Today’s News 15th November 2019

  • Europe: The New Political Weapon Of 'Islamophobia'
    Europe: The New Political Weapon Of ‘Islamophobia’

    Authored by Alain Destexhe via The Gatestone Institute,

    France is once again profoundly divided over Islam. Last Sunday, November 10, a “March against Islamophobia” was held in Paris in response to an appeal from 50 public figures. In an op-ed in the leftist newspaper Libération, the demonstrators pleaded to “stop Islamophobia and stop the growing stigmatization of Muslims, victims of discrimination and aggression”.

    Two recent incidents ignited the public debate and served as a pretext for the march. On October 26, an 84-year-old man shot and injured two men while trying to set fire to the mosque of Bayonne. Earlier in October, in the Regional Assembly of Burgundy, a member of the National Rally party (RN) complained about the presence in the gallery of a woman wearing an Islamic headscarf. The French political class and media condemned both incidents almost unanimously.

    Among the signatories of the op-ed are Jean-Luc Mélenchon, president of La France Insoumise (“Unsubmissive France”), the most prominent leftist political party in the French National Assembly; Benoît Hamon, the Socialist Party candidate in the last presidential election; Philippe Martinez, leader of the Communist trade-union General Confederation of Labor (CGT); Yannick Jadot, a prominent Member of European Parliament from the Green party and Edwy Plenel, editor of Mediapart, a successful online media news platform and former editor of the newspaper Le Monde.

    The op-ed sparked a national debate. How could these established public figures sign a text alongside known Islamist sympathizers, such as Nader Abou Anas, an imam who believes that “women can only go out with the permission of their husband”, or Marwan Muhammad, the former CEO of the Collective against Islamophobia in France (CCIF) — an organization suspected of links with the Muslim Brotherhood — who compared the situation of Muslims in France today with those of the Jews in Germany in the 1930s, going so far as to add that “in France, mosques are machine-gunned” (“mitraillé“)?

    The debate was particularly tense within the Left. Historically, the Left in France was always a powerful advocate of secularism (“laïcité” in French; a strong separation between church and state). However, a portion of the Left now chooses to support multiculturalism and so-called “identity politics” and to ally itself with Islamists whose agenda opposes having a secular state. The alliance between the traditional Left and Islamists is often described as “Islamo-gauchisme” (“Islamo-leftism”). The controversy became so great that some of the signatories even decided to abstain from participating in the demonstration.

    The choice of the word “Islamophobia” as the central rallying call was, of course, not neutral. As noted by the journalist Stéphane Charbonnier, murdered in the Charlie Hebdo attack in 2015, in his posthumous book, Islamophobia “is not only a poorly chosen word but also a dangerous one.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Historically, the word Islamophobia — coined in the 1910s by a French colonial administrator — was rarely used until the 1990s. After Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, particularly after Ayatollah Khomeini’s fatwa against Salman Rushdie following the publication of The Satanic Verses, the term became used as a political weapon. The objective appears to have been to make Islam untouchable by placing any criticism of it as equivalent to racism or anti-Semitism.

    The word “Islamophobia” deliberately intends to transform the critique of a religion — a fundamental right in Western societies — into a crime.

    Pascal Bruckner, a French philosopher, suggested the role played by the concept. According to him:

    “The term ‘Islamophobia’ serves several functions. It denies the reality of an Islamic offensive in Europe all the better to justify it. It attacks secularism by equating it with fundamentalism. Above all, however, the term is intended to silence Muslims who question the Koran, who demand equality of the sexes, who claim the right to renounce their religion, and who want to practice their faith freely and without submitting to the dictates of the bearded and dogmatic.”

    Unfortunately, many media outlets and human rights groups fell directly into the trap and often use the word “Islamophobia” despite its lack of any legal basis or precise definition. Every time the word is used, it is a small victory for the Islamists.

    A phobia is an extreme irrational fear or an aversion to something. Why, however, is it irrational to be afraid of Islam when terrorists murder, and call for murder, in the name of their God? — even if the perpetrators are but a small minority among Muslims. Forty years ago, who could have imagined that terrorist attacks could be perpetrated in the United States or Europe in the name of a religion? In this context, being “Islamophobic” (being afraid of a religion) is not a crime. And it is light years’ different from “hating” Muslims “for being Muslims”. It is not Muslims people “hate,” any more than they hate Hindus or Buddhists or Shintos. It is the violence and coercion that some adopt — what is known as jihad or holy war — that people reject.

    The signatories were also severely criticized for their bias regarding the facts. Muslims are not targeted in France. According to the official records of the French government, last year, with 100 incidents, anti-Muslim acts were actually at their lowest level since 2010.

    By comparison, after two years of decline, the number of anti-Semitic incidents in 2018 rose sharply: 541 compared to 311 in 2017 — an increase of 74%. Eighty-one of the incidents included violence, attempted homicide, or homicide. The number of recorded anti-Christian incidents reached 1063, ten times more than anti-Muslim ones.

    The demonstration “against Islamophobia,” which drew 13,500 persons, took place on November 10, three days before the commemoration of the massive jihadi attacks in Paris in 2015 at the Bataclan Theater and other sites, in which terrorists murdered 131 persons and wounded 413. Is it irrational to remember who was calling those shots?


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/15/2019 – 02:00

  • Understanding The Deep State's Propaganda
    Understanding The Deep State’s Propaganda

    Authored by Eric Zuesse via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Propaganda is essential to the Deep State’s operation…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The Deep State is the small number of people who control the organizations that donate the majority of the funds which finance the political careers of national officials, such as Presidents, Prime Ministers, and members of the national legislature. Almost always, the members of the Deep State are the controlling stockholders in the international corporations that are headquartered in the given nation; and, therefore, the Deep State is more intensely interested in international than in purely national matters. Since most of its members derive a large portion of their wealth from abroad, they need to control their nation’s foreign policies even more than they need to control its domestic policies. Indeed, if they don’t like their nation’s domestic policies, they can simply relocate abroad. But relocating the operations of their corporations would be far more difficult and costly to them. Furthermore, a nation’s public know and care far less about the nation’s foreign than about its domestic policies; and, so, the Deep State reign virtually alone on the nation’s international issues, such as: which nations will be treated as “allies” and which nations will instead be treated as “enemies.” Such designations are virtually never determined by a nation’s public. The public just trust what the Government says about such matters, like, for example, the US regime’s standard allegation, for decades, that “Iran is the leading state sponsor of terrorism”, which is clearly a blatant lie.

    Iran, of course, is the world’s leading Shia nation, whereas Saudi Arabia is the world’s leading Sunni nation; and the US aristocracy are bonded to the aristocracies of both Saudi Arabia and Israel, against Iran. This allegation against Iran has always been promoted by the royal family who own Saudi Arabia, the Saud family, and also by the billionaires who control Israel, as well as by the billionaires who control the US So: this allegation is by the Deep State, which controls at least these three countries: US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.

    But, as was just said, this allegation by the Deep State is false: On 9 June 2017, I headlined “All Islamic Terrorism Is Perpetrated by Fundamentalist Sunnis, Except Terrorism Against Israel” and listed 54 terrorist attacks which had been prominent in US-and-allied media during 2001-2017, and all of them except for a few that were against Israel were attacks by Sunni groups — not affiliated with Iran. Subsequently, Kent R. Kroeger’s 16 May 2019 study “Is Iran the biggest state sponsor of terrorism?” concluded that overwhelmingly the majority of terrorist attacks ever since 1994 have been by Sunni groups, but he attributed the attacks by Yemen’s Shiite Houthis against Sunni Saudi Arabia as being “terrorist” attacks, even though these were instead actually responses to the Sauds’ war against, and to eliminate, Houthis in Yemen. Also, Kroeger attributed those Houthi actions to “Iran,” which is absurd. (The Houthis simply did not like being exterminated. And the US, of course, supplied the weapons and the military planning, for this attempted ethnic cleansing operation.) There were many other methodological flaws. And yet, still, even with its methodological flaws, Kroeger, concluded: “The distorted US propagandized image of Iran’s aggression looming over the Middle East is, frankly, ‘fake news.’” This is how untrustworthy the Deep State’s ‘news’ actually is. The term “fake news” is, in fact, misleading (or itself fake news) if it is not referring to the Deep State’s propaganda. In my 27 November 2017 “How the US Came to Label Iran the Top State Sponsor of Terrorism”, I described specifically the Deep State’s operation that had created the phrase “Iran is the leading state sponsor of terrorism”. But this is the way the Deep State operates, routinely, on all international issues. It operates by deceit. This is how it achieves the consent of the public, whom it actually rules. This is entirely consistent with the scientific findings about the United States, that it is a dictatorship, not a democracy. All of the evidence is consistent.

    The Deep State here is the US-and allied Deep State, no merely national organization. It consists mainly of America’s billionaires, plus of the billionaires in US-allied countries such as UK, France, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Israel — but many more (including, for example, in Honduras, Brazil, etc.). These people number fewer than 2,000 in total, and they do deals together, and their contacts with one-another are both direct person-to-person, and indirect by means of representatives or agents. However, America’s billionaires lead the US-and-allied Deep State. That’s to say, the leaders are among the 607 US billionaires, the people who mainly fund American national political campaigns and candidates — and these 607 individuals determine who will get an opportunity to become a US President or member of Congress, and who won’t. For example: these individuals don’t necessarily select the politician who will become America’s President, but they do select who will get the opportunity to be among the serious contenders for that position. (Basically, what the mullahs do in Iran, these super-rich do in America. Whereas in Iran the clergy rule, in America the aristocracy rule.)

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    One, in particular, is George Soros, and this article will detail the views of one of his many beneficiaries. Another of these billionaires is Charles Koch, but he will not be discussed here, and inside the United States he is popularly considered to be an enemy of George Soros, only because the two men oppose each other on domestic issues. (Billionaires tend to be much more concerned with, and united about, foreign affairs than about domestic affairs, though they do oppose both their taxation and their regulation — they are for ‘free markets’, both domestically and abroad, and yet they also favor imposition of economic sanctions against countries which resist becoming controlled by them, and so they don’t really favor free markets except to the extent that free markets favor their own increase in power and thus tend toward oligopoly and away from competition.) Both men are much more alike than different, and both represent what’s called “neoliberalism,” which is the universal ideology of billionaires, or at least of all billionaires who donate to (i.e., invest in) politicians. Only few billionaires don’t invest in politicians; and, though politicians disagree with one-another, almost all of them are neoliberals, because politicians who aren’t that are not funded by the Deep State (the billionaires). The foreign policies of neoliberals are called “neoconservative” and this means supporting regime-change in any country that’s labeled by billionaires and their government an “enemy” nation. So, “neoconservative” is merely an extension of “neoliberal”: it favors extending neoliberalism to other nations — it is internationally aggressive neoliberalism; it is imperialistic neoliberalism. It is fascism, but so is neoliberalism itself fascist; the difference between the two is that neoconservatism is the imperialistic extension of fascism — it is the imperialistic fascism that, in World War II, was represented by the three Axis powers — Germany, Italy, and Japan — not by the purely domestic fascism that was represented by Spain. Whereas Spain was merely neoliberal, the Axis were also neoconservative (expansionist neoliberal), and the latter is what the Allies in WW II were warring against. But now the US has emerged as the world’s leading neoconservative regime, invading and occupying country after country, none of which had ever invaded nor even threatened to invade the United States. Propaganda is necessary in order to ‘justify’ doing that. This article will describe how that’s done.

    The Deep State doesn’t concern domestic issues, because virtually all of its members control international corporations, and the Deep State is almost entirely about international issues: foreign policies, diplomacy, military issues, and international spying agencies called “intelligence agencies” — extending the empire. The Deep State controls all of that, regardless of what Party is nominally in power. (The public care little about foreign policy, pay little attention to it, and believe the government when it alleges that “national security” is about protecting them, and not about expanding the power and wealth of the billionaires.)

    The dictatorship of the US Deep State really is more international than national; it provides the continuity in international relations, when it chooses and defines which nations (which foreign governments) are “allies” (meaning “we sell arms to them”) and which are instead “enemies” (meaning “we should sanction them and maybe even bomb them”). Both allies and enemies are essential in order for the military-industrial-press-government complex (here: “MIPGC”) to thrive, and the Deep State controls the entire MIPGC. In other words: the Deep State is an international empire, and, as such, its supreme aspiration is to conquer (via subversion, sanctions, coups, and/or invasions) all countries that it labels as “enemies.”

    The way that the Deep State views things, there is no need for an ‘enemy’ to threaten or invade the United States in order for it to be “an enemy,” but, instead, the United States and its allies possess a God-given right to impose sanctions against, or coups overthrowing, or invasions of, any country they choose, so long as they can criticize that other country for being a ‘dictatorship’, or for ‘violating human rights’, or for otherwise doing what the Deep State itself actually does more than any other government on this planet does (and particularly does it to its selected ‘enemies’ — such as were Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran, Venezuela, and any other country that’s either friendly toward, or else an ally of, Russia, which is the other nuclear super-power, and the Deep State’s central target).

    However, though those few super-wealthy individuals (in addition to the general public’s taxes) fund its operations, their many operatives are true-believing followers (believers in neoliberalism-neoconservatism), and this is the reason why the masters fund those individuals’ careers. It’s why these masters provide the platforms and personal connections and employment which enable the true-believers to advance, while opponents of the Deep State (i.e., opponents of the billionaires’ collective dictatorship) cannot find any billionaires to patronize them. In a society that has extremely concentrated wealth, this means that there will be virtual penury for opponents of the billionaires’ collective dictatorship. Especially the major politicians need patrons amongst the aristocracy, the billionaires, in order to have successful careers.

    The beneficiary of the Deep State who will be exemplified, discussed, and finally quoted, here, will be Jacek Rostowski, who is also known as Jan Anthony, and as Jan Anthony Vincent-Rostowski. Wikipedia’s article on him opens:

    Jan Anthony Vincent-Rostowski, also known as Jacek Rostowski (Polish pronunciation: [ˈjan ˈvint͡sɛnt rɔsˈtɔfskʲi]; born 30 April 1951, London) is a British-Polish[1] economist and politician who served as Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland.

    He was a candidate for Change UK in London at the 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom.[2]

    It also says:

    From 1995 he has been Professor of Economics and was the head of the Department of Economics at the Central European University in Budapest during the periods: 1995–2000 and 2005–2006.[9] …

    Later career[edit]

    Rostowski was a member of Britain’s Conservative Party. In the beginning of 2010, it was announced that two months prior[15] he has become member of the Civic Platform party (PO). In the wake of the Parliamentary Elections of 2011, he became Member of Parliament, being elected from the list of Civic Platform Party (PO).[16]

    In late 2015, Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz appointed Rostowski as her top political adviser.[17]

    Vincent-Rostowski has published around 40 academic papers on European enlargement, monetary policy, currency policy and the transformation of post communist economies. He is the author of academic books including Macroeconomic Instability in Post-Communist Countries published by Oxford University Press.

    On November 3rd, the Ukrainian ‘news’-medium Apostrophe interviewed him, and published the interview in Ukrainian. (The interviewee isn’t fluent in Ukrainian, but the article’s translator into Ukrainian isn’t identified.) What will be posted here is an English translation of that Ukrainian original.

    The English “About” page on Apostrophe’s site says:

    Apostrophe started in August 2014.

    The site was aimed to prepare informational and analytical materials, presentations of important events in politics, economics, society and culture. Apostrophe’s editorial policy is based on principles of impartiality, precision and veracity, velocity, objectivity and balance in the presentation of information. Apostrophe sticks to journalism ethical standards. That is why published materials should not propagate violence, cruelty, cause racial, national or religious hatred. Apostrophe is a proponent of the common humanism values, peace, democracy, social progress and human rights.

    The project functions with the direct participation and use of the resources of the International Centre for Policy Studies (ICPS). Apostrophe’s idea lies within the framework of synergy between journalists and analysts.

    The “About” page on the International Centre for Policy Studies (ICPS) says:

    ICPS was founded in 1994 upon the initiative of the Prague-based Open Society Institute (OSI). At that moment, ICPS was the first independent think-tank in Ukraine.

    The Open Society Institute was founded by George Soros. He also founded the Central European University in Budapest, where the interviewee was employed for five years.

    Those are just the obvious ways in which the interviewee had been funded and advanced by Mr. Soros.

    Soros also had helped to fund the overthrow of the democratically elected and internationally non-aligned President of Ukraine in 2014 and to replace him with a nazi anti-Russian regime which serves as a terrific asset for the US-and-allied Deep State, because of Ukraine’s having a 1,625-mile border with the country that the US-installed regime in Ukraine hates: Russia (hates it because the Deep State craves, above all, to control also the other nuclear super-power; so, this is hatred-on-command).

    A basic presumption of that interview, both by the interviewer and by the interviewee, is the Russian Government’s being wrong in everything, and the Ukrainian Government’s — the regime which Obama (another of Soros’s beneficiaries) had installed — being right in everything. Here is this interview, as an illustrative example of how propaganda is professionally done:

    https://apostrophe.ua

    ORIGINAL OF THIS ARTICLE (in Ukrainian) (now translated here into English):

    Apostrophe: How would you describe the current state of security in the European region?

    Jan Anthony: Since 2014, military security has become a more important topic of discussion in Europe. After all, the events in Crimea and Donbass caused shock. After a long period of time, when defence issues were put on the back burner, they are now again becoming an important factor in the European security environment. Now there are serious problems requiring high priority and serious solutions. And, of course, there are other problems that relate to the same issue — the fight against terrorism, for example.

    The EU and NATO work very closely together to prepare for different types of threats. Now there is a return to a potential military conflict with Russia. In addition, there is an unsustainable security situation in the south, in Africa, because of the conflict in Libya, and in the Sahara. They can also pose a terrorist threat. Therefore, the issue of European security has become more complex than it was 5-10 years ago.

    “You specialize in managing military conflicts. How do you think the conflict in Ukraine can be solved?

    “Conflict management and conflict resolution are different things. Now I see attempts to create a more positive context in the Donbass issue. We need to return to the Minsk agreements as a basic resolution on the conflict. As you know, discussions are under way on the so-called Steinmeier formula. Therefore, now there is an opportunity to return to the discussion of how the Minsk agreements should be implemented. There are serious questions about the sequence of points — what should be done in the first place. And there is also the question of how to confirm the parties’ compliance with their obligations, because now there is a very low level of trust among the participants. Therefore, everything that will be done, it is necessary to immediately demonstrate — behold, it is fulfilled.

    How about the implementation of Minsk? Especially given that it has not worked for almost 5 years.

    “As I see it, no one is discussing any alternatives now. Perhaps among the people discussing ways to implement the agreements, there are other options, but I have no idea what they can be. The Minsk agreements are still in the spotlight.

    “Let’s talk about Crimea. What are the threats on the peninsula?

    “With Crimea it’s a different story than with Donbass. In Crimea there are facilities that can be a base for Russian nuclear weapons, including the Russian navy, capable of carrying nuclear weapons in the Black Sea. [NOTE HERE: Obama’s takeover of Ukraine was originally aimed at taking over Russia’s naval base in Crimea and installing an even larger US naval base there, against Russia.]

    “So the main threat is nuclear weapons?

    “Of course, it is an extremely serious threat by its nature. Any use of it would be disastrous.

    “Will the Kremlin decide to use these weapons in the near future? Or is it just a way to intimidate the West?

    “The primary objective of nuclear weapons is deterrence. This is the main goal with which Russia placed it in Crimea.

    “Is it possible to compare the situation with the Cuban crisis?

    “I would not say that these two situations are similar. There the crisis came very, very close to escalating into an armed conflict. I don’t think we’re going to get to that level of confrontation. [NOTE HERE: Both the interviewer and the interviewee ignore that instead of the Soviet Union’s 1962 attempt to place nuclear missiles on the island of Cuba 95 miles from America’s border, the US ploy now is to place its nuclear missiles right on Russia’s 1625-mile border with Russia — the discussants’ assumption reverses the actual threat, and thus insults their readers’ — or else their own — basic intelligence.] But now it is a very dangerous situation. We need to find more stable mechanisms that cannot be developed by comparing the situation to the Cuban crisis.

    “How can the Western world force Russia to take its weapons from Crimea?

    “Of course, the sanctions have had an effect. I’m sure they’ll stay — I don’t see any reason to take them off. International pressure on Russia will continue. Normalization of relations with it is impossible as long as the current situation in Crimea remains. And since Russia has no intention of leaving the peninsula, we will live for a long time in difficult relations with it, including sanctions, as well as cooperation of Western countries, taking into account possible military confrontation.

    “Let’s recall the attack on Ukrainian military vessels in the Kerch Strait, which occurred almost a year ago. How can we avoid the threat of further Russian attacks on Ukrainian and foreign ships?

    “Ukraine has lost control of part of its navigation, as well as guaranteed access to the Sea of Azov — and this is a complex problem. This issue must therefore remain the focus of international attention. Ukraine should have access to the water area and carry out commercial operations in ports. Georgia faced the same problem — the loss of control over navigation in a certain area. A special mechanism is needed to address these issues. But I have no suggestions on what it should be.

    “Russia recently blocked international waters in the Black Sea and thus blocked trade routes. How should the international community respond to such behaviour?

    “We must respect the International Convention on Navigation. We must continue to conduct military exercises in the Black Sea and it is important that NATO countries participate in them. Of course, there remains a risk that Russia will also organize its exercises. I think the ships will enjoy the freedom of navigation established by the International Convention. Some issues may need to be discussed more broadly for the sake of a future long-term convention. We need to make it more relevant to modern security requirements. It is important to revise time limits on stay in the Black Sea for NATO ships. Nato’s defence and deterrence plans should also be changed. NATO must have greater access to the Black Sea and its naval forces spend more time there.

    “Does the need to renegotiate international agreements on the weakness of international institutions, as well as their unpreparedness for strikes by Russia, speak?

    “Many countries have entered into bilateral agreements with Russia to ensure their confidence in the use of the sea. I think such deals need to be modernized, as well as add another agreement, which spells out a mechanism for discussing maritime incidents on the basis of international organizations, for example, under the OSCE umbrella. This will avoid misunderstandings that may arise from disregard for the rules.

    In the case of deliberate violations, for example, when military exercises block part of the Black Sea, other measures of influence will have to be used. And in that case, there must be a clear international response. If you look at the 2014 NATO summit at Brussels, there have been decisions that have had a very tough response in the event of any crisis. The only question is what to do to Ukraine, which is not a member of the Alliance and does not obey its decisions.

    “Regarding Russian military power. During the “Grom-2019” exercises, which were held recently under the personal guidance of Vladimir Putin, the nuclear submarine cruiser K-44 “Ryazan” fired only one ballistic intercontinental missile R-29R. The other missile just didn’t come out of the mine. This is not the first time that the Russian army has failed. So the question arises, is Russia really a threat to peace, all this is just a demonstration?

    “Russia can solve the problems that you have named. But no one doubts that it has an extremely powerful nuclear arsenal. Despite some problems with weapons, Russia is still very strong.

    “The Kremlin has promised to develop short- and medium-range missiles and deploy them to confront the West (in fact, they already exist — Iskanders). Does this mean that now the situation in Europe is close to the state of the Cold War, when the USSR and the West deployed iCBM for mutual deterrence?

    “Yes, Russia has already developed and deployed the ICBM. We don’t know if they’re all equipped with nuclear weapons. But for the balance of power, NATO must have a significant force with nuclear weapons.

    There are differences with the Cold War. Then there was complete separation and no contact between East and West. And now we have significant economic cooperation. It is still possible to hold political discussions, including with the participation of intergovernmental organizations. So now the situation is not quite the same as during the Cold War. But, as I said, the security situation in Europe is very difficult and relations with Russia deteriorate. The absence of signs that this deterioration is coming to an end is worrying. There are no very effective ways to improve relations with Russia. Therefore, there are different reasons for concern.

    “The Kremlin sent the S-400 division and the Panzir-S battery to Serbia to the Russian Air Defense Forces. This is, in fact, Russian military exercises near the EU. [NOTE HERE: The problem isn’t that Russia is moving too close to the EU — such as the discussants imply — but that NATO has moved right up to Russia’s borders. Again, the presumption insults readers’ — and/or their own — basic intelligence.] Is this preparation for a strike against the West?

    “Serbia’s position is that they want to have good relations with both their neighbors and NATO countries, but also with Russia. Serbia is also training with NATO countries. Serbia wants a balance of power, but in the event of a conflict it will support EU membership. It is politically and economically related to Western countries. Therefore, I do not believe that such exercises are the Kremlin’s preparation for an attack on the EU.

    “How would you assess the military threats to Europe in Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova?

    “It is difficult to answer because these are three different countries and the situation in each of them is completely different from the other.

    “Ukraine and Moldova have similar situations. Russian soldiers are still in Transnistria – the only difference is that the conflict there is frozen.

    “Yes, they are there, but they do not fight like in Ukraine.

    Do you believe that this frozen conflict can continue?

    “Today we think it’s not very likely.

    “Is Europe expecting a military strike from Russia?

    “No, we don’t expect it and we don’t expect it. But we do not rule it out, we allow it in our defense plans. Preparations are under way for these attacks, which means that their probability is reduced.

    “Russia invests heavily in European political parties like the French National Front or the League of the North in Italy. Is there any evidence that the Kremlin is investing in “militia” in EU countries and supplying weapons to Europe to shake up the situation. Perhaps it is funding crime to influence the situation in the EU?

    “There have been many investigations into ties with the Kremlin, in particular financial ties from politicians. The EU discusses a lot of cyber threats, the possibility of attacks on infrastructure, as well as information attacks. But I have never seen the Kremlin supply weapons to non-state organizations, especially criminal groups.

    “Russia has taken up the settlement of the issue in Syria. What’s going on out there now?

    “Officially, Russia is helping Bashar al-Assad’s forces gain control over Syrian territory. But what is happening now is, from the Kremlin’s point of view, the formation of a single strategic space, including the Black Sea and the eastern Mediterranean. Russia has free access to the Black Sea and now the Russian Navy has gained much greater access to the waters of the eastern Mediterranean. They plan to use this strategic space for a possible confrontation with NATO forces.

    “How can this affect Europe?

    “It’s a very difficult question. One issue of concern is the influx of refugees and temporarily displaced persons to Turkey and Europe. On the other hand, again, Russia’s creation of a single strategic space, interference in the Mediterranean.

    “Let’s go back to Ukraine. You are a nuclear safety expert. We have many nuclear power plants, can they pose a threat to the world in the event of full-scale aggression?

    “Yes, this is a very big threat, first of all for Ukraine itself, then for the rest of the world. One of the Ukrainian officials stated that this is why there was a significant revision of the concept of Ukraine’s security. It includes so-called “internal threats” to nuclear equipment and the creation of national protection, will protect and defend nuclear reactors. I think that the threat to the infrastructure of the nuclear power plant in Ukraine is real. But the Ukrainian government takes this seriously and takes the necessary measures.

    Conclusion

    As can be clearly seen there, the basic method of the Deep State’s propagandists is to ask questions which have assumptions that are the reverse of reality, and to answer these questions in ways that confirm those falsehoods.

    This is what many millions of people get paid to do.

    And it creates “Big Brother” or the Deep State here, just as, in 1948, George Orwell might have been thinking that it would do in 1984. And a good example of how the Deep State ‘justifies’ itself in America, is shown here.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 23:45

  • The Cheapest Places To Rent An Apartment In The U.S.
    The Cheapest Places To Rent An Apartment In The U.S.

    Americans who are looking for a deal on an apartment might want to check out Ohio

    As Statista’s Maria Vultaggio notes, the state has two cities with with the least expensive zip codes in the U.S., according to ApartmentGuide.com. 

    Infographic: The Cheapest Places To Rent An Apartment In The U.S. | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    A one-bedroom apartment in Columbus, Ohio, costs $489 a month. It’s the only zip code on the list that’s under $500.

    Rogers, Arkansas and Greenville, Texas, were tied for second least expensive, with monthly rents costing $510. Cities like Oklahoma City, Champaign, Illinois and Shreveport, Louisiana, cost under $550 per month.

    Conway, Arkansas fell in the middle of the last with $555 per month for a one-bedroom apartment and Amarillo, Texas, Derby, Kansas, and Youngstown, Ohio finished off the least expensive zip codes by costing renters about $600 per month.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 23:25

  • Casualties Of War: Military Veterans Have Become America's Walking Wounded
    Casualties Of War: Military Veterans Have Become America’s Walking Wounded

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    Come you masters of war / You that build the big guns

    You that build the death planes / You that build all the bombs

    You that hide behind walls / You that hide behind desks

    I just want you to know / I can see through your masks….

    You fasten all the triggers / For the others to fire

    Then you sit back and watch / When the death count gets higher

    You hide in your mansion / While the young people’s blood

    Flows out of their bodies / And is buried in the mud.

    — Bob Dylan, “Masters of War”

    War drives the American police state.

    The military-industrial complex is the world’s largest employer.

    War sustains our way of life while killing us at the same time. As Pulitzer Prize-winning war correspondent and author Chris Hedges observes:

    War is like a poison. And just as a cancer patient must at times ingest a poison to fight off a disease, so there are times in a society when we must ingest the poison of war to survive. But what we must understand is that just as the disease can kill us, so can the poison. If we don’t understand what war is, how it perverts us, how it corrupts us, how it dehumanizes us, how it ultimately invites us to our own self-annihilation, then we can become the victim of war itself.

    War also entertains us with its carnage, its killing fields, its thrills and chills and bloodied battles set to music and memorialized in books, on television, in video games, and in superhero films and blockbuster Hollywood movies financed in part by the military.

    Americans are fed a steady diet of pro-war propaganda that keeps them content to wave flags with patriotic fervor and less inclined to look too closely at the mounting body counts, the ruined lives, the ravaged countries, the blowback arising from ill-advised targeted-drone killings and bombing campaigns in foreign lands, or the transformation of our own homeland into a warzone.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Nowhere is this double-edged irony more apparent than during military holidays, when we get treated to a generous serving of praise and grandstanding by politicians, corporations and others with similarly self-serving motives eager to go on record as being pro-military.

    Yet war is a grisly business, a horror of epic proportions.

    In terms of human carnage alone, war’s devastation is staggering. For example, it is estimated that approximately 231 million people died worldwide during the wars of the 20th century. This figure does not take into account the walking wounded—both physically and psychologically—who “survive” war.

    Many of those who have served in the military are among America’s walking wounded.

    Despite the fact that the U.S. boasts more than 20 million veterans who have served in World War II through the present day, the plight of veterans today has become America’s badge of shame, with large numbers of veterans impoverished, unemployed, traumatized mentally and physically, struggling with depression, suicide, and marital stress, homeless, subjected to sub-par treatment at clinics and hospitals, and left to molder while their paperwork piles up within Veterans Administration offices.

    According to a recent report by the Department of Veterans Affairs, at least 60,000 veterans died by suicide between 2008 and 2017.

    On average, 6,000 veterans kill themselves every year, and the numbers are on the rise.

    As Brené Brown, research professor at the University of Houston, observed, For soldiers serving in Afghanistan and Iraq, coming home is more lethal than being in combat.”

    Unfortunately, it’s the U.S. government that poses the greater threat to America’s military veterans, especially if they are among that portion of the population that exercises their First Amendment right to speak out against government wrongdoing.

    Consider: we raise our young people on a steady diet of militarism and war, sell them on the idea that defending freedom abroad by serving in the military is their patriotic duty, then when they return home, bruised and battle-scarred and committed to defending their freedoms at home, we often treat them like criminals merely for exercising those rights they risked their lives to defend.

    The government even has a name for its war on America’s veterans: Operation Vigilant Eagle.

    As first reported by the Wall Street Journal, this Department of Homeland Security (DHS) program tracks military veterans returning from Iraq and Afghanistan and characterizes them as extremists and potential domestic terrorist threats because they may be “disgruntled, disillusioned or suffering from the psychological effects of war.”

    Coupled with the DHS’ dual reports on Rightwing and Leftwing “Extremism,” which broadly define extremists as individuals, military veterans and groups “that are mainly antigovernment, rejecting federal authority in favor of state or local authority, or rejecting government authority entirely,” these tactics bode ill for anyone seen as opposing the government.

    Yet the government is not merely targeting individuals who are voicing their discontent so much as it is taking aim at individuals trained in military warfare.

    Don’t be fooled by the fact that the DHS has gone extremely quiet about Operation Vigilant Eagle.

    Where there’s smoke, there’s bound to be fire.

    And the government’s efforts to target military veterans whose views may be perceived as “anti-government” make clear that something is afoot.

    In recent years, military servicemen and women have found themselves increasingly targeted for surveillance, censorship, threatened with incarceration or involuntary commitment, labeled as extremists and/or mentally ill, and stripped of their Second Amendment rights.

    An important point to consider, however, is that under the guise of mental health treatment and with the complicity of government psychiatrists and law enforcement officials, these veterans are increasingly being portrayed as threats to national security.

    In light of the government’s efforts to lay the groundwork to weaponize the public’s biomedical data and predict who might pose a threat to public safety based on mental health sensor data (a convenient means by which to penalize certain “unacceptable” social behaviors), encounters with the police could get even more deadly, especially if those involved have a mental illness or disability coupled with a military background.

    Incredibly, as part of a proposal being considered by the Trump Administration, a new government agency HARPA (a healthcare counterpart to the Pentagon’s research and development arm DARPA) will take the lead in identifying and targeting “signs” of mental illness or violent inclinations among the populace by using artificial intelligence to collect data from Apple Watches, Fitbits, Amazon Echo and Google Home.

    These tactics are not really new.

    Many times throughout history in totalitarian regimes, such governments have declared dissidents mentally ill and unfit for society as a means of disempowering them.

    As Pulitzer Prize-winning author Anne Applebaum observes in Gulag: A History: “The exile of prisoners to a distant place, where they can ‘pay their debt to society,’ make themselves useful, and not contaminate others with their ideas or their criminal acts, is a practice as old as civilization itself. The rulers of ancient Rome and Greece sent their dissidents off to distant colonies. Socrates chose death over the torment of exile from Athens. The poet Ovid was exiled to a fetid port on the Black Sea.”

    For example, government officials in the Cold War-era Soviet Union often used psychiatric hospitals as prisons in order to isolate political prisoners from the rest of society, discredit their ideas, and break them physically and mentally through the use of electric shocks, drugs and various medical procedures.

    Insisting that “ideas about a struggle for truth and justice are formed by personalities with a paranoid structure,” the psychiatric community actually went so far as to provide the government with a diagnosis suitable for locking up such freedom-oriented activists.

    In addition to declaring political dissidents mentally unsound, Russian officials also made use of an administrative process for dealing with individuals who were considered a bad influence on others or troublemakers.

    Author George Kennan describes a process in which:

    The obnoxious person may not be guilty of any crime . . . but if, in the opinion of the local authorities, his presence in a particular place is “prejudicial to public order” or “incompatible with public tranquility,” he may be arrested without warrant, may be held from two weeks to two years in prison, and may then be removed by force to any other place within the limits of the empire and there be put under police surveillance for a period of from one to ten years. Administrative exile–which required no trial and no sentencing procedure–was an ideal punishment not only for troublemakers as such, but also for political opponents of the regime.

    Sound familiar?

    This age-old practice by which despotic regimes eliminate their critics or potential adversaries by declaring them mentally ill and locking them up in psychiatric wards for extended periods of time is a common practice in present-day China.

    What is particularly unnerving, however, is how this practice of eliminating or undermining potential critics, including military veterans, is happening with increasing frequency in the United States.

    Remember, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) opened the door for the government to detain as a threat to national security anyone viewed as a troublemaker. According to government guidelines for identifying domestic extremists—a word used interchangeably with terrorists—technically, anyone exercising their First Amendment rights in order to criticize the government qualifies.

    It doesn’t take much anymore to be flagged as potentially anti-government in a government database somewhere—Main Core, for example—that identifies and tracks individuals who aren’t inclined to march in lockstep to the government’s dictates.

    In fact, as the Washington Post reports, communities are being mapped and residents assigned a color-coded threat score—green, yellow or red—so police are forewarned about a person’s potential inclination to be a troublemaker depending on whether they’ve had a career in the military, posted a comment perceived as threatening on Facebook, suffer from a particular medical condition, or know someone who knows someone who might have committed a crime.

    The case of Brandon Raub is a prime example of Operation Vigilant Eagle in action.

    Raub, a 26-year-old decorated Marine, actually found himself interrogated by government agents about his views on government corruption, arrested with no warning, labeled mentally ill for subscribing to so-called “conspiratorial” views about the government, detained against his will in a psych ward for standing by his views, and isolated from his family, friends and attorneys.

    On August 16, 2012, a swarm of local police, Secret Service and FBI agents arrived at Raub’s Virginia home, asking to speak with him about posts he had made on his Facebook page made up of song lyrics, political opinions and dialogue used in a political thriller virtual card game.

    Among the posts cited as troublesome were lyrics to a song by a rap group and Raub’s views, shared increasingly by a number of Americans, that the 9/11 terrorist attacks were an inside job.

    After a brief conversation and without providing any explanation, levying any charges against Raub or reading him his rights, Raub was then handcuffed and transported to police headquarters, then to a medical center, where he was held against his will due to alleged concerns that his Facebook posts were “terrorist in nature.”

    Outraged onlookers filmed the arrest and posted the footage to YouTube, where it quickly went viral. Meanwhile, in a kangaroo court hearing that turned a deaf ear to Raub’s explanations about the fact that his Facebook posts were being read out of context, Raub was sentenced to up to 30 days’ further confinement in a psychiatric ward.

    Thankfully, The Rutherford Institute came to Raub’s assistance, which combined with heightened media attention, brought about his release and may have helped prevent Raub from being successfully “disappeared” by the government.

    Even so, within days of Raub being seized and forcibly held in a VA psych ward, news reports started surfacing of other veterans having similar experiences.

    “Oppositional defiance disorder” (ODD) is another diagnosis being used against veterans who challenge the status quo. As journalist Anthony Martin explains, an ODD diagnosis

    “denotes that the person exhibits ‘symptoms’ such as the questioning of authority, the refusal to follow directions, stubbornness, the unwillingness to go along with the crowd, and the practice of disobeying or ignoring orders. Persons may also receive such a label if they are considered free thinkers, nonconformists, or individuals who are suspicious of large, centralized government… At one time the accepted protocol among mental health professionals was to reserve the diagnosis of oppositional defiance disorder for children or adolescents who exhibited uncontrollable defiance toward their parents and teachers.”

    Frankly, based on how well my personality and my military service in the U.S. Armed Forces fit with this description of “oppositional defiance disorder,” I’m sure there’s a file somewhere with my name on it.

    That the government is using the charge of mental illness as the means by which to immobilize (and disarm) these veterans is diabolical. With one stroke of a magistrate’s pen, these veterans are being declared mentally ill, locked away against their will, and stripped of their constitutional rights.

    If it were just being classified as “anti-government,” that would be one thing.

    Unfortunately, anyone with a military background and training is also now being viewed as a heightened security threat by police who are trained to shoot first and ask questions later.

    Feeding this perception of veterans as ticking time bombs in need of intervention, the Justice Department launched a pilot program in 2012 aimed at training SWAT teams to deal with confrontations involving highly trained and often heavily armed combat veterans.

    The result?

    Police encounters with military veterans often escalate very quickly into an explosive and deadly situation, especially when SWAT teams are involved.

    For example, Jose Guerena, a Marine who served in two tours in Iraq, was killed after an Arizona SWAT team kicked open the door of his home during a mistaken drug raid and opened fire. Thinking his home was being invaded by criminals, Guerena told his wife and child to hide in a closet, grabbed a gun and waited in the hallway to confront the intruders. He never fired his weapon. In fact, the safety was still on his gun when he was killed. The SWAT officers, however, not as restrained, fired 70 rounds of ammunition at Guerena—23 of those bullets made contact. Apart from his military background, Guerena had had no prior criminal record, and the police found nothing illegal in his home.

    John Edward Chesney, a 62-year-old Vietnam veteran, was killed by a SWAT team allegedly responding to a call that the Army veteran was standing in his San Diego apartment window waving what looked like a semi-automatic rifle. SWAT officers locked down Chesney’s street, took up positions around his home, and fired 12 rounds into Chesney’s apartment window. It turned out that the gun Chesney reportedly pointed at police from three stories up was a “realistic-looking mock assault rifle.”

    Ramon Hooks’ encounter with a Houston SWAT team did not end as tragically, but it very easily could have. Hooks, a 25-year-old Iraq war veteran, was using an air rifle gun for target practice outside when a Homeland Security Agent, allegedly house shopping in the area, reported him as an active shooter. It wasn’t long before the quiet neighborhood was transformed into a war zone, with dozens of cop cars, an armored vehicle and heavily armed police. Hooks was arrested, his air rifle pellets and toy gun confiscated, and charges filed against him for “criminal mischief.”

    Given the government’s increasing view of veterans as potential domestic terrorists, it makes one think twice about government programs encouraging veterans to include a veterans designation on their drivers’ licenses and ID cards.

    Hailed by politicians as a way to “make it easier for military veterans to access discounts from retailers, restaurants, hotels and vendors across the state,” it will also make it that much easier for the government to identify and target veterans who dare to challenge the status quo.

    After all, no one is spared in a police state.

    Eventually, as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, we all suffer the same fate.

    It stands to reason that if the government can’t be bothered to abide by its constitutional mandate to respect the citizenry’s rights—whether it’s the right to be free from government surveillance and censorship, the right to due process and fair hearings, the right to be free from roadside strip searches and militarized police, or the right to peacefully assemble and protest and exercise our right to free speech—then why should anyone expect the government to treat our nation’s veterans with respect and dignity?

    Here’s a suggestion: if you really want to do something to show your respect and appreciation for the nation’s veterans, why not skip the parades and the flag-waving and instead go exercise your rights—the freedoms that those veterans swore to protect—by pushing back against the government’s tyranny.

    It’s time the rest of the nation did its part to safeguard the freedoms we too often take for granted.

    Freedom is not free.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 23:05

    Tags

  • China Is About To Get Angry: US Senate To Vote Show Of Support For Hong Kong Protesters
    China Is About To Get Angry: US Senate To Vote Show Of Support For Hong Kong Protesters

    As noted moments ago, futures ramped to new record highs rising above 3,100 following a quote from top Trump advisor Larry Kudlow, who has figured out that he gets most bang for the buck in juicing futures when liquidity is virtually nil, around 8pm or so, when he told reporters that Phase One of the China deal is “down to the short strokes”, adding that “we are in communication with them every single day right now”, and repeating that “a deal is close”, even if “it’s not done yet.”

    And yet, while such Deal On/Deal Off market manipulation is nothing new and has been going on for over a year and a half, there is the possibility that China is about to be royally pissed off, if not by Trump for whom a China (non) “deal” is critical to pushing the market to all time highs just before the 2020 presidential election and thus will not dare to anger Xi Jinping over the ongoing fiasco that is Hong Kong, then by the Senate, which is preparing for quick passage of legislation to show support for pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong by placing the city’s special trading status with the U.S. under annual review.

    According to Bloomberg, the Senate is set to bring the bill to the floor under an expedited process that would allow for quick passage unless there is an objection, according to the lead sponsor, Republican Senator Marco Rubio. And since it is unlikely anyone will object, the bill is expected to pass as early as next week.

    “The world witnesses the people of Hong Kong standing up every day to defend their long-cherished freedoms against an increasingly aggressive Beijing and Hong Kong government,” Rubio said. “Now more than ever, the United States must send a clear message to Beijing that the free world stands with Hong Kongers in their struggle.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Rubio and Democratic co-sponsor, Senator Ben Cardin, have garnered broad bipartisan support for their bill, including from Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch, who has pressed Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for a swift vote. Rubio and McConnell met late Wednesday to hash out a way forward for the legislation, which would also levy sanctions on people the president finds responsible for human rights violations.

    “The world needs to see that the United States will stand up and tell the Chinese Communist Party that what they are doing to the people of Hong Kong is wrong,” Risch said in a statement. “The U.S. stands with the people of Hong Kong, and I look forward to continuing to work with Senate leadership and my colleagues across the aisle to move this bill swiftly.”

    While it is unclear what the Senate’s vote will achieve, besides potentially removing any hope for even a “phase one” deal, Hong Kong has been paralyzed since Monday morning, when a demonstrator was shot during protests.

    Meanwhile, Bloomberg notes that the White House declined to comment Thursday when asked whether Trump would sign it into law; a veto by Trump would indicate that for all the belligerent posturing, Trump and Xi have long since reached an agreement behind the scenes, whereby China “folds” to Trump’s demands, while Trump refuses to intervene in Hong Kong.

    The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act would require the State Department to certify at least once a year whether Hong Kong should keep its special status under U.S. law. This legislation is slightly different from the version passed by the House of Representatives, which means the two bills would have to be reconciled and passed by both chambers before going to President Donald Trump.

    Predictably, on a day when China’s president Xi said that “stopping the storm and restoring order” in Hong Kong is the most urgent task for Hong Kong, once again raising the possibility of military intervention by the PLA, the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Thursday warned of retaliation if the measure passes Congress, adding that China will take resolute measures to safeguard its interests, and repeating that the US should immediately stop interference in Hong Kong issues.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 22:45

    Tags

  • PBS Frontline's "In The Age of AI" Exposes Big-Tech's Ongoing Abuse Of Public Trust
    PBS Frontline’s “In The Age of AI” Exposes Big-Tech’s Ongoing Abuse Of Public Trust

    Authored by B.N.Frank via AcivistPost.com,

    You won’t see cell phones or personal computers much in movies or TV shows until the late 1990s because most people didn’t own them.  Of course most people didn’t need them either.  If you couldn’t afford a “home phone” – pay phones usually weren’t hard to find.  Anyone who needed to be “on call” – like doctors – wore pagers.

    People who grew up without new technology know firsthand that it has made the world better in some ways. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    We also know that it has made it worse in others.  People who never knew the world without new technology have been conditioned to believe that all of it is necessary as well as beneficial.  Unfortunately, that’s not the case.  5G is very dangerous (see 1234, 56, 7, 8).  Artificial Intelligence (AI) is associated with many risks as well.

    There will always be people who want more technology regardless of the human and environmental consequences.  Those kinds of people are not going to like Frontline’s “In the Age of AI”.

    FRONTLINE investigates the promise and perils of artificial intelligence, from fears about work and privacy to rivalry between the U.S. and China. The documentary traces a new industrial revolution that will reshape and disrupt our lives, our jobs and our world, and allow the emergence of the surveillance society.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 22:25

  • Forget GDP: Here Is The Scariest Data From China
    Forget GDP: Here Is The Scariest Data From China

    Yesterday, shortly before China’s data deluge, we reported that a Beijing-based think tank became the first Chinese economic research institute linked to the government to predict that China’s economic growth rate will slow below 6.0% next year. Specifically, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.

    “The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). “We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”

    The problem is that even a sub-6% number is wildly optimistic and misrepresents the true state of China’s economy considering that back in August, Fathom Consulting calculated that growth in the second largest economy had already shrunk to 4.6% and was declining.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Source: Bloomberg

    Of course, shortly thereafter China released its latest retail sales, fixed investment and industrial production data, all of which missed badly and worse, the data showed the weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Source: Bloomberg

    However, while the slowdown in China’s economy has been widely telegraphed for years, a more ominous development is taking place in China’s financial system, which at roughly $40 trillion is not only nearly double the size of that of the US, but is the world’s biggest. It is here, that one find not only an escalating loss of faith by the market, but confirmation that China’s all important credit channel is increasingly clogged up, if not outright broken.

    Following the Q3 earnings releases from Chinese banks, Saxo Bank’s Peter Garnry has updated his market cap to total assets ratio for the four largest commercial banks in China. What he found is that the ratio hit a new all-time low of 5.8% in Q3 as total assets grew an annualized 8% in Q3 while market cap of the four banks declined.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    This means that Chinese investors – who happen to know best what is truly going on behind the scenes – are not valuing these new assets as high quality, and the most likely dynamic in China right now is that the current credit expansion is just offsetting the surge in bad loans, whose real amount Beijing is naturally keep under wraps. The net effect is zero credit transmission to the real economy in China constraining economic growth, which in a time of collapsing total social credit…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    … and virtually non-existent credit impulse…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    … simply means that the country that in 2008 pulled the world out of a global depression, will not be able to do so again.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 22:05

  • DHS Expects To Have The Biometrics Data Of 259 Million People By 2022
    DHS Expects To Have The Biometrics Data Of 259 Million People By 2022

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) expects to have face, fingerprint, and iris scans of at least 259 million people in its biometrics database by 2022. Is there any way to escape the mass surveillance and tracking that George Orwell warned us all about in his iconic book, 1984?

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The Orwellian police state is upon us, but don’t expect it to improve at all.  In fact, as George Orwell said: “If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face – forever.”

    According to a recent presentation from the DHS’s Office of Procurement Operations which was reviewed by Quartz, the 259 million in the database is about 40 million more than the agency’s 2017 projections. In those estimates, the agency expected to have the data of 220 million unique identities by 2022, according to previous figures cited by the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF), a San Francisco-based privacy rights nonprofit.

    The agency is transitioning from a legacy system called IDENT to a cloud-based system (hosted by Amazon Web Services) known as Homeland Advanced Recognition Technology, or HART. The biometrics collection maintained by DHS is the world’s second-largest, behind only India’s countrywide biometric ID network in size. The traveler data kept by DHS is shared with other US agencies, state and local law enforcement, as well as foreign governments. –Quartz

    Your data hasn’t been private for a long time and it won’t be ever again as long as governments believe they are allowed to hoard it – all in the name of keeping you safe, of course. The first two stages of the HART system are being developed by United States defense contractor Northrop Grumman, which won the $95 million contract in February 2018. DHS wasn’t immediately available to comment on its plans for its database.

    Biometrics “make it possible to confirm the identity of travelers at any point in their travel,” Kevin McAleenan, US President Donald Trump’s recently-departed acting DHS secretary, told Congress last year. The criteria used by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officersa division of DHS, to screen out specific travelers as suspicious is top secret, but was determined in conjunction with Palantir, the Silicon Valley data-mining firm co-founded by controversial billionaire and ardent Trump supporter Peter Thiel. The EFF said it believes CBP could be tracking travelers “from the moment they begin their internet travel research.” As the group has noted, DHS says “the only way for an individual to ensure he or she is not subject to collection of biometric information when traveling internationally is to refrain from traveling.” –Quartz

    Last month’s DHS presentation describes IDENT as an “operational biometric system for rapid identification and verification of subjects using fingerprints, iris, and face modalities.” According to further reporting by Quartz, the new HART database “builds upon the foundational functionality within IDENT,” to include voice data, DNA profiles, “scars, marks, and tattoos,” and the as-yet-undefined “other biometric modalities as required.” EFF researchers caution some of the data will be “highly subjective,” such as information gleaned during “officer encounters” and analysis of people’s “relationship patterns.”

    So basically, if you ever leave your house, expect the government to track and monitor your every move and make sure “highly subjective” information is used to ensure you remain enslaved. The “land of free?” I hardly think so.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 21:45

  • Russia Says BRICS Seeking Common, Non-Dollar Payment System
    Russia Says BRICS Seeking Common, Non-Dollar Payment System

    The fracturing of the global economy and de-dollarization appear to be full-steam ahead. 

    Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, simplified as BRICS, are five emerging national economies that are developing a new universal payment system to challenge the US’ SWIFT international payment network, a Russian official was quoted by Reuters on Thursday.  

    Russia’s de-dollarization effort has gained momentum in the last several years, in line with President Putin’s commitment to reduce the country’s vulnerability to the continuing threat of US sanctions. But it’s not just Russia who wants to lessen their dependence on dollars for trade, it’s the entire economic bloc. 

    Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), said, “increasing non-market risks of the global payment infrastructure” is behind the push to develop a new international payment system for BRICS peers. 

    “An efficient BRICS payment system can encourage payments in national currencies and ensure sustainable payments and investments among our countries, which make up over 20% of the global inflow of foreign direct investment,” Dmitriev said.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Dmitriev said BRICS peers have also been discussing a new common cryptocurrency for mutual payments as another workaround to the dollar. 

    He said Russia had made a considerable effort over the last several years to reduce dollars in foreign trade. In the last several years, Russian foreign trade payments in dollars have dropped to 50% from 92%, while rouble transactions have jumped from14% to 3%, he added. 

    On Wednesday, Russian Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev was quoted by Reuters as saying the Russian sovereign wealth fund will reduce US Dollars and is studying whether it should add Chinese yuan.  

    Last month, Russian Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin told the Financial Times that the country would continue down the path of de-dollarization and begin trading some oil transactions in Euros and roubles.

    Russia’s desire to abandon the dollar is a trend that continues to flourish — now it appears BRICS peers could be following down the same path. This will certainly irritate Washington. 

     


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 21:25

  • Soros Demands Fox News Ban "Ludicrous" Trump Ally Joe DiGenova
    Soros Demands Fox News Ban “Ludicrous” Trump Ally Joe DiGenova

    The president of George Soros’ Open Society Foundations demanded that Fox News ban former federal prosecutor and Trump ally Joe diGenova for claiming that the Hungarian-American billionaire “controls a very large part of the career foreign service of the United States State Department.”


    In response to diGenova’s comments, Open Society president Eric Wemple said in a Friday letter to Fox News Media CEO Suzanne Scott that diGenova’s comments are “beyond fiction” and “beyond ludicrous.”

    Others, such as ADL President Jonathan Greenblatt, suggested diGenova was using an ‘anti-Semitic trope’ against Soros, who is Jewish.

    As The Hill’s John Solomon reported in March, in 2016 Obama administration officials sought to suppress a Ukrainian corruption probe into an NGO bankrolled by both the US government and Hungarian-American billionaire George Soros. 

    When Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office tried to investigate an alleged misallocation of $4.4 million in US funds, which was supposed to go toward anti-corruption initiatives, US embassy officials came down hard to shut down the investigation altogether. “We ran right into a buzzsaw and we got bloodied,” a senior Ukrainian official told The Hill.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    George Kent

    Notably, former State Department official George Kent (One of the Democrats’ star witnesses in Wednesday’s public impeachment hearings), recommended in April 2016 that Ukraine stop investigating a Soros-funded entity in Ukraine, AntAC.

    The investigation into the Anti-Corruption Action Center (sic), based on the assistance they have received from us, is similarly misplaced,” wrote Kent. 

    While the 2016 presidential race was raging in America, Ukrainian prosecutors ran into some unexpectedly strong headwinds as they pursued an investigation into the activities of a nonprofit in their homeland known as the Anti-Corruption Action Centre (AntAC).

    The focus on AntAC — whose youthful street activists famously wore “Ukraine F*&k Corruption” T-shirts — was part of a larger probe by Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office into whether $4.4 million in U.S. funds to fight corruption inside the former Soviet republic had been improperly diverted.

    The prosecutors soon would learn the resistance they faced was blowing directly from the U.S. Embassy in Kiev, where the Obama administration took the rare step of trying to press the Ukrainian government to back off its investigation of both the U.S. aid and the group. –The Hill

    DiGenova, an attorney for Solomon, may be included in a batch of communications that a federal judge ordered the State Department to hand over regarding Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani’s communications with top department officials.

    The judge ruled that the department had 30 days to turn over the documents, but that both parties needed to meet to narrow the scope of American Oversight’s request. 

    The State Department is agreeing to search for records related to external communications between Giuliani, his associates Victoria Toensing and Joseph diGenova and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, according to the status report released Wednesday.

    The report says that “to the extent responsive records exist” the State Department will “process and produce” the documents “with appropriate redactions” by Nov. 22. 

    The department has also agreed to process communications between Giuliani and some of Pompeo’s advisers, including including State Department counselor Ulrich Brechbuhl and former senior adviser Michael McKinley. –The Hill

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The State Department search for records will include a review of emails, text messages, calendar entries and messaging platforms – as well as any correspondence regarding Giuliani, Toensing or diGenova’s plans to travel to Ukraine or encourage the country’s government to investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter, who have been accused of corruption.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 21:25

    Tags

  • Red Ponzi Panic: Chinese Hospitals Begging Nurses For Loans To Stay Afloat
    Red Ponzi Panic: Chinese Hospitals Begging Nurses For Loans To Stay Afloat

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

    Speculative loans in China are souring rapidly. Ruzhou, a city of one million people provides examples.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Struggling to keep its economy growing, the city of Ruzhou spent big, but is now asking its health care workers for cash to stay afloat.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Begging Nurses for Money

    The New York Times asks How Bad Is China’s Debt?

    Ruzhou, a city of one million people in central China, urgently needed a new hospital, their bosses said. To pay for it, the administrators were asking health care workers for loans. If employees didn’t have the money, they were pointed to banks where they could borrow it and then turn it over to the hospital.

    Ruzhou is a city with a borrowing problem — and an emblem of the trillions of dollars in debt threatening the Chinese economy.

    Local governments borrowed for years to create jobs and keep factories humming. Now China’s economy is slowing to its weakest pace in nearly three decades, but Beijing has kept the lending spigots tight to quell its debt problems. Increasingly these deals are going sour, as they did in Ruzhou, and the loans are going unpaid. Lenders have accused three of Ruzhou’s hospitals and three investment funds tied to the city of not paying back their debts.

    Local officials have long used big spending to keep the economy growing. Ruzhou is home to a number of white-elephant projects, including a stadium and sports complex turned e-commerce center, now largely unused. A shantytown redevelopment project, begun four years ago to give rural residents new homes, has been slowed for lack of money, locals said.

    Doctors and nurses at the traditional Chinese medicine hospital complained to one local state-owned newspaper that they were being ordered to give between $14,000 and $28,000. At Ruzhou Maternal and Child Health Hospital, nurses and doctors were told they had to invest between $8,500 and $14,000, according to government online forums and state media.

    Ruzhou officials did not respond to repeated requests for comment. Two employees of The New York Times who traveled to the city were briefly held by the police and forced to leave.

    Tip of the Iceberg

    Ruzhou has several hospitals in trouble, an unused sports stadium, a cultural complex in shambles, and a failed shantytown project.

    Play this same scene throughout China.

    It’s everywhere.

    Nobody is quite sure how big the problem might be. Beijing says the total is about $2.5 trillion. Vincent Zhu, an analyst at Rhodium Group, a research firm, puts the figure at more than $8 trillion.

    Factor in the world’s worst air pollution and water supplies you would have to be crazy to drink from.

    Yet, US hyperinflationists think the dollar will collapse to nothing, Chinese debt somehow doesn’t matter, China will soon rule the world, and the yuan will displace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

    I suggest Forget the Yuan: King Dollar is Here to Stay for quite some time.

    The yuan is not even close to competing with the dollar for at least six reasons.

    Meanwhile, Chinese growth is hugely overstated and its massive debt problem little understood.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 21:05

  • Dems Aren't Going To Condemn This Trump-Putin Cooperation
    Dems Aren’t Going To Condemn This Trump-Putin Cooperation

    Independent journalist David Mizner notes “Dems aren’t going to criticize this Trump-Putin cooperation” as Moscow has now recognized Jeanine Añez as Bolivia’s self-declared interim president until the protest-wracked South American nation’s next elections.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    This came two days after Washington did the same, with Acting Assistant Secretary for US Department of State’s Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs Michael Kozak being the first to announce Tuesday, “Acting Senate Presidetn Anez has assumed responsibilities of Interim Constitutional President of Bolivia.” 

    Kozak added, “We look forward to working with her and Bolivia’s other civilian authorities as they arrange free and fair elections as soon as possible, in accordance with Bolivia’s constitution.” And on Wednesday Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also congratulated Añez as Evo supporters clashed in the streets with riot police. 

    Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted in RIA Novosti news agency as saying, “Russia will perceive Mrs. Añez as Bolivia’s leader, but only until the elections.”

    This despite Ryabkov expressing that Russia views the series of events which led to President Evo Morales’ ouster as tantamount to a state coup. He said Moscow “took into account that there was no quorum in the parliament at the time of her confirmation in this position.” 

    Interestingly, it appears Russia is taking a route of pragmatic acquiescence, perhaps given Evo is already in Mexico where he was provided political asylum, and Bolivia’s army is now firmly in support of Anez. In the case of socialist Venezuela, it must be remembered, where the US recognizes opposition leader Juan Guaido as ‘interim president’ and has led failed coup efforts, Russia has firmly stuck by President Nicolás Maduro.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Former president Morales was quick to respond from his place of asylum in Mexico that Añez is a “coup-mongering right-wing senator” and said his supporters’ attempts to access the Senate had been denied. Morales also called the series of events which led to his rapid ouster at the start of the week “the sneakiest, most nefarious coup in history.”

    Meanwhile security forces have vowed to take back the streets, deploying heavily in the administrative capital of La Paz, where throngs of angry Morales supporters squared off against police. The US embassy has evacuated all non-essential personnel according to reports, as pro-Evo socialist demonstrators have vowed to reject the “right-wing coup”.

    The White House had been quick to issue a statement on Morales’ ouster, describing it as a “significant moment for democracy in the Western Hemisphere”.

    On Thursday Añez took the further provocative move of declaring that Evo Morales would not be welcome in any new elections, which she would like to see held soon. Morales’ Movement for Socialism (MAS) party would be allowed to participate, but “They should start searching for a candidate,” she said, according to Reuters.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 20:45

  • Trump Impeachment Is Blueprint To Overthrow Government From Within
    Trump Impeachment Is Blueprint To Overthrow Government From Within

    Authored by Jenna Ellis Rives, op-ed via The Hill,

    The House began public hearings this week, furthering the partisan move by the Democrats to impeach President Trump in a blatant abuse of constitutional authority. Representative Adam Schiff said in a press conference, “These open hearings will be an opportunity for the American people to evaluate the witnesses for themselves and also to learn firsthand about the facts of the president’s misconduct.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    There are several problems with this statement.

    First, Schiff is already characterizing the outcome of the investigation. As the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, he serves as a key arbiter of the inquiry under the resolution. As such, he is in a position that demands an unbiased irreproachable ethic in evaluating requests for subpoenas and testimony. Any judge in a similar position would be required to recuse himself with even a hint of the pure bias Schiff has displayed, including coordination with the Ukraine whistleblower and other actions.

    The Democrats do not even pretend that their impeachment game is fair or actually about fact finding. This is simply about using a grant of power in the Constitution arbitrarily and politically, outside the bounds of due process and the purpose of that authority. Although the House does have the “sole power” of impeachment, that is a grant of jurisdiction, not a license to proceed on purely partisan motivation. Article One must work coordinately and not inconsistently with Article Two, which provides the legal basis upon which a sitting president may be impeached.

    Second, Schiff demonstrates this is all about media play in the court of public opinion. Voters have no power or responsibility in an impeachment proceeding. The drafters of the Constitution intended the impeachment and removal process to be exercised only when there was sufficient evidence that the subject of the impeachment had committed a legally qualifying offense. This is not about whether impeachment is popular in the polls or whether a majority of Americans prefer it. Transparency in the context of this quasi judicial process is to provide fundamental fairness and due process for the president. Why are the Democrats so hellbent on blatantly refusing to allow Republican subpoenas and witnesses?

    It is because it is a sham. Yet the Democrats are openly admitting that their goal is to try this in the media and attempt to dishonestly convince us that somehow we too should hate Donald Trump. They are hoping to convince us not to vote for him. That is not a legitimate or constitutional purpose of an impeachment. It is rather ironic that they claim his “crime” is an alleged quid pro quo to gain political advantage, while they are manipulating the power of impeachment for their political advantage. It is Schiff and other Democrats like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi who should be impeached. There is an actual constitutional basis for that.

    Third, Schiff is proving beyond doubt that this entire impeachment is merely a coordinated partisan attack against President Trump and, even more importantly, against the government of the United States. There was a bipartisan effort was against impeachment, with two Democrats and all Republicans in the House voting against the inquiry. The Democrats are abusing the power of impeachment and, if they are allowed to move forward, they are not only setting a terrible precedent that impeachment can be wielded as a political weapon that it was never intended to be, but also attacking the Constitution and undermining the rule of law.

    In the Federalist Papers, Alexander Hamilton explained the problem of political motivation with the power of impeachment. He wrote,

    “A well constituted court for the trial of impeachments, is an object not more to be desired than difficult to be obtained in a government wholly elective. The subjects of its jurisdiction are those offenses which proceed from the misconduct of public men, or in other words from the abuse or violation of some public trust. They are of a nature which may with peculiar propriety be denominated political, as they relate chiefly to injuries done immediately to the society itself. The prosecution of them, for this reason, will seldom fail to agitate the passions of the whole community, and to divide it into parties, more or less friendly or inimical, to the accused.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    He was right. Schiff and Pelosi are not interested in real demonstrations of innocence or guilt. Their only interest is staging a political coup against their adversaries. But this is even bigger than the president. This is an attempt to overthrow the federal government from the inside.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 20:25

    Tags

  • Stocks, Yuan Surge After Yet Another Kudlow Trade Headline Claiming "Deal Is Close"
    Stocks, Yuan Surge After Yet Another Kudlow Trade Headline Claiming “Deal Is Close”

    Algos have gone full retard…again.

    In an exact mirror of yesterday’s idiocy – by which a series of headlines raise doubts about the US-China trade deal, spark a rapid plunge in stocks which is instantly bid into the US cash market close and then ramped even higher as Japan opens on the back of “trade deal is close” comments from someone in the US administration – US equity futures and offshore yuan are spiking tonight…

    White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow tells reporters:

    “We are in communication with them every single day right now,” referring to U.S. talks with China trade negotiators over a phase one trade pact.

    “We are coming down to the short strokes,” Kudlow adds noting that a deal is “close…it’s not done yet.”

    And for the 51289932nd time, algos panic buy futures!!

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Dow futures are now over 200 points off the intraday lows – on nothing at all!

    Offshore Yuan is also following a similar pattern…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Source: Bloomberg

    For some context, The Dow is now over 1800 points higher since Trump said “phase one” of the deal was complete and Offshore Yuan is 15 handles stronger… oh yes and The Fed’s balance sheet is $280 billion bigger, which is of course all that matters…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Source: Bloomberg

    As one veteran trader exclaimed, “this is becoming f**king ridiculous.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Well, to be honest, it does!


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 20:01

  • Ukraine For Dummies (And Congressmen)
    Ukraine For Dummies (And Congressmen)

    Authored by Ray McGovern via ConsortiumNews.com,

    At Wednesday’s debut of the impeachment hearings there was one issue upon which both sides of the aisle seemed to agree, and it was a comic-book caricature of reality.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff led off the proceedings with this:

    “In 2014, Russia invaded a United States ally, Ukraine, to reverse that nation’s embrace of the West, and to fulfill Vladimir Putin’s desire to rebuild a Russian empire…”

    Five years ago, when Ukraine first came into the news, those Americans who thought Ukraine was an island in the Pacific can perhaps be forgiven. That members of the House Intelligence Committee don’t know — or pretend not to know — more accurate information about Ukraine is a scandal, and a consequential one.

    As Professor Stephen Cohen has warned, if the impeachment process does not deal in objective fact, already high tensions with Russia are likely to become even more dangerous.

    So here is a kind of primer for those who might be interested in some Ukraine history:

    • Late 1700s: Catherine the Great consolidated her rule; established Russia’s first and only warm-water naval base in Crimea.

    • In 1919, after the Bolshevik Revolution, Moscow defeated resistance in Ukraine and the country becomes one of 15 Republics of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR).

    • In 1954, after Stalin’s death the year before, Nikita Khrushchev, a Ukrainian, assumed power. Pandering to Ukrainian supporters, he unilaterally decreed that henceforth Crimea would be part of the Ukrainian SSR, not the Russian SSR. Since all 15 Republics of the USSR were under tight rule from Moscow, the switch was a distinction without much of a difference — until later, when the USSR fell apart..

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Khrushchev: Gave Ukraine away. (Wikipedia)

    • Nov. 1989: Berlin wall down.

    • Dec. 2-3, 1989: President George H. W. Bush invites Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to summit talks in Malta; reassures him “the U.S. will not take advantage” of Soviet troubles in Eastern Europe. Bush had already been pushing the idea of a Europe whole and free, from Portugal to Vladivostok.

    A Consequential Quid Pro Quo

    • Feb. 7-10, 1990: Secretary of State James Baker negotiates a quid pro quo; Soviet acceptance of the bitter pill of a reunited Germany (inside NATO), in return for an oral U.S. promise not to enlarge NATO “one inch more” to the East.

    • Dec. 1991: the USSR falls apart. Suddenly it does matter that Khrushchev gave Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR; Moscow and Kyiv work out long-term arrangements for the Soviet navy to use the naval base at Sevastopol.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    • The quid pro quo began to unravel in October 1996 during the last weeks of President Bill Clinton’s campaign when he said he would welcome Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic into NATO — the earlier promise to Moscow notwithstanding. Former U.S. Ambassador to the USSR Jack Matlock, who took part in both the Bush-Gorbachev early-December 1989 summit in Malta and the Baker-Gorbachev discussions in early February 1990, has said, “The language used was absolute, including no ‘taking advantage’ by the U.S. … I don’t see how anybody could view the subsequent expansion of NATO as anything but ‘taking advantage,’ particularly since, by then, Russia was hardly a credible threat.” (From 16 members in 1990, NATO has grown to 29 member states — the additional 13 all lie east of Germany.)

    • Feb. 1, 2008: Amid rumors of NATO planning to offer membership to Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warns U.S. Ambassador William Burns that “Nyet Means Nyet.” Russia will react strongly to any move to bring Ukraine or Georgia into NATO. Thanks to WikiLeaks, we have Burns’s original cable from embassy in Moscow.

    • April 3, 2008: Included in Final Declaration from NATO summit in Bucharest: “NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO.”

    • Early September 2013: Putin helps Obama resist neocon demands to do “shock and awe” on Syria; Russians persuade President Bashar al-Assad to give up Syrian army chemical weapons for destruction on a U.S. ship outfitted for chemical weapons destruction. Neocons are outraged over failing to mousetrap Obama into attacking Syria.

    Meanwhile in Ukraine

    • Dec. 2013: In a speech to the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation, Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Victoria Nuland says: “The United States has supported Ukraine’s European aspirations. … We have invested over $5 billion to assist Ukraine in these and other goals that will ensure a secure and prosperous and democratic Ukraine.”

    • Feb. 4, 2014: Amid rioting on the Maidan in Kiev, YouTube carries Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland’s last minute instructions to U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt regarding the U.S. pick for new Ukrainian prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk (aka “Yats”) and other plans for the imminent coup d’etat in Kiev.  (See: ) When Pyatt expresses concern about EU misgivings about mounting a coup, Nuland says “Fuck the EU.” She then apologizes to the EU a day or two later — for the profanity, not for the coup. She also says that Vice President Joe Biden will help “glue this thing together”, meaning the coup.

    • Feb. 22, 2014: Coup d’etat in Kyiv; appropriately labeled “the most blatant coup in history” by George Friedman, then President of the widely respected think-tank STRATFOR.

    • Feb. 23, 2014: The date that NATO, Western diplomats, and the corporate media have chosen – disingenuously – as the beginning of recent European history, with silence about the coup orchestrated in Kyiv the day before. President Vladimir Putin returns to Moscow from the winter olympics in Sochi; confers with advisers about Crimea, deciding — unlike Khrushchev in 1954 — to arrange a plebiscite to let the people of Crimea, most of whom strongly opposed the coup regime, decide their own future.

    • March 16, 2014: The official result from the voters in Crimea voted overwhelmingly for independence from Ukraine and to join Russia. Following the referendum, Crimea declared independence from Ukraine and asked to join the Russian Federation. On March 18, the Russian Federal Assembly ratified the incorporation of Crimea into Russia.

    • In the following days, Putin made it immediately (and publicly) clear that Yatsenyuk’s early statement about Ukraine joining NATO and – even more important – the U.S./NATO plans to deploy ABM systems around Russia’s western periphery and in the Black Sea, were the prime motivating forces behind the post-referendum re-incorporation of Crimea into Russia.

      <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

      Putin: Reacted to coup. (Russian government)

    • No one with rudimentary knowledge of Russian history should have been surprised that Moscow would take no chances of letting NATO grab Crimea and Russia’s only warm-water naval base. The Nuland neocons seized on the opportunity to accuse Russia of aggression and told obedient European governments to follow suit. Washington could not persuade its European allies to impose stringent sanctions on Russia, though, until the downing of Malaysian Airlines MH17 over Ukraine.

    Airplane Downed; 298 Killed

    • July 17, 2014: MH 17 shot down

    • July 20, 2014: Secretary of State John Kerry told NBC’s David Gregory, “We picked up the imagery of this launch. We know the trajectory. We know where it came from. We know the timing. And it was exactly at the time that this aircraft disappeared from the radar.” The U.S., however, has not shared any evidence of this.

    • Given the way U.S. intelligence collectors had been focused, laser-like, on that part of the Ukrainian-Russian border at that time, it is a near certainty that the U.S. has highly relevant intelligence regarding what actually happened and who was most likely responsible. If that intelligence supported the accusations made by Kerry, it would almost certainly have been publicized.

    • Less than two weeks after the shoot-down, the Europeans were persuaded to impose sanctions that hurt their own businesses and economies about as much as they hurt Russia’s – and far more than they hurt the U.S. There is no sign that, in succumbing to U.S. pressure, the Europeans mustered the courage to ask for a peek at the “intelligence” Kerry bragged about on NBC TV.

    • Oct. 27, 2016: Putin speaks at the Valdai International Discussion Club.

    How did the “growing trust” that Russian President Putin wrote about in his September 11, 2013 New York Times op-ed evaporate?

    How did what Putin called his close “working and personal relationship with President Obama” change into today’s deep distrust and saber-rattling? A short three years later after the close collaboration to resolve the Syrian problem peacefully, Putin spoke of the “feverish” state of international relations and lamented: “My personal agreements with the President of the United States have not produced results.” And things have gone downhill from there.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 19:45

  • South Korea Slaughters 380,000 Pigs After China's Pig Ebola Crosses Border 
    South Korea Slaughters 380,000 Pigs After China’s Pig Ebola Crosses Border 

    Cross-border transmissions of African swine fever is becoming a significant issue across Asia.

    Just last week, we warned about China exporting the hog-killing disease to Russia. Now it appears North Korea, a country that borders China, has already exported the virus to South Korea. 

    South Korean authorities have been scrambling to contain the outbreak since mid-September.  

    A new report from Reuters, indicates 380,000 pigs have been slaughtered since the end of September, in the northern region bordering North Korea.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Already, the government has led a significant effort to slaughter nearly 3% of the country’s pig herd to prevent further spread. The first swine-fever case emerged in mid-September. 

    Woo Hee-jong, a veterinary professor at Seoul National University, said government authorities aggressively killed pigs in the northern region to prevent the spread to large pig farms in the southern part of the country.

    As of October 10, swine fever cases were zero, and the attempt to prevent a further outbreak might have worked but has come at the cost of 380,000 pigs. 

    So far, there are no reports of wild boar infected with the disease, but if that were the case, then the spread across the country would become unstoppable. 

    The epicenter of the hog-killing disease started in China, where authorities have killed at least 50% of its pig herd this year. 

    The cross-border spread of African swine fever from China to Russia; China to North Korea; and now North Korea to South Korea suggests the virus is becoming uncontrollable for governments. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The spread of the virus across China has already led to skyrocketing food prices for pork, and rapid food inflation is likely to be seen in neighboring countries. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Meanwhile, the US is sitting on record cold storage of pork bellies, something that China, Russia, North/South Korea might be interested in… 


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 19:25

  • Billionaires Savage Elizabeth Warren Over Virtue Smoke-Signaling Campaign Ad
    Billionaires Savage Elizabeth Warren Over Virtue Smoke-Signaling Campaign Ad

    Elizabeth Warren was sorely mistaken if she thought she could get away with attacking prominent billionaires without repercussions, she was sorely mistaken.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    After flipping out on Warren Wednesday night for not knowing “who the f**k she’s tweeting,” billionaire investor Leon Cooperman told CNBC’s ‘Halftime Report’ on Thursday that Warren’s proposed wealth tax “makes no sense,” adding “It would lead to unnatural acts, be near impossible to police, and is probably unconstitutionalit will make the wealthy flock to gold in order to hide their wealth, like you wouldn’t believe.”

    “In my opinion, she represents the worst in politicians as she’s trying to demonize wealthy people because there are more poor people (than) wealthy people,” said Cooperman, adding “if this lady wins, we’re in big trouble.

    Of course, Warren is playing to her (young) base, and when asked why do so many Millennials seem to prefer socialism to capitalism? Cooperman exclaimed that “they’re exposed to all this crap by left-leaning university professors.”

    Then Cooperman dared to ask: “How can a college professor and politician gain an $18mm net worth?” he also asked.

    Cooperman was joined in his criticism by Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein, who was also featured in the Massachusetts Senator’s ad.

    “Surprised to be featured in Sen Warren’s campaign ad, given the many severe critics she has out there,” Blankfein tweeted on Thursday. “Not my candidate, but we align on many issues. Vilification of people as a member of a group may be good for her campaign, not the country. Maybe tribalism is just in her DNA.”

    Warren’s proposal would levy a 2% tax on household net worth over $50 million and a 6% tax on those with over $1 billion.

    Cooperman says he will support fellow billionaire Mike Bloomberg if he formally enters the 2020 race and maintains moderate policy positions, according to CNBC.

    The son of a Bronx plumber who became one of Wall Street’s most successful investors, Copperman started the Omega Advisors hedge fund in 1991. Last year, he returned outside investor money and converted Omega into a family office. His net-worth is estimated at more than $3 billion. Prior to starting Omega, he spent 25 years at Goldman Sachs.

    Cooperman has also been a major philanthropist. He has signed The Giving Pledge, created by Bill Gates and his wife Melinda Gates and Warren Buffett. The Giving Pledge invites the ultra-wealthy to give away more than half of their fortunes to help society. –CNBC

    Watch Warren’s ad below:


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 19:11

  • Hearsay, Your Honor!
    Hearsay, Your Honor!

    Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

    Watching Day 1 yesterday of the impeachment inquiry that isn’t one, I was thinking about an old children’s game, which is just as useful for adults, in which, in a wide circle of persons, no. 1 tells no. 2 a story, no. 2 tells no. 3, and so forth. If the total numbers of persons in the circle is large enough, it’s certain that the story, if it has enough details, will have changed unrecognizably by, say, no. 20.

    That little game is a nice illustration of why you’ve all heard the words “Hearsay, Your Honor” spoken by some lawyer or another in 1000+ movies and TV series. And hearsay was all there was yesterday from “witnesses” Bill Taylor and George Kent. They are both “witnesses” who didn’t witness anything related to the hearing in course and neither ever met or spoke to President Trump, but both claim to know exactly what he was thinking, why he did what he did, and said what he said, based on things they heard from third parties, quite a few of whom remain anonymous.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Little of what they said would therefore be ruled admissible in a court of law. But the House inquiry is not a court of law. It can probably best be compared to a grand jury, a very one-sided format designed to let a prosecutor find and present enough evidence to let a case go to court. If Taylor and Kent had been in a court room, you would have heard “Hearsay, Your Honor” about once in every ten seconds. That gets old fast.

    So why do we have this circus going on when it is obvious that round 2 (or 3, if you think the basement hearings were round 1), the Senate trial which must follow if the Dems decide to impeach Trump, has to acquit him because the House based its entire case on hearsay? I don’t know, but perhaps we see some of it in Democrat Rep. Mike Quigley (IL)’s statement: “Hearsay can be much better evidence than direct … and it’s certainly valid in this instance”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Note that Quigley in that little video got shut down very rapidly in his enthusiasm for using hearsay by someone (I can’t see who) saying none of the exceptions he seemed to refer to applied to “this testimony”. And that’s the crux here: courts may have in the past, after much deliberation, allowed hearsay in specific cases, but Quigley tries to make it look as if that is now some general rule, and that is certainly not true.

    Before I forget, something that struck me at the start yesterday was how both Adam Schiff and Bill Taylor in their openings emphasized their focus on Russia, while this case is not about that, but about Ukraine. And Russia Russia Russia has been shot down along with Robert Muller in his memorably awful “defense” of his failed report a few months ago.

    Schiff’s opening words:

    In 2014, Russia invaded a United States ally, Ukraine, to reverse that nation’s embrace of the West, and to fulfill Vladimir Putin’s desire to rebuild a Russian empire. In the following years, thirteen thousand Ukrainians died as they battled superior Russian forces.

    There is so much wrong and debatable and leading and what not in just those few words, I don’t even know where to start. I guess perhaps I should be shouting out “Hearsay, Your Honor” at the top of my lungs. Then there’s Taylor:

    After his opening statement, Taylor answers questions. He tells committee members: “If we withdraw or suspend or threaten to withdraw our security assistance” to Ukraine, it sends a “message to Ukrainians, but its just as important to the Russians who are looking for any sign of weakness”. “That affects us” he adds. It affects the world that we live in; that our children and grandchildren will grow up in,” he adds, appearing to become emotional. “Ukraine is on the front line of that conflict,” he concludes.

    These statements are important because they tell us that Schiff and Taylor both see the world through the same glasses. The Russians are looking for signs of US weakness that they can use to advance their grand plan to (re) build a grand empire. That comes with the idea that the US didn’t cause the mayhem in Ukraine in 2014 with their coup, no, it was Russia which reacted so it wouldn’t lose its only warm water port.

    Back to the hearing.

    Taylor said it was his “clear understanding” that President Trump withheld military aid to Ukraine until the Bidens and other matters were investigated. At the very least there is no proof of that. It’s much more likely from what we know today that Ukraine didn’t know Trump withheld the aid until after the July 25 phone call this whole thing rests on. It was suggested yesterday that they didn’t know until the end of August, but I’ve seen people claim that they knew a few weeks earlier. But Zelensky didn’t know on July 25, that we can agree on.

    And anyway, this is merely Taylor’s opinion. Based on hearsay. Based on what some guy told him some other guy told him etc etc. And though Taylor never met Trump, the very idea of withholding aid to one of the most corrupt nations on the planet scares the heebees out of him because Russia Russia Russia.

    Taylor is a career diplomat who has bought hook line and sinker into established US policy in the region, and who will defend it until his dying breath. And if that means going against the president of the country he allegedly serves, who has every right to rebalance that policy, Taylor will do it. That is what he was saying.

    Taylor came close to matching Mueller’s uber-bumbling performance the other day, though he didn’t quite get there. Kent was not quite that bad, but he’s in the same camp, the same career field, and the same deep state, FBI-CIA controlled policy-making no matter who gets elected president. And looking at Bill Taylor, how can one not question the wisdom of people like him making decisions on matters such as that?

    Republican counsel Steve Castor started off strong, at least from what I saw, but seemed to fizzle out a little because he became lost in his own one question every five seconds model.

    Perhaps it was the format, maximum time limits etc., which you don’t have in a courtroom. Jim Jordan did well, he just got named to the committee, but he could have been more effective as well. Still, this part was strong:

    Jordan: You didn’t listen in on President Trump & Zelensky’s call?

    Taylor: I did not.

    Jordan: You’ve never talked with Chief of Staff Mulvaney?

    Taylor: I never did.

    Jordan: You’ve never met the President?

    Taylor: That’s correct.

    Jordan: And you’re their star witness.

    All in all, if you thought yesterday was a good day for the Democrats, for the inquiry, or for Adam Schiff, you really need to check a few fundamental issues. All Schiff managed to bring to the table was hearsay. And it’s only because of the grand jury-like format that he even gets to start day 2. No judge would have let him. But there is no judge, and there is no jury. There’s only an executioner.

    PS I found this thing from the BBC intriguing and illustrative:

    Bill Taylor, the acting US ambassador to Ukraine, said a member of his staff was told Mr Trump was preoccupied with pushing for a probe into Mr Biden. He was speaking at the first public hearings in the impeachment inquiry.

    [..] During a detailed opening statement, Mr Taylor said a member of his staff had overheard a telephone call in which the president inquired about “the investigations” into Mr Biden. The call was with Gordon Sondland, the US ambassador to the European Union, who reportedly told the president over the phone from a restaurant in Kyiv that “the Ukrainians were ready to move forward”. After the call, the staff member “asked ambassador Sondland what President Trump thought about Ukraine”, Mr Taylor said. Mr Taylor said: “Ambassador Sondland responded that President Trump cares more about the investigations of Biden.”

    First, it argues that a member of Taylor’s staff was told something by a third party, but later it changes to him/her hearing the president “live”. Albeit through an allegedly private phone call in which Trump may have sounded a bit loud. You want to impeach your president on the basis of a maybe overheard phone call that someone told you someone told someone else about?

    By the way, that phone call allegedly was between Trump and Gordon Sondland, hotelier cum US ambassador to the EU, the same person who testified in the famous Schiff basement and whose laywer at some point contested Taylor’s statements about what Sondland told him, after which the latter went back to the basement to change his testimony. He said she said but then he said and then she said and so on.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    What’s on the schedule for the circus tomorrow, is it the clowns or the elephants? I may take a day off. We have weeks more of this. And already I have no idea left of who told whom what.

    *  *  *

    Please support the Automatic Earth on Paypal and Patreon so we can continue to publish.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 19:05

  • SolarCity Lawsuit Reveals Almost All Of Elon Musk's Merger Promises Were "Misleading Or False"
    SolarCity Lawsuit Reveals Almost All Of Elon Musk’s Merger Promises Were “Misleading Or False”

    As we dive further into the depositions and discovery documents from the ongoing SolarCity lawsuit, it becomes clearer and clearer that the transaction was simply a bailout of Elon Musk’s cousin and SolarCity shareholders, and that much of the hype surrounding the idea in the first place was drummed up solely to create enthusiasm for the deal.  

    And now, even the media is starting to notice, with Bloomberg’s Dana Hull saying that the thousands of pages of documents released via the lawsuit “show that the CEO’s promises about SolarCity were misleading or false.”

    “The move was called a catastrophe for Tesla, a $2 billion-plus bailout of a debt-saddled company of which Musk himself was chairman and the largest shareholder,” Hull reminds us. 

    The merger was pitched a different way to Tesla shareholders. Elon Musk called it “blindingly obvious” and a “no brainer” at the time.

    But it seems even Musk has come to terms with what he has done, though. In a deposition, Musk reversed his course on the acquisition, stating: “At the time I thought it made strategic sense for Tesla and SolarCity to combine. Hindsight is 20-20. If I could wind back the clock, you know, I would say [I] probably would have let SolarCity execute by itself.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    And the shareholders that approved the deal to begin with really only had Musk’s word to go on. Musk told shareholders that the idea of combining the two companies was always part of his master plan and that it would create the world’s first vertically integrated clean energy company. The idea was that Tesla driving consumers would go home to their solar paneled homes to charge their vehicles.

    And if you don’t support that utopian image, you must hate the environment. 

    The SolarCity deal was consummated about 3 years ago this month and now, looking back, it’s easy to see that “almost every significant promise Musk pitched publicly [was] either misleading or false.”

    The situation behind the scenes for SolarCity was called “dire” and Hull says that “the documents in the lawsuit offer an unprecedented look at what happens when Musk’s reality-distortion field comes up against the reality of testifying under oath.”

    Musk said publicly that SolarCity was on solid financial footing, but then behind the scenes was saying that it needed to solve its “liquidity crisis”. SolarCity was, of course, burning cash and in danger of defaulting on its debt.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Tesla’s board – and Evercore, who the company hired to evaluate the deal – both thought it wasn’t a good idea. But Evercore, like everyone else involved in the public markets, gave way to Elon Musk’s decision making. “It’s Elon’s world. We just live in it,” an Evercore banker wrote in one email. 

    Even Tesla’s CFO spoke out against the idea: “We have Model 3 happening. We have a lot of things going on. We ourselves have a large debt load. Why do we need to do this now, Elon?”

    On top of that was the obvious conflicts of interest:

    Besides his cousins Lyndon and Peter Rive running SolarCity, its board and Tesla’s had complicated overlaps. Six of Tesla’s seven directors were Musk associates (including his brother, Kimbal) with SolarCity ties. Antonio Gracias was on the board of both companies. What’s more, Musk had used his other entities to raise capital for SolarCity: SpaceX, for example, had purchased $255 million of SolarCity bonds. Musk bought $65 million worth. Tesla’s directors had to grapple with this apparent self-dealing as Musk pushed them to reconsider the acquisition in May 2016. Musk said he recused himself from these deliberations, but court filings indicate he remained actively involved, even advocating for the move directly with bankers and investors.

    But this didn’t stop Musk from coming up with the idea of the Solar Roof (debunked by one solar expert in a podcast here and here) to try and win over shareholders. Musk showed off the product in 2016 to an impressed audience but it was later revealed the demos weren’t functional. Regardless, the acquisition received approval several weeks later. 

    The roof was supposed to be central to the merger, but Tesla has still failed to develop a mass market version of the product and high volume manufacturing has been delayed several times over the last few years. Tesla and SolarCity Director Antonio Gracias said there were only “50 to 100 of these things operating today in tests on people’s roofs.”

    Meanwhile, last year, the company’s head of energy, Sanjay Shah, said he had “high confidence” they were on track to ramp up solar roof production in 2019. He said if more delays came up, “we will be more transparent than ever before to make sure you guys hear from us why.”

    We can’t wait for that explanation. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Musk claimed in his deposition that Shah was actually focused on Model 3 development during his time at Tesla. 

    Tesla executives also knew that the SolarCity acquisition would be risky. In a 2017 memo, Tesla’s top brass exchanged talking points in a memo, saying the acquisition “wasn’t a bailout” and that “family-run businesses can lead to long-term success”.

    “The collaboration has been great,” the memo says, stating that development was “going extremely well”. 

    But SolarCity was falling apart behind the scenes. In Q4 2017, solar deployments fell by 56% YOY and Tesla had gutted the company’s sales team. The Rive brothers left the company after the merger and Musk admitted that despite “synergies”, he had redeployed much of the SolarCity staff to work on the Model 3 launch. 

    “We’re turning our attention to solar, and we’re going to fix it,” Musk said in a deposition, when asked.

    When the plaintiff’s lawyer asked for more details, Musk called him “shameful” and a “very, very bad person”. 

    Musk seems ready to go to trial. “I can’t wait. It will be great. You’re going to lose,” he told the plaintiff’s counsel.

    We can only hope this trial is nationally televised. 


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 18:45

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 14th November 2019

  • The Blob: Still Chasing After Pax Americana
    The Blob: Still Chasing After Pax Americana

    Authored by Andrew Bacevich via TheAmericanConservative.com,

    After all the failure, they still look at our wars in the Middle East as some kind of golden age…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    I wish to call attention to an instructive essay about U.S. policy in the Middle East—instructive in the sense that it reveals the utterly impoverished nature of establishment thinking on this subject.

    The title of the essay is “The US Has One Last Chance to Halt Its Withdrawal from the Middle East.” The author is a former deputy assistant secretary of defense, who shall remain nameless since I bear him no ill will. Let us refer to him simply as X, in honor of George Kennan, author of a famous 1947 essay offering counsel on how to deal with the Soviet Union. Kennan published that essay under the pseudonym X. And so shall I refer to the author of “One Last Chance.”

    Kennan’s purpose was to sound the alarm regarding the Soviet threat and to propose what came to be called the strategy of Containment. The purpose of our present-day Mr. X is to sound the alarm about the United States lowering its profile in the Middle East.

    To avert that prospect, he proposes what can only be termed a strategy of staying-the-course-while-ignoring-the-facts.

    X concedes that throughout the region, things have not gone especially well for the United States over the last couple of decades. He rightly notes that Americans are “still reeling from costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the continuing chaos in Syria, Yemen, and Libya.” He ever so briefly acknowledges that this is “a region where even pro-American governments are often undemocratic and can be disdainful of fundamental human rights” and “where billions of dollars are spent that would be better used at home.”

    Of course, to say that the U.S. has expended billions in the Middle East is the equivalent of saying that my wife and I paid thousands for the home we purchased last year. While nominally correct, the statement is wildly misleading. X has an aversion to actual numbers. He prefers tidy generalizations to specifics.

    Yet the essence of X’s argument boils down to this: setting aside these recent errors of judgment by George W. Bush and Barack Obama, U.S. policy in the region has actually been a smashing success. From the end of World War II until ever-so-recently, Washington pursued a course in the Middle East that was reasoned, careful, and eminently wise. “This bipartisan tradition of American leadership worked,” X asserts. While it might have been “imperfect, time-consuming and often unsatisfying,” the nation’s “vital interests in the region remained protected. The U.S. presence was sized to align with those interests, and we were not overextended.” X approvingly calls this a Pax Americana in the Middle East.

    When one encounters a claim of an American-constructed Pax, the first rule is to look for what the writer leaves out. In this case, among the incidents and developments that our X totally ignores are these: treating Saudi Arabia as a de facto protectorate; CIA involvement in the 1953 overthrow of the Mossadegh regime; the pro-Israel tilt in U.S. policy dating from the 1960s, to include turning a blind eye to Israel acquiring a nuclear arsenal; the Iranian Revolution; various Arab-Israeli wars; oil “shocks” during the 1970s; the Beirut debacle of 1983; the U.S. role in destabilizing (and then abandoning) Afghanistan; Washington’s support for Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq War; the rise of al-Qaeda; and the events of 9/11.

    Admit these into the conversation and the question you confront is this one: what Pax? In truth, Pax Americana no more describes the postwar Middle East than the phrase “Long Peace” describes the Cold War. The purpose of such formulations is to preclude actual thinking, attaching labels to preempt analysis.

    “It took many decades to build a Pax Americana in the Middle East,” X writes.

    Not true: it took only a handful of hours—the time he invested in writing his essay. The Pax Americana is a figment of X’s imagination.

    Yet once having conjured up his fictive Pax, X easily convinces himself that it can exist again, if only the next president—he writes off Trump as a total loss—will act to “reestablish American leadership in the Middle East, restore deterrence with our adversaries, and begin renewing trust with our partners and allies.” But what does “leadership” actually mean in this context? What will it entail? What will it cost? Once again, when it comes to specifics, X is essentially silent, offering only this: 

    “The next commander in chief will require political fortitude to lead the United States back to its traditional role in the region, demonstrating what in previous generations was deemed a profile in courage.”

    That and four bucks will get you a latte.

    All of that said, I submit that X has written something worthy of reflection. Here on full display is a model of establishment thinking—heavy on clichés, light on substance, and short of memory.

    Let me briefly sketch out an alternative narrative that more accurately captures our present predicament.

    Since the end of World War II, successive administrations have sought to devise a formula for assuring American consumers access to Persian Gulf oil while also satisfying pressing domestic political interests. Over a period of decades, that effort succeeded chiefly in giving birth to new problems. Out of these multiplying difficulties came the 9/11 attacks and their immediate sequel, a “war on terrorism” meant to settle matters once and for all.

    To state the matter bluntly, 9/11 was an expression of chickens coming home to roost, a massive strategic failure that the ensuing military campaigns beginning in 2001 and continuing to the present moment have affirmed. Given the dimensions of that failure, the likelihood of resuscitating X’s illusory Pax is essentially zero.

    There is no going back to an imagined Golden Age of American statecraft in the Middle East. The imperative is to go forward, which requires acknowledging how wrongheaded U.S. policy in region has been ever since FDR had his famous tete-a-tete with King Ibn Saud and Harry Truman rushed to recognize the newborn State of Israel.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/14/2019 – 00:10

    Tags

  • These Are The States Best (And Worst) Prepared For Another Recession
    These Are The States Best (And Worst) Prepared For Another Recession

    When the US economy finally starts to cool, and the inevitable recession arrives, the slowdown will affect different states differently. Some states, like Texas, are well-positioned to ride out the downturn thanks to the diversity of industry and low per-capita debt. Others, like Hawaii, will likely bear the brunt of the downturn, a “disaster” that we have discussed in the past.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Inspired by surveys claiming that a majority of executives at Fortune 500 companies expect a recession in 2020, Fit Small Business recently conducted a study to determine which states are best-equipped to survive the next recession, and which states are particularly vulnerable to a downturn. To arrive at their conclusions, the researchers factored in a wealth of data about states’ economies, including their product exports, housing costs, economic strength and diversity, individual debt-to-income ratios and median home values.

    Using these data, they concluded that nearly all of the best states for surviving the recession are spread across the south and midwest. Why? Because these states benefit from diverse economies, and their low cost of living and low property prices make them more liveable.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

     

    Meanwhile, all the way down at the end of the list, we find Hawaii, the 48th most well-equipped state to survive the next recession.

    Why is Hawaii so vulnerable? Well, for one, the state must import nearly all of its fuel, food and consumer staples, which drives up prices.

    But that’s not the only reason. Another recent study warned that the slowdown in Hawaii’s economy started around the time when JPM’s Global Manufacturing PMI topped out in late 2017.

    And that slowdown is getting more serious, as Hawaii’s tourism-dependent economy struggles with a slump in bookings, and by extension, a slump in tourist spending. The culprit is clear: the strong dollar has hurt tourism from abroad, while anxieties about a slowing economy have caused domestic spending to contract slightly.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    And researchers with the state have forecast an increase in Hawaii’s unemployment rate over the coming years, expecting it to climb from its current level (2.8%) to 3.9% in 2022.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

     

    For Hawaii, the downturn has already begun.

    Read Fit Small Business’s full report here.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 23:50

  • The Manchurian Candidate Theory Will Never Die
    The Manchurian Candidate Theory Will Never Die

    Authored by David Harsanyi via NationalReview.com,

    …but now it’s much more than a kooky conspiracy shouted from the margins. It’s headline news.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    One of the most durable conspiracy theories of our times finds Vladimir Putin recruiting a billionaire media personality named Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency. In some iterations of the tale, Trump is willingly serving his Kremlin comrades; in others, he is merely the victim of kompromat. In every version he is an asset.

    The basic account holds that Putin, who is apparently blessed with seer-like abilities, knew in the late 1970s that Trump, whose political positions would wildly fluctuate over 40 years, was presidential material, and that now, after decades of patiently waiting, the duo’s nefarious plan to cut taxes and place originalists onto the federal bench has finally come to fruition.

    In a sprawling July 2018 New York piece headlined, “Will Trump Be Meeting with His Counterpart — Or His Handler? A plausible theory of mind-boggling collusion,” Jonathan Chait offered a fully realized rendering of Trump’s potential sedition. Cobbling together every interaction the real-estate developer ever had with Russians — helpfully laid out in a handy Pepe Silvia–like flow chart — Chait posits that Trump might have become a Kremlin asset in 1987 when visited Moscow.

    Chait was just asking questions. And I have no doubt the story seems highly “plausible” to partisans who suddenly treat every Russian-bought social-media ad as the next Pearl Harbor.

    Which brings me to John Harwood, the DNC’s man in Washington. Piggybacking on a recent tweet by the New York Times’ Michelle Goldberg, Harwood brings up Chait’s piece, arguing that that while “conservative media dismissed as ridiculous the idea that Russia might have cultivated Trump for decades, Fiona Hill, a leading US govt Russia expert, now makes clear it’s not ridiculous in the slightest.”

    Here’s Harwood on Twitter:

    Typing this out for those who’ve called it implausible

    Q: why do you believe Putin was targeting Trump from his days as a businessman?

    HILL: Because that’s exactly what Putin and others were doing. Again, he was part of a directorate in the KGB in Leningrad. That’s what they did exclusively, was targeting businessmen.

    The quote Harwood highlights from Hill’s October 14 testimony specifically points to Putin’s role in exclusively “targeting” American businessmen in the late 1970s, not “for decades.” In an adjacent quote, in fact, Hill argues that everyone was targeted by Russians for decades — not that Trump was “cultivated,” as Harwood asserts — and that it was a mistake to focus only on meddling in relation to the president rather than on meddling in a broader perspective.

    Here is Hill:

    I firmly believe he was also targeting President Trump, and he was targeting all of the other campaigns as well. And I think that that was the mistake when the 2015 investigations were launched, not to take it from the point of view [of] what Russia was doing to target Americans, no matter who they were in the system.”

    And again:

    I think that there’s a good chance that was the case and that, you know — and, again, compromising material was being collected on a whole range of individuals. And it was most definitely being collected on Secretary, former First Lady and Senator Clinton as well.

    And still again:

    So, if Secretary Clinton had won, there would have been a cloud over her at this time if she was President Clinton. There’s been a cloud over President Trump since the beginning of his presidency, and I think that’s exactly what the Russians intended.

    The context of her statements are a far cry from “Russia might have cultivated Trump for decades.” Of course, no one can dispute that Russians have been digging up dirt on prominent Americans citizens forever, but the word “cultivate” or “handler” — or any other term that intimates that the president is working for Russians — does not appear, even hypothetically, in any form in the transcript of Hill’s testimony.

    Also, does anyone really believe that Harwood types in the media would be grappling with the “cloud” that Fiona Hill, “a leading US govt Russia expert,” now makes clear would be hovering over Hillary Clinton’s head as well, if she had won?

    Even if Harwood had accurately conveyed Hill’s claims, we’ve now had three years of intense journalistic effort, wide-ranging congressional investigations, and an independent inquiry that have been unable to turn up a single instance in which Trump was compromised or colluded with Russians.

    Anyone paying attention during the 2016 campaign was already well acquainted with the president’s views on Russia: Trump isn’t going to bash Putin because Trump respects Putin, and he strives to build friendly relations with Russia.

    I’m sorry to say, Trump’s policies towards Putin differ very little from those of his predecessors. Perhaps no better, they are certainly no worse.

    As many others have noted, it was Obama who mocked Romney’s claim that Russia was our most dangerous geopolitical foe.

    It was also Obama who told Putin’s stooge Dmitry Medvedev that his administration would have more “flexibility” on missile defense after the 2012 election.

    It was Obama who refused to offer lethal military assistance to Ukraine.

    It was Obama who canceled the sale of American missile-defense systems to Poland and the Czech Republic to appease Russia.

    It was the Obama administration, according to Bill Browder, one of the driving forces behind the Magnitsky Act, who spent two years trying to kill the Act before acquiescing to bipartisan pressure.

    It was Obama, not Trump, who capitulated to Russia and gave in on accession to the World Trade Organization.

    It was Joe Biden, not Mike Pence, who in 2009 told Medvedev that “the most important item on our agenda” was to restore Russia–U.S. relations after eight years of the Bush administration’s antagonism.

    It was also Obama who abandoned the Syrian “red line,” leaving Russia’s allies to massacre thousands of civilians in a broader effort to appease the Iranians. Just because the 44th president habitually aligned the United States with the Islamic regime in Iran doesn’t mean he was a foreign Muslim interloper.

    The Manchurian Candidate conspiracy theory is much like birtherism. Too many conservatives rationalized their anger over politics by convincing themselves that Obama wasn’t only a dangerous ideological adversary but a seditious and illegitimate one as well. (One of the people rightly pilloried for doing this was Donald Trump.) The only difference is that Democrats have mainstreamed this kind of destructive paranoia.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 23:30

    Tags

  • Substance Abuse Touches Around Half Of All American Families
    Substance Abuse Touches Around Half Of All American Families

    According to Gallup, the effects of substance abuse are felt by around half of all American families, with, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes, only slight differences were recorded by the survey regarding race or sex.

    46 percent of U.S. adults reported having dealt with substance abuse in their families. 18 percent said those were related just to alcohol, while 10 percent said their problems were related just to drugs. Another 18 percent said they had dealt with both.

    Infographic: Substance Abuse Touches Around Half of All U.S. Families | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Women were slightly more likely to report substance abuse being a problem in their families. The difference between non-Hispanic whites and nonwhites reporting problems with substance abuse were two percentage points for alcohol and just one percentage point for drugs.

    That widened to 6 and 9 percent, respectively, between people reporting weekly church attendance and people seldom or never attending church service. Whether respondents held a college degree or not actually had a similar impact – people who did not go to or finish college were 7 percent more likely to report alcohol abuse and 4 percent more likely to report drug abuse in their families.

    The highest discrepancies were actually recorded in terms of region. Easterners were 9 percent less likely to report alcohol abuse than Westerners, while Midwesterners were 10 percent less likely to report drug abuse than people in the West.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 23:10

  • Lacalle: Why A "Crypto-Yuan" Won't Threaten The Dollar
    Lacalle: Why A “Crypto-Yuan” Won’t Threaten The Dollar

    Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

    A state-owned cryptocurrency is, in itself, a contradiction in terms. The main reason why citizens want to use cryptocurrencies or gold is precisely to avoid the government or central bank monopoly of money.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    For a currency to be a world reserve of value, widespread means of exchange and unit of measure, there are many things that need to happen, but the first pillar of a world reserve currency is stability and transparency.

    China cannot disrupt the global monetary system and dethrone the US dollar when it has one of the world’s tightest capital control systems, a lack of separation of powers and weak transparency in its own financial system.

    The U.S. dollar is the most traded currency in the world, and growing according to the Bank of International Settlement. The Yuan is 4% of the currency trade. This is because the financial balance of the US is the strongest, legal and investor security is one of the strongest in the world, and the currency and capital markets are open and transparent.

    Unfortunately for China, the idea of a gold-backed cryptocurrency starts from the wrong premise. China’s own currency, the Yuan, is not backed by either global use nor gold. At all. China’s total gold reserves are less than 0.25% of its money supply. Many say that we do not know the real extent of China’s gold reserves. However, this goes back to my previous point. What confidence is the world going to have on a currency where the real level of gold reserves is simply a guess? Furthermore, why would any serious government under-report its gold reserves if it wants to be a safe haven, reserve status currency? It makes no sense.

    The Yuan is as unsupported as any fiat currency, like the U.S. dollar, but much less traded and used as a store of value. As such, a cryptocurrency would not be backed by gold either. Even if the government said it was, and deployed all its reserves to the cryptocurrency, what confidence does the investor have that such backing will be guaranteed when the evidence is that even Chinese citizens have enormous limits to access their own savings in gold?

    China’s gold reserves are an insignificant fraction of its money supply. Its biggest weakness comes from capital controls, lack of open and independent institutions safeguarding investors and constant intervention in its financial market.

    China’s Yuan may become a world reserve currency one day. It will never happen while capital controls remain and legal-investor security is limited.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 22:50

  • Hong Kong's "Gravity Defying" Property Market Can't Stay Afloat Forever
    Hong Kong’s “Gravity Defying” Property Market Can’t Stay Afloat Forever

    Despite its initial resilience to an increasingly aggressive protest movement, Hong Kong’s housing market – previously one of the most unaffordable residential markets in the world – has started to weaken.

    But in a story published on Tuesday, WSJ compared the HK housing market to the cartoon villian Wile E. Coyote. While pursuing the Road Runner, sometimes the coyote finds himself running on air, a realization that typically precipitates a steep fall.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    If the protests don’t end soon, Hong Kong’s “gravity defying” real-estate market could experience something similar; both residential and commercial markets could be on the cusp of a seriously brutal contraction.

    According to recent data, Hong Kong’s economy is in serious trouble. For the first time in a decade, the Special Administrative Region is in a recession. Business activity declined at the fastest pace in at least two decades in October.

