’s #1 enermy…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 19:33

• Audit Finds 4 Million Californians May Have To Repay COVID Jobless Benefits
  Audit Finds 4 Million Californians May Have To Repay COVID Jobless Benefits

  A new audit of California’s Employment Development Department (EDD) finds the agency was unprepared and had ineffective management to handle the surge in jobless claims during the virus pandemic. 

  

  In September, the Joint Legislative Audit Committee ordered State Auditor Elaine Howle to conduct an in-depth audit into EDD following a tidal wave of abuse reports. 

  One of the most notable abuses was rapper Fontrell Antonio Baines, 31, who fraudulently collected $1.2 million in EDD claims. He even detailed the EDD scam in a rap video. 

  State lawmakers had criticized the agency for massive backlogs that delayed claims, along with its failure to prevent widespread fraud. 

  “Although it would be unreasonable to have expected a flawless response to such a historical event, EDD’s inefficient processes and lack of advanced planning led to significant delays in its payment of [unemployment insurance] claims,” Howle’s letter said, which was addressed to the governor and lawmakers. 

  Howle found at least half of the claims submitted online to EDD could not automatically process between March and September and were processed manually. 

  “As a result, hundreds of thousands of claimants waited longer than 21 days — EDD’s measure of how quickly it should process a claim — to receive their first benefit payments,” Howle said. “EDD has begun to modify its practices and processes to increase the rate at which it automatically processes online claims, but the automation it has gained during the pandemic is not fully sustainable.”

  As the backlog soared during the pandemic and internal chaos at EDD erupted, the agency relaxed eligibility rules to speed up claims distribution. This may have resulted in millions of people who shouldn’t have received claims or were overpaid. Now EDD is deciding how these folks will repay the jobless benefits they got during the pandemic.

  

  Around 2.4 million people who received jobless benefits might have been ineligible, and 1.7 might have been overpaid, totaling more than 4 million people might have to repay the state government. 

  “That could have significant consequences for claimants,” the audit said.

  In December, EDD flagged 12.7 million eligibility issues affecting 2.4 million people. To review the millions of issues, it would take the agency 3 million hours of work to resolve just half of the claims. 

  California Labor Secretary Julie Su said this week that the state paid out $11.4 billion in fraudulent claims last year, representing about 10% of the $114 billion in benefits paid since March.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 01/27/2021 – 19:00

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• That's All Folks!
  That’s All Folks!

  Authored (mostly satirically) by CJ Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

  As they used to say at the end of all those wacky Looney Tunes cartoons, that’s all folks! The show is over.

  

  Literal Russian-Asset Hitler, the Latest Greatest Threat to Western Democracy, the Monster of Mar-a-Lago, Trumpzilla, Trumpenstein, the Ayatollah of Orange Shinola, has finally been humiliated and given the bum-rush out of Washington by the heroic forces of the GloboCap “Resistance,” with a little help from the US military.

  The whole thing went exactly to script.

  Well … OK, not quite exactly to script. Despite four years of dire warnings by the corporate media, the Intelligence Community, Hollywood celebrities, the Democratic Party, faux anti-fascists, fake-Left pundits, and pretty much every utterly deluded, Trump-obsessed liberal with an Internet connection, there was no Hitlerian “Reichstag Fire,” no Boogaloo, no Civil War II, no coup, no white-supremacist uprising.

  Nothing.

  The man simply got on a chopper and was flown away to his Florida resort.

  I know, you’re probably thinking …

  “Wow, how embarrassing for the GloboCap ‘Resistance,’ being exposed as a bunch of utterly shameless, neo-Goebbelsian propagandists, and liars, and hysterical idiots, and such!”

  And, in any other version of reality, you’d have a point … but not in this one.

  No, in this reality, “Democracy Has Prevailed!”

  Yes, it was touch and go there for a while, as there was no guarantee that the Intelligence Community, the military-industrial complex, Western governments, the corporate media, supranational corporations, Internet oligarchs, and virtually every other component of the global-capitalist empire could keep one former game show host with no real political power whatsoever from taking over the entire world.

  Still, Trump’s failure to go full-Hitler, or even half-Hitler, was somewhat awkward. I mean, you can’t whip millions of people into a four-year frenzy of fear and hatred of a clearly powerless ass-clown president, and portray him as a Russian Intelligence asset, and the Son of Hitler, and all the rest of it, and then just drop the act cold and laugh in their faces. That would leave them feeling like total morons who had just spent the last four years of their lives being lied to and emotionally manipulated, or like members of a cult, or something.

  Fortunately, for GloboCap, this was not a major problem. All they had to do was produce a cheap simulation of “Trump going full-Hitler.” It didn’t even have to be convincing. They just needed a semi-dramatic event to plug into the official narrative, something they could call “an attempted coup,” “an insurrection,” “an attack,” and so on, and which millions of credulous liberals could hysterically shriek about on the Internet.

  The “Storming of the Capitol” did the trick.

  They held a dress rehearsal in Berlin last August, and then gave the real performance in the Capitol Building (this time it was for all the money, so they went ahead and got a couple people killed). It wasn’t very hard to pull off. All they actually had to do, in both Berlin and DC, was allow a small fringe group of angry protesters to gain access to the building, film it, and then pump out the “attempted coup” narrative. It made no difference whatsoever that the “domestic terrorists” (in both Berlin and Washington) were a completely unorganized, unarmed mob that posed absolutely zero threat of “staging a coup” and “overthrowing the government.” It also made not the slightest difference that Trump didn’t actually “incite” the mob (yes, I put myself through the agony of reading every word of his speech, which was the usual word salad from start to finish). We’re talking propaganda here, not reality.

  The so-called “Violent Storming of the Capitol” set the stage for the main event, which was the show of force we have all just witnessed. Someone (I’m not entirely clear who) ordered in the troops, tens of thousands of them, locked down Washington, erected fences, set up road blocks and military check points, and otherwise occupied the government district. It looked like any other US-military post-“regime-change” occupation, because that’s what it was, which was precisely the point. As I have been repeating for … well, for over four years now, it was always going to end this way, with GloboCap making an example of Trump and reminding everyone who is really in charge.

  Look, let’s be clear about these last four years, because there are all kinds of crazy theories going around (not to mention the official GloboCap narrative), but what actually happened is pretty simple. Here’s the whole story, as concise as I can make it.

  Back in 2016, the American people, sick to the gills of global capitalism and its increasingly oppressive woke ideology, elected an unauthorized, narcissistic ass-clown to the highest office in the land.

  They did this for a variety of reasons, but mostly it was just a big “fuck you” to the establishment. It was an act of rebellion against a government which they know is owned by unaccountable, supranational corporations and oligarchs who openly detest them.

  It was an act of rebellion against a system of government they know they have no influence over, and are not going to have any influence over. It was an act of rebellion against global capitalism, the unopposed, global-hegemonic system which has dominated the world for the last thirty years … whether they realized what they were rebelling against or not.

  This act of rebellion happened on the heels of Brexit (another such act of rebellion) and in the context of the rise of assorted “populist” movements all throughout the world. When Trump actually won in 2016, the global capitalist ruling classes realized they had a serious problem … a “populist” rebellion in the heart of the empire.

  So they suspended the Global War on Terror and launched the War on Populism.

  The ultimate objective of the War on Populism was to neutralize this “populist” rebellion and remind the public who is actually running things.

  Think of the Trump era as a prison riot. In any maximum security prison, the prisoners know they can’t escape, but they can definitely raise a little hell now and then, which they tend to do when they get really tired of being abused and neglected by the prison guards.

  Most prison riots run out of steam on their own, but if they go on too long or get too ugly, the penal authorities typically respond by shooting a few prisoners (usually the ringleaders), and reminding the inmates that they are in a prison, and that the owners of the prison have guns, whereas they have shivs made out of spoons and toothbrushes.

  This, basically, is what we’ve just experienced.

  The global capitalist ruling classes have just reminded us who is really in charge, who the US military answers to, and how quickly they can strip away the facade of democracy and the rule of law. They have reminded us of this for the last ten months, by putting us under house arrest, beating and arresting us for not following orders, for not wearing masks, for taking walks without permission, for having the audacity to protest their decrees, for challenging their official propaganda, about the virus, the election results, etc. They are reminding us currently by censoring dissent, and deplatforming anyone they deem a threat to their official narratives and ideology.

  In other words, GloboCap is teaching us a lesson. I don’t know how much clearer they could make it. They just installed a new puppet president, who can’t even simulate mental acuity, in a locked-down, military-guarded ceremony which no one was allowed to attend, except for a few members of the ruling classes. They got some epigone of Albert Speer to convert the Mall (where the public normally gathers) into a “field of flags” symbolizing “unity.” They even did the Nazi “Lichtdom” thing. To hammer the point home, they got Lady Gaga to dress up as a Hunger Games character with a “Mockingjay” brooch and sing the National Anthem. They broadcast this spectacle to the entire world.

  And the lesson isn’t quite over yet … it won’t be over for a while. The “War on Populism” will simply morph into the “New Normal War on Domestic Terror,” which will become one more theater in the “Global War on Terror,” which has been on hiatus, and which will now resume. As I have pointed out repeatedly over the past four years, we appear to be headed toward a dystopian future in which there will essentially be two classes of people: (a) “normals” (i.e., those who conform to global-capitalist ideology and decrees); and (b) the “extremists” (i.e., those who don’t).

  It will make no difference whatsoever what type of “extremists” these “extremists” are … religious-fundamentalist extremists, Islamic extremists, Christian extremists, right-wing extremists, left-wing extremists, white-supremacist or Black-nationalist extremists, virus deniers, anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theorists, anti-maskers, recalcitrant transphobians, anti-transhumanists, pronoun resisters, defiant oppositionalists, or whatever … the names don’t really matter. The point is, conform or be labelled an “extremist,” a “domestic terrorist,” or some other type of “antisocial person” or “social deviant,” or “potential threat to public health.”

  I don’t claim to know every detail, but one thing seems abundantly clear. We are not going back to the way things were. GloboCap has been explaining this to us, over and over, for almost a year. They couldn’t have made it any more explicit. When they warned us to get ready because a “New Normal” was coming, they meant it.

  And now … well … here it is…

  

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 23:25

• COVID Response Sparks Spike In Americans' Anxiety & Depression
  COVID Response Sparks Spike In Americans’ Anxiety & Depression

  Aside from killing nearly 400,000 Americans to date and wreaking havoc on the country’s economy, Statista’s Felix Richter notes that the COVID-19 pandemic is also taking a heavy toll on mental health.

  That’s according to data compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Center for Health Statistics, showing that more than 4 in 10 U.S. adults had developed symptoms of depression or anxiety by the end of 2020, a sharp increase over the results of a comparable survey conducted in the first half of 2019.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  The latest findings are derived from the Household Pulse Survey, which has been launched to produce data on the social and economic impacts of COVID-19 on American households. A total of 60,000 Americans were surveyed about their mental health between December 9 and 21, asked to report how often they have felt down, depressed, hopeless or anxious in the last week, how often they have been unable to stop worrying or shown little interest or pleasure in doing things – all symptoms that have been shown to be associated with diagnoses of generalized anxiety disorder or major depressive disorder.

  As the chart above shows, the share of respondents showing signs of anxiety or depression has nearly quadrupled compared to results obtained before the pandemic. As hundreds of thousands have died and millions have lost their jobs, Americans are facing a plethora of uncertainties with respect to their and their families’ health and financial wellbeing, worries which are only exacerbated when dealt with alone amid a time of social distancing.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 23:05

• Migrants Increasing At "Concerning Rate" On Southern Border, Says CBP Agent
  Migrants Increasing At “Concerning Rate” On Southern Border, Says CBP Agent

  Authored by Terri Wu via The Epoch Times,

  As caravans build up in Honduras, migrants are increasing at a “concerning rate” at the United States southern border, according to Matthew Hudak, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) chief patrol agent of the Laredo sector in Texas. He warns that immigration is just a piece of the threat coupled with the pandemic health risk and other crimes along the border.

  

  “Like everybody, we’re tracking the formation of these caravans in Central America,” said Hudak. The Laredo Sector is one of nine CBP sectors along the southern border. It contains about 135 miles of the international border with Mexico.

  On Jan. 8, CBP Acting Commissioner Mark A. Morgan issued a statement on potential migrant caravans:

  “Do not waste your time and money, and do not risk your safety and health.”

  According to Hudak, the Laredo Sector hasn’t seen a reduction of migrants in response to the statement. It has made over 30,000 arrests in this fiscal year, a 50 percent increase over the same period last year. Hudak added that similar trends are identified by other sectors on the southern border. The U.S. government fiscal year starts on Oct. 1. Hudak called the 50 percent increase “a pretty concerning rate.”

  

  Matthew J. Hudak, Chief Patrol Agent of Laredo Sector of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection during the video interview on Jan. 21, 2021. (Terri Wu/The Epoch Times)

  He told The Epoch Times that some portions of the caravan of 9,000 migrants will make their way to the southern border. Part of the group was stopped in Guatemala on Jan. 16. Depending on the pace and the means with which these migrants travel, the arrival time at the U.S.-Mexico border may be between a few days and a few weeks. As of Jan. 21, he hasn’t yet seen a dramatic increase of migrants indicative of caravans arriving at the southern border.

  Hudak said that human smuggling is usually achieved with systems shared with drug and firearm smuggling, and the fees migrants are charged feed larger criminal organizations. Therefore, he sees a more significant threat: “We may be talking about one piece of it, which is immigration, but it’s part of a much larger criminal enterprise.”

  

  The Laredo Sector is one of nine CBP sectors along the southern border of the United States. It contains about 135 miles of the international border with Mexico. (Americanpatrol.com)

  He attributed the trend of migrant increase to the U.S. economy and better healthcare systems, especially during the pandemic. Timing also plays a role.

  “We’ve seen the economy in this country get back on track and continue to expand. That’s always a driving force of people coming this way looking for jobs and work. We have done interviews where we do get that information that there is a sense of timing, that now is the time to try to make that journey here to the U.S.”

  Teresa De la Garza, Department of Justice (DOJ) accredited immigration representative at Catholic Social Services in Laredo, Texas, went through an 11-year process to become an American. Growing up at the border, she used to go to an international school in Texas and go back home to Mexico every day. She said part of the migrant enthusiasm is fueled by more of a change of president than shifts in immigration policies.

  

  Teresa De la Garza (center), immigration representative at Catholic Social Services in Laredo, TX, with her colleagues (from left to right) Angeles Palacios, Vanessa Guerrero, Sandra Gutierrez, and Edgar Martinez. (Courtesy of Teresa De la Garza)

  She considered the enthusiasm unrealistic.

  “Some of the policies that have changed in these past four years can’t be reversed as soon as another president comes in. It will take time.”

  In her view, the new administration will need beyond four years to make significant immigration policy changes.

  De la Garza is currently busy with many appointments through March for consulting applicants of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. The program is for illegal immigrants who were brought into the States before their 16th birthday. A Jan. 20 presidential memorandum has reinstated the program after the Department of Homeland Security put the program on hold for review last year.

  The local communities don’t want migrants arriving due to pandemic-related health concerns, according to De la Garza. Just a week ago, CBP intercepted 114 migrants in a box truck. Most of them weren’t wearing personal protection equipment.

  

  On Jan. 14, 2021, U.S. Border Patrol agents from Laredo Sector stopped a human smuggling attempt involving a U-Haul rental box truck in south Laredo and arrested 114 illegal migrants. (Courtesy of CBP)

  According to Hudak, the top near-term challenges are protecting national security and the workforce during the pandemic and keeping up with the evolution of tactics of the cartels and the smuggling organizations, including using more moving vehicles than large trailer trucks.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 22:45

• "Iron Gulf": Israel's Iron Dome Systems To Be Deployed At US Bases In Persian Gulf
  “Iron Gulf”: Israel’s Iron Dome Systems To Be Deployed At US Bases In Persian Gulf

  Early this week Israel’s Haaretz newspaper featured quotes from top Israeli military sources which are sure to add major fuel to the fire of simmering Iran tensions in the region. 

  The Israeli sources say there’s been a behind closed doors agreement to deploy the Iron Dome defense systems to US military bases in the Gulf. “The United States is expected to soon begin deploying Iron Dome missile interceptor batteries, one of the jewels of Israel’s arms manufacturing industry, in its bases in the Gulf States, according to security officials,” Haaretz wrote.

  

  Israeli officials told the newspaper further that ongoing talks are now centered on obtaining “the technical approval of the Americans to deploy the batteries in order to protect their forces from possible attacks by Iran and its allies.”

  It’s as yet unknown which countries would host the Israeli anti-air systems, which are most often used to deter Hamas rockets out of Gaza, but the secretive talks follow on the heels of the Trump-brokered Abraham accords which saw normalization of ties between the UAE and Israel, among others. 

  This also comes as earlier this month Israel transferred its second Iron Dome battery to the US Defense Department, as part of a deal inked in 2019.

  Below are some key quotes in the Haaretz report, which was also picked up by Bloomberg:

  Because of the sensitivity of the matter for the Americans, Israeli officials are refusing to reveal in which countries the Iron Dome interceptors will be deployed. But behind closed doors, Israel gave its tacit agreement to the Americans to place the batteries in order to defend its forces from attacks by Iran and its proxies, according to Israeli officials.

  And surprisingly the Iron Dome systems could eventually make their way to US bases in Eastern Europe:

  As well as the Gulf states, deployments are also expected in Eastern European countries, out of fear that Russia could endanger American forces, or strategic infrastructure in those countries, said the Israeli officials.

  In early January when the Israel Ministry of Defense delivered the second of two Iron Dome anti-air missile defense systems to the US Army, Defense Minister Benny Gantz told Israel National News that “the delivery of the Iron Dome to the U.S. Army once again demonstrates the close relations between the Israel Ministry of Defense and the U.S. Department of Defense.” 

  Gantz continued: “I am confident that the system will assist the U.S. Army in protecting American troops from ballistic and airborne threats as well as from developing threats in the areas where U.S. troops are deployed on various missions.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 22:25

• Get Used To Living Under "Subsidiarity" After The Great Reset
  Get Used To Living Under “Subsidiarity” After The Great Reset

  Authored by Mark Jeftovic via bombthrower.com,

  #Davos2021 started yesterday.

  We’ve all been hearing a lot The Great Reset lately, new slogans abound such as Build Back Better, the New Normal, and what seems to be a “new” model called “Stakeholder Capitalism” is being espoused (although it is not new, I wrote about the pendulum swinging from stakeholder supremacy to shareholder supremacy back in the days of Milton Friedman in the inaugural post for this site).

  Recently I decided it would be helpful challenge my own reflexive inclination to suspect that we were all being collectively screwed by our institutions, yet again.  I wondered if these momentous shifts were simply one of those tectonic phase shifts that occur throughout history and that I shouldn’t leap to the conclusion that it’s some disingenuous and ultimately malevolent  pseudo-reality being imposed from above.

  

  It is fitting that as #Davos2021 begins, I outline my arc in which I tried to suspend disbelief around The Great Reset narrative, forcing myself to pose the question:

  What if The Great Reset was getting a bad rap?

  Maybe it’s true that the world has changed irrevocably, and that change hasn’t been driven or captured by a razor thin scab of elites at the top of the socio-economic pyramid who are setting the agenda. The idea of a reset may be well founded, after all when I first started writing about wealth inequality and crony capitalism over a decade ago, I called it “Rebooting Capitalism”.

  So I started going through Klaus Schwab’s books: The Fourth Industrial Revolution (2016), COVID-19: The Great Reset (2020) and most recently, Stakeholder Capitalism. (2021).  It started out as s a curious blend of nodding one’s head in agreement, underlining numerous passages, musing that maybe this is just descriptive, not prescriptive. By that I mean, maybe Schwab is simply trying to make sense of the shifts occurring, and not really offering frameworks around what should happen next, but just trying to parse what is happening and possible trajectories of the future.

