Today’s News 7th July 2016

  • Meanwhile In Greece, Homeless Family Of 5 Lives In Carton Boxes

    Just when you think, you’ve seen and heard everything possible and impossible in Greece with regard austerity and the crisis… there comes this incredible human story: a family of five living in carton boxes in the city of Patras in western Greece.

    As KeepTalkingGreece.com details, the family ended up on the streets after a labor accident of the father. The family has no income. For the last 8 months, the two adults and the three children live in a provisional “shelter” made of carton boxes they have places in a corner of an abandoned and half-constructed building.

    The parents need to feed two toddlers aged 1.5 and 3.5 years old and an older child from the father’s previous marriage.

    The family receives no disability pension or any allowance from the state that can help them make a living.

    “They tell their children that living in boxes is a game,” local media TheBest.gr reports.

    The father is unable to work. The family’s relatives cannot help them as they are also in dire economic situation.

    They get meals from the local church, a neighbor to the building gives them from time to time the opportunity to take a bath.

    Basic sanitary conditions are non-existent, the smell where these people live is beyond any description.

    The father has been unemployed for the last 3.5 years. His leg was badly cut during works with a chainsaw.

    Speaking to thebest.gr, the father said, he wished to have space in a plot to put a tent for his family and two hens in order to have something to feed his children.

    And a job. “Anything that will help me be back on track.”

  • “Italian Government Collapse More Than Just A Possibility”

    Submitted by Mish Shedlock of MishTalk

     

    Four new polls show comedian Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement (M5S) ahead of prime minister  Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party (PD) were an election held today.

    The next election will be no later than May 23, 2018. Renzi promised to step down if he fails a constitutional reform referendum later this year.

    The reform referendum will likely be held no later than this October.

     

    Beppe Grillo – Comedian Founder of Five Star Movement

    Renzi Rocked Yet Again

    Please consider Renzi Rocked as Five Star Surges in Polls.

    The populist Five Star Movement has emerged as Italy’s leading political party, overtaking Matteo Renzi’s ruling Democratic party (PD) in four separate opinion polls that have exposed the growing vulnerability of the country’s centre-left prime minister.

     

    The primacy of the Five Star Movement, which is led by the sardonic comedian Beppe Grillo and has called for a referendum on ditching the euro, reflects a shift in public opinion against Mr Renzi that will heighten fears of a return to political instability and uncertainty in the single currency’s third largest economy.

     

    “A government collapse is more than just a possibility, it is a scenario that we are looking at very closely,” said Federico Santi, an analyst at the Eurasia Group consultancy. “The trend has been clearly bad for the ruling party and favourable to the Five Star Movement, driven by issues — like migration, the banking troubles and corruption scandals — that are not going to go away. It’s hard to see what it could take for Renzi and the PD to make a comeback at this point.”

     

    According to polls released on Wednesday by Ipsos, the Five Star Movement is supported by 30.6 per cent of Italians, compared with 29.8 per cent for the PD. Similar polls in January had Mr Renzi’s party leading the Five Star Movement by nearly six percentage points. In the 2014 European elections, shortly after Mr Renzi took office, the PD defeated the Five Star Movement by nearly 20 percentage points.

     

    Three other surveys taken after the Brexit vote also showed the Five Star Movement ahead, with the next national elections due in early 2018.

     

    One by Demos released on July 1 showed the party ahead by a margin of 32.3 per cent to 30.2 per cent over Mr Renzi’s PD. Others by Euromedia and EMG showed the Five Star Movement with narrower leads of 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points. Another poll showed the Democratic party hanging on to a narrow lead.

     

    The polls look even darker for Mr Renzi if the likelihood of a run-off between the two largest parties — which is called for under Italy’s new electoral law if no party exceeds 40 per cent — is taken into account. In those scenarios, the Five Star Movement would defeat the PD by as much as ten percentage points, as right-wing voters would coalesce around the protest party.

     

    Beneath the surface, there is increasing talk of what might happen should his efforts fail. Most likely, said Mr Santi, a technocratic government would have to take charge, rather than a quick move to fresh elections. But no clear candidate has yet emerged who would take the reins.

    Credibility of the Italian Political Class at Stake.

    Renzi asked voters to stick with him and promised an aggressive campaign in favor of the referendum.

    His rationale is laughable: “The referendum is not crucial for the destiny of an individual, but for the future credibility of the Italian political class,” said Renzi.

    Are voters really supposed to rally around the notion of saving the credibility of the ruling political class?

    Wow! The statement is so ridiculous one has to wonder if Renzi secretly wants the referendum defeated.

    40% the New Majority

    The referendum would shrink the Italian senate and give a majority of parliament to any political party that could achieve 40% of the vote in national elections.

    If no party achieved 40%, a runoff would take place and the winner would automatically receive a majority of parliament.

    Curiously, M5S is against this reform although it may the best way for Grillo to get the vote he seeks on leaving the Euro.

    Renzi Stung in Mayoral Elections

    In recent mayoral elections Renzi’s party went down in defeat in in Rome, Turin, Naples and Trieste. Rome and Turin went to the Five Star Movement.

    For mayoral details and details of the constitutional referendum, please see Stinging Defeat of Renzi in Italian Mayoral Elections; 40% the Proposed New Majority

    Italian Banking System Near Collapse

    Monte dei Paschi, the oldest bank in the world, and Italy’s third largest is so woefully undercapitalized that even the ECB recognizes that fact.

    On July 4, I commented the ECB Triggers Another Bank Shares Selloff, Tells Monte dei Paschi to Shed More Assets.

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the ECB are at odds with Renzi over how to fix €360 billion in nonperforming loans in the Italian banking system.

    Merkel rebuffed Renzi’s request for state sponsored bank bailouts on four occasions.

    On June 30, I asked Italy’s Zombie Banks on Death Bed, Bail-Ins Coming?

    Merkel chastised Renzi, “We wrote the rules for the credit system, we cannot change them every two years.

    Under a bail-in scheme bondholders and depositors will take a huge hit. Voters are already angry over the bail-in of bondholder of much smaller Banca Etruria last December.

    In Italy, individual investors own close to €200 billion in Italian bank bonds. Imagine the anger should they lose even a portion of their investments.

    This is why Italy Threatens to Defy Merkel, Brussels Over bank Bailouts.

    Italy on the Euro

    What has the Euro done for Germany vs. Italy?

    Voters Hold the Key

    Yesterday I asked Can the EU Survive as a Prison? Who Has the Keys?

    The short answer is voters hold the key, and they are already mad as hell. If bail-ins happen, it will be the end of the Renzi government for sure.

    Renzi Slams Deutsche Bank

    ZeroHedge has an excellent article out today on the state of Deutsche Bank through the eyes of Renzi.

    Please consider A Furious Italian Prime Minister Slams Deutsche Bank As Europe’s Most Insolvent Bank

    In a surprising admission of reality, none other than Italy’s prime minister Matteo Renzi, “went there” and slammed Deutsche Bank as the true “derivative problem” facing Europe.

     

    As Reuters adds, speaking at a joint news conference with Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven, Renzi said other European banks had much bigger problems than their Italian counterparts.

     

    “If this non-performing loan problem is worth one, the question of derivatives at other banks, at big banks, is worth one hundred. This is the ratio: one to one hundred,” Renzi said

    So just like that the Mutually Assured Destruction doctrine is activated, because now that Deutsche Bank’s dirty laundry has been exposed for all to see, Renzi’s gambit is clear: if Merkel does not relent on bailing out Italian banks, the collapse of Italian banks will assure the failure of Deutsche Bank in kind.

    Also see Diving Into Deutsche Bank’s “Passion to Perform” Balance Sheet.

    This kind of insanity is precisely why the euro is doomed.

    Get Out Now!

    I repeat my warning from last December: Get Your Money Out of Italian Banks Now!

  • SeRVeRGaTE FoR FRiNGe LoWBRoWS…

    PATRIOT 2.0

     

    He released TOP SECRET INFORMATION to expose how the gubmint is illegally spying on all of us…

     

     

    .
    MSM LIPSTICK

     

    She released TOP SECRET INFORMATION because she is an extremely careless and lazy assed pig…

     

    .
    LEAVING ON A JET PLANE

     

    He did it to her in a private jet.

    She does not understand the meaning of : “A lawyer shall avoid the mere appearance of impropriety.”

     

    .
    James B. Comey

     

    He is a clown.

     

    .
    BANANA REPUBLIK

     

    He ate the HillBilly Investigation.

     

    .
    YOUNG DONALD TRUMP

     

    He is going to have a field day in the debates.

  • Globalists Are Now Openly Demanding New World Order Centralization

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    I have said it many times in the past – when elitist criminals start openly admitting to their schemes it means that they are ready to pull the plug on the current system. They simply don’t care anymore who knows their plans because they think that victory is inevitable.

    There have been more subtle and less prominently published calls for a "new world order" in the past, to be sure.  However, at no other time have I seen international financiers and their puppet political mouthpieces so brazen about calling for global centralization than in the wake of the successful Brexit referendum. It is as if the Brexit flipped a switch in the existing narrative and set loose a flood of new propaganda, all aimed at convincing the general public that central banks must combine forces and act as one institution in order to combat an economic crisis that isn’t even visible to laymen yet.

    Though I predicted the activation of this propaganda campaign in my article “Brexit: Global Trigger Event, Fake Out Or Something Else?,” published before the referendum vote took place, the speed at which it is developing is truly astonishing.

    Now, under the current circumstances of the previous week’s market rally post-Brexit (driven by hopes of central bank intervention and extremely low trading volume) one would think that the globalist calls for total centralization of financial policy management don't make much sense. Where is this “crisis” that the bankers keep warning about?

    As I outlined in great detail in recent articles, I believe the Brexit to be a partial trigger event for a future market disaster that has been engineered for many years. That is to say, a worldwide financial calamity has been deliberately staged in advance, and the Brexit is meant to act as a scapegoat for it.  The fundamentals of the global economy have been increasingly negative since 2008, and the only "indicator" left to appear positive has been stocks.

    There are plenty of people out there who assume that equities have escaped without consequence after the UK referendum because of the pre-4th of July rally. However, I would suggest they not get too comfortable with the hollow low volume spike in stocks at this early stage.

    These kinds of rallies should not be a surprise. They were common during the derivatives and credit crash that struck in 2008 after Bear Sterns and Lehman. Ultimately, stocks are an irrelevant faith driven indicator, and the fundamentals will always win in the end.

    As Forbes notes in a surprisingly honest analysis — the “Lehman moment” of 2008 was not really a “moment” at all. The derivatives crash was driven by numerous frailties within the debt bubble structure; Lehman was just a higher profile element of a more chaotic mess. When Lehman’s bankruptcy went public, equities took a considerable dive, rather similar in velocity to that which occurred right after the Brexit referendum. But, only a week later stocks had rallied back near the exact highs seen before Lehman had folded.

    The psychology of market investors is to always first go with what they are familiar with and what they have been conditioned to do, much like Pavlovian dogs. Investors today, as then, were conditioned to “buy the dip no matter what”. Of course, once reality and the fundamentals set in, stocks were back in free-fall only two weeks later.

    The Brexit is not going away, and the negative effects it heralds are still barely visible to the mainstream. This process is going to be actively weighing on the markets for months as investors continue to lose their blind faith in the system. We haven’t even begun the party yet, and this is assuming there are no other catalyzing moments around the corner.

    Beyond the mechanics of the economy, the elites themselves are often a good litmus test for predicting what is about to take place within the stock casino and outside the stock casino.

    The fact that the mainstream financial media is now awash in calls for extreme measures in central bank coordination and numerous elites warning of greater crisis should be of some concern to the public. Just as the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of a crash back in 2007 and early 2008 and were proven “correct,” they have also been warning of a crash in 2016. Post-Brexit, the chorus of “warnings” from the elites has exploded. They are rarely wrong about economic crisis exactly because they are the people that create the conditions for crisis in the first place.

    George Soros continues to claim that the Brexit has “accelerated a financial-market crisis” even after the latest stock rally.

    Bloomberg, in support of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, published an article titled “Draghi Wishes For A New World Order Populists Will Love To Hate.” Bloomberg later removed the word “New” from the title.

    The article repeats a rising call by central bankers around the world to stop concerning themselves with “domestic” policies and problems and start coordinating globally to deal with “global problems.” The BIS ALREADY controls the policy making decisions of all other central banks as admitted in the infamous Harpers expose on the BIS titled “Ruling The World Of Money.” But this is never mentioned by Draghi or Bloomberg.

    Interestingly, the BIS is now arguing not only for global policy coordination, but also GLOBAL RULES for all central banks. If the BIS already controls the policy decisions of the Federal Reserve, the ECB, and every other central bank member, then why do they want “global rules” put in place for those same central banks?

    They are doing this because the goal, the end game, is for the general masses to accept and even demand a global central bank, either in the form of the BIS or the IMF, or perhaps both of them combined into a single entity. Once again, the elites are using the Hegelian problem-reaction-solution strategy to manipulate the public into wanting globalist control.

    The BIS has been building up to this moment for quite some time.  In May, for example, BIS chief economist Claudio Borio argued that a "new global monetary order" was needed to replace the dollar system.  This new system would prevent crisis by reigning in all national central banks under rules which would force them to act in a coordinated fashion, apparently under the administration of the BIS itself.  Now it would seem the central bankers have the beginnings of their "crisis" which they clearly plan to put to good use.

