Today’s News 17th March 2017

  • Will Chrystia Freeland Finally Ruin Canadian-Russian Relations?

    Authored by Michael Jabara Carley via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    On 10 January 2017 Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau fired his minister of external affairs, Stéphane Dion, and replaced him with Chrystia Freeland, who was then minister of international trade. This cabinet shuffle might not have gotten much public notice except that Dion is a distinguished parliamentarian, former leader of the party and leader of the opposition, and a former key minister in the Liberal government of Jean Chrétien. Freeland, on the other hand, is a well-known Ukrainian ultra-nationalist and self-declared Russophobe and hater of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    On 10 January 2017 Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau fired his minister of external affairs, Stéphane Dion, and replaced him with Chrystia Freeland, who was then minister of international trade

    The sacking of Dion was also noteworthy because Trudeau had run on an electoral platform in 2015 promising, inter alia, to improve Canadian relations with Russia, spoilt by the Conservative government of Stephen Harper. When Dion became minister of external affairs, he confirmed the Liberal commitment to re-establish more constructive Canadian-Russian relations.

    He kept to this line even though Prime Minister Trudeau said that Canada would continue its close relations with the government in Kiev including the maintenance of Canadian military advisors in the Ukraine. Essentially, Trudeau said he intended to continue Tory policy on relations with Russia. No one paid much attention to the contradiction between Trudeau’s affirmation of Harper’s policy, and Dion’s periodic statements to the contrary.

    Dion could make little or no progress in improving Canadian-Russian relations, most certainly because the prime minister and Minister Freeland were against it. Nothing much was said publically because Trudeau had promised a different policy during the election campaign. Was he just another fork-tongued politician? Perhaps he is, and wanted to divert attention from un-kept electoral promises. Nor would it have been desirable to publicise a policy split inside the government.

    While Dion is a distinguished parliamentarian, former leader of the party and leader of the opposition, Freeland is a well-known Ukrainian ultra-nationalist and self-declared Russophobe

    When the news broke that Trudeau had replaced Dion with Freeland, Liberal sources whispered that Dion was not really suited to be a diplomat. He was irritable, they said, and had not mastered the diplomacy of using speech to conceal his thoughts. Radio Sputnik contacted me at the time for an interview. I commented that Freeland’s appointment was «a catastrophe» for Canadian-Russian relations, as indeed it is. Some elements of the Mainstream Media (MSM) in Canada picked up on my comments saying that Russian sources had claimed the sacking of Dion was a catastrophe. I rejoined that it was me, a Canadian citizen, who had so characterised the Freeland appointment, and not Russian sources.

    Is Trudeau just another fork-tongued politician?

    Why should Canadians care one way or another whether their government supports the Ukraine and sends arms and advisors there to strengthen Ukrainian military forces? Well, the most important reason is that the present government in Kiev is illegitimate in spite of democratic appearances. It is the spawn of a violent coup d’état in February 2014, brokered and supported by the United States and the European Union, which overthrew the democratically elected president Viktor Yanukovich. The vanguard of the Kiev coup d’état are neo-Nazi, fascist or ultra nationalist political and paramilitary organisations, notably the political party Svoboda, the paramilitary Pravyi sektor and various other paramilitary forces such as the so-called Azov and Aidar battalions. These paramilitary units were and are used to crush opposition in those parts of the Ukraine controlled by Kiev. Politicians, journalists, anyone speaking against the putsch government in Kiev could be, or were killed, beaten, jailed or forced to flee. The Ukrainian communist party was declared illegal. The governing Party of Regions has disappeared, some of its members being charged with criminal offences for having contacts with Russian counterparts. Others abandoned the party because it was neither safe nor practical to remain as members.

    Everywhere in the Kiev-controlled Ukraine, Nazi or SS symbols are readily observable

    The United States claims that the neo-Nazis are freaks and «a few bad apples». But the signs of fascism can be observed everywhere in the Kiev-controlled Ukraine. Nazi or SS symbols are readily observable. The Nazi swastika can be seen as a frequent tattoo amongst fascist militiamen. Torch light parades redolent of Nazi Germany are often staged in Kiev and other cities to frighten people opposed to the coup d’état. As with Nazism and Italian fascism, violence, force and atavistic masculinity are exalted to intimidate any opposition. Nazi collaborators during World War II are now transformed into national heroes, Stepan Bandera, for example, or the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) which perpetrated mass murders amongst Soviet and Polish civilian populations.

    In Ukraine, Nazi collaborators during World War II are now transformed into national heroes

    Neo-Nazi violence and intimidation worked in many places, but not in others. In the Crimea, the population united almost to the last man and woman, to toss out the putschist authorities and to vote for reunification with Russia. In the east, in the Donbass, the anti-fascist resistance repulsed Kiev punitive forces with heavy losses. These remarkable feats of arms, redolent of so many others in Russian history, were wasted by Moscow, which disregarded a first principle of war that one never lets an enemy withdraw to fight another day. «He who spares the aggressor», Stalin once remarked, «wants another war.» It may shock some people to hear Stalin quoted, but Plutarch, Sun Tzu, or Clausewitz might have said the same thing. Moscow supported the so-called Minsk peace accords which were never respected by the Kiev authorities. Ultra-nationalists even boasted that they had agreed to Minsk solely in order to rest and refit their beaten forces. It was only a ruse de guerre.

    In the Crimea, the population united almost to the last man and woman, to toss out the putschist authorities and to vote for reunification with Russia

    These are the forces which the Canadian government now supports with the enthusiastic backing of Minister Freeland. For her, it must be a lifelong dream-come-true. There has been much press comment during the last week or so about Freeland’s Ukrainian grandfather, Mykhailo Chomiak, a Nazi collaborator during World War II. Freeland claimed that he was only a refugee from Stalinist violence. He might have been, but he also collaborated with Nazi Germany. In many places in Europe, France and Italy, for example, collaborators were summarily shot or imprisoned after the war. In France, more than 5,000 were executed including Pierre Laval, a prominent French politician, who sided with Nazi Germany and vaunted collaboration to oppose the USSR. Another 38,000 French collaborators were jailed. Chomiak was lucky he was not hanged and that he ended up in northern Alberta, to die a well-to-do farmer.

    The story about Freeland’s grandfather was first put out by John Helmer, a long-time independent journalist living in Moscow. Freeland claimed a week or so ago that Russia was attempting «to destabilize the Western democracies»; and Canadian Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale asserted that poor Ms. Freeland was a victim of «Russian disinformation tactics».

    Should Freeland be held responsible for the sins of her grandfather? Obviously not. What is disturbing about Freeland is her intense hatred of Russia and the Russian government, and her confusion about her own national identity. I am, she has written, «one of Ukraine’s democrats.» If this is so, what is she doing as a minister in the Canadian government? Is she first and foremost a Canadian, or is she a Ukrainian ultra-nationalist whose primary objective is to use her ministerial post to defend the putsch government in Kiev and to exacerbate Canadian relations with Russia?

    If Freeland should be not be condemned for the sins of her grandfather—although she might not see them as sins—she can be condemned for her own words, publications and deeds. Even by her own proud admission, she has left a long trail of venomous hatred of Russia which can easily be uncovered by internet searching. She defends the putschists in Kiev and overlooks their violence. With more than a hint of Orwellian «newspeak», Freeland asserts that the violent coup d’état in Kiev against the democratically elected president was a defence of «democracy». Is she pursuing the same objectives, twice removed, of dedushka, or Grandpa Chomiak, by supporting the Kiev junta?

    That’s the problem with Freeland, who now constitutes a smoking grenade ready to go off at any moment under Canadian-Russian relations. Until now, the virulent, irrational, Russophobia afflicting the United States has not metastasised into Canada. It’s true that the Harper Conservatives were Russophobes, but when they lost power, it was possible to believe that sanity and pragmatism would return to Canadian relations with the Russian Federation. One had only to listen to Dion’s occasional statements on the subject to think that Canada was recovering its common sense. Canadians could breathe a sigh of relief and return the widely held idea that Canada is somehow a more civilised, sensible place to live than the United States.

    Unfortunately, Canadian complacency appears premature. On 8 March Macleans, the Canadian equivalent of Time magazine, published a big article as Russophobic and preposterous as any piece of American yellow journalism. The headline reads: «Russia’s Coming Attack on Canada». The subtitle is: «The smear job on Chrystia Freeland is only the start. Why Canada is a logical next target in Moscow’s desperate clandestine war.» The «smear job» is of course the outing of Grandpa Chomiak as a Nazi collaborator. The author spouts one line of rubbish after the next about Russia and then accuses the Russian government of outing Chomiak. In fact, it appears to have been John Helmer, an Australian, who published the first article on Freeland’s forebears.

    Further revelations followed from Alex Boykowich, a Ukrainian Canadian, who consulted Chomiak’s personal papers held in the Alberta provincial archives in Edmonton.

    «God, why did Grandpa keep those damned papers», Freeland must be thinking: «I should have burned them long ago.» Too late now, Ms. Freeland, the cat’s out of the bag.

    «Ravings» (délires), one Montréal journalist called Freeland’s accusations against Russia and Putin. Of course, no one would care about Freeland’s obsessive Russophobia except that she is  minister of  external affairs. She can encourage the metastasis of Russophobia into Canada, as she indeed has started to do.

    Trudeau’s neoliberalism is more American than Canadian

    The psychosis is spreading, as I discovered the other day in casual conversation with a respected colleague. Putin is another Stalin, he said, he’s crushed democracy in Russia, press freedom is dead, and no one dares to speak against him. Anyone who has spent time in Moscow knows that lots of people complain about Putin. He knows too, and tolerates it.

    «Sure he does» my interlocutor replied with a smile.

    I understood and changed the subject.

    People who voted Liberal in the last election thinking Trudeau fils would be like Trudeau père are now waking up to the reality that the son is nothing like the father. He is just another neoliberal pretty face, exploiting identity politics to pursue policy lines little different than those of his predecessor, the hated Stephen Harper. Trudeau’s neoliberalism is more American than Canadian. Is he part of the movement to sabotage any improvement of US-Russian relations?  If so, he’s pursuing a dangerous policy.  His external affairs minister is a fanatical Russophobe, hoist upon the petard of her words going back a long way. Is Freeland pursuing grandpa’s old dreams, collaborating with the ultra-nationalists and neo-Nazis in Kiev, all the while pretending they don’t exist?

    What should Canada’s surviving veterans think about the Liberal government sending Canadian advisors to train Kiev’s armed hooligans?

    More than 42,000 Canadian soldiers died during World War II to destroy fascism and Nazism. Is Freeland kicking sand on their graves by supporting the Kiev authorities and their celebration of Nazi collaboration? What should Canada’s surviving veterans think about the Liberal government sending Canadian advisors to train Kiev’s armed hooligans? «Against Russian aggression», Freeland would no doubt retort. But even MSM journalists in Canada, not as venal as their American counterparts, have derided such talk as «delusional». The question is will the majority of Canadians fall for Freeland’s dangerous Russophobia?

  • The Older I Get The More Irish I Become

    Growing up in a dominant Italian household, with pasta served every god damned night, I never bonded with my Irish side. My Father had died when I was 4, so I never got to know him or his side of the family. It was only when I got older did I begin to embrace my Irish side — especially on St. Paddy’s Day — a day designated for everyone to embrace the Irish culture. It might bemuse you to learn that I regale myself in all of the traditional accouterments — a full blown leprechaun trotting around in green garb, with dastardly designs at becoming as drunk as humanly possible.

    Over the years, I’ve had many memorable St. Paddy’s days, none of which included the fag parade. Typically, upon waking up, I toss the corned beef in a pot brimming with water, beer, and mustard seeds. After several hours of boiling the bastard, I always open up another beer (maybe 2) and pour it into the pot. Spending my time wisely, I drink a half dozen beers in record time — write a bunch of shit on the internet, trade a few stocks, then I peel a bunch of potatoes and dice up some cabbage.

    Making sure the beef is progressing according to schedule, I open the pot and poke at it — as if I know what the hell I’m doing. Then I simply drop all of the potatoes and cabbage into the pot, cover it, and then forget it ever existed for the next two hours or so.

    Dinner is well on its way.

    My house is usually filled with guests, all wanting to eat boiled food and drink lots of strong beer, so we make more than one pot of corned beef. Sometimes I crock pot one — or as my good friend likes to say, when pretending to be a world class chef, ‘slow cook’ it.

    Soon enough, the company begins to pile in — most clad in green garments or off-white cable knit sweaters — looking like old seamen just back from a month at sea. “How was the catch?”, I ask them. “Pretty good lad — now get me a fargin’ beer, would ya?”

    “Aye.”

    We’re playing the songs from the old country, naturally. Here are a few crowd pleasers.



    After we’ve been properly inebriated, the fatty meat, potatoes, and cabbage are served, liberally. People usually bring their own corned beef — so there’s plenty to go around. The music is blasting and the beers are being consumed at an industrial rate. Not before long, whiskey and single barrelled scotch are being passed around like bubble gum in a little league baseball dugout. The men venture outside to smoke a pipe or cigar, any sort of tobacco, and the rest of the night becomes a slow motion blur — intermingled between laughter, comical moments, and juvenile foolishness.

    Alas, by the end of the night, we’re all Irish — outraged, mind you, by the treatment of ‘our people’ by those fucking Brits.

    We wait one year hence and then do it all over again.

    Happy St. Paddy’s Day.
    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • A Burgeoning Growth Engine for Costco: Wanton Alcoholism

    Costco has to be the single best retail business in the world. A new Costco just opened in area and I signed up for their ‘executive’ membership card, which is something that I feel wholly ridiculous — but I did so nevertheless.

    In order to attain the privilege of shopping there, customers must pay an annual fee. In an era where every retailer is tripping over themselves to attract customers, this concept isn’t dually brilliant and absurd.

    Their private brand, Kirkland’s, has also attained legendary status — viewed by many as representative of value and quality. A new engine of growth for Costco is now enjoyed in wine, beer, and spirits.

    Last year, alcohol brought in $3.8b, half coming from bullshit wine. This business has grown by 46% over the past 5 years, outpacing food and sundries.

    “Private label continues to grow as a dominant strategy in retail — especially when it migrates from being a ‘label’ to more of a ‘brand,’ which Kirkland has done,” said David Bassuk, managing director at consulting firm AlixPartners in New York. “Now it’s a well-known name and gives the consumer a perception of value and a good deal.”

     
    The reason for their success lies in the perceived value. The company only marks up prices by 10-14% compared to industry norms of 25-40%.
     

     

    “They’re doing the opposite of looking to cut corners,” he said. “They’re looking for maximum quality and minimum markup to drive value for the member.”

     
    Other retailers like Whole Foods, Walmart, and Target have entered the private label business for booze too and have enjoyed success, thanks to America’s proclivity to drink themselves into stupors. Even still, Costco is widely regarded as the winner in this high growth space — clawhammering local liquor stores into a thousand pieces wherever they encounter them.

    Both the stock and revenue/earnings trends have been steady eddy, in spite of an overall lackluster retail environment.

    Ancillary beneficiaries are $STZ, $DEO and BF-b.

    Happy pre St. Paddy’s day.
    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

     

  • Why Do Leftists And Globalists Hate Tribalism So Much?

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    Over the years I have heard the word “tribalism” used consistently as a way to deride and attack conservative groups with political stances outside the boundaries of globalization. Many readers have been exposed to this propaganda recently as “tribalism” becomes the go-to denouncement of the Trump Administration. From The Atlantic to CNBC to The Washington Post and beyond, tribalism is used almost as often as the fascist label, and there are very specific reasons for this.

    Tribalism (like nationalism and populism) has slowly but surely been falsely associated with totalitarianism, as if the two are synonymous. The use of “tribalism” as a dismissal of sovereignty concepts is a distinctly globalist and leftist habit; clearly, they hate the very notion of it, so much so that they have sought to turn it into a four letter word. But why?

    The fact of the matter is, tribalism revolves around sets of principles; meaning, some people hold principles that are completely incompatible with other people's principles. Some principles simply cannot be reconciled with other principles, and they cannot coexist. Groups tend to form around principles, and thus, certain groups cannot live in close proximity with other groups. When they do live in close proximity, one will invariably absorb the other or destroy the other.

    This is more likely to occur when two groups have diametrically opposing views rather than minor deviations and disagreements.

    For example, the mass injection of millions of Muslim immigrants into European nations has in a very short period of time resulted in the steady decline of Western ideals and even the decline of legal frameworks in the areas where the immigrants concentrate. Sharia law is a direct antithesis to traditional Western values such as religious freedom, free speech, freedom of association, individual rights, economic independence, free markets, etc. (It is interesting to note that western socialists and communist ideals run parallel to Muslim culture when it comes to the desire to dismantle sovereignty.) The effects of this clash of principles are quite obvious at this point.

    Sharia-based groups have been transplanted into the Western sphere in what I consider a deliberate Cloward-Piven strategy of cultural destabilization of Europe.

    These groups do not assimilate, they devour the surrounding culture and turn it into something that sublimates in accordance with their principles. This is why the leftist and globalist call for “multiculturalism” is nonsensical. You cannot have two or more diametrically opposed cultures within the same society — one of them has to take precedence over all the others. Globalists in particular KNOW this is the reality, and they use multiculturalism as a means to undermine nations specifically built upon traditional sovereign values.

    Leftists are in most cases merely useful idiots that promote multiculturalism as a means of “penance.” That is to say, they believe that traditional western culture should be punished for past transgressions and in due course, phased out completely in exchange for a new utopian system.

    Both leftists and globalists will often try to argue that if tribalism was not prevalent there would be no ill will between Muslims and Westerners or any other groups for that matter. But, as stated earlier, what they are glossing over is the inevitability of groups separating based on principals.  The only way for all groups to coexist in close proximity in the multicultural paradise we are being sold is for ALL value systems to be eliminated except for one. And perhaps that is the point.

    Globalists prefer an outcome in which traditional values are erased and replaced with a “new world order” mindset; a system that is rooted in collectivist suppression of individual liberty, where freedom is exchanged for “harmony;” one global tribe worshiping one global god — the state.

    The existence of tribalism might lead to conflicts if opposing cultures are deliberately mashed together, but it also makes the formation of a single overarching tyranny very difficult. Globalists seek to irritate existing divisions and trigger chaos between groups because ultimately, they want to demonize the very concept of tribalism and make way for a one world ideal that fits THEIR agenda.

    Leftists are decidedly less self aware on why they fight so hard against tribalism. They see cultural division of any kind on the part of the west as inherently evil. Ironically, when it comes to so called “victim groups” like Muslims, social-justice warriors will argue that their aggressively divisive behavior is off limits to criticism because you have to be “from that culture to understand it”.  So, tribalism on the part of designated victim groups is beyond reproach, and tribalism on the part of westerners is a cancer that must be eradicated.

    To reiterate, leftists love tribalism initiated by those they consider victim groups.  They only hate tribalism when it is initiated by conservatives and the traditional western middle class.  The double standard is evident.

    Exactly what is happening here? Well, we are being given a false choice. We are offered tribalism at the cost of endless social crisis (which is being deliberately instigated), or, the erasure of tribalism and traditional principles for the sake of “peace.”  No other solutions are being presented.

    Liberty proponents like myself would point out that there is an underlying principle within natural law that could solve many of the problems that arise between groups with differing world views without sacrificing everything to join a one-world collectivist hive mind. That rule would be the “Non-Aggression Principle.”  To summarize, the non-aggression principle holds that no person or group has the right to impose their beliefs or will on another person or group. The only time force of action is warranted is in self defense and the defense of innocents.

    If a society was to operate by the rule of non-aggression, and people were to abide by that rule, then most groups and cultures could live peacefully. For the people who do not abide, removal from that society or nation would be necessary. This is the intrinsic advantage of tribalism in its purest form; tribalism allows us to discriminate against groups with destructive principles and behaviors, or against those that have different objectives. Some divisions are useful divisions. This allows for a group with shared goals to accomplish those goals without constant internal obstruction or sabotage. As long as the non-aggression principle is adhered to, tribalism is the ideal system.

    Of course, there are certain groups that are incapable of accepting this dynamic.

    Leftist ideology depends upon thought control and manipulation in order to remain relevant. Because their values are not based in logic or self examination, they don’t have the ability to win people over through compelling arguments; all they have are lies and force. When in power, they use the force of government. When out of power, they use the threat of the mob. If tribalism and the non-aggression principle were to thrive, the leftists in their current form would represent a failed group, and they would fade away.

    Globalists see themselves as social architects, and an architect cannot function if his building materials will not cooperate. Globalism is impotent without the ability to impose will and the ability to undermine practical divisions between ideological opposites. Tribalism in the name of sovereignty and free society is an impassable wall to globalization. Their only option is to utilize and exploit groups that are anti-liberty as a weapon against existing societies that still have some basis in sovereignty. This is much easier to do when anti-liberty groups are organized within those free systems, or, when they are imported into them. A strong, free people cannot be destroyed from without, they can only be destroyed from within.

    Social divisions are absolutely rational and healthy, and there is nothing “evil” or totalitarian about organizing only with people that share your values. The real evil comes from those that would suppress our values in the name of “harmonization” — there is no such thing.  Globalists and leftists argue for the adoption and toleration of all ideologies and principles as a means to peace, but what they really want in the end is the erasure of all the ideologies and principles they see as disagreeable in order to make way for their own.

  • Deported Mexicans Vow To Flood Into Canada – Immigrating To "The U.S. Is Over…Now It's Canada's Turn"

    Canada has been applauded in recent months for its decision to lift visa requirements for Mexican ‘tourists’ as of December 1st.  Rather than a visa, under Trudeau’s administration, Mexicans are now only required to have a so-called Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) which can be purchased online for CAD $7.

    As one media outlet praised, the move “provides a stark contrast to proposed policies from the US president-elect Donald Trump, who has said he will immediately deport between two and three million illegal immigrants and will build a wall along the US-Mexican border.”

    Not surprisingly, news of the rule changes in Canada quickly made the rounds in the migrant community with one recently-deported Mexican nationalist declaring that “For those without documents, I think (the United States) is over. Now it’s Canada’s turn.”

    Sure enough, in just the three months since Canada’s visa rules were relaxed, the number of Mexicans interested in “vacationing” in Canada has soared over 300%. Sure, who wouldn’t want to abandon the sweltering 70 degree heat in Mexico for a relaxing vacation in the frozen tundra of our northern neighbor in the dead of winter…it just makes sense. Per Reuters:

    Canadian government data shows a tripling of Mexicans seeking to travel to Canada in the three months since the visa requirement was shelved.

     

    It is not a firm indicator as many people could be genuine tourists. But tie it to a surge in calls and emails to immigration lawyers from recently arrived Mexicans looking for work permits, as well as the accounts of deportees like Rita and Mexicans already in Canada, and it suggests a new migration pattern may be emerging.

     

    Seven immigration lawyers, consultants and activists told Reuters that requests for legal advice from Mexicans who had entered Canada since Dec. 1 had roughly tripled compared with the same period in 2015-2016.

     

    Between December and late February, Canada has granted more than 61,500 eTAs (Electronic Travel Authorization forms) to Mexicans, about triple the number of quarterly tourist applications received in the year before the visa requirement was scrapped, official Canadian data shows. The true scale of Mexican immigration will only become fully apparent in June, when early arrivals on these eTAs are due to leave.

     

    Flight bookings from Mexico to Canada also swelled 90 percent in January and February versus the same period in 2016, according to travel analysis company ForwardKeys, which reviews all major travel agency bookings. It is unclear what percentage of those bookings were made by people looking to work illegally in Canada.

    Migrants

     

    Of course, the problem with relaxed immigration policies is not attracting additional ‘tourists’ to your country but getting them to go home once their invitation expires.  As one migrant who recently immigrated to Toronto told Reuters, once his time as a ‘tourist’ expires he’ll have no choice but to “stay and work illegally.”

    In 2015, Victor Avila, a 37-year-old architect from Oaxaca, returned home voluntarily from the United States after five years working illegally in Freehold, New Jersey. Shocked by the low wages in Mexico and traumatized by the local murder of his brother, he applied for an eTA.

     

    Avila arrived in Toronto a few weeks ago and found work in a restaurant. He was in the process of applying for a work visa, but said he would stay on illegally for a year if it wasn’t granted.

     

    “I think for many of us in Canada, there’s no other option but to stay and work illegally,” he said.

    Unfortunately, while Canada’s relaxed travel requirements were applauded as an enlightened, progressive alternative to Trump’s xenophobic, racist approach to immigration, under the surface, Canada’s policies function much like Trump’s proposals.  As immigration lawyers point out, while ‘vacationing’ in Canada is easy, getting a work visa can be nearly impossible and Mexicans with a criminal record are not welcome.

    Many Mexicans believe the eTA is all they need to set up in Canada, but in almost all cases they are wrong, immigration lawyers said. The eTA does not even guarantee entry.

     

    Even if they get past the airport, many low-skilled Mexicans hoping to work illegally are likely to be disappointed, lawyers said, noting that it’s difficult for those entering on tourist visas to get work permits without an employer’s sponsorship.

     

    Some Mexican visitors told Reuters that Canadian immigration officials went through their phones and asked tough questions designed to trip up those seeking to stay and work illegally. While some got through, others were sent home.

     

    Canada says those convicted of crimes, as well as gang members, are inadmissible, making it hard for criminally convicted Mexicans deported from the United States to enter.

    Just ask Alejandro Becerra’s how accommodating Canada’s open-minded, progressive immigration policies are..

    Alejandro Becerra’s experience is a cautionary tale for Mexicans dreaming of a new life in Canada.

     

    The 30-year-old former bankteller from Mexico City got a job offer to work in construction in Toronto and flew to the city on Feb. 7 on an eTA.

     

    Becerra told a border official at the airport that he was coming as a tourist and showed him his return flight. The official didn’t believe him and examined his phone, where he found messages discussing Becerra’s job in Toronto.

     

    Becerra spent the night in a detention center, and the next morning he was taken in handcuffs to a plane that would return him to Mexico.

    Perhaps Mexicans are learning that our ‘progressive’ northern neighbor isn’t so progressive after all…oh well, there’s always California.

  • LGBT Community Freaks After Restaurant Warns: "No Transgender Bathrooms…Don't Get Caught In The Wrong One"

    Before today, the Steak & Catfish Barn was just a popular fried food paradise enjoyed by Oklahoma City locals and whose only real claim to fame was being featured on an episode of “Man vs. Food” with Adam Richman.  But that all changed when the restaurant’s owner, Bob Warner, posted a sign clarifying his bathroom policy:

    “WE DO NOT HAVE A TRANSGENDER BATHROOM

     

    SO DON’T BE CAUGHT IN THE WRONG ONE

     

    THANK YOU, BOB”

    SC

     

    Despite having never actually visited the restaurant in question, Paula Schonauer, a transgender Oklahoma City resident, was outraged by Bob’s “implied threat.”  Per NBC:

    “I was disturbed,” Schonauer said. “It was really a let down.”

     

    She said the message is discriminatory and the last sentence scares her.

     

    “That sign has an implied threat and a threat that’s very real to me,” Schonauer said.

     

    “You’ve got this sign implying a threat of potential violence against somebody for going to pee. That’s not the Oklahoma standard. That’s not what it means to be American. That’s just wrong,” Troy Stevenson, with Freedom Oklahoma, said.

    Of course, the real story here is that the sign had been posted at the restaurant for 10 full months without an issue before NBC was tipped off…which, hardly sounds like the national crisis that our politicians have made it out to be.

    SCB

     

    Meanwhile, when confronted by NBC on the issue, Bob simply implied he, like about 99% of the rest of the population, couldn’t care less about the bathroom politics consuming 75% of liberal D.C. politicians’ time these days and was just trying to prevent anyone from getting roughed up by the “redneck guys” that frequent his fine establishment.

    Restaurant owner Bob Warner told NewsChannel 4 his sign is not a threat, just a warning.

     

    “We have a lot of redneck guys that come in here. Truck drivers and everything. They’re big husky guys and I said ‘man alive!’ If their wife or their little girl walked in that bathroom and a man followed them in there, I wouldn’t have a restaurant,” Warner said.

     

    He said the intent of his message is to protect his property and customers, including those who are transgender.

     

    “I don’t want to see nobody hurt,” Warner said.

    Apparently those “redneck guys” don’t subscribe to the notion that people get to casually choose their gender…that kind of backwards mentality is so six months ago.

  • Has The Deep State Begun Its Revenge On Trump?

    Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

    The Deep State is set to prick the largest bubble in human history today…

    The Deep State is the permanently entrenched “national security” bureaucracy – the top tier of the military, the CIA, FBI, NSA, etc. It also includes the Federal Reserve, the quintessential Establishment institution.

    They all hate President Trump. They did everything possible to stop him from taking office. None of it worked. They fired all of their bullets, but he still wouldn’t go down.

    Of course, the Deep State could still try to assassinate Trump. It’s obvious the possibility has crossed his mind. He’s taken the unusual step of supplementing his Secret Service protection with loyal private security.

    But for now, anyway, the Deep State’s next move is to pin the coming stock market collapse on Trump. He’s the perfect fall guy.

    When people think “Greater Depression,” they’ll think “Donald Trump.”

    Right now, the Federal Reserve is the Deep State’s weapon of choice.

    The economy has been on life support since the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed has pumped it up with unprecedented amounts of “stimulus.” This has created enormous distortions and misallocations of capital that need to be flushed.

    Think of the trillions of dollars in money printing programs, euphemistically called quantitative easing (QE) 1, 2, and 3. Meanwhile, with zero and even negative interest rates in many countries, rates are the lowest they’ve been in 5,000 years of recorded human history.

    On top of that, the too-big-to-fail banks are even bigger than they were in 2008. They have more derivatives, and they’re much more dangerous.

    If the Deep State wants to trigger a stock market collapse on par with 1929, it just has to pull the plug on the extraordinary life support measures it’s used since the last crisis.

    This outcome is already baked in the cake. It’s just a matter of when… and there’s a good chance “when” is today.


    Source: Ben Garrison

    In December 2015, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, from 0% to a mere 0.25%. It kept rates there until last December, when it raised them to 0.50%.

    The Fed also announced it would accelerate rate hikes throughout 2017 – three in total. It will probably announce these rate hikes during the seven remaining Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings scheduled for 2017.

    This means the Deep State could trigger its controlled demolition today.

    Yesterday's Fed rate hike (which will likely be the weakest period of economic growth for a rate-hike since 1980) could help prick the massive bubble in the stock and bond markets.

    Trump recently said:

    What happens if that interest rate goes up 2, 3, 4 points? We don’t have a country.

    In any case, I think some of this year’s rate hikes will be much bigger than the 0.25% most expect. The Fed could pull a series of 0.50% rate hikes… or go even bigger.

    Anything greater than the normal 0.25% tempo would shock the market—and seem designed to hurt Trump.

    Trump seems aware of the situation. He recently said, “They’re keeping the rates down so that everything else doesn’t go down.”

    He’s also said that “we have a very false economy” and the stock market is a “big, fat, ugly bubble.”

    During the campaign, Trump called Fed Chair Janet Yellen “highly political.” At that point, he said the Fed should raise interest rates but wouldn’t because of “political reasons.” (Raising rates before the election would have hurt Hillary Clinton.)

    Now, even a small rate increase is a lethal threat to the US budget. The US government currently needs over $400 billion from taxpayers just to pay the interest on its debt. Tax receipts are just over $2 trillion.

    If interest rates rise…

    • 1%, the government would need over $600 billion to pay the interest on its debt.

    • 2%, it would need over $800 billion.

    • 3%, it would need $1 trillion.

    • 4%, it would need over $1.2 trillion, or over half of what it currently snatches from taxpayers—again, just to pay the interest.

    Clearly, none of this is sustainable.

    The Deep State is planning moves during Trump’s first 100 days in office that could change everything in sudden and unexpected ways.

    *  *  *

    Doug Casey and I put together this time-sensitive video explaining how it could all go down. You must see this urgent video before the Establishment makes its next move. Click here to watch it now.

  • 1.4 Trillion Reasons Why Tomorrow's 'Quad Witch' Could Matter

    In 2015, options expirations mattered – stocks would tear higher into the event and like clockwork sink back lower after.

    2016 was not so obvious but the all-important 'quad-witch' expirations still had some bias.

    However, if JPMorgan's equity derivative strategists are right, tomorrow's 'quad-witch'  – with $1.4 trillion worth of S&P 500 notional set to expire – could lead to a vicious cycle higher in volatility going forward.

    It is notable that VIX has been entirely decoupled from stocks for over 6 weeks now…

     

    Right as Catalsyt Fund liquidation chatter began (forced buying due to the gamma in their options strategy – which is likely heavily used across many funds)…

     

    VIX Call volume relative to put volume has collapsed to pre-December op-ex…

     

    Which brings us to tomorrow's 'quad-witch' options expiration. As JPMorgan's equity derivatives group warns, on Friday, ~$1.4Tr notional of S&P 500 options expires.

    As the market drifted lower over the past roughly two weeks and option positions were rolled higher into/following Feb expiry, the gamma imbalance fell significantly and is now only moderately tilted toward calls (~$15Bn per 1% now vs. ~$50Bn into last month’s expiry).

    [NOTE – there is a huge pin around 2250 – puts and calls – which just happens to be around the level at which Catalyst's strategy started to implode]

    The gamma imbalance remained tilted toward calls throughout the past two weeks, and thus dealer hedging activity likely continued to depress market volatility.

    However, the majority (~70%) of the imbalance expires on Friday, likely leaving dealers close to flat post expiry (assuming spot roughly unchanged), and the gamma imbalance remains highly sensitive to spot moves near current levels and would be flat if the S&P 500 fell just ~1% (Figure 3).

    This suggests dealers could be taken short gamma relatively quickly on a selloff (particularly if it comes ahead of March expiry).

    In english, Friday's expiration could change options dealers' positions in a manner that could leave them more likely to feed into any uptick in stock market volatility going forward, and after tomorrow, dealers' positions in S&P 500  options will change so that any stock market selloff could quickly see dealers boosting volatility as they hedge their positions.

    Or even more simply put, the foot on the throat of volatility could well be lifted tomorrow… and positioning suggests any pain will quickly feed on itself.

  • McDonalds Tweets Trump: "You Are A Disgusting Excuse Of A President, Also You Have Tiny Hands"

    Update: It appears McDonalds needed Twitter to tell Robert Gibbs and the company’s Corporate relations team that their account had been “compromised.”

    //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And so, as MCD has washed its hands of the rogue tweet and blamed “compromising” actors, the company has generated substantial media buzz… the only question is whether the buzz will lead to more or less sales.

    *  *  *

     

    One day after Twitter stock tumbled after a pervasive hack showed just how vulnerable the underperforming social network (where 15% of total users appear to be bots) remains, moments ago McDonalds tweeted to president Trump, in what appears to be the latest hack of a prominent account, that “You are actually a disgusting excuse of a President and we would love to have @BarackObama back, also you have tiny hands.”

    The confrontational tweet was even pinned for a moment:

    We assume, of course, that this is a hack. If not, the media is about to have a field day with the latest member of the “resistance.”

    Of course, it could have been just a rogue employee who is about to join the “unemployed resistance.”

    It is worth noting that Trump was once in a commercial for the fast food giant, and has posted images eating McDonald’s food on his social media accounts during his campaign.

    Of course, it may not have been a “rogue employee” at all: former Obama press secretary Robert Gibbs is now the executive vice president and global chief communications officer at McDonald’s. To wit:

    June 09, 2015 McDonald’s Corporation today announced the appointments of Robert Gibbs as Executive Vice President, Global Chief Communications Officer and Silvia Lagnado as Executive Vice President, Global Chief Marketing Officer. Both will report to McDonald’s President and CEO Steve Easterbrook.

     

    In his new role, Gibbs will lead McDonald’s corporate relations group, which manages internal and external communications and government and public affairs. He will lead McDonald’s in communicating clear, coordinated messages to internal and external constituencies, enhancing the brand and supporting corporate strategies. 

     

    Gibbs joins McDonald’s from The Incite Agency, a strategic communications advisory firm he co-founded in 2013. Prior to that he held several senior advisory roles in the White House, serving as President Barack Obama’s press secretary during his first term, then as senior campaign advisor during his re-election campaign.

    Which means he also has access to the company’s twitter account…

    * * *

    Update: the tweet has since been deleted although it does not appear that McDonalds was actually hacked as the account continues its back and forth with other customers in a far more calm and collected manner.

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Today’s News 16th March 2017

  • This Map Shows US States Renamed For Countries With Similar GDPs

    The U.S. economy is so big that all of the individual states are comparable to entire countries

     

     

     

    As Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes, not surprisingly – big states like California, New York, and Texas are very similar in size to other formidable economies like France, South Korea, and Canada.

    Perhaps even more interesting, however, is that even small states are similar to the size of countries.

    Wisconsin is about the size of Malaysia, and Louisiana is comparable to the Philippines. Even Vermont, a state with a population of 626,000 people and the smallest state economy, is approximately the size of Bahrain.

    It’s pretty incredible to think about the United States this way – and it helps put the economic power of the full country in real context.

  • On June 1st The Deep State Will Move To Overthrow Trump

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    On Wednesday, March 15, 2017 the U.S. government once again hit its debt ceiling. In short, this means that until Congress raises the ceiling, the government will be unable to borrow more money. If you remember the last time this happened, there were weeks of posturing by Republicans and Democrats while some government services started shutting down. After much deliberation and negotiation the debt ceiling was eventually raised and collapse was avoided.

    But this time around we may see a very different set of events play out. If it isn’t clear to you just yet, President Trump is under attack from all sides. Democrats, the media and even members of his own Party want to see him fail. But perhaps more importantly, it is the shadow operators known as “The Deep State” who may take this opportunity to lay the blame for decades of machinations at Trump’s feet.

    These shadow forces have been at work manipulating everything from the global economy to the political affairs of sovereign nations.

    While March 15th is the day we hit our debt ceiling, June 1st, 2017 is the real date to watch. That’s the day the Deep State may finally pull the trigger:

    And what better way to do that then to collapse the economy?

     

    Establishment Republicans and Democrats hate trump… many want to see him fail… even if it means a real systematic crisis for the nation.. in fact, many will even see this as a crisis to get rid of the President… to blame him for the last 30 years of mismanaging the country’s finances and be able to rebuke the voters who elected the President with a national mess… Trump and his supporters will be blamed and take the fall… this is the secret plan

    The following report from Wealth Research Group explains how and why it will all go down:

    Both parties have continually paid for government services and programs through debt…

     

    By June 1st, 2017 the Treasury Department will have exhausted ways to get creative with paying its bills and without new debt it will be forced to default…

     

    Most Americans aren’t aware at all that their entire way of life solely rests on the willingness of foreign governments to lend money to their government, otherwise the entire Washington cash burning machine will come tumbling down by the following morning… It all looks so safe with their respectable government buildings and their fancy suits, but in truth the entire economic machine is fragile like glass.

     

    From March 15th to June 1st is the ultimate political grandstand event… and this time Republicans and Democrats both have secret agendas to allow a real crisis to happen… using it to overthrow a populist uprising and the President who doesn’t bow to the status quo.

  • Relax, Global Citizen; The CIA Is Benign & Benevolent

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via Asia Times,

    The massive WikiLeaks Vault 7 release is an extremely important public service. It’s hard to find anyone not concerned by a secret CIA hacking program targeting virtually the whole planet – using malware capable of bypassing encryption protection on any device from iOS to Android, and from Windows to Samsung TVs.

    In a series of tweets, Edward Snowden confirmed the CIA program and said code names in the documents are real; that they could only be known by a “cleared insider;” the FBI and CIA knew all about the digital loopholes, but kept them open to spy; and that the leaks provided the “first public evidence” that the US government secretly paid to keep US software unsafe.

    If that’s not serious enough, WikiLeaks alleges that “the CIA has lost control of the majority of its hacking arsenal;” several hundred million lines of code — more than what is used to run Facebook.

    Someone among the former US government hackers and contractors ended up leaking portions of the CIA archive (Snowden II?). WikiLeaks also stressed how the CIA had created, in effect, its “own NSA” – maximum unaccountability included.

    Even though millions already knew – without the technical details – that they were being spied upon by their iPhone or their 4K Samsung, the Vault 7 revelations are far more relevant – and practical – to the average citizen than the 24/7 hysteria fingering President Trump as a Putin puppet. Intel sources are volunteering the – still unexplored – Vault 7 treasure trove is more crucial than what Snowden himself revealed.

    And still, vast corporate media sectors embedded with the neocon/neoliberal galaxy are spinning that Vault 7 benefits Trump by changing the subject from alleged Russian hacking interference in the US elections and possible Obama administration-ordered hacks of Team Trump’s communications.

    So, if anyone hasn’t got the message, the song remains the same.

    • WikiLeaks + Snowden + Russia + Trump = the bad guys.
    • CIA deploying its own NSA around the world = the good guys.

    After all, CIA spokesman Jonathan Liu duly issued a non-denial denial.

    Loony mainstream factions are even advancing that “the Russians” leaked the CIA info to WikiLeaks, thus fueling more suspicion that Russia will interfere in upcoming French and German elections.

    May I have an Orwellian iPhone, please?

    As we’re mired deep in an Orwellian total screen environment, already conceptualized by Baudrillard in the go-go 1980s, nothing so trivial as the technical proof we’re all being spied upon could alter the (im)balance. The US is already ravaged by a vicious sociopolitical war – and no “threat” to established narratives allows for nuance.

    The implication is that, as it stands, there won’t be a US-Russia reset anytime soon – despite hosting invitations from Iceland, Finland or Slovenia; the neocon/neoliberal galaxy nestled in powerful deep state factions will do their best to deny it.

    It hardly matters that Trump absolutely does not want war: his entire domestic US economy remix could not possibly allow it. The Pentagon now is essentially an extended special ops unit: it cannot possibly fight a land war (Iran? North Korea? Ukraine?)

    Russia, on the other hand, would be ready for war if needs be. The S-500 missile defense system is being deployed: some analysts (not the Ministry of Defense) are sure it’s already protecting the whole Russian landmass. China, by 2021, will have more than 1,000 very mobile warheads, or hidden in those submarines lounging in Hainan. By that time, both Iran and Pakistan will be deep into a strategic defense network with Russia-China, via the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, shielded with their own S-400 and S-500 systems.

    Putin is not playing chess. He’s playing Go — and if we look at the board, reality is indeed painful.

    Moscow is all but deciding the practical future of Syria, in Astana. Russia virtually wrote the Minsk II agreements, routinely broken by Kiev. Crimea as part of Russia is a fait accompli. Novorossiya for all practical purposes is already a totally autonomous region, with the economy working in rubles. Erdogan owes his imminent regime change in reverse – a presidential sultanate? – to Putin, as Russia warned him about the military coup hours in advance, according to several Russian media sources. Moscow protected Iran’s energy industry during the hardcore OPEC negotiations. Putin all but designed the Russia-China strategic partnership.

    Beijing has managed to convince Moscow that One Belt, One Road and the Eurasia Economic Union should be connected, merged and tackled as a win-win Eurasia integration process. If Russia eventually loses economic preeminence across the Central Asian “stans,” it maintains its paramount military/security status.

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov never ceases to stress that “our relations with China are at their best level ever in our two countries’ history.”

    Add to it a geo-economic gambit; hints of key factions of European business elites getting ready to hitch themselves to China’s growing – slowly but surely – monetary/financial clout, linked to Beijing’s imperative of preventing a collapse of global supply chains. Xi Jinping’s “inclusive globalization,” announced in Davos, sounds more and more like a reality in the making.

    In contrast to reality, where China-Russia expand their strategies without exceptionalist illusions, 24/7 neocon/neoliberal hysteria offers a constant barrage of childish, pathetic eruptions. As the self-delusion school of foreign policy refuses to admit Moscow will not sell out China and Iran for a deal with Washington, the last refuge of the scoundrels is cognitive dissonance; fear of Russia incited to cold war 2.0 heights.

    So, relax, global citizen; the CIA is benign and benevolent, even when they’re watching you. You have nothing to fear but fear itself – and its name is Russia.

  • Bank Of Japan Leaves Policy, Economic Outlook Unchanged

    Confirming the expectations of all 41 economists, The Bank of Japan changed absolutely nothing about its monetary policy tonight following The Fed's 3rd rate hike in 11 years. The BOJ said in a statement that it would keep the two key rates at current levels, maintain the pace of its asset purchases, and did not change its economic outlook.

    • The BOJ maintained its short-term policy rate on some bank reserves at -0.1 percent and…
    • left its target for 10-year government bond yields at around 0 percent.
    • It kept the pace of its asset purchases unchanged at about 80 trillion yen ($700 billion) annually.

    As Bloomberg reports, with the economy slowly improving and bond yields under control, the BOJ is in position to hold steady for now. But with the Fed rate hike putting upward pressure on yields globally, some economists are looking for signs the BOJ may have to raise its rate targets, particularly if inflation begins to take hold in Japan. “There’s no reason for the BOJ to act now," Hiroshi Ugai, a former BOJ official and chief Japan economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said before Thursday’s decision. “The bank will take the U.S. rate hike as good news. What I’m looking for now is any hint of its willingness to raise rates in the future."

    For now the reaction is muted and confused (with USDJPY rising – weaker Yen – and stocks up marginally)…

    "The BOJ can enjoy smooth sailing for now,” said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at SMBC Friend Securities.

    But the policy divergence will make it more challenging for the BOJ to maintain its target for 10-year government bond yields, and some investors are already speculating that it will have little choice but to raise that target as global yields rise and inflation inches up at home. Kuroda’s comments on this and possible tapering of asset purchases will be scrutinized.

    Eleven of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg said they expected the BOJ to raise its target rate this year, while 25 predicted the BOJ would cut the pace of its debt buying or stop stating its target for annual purchases.

    Kuroda and Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso said last month that it is too early to consider raising rates because inflation remains far from the BOJ’s 2 percent target, underscoring a determination not to repeat the mistake of prematurely tightening seen in 2000 and 2006.

    Some BOJ officials are considering whether to give the market further guidance on interest rates once inflation begins picking up, according to people familiar with matter.

    “It’s way too early for the BOJ to consider any move,” said Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “They must be hoping this favorable conditions to continue but I don’t think the road to the price target will be all that smooth.”

    However, it is notable that there are some risks that The BoJ point out that The Fed seems happy to ignore (as Bloomberg's Colin Simpson notes):

    The BOJ doesn't seem to be buying the global reflation story. Perhaps they can see a scenario where the base effect of higher oil prices washes through and the yen starts to creep higher again. Either way, they seem subdued.

     

    Timely warning from the BOJ statement following the Fed's rate hike: "Risks to the outlook include the following: developments in the U.S. economy and the impact of its monetary policy on global markets."

  • Mexico's Presidential Frontrunner Blasts Trump's "Neofascism"; Says "Can't Wait To Redo NAFTA"

    Last month we wrote about “Mexico’s Fiery, Trump-Like Populist Who Looks Increasingly Likely To Win The Presidency In 2018.”  As we noted before, Pena Nieto’s PRI party, which has held power for most of Mexico’s modern history, has seen its popularity eroded in recent months due to a series of corruption scandals, surging gasoline prices and a perception among Mexican voters that Pena Nieto himself has been too soft in combatting an aggressive Trump Presidency.

    But, the growing populist sentiment that is sweeping Mexico and forcing Pena Nieto’s ratings to all-time lows, is the same sentiment that has vaulted Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to the top of the list of likely presidential candidates to be elected in 2018.  Staying true to his reputation, Lopez Obrador spent the better part of today blasting the Trump administration in a series of interviews. 

    In fact, speaking at the Washington Press Club earlier, Lopez Obrador said that the poor distribution of income and bad tax policies, not immigrants, were the cause of America’s economic distress.  Per The Hill:

    “President Trump’s approach of blaming migrants for the problems of the United States has been excessive. We will not allow that, you can’t implement a campaign of hate against Mexicans because that is neofascism,” he said.

     

    Lopez Obrador was in town to present a complaint against Trump’s executive orders on immigration at the Interamerican Commission on Human Rights (IACHR).

     

    “We are denouncing that Secretary [of Homeland Security John] Kelly’s executive measures affect not only Mexicans, but migrants from all over the world,” said Netzaí Sandoval, the lawyer who wrote the claim.

    Obrador

     

    Meanwhile, Lopez Obrador vowed to take a more “firm” approach in re-negotiating the NAFTA free trade agreement with the Trump administration saying that while Nafta “didn’t hurt” Mexico’s economy “it is also not our salvation.”  That said, he went on to warn that any cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico would be short lived if the Trump administration didn’t change it’s rhetoric on migrants.