    But while the Hong Kong economy recorded its worst performance to date last month, in the real-estate market, transactions – i.e. home sales – actually rose in October (though we’d wager that most of this is simply speculators and investors hoping to take advantage of a slight dip in prices).

    Still, HK remains one of – if not the most – unaffordable housing markets.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Commercial real-estate has taken a bigger hit. In October, local property agency Midland IC&I recorded only 242 registrations of commercial and industrial businesses, the second-lowest figure since 1996.

    Savills, another real-estate agency, found that rents for stores in prime shopping centers around Hong Kong have fallen by more than 15% in the year to September.

    HK home prices have more than doubled over the past ten years, and after all of this growth, a dip in property prices might help alleviate some of the economic inequality plaguing Hong Kong.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The only problem is that the banks who are on the hook for these mortgages might risk getting saddled with heavy losses. Since few buildings in the commercial real-estate market are owner occupied, falling commercial rents risk the most immediate harm to banks balance sheets. And there’s one bank that is the most exposed to Hong Kong, it’s UK-based HSBC.

    Though residential could do some harm as well.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 22:30

  • All It Takes Is A Slipup Or A Nudge
    All It Takes Is A Slipup Or A Nudge

    Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

    Just prior to a war, the majority of people in the nations that are about to become involved tend to assume that another nation is threatening theirs, whist their own leaders are doing all they can to avoid conflict. This is almost never the case.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The “etiquette” of starting wars is for leaders to claim to their people that the last thing they want is war, but the enemy is goading them into armed conflict and, at some point, retaliation becomes “unavoidable.”

    The reason for this etiquette is that, almost invariably, the people of a nation have no desire to go to war.

    But if that’s the case, why is world history filled with warfare taking place on a regular basis?

    Well, truth be told, there are two groups of people who tend to relish war – the military and the political leaders.

    I’ve often quoted Randolph Bourne as saying, “War is the health of the state.” He was quite correct. The larger the nation, the greater the need political leaders have for warfare. After all, there’s no situation in which a people feel more greatly that they need their leaders to take charge, than in a time of war.

    Political leaders, after all, thrive on taxation and the oppression of basic rights. And they can get away with taxing a people more heavily during a war. They can also remove basic freedoms “temporarily” in order to keep the people “safe.”

    Then, when the war is over, taxes never seem to return to their previous low and freedoms never fully return. With each conflict, the state ratchets up its power over the people.

    And in modern times, there’s an additional incentive. Since the end of World War II, the US military-industrial complex has been displeased with the fact that peacetime means diminished revenue for them. Increasingly, they’ve contributed heavily to election campaigns for both major parties in every election.

    The repayment for those contributions has always been the same – the political class must find excuses to create a new conflict as soon as another one ends, ensuring the continued revenue of the complex.

    This has resulted in the US becoming the first and only country that’s in a consciously created state of perpetual warfare. The cost of this, in 2018, was roughly $600 billion – 54% of all federal discretionary spending.

    Much of that cost goes to the maintenance of some 800 military bases across the globe, but the military-industrial complex is forever seeking opportunities for expansion, and having been paid for it with campaign funds, political leaders need to find excuses for new conflicts with regularity.

    Presently, world leaders are doing their best to deflect taunts by the US. The self-appointed “world’s policeman” is wagging its finger at North Korea with regard to nuclear weapons development, at Venezuela, seeking to replace their leader with an American puppet, at China with regard to islands in the South China Sea and at a host of countries in the Middle East. To each of these, US leaders have said that armed aggression by the US “cannot be ruled out.” And, “All options are on the table.”

    As stated above, the peoples of these countries tend to have no desire to go to war. But political leaders have a vested interest in warfare. In addition, military leaders have a stake in the game.

    Imagine having graduated from West Point and having spent your military career as an undistinguished desk jockey. By the time you’ve risen to the rank of general, all you’ve done is push pencils. And yet, the reason you joined up in the first place was to become a military leader, with a chest full of battle ribbons.

    This is the conundrum that taunts the more sociopathic military leaders – the George Pattons and the Douglas MacArthurs – who, once they’ve been given a command, tend to become carried away in their zeal to create their own legacy through armed combat. The greater the bloodletting, the greater the victory.

    In a leadup to active conflict, such generals tend to be like pit bulls on tight leashes – straining to be released so that they can fulfil their destiny.

    In almost every case, there are players on both sides who fit this description. As a result, all that’s needed is a small spark to set off armed conflict.

    And generally, the provocation that begins a war is a small one. For World War I, all that was necessary was for an archduke of Austria to be assassinated, by a Bosnian teenager, while riding in an open car.

    Within a month, Austria-Hungary and Serbia entered into war. All over Europe, people were astonished at how quickly other countries took up sides. France, Russia, Great Britain and, later, Japan, Greece and the US all teamed up against Austria-Hungary, Germany, Italy and even the Ottoman Empire.

    Before the war ended, some four years later, some seventy million military personnel had been involved, plus countless civilians – and all due to a shot fired by a young malcontent.

    In most all such cases, when a military retaliates against a minor act of aggression, the people of the respective countries hope that the scuffle will be brief, and life can return to normal. But that’s almost never the way it plays out. Invariably, there are those political and military leaders on both sides who revel in the conflict and are determined to demonstrate that they themselves will emerge as the unquestioned victors.

    The technical starting point of any major war is, in fact, incidental. Most any excuse will suffice. What’s necessary is two opponents, each of whom accuses the other of attempting to foment aggression. At that point, all that’s needed to light the spark is a young soldier or agitator with an itchy trigger finger, or a politician with a show of bravado, or a military leader who chooses to break from his orders to stand down.

    In many cases, if the war does not start spontaneously, a false-flag incident suffices. One country creates an event which it purports is an act of aggression by its opponent. (The recent events in the Strait of Hormuz have a distinct false-flag odour about them.)

    Again, the actual catalyst matters little. Once the rattling of sabres begins, as it has, presently, in the Middle East, all that’s required to create a major war is a slipup or a nudge.

    *  *  *

    The US government is overextending itself by interfering in every corner of the globe. It’s all financed by massive amounts of money printing. However, the next financial crisis could end the whole charade soon. The truth is, we’re on the cusp of a global economic crisis that could eclipse anything we’ve seen before. That’s exactly why bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent new report with all the details. Click here to download the PDF now.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 22:10

  • "She Doesn't Know Who The F**k She's Tweeting": Leon Cooperman Explodes At Elizabeth Warren 'Eat The Rich' Ad
    “She Doesn’t Know Who The F**k She’s Tweeting”: Leon Cooperman Explodes At Elizabeth Warren ‘Eat The Rich’ Ad

    Billionaire hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman says Sen. Elizabeth Warren “represents the worst in politicians,” and that “she doesn’t know who the fuck she’s tweeting” after the Massachusetts Democrat’s latest salvo against the rich.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    A new ad by Warren, titled “Elizabeth Warren Stands Up to Billionaires,” targets Cooperman, along with former CEO of TD Ameritrade Joe Ricketts, former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein and Silicon Valley investor Peter Thiel according to CNBC.

    In it, Cooperman – who joked in September that “they won’t open the stock market if Elizabeth Warren is the next president – has the words “CHARGED WITH INSIDER TRADING” superimposed over his face.

    “As far as the accusations of insider trading, I won the case. She’s disgraceful. She doesn’t know who the f— she’s tweeting. I gave away more in the year than she has in her whole f—-ing lifetime,” Cooperman told CNBC on Wednesday.

    Days before breaking out in tears on CNBC over the American political divide, sent Warren a Halloween letter in which he said she’s treating him like “a parent chiding an ungrateful child.”

    Warren hit back, tweeting “Leon is wrong. I’m fighting for big changes like universal child care, investing in public schools, and free public college.”

    Other business titans, including J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon, have taken on Warren for her attacks on the wealthy.

    Her war with business leaders has led to her crafting a strong group of supporters that have propelled her in the polls.

    After being behind the Democratic front-runner, former Vice President Joe Biden, by at least 30 points in May, she has surged to being only six points from catching up to his lead, according to a Real Clear Politics polling average. -CNBC

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Interestingly, Warren’s poll numbers started tanking after Warren unveiled her wealth tax plan and cooperman said “Her policies are counter-productive, they’re negative for capitalism…you don’t make the poor people rich by making the rich people poor.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    2020 Democratic candidate odds via PredictIt

    Now, for fun, the inverse of Warren’s odds against the Dow:

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 21:50

  • Disney Did In 1 Day What Took HBO 4 Years: 10 Million Streaming Subscribers
    Disney Did In 1 Day What Took HBO 4 Years: 10 Million Streaming Subscribers

    Somewhere Netflix and Amazon video are sweating.

    Disney announced today that Disney+ has reached a stunning 10 million plus subscribers just 24 hours after its launch yesterday in the U.S., Canada, and Netherlands; the figure surprised analysts who had expected a much slower rollout for Disney to reach that level, although let’s just ignore that most of the new “subs” are only there thanks to one of the various free streaming offers (perhaps someone should launch WeStream).

    Separately, Apptopia reported 3.2 million mobile app downloads in the first 24 hours, with an estimated 89% of mobile downloads in the U.S., 9% in Canada, and 2% in the Netherlands. In just one day, users spent 1.3 million hours watching it, Apptopia said, more than Amazon.com Inc.’s Prime Video, but far less than the 6 million hours watched on Netflix.

    “Disney should silence naysayers who expressed reservations about a pivot to streaming,” said Geetha Ranganathan, a media analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. “It took HBO Now about four years to reach about 10 million streaming subscribers.”

    That’s just the beginning: on Nov. 19, Disney+ will launch in Australia, New Zealand, and Puerto Rico (Puerto Rico’s launch was delayed one week) and will launch in Western Europe on March 31, 2020. While the service experienced first day technical glitches, this was likely due to high consumer demand which was ahead of management’s expectations and not structural issues with the app.

    At this fervent adoption rate, Disney could hit its target of 60 million to 90 million worldwide subscribers in just months, if not weeks, and certainly well before the company’s original 2024 goal, according to Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives. This, of course is bad news for legacy streamers such as Netflix, which could see as many as 10% of its customers lured away to rival services such as Disney+ and one from Apple that launched earlier this month.

    Commenting on Disney’s stunning disclosure, JPM said that the steep ramp reflects a philosophy of “initial subscribers now; pricing later.” Disney’s willingness to debut its content-rich service at an attractive price point is leading to massive subscriber growth which will likely lead to pricing power later. To be sure, JPM noted questions arise regarding the ARPU despite the strong ramp in subs, including:

    1. subscribers opting-in to the Verizon deal for a free year of Disney+ from a potential opportunity of ~17-19m eligible Verizon customers;
    2. subscribers to the bundle with ESPN+ and ad-supported Hulu; and
    3. subscriber churn following the free seven-day trial. Overall, we are positive on the read-through for subscriber growth at ESPN+ and adsupported Hulu as the combination at $12.99/month is a compelling deal.

    Even so, the bank pointed out that “the announcement surpasses our expectations for 5m subs in the first quarter; we now expect 15m subscribers in FQ120 and bump up our full year expectations from 15m to 25m.”

    Separately, Disney clinched important last minute deals for its content. Ahead of the Disney+ launch, Disney started to remove on-demand content for cable customers, in our view to create heightened demand for the content and the product.
    As a result, nearly all Marvel movies are available to stream in the U.S., including Avengers: Endgame (initially expected to stream on Dec. 11) as Disney struck some last-minute rights deals. Four Marvel films will remain on Netflix through the end of 2019 (Black Panther, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Avengers: Infinity War, and Thor: Ragnarok) and will stream on Disney+ in 2020.

    As an aside, JPM analyst Alexia Quadrani noted that she was impressed by the content and user experience of Disney+ upon launch: “The recommendations, originals tab, as well as different collections under the search tab make it very easy to navigate through content and find what one is looking for. We did experience some technical issues on launch day, which we think is due to strong demand and not any underlying issues given the service has been in beta for months in the Netherlands.”

    Not surprisingly, DIS stock exploded higher on the announcement, climbing as much as 6.8% on Wednesday, its biggest intraday rally in seventh months, and hitting a new all time high.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Netflix shares tumbled 3.7% as its company’s investors assess how big a threat Disney+ will be.

    Finally, for those curious, yesterday we showed a full breakdown of which video streaming service is showing what exclusive content; we recreate it below.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 21:33

  • Trade Wars Slam Chinese Retail Sales, Investment Growth Weakest In 21 Years
    Trade Wars Slam Chinese Retail Sales, Investment Growth Weakest In 21 Years

    While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Source: Bloomberg

    … reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Source: Bloomberg

    tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.

    Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.

    • China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp

    • China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp

    • China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.

    • China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY

    • China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%

    This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Source: Bloomberg

    This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.

    As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Source: Bloomberg

    Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.

    This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.

    “The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

    We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”

    The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.

    As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.

    Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 21:08

  • Trump To Ask SCOTUS To Decide Tax Case After Appeals Court Loss
    Trump To Ask SCOTUS To Decide Tax Case After Appeals Court Loss

    President Trump’s accounting firm is just one step away from having to turn over eight years of tax records, after the US Court of Appeals for DC shut down Trump’s last attempt to reconsider the case.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    A majority of the court’s 11-judge panel voted to uphold an October 11 decision by a three-judge panel that accounting firm Mazars USA must hand over the records to Congress without a successful appeal. Of those who would have granted a rehearing, two are Trump appointees – Neomi Rao and Gregory Katsas, who served in the Trump administration.

    “This case presents exceptionally important questions regarding the separation of powers,” wrote Katsas.

    He warned of the “threat to presidential autonomy and independence” and said it would be “open season on the President’s personal records” if Congress is allowed to compel the president to disclose personal records based on the possibility that it might inform legislation. –Washington Post

    As a result, Trump will ask the Supreme Court to consider the case, according to Trump attorkey Jay Sekulow, who said in response to Wednesday’s decision that the legal team “will be seeking review at the Supreme Court,” according to the Washington Post.

    Sekulow in a statement cited the “well reasoned dissent” in Trump’s decision to go to the Supreme Court.

    Trump’s attorneys also are planning to ask the high court as soon as Thursday to block a similar subpoena for the president’s tax records from the Manhattan district attorney, who is investigating hush-money payments in the lead-up to the 2016 election. The New York-based appeals court ruled against Trump this month and refused to block the subpoena to his accounting firm, Mazars USA.

    The D.C. Circuit case centers on a House Oversight Committee subpoena from March for the president’s accounting firm records — issued months before the beginning of its impeachment inquiry, related to Trump’s alleged efforts to pressure Ukraine to investigate his political rival Joe Biden. –Washington Post

    “Contrary to the President’s arguments, the Committee possesses authority under both the House Rules and the Constitution to issue the subpoena, and Mazars must comply,” wrote Democrat-nominated Judges David S. Tatel and Patricia A. Millett.

    Rao, the dissenting judge on the October 11 panel, reiterated that she felt the Congressional committee had exceeded its authority with a legislative subpoena “investigating whether the President broke the law.”

    “By upholding this subpoena, the panel opinion has shifted the balance of power between Congress and the President and allowed a congressional committee to circumvent the careful process of impeachment,” she wrote.

    Rao also wrote Wednesday that the committee “is wrong to suggest” that questions over whether the subpoena is valid “are no longer of ‘practical consequence,'” and that it’s an open question as to “whether a defective subpoena can be revived by after-the-fact approval.”


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 20:50

  • Chinese Think Tank Becomes First Official Body To Predict 2020 GDP Will Drop Below 6%
    Chinese Think Tank Becomes First Official Body To Predict 2020 GDP Will Drop Below 6%

    While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    … reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    … today a Beijing-based think tank has become the first Chinese economic research institute linked to the government to predict that China’s economic growth rate will slow below 6.0% next year.

    The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.

    This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.

    “The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). “We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”

    The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.

    According to the NIFD, China’s exports will be “negatively affected for a long period amid the slowing global economy, private investment may be dampened by trade war uncertainties, while the effects of countercyclical policies will only begin to be evident in the first quarter of next year.”

    Li said the government’s fiscal deficit problem will stand out in the future, adding that the government may have to issue more bonds to fulfil its expenditure responsibilities. This could demand more bond holdings by the central bank – i.e., a more aggressive monetization of the deficit – and better coordination and institutional arrangement between fiscal and monetary authorities, suggesting that China may well be the first nation to launch some version of MMT.

    “The macro control regime needs to be revamped,” he added.

    China’s economy started to slow from 2011, with its growth rate already dropping to 6.0% in the third quarter of 2019, the slowest rate since quarterly growth data was first published in 1992. The continued slowdown has stirred market discussion over whether – and how far – Beijing should loosen its policy stance to support growth, as has occurred in many developed countries, including the United States.

    However, with China’s debt already surpassing 300% according to the IIF…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    … a continued rise in the nation’s debt level is keeping a lid on policymakers’ leeway. New NIFD data showed that the government’s macro leverage ratio – the total debt to gross domestic product – has recorded an “unsatisfactory” rise so far this year. Government leverage rose 0.7 percentage point to 39.2 per cent in the third quarter and climbed by a total of 2.0 percentage points in the first nine months of the year.

    According to China’s own calculations, the country’s overall debt to GDP ratio rose to 251.1% at the end of the third quarter, up 1.6% from the previous quarter. The increase was led by the household sector, with debt rising 1.0 percentage point to 56.3% in the third quarter.

    However, with few other levers to pull and despite the surge in debt, the NIFD called for a bigger central government budget deficit to allow for more expenditure to support the economy. At the same time, additional efforts should be made to reduce the leverage of state-owned enterprises, in particular zombie enterprises and local government financing vehicles.

    Zhang Xiaojing, deputy director of the CASS’ Institute of Economics, said the extent of the increase in leverage would depend on the growth rate that the government is trying to achieve: “The pressure for economic stabilization next year won’t be as big [as people think],” he predicted, although that may well depend on the status of the trade war with the US.

    The NIFD warned of huge uncertainties over the trade tension between China and the US, while also predicting that the yuan exchange rate would fluctuate between 7.0 and 7.2 against the US dollar next year.

    “The tariff war may be basically over in 2020, but the bilateral conflicts won’t end easily,” said Zhang Ping, its deputy director, suggesting that as China joins the US in pursuit of foreign capital to funds it soon to be negative capital account, relations between the US and China are only set to deteriorate.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 20:34

  • Alibaba To Sell Up To $15 Billion In Stock In Massive Hong Kong Secondary
    Alibaba To Sell Up To $15 Billion In Stock In Massive Hong Kong Secondary

    Alibaba Group, the title holder for world’s largest IPO, has announced plans for a massive secondary stock offering in Hong Kong to take place in late November, in a vote of confidence for the local financial market as the worst political crisis in the city’s history threatens its status as a global financial hub.

    According to public filing, China’s e-commerce giant will issue 500 million new shares, with 487.5 million set aside for international offering and the rest for Hong Kong public. The offering, which was approved by the Hong Kong stock exchange, includes a 75 million share greenshoe option and aims to raise between $10 billion and $15 billion from the sale which would make it the biggest equity fundraising of the year.

    Despite the Hong Kong sale, Alibaba, which raised a record $25 billion in 2014 in New York, will retain its US listing, because of its deep capital markets while the group taps into the growing pool of funds in Asia with its latest plan.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    According to the SCMP, the massive stock sale will give a much needed boost for the city gripped by more than five months of anti-government protests and a simmering US-China trade war, pushing the local stock exchange on a home run for global IPO crown this year in competition with the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The move represents a major boost for the city gripped by more than five months of anti-government protests and a simmering US-China trade war, and puts the local stock exchange on a home run for global IPO crown this year in competition with the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq.

    Alibaba has been working on a plan to list its shares in Hong Kong – what the company calls its “natural first choice” – since it abandoned the local market for New York in 2014, according to people familiar with the matter. Part of the motivation is to give its army of online shopping customers in mainland China and elsewhere in Asia the opportunity to own its shares.

    Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said Alibaba’s secondary listing is “a testimony of Hong Kong’s status as a premier listing platform.”

    Quoted by SCMP, “The tension between the US and China in the areas of trade and technology has added to the attractiveness of Hong Kong as an international listing platform for mainland tech companies,” Chan said in response to queries by the Post before the filing. “We strive to become the preferred listing platform for companies in the innovative and technology sector.”

    The green light clears the path for Hangzhou-based Alibaba to start a weeklong roadshow this week to drum up interest from institutional and retail investors. The shares in international offering are expected to be price on November 20 or no later than November 25, according to the SEC filing. They will begin trading in Hong Kong on November 26. Cornerstone investors, a unique feature of Hong Kong’s financial market where large investors are invited to anchor important public offerings, will be absent because the shares are so much in demand, according to people familiar with the plan.

    With so much attention falling on major shareholder Softbank in recent weeks, key SoftBank executives have agreed to a 90-day lock up on their stakes under the listing plan. Every eight newly issued shares in Hong Kong will be equal to one American Depositary Share traded in New York, the SEC filing shows. Based on the ADS closing price of US$186.97 on November 12, it could raise between US$11.63 billion and US$13.37 billion in Hong Kong, Alibaba said. The secondary listing in Hong Kong would swell the market value of Asia’s biggest company, and rank it the biggest offerings in Hong Kong in almost a decade. At the top end of US$15 billion, the deal would be the largest after insurance group AIA’s HK$159 billion IPO in 2010 and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s HK$124.95 billion deal in 2006.

    After Hong Kong stocks rebounded their worst quarter in four years, fundraising returned to Hong Kong as dozens of companies including Budweiser Brewing Company APAC and ESR Cayman have raised a combined US$11.53 billion. Alibaba’s plan, even at the lower end of the range of US$10 billion, will catapult Hong Kong to the summit of global IPO league this year.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    A Hong Kong listing may also finally give mainland China’s investors the chance to participate in the growth of one of the country’s most profitable technology giants, should China add Alibaba to its Stock Connect programme in the coming months, sources said.

    “It is going to be a hot deal,” said Jojo Choy Sze-chung, vice-chairman of the Institute of Securities Dealers. “Alibaba already has several good e-commerce platforms and other profitable businesses. It should not be a problem for the company to raise up to US$15 billion.”

    Alibaba’s impending offering follows the recent conclusion of its 2019 Singles’ Day online shopping gala, when a record US$43 billion of merchandise were sold in the 24-hour shopping spree. American pop diva Taylor Swift headlined this year’s shopping festival with a curtain-raiser showpiece in Shanghai.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 20:30

  • Exposing John Brennan's CIA Trump Task Force
    Exposing John Brennan’s CIA Trump Task Force

    Authored by Philip Giraldi via The Unz Review,

    Could it become Obamagate?

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    There is considerable evidence that the American system of government may have been victimized by an illegal covert operation organized and executed by the U.S. intelligence and national security community. Former Director of National Intelligence Jim Clapper, former CIA Director John Brennan and former FBI Director Jim Comey appear to have played critical leadership roles in carrying out this conspiracy and they may not have operated on their own. Almost certainly what they may have done would have been explicitly authorized by the former President of the United States, Barack Obama, and his national security team.

    It must have seemed a simple operation for the experienced CIA covert action operatives. To prevent the unreliable and unpredictable political upstart Donald Trump from being nominated as the GOP presidential candidate or even elected it would be necessary to create suspicion that he was the tool of a resurgent Russia, acting under direct orders from Vladimir Putin to empower Trump and damage the campaign of Hillary Clinton. Even though none of the alleged Kremlin plotters would have expected Trump to actually beat Hillary, it was plausible to maintain that they would have hoped that a weakened Clinton would be less able to implement the anti-Russian agenda that she had been promoting. Many observers in both Russia and the U.S. believed that if she had been elected armed conflict with Moscow would have been inevitable, particularly if she moved to follow her husband’s example and push to have both Georgia and Ukraine join NATO, which Russia would have regarded as an existential threat.

    Trump’s surprising victory forced a pivot, with Clapper, Brennan and Comey adjusting the narrative to make it appear that Trump the traitor may have captured the White House due to help from the Kremlin, making him a latter-day Manchurian Candidate. The lesser allegations of Russian meddling were quickly elevated to devastating assertions that the Republican had only won with Putin’s assistance.

    No substantive evidence for the claim of serious Russian meddling has ever been produced in spite of years of investigation, but the real objective was to plant the story that would plausibly convince a majority of Americans that the election of Donald Trump was somehow illegitimate.

    The national security team acted to protect their candidate Hillary Clinton, who represented America’s Deep State. In spite of considerable naysaying, the Deep State is real, not just a wild conspiracy theory. Many Americans nevertheless do not believe that the Deep State exists, that it is a politically driven media creation much like Russiagate itself was, but if one changes the wording a bit and describes the Deep State as the Establishment, with its political power focused in Washington and its financial center in New York City, the argument that there exists a cohesive group of power brokers who really run the country becomes much more plausible.

    The danger posed by the Deep State, or, if you choose, the Establishment, is that it wields immense power but is unelected and unaccountable. It also operates through relationships that are not transparent and as the media is part of it, there is little chance that its activity will be exposed.

    Nevertheless, some might even argue that having a Deep State is a healthy part of American democracy, that it serves as a check or corrective element on a political system that has largely been corrupted and which no longer serves national interests. But that assessment surely might have been made before it became clear that many of the leaders of the nation’s intelligence and security agencies are no longer the people’s honorable servants they pretend to be. They have been heavily politicized since at least the time of Ronald Reagan and have frequently succumbed to the lure of wealth and power while identifying with and promoting the interests of the Deep State.

    Indeed, a number of former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Directors have implicitly or even directly admitted to the existence of a Deep State that has as one of its roles keeping presidents like Donald Trump in check. Most recently, John McLaughlin, responding to a question about Donald Trump’s concern over Deep State involvement in the ongoing impeachment process, said unambiguously “Well, you know, thank God for the ‘deep state’…With all of the people who knew what was going on here, it took an intelligence officer to step forward and say something about it, which was the trigger that then unleashed everything else. This is the institution within the U.S. government…is institutionally committed to objectivity and telling the truth. It is one of the few institutions in Washington that is not in a chain of command that makes or implements policy. Its whole job is to speak the truth — it’s engraved in marble in the lobby.”

    Well, John’s dedication to truth is exemplary but how does he explain his own role in support of the lies being promoted by his boss George “slam dunk” Tenet that led to the war against Iraq, the greatest foreign policy disaster ever experienced by the United States? Or Tenet’s sitting in the U.N. directly behind Secretary of State Colin Powell in the debate over Iraq, providing cover and credibility for what everyone inside the system knew to be a bundle of lies? Or his close friend and colleague Michael Morell’s description of Trump as a Russian agent, a claim that was supported by zero evidence and which was given credibility only by Morell’s boast that “I ran the CIA.”

    Beyond that, more details have been revealed demonstrating exactly how Deep State associates have attempted, with considerable success, to subvert the actual functioning of American democracy. Words are one thing, but acting to interfere in an electoral process or to undermine a serving president is a rather more serious matter.

    It is now known that President Barack Obama’s CIA Director John Brennan created a Trump Task Force in early 2016. Rather than working against genuine foreign threats, this Task Force played a critical role in creating and feeding the meme that Donald Trump was a tool of the Russians and a puppet of President Vladimir Putin, a claim that still surfaces regularly to this day. Working with James Clapper, the Director of National Intelligence, Brennan fabricated the narrative that “Russia had interfered in the 2016 election.” Brennan and Clapper promoted that tale even though they knew very well that Russia and the United States have carried out a broad array of covert actions against each other, including information operations, for the past seventy years, but they pretended that what happened in 2016 was qualitatively and substantively different even though the “evidence” produced to support that claim was and still is weak to nonexistent.

    The Russian “election interference” narrative went on steroids on January 6, 2017, shortly before Trump was inaugurated, when an “Intelligence Community Assessment” (ICA) orchestrated by Clapper and Brennan was published. The banner headline atop The New York Times, itself an integral part of the Deep State, on the following day set the tone for what was to follow: “Putin Led Scheme to Aid Trump, Report Says.”

    With the help of the Establishment media, Clapper and Brennan were able to pretend that the ICA had been approved by “all 17 intelligence agencies” (as first claimed by Hillary Clinton). After several months, however Clapper revealed that the preparers of the ICA were “handpicked analysts” from only the FBI, CIA, and NSA. He explained rather unconvincingly during an interview on May 28, 2017, that “the historical practices of the Russians, who typically, are almost genetically driven to co-opt, penetrate, gain favor, whatever, which is a typical Russian technique,” adding later that “It’s in their DNA.”

    Task Force Trump was kept secret within the Agency itself because the CIA is not supposed to spy on Americans. Its staff was pulled together by invitation-only. Specific case officers (i.e., men and women who recruit and handle spies overseas), analysts and administrative personnel were recruited, presumably based on their political reliability. Not everyone invited accepted the offer. But many did because it came with promises of promotion and other rewards.

    And this was not a CIA-only operation. Personnel from the FBI also were assigned to the Task Force with the approval of then Director James Comey. Former MI-6 agent Christopher Steele’s FBI handler, Michael Gaeta, may have been one of those detailed to the Trump Task Force. Steele, of course, prepared the notorious dossier that was surfaced shortly before Donald Trump took office. It included considerable material intended to tie Trump to Russia, information that was in many cases fabricated or unsourced.

    So, what kind of things would this Task Force do? The case officers would work with foreign intelligence services such as MI-6, the Italians, the Ukrainians and the Australians on identifying intelligence collection priorities that would implicate Trump and his associates in illegal activity. And there is evidence that John Brennan himself would contact his counterparts in allied intelligence services to obtain their discreet cooperation, something they would be inclined to do in collegial fashion, ignoring whatever reservations they might have about spying on a possible American presidential candidate.

    Trump Task Force members could have also tasked the National Security Agency (NSA) to do targeted collection. They also would have the ability to engage in complicated covert actions that would further set up and entrap Trump and his staff in questionable activity, such as the targeting of associate George Papadopoulos. If he is ever properly interviewed, Maltese citizen Joseph Mifsud may be able to shed light on the CIA officers who met with him, briefed him on operational objectives regarding Papadopoulos and helped arrange monitored meetings. It is highly likely that Azra Turk, the woman who met with George Papadopoulos, was part of the CIA Trump Task Force.

    The Task Force also could carry out other covert actions, sometimes using press or social media placements to disseminate fabrications about Trump and his associates. Information operations is a benign-sounding euphemism for propaganda fed through the Agency’s friends in the media, and computer network operations can be used to create false linkages and misdirect inquiries. There has been some informed speculation that Guccifer 2.0 may have been a creation of this Task Force.

    In light of what has been learned about the alleged CIA whistleblower there should be a serious investigation to determine if he was a part of this Task Force or, at minimum, reporting to them secretly after he was seconded to the National Security Council. All the CIA and FBI officers involved in the Task Force had sworn an oath to uphold the Constitution of the United States, but nevertheless were involved in a conspiracy to first denigrate and then possibly bring down a legally elected president. That effort continues with repeated assertions regarding Moscow’s malevolent intentions for the 2020 national elections. Some might reasonably regard the whole Brennan affair, to include its spear carriers among the current and retired national security state leadership, as a case of institutionalized treason, and it inevitably leads to the question “What did Obama know?”


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 20:10

    Tags

  • Russia To Reduce US Dollars In National Wealth Fund As Putin's De-Dollarization Continues 
    Russia To Reduce US Dollars In National Wealth Fund As Putin’s De-Dollarization Continues 

    Russia’s de-dollarization effort is full steam ahead, in line with President Putin’s commitment to reduce the country’s vulnerability to the continuing threat of US sanctions.

    Crossing the wires early Wednesday morning, Russian Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev, was quoted by Reuters as saying the Russian sovereign wealth fund will reduce US Dollars and is considering adding Chinese yuan. 

    • RUSSIAN DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER KOLYCHEV SAYS SHARE OF US DOLLARS IN NATIONAL WEALTH FUND WILL BE REDUCED 

    • RUSSIAN DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER KOLYCHEV SAYS INCLUSION OF OTHER FOREIGN CURRENCIES INCLUDING YUAN IS BEING CONSIDERED

    • RUSSIAN DEPUTY FINANCE MINISTER KOLYCHEV SAYS FINANCE MINISTRY PLANS TO CHANGE NATIONAL WEALTH FUND’S FX STRUCTURE IN 2020 

    Kolychev said the change to the foreign exchange structure of the wealth fund would occur in 2020.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Last month, Russian Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin told the Financial Times that the country would continue down the path of de-dollarization and begin trading some oil transactions in Euros and roubles.

    “We have very good currency, and it’s stable. Why not use it for global transactions?” Oreshkin said in a recent interview with the FT.

     “We want (oil and gas sales) in roubles at some point,” he said.

    Despite less than 5% of Russia’s $687.5 billion in annual trade being with the US, it remains that over half of that trade still relies on the dollar, according to Bloomberg figures.

    US sanctions have been very selective as of recent, specifically targeting Gazprom, the country’s gas giant. Sanctions have banned any US company from supplying Gazprom with equipment.

    Russia’s desire to abandon the dollar is a trend that continues to gain momentum and could be fully realized by the mid/late 2020s.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 19:50

  • US Naval Institute Proceedings: "A Zombie Fighter's Guide To Strategy"
    US Naval Institute Proceedings: “A Zombie Fighter’s Guide To Strategy”

    Authored by James Holmes via US Naval Institute,

    The chief takeaway from David Epstein’s book Range, which investigates Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World, is this: think broadly, not narrowly. Risk being called a dilettante. Learn from many disciplines and experiences rather than burrow so deeply into one field that you can no longer see above ground to survey the wider world. And then apply insights from one field when some baffling question arises in another.

    That is sage counsel for students and practitioners of strategy, who tap insights from history, political science, economics, and an array of related fields.

    Maintains Epstein, specialists encounter trouble when tackling the problems characteristic of a “wicked” world. Wicked problems are intricate. They involve variables that combine and recombine in offbeat ways. They defy the boundaries of a single field and often vex specialists. By contrast, generalists hunt for “distant” analogies to challenges. Analogies seldom reveal answers, but they help inquisitors discover the right questions to ask. Asking penetrating questions constitutes the first step toward a solution, toward wisdom.

    One imagines Epstein would approve of harnessing fiction and literature as a source of wisdom. Fiction supplies abundant analogies for students of politics and strategy. Some of them are remote indeed, bounded only by the author’s whimsy.

    Exhibit A: stories about zombies!

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Max Brooks’s World War Z is an imaginary oral history compiled a decade after a global war against the undead. Brooks has a researcher interview protagonists in the zombie war, not just to unearth facts about it but to record their feelings and impressions.

    The interviews make up the book’s narrative. The relative lack of commentary gives the book a stark, spare quality—amplifying its impact. Warning: major spoilers ahead.

    World War Z relates unfamiliar phenomena that illuminate something familiar, namely the profession of arms. The approach works not because warmaking against living, breathing foes is exactly like fighting ghouls, but because counter-zombie combat resembles war in the real world in some respects while differing from it strikingly in others. Juxtaposing the ordinary against the extraordinary compels military readers to examine their profession afresh.

    Brooks’s fictional chronicle raises questions – and questions make us think. Four pointers from the living dead and those who battle them:

    1. Know yourself.

    Brooks has either read Thucydides or takes the same jaundiced view of human nature he did. The father of history showed how a plague peeled away the veneer of civilization from the most cultured society in classical Greece, the city-state of Athens. Athenians reverted to base instincts and passions almost overnight, and why not? If you may die tomorrow, you may as well live it up tonight. Debauchery ensues. Similarly, citizen took up arms against citizen on the island of Corcyra (modern-day Corfu). Civil strife shattered all bonds of family and fellowship as democrats and oligarchs fought to determine who would rule.

    Pockets of Brooks’s brave new world witness similar breakdowns. Industrial civilization is not exempt from the afflictions of the ancients. Far from it.

    For example, during the “Great Panic” that accompanies the rise of the living dead, the Hollywood glitterati hire private security firms to guard them from zombies within luxury residences, all while preening on camera for reality shows that showcase their supposed fortitude. Ship crews screen evacuees by race, permitting only those with the correct skin hue to board their vessels to flee the onslaught. You can only imagine what transpires in refugee camps in the far north when populations swell, food and fuel supplies dwindle, and frigid temperatures and weather descend.

    And on and on. World War Z holds up a mirror, forcing us to look ourselves in the face while contemplating the impact of mass disaster and warfare on human society. This forms part of the strategic context, and the sight isn’t always pretty.

    2. Know the enemy. 

    Strategic grandmaster Carl von Clausewitz—not among the undead legions at last report—warns commanders and their political overseers to assess the nature of the war on which they are about to embark, “neither mistaking it for, nor trying to turn it into, something that is alien to its nature.” But the living do not get the chance to undertake Clausewitzian analysis in Brooks’s account. War is thrust upon them. World War Z haunts precisely because the tale unfolds in everyday surroundings, against a deathless enemy that should not even exist.

    Clausewitz counsels leaders to exercise foresight before going to war; zombie war is unthinkable, and who wastes time planning for the unthinkable? Horrors ensue when you neglect the nature of the war. Think about unthinkable situations before they become thinkable.

    And about the nature of the foe. The walking dead are an enemy unlike any human antagonist. In fact, counter-zombie warfare resembles epidemiology more than warfare in the usual sense. Think about it. Public health seeks to eradicate disease, not contain it or strike a compromise peace with it. Victory means utterly wiping out a pestilence.

    Like an infectious disease, zombies neither hate nor fear nor scheme. These are enemies incapable of malice or strategic thought. They infect. The undead reproduce themselves by biting human victims—much as a contagion spreads from host to host. In effect they are “vectors” spreading a virus that reanimates the slain. Thus even a lone zombie shambling around the earth represents a major threat to humanity. Victory over the living dead means slaughtering them to the last ghoul. Containment is a poor second best. So long as one remains at large, a devastating new outbreak is possible.

    In other words, a zombie war is what strategists call an “unlimited” war, taken to its utmost extreme. Against an ordinary human adversary, unlimited war means crushing hostile forces or unseating the government they serve and imposing whatever terms you choose. Taken to extremes, unlimited war tends toward what Clausewitz terms “absolute” war—an unbounded spasm of violence with no political purpose. It is slaughter for its own sake.

    Thankfully, Clausewitz concludes that absolute war does not exist outside the pages of books. War pits human foes against one another—and politics exerts a moderating influence on human struggles.

    There is no such moderator in a fight against a mindless foe. The masters of strategy prescribe ways to get your way short of genocide. Yet the undead have no willpower to break and cannot be frightened into submission. They have no forces to smash, strategies to outwit, or alliances to break. They have no capital to conquer. They cannot conceive of compromise, let alone bargain. All they have is mass. Millions upon millions of bodies lurch along, uncoordinated yet driven toward the same goal by herd instinct.

    Fictional strife in which strategic success equates to inflicting 100 percent casualties invites strategic thinkers to ponder the nature and ethics of unlimited war in our (purportedly) zombie-free world. 

    3. Fit strategy, tactics, and hardware to the fight—not the other way around. 

    Misfit armaments and maladroit tactics plague armed forces during the early phases of the zombie war. Armies and air forces built to fight high-tech antagonists have to reinvent themselves for infantry combat aimed at indiscriminate slaughter of the enemy. Easier said than done. Brooks’s historian interviews “Todd,” a jaded former infantryman. The ex-soldier recounts how heavy armaments and static defensive measures designed to halt “Ivan” in the Fulda Gap during the Cold War proved futile against mobs of reanimated corpses.

    Determined to show the populace the domestic order remains intact, a panicky U.S. administration decides to stage a “decisive” stand in Yonkers, stemming the tide of zombies flowing out of Manhattan. (Bostonians insert favorite Yankees joke here.) Todd takes officialdom to task for folly. Precision munitions do some good against undead hordes, dispatching thousands; but there’s too little ammunition in the magazines to prevail. Defenders, that is, have too few uber-pricey gun projectiles, missiles, and bombs to mow down the millions of ghouls that come behind those brought down in the initial waves.

    Guns, missile launchers, and tactical aircraft bereft of ordnance accomplish little. Todd also sees cultural travails at work. American troops, he recalls, are schooled to aim at the midsections of enemy soldiers, whereas it takes a shot to the head to fell a zombie. It is hard to remake the habits of a lifetime, on the fly, against enemies that should not exist, and that feel no pain or fear when struck in the torso. Of necessity, advanced armed forces cast aside gee-whiz implements of war in favor of weapons that strike down multitudes in bulk. The latest thingamabob may not be the best tool for the job.

    More primal tactics are a must. Humanity starts to recover when military folk commence improvising warmaking methods for the strategic environment that actually confronts them. Governments temporarily abandon ground to the walking dead and turn terrain to advantage. U.S. citizens withdraw west of the Rocky Mountains to regroup and rearm, using the peaks as a sentinel line and garrisoning the narrow passages between. South Asians retreat into the Himalayas. Having established defensive lines, the living tend to the sinews of national power. Resuscitating moribund economies provides the resources needed to defend against the hordes and, ultimately, go on the strategic offensive and win.

    It is a mistake to assume the enemy will conform to our preferred way of fighting. A savvy opponent tries to throw us out of our comfort zone—disorienting us for tactical and strategic gain. Living enemies mimic the living dead in that sense.

    4. Adapt and overcome.

    Inventive contenders command an advantage when going up against an adversary that—however remorseless or terrifying—is unable to learn or grow. The competitive impulse that pervades human struggle, prodding contestants to innovate and counter-innovate in an effort to outdo one another, is entirely absent from the zombie host. An enemy without ingenuity or passion to innovate is an inert enemy in strategic terms. And indeed, the zombie war is one-sided once humanity rides out the apocalypse, gains a respite to adapt, and comes out fighting.

    Resourceful folk fashion new weapons and tactics while unimaginative foes plod along, doing the same thing time after time—which makes a hopeful note to close on. When facing new circumstances, get to know the circumstances and stay loose. Recognize that the nimbler contender is apt to be the victor—and broad-mindedness is the key to staying nimble. I daresay Epstein and Clausewitz would agree.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 19:30

  • Fears Of Pneumonic Plague Outbreak After 2 Diagnosed In China – Hospital On Lockdown
    Fears Of Pneumonic Plague Outbreak After 2 Diagnosed In China – Hospital On Lockdown

    Chinese authorities announced Tuesday that two people have been diagnosed with pneumonic plague at a hospital in Beijing yes, as in the ‘Black Death’ which wiped out some 50 million of the world’s population during the Middle Ages

    Alarmingly, it’s the second instance of the plague hitting the region in a matter of months, after last May a Mongolian couple died from bubonic plague after consuming the raw kidney of a marmot, based on a local folk practice.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Bubonic plague bacteria from a January 2003 case, via the CDC/FOX News.

    Officials say the two in this latest case also came from a remote area of Inner Mongolia in Northern China. To mitigate panic, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention has reportedly issued a public advisory to Beijing residents telling them the potential for contacting the disease is “extremely low,” according to The New York Times. Though considering this is literally the plague we doubt anyone will feel reassured by such official advisories.

    The patients were quickly isolated by health officials after initial confusion over what they might be dealing with, and are reportedly being given treatment. Left untreated it will cause certain death, but some strains of the plague can be cured through careful administration of antibiotics, unavailable when it struck on a mass scale in medieval times. 

    The infected were initially treated at Beijing’s Chaoyang Hospital, which caused a special alert to go out to city health personnel and placed the emergency room under complete lockdown. China’s English news portal Caixin Global provided the following eyewitness details:

    Chaoyang Hospital, where the two patients were treated, has replaced all the chairs at its emergency room, Caixin reporters witnessed.

    The emergency room was in police blockade Monday night, people living nearby the hospital told Caixin. A resident medical school student at Chaoyang Hospital told Caixin that he received emergency notice from the school, asking them not to go to the emergency room in the following weeks.

    Chaoyang Hospital told local media that the two patients have been transferred to another hospital, without disclosing the name of the hospital.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Chaoyang Hospital in Beijing’s Chaoyang district went under lockdown after two people came in with the plague. Image source: Caixin

    And FOX has further details as follows:

    Dr. Li Jifeng at Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, in the district where the patients sought treatment, said they came to the hospital on Nov. 3 but officials have not confirmed the claim, The Times reported.

    Dr. Li wrote on WeChat that she treated a middle-aged man who had a persistent fever and cough, which his wife had also contracted.

    “I couldn’t guess what pathogen caused this pneumonia. I only knew it was rare,” she wrote.

    The pneumonic form of the plague is considered the most virulent and deadly, causing severe lung infection via bacterium, transmitted from small mammals and their fleas. The other forms are bubonic and septicemic the former cause swollen lymph nodes and the latter infects the blood.

    From 2010 to 2015, the World Health Organization reported a total of 3248 cases worldwide, including 584 deaths; however, there are concerns that not all cases have been reported, with China recently coming under fire over allegations of possibly withholding its true number of cases.

    The WHO has now categorized the plague as a ‘re-emerging disease’ given that some 50,000 human cases have been recorded in the past two decades. 


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 19:10

  • The Growing Threat Of Water Wars
    The Growing Threat Of Water Wars

    Authored by Jayati Ghosh via Project Syndicate,

    In 2015, United Nations member states adopted the Sustainable Development Goals, which include an imperative to “ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.” Yet, in the last four years, matters have deteriorated significantly.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The dangers of environmental pollution receive a lot of attention nowadays, particularly in the developing world, and with good reason. Air quality indices are dismal and worsening in many places, with India, in particular, facing an acute public-health emergency. But as serious as the pollution problem is, it must not be allowed to obscure another incipient environmental catastrophe, and potential source of future conflict: lack of access to clean water.

    We may live on a “blue planet,” but less than 3% of all of our water is fresh, and much of it is inaccessible (for example, because it is locked in glaciers). Since 1960, the amount of available fresh water per capita has declined by more than half, leaving over 40% of the world’s population facing water stress. By 2030, demand for fresh water will exceed supply by an estimated 40%.

    With nearly two-thirds of fresh water coming from rivers and lakes that cross national borders, intensifying water stress fuels a vicious circle, in which countries compete for supplies, leading to greater stress and more competition. Today, hundreds of international water agreements are coming under pressure.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    China, India, and Bangladesh are locked in a dispute over the Brahmaputra, one of Asia’s largest rivers, with China and India actively constructing dams that have raised fears of water diversion. India’s government has used water-flow diversion to punish Pakistan for terrorist attacks. Dam-building on the Nile by Ethiopia has raised the ire of downstream Egypt.

    And cross-border conflicts are just the beginning. Water-related tensions are on the rise within countries as well, between rural and urban communities, and among agricultural, industrial, and household consumers. Last year, water scarcity fueled conflicts in parts of eastern Africa, such as Kenya, which has a history of tribal clashes over access to water.

    In fact, there are long histories of conflict over the waters of many major rivers, including the Nile, the Amazon, the Mekong, and the Danube. But the severity and frequency of such conflicts are set to increase, as climate change alters rainfall patterns, leading to more frequent, intense, and prolonged droughts and floods.

    Making matters worse, dwindling water reserves are increasingly contaminated by industrial pollutants, plastics and other refuse, and human waste. In middle-income countries, less than one-third of wastewater is treated; in low-income countries, the share is much smaller. Roughly 1.8 billion people get their drinking water from feces-contaminated sources. The depletion of aquifers and inadequate investment in water infrastructure are exacerbating these problems.

    Water stress affects everyone, but the agricultural sector – which accounts for 70% of all water consumption globally, and as much as 90% in the least-developed countries – is particularly vulnerable to constrained supplies. Lack of water makes it difficult to keep livestock, since every drop has to be preserved for crops or human consumption.

    Urban areas are also headed for disaster. Last year, Cape Town, South Africa, faced such severe water shortages that it began preparations for a “day zero,” when the municipal water supply would be shut off. (Thanks to supply restrictions and other government measures, that day never came.) Similarly, Mexico City has struggled with a water crisis for years.

    Indian metropolises are lurching toward even bigger catastrophes. A 2018 government report warned that 21 cities (including the capital, Delhi, and the information-technology hub Bengaluru) would reach zero groundwater levels by next year, affecting at least 100 million people.

    As with climate change, the most severe consequences of water stress disproportionately affect those in the world’s poorest regions – especially Africa and South and Central Asia – who contributed least to the problem. In one part of rural Maharashtra, India, women and girls walk up to 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) per day to collect drinking water. In other villages, as local wells run dry, households have had to designate a member to be on full-time water-collection duty. Wealthier families might pay someone else to do the job, but most households do not have that luxury.

    Meanwhile, the advanced economies not only avoid many of the consequences of water stress (at least for now); they also maintain the lifestyle excesses that have propelled climate change and environmental degradation, including water depletion. Rice cultivation is often cited as a major water guzzler, but a kilo (2.2 pounds) of beef requires five times more water to produce than a kilo of rice, and 130 times more than a kilo of potatoes. And since agricultural crops account for a significant share of many developing countries’ exports, these countries are, in a sense, exporting the limited supply of water they have.

    Moreover, current land grabs in Africa are actually about water, with foreign investors targeting areas with big rivers, large lakes, wetlands, and groundwater, and thus with high agricultural potential and biogenetic value. (As it stands, less than 10% of Africa’s irrigation potential is being used.)

    In 2015, United Nations member states adopted the Sustainable Development Goals, which include an imperative to “ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.” Yet, in the last four years, matters have deteriorated significantly. The international community might be able to fool itself for a while – as it has proved so adept at doing, not least with regard to environmental destruction – but the threat of water wars is only drawing nearer. For many in Africa, Asia, and elsewhere, it has already arrived.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 18:50

  • "Apocalyptic Flooding": Stunning Images As Venice Endures 2nd Highest Tide In History
    “Apocalyptic Flooding”: Stunning Images As Venice Endures 2nd Highest Tide In History

    Stunning images have come out of the historic city of Venice, which has been hit with catastrophic floods due to the second-highest tide recorded in the city’s history bringing water levels high over city squares and foot paths, also amid extreme winds and rain.

    Mayor Brugnaro has declared a state of emergency after the Tuesday tide peaked at just over 6-feet during the evening. The only time in recorded history the waters reached that high was in 1966, when the tide reached nearly six-and-a-half feet. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    St. Mark’s Square, Getty Image.

    Early Wednesday about 50% of the city had been reported flooded by the unusual tide, and some reports into overnight Wednesday say 85% is now under water, given it sits at sea level as it was famously built on a network of over 100 small islands in a lagoon on the Adriatic Sea, and is connected by canals. This impacts a total of 53,000 residents, at a low point in the tourism cycle.

    At least two people have died, one described as an elderly man who was electrocuted when he attempted to operate electric pumps at his home, according to Italian authorities, following a mass power outage across much of the city.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Extreme winds have also knocked out some communications and have made accessible transport difficult for storm-battered residents.

    Venetian authorities say high tides of 140cm (55 inches) or more, referred to in Italian as “acqua alta”, usually take place in winter months. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Head clergyman over St Mark’s Basilica, Francesco Moraglia, told reporters: “I have never seen something like what I saw yesterday afternoon [Tuesday] at St. Mark’s square. There were waves as if we were at the beach.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Water has entered churches and historic sites. Getty Image.

    Mayor Brugnaro has warned the flooding “is going to leave an indelible wound” on Venice, as efforts are underway to protect homes, property, and world heritage sites. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Image source: Beanotown Photography

    “We are not just talking about calculating the damages, but of the very future of the city,” Brugnaro said. “Because the population drain also is a result of this.”

    The governor of the region, Luca Zaia, also described: “We faced a total and apocalyptic flood, I will not exaggerate in words, but 80% of the city is under water. Unimaginable damage has been done.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In some parts of the city residents were seen “swimming for their lives” according to eyewitness accounts. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Getty Image

    Plans have long been in place for a massive emergency protection project that would see a series of 78 ‘floating gates’ set up around the city to control the impact of high tides, but it’s been beset by cost-related delays.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 18:30

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 13th November 2019

  • Europe On A Geopolitical Fault Line
    Europe On A Geopolitical Fault Line

    Authored by Ana Palacio via Project Syndicate,

    China has begun to build a parallel international order, centered on itself. If the European Union aids in its construction – even just by positioning itself on the fault line between China and the United States – it risks toppling key pillars of its own edifice and, eventually, collapsing altogether.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Two months ago, in his address to the United Nations General Assembly, UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed his fear that a “Great Fracture” could split the international order into two “separate and competing worlds,” one dominated by the United States and the other by China. His fear is not only justified; the fissure he dreads has already formed, and it is getting wider.

    After Deng Xiaoping launched his “reform and opening up” policy in 1978, the conventional wisdom in the West was that China’s integration into the global economy would naturally bring about domestic social and political change. The end of the Cold War – an apparent victory for the US-led liberal international order – reinforced this belief, and the West largely pursued a policy of engagement with China. After China became a member of the World Trade Organization in 2001, this process accelerated, with Western companies and investment pouring into the country, and cheap manufactured products flowing out of it.

    As China’s role in global value chains grew, its problematic trade practices – from dumping excessively low-cost goods in Western markets to failing to protect intellectual-property rights – were increasingly distortionary. Yet few so much as batted an eye. No one, it seemed, wanted to jeopardize the profits brought by cheap Chinese manufacturing, or the promise of access to the massive Chinese market. In any case, the thinking went, the problems would resolve themselves, because economic engagement and growth would soon produce a flourishing Chinese middle class that would propel domestic liberalization.

    This was, it is now clear, magical thinking. In fact, China has changed the international system much more than the system has changed China.

    Today, the Communist Party of China is more powerful than ever, bolstered by a far-reaching artificial intelligence-driven surveillance apparatus and the enduring dominance of state-owned enterprises. President Xi Jinping is set for a protracted – even lifelong – tenure. And, as US President Donald Trump has learned during his ill-fated trade war, wringing concessions out of China is more difficult than ever.

    Meanwhile, the rules-based international order limps along, without vitality or purpose. Emerging and developing economies are frustrated by the lack of effort to bring institutional arrangements in line with new economic realities. The advanced economies, for their part, are grappling with a backlash against globalization that has not only weakened their support for trade liberalization and international cooperation, but also shaken their democracies. The US has gradually withdrawn from global leadership.

    As a result, international relations have become largely transactional, with ad hoc deals replacing holistic cooperative solutions. Institutions and agreements are becoming shallower and more informal. Values, rules, and norms are increasingly regarded as quaint and impractical.

    This has produced a golden opportunity for China to begin constructing a parallel system, centered on itself. To that end, it has created institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank, both of which mimic existing international structures. And it has pursued the sprawling Belt and Road Initiative – an obvious attempt to position itself as a new Middle Kingdom.

    Yet many, including in Europe, are not particularly concerned about the emergence of this parallel system. So long as it brings ready access to project finance, it’s fine with them. As Europe becomes increasingly alienated from the US, many Europeans also believe that they can improve their strategic position by situating themselves on the frontier between the two emerging worlds.

    That strategy may offer some advantages, including opportunities for arbitrage. But as anyone who lives on a fault line knows, there are also formidable risks: friction between the two sides is bound to shake the foundations of whatever is positioned atop the boundary.

    This is especially true for the European Union, which is built on a commitment to cooperation, shared values, and the rule of law. If the EU aids in building a parallel structure that contradicts its core values, particularly the centrality of individual rights, it risks severing its meta-political moorings – the beliefs to which its worldview is tethered. A Europe adrift will eventually sink.

    The solution is not for Europe simply to take America’s “side,” and turn its back on China. (That, too, would run counter to European values.) Rather, the EU must heed Guterres’s call to “do everything possible to maintain a universal system” in which all actors, including China and the US, follow the same rules.

    In this sense, the recent joint statement by Xi and French President Emmanuel Macron reaffirming their strong support for the Paris climate agreement is promising, as is Europe’s growing recognition that China is not only a partner or economic competitor, but also a “systemic rival.” But this is only a start. Europe needs a robust China strategy that recognizes the profound, often subtle challenges that the country’s rise poses, mitigates the associated risks, and seizes relevant opportunities.

    Achieving this will require perspective and discipline, neither of which comes naturally to the EU. But there is no other choice. As soon as Europe stops defending the rule of law and democratic values, its identity – and its future – will begin to crumble.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/13/2019 – 02:00

  • Brandon Smith: Trump Impeachment And The Civil War Scenario
    Brandon Smith: Trump Impeachment And The Civil War Scenario

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    There has been a lot of talk the past year about a civil war in the US, so much so that even the mainstream media is pushing the concept lately. A poll from Rasmussen in 2018 claimed that 31% of US voters believed that America would see a second civil war within the next five years. A more recent poll from The Institute Of Politics And Public Service shows that 7 out of 10 voters believe the US is two-thirds of the way towards civil war.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    New talk of “impeachment” over the Ukraine issue has stirred the soup even further as some conservatives argue that if Trump is removed from office a war will erupt.

    I want to be absolutely clear and state that I remain highly skeptical that the impeachment circus is anything more than another distraction for the public, and I believe that it will go nowhere (just like Russiagate).  That said I do think there is a marginal chance of a 4th Gen play here by the globalists. A civil war, if directed and manipulated in the right way, could benefit the elites greatly as long as it’s combined with a few other ingredients.

    First, we have to understand what the real situation here is, though. As my readers are well aware, I predicted well before the 2016 election that Trump as president would be the perfect scapegoat for the implosion of the ‘Everything Bubble’. That implosion is happening in nearly all fundamental economic indicators right now, as I outlined in my last article. There are two questions to consider at this point: Will stock markets follow fundamentals down before the 2020 election?  And, if stocks remain high, will it even matter with the rest of the system tumbling into recession?

    In January of 2016 at during his election campaign, Donald Trump said that the US economy was ‘In a bubble he feared would burst and he did not want to deal with a financial collapse if he was elected to the White House.’  He called on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and stop propping up the fake markets.

    In 2019, Trump has attached his administration completely to the performance of markets with endless Twitter comments, taking full credit for the financial bubble that he once criticized.  He has also now called for the Fed to bring interest rates down to zero to artificially support the economy once again (Obviously we have to ask the big question – If this is the “greatest US economy ever”, then why would Trump want the Fed to introduce more stimulus to prop it up?). I believe this bizarre behavior is entirely deliberate on Trump’s part and that he intends to take the blame for the ongoing crash. If stocks fall along with the rest of the economy by the end of 2020, it is unlikely that the globalists plan to keep him around for a second term. His job acting as a scapegoat for the crisis the central banks created will be accomplished.

    Second, my readers are also aware that I have outlined the connections between Trump and the globalists, including how a large part of his fortune and his image was saved by a bailout from the Rothschild family during the 1990’s. Wilber Ross, the Rothchild agent who arranged the deal, is now Trump’s Commerce Secretary. Ross’ presence in Trump’s cabinet along with numerous other elites, such as Pompeo, Mnuchin, Lightheizer, Kudlow and a host of other Council on Foreign Relations members indicates that Trump is and probably always has been controlled opposition. When one elite cycles out of Trump’s cabinet, another one just takes his place.

    I hear the argument often that the supposed impeachment proceedings are “proof” that the globalists are trying to destroy Trump. This is clearly nonsense, as Trump continues to work closely with such elites on a daily basis. The more likely explanation is that, like Russiagate, the impeachment itself is a farce designed to keep the American public sharply divided and ready to go to war at a moment’s notice. In fact, the chances of the Ukraine debacle blowing back on Joe Biden and his campaign in the Democratic Primaries are high.

    Biden is obviously NOT the candidate that the elites intend to run on the Democrat side, and the Ukraine theater creates a rationale for him to bow out while also conjuring ever more anger on both sides of the political canyon. But does this mean that Trump will not be impeached? Not necessarily…

    Trump is in the position he is in for a reason.  Trump is a useful pawn in a number of ways as long as his influence over conservatives remains strong and his position can be exploited to maximum effect. For example, in my most likely scenario, a market crash swiftly follows the current plunge in fundamentals before the 2020 election. This essentially ensures Trump’s defeat in November, while his conservative supporters and conservative principles in general take the blame for the disaster. However, what if the elites are seeking to add even more chaos to the cauldron?

    An impeachment leading into the election, whether successful or not, could be used to enrage conservatives and trigger a violent reaction against the Democrats specifically. If Trump loses the election or never makes it to the election due to impeachment, a host of outcomes will occur that are beneficial to the globalists even though Trump is one of their puppets:

    1) The impeachment scenario will make rabid leftists feel vindicated in their insane behavior the past few years. It will reward them and inspire them to act even crazier.

    2) Conservatives could be pushed over the edge into direct action, but unfortunately, if this direct action is aimed haphazardly at the political left and democrats, conservatives will have been conned. The globalists WANT us fighting over a meaningless puppet like Trump. They WANT us to direct our anger at the Democrats instead of at them.

    3) If we are stupid enough to fight a war over Trump, this will lead to some detrimental results. Conservatives, though feeling justified in their actions, will look like villains, fighting to protect a leader that destroyed the US economy causing untold public suffering, as well as a leader that most of the world will see as personally corrupt. Trump is not a resilient long term inspiration for a rebellion, he’s not even a good short term inspiration.

    4) Rebellions need focus and a set of strong principles and virtues in order to stay alive. If they are freedom fighters, then the establishment will seek to make them look like they are not freedom fighters, but self serving terrorists or agents of a foreign power. This process has already been started by the elites. Trump is the tool for co-option of the liberty movement. Impeachment could be a trigger for luring the movement to rebel under false pretenses and attack the wrong people (the leftists are only a symptom of the disease, the globalists ARE the disease).

    5) A civil war that does not seek to target the globalists as the root problem could be easily molded by the globalists into a scapegoat for whatever calamity they desire. An economic crash under Trump would attach a lot of peripheral blame to conservatives. But, an economic crash and a civil war over Trump’s impeachment would attach ALL the blame to conservatives. Conservatives become the bad guys of the age, the people that almost ended the world, the people that future generations will be taught to despise as examples of the “evils of nationalism and populism”.

    6) A war fought in the name of faulty principles and a failed leader would provide a reason for the globalists to pursue an international response to the crisis. And again, this would not look like an invasion of American sovereignty, but a global attempt to “keep the peace”.

    So what is the solution? Is this a Catch-22 that conservatives cannot escape from? I’ve long held that a war between liberty activists and the globalists is inevitable, if not long overdue. The globalists know that this war is coming, as well. 4th Generation Warfare tactics dictate that the globalists will try to trick liberty activists into fighting this war on their terms. That is to say, the globalists will seek to turn us (their opponents) into unwitting allies. The Trump impeachment strategy could very well provide them with that kind of psychological leverage.

    It would be seen by many conservatives as a Democratic party coup and a violation of the constitution. With leftist activists so viciously cult-like and so far beyond all logic or reason, the political left and political right might end up shooting at each other anyway. The issue is the narrative under which this occurs.

    If liberty activists stay focused on the primary objective (removing the globalists from power), instead of being lured into focusing all their energy on the Democrats, then the scenario changes. If conservatives remain skeptical and critical of Trump’s associations and activities, this makes it difficult for the elites to paint us as “Trump’s brownshirts”. Certain people within the liberty movement have not been helpful in this regard; blindly defending Trump at every turn no matter how many elites he brings into his cabinet or how many times he takes credit for the economic bubble. Some of these people have indeed called for a civil war in the name of stopping a Trump impeachment. They have become useful idiots for the globalist agenda.

    If a war is fought, it must be over a concrete set of contentions. If a Democrat enters the White House after the 2020 election and attempts to institute major gun control and gun confiscation measures, then this is a perfectly solid reason to fight. If they try to enforce carbon restrictions that would destroy what’s left of our economy and cause suffering among the public, then this is another good reason to fight. If they try to legislate even more socialist programs, usurping constitutional parameters and taxing the populace into perpetual poverty, then yes, we should fight. But Trump? No, Trump is a pied piper, not a leader or a rationale for civil war.

    Now, I realize that the above scenario I describe is extreme, but I do see it as a possibility, so it’s important to recognize that it is there waiting to be used by the establishment against us. That said, there are other more likely outcomes.

    The impeachment could rally conservatives to vote in larger numbers in 2020, and if the markets hold out through the year, then Trump is probably slated for a second term. A second term would indicate that the elites need Trump for another event (perhaps a regional war) on top of the market crash, which would take place directly after Trump’s reelection.

    The Ukraine issue might merely be designed to undermine Joe Biden’s candidacy, paving the way for either Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren (I don’t see another serious run by Hillary Clinton in the cards, Bloomberg is a joke even among many Democrats and I still predict Elizabeth Warren will be the Dem candidate in 2020). If the markets crash, or if the currently crashing fundamentals hit main street hard enough, then Trump will be ousted and the Dems will take over, blaming him and conservatives for every financial mess for the next four years (or more).

    At this point in the game, it’s hard to say which option the globalists will use. It is vital, though, that we remember that the impeachment is a farce in more ways than one. The target is not Trump, the target is us.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 23:45

  • Beijing Slams US 'Hypocrisy' Over Soaring HK Violence As Students Launch Arrows At Police
    Beijing Slams US ‘Hypocrisy’ Over Soaring HK Violence As Students Launch Arrows At Police

    In Beijing’s own condemnation of ‘moderate rebels’ moment, the Chinese foreign ministry on Tuesday slammed the United States and Britain for rank hypocrisy for their failure to condemn the serious escalation in protest violence this week, after a pro-mainland man was set on fire and after a police officer shot a protester in separate incidents. And overnight Tuesday students at the city’s main public university were filmed attacking police with bows and arrows.

    Describing prior events on Monday as deeply disturbing – foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said “their lip service to justice has shown their double standards and ill intentions”.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Still frame of Sky News footage showing protesters using bows and arrows against police. 

    This after the State Department merely expressed “grave concern” and condemned the violence on “all sides” on a day in which a gruesome viral video showed a pro-mainland man being doused in combustible liquid, then set on fire as he argued with demonstrators over their attempting to shut down a nearby train station.

    After one of the most horrifying scenes of violence by a mob of Hong Kong pro-independence protesters to have played out after months of unrest, Beijing is outraged that the US and Britain again managed to turn the spotlight back on China.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said, “We urge Beijing to honor the commitments it made in the Sino-British Joint Declaration,” which includes protecting “the freedoms of expression and peaceful assembly – core values that we share with Hong Kong,” according to the official statement. 

    This week has witnessed large sectors of the city gridlocked and essentially shut down due demonstrators attacking public transportation and blocking roads. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    A regular feature of the HK anti-China protests has been attacks on public transport. Image via CNN.

    Many observers have noticed violence and clashes with police have gotten so fierce, that Hong Kong riots appear to have entered an “end game” of sorts, given Monday marked one of the most violent episodes to take place in weeks, amid continued disruptions of the morning commute as HK’s MTR public transit shut down several stations.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And through Tuesday evening severe clashes with police raged in and around the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) campus, which involved students raiding sports facilities to obtain weapons such as javelins and bows & arrows, reportedly being used against police

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Image via The Times: “Protesters raided a sport equipment warehouse to find new weapons for their battles with police.”

    According to London’s The Times:

    Students armed with javelins and bows and arrows fought police at the Chinese University of Hong Kong today amid official warnings that the territory was “on the brink of total breakdown”.

    The scenes, mirrored at other campuses in the city, marked a drastic escalation in the protests, which began in June. Yesterday police shot a protester at close range and a man was doused with petrol and set on fire by demonstrators.

    Upset that police had encroached on their campuses yesterday, university students set up barricades early today.

    And elsewhere anti-Beijing social media accounts also circulated images of students raiding a campus warehouse and staging bows, arrows, and javelins to use against invading security forces. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Earlier on Tuesday HK police warned a total collapse looks imminent as pitched battles between rioters and police continue across the city.

    Sky News ran footage Tuesday night of student protesters firing arrows at police front lines:

    “Over the past two days, our society has been pushed to the brink of a total breakdown as rioters went on a rampage,” Kong Wing-cheung, a senior police superintendent, said in a press conference.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The same day Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam condemned the anti-Beijing protesters as the “enemy of the people”.

    Indeed as newly published aerial footage showing the chaotic situation at CUHK campus confirms, parts of the city are becoming a war zone, as protesters and police increasingly lack restraint and are now deploying deadly weapons. 

    Things are about to get even uglier at the Chinese University HK campus, and we don’t have to wonder for a moment what police in America would do if bows and arrows were launched at them. It appears the gloves are fast coming off.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 23:25

  • How To Crush A Bankers' Dictatorship: A Lesson From 1933
    How To Crush A Bankers’ Dictatorship: A Lesson From 1933

    Authored by Matthew Ehret via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The western media has been hit with warnings of “financial Armageddon” and the need for a “global hegemonic synthetic currency” to replace the collapsing US dollar under a new system of green finance. These statements have been made by former and current Bank of England Governors Mark Carney and Mervyn King respectively and should not be ignored as the world sits atop the largest financial bubble in human history reminiscent of the 1929 bubble that was triggered on black Friday in the USA which unleashed a great depression across Europe and America.

    While I’m not arguing that a systemic change is not vital to protect people from the effects of a general meltdown of the $1.2 trillion derivatives bubble sometimes called “the western banking system”, what such central bankers are proposing is a poison more deadly than the disease they promise to cure.

    In principle, the world crisis, is no different from the artificially manufactured crises which the world faced in 1923 when unpayable Versailles debts were heaved onto a beaten Germany, which I elaborated upon in my previous report. It is also no different from the nature of the folly that unleashed unbounded speculation during the “roaring 1920s” which led to the bank-run and general meltdown. Similarly, the solutions being proposed to put out the fire by those same arsonists who lit the matches today are identical to what the world faced in 1933 as a “central bankers” solution for the world depression.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    How the 1929 Crash was Manufactured

    While everyone knows that the 1929 market crash unleashed four years of hell in America which quickly spread across Europe under the great depression, not many people have realized that this was not inevitable, but rather a controlled blowout.

    The bubbles of the 1920s were unleashed with the early death of President William Harding in 1923 and grew under the careful guidance of JP Morgan’s President Coolidge and financier Andrew Mellon (Treasury Secretary) who de-regulated the banks, imposed austerity onto the country, and cooked up a scheme for Broker loans allowing speculators to borrow 90% on their stock. Wall Street was deregulated, investments into the real economy were halted during the 1920s and insanity became the norm. In 1925 broker loans totalled $1.5 billion and grew to $2.6 billion in 1926 and hit $5.7 billion by the end of 1927. By 1928, the stock market was overvalued fourfold!

    When the bubble was sufficiently inflated, a moment was decided upon to coordinate a mass “calling in” of the broker loans. Predictably, no one could pay them resulting in a collapse of the markets. Those “in the know” cleaned up with JP Morgan’s “preferred clients”, and other financial behemoths selling before the crash and then buying up the physical assets of America for pennies on the dollar. One notable person who made his fortune in this manner was Prescott Bush of Brown Brothers Harriman, who went onto bailout a bankrupt Nazi party in 1932. These financiers had a tight allegiance with the City of London and coordinated their operations through the private central banking system of America’s Federal Reserve and Bank of International Settlements.

    The Living Hell that was the Great Depression

    Throughout the Great depression, the population was pushed to its limits making America highly susceptible to fascism as unemployment skyrocketed to 25%, industrial capacity collapsed by 70%, and agricultural prices collapsed far below the cost of production accelerating foreclosures and suicide. Life savings were lost as 4000 banks failed.

    This despair was replicated across Europe and Canada with eugenics-loving fascists gaining popularity across the board. England saw the rise of Sir Oswald Mosley’s British Union of Fascists in 1932, English Canada had its own fascist solution with the Rhodes Scholar “Fabian Society” League of Social Reconstruction (which later took over the Liberal Party) calling for the “scientific management of society”. Time magazine had featured Il Duce over 6 times by 1932 and people were being told by that corporate fascism was the economic solution to all of America’s economic woes.

    In the midst of the crisis, the City of London removed itself from the gold standard in 1931 which was a crippling blow to the USA, as it resulted in a flight of gold from America causing a deeper contraction of the money supply and thus inability to respond to the depression. British goods simultaneously swamped the USA crushing what little production was left.

    It was in this atmosphere that one of the least understood battles unfolded in 1933.

    1932: A Bankers’ Dictatorship is Attempted

    In Germany, a surprise victory of Gen. Kurt Schleicher caused the defeat of the London-directed Nazi party in December 1932 threatening to break Germany free of Central Bank tyranny. A few weeks before Schleicher’s victory, Franklin Roosevelt won the presidency in America threatening to regulate the private banks and assert national sovereignty over finance.

    Seeing their plans for global fascism slipping away, the City of London announced that a new global system controlled by Central Banks had to be created post haste. Their objective was to use the economic crisis as an excuse to remove from nation states any power over monetary policy, while enhancing the power of Independent Central Banks as enforcers of “balanced global budgets”. elaborate

    In December 1932, an economic conference “to stabilize the world economy” was organized by the League of Nations under the guidance of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and Bank of England. The BIS was set up as “the Central Bank of Central Banks” in 1930 in order to facilitate WWI debt repayments and was a vital instrument for funding Nazi Germany- long after WWII began. The London Economic Conference brought together 64 nations of the world under a controlled environment chaired by the British Prime Minister and opened by the King himself.

    A resolution passed by the Conference’s Monetary Committee stated:

    “The conference considers it to be essential, in order to provide an international gold standard with the necessary mechanism for satisfactory working, that independent Central Banks, with requisite powers and freedom to carry out an appropriate currency and credit policy, should be created in such developed countries as have not at present an adequate central banking institution” and that “the conference wish to reaffirm the great utility of close and continuous cooperation between Central Banks. The Bank of International Settlements should play an increasingly important part not only by improving contact, but also as an instrument for common action.”

    Echoing Carney’s current fixation with “mathematical equilibrium”, the resolutions stated that the new global gold standard controlled by central banks was needed “to maintain a fundamental equilibrium in the balance of payments” of countries. The idea was to deprive nation states of their power to generate and direct credit for their own development.

    FDR Torpedoes the London Conference

    Chancellor Schleicher’s resistance to a bankers’ dictatorship was resolved by a “soft coup” ousting the patriotic leader in favor of Adolph Hitler (under the control of a Bank of England toy named Hjalmar Schacht) in January 1933 with Schleicher assassinated the following year. In America, an assassination attempt on Roosevelt was thwarted on February 15, 1933 when a woman knocked the gun out of the hand of an anarchist-freemason in Miami resulting in the death of Chicago’s Mayor Cermak (1).

    Without FDR’s dead body, the London conference met an insurmountable barrier, as FDR refused to permit any American cooperation. Roosevelt recognized the necessity for a new international system, but he also knew that it had to be organized by sovereign nation states subservient to the general welfare of the people and not central banks dedicated to the welfare of the oligarchy. Before any international changes could occur, nation states castrated from the effects of the depression had to first recover economically in order to stay above the power of the financiers.

    By May 1933, the London Conference crumbled when FDR complained that the conference’s inability to address the real issues of the crisis is “a catastrophe amounting to a world tragedy” and that fixation with short term stability were “old fetishes of so-called international bankers”. FDR continued “The United States seeks the kind of dollar which a generation hence will have the same purchasing and debt paying power as the dollar value we hope to attain in the near future. That objective means more to the good of other nations than a fixed ratio for a month or two. Exchange rate fixing is not the true answer.”

    The British drafted an official statement saying “the American statement on stabilization rendered it entirely useless to continue the conference.”

    FDR’s War on Wall Street

    The new president laid down the gauntlet in his inaugural speech on March 4th saying: 

    “The money-changers have fled from their high seats in the temple of our civilization. We may now restore that temple to the ancient truths. The measure of the restoration lies in the extent to which we apply social values more noble than mere monetary profit”.

    FDR declared a war on Wall Street on several levels, beginning with his support of the Pecorra Commission which sent thousands of bankers to prison, and exposed the criminal activities of the top tier of Wall Street’s power structure who manipulated the depression, buying political offices and pushing fascism. Ferdinand Pecorra who ran the commission called out the deep state when he said “this small group of highly placed financiers, controlling the very springs of economic activity, holds more real power than any similar group in the United States.”

    Pecorra’s highly publicized success empowered FDR to impose sweeping regulation in the form of 1) Glass-Steagall bank separation, 2) bankruptcy re-organization and 3) the creation of the Security Exchange Commission to oversee Wall Street. Most importantly, FDR disempowered the London-controlled Federal Reserve by installing his own man as Chair (Industrialist Mariner Eccles) who forced it to obey national commands for the first time since 1913, while creating an “alternative” lending mechanism outside of Fed control called the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC) which became the number one lender to infrastructure in America throughout the 1930s.

    One of the most controversial policies for which FDR is demonized today was his abolishment of the gold standard. The gold standard itself constricted the money supply to a strict exchange of gold per paper dollar, thus preventing the construction of internal improvements needed to revive industrial capacity and put the millions of unemployed back to work for which no financial resources existed. It’s manipulation by international financiers made it a weapon of destruction rather than creation at this time. Since commodity prices had fallen lower than the costs of production, it was vital to increase the price of goods under a form of “controlled inflation” so that factories and farms could become solvent and unfortunately the gold standard held that back. FDR imposed protective tariffs to favor agro-industrial recovery on all fronts ending years of rapacious free trade.

    FDR stated his political-economic philosophy in 1934: 

    “the old fallacious notion of the bankers on the one side and the government on the other side, as being more or less equal and independent units, has passed away. Government by the necessity of things must be the leader, must be the judge, of the conflicting interests of all groups in the community, including bankers.”

    The Real New Deal

    Once liberated from the shackles of the central banks, FDR and his allies were able to start a genuine recovery by restoring confidence in banking. Within 31 days of his bank holiday, 75% of banks were operational and the FDIC was created to insure deposits. Four million people were given immediate work, and hundreds of libraries, schools and hospitals were built and staffed- All funded through the RFC. FDR’s first fireside chat was vital in rebuilding confidence in the government and banks, serving even today as a strong lesson in banking which central bankers don’t want you to learn about.

    From 1933-1939, 45 000 infrastructure projects were built. The many “local” projects were governed, like China’s Belt and Road Initiative today, under a “grand design” which FDR termed the “Four Quarters” featuring zones of megaprojects such as the Tennessee Valley Authority area in the south east, the Columbia River Treaty zone on the northwest, the St Laurence Seaway zone on the North east, and Hoover Dam/Colorado zone on the Southwest. These projects were transformative in ways money could never measure as the Tennessee area’s literacy rose from 20% in 1932 to 80% in 1950, and racist backwater holes of the south became the bedrock for America’s aerospace industry due to the abundant and cheap hydropower.

    Wall Street Sabotages the New Deal

    Those who criticize the New Deal today ignore the fact that its failures have more to do with Wall Street sabotage than anything intrinsic to the program. For example, JP Morgan tool Lewis Douglass (U.S. Budget Director) forced the closure of the Civil Works Administration in 1934 resulting in the firing of all 4 million workers.

    Wall Street did everything it could to choke the economy at every turn. In 1931, NY banks loans to the real economy amounted to $38.1 billion which dropped to only $20.3 billion by 1935. Where NY banks had 29% of their funds in US bonds and securities in 1929, this had risen to 58% which cut off the government from being able to issue productive credit to the real economy.

    When, in 1937, FDR’s Treasury Secretary persuaded him to cancel public works to see if the economy “could stand on its own two feet”, Wall Street pulled credit out of the economy collapsing the Industrial production index from 110 to 85 erasing seven years’ worth of gain, while steel fell from 80% capacity back to depression levels of 19%. Two million jobs were lost and the Dow Jones lost 39% of its value. This was no different from kicking the crutches out from a patient in rehabilitation and it was not lost on anyone that those doing the kicking were openly supporting Fascism in Europe. Bush patriarch Prescott Bush, then representing Brown Brothers Harriman was found guilty for trading with the enemy in 1942!

    Coup Attempt in America Thwarted

    The bankers didn’t limit themselves to financial sabotage during this time, but also attempted a fascist military coup which was exposed by Maj. Gen. Smedley Butler in his congressional testimony of November 20, 1934. Butler had testified that the plan was begun in the Summer of 1933 and organized by Wall Street financiers who tried to use him as a puppet dictator leading 500 000 American Legion members to storm the White House. As Butler spoke, those same financiers had just set up an anti-New Deal organization called the American Liberty League which fought to keep America out of the war in defense of an Anglo-Nazi fascist global government which they wished to partner with.

    The American Liberty league only changed tune when it became evident that Hitler had become a disobedient Frankenstein monster who wasn’t content in a subservient position to Britain’s idea of a New World Order. In response to the Liberty League’s agenda, FDR said “some speak of a New World Order, but it is not new and it is not order”.

    FDR’s Post-War Vision Destroyed

    While FDR’s struggle did change the course of history, his early death during the first months of his fourth term resulted in a fascist perversion of his post-war vision.

    Rather than see the IMF, World Bank or UN used as instruments for the internationalization of the New Deal principles to promote long term, low interest loans for the industrial development of former colonies, FDR’s allies were ousted from power over his dead body, and they were recaptured by the same forces who attempted to steer the world towards a Central Banking Dictatorship in 1933.

    The American Liberty League spawned into various “patriotic” anti-communist organizations which took power with the FBI and McCarthyism under the fog of the Cold War. This is the structure that Eisenhower warned about when he called out “the Military Industrial Complex” in 1960 and which John Kennedy did battle with during his 900 days as president.

    The New Silk Road as the 21st Century New Deal

    This is the structure which is out to destroy President Donald Trump out of fear that a new FDR impulse is beginning to be revived in America which may align with the 21st Century international New Deal emerging from China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Eurasian alliance. French Finance Minister Bruno LeMaire and Marc Carney have stated their fear that if the Green New Deal isn’t imposed by the west, then the New Silk Road and yuan will become the basis for the new world system.

    The Bank of England-authored Green New Deal and Synthetic Hegemonic Currency which promise to impose draconian constraints on humanity’s carrying capacity in defense of saving nature from humanity have nothing to do with Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal and they have less to do with the Bretton Woods conference of 1944. These are merely central bankers’ wet dreams for depopulation and fascism “with a democratic face” which their 1933 conference failed to achieve and can only be imposed if people remain blind to their own recent history.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 23:05

  • "Oh Cool, More Bullshit": Anonymous White House Officials Trash Book By Anonymous Ex-White House Official
    “Oh Cool, More Bullshit”: Anonymous White House Officials Trash Book By Anonymous Ex-White House Official

    We’ve reached the part in the news cycle where one can just make up anything, anywhere about anyone, and cite imaginary people as evidence. Case in point, today’s Politico report on how the blockbuster bestselling book by, well, an allegedly former White House official who to this day remains anonymous, and which allegedly provides an “unprecedented behind-the-scenes portrait of the Trump presidency from the anonymous senior official whose first words of warning about the president rocked the nation’s capital” is being received by the White House. Or at least by more anonymous people at the White House.

    While delightfully humorous in isolation, the following actual line from the Politico book report perfectly summarizes the state of modern reporting:

    Most of the officials spoke on condition of anonymity to trash the anonymous author, whose book they acknowledged they have only read about.

    The Politico report’s argument, apparently sourced to more anonymous White House officials who may or may not go on to write anonymous books of their own, which will then be reviewed by more anonymous officials, is that the “White House is breathing a big sigh of relief after the new book by an anonymous author claiming to be a senior Trump official doesn’t seem to have many new damaging details of the president’s conduct in office, according to interviews with five current White House officials.”

    All of them, of course, anonymous, because we now live in a world where one can write any narrative at all for an article – or a book – and just quote “anonymous sources” or be an “anonymous author” and still make tons of money. 

    Or maybe Americans are finally tiring of that news cycle. After all, even that liberal bastion of anti-Trumpism, the New York Times, went so far as to pan the newly released book (maybe the NYT is a Russian asset for mocking the book? Anonymous sources have yet to opine).

    These officials’ main complaint: The author is “cowardly” since the person doesn’t cite many specific examples in the book out of fear of making it easier for journalists and colleagues to discover the writer’s identity.

    And they say the book is likely to contain errors, based on the unusually secretive process by which it was written.

    “Normally, the publishers would do a pretty good fact-check on this but it’s impossible to do a fact-check if you don’t know who the person is and if you’re not citing specific stories so it’s literally the least fact-checked book ever,” said a White House official.

    There is another problem with these “shocking” tell all stories that are fabricated cover to cover (because absent fact-checking, a lack of reference to facts and actual sources, one can only assume the entire story is made up): the all too real Trump has made any “shock” value decline to zero: in this case the anonymous White House staffers “are dismissing the author’s description of President Donald Trump as cruel, incompetent, ill-tempered and a threat to the country as nothing new. Those epithets and more, they say, are present on “liberal Twitter every day,” as the official put it.”

    Indeed: if there is one thing the world has had even more than Trump’s non stop twitter barrage, it is shock stories written about Trump citing anonymous sources. .

    The Politico article then goes on in some length to speculate on the identity of the author, the same author whose Sept 5, 2018 op-ed – published ironically in the same NYT that is now deriding the book – announcing Anonymous’ “resistance” against Trump “would seem to rule out anyone who left the administration before that date.”

    Perhaps, but the way the book is written, the author could literally be anyone: after all, most of the stories are broad generalizations one can quite literally come up with while feeding the cats at 9am on a Saturday and drinking their morning coffee. And since nothing can be fact-checked, that is probably a safe assumption.

    That probably explains why one of the anonymous officials quoted by Politico, had said the book’s content was “ridiculous. I certainly heard nothing about it and I certainly would have.”

    Then again, the source is anonymous, and could have been merely fabricated by the newspaper, which brings us to the delightful irony of political “reporting” – one writes stories quoting unknown officials, opinion about shocking claims made by another unknown official.

    And whereas the public had largely learned to ignore such fake news especially in the aftermath of the Trump Russian collusion fiasco, they have now reemerged in the form of “whistleblowers” hoping to get a second life in the public arena by attempting to take down the president, with even more hearsay, innuendo and unsourced reports.

    That… or simply try to make money by taking advantage of people’s gullibility:

    Hogan Gidley, the deputy White House press secretary, also said the author was trying to profit off his or her time in the administration.

    “There are so many people trying to make a buck off of Donald Trump’s name at this point, I’ve lost count,” he said. “I find it comical that so many in the media try to claim that this person is brave and courageous when the author won’t even put their name to it. It’s completely gutless, not to mention false.”

    “It’s another PC establishment elitist who thinks they know better than the millions and millions of people who voted for Donald Trump because they were sick and tired of the swamp’s stranglehold on this country,” Gidley added, while Eli Nachmany, a former Trump White House staffer who is now a student at Harvard Law School, said the book’s revelations haven’t surprised anyone in Trump world, calling it “another low-quality book by a disgruntled individual.”

    That, incidentally, may be the most relevant take in the entire article, and for once, it is actually sourced to real, named people.

    Although our favorite line from the entire piece about a book which will be forgotten in a few weeks was the following:

    “You see the headlines and you say, ‘Oh cool, more bullshit, let’s get back to work,’” said one official.

    Which just happens to be a perfect encapsulation of what all modern political “reporting” has become.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 22:45

  • Escobar: Lula's "Back, With A Bang!" To Fight US Deep State's "Cocaine Evangelistan"
    Escobar: Lula’s “Back, With A Bang!” To Fight US Deep State’s “Cocaine Evangelistan”

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Saker blog,

    Better not mess with the former Brazilian president; Putin and Xi are his real top allies in the Global Left…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva greets his followers after his release from prison. Photo: Roberto Stuckert

    He’s back. With a bang.

    Only two days after his release from a federal prison in Curitiba, southern Brazil, following a narrow 6×5 decision by the Supreme Court, former President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva delivered a fiery, 45-minute long speech in front of the Metal Workers Union in Sao Bernardo, outside of Sao Paulo, and drawing on his unparalleled political capital, called all Brazilians to stage nothing short of a social revolution.

    When my colleagues Mauro Lopes, Paulo Leite and myself interviewed Lula at the federal prison, it was his Day 502 in a cell. By August, it was impossible to predict that release would happen on Day 580, in early November.

    His first speech to the nation after the prison saga – which is far from over – could never be solemn; in fact he promised a detailed address for the near future. What he did, in his trademark conversationalist style, was to immediately go on the offensive taking down a long list of every possible enemy in the book: those who have mired Brazil into an “anti-people agenda.” In terms of a fully improvised, passionate political address, this is already anthology material.

    Lula detailed the current “terrible conditions” for Brazilian workers. He ripped to pieces the economic program – basically a monster sell-out – of Finance Minister Paulo Guedes, a Chicago boy and Pinochetist who’s applying the same failed hardcore neoliberal prescriptions now being denounced and scorned every day in the streets of Chile.

    He detailed how the Brazilian right wing openly bet on neo-fascism, which is the form that neoliberalism recently took in Brazil. He blasted mainstream media, in the form of the so far all-powerful, ultra-reactionary Globo empire. In a stance of semiotic genius, Lula pointed to Globo’s helicopter hovering over the masses gathered for the speech, implying the organization is too cowardly to get close to him on ground level.

    And, significantly, he got right into the heart of the Bolsonaro question: the militias. It’s no secret to informed Brazilians that the Bolsonaro clan, with its origins in the Veneto, is behaving as a sort of cheap, crude, eschatological carbon copy of the Sopranos, running a system heavy on militias and supported by the Brazilian military. Lula described the president of one of the top nations in the Global South as no less than a militia leader. That will stick – all around the world.

    So much for “Lula peace and love,” which used to be one of his cherished mottos. No more conciliation. Bolsonaro now has to face real, fierce, solid opposition, and cannot run away from public debate any more.

    Lula’s prison journey has been an extraordinary liberating experience – turning a previously wounded statesman into a fearless warrior mixing the Tao with Steppenwolf (as sketched in Herman Hesse’s book). He’s free like he’s never been before – and he said so, explicitly. The question is how he will be able to muster the organizational work, the method – and have enough time to change the dire conditions for democratic opposition in Brazil. The whole Global South is watching.

    At least now the die is cast – and crystal clear: It’s social democracy against neo-fascism. Socially inclusive programs, civil society involved in setting public policy, the fight for  equality versus autocracy, state institutions linked to militias, racism and hate against all minorities. Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn, to their credit, have offered Lula their unconditional support. In contrast, Steve Bannon is losing sleep, qualifying Lula as “the poster boy of the globalist Left” across the world.

    This all goes way beyond Left Populism – as Slavoj Zizek and Chantal Mouffe, among others, have been trying to conceptualize it. Lula, assuming he remains free, is now ready to be the supreme catalyst of an integrated, progressive, “pro-people” New Global Left.

    ‘Cocaine Evangelistan’

    Now for the really nasty bits.

    I saw Lula’s speech deep into the night in snow stormed Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan’s capital, in the heart of the steppes, a land trespassed against by the greatest nomad empires in history. The temptation was to picture Lula as a fearless snow leopard roaming the devastated steppes of urban wastelands.

    Yet snow leopards, crucially, are a species threatened with extinction.

    After the speech I had serious conversations with two top interlocutors, Bern-based analyst Romulus Maya and anthropologist Piero Leirner, a crack authority on the Brazilian military. The picture they painted was realistically gloomy. Here it is, in a nutshell.

    When I visited Brasilia last August, several informed sources confirmed that the majority of the Brazilian Supreme Court is bought and paid for. After all, they de facto legitimized all the absurdities that have been taking place in Brazil since 2014. The absurdities were part of a hyper-complex, slow-motion, rolling hybrid war coup that, under the cloak of a corruption investigation, led to the dismantling of industrial national champions such as Petrobras; the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff on spurious charges; and the jailing of Lula, the work of judge, jury and executioner Sergio Moro, now Bolsonaro’s justice minister, who was completely unmasked by The Intercept’s revelations.

    The Brazilian military are all over the Supreme Court. Remember, Lula’s liberation happened after a narrow 6 to 5 score. Legally, it was impossible to keep him in prison: the Supreme Court actually bothered to read the Brazilian Constitution.

    But there are no structural changes whatsoever on the horizon. The project remains a Brazil sell-out – coupled with a thinly veiled military dictatorship. Brazil remains a lowly US colony. So Lula is out of jail essentially because this system allowed it.

    The military abide by Bolsonaro’s abysmal incompetence because he cannot even go to the toilet without permission from General Heleno, the head of the GSI, the Brazilian version of the National Security Council. On Saturday, a scared Bolsonaro asked the top military brass for help after Lula’s release. And crucially, in a tweet, he defined Lula as a “scoundrel” who was “momentarily” free.

    It’s this “momentarily” that gives away the game. Lula’s murky juridical situation is far from decided. In a harrowing but perfectly plausible short-term scenario, Lula could in fact be sent back to jail – but this time in isolation, in a maximum security federal prison, or even inside a military barracks; after all, he’s a former chief of the armed forces.

    The full focus of Lula’s defense is now to have Moro disqualified. Anyone with a brain who’s been through The Intercept’s revelations can clearly identify Moro’s corruption. If that happens, and that’s a major “if,” Lula’s already existing convictions will be declared null and void. But there are others lawsuits, eight in total. This is total lawfare territory.

    The military’s trump card is all about “terrorism” – associated with Lula and the Workers Party. If Lula, according to the harrowing scenario, is sent back to a federal prison, that could be in Brasilia, which not by accident holds the entire leadership of the PCC, or “First Command of the Capital”– the largest Brazilian criminal organization.

    Maya and Leirner have shown how the PCC is allied with the military and the US Deep State, via their asset Moro, to establish not a Pax Brasilica but what they have described as a “Cocaine Evangelistan” – complete with terrorist false flags blamed on Lula’s command.

    Leirner has exhaustively studied how the generals, for over a decade on their website, have been trying to associate the PCC with the Workers’ Party. And the association extends to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Hezbollah and the Bolivians. Yes, this all comes straight from His Masters’ Voice’s playbook.

    Lula, Putin and Xi

    With the military betting on a strategy of chaos, augmented by Lula’s immense social base all over Brazil fuming about his return to prison and the financial bubble finally burst, rendering the middle classes even poorer, the stage would be set for the ultimate toxic cocktail: social “commotion” allied with “terrorism” associated with “organized crime.”

    That’s all the military needs to launch an extensive operation to restore “order” and finally force Congress to approve the Brazilian version of the Patriot Act (five separate bills are already making their way in Congress).

    This is no conspiracy theory. This is a measure of how incendiary Brazil is at the moment, and Western mainstream media will make no effort whatsoever to explain the nasty, convoluted plot for a global audience.

    Leirner goes to the heart of the matter when he says the current system has no reason to retreat because its side is winning. They are not afraid of Brazil turning into Chile. And even if that ends up happening, they already have a culprit: Lula. Brazilian mainstream media are already releasing trial balloons – blaming Lula for the spike of the US dollar and the rise of inflation.

    Lula and the Brazilian Left should invest in a full spectrum offensive.

    The 9th BRICS summit takes place in Brazil this week. A master counter-coup would be to organize an off-the-record, extremely discreet, heavily securitized meeting among Lula, Putin and Xi Jinping, for instance in an embassy in Brasilia. Putin and Xi are Lula’s real top allies on the global stage. They have been literally waiting for Lula, as diplomats have confirmed to me over and over again.

    If Lula follows a restricted script of merely reorganizing the Left, in Brazil, Latin America and even the Global South, the military system currently in place will swallow him whole all over again. The Left is infiltrated – everywhere. Now it’s total war. Assuming Lula remains free, he most certainly won’t be allowed to run again for the presidency in 2022. But that’s no problem. He’s got to be extra-bold – and he will be. Better not mess with the Steppenwolf.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 22:25

    Tags

  • Code Brown: California Poo Situation Upgraded To 'Hot Diarrhea' Attacks; Urinating In Public OK
    Code Brown: California Poo Situation Upgraded To ‘Hot Diarrhea’ Attacks; Urinating In Public OK

    While San Francisco pays six-figure poop patrollers to keep up with the city’s fecal fiasco, Los Angeles may have to start handing out plastic ponchos.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Poo attack victim Heidi Van Tassel

    According to NBC Los Angeles‘ ‘Streets of Shame’ series, a homeless man randomly pulled a woman out of her car and hit her with a hot diarrhea attack.

    A night near the Hollywood Walk of Fame would change a woman’s life, as she was getting into her car and a homeless man sprinted across Hollywood Boulevard toward her.

    Heidi Van Tassel was parked in Hollywood after having a pleasant evening out with friends at an authentic Thai restaurant. Suddenly a man randomly pulled her out of the car, dragged her out to the middle of the street, and dumped a bucket of feces on her head, Van Tassel said and public records confirm.

    It was diarrhea. Hot liquid. I was soaked, and it was coming off my eyelashes and into my eyes,” she told NBC. “Paramedics who came to treat me said there was so much of it on me, that it looked like the man was saving it up for a month.

    “It was all inside my car because it was so much. He just kept pouring it and splattering it all over me.”

    While Heidi is now getting tested for diseases every three months and has PTSD, her attacker was arrested, charged with battery, and found mentally incompetent to stand trial. He is now back on the street.

    Meanwhile to the North, San Francisco’s incoming district attorney Chesa Boudin said upon his Saturday night election victory: “We will not prosecute cases involving quality-of-life crimes. Crimes such as public camping, offering or soliciting sex, public urination, blocking a sidewalk, etc., should not and will not be prosecuted.”

    “Many of these crimes are still being prosecuted, we have a long way to go to decriminalize poverty and homelessness,” he added, according to the Daily Caller.

    About Boudin – per the Caller:

    Boudin’s parents were members of the Weather Underground domestic terrorist group.

    Boudin “was raised in Chicago by Weather Underground leaders Bill Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn” after his parents were sent to prison on murder charges while he was a toddler, NBC News noted.

    Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders cheered Boudin’s victory in the election. “Now is the moment to fundamentally transform our racist and broken criminal justice system by ending mass incarceration, the failed war on drugs and the criminalization of poverty,” the Vermont Sen. wrote on Twitter Saturday, congratulating Boudin on his “historic victory!”

    The aristocrats! 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 22:05

    Tags

  • Does Schiff's Impeachment Lynch Mob Signal The End Of America's Two-Party Political System?
    Does Schiff’s Impeachment Lynch Mob Signal The End Of America’s Two-Party Political System?

    Authored by Robert Bridge via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    If anything good can come from the Democrat’s incessant efforts to impeach Donald Trump it will be the outgrowth, from the nurturing ‘mother of necessity,’ of a more inclusive political system that acknowledges more than just a compromised duopoly as the voice of the American people.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    With complete disregard for the consequences of their actions, the Democrat House Intelligence Committee under Adam Schiff has abandoned all pretense of democratic procedure in their effort to remove the 45th President of the United States from office.

    Indeed, the Democrats have provided the Republicans with a Machiavellian crash course on the subtle art of decadent behavior for getting what you want, which of course is ultimate political power, and to hell in a proverbial hand basket with the consequences. The Republicans have been snoozing through a game of 2D checkers, holding out hope that Sheriff Billy Barr and his deputy John Durham will round up the real criminals, while the Democrats have been playing mortal combat.

    The dark prince in this Gothic tale of diabolical, dare I say biblical, proportions is none other than Adam ‘Shifty’ Schiff, who, like Dracula in his castle dungeon, has contorted every House rule to fit the square peg of a Trump telephone call into the bolt hole of a full-blown impeachment proceeding. Niccolò Machiavelli would have been proud of his modern-day protégé.

    As if to mock the very notion of Democratic due process, whatever that means, Schiff and his torch-carrying lynch mob took their deliberations down into the dank basement, yes, the basement, of the US Capital where they have been holding secretive depositions in an effort to get some new twist on the now famous phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky back in June. But why all the cloak and dagger theatrics when the transcript has long been available for public consumption?

    At one point, the frazzled Republicans bared a little backbone against this bunker mentality when they crashed the basement meetings for some really outstanding optics. Schiff, betraying a lack of foresight, could not defenestrate the well-dressed hooligans since the meetings, as mentioned, are being held inside of a windowless dungeon. The Republican troublemakers were ushered back up the stairs instead.

    Considering what Prince Schiff has managed to pull off over the course of this not-made for television impeachment process is astounding, and could not have happened without the drooling complicity of the lapdog media corporations. Schiff got the ball bouncing when he performed a Saturday Night Live skit of the Trump-Zelensky phone call on the hallowed floor of Congress. The imaginary voices in Schiff’s head made the president sound like a mafia boss speaking to one of his lackeys.

    Not only did Schiff survive that stunt, it was revealed that he blatantly lied, not once but several times, about his affiliation with the White House insider, reportedly a CIA officer, who, without ever hearing the Trump-Zelensky phone call firsthand, blew the whistle anyways. The Democrats claim Trump was looking for some ‘quid pro quo’ with Kiev, which would dig up the dirt on Joe Biden and his son Hunter in exchange for the release of $400 million in military aid. The transcript, however, points to no such coercion, while Zelensky himself denies that he was pressured by Trump.

    Meanwhile, Schiff has taken great efforts to keep the identity of the whistleblower a ‘secret’ out of “safety concerns.” The Republicans in the House said they will subpoena the whistleblower for the public impeachment that starts next week, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) told reporters. Yet Schiff has awarded himself the power to reject any witnesses the Republicans may wish to grill.

    “We’ll see if he gives us any of our witnesses,” Jordan said.

    A person need not feel any particular fondness for Donald Trump to find these circumstances surrounding the impeachment show trial as disgraceful, dishonorable and beneath the dignity of the American people. And whether they want it or not, the fallout from Schiff’s shenanigans will have repercussions long into the future of the US political system, which is groaning under the weight of corruption and deceit.

    It is doubtful the Republicans will soon forgive and forget what the Democrats have put them through ever since Trump entered office in 2016. From Russiagate to Ukrainegate, the Trump White House has been held hostage by a non-stop, media-endorsed hate campaign to oust a democratically elected POTUS. Although it would be difficult for the Republicans, who lack the support of the media, an overwhelmingly left-leaning propaganda machine, to exact an equal amount of revenge on the Democrats when the latter have one of their own in the White House, they will certainly try. This will lead the Republic into an inescapable vortex of infighting where the sole function of the political system will be based on that of vengeance and ‘pay backs’ and more waste of time and money as the parties investigate the crimes of the other side.

    The public, which is slowly awakening to the problem, will ultimately demand new leadership to break the current two-party internecine struggle. Thus, talk of a civil war in the United States, while possible, is being overplayed. The truth will be much simpler and far less violent.

    Out of the dust and ashes of the defunct duopoly that is now at war with itself, the American people will soon demand fresh political blood in Washington and this will bring to the forefront capable political forces that are committed to the primary purpose of politics: representing the needs of the people, once again.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 21:45

    Tags

  • Idaho Residents Fume Over State-Wrecking Californians And Other Inflationary Transplants
    Idaho Residents Fume Over State-Wrecking Californians And Other Inflationary Transplants

    As we have documented for years, Californians have been fleeing the Golden State in droves thanks to untenable costs of living which include exorbitant taxes levied by inept bureaucrats. The annual fires, poo-covered streets, and devastating earthquakes are icing on the cake.

    And as we’ve also documented, states experiencing the largest influx of ‘enlightened’ Californians include Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Oregon, Washington and Idaho. According to a January report from the Idaho Department of Labor, the land of potatoes is tied with Nevada as the fastest growing state in the nation.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Downtown Boise, Idaho (Otto Kitsinger / For The Times)

    Unfortunately for longtime residents of greener (cheaper) pastures such as Boise, transplants are starting to ruin things – driving up home prices and rents while median household income remains below the US average.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    via datausa.io

    The income inequality between natives and transplants has caused so much animosity in Idaho that it underpinned Boise mayoral candidate Wayne Richey’s entire platform: Stop the California Invasion.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Mayoral candidate Wayne Richey of Boise, Idaho, ran on a simple promise to stop the California invasion.
    (Otto Kitsinger / For The Times)

    Such inequity was what fueled Richey’s quixotic campaign; he came in fifth with 2% of the vote. The 59-year-old auto body technician runs yard sales on weekends and drives for Lyft on Friday and Saturday nights, when “I take drunk people home.”

    His sister had her own business until the Great Recession, when she lost everything and moved in with him. She just bought a house one city over, the only one she could find for about $230,000, and, he said, it’s a piece of you know what. She works in a call center, rents out a room and works craft shows.

    It’s really, really hard to swallow,” he said, “when somebody sells their house in California for $700,000, comes here, buys any house they want in cash and still has money in the bank.

    Their kids get to go to college,” he continued. “They drive nice cars. And they get to enjoy everything we built over the years. We don’t get to enjoy it, because we’re working 40 hours a week and doing craft shows and doing yard sales.” –LA Times

    The median home price in Ada Couty, where Boise is located, has risen 19.3% since February 2018 according to the Idaho Statesman, and now sits at $349, 994. Vacancy rates for the lowest-income residents, meanwhile is just 0.45% according to HousingIdaho.com.

    And according to the Times, Boise needs 1,000 new housing units per year for the next decade – according to officials in the city of 228,000, which is “just not happening.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    What should Californians and other transplants do?

    Blend in – remove those California license plates. Don’t flash your money. And don’t do things like ‘promoting inclusion‘ by demanding drag queen story hour at the local library.

    As the Times notes, “California bashing is a cyclical sport with a long history in the heart of Idaho’s Treasure Valley.”

    In late September, former Boise State University kicker Taylor Rausa found a professionally printed card on his car, which read:

    GO BACK TO CALIFORNIA

    WE DON’T WANT YOU HERE

    “One bit of advice Rausa got during the online fracas was that he should change those California plates — and fast. That’s been a longtime refrain from friendly Boiseans to their newest neighbors,” according to the report. 

    “If you come here and love it, everything’s fine,” said 2002 California transplant Rev. Bill Roscoe. “If you come here and fly that California flag in your driveway and have stickers on your car that say, ‘Santa Cruz,’ there’s going to be some hard feelings.”

    Roscoe, the CEO of Boise Rescue Mission Ministries, keeps a sign on his desk that says “I am not from Idaho but I got here as fast as I could.”

    Some Californians have tried to integrate, only to be given the cold shoulder anyway.

    Patricia Flanigan also swapped her California plates for the red-white-and-blue “Famous Potatoes” version when she moved from Dana Point in 2015 to the Boise suburb of Eagle. She had retired as dean of online education and learning resources at Saddleback College.

    I took the position that I would come to Idaho and adapt to the community,” she said. She has a doctorate in education. Earlier in her career, she’d taught English as a Second Language at three Southern California community colleges. She’d also run an ESL program at Lake Tahoe Community College. When she moved, she decided to volunteer with non-English speakers.

    She got an appointment with the director of a nearby community college. But the school wasn’t interested in her offer of free help. She was told to try the region’s refugee center. She sent a resume. And never heard back.

    At the college interview, “I was dressed professionally, looked like a Californian,” Flanigan said. “I probably irritated [the director] by my confidence. There was no way she was going to have me volunteer…. She wanted to get rid of me.

    That professional cold shoulder was her introduction to Idaho, the 66-year-old said. Since then, she has founded a website called “Smart Strategies for Successful Living.” She has a circle of friends and a house that she loves and owns outright. She has not looked back.

    “I’m not here to be a Californian,” she said. “I’m here to be a community member and contribute.” –LA Times

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    According to the most recent Treasure Valley Survey conducted by the Idaho Policy Institute at Boise State University in 2018, over 70% of those asked said the region is growing too fast, vs. 50% who said the same in 2016.