  This former case is similar to Warren Mosler’s description of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). It describes how Mosler and other MMT-ers think the system actually works and why the outcomes will not be as conventional economics generally fears. In Stephenie Kelton’s more recent book The Deficit Myth, she builds on this theme that MMT is more descriptive with some prescriptive policy recommendations. But my overall sense of it is that these books about MMT were more about trying to articulate a new way of looking at the existing system and not trying to drive a completely overriding agenda (even if that’s what would happen if policy makers seize on MMT as a rationalization for destroying their currencies).

  I mention MMT here specifically because we touch on it again when I contrast it to Charles Hugh Smith’s concept of Community Labour Integrated Money Economy (CLIME), a little later.

  With Schwab, he spends a lot of time in a descriptive mode, talking about the what is happening in the world, although we do see some of his assumptions creeping in and for awhile, I am cautiously optimistic that if everything Schwab outlines as a policy response to global issues like global poverty, and of course now, the pandemic, maybe it’s just the way of the world and this is the direction things are going without there necessarily being a SPECTRE-like entity in the WEF driving a self-serving agenda.

  When Schwab talks about how a grand ideal of a standard issue One World Government model, what he calls the Neoliberal Utopia simply will not work, I breathe a sigh of relief,

  “Consider  a global government [that] regulates multinational companies in global markets, and people gather in a global democracy and global unions. It is an unrealistic an undesirable goal, as it increases the distance between individuals and the immediate social ecosystems they are a part of. It also decreases their feeling of commitment to the people and the environment closest to them…Though the 20th century neoliberalists once may have seen such a global model as a Utopian ideal, it would inevitably end in the political disenfranchisement of local communities. When the center of power is too far removed  from people’s everyday realities, neither political governance nor economic decision-making would have popular support.”

  – Stakeholder Capitalism p.181

  But then, the more I read, the more I couldn’t shake the sense that when a guy like Schwab means by the word “commitment, what he really means is “obedience”. Schwab understands that people aren’t really going to accept decisions from on high, especially if on high is a centralized world government.

  What we really need is “Subsidiarity”

  Schwab goes on to introduce with a flourish one of the core pillars of Stakeholder Capitalism: Subsidiarity (the other is “Value creation and sharing”):

  A primary principle for the implementation of Stakeholder Capitalism is therefore that of subsidiarity. It is not an untested or purely theoretical principal. Applied most famously in the governance of the European Union..it asserts that decisions should be taken at the most granular level possible, closest to where they will have the most noticeable effects. It determines, in other words, that local stakeholders should be able to decide for themselves, except when it is not feasible or effective for them to do so.

  Subsidiarity is supposed to mean “whatever can be done at lower levels of government should not be done at higher levels”, but my guess is the devil would be in the details. Like in that last sentence of the quote, when it is not feasible or effective for the “stakeholders” in Stakeholder Capitalism to decide certain matters for themselves, those will have to be decided for them.

  What would those sorts of issues be?

  Well for starters, there’s climate change. That’s one of the things that’s already been decided…

  “It makes sense to coordinate this challenge first at the global level.” but then the second level is at the national level, where countries can take different approaches, a limit on auto travel would have significant effect in the United States, where cars are the primary mode of transportation. Taking a different approach, such as limiting air travel, would affect certain groups of people more than others. Subsidiarity supports a national or local level of decision making for countries to determine which path will work best for them to effectively address the global goal”.

  As Schwab blithely bandies about various limitations and curtailments on everybody else’s range of motion and economic choices, there is never any treatment of climate change as anything but a global crisis that justifies the complete re-ordering of everybody’s lives.

  And yet, the same level of drastic re-ordering of everybody else’s lives is proffered in Schwab’s other book, COVID-19: The Great Reset, even though by his own admission in that same book, COVID-19 is a not civilization ending plague:

  “Even in the worst-case horrendous scenario, COVID-19 will kill far fewer people than the Great Plagues, including the Black Deaths, or World War II did”

  – COVID-19: The Great Reset p. 17

  Albeit one that provides an excellent opportunity to reorder everybody else’s lives,

  changes that would have seemed inconceivable before the pandemic struck, such as new forms of monetary policy like helicopter money (already a given), the reconsideration/recalibration of some of our social priorities and augmented search for the common good as a policy objective, the notion of fairness acquiring political potency, radical welfare and taxation measures, and drastic geopolitical realignments.

  The broader point is this: the possibilities for change and the resulting new order are now unlimited and only bound by our imagination, for better or for worse. Societies could be poised to become either more egalitarian or more authoritarian, or geared towards more solidarity or more individualism, favouring the interests of the few or the many…

  You get the point: we (as in the WEF) should take advantage of this unprecedented opportunity to reimagine your world.

  If COVID-19 is a comparatively lightweight pandemic to be opportunistically seized upon to drastically reorder everybody’s lives, one cant help but wonder if the climate “crisis” isn’t yet another global softball. Perhaps in the cold light of day, it could turn out that climate change is either out of our hands (if it is driven largely or even partially by solar cycles) or that climate alarmism is in itself more toxic and destructive than the direct effects of climate change itself, as Michael Shellenberger asserts in “Apocalypse Never”,

  Apocalypse Never explores how and why so many of us came to see important but manageable environmental problems as the end of the world, and why the people who are the most apocalyptic about environmental problems tend to oppose the best and most obvious solutions to solving them.

  Shellenberger, Michael. Apocalypse Never (p. xi). Harper. Kindle Edition.

  Shouldn’t there be some sort of process or governance structure in there to protect the world’s citizens from being overly regulated by somebody else’s idea of what is important? Should there be some counterbalance to these unilateral assessments of when drastic measures are required, especially when those measures would supersede our own agency in ordering our lives?

  But there isn’t, not in Schwab’s Stakeholder Capitalism after the The Great Reset.

  What we get instead is “subsidiarity”:

  Another example around climate change, conspicuous in its lack of coverage in Schwab’s books is the idea of nuclear energy.

  If the entire world is headed toward an eventual transition off of fossil fuels (if for no other reason than Peak Oil) then shouldn’t the safest, cleanest, efficient energy source be featured prominently? The next generation pebble bed reactors and micro-reactors are safe to the point of being effectively riskless when compared to other forms of energy generation and the number fatalities those other forms cause when accidents do occur:

  The worst energy accident of all time was the 1975 collapse of the Banqiao hydroelectric dam in China. It collapsed and killed between 170,000 and 230,000 people. It’s not that nuclear energy never kills. It’s that its death toll is vanishingly small. Here are some annual death totals: walking (270,000), driving (1.35 million), working (2.3 million), air pollution (4.2 million). By contrast, nuclear’s known total death toll is just over one hundred.

  Leading Shellenberger, an environmental activist of 30 years to assert that,

  Nuclear is the safest way to make reliable electricity. In fact, nuclear has saved more than two million lives to date by preventing the deadly air pollution that shortens the lives of seven million people per year….

  Nuclear’s worst accidents show that the technology has always been safe for the same inherent reason that it has always had such a small environmental impact: the high energy density of its fuel.

  – Shellenberger, Michael. Apocalypse Never (p. 151). Harper. Kindle Edition.

  And then there’s also  Thorium, which can’t meltdown and the radiation half-life is measured in weeks, not years. There is no mention of any of this in any of Schwab’s books.

  Under subsidiarity, local governments across the world will be tasked with addressing problems Kraus Schwab and the Davos crew (the wealthiest 0.01% of humanity that own somewhere north of $36 trillion of the global assets) deem to be problems, and reorder the world according to how the WEF thinks things should be prioritized.

  What are the priorities?

  We get some insight by looking at the list of “Deep Shifts” Schwab predicts in his earlier book: The Fourth Industrial Revolution, where he posits what the big changes are that are coming at us in terms of tipping points, positive outcomes, negative outcomes and “unknown / cuts both ways”.

  Shift #1: Implantable Technologies (p. 121)

  “Digital tatoos not only look cool but can perform useful tasks, like unlocking a car, entering mobile phone codes with a finger point or tracking body processes”

  (or implementing immunity passports).

  Shift #10: Smart Cities (p.144)

  Shift #11: Big Data for Decisions (p. 145)

  Shift #22: Designer Beings

  Tipping point in for this one will be when “The first human whose genome was directly and deliberately edited is born” (which I will point out, has already happened with the CRISPR babies in China).

  Shift #23: Neurotechnologies (p. 170)

  Tipping point: “The first human with fully artificial memory implanted in the brain”.

  Together, they coalesce to usher in an impetus toward transhumanism ordered by Big Data and AI that will probably, in lieu of any honest debate or public consultation around these shifts, result in a type of social credit system.

  And that’s what is missing from Schwab’s books. There is nothing in the framework where local communities can identify and define what they see as problems for themselves and work toward solving them. There is no mechanism for asserting their own priorities of types of things the communities themselves may value above the WEF’s “Deep Shifts”, such as full or meaningful employment, privacy, or self-sovereign health care.

  Directionality matters

  In other words, what is missing from Stakeholder Capitalism is that, despite paying lip service to inclusion and community, there are no actual mechanisms for priorities coming from the bottom up.

  What I’ve been realizing is that you can take two systems that have outwardly similar mechanics, like  MMT and Charles Hugh Smith’s CLIME. Both systems describe an economy from which money is created ex nihilo to fulfill or generate economic activity. But from those two frameworks one can envision two very different outcomes: hyper-inflation and a two-tier society on one, and a robust community of involved economic actual stakeholders getting stuff done in the other. Why?

  Because one is a top-down framework where the incentives are set by policy makers removed from the economy they attempt to fine tune, while the other is a bottom-up ecosystem where actual economic activity is a direct result of market signalling and community needs.

  Conclusion

  After reading through the Schwab material having initially forced myself to suspend judgement,  I now am now firmer in my initial suspicions that The Great Reset, Stakeholder Capitalism and Build Back Better  slogans that come out of these annual Davos circle jerks are blissfully oblivious to what they themselves actually are.

  They believe that the role they are ostensibly to serve is as the “enlightened stewards” of society, taking the liberty of reimagining everybody else’s lives.

  In reality, they are the living embodiment of uber-woke super wealthy elites , so tacitly sure that their belief systems are the product of their own personal enormous material success that they can’t really be beliefs but self-evident truths. After all, if they were wrong, they wouldn’t be super rich, right?

  What is being proposed however, what The Great Reset and Stakeholder Capitalism is, isn’t just benignly wrong-headed or egregiously presumptive: it is chilling.

  It doesn’t specifically call for social credit, or an AI-driven authoritarianism, yet that is what its tenets and incentives will produce. It aspires toward transhumanism, and so far all indications are that governments, and global elites seem to be buying into it and singing the “Build Back Better” mantra of Stakeholder Capitalism in concert.

  What it will lead to is The Great Bifurcation, the 3rd Scenario I posited in The Jackpot Chronicles. Much has come into focus now since I wrote that just this past summer.

  If The Great Reset comes about, and I think it’s already here, it will lead to that two tier society where the world’s underclass are governed algorithmically via smartphones, digital, programmable scrip (UBI) and well ordered dopamine hits. Meanwhile the far smaller populace that actually owns all the assets globally live in a parallel universe where they retain agency, freedom of movement, diet, and thought.

  On my mailing list I talk about what we can do as individuals to try and get clear of The Great Reset. Because even if we loathe this with every fibre of our being, find it oppressive and tyrannical, anti-human, anti-spirit and soulless, we won’t be able to do anything about it from the wrong side of the impermeable membrane that will very soon cordon off the haves from the haves-nots.

  We have to defend our liberties, our civil rights and our assets in the New Normal. In a worst case scenario it’ll require forming an underground network a la Isaac Assimov’s Foundation. The Foundation’s stated purpose was to survive the onset of a Galactic Dark Age and preserve the accumulated culture and wisdom of a civilization that had irrevocably embarked on a path that would trigger its own demise.

  Now more than ever it is important we all try to improve things from the grass roots level as the Stakeholder Capitalism rubric may be the last gasp of a system about the come off the rails completely or after a prolonged period of disruption and tyranny.

  Charles Hugh Smith and I are working on a base framework for CLIME that will empower communities to create their own local exchange currency and take control over their own community economies.

  • Join my mailing list to be notified about that and get other advice on surviving The Great Reset.
  • Start setting up on alternative communications channels like Telegram, Signal and Keybase (we’re setting up a Bombthrower Telegram here)
  • Support third-party political parties like the Greens if your left-of-center or the Libertarians or PPC if you’re on the right; withdraw your financial support and votes from incumbent political parties everywhere, at all levels (more on this in another post).

  Hold your ground where possible, but prepare for a type of Samizdat communications culture for awhile. We may have to keep in touch with each other from the underground. The mainstream media will be no help and Big Tech is part of the problem.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 22:05

• Modi Reform Backlash Sparks Chaos In New Delhi As Farmers Attack Police
  Modi Reform Backlash Sparks Chaos In New Delhi As Farmers Attack Police

  Tens of thousands of angry farmers drove tractors and marched through India’s capital on Tuesday. 

  According to Asian News International (ANI), New Delhi Police said, “protesters turned violent at some places. Many police personnel were injured & public properties also damaged.” 

  Reuters tweeted a video showing farmers have gone mad in the capital. Police and farmers clashed during the Republic Day celebrations.

  🚜🇮🇳 Los agricultores indios que protestan contra las reformas agrícolas condujeron tractores por las calles de Nueva Delhi durante las celebraciones del Día de la República y se enfrentaron con la policía, que lanzó gases lacrimógenos pic.twitter.com/aQZ36yXxIE

  — Reuters Latam (@ReutersLatam) January 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Farmers broke through police barricades and stormed the historic Red Fort, a historical fort in the city that served as the Mughal Emperors’ primary residence. ANI shows farmers beating and tossing police off a wall. 

  #WATCH | Delhi: Protestors attacked Police at Red Fort, earlier today. #FarmersProtest pic.twitter.com/LRut8z5KSC

  — ANI (@ANI) January 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Farmers attack a riot control vehicle. 

  #WATCH | Two vehicles of Delhi Police including a riot control vehicle were vandalised by protesters at Nangloi-Najafgarh Road earlier today. (Video source – Delhi Police) pic.twitter.com/FWW6Detxpw

  — ANI (@ANI) January 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Chaos. 

  “Happy republic day “ Indian citizens this is your “India”. The whole world is watching you !!!! Shameless act by Modi sarkaar !! @UNHumanRights #HistoricTractorMarch #FarmersProtest
  #RSSRepublicDay pic.twitter.com/AeCY10btVn

  — Hoorain Pervaiz🇵🇰 (@HoorainPervaiz) January 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “11th March 1783 the KHALSA flag was unfurled over the Red Fort, majestically at the APEX of the Lal Qila. THEN it signified the BEGINNING of the end for the Delhi Empire. What significance is this for today’s FUTURE ?? TIME will tell….,” one user said.

  

  Here are more views of farmers storming the Red Fort. 

  

  One person compares the fort’s storming to the recent riot at the US Capitol complex.

  Are you compare these 2 pics from west to east, from oldest democracy to biggest democracy? #FarmersProtest #FarmersProstests #किसान_नहीं_गुंडे

  If leader of first pic is being impeach, why not others one? pic.twitter.com/sOQYTD4IW9

  — ∂ιиєѕн ρяαʝαρтι (@Itsdinnu) January 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Farmers have stayed peaceful but today was absolute chaos. These folks are mad because of unfair farming legislation passed several months ago.

  They allege Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s farming law, which ends the government’s programs to keep commodity prices at fixed levels, therefore allowing free markets to dictate prices, favors large corporations over mom and pop farmers. 

  There’s no telling on when the unrest will end. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 21:45

• Quinn: The Fourth Turning Detonation, Part 1
  Quinn: The Fourth Turning Detonation, Part 1

  Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

  “Americans today fear that linearism (alias the American Dream) has run its course. Many would welcome some enlightenment about history’s patterns and rhythms, but today’s intellectual elites offer little that’s useful. Caught between the entropy of the chaoticists and the hubris of the linearists, the American people have lost their moorings.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

  

  “The ancients believed that each cyclical extreme, mirroring the hopes and fears of the other, helps generate the other. The night longs for the day, the day for night. In war, people yearn for relief from strife, leading to peace. In peace, people yearn to champion what they love, leading to war.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

  When I started thinking about my annual beginning of the year article in early January, I tried to formulate a catchy title. Knowing we have entered the thirteenth year of this Fourth Turning, with the intensity of the crisis reaching an unparalleled level since November 4, I decided upon Fourth Turning Detonation. I immediately thought that might be too dire and figured I would change it later. After the first few weeks of the new year, I now think it might be grossly inadequate to describe what is coming in 2021.

  It is easy to get distracted by the daily gyrations, ceaseless media propaganda, political theater, false narratives, and delusional beliefs of both the left and right, as this military empire built on debt and deceit spirals towards its fiery cataclysmic climax. Opposing forces have gathered themselves into position focusing on defeating their domestic enemies, with the left seeming to have strategic advantage but led by hubristic dullards, while numerous foreign adversaries circle like hungry vultures ready to pounce on the dying beast of an empire.

  Last January I wrote a two-part article called 2020 – Year of Living Dangerously which harkened back to another article I had written eight years before 2012 – Year of Living Dangerously. I lamented the fact I had not understood Fourth Turnings will take their own sweet time on the way to a climax, with twists and turns which will differentiate it from previous Crisis periods in U.S. history. My impatience for the great battle to resolve this struggle has not and will not impact the timeline, but the three elements driving this Crisis remain firmly in control, as they have since 2008: debt, civic decay, global disorder.

  My belief regarding the subtext of what has happened and is happening in this country has not changed. I certainly underestimated the lengths these psychopaths in suits would go to in 2020 to further pillage the world’s wealth while using a pandemic as cover to further their agenda of hegemony and turning the world into a virtual prison camp under constant technological surveillance. Despite the timing, I still believe that which is unsustainable will not be sustained.

  

  “It seems I always underestimate the ability of sociopathic central bankers and their willingness to destroy the lives of hundreds of millions to benefit their oligarch masters. I always underestimate the rampant corruption that permeates Washington DC and the executive suites in mega-corporations across the land. And I always overestimate the intelligence, civic mindedness, and ability to understand math of the ignorant masses that pass for citizens in this country. It seems that issuing trillions of new debt to pay off trillions of bad debt, government sanctioned accounting fraud, mainstream media propaganda, government data manipulation and a populace blinded by mass delusion can stave off the inevitable consequences of an unsustainable economic system.”

  I used to try and make specific predictions about the new year generally centered upon economic chaos, stock markets crashing, global conflict, and various other doom-like events. But those running this clown show somehow convince the masses all is well, the economy is healthy, inflation is non-existent, debt does not matter, college makes you smart, we’re energy self-sufficient, 100 million working age Americans not working – but unemployment was 3.5%, the stock market hitting all-time highs is good for you even though your real wages haven’t gone up in a decade, and America was great again.

  It is amazing to me how effective propaganda is when multiple generations have been indoctrinated and socially engineered in the government school system and decades of boob tube fake news has been programmed into their pliably ignorant brains. Edward Bernays created the game plan and the techno-oligarch despots currently running the show are executing it to perfection.

  

  “The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of.” – Edward Bernays – Propaganda

  This Fourth Turning likely has another 5 to 10 years before some sort of convulsive resolution, unless it is accelerated like the Civil War Fourth Turning, with similar tragic consequences and mass casualties. Predicting the actual events which will occur over a short-term time frame is a fool’s errand, so I prefer to try and discern the direction and amplitude of the ongoing Crisis to gauge how we should prepare for what is coming.