    Lopez Obrador said that once in power, he would change the nature of the bilateral relationship “without disrespecting anyone, but with firmness.”

     

    He said it is “very probable” that he will win the upcoming election, scheduled for July 2018.

     

    “We will convince the government of the United States and Trump that the best thing is a good deal, an understanding based on cooperation for development,” he said.

     

    But Lopez Obrador warned the overlap between his administration and Trump’s would be short-lived if the Trump administration did not change its tune on migrants.

    As we pointed out earlier this morning, Peter Navarro, Trump’s top trade advisor, seemingly took a slightly less combative stance on NAFTA and was quoted by Bloomberg as saying he wants the US, Canada and Mexico to form a trade “powerhouse”, supposedly one which is quite different from the existing “NAFTA” trade arrangement. 

    The Trump administration is re-examining a critical component of the free trade pact: the rules of origin, which dictate what percentage of a product must be manufactured in the U.S. for it to carry a Made in America label, Navarro said.

     

    “We have a tremendous opportunity, with Mexico in particular, to use higher rules of origin to develop a mutually beneficial regional powerhouse where workers and manufacturers on both sides of the border will benefit enormously,” said Navarro. “It’s just as much in their interests as it is in our interests to increase the rules of origin.”

     

    For example, under the current agreement, 62.5 percent of the total value of cars sold in North America must originate in the U.S., Canada or Mexico to avoid import tariffs. The U.S. wants to raise that threshold, making it harder for parts from other countries to enter the supply chain.

    Since the comment appeared less combative than some more aggressive trade-related statements out of the administration, the market took them in stride and sent both the Canadian Loonie and the Mexican Peso to session highs.

     

    Finally, here’s is Bloomberg’s interview with the so-called ‘Trump of Mexico’.

  • What You Do On Your Cell Phone Could Come Back To Haunt You

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    As far as Big Brother is concerned, nothing that you do on your cell phone is ever private.  And if the government really wants to see what is on your cell phone, they are going to get that information one way or another, even if that means resorting to physical violence.   On Monday, NBC News provided us with yet another glaring example of how the United States is being transformed into a Big Brother police state.  On January 1st, Akram Shibly and Kelly McCormick from Buffalo, New York were coming back home from a trip to Toronto, and they didn’t anticipate any unusual problems when they got to the border.  Unfortunately for them, U.S. Customs & Border Protection agents decided to take their cell phones, demanded their passwords, and kept them in custody for the next two hours as they searched for anything that might be incriminating on those phones.

    You might be thinking that sounds like it should be illegal, and you would be correct, but sadly federal courts have ruled that our constitutional rights do not apply to border searches.  So authorities use this legal loophole to do pretty much anything they want at the border.

    If that young couple from Buffalo would have had something illegal on their phones, they could have been immediately arrested and put in prison.

    And we haven’t even gotten to the worst part of the story yet.  Just a few days later Akram Shibly and Kelly McCormick took another trip to Canada, and this time border agents physically assaulted Akram when he did not immediately turn over his phone.  The following comes from NBC News

    Three days later, they returned from another trip to Canada and were stopped again by CBP.

     

    “One of the officers calls out to me and says, ‘Hey, give me your phone,'” recalled Shibly. “And I said, ‘No, because I already went through this.'”

     

    The officer asked a second time.

     

    Within seconds, he was surrounded: one man held his legs, another squeezed his throat from behind. A third reached into his pocket, pulling out his phone. McCormick watched her boyfriend’s face turn red as the officer’s chokehold tightened.

    Is this still America?

    I can’t believe that this is what the United States has become.  When I was young I remember reading about this sort of thing in Nazi Germany, the USSR and Communist China, but I never imagined that it would happen here.  For years I have been warning about this growing “Big Brother police state control grid”, and I wish that more Americans would realize how evil all of this government surveillance truly is.

    You can watch an interview where this couple from Buffalo talks to NBC News about this recent incident at the border right here

    It is so disgusting that this is how we are treating law abiding people when countless numbers of drug dealers and gang members are pouring across unprotected sections of our border every single day.

    Unfortunately, cell phone searches at the border appear to be rising at an exponential rate.  According to NBC News, more cell phone searches were conducted at the border during the month of February 2017 than in the entire year of 2015…

    Data provided by the Department of Homeland Security shows that searches of cellphones by border agents has exploded, growing fivefold in just one year, from fewer than 5,000 in 2015 to nearly 25,000 in 2016.

     

    According to DHS officials, 2017 will be a blockbuster year. Five-thousand devices were searched in February alone, more than in all of 2015.

    And of course it isn’t just searches at the border that you need to be concerned about.

    Not too long ago, it was being reported that the CIA has helped the Justice Department with technology that allows law enforcement officials to scan “data from thousands of U.S. cellphones at a time” from the safety of a plane…

    The Central Intelligence Agency played a crucial role in helping the Justice Department develop technology that scans data from thousands of U.S. cellphones at a time, part of a secret high-tech alliance between the spy agency and domestic law enforcement, according to people familiar with the work.

     

    The CIA and the U.S. Marshals Service, an agency of the Justice Department, developed technology to locate specific cellphones in the U.S. through an airborne device that mimics a cellphone tower, these people said.

    So the next time a strange plane flies over your house, this may be what is happening.

    Here is more on this disturbing new technology

    The program operates specially equipped planes that fly from five U.S. cities, with a flying range covering most of the U.S. population. Planes are equipped with devices—some past versions were dubbed “dirtboxes” by law-enforcement officials—that trick cellphones into reporting their unique registration information.

    I have a feeling that if this program was ever challenged in court that it would be ruled unconstitutional, so let’s hope that happens as soon as possible.

    But then again, the NSA has been collecting and storing all forms of electronic communication for years and nothing is being done about.  We have even had a 36-year veteran of the NSA named William Binney come out and publicly admit that all of our phone conversations “are being monitored and stored” and still nothing is done to stop it.

    So don’t do anything on your cell phone that you wouldn’t want the government to see, because someday they could use it to nail you.

    Of course we also need to use discretion regarding the things that we know the public will be able to see.  When you post something to Facebook or Twitter, you may think that it is harmless, but it could end up costing you big time.  In fact, I just came across an article about how a number of pastors have actually been fired because of what is on their social media accounts

    “It’s not fair I lost my job,” the pastor told me.

     

    “My church members post a lot worse things than I do on social media. It’s a double standard.”

     

    He’s right. It is a double standard. But it’s reality. And, with greater frequency, more pastors and church staff are losing their jobs because of what they post, particularly on Facebook and Twitter and, to some extent, their blogs.

     

    By the way, churches will not always tell the pastor the specific reason for the firing. But, once we begin to infuriate our church members with our posts, many will find a myriad of reasons to give us the boot.

    Like the title to this article says, what you do on your cell phone could come back to haunt you.

    For many Americans, cell phones have become an essential part of modern life, but the truth is that those little electronic devices can also destroy our lives if we are not careful.

    So if you are going to use them, use them wisely, because people are watching.

  • Intelligence Sources Reveal: Obama Used British Agents For Trump Wire Tap Surveillance

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    While President Obama has vehemently denied issuing direct orders to the Justice Department or other domestic agencies to monitor President Trump during the 2016 election campaign, it is common knowledge that the National Security Agency has the ability to access video and audio from any number of devices in real time. In fact, according to Edward Snowden and documented in the recently released Snowden motion picture, U.S. spy agencies can simply flip a switch to watch or listen in on anything going on in a particular room by turning on a particular device’s cameras and microphones.

    Here’s how it works:

    The technology is real, but according to legal scholars, would have been illegal to use on Donald Trump or his surrogates without a warrant or probable cause indicating links to terrorist organizations.

    But while domestic spy agencies like the NSA and CIA can’t actively monitor a citizen on U.S. soil, there is a very convenient work-around that has been used for over a decade to accomplish this task without technically breaking the law.

    According to three intelligence sources who spoke with Judge Napolitano, this is exactly what President Obama did to then-candidate Donald Trump.

    Steve Watson explains:

    Three separate intelligence sources believe that former President Obama veered ‘outside the chain of command’ and employed British surveillance agents to conduct surveillance on Donald Trump’s team prior to the election, according to a legal analyst.

     

    Judge Andrew Napolitano revealed on ‘Fox & Friends’ this morning that the sources spilled the details to him as the controversial case continues to dominate headlines.

     

    Three intelligence sources have informed Fox News that President Obama went outside the chain of command,” Napolitano said. “He didn’t use the NSA, he didn’t use the CIA, he didn’t use the FBI, and he didn’t use the Department of Justice.”

     

    “He used GCHQ.” Napolitano explained.

     

    “What the heck is GCHQ? That’s the initials for the British spying agency. They have 24/7 access to the NSA database.” The Judge explained.

     

    Napolitano noted that this was done to secure plausible deniability. In other words, even if the Obama administration did spy on Trump, there may never be a way to prove it.

     

    “So by simply having two people go to them saying, ‘President Obama needs transcripts of conversations involving candidate Trump, conversations involving president-elect Trump,’ he’s able to get it, and there’s no American fingerprints on this. ”Napolitano added.

    Video:

    //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  • Comet Pizza Gunman To Plead Guilty In Plea Deal With U.S. Attorney

    Back in early December, the Pizzagate situation took a bizarre turn for the worse when a gunman, since identified as 28-year-old North Carolina resident Edgar Welch, stormed the Comet Ping Pong pizza restaurant with a .38-caliber Colt revolver and an AR-15 in search of an alleged pedophilia ring thought to be tied to various members of Hillary’s inner circle.  After failing to find the evidence he sought, but not before letting off a couple of rounds inside the pizza joint in the process, Welch was arrested by Washington D.C. police.

    After originally pleading not guilty on December 16th to a federal charge of interstate transportation of a firearm and ammunition and to two D.C. offenses: assault with a dangerous weapon and possessing a firearm during the commission of a crime of violence, Welch has now decided to enter into a plea deal with the U.S. Attorney’s office.  Per the Washington Post:

    Terms of the plea offer to Edgar Maddison Welch, 28, of Salisbury, N.C., were not disclosed. The U.S. attorney’s office for the District and Welch’s federal defender said they had agreed on a “plea in principle,” but declined to comment further at a previously scheduled court appearance after a deadline to accept the deal or face trial expired Monday.

     

    U.S. District Judge Ketanji B. Jackson ordered the parties to submit final terms to her by Monday and set a March 24 plea agreement hearing.

    Comet

     

    Under a plea deal, Welch would likely plead guilty to fewer or lesser charges, in return for prosecutors agreeing to a far shorter recommended sentence subject to federal guidelines that factor in variables such as a defendant’s criminal history, cooperation and other specific facts of the case.

    In charging documents police said that Welch anticipated his raid of Comet Ping Pong could result in violence and tried to recruit two ­co-conspirators, citing text and calling records.

    “Raiding a pedo ring, possible [sic] sacrificing the lives of a few for the lives of many,” Welch texted a friend two days before he drove to Washington in a Toyota Prius, according to federal prosecutors. The text continued: “Standing up against a corrupt system that kidnaps, tortures and rapes ­babies and children in our own backyard.”

    * * *

    For those who missed it, here is our note on Welch’s arrest back in December.

    Pizzagate took a turn for the even more bizarre on Sunday, as a man with an assault rifle walked into Comet Ping Pong to “self-investigate” the Baltimore, Maryland, pizza parlor that internet conspiracy theorists say is at the center of an international child sex ring run by prominent Democrats. 28-year-old Edgar Maddison Welch, of Salisbury, N.C., reportedly fired the rifle at least once inside the restaurant but no one was injured.

    As HeatSt.com reports, Washington, D.C., police arrested the man Sunday afternoon, after restaurant employees saw a man, described as being in his early 20s and carrying an “assault rifle,” work his way through the dining room and then attempt to enter the staff work area at the back of the building.

    Restaurant workers acted quickly, getting staff and patrons—including a number of children—to safety and dialing 911. Authorities were quick to respond. They subdued and arrested the man and secured the restaurant. No one was injured.

     The Washington Post noted that the incident caused panic, with several businesses going into lockdown as police swarmed the neighborhood after receiving the call shortly before 3 p.m.

    Police said 28-year-old Edgar Maddison Welch, of Salisbury, N.C., walked in the front door of Comet Ping Pong and pointed a firearm in the direction of a restaurant employee. The employee was able to flee and notify police. Police said Welch proceeded to discharge the rifle inside the restaurant.

     

    The man told police he had come to the restaurant to “self-investigate” the election-related conspiracy theory.

     

    Police said in addition to the assault rifle, they also recovered two firearms inside the restaurant; an additional weapon was recovered in Welch’s car. Bomb-sniffing dogs and at least one armored vehicle were present at the scene.

     

    He has been charged with assault with a dangerous weapon.

    DC Police Press Release on the arrest…

    One can’t help but wonder, as Congress considers a bill “to counter active measures by the Russian Federation to exert covert influence,” whether this is yet another false flag to raise awareness of what is a possible outcome of “fake news”?

  • China Unexpectedly Tightens Monetary Policy

    Following The Fed’s 3rd rate hike in 11 years, the PBOC decided, unexpectedly, to follow in the Fed’s footsteps, and tighten conditions by raising the interest rates on its open-market operations, the 7-, 14-, and 28-day reverse-repos, by 10bps each, to 2.45%, 2.6% and 2.75% respectively.

    That followed an increase of 10 basis points at the beginning of February, which in turn was the first increase in the 28-day contracts since 2015 and since 2013 for the other two tenors.

    One month ago, the PBOC also – for the first time ever – increased the rate on the PBOC’s Medium-Term Lending Facility, or MLF. It did it again on Thursday, when the PBOC conducted CNY303 billion in 6-month and 1-year MLF, where the interest rose by 10bps, from 2.95% to 3.05%, and from 3.1% to 3.2%, respectively.

    What to make of this tightening? According to the PBOC nothing: the Central bank said there was “no need to over-interpret monetary tools action” and added that higher open market operation interest rates don’t mean benchmark interest rates are increasing.

    Except they are, of course, especially since like in western nations, increasingly it is narrowly confined liquidity conduits that matter instead of broad, shotgun market rates.

    Naturally, this was not exactly great news for those hoping for a renewed credit impulse to lift the tumbling GDP expectations of the world in Q2. For now the reaction is minimal with Yuan leaking lower, erasing the gains against a weaker post-Fed dollar.

    China bond futures took a hit.

    As Bloomberg’s Kyoungwha Kim reports, the PBOC is swift enough to raise the repo rates but will stop short of raising the key interest rate, following the Fed. The huge wall of debt set to mature over the next two years will likely keep the PBOC from raising the key rate even as the Fed hikes away. It will probably continue to use higher money-market rates to discourage leverage. While Chinese money market rates and sovereign yields are still showing declines due to delayed prices, traders say they are seeing reaction in the interbank market already.

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Today’s News 15th March 2017

  • New European Regulations Set To Crush Equity Research Budgets By $300 Million

    Literally no one knows the true ‘value’ of equity research, not even the investment banks that are selling it.  Up until now, equity research has been treated as a ‘freebie’ given away to institutional clients in return for trading commissions but that is all about to change thanks to the European Union’s MiFID II regulations, which require asset managers to separate trading commissions from investment-research payments.

    Unfortunately, at least for the Investment Banks of the world, while the cost of generating equity research may be substantial, it turns out that the true ‘value’, as defined by institutional clients’ maximum willingness to pay for reports, may be much less.  Which is shocking given the creativity required to constantly generate new variations of daily reports politely suggesting that you “Buy The Fucking Dip.”

    As Bloomberg notes today, the regulatory change slated to take effect next January could cost the I-banks $300 million in fees.

    Asset-managers in Europe and the U.S. will probably cut more than $300 million from research budgets in anticipation of regulations aimed at rooting out conflicts of interest in the market for investment information.

     

    That’s according to a survey of 99 fund managers and traders conducted by consulting firm Greenwich Associates, which assessed the shake-up coming to the multi billion-dollar market for investment research over the next year.

     

    The European Union’s MiFID II regulations, which require asset managers to separate trading commissions from investment-research payments, will have a “clearly negative” impact on the amount of commission money that is spent on research and advisory services, according to the Stamford, Connecticut-based firm’s findings released Tuesday. While the budget cuts will be “relatively modest” at individual asset-managers, research providers across the board fear the new law will prompt “a substantial decrease” in buy-side spending.

    Equity Research

     

    The findings equate to a 7% drop in overall commission spend for European institutions and a 5% drop in the U.S.. Those reductions would contribute to a nearly $200 million decrease in U.S. research commission spend and a decrease of more than 100 million euros in Europe.

    While the rules are technically only applicable within the confines of the European Union, U.S. asset managers with substantial business in the U.K. and Europe are also preparing for the changes and are choosing to adopt global standards.  Meanwhile, more than half of U.S. survey participants and almost three quarters in Europe expect the rules to result in a slimming of their counterparty list for research and advisory services. Moreover, 40% of U.S. respondents and more than 50% of European ones expect to limit the number of brokers they trade with.

    Equity Research

     

    In response to the changing regulatory environment, Macquarie recently launched a new a la carte product, called “Macquarie Dimension” that allows institutional clients to purchase research reports, managements meetings, analyst calls, etc. on a pay-as-you-go basis.  Per Bloomberg:

    Macquarie Group Ltd. is trying a new way to charge clients for research: unbundling it.

     

    The Australian bank introduced a service this year that helps solve two problems facing asset managers: they have to trade a lot before getting access to research from big brokers; and regulations taking effect next year will prohibit that kind of arrangement. The new a la carte system, called “Macquarie Dimension,” provides access to research reports, corporate meetings and phone calls with analysts on a pay-as-you-go basis alongside its usual equity-research offerings.

     

    The move is part of a broader trend where specialized financial companies are struggling to find ways to pay for work their clients used to fund with trading piggybacks. The new approach meets Macquarie’s goal of servicing more accounts and monetizing its content, Peter Bentley, managing director at Macquarie Dimension, said in an interview last week at Bloomberg’s New York headquarters.

     

    Bentley sees opportunity in what he calls “regulatory tailwinds” and a chance to service under-appreciated clients. Macquarie isn’t “trying to be particularly disruptive about how people consume research, but we are trying to be innovative in how to commercialize it,” he said.

    Of course, as we said before, almost any amount of money seems, at least to us, to be too much to have the same people give you the same advice over and over again, namely “buy more stocks, faster.”  There, we just summarized 90% of all equity research that will ever be written for the rest of history in 4 simple words and completely free of charge.  You’re welcome.

  • After Destroying Cambodia, The US Wants The Country To Repay It For The Bombs They Dropped

    Authored by Nika Knight via TheAntiMedia.org,

    Cambodians are responding with outrage to the U.S. government’s demand that the country repay a nearly 50-year-old loan to Cambodia’s brutal Lon Nol government, which came to power through a U.S.-backed coup and spent much of its foreign funds purchasing arms to kill its own citizens, according to Cambodia’s current prime minister Hun Sen.

    While the U.S. was backing the Lon Nol government, it was also strafing the Cambodian countryside with bombs—a carpet-bombing campaign that would eventually see over 500,000 tons of explosives dropped on the small Asian country, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians and leaving a legacy of unexploded ordnances.

    “[The U.S.] dropped bombs on our heads and then they ask us to repay. When we do not repay, they tell the IMF [International Monetary Fund] not to lend us money,” Hun Sen said at an Asia-Pacific regional conference earlier this month.

     

    “At the same time the U.S. was giving weapons to Lon Nol, it was bombing the Cambodian countryside into oblivion and creating millions of refugees fleeing into Phnom Penh and destroying all political fabric and civil life in the country,” former Australian ambassador to Cambodia Tony Kevin told Australia’s ABC.

     

    “And all of this was simply to stop the supplies coming down to South Vietnam, as it was then, from the north,” Kevin added. “So the United States created a desert in Cambodia in those years, and Americans know this.”

    Hun Sen has argued that the U.S. has no right to demand repayment of its “blood-stained” funds.

    “Cambodia does not owe even a brass farthing to the U.S. for help in destroying its people, its wild animals, its rice fields, and forest cover,” wrote former Reuters correspondent James Pringle for The Cambodia Daily.

    In fact, during his tenure as prime minister Hun Sen has asked the U.S. to drop the “dirty debt” several times, but American leaders have refused.

    “[The] U.S. would not drop it. It would have been so easy to forgive the repayment, it would have been easy to refinance it for education like they did in Vietnam,” the reporter Elizabeth Becker, who covered the Cambodian genocide in the 1970s, told Al Jazeera.

    “The U.S. intervention in Cambodia was easily the most controversial that we had in that era,” Becker said. “[The U.S.] dragged Cambodia into the Vietnam War for hopes that by expanding it they could win, the complications now are that even 50 years later, the Khmer Rouge legacy is horrible.”

    “The U.S. owes Cambodia much more in war debts that can be repaid in cash,” Becker argued to The Cambodia Daily.

  • Savage on Alex Jones: ‘We Are in a Civil War Now’

    The good Doctor was on Alex Jones for 45 mins today — discussing a variety of topics.

    Some of the notable moments were:

    We’re in a civil war with the left
    The left in the GOP are part of the democratic party
    How the family structure was targeted by Marx and now by the left
    Soros, Pelosi, Maxine Waters
    Healthcare
    Taxes
    Cuba and Castro
    War
    His dinner with Trump and his sit down with him over a large bowl of iced cream
    He hinted at a class action lawsuit against some of radios ad agencies


    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

     

  • Ruled By Thieves: One Week In The Life Of The American Kleptocracy

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “The first and most important thing to understand about politics is this: forget Right, Left, Center, socialism, fascism, or democracy. Every government that exists — or ever existed, or ever will exist — is a kleptocracy, meaning ‘rule by thieves.’ Competing ideologies merely provide different excuses to separate the Productive Class from what they produce. If the taxpayer/voters won’t willingly fork over to end poverty, then maybe they’ll cough up to fight drugs or terrorism. Conflicting ideologies, as presently constituted, are nothing more than a cover for what’s really going on, like the colors of competing gangs.” — Author L. Neil Smith

    The American kleptocracy (a government ruled by thieves) continues to suck the American people down a rabbit hole into a parallel universe in which the Constitution is meaningless, the government is all-powerful, and the citizenry is powerless to defend itself against government agents who steal, spy, lie, plunder, kill, abuse and generally inflict mayhem and sow madness on everyone and everything in their sphere.

    Case in point: in the same week that Wikileaks dropped its bombshell about the CIA’s use of spy tools to subject law-abiding Americans to all manner of government surveillance and hacking—a revelation that caused barely a ripple of concern among the citizenry—the government quietly and with little fanfare continued to wage its devastating, stomach-churning, debilitating war on the American people.

    Incredibly, hardly anyone noticed.

    This begs the question: if the government is overstepping its authority, abusing its power, and disregarding the rule of law but no one seems to notice—and no one seems to care—does it matter if the government has become a tyrant?

    Here’s my short answer: when government wrongdoing ceases to matter, America will have ceased to be.

    Just consider the devastation wrought in one week in the life of our American kleptocracy:

    On Monday, March 6, police were given the go-ahead to keep stealing from Americans who were innocent of any wrongdoing.

    In refusing to hear a challenge to Texas’ asset forfeiture law, the U.S. Supreme Court allowed Texas police to keep $201,000 in ill-gotten cash primarily on the basis that the seized cash—the proceeds of a home sale—was being transported on a highway associated with illegal drug trade, despite any proof of illegal activity by the owner. Asset forfeiture laws, which have come under intense scrutiny and criticism in recent years, allow the police to seize property “suspected” of being connected to criminal activity without having to prove the owner of the property is guilty of a criminal offense.

    On April 1, 2013, James Leonard was driving with a companion, Nicosa Kane, on U.S. Highway 59 in Texas when the vehicle was stopped by a state police officer for allegedly speeding and following another vehicle too closely. A subsequent search of the vehicle disclosed a safe in the trunk, which Leonard explained belonged to his mother, Lisa Leonard, and contained cash. When the police officer contacted Lisa Leonard, she confirmed that the safe’s contents belonged to her, that the contents constituted personal business, and that she would not consent to allowing the officer to open the safe. After police secured a search warrant, the safe was opened and found to contain $201,000 and a bill of sale for a home in Pennsylvania.

    Neither the Leonards nor Kane were found to be in possession of illegal drugs. However, the state initiated civil forfeiture proceedings against the $201,100 on the ground that it was substantially connected to criminal activity because Highway 59 is reputed to be a drug corridor. At trial, Lisa Leonard testified that the money was being sent to Texas so that she could use it to purchase a home for her son and Kane. Both the trial and appeals courts affirmed the authority of state officials to seize and keep Leonard’s funds under the state’s asset forfeiture law, basing their ruling on wholly circumstantial evidence and the reputation of Highway 59. Leonard then asked the U.S. Supreme Court to compel Texas to return her money, given that she was innocent of any crime. In refusing to hear the case on a technicality, the Supreme Court turned its back on justice and allowed the practice of policing for profit to continue.

    On Tuesday, March 7, hacked information about the surveillance state was met with a collective shrug by the public, a sign of how indifferent the citizenry has become to living in an electronic concentration camp.

    Wikileaks confirmed what we’ve suspected all along: the government’s ability to spy on law-abiding Americans is far more invasive than what we’ve been told. According to the Wikileaks Vault 7 data dump, government agencies such as the CIA and the NSA have been spying on the citizenry through our smart TVs, listening in on our phone calls, hacking into our computerized devices (including our cars), and compromising our security systems through the use of Trojan horses, spyware and malware.

    As this Wikileaks revelation confirms, we now have a fourth branch of government. This fourth branch came into being without any electoral mandate or constitutional referendum, and yet it possesses superpowers, above and beyond those of any other government agency save the military. It is all-knowing, all-seeing and all-powerful. It operates beyond the reach of the president, Congress and the courts, and it marches in lockstep with the corporate elite who really call the shots in Washington, DC.

    You might know this branch of government as Surveillance, but I prefer “technotyranny,” a term coined by investigative journalist James Bamford to refer to an age of technological tyranny made possible by government secrets, government lies, government spies and their corporate ties. Beware of what you say, what you read, what you write, where you go, and with whom you communicate, because it will all be recorded, stored and used against you eventually, at a time and place of the government’s choosing.

    Privacy, as we have known it, is dead.

    On Wednesday, March 8, police were given further incentives to use the “fear for my life” rationale as an excuse for shooting unarmed individuals.

    Upon arriving on the scene of a nighttime traffic accident, an Alabama police officer shot a driver exiting his car, mistakenly believing the wallet in his hand to be a gun. From the time the driver stumbled out of his car, waving his wallet in the air, to the time he was shot in the abdomen, only six seconds had elapsed. Although the Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals concluded “that a reasonable officer in Hancock’s position would have feared for his life,” the video footage makes clear that the courts continue to march in lockstep with the police, because no reasonable person would shoot first and ask questions later.

    A report by the Justice Department on police shootings in Philadelphia, which boasts the fourth largest police department in the country, found that half of the unarmed people shot by police over a seven-year span were “shot because the officer saw something (like a cellphone) or some action (like a person pulling at the waist of their pants) and misidentified it as a threat.”

    What exactly are we teaching these young officers in the police academy when the slightest thing, whether it be a hand in a pocket, a man running towards them, a flashlight on a keychain, a wallet waved in a hand, or a dehumanizing stare can ignite a strong enough “fear for their safety” to justify doing whatever is deemed necessary to neutralize the threat, even if it means firing on an unarmed person?

    On Thursday, March 9, police were given even more leeway in how much damage they can inflict on those they serve and the extent to which they can disregard the Constitution.  

    The Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in favor of a police officer who allowed a police dog to maul a homeless man innocent of any wrongdoing. The case arose in 2010 after a police dog attacked a homeless man near an abandoned house where police were tracking a robbery suspect. The cop refused to call off the dog immediately, despite the man’s pleading and the fact that he did not match the description of the robbery suspect. The homeless man suffered deep bites on his hand, arm and thigh, that required a nearly 16-inch skin graft, as well as severe bleeding, bruising, swelling and an arterial blood clot. Incredibly, not only did the court declare that the police officer was protected by qualified immunity, which incentivizes government officials to violate constitutional rights without fear of repercussion, but it had the nerve to suggest that being mauled by a police dog is the equivalent of a lawful Terry stop in which police may stop and hold a person for questioning on the basis of “reasonable suspicion.”

    Also on March 9, government officials assured the Michigan Supreme Court that there was nothing unlawful, unreasonable or threatening about the prospect of armed police dressed in SWAT gear knocking on doors at 4 a.m. and “asking” homeowners to engage in warrantless “knock-and-talk” sessions. Although government lawyers insist citizens can choose to say no to such heavy-handed requests by police to conduct unwarranted interrogations, if such coercive tactics are allowed, it would give SWAT teams further incentive to further terrorize anyone even remotely—or mistakenly—suspected of wrongdoing without fear of repercussion.

    On Friday, March 10, the military industrial complex continued to wage war abroad, while government agencies, including members of the military, remained embroiled in controversies over sexual misconduct.

    A day after military brass defended the U.S.-led raid in Yemen that killed 10 children and at least six women, Gen. Joseph Votel, the head of U.S. Central Command, informed members of Congress that even more U.S. troops were needed in Afghanistan to combat the Taliban. Some 8400 American troops have been stationed in Afghanistan since the U.S. invaded the country post 9/11. Approximately 400 more Marines are being sent to Syria to aid U.S. forces in their fight against ISIS.

    That same day, news reports indicated that members of several branches of the U.S. military, including the Marines, have been using online bulletin boards to either share or solicit nude or explicit photos and videos of women in the military. One Facebook page for Marines, which has nearly 30,000 followers, contained graphic language about how the women photographed, some without their knowledge or consent, should be treated. As the Center for Investigative Reporting (CIR) revealed, “One member of the Facebook group suggested that the service member sneaking the photos should ‘take her out back and pound her out.’ Others suggested more than vaginal sex: ‘And butthole. And throat. And ears. Both of them. Video it though … for science.’” According to CIR, the photo sharing began less than a month after the first Marine infantry unit was assigned women.

    The FBI has also been getting in on the photo-sharing gig, only its agents have been distributing child porn, allegedly in an effort to catch consumers of child porn. Curiously, the Department of Justice has opted to drop its case against a man accused of child pornography rather than be forced to disclose the FBI’s tactics for spying on suspected child porn consumers and entrapping them as part of its Operation Pacifier sting. What the case revealed was that for a little while, in its single-minded pursuit of lawbreakers, the FBI became a lawbreaker itself as the largest distributor of child pornography. All told, the FBI uploaded tens of thousands of images of child pornography to the “dark web.”

    As reporter Bryan Clark points out:

    At the intersection of technology and law, we’ve proven two things as the result of Operation Pacifier: 1. Government bodies have proven their willingness to circumvent — or even break — the law to capture suspected criminals it’s not even willing to prosecute. 2. We’re living in an age where — to agencies like the FBI — criminals and their victims are less important than the tools used to track them down. It’s hard to argue on the side of an alleged pedophile. But in this case, the FBI was the pedophile’s equal. It was the agency, you’ll recall, that disseminated these images to some 150,000 registered members… this means the FBI perpetrated the same heinous crime it attempted to charge others with, all while securing what could result in zero convictions.

    Mind you, this was just one week of shootings, degradation, excessive force, abuse of power and complicity in the American police state. Magnify the impact of these events 52 times over, because they are taking place every week in this country, and you will find yourself weak at the knees.

    Somewhere over the course of the past 240-plus years, democracy has given way to kleptocracy, and representative government has been rejected in favor of rule by career politicians, corporations and thieves—individuals and entities with little regard for the rights of American citizens.

    This dissolution of that sacred covenant between the citizenry and the government—establishing “we the people” as the masters and the government as the servant—didn’t happen overnight. It didn’t happen because of one particular incident or one particular president. It is a process, one that began long ago and continues in the present day, aided and abetted by politicians who have mastered the polarizing art of how to “divide and conquer.”

    Unfortunately, there is no magic spell to transport us back to a place and time where “we the people” weren’t merely fodder for a corporate gristmill, operated by government hired hands, whose priorities are money and power.

    Our freedoms have become casualties in an all-out war on the American people.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, this war is being fought on many fronts, with bullets and tasers, with surveillance cameras and license readers, with intimidation and propaganda, with court rulings and legislation, with the collusion of every bureaucrat on the government’s payroll, and most effectively of all, with the complicity of the American people, who continue to allow themselves to be easily manipulated by their politics, distracted by their pastimes, and acclimated to a world in which government corruption is the norm.

    How do we stop the hemorrhaging?

    Start by waking up. Pay attention to what’s going on around you. Most of all, think for yourself.

    As H. L. Mencken observed:

    The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself, without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane and intolerable, and so, if he is romantic, he tries to change it. And even if he is not romantic personally he is very apt to spread discontent among those who are.

  • The Elite Are Prepped And Ready For The Economic Crisis

    The following is an interesting overview, via X22Report.com, of our current economic situation and the behavior of the elites going into the next stage of the collapse process.

    As Alt-Market’s Brandon Smith notes, take special note of the information on the abrupt decline in bank issued loans (debt); is it not rather coincidental that as the Federal Reserve presses forward with the interest rate hiking process that credit issuance suddenly freezes up?

    This is what I have been warning about since last year, and now we are watching it unfold

  • Saudi King Arrives In Japan: 10 Aircraft, 500 Limos, 500 Tons Of Luggage, 12,000 Hotel Rooms, 2 Golden Escalators

    When Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia visited Georgetown in September 2015, the Four Seasons hotel did some serious redecorating.  As we reported at the time, eyewitnesses at the luxury hotel had seen crates of gilded furniture and accessories being wheeled into the posh hotel over the past several days, culminating in a home-away-from-home fit for the billionaire Saudi monarch, who was in Washington then for his first White House meeting with President Barack Obama.

    Everything is gold,” said one Four Seasons regular. “Gold mirrors, gold end tables, gold lamps, even gold hat racks.” Red carpets were been laid down in hallways and even in the lower parking garage, so the king and his family never have to touch asphalt when departing their custom Mercedes caravan

    The guests staying at the 222-room hotel for the next couple of days are all part of the 79-year-old king’s entourage of Saudi diplomats, family members and assistants, one source said; a full buyout of the entire property was reserved for the visit. Guests who had booked to stay at the Four Seasons during the royal visit have apparently been moved to other luxury hotels in town. A call to the Four Seasons confirmed the hotel is sold out Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights.

    Fast forward to this week, when the same King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud landed in Japan, leading to largely to the same reaction, namely people stunned at the size of his delegation and his 500 tons of luggage. The king made quite an entrance, descending from his plane on one of his two golden escalators. The four-day visit, which began Sunday, is part of the Saudi royal’s month-long Asia trip, as the kingdom looks to diversify its economy from oil dependency. Saudi Arabia is Japan’s largest oil supplier.

    The king’s delegation arrived in Japan on 10 aircraft and according to the Japanese press, an entourage so large even Japanese government officials didn’t have an accurate number of how many people to expect. In preparation for the royal visit, 1,200 rooms in Tokyo’s best hotels were booked for the delegation.

    King Salman appears to have upped his game since visiting the US and, most recently, Indonesia, where he brought two limousines with him. In Japan, an entire fleet of up to 500 limousines were sourced from around the country according to RT.  “Maintenance costs for luxury models are high and there is little constant demand for such vehicles,” a limousine industry insider told Asahi Shimbun. “Because we are unable to secure the needed number only in Tokyo, we are gathering the vehicles from Kanagawa and Saitama prefectures as well as the Tokai region.”

    While he was in Indonesia, the king also had a special toilet built for him inside a mosque, and another inside the House of Representatives.

    On Monday, King Salman met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. King Salman visited the country as a prince in 2014, but this is the first Saudi Arabian king to visit in 46 years. Salman told Abe that the Middle East is facing diplomatic issues involving the Palestinians, Japan Times reported, and cited humanitarian crises in Yemen and Syria. A Saudi-led coalition has been bombing Yemen for almost two years. “Unfortunately, those crises are now giving negative impacts to the region,” the king said.

    The Saudi royal’s trip caused many on social media to react in anger, comparing the king’s lavish travel to the situation in war-torn Yemen.

    But perhaps the most important part of King Salman’s trip has yet to come: his visit to China. As the SCMP reported in “Why King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud upcoming visit to China is important to Beijing … and a worry for Washington“, the trip by King Salman comes amid uncertainty in the kingdom’s ties with Washington, and Beijing’s push to strengthen its presence in the Middle East.

    Oil and Beijing’s “One Belt, One Road” trade initiative are expected to head the agenda when the king of Saudi Arabia stops in China as part of his Asian tour.

     

    Dates for the trip have yet to be announced, but diplomatic ­observers said the king’s agenda would probably include oil ­exports to China – the world’s ­second-biggest buyer of the fuel– infrastructure projects for Beijing’s trade initiative linking Asia, Africa and Europe.

     

    The 81-year-old king embarked on his Asia-Pacific trip late last month and is travelling with 25 princes and 10 ministers. After stops in Malaysia and Indonesia, he is taking a break in Bali.

    His 1,500-member delegation and 459 tonnes of luggage will go on to Brunei, Japan, China, the Maldives and Jordan.

     

    Saudi Arabia’s alliance with the US has been overshadowed by issues such as the Iran nuclear deal, the war in Syria and Islamic extremism. US President Donald Trump’s policy on the region is also unclear.

     

    China has boosted ties with the kingdom, with President Xi Jinping visiting Riyadh early last year before going to Tehran. Security ties between the two nations have also strengthened, with Saudi Arabia buying Chinese military technology and a Chinese naval fleet visiting the port of ­Jeddah in January.

    In other words, if the Saudis want to pivot from the US and toward China, King Salman’s visit to Beijing will be the perfect opportunity.

    Or maybe not, because while the king is courting Asian leaders, his son, Deputy Crown Prince, and Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman are currently in the US meeting with President Trump, and as the WSJ reports, “seeking to reset ties as Trump meets the prince.”

  • Illinois General Assembly Retirement System Only 13.52% Funded

    Authored by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    Despite a massive rally in the stock market, Illinois public pension liabilities continue to grow.

    GARS, the Illinois General Assembly Retirement System, is only 13.52% funded, down from 17% funded in 2013. How long can GARS last?

    Meanwhile, Illinois has accrued a combined net pension liability of roughly $130 billion on which it assumes a 7% return.

    Effectively, that is an interest liability of $9.1 billion a year even though that liability technically does not bear interest.

    This is a guest post from Michael Lucci at the Illinois Policy Institute.

    Interest on Illinois’ Pension Debt is $9.1 Billion Per Year

    Illinois isn’t covering the interest payments on its pension debt. Those interest payments total $9.1 billion a year.

    This is the reason Illinois’ pension debt continues to grow. As with personal credit card debt, until the interest is paid off none of the actual debt gets erased. Illinois’ pension debt is so large that it’s unlikely payments will cover the interest on the pension debt until 2028, according to a November 2016 special pension briefing from the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability.

    Illinois politicians have known for years about the state’s pension crisis, even if they have not taken serious steps to address the problem. Gov. Bruce Rauner recently spoke out on the cost of interest on the pension debt. Former Gov. George Ryan weighed in as well, saying:

    “First off, the biggest problem we got with the budget right now is the interest they are paying on the debt. If I were the governor, … I’d say we are never going to be able to pay the full debt back, so let’s eliminate half the debt right now and write it off.

     

    “If that’s not constitutional, it might be worth changing the constitution. That would dramatically reduce the amount of interest that they’re paying. The bond ratings would go up and the interest would go down.”

    Ryan seemed to be referring to the annual “interest cost” on Illinois’ pension debt, which is about $9.1 billion per year, or $25 million per day. The portion of interest cost that isn’t covered each year is simply added to the debt.

    Why Illinois’ pension debt keeps growing

    Illinois has about $78 billion in assets on hand to pay for pensions. But the present value of the state’s accrued liability is $208 billion. That leaves a difference of $130 billion, which is money the state owes – but doesn’t have.

    Illinois pension math assumes an annual investment return rate of just over 7 percent on $208 billion in pension assets. If pension assets end up returning less than 7 percent per year, then the actual pension liability will end up being much larger than is currently assumed.

    However, $130 billion of that accrued pension liability doesn’t exist, which is considered the pension debt. This debt does not bear interest like a bond does – but it functions the same way in reality. Because $130 billion is missing, Illinois will automatically miss out on the 7 percent annual investment return on that nonexistent $130 billion. This “missed” investment return is about $9.1 billion per year, and is essentially the interest cost on the $130 billion pension debt.

    Illinois’ type of payment plan, which fails to cover interest, is called “negative amortization.” The debt principal continues to grow because the pension payment does not cover the interest cost. The portion of the interest payment that isn’t covered is added to the debt.

    As actuary Tia Goss Sawhney explained, a full pension payment is made up of three parts:

    Full payment = Employer normal cost + interest cost + principal reduction payment

    However, Illinois’ scheduled pension payments are too small to cover the normal cost and interest cost, causing the unfunded liability to go up. For example, in fiscal year 2018, Illinois will make an $8.9 billion pension payment, which will cover the $2.1 billion employer normal cost and $6.8 billion of annual interest cost. However, the annual interest cost is actually $9.1 billion, meaning that after the employer’s portion of the normal cost, Illinois will come up $2.3 billion short on the interest payment. The unpaid portion of the interest cost is added to the debt, just as if a person didn’t cover the full interest payment on a home loan or credit card. In Illinois’ case, that $2.3 billion shortfall will be added to the pension debt.

    The reason the principal reduction payment is negative is because the debt grows.

    Illinois needs a constitutional amendment to allow for real pension reform

    As Ryan pointed out, Illinois’ pension math might never add up without reducing the $130 billion pension debt, which the Illinois Constitution currently protects from being restructured. Even though Illinois is already overtaxed, and pension costs are driving up taxes more each year, the state still can’t cover the interest cost on the pension debt until 2028. On top of that, many local communities like Chicago have pension problems that are even more severe than the state’s problems. And the math gets even worse if Illinois doesn’t hit investment returns of 7 percent per year.

    A golden rule of finance is this: Debt that can’t be paid won’t be paid. The state should develop a contingency plan to repeal the Illinois Constitution’s pension protection clause and restructure pension obligations to pull Illinois out of a potential death spiral should the need arise. Such a plan should preserve benefits for government workers with modest pensions while means-testing the richer pension benefits. This would almost certainly be challenged as a violation of the contracts clause of the U.S. Constitution, and the U.S. Supreme Court might ultimately decide the matter.

    Illinois might be one serious recession away from a financial death spiral. A deep recession would reduce the value of pension assets while also causing tax revenues to decline. Illinois’ pension obligations would increase just as tax revenues dried up. After such a recession ended, out-migration would likely surge as Illinoisans increasingly realized the impossibility of financing their government’s spending promises. If financial assets fall and do not recover, Illinois’ pension math might be doomed.

    The battered ship of Illinois’ finances is lurching toward a rocky shore. Lawmakers should develop a contingency plan for an emergency situation, and be prepared to enact it in order to salvage the state’s finance.

    Michael Lucci

    Start Mish Comments – Death Spiral

    Lucci noted: “Illinois might be one serious recession away from a financial death spiral.”

    He is too optimistic. Illinois’ pension is in a financial death spiral whether a recession hits or not.

    Despite a massive rally, state of Illinois pension liabilities grew. It will not take a recession for a crisis to hit. Illinois is in a crisis now.

    That crisis will be obvious to everyone when a big correction hits the stock market. Like it or not, a big correction is guaranteed at some point.

    Blowing Bubbles

    Thanks to the monetary policies of the Fed, ECB, Bank of China, Bank of Japan, and central banks in general, stock markets have now surpassed the 1929 high in bubbliness.

    Only the dot-com bubble was bigger.

    John Hussman has an excellent write-up of the bubble in When Speculators Prosper Through Ignorance.

    Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog continues the discussion with Speculative Blow-Offs in Stock Markets – Part 2

    Destructive Bubbles

    Central banks’ seriously misguided attempts to fight routine consumer price deflation, fueled very destructive asset bubbles that eventually collapse.

    Worse yet, many pension plans did not even benefit from the speculative boom, but they sure will participate in the next collapse.

    GMO 7-Year Forecast

    As of the end of 2016, GMO forecast real (inflation-adjusted) losses in both US stocks and bonds for the next seven years!

    Things are so bubbly now, that GMO now foresees nominal losses in US equities. At this juncture, even gains of say 3.5% for the next seven years would sink the system.

    Pension Reality

    Public unions are already screaming for tax hikes to bail them out. Giving in to such an approach would do nothing but further drive businesses and wealthy Illinoisans out of the state, compounding the problem.

    It’s time to admit reality: The Illinois pension system is insolvent, and not just at the state level. Illinois cities are also impacted.

    Illinois Cure

    • At the municipal level, we need bankruptcy legislation so that cities and municipalities can shed liabilities in bankruptcy proceedings.
    • At the state level, we need pension reform. I propose taxing pension benefits above a certain level at a high enough rate to make the system solvent.

    How likely is that?

    For the answer, please recall my opening remarks: GARS, the Illinois General Assembly Retirement System, is only 13.52% funded, down from 17% funded in 2013.

    Illinois is in a pension crisis. Forced admission of that fact will soon be thrust on Illinois politicians who will undoubtedly have an eye on your pocketbook. In fact, they already do: Mary Pat at Stump reports Illinois wants to tax ALL THE THINGS!

    National Problem

    Lest you think only Illinois is affected by this mess please consider:

    1. Dallas on Verge of Bankruptcy Due to Pensions; Just a Matter of Time (For Dallas, Houston, LA, Oakland, Chicago, etc)
    2. Criminal Witch Hunt in Dallas Pension Fiasco
    3. In Search of a Fix (When None is Possible): What Happens?

    National Cure

    Every state in the union will be affected as soon as the stock rally subsides. Even flat returns for seven years would bankrupt most state pension systems.

    Corrupt states like Illinois will never address the problem properly.

    We need national bankruptcy legislation to allow municipal bankruptcies in every state, national right-to-work legislation, and the end of prevailing wage laws to lower cost burdens on cash-strapped cities and states.

  • Turkish Foreign Minister: EU Falling Apart, "The Futures Of Europe Will Not Be Pleasant"

    The diplomatic scandal between Turkey and the Netherlands continued for a fourth day on Tuesday, just hours ahead of the Dutch general election on Wednesday, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan once again accused the Netherlands of state terrorism and having a “rotten” character as the diplomatic spat between the two countries deepens, adding he would mobilize the Islamic world to fight xenophobia, racism and Islamophobia.

    Speaking at a medical conference in Ankara on Tuesday, Erdogan accused the Netherlands of being responsible for the 1995 Srebrenica massacre during the Bosnian War. Dutch peacekeepers have been accused of standing down and letting Bosnian Serb forces kill up to 8,000 Bosnian Muslims in the city considered a UN “safe area.”

    “We know the Netherlands and the Dutch from the Srebrenica massacre,” Erdogan told his audience. “We know how rotten their character is from their massacre of 8,000 Bosnians there. Nobody should try to give us lessons on morality, especially not those who have blood on their hands.”

    “The Netherlands, with its display of state terrorism, has caused huge damage to Europe and the EU,” Erdogan said on Tuesday as cited by the Hurriyet. “Now, for those who want to cooperate with the EU, it has ceased to be a symbol of human rights and freedom. Europe is too important to be left at the mercy of rogue states.”

    But it was the statement by Erdogan’s foreign minister Melvut Cavusoglu that was more notable than the, by now repetitive Erdogan, because what Cavusoglu said was far more accurate than Erdogan’s deranged accusations of fascism this, and naxism that..

    The Turkish Foreign Minister accused the European Union of resorting to double standards in relations with Turkey. “Do you know why? It is due to fear… The European Union is falling apart,” the foreign minister said, as quoted by the Anadolu news agency.

    Cavusoglu pointed out that the European countries were united around certain values, which were now “disappearing one-by-one” and added that “the future of Europe will not be pleasant at all.”

    For those who may have missed the events over the past few days, Turkish-EU relations have collapsed in recent days amid the Netherlands’ refusal to let Turkish officials organize demonstrations supporting the constitutional amendments that will be subject to the referendum scheduled for April 16 and, if endorsed, will give more powers to country’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Ankara reacted furiously, promising reciprocal actions and launching sanctions against the Netherlands, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan labeled the Dutch authorities’ behavior as “Nazism.” On Monday, Ankara suspended high-level political contacts with the Netherlands and sent the country a diplomatic note, criticizing the treatment of Cavusoglu. Dutch authorities, in turn, demanded an apology for being compared to Nazis.