    “Over the course of two years,residents of the Treasure Valley have gone from being divided about whether the pace of growth was too fast or about right, to adopting the belief that it is too fast by a large margin,” the survey reports.

    During a September town hall meeting held at a strip mall library, resident Yvette Zoe – who moved to Boise in 1972, said “I know that you can’t stop growth, but what are we going to do about our quality of life here?”

    “My kids, they can’t buy a house because they can’t afford it right now, and they work. My grandkids, their schools are crowded.”

    Newcomers are moving here for a better quality of life, but “the very thing they’re leaving in — we know where — Seattle, California, Austin,” they’re bringing to Boise, she said. “What I’d like to see is what can we do for the people that already live here that have been here for a long time.

    One solution proposed by mayoral candidate Wayne Richey is to tax newcomers more than longtime residents – which he dubbed Proposition Zero One Two Three. It would result in sixty-year residents paying no property taxes – while new residents would instead shoulder the burden.

    “This gives much needed relief to longtime residents and forces new people to pay their share,” said Richey on his Facebook page. “Maybe it just might make them think twice about moving here.”


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 21:25

  • Of Course There Was A Quid Pro Quo! That's The Essence Of Washington's "Foreign Aid"
    Of Course There Was A Quid Pro Quo! That’s The Essence Of Washington’s “Foreign Aid”

    Authored by Jacob Hornberger via The Future of Freedom Foundation,

    Amidst all the political brouhaha regarding foreign aid, it is important that we keep in mind the nature and purposes of this particular federal program, as well as its related program, sanctions.

    Foreign aid is money that the U.S. government sends to certain foreign regimes. The purpose of the money is to secure loyalty to the U.S. Empire. That loyalty comes in the form of votes in the United Nations or support for U.S. imperialist escapades abroad.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    There is hardly ever a formal quid pro quo involved in foreign aid. That is, U.S. officials do not expressly say to a foreign leader, “If you will agree to become a loyal member of the U.S. Empire and support whatever the Empire does, we will send you hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars.”

    Instead, foreign aid is based on an implied bribery agreement. Everyone understands what the core term of the agreement is: “We will give you this money and you, in return, will do as we dictate. If you fail to do so, your foreign aid will be terminated.”

    The situation is somewhat similar to how many politicians in democratic countries handle voters. During their campaigns, the candidates offer voters all sorts of “free” programs. The voters vote for that candidate in order to receive the “free” programs. Once the candidate is elected, he provides the “free” programs or at least does his best to do so. If he doesn’t, he is voted out of office in the next election. Thus, it’s not a formal bribe because there isn’t a formal quid pro quo, but in actuality it’s bribe nonetheless.

    Corruption and socialism

    Another aspect of foreign aid that is important to recognize is that the money is not used to help the “poor, needy, and disadvantaged” in the foreign regime. Instead, it is used for two purposes: one, to fortify the dictatorial control that the receiving regime has over its own citizenry, and, two, to line the pockets of the political leader and the members of his regime, especially those in the military-intelligence sector.

    That’s why foreign leaders are so intent on pleasing U.S. officials. When they receive a “free” check for, say, $100 million, that’s plenty of money to keep and to spread around the bureaucracies, where it then ends up in the private banks accounts of the recipients.

    There is something else important to recognize about foreign aid — the foreign money comes from hard-pressed U.S. taxpayers. The IRS seizes a part of people’s income and then sends it to foreign officials. That’s what makes foreign aid one of the many socialist programs run by the federal government, programs that forcibly take money from people to whom it belongs and send it to people to whom it does not belong.

    Sanctions and extortion

    As previously pointed out, if a foreign regime violates the implied agreement or fails to play ball, foreign aid is terminated or never extended. Oftentimes, however, that’s not all that happens to that regime. That’s where sanctions come into play.

    U.S. officials target the citizens of independent, recalcitrant regimes with economic impoverishment or death as a way to bring the regime into the fold of the empire. Once the citizens begin starving or dying from sanctions, it is hoped that one of three things will happen:

    (1) the citizens revolt, oust their regime, and install a pro-U.S.-empire regime;

    (2) a military coup takes place that installs a pro-U.S-empire military dictatorship; or

    (3) the regime has a crisis of conscience and agrees to join the empire and support its dictates.

    In any of the three cases, the sanctions will be lifted and foreign aid will begin flowing into the regime to ensure the continued loyalty of the foreign regime.

    Thus, while foreign aid is a form of bribery, sanctions are more in the nature of extortion. Both programs are critically important to the operations of the U.S. Empire and its policy of foreign interventionism.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 21:05

    Tags

  • "Ridiculous": $1 Trillion In Orders For $7 Billion Chinese Bond
    “Ridiculous”: $1 Trillion In Orders For $7 Billion Chinese Bond

    In recent years, hardened bond market cynics snickered when insolvent European nations such as Italy or Greece saw 4, 5, or more times demand for their bond offerings than was for sale, whispering to themselves that such oversubscriptions for potentially worthless debt assure a very unhappy ending. Yet not even the biggest cynics were prepared for what just happened in China.

    When Shanghai Pudong Development Bank sold $7 billion in convertible bonds last month, investors placed more than $1 trillion worth of orders, making this a 140 times oversubscribed offering, enough to shock even the most seasoned China investor, the FT reports.

    That $1 trillion in bids was almost as large as the entire stock-market capitalisation of Apple or Microsoft — the two biggest companies in the world. “It was a ridiculous amount,” said Gerry Alfonso, head of research at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities in Shanghai. It is also a testament to how desperate the world has become in chasing yields and return, as well as just how much excess liquidity there is in the market at the moment

    While new issue oversubscriptions have become the norm in recent years, this absurd case had several Chinese market unique characteristics, reflecting a surge in issuance of such equity-linked instruments in China — a rise helped by what the FT called “an unusual embrace of the product by policymakers better known for cracking down on financial innovations to ensure stability.”

    So far this year, Chinese companies have issued a record $40bn in convertible bonds, up more than 80 per cent from the full-year total in 2018, according to Dealogic.

    It now appears that converts have become the latest Chinese bubble due to their hybrid characteristics: while they carry a (lower) coupon payment they also offer investors the right to switch them for equity if a company’s shares rise to a certain price. For companies, convertibles offer a way to raise money more cheaply than by issuing regular debt and do not immediately dilute shareholders’ equity.

    Ronald Wan, chief executive at Partners Capital in Hong Kong, said Chinese convertibles had become more attractive to investors thanks to this year’s stock rally, while the government was promoting the instruments as a way to rein in financing done off-balance sheet, or through a fragile shadow banking sector. Naturally, Wan cautioned that convertibles’ performance “depends on the quality of the issuer”, with investors typically prefering large banks and big blue-chip companies over small and mid-sized issuers, especially in a time when China’s smaller banks are either hit by bank runs or outright getting bailed out.

    Shenwan’s Alfonso meanwhile warned that while large issuers such as Shanghai Pudong have seen ample liquidity in their convertibles after listing, investors in smaller issuers faced the prospect of taking heavy losses in the event of a sell-off.

    “The liquidity is bad but there is liquidity,” he said. “The thing is, the price you’re going to get there is pretty horrendous.”

    That, however, is not preventing every investor scrambling to be allocated a piece of the original bond in hopes of an early pop which can then be sold.

    Some history: China’s first domestic convertible bond was issued in November 1992, two years after the Shanghai Stock Exchange opened. The bond, which never converted to stock, was the only onshore convertible issued for more than half a decade. Today’s market is different, as Chinese convertibles carry special features that set them apart from those in the US or Europe. For one, conversion levels can be reset after a bond is issued, significantly increasing the chances it will switch into stock.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    But the biggest reason why there is unprecedented investor demand for convertibles right now is that – as of this moment – they tend to be looked on favorably by regulators because they are treated as debt until conversion, meaning investors have a better chance than equity shareholders of getting some form of repayment if the company goes bust. Bitcoin enthusiasts are well aware how violently prices can move depending on what Chinese regulators say.

    Furthermore, Chinese companies are normally required to wait at least 18 months between offerings of shares, which makes convertibles a useful way to gain access to new funds quickly. “The process of [convertibles] approval still takes time — half a year or so — but it’s faster than an IPO or secondary offering,” said Yulia Wan, a senior analyst at Moody’s in Shanghai.

    Ultimately, Chinese investors – well known for their propensity to jump from one bubble to another without giving it a second thought – are now rushing into converts due to hopes for quick capital appreciation. Wan said that because convertibles usually have a maturity of five to six years, a company’s shares have plenty of time to rise high enough for conversion.

    The convertibles’ equity-like features mean they offer higher returns to investors than regular debt. But that alone does not explain the huge over-subscriptions common to the local market.

    Alfonso of Shenwan Hongyuan said some of the rush is down to scarcity. Because existing shareholders are entitled to a large chunk of any convertible bond that is issued, the number of lots a company can offer more broadly is limited.

    As such, those who want to get even a modest allocation have no choice but to submit massive bids in hopes of getting on the underwriter’s good side. Ultimately, investors know that they will get only a fraction of what they request. And because no money is required up front to make an offer, there is no reason not to bid as much as possible to maximise the odds of a successful purchase. “You put up as much as you can and hope for the best,” Alfonso said.

    After all, what is the downside: it’s not like the Chinese are known to ever break a promise…

    Commenting on the issue, Shard Capital’s Bill Blain writes that the Chinese converts remind him “of the glory days of the Japanese Equity Warrants market back in the 1980s. Ah, these were the days. How we played in stuff in we barely understood.  Japanese companies we’d never ever heard of being the hot deal of the day, rumors of backhanders to ensure allocations and all kinds of shady goings on. These were the days….”

    Much the same thing seems to be going on in Chinese convertibles – investors know they are hot so they put in vastly inflated orders in the hope they get some bonds. The future is a mobius strip loop of endless repeat moments.

    Here’s the punchline: Shanghai Pudong’s insane 140x oversubscription is not even the biggest on record. As the FT notes, before regulators banned buyers from bidding through multiple accounts in March, it was not unusual for convertibles to be even more heavily over-subscribed. As such, the largest issuance on record of nearly $6bn, from China Citic Bank, was about 5,500 times oversubscribed, according to local media. That means that there were $33 trillion in orders for the bond offering, roughly three times the size of China’s entire economy.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 20:45

  • Federal Court Rules Suspicionless Searches of Travelers' Phones and Laptops Unconstitutional
    Federal Court Rules Suspicionless Searches of Travelers’ Phones and Laptops Unconstitutional

    Authored by Activist Post

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    In a major victory for privacy rights at the border, a federal court in Boston ruled today that suspicionless searches of travelers’ electronic devices by federal agents at airports and other U.S. ports of entry are unconstitutional.

    The ruling came in a lawsuit, Alasaad v. McAleenan, filed by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF), and ACLU of Massachusetts, on behalf of 11 travelers whose smartphones and laptops were searched without individualized suspicion at U.S. ports of entry.

    “This ruling significantly advances Fourth Amendment protections for millions of international travelers who enter the United States every year,” said Esha Bhandari, staff attorney with the ACLU’s Speech, Privacy, and Technology Project. “By putting an end to the government’s ability to conduct suspicionless fishing expeditions, the court reaffirms that the border is not a lawless place and that we don’t lose our privacy rights when we travel.”

    “This is a great day for travelers who now can cross the international border without fear that the government will, in the absence of any suspicion, ransack the extraordinarily sensitive information we all carry in our electronic devices,” said Sophia Cope, EFF Senior Staff Attorney.

    The district court order puts an end to Customs and Border Control (CBP) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) asserted authority to search and seize travelers’ devices for purposes far afield from the enforcement of immigration and customs laws. Border officers must now demonstrate individualized suspicion of illegal contraband before they can search a traveler’s device.

    The number of electronic device searches at U.S. ports of entry has increased significantly. Last year, CBP conducted more than 33,000 searches, almost four times the number from just three years prior.

    International travelers returning to the United States have reported numerous cases of abusive searches in recent months. While searching through the phone of Zainab Merchant, a plaintiff in the Alasaad case, a border agent knowingly rifled through privileged attorney-client communications. An immigration officer at Boston Logan Airport reportedly searched an incoming Harvard freshman’s cell phone and laptop, reprimanded the student for friends’ social media postings expressing views critical of the U.S. government, and denied the student entry into the country following the search.

    For the order:
    https://www.eff.org/document/alasaad-v-nielsen-summary-judgment-order

    For more on this case:
    https://www.eff.org/cases/alasaad-v-duke

    For more about border searches:
    https://www.eff.org/issues/border-searches


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 20:25

  • World's Ultra-Rich Preparing For Market Crash, UBS Warns
    World’s Ultra-Rich Preparing For Market Crash, UBS Warns

    A synchronized global slowdown, with no end in sight, has spooked some of the wealthiest investors around the world, according to a new survey from UBS Wealth Management, seen by Bloomberg. UBS polled wealthy investors, who are preparing for a significant stock market correction by the end of next year. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    In the survey of more than 3,400 high net wealth respondents, 25% said they’ve sold risk assets, such as equities, commodities, and high-yield bonds, and have transitioned into cash. The synchronized global slowdown, coupled with a US-China trade war, were some of the greatest concerns of respondents. 

    “The rapidly changing geopolitical environment is the biggest concern for investors around the world,” said Paula Polito, client strategy officer at UBS GWM, in a statement. “They see global interconnectivity and reverberations of change impacting their portfolios more than traditional business fundamentals, a marked change from the past.”

    About 80% of the respondents expect volatility to increase through 2020, and 55% believe a market plunge could occur before Q4 2020.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Worse, 60% of respondents expected to raise cash levels in the coming quarters (i.e., sell stocks).

    Most respondents said the added caution is due to a possible blowoff top in global equity markets. About 70% of respondents are optimistic through 2030.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    “The challenge is that they seem to want to respond” to short-term uncertainty “by really shortening their time horizons and shifting to assets like cash that are safe,” said Michael Crook, a managing director on the investment strategy team. Though with many of these people investing on a time horizon across decades and for future generations, that “seems like a mismatch.”

    And while most respondents said they’re preparing for market turbulence in the short term, many should rethink their US outlook for the next decade. Teddy Vallee, CIO of Pervalle Global, shows that the “US is dead money for the next 10 yrs.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Vallee suggests that today’s parabolic up moves in stocks could actually be blowoff tops, similar to what was seen in Nikkei 225 in late 1989/90. 


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 20:12

  • World's Largest CLO Whale Goes Cool On $750 Billion Market  
    World’s Largest CLO Whale Goes Cool On $750 Billion Market  

    The US Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLO) market appears to be in a slump thanks in large part to a pullback from Japanese institutional demand, Bloomberg reported, citing sources. 

    Japnese banks have been significant buyers of CLOs in the last several years, and many were forced to take on more risk in search of yield to cover rising hedge costs as the USD yield curve flattens late in the cycle. 

    Alarmingly, we noted as early as Monday that risky CLO securities netted investors 10% through June. But through the end of October, most of the gains were wiped out. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    One of the reasons behind the slump is becoming more evident by the day, and that’s because one of the largest buyers of CLOs has become more selective about purchasing credit products in the last several months.

    Norinchukin Bank, Japan’s major agricultural bank, owns a whopping $73 billion of CLOs as of June, has been recently thinning its positions. 

    Norinchukin has become one of the largest buyers of the $750 billion global CLO market.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Bloomberg recently reported that the agriculture bank started to decrease CLO purchases in Q2 after Japanese authorities tightened financial regulations. 

    “The drop in Norinchukin’s exposure was due to the volume of products maturing exceeding the amount of purchases during the quarter, at a time when there was a lack of attractive new deals,” the sources told Bloomberg.

    Sources also said the bank’s CLO buying spree has likely slowed for now — mostly because its $586 billion asset portfolio has a 13% total exposure to risky credit. 

    Norinchukin’s massive CLO purchases have been critical drivers in the US and European CLO markets in the last year. 

    Sources said the bank saved the US leveraged loan market from completely seizing up in December 2018.

    Norinchukin’s reduced CLO purchases and the risk of a global recession in 2020, could be some of the reasons why monthly returns of US double-B CLO bonds have plunged. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Also, Norinchukin’s pullback in CLO demand could be another reason why CLO new insurances dropped in Q3.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Between the chaos in the repo markets, now tamped down by the promise of endless liquidity from NYFRB, and the ongoing scare in the critical-for-junk-demand CLO market is mainly due to the world’s CLO whales [Japanese banks] pulling back on purchases. These banks own 15% of outstanding CLOs globally. 

    Is a Japanese tsunami out of CLOs nearing?  


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 20:05

  • Journalism School Dean Rips Into "Traumatized" Jeff Sessions Protesters For Harassing Student Journalists
    Journalism School Dean Rips Into “Traumatized” Jeff Sessions Protesters For Harassing Student Journalists

    Update: When the student newspaper apologized for the sin of reporting on an unhinged protest against former Attorney General Jeff Sessions at Northwestern University last week, many professional journalists expressed disbelief that college journalists would openly renounce basic journalism practices.

    They spent less time focused on the actions of the protesters themselves, and after the shitstorm of snowflake outrage that the journalists ignited by daring to take photos and do journalism, Charles Whitaker – the Dean of Northwestern’s Journalism School – has made up for the imbalance : (emphasis ours)

    Journalists have a heady responsibility performing our role as the authors of the first rough draft of history, the term that the late Washington Post President and Publisher Philip L. Graham is credited with coining to describe our work. Journalists often put themselves at great risk not only to expose malfeasance, misfeasance and injustice, but also to hold a mirror up to society and reflect the maneuverings in our daily lives.

    It is important work. Journalism — when executed fairly, accurately and independently — allows a society to see itself in all its splendor and strife. It often is our only chronicle of the people and events that shape and govern our existence. Conversely, when done poorly or unfairly, journalism can most certainly scar individuals and communities. Indeed, there is no shortage of instances in which journalists have parachuted into settings, particularly those occupied by vulnerable or marginalized people, and provided accounts that were devoid of any sense of cultural competency.

    But let me be perfectly clear, the coverage by The Daily Northwestern of the protests stemming from the recent appearance on campus by former Attorney General Jeff Sessions was in no way beyond the bounds of fair, responsible journalism. The Daily Northwestern is an independent, student-run publication. As the dean of Medill, where many of these young journalists are trained, I am deeply troubled by the vicious bullying and badgering that the students responsible for that coverage have endured for the “sin” of doing journalism.

    Like those student journalists, I, too, have been approached by several student activists who were angered by the fact that they and their peers were depicted on the various platforms of The Daily engaged in the very public act of protesting the Sessions speech. I have explained to those activists that as Northwestern’s — and the city of Evanston’s — principal paper of record, The Daily had an obligation to capture the event, both for the benefit of its current audience as well as for posterity. I have also offered that it is naïve, not to mention wrong-headed, to declare, as many of our student activists have, that The Daily staff and other student journalists had somehow violated the personal space of the protestors by reporting on the proceedings, which were conducted in the open and were designed, ostensibly, to garner attention.

    That Daily staffers and other students used social media to track down protestors for comment and to verify facts — another affront, according to The Daily’s detractors — is, in my mind and the minds of my colleagues, the kind of industrious reporting and information-gathering that we expect from enterprising reporters. Our young reporters did not root through trash cans, trespass on private property or purloin personal documents. What they tried to do was ask questions and take pictures that they hoped would offer the most accurate account of this wrenching event – one in which the images captured by The Daily’s photographers may provide the only evidence of what actually transpired in the interaction between students and campus police.

    Some have also charged that our students are rude and insensitive interrogators. They say our students behave like boorish voyeurs when approaching students from marginalized communities. My colleagues and I are mindful of these accusations and are working with our students on their reporting techniques. We absolutely want them to introduce themselves as journalists before peppering subjects with a battery of questions. We want to make sure that they understand that private individuals have no obligation to speak with reporters. And we want them to treat everyone they approach — no matter what their race, ethnicity, sexual orientation or political persuasion — with dignity and respect.

    But I patently reject the notion that our students have no right to report on communities other than those from which they hail, and I will never affirm that students who do not come from marginalized communities cannot understand or accurately convey the struggles of those populations. And, unlike our young charges at The Daily, who in a heartfelt, though not well-considered editorial, apologized for their work on the Sessions story, I absolutely will not apologize for encouraging our students to take on the much-needed and very difficult task of reporting on our life and times at Northwestern and beyond.

    I understand why The Daily editors felt the need to issue their mea culpa. They were beat into submission by the vitriol and relentless public shaming they have been subjected to since the Sessions stories appeared. I think it is a testament to their sensitivity and sense of community responsibility that they convinced themselves that an apology would affect a measure of community healing.

    I might offer, however, that their well-intentioned gesture sends a chilling message about journalism and its role in society. It suggests that we are not independent authors of the community narrative, but are prone to bowing to the loudest and most influential voices in our orbit. To be sure, journalism has often bowed to the whim and will of the rich and powerful, so some might argue that it is only fair that those who feel dispossessed and disenfranchised have their turn at calling the journalistic shots. But that is not the solution. We need more diversity among our student journalists (and in journalism writ large). We need more voices from different backgrounds in our newsrooms helping to provide perspective on our coverage. But regardless of their own identities, our student journalists must be allowed — and must have the courage — to cover our community freely and unfettered by harassment each time members of the community feel they have been wronged.

    This has been a difficult time for the students studying journalism at Medill. They have been under attack for merely doing what we encourage journalists to do: ask questions and write stories that illuminate the Northwestern/Evanston experience for anyone who might be interested in our community. Have they made mistakes? Most assuredly. They are students learning the craft. But I firmly maintain that our students do not act with malice aforethought. By and large, they want to do the right thing and reflect the community accurately.

    So to our student activists, I say let’s have a dialogue about what journalism is and what you might expect when you hold a protest in a public setting. Feel free to critique the coverage. That’s what The Daily’s opinion pages are for. Better yet, join the staff. The Daily is not and should not be the lone provenance of Medill students. I assure you, your input would be welcomed. But waging war on our students on social media — threatening them both physically and emotionally — is beyond the pale. Our community deserves a more civil level of discourse.

    And to the swarm of alums and journalists who are outraged about The Daily editorial and have been equally rancorous in their condemnation of our students on social media, I say, give the young people a break. I know you feel that you were made of sterner stuff and would have the fortitude and courage of your conviction to fend off the campus critics. But you are not living with them through this firestorm, facing the brutal onslaught of venom and hostility that has been directed their way on weaponized social media. Don’t make judgments about them or their mettle until you’ve walked in their shoes. What they need at this moment is our support and the encouragement to stay the course.

    Journalism is under assault in a variety of spheres. But my hope is that we at Northwestern can model ways in which a community can promote freedom of the press while also demonstrating how we conduct healthy and respectful debate. I would be happy to do my part to facilitate that dialogue.”

    How long until he is “boycotted” out of a job?

    *  *  *

    As The College Fix’s Greg Piper detailed earlier, the spirit of Antifa is infecting student protesters. Not necessarily the gleeful violence against anyone to the right of Bernie Sanders, but the visceral aversion to being photographed.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Photography, you may be aware, is kind of important to journalism. But not important enough for The Daily Northwestern, which puts the feelings of public protesters ahead of its fidelity to journalism.

    In an editorial drawing bafflement among professional journalists, the student newspaper at Northwestern University apologized for harming – yes, harming – the students who turned out to protest an appearance by former Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

    What constitutes that harm? Not just taking their photos, but asking them for comment. (Keep in mind Northwestern has an elite yet unaccredited journalism school, Medill.)

    Video from the evening revealed protesters reacting as if they were getting hit by tear gas and rubber bullets in Hong Kong, screaming that Sessions had “violated” them and they were “fighting for their lives right now.” The Daily reported that some were “climbing through open windows and pushing through doors.”

    Protesters knew the cameras were documenting their meltdown. One said they were “not being cute for the Medill photographers,” and an administrator reportedly tried to block someone recording the event.

    And they apparently let the Daily have it for doing its job.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The editorial board starts its cringeworthy column by saying the Daily “was not the paper that Northwestern students deserve.”

    By sending a photographer to cover the protest, the newspaper “contributed to the harm students experienced” at the … “traumatic event”:

    Some protesters found photos posted to reporters’ Twitter accounts retraumatizing and invasive. Those photos have since been taken down. On one hand, as the paper of record for Northwestern, we want to ensure students, administrators and alumni understand the gravity of the events that took place Tuesday night. However, we decided to prioritize the trust and safety of students who were photographed. We feel that covering traumatic events requires a different response than many other stories. While our goal is to document history and spread information, nothing is more important than ensuring that our fellow students feel safe — and in situations like this, that they are benefitting from our coverage rather than being actively harmed by it. We failed to do that last week, and we could not be more sorry.

    If making students “feel safe” is really the newspaper’s mission, it should just shut down entirely. News coverage always makes someone feel unsafe. (See the repeated trashing of campus newspapers.)

    It didn’t get any better from there. The Daily apologized for using the university directory to contact students for interviews – a core practice of any competent college newsroom going back decades – but one that apparently unnerved some students:

    We recognize being contacted like this is an invasion of privacy, and we’ve spoken with those reporters — along with our entire staff — about the correct way to reach out to students for stories. [No “correct” way is given.]

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    It’s even giving a mea culpa for identifying sources who agreed to be named. When you talk to a reporter covering a protest, and she asks you your name, and you tell her, you realize you might be named in a story, right?

    The paper removed the name of a protester who complained because, alas, it doesn’t want to help The Man:

    Any information The Daily provides about the protest [like reporting on it?] can be used against the participating students — while some universities grant amnesty to student protesters, Northwestern does not. We did not want to play a role in any disciplinary action that could be taken by the University. Some students have also faced threats for being sources in articles published by other outlets.

    It operates under these daycare rules because it’s not a “professional publication.” You got that right, editors.

    And these twits had the gall to claim their groveling editorial is in line with the Society of Professional Journalists Code of Ethics: “Ethical journalism treats sources, subjects, colleagues and members of the public as human beings deserving of respect.” Yeah – it also consists of journalism.

    It’s not clear how the Daily can do its job without, you know, taking photos, asking for interviews and naming people it quotes, but like the surgeon who “just got reinstated … well, not officially,” they’ll figure it out:

    Going forward, we are working on setting guidelines for source outreach, social media and covering marginalized groups. As students at Northwestern, we are also grappling with the impact of Tuesday’s events, and as a student organization, we are figuring out how we can support each other and our communities through distressing experiences that arise on campus. We will also work to balance the need for information and the potential harm our news coverage may cause.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    What the Daily is really saying is that it will do whatever any “marginalized” group tells it to do. Print our demand list in full? Check. Hide our identities when we protest in public? Check. Advocate for our cause as a condition of getting interviews with us? Check.

    And most of all, grovel and debase themselves whenever we noble marginalized angels complain about anything you do? Of course. This column has already waved the white flag on the practice of independent journalism.

    Instead, the Daily has made plain that it’s the PR mouthpiece for any person or group claiming to be marginalized.

    Editor-in-chief Troy Closson tried to walk back the editorial in a tweet thread early Tuesday, citing the pressure he has felt as only the third black EIC in the history of the paper.

    But the most he’ll say is that the editors “over-corrected.” The editorial remains unchanged as of now, including its ridiculous insistence that “ethical journalism” requires the abdication of journalism.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    I’m not buying his claim that the Daily editors are hobbled by their “gaps in knowledge about what journalism consists of.” Its newspaper office in the Norris building is a four-minute walk from the Medill school on Northwestern’s campus (below).

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Even though it doesn’t formally oversee the newspaper, the J-school could provide some helpful tips for the editors on covering protests. But it’s not clear from the editorial that the editors would actually follow the advice of veteran journalists.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 19:45

  • Chicago Youth Wreak Havoc With 'Shoplifting Mobs'; Employee's Head Slammed Into Glass Case
    Chicago Youth Wreak Havoc With ‘Shoplifting Mobs’; Employee’s Head Slammed Into Glass Case

    Organized shoplifting teams in Chicago are using children as young as 10-years-old to hit retailers in waves, according to CWBChicago.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Chicago police detain two young men and recover duffle bags filled with allegedly stolen merchandise in Lincoln Park on Saturday. Bret Miller via YouTube

    Last weekend police reported that stores in the city’s Magnificent Mile, Lincoln Park and Loop neighborhoods had been hit hard – while one retail employee was reportedly pepper-sprayed and another had their head slammed into a glass merchandise case.

    Retailers are dealing with a wave of organized shoplifting teams that frequently use juveniles to do their dirty work. North Side locations of Forever 21, H&M, Ulta Beauty, DSW, Patagonia, and Burlington have been struck repeatedly — sometimes twice within hours.

    On Sunday, a team of six teenage shoplifters was spotted at the Michigan Avenue Victoria’s Secret store minutes after they struck the nearby H&M location, 840 North Michigan. Police arrested two members of the crew after an H&M manager identified them.

    About five minutes later, around 5:10 p.m., a two-person shoplifting team stole bags of winter coats from Patagonia, 1800 North Clybourn. The offenders stuffed the high-end gear into duffle bags, pushed employees, and fled. No arrests were made.

    The same Patagonia store was struck by a group of kids at 11:30 a.m. on Saturday. Photographer Bret Miller captured video of cops detaining the youths while officers pulled piles of coats out of duffle bags on a nearby side street. Police detained five juveniles. –CWBChicago

    Meanwhile, a local Marshall’s location was hit by a group of “very young kids accompanied by a 6’2″ man. According to a police officer who chased them, they were “real little… 10 years old.”

    on Saturday afternoon, fire personnel transported a Forever 21 employee to Mercy Hospital after a shoplifting team deployed pepper-spray and fought with customers at the chain’s Loop location, 10 South State. Witnesses said the thieves fled into a nearby subway station with “big bags of merchandise.” 

    On Friday, juvenile shoplifting crews struck twice in the South Loop, hitting DSW around 10:10 a.m. and Burlington three hours later. No arrests were made.

    Theft crews struck at least four downtown stores last Wednesday evening.

    Around 5 p.m., seven thieves stole merchandise and knocked down the manager at Zumiez, 2 South State. When the employee tried to take back some of the stolen property, one offender punched him in the face and pushed his head into a glass display case, according to Chicago police. The victim refused medical attention and the shoplifters, all between 13- and 20-years-old, got away with about $1,000 worth of goods. –CWBChicago

    Just another day in progressive utopia!


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 19:25

    Tags

  • Global Business Surveys Slump To Worst Level Since The Great Recession
    Global Business Surveys Slump To Worst Level Since The Great Recession

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    Two surveys of global businesses are at their lowest point since the last recession over a decade ago. Both surveys were released Monday and both indicate that it’s just as bad now as it was at the end of the Great Recession.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Several reports are showing that Americans have not recovered in the past ten years from the previous recession.  This makes the onslaught of another economic downturn daunting at best and it’ll be devastating for many.

    The IHS Markit global business outlook – which surveys 12,000 companies three times a year – fell to the worst level since 2009, when data was first collected.

    The Ifo world economic outlook, which surveys 1,230 people in 117 countries, fell in the fourth quarter to the worst level since the second quarter of 2009.

    Markit’s poll found optimism for activity, employment and profits in the year ahead were all at the lowest level since the financial crisis. Markit also reported a decline in planned investment spending, with inflation expectations at a three-year low. –Market Watch

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    According to Market Watch, the Ifo Institute said assessments of the current situation were unfavorable, particularly in emerging markets. In advanced economies, it was primarily estimates for the coming months that had declined. In emerging markets, the downward trend was based mostly in Asia and in advanced economies, it was concentrated in the United States.

    This decreasing optimism is countering the rise in the stock market. Odd economic data has been surfacing lately that makes little sense.  For example, last week, consumer optimism fell while consumer spending rose.

    Americans continued to spend money and use debt to fund their lifestyles even though they are less confident in the economy. If both of those things are true, many Americans are setting themselves up for a bumpy ride when the next recession does hit.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 19:05

  • Sanders Hot With Nurses; Earns Endorsement From Largest Union In Country
    Sanders Hot With Nurses; Earns Endorsement From Largest Union In Country

    Bernie Sanders has earned the endorsement of the nation’s largest union of registered nurses, which will announce their decision at a California event on Friday, according to Bloomberg.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The 150,000-member union cites his support for Medicare for All, veterans health care and in boosting the labor movement. The union endorsed Sanders in his 2016 Democratic primary bid against eventual nominee Hillary Clinton, and the early endorsement in the 2020 race is a win for him amid a crowded field that includes fellow progressive Elizabeth Warren.

    For nurses, our solidarity is a matter of life or death for our patients,” said union president Jean Ross. “We need a president who makes it easier for us to stand together and hold our employers accountable for putting people above profits.”

    Sanders will attend the Friday announcement in Oakland as part of a series of California campaign stops that include Fresno, Long Beach and East Los Angeles.

    The 78-year-old Sanders was the only 2020 Democratic candidate to actually sit for an in-person interview with the union, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts called in via video chat and Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind. sent them a three-minute video.

    Joe Biden and Kamala Harris blew the union off.

    As the New York Times notes, the union endorsement also comes with a giant purse:

    The endorsement also brings Mr. Sanders the support of the union’s super PAC, a thorny issue given that Mr. Sanders, like most of the Democrats seeking the party’s 2020 nomination, has disavowed support from super PACs.

    In 2016 the union’s super PAC spent $5 million backing Mr. Sanders in the primary contest against Hillary Clinton, a relative pittance in the world of super PACs (the one supporting Jeb Bush blew through $87 million). Still, it spent more money backing Mr. Sanders than was spent by any other super PAC on behalf of Mrs. Clinton or other Democrats in the run-up to the Iowa caucuses.

    According to the union’s executive director Bonnie Castillo, the super PAC “will be activated” for Sanders, and vowed not to attack other 2020 candidates.

    “We’re not going negative,” said Castillo. “We are a very positive force. It’s a reflection of who we are as a profession. We are healers.”

    Sanders, responding to the decision, said “What the nurses understand is that the current health care system is not only dysfunctional but extraordinarily cruel.”

    “Together we are finally going to do what should have been done decades ago and make sure that every man, woman and child in this country has quality health care as a human right.”


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 18:45

  • "I Feel Like A Stranger In A Strange Land…"
    “I Feel Like A Stranger In A Strange Land…”

    Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

    “Secrecy begets tyranny.”

    Robert A. Heinlein, Stranger in a Strange Land

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    “Thinking doesn’t pay. Just makes you discontented with what you see around you.”

    – Robert A. Heinlein, Stranger in a Strange Land

    When I read quotes by men like H.L. Mencken and Robert Heinlein, I realize I’m not really a stranger in a strange land, even though I feel that way most of the time. These cynical, critical thinking, libertarian minded gentlemen understood government tended towards corruption and tyranny, the populace tended towards ignorance and distraction, and reality eventually teaches a harsh lesson to fools, knaves and dumbasses.

    Sometimes we think the current day worldly circumstances are new and original, when human nature, politicians, and governments never really change. When Mencken and Heinlein were writing and providing social commentary during the 30’s, 40’s and 50’s, they observed the same fallacies, foolishness, lack of self-responsibility, government malfeasance, and inability of the majority to think critically, that are rampant in society today.

    The quotes above, written during the 1950s, are even more pertinent today. As the ongoing Surveillance State attempted coup against president Trump approaches its denouement, the fabric of this country is being torn asunder. It is the secrecy in which the Deep State has operated without oversight which has led to government tyranny. Julian Assange and Edward Snowden exposed the secrets of powerful interests operating within the CIA, NSA, FBI, White House, Congress and military industrial complex, revealing the malevolent disregard for the Constitutional rights of American citizens and wielding of power for power’s sake.

    The collection of all electronic communications by Americans by all-powerful, unaccountable Deep State psychopaths is worse than anything conceived by Orwell in 1984. The fact Assange and Snowden are treated as traitors and criminals reveals the Deep State is still in control of our political and legal systems. Even though Brennan, Clapper, Comey, Clinton and Obama used their Deep State power to try and overthrow Trump, he still toes the company line by calling Assange and Snowden criminals. Government tyranny is still going strong.

    Heinlein’s point about thinking is well taken. When you look at what is going on in this country and around the world with a critical eye, how could you not be discontented with what you see. We have government run schools inhabited by social justice engineers, teaching our children there are 47 genders, but not basic math or how to read and spell. We have the masses glorying in their ignorance as they worship silicone inflated shallow idols and vote for socialists and communists to provide them with free shit.

    Meanwhile, the national debt just surpassed $23 trillion, annual deficits will never fall below $1 trillion again, the $200 trillion of unfunded unpayable welfare liabilities are ignored, the Fed and other central banks are printing at hyper-speed to achieve 2% GDP growth (at least the stock market is at all-time highs – making the .1% happy), and half the country despises the other half.

    I find myself trying not to think because I just get angry about virtually everything I see. As a libertarian minded person who saw the vile mistreatment and abusive lies flung at one of the few decent human beings in politics – Ron Paul – there is absolutely nothing being done by the despicable dung merchants in Washington D.C. or the feckless financiers inhabiting the Eccles building which benefit myself, my children or future generations.

    The raping and pillaging of the national wealth go on unabated, by billionaires, operating in the shadows, utilizing the mechanisms of the Deep State and carried out by highly compensated lackeys in NYC and D.C. The military industrial complex resists all efforts by Trump to extract U.S. forces from the Middle East, as never-ending war fills their coffers with profits. Even though we proclaim energy independence, we somehow seem to need Syrian oil. Even though everyone knows the Saudis are evil fuckers, we continue to kiss their ass for oil.

    The vast majority of Americans choose not to think, not because it would cause them discontent, but because they are incapable of critical thought. Our joke of an educational system has taught generations of Americans how to feel, rather than how to think. Government controlled schools serve the purposes of the Deep State – dumb down the populace through social engineering, rewarding mediocrity, obscuring history, punishing critical thinking, feminizing boys and drugging those who don’t conform.

    The dumbing down of the masses makes them pliable and easily manipulated through the mass media propaganda spewed from the boob tube and social media conglomerates. The unholy alliance between big tech, big media and big government keeps the masses uninformed, misinformed and distracted by meaningless minutia. The truth is hidden and obscured at all costs. A huge swath of populace will unquestioningly believe whatever they are told to believe, while millions more are so distracted with their iGadgets, they aren’t even paying attention.

    The ruling class doesn’t want people thinking why they have used the military industrial complex in securing Syrian oil fields, supporting Saudi aggression, threatening Iran, attempting a coup in Venezuela, creating havoc in the Ukraine, occupying Afghanistan, and treating Russia and China as imminent threats, when their narrative is we are self-sufficient with regards to oil. The propaganda press peddles half truths about being a net exporter, when we still import 6 million barrels of oil per day.

    The fracking miracle is really a miracle that hundreds of companies could issue junk bonds as they lose money on every barrel pumped out of the ground. The Fed’s easy money “solution” just blew another bubble in fracking. The oligarchs know it’s a farce, that’s why they are using the military to secure oil around the world by creating chaos and then making the world safe for democracy by bombing the shit out of the Middle East.

    Heinlein published Stranger in a Strange Land in 1961, even though the original idea was conceived in 1948 as a modernized version of Kipling’s The Jungle Book, with the child raised by Martians instead of wolves. He didn’t think society was ready for the themes he tackled during the button downed 1950s. The cultural revolution of the 1960s saw a broader acceptance of questioning government power, organized religion, and what individual freedom and liberty meant in society.

    The story focuses on a human raised on Mars and his adaptation to and understanding of humans and their culture. It is set in a post-Third World War United States, where organized religions are politically powerful. There is a World Federation of Free Nations, including the demilitarized US, with a world government supported by Special Service troops. Heinlein sure had a perceptive view of the future, as world government is still the goal of globalists and organized religions are more corrupt and powerful than ever.

    Heinlein always considered himself a libertarian. In a letter written in 1967 he said, “As for libertarian, I’ve been one all my life, a radical one. You might use the term ‘philosophical anarchist’ or ‘autarchist’ about me, but ‘libertarian’ is easier to define and fits well enough.” The theme of personal freedom resonates throughout his body of work. Heinlein repeatedly addressed certain social themes: the importance of individual liberty and self-reliance, the nature of sexual relationships, the obligation individuals owe to their societies, the influence of organized religion on culture and government, and the tendency of society to repress nonconformist thought.

    Much like Mencken, Orwell, and Steinbeck, as Heinlein aged, he became more cynical about government and society. He feared our culture and form of government was fatally flawed. Again, he foresaw where we are today – having lost freedoms, liberties, and rights as government laws, regulations and taxes have expanded.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    “At the time I wrote Methuselah’s Children I was still politically quite naive and still had hopes that various libertarian notions could be put over by political processes … It [now] seems to me that every time we manage to establish one freedom, they take another one away. Maybe two. And that seems to me characteristic of a society as it gets older, and more crowded, and higher taxes, and more laws.”

    – Robert Heinlein

    Government Power, Corruption and Tyranny

    “Democracy is a poor system of government at best; the only thing that can honestly be said in its favor is that it is about eight times as good as any other method the human race has ever tried. Democracy’s worst fault is that its leaders are likely to reflect the faults and virtues of their constituents – a depressingly low level, but what else can you expect?” 

    – Robert A. Heinlein, Stranger in a Strange Land

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    “Government! Three-fourths parasitic and the rest stupid fumbling.”

    – Robert A. Heinlein, Stranger in a Strange Land

    When I read Heinlein’s view of democracy, the American populace, and politicians from the 1950s, it makes me wonder whether my cynical pessimistic assessment of our country is nothing new. Has the country been wallowing in ignorance, lack of virtue, parasitic politicians and government incompetence for decades and my depression with the current state of affairs is nothing new among libertarian minded people?

    Since human nature never changes, with a certain percentage of the population driven by greed, a psychotic thirst for power, craving for control over the masses, and unwillingness to govern while keeping the interests of future generations under consideration, I guess it’s just the level of intensity that matters. The cyclical nature of history is pointing towards the intensity level of discontent reaching a crescendo in the near future.

    Even though corruption among government parasites has always existed, it currently permeates the system like a vampire squid on the face of America. It’s the invisible government of the Deep State which has sucked the life from our nation, extracting the national wealth in cahoots with its conduit – The Federal Reserve.

    The Deep State, utilizing corrupted politicians and feckless bureaucrats within the halls of Congress and surveillance state agencies, have been conducting a three-year coup against a sitting president. The blatant disregard for the Constitution and rule of law shows the ruling class is convinced they have dumbed down a sufficient number of citizens so they can do whatever they please, while employing their corporate propaganda media to spin their coup as legitimate and rightful.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The oligarchs in control of our financial system have convinced the masses running up the national debt to $23 trillion, running annual deficits exceeding $1 trillion, and accumulating $200 trillion of unfunded pension and welfare liabilities are in their best interests. Not only that, the current crop of socialist presidential candidates wants to add tens of trillions more to the debt load by promising student loan debt write-offs, free college education, open borders, and Medicare for all.

    The masses are onboard after watching the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and Congress hand over trillions to the Wall Street cabal that almost destroyed the global financial system in 2008 with their criminal mortgage debt control fraud. If free shit is OK for wealthy bankers, why not free shit for everyone else?

    Since September the Fed has been acting like we are in the midst of the 2008/2009 crisis, pumping over $200 billion (not QE) into the veins of the Wall Street junkie banks who were suffering withdrawal symptoms from a devastatingly high 2.25% Federal Funds rate. The result has been a soaring stock market, further enriching the .1%, while the average Joe wallows in $14 trillion of consumer debt and the Wall Street shylocks charge 20% interest rates on credit card debt.

    Delinquency rates on auto loans exceed the levels of 2009. The housing market has hit a wall. When prices begin to fall, mortgage delinquencies will soar. The real delinquency rates on student loans exceed 25%, as degrees in lesbian studies lead to waitress jobs at Applebees. The narrative about best job market ever is a farce, as the growth has been in low paying, no healthcare benefit jobs in the service industries.

    Heinlein’s view of politicians, their corruptibility, and ability to tell half truths which are really lies, is even more evident in today’s world. The candidates are hand picked by the corporate interests. Their salaries while in office are fairly modest, but they leave office as multi-millionaires and are paid handsomely on the Boards of the corporations they were supposed to regulate.

    Bernanke and Yellen now make more giving one speech at a Wall Street bank than they made annually as the Federal Reserve Chairman. Every local, state and federal politician is bought off to some extent. They do the bidding of the vested interests who got them elected, not what is best for their constituents. We are lost in a blizzard of lies. A society addicted to falsehoods and bereft of truth will surely degrade and eventually collapse.

    “He’s an honest politician–he stays bought.”

    – Robert A. Heinlein, Stranger in a Strange Land

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    “The slickest way in the world to lie is to tell the right amount of truth at the right time-and then shut up.”

    – Robert A. Heinlein, Stranger in a Strange Land

    Liberty, Freedom & Obligations to Society

    “I believe in my fellow citizens. Our headlines are splashed with crime. Yet for every criminal, there are ten thousand honest, decent, kindly men. If it were not so, no child would live to grow up. Business could not go on from day to day. Decency is not news. It is buried in the obituaries, but it is a force stronger than crime.” – Robert Heinlein

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Heinlein still believed in the noble decency of the majority of people back in the 1940’s and 1950’s. The climactic scene in It’s a Wonderful Life captured the belief that even though there will always be cold hearted evil bankers like Mr. Potter (the Jamie Dimon of his day) feeding off the misery of others, most people are good hearted, kind and giving. Is Heinlein’s view applicable in today’s world? Bad news, bad people and crime produce views, clicks and eyeballs for the corporate media complex.

    Stories about good people doing good things on a daily basis are boring to those controlling the narrative. The purpose of the propagandists supporting the Deep State is to keep the masses fearful and distracted. Scare tactics and keeping half the country at the throats of the other half is good for business. While the masses are distracted by trivialities, boogeymen (Russians), and impeachment porn, the ruling class absconds with what remains of the national wealth.

    Based upon Heinlein’s definition of a dying culture, we have already crossed the Rubicon. The level of vitriol spewed on a daily basis on social media, by the propagandist media, by politicians, and by intellectual yet idiots is a clear indication of a culture gasping its dying breath. There are still good people in this country who can be counted on by their neighbors, friends and families. As the current culture dies and is swept away during this Fourth Turning, what kind of culture will follow?

    Will decent, libertarian minded, freedom loving people arise to guide the country towards a better future? Or will totalitarian minded evil men crush the hopes and dreams of the good people and reign over an even darker period in our history. Goodness without backbone, wisdom and willingness to fight to the death will be overrun by evil.

    “A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot.”

    – Robert A. Heinlein

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    “But goodness alone is never enough. A hard, cold wisdom is required for goodness to accomplish good. Goodness without wisdom always accomplishes evil.”

    – Robert A. Heinlein, Stranger in a Strange Land

    I still feel like a stranger in a strange land. But, based on my interactions with good people with hard, cold wisdom over the last ten years, I believe there is still hope for our nation. I think there are enough good people with common sense, critical thinking skills, and the courage and fortitude to stand up to the Deep State and defeat the evil permeating the current social order. Conflict against fellow Americans looms. Allying yourself with good people is essential. Maybe I’m being naïve believing good can win over evil, but it’s better than throwing in the towel and accepting our fate.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 18:25

    Tags

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 12th November 2019

  • Turkey's Other Weapon Against The Kurds: Water
    Turkey’s Other Weapon Against The Kurds: Water

    Authored by Alexander Marvar via TheNation.com,

    Since the early 2000s, a massive hydropower project in southeastern Turkey has been mired in controversy, moving forward in fits and starts. But as of this past July, construction is finally complete. As the dam and its reservoir become fully operational, the line between hydropower and state power will be washed away. This fall, the violence that followed a sudden, destabilizing withdrawal of US troops from nearby northern Syria captured the world’s attention as it cleared the path for Turkey’s military to dominate the Kurdish opposition.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Meanwhile, the water slowly rising behind the 442-foot-high, more-than-a-mile-wide wall of the Ilisu Dam across the Tigris River is a less overt sign of that same determination.

    “This dam is a weapon against the lowlands,” said Ulrich Eichelmann, a German ecologist and conservationist and head of the Austrian NGO RiverWatch, over the phone from Vienna.

    “It was planned and is now being built in a way they can hold back the whole Tigris for a long time. If you see water as a weapon, dams are the new cannons. Iraq has the oil, Turkey has the water, and sometimes, it’s much better to have the water.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Map of Turkey with the Ilisu Dam. (Numerus Klausus, CC BY-SA 3.0)

    The Tigris and Euphrates rivers, two of the three longest rivers in the Middle East after the Nile, both originate in Turkey. The Euphrates flows across Turkey, south through the heart of Syria, and into Iraq. Now, both of these storied, sacred, ancient rivers are drying up, and the  (once) Fertile Crescent is giving way to arid, cracked ground.

    To some extent, the culprit is climate change. More immediately, the fate and exploitation of these rivers lies with Turkey’s hydropower development and the 41-component project of which the Ilisu Dam is just one part: Dams on the Euphrates have reduced water flow into Syria by an estimated 40 percent in the past 40 years and into Iraq by nearly twice that. With the damming of the Tigris, the last lifeline to this region will also be in Turkey’s grip.

    Downriver, the effects will be water shortage. The Mesopotamian Marshes in Iraq may turn to desert. This region, now a UNESCO World Heritage site, was drained during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980 and again by Saddam Hussein in a tactical maneuver to expose his enemies. After Hussein’s ouster, the dikes he had built were torn down in celebration, and the parts of the marshland ecosystem began to return to its previous, verdant state. With the Ilisu’s restricted water flow will come not only ecological repercussions but also a tactical advantage for enemies of the region’s inhabitants.

    Upriver, the problem will be not too little water but an inundation. As with the creation of any major reservoir, bird and fish habitats will be wiped out and the regional climate will be altered. Ecosystems, residential areas, and archaeological sites will be submerged.

    For the past few years, though, one loss has loomed particularly large: the 12,000-year-old settlement of Hasankeyf, a Kurdish heritage site with untold archaeological value, soon to be inundated by Ilisu’s artificial lake.

    In the context of Turkey’s history of imperialism against the Kurds, the impact of this dam-building spree extends well beyond Kurdish Turkey to the entirety of Syria and Iraq. From there, the geopolitical repercussions ripple outward. More than progress, Ilisu is a play for power and domination.

    After World War I, the Ottoman Empire broke into pieces. One became independently ruled Turkey; others were divided among Western superpowers, who made a provision to the Kurds—indigenous peoples of the stretch of Mesopotamia that stretches across parts of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Armenia—for an independent Kurdistan.

    But when the boundaries of modern-day Turkey were drawn shortly thereafter in 1923, that provision was left out. The Kurds, now the minority in every country they inhabit, have been fighting for their homeland ever since. Violent friction between Kurdish separatist groups and Turkey over this question is ongoing.

    As early as the 1930s, the new Turkish nation under founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk began to explore how its rivers and the Euphrates in particular could be harnessed for power generation. A proposal for the eventual Southern Anatolia Project—Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi, or GAP—was floated as early as the 1960s. Today, GAP consists of 22 dams—including Ilisu and, on the Euphrates, Atatürk—and the hydroelectric infrastructure to support them.

    Turkey put the first of GAP’s dams on the Euphrates into use in 1974, gaining new control over the water supply to Kurdish, Syrian, and Iraqi neighbors downriver. That same year, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK, the militant separatist organization that tends to frame most discussion about contemporary Kurdish-Turkish relations) was founded.

    In step with the Keban Dam, Syria opened its own dam on the Euphrates, the Tehba, for which planning had been underway in partnership with the Soviet Union since the late 1950s. The combined effect of Turkey’s and Syria’s two dams on the Euphrates sent Iraq into a devastating drought, bringing Iraq and Syria to the brink of war.

    After successfully pitting its neighbors against each other, Turkey entered into an interim water protocol accord with Iraq in 1984 and one with Syria in 1987, early in the PKK’s full-scale insurgency. In the Syrian agreement, Turkey guaranteed a set minimum annual flow from the Euphrates basin into Syria. Further down the page, Syria vowed to end PKK activities on Syrian soil: a vivid quid pro quo.

    In the early 1990s, the Turkish government completed the Atatürk Dam—the fourth-largest dam in the world—causing the forced resettlement of upwards of 50,000 people in a predominantly Kurdish region. It demolished the ancient city of Samosata, an ancient Hellenistic and then Roman capital and birthplace of ancient Greek poet Lucian, as well as Nevalı Çori, a Neolithic settlement where, in the little time they had, archaeologists discovered some of the world’s oldest known temples and monuments. In filling the Atatürk reservoir, Turkey cut off the majority of the Euphrates’s flow into Syria and Iraq for weeks, crippling agriculture. In virtually the same moment, then-President Turgut Özal asked Syria and Iraq to help combat the PKK.

    In the decades that followed, Kurdish-Turkish relations continued to deteriorate; democracy under President Erdoğan continued to backslide; and Turkey’s grip on its neighbors’ fate through control of water only tightened, bringing drought to once-fertile Syrian and Iraqi farmlands, drying up entire villages, and forcing people to relocation to cities.

    In 2009, Turkey responded to an election victory for the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) with hundreds of arrests and detainments of DTP members. That same year, Syria was in the midst of a five-year drought and desperate for Turkey to relinquish more water resources.

    Syria was of no great use in tempering opposition from the PKK, and—possibly in response—Turkey refused to come to Syria’s aid in the water crisis. The mounting unrest that followed ultimately created the political and social volatility that led to Syria’s 2010 Arab Spring. In 2018, The New York Times reported that the Euphrates, surrounded by parched land and depopulated villages, serves as a barrier between American-backed Kurdish-led militias and Turkish-backed rebels. It was this area that fell into chaos with Trump’s October withdrawal of American troops.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    An ancient cemetery in Hasankeyf as pictured in 2008. Today, the graves are being excavated one at a time and moved to plots in a new cemetery at New Hasankeyf. (Alexandra Marvar)

    The Turkish government has stood by the Ilisu project as a means of development and progress in Southern Anatolia. The Turks argue that since the $2 billion dam will generate a projected 2 percent of the national energy budget—enough electricity to power well over a million homes—the displacement of 80,000 people over 125 square miles doesn’t seem significant enough to alter a plan that has been decades in the works. It also claims the project will aid a transition to carbon-neutral power (if one disregards the carbon footprint of constructing a mile-long wall of rock and steel over the course of decades), is rife with new opportunities from irrigation to tourism, and that regulation of water flow into drought-plagued Syria and Iraq could bring the benefit of year-round consistency.

    But experts aren’t buying it. Ercan Ayboga is an environmental engineer and a spokesperson for Keep Hasankeyf Alive, a Kurdish-led NGO advocating for the preservation of Hasankeyf and other at-risk sites in the future Ilisu basin. Of course, the project will generate some electricity, he said over the phone from his home in Germany. At its core, though, he sees the dam as a tool to facilitate the assimilation of Kurdish people into Turkish society, forcing them into cities where their communities and culture will be more diffuse.

    “Today, [Ilisu] is a tool to use against the Kurdish guerilla,” he says. “Tomorrow it could be used against something different—against any form of opposition.”

    The loss of a priceless world heritage site at Hasankeyf was the argument on which the project might have been halted in its tracks. Continuously inhabited for more than 10 millennia by the Byzantines, Romans, Mongols, Ottomans, and, for centuries, the Kurds, these civilizations artifacts and architecture all layered upon each other—ancient cave dwellings, amphitheaters, aqueducts, mosques, minarets—Hasankeyf could easily have fulfilled the necessary five of 10 criteria to become a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Some experts say, in fact, it meets nine of the 10. But the organization couldn’t intervene to stop the flood because, it said, Turkey never applied for the inclusion of the ancient city of Hasankeyf on the World Heritage List.

    If Hasankeyf could not offer leverage to stop the Turkish government, the UNESCO-protected Mesopotamian Marshes, which experts say will wither and desertify as a result of Ilisu, may have offered another chance. But Iraq, beholden to Turkey by hydropolitics, was unwilling to advocate for the marshlands (and the Marsh Arabs to whom they are home)—it could mean retribution in the form of water deprivation via any of the number of existing dams on the Turkish-Iraqi border. And more dams on this border are already in the works.

    Through the relocation and subsequent cultural assimilation resulting from this development, water policy has helped the Turkish government exercise direct control over the Kurds in Turkey, and by controlling water flow to Iraq and Syria, indirect control over a much larger part of the Kurdish nation.

    According to data from 2016, 11 GAP dams are currently operational, and at least three are under construction. PKK separatists desperate to keep control of the water out of Turkey’s hands have bombed the construction sites of some of the new dams, prolonging the building phase, but development moves forward.

    In Hasankeyf, a barricade blocks the entry of outsiders, and Ayboga reported that the process of relocating its residents—slated for completion earlier this month—has been slow, unclear, and disorganized, leaving hundreds with nowhere to go as the water approaches.

    NGOs like Keep Hasankeyf Alive vow to continue their work to stop Ilisu. But now that halting construction through petition, plea, or compromise is no longer an option, the objective has shifted to somehow emptying the reservoir. Even if Hasankeyf as it was can’t be saved, for the Kurds to give up the fight against this move of Turkish imperialism—against Kurdish heritage, culture, community, agency, autonomy, and health—would be to admit a bludgeoning defeat. “This is not a project we can accept,” Ayboga said.

    Meanwhile, Turkey continues to broaden its reach in the name of progress. The more control over water it has, the more power it has over its enemies.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/12/2019 – 02:00

  • Global Proxy War Escalates: "Destabilizing Operation" Sends Bolivia Into Political Chaos
    Global Proxy War Escalates: “Destabilizing Operation” Sends Bolivia Into Political Chaos

    Authored by Michael Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    Two days before Bolivian president Evo Morales was pushed out by the country’s military, Mark Weisbot of the Center for Economic and Policy Research penned a warning about what was happening, and what might unfold, in a Nation article titled, The Trump Administration Is Undercutting Democracy in Bolivia.

    He noted:

    Multilateral organizations like the Organization of American States (OAS) have a certain perceived impartiality because they are, in theory, controlled by a diverse group of nations. But sometimes a great power can wield a disproportionate influence. It could theoretically be a coincidence that both the Trump administration and the OAS have tried—without offering any evidence—to discredit Bolivia’s national election in the past couple of weeks. But it’s more likely that this dangerous, ugly, and destabilizing operation is being pushed by Washington.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    This “destabilizing operation” came to a head yesterday when Morales resigned under pressure from the military amidst a wave of protests and violence. The situation is Bolivia is complicated, but one thing you can be sure of is anything you hear or read in U.S. mass media will be a heaping pile of lies and propaganda. Fortunately, I came across a really helpful thread courtesy of Kevin Cashman.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Morales was barred by the constitution from running for another term, but he attempted to override this with a referendum which he lost 51% to 49%. The Bolivian Supreme Court later ruled that term limits were unconstitutional, so he decided to run again. He then won this new election in the first round by the 10% spread required, but the Organization of American States (OAS) immediately called into question the validity of the result. This sparked weeks of protests and culminated in yesterday’s military coup. According to Mark Weisbot, the OAS has provided zero evidence of election fraud, and also notes that approximately 60% of the OAS budget comes from the U.S. government.

    Personally, I think Morales should’ve accepted the referendum result and stepped aside, but the military deciding the situation (with likely assistance from the U.S. government/CIA) is not something anyone should cheer on.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    It seems likely what went down in Bolivia is part of the global proxy war the Trump administration is waging against countries like China and Russia in order to push back against the ongoing transition to a multi-polar geopolitical world. Natural resources always play a key role in such struggles, and Bolivia is no exception thanks to massive lithium reserves, some of which Morales agreed to develop with China earlier this year.

    As Reuters reported back in February:

    Bolivia has chosen a Chinese consortium to be its strategic partner on new $2.3 billion lithium projects, the government said on Wednesday, giving China a potential foothold in the country’s huge untapped reserves of the prized electric battery metal.

    China’s Xinjiang TBEA Group Co Ltd will hold a 49 percent stake in a planned joint venture with Bolivia’s state lithium company YLB, the Bolivian firm said…

    Bolivia has some of the world’s largest reserves of lithium – a key component in batteries that power electric cars – but has yet to produce the metal at a commercial scale.

    It’s going to be very interesting to watch how things unfold in Bolivia from here. Although Morales lost the referendum to run for another term, my guess is a lot of those who voted against him at the time aren’t pleased with the military coming in to handle the situation. Although it’s not often highlighted in U.S. mass media, Morales achieved a great deal of success economically and socially during his presidency.

    For instance, poverty plummeted dramatically:

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Then there’s this.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Whether you love him, hate him, or feel indifference, there’s no denying Morales did a lot for many Bolivians who probably won’t take too kindly to what’s being done to him and his supporters by the opposition and military. Let’s not forget he was also the first indigenous president of Bolivia, a country with the largest proportion of indigenous people in Latin America. This story is far from over.

    Bigger picture, the escalation in Bolivia is further evidence of the ongoing trend of political chaos around the world, which is likely get worse and spread to ever more corners of the globe. I continue to believe this unrest is largely symptomatic of the death throes of a dying geopolitical and financial paradigm that’s dominated the world for decades. Keep your seatbelts fastened; things can change, and change very quickly irrespective of where you reside. Such are the times we live in.

    *  *  *

    Liberty Blitzkrieg is now 100% ad free. To make this a successful, sustainable thing consider the following options. You can become a Patron. You can visit the Support Page to donate via PayPal, Bitcoin or send cash/check in the mail.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 23:45

    Tags

  • "We've Had Fires Since Time Began": Australia Deputy PM Slams "Enlightened, Woke Capital-City Greenies"
    “We’ve Had Fires Since Time Began”: Australia Deputy PM Slams “Enlightened, Woke Capital-City Greenies”

    With California wildfires on hiatus for the time being, the global cooling global warming climate change police has diverted its collective outrage to Australia where a series of major fires has erupted in New South Wales where Shane Fitzsimmons, the local fire chief, said it could be “the most dangerous bushfire week this nation has ever seen”, and Sydney is now reportedly facing a “catastrophic” fire danger on Tuesday, the highest warning level that’s ever been issued for Australia’s largest city with Bloomberg adding that “as the country’s bushfire season becomes longer and more intense, the threat to lives and homes across the nation has grown.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Predictably the patron saint of environmentalists, Greta Thunberg took to twitter to inform her 3 million followers that “”The numbers don’t lie, and the science is clear. If anyone tells you, ‘This is part of a normal cycle’ or ‘We’ve had fires like this before’, smile politely and walk away, because they don’t know what they’re talking about.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Great was referencing an article in the Sydney Morning Herald, accordint to which “Unprecedented dryness; reductions in long-term rainfall; low humidity; high temperatures; wind velocities; fire danger indices; fire spread and ferocity; instances of pyro-convective fires (fire storms – making their own weather); early starts and late finishes to bushfire seasons. An established long-term trend driven by a warming, drying climate.”

    It was enough for Bloomberg News, which is controlled by fervent environmentalist and now presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg (who has a passion for driving gas guzzling helicopters and criss-crosses the globe in his private jets) to declare without a shadow of doubt that “Australia’s Bushfires Are Getting Worse. And Climate Change Is to Blame.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    How did Bloomberg reach this undisputed conclusion? It’s not exactly clear although the author notes that “Australia is the world’s driest inhabited continent and is considered one of the most vulnerable developed countries to global warming“, a conclusion which just a few weeks ago the world’s environmentalists were making about California.

    According to the Bureau of Meteorology, climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of dangerous bushfire conditions, with the season starting significantly earlier in spring in southern and eastern parts of Australia.

    To add some visual flair to its arguments presented as facts, Bloomberg publishes the following dramatic map of Australia’s brushfire risk.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    And yet, just like in California, one can’t help but wonder if local regulations that have enabled to proliferation of dry kindling by not engaging in controlled fires is to blame; in other words, could it just be another case of local authorities blaming their ineptitude and unwillingness to accept the consequences of their actions on “global warming.”

    Perhaps… but not to the Bloomberg author, who goes so far to even dispense with the politically correct term of “climate change” and insists that this is, in fact, “global warming”, to wit:

    With three people dead and 150 homes destroyed in recent days, and almost million hectares of land burned this season, the fires have thrust the threat posed by global warming back into the headlines in a nation that gets the bulk of its energy from burning coal.

    Yet not everyone has been swept up in the Thunberg-inspired frenzy.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s government, under fire from environmentalists for not doing more to curb emissions, denied that climate change is to blame when asked about the bushfires, something which Bloomberg was eager to dismiss presenting the government’s position as one of a “staunch supporter of the coal-mining industry”, and thus – be definition – an evil enabler of global warming.

    But one person that is certain to attract the personal wrath of each and every Thunberg twitter follower, is Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, who in a radio interview on Monday stated what should have been obvious to all, namely that “we’ve had fires in Australia since time began, and what people need now is sympathy, understanding, help and shelter.”

    And then just to ensure that he becomes the top target for militant environmentalists around the globe, he lashed out saying that all those people for whom the brushfire are a true tragedy, “don’t need the ravings of some pure, enlightened and woke capital-city greenies.”

    This is where Greta would respond along the lines of “how dare you.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    That said, we doubt the “greenies” ravings will be drowned out, even if it was none other than the liberal New York Times that found some time ago that one hundred years of data showed no actual warming trend.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 23:25

  • Will Julian Assange Die In Prison?
    Will Julian Assange Die In Prison?

    Authored by Barbara Boland via TheAmericanConservative.com,

    Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is suffering significant “psychological torture” and abuse in the London prison where he is being held, and his life is now “at risk,” according to an independent UN rights expert. A senior member of his legal team believes Assange may not live until the end of the extradition process.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Assange mumbled, stuttered, and struggled to say his own name and date of birth when he appeared in court on October 21. The Wikileaks founder is being subjected to long drawn-out “psychological torture” as he battles to prevent his extradition to the United States where he faces a slew of espionage charges, warns Nils Melzer, the UN special rapporteur on torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading punishment.

    “Unless the UK urgently changes course and alleviates his inhumane situation, Mr. Assange’s continued exposure to arbitrariness and abuse may soon end up costing his life,” Melzer said in a statement on Friday.

    “His physical appearance was not as shocking as his mental deterioration,” writes former British ambassador Craig Murray, who was present at the October hearing. “When asked to give his name and date of birth, he struggled visibly over several seconds to recall both… his difficulty in making it was very evident; it was a real struggle for him to articulate the words and focus his train of thought… Until yesterday I had always been quietly skeptical of those who claimed that Julian’s treatment amounted to torture… and skeptical of those who suggested he may be subject to debilitating drug treatments. But having attended the trials in Uzbekistan of several victims of extreme torture, and having worked with survivors from Sierra Leone and elsewhere, I can tell you that … Julian exhibited exactly the symptoms of a torture victim brought blinking into the light, particularly in terms of disorientation, confusion, and the real struggle to assert free will through the fog of learned helplessness.”

    “One of the greatest journalists and most important dissidents of our times is being tortured to death by the state, before our eyes. To see my friend, the most articulate man, the fastest thinker, I have ever known, reduced to that shambling and incoherent wreck, was unbearable,” writes Murray.

    Melzer, who is not speaking on behalf of the UN, visited Belmarsh prison in May and conducted an extensive review of Assange’s physical and psychological condition. Melzer told the AFP news agency that his increased alarm is based on “new medically relevant information received from reliable sources” that indicate “Assange’s health has entered a downward spiral of progressively severe anxiety, stress and helplessness typical for persons exposed to prolonged isolation and constant arbitrariness.”

    “While the precise evolution is difficult to predict with certainty, this pattern of symptoms can quickly develop into a life-threatening situation involving cardiovascular breakdown or nervous collapse,” he told AFP.

    Assange is kept in complete isolation for 23 hours a day, and permitted 45 minutes exercise. When he has to be moved, guards clear the corridors and lock all cells to guarantee he has no contact with any other prisoner outside the exercise period.

    Assange “continues to be detained under oppressive conditions of isolation and surveillance, not justified by his detention status,” said Melzer, who pointed out that Assange completed his prison sentence for violating his British bail terms and is “being held exclusively in relation to the pending extradition request from the United States.”

    The US charges that Assange, an Australian citizen, violated the U.S. Espionage Act in 2010 when he published a series of leaks provided by Chelsea Manning. Those leaks include the Afghanistan war logs, the Iraq war logs, the Collateral Murder video, and classified U.S. State Department cables. For her role, Manning was court martialed and sentenced to 35 years in prison. After serving seven and a half years in prison, Manning had her sentence commuted by President Obama, but she has since been jailed again for her refusal to testify against Assange.

    The U.S. has claimed that Wikileaks’ publications have caused the deaths of Americans serving overseas. But no evidence has ever surfaced to prove this, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in 2010 that such claims were “significantly overwrought.”

    Nevertheless, the U.S. wants Assange because the information he published was deeply embarrassing to the government. The British courts have already signed off on an extradition order and he will remain behind bars until the hearing, which isn’t until early next year, according to The New York Times.

    And curiously, even though mainstream media once heralded Assange’s publications, there is substantially less coverage of his current plight, former CIA officer Raymond McGovern told The American Conservative.

    To McGovern, the timing of the U.S. decision to press charges is particularly suspect; charges were announced right after Assange published that the CIA has cyber-tools that can leave a false digital footprint. McGovern, who had visited Assange during his seven-year asylum in the the Ecuadoran embassy, has been a vocal supporter since the beginning.

    “The CIA can hack into a system and make it look like the Russians did it,” said McGovern. This challenges the official narrative that Russians hacked the DNC server, exposing Hillary Clinton’s emails. “Imagine that.”

    The October hearing was Assange’s first public appearance since May. Illness has prevented him from attending previous hearings.

    The UK ignored earlier pleas that to protect Assange’s health and dignity, Melzer said, and his condition has progressed to the point where “his life was now at risk.”

    In fact, when Melzer tried to raise the alarm in the media, The Guardian, The Times, the Financial Times, the Sydney Morning HeraldThe AustralianThe Canberra Times, The TelegraphThe New York Times,The Washington Post, Thomson Reuters Foundation, and Newsweek all refused to publish his op-ed.

    Instead of addressing Assange’s health, “what we have seen from the UK government is outright contempt for Mr. Assange’s rights and integrity,” said Melzer. “Despite the medical urgency of my appeal, and the seriousness of the alleged violations, the UK has not undertaken any measures of investigation, prevention and redress required under international law.”

    Assange has lost 33 pounds during his imprisonment, according to Australian filmmaker John Pilger. He attended the hearing and has visited Assange in Belmarsh prison.

    “To see him in court struggling to say his name, and his date of birth, was really very moving,” said Pilger. “When Julian did try to speak, and to say that basically he was being denied the very tools with which to prepare his case, he was denied the right to call his American lawyer. He was denied the right to have any kind of word processor or laptop. He was denied… his own notes and manuscripts.”

    Assange’s “access to legal counsel and documents has been severely obstructed” undermining “his most fundamental right to prepare his defense,” charged Melzer.

    The judge refused to grant Assange’s request to delay the February trial.

    The lack of legal process in the hearing was “profoundly upsetting,” to watch unfold, writes Murray, because it is “a naked demonstration of the power of the state.”

    “Unless Julian is released shortly he will be destroyed,” writes Murray. “If the state can do this, then who is next?”


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 23:05

  • India's Factory Output And Electricity Demand Plunge To Decade Lows Amid Economic Downturn
    India’s Factory Output And Electricity Demand Plunge To Decade Lows Amid Economic Downturn

    The economic slowdown in India is gaining momentum, new government data Monday shows India’s factory output fell to the lowest level in eight years, resulting in power demand across heavily industrialized states plunging to 12-year lows. 

    Asia’s third-largest economy saw industrial production fall to 4.3% in September YoY, the lowest print since Oct. 2011. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Industrial production recorded the second straight month of declines in factory output as the automobile crisis in the country deepens.

    India’s economic growth slipped to a six-year low of 5% for the April-June period as the automobile industry faces a severe downturn. Consumer demand in recent quarters has also weakened, along with a slowdown in government spending. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The industrial slowdown has resulted in a 13.2% drop in India’s power demand for the October period on a YoY basis, a 12 year low according to the data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

    “The slowdown seems to be deep-rooted, especially in the industrial sector. That would certainly increase the anxiety with regard to growth prospects in the current year,” said N R Bhanumurthy, a professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi.

    Energy consumption in heavily industrialized states, including Maharashtra and Gujarat, led the declines with -20% demand drop in October, over the past year. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    India’s infrastructure output contracted 5.2% last month, one of the worst prints in 14 years, as economists are troubled that aggressive government spending is failing to produce a soft landing in the economy.

    The epicenter of the crisis is situated in the heart of the automobile sector, something we warned about several months ago. 

     


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 22:45

  • America Needs A War On Waste – 100 Examples Of Federal Taxpayer Abuse
    America Needs A War On Waste – 100 Examples Of Federal Taxpayer Abuse

    Via OpenTheBooks.com,

    Dear Mr. President,

    Congratulations. Unfilled jobs are at a record high. Unemployment for Black Americans, Hispanics, Asians, and those with only a high school diploma is at or near record lows. For women, near a 66-year low. For youths, a 50-year low.

    Wages are increasing. Regulations are far less counterproductive. Corporate tax rates are globally competitive.

    Unfortunately, the federal debt continues to explode—a lurking threat to our country as we have known it. When George W. Bush took office, the federal debt, after 225 years, was $5.7 trillion. Since then, only 20 years, the debt has exploded—quadrupled—to close to $23 trillion and is increasing about $4 billion a day. Sadly, no one in government seems to care.

    Mr. President, the world is undergoing exciting changes—the Internet, the Cloud world, Big Data, 5G, the Information Age—all in the birthing process. The potential progress is beyond imagination. These changes give you the tools to tackle this lurking threat. Today, there is no reason why every government expenditure—local, state, and federal—is not online, available real time to the public via cell phone, iPad, or computer. Taxpayers should know how their every dollar is spent. It is their money. Today, we have the ability to do just that.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    MR. PRESIDENT, YOU CAN CREATE A FOUR-STEP NONPARTISAN TRANSPARENCY REVOLUTION.

    You can do for government what Uber and Airbnb did for their industries. They revolutionized their worlds by giving their customers detailed information instantaneously. You can do the same for your customers, the taxpayers, by giving them detailed on-line, real time information on how their money is being spent. Doing so will change who they vote for. Elected officials will be far more likely to inform their constituents of what they have done to eliminate wasted tax dollars rather than some program they put in place to buy votes. This is culture changing. Changes to the culture in government will be far more productive than a top-down budget initiative.

    The Transparency Revolution could drastically reduce the cost of government. Government is a monopoly. It has an administrative class, public employee unions, lacks a profit motive, and does not have to deal with progress. This is a lethal combination when it comes to spending other people’s money. The following page represents but a small sample of wasted tax dollars.

    STEP 1. PUBLICIZE EVERY WHITE HOUSE EXPENDITURE. DIRECT EVERY DEPARTMENT, EVERY AGENCY IN YOUR ADMINISTRATION TO DO THE SAME AND REPORT THEIR PROGRESS TO YOU MONTHLY.

    STEP 2. BEGIN A WAR ON WASTE. Appoint a White House Efficiency Executive to examine every White House expense. Cut every dollar of waste. Have every department, every agency in your administration do the same. Report the progress to you monthly.

    STEP 3. MOBILIZE EVERY GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEE. Our government has many fine, dedicated public servants. They know where the waste and incompetence are. They should be encouraged to report what they see. They should be rewarded with a percentage of the realized savings with a smaller percentage going to their department head. Hold an annual recognition dinner.

    STEP 4. REPORT THE PROGRESS OR LACK THEREOF TO THE PUBLIC MONTHLY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST SIX MONTHS, THEN QUARTERLY FOR THE REST OF YOUR ADMINISTRATION. By reporting frequently, you are telling the public and your administration that the Transparency Revolution, the War on Waste, is a high, ongoing priority.

    Mr. President, fiscal sanity is every bit as crucial to America’s survival as is a strong defense. There are no free lunches, even in government. As a successful businessman, you understand the importance of managing debt.

    Mr. President, you told us that you were going to attack the deficit, drain the so-called Swamp. That is exactly what this Transparency Revolution will do.

    *  *  *

    NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION PAYS TO PUT RUNNING SHRIMP ON A TREADMILL – $1.3 MILLION

    FY2012-FY2017 | NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION | National Science Foundation (NSF) funded an experiment that tested how sickness impaired shrimp mobility by putting the crustaceans on a treadmill made an uproar in the media and in Congress nearly five years ago. Yet the NSF has once again given tax dollars to the same researchers to put the would-be seafood on a cardiovascular workout regime. The investigators – Louis and Karen Burnett – measure the crustaceans’ responses to low oxygen and high carbon dioxide environments in a variety of ways and would also test their reactions “when performing energetically demanding activities,” according to the award abstract. “The energetically demanding activities will be conducted with the aid of a treadmill, as the technique is effective and will help to make the data comparable to previous studies,” Arriens said.

    LOBSTER TAIL & SNOW CRAB PURCHASES — $25.4 MILLION

    FY2017-2018 | DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE | As the fiscal year wrapped up, federal agencies celebrated by splurging on luxury food items. The Department of Defense (DOD) originally reported spending $2.3 million on snow crab, Alaskan king crab, and crab legs and claws, plus another $2.3 million on lobster tail. Additionally, agencies spent nearly $300,000 on steak (ribeye, top sirloin, and flank). However, the DOD admitted to inflated disclosures. Their updated numbers reveal lobster and crab purchases amounted to $1.6 million in September 2018 and $25.4 million during an 18-month period. We have additional questions for the agency. Here is a video showing our data download and quantification of $2.3 million (Sept 2018) and $22.1 million (FY2018) in lobster tail purchases as reported by the DOD to the federal government’s official transparency portal at USAspending.gov.

    MISTAKES & IMPROPER PAYMENTS DISTRIBUTED BY 20 FEDERAL AGENCIES – $1.5 TRILLION

    FY2004–FY2019 | OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT & BUDGET | Congressional Research Service released a report on July 16, 2018, titled “Improper Payments in High-Priority Programs: In Brief.” Garrett Hatch, a specialist in American National Government, authored the report. In the summary, Hatch writes, “Over the period of FY2004 through FY2017, high priority improper payments have totaled $1.2 trillion.” Between FY2017 and FY2019 inclusive, the reports compiled by the Office of Management & Budget show that the agencies admit to approximately $140 billion per year in improper payments. Our reporting published at Forbes.

    DEAD PEOPLE RECEIVED MISTAKEN & IMPROPER PAYMENTS – $921 MILLION

    FY2018 | MULTIPLE FEDERAL AGENCIES | Dead people received $1 billion in benefits. Medicare, Medicaid, social security payments and also the federal retirement annuity payouts (pensions) kept flowing to dead recipients. Our reporting published at Forbes.

    EXPENSIVE COFFEE CUPS: THE PENTAGON PAYS MORE THAN $1,000 FOR A SINGLE COFFEE CUP

    FY2018 | U.S. AIR FORCE | The Pentagon admitted to spending $1,220 on a single coffee cup. According to Travis Air Force Base Website. “In 2016, the 60th Aerial Port Squadron purchased 10 hot cups for $9,630. The price for each cup surged from $693 to $1,220 in 2018 resulting in a total expenditure of $32,000 for 25 cups. That’s a price jump of $527 per cup which leads to some pricey hot water,” (July 2018).

    LIVING EXPENSE TAX DEDUCTION FOR MEMBERS OF CONGRESS — $1.6 MILLION

    FY2019 | INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE | U.S. Senator Joni Ernst introduced the Stop Questionable, Unnecessary, and Excessive Allowances for Legislators Act, also known as the SQUEAL Act, to cut perks for elected officials and make Washington squeal. This legislation would eliminate a provision of the tax code that allows Members of Congress to deduct, for income tax purposes, up to $3,000 annually in living expenses while in the Washington, D.C. area.

    MISTAKES & IMPROPER MEDICARE PAYMENTS – $491.9 BILLION

    FY2004–FY2019 | HEALTH & HUMAN SERVICES | Congressional Research Service released a report on July 16, 2018, titled “Improper Payments in High-Priority Programs: In Brief.” Garrett Hatch, a specialist in American National Government, authored the report. On page CRS-5, table 2 shows Medicare (Fee for Service) improper payments amounted to $387 billion between FY2004-FY2017. The Office of Management & Budget updated the improper payment amounts for FY2018 and FY2019: yielding a total of $491.9 billion since FY2004.

    SEX ED FOR PROSTITUTES IN CALIFORNIA – $1.4 MILLION

    FY2016 | BARBARA LEE | CALIFORNIA–13 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 5, the report details the $1.4 million grant to the California Prostitutes Education Project from the Department of Health and Human Services.

    2020 STUDENT LOANS (ESTIMATED BAD DEBT LOSS) — $17 BILLION

    FY2020 | CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE (CBO) | The CBO forecasts that the 2020 student loan portfolio will cost the U.S. taxpayer $17.6 billion. ED will loan $102 billion via six college loan programs and the taxpayer subsidy will amount to 17.3% of all money lent in FY2020.

    GROUNDED MOON ROCKET COST OVERRUN — $2.79 BILLION

    FY2012—FY2019 | NASA | NASA will spend $8.9 billion in tax dollars on the Space Launch System (primarily through a Boeing contract), which is $2.7 billion more than the original estimate. A report found that the project’s problems “can be traced largely to management, technical, and infrastructure issues driven by Boeing’s poor performance” yet NASA awarded Boeing $323 million in performance bonuses.

    USE IT OR LOSE IT SPENDING – $97 BILLION

    FINAL MONTH FY2018 | ALL FEDERAL AGENCIES | In the final month of fiscal year 2018, 67 federal agencies spent $97 billion to close out their budgets. It was a massive shop-until-you-drop, taxpayer funded spending spree. Our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com found that roughly one out of every nine dollars in federal contracts disclosed by the executive and military agencies in FY2018 was spent during last week of the fiscal year. Eight departments – including the Departments of Defense, Health and Human Services, Energy, Veterans Affairs, Homeland Security, State, and Justice – each spent over $1 billion. These findings were aired in a 30-minute interview on C-SPAN’s Washington Journal and published in our oversight report.

    PREPARING RELIGIONS FOR DISCOVERY OF EXTRATERRESTRIAL LIFE – $1.1 MILLION

    FY2017 | NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION | In 2017, Arizona Senator Jeff Flake published a waste book report. On page 58, the report details the $1.1 million NASA spent enlisting theologians to answer how the world’s religions would respond if extraterrestrial life were discovered.  

    AIRPORT AT MARTHA’S VINEYARD – $19 MILLION

    FY2016—FY2020 | DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION | On May 3, 2018, we published an editorial at Fox News Online titled, “Just how much federal waste, duplication and weird or unnecessary spending are your tax dollars funding?” The editorial quantifies the $9.2 million in federal grants that flowed to the private airport on Martha’s Vineyard in FY2016. Since then, we updated the figures through 2020.

    AUTHORIZED BY CONGRESS & UNSPENT BY AGENCIES — $15 BILLION

    FY2018 | Rescissions submitted by EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT (EOP) | From EOP: The attached rescission proposals include unobligated balances from prior-year appropriations and reductions to budget authority for mandatory programs. These proposals include rescissions of funding that is no longer needed for the purpose for which it was appropriated by the Congress; in many cases, these funds have been left unspent by agencies for years. These proposals also include rescissions of low priority and unnecessary Federal spending.

    2020 U.S. CENSUS COST OVERRUN — $3.3 BILLION

    FY2012—FY2023 | U.S. CENSUS BUREAU | Project:  The 2020 national population count conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau is more than $3 billion over budget and will be the most expensive in U.S. history and government auditors are warning that the current cost estimate is not reliable. Original Cost Estimate:  $12.3 billion in 2015. Current Cost Estimate:  $15.6 billion. Project Began:  2012. Original Completion Date:  September 2023. Federal Spending:  $15.6 billion

    STUDY: HOW FACEBOOK AFFECTS ALCOHOL USE – $147,686

    FY2016 | JIM MCDERMOTT | WASHINGTON–7 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 7, the report details the $147,686 grant given to the University of Washington from the Department of Health and Human Services.

    SPACE RACERS: AN ANIMATED CHILDREN’S CARTOON – $2.5 MILLION

    FY2016 | MO BROOKS | ALABAMA–5 | REPUBLICAN | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 7, the report details the $2.5 million grant given to the Alabama Space Science Exhibit Commission from NASA. 

    FURNITURE BINGE 2018 USE IT LOSE IT — $491 MILLION

    FINAL MONTH FY2018 | MULTIPLE FEDERAL AGENCIES | In the final month of fiscal year 2018, Federal agencies spent a half billion dollars on furniture to close out their budgets. It was a massive shop-until-you-drop, taxpayer funded spending spree. To Redecorate – federal agencies signed nearly 10,000 contracts to purchase furniture. Notably, the Department of Defense spent $9,341 on a Wexford leather club chair. Our findings published at Forbes.

    MISTAKES & IMPROPER MEDICAID PAYMENTS – $306.6 BILLION

    FY2004–FY2019 | HEALTH & HUMAN SERVICES | Congressional Research Service released a report on July 16, 2018, titled “Improper Payments in High-Priority Programs: In Brief.” Garrett Hatch, a specialist in American National Government, authored the report. On page CRS-5, table 2 shows Medicaid improper payments amounted to $234 billion between FY2004-FY2017. Our auditors updated the numbers through FY2019 using disclosures published by the Office of Management & Budget.

    GRANTS (SUBSIDIZES) TO FORTUNE 100 COMPANIES — $3.2 BILLION

    FY2014—FY2017 | MULTIPLE FEDERAL AGENCIES | Our auditors quantified a four-year period during which Fortune 100 companies spent $2 billion lobbying Capitol Hill and received $3.2 billion in federal grants (2014-2017). These grants, or subsidies, are funded by the American taxpayer.  our organization at OpenTheBooks.com released our oversight report, Federal Funding of Fortune 100 Companies. We launched this report on C-SPAN’s Washington Journal and published at Forbes.

    FUNDING TOP 25 COLLEGES WITH LARGEST ENDOWMENTS — $6.9 BILLION

    FY2017—FY2018 | DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION | The wealthiest colleges received nearly $7 billion in federal subsidies last year. The top 25 universities with largest endowments (collectively $272 billion) reaped $7 billion in federal student aid. Rich schools are getting richer and taxpayers paid for it. Wealthy colleges must make themselves affordable. Our findings published at Forbes and in our oversight report.

    FANCY ROCK SCULPTURE – $482,960

    FY2016 | DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS | After a joint investigation with COX Media Washington, D.C., OpenTheBooks published an editorial at Forbes on July 26, 2016, titled “The VA’s Luxury Art Obsession.” The editorial exposed the Department of Veterans Affairs’ array of luxury artwork, including a fancy rock sculpture costing $482,960.

    TALKING TO SAGUARO CACTUS – $10,000

    FY2016 | NATIONAL FOUNDATION ON THE ARTS AND HUMANITIES | In July 2017, we published our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities, detailing numerous examples of wasteful grant making by the National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities. On page 10, the report details the $10,000 grant to the Collage Dance Theatre in Los Angeles. Our report launched on the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal in a column by Roger Kimball.

    USING SOAP OPERAS TO REDUCE HIV IN URBAN BLACK WOMEN – $567,529

    FY2016 | MIKE CAPUANO | MASSACHUSETTS–7 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 7, the report details the $567,529 grant given to Northeastern University from the Department of Health and Human Services.

    EARNED INCOME AND MISTAKEN TAX PAYMENTS– $18.8 BILLION

    FY2019 | INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE | Millions of low-income families who Congress designated as qualified recipients were overpaid billions of dollars. The program is rife with errors: the government overpaid $1 in every $4 to beneficiaries. (The IRS administers the program and responded to our request for comment here.) Our auditors used disclosures published by the Office of Management & Budget. Our findings published at Forbes.

    FEDERAL FUNDING INTO THE 50 WORST JUNIOR COLLEGES — $923.5 MILLION

    FY2017—FY2018 | DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION | $1 billion in taxpayer subsidies flowed to the 50 worst performing junior colleges as ranked by WalletHub last year. The 10 worst junior colleges had an average graduation rate of 12 percent. Students aren’t graduating. Yet, they’re saddled with large debts. Our findings published at Forbes and in our oversight report.

    PR CONTRACTS 2018 USE-IT-OR-LOSE-IT SPENDING SPREE – $462 MILLION

    FINAL MONTH OF FY2018 | MULTIPLE FEDERAL AGENCIES | $462 Million Self Promotion Machine – Federal agencies spent millions on public relations, marketing research and public opinion, communications, and advertising in the final month of fiscal year 2018. The feds already employ 5,000 public affairs officers. It wasn’t enough. Our findings published at Forbes. 

    UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE MISTAKEN & IMPROPER OVERPAYMENTS — $3.6 BILLION

    FY2019 | DEPARTMENT OF LABOR | Unemployment insurance recipients received $3.6 billion in over payments administered by the states through the Department of Labor. The feds blame the states for lax oversight and program management: *The Department of Labor has been aggressively working with states to address unemployment insurance improper payments, providing intensive oversight and technical assistance to states with the highest improper payment rates and providing tools and resources to help all states better prevent, detect, and recover improper payments. Our findings published at Forbes.

    BUYING BOOZE FOR EMBASSIES AROUND THE WORLD – $308,994

    FINAL MONTH FY2018 | STATE DEPARTMENT & DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE | On October 3, 2018, we published an editorial at Forbes, titled “Use It or Lose It – Trump’s Agencies Spent $11 Billion Last Week in Year-End Spending Spree.” Using data compiled by OpenTheBooks.com via the Freedom of Information Act, we quantified $79,000 in alcohol expenditures at the Department of State between September 24 and 30, 2017. We updated the numbers for FY2018 in this piece published at Forbes: For some agencies, the end of the fiscal year seems to be one big party. The Department of Defense and the Department of State purchased beer, wine, and whiskey. Contract recipients included Coors Brewing Company ($76,173); E&J Gallo Winery ($16,510), and more.

    PERFORMANCE BONUSES – 99.6% OF FEDERAL WORKFORCE RATED “FULLY SUCCESSFUL” — $4.4 BILLION

    FY2016—FY2019 | ALL FEDERAL AGENCIES | Approximately $1.1 billion in federal performance bonuses were withheld from disclosure in FY2016. All federal performance bonuses are shielded by anti-transparency language inserted into federal union contracts. According to the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, performance bonuses are sometimes based on salary amount and performance rating, and disclosure may allow others to determine an employee’s rating. According to a Government Accountability Office audit using 2013 data, 99.6 percent of all federal workers received job performance ratings of “fully successful.” That’s a higher rating than the advertised purity of Ivory soap (99.3 percent).

    2020 SBA LENDING (ESTIMATED BAD DEBT LOSS) — $4 BILLION

    FY2020 | CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE | The CBO forecasts that the 2020 SBA loan portfolio will cost the U.S. taxpayer $4 billion. The SBA will loan $44 billion via seven loan programs and the taxpayer subsidy will amount to 9.5% of all money lent in FY2020.

    FLEET OF ARMORED VEHICLES – $1.5 MILLION

    FY2017 | DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES | On October 3, 2018, we published an editorial at Forbes, titled “Use It or Lose It – Trump’s Agencies Spent $11 Billion Last Week in Year-End Spending Spree.” Using data compiled by OpenTheBooks.com via the Freedom of Information Act, we identified a $1.5 million contract between Square One and the Department of Health and Human Services during the week of September 24 through 30, 2018.

    SUPPORTED GREEN GROWTH IN PERU — $10 MILLION

    FY2019 | U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT | USAID is committing up to 10 million American taxpayer dollars to develop new and innovative Alliances with the private sector that advance environmentally-friendly economic development (i.e. green growth) in Peru. The envisioned activities will facilitate private sector financing andinvestment in value chains that lead to improved management of natural resources. 

    RENOVATION BOONDOOGLE FOR NEW HOMELAND SECURITY HEADQUARTERS — $2.1 BILLION

    Through FY2019 | HOMELAND SECURITY, GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION | Trying to turn around an abandoned mental hospital into a new DHS headquarters, the General Services Administration (GSA) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) have been attempting, since 2005 and at a cost of more than $2.1 billion to the taxpayer, to establish a headquarters for DHS on parts of the property. This effort includes creating office space for the Office of Secretary of Homeland Security and other crucial senior personnel in the West Campus’ main building.

    HIPSTER PARTIES – $5 MILLION

    FY2015 | NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH | In 2015, Arizona Senator Jeff Flake published a wastebook report. On page 11, the report details the $5 million the federal government spent funding “hipster parties.”

    VIRTUAL REALITY TO TEACH CHILDREN IN CHINA HOW TO CROSS THE STREET – $183,750

    FY2016 | TERRI SEWELL | ALABAMA–7 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 7, the report details the $183,750 grant given to the University of Alabama Birmingham from the Department of Health and Human Services.

    TAI CHI FOR THE ELDERLY – $696,723

    FY2016 | MIKE CAPUANO | MASSACHUSETTS–7 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 8, the report details the $696,723 grant given to the Hebrew Rehabilitation Center for the Elderly from the Department of Health and Human Services.

    MISTAKES & IMPROPER STUDENT LOANS AND GRANTS – $11 BILLION

    FY2017–FY2018 | DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION | ED lacks basic in-house financial accounting controls, and admits to overpaying $11 billion in Pell grants and student loans over the last two-years. About four percent of all student loans and eight percent of all Pell grants are overpaid. Our oversight published at Forbes.

    27’ ARTIFICIAL CHRISTMAS TREE – $21,500

    FY2016 | DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS | In a joint investigation with COX Media Washington, D.C., OpenTheBooks published an editorial at Forbes on July 26, 2016, titled “The VA’s Luxury Art Obsession.” The editorial exposed the Department of Veterans Affairs’ array of luxury artwork purchases over a ten-year period cost taxpayers $20 million, including a 27-foot artificial Christmas tree. Our story was aired on Good Morning America and ABC World News Tonight. Senate Judiciary Chairman Charles Grassley wrote an oversight letter to then-VA Secretary Robert McDonald, who apologized for the purchases and instituted new rules to stop the purchases on a go-forward basis.

    BOGUS BONUSES RELATED TO F-35 SPARE PARTS SHORTAGE — $303 MILLION

    FY2019 | INSPECTOR GENERAL DEFENSE DEPARTMENT | “We determined that the DoD did not receive RFI F35 spare parts in accordance with contract requirements and paid performance incentive fees on the sustainment contracts based on inflated and unverified F35A aircraft availability hours. As a result, the DoD received nonRFI spare parts and spent up to $303 million in DoD labor costs since 2015, and it will continue to pay up to $55 million annually for nonRFI spare parts until the nonRFI spare parts issue is resolved.”

    AVERAGE FEDERAL EMPLOYEE RECEIVES 43 DAYS PAID TIME OFF – $22.6 BILLION

    FY2016 | U.S. OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT | Our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – Mapping the Swamp quantified the taxpayer cost of federal employees’ benefits package. In the report, there is a section titled “Time Off and Benefits,” beginning on page 11. The average federal bureaucrat receives 10 holidays, 13 sick days, and 20 vacation days. That’s 43 days of paid time off each year.

    160,000 DEFAULTED SBA LOANS – $24.2 BILLION

    SINCE 2000 | SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION | In September 2016, we published our OpenTheBooks Snapshot Oversight Report – Truth in Lending, quantifying the 160,000 defaulted Small Business Administration (SBA) loans doled out between 2000 and 2015, costing taxpayers $24.2 billion. Search all bad loans in your own ZIP Code, or any ZIP Code across America, on our interactive mapping platform.

    COSTS 7 CENTS TO MAKE A NICKLE — $150 MILLION

    FY2019 | U.S. MINT | It currently costs 2.06 cents to make each penny and 7.53 cents to make each nickel. In other words, American taxpayers lose money every time the U.S. Mint produces one of those coins.

    It might sound funny, but so many coins are produced annually that the cost actually adds up. Based on estimates from numbers in the U.S. Mint’s annual report, taxpayers lost about $85.4 million from penny production and $33.5 million from nickel production last year. Over the next decade, taxpayers would save $150 million. Source: here.

    FROG MATING CALL STUDY IN PANAMA — $404,991

    FY2019 | NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION | The National Science Foundation spent a significant portion of a grant totaling $466,991 on studying the mating call of the male tungara frog of Panama. In a look at the effects of urbanization, the study examined the differences between the mating call in the city and in the forest, including the likelihood of attracting midges and bats.

    SUPERSTORM SANDY FALSE-CLAIM VEHICLE DAMAGE PAYMENTS TO NYC — $5.3 MILLION

    FY2019 | FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY | The problems began when the New York City Department of Transportation (NYCDOT) submitted a list of claims to FEMA for a total of $12,758,664 in reimbursement for vehicles, all of which it claimed were damaged by the storm. However, “many of the vehicles” instead were already “non-operational — and some had even been marked for salvage —years before Sandy,” The federal government stated in its complaint. The government also made it clear that proper oversight was ignored every step of the way. Source: here.

    IVY LEAGUE COLLEGES – $42 BILLION

    FY2010–2015 | FEDERAL PAYMENTS, SUBSIDIES, TAX–BREAKS | ALL FEDERAL AGENCIES | In March 2017, we published our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – Ivy League, Inc. In this report, we quantified all federal payments, subsidies, and tax breaks for the eight Ivy League schools between FY2010-FY2015. The Ivy League schools have $120 billion in accumulated endowment funds. Our findings launched on the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal in a column by James Piereson and Naomi Schaefer-Riley titled, Ivy League Doesn’t Need Taxpayer Help. Our findings were also cited in the Boston Globe as providing research to congress as they instituted a new ‘excessive endowments’ tax in December 2017.

    USING E–DIARIES TO COPE WITH MICROAGGRESSIONS – $173,089

    FY2016 | ADAM KINZINGER | ILLINOIS–16 | REPUBLICAN | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 6, the report details the $173,089 grant to Northern Illinois University from the Department of Health and Human Services for these e-diaries.

    DANCING WITH 15–FOOT FISH – $10,000

    FY2016 | NATIONAL FOUNDATION ON THE ARTS AND HUMANITIES | In July 2017, we published our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities, detailing numerous examples of wasteful grant making by the National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities. On page 10, the report details the $10,000 grant to the Collage Dance Theatre in Los Angeles.

    MEDITATION BREATHING MOBILE APP – $687,989

    FY2016 | JIM CLYBURN | SOUTH CAROLINA–6 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 6, the report details the $687,989 grant to the Medical University of South Carolina from the Department of Health and Human Services.

    FUNDING A FREQUENTLY INVESTIGATED CHILDCARE FACILITY IN TEXAS – $32.6 MILLION

    FY2013-2020 | DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 6, the report details the $5 million in federal grant dollars given to the Shiloh Treatment Center in FY2016 alone. NPR investigated this center and allegations of medicating children. Recently, we updated the numbers to cover the fiscal years 2013 through 2020.

    WHERE IT HURTS THE MOST TO BE STUNG BY BEE – $1 MILLION

    FY2015 | NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION | Senator Jeff Flake from Arizona published a report, titled “Twenty Questions: Government Studies That Will Leave You Scratching Your Head.” On page 7, the report details the $1 million grant from the National Science Foundation for a study asking “Where does it hurt the most to be stung by a bee?”

    MISTAKEN & IMPROPER SBA LENDING — $1.8 BILLION

    FY2018—FY2019 | SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION | The SBA also has a problem with basic internal financial controls and admitted to $924.5 million in improperly paid “over payments” just last year. The agency cited its “inability to authenticate [borrower] eligibility,” and “administrative or process errors made by the agency.” Our findings were published at Forbes.

    SUBSIDIZED LENDING TO WALL STREET BANKERS — $12 BILLION

    FY2014—FY2018 | SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION | A significant portion of SBA lending didn’t go to Main Street; it went to Wall Street. In fact, $12.2 billion in lending flowed to highly capitalized venture capital, mezzanine finance firms, private investor funds and investment pools. That’s not small business.

    35,780 FEDERAL LAWYERS – $14.3 BILLION

    FY2016—FY2018 | OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT | Our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – Mapping the Swamp analyzed the most popular and taxpayer expensive federal employee job titles. On page 16, there is a case study detailing the annual taxpayer cost ($4.8 billion) of employing 35,212 federal lawyers. Only 12,000 of those lawyers are pursuing crime and criminals at the Department of Justice. Recently, we updated the numbers for all the years between FY2016 and FY2018.

    IRS PURCHASE OF 4,600 GUNS & 5M ROUNDS OF AMMUNITION – INCLUDING 621 SHOTGUNS, 539 RIFLES & 15 SUBMACHINE GUNS — $15.5 MILLION

    FY2006—FY2017 | INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE | In December 2018, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) published a report to congress quantifying purchases of $1.5 billion in firearms, ammunition, and tactical equipment by federal agencies outside of the Pentagon (FY2010-FY2017). These findings were consistent with our oversight published at The Wall Street Journal in summer 2016, which found 67 federal agencies outside of the Department of Defense purchased $1.4 billion in guns, ammunition, and military-style equipment (FY2006-FY2014).

    LUXURY ARTWORK PURCHASES – $20 MILLION

    FY2007–FY2016 | DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS | In a joint investigation with COX Media Washington, D.C., OpenTheBooks published an editorial at Forbes on July 26, 2016, titled “The VA’s Luxury Art Obsession.” The editorial exposed the Department of Veterans Affairs’ array of luxury artwork purchases over a ten-year period cost taxpayers $20 million. Our story was aired on Good Morning America and ABC World News Tonight. Senate Judiciary Chairman Charles Grassley wrote an oversight letter to then-VA Secretary Robert McDonald, who apologized for the purchases and instituted new rules to stop the purchases on a go-forward basis.

    3,390 FEDERAL PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICERS – $1.1 BILLION

    FY2016—FY2018 | 202 FEDERAL AGENCIES | OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT | Our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – Mapping the Swamp analyzed the most popular and taxpayer expensive federal employee job titles. On page 17, there is a case study detailing the annual taxpayer cost ($368.4 million) of employing 3,618 federal public affairs officers. There are approximately 5,000 public relations officers employed by all federal agencies, but only 3,618 are disclosed. Recently, we updated the numbers in fiscal years 2016 through 2018.

    STUDY: ARE PHYSICIAN TRAINEES RACIST? – $932,741

    FY2016 | TIM WALZ | MINNESOTA–1 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 9, the report details the $932,741 grant given to Mayo Clinic from the Department of Health and Human Services.

    PREVENTING TEEN PREGNANCY THROUGH THEATER – $749,000

    FY2016 | CHAKA FATTAH | PENNSYLVANIA–2 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 9, the report details the $749,000 grant given to the Public Health Management Corporation from the Department of Health and Human Services.

    VIRTUAL SHOE–FITTING – $902,789

    FY2015-2016 | MORGAN GRIFFITH | VIRGINIA–9 | REPUBLICAN | ANNA ESHOO | CALIFORNIA-18 |  DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 10, the report details the $753,502 grant given to Eclo, Inc. from the National Science Foundation. A representative from Rep. Griffith’s office reached out to us, claiming Rep. Griffith was not responsible for this grant. Read Rep. Griffith’s office’s argument here. Rep. Griffith’s office sent a cease and desist letter to our office and we issued a response. Read our response letter here. Recently, we updated the numbers and the total grants amounted to $902,789.

    VIDEO GAME: THE LOGICAL JOURNEY OF THE ZOOMBINIS – $658,388

    FY2016 | KATHERINE CLARK | MASSACHUSSETS–5 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 11, the report details the $658,388 grant given to Technical Education Research Centers, Inc. from the National Science Foundation.

    650 FEDERAL GARDENERS & LANDSCAPERS – $127.1 MILLION

    FY2016—FY2018 | U.S. OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT | Our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – Mapping the Swamp analyzed the most popular and taxpayer expensive federal employee job titles. On page 18, there is a case study detailing the annual taxpayer cost ($44 million) of employing 650 federal gardeners and landscapers. Recently, we updated the numbers to reflect the cost during fiscal years 2016 through 2018.

    SBA LOANS TO EXCLUSIVE CLUBS (COUNTRY CLUBS, YACHT CLUBS, ETC.) – $281 MILLION

    FY2007–FY2018 | SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION | In September 2016, we published our OpenTheBooks Snapshot Oversight Report – Truth in Lending, detailing examples of the Small Business Administration (SBA) doling out small business loans to country clubs, yacht clubs, golf courses, and other exclusive entities. This continued our oversight we kicked off in 2014 of the SBA. Recently, we updated the numbers and published the results at Forbes. Since FY2007, our auditors quantified more than $280 million in lending to private country clubs, beach clubs, swim clubs, tennis clubs and yacht clubs across America. In the past five years, $120 million flowed to these exclusive clubs.

    HISTORIC HOBO DAY – $11,987

    FY2016 | KRISTI NOEM | SOUTH DAKOTA–1 | REPUBLICAN | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 8, the report details the $11,987 grant given to South Dakota State University from the National Endowment for the Arts.

    STUDY: DISEASE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF TRANSLOCATING TORTOISES – $350,773

    FY2016 | GLENN THOMPSON | PENNSYLVANIA–5 | REPUBLICAN | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 12, the report details the $350,773 grant given to Pennsylvania State University from the National Science Foundation.

    MOBILE APP FOR SEX DIARY – $1 MILLION

    FY2016 | GRACE NAPOLITANO | CALIFORNIA–32 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 12, the report details the $1 million grant given to Public Health Foundation Enterprises, Inc. from the Department of Health and Human Services.

    CONVINCING MOTHERS TO STOP TEEN GIRLS FROM USING TANNING BEDS – $671,522 

    FY2016 | ED PERLMUTTER | COLORADO–7 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 12, the report details the $671,522 grant to Klein Buendel, Inc. from the Department of Health and Human Services.

    279 FEDERAL INTERIOR DESIGNERS AT VETERANS AFFAIRS – $67.1 MILLION

    FY2016—FY2018 | U.S. OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT | Our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – Mapping the Swamp analyzed the most popular and taxpayer expensive federal employee job titles. On page 16, there is a case study detailing the annual taxpayer cost ($22 million) of employing 270 federal interior designers. Recently, we updated the numbers at the VA through fiscal years 2016—2018. 

    LENDING TO MILLIONAIRES: 40,000 $1M+ LOANS — $94 BILLION

    FY2014—FY2018 | SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION | We discovered 40,000 recipients received $1 million plus during fiscal years 2014 through 2018. Since 2007, there were 75,000 recipients receiving $1 million or more. Last year, there were 9,332 recipients, up from 8,275 the previous year. We mapped all of them – recipients of the SBA’s $1+ million loans – by ZIP Code across the country. Search your own neighborhood. Just click a pin (ZIP Code) on our interactive search tool and scroll down to see the results rendered in the chart beneath the map.