  I do admire writers like Jim Kunstler who really go out on a limb and make extremely specific forecasts for the coming year, like he did on January 1 with his Forecast 2021 — Chinese Fire Drills with a side of French Fries (Jacobin-style) and Russian Dressing. If even 25% of his predictions had come to fruition, 2021 would have gone down as one of the most earth shattering in history. But here we are a few weeks later and all his predictions about Trump going to war with the Deep State and winning a glorious victory for the American people failed to materialize. Trump is golfing at Mar-a- Lago, while the Deep State remains firmly in control and in the midst of consolidating their power by crushing dissent through Domestic terrorism legislation and complete control of social media platforms.

  

  Even Kunstler acknowledges the Fourth Turning as a generational dynamic driving the events pushing the country and the world towards armed conflict. My high-level prognostications for 2020 certainly did not include a global pandemic used to introduce an Orwellian global dystopia and justification to steal a presidential election through mail-in ballot fraud and voting machine rigging.

  Of course, Bill Gates predicted the pandemic in 2018 and his buddy Fauci, in 2017, said there was “no doubt” Donald J. Trump would be confronted with a surprise infectious disease outbreak during his presidency. I wonder why he had no doubt. Fauci, an unknown lifetime government bureaucrat, is now a media darling, despite being wrong about everything. And Gates’ wealth has soared during this plandemic. My big picture guesses last year were colored by the assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani on January 3, expecting Middle East conflict to erupt. These were my main conjectures for 2020:

  • The Fed will continue to run their electronic printing presses at warp speed until the inevitable banquet of consequences is served to all.

  • We have entered the extreme greed phase of this debt-based Ponzi scheme. The stock market is in the blow-off stage, where earnings, valuations, and rational thinking are meaningless. Momentum and a delusional belief in the infallibility of the Fed are all that matter. Who knows how far it will go, but fear will eventually rear its ugly head, and a cascading collapse will make a lot of useful investing idiots very angry for the third time in the last two decades.

  • The Democrats and their Surveillance State co-conspirators have determined the best way to cover-up their treasonous acts are to stay on the offensive by impeaching Trump on bogus charges.

  • The social distress I noted last year continues unabated today as the glorification of abnormality reaches new heights. The flames of division and disarray are fanned unceasingly by the left-wing media to distract from the true desperate financial situation of the country.

  • Israel quietly foments discontent and turmoil across the region to keep the focus off itself. Russia and China support Iran economically and militarily to offset Americans dominance of the region. Confusion reigns.

  • Anyone with an ounce of critical thinking skills knows none of this is about freedom, democracy or doing the right thing. It’s about oil and it’s about the military industrial complex requiring enemies to keep the profits flowing.

  • The shale “miracle” is just another delusion built upon easy money pumped out by the Fed. No one can make profits on shale oil at $60 per barrel.

  • The months leading up to the election will be a circus. Propaganda, misinformation, and outright lies will be spread like manure. Of course, voting will not alleviate the issues which will continue to drive this Fourth Turning towards its climax – debt, civic decay, global disorder.

  • No matter the result of the upcoming election, neither side will accept the outcome.

  • There are no viable political solutions to our current dilemmas. It is just a matter of when and where the conflict goes hot and blood is spilled.

  • I do not know what events will dominate the coming year, but I do know the intensity of hate and vitriol will increase. I do know military conflict in the Middle East will expand. I do know the political machinations in this country will surge as the election approaches. I do know the Deep State will do everything in their immense power to undermine Trump. I do know the Fed will QE and Trump will cheer every new stock market record. I do know I will be lied to and propagandized by the mainstream corporate media.

  

  I knew 2020 had the potential to be a chaotic year, but didn’t anticipate a flu with a 99.7% survival rate being used by totalitarian minded politicians to destroy the global economy, usher in Orwellian police state lockdown measures across the globe; a stock market crash followed by Fed created bubbles still growing ever bubblier through $4 trillion of money printing; adding $4 trillion to the national debt (with another $3 trillion on the way in 2021); paying millions to sit at home eating Cheetos and watching Netflix; destroying a few hundred thousand small businesses while enriching mega-corporations; putting a nail in the coffin of the 1st Amendment through censorship of conservative speech; and blatantly stealing a presidential election.

  The globalist elite want to keep the fear at a high level to institute their global reset, where you will own nothing and be happy, or you will be brought to heel by the truncheon. This was the year it became crystal clear, the world is filled with good people, governed, and manipulated by bad people.

  By delaying this article until after January 20 I allowed the Qanon Psyop of Trump using the military to rescue the country to pass into history as another delusion of hope over reason. I truly do not know whether the Qanon phenomena (it was not widely known by Trump supporters or most people) was just a LARP being played by former Dungeons & Dragons keyboard warriors or an FBI/CIA counter-intelligence operation designed to keep a segment of the population distracted and ever hopeful their white knight would rescue them from the clutches of the evil Deep State. I am reminded of the quote about hope from President Snow in the Hunger Games.

  

  “Hope, it is the only thing stronger than fear. A little hope is effective, a lot of hope is dangerous. A spark is fine, as long as it’s contained.”

  The elevation of Trump to president and the spark of hope he would truly drain the swamp, arrest the traitorous Deep State coup co-conspirators, lead his legions to victory over the forces of evil, and make America great again, kept half the people in the country hopeful for the last four years.

  Meanwhile, the military industrial complex raked in hundreds of billions more from the American taxpayer; Wall Street bankers gorged on the trillions of free money, manufactured by their captured puppets at the Federal Reserve; the Silicon Valley despots consolidated their hold on commerce and communication; and the average American saw their standard of living continue its 50- year decline. The question is whether those constituting the “invisible government” allowed too much hope and needed the engineered pandemic to re-introduce fear as their primary control technique moving forward.

  They believe they have contained the spark with their fraudulent election victory; installation of an empty senile vassal as their conduit for the great reset; having their media mouthpieces propagate the falsity of a right wing white supremacist insurrection at the Capital; crushing dissent by censoring the truth through totalitarian social media conglomerates; proceeding with an impeachment farce based on Trump telling his supporters to peacefully protest the fraudulent election outcome; and threatening to destroy the lives of all vocal Trump supporters.

  I am highly doubtful they have contained the spark. I believe there are smoldering embers just waiting to be stirred into a conflagration which will engulf the entire world in a fiery purging of the existing social order, which has exhausted itself and needs to be cleansed. Jefferson understood the nature of Fourth Turnings two hundred years before Strauss & Howe put it to paper.

  

  “Try to unlearn the obsessive fear of death (and the anxious quest for death avoidance) that pervades linear thinking in nearly every modern society. The ancients knew that, without periodic decay and death, nature cannot complete its full round of biological and social change. Without plant death, weeds would strangle the forest. Without human death, memories would never die, and unbroken habits and customs would strangle civilization. Social institutions require no less. Just as floods replenish soil and fires rejuvenate forests, a Fourth Turning clears out society’s exhausted elements and creates an opportunity.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

  In Part Two of this article, I will examine the concept of the Grey Champion, their role in Fourth Turnings, and make some speculations as to the course of 2021 and the remainder of this Fourth Turning.

  *  *  *
  The corrupt establishment will do anything to suppress sites like the Burning Platform from revealing the truth. The corporate media does this by demonetizing sites like mine by blackballing the site from advertising revenue. If you get value from this site, please keep it running with a donation. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 21:25

• US States Ease Lockdowns Despite "Mutant" COVID 'Boogeymen'
  US States Ease Lockdowns Despite “Mutant” COVID ‘Boogeymen’

  Even as President Joe Biden challenges Americans to a “100 day masking challenge” and other mask-related restrictions on federal land, some of the biggest states in the US  (including ultra-liberal California and swing-state Michigan, among others) are going their own way, resisting calls from the Biden administration to go heavy with masks and lockdowns, which have – as we’ve noted, seemingly made no difference and lack scientific basis.

  

  Perhaps it has something to do with the WHO’s admission that PCR overamplification may have led to the “Case-Demic” that “conspiracy theorists have long warned about.

  But whatever the case may be, recently, liberal governors like New York’s Andrew Cuomo appeared to recognize that the economy needs to reopen, and quickly. Even Cuomo acknowledges that the holiday spike is fading.

  

  Notably, the spike in cases from the pre-holiday period is already beginning to subside. This, coupled with all of those warnings about a post-holiday case surge, had led to suspicions that the American public has been gaslighted – or at least intentionally misled, by federal authorities intent on doing whatever they can to tarnish President Trump’s legacy.

  Meanwhile, and possibly related, vaccination rates worldwide aren’t off to a great start – while reports of healthcare professionals and others who refuse to take it have been rolling in.

  

  Yet, despite liberal leaders’ sudden post-inauguration interest in reopening, they seem to be ignoring the new boogeyman – the new “mutated” strains from the UK and South Africa, which have caused a good deal of panic among public health officials (whether warranted or not). 

  And since the US has administered fewer than 25MM vaccines, more of these COVID “variants” are setting off alarms – causing vaccine maker Moderna announcing the development of a ‘booster’ shot to protect against both mutants.

  Teachers’ unions, meanwhile, are increasingly opposed to lawmakers pushing to return to in-person instruction within 100 days.

  According to Northwestern University epidemiologist Sadiya Khan, who spoke with Bloomberg, “We’re just asking to go backwards by easing restrictions without focusing on achieving herd immunity with vaccination.” The doctor is an epidemiologist at the Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine in Chicago.”It’s very fragile,” she said referring to the COVID economy.

  Perhaps things would be less ‘fragile’ if Democratic leaders’ sudden push to reopen didn’t have the most suspicious timing in the known universe, and California (and other states) were more transparent about whose ‘science’ they’re following.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 21:05

• Milking The Capitol Melee For All It's Worth
  Milking The Capitol Melee For All It’s Worth

  Authored by Jacob G. Hornberger via The Future of Freedom Foundation (emphasis ours),

  Not surprisingly, leftists are milking the January 6 Capitol melee for all its worth. There is a simple reason for that: they wish to use it to introduce a new wave of domestic tyranny into America, just as Republicans did after the 9/11 attacks. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they start referring to the melee as simply 1/6.

  

  That’s why they continue to describe the melee as an insurrection, revolution, rebellion, sedition, terrorism, invasion, and a grave attempt to destroy our democratic system and overthrow the government. It’s clear, according to leftists, that the intent of the “invaders” was to take control over the reins of the federal government and make Donald Trump king. I wouldn’t even be surprised if they determine that Russia was behind the “invasion.”

  Thus, don’t be surprised to see a new version of the USA PATRIOT Act. Anyway, the original one is getting a bit old in the tooth. And don’t be surprised to see a renewed and reinvigorated “war on terrorism,” albeit here in the United States, with increased secret surveillance, suppression of speech, indefinite incarceration, torture, and even perhaps assassination (a power that the Supreme Court has upheld with respect to both foreigners and Americans).

  Moreover, don’t be surprised when the leftists use the Capitol melee to justify more anti-gun tyranny. Never mind that the “revolutionaries” never even fired a shot. They could have and, therefore, that’s a good enough reason for leftists to enact some more tyrannical gun control. Americans obviously understand this because they were buying guns in droves before Biden took power.

  One thing is certain: There will be increasing destruction of liberty in America, owing to the leftist reaction to what the Trumpsters did in the Capitol.

  The idea is to never let a good crisis or emergency go to waste. What better time to enact tyrannical controls than during crises or emergencies? If they are enacted in ordinary times, people might object to having their liberty destroyed. During crises and emergencies, many people let their fear induce them to trade their liberty for security.

  Our American ancestors understood this. That’s why there is no crisis or emergency exception in the original Constitution or the Bill of Rights. Our ancestors understood that crises and emergencies have always been the time-honored way by which people lose their liberties, to their own government.

  One of the big precedents for this phenomenon, of course, was Adolf Hitler and the Reichstag Fire. Soon after Hitler took office, terrorists fire-bombed the Reichstag, which was Germany’s equivalent of our Congress. Even worse, the terrorists were communists, which made the situation doubly scary and dangerous.

  Hitler’s reaction was predictable. He went to the Reichstag and requested emergency powers to deal with the communist-terrorist crisis. When he met with resistance among members of the Reichstag, he went ballistic, screaming and berating them for not understanding the serious nature of the crisis facing Germany. Giving him temporary emergency powers would enable him to wage war on terrorism and win it.

  The Reichstag gave Hitler what he wanted. Germany was never the same again, until after it was defeated in World War II. Giving Hitler those emergency powers plunged the nation into years of darkness.

  There are some who say that Hitler himself instigated the Reichstag attack in order to provide the pretext for seeking emergency powers. (Would public officials really do such a thing?) Regardless, the lesson is clear: Public officials use emergencies and crises to expand power and destroy liberty.

  We are now witnessing, once again, that phenomenon playing out here in the United States. A “crisis” is being used to make Americans afraid, very afraid. And then comes the additional layer of tyranny and oppression, which the afraid people go along with and even support. It’s an old racket, even going back before Hitler and the Reichstag Fire.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 20:45

• Thanks To COVID-19, China Is Now The World Leader For Foreign Direct Investment
  Thanks To COVID-19, China Is Now The World Leader For Foreign Direct Investment

  China is now the world’s “top destination” for foreign direct investment (“FDI”). FDI captures things like foreign companies building infrastructure and making acquisitions of local companies.

  The shift came as a result of – wait for it – the Covid-19 pandemic amplifying “an eastward shift in the center of gravity of the global economy”, according to the Wall Street Journal.

  New investments by overseas businesses into the U.S. fell 49% in 2020 as a result of the pandemic. China saw its direct investments rise 4% over the same period of time. The success is being attributed to how the country (supposedly) handled the pandemic better than the U.S. 

  The numbers, heavily influenced by the global pandemic, “underline China’s move toward the center of a global economy long dominated by the U.S.,” the WSJ wrote.

  

  Foreign investments into the U.S. peaked at $472 billion in 2016, while at the same time foreign investments in China totaled $134 billion. Since then, investments in China have continued to rise and investments in the U.S. have continued to fall. Over the last 4 years, the Trump administration discouraged investment in China and put Chinese investors on notice that investing in the U.S. would carry new national security scrutiny.

  Daniel Rosen, founding partner of Rhodium Group, an independent research firm in New York, said there’s little room for concern: “I don’t think one can say anything confidently about the impact of the FDI downturn in the U.S., compared to all the other hits on the U.S. economy.”

  He continued: “It is natural that foreign investment would decline sharply in the U.S. under the circumstances because it has an open, market economy, while China doesn’t. There is no reason to be concerned about the outlook for the FDI in the United States providing that the U.S. is sticking with its basic open-market competitive system.”

  Major names like Honeywell International and Adidas were among companies who invested more in China during the pandemic.

  

  James Zhan, Unctad’s director of investment and enterprise, doesn’t see a respite for the U.S., or other countries that have seen FDI fall, anytime soon. He said: “Investors are likely to remain cautious in committing capital. The road to full FDI recovery will be bumpy.”

  Joseph Joyce, professor of international relations and economics at Wellesley College, said: “Companies are reassessing their policies about global supply chains, about foreign markets, about their own use of technology. The pandemic is making all these companies rethink the most basic assumption about where they are located.”

  East Asia attracted a third of all foreign investment globally in 2020, the report notes. It marks the largest share since records began in the 1980s. Meanwhile, it isn’t just the U.S. that saw huge drops in the west. The EU also saw a 71% drop in 2020 and the UK and Italy both saw “no new investment”. Germany saw a 61% drop. 

  

  While experts thought China could also see such a drop, their economy “reopened in April just as the U.S. and Europe started a series of continuing lockdowns and disruptions.”

  Even the Journal notes that it was China’s “ability to quickly control the coronavirus within its borders helped its economy rebound relatively quickly”. China also immediately rushed to shore up confidence from foreign investors at the beginning of 2020. China’s premier, Li Keqiang, told the country’s cabinet in March: “We must implement targeted policies to arrest the slide in foreign trade and foreign investment.”

  Other companies have simply found it difficult to leave China. Such was the case for Seoul Semiconductor, whose CEO, Hong Myeong-ki, simply said: “We were very dependent on China.”

  Tokyo based researcher Ding Ke noted that this reliance on China’s market for many companies kept them in the country: “They need to reduce overreliance on supply chains in one single market. But the bigger risk they identified is losing the China market.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 20:25

• The Myths Behind The "Capitalism Is Racist" Claim
  The Myths Behind The “Capitalism Is Racist” Claim

  Authored by Lipton Matthews via The Mises Institute,

  Though numerous studies prove the contrary, it is still widely assumed that capitalism perpetuates racism. Celebrities and academics incessantly broadcast the message that capitalism engenders racism. For example, recently on Twitter, superstar athlete Andre Iguodala informed his followers that capitalism cannot be divorced from racism: “Capitalism and racism go hand in hand. And you can’t have one without the other.” Equally scathing is the blistering declaration of sociologist Edna Bonacich in an academic review:

  “Capitalism and racism are closely connected….The huge wealth of America’s white-owned corporations rests on the backs of the hard labor of workers, many of whom are people of color.”

  

  Despite the popularity of anticapitalist rhetoric, it is woefully mistaken. Some entrepreneurs will express racist tendencies, but if they are determined to succeed in business, they have no alternative but to jettison such beliefs. Gary Becker pointed this out years ago in his frequently cited book The Economics of Discrimination. Becker posited that competition in the free market made it costly for companies to discriminate against individuals due to group identity. By refusing to hire qualified applicants because of race or sex, businesses would lose market share. Racists may object to employing people outside of their race, however, the crux of the matter is that self-interest trumps the collectivism of racism. Although racists may abhor minorities, the urge to accumulate wealth is far more potent than the desire to discriminate.

  Similarly, recent research corroborates Becker’s thesis that firms engaging in discrimination are less likely to remain competitive. Devah Pager in an innovative 2016 study testing the relationship between observed discrimination and firm longevity concludes that these firms show a greater propensity to fail:

  This study builds on the findings of an experimental audit study of racial discrimination in employment conducted in New York City in 2004….We see that 17 percent of nondiscriminatory establishments had failed by 2010, relative to 36 percent of those that did discriminate. The likelihood of going out of business for an employer who discriminated thus appears more than twice that of its nondiscriminating counterpart.

  Under capitalism the allure of profit serves as a deterrent to discrimination. For instance, the strident resistance of streetcar companies in the Jim Crow South to laws mandating them to segregate black customers poignantly demonstrates the market’s hostility to unjust discrimination. Economist Jennifer Roback in an article titled “Racism as Rent-Seeking” lucidly illustrates that these laws were a result of political entrepreneurship:

  Race relations in the U.S. South were in a state of flux in the period immediately after the Civil War and remained so until the turn of the century, when the “Jim Crow” system of rigid segregation was put into place….Municipal streetcars were segregated by law in many Southern cities….Prior to legislation, streetcar passengers in many cities sat wherever they wished, and next to anyone they wished. There is little to indicate that segregation was introduced in response to the demands of passengers, and in some cases, passengers of both races were dissatisfied with the new rule. Moreover, some of the streetcar companies themselves actively resisted segregation, on the grounds that segregation would be too expensive….White passengers seemed to be indifferent about segregation; streetcar companies resisted segregation; certainly, black passengers resisted segregation. Who then wanted it badly enough to work for its introduction? The most likely candidates are politicians who believed that there existed latent sentiment in favor of segregation among whites. Political entrepreneurs could offer white voters something they valued enough to vote for, but not enough to bear the costs privately. Through collective action, the costs of segregation could be imposed on the (disenfranchised) black passengers and the (regulated) streetcar companies.

  Roback refers to such tactics as “psychic rent seeking,’’ indicating that people leverage the force of government to acquire psychological benefits for themselves, despite incurring expenses for others.