    In yet another recent article Bloomberg calls for central banks to “kiss their domestic bias goodbye”; arguing that national economies are now so “intertwined” that central banks all need to work off a single set of guidelines in support of the global economy rather than individual national economies.

    On the day after the Brexit vote, China stated its desire for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to work closely with World Bank. For years I have been pointing out that the Chinese never had any intention for the AIIB to become a counter-system to the IMF or World Bank and that the Chinese were working with the globalists, not against them. Now we have open confirmation.

    The Chinese premier also warned of a “butterfly effect” leading to crisis after the Brexit, and called for “enhanced coordination” among all the economies of the world.

    European Union officials are going for broke as they suggest the formation of a European “super state” in the wake of the UK referendum. This system would essentially erase political boundaries and sovereign borders to make the EU a single entity in every capacity up to and including a single European army.

    The amplified calls for total centralization and a “New World Order” go on and on, and I believe they are a blaring signal that something very ugly is about to happen.

    Consider this: Central banks will never gain public support for globally centralized policy or a global economic authority unless they are proven right and a crash does indeed take place. The crash does not necessarily need to be immediate and “total”, as some liberty movement activists assume. It is more likely to be gradual and micromanaged, though still resulting in a level of suffering in certain regions not seen since the Great Depression.

    More bank coordination requires more chaos and examples of “conflicting policies,” which will probably take the form of “currency wars” among certain nations. The elites must conjure a theater in which some central banks work at cross purposes and muck up any potential recovery. They can then argue to the public that a single internationally recognized and obeyed global banking authority is needed to prevent this sort of thing from ever happening again.

    The concept of central banks “working globally” rather than domestically could only be sold to the masses if a fiscal disaster was triggered on a global scale that outmatched the needs of any single nation state. Each central banker initiative suggested after the Brexit requires a financial implosion in order to be justified.

    In my next article I will be listing the many reasons why I believe the globalist plan for centralization and a NWO is destined to fail. This does not mean, though, that extensive effort and sacrifice will not be necessary in the near future on our part. For now, vigilance is our best defense. The elites are telling us exactly what is about to happen through their very behavior and statements. It is time for those who are aware of the bigger picture to start listening if they are not already, and prepare accordingly.

  • US Marines To Accept Chubbier Women

    In an effort to maintain the new status quo of cutting standards everywhere in the name of equality and "progress", the Marine Corps announced major changes over the Fourth of July holiday weekend regarding how much it will allow service members to weigh, and the biggest shift comes for women: going forward "larger" ladies will be allowed to defend the country while also standards used within the physical fitness test will also be relaxed.  

    In a document released by USMC Fitness division, the new height and weight standard took effect on July 1, 2016 and is relaxing regulations to increase the pool of potential parties. Think of it as a covenant lite loan in a way… only "heavy."  Why would the US do this?  One could be excused for understandably saying that the US is becoming more progressive and is accommodating those who have the heart to serve but not necessary the physical capability.

     We see a different reason for the US to be relaxing admission tests, which is this chart highlighting weak capacity from the Heritage US Military Strength Index:

    What's changing? According to the Washington Post, the Marine Corps will now allow chubbier women to, so to say, slip through the cracks.

    "Female Marines will be allowed to weigh five to seven pounds more than before for each inch of their height, according to new guidelines published by the service. A 5-foot-6 woman, for example, was previously allowed to weigh up to 155 pounds, but can now be 161. A 5-foot-9 woman was allowed to be up to 169 pounds, but can now be 176."

    The Corps is also relaxing the rules on pull-ups. The new rule will eliminate fixed-arm hanging as an alternative choice to pull-ups for women. In place of fixed-arm hanging women, and men, will have the option to choose push-ups instead. The incentive remains skewed toward the more demanding pull-up, as Military.com explains:

    "'Push-ups become an option on the PFT, but Marines are incentivized toward pull-ups, as these are a better test of functional, dynamic upper body strength and correlate stronger to physically demanding tasks,' Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Robert Neller said in an administrative message to the Corps released Friday. 'Push-ups are also a valid exercise and good test; however maximum points can only be earned by executing pull-ups.'"

    Explaining the new physical fitness test requirements, Military.com went on to say:

    "The hybrid pull-up option is the Marines' solution to a four-year conundrum of how to promote pull-ups for all Marines without making it impossible for women to succeed."

    As we march further into a state of "gender equality" there is nothing wrong with admitting rules need to be eased but when it comes to defending a nation, is the best answer really to just relax the standards?  When we observe banking institutions do that with their prequalification requirements, the results are virtually always disastrous and in the last prominent case, led to a bailout of the entire financial system.

    Who will bailout the US military if pudgy push comes to shove.

    Either way, these are the new rules.  We have reported extensively on robots replacing workers and as that trend spreads deeper into the workforce, expect the American military to relax admission requirements even further to "help" accomodate even greater enlistment numbers by those who have been recently displaced by a robotic "Johnny 5" barrista.

    Full message from Gen. Robert Neller:

    R 011230Z JUL 16

    ALMAR 022/16

    MSGID/GENADMIN/CMC WASHINGTON DC DMCS//

    SUBJ/CHANGES TO THE PHYSICAL FITNESS TEST (PFT), COMBAT FITNESS TEST (CFT), AND BODY COMPOSITION PROGRAM (BCP)//

    REF/A/ALMAR 030/15 REVIEW OF PHYSICAL FITNESS AND BODY COMPOSITION STANDARDS// GENTEXT/REMARKS/

     

    1.  Last November we began a comprehensive review of physical fitness and body composition standards.  Subsequent efforts focused on developing a physical fitness program that incentivizes behavior toward an end state of a healthy and fit force able to better answer the call in any clime and place.  The review was a collaborative effort that drew from fitness experts and Marines, and provided wide-ranging options for consideration.

     

    2.  As a result, a number of PFT and CFT changes are being implemented that ensure standards are relevant, challenging, and also allow for greater distinction between Marines of different fitness levels and age groups.  There are significant adjustments to the PFT and CFT scoring tables, requiring most Marines to demonstrate greater performance to meet the new minimum and maximum standards.  A major change to the PFT is the elimination of the Flexed Arm Hang for females and incorporation of a push-up / pull-up hybrid event for all Marines, recruits, and officer candidates.  Push-ups become an option on the PFT, but Marines are incentivized toward pull-ups, as these are a better test of functional, dynamic upper body strength and correlate stronger to physically demanding tasks.  Push-ups are also a valid exercise and good test; however maximum points can only be earned by executing pull-ups.  These changes go into effect 1 Jan 2017.

     

    3.  Performance on the PFT and CFT will also be a consideration in BCP decisions.  Marines scoring 285 and higher on both the PFT and CFT will be exempt from weight and body fat (BF) limits.  Marines scoring 250 and higher on both the PFT and CFT will be afforded an additional 1 percent BF.  However, all Marines are still subject to the requirements of the Military Appearance Program.  These changes also go into effect 1 Jan 2017.

     

    4.  Other changes to BCP include modifying the maximum allowable weight limits for female Marines, use of more precise tape measuring devices and de-centralizing BCP waiver granting authority from Manpower and Reserve Affairs (Manpower Management) to the first General Officer in a Marine’s chain of command.  These BCP changes go into effect immediately.

     

    5.  Additional details, including the new PFT/CFT scoring tables, physical fitness training recommendations, and BCP adjustments are available at:  https:(slash)(slash)fitness.usmc.mil.  Follow-on MARADMINS will further address administrative details and the associated Marine Corps Orders will be updated accordingly.

     

    6.  America expects its Marine Corps to be the most ready when the Nation is least ready.  Collectively, these are the biggest changes to the PFT since 1972 and CFT since 2009.  We will monitor the effects of these adjustments for two years and then adjust if required to ensure our standards continue to contribute to the effectiveness of our force and enhance our ability to respond when our Nation calls.

     

    7.  Robert B. Neller, General, U.S. Marine Corps, Commandant of the Marine Corps.//

  • A Period Of Major Civil Unrest Looms – How To Win An Inevitable Confrontation With The Status Quo

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    At this point I’d like to remind everyone that crime in the U.S. has been dropping since the 1990’s. So why has domestic police force militarization been growing exponentially since then? Ostensibly, it is for the “war on terror” and to keep us safe. In reality, we know this is bullshit. Just like the NSA’s unconstitutional spying hasn’t stopped a single terrorist attack, turning local cops into a domestic army hasn’t done a single thing to make us safe. To the contrary, it is creating an environment where the general public harbors increased resentment and skepticism toward police, and the police view the citizenry as the “enemy.” This takes the societal tinderbox that already exists and makes it downright explosive. Ferguson is just the latest example of the tension bubbling to the surface, but there will likely be many more in the future.

     

    – From the 2014 post: “A Good Time Was Had By All” – The Obamas Dance the Night Away as Ferguson, Missouri Burns

    Last spring, I highlighted the egregious and barbaric shooting of Walter L. Scott as he fled from a South Charleston, South Carolina police officer. In light of recent events, it’s crucial to recall the sordid details of this case. As such, here’s a excerpt from the post, South Carolina Cop to Be Charged with Murder for Shooting Man 8 Times in the Back as He Ran Away:

    The video at the end of this story is really hard to watch. Not just because we see a police officer gunning down a man as he ran away, but because he repeatedly yells at a dead body to “put his hands behind his back,” and then seemingly plants his taser by the corpse to cover up the crime.

     

    Just like with banker theft, unless people are held accountable with serious jail time, the criminality will not only continue, it will get worse. The rule of law must be restored and applied equally to the rich and powerful, or we are truly doomed as a society.

     

     

    Although I haven’t been as focused on police brutality and murder this year, that doesn’t mean the problem’s gone away. Just yesterday, a very disturbing incident occurred in Baton Rouge, Louisiana that once again looks a lot like straight up police murder. As is often the case, the victim was a marginalized black man merely trying to make a buck in an incredibly corrupt and rigged economy.

    Here’s the tragic case of Alton Sterling, as reported by the New York Times:

    Scores of protesters gathered in Baton Rouge, La., on Tuesday night after a black man was fatally shot in an encounter with police officers earlier in the day, an incident that was captured in a graphic cellphone video that began circulating on social media.

     

    The victim, Alton Sterling, 37, was killed in a shooting at about 12:35 a.m. on Tuesday, the Baton Rouge police said in a statement. The police had received a call from someone who reported having been threatened by an armed man wearing a red shirt who was selling CDs outside a store in the eastern part of the city, the statement said.

     

    A police spokeswoman reached early Wednesday said that she could not comment beyond the statement, which provided no details of what it called an “altercation” between Mr. Sterling and the two officers who responded.

     

    William Clark, the coroner of East Baton Rouge Parish who is known as Beau, said that Mr. Sterling had died at the scene from multiple gunshot wounds to the chest and back.

     

    A cellphone video shot by a bystander, which was released later in the day, showed Mr. Sterling being tackled by a police officer. He is then held to the ground by two officers, and one of the officers appears to hold a gun above Mr. Sterling’s chest.

    In a Twitter post early Wednesday, the Rev. Jesse L. Jackson called the shooting a “legal lynching.”

    Before you accuse Mr. Jackson of exaggeration, watch the video below and make up your own mind.

    I think it’s quite fitting that the shameless police murder above occurred on the exact same day that Hillary Clinton was set free by the top cops in the nation thanks solely to her position of power and influence. Benjamin Dixon said it perfectly last month in the following tweet:

    None of this will be lost upon a citizenry which is already seething with rage and very close to a tipping point. Increasingly, the general public is coming to the very unpleasant realization that they live in a corporate oligarchy in which they are subjects rather than citizens. The more they are pushed into a corner, the sooner they will lash out in all sorts of ways.

    The generational level revolts I anticipate have been a long time coming and will emanate from both rural, largely white America, as well from inner city communities populated mostly by minorities. The key thing we must all bear in mind going into the turbulent times ahead is that we are all in this together. 

    The status quo doesn’t care whether you are black, white, Jewish, Muslim, Christian, male, female, straight, gay or transgender. To the status quo we are all expendable peasants — cannon fodder. The establishment loves to play up the differences between us in order to divide us, but they don’t care about any of us. They will allocate all their energy and efforts into dividing and conquering the public in the period of civil unrest to come. If we fall for this trap we will have only ourselves to blame for the failure to turn grassroots protests into genuine, systemic change.

    The other key variable as to whether the forthcoming rebellions result in any positive change will revolve around what form they take. When I say civil unrest, I am well aware that this likely means some degree of violence and looting; however, such expressions of frustration will do far more harm than good. We must recognize that as it stands the status quo has no actual legitimacy, and therefore can only succeed if it’s able to portray the abused public as the bad guys, and sell us on the idea that the U.S. government is the only thing standing between us and violent mobs.

    If you want to win this battle, you need to be smart. Winning the hearts and minds of the general public is absolutely critical, and shouldn’t be difficult in an environment in which the establishment discredits itself on a daily basis.

    To summarize, I think the activist community across American needs to do two things:

    1. Stick together. Black, white, rural, urban, we are all in this together. Don’t allow yourselves to become divided — we have the same opponent. Never forget that.

     

    2. Keep things non-violent. If violence happens, always make sure the government fires the first shots. If the general public perceives you to be out there looking for a fight as opposed to reacting to state aggression, you will lose. Think outside the box, be creative and employ non-violent civil disobedience whenever possible.

    A perfect example of what not to do was seen earlier this year in Oregon. See: A Stupid Standoff but a Just Cause – My Thoughts on the Hammond Situation.