    MISTAKES & IMPROPER FARM SUBSIDY PAYMENTS – $3.7 BILLION

    FY2004–FY2017 | DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE | Congressional Research Service released a report on July 16, 2018, titled “Improper Payments in High-Priority Programs: In Brief.” Garrett Hatch, a specialist in American National Government, authored the report. On page CRS-5, table 2 shows USDA Crop Insurance improper payments amounted to $3.7 billion between FY2004-FY2017. 

    HEALTH & HUMAN SERVICES (HHS) PURCHASE OF 1,300 GUNS & 4M ROUNDS OF AMMUNITION – INCLUDING 1 SHOTGUN, 5 SUBMACHINE GUNS & 189 AUTOMATIC FIREARMS – MILLION$

    FY2006—FY2017 | HEALTH & HUMAN SERVICES

    In December 2018, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) published a report to congress quantifying purchases of $1.5 billion in firearms, ammunition, and tactical equipment by federal agencies outside of the Pentagon (FY2010-FY2017). These findings were consistent with our oversight published at The Wall Street Journal in summer 2016, which found 67 federal agencies outside of the Department of Defense purchased $1.4 billion in guns, ammunition, and military-style equipment (FY2006-FY2014).Specific to HHS, the agency has resisted transparency to specifically quantify how much they have spent.

    FARM SUBSIDIES INTO URBAN AREAS – $626 MILLION

    FY2015–2017 | POPULATION OVER 250K | U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE | Our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – Harvesting U.S. Farm Subsidies, released August 2018, quantifies all federal farm subsidies flowing to urban areas with populations exceeding 250,000 between FY2015-FY2017.

    VIDEO GAME FOR YOUR FUTURE–SELF – $1.4 MILLION

    FY2014—FY2018 | ROBERT WITTMAN | VIRGINIA–1 | REPUBLICAN | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 8, the report details the $651,498 grant given to Research and Evaluation Solutions, Inc. from the Department of Health and Human Services. A representative from Rep. Wittman’s office reached out to us, claiming Rep. Wittman was not responsible for this grant. Read Rep. Wittman’s office’s argument here. Our auditor’s updated the numbers to reflect fiscal years 2014 through 2018.

    RESEARCHING STIGMATIZATION OF DANISH SMOKERS – $330,176

    FY2016 | LOU BARLETTA | PENNSYLVANIA–11 | REPUBLICAN | OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 11, the report details the $330,176 grant given to Dickinson College from the Department of Health and Human Services.

    MEASURING BLOOD PRESSURE AT BLACK BARBERSHOPS – $2.1 MILLION

    FY2016 | ADAM SCHIFF | CALIFORNIA–28 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 13, the report details the $2.1 million grant given to Cedars-Sinai Medical Center from the Department of Health and Human Services.

    389 FARM SUBSIDY RECIPIENTS OF $1 MILLION+ – $667 MILLION

    FY2017 | U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE | Our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – Harvesting U.S. Farm Subsidies, released August 2018, quantifies the number of federal farm subsidy recipients pulling down $1 million or more in fiscal year FY2017 payments. Reviewing those farming entities who received over $1 million during the past 10-years (since 2008), we found over 6,600 entities received up to $23 million. Search our interactive map of all $1 million recipients of federal farm subsidies from over 60 USDA programs displayed by ZIP Code across America.

    EPIDEMIC SIMULATION GAME FOR HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS – $350,236

    FY2016 | DAVID MCKINLEY | WEST VIRGINIA–1 | REPUBLICAN | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 14, the report details the $350,236 grant given to Wheeling Jesuit University from the Department of Health and Human Services. 

    HOW AIR POLLUTION AFFECTS BIRTH BY RACE – $788,664

    FY2016 | JERRY MCNERNEY | CALIFORNIA–9 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 14, the report details the $788,664 grant given to the University of California at Berkeley from the Environmental Protection Agency. 

    VIRTUAL WEIGHT LOSS GAME – $228,830

    FY2016 | HENRY JOHNSON, JR. | GEORGIA–4 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 16, the report details the $228,830 grant given to Virtually Better, Inc. from the Department of Health and Human Services.

    SMARTPHONE APP FOR PARKING YOUR CAR – $149,999

    FY2016 | KRYSTEN SINEMA | ARIZONA–9 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 16, the report details the $149,999 grant given to Arizona State University from the National Science Foundation. 

    REFRAMING BELIEFS ABOUT DEATH & DYING AMONG LATINOS – $882,841

    FY2015 | CORNELL UNIVERSITY | NATIONAL INSITUTES OF HEALTH, HEALTH & HUMAN SERVICES In March 2017, we published our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – Ivy League, Inc. The report includes examples of wasteful grants doled out by the government to the Ivy League colleges. On page 16, the report details the $882,841 in grants given to Cornell University from the National Institutes of Health and the Department of Health and Human Services. 

    PAYMENTS TO GAY MEXICAN PROSTITUTES FOR SAFE SEX – $53,419

    FY2015 | BROWN UNIVERSITY | NATIONAL INSITUTES OF HEALTH | In March 2017, we published our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – Ivy League, Inc. The report includes examples of wasteful grants doled out by the government to the Ivy League colleges. On page 15, the report details the $53,419 grant given to Brown University from the National Institutes of Health.

    12 MEMBERS OF CONGRESS COLLECTED FARM SUBSIDY PAYMENTS – $637,059

    FY2017 | U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE | When conducting research for our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – Harvesting U.S. Farm Subsidies, released August 2018, our team found 12 members of Congress collecting farm subsidy payments in FY2017. These members of congress sit on the agriculture committee, craft farm policy, vote on the subsidies, and then collect the subsidies. Our Honorary Chairman Dr. Tom Coburn, while in congress, complained to the ethics committee.

    NON–MILITARY AGENCIES PURCHASE GUNS, AMMUNITION, AND MILITARY–STYLE EQUIPMENT – $2.2 BILLION

    FY2006–FY2017 | 67 NON–MILITARY FEDERAL AGENCIES | In July 2016, we published our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – The Militarization of America, quantifying all non-military federal agency purchases of guns, ammunition, and military-style equipment between FY2006-FY2014. On October 20, 2017, we published updated numbers (FY2006-FY2017) in an editorial at Forbes, titled “Why Are Federal Bureaucrats Buying Guns and Ammo? $158 Million Spent by Non-Military Agencies.”

    CLIMATE CHANGE VOICEMAILS FROM THE FUTURE (2020—2065) – $5.7 MILLION

    FY2012 | COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY | NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION | In March 2017, we published our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – Ivy League, Inc. The report includes examples of wasteful grants doled out by the government to the Ivy League colleges. On page 15, the report details the $5.7 million grant given to Columbia University from the National Science Foundation. 

    NEW CONDOM DESIGN WITH MORE LUBRICATION – $1.1 MILLION

    FY2016—FY2019 | JOSEPH KENNEDY III | MASSACHUSETTS–4 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 6, the report details the $200,601 grant given to Hydroglyde Coatings from the Department of Health and Human Services. Recently, we updated the numbers to include fiscal years 2016 through 2019.

    FUNDING CHRISTIAN SEMINARIES TO MINT PASTORS & PRIESTS — $815 MILLION

    FY2014—FY2017 | DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION | Nearly $1 billion funded 112 seminaries to mint pastors and priests. Our findings were published at Forbes and research published in our oversight report.

    VA PURCHASE OF GUNS, 11 MILLION ROUNDS OF AMMUNITION, AND MILITARY-STYLE EQUIPMENT — $17.3 MILLION

    FY2006—FY0217 | VETERANS AFFAIRS | The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) has a mission to provide basic healthcare for veterans. In 1996, the VA didn’t have a police force. Over the last eight years, however, the VA purchased 11 million rounds of ammunition, which amounts to 2,800 rounds for each of their 3,957 officers. The VA also purchased camouflage uniforms, riot helmets and shields, specialized image enhancement devices and tactical lighting. Our findings published at Forbes.

    TWO SCULPTURES FOR VA FACILITY THAT SERVES BLIND VETERANS – $670,000

    FY2016 | DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS | In a joint investigation with COX Media Washington, D.C., OpenTheBooks published an editorial at Forbes on July 26, 2016, titled “The VA’s Luxury Art Obsession.” The editorial exposed the Department of Veterans Affairs’ array of luxury artwork, including a $670,000 sculpture for a VA facility that serves blind veterans.

    ARTS GRANTS FOR ORGANIZATIONS WITH OVER $1 BILLION IN ASSETS – $143 MILLION

    FY2009–2016 | NATIONAL FOUNDATION ON THE ARTS AND HUMANITIES | In July 2017, we published our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities, detailing numerous examples of wasteful grant making by the National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities. The report quantifies all FY2016 arts and humanities funding flowing to organization with over $1 billion in assets each (page 5). Our report launched on the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal in a column by Roger Kimball.

    ROBERT REDFORD’S SUNDANCE INSTITUTE – $4.6 MILLION

    FY2009—FY2019 | NATIONAL FOUNDATION ON THE ARTS AND HUMANITIES | In July 2017, we published our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities, detailing numerous examples of wasteful grant making by the National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities. On page 7, the report details the $200,000 in funding Robert Redford’s Sundance Institute received in FY2016. Our report launched on the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal in a column by Roger Kimball. Recently, we updated the numbers from FY2009 and found millions of dollars in grants to this well healed arts organization with roughly $50 million in gross assets.

    FEMINIST PORN BOOK AND OTHER TITLES – $55,000

    FY2016 | NATIONAL FOUNDATION ON THE ARTS AND HUMANITIES | In July 2017, we published our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities, detailing numerous examples of wasteful grant making by the National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities. On page 8, the report details the $55,000 grant the Feminist Press received in FY2016. Our report launched on the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal in a column by Roger Kimball.

    EPA PURCHASE OF GUNS, AMMO, AND MILITARY–STYLE EQUIPMENT – $3.4 MILLION

    FY2006–FY2017 | ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY | In July 2016, we published our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – The Militarization of America, quantifying all non-military federal agency purchases of guns, ammunition, and military equipment between FY2006-FY2014. On October 20, 2017, we published updated numbers (FY2006-FY2017) in an editorial at Forbes, titled “Why Are Federal Bureaucrats Buying Guns and Ammo? $158 Million Spent by Non-Military Agencies.” In both studies, we quantified all Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) purchases of guns, ammunition, and military-style equipment. Our report launched in a co-authored editorial at the Wall Street Journal with Dr. Tom Coburn titled, Why Does the IRS Need Guns?.

    “GAMES FOR CHANGE” VIDEO GAME CONVENTION – $200,000

    FY2016 | NATIONAL FOUNDATION ON THE ARTS AND HUMANITIES | In July 2017, we published our OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities, detailing numerous examples of wasteful grant making by the National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities. On page 10, the report details the $200,000 grant Games for Change, Inc. received. Our report launched on the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal in a column by Roger Kimball.

    CIGAR TASTE TEST – $114,375

    FY2016 | ROBERT SCOTT | VIRGINIA–3 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 5, the report details the $114,375 grant to Virginia Commonwealth University from the Department of Health and Human Services.

    COMEDY CLUB HOLOGRAMS – $1.7 MILLION

    FY2017 | DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE | A report by Arizona Senator Jeff Flake quantified $1.7 million given to a nonprofit called the National Comedy Center from the Department of Commerce. The grant was awarded to help the nonprofit construct a comedy museum that will “resurrect” dead comedians as holograms.

    HOW TO USE A LAWYER GUIDE – $728,000

    FY2015 | DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE | In 2015, Arizona Senator Jeff Flake published a wastebook report. On page 89, the report details the $728,000 the Department of Agriculture spent on a “How to Use a Lawyer” guide.

    LIGHTING FOR LIQUOR STORES – $50,000

    FY2017 | DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE | In 2017, Arizona Senator Jeff Flake published a wastebook report. On page 56, the report details the $50,000 the Department of Agriculture spent on liquor store lighting in Florida, Colorado, and Oklahoma.

    ADVERTISING AND PUBLIC RELATIONS (PR) CAMPAIGNS — $1.4 BILLION

    FY2020 | ALL FEDERAL AGENCIES | U.S. Senator Joni Ernst quantified $1.4 billion per year spent on PR by the federal agencies. These findings are consistent with our previous oversight report in 2015, The Department of Self-Promotion. 

    HOW ALCOHOL AFFECTS MEN’S ATTENTION AND SENSITIVITY TO SEXUAL INTEREST CUES – $180,921

    FY2016 | DAVE LOEBSACK | IOWA–2 | DEMOCRAT | Our OpenTheBooks.com Oversight Report – Where’s the Pork, released in May 2018, includes 50 examples of wasteful federal grants (FY2017). On page 7, the report details the $180,921 grant given to the University of Iowa from the Department of Health and Human Services.

    EXTRA: USDA SPENDS MILLIONS SUBSIDIZING CRICKET FARMS FOR HUMANS TO EAT BUGS

    FY2017 | DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE | According to USAspending.gov search results (May 2, 2017) Bugeater Labs received Department of Agriculture funding. The University of Nebraska Omaha College of Business Administration website published an article on April 28, 2017, titled “Bugeater Foods,” explaining the funding. 

    *  *  *

    SIGN YOUR NAME TO OPENTHEBOOKS’ PETITION, URGING THE PRESIDENT TO WAGE A WAR ON WASTE. 


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 22:25

  • Jimmy Carter Hospitalized For Brain Surgery
    Jimmy Carter Hospitalized For Brain Surgery

    Former President Jimmy Carter has been hospitalized tonight to undergo a procedure to relieve pressure on his brain caused by bleeding following his recent falls.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    According to a statement the 95-year-old’s surgery is set to take place Tuesday morning at Emory University Hospital. The spokesperson said he was “resting comfortably,” with his wife, Rosalynn by his side.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Carter, the oldest former U.S. president, has had a number of health scares in recent years.

    As CBS notes, in 2015, he announced he had been diagnosed with cancer that had spread to his liver and brain. 

    In May 2019, he suffered another health setback when he fell and broke his hip. The fall left him with a black eye and 14 stitches – but he nevertheless attended the opening ceremony for a Habitat for Humanity build in Nashville along with Rosalynn, who is 92. 

    Mr. Carter suffered two more falls in October 2019, and was hospitalized for a fractured pelvis. Less than two weeks after the fall, he said he planned to return to teaching Sunday school. 

    In the Sunday school service that followed, Mr. Carter told attendees he’s “at ease with death.” 


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 22:05

  • 'Solutions Are Obvious' – The US Higher Education System Is Broken
    ‘Solutions Are Obvious’ – The US Higher Education System Is Broken

    Authored by ‘Solutions Are Obvious’ via The Burning Platform blog,

    The US higher education system is broken. In many cases, it produces individuals with useless degrees purchased at outrageous cost. The system itself is an infestation of ultra liberal professors, spineless administrators and a student body that becomes more and more radicalized and detached from reality the more courses they take.

    The higher education system is the incubator for the anti white, anti male, anti Trump, pro freak, pro censorship, anti gun, pro socialist, anti conservative, pro unlimited immigration, pro free everything mentality that pervades what purports to be the evening news. It infantilizes young adults to produce a steady stream of victims and mental midgets completely unprepared to meet the real adult world. In short, it produces the Democrat voter.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    All is not lost, however. By and large, STEM graduates are less affected by the SJW mental aberration as their critical thinking abilities are necessarily on a higher plane to be able to cope with a curriculum that is more than just opinion. STEM fields have empirically based phenomena to comprehend and must use known tested methods of reasoning and logic to handle the problems and situations a particular field is called upon to investigate. Although STEM students are typically forced to sit through nonsense classes and regurgitate what the instructors deem critical information, they instinctively know its BS and promptly forget it once the class is over. They’re typically not permanently scared.

    The problem lies with the ‘Basket Weaving’ majors where no proof of anything is required or even possible as it’s all just opinion and supposition. The Humanities / Social Sciences / Liberal Arts courses offer an easy path towards a degree, many of which are absolutely worthless. It’s actually a shame that some of them do lead to living wage and beyond employment options that end up producing many of the fraudulent professions society is encumbered by like Economics, Psychiatry and other specializations that can’t prove anything past common sense.

    I’ll concentrate primarily on what to do to eliminate only the most egregious fraudulent degrees that are currently plaguing society.

    The concept of tenure needs to be eliminated. No one should be guaranteed a livelihood by managing to hit some arbitrary mark and thereafter have no responsibility for doing a good job as reviewed by their employer. The education profession needs to get rid of the dead wood clogging the system and consuming resources.

    All higher education facilities should be mandated to provide their graduates with job opportunities via an employment agency owned and operated by the institution, not a contracted for service. The schools should be totally responsible for finding each graduate a position in the degree field of study for 5 years post graduation.

    If the institution is unable to place a graduate, then the former student is entitled to a full refund of all tuition paid for a proven obviously useless degree plus 5 times tuition paid for the waste of time involved and to provide the former student with a funds cushion to get retrained in something with a future. In the case where a graduate is unemployable for no reason the school is responsible for or where there is a dispute over responsibility, a 3rd party would be called upon to make a judgment.

    If this were implemented, Gender Studies, Recreational Science, Hospitality Science, Museum Curator, Drama Studies and similar courses would disappear overnight from most campuses along with the faculty that teach the classes. The schools know these are for the most part BS courses and know that the chances of someone getting employed with one of the basket weaving degrees is so low that it would be financially too risky to offer the course.

    Gone would be the professors teaching these nonsense courses. Gone would be the lenders to provide the student loans, guaranteed by the Fed Gov which steals the funds from the general public. Gone would be the students mentally or some other way incapable of STEM degrees with no option but to consider vocational training or learn how to say – ‘Do you want fries with that’. Gone would be the windfall profits higher ed facilities have enjoyed in recent decades. Gone would be the unsustainable building boom for facilities completely unrelated to teaching but used as enticements to attract low IQ students easily dazzled by shiny objects. Gone would be the nonsense classes STEM students are now forced to take. Gone would be the environment were the purveyors of bullshit get to indoctrinate the latest crop of weak susceptible minds.

    Some may claim this violated free market principles. I would counter that the advancement of institutionalized fraud is not in the society’s best interests. If a student were to sign away his/her rights to compensation and effectively opt for today’s environment, then that would absolve the institution of responsibility. The free market would be restored as long as informed consent is involved.

    In addition, it should be obvious that no one should be able to get an advanced degree in a field that can’t prove it’s basic precepts. As mentioned previously, something like Economics is almost entirely BS. Economists can’t prove anything past common sense and can’t even provide a proper postmortem after an economic catastrophe. Likewise, Psychiatry has not a single empirical test for the hundreds of conditions listed in their DSM. Psychiatry is opinion masquerading as science and is simply an outlet for Big Pharma to push their mind altering poisons. The large majority of mass shooters have been on prescription only psychoactive drugs.

    Other fields that I generally refer to as the ‘story telling’ professions should likewise be reigned in. Paleontology, Anthropology, Cosmology, large portions of Geology and many more fields are largely based on a plausible story as their foundation, sans evidence. Absolute proof for their assertions is impossible and consequently it should be impossible to get a degree above Bachelors in these disciplines.

    No one should claim to be an expert (PhD) in a field that is based on opinion. In the off chance that something like Climate Science might someday actually be able to provide proof of their assertions, it, as an example, should be able to produce Bachelors graduates that can attempt to further the field but would no longer be able to fool the public into thinking they know what’s going on due to their bogus PhD pedigree.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 21:45

    Tags

  • Bay Area Home Prices Continue Slide, Peak Is likely In 
    Bay Area Home Prices Continue Slide, Peak Is likely In 

    Mainstream financial media drummed up a narrative in 1H19 about how this summer’s tech IPOs would lead to overnight millionaires across the Bay Area, and in return, would produce the next leg up in the region’s real estate market.

    The economic narrative never gained traction, partly because of the IPO market imploded. New issues like Lyft and Uber have seen shares nearly halved in the last six months, leaving many investors underwater.

    As for the IPO market pumping out overnight millionaires, well, that remains to be seen as the Bay Area real estate market continues to deteriorate, with expectations of a further plunge in 1H20.

    The Bay Area median sales price in September for an existing home, across nine-counties including Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma, plunged 4.7% YoY to $810,000, according to real estate data firm CoreLogic.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Bay Area home prices are some of the most expensive in the country and might have put in a cyclical peak in 2019.

    “I think the immediate trigger a year ago was the run-up in mortgage rates,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, a chief economist at CoreLogic.

    “Mortgage rates got posted about 5% a year ago, and that put up a chill on all potential buyers in the market place. When mortgage rates go up, that means the monthly mortgage payment is just taking that much bigger of a bite from family income.”

    San Jose-based realtor Holly Barr told NBC Bay Area that prices have been slipping for more than a year. Barr noted that price growth has stalled in the last several years, likely marking the top of the market.

    “If you look at the trend over the last two years, it’s definitely come down,” she said.

    The region has seen YoY sale price declines in the last several months as the slowdown continues to worsen. This recent period of waning demand comes after seven years of rapid price growth.

    Agents overwhelmingly said buyers have been on the sidelines waiting for the right deal. Many wanted to avoid a bidding war and needed prices to correct further before they entered offers.

    Some buyers were concerned about a late 2020 recession, trade war uncertainties, and the threat of a corporate debt bubble implosion.

    The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller San Francisco Home Price Index has likely peaked in a double top fashion.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The Federal Reserve usually embarks on an interest rate cut cycle in preparation for macroeconomic headwinds developing in the economy that eventually damages the housing market.

    As shown below, the Case-Shiller San Francisco Home Price Index tends to fall in a cut cycle.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Bay Area home prices will continue to weaken through 1H20. At what point do millennial homeowners, most of whom bought the top of the market, panic sell into a down market? 


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 21:25

  • Citing "Gun Violence", UVA Cancels 21-Gun-Salute Portion Of Veterans Day Ceremony
    Citing “Gun Violence”, UVA Cancels 21-Gun-Salute Portion Of Veterans Day Ceremony

    Authored by Jennifer Kabbany via The College Fix,

    Citing “gun violence,” the University of Virginia has canceled the 21-gun salute portion of its Veterans Day ceremony, an annual tradition that dates back at least a decade.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    In a statement posted to social media on Saturday, university President James Ryan stated the reason was two-fold:

    to minimize disruptions to classes, given that this event is located at the juncture of four primary academic buildings and is held at a time that classes are in session; and second, recognizing concerns related to firing weapons on the Grounds in light of gun violence that has happened across our nation, especially on school and university campuses.”

    According to the local ABC news affiliate WHSV, the annual ceremony “marks the conclusion of a 24-hour vigil by ROTC cadets and has included the 21-gun salute for more than a decade,” but the decision to nix the salute was made by the provost’s office in conjunction with the colonel of UVA’s ROTC program.

    Backlash has been so severe Ryan said the university will revisit the issue in 2020.

    “[C]ommunity responses have helped us to understand that many see the 21-gun salute as an important element of the Veterans Day ceremony at the University of Virginia. Given that the plans are already in place for this year, we will follow the event organizers’ recommendation to proceed without the 21-gun salute in our Veterans Day Ceremony. Following this year’s ceremony, however, we will work with our ROTC officers and cadets to take a closer look at options for our Veterans Day events, including those that would enable us to re-introduce the 21-gun salute to the program,” Ryan stated.

    According to media outlets in Virginia, the decision prompted anger. The Daily Progress, the newspaper in Charlottesville, Virginia, published several letters to the editor lambasting the decision.

    One letter argued that the decision disrespected the fact that the university’s rotunda hosts plaques honoring hundreds of alumni slain in previous wars. Another argued “veterans deserve better.”

    The decision also sent “an unfortunate message about students: That they are too fragile, too delicate, too distractible to deal with the ‘interruption’ of the salute. That they are too insular, too wrapped up in their own worlds to comprehend and accept this longstanding practice. That they must be protected from the reality that exists outside academia,” another letter writer chimed in.

    Some Twitter users responding to Ryan’s statement were a little more blunt. Among them: “How ‘we’ reached the decision? The buck stops with you. Score one for the snowflakes.”

    Tweeted another: “As a @UVA #UVA student veteran, thank you for marginalizing my community. That is a direct, unmitigated slap in the face to those of us who have served, and especially to those of us who have served and lost. I am deeply sorry that you decided to make this incorrect decision.”

    However Ryan garnered some support, too, with one replying “people forget that rampant mass shootings are commonplace now, so it makes sense not to be firing off guns near classrooms,” and another noting that “as a long-ago alumna, I want you to know how much you continue to impress. You do our university and your role proud.”


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 21:05

  • President Xi Reiterates Combat-Readiness, Says Army Needs to Be "Powerful As Tigers"
    President Xi Reiterates Combat-Readiness, Says Army Needs to Be “Powerful As Tigers”

    Chinese President Xi Jinping recognizes that the so-called trade war between the US has very little to do with trade; it has more to do with the US attempting to squash China as a rising power. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    PLA Daily reported on Monday that President Xi told a Central Military Committee (CMC) conference on the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) armed forces that it must be combat-ready and adjust to a world of rising volatility.

    “The grass-roots level of the military is experiencing new conditions and changes in its mission, construction, daily operation, unit structure, personnel composition, and social environment,” President Xi, the CMC’s chairman, said.  

    President Xi said all PLA ranks must be ready for combat, even lower-ranked units. 

    “Our commanders and soldiers should be courageous, and our troops should be powerful as tigers,” he added.

    In the last five years, President Xi has led a massive military modernization effort across the PLA. He has guaranteed the immediate deployment of new military weapons, like fifth-generation fighters, modern warships, laser weapons, railguns, stealth drones, and hypersonic missiles.

    He said the modernization effort has led to increased combat-readiness and a strengthened military. 

    President Xi had previously said China was “confronted with unpredictable international developments and a complicated and sensitive external environment” and said PLA forces are ready to answer the call to fight at any given moment.

    China’s increased combat-readiness is mostly due to the US attempting to prevent it from being a major superpower. 

    By 2025-2030, China’s economic, industrial, technological, and military achievements are likely to displace the US as a global superpower. 

    China’s defense budget, the second largest in the world, could outpace the US by 2030

    China is modernizing its military and preparing for a fight against the US. 

    Both China and the US have fallen into Thucydides Trap, one where the rising power (China), challenges the status quo power (the US), usually results in a shooting war. 


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 20:45

  • Are You Ready For A Catastrophically Cold Winter? Here's What The Mainstream Media Won't Tell You…
    Are You Ready For A Catastrophically Cold Winter? Here’s What The Mainstream Media Won’t Tell You…

    Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

    Experts are warning us that this will be a “freezing, frigid, and frosty” winter, and even though the official beginning of winter is still over a month away, it already feels like that in much of the country right now.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Over the next several days, it will literally feel like it is mid-January in much of the central and eastern portions of the United States. Many areas will be hit by temperatures that are 30 degrees below normal, and heavy snow is expected in some areas of the Midwest. Unfortunately, this bitterly cold weather is coming at a very bad time for corn farmers. According to the latest USDA crop progress report, only 52 percent of the corn in the middle of the country has been harvested. So about half of the corn is still sitting out there, and these extraordinarily low temperatures could potentially be absolutely devastating. In essence, this cold front threatens to put an exclamation point on an absolutely horrific year for U.S. farmers. According to the National Weather Service, we could possibly see “170 potential daily record cold high temperatures” over the next three days

    “The National Weather Service is forecasting 170 potential daily record cold high temperatures Monday to Wednesday,” tweeted Weather Channel meteorologist Jonathan Erdman. “A little taste of January in November.”

    The temperature nosedive will be a three-day process as a cold front charges across the central and eastern U.S. from Sunday into Tuesday.

    We are being told that low temperatures in certain portions of Texas could plunge into the teens, and all across the Upper Midwest we could see low temperatures that are well below zero.

    Of course this is not the first wave of record cold weather to come rolling through this season. During the month of October, a couple of major blizzards roared through the Midwest and countless new cold temperature records were established.

    And unfortunately we should expect a lot more bitter weather in the months ahead. Both the Farmers’ Almanac and the Old Farmer’s Almanac are projecting that this upcoming winter will be unusually cold and snowy

    Not long after the Farmers’ Almanac suggested it would be a “freezing, frigid, and frosty” season, the *other* Farmer’s Almanac has released its annual weather forecast—and it’s equally upsetting.

    While the first publication focused on the cold temperatures anticipated this winter, the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts that excessive snowfall will be the most noteworthy part of the season.

    The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which was founded in 1792, says that the upcoming winter “will be remembered for strong storms” featuring heavy rain, sleet, and a lot of snow. The periodical actually used the word “snow-verload” to describe the conditions we can expect in the coming months.

    So why is this happening?

    It is actually quite simple.

    During a solar minimum, solar activity drops to very low levels, and that tends to mean lower temperatures on Earth.

    Earlier this year, a panel of experts gathered to discuss the current solar minimum, and they came to the conclusion that it “could last for years”

    If you like solar minimum, good news: It could last for years. That was one of the predictions issued last week by an international panel of experts who gathered at NOAA’s annual Space Weather Workshop to forecast the next solar cycle. If the panel is correct, already-low sunspot counts will reach a nadir sometime between July 2019 and Sept 2020, followed by a slow recovery toward a new Solar Maximum in 2023-2026.

    “We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak maximum, preceded by a long, deep minimum,” says panel co-chair Lisa Upton, a solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp.

    But that would actually be a best case scenario.

    There are others that believe that we have now entered a “grand solar minimum” such as the one that our planet experienced several hundred years ago. That one was known as “the Maunder Minimum”, and it resulted in a “little ice age”

    The extreme example happened between 1645 and 1715 when the normal 11-year sunspot cycle vanished. This period, called the Maunder Minimum, was accompanied by bitterly cold winters in the American colonies. Fishing settlements in Iceland and Greenland were abandoned. Icebergs were seen near the English channel. The canals of Venice froze. It was a time of great hardship.

    Ultimately, the longer winters and shorter summers during the “Maunder Minimum” resulted in famine all over the globe, and multitudes ended up perishing

    The Maunder Minimum is the most famous cold period of the Little Ice Age. Temperatures plummeted in Europe (Figs. 14.3–14.7), the growing season became shorter by more than a month, the number of snowy days increased from a few to 20–30, the ground froze to several feet, alpine glaciers advanced all over the world, glaciers in the Swiss Alps encroached on farms and buried villages, tree-lines in the Alps dropped, sea ports were blocked by sea ice that surrounded Iceland and Holland for about 20 miles, wine grape harvests diminished, and cereal grain harvests failed, leading to mass famines (Fagan, 2007). The Thames River and canals and rivers of the Netherlands froze over during the winter (Fig. 14.3). The population of Iceland decreased by about half. In parts of China, warm-weather crops that had been grown for centuries were abandoned. In North America, early European settlers experienced exceptionally severe winters.

    So far in 2019, there have been more than 200 days without a single sunspot on the sun.

    We do not know when solar activity will return to normal, but for now we should all prepare for a bitterly cold winter.

    Beyond that, we had better hope that we have not entered another “Maunder Minimum”, because right now we are struggling to feed everyone on the planet even in the best of years.

    Despite all of our advanced technology, we remain deeply dependent on the weather. Even a year or two of bad harvests could potentially be absolutely catastrophic, and the mainstream media will not tell us the truth until it is way too late to do anything about it.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 20:25

  • CLO Slump Sparks Warning: "There's More Volatility Coming"
    CLO Slump Sparks Warning: “There’s More Volatility Coming”

    It’s not just The Fed’s short-term liquidity pipes that are clogged up, there appears to be some issues in the loan market, signaled by sharp declines in the $680 billion market for collateralized loan obligations (CLO), which could be an early warning sign that the junk bond market is headed for trouble. 

    As President Trump pumps fake trade news, causing the ‘Mother Of All Short Squeezes’ in equity indexes to new highs, the CLO market in October fell 5%.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Source: Bloomberg

    The rare decline in the CLO market was a result of the increasing uncertainties surrounding an economic slowdown.

    S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows the CLO market has grown by $350 billion in the last three years, now stands at $680 billion, yield chasing investors mostly fueled the increase. 

    “We think there’s more volatility coming,” said Maggie Wang, head of US CLO strategy at Citigroup, who spoke The Wall Street Journal.

    “We recommend investors reduce risk and stay with cleaner portfolios and better managers.”

    This late in the cycle, a plunge in CLO bond prices with equities in parabolic up moves indicates something is wrong. 

    The CLO tranches that are experiencing the most stress are in the double-B tranche. These risky CLO securities netted investors 10% through June. But through the end of October, most of the gains were wiped out. 

    “If you think that double-B CLOs are giving a warning sign, that says something about high yield,” said David Preston, head of CLO research at Wells Fargo & Co. “It’s hard to see how both markets can be right.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Data from Palmer Square Capital Management shows Double-B CLO bond yields are about five percentage points higher than the yield of comparably rated junk bonds. 

    “The yield differential hasn’t been this wide since early 2016, when dropping oil prices sparked a selloff in both leveraged loans and high-yield bonds,” The Journal noted. 

    Between the chaos in the repo markets, now tamped down by the promise of endless liquidity from NYFRB, and the ongoing scare in the critical-for-junk-demand CLO market, some fear the end of the year could bring a notably negative surprise. 

    None other than Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar (the main in charge of market intelligence for securitized credit markets for The Fed in 2008) has a warning…

    “There is a very real chance that, if we don’t have a better set of pipes from the Fed and a more aggressive QE, then you have a very, very problematic year-end turn.”

    But for now, record-high stocks and trade-deal optimism are all that matters, right?


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 20:05

  • Rediscovering America: A Quiz For Veterans Day
    Rediscovering America: A Quiz For Veterans Day

    Authored by David Tucker via InsideSources.com,

    Today is Veterans Day, which has been observed under its current name since 1954 and honors all American veterans.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The quiz below, from the Ashbrook Center at Ashland University, Ashland, Ohio, provides an opportunity for you to test your knowledge of this national holiday, its origins, and the role of veterans in our national life.

    1. Before 1954, the American holiday honoring veterans was called what?

    A: Flag Day

    B: Armed Forces Day

    C: Armistice Day

    D: Memorial Day

    2. November 11 was chosen for what reason?

    A: Fighting during World War I officially ceased

    B: Treaty of Versailles was signed

    C: Uniform Holiday Bill designated the date

    D: Official ceremony unveiling the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier took place

    3. According to U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs estimates, there were how many living veterans in the United States as of September 30, 2018?

    A: 8.3 million

    B: 11.1 million

    C: 14.3 million

    D: 19.6 million

    4. Approximately how many of these veterans served during World War II?

    A: 350,000

    B: 500,000

    C: 1 million

    D: 3.5 million

    5. As early as 1789, the federal government began providing what benefit to veterans?

    A: Health care

    B: Pensions

    C:  Education

    D: Burials in national cemeteries

    6. Which president signed legislation making the Veterans Administration the Department of Veterans Affairs, giving it official Cabinet status?

    A: Herbert Hoover

    B: Franklin D. Roosevelt

    C: Dwight D. Eisenhower

    D: Ronald Reagan

    7. All of the following countries honor veterans on November 11 except this country?

    A: Italy

    B: France

    C: Canada

    D: Belgium

    8. According to the most recent data available, approximately what percentage of veterans are women?

    A: 3 percent

    B: 6 percent

    C: 9 percent

    D: 14 percent

    9. Which president said the following of Veterans Day: “On that day let us solemnly remember the sacrifices of all those who fought so valiantly, on the seas, in the air, and on foreign shores, to preserve our heritage of freedom, and let us reconsecrate ourselves to the task of promoting and enduring peace so that their efforts shall not have been in vain.”

    A: Dwight D. Eisenhower

    B: Lyndon Johnson

    C: George H.W. Bush

    D: George W. Bush

    10. Which of the following celebrities is not a veteran?

    A: Ice-T

    B: Robert Redford

    C: Chuck Norris

    D: Gary Sinise

    *  *  *

    ANSWERS

    1-C; 2-A; 3-D; 4-B; 5-B; 6-D; 7-A; 8-C; 9-A; 10-B.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 19:45

  • Syria (Summed Up In One Iconic Photo)
    Syria (Summed Up In One Iconic Photo)

    As Ömer Özkizilcik writes alongside this somewhat iconic photo, “Russian and American troops crossing each other’s route in northeast Syria.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    We wonder what messages were exchanged as the two entities crossed each other…

    All yours (except for the oil)…”

     

    “…tag, you’re it!


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 19:25

  • How To Spend $45,000 On A $27,000 Car
    How To Spend $45,000 On A $27,000 Car

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

    As cars become more expensive, and trade-ins worth less and less, buyers go deeper in debt on new cars.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Please consider taking a $45,000 Loan for a $27,000 Ride.

    Consumers, salespeople and lenders are treating cars a lot like houses during the last financial crisis: by piling on debt to such a degree that it often exceeds the car’s value. This phenomenon—referred to as negative equity, or being underwater—can leave car owners trapped.

    Some 33% of people who traded in cars to buy new ones in the first nine months of 2019 had negative equity, compared with 28% five years ago and 19% a decade ago, according to car-shopping site Edmunds.

    Easy lending standards are perpetuating the cycle, with lenders routinely making car loans with low or no down payments that can last seven years or longer.

    Borrowers are responsible for paying their remaining debt even after they get rid of the vehicle tied to it. When subsequently buying another car, they can roll this old debt into a new loan. The lender that originates the new loan typically pays off the old lender, and the consumer then owes the balance from both cars to the new lender. The transactions are often encouraged by dealerships, which now make more money on arranging financing than on selling cars.

    “These aren’t Rolls-Royces,” said David Goldsmith, a lawyer who defends consumers in auto cases. “They’re Ford Escapes.”

    Some 5.2% of outstanding securitized subprime auto-loan balances were at least 60 days past due on a rolling 12-month average during the period ending in June, up from 4.8% the year before and 4.9% two years before, according to Fitch Ratings.

    Examples to Consider

    The Journal cited the case of Mr. John Schricker who kept rolling over loans to the point that it took a $45,000 loan from Ally Financial Inc. to buy a $27,000 Jeep Cherokee.

    Also consider the case of Yolanda Finley. She bought a bought a used 2011 Chevy Traverse with a loan of $25,585 from Santander Consumer USA Holdings Inc. in 2014. Finley could not afford the payment. Her car was repossessed. She now owes $27,000 on a car she does not even have.

    Nicole-Malia Tennent and Shyanne Fernandez, both in their early 20s, wanted to trade in the car they shared for something less expensive last year. Instead they splurged on a new 2018 GMC Sierra truck, moving the unpaid loan balance of $12,500 into a new loan. The new loan balance is over $66,000. The old loan payment was $500. The new loan payment (I presume for longer), is $900.

    What the hell do two friends need a $66,000 truck for? How will they allot the time between them?

    This is how crazy it’s gotten.

    Three personal anecdotes don’t constitute data but other evidence suggests the problem is widespread.

    Car Dealers Make More Profit On Loans Than Selling Cars

    A third of auto loans in 2019 had a term period over six years. People cannot afford the cars they are buying.

    For discussion, please see Car Dealers Make More Profit On Loans Than Selling Cars

    Families Go Deep in Debt to Stay Middle Class

    On September 9, I noted Families Go Deep in Debt to Stay Middle Class: Revolving Credit Jumps 11.2%

    These are all signs of a “Late Stage Credit Bubble

    Ability to buy things one cannot really afford does not make or keep someone in the “middle class“.

    Wages are not keeping up with needs and desires.

    Collectively, these reports show a late stage credit bubble the Fed desperately wants to keep inflating.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 19:05

  • Trump To Release "Tantalizing" Transcript Of First Ukraine Call This Week
    Trump To Release “Tantalizing” Transcript Of First Ukraine Call This Week

    As the long-awaited ‘public’ impeachment hearings loom – seemingly to discuss the opinions of various leftists about the actual words that Trump and Ukraine’s president Zelensky spoke according to the actual transcript – it appears President Trump has another ace up his sleeve.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    As he hinted at on Friday, the president just confirmed by tweet that he will release the transcript of the “most important” first call with the President of Ukraine this week

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Trump spoke with Zelensky for the first time shortly after he was elected president of Ukraine in April. The call preceded the July 25 phone conversation that has become the center of the Democrats’ impeachment farce.

    The release of this first transcript is likely to distract from the testimonies of various ‘insiders’ this week.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    President Trump was not done, however, as he took aim once again at Rep. Schiff…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Grab your popcorn, it’s going to be a fun week.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 18:49

    Tags

  • Baltimore Murder Crisis Could Hit Record, About To Record 300 Homicides For Fifth Straight Year
    Baltimore Murder Crisis Could Hit Record, About To Record 300 Homicides For Fifth Straight Year

    Update (Nov. 11): The murder crisis in Baltimore City could set a record this year.

    The current homicide count is 296 as of Sunday afternoon, following a fatal shooting Saturday morning. 

    In the next week, the murder count could breach 300 for the fifth year in a row.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    With 57 days left in the year, the city could record the most murders ever, would need to break 344 homicides, a record that was set in 2015. 

    Councilman Leon Pickett, who represents Baltimore’s seventh district, told CBS 13 Baltimore that the murder crisis is “unacceptable.” 

    “Let’s be clear that one murder in our city is too much,” Pickett said. “The fact that we’re yet again approaching almost 300 murders is unacceptable. Everybody needs to rise up and express the outrage that should be with city approaching that.”

    This time last year, the city saw about the same number of homicides (around 300). 

    “We’ve got to change the culture in our city where people are resolving issues with violent means,” Pickett said.

    Baltimore has the second-worst homicide rate in the country, right behind St. Louis. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    For the past several years, homicides across major US metropolitan areas have declined, except for Baltimore City.

    The media has widely criticized President Trump for tweeting about the social-economic chaos in the Baltimore metro area.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And the tragedy of Baltimore is widely due to five decades of deindustrialization, coupled with severe wealth inequality in the inner cities. 

    The opioid epidemic, sparked by local hospitals handing out Oxycontin like candy for two decades, has undoubtedly weighed on the local population. 

    Also, five decades of Democrats running the city have certainly accelerated Baltimore’s demise.

    Baltimore City will continue to descend into chaos into the early 2020s. 

    * * * 

    So here we go again, another depressing story from Baltimore City, a region that is imploding on itself and suffering from a murders crisis, opioid epidemic, a wide gap in wealth/health/education inequalities, and deindustrialization. 

    In this report, we’re only going to focus on the murder crisis and gently touch on the opioid epidemic (because they go hand in hand), however, please search our archives for other stories on Baltimore, because the implosion there is what will be coming to many other inner cities across the country in the 2020s. 

    With that being said, Baltimore City could be on track to surpass last year’s 309 homicides, and if current trends persist, there is a chance that homicides could hit a record high, which means the city could see 342, a level that was previously set in 2015 and 2017. 

    “Baltimore is on course to reach more than 300 homicides for the fifth year in a row, with 232 killings through Wednesday compared to 199 at the same time last year,” The Baltimore Sun said.

    To combat the murder crisis, the federal government and Baltimore City Police unveiled a permanent “strike force” comprised of detectives, prosecutors, and federal agents will begin operations to target Baltimore drug gangs and their Mexican suppliers, who have been flooding the city with heroin and fentanyl.

    No details were provided if the strike force will target hospitals and pharmaceutical companies who continue pumping legal opioids onto the streets. Legal opioids kicked off the opioid crisis across the city several decades ago, not Baltimore gangs and their Latin American suppliers.

    As shown in the chart below, cumulative homicide trends are likely to record the 5th consecutive year of murders over 300. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The next chart shows most of the homicides this year have been caused by a gun. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Geographically speaking, the killings aren’t situated in just one part of the town but are more widespread.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Last week, we reported how one neighborhood in the city transformed into a warzone. We said: “There was so much gunfire at one point that not even a single rat was spotted on the streets of East Baltimore City.” 

    🚨Officer Down🚨 Officer struck by gunfire in Baltimore during pursuit as innocent civilians jump for cover during the shooting. If you see Officers pointing their weapons at a suspect, please get out of the line of fire. Find a safe place if you really need to record. pic.twitter.com/OKD6aAWZsq

    — Sgt.Helper (@1Cycle20) August 29, 2019

    On a per-capita basis, Baltimore’s homicide rate is the highest in the country and is on par with a war zone.

    We said this last week, and we’ll repeat it: “There’s no meaningful policy in place to turn Baltimore around in the next decade. So in the meantime, if you value your life, stay away from Baltimore.” 


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 18:45

  • Economists Are Still Hooked On The Myth That Saving Is Bad For The Economy
    Economists Are Still Hooked On The Myth That Saving Is Bad For The Economy

    Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

    According to new data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal saving rate in the US in September 2019 was 8.3 percent. That puts it near a six-year high, and comparable to the saving rate we saw during the early 1990s.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Indeed, the personal saving rate has been heading upward steadily for the past eighteen months. And that’s a bit of an unusual thing. For at least the past fifty years, the saving rate has tended to increase when the economy is doing poorly, and decrease when the economy is doing well.

    We saw this in the late seventies and early eighties during the age of stagflation and the 1982 recession. We certainly saw it in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, when the saving rate quickly rose from a near-low of 3.8 percent in August 2008, more than doubling to 8.2 percent during may of 2009.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    But if the BEA’s numbers are correct, that pattern appears to be over, and Americans appear to be more willing to save even when job growth continues to head upward.

    This change could be a result of several factors. It could be Americans are less confident about their prospects for future earnings, even if the current job situation appears bright. Many could be less confident that the assets they do have will provide a cushion in case of crisis. For example, many Americans may have learned their lesson about the myth that “housing prices always go up.”

    The fact that these numbers are averages makes it especially hard to guess. After all, surveys suggests a very large numbers of Americans are saving very little.

    For example, CNBC reported in January that “Just 40 percent of Americans are able to cover an unexpected $1,000 expense, such as an emergency room visit or car repair, with their savings…”

    A separate survey “found that 58 percent of respondents had less than $1,000 saved.

    Regardless of who is doing it, however, increased saving can be a good thing for the economy overall. For instance, even if only the rich are the ones saving more, their saving increases the amount of loanable funds, decreasing the interest rate, and making lenders more likely to lend to riskier borrowers. That’s good for farmers and small business owners.

    Moreover, as the wealthy refrain from spending, they increase the value of cash held and spent by people at all income levels. For example, if the rich are spending less on restaurant meals and pickup trucks, this means the prices for those items are not being bid up as much. When the rich save, that means fewer dollars chasing goods and services, which can lead to more stable, or even falling prices. That can be good for many people at lower income levels.

    Nonetheless, many mainstream economists continue to get hung up on the idea that saving “too much” hampers economic growth. For example, in a recent article at the Wall Street Journal titled “Americans Are Saving More, and That Isn’t Necessarily Good” Paul Kiernan writes:

    if saving outstrips investment opportunities for a long time, some economists say, it can hold down interest rates, inflation and economic growth. Such “secular stagnation” may leave less room to cut interest rates, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to boost growth during downturns.

    “Rather than being a virtue, saving becomes a vice,” said Gauti Eggertsson, an economist at Brown University.

    This is an old story we’ve been hearing for years, and the idea that there is too much saving certainly received its share of promotion during the 2001-2002 recession, and during the 2007-2009 recession.

    Economists do recognize that more saving helps increase loanable funds — and thus puts downward pressure on interests rates — and reduces inflation. But more saving does not, as they think, reduce real economic growth.

    True, it might reduce economic growth as measured by government stats which mostly just add up money transactions . But properly understood, economic growth increases with saving, because the capital stock is increasing, making it easier for entrepreneurs to deliver new goods and services — and more goods and services — to consumers. As Frank Shostak explains, we need more saving to create more and better goods:

    What limits the production growth of goods and services is the introduction of better tools and machinery (i.e., capital goods), which raises worker productivity. Tools and machinery are not readily available; they must be made. In order to make them, people must allocate consumer goods and services that will sustain those individuals engaged in the production of tools and machinery.

    This allocation of consumer goods and services is what savings is all about. Note that savings become possible once some individuals have agreed to transfer some of their present goods to individuals that are engaged in the production of tools and machinery. Obviously, they do not transfer these goods for free, but in return for a greater quantity of goods in the future. According to Mises, “Production of goods ready for consumption requires the use of capital goods, that is, of tools and of half-finished material. Capital comes into existence by saving, i.e., temporary abstention from consumption.”

    The common view among many economists today, however, is that it’s better for economic growth to make sure more people spend every last dime on trinkets at the discount store. Those who have been around long enough to remember previous business cycles will remember that this idea manifests itself during times of recession as pundits insist it’s our patriotic duty to spend more, in order to create economic growth.

    In truth, in a time like today, the best thing people can do is save more. We live in a time of multiple economic bubbles and non-productive sectors of the economy fueled by inflationary monetary policy. When recession finally does come, vast amounts of debt will never get paid back and immense numbers of “assets” held on balance sheets will evaporate. The result will be a lot of lost jobs and a lot of failed businesses. The only real cushion will be real savings which will be badly needed in a time of recession.


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 18:25

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 11th November 2019

  • "Too Many To Count": The Global Persecution Of Christians
    “Too Many To Count”: The Global Persecution Of Christians

    Authored by Raymond Ibrahim via The Gatestone Institute,

    Today is one of the International Days of Prayer for the Persecuted Church (IDOP). Initiated over 20 years ago by the World Evangelical Alliance, 100,000 congregations around the world and millions of Christians participate on this day.

    “This November let us unite in prayer for our persecuted brothers and sisters,” IDOP noted in a brief video that highlights a few examples of recent persecution, including the Easter Sunday church bombings in Sri Lanka and the ongoing slaughter of Christians by Islamic groups in Nigeria and, increasingly, Burkina Faso.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Discussing this day’s significance, Vernon Brewer, the CEO and founder of World Help, a Christian humanitarian organization, wrote:

    It’s easy to go about our lives and forget that in places like Nigeria, Iran and North Korea being a Christian can often lead to death. After all, for the most part, persecution for our faith isn’t something most of us face… But I can’t forget the believers I’ve met in Iraq, China or at the North Korean border. I can’t forget their scars or their haunted eyes and horrific stories… The more I travel, the more I see that in many countries Christian persecution is worse than ever before.”

    Statistics bear out this grim assertion: “4,136 Christians were killed for faith-related reasons,” noted Open Doors in its World Watch List 2019. “On average, that’s 11 Christians killed every day for their faith.” Additionally, “2,625 Christians were detained without trial, arrested, sentenced and imprisoned” and “1,266 churches or Christian buildings were attacked.”

    The report further states that more than 245 million Christians around the world are currently suffering from persecution. In other words, “1 in 9 Christians experience high levels of persecution worldwide.”

    Typically women fare worse: “In many places, they experience a ‘double persecution’— one for being a Christian and one for being a woman.” As for specific numbers: “At least six women every day are raped, sexually harassed or forced into marriage to a Muslim man under the threat of death for their Christian faith…”

    The “Independent Review into the global persecution of Christians,” led by Rev. Philip Mounstephen, the Bishop of Truro, and published in early 2019, states:

    “Evidence shows not only the geographic spread of anti-Christian persecution, but also its increasing severity. In some regions, the level and nature of persecution is arguably coming close to meeting the international definition of genocide, according to that adopted by the UN.”

    The bishop’s detailed report, which was commissioned by then British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, concluded that the persecution of Christians is near “genocide” levels.

    Both studies make clear that most of the persecution occurs in the Muslim world. In seven of the top ten worst nations, “the primary cause of persecution is Islamic oppression,” notes Open Doors. Additionally, 38 of the 50 nations that persecute Christians the most are Muslim-majority.

    The Bishop of Truro’s report gives specifics:

    • “The persecution of Christians is perhaps at its most virulent in the region of the birthplace of Christianity — the Middle East & North Africa.”

    • “Christianity now faces the possibility of being wiped-out in parts of the Middle East where its roots go back furthest. In Palestine, Christian numbers are below 1.5 percent; in Syria the Christian population has declined from 1.7 million in 2011 to below 450,000 and in Iraq, Christian numbers have slumped from 1.5 million before 2003 to below 120,000 today.”

    • “In countries such as Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia the situation of Christians and other minorities has reached an alarming stage.”

    • “[T]here is mass violence which regularly expresses itself through the bombing of churches, as has been the case in countries such as Egypt, Pakistan, and Indonesia.”

    • “The single-greatest threat to Christians [in Nigeria] … came from Islamist militant group Boko Haram, with US intelligence reports in 2015 suggesting that 200,000 Christians were at risk of being killed… Those worst affected included Christian women and girls ‘abducted, and forced to convert, enter forced marriages, sexual abuse and torture.'”

    • “An intent to erase all evidence of the Christian presence [in Syria, Iraq, Egypt, north-east Nigeria and the Philippines] was made plain by the removal of crosses, the destruction of Church buildings and other Church symbols. The killing and abduction of clergy represented a direct attack on the Church’s structure and leadership.”

    Outside the Muslim world, the persecution of Christians is also getting significantly worse, particularly North Korea, where “never-ending pressure and violence” is directed against Christians. In India, for the first time in modern history, Christians are experiencing “extreme persecution.”

    In the end, numbers and statistics will never adequately capture the magnitude of the problem. “Too many to count, too many unknown,” states the video by International Day of Prayer for the Persecuted Church, “All because they bear the name of Jesus.”


    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 11/11/2019 – 02:00

  • How The Deep State "Justifies" Itself In America
    How The Deep State “Justifies” Itself In America

    Authored by Eric Zuesse via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    On October 30th, there was a panel discussion broadcast live on C-Span from the National Press Club and the Michael V. Hayden Center. The discussants were John Brennan, Michael McCabe, John McGlaughlin, and Michael Morrell. They all agreed with the statement by McLaughlin (former Deputy CIA Director) “Thank God for the ‘Deep State’”, and the large audience there also applauded it — nobody booed it.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    John Brennan amplified upon the thought, and there was yet more applause. However, that thought hadn’t been invented by McLaughlin; it instead had evolved recently in the pages of the New York Times. Perhaps the discussants had read it there. Instead of America’s ‘news’-media uncritically trumpeting what government officials assert to be facts (as they traditionally do), we now have former spooks uncritically trumpeting what a mainstream ‘news’-medium has recently concocted to be the case — about themselves. They’ve come out of the closet, about being the Deep State. However, even in that, they are lying, because they aren’t it; they are only agents for it.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    In America, the Deep State ‘justifies’ itself in the ‘news’-media that it owns, and does so by falsely ‘defining’ what the “Deep State” is (which is actually the nation’s 607 billionaires, whose hired agents number in the millions). They mis-‘define’ it, as being, instead, the taxpayer-salaried career Government employees, known professionally as “the Civil Service.” (Although some Civil Servants — especially at the upper levels — are agents for America’s billionaires and retire to cushy board seats, most of them actually are not and do not. And the “revolving door” between “the public sector” and “the private sector” is where the Deep State operations become concentrated. That’s the core of the networking, by which the billionaires get served. And, of course, those former spooks at the National Press Club said nothing about it. Are they authentically so stupid that they don’t know about it, or is that just pretense from them?)

    How the Deep State’s operatives perpetrate this deception about the meaning of “Deep State” was well exemplified in the nine links that were supplied on October 28th by the extraordinarily honest anonymous German intelligence analyst who blogs as “Moon of Alabama” and who condemned there (and linked to) 9 recent articles in the New York Times, as posing a threat against democracy in America.

    As I intend to argue here, the 9 articles are, indeed, aimed at deceiving the American public, about what the true meaning of the phrase “the Deep State” is. He headlined “Endorsing The Deep State Endangers Democracy”. (And that’s what the October 30th panel discussion was actually doing — endorsing the Deep State.)

    However, he didn’t explain the tactic the NYT’s editors (and those former spooks) use to deceive the public about the Deep State, and this is what I aim to do here, by showing the transformation, over time, in the way that that propaganda-organization, the New York Times, has been employing the phrase “Deep State” — a remarkable transformation, which started, on 16 February 2017, by the newspaper’s denying that any Deep State exists in America but that it exists only in corrupt nations; and which gradually transitioned into an upside-down, by asserting that a Deep State does exist in the United States, and that it fights against corruption in this country. As always, only fools (such as that applauding audience on October 30th) would believe it, but propagandists depend upon fools and cannot thrive without them. In this case, the Times, in those 9 articles, was evolving quickly from a blanket denial, to an American-exceptionalist proud affirmation, that a Deep State rules this country and ought to rule it. I agree with the statement that “Endorsing The Deep State Endangers Democracy”, but I am more concerned here to explain how that endorsement — that deceit — is being done.

    The first of these NYT articles was published on 16 February 2017, and it denied that the US has any “Deep State” whatsoever.

    The second, published on 6 March 2017, blamed President Trump (since the NYT represents mainly Democratic Party billionaires) for mainstreaming the phrase “the Deep State” into American political discourse, and it alleged that that phrase actually refers only to “countries like Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan, where authoritarian elements band together to undercut democratically elected leaders.”

    The third, published on 10 March 2017, repeated this allegation, that this phrase applies only to “the powerful deep states of countries like Egypt or Pakistan, experts say.”

    The fourth, published on 5 September 2018, was an anonymous op-ed from a Government employee who condemned Trump and “vowed to thwart parts of his agenda and his worst inclinations.” “This isn’t the work of the so-called deep state. It’s the work of the steady state.” So: still the NYT’s editors were hewing to their propaganda-line, that no “Deep State” exists in America — there are just whistleblowers, here.

    The fifth, on 18 December 2018, said, for example, that “Adam Lovinger, a Pentagon analyst, was one of the first to wrap himself in the deep state defense” — namely, that they consist of “people who have been targeted for political reasons.” So, the NYT’s editors were now reinforcing their new false ‘definition’ of “Deep State,” as consisting just of Government whistleblowers.

    The sixth, on 6 October 2019, said, “President Trump and some of his allies have asserted without evidence that a cabal of American officials — the so-called deep state — embarked on a broad operation to thwart Mr. Trump’s campaign. The conspiracy theory remains unsubstantiated.” So: the NYT’s editors were back, again, to denying that there is any “Deep State” in America. This was a signal, from them, that they were starting to recognize that they’d need to jiggle their ‘definition’ of “Deep State,” at least a bit.

    The seventh, on 20 October 2019, was by a member of the Editorial Board, and it boldly proclaimed, about “the deep state,” “Let us now praise these not-silent heroes.” The propagandists now had settled firmly upon their new (and previously merely exploratory) ‘definition’ of “Deep State,” as consisting of whistleblowers in the US Government’s Civil Services, “individuals willing to step up and protest the administration’s war on science, expertise and facts.”

    The eighth, on 23 October 2019, equated “the deep state” even more boldly with the impeachment of President Trump: “Over the last three weeks, the deep state has emerged from the shadows in the form of real live government officials, past and present, who have defied a White House attempt to block cooperation with House impeachment investigators and provided evidence that largely backs up the still-anonymous whistle-blower.”

    The ninth, on 26 October 2019, which came from “a contributing opinion writer and professor of history,” alleged that the origins of “the deep state” are to be found with Teddy Roosevelt in the 1880s, when “A healthy dose of elitism drove Roosevelt’s crusade, as the spoils system had been the path to power for immigrant-driven political machines in big cities like New York. Yet the Civil Service laws he and others created marked the beginning of a shift toward a fairer, less corrupt public realm.”

    In other words: the Deep State, in America, are not perpetrators of corrupt government (such as in “countries like Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan, where authoritarian elements band together to undercut democratically elected leaders”), but are instead courageous enemies of corrupt government; and they are instituted by the aristocracy here (today’s American billionaires), in order to reduce, if not eliminate, corruption in government (which, the Times now alleges, originates amongst, or serves, the lower classes).

    The lessons about Big Brother, which were taught by George Orwell in his merely metaphorical masterpiece 1984, were apparently never learned, because even now — as his “Newspeak” is being further refined so that black is white, and good is bad, and truth is falsehood — there still are people who subscribe to the propagandists and cannot get enough of their ridiculous con-games. Though in some poor countries, a corrupt Deep State rules; a Deep State rules in America so as to reduce if not prevent corruption, the New York Times now concludes.

    You can see how it’s done, in those nine NYT articles. Isn’t it simply amazing there?!


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 23:30

    Tags

  • Chaos In Bolivia After President Morales Resigns, Claims He Was Victim Of A Coup
    Chaos In Bolivia After President Morales Resigns, Claims He Was Victim Of A Coup

    Shortly after the country’s military “urged” him to do so, Bolivian President Evo Morales resigned on Sunday to ease violence that has gripped the South American nation since a disputed election last month, but he stoked fears of further unrest in a country that has been paralyzed by weeks of protests after saying he was the victim of a “coup” and faced arrest.

    Morales, who has been in power for nearly 14 years, said in televised comments that he would submit his resignation letter to help restore stability, though he aimed barbs at what he called a “civic coup” and later said police planned to arrest him.

    “I resign from my position as president so that (Carlos) Mesa and (Luis Fernando) Camacho do not continue to persecute socialist leaders,” Morales said in the televised address naming the leaders of the opposition.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Morales said that he decided to leave the post in hopes that his departure would stop the spate of violent attacks against officials and indigenous people, “so that protesters do not continue burning the houses of public officials” and  “kidnapping and mistreating” families of indigenous leaders.

    “I am resigning, sending my letter of resignation to the Legislative Assembly,” Morales said, adding that it was his “obligation as indigenous president and president of all Bolivians to seek peace.”

    Morales has received a reputation as a staunch defender of socialism and an ardent critic of US foreign policy. The country’s highest court ruled in 2018 that he could run for the fourth time.

    Underscoring the ongoing tensions, Morales later said on Twitter that the police had an “illegal” warrant for his arrest and that “violent groups” had attacked his home, according to Reuters, although the local police chief later refuted there was a warrant for Morales’ arrest.

    Shortly before Morales announced his resignation, Bolivian TV channels aired footage of what they say was a presidential plane departing from  El Alto International airport. It was reported that the plane took Morales to his political stronghold of Chimoré in the Department of Cochabamba, 300 kilometers east of La Paz, a city where he launched his reelection bid back in May.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The resignation of Morales, a leftist icon and the last survivor of Latin America’s “pink tide” of two decades ago, has already sent shockwaves across the region at a time when left-leaning leaders have returned to power in Mexico and Argentina.

    Completing a trifecta of resignations, Vice President Álvaro García Linera also resigned, as did Bolivia senate’s president, Adriana Salvatierra.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Echoing Morales, some of his leftist Latin American allies decried the turn of events as a “coup,” including Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Brazil’s Lula (who last week was released from prison) and Argentine President-elect Alberto Fernandez. Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said his country would offer Morales asylum if he sought it.

    While Bolivia under Morales enjoyed a period of welcome prosperity, including one of the region’s strongest economic growth rates and its poverty rate was cut in half, his determination to cling to power and seek a fourth term alienated many allies, even among indigenous communities.

    * * *

    Pressure had been ramping up on Morales since he was declared the winner of the Oct. 20 election. Ahead of today’s announcement, General Williams Kaliman, the head of Bolivia’s armed forces, on Sunday said the military had asked Morales to step down to help restore peace and stability after weeks of protests over the vote. Kaliman added that the military was calling on the Bolivian people to refrain from violence and disorder.

    Videos from La Paz, the site of many recent anti-Morales protests, showed crowds cheering after the resignation announcement.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    After the contested October elections there were rival rallies of Morales’ opponents and supporters throughout the country. While many anti-government protests remained peaceful, others have led to rioting in major cities, clashes with police, and attacks on pro-government politicians. On Saturday, protesters burned the house of Oruro city governor  Víctor Hugo Vásquez, who stood by the president as tensions flared up.

    Earlier on Sunday, Morales had agreed to hold new elections after a report from the Organization of American States (OAS), which conducted an audit of the Oct. 20 vote, revealed serious irregularities. The OAS report said that election should be annulled after it had found “clear manipulations” of the voting system that called into question Morales’ win, with a lead of just over 10 points over main rival Carlos Mesa.

    Bolivian opposition urged Morales to resign altogether despite his promise of the new elections. While he briefly resisted such calls, branding them “unconstitutional” and an “attempted coup,” the President eventually gave in after the military joined that chorus.

    Adding to the chaos resulting from weeks of protests, the resignations of Morales and his vice president meant it was not initially clear who would take the helm of the country pending the results of new elections.

    According to Bolivian law, in the absence of the president and vice president, the head of the Senate would normally take over provisionally. However, as noted above, Senate President Adriana Salvatierra also stepped down late on Sunday, leaving an unprecedented power vacuum (which we are confident will be filled quick). Legislators were expected to meet to agree on an interim commission or legislator who would have temporary administrative control of the country, according to a constitutional lawyer who spoke to Reuters.

    Morales, speaking at an earlier news conference, had tried to placate critics with a pledge to replace the electoral tribunal for the new vote, though his opponents – already angry that he ran in defiance of term limits – were not assuaged.

    The election standoff has dented the image of Morales – who has helmed Bolivia through a period of relative stability and economic growth – and hit the landlocked nation’s economy. His “legacy will be compromised and the region will suffer another impact with consequences well beyond Bolivia,” said Juan Cruz Diaz, managing director of risk advisory Cefeidas Group, referring to Argentina, Chile, Peru, Paraguay and Brazil.

    Luis Fernando Camacho, a civic leader from the eastern city of Santa Cruz who has become a symbol of the opposition, said the OAS report on Sunday clearly demonstrated election fraud. He had reiterated his call for Morales to resign.

    “Today we won a battle,” Camacho told a crowd of cheering supporters in the capital before Morales’ resignation, though he added more time was needed to repair the constitutional order and democracy. “Only when we can be sure that democracy is solid, then will we go back home.”

    U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had also welcomed the call for a new vote to “ensure free and fair elections.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    As the fall-out from the audit report swept across Bolivia, and as the military pulled its backing, Morales’ support crumbled on Sunday.   Several of his allies resigned, including Mining Minister Cesar Navarro and Chamber of Deputies President Victor Borda, who belongs to Morales’ party. They both cited fear for the safety of their families as the reason for stepping down. Juan Carlos Huarachi, leader of the Bolivian Workers’ Center, a powerful pro-government union, said Morales should stand down if that would help end recent violence.

    But the straw that broke the camel’s back is when the police forces also joined anti-government protests, while the military said it would not “confront the people” over the issue. The attorney general’s office also announced it had ordered an investigation with the aim of prosecuting the members of the electoral body and others responsible for the irregularities.

    Mesa had also said Morales and his vice president should not preside over the electoral process or be candidates.

    Morales, who came to power in 2006 as Bolivia’s first indigenous leader, had defended his election win but said he would adhere to the findings of the OAS audit. “The manipulations to the computer systems are of such magnitude that they must be deeply investigated by the Bolivian State to get to the bottom of and assign responsibility in this serious case,” the preliminary OAS report had said.

    So just as some blame Russia when elections don’t go their way, others finds a culprit in computer system manipulations.

    Voting in a new election should take place as soon as conditions are in place to guarantee it being able to go ahead, including a newly composed electoral body, the OAS said. The OAS added that it was statistically unlikely that Morales had secured the 10-percentage-point margin of victory needed to win outright.

    Morales stressed that his resignation does not mean that the socialist case is defeated.

    “It is no betrayal. The struggle continues. We are a people,” he said.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 23:19

    Tags

  • Where U.S. Troops Are Based In The Middle East
    Where U.S. Troops Are Based In The Middle East

    After the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria caused turmoil in the region, Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes that some units formerly stationed in Syria have moved to stay in Iraq.

    The country had formerly been the base of more than 5,000 U.S. troops, as our graphic shows.

    Infographic: Where U.S. Troops Are Based In The Middle East | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Other Middle Eastern countries host many more U.S. troops.

    The largest U.S. base in the Middle East is in Qatar. The country hosts around 13,000 U.S. troops, according to numbers compiled by Axios. Located southwest of Doha, Al Udeid Air Base has proven crucial in the fight against ISIS. Qatar invested $1 billion in constructing the base and it’s also home to the the U.S. Combined Air Operations Center, responsible for coordinating U.S. and allied air power across the Middle East, particularly in airspace over Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.

    The above infographic also highlights just how important Qatar, along with Kuwait, is to the U.S. presence in the Middle East.

    Both countries hosts an estimated 13,000 U.S. troops.

    Neighboring Bahrain is also vital to American interests in the region, home to the Naval Support Activity Bahrain, the U.S. Fifth Fleet and a substantial military presence at Isa Air Base. 7,000 troops are based there.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 23:00

  • Who Wants To Destroy The World?
    Who Wants To Destroy The World?

    Authored by Phil Torres via OneZero,

    For most of human history, the question of who would want to destroy the world didn’t much matter. The reason, of course, was that that no individual or group of humans could demolish civilization or cause our extinction. Our ancestors just didn’t have the tools: no amount of spears, arrows, swords, or catapults would have enabled them — even the most bloodthirsty and misanthropic — to have inflicted harm in every corner of the world.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    This changed with the invention of the atomic bomb. While scholars often identify 1945 as the year that human self-annihilation became possible, a more accurate date is 1948 or 1949, since this is when the United States stockpiled enough nuclear weapons (about 100) to have initiated a hemisphere-spanning “nuclear winter.” (See this work in progress for why I’m focusing on 100 nuclear weapons as a threshold.) A nuclear winter occurs when soot from burning cities significantly reduces the amount of sunlight reaching Earth’s surface for a period of months or years, thereby causing temperatures to plummet and famines to ensue. Quite unsettlingly, it wasn’t until the 1980s — decades after we had enough nukes to blot out the sun — that the nuclear winter phenomenon was first identified, although lingering questions remain even today.

    The U.S. monopoly on world-ending power didn’t last long: by 1953, the Soviet Union had likewise expanded to 100 weapons. Now there were two nations on Earth that could obliterate civilization. But again, this didn’t last very long. The United Kingdom joined the club of potential world-enders around 1962, China around 1971, and France around 1973, with Israel, Pakistan, and India becoming members of this club in the 2010s. Hence, in less than a century, the world went from containing zero actors capable of unilaterally destroying the world to eight.

    This is a scary situation. Unfortunately, it’s getting worse — much worse. The reason is that states are no longer the only players in the game. Thanks to new technologies, nonstate actors such as terrorist groups and lone wolves are getting in on the action, too, and they might be a lot more willing than national governments to push the proverbial doomsday button.

    My own research suggests that the percentage of people who would push a doomsday button, if it were placed within finger’s reach, is fairly small, but the absolute number is unacceptably high. Even a quick Google search seems to affirm this. Consider the following answers, taken from different online sources, to the question of whether one would destroy the world if one could (quoting typos and all):

    “Yes. It is obvious that we gain nothing from living and there is a huge amount of human suffering that I find quite unjustifiable. The complete annihilation of the human race would be the greatest act of compassion ever.” Reddit.com

    “Yes, we suck as a human race.” Reddit.com

    “Yes. Because you all are assholes. And this is not a joke I would love to push something that ends humanity. I always thought about it and now there is the question about that topic and I am happy to say I want you all dead everyone single one of you fuckers. Please give me the chance to wipe out humanity.” Reddit.com

    “My view is that Mankind is a plague… I vote to destroy mankind and let nature start over.” Debate.org

    “The human animal is the only evil animal in the animal kingdom. We destroy everything… I email the president weekly and beg him to push the button and stop the madness already.” Debate.org

    “In the short time we’ve been on this planet, humans have already destroyed so much. We destroy ecosystems, and kill off entire species of animals… The world would be better off without humans as a whole.” Debate.org

    Of course, saying something definitely isn’t the same as doing it. Even so, can we be fully certain that not a single person in the world would attempt to follow through on his or her annihilatory fantasies? One way to approach this question is to look for historical examples of groups or people who both expressed a desire to kill everyone and committed some terrible act or acts of violence. The combination of these two phenomena implies that such people would be willing to act on their omnicidal (meaning killing everyone) impulses and willingly, perhaps even eagerly, push a doomsday button. So are there such examples?

    Unfortunately, yes. Lots of them. And they seem to fall into a handful of basic categories.

    Consider the disturbing case of Eric Harris, the psychopathic mastermind behind the 1999 Columbine High School massacre. His journal is full of all sorts of genuinely horrifying, ghoulish fantasies. On several occasions, he explicitly mentions his burning desire to extinguish humanity. At one point. he writes: “If you recall your history the Nazis came up with a ‘final solution’ to the Jewish problem. Kill them all. Well, in case you haven’t figured it out yet, I say ‘KILL MANKIND’ no one should survive.”

    Elsewhere, Harris mused, “I think I would want us to go extinct,” to which he added, “I have a goal to destroy as much as possible… I want to burn the world” and “I just wish I could actually DO this instead of just DREAM about it all.”

    When Harris and Dylan Klebold, his partner in crime, perpetrated their massacre in Columbine, they were equipped with garden-variety weapons. Dangerous to be sure, but hardly capable of “burning the world.” Can there be any doubt, though, that if Harris — who was relatively intelligent and liked math and science — had had access to some of the advanced technologies of tomorrow, he would have, when committing suicide, tried to go out with a much bigger bang?

    The Columbine massacre had a huge influence on later rampage shooters, some of whom also dreamt of omnicide. For example, in 2007, an 18-year-old Finnish student named Pekka-Eric Auvinen shot several people at his school, which he also tried to burn down. Like Harris, he wrote about “a final solution” as “the death of the entire human race,” and described his massacre as “an operation against humanity with the purpose of killing as many people as possible.” Yet another rampage shooter from Finland, Matti Saari, wrote in his suicide note, “I hate the human race, I hate mankind, I hate the whole world, and I want to kill as many people as possible.”

    Then, of course, there was Elliot Rodger, the incel psychopath who killed seven people and injured 14 in the 2014 Isla Vista killings. In a video shot one day before the rampage, he said in no uncertain terms: “I hate all of you. Humanity is a disgusting, wretched, depraved species. If I had it in my power, I would stop at nothing to reduce every single one of you to mountains of skulls and rivers of blood. And rightfully so. You deserve to be annihilated. And I’ll give that to you.”

    School shooters and other lone wolves have idiosyncratic motives, such as a misanthropic hatred of humanity, or a desire to retaliate against women for perceived romantic and sexual slights. Together, though, they comprise a relatively cohesive category of omnicidal actors, and a relatively unpredictable one at that.

    Another type of omnicidal actor comes in the form of apocalyptic terrorists who believe that to save the world, it must first be destroyed. ISIS, arguably the largest and richest terrorist group in history, is a paradigm case. While some members of ISIS probably didn’t hold apocalyptic beliefs, the leadership most certainly did — and they made strategic decisions based on these beliefs. The man who essentially founded ISIS, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, believed that Islam’s version of Armageddon was about to unfold around the small Syrian town of Dabiq. Hence, the name of the group’s propaganda magazine, Dabiq. After the U.S. military killed al-Zarqawi in 2006, leadership of ISIS transferred to Abu Ayyub al-Masri, a fevered apocalypticist who insisted that the Islamic end-of-days messianic figure, the “Mahdi,” was about to appear in Iraq. Like al-Zarqawi, he based his strategy on his apocalyptic belief — and it backfired. He soon met his end at the hands of Western forces.

    Both of these individuals really believed that the end was nigh, and that it was their duty to use violence — catastrophic violence, to be more specific — to bring about the apocalypse. ISIS members talked about acquiring nuclear weapons, releasing deadly pathogens, and building dirty bombs. I personally haven’t spoken to a single terrorism scholar who doesn’t think that ISIS would have gleefully pushed a “destroy-the-world” button, especially if Western forces were marching toward Dabiq.

    But ISIS is far from the only apocalyptic group. Famously, the doomsday cult Aum Shinrikyo attempted to trigger Armageddon by releasing sarin in the Tokyo subway in 1995. Here in the U.S., more than a dozen hate groups subscribe to Christian Identity, an apocalyptic worldview that endorses the use of catastrophic violence as a means of triggering a “race war” that will initiate the end of the world. And one of the bloodiest conflicts in human history, the Taiping Rebellion, involved an apocalyptic movement called the “Taiping Heavenly Kingdom.” This was led by a man named Hong Xiuquan, who believed that he was the brother of Jesus Christ, “commissioned by the Lord of Heaven to slay the devil-demons (Manchus) whose rule had brought ruin to China.”

    A final type of omnicidal actor lingers within the outermost fringe of radical environmentalist, anarcho-primitivist, and Neo-Luddite ideologies. Ted Kaczynski, better known as the Unabomber, provides an example par excellence. Beginning in 1978, Kaczynski perpetrated numerous domestic terrorist attacks, killing three people and injuring 23 others. A former UC Berkeley mathematics professor and Harvard alumnus, Kaczynski didn’t wish for humanity to go extinct. Rather, he wanted to trigger a global revolution against industrial society, with the ultimate goal of causing its collapse. Kaczynski ultimately didn’t care whether his revolution would cause people to die, since in his utilitarian calculus the ends would justify the means. As Kaczynski wrote in 1995: “This revolution may or may not make use of violence; it may be sudden or it may be a relatively gradual process spanning a few decades. Its object will be to overthrow not governments but the economic and technological basis of the present society.”

    In contrast, other actors in this category have explicitly embraced pro-extinction convictions. For example, the Gaia Liberation Front (GLF), an ecoterrorist group, holds as their mission “the total liberation of the Earth, which can be accomplished only through the extinction of the Humans as a species.” In advocating this, they argue that “if any Humans survive, they may start the whole thing over again. Our policy is to take no chances.”

    How might they accomplish their omnicidal aims? GLF contends that bioengineering is “the specific technology for doing the job right of annihilating humanity — and it’s something that could be done by just one person with the necessary expertise and access to the necessary equipment.” They continue: “…genetically engineered viruses… have the advantage of attacking only the target species. To complicate the search for a cure or a vaccine, and as insurance against the possibility that some Humans might be immune to a particular virus, several different viruses could be released (with provision being made for the release of a second round after the generals and the politicians had come out of their shelters).”

    This parallels an anonymous article in the Earth First! Journal, published in 1989, meaning that this idea has been around for a while: “Contributions are urgently solicited for scientific research on a species specific virus that will eliminate Homo shiticus from the planet. Only an absolutely species specific virus should be set loose. Otherwise it will be just another technological fix. Remember, Equal Rights for All Other Species.”

    While the most radical fringe of the environmentalist movement has avoided the limelight in recent years, some experts, such as the terrorism scholar Frances Flannery, expect a resurgence as climate and biodiversity crises worsen. This poses an obvious danger in a world replete with bullets and bombs; but it poses an existential threat in a world of cheap and easy gene editing. Technologies such as gene drives, digital-to-biological converters, and CRISPR-Cas9 are making it increasingly feasible to synthesize designer pathogens that could be far more devastating than anything found in nature.

    Are there any solutions to the problems posed by virus-toting omnicidal maniacs? One hard-to-avoid — and completely terrifying — answer is mass surveillance. This could take the form of what the philosopher Jeremy Bentham called a “panopticon,” whereby the state (perhaps run by computer programs designed specifically to govern — a form of government called “algocracy”) monitors every action of its citizens. The obvious danger is that this could collapse into tyrannical totalitarianism, which itself constitutes an existential risk.

    Another possibility involves what the science fiction writer, David Brin, dubs the “transparent society.” This would make surveillance egalitarian, so to speak: everyone would be able to see what everyone else is doing all the time, thereby enabling those watched to watch the watchers. Brin doesn’t argue that this is an ideal situation, only that it’s a better situation than one in which the state has all the power. Perhaps a total loss of privacy is the cost of existential security.

    Alternatively, I have previously claimed that, in order to reduce the risks posed by malicious agents like those mentioned above, society should prioritize mitigating climate change and ecological destruction. Both phenomena are threat multipliers and threat intensifiers, which means that they’ll introduce new problems while making old problems even worse. Better environmental policies would lower the threat posed by ecoterrorists, whose fundamental complaint — “Humans are stupidly destroying the biosphere” — is scientifically accurate. Such policies would also decrease the number and severity of natural disasters, which could fertilize apocalyptic fervor among religious extremists. As the terrorism scholar Mark Juergensmeyer has remarked, “radical times will breed radical religion,” a hypothesis apparently supported by the rise of ISIS during the Syrian civil war.

    Moving forward, people who care about human survival need to think hard not just about the various technologies that will become available, but about the types of actors who might try to use these technologies for catastrophic ill. The future of the human race could quite literally depend on it.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 22:30

  • Caught On Video: Hong Kong Protester Shot By Police During Morning Clashes; Hang Seng Tumbles
    Caught On Video: Hong Kong Protester Shot By Police During Morning Clashes; Hang Seng Tumbles

    Hong Kong police opened fire and hit at least one protester on Monday according to multiple news sources, as chaos erupted across the city a day after officers fired tear gas to break up demonstrations that are entering their sixth month.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Police fired live rounds at protesters on the eastern side of Hong Kong island, and local Cable TV said one protester was wounded when police opened fire.  Video footage showed a protester lying in a pool of blood with his eyes wide open. Police also pepper-sprayed and subdued a woman nearby as plastic crates were thrown at officers, the video shared on social media showed.

    A longer clip of the shooting is below. Reader discretion advised.

    The shot protester is said in critical condition, according to CableTB.

    Riot police soon appeared after the shooting,  helping the traffic officers subdue the protesters according to RTHK. Angry people started demanding explanations for the shooting, but were pepper sprayed by riot police. A woman who continued to confront the officers was thrown to the ground, then subdued, as the enraged crowd threw objects at the officers and cursed them.

    An ambulance arrived around six minutes after the shooting, by which time the first man who was shot appeared to be barely moving, lying in a pool of blood. The camera operator was by this time sobbing as he recounted the shooting to his audience.

    Following the shooting, police cordoned off the area, but a large crowd of many hundreds of people quickly gathered at the intersection, yelling abuse at the officers, many of them extremely emotional. Police ordered them to leave immediately, only to be ignored. Officers then used pepper spray on the crowd. Some then left, and officers rushed forward to arrest a few of them.

    Police issued a statement saying that radical protesters had set up barricades at multiple locations across the city and warned the demonstrators to “stop their illegal acts immediately.” They did not comment immediately on the apparent shooting.

    Services on some train and subway lines were alsodisrupted early on Monday, with riot police deployed near stations and shopping malls. Many universities cancelled classes on Monday and there were long traffic jams in some areas.

    Monday’s violence followed a 24th straight weekend of anti-government unrest as activists blocked roads and trashed shopping malls across Hong Kong’s New Territories and Kowloon peninsula.

    Today’s chaos follows the death last Friday of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology student Chow Tsz-lok, days after he fell in a car park near a police dispersal operation where tear gas had been fired.

    Protesters are angry about what they see as police brutality and meddling by Beijing in the former British colony’s freedoms, guaranteed by the “one country, two systems” formula put in place when the territory returned to Chinese rule in 1997. Meanwhile, China has repeatedly warned that continued violence could be met with a ground invasion of Hong Kong, although so far Beijing has demonstrated an unwillingness to escalate.

    The Hang Seng stock index tumbled more than 2% in early trading following news of the shooting.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 22:01

  • Bank Behind World's Largest Money Laundering Scandal Offered Russians Gold Bars To Hide Their Fortune
    Bank Behind World’s Largest Money Laundering Scandal Offered Russians Gold Bars To Hide Their Fortune

    When we last looked at Danske Bank, the Danish lender was at the center of what has been dubbed the world’s largest, $220 billion money-laundering scandal that allegedly involved Russians transferring funds offshore in violation of European regulations (it also involved the chronically criminal Deutsche Bank). Then, two months ago, the scandal took a lethal turn when the CEO of the bank’s Estonia branch was found dead in a still-unexplained suicide. Now, we learn of yet another bizarre twist in what some have dubbed the biggest dirty money scandal of all time: the Danish lender was offering gold bars to wealthy clients to help them keep their fortunes hidden.

    According to Bloomberg, the bank’s Estonian branch – whose CEO committed suicide – which was already wiring billions of client dollars to offshore accounts, told a select group of mostly Russian customers some time around 2012, that they could now also convert their money into gold bars and coins.

    So for those asking the benefits of holding money in physical gold instead of fiat (or crypto), here is the answer: aside from offering a hedge against risk, Danske presented gold as a way for clients to achieve “anonymity,” according to the documents. More importantly, the bank said that using gold ensured “portability” of assets, according to an internal presentation dated June 2012.

    As one would expect, the gold/money-laundering service did not come cheap: Danske charged a fee of 0.5% on larger orders, while smaller orders had a commission of as much as 4%.

    This is the first time we learn that Danske offered such “services” – in the bank’s own report on its non-resident unit, the bank listed the services it provided to clients. Aside from payments, these included setting up foreign-exchange lines, as well as bond and securities trading. The bank didn’t list the sale of gold bars.

    While it’s not known how much gold Danske managed to sell while the now defunct Estonian unit was still running, an internal email seen by Bloomberg revealed that at least some clients used the service. Local private banking clients were also offered the service.

    Furthermore, for gold bars weighing 250 grams or more, Danske clients could obtain the precious metal without a sealed pack or paper certificates. Bloomberg adds that anti-money laundering approval was needed before customers could collect the gold, but such approvals weren’t necessary if the gold was kept in long-term storage, according to the documents.

    The report goes on to note that the alleged “gold laundering” service – somewhat similar to the Turkey-Dubai-Iran PetroGold Triangle that emerged in 2012 as a means by which Iran evaded the Western blockade – was no longer offered after 2013, when the price of gold tumbled. A bank presentation dated from June 2012, when gold was trading close to an all-time high, told clients that “the product is not being advertised publicly or in the media.”

    Additional documents revealed that Danske’s Estonian branch sourced its gold from two partners, depending on the size of orders. One partner handled orders that exceeded 300,000 euros, equivalent to 6 kilograms at the time, and bought the gold from the Austrian mint; the other was used for smaller orders, according to the presentation, which didn’t name the suppliers.

    Some of the documents promoting gold bars are signed by Howard Wilkinson, the whistleblower who brought the Danske Bank laundering scandal into the public light. His lawyer, Stephen Kohn, didn’t immediately comment on the matter when contacted by Bloomberg.

    As reported previously, Danske Bank is currently investigated by the Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission in the U.S. In Europe, it’s the target of criminal probes by prosecutors in Denmark, Estonia and France, according to Bloomberg. The bank has also had several class-action lawsuits brought against it, and its former chief executive officer, Thomas Borgen, is under preliminary criminal investigation in Denmark, along with many other former directors at Danske.

    As an aside, gold has traditionally played a special role in the “historic ties” between Russia and Estonia, which was swallowed by the Soviet Union in 1940 after it gained independence following WWI, and which communists participating in the Russian revolution used as a bridge to channel vast quantities of gold taken from the murdered family of Czar Nicholas II into the West.

    In the early 1920s, about 700 tons of Czarist coins dodged a western blockade by passing through Tallinn with the knowledge of the country’s leaders, before heading for Scandinavia and the U.K. It now appears that Russian elite may have used the same path.

    It remains unclear who bought the Danske gold, or where it now resides.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 22:00

  • Gabbard And Trump Jr. Change America's View Of 'The View'
    Gabbard And Trump Jr. Change America’s View Of ‘The View’

    Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

    The unbearable harpies of The View that gather every weekday on ABC to show the world what toxic femininity looks like reached their peak of relevance this week thanks to two Presidential candidates, Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) and Donald Trump Jr. (R-Future).

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Both Gabbard and Trump Jr. sat in the middle seat and commanded it like they owned it, doing what most of America has been begging for for years, to put both the panel and their hand-picked audience in their place.

    Since she entered the race for the Democratic nomination Gabbard has been under consistent attack by the establishment.  They repeatedly make the arrogant mistake of trying to bully from their pulpit believing they can destroy a person of obvious character into submission who dissents from foreign policy orthodoxy, the true third-rail of American politics.

    The hope is that Gabbard will make a mistake which can be then played ad nauseum, ad infinitum until she slinks off the stage in shame.

    But Gabbard is too strong for that.  And the difference in demeanor and character was plainly evident as she turned on Joy Behar, the lead torchbearer for all things anti-Trump, war-like and pathetic.

    Gabbard didn’t waste time, taking the fight to The View before they knew what was happening.  Because she has learned in this game that you do not fight on ground prepared by your opponent. 

    You set the stage.  You command the field.  It’s safe to say she’s learned something while being in the military for the past seventeen years.

    Doing this, you make your opponents look petty, venal and stupid for saying the things they’re saying.

    By confronting her accusers directly Gabbard showed everyone watching the difference between the caricature created by Clinton and her cronies on The View and the reality of her character. 

    And that is the kind of narrative-breaking moment that sinks careers for some and defines them for others.

    Speaking of careers, like it or not, Donald Trump Jr. has a future in politics.  He came onto The View, like Gabbard the day before, armed to the teeth and ready use everything at his disposal. 

    He knows walking into that arena they aren’t going to fight fair, that they’ll fall back on the laziest of arguments, like Meghan McCain virtue signaling her false eyelashes off over “Gold Star Families” who are disrespected by President Trump’s private locker room conversation, while disgustingly wrapping herself in her dead father’s flag.

    And his comebacks and arguments were so strong that he had The View’s audience cheering for him.  It forced Joy Behar to publicly scold her audience that her show wasn’t a MAGA rally. 

    A very Behar moment — petty, venal and stupid.

    And when he goes anywhere near attacking their character they scream him down, and fade to black. Whoopi comes out looking like a pathetic bully having to ‘call for the bailiff’ to stop a conversation and fight she knows she’s going to lose.

    Because how do you excuse pedophilia unless you’re a sick twisted bitch?

    Trump Jr. in less than one seven-minute television segment ripped off their masks revealing the true depth of The View’s ugliness.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The View Revealed (H/T The Bleeding Fool)

    It was masterful.

    It proves that he learned at his father’s knee and is absolutely a force to be reckoned with.

    It revealed that The View’s view of America comes from Hell itself.

    These are bile-filled opportunists who champion infanticide, defend child molestation and cover for mass murderers while showing zero tolerance for dissent because ‘muh feelingz are your responsibility.’

    Newsflash for you Whoopie, they most certainly are not.

    Their worldview is so solipsistic the name of the show is ‘The View.’ Not A View or Our View.

    The View.

    Now, why is this important?  Why am I going on about this? 

    Because The View, like so much of televised media, is a pillar of the system of control to shape what you think, who you think these thoughts at and what to say to someone who doesn’t think them. 

    It exists to reinforce whatever narrative the self-serving Western oligarchy wants the women of America to think about politics. 

    When Gabbard went on, the establishment was already up to its neck burying the James O’Keefe’s bombshell video of Good Morning America’s Amy Robach talking about how her expose of Jeffrey Epstein was squashed by pressure from the British royal family.

    And for Gabbard and Trump Jr. to come in on consecutive days and rip The View apart reminds us just how sad and ineffectual that system has become.

    Because these incidents remind us that we live in a Post Dorothy Oz. 

    Dorothy pulled back the curtain to reveal a sad, pathetic man with no power and then goes home leaving a landscape behind her that will have to struggle with the loss of institutional control.  Oz is revealed as a false god and the Witch is dead but what’s next? 

    Because, we can see them.  We’re all wearing our Roddy Piper sunglasses.

    But are we ready to chew some bubblegum?

    I think so.

    Gabbard and Trump Jr. woke thousands of people up this week outside of their respective echo chambers. 

    They are becoming champions to the voiceless.  And everywhere we look new instances of “Jeffrey Epstein Didn’t Kill Himself” are springing up not just the Internet but the real world. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    It seems everyday more people are donning their Guy Fawkes masks ready to tear the entire rotten edifice down.

    The revolt against these revolting people is here.  Hillary Clinton still thinks she can call up her friends at CNN or ABC and seed her Alinsky-inspired talking point into the narrative to shape reality in her favor.

    That only works when the people are still willing to believe that the Wizard is all-powerful. 

    The system, however, doesn’t work anymore.  But unfortunately, the remnants of it are still functioning and capable of doing tremendous damage while it fails. 

    It doesn’t matter if we’re looking at places like Syria, Yemen, Hong Kong, the shit-filled streets of San Francisco or Libya.  These places all remain incredibly dangerous because while the control systems are failing, the infrastructure it protects is still operating.

    If anything, it’s going into overdrive with the push for pre-crime, total surveillance, the scrubbing of inconvenient historical truths and assaults on basic human liberties and dignity.

    And keepers of the status quo like Joy Behar, Whoopie Goldberg and ABC News will not survive it with their View intact.  

    *  *  *

    Join My Patreon if you think the wizard isn’t all-powerful. Install the Brave Browser if you don’t want to empower him.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 21:30

  • Old People Can Start Infusing Children's Blood Again
    Old People Can Start Infusing Children’s Blood Again

    Less than a year after the FDA warned old people against infusing the blood of young people, Stanford graduate Jesse Karmazin says his company, Ambrosia, is back in business despite the agency issuing a ‘buyer beware,’ according to OneZero.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Jesse Karmazin, the CEO and founder of Ambrosia, told OneZero in an interview that the company had resumed giving customers transfusions of plasma, the colorless liquid part of the blood, from young donors about a month ago. “Our patients really want the treatment,” he said. “Patients are receiving plasma transfusions from donors ages 16 to 25 again.” One-liter transfusions cost $8,000, and two-liter transfusions are $12,000. –OneZero

    Karmazin, who isn’t a licensed medical practitioner, stopped treating patients following the FDA announcement earlier this year and disabled his website.

    Now, young blood is back on the market – you just have to get it “off-label,” meaning a doctor can prescribe it for something other than its approved use.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Karmazin is a graduate of Stanford Medical School but does not have a license to practice medicine and does not do the transfusions himself. Instead, he contracts with doctors to do the procedures. When asked, he would not name any doctors he works with or other Ambrosia employees. He says the company does not obtain blood directly from young donors but gets it from licensed blood banks in the United States. –OneZero

    We’re a company interested in making you young again,” he said at a 2017 conference. The company says that “experiments in mice called parabiosis provided the inspiration to deliver treatments with young plasma.”

    That said, while plasma can help blood to clot or to manage excessive bleeding during surgeries, experts say there is no basis for using it to slow or reverse aging-related diseases as Karmazin has claimed.

    There is no proven clinical benefit of infusion of plasma from young donors to cure, mitigate, treat or prevent these conditions, and there are risks associated with the use of any plasma product,” read a February statement from FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb and Peter Marks, who leads the agency’s biologics center. 

    The reported uses of these products should not be assumed to be safe or effective,” the said. “We strongly discourage consumers from pursuing this therapy outside of clinical trials under appropriate institutional review board and regulatory oversight.” 

    “We’re concerned that some patients are being preyed upon by unscrupulous actors touting treatments of plasma from young donors as cures and remedies.”

    The agency told OneZero “The FDA has not licensed or approved any plasma product obtained from young donors for any use.”

    As of last fall, the company had performed the procedure on about 150 people ranging in age from 35 to 92, while 81% of those people participated in the company’s clinical trial. The trial gave patients one and a half liters of plasma from a donor between the ages of 16 and 25 and was conducted with David Wright, a physician who has his own intravenous blood therapy center in California.

    Trial participants footed the bill for their own treatments – while the results of their clinical trials have not been publicly released.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 21:00

  • Doug Casey On What Happens When Socialists Win Elections
    Doug Casey On What Happens When Socialists Win Elections

    Via InternationalMan.com,

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    International Man: Earlier this year, it became apparent a socialist would win Argentina’s presidential election.

    The Argentine peso lost 30% of its value in a single day. The same day, in US dollar terms, the value of the Argentine stock market was cut in half.

    Doug, you spend a lot of time in Argentina and the Southern Cone. What’s your take on the situation? Is Argentina headed for another currency collapse?

    Doug Casey: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was elected vice president and Alberto Fernández was elected president in the October 27 election. They basically destroyed the incumbent Mauricio Macri.

    It’s a real pity because Macri is a decent human being whose heart was is in the right place politically and economically. But he was too timid. He did too little too late. Typical of “conservatives” everywhere, he didn’t make a moral argument to the populace. He made no effort to pull the corrupt fascist welfare state out by its roots, explaining why it’s destructive and why the state is the cause, not the cure, of the country’s problems. Instead, he just made some marginal improvements around the edges, and made things more comfortable for the Peronists now that they’re back in office.

    And—since he’s associated with the free market—he actually discredited the free market.

    In any event, Argentina is going back into the toilet. Who knows what kind of new stupidities, in addition to the usual old stupidities, the two Fernándezes are going to impose upon the country?

    On the bright side—but only for tourists—Argentina is one of the cheapest countries in the world right now. That’s because the currency has collapsed. Good news for tourists and foreign speculators but a disaster for Argentines, most of whom have all their savings and earn their salaries in the increasingly worthless peso.

    If you’re a long-term believer in Argentina or if you want to enjoy a great lifestyle, now’s the time to go shopping there. Real estate is at bargain levels again. There’s really no bid for a lot of properties. In Buenos Aires an apartment costs 5–10% of its equivalent in New York or London.

    Things are definitely in crisis in Argentina. But the fact is that just about every other country in the world is heading in the wrong direction—at a faster or slower rate—certainly including the United States, Canada, and countries in western Europe. The socialists, the fascists, and the jingoists are in the ascendant all over the world.

    There are many reasons for this. One is that Marxist-oriented professors have been indoctrinating the younger generation in high school and college for decades. The left has totally taken over educational systems everywhere. The average person has been inculcated with perverse and destructive ideas about economics, politics, philosophy, and ethics from roughly age 6 to age 22. It’s hard to get these things out of their heads once they’ve learned them in their youth.

    Also, remember that, especially since the end of the 19th century, “democracy”—really just a polite form of mob rule—has been the world’s ruling ideology. It’s resulted in the politicization of all areas of society. When every parliament or legislature in the world meets, they believe it’s not just their right but their duty to pass new laws. And that’s idiotically applauded as a good thing by the hoi polloi. Those laws tell you what you must do and what you must not do and designate penalties if you don’t obey. And all that legislation, which accrues like barnacles on a ship’s hull, has to be paid for with taxes.

    Fortunately, science and technology are still advancing at the rate of Moore’s Law. Unfortunately, the world is degenerating politically at about the same rate. Argentina is not an aberration from that point of view. It’s just a generation or so “ahead” of the United States in sliding down the slippery slope.

    That said, it’s more important than ever that you have a crib in a second country, no matter where you live—because anything can happen anywhere. If you can afford it and are able to do so, you should have a backup plan someplace else in the world.

    International Man: As you said, Argentina isn’t the only country headed down a path toward economic hardship. Governments around the world are printing dollars, pounds, euros, pesos, and what have you by the trillions, and the trend seems to be accelerating. How do you see this playing out in the next few years?

    Doug Casey: We’re going into what I’ve styled the Greater Depression. We entered the leading edge of a gigantic financial and economic hurricane in 2007 and went through it in 2008 and 2009, and now we’re in the eye of the storm.

    It’s a very big hurricane, and the storm has a very big “eye,” but we’re now approaching the trailing edge. When we go into the storm’s trailing edge, it’s going to be much longer lasting, much different, and much worse than what we experienced in 2008—if anybody remembers how scary that was.

    It’s going to be accompanied by social, cultural, and probably military upsets as well. Now’s the time to prepare. It’s going to be one for the record books, and not just in the United States. It’s going to happen all over the world, because all the world’s central banks and governments think the same way. They’re all bankrupt and trying to solve the problems they’ve created by printing up more currency and passing more laws. It’s bad news.

    International Man: Americans are growing increasingly sympathetic to socialist ideas and politicians that promise “free stuff.” How does this trend translate into a situation like what’s happening in Argentina?

    Doug Casey: The world’s governments—prominently including the US’s—are creating massive new amounts of fiat money as we speak. So far, most of this money has gone into the financial markets, creating gigantic bubbles in stocks, bonds, and real estate. A lot of people are relying on these artificially high values. They’re going to get hurt.

    Over the coming decade, governments and their central banks are going to destroy their national currencies. The average guy—if he’s able to save at all—saves in dollars, euros, or yen, etc. He’s going to be wiped out.

    The rich will continue to get richer, because they stand next to the fire hose of money being created. The middle and lower classes resent the politically favoured classes getting more. The middle and bottom levels of society could see real social upset, with catastrophic political ramifications.

    It’s one of the reasons the odds favor Trump losing in 2020. I say that as someone who bet that he’d win in 2016. If the economy gets ugly, you’re going to get one of these absolutely crazy socialists or welfare statists that we see lined up on the Democratic debate stage. The best case is that somebody like Bloomberg—basically kind of a mellower Trump—steps in for the Democrats.

    On the off chance that Trump wins in 2020, then the storm is going to definitely break during his next administration. That guarantees that the crazy Democrats—which is to say the socialists, radical welfarites, and cultural Marxists—are going to win in the next election. The conflict in basic belief systems between the Red and Blue counties is so acrid and radical—it’s the kind atmosphere you see before a civil war.

    Who knows what either the Red or Blue people will do? They’re capable of absolutely anything. None of it good. I don’t see a way out.

    But let’s go back to Argentina for a minute. As I said, the US is only about a generation behind the Argentines, and the Argentine electorate has been totally corrupted. The place is a blueprint for where the United States is going.

    The US’s size, accumulated capital, and the productivity of its people have insulated it from a lot of the stupid things its government and the Fed have done. But if the US destroys its currency—and it’s well on the way to doing so—it will be much worse than when the Argentines destroy their currency.

    Argentines have hundreds of billions of dollars stored abroad in foreign banks. When the Argentine peso collapses, that money can be brought into Argentina to pick up the bargains and bring capital into the country to get things going again.

    If the US dollar is destroyed, however, it will be completely different.

    First, the dollar is the major asset of most banks all around the world. It’s actually the world’s currency. If the dollar goes, it’s going to destroy their balance sheets.

    Second, people all over the world who have foreign bank accounts generally save in dollars. They’re going to be devastated.

    Third, Americans don’t have a lot of money abroad to bring back into the country to get things going again. In fact, the US government has made it quite hard for the average American to diversify internationally.

    Fourth, the major US export for decades hasn’t been wheat or Boeings. It’s been dollars. The foreign trade deficit of $600 billion per year has given Americans an artificially high standard of living for many years. Nice foreigners give us real goods in exchange for fiat dollars. When confidence in the dollar collapses, Americans will feel it.

    So, it’s going to be extremely serious when the chickens come home to roost this time. It’s a consequence of what the Federal Reserve is doing to the dollar. They’re inflating it—but they call that “Quantitative Easing.”

    The Chinese symbol for the word crisis is a combination of the symbols for danger and opportunity. I’ve been pointing out the danger part, but I also want to point out the opportunity part of the equation.

    The good news is that precious metals should go on a really wild run up in price. If you own a lot of gold and silver, you should not only be insulated from many of these financial and economic problems, but you should gain in relative terms.

    The cheapest part of the market right now is gold and silver mining stocks. There’s going to be a panic into these stocks; they’re the only part of the stock market that offers real upside.

    It’s a good-news/bad-news type of thing. The good news being that if you position yourself now, you should be able to profit from what’s going to happen. The bad news is that in a real depression everybody loses; the winners are merely the ones who lose the least.

    The important thing to remember is that most of the real wealth in the world will still exist no matter how bad the Greater Depression is, and your share of it can grow if you allocate capital properly now.

    International Man: The 2020 presidential election is just around the corner. Whether Donald Trump gets reelected or a Democratic candidate wins, how do you think it will affect the overall economic situation in the US?

    An avalanche of money printing to finance deficit spending seems certain no matter who wins.

    Doug Casey: As I said before, if Trump is reelected because the economy holds together until November 2020—which I doubt—it’s definitely going to collapse on his next term in office.

    Trump is incorrectly associated with the free market and capitalism. Trump is basically a statist who thinks the government really ought to control the economy—but in the way he thinks best. Once again capitalism—what’s left of it—will be blamed in the next crisis, and in the following election the socialists will grab the economy in a stranglehold and choke it to death.

    In a way, it doesn’t matter if the socialists win this time or the next time. The trend is in motion, and a real crisis seems inevitable.

    I think the United States is going to be hard to recognize in five years. That’s not even counting the fact that the US government might have a serious war with the Iranians, the Chinese, or the Russians. None of this is necessary, but it’s probable.

    International Man: What can people do to protect themselves and prevent the crisis from wiping them out?

    Doug Casey: Buy physical gold and silver. Speculate in mining stocks. Be aware that commodities in general— and especially agricultural commodities like corn, soybeans, cattle, hogs, coffee, orange juice—are all very, very cheap.

    It’s likely that we’re going to see an explosion in some or all of these things over the next few years. Last but not least, start getting into some—or all—of the second- and third-generation cryptocurrencies. My colleague Marco Wutzer, who knows about ten times more than anyone else in the field, makes an excellent case that some of them have 1,000-to-one potential from current levels.

    *  *  *

    Marco just released a new exclusive video on what he thinks is the most compelling crypto play right now. Click here to watch it now.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 20:30

  • California Approves $3.2 Billion Bond For High Speed Train To Nowhere
    California Approves $3.2 Billion Bond For High Speed Train To Nowhere

    The high speed train is dead, long live the high speed train.

    Less than a year after California Gov. Gavin Newsom brought California’s dreams for a LA to San Fran bullet train crashing down, when he said in February that he is ending the state’s hugely expensive and hopelessly quixotic high-speed rail line fiasco (which would have been completed in 2033 at a staggering cost of $77 billion), California is about to unleash another high speed train project, and this one is even more idiotic.

    The California Infrastructure and Economic Development Bank (IBank) has authorized a $3.2 billion tax-exempt, fixed-rate revenue bond issuance to help DesertXpress Enterprises, an affiliate of Virgin Trains USA, build a high-speed train from Victorville, California, to Las Vegas. The new XpressWest service, at speeds of up to 180 miles per hour, will take about 90 minutes one way. 

    There is just one problem: Victorville, located in SoCal’s high desert, is quite literally in the middle of nowhere.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    More on that in a second.

    DesertXpress will be able to use the money to pay for the 135 miles of the project located within the state of California. This, according to ConstructionDrive, includes the costs of design, development, construction, operation and maintenance of the rail system itself; a passenger station; a maintenance facility; train cars; and electrification infrastructure. DesertXpress will also be able to use the bonds, which are sponsored by the California county of San Bernardino, to establish a debt service reserve fund, as well as pay for interest and other bond-related expenses. While total spending is listed at around $4.8 billion, “hard construction costs” are $3.6 billion.

    Construction, which is expected to begin in the second half of 2020 and wrap up in 2023, according to an IBank staff report, will generate more than 15,800 temporary construction jobs.

    That’s the good news. The bad news is… what the hell are they thinking?

    In theory, it’s not a terrible idea: California has for decades sought to find a fast path between Los Angleles and Las Vegas. In practice, the fact that the train runs to Victorville assures that the project is DOA.

    The XpressWest between California and Las Vegas, according to the IBank staff report, will take about half the time of a car trip, but Randal O’Toole, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, thinks that there simply won’t be enough potential passengers — at least enough to make the new bullet train a success.

    “If you’re driving from Los Angeles to Victorville, by the time you get there, you’re pretty much halfway to Vegas,” O’Toole said, “so why would you stop and leave your car somewhere and take a train and then have to walk to wherever your destination is — or take a cab or an Uber or Lyft — when you can just drive your car there?”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    That’s probably a question the creators of the project should have asked first.