    The diplomatic fallout has boosted the approval rating of Dutch anti-immigration populist Geert Wilders, although as Bloomberg notes, it is not clear if it will be enough just hours before the Netherlands general election.

  • Idaho House Votes Overwhelmingly To End Income Taxation Of Precious Metals

    Authored by Stefan Gleason via Money Metals Exchange,

    By an overwhelming 56-13 margin, the Idaho House of Representatives today voted to end all Idaho taxation on precious metals, e.g. gold and silver coins and bars.

    Bill sponsor Representative Mike Moyle (R) and the entire Republican caucus voted for the measure. If the Republican-controlled Idaho Senate follows suit and Governor Butch Otter (R) signs the bill, Idaho citizens will better be able to use gold and silver as a form of savings which protects against ongoing devaluation of America’s currency.

    Backed by the Sound Money Defense League, Idaho Freedom Foundation, Money Metals Exchange, and grassroots activists, HB 206 expands Idaho’s existing sales tax exemption to end Idaho income taxation of sales of “precious metals bullion” and “monetized bullion.”

    “According to the U.S. Constitution, Article I, Section 10, there is only one thing that a state can declare as currency if they think that our federal currency is going out of whack and some might argue that they think our federal currency is going out of whack already,” said Representative Ron Nate (R) from the House floor.

     

    “If we are not going to allow people to declare capital losses on their Federal Reserve Notes or their dollar holdings, it would also be unfair to tax people for their gold and silver holdings. Gold and silver is an alternative to holding Federal Reserve Notes and it is the ONLY alternative that the U.S. Constitution says that the state can allow as another currency. It’s unfair to tax it just as [it’s unfair] to tax losses on Federal Reserve Notes” continued Rep. Nate.

     

    Under current law, the taxpayer who sells their precious metals may end up with a capital “gain” in terms of Federal Reserve Notes – commonly referred to as “dollars.” This capital ‘gain’ is not necessarily a real gain. It’s often a nominal gain that simply results from the inflation created by the Federal Reserve and the attendant decline in the dollar’s purchasing power. Yet this nominal gain is taxed at the federal level – and taxed again by Idaho.

    Under HB 206, precious metals gains and losses reported on a taxpayer’s federal income tax return would be removed from the calculation of the taxpayer’s Idaho taxable income.

    “Policies that discourage precious metals ownership reduce the likelihood that Gem State citizens will take prudent steps to insulate themselves from the inflation and financial turmoil caused by the Federal Reserve System,” said Stefan Gleason, director of the Sound Money Defense League. “Precious metals bullion is already exempt from Idaho’s sales tax. HB 206 removes the final disincentive in Idaho tax law that stands against ownership of the monetary metals.”

    States are taking actions to defend sound money because the monetary system in America, largely run by the Federal Reserve, has dramatically undermined the purchasing power of the currency to the detriment of savers and wage-earners in particular.

    Legislators in Utah and Oklahoma have already enacted similar income tax measures and Arizona may enact its own version of HB206 in the new few weeks. Other states such as Tennessee, Maine, and Alabama are working to remove precious metals from the sales tax – just like Idaho and over 20 states have already done.

    For more information on House Bill 206, please follow this link.

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Today’s News 14th March 2017

  • How Shale Is Reshaping The World: Three New Wars

    Via The Gavekal USA Team,

    We recently met with geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan to discuss world events since the American election and his new book, “The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World without America.” In the book, Peter credits energy and resource innovations with reshaping the global geopolitical environment.

     

    We covered so much ground in our visit with Peter that we decided to break it into two reports. Last month in part 1, we covered the broad impact of the Shale Revolution, which he calls, “the greatest evolution of the American industrial space since 1970,” and which he expects to accelerate the breakdown of the global order as we know it. Today, in part 2, we examine the major global shifts in geopolitics that will result as the US moves into energy independence. Peter believes this will reshape global geopolitics, leading to three major conflicts – Russia vs. Europe, Iran vs. Saudi Arabia & an Asian Tanker War. It is these conflicts we asked him to discuss in greater detail. We hope you enjoy the discussion.

    GAVEKAL CAPITAL: We last left off discussing how the oil export ban could be rescinded if global geopolitical issues flare up. What are you on the lookout for?

    PETER ZEIHAN:There are three big conflicts I see that could cause a major schism between what the US pays for oil and what the rest of the world pays for it. I’m talking about a potential global oil price of around $150 per barrel while the US pays only $50 per barrel thanks to shale oil in the US and a resumption of the ban on oil exports. The break-even cost in the United States is around $40. If you put the embargo back in place, you’ve got a functional ceiling on how high the price can be domestically. If shale overproduces and you can’t export the crude, then it’s a question of refining capacity which can’t be built out that quickly.

    War number one is Russia vs Europe. The Russian demographic situation is already untenable and it’s moving into catastrophic. By the time we get to about 2020-2022, the size of the Russian army will be less than half of what it was last year. The post-Soviet Union baby bust was that sharp, so if they are going to use their military in an attempt to re-shape their world, they have to do it now. And in many ways they already are. Depending on which scenario plays out -I list several in my book -anywhere from two to seven million barrels per day of crude in the market goes offline. Former Soviet Union oil shipments are in danger in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Eastern Poland, Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Northeast Romania, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. That list is the entirety of Russia’s western energy exports. The Russians will either use oil as a political tool, or the targeted folks will say, “You’re not going to sell crude through us while you’re conquering us.” Either way it’s going offline. And because Russian energy production is in the permafrost it can’t be shut in safely. If you turn off the wells, they freeze solid and you have to re-drill them, so from the point that the Russians stop production in a field, it’s 10 years minimum to bring it back online.

    One of the biggest mistakes I think people make when analyzing Russia is they don’t realize that the Russians are not thinking about money right now. The general consensus is that the Russians won’t do anything to disrupt the flow of oil because they need the oil income. That’s not how the Russians are thinking at all. Their current borders are completely unsustainable, and they only have a short window to do something about it. The Russians see the end of their country on the horizon, and they’d rather have that be 60 years from now than five years from now. There’s no route for withdrawal: they’ve got to get through to the Carpathians, the Caucasus and they’ve got to get to the Polish gap and the Baltic Sea.I believe Russia’s move to extend its border is going to fail, but if I were Putin right now, I wouldn’t have a better plan. And that will take, based on which scenario goes down, between two million and nine million barrels of crude offline, and five BCF and 12 BCF of natural gas.

    GC:What do you think of the relationship between Trump and Putin?

    PZ:For two men with egos as large and as fragile as Trump and Putin, I can’t imagine they’re going to get along for long. However, for 2017 both of them have a lot reasons to focus on other issues, so burying the hatchet for the moment makes a lot of sense. Also, the United States has no long-term rationale to get involved in a ground war with a nuclear-armed power who’s a shell of its former self, with nothing to lose and who is invading countries that aren’t even defending themselves. I expect the rhetoric to pick back up, but for 2017, I think it’s going to be pretty calm in bilateral relations. This will free up Russia to act more aggressively regionally. That means Ukraine is even more in play. That means breaking up the European Union. That means consolidating the former Soviet space. All of that is going to go into high gear this year and next.

    GC:What’s Russia’s interest in breaking up Europe?

    PZ:If the Europeans are squabbling –and it’s not a difficult task to get the Europeans to squabble –they can’t form a common front against the Russians unless they’re American-led. So if the Americans step back for their own reasons, and you can keep the Europeans at each other’s rhetorical throats, Russia can take advantage.

    GC:What would be the bell that would ring that would announce to the world that Russia is on the move?

    PZ:We have the French nationalists saying that the Russians are intervening in French national elections just like they did in the US. So the bells are ringing left, right and center. It’s happening. We’ve already had civil discontent in Latvia and Estonia caused by Russian efforts.

    GC:Who goes to bat for these countries?

    PZ:Well, if it’s not the United States, if you’re the Baltic countries, it’s Sweden. And I think they will. But Sweden can’t roll back the Russians by themselves. They can make it hurt like hell. For Poland, it’s Germany. The Poles just get the bad end of every stick throughout history, and they’re about to get another one. For Romania and the Caucasus, it might be Turkey. Although the Russians are doing everything they can to make sure that the Turks don’t want to get involved, and so far it’s working. Poland, plus Germany, plus the Scandinavians, plus the Brits are sufficient to roll the Russians back.

    GC:Are you starting to see movement of personnel and material in anticipation of this?

    PZ:All three of the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) have given up on conventional warfare. They have largely, for all practical purposes, disbanded their conventional militaries and they’re training their entire population in guerilla tactics. They know what’s coming. And the number one country to assist them with that is Sweden. The Finns are basically breaking out all their grandfathers’ equipment and getting ready for another Winter War.

    GC:Geographically, is it easy to roll into the Baltic states and Poland?

    PZ:Estonia and Latvia are nearly as easy to roll into as Poland. Lithuania is a little bit more difficult. There’s a lot of forest; it’s a bit more rugged. But rolling back the Russians on land has to be German-led, and the Germans don’t have an army right now. They’re the only ones who have the demography to potentially fill a force that could do it.

    GC:What could Europe do that would be sufficient for Trump to want to get involved?

    PZ:If they doubled defense spending in the next 12 months, that could at least get the conversation started. But if the free trade era is over, if Bretton Woods is over, why would you get involved if you are the US? It’s not a ridiculous position, even if Trump makes it sound that way sometimes.

    GC:Does the US continue selling weapons to everyone?

    PZ:Oh, of course, the US isn’t that crazy! The US will still pick sides, will still provide intelligence and might even rent out a bunch of drones. I don’t mean to suggest there’s no American role, but the idea of the US Army coming to the rescue, that’s off the table. As we discovered in Crimea, NATO’s rapid reaction divisions are only 500 troops each. In the aftermath of Crimea, only four divisions of 500 troops were sent. The US provided one, Canada provided one, Poland finally provided one, and the other one was all the other NATO counties put together.

    GC:How many Russian troops are in Crimea, Ukraine, right now?

    PZ:It is tough to know exactly but I’d say at least 15,000 Russian troops are in Crimea. On paper, the Russian military is still basically a million-man army. They are not, man for man, nearly as good as American troops, but they’re better than Spanish troops or Italian troops or Polish troops. In order for Russia to pull this off they probably need at least 100,000 troops. You’re talking about two million square miles and 70 million people. You’re not going to do that with 10,000 people.

    GC:This is going to take a massive mobilization effort on Russia’s part, right?

     

    PZ: Well, the mobilization won’t take as long as you’d think because there’s already at least 25,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, not counting the ones that aren’t officially in Ukraine proper.

    That process has already started. The Ukrainian military has basically been decapitated. You haven’t heard a lot about Ukraine recently because the Russians sent in a few special forces troops to bait the Ukrainians to send out their own best troops –their American-led, American-equipped troops –to the front. Then Russia used regular army and air force to kill all the commanders of all the best units. So all that Ukraine has left now are reservists. When the war comes, unless the Ukrainians resist to the last man, the regular, organized resistance is already over. It’s just a matter of how fast do the Russians want to push into Kiev.

    Now, once they get to Kiev and the bridges over the Dnieper River, you enter a slightly different sort of war because you move into Western Ukraine which is not a Russified Ukraine. You’re more likely to have civilian resistance in Western Ukraine. But that first half, if that takes a month, I’d be really surprised. Belarus will welcome Russia in, and Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania combined are only six million people. Moldova can’t manage political opposition to Russia, and the Russians already have an active military base with 10,000 troops. So that just leaves Romania. If Romania and Poland are the great hope for the West in this war, then it is not looking good.

    GC:Do you think that war starts this year?

    PZ:I don’t know when it will officially begin, but with the way the political relationship is going, and with what I think is about to happen in Europe, it’s a golden opportunity. The Russians can’t maintain this tempo with the demographic situation for very long so the sooner they start it, the better. If you start it before the Europeans start to function like nation-states again, and if the Americans have already exited stage left, it’s a perfect opportunity. Once the ball gets rolling, this will take several years to play out. I think maybe the end play for Russia is to get the Germans to say, “Okay, you can have Ukraine, but you can’t have Poland. Okay, you can have Belarus, but you can’t have Poland. Okay, you can have Estonia, but you can’t have Poland. What? You took Poland? You can’t have Romania.” That’s basically what the Russians are hoping for. It’s not a stupid plan. That would be their preferred path. And it’s worked before. “Okay, you can have Eastern Poland but we draw the line at Western Poland.” That’s World War II.

    GC: What is war number two?

    PZ:So Russia vs. Europe starts on its own, not over energy security but energy is a clear casualty. Conflict number two is Iran vs. Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf. If the Americans remove themselves from keeping those two powers apart because America no longer cares about keeping oil flows out of the Persian Gulf safe then those two countries fall into direct competition. Eventually, that competition turns into an attempted Iranian invasion of Saudi Arabia.

    GC: How does that play out?

    PZ: There’s a 300-mile desert gap between Kuwait and the oil fields of Saudi Arabia, and it’s not clear that the Iranians can make it across. What the Saudis are doing right now in Yemen is target practice for that, they’re preparing, learning to use their military equipment, particularly their air force, to turn that northern desert buffer into a kill zone. Right now, they are doing it pretty well. Will it be enough? I don’t know. The Saudis would rather not face a war at all, but they know that in a post-Bretton Woods world, without American protection, over time the Iranians will bury them. So just as the Russians feel that they’re on a limited time scale to create more sustainable borders, the Saudis feel they’re on a limited time scale to crush Iran. The 2015-2016 oil price war then wasn’t really about shale, it was about Persia. And to be perfectly blunt, it hasn’t worked as well as the Saudis hoped.

    GC: So will the Saudis try to develop nuclear weapons?

    PZ: No, if it comes to that, Saudi Arabia will just buy them. They can get them from Pakistan and that conversation has already happened. Pakistan has 150 nuclear weapons, and if they can sell them for $1 billion a pop, they are happy to do it. The Saudis are already providing them with subsidized oil in order to make sure that those lines of communication never close. Assuming no one else gets caught in the crossfire, that’s potentially another 11 million barrels per day of crude off the market when these two countries go at it. And if other countries get caught in the crossfire, it goes up to 20 million barrels per day. So the Persian Gulf is War #2.

    GC: Is it connected or disconnected from the Russian war?

    PZ: Disconnected. It could start any time, it could start tomorrow. When the Iranians realize what the Saudis are up to and that it can kill them, that’s when this war begins. The Syrian war has taken a turn that is relatively pro-Iranian recently, so Iran isn’t feeling stressed. A year ago, it was going a very different direction. ISIS is probably the calmest, kindest sort of group that the Saudis will form over the next few years because it is proving that it wasn’t enough. Now, I don’t mean to suggest that the Saudis are pulling the strings of ISIS; they just formed it and then let it go off on its own. And as long as ISIS is killing Persians and Persian allies, the Saudis are totally fine with it. And the Saudis will form more groups, they’ve probably already formed a hundred groups in the last six years alone. Most of them are fighting in Syria but not exclusively, some of those groups like Jundallah are already in Iran.

    GC: What is the third war?

    PZ: The third war is dependent on one of the first two: it doesn’t matter which one happens first, either one will trigger the third war. If you have an oil shortage anywhere in the world — because Russia is on the move toward Europe or because Iran is invading Saudi Arabia — energy security and availability for the rest of the world becomes a question of transport routes. The world’s longest, most vulnerable transport routes are from the Persian Gulf to Northeast Asia. Based on whichever country you are in, that’s anywhere from 5,000 to 7,500 miles. If you have a shortage anywhere, Northeast Asia has to eat the entirety of the shortage because they are furthest from the wells. And, worst of all is that there’s not enough to go around for the Koreans, the Taiwanese, the Chinese and the Japanese. Somebody has to go without, and the country that goes without is the country that cannot physically defend crude oil on a convoy route from the Persian Gulf all the way home. So the third conflict is an Asian tanker war, and that triggers all kinds of different results.

    GC: Who will be the winners and losers of the tanker war?

    PZ: The countries that have the longest reach, like Japan, will probably be able to protect their transport routes the whole way so they should be OK. Japan has by far the strongest navy in that region of the world. Countries that have a deep and abiding experience at bribing people, such as Korea and Taiwan, will probably pay India to fly cover for them for the first part of the trip through the Indian Ocean. This could work out for them, but it comes with a lot of risks. The Chinese have a serious problem with naval power projection and are going to have to establish bases closer to the oil source. That means China will probably have to invade chunks of Vietnam and the Philippines so that they can turn the South China Sea into an internal lake. If they successfully do that, then that’s a 1,000 miles less they have to worry about transporting and protecting their energy supply.

    Ultimately though, I would expect the Chinese to lose the tanker war because of how much oil they need and their relative lack of naval strength. I think the tanker war will be the shortest of the three wars, but it’ll be the most colorful, because it basically breaks down the entire structure that has sustained Northeast Asia’s economic ascension for the last 60 years.

    By the end of these wars, I would expect us to see around $50 oil in the US, $150 oil in Paris and over $200 oil in Beijing (assuming any crude can make it to Beijing at all). The whole supply chain model that has made East Asia successful for the last 50 years will be gone. All that manufacturing capacity has to relocate, or because of the global demographic breakdown and the energy crisis, all that capacity may just disappear because of lack of demand.

    Peter Zeihanis the best-selling author of “The Accidental Superpower.”

  • Exposing The Clinton/Obama System To Discredit Donald Trump

    Authored by Thierry Meyssan via VoltaireNet.org,

    This article is a warning – in November 2016, a vast system of agitation and propaganda was set up in order to destroy the reputation and the authority of President Donald Trump as soon as he arrived in the White House. It is the first time that such a campaign has been scientifically organised against a President of the United States, and with such resources. Yes, we are indeed entering a post-Truth age, but the distribution of rôles is not what you may think it is.

    The campaign waged against the new President of the United States by the sponsors of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and the destruction of the Greater Middle East is on-going. After the Womens’ March on 22 January, a March for Science is scheduled to be held not only in the USA, but also throughout the Western world on 22 April. It’s goal is to show that Donald Trump is not only a misogynist, but also an obscurantist.

    The fact that he is the ex-organiser of the Miss Universe pageant, and that his third wedding was to a model, is apparently enough to prove that he holds women in contempt. The fact that the President contests the rôle played by Barack Obama in the creation of the Chicago Climate Exchange (a long time before his Presidency) and rejects the idea that climatic disturbances are caused by the expulsion of carbon into the atmosphere attest to the fact that he understands nothing about science.

    In order to convince US public opinion of the President’s insanity – a man who says that he hopes for peace with his enemies, and wants to collaborate with them in universal economic prosperity – one of the greatest specialists of agit-prop (agitation & propaganda), David Brock, set up an impressive system even before Trump’s investiture.

    At the time when he was working for the Republicans, Brock launched a campaign against President Bill Clinton which would eventually become Troopergate, the Whitewater affair, and the Lewinsky affair. Having changed his colours, he is today in the service of Hillary Clinton, for whom he has already organised not only the demolition of Mitt Romney’s candidacy but also her riposte in the affair of the assassination of the US ambassador in Benghazi. During the first round of primaries, it was Brock who directed the attacks against Bernie Sanders. The National Review qualified Brock as «a right-wing assassin who has become a left-wing assassin».

    It is important to remember that the two procedures of destitution of a serving President initiated since the Second World War were set in motion for the benefit of the deep state, and not at all for the benefit of democracy. So Watergate was entirely managed by a certgain «Deep Throat» who, 33 years later, was revealed to be Mark Felt, the assistant of J. Edgar Hoover, Director of the FBI. As for the Lewinsky affair, it was simply a way of forcing Bill Clinton to accept the war against Yugoslavia.

    The current campaign is organised in secret by four associations:

    Media Matters is tasked with picking up on Donald Trump’s mistakes. You read his bulletin every day in your newspapers – the President can’t be trusted, he got this or that point wrong.

    American Bridge 21st Century has collected more than 2,000 hours of videos showing Donald Trump over the years, and more than 18,000 hours of other videos of the members of his cabinet. It has at its disposition sophisticated technological equipment designed for the Department of Defense – allegedly not in working order – which enables it to look for contradictions between their older declarations and their current positions. It should be extending its work to 1,200 of the new President’s collaborators.

    Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington — CREW is a firm of high level lawyers tasked with tracking anything that could create a scandal in the Trump administration. Most of the lawyers in this association work pro bono, for the cause. These are the people who prepared the case for Bob Ferguson, the Chief Prosecutor of the state of Washington, against the immigration decree (Executive Order 13769).

    Shareblue is an electronic army which has already connected with 162 million internauts in the USA. It’s job is to spread pre-ordained themes, for example:

    • Trump is authoritarian and a thief.
    • Trump is under the influence of Vladimir Putin.
    • Trump is a weak and quick-tempered personality, he’s a manic-depressive.
    • Trump was not elected by the majority of US citizens, and is therefore illegitimate.
    • His Vice-President, Mike Pence, is a fascist.
    • Trump is a billionaire who will constantly be faced with conflicts of interest between his personal affairs and those of state.
    • Trump is a puppet of the Koch brothers, who are famous for sponsoring the extreme right.
    • Trump is a white supremacist and a threat to minorities.
    • Anti-Trump opposition just keeps growing outside Washington.
    • To save democracy, let’s support the democrataic parliamentarians who are attacking Trump, and let’s demolish those who are co-operating with him.
    • Overthrowing Trump will take time, so don’t let’s weaken in our resolve.

    This association will produce the newsletters and 30-second videos. It will base itself on two other groups – a company which makes documentary videos, The American Independent, and a statistical unit, Benchmark Politics.

    The whole of this system – which was set up during the transitional period, that is to say before Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House – already employed more than 300 specialists to which should be added numerous voluteer workers. Its annual budget, initially calculated at 35 million dollars, was increased to the level of about 100 million dollars.

    Destroying the image – and thus the authority – of the President of the United States, before he has had the time to do anything at all, can have serious consequences. By eliminating Saddam Hussein and Mouamar Kadhafi, the CIA plunged their two countries into a long period of chaos, and the «land of Liberty» itself may suffer severe damage from such an operation. This type of mass manipulation technique has never before been levelled at a head of state in the Western world.

    For the moment, the plan is working – no political leader in the world has dared to celebrate the election of Donald Trump, with the exception of Vladimir Putin and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

  • Hawaii High School Teacher: "If They Are Here In The U.S. Illegally, I Won't Teach Them"

    John Sullivan, a Social Studies teacher at Campbell High School in Oahu, Hawaii, is under fire this week after sending an email to all faculty at his school refusing to teach students who are in the country illegally.  A copy of the email was obtained by Hawaii News Now and read as follows:

    “This is another attack on the President over deportation. Their parents need to apply for immigration like everyone else.  If they are here in the US illegally, I won’t teach them.”

    Hawaii

     

    Sullivan’s reply was in response to an administrator email about the number of children across the country staying home from school due to deportation fears (we touched on the topic last week in a post entitled “Parents Fearing Deportation Make Guardianship Plans ‘In Case Mommy Doesn’t Come Home’“).  Apparently, this latest “attack on the President over deportation” was just the last bit of propaganda he was willing to take lying down.

    Jon Henry Lee, Campbell High School’s principal, confirmed that Sullivan’s actions violated department rules, though the original administrator email, of course, did not, and left open what discipline may be sought over his violation.

    “I just reminded him again that we don’t discriminate against any individuals,” said Lee, who referenced the Department of Education’s Code of Conduct. “We’re going to service all students that are registered in our school.”

     

    Lee also said that Sullivan violated school rules concerning the use of the department’s email system by sharing a political opinion.

     

    A Department of Education spokeswoman said the school’s principal has discretion on any disciplinary action that Sullivan may face. 

    We’re gonna set the over/under on Sullivan’s termination at 2 days…

    http://KHNL.images.worldnow.com/interface/js/WNVideo.js?rnd=446157482;hostDomain=www.hawaiinewsnow.com;playerWidth=600;playerHeight=337;isShowIcon=true;clipId=13161023;flvUri=;partnerclipid=;adTag=News;advertisingZone=;enableAds=true;landingPage=;islandingPageoverride=;playerType=STANDARD_EMBEDDEDscript;controlsType=fixed

  • A CIA Cyber False Flag

    Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    New revelations from Wikileaks’ 'Vault 7' leak shed a disturbing light on the safeguarding of privacy. Something already known and largely suspected has now become documented by Wikileaks. It seems evident that the CIA is now a state within a state, an entity out of control that has even arrived at the point of creating its own hacking network in order to avoid the scrutiny of the NSA and other agencies.

    Reading the revelations contained in the documents released by WikiLeaks and adding them to those already presented in recent years by Snowden, it now seems evident that the technological aspect regarding espionage is a specialty in which the CIA, as far as we know, excels. Hardware and software vendors that are complicit — most of which are American, British or Israeli — give the CIA the opportunity to achieve informational full-spectrum dominance, relegating privacy to extinction. Such a convergence of power, money and technology entails major conflicts of interest, as can be seen in the case of Amazon AWS (Amazon's Cloud Service), cloud provider for the CIA, whose owner, Jeff Bezos, is also the owner of The Washington Post. It is a clear overlap of private interests that conflicts with the theoretical need to declare uncomfortable truths without the need to consider orders numbering in the millions of dollars from clients like the CIA.

    While it is just one example, there are thousands more out there. The perverse interplay between media, spy agencies and politicians has compromised the very meaning of the much vaunted democracy of the land of the Stars and Stripes. The constant scandals that are beamed onto our screens now serve the sole purpose of advancing the deep interest of the Washington establishment. In geopolitical terms, it is now more than obvious that the deep state has committed all available means toward sabotaging any dialogue and détente between the United States and Russia. In terms of news, the Wikileaks revelations shed light on the methods used by US intelligence agencies like the CIA to place blame on the Kremlin, or networks associated with it, for the hacking that occurred during the American elections.

    Perhaps this is too generous a depiction of matters, given that the general public has yet to see any evidence of the hacking of the DNC servers. In addition to this, we know that the origin of Podesta’s email revelations stem from the loss of a smartphone and the low data-security measures employed by the chairman of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign. In general, when the 16 US spy agencies blamed Russia for the hacking of the elections, they were never specific in terms of forensic evidence. Simply put, the media, spies and politicians created false accusations based on the fact that Moscow, together with RT and other media (not directly linked to the Kremlin), finally enjoy a major presence in the mainstream media. The biggest problem for the Washington establishment lies in the revelation of news that is counterproductive to the interests of the deep state. RT, Sputnik, this site and many others have diligently covered and reported to the general public every development concerning the Podesta revelations or the hacking of the DNC.

    Now what is revealed through Wikileaks’ publications in Vault 7 is the ability of a subsection of the CIA, known as Umbrage, to use malware, viruses, trojans and other cyber tools for their own geopolitical purposes. The CIA’s Umbrage collects, analyzes and then employs software created variously from foreign security agencies, cyber mafia, private companies, and hackers in general. These revelations become particularly relevant when we consider the consequences of these actions. The main example can be seen in the hacking of the DNC. For now, what we know is that the hacking – if it ever occurred – is of Russian origin. This does not mean at all that the Kremlin directed it. It could actually be very much the opposite, its responsibility falling into the category of a cyber false-flag. One thing is for sure: all 16 US intelligence agencies are of the view that “the Russians did it”. That said, the methods used to hack vulnerabilities cannot be revealed, so as to limit the spread of easily reusable exploits on systems, such as the one that hosted the DNC server. It is a great excuse for avoiding the revelation of any evidence at all.

    So, with little information available, independent citizens are left with very little information on which to reliably form an opinion on what happened. There is no evidence, and no evidence will be provided to the media. For politicians and so-called mainstream journalists, this is an acceptable state of affairs. What we are left with instead is blind faith in the 16 spy agencies. The problem for them is that what WikiLeaks revealed with Vault 7 exposes a scenario that looks more likely than not: a cyber false-flag carried out by the Central Intelligence Agency using engineered malware and viruses made in Russia and hypothetically linking them back to hacking networks in Russia. In all likelihood, it looks like the Democrats’ server was hacked by the CIA with the clear objective of leaving Russian fingerprints and obvious traces to be picked up by other US agencies.

    In this way, it becomes easier to explain the unique views of all 16 spy agencies. Thus, it is far more likely that the CIA intentionally left fake Russian fingerprints all over the DNC server, thereby misleading other intelligence agencies in promoting the narrative that Russia hacked the DNC server. Of course the objective was to create a false narrative that could immediately be picked up by the media, creating even more hysteria surrounding any rapprochement with Russia.

    Diversification of computer systems.

    The revelations contained in the Wikileaks vault 7 (less than 1 % of the total data in Wikileaks’ possession has been released to date) have caused a stir, especially by exposing the astonishing complicity between hardware and software manufacturers, often intentionally creating backdoors in their products to allow access by the CIA and NSA. In today’s digital environment, all essential services rely on computer technology and connectivity. These revelations are yet more reason why countries targeted by Washington, like China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, should get rid of European and American products and invest in reducing technological dependence on American products in particular.

    The People's Republic has already started down this track, with the replacement of many network devices with local vendors like Huawei in order to avoid the type of interference revealed by Snowden. Russia has been doing the same in terms of software, even laying the groundwork to launch of its own operating system, abandoning American and European systems. In North Korea, this idea was already put into practice years ago and is an excellent tool for deterrence for external interference. In more than one computer security conference, US experts have praised the capabilities of the DPRK to isolate its Internet network from the rest of the world, allowing them to have strong safety mechanisms. Often, the only access route to the DPRK systems are through the People's Republic of China, not the easiest way for the CIA or NSA to infiltrate a protected computer network.

    An important aspect of the world in which we live today involves information security, something all nations have to deal with. At the moment, we still live in a world in which the realization of the danger and effect of hacking attacks are not apparent to many. On the other hand, militarily speaking, the diversification and rationalization of critical equipment in terms of networks and operability (smartphones, laptops, etc) has already produced strong growth in non-American and European manufacturers, with the aim of making their systems more secure.

    This strengthening of technology also produces deleterious consequences, such as the need for intelligence agencies to be able to prevent the spread of data encryption so as to always enjoy access to any desired information. The birth of the Tor protocol, the deployment of Bitcoin, and apps that are more and more encrypted (although the WikiLeaks documents have shown that the collection of information takes place on the device before the information is encrypted) are all responses to an exponential increase in the invasion of privacy by federal or American government entities.

    We live in a world that has an enormous dependence on the Internet and computer technology. The CIA over the years has focused on the ability to make sure vulnerable systems are exploited as well as seeking out major security flaws in consumer products without disclosing this to vendors, thereby taking advantage of these security gaps and leaving all consumers with a potential lack of security. Slowly, thanks to the work and courage of people like Snowden and Assange, the world is beginning to understand how important it is to keep personal data under control and prevent access to it by third parties, especially if they are state actors. In the case of national security, the issue is expanded exponentially by the need to protect key and vital infrastructure, considering how many critical services operate via the Internet and rely on computing devices.

    The wars of the future will have a strong technological basis, and it is no coincidence that many armed forces, primarily the Russian and Chinese, have opted in recent years to training troops, and conducting operations, not completely relying on connectivity. No one can deny that in the event of a large-scale conflict, connectivity is far from guaranteed. One of the major goals of competing nations is to penetrate the military security systems of rival nations and be able to disarm the internal networks that operates major systems of defense and attack.

    The Wikileaks revelations are yet another confirmation of how important it is to break the technological unipolar moment, if it may be dubbed this way, especially for nations targeted by the United States. Currently Washington dictates the technological capacities of the private and government sectors of Europe and America, steering their development, timing and methods to suit its own interests. It represents a clear disadvantage that the PRC and its allies will inevitably have to redress in the near future in order to achieve full security for its vital infrastructure.

  • China Suffers Worst Start To A Year For Retail Sales Growth Since 2002

    With its credit impulse wearing off (and inflation spikes stalling any hopes of renewed stimulus anytime soon), it appears China’s always-happy consumer is not so happy as 2017 begins.

     

    Against expectations of a 10.6% year-over-year gain in year-to-date cumulative retail sales, February saw just a 9.5% rise – the weakest February since 2002.

    Presumably there is some lunar-new-year adjustment that will rescue this terrible print from its 15 year lows but we note once again that every one of the 37 analysts over-estimated (or forgot to read the calendar).

    This was a 4 standard deviation miss…

  • China Prepares Countermeasures Against South Korea Missile Shield

    The recent deployment by South Korea of the controversial US-made Terminal High Altitude Area ­Defence (THAAD) anti-missile system in response to potential ballistic threats from North Korea, has led to a furious response by China, whose first-strike ability would be compromised under the existing military configuration.  And as BBC reports, “the deployment in South Korea of the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system has been slammed by Beijing. Now the Chinese Communist Party is calling on its people to embrace their ill will towards their neighbours” and notes that as anti South-Korea fever sweep China, local school students chant “Boycott Sth Korea!”, and smash South Korean appliances as the “communist Party unleashes anti-Korea spirit.”

    However, while eliciting up a traditional nationalistic response by China was to be expected, what is more troubling is that according to the South China Morning Post, China is set to deploy anti-radar countermeasures which will neutralize the South Korean THAAD. The THAAD system consists of a sophisticated radar and interceptor missiles designed to spot and knock out incoming ballistic missiles.

    Speaking to retired PLA general Wang Hongguang, the SCMP reports that China knew it might not be able to stop Seoul deploying a US anti-missile system “and was prepared to counter with its own anti-radar equipment.” The comments came as a South Korean court’s decision to uphold the impeachment of former president Park Geun-hye had fanned hopes Seoul might put plans for the Terminal High Altitude Area ­Defence system on hold.  Park supported the installation of the system to help protect South Korea against threats from North Korea, which Beijing says can peer through China’s defences. However, such a de-escalation does not appear to be imminent.

    Wang, former deputy commander of the Nanjing Military Region, said China could not take the chance the next South Korean president would change policy and roll back the deployment, and added that Beijing had measures in place to neutralize THAAD’s radars.

    We will complete our deployment before THAAD begins operations. There is no need to wait for two months [before the election of the next South Korean president],” he said on the sidelines of the political sessions in Beijing. “We already have such equipment in place. We just have to move it to the right spot.”

    Going even further, Yue Gang, a military commentator and former People’s Liberation Army colonel, said China could either destroy THAAD or neutralise it. However, he hedged by adding that “destroying [THAAD] should only be an option during wartime.” However, China could and would interfere with the system’s functions through electromagnetic technology, he said. Yue said an ideal place to install the Chinese equipment was on the Shandong peninsula on the country’s east coast, opposite South Korea.

    Quoted by SCMP, Fu Qianshao, an aviation equipment expert with the PLA Air Force, said China could also send planes – manned or unmanned – to fly close to THAAD to interfere with its radar signals. All the country’s armed forces had the capacity to interfere with radar signals, Fu said.

    Wang said China’s chief concern was not just with South Korea’s deployment of the American system but also the United States’ broader potential to contain the region in a sophisticated web of missile defence systems in Japan, Singapore, the Philippines and even Taiwan.

    Stated differently, the ongoing diplomatic escalation between China and South Korea over THAAD is really just China lashing out against the ongoing interefence by the US, which seeks to blanket its allies in the region in a mesh that would eliminate China’s tactical first strike advantage, in the process putting the precariouar nuclear balance of power in the region in jeopardy, the same way that the deployment of the US Aegis ashore anti-missile shielf system in Eastern Europe has put Russia on edge, as it too, has lost its first strike capabilities, if only for now.  The question, for both China and Russia, is what deterrence they will unveil in response, as a “game theoretical” layout in which two nuclear-armed superpowers suddenly finds themselves questioning their offensive supriority never leads to favorable outcomes, at least in (game) theory.

  • 12 Million Americans Are About To Get An Artificial Boost To Their FICO Scores

    Back in August 2014, we reported that in what appeared a suspicious attempt to boost the pool of eligible, credit-worthy mortgage recipients, Fair Isaac, the company behind the crucial FICO score that determines every consumer’s credit rating, “will stop including in its FICO credit-score calculations any record of a consumer failing to pay a bill if the bill has been paid or settled with a collection agency. The San Jose, Calif., company also will give less weight to unpaid medical bills that are with a collection agency.” In doing so, the company would “make it easier for tens of millions of Americans to get loans.” Stated simply, the definition of the all important FICO score, the most important number at the base of every mortgage application, was set for an “adjustment” which would push it higher for millions of Americans.

     

    As the WSJ said at the time, the changes are expected to boost consumer lending, especially among borrowers shut out of the market or charged high interest rates because of their low scores. “It expands banks’ ability to make loans for people who might not have qualified and to offer a lower price [for others],” said Nessa Feddis, senior vice president of consumer protection and payments at the American Bankers Association, a trade group.” Perhaps the thinking went that if you a borrower has defaulted once, they had learned your lesson and will never do it again. Unfortunately, empirical studies have shown that that is not the case.

    Now, nearly three years later, in the latest push to artificially boost FICO scores, the WSJ reports that “many tax liens and civil judgments soon will be removed from people’s credit reports, the latest in a series of moves to omit negative information from these financial scorecards. The development could help boost credit scores for millions of consumers, but could pose risks for lenders” as FICO scores remain the only widely accepted method of quantifying any individual American’s credit risk, and determine how much consumers can borrow for a new house or car as well as determine their credit-card spending limit

    The transformation is already in proces as the three major credit-reporting firms, Equifax, Experian and TransUnion, recently decided to remove tax-lien and civil-judgment data starting around July 1, according to the Consumer Data Industry Association, a trade group that represents them. The firms will remove the adverse data if they don’t include a complete list of a person’s name, address, as well as a social security number or date of birth, and since most liens and judgments don’t include all three or four, the effect will be like wiping the slate clean for millons of Americans. This change will apply to new tax lien and civil-judgment data that are added to credit reports as well as existing data on the reports.

    Civil judgments include cases in which collection firms take borrowers to court over an unpaid debt. Ankush Tewari, senior director of credit-risk assessment at LexisNexis Risk Solutions, says that nearly all judgments will be removed and about half of tax liens will be removed from credit reports as a result of the changed approach. He says LexisNexis will continue to offer the data directly to lenders.

     

    In addition, if public court records aren’t checked for updates on lien and judgment information at least every 90 days, they will have to be removed from credit reports.

    The outcome of this change is clear: it “will make many people who have these types of credit-report blemishes look more creditworthy.

    The WSJ notes that the unusual move by the influential firms comes partially in response to regulatory concerns. The three reporting bureaus rarely tinker with the information that goes on credit reports and that lenders consult to gauge consumers’ ability and willingness to pay back debts.

    The regulatory push to boost America’s creditworthiness started at the top, under the guise of improving data tracking and collection:

    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau earlier this month released a report citing problems it found while examining credit bureaus and changes it is requiring. Issues the agency cited included improving standards for public-records data by using better identity-matching criteria and updating records more frequently.

     

    Inaccurate information on credit reports, especially if it is negative information, can derail consumers from being able to gain access to credit and even lead to other setbacks like not being able to rent an apartment or get a job.

     

    One in five consumers has an error in at least one of their three major credit reports, according to a 2013 Federal Trade Commission study mandated by Congress. The three credit bureaus received around eight million requests disputing information on credit reports in 2011, according to the CFPB.

    It won’t be the first time such an exercise is conducted: in 2015, as part of a settlement with the NY AG, credit-reporting firms were already prompted to remove several negative data sets from reports. These included non-loan related items that were sent to collections firms, such as gym memberships, library fines and traffic tickets. The firms also will have to remove medical-debt collections that have been paid by a patient’s insurance company from credit reports by 2018.

    What happens next?

    Such changes might help borrowers and could spur additional lending, possibly boosting economic activity. But it could potentially increase risks for lenders who might not be able to accurately assess borrowers’ default risk.

     

    Consumers with liens or judgments are twice as likely to default on loan payments, according to LexisNexis Risk Solutions, a unit of RELX Group that supplies public-record information to the big three credit bureaus and lenders.

    For lenders and credit card companies it means one thing: chaos, and the potential of substantial future charge offs: “It’s going to make someone who has poor credit look better than they should,” said John Ulzheimer, a credit specialist and former manager at Experian and credit-score creator FICO.

    “Just because the lien or judgment information has been removed and someone’s score has improved doesn’t mean they’ll magically become a better credit risk.”

    * * *

    So how many US consumers will be impacted by this change? The answer: up to 12 million.

    As the WSJ points out “removing this information from credit reports also will lead to changes in people’s credit scores. Roughly 12 million U.S. consumers, or about 6% of the total U.S. population that has FICO credit scores, will see increases in those scores as a result of this change, according to the company that created the FICO system, which is used by lenders in most U.S. consumer underwriting decisions.”

    While for many of these consumers, the score increase will be relatively modest, as FICO projects that just under 11 million people will experience a score improvement of less than 20 points, that should be more than sufficient to go out and buy that brand new $60,000 BMW with an 80-month, $0 down, 0% interest rate loan.

    Sarcasm aside, ultimately lenders will still be able to check public records on their own to find this information, and since FICO scores will now be “adjusted” just like GAAP, the likely outcome will be the transition of credit vetting in house, as Fair Isaac loses credibility within the loan system, potentially leading to even more draconian credit terms, even if it comes at substantial expense to US-based lenders.

  • Legal Marijuana's Social Impact On Colorado

    Via ConvergEx's Nicholas Colas,

    Believe it or not, there was no change in the number of marijuana users in Colorado between 2014 and 2015 after legalization of the sale of recreational cannabis went into effect. At least that’s what Colorado’s Retail Marijuana Public Advisory Committee reported in their latest research on the effects of marijuana on public health. They also found that calls to poison centers for exposure to marijuana and emergency room visits continue to fall. The State Department of Public Safety also reported that the number of marijuana arrests nearly halved, down by 46% between 2012 and 2014. Moreover, Colorado has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country, and the legal marijuana industry has certainly helped by adding 18,000 new full-time jobs in 2015 according to the Marijuana Policy Group. Perhaps the most significant benefit to the state is tax receipts, as Colorado received $198.5 million in tax revenue last year from marijuana sales of $1.3 billion.

     

    Bottom line, retail marijuana legalization has had its fair share of pros and cons in Colorado, but it’s not been nearly as bad as critics had forecast.

    Note from Nick:  Jessica’s note about the legal pot business get a lot of attention and comments from readers and today she looks at the social impact of legalization on the state of Colorado.  With other states – most notably California – voting to legalize marijuana, this will become a national issue in coming years.  Read on for the details.

    We’ve written several notes about the success of legal recreational marijuana businesses in Colorado over the past few years, but our most frequently asked question is: what are the social costs? Many people have heartbreaking stories about the effects drugs have had on their loved ones and with one in five Americans now living in a state where retail cannabis is legal, it’s important to understand the social side of the business as well.

    Colorado has a few years of useful data to unpeel the layers given that stores have sold retail marijuana there since January 2014. We put together a list of different angles from which to measure some social ramifications and benefits of legalization. Here’s what we found:

    Homelessness

    Colorado experienced the third largest increase in the total number of homeless people last year (721 people), following California (4,504) and Washington (1,374). It also had an increase of 231 homeless veterans from 2015 to 2016, marking the largest gain of any state. There were only seven other states with a rise in homeless veterans. HUD link: https://www.hudexchange.info/resources/documents/2016-AHAR-Part-1.pdf

    So what’s going on there?  The ability for dispensaries to sell recreational marijuana as of January 2014 has certainly entered the debate. A few points:

    • Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper spoke about homelessness and the unintended consequences of legalizing marijuana in his annual State of the State address in January 2017: “There’s no question that marijuana and other drugs–in combination with mental illness or other disabling conditions–are essential contributors to chronic homelessness.” He also said “tax revenue from marijuana sales can and should be used to help those who fall through the cracks including hundreds of homeless vets.”

     

    Speech link: https://www.colorado.gov/governor/news/gov-hickenlooper-delivers-annual-…

     

    • In a Denver Post article, spokesman Daniel Warvi for the Department of Veterans Affairs said “a perfect storm” of circumstances is pushing many veterans onto the streets. Veterans are coming to Colorado planning to get a job in the burgeoning legal marijuana industry or because Colorado’s job market is booming… But when they arrive in Colorado, the jobs many of them qualify for don’t pay enough to cover rent, and they learn they must be a Colorado resident for a year before getting a cannabis-related job.”

     

    Here’s the full article, which also includes some vet’s experiences: http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/18/colorado-spike-homeless-veterans/

     

    • Bottom line, many people moved to Colorado after retail marijuana was legalized, and some may have not had the skills to find a job. Granted there are other factors to consider, such as a low unemployment rate and widespread access to health care. The state’s population grew by 101,000 in 2015, marking the first time it crossed the 100,000 threshold since 2001, for example. In another Denver Post article, state demographer Elizabeth Garner said net migration made up about two-thirds of the gain. Link: http://www.denverpost.com/2015/12/22/colorados-population-jumped-by-1010…

     

    Correlation does not equal causation, of course. With that said, contributing factors in the debate have included homeless people moving to Colorado because they can legally buy marijuana or individuals moving to the state with the hopes of getting a marijuana related job and not finding one in time before they become homeless. Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/27/marijuana-legal-homeless…

    Crime and Enforcement

    We zeroed in on the “Mile-High City” of Denver since it’s the national epicenter of legal recreational marijuana.  Denver’s percentage of statewide marijuana sales was 47% in 2014 and 41% in 2015, and there are more than 1,000 marijuana business licenses outstanding. The city also started tracking marijuana-related crimes reported to the Denver Police Department in 2012. Here are some more stats from their 2016 report:

    • The total number of crimes reported to the Denver Police Department that “have a clear connection or relation to marijuana” but don’t “have an incidental relation to marijuana” increased from 256 in 2012 to 270 in 2015 (down from 293 in 2014). Note that it also does not include “violations restricting the possession, sale, and/or cultivation of marijuana.” Marijuana-related crime makes up less than 1% of overall crime in Denver and fell from 0.58% in 2012 to 0.42% in 2015.

     

    • Most marijuana-related crime is simply people breaking into stores to get the drug. There were 191 industry-related crimes in 2012 (0.43% of total crime in Denver) versus 192 in 2015 (0.42%) compared to 65 non-industry crimes in 2012 (0.15%) and 78 in 2015 (0.12%). In 2015, “burglary or attempted burglary accounted for 64% of Marijuana Industry-Related Crime. Larceny (theft) accounted for another 11% of all Marijuana Industry-Related Crime.”

     

    • The report notes the rarity of violent crimes – including homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault and arson – related to the licensed marijuana industry. In 2015, there were 8, or “one violent crime related to the marijuana industry for every 1,357 violent crimes overall.”

     

    As for arrests, the Denver PD only started collecting the data in 2014. There was an 11% increase to 1,666 marijuana related arrests from 2014 to 2015, including the unlawful distribution/cultivation/possession of marijuana or a marijuana concentrate, public display or consumption of marijuana, and business license violations.

     

    For crime in Colorado as a whole, the State Department of Public Safety put out a 143-page report last year. They found that the number of marijuana arrests dropped by 46% between 2012 and 2014, and that “marijuana possession arrests, which make up the majority of all marijuana arrests, were nearly cut in half (-47%).” Marijuana accounted for 6% of all arrests in 2012 and 3% in 2014.

     

    Report: http://cdpsdocs.state.co.us/ors/docs/reports/2016-SB13-283-Rpt.pdf

     

    • In terms of driving under the influence of marijuana, DUIDs rose 10% to 73 in Denver during 2015, but “represent a very small portion (2.8%) of overall impaired driving arrests.”

     

    • One last important point from the report: “the implication of a legal commercial market is not that enforcement needs will necessarily decrease.” In fact, “the opposite is true in the short run” as “the black market will not simply vanish” and “people will continue pushing the boundaries and operating outside of the rules.” Criminals still purchase marijuana in bulk from Colorado and sell it across the U.S., for example. Therefore, the “Denver Police Department Marijuana Team’s work around illegal marijuana has increased significantly over the last couple of years.”

     

    To put this in perspective, the Denver Police Department (DPD) crime lab processed 524 pounds of marijuana in 2013. After retail sales went into effect in January 2014, this figure grew to 9,504 pounds in 2014 and 4,738 pounds in 2015. Those numbers don’t even include the DPD’s involvement in other operations when marijuana was processed by the Drug Enforcement Agency. The DPD actually increased the number of officers working on  the department’s marijuana team to also monitor home grows to ensure people aren’t developing more plants than is lawful.