    John Lennon had it absolutely right. If we’re going to achieve real paradigm-level positive change we must always remember his words:

    Screen Shot 2016-07-06 at 9.42.37 AM

  • China To Boost "Economic Growth" By Changing Definition Of GDP

    In the summer of 2013, at a time when the topic of soaring US debt was still paramount to the US public (total debt is now a far more ludicrous, and gargantuan, $19.3 trillion but nobody cares since all the central banks are monetizing global debt at an unprecedented pace and investors are happy to frontrun them, thus keeping yields low) the US surprised everyone by “increasing” GDP, and thus reducing the debt/GDP ratio which was at about 100%, in a very simple way: it changed the definition of GDP, in the process boosting GDP by about $500 billion, or 3%, with the flip of an Excel spreadsheet switch.

    This is what we reported at the time:

    The US economy will officially become 3 per cent bigger in July as part of a shake-up that will see government statistics take into account 21st century components such as film royalties and spending on research and development. Billions of dollars of intangible assets will enter the gross domestic product of the world’s largest economy in a revision aimed at capturing the changing nature of US output. Brent Moulton, who manages the national accounts at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, told the Financial Times that the update was the biggest since computer software was added to the accounts in 1999.

    Fast forward three years later, when the biggest fabricator of economic data in the world, China, finally realized that its lowly disciple, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, has overtaken it. And since China will never rest if it is upstaged in this particular area, China has announced that it too was about to adopt new methodology to assess the economic contribution of the various new sectors of the economy, said Xu Xianchun, a deputy head of the National Bureau of Statistics, cited by China Securities Journal. China’s official GDP growth has been underestimated due to the emergence of this “new economy,” he said.

    Specifically, the NBS announced on July 5 that it will adopt the current System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008 standard by treating R&D expenditure as part of capital formation, or in other words, China will do in 2016 what the US did in 2013.

    The outcome: billions in “economic output”, retroactively created out of thin air as a result of growth that had previously not been accounted for.

    How much growth is China about to add from a mere change in definitions? As it turns out not much (as China’s GDP is measured in terms of Y/Y growth and not in absolute amount), but it will be sufficient to, as Goldman puts it, “eases stimulus pressures on the margin.

    Or, just like in the case of the US, China will have suddenly grown more than it actually grew, even when in reality it may well have been contracting.

    Here is the explanation of Goldman’s Yu Song. 

    Under the new method, the size of the economy is larger than previously estimated; 2015 GDP was revised up by 1.3% to 11tn USD, the Real growth rate was also revised up (rates vary from year to year and averaged 0.06% (6 bps) over the past 5 years). The upward revision is because China’s R&D expenditure growth has been consistently faster than that of overall GDP–though the difference the change makes to the GDP growth rate is small as R&D is a small part of the economy. The NBS announced 1Q real growth was revised up by 0.04% (4bps), but it did not specify whether the growth rate is now 6.8% yoy or remains at 6.7% yoy. We believe the latter case is slightly more likely as an upward revision would have been highlighted. A higher trend level would mean 2Q GDP growth should be higher as well. As a result, we revise our Q2 real GDP growth forecast to 6.7% yoy from 6.6% yoy previously with slight upside risk to our full-year forecast of 6.6% yoy.

     

    Many other economies have already adopted the new method; we note China had been expected to do so as well though the change has come later than expected. As the new method is in accordance to the latest international standard, we do not expect it to have an incremental impact to sentiment around methodology/data credibility. We see this move as beneficial for the economy on the margin as it makes it slightly easier to quantify statistically how to achieve the target of doubling real income by 2020; the method provides added flexibility to pursing potentially necessary reforms. We note that sometimes reform can have a negative impact on short-term growth and the need to meet short-term growth targets can distract policy makers from reform initiatives leading to the potential risk of overstimulating the economy beyond its potential growth rate.

     

    Judging from the rise in inflation since the start of the year, the current level of potential growth is no higher than the recent actual level of around 6.7% yoy. This level is likely to moderate further in the coming years, because of the demographic headwind and modest pace of reform implementation. While the magnitude of the changes to growth rates appear to be small, we believe these seemingly small changes are relatively more important when growth is right around the target level, as opposed to when the economy is overheating or in recession. Furthermore, the move to the new standard opens room for further adjustment as self-owned housing services should now also be captured in GDP according to the SNA 2008 standard, potentially leading to a modestly higher growth rate. Other “new economy” activities such as sharing economy are also being considered according to news reports. In 2018, the government will also conduct the next economic census. As the new sectors in the economy are potentially underestimated by the standard methodology, which is relatively strong with the accounting of the production of tangible goods, previous census typically led to upward revisions to historical data. With further upward revisions, which appear likely, there should be incrementally lower pressures to reach the growth targets in the coming years.

     

    Real GDP growth was revised up marginally because R&D expenditure has been growing consistently faster than overall GDP

    Goldman’s conclusion is somewhat troubling for the world’s liquidity addicts as it means that instead of relying on trillions in new credit creation, China may tone it down to just hundreds of billions, and fill the gap with “optics.” This means that as a result of this “non-GAAP” GDP adjustment, China will be able to get away with an even faster true growth slowdown as long as it can fabricate enough numbers to get away with it.

    of course, it won’t end there, because in the new normal, where the world may have already hit its debt capacity (as Citi recently speculated), when all else fails, one’s economy will “grow” simply as a result of definition changes, changes which in the case of China, almost certainly make a minus sign into a plus.

  • It's Over: DOJ Won't File Charges Against Hillary, Ends Probe

    Well that didn’t take long… HILLARY CLINTON WILL NOT BE CHARGED FOR E-MAILS, LYNCH SAYS


    Bloomberg headlines

    • *ATTY GENERAL LYNCH SAYS SHE MET TODAY WITH FBI’S COMEY
    • *DOJ’S LYNCH ISSUES E-MAILED STATEMENT AFTER MEETING WITH COMEY
    • *LYNCH ACCEPTING RECOMMENDATION NOT TO CHARGE CLINTON ON E-MAILS
    • *LYNCH ACCEPTED FBI’S COMEY, AGENTS’ UNANIMOUS RECOMMENDATION

    Note: “unanimous

    As AP reports,

    Attorney General Loretta Lynch says the Hillary Clinton email investigation is being closed without any criminal charges.

     

    Lynch announced the Justice Department decision Wednesday, one day after FBI Director James Comey recommended against any prosecution.

     

    The decision was largely a formality given Comey’s public statement on the case.

     

    Lynch said last week that she intended to accept whatever recommendations and findings were presented by the FBI and by her career prosecutors.

    Here is the full statement from the US Attorney General Loretta Lynch regarding the State Department’s email investigation:

    “Late this afternoon, I met with FBI Director James Comey and career prosecutors and agents who conducted the investigation,” Lynch said in a statement. “I received and accepted their unanimous recommendation that the thorough, year-long investigation be closed and that no charges be brought against any individuals within the scope of the investigation.”

    As The Hill adds, Lynch largely relinquished her role overseeing the investigation following outrage that she met privately with former President Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton’s husband, on the tarmac at Phoenix’s airport, in what she has described as a purely social but nonetheless inappropriate encounter. After facing backlash last week, Lynch said she would defer to the FBI and prosecutors’ recommendations. Which, incidentally, may have sparked an even greater flame of public anger.

    The Justice Department’s decision Wednesday nonetheless formally closes the book on the investigation into Clinton, which began with a referral from inspectors general at the State Department and intelligence agencies one year ago. The issue has loomed over Clinton’s campaign for longer, and criticism will likely continue to haunt her through the presidential election in November.

    Some critics questioned Comey’s decision to get out in front of Justice Department lawyers since prosecutors — not the FBI — ultimately decide whether to press ahead with charges. As such, his public announcement of his recommendation could be seen as tipping the scales.

    “I disagree with the FBI necessarily telling the prosecutors, ‘Here’s what you should do,’” Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr (R-N.C.) told The Hill off the Senate floor on Wednesday. “That should be left up to the Justice Department.”

    Burr nonetheless maintained that he had faith in the FBI’s “thorough” investigation, he said.

    The decision has inflamed criticism on Capitol Hill, where Republican lawmakers questioned how Clinton escaped indictment despite Comey’s scolding of her behavior as “extremely careless.”

    Comey will testify before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee on Wednesday to respond to critics’ allegations and defend the FBI’s efforts. Not like that will change anything, of course, because “what difference at this point does it make.” Incidentally, none at all. All that matters is that “justice” has again been served:

  • "Crazy" – The Complete Story Of Debt, In A 40 Minute Video

    Real Vision TV’s Grant Williams offers a true look into what is known as an absurd debt level and unimaginable central bank manipulation.  Less than a week ago we highlighted Grant’s comments on commodities.  Although the information contained in the video below is nothing new to Zero Hedge, we do enjoy the way the information is presented.  Set aside some time to listen as Grant tells a story about debt and the current investment landscape.

    Grant sees people “with more power than you can possibly imagine” as the ones responsible for experimental economics that led the world down a path of self destruction.  

    I don’t think there is any argument about whether or not the central bankers of the world should have done something in 2008.  The question is ‘should they still be doing it 8 years later‘?”

    We recommend viewing the entire clip

    ********

     

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Today’s News 6th July 2016

  • Surprise: Refugees Are Making The Military Industrial Complex Even Richer

    Via TheAntiMedia.org,

    As Europe comes to terms with a Brexit vote fueled in large part by anti-immigrant hate-mongering, a new report exposes how war profiteers are influencing EU policy to make money from unending Middle East conflicts as well as the wave of refugees created by that same instability and violence.

    The report (pdf), Border Wars: The Arms Dealers Profiting from Europe’s Refugee Tragedy, released jointly by the European Stop Wapenhandel and Transnational Institute (TNI) on Monday, outlines arms traders’ pursuit of profit in the 21st century’s endless conflicts.

    “There is one group of interests that have only benefited from the refugee crisis, and in particular from the European Union’s investment in ‘securing’ its borders,'” the report finds. “They are the military and security companies that provide the equipment to border guards, the surveillance technology to monitor frontiers, and the IT infrastructure to track population movements.”

     

    The report shows that “far from being passive beneficiaries of EU largesse, these corporations are actively encouraging a growing securitization of Europe’s borders, and willing to provide ever more draconian technologies to do this.”

    In the past decade, the report says, corporate players have viewed intractable Middle East warfare as a windfall: “Several large international arms companies cited instability in the Middle East to assure investors about future prospects for their business. The arms companies are assisted by European governments, which actively promote European arms in the region and are very reluctant, to say the least, to impose stricter arms export policies.”

    Indeed, “from 2005 to 2014, EU member states granted arms exports license to the Middle East and North Africa worth over 82 billion euros,” according to the report.

    The report details how a steady flow of arms from outside the Middle East supplies all players in multi-part conflicts, such as Syria’s civil war, with an endless supply of high-tech weaponry—thus ensuring that those conflicts endure.

    And as these wars create more and more refugees who seek asylum in Europe, the very same corporations are lobbying the EU to ‘securitize’ its borders against them—thus creating additional profit for those in the business of militarization.

    Moreover, Stop Wapenhandel and TNI found “industry representatives, government officials and military and security personnel meet around the year at conferences, fairs and round tables.”

    The report quotes Nick Vaughan-Williams, international security professor at the University of Warwick, saying: “At these events it is possible to identify a cyclical culture whereby the presentation of new technologies not only responds to, but also enables and drives the formulation of new policies and practices in the field of border security and migration management.”

    And these “special fairs and congresses on border security are relatively new,” the report notes. “They all started within the last decade.”

    “I believe the influence of the military and security industry on the shaping of the [EU’s] border security policy is quite big, especially on the securitization and militarization of these and on the expanding use of surveillance technology and data exchange,” Stop Wapenhandel’s Mark Akkerman told Common Dreams. “Industry efforts include regular interactions with EU’s border institutions (including high ranking officials and politicians), where ideas are discussed that later turn up in new EU policy documents.”

     

    “For example, the industry has been pushing for years to upgrade [EU border agency] Frontex to a cross-European border security agency,” Akkerman added. “The new European Border and Coast Guard Agency the European Commission has proposed, which has a lot more powers (has its own equipment, direct interventions in member states, binding decisions forcing member states to strengthen border security capacities) than Frontex has now, is exactly that.”

     

    “If the establishment of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency proceeds,” the report notes, “this would mean a fundamental shift to an EU-controlled system of border security, with the possibility of bypassing the member states and forcing them to strengthen controls and purchase or upgrade equipment.”

     

    “It is not hard to predict that this will lead refugees to use increasingly dangerous routes, strengthening the business case for traffickers. For the military and security industry, however it means the prospect of more orders from the agency itself and from member states,” the report continues.

    Akkerman pointed out the EU’s stunning dismissal of human rights in this profit-motivated process:

    The human rights of refugees play no real role in this thinking, except for promotional purposes. Both the policy makers and the industry sometimes try to sell the increase in and militarization of border security as a humanitarian effort, in terms of strengthening search and rescue capacities. The EU has repeatedly tried to put all the blame for refugee deaths on traffickers. This has resulted in narrowing its response to ‘taking away the business model of smugglers’, with even more military means to try to accomplish this.

     

    This creates a downward spiral: the greater the controls and the more the repression, the greater the risks refugees are forced to take resulting in more deaths. Experts (academics) and human rights organizations have been warning about this for years, but they have been ignored.