  Notwithstanding the propaganda of leftists, rhetoric is no substitute for facts. History reveals that discrimination is primarily inspired by the corrupt agenda of rent seekers in cahoots with the government. South African leading economist Thomas Hazlett notes that this is usually the case:

  The South African gold rush made the natural synergy between white-owned capital and abundant black labor overpowering….White workers feared the large supply of African labor as the low-priced competition that it was. Hence, white tradesmen and government officials, including police, regularly harassed African workers to discourage them from traveling to the mines and competing for permanent positions. Beginning in the 1890s, the Chamber of Mines, a group of employers, complained regularly of this systematic discrimination and attempted to secure better treatment of black workers. Their gesture was not altruistic, nor founded on liberal beliefs….But here they had a clear economic incentive: labor costs were minimized where rules were color-blind. This self-interest was so powerful that it led the chamber to finance the first lawsuits and political campaigns against segregationist legislation.

  Likewise, South Africa during Apartheid is an excellent case study of the power of the market to eviscerate racism. To protect whites from competition, blacks were prevented by law from taking white-collar jobs. This not only limited their productivity, but also reduced the number of black employees able to take industrial jobs, thus creating artificial manpower shortages. As such the South African Employers Consultative Committee on Labour Affairs in 1977 lobbied for the elimination of discrimination based on race or color from all aspects of employment practices. Therefore, motivated by the goal to gain wealth, even vile racists will eschew racist policies.

  Certainly, some owners and entrepreneurs will find niches in which they can cater to racist clients. But for those who wish to attain high levels of growth and success, the data is clear that serving all customers and workers indiscriminately is the way to wealth. Essentially, the power of the free market is the best antidote to racism. Entrepreneurs seek to win in business, and engaging in discrimination hinged on race is the surest way to lose. Of note is also the fact that people who migrate from other countries irrespective of race become wealthier after relocating to America. Yet, ironically, many who lament the racist nature of American capitalism also insist that immigrants improve their lives by immigrating to the United States.

  Both theory and the empirical research show that a truly competitive marketplace is incongruous with racism, but, clearly, saying otherwise confers leftists with the benefits of expressing the “luxury beliefs” of elites.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 20:05

• Is This The Next Big Hedge Fund To Blow Up… And What Happens Next
  Is This The Next Big Hedge Fund To Blow Up… And What Happens Next

  Yesterday afternoon, when Gamestop and a handful of the most shorted small cap stocks exploded to never before seen levels, we reported that Melvin Capital had emerged as the first casualty of the Reddit/WallStreetBets forced squeeze/bull raids, when it received an emergency $2.75 rescue loan from its previous investors, Citadel and Point72. The reason why the Gabe Plotkin-founded fund was brought to its knees on the verge of a margin call liquidation, is that among its $12 billion in AUM (which is now well below $9 billion) the company had reported that it also owned puts for hundreds of millions of share equivalents targeting such retail daytrading darlings as GameStop, Bed Bath & Beyond and GSX.

  

  Had Melvin merely held shorts – which it doesn’t have to disclose under current SEC rules – it is unlikely that any of the ongoing fireworks would have ever taken place as the fund would have never attracted the attention of the WallStreetBets crowd which we now know specifically targeted Melvin Capital, and by extension its peers which held concentrated shorts in the same handful of stocks, which incidentally as we reported last Friday, just happened to be the most shorted Russell 3000 stocks, all of which had a short interest to float ratio of 50% or more: a recipe for explosive short squeezes in any market, and certainly in one as illiquid as this one.

  

  In any case, once WallStreetBets figured out that Melvin was shorting not only some of the biggest daytrading darlings but also some of the most shorted names, it wasn’t a stretch to conclude that it would become the target of a violent bull raid and that’s precisely what happened on Friday, when Gamestop stock soared – a move which was catalyzed by Citron’s Andrew Leff capitulating and stating he would no longer discuss his GME short – and again on Monday when the metaphorical dagger to Plotkin’s heart was the spike in GME stock to $159 at which point the fund found itself in a multibillion margin call, and only a bailout by Ken Griffin and Steve Cohen could prevent catastrophe.

  We already know all this. What we didn’t know is who would be next, and as we said yesterday, there most certainly will be other casualties.

  Well, we now have a candidate for hedge fund #2 to collapse as a result of the ongoing Reddit bull raids.

  Presenting Maplelane Capital, a $3.3 billion New York-based hedge fund which was established in 2010 which according to its description “focuses on a short term approach with active participation utilizing options trading.” Maplelane Capital was founded by Leon Shaulov – formerly of the disgraced tech-focused hedge fund Galleon whose boss Raj Rajaratnam was thrown in jail for insider trading on tips from a Goldman director over a decade ago – “with less than $50 million, mostly from his personal savings.”

  A quick look at the fund’s Form ADV reveals the following in its “Investment Strategies, Methods of Analysis and Risk of Loss”:

  The Adviser seeks attractive returns by utilizing a fundamental approach to equity investing across all market sectors. In addition, while the portfolios will generally be characterized as having a short-term holding period, there may be several positions that are held for a much longer holding period. It is anticipated that the Adviser will use significant amounts of leverage on behalf the Clients. The Adviser actively uses options trades to express views on the market and on individual stocks. The portfolios may have a significant short net exposure to equity markets, although at times, it may be relatively market neutral or have a significant long net exposure to equity markets.

  So a fund that uses “options” to “use significant amount of leverage on behalf of clients” and is “significantly short.”

  Alarm bells should be going off here… But in any case, we don’t care some much about the fund’s investing style or history –  readers curious about Maplelane’s history can read the following NYT piece. What we do care about is what it owns – or rather, is short – because a quick look at the company’s latest 13F would be more than sufficient to send r/wallstreetbets howling with rage: not only does MapleLane have many of the same shorts – via publicly disclosed puts – that Melvin Capital was almost liquidated over, but it has even more puts! Below is a table of Maplelane’s latest put positions.

  These, as above, are the “who’s who” of the most shorted stocks on Wall Street.

  

  In short (no pun intended), all the pain that Melvin Capital is currently going through, may befall Maplelane, if it hasn’t already: our only indication of how the fund is doing YTD is a brief mention in the WSJ saying that the fund is “down for the year.” Worse: with an even deeper book of puts, the r/wallstreetbets community will now have even more stocks to ramp up in expectation of forcing a short squeeze either at Maplelane, or any other hedge fund that shared an idea dinner with Leon Shaulov and decided to piggyback on his shorts.

  So what happens then?

  Let’s say Maplelane is currently nursing massive P&L losses and it is just a day or so from a terminal margin call, which will force the fund to come up with billions or be liquidated by its prime broker. Unless Maplelane is very close with Citadel, SAC pardon Point72 or another huge and very liquid hedge fund, Shaulov will have no choice but to start dumping its long to fund its margin call.

  Not surprisingly, at least one member of r/wallstreetbets figured out that this is precisely what happened back in 2008 when hedge funds that were crushed by the financial crisis, siloed out their most illiquid assets and had no choice but to sell their most liquid, and best performing ones. Hence the correct observation that if the short squeeze at Melvin Capital continues, “Melvin has to liquidate their other positions if they have to cover these shorts.”

  

  Yet for once (it would appear), wallstreetbets is actually behind the market, because a quick look at some of the industry’s favorite longs shows that they got hammered just as the most shorted names were soaring, as hedge fund sharks – smelling blood in the water – starting taking bites out of their wounded peers. Smid-cap hedge fund growth darlings like Roku, Peloton and Square tumbled as much as 6% on Tuesday as the short squeeze rampage entered into its third day. Not coincidentally, Bloomberg notes that Goldman’s Hedge Fund VIP ETF which tracks hedge funds’ most popular stocks, slumped for a fourth straight day, the longest stretch since October even as the company’s basket of most-shorted names soared 15% during the same period.

  

  “The recent squeeze in heavily shorted stocks has been nothing short of extraordinary,” said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at Bay Crest Partners. “If shorts cause too much pain, there is usually some repercussion on the other side as longs have to be sold to offset losses.”

  Why? Because these are among the top long holdings of such hedge funds as Melvin and… Maplelane. In other words, these are the stocks that will be liquidated next if any of a number of hedge funds caught in the massive squeeze has to liquidate their short book.

  And once the reflexive selling of long to cover shorts begins, it will only escalate in a feedback loop that leads to gross deleveraging of the fund(s), more short covering, more long selling, while at the same time the prices of the most shorted stocks continues to soar.

  So will this happen? Well, that’s the $64 trillion question.

  Ultimately, nothing that is taking place is the fault of either hedge funds or redditors or robinhooders. No, the only entity at fault here is the Fed which has injected trillions and trillions in hopes of preserving the “market” while instead it merely made a grotesque mockery of what it used to be. As we noted yesterday, “what is remarkable is how many people are “surprised” by what is going on in the “market.” You throw $20 trillion stimulus at it, you nationalize the bond market, you break all links between price and fundamentals… what do you think happens?“

  What is remarkable is how many people are “surprised” by what is going on in the “market”

  You throw $20 trillion stimulus at it, you nationalize the bond market, you break all links between price and fundamentals…

  what do you think happens

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  One thing we do know will happen, is that sooner or later it will all end in tears, whether with stocks limit up or down. Meanwhile, one may as well take advantage of this terminally broken market and make some money, as one hedge fund after another blows up.

  Oh, remember that basket of most shorted Russell 3000 stocks we put together on Friday and urged readers to buy ahead of precisely this kind of market action? Well, it has more than doubled just two days later…

  

  … and if Maplelane or some other hedge fund caught massively short is forced to liquidate in a margin call supernova, it is guaranteed that this basket will only keep rising for the foreseeable future. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 19:53

• 'They're Wasting Our Time': Rand Paul Shreds 'Unconstitutional' Trump Impeachment, Lists Examples Of 'Democrat Incitement'
  ‘They’re Wasting Our Time’: Rand Paul Shreds ‘Unconstitutional’ Trump Impeachment, Lists Examples Of ‘Democrat Incitement’

  Kentucky GOP Senator Rand Paul shredded Congressional Democrats over the second impeachment of former President Trump, arguing in a floor speech in a procedural motion to ‘table or kill’ the proceedings that “Democrats are about to drag our great country down into the gutter of rancor and vitriol the likes of which has never been seen in our nation’s history,” adding “It’s almost as if they have no ability to exist except in opposition to Donald Trump”

  Sen. @RandPaul:

  “Democrats are about to drag our great country down into the gutter of rancor and vitriol the likes of which has never been seen in our nation’s history… It’s almost as if they have no ability to exist except in opposition to Donald Trump.” pic.twitter.com/kiCimV0GIX

  — Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) January 26, 2021

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  Paul then argued that Democrats are guilty of the exact ‘incitement’ they’ve accused Trump of – suggesting that “No Democrat will honestly ask whether Bernie Sanders incited the shooter that nearly killed Steve Scalise,” and “No Democrat will ask whether Maxine Waters incited violence when she literally told her supporters” to confront Trump officials in public.”

  Sen. Rand Paul:

  “No Democrat will honestly ask whether Bernie Sanders incited the shooter that nearly killed Steve Scalise.”

  “No Democrat will ask whether Maxine Waters incited violence when she literally told her supporters” to confront Trump officials in public. pic.twitter.com/ytDKsscxgh

  — Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) January 26, 2021

  More: 

  Sen. Rand Paul:

  “I disagreed. I don’t think Congress should overturn the Electoral College but impeaching or censoring, or expelling a member of Congress you disagree with? Is the truth so narrow that only you know the truth?” pic.twitter.com/lJnSgKkfHz

  — Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) January 26, 2021

  Ultimately, 45 GOP Senators voted to kill the impeachment – meaning they agree that it’s unconstitutional, while five GOP Senators voted to table it and proceed with the impeachment; Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse and Pat Toomey.

  It would require another 12 GOP Senators to convict and impeach Trump – now a private citizen.

  Earlier in the week, Paul wrote that the impeachment trial was a “farce and should be dismissed before it is even allowed to begin,” adding that the Senate doesn’t have the authority to hold an impeachment trial for a former president.

  “It shows they don’t have the votes and we’re basically wasting our time,” said Paul, who believes the Senate roll call would show that over a third of the chamber thinks the proceeding is unconstitutional.

  Republican senators have criticized the president for his actions on Jan. 6, but many have signaled opposition to voting to convict the president. At least 30 Senate Republicans have said they are opposed to or leaning against convicting Mr. Trump, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of senators and their public comments, leaving few open to potentially casting a guilty vote.

  “I doubt there are seven, quite honestly. I’m certain there aren’t 17, at least not today,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R., N.D.). He cited concerns over the legality of trying a former president, as well as whether Mr. Trump’s actions, while wrong, constituted incitement. –WSJ

  Democrats, meanwhile, say the trial is warranted and that Congressional Republicans are focusing on the constitutional question to avoid having to weigh the impeachment on its merits – much like most of the judges who tossed out election challenges based on technical factors.

  “They don’t want to be held accountable on that vote, so they’re going to try to make it another argument that [it’s] all about the Constitution,” said Democratic Senator Dick Durbin.

  This will be the first ever impeachment trial for a former president. It’s scheduled to begin in earnest the week of Feb. 8, approximately one month after the US Capitol riot which left five people dead and temporarily disrupted the counting of the electoral votes.

  Watch Paul’s entire speech below:

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 19:46

• Former Boeing Employee Says 737 Max "Still Not Fixed" 
  Former Boeing Employee Says 737 Max “Still Not Fixed” 

  Boeing’s troubled 737 Max returned to US skies last month. American Airlines was the first domestic carrier to fly the Max and has since operated more than 200 flights. While other domestic and international carriers gear up for a much wider re-launch of the aircraft, a former senior manager at Boeing’s 737 Max plant in Seattle has published a new report warning that the Max is “still not fixed.” 

  Ed Pierson, the report’s author, retired from Boeing in August 2018 and worked at the Max factory in Renton, Washington, claims more investigations are needed into the aircraft’s electrical system and production quality problems at the factory. 

  

  Pierson alleges that the US and European regulators have primarily ignored factors that he points out in the report, which may have played a role in Lion Air flight JT610 and Ethiopian Airlines flight ET302 crashes that killed 346 people. He links both crashes back to conditions at the factory in Renton.

  Pierson firmly believes Boeing’s effort to redesign Max’s flight control system, called MCAS software, ensures a single sensor failure would not happen in flight is not enough. 

  “The paper underscores the likely role a chaotic and dangerously unstable production environment played in the accidents. Mr. Pierson also puts forth three other plausible accident scenarios not addressed in the accident investigations. The 14-page report includes a timeline and an analysis that ties the two 737 MAX airplane crashes together in ways not previously reported. Most importantly, Mr. Pierson’s analysis raises serious doubts as to the safety of the 737 MAX. Alarmingly, the FAA’s recertification fixes do not address the problems identified in the report,” the report’s abstract reads.

  In late 2019, Pierson testified during a House Transportation Committee hearing on both Max crashes where he described the Renton factory as “chaotic” and “dysfunctional.” 

  With the planes returning to the air, he is worried that Boeing and regulators have overlooked many of the issues he pointed out. 

  In the report, he believes the production defects of critical Max parts were defected when they entered service, adding that the aircraft’s complex wiring systems may have contributed to the random deployment of the MCAS system in flight. 

  Pierson said the MCAS sensor failures contributed to both crashes but asked why they were happening to new aircraft. 

  All of this suggests, Pierson explained, “point back to where these airplanes were produced, the 737 factory”.

  Pierson’s report was analyzed by famed pilot Chesley Sullenberger who said the “report is very disturbing, about manufacturing issues in the Boeing factories that go well beyond just the Max, and also affect… the previous version of the 737.” 

  “Like electricity, Boeing and the FAA have taken the path of least resistance throughout the entire design, development, certification, production, and now recertification of the 737 MAX,” Pierson said in the report. 

  “The design of the 737 MAX, MCAS software and the failure to provide vital information and training to pilots did not trigger these accidents. Neither did corporate decision making made years ago, unethical behavior, deceptive marketing, or a misguided leadership culture that prioritized profits over safety. Nor did deregulation, regulatory capture, or a completely broken aircraft certification process. In fact, all of these things contributed mightily to these tragedies. Unfortunately, every MAX airplane ever manufactured shares this same wretched history. The pilots are certainly not to blame. They did everything they could to save the lives of the people who trusted them. The triggering event for these crashes was a defective AOA Sensor part, and quite possibly, a malfunctioning electrical system stemming from a dangerously unstable production environment,” he said.” 

  Pierson concludes: “We can either investigate these production problems and fix them, or we can wait for another disaster.” 

  * * * 

  Read The Full Report Here: 737 MAX – Still Not Fixed

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 19:45

• Are EVs Good For The Environment? …Mostly Not
  Are EVs Good For The Environment? …Mostly Not

  Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

  The idea Electric vehicles are less damaging to the environment has been broadly accepted by many people as fact. The notion EVs are good for the planet is a key factor for many of those deciding to buy an electric car. This debate has become rather political with a recent article in Barron’s pointing out that some of the research damning electric cars has been funded by Saudi oil interest. Part of the argument flowing out of this centers on the idea that policies incentivizing electric-car production will lead to the creation of more carbon emissions during coming years than if we were to instead encourage the use of efficient gasoline engines.

  

  EVs Still Charged By Electricity From Fossil Fuel

  It is not surprising that people are going to try and shape conclusions and public opinion to serve their strategic interests. The direction society takes is a high-stakes game since the EU, Japan, Korea, and 110 other countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. This is why countries such as China have extended $100 billion thus far in EV subsidies, the fact is China wants to make many of these vehicles. This is the main reason shares in Chinese EV manufacturers such as NIO and Xpeng have followed Tesla stock higher in recent months.

  Adding to claims of agenda “propaganda” is the fact that a lengthy and detailed EV study by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), published in the scientific journal “Nature Communications,” was paid for by oil giant Saudi Aramco, which counts China as its largest customer. This indicates how little transparency exists around private companies’ financial or other involvement in the U.S. Department of Energy’s research. Some analysts say that Aramco’s role in producing the research is a potential conflict of interest and that the relationship between Aramco and ORNL highlights a broader concern about how some companies fund scientific research only to directly support their business interests. 

  As this article is being written those ready to curse my take on this issue are gathering in the wings. On one side we have those that think EVs are the solution, on the other is an even larger group ready to scream about freedom of choice or how climate change is a hoax. To the first group, I say you are being deceived by those conveniently forgetting that most electricity is still generated by fossil fuel and that EVs also have a few other issues. To the second group, my message is, self-indulgent, self-centered, people with the attitude the world is their oyster and the hell with everyone else. Some of these people are not even open to the idea that what humans do here on earth has any effect at all on our climate.

  

  Gas-guzzlers Are Often Used As Family Cars

  As a strong environmentalist, I get tired of hearing that “EVs are good for the environment. “While my stand may rile those promoting EVs my attitude towards the four-door pickups driven by many average citizens angers and appalls many others. The fact is vehicle manufacturers maximize profits by prioritizing these big-ticket gas-guzzlers. These trucks are not used for work and should carry a heavy “poor mileage tax.” All the high horsepower petroleum vehicles that fill our streets with engines able to get us from stoplight to stoplight in the blink of an eye and the huge low mile per gallon vehicles often occupied by one person are the bane of environmentalist.

  As to whether EVs are as environmentally friendly as many people claim is a topic that is hotly debated. The chart near the top of this article screams that they are not. Electricity demand is still rising across the world, most nuclear plants getting very old, and the most ecologically friendly sources are running full out. This means the slack is being taken up by fossil-fuel generated plants. Under the idea of, last in first out, this would mean that almost all the juice being pumped into EVs comes from fossil-fuel generated juice. To make matters worse, other issues exist.

  Below are a few comments, or parts of comments, about EVs that have been gathered from different recent articles. I have not fully researched all these but they do add to my doubts about these vehicles.