     

    Link to report:

     

    https://www.denvergov.org/content/dam/denvergov/Portals/782/documents/An…

     

    Link to graphics: https://www.denvergov.org/content/denvergov/en/denver-marijuana-informat…

    Unemployment

    Colorado is one of five states with the lowest unemployment rates in the country at 3.0% as of December. This represents a fall from 7.9% in 2012 when it ranked 31st. Of course opportunities working for marijuana-related businesses didn’t make up for the whole decline, but it did help. According to the Marijuana Policy Group in a report published last October:

    • The legal marijuana industry in Colorado added over 18,000 new full-time jobs in 2015 and spurred $2.4 billion in economic activity.

     

    • Since it’s a “highly-localized industry” it “generates more local output and employment per dollar spent than almost any Colorado sector” except for government program spending. For example, “each dollar spent on retail marijuana generates $2.40 in state output” compared to $1.88 per dollar for the general retail trade.

     

    Link: http://www.mjpolicygroup.com/pubs/MPG%20Impact%20of%20Marijuana%20on%20C…

     

    On the flip side, even though marijuana is legal on a state level, individuals who use can still fail their employers’ drug tests since it’s illegal on a Federal level. Quest Diagnostics released a report in 2014 that showed the “percentage of positive drug tests among American workers has increased for the first time in more than a decade,” mostly due to marijuana and amphetamines. This followed several years of declines. After recreational marijuana was legalized in Colorado and Washington, marijuana positivity rose by double digits in both states during 2013 compared to a 6.2% increase nationally. The study notes that both states also experienced large increases before legalization so the trend was already underway.

     

    Link: http://newsroom.questdiagnostics.com/2014-09-11-Workforce-Drug-Test-Posi…

     

    • Some employers are removing marijuana from pre-employment drug tests. Sixty-two percent of businesses test for drugs in Colorado compared to 77% in 2014, according to the Mountain States Employers Council. This may be due to the state’s low employment rate rather than friendlier views, however. See here: http://www.denverpost.com/2017/02/03/colorado-business-pot-drug-tests/

    Public Health and Marijuana Use

    The Retail Marijuana Public Advisory Committee has monitored marijuana and its impact on public health in Colorado over the past few years and just published another expansive report on the topic. Here are some of their key findings:

    • Past-month marijuana users: There was no change in past-month marijuana use between 2014 and 2015. Two different Federal surveys showed 13% and 17% of Colorado adults said they use cannabis compared to the national average of 8%. Marijuana use over the past month was highest for males (17%) and individuals aged 18 to 25 (26%).

     

    • Daily marijuana use vs tobacco and alcohol: 6% of adults reported using marijuana daily or near-daily compared to daily or near daily alcohol (22%) and tobacco use (16%).

     

    • Teen use: 21% of Colorado high school students said they had used marijuana in 2015, roughly similar to 20% in 2013 before stores first started selling retail cannabis. It’s also about in line with the national average of about 17% and 22% according to two different surveys.

     

    • Marijuana in Colorado homes with children: 8% of adults with children aged 1 to 14 had “marijuana or marijuana products in or around the home.” In “82% of these homes, marijuana was stored safely, while in 18% it was potentially stored unsafely.” The report also said “it is estimated that approximately 16,000 homes in Colorado had children 1-14 years old with possible exposure to secondhand marijuana smoke or vapor in the home.”

     

    • Hospital visits and poison center calls: Calls to poison centers for exposure to marijuana “appear to be decreasing since 2015, including unintentional exposures in children aged 0-8 years.” Moreover, “the overall rate of emergency department visits with marijuana-related billing codes dropped 27 percent from 2014 to 2015 (2016 data is not available yet).” One point of concern is marijuana edibles, however, as they were “involved in about 40% of marijuana exposure calls to the poison center” and twice as common as calls about smokeable marijuana for children aged 0-8.

     

    Link: https://www.colorado.gov/cdphe/marijuana-health-report

    Tax Receipts

    Tax revenue from marijuana sales is one of the most significant benefits of legalization for Colorado. The state received $198.5 million in tax revenue last year from marijuana sales of $1.3 billion. The first $40 million each year goes to public school construction projects.  The balance includes funding for everything from educational programs about the drug and substance abuse prevention grants to pesticide control and inspection services. This article provides an excellent breakdown for more details: https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/289613

  • "2017 Will Be A Tipping Point" – Why Some Think This Is The Next "Big Short"

    One week ago we reported that "Mega-Bears Smell Blood As Mall REITs Tumble" in which we wrote that "just like 10 years ago, when the "big short" was putting on the RMBX trade, and to a smaller extent, its cousin the CMBX, so now too some are starting to short CMBS through the CMBX. They are betting against securities backed by malls in weaker locations where stores could close in quick succession, triggering debt defaults."

    This morning Bloomberg has followed up our post with a not-so-subtly-titled "Wall Street Has Found Its Next Big Short" in which it writes that "Wall Street speculators are zeroing in on the next U.S. credit crisis: the mall…. It’s no secret many mall complexes have been struggling for years as Americans do more of their shopping online. But now, they’re catching the eye of hedge-fund types who think some may soon buckle under their debts, much the way many homeowners did nearly a decade ago."

    The trade, as we discussed before, is not so much shorting the equities where a persistent threat of a short squeeze has burned the bears on more than one occasion, but going long default risk via CMBX or otherwise shorting the CMBS complex.

    Like the run-up to the housing debacle, a small but growing group of firms are positioning to profit from a collapse that could spur a wave of defaults. Their target: securities backed not by subprime mortgages, but by loans taken out by beleaguered mall and shopping center operators. With bad news piling up for anchor chains like Macy’s and J.C. Penney, bearish bets against commercial mortgage-backed securities are growing.

    To be sure, as we first noted last week and as Bloomberg confirms, the activity surrounding CMBS shorting has soared:

    In recent weeks, firms such as Alder Hill Management — an outfit started by protégés of hedge-fund billionaire David Tepper — have ramped up wagers against the bonds, which have held up far better than the shares of beaten-down retailers. By one measure, short positions on two of the riskiest slices of CMBS surged to $5.3 billion last month — a 50 percent jump from a year ago.

     

    The trade itself is similar to those that Michael Burry and Steve Eisman made against the housing market before the financial crisis, made famous by the book and movie “The Big Short.” Often called credit protection, buyers of the contracts are paid for CMBS losses that occur when malls and shopping centers fall behind on their loans. In return, they pay monthly premiums to the seller (usually a bank) as long as they hold the position.

     

    This year, traders bought a net $985 million contracts that target the two riskiest types of CMBS, according to the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. That’s more than five times the purchases in the prior three months.

    Further, based on fundamentals, the trade indeed appears justified: "Sold in 2012, the mortgage bonds have a higher concentration of loans to regional malls and shopping centers than similar securities issued since the financial crisis. And because of the way CMBS are structured, the BBB- and BB rated notes are the first to suffer losses when underlying loans go belly up."

    “These malls are dying, and we see very limited prospect of a turnaround in performance,” according to a January report from Alder Hill, which began shorting the securities. “We expect 2017 to be a tipping point.”

     

    Cracks have started to appear. Prices on the BBB- pool of CMBS have slumped from roughly 96 cents on the dollar in late January to 87.08 cents last week, index data compiled by Markit show.

    For now, there is little hope of a recovery on the horizon as more and more retailers continue to fail, leaving even more vacant, and thus non-rent collecting, mall space.

    Just this morning, Gordmans Stores, the century-old discount department store chain, filed for bankruptcy with plans to liquidate its inventory and assets. According to Bloomberg, the company, which posted losses in five of the past six quarters, listed total debt of $131 million in Chapter 11 papers filed Monday in Nebraska federal court. Gordmans said in a statement that it has an agreement with Tiger Capital Group and Great American Group “for the sale in liquidation of the inventory and other assets of Gordmans’ retail stores and distribution centers,” subject to court approval or a better offer.

    Omaha, Nebraska-based Gordmans, which operates over 100 stores in 22 states and employs about 5,100 people, is the latest victim in a retail industry suffering from sluggish mall traffic and a move by shoppers to the internet. 

     

    The shift has been especially rough on department stores, including regional chains like Gordmans that once enjoyed strong customer loyalty, but even national concerns like Sears Holdings Corp. and Macy’s Inc. have had to close hundreds of locations to cope with the slump

    Gordmans, founded in 1915 by Russian immigrant Sam Richman, was acquired by PE firm Sun Capital in 2008 which took it public two years later. Funds managed by Sun Capital hold about 49.6% of Gordmans’ equity, according to a court filing. Growth slowed in 2014, and losses began to mount. Same-store sales fell more than 9 percent in the most recently reported quarter. The company announced job cuts in January, citing the “sluggish retail environment.”

    “Like many other apparel and retail companies, the debtors have fallen victim in recent months to adverse macro-economic trends, especially a general shift away from brick-and-mortar to online retail channels, a shift in consumer demographics, and expensive leases,” Chief Financial Officer James B. Brown said in court papers.

    While Gordman's decline was long in the making, its financial conditions deteriorated rapidly in March, when vendors began to refuse to ship new inventory, Brown said. After entertaining various offers, the company concluded that its best recourse was the liquidation deal with Tiger and Great American.

    To be sure, Gordman's is hardly the last retailer to shutter and while many of its comps have yet to default, the pain is tangible: retailers had one of the worst Christmas-shopping seasons in memory, J.C. Penney said in February it plans to shutter up to 140 stores. That echoed Macy’s decision last year to close some 100 outlets and Sears’s move to shut about 150 locations.

    Meanwhile, delinquencies on retail loans have risen to 6.5%, one percent higher than CMBS as a whole, according to Wells Fargo.

    * * *

    So does that mean that shorting malls is now accepted as the next "big short"? Some are not convinced.

    Take for example Credit Suisse who said last month non-CMBS specialists – perhaps an apt name is "CMBS tourists" – are helping drive the recent run-up in demand for credit protection. That raises concern too many people are chasing the same trade. Of course, it may simply be that Credit Suisse analysts are being paid in CMBS

    The short feels crowded to us,” said Matthew Weinstein, principal at Axonic Capital, a hedge fund that specializes in structured products. “If these defaults start happening soon, the short will work, but if the defaults do not occur quickly, the first guy out could drive the market meaningfully higher.”

    Others, such as TCW, say CMBS sold in 2012 and 2013 might fall as low as 20 cents on the dollar, however the firm isn’t betting against them because it’s hard to know when the wagers might pay off. "

    Plus, the contracts aren’t cheap. It costs about 3 percent a year to short BBB- rated securities and 5 percent to bet against BB notes, plus an upfront fee to put on the trade.

     

    Consequently, it’s “more speculative than it is the next big short,” according to Sorin Capital Management’s Tom Digan.

    Whatever the case, here’s what the endgame might look like. About two hours north of Manhattan, in Kingston, New York, stands the Hudson Valley Mall. It used to house J.C. Penney and Macy’s. But both then left, gutting the complex. In January, the mall was sold for less than 20 percent of the original $50 million loan. Mortgage-bond holders exposed to the loan were partly wiped out.

    “When a mall starts to falter, the end result is typically binary in nature,” said Matt Tortorello, a senior analyst at Kroll Bond Rating Agency. “It’s either the mall is going to survive or it’s going take a substantial loss."

    * * *

    Ultimately, whether or not this is indeed that next big short as we first hinted one week ago, or the skeptics will be proven right, will depend on one thing: access to capital. Ironically, it was that variable that ended up crushing OPEC's plans to wipe out shale, which despite a dramatic downturn in oil prices managed to obtain enough funding and capital from generous, yield-starved creditors, to survive the past year while technological advances caught up and pushe the breakeven point to $50, or in many cases lower.

    For now, banks and hedge funds have proven far less willing to be "last resort" sources of distressed funding to retailers, and malls, (perhaps with the notable exception of Sears where Eddie Lampert has expressed a desire to go down with the sinking ship) both of which continue to deteriorate as the US consumer is either tapped out, or simply resorts to online retailers like Amazon. Should that not change any time soon, and should the cash flow profile of retailers continue to deteriorate, it is virtually assured that those who are now rushing into the next "big short" will be rewarded.

    Finally, as we noted last week, here is a brief note from Horseman Capital's Russell Clark laying out the latest dangers inherent in the mall space:

    MALL RATS

    Shopping mall REITS have been a fantastic investment over the years. Not only have they provided investors with large capital gains, they have also typically offered above market dividend yields. My interpretation of the REIT model is that the operator collects rents from a diverse number of retailers. This is then passed on to the end investors after costs and financing. The REIT manager reduces risk by diversifying the retailers paying rent, and by also spreading the risk geographically. If the REIT manager can acquire more real estate assets at a yield higher than what it needs to pay out as dividend yield, then the REIT can issue more shares and grow indefinitely. Mall REITs have generally done well, except during the financial crisis.

    However, it seems to me that North America could well have too many shopping malls. On a per capita basis, the US has twice the space of Australia and 5 times that in the UK.

    One source of REITs revenue growth comes from acquiring more malls. Intriguingly we have started to see volumes of real estate transactions for shopping malls fall. This means that the number of transactions to buy or sell properties is beginning to decline. Last time this happened, rents began to fall a year later. Perhaps it’s a sign that buyers believe rents have some downside risk?

    Many people in the market are aware of the problems that the large department stores in the US are currently facing, and their resultant plans to retrench. This affects two of the largest shopping mall REITs that have the department stores as tenants. The reality is that the shopping mall REITs charge extremely low rents to the department stores. The large shopping malls use the department stores to lure traffic, and then make their money from higher rents charged to speciality retailers. Often the per square foot rent of the specialty retailer can be 30 times or higher that paid by the anchor tenant. Looking at the top 2 shopping mall operators, they disclose their top rent payers. Recent share prices performance of 8 shared tenants has been poor, and management commentary has seeming implied that they may also be looking to reduce store count.

    It should also be pointed out that many tenants have a clause in their lease to reduce rents should an anchor close a store. Thus, even though the loss of rent due to an anchor closing is minimal, the knock-on effect of reduced rents from the remaining tenants is a serious concern for the REITs.

    One of the other problems that shopping mall REITs face is that the size that the large department stores take up is more than 400 million square feet. The largest and most successfully specialty retailer is TJ Maxx which currently has 100 million square feet. It is difficult to see any single retailer quickly being able to fill the space made vacant by department store closures.

    Back in the lead up to the financial crisis we found that the share prices of REITs and their tenants were very closely related. Recently we have seen tenants share price weaken again, but REITS remain relatively strong.

    Investors are advised to exercise caution with the shopping mall REITs

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Today’s News 13th March 2017

  • The Empire Should Be Placed On Suicide Watch

    Via The Saker,

    In all the political drama taking place in the USA as a result of the attempted color revolution against Trump, the bigger picture sometimes gets forgotten. And yet, this bigger picture is quite amazing, because if we look at it we will see irrefutable signs that the Empire in engaged in some bizarre slow motion of seppuku and the only mystery left is who, or what, will serve as the Empire’s kaishakunin (assuming there will be one).

    I would even argue that the Empire is pursuing a full-spectrum policy of self-destruction on several distinct levels, with each level contributing the overall sum total suicide. And when I refer to self-destructive behavior I don’t mean long-term issues such as the non-sustainability of the capitalist economic model or the social consequences of a society which not only is unable to differentiate right from wrong, but which now decrees that deviant behavior is healthy and normal. These are what I call “long term walls” into which we will, inevitably, crash, but which are comparatively further away than some “immediate walls”. Let me list a few of these:

    Political suicide: the Neocons’ refusal to accept the election of Donald Trump has resulted in a massive campaign to de-legitimize him. What the Neocons clearly fail to see, or don’t care about, is that by de-legitimizing Trump they are also de-legitimizing the entire political process which brought Trump to power and upon which the United States are built as a society. As a direct result from this campaign, not only are millions of Americans becoming disgusted with the political system they were indoctrinated to believe in, but internationally the notion of “American democracy” is becoming a sad joke.

    And just to make things worse, the US corporate media is finally showing its true face and now unapologetically shows the entire world that not only is it not in any way “fair” or “objective”, but that it is a 100% prostituted propaganda machine which faithfully serves the interests of the US “deep state”.

    A key element of the quasi constant brainwashing of the average American has always been the regular holding of elections. Nevermind that, at least until now, the outcome of these elections made very little difference inside the USA and non at all outside, the goal was never to consult the people – the goal has always been to give the illusion of democracy and people power. Now that the Democrats say that the Russians rigged the elections and the Republicans say that it was the Democrats and their millions of dead voters who tried stealing it, it become rather obvious that these elections were always a joke, a pseudo-democratic “liturgy”, a brainwashing ritual – you name it – but never about anything real.

    The emergence of the concept of 1% can be “credited” to the Obama Administration, since it was during Obama that the entire “Occupy Wall Street” movement took off, but the ultimate unmasking of the viciously evil true face of that 1% must be credited to Hillary with her truly historical confession in which she openly declared that those who oppose her are a “basket of deplorables”. We already knew, thanks to Victoria Nuland, what the AngloZionist leaders thought of the people of Europe, now we know what they think of the people of the USA: exactly the same thing.

    The bottom line is this: I don’t think that the moral authority and political credibility of the USA have ever been lower than today. Decades of propaganda by Hollywood and the official US propaganda machine have now collapsed and nobody buys that counter-factual nonsense anymore.

    Foreign policy suicide: let’s see what options there are to choose from. The Neocons want a war with Russia which the Trump people don’t. The Trump people, however, want, well maybe not a war, although that option is very much on the table, but at least a very serious confrontation with China, North Korea or Iran, and about half of them would also like some kind of confrontation with Russia. There is absolutely nobody, at least at the top, who would dare to suggest that a confrontation or, even worse, a war with China, Iran, North Korea or Russia would be a disaster, a calamity for the USA. In fact, serious people with impressive credentials and a lot of gravitas are discussing these possibilities as if they were real, as it the USA could in some sense prevail. This is laughable. Well, no, it it not. But it would be if it wasn’t so frightening and depressing. The truth is very, very different.

    [Sidebar: While it is probably not impossible for the United States to prevail, in purely military terms, against the DPRK in a war, the potential risks are nothing short of immense. And I don’t mean the risk posed by the North Korean nukes which, apparently, is also quite real. I mean the risk of starting a war against a country which has Seoul within conventional artillery range, an active duty army of well over one million people and 180’000 special forces operators. Let us assume for a second that the DPRK has no air force and no navy and an army composed of only 1M+ soldiers, 21k+ artillery pieces and 180k special forces. How do you propose to deal with that threat? If you have an easy, obvious solution, you have watched too many Hollywood movies. You probably also don’t understand the terrain.]

    But yes, the DPRK also has major wseaknesses and I cannot exclude that the North Korean armed forces would rapidly collapse under a sustained attack by the US and the ROK. I did not say that I believe that this would happen, only that I don’t exclude it. Should that happen, the US might well prevail relatively rapidly, at least in purely military terms. However, please keep in mind that any military operation has to serve a political goal and, in that sense, I cannot imagine any scenario under which the USA would walk away from a war against the DPRK with anything remotely resembling a real “victory”. There is a paraphrase of something Ho Chi Minh allegedly told to the French in the 1940s which I really like. It goes like this:” we kill some of you, you kill a lot of us, and then we win”. That is how a war with the DPRK would probably play out. I call this the “American curse”: Americans are very good at killing people, but they are not good at winning wars. Still, in the case of the DPRK there is at least a possibility of a military victory, even if at a potentially huge cost. With Iran, Russia or China there is no such possibility at all: a war with any of them would be a guaranteed disaster (I wrote about a war in Iran here and about a war with Russia too many times to count). So why is it that even though out of the 4 possible wars, one is a potential disaster and the 3 others are a guaranteed disaster, why is it that these are discussed as if they were potential options?!

    The reason for that can be found in the unique mix of crass ignorance and political cowardice of the entire US political class. First, a lot (most?) of US politicians believe in their own silly propaganda about the US armed forces being “the best” in “the world” (no evidence needed!). But even those who are smart enough to realize that this is a load of baloney which nobody outside the USA still takes seriously, they know that saying that publicly is political suicide. So they pretend, go along, and keep on repetitively spewing the patriotic mantra about “rah, rah, USA, USA, ‘Merica number one, we are the best” etc. Some figure that since the USA spends more on aggression that the rest of the planet combined, that must mean that the US armed forces must be “better” (whatever that means). To the birthplace of “bigger is better” the answer is self-evident. It is also completely wrong.

    Eventually, something crazy inevitably happens. Like in Syria were the State Department had one policy, the Pentagon another and the CIA yet another one. The resulting cognitive dissonance is removed by engaging in classical doublethink: “yes, we screwed up over and over, but we are still the best”. Ironically, that kind of mindset is at the core of the American inability to learn from past mistakes. If the choice is between an honest evaluation of past operations and political expediency, the latter always prevails (at least amongst civilians, US servicemen are often far more capable of self-critical evaluation, especially in ranks up to Colonel and below, the problem here is that civilians and generals rarely listen to them).

    The result is total chaos: the US foreign policy is wholly dependent on the US ability to threaten the use of military force, but the harsh reality is that every country out there which dared to defy Uncle Sam did that only after coming to the conclusion that the US did not have the means to crush it militarily. In other words, only the weak, which are already de-facto US colonies, fear the USA. Or, put differently, the only countries who dare to defy Uncle Sam are the strong ones (that was all quite predictable, but US politicians don’t know about Hegel or dialectics). And just to make it worse, there is no real US foreign policy. What there is is only the sum vector of the different foreign policies desired by various more or less covert “deep state” actors, agencies and individuals. That resulting “sum vector” is inevitably short-term, focuses on a quickfix approach, and unable to take into account any complexity.

    As for the US “diplomacy” it simply doesn’t exist. You don’t need diplomats to deliver demands, bribes, ultimatums and threats. You don’t need educated people. Nor do you need people with any understanding of the “other”. All you need is one arrogant self-enamored bully and one interpreter (since US diplomats don’t speak the local languages either. And why would they?). We saw the most compelling evidence of the total rigor mortis of the US diplomatic corps when 51 US “diplomats” demanded that Obama bomb Syria. The rest of the world could just observe in amazement, sadness, bewilderment and total disgust.

    The bottom line is this: there is no “US diplomacy”. The USA have simply let that entire field atrophy to the point were it ceased to exist. When so many baffled observers try to understand what the US policy in the Ukraine or Syria is, they are making a mistaken assumption – that there is a US foreign policy to being with. I would argue that the US diplomacy slowly and quietly passed away, sometime after James Baker (the last real US diplomat, and a brilliant one at that).

    Military suicide: the US military was never a very impressive one, certainly not when compared to the British, Russian or German ones. But it did have a couple of very strong points including the ability to produce a lot of technical innovations which made it possible to produce new, sometimes quite revolutionary, weapons. And if the US track record on ground operations was rather modest, the US did prove to be a most capable adversary in naval and aerial warfare. I don’t think that it can be denied that for most of the years following WWII the USA had the most powerful and sophisticated navy and airforce in the world. Then, gradually, things started getting worse and worse as the costs of the very expensive ships and aircraft shot through the roof while the quality of the produced systems appeared to be gradually degrading. Weapons systems which looked nothing short of awesome in the lab and test grounds proved to be almost useless once they to to their end user on the battlefield. What happened? How did a country which produced the UH-1 Huey or the F-16 suddenly start producing Apaches and F-35s?! The explanation is painfully simple: corruption.

    Not only did the US military industrial complex bloat beyond any reasonable size, it also cloaked itself in so many layers of secrecy that massive corruption became inevitable. And when I speak of “massive corruption” I am not talking about millions but billions or even trillions. How? Simple – the Pentagon claimed did not have the accounting tools needed to properly account for the missing money and that the money was therefore not really “missing”. Another trick – no bid contracts. Or contracts which cover all the private contractor’s costs, no matter how high or ridiculous. Desert Storm was a bonanza for the MIC, as was 9/11 and the GWOT. Billions of dollars got printed out of thin air, distributed (mostly under the cover of national security), hidden (secrecy) and stolen (by everybody in this entire food chain). The feeding frenzy was so extreme that one of my teachers as SAIS admitted, off the record of course, that he had never seen a weapons system he did not like or which he did not want to purchase. This man, whom I shall not name, was a former director of the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. Yes, you read that right. He was in charge of DIS-armament. You can imagine what the folks in charge of armament (no “dis) were thinking…

    With the stratospheric rise of corruption, the kind of US general which had to be promoted went from fighting men who remembered Vietnam (where they often lost family members, relatives and friends) to ass-kissing little chickenshits” like David Petraeus. In less than half a century US generals went from combat men, to managers, to politicians. And it is against this lackluster background that a rather unimpressive personality like General James Mattis can appear, at least to some, like a good candidate for Secretary of Defense.

    Bottom line: the US armed forces are fantastically expensive and yet not particularly well-trained, well-equipped or well-commanded. And while they still are much more capable than the many European militaries (which are a joke), they are most definitely not the kind of armed forces needed to impose and maintain a world hegemony. The good news for the USA is that the US armed forces are more than adequate to defend the USA against any hypothetical attack. But as the backbone of the Empire – they are close to useless.

    I could list many more types of suicides including an economic suicide, a social suicide, an educational suicide, a cultural suicide and, of course, a moral suicide. But others have already done that elsewhere, and much better than I could ever do myself. So all I will add here is one form of suicide which I believe the AngloZionist Empire has in common with the EU: a

    Suicide by reality denial”: this is the mother and father of all the other forms of suicide – the stubborn refusal to look at reality and accept the fact that “the party is over”. When I see the grim determination of US politicians (very much including the people supporting Trump) to continue to pretend as if the US hegemony was here to stay forever, when I see how they see themselves as the leaders of the world and how they sincerely believe that they need to get involved in every conflict on the planet, I can only come to the conclusion that the inevitable collapse will be painful. To be fair, Trump himself clearly has moments of lucidity about this, for example when he recently declared to Congress

    Free nations are the best vehicle for expressing the will of the people — and America respects the right of all nations to chart their own path. My job is not to represent the world. My job is to represent the United States of America. But we know that America is better off, when there is less conflict — not more.

    These are remarkable words for which Trump truly deserves a standing ovation as they are the closest thing to a formal admission that the United States have given up on the dream of being the World Hegemon and that from now on the US President will no longer represent the interest of trans-national plutocracies but he will represent the interests of the American people. This sort of language is nothing short of revolutionary, whether Trump truly delivers on that or not. Unlike everybody else, Trump does not appear to suffer from “suicide by reality denial” syndrome, but when I look at the people around him (nevermind the prostitutes in Congress) I wonder if he will ever get to act on his personal instincts.

    Trump is clearly the best man in the Trump administration, he seems to have his heart in the right place and, unlike Hillary, he is clearly aware of the fact that the US armed forces are in a terrible shape. But a good heart and common sense are not enough to deal with the Neocons and the US deep state. You also need an iron will and a total determination to crush the opposition. Alas, so far Trump has failed to show either quality. Instead, Trump is trying to show how “tough” a guy he is by declaring that he will wipe out Daesh and by giving the Pentagon 30 days to come up with a plan to do this. Alas (for Trump), there is no way to crush Daesh without working with those who already have boots on the ground: the Iranians, the Russians and the Syrians. It is really that simple. And every American general knows that. Yet everybody is merrily plowing ahead is if there was some kind of possibility for the USA to crush Daesh without establishing a partnership with Russia, Iran and Syria first (Erdogan tried that. It did him no good. Now he is working with Russia and Iran). Will the good folks at the Pentagon find the courage to tell Trump that “no, Mr President, we cannot do that alone, we need the Russians, the Iranians and the Syrians”? I very much doubt it. So, yet again, we are probably going to see a case of reality denial, maybe not a suicidal one, but a significant one nonetheless. Not good.

    Who will be the Empire’s kaishakunin?

    Alexander Solzhenitsyn used to say that all states can be placed on a continuum which ranges from states whose authority is based on their power to states whose power is based on their authority. I think that we can agree that the authority of the USA is pretty close to zero. As for their power, it is still very substantial, but not sufficient to maintain the Empire. It is, however, more than adequate to protect the interests of the United States as a country provided the United States accept that they simply don’t have the means to remain a world hegemon.

    If the Neocons succeed in their attempt to overthrow or, failing that, at paralyzing Trump, then the Empire will have the choice between an endless horror or a horrible end. Since the Neocons don’t really need a war with the DPRK, which they don’t like, but which does not elicit the kind of blind hatred Iran does, my guess is that Iran will be their number one target. Should the AngloZionists succeed in triggering a war between Iran and the Empire, then Iran will end up being the Empire’s kaishakunin. If the crazies fail in their manic attempts at triggering a major war, then the Empire will probably collapse under the pressure of the internal contradictions of the US society. Finally, if Trump and the American patriots who do not want to sacrifice their country for the sake of the Empire succeed in “draining the DC swamp” and finally crack-down hard on the Neocons then a gradual transition from Empire to major power is still possible. But the clock is running out fast.

  • Apple Store Troll Attacks Sean Spicer: "ARE YOU A CRIMINAL AS WELL?"

    A young girl named Shree chimped out on the White House Press Secretary, Sean Spicer, the other day for merely existing. Lacking all of the basic rules of decorum set forth by thousands of years of evolution, this young lady tossed barbarous questions at dear, sweet, Sean — asking him how it felt to work for a treasonous Russian racist fascist bastard, replete with orange tones and idiotic red hats.

    It wasn’t long before Sean tucked tail and ran out of the store — likely to cower underneath his silk sheets for having met face to face with such primordial barbarity.

    BEHOLD THE Troglodyte!

    Shree penned an explanation of sorts for her trespasses — accusing Mr. Spicer of threatening her with his racist ways.

    “Such a great country that allows you to be here.”

    Indeud.

     “Have you helped with the Russia stuff?” “Have you committed treason, too?” “You know you work for a fascist, right?” And, “Do you feel good about lying to the American people.”

    America! Enjoy.
    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

  • 1,000% Returns? Sure, When PIIGS Fly! – by Michael Carino – Greenwich Endeavors

    The world is filled with intelligent people in finance.  Unfortunately, being intelligent doesn’t
    always mean you are smart.  To make sound
    investments, you need to be looking forward and constantly coming to rational
    conclusions.  One has to avoid sheltering
    oneself in a herd of backward focused investors taking comfort in performing in
    line with the masses.  Patting yourself
    on the back as all markets are trending higher and wallowing in ignorant pity
    as markets drop lower saying “who would have saw that coming” is shamefully
    common and accepted.  I bring this up
    because mainstream financial news constantly encourages the belief that markets
    are void of opportunity. Investors must accept 5% expected returns on equities
    in the long-run, right?  Start thinking
    for yourself and you can see some broadly diversified country specific equity
    markets still hold astronomical return potential.  You just have to look where most have been
    conditioned to avoid.

    Markets move with asymmetric skews.  Markets seem to slowly grind higher for a
    protracted cycle as investors begrudgingly invest at higher highs hoping for
    pullbacks that do not materialize.  This
    is due to hyperactive central banks doing all they can to keep economic cycles
    extending longer and high-volume traders and others front running longer
    focused investors.  This is a short-sited
    byproduct of political pressure to keep the good times rolling on for current
    politicians.  What this means is that
    when there is a downturn or recession, it will be a dozy.  Shorter economic cycles ensure the upswing and
    downswing are mild as excesses have difficulty building up.  But these long protracted economic cycles lead
    to many excesses being subsidized.  When
    the downswing comes, the market is in for a protracted difficult period.  Therein you can find significant upside
    potential when a market leaves this protracted down cycle and turns for a long
    ascent higher.

    When these asymmetric down cycles hit, they can be
    devastating and take a long time to form a bottom.  But when those markets do find footing, the
    upside is enticing.  Most developed
    markets hit their downside in 2009 and stayed near those levels for a while.  But as money from central banks started to flow
    and percolate in the system and the wounds from the downturn turned to scars
    and finally forgotten, many of these markets have gone on to reach new highs.  If you invested in these markets at the lows,
    such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2009, you would have made a 300%
    return.  If you talk about making a 300%
    return today, you’ll be dismissed as a traveling snake oil salesman.

    Now I ask you to think of a market that had a similar
    downside to the Dow Jones in 2009 but has not recovered.  The conclusion is obvious: PIIGS!  Yes, that lovely acronym that so negatively
    and recklessly contributed to such a deep correction represents none other than
    Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.  Lambasting such negativity with a cheeky acronym
    encouraged limited liquidity and deep recessions.  Traders and investors had to evacuate those
    markets or pay the price of public humiliation when simply making a value
    trade.  When negative media lasts for so
    long, investors figure it will last forever, forgetting the potential upside
    embedded in these markets.

    This is where you have to think for yourself.  Instead of avoiding a market because other
    investors have no interest or being influenced by the onslaught of negative
    media constantly singing the same tune of dire conditions, take a deep look.  This comes back to my point of intelligent
    people.  Intelligent people can make a
    deeply analytical and compelling argument why to invest in or avoid a market.  Careers have been made with articles and
    speeches about the problems of these countries.  For over a decade, there has been a plethora
    of negative news and a dearth of positive news.  But as these markets finally turn and overcome
    the last of their economic hurdles, first a few, then many intelligent people
    will come out of the woodwork expounding the positive virtues of these markets.
     And taking a deep dive into these
    markets reveals abundant reasons to be ecstatic.  One glaringly compelling reason is that many
    companies trade at deep discounts to book value – some as low as 20% of book
    value!

    Taking a look at these countries, the potential returns if
    the main benchmark equity indices revert to their prior high water mark are:

    Portugal 160%

    Italy 250%

    Ireland 160%

    Greece 1,000%

    Spain 160%

    These countries have overcome their deepest economic hurdles
    and are now positioned to begin their ascension to a long and protracted
    upswing.  Even Greece seems to be less
    than a month or so away from finalizing their debt financing from the Eurozone
    and IMF and having their debt included in the ECB’s quantitative easing program.
     Greece is starting to experience and
    expected to continue to experience what is considered robust GDP growth. The
    latest Industrial production for January 2017 showed growth of 7.2%! This is
    hardly the dire conditions priced into the market. Yes, the proverbial punching
    bag that everyone likes to beat has turned the corner.  I’m not sure what negative news the media will
    focus on next, but soon these countries will be out of vogue.  Just remember: when nurtured and cured for a
    prolonged period, like making prosciutto from a pig, great price appreciation
    can occur.  After curing for almost a decade
    and as these indices recover and show some stellar returns that we have been
    relentlessly told don’t exist, just hang in there.  Those stellar returns are just the beginning.  So keep being intelligent, smart and invest
    looking forward with a PrOGRessive SPIRIT (my positive, cheeky acronym – hope
    it catches on!).

     

    by Michael Carino, 3/1/17

    Michael Carino is the CEO of Greenwich Endeavors, a
    financial service firm, and has been a fund manager and owner for more than 20
    years. If you are smart, you have surmised correctly he is invested in Greek
    equities.

     

    Investment veteran and
    published author, Michael Carino, prophetically called the timing and amplitude
    of the recent move in global bond markets publishing “Global Bond Markets –
    Skydiving Without a Parachute.”  Michael
    has spent the last 25 years managing fixed-income hedge funds and trading of
    over a trillion dollars of investments.  He
    is the CEO of Greenwich Endeavors, a financial service firm.  He feels compelled to get his unique and
    under-reported views on the markets out to the public.  He hopes to assist your readers’ creation of
    wealth and limit your readers’ destruction of wealth.  It’s time a voice contrarian
    to other self-interested, behemoth Investment Managers’ voices are heard.

  • Why Did Silver Fall, Report 12 Mar, 2017

    The question on the lips of everyone who plans to exchange his metal for dollars—widely thought to be money—is why did silver go down? The price of silver in dollar terms dropped from about 18 bucks to about 17, or about 5 percent.

    The facile answer is manipulation. With no need of evidence—indeed with no evidence—one can assert this and not be questioned in the gold and silver communities. We have recently come across a term normally used to describe Leftists and Social Justice Warriors, virtue signaling. One piously declares that one supports the cause, one speaks truth to power, one sticks it to The Man, well you get the idea. The concept of virtue signaling seems equally appropriate to those who sing the chorus on every price drop, “manipulation.”

    Besides, we have peeps in high places in London and New York and Beijing, and they tell us silver is manipulated…

    Actually, we rather prefer to look at data than listen to whispers. What would the data show if demand for physical silver metal was robust and rising while someone sold so many futures contracts that the price of the metal was forced down just about a dollar?

    The basis and cobasis are spreads between physical silver metal and futures. The scenario we just described would collapse the basis and skyrocket the cobasis.

    Is that what happened this week?

    Before we get that, we want to note that crude oil fell from $53.33 last week to $48.49, or -9%. Copper fell from $2.70 to $2.60, or -3.7%. Wheat fell from $4.53 to $4.40, or -2.9%. People miscall this deflation.

    We don’t know whether this will affect the Fed’s seeming commitment to damn the economy, full rate hikes ahead. However, we do know that sentiment bleeds from one speculative asset to another (and in a near-zero interest rate environment, all assets are used by speculators). “If energy, industrial metal, and food are going down, then surely silver should go down too,” seems to be the logic.

    At least this week.

    We are much more interested in the supply and demand fundamentals. We acknowledge that speculators can temporarily move prices—sometimes a lot—but we firmly insist that eventually the market price reverts to the level called for by supply and demand.

    So what happened to those fundamentals? Below, we will show the only true picture of the gold and silver supply and demand. But first, the price and ratio charts.

    The Prices of Gold and Silver
    The Prices of Gold and Silver

    Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. It moved up sharply this week.  If we were chartists, we might note that the ratio seems to be making a series of higher lows since mid-July.

    The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price
    The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price

    For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

    Here is the gold graph.

    The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price
    The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

    As the price of the dollar rose through the week, so did the cobasis. The price of the dollar is the inverse of the price of gold in dollar terms, and allows us to see a clearer picture. It is not gold going anywhere, but the dollar going up and down. The cobasis is our indicator of scarcity.

    While the dollar went up 0.5mg gold, the cobasis went up 24bps. This is the old pattern, rising gold scarcity as the dollar rises. The same happened in farther contracts, to a smaller degree.

    While the market price of gold fell $24, our calculated fundamental price went down only $15. It’s more than $150 over the market price.

    Now let’s look at silver.

    The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price
    The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

    The cobasis in silver actually fell. It didn’t fall a lot, but this drop came in a week when the price fell substantially. This puts the lie to the allegation of manipulation. Selling of futures would push the cobasis up.

    Silver fell because owners of metal decided to sell and/or buyers of physical metal slowed their purchases. We can debate why they did that, but not the meaning of the data.

    Note also the much lower absolute level of the silver cobasis. Silver is -86bps compared to gold at +8bps (a slight temporary backwardation).

    The silver fundamental price also fell, about half as much as the market price. It is now $1.03 over market.

    This means that, while those who need to unload their silver are unhappy, those planning to load up can now exchange the same quantity of Federal Reserve Notes for more silver than last week. With (slightly) better fundamentals too, as last week the fundamental was only $0.87 over market.

    The only question on that front is the trend. For two weeks, the fundamental has become weaker.

    © 2017 Monetary Metals

  • When Spies Are Out Of Control

    Authored by Gregory Clark via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The U.S. spy community – those nice people who told us they were certain the Iraq of President Saddam Hussein was holding weapons of mass destruction – have now made it known they are certain the Russian ambassador to the United States is Moscow’s top spy. But these people, even if they do not know much about WMD, must know what a top spy does. They do it themselves.

    First, there is the messy and time-consuming job of finding information-loaded officials. Then there is the problem of maintaining contacts with those officials at secret rendezvous. So a senior ambassador, and former deputy Russian foreign minister, is able to do all this while going to cocktail parties, hobnobbing with the national elite, running a large embassy and studying the politics of the nation to which he is accredited?

    I suggest U.S. top spies go back to doing their real work instead of inventing fairy tales.

    I have seen the spies at work, on both sides of the Iron Curtain.

    On the Soviet side they were not a very attractive breed. Their idea of a hard day’s work was constant snooping on the few Russian-speaking foreigners in their midst and relentless interrogation of any Soviet citizen who spoke to a foreigner, together with the occasional attempt at blackmail or compromise.

    In the process they created a generation of Western policymakers deeply prejudiced against their people and their nation. Not a bad result for their decades of hard work, especially since the Western hostility they helped generate guaranteed their continued employment till well into the future.

    Almost all their successes were “walk-ins”— people who for money or ideology wanted to provide information. Those volunteers would probably have provided more if they were not disgusted by the crudity of the people they had to deal with.

    Spies sent to work abroad were usually of better quality. But they always had cover, as private citizens or mid-rank embassy officials at best.

    Much the same in reverse was going in the West. To some extent it is still going on. In Japan the spies are almost out of control. Even though Russia has granted Japanese diplomats there the freedoms now enjoyed by Western diplomats in Russia, the Japanese spies continue to behave as in Soviet days. Like dogs chasing a bone (according to one victim), they are so crudely persistent and obtrusive that even ordinary diplomatic work becomes impossible. And these “dogs”think this will help them get their Northern Territories back?

    I once played host to a prominent Western critic of U.S. Vietnam War policies. Thuggish Japanese spies camped outside my apartment for days.

    These people are not the suave, romantic James Bonds of film fantasy. For the most part they are what we used to call “second elevens”— a cricket analogy for people rejected for the top team. Failing to enter the diplomatic service they make do by joining a spy network. One result is a burning desire to get ahead by undercutting the “first eleven”diplomats and by using largely bogus information to get close to the people in power. Hence the WMD information failure and the Iraq disaster, opposed by most Western diplomats with Middle East experience.

    When U.S. President Donald Trump visited the CIA headquarters in Washington he was upbraided for failing to respect a “sacred” memorial wall devoted to the 90-odd CIA officers who have died while on duty. Maybe he was looking for the wall devoted to the 900,000 or so Iraqis who died as a result of CIA failures. Even Trump had the sense to turn against that dreadful war.

    I once worked for two years as a diplomat in the Soviet Union. On return to Australia I went through the usual spy-agency debriefing, partly because I had reported some KGB stunts against our embassy there. Suddenly the debriefer jumped to his feet waving a report which I had written saying that the Odessa hotel where I was staying was close to the local KGB headquarters. Leaning ominously over the table he demanded to know how I knew the KGB location. I had to educate this stalwart and grossly overpaid defender of Australian security that in Soviet Union the KGB was a public organization with a large brass plate on its buildings reading Komitet Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnosti, or Committee for Government Security.

    Later, because I also spoke Chinese and had also opposed the Vietnam War, I was subjected to one of their stunts (our usual term for spy operations) to persuade me that a Soviet Embassy official wanted to meet me urgently. They made a bad mistake; the telephone operative they had employed spoke pre-revolutionary Russian (Australia has many White Russians, mostly people fleeing to China following the Russian Revolution). There was no way he could have been working for the Soviet Embassy. It seems that little detail passed completely over the heads of our Australian security interest defenders — the people who decide whether we can be trusted with secrets. Nor were they very happy when I was able publicly to expose the stunt.

    The current anti-Russian hysteria in the U.S. media is fueled by similar ignorance. Various Trump officials and appointees are being persecuted relentlessly by leaks accusing them of talking to the Russian ambassador. But anyone who knows anything about diplomacy knows that such informal talks can be crucial to policymaking.

    I admit to having joined secret talks with the premier and foreign minister of the Soviet Union in a fat-headed 1964 Australian attempt to have the Soviet Union join with the West in Vietnam to stop Chinese “aggression.” Because there were laws against revealing state secrets I sat on that important story for more than 20 years.

    Today when the West is bent on equally fat-headed efforts to stop alleged Russian “aggression”(read the 2015 Minsk Two agreement if you want to know who really is the aggressor), talks with Moscow’s ambassador really are needed. And the spies who want to leak that information to embarrass their own government really should go to jail.

    *  *  *

    Gregory Clark served as first secretary at the Australian Embassy in Moscow, from 1963 to 1965.

  • Caught On Video: "Environmental Activists" Deface Trump's Palos Verdes Golf Course

    A group of environmental activists defaced one of President Trump’s premier golf courses early on Sunday morning. The group, which calls itself an “anonymous environmental activist collective” snuck into Trump National Golf Club in Rancho Palos Verdes, California and using six-foot-tall letters carved a message into the green that said: “NO MORE TIGERS. NO MORE WOODS.” The “activists” also released a 1 minute video documenting the trespassing in all its glory, a recording which also spliced footage made from a drone at the time of the event.

    The 7,300-yard course, located in a peninsula just south of Los Angeles, was recently ranked the 43rd best course in California by Golf Digest.

    In a statement sent to The Washington Post, the group said the vandalism was carried out in response to the Trump administration’s “blatant disregard” for the environment. “In response to the president’s recent decision to gut our existing protection policies, direct action was conceived and executed on the green of his California golf course in the form of a simple message: NO MORE TIGERS. NO MORE WOODS,” the statement said.

    The message was carved into the green using gardening tools and took less than one hour to accomplish, according to a member of the group who discussed the project with The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity.

    The group consisted of four people, who accessed the course by scaling a fence and “walking down a steep hill laced with cacti,” the group member told The Post. “Tearing up the golf course felt justified in many ways,” the member said.

    “Repurposing what was once a beautiful stretch of land into a playground for the privileged is an environmental crime in its own right.” According to the law, it’s also criminal trespassing and explains why the “activists” were all shrouded head and toe to avoid being recognized in the video.

    Neither the golf course, nor the Trump Organization’s NYC HQ respond to requests for comment.  A spokesman for the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department confirmed that the department received a call for service Sunday morning about grass being dug up around hole five at the golf club. The spokesman said the department sent a deputy to the scene to determine whether the damage constituted an act of vandalism or whether it was accidental. It was the former.

    “We hope this sends a message to Trump and his corrupt administration that their actions will be met with action,” the member added. Previously farmland, Trump National Golf Club opened in November 2000. On its website, the club touts its dedication to “protecting the environmentally sensitive habitat that plays host to several protected plant species and the endangered Coastal California Gnatcatcher (a small migratory bird).”

    As the WaPo renminds us, Sunday’s vandalism was merely the latest in a long series of attacks involving Trump properties; most recently, the president’s brand-new Washington hotel was spray-painted with the words “Black Lives Matter” during a demonstration.

  • Global Leaders Rattle Their Sabers As The World Marches Toward War

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    Iran just conducted another provocative missile test, more U.S. troops are being sent to the Middle East, it was just announced that the U.S. military will be sending B-1 and B-52 bombers to South Korea in response to North Korea firing four missiles into the seas near Japan, and China is absolutely livid that a U.S. carrier group just sailed through contested waters in the South China Sea.  We have entered a season where leaders all over the globe feel a need to rattle their sabers, and many fear that this could be leading us to war.  In particular, Donald Trump is going to be under the microscope in the days ahead as other world leaders test his resolve.  Will Trump be able to show that he is tough without going over the edge and starting an actual conflict?

    The Iranians made global headlines on Thursday when they conducted yet another ballistic missile test despite being warned by Trump on numerous occasions…

    As tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to mount, the semi-official news agency Tasnim is reporting that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has successfully conducted yet another ballistic missile test, this time from a navy vessel.  Called the Hormuz 2, these latest missiles are designed to destroy moving targets at sea at ranges up to 300 km (180 miles).

     

    Reports on the latest test quotes Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Force, who confirmed that “the naval ballistic missile called Hormuz 2 successfully destroyed a target which was 250 km away.”

     

    The missile test is the latest event in a long-running rivalry between Iran and the United States in and around the Strait of Hormuz, which guards the entrance to the Gulf. About 20% of the world’s oil passes through the waterway, which is less than 40 km wide at its narrowest point.

    So how will Trump respond to this provocation?

    Will he escalate the situation?  If he does nothing he will look weak, but if he goes too far he could risk open conflict.

    Elsewhere in the Middle East, things are already escalating.  It is being reported that “several hundred Marines” are on the ground in Syria to support an assault on the city of Raqqa, and another 1,000 troops could be sent to Kuwait to join the fight against ISIS any day now.  The following comes from Zero Hedge

    While the Trump administration waits to decide if it will send 1,000 troops to Kuwait to fight ISIS, overnight the Washington Post reported that the US has sent several hundred Marines to Syria to support an allied local force aiming to capture the Islamic State stronghold of Raqqa. Defence officials said they would establish an outpost from which they could fire artillery at IS positions some 32km (20 miles) away. US special forces are already on the ground, “advising” the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) alliance according to the BBC.

     

    The defence officials told the Washington Post that the Marines were from the San Diego-based 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, and that they had flown to northern Syria via Djibouti and Kuwait. They are to set up an artillery battery that could fire powerful 155mm shells from M777 howitzers, the officials said. Another marine expeditionary unit carried out a similar mission at the start of the Iraqi government’s operation to recapture the city of Mosul from IS last year.