    As death tolls rise and a record number of people are displaced by conflict, it seems that the fear-mongering and profiteering—and devastating human rights abuses—will only continue.

    *  *  *

    Full report below…

    Border Wars Report Web

  • This Is How They Protect Us!

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    The Latest TSA Horror

    “These people think they are God. They think they can do anything they want.”

    A partially blind, partially deaf young woman returning home from treatment for a brain tumor was brutally smashed to the ground by goon tug TSA “security” while her mother, a nurse, was shoved away.

    The goon thugs responsible should get at least 30 years in a maximum security prison for assault with intent to kill. But nothing will happen to them. Their corrupt bosses always cover up for the psychopaths who occupy so many “security” and police positions from which they exercise unaccountable brutality over those of us forced to pay their salaries.

    This is America today. We are forced to pay for our own brutilization by a criminal element that has taken refuge in “security” that “protects us.” We are in far more danger from the security forces allegedly protecting us than we are from terrorists. Indeed, the security forces are the terrorists.

    Remember, during eight years of the Iraq War, US police killed more Americans than the US lost troops in combat. We needed our soldiers at home protecting us from the police, not over there “protecting” us from Iraqis who were not bothering us at all.

    The only way to stop the continuous murder and brutalization of American citizens by “security” is to give the same jail sentences to the psychopaths, who comprise a large percentage of police, as are given to criminals without badges to hide behind. Until this happens, no one is safe, not even a handicapped young women traveling home from a hospital with her mother.

    The same prison sentences should be given to executive branch officials who initiate wars of aggression on the basis of lies and fraud. These officials are criminals, not “world leaders.”

    Read the article from the Guardian and weep for your lost country in which we are far less safe from “our” government than we were under King George. Indeed with Washington’s record of destroying seven countries in 15 years, no one in the world is safe from the government of “the land of liberty.”

    America is now justice-proof. “Security” has so thoroughly inoculated us against justice that justice cannot happen in America. Winning some taxpayer money in a civil lawsuit is not justice. Justice is prison for the goon thug criminals with badges.

  • Some Refugees Are Being Sold For Organs

    While there have been numerous headlines and stories that have come out of the immigrant crisis over the past year and a half, one recent revelation is particularly disturbing.

    Migrants traveling from Africa to Europe who are unable to pay smugglers for their journey are being sold and killed for their organs the Independent reports.

    Nuredein Wehabrebi Atta, a people smuggler who has been sentenced to five years in prison for his involvement in moving migrants, told Italian police that migrants who couldn't pay for journeys across the Mediterranean "were sold for €15,000 to groups, particularly Egyptians, who are equipped for harvesting organs."

    Atta's testimony helped break open a transnational network dedicated to migrant trafficking with Italian police confirming they have detained 38 people suspected of being involved: 25 Eritreans, 12 Ethiopians and one Italian. Interior Minister Angelino Alfano said the group used Rome for its financial transactions hub, and the arrests have dealt a "harsh blow" to the criminal network.

    Atta had been granted witness protection in Italy in exchange for a confession, and an Eritrean man arrested in 2014 had collaborated with authorities in order to provide for the first time a complete picture of the trafficking operations.

    From the Independent

    Palermo police said in a statement that an Eritrean man who was arrested in 2014 collaborated with authorities, providing for the first time "a complete reconstruction of criminal activities" of migrant trafficking involving operations both in North Africa and Italy.

     

    Mr Atta is the first foreigner to be granted witness protection in Italy. He said the shocking number of deaths among migrants attempting to cross the sea is what led him to confess, specifically the death of 360 due to a boat sinking in Lampedusa, though he said he was not involved in the incident.

     

    "The deaths that we were aware of were a small part of it," Mr Atta told police, according to local media. "In Eritrea alone there have been victims in eight out of 10 families."

     

    He said that migrants who can not afford to pay the smugglers are then sold to organ traffickers.

    * * *

    The number of refugees displaced by conflict was estimated to have reached a global total of 65 million, a record high, at the end of 2015. Sadly, much of this crisis (if not all) is driven by countries such as the United States meddling in other people's affairs and creating an even worse situation than was previously the case. Unfortunately, we don't believe this will cease being the case any time soon.

  • In Clinton Case, Obama Administration Nullifies 6 Criminal Laws

    Authored by Eric Zuesse,

    When the Obama Administration, on July 5th, ruled that in regard to Hillary Clinton’s privatized email system while she was Secretary of State, "Our judgment is that no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case” to a grand jury, because “We cannot find a case that would support bringing criminal charges,” they ignored the following six U.S. criminal laws, each of which undeniably describes very well what she did:

    18 U.S. Code § 2232 — Destruction or removal of property to prevent seizure

    (a) Destruction or Removal of Property To Prevent Seizure

    Whoever, before, during, or after any search for or seizure of property by any person authorized to make such search or seizure, knowingly destroys, damages, wastes, disposes of, transfers, or otherwise takes any action, or knowingly attempts to destroy, damage, waste, dispose of, transfer, or otherwise take any action, for the purpose of preventing or impairing the Government’s lawful authority to take such property into its custody or control or to continue holding such property under its lawful custody and control, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 5 years, or both.

    (b) Impairment of In Rem Jurisdiction

    Whoever, knowing that property is subject to the in rem jurisdiction of a United States court for purposes of civil forfeiture under Federal law, knowingly and without authority from that court, destroys, damages, wastes, disposes of, transfers, or otherwise takes any action, or knowingly attempts to destroy, damage, waste, dispose of, transfer, or otherwise take any action, for the purpose of impairing or defeating the court’s continuing in rem jurisdiction over the property, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 5 years, or both.

    18 U.S. Code § 1512 — Tampering with a witness, victim, or an informant

    (c) Whoever corruptly

    (1) alters, destroys, mutilates, or conceals a record, document, or other object, or attempts to do so, with the intent to impair the object’s integrity or availability for use in an official proceeding; or

    (2) otherwise obstructs, influences, or impedes any official proceeding, or attempts to do so,

    shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both.

     

    18 U.S. Code § 1519 — Destruction, alteration, or falsification of records in Federal investigations and bankruptcy

    Whoever knowingly alters, destroys, mutilates, conceals, covers up, falsifies, or makes a false entry in any record, document, or tangible object with the intent to impede, obstruct, or influence the investigation or proper administration of any matter within the jurisdiction of any department or agency of the United States or any case filed under title 11, or in relation to or contemplation of any such matter or case, shall be fined under this title, imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both.

     

    18 U.S. Code § 2071 — Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally

    (a) Whoever willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, or destroys, or attempts to do so, or, with intent to do so takes and carries away any record, proceeding, map, book, paper, document, or other thing, filed or deposited with any clerk or officer of any court of the United States, or in any public office, or with any judicial or public officer of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.

    (b) Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States. As used in this subsection, the term “office” does not include the office held by any person as a retired officer of the Armed Forces of the United States.

     

    18 U.S. Code § 641 — Public money, property or records

    Whoever embezzles, steals, purloins, or knowingly converts to his use, or the use of another, or without authority, sells, conveys or disposes of any record, voucher, money, or thing of value of the United States or of any department or agency thereof, or any property made or being made under contract for the United States or any department or agency thereof, …

    Shall be fined not more than $10,000 or imprisoned not more than ten years or both. …

     

    18 U.S. Code § 793 — Gathering, transmitting or losing defense information …

    (f) Whoever, being entrusted with or having lawful possession or control of any document, writing, code book, signal book, sketch, photograph, photographic negative, blueprint, plan, map, model, instrument, appliance, note, or information, relating to the national defense, (1) through gross negligence permits the same to be removed from its proper place of custody or delivered to anyone in violation of his trust, or to be lost, stolen, abstracted, or destroyed, or (2) having knowledge that the same has been illegally removed from its proper place of custody or delivered to anyone in violation of its trust, or lost, or stolen, abstracted, or destroyed, and fails to make prompt report of such loss, theft, abstraction, or destruction to his superior officer —  

    Shall be fined not more than $10, 000 or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both. (g) If two or more persons conspire to violate any of the foregoing provisions of this section, and one or more of such persons do any act to effect the object of the conspiracy, each of the parties to such conspiracy, shall be subject to the punishment provided for the offense which is the object of such conspiracy.

    Those laws are consequently null and void, by Executive action. When Congress (which is supposed to be the Legislative branch of the government) passed those laws, what were they describing, if not this? Of course, they did describe there what Clinton has, in fact, done.

    If we are a nation “of laws, not of men” (as that old basic description of democracy phrased it), then Ms. Clinton will be prosecuted, at least through the grand jury stage, on (at least) those grounds. The decision regarding her innocence or guilt will be made by jurors (first by the grand jurors, of course, and if they find there to be a case, then by a trial jury), not by the broader public – and also not by the nation’s Executive: the President and his appointed Administration. That is what it means for a government to be a functioning democracy. Any government which violates this principle – that it is “of laws, not of men [including women]” – is not functioning as a democracy: it’s something else.

    In addition to these criminal laws, there are also federal regulations against these matters, but violations merely of federal regulations (such as these) are far less serious than are actions that violate alsofederal criminal laws (such as the six laws that are listed above).

    She isn’t even being sanctioned for the violations the the State Department’s own regulations (or “rules”).

    This is not a partisan issue. I was until recently an active Democrat, and I joined with millions of other Democrats who expressed condemnation when George W. Bush was allowed to get away with many severe crimes (such as this) while he was in office; and one of the reasons why I was trying to find someone to contest against President Obama in Democratic primaries for the 2012 Democratic Presidential nomination was that Obama had refused to prosecute his predecessor’s crimes against this nation. But now this same Obama is nullifying at least these six laws in order to win as his successor Hillary Clinton, who surely will not prosecute Obama for his many crimes (such as this and this) while he has been leading this nation and destroying our democracy.

    I parted company from the Democratic Party when I gave up on both Parties in 2012 as they and the government they operate have been since at least 1980 — not at all democratic, but instead aristocratic: holding some persons to be above the law (that researcher there called the U.S. an “oligarchy,” which is simply another word for the same thing — rule by the top wealth-holders, not by the public: not a “democracy").

    There can be no excuse for Obama’s depriving the public, via a grand jury decision, of the right to determine whether a full court case should be pursued in order to determine in a jury trial whether Hillary Clinton’s email system constituted a crime (or several crimes) under U.S. laws. The Obama Administration’s ‘finding’ that “clearly intentional and willful mishandling of classified information” would need to have been proven, in order for her to have been prosecuted under any U.S. criminal law, is a flagrant lie: none of the above six U.S. criminal laws requires that, but the only way to determine whether even that description (“clearly intentional and willful mishandling of classified information”) also applies to Clinton would be to go through a grand jury (presenting the above-cited six laws) and then to a jury case (to try her on those plus possibly also the charge that there was “clearly intentional and willful mishandling of classified information”). But now, those six laws are effectively gone: anyone who in the future would be charged with violating any one of those six laws could reasonably cite the precedent that Ms. Clinton was not even charged, much less prosecuted, for actions which clearly fit the description provided in each one of those U.S. criminal laws. Anyone in the future who would be charged under any one of these six laws could prove discriminatory enforcement against himself or herself. (In the particular case discussed there, discriminatory enforcement was ruled not to have existed because the enforcement of the criminal law involved was judged to have been random enforcement, but this condition would certainly not apply in Clinton’s case, it was clearly “purposeful discrimination” in her favor, and therefore enforcement of the law against anyone else, where in Clinton’s case she wasn’t even charged — much less prosecuted — for that offense, would certainly constitute discriminatory enforcement.) So: that’s the end of these six criminal laws. The U.S. President effectively nullified those laws, which were duly passed by Congress and signed into law by prior Presidents

    And that’s the end, the clear termination, of a governemnt “of laws, not of men”.

    *  *  *

    Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.

     

  • Time To Take The Fed's Warning Seriously: CMBS Has "Greatest Ever Monthly Delinquency Increase"

    With three UK-based property funds, among them Standard Life, Aviva and M&G, all “freezing” assets in the past 2 days and suspending redemptions over fears of a swoon in UK housing prices, spreading panic shockwaves around the globe that the Brexit dominoes have come home to roost (to mix and match metaphors), it may not be a bad time time to jump across the Atlantic and look at US real-estate and in particular, commercial properties. As CMBS specialist Trepp wrote today in its weekly TreppWire commentary, the “Trepp CMBS delinquency rate moved noticeably higher in June, as the rate was pushed up by loans that reached their maturity date but were not paid off.” It was the fourth straight month that the rate has crept higher following two large decreases in January and February. The delinquency rate for US commercial real estate loans in CMBS is now 4.60%, an increase of 25 basis points from April. 

    This is in line with recent warnings from the Fed which just two weeks ago cautioned not only about another stock bubble when on June 21 it said that “forward price-to-earnings ratios for equities have increased to a level well above their median of the past three decades” but again warned that commercial real estate remains the most troubled sector: “valuation pressures have remained notable in the commercial real estate sector, to which some small banks have substantial exposures.” This includes not just bricks and mortar malls, which are losing bankrupt retail tenants by the hour, but also the collapse in the shale sector.  It also includes a sudden spike in vacant office space.

    Over the weekend, the Fed’s warning was validated not just by Trepp, but also by Morgan Stanley, whose Richard Hill looked at the latest CMBS 2.0 remittance reports and observed that in June, “delinquent loans rose by $142MM, including a potential reps breach.” As Hill puts it, “this delinquency increase was the greatest ever.” The silver lining: so too was the decline in specially serviced and watchlist loans, as near insolvent loans rolled off to delinquent status.