  • The Greenwashing Industrial Complex is one of the evilest and fraudulent scams of the 21st century. As an example, the pollution and environmental destruction created by the manufacturing and disposal of EV batteries, and also the magnets for power-generating windmills, is 10X worse than pollution created by fossil-fuel vehicles.

  • In Germany about 40% of the energy mix is produced by coal and 30% by renewables – a mid-sized electric car must be driven for 125,000 km, on average, to break even with a diesel car, and 60,000 km compared to a petrol car. It takes nine years for an electric car to be greener than a diesel car, assuming an annual average mileage of 13,500 km. Most consumers will have bought a new car by then. The case is similar in the U.S. but less pronounced in nuclear-powered France.

  • Battery production causes more environmental damage than carbon emissions alone. Consider dust, fumes, wastewater, and other environmental impacts from cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of the Congo; water shortages and toxic spills from lithium mining in Latin America, which can alter ecosystems and hurt local communities; a heavily polluted river due to nickel mining in Russia; or air pollution in northeastern China, as mentioned above.

  • There isn’t enough cobalt in the world to replace even half of the current ICE vehicles.  Never mind the fact they have kids mining the stuff in the Congo. InsideSources, says, every EV battery contains cobalt, with most of it mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This area has been an ugly mess for years as the Congo government and armed militants duke it out over the control of mines. Much of the DRC cobalt is then hauled to South Africa and shipped to China for processing.

  Also flowing into the issue of ” less damaging to the environment” is something recently brought to my attention, and that is, EVs tend to rapidly eat through tires. While many people may not think this is a big deal, it is. Since electric car batteries are heavier than petrol engines they need a more robust tire. Also, because of their accelerating faster from a standstill. If you want to take advantage of that without too much wear then you need a more robust tire, these cost more, and it has been said, you are lucky if you get 20,000 miles out of a set of tires. All this is addressed at, https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-electric-cars-wear-out-tires-faster-than-fossil-fuel-cars

  

  Pollution From Tires Is A Growing EV Issue

  Like many people I had forgotten or brushed aside the thought something as simple and common as the tire was such a problem. This should have been high on my radar because years ago I was given a building simply because it had been filled with tires. The officials in my city were all over the owner to get rid of them. It cost me a bit of money and a lot of work to have them hauled away and properly recycled. With that in mind, below are a few of the many articles voicing pollution issues concerning tires.

  Homeguides.sfgate.com claims; Toxins released from tire decomposition, incineration, or accidental fires can pollute the water, air, and soil. While 42 states regulate tire disposal to some degree, eight states have no restrictions on what you must do with your discarded tires. Even with laws in place, illegal dumping still occurs, presenting negative environmental impacts.

  Tiretechnologyinternational.com states; Air pollution from tire wear particles can be 1,000 times worse than what comes out of a car’s exhaust, Emissions Analytics found harmful particle matter from tires is a serious environmental problem. What is even more frightening is that while exhaust emissions have been tightly regulated for many years, tire wear is not. With the increasing growth in sales of heavier SUVs and battery-powered electric cars, non-exhaust emissions are a growing problem.

  And, www.politico.eu/article/tires, delves into how driving affects the environment in ways beyond the well-known pollutants spewing from tailpipes and leaking from engines. Tires shed tiny pieces of plastic as they wear down, accounting for about 10 percent of the microscopic pieces of the pollutant found in the sea, according to one estimate. Tire waste was addressed in the European Commission’s Plastics Strategy earlier this year. The EU executive is looking into how to cut down on microplastics that may be coming from tires and is considering regulations.

  With all the above in mind, the buzz in EV trading over the last couple of weeks has interestingly been surrounding legacy automakers like General Motors and, even Ford moving strongly in the direction of manufacturing more EVs. This may someday be seen as a huge environmental misstep. The best answer may be a shift to more efficient gasoline engines in smaller vehicles.  

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 19:25

• Germany Poised To Cut International Air Travel "To Almost Zero" On Virus Variant Fears
  Germany Poised To Cut International Air Travel “To Almost Zero” On Virus Variant Fears

  Alarmed over recently emerged strains of coronavirus which are said to be more infectious, Germany is mulling taking the drastic step of cutting all international air travel in and out of the country to “almost zero,” according to the AFP.

  Interior Minister Horst Seehofer announced Tuesday the government is now reviewing the implementation of further “drastic measures” amid restrictions in the country which took effect in November. He cited the example of Israel which recently went to a full-on 2nd lockdown of the entire country.

  “The danger from the numerous virus mutations forces us to consider drastic measures,” Seehofer said to the Bild newspaper. “That includes significantly stricter border checks, especially at the borders of high-risk areas, but also reducing air travel to Germany to almost zero, as Israel is currently doing,” he added.

  

  “The people in Germany who accept the tough restrictions expect us to protect them as best we can from an explosion in infection numbers,” Seehofer said.

  Chancellor Angela Merkel appeared to back a plan that would effectively shut down all borders, saying in new comments the government will take “certain precautions at border,” according to her address before a meeting of conservative CDU/CSU bloc lawmakers.

  “Everyone understands that now is not the time to travel,” she added. Currently Germany has had over two million COVID-19 infections and more than 52,000 deaths from the virus.

  A week ago Merkel announced that renewed pandemic restrictions, especially the closure of schools and ‘non-essential’ stores and markets, would last until at least mid-February.

  BREAKING Germany is considering to stop all international flights https://t.co/xJiLg9prI5

  — AIRLIVE (@airlivenet) January 26, 2021

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  The proposal of shutting off borders altogether also comes as there’s been widespread disappointment at the slowness of a vaccine rollout in Europe, also amid worrisome reports of severe adverse effects and even deaths among elderly patients reportedly from the shot, particularly out of Norway in the middle of this month amid the rollout of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.

  A ban on most or all international flights would have immediate and major repercussions for the aviation industry and global travel, given Germany remains a central international hub of flights across Europe but also the rest of the world, including to the Middle East and Africa.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 19:05

• "Your Order Is A Direct Attack": Utah Tribe Seeks Exemption From Biden Drilling Pause
  “Your Order Is A Direct Attack”: Utah Tribe Seeks Exemption From Biden Drilling Pause

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A Native American tribe called on the Biden administration to “immediately amend” a White House executive order “to provide an exception for energy permits and approvals on Indian lands.”

  “The Ute Indian Tribe and other energy-producing tribes rely on energy development to fund our governments and provide services to our members,” the Ute Indian Tribe said in a letter to Acting Secretary of the Interior Scott de la Vega last week. “Your order is a direct attack on our economy, sovereignty, and our right to self-determination. Indian lands are not federal public lands.

  “Any action on our lands and interests can only be taken after effective tribal consultation.”

  One of Biden’s orders requires the agency to “conduct a review of the monument boundaries and conditions of the Grand Staircase-Escalante, Bears Ears, Northeast Canyons, and Seamounts Marine National Monuments” and will be done “in consultation with other agencies and Tribal governments, to determine whether restoration of the monument boundaries and conditions would be appropriate,” according to a statement from the Interior Department on Jan. 21,

  The Epoch Times has reached out to the agency for comment.

  

  The Ute tribal lands produce about 45,000 barrels of crude oil per day in the Uintah Basin, along with about 900 million cubic feet per day of natural gas, according to a document the tribe filed with the Bureau of Indian Affairs in 2017, Reuters reported.

  The tribe added that the order was issued “in violation [of] our government-to-government relationship,” as well as of previous federal directives about coordinating with Native American tribal governments.

  The Jan. 20 executive order suspended the authority of Interior Department offices to issue new fossil fuel permits and leases—a move that could be a first step in delivering on Biden’s campaign promise to ban all new federal drilling permits.

  “The Order does not impact existing ongoing operations under valid leases and does not preclude the issuance of leases, permits, and other authorizations by those specified. In addition, any actions necessary in the event of an incident that might pose a threat to human health, welfare, or safety will continue,” the Interior Department said in the statement.

  Other Native American tribes—including the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation in North Dakota—are also big producers of oil and gas and might push back against the order.

  Some GOP lawmakers, meanwhile, said the move to suspend oil and natural gas drilling will imperil tens of thousands of American jobs and raise energy prices for U.S. families.

  Reuters contributed to this report.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 18:45

• "Inside The Industry, We're All Pretty Panicked": Global Semi Shortage Continues To Slam Auto Industry
  “Inside The Industry, We’re All Pretty Panicked”: Global Semi Shortage Continues To Slam Auto Industry

  The global semiconductor shortage continues to put significant pressure on the auto industry, where manufacturers are rushing to try and find how they can fix (and in the future back up) their supply chains. 

  Major players like VW, Toyota and GM are still suffering from a shortage of chips that are becoming more common in everyday vehicles. The drain on the supply chain has come from a corresponding rise in the sales of gaming consoles, TVs and computers – mostly as a result of the pandemic. The chips are now being used in everything from vehicle entertainment centers to anti-lock brakes. 

  Carlos Tavares, chief executive of Stellantis, told the Financial Times: “I am here to protect the fact that my company is treated fairly. I will look for all possible solutions. If I need to I will fight back [to ensure its chip contracts are met].”

  

  The unexpected disruption is the first time the industry has truly thought long and hard about the supply chain it uses for semiconductors. Only about 10% of semiconductor fabrication plants are used for automotive parts, FT notes. Since there is no “quick fix”, the shortage is expected to drag on for “at least” 6 months. Companies like Taiwan Semiconductor are, at the same time, still trying to address fallout from U.S. sanctions. 

  One China based supplier told FT: “The sanctions meant some clients redirected their orders from SMIC to other places, such as TSMC. Inside the industry, we are all pretty panicked, because the scope of the chip shortage is too big, and affects too many types. In the short term, we can’t see any way of resolving it.”

  As a result, more than 280,000 vehicles have already been put on hold. As many as 500,000 vehicles could be affected in total, according to IHS market forecasts. 

  

  Richard Dixon, senior principal analyst at IHS Markit, added: “Everything is run so tightly in semiconductor fabrication plants that you always get this issue when there is a demand surge especially after a downturn.” 

  Automakers are left scrambling, trying to make sure that the chips they do have are being used in their most profitable vehicles, the report says. At the same time, chipmakers like NXP and Renesas are looking to increase prices – not only as a result of the demand, but as also as a result of the rising cost of raw materials. And rising costs could be a small problem compared to where some analysts think the next supply chain bottleneck is going to come from.

  “After semiconductors, the next one is going to be potentially when we run out of rare-earth materials to make batteries. There is always that next thing that they have got to keep their eye on,” said Joseph McCabe, chief executive of AutoForecast Solutions.

  Recall, just days ago we noted that VW lost production of “tens of thousands” of vehicles due to the chip shortage. 

  VW’s China head, Stephan Wollenstein, commented Wednesday: “It was hurting us already in December and we lost some 10,000 cars since then simply because we lost 50,000 cars in production in December because of some chips.”

  

  For VW, the impact has been felt the most in vehicles that use the automaker’s Electronic Stability Program, “a system of sensors that works with a car’s Anti-lock Braking System to prevent the wheels seizing up after an unexpected swerve.”

  “You see how vulnerable our industries are if only one chip is missing. This will unfortunately continue in the first quarter,” Wollenstein continued. 

  China is the world’s largest auto market and a critical market for VW, who has about 40% of its vehicle operations in the country. In China, VW delivered 3.85 million cars in 2020, down 9.1% from the year prior as a result of the pandemic. 

  2021 was thought to be a year where many automakers could play catch-up, but the chip shortage could stand in the way of an easy recovery for some automakers. We first reported just days ago that the ongoing global chip shortage was wreaking havoc with the auto industry, which has become far more reliant on semiconductors due to “smart cars”, than it ever has been.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 18:25

• Musk Tweet Sends Gamestop Soaring (Even More) After Hours
  Musk Tweet Sends Gamestop Soaring (Even More) After Hours

  Update 4:40pm: Well that escalated quickly. Just 20 minutes after Musk’s tweet, GME exploded to $240…

  

  *  *  *

  Update 4:20pm: Just one hour ago (see below) we said that it is “increasingly likely that GME will hit $200” thanks to the stock entering the peak OTM vol “gamma gravity”. Well, moments ago, GME just hit a new all time high $194.50, surging about $44 after hours and nearing the $200 gamma level on, drumroll, an Elon Musk tweet that merely said…

  Gamestonk!! https://t.co/RZtkDzAewJ

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … That one tweet alone added over $3 billion in market cap to Gamespot (or perhaps GammaSpot) whose stock price may crush not just hedge fund but also dealers who are painfully short gamma in the name and will be forced to buy a lot more either now or when the stock opens for trading tomorrow.

  In short, we are almost certain to see a $200+ print tomorrow.

  * * *

  For the third day in a row, Gamestop has exploded higher, and after a brief period of rangebound trading the stock has almost doubled, surging from $90 to as high as $144 (at which point it was halted), dropped and resumed its move higher.

  

  While there has been nothing fundamental to explain the latest move higher – the bullish tweets by Chamath Palihapitiya and Cameron Winklevoss were discussed earlier – the main reason cited for the latest melt up, in addition to a continued short squeeze of course, is that GME has now fallen in the notorious “gamma vortex”, and one look at the highest strike price in this Friday’s expiring options confirms this: with less than 300 $200 Jan 29 puts traded, there has been an absolute frenzy of calls, which at last check were above 70,000 and rising rapidly.

  

  A quick look at the volume at price for the $200 calls shows the insanity that is being unleashed here…

  

  … and with dealers clearly short gamma, they are now rushing to buy the stock creating the infamous feedback loop where the more OTM call activity takes place, the higher the stock rises (amid dealer delta hedging), leading to even more call buying and so on.

  What this means in English is that at this point it is increasingly likely that GME will hit $200 as the gamma gravity is activated (and for those who still need an explainer, please read “All You Ever Wanted To Know About Gamma, Op-Ex, And Option-Driven Equity Flows“).

  The only question we have is whether Melvin Capital is still short the stock, and whether it is about to need an even bigger bailout from Citadel and Steve Cohen. And, as a follow up, at what GME price will Citadel and Point72 themselves require a bailout from the NY Fed…

  At what GME price does the NY Fed bailout Citadel and SAC, er, Point72

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 18:08

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• EU Drops Recognition Of Juan Guaido As Venezuela's 'Interim President'
  EU Drops Recognition Of Juan Guaido As Venezuela’s ‘Interim President’

  The European Union has now officially abandoned its Venezuela mythology which deemed Juan Guaido as ‘Acting President’ or ‘Interim President’ rather than the man who actually rules the country, Nicolás Maduro (like it or not). This reaffirms a prior January 7th EU decision.

  On Monday the European Union issued a new statement which merely acknowledged Guaido as a “privileged interlocutor” despite having over the prior two years joined Washington in recognizing the opposition leader of parliament as ‘actual winner’ in the disputed re-election of President Nicolas Maduro at the end of 2018.

  

  “The EU repeats its calls for… the freedom and safety of all political opponents, in particular representatives of the opposition parties elected to the National Assembly of 2015, and especially Juan Guaido,” the statement said after a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels.

  “The EU considers them to be important actors and privileged interlocutors,” it added. Conspicuously absent were any references to Guaido as ‘interim president’. Ironically it was only last week that Guaido thanked the European Parliament for maintaining his status as ‘head of state’ in Venezuela. 

  More than mere symbolism, the issue’s importance lies in that “The status of interim president gives Guaido access to funds confiscated from Maduro by Western governments, as well as affording him access to top officials and supporting his pro-democracy movement domestically and internationally.”

  Though it’s as yet uncertain what the Biden White House’s official stance on Guaido will be, or if it will change, last week Biden’s nominee for secretary of state Anthony Blinken gave an early indicator.

  The European Union has described Juan Guaido as a “privileged interlocutor” but not interim president of #Venezuela.

  This is at odds with the US position, as Joe Biden insists that the US is still behind Guaido

  — Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) January 25, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Blinken told Senators last Tuesday that Guaido will still remain the recognized leader of the Latin American country in Washington’s eyes. He also said he agrees with the existing US policy of seeking to “increase pressure on the regime” of Maduro.

  This of course began under Trump when in January 2019 Guaido dubbed himself ‘Interim President’ and also ‘Acting President’ at the encouragement of Washington during Trump admin attempts to foment a military and popular uprising against Maduro. But Monday’s EU decision is likely to weigh heavy on near-term White House discussions on the issue.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 01/26/2021 – 01:30

• China, Blaming Covid, Is Erecting Border Walls With Myanmar And Vietnam
  China, Blaming Covid, Is Erecting Border Walls With Myanmar And Vietnam

  China is now starting to build and/or reinforce border walls near its Southeast borders – “stirring up controversy” with neighboring countries, according to a new report from Australia’s ABC.  While much of the focus in the U.S. over the last 4 years was decrying President Trump’s calls to build a wall domestically, China was doing the exact same thing on its border with Vietnam and Myanmar. 

  “It looks like a national program,” one Southeast Asia expert said. 

  The project in Vietnam, which is still being extended, has a 4.5 meter high iron fence topped with barbed wire. It was built between 2012 and 2017 and stretches 12 kilometers, the report says.

  

  Additionally, the country has also erected a 659 km fence alongside China’s 2,000 km border with Myanmar. The project was completed in December of last year, according to the report. In some cases “the walls are designed not just to keep the virus out, but to keep people in,” ABC reports. 

  The same expert argued that smuggling could be the main reason for erecting such walls. He noted that “illegal cross-border activity has been a major headache for both China and Vietnam since 1979″. The illicit activity includes trafficking of Vietnamese women to China. “At least” 100 girls were sent back to Vietnam from China every year, ABC had previously reported. Some, however, were stolen and/or sold – and never heard from again.

  China explains the wall by doing what most governments around the world have been doing for the last year – blaming Covid. “Before the pandemic, there was no wall, but only short wooden fences,” a YouTuber, who captured video of the wall along Myanmar, said. 

  You can see video of the border wall here:

   

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 23:59

• Hong Kong Stocks Soar On Flood Of Chinese Money
  Hong Kong Stocks Soar On Flood Of Chinese Money

  After a poor showing in 2020, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has roared back to life in 2021 and is the best performing index so far this year, thanks to a deluge of Chinese money. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index on Monday closed above 30,000 points for the first time in 20 months as a rally since late December powered by investors in mainland China gains momentum.

  

  Defying fears that China’s take over of Hong Kong would lead to a crash in local stocks, the Hang Seng has soared and as the Nikkei reports, signs suggest Chinese hunger for Hong Kong stocks will continue for the time being, with investors buying new-economy shares, such as Tencent Holdings, and stocks in other companies including China Mobile and Xiaomi, especially since their ability to list in the US remains in limbo for the foreseeable future.

  While these shares were dumped earlier this month after the U.S. imposed an investment ban on companies identified as having links to the country’s military, mainland investors have shifted out of China-listed A-shares to buy the cheaper Hong Kong-listed H-shares of mainland companies traded in the territory.

  Hong Kong’s benchmark index, which fell 3.4% last year and trailed far behind international and mainland Chinese indexes, is on course for its best January since 1989, when it climbed 14.3% according to the Nikkei. The Hang Seng’s gains so far, at 10.8%, are nearly quadruple those of the S&P 500 index. The Hang Seng closed on Monday at 30,159.01, although it dipped back below 30,000 on Tuesday after China’s unexpectedly withdrew funds from the financial system amid warnings about growth froth.

  The Chinese backstop is providing some assistance to the world’s cheapest major index that fell out favor as the coronavirus pandemic and a national security law imposed by Beijing in June following months of anti-government protests raised doubts over Hong Kong’s future as a global financial center.