    Here’s the problem: the distance between Los Angeles and Victorville is about 90 miles and about 190 miles from Victorville to Las Vegas.

    “Driving from Los Angeles to Victorville,” O’Toole said, “you’re driving through all the traffic — you’re driving over the mountains … and you get to Victorville and it’s just a straight shot to Las Vegas. It’s more miles, but there’s very little traffic.

    “If they were going to go from Los Angeles to Las Vegas, they might have a chance of attracting some customers, but going through the mountain would be extremely expensive,” he said. “They’re building the easy part of the rail line but not the part that they need to build to actually attract customers.”

    Virgin Trains USA is a majority owner of Virgin Trains USA Florida, formerly known as Brightline, and currently owns and operates an express rail passenger rail system that runs from Miami to West Palm Beach. The company is building a $4 billion extension to Orlando International Airport. The estimated completion date is sometime in 2022.

    And while the company’s projects may be viable in Florida, they will be another epic waste of funds in California.

    Meanwhile, when we said that the first high speed train is dead, well that wasn’t quite right: the construction of the original California bullet train is still chugging along, albeit on a reduced scale. While Governor Gavin Newsom shelved the California High-Speed Rail Authority’s plans for a $77 billion rail line between San Francisco and Los Angeles after amid concerns over escalating costs and schedule delays, the governor limited work to the $20 billion Central Valley portion of the project that will take passengers between Bakersfield and Merced.

    In other words, another high speed train going from nowhere to nowhere.

    So why does California continue to press along with not one but two train projects it knows will be a disaster? The answer is simple: “free” Federal money. The High-Speed Rail authority is trying to beat a Dec. 31, 2022 deadline in order to not lose a $929 million Federal Railroad Administration grant for that particular segment.

    In other words, instead of saving almost a billion dollars in taxpayer funds, and applying them to something useful, California is willing to begin a project which everyone knows will be a catastrophic waste of funds, but since the money has to be spent, even if it means digging holes just to fill them up again… well, so be it. After all, this is the government hard at work.

     


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 20:11

  • Young First-Time Buyers Are Vanishing From US Housing Market
    Young First-Time Buyers Are Vanishing From US Housing Market

    Seeing as most young Americans are saddled with student-loan debt, underemployment and other economic blights, few have any money left for important large purchases like a home. At this point, it’s beginning to look like millennials will be remembered as the first rentier generation in the country’s history.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    To wit, according to data from the National Association of Realtors, the median age of first-time home buyers has increased to 33 in 2019, the highest median age since they started collecting the data back in 1981. Meanwhile, the median age for all buyers hit a fresh record high of 47, climbing for the third straight year, and well above the median age of 31 in 1981.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Source: Bloomberg

    Though the median age for first timers only increased by one year, BBG reports that it reflects a variety of factors impacting those who are searching for a home.

    For one, since the housing-market collapse ten years ago, construction of affordable housing has never recovered. Low housing stock, coupled with low interest rates, has stoked higher prices, especially in more affordable markets from the coasts to the middle of the country. This made circumstances ideal for older Americans with more assets to borrow against and cash on hand. But younger Americans who don’t have enough saved for a down payment lost out.

    “Housing affordability is so difficult today, especially when coupled with rising rents and student loan debt, that they’re finding different ways to enter home ownership,” said Jessica Lautz, vice president of demographics and behavioral insights at the Realtors group in Washington.

    That’s not all: the percentage of first-time buyers who are married has declined as more single people buy homes to share with girlfriends, boyfriends or roommates. As the average ages of home buyers increases, average incomes have also risen. The median income of purchasers rose to $93,200 in 2018 as the disappearance of affordable housing pushes low-income buyers out of the market.

    Factoring in the expansion of economic inequality, young buyers who do manage to buy their own homes typically receive a small gift from their relatives to help cover the down payment first.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 20:00

  • Mauldin: How China Plans To Take Over The US
    Mauldin: How China Plans To Take Over The US

    Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com,

    When the US and ultimately the rest of the Western world began to engage China, resulting in China finally being allowed into the World Trade Organization in the early 2000s, no one really expected the outcomes we see today.

    There is no simple disengagement path, given the scope of economic and legal entanglements. This isn’t a “trade” we can simply walk away from.

    But it is also one that, if allowed to continue in its current form, could lead to a loss of personal freedom for Western civilization. It really is that much of an existential question.

    Doing nothing isn’t an especially good option because, like it or not, the world is becoming something quite different than we expected just a few years ago—not just technologically, but geopolitically and socially.

    China and the West

    Let’s begin with how we got here.

    My generation came of age during the Cold War. China was a huge, impoverished odd duck in those years. In the late 1970s, China began slowly opening to the West. Change unfolded gradually but by the 1990s, serious people wanted to bring China into the modern world, and China wanted to join it.

    Understand that China’s total GDP in 1980 was under $90 billion in current dollars. Today, it is over $12 trillion. The world has never seen such enormous economic growth in such a short time.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Meanwhile, the Soviet Union collapsed and the internet was born. The US, as sole superpower, saw opportunities everywhere. American businesses shifted production to lower-cost countries. Thus came the incredible extension of globalization.

    We in the Western world thought (somewhat arrogantly, in hindsight) everyone else wanted to be like us. It made sense. Our ideas, freedom, and technology had won both World War II and the Cold War that followed it. Obviously, our ways were best.

    But that wasn’t obvious to people elsewhere, most notably China. Leaders in Beijing may have admired our accomplishments, but not enough to abandon Communism.

    They merely adapted and rebranded it. We perceived a bigger change than there actually was. Today’s Chinese communists are nowhere near Mao’s kind of communism. Xi calls it “Socialism with a Chinese character.” It appears to be a dynamic capitalistic market, but is also a totalitarian, top-down structure with rigid rules and social restrictions.

    So here we are, our economy now hardwired with an autocratic regime that has no interest in becoming like us.

    China’s Hundred-Year Marathon

    In The Hundred-Year Marathon, Michael Pillsbury marshals a lot of evidence showing the Chinese government has a detailed strategy to overtake the US as the world’s dominant power.

    They want to do this by 2049, the centennial of China’s Communist revolution.

    The strategy has been well documented in Chinese literature, published and sanctioned by organizations of the People’s Liberation Army, for well over 50 years.

    And just as we have hawks and moderates on China within the US, there are hawks and moderates within China about how to engage the West. Unfortunately, the hawks are ascendant, embodied most clearly in Xi Jinping.

    Xi’s vision of the Chinese Communist Party controlling the state and eventually influencing and even controlling the rest of the world is clear. These are not merely words for the consumption of the masses. They are instructions to party members.

    Grand dreams of world domination are part and parcel of communist ideologies, going all the way back to Karl Marx. For the Chinese, this blends with the country’s own long history.

    It isn’t always clear to Western minds whether they actually believe the rhetoric or simply use it to keep the peasantry in line. Pillsbury says Xi Jinping really sees this as China’s destiny, and himself as the leader who will deliver it.

    To that end, according to Pillsbury, the Chinese manipulated Western politicians and business leaders into thinking China was evolving toward democracy and capitalism. In fact, the intent was to acquire our capital, technology, and other resources for use in China’s own modernization.

    It worked, too.

    Over the last 20–30 years, we have equipped the Chinese with almost everything they need to match us, technologically and otherwise. Hundreds of billions of Western dollars have been spent developing China and its state-owned businesses.

    Sometimes this happened voluntarily, as companies gave away trade secrets in the (often futile) hope it would let them access China’s huge market. Other times it was outright theft. In either case, this was no accident but part of a long-term plan.

    Pillsbury (who, by the way, advises the White House including the president himself) thinks the clash is intensifying because President Trump’s China skepticism is disrupting the Chinese plan. They see his talk of restoring America’s greatness as an affront to their own dreams.

    In any case, we have reached a crossroads. What do we do about China now?

    Targeted Response

    In crafting a response, the first step is to define the problem correctly and specifically. We hear a lot about China cheating on trade deals and taking jobs from Americans. That’s not entirely wrong, but it’s also not the main challenge.

    I believe in free trade. I think David Ricardo was right about comparative advantage: Every nation is better off if all specialize in whatever they do best.

    However, free trade doesn’t mean nations need to arm their potential adversaries. Nowadays, military superiority is less about factories and shipyards than high-tech weapons and cyberwarfare. Much of our “peaceful” technology is easily weaponized.

    This means our response has to be narrowly targeted at specific companies and products. Broad-based tariffs are the opposite of what we should be doing. Ditto for capital controls.

    They are blunt instruments that may feel good to swing, but they hurt the wrong people and may not accomplish what we want.

    We should not be using the blunt tool of tariffs to fight a trade deficit that is actually necessary.  The Chinese are not paying our tariffs; US consumers are.

    Importing t-shirts and sneakers from China doesn’t threaten our national security. Let that kind of trade continue unmolested and work instead on protecting our advantages in quantum computing, artificial intelligence, autonomous drones, and so on.

    The Trump administration appears to (finally) be getting this. They are clearly seeking ways to pull back the various tariffs and ramping up other efforts.

    *  *  *

    I predict an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in history. And most investors are completely unaware of the pressure building right now. Learn more here.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 19:30

  • WeWork Disaster Aftermath: With 97% Of Companies Using Non-GAAP Metrics, Is Everything Fake?
    WeWork Disaster Aftermath: With 97% Of Companies Using Non-GAAP Metrics, Is Everything Fake?

    Back in August 2018, long before WeWork’s historic implosion, we discussed how WeWork’s EBITDA is “whatever you want it to be” thanks to the company’s bizarre pro forma addbacks, which transformed a $933MM net loss and a $193 million adjusted EBITDA loss, into a “positive” $233 million “community-adusted” EBITDA for 2017, and a net loss of about $1.9 billion using standard accounting, to a $467 million “profit” in 2018.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    This is what we said:

    Here, for the first time we saw not just one adjustment to adjusted EBITDA, but an adjustment to the adjustment to the adjustment, and it was called “Community Adjusted EBITDA”, which by the miracles of non-GAAP “accounting”, pushed the company’s EBITDA from negative $193 million to positive $233 million.

    We made this observation in the context of Moody’s inexplicably scrapping its B3 credit rating on WeWork. Commenting on this, we said:

    It wasn’t clear why Moody’s – the rating agency with the lowest opinion of the office space leasing company – withdrew its rating, but it could be an indication that finally rating agencies are getting tired of the bizarre – and in this case, ridiculous – adjustments that companies increasingly come up with to lipstick their pig, and present their company in a far better light than reality.

    Fast forward to today, when the topic of WeWork’s community-adjusted EBITDA has once again come up after the WSJ reported that in the weeks before its now failed attempt to go public, the SEC had “ordered WeWork to remove the measure, before the company offered to substantially change it.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Specifically, according to a WSJ report on the “wrangling” that was taking place between WeWork and the SEC over whether or not to include the grotesque EBITDA adjustment, which the company had since renamed to the less jarring “contribution margin”, as the IPO loomed, “the SEC zeroed in on how WeWork framed its heavy losses, particularly through a bespoke profitability metric called “contribution margin,” a version of which had formerly been known as “community-adjusted Ebitda.” The agency had first ordered WeWork to remove the measure, before the company offered to substantially change it.”

    Demonstrating just how seriously corporations takes the SEC, however, the day before WeWork had hoped to start the roadshow to peddle its IPO to investors, the metric was still mentioned in its revised prospectus more than 100 times (WeWork supposedly planned to amend the filing before starting the roadshow — but instead shelved the IPO, as investors questioned the company’s worth and its corporate governance.)

    There are two key points here: the first, of course, is that WeWork was hoping to mislead investors (all of whom were sophisticated enough to know the garbage that “community-adjusted” anything is) by keeping this massive pro forma adjustment; the second is that WeWork appears to be openly defying the SEC’s instructions on cleaning up its prospectus – something it obviously couldn’t do if it hoped to deflect attention from the company’s massive losses.

    “It’s highly unusual to have issues that are so important still being disputed while they are out there marketing the stock to investors,” said Minor Myers, a law professor at the University of Connecticut who reviewed the correspondence at the Journal’s request. As WeWork was battling the SEC over its metrics, its advisers were “figuring what they can sell using these numbers,” Mr. Myers added.

    The WSJ also reports that WeWork’s resistance to removing the metric was directed by Mr. Neumann himself, who had “previously boasted about the metric to reporters and investors, to show how the company’s core business was profitable.”

    Of course, the core business wasn’t profitable as demonstrating previously just how dismal WeWork’s real bottom line was:

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Furthermore, if WeWork was “profitable” along any metric, it would not have scrapped its IPO and demanded a SoftBank bailout.

    It wasn’t just the community-adjusted EBITDA that was a concern for the SEC: among other issues the SEC targeted was what the WeWork prospectus called “illustrative annual economics.” The agency questioned how the company had arrived at some rosy numbers. “Please explain to readers and tell us how your assumed workstation utilization rate of 100% is realistic,” its letter said. In reply, WeWork agreed to drop the illustrative economics section from the prospectus.

    The bottom line, as the WSJ summarizes, “WeWork’s liberal use of customized metrics that don’t comply with generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, was central to its wrangling with the SEC, according to people close to the process. The draft prospectus WeWork filed in December cited at least six non-GAAP metrics; by the time it issued the prospectus in August, the tally had fallen.”

    Yet even after the back and forth with the SEC, and the IPO debacle, WeWork refused to change its way: on Friday, after markets closed, WeWork published a slide deck from Oct. 11—long after the company’s self-annointed messiah, Adam Neumann resigned, that showed financial results including a “location contribution margin” that appeared to be a renamed version of the metric at the center of its dispute with the SEC.

    In short, once you start lying to the investing public in how you misrepresent your business, it is virtually impossible to stop, unless you are SoftBank of course in which case you just assume everyone is an idiot as Masa Son’s financial juggernaut did with these two slides.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    However, it is not our intention here to focus on WeWork’s fake financials – we did that last August. Instead, it’s to point out that there is never just one cockroach. In fact, when it comes to non-GAAP adjustments, and “fake numbers”, one can say that everyone is a cockroach: as the WSJ points out, nearly all big companies now use at least one non-GAAP financial metric. Last year, 97% of S&P 500 companies used non-GAAP metrics, up from 59% in 1996, according Audit Analytics.

    Which begs the question: in the aftermath of the WeWork fiasco, which relied exclusively on non-GAAP, “community” adjustments to make its financials appear respectable even though fundamentally they were a disaster, is every financial report – and with 97% out of all companies using non-GAAP metrics one can be excused to use the term “ever” – nothing but fake financial news, and when the veil is finally lifted, as was the case with We Work, what will happen to all those trillions in market capitalization built upon “one-time”, “non-recurring” addbacks and pro forma, adjusted, recasted and otherwise fake foundations?


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 19:00

  • The Long March Has Paid Off: Millennials Love Socialism
    The Long March Has Paid Off: Millennials Love Socialism

    Authored by Onar Am via LibertyNation.com,

    According to a new poll conducted by the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, 70% of millennials would likely vote for a socialist candidate. Furthermore, 19% of them see The Communist Manifesto as a surer guarantee of freedom and equality than the Declaration of Independence, and 15% think that the world would be a better place if the Soviet Union still existed.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The Conundrum

    To many, this may come as a shock. Socialism has failed wherever it has been tried and communism has cost the lives of more people than any other ideology in a comparable amount of time. Historical circumstances produced a near-perfect scientific test of the system in the 20th century. In every case, communism failed – ending in a bloodbath, regardless of race, ethnicity, culture, and development stage.

    Simultaneously, near-capitalist societies were tested with those same ethnicities and cultures: East- versus West-Germany, North- versus South-Korea, and Hong Kong versus mainland China. The outcome was as conclusive and decisive as any social experiment could ever get: While capitalism lifted people out of poverty and created largely stable and prosperous societies, communism produced murderous and oppressive hellholes from which people desperately tried to flee.

    Given the massive evidence of the positive effects of capitalism and the disastrous results of socialism, a resurgence of communism should have been impossible. How could it happen?

    The Long March Through The Institutions

    The answer is straightforward: Teachers and professors are bombarding students with communist propaganda. They teach that the U.S. was founded on slavery while conveniently overlooking the fact that western civilization is the only one in the world to have successfully abolished slavery.

    They teach that Hitler was the vilest person ever to have existed but conveniently forget to mention that Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, Ceausescu, Mugabe, Barre, and Castro together killed far more than 100 million people and enslaved many more across four continents. Students learn about the Holocaust, but not the Holodomor.

    The professors are not doing this out of ignorance. After World War II, when it became clear that Marxism could never compete with capitalism as an economic system, the radical left formulated a strategy of achieving their utopia by taking over the educational institutions and indoctrinating children with their worldview.

    That would have sounded like a conspiracy theory if it hadn’t been for the fact that leftists have been open about this goal for a long time. In the 1960s, German communist Rudi Dutschke formulated the slogan the “long march through the institutions.” He described it as a way of creating the necessary conditions for a communist revolution by infiltrating said institutions. One of the prominent figures of the so-called Frankfurt School in America, Herbert Marcuse, agreed with this strategy in 1971: “[I] regard your notion of the ‘long march through the institutions’ as the only effective way … ”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    In his recent book The Madness of Crowds, author Douglas Murray documents that leftists in the 1980s saw the working class voting for Ronald Reagan as traitors to the socialist cause and therefore needed to turn their back on ordinary people and instead make minorities the focus of their campaign to destroy capitalism.

    The near-unthinkable surge of socialist and communist sympathies among millennials in the freest, most prosperous nation in the world is the result of that 70-year-long march through the institutions.

    A Feature, Not A Bug

    But why? Why would a group of radical leftists want to destroy the system that has uplifted so many people out of poverty in favor of a system that has murdered millions? In a conversation with Eric Weinstein, Peter Thiel presents a chilling possibility. Mass murder is a feature of communism, not a bug:

    “My Stanford professor René Gerard had the observation that communism among Western intellectuals became unfashionable in 1953, the year Stalin died, and the reason was that they were not communists despite the millions of people being killed; they were communists because of it.”

    For naïve students, communism and socialism are just idealistic fantasies – but how many of their professors harbor far more sinister motivations?


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 18:30

  • Onerous Loan Terms Are Crippling Already Broke Subprime Auto Buyers
    Onerous Loan Terms Are Crippling Already Broke Subprime Auto Buyers

    As the bubble in subprime auto continues to grow bigger – even at the same time the auto industry is mired in recession – terms on new loans for new buyers continue to get more burdensome for already broke consumers. 

    In fact, many people are piling on debt to their auto loans that far exceeds the car’s value, according to the Wall Street Journal. Like homeowners during the financial crisis, this leaves many people with negative equity or “underwater”.

    33% of people who traded in cars to buy new ones in the first nine months of 2019 had negative equity. This compares to 28% five years ago and 19% 10 years ago. The borrowers owed about $5,000, on average, after trading in their cars before taking on new loans. Five years ago that figure stood at an average of about $4,000.

    And the rise in car prices isn’t helping, either. Easy lending standards are helping perpetuate the cycle, with lenders now issuing loans that can last 7 years or longer, as we have documented here on Zero Hedge. 

    Borrowers remain responsible for paying their remaining debt even after they get rid of the vehicle that’s tied to it. When buying a new car, they just roll this debt into a new loan. Dealerships, who now make more money on financing than on selling the car, encourage this type of refinancing. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Consumer lawyers say that customers are often forced to trade in their vehicles, either due to changing needs or vehicle problems. 

    David Goldsmith, a lawyer who defends consumers in auto cases said: “These aren’t Rolls-Royces. They’re Ford Escapes.”

    Borrowers that have negative equity at the time of buying a new vehicle are often saddled with longer loan terms, higher interest rates and higher monthly payments. The higher rates and longer amortization schedule means that a smaller share of their payments go to paying off their principal. The result is obvious: many consumers wind up deeper and deeper in the hole everytime they trade in a new vehicle. 

    Underwater loans are most prevalent with subprime borrowers, mainly due to consumers with lower credit scores lacking the means to pay off the remaining balances on their loans before taking out the next one. In the even of a default, lenders generally take possession of the vehicles and try to resell them. That money is then applied to the unpaid balance, but often isn’t enough to cover the total balance. 

    Most of these loans are originated at dealerships now, which then assign the loans to a number of lenders, banks and credit unions. Many loans are also bundled into bonds and sold to Wall Street.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The added debt from these loans can make it difficult for borrowers to stay current. 5.2% of outstanding securitized subprime auto loan balances were at least 60 days past due on a rolling 12 month average period ending June 2019. This is up from 4.8% the year before and 4.9% two years prior. 

    Nicole-Malia Tennent and Shyanne Fernandez, both in their early 20s, are a perfect example. They sought to trade in the car they shared for something less expensive last year. They instead ended up splurging on a new vehicle and rolling over their $12,500 unpaid loan balance from their last car into a loan for a new 2018 GMC Sierra. 

    The new loan balance stood at $66,000 as a result of the old loan being rolled over. They split the payment of $900 per month now, which they have 84 months to pay off. Their old loan was about $500 per month.


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 18:00

  • Morgan Stanley: "Climate Will Be A Key Driver Of Asset Prices In The Months And Years Ahead"
    Morgan Stanley: “Climate Will Be A Key Driver Of Asset Prices In The Months And Years Ahead”

    “Sunday Start”, authored by Morgan Stanley equity strategist, Jessica Alsford

    In three weeks, the world’s leaders will begin to gather in Madrid for the 25th United Nations Climate Change Conference. The intensity of the global climate strikes this year suggests that the proceedings will be scrutinized as never before. But the decisions made, or not made, will also have repercussions for global markets.

    We’re transitioning towards a lower carbon economy, albeit at a slower pace than needed to stay within a two degrees Celsius climate scenario (2DS). For companies that can build offshore wind installations, develop electric vehicles and manufacture renewable diesels, we see potential for material earnings growth. In Decarbonisation: The Race to Net Zero, we estimated that more than US$50 trillion of capital will need to be deployed into renewables, EVs, hydrogen, biofuels and carbon capture and storage over the next 30 years, putting US$3-10 trillion of EBIT up for grabs.

    Decarbonising electricity is the largest opportunity to reduce carbon emissions, with the power sector responsible for a quarter of global emissions. Strong renewables growth should be achievable given the significant improvements we’ve seen in solar and wind economics. But costs continue to constrain many other clean technologies, including battery storage, green hydrogen, CCS and biofuels.

    If governments are serious about halting climate change, some form of stimulus will be needed.

    Subsidies have already been key in industries like renewables. In the US, federal subsidies have helped to drive the transition to renewable energy, which rose from 14% of total power generation capacity in 2000 to 24% in 2018.

    One alternative is to make high-carbon incumbents prohibitively expensive. European regulation on CO2 emissions, together with city bans on diesel, has catalyzed investment by global OEMs into electric vehicles. While the transition will be costly for the autos industry, it’s hard to see another path towards achieving aggressive targets.

    Taxes should be another means of incentivizing investment in low-carbon technologies, but they remain ineffective. Even in Europe, where the carbon price has increased three-fold since the end of 2017, it remains far below the US$75 per tonne estimated by the IMF as necessary by 2030 to achieve a 2DS.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Even if the price of carbon rises to that level, a global tax is needed, through either a multilateral agreement or a carbon border adjustment. Domestic carbon taxes are unlikely to succeed in a world where many industries can move to regions with less punitive environmental regimes.

    Until now, the willingness of governments to take steps to halt climate change has been open to question, given the potential implications for inflation, government debt and employment. But we see several reasons why change may come over the next 12 months. Significantly, awareness and concern about climate change among the general population are growing, driven by more frequent extreme weather, media coverage and actions by protest groups.

    Regarding political appetite for change, we see notable shifts in tone across the world. The EC’s incoming president, Ursula von der Leyen, has announced the intention to create a climate plan. This includes legislation to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, the introduction of a green border tax and the creation of a fund to advance a “just transition”. In the US, the current administration has formally notified the UN that it intends to withdraw from the Paris Agreement the day after the 2020 presidential election. However, the majority of Democratic candidates have made climate change a key item in their policy agendas.

    Climate and carbon could also become drivers of QE. Christine Lagarde has made it abundantly clear that climate change will be a priority during her tenure as ECB president, suggesting that the central bank might use monetary policy to support a climate-friendly stance.

    As with many market drivers, it’s hard to pinpoint the moment when a risk will become a reality. But to us, the direction of travel for the carbon price is clear. Challenges still lie ahead, but if the next 12 months don’t bring a material response from the world’s leaders, we see an increasing likelihood that carbon will impact asset prices through other channels. Between 2016-18, climate-related disasters such as wildfires and hurricanes have caused over US$650 billion worth of economic damage worldwide (or 28bp of global GDP).

    Whichever trajectory we end up following, it seems clear that climate will be a key driver of asset prices in the months and years ahead.

    * * *

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 17:30

  • Twitter CEO Hosted MbS 6 Months AFTER Saudi Spies Discovered Within The Company
    Twitter CEO Hosted MbS 6 Months AFTER Saudi Spies Discovered Within The Company

    More fallout at Twitter after it was revealed last week that that two Twitter employees spied on users on behalf of Saudi Arabia — and after the arrest of one as another fled the country: CEO Jack Dorsey had actually met privately with crown prince Mohammed bin Salman six months after the company uncovered the Saudi intelligence infiltration, a new report has revealed. 

    Middle East Eye uncovered the critical timeline related to the meeting via the Justice Department’s criminal complaint filed in California, which raises a host of pressing questions, given the scandal was known internally to Twitter executives by December 2015, yet Dorsey sat down with MbS in June 2016. Middle East Eye reported Saturday:

    Lawyers for one of the Saudi dissidents targeted in the operation say Dorsey and Mohammed bin Salman’s meeting raises questions about what the CEO of Twitter, a company which has seen massive Saudi investment in recent years, knew and when he knew it.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Via the Middle East Eye report: Jack Dorsey and MbS shaking hands in photo posted by Bader al-Asaker in June 2016. Image source: Instagram

    The Washington Post reported that two employees working for the company in 2015 accessed the private information of more than 6,000 Twitter accounts. Their Saudi intelligence “handler” had actually been a close associate to MbS at the time. And yet even after this bombshell scandal was unearthed internally Jack appeared chummy and business as usual with MbS in New York

    Crucially, at least one of the accounts accessed by the spies could be related to the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, given it belongs Saudi dissident Omar Abdulaziz, well-known to have been a close friend and confidant of Khashoggi. 

    Thus it’s further important to remember that this major Saudi spy infiltration of Twitter occurred significantly prior to the October 2, 2018 murder of Khashoggi by a Saudi hit team at the Istanbul consulate. What did Jack know and when of the personal Twitter information collected on Saudi dissidents accessed from within the company? Did he broach the issue with MbS during their 2016 meeting? 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The two former Twitter employees, identified as Ahmad Abouammo and Ali Alzabarah – the former arrested in Seattle and the latter believed to have fled US soil – along with their alleged Saudi intelligence ‘handler’ Ahmed Almutairi, who was identified as serving as the intermediary between Saudi Arabia and the Twitter staff, were central to the broader MbS campaign to muzzle critics and activists overseas

    According to the criminal complaint, Twitter did take some limited action a week after uncovering the spy plot to warn several dozen users that they “may have been targeted by state-sponsored actors”. 

    The attorney for the friend of Khashoggi who was targetted, Omar Abdulaziz, told Middle East Eye the following:

    “The thing that strikes me is when you look through the government’s complaint, this guy hacked 5,500 records in June. That’s not a small number. It raises the question about what Twitter did and did not want to know,” said Mark Kleiman, an attorney who represents Omar Abdulaziz, a Saudi dissident living in Canada.

    Kleiman told Middle East Eye that he and Ben Gharagozli, a second lawyer representing Abdulaziz, understood that “somebody from one of the three-letter agencies in the US” tipped Twitter off about Azabarah, before company put him on administrative leave in early December 2015.

    Abdulaziz and his attorney are furious, given it was literally life and death on the line, as was proven with Khashoggi’s heinous murder by Saudi state assassins, which possibly was even planned with information gleaned from Twitter or other messaging platforms. 

    Kleiman underscored that “It’s hard to imagine that [Dorsey] wouldn’t have heard about it six months later.

    * * *

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Middle East Eye notes in its report that it sent Twitter a list of the following questions, though it initially received no response:

    • When and how Twitter became aware of Alzabarah’s activities
    • Whether Twitter believed its accounts had been targeted by a state-sponsored actor in December 2015
    • Whether Twitter was aware in December 2015 that Alzabarah had been feeding user data to Bader al-Asaker, who had close ties to the Saudi ruling family
    • Whether Dorsey had been made aware of Alzabarah’s activities and the fact that he had been involved in state-sponsored activity and, if so, whether he knew about these actions when he met with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2016
    • Whether Dorsey raised any concerns over the incident with Mohammed bin Salman or Asaker during the June 2016 meeting


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 17:00

  • Former Central Banker: "As A Young Man I Would Have Never Imagined This Would Be Our Destination"
    Former Central Banker: “As A Young Man I Would Have Never Imagined This Would Be Our Destination”

    Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    “Hmmm,” said the former central banker, leaning back in a chair. I’d asked how his thinking on the meaning of money had changed over these last three decades. We both started this journey in 1989, and our paths somehow led us to this long table in Tokyo. In that time, much changed. Back then, Japan’s gov’t debt-to-GDP was roughly 50%, 10yr JGB yields were 5%, the dollar was worth 127 Yen. But now, debt/GDP is roughly 250%, the central bank has printed enough money to buy half of it, 10yr yields are -0.07%, the Yen has strengthened to 109.

    “You are correct, as a young man I would have never imagined this would be our destination,” he said, after some consideration. “And I am trying to think about how my views changed over so many years, because I cannot recall a moment when I realized everything was not as I had previously understood,” he said. “Perhaps, over such a long span of time our thinking gradually evolves, and we’re not aware that it has.” I nodded, quietly considering my long wander. “But here we are, and while I do not understand it perfectly, it makes some sense.”

    Fishy

    We were discussing equity markets over sushi. America’s has had an extraordinary run. In the 30yrs from Japan’s 1989 Nikkei high, the S&P 500 gained 925%, and from the 2009 GFC crisis lows the S&P 500 gained 464%. The Nasdaq gained 1,948% since 1989 (+655% from 2009 low). They say the reason for this recent extraordinary march is the Fed’s QE and a policy of low rates that has combined to push America’s CEOs to buy back stock, while forcing global investors to pay any price for growth in an ageing economy, where growth is scarce.

    “I suppose that explanation for America’s bull run makes sense in isolation,” said the CIO in Tokyo. But Japanese rates are -0.10%. The BOJ printed enough money to make an Italian central banker blush and continues buying stocks directly on the open market. Japan is the ultimate ageing economy, with slow growth, world-class technologists, researchers, and plenty of entrepreneurs.  “Investors have come to accept that overall explanation without reservation. Yet, if it is true, how can it also be true that the Nikkei remains 40% below its 1989 high?”
     
    Hump Day

    The Japanese work culture is notorious for its long hours. Microsoft Japan conducted an experiment in August with 2,300 workers. It paid them to not work on Fridays. It encouraged online chats in place of meetings or emails. It insisted meetings include five people or fewer and last no longer than 30mins. Microsoft saw a 40% increase in sales/worker, a 59% decline in paper usage, and a 23% drop in electricity consumption. Asked what day employees would like off if the firm moves to a 4-day workweek, 50% answered Wednesday.

    Minnows

    The dynamism in Japan’s economy is not to be found in the conglomerates,” said the CIO, focused on small cap stocks. “To find the interesting companies, you must look at the small and mid-sized firms that supply the large players – they’re the ones where you find the creativity, the risk takers, innovators.” Japan spends 3.5% of GDP on Research & Development, the US spends 2.8% and China 2.0%. Only South Korea spends a larger percentage of its GDP on R&D (4.3%). “The very big firms here have grown to resemble state owned enterprises.”

    Anecote

    “We move slowly here,” said the executive, chain smoking Seven Stars. “We have refined the art of flawless production,” he explained. “But there was a time when it was not so.” Two Asahi Extra Dry’s arrived, the thick foam head in each glass identical, poured deliberately, in perfect proportion, beautiful beer. “We once copied the chemical compounds designed in America,” he admitted. “As we amassed knowledge, we developed our own, and accumulated manufacturing know-how, capital.” In the distance, Japan’s factories spewed smoke, but at a pace that made the past appear more frantic than the present. “We produced chemicals and materials for the world to incorporate into nearly every product, and in pursuit of perfection, we introduced quality controls. Then controls on controls. And controls on controls on controls, ensuring that our final output was flawless.” The executive smiled, drawing deeply, his wrinkled face aglow. “But this pursuit of perfection slowed our ability to develop new compounds. And now the Chinese outpace us. They copy our formulas as we once copied yours. They produce at a pace that ensures higher impurities, but greater throughput, wider margins. And without having to bear the costs of R&D investment, they slash prices savagely.” The executive lit another Seven Star, turned his head slowly, exhaled. “The Chinese test their compounds with scant regard to safety. Then iterate again and again. Racing to produce compounds that may not be great but are perhaps good enough. They scale production overnight. They do what they must to capture market share,” he said, growing quiet, contemplative. I matched his silence, waiting for him to fill the void. Across the world’s third largest economy, the mighty conglomerates lumbered onward, industrial inertia. “And while we know this, and see this all unfolding, we appear unwilling to respond, unable to change course, accelerate.”

     


    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 11/10/2019 – 16:30

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 10th November 2019

  • Escobar: America's 'Blue Dot' Barely Visible From New Silk Roads
    Escobar: America’s ‘Blue Dot’ Barely Visible From New Silk Roads

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Saker blog,

    The US-Australia-Japan alternative to Belt and Road helps explain why the US sent a junior delegation to Thailand and why India opted out of RCEP…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    China’s President Xi Jinping waves during the opening ceremony of the China International Import Expo in Shanghai on November 5. Photo: AFP/Hector Retamal

    Chinese President Xi Jinping six years ago launched New Silk Roads, now better known as the Belt and Road Initiative, the largest, most ambitious, pan-Eurasian infrastructure project of the 21st century.

    Under the Trump administration, Belt and Road has been utterly demonized 24/7: a toxic cocktail of fear and doubt, with Beijing blamed for everything from plunging poor nations into a “debt trap” to evil designs of world domination.

    Now finally comes what might be described as the institutional American response to Belt and Road: the Blue Dot Network.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Blue Dot is described, officially, as promoting global, multi-stakeholder “sustainable infrastructure development in the Indo-Pacific region and around the world.”

    It is a joint project of the US Overseas Private Investment Corporation, in partnership with Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation.

    “The development of critical infrastructure—when it is led by the private sector and supported on terms that are transparent, sustainable, and socially and environmentally responsible—is foundational to widespread economic empowerment,” said Bohigian. “Through Blue Dot Network, the United States is proud to join key partners to fully unlock the power of quality infrastructure to foster unprecedented opportunity, progress, and stability.”

    “This endorsement of Blue Dot Network not only creates a solid foundation for infrastructure global trust standards but reinforces the need for the establishment of umbrella global trust standards in other sectors, including digital, mining, financial services, and research,” said Krach. “Such global trust standards, which are based on respect for transparency and accountability, sovereignty of property and resources, local labor and human rights, rule of law, the environment, and sound governance practices in procurement and financing, have been driven not just by private sector companies and civil society but also by governments around the world.”

    “Australia is committed to promoting high-quality infrastructure, inclusive approaches, and facilitating private sector investment in the Indo-Pacific region,” said Maude. “I’m pleased that this commitment is shared by East Asia Summit Leaders, and we look forward to working closely with our regional partners to develop Blue Dot Network to take action on this commitment.”

    “Blue Dot Network is an initiative that leads to the promotion of quality infrastructure investment committed by G20 countries,” said Maeda. “As JBIC has a long history of infrastructure finance all over the world, JBIC is pleased to share such experience and contribute to further development of Blue Dot Network.”

    Now compare it with what just happened this same week at the inauguration of the China International Import Expo in Shanghai.

    As Xi stressed:

    “To date, China has signed 197 documents on Belt and Road cooperation with 137 countries and 30 international organizations.”

    This is what Blue Dot is up against – especially across the Global South. Well, not really. Global South diplomats, informally contacted, are not exactly impressed. They might see Blue Dot as an aspiring competitor to BRI, but one that’s moved by private finance – mostly, in theory, American.

    They scoff at the prospect that Blue Dot will include some sort of ratings mechanism that will be positioned to vet and downgrade Belt and Road projects. Washington will spin it as a “certification” process setting “international standards” – implying Belt and Road is sub-standard. Whether Global South nations will pay attention to these new ratings is an open question.

    The Japanese example

    Blue Dot should also be understood in direct comparison with what just happened at the summit-fest in Thailand centered on the meetings of East Asia, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

    The advent of Blue Dot explains why the US sent only a junior delegation to Thailand, and also, to a great extent, why India missed the RCEP train as it left the pan-Asian station.

    Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is still between a rock – Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy – and a hard place – Eurasia integration. They are mutually incompatible.

    Blue Dot is a de facto business extension of Indo-Pacific, which congregates the US, Japan, Australia – and India: the Quad members. It’s a mirror image of the – defunct – Obama administration Trans-Pacific Partnership in relation to the – also defunct – “pivot to Asia.”

    It’s unclear whether New Delhi will join Blue Dot. It has rejected Belt and Road, but not, finally and irrevocably, RCEP. ASEAN has tried to put on a brave face and insist differences will be smoothed out and all 16 RCEP members will sign a deal in Vietnam in 2020.

    Yet the bottom line remains: Washington will continue to manipulate India by all means deemed necessary to torpedo – at least in the South Asian theater – the potential of Belt and Road as well as larger Eurasia integration.

    And still, after all these years of non-stop demonization, the best thing Washington could come up with was to steal Belt and Road’s idea and dress it up in private bank financing.

    Now compare it, for instance, with the work of the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia. They privilege the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, an original Indonesian idea, instead of the American version. The institute’s president, Hidetoshi Nishimura, describes it as “a guideline for dialogue partners” and stresses that “Japan’s own vision of the Indo-Pacific fits very well with that of ASEAN.”

    As much as Nishimura notes how “it is well known that Japan has been the key donor and a real partner in the economic development of Southeast Asia throughout the past five decades,” he also extols RCEP as “the symbol of free trade.” Both China and Japan are firmly behind RCEP. And Beijing is also firmly stressing the direct connection between RCEP and Belt and Road projects.

    In the end, Blue Dot may be no more than a PR exercise, too little, too late. It won’t stop Belt and Road expansion. It won’t prevent China-Japan investment partnerships. It won’t stop awareness all across the Global South about the weaponization of the US dollar for geopolitical purposes.

    And it won’t bury prevailing skepticism about the development project skills of a hyperpower engaged on a mission to steal other nation’s oil reserves as part of an illegal Syrian occupation.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 23:30

  • A Visual Timeline Of AI Predictions In Sci-Fi
    A Visual Timeline Of AI Predictions In Sci-Fi

    They say you shouldn’t believe everything you see on the big screen.

    However, as Visual Capitalist’s Iman Ghosh explains below, in the case of science fiction, the human imagination has gotten a few things right – especially when it comes to futuristic forecasts. Today, the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is transforming everything, but it turns out we had a hunch about it all along.

    When AI Comes to Life

    Today’s infographic from Noodle.ai takes a look at how some movie and television predictions for AI’s capabilities have taken hold in the real world.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Many early “predictions” about future technologies certainly missed the mark—but it seems science fiction was able to accurately forecast a thing or two about AI.

    AI Basics: Making Life Better

    Artificial intelligence is all about equipping machines with the ability to mimic human decision-making processes. It has a wide range of applications, from basic automation to advanced machine learning models.

    AI has proliferated into virtually every aspect of life, and in the graphic, it’s clear that several sci-fi-turned-real inventions are aimed at making things more convenient for us humans.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Of course, these have had varying degrees of success. While Google Glass didn’t initially resonate with the wider public, the augmented reality smart glasses have now proved useful in businesses such as manufacturing.

    Elsewhere, sci-fi-inspired advances in industries like healthtech are providing a new lease of life for many patients—and continuously reinventing the frontier of what we think is possible.

    Sci-Fi Helps Us Push Boundaries

    One monumental event in AI history occurred in 1997, when IBM’s Deep Blue beat a chess master at his own game. This event shook the world when we realized what AI could truly be capable of—even though sci-fi had in fact anticipated it 20 years prior.

    But as the graphic shows, not all is rosy in science fiction’s likeness of AI. It’s often depicted as something to fear, and certain predictions have proved to be eerily accurate.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    While not all of these are causes for alarm, they clearly demonstrate that sci-fi has the capacity to influence the breakthrough technology we could end up seeing a few years down the line. However, turning reel to real can raise some curious dilemmas.

    Rights for Robots?

    Last year, the European Parliament debated an interesting question: do robots qualify as people?

    The resolution considered granting “personhood” to sophisticated, autonomous robots. However, over 150 AI experts strongly warned against this proposal, arguing it would “blur the relation between man and machine” in a way that is too unethical.

    Nevertheless, this thought experiment proves that artificial intelligence is matching our wildest imagined predictions for it.

    AI is whatever hasn’t been done yet.

    – Tesler’s Theorem

    As we move ever closer towards a world where AI is inextricably linked with the everyday, how else could science fiction shape our expectations of the future?


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 23:00

  • J.P.Koning: The Gamification Of Bitcoin
    J.P.Koning: The Gamification Of Bitcoin

    Authored by J.P.Koning via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    Eleven years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto announced the bitcoin whitepaper to the world. Coinbase, a large cryptocurrency exchange, recently celebrated this milestone with a retrospective.

    I’m going to remix Coinbase’s narrative to tell a different account of bitcoin’s last 11-years.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The thing that fooled us all for a while, myself included, is that we all thought bitcoin was solving a monetary or payments problem. It was labelled a coin, after all, and coins fall within the realm of monetary economics. To further complicate matters, Satoshi told his story using phrases like “electronic cash system” and “non-reversible transactions”. Perhaps we deserve to be forgiven for not seeing bitcoin’s underlying nature. After all, tearing down the existing monetary system and building a new one was a fresh and exciting narrative.

    Anyways, Coinbase still believes this old tale.

    “As with other technologies, money has gone through many upgrades over the years,” its marketing team writes.

    “Bitcoin is the latest breakthrough in a technology that’s millennia old.”

    What is now apparent is that bitcoin was never a monetary phenomenon. No, bitcoin is a new sort of financial betting game. It is a digital, global, highly-secure, and fairer version of the old-fashioned chain letter.

    The premise behind bitcoin-the-game is that the current wave of buyers must guess when (or if) a subsequent wave of buyers will emerge, this second next wave’s participation being contingent on when (or if) they believe a third wave of buyers to emerge. If they guess right, the early birds win at the expense of the late ones. And they can win a lot of money, as Coinbase points out in its post:

    Think of bitcoin as a pure mind game, a Keynesian beauty contest in which we “devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.” Those old fashioned chain letters that you (or your parents) used to get in the mail were an early type of beauty contest. The price that Alice was willing to place on a chain letter was a function of whether she expected the next recipient, Bill, to play by the rules and send it on, Bill’s expectation in turn depending on the odds that Jack would join the game.

    But chain letters had a major flaw. The chain order could be easily compromised by a fraudster who miscopied the list and put their name at the front. Bitcoin fixes this by introducing robustness to chain letter-type games. Bitcoin’s blockchain is an unbreakable public record of where in line game players stand. Altering this chain order would require tremendous amounts of computer power, as Coinbase illustrates in this chart:

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Bitcoin-the-game has been spectacularly successful. As Coinbase points out, it “went from an idea in 2008, and a first transaction in 2009, to over 27 million users in the US alone in 2019, or 9% of Americans.” Below, Coinbase has charted the number of active bitcoin addresses that have been created over the years:

    Why did bitcoin-the-game succeed?

    First, it’s a fun and cutting-edge game. Many people dream of thrusting themselves out of financial obscurity into millionaire land. Bitcoin is a technologically-sophisticated way to get there. No one wants to play grandpa’s lottery.

    Secondly, the way that bitcoin is designed helps it spread. Most of the legacy financial games that bitcoin competes with (poker, lotteries, sports betting) are regulated by the government. Strict rules prevent game providers from reaching a wide audience. For instance, online casinos may be prevented from serving out-of-state players, problem gamblers may be banned, and those who are under 18 must be excluded. These financial games are usually centralized. This means they are hosted on a single website, or at a physical location like a casino, or by a government-run lottery corporation. Which makes it easy for regulators to shut down game providers who break the rules.

    But bitcoin is different. Because it is a decentralized and digital financial game, it can’t be regulated or shut down. And so it can serve the entire globe with impunity. Which it has done by spreading into every crack and cranny on earth. As is illustrated by another of Coinbase’s charts:

    Based entirely on whisps and storms of psychology, the price of bitcoin is inherently volatile. Its core volatility has stayed pretty much constant over the last 11-years. Users should expect the same for the next 11 years. Even if more people join a Keynesian beauty contest, the average opinion of the average opinion will always be a fickle, inconsistent thing, and so price will always be jittery.

    So what about bitcoin-as-money? Yes, people do use bitcoin for payments. But this gets dwarfed by its popularity as a financial game. The problem is this. Bitcoin payment functionality is implemented on top of a highly volatile chassis, a fun but fickle beauty contest. Which hobbles the effectiveness of the payments platform. Regular folks won’t use the stuff to pay. They don’t want the value of their spending stash to fall by 20% overnight. And game players don’t want to waste their tokens on buying goods & services. That could mean potentially missing out on a life changing jackpot. That’s why the promise of mainstream bitcoin payments has died a thousand deaths over the last 11 years.

    That being said, the demand for bitcoin in economically volatile regions such as Venezuela has hit record highs. Coinbase suggests that thanks to inflation and capital controls, bitcoin is finally being used as the electronic cash for which it was originally designed.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Coinbase could be right. In places like the U.S. with functioning monetary systems, bitcoin is just too awkward to serve as a payments alternative. But in places where monetary breakdowns have occurred, regular folks may be more willing to put up with the inherent pitfalls of transacting with bitcoin. And so we finally get to see bitcoin-as-money emerging.That’s a good thing.

    But bitcoin’s popularity in Venezuela is also consistent with the bitcoin-as-game narrative. When people are desperate to improve their lives, they may have little other option but to roll the dice. In Run Lola Run, Lola needs to quickly make 100,000 Deutschmarks to save her boyfriend’s life. She races to a casino and plays roulette. Likewise, in the face of societal collapse,  Venezuelans may simply be gambling on whatever potentially life-changing bet they can find. Bitcoin is one such a bet. Unwinding what portion of Venezuelan usage is due to bitcoin-as-game versus bitcoin-as-money is tricky.

    Coinbase goes on to spout the typical cryptocurrency industry nonsense about legacy payments. It claims that “sending an international wire transfer by major US banks costs around $45, can take days to process, and can be done only during banking hours.” And here is the chart it uses:

    That may be a good critique from ten years ago. But with SWIFT gpi having rolled out a few years back, multinationals can make near real-time cross border payments using the traditional correspondent banking system. For individuals and small businesses, fintech Transferwise offers instant remittances over fiat rails. These can settle on weekends in nations like the UK, which have real-time retail payments systems. I’ve touched on this before.

    Continuing along with hyperbole, Coinbase makes the claim that bitcoin remittance fees are minimal compared to fiat. But this ignores the sizable foreign exchange fees that one must pay when converting fiat into bitcoin and back into fiat. I’ve gone into this calculus before.

    What’s next for Bitcoin? asks Coinbase in closing. Let me give it a shot. It’s possible that bitcoin-as-game will stay popular for a very long time. And if it does, that could be a good thing. As I’ve suggested before, there is a demand as-such for financial games and bets, specifically early-bird bets. Compared to many of the fly-by-night games out there, bitcoin provides a fair and trustworthy option.

    What about the original vision that got us all so excited, bitcoin-as-money? Crippled by bitcoin’s game-based engine, bitcoin payments are probably never going to move beyond the niche role that they currently occupy. That’s better than nothing. When those on the fringes are temporarily cut off from the conventional payments system, they’ll always have an option for making transactions. It might not be a user-friendly option, but at least it’s there.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 22:30

  • 53 Million Americans Drowning In Cycle Of Low-Wage Work 
    53 Million Americans Drowning In Cycle Of Low-Wage Work 

    It’s the “Greatest Economy Ever,” right? Well, it depends on who you ask.

    For instance, a new report sheds light on 53 million Americans, or about 44% of all US workers, aged 18 to 64, are considered low-wage and low-skilled. 

    Many of these folks are stuck in the gig economy, making approximately $10.22 per hour, and they bring home less than $20,000 per year, according to a Brookings Institution report.

    An overwhelmingly large percentage of these folks have insurmountable debts if that are student loans, auto loans, and or credit card debt. Their wages don’t cover their debt servicing payments as their lives will be left in financial ruin after the next recession. 

    While the top 10% of Americans are partying like it’s 1999, most of whom own assets, like stocks, bonds, and real estate, are greatly prospering off the Federal Reserve’s serial asset bubble-blowing scheme and President Trump’s stock market pumping on Twitter.

    Today’s artificial economy isn’t working for everyone as the wealth inequality gap swells to crisis levels. 

    The US is at the 11th hour, one hour till midnight, as the wealth inequality imbalance will correct itself by the eruption of protests on the streets of major metro areas, sort of like what’s been happening across the world in Chile, Hong Kong, Lebanon, and Barcelona. 

    An uprising, a revolution, people are waking up to the fact that unelected officials and governments have ruined the economy and has resulted in their financial misery of low wages and insurmountable debts. 

    The report shows almost half of all low-wage workers are clustered in ten occupations, such as a retail salesperson, cooks and food preparation, building cleaners, and construction workers (these are some of the jobs that will get wiped out during the next recession). 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Shown below, most of these low-wage workers are centered in areas around the North East, Mid-Atlantic, and Rust Belt. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    As we’ve detailed in past articles, millions of these low-wage and low-skilled jobs will never be replaced after the next recession, that’s due in part to mega corporations swapping out these jobs with automation and artificial intelligence. 

    The solution by the government and the Federal Reserve, to avoid riots in the streets, will be the implementation of various forms of quantitative easing for the people. 

    There’s a reason why you already hear the debate of universal income, central banks starting to finance green investments, and other various forms of short/long term stimulus, that is because the global economy is grinding to a halt — and the only solution at the moment is to do more of the same. 


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 22:00

  • David Stockman On How The Deep State Really Works
    David Stockman On How The Deep State Really Works

    Via InternationalMan.com,

    International Man: Last year, President Trump took the unusual step of bypassing his advisors to announce his intention to withdraw all US troops from Syria quickly. The decision rattled Washington and the mainstream media. It caused former Defense Secretary Mattis to resign. Almost a year later, the US has withdrawn only a token number of soldiers. It still has thousands of troops occupying the part of the country where oil fields are located. What is going on here?

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    David Stockman: Well, that’s the Deep State at work.

    Donald Trump is all by his lonesome. He’s home alone in the Oval Office. Now, half of it, he can blame himself. If he hires someone, a known idiot like John Bolton, what does he expect is going to happen except that everything he wanted to do is going to be undermined.

    Nevertheless, he can’t seem to find anybody who can articulate on a day-to-day basis a pathway to the more restrained America First posture that he had in mind.

    He’s surrounded by people who constantly countermand his orders. You have James Jeffery, the US Ambassador and special envoy to Syria saying, “Well, Trump didn’t mean that when he said he wanted the troops out of Syria.”

    We have the same thing with North Korea. Trump finally said, here we are, 66 years after the armistice and we still don’t have a peace treaty, and we’re still occupying the Korean peninsula, which is of no interest to our national security one way or the other.

    You have to do what I would call “contrafactual history.” In other words, if you understand what could have happened the other way, then maybe you’re not going to be so impressed with all this threat inflation.

    I go back to why the Korean War happened, because I think it’s important to this whole thing going on now, with Trump trying to make a deal with Kim Jong-un.

    In the late ’40s, Washington officials said that Korea is outside our sphere of influence, the line between North and South hastily drawn at the Potsdam war conference in July 1945. Dean Acheson, the US secretary of state in the late 1940s, said it was a mere surveyor’s line; it’s of no strategic influence. What if common sense had prevailed, instead of the hot-headed advice that President Truman got?

    What if Truman had said, “Okay, we’re vacating this damn peninsula”? Well, it would have become a quasi-province of China, just like all the rest of them.

    They’d probably be making all kinds of stuff, sending it to Walmart today, and nobody would know the difference.

    Instead, we had a war. If I remember right, 54,000 servicemen were killed. The whole peninsula was pummeled, carpet bombed, and literally destroyed. It was like a wasteland in the north. There are reasons why the Kim family has survived all these years, because they hate us for what happened. People remember. It was really scorched earth. I mean, it was in some sense genocide, even then.

    So, all of that happened, and Eisenhower comes in and is astute enough to say that we don’t really have national security on the line. He negotiated an armistice, and yet the War Party kept tension on the DMZ for all those years because it had to be in the playbook of threats.

    I remember well when I was fighting the big Reagan defense build-up, back when I was budget director. It was always, we need all these different new tanks and attack aircraft and resupply logistics capabilities, because we have to have the ability to fight two and a half wars.

    Well, where was the half war? I knew where the other ones were. The half war was in Korea. Well, why did we have to have a half war in Korea? But nevertheless, that was part of the rationalization—justification—for this massive military force that really is a tool of empire and not a tool of homeland defense.

    Today, we have Trump finally saying, let’s let the Koreans decide how to run the future of Korea—and back off this long-running, 65-year confrontation.

    And yet as courageous in some ways as he has been, he’s constantly being undermined by his own people, who as soon as he’s not looking send real nasty messages to the North Koreans—that will only set Kim back on his heels—and therefore nothing gets done. Even though it could very easily be done.

    When you have a regime change policy—and this was the one real positive thing Trump brought to the table. He said regime change has failed; we’re not going to do it under my policy.

    Why do you think the North Koreans are quasi-starving? And I know the Communist elite and Kim’s family and so forth live a pretty fat life, but nevertheless they’re in dire straits economically.

    Why do they invest all this money in developing nuclear capability and missile capability? Because they don’t want to be regime changed. Kim is a young man, he’s in his mid-30s, and he doesn’t want to be another Muammar Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein.

    He knows what happens. You get hung on national TV if you’re a Hussein, or you get tortured and drugged behind a Jeep if you’re a Gaddafi.

    Obviously, this stuff has consequences. These idiots in Washington and all these think tanks that talk about regime change and bringing democracy to the world and so forth—never even think about the consequence—the message that these violent episodes send—and the unfortunate reaction that people take in order to defend themselves.

    International Man: With John Bolton out of the picture, do you see US talks with North Korea bearing fruit for Trump?

    David Stockman: I think it’s touch and go.

    The problem is there’s lasting damage when you engage in all this regime change over so many years and episodes. They don’t trust you.

    Trump has worked very hard, using an odd, idiosyncratic personal diplomacy to build up trust with Kim. It seems to be working, but there are just so many forces at work behind the scenes that are aiming to undermine that trust-building so that nothing happens.

    They want to keep 29,000 troops in South Korea, in harm’s way, as a tripwire, so that the North Koreans obey us as we tell them to behave. It’s crazy.

    I would give it a 50/50 chance. I know he wants a big victory, a foreign policy win. He’s desperate for one, because not much is happening elsewhere and what he intended to do is being totally undermined.

    Maybe there’s a chance that something could happen here, but I am so distrusting of the Deep State machinery and their need for perennial threats.

    If you take away the Korean threat, if you recognize the Iranians aren’t a threat, if you see that Russia is a tiny little country that’s not going to invade Western Europe and crash through the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, and so forth—

    All of a sudden somebody is going to do the math as we get into the coming fiscal crisis and say, “We can’t afford all this defense that we don’t need. Let’s cut it back dramatically.”

    They don’t want this to happen. And so, they have to keep these hot spots burning and these threats maintained or inflated, because they know if the real truth of the world were considered by Congress, the defense budget would be slashed dramatically.

    International Man: So far, President Trump has had a very different foreign policy than Candidate Trump. What will happen to Trump’s chances for re-election if he doesn’t make any progress on ending the war in Afghanistan, withdrawing from Syria, and bringing peace to Korea?

    David Stockman: I think his re-election is binary.

    If the stock market holds up and the economy manages to skirt recession, he’ll be in good shape. But I don’t think that’s going to happen.

    I think the stock market is in its last days of bubble excess. I think the economy is slouching toward recession within a matter of a few quarters or months. If that happens, Trump is toast. Elizabeth Warren becomes president, and then that’ll be a whole new ball game that is hard to figure.

    International Man: What kind of role do you see foreign policy playing in the 2020 election?

    David Stockman: It won’t be the normal sense of debating policy—where there’s usually the bipartisan duopoly, with nuanced shades of difference that they like to debate and pretend are meaningful.

    That isn’t even going to happen this time. Foreign policy has been totally taken over by the Democratic paranoia about Russia and Putin and meddling in our elections.

    Now it’s extended to the whole impeachment inquiry and Ukraine-gate. That’s what the whole debate is going to be about. The debate is going to be about a sideshow.

    The underlying issues are why we are constantly steaming warships into the Black Sea. That’s like the Gulf of Mexico to Russia.

    Why are we sending warships into the Baltic?

    Why are we constantly doing big maneuvers in Poland and in the Baltic states, right on Russia’s doorsteps with these tens of thousands of forces going through these maneuvers and exercises? What the hell are we doing all this for?

    Those are the issues. But they’re not even going to get debated.

    One last point: Trump had raised the question, isn’t NATO obsolete? The Soviet Union is gone. The 50,000 tanks allegedly on the central front facing western Europe have been melted down for scrap. And yet, he can’t even do anything about NATO.

    He’s had to double-talk his way into saying, “Well, the other countries are going to commit some more money they don’t have. They’re going to waste more money on defense.” That’s all that’s come of it.

    The point is we ought to be debating what the hell are we doing with NATO 25 years after the Soviet Union disappeared from the face of the earth?

    Why isn’t Washington and the president leading the world with this disarmament conference so that we can begin to reduce this massive expenditure for weapons that nobody can afford?

    This is what Washington should be doing. The president of the United States should be leading the great global disarmament conference of 2021, and yet that won’t even come up. It’s not even on the radar screen.

    It’s not even mentioned because, as I say, the Warfare State machinery essentially squelches any kind of debate, suffocates any kind of thought that at all deviates from the status quo.

    The big issue in the world today is war and peace, and we’re facing a campaign in 2020 where it won’t even be mentioned.

    *  *  *

    Unfortunately most people have no idea what really happens when a government goes out of control, let alone how to prepare… The coming economic and political crisis is going to be much worse, much longer, and very different than what we’ve seen in the past. That’s precisely why bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent new report with all the details. Click here to download the PDF now.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 21:30

    Tags

  • California Approves $3.2 Billion Bond For High Speed Train To Nowhere
    California Approves $3.2 Billion Bond For High Speed Train To Nowhere

    The high speed train is dead, long live the high speed train.

    Less than a year after California Gov. Gavin Newsom brought California’s dreams for a LA to San Fran bullet train crashing down, when he said in February that he is ending the state’s hugely expensive and hopelessly quixotic high-speed rail line fiasco (which would have been completed in 2033 at a staggering cost of $77 billion), California is about to unleash another high speed train project, and this one is even more idiotic.

    The California Infrastructure and Economic Development Bank (IBank) has authorized a $3.2 billion tax-exempt, fixed-rate revenue bond issuance to help DesertXpress Enterprises, an affiliate of Virgin Trains USA, build a high-speed train from Victorville, California, to Las Vegas. The new XpressWest service, at speeds of up to 180 miles per hour, will take about 90 minutes one way. 

    There is just one problem: Victorville, located in SoCal’s high desert, is quite literally in the middle of nowhere.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    More on that in a second.

    DesertXpress will be able to use the money to pay for the 135 miles of the project located within the state of California. This, according to ConstructionDrive, includes the costs of design, development, construction, operation and maintenance of the rail system itself; a passenger station; a maintenance facility; train cars; and electrification infrastructure. DesertXpress will also be able to use the bonds, which are sponsored by the California county of San Bernardino, to establish a debt service reserve fund, as well as pay for interest and other bond-related expenses. While total spending is listed at around $4.8 billion, “hard construction costs” are $3.6 billion.

    Construction, which is expected to begin in the second half of 2020 and wrap up in 2023, according to an IBank staff report, will generate more than 15,800 temporary construction jobs.

    That’s the good news. The bad news is… what the hell are they thinking?

    In theory, it’s not a terrible idea: California has for decades sought to find a fast path between Los Angleles and Las Vegas. In practice, the fact that the train runs to Victorville assures that the project is DOA.

    The XpressWest between California and Las Vegas, according to the IBank staff report, will take about half the time of a car trip, but Randal O’Toole, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, thinks that there simply won’t be enough potential passengers — at least enough to make the new bullet train a success.

    “If you’re driving from Los Angeles to Victorville, by the time you get there, you’re pretty much halfway to Vegas,” O’Toole said, “so why would you stop and leave your car somewhere and take a train and then have to walk to wherever your destination is — or take a cab or an Uber or Lyft — when you can just drive your car there?”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    That’s probably a question the creators of the project should have asked first.

    Here’s the problem: the distance between Los Angeles and Victorville is about 90 miles and about 190 miles from Victorville to Las Vegas.

    “Driving from Los Angeles to Victorville,” O’Toole said, “you’re driving through all the traffic — you’re driving over the mountains … and you get to Victorville and it’s just a straight shot to Las Vegas. It’s more miles, but there’s very little traffic.

    “If they were going to go from Los Angeles to Las Vegas, they might have a chance of attracting some customers, but going through the mountain would be extremely expensive,” he said. “They’re building the easy part of the rail line but not the part that they need to build to actually attract customers.”

    Virgin Trains USA is a majority owner of Virgin Trains USA Florida, formerly known as Brightline, and currently owns and operates an express rail passenger rail system that runs from Miami to West Palm Beach. The company is building a $4 billion extension to Orlando International Airport. The estimated completion date is sometime in 2022.

    And while the company’s projects may be viable in Florida, they will be another epic waste of funds in California.

    Meanwhile, when we said that the first high speed train is dead, well that wasn’t quite right: the construction of the original California bullet train is still chugging along, albeit on a reduced scale. While Governor Gavin Newsom shelved the California High-Speed Rail Authority’s plans for a $77 billion rail line between San Francisco and Los Angeles after amid concerns over escalating costs and schedule delays, the governor limited work to the $20 billion Central Valley portion of the project that will take passengers between Bakersfield and Merced.

    In other words, another high speed train going from nowhere to nowhere.

    So why does California continue to press along with not one but two train projects it knows will be a disaster? The answer is simple: “free” Federal money. The High-Speed Rail authority is trying to beat a Dec. 31, 2022 deadline in order to not lose a $929 million Federal Railroad Administration grant for that particular segment.

    In other words, instead of saving almost a billion dollars in taxpayer funds, and applying them to something useful, California is willing to begin a project which everyone knows will be a catastrophic waste of funds, but since the money has to be spent, even if it means digging holes just to fill them up again… well, so be it. After all, this is the government hard at work.

     


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 21:01

  • CA Wildfires Make Homeless Crisis Even Worse
    CA Wildfires Make Homeless Crisis Even Worse

    Authored by Jenny Jayne via The Organic Prepper blog,

    Homelessness in California has already reached a state of crisis, but with the winter approaching and the homeless population growing, the problem continues to worsen. A lack of affordable housing coupled with the national opioid crisis has resulted in a growing homeless population that lives on the streets of California.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    California homeless populations live in squalor in makeshift homes made of tarps, tents, and discarded scrap wood. Sanitation for that many people living outside is virtually non-existent and feces and urine are left in the open next to filthy bedding.

    Filth in the streets, particularly “Skid Row”, has lead to the comeback of “Medieval Diseases” once thought to be eradicated.

    The housing situation in California shows no signs of improving.

    As Californians continue to witness the desolation camped right outside their front doors, their patience grows thin and their tolerance dissipates.

    The New York Times reports:

    California may pride itself on its commitment to tolerance and liberal values, but across the state, record levels of homelessness have spurred a backlash against those who live on the streets. (source)

    The homeless arrive on the streets of California for various reasons, but lack of housing is the resounding cry. Affordable housing is scarce and lower-income citizens are forced out as rents continue to rise. But another huge factor has resulted in new homeless that have overrun the already overwhelmed resources: wildfire evacuees. As a result, more recent homeless are clashing with the older homeless population. Many of the State’s “new” homeless have nowhere to go after their houses went up in flames. The two camps may have come to homelessness in different ways, but their needs are the same. And these two camps of homeless are fighting for dwindling resources.

    The wildfires are contributing to the housing problem.

    Wildfire destruction is making the lack of affordable housing into a bigger and more urgent problem. Wildfires are wreaking havoc on the already limited housing, forcing families displaced by fires onto long waiting lists for even temporary shelter. Even if families had the resources to move into permanent housing, there’s little left available. The fires are torching what little housing there is left and making already insanely priced housing even harder to come by. Compounding the problem is the lack of affordable home owner’s insurance. Even longtime homeowners are being forced out due to insurance companies dropping property coverage in “high risk” areas and tripling rates. This is displacing even more Californians.

    Wildfires continue to rage and take housing with them. The already out-of-control California fire situation is only getting worse. It’s so bad that California is issuing a “severe red flag” warning for the risk of wildfire with some areas getting hurricane-force winds. These winds only increase the chances of fires starting and spreading faster.

    And the homeless, an already fragile population with few resources, are growing exponentially in conjunction with the devastation of housing in wildfire areas. Displaced from their homes and housing already at a crisis point, the evacuees from wildfires have nowhere to go and few places to turn to for help. They have resorted to living in tents in open fields or Walmart parking lots as they wait on interminably long lists for available and affordable housing. Many, including a disproportionate number of elderly citizens, are simply turned away and left on their own.

    The Governor of California has offered a solution: rent control. This has been met with backlash from their citizens who have opposed this. Even where rent control has already been instituted, the homeless population has continued to grow, lending credibility to the opinion that the only real solution is construction, which is hampered by price controls, wildfire, and the exodus of home and property insurers.

    Fox News reports:

    Rent control has been a proven failure in addressing housing problems. It prompts landlords to convert their properties into owner-occupied homes, and deters investment in the housing market, aggravating the shortages that caused them in the first place. (source)

    The situation is dire for people who cannot find housing.

    While fires continue to ravage homes and cause billions in damage, the homeless population continues to grow and winter is coming. Surprisingly, the state with the most homeless deaths due to hypothermia is The Sunshine State.

    What does that mean for those who cannot find shelter? The homeless, including those who are refugees from the devastation caused by wildfires, will still be on the streets when the temperatures drop. Compassion from their fellow Californians has worn thin. There are fewer options for warm shelter and more people fighting for those few resources provided.

    Little has been done to address the fast-approaching problem of “where will they go?” when it gets too cold to be outside. We can only hope that they will find shelter before more tragedy strikes.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 20:30

  • D.C. Braces For Erdogan Visit Next Week: Here's What Happened Last Time
    D.C. Braces For Erdogan Visit Next Week: Here’s What Happened Last Time

    Earlier this week both Ankara and Washington confirmed that President Erdogan’s upcoming Nov. 13th visit to the White House on Trump’s invitation will happen as planned, despite US-Turkey relations being at their lowest point ever. This due to a host of issues including the S-400 and F-35 controversy, as well as the ‘Operation Peace Spring’ incursion into northern Syria which has seen Turkish forces fire dangerously close to US troop positions. 

    D.C. is now bracing for Erdogan and his security entourage’s visit. This will no doubt include the heightened alert of Capitol Police and the Secret Service, given what happened during the Turkish president’s prior two-day visit in 2017, when this shocking scene played out:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    A massive brawl, caught on video, had been instigated by Erdogan’s security detail at the Sheridan Circle in front of the Turkish ambassador’s residence.

    The bodyguards literally attacked a group of pro-Kurdish protesters, which included Americans, on US soil. But now with tensions between the US and Turkey at boiling point, will we witness such an attack play out again? 

    At the time Turkey even had the gall to accuse U.S. law enforcement of failing to quell an “unpermitted” and “provocative” demonstration, in an international incident which put pressure on Trump to condemn it. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    US police at the time accused Erdogan’s bodyguards of viciously attacking the peaceful protesters. The State Department had called the conduct of Erdogan’s body guards “deeply disturbing” and has “raised concerns about those events at the highest levels,” according to a spokeswoman, and even later sought to bring charges against eleven among Erdogan’s detail, who later left the country. 

    The 2017 “Protest Beat down” drove international headlines at the time and was highlighted in foreign media: 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Even apart from those shocking scenes in 2017, The Washington Post on Friday detailed the following which has not been publicly reported at the time

    But newly revealed State Department memos show the two-day visit in 2017 was filled with other troubling antics and discord. D.C. police and federal officers who were supposed to be helping protect a visiting head of state were instead entangled with his security forces from the moment the delegation’s two planes touched down at Joint Base Andrews.

    At one point, U.S. authorities intervened in a squabble among the Turkish guards. In another case, they seized a guard’s weapon and handcuffed him. They later admonished a security officer who accosted a passerby filming the entourage on a downtown street and barred a guard from traveling in a State Department car. In the course of the visit, several U.S. officers and federal agents were hurt, and at least one was punched.

    Considering this past behavior, and given what’s playing out in northern Syria with Kurdish forces under attack and facing ethnic cleansing by pro-Turkish forces, it is likely we’re in for more. 

    Pro-Kurdish groups in the US are already planning major protests, and DC police have begun preparations. 

    Police Chief Peter Newsham was quoted in the Post as saying his department “will take every measure possible to make sure we don’t have another conflict like we had the last time.” They are also coordinating with the State Department and Secret Service. 

    No doubt Erdogan’s goons and synchphants are also taking note, and making their own preparations for what will likely be another rumble in Washington.. 


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 20:00

    Tags

  • Scientists In China Are Using Live Pigs As Crash Test Dummies
    Scientists In China Are Using Live Pigs As Crash Test Dummies

    Authored by  John Vibes via TruthTheory.com,

    A recent case study of crash test simulations in China has shown that some researchers are involved in extremely inhumane animal testing. Images released with the case study show live pigs being used as crash test dummies.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The study highlighted the case of one test that involved 15 young pigs, who were strapped into car seats and used as dummies for high-speed simulations. Many of these pigs were still very young, having only been alive for 70 or 80 days before they were used in the tests. In the tests, the animals were strapped into various different seatbelts for impact testing.

    Half of the animals died in the tests, and the others were badly injured and likely traumatized from the experience.

    The researchers said that it was necessary to use the young pigs because their bodies are very similar to that of a human child, and they were hoping to actually see what these crashes would do to a living creature’s organs.

    The scientists responsible for these experiments say that they were compliant with US guidelines and claimed that their study was approved by an ethics committee. However, it seems that they may not be very familiar with what the laws in the US are, because it has been illegal to use pigs and other animals in these types of experiments in the states since the 1990s.

    Zachary Toliver of PETA said that these experiments were senseless and cruel.

    “Despite the existence of sophisticated animal-free models, experimenters continue to fasten abused, frightened animals into car seats and crash them into walls until their bodies are bloody, bruised, and mangled. Live pigs are pulverised in these tests, leaving them with broken bones and severe internal injuries before they’re killed and dissected,” he said.

    “Pigs don’t naturally sit up in car seats. Their anatomy is also very different from that of humans, so the data obtained from these horrific animal experiments aren’t applicable to human car-crash victims. Car companies figured out years ago that these kind of experiments are worthless and tell us nothing about a human experience in a car crash,” he added.

    Earlier this month, Truth Theory reported on the disturbing footage that was recently leaked from a German pharma laboratory, showing monkeys and other animals being tortured and abused. The facility is now under criminal investigation for charges related to animal cruelty.

    [ZH: we have one question… aren’t they facing a massive pig shortage?]


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 19:30

  • CTAs Are Almost Done Selling Bonds: Why The Market's "Great Rotation" Is Almost Over
    CTAs Are Almost Done Selling Bonds: Why The Market’s “Great Rotation” Is Almost Over

    In his latest note, which we covered on Friday, JPMorgan Marko Kolanovic discussed how much higher he thinks 10Y yields can rise “before they become a potential problem” for stocks (his answer: 150bps, although an even more important question is how fast they get there, and lately they have been surging).

    The JPM quant also explained why he thinks stocks are primed to rise further from current levels: in short, an unwind of the massive defensive “recession is coming” trade that defined much of 2019, as active managers rush to dump losers and scramble to make up for underperformance in the last 7 weeks of the year, in the form of a “chasing beta” rotation, to wit:

    There is still extreme crowding in defensive styles and momentum that we illustrated in our previous reports. An additional illustration is shown in Figure 1 below. It shows two strategies that in theory should have little to do with each other: one is equity long-short selection of winning/momentum stocks (momentum factor) and the other is CTA macro investing that doesn’t even hold any individual stocks, but rather mostly fixed income instruments. One can see that recently they are nearly 100% correlated. This is yet another indication of the prevalence of groupthink and crowding across investment strategies. The most recent crowding episode was largely driven by bond yields, and fears of the trade war impact and recession. A similar level of crowding can be illustrated by the performance of small-large factor and value equity factor. In theory these should be uncorrelated, but they are effectively one and the same, and they are just the inverse of the previously described momentum strategies. Our view is that the best hedge for a continued unwind of this investment groupthink is to overweight deep cyclicals like energy, metals/mining, as well as small cap stocks.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Shortly after Kolanovic laid out his thesis, Bloomberg followed suit with “Get Ready as ‘Beta-Chasing’ Stock Managers Try to Make Up Ground.”

    It’s been the same trade all year. A recession is coming, so get defensive. Now the strategy is unwinding and stock managers who toed the line all the way into November have furious catching up to do.

    We disagree.

    While we discussed previously why we find issues with Kolanovic’s assessment that cyclical and value stocks are set to explode higher at the expense of defensive/momentum names, here is an alternative take, one from Nomura, which looks at ‘the main driver behind the main driver’ of the recent stock market move, so to speak.

    As a reminder, the biggest catalyst for September’s violent rotation out of momentum/growth names and into value stocks was the sudden spike in Treasury yields as the market repriced the probability of a near-term recession. As such, it was the sharp move in yields that catalyzed the quant crash of early September, resulting in the violent reversal between cyclicals and defensives…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    … and specifically the sudden reversal in that most aggressive investor class, CTAs.

    So looking at the role CTAs played in the sharp yield moves of 2019, what becomes clear is that it was the aggressive build up of net long positions by CTAs starting in September 2018 and culminating in September 2019, before a violent reversal saw CTAs puke their long bond positions, in the process crashing pure momentum portfolios…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    … as trend-following strategies were clobbered as a result of the kneejerk moves in the 10Y:

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    So what happened since?

    For the answer we go to Nomura, which points out that while the period through August was characterized by selling (shorting) of high-risk assets and factors and buying of low-risk assets and factors, these tendencies were thrown into reverse by hedge funds liquidating positions in advance of their November results announcements. Of course, DM sovereign debt stands as the classic example of a low-risk asset.

    Why does this matter? Because trend-following CTAs, which are more technically minded than other hedge funds and also quicker to act, have since September been unwinding the substantial net long positions in DM government bonds that they had accumulated.

    But how much? And here is the punchline: after hitting a near record high net long exposure in sovereign rates which peaked right around the time $17 trillion in global bonds traded with a negative yield, the same CTAs have now shrunk their aggregate net long position in major DM government bond futures (US, Japan, Germany, UK) by about 80% from the late August peak!

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    In other words, there is just over 20% left in the great rate unwind before CTAs turn neutral, and there is no more impetus for them to liquidate positions.

    Meanwhile, as the 10yr UST yield broke above 1.90% earlier this week, which Nomura estimates to be the average cost of CTAs’ cumulative net buying of TY since April, this drew CTAs into further loss-cutting, and even more negative rates in a higher yield – greater liquidation feedback loop.

    * * *

    Yet even as the forced liquidation of CTA bond net longs – the primary catalyst behind the violent cyclical/defensive rotation – comes to an end, the big question is what happens next: do they resume accumulating long positions, or do they turn short.

    Here Nomura points out that if the last trigger line at around 2.05% (average cost of net buying since March) gets knocked out, CTAs would be pressed not only into the final phase of unwinding their TY long positions, but potentially moving net short, something they haven’t done since last summer. In that event, Nomura estimates that the systematic selling pressure on bond futures could lift 10yr UST yields well into the 2.0-2.5% range.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    If that happens, then the violent reversal of consensus trades predicted by Kolanovic will be fully in place, resulting in a potentially shattering surge in value stocks (the question whether any value funds are left to take advantage of such a move is worth pursuing). After all, as we showed yesterday, the correlation between 10Y yields and YTD consensus trades has never been more negative.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Here, we repeat the final point we made yesterday: since it is the consensus trades that get crushed as yields and cyclicals rise and as defensive stocks fall, hedge funds should be praying that Kolanovic is wrong. Because if he is right, 2019 will be another year in which the vast majority of hedge funds not only underperform the market, but post negative absolute returns, and find themselves out of a job.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 19:00

  • The One Metric That Matters For Electric Cars
    The One Metric That Matters For Electric Cars

    Authored by Leonard Hyman and William Tilles via OilPrice.com,

    Looking beyond the dramatic headlines – the cliff-hanger nature of Tesla’s financial statements and the Trump administration’s efforts to re-engineer the auto industrywe need to focus on one number that determines when electric vehicles (EVs) will make economic sense. So says a report out of Argonne Laboratories sponsored by the Department of Energy.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    That number, according to researcher George Crabtree, is the price of the battery (as measured in $ per kwh), which he says has to halve in order to make EVs competitive with conventional cars. Not promising one might think. Well, researchers now believe that battery prices could reach the magic level somewhere between 2022 and 2026.

    But, there is more to come. Researchers are working on lithium ion-solid state batteries. These would not only eliminate the unfortunate flammability issue that dogs lithium batteries but also possibly double the mileage per charge. Toyota hopes to have such a battery ready in the early 2020s.

    Still, what about the potential shortage of minerals required to build the batteries? Crabtree points out that the key to making sure we do not have a lithium shortage is to recycle the batteries. At present we recycle almost 100% of lead acid automotive batteries and less than 5% of lithium batteries. However, figuring out how to recycle the latter economically will require research.

    What all this says is that the electric vehicle could emerge from its present position in the United States as a well subsidized status symbol to a commercially competitive vehicle within five years. It looks as if the automobile manufacturers will be ready.

    But how about the electricity producers? This requires new modes of power distribution for charging stations as well as an ongoing commitment to fossil-free energy sources. This is not a trifling issue for electricity producers. Electric vehicles could eventually account for 30-40% of US electricity sales. This is huge. But these sales will not be made unless the industry has in place an infrastructure to deliver the power to the right places at the right time.

    That brings up the perennial chicken-or-the-egg question.

    • Should we incur the expense and build EV infrastructure hoping demand will eventually follow?

    • Or should we first allow car manufacturers to first build and sell their cars while hoping electric utilities move fast enough to satisfy the demand for EV charging infrastructure?

    In real estate for example, developers build roads and lay water pipes rather than tell prospective home buyers to do the job after they have taken possession. Electric utilities have in the past put in necessary infrastructure or made commitments to customers ahead of demand. But this has typically occurred only after receiving the blessing of state utility commission regulators who would permit these new assets to be added to rate base and earn incremental monies for the utility. In that way, the utility recovers its initial, considerable investment. Without the regulator’s blessing, we believe risk adverse utilities will be loath to invest in a seemingly speculative venture, especially when the Federal administration seems so averse to the new technology.

    But aside from limitations of batteries, energy density and mineral shortages, the electrification of transportation has the potential to eliminate roughly one quarter of US carbon emissions. This also assumes electric utilities install EV charging infrastructure while continuing to decarbonize base load power generations (which would knock another quarter off carbon emissions). And it now looks as if electricity producers and distributors have little more than five years to get their acts in order. This means that near term utility capital allocation decisions should be reflecting these changes. If not then perhaps another entity will assume responsibility for this aspect of the energy transition.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 18:30

  • "It's As If JPMorgan And Goldman Vanished…"
    “It’s As If JPMorgan And Goldman Vanished…”

    The equity-ification of the bond market has been closely followed by Bloomberg News and other financial journalists. Unfortunately for the big banks, it’s a trend that has largely been led by fintech firms like TradeWeb and Bloomberg. Many corporate bonds from investment grade to deep in speculative territory can be found trading on-the-run on both platforms.

    This trend virtually guarantees that, even as trading volume increases (thanks to the growing prevalence of HFT “market makers”) banks’ trading revenue will likely continue to decline, though in its early years in the pre-crisis days some believed the pullback in bank trading revenue might be temporary.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Trading revenue has been sliding since the financial crisis. According to BBG data, trading revenues at the largest banks have fallen for six out of the past seven quarters to their lowest levels in decades, with 2019 expected to set a new low.

    Last year’s $110 billion revenue haul at the 12 largest global banks was down from $149 billion in 2010, and the biggest firms are down more than 5% through the first nine months of 2019. If we add the expected slide from 2019, that’s roughly equivalent to Goldman and JPM disappearing from the market.

    In its story, BBG contends that the loss of some of the most lucrative pre-crisis products, like synthetic CDOs and their ilk, is another factor driving the fall in trading revenues among the big banks. But although markets for these securities are much smaller, and the products themselves slightly less lucrative, we’ve written extensively about their slow, creeping return (albeit in a “safer” packaging guaranteed to not spark the implosion of the global financial system).

    It’s only a matter of time before banks really ratchet up the marketing of these products. Investors’ reaction to bank earnings this season proved once again that they’re not ready to simply accept the drop in trading revenues as a secular trend affecting the entire industry. No, the big banks will face tremendous pressure to do whatever they can to revive the business. Some might try to buy their way out of it by gobbling up some of the smaller firms who BBG says account for one-third of the $39 billion drop in banking revenue mentioned above (BBG blamed lower fees and spread-compression driven by electronic trading for the other two-thirds of the drop).

    Larry Tabb, the founder of research firm Tabb Group, told BBG that the buy side is, in many cases, taking advantage of new regulatory restrictions on SIFI (systemically important financial institutions) banks to muscle in on their territory.

    “Their business model is being attacked from multiple directions,” Tabb said.

    Of course, the one-way momentum of QE-driven markets over the past decade, which has artificially depressed interest rates, has hurt both fixed-income and equity trading, while squeezing banks’ all-important net interest income, a key variable that tracks how much banks can earn from lending.

    The Trump Administration could make their jobs a whole lot easier by finally relaxing Dodd-Frank, particularly the provisions banning proprietary trading, a practice that once brought in as much as $5 billion in revenue a year on some trading desks.

    Passive investing hasn’t only hurt the wealth-management and fund-management industries, it’s also contributed to the drop in banks’ trading revenue by triggering the decline of the hedge fund industry. Hedge funds once were banks’ largest clients. But in recent years they’ve suffered outflows while trying, and often failing, to outperform significantly cheaper passive funds. Risk constraints are also making this a big problem for banks. At Goldman Sachs, the regulatory limit for value-at-risk – i.e. the measure of how much a bank’s traders can theoretically lose in a day – was just $55 million during the first nine months of the year, making large trades impossible.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Moreover, new financial regs that put restraints on bank capital, QE, a near-zero interest rate environment, political uncertainty and the ongoing debate about whether there is too much, or not enough, volatility, are also choking banks’ trading revenues. Job cuts in those areas have followed, as banks like Citigroup, DB, HSBC & SocGen have slashed thousands of positions.

    “There’s a lot of things going on in the world,” Marty Chavez explained in a Bloomberg Television interview shortly after announcing he was stepping down from his role as co-head of Goldman Sachs’s trading business. “I would say regulatory change is a part of it; interest rates; quantitative easing for very long periods of time; the cleanup, the aftermath of the financial crisis; the rise of technology — one of the most deflationary things that exists; the availability of data, broadly disseminated, to everybody; and derived data or analytics on the data. All of these things have combined.”

    To be sure, there are some signs that one or two of the largest banks might end up with the bulk of market share as its rivals exit. Just look at JPM’s Q3 earnings report.

    Focusing on JPM’s Corporate and Investment Bank, it is here that the bank surprised with an impressive FICC revenue print, which rose a whopping 25% Y/Y to $3.56BN, up $713MM compared to the year-ago quarter “which reflected less favorable market conditions.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    At the same time, JPM reported Equity Markets revenue of $1.52BN, missing expectations of $1.66BN and down 5% compared to a strong prior year, “reflecting lower revenues in derivatives, partially offset by higher Cash Equities.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Meanwhile, several major banks, including Goldman, announced plans to pull back from FICC (fixed income, currencies and commodities) trading this year.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 18:00

  • Technology Spurs On Our Ability To Deceive
    Technology Spurs On Our Ability To Deceive

    Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

    Caught between the forces of mainstream media and government propaganda it seems we can believe nothing we see or hear. Much of this problem is rooted in the agendas of large companies and those who control them. These companies have become so big and powerful that they now influence government’s message and direction. Fake news and false flags have left many of us having a difficult time deciding what is real, adding to this is the rapidly growing ability of computers to generate and alter human images. This is all about to go to a whole new level.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Margrethe Vestager, the European Union Antitrust Chief, is busy touting that the EU’s influence gives it the opportunity and power to shape the world. She insists the EU is ready to take on companies like Google, Facebook, and Amazon which she contends has used their power to undermine competition, keep out innovation and collect data on us. This has given these companies great power to manipulate society. Google did this when it used the power of its search engine to favor its own comparison shopping service. While the EU  has signaled it is going to make several big companies use their power in a way that’s fair and doesn’t discriminate the fact is this is easier to say than do.

    The EU plans to do this by flexing its muscle with a combination of competition policy and regulation changes, however, whether it will be successful remains to be seen. Like many people, I remain dubious. These powerful companies already are overly involved with shaping the message of media and government propaganda are about to unleash upon society a great deal more computer-generated models and images. These have advanced to where they blur reality and diminish the need for humans to act as spokespeople or to represent organizations.

    Back in 2011, Swedish fashion chain H&M admitted to using computer-generated models to showcase collections on its website. Since that time the ability to create computer-generated images has only gotten better. We have advanced to where it is difficult, no, it would be more accurate to say impossible to know if what you are seeing is really a person or simply the image of one. Drilling down into this issue forces us to where creativity, marketing, and price-point intersect and that has huge implications for society going forward. We have reached the point where what we are asked to believe in a world of fake news and false flags is only limited by our imagination.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Real Or Not? Click here to take the test

    An example of this and somewhat harmless can be seen in the virtual models H&M has generated for use in ads. These images look completely human, but upon inspection, if you look closely, they might all have the same body shape and pose with a real model’s head superimposed on the body where the skin tone has been digitally altered to match her complexion. This step which moves past “photoshopping” has created a bit of controversy. H&M has drawn criticism for creating a false reality and creating an unrealistic body image for women to live up to. The Swedish website Aftonbladet first noticed the uncanny similarities of the models. Hacan Andersson, a spokesman from H&M, confirmed the deception by saying:

    “It’s not a real body, it is completely virtual and made by the computer. We take pictures of the clothes on a doll that stands in the shop, and then create the human appearance with a program on a computer.”

    Andersson argued the company made the choice to use the images of computer-generated models because it simplified the process of the photoshoot and also that it allowed customers to focus on the clothes rather than the models. He acknowledged, “The result is strange to look at, but the message is clear: buy our clothes, not our models.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The Fact Is Computer-Generated Images Often Appear More Real Than Reality

    Computer-generated imagery, known as CGI, encompasses the tricks and the ability to generate and manipulate images. This creates some interesting possibilities going forward as well as greasing an already slippery slope with endless possibilities. Eventually, this could lead to a form of “Photoshop” on steroids. Anyone familiar with Photoshop knows it delivers the magic that helps people bring their creative vision to life. By editing raw image files and photos using state-of-the-art photo editing not only can people create compelling high-dynamic-range images (HDRI) they can also mislead viewers as to what is real.

    Expect a lot more of this in the future. By adding distinct characteristics from individuals that society views in a very positive light to a CGI it is not difficult to imagine that we might extend some of that same positive feeling to that image. If this is true then it is not difficult to envision both politicians and others “scrubbing” their voice and persona ever so slightly as to improve the impact they have on advancing their cause. Slowing their speech, deepening the tone of their voice, shaving off a few unwanted pounds. Manipulating people in this way could be looked at as a form of propaganda but in reality, it is only one step farther than we already go when we do extreme editing of a news clip to sway public opinion.

    The future of TV news could be very different in that it could be completely computer-generated. Take, for instance, the many imitation sounds engineered into some electronic keyboards today. While an audiophile may be able to tell the difference the average listener cannot and most people don’t care if it results in a less expensive download for their iPod. Since the same thing can be said about music and even art this can be scary, especially if you are the person suddenly discovering that a robot could take your job. In Vegas, stage shows used to all have live orchestras but now many musicians have a difficult time finding work on the strip. We have also seen the electronic equivalent of human-generated music gain a foothold as a genre and become a market all its own. Voice actors are already feeling the heat as the encroachment of synthetic voices hit the industrial/corporate market and push into audiobooks.

    The ability to produce a human-sounding voice with all the inflections, nuances, and timing that makes it interesting often requires as much technical artistry from a software engineer as it does from an experienced voice actor, however, at some point computers will be able to take over and perform this task as routine. This should not come as a surprise to anyone who has been watching recent trends in technology. A quick search for the words “voiceover” and “computer voice” will bring you rapidly up to speed. Apple has even designed into its iPhone a feature called voiceover which the visually impaired find very valuable, it reads the words on the screen out loud in what Apple calls a “spoken English interface.”

    Much of this is happening beneath the surface with little fanfare because most people consider it harmless. The fact is we now have computers that sound more human than humans and on a positive note speak more clearly. It is not difficult imagining such figures saving media networks money by delivering the news. All this takes us to a time in the future when computers have the ability to generate images that deliver dialog and can act with emotion. By mimicking figures of the past or their best qualities and traits it would be possible to create false figures with compelling personalities.

    In life most people never meet or hear their Senator or President speak in person, this means a “gentle concealed” enhancement could go a long way to make them appear more appealing. It is important to consider that if this technology can be used to enhance the stature of a person it could also be used to diminish their standing or even as a tool for character assassination. This makes this sometimes deceptive and potentially dangerous area of technology ripe for abuse. Sadly, it appears in the future it will become even more difficult to determine what is real and what is false.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 17:30

  • 'Greta' Uber Alles?
    ‘Greta’ Uber Alles?

    Forget Big Brother, in San Francisco it’s Big Sister as the uber-liberal city that prides itself on its eco-consciousness is poised for the completion of a massive mural of teenage climate-fearmonger Greta Thunberg staring down judgmentally on all those over the age of 16 who refuse to ditch their private jets, cars, and cows…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The Guardian reports that the Argentinian muralist Andres Iglesias, who signs his art with the pseudonym Cobre, is expected to complete the work next week.

    “Climate change is real,” Cobre told SFGate.

    “This girl Greta is awesome and she knows what she’s doing. I hope with this mural people will realize we have to take care of the world.”

    Some have suggested some eery similarities…

    1984?

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Putin?

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Or ISIS Executioner?

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Don’t dismiss it – you never see them in the same place at the same time…?

    *  *  *

    It’s not the first time Thunberg has been immortalized in street art. Earlier this year, the UK-based aerosol artist Jody Thomas painted a 50ft portrait of the teenager on the face of the historic Tobacco Factory in Bristol.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    And, as we noted recently, a mural of Thunberg was defaced in Edmonton, Alberta, with the vandal telling Thunberg to stop lecturing him on how to live his life.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

     


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 17:00

  • Pentagon: We'll Shoot Any Syrian Official Who Tries to Access Syrian Oil
    Pentagon: We’ll Shoot Any Syrian Official Who Tries to Access Syrian Oil

    Authored by Andrea Germanos via CommonDreams.org,

    Pentagon officials asserted Thursday U.S. military authority over Syrian oil fields because U.S. forces are acting under the goal of “protecting Americans from terrorist activity” and would be within their rights to shoot a representative of the Syrian government who attempted to retake control over that country’s national resource.

    The comments came from Pentagon spokesperson Jonathan Hoffman and Navy Rear Admiral William D. Byrne Jr. during a press briefing in which the two men were asked repeatedly about the legal basis the U.S. is claiming to control Syrian oil fields.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Syrian soldiers are seen deploying in an oil-rich area in the countryside of Qamishli, northeastern Hasakah province, in early November. Image source:  Xinhua/via Getty Images

    The briefing came less than two weeks after Defense Secretary Mark Esper said, “That’s our mission, to secure the oil fields” in the Deir ez-Zor area of eastern Syria. President Donald Trump’s comments before and after that remark —”We’re going to be protecting [the oil], and we’ll be deciding what we’re going to do with it in the future,” and “The oil… can help us, because we should be able to take some”— were seized on by critics who claimed Trump was suggesting violating international law by plundering another country’s resources and openly saying the U.S. was pursuing war for oil.

    Hoffman, in his comments Thursday, gave a different message—that “the revenue from this is not going to the U.S. This is going to the SDF,” referring to the Kurdish-led and U.S.-allied Syrian Democratic Forces, who are battling ISIS. Byrne claimed that the U.S. has been waging the oil field control mission alongside SDF and that the goal was to prevent ISIS from obtaining the oil revenue.

    But, as one reporter pointed out, ISIS fighters “have no armor. They have no aircraft.”

    “Do they have the capability to actually seize the oil fields?” the reporter asked. “And isn’t this really about Russia and Syria seizing those oil fields?”

    * * *

    Hoffman replied that the goal was “to prevent a resurgence” of ISIS which would be facilitated if the terrorist group had access to the oil revenue.

    When the Pentagon officials were pressed on whether “U.S. troops have the… authorization to shoot if a representative of the Syrian government comes to the.. oil fields and says, ‘I am here to take property of these oil fields,’” Byrne said, “our commanders always retain the right and the obligation of self-defense when faced with a hostile act or demonstrated hostile intent.”

    The officials were reminded by a reporter that “the government of Syria is still, based on international law… [the] recognized legitimate government.” Hoffman said, “Everyone in the region knows where American forces are. We’re very clear with anyone in the region in working to deconflict where our forces are. If anyone — we work to ensure that… no one approaches or has — shows hostile intent to our forces, and if they do, our commanders maintain the right of self-defense.”

    Hoffman later said that the oil field mission couldn’t be separated from the fight to defeat ISIS. Operations in “Syria are done under the commander-in-chief’s authorities to — with regards to protecting Americans from terrorist activity.”

    Pressed again by a reporter about the “legal basis for… the United States military to take and control the natural resources inside the boundaries of another country,” Hoffman responded, “the legal basis for this comes under the commander-in-chief’s authority for us to be conducting counter-terrorism efforts against ISIS. And I — I get your point when you’re trying to decouple the ISIS issue from the Syria issue, but it is not a decoupled issue.”

    Later Hoffman was asked by a reporter if “President Trump [has] legal authority to take over these oil fields or is the United States stealing the oil?”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Image via AFP/DW

    Hoffman repeated his stance that the operations were a part of the effort to defeat terrorists and stopping “ISIS from obtaining the oil fields is an effort to prevent them from obtaining revenue so that they can fund their terrorist operations globally.”

    The Pentagon official also appeared to push back against the notion that the mission to control the oil fields is new. “Just to be clear, we’ve been in this area with the same mission of preventing ISIS from getting those oil fields for the last four years. This is not a new mission. Everybody seems to be — believe that that has changed. That is not —that is not the case.”

    U.S. forces may also stay with that effort for years to come, Hoffman suggested.

    “We’re committed to [the defeat of ISIS], and we’re committed to staying in the region,” he said. “We’re committed to, in this particular case, having troops in Syria in a way that helps us continue the D-ISIS mission as long as we believe it’s necessary.”


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 16:30

  • America's Richest 1% Now Own As Much Wealth As The Middle And Lower Classes Combined
    America’s Richest 1% Now Own As Much Wealth As The Middle And Lower Classes Combined

    Two weeks ago we pointed out that even as (or rather, because) stocks hit daily all time highs, we now have mass public unrest (on and off) in: France, Spain, Algeria; Iraq: Lebanon; Egypt; Russia; Hong Kong; Venezuela; Chile; Ecuador; and Bolivia.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The is a simple reason for this social anger: an unprecedented wealth and income divide as a result of constant central bank interventions in capital markets, which have made upward social mobility virtually impossible and stagnant wage growth the norm, and nowhere more so than in the US, where as Bloomberg reports citing the latest Fed data, “one-percenters” now hold almost as much wealth as the middle- and upper-middle classes combined, as a result of the relentless ascent in stocks which added another $1 trillion in market value in just the past week, bringing the total to $82.7 trillion.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Here are the facts: as the NBER recently reported, in 2016 the richest one percent of households held more than half of all outstanding stock, financial securities, trust equity, and business equity, and 40 percent of non-home real estate. The top 10 percent of families as a group directly owned over 93% of all stock and mutual fund ownership.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Moreover, despite the fact that almost half of all households owned stock shares either directly or indirectly through mutual funds, trusts, or various pension accounts, the richest 10 percent of households controlled 84 percent of the total value of these stocks, though less than its 93 percent share of directly owned stocks and mutual funds.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    And with the stock market soaring to new highs, it will hardly be a surprise that the “top 1%” of American households have enjoyed huge returns in the stock market in the past decade, ironically enough using data from the Federal Reserve, which is directly responsible for this unprecedented wealth distribution. And, as Bloomberg notes, “those fat portfolios have America’s elite gobbling up an ever-bigger piece of the pie.”

    In specific terms, this means that the very richest 1% had assets of about $35.4 trillion in the second quarter, or just shy of the $36.9 trillion held by the tens of millions of people who make up the 50th percentile to the 90th percentile of Americans — much of the middle and upper-middle classes.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Commenting on this unprecedented wealth divergence that was last observed a few years before World War II, Lakeview Capital’s chief market strategist Stephen Colavito said that people can’t get much of a return on certificates of deposits and other passive investments, “so they’ve pumped money into stocks and propped up the market overall.”

    Actually, the one who is “propping up the market overall” is the Fed, which following a mini repo market crisis sparked by JPMorgan launched “NOT QE”, and injected $280 billion in fresh liquidity in just the past two months, pushing the Fed’s balance sheet above $4 trillion for the first time since February.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    At this point, wealth becomes a feedback loop: “The wealthier that the wealthy get, the more opportunity they have,” Colavito said.

    It’s also why angry populist movements have become an ever more powerful force on both the left and right, demanding either wealth redistribution, higher taxation of outright punishment of those billionaires who have benefited from the Fed’s artificial levitation of the stock market. In many countries around the globe, this anger has spilled over on the streets as millions protest for social change, on many occasions with violence.

    Their anger is only set to grow, because as Bloomberg notes it may not be long before “1-percenters” surpass the middle and upper-middle classes combined. Household wealth in the upper-most bracket grew by $650 billion in the second quarter of 2019, rising to $35.5 trillion, while Americans in the 50th to 90th percentiles saw a $210 billion gain.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    One step below the top 1%, those Americans in 90th to 99th percentiles, still control the biggest share of wealth, with $42.6 trillion in assets.

    What about the bottom end of US society? Well, if the super rich own almost all stocks, the “bottom 90%”, i.e., 90% of the entire US population, owns the vast majority of debt, some 72.4% of the total pile.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    There is one final twist: the wealthy vs poor conflict is increasingly being drawn along age groups: Baby Boomers born between the end of the Second World War and 1964 currently hold wealth that was 11 times higher than that of millennials as of the second quarter.

    So how are millennials protesting this unfair age wealth divide? Are they rioting, becoming political activists and voting in droves, unionizing or participating in mass labor strikes? None of the above: after all, even refusing to work is apparently too much work; instead America’s youth has flooded social media with the pinnacle of passive-aggressive revolt in the form of the now ubiquitous OK Boomer.”

    We doubt the Boomers are losing too much sleep over this rebellion by the avocado toast generation.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 16:00

  • Is China's Embrace Of Blockchain A Warning Shot To The West?
    Is China’s Embrace Of Blockchain A Warning Shot To The West?

    Authored by Fan Yu, op-ed via The Epoch Times,

    China has high ambitions for its state-controlled digital currency.

    I wrote two months ago that its central bank digital currency could be imminent. And since foreign adoption of the yuan has been tepid so far, the technology also represents a massive bid to accelerate the internationalization of yuan.

    In hindsight, that timing was too aggressive. Beijing likely will introduce its digital currency within 12 to 18 months. China has also doubled down on its conviction. Recently, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping further fanned the flames by extolling blockchain technology—which underpins cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin—as a “breakthrough that can facilitate China’s progress.”

    That endorsement prompted a rally in cryptocurrency prices, which was perhaps undeserved. But its effect on cryptocurrencies, the yuan’s global adoption, Facebook’s Libra project, and Western banking hegemony can’t be understated.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    What It Means for Central Banks

    China’s strong endorsement of a blockchain-based central bank currency and the West’s relative aversion to the technology opens an interesting new front in the growing U.S.–China technology rivalry.

    And it’s a new front on which the United States may not be prepared to fight.

    Developments in fintech, payments, and blockchain digital currencies are receiving support from the highest levels of the Chinese central government. The U.S. government—which seeded development of the internet in the 1960s via the ARPANET project—has so far shunned the technology.

    Whether blockchain can be a successful technology underpinning global payments is still an open question. Current blockchain technologies still have speed and volume limitations. But what it allows China to do is bypass the dollar-based global banking system and intermediary banks.

    There’s another application China is potentially working on. Max Keiser, the host of the Keiser Report, a financial news show on the Russian state network channel RT, recently suggested that China’s digital currency has even greater ambitions.

    “I can tell you that the cryptocurrency that China’s rolling out will be backed by gold,” Keiser told Kitco News, a gold-focused website.

    “It’s a two-pronged announcement. Number one, China’s got 20,000 (metric tons) of gold, and number two, they’re rolling out a crypto coin backed by gold, and the dollar is toast.”

    If true, that could be a game-changer, as currently, no government currency is backed by gold. The United States abandoned the last remnants of pegging the dollar to its gold reserves in 1971. The ramifications of this are beyond the scope for this article, but it’s a development that Western central banks need to pay attention to.

    What It Means for Crypto Market

    Bitcoin prices jumped almost 16 percent on Oct. 25, the day after Xi made his pro-blockchain comments at a Politburo meeting on that technology. The Politburo is a body of 25 of the Party’s most elite officials.

    But Beijing was quick to tamp down the correlation.

    “Rise of blockchain technology was accompanied by that of cryptocurrencies, but innovation in blockchain technology does not mean we should speculate in virtual currencies,” according to an Oct. 28 commentary published on the CCP mouthpiece People’s Daily.

    As of Nov. 3, bitcoin prices have declined slightly since that initial rally, and for good reason. Beijing’s affirmation of blockchain isn’t an affirmation of cryptocurrencies. Chinese authorities banned initial coin offerings and domestic cryptocurrency exchanges in 2017, and there’s speculation about a crackdown on cryptocurrency miners.

    Any cryptocurrency market reaction to recent developments should be neutral to negative, as China’s state-controlled digital currency could become a legitimate competitor to existing cryptocurrencies.

    What It Means for State Control

    China has long argued that cryptocurrencies create chaos and disorder. Cryptocurrencies’ key benefits are hugely negative for the CCP: They can’t be centrally controlled and users must sell fiat currency (e.g., the yuan) to purchase digital currencies.

    China’s state digital currency affords several benefits for the CCP regime. It’s a digital currency that it can control, the government can track where it’s going, and it’s a domestically developed technology that doesn’t rely on foreign entities.

    Beijing undoubtedly has plans to use its digital currency to exert more control and surveillance on users. Unlike paper money, state-controlled digital currency can be used to track consumer spending extremely accurately and also to enforce strict capital controls. Its potential for surveillance is far greater than existing mobile payment apps such as WeChat or Alipay, which are owned by private Chinese companies.

    Such tactics can easily be exported abroad, once foreign countries begin to adopt China’s digital currency.

    The West doesn’t seem to have many viable alternatives. Cryptocurrencies inherently bypass central banks and therefore, are unlikely to be legitimized by authorities. Absent advancements in blockchain by Western central banks, Libra is perhaps the most logical challenger to China’s proposed currency.

    Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg argued in his remarks in front of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee on Oct. 23:

    “China is moving quickly to launch a similar idea in the coming months. We can’t sit here and assume that because America is today the leader, that it will always get to be the leader if we don’t innovate.”

    But the Libra project is having trouble getting off the ground as some initial corporate backers such as eBay, Mastercard, PayPal, and Visa have withdrawn their participation. And lawmakers have so far criticized the project as an effort by Facebook to gain more influence and improve financial returns.

    During Zuckerberg’s testimony, he appeared to hedge his bet, conceding that Facebook and himself are perhaps “not the ideal messenger” given the circumstances. He described Libra as one “potential approach” to digitizing payments.

    U.S. lawmakers are right to fear Facebook’s growing ambitions, and there must be other alternative solutions. One thing is clear: Beijing isn’t slowing down.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 15:30

  • Activist Shrinks Want To Tell Impeachment Panel Trump Is Crazy
    Activist Shrinks Want To Tell Impeachment Panel Trump Is Crazy

    A group of medical professionals who claim that President Trump is mentally unfit for office want to testify during House Democrats’ impeachment probe, according to the Washington Examiner, the latest development in an ongoing effort to explore removing Trump via the 25th amendment.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Led by Dr. Brandy Lee – a Yale forensic psychologist (who remains unlicensed in Connecticut), the group includes three other psychologists, a clinical neuropsychologist, a neurologist and an internist – who will announce their availability next week to members of Congress and the media.

    Notably, the group didn’t avail themselves during the closed-door impeachment hearings – so this is clearly more about influencing public opinion than genuine concern.

    Lee and those prepared to testify say there is enough information from the president’s public appearances, tweets, interviews, and also from special counsel Robert Mueller’s 448-page report, to make the determination that, as Lee put it, “the president lacks mental capacity to fulfill the duties of his office.

    There is very little that a personal examination will add,” Lee said. –Washington Examiner

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    A wide-eyed Dr. Brandy Lee explains why Trump is crazy.

    “We think that hearing about mental health aspects in the context of the impeachment hearings is critical, partly because, for the past 2.5 years we have been very deeply concerned about mental instability of the president, and pretty much all that we have said has born out to be true,” said Lee – who previously diagnosed Trump with a “mental impairment” for “going back to conspiracy theories, denying things he has admitted before,” and “his being drawn to violent videos.”

    Earlier this year Lee spearheaded a group of experts which conducted a mental health analysis of Trump using the Mueller report, concluding that he doesn’t have the mental capacity to be president and recommended he lose his war powers and access to nuclear weapons. 