    Here is the key highlight from MS’ summary of newly delinquent loans:

    15 loans totaling $221MM became newly delinquent in June. In total, 71 loans with a balance of $760.6MM were delinquent in June, resulting in a delinquency rate of 32bp. The $142MM month-over-month increase in the volume of delinquent loans was the greatest ever – it eclipses the $116MM increase in March 2016 and compares to an average monthly increase of $40.7MM.


    Some other observations on the state of CMBS 2.0:

    • Specially serviced: There were four loans totaling $43.3MM that were newly transferred to ‘specially serviced’ this month, but the volume of loans declined by the most ever to $1B, resulting in a specially serviced rate of 42bp. There are currently 13 loans totaling $206MM that are delinquent but not specially serviced, including the largest loan to become newly delinquent this month. Looking forward, we expect the two CMBS 2.0 loans totaling $293MM to be imminently transferred to special servicing, given their exposure to JQ Hammons Hotels, which filed for bankruptcy on Sunday.
    • Watchlist: 206 loans totaling $2B were added to the watchlist in June, but the volume of loans declined to $17.5B, resulting in a watchlist rate of 7.37%. The month-over-month decline in balance of specially serviced loans was the greatest ever and compares to a 12-month average increase of $580MM. However, the outstanding balance remains higher than what was observed in February 2016.
    • Appraisal reductions: 21 loans totaling $161MM realized Apprisal Reduction Amounts (ARA) this month. 10 of these loans totaling $62.1M were first-time appraisal reductions while 11 totaling $99.3M were updated appraisals. Seven of the ten loans with first-time ARAs are secured by properties located in ‘oil boom’ regions.
    • Prepayments: 29 loans totaling $456MM paid off in June and, in total, 424 loans with a balance of $9.2B have now been paid off. The largest pay-off this month was the $85MM loan secured by the Keystone Marquee Office Portfolio (DBUBS 2011-LC2A) at its maturity date.
    • Defeasance: 22 loans with a balance of $345.5MM were defeased in June. In total, 291 loans with a balance of $5.8B have now been defeased, of which 213 loans totaling $3.4B remain outstanding. The largest loan to defease this month was the $1655MM loan secured by One South Wacker Drive (WFRBS 2013-C11 WFRBS 2013-C12), which is scheduled to mature on 1/1/2018

    So is it time to start worrying about US commercial real estate? Well, with massive retail and shale bankruptcies, vacant malls around the nation, and rapidly evacuating offices, absolutely. Only in this day and age worrying means buying as much risk assets as one can afford, because the worse things are the greater the likelihood of an imminent bailout: of even a 1% correction in stocks by central banks. Case in point: frontrunning.

    • JAPAN’S 20-YEAR GOVT BOND YIELD FALLS TO ZERO FOR FIRST TIME
    • JAPAN’S 30-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO RECORD 0.03%

    And while we have been joking for the past 7 years that algos will push the S&P to +? in case World War III breaks out (on 1 offerless contract), this is looking increasingly more likely with every passing day. And now that Hillary is assured of being the next president, it just may happen in the not too distant future.

  • Martin Armstrong: "James Comey Had No Problem Keeping Me In Prison Without Any Charges"

    Submitted by Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics.com,

     

    Comey-James FBI-Portrait

    To indict someone, the criteria is supposed to be “intent.” Comey has used that to pretend there is no evidence that Hillary “intentionally” erased anything. Comey also stated that Hillary’s lawyers erased her emails using a keyword search program and they did not “read” the emails. He added that he would not recommend charges against Hillary or her aides.

    “Although we did not find clear evidence that Secretary Clinton or her colleagues intended to violate laws governing the handling of classified information, there is evidence that they were extremely careless in their handling of very sensitive, highly classified information,” Comey declared.

    It was Comey who indicted Frank Quattrone for claiming he instructed his people to erase emails in his technology-industry banking group at Credit Suisse Group’s Credit Suisse First Boston, based upon a single email that read “clean up those files” in December 2000. That was more than enough for his “intent” requirement to obstruct justice. This further illustrates the double standard of justice for them vs. us.

    Comey has said that he could not find anyone else who had been prosecuted for such a thing, but then added after clearing Hillary that this is not to say everyone in the government can do this or that they would not prosecute someone else for the same thing. Comey said,“[O]ur judgment is that no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case.”

    Comey presented a scathing rebuke of Hillary’s conduct that anyone else would have certainly been indicted for. For Obama to have announced in advance he would campaign for Hillary, it was clear that this was a cover-up and he knew the results before today. For Comey to say, “Although we did not find clear evidence [of any intentional misconduct] there is evidence that they were extremely careless of very sensitive, highly classified information.” It is the jury’s role to determine if there is any evidence and the case should have been presented for a Grand Jury to decide if she should have been indicted. That, of course, is off limits as well.

    Comey went on to all but acknowledge that Russia hacked Hillary’s emails:

    “With respect to potential computer intrusion by hostile actors, we did not find direct evidence that Secretary Clinton’s personal e-mail domain, in its various configurations since 2009, was successfully hacked. But, given the nature of the system and of the actors potentially involved, we assess that we would be unlikely to see such direct evidence. We do assess that hostile actors gained access to the private commercial e-mail accounts of people with whom Secretary Clinton was in regular contact from her personal account. We also assess that Secretary Clinton’s use of a personal e-mail domain was both known by a large number of people and readily apparent. She also used her personal e-mail extensively while outside the United States, including sending and receiving work-related e-mails in the territory of sophisticated adversaries. Given that combination of factors, we assess it is possible that hostile actors gained access to Secretary Clinton’s personal e-mail account.”

    For Comey to claim neither the Department of Justice nor the White House knew what he was going to announce, seriously undermines his trustworthiness in this matter. Of course, Obama knew or he would not have scheduled to campaign for Hillary since, if indicted, she would have had to be on bail to stay out of jail to even campaign. This is by no means credible. But nobody would have expected Hillary to be indicted when the Democrats control the executive branch. Had Hillary been indicted, she could not have run for office, for even that statute says such a person would be disqualified for such an office. The entire election would have been a fiasco and the Democratic Party would have collapsed. This is what Bernie was holding out for and why he had his talk with Obama who informed him forget it — there would be no indictment for Hillary.

    “From the group of 30,000 e-mails returned to the State Department, 110 e-mails in 52 e-mail chains have been determined by the owning agency to contain classified information at the time they were sent or received. Eight of those chains contained information that was Top Secret at the time they were sent; 36 chains contained Secret information at the time; and eight contained Confidential information, which is the lowest level of classification. Separate from those, about 2,000 additional e-mails were “up-classified” to make them Confidential; the information in those had not been classified at the time the e-mails were sent,” Comey said.

    Then, Comey contradicted Lynch in making it clear that the final decision was her’s: “As a result, although the Department of Justice makes final decisions on matters like this, we are expressing to Justice our view that no charges are appropriate in this case.”

    TR01072002 - No Criminal Description
     

    James Comey was the chief prosecutor in the Southern District of New York between 2003 and 2005. He had no problem keeping me in Federal Prison on contempt of court without any charges, indictment, or a civil complaint describing any crime whatsoever that they even admitted openly in court. There were never any charges or complaint filed, and they publicly stated, “[T]here is no description of criminal liability.” Yet, Comey allowed me to be held in prison, entirely arbitrarily, with absolutely nothing whatsoever; Comey completely violated my civil rights, those of my family, and all 240 employees. So he is not someone who upholds the Constitution when it goes against government or the banks. As they say, the Department of Justice is really “Just Us” in reality. He has proven that once again.

    HSBC Gag Cover

    Comey also allowed a LIFETIME GAG ORDER on me to prevent me from providing any assistance to my clients in Japan to sue the bankers. Now the State Department has asked for a two-year stay in turning over any of Hillary’s emails. Why  would they do that if there is nothing criminal? This only proves that this is a cover-up, as always, because the Democratic Party cannot allow Hillary to go down for they would lose everything. Sorry, but Comey has a track record of defending the banks even when they stole billions and pleaded criminally guilty before having to pay them back. He kept me in prison on contempt to turn over assets for a “possible” restitution, but when I got into the Supreme Court, I was released and no such charges were ever filed nor did I ever have any restitution. They then tried to prevent “The Forecaster” from being shown in the USA.

    So much for any honesty from the Department of Justice. It is the Department of “Just Us,” as they say.

  • Domino #3: M&G Suspends Trading In $6 Billion UK Property Fund

    Things are getting bad fast in Britain…

    Domino #1: *STANDARD LIFE INV PROPERTY DROPS 15%; TRADING IN FUND SUSPENDED

    In a stark flashback to the catalytic event that ultimately brought down Bear Stearns in 2008, and subsequently unleashed the greatest financial crisis in history, last night we reported that Standard Life, has been forced to stop retail investors selling out of one of the UK’s largest property funds for at least 28 days after rapid cash outflows were sparked by fears over falling real estate values.

     

    As we further noted, citing an analyst, “given the outflows the sector seems to be experiencing, this could well put downward pressure on commercial property prices,” said Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “The risk is this creates a vicious circle, and prompts more investors to dump property, until such time as sentiment stabilises.”

     

    As we concluded, whie Brexit is not a Humpty Dumpty event, where all the Fed’s horses and all the Fed’s men can’t glue the eggshell back together, it is an event that forces investors to wake up and prepare their portfolios for the very real systemic risks ahead. And, indeed, if Standard Life was the first domino, moments ago the second domino also tumbled when as Bloomberg reported that Aviva Investors Property Trust is as of this moment "frozen" citing "extraordinary" market conditions.

    Domino #2: *AVIVA SUSPENDS TRADING ON AVIVA INVESTORS PROPERTY TRUST

    As the FT adds, Aviva Investments said it had prevented retail investors from selling out of its £1.8bn UK Property Trust since Monday afternoon.

     

    Cited by Bloomberg, Aviva said in an email that "market circumstances, which are impacting the wider industry, have resulted in a lack of immediate liquidity" adding that "we have acted to safeguard the interests of all our investors by suspending dealing in the fund with immediate effect…. Suspension of dealing will give Aviva Investors greater control in managing cash flows and conducting orderly asset sales in order to meet our obligations to investors.”

    And now Domino #3: *M&G SUSPENDS TRADING IN M&G PROPERTY PORTFOLIO FUND

    As Bloomberg reports, M&G suspends trading in property portfolio, feeder funds, according to statement on website.

     

    "Investor redemptions in the fund have risen markedly because of the high levels of uncertainty in the U.K. commercial property market since the outcome of the European Union referendum.

     

    Redemptions have now reached a point where M&G believes it can best protect the interests of the funds’ shareholders by seeking a temporary suspension in trading."

    The plunge before the freeze…

     

    As Laith Khalaf, a senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown cited above, put it, “the dominoes are starting to fall in the U.K. commercial property market, as yet another fund locks its doors on the back of outflows precipitated by the Brexit vote. It’s probably only a matter of time before we see other funds follow suit."

    We could not have said it better ourselves.

  • Yahoo Finance Editor-In-Chief Is Sad: "We're Suffering The Consequences Of Too Much Democracy"

    Following James Traub's mind-numbingly-elitist rebuttal of the democratic rights of "we, the people" in favor of allowing "they, the elite" to ensure the average joe doesn't run with scissors, "It's time for the elites to rise up against the ignorant masses."

    The Brexit has laid bare the political schism of our time. It’s not about the left vs. the right; it’s about the sane vs. the mindlessly angry

    The Guardian's David Van Reybrouck appears willing to take the fight for elite survival even further…proclaiming "our voting system worked well for decades, but now it is broken. There is a better way to give voice to the people…. you do not ask everyone to vote on an issue few people really understand, but you draft a random sample of the population and make sure they come to the grips with the subject matter in order to take a sensible decision. A cross-section of society that is informed can act more coherently than an entire society that is uninformed."

    Brexit is a turning point in the history of western democracy. Never before has such a drastic decision been taken through so primitive a procedure – a one-round referendum based on a simple majority. Never before has the fate of a country – of an entire continent, in fact – been changed by the single swing of such a blunt axe, wielded by disenchanted and poorly informed citizens.

    But this is just the latest in a series of worrying blows to the health of democracy, and Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief, Andy Serwer took to his Tumblr, to explain why, in his opinion, Democracy, you could argue, is pretty much like sunshine, cold beer and ice cream. They’re all great —until you have too much.

    Too much democracy? That’s not possible, is it?

    In fact it may be. Some economists and political scientists are suggesting as much in the wake of the Brexit vote and the subsequent wave of “Leave the EU” sentiment that’s sweeping across Europe. And you can look to a big honking use case right here in the US to make that argument.

    It’s way too early to tell how Brexit will affect the economy of the UK at this point — although early days have been rocky enough with the crashing pound, stumbling stock market, and political chaos. But I would argue the biggest negative of Brexit will be the messiness and uncertainty that ensues. The UK will be forced to rewrite tax rules, as well as draft and implement new legislation. It will have to craft a new relationship with Europe. And the UK will more than likely haggle over referendums in Scotland and Northern Ireland. An OECD report says Brexit could cost the UK 3.3% of its GDP by 2020.

    Despite those headaches and risks, “Leavers” across Europe — including those in France, the Netherlands, Italy, Hungary, Austria and Finland— have taken up the call. A Citibank note says “… political risks in Europe are high and probably rising, in our view, and ‘referendum risk’ contributes significantly to these risks …” Those risks include outright withdrawal from the EU, scuttling of EU policies, and shying away from EU-centric policies that could bolster local economies. Citi notes that Italy and Hungary will likely both have referendums on matters pertaining to the EU this year.