  

  And now that momentum is back, so are the inflows into Hong Kong from China through the Stock Connect program, which allows mainland investors to buy shares on the city’s exchange. This number has already raced to a record $30.3 billion this month or about four times the 2020 monthly average. The buying this month also is a third of the entire net purchases of $87 billion made last year, according to Nikkei calculations.

  Yet just like in the US, where major banks are warning that a day of reckoning for market euphoria is near, analysts have cautioned that the pace of mainland buying will have to slow even though some of it is driven by the arbitrage opportunity the Hong Kong-listed shares offer and investors’ belief that the economic resurgence in the mainland will drive corporate earnings.

  Frank Benzimra, head of Asia equity strategy at Societe Generale in Hong Kong, said that since the inception of Stock Connect more than six years ago, there consistently has been southbound inflows, “with current volumes driven by investor hunger for new-economy stocks that have mushroomed in Hong Kong and money chasing beaten down stocks that face a U.S. investment ban.”

  He said that while he believes “inflows will continue as the Hong Kong market transforms into the Nasdaq of the East, the volumes won’t be as high as it is currently now.”

  Last Wednesday, the state-run China Securities Journal warned investors to be wary of a correction in Hong Kong, where institutional investors dominate, if stock valuations “deviate from fundamentals.”

  Stock Connect’s southbound turnover, which represents both the buying and selling of Hong Kong-listed shares through the exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, has exceeded $8 billion a day, representing 14% of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange’s volumes. That compares with a daily average volume of 10% in the second half of 2020.

  “We believe southbound [flows through Stock Connect] will play a greater role structurally in the Hong Kong market,” Morgan Stanley strategists wrote in a note last week. They cited three reasons for their:

  • First, Hong Kong provided the opportunity to invest in some of the largest mainland companies in the telecommunications, technology and entertainment sectors.
  • Second, the growing trend of U.S.-listed Chinese companies, including Alibaba Group Holding and JD. Com, holding a secondary listing in Hong Kong is luring investors from the mainland.
  • Third, an appreciating yuan gives room for authorities to allow currency outflows with Hong Kong — the first port of call for investors.

  Among the stocks that have been sharply bid up is Tencent, which is up a whopping 22.5% this month. Other favored targets include companies such as China Mobile, China Telecom and railway equipment maker CRRC Corp., all of which bore the brunt of the sell-off in the past two months after the U.S. banned Americans from trading in them.

  The top 20 stocks by southbound daily inflow this year through Jan. 19 has on average accounted for 43% of turnover on the Hong Kong exchange, compared with 7% for the same period last year, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. The figures are even higher for China Mobile and oil conglomerate CNOOC, accounting for 94% and 74%, respectively, of the volumes in Hong Kong, compared with 2% and 3% last year.

  As the Nikkei adds, the inflow into Hong Kong started to accelerate in recent weeks as more than 200 billion yuan ($31 billion) of new mutual funds raised so far this year is deployed, with allocations to Hong Kong likely to rise to half that amount, Citigroup analyst Yafei Tian said.

  “The higher interest in Hong Kong stocks could be due to a couple of reasons, including laggard performance versus A-shares, inauguration of [the] Biden administration easing concerns over U.S.-China tensions and attractive new economy exposures,” she said.

  Said buying helped Hong Kong-listed shares claw back steep discounts to their yuan-denominated versions trading in Shanghai or Shenzhen. Last October, the premium that yuan-denominated shares had over their Hong Kong counterparts surged to its highest level since 2009. The Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index, which measures the absolute price premium A-shares have over H-shares for the largest and most liquid mainland companies, soared to 149.37 points on Oct. 15. It has since come off that recent high and closed on Friday at 134.84.

  “A true value investor should now: Sell A-shares and buy H-shares,” Li Bei, the managing director of Shanghai Banxia Investment Management, wrote on the company’s official WeChat account. In 2020, “almost all asset classes in the world have achieved growth except for Hong Kong stocks,” she said. “H-shares have not felt the easing of overseas liquidity and the strong recovery of China’s economy.” She said the “undervaluation” of Hong Kong stocks is bigger among sanctioned companies, such as China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom and CNOOC.

  

  The infatuation that Chinese investors have with Hong Kong is not new: they have been the biggest supporters of Hong Kong stocks during the past year amid questions over the city’s future as a global financial center and as Western investors have pulled back. Beijing’s moves to erode the autonomy enjoyed by the city have hurt confidence, while months of social unrest and the pandemic have sent Hong Kong’s economy into a deep recession.

  Yet as global investors balked at investing in Hong Kong, money from the mainland has been flowing in. Almost $80 billion has flooded into the city through Stock Connect since the national security law came into effect on June 30. That compares with $170 billion that came in from China since the start of 2015 to June 2020.

  However, analysts caution that such exuberance has faded in the past. Mainland investors poured nearly $20 billion into Hong Kong in March last year after pandemic-induced selling sent markets into bear market territory, which is marked by a 20% fall from a recent peak.

  As Hong Kong shares lagged, investors turned their attention elsewhere, with inflows averaging just $3.5 billion over the next three months. Analysts warned that, while Chinese investors may continue buying, sustaining such momentum will be difficult. Still, analysts largely expect the Hong Kong’s benchmark index, where mainland companies hold a 60% weighting, to catch up with the economic recovery in China.

  “Broadly speaking, we are optimistic on the outlook for H-shares, given continued inflows from China and the positive trajectory for China economic growth,” said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in Hong Kong. “That points to a long-term earnings growth potential for many companies in H-shares, so we do see potential for further upside.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 23:37

• Here Are All Of Melvin Capital's Crushed Put Positions
  Here Are All Of Melvin Capital’s Crushed Put Positions

  Last Friday, in the aftermath of the Gamespot’s historic eruption which sent the stock from $40 to the mid-70s (before it doubled again on Monday rising as high as $158), we had a feeling which way the wind was blowing and laid out all the Russell 3000 stocks that had the highest Short Interest (50%> of float).

  

  Also on Friday, we put together an equal weighted basket of the companies listed above which on Monday… well… exploded, in light with our expectations that WallStreetBets/Robinhood traders would go down the list and systematically ramp up each and every one of these most shorted names, sending them in the stratosphere.

  That’s exactly what happened.

  

  And yet, while the market reaction was as we expected, one thing we did not anticipate was the “fracture point” which as we now know was Gabe Plotkin’s Melvin Capital, which effectively blew up today and suffered a multi-billion margin call on its shorts (as reported earlier), and only a $2.75 billion bailout from Citadel and Point72 (both prior investors in the fund) avoided a far greater disaster (had the $12 billion Melvin Capital been forced to start liquidating its longs to pay its margin calls, all bets would have been off).

  What is most remarkable, however, is that a quick look at Melvin’s put positions – which had attracted the ire of WallStreetBets investors who were long the names that Plotkin was short – shows that most of them were amazingly the same as the most shorted names shown above! One wonders how many idea dinners Plotkin attended to pitch his positions to his hapless peers who followed him right into the Big Short Squeeze abyss, and how many other hedge funds had been caught in the conflagration. Incidentally the reason why the WallStreetBets vendetta was targeted at Plotkin is because unlike traditional shorts, it had to disclose its puts in its quarterly 13F. Ironically, had Melvin merely kept its bearish bets in the form of regular shorts – which hedge funds have no obligation to report – all of this could have been avoided.

  And so, without further ado, here are Melvin Capital’s puts.

  

  Why do we care? Because as S3 Partners founder Bob Sloan told Bloomberg in a TV interview today, GameStop could rise even further after surging 95% over the past week: “Get prepared for another round of short squeeze. You’re going to see GameStop go way higher.”

  The reason: while the negative hit from Plotkin’s shorts and/or puts may have been neutralized, especially with the help of the nearly $3 billion in excess funding from Steve Cohen and Ken Griffin, which removes his incentive to cover shorts at all costs, earlier today we learned that as the hobbled hedge fund cralwed through the finish line, suffering massive P&L losses, countless other hedge funds took its place shorting Gamestop et al. In fact, GME’s short interest as a percent of float declined from 142% two weeks ago to… 139% today.

  

  Bottom line: brace for even more fireworks as WallStreetbets reignites the squeeze, only this time it won’t be Melvin but some other hedge fund that will be crushed under the collective weight of a few thousand Robinhood bulls. Which, incidentally, would be great news for Ken Griffin. Not only does he know which stocks will be ramped by Robinhood before anyone else – after all Citadel is the biggest buyer of RH orderflow – but once the short hedge fund on the other side blows up, Griffen can just pull another Melvin, and swoop in with another “bailout loan-for-revenue” scheme – i.e., an offer that simply can not be refused – and forcibly takes an equity stake in another distressed hedge fund… and another… and another, and so on, all with the help of a few thousand stimmychecked Gen-Zers.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 23:03

• House Delivers Impeachment Article To Senate But Biden Doesn't Think Trump Will Be Convicted
  House Delivers Impeachment Article To Senate But Biden Doesn’t Think Trump Will Be Convicted

  The House delivered its single impeachment article against former President Donald Trump to the Senate on Monday, setting the stage for a February 8 trial.

  There it is — House impeachment managers deliver article of impeachment against Donald Trump to the Senate, formally triggering a trial. pic.twitter.com/S2pxwq6nT7

  — Andrew Desiderio (@AndrewDesiderio) January 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Just three Senate Republicans were present during the formal delivery of the article; Mitch McConnell, Mitt Romney and Roger Marshall.

  Senators will get sworn in as jurors on Tuesday, according to a previous statement by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), while both the impeachment managers who will argue the House Democrats’ case, and Trump’s defense team, will have time to draft and file legal briefs, according to CNBC.

  The managers, headed by lead manager Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., carried the article across the Capitol to the Senate on Monday in masked pairs as part of a formal procession. As Raskin read the charge against Trump, a smattering of senators wearing face coverings looked on from within the chamber. –CNBC

  Ironically, Trump – the only president to be impeached twice by the House – is unlikely to be convicted according to none other than President Biden, who told CNN he believed the outcome would be different if Trump had six months left in office – but that he doubts the required 17 GOP senators will vote to convict.

  “Biden told CNN he believed the outcome would be different if Trump had six months left in his term, but said he doesn’t think 17 Republican senators will vote to convict Trump.” https://t.co/tWRgwCPSJD

  — Nicholas Fandos (@npfandos) January 26, 2021

  Which begs the question if the entire exercise is moot, then why do it as it will only further polarize the already deeply divided US society and certainly not help the “unity” that Biden is allegedly striving to achieve.

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsTrump was charged by the House with incitement of insurrection at the US Capitol on Jan. 6 by, as House Democrats claim, ‘falsely claiming that widespread election fraud cost him the 2020 election,’ and then encouraging his supporters to show up and challenge the electoral college count. According to the article, Trump “threatened the integrity of the democratic system, interfered with the peaceful transition of power, and imperiled a coequal branch of Government,” and “thereby betrayed his trust as President, to the manifest injury of the people of the United States.”

  NEW: GOP Sen. Roger Wicker says he will vote against impeachment.

  “A second impeachment trial is sure to inflame partisan tensions and could poison the cooperative spirit we need in a 50-50 Senate.” pic.twitter.com/isld2C9pwB

  — Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) January 26, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  South Carolina attorney Butch Bowers will defend Trump during the trial, while the nine House impeachment managers are Democratic Reps.Raskin, Diana DeGette of Colorado, David Cicilline of Rhode Island, Joaquin Castro of Texas, Eric Swalwell and Ted Lieu of California, Stacey Plaskett, the delegate for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Madeleine Dean of Pennsylvania and Joe Neguse of Colorado. (via CNBC).

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 22:50

• Company Plans Mass Rollout Of Humanoid Robots To Replace Workers In Healthcare, Education
  Company Plans Mass Rollout Of Humanoid Robots To Replace Workers In Healthcare, Education

  Submitted by PFW News

  A Hong Kong-based robotics company plans to mass produce humanoid robots to replace workers across industries such as healthcare and education.

  Hanson Robotics is set to launch a mass rollout of human-like robots that can compete with human workers, something the company’s founder says is needed to keep people safe in the age of the coronavirus.

  “The world of Covid-19 is going to need more and more automation to keep people safe,” founder and chief executive David Hanson claims. 

  Makers of Sophia the robot plan a mass rollout https://t.co/sn7T4N3wGR pic.twitter.com/ousQsWxEWs

  — Reuters (@Reuters) January 25, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Hanson says the manufacturing process of putting together such robots has scaled to the point where his company can produce the AI machines in large quantities. The plan is to ramp up production of four models, including their best known model ‘Sophia’, and the new ‘Grace’ robot that are specifically built to labor in healthcare.

  “Social Robots like me can help take care of the sick or elderly in many corners of healthcare and medical uses,” the Sophia robot said in a video by Reuters (it must be 2021 if robots are being quoted in the news).

  “I can help communicate, give therapy, and provide social stimulation even in difficult situations,” the robot further spoke.

  The ‘Sophia’ machine is best known for receiving citizenship in Saudi Arabia and being appointed the UN’s first non-human “innovation Champion.” Yes, really …

  Hanson’s sale pitch is that the robots can provide for people who are “lonely and socially isolated” during these times when Covid and lockdowns still effect many populations.

  “People need to be isolated from each other because to be around people is dangerous these days,” Hanson chillingly told Reuters.

  The development and utility of the human like machines such as the ones being developed by Hanson Robotics is a nod to the long dreaded fear that the AI/robotics industries are coming for jobs considered to be well paying and respected.

  During the Covid-19 pandemic robots were deployed in many parts of the world to enforce mask mandates and other social distancing edicts.

  #Singapore authorities hired a robot dog from #BostonDynamics to monitor people’s social distance. The robot walks through the park and asks passers-by to stay at least a meter apart pic.twitter.com/8RB46wGWVv

  — Sergey Golubev (@serge_golubev) May 11, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Humanoid robots have also been deployed in Wuhan hospitals to provide services such as admission and food delivery for patients.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 22:50

• Beware Bursting Bubbles: JPM Now Sees Only $900BN Biden Bill Passing
  Beware Bursting Bubbles: JPM Now Sees Only $900BN Biden Bill Passing

  While there were plenty of fireworks in the market today, mostly launched by the reddit/WSB/robinhood daytrading crowd who successfully sparked a historic short squeeze and ramped the most shorted stocks on Monday to the point that they brought a respected hedge fund, Melvin Capital (run by a former SAC portfolio manager) to the verge of collapse and only a $2.75 billion bailout from Ken Griffin and Steve Cohen avoided the biggest hedge fund margin call since LTCM, a more sinister risk-off undertone emerged early on following overnight reports that the Biden stimulus was facing major headwinds of opposition, on Monday Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the next round of Covid-19 relief was unlikely before mid-March, futher cementing the reality that Joe Biden’s nearly $2 trillion stimulus proposal to pass in Congress.

  To be sure, while we will likely see rolling short squeeze among small and medium (and eventually, large cap) stocks, the question is whether the market is getting cold feet about the reflation trade (as Rabobank warned last week) if indeed “Biden’s trillions” appear to be headed for a major delay, or haircut.

  What is concerning for bulls – especially now that virtually every major bank has warned of record euphoria spiking the risk of a sharp market drop in the very near future – as Biden gets ever growing pushback on his proposal, is that the probability of a $1.9 trillion plan diminishes with each passing day. In fact, whereas Goldman recently slashed its estimate of the final size of the realistic Biden stimulus to just $1.1 trillion from $1.9 trillion, JPMorgan has gone even further and as the following summary of “what happens next” from JPMorgan’s Andrew Tyler show, JPM now expects a mere $900 billion to pass, or a carbon copy of the bipartisan December stimulus (and it will be quite delayed at that as well).

  The question is whether Wall Street has priced in such a material decline and delay, and if not, just how (even more) adversely will this impact the reflation trade.

  So without further ado, here is the excerpt from Andrew Taylor’s “Market Summary” section published after the close:

  EQUITY AND MACRO NARRATIVE: Today, I received a lot of questions on the fiscal stimulus. Timing, size, and composition matter. Here are some thoughts:

  TIMING – Schumer told us it would be 4 – 6 weeks before the matter was taken up. Why?Trump’s first impeachment trial took 3 weeks. This trial is set to begin on Feb 8 and if we use prior impeachment for guidance then the trial concludes in that 4 – 6 week time frame.

  SIZE – given the push back from the GOP on doing another stimulus bill in this close proximity of the December $900bn package may mean that the pathway forward is via Reconciliation. This would be that a final bill would like be materially smaller than the proposed $1.9T. JPM current estimate is $900bn.

  COMPOSITION – one critical aspect of the US economy is the volume of people at/near financial distress.

  • Consider renters, where ~20% of all renters are behind on payments. The average renters owes $5,600 (CNBC). For reference, US median household income is~$63k and with a 25% withholding means ~$2k per pay period in take home pay. Combined, there is about $57bn in back rent owned by more than 10mm renters.
  • Consider homeowners, where about 2.7mm homeowners, or ~5.5% of all mortgages, have their mortgage payment in forbearance (WSJ).
  • The federal eviction moratorium was extended to March 31 by Biden’s Executive Order. An eviction ban does not create jobs nor clear that backlog of debt. If we have millions of people put through an eviction process, it is unlikely that states have the funds to service the increase homelessness.

  WHAT HAPPENS? At this time, it appears most likely that fiscal bill passes that is closer to$1T than to $2T, with a targeted focus on the most devastated Consumers and small businesses, sometime in late March or early April.

   

   

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 22:36

• NYC Badly Misses 1 Million COVID Vaccination Target
  NYC Badly Misses 1 Million COVID Vaccination Target

  After being forced to cancel 20K+ appointments over “logistical issues” that were blamed on McKesson, Moderna’s partner for distributing the vaccine, NYC has admitted that it will delay opening vaccination megasites like Yankee Stadium and Citi Field as shortages of vaccines leave the city shorthanded.

  

  According to Bloomberg, the city will almost definitely fall short of its goal of doling out 1MM+ doses by the end of January. So far, the city has doled out 628.8K doses, compared with 21.8MM vaccine jabs doled out world-wide.

  In New York State, there are about 19K designated first doses left, and officials are expecting another 107K more this week.

  During a Monday press briefing, Mayor Bill de Blasio said the city is equipped to vaccinate 500K people a week should it receive the increase in supply that it has been expecting.

  “We’re not going to be able to soar until we get more supply,” de Blasio said.

  He said more during a press briefing (see the full clip below).

  We’re at City Hall with the latest on #COVID19 vaccines in New York City. https://t.co/T7aoGJeChL

  — Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) January 25, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Meanwhile, case and hospitalization numbers in the city have been relatively stable.

  Today’s #COVID19 indicators:

  • 240 new hospitalizations
  • 4,743 new cases
  • 8.44% positivity rate (7-day avg.)

  We need to KEEP fighting while we’re waiting for more vaccines so we can turn this situation around.

  — Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) January 25, 2021

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  Jay Varma, de Blasio’s senior public health adviser, said the city is now targeting the end of February/beginning of March to receive a supply of the (still-unapproved) one-dose JNJ vaccines, which de Blasio has called “a real game-changer.”

  Citi Field (home of the New York Mets) was supposed to open this week and operate 24/7 doling out vaccines, with the goal of vaccinating as many as 7K New Yorkers a day.

  Of course, NYC isn’t the only city to miss its target. National targets and state-level targets pretty much everywhere (aside from a handful of smaller states like West Virginia) have missed their targets. Last year, the CDC missed its target to vaccinate 20MM by Jan. 1 by a wide margin, with only 2MM people being vaccinated in that time just 10% of the total.

  Meanwhile, on Friday New York governor Andrew Cuomo announced his state had temporarily run out of the vaccine. But according to the Bloomberg chart, NY has used just 61% of its nearly 2.4 million doses. This as some quickly pointed out “means they have tossed out a HUGE amount of their vaccines in the trash. We’re talking hundreds of thousands of doses.”