    Meanwhile, China is spitting mad for several reasons.  For one, the Chinese are absolutely furious that South Korea has allowed the U.S. to deploy the THAAD missile defense system on their soil…

    China is lashing out at South Korea and Washington for the deployment of a powerful missile defense system known as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD, deposited at the Osan Air Base in South Korea on Monday evening.

     

    The deployment of THAAD follows several ballistic missile tests by North Korea in recent months, including the launch of four missiles on Monday, three of which landed in the sea off the coast of Japan. Though THAAD would help South Korea protect itself from a North Korean missile attack, China is vocally protesting the deployment of the system, claiming it upsets the “strategic equilibrium” in the region because its radar will allow the United States to detect and track missiles launched from China.

    Of course the U.S. needed to do something, because the North Koreans keep rattling their sabers by firing off more ballistic missiles toward Japan.

    But it is one thing to deploy a missile defense system, and it is another thing entirely to fly strategic nuclear bombers into the region.

    So if the Chinese were upset when THAAD was deployed, how will they feel when B-1 and B-52 bombers start showing up in South Korea?

    Earlier this week, trigger-happy Kim pushed his luck once more when he fired off four ballistic missiles into the seas near Japan.

     

    Now US military chiefs are reportedly planning to fly in B-1 and B-52 bombers – built to carry nuclear bombs – to show America has had enough.

     

    South Korea and the US have also started their annual Foal Eagle military exercise sending a strong warning to North Korea over its actions.

     

    A military official said 300,000 South Korean troops and 15,000 US personnel are taking part in the operation.

    The Trump administration has openly stated that all options “are on the table” when it comes to North Korea, and that includes a military strike.

    It has been more than 60 years since the Korean War ended, but many are concerned that we may be closer to a new Korean War than we have been at any point since that time.

    And of course our relationship with China is tumbling precariously downhill as well.  Another reason why the Chinese are extremely upset with the Trump administration is because a U.S. Navy carrier battle group led by the USS Carl Vinson sailed past islands that China claims in the South China Sea just a few weeks ago.

    In China, the media openly talks about the possibility of war with the United States over the South China Sea.  Most Americans are not even aware that the South China Sea is a very serious international issue, but over in China this is a major focus.

    And the U.S. military has recently made several other moves in the region that have angered the Chinese

    Also in February, the U.S. sent a dozen F-22 Raptor stealth fighters to Tindal AB in northern Australia, the closest Australian military airbase to China, for coalition training and exercises. It’s the first deployment of that many F-22s in the Pacific.

     

    And if that didn’t get the attention of the Chinese government, the U.S. just tested four Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missiles during a nuclear war exercise, sending the simulated weapons 4,200 miles from the coast of California into the mid-Pacific. It’s the first time in three years the U.S. has conducted tests in the Pacific, and the first four-missile salvo since the end of the Cold War.

    I can understand the need to look tough, but eventually somebody is going to go too far.

    If you are familiar with my work, then you know that I believe that war is coming.  Things in the Middle East continue to escalate, and it is only a matter of time before a great war erupts between Israel and her neighbors.  Meanwhile, U.S. relations with both Russia and China continue to deteriorate, and this is something that I have been warning about for a very long time.

    We should hope for peace, but we should also not be blind to the signs of war that are starting to emerge all over the planet.  Relatively few people anticipated the outbreak of World War I and World War II in advance, and I have a feeling that the same thing will be true for World War III.

  • The Paradox Of Our Times: Record Assets, Record Debt, & Record Depression

    Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

    It is surely one of the primary reasons why many if not most people have so much trouble accepting the trouble the economy is in. With record high stock prices leading to record levels of household net worth, it seems utterly inconsistent to claim those facts against a US economic depression. Weakness might be more easily believed as some overseas problem, leading to only ideas of decoupling or the US as the “cleanest dirty shirt” – the US economy has problems, but how bad can they be? Yet, despite asset price levels and even record debt, all those prove is just how disconnected those places have become from what used to be an efficient way to redistribute financial resources.

    According to the Fed’s Z1 report, Household net worth climbed by $2 trillion in Q4 alone to $92.8 trillion.

    That is a 69% increase from the low in Q1 2009, even though Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers have grown by just 30% in that same time.

    The wealth effect is dead, or, more specifically, it never was.

    From the view of net worth, the increase to record debt levels seems manageable. From the more appropriate view of income and economy, it does not, even though US debt levels have grown more slowly post-crisis. That would mean debt is partway between assets and economy, sort of splitting the difference of what monetary policy believes and what it, at best, “achieved.”

    Total debt (Total Lending plus Total Securities) rose just 0.8% in Q4 2016, the slowest growth rate since Q3 2015. That deceleration was shared equally by loans as well as securities, both registering record highs but also remaining hugely inefficient toward real economic growth and therefore capacity (what is all this debt financing?).

    The minimal amount of overall deleveraging after the Great “Recession” has achieved a similarly minimal amount of financial rebalancing debt to economy. Total credit levels have remained historically out of bounds with the capacity to support them. The chart above may provide a clue as to why that has been, especially in contrast to the Great Inflation. The so-called Great Moderation (which clearly wasn’t that) did not moderate the level of credit expansion to economic expansion (in nominal terms) as had been done even throughout the worst parts of the Great Inflation.

    That would propose monetary expansion (via evolution) into credit expansion (including the blurring distinction between money and credit, as monetary forms became more substitutable and fungible) along the lines of Net Worth and therefore asset prices. It further suggests asset prices are hugely leveraged based on hidden factors of credit and monetary substitution (housing bubble as a predicate of the dot-com bubble, for one example). In terms of just stocks, that would appear to be the verdict of valuation measures like Tobin’s Q (and the modified Q which strips potential real estate bubble pricing from corporate net worth).

    There isn’t a whole lot of additional insight provided by these statistics and ratios, just more evidence and confirmation that imbalances remain as ridiculous as ever. It really isn’t so difficult to understand why the economy of the 21st century has behaved so radically different than at almost any time in history – especially post-crisis where monetary instability contributes to great uneasiness about the distribution and redistribution of resources (stock repurchases vs. capex, for one example). From the view of the corporate board room, it would appear less risky to “invest” in one’s shares than to actually invest where the economy needs it most (liquidity preferences). And as the imbalances only grow worse, that skew becomes even more skewed (self-reinforcing).

    In very simple terms, what small level of deleveraging was achieved was limited to real economic function rather than in asset prices (and truly debt levels).

    So rather than rebuilding debt increasing the probability and strength of the recovery, it has done instead the opposite at least in the private economy (which wouldn’t actually be a bad thing) as opposed to the swelled public economy.

    The result is the seeming paradox stated at the outset – record assets and debt during full-blown and durable depression.

  • Gary Cohn: "The Fed Is Doing A Good Job"; Trump "Respects The Powers Of The Fed"

    Former Goldman president, and current White House chief economic advisor – as well as the person who supposedly is engaged in a bitter fued with Peter Navarro over the shape of future US trade policy – Gary Cohn appeared on Fox News Sunday, and spoke at length to Chris Wallace about some of the key economic policy changes to be implemented.

    First, he touched on Obamacare repeal, saying that the administration will do “whatever it takes” to get the bill passed, setting a high bar for expectations from Trump who is still expected to meet significant challenges from House and Senate republicans.

    Cohn then touched on Trump’s vision to protect the country, saying the Obama administration under-invested in the military the past eight years. “Unfortunately, we have no alternative but to reinvest in our military and make ourselves a military power once again,” Cohn said. Cohn said Trump met over the last several weeks with generals from the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marines to talk about the military’s preparedness. He said it has been disappointing to hear what these generals have had to say. Cohn conceded that if funds are used to reinvest in the military, cuts need to be made elsewhere in order ensure a balanced budget without creating a further deficit.

    “It’s no different than every other family in America that has to make the tough decision,” Cohn said. “When they need to spend money somewhere, they have to cut it from somewhere else. These are tough decisions, but the president has shown he is ready, willing and able to make these tough decisions.”

    Finally, touching on a topic that until recently at least appeared to be dear to Trump’s, Cohn – speaking in his best former Goldman COO voice – said that the Federal Reserve “has been doing a good job” and the Trump administration respects its independence, even if the U.S. central bank raises interest rates this week.

    He said that Trump administration will keep working to reduce barriers to job creation no matter what the Fed does on interest rates.

    “The Federal Reserve is an independent agency and they operate as such. They have their economic data, which they look at and they are trying to always modulate economic growth with inflation, with the work force,” Cohn said. “I think the Federal Reserve has been doing a good job in doing that. The Fed will do what they need to do. And we respect the powers of the Fed.”

    It remains to be seen if he will also respect them after 2-3 rate hikes, when the market finally wakes up to the rate hike cycle and Yellen’s realization she needs to hike in order to cut once the official recession begins, in the process slamming the stock market which both Trump and Cohn have previously confirmed is a “barometer” of the administration’s policies. For now Trump has been happy to take credit for the all time highs in the S&P, but what will he say once stocks start sliding, the dollar surges crushing exports, and Trump finally realizes that he needs looser, not tighter, policies to implement his economic vision? We don’t know, but a twitter Feud between @RealDonaldTrump and the @FederalReserve was certainly among our most vocal desires of things to see in 2017. It may soon come true.

     

    http://video.insider.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=5356873593001&w=500&h=281

    Watch the latest video at video.foxnews.com

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Today’s News 12th March 2017

  • The Strategic Triangle That Is Changing The World

    Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    While the world continues to decipher, or digest, the new Trump presidency, important changes are afoot within the grand strategic triangle that lies between Russia, Iran and China

    Away from the current chaos in the United States, major developments are progressing, with Iran, Russia and China coordinating on a series of significant moves crucial for the future of the Eurasian continent. With a population of more than five billion people, constituting about two-thirds of the Earth's population, the future of humanity passes through this immense area. Signaling a major change from a unipolar world order based on Europe and the United States to a multipolar world steered by China, Russia and Iran, these Eurasian states are carving out a leading role in the development of the vast continent. As part of the challenges faced by these leading multipolar countries, the disruptive events originating in the post-WWII Euro-Atlantic world order will need to be tackled.

    Looking at major projects within the Eurasian continent, one thing that stands out is the role of China, Russia and Iran in different areas under their influence. The One Belt, One Road project proposed by Beijing (investments of around one trillion dollars over the next ten years); the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) advanced by Moscow to integrate the former Soviet republics of Central Asia; and Iran's role in Middle East aiming to bring stability and prosperity to the region – all are central to Eurasian development. Of course, being multipolar, all these projects fully converge, requiring concerted and joint development for the overall success of the Eurasian continent.

    In this sense, the areas of greatest turmoil include areas that fall under the sphere of influence of these leading Eurasian states. The main concentrations of upheaval can be easily identified in the Middle East and North Africa, not to mention the area of ??the Persian Gulf, where Saudi Arabia's criminal war against Yemen has now continued unabated for the past 24 months.

    Islamic terrorism, a source for cooperation.

    The common source of instability for the Eurasian continent stems from Islamic terrorism, deployed as an instrument of division and conflict. In this sense, the Saudi and Turkish role in nurturing and spreading Wahhabism as well as the Muslim Brotherhood means that they are directly opposed to the stability of the Chinese, Russian and Iranian sphere. With the full financial support of China, and military support of Russia, Tehran’s role in the region unsurprisingly becomes decisive. Iran is the country in which Sino-Russian influence is manifested at all levels in the region and beyond. The deterioration of the military situation in Syria has nevertheless obliged Moscow to intervene militarily in support of Syria, a key regional ally of Iran, but also provided a perfect way to counter Saudi-Turkish influence in the region. The growing Shia crescent linking Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon is vital for retaining the influence of a multipolar world in the region. Washington has thus far been able to dictate matters through the actions of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, its regional cat’s paws, whose interests often align with that of Zionist elements, neoconservative and Wahhabi, that exist within the US deep state. Of course, Washington seeks to preserve the unipolar world order through its regional allies, aiming to remain the ultimate arbiter of Middle Eastern affairs, an area reverberating with instability from the Persian Gulf to North Africa.

    It is no wonder, then, that Moscow has sought to establish a special relationship with the post-Morsi (Muslim Brotherhood) government in Egypt, which will curtail the Saudi-American influence on Cairo and North Africa, especially following the destruction of Gaddafi's Libya. Al Sisi’s signals are encouraging, representing one of clearest examples of a multipolar world in the making. Egypt accepted Saudi funding during the time of highest tension between Doha and Riyadh, an obvious moment of weakness on the part of Cairo, especially after the coup that removed Morsi, who was supported by Qatar, Turkey and the United States. Yet in recent times, Egypt has been happy to cooperate with Moscow, especially in regard to arms. (The purchase of two Mistral ships from France assumes the further purchase of weaponry from Moscow; the same is the case with nuclear-energy development as an alternative to the massive importation of oil from Saudi Arabia, which was suspended by Riyadh following the commencement of dialogue between Cairo and Damascus). Egypt seeks a strategic positioning in the region that winks at the Russo-Sino-Iranian triangle (talks on Egypt joining the EAEU have been in the air for quite some time), although not completely ruling out the economic contribution of Saudi Arabia and the United States. On the contrary, the influence of Turkey and Iran is rejected and declared hostile, mainly because of the continuing relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood, a major concern in the Sinai.

    Stability in the Middle East and North Africa relies on an expansion of Iran’s mediating role; important financial contributions from the People's Republic of China (take a look at the situation in Libya and the reconstruction in Syria); and military cooperation with the Russian Federation. The importance of focusing on these areas of the globe can not be overstated, representing the first steps towards a more fundamental restructuring of the world order in different parts of the Eurasian landmass.

    Caucasus, Central Asia and Afpak: Syria as a case study.

    Often when looking at the danger posed by political Islam and Wahhabi extremism, three key areas of the Eurasian continent are usually under consideration: the former Soviet republics of Central Asia; the complicated border between Afghanistan and Pakistan; and the Caucasus area. In these areas, cooperation between China, Russia and Iran is once again playing a key role, seeing many attempts to mediate tensions and conflicts that would potentially be catastrophic for economic-development projects. The recent terrorist attacks in Pakistan in Lahore showed the true face of cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan, strongly encouraged by China and Russia. Shortly after a brief exchange of fire between the militaries of Afghanistan and Pakistan on their common border, an agreement was reached between Kabul and Islamabad to reduce tensions and advance the peace talks heavily sponsored by Moscow and Beijing. The need to halt the escalation of tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan is one of the primary focuses of Russia and China in what is one of the most unstable regions of the world and what are transit lines for future projects led by the China-Iran-Russia alliance. The instability of this particular area depends largely on the role that India, Saudi Arabia, the US and Turkey intend to play to counterbalance the Eurasian trio. It is not at all coincidental that Moscow is trying in various ways to reach a complex understanding with each of these players. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are the center of control and administration for international terrorism, Riyadh and Ankara’s negative influence being felt from Syria and Libya through to Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Caucasus. The determining factor is not always the United States, though Washington naturally encourages all kinds of destructive efforts directed against the integration of the Eurasian continent.

    Syria appears to be the first point of understanding reached on paper between Turkey and Russia, and could, if it obtains a positive outcome to the conflict, represent a foundation on which to build a strategic cooperation in areas like Afpak and Central Asia. In this sense, the energy-corridor incentives represented by pipelines, of which Russia is the main player, should not be underestimated, as in the case of the Turkish Stream. Also in the Caucasus, another area of extreme instability, the role played by Russia and Iran was decisive during the four days of war in Nagorno-Karabakh.

    The energy factor is certainly a big incentive for Saudi Arabia, which has long observed energy diversification with interest by focusing on civilian nuclear power, something of which Russia is a world leader. Moscow plays its cards variously by providing military and economic cooperation to its closest partners (Iran, China, Syria, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan); strengthening bilateral alliances through the incentive of cooperation in weapons systems (India, Pakistan and Egypt); and energy cooperation with seemingly distant nations (UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia) in order to pry open a breach through which to gather broader geopolitical arrangements.

    The overall strategy of the three leading Eurasian nations aims primarily to strengthen the national borders of the countries with the most turbulent regions. Putin's recent trip to Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan aims to strengthen the soft underbelly of the Russian Federation, eliminating the threat and influence of radical Islamic terrorism in order to allow for the expansion of economic cooperation in the Eurasian Union. While not an easy task, it is certainly encouraged by the prospect of mutual gain for the nations involved, with mutually agreeable bilateral agreements in the place of diktats. In a sense, it is what the People's Republic is attempting to establish in Central Asia, one of the most volatile regions of the world, endeavoring to reach agreements and expand its pool of energy resources as occurred recently in Turkmenistan. Another example of the reduction of threats to the Eurasian landmass can be seen in the Xinjiang province, which China has focused on as an area that needs an easing of socio-political tensions, in the interests of obviating outside efforts to destabilize China, directed mainly from Turkey through its partner Turkmenistan.

    The Indian role in this context is more difficult to understand, compressed within an anti-Pakistan and anti-Chinese sentiment, as well as a subjection to the United States, together with good historical friendship with the Russian Federation. The role of New Delhi in this part of the world is the most indecipherable, seeing India’s (inscrutable) efforts to advance its own strategic goals. The strategic importance of Moscow and Tehran are essential in balancing the Indian position. Historically India was an important ally of the USSR, and India militarily continues to advance important military projects with the Russian Federation. In recent years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has greatly contributed to the Indian diversification of energy supplies. The fact that Tehran is a privileged partner of Beijing shows what a multipolar world looks like, and also helps to balance the anti-Chinese sentiment deeply rooted in the Indian establishment. In this case, Russia and Iran are clearly playing a mediating role between China and India. The fact that India and China are both important gas customers of Iran, as well as the fact that both China and India are cooperating with Russia on a military base, helps understand how Moscow and Tehran are cutting out Washington and diluting the anti-Chinese sentiment in India.

    The tensions that Washington fans in India is increasingly being doused, not least because it is at odds with India’s need to create a stable business environment for development without precluding any opportunity for partnership. The most difficult challenge is the peace process between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which goes against Indian geopolitical interests that are aligned with the American position in the region. To mitigate this situation, strong joint cooperation is required. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will try to implement a framework within which to discuss and reach all-inclusive agreements between the parties involved. Once again, a regional discussion between Eurasian powers does not include the old world order of the US and Europe.

    The role played by China and Russia in Central Asia can not be overstated, because of the importance of the potentially available energy resources. This is not to mention the future cooperation between the two gigantic economic areas, such as with the European Union and Asia, that will transit through Central Asia, transforming the Eurasian Union into a golden bridge linking Europe and Asia. At the moment, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is an organization like the SCO that tends to prioritize the fight against terrorism; but increasingly it is seen as offering a place for discussion, an organization that offers a path toward economic cooperation by first laying down the necessary foundation of territorial stability. In this area of ??the globe, economic prosperity depends heavily on social, political and military stability.

    After all, this is the great challenge that Russia, China and Iran are facing, namely to de-escalate the hot zones (Middle East, Persian Gulf and North Africa) by eradicating the terrorist problem, and preventing the escalation of tensions in neighboring regions lying immediately within their sphere of influence (the Caucasus, Afghanistan-Pakistan and Central Asia), thus avoiding destructive destabilization.

    It is only once an international framework is in place that these areas will see the stability that will allow for the deep and wide-ranging economic cooperation that will be of historic significance. In this sense the entry of India and Pakistan into the SCO was the first step of a complicated deal led by China and Russia that covers a dozen nations. The same situation can be observed with the future entry of Iran into the SCO, with the specific objective of expanding the influence of the SCO in unstable areas like the Persian Gulf and Middle East. In this sense the discussions regarding the entry of Egypt into the SCO as a full member is aimed at expanding the SCO’s positive influence even as far away as North Africa.

    Russia, China and Iran are laying down the foundations for developments that will make the US irrelevant in its struggle to extend its unipolar moment. Combining the population of the Eurasian continent with the demographic and economic growth of these areas, it is not too difficult to understand how, in the space of just over two decades, the area stretching from Portugal to China, which includes dozens of nations of all latitudes and longitudes that extend from the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation to the Indian sea or the Persian Gulf, will be the central pivot around which the global economy will revolve. The combination of land and sea trade corridors will make the Eurasian continent the world's core, not only in terms of production but also in terms of trade and consumption, due to the increase of wealth of the middle-class areas of the world.

    In a strategic vision that historically incorporates decades of planning, Tehran, Moscow and Beijing have fully understood that stability is the primary objective to be achieved in order to effectively promote economic development that benefits all the nations involved. In Asia, ASEAN has begun to have a less belligerent attitude towards China, although Beijing continues to ensure its strategic interests with the construction and militarization of artificial islands in the South China Sea. The Philippines’ president, Rodrigo Duterte, seems to understand the potential gains of multipolar cooperation, and the path followed by his country in recent months forges a path for all other Asian nations, especially following the abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) project by Washington. It remains to be seen what role the old European continent can play while still being shackled to the American strategy that is focused on isolating Russia, China and Iran, committed to advancing Washington's global hegemony at cost, even if it involves committing economic suicide, as can be seen in Ukraine with the sanctions against the Russian Federation.

    One should not rule out a future change in direction in Europe as a direct result of failed policies that for too long have genuflected before American interests at the expense of the interests of European citizens. It is not accidental that many parties considered populist and nationalist have every intention of turning to the East and pursuing cooperation that for too long has been denied by the stupidity of Western elites.

    China, Russia and Iran appear to have every intention of accelerating the project of global cooperation and show no intention of shutting the doors to new players from outside Eurasia, especially in an increasingly globalized and interconnected world. Just take a look at the links of the People's Republic of China with the development projects in South America to understand how the scope of these projects aim to include all nations without exception. This is the foundation on which the new multipolar world order is based, and sooner or later the American and European elites will understand this. The dilemma for Western elites lies in their diminished role in the future international order: no longer will the US and Europe be the lone protagonists but actors who are part of an international cast. The unipolar international order is running out of time and the old world order is in crisis. Will Europeans and Americans be able to accept a role as co-protagonists, or will they reject inevitable historical change, condemning themselves in the process to oblivion?

  • Trump Deploys Dozens Of Judges To Battle Massive Backlog Of Deportation Cases

    In response to the 'paralysis' facing immigration courts, dealing with over 500,000 pending cases, President Trump is deploying 50 judges to immigration detention facilities across the United States, according to two sources and a letter seen by Reuters.

    As the Associated Press points out, there are 58 immigration courts in 27 states around the country with a total of 301 judges.  The problem, of course, is that those 301 judges already face a mountain of 534,000 pending immigration cases which is likely to balloon even higher under Trump's administration.

     
     

    Of 374 authorized immigration judge positions, 301 are filled. Fifty more candidates are in various stages of the hiring process, which typically takes about a year, said Kathryn Mattingly, a spokeswoman for the Executive Office for Immigration Review.

     

    In all, more than 534,000 cases were pending before immigration courts nationwide in February, according to a recent memo from Kelly.

    The massive backlog means that processing errors are a common occurrence and ultimately just result in illegal immigrants getting a free pass to reside in the country even longer, which is unacceptable to President Trump, and as Reuters reports the Department of Justice is also considering asking judges to sit from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m., split between two rotating shifts, to adjudicate more cases, the sources said. A notice about shift times was not included in the letter.

    Two sources familiar with the Justice Department's plan said the department would ask more judges to volunteer for one or two month deployments at detention centers. If the department cannot find enough volunteers, the department would assign judges to detention centers, the sources said. Judges who volunteer for the first 50 deployments would be sent to detention centers in Adelanto, California; San Diego, Chicago and elsewhere, according to the letter.

    Judges are employed by the Justice Department to oversee cases that determine if immigrants are given protections, such as asylum, or ordered deported. A handful of judges work from detention centers but most work from courts around the country.

    Of course, as we noted previously, one way to relieve the court burden is to simply increase deportations without using the court system at all, a strategy that has the American Civil Liberties Union Immigrants' Rights Project, and the 1,000s of immigration lawyers that earn a living filing appeal after appeal, up in arms.

    Advocates worry the Trump administration will increase the use of procedures that allow authorities to deport people without using the court system at all.

     

    "Instead of actually trying to make the courts better, they just want to use them less, even though that obviously is deeply problematic from a due-process standpoint," said Omar Jadwat, director of the American Civil Liberties Union Immigrants' Rights Project.

     

    Mehlman agrees the system is broken, but said advocacy groups and lawyers who keep filing new motions and appeals are part of the problem.

     

    "They understand that time works to their benefit and that the longer you can drag this out, the more bites at the apple you can get, the greater the likelihood that you can find some plausible reason for remaining here in the United States," he said.

    The Justice Department did not respond to a request for comment.

  • Gold In Uncertain Times: "The West Doesn't Get It… They've Been Indoctrinated By Paper Money"

    In this fascinating interview on RealVision TV, Grant Williams and Egon von Greyerz cover a very broad range of subjects from gold, wealth preservation to debt, interest rates, Brexit, the EU and much more.

    https://player.vimeo.com/video/201008947?color=31fee8&title=0&byline=0&portrait=0

    The interview was recorded in London at the end of 2016 but the discussion is timeless and extremely relevant in regard to future events and risks.

    The biggest risks ahead according to Egon is the global bond markets. He predicts rates going to very much higher levels like in the 1970s. That will lead to more money printing, faster currency debasement and the demise of the bond market.

    Grant and Egon also discuss that in every period of panic and crisis combined with economic mismanagement, which we are seeing today, gold has always acted as insurance. The setup is now perfect for gold to act to protect wealth against the coming problems in financial markets and the world economy…"the Indians know this, the Chinese know this but the West doesn't understand because they have been indoctrinated by paper money…"

    As inflation rises institutions will be obliged to hold gold as a hedge. Since gold production is coming down substantially over the next 8 years there will be less gold available. No one will trust paper gold. This will lead to major upward pressure in the price of physical gold. Future increases in demand can only be satisfied at much higher prices.

    *  *  *

    Full interview below: One of the most respected names in the gold market, Egon von Greyerz illuminates the discussion on the long term trend for the precious metal, against the current climate.

    https://player.vimeo.com/video/201007978?color=31fee8&title=0&byline=0&portrait=0

    Source: GoldSwitzerland.com

    *  *  *

    Real Vision: Raoul Pal and Grant Williams created Real Vision which is great financial video-on-demand service with over 500 in-depth interviews with the world’s sharpest independent analysts, fund managers, geopolitical strategists, economists and investors. Free from groupthink, advertising or bias, Real Vision presents its viewers with the very best economic information and financial insight available and then allows them to make up their own minds, and profit from knowledge.

  • As Millions Of Venezuelans Try To Flee The Country They Run Into A Problem

    While shortages of basic foods, medicines, and toilet paper may be a major societal problem, the people of Venezuela face an even more existential problem: the nation now lacks the materials to meet the soaring demand for new passports – making it almost impossible to leave the socialist utopia.

    "People used to move to Venezuela from all over the Americas, Europe and Asia and now they are all trying to leave," Sonia Schott, the former Washington, D.C., correspondent for Venezuelan news network Globovisión, told Fox News.

    While estimates of how many passport requests the socialist government received last year vary from between 1.8 million to 3 million, only 300,000 of the elusive documents were doled out.

     

    Everyday, hundreds of people line up outside the passport agency, known as Saime, in the capital of Caracas in the hopes of obtaining one.

     

    It’s an ironic, and yet sad situation, for a country that used to be one of Latin America’s wealthiest and one that was used to seeing people flock to, not away from.

    Tomás Páez – author of “The Voice of the Venezuelan Diaspora” – told Bloomberg that since Chávez took power in 1999 nearly 2 million Venezuelans have fled the country and hundreds of thousands are marking their time until they obtains the funds and the passport that will allow them to leave.

    Maduro has acknowledged the issue of the chronic shortages in passports and last week launched a new “online” option that will rush a passport to customers within 72 hours for about double the price of waiting in line. The website, however, has crashed numerous times and it is unclear how many passports have been expedited through this process. Saime has stated that the backup in processing passport applications is because the agency lacks enough “materials,” but did not specify what that means. Observers say that while the government may not be able to afford the paper to make the passport. Paper products in the country, including toilet paper, are in short supply in Venezuela. But skeptics think the Maduro government may also be trying to keep people from leaving the beleaguered nation.

    “People with the means to get out want to, but the problem is you need a passport and you can’t get it,” Cynthia Arnson, the director of the Latin American Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center told Fox News.

     

    “It’s kind of an excuse by the Venezuelan government that they don’t have materials, because they know the real reason people want a passport is to leave the country.”

    Most of Venezuela’s 30 million resident, however, don’t have that kind of money as the monthly minimum wage in the country comes to less than $30 a month on the black market.

  • Trump Wall – How Exactly?

    By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

    Market dislocations occur when financial markets, operating under stressful conditions, experience large widespread asset mispricing.

    Welcome to this week’s edition of “World Out Of Whack” where every Wednesday we take time out of our day to laugh, poke fun at and present to you absurdity in global financial markets in all its glorious insanity.

    While we enjoy a good laugh, the truth is that the first step to protecting ourselves from losses is to protect ourselves from ignorance. Think of the “World Out Of Whack” as your double thick armour plated side impact protection system in a financial world littered with drunk drivers.

    Selfishly we also know that the biggest (and often the fastest) returns come from asymmetric market moves. But, in order to identify these moves we must first identify where they live.

    Occasionally we find opportunities where we can buy (or sell) assets for mere cents on the dollar – because, after all, we are capitalists.

    Join the INSIDER membership and find out what we’re doing with our own money… targeting asymmetric investment opportunities

    Capitalist Exploits Insider

    In this week’s edition of the WOW: Trump Wall – How Exactly?

    How many people voted for “Herr Von Trump” because he promised to build a “great and beautiful wall”?

    Likely the same folks that fervently believe stable jobs at shuttered coal mines and steel factories are actually coming back (they’re not).

    He made it a pillar of his campaign – the beautiful wall, that is. Which makes me wonder about his use of speech. I mean, I know I’m going to be accused of nitpicking but I’ve seen a lot of walls, none I’d describe as beautiful. Charlize Theron is beautiful. Walls are not.

    Understandably the folks south of the border got testy. Surprisingly, they don’t appreciate being called rapists and drug pushers:

    Even the former Mexican Grand Mufti honcho got stuck in.

    And Nieto’s turn:

    “Mexico will not pay for that wall, we will pay for ladders though,” Nieto said. “Trump can do whatever he wants, he can spend as much money as he wants, but the fact is, so many of our people have friends and family in the United States. And unfortunately for these people they cannot afford a visa or citizenship or cannot wait the long delays in getting one, so ladders are the answer.”

    Trump wasn’t backing down.

    Football hooligans couldn’t do it better. This is the best these countries have to offer, folks. God help us all!

    It’s enough to drive a man to drink. I’m sorely tempted to pop down to the local liquor store for a litre of Kalashnikov Vodka – guaranteed to blow my head clean off.

    Still , I’ve become accustomed to dealing with the fact the world is littered with the dullest and most useless people steering the ships. But what’s more concerning is why nobody has asked the obvious questions.

    Meatheads never ask the obvious questions. Mental arithmetic requiring independent thought being something strongly discouraged.

    What sort of wall? Concrete? Wire fencing? If so, how much?

    How will the materials get there? Take a look, there are no roads in much of the territory.

    Who builds it? Mexicans?

    What about housing for what will have to be a sizeable workforce? What about water, food, medical supplies?

    How high? Not high enough and a USD10 ladder trumps (pun intended) a multi billion dollar wall.

    What about tunnels under it? Smugglers, after all, have been tunneling for years where the wall already exists. Reminds me of Einstein’s definition of insanity. Why would they stop what already works?

    Then there’s the little issue of this being 2,000km of wall. That’s an awful lot of wall. Wall that has to go through private land which begs the question. What about imminent domain?

    What about the environment protection agency and the mating habits of the endangered red-eared slider?

    Has any of this been thought about? Did voters, in their desperate desire to rid themselves of the sclerotic, nepotistic, basilisk and the establishment she represents, bother to ask themselves these questions?

    The US Department of Homeland Theatre Security estimate the wall will cost USD21.6 billion and take more than 3.5 years to build. Trump doesn’t think so.

    ‘It’ll get done so quickly your head will spin.’

    Guess we’ll see. Anyway, considering government estimates I think it’s safe to double both of these figures – USD44 Billion and 7 years sounds about right then. That’s bigger than the GDP of Slovenia, it’s twice that of Iceland, and 3 times that of Jamaica. Personally, I’d rather just buy Jamaica, lie in the sun and collect all the rum revenues while stashing a little in the cellar, of course. But then, I’m not running the mess show.

    I wonder: Did Trump think through the fact that the US has a pact with Mexico on shared water rights? Did he know one existed before making this part of his campaign? Annoyingly, he’s failed to brief me but I have my suspicions he didn’t.

    The same report estimates that this agreement alone could bring the cost from USD11 million per mile to USD15 million per mile in one area.

    This is the Rio Grande. Perhaps many Americans haven’t been down here or thought about this much. You gonna build a wall here?

    This doozy sits in the report, too:

    “It also does not account for major physical barriers, like mountains, in areas where it would not be feasible to build.”

    Take another look at the Rio Grande. This, folks, isn’t merely a 2x on opex estimation. Just sayin’…

    So what’s up with Trump? Can he not do arithmetic? Does he simply speak like most politicians (lie)? Or does he simply shoot from the lip.

    Has he looked at the fact that more Mexicans are leaving than entering the United States?

    That a Mexican border wall is impractical, impossible, ludicrously expensive, and will create (rather than solve) the problems it’s purported to solve but that won’t stop Washington from doing what Washington does: stupid things.

    The Question is…

    Trump Wall Poll

    Cast your vote here and also see what others think

    – Chris

    “Walls in people’s heads are sometimes more durable than walls made of concrete blocks.” ? Willy Brandt, Erinnerungen

    ————————————–

    Liked this article? Don’t miss our future missives and podcasts, and

    get access to free subscriber-only content here.

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  • Caught On Video: Man Brutally Beaten In Lower Manhattan As People Walk By

    A man was brutally beaten on a sidewalk in Manhattan’s Lower East Side in broad daylight on Friday afternoon as pedestrians walked by while the entire attack caught on camera. The incident took place around 2:45 p.m on Friday and NY Police is searching for two suspects.

    The police said two men chased a 24-year-old man north on Orchard Street towards Stanton Street. The men caught up to the victim in front of 156 Orchard Street and began to punch and kick him multiple times in his head, face and body, according to NY1. The two men then fled in a black livery vehicle.

    An owner of a nearby gallery, interviewed by Pix11, was stunned not so much at the violence, but at how pedestrians simply walked by the scene of the crime with nobody offering to help or stop the brutal beating.

    The victim was transported to the hospital in serious condition.

    The NYPD asks anyone with information is asked to call Crime Stoppers at 1-800-577-TIPS (8477). The public can also submit their tips by logging onto the Crime stoppers website at WWW.NYPDCRIMESTOPPERS.COM or by texting their tips to 274637 (CRIMES) then enter TIP577.

  • Manhattan Luxury Housing In Freefall: J.Crew CEO Slashes Tribeca Loft Price By Over 40%

    While in recent weeks we have documented various instances of sharp pullbacks in the ultra-luxury segment of New York’s housing market (here, here and here), a dramatic example of just how sharp the drop in the high-end housing segment has been comes courtesy of Mansion Global which reports that J. Crew CEO Mickey Drexler has slashed a whopping $15 million from the asking price of his Tribeca loft after it languished on the market for close to two years, unable to find a buyer.

    The 72-year-old fashion boss’s 6,226-square-foot spread has just reappeared for sale with a $19.95 million price tag, way below the original $35 million it was first listed for in April 2015, according to listing records. Between its original listing in 2015 and today, there were several other price cuts, with the loft last appearing on the market for $22.5 million last August. That listing was removed entirely in January, only to reappear for $2.5 million less.

    Listing images reveal the five-bedroom pad’s stylish interiors designed by French architect Thierry Despont, including arched windows, original columns and industrial doors, par for the course for what one would expect from a fashion industry bigwig. The building located on Franklin Street is a boutique, 12-unit, full-service condominium with 24-hour doorman and is just down the block from Taylor Swift’s Tribeca pad.

    Even with the hefty haircut, Drexler stands to make a nearly $6 million profit should he find a buyer: property records show that 140 FRANKLIN STREET LLC paid $14.3 million for the apartment in 2012. PropertyShark’s records link the LLC to J. Crew’s headquarters in New York.

  • Putting Global Debt Into Perspective – 13 Stunning Silver Stats

    Although gold has a bigger reputation today as a monetary metal, it was often deemed too valuable for everyday transactions throughout history.

    But, as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes, for the most part, common people in places like Ancient Rome used silver to buy daily staples like grain or wine. As a result, silver has a strong reputation through monetary history as the “people’s money”.

    Even today, silver is still much more widely accessible. With one ounce of gold being 70x more expensive than an ounce of silver, it’s difficult for someone who is just starting to accumulate wealth to own gold.

    Visualizing Silver

    What do savings and debt look like, using the “people’s money”?

    Below is everything from the average paycheck to global sovereign debt visualized as silver cubes.

    1. A median U.S. family brings in $2,355 per pay period (semi-monthly) pre-tax.

    Average U.S. Paycheck as a Silver Cube

    2. However, the median American family only has about $5,000 of savings.

    Median U.S. Savings as a Silver Cube

    3. The standard silver delivery bar holds 1,000 oz of silver.

    Silver bar

    4. Average household debt is $98,312, with mortgage debt being the primary component.

    Average household debt as a silver cube

    5. A Lamborghini worth over $400,000 needs a silver cube with 16-inch (0.4m) sides.

    A Lamborghini's value as a silver cube

    6. Using a silver price of about $18/oz, here’s what $1 million looks like.

    $1 million as a silver cube

    7. Every day, the world’s mines produce about 75 tonnes of silver, worth over $44 million.

    Daily Silver Production as a silver cube

    8. Silver Eagle sales have jumped considerably since the Financial Crisis.

    Silver Eagle Sales as a Silver Cube

    9. When the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the silver market, they hoarded 200 million oz.

    Hunt Brothers Stockpile as a Silver Cube

    10. Today, almost 900 million oz of silver is mined each year.

    All Silver Mined Each Year as a Silver Cube

    11. JP Morgan’s market capitalization, in comparison to previous cubes.

    JPMorgan's market capitalization as a silver cube

    12. All silver ever mined would not compare to the Fed’s balance sheet, which is now $4.5 trillion.

    All Global Debt Visualized as a Gold Cube

    13. Global sovereign debt is 13X bigger than all previous cubes combined.

    All Sovereign Debt Visualized as a Gold Cube

    Liked our visualizations of silver cubes?

    Don’t forget to check out 11 stunning visualizations of gold.

  • The "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund" Capitulates After Surge In Redemptions

    “At some point in my life, and I can’t remember exactly when, I learnt two things that define my approach on how to deal with problems. The first is simply to tell the truth, while it may be unpleasant, at least it is then out in the open and you can begin to work towards a solution. The second is that if something is unavoidable, then just accept the fact it will happen and deal with it.”

           –  Russell Clark, CIO of Horseman Global

    At the end of 2016, we reported that having successfully avoided a calamity for most of 2016 despite being massively net short, somewhere to the tune of around -90%, at times rising as high as -105%, Horseman Global, finally had a bad month. In fact, losing -12.80% in November the hedge fund which we previously dubbed “the world’s most bearish hedge fund” due to its staggering net bearish bias, had just suffered its worst month in history as “the short book, the bond book and the forex book lost money.” We also wondered if Horseman would also have it worst year ever, outpacing the -24.7% return in 2009.  The answer was no, but just barely. After a 7.81% drop in December, Horseman Global has closed the books on 2016 with a 24.03% net loss, its second worst in history.

    Unfortunately, 2017 did not start well for Horseman Global’s CIO Russell Clark; in fact, while two months ago we noted that the fund had started to close parts of its short book and was actively reducing “gross” exposure (perhaps Clark here meant net), it was “still long bonds and short equities.” As a result, as the next table shows, Horseman has started off the year with the worst two-month stint on record, losing 6.55% YTD. Never before in its history has the famously bearish hedge fund had such a dour start to a calendar year.

    Just as importantly, as previewed two months ago, as part of the fund’s net exposure drop, what was as recently as December a net -100% short, has since collapsed to only -12%, effectively a neutral , following a short covering rampage by Clark.

    At the start of the year, Clark told his LPs that after losing 24% in 2016 on what ultimately ended up being a failed bearish bet, he would start covering his net short:

    Despite what I think, we are beginning to close parts of our short book. We have largely exited airline related shorts. We have also closed staple shorts, as they were largely there to protect against a fall in yields, which they did to a degree. We have also closed many developed financial shorts to make some space for Chinese financial shorts. We have also reduced the bond position and moved much of in to German bunds. The majority of the bund position is in 5 year bunds, the buy case I made a few months ago.

    In retrospect that Bund long may not have been the best bet, and the LPs appear to agree. The result: a redemption spike amounting to 10% of AUMs.

    Currently we have redemption requests for about 10% of AUM. Changing strategies means saying goodbye to old investors who bought into the old strategy, and welcoming new investors who buy into the new strategy. That’s just the nature of the way I manage money, where once I change my mind I move quickly to where I want to be. The upshot is that we are reopening the fund to new investors April 1.

    This in turn forced even more liquidations in the Horseman Fund, and prompted the CIO to change his startegy from an outright bearish, to a far more netural – and outright bullish on Emerging markets – one, a move some may say could have top-ticked the market.  How did Clark explain away his 2016 error, and the shift in strategy? To his credit, quite directly:

    The truth is that in 2016, I was finding many short themes in developed markets, while not seeing any resolution in China. To square these observations up, I had assumed we would get some sort of financial crisis in China, which would take down all markets. However, in the end it looks like China has managed to enact capacity cuts that have reduced the risk of a major financial crisis.

     

    What I find interesting, is that US markets have moved up on the promise of reform, even though they look fully valued in my view. China and India we have already had reform take place, and the stocks are not priced for these benefits. Plainly the choice is obvious for me. Long emerging markets, short developed markets is the strategy for the fund.

    Finally, for those who are leaving their funds with the hedge funds in hopes that Clark will turn things around in 2017, here are his parting words:

    While the drawdown is disappointing, what I find really exciting about markets, is that I am going long assets that used to own all the way back in 2007. These assets have been in close to a ten-year bear market. Typically, they have fallen 90% or more over that time, and have become forgotten by the market. They also incredibly cheap. Even more exciting is that all the other fund managers that used to own these assets back in 2007 and were my competitors, have essentially left the industry. This is a typical result in the fund management industry where most managers are unwilling to short sell. Most people only know Russell Clark the short seller, but some older investors still remember Russell Clark emerging market bull of 2006/7. And now we have a synthesis. We are now long emerging markets and short developed markets.

    * * *

    Below is the full letter

    You fund lost 3.23% net this month. Losses came from the short book and the currency book.

     

    At some point in my life, and I can’t remember exactly when, I learnt two things that define my approach on how to deal with problems. The first is simply to tell the truth, while it may be unpleasant, at least it is then out in the open and you can begin to work towards a solution. The second is that if something is unavoidable, then just accept the fact it will happen and deal with it.

     

    The truth is that in 2016, I was finding many short themes in developed markets, while not seeing any resolution in China. To square these observations up, I had assumed we would get some sort of financial crisis in China, which would take down all markets. However, in the end it looks like China has managed to enact capacity cuts that have reduced the risk of a major financial crisis.

     

    In India, we have had three huge reforms over the last few years. Digital ID system, the reform of the tax system, and now demonetisation. These reforms will make doing business far easier in India. The nexus of a China cutting commodity production, and an India with a strong growth outlook, is to be bullish commodities, and this is where most the long book is now focused. The flip side of this is that higher commodity prices will impact spending and margins for western consumers. So we have spent the last two months, expunging bearish positions on EM and replacing them with long positions. At the same time we have been adding developed markets shorts.

     

    What I find interesting, is that US markets have moved up on the promise of reform, even though they look fully valued in my view. China and India we have already had reform take place, and the stocks are not priced for these benefits. Plainly the choice is obvious for me. Long emerging markets, short developed markets is the strategy for the fund.

     

    The second thing about changing strategy is that there are various unavoidable things that will happen, about which much there is little we can do. First, with a change of strategy, there will be people that will wish to redeem. Currently we have redemption requests for about 10% of AUM. Changing strategies means saying goodbye to old investors who bought into the old strategy, and welcoming new investors who buy into the new strategy. That’s just the nature of the way I manage money, where once I change my mind I move quickly to where I want to be. The upshot is that we are reopening the fund to new investors April 1.

     

    The other negative with changing strategies, which is why I don’t do it very often, is that it costs money to do, somewhere between two to three percent. This is a rule of thumb, and comes from recently closed shorts falling after you close, and recently purchased stocks tending to have a give back after being bought. It also because it normally takes a while to get the balance between different parts of the portfolio right. I have tried different ways in the past to minimise this, but the outcome is always the same. This cost of changing is a large part of the performance this month.

     

    While the drawdown is disappointing, what I find really exciting about markets, is that I am going long assets that used to own all the way back in 2007. These assets have been in close to a ten-year bear market. Typically, they have fallen 90% or more over that time, and have become forgotten by the market. They also incredibly cheap. Even more exciting is that all the other fund managers that used to own these assets back in 2007 and were my competitors, have essentially left the industry. This is a typical result in the fund management industry where most managers are unwilling to short sell. Most people only know Russell Clark the short seller, but some older investors still remember Russell Clark emerging market bull of 2006/7. And now we have a synthesis. We are now long emerging markets and short developed markets.

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Today’s News 11th March 2017

  • Preppers Stuck In Cities: Elite Chartering "Getaway Boats In Case Of Manhattan Emergency"

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    There is an inherent dilemma for most of the people living in cities.

    Even those who are aware of the extremely fragile fabric of society are often stuck living urban lives. Perhaps they plan to retire to a country abode, or construct a hideaway to escape to if the need ever arises, but for now, they are stuck in the city making a living.

    This is true even for the rich, but now, they have a back-up plan.

    The biggest of American cities, and one of the most gridlocked, is New York City, with Manhattan and Long Island both isolated islands – trapped during emergencies from the rest of the world.

    That’s why those with means, and forethought, are now chartering emergency charters to get out of the city – probably a good idea, especially if the helicopter is out of your price range.

    via NY Post:

    “A lot of people don’t want to wait on a line to get on a ferry, and they don’t want to worry about walking off of Manhattan, as people had to do in the past,” [Chris Dowhie, co-owner of Plan B Marine] told The Post.“They know a boat is the fastest way, and we take the worry out of maintaining and preparing and always readying your vessel,” he added.

    Not only does the company promise a speedy getaway, it plans individual evacuation routes for each person, depending on their personal needs.

     

    […]

     

    “You don’t have a captain. You have to drive this boat yourself,” Dowhie told The Post, adding that in a crisis, people are more concerned with helping their own families than maneuvering someone else’s escape vehicle.

     

    […]

     

    The unique evacuation service costs an annual fee of $90,000 and is catered toward wealthy individuals and corporations who don’t have time to mastermind their own escape.

     

    Clients access the boats with an individual punch-in number, and should they need to abandon it at any time, Dowhie’s company will locate it.

    Interesting concept, and the fact that this has become a business model is also telling of the times.

    Estimates have placed evacuation from major coastal cities at more than 24 hours:

    Estimated evacuation times during major emergencies.

    For Long Island, where millions of New Yorkers live, it would be 20-29 hours to get off the island – during that time, people will lose their patience, run out of gas, become hungry, be denied access to medications and drugs, need emergency services, resort to crime, etc.

    The one percenters have long been serious about their prepping, for they know too well about the very real dangers being constructed, and the house of cards that is ever poised to collapse.

    There has been a steady rise in the upper class investment into underground bunker communities – typically decked out with furnishings and amenities that nearly compare with above-ground living.

    They have also been the high profile investors buying up getaway farms in places like New Zealand or South America, and hedging with mountain retreats and fortified safe rooms.

    While the amount of money they are spending remains mostly pocket change the biggest players, it represents a serious consideration of the high risk for social disruption, chaos and mega-disasters, such as the collapse of the power grid.

    The good news is that while the rich may indeed be living the high life, with escape hatches built in, there are many steps that the average, and more modest, individual can also take to increase your chances of survival during modest times.

    Todd Savage, who specializes in strategic relocation, says that finding balance is key. For some, a permanent move isn’t possible because of work, medical needs or family life:

    Not everyone will prepare for the same threats. It’s a personal choice. Some folks think that a nuclear exchange is imminent, others a socioeconomic collapse, maybe an EMP (solar or military), or a worldwide pandemic.

     

    Everyone who is concerned with a potential disaster should perform a personal threat assessment. It can help you decide to either relocate permanently to a rural homestead or acquire a bug-out survival property.