    So what does this have to do with the US, besides the collateral damage of a potentially basket-case Europe — (no small thing that, by the way)? Because while referendums are actually rare in the UK, (the Brexit vote is only the third to cover the whole UK), they are much more common in the US.

    Twenty-six states — mostly Western ones — plus Washington, D.C., allow for initiatives and referendums. And over the years, there have been various successes and failures, never mind wackiness. (One of my favorites was the 2006 Arizona Voter Reward Act which would give a single Arizona citizen $1 million in every general election. It was defeated.) But other ballot initiatives of course are more serious, and in some states referendums and such have had real teeth, nowhere more so than in California, where they have been elevated to a powerful form of governance, with high-profile propositions.

    For those of you old enough to remember, the watershed moment of the California Proposition movement was 1978 with the passage of Proposition 13, which capped real estate taxes. (Remember Howard Jarvis — the leader of the movement — on the cover of Time Magazine: Tax Revolt!)

    The success of that vote ushered in a golden age of referendums for the Golden State, although that may be a mischaracterization. Since then the state has voted on hundreds of referendums on gun control, abortion, marijuana and the death penalty. But mostly the initiatives have tended towards the fiscal: i.e., taxes, budgets and bond issues. To some this has been a shining era of democracy. Others are not so sanguine, saying Prop. 13, for example, helped lead to the gutting of education budgets.

    One thing that is undoubtedly true is that this so-called direct democracy model has made governing more difficult. The Economist delved into this in great length in a 2011 special report:

    “This citizen legislature has caused chaos. Many initiatives have either limited taxes or mandated spending, making it even harder to balance the budget. Some are so ill-thought-out that they achieve the opposite of their intent: for all its small-government pretensions, Proposition 13 ended up centralizing California’s finances, shifting them from local to state government. Rather than being the curb on elites that they were supposed to be, ballot initiatives have become a tool of special interests, with lobbyists and extremists bankrolling laws that are often bewildering in their complexity and obscure in their ramifications. And they have impoverished the state’s representative government. Who would want to sit in a legislature where 70-90% of the budget has already been allocated?”

    The best evidence of the effects of this dysfunction perhaps is that during this period, California experienced a precipitous decline in its credit rating. In 1980, California had an AAA rating. By the early 1990s it had fallen to single A, and it bounced around that level for decades until as recently as 2014, when it was the second-lowest rated state in the nation. (This is a state, of course, with Silicon Valley, Hollywood, oil and gas, timber, minerals and the richest farmland in the nation.) Say what you will about Jerry Brown (twice!), Arnold Schwarzenegger and Pete Wilson, but it ain’t all the governors’ fault. In fact it may be Jerry Brown’s multiterm experience with government by referendum that has allowed him get a handle on the state’s finances and help boost its credit rating back up to AA (from S&P), its highest rating since 2001. But that’s hardly consolation.

    Direct democracy does have a shining example of efficacy, and that is Switzerland, though there certainly are reasons particular to that country — homogeneity being one — that explain why it has worked there.

    Otherwise, I would argue that direct democracy is best used sparingly, for local initiatives perhaps. A big drawback of direct democracy is that those who want change — no matter its validity — are much more fired up than those who want to maintain the status quo, and therefore many more of the “Changers” go to the polls, as was perhaps the case in the Brexit vote. Think about the consequences of that.

    I know it sounds horribly anachronistic, but checks and balances, branches of government, and slow, messy and deliberate governance actually have their place. It is true that both in the case of Britain’s relationship with the EU and with real estate taxes in California in the 1970s, real change was needed. In cases like this, and probably just in general, politicians need to step up more briskly than they are typically comfortable doing. But putting the onus all back on the people may not be the answer. One thing’s for sure, it certainly has its consequences.

  • Chinageddon – Gold Spikes As USDJPY, Yuan, Bond Yields Plunge

    For the first time since March 2014, Gold is back above $1370, spiking higher as China opens. While silver has been celebrating way above Brexit spike highs, gold's initial reaction was far bigger and that spike high has now been taken out.

     

    Across Asia things are moving fast. Bond yields in Taiwan are breaking to record lows, JGBs are at fresh record lows with 20Y yields reaching zero for the first time…

    • *JAPAN'S 30-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO RECORD 0.015%
    • *JAPAN'S 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO RECORD MINUS 0.27%
    • *TAIWAN 10-YEAR GOVT BOND YIELD FALLS TO RECORD-LOW 0.695%

     

    And USDJPY plunged to a 100 handle again

     

    And then China devalued The Yuan fix significantly…to the weakest agaionst the USD since Nov 2010

     

    Which is rippling through to US Equity futures… Dow -230 from earlier highs..

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Today’s News 5th July 2016

  • From Monica To Loretta – The Clintons Corrupt Absolutely

    Authored by Michael Goodwin, originaly posted at The New York Post,

    She can’t help herself. Even yesterday, with the political world fixated on her meeting with FBI agents, Hillary Clinton had her flack mislead the public.

    A spokesman said she gave a “voluntary” interview, which is true only because she agreed to talk instead of waiting to be subpoenaed. The flack also said she was “pleased” to assist the gumshoes.

    Who believes she was “pleased” to be interviewed by the FBI in a criminal investigation that could upend her life?

    But that’s the way the Clintons roll.

    Wherever they go, whatever they do, ethics are trashed and suspicions of criminal conduct follow them like night follows day.

    It’s who they are and it’s self-delusional to believe another stint in the White House would make the Clintons better people. Power exacerbates rather than cures an absence of integrity.

    Yet there’s another dimension to their chronic crookedness, and it gets insufficient attention even though it might be more important to the nation’s well-being.

    It is that, in addition to being personally corrupt, the Clintons are corrupters. They are piggish users, with the people and institutions around them inevitably tarnished and sometimes destroyed even as the Clintons escape to their next scam.

    Monica Lewinsky is a prime example, and Loretta Lynch is the latest. The attorney general’s dumbfounding decision to meet privately with Bill Clinton while the FBI investigates Hillary’s handling of national secrets stained Lynch’s reputation and added to public mistrust of the Justice Department.

    Lynch didn’t create that mistrust — she was supposed to be the antidote. Her predecessor, Eric Holder, was a left-wing activist who used his role as the nation’s chief law-enforcement officer to further his and Obama’s political agenda.

    That role earned Holder an undesired distinction. His refusal to cooperate with Congress on the disastrous Fast and Furious gun sting led to a bipartisan vote in the House holding him in criminal contempt, the first time in history a sitting Cabinet member ever faced such a censure.

    Lynch, as his successor, was handily confirmed by the Republican-controlled Senate, with her steady, firm demeanor and solid record as a prosecutor carrying the day.

    Yet her lifetime of good work and the hope for a fresh start at Justice are now overshadowed. She acknowledges the meeting with Bill Clinton was a mistake, and pledged to accept the recommendation of FBI agents and career prosecutors on whether Hillary should face charges.

    That’s not enough, not nearly enough, given the circumstances and stakes.

    While Lynch offers no explanation as to why in the world she agreed to the 30-minute meeting on a plane in Phoenix, perhaps she felt she owed the former president something. Remember, he first nominated her to be the US attorney in Brooklyn in 1999, a promotion that changed her life.

    After his presidency, she went to a top private law firm, and became a member of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Bill Clinton had been very, very good to her, and without his boost, she probably wouldn’t even have been a candidate to replace Holder.

    And now her patron wanted a private meeting. Both had to know it was wrong, but he had nothing to lose and didn’t care about her reputation or the Justice Department’s.

    That was her responsibility. And it doesn’t really matter if they didn’t discuss the case. Just his being there was reminder enough that she owes him.

    Lynch also had to know that an FBI agent who socialized with the spouse of a suspect in a criminal case probably would be investigated and fired. Yet she agreed to the meeting anyway.

    Despite Lynch’s vow to let others make the call, her refusal to recuse herself means she will remain in charge. That was never ideal because Obama endorsed Hillary and all but exonerated her, but there seemed no way to argue for a special prosecutor without more evidence that the outcome was rigged. There was also FBI Director James Comey’s reputation as an independent straight shooter to provide some reassurance that the case would be handled on the merits.

    Now Lynch has broken that fragile confidence, and the need for a special prosecutor is obvious.

    The explosive result shows the Clintons haven’t lost their touch for leaving destruction and chaos in their wake. The remarkable events also serve as a clear reminder that while the Clintons enriched themselves over the years, they were helping to bankrupt the public trust in its government and institutions. And they won’t stop until they’re stopped.

  • Istanbul Turns Into A Ghost Town As Tourism Collapses

    In the aftermath of the tragic suicide bomber attacks at Istanbul's Ataturk Airport, Turkey's biggest city now feels like a ghost town.

    Restaurants sit empty in the Sultanahmet tourist district, and five-star hotel rooms can be booked for bargain prices. As AFP reports, in better times, the queues outside the Hagia Sophia (a former mosque and church that is now a museum) might have stretched an hour or longer at this time of year, today you can walk straight in and share the place with just a smattering of other visitors.

    "It's disastrous. All my life I've been a tour guide, most of us have come to a turning point where we don't know if we can go on. It's tragic." said Orhan Sonmez, hopelessly offering tours of the Hagia Sophia.

    Analysts say the attack on Istanbul's airport may have been a deliberate attempt to weaken the Turkish state by hitting its tourist industry, and it appears to be working. The United States, Germany and several other countries have warned their nationals against threats in Turkey, and to make matters worse, the TAK, a radical Kurdish group that has carried out several attacks in Turkey this year has also warned foreign tourists to stay away.

    This development comes at a time when Turkey had just suffered its worst drop-off in visits in 22 years in the month of May, which was down 35% from a year ago. The tourism industry, which according to AFP brings in over $33 billion a year, is now in a free fall.

    Part of the downturn was driven by a Russian ban on Turkish package holidays, but the ban has since been lifted, providing at least a small relief for the industry.

    Those that are still visiting say they are enjoying the peace and quiet, while taking a more philosophical approach as AFP puts it. "This could happen in any city, it's an unlucky lottery. The people are really friendly, and I really think I'll come back and spend some more time here." said Nessa Feehan, a visitor for Ireland.

    However, the situation is still dire for many who depend on tourism to make a living.

    "If it goes on like this, many shops will close. I'm thinking of moving to America, I can't make money here." said Ismail Celebi, an owner of a jewellery shop. Even though large Chinese tour groups are still arriving, Celebi says "It's not enough, we need Americans, we need Europeans."

    "Even I'm afraid to come to work here" Celebi went on to say.

    * * *

    These recent security concerns as well as the economic hits that Turkey has endured as a result of the attacks and overall tension in the region are key factors in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's pivot to a softer approach in an attempt to strengthen diplomatic ties. As we reported last week, Erdogan even apologized to Vladimir Putin for the death of a Russian pilot, and even called Russia a "friend and a strategic partner."

  • "China Is Headed For A 1929-Style Depression"

    Authored by Sue Chang via MarketWatch.com,

    Andy Xie isn’t known for tepid opinions.

    The provocative Xie, who was a top economist at the World Bank and Morgan Stanley, found notoriety a decade ago when he left the Wall Street bank after a controversial internal report went public. Today, he is among the loudest voices warning of an inevitable implosion in China, the world’s second-largest economy.

    Xie, now working independently and based in Shanghai, says the coming collapse won’t be like the Asian currency crisis of 1997 or the U.S. financial meltdown of 2008.

    In a recent interview with MarketWatch, Xie said China’s trajectory instead resembles the one that led to the Great Depression, when the expansion of credit, loose monetary policy and a widespread belief that asset prices would never fall contributed to rampant speculation that ended with a crippling market crash.

     

    China in 2016 looks much the same, according to Xie, with half of the country’s debt propping up real-estate prices and heavy leverage in the stock market — indicating that conditions are ripe for a correction.

    “The government is allowing speculation by providing cheap financing,” Xie told MarketWatch. China “is riding a tiger and is terrified of a crash. So it keeps pumping cash into the economy. It is difficult to see how China can avoid a crisis.”

    A longtime critic of Chinese economic growth

    Xie’s viewpoints have at times attracted unwelcome attention. In 2006, when he was a star Asia economist at Morgan Stanley, a leaked email to colleagues in which he said money laundering was bolstering growth in Singapore led to his abrupt departure from the bank.

    In early 2007, he termed China’s surging markets a “bubble” that could lead to a banking crisis,” and in 2009 he likened them to a “Ponzi scheme.”

    Xie, who is from China but was educated at — and earned a Ph.D. from — Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has said Chinese authorities have tried to characterize him as an American spy sent to disrupt their markets after his 2007 prediction. China’s consulate general in San Francisco and its embassy in Washington did not reply to requests for comment.

    While he now works independently, Xie’s opinions on Asian affairs remain influential. He writes regularly for the South China Morning Post, among other publications, in May saying China is running a “gigantic monetary bubble that has corrupted virtually every corner of the economy.”

    Xie “is a respected economist,” said Huawei Ling, managing editor of Caixin Weekly and a John S. Knight Journalism Fellow at Stanford University. “I appreciate his consistency and his analysis on China’s economic issues,” she said.

    His 2007 forecast, meanwhile, turned out correct. Soon after his prediction, the Shanghai Composite Index started plunging. After hitting a peak of 6,092 on Oct. 19, 2007, it fell below 2,000 over the next 12 months.