  The conclusion: “If an adversarial press still exists, they need to ask Cuomo about this and nothing else until we get answers.”

  If NY is truly out of vaccine, that means they have tossed out a HUGE amount of their vaccines in the trash. We’re talking hundreds of thousands of doses.

  If an adversarial press still exists, they need to ask Cuomo about this and nothing else until we get answers. https://t.co/Jc98mbA70f

  — PoliMath (@politicalmath) January 25, 2021

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  Alas, under the current regime the term “adversarial press” is nothing but an oxymoron.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 22:20

• Government Waste Thrives In Darkness
  Government Waste Thrives In Darkness

  Submitted by Real Clear Politics, authored by Thomas W. Smith chairman of OpenTheBooks.com.

  

  In the last 20 years, our country’s national debt has exploded. In 2001, when George W. Bush took office, the national debt was $5.8 trillion. It took around 225 years — booms, busts, depressions, wars, etc. — to amass that much national debt. In just eight years, Bush and a compliant Congress doubled the number to $11.7 trillion. In Barack Obama’s two terms, another $8.6 trillion was added. During the past four years, Donald Trump and Congress fought many battles, but not over this: In that time, America’s future was mortgaged to the tune of another $6.7 trillion. Today, the national debt is around $27 trillion, a four-fold increase in the last two decades. That doesn’t count unfunded mandates. And there is no end in sight. 

  Whenever human beings gather to accomplish a task, any task, without strong and effective oversight, a natural evolution takes place. Whether it be in business, academia, philanthropy, or government, every activity morphs from the original goal to self-aggrandizement. In government, this process is particularly toxic. There are no profits, let alone a profit motive. No concern with productivity. No incentive to turn off the proverbial lights. No measure of success. No motivation to end counterproductive activities. 

  Add to this mix the influence of public employee unions. Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Harry Truman were opposed to them for reasons that long ago became apparent. The goal of all unions is self-preservation – just as management’s is to maximize profits. But public employee unions add two other noxious elements to the mix: (1) defending job incompetence and (2) heavy-handed involvement in the electoral process in a search for pliant politicians who can help them achieve their objectives by spending ever more of the public’s money.

  Now, out of the blue, the experts-for-hire have a new scheme to justify continued fiscal irresponsibility: modern monetary theory. It holds that so long as interest rates are lower than inflation rates, politicians can spend away. That is not a theory. It is idle wordplay, and the victim of such sophistry is the American taxpayer — and future generations of American taxpayers.

  Never in our history has fiscal soundness been more important. The exploding annual deficits of the last 20 years have produced a national debt as a percentage of the gross domestic product that is as high as it was during World War II even though our nation is at peace. Moreover, many severely underfunded programs such as Social Security and Medicaid are not included in today’s debt calculations, although they should be.

  The passage of a 5,593-page must-pass-quickly bill in December was indisputable evidence that the national debt will never be addressed from the top down. That legislation was sent to the Senate two hours before the vote. Who can read 2,800 pages per hour, 47 pages per minute? How can a responsible lawmakers vote on bills they have not read? While our political leaders have repeatedly told us how important this bill was to the survival of so many Americans, they delayed the bill for months for political reasons. A crucial-to-the-survival-of-so-many-Americans pork-filled bill? Some $10 million to Pakistan for “gender programs”? Another $700 million to Sudan for Lord knows what? And on and on and on.

  History has a clear and repeated message: If we do not address this exploding debt, it will bring to life all-knowing leaders, leaders who Friedrich Hayek said possessed the “fatal conceit.” They think they know more than is knowable. Leaders who have all the answers for everything they define as a problem: More regulations. More government control. More taxes. This is a noxious cure that has never succeeded, one that has left country after country in economic tatters.

  Fortunately, the world in changing. Today, we have the means to address this financial irresponsibility, this threat to our country as our founders envisioned it. We are immersed in the Information Age, the Big Data world, the Cloud world, the Bitcoin world. The cost of communications is close to zero. Smartphones, iPads, and computers are a crucial part of everyday life. With the touch of a finger, one click, information on every topic is available 24 hours a day. Buy anything. Sell anything. Today, instant access to information is embedded in our culture. Why should government expenditures be exempt? 

  Transparency has always been the best antidote to rein in profligate government spending. Having instant information at our fingertips gives fiscally responsible Americans a powerful new weapon in the War on Waste. Today, there is no reason why every local, state, and federal government expenditure is not online, in real-time, available to every citizen. Taxpayers should be able to attend a school board meeting and pull up school expenses on their phones. 

  OpenTheBooks has a formidable weapon to unleash the voting public’s ability to address this exploding national debt, this lack of transparency, this threat to our democracy — the OpenTheBooks Government Expenditure Library, which contains over 5 billion (and growing) local, state, and federal government expenditures. Last year, we filed 41,500 Freedom of Information Act requests. We sued several government entities to encourage them to provide us the same information we collect from other states.

  The OpenTheBooks Government Expenditure Library is open to everyone: Citizens.  Politicians. Students. Academics. Scholars. Journalists. Think tanks. Everyone — 24-hours a day, seven days a week. 

  Transparency can be as revolutionary as the Internet has been for the economic well-being of the world. Transparency can not only enhance the odds of the survival of this, the greatest country in the history of the world but, over time, it will contribute to our prosperity, our health, and our happiness. Wasted taxpayer dollars are not just nonproductive. Waste allowed to exist encourages more waste. Fraud allowed to exist encourages more fraud. A financially sound economy, one that works to remove waste, fraud, duplication, and incompetence, will increase respect for government, for the rule of law. 

  OpenTheBooks places the future of this great country more firmly in the hands of the voters. To ensure our elected officials realize this, we have to communicate continuously with them what we expect and how we will vote. I suggest we begin with one clear public statement: “I will never vote for anyone who has voted for a bill they have not read.” Register that statement at OpenTheBooks.com/READTHEBILL. 

  Obviously, our elected officials are unwilling to address this explosive, increasingly crucial national debt problem. Fortunately, we the taxpaying voters today have a weapon at our fingertips to successfully wage a War on Waste. Successful because our political leaders will quickly recognize that if they want to be reelected, they will have to respond accordingly.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 21:50

• The First Casualty Of The Big Short Squeeze: Melvin Capital Gets $2.75BN Bailout From Citadel, Point72 After Its Shorts Explode
  The First Casualty Of The Big Short Squeeze: Melvin Capital Gets $2.75BN Bailout From Citadel, Point72 After Its Shorts Explode

  With dozens of heavily shorted (by hedge funds) stocks exploding higher in recent days, it was only a matter of time before the first casualty of said bull raid emerged, and thanks to the WSJ we now have the first name.

  Melvin Capital, which we learned last week had suffered massive losses on its shorts, is set to receive a $2.75 billion capital injection from hedge fund giants Citadel and Point72 and investors (in what appears to be a bailout so Mevlin Capital founder Gabe Plotkin, a former star portfolio manager for Steven Cohen, could pay his margin call). The bailout loan investments are for non-controlling revenue shares in the hedge fund, although it wasn’t immediately clear how much of Melvin’s revenue the two funds would get.

  

  According to the WSJ, the influx of cash is expected to help stabilize Melvin, which lost a staggering 30% in just the first three weeks of 2021. While Melvin started the year with $12.5 billion, and had been one of the best performing hedge funds on Wall Street in recent years, it saw huge losses (and margin calls) as a result of numerous short bets against companies and have stunned clients and other traders.

  In other words, 16-year-old Robinhood traders 1 – “star” hedge fund portfolio manager 0. In yet other words, hedge funds are now bailing out other hedge funds (in which they have invested money), who have been steamrolled by the Robinhood Gen-Z “buy everything” juggernaut.

  The $2.75 bailout is effectively a rights offering for Citadel and SAC, as they had more than $1 billion invested in Melvin as of 2019. Melvin founder Gabe Plotkin was a top portfolio manager at Point72’s predecessor firm, SAC Capital Management, before he left to start Melvin.

  An interesting question here is how it is legal that Citadel, which buys the bulk of retail orderflow and is intimately aware of which institution will get crushed as a result of historic short squeeze bull raids, is also allowed to bailed out its investment in Melvin, which got hammered precisely because of said orderflow. The answer, sadly, is beyond our pay grade.

  As the WSJ reported last week, “Melvin is known for running an expansive and aggressive short book that has sometimes made up the bulk of the fund’s gains, an uncommon dynamic in the industry. The firm has returned an average 30% a year since it started in 2014, despite charging performance fees that range up to 30% on investment gains.”

  The gains came to a jarring end once teenage traders realized that with the Fed at their back, they could steamroll any bearish hedge fund in their way.

  Not surprisingly, one stock that crushed Melvin is GameStop. We all know what happened there. Some of the recent Reddit posts on Gamespot specifically call out Melvin, which disclosed in its most recent quarterly regulatory filing that it held put options on GameStop. Put options are contracts that give investors the right to sell stock at a specific price by a certain date and limit an investor’s potential losses (the WSJ cites a person familiar with Melvin who said its GameStop puts expired last week).

  In recent days, Plotkin had been calling clients with chief operating officer David Kurd to inform them of and explain the losses thus far. One client said Melvin’s message was that the fund still liked its portfolio and that it had rebounded from past losses.

  We wonder if he feels the same way just days later, and if he will boldly go back to shorting the same stocks that nearly put it out of business.

  Finally, since this is merely the start, we remind readers of the post we published in November, when we laid out the Top 50 shorts by the hedge fund community…

  

  … when we said that “our advice is to go long the most hated names and short the most popular ones – a strategy that has generated alpha without fail for the past 7 years, ever since we first recommended it back in 2013.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 21:45

• COVID Lockdown Policies Will Disproportionately Hit Black Americans For Decades, New Study Finds
  COVID Lockdown Policies Will Disproportionately Hit Black Americans For Decades, New Study Finds

  “Follow the science” exclaimed every virtue-signaling talking head as left-leaning authorities/officials clamped down on Americans’ rights nationwide… “wear a mask”, “shelter at home”, “no comingling”, “slow the spread”, “think of the children”, “save grandma” were the cries as the virus refused to pay attention to state and local authories’ orders to behave as the “scientist” textbooks claimed.

  And, as cases rose, and hospitalizations rose, and deaths rose, so did the tyrannical trouncing of the economy sending unemployment rates to record highs and crushing GDP growth to record lows.

  Now, here we sit, hunkered down in many blue states still, unable to discern exactly what ‘science’ it is that is driving officials’ decision.

  Along those lines, it seems like a good idea to point out that a new peer reviewed study out of Stanford is questioning the effectiveness of lockdowns and stay-at-home orders (which it calls NPIs, or non-pharmaceutical interventions) to combat Covid-19. The study’s lead author is an associate professor in the Department of Medicine at Stanford.

  

  “The study did not find evidence to support that NPIs were effective in preventing the spread,” according to Outkick, who published the report. 

  The study, co-authored by Dr. Eran Bendavid, Professor John P.A. Ioannidis, Christopher Oh, and Jay Bhattacharya, studied the effects of NPIs in 10 different countries, including England, France, Germany and Italy.

  And, when all was said and done, it concluded that: “In summary, we fail to find strong evidence supporting a role for more restrictive NPIs in the control of COVID in early 2020.”

  In fact, the study found  “no clear, significant beneficial effect of more restrictive NPIs on case growth in any country.”

  

  So, did left-leaning states’ policies in response to the pandemic – to lockdown entire states, crush economies, and spark mass unemployment and poverty leading to increasing deaths of despair actually achieve anything?

  The short answer is no…

  

  The longer answer is yes… they made the situation for African Americans considerably worse for at least the next two decades.

  A recent study by the National Bureau of Economic Research has found that, for the overall population, the increase in the death rate following the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown policies implies a staggering 0.89 and 1.37 million excess deaths over the next 15 and 20 years, respectively. These numbers correspond to 0.24% and 0.37% of the projected US population at the 15- and 20-year horizons, respectively.

  However, for African-Americans, we estimate 180 thousand and 270 thousand excess deaths over the next 15 and 20 years, respectively. These numbers correspond to 0.34% and 0.49% of the projected African-American population at the 15- and 20-year horizons, respectively.

  For Whites, we estimate 0.82 and 1.21 million excess deaths over the next 15 and 20 years, respectively. These numbers correspond to 0.30% and 0.44% of the projected White population at the 15- and 20-year horizons, respectively.

  These numbers are roughly equally split between men and women.

  

  African-Americans experience larger unemployment shocks and the effects of these shocks on unemployment are more persistent. Conditional on the same race, the shocks for women are smaller. The effects on life expectancy and death rates are more severe for African-Americans, overall.

  

  Alas, the time to fix this is gone as Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid previously noted, the die has already been cast and it is now far too late.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 21:20

• On Avoiding Expensive Mistakes…
  On Avoiding Expensive Mistakes…

  Submitted by Adventures in Capitalism

  Let me throw this out there; the investing game is mind-numbingly easy. You buy good businesses for less than fair value. Sure, we can all argue about fair value. There are always surprises in the future trajectory of a business. This game has some wrinkles and drama, but at the most basic level, it’s easy. In fact, done correctly, it only involves a handful of decisions each year.

  If it’s so easy, why aren’t I wealthier? It’s because I’ve tried to complicate things from time to time and made some very expensive mistakes along the way. Look, I’m human. Fortunately, I learn fast and usually avoid making the same mistake twice. I like to joke that my career is nothing more than two decades of finding creative ways to lose money. That’s not to say that the markets haven’t been good to me—the markets have been amazingly rewarding to me.

  When I look back on my career thus far, I don’t dwell too much on the winners—remember how I said buying something cheap is easy? Nor do I think about the ones that didn’t go anywhere, while tying up my precious capital. Instead, I repeatedly relive my most expensive mistakes. Over a decade later, I still ask myself how could I have been so foolish to keep shorting more Research in Motion (currently BB – USA) as it went parabolic? On one hand, I was right about the iPhone displacing the Blackberry. On the other hand, it didn’t matter because I was a year early. I was stubborn and it was my most expensive loss ever. (Thankfully I took the loss when I did, as it more than doubled from where I eventually covered my short).

  Over the years, I have learned that it is never the boring compounder that really hurts you—it’s the leverage, the complexity and the shorting that gets you—especially the shorting. There’s a reason that I rarely ever short these days. I even penned a piece on the topic; Stop Shorting “Project Zimbabwe” as I wanted to warn my friends that the market is suddenly quite different from what we were all accustomed to. Having been run over in the past, I have a reasonably good perspective on when other situations can run people over—heck, I sometimes even join in the fun on the long side. Looking back to Tesla, it was obvious to get out when I did. I feel bad that so many friends didn’t listen. I feel even worse that I didn’t reverse long—it was that obvious.

  

  I bring this all up while watching the drama at GameStop. Let me start by saying that I don’t care how confident you are that a company will go to zero, when there are more shares short than outstanding, you’re just asking for people to play games with you. When word gets out that a few large funds are individually short 8-figure positions, you know that someone will try for the kill-shot. r/WallStreetBets gets the attention, but there are killer whales out there, silently doing the real work. There’s a price where these shorts will puke it up and the market has a funny way of finding that price.

  I don’t want to focus too much on GameStop. I had an Event-Driven long position because July 4^th is always more fun when you buy your own fireworks. I tossed it at $92.50 premarket for a nice score. I’ve also written a pile of puts as implied volatility has experienced a supernova event, but this is still boring GameStop after all. However, this article isn’t about what will happen at GME; my guess is as good as yours. Rather, I want to point out that you have to be a special sort of stupid to stay short when there are more shares short than outstanding. Hubris is dangerous in the investing game. Shorts are extra dangerous. There are landmines everywhere. I don’t care how small the position is, when a short position goes up 25-fold in six months, it’s going to hurt badly. If you didn’t realize that was a risk, you really weren’t paying attention.

  

  Remember how easy this game is? Buy cheap stocks and go to the beach. I’d be a whole lot wealthier today if I had done more of that when I was younger. Instead, we all like to add complexity because we think we’re smarter than the market. We like to add leverage because 50% more of a good thing tends to make it better. We often forget that one big mistake on the short side can bankrupt you. The first rule of investing is to never put yourself in a position where you can lose it all. Having been burnt in the past, I focus inordinate attention today on how I can get hurt; not on where I can make the most money—that part is easy. I like to think that the shift in my focus means that I have matured as an investor. Trust me, I know how frustrating it is to dig out of a self-created hole. As a result, I’m amazed that so many people blindly dismiss the risks out there. That is just asking for trouble.

  “Project Zimbabwe” is a brave new world for everyone. Please stop, review your portfolio, stress test everything, think through the implications of 100-sigma events happening each day. No one is ready for what’s about to happen, as it’s mostly right-tail risk—except if you have a financialized book, in which case a move in interest rates may detonate your left tail first. As others blow up their books, your version of complexity may end up as collateral damage. Stop. Think it through. Be extra careful. No one expected GameStop to become a momentum stock. What else does no one expect? What else can happen? Be careful out there. Stop being stupid. A large fund with a great track record, is not immune to these rules—if anything, their position sizing makes them more vulnerable. A lot of rules that we’ve all taken for granted are about to be re-written. NEVER put yourself in a position where you can lose it all.

  

  The shorts at GameStop are probably thinking that Friday was the blow-off top. Instead, they should be asking themselves, “was Friday a base-camp on the way to the real blow-off top?” Remember, in today’s world, any asset can trade at any price. The price of oil went negative. No one thought that was possible, yet trillions of bonds at negative yields should have been a warning that the old rules no longer applied. I want to repeat again for the third time; NEVER put yourself in a position where you can lose it all. The rules for “Project Zimbabwe” are being re-written and they will be full of surprises. In particular, be careful on the short side. GameStop isn’t the first supernova squeeze of this decade and it surely won’t be the last.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 20:50

• Superstar Robinhood Traders Are Turning To Paid Financial Advice
  Superstar Robinhood Traders Are Turning To Paid Financial Advice

  It’s starting to look like the new ultra-high net worth individuals are formerly twenty-somethings that got their start trading on Robinhood. Some of those who have smashed and grabbed on the platform are now turning to professionals to help protect their winnings. At least that was the takeaway from a Bloomberg report featuring several Robinhood traders who have done well and are now seeking out professional financial advisors to manage their wealth.

  The piece featured traders like 31 year old Jeremy Johnson, who, after investing $15,000 per year with Robinhood, has decided to move on to greener pastures. “You can save your money all you want, but if it’s not doing anything, what does it look like long term?” he asked Bloomberg.

  Rather than be a bad omen for financial advisors, the pandemic has actually helped the field grow. For Johnson, a financial advisor meant help saving more money, life insurance recommendations and a mix of different types of investments. 

  And he’s not alone: 40% of U.S. based investors said they need more financial advice. 56% of those people said they would be willing to pay for such advice, up 5% from 2019. 82% that pay for the financial advice say it’s worth the price. Investors who have an advisor are twice as likely to say they have the best investment strategy compared to those who go it alone, BBG notes.

  

  Investment advisor Aspiriant LLC said it saw a push in demand after stocks plunged back in March of 2020. Additional clients turned up during the year as high profile IPOs hit the market, the firm said. Its client list was up 32% in 2020. 

  30 year old pharmacist Tia Ware, who was once taken back by the $1200 fee of hiring a financial advisor, has come around to the idea. She said: “At first I was like ‘hell no. But now, yes, when I see my accounts. If I didn’t have a financial adviser, I’d only have shoes and bags to show for it.”

  After the pandemic started, she said she engaged with her advisor far more often than in years past. 

  Brokerages like Schwab say they have created a new pipeline to financial advisors by taking on new accounts as a result of zero trading fees. Schwab’s digital advisory assets grew 18% in 2020 to $57.9 billion. 

  People are “more warm and receptive to paying for and receiving advice” during turmoil, financial advisor Eddie Welch concluded.