    The psychiatrists who are making themselves available for consultation are Dr. James Merikangas, Dr. Jerrold Post, Dr. John Zinner, and Dr. Allen Dyer, all of whom teach at George Washington University. Sara Pascoe, a clinical neuropsychologist who is a former member of the National Academy of Medicine, is also part of the panel. Lee doesn’t yet have permission from the neurologist and internist to name them publicly.

    The experts plan to share findings from the mental health analysis if called in to testify. Post, who spent two decades at the CIA and compiled psychological profiles of world leaders, also has a book coming out called Dangerous Charisma: The Political Psychology of Donald Trump and His Followers to use as part of the testimony. Dyer, who helped author the American Psychiatric Association’s “Goldwater Rule,” which says it’s unethical for a psychiatrist to offer a professional opinion of public figures they haven’t personally examined, will help navigate ethical rules, Lee said. –Washington Examiner

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “We don’t believe there is the need for any further evaluation, and we are making ourselves available for the impeachment hearing because we believe that mental health issues will become critical as pressures from the impeachment hearings mount,” said Lee. “In other words, the more successful the impeachment proceedings become, the more dangerous the psychological factors of the president will become.”

    Lee calls her group the “Independent Expert Panel for Presidential Fitness.”

    She is also the editor of The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump, a compilation of testimonials from 27 psychiatrists and mental health experts weighing in on Trump’s level of “dangerousness.”


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 15:00

  • The Economics Behind The Fall Of The Berlin Wall
    The Economics Behind The Fall Of The Berlin Wall

    Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

    This week marks the thirtieth anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Like most historical events that are commemorated as if they took place on a single day, the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, was just one of many interrelated events that led to the end of the system of Soviet client states in Eastern Europe, and the end of the Soviet Union itself, in December of 1991.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    With the fall of the Berlin Wall, East Germans, who had lived under severe restrictions on travel and emigration, were able to freely travel to West Berlin, which continued a chain of events already begun earlier that year in which many anti-Soviet dissidents throughout Eastern Europe became emboldened and met with unprecedented success. Meanwhile, East Germans flooded into neighboring countries by the thousands, seeking refuge from Soviet-sponsored oppression in Austria and West Germany.

    Why It Was Different in 1989

    Throughout the mid-twentieth century, Eastern Europe was home to numerous anti-Soviet revolts and acts of civil disobedience. In Hungary in 1956, Prague in 1968, and especially in Poland throughout the 1970s and 1980s, resistance flared up, but was reliably crushed with Soviet-sponsored martial law and outright military intervention.

    But in the summer of 1989, the Poles held an election that essentially overthrew the Soviet-approved regime in Poland. This, time, however, instead of sending tanks to crush the Polish agitators, the USSR did nothing.

    By November of that year, dissidents had become emboldened by Soviet inaction. Hungary and Czechoslovakia haphazardly opened their borders, allowing East Germans to stream into Austria and on to West Germany. East Berliners began to demand free passage to the West. The “fall” of the wall, soon followed.

    Americans today, and especially American conservatives, like to claim that the end of the Soviet bloc and the Soviet Union was America’s doing; that the Soviet oligarchs feared American military might, and simply decided to give up and vote themselves out of existence, as they did two years later. This tale makes for nice domestic propaganda in America, but the fact that regimes virtually never just “give up” without firing a shot when faced with a threatening foreign power makes it rather unlikely.

    We are far more likely to find an answer if we ask ourselves not why the American state was so strong in the 1980s, but why the Soviet state was so weak. If the Soviets were more than capable of maintaining “order” in Eastern Europe during the 50s, 60s, and 70s, why was it unable or unwilling to do the same in the 1980s?

    An inquiry along these lines quickly leads us to find that by the 1980s, the soviet economy, and most of the economies of Eastern Europe were economic basket cases. Housing was in disrepair. Vehicles and appliances were incredibly old-fashioned and unreliable. The standard of living was a fraction of what it was in the “West.” Basic items like soap and women’s pantyhose were often luxuries.

    In other words, the centrally-planned economies of the Soviet bloc produced little actual wealth, and as the regimes siphoned off more and more of what little wealth was being produced, the people, as well as the regimes, became poorer and poorer.

    This economic weakness meant not only that the legitimacy of the regime was imperiled, but that the Soviets no longer enjoyed a military “surplus” with which they could simply roll into every rebellious neighborhood and re-establish order.

    In other words, the USSR was too poor to pay the political bills.

    Mises and the Calculation Problem

    None of this would have surprised Ludwig von Mises. Decades before, Mises had shown that a socialist economy (by which he meant a centrally planned economy) could not possibly know what to produce, when to produce it, or for whom to produce. In explaining this, Mises proved that the Soviet Union, regardless of any victories it might have in remolding human nature, was economically impossible. Rothbard explains:

    Before Ludwig von Mises raised the calculation problem in his celebrated article in 1920, everyone, socialists and non-socialists alike, had long realized that socialism suffered from an incentive problem. If, for example, everyone under socialism were to receive an equal income, or, in another variant, everyone was supposed to produce “according to his ability” but receive “according to his needs,” then, to sum it up in the famous question: Who, under socialism, will take out the garbage? That is, what will be the incentive to do the grubby jobs, and, furthermore, to do them well? …

    But the uniqueness and the crucial importance of Mises’s challenge to socialism is that it was totally unrelated to the well-known incentive problem. Mises in effect said: All right, suppose that the socialists have been able to create a mighty army of citizens all eager to do the bidding of their masters, the socialist planners. What exactly would those planners tell this army to do? How would they know what products to order their eager slaves to produce, at what stage of production, how much of the product at each stage, what techniques or raw materials to use in that production and how much of each, and where specifically to locate all this production? How would they know their costs, or what process of production is or is not efficient?

    Mises demonstrated that, in any economy more complex than the Crusoe or primitive family level, the socialist planning board would simply not know what to do, or how to answer any of these vital questions. Developing the momentous concept of calculation, Mises pointed out that the planning board could not answer these questions because socialism would lack the indispensable tool that private entrepreneurs use to appraise and calculate: the existence of a market in the means of production, a market that brings about money prices based on genuine profit-seeking exchanges by private owners of these means of production. Since the very essence of socialism is collective ownership of the means of production, the planning board would not be able to plan, or to make any sort of rational economic decisions. Its decisions would necessarily be completely arbitrary and chaotic, and therefore the existence of a socialist planned economy is literally “impossible” (to use a term long ridiculed by Mises’s critics).

    The Soviet central planners never had an answer to this critique. Indeed, their “answer” only came in 1991 when the USSR finally shut itself down. And even up to the end, American Keynesians never figured it out either, and Paul Samuelson still claiming in 1989 that a “socialist command economy can function and even thrive.”

    Why Did it Take So Long?

    In response to Mises’s claim of the impossibility of central planning, some then ask “well, if central planning was impossible, why did it last so long?”

    The answer can be found in the fact that even in a centrally planned state, capital does not simply vanish overnight. The soviet planners were not starting with nothing. They had the accumulated capital of centuries of savings and investment by Russians, Ukrainians, Germans, Poles, and others under their control.

    True, it was not possible for them to correctly plan or determine non-arbitrarily what goods should be produced. But they nevertheless had large amounts of capital at their disposal, and even if the centrally planned state produced zero wealth (which was not true since even the Soviet state produced some things people wanted), the state still had plenty of wealth to redistribute until it was all gone.

    This is all the more true for regimes that are only partly centrally planned, as in the case of Venezuela, on which Nicolás Cachanosky observed:

    [I]f one of the wealthiest and developed countries in the world were to adopt Cuban or North Korean institutions overnight … [t]he wealth and capital does not vanish in 24 hours. The country would shift from capital accumulation to capital consumption and it might take years or even decades to drain the coffers of previously accumulated wealth. In the meantime, the government has the resources to … enjoy the wealth, highways, electrical infrastructure, and communication networks that were the result of the more free-market institutional realities of the past.

    Eventually, though, the “reserve fund,” as Mises called it, is used up:

    An essential point in the social philosophy of interventionism is the existence of an inexhaustible fund which can be squeezed forever. The whole system of interventionism collapses when this fountain is drained off: The Santa Claus principle liquidates itself.

    In addition to this, the Soviets made money for the regime by selling oil (and other goods) in international markets, and high oil prices in the 1970s propped up the regime so well, that had it not been for Soviet oil sales, it’s quite possible the regime would have collapsed a decade earlier.

    Conclusion

    As the mainstream news outlets cover the anniversary of the Berlin Wall’s fall this year, they will surely spend much time discussing the role of various American politicians, and military programs, and international relations. It is quite possible that all of these things had an effect on the regimes of Eastern Europe that were non-trivial.

    Nonetheless, such analysis ignores the huge elephant in the room which is the inevitable failure of regimes that are built on central planning and wealth re-distribution. Without markets and prices, there can be no planning, and without planning, no wealth creation, and ultimately, no political durability. The rebels and demonstrators of Eastern Europe deserve immense credit for courageously standing up to the state. But in the end, those who were successful were helped immensely by good timing and bad economics.

    *  *  *

    This article was first published in 2014 to mark the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. It has been slightly updated for the 30th anniversary.


    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 11/09/2019 – 14:30

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 9th November 2019

  • Exposing The Plan For A Global Dystopia
    Exposing The Plan For A Global Dystopia

    Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

    Global policy planners intend to deliver replacements for both dollar hegemony and fossil fuels. Plans may appear uncoordinated and in their early stages, but these issues are becoming increasingly linked.

    A monetary reset incorporating state-sponsored cryptocurrencies will enable exchange controls to be introduced between nations by separating cross-border trade payments from domestic money circulation. The purpose will be to gain greater control over money and to direct its investment into green projects.

    The OECD will build on current tax disclosures to make everyone’s income and capital known to governments and therefore readily taxable, money destined to kick-start economic growth. Under the guidance of supranational organisations, governments will redirect investment into green technology. The objective, particularly for Europeans, is to neutralise Russia’s increasing dominance of the global energy market by becoming carbon neutral by 2030.

    But perhaps as Robert Burns put it, “the best-laid schemes o’ mice an’ men gang aft agley”. They are based on Keynesian fallacies, but cannot be ignored.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Introduction

    There appear to be policy areas being driven by statist responses to events, encouraging global institutions to take on a coordinating role. It means deeper levels of centralised planning by unaccountable bureaucrats. Assuming their plans continue to gain credence, we could end up with a dystopian world where supranational bodies direct individual governments to conform. We are already on this road to perdition. The OECD has coordinated attempts by governments to restrict the freedom of their citizens to avoid taxes by forcing over a hundred jurisdictions to automatically supply information on the financial affairs of every citizen, irrespective of nationality and where they reside.

    By doing so, it has removed the necessity for governments to moderate their tax demands for fear that individuals will move their money out of reach. Information on private affairs are now exchanged automatically by banks, lawyers, financial advisors and accountants, without the individual’s knowledge. As a result of the introduction of the OECD’s common reporting standard, the organisation claims that over $85bn of additional tax revenue has been raised. The intention is to raise more, much more.

    This has been the OECD’s mission for some time, leading the way for other supranational organisations to carve out roles for themselves. Ones that come to mind are the IMF, which with a green agenda intends to prioritise investment funding for alternatives to fossil fuels both directly and indirectly through the World Bank and the regional development banks. Subsidiary roles are likely to be played by other UN divisions, useful for binding emerging market nations to the plans.

    Central banks acting in concert could have a new role of coordinating a monetary reset, which as we can deduce from Mark Carney’s speech at Jackson Hole in August is already being discussed. We shall start by looking at the state of current monetary policies, their failure, and the drive to replace them with something else, before addressing the energy question.

    The monetary problem

    There are two categories of folk who think everything to do with economics and money are not much to worry about; the disinterested public and the investment management community. Their livelihoods depend upon it. Another category, libertarians, Austrian economists, bitcoin fans, gold bugs and readers of and contributors to agglomerating sites such as ZeroHedge have views ranging from sceptical to downright catastrophic. Not known to many is another, the most important category, which is very worried indeed, and that is governments and their central banks.

    These are the people quietly talking about a big-picture reset, those that know the post-Breton Woods fiat dollar system is no longer fit for purpose. They see escalating debt, interest rates failing to stimulate, and economic stagnation. They see a mismatch between international trade and the use of the dollar as a global settlement medium. They don’t talk about it much, to do so would frighten us, the lowly ruminants.

    I was ruminating on this recently after Max Keiser, of the Keiser Report on RT, asked me what I thought of Mark Carney’s speech at Jackson Hole in August about a global monetary system to replace the dollar. I replied something about Carney about to retire, and presumably feeling slightly freer to express the concerns which he must share with his friends at the Bank for International Settlements, and various other monetary panjandrums who have observed the obvious: their cosy world of money-printing doesn’t work, is unlikely to ever work, and must be reformed to give them more control.

    Since then my thoughts have turned to the reset problem in a broader sense. The assumption must be that time is available for such an event to be planned, or at least pre-planned as an insurance policy against monetary failure. In either event, it is putting the cart before the horse, because when a credit crisis hits it invariably takes the authorities by surprise, and it looks increasingly close in time. The priority will not then be monetary evolution but economic and financial rescue.

    That point having been made, from the central bankers’ point of view, what is to be done? The obvious answer is to rig the game by changing the rules. As Keynes said, when the facts change, he changed. That way, they think they might dispose of the failing system and replace it with an updated one that suits their policy purposes better. With a bit of luck, declining confidence in the old will be replaced by a new paradigm, something that will allow them all, politicians and central bankers, to claim success for saving the Western world from a potential monetary crisis.

    The problem is they don’t know how to do it, and they don’t yet know what the new paradigm will be. There is no unity on the matter, because for the Fed and the US Government it involves an unacceptable loss of monetary and political power. The Chinese, in partnership with the Russians, want to do away with the dollar, while the Europeans are leading themselves to a socialist dystopia at odds with Trump’s America, while being frightened of the Russian bear in the east.

    This is why influencers like Carney can only hypothesize about a new monetary set-up involving a reduced role for the dollar. Central banks are exploring cryptocurrencies. It is reported that seven out of ten of them are researching the possibilities. That won’t save fiat currencies, but it might give central banks greater control over how their fiat currencies are used. Perhaps they think a state issued cryptocurrency can replace unadorned fiat. But then that raises two issues: if the existing fiat is failing it is likely a new state-sponsored cryptocurrency risks having a credibility problem from the outset and even if the public does accept it, its future issue will have to be strictly limited and the cycle of bank credit properly addressed.

    But get it right and markets could be tamed, the logic goes. And somehow, a global cryptocurrency-based monetary system for international trade could replace the failing post-Bretton Woods monetary system reserved on the US dollar. For policy makers, it is becoming an urgent question, as a reading of Carney’s Jackson Hole speech makes clear.

    Specifically, in his speech Carney identified the existence of a global liquidity trap nullifying interest rate policy with three elements: a global savings glut tied up in dollars, a reduction in the scale of sustainable cross border flows and “fattening of the left-hand tail and increasing the downside skew of likely economic outcomes”. This last element of gobbledegook appears to translate into an acknowledgement of the failure of current interest rate policy to stimulate economic recovery, which cannot be admitted in plain English.

    Carney’s problem, besides the veiled admission of policy failure, is he ignores the fact that America needs increasing quantities of foreign dollar ownership to fund its escalating budget deficit, without which the dollar fails, and term interest rates will soar. If he and his cohort push policies intended to redeploy funds that are otherwise destined for the dollar and US Treasuries, they will face strong opposition from the US Treasury and being based on the dollar, the likely collapse of the whole fiat edifice.

    As for a reduction in cross border flows, that is a function of falling cross-border trade, not money. The reason cross-border trade has collapsed is because of the US-Chinese trade spat and its knock-on effects. Even if we pass on the gobbledegook of his third point, it is difficult for an independent observer not to take Carney’s speech as indicative of desperation, ivory-tower economic error or both.

    Being based on Keynesian macroeconomic beliefs, we can take the evidence of economic error for granted, particularly since these beliefs have consistently failed to deliver any credible solution. It is the element of desperation we must explore further. If Carney feels a sense of desperation (and his speech reeks of it) then his fellow central bankers will as well. But instead of just abandoning failed policies, a bridge is required towards a new set of policies, a monetary reset. And it will almost certainly involve a greater suppression of the role of markets and an increase in state control over money and how it is used.

    For central bankers, there is a fear that the emergence of a competing private sector crypto-payments system, even linked to a basket of fiat currencies, will challenge national currencies. They would have to be pretty dopey not to see that Bitcoin in particular is educating the masses about the moral fraud behind the expansion of fiat money. The challenge will be to come up with a credible alternative, completely under the control of a few major central banks. But first, the purpose of a state-backed cryptocurrency must be settled.

    For every nation other than America, evolution from the failing post-Breton Woods monetary system is about reducing the role of the dollar in trade settlement and freeing up capital needlessly tied up in dollars. Before the invention of cryptocurrencies, this would presumably have been achieved through a combination of an evolutionary process and increasing use of currency swaps to enhance liquidity, particularly in euros and renminbi, to replace the dominance of dollars in reserve balances.

    The facilitation of foreign trade appears to be the role most likely to be destined for a state-issued cryptocurrency. Initial swap lines of state-sponsored cryptocurrencies would be proportionate to the trade between existing currency blocks. It could then be deployed for trade settlement, which would require it to be made available to commercial banks. We then have two currency versions: an existing fiat currency which circulates domestically and a separate blockchain based currency reserved for international use. With an onshore and offshore version, there can be two interest rates suitably set for their applications, so long as arbitrage routes are severely restricted, with the offshore version trading at a premium.

    Old hands in Britain will be familiar with the basic concept, before Margaret Thatcher removed exchange controls. To monetary planners, there are several perceived benefits from such a scheme, particularly for the Eurozone. By separating trade settlement from domestic currency circulation, de facto currency controls are introduced, permitting access to the state crypto currency to non-domestic trading entities and banks, while denying its use in the domestic economy. Importantly, the expansion of bank credit would be retained for the domestic currency only, managed through a two-tier interest rate policy.

    Any investment in foreign currencies would require the payment of the premium that applies on the crypto version of the currency. The prospects of an international run against a currency such as the euro would recede, as the existing liquidity for international trade is replaced by a centralised, highly managed, trade-related cryptocurrency.

    For policy makers at the ECB it must be a tempting solution if it can be made to work. It would give them greater monetary control overall, and they could attempt to stimulate the Eurozone economy by deploying deeper negative rates without the fear of a failing exchange rate.

    From America’s point of view these moves or anything like them will almost certainly be strongly resisted. They need foreigners to buy dollars to fund the budget deficit. And they are now experiencing the flaws of US isolationism and Trumpian trade policies, which are already leading to a contraction and potential reversal of foreign flows into US Treasuries.

    China would be an interested observer of these developments. She has been planning to issue a cryptocurrency of her own, which could allow her to internationalise a crypto version of the renminbi more rapidly than it has managed with its existing renminbi. Russia has already ditched the dollar for geopolitical reasons and is trying to gain control over the energy market from a moribund OPEC.

    To summarise, discontent with the post Bretton Woods monetary system and the disproportionate role of the dollar are likely to be the reasons why so many central banks are looking at cryptocurrency solutions. But as stated at earlier in this article, it assumes pre-planning, those best-laid schemes of mice and men, are not overtaken by events.

    Crypto and gold

    There can be little doubt that monetary policy is descending towards crisis, and a major bank failure could even occur in the next few months. If we find ourselves facing another Lehman moment, the priority will be to stabilise markets first, and then currencies as needed at a time of widespread negative interest rates and bond yields.

    As insurance against such an event, the majority of central banks retain physical gold as part of their reserves. In Europe, Germany France and Italy hold significant quantities of gold which the monetary authorities at the ECB might in theory wish to deploy as the backing for a common cryptocurrency. But this is unlikely to be a preferred option, because central banks always retain their gold reserves (leasing aside) and only use them for monetary purposes as a last resort.

    To re-introduce gold backing would deny all credibility to neo-classical macroeconomic theory, which relies on achieving an inflation target consistent with maximising employment. Given the need for a rapid expansion of global money supply as a policy response to the next credit crisis or to finance escalating government debt, the purchasing power of state-issued currencies will almost certainly decline while that of gold will rise. A currency credibly linked to gold would therefore also rise, assuming it acts as a proper gold substitute. A gold standard fixed at the current rate of $1500 would be seen as strongly deflationary if gold goes any higher.

    It is therefore probably true that no Western central bank would contemplate such a move in current economic conditions. If, in time, a credit and systemic crisis threatens the destruction of unbacked state currencies, and the event causes conventional thinking in the central banking community to discard inflationism, that would be a different matter. But that is far from the current situation.

    In any event, a far higher gold price would be required to fix fiat currencies sustainably to gold. Even China, which has been accumulating physical gold and encouraging its people to do so as well, is too hooked on monetary and credit expansion as the principal means of driving its economy to contemplate such a move for its own economy. However, the accumulation of gold reserves by many of China’s Asian trading partners suggests some sort of gold backing for a cross-border settlement medium is likely instead of delivering physical gold, and this is where China’s plans for a new state-sponsored cryptocurrency may eventually be heading.

    The conflict over energy

    As is the case with the global monetary system, global energy markets face enormous change with both the EU and supranational organisations, such as UNCTAD, the UN’s conference on trade and development, pushing a policy of dropping carbon fuels for green alternatives. Furthermore, the original agreement whereby Saudi Arabia agreed to sell its oil for dollars, giving US banks control over monetary surpluses from all OPEC’s oil sales, is no longer appropriate because the energy world has radically changed since that deal was struck in 1973.

    That agreement has been the central plank to the dollar’s role as a reserve currency. Since 1973, the Soviet Union has collapsed and under President Putin, Russia has emerged as the largest exporter of oil and gas combined. Furthermore, as America’s victories in the Middle East are proving to be only pyrrhic, Russia’s influence is spreading across the region, forming alliances with Iran, Turkey and Syria. China is the region’s most important energy customer, and with its silk road projects is also increasing its influence on the region.

    America’s response to these developments is lacking focus. It now has precious little real business in the region other than arms supplies, and under President Trump America has become isolationist. Furthermore, Trump wished to disengage militarily from the region, while the intelligence and military establishment wanted to increase their commitments. The gaps in US policy have been quietly exploited by Russia and China to great effect.

    The EU sees US leadership failing while the Russian beast to its east are getting stronger. The lessons of Russia wielding power over Ukraine by cutting off energy supplies have been noted: energy security is a long-term threat to the EU and Russia is on the verge of controlling Middle Eastern supplies as well. Furthermore, the lessons of China’s economic successes through non-democratic government control will also have been noted as something for European statists to emulate.

    The EU’s response to the energy threat from Russia has been to adopt a radical green agenda without reservation. Despite about 98% of transport and logistics being delivered by diesel and gasoline, some member states in the EU are banning the sales of internal combustion engines as motive power from as soon as 2030. This accelerated path to zero emissions will require massive investment. Clearly this is being viewed as economically stimulative at a time of declining optimism over the general economic outlook.

    These views are articulated in UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Report 2019, Financing a Global Green Deal[iii]. The authors argue that internationally coordinated action between governments pursuing reflationary monetary and fiscal policies, while restricting international capital flows, will generate the economic growth and capture the resources to finance the investment. The charts below are indicative of their thinking, and are copied from Page 56 of the report.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    This is one of several examples in the report. Here, it is argued that a combination of higher minimum wages and increasingly progressive rates of taxation to redistribute wealth to lower earners leads to greater economic growth, in this case by boosting consumption of the masses at the expense of the few. It’s pure Keynesianism.

    Similar arguments are made for increasing government spending on goods and services and increasing spending on welfare to further boost consumption. More extensive use of capital controls to restrict destabilising investment flows and to make them available for green investment instead are recommended (pp. 125-129). Central banks are encouraged to direct quantitative easing in favour of green investment, and through regulation impose higher risk margins on bank exposure to fossil fuel related investments and loans (pp. 153-156).

    It amounts to an extension and escalation of failed inflationist policies, but the underlying point is it transfers free markets to statist management on a global scale not seen before. The ambition is for a few supranational organisations, not accountable to anybody, to act as an informal world government. It also accords fully with how central banks are likely to restructure their currencies

    Welcome to Dystopia.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Conclusion

    Failing monetary policies and the accelerated disposal of carbon-based in favour of carbon-neutral energy provide the foundations for a dystopian future. Together, they are excuses for yet greater inflationism and the rapid socialisation of national economies and private capital.

    Clearly, a number of supranational bodies expect to coordinate these policy areas above the heads of individual governments. A monetary reset will replace a failing dollar-based system, and failing economies will be boosted by state-directed green investment.

    Given that a significant cyclical credit and systemic crisis is overdue, its occurrence will have a major effect on how matters actually proceed. People who value individual freedom and privacy, those horrified by Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four and Hayek’s The Road to Serfdom, could find themselves wishing for an even more radical outcome: the complete destruction of the fiat currency system and of the whole statist command-and-control apparatus.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 23:45

  • Pentagon Official Warns China Exporting Killer AI Drones To Middle East
    Pentagon Official Warns China Exporting Killer AI Drones To Middle East

    US Defense Secretary Mark Esper warned during a speech on artificial intelligence at the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence public conference Tuesday (Nov. 05) that China is exporting a series of “next-generation drones” to countries in the Middle East, reported Flight Global.

    “Beijing has made it abundantly clear that it intends to be the world leader in AI by 2030,” Esper said. “While the US faces a mighty task in transitioning the world’s most advanced military to new AI-enabled systems, China believes it can leapfrog our current technology and go straight to the next generation.”

    Middle East countries banned from purchasing advanced US drones due to a weapons embargo are increasingly gravitating towards Chinese defense manufacturers.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The drone sales are supporting China’s expansion across the Middle East, which is home to many strategic US military bases, as well as, future and current routes for Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. 

    “As we speak the Chinese government is already exporting some of the most advanced military aerial drones to the Middle East, as it prepares to export its next-generation stealth UAVs when those come online,” Esper said. “Also, Chinese weapons manufacturers are selling drones advertised as capable of autonomy, including the ability to conduct lethal, targeted strikes.”

    China’s AI killing drones are more frequently ending up in the skies above Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Nigeria, Yemen, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Chinese drone exports to the region have risen in the last decade, cutting into the US’ market share, something that has angered the Pentagon.  

    Esper didn’t explicitly point out which AI killing drones were in question. However, the CASC Rainbow is the most popular Chinese drone that is currently being exported to the Middle East.

     


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 23:25

    Tags

  • East Germany Remains A Powerful Example Of What Happens After We "Smash Capitalism"
    East Germany Remains A Powerful Example Of What Happens After We "Smash Capitalism"

    Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

    This week marks the thirtieth anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Decades later, the wall remains a symbol of the violence employed by socialist states, and a reminder that the egalitarian workers’ paradise of East Germany was so hated by its residents that the state had to build a wall to keep residents in.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    It is ironic, then, that only a generation later, Americans are becoming increasingly enamored with socialism. According to a recent Gallup poll, 43 percent of Americans say socialism is a “good thing.” It’s unclear how many of those respondents can actually define socialism. Some believe socialism to simply be policies that promote equality. Others define it using the more historically orthodox view: government ownership of the means of production.

    There is no doubt, however, that a vocal and not-insignificant minority – of the sort represented by Jacobin magazine, for example – advocates for the total destruction of capitalism.

    When American democratic socialists who want to “smash capitalism” say they like “socialism,” of course, they are likely to add that they don’t want the sort of socialism they had in East Germany. They want kindly, happy, well-lit socialism. Not the gray, dour, socialism of the Eastern Bloc.

    I have no doubt this is indeed what they want, although that’s what the founders of East Germany and the Soviet Bloc thought they would get too. Many of them no doubt truly believed they were leading the way to a kinder, gentler, more equal society.

    After all, up until the 1980s, the socialists of the Eastern Bloc were still entertaining the idea that they could deliver a higher standard of living to ordinary people than could the “decadent” economies of the West.

    In 1959, of course, Richard Nixon and Nikita Khrushchev literally debated whether the West or the Communist world could deliver the best kitchen appliances to the general public.

    Obviously, the West won that debate, although many Western socialists failed to get the memo. Right up until the end (of the Soviet Bloc) the highly influential American economist Paul Samuelson maintained that communist economies worked perfectly well. As David Henderson noted in 2009:

    Samuelson had an amazingly tin ear about communism. As early as the 1960s, economist G. Warren Nutter at the University of Virginia had done empirical work showing that the much-vaunted economic growth in the Soviet Union was a myth. Samuelson did not pay attention. In the 1989 edition of his textbook, Samuelson and William Nordhaus wrote, “the Soviet economy is proof that, contrary to what many skeptics had earlier believed, a socialist command economy can function and even thrive.”

    As it turned out, the socialist economies — designed to deliver an easier life to consumers and workers — were really vehicles of impoverishment, not to mention environmental degradation.

    A Lasting Legacy of Poverty

    To this day — thirty years after re-unification — the standard of living is lower in the parts of Germany that were once part of East Germany. In 2014, for example, the Washington Post reported how East Germany has lower levels of disposable income, high unemployment rates, and is generally less prosperous. This in turn has led to the old East Germany having fewer young people, many of whom move west for better jobs. Fortune‘s Chris Matthews went on to observe “If you look at statistics such as per capita income or worker productivity, they also point to the large disparity in economic development between east and west.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    And Claudia Bracholdt further notes: “Today, Germany’s east has many structural problems similar to those of countries like Greece and Spain, though on a much smaller scale.”

    During the Cold War, numerous opponents of Communism pointed to Germany as the perfect example of how soviet-style communism destroyed economic prosperity. But that was then. Nowadays, the East German regime is gone, and Germany is, relatively speaking, one of the most market-oriented economies on earth. Eastern Germany shares a government with western Germany. So, why is eastern Germany still poor compared to its western German neighbors?

    The answer lies in the fact that even though the legal and political systems in eastern Germany are the same as in the West, the East suffers from the fact that it lost out on decades of capital accumulation and growth in worker productivity while under the boot of the Soviets.

    The German case offers the most excellent comparison of course, because prior to World War II, western and eastern Germans enjoyed similar political systems for many decades. Moreover, the western and eastern Germans were similar both ethnically and culturally. Thus, the comparison allows us to focus on regime differences in the age of the Cold War.

    We can look beyond just the East Germans as well. We might ask ourselves, for example, why Poland, with its Western orientation and long tradition of parliamentary and decentralized governments remains so relatively poor.

    The same might be said of the Czech Republic as well, where the principal city, Prague, was once the second city of the Austrian Empire and was a center of European wealth and culture. The Czechs too, have never regained their relative place in terms of European wealth.

    Part of the explanation lies in the fact that the legacy of an abandoned political system can live on for decades even after regime change. As Nicolás Cachanosky has observed in the context of South American regimes:

    Institutional changes … define the long-run destiny of a country, not its short-run prosperity. … For example, as China opened parts of its economy to international markets, the country started to grow, and we are now seeing the effects of decades of relative economic liberalization. It is true that many areas in China continue to lack significant freedoms, but it would be a much different China today had it refused to change its institutions decades ago.

    Clearly, the fact that the old Eastern Bloc countries have moved toward liberalization has set those countries on a path toward greater economic prosperity. That by itself, however, cannot put it on a par with countries that never suffered the effects of decades of communism.

    Smash Capitalism: And Replace it With What?

    The experience of the Eastern Bloc should serve to inoculate us against the idea that a market based system can be replaced wholesale, and that a decent standard of living can still be achieved.

    It is one thing to advocate for a five-percent increase in government spending on the pension system. It’s another to advocate for the nationalization of the banking sector or — even worse — expropriating every major industry. Yet, the smash-capitalism crowd thinks they want the latter.

    But the US isn’t as far from the socialist end of the spectrum as many think. After all, the United States is itself already far down the road of the typical Western welfare state. Contrary to the persistent myth that the United States is some sort of laissez-faire free-for-all, the US welfare state in terms of social spending is already comparable to that of Canada, Australia, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. If the Netherlands is “socialist,” then so is the United States.

    Yet we’re being told the US needs to just move a little more to left to be like its European “peers.” Except the US is already there. So how much further must it be moved in the direction of even more government control of its economy?

    The socialists give no answer beyond “we’ll let you know when we get there.”

    But it is not necessary to completely destroy capitalism to ensure a less prosperous future. That is, we need not become a clone a East Germany to share at least a share of its fate. Suffice it to say, the further a regime move in the direction of the “egalitarian” states of the old communist world, the worse the impoverishment will be.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 23:05

  • Mapping China's Global Debt-Serfdom-ification
    Mapping China's Global Debt-Serfdom-ification

    According to research recently published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, there are seven countries in the world whose external loan debt to China surpasses 25 percent of their GDP. Three (Djibouti, Niger and The Republic of the Congo) are located in Africa, while four (Kyrgyztan, Laos, Cambodia and the Maldives) are in Asia.

    Yet, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes, the world map of debt to China amassed through direct loans (excluding debt holdings and short-term trade debt) shows that a majority of countries heavily in debt to China are in Africa, but that Central Asia and Latin America follow close behind.

    Infographic: The Countries Most in Debt to China | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    While China’s overseas lending is coordinated by the country’s centralized government, it is often poorly documented, which the researchers of the paper were trying to change.

    They found that debt by direct loans started to grow immensely only around 2010 and that loans by China often come at higher rates and with shorter grace periods for the receiving country than comparable loans from the OECD or the World Bank.

    The authors also caution that countries heavily in debt to China are at risk of defaulting.

    In the 1970s, a lending boom which consisted of similar contracts offered by U.S., European and Japanese banks had led to this outcome for a number of developing countries which were trying to improve their infrastructure, according to the research.

    Meanwhile, external debt to China through portfolio holdings is concentrated in developed nations and passes the threshold of 10 percent of GDP for Germany and the Netherlands. It amounts to between 5 and 10 percent of GDP in the U.S., Canada, France, the UK and Australia.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 22:45

  • Three Deep State Confessions On Syria
    Three Deep State Confessions On Syria

    Authored by Brad Hoff via The Libertarian Institute,

    First, all the way back in 2005 — more than a half decade before the war began —  CNN’s Christiane Amanpour told Assad to his face that regime change is coming. Thankfully this was in a televised and archived interview, now for posterity to behold.

    Amanpour, it must be remembered, was married to former US Assistant Secretary of State James Rubin (until 2018), who further advised both President Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “Mr. President you know the rhetoric of regime change is headed towards you from the United States… They’re granting visas and visits to Syrian opposition politicians,” Amanpour told Assad in a 2005 CNN interview

    Next, a surprisingly blunt assessment of where Washington currently stands after eight years of the failed push to oust Assad and influence the final outcome of the war, from the very man who was among the early architects of America’s covert “arm the jihadists to topple the dictator” campaign.

    Myself and others long ago documented how former Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford worked with and funded a Free Syrian Army commander who led ISIS suicide bombers into the battlefield in 2013.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Amb. Ford has since admitted this much (that US proxy ‘rebels’ and ISIS worked together in the early years of the war), and now admits defeat in the below recent interview as perhaps a reborn ‘realist’.

    And finally, not everyone is as pessimistic on the continuing prospects for yet more US-led regime change future efforts as Robert Ford is above. Below is an astoundingly blunt articulation of the next disturbing phase of US efforts in Syria, from an October 31 conference at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

    “The panel featured the two co-chairs of the Syria Study Group, a bi-partisan working group appointed by Congress to draft a new US war plan for Syria,” The Grayzone’s Ben Norton wrote of the below clip:

    She made it a point to stress that this sovereign Syrian land “owned” by Washington also happened to be “resource-rich,” the “economic powerhouse of Syria, so where the hydrocarbons are… as well as the agricultural powerhouse.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    With images now circulating of Trump’s “secure the oil” policy in effect, which has served to at least force pro-interventionist warmongers to drop all high-minded humanitarian notions of “democracy promotion” and “freedom” and R2P doctrine as descriptive of US motives in Syria, the above blunt admissions of Dana Stroul, the Democratic co-chair of the Syria Study Group, are ghastly and chilling in terms of what’s next for the suffering population of Syria.

    We are “preventing reconstruction aid and technical expertise from going back into Syria,” she stressed in her statement. 

    America is not finished, apparently, and it’s likely to get a lot uglier than merely seizing the oil.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 22:25

    Tags

  • China Auto Sales Fall 6% In October As Global Auto Recession Shows No Signs Of Slowing
    China Auto Sales Fall 6% In October As Global Auto Recession Shows No Signs Of Slowing

    China has been spearheading the global recession in the automotive industry and, as one more month has come to pass, there are still no signs of the bleeding letting up.

    As the U.S. and China continue to grapple with solving “Phase 1” of the allegedly upcoming trade deal, pressure remains on the automobile industry globally. For October, China retail passenger vehicle sales were lower by 6% year over year to 1.87 million units, according to the Passenger Car Association. October SUV retail sales also fell 0.7% y/y to 853,130 units.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Additionally, individual OEM data for China for October has also started to trickle in. Names like Toyota, Nissan and Mazda all posted low single digit drops for the month, while Honda was able to squeeze out a positive month.

    Auto data aggregator Marklines reported:

    • Nissan announced on November 6 that it sold 139,064 units in October in China, reflecting a 2.1% y/y decrease in sales.
      • October sales of the 7th-generation Altima, Sylphy, Tiida, Qashqai and Kicks increased. Year-to-date (YTD) sales from January to October totaled 1,230,047 units, reflecting a 0.6% y/y decrease.
    • Toyota sold 131,700 units in October, reflecting a 2.9% y/y decrease.
      • YTD sales totaled 1,313,000 units, reflecting a 7.2% y/y increase.
    • Honda announced that its October sales were 147,716 units, reflecting a y/y increase of 6.5%.
      • Sales of the Accord, Crider, Vezel, Civic, CR-V and XR-V exceeded 10,000 units. The Civic topped 20,000 units in monthly sales for the fifth consecutive month from June to October. Sales of the Accord, Odyssey, CR-V, Inspire and Elysion, all of which are equipped with the SPORT HYBRID, a highly efficient double-motor hybrid power system, totaled 15,373 units. YTD sales totaled 1,271,286 units, reflecting a 15.2% y/y increase.
    • On November 6, Mazda announced that sales in October reached 19,882 units, reflecting a 9.1% y/y decrease. YTD sales totaled 181,624 units.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Meanwhile, to add insult to injury, China’s Passenger Car Association said on Friday that NEV deliveries fell for a fourth straight month, down 45% in October as a result of subsidy cuts occurring while the global consumer remains under pressure. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    China is considering cutting back on subsidies for electric vehicles, which have been the sole silver lining (if you can even call it that) over the last 12-18 months for the industry. The country has accounted for about half of the world’s sales of EVs and the last time the government cut subsidies, it triggered the first drop in EV sales on record.

    That drop could arguably come at the most devastating time for China and the rest of the global auto industry, should it happen now. 


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 22:05

  • America's Endless Wars: "At West Point, Graduation Day Felt More Like A Tragedy Than A Triumph"
    America's Endless Wars: "At West Point, Graduation Day Felt More Like A Tragedy Than A Triumph"

    Authored by US Army Major Danny Sjursen (ret.) via TheNation.com,

    Patches, pins, medals, and badges are the visible signs of an exclusive military culture, a silent language by which soldiers and officers judge each other’s experiences, accomplishments, and general worth. In July 2001, when I first walked through the gate of the US Military Academy at West Point at the ripe young age of 17, the “combat patch” on one’s right shoulder – evidence of a deployment with a specific unit – had more resonance than colorful medals like Ranger badges reflecting specific skills. Back then, before the 9/11 attacks ushered in a series of revenge wars “on terror,” the vast majority of officers stationed at West Point didn’t boast a right shoulder patch. Those who did were mostly veterans of modest combat in the first Gulf War of 1990–91. Nonetheless, even those officers were regarded by the likes of me as gods. After all, they’d seen “the elephant.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    We young cadets arrived then with far different expectations about Army life and our futures, ones that would prove incompatible with the realities of military service in a post-9/11 world. When my mother—as was mandatory for a 17-year-old—put her signature on my future Army career, I imagined a life of fancy uniforms; tough masculine training; and maybe, at worst, some photo opportunities during a safe, “peace-keeping” deployment in a place like Kosovo.

    Sure, the United States was then quietly starving hundreds of thousands of children with a crippling sanctions regime against autocrat Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, occasionally lobbing cruise missiles at “terrorist” encampments here or there, and garrisoning much of the globe. Still, the life of a conventional Army officer in the late 1990s did fit pretty closely with my high-school fantasies.

    You won’t be surprised to learn, however, that the world of future officers at the Academy irreparably changed when those towers collapsed in my home town of New York. By the following May, it wasn’t uncommon to overhear senior cadets on the phone with girlfriends or fiancées explaining that they were heading for war upon graduation.

    As a plebe (freshman), I still had years ahead in my West Point journey during which our world changed even more. Older cadets I’d known would soon be part of the invasion of Afghanistan. Drinking excessively at a New York Irish bar on St. Patrick’s Day in 2003, I watched in wonder as, on TV, US bombs and missiles rained down on Iraq as part of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s promised “shock and awe” campaign.

    Soon enough, the names of former cadets I knew well were being announced over the mess hall loudspeaker at breakfast. They’d been killed in Afghanistan or, more commonly, in Iraq.

    My greatest fear then, I’m embarrassed to admit, was that I’d miss the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It wasn’t long after my May 28, 2005, graduation that I’d serve in Baghdad. Later, I would be sent to Kandahar, Afghanistan. I buried eight young men under my direct command. Five died in combat; three took their own lives. After surviving the worst of it with my body (though not my mind) intact, I was offered a teaching position back at my alma mater.

    During my few years in the history department at West Point, I taught some 300 or more cadets. It was the best job I ever had.

    I think about them often, the ones I’m still in touch with and the majority whom I’ll never hear from or of again. Many graduated last year and are already out there carrying water for empire. The last batch will enter the regular Army next May. Recently, my mother asked me what I thought my former students were now doing or would be doing after graduation. I was taken aback and didn’t quite know how to answer.

    Wasting their time and their lives was, I suppose, what I wanted to say. But a more serious analysis, based on a survey of US Army missions in 2019 and bolstered by my communications with peers still in the service, leaves me with an even more disturbing answer. A new generation of West Point educated officers, graduating a decade and a half after me, faces potential tours of duty in… hmm, Afghanistan, Iraq, or other countries involved in the never-ending American war on terror, missions that will not make this country any safer or lead to “victory” of any sort, no matter how defined.

    A NEW GENERATION OF CADETS SERVING THE EMPIRE ABROAD

    West Point seniors (“first-class cadets”) choose their military specialties and their first duty-station locations in a manner reminiscent of the National Football League draft. This is unique to Academy grads and differs markedly from the more limited choices and options available to the 80 percent of officers commissioned through the Reserve Officers Training Corps (ROTC) or Officer Candidate School (OCS).

    Throughout the 47-month academy experience, West Pointers are ranked based on a combination of academic grades, physical fitness scores, and military-training evaluations. Then, on a booze-fueled, epic night, the cadets choose jobs in their assigned order of merit. Highly ranked seniors get to pick what are considered the most desirable jobs and duty locations (helicopter pilot, Hawaii). Bottom-feeding cadets choose from the remaining scraps (field artillery, Fort Sill, Oklahoma).

    In truth, though, it matters remarkably little which stateside or overseas base one first reports to. Within a year or two, most young lieutenants in today’s Army will serve in any number of diverse “contingency” deployments overseas. Some will indeed be in America’s mostly unsanctioned wars abroad, while others will straddle the line between combat and training in, say, “advise-and-assist” missions in Africa.

    Now, here’s the rub: Given the range of missions that my former students are sure to participate in, I can’t help but feel frustration. After all, it should be clear 18 years after the 9/11 attacks that almost none of those missions have a chance in hell of succeeding. Worse yet, the killing my beloved students might take part in (and the possibility of them being maimed or dying) won’t make America any safer or better. They are, in other words, doomed to repeat my own unfulfilling, damaging journey—in some cases, on the very same ground in Iraq and Afghanistan where I fought.

    Consider just a quick survey of some of the possible missions that await them. Some will head for Iraq—my first and formative war—though it’s unclear just what they’ll be expected to do there. ISIS has been attritted to a point where indigenous security forces could assumedly handle the ongoing low-intensity fight, though they will undoubtedly assist in that effort. What they can’t do is reform a corrupt, oppressive Shia-chauvinist sectarian government in Baghdad that guns down its own protesting people, repeating the very mistakes that fueled the rise of the Islamic State in the first place. Oh, and the Iraqi government, and a huge chunk of Iraqis as well, don’t want any more American troops in their country. But when has national sovereignty or popular demand stopped Washington before?

    Others are sure to join the thousands of servicemen still in Afghanistan in the 19th year of America’s longest ever war—and that’s even if you don’t count our first Afghan War (1979–89) in the mix. And keep in mind that most of the cadets-turned-officers I taught were born in 1998 or thereafter and so were all of three years old or younger when the Twin Towers crumbled.

    The first of our wars to come from that nightmare has always been unwinnable. All the Afghan metrics—the US military’s own “measures for success”—continue to trend badly, worse than ever in fact. The futility of the entire endeavor borders on the absurd. It makes me sad to think that my former officemate and fellow West Point history instructor, Mark, is once again over there. Along with just about every serving officer I’ve known, he would laugh if asked whether he could foresee—or even define—“victory” in that country. Take my word for it, after 18-plus years, whatever idealism might once have been in the Army has almost completely evaporated. Resignation is what remains among most of the officer corps. As for me, I’ll be left hoping against hope that someone I know or taught isn’t the last to die in that never-ending war from hell.

    My former cadets who ended up in armor (tanks and reconnaissance) or ventured into the Special Forces might now find themselves in Syria—the war President Trump “ended” by withdrawing American troops from that country, until, of course, almost as many of them were more or less instantly sent back in. Some of the armor officers among my students might even have the pleasure of indefinitely guarding that country’s oil fields, which—if the United States takes some of that liquid gold for itself—might just violate international law. But hey, what else is new?

    Still more—mostly intelligence officers, logisticians, and special operators—can expect to deploy to any one of the dozen or so West African or Horn of Africa countries that the US military now calls home. In the name of “advising and assisting” the local security forces of often autocratic African regimes, American troops still occasionally, if quietly, die in “non-combat” missions in places like Niger or Somalia.

    None of these combat operations have been approved, or even meaningfully debated, by Congress. But in the America of 2019 that doesn’t qualify as a problem. There are, however, problems of a more strategic variety. After all, it’s demonstrably clear that, since the founding of the US military’s Africa Command (AFRICOM) in 2008, violence on the continent has only increased, while Islamist terror and insurgent groups have proliferated in an exponential fashion. To be fair, though, such counter-productivity has been the name of the game in the “war on terror” since it began.

    Another group of new academy graduates will spend up to a year in Poland, Romania, or the Baltic states of Eastern Europe. There, they’ll ostensibly train the paltry armies of those relatively new NATO countries—added to the alliance in foolish violation of repeated American promises not to expand eastward as the Cold War ended. In reality, though, they’ll be serving as provocative “signals” to a supposedly expansionist Russia. With the Russian threat wildly exaggerated, just as it was in the Cold War era, the very presence of my Baltic-based former cadets will only heighten tensions between the two over-armed nuclear heavyweights. Such military missions are too big not to be provocative, but too small to survive a real (if essentially unimaginable) war.

    The intelligence officers among my cadets might, on the other hand, get the “honor” of helping the Saudi Air Force through intelligence-sharing to doom some Yemeni targets—often civilian—to oblivion thanks to US manufactured munitions. In other words, these young officers could be made complicit in what’s already the worst humanitarian disaster in the world.

    Other recent cadets of mine might even have the ignominious distinction of being part of military convoys driving along interstate highways to America’s southern border to emplace what President Trump has termed “beautiful” barbed wire there, while helping detain refugees of wars and disorder that Washington often helped to fuel.

    Yet other graduates may already have found themselves in the barren deserts of Saudi Arabia, since Trump has dispatched 3,000 US troops to that country in recent months. There, those young officers can expect to go full mercenary, since the president defended his deployment of those troops (plus two jet fighter squadrons and two batteries of Patriot missiles) by noting that the Saudis would “pay” for “our help.” Setting aside for the moment the fact that basing American troops near the Islamic holy cities of the Arabian Peninsula didn’t exactly end well the last time around—you undoubtedly remember a guy named bin Laden who protested that deployment so violently—the latest troop buildup in Saudi Arabia portends a disastrous future war with Iran.

    None of these potential tasks awaiting my former students is even remotely linked to the oath (to “support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic”) that newly commissioned officers swear on day one. They are instead all unconstitutional, ill-advised distractions that benefit mainly an entrenched national security state and the arms-makers that go with them. The tragedy is that a few of my beloved cadets with whom I once played touch football, who babysat my children, who shed tears of anxiety and fear during private lunches in my office might well sustain injuries that will last a lifetime or die in one of this country’s endless hegemonic wars.

    A NIGHTMARE COME TRUE

    This May, the last of the freshman cadets I once taught will graduate from the Academy. Commissioned that same afternoon as second lieutenants in the Army, they will head off to “serve” their country (and its imperial ambitions) across the wide expanse of the continental United States and a broader world peppered with American military bases. Given my own tortured path of dissent while in that military (and my relief on leaving it), knowing where they’re heading leaves me with a feeling of melancholy. In a sense, it represents the severing of my last tenuous connection with the institutions to which I dedicated my adult life.

    Though I was already skeptical and antiwar, I still imagined that teaching those cadets an alternative, more progressive version of our history would represent a last service to an Army I once unconditionally loved. My romantic hope was that I’d help develop future officers imbued with critical thinking and with the integrity to oppose unjust wars. It was a fantasy that helped me get up each morning, don a uniform, and do my job with competence and enthusiasm.

    Nevertheless, as my last semester as an assistant professor of history wound down, I felt a growing sense of dread. Partly it was the realization that I’d soon return to the decidedly unstimulating “real Army,” but it was more than that, too. I loved academia and “my” students, yet I also knew that I couldn’t save them. I knew that they were indeed doomed to take the same path I did.

    My last day in front of a class, I skipped the planned lesson and leveled with the young men and women seated before me. We discussed my own once bright, now troubled career and my struggles with my emotional health. We talked about the complexities, horror, and macabre humor of combat and they asked me blunt questions about what they could expect in their future as graduates. Then, in my last few minutes as a teacher, I broke down. I hadn’t planned this, nor could I control it.

    My greatest fear, I said, was that their budding young lives might closely track my own journey of disillusionment, emotional trauma, divorce, and moral injury. The thought that they would soon serve in the same pointless, horrifying wars, I told them, made me “want to puke in a trash bin.” The clock struck 1600 (4 pm), class time was up, yet not a single one of those stunned cadets—unsure undoubtedly of what to make of a superior officer’s streaming tears—moved for the door. I assured them that it was okay to leave, hugged each of them as they finally exited, and soon found myself disconcertingly alone. So I erased my chalkboards and also left.

    Three years have passed. About 130 students of mine graduated in May. My last group will pin on the gold bars of brand new army officers in late May 2020. I’m still in touch with several former cadets and, long after I did so, students of mine are now driving down the dusty lanes of Iraq or tramping the narrow footpaths of Afghanistan.

    My nightmare has come true.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 21:45

  • California's Housing Nightmare Is Only Getting Worse
    California's Housing Nightmare Is Only Getting Worse

    When historians look back on contemporary California, one thing they’ll be bound to make note of is that the state’s developers bet on the wrong model.

    Endless, suburban sprawl is coming back to haunt California in ways both major and minor. In densely populated communities across the state, traffic is horrible thanks to underdeveloped public transportation (this is especially true in LA). Most residents have accepted that deadly, devastating wildfires are just part of the deal now – bound to recur endlessly until the state’s population shrinks to the point that it no longer intermingles with the state’s vast swaths of woodland.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    But it’s not just the apocalyptic images of fiery doom that have some of the state’s residents rethinking their decision to settle in California. The wildfires have had all kinds of ancillary effects: In parts of the state, PG&E is essentially shutting down large portions of the power grid in disruptive distributed blackouts intended to lower the fire risk.

    Another impact has been the impact on California’s housing market. In a state where stiff regulations have strangled efforts to build more affordable housing, the median price or a house now tops out at around $600,000, more than twice the national level. The state has four of the five most expensive residential housing markets in the US – Silicon Valley, San Francisco, Orang County and San Diego (LA comes in 7th).

    When adjusted for cost of living, California’s poverty rate is the worst in the country. The state accounts for 12% of the US population, but houses a quarter of its homeless.

    For both owners and renters, Cali requires the highest share of household spending.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    As Bloomberg explains, the path to this point was paved with bad local policy decisions made by the unaccountable Democrats who have ran the state for decades. They include: Outdated zoning laws and tax laws that benefit longtime homeowners at the expense of everybody else.

    Earlier this week Apple announced that it would commit $2.5 billion to combat the housing crisis in California (a sum that seemed paltry compared to the immense value of the San Francisco real-estate market). Other tech giants who have long called the state home said they would pitch in to try and boost housing.

    And in many ways, the rest of the country is becoming more like California, not less. During the longest economic expansion on record, the US built far fewer homes than in the past.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The working poor have always struggled with home ownership, but in California, it’s a problem for the working class as well. In Silicon Valley, teachers are having such a hard time affording rents that Facebook just pledged $25 million to build subsidized apartments for them.

    Another Bay Area town decided to retrofit an old firehouse into barracks for its cops after they started taking turns sleeping in their cars.

    Even the relatively wealthy are considered “cost burdened” in California.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The so-called NIMBYs who remain firmly in control of most local governments in California are often anti-development, and successfully shut down housing developments under the guise of protecting the environment or preserving “neighborhood character.”

    Back in the 1970s, parts of the state were down-zoned, reducing the allowable population density, and encouraging sprawl.

    Then there’s Proposition 13, a measure approved in the late 1970s that limits property tax increases on properties until they’re sold, meaning millions of homeowners are paying taxes on far less than their property is worth. Meanwhile, a bill seeking to allow more development in areas near employment and transport hubs is struggling for support in the California legislature.

    At this point, the same unaccountable democrats who have long been beholden to the wealthy NIMBYs who dominate state politics will decide whether California changes its ways. But how much faith can we possibly place in them?


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 21:25

  • 4 Reasons Why Socialism Is Becoming More Popular
    4 Reasons Why Socialism Is Becoming More Popular

    Authored by Alexander Zubatov via The Mises Institute,

    The newfound openness of large numbers of Americans to socialism is, by now, a well-documented phenomenon. According to a Gallup poll from earlier this year, 43% of Americans now believe that some form of socialism would be good thing, in contrast to 51% who are still against it. A Harris poll found that four in ten Americans prefer socialism to capitalism. The trend is particular apparent in the young: another Gallup poll showed that as recently as 2010, 68% of people between 18 and 29 approved of capitalism, with only 51% approving of socialism, whereas in 2018, while the percentage among this age group favoring socialism was unchanged at 51%, those in favor of capitalism had dropped precipitously to 45%.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The same poll showed that among Democrats, the popularity of socialism now stands at 57%, while capitalism is only at 47%, a marked departure from 2010 when the two were tried at 53%. A YouGov poll from earlier this year showed that unlike older generations, which still preferred capitalist candidates, 70% of millennials and 64% of gen-Zers would vote for a socialist.

    The question is why socialism now? At a time when the American economy under Trump seems to be chugging along at a nice clip, why are so many hankering for an alternative? I would suggest four factors contributing to the situation.

    Factor #1: Ignorance of History

    The first cause of socialism’s popularity, especially among the young, is an obvious one: having grown up at a time after the end of the Cold War, the collapse of Europe’s Eastern Bloc and China’s transition to authoritarian capitalism, “these kids today” — those 18 to 29 year-olds who were born around the last decade of the 20th century — don’t know what socialism is all about. When they think socialism, they don’t think Stalin; they think Scandinavia.

    Americans’ — and especially young Americans’ — ignorance of history is well-documented and profound. As of 2018, only one in three Americans could pass a basic citizenship test , and of test-takers under the age of 45, that number dropped to 19%. That included such lowlights as having no clue why American colonists fought the British and believing that Dwight Eisenhower led the troops during the Civil War. Speaking of the war during which he actually led the troops, many millennials don’t know much about that one either. They don’t know what Auschwitz was (66% of millennials in particular could not identify it). Twenty-two percent of them had not heard of the Holocaust itself. The Battle of the Bulge? Forget it. Go back further in time, and the cluelessness just keeps deepening. Only 29% of seniors at U.S. News and World Report’s top 50 colleges in America — the precise demographic that purports to speak with authority about America’s alleged history of white supremacy — have any idea what Reconstruction was all about. Only 23% know who wrote the Constitution. So much for any notion that this is the most educated generation ever.

    Closer to the theme — socialism — the same compilation of survey results includes the attribution of The Communist Manifesto’s “from each according to his ability; to each according to his needs” to Thomas Paine, George Washington or Barrack Obama. Moreover, among college-aged Americans, though support for socialism is pretty high, when these same young adults are asked about their support for the actual definition of socialism — a government-managed economy — 72% turn out to be for a free-market economy and only 49% for the government-managed alternative (yes, it looks from those numbers like there are a lot of confused kids who are in favor of both of the mutually exclusive alternatives). As compared to about a third of Americans over 30, only 16% of millennials were able to define socialism, according to a 2010 CBS/New York Times poll. And though I haven’t seen polling on this, I’d be willing to bet that a good bunch of these same students, if asked to say what the Soviet Union was, would have no clue or peg it as some sort of vanquished competitor of Western Union.

    Compounding the problem still further is that the history that students are being taught increasingly falls into the category of “woke” history , America’s history of oppression as imagined by the influential revisionist socialist historian Howard Zinn . When socialists are writing our history books, the end result is preordained.

    Given such ignorance and systematic distortion of history, is it any surprise that millennials who never lived through very much of the 20 th century don’t think socialism is all that bad?

    Factor #2: Government Bungling

    When we try to explain the socialist urge, we cannot lose sight of the fact that our government keeps interfering in the economy in ways that give people every reason to think the system is corrupt and needs to be trashed.

    Take the skyrocketing cost of college, for instance. On the surface, this looks like greedy capitalist universities just keep on raising tuition, and since most college kids and their parents can’t pay the sticker price, almost 70% take out loans , saddling young people trying to start their careers with a mountain of debt (almost $30,000 on average). This results in all those socialist promises of free college or loan forgiveness sounding dandy. Underneath the surface, however, a huge part of the problem is federal grants and subsidized loans. If the government stopped footing a large part of their bill, more students and parents would be forced to pony up, which would mean, in turn, that colleges would not be able to keep hiking their prices without seeing a precipitous drop in enrollment. They would, instead, be forced to price themselves at some level that applicants could realistically pay, making college more affordable for a large segment of the American middle class.

    Another simple example of the problem is Obama’s Emergency Economy Stabilization Act of 2008, colloquially known as the big bank “Bailout.” When kids grow up seeing government tossing out free lifelines to businesses that get themselves in dire straits, cause a massive financial crisis and, in the process, lose ordinary folks lots of jobs and homes, we can’t blame them for concluding that the system is rigged.

    There are many more examples where these came from — our government frittering away trillions on foreign wars that increase instability throughout the world and end up costing us even more as we scramble to clean up our own messes is one expenditure that comes readily to mind — but the point is this: the more the government interferes in the economy to help out vested interests, the more reason many of us will see to ask government to interfere in the economy to help out the rest of us. The more reason we give anyone to think that capitalism means crony capitalism, the more they’ll clamor for socialism.

    Factor #3: Universities’ Ideological Monoculture

    The supporters of socialism are not simply the young, but rather, disproportionately those among the young who are college-educated. And the more college they have, the hotter for socialism they get. According to a 2015 poll , support for socialism grows from 48% among those with a high school diploma or less to 62% among college graduates to 78% among those with post-graduate degrees. Those on the left probably stop thinking hard about now and jump immediately to the conclusion that support for socialism is just a natural outgrowth of big brains and elite educations. But there is, in fact, a less obvious but ultimately far more compelling explanation that also manages to account for the general fact that more education correlates with more leftism: something — something bad — is happening at universities themselves to pull students toward the (far) left.

    We have already seen above that what’s not happening at universities, even elite universities, today is a whole lot of education in important subjects like history. What we are getting instead is a lot of groupthink and indoctrination. Universities have always skewed a bit left. But beginning in the early to mid 1990s (for reasons I’ve explained in some detail elsewhere ), ideological diversity began to vanish entirely, as the leftward deviation turned tidal. As documented in a 2005 paper from Stanley Rothman et al., as of 1984, 39% of university faculty were left/liberal, and 34% were right/conservative. By 1999, those numbers had undergone a seismic shift: faculty was now 72% left/liberal and 15% right/conservative. Since 1999, the imbalance has become starker still. A comprehensive National Association of Scholars report from April 2018 from Prof. Mitchell Langbert of Brooklyn College, tracking the political registrations of 8,688 tenure-track, Ph.D.-holding professors from 51 of U.S. News & World Report’s 66 top-ranked liberal arts colleges for 2017, found that “78.2 percent of the academic departments in [his] sample have either zero Republicans, or so few as to make no difference.” Predictably, given the composition of the professoriate, survey data also indicates that students’ political views drift further leftward between freshman and senior year.

    In light of this data, it should not be a surprise to us that students who have gone to college in this age of ideological extremism have come out radicalized and … socialized.

    Factor #4: Coddled Kids

    The young have always been more inclined to embrace pipe dreams — a lack of familiarity with the complicated way in which the world actually works, coupled with the college fix described above, will do that to most anyone — but there is a reason the mindset of today’s young’uns is particularly susceptible to the red menace. In last year’s The Coddling of the American Mind, the prominent social psychologist Jonathan Haidt and FIRE’s Greg Lukianoff describe the species of overprotective parenting and instilling of baseless and uncritical self-esteem by parents and educators alike that came to prevail as kids were growing up in the 90s and 00s. When we are raised in the belief we are wonderful just as we are, we never learn the critical life skills of self-soothing, working through anxiety, facing obstacles and overcoming adversity. The predictable result, as Haidt and Lukianoff observe, is a demand to be safeguarded — safe spaces, free speech crackdowns and so on. The state appears to many as the appropriate institution to provide this sort of “safety.”

    If these four are the primary causes of socialism’s rapid surge in our midst, then the next logical question is what to do about it.

    There is no easy answer, of course, but I would suggest that the radicalization of academia is the lynchpin issue. If we could succeed in reversing that tsunami, many dominoes would fall: we would be addressing the university monoculture that systematically distorts research, sends students veering hard left and graduates generations of left-orthodox clones who find their way into journalism, government, education, entertainment and other influential sectors driving public opinion and shaping the other three downstream issues factoring into socialism’s rise: government policy, educational philosophy and the manner in which history is taught. Many have observed that our universities are in crisis, but that crisis also represents an opportunity to avert the much larger socialist cataclysm that threatens to engulf us all.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 21:05

    Tags

  • Visualizing Walmart's Domination Of The US Grocery Market
    Visualizing Walmart's Domination Of The US Grocery Market

    One wouldn’t expect the grocery department of a big box retailer to spark debate, but, as Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley notes, Walmart’s high market concentration in the grocery space is doing just that.

    By now, Walmart’s rise to the top of the retail pyramid is well documented. The Supercenters that dot the American landscape have had a dramatic ripple effect on surrounding communities, often resulting in decreased competition and reduced selection for consumers. Today, in some communities, Walmart takes in a whopping $19 for every $20 spent on groceries.

    Today’s map, based on a report from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance, looks at which places in America are most reliant on Walmart to put food on the table.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The Weight of Walmart

    Walmart has an unprecedented amount of control over the food system, now capturing a quarter of every single dollar spent on groceries in the United States.

    Walmart isn’t just a major player — in some cases it’s become the only game in town. In a few of the communities listed in the report, Walmart commands a 90% market share and higher.

    Here’s a breakdown of the top 20 towns dominated by Walmart in America:

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    While it’s more likely for a small town to become dominated by a single grocer, Walmart’s clout isn’t exclusive to rural America. Even in Springfield, Missouri — with a regional population of half a million people — the big box retailer still boasts a sizable market share of 66%.

    Super Market Concentration

    Under guidelines established by the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division, markets in which one corporation captures more than 50% of revenue are defined as “highly concentrated.” Walmart’s market share meets or exceeds this measure in 43 metropolitan areas and 160 smaller markets around the United States.

    In some states, this trend is even more pronounced. In Oklahoma, for example, 86% of the state’s population lives in a region where Walmart has the majority market share in the grocery sector. In Arkansas — the home state of the megaretailer — half the population lives in this “highly concentrated” grocery market situation.

    This degree of market concentration means that a retailer could cut certain products or manipulate prices without fear of losing customers. Worse yet, a company could close up shop and leave thousands of people without adequate grocery access.

    An Interesting Caveat

    There is a flip side to this story, however.

    Walmart has shown a willingness to expand their grocery business to areas that were considered “food deserts” (i.e. low-income areas without easy access to a supermarket).

    In a 2011 initiative, the retailer committed to open or expand 1,500 supermarkets across America to help give more people access to fresh food.

    With the ground game clearly won, America’s largest grocer is now focused on dominating the next frontier of the grocery market – delivery. Stiff competition from companies like Amazon and Instacart will keep Walmart’s online market concentration in check for the time being.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 20:45

  • Nobel Prize Winner Suggests Blasting Nuclear Waste With Lasers
    Nobel Prize Winner Suggests Blasting Nuclear Waste With Lasers

    Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

    Many have made strong arguments for the potential of nuclear power to be the clean energy solution of the future. As the need to curb carbon emissions grows more dire, the ultra-efficient, zero-emissions energy provided by nuclear looks like a more and more obvious solution. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    There are some major drawbacks, however, to nuclear energy. Of course, there is the ever-present concern of a nuclear meltdown that has kept civilians and politicians alike extremely wary of widespread nuclear energy production in the wake of high-profile tragedies like those at Fukushima, Three Mile Island, and Chernobyl. While the death toll from nuclear disasters is actually quite low, the long-term damage from these tragedies endures. In Japan, the government has been using so much water to keep the reactors at Fukushima from overheating since the 2011 disaster that they have run out of space to store it and have even considered dumping the radioactive wastewater into the Pacific Ocean. As for Chernobyl, well…you’ve all seen the miniseries.

    And then there is the major issue of nuclear waste. As efficient and carbon-free as it is, nuclear power certainly isn’t the cleanest form of energy production, thanks to its extremely hazardous byproducts that can stay radioactive for millions of years. Making matters worse, there is still no scientific consensus on how to solve this issue. In the United States, the burden of paying to store and maintain nuclear waste deposits falls on the taxpayers, and the price tag is massive. As Oilprice reported last year in a report aptly titled “The Crushing Cost Of Nuclear Waste Is Weighing On Taxpayers,” keeping us safe from our own nuclear waste is extremely costly and will only grow more expensive the more waste we create. “Now, that price tag has reached a whopping $7.5 billion,” we reported, “and that number is only going to keep growing.” 

    But now, for the first time, there may be a solution to the previously unsolvable nuclear waste issue.

    Nobel laureate Gérard Mourou has proposed a novel solution that smacks of science fiction and revolves around blasting nuclear waste with lasers.

    Morou and his research partner Donna Strickland won their Nobel Prize in 2018 for their work with Chirped Pulse Amplification (CPA), a revolutionary invention that creates extremely rapid and ultra-powerful laser pulses with lots of different potential applications.

    “The original research focused on applications like laser machining and eye surgery,” reports ExtremeTech, “but scientists could also use it to observe atomic processes that happen at almost unfathomable speeds. If we could speed it up a bit more, Mourou says CPA could have a use in processing nuclear waste, too.”

    According to Mourou’s hypothesis, CPA could turn even the most nuclear waste we have sitting in secure storage facilities around the world, where it will otherwise remain radioactive for millions of years, into a substance so safe you could hold it in the palm of your hand. Of course, the CPA process will require a bit of tweaking to get to this point of capability.

    “Currently, CPA can produce laser pulses as brief as one attosecond — that’s a billionth of a billionth of a second. To transmute nuclear waste into something safe, Mourou says you’d need to increase the pulse rate by roughly 10,000 times,” says ExtremeTech.

    “That might sound like a tall order, but CPA itself was an order of magnitude increase over previous lasers. Another innovation like CPA, and we could be in the ballpark.”

    The method would work by blasting nuclear waste with a laser pulse so strong and fast that it could knock protons out of the nuclei of dangerous substances like uranium 235 and plutonium 239, rendering them harmless. If this technology, which other experts agree makes sense in theory, could actually be invented and applied in the next couple of decades, it would be difficult to overstate the impact it would have on our energy sector and, indeed, the entire world. In order to avoid the fast-approaching tipping point for catastrophic climate change, we need to decarbonize fast and starting right now. Solving the problem of nuclear waste would make that a whole lot safer and more attainable. 


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 20:25

  • Hong Kong Student Dies From Injuries In First Fatality Linked To Protests
    Hong Kong Student Dies From Injuries In First Fatality Linked To Protests

    In what appears to be the first death of a protester stemming from the aggressive police tactics, a young student has died after sustaining a serious head injury during a fall from the third floor of a car park to the second while police carried out an aggressive dispersion operation to end a protest

    According to the SCMP, Chow Tsz-lok, a second year computer science undergraduate student at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology fell from the car park in Tseung Kwan O as police fired off rounds of tear gas on Monday.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    After being sent to Queen Elizabeth Hospital early on Monday morning, the student had been in a coma for several days as the swelling from a head injury intensified. Two operations undertaken to save his life failed, and he died Friday morning after his condition took a turn for the worse late Thursday. A cause of death wasn’t given.

    At the time of death, sources said the pressure inside the victim’s skull had built up to five times normal levels because of the injuries.

    A statement by HKUST released on Friday urged students to “stay calm and exercise restraint during this difficult moment” and avoid “conflicts or even tragedies” – fearful that protesters might tear apart the campus after blaming police for Chow’s death. All classes will be cancelled Friday in honor of Chow.

    The university also repeated a warning for students to stay away from protests.

    Unfortunately, security camera footage released on Wednesday by Link Reit, the owner of the Sheung Tak Estate car park where Chow took his fatal spill, didn’t capture his fall, leaving the exact circumstances behind his death a mystery.

    The death occurred during the middle of end-of-semester graduation ceremonies for the university. During one graduation ceremony, some masters students wore black masks and held up their palms on stage – a gesture of support for the protest movement’s five demands.

    HKUST President Wei Shyy shed tears during a ceremony where they briefly honored Chow after his death.

    Another student who only gave his last name, Wong, told the SCMP that he was shocked by his fellow student’s death and said the graduation ceremonies should be cancelled: “It’s no longer a happy occasion for some graduates.”

    Even Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam offered her sympathies to Chow and his family, and said the case needed to be investigated.

    It’s still unclear whether the clashes between police and protesters had anything to do with Chow’s death. With no surveillance footage, it’s likely to remain a mystery.

    Still, protesters are already calling it the first fatality linked to the demonstrations (and the police response). That label looks likely to stick. And demonstrators are already calling for more rallies in retaliation for Chow’s death.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 20:05

  • Paul Craig Roberts: "A Successful Coup Against Trump Will Murder American Democracy"
    Paul Craig Roberts: "A Successful Coup Against Trump Will Murder American Democracy"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    President Trump calls it a witch hunt, but it really is a coup against American democracy. The Democrats who want Trump impeached don’t realize this. They just want Trump impeached because they don’t like him. The impeach Trump people don’t understand that if the coup against the elected president succeeds, every future president will know that if he attempts to “drain the swamp” or bring any changes not acceptable to the ruling elite, he, too, will be destroyed. Voters who want real change will also get the message and give up trying to elect a president or members of the House and Senate who will be responsive to voters. It will mean the end of democracy and accountable government. Unhindered rule by the Deep State and associated elites will take democracy’s place.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    It is unfortunate that progressives do not understand this. Progressives want real change and Trump impeached, but these desires are at variance with one another.

    Few, if any, of the impeach Trump crowd are paying any attention to the fabricated case against Trump that has taken the place of the Russiagate fabrication that failed. They could not care less what the case is or whether it is a fabrication. Dislike of Trump suffices.

    Nevertheless, let’s look at the fabricated case.

    First of all, the alleged whistleblower is not a legitimate whistleblower. He is Eric Ciaramella, a CIA officer with a second-hand complaint who met with House Intelligence (sic) chairman Adam Schiff a month ahead to orchestrate the event. Ciaramella served on Obama’s staff when VP Joe Biden was point man for Ukraine. Ciaramella also worked with CIA Director John Brennan, the architect of “Russiagate,” and with a Democratic National Committee operative who encouraged Ukraine officials to come up with dirt on President Trump.

    All of this and more has caused the “whistleblower” to withdraw from testifying.

    Desperate for a substitute, Democrats have come up with tainted career bureaucrats who favor military aid to Ukraine and a hard line toward Russia. Bill Taylor a US diplomat in Ukraine claims that Trump’s ambassador to the European Union, Gordon Sondland, said that US military aid to Ukraine was conditional on Ukraine reopening the government’s investigation into the Ukrainian company, Burisma, an investigation that VP Joe Biden had closed down. Burisma is the company that paid as much as $1.75 million to Biden and his son.

    Taylor claims that another bureaucrat, Tim Morrison, told him that Sondland communicated the “quid pro quo” to an aide to Zelensky.

    Sondland rejects the claims by Taylor and Morrison.

    A Ukrainian born rabid anti-Russian US Army officer serving on the National Security Council, Alexander Vindman, also offers two cents of unverified quid pro quo claims. Vindman’s motive seems to be that President Trump is inclined to follow a different policy toward Ukraine than Vindman prefers.

    This is the extent of the case against Trump. Amazingly weak considering that Ukrainian president Zelensky has stated publicly that there was no quid pro quo and that the released transcript of the Trump-Zelensky conversation shows no quid pro quo.

    Now for the issue of the alleged quid pro quo. It seems that everyone on both sides of the argument takes for granted without a second of thought that if there was a quid pro quo, there was an offense, possibly one sufficiently offensive to warrant impeachment. This is utter ignorant nonsense.

    Quid pro quos are endemic in US foreign policy and always have been. The US government offered Ecuador president Lenin Moreno a $4.2 billion IMF loan in exchange for revoking Julian Assange’s asylum. Moreno took the deal.

    Washington offered the Venezuelan military money to overthrow President Maduro. The military refused the offer.

    Dozens of examples come readily to mind. Research would produce enough to fill a book.

    What do you think the sanctions are that the US president places on countries? They are punishments that Washington imposes for not accepting Washington’s deal.

    As for a quid pro quo deal between the US executive branch and president of Ukraine, we have VP Joe Biden’s boast that he got the Ukrainian prosecutor fired who was investigating corruption in the firm that had purchased US protection by putting Biden’s son, Hunter, on Burisma’s board. Joe Biden brags in front of the Council on Foreign Relations that he gave the Ukrainian president 6 hours to fire the prosecutor or forfeit $1 billion in US aid. 

    As Biden was US Vice President at the time and is currently the leading Democratic candidate for the US presidential nomination, he is clearly guilty of what Trump is accused. Why is only Trump subject to investigation? If an offense that is merely suspected or alleged suffices for impeaching a president, why isn’t a known and admitted and bragged about offense reason to disqualify Biden from being president?

    One would think that a question this obvious would be the topic of debate. But not a word from the presstitutes, Democrats, or Republicans.

    Finally, there is the question of the whistleblower law. If this interpretation sent to me by a reliable source is correct, there is no basis in law for the alleged whistleblower complaint.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 19:45

    Tags

  • "Clients With Guns" Are Demanding Deposits From Crisis-Stricken Lebanese Banks
    "Clients With Guns" Are Demanding Deposits From Crisis-Stricken Lebanese Banks

    Here we go as predicted: the Lebanese central bank attempts to prevent a “panic mode” scramble on the part of the public to remove all deposits, and the recently imposed (unofficial) regulations geared toward staving off capital flight are predictably failing fast, per Reuters

    Clients with guns have entered banks and security guards have been afraid to speak to them as when people are in a state like this you don’t know how people will act.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    People queue outside a bank in Sidon, Lebanon the prior Friday, Nov. 1 via Reuters/Daily Sabah

    Lebanon’s private banks reopened a week ago on Friday following a two-week closure due to massive anti-government protests which created gridlock across the country’s main cities, including closure of other public institutions such as schools. 

    The Nov. 1 bank re-openings followed Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s resignation last week, which the some one million demonstrators flooding Lebanon’s streets since early last month have touted as a ‘success’; however, the economy remains on the brink of collapse, given growing fears of a major run on the banks.

    Since reopening banks have blocked most transfers abroad and maintained tight controls over hard-currency withdrawals, policies which have led to reports of threats against bank staff. Some of these heated encounters are being filmed and posted to the internet. Likely the situation is about to become explosive into next week after the banks close for the weekend. 

    “This is our money!… We can’t get our money – you have money in the banks and you’re not giving it to the people! You’re stealing from us!” (our translation) the man in the below video shouts inside his bank. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Chaotic scenes played out from the moment the banks reopened, as Lebanon’s Daily Sabah described

    Large queues starting forming outside banks from early morning and people rushed in as soon as doors opened to cash in their salaries and make transfers.

    Tellers struggled to handle the flood of customers trying to cram inside bank branches, as queues spilt onto the streets.

    And now with the situation getting increasingly dangerous, the crisis could be compounded given bank staff are pondering a strike amid the broader protests still underway, and which have been raging for over the past month

    Bank staff are considering going on strike, he said.

    Clients are becoming very aggressive; the situation is very critical and our colleagues cannot continue under the current circumstances,” added Hajj, whose union has around 11,000 members, just under half of the total banking staff.

    “Anything that touches the liquidity of the bank is being restricted,” one Lebanese banker told Reuters.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Fights and riots have been reported both inside and outside commercial banks. Tellers and managers have reported being assaulted as exasperated customers demand their money:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The World Bank weighed in on Friday, urging leaders in Beirut to form new Cabinet within a week, citing risks to Lebanon’s stability as “deeply concerning,” according to the AP. 

    Given the country’s high unemployment and extreme lack of confidence in the Lebanese Lira, citizens are understandably enraged at not accessing their dollars, and are apparently now taking matters into their own hands

    Some banks have lowered the cap on maximum withdrawals from dollar accounts this week, according to customers and bank employees. At least one bank cut credit card limits from $10,000 to $1,000 this week, customers said.

    …One bank told a customer that a weekly withdrawal cap of $2,500 had been slashed to $1,500.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Vandalized ATM machine in Lebanon’s northern port city of Tripoli this week, via Middle East Online. 

    The massive anti-government protests, focused in large part on rooting out endemic corruption, comes after Lebanon has in recent years suffered a severe slowdown in capital flows, and difficulty of importers securing dollars at the pegged exchange rate, as well as periodic collapse of public services – due to frequent strikes, work stoppages, and lack of public funding.

    The tiny Middle East country currently has a crippling debt of $86 billion – roughly 150% of the gross domestic product – and some 80% of that debt is believed owed either to the central bank or to Lebanese commercial banks.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 19:32

  • Bloomberg Officially Files Paperwork For 2020 Presidential Primary
    Bloomberg Officially Files Paperwork For 2020 Presidential Primary

    As was first reported yesterday, late on Friday former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg officially filed as a candidate for the Alabama Democratic presidential primary, entering a White House run that is sure to shake up the already-crowded 2020 field.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    At 4:35pm, the Alabama Democratic Party updated its website to indicate that Bloomberg had filed the necessary documents ahead of the state’s registration deadline on Friday. The southern state has the earliest deadline in the country, Nov. 8, for candidates to qualify for the primary ballot, forcing Mr. Bloomberg to put his name into contention this week if he did not want to get shut out of the ballot.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Bloomberg said in March that he would not run for president but warned that the ultimate Democratic nominee should not take progressive policy positions that would “drag the party to an extreme that would diminish our chances in the general election.” Yet as the Hill notes, speculation had swirled that Bloomberg was reconsidering his decision especially after Joe Biden started trailing Liz Warren badly in the polls, and was behind Bernie Sanders in fundraising.

    With his late entry and a personal fortune of $53.4 billion according to Forbes, Bloomberg could jolt the Democratic primary race, hurting the chances of other centrist candidates such as Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg. While Bloomberg has not made a final decision to run, his allies say he intends to enter the race and his early moves have rippled through the rest of the Democratic field.

    Predictably, Bloomberg’s decision has raised alarm among supporters of former VP Joseph R. Biden who is presently the leading centrist in the race, and prompted accusations from Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders that Bloomberg is going to try to buy the presidency.

    The former mayor would also enter the race as the top target for progressives such as Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, two outspoken, progressive liberals who have argued the rich hold too much sway in U.S. politics and have unveiled a litany of plans hinged on raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans.

    “The wealthy and well connected are scared,” Warren’s campaign said in an email to supporters as news broke that Bloomberg was considering a run. “They’re scared that under a Warren presidency, they would no longer have a government that caters to their every need. So they’re doing whatever they can to try to stop Elizabeth and our movement from winning in 2020 and bringing big, structural change in 2021.”

    In perhaps the strongest sign yet that his candidacy would scramble the existing race, the NYT reports that Bloomberg has decided that if he seeks the Democratic nomination, he would stake his candidacy on big, delegate-rich states like California and Texas, which vote somewhat later in the calendar, rather than trying to catch up with his rivals in the circuit of traditional early states.

    “We now need to finish the job and ensure that Trump is defeated — but Mike is increasingly concerned that the current field of candidates is not well positioned to do that,” Howard Wolfson, a close adviser to Bloomberg, tweeted on Thursday. He added that “based on his record of accomplishment, leadership and his ability to bring people together to drive change, Mike would be able to take the fight to Trump and win.”

    If Bloomberg proceeds with such a campaign, he would be attempting to take a high-risk route to the Democratic nomination unprecedented in modern presidential politics — one that shuns the town hall meetings and door-to-door campaigning that characterizes states like Iowa and New Hampshire, and relies instead on a sustained and costly campaign of paid advertising and canvassing on a grand scale.

    In short, he would try to buy the presidency, and he won’t even have to promise every American a Bloomberg terminal.

    Such an approach would amount to a bet that no other candidate emerges from that early-state circuit with the kind of momentum that could overwhelm whatever operation Bloomberg has built in the Super Tuesday states that vote in early March. It would also likely enrage Democratic Party leaders in the early states, several of which are key battlegrounds in the general election, and intensify complaints from Bloomberg’s opponents about his reliance on personal wealth.

    Still, it may be just what centrist Democrats want: Bloomberg will enter the race looking to become the candidate for swaths of Democratic voters who fear that progressive policies will prove too liberal in key swing states that President Trump won in 2016.

    A New York Times/Siena College poll released Friday found that a majority of Democrats surveyed in six battleground states — Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — prefer a more centrist-minded candidate who promises to find common ground with Republicans.

    And yet despite virtually unlimited funds, and having a firm lane in which to run, Bloomberg’s path to the 2020 nomination will be far from easy.

    Bloomberg’s potential bid drew immediate criticism that he was just another wealthy businessman trying to buy an election.

    Bloomberg will face questions about his record as a three-term mayor of New York, particularly from the Democratic Party’s vocal progressive wing, and about why he is needed in a race that still has 17 candidates vying to challenge Republican President Donald Trump in November 2020. 

    “There is no constituency for Michael Bloomberg that isn’t already taken by one of the candidates who are already running,” said Charles Chamberlain, chair of the Vermont-based progressive group Democracy for America.

    He will also face criticism for New York’s implementation of “stop and frisk,” a policy that allowed police to stop and search people on the street that was decried as racist for overwhelmingly targeting black men. African-American voters are a critical Democratic voting bloc. Bloomberg has also been panned for attempting to ban sodas sold in cups larger than 16 ounces, a proposal that drew national criticism for supporting a “nanny state” that was ultimately struck down by New York courts.

    But Bloomberg is skeptical that any of the current candidates can beat Trump, according to a spokesman. It also suggests that Bloomberg is skeptical the attempt to impeach Trump will prove successful.

    Which is why Bloomberg’s entry into the race may have been the best news Trump has received in recent months.

    Meanwhile, opinion polls show three contenders battling at the top of the Democratic race: U.S. Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who lead the progressive wing, and moderate Joe Biden, the former vice president. On online betting websites, Bloomberg is also trailing, and after an initial burst on Thursday, he has stabilized in 5th place, just after Bernie Sanders.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Bloomberg has been critical of Warren and her desire to institute a tax on the super-wealthy, which she would use to fund programs ranging from universal healthcare to free college tuition. Biden, meanwhile, has turned in uneven debate performances and lagged behind his top rivals in fundraising. Bloomberg would likely seek to appeal to the same moderate voters drawn to Biden.

    “It’s almost like he’s running because this billionaire wants to stop Elizabeth Warren,” Brad Bannon, a Democratic strategist who advises progressive groups and labor unions, said of Bloomberg. “It’s lousy for Joe Biden but great for Elizabeth Warren.”

    And Donald Trump, of course.

    Public opinion polls show most Democrats do not share Bloomberg’s dissatisfaction with the contenders. A Monmouth University poll taken in late October and early November found three-fourths of Democrats were satisfied with their choice of candidates and just 16% wanted someone else.

    Then there is his age: Bloomberg, the CEO and founder of Bloomberg LP, would be the second-oldest candidate among the Democrats in a race where age has been an issue. Sanders, who took time off the campaign trail after a heart attack, is 78. Biden is 76, and Warren is 70. Trump is 73.

    Bloomberg also will face questions about his decision to run for New York mayor in 2001 as a Republican. He switched to independent before he ran for a third term in 2009. In 2018, while weighing whether to run for president, he switched his party registration again and became a Democrat.

    After leaving office, he emerged as one of the strongest supporters of gun-control measures, pouring millions of dollars into advocacy groups that push for measures to ban the sale of some guns and make it harder to purchase others.

    And while he is a staunch environmentalist, Bloomberg is a helicopter-flying fanatic who also owns several private jets. In October 2004, officials with the Meadowlands Sports Complex denied Mr. Bloomberg’s request to fly his helicopter to a Jets game and encouraged him to take the bus from the Port Authority Bus Terminal. In January 2002, when he was criticized for taking the controls of a police helicopter to attend Adolfo Carrión Jr.’s inauguration as borough president in the Bronx, he defended himself, saying, “I fly helicopters more sophisticated than that all the time that I happen to own.”

    Of course, having enough money to buy his own polling company, Bloomberg is aware of all these shortcomings and yet he still appears eager to run.

    Bloomberg is seen as considering skipping the early primary and caucus states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina, to focus instead on Super Tuesday as he builds out his campaign infrastructure. However, Democrats in those states still hope to hear from Bloomberg.

    New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley and Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Troy Price issued a rare joint statement on Friday pushing Bloomberg to visit their states if he mounts a presidential bid.

    “We are excited that this Democratic presidential nomination contest has so many qualified candidates who all have plans to grow our economy, make quality health care more accessible, and make college more affordable, and we are certain that Granite Staters, Iowans, and other early state voters are eager to ask Michael Bloomberg about his plans to move our states and our country forward,” Buckley and Price said. “We hope that they will have that opportunity.”

    “It’s going to be difficult, but we’ve never really seen a candidate with this amount of resources at his disposal. That could perhaps make up for a lot of groundwork and a lot of time here,” said veteran Iowa Democratic operative Grant Woodard, an aide to Hillary Clinton in 2008.

    “A lot of people here haven’t made up their minds,” he added. “There could still be an opening for him.”

    Who knows, perhaps in this age of billionaires, the US presidency really does end up going to the highest bidder.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Come November 2020, will those photo showcase three US presidents?


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 19:28

    Tags

  • Harvard Wants Students To Bone Up On Oral And Anal Sex, Stop Judging Fatties
    Harvard Wants Students To Bone Up On Oral And Anal Sex, Stop Judging Fatties

    Authored by Brittany Slaughter via The College Fix blog,

    Annual, student-led Sex Week tradition returns to Ivy League institution

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    “Anal Sex 101,” “Oral Sex 101” and “fatphobia” workshop are among 13 different offerings students at Harvard University have the option of attending as part of its annual Sex Week.

    Harvard Sex Week launched Nov. 4 and runs through Nov. 10.

    The workshops are organized by the student organization Sexual Health Education and Advocacy Throughout Harvard. Its members did not respond to repeated requests for comment. A Harvard spokesperson also declined comment.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Since 2012, SHEATH has hosted Harvard Sex Week every fall, according to its website.

    “Sex Week intends to both educate and advocate, providing a platform for self-exploration and community dialogue,” it states. “We intend to promote a week of programming that is interdisciplinary, thought-provoking, scholastic, innovative, and applicable to student experiences in order to promote a more holistic understanding of sex and sexuality.”

    This year, Sex Week kicked off with “Sticky: A (Self) Love Story” and “Feel Those Good Vibrations: Sex Toys 101.” On Tuesday students were offered a sex education class as well as “What What in the Butt?: Anal Sex 101.”

    On Wednesday a “Tantric Sex 101” workshop was followed by a panel on racial preferences and dating. Thursday brought an STD panel and reproductive justice workshop to campus.

    On today’s docket are panels on BGLTQ and intimacy. This weekend will offer “Body Positivity: Fatphobia and Liberation,” “Getting A-Head in Life: Oral Sex 101” and a “sexy trivia” game, according to the schedule.

    Throughout the week, student organizers dole out various free sex toy swag to attendees, as the week is sponsored by 20 different companies involved in the sex-pleasure industry. Online, the companies sell various products, such as vibrators, anal plugs, specialized condoms, testicle stretchers, strap ons, ankle restraints and other items.

    On-campus sponsors include Queer Students and Allies, Harvard College Women’s Center, Office of BGLTQ Student Life, Office of Sexual Assault Prevention and Response, Harvard College Reproductive Justice Action and several other campus groups.

    While organizers of Sex Week do not appear interested in discussing their programming, The College Fix reached out to renown author and cultural critic Mary Eberstadt to weigh in.

    Eberstadt is author of the recently published book Primal Screams: How the Sexual Revolution Created Identity Politics.

    Harvard Sex Week is corporate exploitation at its sleaziest. Students should be protesting this cynical attempt to pick their pockets and degrade their romances — not lining up for instruction about practices that will land some in the emergency clinic,” she said in an email to The College Fix.

    It’s especially ironic that Sex Week gets Harvard’s imprimatur even as some of the men of #MeToo are appearing in courts. Sex Week promotes the same deformed view of the human person that led such men to harassment and assault in the first place: one dominated by pornographic narratives according to which human beings are always and everywhere available for any sexual permutation, no matter how problematic to their psyches or inimical to their health,” she said.

    “It’s past time for these travesties to be shut down — and for the corporate sponsors of this toxic worldview to be ostracized like any other companies promoting public harm.”


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 19:05

    Tags

  • Brazil's Leftist Icon Lula Freed From Federal Prison After Supreme Court Ruling
    Brazil's Leftist Icon Lula Freed From Federal Prison After Supreme Court Ruling

    Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, was ordered released from prison on Friday, after the Supreme Court ruled on Thursday to end mandatory imprisonment for convicts who lose their first appeal. 

    Lula, a celebrated leftist icon in Latin America, was freed after a year-and-a-half behind bars due to what his supporters say was a “politically motivated” prosecution from the right-wing government. 

    He had been sentenced to a total of eight years and 10 months after being convicted of taking bribes from engineering firms as part of the sweeping anti-corruption “Car Wash” investigation. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Via Lula.com.br/Ricardo Stuckert

    At the time police said they had evidence he benefited from a kick-back scheme at state oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras), receiving payments and luxury real estate. A police statement had alleged, “Ex-president Lula, besides being party leader, was the one ultimately responsible for the decision on who would be the directors at Petrobras and was one of the main beneficiaries of these crimes.” 

    Lula walked out of federal police headquarters in the southern city of Curitiba after the shock announcement of his release Friday to cheers from a large crowd of supporters, who were mostly wearing and carrying signs in the characteristic Workers’ Party red. 

    “You don’t know how much you represent me,” the former Brazilian president told the jubilant crowd.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Supporters claim as evidence that Lula was “set up” the fact that the very former federal judge who spearheaded the Car Wash investigations which convicted Lula has quickly advanced in Bolsonaro’s administration, as Reuters observes:

    Lula and his supporters have also criticized the fact that Sergio Moro, a former federal judge who oversaw the Car Wash probe and convicted Lula, accepted an invitation to become the justice minister of far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, a longtime foe of Lula and key rival in last year’s election.

    Journalist Glenn Greenwald, who lives in Brazil, tweeted, “An extraordinary day in Brazil – for the world, given Lula’s stature.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In his remarks upon emerging from federal prison, Lula further addressed the crowd of supporters saying,  “They did not imprison a man.” And added, “They wanted to kill an idea. And ideas are not killed.”

    * * * 

    Meanwhile, look who else was ecstatic over the news. “Truth Triumphed in Brazil!” Maduro tweeted as congratulations. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 18:45

    Tags

  • Pat Buchanan: "Will 'Sexist' White Males Derail Warren?"
    Pat Buchanan: "Will 'Sexist' White Males Derail Warren?"

    Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

    After celebrating Tuesday’s takeover of Virginia’s legislature and the Kentucky governorship, the liberal establishment appears poised to crush its biggest threat: the surging candidacy of Elizabeth Warren.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    From the tempo and tenor of the attacks, establishment fears of Warren’s success are real — and understandably so.

    Two Wednesday polls show Warren running even with Joe Biden nationally. And a new Iowa poll shows Warren in front of the field with 20%, and Biden falling into fourth place with 15%.

    [ZH: The money bets tell a different story however]

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Source: Bloomberg

    The danger for Democrats: While Warren is now the party’s front-runner, they fear she’s a sure loser to Donald Trump in 2020.

    And, again, with reason. A recent poll of six battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan, showed Trump beating or tying Warren in all of them except for Arizona.

    Nightmare scenario: Warren wins the nomination, but when her neo-Marxist agenda is exposed, Middle America recoils in horror.

    The economic elite is already sounding the alarm.

    Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase says Warren “vilifies successful people.” Microsoft founder Bill Gates says her proposals would imperil “innovation” and “capital formation.”

    Writing in The New York Times, Obama adviser Steven Rattner describes a Warren presidency as “a terrifying prospect.”

    Warren would “extend the reach and weight of the federal government far further into the economy than anything even Franklin Roosevelt dreamed of (and) … turn America’s uniquely successful public-private relationship into a dirigiste European-style system.”

    “If you want to live in France” — where half the GDP is controlled by the regime — says Rattner, “Warren should be your candidate.”

    What finally shocked anti-Warren liberals into action was her recent revelation of how she intends to pay for her “Medicare for all” plan.

    Warren’s plan would require at least $23 trillion more in federal spending over a decade. Other experts say the added costs could run to $32 trillion, raising the U.S. government’s share of the GDP by one-half and abolishing the private health insurance plans of 156 million Americans.

    “Many of America’s global champions, like banks and tech giants, would be dismembered,” writes Rattner, “Shale fracking would be banned, which would send oil and natural gas prices soaring and cost millions of Americans their jobs.”

    Beyond “Medicare for All,” Warren has other plans. Universal child care and free schooling from pre-kindergarten through college and the cancelation of student loans, plus a new look at reparations for slavery.

    How would President Warren pay for all her “plans”?

    She would raise the corporate rate to 35% from 21%, and slam a 40% tax on the profits of companies that try to flee the country.

    She would raise the capital gains tax, impose new estate taxes, raise Social Security taxes on folks with higher incomes, and confiscate 2% of the wealth of those with $50 million in assets and 3% of the wealth of those with $1 billion, every year.

    Writes Politifact:

    “All told, we counted $7 trillion in new spending over a 10-year period, and that’s without Medicare for All. On the flip side, Warren offered specific tax proposals that came to $4.55 trillion.”

    Still, Warren’s socialism is not what her main rivals, all white men, are zeroing in on. They’ve decided to play hardball.

    Thursday, under a headline, “Warren Faces Accusations that She’s ‘Angry,’ Which Supporters Say is Sexist,” The Washington Post reported:

    “Two of the leading male candidates in the Democratic presidential primary race — Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg — have escalated separate lines of attack as they attempt to counter the field’s most prominent woman: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is antagonistic and angry.”

    Warren has a “my way or the highway” approach, said Buttigieg, she is “so absorbed in the fighting that it is as though fighting were the purpose.”

    Biden says Warren, who has a real shot at taking the nomination, reflects “an angry unyielding viewpoint that has crept into our politics.”

    This is “treacherous,” warns the Post, “given that many Democrats remain upset over what they view as the sexist treatment of Hillary Clinton, the party’s last nominee.”

    The Democratic Party today defines itself as an inclusive party of women, gays, Hispanics, African Americans and other people of color.

    Yet three months out from the decisive early contests of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, the party is going into the semifinals of its contest for a leader and future president without a single person of color in the final four.

    Moreover, the three white males are denigrating and piling on the woman who is the front-runner with attacks on her personality for which conservatives, if they used such tactics, would be charged with “dog-whistling” the white working class.

    When one looks at the approval-disapproval rating of the president, re-election appears problematic. When one looks at the Democrats’ agenda and field of candidates, the odds of Trump’s re-election seem a good deal better.

    This thing is by no means over.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 18:25

    Tags

  • Moodys Downgrades UK Outlook To Negative On "Brexit Paralysis"
    Moodys Downgrades UK Outlook To Negative On "Brexit Paralysis"

    Moody’s downgraded its outlook on Britain’s debt (currently rated Aa2) to negative from stable after the market close on Friday, saying Brexit had been a catalyst for an erosion in the country’s institutional strength, perceived “material deterioration” in UK governance, and that the country’s ability to set policy has weakened in the Brexit era along with its commitment to fiscal discipline.

    The outlook cut represents a catch down to its competitors: the UK is currently rated AA by S&P and AA- at Fitch Ratings, with both companies having the UK on negative watch.

    “It would be optimistic to assume that the previously cohesive, predictable approach to legislation and policymaking in the UK will return once Brexit is no longer a contentious issue, however that is achieved,” the ratings agency said adding that “the increasing inertia and, at times, paralysis that has characterized the Brexit-era policymaking process has illustrated how the capability and predictability that has traditionally distinguished the U.K.’s institutional framework has diminished.”

    “The decline in institutional strength appears to Moody’s to be structural in nature and likely to survive Brexit given the deep divisions within society and the country’s political landscape,” Moody’s added.

    The decision to put the UK on negative outlook even as Moody’s affirmed Britain’s Aa2 long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings comes one month before an election that is likely to determine the future of Brexit. While the election will have a big impact on Brexit, this week has seen both sides escalate their spending pledges, drawing election battle lines with plans to end a decade of U.K. austerity.

    As Bloomberg observes, there hasn’t been a U.K. downgrade by a major rating company since September 2017, when Moody’s downgraded the UK to Aa2, the country’s lowest ever rating .

    Upon the announcement, the pound dipped 10 pips from 1.2784 to 1.2774.

    The full Moody’s statement is below:

    Moody’s changes outlook on UK’s rating to negative from stable, affirms Aa2 rating

    Paris, November 08, 2019 — Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”) has today changed the outlook on the Government of the United Kingdom’s Aa2 ratings to negative from stable. Concurrently, Moody’s has affirmed the Aa2 long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings.

    The outlook on the Bank of England’s Aa2 issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings and the (P)Aa2 on its senior unsecured MTN programme has also changed to negative from stable; the Aa2 and (P)Aa2 ratings have been affirmed. The short-term issuer ratings have been affirmed at Prime-1.

    The change in outlook to negative from stable is driven by two factors:

    1. UK institutions have weakened as they have struggled to cope with the magnitude of policy challenges that they currently face, including those that relate to fiscal policy.

    2. The UK’s economic and fiscal strength are likely to be weaker going forward and more susceptible to shocks than previously assumed.

    The affirmation of the UK’s Aa2 sovereign ratings balances the credit-supportive factors such as wealth, economic diversification, a sound monetary policy framework and a highly flexible labour market against constraints such as a high debt burden and weak productivity growth.

    The foreign and local currency bond ceilings and the local-currency deposit ceiling remain unchanged at Aaa. The foreign-currency long-term deposit ceiling remains Aa2, and the short-term foreign-currency bond and bank deposit country ceilings remain at P-1.

    RATINGS RATIONALE

    RATIONALE FOR NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

    FIRST DRIVER: UK INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY AND COMMITMENT TO FISCAL DISCIPLINE HAVE WEAKENED

    The increasing inertia and, at times, paralysis that has characterized the Brexit-era policymaking process has illustrated how the capability and predictability that has traditionally distinguished the UK’s institutional framework has diminished. Events in the House of Commons in recent months have revealed legislators, policymakers and administrators to be unable to arrive at the consensus needed to achieve either a broadly acceptable approach to Brexit, or the continuation of policy in other important areas, for example to address challenges relating to education, productivity, or investment in infrastructure.

    Brexit has been the catalyst for this erosion in institutional strength, which can also be seen in, among other things, the small but significant weakening of Worldwide Governance Indicators for Government Effectiveness and Rule of Law. It is likely to remain so for some time to come given the inevitably contentious nature of the negotiations regarding a permanent set of trading arrangements with the EU. And it would be optimistic to assume that the previously cohesive, predictable approach to legislation and policymaking in the UK will return once Brexit is no longer a contentious issue, however that is achieved. The decline in institutional strength appears to Moody’s to be structural in nature and likely to survive Brexit given the deep divisions within society and the country’s political landscape.

    This broad erosion in the predictability and cohesion of policymaking is mirrored in areas of policy that are significant from a credit perspective. Most importantly, the UK’s broad fiscal framework, characterized by features such as multi-year budget plans and more detailed revenue and spending decisions announced for the outer years of the planning period, has weakened. Following the significant fiscal consolidation that took place between 2010 and 2015, more recent years have seen an increasing willingness to move the goalposts, with changes to the longer-term fiscal anchor and the definition of fiscal targets and a revealed preference to shift the fiscal tightening to outer years of a five-year horizon. Successive governments have announced large, permanent increases in public expenditures, most notably a large increase in spending on the National Health Service (NHS), outside the normal calendar for fiscal policy changes and without detailed policy plans.

    Over the longer term, institutional weakening may also impact the UK’s economic strength, through its effect on the investment climate and on the UK’s attractiveness to skilled and unskilled foreign labour. In recent years, we have already seen the negative impact this can have, and Moody’s expects this negative influence will likely endure as the exit process continues and uncertainties persist during the subsequent phase of trade negotiations with the EU and with other nations.
    This deterioration in the quality of institutions has made policy planning more opaque and unpredictable. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has noted that policy risks to the public finances are now significant and are greater than they were two years ago. Going forward, no matter what the outcome is of the general election Moody’s sees widespread political pressures for higher expenditures with no clear plan to increase revenues to finance this spending. In Moody’s view, the commitment to maintaining a predictable, prudent fiscal framework and associated policy settings that has characterized the UK’s credit profile until now is weakening in a way that will transcend electoral cycles as pressures from the electorate for improved public services continue to rise.

    SECOND DRIVER: A LIKELY DETERIORATION IN FISCAL AND ECONOMIC STRENGTH

    The weakening of the fiscal policy environment is evident in the data. Even after years of fiscal consolidation, the country remains highly indebted, with gross general government debt being only marginally below its 2015 peak of 86.9% of GDP, and unlikely to fall significantly over the medium term. In Moody’s baseline projections, the UK’s general government debt is set to stay broadly unchanged at around 85% of GDP over the next 3-4 years, absent any unexpected economic shocks. While that is a lower level than assumed when Moody’s downgraded the UK’s rating to Aa2 in September 2017, the trajectory has changed. Then, Moody’s expected a gradual decline in the debt burden over the longer term. Now, Moody’s sees little appetite or opportunity for that to happen.

    Indeed, the risks are that debt will begin to rise. In the current political climate, Moody’s sees no meaningful pressure for debt-reducing fiscal policies. In fact, there is rising pressure for spending increases with little apparent clarity as yet on how they might be financed through additional revenues and little scope for politically acceptable expenditure cuts. While greater public investment could be growth-enhancing, there is no appetite to address important areas of rigidity in public expenditure, particularly health and social care, which will be key sources of future financial pressure. In June 2018, the government pledged real annual increases on average of 3.4% for the NHS for the next five years. Even that expenditure increase may not be sufficient to achieve the longer-term objective of improving standards. In recent years, the government has consistently had to accommodate higher spending by the NHS, and the OBR projects that health spending will nearly double as a proportion of GDP over the coming decades.

    The large and sticky debt burden is a key source of fragility for the UK’s credit profile, particularly at the current juncture, when external threats to growth are rising and internal growth momentum is slowing.

    The magnitude of the fiscal challenge may well be amplified by weaker-than-expected growth. Since the EU referendum, UK business investment (which accounts for more than half of gross fixed capital formation) has contracted by more than 1% in real terms, in contrast to the growth that Moody’s has observed in other advanced economies. This shortfall does not just affect current growth rates. The persistent weakness of business investment, combined with firms’ bias towards hiring as a more flexible way to increase capacity, has resulted in limited capital deepening–a trend that will further intensify the UK’s existing productivity challenges over the longer term. The UK economy has already experienced low productivity growth since the global financial crisis, compared to previous cycles and also other advanced economies.

    This weakness in investment has taken place despite broadly favourable credit conditions and limited spare capacity. It is unlikely to reverse quickly; Brexit-related uncertainty as to future policy settings and the UK’s relationship with trading partners is unlikely to diminish much even in the event that a deal is struck, given the significant challenges it is now clear will be inherent in agreeing any sort of longer-term trade agreement with the EU. Even if the UK leaves the EU under the terms of a revised Withdrawal Agreement, the two sides will still have to go through difficult and lengthy negotiations around the terms of their future relationship. Negotiations with other key trading partners are unlikely to be any more straightforward.

    These trends leave the UK more vulnerable to shocks, and the debt burden is sensitive to both growth and fiscal shocks. A deterioration in growth and the fiscal performance as well as a rise in interest rates or inflation would cause the debt burden to rise not fall. In Moody’s view, adverse fiscal outcomes would have the most impact, followed by a reduction in growth.

    RATIONALE FOR AFFIRMATION OF Aa2 RATINGS

    The factors supporting the affirmation of the UK’s Aa2 sovereign rating include economy’s significant strength, which is a function of its large size, diversification, and flexibility. The government also enjoys very low financing risks and a very high average debt maturity. While the UK’s institutions have weakened, in part due to the serious challenges raised by Brexit, they remain strong in comparison to global peers and the monetary policy framework and central banking arrangements continue to be excellent.

    ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS

    Moody’s takes account of the impact of environmental (E), social (S), and governance (G) factors when assessing sovereign issuers’ economic, institutional and fiscal strength and their susceptibility to event risk. In the case of the UK, the materiality of ESG to the credit profile is as follows.

    Environmental considerations are not currently material to the rating.

    Social factors are taken into account in determining the UK’s credit profile. The most relevant social factors relate to spending pressures on healthcare and pensions due to an ageing population. Over the longer term, demographic pressures will (as in many peers) negatively influence potential growth in the absence of increases in productivity, in participation rates or in immigration.