    Years before hedge-fund managers like Kynikos Associates founder Jim Chanos turned bearish and George Soros predicted a hard landing, Xie was a dissenting voice amid a chorus of prognosticators enamored with China’s late 20th Century emergence from poverty.

    In an interview with this reporter more than a decade ago, Xie warned of a lack of depth in China’s dazzling rise, saying the rapid growth on the country’s coastal cities masked the fact that many inner areas of the country were stuck in the “Stone Age.”

    Concerns about China’s economy are more commonplace now. Two camps have formed in 2016: those like Templeton Emerging Markets Group Executive Chairman Mark Mobius, who believe a resilient China is experiencing temporary growing pains, and those who, like Soros, foresee an imminent collapse.

    Xie is firmly in the latter camp.

    “China grew too fast,” Xie said. “The government is using its power to stop the unraveling but not address the issue. It is just buying more time.”

    Fresh worries about China after the Brexit vote

    Xie’s criticism coincides with fresh worries about China after the U.K.’s vote to quit the European Union, which triggered an across-the-board selloff in risky assets as investors sought cover in safe-haven assets. Global markets have rebounded somewhat, but uncertainty remains.

    Subsequent strength in the U.S. dollar has prompted analysts to predict an accelerated weakness in the Chinese yuan. The yuan slumped to a nearly six-year low against the greenback this week, according to FactSet.

    More broadly, fissures have started to appear in the world’s second largest economy. After years of expanding at a blistering pace. China’s gross domestic product grew 6.9% in 2015, its slowest pace in a quarter-century.

    For 2016, Beijing has set a GDP target of 6.5% to 7%; The latest spate of global uncertainties prompted Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Deutsche Bank to trim their forecasts to 6.4% and 6.6%, respectively.

    The export sector, long a driver of Chinese growth, is sputtering due to global saturation and household consumption is barely 30% of China’s GDP, Xie said. In the U.S., household consumption accounted for more than 68% of GDP in 2014, according to the World Bank.

    China’s stock market last year dove in June, losing more than 30% in a month as regulators tightened margin-trading and short selling rules, making it more difficult for investors to borrow money to invest in stocks. A belief that the government was not properly responding to the economic slowdown also weighed on sentiment.

    Then in August, authorities unexpectedly devalued the yuan in a bid to support the flagging economy, sparking unprecedented capital flight.

    Xie and other observers say the surest way to get China out of its rut is to boost consumption, marking a deliberate turn away from a manufacturing-focused economy. Efforts are under way to move China in that direction, but analysts say the process could take years or even decades — during which China could reach a breaking point.

    Total social financing, a broad measure of funds secured by households and nonfinancial companies, topped $22 trillion in March, more than twice China’s $10.4 trillion GDP, according to official data.

    There’s no equivalent metric in the U.S., but household debt stood at $14.3 trillion while nonfinancial debt totaled $13 trillion at the end of the first quarter, according to the Federal Reserve. The combined tally of $27.3 trillion is roughly 1.5 times the U.S. GDP.

    Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank said in May that China’s credit bubble is worse than the U.S. subprime buildup that led to the last financial crisis. “It is clear that in China in recent years more and more capital has been misallocated and not resulted in higher GDP growth,” said Slok.

    Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management, who was among the few on Wall Street to correctly predict the subprime mortgage crisis, shorted the Chinese yuan earlier this year, warning investors in a 13-page February letter that China is making the same mistakes the U.S. did 10 years ago.

    “The unwavering faith that the Chinese will somehow be able to successfully avoid anything more severe than a moderate economic slowdown by continuing to rely on the perpetual expansion of credit reminds us of the belief in 2006 that U.S. home prices would never decline,” Bass wrote.

    Xie, meanwhile, says he is doubtful of the Communist’s Party’s ability to manage and grow China’s economy — but believes that, if they become more hands-off, the country could become the world’s leading economic force. At the core of Xie’s concerns about China is the contention that the government is doing more harm than good.

    “If government takes a step back instead of dominating the economy so much, China can be twice as big as the U.S. in 20 years,” he said.

    ‘The Communist Party isn't compatible with the future of China’

    Today’s regime in China recalls the U.S.-backed Chinese National Party, or Kuomintang, that ruled the country until its defeat at the hands of the Communist rebels in 1949, according to Xie.

    The Nationalists, he says, flooded the economy with easy money to support speculation that led to runaway inflation. That, in turn, shifted public sentiment in favor of the Communists, who drove the Nationalists out of the country.

    “It was very similar to what is going on right now,” said Xie. “If you keep on printing money to use for speculation, you will have hyperinflation and a currency crash,” he said. “The Communist Party isn't compatible with the future of China.”

    Xie’s criticism of the government hasn't resulted in his arrest although he was not certain whether that will not change in the future. Chinese officials have started to muzzle analysts and journalists who have published pessimistic reports on the economy, The Wall Street Journal has reported.

    And his research reports are not currently distributed in China. “There are safety mechanisms to stop someone like me reaching the ordinary people,” said Xie.

    Despite his frustration, however, he occasionally belies immense pride in his country and bemoans the fact that the global community may be underestimating China’s potential.

    “The economists in the West who say that China isn't very important are wrong,” he said. “China isn't an emerging economy. It is the only country that caught up with the West, and it will shape the path of the global economy in the future.”

  • War Of Words Erupts As Italy's PM Slams Mario Draghi: "You Could Have Done More To Help Italian Banks"

    Italy’s Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, is getting desperate, and with good reason.

    As we reported this morning, the rally in European stocks fizzled and Italian banks tumbled after Italy’s 3rd largest (and the world’s oldest) bank, Monte Paschi cratered after it confirmed receipt of a letter from the ECB which had asked the troubled lender to cut its bad debts by 40% within three years,  or to €14.6 billion 2018 from €24.2 billion at the end of 2015.

    And since there are no natural buyers for these NPLs (at least not at the prices demanded by the insolvent bank), the ECB has effectively heaped even more pressure on Rome to stabilize its banking system at a time when Rome itself was hoping that Europe would help bail out its banks. This means that instead of being allowed to inject public – or rather European – funds into its banks while bypassing the much dreaded bail-in which could result in a panicked bank run as depositors scramble to avoid haicuts, Italian banks may have no choice but to dilute themselves to death, hence today’s abysmal price action which saw Monte Paschi’s stock price drop to an all time low.

    All of this appears to have been too much for Renzi, and Italy’s troubled premier, who  as Citi wrote over the weekend is now facing a very shaky future as a result of the upcoming October constitutional referendum…

     

    … has lashed out at Mario Draghi, the very man who was supposed to be on Renzi’s side and protect him from the animosity of Merkel et al, in what Reuters dubs a very rare instance of public criticism.

    As Reuters reports, Matteo Renzi criticized European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi for not having done more to resolve Italy’s banking woes when he held a key Treasury job in Rome in the 1990s.

    After taking power in 2014, Renzi’s government introduced reforms aimed at strengthening the country’s cooperative banks, but several are struggling to stay afloat and a bailout fund took control of Veneto Banca last week after the ECB said it had to raise capital or close.

     

    “If the measures concerning the cooperatives had not been taken by us but by the centre-left government that first put them forward, but was not strong enough to enact them in 1998 … then we would not have this problem,” Renzi said.

     

    The prime minister said that Draghi was director general of the Treasury at that time, with Carlo Azeglio Ciampi serving as economy minister.

    But the punchline, and the most damning quote was Renzi’s unexpected outburst saying that “if people had the strength and intelligence to keep politics out of the banking system a bit before we did it … we would not have had cases like Monte dei Paschi di Siena,” Renzi told a meeting of his centre-left Democratic Party (PD).

    In short, just as we explained last week, a failure by any one major Italian bank, or the entire banking system, will be seen not so much as a failure of Renzi, but of Draghi, who not only had a key role in Italy’s Treasury, but between 2005 and 2011 was head of the Bank of Italy, making the financial plight of Italy’s banks from bad to worse.

    Meanwhile, Monte dei Paschi has been in crisis mode for years, hit by a disastrous acquisition on the eve of the financial crisis, losses from risky derivatives trades and bad debts accumulated during Italy’s worst recession since the Second World War. And, as many suspect, somewhere in there are Draghi’s fingerprints all over the events that have doomed the bank. As such its failure would only accelerate the discovery of the fact that highlight it was Draghi’s failure all along to fix Italy’s banking sector, whose insolvency has ironically been re-exposed in the aftermath of Brexit – an event Renzi had hoped to use as a scapegoat for more bailouts yet which backfire massively after Merkel said “nein.”

    Then again, Merkel’s position on the matter has been clear all along. What we are far more interested in is how the sudden scandal between Renzi and Draghi will play out, and whether in the coming days we may not all witness the modern version of the “Night of the Long Knives.” The only question is who will go down and just who will have oredered said night…

  • Three Charts Show How Precious Brexit Is for Gold and Silver

    Gold and silver have been the standout winners in the fallout from Britain’s decision to leave the European Union according to Bloomberg. They have compiled three charts showing how “precious” Brexit is for gold and silver.

    Brexit_gold_silver

    Investors seeking a haven from volatile currencies and equities pushed prices of the metals to a two-year high. With central banks pledging more stimulus to prop up markets (the Bank of England may cut interest rates within months and traders have reduced odds on the Federal Reserve raising rates), the appeal of owning non-yielding assets like precious metals has increased.

    Gold has climbed 6.2 percent and silver 11 percent since the June 23 referendum, outperforming global stocks, bonds and currencies, including those also often bought as a haven.

    “Macroeconomic risk and geopolitical risk were already setting gold and silver up for a good year – the Brexit fall out has just been the icing on the cake,” said Mark O’Byrne, a director at brokerage GoldCore Ltd. in Dublin. “These metals will continue to outperform as market conditions remain unstable.”

    See full article here

    7RealRisksBanner

     

    Gold and Silver News
    Gold Climbs 1.3% on Week and Silver Soars 10.1% (Coin News)
    Gold inches up, silver passes $20 threshold at near 2-yr highs (Reuters)
    Gold Posts Longest Run of Gains in Two Years on Stimulus Bets (Bloomberg)
    Silver scores biggest weekly jump in almost 3 years (DJ Marketwatch)
    Gold heads for fifth week of gains and silver soars (Reuters)

    Best And Worst Performing Assets In June And Q2 (Zerohedge)
    How the UK’s vote affected Irish shares, sterling, bond prices and safe-haven gold (Irish Times)
    Precious Metal Pandemonium – Silver Spikes Limit-Up, Gold Surges As China FX Basket Hits Record Low (Zerohedge)
    500 Tons of Gold That Show Global Rise in Investor Angst (Bloomberg)
    Read More Here

    Gold Prices (LBMA AM)
    04 July: USD 1,348.75, EUR 1,213.07 & GBP 1,016.42 per ounce
    01 July: USD 1,331.75, EUR 1,199.51 & GBP 1,001.34 per ounce
    30 June: USD 1,317.00, EUR 1,183.59 & GBP 976.82 per ounce
    29 June: USD 1,318.00, EUR 1,191.64 & GBP 984.36 per ounce
    28 June: USD 1,312.00, EUR 1,185.79 & GBP 985.84 per ounce
    27 June: USD 1,324.60, EUR 1,200.49 & GBP 996.36 per ounce
    24 June: USD 1,313.85, EUR 1,181.28 & GBP 945.58 per ounce

    Silver Prices (LBMA)
    04 July: USD 20.36, EUR 18.31 & GBP 15.36 per ounce
    01 July: USD 19.24, EUR 17.29 & GBP 14.48 per ounce
    30 June: USD 18.36, EUR 16.48 & GBP 13.61 per ounce
    29 June: USD 18.21, EUR 16.42 & GBP 13.55 per ounce
    28 June: USD 17.57, EUR 15.84 & GBP 13.17 per ounce
    27 June: USD 17.70, EUR 16.06 & GBP 13.40 per ounce
    24 June: USD 18.04, EUR 16.32 & GBP 13.18 per ounce

    Recent Market Updates
    – BREXIT Day – Markets Becalmed – Gold Panic Prelude – Trading Hours
    – Gold Lower Despite “Panic” Due To “Supply Issues” In Inter Bank Gold Market
    – Gold Slips Despite UK Gold Demand Surging – Investors “Seek Stability”
    – Gold Prices Surge to Highest in Nearly Two Years On FED and Brexit Haven Demand
    – Gold Bullion Has Little Downside, Brexit Or Not, Says HSBC
    – Central Bank of Ireland Warns Risks are Debt, Brexit, Geopolitical Tensions and Migration
    – Gold In Euros Surges 6.5% In June and 17% YTD On BREXIT Concerns
    – Soros Buying Gold On BREXIT, EU “Collapse” Risk
    – UK Gold Demand Rises On BREXIT “Nerves”
    – Pensions Timebomb in “Slow Motion Detonation” In UK, EU, U.S.
    – Silver – Perfect Storm Brewing in the Market
    – Martin Wolf: There Will Be Another “Huge” Financial Crisis

  • Not Even Death Will Help You With Student Loans

    Student loans are incredibly difficult to discharge, even through bankruptcy, this is widely known. However in New Jersey, it appears as though student loans are still expected to be paid, even if someone gets cancer or even dies.

    This is something that Marcia DeOliveira-Longinetti learned when trying to close out a list of things to take care of after her son's unsolved murder last year. When Marcia called about federal loans that her son had taken out for college, an administrator offered condolences and assured her that the balance would be written off. However, the New Jersey Higher Education Student Assistance Authority gave a quite a different response.