    (Survival Retreat Consulting)

    When it comes to elite prepping, you have to always ask yourself: ‘Do they know something that I don’t know?

    Considering their access to power, and their insider vision of human affairs, the chances are very good that they may.

    Boats and hideaway properties can be arranged at lower prices as well, or DIY. If you’re not on an island, there are likely some back roads that can save your life, and keep you out of the major chaos. Plan your escape route, with several alternate routes, that avoid the major intersections with highways, bridges and other points at which the majority of traffic is forced to flow, at a slow, grinding and dangerous pace.

    Safe rooms can been adapted to almost any space, and for relatively little money, and fortifications can be retrofitted where ever you need them. Just food for thought, better now than too late.

    Something big is coming.

  • Sessions Considering "Outside Special Counsel" To Review "Highly Politicized" Actions Of Obama DOJ

    Even though Obama spent the waning days of his administration boasting about how he had managed to spend 8 years in the White House without a single ‘scandal’, current Attorney General Jeff Sessions seems to have a slightly different view of how to define ‘scandal’. 

    But perhaps Obama just “did not recall” some of the highly controversial efforts of his administration including the intentional IRS targeting of conservative political groups, Eric Holder’s “Fast and Furious” gun running program which ultimately resulted in him being held in contempt of Congress and, of course, that infamous meeting between Bill Clinton and Loretta Lynch on the tarmac in Phoenix just as the DOJ and FBI were contemplating whether or not to press charges against Hillary Clinton over her email scandal.

    Appearing on the air with radio host Hugh Hewitt, Sessions was asked if he would consider designating an outside counsel “not connected to politics” to take a second look at Justice Department actions that provoked Republican ire over the last eight years. Hewitt contended during his radio interview that the department had become “highly politicized” during the Obama administration and floated the idea of a special review by an attorney with the authority to bring criminal charges and “just generally to look at how the Department of Justice operated.”

    While Sessions was somewhat noncommittal, he did leave the door open, saying he would do everything he could to “restore the independence and professionalism of the Department of Justice.” According to the AP, Sessions said that “generally, a good review of that internally is the first step before any such decision is made” but continued on to say that he “would have to consider whether or not some outside special counsel is needed.”

    Hewitt:  Now let me switch to the Department itself, Mr. Attorney General.  It has a bad eight years.  I’m a proud veteran of the Department of Justice as you are, but the IRS case, the Fast and Furious case, Secretary Clinton’s server.  The Department of Justice came under great criticism.  How about an outside counsel, not connected to politics, to review the DOJ’s actions in those matters with authority to bring charges if underlying crimes are uncovered in the course of the investigation, and just generally to look at how the DOJ operated in the highly politicized Holder-Lynch years.

     

    Sessions:  Well, I’m going to do everything I possibly can to restore independence and professionalism of the DOJ, so we’re going to have to consider whether or not some outside special counsel is needed.  Generally, a good review of that internally is the first step before any such decision is made.

    <

     

    Sessions went on to say the outcome of the IRS case, in particular, remained “of real concern.” The Justice Department in 2015 found mismanagement at the tax agency but no evidence that it had targeted a political group based on its viewpoints or obstructed justice.

    But we’re sure this is just all ‘much ado about nothing’ as they say…after all Loretta Lynch already said Bill just stopped by her plane to chat about his grandkids for 30 minutes…surely she wouldn’t attempt the mislead the American people just to protect her administration, right?

  • Dear Washington Post: Costco Carrying Orwell's '1984' Is Not A F**king Joke

    Authored by James Holbrooks via TheAntiMedia.org,

    “Next time you’re at Costco, you can pick up a jumbo bag of Cheetos and a copy of ‘1984.’ Doubleplus good!”

    That’s how the Washington Post opened its quick little entry on Wednesday. Continuing, Ron Charles, editor of Book World for the Post, wrote:

    “The discount store is now stocking Orwell’s classic novel along with its usual selection of current bestsellers.”

    If the significance of the fact that a dystopian masterwork can now be purchased alongside a three-ton bag of cheese puffs instantly strikes you, it should. Strangely, though, Charles and the Post don’t seem to see it.

    In fact, it seemed to be a joke to them. The entry closed in the manner it opened. With humor:

    “Appropriately, Costco is offering a reprint of the 2003 edition of ‘1984,’ which has a forward by Thomas Pynchon. That reclusive satirist must love the idea of hawking Orwell’s dystopian novel alongside towers of discounted toilet paper and radial tires. SHOPPING IS SAVING.”

    In the one and only instance Charles even approached something that could be considered commentary, he linked the surge in the book’s sales to “alternative” news items:

    “Last month, amid talk of ‘alternative facts’ from the Trump administration, Signet Classics announced that it had reprinted 500,000 copies, about twice the novel’s total sales in 2016.”

    Note Charles was certain to use the word “alternative” when mentioning Trump. Why? Very clearly, “fake news” is the man’s go-to phrase when speaking of the media. So why go with “alternative” instead? Hell, the Post itself was the driving force behind the “fake news” frenzy in the first place.

    I could go on about how this is the Washington Post, corporate media juggernaut, attempting, rather pathetically, to poison the notion of “alternative” in the minds of its readers — or, I should say, what’s left of them — but that’s not really what this is about.

    What it’s really about is journalism. The fact that “1984” is being sold at Costco, the fact that demand for the classic tale has skyrocketed, is significant. It’s societal. And journalists are supposed to write about things like that.

    And what does the Post do? They make a joke of it.

    This is an organization that, as recently as January, has been busted publishing false news stories. You would think that with its credibility among a growing division of society hanging on by a thread — at best — the Post would turn an event like this into social commentary. This was an opportunity to speak about a changing world.

    But instead, the Post went for laughs.

    Let it sink in, friends. George Orwell’s “1984,” a dystopian tale about a society being crushed under the boot of authoritarian regime,  is, once again, flying off bookshelves. To the extent that you can now get it at Costco. Let the significance of that truly dig in deep.

    Meanwhile, the Washington Post is talking about Cheetos and toilet paper.

  • Credit Suisse: Customer Blowback Over Starbucks' Refugee Hiring Spree Could Crush Same Store Sales

    A few weeks ago we wrote about how the controversial decision of Starbucks’ CEO Howard Schultz to hire 10,000 refugees, a clear shot at the Trump administration’s immigration policies, seemingly backfired as his “brand perception” took a sudden and massive hit, a clear signal once again that coffee drinkers would prefer to not have a side of political propaganda with their $5 morning java (see “Starbucks’ ‘Brand Perception’ Takes A Massive Hit After Announcing Plans To Hire 10,000 Refugees“).

    Now, Credit Suisse’s Restaurant team, led by Jason West, is warning that Schultz’s latest attempt to cram his political opinions down the throats of his customers could cause the company to miss upcoming same-store-sales estimates.

    We have analyzed online “net sentiment” data (positive vs. negative online mentions) provided by NetBase to gauge changes in Starbucks’ brand perception. This follows recent media reports that SBUX’s decision to hire 10,000 refugees over the next five years could have upset some customers, perhaps negatively impacting sales trends. Our work shows a sudden drop in brand sentiment following announcement of the refugee hiring initiative on Jan. 29th, to flattish from a run-rate of ~+80 (on an index of -100 to +100). Net sentiment has since recovered, but has seen significant volatility in recent weeks. While this is only one data point, the analysis leaves us incrementally cautious on SBUX’s ability to meet consensus US SSS forecasts, which call for SSS to accelerate from +3% in F1Q17 (Dec. qtr.) to ~+3.5% in F2Q and ~+5.5% in 2H17.

     

    Potential impact to F2Q SSS: NetBase data show that net sentiment remained depressed for 10 days in late Jan. and early Feb. and was particularly volatile through the remainder of Feb. We see potential for a scenario in which US SSS slowed for a few weeks following news of the refugee hiring initiative, negatively impacting full-quarter SSS by ~70-80bps under a reasonable bear case. This assumes that (1) SSS during the initial 10-day stretch were ~flat, (2) SSS averaged +2% during the remaining 3 weeks of Feb. (when net sentiment saw particularly high volatility) and (3) SSS during the rest of the qtr (Jan. and Mar.) average +3.5% (in line with consensus forecasts for F2Q), putting F2Q US SSS at ~+2.8%. We caveat that we found little to no correlation over longer time periods between the net sentiment data and US SSS. However, in our past work on Chipotle (CMG: Neutral), we found that large and sudden spikes in net sentiment coincided with similar shifts in SSS trends.

    CS

     

    For those who missed it, here are some excerpts from the politically charged message drafted by Schultz to his employees with “deep concern and a heavy heart”:

    I write to you today with deep concern, a heavy heart and a resolute promise. Let me begin with the news that is immediately in front of us: we have all been witness to the confusion, surprise and opposition to the Executive Order that President Trump issued on Friday, effectively banning people from several predominantly Muslim countries from entering the United States, including refugees fleeing wars. I can assure you that our Partner Resources team has been in direct contact with the partners who are impacted by this immigration ban, and we are doing everything possible to support and help them to navigate through this confusing period.

     

    Hiring Refugees: We have a long history of hiring young people looking for opportunities and a pathway to a new life around the world. This is why we are doubling down on this commitment by working with our equity market employees as well as joint venture and licensed market partners in a concerted effort to welcome and seek opportunities for those fleeing war, violence, persecution and discrimination.  There are more than 65 million citizens of the world recognized as refugees by the United Nations, and we are developing plans to hire 10,000 of them over five years in the 75 countries around the world where Starbucks does business.

     

    Building Bridges, Not Walls, With Mexico: We have been open for business in Mexico since 2002, and have since opened almost 600 stores in 60 cities across the country, which together employ over 7,000 Mexican partners who proudly wear the green apron. Coffee is what unites our common heritage, and as I told Alberto Torrado, the leader of our partnership with Alsea in Mexico, we stand ready to help and support our Mexican customers, partners and their families as they navigate what impact proposed trade sanctions, immigration restrictions and taxes might have on their business and their trust of Americans.

    Unfortunately, Schultz quickly found out the hard way that while most adult-aged Americans can agree that they like coffee, roughly 50% disagree with his leftist political opinions.

    Meanwhile, the only folks that don’t seem to be noticing the controversy surrounding Starbucks’ latest mishap are the company’s shareholders.

    SBUX

  • Welcome To Totalitarian America, President Trump!

    Via AntoniusAquinas.com,

    If there had been any doubt that the land of the free and home of the brave is now a totalitarian society, the revelations that its Chief Executive Officer has been spied upon while campaigning for that office and during his brief tenure as president should now be allayed.

    President Trump joins the very crowded list of opponents of the American State which includes the Tea Party, tax resistors, non-interventionists, immigration opponents, traditional family advocates, and a host of others who have been spied upon, persecuted and badgered by federal “intelligence” authorities.  While Congress conducted some feeble hearings and investigations of the shenanigans of the US spy agencies during the interminable Obummer Administration, no real action or reform was taken to reign in the eavesdropping and spying by the national security state on American citizens.

    Hopefully, the surveillance of President Trump will change his outlook on the US “intelligence community” especially in regard to those courageous souls who have spoken out and risked life and limb to alert the public about their rulers’ nefarious activities.  Edward Snowden should be among the first to receive a pardon while the person who provided him sanctuary from his American persecutors, the reviled Vladimir Putin, should be commended for his noble act, a rarity among world leaders in this democratic age.

    President Trump has demonstrated throughout his life loyalty to those who have supported him.  He should, therefore, do all in his power to extricate Julian Assange from the Ecuadoran Embassy in Great Britain and provide him with safe conduct to the US or any destination in which the heroic whistleblower prefers.  Without the deluge of Wikileaks during last fall’s presidential contest exposing the massive corruption of the Clintonistas, it is unlikely that Trump would have ever prevailed never mind winning by an electoral landslide.

    Not only has candidate and President Trump been monitored, but just about every American citizen is under surveillance, the data of which can be used against them at the appropriate time if and when they should challenge the American Leviathan.  NSA whistleblower William Binney confirmed what has been long known in government circles and by those Americans awake to Washington’s tyranny.

    Binney confirmed Trump’s suspicion about surveillance to Fox News, “I think the president is absolutely right.  His phone calls, everything he did electronically was being monitored.” He added that, “Everyone’s conversations are being monitored and stored.”

    Ironically, it has been the immense wealth generated by a relatively free market in America that has provided the means for the government to create, expand, and maintain such a sophisticated and dangerous spying apparatus that is now being used on the very people funding it.  That such a situation could emerge under the supposed “checks and balances” of the US Constitution demonstrates again how truly worthless the document is in the protection of individual rights.

    While reform of the current system has proven to be futile and without any constitutional restraint, it, unfortunately, will mean that spying and the murderous US empire of which it is a part will continue as long as the economy does not collapse and the dollar retains its world reserve status.  A silver lining, therefore, from a dollar crisis, would mean a decline in the US military and security state.

    Of course, the demise of the US spy and military establishment will not be a simple process, but will be fraught with tremendous social and political upheaval and more than likely bloodshed as the Deep State will do everything in its power to protect its turf.

    While a collapse may be a ways off, it is hoped that the spying on President Trump will move him to rethink his position on the Deep State which wants to sabotage his every move that goes against its interests most notably a potential detente with Russia.  Talk of deescalation of American military presence in world affairs is anathema to the powers that be.

    In his Inaugural Address, President Trump repeatedly promised to put America first.  The nation’s intelligence agencies do not share that vision, but instead owe their allegiance to the New World Order.  If the President has not figured this out after having been secretly monitored, there is little hope for the near future.

  • NYC Isn't The Only Place The "Rent Is Too Damn High"; Euros And Canadians Also Struggle To Make Rent

    Jimmy McMillan III, the now infamous founder of the “Rent Is Too Damn High Party”, as well as a self-described karate expert, Vietnam War vet, former postal worker and male stripper, has made it his mission for the past two decades to fight rising rents in New York City that have persistently pushed lower-income families out of Manhattan to make more room for America’s Ivy-League educated, entitled snowflakes.

    But according to recent data published by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) and the  Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the Big Apple isn’t the only place where a significant portion of the population is struggling to meet monthly rent payments.  In fact, per the JCHS, the U.K., Spain and Canada join the U.S. to round out the list of the top four countries in the developed world where 20-30% of renters spend more than 50% of their gross income on rent alone.

    The US, along with Spain, exhibits more pervasive and severe rental affordability problems than the other countries considered. The analysis indicates that the greater cost burdens found among renters in the US, relative to most of the other countries, are largely due to greater income inequality, to more limited housing assistance programs, and perhaps to a housing supply consisting of units that are larger and better-equipped but that are consequently more expensive. This paper is largely focused on lessons for the US from comparisons to other countries, but hopefully it will be useful for those interested in comparisons among those other countries
     as well.

    Rent

     

    As Bloomberg points out, when you lower that threshold to 40%, the numbers are even more staggering and includes a large portion of Europe.

    REnt

     

    Meanwhile, Spain wins the award for the highest percentage of gross income that goes directly to landlords, while the U.S. and United Kingdom are a close 2nd and 3rd at around 30%.

    REnt

     

    That said, while a significant portion of renters across Europe receive some type of taxpayer-funded rent subsidy, renters in the U.S. just have to rely on their federally-subsidized student loans to cover their rent and spring break trips to Cancun.

    REnt

  • The Uncivil War And What You Can Do About It

    Authored by David Galland via GarretGalland.com,

    Not to be overly dramatic, but a civil war has begun in America. Everyone knows it to be true, but no one knows what comes next.

    The conflict of visions between freethinkers and the socialists who believe government should hammer humanity into model citizens has reached what divorce lawyers call “irreconcilable differences.”

    Evidence of the hostilities is abundant. Starting with the daily exchange of conflicting, angry “news” stories pandering only to viewers on one side of the great divide. These stories offer no conciliatory or constructive narratives, just animus, angst, and cold anger. 

    As with the first US Civil War, wide schisms have formed that now separate families and friends. Schisms that will take years to heal, and maybe never.

    The odds of this turning into an armed conflict, other than sporadic violent incidents, may seem remote. Yet the vast majority of people living in Sarajevo didn’t see that civil war coming either.

    Violent or not, the turmoil is just beginning, with the progressives and their allies in the media determined to end the Trump administration by any means possible.

    Lined up against them are the forces aligned with Trump, staunchly determined to hold the hard-won political ground.

    There can be no compromise, because Trump is the antithesis of everything his opponents believe in their heart of hearts to be sacrosanct in the Brave New World they have worked so long to create.

    It matters not a whit that history, science, and culture are replete with lessons proving that the socialist agenda leads to ruin—a ruin that is being hurried along today by sticky globs of political correctness and multiculturalism that supersede the rights of individual expression.

    But my intention this week is not to delve into the current state of US politics. Besides suffering from blistering overexposure, the topic holds less and less interest to me, living as we do in the pacific climes of the Argentine outback.

    In fact, here in Cafayate I can go the entire day without hearing Trump’s name, let alone his latest purported outrage against humanity. The decision to check in on the US “news” is, therefore, an entirely voluntary form of self-flagellation.

    I wish I could care more, but the fact is that half of the country has its head buried so far up its nether regions, it can only stumble from one excruciatingly inane idea to the next, common sense be damned. You can decide which half.

    Yet the US is a democracy, which means that for me to hope for a certain political outcome is to wish a pox on the house of about half of my fellow citizens.

    Given the country is so solidly divided, with zero chance of reconciliation, the democracy is effectively broken. Which takes us back to the point that we are in the equivalent of a civil war and no one can really know what comes next.

    In The Fourth Turning, Neil Howe and William Strauss’s excellent thesis on the generational waves that sweep through history, the “fourth turning” is a period of crisis like the Civil War or the Great Depression or World War II that fundamentally rips apart the status quo.

    The thing about these “turnings” is that you can’t anticipate them. For example, having lived through the “second turning” in this cycle, the 1960s, I can tell you that no one, but no one, anticipated the anti-government riots, the Black Panthers, the rise of recreational drugs, the drastic changes in societal attitudes about sex, fashion, etc.

    The key theme of the earth-shaking “Consciousness Revolution” of the 1960s was a desire to be free from societal norms. A revolution I personally supported.

    By contrast, the source of the conflict today—a conflict that could very well signal the beginning of a disastrous fourth turning—has to do with two different interpretations of the role of the state. That sets about half of the population against whichever government holds the reins of power.

    Given the irreconcilable differences, it can’t end well.

    The Uncivil War…

    Some years ago, my family and I voted with our feet, a decision we haven’t regretted for a moment. My father, a restless soul, always claimed to be a citizen of the world. As I aged, I came to share that opinion because, in reality, the corner of the earth we are born in is little more than the result of a cosmic crapshoot.

    Of course, those of you dear readers imbued with nationalistic fervor will feel differently.

    But imagine, if you will, being a resident of Sarajevo and seeing signs pointing to the outbreak of hostilities. Would you and your family really have been better off staying cemented in place out of some notion of national pride?

    Or wouldn’t it have been better to get the hell out of Dodge, before Dodge turned into hell?

    Don’t get me wrong, I love the now fading ideas that made America so exceptionally successful. And I think it is highly unlikely that the current unrest in American society will devolve into a bitter, armed conflict of the sort that engulfed Sarajevo.

    However, as a person who firmly believes in the principle of live and let live, and who appreciates harmony and peaceful coexistence, living in the US today with all its acrimony and hostility would be like consenting to live in a bad dream. Why would I do that when I could simply pack up, as we did, and move to a more agreeable location?

    Which finally brings me to the question of what someone living in the United States, circa now, can do to live a life free of the daily stress of walking the razor’s edge of the political divide.

    What You Can Do About It

    When you get right down to it, there are only four realistic options for dealing with the situation in the US at the moment. Or, for that matter, any country with a politically or culturally divided society, of which there are now many.

    1. Keep Your Head Down and Your Opinions to Yourself.

    If you intend to stay put, consider simply checking out of the political debate. At this point, no one is going to change their mind based on a rational discussion of the facts. So why bother?

    Sure, you can be secretly happy when your side gets a leg over on the opposition, but like bedtime gymnastics, that happiness is best left behind closed doors.

    For people like me, who suffer from a genetic disposition toward a mild form of Tourette’s Syndrome, holding my tongue while someone mindlessly spouts off socialist drivel isn’t really an option. But maybe you can pull it off.

    2. Don’t Give a Damn.

    I have a number of friends who have reached the point where they simply don’t care what the other side thinks. If someone starts a political argument, they’ll firmly tell them they are wrong and suggest various ways they might enjoy sex with themselves, or perhaps with the farm animal they rode in on, and walk away.

    They don’t get invited much to the family gatherings, but in many cases, that’s not such a bad thing.

    Unfortunately, in many parts of the US these days, publicly displaying an affinity for the ideas espoused by Trump will expose you to social ostracism and even physical attacks. If you are okay with that risk, carry on.

    3. Give a Damn.

    Go on the offensive and join the political apparatus with a steely determination to beat the opposition into submission. Raise funds for your favorite candidate, write letters to members of Congress, organize your friends to knock on doors come election time, go undercover to try and get dirt on the opposition that you can later use to chase them to ground, or even run for elected office yourself.

    Who knows, maybe your side will ultimately reduce the opposition to the point where they are politically powerless to stop the agenda you support.

    In the case of Trump, the only way his political regime will take hold for any duration is if he is able to pass his full economic agenda and it actually has time to work. Sadly, the odds of that happening are not good.

    But if you feel strongly enough about the situation, and have the time and inclination to get involved in politics, then why not go all in? At least that way, if things go badly, you can take comfort by telling yourself you did everything you could… as you are being ushered into the nearest reeducation camp.

    4. Vote with Your Feet.

    Per my earlier comments, that was the choice we made. As my then-girlfriend and now-wife and I traveled the world for three full years actively looking for our version of paradise on earth, I can provide a few tips that may help you locate your personal Shangri-La.

    A. Move in Stages.

    Some expats I know approached their exodus by selling everything and hitting the road. The first time I expatriated, that’s what I did.

    Sometimes this works out, but often times it doesn’t. That’s because without actually experiencing day-to-day life in a new culture for a reasonable period of time, it’s very hard to know whether it will suit you for a longer stay.

    That’s why I always recommend people put their primary residence in mothballs, or rent it out to generate some useful income, then rent in the new locale for three months or so.

    That gives you the time to groove into the local culture (or not), meet other expats, and question them on the pros and cons.

    Then, if everything passes the test, make the jump.

    B. Start by Deciding What Your Vision of Paradise Looks Like.

    The reality is that every place has its drawbacks. For instance, if the place is green, it means it rains a lot.

    Start with a wish list prioritized from “non-negotiable” to “nice to have, but not essential.” Our list of non-negotiables included:

    • Nice weather. It speaks volumes that over the past seven years here in Northwest Argentina, we have had to cancel exactly one game of golf due to inclement weather. One of the expats living here commented that he thought Cafayate might have the best weather in the world, and I’d have a hard time arguing with him.
    • Nice people, low or no crime. During our three-year world tour looking for paradise, we spent time in Central America but couldn’t help but noticing that every single house had walls topped with razor wire or broken bottles. Here, that is very rare. Mind you, in other places in the country like Greater Buenos Aires, Mendoza, and Cordoba, that’s not the case. But those are big cities far, far away and so not my concern. The locals here couldn’t be more friendly and welcoming. I believe it is because we are off the beaten path and the place isn’t overrun with tourists. And what tourists there are tend to be of the sort that the locals welcome because they tip well.
    • An unintrusive government. At least here in the Argentine outback, members of officialdom are largely of the night-watchman sort. Of course, after years of corruption dressed up as socialism, there is a hefty bureaucracy, but you can minimize your interaction with it by hiring competent local representation. I sincerely think that my various interactions with the government here in Argentina amount to no more than an hour a year, and I am involved in three different businesses
    •  No Mold. I am quite allergic to mold, which eliminates wet, humid areas, beach communities, etc.… so probably half of the world, if not more.
    • Low Taxes. Provided you manage your affairs intelligently, the taxes are very reasonable. And far less than the brutal toll taken by the US government.

    That pretty much covers the non-negotiables. In terms of “nice to have, but not essential,” the list is much longer, so I won’t go into it, except to mention that here in Cafayate we very much enjoy the wine, the horses, the food, the low cost of household help, and, in particular, the lively culture.

    The Argentines as a whole possess a great attitude. They love to sing, laugh, and otherwise live life to its fullest. In all sincerity, if asked how the place might be improved, I’d have a hard time coming up with an answer. I have even learned to appreciate standing in the lines that occasionally slow one’s forward progress. It’s an opportunity to practice patience, meet people, and take in your surroundings.

    C. Do Your Homework.

    Be sure to fully understand the tax regime, the sorts of banking services available, visa requirements, what it will take to buy a house or car, etc. Fortunately, in the Internet age, much of this research can be done from a distance, though in the end putting your boots on the ground is always essential.

    While the idea of cutting loose from your cultural roots may seem complicated or make you feel a bit uneasy, in my experience, making the move can radically reenergize your life.

    But in order for you to make it a positive, life-changing event, you must accept the new culture you are moving to. If you arrive expecting it to be much the same as the one you left, or try to retool it to suit your needs, you’ll set the stage for disappointment.

    On the big positive side, within a day or two of arriving, you’ll be happily surprised to find that you are free of the unending stream of acrimonious “news” that is such a prominent feature of life back in the US.

    That leaves you time to focus on more important matters, like what to have for lunch, who to play golf with, or, in my case at this particular moment, where to ride my horse this afternoon.

    I am sorry things have eroded to the point they have in the United States. It’s a damn shame, and ultimately may become a damn shame I’ll have to deal with.

    For now, however, I’ll thank my lucky stars that my path brought me to this beautiful life among the vines far from the maddened crowd.

  • The Real Obamacare Replacement Worry

    Presented with no comment…

     

    Source: Townhall.com

  • How The Black Market Is Saving Two Countries From Their Governments

    Authored by Shaun Bradley via TheAntiMedia.org,

    Ever since governments began banning and licensing different parts of the economy, the black market has made sure people still have access to the things they need. Unstable governments always turn on their own citizens by using price controls, heavy taxes, and even the threat of imprisonment to prop up their failing systems. As conditions inevitably deteriorate, as they have in Venezuela and Greece, the underground economy becomes invaluable to those living through the crisis.

    The shadow economy refers to more than just the trade of illegal goods. A grey market, for example, provides legal products that have become difficult to find. Since basic things like toilet paper, medicine, and even food have disappeared from store shelves in Venezuela, the peer-to-peer network has become the only reliable way to secure life’s necessities. In desperate situations like this, the existence of independent merchants can mean the difference between life and death.

    Even the value of Venezuela’s currency has started to move away from the government’s control.  At one point, the official exchange rate was fraudulently set at 10 bolivars per U.S. dollar, while on the black market it was trading at 1,000 to one. This action hurt millions by suppressing wages across the country and eroding any remaining trust. Inflation has quickly become the most imminent threat to the Venezuelan people, stealing the value of their labor and savings. For years, the bolivar has experienced hyperinflation, increasing the cost of living almost exponentially.

    The State’s desperate response was to institute price controls, but that has only led to shortages across the board. Luckily, the unregulated markets have been able to determine the true value of goods and provide vital support for the struggling communities. Many people think that so-called price gouging is unethical, but isn’t it better to buy what you need at twice the price than to not be able to get it at all?

    Greece is going through a transformation of its own — but in response to a very different set of circumstances. The Greek people have endured a series of tax increases and pension cuts over the past several years to fund debts owed to the European Union. These austerity measures have created a dire situation for those trying to secure their financial independence. The result has been widespread tax evasion, which has helped grow Greece’s underground economy to nearly 25% of the country’s GDP.

    Surprisingly, it’s not only the poor who are utilizing the shadow economy in Greece, but also the professional class. Those earning large amounts of money are subjected to extremely high tax rates, driving many business owners and entrepreneurs to either seek better opportunities abroad or take steps to conceal their income.

    By persecuting the most successful members of society and not allowing them to keep what they earn, authorities are only encouraging disregard for the law. Without the grey market in Greece, many more skilled workers would have already left the country. Even though the black market is consistently blamed for taking away tax revenues, it ironically may be the only thing keeping the debt crisis from spiraling even further out of control.

    Scarcity is more than just a mindset; it’s a harsh reality that people born in developed nations rarely see firsthand. But any time a bankrupt government seizes control over their citizens’ lives and the economy, the end result is always despotism. The consolidation of power into the hands of a few is rationalized during chaotic times but ultimately puts the rights of all citizens at risk.

    Just last year, Venezuelan law enforcement carried out raids that killed 245 people. There was no accountability regarding whether the shootings were justified, but reports claim that many of the victims posed no threat and some were even killed after being taken into custody. Such violent crackdowns are the inevitable result of governments attempting to maintain control amid the chaos of broken economic systems.

    In 2011, Robert Neuwirth wrote a report for Foreign Policy that highlighted the importance of this untaxed, unlicensed, and unregulated global marketplace. He called it “System D.”

    “They say that inventive, self-starting, entrepreneurial merchants who are doing business on their own, without registering or being regulated by the bureaucracy and, for the most part, without paying taxes are part of ‘l’economie de la débrouillardise.’ or, for street use, ‘Systeme D.’ This essentially translates as the ingenuity economy, the economy of improvisation and self-reliance, the do-it-yourself, or DIY, economy.”

    The nanny state has done an excellent job attacking anything outside of the government’s jurisdiction, but a lack of regulation is what allows for the most rapid growth and productivity. Legislators notoriously overestimate their influence on the millions of people they attempt to rule over, but ultimately, grassroots decisions made by individuals have the greatest impact. People who rely on their own skills and reputation rather than a bureaucratic stamp of approval are labeled criminals, but they’re the ones providing real value to society in many cases.

    Merchants in these off-grid markets are often associated with danger and violence, but in reality, they provide the purest form of voluntary transactions. Negative aspects, like organized crime, are only made possible because of the profits created as a result of prohibition. Without the State intimidating the public at gunpoint, there would be no incentive for people to seek out the services of nefarious organizations.

    These organic free markets are only strengthened with the circulation of assets like cash, bitcoin, and precious metals. Anonymity mixed with technology is empowering people in ways never imagined. The adoption of cryptocurrencies is bringing the shadow economy into the digital age and expanding its reach internationally. This new economic system represents a very real threat to the current financial and political structures.

    However, innovators in this environment have to be careful, and after the Silk Road was taken down, real legal implications became apparent. Most famously, Silk Road co-founder Ross Ulbricht was sentenced to life in prison and targeted specifically for challenging the existing system.

    The growing progression towards decentralization he attempted to catalyze is on a direct collision course with the central banks and their war on cash.  As the public’s faith in fiat money continues to wane, there will be more and more opportunities to show the benefits that come from peer-to-peer networks over central planning. Those who recognize the inherent extortion of the old system have to lead by example and educate others, regardless of which tactics of intimidation are deployed against them.

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Today’s News 10th March 2017

  • What The Hell Is Going On? – Part 3

    Via Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog,

    In Part One and Part Two of this article I revealed how the Deep State’s fake data and fake news propaganda machine can be overcome by opening your eyes, observing reality, understanding how Fed created inflation has destroyed our lives, and why the election of Trump was the initial deplorable pushback to Deep State evil.

    “The notion that a radical is one who hates his country is naïve and usually idiotic. He is, more likely, one who likes his country more than the rest of us, and is thus more disturbed than the rest of us when he sees it debauched. He is not a bad citizen turning to crime; he is a good citizen driven to despair.”H.L. Mencken

    “This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation’s attention. The regeneracy will be solidly under way.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

    We are now seven weeks into the Trump presidency and it seems like seven years with amount of incidents that have occurred before and since his inauguration. When in doubt, Trump’s brain dead, hyperventilating with hate, opponents either blame the Russians or declare him Hitler. The histrionics displayed by the low IQ hypocritical Hollywood elite, corrupt Democratic politicians, fake news liberal media and Soros paid left wing radical terrorists over the last two months has been disgraceful, revolting, childish, and dangerous.

    A counter-revolution by the gun owning normal people in the 85% red area of the country that voted for Trump would not be a pleasant experience for the paid protesters, vagina hat wearing feminazis, and the safe space anti-free speech lefties on campuses across the land.

    I must admit I love Trump’s pugnacious style. I love how he treats the despicable corporate media. I love how he responds to baseless accusations by his contemptible opponents on the left and right. The representatives of the Deep State – Schumer, Pelosi, Obama, McCain, Graham, Kristol, CNN, NYT, Washington Post, MSNBC, Soros, and anyone else willing to confront Trump are met with disdain, contempt, and abuse from the president. I love that he continues to go on the road and hold rallies with the people who elected him. I love how he demoralized his opponents by giving one of the best State of the Union speeches in history.

    I love how he put his opponents back on their heels by accusing Obama of wire-tapping Trump Tower. No punch is taken without two being thrown. He will never conform to the way the liberal corporate media and his opponents want him to behave. Twitter is the dagger he uses to avoid the fake news media filter and plunge into his opponents hearts. The faux journalists despise his use of Twitter. When you see the violence beginning to break out between Trump haters and Trump supporters, and read stories about Obama leading an insurgency to undermine Trump’s presidency, every normal person must be prepared to do whatever necessary to support his radical agenda of draining the swamp.

    “Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.”H.L. Mencken

    The fake news media scoffed when Trump declared what an awful economic mess Obama had left after eight years of a debt fueled Keynesian failure of epic proportions. These fake journalists are good at looking stylish, speaking in serious tones, and reading false narratives written for them by their corporate bosses, but impartially assessing our economic situation is beyond their pea brain comprehension.

    The eye opening chart below shows you how far we’ve come since 2000, or how far we’ve fallen, depending on your point of view. It looks to me like Trump has been handed a bucket of shit by his egotistical sociopathic boastful predecessor. Obama can now concentrate on his true passions – his NCAA pool and golf – while Trump is left to try and clean up a $20 trillion mess.

    The Bush and Obama administrations frittered away any chance for a sustainable long-term economic paradigm by fighting unnecessary wars of choice, expanding unfunded entitlements, and allowing Wall Street and their Federal Reserve puppets to fraudulently pillage the nation’s wealth. Trump has been left with a debt saturated stagnant economy with rising interest rates and declining corporate profits. This is where reality meets slogans like Make America Great Again.

    This is where understanding what happens during Fourth Turnings keeps you focused on what is likely to happen, not what you wish to happen. Slogans and false hope don’t fly during Fourth Turnings. My natural skepticism kicks in when politicians, including Trump, make promises that are mathematically impossible.

    I know we are less than two months into his presidency and no legislation has actually been submitted, let alone passed, but impartially assessing his wish list of economic priorities makes me uneasy. I’m not hubristic enough to declare his presidency a failure already, like Karl Denninger, Paul Craig Roberts and some other blowhards. Judging a man before he’s actually done anything tells me more about the judger rather than the man being judged.

    He has certainly made some questionable cabinet choices and the number of senior advisors with ties to the Vampire Squid on the Face of America (aka Goldman Sachs) is worrisome. But whenever my doubts about Trump’s agenda begin to surface, I immediately picture the crooked globalist Deep State tool Hillary Clinton making the State of the Union speech last week. And all is well with the world again. My mental funk would be a full blown suicide watch level depression if Crooked Hillary was running the show.

    US Debt and Budget

    But that isn’t going to keep me from pointing out the mathematically provable impact of his plans on the budget. We already have a $20 trillion national debt, with 10,000 Baby Boomers turning 65 years old every day for the next decade. Annual deficits are already on automatic pilot to reach $1 trillion over the next few years. This is reality. Slogans won’t change it. Hope won’t change it. Delusional optimism by consumers won’t change it. With this backdrop, Trump has proposed the following economic initiatives:

    • He’s vowed to not touch entitlements, even though they account for 50% of current spending and will grow to 60% over the next ten years.
    • He’s vowed to rebuild the military, with 50,000 more soldiers and upgrades to fighting hardware, at a cost north of $50 billion.
    • He’s floated the idea of a $1 trillion infrastructure plan.
    • The border wall will cost between $15 and $25 billion.
    • His tax reduction plans will add between $2.6 trillion and $3.9 trillion, after accounting for increased growth, over the next decade.
    • His much discussed tariffs on foreign produced goods may result in jobs staying in America, but will surely result in higher prices for people buying those goods. Whether this will be a net positive or net negative is open to debate.
    • With inflation beginning to accelerate, interest rates will rise. A 1% rise across the yield curve would result in an additional $200 billion per year in interest, a 50% increase from the current level of $400 billion.

    Discretionary spending only accounts for 15% of the entire budget. There isn’t savings anywhere near the level of spending increases baked into the budget, let alone Trump’s new grand spending plans. If Trump gets everything he has proposed, without touching entitlements, he would depart in eight years with a $30 trillion national debt and an entitlement crisis just over the horizon. Of course, the likelihood of reaching $30 trillion in debt without triggering a global financial catastrophe beforehand is about as likely as Trump making a sobbing apology to Obama for accusing him of wiretapping Trump Tower.

    As I stated at the beginning of this article, I am less sure about just about everything, as time goes on. Every day I see pronouncements from people I respect like David Stockman, Chris Martenson, Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and many others predicting a great crash in the immediate future. They will be right eventually, but they’ve been saying the same thing for the last five years. I agree with their reasoning, but I’ve given up on predicting the timing. They all have one thing in common – their living depends on you buying their newsletters and books. Certainty about looming disaster sells. Since my living doesn’t depend on selling anything, I’m comfortable pondering possibilities and trying to understand how the mood of the country will ultimately propel the unfolding events of this Fourth Turning.

    Trump has been referencing the 16% rise in the Dow since his election as proof his proposed economic policies will create millions of jobs, 4% GDP growth, and a new economic boom. That seems a little bit disingenuous, as during the debates and on the campaign trail he said the stock market was a giant bubble. He said the Fed had created multiple bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate with their QE and ZIRP “Make Bankers Rich Again” schemes. Of course, he was right.

    His honesty was refreshing. When an extremely overvalued market rises another 16% over a four month period, one might ponder whether we’ve got a blow-off top in progress. Certainly the brainless spokesmodels on CNBC or the bevy of Bloomberg stock shills paraded on camera to bloviate about why this seven year Fed induced bull market is just getting started, will not be telling Joe Sucker to sell.

    Any honest financial analyst, who has taken a Statistics course in college, knows whenever something is 2 standard deviations beyond the mean you have a rarely occurring extreme outcome. In fact, the average stock has only been more overvalued one time in stock market history – 2001. Since that market overvaluation was solely driven by dot.com stocks, median stock valuations today are even higher than 2001. This isn’t opinion or survey data.

    Doug Short and John Hussman have used impartial valuation metrics which have been accurate for over 100 years. These valuation levels are 160% above historical norms and imply a market crash of 50% to 60%, which would only bring the market back to historical averages. I wonder how many Boomers and GenXers could survive the third stock market bust in the last seventeen years.

    The cock sure Wall Street analysts are as smug about this market as they were in 2000 and 2007. They scoff at the possibility of a 50% crash even though the market crashed by 45% in 2000/2001 and plummeted by 51% over a sixteen month period in 2008/2009. As usual, there are a myriad of ridiculous rationales for why it’s different this time. There will always be absurd justifications for outlandish valuations made by those whose paychecks depend on the greater fool theory.

    John Hussman, Doug Short, Robert Schiller, and dozens of other rational thinking, honest, data oriented people are right. But that doesn’t mean the market won’t go up another 20% before the inevitable collapse. I have no idea when it will happen, but it will happen. Considering we are in year nine of a twenty year or so Fourth Turning, with the worst part yet to come, I’d venture a guess we will see the next financial crisis during Trump’s first term.

    The nattering nabobs of nonsense at the Fed and in the financial mainstream press insist their monetary machinations over the last eight years have not created inflation. They clearly believe in the theory of the bigger the lie, the more likely it is to be believed by a math challenged, technologically distracted, normalcy bias ridden populace. Anyone who thinks the $3.5 trillion of QE money was to help the people on Main Street is either a government bootlicker or an establishment crony paid to spread false propaganda. In addition to the BLS under-reporting inflation by 100%, the Fed’s monetary inflation was pumped straight into the veins of the monetary drug addict Wall Street banks.

    While Main Street wages declined and senior citizens have gotten minuscule increases in their life sustaining Social Security payments, the Wall Street bankers, who committed the greatest control fraud in world history, have gotten record bonuses and the freedom to fake their profits through legal accounting fraud (mark to fantasy).

    The purpose of TARP, QE and ZIRP has been to sustain, enrich, and keep in power a ruling class of sociopaths hell bent on pillaging the last vestiges of global wealth from unsuspecting citizens. Jamie Dimon believes everything done by the Fed and Treasury has been wonderful, as he plays tennis in his $5 million opulent NYC penthouse suite. Meanwhile, your granny has to decide between her overpriced heart medication or groceries driven higher by the Fed generated inflation.

    I don’t know when the center will give way. I don’t know when the stock market will crash. I don’t know when the Federal’s Reserve and other central banks’ shamefully reckless and illegal monetary machinations will blow up the world. I don’t know whether Trump will succeed or fail in his quest to drain the swamp. I don’t know whether the Deep State forces will take him out. I don’t know whether a civil war is on the horizon. I don’t know whether a global military conflict is in the offing. I don’t know when this greater depression will be revealed in all its glory to the millions of people with their heads up their asses in denial about reality. But, I do know whatever happens during the remainder of this Fourth Turning will be driven by debt, global disorder and civic decay, just as it has from the beginning.

    I don’t know what the hell is going on. And more often than not, I don’t care anymore. I’m tired of howling at the moon, with no result. Life gets put into perspective when a family member is struck with a totally random health issue and you have to see them suffer through treatments that make them sicker than the actual condition. I know times are going to get much tougher. I have no misconceptions Trump can somehow reverse the course of the US Titanic after it has struck the iceberg of debt.

    I believe what’s wrong with this country is unfixable. I think Trump’s legacy will be the tearing down of the corrupt, decrepit, self-serving, evil status quo. His in your face, no holds barred style so angers the established social order; they come out of the shadows to fight him. The sinister intelligence services and Soros/Obama left wing terrorists are being revealed as the true enemies of the common people. We know our enemy. That’s the first step.

    I will do my best to get my kids through college debt free as long as they pursue a serious degree. I will continue to pay down my mortgage debt as quickly as possible. I will try to deal with my own health issues and help my wife deal with hers. We will take care of our aging mothers. Family will always come first. We’re only on this earth for a short time and while I get intellectual satisfaction from trying to change hearts and minds through writing, the only thing that truly matters to me is my wife and the futures of my three sons.

    I’ll prepare to the best of my ability for the worst, while trying to enjoy the present. Over the last nine years we’ve created a dysfunctional family of internet misfits on my website. I feel an obligation to keep that alive, especially for the talented writers who have blossomed with an open platform for their views, even though my own enthusiasm has been waning for a while.

    I’ve tried my best to seek truth, reveal government deception, and generally be a thorn in the side of the establishment. Based on Mencken’s definition, I’m a dangerous man to the government, who has spread discontent among those capable of thinking things out for themselves. You may not realize it, but the war has already begun. No matter what the hell is going on, I sure hope the good guys win.

    “The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself, without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane and intolerable, and so, if he is romantic, he tries to change it. And even if he is not romantic personally he is very apt to spread discontent among those who are.”H.L. Mencken

  • Caught On Video: Radioactive Wild Boar Roam Fukushima

    With humans long gone, and robots dying off amid the radiation, Fukushima has become home to 'something else'.

    When the exclusion zone was set up almost exactly 6 years ago this week – with the surrounding towns population evacuated to a safe distance – The Mirror reports that hundreds of the wild boars, which have been known to attack people when enraged, descended from surrounding hills and forests into the deserted streets.

    Now they roam the empty streets and overgrown garden's of Japan's deserted seaside town of Namie, foraging for food.

    However, the people of Namie are scheduled to return to the town at the end of the month, which means the bloody-toothed interlopers have to be cleared.

    "It is not really clear now which is the master of the town, people or wild boars," said Tamotsu Baba, mayor of the town.

     

     

    "If we don't get rid of them and turn this into a human-led town, the situation will get even wilder and uninhabitable."

    Reuters reports that more than half of Namie's former 21,500 residents have decided not to return and face the wild boars, however, a government survey showed last year, citing concerns over radiation and the safety of the nuclear plant, which is being decommissioned.

    Wild boar meat is a delicacy in northern Japan, but animals slaughtered since the disaster are too contaminated to eat. According to tests conducted by the Japanese government, some of the boars have shown levels of radioactive element caesium-137 that are 300 times higher than safety standards.

    Authorities in the town of Tomioka say they’ve killed 800 so far, but officials there say that’s not enough, according to Japanese media. The latest statistics show that in the three years since 2011, the number of boars killed in hunts has grown to 13,000 from 3,000.

    But at town meetings earlier this year to prepare for the homecoming, residents had voiced worries about the wild boars.

    "I'm sure officials at all levels are giving some thought to this," said Hidezo Sato, a former seed merchant in Namie. "Something must be done."

    Why not send in some robots? Oh wait you tried that!

  • Republicans' Consumer Confidence Is At 9 Year Highs (Democrats Not So Much)

    Bloomberg’s consumer comfort index surged to the highest level since its peak in February 2007. However, while Republicans are the happiest since 2008, Democrats’ confidence is collapsing…

     

    But the divided America is extremely evident. Republican consumers in America have not been this ‘comfortable’ since January 2008, Democrats are the least ‘comfortable’ in 10 months.

    The last time Democrats’ consumer comfort plunged like this
    relative to Republicans was in September 2013, when President Obama
    authorized the use of force against Syria (over crossing his chemical
    weapons red line).

  • Why Force Parents To Keep Their Children In Failing Public Schools?

    Via Duane of Free Market Shooter blog,

    The nomination of Betsy DeVos was fraught with criticism from the left.  She was derided for having “no experience with public education, no political experience, no government administrative experience,” and her support for school vouchers/charter schools, among many other things.  Notably, most of the criticism came from educators, many of them members of the teachers’ unions, who have had many years and more than enough funding to fix failing public schools, with little (if any) success.

    Which all begs the question – if your student is enrolled at a failing public institution, why should he/she be forced to remain enrolled there?

    Recently, someone shared the experience of “Madeline” (the mother of a Philadelphia school student) and “Steve” (the student himself).  Their names have been changed for the purpose of this article, which as Madeline explains, is more than likely necessary, so they do not face reprisal from public school educators and administrators.  For her and her son, having a choice has meant the difference between years wasted in a failing school, and a real chance at a real education.

    Madeline and Steve, both African Americans, live with Madeline’s husband in West Philadelphia, where most families are hard working but underpaid by any standard.  Steve attended John Barry Elementary School (Grades K-8) from Kindergarten through 3rd grade.  They both described the school as “terrible,” among several other less than savory terms.  Every day there were fights, with girls pulling hair out, and kids would turn over desks/chairs before running through the halls while class was in session.  Teachers would try to break up fights, but would more often call security, who would remove the offending student.  If the issue couldn’t be resolved, parents would be called, who wouldn’t always show up to take the child away.  If teachers took away phones from students who used them during class, they would curse at teachers and administrators with little fear of reprisal, sometime assaulting teachers.

    Security consisted of one police officer.  Lockers were not considered safe, and oftentimes items left in them would be stolen by other students.  The food was considered to be “awful” by Steve, and the bathrooms were filthy, with urine on the floor and by the drains.  Classes were approximately 30 students each, with the principal changing every year.  Notably, Steve was academically ahead of his classmates – most of the students did not want to be in school, and were extremely disruptive.  Steve had one good teacher, but he noted that the teacher had difficulty actually teaching anything, since there were so many disruptive students.  Steve stated his only positive experience from the school were his field trips to a farm and a circus.

    If you look at the performance of John Barry Elementary School, you can see this for yourself.  Reproduced below are the PSSA charts for Grade 3 (the one grade listed that Steve was in attendance for), and unsurprisingly they are far below the SDP average. 

    Also below is the teacher attendance for John Barry, which is far below the SDP average as well.

    Madeline (unsurprisingly) did not want to keep Steve in John Barry, seeing it as a hostile environment to not just learning, but Steve’s safety, and his development as a person.  She feared that leaving him in this school would bring out the worst in him, and that could lead him to a life of crime or worse.  Madeline put her son on a waiting list to get into a charter school, later finding out that only 1 of every 3 applicants were accepted, and she believes some schools have a lottery.  Her son got into Mathematics, Civics, & Sciences Charter School of Philadelphia (K-12), courtesy of two friends’ cousins who used to teach at the school.