    Governance factors are a material driver of the rating. On a global basis, the UK’s governance institutions are strong, supporting the Aa2 rating for now. However, the deterioration observed in recent years is a key driver for the negative outlook.

    WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN

    The UK’s rating would likely be downgraded if we were to conclude that policymakers’ capacity and appetite to develop a credible medium-term debt-reduction strategy was low. This would be particularly negative for the UK’s credit quality if, in our view, that reflected a continued overall erosion in the coherence and predictability of UK policymaking. Structurally weaker economic fundamentals would also undermine the UK’s credit profile. In that context, departure from the EU without a deal would be strongly negative for the rating. However, even if some form of withdrawal agreement were to be signed, indications that the UK would not be able to replace the very favourable trading arrangements embedded in EU membership with similarly advantageous agreements with key trading partners in Europe and elsewhere would also be negative for the rating.

    Given the negative outlook on the UK’s rating, an upgrade is unlikely in the short to medium term. However, indications that the apparent erosion in institutional strength is in fact reversible and that the coming years will see a reversion to the capability and predictability that has traditionally characterized the UK’s institutional framework would support the rating at its current level. Such an outcome would most likely be characterised by the development of a credible strategy to achieve medium-term fiscal objectives that put the debt burden on a downward trajectory. Passage of economic policies that could sustainably boost growth potential would also be credit positive.


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 11/08/2019 – 18:09

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 8th November 2019

  • A New Kind Of Tyranny: The Global State's War On Those Who Speak Truth To Power
    A New Kind Of Tyranny: The Global State's War On Those Who Speak Truth To Power

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    What happens to Julian Assange and to Chelsea Manning is meant to intimidate us, to frighten us into silence. By defending Julian Assange, we defend our most sacred rights. Speak up now or wake up one morning to the silence of a new kind of tyranny. The choice is ours.”

    – John Pilger, investigative journalist

    All of us are in danger.

    In an age of prosecutions for thought crimes, pre-crime deterrence programs, and government agencies that operate like organized crime syndicates, there is a new kind of tyranny being imposed on those who dare to expose the crimes of the Deep State, whose reach has gone global.

    The Deep State has embarked on a ruthless, take-no-prisoners, all-out assault on truth-tellers.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Activists, journalists and whistleblowers alike are being terrorized, traumatized, tortured and subjected to the fear-inducing, mind-altering, soul-destroying, smash-your-face-in tactics employed by the superpowers-that-be.

    Take Julian Assange, for example.

    Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks—a website that published secret information, news leaks, and classified media from anonymous sources—was arrested on April 11, 2019, on charges of helping U.S. Army intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning access and leak more than 700,000 classified military documents that portray the U.S. government and its military as reckless, irresponsible and responsible for thousands of civilian deaths.

    Included among the leaked Manning material were the Collateral Murder video (April 2010), the Afghanistan war logs (July 2010), the Iraq war logs (October 2010), a quarter of a million diplomatic cables (November 2010), and the Guantánamo files (April 2011).

    The Collateral Murder leak included gunsight video footage from two U.S. AH-64 Apache helicopters engaged in a series of air-to-ground attacks while air crew laughed at some of the casualties. Among the casualties were two Reuters correspondents who were gunned down after their cameras were mistaken for weapons and a driver who stopped to help one of the journalists. The driver’s two children, who happened to be in the van at the time it was fired upon by U.S. forces, suffered serious injuries.

    This is morally wrong.

    It shouldn’t matter which nation is responsible for these atrocities: there is no defense for such evil perpetrated in the name of profit margins and war profiteering.

    In true Orwellian fashion, however, the government would have us believe that it is Assange and Manning who are the real criminals for daring to expose the war machine’s seedy underbelly.

    Since his April 2019 arrest, Assange has been locked up in a maximum-security British prison—in solitary confinement for up to 23 hours a day—pending extradition to the U.S., where if convicted, he could be sentenced to 175 years in prison.

    Whatever is being done to Assange behind those prison walls—psychological torture, forced drugging, prolonged isolation, intimidation, surveillance—it’s wearing him down.

    In court appearances, the 48-year-old Assange appears disoriented, haggard and zombie-like.

    “In 20 years of work with victims of war, violence and political persecution I have never seen a group of democratic States ganging up to deliberately isolate, demonise and abuse a single individual for such a long time and with so little regard for human dignity and the rule of law,” declared Nils Melzer, the UN special rapporteur on torture.

    It’s not just Assange who is being made to suffer, however.

    Manning, who was jailed for seven years from 2010 to 2017 for leaking classified documents to Wikileaks, was arrested in March 2019 for refusing to testify before a grand jury about Assange, placed in solitary confinement for almost a month, and then sentenced to remain in jail either until she agrees to testify or until the grand jury’s 18-month term expires.

    Federal judge Anthony J. Trenga of the Eastern District of Virginia also fined Manning $500 for every day she remained in custody after 30 days, and $1,000 for every day she remains in custody after 60 days, a chilling—and financially crippling—example of the government’s heavy-handed efforts to weaponize fines and jail terms as a means of forcing dissidents to fall in line.

    This is how the police state deals with those who challenge its chokehold on power.

    Make no mistake: the government is waging war on journalists and whistleblowers for disclosing information relating to government misconduct that is within the public’s right to know.

    Yet while this targeted campaign—aided, abetted and advanced by the Deep State’s international alliances—is unfolding during President Trump’s watch, it began with the Obama Administration’s decision to revive the antiquated, hundred-year-old Espionage Act, which was intended to punish government spies, and instead use it to prosecute government whistleblowers.

    Unfortunately, the Trump Administration has not merely continued the Obama Administration’s attack on whistleblowers. It has injected this war on truth-tellers and truth-seekers with steroids and let it loose on the First Amendment.

    In May 2019, Trump’s Justice Department issued a sweeping new “superseding” secret indictment of Assange—hinged on the Espionage Act—that empowers the government to determine what counts as legitimate journalism and criminalize the rest, not to mention giving “the government license to criminally punish journalists it does not like, based on antipathy, vague standards, and subjective judgments.”

    Noting that the indictment signaled grave dangers for freedom of the press in general, media lawyer Theodore J. Boutrous, Jr., warned, “The indictment would criminalize the encouragement of leaks of newsworthy classified information, criminalize the acceptance of such information, and criminalize publication of it.”

    Boutrous continues:

    [I]t doesn’t matter whether you think Assange is a journalist, or whether WikiLeaks is a news organization. The theory that animates the indictment targets the very essence of journalistic activity: the gathering and dissemination of information that the government wants to keep secret. You don’t have to like Assange or endorse what he and WikiLeaks have done over the years to recognize that this indictment sets an ominous precedent and threatens basic First Amendment values…. With only modest tweaking, the very same theory could be invoked to prosecute journalists for the very same crimes being alleged against Assange, simply for doing their jobs of scrutinizing the government and reporting the news to the American people.

    We desperately need greater scrutiny and transparency, not less.

    Indeed, transparency is one of those things the shadow government fears the most. Why? Because it might arouse the distracted American populace to actually exercise their rights and resist the tyranny that is inexorably asphyxiating their freedoms.

    This need to shed light on government actions—to make the obscure, least transparent reaches of government accessible and accountable—was a common theme for Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis, who famously coined the phrase, “Sunlight is the best disinfectant.”

    Writing in January 1884, Brandeis explained:

    Light is the only thing that can sweeten our political atmosphere—light thrown upon every detail of administration in the departments; light diffused through every policy; light blazed full upon every feature of legislation; light that can penetrate every recess or corner in which any intrigue might hide; light that will open up to view the innermost chambers of government, drive away all darkness from the treasury vaults; illuminate foreign correspondence; explore national dockyards; search out the obscurities of Indian affairs; display the workings of justice; exhibit the management of the army; play upon the sails of the navy; and follow the distribution of the mails.

    Of course, transparency is futile without a populace that is informed, engaged and prepared to hold the government accountable to abiding by the rule of law.

    For this reason, it is vital that citizens have the right to criticize the government without fear.

    After all, we’re citizens, not subjects. For those who don’t fully understand the distinction between the two and why transparency is so vital to a healthy constitutional government, Manning explains it well:

    When freedom of information and transparency are stifled, then bad decisions are often made and heartbreaking tragedies occur – too often on a breathtaking scale that can leave societies wondering: how did this happen? … I believe that when the public lacks even the most fundamental access to what its governments and militaries are doing in their names, then they cease to be involved in the act of citizenship. There is a bright distinction between citizens, who have rights and privileges protected by the state, and subjects, who are under the complete control and authority of the state.

    Manning goes on to suggest that the U.S. “needs legislation to protect the public’s right to free speech and a free press, to protect it from the actions of the executive branch and to promote the integrity and transparency of the US government.”

    Technically, we’ve already got such legislation on the books: the First Amendment.

    The First Amendment gives the citizenry the right to speak freely, protest peacefully, expose government wrongdoing, and criticize the government without fear of arrest, isolation or any of the other punishments that have been meted out to whistleblowers such as Edwards Snowden, Assange and Manning.

    The challenge is holding the government accountable to obeying the law.

    Almost 50 years ago, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in United States v. Washington Post Co. to block the Nixon Administration’s attempts to use claims of national security to prevent The Washington Post and The New York Times from publishing secret Pentagon papers on how America went to war in Vietnam.

    As Justice William O. Douglas remarked on the ruling, “The press was protected so that it could bare the secrets of government and inform the people. Only a free and unrestrained press can effectively expose deception in government. And paramount among the responsibilities of a free press is the duty to prevent any part of the government from deceiving the people and sending them off to distant lands to die of foreign fevers and foreign shot and shell.”

    Almost 50 years later, with Assange being cast as the poster boy for treason, we’re witnessing yet another showdown, which pits the people’s right to know about government misconduct against the might of the military industrial complex.

    Yet this isn’t merely about whether whistleblowers and journalists are part of a protected class under the Constitution. It’s a debate over how long “we the people” will remain a protected class under the Constitution.

    Following the current downward trajectory, it won’t be long before anyone who believes in holding the government accountable is labeled an “extremist,” is relegated to an underclass that doesn’t fit in, must be watched all the time, and is rounded up when the government deems it necessary.

    Eventually, we will all be potential suspects, terrorists and lawbreakers in the eyes of the government

    Partisan politics have no place in this debate: Americans of all stripes would do well to remember that those who question the motives of government provide a necessary counterpoint to those who would blindly follow where politicians choose to lead.

    We don’t have to agree with every criticism of the government, but we must defend the rights of all individuals to speak freely without fear of punishment or threat of banishment.

    Never forget: what the architects of the police state want are submissive, compliant, cooperative, obedient, meek citizens who don’t talk back, don’t challenge government authority, don’t speak out against government misconduct, and don’t step out of line.

    What the First Amendment protects—and a healthy constitutional republic requires—are citizens who routinely exercise their right to speak truth to power.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, the right to speak out against government wrongdoing is the quintessential freedom.

    Be warned: this quintessential freedom won’t be much good to anyone if the government makes good on its promise to make an example of Assange as a warning to other journalists intent on helping whistleblowers disclose government corruption.

    Once again, we find ourselves reliving George Orwell’s 1984, which portrayed in chilling detail how totalitarian governments employ the power of language to manipulate the masses.

    In Orwell’s dystopian vision of the future, Big Brother does away with all undesirable and unnecessary words and meanings, even going so far as to routinely rewrite history and punish “thoughtcrimes.”

    Much like today’s social media censors and pre-crime police departments, Orwell’s Thought Police serve as the eyes and ears of Big Brother, while the other government agencies peddle in economic affairs (rationing and starvation), law and order (torture and brainwashing), and news, entertainment, education and art (propaganda).

    Orwell’s Big Brother relies on Newspeak to eliminate undesirable words, strip such words as remained of unorthodox meanings and make independent, non-government-approved thought altogether unnecessary.

    Where we stand now is at the juncture of OldSpeak (where words have meanings, and ideas can be dangerous) and Newspeak (where only that which is “safe” and “accepted” by the majority is permitted). The power elite has made their intentions clear: they will pursue and prosecute any and all words, thoughts and expressions that challenge their authority.

    This is the final link in the police state chain.

    Having been reduced to a cowering citizenry—mute in the face of elected officials who refuse to represent us, helpless in the face of police brutality, powerless in the face of militarized tactics and technology that treat us like enemy combatants on a battlefield, and naked in the face of government surveillance that sees and hears all—our backs are to the walls.

    From this point on, we have only two options: go down fighting, or capitulate and betray our loved ones, our friends and ourselves by insisting that, as a brainwashed Winston Smith does at the end of Orwell’s 1984, yes, 2+2 does equal 5.

    As George Orwell recognized, “In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 23:45

    Tags

  • Putin Touts Laser Systems & Futuristic Arms To Be Deployed By Military
    Putin Touts Laser Systems & Futuristic Arms To Be Deployed By Military

    Perhaps trying to keep up with the Pentagon’s own developing ‘Laser Weapon System’ program, President Vladimir Putin this week touted that Russia is out front in terms of the next futuristic arms race, including “Hypersonic, laser and other state-of-the-art weapon systems”.

    At a meeting of military commanders at the Kremlin on Wednesday, Putin boasted that “Hypersonic, laser and other state-of-the-art weapon systems, which no other country possesses, will be put in service,” but also added that such advanced technology is “no excuse for Russia to threaten anybody”.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    File image of a Lockheed Martin Laser weapon system. 

    “On the contrary, we are ready to do everything in our power to promote the disarmament process in view of our latest weapon systems, which are developed with the sole purpose of guaranteeing security in the face of growing threats we face,” Putin explained

    The comments come after multiple statements out of both Washington and Moscow over the past two years hyping each’s ‘hypersonic weapons’ research and capabilities. 

    However, as US state-funded Voice of America noted mockingly, “Hardly a day goes by now without some announcement from the Kremlin of a test firing of this or that new missile, a military exercise here or there or the launching of a new warship or development of a fresh weapon system.”

    The US Marine Corps has of late reportedly been field testing a new laser weapon system designed to blast enemy drones out of the sky. Silent, invisible and precise  the new Compact Laser Weapons System (CLaWS) is said to be a directed energy weapon approved by the Pentagon for use by combat personnel.

    Within the past half-decade the Pentagon has developed a powerful ship-mounted Laser weapon system capable of downing projectiles flying nearby. 

    Both the US and Russian navies are already in possession of ship-mounted laser devices believed capable of shooting drones or other small aircraft from the sky

    However, some defense tech analysis reports have questioned the ultimate power and effectiveness of experimental laser weapons, which require an immense amount of energy to power. 


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 23:25

  • Deep State On The National Security Council: Colonel Vindman Is An "Expert" With An Agenda
    Deep State On The National Security Council: Colonel Vindman Is An "Expert" With An Agenda

    Authored by Philip Giraldi via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The current frenzy to impeach President Donald Trump sometimes in its haste reveals that which could easily be hidden about the operation of the Deep State inside the federal government. Congress is currently obtaining testimony from a parade of witnesses to or participants in what will inevitably be called UkraineGate, an investigation into whether Trump inappropriately sought a political quid pro quo from Ukrainian leaders in exchange for a military assistance package.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The prepared opening statement by Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, described as the top Ukraine expert on the National Security Council (NSC), provides some insights into how decision making at the NSC actually works. Vindman was born in Ukraine but emigrated to the United States with his family at age three. He was commissioned as an army infantry officer in 1998 and served in some capacity in Iraq from 2004-5, where he was wounded by a roadside bomb and received a purple heart. Vindman, who speaks both Ukrainian and Russian fluently, has filled a number of diplomatic and military positions in government dealing with Eastern Europe, to include a key role in Pentagon planning on how to deal with Russia.

    Vindman, Ukrainian both by birth and culturally, clearly was a major player in articulating and managing US policy towards that country, but that is not really what his role on the NSC should have been. As more than likely the US government’s sole genuine Ukrainian expert, he should have become a source of viable options that the United States might exercise vis-à-vis its relationship with Ukraine, and, by extension, regarding Moscow’s involvement with Kiev. But that is not how his statement, which advocates for a specific policy, reads. Rather than providing expert advice, Vindman was concerned chiefly because arming Ukraine was not proceeding quickly enough to suit him, an extremely risky policy which has already created serious problems with a much more important Russia.

    Vindman apparently sees Ukraine-Russia through the established optic provided by the Deep State, which considers global conflict as the price to pay for maintaining its largesse from the US taxpayer. Continuous warfare is its only business product, which explains in part its dislike of Donald Trump as he has several times threatened to upset the apple cart, even though he has done precious little in reality. Part of Vindman’s written statement (my emphasis) is revealing: “”When I joined the NSC in July 2018, I began implementing the administration’s policy on Ukraine. In the Spring of 2019, I became aware of outside influencers promoting a false narrative of Ukraine inconsistent with the consensus views of the interagency. This narrative was harmful to US government policy. While my interagency colleagues and I were becoming increasingly optimistic on Ukraine’s prospects, this alternative narrative undermined US government efforts to expand cooperation with Ukraine.”

    Alexander Vindman clearly was pushing a policy that might be described as that of the Deep State rather than responding to his own chain of command where it is the president who does the decision making. He also needs a history lesson about what has gone on in his country of birth. President Barack Obama conspired with his own version of Macbeth’s three witches – Rice, Power and Jarett – to overthrow the legitimate government of Ukraine in 2014 because it was considered to be too close to Moscow. The regime change was brought about by “mavericks” like the foul-mouthed neocon State Department officer Victoria Nuland and the footloose warmonger Senator John McCain. Vice President Joe Biden also appeared on the scene after the “wetwork” was done, with his son Hunter trailing behind him. Since that time, Ukraine has had a succession of increasingly corrupt puppet governments propped up by billions in foreign aid. It is now per capita the poorest country in Europe.

    Washington inside-the-beltway and the Deep State choose to blame the mess in Ukraine on Russian President Vladimir Putin and the established narrative also makes the absurd claim that the political situation in Kiev is somehow important to US national security. The preferred solution is to provide still more money, which feeds the corruption and enables the Ukrainians to attack the Russians.

    Colonel Vindman, who reported to noted hater of all things Russian Fiona Hill, who in turn reported to By Jingo We’ll Go To War John Bolton, was in the middle of all the schemes to bring down Russia. His concern was not really over Trump vs. Biden. It was focused instead on speeding up the $380 million in military assistance, to include offensive weapons, that was in the pipeline for Kiev. And assuming that the Ukrainians could actually learn how to use the weapons, the objective was to punish the Russians and prolong the conflict in Donbas for no reason at all that makes any sense.

    Note the following additional excerpt from Vindman’s prepared statement: “….I was worried about the implications for the US government’s support of Ukraine…. I realized that if Ukraine pursued an investigation into the Bidens and Burisma, it would likely be interpreted as a partisan play which would undoubtedly result in Ukraine losing the bipartisan support it has thus far maintained.”

    Vindman’s concern is all about Ukraine without any explanation of why the United States would benefit from bilking the taxpayer to support a foreign deadbeat one more time. One wonders if Vindman was able to compose his statement without a snicker or two intruding. He does eventually go on to cover the always essential national security angle, claiming that “Since 2008, Russia has manifested an overtly aggressive foreign policy, leveraging military power and employing hybrid warfare to achieve its objectives of regional hegemony and global influence. Absent a deterrent to dissuade Russia from such aggression, there is an increased risk of further confrontations with the West. In this situation, a strong and independent Ukraine is critical to US national security interests because Ukraine is a frontline state and a bulwark against Russian aggression.”

    The combined visions of Russia as an aggressive, expansionistic power coupled with the brave Ukrainians serving as a bastion of freedom is so absurd that it is hardly worth countering. Russia’s economy is about the size of Italy’s or Spain’s limiting its imperial ambitions, if they actually exist. Its alleged transgressions against Georgia and Ukraine were both provoked by the United States meddling in Eastern Europe, something that it had pledged not to do after the Soviet Union collapsed. Ukraine is less an important American ally than a welfare case, and no one knows that better than Vindman, but he is really speaking to his masters in the US Establishment when he repeats the conventional arguments.

    It hardly seems possible, but Vindman then goes on to dig himself into a still deeper hole through his statement’s praise of the train wreck that is Ukraine. He writes “In spite of being under assault from Russia for more than five years, Ukraine has taken major steps towards integrating with the West. The US government policy community’s view is that the election of President Volodymyr Zelensky and the promise of reforms to eliminate corruption will lock in Ukraine’s Western-leaning trajectory, and allow Ukraine to realize its dream of a vibrant democracy and economic prosperity. The United States and Ukraine are and must remain strategic partners, working together to realize the shared vision of a stable, prosperous, and democratic Ukraine that is integrated into the Euro-Atlantic community.”

    Alexander Vindman does not say or write that the incorporation of Ukraine into NATO is his actual objective, but his comments about “integrating with the West” and the “Euro-Atlantic community” clearly imply just that. The expansion of NATO up to Russia’s borders by the rascally Bill Clinton constituted one of the truly most momentous lost foreign policy opportunities of the twentieth century. The addition of Ukraine and Georgia to the alliance would magnify that error as both are vital national security interests for Moscow given their history and geography. Vindman should be regarded as a manifestation of the Deep State thinking that has brought so much grief to the United States over the past twenty years. Seen in that light, his testimony, wrapped in an air of sanctimoniousness and a uniform, should be regarded as little more than the conventional thinking that has produced foreign policy failure after failure.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 23:05

    Tags

  • Retailers Scramble For Promotions To Combat Shorter Holiday Selling Season
    Retailers Scramble For Promotions To Combat Shorter Holiday Selling Season

    Not unlike how the Fed runs monetary policy, retailers this holiday season are trying to “move the goalposts” in order to cram more sales into what is technically a shorter holiday selling season. 

    The fourth quarter is make or break for many retailers and, this year, Thanksgiving – traditionally the mark of the beginning of the holiday shopping season – falls on the 28th of November. This is about a week later than the 22nd of November, when it fell last year, according to Reuters.

    The result? Retailers have 6 less days to drive sales between Thanksgiving and Christmas. 

    The last time a shortened holiday season happened was in 2013, when retail chains and delivery companies “scrambled” to get packages to shoppers in time for Christmas. Retailers are looking to avoid the rush of 2013 again, while at the same time gearing up to compete head on with Amazon, which has been offering free one-day shipping on over 10 million products since June. 

    The holiday season for retail companies can sometimes account for as much as 40% of annual sales.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Target Corp’s chief executive, Brian Cornell, said: “It’s a very compressed holiday season…every day counts.”

    Target will be offering a “Drive Up” service where it lets customers order online or on the app and then pick up their items at the store without ever leaving their car. The service will be available in all 50 states. Target says most orders will be available within an hour and brought out in “less than 2 minutes” upon arrival.

    They are offering this service in addition to free shipping with no minimum purchase and same day delivery services. 

    Best Buy is also promising free next-day delivery on thousands of items and Walmart is offering free next-day delivery on orders over $35 without a membership fee.

    Steve Sadove, senior adviser for Mastercard and a former CEO and chairman of department store operator Saks Inc. said: “A shorter holiday season puts more importance on each shopping day. The sales outlook for the season remains positive despite the fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.”

    Mastercard is expecting retail sales ex-automobiles to grow 3.1% over last year between November 1 and December 24.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The holiday shopping season has been pushed back by retailers every year, however, regardless of when Thanksgiving falls. The season used to start on Black Friday, but has now been pushed back into late October by companies like Walmart, who seek to get an earlier jump every year. 

    For instance, Wayfair is already offering up to 70% off top selling items while companies like Amazon, Target and Kohls are already offering Black Friday deals, weeks before Black Friday.

    Carol Spieckerman, president at consultancy Spieckerman Retail said: “Retailers will need to plant a sense of urgency early-on, then reinforce it after Thanksgiving, when the rubber meets the road.”

    Another headwind for holiday sales remains the trade war with China, however. Tariffs imposed by President Trump continue to “weigh on sentiment” heading into the holiday season. 

    79% of Americans worry that tariffs will make their holiday shopping trips more expensive this year, according to the National Retail Federation, a leading industry trade body. Another round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese consumer goods is set for December 15. 

    Recall, we recently noted that a slowdown in trucking ahead of the holiday season could be an ominous sign. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The slowdown in the domestic trucking industry suggests the consumer is likely to disappoint this holiday season, we said in late October.  

    And for more color on consumer trends, not just in the US but perhaps on a global view, the global shipping container industry is sounding an alarm. 

    Shipping rates for 40′ containers have taken another leg lower in the last several months. This means retailers are ordering fewer consumer goods from China and other emerging markets, a clear indication the consumer is weakening.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Last month, Amazon guided its forecast for the holiday season lower. Analysts were absolutely shocked, but it marks the beginning of a new trend where the consumer is expected to come under financial stress, pull back on spending, and could start saving as the next recession nears.

    Tracking freight rates and volumes of various forms of transportation in domestic and global supply chains have given us perhaps an idea of what’s to come, that is, an underwhelming holiday season for retailers. 


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 22:45

  • 35 Reasons To Leave California
    35 Reasons To Leave California

    Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

    Wouldn’t it be wonderful if there was a “reboot” button for an entire state? Because the truth is that if an entire state ever needed to completely start over it is the state of California. At this point it has become the epicenter for just about everything that is wrong with America, and each year it just keeps coming up with new ways to become an even worse cesspool of social decay and depravity.

    Millions of people have already left the state, and millions more are thinking of leaving. One recent survey found that 47 percent of all Californians are thinking about moving out of the state in the next five years, and a different survey discovered that 53 percent of those currently living in the state would like to leave. If about half the people in your state are seriously considering leaving, it is safe to say that things have gone horribly wrong. But instead of changing course, those running California continue taking the state down a very self-destructive path.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    It is such a shame, because California should be one of the greatest places in the world to live. The weather is wonderful most of the year, the state still possesses extraordinary natural beauty, and the tech industry provides plenty of high paying jobs.

    When I was growing up, millions of young Americans dreamed of moving there and living “the California dream”, and when I was a young man I seriously explored the possibility of moving there myself.

    And the truth is that a lot of great things have come out of the state. The following comes from a recent article by Ann Coulter

    In the last century, every great thing started in California: surfing, jeans, Disneyland, tax revolts, McDonald’s, movies, car culture, the Grateful Dead, right on red turns, Merle Haggard, skateboarding, Apple computer, and the last two elected Republican presidents not named “Bush.”

    But now I don’t know why anyone would want to live there.

    If you currently live in California, I am about to tell you a whole bunch of reasons why you should leave. In fact, if I could get everybody to leave the state, I would.

    However, if you feel specifically called to stay, then that is what you should do. Without a doubt, light is needed the most where things are the darkest, and California needs as much light as it can get right now.

    Unfortunately, I believe that it is too late for the state as a whole. It is headed for a date with destiny, and most of the nearly 40 million people that live there have absolutely no idea what is coming.

    If you live in the state and you do not know what you should do, I would get out while you still can. The following are 35 reasons why you should move away from California…

    1. Incredibly high taxes. At this point, California has the highest marginal tax rate in the entire country.

    2. Absurd housing costs.

    3. The median home value in the state is now more than half a million dollars, and that is about twice as high as the national average.

    4. It has been estimated that it now takes approximately $350,000 a year to live a middle class lifestyle in the city of San Francisco.

    5. Endless wildfires.

    6. Epic mudslides.

    7. Horrific traffic jams.

    8. Los Angeles has the worst traffic congestion in the entire world.

    9. The education system is awful.

    10. Medical tyranny.

    11. One of the highest poverty levels in the United States.

    12. Thousands of drug addicts are literally pooping in the streets.

    13. Almost half of all the homeless people in the entire nation live in California.

    14. The state is literally being overrun by millions of rats.

    15. Los Angeles has been ranked as the second most rat-infested city in the country.

    16. At this point things are so bad that even Los Angeles City Hall is being overrun by rats.

    17. Illegal immigration is out of control, and the sanctuary cities in California are making things even worse.

    18. Rising gang activity.

    19. High crime rates.

    20. There is now a law in California that protects shoplifters. So for those that enjoy shoplifting, this might actually be a reason to move into the state.

    21. The drug war that has been raging in Mexico is increasingly spilling across the border.

    22. California has been ranked as the worst state in the nation to do business year after year.

    23. California is also one of the most litigious states in the entire country.

    24. The once pristine beaches in the state are now being “completely overrun with fecal bacteria”.

    25. Nancy Pelosi.

    26. Kamala Harris.

    27. Governor Gavin Newsom.

    28. The lieutenant governor, the attorney general, the secretary of state and the state treasurer are all Democrats.

    29. Democrats make up nearly two-thirds of the California State Senate.

    30. Democrats make up more than two-thirds of the California State Assembly.

    31. Both of the U.S. senators and 46 out of the 53 members of the House of Representatives that California sends to Washington are Democrats.

    32. Much of the population is openly hostile to those that identify as conservatives.

    33. California has been on the cutting edge of America’s moral decay for decades.

    34. There have been more than 100,000 earthquakes in the state so far this year.

    35. One day the “Big One” will hit California, and the geography of the state will be dramatically altered. The devastation will be unlike anything we have ever witnessed, and the death toll will be unimaginable.

    If Donald Trump wins the next presidential election, there is a group of activists in California that plan to get a “Calexit” referendum on the ballot for the following election.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Those activists don’t want to be part of a country that would elect Trump two times, because they consider their values to be completely and utterly incompatible with Trump’s values.

    But what is happening in this nation is far bigger than just Trump.

    To me, it would be wonderful if the rest of the nation decided that their values were completely and utterly incompatible with California’s values. We desperately need to turn America around, and the way to do that is to head in a completely opposite direction from the way that California is going.

    Sadly, it does not appear that is going to happen. California may be racing ahead of most of the rest of the country, but our final destination will be the same.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 22:25

  • Taiwan Warns Of Possible Invasion If China's Economy Continues To Deteriorate
    Taiwan Warns Of Possible Invasion If China's Economy Continues To Deteriorate

    As the global synchronized slowdown intensifies, Taiwan is now warning if Beijing can’t create a soft landing in its economy, the threat of a Chinese invasion would be on the horizon. 

    Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu sounded the alarm in a Reuters interview on Wednesday, when he said, Chinese officials would likely invade self-ruled Taiwan to divert domestic economic pressures if a soft landing cannot be achieved. 

    “If the internal stability is a very serious issue, or economic slowdown has become a very serious issue for the top leaders to deal with, that is the occasion that we need to be very careful,” Wu said. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    “We need to prepare ourselves for the worst situation to come…military conflict,” he warned. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    China’s untenable debt load and Beijing’s resulting inability to boost the credit impulse has certainly frightened Wu, who knows that if China’s economy, already near a 30-year low, continues to implode, that military conflict with mainland China would be nearing. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Wu noted that China’s economy is on shaky grounds at the moment, but nothing that would suggest a conflict to be imminent. 

    “Perhaps Xi Jinping himself is called into question of his legitimacy, by not being able to keep the Chinese economy growing,” Wu said, referring to Chinese President Xi.

    “This is a factor that might cause the Chinese leaders to decide to take external action to divert domestic attention.”

    China’s growing military presence in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Philippine Sea has become “very serious,” Wu said.

    “We certainly hope that Taiwan and China could live peacefully together, but we also see there are problems caused by China, and we will try to deal with it,” he said.

    And to make things more complicated, the US House of Representatives foreign affairs committee recently voted unanimously to approve a new bill that would strengthen ties between Washington and Taipei. 

    The bill is called the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative would allow the US to defend Taiwan from Chinese diplomatic pressures.

    The Trump administration has been selling Taiwan billions of dollars in fighter jets, tanks, and other military weapons, to beef up defenses if Beijing attempts to invade.

    And with macroeconomic headwinds that continue to flourish across the world, this means China will likely slow into 2020. Every downtick in China’s GDP should be correlated to the increasing probability of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. 


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 22:05

    Tags

  • Nevins: Where Is That Confounded Recession?
    Nevins: Where Is That Confounded Recession?

    Authored by Daniel Nevins via FFWiley.com,

    “Ah, excuse me. Oh, will ya excuse me. I’m just trying to find the recession. Has anybody seen the recession?”

    Ask that question in a roomful of forecasters, and you’ll hear plenty of reasons why the next recession is dead ahead: the inverted yield curve, the tariff war, weak PMIs, the global manufacturing downturn.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Events might eventually prove those recession forecasts to be correct, although I would say not until mid-2020 at the earliest, and a recession at that time remains just a possibility. I say that because we haven’t yet seen enough cause for alarm in the three areas that most reliably predict recessions. Before every recession, we see at least one, usually two and often every one of the following three precursors:

    • Deterioration in the housing sector

    • Restrictive public policies

    • Significant damage to the real spending capacity of households, businesses or both

    In other words, when trouble emerges across some combination of housing activity, public policies and real spending capacity, we’ll know to expect a recession. Trouble in one of those areas should put us on alert, whereas two or three would mean we should bank on it. So what’s missing from today’s popular recession narratives is adequate support from the “Big-3” precursors, and without that support, it’s probably too soon to bet on a recession. The U.S. economy always expands when the housing sector is stable, public policies are growth-supportive and real spending capacity is increasing. Simply put, no sign of the Big-3 means no recession.

    But isn’t there a first time for everything? Can it really be so simple?

    There is, and I don’t expect to convince anyone the economy is that simple without first providing some evidence, so I’ll continue. I’ll focus mostly on spending capacity, which is where I stray furthest from traditional, mainstream methods.

    Why spending capacity?

    Behavioral research, empirical data and casual observation all point towards households and businesses increasing their spending for as long as they have the capacity to do so. Changes in spending capacity predict changes in spending with remarkable accuracy, notwithstanding the Keynesian idea that spending follows the mysterious ebbs and flows of “animal spirits.” In fact, the spirits described by Keynesians might not be all that mysterious—they’re always present in some degree, they just happen to flow in proportion to spending capacity. They don’t disappear for no particular reason and then later reappear.

    So I suggest closing your Keynesian textbook and looking instead to natural human behavior for clues about spending. Behavioral research tells us we’re naturally overconfident, believing our ventures will succeed with a certainty that defies the true probability of success. It also tells us we’re at least partially blind to certain obstacles to success, such as basic randomness. We’re naturally wired to have an illusion of control and an optimism bias alongside hindsight and confirmation biases, all of which encourage us to spend for as long as we have the capacity to do so.

    But that’s not all. We’re also prone to a lack of self control that researchers have termed present bias and a tendency to spend like drunken sailors whenever in the company of other free-spending drunken sailors, thanks to our natural herding bias. I could go on, but you get the idea—once we consider human nature, it’s easier to appreciate why spending capacity is the economy’s driving force.

    What Exactly Is Spending Capacity?

    All that being said, I still need to define spending capacity, and my definition is broader than you might think. It starts with earnings—both household and business earnings—which of course help determine the resources available to be spent. It also includes risky asset prices, because spending depends partly on house price cycles and investment portfolio values. In fact, spending is more exposed to asset price volatility than ever before, with assets owned by households and nonprofits currently valued at 608% of annual GDP, compared to averages of 385% in the 1970s, 407% in the 1980s, 454% in the 1990s and 537% in the first decade of the 2000s.

    Finally, there’s a third piece that’s usually overlooked, and I blame the economics profession for that. Spending depends not only on what households and businesses earn and own, as noted, but also on what they can borrow. And it depends not just on what they can borrow, but on what they can borrow from banks, in particular.

    Why banks as opposed to other types of lenders?

    Because banks are the only lenders that create spending power from “thin-air.” That’s not something you’ll learn in mainstream economics, which mangles the mechanics of money and banking, but if you’re trying to understand business cycles, it’s an essential fact. The key insight is that new bank credit expands the circular flow of income and spending (see the chart below), whereas other types of credit mostly sustain the existing flow by passing spending power from one party to another. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    In other words, only banks increase spending power on a net basis, because they can make loans without requiring prior savings from past income. Apart from a small allocation of bank capital, banks conjure loan proceeds from thin air—that’s the crux of what their charters allow them to do. The monetary expansion authorized by bank charters explains why new bank credit is 69% correlated with spending in the same period and 58% correlated with spending in the next period, whereas corresponding figures for credit financed by prior domestic savings (not banks) are negligible (see the chart below).

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    (As obvious as the charts above might be to those who’ve either worked as bankers or studied banking from up close, mainstream economists tell a different story, teaching that banks are mere intermediaries and only central banks determine the money supply. Those mainstream claims have been called out repeatedly by practitioners, heterodox economists and even central bankers—the Fed, Bank of England and Bank for International Settlements have all provided information refuting textbook money and banking theory—but to no avail. Schools continue to teach money and banking incorrectly at both undergraduate and graduate levels.)

    What Do the Big-3 Say about the Next Recession?

    So spending capacity depends on real earnings, asset prices and the availability of new bank credit. Getting back to the Big-3 precursors that always materialize in some combination (again, not necessarily all three at once) before recessions, we can expand the third precursor using the determinants of spending capacity. Here’s the expanded list:

    • Deterioration in the housing sector

    • Restrictive public policies

    • Significant damage to the real spending capacity of households, businesses or both, which could mean any of the following:

      • Earnings that fail to keep pace with inflation

      • Falling real asset prices

      • Restrictive bank credit

    We can then expand the list further with more subcategories and by adding the foreign sector, which I include as a less influential input but one that could contribute to a recessionary process. The expanded list includes separate readings for:

    • fiscal and monetary policies

    • household and business earnings

    • house and stock prices, and

    • bank credit conditions for households and businesses

    Below are my assessments for each item, with comments on at least one of the indicators that support each assessment. (My email subscribers know that this is the same list that drops out of the 6-cycle forecasting approach described in my book, I’ve just tweaked the terminology to match the language used here.)

    Housing sector: Not recessionary. Indicators such as new home sales and the NAHB housing market index show housing activity recovering nicely from a period of weakness in 2018.

    Fiscal policy: Not recessionary. Government spending is growing at a decent clip in 2019, while taxes and net transfer receipts dropped to a new six-year low as a percentage of GDP in the first half of the year, which can only help household and business spending capacity. Also, July’s debt ceiling deal freed up more federal spending in the 2020 fiscal year.

    Monetary policy: Not recessionary. I often use the yield curve slope as a guide to monetary policy, and today’s inverted curve might suggest that monetary policy is recessionary, but I’ve overridden that for three reasons: 1) the Fed barely lifted the inflation-adjusted fed funds rate in the 2015–18 tightening cycle, and therefore, fell far short of the typical recessionary tightening, 2) we’re now 11 months removed from the last rate hike, and 3) we’re three rate hikes into an easing cycle.

    Business earnings: Slightly recessionary. With the Q3 earnings season over 70% complete, S&P projects GAAP earnings for the S&P 500 to be 2% lower than the matching year-ago figure, compared to increases of 3% in Q2 and 6% in Q1. S&P 500 operating earnings by I/B/E/S from Refinitiv tell approximately the same story—lower by 0.8% in Q3 (as of Nov. 5) after increasing by 1% in Q2 and 3% in Q1. Factset, by comparison, shows three consecutive year-over-year declines, but the changes are small (-0.3% in Q1, -0.4% in Q2 and likely to be somewhere between -1% and -3% in Q3). So however you look at it, the Q3 earnings dip is shallow. It’s significantly less severe than the 2015–16 earnings recession, although not as easily explained away as being a reflection of oil price volatility—this time the global manufacturing downturn is also part of the story. Factset expects the dip to continue in Q4, whereas projections from S&P and Refinitiv show positive year-over-year growth. All things considered, I have to call business earnings slightly recessionary, but the numbers aren’t yet convincing. Stay tuned.

    Household earnings: Not recessionary. Using average hourly earnings as a guide, household earnings growth outpaced inflation by 1.2% over the past 12 months, while real disposable income increased by 3.2% over the same period. By either measure, household earnings are growing strongly enough to support continued gains in consumer spending.

    Business credit conditions: Not recessionary. Although demand for C&I loans has stalled of late, ample credit remains available. The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) shows that business lending standards haven’t significantly changed in either direction.

    Household credit conditions: Not recessionary. Again, lending standards haven’t significantly changed in either direction. Also, bank balance sheets are expanding at a healthy pace—recent data shows banks adding enough real estate loans and mortgage bonds to grow thin-air spending power despite the dip in C&I loan demand.

    Stock prices: Not recessionary. Record stock prices have boosted investment portfolio values and should help to support spending.

    House prices: Not recessionary but on watch for a possible downgrade. House price growth is decelerating but remains slightly above the CPI inflation rate according to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-city index. It would have to drop another 2% or 3%, depending on changes in consumer inflation, before I would call it a recessionary reading.

    Foreign sector: Not recessionary. Although slowing exports have weighed slightly on GDP, imports have dropped as a percentage of GDP (a measure of import penetration) in the first three quarters of 2019. On balance, data fail to support a “recessionary” assessment, although that could change in 2020 with either a steeper drop in exports or a rising propensity to import.

    As reminder to regular readers and a heads-up to new readers, I’ve documented the predictive value of indicators discussed above in my 6-cycle forecast articles, my TSP (thin-air spending power) articles and my book Economics for Independent Thinkers.

    Conclusions

    All Big-3 precursors considered, the near-term outlook is weaker than normal but not yet recessionary—the expansion appears to have enough policy support, spending capacity growth and overall momentum to continue through at least the first quarter or two of 2020.

    Deeper into the year, the outlook could darken as many forecasters predict, especially if corporate earnings continue to slide. But we could just as easily see more of the same—an economy that grinds slowly higher as real incomes grow, asset prices trend upwards and bank balance sheets expand. To gauge which of the scenarios is becoming more likely, I suggest watching the Big-3 and tuning out most everything else.

    “Have you seen the recession? I ain’t (yet) seen the recession!”


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 21:45

  • Fed Warns Climate Change Is A Major Threat To The Economy
    Fed Warns Climate Change Is A Major Threat To The Economy

    What is a good way for the Fed to deflect attention from the fact that after a decade of liquidity injections it has created the world’s largest asset bubble? Why point to another, even bigger – in its view – threat. And with green bonds, unlimited fiscal deficits and MMT all the rage (if not today, then soon), what better bogeyman for the Fed to wave in front of the public than the hottest topic, so to speak, of the day: climate change.

    Speaking at the GARP Global Risk Forum, NY Fed executive vice president Kevin Stiroh warned in his prepared remarks, that climate change – not, say, asset bubbles created by his employer – is a major threat that risk managers can’t ignore.

    “The U.S. economy has experienced more than $500 billion in direct losses over the last five years due to climate and weather-related events. In addition, climate change has significant consequences for the U.S. economy and financial sector through slowing productivity growth, asset revaluations and sectoral reallocations of business activity” he

    That was how Stiroh framed the one danger that, according to the Fed, is emerging as the biggest threat to the US economy.

    But why is the Fed, whose only concern should be the cost of money, suddenly preoccupied with the weather? Because as the EVP says in his speech, “as supervisors, we can consider climate-related risks in terms of both microprudential and macroprudential objectives.”

    In other words, it’s only a matter of time before the Fed blames the weather for the next great, “unexpected” crisis… which like the bubbles of 2001 and 2008 was entirely the Fed’s doing.

    Lulckily, the Fed apparatchik did stop before providing advice on how to combat climate change – of which it is the primary enabler, as its loose money policy allows zombie corprorations with outdated emissions standards to stay in business – and said that “supervisors should take a risk management perspective, not a social engineering one. It is beyond our mandate to advocate or provide incentives for a particular transition path.”

    Rather, Stiroh said, “supervisors should focus on the risks that emerge along the path decided by the public at large and their elected governments. Supervisors can use our tools to ensure financial institutions are prepared for and resilient to all types of relevant risks, including climate-related events.”

    It wasn’t clear what tools he was referring to (the Fed certainly has plenty of those), but he did break down the climate change risk into two main categories for risk managers:

    • Physical risk is the potential for losses as climate-related changes disrupt business operations, destroy capital and interrupt economic activity.
    • Transition risk is the potential for losses resulting from a shift toward a lower-carbon economy as policy, consumer sentiment and technological innovations impact the value of certain assets and liabilities. These effects will be felt across business sectors and asset classes, and on the strategies, operations and balance sheets of financial firms.

    But wait, in a world in which asset managers only care about their year-end bonus and anything that happens on Jan 1 of next year is someone else’s problem, why should anyone on Wall Street give a rat’s ass about the weather, unless of course it is to capitalize on it? The Fed’s response: “climate change is a long-term issue where actions today are likely to have an impact over many decades. This exceeds the typical life span of a bank exposure, as well as the typical control and planning horizon of a financial institution. Risk management tools, models and scenarios are not designed to capture the long-term nature of climate-related risks. Nonetheless, real impacts are already being felt and we must develop the tools to assess and manage them.”

    Impacts… like a 16-year-old girl with Asperger’s syndrome dictating monetary, fiscal and social policy?

    One more thing: the Fed vice president’s remarks did not venture into a discussion on another hot topic: green QE, or central banks boosting bond issuance by refocusing their asset purchase programs toward “green bonds”, as the new ECB President Christine Lagarde suggested recently, when she hinted that the ECB might be open to the idea once she had more information.

    It was not clear just how monetizing a “green” bond is any different than monetizing any other bonds. In fact, with the Fed already doing so to the tune of $60 billion in monthly Bill purchases as part of its “Not QE”, the only question is how will the Treasury rebrand 10 or 30Y bonds as “green”, in the process greenlighting even more debt and deficit monetization by the Fed, whose ultimate goal is clear to most by now: using “climate change” and “green bonds” as scapegoats behind a “Green New Deal” type of arrangement, in which the Fed basically adopts helicopter money, and becomes a de facto agent of the Treasury, monetizing almost every piece of debt sold by the US, making the Japanification of the US complete just as the final fiat currency devaluation experiment gets going.

    At least Greta Thunberg will be happy for a few years before the social catalysm that results from the Fed’s final act of idiocy means that eating the rich – and just about anyone else – will be more than just a figure of speech.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 21:25

  • Glenn Greenwald Assaulted By Pro-Bolsonaro Goon During Live Broadcast
    Glenn Greenwald Assaulted By Pro-Bolsonaro Goon During Live Broadcast

    Authored by Jake Johnson via CommonDreams.org,

    The Intercept‘s Glenn Greenwald was assaulted during a live broadcast Thursday by a right-wing Brazilian journalist and defender of the country’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Greenwald, whose reporting this year has exposed unethical and possibly criminal behavior by Bolsonaro and his government, repeatedly called journalist and columnist Augusto Nunes a “coward” during a segment on Jovem Pan News, one of Brazil’s largest right-wing radio and Youtube outlets.

    In a tweet ahead of his appearance, Greenwald said he had “many questions” for Nunes, who suggested in September that a juvenile judge should investigate Greenwald and his husband, Brazilian lawmaker David Miranda, for neglecting their adopted children.

    “We have a lot of political differences, I have no problem being criticized for my work, I criticize him too, but what he did was the ugliest and dirtiest thing I’ve ever seen in my career as a journalist,” Greenwald said of Nunes’ comments during Thursday’s show.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Watch the full incident:


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 21:05

  • Not Just Billionaires: Now Democrats Want To Hit Millionaires With 10% Surtax
    Not Just Billionaires: Now Democrats Want To Hit Millionaires With 10% Surtax

    With 2020 Democratic candidates Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders threatening to separate billionaires from their money, two other Democrats have proposed tax hikes that would hit the wealthy with a 10% surtax on income above $2 million according to Bloomberg.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Introduced by Maryland Democrat Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Rep. Don Beyer of Virginia, the new plan would raise the effective top rate on wages to 47%, while capital gains would taxes would top out at 33.8%. The proposal “could raise $635 billion over 10 years,” according to surtax.org.

    Van Hollen calls it “a simple system to ensure the wealthy are doing their part to invest in strengthening America’s future for everyone.”

    The idea is the latest in a long string of Democratic plans to make wealthy Americans pay more. But with 2020 presidential candidates and members of Congress envisioning expensive programs to reshape U.S. health care, confront climate change, and offer free college educations there has been a greater urgency to find ways to finance these ambitions — and that involves higher taxes on the rich.

    The arsenal of proposals includes wealth taxes, financial transaction levies and capital gains changes.

    The Van Hollen-Beyer surtax would raise about $635 billion over a decade, according to projections from the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. By comparison, Senator Elizabeth Warren, one of the party’s leading presidential candidates, estimates that her wealth tax would raise $3.75 trillion over 10 years. –Bloomberg

    The surtax is being framed as a more moderate approach of raising taxes on the top 0.2% of taxpayers, or around 329,000 Americans, and could be legislatively piggybacked on top of the existing tax code – which would make it easier for a Democratic-controlled Congress to pass under the next Democratic president.

    “This is something moderates can support,” said Frank Clemente, executive director of Americans for Tax Fairness. “I don’t think we are going to see a wealth tax anytime soon.”

    Warren’s plan would impose a 2% levy on fortunes over $50 million and 6% on those above $1 billion, while Sanders’ plan would kick in a $32 million in assets and would top out at 8%.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 20:45

  • Rigged Again? Dems, Russia, & The Delegitimization Of America's Democratic Process
    Rigged Again? Dems, Russia, & The Delegitimization Of America's Democratic Process

    Authored by Elizabeth Vos via ConsortiumNews.com,

    Establishment Democrats and those who amplify them continue to project blame for the public’s doubt in the U.S. election process onto outside influence, despite the clear history of the party’s subversion of election integrity. The total inability of the Democratic Party establishment’s willingness to address even one of these critical failures does not give reason to hope that the nomination process in 2020 will be any less pre-ordained.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The Democratic Party’s bias against Sen. Bernie Sanders during the 2016 presidential nomination, followed by the DNC defense counsel doubling down on its right to rig the race during the fraud lawsuit brought against the DNC, as well as the irregularities in the races between former DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Tim Canova, indicate a fatal breakdown of the U.S. democratic process spearheaded by the Democratic Party establishment. Influences transcending the DNC add to concerns regarding the integrity of the democratic process that have nothing to do with Russia, but which will also likely impact outcomes in 2020.

    The content of the DNC and Podesta emails published by WikiLeaks demonstrated that the DNC acted in favor of Hillary Clinton in the lead up to the 2016 Democratic primary. The emails also revealed corporate media reporters acting as surrogates of the DNC and its pro-Clinton agenda, going so far as to promote Donald Trump during the GOP primary process as a preferred “pied-piper candidate.” One cannot assume that similar evidence will be presented to the public in 2020, making it more important than ever to take stock of the unique lessons handed down to us by the 2016 race.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during a 2016 Democratic primary debate. (YouTube/Screen shot)

    Social Media Meddling

    Election meddling via social media did take place in 2016, though in a different guise and for a different cause from that which are best remembered. Twitter would eventually admit to actively suppressing hashtags referencing the DNC and Podesta emails in the run-up to the 2016 presidential election. Additional reports indicated that tech giant Google also showed measurable “pro-Hillary Clinton bias” in search results during 2016, resulting in the alleged swaying of between 2 and 10 millions voters in favor of Clinton.

    On the Republican side, a recent episode of CNLive! featured discussion of the Cambridge Analytica scandal, in which undecided voters were micro-targeted with tailored advertising narrowed with the combined use of big data and artificial intelligence known collectively as “dark strategy.” CNLive! Executive Producer Cathy Vogan noted that SCL, Cambridge Analytica’s parent company, provides data, analytics and strategy to governments and military organizations “worldwide,” specializing in behavior modification. Though Cambridge Analytica shut down in 2018, related companies remain.

    The Clinton camp was hardly absent from social media during the 2016 race. The barely-legal activities of Clintonite David Brock were previously reported by this author to have included $2 million in funding for the creation of an online “troll army” under the name Shareblue. The LA Times described the project as meant to “to appear to be coming organically from people and their social media networks in a groundswell of activism, when in fact it is highly paid and highly tactical.” In other words, the effort attempted to create a false sense of consensus in support for the Clinton campaign.

    In terms of interference in the actual election process, the New York City Board of Elections was shown to have purged over one hundred thousand Democratic voters in Brooklyn from the rolls before the 2016 primary, a move that the Department of Justice found broke federal law. Despite this, no prosecution for the breach was ever attempted.

    Though the purge was not explicitly found to have benefitted Clinton, the admission falls in line with allegations across the country that the Democratic primary was interfered with to the benefit of the former secretary of state. These claims were further bolstered by reports indicating that voting results from the 2016 Democratic primary showed evidence of fraud.

    DNC Fraud Lawsuit

    The proceedings of the DNC fraud lawsuit provide the most damning evidence of the failure of the U.S. election process, especially within the Democratic Party. DNC defense lawyers argued in open court for the party’s right to appoint candidates at its own discretion, while simultaneously denying any “fiduciary duty” to represent the voters who donated to the Democratic Party under the impression that the DNC would act impartially towards the candidates involved.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    “Bernie or Bust” protesters at the Wells Fargo Center during Democrats’ roll call vote to nominate Hillary Clinton. (Becker1999, CC BY 2.0, Wikimedia Commons)

    In 2017, the Observer reported that the DNC’s defense counsel argued against claims that the party defrauded Sanders’ supporters by favoring Clinton, reasoning that Sanders’ supporters knew the process was rigged. Again: instead of arguing that the primary was neutral and unbiased in accordance with its charter, the DNC’s lawyers argued that it was the party’s right to select candidates.

    The Observer noted the sentiments of Jared Beck, the attorney representing the plaintiffs of the lawsuit:

    …“People paid money in reliance on the understanding that the primary elections for the Democratic nominee —nominating process in 2016 were fair and impartial, and that’s not just a bedrock assumption that we would assume just by virtue of the fact that we live in a democracy, and we assume that our elections are run in a fair and impartial manner. But that’s what the Democratic National Committee’s own charter says. It says it in black and white.”

    The DNC defense counsel’s argument throughout the course of the DNC fraud lawsuit doubled down repeatedly in defense of the party’s right to favor one candidate over another, at one point actually claiming that such favoritism was protected by the First Amendment. The DNC’s lawyers wrote:

    “To recognize any of the causes of action that Plaintiffs allege would run directly contrary to long-standing Supreme Court precedent recognizing the central and critical First Amendment rights enjoyed by political parties, especially when it comes to selecting the party’s nominee for public office.” [Emphasis added]

    The DNC’s shameless defense of its own rigging disemboweled the most fundamental organs of the U.S. body politic.  This no indication that the DNC will not resort to the same tactics in the 2020 primary race,

    Tim Canova’s Allegations

    If Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s role as disgraced chairwoman of the DNC and her forced 2016 resignation wasn’t enough, serious interference was also alleged in the wake of two contests between Wasserman Schultz and professor Tim Canova in Florida’s 23rd congressional district. Canova and Wasserman Schultz first faced off in a 2016 Democratic primary race, followed by a 2018 general congressional election in which Canova ran as an independent.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Tim Canova with supporters, April 2016. (CanovaForCongress, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons)

    Debacles followed both contests, including improper vote counts, illegal ballot destruction, improper transportation of ballots, and generally shameless displays of cronyism. After the controversial results of the initial primary race against Wasserman Schultz, Canova sought to have ballots checked for irregularities, as the Sun-Sentinel reported at the time:

    “[Canova] sought to look at the paper ballots in March 2017 and took Elections Supervisor Brenda Snipes to court three months later when her office hadn’t fulfilled his request. Snipes approved the destruction of the ballots in September, signing a certification that said no court cases involving the ballots were pending.”

    Ultimately, Canova was granted a summary judgment against Snipes, finding that she had committed what amounted to multiple felonies. Nonetheless, Snipes was not prosecuted and remained elections supervisor through to the 2018 midterms.

    Republicans appear no more motivated to protect voting integrity than the Democrats, with The Nation reporting that the GOP-controlled Senate blocked a bill this week that would have “mandated paper-ballot backups in case of election machine malfunctions.”

    Study of Corporate Power

    A 2014 study published by Princeton University found that corporate power had usurped the voting rights of the public: “Economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.”

    In reviewing this sordid history, we see that the Democratic Party establishment has done everything in its power to disrespect voters and outright overrule them in the democratic primary process, defending their right to do so in the DNC fraud lawsuit. We’ve noted that interests transcending the DNC also represent escalating threats to election integrity as demonstrated in 2016.

    Despite this, establishment Democrats and those who echo their views in the legacy press continue to deflect from their own wrongdoing and real threats to the election process by suggesting that mere discussion of it represents a campaign by Russia to attempt to malign the perception of the legitimacy of the U.S. democratic process.

    Hillary Clinton’s recent comments to the effect that Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard is being “groomed” by Russia, and that the former Green Party Presidential candidate Dr. Jill Stein is a “Russian asset”, were soon echoed by DNC-friendly pundits. These sentiments externalize what Gabbard called the “rot” in the Democratic party outward onto domestic critics and a nation across the planet.

    Newsweek provided a particularly glaring example of this phenomenon in a recent op-ed penned by columnist Naveed Jamali, a former FBI double agent whose book capitalizes on Russiagate. In an op-ed titled: Hillary Clinton Is Right. Tulsi Gabbard Is A Perfect Russian Asset – And Would Be A Perfect Republican Agent,” Jamali argued:

    “Moscow will use its skillful propaganda machine to prop up Gabbard and use her as a tool to delegitimize the democratic process.” [Emphasis added]

    Jamali surmises that Russia intends to “attack” our democracy by undermining the domestic perception of its legitimacy. This thesis is repeated later in the piece when Jamali opines: “They want to see a retreat of American influence. What better way to accomplish that than to attack our democracy by casting doubt on the legitimacy of our elections.” [Emphasis added]

    The only thing worth protecting, according to Jamali and those who amplify his work (including former Clinton aide and establishment Democrat Neera Tanden), is the perception of the democratic process, not the actual functioning vitality of it. Such deflective tactics ensure that Russia will continue to be used as a convenient international pretext for silencing domestic dissent as we move into 2020.

    Given all this, how can one expect the outcome of a 2020 Democratic Primary — or even the general election – to be any fairer or transparent than 2016?

    *  *  *

    Elizabeth Vos is a freelance reporter, co-host of CN Live! and regular contributor to Consortium News. 

    If you value this original article, please consider making a donation to Consortium News so we can bring you more stories like this one.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 20:25

    Tags

  • "CBS Sided With A Pedophile": Network Fires Staffer Who Had Access To Robach-Epstein Rant
    "CBS Sided With A Pedophile": Network Fires Staffer Who Had Access To Robach-Epstein Rant

    CBS has fired a female staffer believed to have had access to a candid tape of ABC host Amy Robach complaining that in 2016, the network shelved her scoop on Jeffrey Epstein’s sex crimes, according to Page Six.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    “I’ve had the story for three years… we would not put it on the air,” Robach said on a hot mic moment leaked to Project Veritas. “It was unbelievable what we had, Clinton, we had everything.”

    It hasn’t gone unnoticed that exposing Epstein would have hurt Hillary Clinton during the 2016 US election.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Watch the Robach video here:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 17:15

  • NASA Gas Detector Plane Identifies "Super-Emitters" Across California
    NASA Gas Detector Plane Identifies "Super-Emitters" Across California

    NASA has made a surprising discovery in California after it flew a plane across the state outfitted with specialized gas-imaging sensors. The new data, published this week in the scientific journal Nature, found that a third of California’s methane emissions can be traced to several “super-emitters.” 

    In the last several years, NASA teamed up with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and the California Energy Commission, discovered most methane emissions in California are from industrial facilities, such as landfills, large dairy farms, and oil and gas fields. 

    NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, flew a plane with the Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer – Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) over 300,000 facilities across California. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The team found 550 sources emitting highly concentrated methane into the atmosphere. At least 55 of these sources were considered “super-emitters” because of the high-volume of methane that was detected. 

    The study said the 55 “super-emitters” were responsible for at least a third of California’s total methane emission. 

    Of the 270 surveyed landfills, about 30 were observed to emit high amounts of methane and responsible for 40% of all emissions detected during the survey. 

    “These findings illustrate the importance of monitoring point sources across multiple sectors [of the economy] and broad regions, both for improved understanding of methane budgets and to support emission mitigation efforts,” said the lead scientist on the study, Riley Duren, a research scientist at the University of Arizona and an Engineering Fellow at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

    In total, landfills accounted for 41% of the methane emissions, dairy and manure farms were 26%, and oil and gas operations 26%.

    The survey marks the first time the federal government has flown a surveillance aircraft over any state to monitor methane emissions of facilities. 

    The release of this report could induce lawmakers to slap businesses that are considered “super-emitters” with methane taxes. 

     


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 20:05

  • Gordon Chang: Do Not Support China's Huawei, Cripple It Instead
    Gordon Chang: Do Not Support China's Huawei, Cripple It Instead

    Authored by Gordon Chang via The Gatestone Institute,

    “A prominent Republican who advises President Donald Trump called America’s 5G strategy ‘the biggest strategic disaster in U.S. history,'” wrote China-watcher David Goldman recently.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Many people will regard that as an exaggeration, but America’s failure to have a 5G strategy will almost certainly prove to have historic consequences.

    “5G” is shorthand for the fifth generation of wireless communication.

    “In the very near future, dominating the wireless world will be tantamount to dominating the world,” wrote Newt Gingrich in Newsweek in February. That is not an exaggeration.

    Why not? With speeds 2,000 times faster than existing 4G networks, 5G will permit near-universal connectivity to homes, vehicles, machines, robots, and everything plugged into the Internet of Things (IoT).

    Moreover, with just about everything connected to everything else China will filch the world’s information. That is not a theoretical concern. For instance, nightly from 2012 to 2017, China surreptitiously downloaded data from the Chinese-built-and-donated headquarters of the African Union in Addis Ababa.

    Chinese parties have already been criminally taking American information, intellectual property and data for decades, worth hundreds of billions of dollars a year. This continuing crime is essential to China’s implementation of numerous industrial policies, especially the controversial “Made in China 2025” initiative, a decade-long program to achieve dominance in technology sectors, including 5G.

    Theft is by no means the full extent of the harm. China, with control of 5G, will be in a position to remotely manipulate the world’s devices. In peacetime, Beijing could have the ability to drive cars off cliffs, unlock front doors, and turn off pacemakers. In war, Beijing could paralyze critical infrastructure.

    “China’s game,” Goldman wrote in an e-mail, “is to control the broadband, and then the e-commerce, and then the e-finance, and then all the tech startups servicing the ‘ecosystem,’ and then the logistics.”

    As he told me this year, “The world will become a Chinese company store.”

    There is no mystery to how Beijing thinks it will grab control of the store. The Chinese will use Huawei Technologies.

    Huawei, built on stolen U.S. technology, is the world’s leading telecom-equipment manufacturer and is fast becoming the world’s 5G provider. As Goldman writes, “Huawei has signed equipment agreements with every telecom provider on the Eurasian continent.”

    Beijing, since Huawei’s founding in 1987, has been subsidizing sales of the company’s equipment and otherwise promoting its wares. No prizes for guessing why. As Senator Marsha Blackburn told Fox News in July, Huawei is Beijing’s “mechanism for spying.” For instance, Beijing pilfered data from the African Union through Huawei servers located in the building the Chinese donated.

    So, Huawei is a dagger aimed at the heart of America, and as the unnamed adviser quoted by Goldman suggests, the threat is a mortal one.

    There are various strategies for meeting China’s 5G challenge, but the most direct one is crippling Huawei. The Trump administration has taken steps to do so, but now that effort is on the verge of collapse.

    In fact, the Commerce Department looks set to support that dangerous Chinese firm. On Sunday, in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Bangkok, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said his department will “very shortly” grant exemptions from its Entity List designation to allow sales to Huawei.

    “We’re in good shape, we’re making good progress, and there’s no natural reason why it couldn’t be,” Ross told the business channel.

    In May, Ross’s Commerce Department added the Chinese telecom-equipment provider to its Entity List, so that American businesses needed prior approval to sell or license to Huawei the products and technology covered by U.S. export regulations. Since then, Commerce has granted two 90-day waivers from these prohibitions. The second waiver will expire November 19.

    Commerce, it appears, will not issue another across-the-board waiver but will instead grant exemptions to specific companies. Ross said he has received 260 waiver requests.

    Granting waivers would be a grave mistake. “The United States,” Brandon Weichert of The Weichert Report told me, “is letting China off the hook.”

    Ross and others argue that the individual exemptions are justified because Huawei can obtain items either from China itself — Huawei has developed its Kirin chipset, said to be comparable to Qualcomm products — or from other countries. He argues that U.S. companies might as well be the ones making the sales. At issue are semiconductors from principally Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.

    Ross is thinking too small. The United States, instead of trying to make sales, should be stopping everyone from selling to Huawei.

    America has the power to cut off all sales. Japan and South Korea are formal military allies of the United States, and Taiwan, although no longer a treaty partner, is even more dependent on Washington for its security. Because Huawei poses a critical threat to everyone, it is not clear why Washington should not pull out all the stops to get Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese suppliers to cut off the Chinese company.

    Taipei says Washington has not asked Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the giant chip supplier, to end sales to Huawei. The issue, therefore, is why has the United States not even made a request.

    Up to now, the Trump administration has been trying to persuade, sometimes nudging friends and partners. American officials have, for instance, said they might reduce intelligence sharing with countries maintaining Huawei gear in their 5G networks.

    That is too mild. Given the importance of the issue, the Trump administration should be forcing others — Japan, South Korea, Taiwan — to make a choice: sell to Huawei or sell to the world’s largest market, America’s. Last year, America’s merchandise trade deficit with Japan was $67.2 billion. The comparable figures were $17.8 billion for South Korea, and $15.2 billion for Taiwan.

    U.S. officials have been telling other countries not to buy Huawei 5G gear, but if they should not be buying Huawei, then Americans should not be supplying that Chinese company either.

    Let’s put Huawei out of business, not support its efforts to harm us.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 19:45

  • Self-Driving Uber That Killed Pedestrian In 2018 Couldn't Detect Jaywalkers, NTSB Says
    Self-Driving Uber That Killed Pedestrian In 2018 Couldn't Detect Jaywalkers, NTSB Says

    An Uber vehicle that struck and killed a pedestrian in March 2018 had what are being called “serious software flaws” that led to the tragic incident.

    The vehicle reportedly didn’t have the ability to recognize jaywalkers, according to a new report from engadget, who cited a report prepared by the NTSB. The safety agency blamed Uber’s software for not being able to recognize the victim of the accident as a pedestrian crossing the street. The vehicle didn’t calculate that it could potentially collide with the woman until just 1.2 seconds before impact, at which point it was too late to brake.  

    The NTSB said that Uber’s system “did not include a consideration for jaywalking pedestrians.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    In fact, the report says that the system detected her about 6 seconds before impact, but didn’t classify her as a pedestrian:

    Although the [system] detected the pedestrian nearly six seconds before impact … it never classified her as a pedestrian, because she was crossing at a location without a crosswalk [and] the system design did not include a consideration for jaywalking pedestrians.

    After recognizing the pedestrian (too late) the vehicle then wasted a second trying to calculate an alternative path or allowing the driver to take control. Uber has since eliminated this function in a software update. 

    Uber vehicles have failed to identify roadway hazards in at least two other cases, the report notes. In one, a vehicle struck a bicycle lane post that had bent into a roadway. In another, a driver was forced to take control of the vehicle to avoid an oncoming vehicle. The driver still wound up striking a parked car. 

    In the 7 months leading up to the pedestrian accident, Uber vehicles had been involved in 37 accidents, 33 of which involved other vehicles striking Uber test cars.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Uber began using “significantly revised software” in December 2018 when it began testing again. Simulating the Arizona incident with the new software, Uber said it would have now detected the pedestrian 289 feet before impact and would have had four seconds to brake before impact at a speed of 43.2 mph. 

    “The average stopping distance for a human is about 130 feet at that speed, including reaction time,” the report notes. This means that the vehicle would have likely been able to stop and avoid the accident.

    Meanwhile, the NTSB plans on meeting on November 19 to determine the cause of the accident. Prosecutors have absolved Uber of liability but are still weighing the idea of criminal charges against the driver. 

    You can read the full NTSB report on the incident here


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 19:25

  • Breaking Open A Black Hole: The World's Most Dangerous Experiment
    Breaking Open A Black Hole: The World's Most Dangerous Experiment

    Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

    2012 was a big year for black holes. Or, rather, for our understanding of them. First, Scientific American published a moderately terrifying paper titled “Black Holes are Everywhere” and then a team of researchers at Princeton University numerically solved the Einstein-hydrodynamic equations in order to determine that black holes are, in fact, way easier to create than previously thought. Their findings showed that the formation of a black hole requires considerably less energy than previous calculations suggested. Meanwhile, perhaps at least partly because of these revelations, concern over the world-destroying possibility–no matter how unlikely–of a man-made particle collider opening up an Earth-swallowing black hole has remained omnipresent in the larger conversation around atomic research.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The “Ultrarelativistic Black Hole Formation” study from Princeton University, published in 2013, developed new computer models which they utilized to show that the formation of a black hole would actually require less than half the energy — 2.4 times less, to be precise — than previous research had determined. The study reports that the researchers found that “the threshold for black hole formation is lower (by a factor of a few) than simple hoop conjecture estimates, and, moreover, near this threshold two distinct apparent horizons first form postcollision and then merge.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    (Click to enlarge)

    Credit: W. E. East and F. Pretorius, Phys. Rev. Lett. (2013)

    As a report at Phys.org explains, “Researchers know that it is theoretically possible to create black holes because of Einstein’s Theory of Relativity—particularly the part describing the relationship between energy and mass—increasing the speed of a particle causes its mass to increase as well.” This is what drove the Princeton researchers to form a computer model based on Einstein’s original hydrodynamic equations. The model “provides a virtual window for viewing what happens when two particles collide—they focus their energies on each other and together create a combined mass that pushes gravity to its limit and as a result spawns a very tiny black hole. That result was expected—what was surprising was that the team found that their model showed that such a collision and result would require 2.4 times less energy than has been previously calculated to produce such a tiny black hole.”

    And our galaxy is positively chock-full of them. It’s not just the famous supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, but scores of smaller black holes as well. Scientific American’s Black Holes are Everywhere tells readers that “most of the holes in our galaxy are perhaps 4 or 5 solar masses, and they’re teeny, with horizons of only about 12 km in radius. But there have to be tens of thousands of them, the inevitable remnants of the short lives of huge stars.”

    This news fed into fears that “Mad Scientists Performing Universe-Breaking Experiments” were flying a bit too close to the sun (so to speak) by conducting experiments at the European Organization for Nuclear Research’s (CERN) Large Hadron Collider (LHC) with the potential to open up microscopic black holes with potentially disastrous consequences. These concerns surfaced before the LHC — an underground accelerator which forms a ring with a diameter of 5 miles near Geneva, Switzerland — was ever switched on. A 2008 report from NASA succinctly titled “The Day the World Didn’t End” tells readers that bringing the accelerator online “did not trigger the creation of a microscopic black hole. And that black hole did not start rapidly sucking in surrounding matter faster and faster until it devoured the Earth, as sensationalist news reports had suggested it might.”

    The fear around these larger-than-life experiments was so potent and widespread that CERN has an entire page on their website dedicated to the Frequently Asked Question “Will CERN generate a black hole?and even the Princeton scientists addressed it in their academic report, noting that even with the new calculations finding that black holes require much less energy to open up than previously thought, opening up a black hole big enough to collapse the earth would still require billions of times more energy than the LHC is capable of generating. What’s more, even if and when a black hole did open up in the collider, it would disappear just as quickly thanks to an effect called Hawking radiation. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    (Click to enlarge)

    Source: https://science.nasa.gov/&nbsp;

    While fears of the Armageddon-causing potential of these microscopic black holes may have been overblown, however, the fact that the particle can open up these tiny black holes was then and remains now an absolute truth. Even CERN’s FAQ page concedes that “The LHC will not generate black holes in the cosmological sense. However, some theories suggest that the formation of tiny ‘quantum’ black holes may be possible.” Of course, the page goes on to reassure concerned readers that “the observation of such an event would be thrilling in terms of our understanding of the Universe; and would be perfectly safe.”

    Nevertheless, there are still some scientists who think we are right to be worried about these experiments that are probing the boundaries of physics. Just last year the well-respected (not to mention knighted) British scientist Sir Martin Rees published a warning to take fears around the LHC seriously in his book “On the Future.” As paraphrased by NBC’s science news site MACH,the particles crashing about inside an accelerator could unleash bits of ‘strange matter’ that shrink Earth into a ball 300 feet across. In another [scenario], the experiments could create a microscopic black hole that would inexorably gnaw away at our planet from the inside. In the most extreme scenario Rees describes, a physics mishap could cause space itself to decay into a new form that wipes out everything from here to the farthest star.” Rees himself recognizes that these scenarios are extremely unlikely, but in the author’s own words, “given the stakes, they should not be ignored.”

    And now that the Event Horizon Telescope has successfully captured the first-ever image of a black hole, scientists are dreaming up ever more radical future experiments. Let’s just hope that as scientists continue to push against the limitations of human knowledge and ability the headlines continue to read “The Day the World Didn’t End.” Or that we continue to have headlines at all. 


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 19:05

  • In Latest Saudi Shakedown, Aramco "Taps" Prince Al-Waleed For IPO Money
    In Latest Saudi Shakedown, Aramco "Taps" Prince Al-Waleed For IPO Money

    Back in November 2017, a number of prominent Saudi Arabian princes, government ministers, and business people were arrested in Saudi Arabia a few weeks after the creation of an anti-corruption committee led by Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. Among them was one of Saudi Arabia’s wealthiest men, billionaire Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal, who along with the other arrested individuals was confined in the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton and was only released months later after he pledged an unknown amount of money to the Saudi treasury. While the Crown Prince dubbed the arrests an anti-corruption exercise, it was plain that Saudi Arabia, then facing a gaping budget deficit had engaged in nothing short of a massive extortive shakedown. 

    Two years later Saudi Arabia is engaging in a similar shakedown, only this time instead of very broad “uses of funds”, it hopes to narrow down the extorted money solely for one purpose – to get more “willing” Aramco anchor investors.

    And just like in 2017, Prince Al-Waleed – one of the largest investors in Twitter – is once again in the crosshairs.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    As Bloomberg reports, one day after China tentatively agreed to invest $5 to $10 billion in the Aramco mega IPO which has so far found precisely zero anchor investors, Saudi Arabia was “negotiating commitments” from its wealthiest citizens to buy stock in the Aramco initial public offering. Translation: MbS gave his oligarchs a choice – invest in Aramco, or spend some more time in the Riyadh Ritz Carlton. Among those Riyadh has reportedly approached include the Olayan family and Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal to low-profile tycoons in the oil producer’s backyard.

    Following polite but stern and “convincing” discussions with MbS and his goon squad, the billionaire Olayans, who own a major stake in Credit Suisse, are said to be considering buying several hundred million U.S. dollars worth of Aramco shares, according to the people. Prince Alwaleed – who knows too well what happens if he disagrees with the Crown Prince – has also “held talks” to commit a significant amount to the IPO.

    Many others have also been ordered to “volunteer” their funds for the upcoming IPO according to Bloomberg: Aramco representatives have been seeking an investment from the Almajdouie family, whose businesses range from distributing Hyundai cars in the kingdom to a large logistics operation. They have also approached members of the Al-Turki clan, who are involved in fields from real estate to general trading, food distribution and ports.

    Even though Bloomberg claims that so far there’s no certainty the wealthy investors will place orders, we beg to differ and suggest that when told by the government to buy, they will buy… and will do so at any valuation, even an insane one. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has long insisted the state oil company is worth $2 trillion, a figure that many Western fund managers have balked at, with some proposing a valuation as low as $1 trillion (or less, depending on the price of oil).


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 18:45

  • When Is A Whistleblower, Not A Whistleblower?
    When Is A Whistleblower, Not A Whistleblower?

    Authored by Renee Parsons via Off-Guardian.org,

    For those readers who care more about Donald Trump, Obama’s legacy or the Republican/Democrat parties rather than the Rule of Law and what remains of the US Constitution, the following scenario should be a Giant Wake up Call.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    As the result of an anonymous “whistleblower” Complaint filed against President Trump on August 12, the House Intel Committee conducted a series of closed door hearings that violated Sixth Amendment protections while relying on an anonymous WB. 

    Right away, those hearings morphed into an impeachment inquiry that took on the spectacle of a clumsy kerfuffle not to be taken seriously – except they were.

    There is an essential Ukraine backstory which began with the US initiating the overthrow of its democratically elected President Yanukovych in 2014.

    Fast forward to Russiagate followed by Ukrainegate and an impeachment inquiry with Trump telling newly elected Ukraine President Zelensky in their now infamous July 25th conversation:

    I would like you to find out what happened with this whole situation in Ukraine; they say Crowdstrike.  The server they say, Ukraine has it<.”

    In a nutshell, possession of the CrowdStrike server is crucial to revealing the Democratic hierarchy’s role in initiating Russiagate as the Democrats are having a major snit-fit that now threatens the constitutional foundation of the country.

    On October 31st the House voted to initiate a formal impeachment inquiry based on  still mysterious Whistleblower’s allegations. At the time, there was still no confirmation of who the shadowy Whistleblower was or whether a Whistleblower even existed.

    It is a fact that most whistleblowers bring the transgression proudly forward into the public light for the specific purpose of exposing the deeds that deserve to be exposed.  At great personal cost, they then provide a credible case for why this offense is illegal or a violation of the public trust and deserves to be made public.

    This alleged WB, however, defies the traditional definition of a WB who most often experiences the wrong-doing first hand and from a personal vantage while revealing said wrong-doing as a function within an agency of their employment.

    This WB’s identity has been protected from public disclosure by TPTB, shrouded in mystery and suspicion as if fearful of public scrutiny or that his ‘truth’ would crumble under interrogation and not be greeted with unanimity.  What is clear is that this WB had no direct experience but only second-hand knowledge of events which is defined as ‘hear say’ evidence. While inadmissible in a Court of law, why should ‘hear say’ be allowed when the subject is as profound as impeachment of a President?

    Real-life CIA whistleblower Jon Kiriakou who served 22 months in prison, suggested this “whistleblower is not a whistleblower but a anonymous CIA analyst within the Democratic House staff.”  When was the last time a real whistleblower was ‘protected’ by the government from public exposure.

    There has been no explanation as to why this informant’s identity is necessarily been kept secret – and not just from the public but from Members of Congress especially as Republican Members have been unable to question him. 

    There has been no further information regarding a second “Whistleblower” who allegedly came forward to corroborate the first WB although why it is necessary to corroborate that which has already been publicly revealed remains questionable.

    In a once unimaginable example of CIA–Democratic collusion,  it turns out that the identity of the alleged WB is not such a secret after all. 

    Far from the public eyes of Americans, there has been a coordinated effort to stifle any exposure of his identity; presumably to prevent any revelation of the underpinnings of exactly how this convoluted scheme of malfeasance was organized.  And as his name and political history within the Obama Administration and Democratic party are publicly scrutinized, it makes perfect sense why the TPTB would prefer to prevent public hearings or keep the WB’s identity under wraps.

    His identity should have been public knowledge weeks ago and yet it took Real Clear Investigations, an alt-news website to publicly reveal what has been well known within the DC bubble for some weeks. 

    The answer to the title question is that this WB is instead a very well connected partisan lackey and CIA operative.

    The alleged WB is said to be a 33 year old CIA analyst by the name of Eric Ciaramella who was an Obama White House holdover at the National Security Council until mid 2017. 

    Consequently, he has deep partisan ties to former VP Joe Biden, former CIA Director John Brennan and former National Security Advisor Susan Rice as well as the DNC establishment.  And here’s where it get especially interesting; Ciaramella specializes in Russia and Ukraine, is fluent in both languages, ran the Ukraine desk at the Obama NSC and had close association with  Ukrainian DNC hyper-activist Alexandra Chalupa.

    Ciaramella’s bio reads like a litany of the political turmoil that has consumed the nation for the last three years as it is reported that he had a role in initiating the Trump-Russia collusion conspiracy while at the Obama White House and worked with Biden who was the Obama point-person on Ukraine issues in 2015 and 2016 when  $3 billion USAID funding was being embezzled.  

    Clearly, Ciaramella has a wealth of information to share regarding the Biden Quid pro Quo scandal which is currently being muzzled by the corporate media.

    With Ciaramella’s identity revealed, a former NSC staffer who was present during the Trump-Zelensky July 25th conversation testified that he saw nothing illegal in the talk.  Tim Morrison told the House Intel Committee that “I want to be clear, I was not concerned that anything illegal was discussed” and that the transcript of the call which was declassified and released by the White House  “accurately and completely reflects the substance of the call.” 

    As a result, Ciaramella is now refusing to publicly testify before the House or Senate Intel Committees.

    More recently, Mark Zaid, attorney for Ciaramella has said that his client would accept written questions from Republicans on the House Intel Committee and that his client “wants to be as bipartisan as possible throughout this process while remaining anonymous.”  

    Seriously?  He’s got to be kidding.

    Did the reality of being required to testify in public just recently dawn on Ciaramella or was he not expecting that his every word and utterance would be scrutinized before the entire world?  Is he so unfamiliar with the Sixth Amendment that he believes a Defendant’s right to confront his accuser should not apply to him or in a Presidential impeachment inquiry?

    Did he actually believe he could make anonymous impeachment accusations against the President of the US without a ripple or without having to directly face questions from House and Senate Republicans?  Who did he think would protect him from public scrutiny?

    Given Ciaramella’s extensive partisan history since 2015 and his national security experience with Susan Rice in the Obama White House, it will be interesting if he receives a mention in the IG report on the abuse of FISA warrants and whether Ciaramella’s name has moved to the top of the Durham interviewee list.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 18:25

    Tags

  • US Massacre In Mexico Requires Washington To Act, Here's What Could Happen Next 
    US Massacre In Mexico Requires Washington To Act, Here's What Could Happen Next 

    On Tuesday, nine Americans – a large family of what appear to be associated with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints – were killed during a highway ambush by drug cartel members. 

    The story sent shockwaves across the American press, President Trump, in a series of tweets, offered US assistance in bringing the criminals to justice. “If Mexico needs or requests help in cleaning out these monsters, the United States stands ready, willing & able to get involved and do the job quickly and effectively.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The slaughter of innocent Americans this week is a clear understanding that cartel wars in Mexico are evolving into a dangerous phase where foreigners, women, and children won’t be spared by cartels. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has so far been more than willing to work with the Trump administration on border security but might have to readjust his approach in fighting cartels after the deaths of the Americans. 

    AMLO’s strategy in creating work programs and opportunities for Mexican youth isn’t working as cartel wars devastate many parts of the country. 

    Former anti-drug prosecutor Samuel Gonzalez told AP that “sooner or later, the government is going to have to adjust its strategy.”

    Perhaps, the deaths of Americans this week is a serious wake-up call for AMLO and his administration to change the script or face tremendous backlash from the Trump administration. 

    “It is not that the government would have to declare war on the drug cartels, it is rather that the drug traffickers have declared war on the government,” Gonzalez said, “and in that situation the government has to respond in legitimate self-defense and with proportional force.”

    Jacob Hornberger, the president of The Future of Freedom Foundation, said Washington officials have been contemplating three strategies over how to respond to the massacre in Mexico: 

    • Option 1: Have the Mexican military crackdown even more fiercely than it already has during the past 10 years of fierce military drug warfare.
    • Option 2: Send in the US military and the CIA into Mexico.
    • Option 3. Capture the head of the Sinaloa drug cartel, extradite him to the United States, and jail him for the rest of his life.

    Hornberger finds it hard to believe that Option 1, 2, and 3 would solve the crisis, instead, he says there’s a straightforward solution that could end all of this madness: end the war on drugs. 

    “As we have been saying here at The Future of Freedom Foundation for 30 years, there is one — and only one — way to get rid of drug cartels, drug gangs, and drug lords. That way is through drug legalization, complete drug legalization. Not just marijuana. All drugs, including cocaine, heroin, meth, and opioids. Ditch them all.

    With drug legalization, the drug cartels, drug gangs, and drug lords are out out business overnight. Gone. Isn’t that what drug-war proponents say they would like to see? Well, that’s the only way to see it.

    That’s what happened, of course, when statists decided to re-legalize booze. They finally realized that they were never going to put the booze cartels, booze gangs, and booze lords out of business by cracking down on them ever more fiercely. They finally realized that the only way to achieve that goal was through legalization. And sure enough, the re-legalization of booze put them all out of business,” Hornberger wrote. 

    And the probability of the US government ending the war on drugs is very low. So it’s likely that AMLO and Washington will start increasing joint military operations against cartels in the not too distant future. 


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 18:05

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 7th November 2019

  • Brandon Smith: There Are Things Worth Fighting For, And Fates Far Worse Than Death
    Brandon Smith: There Are Things Worth Fighting For, And Fates Far Worse Than Death

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    Activism in the liberty movement often requires a painful examination of details. We look at political and economic trends, identify inconsistencies in the mainstream narrative, point out inevitable outcomes of disaster or attempts at collectivist power, and ask – “Who benefits?” Ultimately, the analysts and activists with any sense of observation come to the same conclusion: There is a contingent of financial elites embedded within the political world and the corporate world that have a specific ideology and malicious goals. They create most geopolitical and economic crisis events using puppets in government as well as influence in central banking. They then turn the consequences of these events to their advantage.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    This group is identified by their intent as well as their associations. Their intent is utter dominance through globalism to the point that national borders are erased and all trade and governance flows through a single one-world edifice that they seek to control. As Richard N. Gardner, former deputy assistant Secretary of State for International Organizations under Kennedy and Johnson, and a member of the Trilateral Commission, wrote in the April, 1974 issue of the Council on Foreign Relation’s (CFR) journal Foreign Affairs (pg. 558) in an article titled ‘The Hard Road To World Order’:

    In short, the ‘house of world order’ will have to be built from the bottom up rather than from the top down. It will look like a great ‘booming, buzzing confusion,’ to use William James’ famous description of reality, but an end run around national sovereignty, eroding it piece by piece, will accomplish much more than the old-fashioned frontal assault.”

    They want to reinvent civilization and mold it into a homogenized and highly micromanaged global hive. Within this collective, they see themselves as not only the future masters of social evolution, but also as demigods that are worshiped by the masses. And, they are willing to do almost ANYTHING to achieve this endgame.

    In an article I wrote last year titled ‘Global Elitists Are Not Human’, I outlined the connection between globalist ideology, globalist actions and the psychology of narcissistic sociopaths (narcopaths or pyschopaths). I theorized that the globalists are in fact a stark example of tightly organized psychopathy. In other words, like a criminal cartel or cult, they are a group of psychopaths that have unified their efforts to become more efficient predators. And like many psychopaths, they have conjured elaborate philosophical explanations for their abhorrent activities to the point that they seem to have developed their own disturbing brand of religion.

    There comes a moment in the life of many liberty movement activists or analysts when they are confronted with this reality: The reality that we are not fighting a faceless “system” that was built passively by mistake, or built in the name of mere random greed. No, the system is only an extension of a greater agenda and the weapon of a conspiratorial army. What we are really fighting are very evil people with psychopathic desires to dominate and destroy. Attempt to change the system without removing the cabal behind it, and you will fail every time.

    This is where we hit a wall of indecision and find ourselves at an impasse on solutions within the movement. There are even some people who argue that “nothing can be done”.

    This is, of course, a lie. Something can indeed be done. We can fight and remove the elites from the equation entirely. In fact, we have no choice but to fight if we hope to retain any semblance of our sovereignty or foundational principles. But sadly, there are people in the movement with some influence who do not seem to understand the difference between fighting to survive, and fighting to succeed.

    Let me break it down a little further…

    The liberty movement is obsessed with the concept of “survival”. We see the globalist efforts leading to the ruin of the common man’s future and we know that the threat is very real. So, we prepare; we prepare to survive, but not necessarily to prevail.

    Survival in itself is meaningless. There are many ways to stay alive. A person could just as easily sell out to the globalists and help them, and that person would probably have better “odds” of survival than I will farming my homestead as a producer and living off my preps in defiance of them. If survival alone is your goal, then you are NOT a liberty activist and you have missed the bigger picture.

    Even in the event that you can weather the storm of economic chaos or political civil war safely in an isolated retreat somewhere on a far off mountaintop, what kind of world will you be coming back to when you finally have to leave that idyllic castle? What kind of world will your children be coming back to? And their children…?

    I’m certainly not dismissing the usefulness of survival culture. I’m a big proponent of it. But there are self proclaimed survival “gurus” out there that are misleading the movement into thinking that survival is the final goal. And to this end, they have criticized people for organizing or preparing to fight the establishment. They claim it can’t be done. We’ll be “wiped off the face of the Earth”. The enemy is far too strong and what can a mere rifle do against a tank? But if survivalism requires running away and hiding like a coward from a known evil or refusing to take action for the sake of future generations, then I don’t want to be a survivalist…

    Freedom cannot be boiled down to a dream or a wish; something that might happen someday if we are able to stay alive long enough. Freedom is a responsibility that is already born into most human beings. It’s not a cheesy or childish ideal, it’s a timeless ideal. Freedom and the fight for peace and balance in the face of would-be emperors is an infinite battle. It never ends. The fight IS freedom. Without the fight, freedom disappears.

    For each person that defies collectivists and totalitarians, even at the risk of their own life, the shadow is held back another day. This is what matters, and this is what the survival purists don’t get. You have to make yourself WORTHY of surviving, by standing for principles and values that are bigger than you are. Otherwise you’re not worth a damn to anyone, even yourself.

    As for the notion of the impossible mountain; the lone rebel taking on a vast globalist army…this is not a delusional fantasy and these people are not alone. There are millions of us out there, getting ready and forming pockets of resistance. In the meantime we fight the information war, because the globalist’s most powerful weapon is not a tank or even a nuclear bomb, it’s propaganda. The ability to turn a population in on itself and cause it to self destruct is far more dangerous than any technological advancement or military marvel.

    As a long time mixed martial artist, I have seen the biggest and most intimidating opponents toppled by clever strategy and willpower. There is no such thing as an unbeatable man, nor an unbeatable army. There is always a way to prevail.

    Finally, when I consider the claim made by some people that beating the elites in a direct confrontation is a “pipe dream”, I have to ask a fundamental question: Why do these people assume we have a choice? I’ve witnessed some pretty desperate attempts at silver bullet solutions to globalism in my years in the movement, from presidential election campaigns to change a system that cannot be changed from within, to “revolutionary” cryptocurrencies that the banking elites happily invest in and co-opt.

    People misplace their faith in corrupt politicians and the rigged political process, even though they should know better by now. In the final analysis, politics is designed to keep society in stasis, frozen with inaction or fighting in the name of a false leader. Always, when the dust settles the elites escape blame and scrutiny while the public picks up the pieces and tries to understand just what happened. The current chaos surrounding Donald Trump is no different; it is only different in that Trump is a puppet whose job is to appeal directly to liberty activists. For once we’re getting recognition, but it’s not the good kind…

    And while building alternatives to the mainstream system and removing yourself from the grid is a step in the right direction, this alone is only a stop-gap. One day, the establishment will come to take what you have. There is no way around this. Narcopaths are like ravenous parasites feeding on every last morsel of humanity. They take whatever can be taken.

    The question is, when they come to digest that which you hold precious, how will you respond? Is fighting back impossible, or is it preferable to slavery? Is dying for a better tomorrow a fool’s errand, or the only errand we are put on this Earth for? These are questions that need to be answered and answered soon. The time left to ponder them is running out.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 11/07/2019 – 00:00

  • Soaring Homelessness Forces San Fran To Issue Record Housing Debt
    Soaring Homelessness Forces San Fran To Issue Record Housing Debt

    In response to a housing affordability crisis in the Bay Area, one where wages haven’t kept up with soaring home prices in the last decade, voters on Tuesday have likely given the government of the City and County of San Francisco permission to issue a $600 million affordable housing bond, the largest in the city’s history, reported KQED News.

    Preliminary results from Tuesday night’s vote showed 69% of voters supported the measure while 31% opposed it. The bill needs a two-thirds majority to pass.

    Proposition A, a project to build 2,800 units of low-income and middle-income housing to clean up the homelessness crisis on the streets of the Bay Area, could become a reality once the measure is passed.

    “It’s a big bond. It’s a lot of money and some people may have been asking themselves is this going to be meaningful to me,” said Matthias Mormino, policy analyst for Chinatown Community Development Center, an affordable housing development group in San Francisco. 

    “But being able to expand these affordable housing projects geographically in other neighborhoods is exciting,” said Mormino.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The possible passage of the largest-ever affordable housing bond is in response to the Bay Area’s homelessness crisis.

    Based on a 2017 point-in-time (PIT) estimate, 28,000 people were homeless across the area. An approximated 70% of these people were living on the streets in Santa Clara, San Francisco, and Alameda Counties. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Preliminary PIT estimates show in 2019 a 43% jump in the homeless population in Alameda Counties, 31% in Santa Clara, and 17% in San Francisco from 2017 to 2019.

    Total homeless populations in the Bay Area will likely increase through the early 2020s as wealth inequality expands. If the bill is approved, the build time for these new structures could take several years. 

    Under Proposition A, funds will be allocated to these five areas (list provided by Bloomberg): 

    • $220 million for extremely low- and low-income people
    • $150 million to repair and rebuild public housing developments
    • $150 million to acquire and construct housing for seniors
    • $60 million to acquire and rehabilitate affordable rental housing to prevent the loss of such housing and to assist middle-income city residents and workers to secure permanent housing
    • $20 million to support affordable housing for educators and employees of the San Francisco Unified School District and City College of San Francisco


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 23:40

  • CJ Hopkins Exposes The Ministry Of Wiki-Truth
    CJ Hopkins Exposes The Ministry Of Wiki-Truth

    Authored by CJ Hopkins via The Unz Review,

    OK, here’s a silly one for you.

    Have you ever wondered how all those Wikipedia articles get produced… you know, the ones you pull up on your phone to look up an actor, an author, or a recipe, or a historical or scientific fact?

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Unfortunately, one of the Consent Factory staff had an opportunity to find out recently.

    Apparently, what happened was, someone (presumably one of my readers) tried to add a reference to one of my essays to Wikipedia’s Identity Politics page. The Ministry of Wiki-Truth objected, adamantly. A low-level edit war ensued. Once the Ministers had quashed the rebellion, one of them, “Grayfell,” immediately went to the CJ Hopkins Wikipedia article and started punitively “editing” its contents for “neutrality.”

    Other Ministers soon joined in the fun. The list of my awards was summarily deleted. My debut novel, Zone 23, which I published under the Consent Factory’s literary imprint, Snoggsworthy, Swaine & Cormorant Paperbacks, was “edited” into a vanity publication that I “self-published,” probably in my mother’s basement. The “Snoggsworthy, Swaine & Cormorant” imprint (which every bookseller, library, and professional catalog recognizes) was disappeared so that my potential readers will be warned that I’m trying to trick them into buying a book that wasn’t published by a “real” (i.e., corporate) publisher, like the Penguin Group, or one of its … uh, imprints. References to my “political satire and commentary,” and to many of the alternative outlets that regularly repost my essays (like the outlet you’re probably reading this in) were also zapped, because they’re all “fake news” sites operated by Putin-Nazi agents.

    Also, given my attempted book fraud, the Wikipedia Ministers immediately launched an investigation into whether I had possibly made up my entire career. Perhaps I had invented all the productions of my plays, and my awards, and even my existence itself. I assume they have contacted my “legitimate” publishers, Bloomsbury Publishingand Broadway Play Publishing, to verify that I haven’t somehow hacked their websites and faked my other books. If they haven’t … well, they should probably get on that.

    This “editing” and pursuant investigation was overseen and approved by a senior member of the Ministry’s Arbitration Committee, Doug Weller, who is apparently a “Grandmaster Editor” or a “Lord High Togneme Vicarus” in Wiki-speak. (I kid you not … click the link.) Given Lord Weller’s supervision of the process, I think it’s probably safe to say that this was not just the work of a bunch of kids attempting to negatively impact my book sales because someone on the Internet pissed them off.

    This brouhaha was brought to my attention by the Consent Factory’s in-house Wikipedia Liaison, King Ubu (or König Ubu in German). As his job title suggests, King Ubu’s duty is to periodically check my Wikipedia article and make sure that no one has posted anything false, defamatory, or just plain weird. Naturally, when he saw how the Ministers of Wiki-Truth were punitively “editing” my page for “neutrality,” he attempted to engage them. This did not go well. I won’t go through all the gory details, but, if you’re curious, they’re here on the CJ Hopkins “talk” page (which King Ubu reports that he has copied and archived, which I find a bit paranoid, but then, I’m not an IT guy).

    Look, normally, I wouldn’t bore you with my personal affairs, but my case is just another example of how “reality” is manufactured these days. In the anti-establishment circles I move in, Wikipedia is notorious for this kind of stuff, which is unsurprising when you think about it. It’s a perfect platform for manufacturing reality, disseminating pro-establishment propaganda, and damaging people’s reputations, which is a rather popular tactic these days. The simple fact is, when you google anything, Wikipedia is usually the first link that comes up. Most people assume that what they read on the platform is basically factual and at least trying to be “objective” … which a lot of it is, but a lot of it isn’t.

    If the name Philip Cross doesn’t ring any bells, you might want to have a look into his story before you go back to uncritically surfing Wikipedia. As of May 14, 2018 (when Five Filters published this article about him and his service at the Ministry of Wiki-Truth), he had been editing Wikipedia for five years straight, every day of the week, including Christmas. He (if Cross is an actual person, and not an intelligence agency PSYOP) specializes in maliciously “editing” articles regarding anti-war activists and other anti-establishment persons. The story is too long to recount here, but have a look at this other Five Filters article. If you’re interested, that’s a good place to start.

    Or, if you don’t have time to do that, go ahead and use my case as an example. See, according to Ubu, the Ministry’s punitive “editing” of my article to make it more “neutral” began when this specific Minister (“Grayfell”) discovered (a) that I existed, and (b) that I am a leftist heretic. “Grayfell,” as it turns out, is extremely invested in maintaining a positive image of Antifa, whose Wikipedia article he actively edits, and whose honor and integrity he valiantly defends, not only from conservatives and neo-fascist bozos, but apparently also from nefarious leftist authors and political satirists like myself.

    Which … OK, I probably deserve it, right? I have satirized identity politics. I have satirized Antifa. I have satirized liberals. I don’t forbid controversial outlets (or any other outlets for that matter) from republishing my political satire and commentary, even after I was instructed to do so by the Leftism Police at CounterPunch. Jesus, I even included a link to a Breitbart article in the preceding paragraph … don’t read it, of course, it’s all a bunch of lies, notwithstanding all the supporting evidence.

    Chief among my leftist heresies, I haven’t insulted Trump nearly enough. I don’t believe he’s a “Russian asset” or the resurrection of Adolf Hitler. I believe he is the same narcissistic ass clown and self-absorbed con man he has always been. Much as I dislike the man, I’m not on board with the deep-state coup the Intelligence Community, the Democrats, and the rest of the neoliberal Resistance have been trying to stage since he won the election.

    I’m not a big fan of Intelligence agencies, generally. I don’t care much for imperialism, not even when it’s global capitalist imperialism. I do not support the global capitalist ruling classes’ War on Populism, or believe in the official Putin-Nazi narrativethat they and their servants in the corporate media have been disseminating for the last three years. I do not sing hymns to former FBI directors. I don’t believe that all conservatives are fascists, or that the working classes are all a bunch of racists, or that “America is under attack.

    Let’s face it, I’m a terrible leftist.

    So it’s probably good that “Grayfell” and his pals discovered me and are feverishly “correcting” my article, and God knows how many other articles that don’t conform to Wikipedia “policy,” or Philip Cross’ political preferences, or Antifa’s theory of “preemptive self-defense,” or whatever other non-ideological, totally objective editorial standards the “volunteer editors” at the Ministry of Wiki-Truth (who have nothing to do with the Intelligence Community, or Antifa, or any other entities like that) consensually decide to robotically adhere to.

    How else are they going to keep their content “neutral,” “unbiased,” and “reliably sourced,” so that people can pull up Wikipedia on their phones and verify historical events (which really happened, exactly as they say they did), or scientific “facts” (which are indisputable) … or whether Oceania is at War with EastAsia, or Eurasia, or the Terrorists, or Russia?

    Oh, and please don’t worry about my Wikipedia article. König Ubu assures me he has done all he could to restore it some semblance of accuracy, and that the Ministers have moved on to bigger fish. Of course, who knows what additional “edits” might suddenly become a top priority once “Grayfell” or Antifa gets wind of this piece.

    *  *  *

    C. J. Hopkins is an award-winning American playwright, novelist and political satirist based in Berlin. His plays are published by Bloomsbury Publishing (UK) and Broadway Play Publishing (USA). His debut novel, ZONE 23, is published by Snoggsworthy, Swaine & Cormorant Paperbacks. He can be reached at cjhopkins.com or consentfactory.org.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 23:20

  • White Men's Lives Matter – How Many People Are Killed By Police In The US?
    White Men's Lives Matter – How Many People Are Killed By Police In The US?

    Almost 1000 people in the U.S. have been shot and killed by police in 2018. In 2017 and 2016, about an equal amount of people died this way, according to the Washington Post. As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz shows in the below infographic, most of those killed by police are male and white.

    While around 450 of the deceased were white, 229 were Black. This is a relatively high share, keeping in mind that close to 13 percent of Americans belong to that race group.

    Infographic: How Many People Are Killed by Police in the U.S.? | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Around half of those shot and killed by police carried a gun themselves. But in the case of more than a hundred people, they were either unarmed or it is unknown if they carried a weapon. In 35 cases, the deceased had been seen with a toy weapon that was mistaken for the real thing.

    Out of the nearly 1000 killed, more than 200 were listed as having shown signs of mental illness.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 23:00

  • Sidewalk Labs' Smart-Cities Will Create A For-Profit Social Credit System
    Sidewalk Labs' Smart-Cities Will Create A For-Profit Social Credit System

    Via MassPrivateI blog,

    Smart city surveillance, is much worse than anyone could have imagined.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Two years ago, I revealed how a CIA “signature school” was installing thousands of CCTV cameras and microphones in smart cities, but Sidewalk Labs wants to take public surveillance to a whole new level.

    The Globe And Mail revealed that Sidewalk Labs “Yellow Book,” a guidebook designed to help Google employees build a smart city from the ground up, would give their employees control of public services.

    Yellow Book describes how Google plans to turn at least four major cities in North America into Sidewalk Labs smart cities.  

    “The book proposed a community that could house 100,000 people on a site of up to 1,000 acres, and contains case studies for three potential sites in the United States: Detroit, Denver, and Alameda, Calif. It also includes a map with dots detailing many other potential sites for Sidewalk’s first project, including a dot placed on the shores of Lake Athabasca in northern Saskatchewan.”

    The fourth area, Toronto’s waterfront, has received lots of criticism from privacy experts. With some going so far as to call it “surveillance capitalism.”

    “The smart city project on the Toronto waterfront is the most highly evolved version to date of … surveillance capitalism” US venture capitalist Roger McNamee wrote to the city council, suggesting Google will use “algorithms to nudge human behavior” in ways to “favor its business.” (To join the campaign against Sidewalk Toronto click here.) 

    The Yellow Book allegedly reveals how Google wants to control city services like Disney World does in Florida.

    “Sidewalk will require tax and financing authority to finance and provide services, including the ability to impose, capture and reinvest property taxes,” the book said. The company would also create and control its own public services, including charter schools, special transit systems and a private road infrastructure.”

    Sidewalk Labs wants to control the police and justice system

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    credit: UK Reuters

    The Globe and Mail also revealed that Sidewalk Labs wants to control a cities’ police department and justice system.

    “(Sidewalk notes it would ask for local policing powers similar to those granted to universities) and the possibility of an alternative approach to jail, using data from so-called root-cause assessment tools. This would guide officials in determining a response when someone is arrested, such as sending someone to a substance abuse center.”

    People could literally be arrested by Sidewalk Lab’s police and and sentenced by their judges.

    Sidewalk Lab’s police could use “unique data identifiers” to track anyone they want.

    Early on, the company notes that a Sidewalk neighborhood would collect real-time position data for all entities – including people. The company would also collect a historical record of where things have been and “about where they are going. Furthermore, unique data identifiers would be generated for every person, business or object registered in the district, helping devices communicate with each other.”

    Google’s “SensorVault” already gives police a disturbing amount of personal information about a person’s cellphone.

    The data Google is turning over to law enforcement is so precise that one deputy police chief said it “shows the whole pattern of life.”

    The Globe and Mail also revealed that Sidewalk Labs’ smart cities could use a tiered (social credit) level of services system that rewards certain people while punishing those who wish to remain anonymous.

    “People choosing to share in-home fire safety sensor data could receive advice on health and safety related to air quality, or provide additional information to first responders in case of an emergency. Those choosing to remain anonymous would not be able to access all of the area’s services: Automated taxi services would not be available to anonymous users, and some merchants might be unable to accept cash, the book warns.”

    Forcing people to give up their privacy to receive health and safety advice, emergency services and forcing them to use credit cards is just one more example of smart city “comply or deny” mentality that wants to know everything about everyone.

    Google’s Sidewalk Labs turns smart cities into a for-profit social credit system.

    Harvard University professor Shoshana Zuboff said,

    “Sidewalk Labs was like a for-profit China that would use digital infrastructure to modify and direct social and political behavior.”

    If you combine a corporate run police department and justice system with real-time position data, CCTV cameras, social media monitoring, Stingray devices, SensorVault and a tiered social credit system it doesn’t take a privacy expert to see just how dangerous smart city surveillance really is.

    Smart cities should really be called “comply or deny cities” because corporations will force people to modify their social and political behavior or they will be denied public services, just like China does.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 22:40

  • The Art Of The Deal – China Approves Brazil For Shipments Of Swine-Offal
    The Art Of The Deal – China Approves Brazil For Shipments Of Swine-Offal

    The Art of the Deal is alive and well in how China is acquiring foreign pig products. 

    China’s recent move to smash pig prices in the Western Hemisphere by blocking shipments from the US, let their cold storage facilities swell, then go to surrounding countries and make heavily discounted deals.

    This is precisely what happened in Brazil, where China signed the first-ever trade deal with Brazil to start receiving shipments of swine offal, or organ meats (hearts, tongues, stomachs, and entrails).

    Brazil Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina told reporters Monday that it didn’t previously have access to China’s swine-offal market.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Now it does, and JBS SA and BRF SA are the Brazilian meat companies that will immediately start sending pig byproducts to China. 

    The US had a significant influence on China’s swine offal market, but since China slapped 50% tariffs last year on US pork — trade between both countries has sagged. 

    Brazil’s swine offal sales to China are expected to soar in the coming months. The Asian nation has been desperately searching for pig products around the world as its domestic herd has been halved this year thanks to African swine fever. 

    The trade deal with Brazil comes at a time when the US and China are attempting to agree on a “Phase 1” trade deal of their own. 

    It’s not really a comprehensive trade deal, it’s just China buying a lot of agriculture products from the US — but has been packaged up by the Trump administration as the “greatest” deal ever to pump stocks. 

     


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 22:20

  • Are You A Moral Grandstander?
    Are You A Moral Grandstander?