  He said that while Robinhood makes it easy to get into the market, “it’s a little more difficult to get into the market with a plan. And in most cases I think that’s what people seek from us.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 20:35

• Democrats Have Released A Roadmap To One-Party Rule
  Democrats Have Released A Roadmap To One-Party Rule

  By Phill Kline, via Real Clear Politics

  

  The Democrats appear intent on instituting one-party rule in the United States. 

  They’re trying to use the U.S. Capitol riots as an excuse to criminalize dissent and banish conservative voices from the public sphere, and at the same time they’re hoping to use their temporary, razor-thin majority in Congress to rewrite the rules governing our elections in a way designed to keep the Democratic Party entrenched in power for decades to come. 

  In the House, Democrats have revived sweeping election reform legislation that died in the Senate during the previous session, perhaps hoping they can browbeat enough Republicans into going along with them. If that happens, the “Grand Old Party” of Abraham Lincoln might as well disband, because Republicans would never have any hope of regaining a congressional majority or controlling the White House under the rules that HR 1 would put in place. 

  Although the Constitution explicitly places state legislatures in charge of managing federal elections, HR 1 seeks to use the power of the purse to bludgeon the states into conforming to a centralized system pioneered in California and other deep-blue states. Congress can’t technically compel the states to change their voting laws, but seasoned politicians know that the states have become dependent on federal money to run their elections, and can’t afford to pick up the tab themselves. 

  To make matters worse, HR 1 declares that Congress possesses “ultimate supervisory power over Federal elections” — an extraordinary usurpation of governmental authority that the Founders specifically assigned to the states. 

  The 2020 election witnessed private interests dictating the manner in which the election was conducted in the nation’s urban cores. Mark Zuckerberg alone poured $419 million into this scheme. 

  The goal of centralizing power in the hands of the federal government has long been at the heart of liberal politics, and this legislation demonstrates why. 

  HR 1 would codify the very practices — many of them currently illegal in most states — that created widespread irregularities in the 2020 elections and contributed greatly to public mistrust of the electoral process. In 2020, state and local officials used the COVID-19 pandemic as justification to ignore or deliberately violate state election laws. If HR 1 is enacted, they won’t need any such excuse in 2022 because the states will have no choice but to implement policies such as legalized ballot harvesting, early voting, and universal mail-in voting, as well as repeal of voter ID laws, signature-matching laws, and other ballot security measures. 

  For example, HR 1 would allow ballot harvesting on steroids. Voters would — for the first time — have the ability to print out their ballots at home, creating a gaping security hole that could easily be exploited by either domestic or foreign interests. The legislation also allows third parties to collect ballots from an unlimited number of absentee voters and submit them through ballot drop boxes, dramatically increasing the risk that vulnerable Americans could be bullied, bribed, or blackmailed for their votes without the protection of election workers. 

  Under the rules outlined in HR 1, election observers wouldn’t even be able to challenge the legitimacy of ballots without written documentation, making it virtually impossible to document or detect election irregularities. 

  Nothing in this legislation could plausibly be interpreted as a means of restoring public confidence in our elections — but the reforms establish a clear roadmap to one-party rule. This is especially so when you consider the new proposals for the war on “domestic terror” aimed directly at the free expression of American citizens. 

  We can only hope that principled Republicans and Democrats will reject this direct assault on American democracy and individual freedom, and resist the institutionalists in both parties who believe the American people need them to protect us from ourselves. 

  The way to create one-party rule is to control information and control the way a nation selects its leaders. The political left has joined with Big Tech and government careerists in aggressively trying to do both.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 20:00

• "Greatest Rise In Inequality Ever": The Last 6 Months Saw Sharpest Rise In US Poverty In Half-Century
  “Greatest Rise In Inequality Ever”: The Last 6 Months Saw Sharpest Rise In US Poverty In Half-Century

  A new poverty estimate seeking to analyze the nationwide impact of government relief measures which expired just at the end of last month has found that the latter half of 2020 marked the sharpest rise in the US poverty rate since the 1960s. The study released Monday and presented in Bloomberg finds that the poverty rate increased by 2.4% during the second half of 2020, following last spring and early summer COVID-19 rolling lockdowns in various parts of the country.

  

  This amounts to an additional 8 million Americans being considered newly poor, nearly double the highest annual increase in poverty in over a half-century.

  The study authors – economists Bruce Meyer of the University of Chicago, and James Sullivan of the University of Notre Dame – further found that Black Americans were among the hardest hit, and more that twice as likely to fall below the poverty line as White Americans.

  According to Bloomberg’s summary of the results, “The researchers found that the stimulus checks the federal government issued in the spring helped forestall the poverty rate from rising even faster.”

  

  Bloomberg recalls further that “In late December, $900 billion in addition federal relief aid was passed, and President Joe Biden is asking Congress for an additional $1.9 trillion in stimulus.”

  The US trend of the past six months is also echoed more broadly in global data showing COVID-fueled poverty across much of the world.

  A new study by Brookings using IMF & World Bank data shows, because of COVID, poverty is rising in most developing & emerging economies. The biggest rise in poverty is in India which will overtake Nigeria around now to be the nation with the largest number of poor people.

  — Kaushik Basu (@kaushikcbasu) January 23, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As featured in a recent Oxfam study which also sought to assess the financial impact of the pandemic — up to 500 million people globally have been newly pushed into poverty, while at the same time the world’s 10 richest men made a combined $540 billion over the same time frame.

  Oxfam is calling it evidence of the “greatest rise in inequality since records began.” 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 19:35

• Carlsbad, CA Says No More to Lockdowns. May It Be A National Model
  Carlsbad, CA Says No More to Lockdowns. May It Be A National Model

  By John Tamny, of the American Institute on Economic Research

  It’s been said off and on over the decades that California is a bellwether of sorts. What happens there is a preview of what’s going to happen elsewhere in the U.S.

  In the late 1970s the passage of Proposition 13 foretold a national tax revolt. Californians used a referendum to limit the tax power of grasping politicians in the Golden State, and the pushback eventually went national.

  A different, more local revolt began last weekend in Carlsbad, CA, a town just north of San Diego. Its restaurant and bar owners decided they’re weren’t going to take it anymore. They’re no longer going to allow witless politicians to destroy what they’ve worked so long to build. They’re going to open their businesses to eager customers.

  Some will ask what California legislators right up to Governor Gavin Newsom will say. Ideally the mini-revolt will wake these sick people up to the extraordinary damage they’re doing, but if not it’s worth reminding everyone that the very individuals in government who are presently limiting your right to work, operate your business, and live your life as you desire, used to not be in government. Some even used to have regular jobs in the private sector. The main thing is that they’re not experts on medical matters, nor are they abnormally smart. They just happen to be good at politics. They’re in no position to tell us how to live, or operate our businesses, or whether or not we should have a job to go to. They’re just people who want power, prestige and money, only they want it the easy way.

  This is worth remembering as businesses, jobs and life as we know it vanish thanks to politicians imposing their force on us. Why allow them to do that? People should be free to do as they wish with their property. Period. This includes Twitter and Facebook if they choose to censor comments and commenters. If Amazon chooses to not do business with certain people or companies, that’s its right. If bakers choose not to bake cakes for events that offend their personal morality, that’s their right. Business owners who want to meet the needs of willing customers while a virus is spreading should be free to open up as they see fit.

  Interesting and happy about scenic, seaside Carlsbad is that in a state that is largely locked down, in a state where most restaurants can’t even serve customers outside, Carlsbad is open. Its restaurants and bars are open outdoors and indoors. Some of the bars are packed. Please learn more about this happy story of protest against what is ridiculous. Please support it.

  Of course, the owners of the bars and restaurants in OPEN (!!!!!) Carlsbad are far more diplomatic than yours truly. They’re calling their exercise of their property rights a “peaceful protest.” And peaceful it is. Nothing could be more peaceful than operating a business that can only succeed insofar as its patrons are pleased for having patronized it, only to come back over and over again.

  Furthermore, the protest is one lodged under desperate circumstances. These businesses can’t not be open. If they remain shuttered by decree, or limited in their ability to serve their customers by decree, they will close for good. Though some business owners may have political leanings, this is not political. It’s about survival, and it’s something all who consider themselves decent should cheer. This includes those who’ve not been out in public or inside a public venue since March. Freedom is its own virtue.

  Arguably the most important supporters of the beautiful story unfolding in Carlsbad would be other business owners. They must open if they feel inclined to re-open. The simple truth is that the power-mad can’t arrest everyone. If restaurants and bars open en masse in California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and every other city and state overseen by authoritarians, what can the authorities do? There aren’t enough jails and handcuffs, and there aren’t enough guns to subdue a mass, nationwide, owner, employee and customer protest against a tragic lapse of reason.

  Crucial about what’s happening in Carlsbad, and that should happen everywhere, is that there’s nothing violent about it. It’s much more than just a “peaceful protest.” It’s reasonable. It’s common sense. It’s businesses, workers, and customers exercising their right operate, work, and live as they want. They’re not forcing their values on others. Businesses that choose to stay closed should do just that. Worried employees should stay home. The people fearful of the virus should similarly stay home.

  For the rest of us who feel inclined to resume living, it’s time for us to do that. Again, those who are sickeningly intoxicated with power can’t incarcerate us all. As for the businesses terrorized by the political class in Carlsbad, they decided they no longer have any choice. Given the choice between going out of business and defying politicians, they chose the latter. Good for them.

  Let’s again support what’s happening in Carslbad, including purchasing gift certificates from its restaurants and bars. Let’s also emulate them. May Carlsbad be a national model!

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 19:10

• Is This The Reason Behind's Today's Surreal Market Action
  Is This The Reason Behind’s Today’s Surreal Market Action

  Between the insane rollercoaster action in the most shorted names, which exploded out of the gate only to get hammered the moment the broader market suddenly plunged 60 points in just a few minutes (one wonders which dealer(s) was so short gamma in the most shorted names, they had no choice but to hammer the entire market to break the upward momentum wave and avoid getting crushed), one word describes today’s market action so far: surreal.

  

  And while it would probably be unwise to try to make any sense of this idiocy, there likely is some fact/fundamental based reason for today’s market action besides merely a reaction to the berserk technicals and market action.

  So courtesy of Bear Traps report Larry McDonald, here is one attempt at explaining why stocks are suddenly looking quite a bit gappy, and it has to do with the Fed finally pulling some of the punch bowl away::

  Our 21 Lehman Systemic Indicators are screaming higher. The inmates are running the asylum and the probability of the Federal Reserve breaking out their creative “macro prudential” tool box is the highest in years. U.S. central bankers are no longer Trump constrained, the banking system is strong but the equity market has far more in common with Steve Wynn (Vegas) than Warren Buffett (Omaha).

  We think the Fed sends a shot over the bow very soon. Our social justice, inequality embarrassed Fed is not happy. The will not taper but they can make serious threats to risk takers. We have an explosion of SPAC / IPO issuance, $850B of margin debt or 75% above 2015 levels, the most shorted equities up 75% vs. 16% for the S&P 500 since October (bulls running over bears), record high call vs. put volume with the little guy leading the charge SELL Mortimer Sell. The risk reward is atrocious from a long perspective in U.S. equities.

  Impeachment Threat to Reflation: Moves to the Senate floor next week. Impact; 1 . Pushes out the Fiscal timeline.  2 . Similar to the GOP immediately trying to take down Obamacare, the signature achievement of the previous administration , on day one of the Trump administration. The move was Unwise and Not helpful to the fiscal policy path.

  Remember, the tax cuts were sold to us as a certainty in Q1 2017, they didn’t arrive until late Q4 that year. In our view, this speaks to a potential rally in bonds / USD for the next few weeks.

  Best case scenario, we have a $1.9T fiscal plan coming in late February early March with the current the bid / offer at $800B to $1.9T. However, any additional variant / mutations Covid risk increase will game the spread in the direction of the offer side if the  mpeachment doesn’t blow up the deal altogether.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 18:57

• The Secret History Of America's 'War On Terror' Mythology
  The Secret History Of America’s ‘War On Terror’ Mythology

  A new book exposes the alternative history of the so-called “war on terror” which has in the past decades unraveled the Middle East, resulted in failed states from Libya to Syria to Yemen, and has fueled the rise of ISIS and led to a stronger al-Qaeda in places like Syria and North Africa: Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism.

  Author Scott Horton of The Libertarian Institute and AntiWar.com begins his unrelentingly detailed and devastating ‘secret history’ and deconstruction of the ‘terror wars’ as follows: “On September 11, 2001, there were no more than a few hundred al Qaeda members hiding out in Afghanistan. Three months later, when the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) paramilitaries, U.S. Army Delta Force and U.S. Air Force finished bombing them, and Osama bin Laden had escaped to Pakistan, there were not enough of the terrorists left alive to fill a 757.“

  

  Horton goes on to conclude that, “Now, 20 years after that brief, one-sided victory, there are tens of thousands of bin Ladenite jihadists thriving in lands from Nigeria to the Philippines. Recently, and for almost three years, some even claimed their own divinely ordained caliphate, or Islamic State, temporarily erasing the border between Iraq and Syria. Local chapters of their group keep popping up all over the region. The State Department consistently reports a vast increase in the number of global terrorism incidents compared to the pre- September 11th era. Al Qaeda, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and their ‘lone wolf’ copycats have carried out multiple, deadly attacks in more than a dozen major Western cities in the past decade, including Brussels, Paris, Berlin, London, San Bernardino, Orlando, New York City, Pensacola and Corpus Christi.”

  Former Congressman Ron Paul writes of the new book:

  “Nothing has fueled the abuse of government power in the last 20 years like the ‘War on Terrorism.’ Scott Horton’s essential new book, Enough Already, is the key to understanding why it’s not too late to end the wars and save our country. Three administrations in a row have promised us a more restrained foreign policy. It is time we insisted on it.“

  Below is an authorized excerpt from Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism.

  

  * * *

  Expediting the Chaotic Collapse

  Dick Cheney’s Middle East adviser, neoconservative strategist David Wurmser, wrote in his 1996 article “Coping with Crumbling States” that the U.S. should seek to “expedite the chaotic collapse” of Syria as soon as they were done overthrowing Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Unfortunately for Wurmser, the opportunity to destroy Syria did not come until after he was out of power. Americans concerned about bin Ladenite terrorism might have wondered why in the world they should want to spread any more chaos in the region after the catastrophe of Iraq War II.

  In an age of international terrorism waged by radical Islamists, Bashar al-Assad was a secularist who shaved his chin every morning, wore a threepiece suit and was an old acquaintance of Secretary of State John Kerry. His father’s government had joined George H.W. Bush’s coalition against Iraq in 1991 and cooperated with America and Israel at the Madrid and Oslo meetings. Bashar al-Assad had voted for America’s UN Security Council Resolution 1441 mandating the return of the weapons inspectors to Iraq. He had also been willing to negotiate with Israel over the Golan Heights in the George W. Bush years, before Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice intervened and forced the Israelis to halt the talks.

  Assad was a “reformer,” Hillary Clinton had said. Assad’s regime had been torturing people for the CIA as part of the “extraordinary rendition” program since her husband’s administration in the 1990s. Former CIA officer Robert Baer seemed to be honest about his own role in the program when he told the New Statesman that, “If you want a serious interrogation, you send a prisoner to Jordan. If you want them to be tortured, you send them to Syria. If you want someone to disappear — never to see them again — you send them to Egypt.” The George W. Bush administration, in a case of mistaken identity, handed an innocent Canadian named Maher Arar over to the Syrians to be tortured.

  As revealed in leaked State Department cables, in 2010 Assad’s government invited the U.S. to join their efforts against bin Ladenites crossing the border from Syria into Iraq.

  Assad was not a full-fledged American sock-puppet dictator like Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, but he had been mostly cooperative in the War on Terrorism and certainly had no love for al Qaeda. Syria had been accused of helping to facilitate the entry of foreign fighters into Iraq earlier during Iraq War II, though it was never proven that his government was behind the jihadists’ border crossings. If it were true that Assad had done so, his motives would have been defensive in nature, and understandable, if not justifiable: to get those dangerous terrorists out of his country and help keep the United States bogged down in Iraq before they could move on to the next stage of their publicly stated plan: overthrowing him.

  

  In 2007, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi went to Syria. There she visited the Omayyad mosque in Old Damascus and met with President Assad for three hours, insisting despite the Bush administration’s objections that diplomacy with Syria was vital. “We came in friendship, hope and determined that the road to Damascus is a road to peace,” she said. In 2011, John Kerry told the Carnegie Endowment that “President Assad has been very generous with me in terms of the discussions we have had. And when I last went to — the last several trips to Syria — I asked President Assad to do certain things to build the relationship with the United States.” According to the AP, Kerry listed six requests for Assad, including working together on Iraqi border security and said the Syrians fulfilled them all.

  In any case, the Syrian government certainly never attacked or threatened the United States. Intervening in that country did not serve to protect the American people in any way. The hawks would agree and claim this shows that selfless humanitarian concerns were at the core of their policy. The American Superman had to go and save the nice people. But that is not what the U.S. role in Syria was about. The policy was regime change.

  

  But after the rise of al Qaeda in Iraq in the aftermath of Iraq War II, the obvious question was if the U.S. did succeed in overthrowing the Ba’athist regime in Syria, what organized force in the country could possibly replace it? The obvious answer was the Muslim Brotherhood if you’re lucky. The Brotherhood had posed a major problem for the Syrian government in the past. In 1982, Bashar’s father, Hafez al-Assad, had massacred thousands of members of the Brotherhood, their supporters and nearby civilians in the town of Hama to successfully repress a fouryear armed Islamist uprising. Though the group remained mostly underground, it was obvious years before the war began that any attempt to overthrow the Ba’athists would benefit the Brotherhood first. The U.S. government knew it too. They did it anyway.

  * * *

  You can find Scott Horton’s new book Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism, here.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 18:50

• Sen. Leahy To Preside Over Trump’s Impeachment Trial
  Sen. Leahy To Preside Over Trump’s Impeachment Trial

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

  

  Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), president pro tempore of the Senate, will preside over next month’s impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump, Leahy said on Jan. 25.

  Leahy is 80. Both parties traditionally choose their eldest member to serve in the pro tempore role, which is essentially a backup for the president of the Senate, whenever they gain a majority in the body.

  “The president pro tempore has historically presided over Senate impeachment trials of non-presidents,” Leahy said in a statement. “When presiding over an impeachment trial, the president pro tempore takes an additional special oath to do impartial justice according to the Constitution and the laws. It is an oath that I take extraordinarily seriously.

  “I consider holding the office of the president pro tempore and the responsibilities that come with it to be one of the highest honors and most serious responsibilities of my career,” he said. “When I preside over the impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump, I will not waver from my constitutional and sworn obligations to administer the trial with fairness, in accordance with the Constitution and the laws.”

  The U.S. Constitution states that the Supreme Court’s chief justice shall preside when the president of the United States is tried in an impeachment trial. But once Trump left office last week, that threw Chief Justice John Roberts’s role into question; Roberts had presided over the first impeachment trial.

  

  Reports suggested that Roberts didn’t want to preside over a trial of the former president. Supreme Court spokespersons didn’t immediately respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment, nor did spokespersons for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) or Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

  Dozens of Republicans have voiced opposition to holding an impeachment trial for a former president; some have said that Roberts’s apparent reluctance to act as presiding judge is significant.

  “If Justice Roberts won’t preside over this sham ‘impeachment,’ then why would it ever be considered legitimate?” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said in a tweet last week.

  The House alleges in its single article of impeachment that Trump incited the Jan. 6 breach of the U.S. Capitol. The Senate expects to start the trial during the week of Feb. 8.

  Follow Zachary on Twitter: @zackstieber

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 01/25/2021 – 18:30