    Her son said that from the day he got to the school, he was actually learning.  The kids were all serious, and not playing around.  The teachers were “not soft, striking fear into unruly students,” and the students subsequently respected the teacher and wanted to be productive.  The teachers, in turn, trusted the kids, but there is still far more security, with one guard in each hallway.  The principal frequently interrupts classrooms and asks students what they are learning, sometimes having “guests” present to evaluate the teachers.  The most positive experience that Steve shared is the teachers are “top notch,” and he feels he is finally learning something at school.

    It’s not all perfect for Steve though – the school doesn’t have a gym, and not a lot of sports and physical education are available.  There is a basketball program, but the school needs to use facilities at other schools.  Still, that was the only negative relative to John Barry that MCS Charter had in everything that was discussed.  A recent article in Philly.com which described a similar charter school in Northeast Philadelphia was described by Madeline as “very similar” to her experience with MCS.

    Finally, Madeline was asked about Betsy DeVos – if she know who she was (she did), and of the criticisms that were sent her way.  Her answer was brief – “the criticisms are true – she doesn’t know much about public school.”  But then she added, “would anyone really want to know more about John Barry, besides how to get their student out of the school?”

    Which brings me back to the criticisms lobbed at DeVos, again by HuffPo.  They quoted some things the DeVos said in March 2015 at the SXSW conference in Texas.  Some excerpts:

    Government really sucks. And it doesn’t matter which party is in power. Having been around politics and government my entire adult life, I have five observations about government for you:
     
    Government tends to believe in top down solutions and government fears of bottom up solutions.
     
    We don’t pay teachers enough, and we don’t fire teachers enough.
     
    In that one sentence, I have raised the ire of both the Republican and Democrat political establishments.
     
    The Republicans don’t want to pay our best teachers enough, and the Democrats don’t want to reform tenure laws. It’s another partisan standoff.
     
    But I am willing to bet that every one of you had one or more teachers who made a big difference in your life, who opened your eyes to possibilities and to opportunities. You probably recall them in your mind’s eye right now.
     
    And likewise, I am pretty sure that every one of you had one or more teachers who should not have been teaching. That doesn’t mean they were bad people, or maybe they were, but regardless, they weren’t any good at teaching. You are probably thinking of those teachers right now.
     
    And by the way, teaching is hard. It takes a lot of skill. Not everyone who tries can do it well. We need to admit that and act accordingly.
     
    We should reward and respect great teachers by paying them more, and we should stop rewarding seniority over effectiveness.

    As it applies to education, you would be hard pressed to find Madeline not in agreement with DeVos.  Top-down solutions to education and government (read: teachers’ union) fears of bottom up solutions to education have led to a public school system that is behind the curve in nearly all examples.

    This is not hyperbole – the US spends approximately $115,000 per student, which is fifth globally, behind only Austria, Luxembourg, Norway and Switzerland.  But throwing money at the problem has not led to increased performance, as the Pew Research Center recently analyzed – our students score similar to the Slovak Republic, which spends less than half, at $53,000 per student:

    What a surprise – a PISA report has noted the following:

    …among OECD countries, “higher expenditure on education is not highly predictive of better mathematics scores in PISA.”

    We can reasonably conclude that instead of trying to throw money at the problem, it appears Betsy DeVos intends to “fix” the public school system by giving parents a choice of where to send their students to school.  She appears prepared to use the exorbitant cost of public education to finance this choice, and forcing all schools financed with public dollars to become far more accountable for their own performance.  Who ends up the big loser?  Obviously, failing public schools – if enough students leave the failing schools behind, they will be forced to shutter their doors.

    It should be of no surprise then, that teachers’ unions are fighting charter schools at every turn.  A recent Forbes article did an exemplary job of dissecting their opposition:

    Teachers’ unions often fight charter schools by claiming that they are less accountable to students and families because many operate under less burdensome regulations than do traditional public schools. The real reason for their opposition, of course, is that charter school teachers are not unionized. The reality is that charter schools are much more accountable to young people and their parents than are traditional public schools. If parents do not like their children’s charter schools, they can send their kids elsewhere. This threat of exit gives charter schools an incentive to raise the quality of the education they offer in order to retain students.

     

    Despite union scaremongering, the verdict is in on charter schools: The public favors them 2 to 1. Among African Americans, who are arguably the biggest beneficiaries of alternative schooling options, the favorability ratio is greater than 3 to 1. Even public school teachers desert the union position on charter schools by a slim margin—38% of teachers favor them, and 35% are opposed.

    With a favorability rating of 3 to 1 among African Americans, the ethnic group with the largest percentage of students in failing public schools, it should be quite surprising to learn that the NAACP opposes charter schools.  Recently, the NAACP ratified a controversial resolution calling for a moratorium on expansion of charter schools, and stronger oversight of charter schools currently in existence.

    Publications ranging from U.S. News to The National Review have struggled to answer this question:

    The NAACP board will vote this weekend on a resolution urging a moratorium on the creation of new charter schools, on grounds that they worsen segregation and erode local control. This is not a new position for the nation’s oldest civil-rights organization, but it’s gotten more support than ever before — for example, from groups such as those affiliated with Black Lives Matter — and has drawn thoughtful repudiations by the New York Times and the Washington Post as well as the Wall Street Journal. As the Post’s editorial board noted, “that the beneficiaries of [charters] are, in large part, children of color hopefully is not lost on an organization that is supposed to be looking out for the interests of minority people.”

    But Education Week said what no one else would:

    “The African-American community was shut out of power and authority for so many years, even if African-Americans see the warts on the local district, it’s their district.”

    So something else needs to be said, because no one else has said it: if you want your failing public school, you can keep your failing public school – no one is forcing anyone to put their kids into a charter school.  But do not take away the option for someone else to remove their child from a toxic environment, and make their own choice on whatever they feel is the best place to send their children to school.

    Betsy DeVos wasn’t brought in to enact more “reforms” or toss more money at what appears to be an unsolvable problem – instead, it appears she intends to do something that no one else has done in the past – give more students a choice of what to do with their education.  The criticisms about her are all correct – she isn’t well versed in public school education, something she readily admits, but knows that it is failing our country’s students, no matter how much time and money has been spent for who knows how long to repair it.  Isn’t a new approach long overdue?

    Take note – former President Obama sent his kids to Sidwell Friends, a private school in the D.C. area.  And who can blame him?  D.C. public schools recently ranked dead last in the nation.  Why should the rest of our nation’s students be given a “one size fits all” approach to public education, when that “one size” is a well-funded yet underperforming public school system?

     

  • South Korea's President Has Been Removed From Office After Court Upholds Impeachment

    South Korea’s constitutional court has voted unanimously, 8-0, to uphold the impeachment of President Park Guen-hye, removing her from office after a 92-day leadership crisis and triggering a presidential election in the weeks to come. A snap election my be held within 60 days.

    The ruling, which was announced by the court’s acting chief and televised live, made Park the nation’s first democratically elected leader to be ousted. She was impeached by parliament on Dec. 9 on charges of letting a close friend meddle in state affairs, colluding with her to extort money from conglomerates, and neglecting her duties during a 2014 ferry sinking that killed more than 300.

    The court’s decision strips Park of her immunity from criminal prosecution, which will force her to undergo interrogation by prosecutors over her alleged crimes.


    President Park Geun-hye (R) and Lee Jung-mi, acting chief of the Constitutional Court

    “The Constitutional Court’s decision is equivalent to demanding legal accountability for President Park’s failure to properly run state affairs,” said Yang Seung-ham, honorary professor at Seoul’s Yonsei University. “Now the public should accept the ruling.”

    The nation has been sharply divided along ideological and generational lines since the scandal broke in October, pushing millions of people into the streets to rally for or against the impeachment.

    Park’s problems began in October, when revelations emerged about the influence Park’s confidante and adviser Choi Soon-sil had over the President. Choi is currently on trial for abuse of power and fraud. What followed later was 5 months of at times sheer chaos (see full timeline below) culminating with today’s decision.

    Local media and opposition parties had accused Choi of abusing her relationship with the president to force companies to donate millions of dollars to foundations she runs. She denies all charges against her.

    Hundreds of thousands of South Koreans braved the brutally cold winter temperatures to take to the streets of Seoul and call for Park’s ouster.

    In a brief televised apology however, Park made it clear that she had no intentions of resigning. In December, the National Assembly voted 234 to 56 to impeach her.

    Park was impeached in December after being accused of corruption. She is alleged to have let her close confidante Choi Soon Sil meddle in state affairs and conspired with her to extort money from major companies including Samsung.

    Local pundits cited by Yonhap said the court’s decision demonstrated that South Korea’s democratic system is firmly in place. “We have undergone a process of resolving considerable conflict and differences in a predictable manner through legal procedures stipulated in the Constitution,” said Park Myoung-kyu, a sociology professor at Seoul National University. “Now is the time to calm down and turn (the conflict) into policy debates and arguments.”

    The president’s supporters and detractors rallied outside the court as police officers and police buses were deployed to prevent a possible clash.

    * * *

    Below is the full timeline of the Park scandal:

    October

    24 – South Korean cable TV network JTBC reports that Park’s longtime friend Choi edited some of the president’s speeches. Prosecutors were already investigating claims that Choi had used her relationship with Park to raise funds for two foundations.
    25 – Park apologizes on national television, saying Choi had access to dozens of presidential speeches before they were made public.
    29 – Thousands of anti-government protesters gather in Seoul, calling for Park’s resignation. Organizers estimate the crowd at 20,000; police put attendance at 9,000.
    31 – As Choi arrives at the prosecutors’ offices, following a two-month stay in Germany, she apologizes, saying she has committed “an unpardonable crime.” Late that night, prosecutors place Choi in emergency detention.

    November

    1 – Prosecutors raid the offices of eight banks. Choi is suspected, among other things, of getting preferential treatment from local banks for loans.
    2 – Park nominates a new prime minister, Kim Byong Joon, a member of an opposition party, in a bid to quell the controversy.
    3 – A South Korean district court issues an arrest warrant for Choi. Kim, the prime minister-designate, says Park could be investigated, saying, “Everyone is equal before the law.”
    4 – Park again apologizes on TV, saying she will cooperate in the investigation.
    5 – Thousands of protesters take to the streets of Seoul to demand Park’s resignation. Organizers say about 100,000 people participate; police put the number at 40,000.
    6 – Prosecutors issue warrants for two of Park’s former aides, AnChong Bum and Jeong Ho Seong, who both resigned the previous week. Prosecutors continue to question Choi.
    8 – Prosecutors search the offices of electronics giant Samsung. Park says she will withdraw her nominee for prime minister.
    12 – The biggest protest yet takes place near the presidential palace in Seoul. Organizers say 500,000 people participate; police put the number at 190,000. Protests are planned in 40 other cities in South Korea and abroad.
    13 – Prosecutors say they plan to question Park.
    17 – South Korea’s parliament passes a bill to open up an independent enquiry into Park’s friendship with Choi. The legislation seeks 60 investigators and a special prosecutor to lead the case.
    19 – Protestors again gather in Seoul.
    20 – Prosecutors say Park is likely to have played a role in the corruption scandal but that they cannot indict her, as the country’s constitution guarantees the president immunity “except in cases of insurrection or treason.”
    21 – The country’s largest opposition party says it will take steps to begin impeachment proceedings against Park.

    December

    1 – South Korea’s ruling party pushes for Park to resign in April, saying presidential elections planned for the end of 2017 could be brought forward to June.
    2 – The country’s three opposition parties say they will vote December 9 on impeachment, even if Park announces a plan to resign. Park plans to meet with members of her own ruling party over the weekend.
    3 – Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators march within 100 metres of Park’s official residence.
    6 – Park says she won’t immediately resign if impeached. Five thousand South Koreans file a lawsuit demanding compensation from Park for mental suffering caused by the scandal.
    9 – Lawmakers including members of her own party vote to impeach Park
    16 – In a 24-page document, Park’s lawyers argue that there is no legal foundation for her removal.
    19 – Park’s influential friend Choi Soon Sil goes on trial on charges of abuse of authority and attempted fraud.

    January

    3 – The first open hearing in Park’s impeachment trial is held. As expected, she does not attend.

    February

    17 – Samsung heir Lee Jae Yong is arrested over bribery allegations linked to the corruption scandal.

    March

    9 – Lee denies bribing Park and Choi on the first day of his trial
    10 – The Constitional Court upholds Park’s impeachment

  • Illinois State Senator Pushes Bill Allowing Government To Confiscate Guns Without Due Process

    Via Daniel Lang of SHTFPlan.com,

    There are people in our government who are determined to chip away at our Second Amendment rights, and they are an insidious bunch.

    Rarely do they make blatant gun grabbing attempts. Typically they push for policies that quietly set back gun rights. They like laws that merely set precedents without alarming the public, and they’ve been doing it successfully for decades.

    The latest of these attempts comes from Illinois, one of the least gun friendly states in America. State Senator Julie Morrison has proposed a bill titled SB 1291, which would allow the government to confiscate firearms from citizens without any due process. According to Breitbart:

    SB 1291 would create a “Lethal Order of Protection” whereby the firearms of Illinois residents could be confiscated if a family member or “law officer” files a petition stating the gun owner “poses an immediate and present danger of causing personal injury to himself, herself, or another by having … [a firearm] in his or her custody or control.”

     

    SB 1291’s summary states:

     

    [The bill] provides that the petition shall also describe the type, and location of any firearm or firearms presently believed by the petitioner to be possessed or controlled by the respondent. Provides that the petitioner may be a family member of the respondent or a law enforcement officer, who files a petition alleging that the respondent poses a danger of causing personal injury to himself, herself, or another by having in his or her custody or control, owning, purchasing, possessing, or receiving a firearm. Establishes factors that the court must consider before issuing a lethal violence order of protection. Provides for the issuance of ex parte orders and one year orders.

    Basically if this bill passes, then a resident of Illinois could have his or her firearms confiscated if a family member alleges that the person in question is an immediate threat to himself or others. All they have to do is file a petition and report that allegation to the government. I say allegation, because under this bill, no real proof is required to take away someone’s firearms.

    Moreover, the input and presence of the person who is targeted is not required during this process. If this happened to you, it wouldn’t even be your word against theirs. You wouldn’t be able to defend yourself in court at all.

    However, what may be more alarming about this bill, is it that states that a “law enforcement officer” can file one of these petitions. Does that mean that the cops could have your weapons confiscated on a whim?

    The gun grabbers in our society have tried to set a lot of bad legal precedents over the years. Let’s pray that this doesn’t become one of them.

  • "It Can Only Disappoint" – What Wall Street Expects From Friday's Payrolls Report

    Following Wednesday’s blowout ADP report, which printed some 40K jobs higher than the highest estimate, the only possibility for tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll report, the last major economic data point before the Fed’s March 15th rate hike announcement, is to disappoint, especially in terms of wages (which in light of the recent downward revision of Q1 GDP by the Atlanta Fed to 1.2% is not out of the question). That possibility, however, is slim to none if one looks at Wall Street’s forecasts, where virtually every sellside analyst boosted their NFP estimate in the hours after the ADP number. Still, with the market pricing in a 100% chance of a rate hike, only a very disappointing – think less than 100K – report will derail the Fed from hiking for the second time in three meetings.

    Here are some of the more notable forecasts for tomorrow’s number::

    • Westpac 170K
    • Bank of America 185K
    • BNP 185K
    • Barclays 200K
    • Deutsche Bank 200K
    • Goldman Sachs 215K
    • Nomura 235K
    • Morgan Stanley 250K

    Putting it all together, here is what Wall Street expects from the February payrolls report due out at 8:30am ET tomorrow morning:

    • Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: Exp. 193K (Prey. 227K, Dec. 157K)
    • Unemployment Rate Exp. 4.70% (Prey. 4.80%, Dec. 4.70%)
    • Average Hourly Earnings M/M Exp. 0.30% (Prey. 0.10%, Dec. 0.20%)

    Consensus calls for an increase of 193K jobs in February, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.7% from 4.8%. Much of the focus could be on average hourly earnings for signs of inflationary pressure. Last month, average hourly earnings disappointed with Y/Y wage growth slowing to 2.5% from 2.9%. This month, average hourly earnings are expected to pick up to 2.7% Y/Y with monthly growth of 0.3%.

    A look at recent data, courtesy of RanSquawk

    Labor market data has continued to be strong. Initial jobless claims have fallen their lowest level since March 1973. The employment components from the two most recent ISM reports also indicate an improving labour market. The non-manufacturing ISM employment component showed increased from 54.7 to 55.2 while the manufacturing component showed further expansion, albeit at a slightly slower pace at 54.2. Wednesday’s ADP employment report showed a massive 298K jobs created in February, above the expected 190K, although there is often a large discrepancy between the ADP and the official Nonfarm Payrolls figures and it cannot be relied on as an accurate indicator of Friday’s report.

    Factors arguing for a stronger report:

    • Jobless claims. Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits moved lower, averaging 244k during the five weeks between the January and February payroll survey periods. This represents the lowest level of claims on this basis since the 1970s. The impact of seasonal adjustment difficulties on the jobless claims data is most pronounced in January, the sustained improvement in jobless claims through February suggests improvement in the underlying pace of layoffs, and in the labor market more broadly.
    • ADP. ADP reported a 298k rise in private payroll employment in February, its fastest pace in nearly three years and well above expectations of +187k. Large surprises in the ADP report tend to be predictive of the subsequent nonfarm payroll surprise. Additionally, the 66k rise in ADP construction employment suggests scope for above-trend growth in weather-sensitive payrolls categories.
    • Warm temperatures and minimal snowfall. February exhibited unseasonably warm weather and relatively limited snowfall, both of which are likely to boost payrolls in weather-sensitive industries. According to NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data, snowfall during the calendar month totaled 4.0 inches, the third lowest accumulation in a February since 2006. Snowfall was also unseasonably low during the payrolls survey week, and as shown in Exhibit 1, such a pattern is associated with strong growth in weather-sensitive industries, including construction, retail trade, and leisure and hospitality.
    • Service sector surveys. Most employment components of service sector surveys either improved or remained at elevated levels in February, and all remained in expansionary territory. The ISM non-manufacturing employment component rose to a 5-month high (0.5pt to 55.2), the New York Fed index increased to a 18-month high (+1.8pt to +18.9, SA by GS), and the Dallas Fed employment component edged up (+1.1pt to +5.9). Meanwhile, the Philly Fed non-manufacturing employment index pulled back from a 1-year high (-7.1pt to +12.4) and the Richmond Fed employment index edged down (-1pt to +7), though both indices remained at encouraging levels. The key labor market subcomponent of the consumer confidence report also remained strong (-0.1pt to +5.9), less than a point below cycle highs. Service sector payroll employment increased 192k in January and has increased 165k on average over the last six months.
    • Seasonals. Since 2010, February payroll growth has surprised positively relative to consensus in six of the seven instances, with an average surprise of +36k. This may suggest some additional upside risk to the extent the BLS seasonal factors have not fully evolved to reflect this tendency.

    Factors arguing for a weaker report:

    • Federal Hiring Freeze. The new administration’s hiring freeze for federal workers (excluding defense and public safety) went into effect on January 23rd, one week into the February payrolls survey period. Some departments may be able to circumvent the impact of the hiring freeze though reduced attrition or increased contracted hiring. However, news reports have indicated reduced government hiring in some subindustries/departments, such as shipbuilding and social assistance/child care. Accordingly, the hiring freeze may weigh on government payrolls in tomorrow’s report, with an overall drag in categories affected of 10k-15k.
    • Labor Supply Constraints. Economists view the labor market as close to full employment, and as slack diminishes further, this should exert upward pressure on wages and potentially downward pressure on job growth – particularly as the unemployment rate in a given industry or geography falls meaningfully below its structural rate. In the February NFIB small business survey, 32% of firms reported having job openings that were hard to fill, the highest percentage since 2001. Additionally, the Beige Book for the March FOMC meeting included anecdotal evidence of more widespread labor scarcity, as some districts reported labor shortages of skilled workers and of workers in the leisure and hospitality, construction, and manufacturing sectors.  Over the past two years, this trend toward diminished slack has coincided with slowing payrolls growth, raising the possibility that labor supply issues may already be constraining job growth at the margin. The right panel of the same exhibit compares job growth with labor market slack across industries. Below-average unemployment rates in 3Q16 were associated with below-trend job growth over the subsequent four months, potentially suggestive of labor supply effects.
      Tentative Evidence that Labor Supply Constraints Are Beginning to Weigh on Job Growth

    • Transportation jobs. Transportation and warehousing payrolls have seen elevated growth in December in recent years followed by softer growth or outright declines in January and February, a phenomenon likely driven by the combination of the secular shift toward online holiday sales and the slow evolution of the BLS seasonal factors. Payroll data this winter have so far exhibited the same pattern, and we expect tomorrow’s report to show restrained growth in the transportation and warehousing industry as a result.
    • Job availability. The Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online (HWOL) report showed a sharp decrease in online job postings (-7%), the third consecutive monthly decline. However, we place limited weight on this indicator at the moment in light of research by Fed economists that suggests the HWOL ad count has been depressed by higher prices for online job ads.

    Neutral Factors:

    • Manufacturing sector surveys. The employment components of manufacturing surveys were mixed in February, though all remained in expansionary territory. The ISM manufacturing employment component pulled back from to a 30-month high (-1.9pt to 54.2), and the Philly Fed employment index also slowed (-1.7pt to +11.1). Meanwhile, the Kansas City Fed (+11pt to +17), Empire State (+3.7pt to +2.0), Dallas Fed (+3.5pt to +9.6), and Richmond Fed (+2pt to +10) employment indices improved. The Chicago PMI employment index also rebounded back into expansionary territory. Manufacturing payroll employment rose 5k in January, its second consecutive increase.
    • Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas after our seasonal adjustment declined by 2k to 33k in February, though the level of announced layoffs remains somewhat above recent lows.

    Fed Impact

    The Fed speak in the week before the blackout period was consistent with a hike at the March meeting, but despite signalling rate increases going forward, most cautioned that path of rate increases will be gradual. Most have also stated that the labor market is at or near full employment and so focus will be on the wage data for expectations on the number of hikes this year. As mentioned previously, the average hourly earnings data disappointed last month but if earnings pick up faster than expected it could lift expectations for the number of rate hikes in 2017, with markets currently split between two to three hikes this year. The Fed’s most recent projections also saw most Committee members favouring either two or three hikes in 2017.

    Market Reaction

    As usual with the NFP report, there is often a kneejerk reaction to the headline payrolls number. A stronger than expected number historically sends the USD higher and Treasuries lower and vice versa for a weaker number, before markets digest some of the other details of the report.

    If wages disappoint for the second month in a row, then markets may begin to ease back their hiking expectations for the rest of the year and we could see some steepening of the Treasury curve after the flattening observed in the wake of the strong ADP report on Wednesday. For markets to price out a rate hike in March, wage growth would probably need to slow markedly and the headline NFP number to fall well below 100K.

    * * *

    Finally, here is the all-important Goldman’s preview (exp. +215K):

    • We estimate that February nonfarm payrolls increased 215k in February, following +227k in January and compared to the three-month moving average of +183k. Reasons to expect a strong report include favorable weather effects, the strong hiring trends indicated in the ADP employment report, and a further drop in jobless claims to their lowest levels since the 1970s.
    • We estimate that the unemployment rate fell one tenth to 4.7%, driven by continued household employment growth and a potential pullback in the participation rate following last month’s 0.2pp rise. The January unemployment rate rose to 4.78% on an unrounded basis after hitting a cycle low of 4.65% in November. 
    • We also forecast average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month over month and 2.7% year over year, reflecting tightening labor markets and the continued impact of state-level minimum wage hikes.
    • Labor market indicators generally strengthened in February, with a drop in jobless claims to four-decade lows, an acceleration in ADP employment growth to its fastest pace in nearly three years, and improvement in the ISM services employment index to a 5-month high. We also believe unseasonably warm temperatures and minimal snowfall boosted job growth in weather-sensitive industries. On the negative side, we look for a 10-15k drag in the government sector from the federal hiring freeze implemented in late January (we forecast +225k for private payrolls). Additionally, we believe diminished labor market slack may exert upward pressure on wages and possibly some downward pressure on job growth in certain industries.
    • We estimate the unemployment rate fell one-tenth to 4.7%, driven by continued household employment growth and a potential pullback in the participation rate following last month’s 0.2pp rise. The January unemployment rate rose to 4.78% on an unrounded basis after hitting a cycle low of 4.65% in November.
    • Finally, we estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month over month and 2.7% year over year, reflecting diminished labor market slack, firming wage growth, and the continued impact of January’s state-level minimum wage hikes, which affected 19 states and increased the effective national minimum wage by about $0.25 (to $8.50 per hour). In this context, we were surprised by the relatively muted wage growth in the January report (+0.1% mom), and we note the possibility of upward revisions or above-trend growth in tomorrow’s report.

  • "They're Erupting": Alaskan Volcano Throws Ash 35,000 Feet Interrupting Commercial Flights

    Via Mac Slavo of SHTFPlan.com,

    Volcanic eruption in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands as seen from ISS.

    Is a major seismic event headed our way?

    There is no way to know for sure, but science warns that hotspots like the San Andreas fault in Southern California are “overdue” for the big one, which frequently occurs every hundred years or so. If the earth doesn’t release enough steam from time to time, larger pressures can build up, creating event more catastrophic disasters.

    A volcano in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands has been erupting quite a bit lately – and has now had its biggest eruption so far in recent months, sending volcanic ash hurling some 35,000 feet into the air, high enough to disrupt commercial flights. That was the Bogoslof Volcano.

    //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    It was a spectacular, if not unsettling event.

    Meanwhile, there was a new lava outbreak that was observed in Hawaii.

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    It seems clear that things are heating up – they are beginning to erupt.

    Though things are not necessarily causally linked, there is often a chain of seismic disruptions that occur during a short span of time, and when things heat up in one part of, say, the Pacific Ring of Fire, things sometime explode elsewhere down the line.

    Could the intense three hour eruption at Bogoslof Volcano be a sign of bigger events to come? There is frequent seismic activity in the Aleutian Islands, to be sure, but there is also the sense of something immense building up from inside an angry earth.

    via RT:

    An Alaskan volcano experienced its largest eruption to date and created a large ash cloud. For the past several months, Bogoslof Volcano has had minor eruptions, but the most recent was its strongest, sending ashes 35,000 feet above sea level.

     

    Residents of the Aleutian Islands are under ash advisory …

     

    The spectacle lasted three hours and was marked by 200 lightning strikes, until it “just shut off,” according to Wallace. While the event did not disrupt air traffic, that may have been sheer luck. Any eruption above 20,000 feet can pose a risk to flights traveling between Asia and the US. In addition, Bogoslof could again erupt at any time.

    #Bogoslof volcanic ash cloud, 12:45 am March 8 ASKT. Cloud height >35K ft. Img by Dave Schneider, #USGS/AVO. https://t.co/YJkZa2ZT38 pic.twitter.com/FVE98ahxf8

    //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Are things heating up? Is something massive about to happen?

     

    Stay vigilant, have your preps and escape routes ready, and steady yourself for what may well be trying times ahead.

  • 31% Of College Students Spend Their Loans On Spring Break

    As Washington D.C. liberals continue their fight for ‘free’ college education for all (which, of course, is just a nicer way of saying largely useless community college education crammed down the throats of taxpayers) and student loan forgiveness programs, a new study from LendEDU reveals some of the shocking realities behind where college students are really spending their $1.3 trillion worth of student debt. 

    Per a survey of 500 college co-eds, LendEDU found that 31% of students, or roughly 2.4 million kids, admitted to using student loan money to fund their binge drinking trips to Cancun and Daytona Beach for spring break.

    According to the LendEDU poll, 30.60% of college students with student debt claim that they are using money they received from student loans to help pay for their spring break trip this year. For reference, you can use student loan funding for living expenses.

     

    The National Center for Education Statistics calculated that 20.5 million students will be attending college this year in the United States. Orbitz reported that 55% of students will be going on spring break. Using this data, we can roughly calculate that 11,275,000 students will be going on spring break this year. And, it is estimated that 69% of all current college students use student loan debt by the time of graduation. By doing some additional arithmetic, we can calculate that roughly 7,779,750 student debtors are going on spring break this year.

     

    Factoring in our data, and assuming the claims made in our survey are accurate, this means that 2.38 million students are using money received from student loans to pay for their spring break excursion this year.

    But don’t worry yourselves you silly taxpayers…it’s only $1.3 trillion (and counting) of debt that you’ll soon have to cover.

    Student Loan Debt

     

    Adding insult to injury, 24% of students admitted to using their student loan money for alcohol and 7% use those federally-subsidized checks for drugs.

    Nearly a quarter (23.80%) of respondents stated that they have used money received from student loans to pay for drinking some type of alcohol. This answer also included spending money at bars.

     

    A third (33.40%) of students answered that they have used money received from student loans to pay for clothing and other accessories.

     

    Similarly, the same amount (33.40%) of students said that they have used money received from student loans to pay for restaurants and take-out.

     

    6.60% of respondents responded saying that they have used money received from student loans to pay for drugs.

     

    Finally, 5.60% of students that participated in our survey stated that they used money received from student loans on gambling or sports betting.

    “Students should minimize their borrowing during their college years and live a sparse lifestyle — but no one wants to hear that when their fraternity brothers or sorority sisters are packing up to Cabo for the week,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst of Bankrate.com.  “It’s like putting spring break on a credit card, but this one is subsidized by taxpayers,” McBride added.

    Meanwhile, as we pointed out before (see “Obama Student Loan Foregiveness Plan To Cost Taxpayers $137 Billion, GAO Finds“), the GAO currently estimates that taxpayers will ultimately have to cover $137 billion of student loan debt outstanding…an obligation we’re certain will only grow over time.

    Student Loans

     

    So fight on, Bernie…and while you continue your crusade for “free college,” America’s entitled millennials will be laughing all the way to Cancun. 

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Today’s News 9th March 2017

  • Are We Witnessing The Weirdest Moment In Economic History?

    Via Brandon Smith of Alt-Market.com,

    It is an unfortunate reality that most people tend to be oblivious to massive sea changes in geopolitics and economics. You would think that these events would catch the immediate attention of everyone as they happen, but usually it is not until they realize that the microcosm of their personal lives is subject to the consequences of the macrocosm that they wake up and take notice.

    There are, however, ways to train yourself to pick up on signals within the news cycle and within political and financial rhetoric; signals that indicate a great shift is perhaps on the way. Sometimes these initial signs are subtle, sometimes they are as subtle as a feminist slut-walk. I would point out that over the next few months there are dangerous correlations so numerous and blatant in the economic sphere that I would almost rather watch a marching gaggle of frumpy feminists wearing nothing but electrical tape than bear witness to the mayhem that is about to strike the unwitting public.

    What am I talking about? Well, let’s go through the list…

    Federal Reserve Meeting March 14-15th

    As my readers know well, I have been warning since before the election that the Fed would use a Trump presidency as an opportunity to pull the plug on near-zero interest rates and remove a primary pillar supporting stock markets — stock buybacks made possible by free overnight loans to numerous banks and corporations. Without QE and low interest rates the equities bubble will inevitably implode.

     

    Corporate earnings certainly aren’t holding up stocks, neither is GDP or consumer spending. The Fed is the only determining factor of the ongoing bull market. Anyone who claims otherwise is probably a mainstream analyst or overzealous day trader with a vested interest in keeping the illusion going.

     

    It is not surprising to me at all that the “rate hike odds” for March have been increased by mainstream analysts to 90% in the span of a week. I don’t know why anyone uses these arbitrary odds as an indicator of anything. I’ve been receiving emails all month asking me if I still believe the Fed will hike rates while the odds are “so low.” Look, the Fed does not make decisions at these meetings. They make decisions months in advance and the meetings are window dressing.

     

    Too many people operate under the delusion that the central bank wants to continue propping up stocks, which is why they cannot grasp why the Fed would raise rates. In reality, the stage has been perfectly set to allow the bubble to implode. When the elites have a perfect scapegoat, they use it, and conservative movements represent that perfect scapegoat today.

    The important thing to remember, though, is the timing of this particular meeting…

     

    U.S. Debt-Ceiling Suspension Ends March 15th

    So, in case you weren’t tracking the economic situation two years ago, the U.S. government almost went bust (in a sense) in 2015. The debt ceiling sets limits on how much the government can borrow to fund itself, and that limit was hit hard under the Obama administration after he managed to nearly double the national debt during his tenure. Congress passed legislation to allow borrowing to continue until March 2017, and of course, much of that capital was “borrowed” from the Federal Reserve, which, of course, creates it out of thin air. With the return of the debt ceiling, the question is — will Congress be able to extend and delay again? With Trump running on a platform of fiscal responsibility, CAN they extend again?  Do they even want to, or is this an engineered crisis event?

     

    Once again, the timing of all this is a little odd. The Fed is raising rates into the first year of the Trump presidency leaving equities increasingly open to destabilization. In addition, the government might not be able to continue borrowing from them, or there will be a renewed extension but the costs of borrowing will run much higher. In either case, this month seems to pronounce the beginning of something; a considerable move away from the standard operating procedures that the elites have been using for the past several years. With such changes come consequences, always.

     

    Formal Initiation Of Brexit On March 15th

    The skeptics have been telling me for months that even though I was right about the Brexit vote victory the elites “would never allow” the British to leave the EU. Well, it doesn’t look that way to me so far. Theresa May plans to formally notify the EU of British exit on March 15th triggering two years of negotiations which will undoubtedly send economic shock waves throughout the globe on a regular basis.

     

    Of course the Brexit will move forward! Why not? Globalists need a continuing atmosphere of crisis to distract the masses from their great global reset, and they need multiple scapegoats for the economic disaster that their reset will cause. Enter conservative movements in Europe; once again the perfect target to pin a crisis on.

     

    French Elections Start April 23rd, End May 7th

    Yet another election in which the EU hangs in the balance. Recent polls indicate that Marine Le Pen, the designated “populist" candidate, is falling behind. I have to ask, though, have we not learned our lesson yet on the meaninglessness of political polls? I think most of us have.

     

    I believe Le Pen will be one of the final two candidates to move on to the election in May, and though I am not as certain as I was on Brexit and Trump, I am going to go ahead and predict a Le Pen win. If there is any sizable terrorist event in the next couple of months in the EU, or expanded Muslim riots, she is a guaranteed win. This brings up the very real prospect of a “Frexit” in the near future, and analysts should expect that a Le Pen win will be met with some panic in the financial world.

     

    Potential Italian Election Move On April 30th

    The Italian political process is a little confusing to me, but what I can tell you is that this spring or early summer you will probably be hearing a lot more about it. Former Italian prime minister and current Italian Democratic Party leader Matteo Renzi is set to decide on a the date for a leadership vote, which may come as early as April 30th. The outcome of this vote will likely decide how soon the next official Italian election will take place.

     

    The election is required to be held before May 2018, but there is increasing pressure to hold elections in 2017, perhaps even this coming summer. I would not be at all shocked to see a surprise announcement of an early Italian election after the leadership vote is held.

     

    Why should anyone care? The consensus is that Renzi’s party will be overrun by anti-EU factions and that this may result in a kind of “Italiexit.” The outcome of Italy’s series of votes and political restructuring will have wide reaching effects on the psychology of the markets for many months to come.

     

    German Federal Election Held September 24th

    Yes, even Germany is quaking this year in the wake of a potential “populist” tsunami. Angela Merkel is exceedingly unloved by her own people lately as her approval ratings collapse. Once-silent sovereignty champions in the country are becoming more and more vocal about Merkel’s rather insane open immigration policies which were the key element that drew millions of Muslims into the EU. It was the German government’s promise of endless entitlement programs that created the incentive for the mass migration in the first place, and now, finally, the German people are fed up with the complete lack of cultural assimilation and what many see as the destruction of western values.

     

    I do not think that Germany will abandon the supranational concept of the EU regardless of the outcome of the election, but the removal of Merkel would signal a less agreeable Germany, which would exacerbate the already tottering European Union. Meaning more economic uncertainty in 2017.

    If You Thought 2016 Was Weird…

    If you thought 2016 was weird, I suggest you get comfortable with the surreal because it is not going away anytime soon. 2017 is a veritable treasure trove of falling elevators, and I haven’t even covered half of the issues facing the economy this year. But what about the macro-analysis?

    To summarize, it seems to me that many of these events, stacked so closely together, are not coincidental in their timing. As I have noted in articles such as The Economic End Game Explained, globalists have been openly planning for decades to set in motion a vast financial overhaul and the launch of a single global economy and currency (the seeds being planted starting in 2018). If this is still their timeline, then it would follow that they would need a series of fiscal earthquakes designed to shake up the “old world order” to make way for a “new world order.”

    Perhaps each of these events will result in a “stable” outcome and there is nothing to be concerned about. That said, I don’t believe in chance. Most geopolitical outcomes are influenced by internationalist players, which makes the outcomes of these events predictable. This is what made the Brexit predictable, and it is what made Trump’s victory predictable. Everything about the confluence of political and economic events in 2017 suggests to me a festering crisis atmosphere.

    As I have always said, economic collapse is a process, not a singular moment in time. This process lulls the masses into complacency. You can show them warning sign after warning sign, but most of them have no concept of what a collapse is. They are waiting for a cinematic moment of revelation, a financial explosion, when really, the whole disaster is happening in slow motion right under their noses. Economies do not explode, they drown as the water rises one inch at a time.

  • The Seven Stages to a Bear Market for Bonds – by Michael Carino

    We have just lived through the most spectacular global bull
    market run for the fixed income markets.  This bull market rallied the bond market to
    the lowest yields ever!  Over a third of
    all global fixed income was trading with a negative yield.  The most accommodative central bank policies
    made heroes out of bond fund managers. Bond investors that stayed fully
    invested with fingers crossed, hoping for the greater fool theory to eventually
    take them out of their overvalued position were rewarded handsomely.  These bond managers are now managing hundreds
    of billions in assets, have attained rock star status in the investment
    community and are living the life of Riley.  After such a spectacular run that has spanned
    a decade, most fixed income participants have never witnessed losses in their
    bond portfolios, never mind a bear market that lasts some time and delivers a
    good amount of pain.

    This recent back-up in yields has left many bond investors
    confused, nervous and unsure what to expect. Well, rest assured, I’m here to
    assist. After 25 years managing bond portfolios and trading trillions of
    dollars in the bond market, I believe I have perfected my timing model that identifies
    when a bond market selloff has run its course.

    This proprietary model stands out for being unique,
    intuitive and void of the quantitative modeling mistakes and biases.  The model is quite qualitative,
    psychologically driven and keys off the 7 stages of a bear market for bonds:

    Stage 1: Shock.  You
    can’t lose money in the bond market, right? 
    Wrong.  Losses from the recent
    bond market selloff will be staggering.  What has been significant double digit returns
    over the last decade has ended.  Yields
    have jumped higher and are still historically low.  Longer duration portfolios can be down over
    10% in the past couple of months.  Losses
    have materialized in the most liquid sectors and will eventually spread to less
    liquid bonds.  Many participants are
    dumbfounded, scratching various places but the itch doesn’t subside.  The market is at the end of this stage and
    there’s six more stages to travel.

    Stage 2: Pain and Remorse.  As bond managers and investors watch their
    bond portfolio decline in real time, the losses hurts.  But the real pain starts once these managers
    issue their clients statements and the bewildered clients look to the managers
    for answers.  This gut wrenching pain of
    disappointing investors and having a tangible negative impact on their beings
    is a visceral hurt.  These managers and
    investors realize they, not the markets, are the source of these losses.  There is an overwhelming feeling of guilt for
    these losses and that they were not, somehow, avoided.  Should these managers have told their
    investors large potential bond market losses compensated by little to no or
    negative yield probably wasn’t the soundest investment? Have you ever heard a
    manager say you’d be better off taking your money back? Bond yields continue to
    rise with no bounces.

    Stage 3: Anger and Bargaining.  Bond managers will get irate and phones will
    be broken. Misplaced anger for losses that are accumulating will keep managers
    and investors frozen, unwilling to cut their losses.  They start to talk about all the things they
    will do if markets reverse to limit their exposures.  Too late.  Everyone is making the same bargains.  This stage sees one last parabolic rise to
    higher bond yields impacting less liquid bond markets the most.

    Stage 4: Depression and reflection. As losses deepen, the
    market comes to the conclusion there is no bounce in bond prices.  The prior low yields reflected a mispricing in
    the market brought about by exorbitant enthusiasm.  Another financial bubble to go down in the
    history books.  Once confident and
    jubilant managers who knew no losses are reclusive, downtrodden and distant.  Being a mortal human as opposed to a bond
    managing deity is humbling.  Bond yields
    still grind higher and liquidity remains poor. There is a dearth of confidence.

    Stage 5: The Beginning of a New Beginning.  Depression starts to lessen and lucky shirts,
    ties, socks and rocks start to come out of the drawers and closets.  The flickering thoughts of a better future
    inside and outside of the financial markets begin to appear.  Could there be an end to this ugly chapter?  Bond yields are still inching higher and
    liquidity remains poor.

    Stage 6: Rebuilding & Reflection. New financial conferences
    on what went wrong in the bond market and how to avoid it in the future pop up
    globally and are fully attended.  Surviving
    bond managers, albeit with much smaller assets to manage, talk about the bear
    bond market and how obvious and avoidable it was.  Plans are bounced around for new strategies.
    Of course, these are strategies that learns from the past.  Volatility in bond yields has now dissipated
    and shallow rallies occur.

    Stage 7: Acceptance and a New Beginning.  Investors and managers agree that the bond
    strategies of the past were wrong and new strategies are implemented. Small
    amounts of money trickle in the markets. As profits start to materialize,
    confidence gets restored.  The first
    managers to show profits becomes known as the new and improved bond guru du
    jour.  The market has stabilized to a new
    range of yields and a normal amount of volatility.  Slowly, liquidity is returning encouraged by
    the beginning of positive reported earnings.  Stage 7 closes the bond market bear cycle and
    begins what I am sure will be the beginning of a new (and never to outdone by
    prior) bond bull market.

    Bond bull market dynamics have ended and bear market
    dynamics will be the norm for some time.  The over-subscribed quantitative, backwards
    looking models, high volume traders and bond investors that closed their eyes
    and played a fool’s game are now feeling pain and guilt.  They invested in the most overvalued market
    and were caught when the market turned.  It
    was like playing musical chairs and the music just stopped.  Tragically, there is a plethora of players and
    only one chair left.  Investors discarded
    fundamental value investing and pursued other flawed strategies for too long.
    They now must experience these seven stages before they can have closure for
    their missteps.

    The market is just entering stage 2. The most liquid sectors
    have come under intense pressure.  Less
    liquid bond managers are holding their breath with their fingers on the sell
    button looking for the first crack in their lofty prices.  If that button gets pressed, stage 2 will be
    in full swing. So buckle up.  As we
    travel down this long and windy bear market road for the bond market, it will
    have many bumps and a couple pot holes.

     

     

    Investment veteran and published author, Michael Carino,
    prophetically called the timing and amplitude of the recent move in global bond
    markets publishing “Global Bond Markets – Skydiving Without a Parachute.”  Michael has spent the last 25 years managing
    fixed-income hedge funds and trading of over a trillion dollars of investments.
     He is the CEO of Greenwich Endeavors, a
    financial service firm.  He feels
    compelled to get his unique and under-reported views on the markets out to the
    public.  It’s time a voice
    contrarian to other self-interested, behemoth Investment Managers’
    voices are heard.

  • Madame Almost President Snapchats to 'Stand Up and Resist', Plus Tucker vs Feminist Debate

    Hillary Clinton came out looking sharp this evening — donning a devil’s red toga and new bobbed haircut — telling her fellow sisters to ‘stand up and resist’ for planned parenthood and jobs etc.

    During tonight’s show with Tucker Carlson, he debated a young lady who was leading the ‘Day Without a Woman’ movement — which called for women to boycott WHITE MALE BUSINESSES ONLY. I know that sounds absurd, right? After all, if this is a women’s movement, why the fuck do chinese and black men get a pass on their boycotts? If this were a reasonable feminist movement, they’d say ‘fuck all men, equally’ (pun not intended) — instead of just the white ones. I will tell you now, this is NOT NICE! SAD!

    Regarding the stats she quoted, they’re based on stats provided by the World Economic Forum, which derives a score parsing through data regarding economic participation and opportunity, educational attainment, health and survival and political empowerment. I do not pretend to be an expert on this subject matter. More importantly, I am not under the disillusionment like many of my male peers out there that America is a beacon of equality amongst races and gender. This country is fucked 10 ways ’till Sunday. Based on the stats provided by the World Economic Forum, the United States is ranked #45.

    We are ranked #1 in education for females, but when it comes to political empowerment, we’re on par with shitholes like Kazakhstan, Vietnam, China and UAE.

    The top 5 ranked nations are Iceland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, and Ireland. The rankings actually say Rwanda, but I’ve used my editorial powers to reject that horseshit — considering their educational attainment is ranked 110.

    The bottom 5 ranked nations are islamic hell holes, naturally: Yemen, Pakistan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Chad.

    Moral of the story? As advanced westerners, we should help spread the proliferation of women’s rights by IMPORTING REFUGEES FROM ALL OF THE WORST OFFENDING NATIONS IN THE WORLD, when it comes to women’s rights.

    (drops mic)

    Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

     

  • Fed Ripples? Yuan Tumbles To 2017 Lows As Chinese Money Market Liquidity Dries Up (Again)

    In what could be the beginning of ripples from The Fed's jawboned 'certainty' of a March rate-hike, Chinese money market liquidity conditions appear to be drying up once again as overnight offshore yuan rates surge 142bps to one-month highs.

    Additionally,  1-week CNH Hibor +1.05 ppts to 4.53017%; and 1-month CNH Hibor +70bps to 4.9395%

     

    At the same, spot offshore Yuan rates have plunged to their lowest since January 4th's massive short squeeze.

     

    As it appears 2017 is Shangahi Accord Redux time – (China 'agrees' to weaken the Yuan against non-USD currencies, while "stabilizing" the Yuan against the USD… until that breaks)

     

    The question is – will a sudden renewed but of volatility in credit markets (high yield crashed this week), commodity markets (crude and copper collapse this week), emerging market stocks (tumbling), and now China money markets, be enough to stall a determined Fed, and crush their credibility once and for all?

  • Meet "Flippy", The Burger-Flipping 'Bot That CaliBurger Is Rolling Out In All Its Restaurants

    Dear Bernie Sanders, it is our great pleasure to introduce to you, “Flippy”, the burger-flipping robot that will soon replace all those fast food workers that you’re working so vehemently to get fired via your efforts to introduce artificially high $15 per hour minimum wage rates.

    “Flippy”, a robotic kitchen assistant, is the creation of Miso Robotics, an engineering firm specializing in “adaptable robotics” for commercial kitchens. Miso’s goal is to develop technology that can handle hazardous, tedious and time-sensitive aspects of cooking, from flipping burgers to frying chicken, cutting vegetables or final plating…in other words, all of the minimum wage restaurant jobs where employee costs just skyrocketed courtesy of economics-challenged politicians.

    Flippy

     

    Per Nation’s Restaurant News, ‘Flippy’ is no longer just a concept as it won its first major contract with CaliBurger which vowed to roll out the burger-flipping technology in all of its 50 global locations by the end of 2019.

    “The application of artificial intelligence to robotic systems that work next to our employees in CaliBurger restaurants will allow us to make food faster, safer and with fewer errors,” said Miller. “Our investment in Miso Robotics is part of our broader vision for creating a unified operating system that will control all aspects of a restaurant, from in-store interactive gaming entertainment, to automated ordering and cooking processes, ‘intelligent’ food delivery and real-time detection of operating errors and pathogens.”

     

    The chain declined to reveal the cost of Flippy, saying Miso Robotics is working with customers to determine the best pricing model.

     

    “The price will be in line with the productivity benefits Flippy provides to restaurant owners,” said a spokesperson.

    And while Caliburger declined to reveal the cost of “Flippy”, we’re going to go out on a limb and assume they wouldn’t be rolling out the technology unless they were getting a decent ROIC on their investment…just a hunch.