    Authored by Scott Barry Kaufman via Scientific American,

    Do you strongly agree with the following statements?

    • When I share my moral/political beliefs, I do so to show people who disagree with me that I am better than them.

    • I share my moral/political beliefs to make people who disagree with me feel bad.

    • When I share my moral/political beliefs, I do so in the hopes that people different than me will feel ashamed of their beliefs.

    If so, then you may be a card-carrying moral grandstander. Of course it’s wonderful to have a social cause that you believe in genuinely, and which you want to share with the world to make it a better place. But moral grandstanding comes from a different place.

    First defined and delineated in the moral philosophy literature, moral grandstanding can be defined as “the use and abuse of moral talk to seek status, to promote oneself, or to boost your own brand.”

    A moral grandstander is therefore a person who frequently uses public discussion of morality and politics to impress others with their moral qualities. Crucially, these individuals are primarily motivated by the desire to enhance their own status or ranking among their peers.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Let’s face it: Moral grandstanding seems to be everywhere these days. As clinical psychologist Joshua Grubbs notes, “Perhaps, just perhaps, part of the reason so many of us are so awful to each other so much of the time on here is related to a desire to show off to likeminded others. In essence, sometimes we behave poorly in an effort to gain the respect and esteem of folks like us.”

    Interested in scientifically investigating this phenomenon, Grubbs teamed up with the philosophers who first defined moral grandstanding– Justin Tosi and Brandon Warmke– as well as the psychologists A. Shanti James and W. Keith Campbell. Across 6 studies (involving 2 pre-registrations involving nationally representative samples), 2 longitudinal designs, and over 6,000 participants, these are their core findings:

    1. Moral grandstanders (those scoring high on the moral grandstanding survey) tend to also score high in narcissistic characteristics and also tend to report status-seeking as their fundamental social motive.

    2. There is no relationship between moral grandstanding and political affiliation. However there is a link between moral grandstanding and political polarization: people on the far left and far right are both more likely to score higher in moral grandstanding characteristics than those who are more moderate democrats and republicans.

    3. Moral grandstanders are more likely to report greater moral and political conflict in their daily lives (e.g., “I lost friends because of my political/moral beliefs”) and they report getting into more fights with others on social media because of their political or moral beliefs. This correlation was found even after controlling for other personality traits, and continued over the course of a one-month longitudinal study.

    4. Grandstanders were more likely to report antagonistic behavior over time, such as attacking others online, or trying to publicly shame someone online because they held a different moral or political belief.

    Of course, moral grandstanding is not the only factor predicting public conflict, and not every instance of public moral or political sharing is motivated by narcissistic motives. As Grubbs notes, a real difficulty in understanding socially toxic behaviors “is that oftentimes, the same behavior (by appearance) may be driven by vastly different motives, and intent matters quite a bit in interpreting those behaviors.”

    Nevertheless, since we are such a social species, the human need for social status is very pervasive, and often our attempts at sharing our moral and political beliefs on public social media platforms involve a mix of genuine motives with social status motives. As one team of psychologists put it, yes, you probably are “virtue signaling” (a closely related concept to moral grandstanding), but that doesn’t mean that your outrage is necessarily inauthentic. It just means that we often have a subconscious desire to signal our virtue, which when not checked, can spiral out of control and cause us to denigrate or be mean to others in order to satisfy that desire. When the need for status predominates, we may even lose touch with what we truly believe, or even what is actually the truth.

    To be sure, the human drive for social status can be a great driver of growth and goodness in the world. It really depends on whether one has a healthy regulation of this fundamental human need. Interestingly enough, Grubbs and his colleagues found that moral grandstanding motivations are reminiscent of the two different routes to social status found in the psychological literature: dominance and prestige. The dominance pathway to status is paved with hubris, deceit, and aggression, whereas the prestigious pathway to status is paved with pride for one’s authentic accomplishments, and the desire for personal growth and connection with others.

    Likewise, moral grandstanding can be fueled by either:

    • The need to seek social status by dominating others (“When I share my moral/political beliefs, I do so to show people who disagree with me that I am better than them”) 

    • The need to seek status through being a knowledgeable and virtuous example (“I want to be on the right side of history about moral/political issues”, “If I don’t share my views, others will be less likely to learn the truth about moral/political matters”, “I often share my moral/political beliefs in the hope of inspiring people to be more passionate about their beliefs.”)

    The researchers found that the dominance path to social status was much more strongly linked to antagonistic behaviors and conflict in everyday life compared to the more authentic/prestigious route to social status. Maybe so much of the strife seen on social media could be prevented if before hitting “Tweet”, we asked ourselves: “Do I truly believe in the importance of this cause/idea/belief or am I mainly just saying this to gain status from my peers and take down those who disagree?”

    Of course, gaining social status from saying what one truly believes is a rewarding outcome, but when advancing your brand becomes the sole motivating force behind all of your political and moral pronouncements, that might not be the best route to getting at the real truth about what will actually help advance an important cause, not to mention your own well-being and happiness.

    Hopefully more research along these lines will help advance our understanding of this important individual differences variable and how this factor is currently playing out in this divided moral and political landscape.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 22:00

  • As US Moves To Ban Huawei 5G, CEO Says Good Riddance Ahead Of Great Decoupling 
    As US Moves To Ban Huawei 5G, CEO Says Good Riddance Ahead Of Great Decoupling 

    The great economic decoupling has started, this is something that we’ve warned about since the trade war began. Years of elevated financial market volatility will follow as the world is sliced in half, with one side being controlled by the US, and the other side controlled by China.

    The latest evidence of decoupling comes from Huawei Technologies CEO Ren Zhengfei, who spoke with The Wall Street Journal and said: “We can survive very well without the US. The China-U.S. trade talks are not something I’m concerned with.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    In May, the Commerce Department blacklisted Huawei, the world’s largest 5G equipment and smartphone producer, from doing business US firms.

    Zhengfei said, “we have virtually no business dealings in the US” since the blacklisting.

    Huawei was a major buyer of US semiconductors before it was blacklisted. Sales figures showed the company bought $11 billion of technology from US suppliers in 2018. The blacklisting has forced Huawei to find alternative sourcing.

    Zhengfei said the company is rapidly expanding its 5G network products across the world without US chips. He said 5,000 5G base stations are being constructed every month.

    Despite the blacklisting, Huawei is still purchasing some chips from US firms that produce offshore, where US restrictions don’t apply.

    Will Zhang, Huawei’s president of corporate strategy, told The Journal that purchasing levels of US chips are at 70% to 80% of its previous level.

    The Trump administration has spent at least 15 months creating Sinophobia across the world, by warning countries not to use Huawei 5G equipment because of spying concerns.

    Zhengfei has denied the allegations that it spies on its customers or any government, though the Trump administration has labeled Huawei a national security threat.

    Beijing views Huawei as a centerpiece of its economic success and is considered an essential piece of any future trade deal between the US.

    The next several quarters will be critical for Huawei. That is if it can continue sourcing most of its chips from alternative producers and continue dominating the global smartphone space and the build-out of 5G networks across the world, then that will indicate the great decoupling from West to East is well underway.

     


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 21:40

  • When They Can Take Your Children Away… How Free Are You?
    When They Can Take Your Children Away… How Free Are You?

    Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

    George Reby was driving from New Jersey to Tennessee to pick up a car he had purchased on eBay when he was stopped for speeding.

    Like many Americans, George felt he had nothing to hide from the police. So when the officer asked him if he was carrying any large amounts of cash, he admitted he had $22,000 on him because he was buying a car.

    George was able to show the officer his eBay bids, and that the sale was legitimate. He was able to demonstrate that he has income from his job as an insurance adjuster.

    But none of that mattered. The cop seized George’s money on the spot.

    Later, in a court hearing that George was not allowed to participate in, the judge allowed the police to keep the money even though George was never charged with a crime.

    There was no proof of wrongdoing. Even more, George had proof that there was NO wrongdoing.

    “You live in the United States, you think you have rights — and apparently you don’t,” George commented later.

    He was forced to hire an attorney and jump through a ton of bureaucratic hoops over a period of several months before the state of Tennessee finally returned his money.

    But not everyone is so lucky.

    Numerous victims of the Tenaha police department in East Texas (population ~1,300 people) never got their money back.

    One victim had his baby taken by child services because he chose to fight the town when they seized his assets without cause.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Another family was threatened with the same because they were carrying $6,000 in cash to buy a car. Police said the children were possibly decoys.

    Threatening parents with child services was just one of the tactics Tenaha police used to try to make sure no one fought their absurd abuse of civil asset forfeiture.

    Yet none of these people was ever charged with a crime. And that’s because there was no evidence of crimes. They were just carrying a few thousand dollars in cash.

    (By the way, carrying cash is completely LEGAL.)

    But it’s legal for police to do this in the Land of the Free.

    It’s called Civil Asset Forfeiture; and the rules allow police to take money, cars, houses, and other property without ever charging you with a crime.

    The government also has the legal authority to take children away from their parents; these laws are supposed to exist to safeguard children who are in abusive and dangerous environments.

    Yet there’s an appalling number of incidents where local officials weaponize this authority to harass, intimidate, and extort people out of money.

    Last week I told you about how moving abroad could save you tens of thousands of dollars in taxes through the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion.

    (Under the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion, you and your spouse can EACH earn more than $105,000 annually, tax free, plus even more tax benefits for housing and other expenses.)

    And in addition to the taxes, the lifestyle benefits of being abroad are also substantial. The cost of living is often much cheaper abroad. High quality medical care can be very inexpensive.

    You can become proficient in another language; and for younger children in particular, they can learn the local language to an almost native level.

    But even above all of those reasons, I still find one of the most compelling benefits of living overseas is that I feel more free.

    For many people this is a conundrum– they cannot possibly envisage a lesser developed country being more free than ‘Murica.

    And certainly there are tradeoffs. I don’t want to butter your buns with wild tales of exotic women feeding you grapes all day just because you move overseas. (Unless you go to the Philippines, in which case, I hope you like grapes.)

    But one thing that’s been consistent for me having lived in half a dozen countries (including places that are fairly underdeveloped) is that you and your family are generally just left alone to live your lives.

    And even in places that still struggle with corruption, locals would be absolutely shocked to hear about the government threatening to take someone’s children away.

    That stuff doesn’t even fly in banana republics.

    It might seem radical at first. But, if you find yourself agitated at the steady erosion of freedom in your home country and the never-ending howls of the Bolsheviks, consider taking a trip abroad… and see if you breathe free again.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 21:20

  • US "Stoking Confrontation" With "Dangerous" Resumption Of Joint Aerial Drills: N.Korea
    US "Stoking Confrontation" With "Dangerous" Resumption Of Joint Aerial Drills: N.Korea

    Just days after North Korea confirmed a provocative test a new “super-large” rocket launcher which sent two projectiles 200 miles where they crashed into the sea, Pyongyang has blasted US plans to resume combined aerial exercises with South Korea. 

    In a charged statement, Kwon Jong Gun, the DPRK’s permanent roving ambassador, said such a resumption would destroy any good will built up with the US administration after the recent series of talks between Trump and Kim Jong Un.

    He said, according to an official press release: “The U.S. reckless military frenzy is an extremely provocative and dangerous act of throwing a wet blanket over the spark of the DPRK-U.S. dialogue on the verge of extinction and stoking the atmosphere of confrontation on the Korean peninsula and the region.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Image via Reuters/SCMP

    This after “the U.S. Defense Department officially announced that it is pushing ahead with the procedure for resuming the combined aerial exercise with the south Korean army in December,” according to the statement. 

    The North Korean ambassador said resumption of military exercises aimed at the DPRK marks a violation of the June 2018 US-North Korea summit in Singapore, which he characterized as “reckless military frenzy” and an “extremely provocative and dangerous act”.

    “The U.S. intention to openly hold war exercise against the DPRK at a sensitive time when the whole world is concerned about the prospect of the DPRK-U.S. relations clearly proves again its nature as the chieftain harassing world peace and security and the hegemonic state regarding the recourse to military strength as a cure-for-all in settling issues,” the statement continued“Our patience is nearing limitations,” the statement concluded.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The ambassador’s angry condemnation comes after earlier in the day military magazine Stars and Stripes confirmed the joint drills would move forward as planned, citing US military officials.

    According to the report:

    The United States and South Korea will hold a combined air exercise next month to replace the former annual drills known as Vigilant Ace, officials said.

    The allies canceled Vigilant Ace and several other joint drills last year to facilitate nuclear talks with North Korea, which considers them a rehearsal for an invasion.

    “There are no plans to skip upcoming combined exercises,” Army Lt. Col. Dave Eastburn, a Pentagon spokesman, said Tuesday in Washington, giving it a generic name. “We are proceeding with the Combined Flying Training Event as planned.”

    Crucially, working talks between Kim and Trump are rumored to continue as early as December. If so, we could be witnessing early jockeying for leverage ahead of such a potential summit. 


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 21:00

    Tags

  • Crashing The Financial System For Fun And Profit
    Crashing The Financial System For Fun And Profit

    Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

    It would be wise to remember we are in uncharted waters and this market could reverse on a dime. The stories flowing out of companies such as WeWork that are burning through cash screams danger ahead! This means we should not discount the idea that those in charge might reach a tipping point where they crash the financial system for fun and profit. While this may seem outlandish the possibility is real. This doesn’t mean that every rich guy and gal would sign on to this plan, just enough to push things over the edge. When things have gone too far in one direction history shows that a correction always takes place. It could be argued we have reached that point and true price discovery has been lost.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    A huge amount of money can be made during a market crash for those properly positioned. As long as the Fed and the big banks survive those who control these institutions couldn’t care less about how the 99.5% at the bottom fair. In fact, the Dodd-Frank Act which is over 2,300 pages allows this under Title II what is viewed by many as a “bank bail-in”. This is done by imposing the losses of insolvent financial companies on their common and preferred stockholders, debt holders, and other unsecured creditors including depositors.

    The whole event of a “bank bail-in” can be viewed as another way to disguise a massive default and it can happen here in AmericaAn example of just how delusional we have become as to the fragility of our financial system is that many people have taken comfort in the efforts to control the banking sector through the Dodd-Frank act following the 2008 crisis. This legislation is over 2,300 pages and still growing. Under Title II it allows the government to impose the losses of insolvent financial companies on their common and preferred stockholders, debt holders, and other unsecured creditors including depositors.

    Crashing the financial system would result in wiping out the pension funds, the hedge funds, the mutual funds, and more. Of course, if such a scenario were to unfold there would be no smoking gun it would be something that “just happened.” Sure there would be a great deal of finger-pointing and experts would opine as to what went wrong and how to fix the system but things would go on. Rest assured that with so much blood in the streets little effort would be made to determine who instigated the trauma. Most likely as in the 2008 crisis, nobody would be held accountable or go to jail.

    While this may seem unfathomable to many people it could happen. It also would be extremely profitable to those on the right side of a collapse. If you find this hard to stomach then imagine just how fast this could occur. Most investors think that even if things go downhill fast that they will be smart enough to get out of the markets. But what if it hits like the flash crash on steroids? Imagine a scenario where the market falls like a flash crash on steroids and investors are trapped.

    Investors have been assured that can’t happen because circuit breakers have been put in place to arrest panic style moves but, if trade is halted, and the market simply does not reopen for days or even weeks suddenly it is a new game. As remote as this might seem, if it were to happen it would have far-reaching ramifications. While you are imagining this scenario realize that America’s stock market is the gold standard and consider how less stable global markets would react in countries like China and Brazil.

    As for a catalyst, many exist and not all as sinister as what is being predicted by award-winning journalist Dr. Paul Craig Roberts.  The former Assistant Treasury Secretary in the Reagan Administration, who has a PhD in Economics, predicts the oligarchs of the New World Order (NWO) will do anything to boot President Trump out of office. This includes taking down and crashing the financial system as a last resort if all else fails. “They will wipe us out in order to get rid of Trump.”Dr. Roberts says forget about the Left/Right Democrat and Republican paradigm. Dr. Roberts explains, “This isn’t a Democrat vs. Republican thing…”

    Adding to questions about where we are heading is just how little most people know about the economy. Years ago, Fed watchers were surprised when Ben Bernanke’s former special advisor, Andrew Levin, said that “a lot of people would be stunned to know” the extent to which the Federal Reserve is privately owned, stating next that the Fed “should be a fully public institution.” A recent post from the BOE’s Banker Underground blog looked at the question of who really owns central banks. It found that around the world, central banks have a number of different ownership structures this means who they must be accountable to varies a great deal.

    Central banks, like the Bank of England, are wholly owned by the public sector. Shareholders of central banks, like the Banca d’Italia are wholly private sector entities. Other central banks, like that of Japan, are a mix of the two. The problem is that more than half of the banks the world’s central banks oversee are at risk of collapse in the next global downturn if they don’t start preparing for tough times ahead. McKinsey & Company warned in a 55-page report titled The last pit stop? Time for bold late-cycle moves, that 35% of banks globally will have to merge or sell to larger firms if they want to survive the next crisis. This adds to the notion the masses will be thrown under the bus when push comes to shove.

    Returning to the crux of this article, there is a great deal of money to be made during a market collapse. Those with money can swoop in and pick up bargains when the market is not liquid and fear runs wild. This market is ripe for such a scenario and there is a great deal of money waiting in the wings for such an event. With nothing notable to invest in as of late, it is reported that Berkshire has surpassed Apple and Google as the world’s biggest corporate cash holder. In Q3 Berkshire reported a record cash pile of $128 billion.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Many economy watchers concede the decade long “great manipulation” we have witnessed will not work indefinitely, and eventually markets will come crashing down around those in charge. With this in mind, it is easy to understand the allure of being one of those that will reap a fortune when it unravels. Years ago President Eisenhower warned the American people about the Industrial Military Complex but nobody warned us an even more evil alliance that of the “Financial-Political Complex.” It would be wise to remember those at the top control the game and make the rules. In doing so, generous they are not.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 20:40

  • US Healthcare Costs Are Exploding: Here's Why
    US Healthcare Costs Are Exploding: Here's Why

    We have previously written extensively on America’s soaring healthcare and health insurance costs (here, here, here and here), so instead of boring readers with even more words, here are some charts courtesy of Deutsche Bank that make a most persuasive case. Now if only the Fed, which is still convinced inflation is well below 2% and should keep easing, were to notice these.

    We start with a very painful for many observation: after a period of modest quiet, healthcare inflation is soaring, with insurance inflation now the highest since before the financial crisis.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    That’s just the beginning though: it’s only downhill from here for healthcare inflation. Or, rather, uphill.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    It’s not just healthcare of course: as the next chart shows, there is plenty of inflation in the price of healthcare, education, and housing:

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    After the number of Americans without health insurance tumbled into Obama’s second term, this number has started to rise again, perhaps as a result of the surge in insurance costs.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Those who do have insurance are probably not all that happy: in the past decade, total annual healthcare premiums increased more than 50%!

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The average annual premium for US families has risen to $20k in 2019.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Yet while a near record number of Americans have health insurance, ironically out-of-pocket healthcare spending has soared in recent years:

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    As a result, the total annual healthcare spending per family is now a record $23,000.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    What is the reason for this divergence: one words – deductible. As the chart below shows, the annual deductible across all health insurance plans has tripled since 2006.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Even more ironically, the US should have the world’s best healthcare system, if only based on how much money is spent on it as a share of GDP:

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    As a reminder, Medicare and Medicaid spending make up more than 25% of total federal outlays.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    One reason behind America’s woeful healthcare situation: 27% of the population have pre-existing conditions.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    So where do Americans spend the most money? Why at hospitals of course, followed by clinics, dental, home healthcare, and prescription drugs.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Of course, if it wasn’t for insurance, prescription drugs would be in first place by a huge margin. Here’s why:

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Then again, it’s not like hospital costs will drop any time soon:

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    One final point: just in case there is any confusion at the Fed, this is how much faster than CPI and wage inflation healthcare premiums have risen in the past two decades:

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    And one bonus chart: here is a map showing the share of US population spending more than 10% of their income on premium contributions.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Source: Deutsche Bank

     


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 20:20

  • Human Batteries? Debunking Matrix 'Science'
    Human Batteries? Debunking Matrix 'Science'

    Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

    It’s wonderfully exciting to think about the potential for harvesting humans for their energy–an idea made famous by the movie The Matrix. But leave it to science to ruin a perfectly good movie. As it turns out, humans are one of the most inefficient power sources available, and our vital energy isn’t going to be powering the world–or the evil machines–any time soon.  

    But we understand the fascination with this human battery concept.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The search for cleaner energy, limitless energy, and cheaper energy has reached a fever pitch, and the great minds of science are exploring all avenues of how to generate this premium energy. In their quest to discover new ways of supplying energy to the world, we stumble on some pretty far out ideas–and Hollywood has given us some of the more colorful ideas. 

    Some of these theoretical ideas have even inspired real-life developments, which has given rise to the sensible question, is this even possible?

    In the Matrix, machines have successfully overthrown their masters, and have harnessed the energy of humans to power their world. Rows and rows of humans are seen in tanks, connected to hoses to siphon off whatever energy a human body could create. The humans, unaware of their situation, are in a dream state, living their life solely through their imagination. 

    Morpheus, Laurence Fishburne’s character in the movie, explains it thusly:

    “The human body generates more bio electricity than a 120-volt battery and over 25000 BTUs of body heat. Combined with a form of fusion the machines had found all the energy they would ever need.”

    And that sounds great! The part about the battery output, not the part about the evil robots using you as a power source. The preoccupation with battery advancements is understandable. 

    Science continues to work on coming up with a better battery. All types of batteries today–including both ones that we use today and ones that are in development–have at least one major drawback, creating a kind of Goldilocks scenario. The material is expensive to mine. The material is expensive to recycle. The battery doesn’t work in the cold. The battery doesn’t last very long in between charges. The battery can spontaneously explode. The battery takes too long to charge. The battery is too big. The list is seemingly endless–unfortunately so for the transportation sector, which has been desperately waiting for a mass adoption of electric cars, busses, vans, semis, and planes. 

    It’s no wonder why the possibility of the Matrix proposition holds the interest of many, robot masters aside.

    But no worries. As it turns out, those evil machines can’t take over the world using yourself against you. And here’s why some have called this particular battery idea utter nonsense.

    As it turns out, humans suck at being batteries, even while we are in a evil-machine-induced coma and have nothing else to do except for imagining our way through life. Go ahead and add that to your list of things you suck at. 

    I guess we don’t put out nearly as much power as Morpheus suggested. Lies, all lies! 

    Morpheus said the net energy output of a human is 315 W of power. At 7.7 billion people on the planet, that would be a total energy output of 2,425,500,000,000 W. Or 2.4255 terawatts. But that’s just not true. Humans are lousy energy converters, and estimates are that humans can convert fuel (food) into energy at a 25% efficiency rate. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    That ranks us somewhere above the fluorescent lamp and under the engine of a car. Frankly, we expected better.

    Real science–as opposed to Hollywood science–suggests that all the people on the planet–combined–would generate far less, no more than 0.6 terawatts on a best-case scenario. We’re not sure whether we should be relieved that this means the motive for using us as batteries is unremarkable, or whether we should be concerned that someone has already investigated how much power humans could generate.

    The problem with the conversion and why we’re not so good at it is because human bodies need energy too. We need food. Energy in, energy out. But while we consume a significant amount of food even in our resting state, only 25% of this is converted into energy, in the form of heat. And that’s assuming these machines have found a way to capture that heat and use it as energy. 

    Even so, work on the human battery idea is moving forward, in an attempt to get around the battery bottleneck that is holding up electronic advancements.  We’d like to think these experiments will not involve evil machine overlords. 

    The Matrix 4 has just been announced, and science aside, we are expecting even more crazy energy ideas this go around. 


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 20:00

  • Profits, Trading Plunge At World's 3rd Largest Exchange As Hong Kong Chaos Spreads
    Profits, Trading Plunge At World's 3rd Largest Exchange As Hong Kong Chaos Spreads

    The social-economic turmoil in Hong Kong is certainly unprecedented. 

    Retail sales have crashed, housing prices are rolling over, monetary policy via the Hong Kong Monetary Authority is failing to stabilize the economy, and now, new evidence suggests the financial industry is starting to crack.

    Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd., the world’s third-largest stock exchange (in terms of average daily trading volume), recorded its worst profit in three years as investors fled regional stocks.

    Net income of the exchange plunged 10% to $282 million in Q3 YoY, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. This was one of the most significant drops since the global slowdown in 2016.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Last week, Hong Kong crashed into a technical recession, the first time since the 2008/09 financial crisis. Hong Kong’s economy plunged 3.2% in Q3, government data showed last week, exceeding economists’ lowest estimates and confirming a technical recession has begun.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan warned after more than half a year of violent anti-government demonstrations, the end of October marked the start of the recession. 

    “After seeing negative growth in the second quarter, the situation continued in the third quarter, meaning our economy has entered technical recession,” Chan wrote in a blog post.

    “It seems it will be extremely difficult for us to reach full-year economic growth of 0 to 1%. I would not rule out the possibility that the full-year economic growth will be negative.”

    With two consecutive quarters of negative growth and no end to the protests in sight, Bloomberg has noted in a series of graphs that a full-year economic contraction is likely for 2020.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Since the protests became violent in early summer, Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing shares have slipped 12%.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    As the crisis deepens in Hong Kong, it’s likely the Hang Seng is setting up for another leg lower. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 19:40

  • Almost 80,000 California Retirees Receive Over $100,000 In Pension Pay
    Almost 80,000 California Retirees Receive Over $100,000 In Pension Pay

    Via Transparent California blog,

    The number of California retirees collecting a public pension of $100,000 or more hit an all-time high of 79,235 last year, up 85 percent since 2013.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    That’s according to an analysis of 2018 pension payout data posted on Transparent California — the state’s largest public pay and pension database.

    Those receiving pension payouts of at least $100,000 accounted for nearly 20 percent of the $51.7 billion total payments made last year, which is also an all-time high, according to the data.

    “The only reason public pensions are an issue of public concern is because of the costs they impose on taxpayers,” explained Transparent California Executive Director Robert Fellner.

    “The data show that one out of every five dollars paid out by California’s public pension funds last year went to someone who is drawing an annual pension of at least $100,000,” Fellner said.

    Data from the US Census Bureau reveals a similar explosion in taxpayer costs, which hit an all-time high of $39.3 billion last year, more than double the amount spent in 2013.

    “Guaranteed, lifetime annual pensions of over $100,000 are quite expensive, as the soaring cost to taxpayers in recent years makes quite clear,” Fellner concluded.

    The number of retirees receiving annualized pensions of at least $100,000 at the Kern County pension fund increased 21 percent from 2017 to 2018, the biggest year-over-year increase of any pension fund statewide, as shown in the below table:

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Nearly half of all California cities face a “high risk” of fiscal distress due to rising pension costs, according to a recent analysis from the California State Auditor.

    “Rising pension costs will force working class Californians to pay higher taxes, while receiving fewer public services,” Fellner explained.

    To see a complete list of the more than 1.2 million pension checks issued last year, please click here. To view the data by individual pension fund, please click here.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 19:20

  • Nuclear Superpowers Unleashed: New START & Open Skies Pacts With Russia Fast Collapsing
    Nuclear Superpowers Unleashed: New START & Open Skies Pacts With Russia Fast Collapsing

    It’s not just the ‘Open Skies’ treaty with Russia that’s on the chopping block, but more significantly the two Cold War rivals’ last major arms control treaty, New START, which is the landmark nuclear arms reduction treaty signed by the two superpowers in 1991 and took effect in 1994. It is set to expire in February 2021.

    That would be a mere weeks after the next presidential inauguration. As NPR alarmingly put it this week: “The world’s two nuclear superpowers have never unleashed their atomic arsenals against one another, but two longstanding agreements that have helped keep the United States and Russia from doing so now appear to be on the verge of collapse.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    File image: Tu-95 bombers over the Kremlin, via AFP/Getty.

    By all appearances President Trump is ready to let it die:

    President Trump and his aides have signaled repeatedly that he intends to let it expire unless it can be broadened to include other nations with strategic weapons, chiefly China.

    But the Chinese are not interested – their arsenal is far smaller and they have shown no interest in negotiating a nuclear weapons deal. Mr. Trump’s insistence on including other nations, including China, in a renegotiation has largely been seen as a move to kill the treaty, which was negotiated by President Obama.

    President Vladimir V. Putin’s government has said that Russia hopes to renew or revise the treaty – but that the negotiations to revise it would have to begin immediately.

    Moscow has recently signaled its position that it’s already too late to work out a new accord, or extension of New START, also given Russia says it’s unsure who on the Washington side will be tapped to continue any potential negotiations. 

    “The ball is now in the Americans’ court,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Vladimir Leontyev told reporters late last week. “We are looking forward to their decision and to them saying who will represent them and when we can resume our discussions on strategic stability issues.”

    And as we reported early last month, the White House is expected to also ditch ‘Open Skies’ agreement, which Trump has signaled he considers obsolete. This also after the US pullout of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF).

    The ‘Open Skies’ treaty which the US signed in 1992 and went into effect in 2002 is the agreement which allows Russian surveillance planes to occasionally fly over the heart of North America. The post Cold War treaty allows its 34 member states to conduct short-notice, unarmed observation flights to monitor other countries’ military operations in mutual verification of arms-control agreements. 

    Pressure is building for Trump to pull the plug, as NPR notes further: “Last week two of the Open Skies pact’s harshest congressional critics, Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Tom Cotton, R-Ark., introduced a Senate resolution demanding the U.S. ditch the treaty.”

    These treaties are designed to prevent the kind of Cold War arms race which nearly took the world to the brink of nuclear annihilation, thus many analysts fear once removed there’s no putting the lid of a major arms race back on. 

    As The American Conservative’s Daniel Larison recently observed, “Refusing to renew the treaty is the same as killing it, and the US will be to blame for the collapse of the last limits on the biggest nuclear arsenals on earth.”


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 19:00

    Tags

  • Brazil's Overhyped Oil Auction Ends In "Total Disaster"
    Brazil's Overhyped Oil Auction Ends In "Total Disaster"

    Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

    What would have been Brazil’s biggest oil auction ever has ended in what Bloomberg called a “total disaster”, as oil majors steered clear of the pricey oil areas up for grabs. Brazil was hoping to rake in more than $25 billion from the auction to offset a portion of its budget deficit and change its nationalistic oil industry ways by offering foreign players at seat at the table.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Another $25 billion was set to go to Petrobras in exchange for work Petrobras had already done in exploring the areas up for grabs.

    But Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras), and a consortium that involved Petrobras, were the only winning bidders, according to the Associated Press, picking up two of the four blocks. The other two blocks, however, went unsold in what was a major disappointment for Brazil—and Petrobras.

    A Petrobras (90%) consortium that involved CNOOC and CNODC managed to take home the mega Buzios field, as expected, after Petrobras admitted it would bid to win for Buzios. Petrobras also secured the rights to the Itapu block, for which it was the only bidder.

    But Petrobras will be stretched mighty thin in developing Buzios, as attractive as that block may be. And with just a tiny amount of the $25 billion it was expecting in fees from other winning bidders in the auction, it will be stretched even thinner.

    Still, Brazil took in $17 billion in licensing fees from the two blocks that were awarded, and Brazil is calling it a success. Energy Minister Bento Albuquerque said it would offer the unsold blocks again next year.

    “We’ll need to evaluate why oil majors didn’t participate,” Albuquerque told reporters.

    But everyone else – including oil titan ExxonMobil, seems to know exactly why the oil majors didn’t participate: it was just too expensive.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 18:40

  • Arizona County Declares Itself A "Second Amendment Sanctuary"
    Arizona County Declares Itself A "Second Amendment Sanctuary"

    An Arizona county which borders Nevada, California and Utah has declared itself a ‘Second Amendment Sanctuary County’ in a largely symbolic move.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Photo via The Organic Prepper

    “The Board affirms its support of the Second Amendment to the U. S. Constitution, and declares Mohave County a Second Amendment Sanctuary County,” reads a resolution approved unanimously on November 4 by the Mohave County Board of Supervisors.

    “We have the support of the sheriff, and if it ever gets to the point where the courts would have to get involved because of gun laws implemented by the feds or the state, we would step up and fight them,” said Board of Supervisors Chairwoman Hildy Angius.

    Those opposed to the new declaration say it’s illegal.

    Mohave County’s new resolution doesn’t appear to elicit any actual changes in law. If it did, that could be illegal, according to Gerry Hills, the founder of Arizonans for Gun Safety, who pointed out that state preemption law blocks cities or counties from making gun policies that are different from state law.

    Either they’re going to enforce gun laws, or they’re not going to enforce gun laws,” Hills said. “And if it’s their policy not to enforce gun laws, then that’s a violation of the preemption law. Municipalities don’t get to pick and choose which laws they want to follow.”

    That law, ARS 13-3108, bans local firearms laws that are “inconsistent with or more restrictive than state law.” –Phoenix New Times

    “Although this is symbolic in nature, this reaffirms the county’s commitment, as well as mine, to support and defend the U.S. and Arizona constitutions,” said State Senator Sonny Borrelli.

    According to the Phoenix New Times, the move follows a recent trend across the southern and western United States for rural municipalities to reaffirm their support for gun rights by calling themselves “sanctuaries.”

    Last week, Parker County, Texas similarly declared its 2A Sanctuary status – while on October 9, Hood County, Texas did the same according to Breitbart.

    In early July, the California town of Needles – which borders Mohave County, also declared itself a “2nd Amendment Sanctuary City,” which was more or less a symbolic affirmation of support for gun owners. The move had no immediate impact on the city’s 5,000 or so residents, and instead resulted in the authorization of a request to California legislators to allow licensed gun owners from other states to carry their firearms in town.

    Meanwhile, on the other side of Arizona, voters in the liberal city of Tucson overwhelmingly voted to reject a plan to become a sanctuary city.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 18:20

    Tags

  • Why Illinois' Government Has Become Predatory And Unjust
    Why Illinois' Government Has Become Predatory And Unjust

    Authored by Richard Porter, op-ed via RealClearPolitics.com,

    While taxes imposed by municipalities and states are often debated on economic, efficiency or equitable grounds, the justice of taxation is rarely a subject for discussion. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    But we need to have that debate in Illinois, where our government has become predatory, perverse and unjust. 

    We believe government may justly compel a range of things, including taxation. The premise behind government of, by and for the people is that everyone is created equal and free, and that therefore just government does not rule, it serves; just government does not impoverish, it enriches. 

    So, taxation is just, even though compulsory, when imposed by an elected government pursuing common welfare.  For example, we generally agree that taxes imposed for our common defense, to alleviate poverty or to enhance opportunities in the community are just because they create a better, stronger community for us all.

    When is government unjust?  When a strong few — such as a king and his knights — tax to enrich themselves, or when a government does the opposite of what it should do, such as taking something from the community, piling up what has been taken and burning it.

    Predatory governments serve themselves, not the community as a whole, and perverse governments impoverish the community instead of enriching it. 

    Which brings us to Illinois.

    Illinois is the least tax-friendly state in the nation, according to both Kiplinger’s and WalletHub, and so Illinois’ population shrinks while population in neighboring states grows.  As people leave or decide not to come, property values fall; WirePoints estimates that Chicagoland homeowners lost more than $250 billion in recent years. This massive loss in property values not only dwarfs the revenue Illinois and its municipalities collect each year, it’s greater than some measures of our unfunded pension debt. However, no one benefits from this property loss — it’s as if the government took a portion of each resident’s wealth, piled it up and burned it.  

    Residents of Illinois do not receive better government services for their higher taxes; they receive less and less because an extraordinary growing share of all government revenues are devoted to paying past promises to Illinois’ valuable government workers.

    Government must offer competitive compensation to attract people who will provide excellent services to its communities.  Taking care of government employees is necessary for any government to function. However, generations of politicians didn’t actually put up the money to pay for their generous promises. As a result, funding those pension promises is becoming a core purpose of Illinois’ government and the obsession of its leadership, making our government both predatory and perverse.

    As Illinois keeps increasing taxes on middle-income Anne (who has no pension) to pay ever greater pension benefits to government worker Jay, not only is Anne paying more for the same or less service, but the value of Anne’s house and nest egg for her own retirement falls too.  When government knowingly causes Anne, with no pension, to lose money for her retirement to pay Jay’s pension, government is serving Jay, not Anne.

    Our government’s focus on funding Jay’s increasing pension is becoming futile as tax hikes raising money for him hurt Jay too — because a shrinking tax base leaves less to fund his increasing lifetime pay.

    Nor is increasing taxes on the rich a practical alternative: Illinois’ liabilities are too vast and the rich are too few — and they can leave too, which means more taxes for Anne and more uncertainty for Jay. Scaring rich or ambitious people away is unfair to everyone.

    This is Illinois today: a place where government causes everyone to lose — and that’s perverse.  The state has entered a self-reinforcing spiral of failure, with shrinking wealth, a shrinking population and shrinking pension funds too, despite the ever higher taxes to save them.

    Illinois leaders need to face and fix the structural problem making our government unjust; government needs to restructure in order to refocus on serving and building communities. The only way out of this death spiral is lower taxes, which means we must reduce liabilities driving taxes higher — which means pensions must be reset to be fair to workers and sustainable for taxpayers.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 18:00

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 6th November 2019

  • Is The Global Dollar In Jeopardy?
    Is The Global Dollar In Jeopardy?

    Authored by Simon Johnson via Project Syndicate,

    Since the end of World War II, the United States dollar has been at the heart of international finance and trade. Over the decades, and despite the many ups and downs of the global economy, the dollar retained its role as the world’s favorite reserve asset. When times are tough or uncertainty reigns, investors flock to dollar-denominated assets, particularly US Treasury debt – ironically, even when there is a financial crisis in the US. As a result, the Federal Reserve – which sets US dollar interest rates – has enormous sway over economic conditions around the world.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    For all the associated innovation evident since the launch of the decentralized blockchain-based currency Bitcoin in 2009, the arrival of modern cryptocurrencies has had essentially zero impact on the global taste for dollars. Promoters of these new forms of money still have their hopes, of course, that they can challenge the existing financial system, but the impact on global portfolios has proved minimal. The most powerful central banks (the Fed, the European Central Bank, and a few others) are still running the global money show.

    Suddenly, however, there is a new, potentially serious player in town: Facebook’s Libra initiative. Facebook and a currently shifting coalition of firms are planning to launch their own private form of money that would, in some sense, be secured by holdings of major currencies.

    Without question, Libra could become a widely used form of payment – partly because Facebook has over two billion monthly active users, but also because the existing financial system is full of inefficiencies. If private money could make it cheaper, easier, and safer to make payments, then consumers would be happy to use it. Few people care what is under the hood of the monetary engine; most just want crash-proof transactions.

    The unfortunate truth is that our current payment system is expensive to run, including for sending money overseas in the form of remittances sent by workers back to their home countries. If Libra could allow people to send money as easily (and as cheaply!) as they post updates to Facebook, the currency would get a lot of likes.

    We have repeatedly experienced how quickly a disruptive new digital technology can transform the economic landscape. Think of how fast taxis came under pressure from Uber and Lyft.

    Bitcoin and its fellow crypto-travelers were designed to supersede financial intermediaries, such as banks. And, in theory, it would be possible to organize much of finance without the kind of banks and other intermediaries that currently exist. But as a matter of inconvenient reality, the crypto-market infrastructure that has developed can hardly be described as consumer-friendly. It’s too easy to lose your money or to have it stolen in myriad ways.

    In contrast, Facebook represents a digital technology company that knows how to keep customers happy. Sure, people increasingly complain about its privacy policies or attitudes toward political speech, but they continue to use the service. There is a potentially potent combination lurking here: the rapid scale-up of digital technology, a focus on cheaper safe financial transactions, and a lack of concern for legacy systems.

    Of course, Libra has some obvious disadvantages, including Facebook’s current reputation for not acting in the public interest. As a case study in public relations, it’s hard to imagine how the past year could have been worse for Libra’s prospects. And it is always possible for leading countries to block a private form of money by determining that it does not comply with regulations, such as anti-money laundering and Know Your Customer requirements.

    But if Libra does not make progress, that just opens more space for some other, more careful corporate-backed entity. Or perhaps the challenge will come from a currency issued by a sovereign state, any of which is entitled to design and circulate its own form of money.

    For some time now, there has been speculation that the Chinese renminbi could challenge or even one day displace the US dollar as the world’s main reserve currency. Perhaps, but it is not clear that we are moving closer to that day, because it is not clear that foreign investors will trust the Chinese political system with their rainy-day funds.

    Still, the Fed is right to be concerned, if not worried. Growing potential competitive pressure – the Libra effect – creates an incentive to make the existing system work better, including through the new FedNow system, which will speed up payments.

    In a recent speech, Fed Governor Lael Brainard argued that the Fed will innovate, to a moderate degree, and the dollar will be fine. She may be right. But for the first time in a long while, competition is coming to central banks. With a bit of luck, consumers may end up with a better deal.


    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 11/06/2019 – 00:05

  • US Navy Secretary Warns Of "Fragile" Supply Chain And "Great Power Competition"
    US Navy Secretary Warns Of "Fragile" Supply Chain And "Great Power Competition"

    The U.S. is attempting to not just decouple its economy from the rest of the world, which won’t happen until wartime, but now there’s new evidence that supply chains for military warships could soon be recognized after it was found Russia and China supply critical components.

    U.S. Secretary of the Navy Richard Spencer told the Financial Times (FT) in an exclusive interview that a top-level report found many contractors building warships used “high-tech and high-precision parts” from foreign countries, some of those countries were Russia and China.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Spencer said the U.S. is in a “great power competition” with both countries, and it’s vital that critical components made in those countries aren’t used in U.S. warships. This means some of those supply chains of how contractors procure crucial components need to be reworked into allied countries and or produced domestically.

    Spencer then warned about how Beijing is “weaponizing capital” across 152 countries in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas, through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). He accused China of forcing countries into a ‘debt trap’ to gain access and control over natural resources.

    “You go to a country in need, you fill that need which they are grateful for, but at some point do they turn around and go: ‘You know what, everybody out, we’re going to use this now . . . the keys are mine’?” Spencer said. “There’s nothing that prevents that.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    China recently began BRI projects in Italy, near the site of Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri, a top finalist to develop the Navy’s new frigate. Spencer said he had a long talk with Fincantieri management about the need to protect internal networks from Chinese hackers.

    Spencer said there has been a tremendous effort to restore domestic supply chains and invest in factories to build out manufacturing capabilities.

    But he added one of the most challenging parts of restoring the U.S. industrial base is convincing investment banks to fund weapon manufacturing facilities.

    Spencer launched a “trusted capital” program where private equity funds can obtain more access to funding military projects.

    As we heard on Monday, the U.S. and its Asian allies have launched a global infrastructure program, called the Blue Dot Network, that will directly compete with BRI.

    The U.S.’ attempt to decouple its economy from the world, reorganize military supply chains away from Russia and China, and launch an alternative BRI program is a clear indication that the “great power competition” is only in the beginning innings.

     


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 23:45

  • 'Omniviolence' Is Coming And The World Isn't Ready
    'Omniviolence' Is Coming And The World Isn't Ready

    Authored by Phil Torres via Nautil.us,

    In The Future of Violence, Benjamin Wittes and Gabriella Blum discuss a disturbing hypothetical scenario. A lone actor in Nigeria, “home to a great deal of spamming and online fraud activity,” tricks women and teenage girls into downloading malware that enables him to monitor and record their activity, for the purposes of blackmail. The real story involved a California man who the FBI eventually caught and sent to prison for six years, but if he had been elsewhere in the world he might have gotten away with it. Many countries, as Wittes and Blum note, “have neither the will nor the means to monitor cybercrime, prosecute offenders, or extradite suspects to the United States.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Technology is, in other words, enabling criminals to target anyone anywhere and, due to democratization, increasingly at scale.

    Emerging bio-, nano-, and cyber-technologies are becoming more and more accessible. The political scientist Daniel Deudney has a word for what can result: “omniviolence.” The ratio of killers to killed, or “K/K ratio,” is falling.

    For example, computer scientist Stuart Russell has vividly described how a small group of malicious agents might engage in omniviolence:

    “A very, very small quadcopter, one inch in diameter can carry a one-or two-gram shaped charge,” he says.

    “You can order them from a drone manufacturer in China. You can program the code to say: ‘Here are thousands of photographs of the kinds of things I want to target.’ A one-gram shaped charge can punch a hole in nine millimeters of steel, so presumably you can also punch a hole in someone’s head. You can fit about three million of those in a semi-tractor-trailer. You can drive up I-95 with three trucks and have 10 million weapons attacking New York City. They don’t have to be very effective, only 5 or 10% of them have to find the target.”

    Manufacturers will be producing millions of these drones, available for purchase just as with guns now, Russell points out, “except millions of guns don’t matter unless you have a million soldiers. You need only three guys to write the program and launch.”

    In this scenario, the K/K ratio could be perhaps 3/1,000,000, assuming a 10-percent accuracy and only a single one-gram shaped charge per drone.

    That’s completely—and horrifyingly—unprecedented. The terrorist or psychopath of the future, however, will have not just the Internet or drones—called “slaughterbots” in this video from the Future of Life Institute—but also synthetic biology, nanotechnology, and advanced AI systems at their disposal. These tools make wreaking havoc across international borders trivial, which raises the question: Will emerging technologies make the state system obsolete? It’s hard to see why not.

    What justifies the existence of the state, English philosopher Thomas Hobbes argued, is a “social contract.”

    People give up certain freedoms in exchange for state-provided security, whereby the state acts as a neutral “referee” that can intervene when people get into disputes, punish people who steal and murder, and enforce contracts signed by parties with competing interests. 

    The trouble is that if anyone anywhere can attack anyone anywhere else, then states will become – and are becoming – unable to satisfy their primary duty as referee. It’s a trend toward anarchy, “the war of all against all,” as Hobbes put it – in other words a condition of everyone living in constant fear of being harmed by their neighbors.

    Indeed, in a recent paper, “The Vulnerable World Hypothesis,” published in Global Policy, the Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom argues that the only way to defend against a global catastrophe is to employ a universal and invasive surveillance system, what he calls a “High-tech Panopticon.” Sound dystopian? It sure does to me.

    “Creating and operating the High-tech Panopticon would require substantial investment,” Bostrom writes, “but thanks to the falling price of cameras, data transmission, storage, and computing, and the rapid advances in AI-enabled content analysis, it may soon become both technologically feasible and affordable.”

    Bostrom is well-aware of the downsides—corrupt actors in a state could exploit this surveillance for totalitarian ends, or hackers could blackmail unsuspecting victims. Yet the fact is that it may still be a better option than suffering one global catastrophe after another. 

    How can societies counterattack omniviolence? One strategy could be a superintelligent machine—essentially, an extremely powerful algorithm—that’s specifically designed to govern fairly. We could then put the algorithm in political charge and, insofar as it governs as something like a “Philosopher King,” not worry constantly about the data collected being misused or abused. Of course, this is a fantastical proposal. Even the real-world use of AI in the justice system is fraught with problems. But at this point, do we have a better idea for preventing the collapse of the state system under the weight of widespread technological empowerment?

    Perhaps a completely new idea will emerge that can preserve the current system—if we even want it preserved. Or perhaps emerging technologies won’t empower people as much as I and others anticipate. It could be that offensive technologies will actually lag behind defensive technologies, making it very difficult to execute a successful attack. It could also be that before omniviolence and democratization undercut the state, civilization collapses because of climate change-linked stressors like lethal heatwaves, megadroughts, coastal flooding, rising sea-levels, melting glaciers and polar ice caps, desertification, food supply disruptions, disease outbreaks, biodiversity loss, species extinctions, and mass migrations. If we ended up living as hunter-gatherers again, the main worry would be sticks and stones, not designer pathogens and artificial intelligence.

    Civilization is an experiment. We may not get the results we’re expecting. So humanity would do well to hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

    *  *  *

    Phil Torres is a scholar of global catastrophic risks, and author of several books. His essay, “Superintelligence and the Future of Governance: On Prioritizing the Control Problem at the End of History,” appears in the 2018 anthology, Artificial Intelligence Safety and Security


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 23:25

  • China Launches High-Res Satellite To Monitor Belt And Road Projects
    China Launches High-Res Satellite To Monitor Belt And Road Projects

    China on Sunday launched a new high-resolution remote sensing satellite, called the Gaofen-7, which will be used to monitor Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure projects, reported Xinhua.

    The Gaofen-7 was launched on top of a Long March-4B rocket on Sunday at the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Centre in northern China.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    China Central Television (CCTV), citing China National Space Administration (CNSA), said the optical surveying and mapping satellite would mostly be used for urban planning and statistical research, which will allow China to reduce its dependence on foreign satellites.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Housing, and Urban-Rural Development and the National Bureau of Statistics will be the three most active users of Gaofen-7.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    According to CNSA, the Gaofen series of satellites will support a surveillance network above Earth that will monitor the atmosphere, the ground, and oceans on a 24-hour basis. 

    The Gaofen project began in 2010. The first satellite was launched in 2013, and five more have been launched since (Gaofen satellite list via Xinhua): 

    • Gaofen-1, launched into space in April 2013, is a high-resolution observation satellite.
    • Gaofen-2, sent into space in August 2014, is accurate to 0.8 meters in full color and can collect multispectral images of objects greater than 3.2 meters in length.
    • Gaofen-4, launched in late 2015, is China’s first geosynchronous orbit high-definition optical imaging satellite.
    • Gaofen-3, launched in August 2016, is China’s first synthetic aperture radar imaging satellite.
    • Gaofen-5, launched in May 2018, has the highest spectral resolution of China’s remote sensing satellites.
    • Gaofen-6, launched in June 2018, has a similar function to that of Gaofen-1, but with better cameras, and its high-resolution images can cover a large area of the earth.

    The launch of Gaofen-1 coincides with the start date of BRI infrastructure development and investment projects. 

    In the last six years, China has expanded BRI projects in 152 countries across Asia, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas.

    It seems like China has just built a giant surveillance network of satellites that will monitor its global infrastructure projects. 


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 23:05

  • Trump's Impeachment Lures Democrats Into A Cold War Mentality
    Trump's Impeachment Lures Democrats Into A Cold War Mentality

    Authored by Aaron Maté via TheNation.com,

    The hawkish mindset that liberals have embraced threatens not just their own political fortunes but also global peace…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Last week’s vote by House Democrats to formally open an impeachment inquiry of President Donald Trump followed testimony that appeared to boost their case. Several US officials told Congress that the Trump administration sought to leverage US military aid to pressure Ukraine into opening politically tainted investigations. But liberals cheering on these developments should be mindful of their limitations—and their potential consequences. The available testimony does not strike me as being as damning for Trump as it is being portrayed. More importantly, even if that proves to be a faulty interpretation, the impeachment frenzy is enrolling liberals in a dangerous Cold War mentality that could threaten their own election chances in 2020.

    The Democrats’ theory of the case is plausible: At the same time as Trump’s chosen point man, EU Ambassador Gordon Sondland, pressured Ukraine to launch politically beneficial investigations, the president froze military aid as a tool of added leverage. But although the available testimony helps the impeachment case so far, we have not uncovered a smoking gun.

    Bill Taylor, the top US diplomat in Ukraine, says that Sondland told him that the military assistance was conditioned on a Ukrainian pledge to open investigations into Burisma, the company where Hunter Biden got his lucrative board seat, and alleged Ukrainian interference in the 2016 US election. Taylor also offered the first known testimony that this demand was made explicit to the Ukrainian side: According to Taylor, National Security Council aide Tim Morrison told him that Sondland directly communicated the quid pro quo to Andriy Yermak, an aide to Ukraine’s prime minister, Volodymyr Zelensky, at a meeting in Warsaw in September 1.

    Morrison corroborated Taylor’s testimony in his appearance last week. But we do not yet know whether Morrison witnessed the Sondland-Yermak conversation that he told Taylor about, or is relying on his recollection of what Sondland told him. This would allow Sondland to claim that Morrison misinterpreted him.

    What is certain is that Morrison left some wiggle room for Trump. His opening statement says that he and Taylor “had no reason to believe that the release of the security sector assistance might be conditioned on a public statement reopening the Burisma investigation” until he spoke to Sondland in Warsaw on September 1. “Even then,” he added, “I hoped that Ambassador Sondland’s strategy was exclusively his own,” and not Trump’s. According to CNN, Morrison testified that he tried to find out whether Sondland was relaying demands to the Ukrainian side on Trump’s behalf, or was “going rogue” as a “free radical.” The fact that Morrison suspected that Sondland’s “strategy was exclusively his own” means that his testimony did not directly implicate Trump. And it leaves Trump with the leeway to claim that Sondland, and perhaps Rudolph Giuliani, were indeed “going rogue.”

    It is perfectly reasonable to deduce from all of this that what Sondland relayed—if that is what he did—is exactly what Trump intended. Or indeed that Sondland was acting on Trump’s orders. But a case that can only be made from inference may have limited impact beyond those who have already made up their mind. Even if Trump knew exactly what Sondland was doing, Morrison’s testimony leaves him with the opportunity to throw Sondland under the bus. For his part, Sondland has said through his attorney that he rejects Taylor’s characterizations and does not recall the Warsaw conversation that Taylor (and now Morrison) claim to have heard about.

    For Taylor and Morrison’s testimony to prove dispositive—and to make a convincing case to the broader US public and the Senate Republicans who will decide Trump’s fate—corroborating testimony or evidence will have to emerge that Trump explicitly linked the military aid to investigations of Biden and that this demand was explicitly communicated to the Ukrainian side.

    That corroboration has yet to come from Ukraine. The Ukrainian government has said that it did not feel pressured. The New York Times reported that Ukrainian officials were made aware that US military aid was on hold by the first week in August, earlier than previously known. Yet communications between US and Ukrainian officials, the Times writes, “did not explicitly link the assistance freeze to the push by Mr. Trump and Mr. Giuliani for the investigations.” Nor was the aid freeze mentioned in Trump’s July 25 phone call with Zelensky.

    Yermak, reached via WhatsApp, did not respond to The Nation’s request for comment. His testimony will now be critical. As will follow-up testimony by Sondland. Perhaps Taylor and Morrison are accurately recounting Sondland’s words. Or perhaps Sondland will contradict them, or claim that they are conflating the investigations that Trump sought from Ukraine. As I’ve argued previously, demanding an investigation of documented (and openly acknowledgedUkrainian meddling in the 2016 elections is different from demanding one of a political rival.

    All of this positions us for a “he said, he said” impeachment scandal: The question of whether or not Trump is guilty of attempting to extort Ukraine could come down to which US bureaucrat, one chooses to believe.

    There is no reason to put faith in Sondland, who, in line with a longstanding tradition in US diplomacy, owes his plush diplomatic posting to a lucrative campaign donation to the winning presidential candidate. But before we embrace bureaucrats Taylor, Morrison, and another key witness, NSC official Alexander Vindman, as liberal heroes, it is worth taking stock of their impartiality and espoused views. Despite efforts to portray them as nonpartisan civil servants, the trio’s opening statements show them to be Cold Warriors devoted to continuing the US-Russia proxy war in Ukraine. As their testimony makes clear, that proxy war was imperiled by the very action that Trump took—briefly freezing the military aid that they all unabashedly support.

    In the case of Taylor, arming Ukraine was a condition of his willingness to serve in the job. When the Trump administration asked him to take the position in Kiev, Taylor recalls thinking, “I could be effective only if the US policy of strong support for Ukraine… were to continue.” Taylor even told Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, “If US policy toward Ukraine changed, he would not want me posted there and I could not stay.” No wonder then, that Taylor was upset when he began to hear rumblings that US military assistance to Ukraine was in jeopardy.

    Another star witness, Vindman, offers a similar outlook. Russia, he says, “has manifested an overtly aggressive foreign policy” necessitating “a deterrent.” To Vindman, that deterrent is “a strong and independent Ukraine,” which, he believes, is “critical to US national security interests because Ukraine is a frontline state and a bulwark against Russian aggression.” Morrison concurs, declaring that the administration’s policy “was to make sure the United States’ longstanding bipartisan commitment to strengthen Ukraine’s security remained unaltered.” In his view, “security sector assistance… is, therefore, essential to Ukraine.”

    Given their open dedication to ensuring the continuation of US military aid to Ukraine, it is reasonable to question if the trio’s interpretations of decisions and conversations about freezing military aid were colored by their own policy preferences. As The Washington Post put it, Vindman “told lawmakers that he was deeply troubled by what he interpreted as an attempt by the president to subvert U.S. foreign policy.” While undoubtedly many Democrats and Republicans share Vindman’s foreign policy views, it should be up to the president, not unelected bureaucrats, to decide US foreign policy.

    Even if their recollections are accurate, the consequence of embracing their collective worldview is worth considering. We do not need wade far into the intricacies of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to know that the position of Taylor, Vindman, and Morrison—and by extension, the entire liberal political and media establishment now cheering them—is well to the right of what the Democratic Party embodied just one administration ago.

    The very US military assistance that Trump froze is the same that President Barack Obama refused to provide during his last years in office. Obama feared, as The New York Times noted in 2015, that US weapons sent to Ukraine “would only escalate the bloodshed” in the Donbass and possibly “[end] up in the hands of thugs” (a likely reference to far-right Ukrainians, which proved prescient).

    In refusing to send that US military aid, Obama rejected intense pressure from the bipartisan DC foreign policy establishment. This includes Taylor himself, who, as he notes in his opening statement, unsuccessfully lobbied Obama to arm Ukraine. Taylor’s contemporaneous view is captured in a December 2014 letter he wrote to The Washington Post. Taylor denounced an opinion article, co-authored by a former Obama State Department official, that had opposed sending US arms to Ukraine and advocated an agreement between NATO and Russia to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. Backers of such steps, Taylor wrote, are “advocating that the West appease Russia.… Now is not the time for appeasement.”

    The very fact that Ukrainegate now has Democrats advocating a policy that Obama rejected should be enough to spark consideration of whether briefly not arming Ukraine is really the issue on which to pin removing a president from office. Moving toward impeachment over Ukraine policy also has potential electoral consequences: In 2016, voters rejected the neoconservative worldview that national security bureaucrats like Taylor, Vindman, and Morrison now espouse. Trump, after all, campaigned on improving ties with Russia and falsely presented himself as an opponent of the hawkish legacy that these star impeachment witnesses embody. On this note, the fact that John Bolton may become the Democrats’ next star witness might also hasten some reflection.

    The Cold War mindset that liberals have embraced threatens not just their own political fortunes but also global peace. Lost in the outrage over Trump’s potential—and ultimately unrealized—interruption of US military assistance to Ukraine is that Zelensky, the new Ukrainian president, openly campaigned on ending the war with Russia that this military assistance fuels. Zelensky is now under heavy pressure from Ukraine’s far right to abandon his pledge to make peace with Moscow. It does not bode well for Zelensky’s chances if the official opposition party of his US patron is effectively joining hands with his country’s own right-wing forces to continue the war.

    The dangers extend beyond Ukraine’s borders. The day after the House impeachment vote, Russia warned that there is not enough time left to renegotiate the New START Treaty, the last remaining accord limiting the US and Russian nuclear arsenals, before it expires in 2021. The treaty’s demise, The New York Times notes, would leave the world’s top two nuclear powers “free to expand their arsenals without limits” on “the most powerful weapons both sides can launch.” According to Vladimir Leontyev, Russia’s top arms control official, the Kremlin hopes to renew or revise the accord, but “the US administration is silent about it.” The Russians’ impression, Leontyev added, is that the Trump White House “is organically against any restrictions being imposed on the United States.”

    The Russian warning, the Times adds, is “the latest in a sobering list of signals that the great powers appear headed for a new arms race,” following Trump’s earlier withdrawal from another critical nuclear accord, the INF Treaty. It is also the latest in a long list of Trump administration policies that have escalated tensions with nuclear-armed Russia—including authorizing the US military assistance to Ukraine that Obama once opposed and that Democrats now seek to impeach him over. The fact that this list includes increasing the threat of nuclear conflict should be sobering to any liberal who continues to push the falsehood that Trump does Russia’s bidding—all the more so given that the propagation of this falsehood helps worsen, rather than reduce, those tensions.

    There is another list worth being mindful of: The many Trump administration scandals that Ukrainegate, like Russiagate before it, overshadows. The day after the House impeachment vote also coincided with the end of the comment period for a Trump administration plan to cut food programs for low-income Americans. According to government estimates, around 3 million recipients face the loss of food stamp benefits and close to 1 million children are at risk of losing automatic placement in federal school lunch programs.

    “Instead of declaring a war on poverty, this president has declared war on our most vulnerable citizens,” Representative Marcia Fudge (D-OH), the chairwoman of the House Agriculture Committee’s subcommittee on nutrition, said last month. That is undoubtedly correct, which makes it all the more puzzling that Democrats are preoccupied with an impeachment scandal that overshadows Trump’s attacks on the vulnerable and encourages him to escalate wars abroad. The same goes for their stance on Syria, which saw bipartisan opposition to an announced US withdrawal but next to no opposition to Trump’s sudden reversal with the explicit aim of stealing Syria’s oil.

    It is true that polls currently show that a majority of Americans support impeachment. It is also encouraging that Democratic presidential candidates are sidelining the impeachment drama to focus on serious policy issues on the campaign trail. At the same time, it appears that Democrats are not moving the needle in the battleground states that will decide the next election. A new New York Times/Siena College poll of the six closest swing states that went Republican in 2016 finds that Trump’s “advantage in the Electoral College relative to the nation as a whole remains intact or has even grown since 2016.”

    With 2020 on the horizon, the dangers of the Democratic establishment’s priorities cannot be emphasized enough.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 22:45

    Tags

  • China Exports African Swine Fever To Russia
    China Exports African Swine Fever To Russia

    A new report from Bloomberg details how African swine fever has likely been exported to Russia. This could be problematic for Russia, due in part that if the hog-killing disease spreads, it could start wiping out large swaths of herds, as it has already done in China. 

    In the last several months, about 60 cases of African swine fever have been reported to Russian authorities in the Amur Oblast region in Russia, a federal district that borders China in the Russian Far East.  

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Dirk Pfeiffer, a professor of veterinary medicine and life sciences at the City University of Hong Kong, told Bloomberg that a cross-border spread between the two countries is likely underway. “Wild boar are very likely to now also be infected in northern China,” Pfeiffer said.

    China has so far observed at least 50% of its herd this year wiped out from the fast-spreading disease. 

    Russia’s hog population in the Far East accounts for barely 2% of the country’s total hog population, which for now, could be contained.

    Rosselkhoznadzor, Russia’s biosecurity watchdog, has been on guard for a cross-border spread since summer, there have been several reports of Chinse citizens attempting to sneak infected meat across checkpoints into Russia.

    Andriy Rozstalnyy, an animal health officer with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, told Bloomberg that once the wild pig population is infected with African swine fever, then the spread of the disease is virtually uncontrollable. 

    In the last month, 275 pigs have died, and 2,473 have been killed in the Amur Oblast region, a move spurred by authorities to limit the outbreak.

    The cross-border spread of African swine fever, from China to Russia, is undoubtedly a significant cause for concern because now countries bordering China are being affected.

    Meanwhile, the US is sitting on record cold storage of pork bellies, something that China and Russia might be interested in… 

     


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 22:25

  • Ron Paul Pans Law Enforcement's New Mass Surveillance Plan: Sentence First, Crime Later?
    Ron Paul Pans Law Enforcement's New Mass Surveillance Plan: Sentence First, Crime Later?

    Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

    Attorney General William Barr recently sent a memo to law enforcement officials announcing a new federal initiative that would use techniques and tools developed in the war on terror, such as mass surveillance, to identify potential mass shooters. Those so identified would be targets of early interventions, which would include the disregarding of Second Amendment rights, as well as the imposing of mandatory counseling and involuntary commitment.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The program would likely match data collected via mass surveillance with algorithms designed to identify those with mental problems that would lead them to commit violent crimes. So, this program would deprive Americans of respect for their rights not because they committed, or even threaten to commit, a violent act but because their tweets, texts, or Facebook posts trigger a government algorithm.

    In order to enhance the government’s ability to conduct mass surveillance, Barr has been trying to force tech companies to allow the government to have a “backdoor” for accessing electronic information. This would allow the government to read all messages — even those that are encrypted, making it all but impossible to escape the government’s watchful eye.

    Many mental health professionals admit that diagnosing mental health issues involves a degree of subjectivity. So how can we trust a government-designed computer algorithm to accurately identify those with mental health problems? The answer is we can’t. Barr’s program will no doubt result in many individuals who are not a threat to anyone being deprived of respect for their rights. The program will also fail in detecting future mass shooters.

    Some mental health professionals argue that holding certain political beliefs is a sign of mental illness. Not surprisingly, federal agencies like the FBI agree that those expressing “anti-government extremism”— like supporting a constitutional republic instead of a welfare-warfare state — are potential threats.

    A recent internal FBI memo warned that a belief in “conspiracy theories” is a sign that someone could be a domestic terrorist. “Conspiracy theorist” is an all-purpose smear used against anyone who questions the government’s official narrative on an event or issue. Tying a belief in “conspiracy theory” to terrorism is an effort to not just stigmatize but actually criminalize dissenting thoughts on matters such as foreign policy, climate change, gun control, and the Federal Reserve.

    Some people support using political beliefs as a basis for labeling someone as “mentally disturbed” because they think it will mainly affect “right-wing extremists.” These people are ignoring the FBI’s history of harassing civil rights and antiwar activists, as well as the recent controversy over the FBI labeling “black identity extremists” as a threat.

    A government program to monitor electronic communications to identify potential mass shooters puts all Americans at risk of losing their liberty due to their political views or a few social media posts. All those who value liberty must oppose this dangerous program.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 22:05

  • Adobe Is Leading The Charge Against The Growing Epidemic Of Deepfake Videos
    Adobe Is Leading The Charge Against The Growing Epidemic Of Deepfake Videos

    The reality of deepfakes – or human image synthesis based on artificial intelligence to fake human participation in videos – is becoming so widespread and alarming that some of the biggest names in technology are teaming up with the New York Times to combat the problem.

    With advances in editing tools and AI, fake videos – used for purposes spanning political motives to good old revenge porn – are becoming more prominent and certainly more convincing. “It will soon be possible to make convincing videos showing anyone saying anything and photos of things that never happened,” according to Axios

    As a result, Twitter, Adobe and the New York Times are now proposing a collaborative effort to make clear who makes photos or videos, and what changes have been made to them along the way.

    Adobe is hoping to implement a system that allows publishers to append secure distribution data to content. The company could include the technology in its own tools, but it seeks for the technology to be an “open standard” that others would also use. The company showed a prototype of this tool earlier this week at its MAX conference in Los Angeles. 

    The companies are joined by a startup called Truepic, which also aims to create a “secure path” from the moment a photo or video is captured that can then be used to verify its authenticity. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Axios’ Kaveh Waddell said that the idea: “…solves a small but important layer of the online trust crisis. This would allow a reader to verify that something came from Axios — but if they are skeptical of Axios to begin with, that won’t matter. Verification that isn’t easily accessible threatens to bifurcate online information into ‘trusted content’ from those who have the resources to verify it and an easily dismissed information underclass.”

    Many companies are looking to prove authenticity via means of blockchain or decentralized lists of transactions that can’t be altered. An alternative idea involves a database held by a single company. Adobe has commented that it has not yet finalized what type of mechanism it will use. 

    Adobe general counsel Dana Rao said: “When it comes to the problem of deepfakes, we think the answer really is around ‘knowledge is power’ and transparency. We feel if we give people information about who and what to trust, we think they will have the ability to make good choices.”

    New York Times’ head of R&D Marc Lavallee commented: “Discerning trusted news on the internet is one of the biggest challenges news consumers face today. Combating misinformation will require the entire ecosystem — creators, publishers and platforms — to work together.”

    Finally, Twitter trust and safety head Del Harvey said“Serving and enhancing global public conversation is our core mission at Twitter. Everyone has a role to play in information quality and media literacy.”

    Adobe will be hosting a summit at its headquarters next month to continue the discussion. “We do look at this as a shared responsibility,” Rao concluded.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 21:45

  • Chinese State-Sponsored Hackers Intercept Text Messages Worldwide: Cyber Report
    Chinese State-Sponsored Hackers Intercept Text Messages Worldwide: Cyber Report

    Authored by Nicole Hao via The Epoch Times,

    U.S.-based cybersecurity firm FireEye revealed that a state-backed Chinese hacker group APT41 has compromised several major telecom firms and retrieved call records from the carriers’ customers whom they deemed as targets, intercepting text messages as well as call records worldwide.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The report did not name the telecom companies. The hackers searched call and text records for specific keywords, including the names of “high-value” targets such as the names of politicians, intelligence organizations, and political movements “at odds with the Chinese government,” according to the report.

    This is not the first time that Chinese state-sponsored hackers were reported to have intercepted international cell phone text messages. U.S.-based cybersecurity firm Cybereason released a report on Jun. 25, discussing how hacker group APT10 conducted persistent attacks since 2017 on global telecommunications providers. Cybereason concluded that APT10 operates “on behalf of the Chinese Ministry of State Security,” China’s chief intelligence agency. They were to obtain call detail records (CDR), which includes call time, duration, the involved phone numbers, and geolocation.

    MESSAGETAP

    FireEye published its study on text message security on Oct. 31, focusing on a new tool that APT41 is using: a malware named MESSAGETAP, to intercept people’s text messages worldwide.

    Text messages are also called short message service (SMS) messages, referring to the plain word messages that are sent and received by cellphones.

    The report explained that APT41 hackers installed MESSAGETAP on the Short Message Service Center (SMSC) servers of the targeted telecom carriers. The malware can then monitor all network connections to and from the server.

    MESSAGETAP can intercept all SMS messaging traffic, which includes the content of the messages; their cellphones’ unique identifiers, known as international mobile subscriber identity (IMSI) number; and the source and destination phone numbers.

    Furthermore, the hackers can set up keywords in MESSAGETAP, allowing the malware to filter the content that the hackers are looking for.

    During the investigation, FireEye found out that hackers searched keywords such as the names of “foreign high-ranking individuals of interest to the Chinese intelligence services,” as well as political leaders, military and intelligence organizations, and political movements.

    FireEye said they observed four telecommunication organizations being targeted by APT41 in 2019.

    APT41’s Targets

    FireEye previously released a full report on APT41 in August, titled “Double Dragon: APT41, a dual espionage and cyber crime operation.”

    “Double” refers to the fact that “APT41 is a Chinese state-sponsored espionage group that is also conducting financially motivated activity for personal gain,” since 2012. It did not provide further details about who has hired APT41’s services.

    One particular pattern emerged: “APT41 targets industries in a manner generally aligned with China’s Five-Year economic development plans” and Beijing’s ten-year’s plan “Made in China 2025,” according to the report.

    The hacker group also gathers intelligence ahead of important events, such as mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and political events.

    Made in China 2025,” first launched in 2015, is an economic blueprint for China to become the dominant manufacturing nation in the world in 10 key high-technology verticals, such as pharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence, and robotics.

    APT41 targets healthcare (including medical devices and diagnostics), pharmaceuticals, retail, software companies, telecoms, travel services, education, video games, and virtual currencies, according to the report.

    APT41 has targeted firms in those sectors located in the United States, UK, France, Italy, Holland, Switzerland, Turkey, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, India, Myanmar, Thailand, and South Africa.

    Purpose and Tools

    FireEye found out that APT41 focused on stealing intellectual property from those targeted countries. But beginning in mid-2015, the hackers “have moved toward strategic intelligence collection and establishing access and away from direct intellectual property theft.”

    The hacker group uses “over 46 different malware families and tools to accomplish their missions, including publicly available utilities, malware shared with other Chinese espionage operations, and tools unique to the group,” the report said.

    In order for a firm to protect itself from potential attacks from APT41, FireEye warned firms not to open unfamiliar emails: “The group often relies on spear-phishing emails with attachments such as compiled HTML (.chm) files to initially compromise their victims.”


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 21:25

  • The Rise Of Robots Is Crippling Jobs In The Already Recessionary Auto Industry
    The Rise Of Robots Is Crippling Jobs In The Already Recessionary Auto Industry

    It’s no longer a question of “if” we’re going to all eventually be replaced with robot overlords in the workplace, it’s a question of “when”.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The nuances of how this is going to occur – like which industries are likely to see to the most disruption from automation – were the topic of a new study published by St. Louis Fed Economist Maximiliano Dvorkin and Research Associate Asha Bharadwaj.

    The authors found that there has been predominantly a decline in U.S. “middle-skill” occupations as a result of automation. This was despite growth in both high- and low-skill occupations occurring at the same time. 

    According to the authors, this job polarization is a result of “automation and offshoring, because both these forces lower the demand for middle-skill occupations relative to the rest.”

    In the study, the authors looked at two types of work:

    1. Whether jobs involve routine tasks or nonroutine tasks

    2. Whether jobs use mostly cognitive skills or manual skills (brain vs. brawn)

    They also looked at how the state of employment has changed across these four categories:

    • Nonroutine cognitive, which includes management, professional and related occupations

    • Nonroutine manual, which includes service occupations related to assisting or caring for others, such as health care support, food preparation and serving, and cleaning

    • Routine cognitive, which includes sales and office occupations

    • Routine manual, which includes construction, transportation, production and repair occupations

    The study found that “employment in nonroutine occupations, both cognitive and manual, has been increasing steadily for several decades, while employment in routine occupations has been mostly stagnant or even declining.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The authors also honed in on robots used specifically for industrial automation processes. 

    The study found: “Industrial robots are fully autonomous machines that do not require any human intervention and can be reprogrammed to perform several manual tasks. For instance, technologies like tractors or elevators are not industrial robots since they are able to perform only specific tasks and require some degree of human intervention.”

    And the use of robots in industrial automation isn’t just prominent in the U.S. – industrial robots per thousand workers was higher in Germany and Italy.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    “France and the average of the countries Spain, the U.K. and Sweden were ahead of the U.S. in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but in the last decade, it seems that the U.S. has overtaken these countries,” the study found. 

    Arguably the most important finding, however, was that the automotive industry – an industry already being ravaged by recession and job cuts – is seeing the highest distribution of robots out of all industries.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The study concluded: “Clearly, the automotive industry is by far the largest user of robots, in the U.S. as well as in other advanced countries around the world. For instance, in 2014, the automotive industry accounted for around 54% of the total U.S. stock of robots. For Germany, the share was higher, at around 60%.”

    It’s just another brick in the wall of the worsening picture if you are dependent on the automotive industry, which has collapsed globally over the last 18 months, take make your living. 


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 21:05

  • Living Under The Spectre Of Hyperinflation: 1923 Weimar And Today
    Living Under The Spectre Of Hyperinflation: 1923 Weimar And Today

    Authored by Matthew Ehret via The StrategiC ulture Foundation,

    While world’s attention is absorbed by tectonic shifts unfolding across the Middle East, and as many Americans are brainwashed to believe the 2020 elections are driven by the need to impeach President Trump, something very ominous has appeared “off of the radar” of most onlookers. This something is a financial collapse of the western banks that threatens to unleash chaos upon the world.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    In my last report, I discussed why the current financial system is on the verge of a 1923-Weimar style hyperinflation driven by Federal Reserve bailouts trying desperately to support a deleveraging of the $1200 trillion derivatives bubble that has taken over the western banking system. I also discussed the Bank of England-led “solution” currently to this crisis involves a new global “green” digital currency with new “rules” which are very similar to the 1923 Bank of England “solution” to Germany’s economic chaos which eventually required a fascist governance mechanism to impose it onto the masses.

    In this article, I wish to take a deeper look at the causes and effects of Weimar Germany’s completely un-necessary collapse into hyperinflation and chaos during the period of 1919-1923.

    Versailles and the Destruction of Germany

    Britain had been the leading hand behind the orchestration of WWI and the destruction of the potential German-Russian-American-Ottoman alliance that had begun to take form by the late 19th century as foolish Kaiser Wilhelm discovered (though sadly too late) when he said: “the world will be engulfed in the most terrible of wars, the ultimate aim of which is the ruin of Germany. England, France and Russia have conspired for our annihilation… that is the naked truth of the situation which was slowly but surely created by Edward VII”.

    Just as the British oligarchy managed the war, so too did they organize the reparations conference in France which, among other things, imposed impossible debt repayments upon a defeated Germany and created the League of Nations which was meant to become the instrument for a “post-nation state world order”. Lloyd George led the British delegation alongside his assistant Philip Kerr (Lord Lothian), Leo Amery, Lord Robert Cecil and Lord John Maynard Keynes who have a long term agenda to bring about a global dictatorship. All of these figures were members of the newly emerging Round Table Movement, that had taken full control of Britain by ousting Asquith in 1916, and which is at the heart of today’s “deep state”.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    After the 1918 Armistice dismantled Germany’s army and navy, the once powerful nation was now forced to pay the impossible sum of 132 billion gold marks to the victors and had to give up territories representing 10% of its population (Alsace-Loraine, Ruhr, and North Silesia) which made up 15% of its arable land, 12% of its livestock, 74% of its iron ore, 63% of its zinc production, and 26% of its coal. Germany also had to give up 8000 locomotives, 225 000 railcars and all of its colonies. It was a field day of modern pillage.

    Germany was left with very few options. Taxes were increased and imports were cut entirely while exports were increased. This policy (reminiscent of the IMF austerity techniques in use today) failed entirely as both fell 60%. Germany gave up half of its gold supply and still barely a dent was made in the debt payments. By June 1920 the decision was made to begin a new strategy: increase the printing press. Rather than the “miracle cure” which desperate monetarists foolishly believed it would be, this solution resulted in an asymptotic devaluation of the currency into hyperinflation. From June 2020 to October 1923 the money supply in circulation skyrocketed from 68.1 gold marks to 496.6 quintillion gold marks. In June 1922, 300 marks exchanged $1 US and in November 1923, it took 42 trillion marks to get $1 US! Images are still available of Germans pushing wheel barrows of cash down the street, just to buy a stick of butter and bread (1Kg of Bread sold for $428 billion marks in 1923).

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    With the currency’s loss of value, industrial output fell by 50%, unemployment rose to over 30% and food intake collapsed by over half of pre-war levels. German director Fritz Lang’s 1922 film Dr. Mabuse (The Gambler) exposed the insanity of German population’s collapse into speculative insanity as those who had the means began betting against the German mark in order to protect themselves thus only helping to collapse the mark from within. This is very reminiscent of those Americans today short selling the US dollar rather than fighting for a systemic solution.

    1923: City of London’s Solution is imposed

    When the hyperinflationary blowout of Germany resulted in total un-governability of the state, a solution took the form of the Wall Street authored “Dawes Plan” which necessitated the use of a London-trained golem by the name of Hjalmar Schacht. First introduced as Currency Commissioner in November 1923 and soon President of the Reichsbank, Schacht’s first act was to visit Bank of England’s governor Montagu Norman in London who provided Schacht a blueprint for proceeding with Germany’s restructuring. Schacht returned to “solve” the crisis with the very same poison that caused it.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    First announcing a new currency called the “rentenmark” set on a fixed value exchanging 1 trillion reichsmarks for 1 new rentenmark, Germans were robbed yet again. This new currency would operate under “new rules” never before seen in Germany’s history: Mass privatizations resulted in Anglo-American conglomerates purchasing state enterprises. IG Farben, Thyssen, Union Banking, Brown Brothers Harriman, Standard Oil, JP Morgan and Union Banking took control Germany’s finances, mining and industrial interests under the supervision of John Foster Dulles, Montagu Norman, Averill Harriman and other deep state actors. This was famously exposed in the 1961 film Judgement at Nuremburg by Stanley Kramer.

    Schacht next cut credit to industries, raised taxes and imposed mass austerity on “useless spending”. 390 000 civil servants were fired, unions and collective bargaining was destroyed and wages were slashed by 15%.

    As one can imagine, this destruction of life after the hell of Versailles was intolerable and civil unrest began to boil over in ways that even the powerful London-Wall Street bankers (and their mercenaries) couldn’t control. An enforcer was needed unhindered by the republic’s democratic institutions to force Schacht’s economics onto the people. An up-and-coming rabble rousing failed painter who had made waves in a Beerhall Putsch on November 8, 1923 was perfect.

    One Last Attempt to Save Germany

    Though Hitler grew in power over the coming decade of Schachtian economics, one last republican effort was made to prevent Germany from plunging into a fascist hell in the form of the November 1932 election victory of General Kurt von Schleicher as Chancellor of Germany. Schleicher had been a co-architect of Rapallo alongside Rathenau a decade earlier and was a strong proponent of the Friedrich List Society’s program of public works and internal improvements promoted by industrialist Wilhelm Lautenbach. The Nazi party’s public support collapsed and it found itself bankrupt. Hitler had fallen into depression and was even contemplating suicide when “a legal coup” was unleashed by the Anglo-American elite resulting in Wall Street funds pouring into Nazi coffers.

    By January 30, 1933 Hitler gained Chancellorship where he quickly took dictatorial powers under the “state of emergency” caused by the burning of the Reichstag in March 1933. By 1934 the Night of the Long Knives saw General Schleicher and hundreds of other German patriots assassinated and it was only a few years until the City of London-Wall Street Frankenstein monster stormed across the world.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The New Silk Road or New World Order

    Today’s world sits atop a bubble of unimagined proportions which began to blow in 2008 and has been kept afloat by nothing more than a decade of blind hope mixed with money printing, zero interest rates, speculation and austerity. The PHYSICAL economic basis supporting the money system has been crippled due to 40 years of post-industrial consumerism rampant across the west. While it is admitted that the U.S dollar cannot remain the reserve currency for the world as it has from 1945-present, those same central banking forces from London have admitted that if their plans for a “one-world” green digital currency is not forced onto nations, then China’s Yuan and the New Silk Road will shape the new system.

    Whether London will manage to succeed in 2020 pushing a fascist de-carbonization (ie: depopulation) scheme onto the world where their 1920 Monster failed remains to be seen.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 20:45

  • US Army Purchases 624 Robotic Mules For Combat Use
    US Army Purchases 624 Robotic Mules For Combat Use

    In an effort to rapidly modernize before the next large-scale military conflict, the US Army has purchased 624 robotic mules from General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS), a deal worth more than $162 million, reported Defense Blog.

    GDLS’ MUTT (Multi-Utility Tactical Transport) is designed to reduce a soldier’s load by carrying gear on an 8×8 unmanned ATV. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    According to Army officials, MUTT can haul up to 1,000 pounds of gear and is designed to follow infantry soldiers on the battlefield, through some of the harshest terrains. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Infantry soldiers carry between 60-120 pounds of gear, and MUTT can alleviate nearly 80% of the weight, which allows soldiers to move swiftly across the battlefield.  

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    MUTT comes in several sizes: tracked, 6×6, and 8×8. It measures 9 feet long by 5 feet wide, can carry 1,000 pounds of gear, and also provide 3,000 watts of power, in addition to a 60-mile range. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Besides hauling soldiers’ heavy gear packs, MUTT can hold anti-tank missiles and or spare ammunition. 

    Several other uses include evacuating wounded soldiers from frontlines, surveillance missions with high-tech sensors, and it can even be outfitted with machine guns, anti-tank missiles, and or grenade launchers to conduct attack missions. 

    In 2H18, soldiers from the 10th Mountain Division at Fort Drum, New York, were given several MUTTs for a field training exercise that simulated warzone like conditions. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    “It’s a huge upgrade for the dismounted reconnaissance troop. I picked up five casualties in one night at different locations with this vehicle [MUTT] that I wouldn’t have been able to do. I’d have been able to make it to maybe two,” said 1st Sgt. Joshua Richards, 1st Brigade Combat Team.

    The next big push with the Army are robots for the modern battlefield. Before you know it, these artificially intelligent machines will be making war decessions without any or limited input from humans. The rise of the terminator is happening. 

     


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 20:25

  • Dalio: "The World Has Gone Mad And The System Is Broken"
    Dalio: "The World Has Gone Mad And The System Is Broken"

    Authored by Ray Dalio via LinkedIn.com,

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    I say these things because:

    • Money is free for those who are creditworthy because the investors who are giving it to them are willing to get back less than they give. More specifically investors lending to those who are creditworthy will accept very low or negative interest rates and won’t require having their principal paid back for the foreseeable future. They are doing this because they have an enormous amount of money to invest that has been, and continues to be, pushed on them by central banks that are buying financial assets in their futile attempts to push economic activity and inflation up. The reason that this money that is being pushed on investors isn’t pushing growth and inflation much higher is that the investors who are getting it want to invest it rather than spend it. This dynamic is creating a “pushing on a string” dynamic that has happened many times before in history (though not in our lifetimes) and was thoroughly explained in my book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises. As a result of this dynamic, the prices of financial assets have gone way up and the future expected returns have gone way down while economic growth and inflation remain sluggish. Those big price rises and the resulting low expected returns are not just true for bonds; they are equally true for equities, private equity, and venture capital, though these assets’ low expected returns are not as apparent as they are for bond investments because these equity-like investments don’t have stated returns the way bonds do. As a result, their expected returns are left to investors’ imaginations. Because investors have so much money to invest and because of past success stories of stocks of revolutionary technology companies doing so well, more companies than at any time since the dot-com bubble don’t have to make profits or even have clear paths to making profits to sell their stock because they can instead sell their dreams to those investors who are flush with money and borrowing power. There is now so much money wanting to buy these dreams that in some cases venture capital investors are pushing money onto startups that don’t want more money because they already have more than enough; but the investors are threatening to harm these companies by providing enormous support to their startup competitors if they don’t take the money. This pushing of money onto investors is understandable because these investment managers, especially venture capital and private equity investment managers, now have large piles of committed and uninvested cash that they need to invest in order to meet their promises to their clients and collect their fees.

    • At the same time, large government deficits exist and will almost certainly increase substantially, which will require huge amounts of more debt to be sold by governments—amounts that cannot naturally be absorbed without driving up interest rates at a time when an interest rate rise would be devastating for markets and economies because the world is so leveraged long. Where will the money come from to buy these bonds and fund these deficits? It will almost certainly come from central banks, which will buy the debt that is produced with freshly printed money. This whole dynamic in which sound finance is being thrown out the window will continue and probably accelerate, especially in the reserve currency countries and their currencies—i.e., in the US, Europe, and Japan, and in the dollar, euro, and yen. 

    • At the same time, pension and healthcare liability payments will increasingly be coming due while many of those who are obligated to pay them don’t have enough money to meet their obligations. Right now many pension funds that have investments that are intended to meet their pension obligations use assumed returns that are agreed to with their regulators. They are typically much higher (around 7%) than the market returns that are built into the pricing and that are likely to be produced. As a result, many of those who have the obligations to deliver the money to pay these pensions are unlikely to have enough money to meet their obligations. Those who are recipients of these benefits and expecting these commitments to be adhered to are typically teachers and other government employees who are also being squeezed by budget cuts. They are unlikely to quietly accept having their benefits cut. While pension obligations at least have some funding, most healthcare obligations are funded on a pay-as-you-go basis, and because of the shifting demographics in which fewer earners are having to support a larger population of baby boomers needing healthcare, there isn’t enough money to fund these obligations either. Since there isn’t enough money to fund these pension and healthcare obligations, there will likely be an ugly battle to determine how much of the gap will be bridged by 1) cutting benefits, 2) raising taxes, and 3) printing money (which would have to be done at the federal level and pass to those at the state level who need it). This will exacerbate the wealth gap battle. While none of these three paths are good, printing money is the easiest path because it is the most hidden way of creating a wealth transfer and it tends to make asset prices rise. After all, debt and other financial obligations that are denominated in the amount of money owed only require the debtors to deliver money; because there are no limitations made on the amounts of money that can be printed or the value of that money, it is the easiest path. The big risk of this path is that it threatens the viability of the three major world reserve currencies as viable storeholds of wealth. At the same time, if policy makers can’t monetize these obligations, then the rich/poor battle over how much expenses should be cut and how much taxes should be raised will be much worse. As a result rich capitalists will increasingly move to places in which the wealth gaps and conflicts are less severe and government officials in those losing these big tax payers will increasingly try to find ways to trap them.

    • At the same time as money is essentially free for those who have money and creditworthiness, it is essentially unavailable to those who don’t have money and creditworthiness, which contributes to the rising wealth, opportunity, and political gaps. Also contributing to these gaps are the technological advances that investors and the entrepreneurs that I previously mentioned are excited by in the ways I described, and that also replace workers with machines. Because the “trickle-down” process of having money at the top trickle down to workers and others by improving their earnings and creditworthiness is not working, the system of making capitalism work well for most people is broken. 

    This set of circumstances is unsustainable and certainly can no longer be pushed as it has been pushed since 2008. That is why I believe that the world is approaching a big paradigm shift.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 20:11

  • Schlichter: Trump Is Derailing The Elite's Gravy Train
    Schlichter: Trump Is Derailing The Elite's Gravy Train

    Authored by Kurt Schlichter, op-ed via Townhall.com,

    Like the garbage French elite of long ago, our American garbage elite of today has learned nothing and forgotten nothing.

    For four years, it has been focused entirely on deep-sixing Donald Trump for his unforgivable crime of demanding that our ruling caste be held accountable for its legacy of failure. Instead of focusing on not being terrible at their job of running America’s institutions, our elitists have decided that the real problem is us Normals being angry about how they are terrible at their job of running America’s institutions.

    So, let’s imagine that they finally vanquish Trump, though every time they come up against him they end up dragging themselves home like Ned Beatty after a particularly tough canoe trip.

    What happens then?

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    What happens then is that it’s back to business as usual, and for decades, business as usual for our garbage elite has not merely been running our institutions badly but pillaging and looting our country for power, prestige and cash.

    The difference is that in the future they will be much more careful to ensure that no one who is not in on the scam will ever again come anywhere near the levers of power. You can already see it – the demands that we defer to the bureaucrats they own, the attacks on the idea of free expression, and the campaign to disarm us. Their objective is no more Trumps, just an endless line of progressive would-be Maduros with the march toward despair occasionally put on pause for a term by some Fredocon Republican who hates us Normals just as much as the Dems, but won’t admit it until after he’s out of office.

    Our garbage elite talks a good game about its service and moral superiority, but if our betters were actually better than us, we would not be having this national conversation about how awful they are.

    The fact is that what they want to do is go back to the way it was before Trump, back to 2015, aka the year 1 BT – Before Trump. Back then, progressive Democrats got their bizarre social pathologies normalized. Moderate Democrats got money, power and an open season on the local talent. Corporate types represented largely by squishy Republicans got globalism and the ability to ship our jobs out and import Third World serfs in. And the fake conservatives of Conservative, Inc., got to cash in without the necessity of actually conserving anything.

    The only people that the old system didn’t work for were the American people.

    It’s important to remember and to always remind yourself, that everything our elite says about its motives and morals is a lie and a scam. Take the whole #MeToo thing. This was supposed to be some sort of revolutionary rebellion against the sexual exploitation of the powerless by the powerful. It’s not, and never was. Rather, it’s simply an internal power struggle among and within the elites to reallocate power among snooty people who don’t give a damn about you or me.

    The fall of Harvey Weinstein or Matt Lauer or any of the other bigwigs means nothing to the conservative single mom being exploited by the Democrat donors who own Walmart. It was actually striving female members of the elite – actresses, models, media figures, executives – leveraging the monstrosity of the creeps at the top to increase their own power within the elite. Do you see any of these #MeToo heroines, now that they have taken their scalps, helping their non-elite sisters out in Gun-Jesusland? Yeah, right. They are lining up with the rest of their elite pals to shaft us.

    What you do see is excuses. They excuse Bill Clinton and his enabler Felonia Milhous von Pantsuit. They excuse Gropey Joe. They are in the process of excusing Katie Hill, whose naked hairbrush photo has ensured that none of us will ever sit on a hotel room chair again. Why no outrage? Why no concern? Because taking out Stumbles McMyturn or Hoover’s Dad or Congresswoman Every Man’s Lesbian Fantasy Destroyer does not help the faction of the elite that benefited from #MeToo. That would help us, but not the elite. Throuple Gal was exposed by Townhall’s peppery sister site Redstate, not the mainstream media, and the mainstream media is horrified – not by her furniture defilement but that word of it got through the gate they yearn to keep.

    The simple fact is that they desperately want Trump out so they can return to the good old days of winks, nods, and payoffs.

    Look at the Biden Family Crime Syndicate and the antics of the junior capo of the Cosa Nose Candy. In what universe is it A-OK that the crack-fueled Johnny Appleseed of paternity suits that is Joe’s snortunate son was cashing in on $50K a month in sweet, sweet Ukrainian gas gold just weeks after Ensign Biden got booted because he tooted? And then there’s riding on Air Force Two to the NBA’s favorite dictatorship for some commie ducats. Now there are even some Romanian shenanigans too – is there a single country on earth that Totally-Not-Senile Joe didn’t shake down for the benefit of his daughter-in-law’s second hubby?

    But our garbage elite’s garbage media seems amazingly uninterested in all this – it’s fascinated by the timing of a situation room snap after Trump unleashed the Army’s Delta Force on al-Baghdadi and by dog medal memes, but the Veep’s boy’s bag-mannery is not merely of no interest but is something they close their fussy phalanx ranks around to protect. Keep in mind, the premise underlying the whole star chamber impeachment festival of onanism is that Donald Trump, America’s chief law enforcement officer, was somehow wrong and bad and double-plus ungood because he allegedly asked the Ukrainians, “Hey, what’s the dealio with the Columbia Kid’s pay-offs?”

    In a non-bizarro political universe, the proper reaction to the Prezzy demanding, “You best fork over the evidence on these manifestly corrupt antics involving the Vice-President of the United States or we’re cutting you off from the American taxpayers’ feeding trough,” would be, “Hell to the yeah, four more years! Four more years!’

    But it’s not, because the elite likes its sexual abuse and its foreign cash and its total lack of accountability to us, the Normals, the people who are supposed to be the ones that our elite is working for. The elite has not learned its lesson. It has not admitted that it sucks and resolved to stop sucking.

    Instead, it has doubled down. And if it gets power again, it will act to solve what it sees as the most urgent problem facing America – the fact that we the people have the ability to reject the elite’s utter incompetence and surpassing greed and elect someone with a mandate to burn down the whole rotten edifice.

    If the elitists get power again, they are never letting go of it, not without a fight. And now, doesn’t the elite’s obsessive fixation on shutting down conservative dissent, eliminating competing institutions (like religious entities), and disarming law-abiding Americans make a lot more sense?

    *  *  *

    Our garbage elite is outraged over the success of my action-packed yet hilarious novels of America torn apart by liberal malice, People’s RepublicIndian Country and Wildfire. In a few weeks, Number IV, Collapse, will drop. They call these books “appalling.” They don’t want you to read them. That’s better than any blurb!


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 20:05

  • Most Severe Internet Outage To Date Hits Iraq After Government Blocks Access
    Most Severe Internet Outage To Date Hits Iraq After Government Blocks Access

    Iraqi anti-government demonstrators fear a major new crackdown is coming after much of the nation’s internet access has been cut, especially in the restive south. This also as Baghdad authorities fear outside ‘foreign interference’ after President Trump referenced the mass protests on Twitter. 

    A nearly nationwide blockage was first reported last night, and was briefly restored early Tuesday before being cut off again. “At the time of writing, national connectivity has fallen below 19% of normal levels sending tens of millions of users offline across Baghdad, also impacting Basra, Karbala and other population centers,” Reuters cited NetBlocks as stating late in the day Monday. “The new disruption is believed to be the most severe observed in Iraq to date,” the report added.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    The large scale protests, raging for over a month, have resulted in violent clashes with police, and involved Iraq’s paramilitary units backed by Iran.

    And NetBlocks monitoring group further observed into Tuesday  “Internet shut down again across most of Iraq following brief 3.5 hour restoration; real-time network data show national connectivity currently at 30% of ordinary levels” — related to the ongoing mass protests which have swept the country for over the past month. 

    After accusations of Iran being involved in assisting and directing Baghdad security forces’ crackdown, which in many case has involved live ammo to disband crowds, resulting at this point in over 250 Iraqis killed and nearly 10,000 wounded, there’s growing fears that a Syria-style broader proxy war could emerge. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The major government ordered blockage came a day after on Sunday the Iranian consulate in the city of Karbala came under attack by throngs of demonstrators and was torched, in the latest sign of public backlash over perceived Iranian control of Iraq’s politics and military. 

    On Sunday President Trump retweeted two videos showing the attack on the consulate, no doubt as encouragement given it was an Iranian target. It’s possible or even likely that this was a deciding factor in authorities blocking internet access for most of the country. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    President Trump retweeted the above, along with another video of the consulate attack.

    NetBlocks and the NGO Internet Society have estimated that the current internet blockage, the most significant in the nation’s history, has now cost Iraq over $1.3 billion.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 19:45

  • All US Intel Agencies Confirm No Evidence Of Meddling In Election, Urge Everyone To Panic Nonetheless
    All US Intel Agencies Confirm No Evidence Of Meddling In Election, Urge Everyone To Panic Nonetheless

    Let the fearmongering begin…

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    In a joint statement from the alphabet soup of US intel agencies (DOJ, DOD, DHS, DNI, FBI, NSA, and GSA) on ensuring the security of the 2020 elections, officials would like you to know that while there is no current evidence of any threats, “foreign malicious actors” are out there hating you for your freedom and democracy and ready to meddle…

    Attorney General William Barr, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, Acting Secretary of Homeland Security Kevin McAleenan, Acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire, FBI Director Christopher Wray, U.S. Cyber Command Commander and NSA Director Gen. Paul Nakasone, and CISA Director Christopher Krebs today released the following joint statement:

    Today, dozens of states and local jurisdictions are hosting their own elections across the country and, less than a year from now Americans will go to the polls and cast their votes in the 2020 presidential election. Election security is a top priority for the United States Government. Building on our successful, whole-of-government approach to securing the 2018 elections, we have increased the level of support to state and local election officials in their efforts to protect elections. The federal government is prioritizing the sharing of threat intelligence and providing support and services that improve the security of election intelligence and providing support and services that improve the security of election infrastructure across the nation.

    In an unprecedented level of coordination, the U.S. government is working with all 50 states and U.S. territories, local officials, and private sector partners to identify threats, broadly share information, and protect the democratic process. We remain firm in our commitment to quickly share timely and actionable information, provide support and services, and to defend against any threats to our democracy.

    Our adversaries want to undermine our democratic institutions, influence public sentiment and affect government policies. Russia, China, Iran, and other foreign malicious actors all will seek to interfere in the voting process or influence voter perceptions.

    Adversaries may try to accomplish their goals through a variety of means, including social media campaigns, directing disinformation operations or conducting disruptive or destructive cyber-attacks on state and local infrastructure.

    While at this time we have no evidence of a compromise or disruption to election infrastructure that would enable adversaries to prevent voting change vote counts or disrupt the ability to tally votes, we continue to vigilantly monitor any threats to U.S. elections.

    The U.S. government will defend our democracy and maintain transparency with the American public about our efforts. An informed public is a resilient public. Americans should go to trusted sources for election information, such as their state and local election officials. We encourage every American to report any suspicious activity to their local officials, the FBI, or DHS.

    In past election cycles, reporting by Americans about suspicious activity provided valuable insight which has made our elections more secure. The greatest means to combat these threats is a whole-of-society effort.

    In other words: be afraid, be very afraid, see something, say something – and do not question any crackdowns on your liberty and it is merely a temporary repression for your own good and to save democracy.


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 19:29

    Tags

  • Why Your New Jail Cell May Be Your Home 
    Why Your New Jail Cell May Be Your Home 

    A housing affordability crisis, depressed wages, insurmountable debts, and a downturn in the economy have paralyzed US homeowners as their ability to move collapses. 

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    US homeowners in 2019 had spent an average of 13 years in their home, up from eight years in 2010, reported Redfin.

    Across 55 metros Redfin analyzed, homeowners in all regions stayed in their home much longer versus 2010.

    Salt Lake City, UT; Houston, TX; Fort Worth, TX; San Antonio, TX; and Dallas, TX were some of the metropolitan areas where homeowners were staying the longest as their economic mobility rotted away over the last decade or so.

    Here are the top 18 cities where homeowners were staying in their homes the longest:

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    This means your home is your prison, and it’s possible new homeowners will be stuck in their new purchases for a much more extended period than ones before them after the next recession strikes. That is because many of the new homeowners are millennials with insurmountable debts. 

    It’s not just mortgage debt that will hold back millennial homeowners from moving — their student loans, auto loans, and credit card debt will also be a significant factor. 

    Plus, most millennials have been purchasing homes at the highest price extremes, they will have to wait for the Federal Reserve to blow up the housing bubble again before they can break even after prices fall in the next recession. 

    With economic mobility among all homeowners deteriorating, this is the latest example that the “greatest economy ever” is merely a hoax. 


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 19:05

  • Does Entire "Success" Of Democrats Depend On Keeping The American People Wildly Ignorant Of Reality?
    Does Entire "Success" Of Democrats Depend On Keeping The American People Wildly Ignorant Of Reality?

    Authored by JD Heyes via NaturalNews.com,

    The few times in our history when Congress has either voted to impeach a president or considered returning articles of impeachment, the process was handled very publicly.

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Hearings were not held in secret. Testimony was not taken behind closed doors. Witnesses and evidence were presented out in the open so the American people, through various media of the day, were well aware of what was happening.

    The reasons for the openness should be obvious, but alas, they are not for far too many Americans.

    First of all, allowing someone accused of criminal activity to face his or her accuser is a fundamental legal principle of our founding. 

    Secondly, secret trials were banned hundreds of years ago because they are the legal instruments of tyrants: Kings and dictators holding secret proceedings can present phony “evidence” in order to achieve convictions. 

    Third, the accused are permitted legal representation of their own so they can challenge the prosecution’s witnesses and alleged “evidence.”

    None of these founding principles are being applied to the current “impeachment inquiry” involving President Donald Trump.

    Democrats, led by Rep. Adam Schiff of California, are holding the inquiry behind closed doors. They are bringing in ‘witnesses’ whose testimony is being sequestered – even as Schiff has been accused of leaking the contents of some witness testimony completely out of context. 

    Also, no one on the president’s legal team has been able to question any of the witnesses Democrats have called in to testify. So he doesn’t know what’s being said — other than what Schiff is leaking to the “mainstream media,” which is dutifully reporting what they’ve been provided, sans corroboration.

    It’s the most un-American legal process one could ever have envisioned. Worse, this is supposedly involving an impeachment process — one that, theoretically, could involve the removal of a duly elected president 63 million Americans voted for. (Related: “Ukraine” whistleblower suddenly not going to testify before Adam Schiff’s secret committee — so what’s the “impeachment inquiry” really for?)

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    We will rue the day we allow our country to be stolen from us

    In short, nothing about this process should be held in secret. Communist countries and others who are run by dictators have secret ‘legal’ proceedings, but clearly none that would involve the leader of the country.

    Democracies don’t operate that way and our unique American republic was never supposed to operate in the dark. 

    Granted, if the Democrat-controlled House ever does return actual articles of impeachment against President Trump, that will be conducted in the open. But knowing how secretive Democrats have been thus far, it’s a safe bet they’ll attempt to present as “evidence” the “testimony” of so-called “witnesses” who, thus far, have only appeared behind closed doors.

    It’s been said that ‘impeachable offenses’ are whatever the House of Representatives say they are in order to satisfy the Constitution’s “high crimes and misdemeanors” impeachment requirement. But clearly the processes employed against Trump are partisan in nature and not based on any semblance of historical precedent.

    As Americans, we can’t allow this process to be warped — by one political party and the media. The future of our country is far too important. 

    “President Trump is a disruptor. That makes some people very happy, and it makes some people very mad,” former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley said during a Friday speech at the American Enterprise Institute.

    “But if we are a country that lives by the rule of law, we must all accept that we have one president at a time, and that president attained his office by the choice of the American people.

    “No policy disagreement with him, no matter how heartfelt, justifies undermining the lawful authority that is vested in his office by the Constitution. … What’s at stake is not President Trump’s policies. What’s at stake is the Constitution,” she added.

    She’s exactly right. Nothing is worth losing our country. As long as we continue to have unimpeded free elections, there is always a chance to fix things. 


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 18:45

    Tags

  • "It's Obviously Disturbing" – Mortgage Market Reopens To Subprime Borrowers 
    "It's Obviously Disturbing" – Mortgage Market Reopens To Subprime Borrowers 

    After more than a decade since the subprime mortgage market triggered the 2008 financial meltdown, the strict lending standards placed on new homeowners post-crisis have disintegrated in the last three years.

    Homebuyers with low credit scores, gig-economy jobs, and high-debt loads (sounds like millennials), can now obtain mortgages and participate in the American dream of owning a home.

    Putting unqualified people back into homes is the latest example of stupidity from Wall Street, but the lack of oversight from the Federal Reserve and government. 

    The rapid surge of non-qualified, or non-QM bonds, is happening as cracks in the housing market have appeared. For instance, the housing price growth of major cities in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index has stalled. Delinquency rates of these unconventional loans have also started to tick higher. 

    “It’s obviously disturbing this late in the cycle to see originations for these loans at the kind of level they’ve kicked up to,” Daniel Alpert, managing partner at Westwood Capital, told Bloomberg. “The housing market is not quite ready for a big infusion of this product.”

    <!–[if IE 9]><![endif]–>

    Banks, who are underwriting these unconventional loans, are doing so through weakening standards very late in an economic expansion. The expectation is that a recession could arrive as early as next year, could lead to a further tick up in delinquency rates.

    The non-QM bond market is nowhere near the size of the subprime bond market of 2007/08. 

    “It’s not the subprime we remember from 2006 to 2007,” said Mario Rivera, managing director of the Fortress Credit Funds business, which has bought non-QM bonds. “It’s more of a second or third inning of non-QM. We’re getting the best collateral before the more aggressive lending comes in.”

    Bloomberg says the size of the non-QM bond market is about $27 billion, a tiny fraction compared to the $10 trillion mortgage-bond market. Back in 2007, the subprime mortgage bond market was approximately $1.8 trillion right before it imploded. 

    Nonbank mortgage lenders have largely underwritten these unconventional loans, but large banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co., Credit Suisse Group AG, and Citigroup Inc. have been entering the space since 2016.  

    Recent non-QM borrowers have had credit scores at or below 700, many have provided income statements rather than tax returns. Fitch Ratings analysis warns non-QM borrowers are susceptible to income fluctuations. 

    Fitch added that non-QM bonds have a lot more safeguards than the subprime ones did in 2007.

    “There’s a lot more cushion, as there should be,” said John Kerschner, head of U.S. securitized products at Janus Henderson Group Plc. “You can get some comfort that even if defaults inch up, the losses from those defaults aren’t going to be egregious.”

    And while the non-QM bond market won’t lead to the next financial armageddon like what was seen a decade ago, it certainly demonstrates that Wall Street is willing to create the same financial products that led up to the last crisis. 


    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 11/05/2019 – 18:25

Digest powered by RSS Digest