    Here are some videos of “Flippy” in action:

  • Caught On Tape: Democratic Congressman Admits The Party Stands For Absolutely Nothing

    Via Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    The problem very quickly became what Integral Metatheory calls a “legitimation crisis,” which it defines as a mismatch between Lower-Left (or cultural) beliefs and the Lower-Right systems (or actual background realities, such as the techno-economic base). The cultural belief was that everybody is created equal, that all people have a perfect and equal right to full personal empowerment, that nobody is intrinsically superior to others (beliefs that flourished with green). Yet the overwhelming reality was increasingly one of a stark and rapidly growing unequality—in terms of income and overall worth, property ownership, employment opportunity, healthcare access, life satisfaction issues. The culture was constantly telling us one thing, and the realities of society were consistently failing to deliver it—the culture was lying. This was a deep and serious legitimation crisis— a culture that is lying to its members simply cannot move forward for long. And if a culture has “no truth,” it has no idea when it’s lying—and thus it naturally lies as many times as it accidentally tells the truth, and hence faster than you can say “deconstruction,” it’s in the midst of a legitimation crisis.

     

    – From the post: How a Breakdown in Liberal Ideology Created Trump – Part 1

    My primary theme thus far in 2017, has centered around the observation that no constructive opposition to Trump currently exists in America. All we have from “the resistance” (corporate Democrats, corporate media and the deep state) thus far are endless conspiracy theories about Trump and Russia. This clownish opposition doesn’t actually stand for anything, and remains fully committed to continuing down the disastrous path we’ve been on this entire century. Simply being opposed to something isn’t going to cut it any longer, and there’s increasing evidence that the public is starting to catch on to the total fraud that is the establishment Democratic Party.

    Jimmy Dore does an excellent job exposing this sham in the following clip. Make sure to watch the entire thing, it gets better and better:

    Unless the Democratic Party begin to stand for something, it will remain dead opposition. If you want some evidence, just take a look at this incredible chart from The Huffington Post:

    As you can see, the real plunge happened right after the election when it became clear that Democratic leadership would remain in place, and rather than admit failure, began to harp non-stop on Russia conspiracy theories. This tactic clearly isn’t working.

    It’s not just the Huffington Post poll either, the evidence is everywhere. As Matt Stoller showed in a tweet earlier today.

    //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    There’s a huge opening for a new political party in America. It’s low hanging fruit.

    I’m ready.

  • The NY Times Explains Why There Is So Much "Confusion" About Its "Trump Wiretapping" Story

    In the aftermath of the Trump accusation that Obama wiretapped his phone during the election, an allegation which the flagbearers of the “truthful” (according to their various advertising campaigns) anti-Trump media wave, namely the Washington Post and the New York Times have vehemently denied, an unexpected victim has emerged over the past few days: the New York Times itself.

    The reason is that while the NYT has repeatedly criticized and denied Trump’s allegation, it itself had written an article on January 19 titled, in the print version, “Wiretapped Data Used in Inquiry of Trump Aides’, and online “Intercepted Russian Communications Part of Inquiry Into Trump Associates“, by reporters Michael Schmidt and Michael Shear, which paradoxically corroborated much, if not all of what Trump himself said, and quotes the usual anonymous source who said that wiretapped communications had been provided to the White House” as part of an investigation into “the business dealings that some of the president-elect’s past and present advisers have had with Russia.

    So with various conservative blogs taking the NYT to task over this seeming contradiction, and even the WaPo’s own fact-checker seemingly confused…

    //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    … today the NYT’s public editor, Liz Spayd felt compelled to address its January 19 article which, implicitly, substantiated much of Trump’s allegation, and to explain why that’s not the case.

    She starts by saying that “Trump’s assertions, however overinflated, nonetheless echo certain aspects of The New York Times’s reporting from recent weeks. That, in turn, has allowed his administration to assert that the basis for his claims rests, in part, on reporting by The Times.”

    On the surface, there are similarities. Both The Times and Trump have referred to wiretaps. Both have referenced White House knowledge of the investigations. And both have described efforts by officials from the Obama administration to involve itself in the continuing investigations of Trump and Russia.

    Maybe Trump is not a completely raving lunatic after all. So where are the differences:

    For one, as The Times (and others) has made clear, these investigations have been conducted by the F.B.I., intelligence agencies and Congress, not by Obama himself. The Times has also said Obama administration officials sought to spread intelligence about a possible link between Trump and Russia to ensure a trail of evidence for investigators, but it said Obama himself was not involved. And no Times reporter has claimed that any warrants have been issued to spy on Trump or his associates.

    And there it is again: several months after we thought we would never again hear the old “Obama had no idea what was going on excuse”, it strikes yet again, only this time we find it very difficult to believe that Obama, who expanded the distributions of confidential NSA data to multiple offices just weeks before his final day in office, had no clue that Trump was being wiretapped.

    There’s more, and this is where things get delightfully Orwellian, because as Spayd “explains”, the confusion is really just a function of readers being confused because, well, it’s complicated:

    Distinguishing between Trump’s assertions and The Times’s reporting is essential. Yet readers at this juncture may be understandably confused on what is true and not in one of the most important ongoing news stories in the country.

    More details about this pervasive “confusion” fanned by none other than the NYT itself:

    Several readers have written in this week saying they’re having a hard time squaring The Times’s own past reports of wiretapping with the paper’s assertions that there is no firm evidence that any warrants for wiretaps have been issued. Readers also expressed confusion with The Times’s assertion that it would be illegal for a White House to receive information about such investigations, when its own wiretapping story in January said the Trump White House was given some information from intercepted communications.

     

    “For months now the NY Times and many other mainstream news sources has been running stories based on anonymous leaks saying that a massive investigation was going on into Trump and company’s Russian dealings based on wiretaps and intel intercepts,” wrote John Penley of Asheville, N.C. “Now Obama officials are saying this all never happened so my question is this: Why have the NY Times and others been saying it has for months now basing their stories on anonymous leaks?”

    So to eliminate the confusion, here is the NYT’s explanation of how the wiretapping of Trump and/or his associates, which eventually made its way to the White House – as per the NYT – didn’t really happen.

    I reached out to editors in the Washington bureau to seek their help in clarifying the difference between Clapper’s — and The Times’s — assertions that no warrants had been issued, and the reference to wiretapping in the January story.

     

    Elisabeth Bumiller, the bureau chief, said the January story was referring to information picked up from wiretaps and other intelligence collected overseas, a process that requires no warrants.

    Still confused? Don’t worry: the NYT even has a Q&A to help you out of your cognitive dissonance predicament”:

    There’s a lot to parse. And doing so, in a way that is clear to readers, is not easy when the subject matter is complicated and the information that reporters receive comes under strict terms of how it can be used. One reporter, Charlie Savage, produced a helpful Q. and A. explaining the law around wiretaps and key terms. But it didn’t try to show how Trump’s claims line up against The Times’s past reporting.

    Sarcasm aside, what the NYT’s long-winded explanation boils down to is that Trump’s inner circle was wiretapped, but the difference is whether Obama knew about it or not. And if anyone harbors any gullible thoughts that the president who lied to the public about his knowledge of Hillary’s email server – arguably the biggest fiasco of her presidential campaign – but is telling the truth when he says that he has no idea whatsoever that someone, somewhere was in fact wiretapping Trump as the NYT reports, then we wish you all the best as you click away on all the other NYT “Q&A”s to help you in your misery.

  • What The Hell Is Going On? – Part 2

    Via Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog,

    In Part One of this article I exposed the establishment narrative of a strong economy as rubbish by providing hard data regarding imploding gasoline usage, failing bricks and mortar retailers and plunging restaurant sales.

    “Inflation may indeed bring benefits for a short time to favored groups, but only at the expense of others. And in the long run it brings ruinous consequences to the whole community. Even a relatively mild inflation distorts the structure of production. It leads to the overexpansion of some industries at the expense of others. This involves a misapplication and waste of capital. When the inflation collapses, or is brought to a halt, the misdirected capital investment—whether in the form of machines, factories or office buildings—cannot yield an adequate return and loses the greater part of its value.Nor is it possible to bring inflation to a smooth and gentle stop, and so avert a subsequent depression.” – Henry Hazlitt – Economics in One Lesson

    Inflation is the opium of the masses. The establishment’s interest in dumbing down the masses through government controlled public school indoctrination couldn’t be clearer than examining the chart below. The average non-thinking, math challenged, iGadget distracted, media controlled pawn thinks their household income has risen by $6,000 since 2008 because they have no understanding of Fed created inflation.

    Even using the ridiculously downward manipulated CPI concoction shows the median household has lost ground. While median income has remained stagnant since 2000, the CPI is up 44%. Using honest inflation numbers would likely double that figure. Stagnant incomes with living costs 40% to 80% higher doesn’t exactly match the rhetoric of a strong economy being propagandized by the Deep State and their fake news media outlets.

    Even the BLS can’t hide the inflation ravaging middle class families and senior citizens on fixed incomes. And those fixed incomes are fixed at zero, as they get .20% on their savings and no increases in their Social Security payments. CPI is now 2.5% higher than one year ago, above the magic central banker 2% goal. It has been raging at an annualized 4.4% rate over the last three months. It is poised to go even higher in the next few months.

    Yellen and her intellectual yet idiot cohort of ego maniacal central banker brethren pretend they know the ideal rate of inflation to keep the economy running just right. See how well they’ve done since 1999, with two massive bubbles destroying the lives of millions and the mother of all bubbles (stocks, bonds, real estate) currently continuing to grow before it’s predictable incineration of wealth.

    The Big Lie about the need for inflation has been pounded into the heads of the weak minded by the Fed, Wall Street shysters, fake news media outlets, and TV entertainers disguised as journalists and financial experts. This country became a worldwide industrial power while sustaining mild deflationary conditions for almost two hundred years. It wasn’t until the birth of the welfare/warfare state in the 1960s when corrupt politicians and spineless central bankers decided they needed guns, butter, and entitlements.

    Closing the gold window in 1971 and allowing politicians to run up the national debt from $400 billion (34% of GDP) to $20 trillion (106% of GDP), while making $200 trillion of unfunded entitlement promises, has been the result. Total credit market debt has risen from $2 trillion in 1971 to over $65 trillion today. Total global debt has surpassed $217 trillion, or 325% of global GDP. The only way to make these disastrously horrible decisions seem palatable has been to produce inflation at prodigious levels in order to make the debt appear payable. It’s not.

    Inflation and its supposed benefits is an example of how the Deep State has perfected the teachings of master propagandist Edward Bernays.

    “The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized.

    Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society. …In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons…who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.” Edward Bernays – Propaganda – 1928

    Of course, the pliable public has been convinced government debt doesn’t matter because we owe it ourselves, or some such nonsense. They have also been convinced by Madison Avenue maggots and Wall Street shysters that luxury automobiles, McMansions, Rolex watches, 72 inch home theaters, iGadgets, and a myriad of other “essential” material possessions purchased with debt actually constitute wealth. Keeping up with the joneses has been brainwashed into the minds of the ignorant masses as their only true goal in life.

    The result is consumer credit of $3.8 trillion, the highest level in history. Since the 2008 financial crisis, created by the fraudulent issuance of mountains of subprime debt by Wall Street banks and stimulated by the easy money Fed, hundreds of billions of subprime student loan and auto debt have been dispensed to artificially boost GDP. This scheme was concocted by the Obama administration, Yellen, and their Wall Street puppeteers to bamboozle the public and temporarily jolt the economy. It failed.

    Over 25% of all student loans are in default. Six million Americans are delinquent on their auto loans. The taxpayer bailout when the student loan “crisis” suddenly hits will exceed $500 billion, as Obama has doled out loans to every functionally illiterate college wannabe in the nation. You’d think the payoff from doling out $700 billion in student loan debt would be more knowledgeable young people imbibed with the inspiration to change the world with their newfound intelligence and training.

    Nothing could be further from the truth. The $700 billion has produced illiterate, violent social justice warriors who despise free speech, can’t add, can’t write a sentence, and are virtually unemployable. But they are good at protesting, burning things, and being outraged by anyone they disagree with. This student loan debacle has been a purposeful scheme to artificially lower unemployment and provide the appearance of economic recovery, as the loan money has been used for iGadgets, booze, hookers and blow. Mission accomplished Obama!!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/01/15/Student%20Car%20Loans.jpg

    “The most erroneous assumption is to the effect that the aim of public education is to fill the young of the species with knowledge and awaken their intelligence, and so make them fit to discharge the duties of citizenship in an enlightened and independent manner. Nothing could be further from the truth. The aim of public education is not to spread enlightenment at all; it is simply to reduce as many individuals as possible to the same safe level, to breed and train a standardized citizenry, to put down dissent and originality. That is its aim in the United States, whatever the pretensions of politicians, pedagogues and other such mountebanks, and that is its aim everywhere else.” –  H.L. Mencken

    The one area of consumer credit which has not reached its previous bubble peak is credit card debt. After Wall Street wrote off $300 billion (funded by taxpayer TARP funds) they began issuing credit cards like candy, again. But consumers have been slower to whip out the plastic like the pre-2008 days. That’s why bricks and mortar retailers have closed thousands of stores and ghost malls across suburbia are the norm.

    So it begs the question as to why credit card debt has increased by $160 billion (up 20%) since its 2010 low. The answer is simple when you take into account the stagnant wages and rising cost of living documented earlier. Credit card defaults are so low because they are the only thing sustaining millions of families across the country.

    In case you haven’t noticed, the purveyors of credit on Wall Street, out of the goodness of their evil black hearts (they’ve paid $321 billion in fines since 2008 without admitting guilt or having one executive jailed), have convinced every level of government, every utility company, landlords, and educational institutions to accept credit cards for payment. Before 2000, all these bills had to be paid with cash on hand.

    Now you can pay your IRS bill, real estate taxes, monthly cell phone bill, school tuition or rent (with outrageous fees) with a credit card at 15% interest. Nothing like turning a $2,500 real estate tax payment into a $4,000 real estate tax payment, over time. It’s the American way.

    Desperate households across the land aren’t clinging to guns and bibles. They’re clinging to credit cards as their only lifeline in this failing empire of debt, deception, and delusion. When the next inevitable financial crisis strikes “unexpectedly” and even the low paying, no benefits Obama jobs disappear, even their five credit cards won’t keep them from getting kicked out on the street again.

    This isn’t just my pessimistic doom persona rearing its ugly head. My ponderings are based on common sense, an honest assessment of the real situation in this country and an understanding of the ebbs and flows of history. H.L. Mencken had similar views on government and the American people during the last Fourth Turning.

    “In the present case it is a little inaccurate to say I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible to any public office of trust or profit in the Republic. But I do not repine, for I am a subject of it only by force of arms.”H.L. Mencken

    Based on anecdotal and hard verifiable data, the average American family is in the midst of a recession, if not a depression. No amount of propaganda, misinformation, fake government data, or fake news can cover-up the facts. Donald Trump was elected president, not by misogynist, white, racist, xenophobes, but by families (men and women) who have been screwed over by the establishment for decades and left impoverished, hopeless, and depressed.

    He won the election because radicals like you and me decided to send a message to the arrogant, evil, globalist ruling class that we are mad as hell and aren’t going to take it anymore. Despair of the silent normal majority is what propelled Trump to victory. Choices have consequences.

    “History offers no guarantees. If America plunges into an era of depression or violence which by then has not lifted, we will likely look back on the 1990s as the decade when we valued all the wrong things and made all the wrong choices.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    In Part Three of this article I will assess the early days of the Trump presidency, the full court press by the Deep State to bring him down, his unrealistic economic plans, and how our overvalued stock, bond and real estate markets will eventually crash, leading to the next leg down in this Fourth Turning.

  • New Poll Shows Hillary Favorability Sinking to All-Time Low As Trump Jumps

    After a recent speech at her alma mater, Wellesley College, Hillary Clinton was asked by a young snowflake what she would change about her 2016 campaign if she had it to do all over again, to which she quickly responded, “I’d win.”

    But while Hillary seems to be fairly optimistic after her staggering 2016 loss, a new poll from Suffolk University reveals that her ‘favorability’ ratings among registered voters have dipped to all-time lows at only 35%.

    As the Washington Post points out, Hillary’s decline is due to both Democrats and independents apparently souring on her. While 88% of Democrats and 32% of independents liked Clinton in October, today those numbers are down to 74% and 25%, respectively. Clearly, even some who voted for Clinton — she won 89% of Democrats’ votes and 42% of independents’ — don’t have as much affection for her as they did at the tail end of the election.

    Hillary

    And lest you think this is just a fake poll with a Republican “oversample” designed to make Hillary look bad, the details actually show a 2-point sampling advantage for Democrats.

    Adding insult to injury, apparently one white, female voter from the Mid-west didn’t even seem to know who Hillary Clinton is.

    Hillary

    The same poll, however, shows Trump — for the first time ever — in significantly better shape than Clinton with a 45% favorable rating among registered voters.

    Trump

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Today’s News 8th March 2017

  • What The Hell Is Going On?

    Via Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog,

    “The older I grow, the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings wisdom.” –  H.L. Mencken

     

    “The older I get the less I listen to what people say and the more I look at what they do.”Andrew Carnegie

    I’m 53 years old. The older I get the less sure I am about things I was sure about when I was 25 years old. I believed stocks for the long run was an unquestioned truth. I believed our economy was based on free market capitalism. I believed stock prices were based upon profits and cash flows. I believed a home was a place to live – not an investment. I believed the Catholic Church was run by good men doing good things. I believed journalists and the media were watchdogs working on behalf of the public. I believed our military was protecting our interests. I believed politicians legislated on behalf of the people. I believed the main purpose of bankers was to loan money to businesses and consumers in order to support economic growth. Boy, was I dumbass.

    My skeptical nature, reliance on data I’ve personally vetted, and judging our leaders based on what they have done versus what they say, has allowed me to escape the Matrix. I wasn’t truly awakened until I watched Bush, Cheney, Powell, the rest of the neo-con prevaricators and fake news mainstream media utilize propaganda to railroad Americans into a $6 trillion unnecessary war, resulting in 36,000 American casualties, the destruction of a country and the creation of thousands of new Muslim terrorists.

    I’ve spent the last fourteen years pushing back against the establishment narrative, documenting the fake data published by government apparatchiks, and trying to open the eyes of as many people as possible to the propaganda utilized by the Deep State to keep the ignorant masses dazed, confused and distracted. The country is in deep trouble because what the majority believe regarding the economy, politics, religion, and culture just ain’t so.

    “What gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know. It’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.”Mark Twain

    Since the start of this year I’ve found myself in a mental funk. I’m tired of the lies. I’m tired of incessant media propaganda. I’m tired of politicians. I’m tired of economic experts. I’m tired of hucksters touting their “the end is near” tale to sell me something. I’m tired of faux mainstream media journalists and their whining about Trump being mean and threatening the First Amendment.

    They don’t know jack about the First Amendment, as they work for one of the six media conglomerates whose job it is to produce fake news supporting whatever narrative keeps their Deep State benefactors in power. Regurgitating lines written for them by corporate propagandists is not journalism and has absolutely no relationship to the First Amendment. Over the last decade the only place to find some truth has been the alternative media thriving on the uncensored internet. That’s why the establishment wants to regulate the internet.

    The fake news blitz by a Deep State, flailing about trying to retain their power and wealth, has reached frantic proportions. The left wingers, egged on by Obama and funded by Soros, hold increasingly inane protests with themes like: wear a vagina hat to support feminazis; hug an illegal immigrant; everyone I hate is a Nazi; and women take another day off and no one notices. The traitorous neo-con warmongers like McCain, Graham, and Kristol see their enormously profitable never ending global conflict agenda at risk. The military industrial complex needs enemies. The left wingers and neo-cons have joined forces to utilize the fake Russian election intervention propaganda in a last ditch desperate attempt to derail the Trump presidency before it starts.

    The relentlessness, bitterness, and blatant disregard for the truth exhibited by Trump’s vast array of opponents have made TV virtually unwatchable. I’ve found myself mentally checking out. Why waste mental energy debating hacks, mental midgets and paid trolls for the establishment? After spending years obliterating fake government statistics on a daily basis, I find continuing to do so is just mental masturbation with no ultimate satisfaction. Confronting left wingers and neo-cons is like wresting with a pig, you both get dirty and the pig likes it.

    I’ve always been an observer. I’ve been observing how certain both sides are regarding their positions on illegal immigration, Muslims, Russia, Obamacare, Supreme Court nominees, executive orders, jobs, taxes, climate change, school choice, oil pipelines the First Amendment, Second Amendment, the rule of law, and the Bill of Rights. I find it exhausting. We’re lost in a blizzard of lies. I’m not certain about anything. I will remain skeptical of everything uttered by all politicians, all government bureaucrats, all corporate executives, all central bankers, all media pundits, all religious leaders, all corporate paid journalists and especially Wall Street shysters.

    “Moral certainty is always a sign of cultural inferiority. The more uncivilized the man, the surer he is that he knows precisely what is right and what is wrong. All human progress, even in morals, has been the work of men who have doubted the current moral values, not of men who have whooped them up and tried to enforce them. The truly civilized man is always skeptical and tolerant, in this field as in all others. His culture is based on “I am not too sure.”H.L. Mencken

    The dissonance between what I have been observing and what is being flogged by the establishment mouthpieces in the corporate mainstream media has never been greater. Some of my observations are anecdotal, others are based on real unadulterated truthful data, a few are based on simple common sense and the rest are based on my understanding of what happens during Fourth Turnings.

    When you understand the cyclical nature of history you are not surprised when events lead to reactions among the masses which take the linear thinking status quo by complete surprise. The 2008 global financial implosion and the subsequent election of Donald J. Trump by the deplorable white silent majority completely blindsided the oblivious establishment, but were entirely predictable if you had studied previous Fourth Turnings throughout history.

    I’ve been making a horrific sixty mile round trip commute into Philly for the last ten years. The average daily commute has been about two hours, as the entire route has been under some sort of construction for the entire decade. A fantastic one way commute is forty five minutes. I regularly have ninety minute commutes, and I’ve experienced a few which breached the two hour mark. It became immediately evident to me something changed as this new year got under way. My morning and evening commute has been consistently in the forty-five minute range for the last two months. There are less cars and trucks on the road. The question is why?

    This only happened once before over the last decade – during the 2008/2009 recession. In a shocking correlation (especially for brain dead tax and spend liberals), when there are less jobs, there are less drivers on the roads going to work. I tried to think of other reasonable explanations for why traffic appeared to be contracting so dramatically. But lo and behold, certain data can’t be easily manipulated by the government. Gasoline demand is plunging, with the year over year trend crashing to levels last experienced during the 2001 recession. Gasoline demand was higher during the 2008/2009 crisis. Demand was higher when oil was over $100 per barrel. Based on this crash in gasoline demand, Goldman Sachs issued a report saying we should be in a recession.

    Total miles driven are dramatically slowing down. It’s not because of electric cars or fuel efficiency, as the vast majority of the 17.5 million vehicles being hawked to the math challenged driving public (using low payment leases and six year 0% loans) are pickups, SUVs, or luxury sedans. The Fed induced and subprime debt fueled frenzy of vehicle sales (aka long – term rentals) has seen vehicle sales skyrocket from 10 million in 2010 to an all-time high above 17.5 million in 2016, while auto loan debt has soared from $700 billion to over $1.1 trillion during this same time frame. The truthfulness of the 17.5 million sales number may be in question, as dealer lots are stuffed with record levels of inventory. With a record number of cars in the hands of consumers, how could gasoline usage and miles driven crash?

    Vehicle Sales

    More questions emerge to those with critical thinking skills. If the unemployment rate is really 4.8%, how could 40% of the employable population (102 million) not be working? This explains the lack of cars on the road during my commute. Obama and his minions jabber about the tremendous jobs recovery during his reign of error. In 2007 there were 122 million full-time workers among a working age population of 233 million, or 52.3%. After Obama’s eight year economic “recovery”, there are 125 million full-time workers among a working age population of 254 million, or 49.2%.

    We’ve added 3 million full-time jobs in the last 9 years, and the captured mainstream media touts this as a success story. The deceitfulness – it burns. When 125 million full-time workers, of which 22 million are non-producing government drones, have to support 102 million non-working Americans, most living on the dole, you have a financially unsustainable paradigm. Trump’s slogan should be Make Americans Get Off Their Fat Asses and Work Again.

    The explanation for the plunge in gasoline demand and miles driven is quite simple if you haven’t drunk the mainstream media kool-aid about the fantastic economy, low unemployment, and soaring consumer confidence. Americans drive their vehicles to work, to shop, and to eat out. Truckers are the backbone of our just in time big box retail society. If Americans are driving less, there are less people with jobs, less spending at bricks and mortar retailers, and fewer people eating out.

    If truckers are logging less miles, retailers are ordering less inventory, manufacturers are selling less widgets, and the economy is contracting. The entire economic improvement narrative is based on soft data about feelings from consumer confidence surveys and dozens of other easily manipulated surveys. Propagandists are experts at convincing clueless dolts it’s raining when their government is actually pissing down their backs.

    Despite government reports about expanding retail sales and strong holiday sales, real info from real retailers tells the true story. Major retailers have announced 1,500 store closings in the first two months of 2017, including:

    • JC Penney – 140 stores
    • Sears – 150 stores
    • Macy’s – 68 stores
    • HHGregg – 88 stores
    • The Limited – 250 stores
    • Abercrombie & Fitch – 60 stores
    • Wet Seal – 171 stores
    • CVS – 70 stores

    Kohl’s, Target, Macy’s, Sears, and dozens of other retailers reported awful holiday sales. Wal-Mart was lauded for generating a 1% comparable store sales increase. There is virtually no store expansion by large retail chains. During the 2000 to 2007 period these chains were each opening hundreds of new stores per year. We are in the midst of a long term retail contraction which is just picking up steam.

    The closure of these stores combined with rising interest rates are a toxic concoction for real estate mall developers. The Fed allowed them to extend and pretend for the last eight years. The jig is up. A wave of retail and mall bankruptcies is baked in the cake. The government reported retail sales growth is driven by Fed induced auto sales (leases and loans), home furnishing sales financed at 0% over five years, building materials stores offering 0% financing, Amazon and until recently restaurant and bar sales.

    Since I don’t go into malls or many retail establishments, and rarely eat at chain restaurants, my observations of retail and restaurant traffic are based on how full their parking lots are at peak hours. When the economy was in bubble mode prior to 2008, mall parking lots were jammed and you had a ninety minute  wait to get a seat at Outback or Olive Garden. Today, you can get a parking spot at a big box retailer near the front door on a Saturday afternoon.

    Malls are ghost towns, with Space Available as the hot new location. Except for peak dinner time on a Friday or Saturday (if then) there are no longer long waits to get a table at one of the struggling chain restaurants. We reached peak retail and peak overpriced restaurants a few years ago. The downward spiral, due to demographics, declining real income, and over-saturation, is irreversible.

    Image result for restaurant performance index

    As usual, with propaganda distributed by the government or industry organizations, they present a positive restaurant performance index based on false hope and delusional expectations. Restaurant chains like Applebees, Outback, Ruby Tuesday, Chilis, Buffalo Wild Wings and many other major chains have been reporting declining same restaurant sales. Industry comparable restaurant sales are lower than two years ago.

    Outback’s parent company announced it will close more than four dozen locations of Outback Steakhouse, Bonefish Grill, Carrabba’s Italian Grill and Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse. Ruby Tuesday is closing 100 locations. Despite government reports showing strong restaurant sales over the last eight years, annual traffic to U.S. restaurants has been flat or up just 1% since 2009, when there was a 2% drop in the wake of the Fed created financial crisis.

    The “increase” in sales was generated by price increases of 2% to 3% per year. Now these chains are paying the price for high prices, shitty food, and poor service from their college graduate millennial staff. With higher taxes, soaring Obamacare costs, student loan and auto loan debt up to their eyeballs, and low paying service jobs as their career, even clueless millennials have gotten a clue – they don’t have the money to eat out four times per week.

    Anyone with an ounce of common sense knows the majority of Americans have fallen further behind since 2009, with only the establishment and those leaching off the establishment profiting from the suffering of senior citizens and the former middle class. When real personal spending plummets at the highest rate since 2009, you just might be in the midst of a recession.

    As consumer confidence surveys, ISM surveys and Fed surveys provide fake news about consumer and corporate feelings about a glorious future, the hard data tells the truth. How could households feel confident when real median household income fell by $558 in December and is down by $529 year over year? How could Obama and his lapdogs in the mainstream media pontificate about the record economic recovery when real median income is 2% lower than it was nine years ago?

    How can anyone deny the average American household has been experiencing a depression since 2000, when real median household income is lower today than it was at the turn of the century? Do you think the lack of income growth over the last 17 years may have played a part in the deplorables electing Trump in November?

    The corporate fake news media will continue to produce the false narrative as directed by their Deep State employers. The credibility of journalists can be summed up in two pithy sentences by Hunter S. Thompson.

    “The press is a gang of cruel faggots. Journalism is not a profession or a trade. It is a cheap catch-all for fuckoffs and misfits—a false doorway to the backside of life, a filthy piss-ridden little hole nailed off by the building inspector, but just deep enough for a wino to curl up from the sidewalk and masturbate like a chimp in a zoo-cage.” – Hunter S. Thompson – Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

    In Part Two of this article I’ll show how the Deep State/establishment/ruling class/status quo have utilized their mastery of propaganda techniques to convince the masses inflation and debt are beneficial to their interests and why Trump’s election is the pushback by a citizenry who are beginning to awake and are mad as hell.

  • 5 Dystopic Movies That Are Coming True Right Now

    From ‘border walls’ to ‘biometrics’ and from ‘economic collapse’ to the ‘surveillance state’, is life imitating art… or was it all a guidebook?

    As The Daily Sheeple’s Melissa Dykes notes, it’s actually kind of hard to watch some of these… things are hitting way too close to home these days.

  • Q&A: How Can I Stop My TV Spying On Me?

    Following today's publication, by WikiLeaks, of documents exposing the CIA's secret hacking program – describing tools that can turn a world of increasingly networked, camera- and microphone-equipped devices into eavesdroppers, AP's Frank Bajak answers the public's biggest questions. Bajak warns consumers, there's "not much you can do if you don't want to sacrifice the benefits of the device," but offers a silver-lining of sorts for the average joe, the "tools that appear to be targeted at specific people's (devices).. and many intrusion tools are for delivery via 'removable device'."

    Smart televisions and automobiles now have on-board computers and microphones, joining the ubiquitous smartphones, laptops and tablets that have had microphones and cameras as standard equipment for a decade. That the CIA has created tools to turn them into listening posts surprises no one in the security community.

    Q: HOW WORRIED SHOULD CONSUMERS BE?

    A: The intrusion tools highlighted by the leak do not appear to be instruments of mass surveillance. So, it's not as if everyone's TV or high-tech vehicle is at risk.

     

    "It's unsurprising, and also somewhat reassuring, that these are tools that appear to be targeted at specific people's (devices) by compromising the software on them — as opposed to tools that decrypt the encrypted traffic over the internet," said Matt Blaze, a University of Pennsylvania computer scientist.

     

    The exploits appear to emphasize targeted attacks, such as collecting keystrokes or silently activating a Samsung TV's microphone while the set is turned off. In fact, many of the intrusion tools described in the documents are for delivery via "removable device."

    Q: WHAT CAN BE DONE TO PREVENT A COMPROMISED INTERNET-CONNECTED DEVICE FROM COMMUNICATING WITH SPIES?

    A: Not much if you don't want to sacrifice the benefits of the device.

     

    "Anything that is voice-activated or that has voice- and internet-connected functionality is susceptible to these types of attacks," said Robert M. Lee, a former U.S. cyberwar operations officer and CEO of the cybersecurity company Dragos.

     

    That includes smart TVs and voice-controlled information devices like the Amazon Echo, which can read news, play music, close the garage door and turn up the thermostat. An Amazon Echo was enlisted as a potential witness in an Arkansas murder case.

     

    To ensure a connected device can't spy on you, unplug it from the grid and the internet and remove the batteries, if that's possible. Or perhaps don't buy it, especially if you don't especially require the networked features and the manufacturer hasn't proven careful on security.

     

    Security experts have found flaws in devices — like WiFi-enabled dolls — with embedded microphones and cameras.

    Q: I USE WHATSAPP AND SIGNAL FOR VOICE AND TEXT COMMUNICATION BECAUSE OF THEIR STRONG ENCRYPTION. CAN THE EXPLOITS DESCRIBED IN THE WIKILEAKS DOCUMENTS BREAK THEM?

    A: No. But exploits designed to infiltrate the operating system on your Android smartphone, iPhone, iPad or Windows-based computer can read your messages or listen in on conversations on the compromised device itself, though communications are encrypted in transit.

     

    "The bad news is that platform exploits are very powerful," Blaze tweeted. "The good news is that they have to target you in order to read your messages."

     

    He and other experts say reliably defending against a state-level adversary is all but impossible. And the CIA was planting microphones long before we became networked.

    Q: I'M NOT A HIGH-VALUE TARGET. BUT I STILL WANT TO PROTECT MYSELF. HOW?

    A: It may sound boring, but it's vital: Keep all your operating systems patched and up-to-date, and don't click links or open email attachments unless you are sure they are safe.

     

    There will always be exploits of which antivirus companies are not aware until it's too late. These are known as zero-day exploits because no patches are available and victims have zero time to prepare. The CIA, National Security Agency and plenty of other intelligence agencies purchase and develop them.

     

    But they don't come cheap. And most of us are hardly worth it.

    Source: AP

  • China Imports Spike As Lunar New Year Skew Creates Biggest Trade Deficit In 3 Years

    When the headline prints hit tonight on China's trade data, offshore Yuan dipped and ripped…

     

    As China faced its first trade deficit in 3 years (-$60bn vs +172.5bn exp)…

    Obviously there is some major seaonality…

    With imports exploding 44.7% YoY (and exports missing expectations dramatically +4.2% vs +14.6% exp). But it appears the economists forgot about this year's lunar new year holiday falling in January (vs Feb last year).

     

    As Bloomberg points out, the results were skewed because the week-long Lunar New Year holidays that shutter factories and ports across the nation occurred in February 2016 versus late January in 2017, distorting base year comparisons.

    Even though the specific data point is entirely worthless, we note that Imports from U.S. rose 41% to 163.5b yuan in Jan.-Feb., General Administration of Customs says in statement.

    For now it appears Bitcoin is suffering the most post-data (but this could be renewed selling pressure from this morning ahead of this weekend's ETF decision)

  • Hawaii To File Lawsuit Over Trump's New Travel Ban

    If Trump was harboring any hopes that his “new and revised” travel ban would sneak through unopposed, they were just dashed by the state in which Trump’s ex-presidential nemesis was born. 

    Just as the federal government said Washington state and Minnesota had consented to dismiss their cases before the U.S. Court of Appeals in San Francisco, Hawaii announced it plans to challenge Trump’s new travel ban, according to legal documents as well as tweets from one of the lawyers involved.

    “Here we go,” tweeted Hogan Lovells partner Neal Katyal Tuesday night, and one of Hawaii’s lead attorney. “Proud to stand w/State of Hawaii challenging Pres. Trump’s ‘new’ Executive Order issued yesterday.”

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    “To be sure, the new executive order covers fewer people than the old one,” Katyal said in an interview with CNN. However, he added that the new order though still “suffers from the same constitutional and statutory defects.”

    The state will file its complaint and temporary restraining order in federal court by Wednesday, according to a document published on the website of the Hogan Lovells law firm, based in Washington.

    After Trump’s initial immigration order faced quick backlash, with protests breaking out across the country and many lawmakers speaking out against it, the president on Monday issued a new revised order on immigration which revised the original one by exempting green card holders, removing Iraq from the list of banned countries, and being phased in over a period of time. It still bans travelers from six mostly-Muslim countries from entering the United States for 90 days and bans all refugees from entering the country for 120 days.

    According to a briefing schedule set forth in documents filed in federal court by the state of Hawaii on Tuesday, the federal government will file its response by Monday and oral arguments would take place on March 15.

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  • The Next Domino To Fall: Commercial Real Estate

    Via Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

    Unless the Federal Reserve intends to buy up every dead and dying mall in America, this is one crisis that the Fed can't bail out with a few digital keystrokes.

    Just as generals prepare to fight the last war, central banks prepare to battle the last financial crisis–which in the present context means a big-bank liquidity meltdown like the one that nearly toppled thr global financial system in 2008-09.

    Planning to win the next war by assuming it will be a copy of the last confict is an excellent strategy for losing the next war. The same holds true for the next financial crisis: reckoning that it will be a repeat of 2008 is an excellent way to be caught completely off-guard.

    Crises may rhyme, but they don't repeat. The next Global Financial Meltdown won't start in subprime mortgages–that sector has been wiped out, written down, or passed on to the poor tax-donkey taxpayers.

    The next crisis also won't arise on money-center banks, either. Central banks have figured out how to bail out the banks, and have rebuilt the bank balance sheets by stripping hundreds of billions of dollars in interest from savers.

    (Sorry, widows and orphans–your interest income had to be transferred to the big banks. We're sure you understand why the banks are more important than you are as you enjoy yet another meal of canned beans and saltine crackers.)

    The central banks and state treasuries around the globe may be confident they can bail out the banks, but what if the next domino to fall isn't a bank? What if it is a "safe, high yield asset" held by institutional owners such as pension funds, insurance companies and REITs (real estate investment trusts)?

    What if the next crisis isn't a spot of bother caused by excessive leverage, but a systemic collapse of collateral as an entire sector–retailers holding millions of square feet of bricks-and-mortar store space–falls off a cliff?

    Consider this chart of sky-high commercial real estate (CRE) valuations…

    and this photo of a decimated major mall…

    and this partial list of retail closures, some due to bankruptcy, others due to downsizing, and others that claim to be downsizing but are actually the initial stages of liquidation.

    Talk about an overvalued market set up for a fall. It isn't just malls becoming empty retail wastelands–it's Corporate America shifting to flex-work and work-at-home, slashing the need for floor after floor of costly business-park office space.

    It's about restaurants moving to smaller spaces as they move to serving more meals via delivery services.

    Commercial real estate is grossly overbuilt in retail and office space. Combine sky-high valuations with cratering demand and billions in short-term CRE loans that must be rolled over into new loans, and we don't have a liquidity crisis, we have a collateral crisis— the assets supporting the debt are no longer worth the loan balance.

    Unless the Federal Reserve intends to buy up every dead and dying mall in America, this is one crisis that the Fed can't bail out with a few digital keystrokes. Gordon T. Long and I discuss this brewing crisis and its potentially devastating consequences in our program Is Retail CRE The Next Financial Implosion? (YouTube)(34:12).

  • If You Think Your Job Is One That Cannot Be Automated, You're In For A Rude Awakening

    Via Duane of FreeMarketShooter.com,

    It is pretty accepted knowledge that a number of lower-skilled jobs will disappear in the coming 5-10 years, due to the human element being replaced by autonomous machines. 

    One of the most at-risk professions is that of Truck Driver, which as 13D Research points out, is one of the no.1 reasons you rarely (if ever) hear President Trump discuss automation in the workplace:

    A widely circulated NPR graphic shows “truck driver” was the most common job in more than half of the U.S. states in 2014?—?in part because how the Bureau of Labor Statistics sorts common jobs, such as educators, into small groups. Indeed, truck driving is one of the last jobs standing that affords good pay (median salary for tractor-trailer drivers, $40,206) and does not require a college degree. According to the American Trucking Association, there are 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the U.S. Entire businesses (think restaurants and motels) and hundreds of small communities, supporting an additional 5.2 million people, have been built around serving truckers crisscrossing the nation. That’s 8.7 million trucking-related jobs. It also represents one of Trump’s most important voting blocs?—?working-class men.

    And while it may be further out on the timeline, if you think your job requires a higher, special element of skill and mental acuity that just cannot be automated, you are probably very mistaken.  In fact, there are few (if any) jobs in which a machine would be inferior to a person.  And this is not as far out in the future as you may think.

    Just imagine, how Truck Drivers would have reacted if ten years ago, you told them that they would be at risk of being replaced by a machine?  And this isn’t some far-off vision of the future… it is happening now:

    But like many of the blue-collar jobs the President promised to save during his campaign, the future of these 3.5 million trucking jobs is less than certain. Fully automated trucks could put half of America’s truckers out of a job within a decade, The Los Angeles Times reported last year. This isn’t an imagined future. It’s already happening. Otto, an automated trucking company acquired by Uber, made a delivery of beer last year and has been approved to travel two routes in Ohio.

     

    Last year, Noel Perry, an analyst at industry research firm FTR Transportation Intelligence, told The International Business Times: “Despite a shortage in high-quality drivers, pay hasn’t gone up in five years. Trucks are easier to drive.” So-called “soft-automation” features, like automatic braking and lane assist, mean the trucks can already be driven by less experienced operators commanding smaller salaries. Even ahead of automation, the profession is losing traction. Perry’s final remark to IBT strikes to the heart of the matter?—?“The free market produces jobs, the government doesn’t.”

    Now imagine, telling lower level lawyers, doctors, programmers, accountants, etc, that their jobs are at risk now.  While many people would scoff at the notion, they are likely the same people who scoffed at the notion of trucks being automated ten years ago.  Denis Sproten explained a lot of the history and future of automation of labor recently:

    A short introduction, first there were the luddites, destroying machinery, which automated mundane tasks. People tell us, we should be happy that we don’t need to do these anymore. This is all history, from which we moved on:

    • Working the fields / weaving: Let’s assume that required a machine with IQ 80 or MIQ of 80, production increased and more products were sold on markets, consumption increased, transportation was needed and distribution of goods into shops. More roads were needed etc, we found a replacement occupation in the next layer.
    • Working as a driver / service industry : assume it requires a machine of IQ 100-110, more complex tasks, product knowledge, navigation, forms to be filled, start of knowledge industry. These jobs are being replaced now as we get automated trucks, drones delivering, online shops replacing shops on the street.
    • Working in an office Knowledge Industry : assume it requires an IQ of 100-120, even more complex tasks, which involve creation of new products, design, programming, lawyers, accountants, doctors etc. We are not there yet, but we soon will have AI which can do basic tasks of doctors, writing news articles, design thinking, algorithms which categorise knowledge and lets you search it.

     

    People are being pushed to become Data Scientists, AI programmers, math geniuses writing algorithms, all jobs which likely require an IQ of 130+. Programs can now write music and are starting to be creative.

     

     

    The trend I see is that, yes we will be able to find new jobs, but they will require really highly intelligent people, which covers only a small percentage of the population, no matter how much education they have received. Maybe becoming cyborgs will be the answer, if we believe Elon Musk.

    More “intelligent” machines below the scale of a true “A.I.” means a growing number of jobs will be “outsourced” to machines, and they will never be coming back.  Even now, you likely find yourself with less reason to visit the doctor, because you can just go on WebMD and see if there is a simple solution to what ails you.  Imagine that function being extrapolated across a series of machines at the basic level of medicine, to serve your needs for more common medical questions/issues.  Wouldn’t that eliminate the need for a significant number of medical professionals?

    Medicine is just one example, because truly nothing is off limits.  “Humans Need Not Apply” explained this masterfully over two years ago – if you think your job is “safe” because “a machine could never do it,” you better think again.

    (Note: This video is 15 minutes long, and while I’m hesitant to post lengthy videos, since the attention span of viewers for short clips drops significantly after one minute, you may reconsider your job security after seeing this one.)

    All of this is a precursor to a topic I plan on discussing in the future – not if, but when, a machine is created that is as capable (or more likely, far superior to and more capable than) as a human being.  What will that machine look like and be capable of?  How will it view and process the existence of humans, and/or threat human beings pose to its own existence?  It is something you have seen in many sci-fi movies, and discussed by many billionaire business moguls and scientists.  Still, there are many aspects of A.I. that have not been touched on by the ongoing discussion, mostly related to how a machine would react, knowing that it is superior to its human creators.

    In the meantime, while the machines created today and in the near future might not be more capable than their human creators, they are going to become exceedingly efficient at the jobs they are built to do.  And one of those jobs a machine might replace, is yours.  Whether this is something that a politician is willing to discuss or not, you should think long and hard about what it will take for a machine to replace you in the workplace, and what you will do with your life if that happens to you while you’re still in your working years.

  • Snowden: What The Wikileaks Revelations Show Is "Reckless Beyond Words"

    While it has been superficially covered by much of the press – and one can make the argument that what Julian Assange has revealed is more relevant to the US population, than constant and so far unconfirmed speculation that Trump is a puppet of Putin – the fallout from the Wikileaks’ “Vault 7” release this morning of thousands of documents demonstrating the extent to which the CIA uses backdoors to hack smartphones, computer operating systems, messenger applications and internet-connected televisions, will be profound.

    As evidence of this, the WSJ cites an intelligence source who said that “the revelations were far more significant than the leaks of Edward Snowden.”

    Mr. Snowden’s leaks revealed names of programs, companies that assist the NSA in surveillance and in some cases the targets of American spying. But the recent leak purports to contain highly technical details about how surveillance is carried out. That would make them far more revealing and useful to an adversary, this person said. In one sense, Mr. Snowden provided a briefing book on U.S. surveillance, but the CIA leaks could provide the blueprints.

    Speaking of Snowden, the former NSA contractor-turned-whistleblower, who now appears to have a “parallel whisteblower” deep inside the “Deep State”, i.e., the source of the Wikileaks data – also had some thoughts on today’s CIA dump.

    In a series of tweets, Snowden notes that “what @Wikileaks has here is genuinely a big deal”, and makes the following key observations “If you’re writing about the CIA/@Wikileaks story, here’s the big deal: first public evidence USG secretly paying to keep US software unsafe” and adds that “the CIA reports show the USG developing vulnerabilities in US products, then intentionally keeping the holes open. Reckless beyond words.”

    He then asks rhetorically “Why is this dangerous?” and explains “Because until closed, any hacker can use the security hole the CIA left open to break into any iPhone in the world.

    His conclusion, one which many of the so-called conspiratorial bent would say was well-known long ago: “Evidence mounts showing CIA & FBI knew about catastrophic weaknesses in the most-used smartphones in America, but kept them open — to spy.

    To which the increasingly prevalent response has become: “obviously.”

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  • Only In Cali – Strip Poker Playing Ex-Mayor Stole Money From Kids Programs To Fund Filipino Fetish

    Last summer we wrote about the arrest of Stockton, California’s mayor, Anthony Silva, after an FBI investigation resulted in charges of playing strip poker and providing alcohol to minors at a youth camp he ran for impoverished children (see “Politicians Gone Wild: Underage Strip Poker, Meth For Sex, & White Males Need Not Apply“).

    As if that weren’t bad enough, Silva is back in the news today after once again being arrested at the San Francisco International Airport on a whole new slate of charges including embezzlement, money laundering and grand theft with aggravated white collar crime enhancements.

    Charges were brought by the San Joaquin District Attorney and allege that between 2010 and 2014 Silva stole “hundreds of thousands of dollars” from the Boys and Girls Club of Stockton through a variety of embezzlement schemes.  That said, the depth of the embezzlement is still unknown as the DA is reviewing a total of $2.7 million that flowed out of Club accounts over the four year period in question. Per ABC 10:

    The DA alleges in the six felony counts, from January 1, 2010 to February 24, 2014, Silva defrauded and ripped off hundreds of thousands of dollars from the Stockton Kids Club.

     

    They allege he pocketed the cash into his own personal bank account, taking control of Kids Club bank accounts and credit cards.

     

    The DA said $2.7 million in a three year period flowed out of the Kids Club accounts in the form of “at best” 50,000 checks.

     

    “How and where it went, we don’t know,” Deputy DA Robert Himelblau said.

    So what did Silva spend the money on?  Well, apparently a good portion of the funds went to cover several trips to the Philippines as well as the monthly dues associated with an online dating website called “filipinocupid.com” and numerous stays at his local Motel 6.  We assume his Motel 6 stays were funded by the hour which helped to preserve at least some cash for the poor kids of Stockton.

    “He destroyed 45 years of good work at the Boys & Girls Club, a well-respected and heavily endowed institution for his own personal, ill gotten gains,” District Attorney Tori Verber Salazar said.

     

    Silva allegedly used the cash on dating website filipinocupid.com. He also allegedly used the money on trips to the Philippines, South Lake Tahoe, Motel 6 and Best Buy.

     

    Silva is also accused of what Himelblau called “double dipping.” He explained employees who work at the Stockton Kids Club are paid by the Stockton Unified School District.

     

    But, Himelblau said evidence was found that Silva also pocketed grant money given to the Kids Club by the national Boys & Girls Club.

     

    “Then what Mr. Silva did was create a duplicate set of time cards and submitted them to the national Boys & Girl Club. That’s the double dipping scheme. Those are the documents Mr. Silva signed saying he would not receive reimbursement for duplicate services,” Himelblau said

    Silva plead not guilty to all 6 charges and is currently being detained on a $1 million bail. 

    It’s no wonder that TV ratings are in the tank…it’s almost impossible to make up content salacious enough to compete with reality.

     

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