    "Please accept our condolences on your loss. After careful consideration of the information you provided, the authority has determined that your request does not meet the threshold for loan forgiveness. Monthly bill statements will continue to be sent to you." a letter from the agency read.

    Of course Marcia was shocked, and even though she co-signed the loans was left confused. However, as a joint investigation by ProPublica and the New York Times discovered, this was not an isolated case.

    According to the NYT, New Jersey's loans, which total $1.9 billion, come with extraordinarily stringent rules that can lead to financial ruin.

    As the NYT explains

    New Jersey’s loans, which currently total $1.9 billion, are unlike those of any other government lending program for students in the country. They come with extraordinarily stringent rules that can easily lead to financial ruin. Repayments cannot be adjusted based on income, and borrowers who are unemployed or facing other financial hardships are given few breaks.

     

    The loans also carry higher interest rates than similar federal programs. Most significant, New Jersey’s loans come with a cudgel that even the most predatory for-profit players cannot wield: the power of the state. New Jersey can garnish wages, rescind state income tax refunds, revoke professional licenses, even take away lottery winnings — all without having to get court approval.

     

    It’s state-sanctioned loan-sharking,” Daniel Frischberg, a bankruptcy lawyer, said. “The New Jersey program is set up so that you fail.

     

    The authority, which boasts in brochures that its “singular focus has always been to benefit the students we serve,” has become even more aggressive in recent years. Interviews with dozens of borrowers, who were among the tens of thousands who have turned to the program, show how the loans have unraveled lives.

     

    The program’s regulations have destroyed families’ credit and forced them to forfeit their salaries. One college graduate declared bankruptcy at age 26 after struggling to repay his debt. The agency filed four simultaneous lawsuits against a 31-year-old paralegal after she fell behind on her payments.

    Chris Gonzalez is another example of how strict the state is. Gonzalez got non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and was eventually laid off by Goldman Sachs (after three years of cancer treatments – nice bunch over there). While the federal government allowed him to suspend his payments because of hardship, New Jersey sued him, seeking $266,000 in payments, and seized a state tax refund he was owed.

    One reason that is given for the tactics is that that the state depends on Wall Street investors to finance student loans through tax-exempt bonds, and the state needs to satisfy those investors by keeping the loans to a minimum. Also, loan revenues cover about half the agency's administrative budget. Governor Chris Christie declined to respond to questions, but Christie appointed its executive director Gabrielle Charette, and Christie also has the power to appoint at least 12 of the agency's 18 board members, and can veto any action taken by the board.

    Marcia DeOliveira-Longinetti continues to pay on her son's loans, having made 18 payments to New Jersey in the amount of $180 a month, with about 92 payments to go. "We're not going to be poor because of this, but every time I have to pay this thing, I think in my head, this is so unfair." Marcia said.

    As the NYT explains, for decades states served as middlemen for federal student loans, but in 2010 Congress and the Obama administration effectively eliminated the role of state agencies by having only the federal government lend directly to students. Some states decided to downsize and transfer their federal loan portfolios, but New Jersey went a different direction.

    For decades, states served as middlemen for federal student loans. Most of the loans were made by banks and were handled and backed by regional and state-based agencies as well as by the federal government. The arrangement was unwieldy, expensive and marked by scandal.

     

    After Pennsylvania’s student loan agency lost a public records lawsuit in 2007, documents revealed that the agency had spent nearly $1 million on things like fly-fishing, facials and falconry lessons.

     

    That same year, New Jersey’s agency was caught in what amounted to a kickback scheme. The state attorney general found that the agency had improperly pushed one company’s loans in exchange for annual payments of $2.2 million. A subsequent investigation by the state’s inspector general found that the agency was in “disarray.”

     

    In 2010, Congress and the Obama administration decided to effectively eliminate the role of state agencies by having only the federal government lend directly to students.

     

    Some states, like California, decided to downsize and transferred their federal loan portfolios. Others, such as Pennsylvania, won contracts from the federal government to service debt from the federal loan program.

     

    New Jersey chose a different path. In the years leading up to the end of the federal program, New Jersey sharply expanded its loan program, slowly replacing the federal loans it once handled with state loans. From 2005 to 2010, loans from the agency nearly tripled, to $343 million per year. Since then, the agency has reduced its loans by half, but its outstanding portfolio has remained roughly the same, about $2 billion.

     

    Ms. Karrow said the growth of New Jersey’s program was simply a result of both the increasing number of students and the rising cost of tuition. But in fact, college enrollment and tuition have not grown as rapidly as the program’s size.

    In contrast to New Jersey, Massachusetts, which is the next largest program with $1.3 billion in outstanding loans, automatically cancels debt if a borrower dies or becomes disabled, something many other states do also according to the NYT.

    New Jersey's solution to the problem is to encourage students to buy life insurance in case they die to help co-signers repay. How very nice of them.

    When consumer lawyers protested the program's onerous conditions at a 2014 agency meeting, the agency said that giving borrowers a break would make the bonds sold to finance loans "less attractive to the ratings agencies and investors." Which according to Moody's is an accurate assessment, as Moody's cited the authority's "administrative wage garnishing, which it uses aggressively for significantly higher collections" compared with other programs.

    * * *

    "I felt so comfortable because it was the State of New Jersey. It's the state, my government, trying to help me out and achieve my American dream. It turns out they were the worst ones" Gonzalez said. Indeed, when Wall Street is a key source of funding and the bond issuer dares not push back, apparently death nor cancer can't get you out of your student loan payment.

    Read the full article here.

  • "All Out Of Gummy Bears" – Marijuana Store Survey & Industry Outlook Q2 2016

    Via ConvergEx's Nick Colas,

    This report marks the 2-year anniversary of our quarterly survey on the legal recreational marijuana market in Colorado. We’ve picked up a couple more states since then, now covering prices and business developments in Washington and Oregon. We survey numerous stores’ managers to track how a new market matures and how its cost structure and product mix evolves. Each state reported downward pressure in pricing, but has seen it steady over the past couple of months. An eighth of retail cannabis in Colorado sells for an average range of $25 to $45, but our contacts said they are running more sales of $25 eighths during the week and $20 on the weekends. In Washington, we reported the price of a gram dropped to $10 three months ago; some contacts said it’s now as low as $8. A gram sells for about $10 to $15 in Oregon as well.

     

    Foot traffic is starting to pick up as we carry forward into summer, as the industry benefits from tourism. As for sales, Colorado stores brought in $69.4 million during April, setting a monthly record; sales total $242 million this year thru April. Washington stores garnered $229.6 million in revenue, and Oregon stores have sold nearly $60 million. Expect Oregon’s figure to jump in the months ahead, as stores can now sell edibles/concentrates/extracts as of this month.

     

    Bottom line, Colorado and Washington posted double digit growth in sales relative to 2015 every month of this year. Make no mistake, this is a fast growing industry with massive upside potential with as many as nine states possibly voting on marijuana-related measures this fall. Including California…

    Note from Nick: We can’t be “All Brexit, all the time” so today we bring to you Jessica’s quarterly note on the state of the U.S. marijuana business. Simply put, it is going gangbusters. Read on for the details…

    As of July 1st, you can’t buy one of retail marijuana stores’ top selling products in Colorado: gummy bears. Or gummy worms or chewy candies in the shape of animals or fruits for that matter. Governor Hickenlooper recently signed a bill into law that bans marijuana-infused edibles in shapes attractive to children.

    We’ve conducted a quarterly survey on the recreational marijuana industry in Colorado for two years now, and one of our main contacts said gummies outsell all his store’s other products. He doesn’t see this change as “too big of a deal,” however, as vendors can make gummies that aren’t in kid friendly shapes. So how are cannabusinesses faring in Colorado these days? Here’s a breakdown of our usual price/units/product mix analysis:

    #1 – Price: Stores can still sell an ounce of recreational cannabis for an average range of $150 to $350, and an eighth for $25 to $45. Our contacts said they continue to experience price drops, however, due to more competition and as bigger companies put pressure on smaller stores by cutting prices. Some respondents said the lowest they’ve seen larger players reduce the price of an ounce was to $100. Most stores run discounts, and our contacts said they have been selling more eighths for $25 during the week, and even $20 on the weekends. They don’t forecast prices falling too much further. One store said a full price eighth is still $40, but wouldn’t be surprised if it declines to $30 within the next six months or year.

    #2 – Units/Traffic: The average transaction size has dropped slightly to about $40 to $50 dollars from $50 to $60. One store has successfully brought transaction sizes back up by prepackaging flower in eighths for some strains, rather than just half eighths to encourage customers to buy in larger quantities. Around 150 to 350 customers still visit our contacts’ stores each day, although some report there was greater foot traffic six months ago than the past three. This has to do with the time of year, as stores are busiest during the winter and summer since tourists make up about 50% of their customer base. One store even said the trend is moving towards more tourists, speculating that a greater number of locals may have decided to grow their own. All in all, respondents expect a bump in customers as students come back from college.

    Stores are also gearing up for July 4th by planning some specials like a buy one edible get another half off sale. Our contacts typically experience an uptick in sales around holidays. July 4th falls on a Monday, so they expect customers to stock up on the prior Friday and Saturday. The biggest day of the year is always on April 20th, the so-called national holiday for marijuana. One of the largest festivals for the day relocated to California this year, but it didn’t stop stores from besting last year’s sales figures. Dispensaries were eager to beat last year’s comp and they did. Not only did our contacts say they outpaced sales from the previous year, but MarketWatch reported retail sales jumped 53% year over year to $7.3 million on April 20th according to BDS Analytics. Another plus, our contacts said they have been better prepared to deal with such high volumes due to learning from their experiences last year.

    #3 – Mix: Our contacts still report a 50/50 split between flower and edibles/concentrates/accessories. They said numerous vendors continue to ask them to try out new products like concentrates or cartridges. The influx of vendors also puts downward pressure on wholesale prices, which contributes to lower prices at their stores. Overall, concentrates and cartridges are still the hottest products growing in popularity due to their discretion and ease of use.

    In short, we’ll let the numbers do the talking on the success of the marijuana industry in Colorado. Stores brought in $69.4 million from recreational sales just in April, based on tax data from the Colorado Department of Revenue. That’s up 58.2% y/y and marks a monthly sales record since stores first started selling retail cannabis in January 2014. Dispensaries have already generated $242 million in retail sales from January thru April (latest available data), almost half the sales garnered in 2015 ($575.8 million) in just the first four months of this year.

    So how are the economic and business developments shaping up in Washington and Oregon? Here’s the scoop:

    Prices in Washington and Oregon abated slightly, down to an average range of $25 to $50 for an eighth from $25 to $60 three months ago. Prices continued to contract especially for grams. A gram of recreational cannabis sells for an average of $10 to $15, but some stores said it now sells for as low as $8. One Washington contact said “it used to be a $10 gram market,” but over the past three months it’s now “an $8 a gram market.” He also said his store is reluctant to raise prices due to the hefty sales tax of 37% on recreational cannabis. These stores run daily and weekly discounts just like in Colorado, such as “take $4.20 off an 1/8th or more of the strain of the day!”

     

    In regards to Washington, medical growers and stores are not currently licensed or regulated, unlike the retail market. They will merge on July 1st, in which only recreational stores licensed under I-502 can remain in operation. Those who want products intended for medical use can buy them at retail stores that are medically endorsed. The Washington State Liquor and Cannabis Board (WSLCB) raised the retail store cap of 334 to 556 for the merger, but medical marijuana stores that don’t receive a license will have to shut down. Our contacts are generally happy about the merger as they are licensed and would appreciate more defined regulations. We asked the WSLCB what this would mean for prices. They said prices would likely continue to drop as there will still be plenty of licensed stores in operation and more will open; licensed stores will continue to compete against each other with their retail products as opposed to the medicinal products sold by unlicensed stores.

     

    Average transaction sizes for both states are similar to Colorado at about $45. The number of daily customers is also similar at around 200 on average, although we received a wide range of answers all the way up to as many as 600 per day; many contacts also noted increases in foot traffic over the past month likely due to the time of year. In terms of 420 for Washington, one store manager said it was a “madhouse” and “absolutely crazy.” MarketWatch reported impressive figures compared to last year just like Colorado, as the state doubled the amount of sales on April 20th to $5.5 million according to Headset. They’re also getting ready for July 4th. Now it’s about beating 2015’s comps during this year’s holidays. There will be plenty of specials consequently, like a gram of retail cannabis for just $5 or pre rolls for $3. In Oregon, one contact expects a successful weekend for the 4th of July because her community’s payday is on that Friday.

     

    Washington stores’ product mix is similar to Colorado in terms of selling about 50% flower and 50% edibles/concentrates. Our contacts said popular products include vape pens and pre rolls. While medical stores in Oregon have been able to sell flower since last fall (recreational stores don’t open until later this year), they haven’t been able to sell recreational edibles and extracts until this month. These new options have increased sales at our contacts stores across the board. With that said, some respondents noted the potency is too low. While one dose of cannabis-infused edible can have up to 15 milligrams of THC, the state wants to bring that figure down to 5 milligrams which is half of what’s allowed in Colorado. Washington received tourists from Oregon before it could sell edibles, but given the low potency in that state our Washington contacts said they still get customers from Oregon. One Oregon store manager even said he’s seen customers walk out of his store and complain that’s not what they were looking for in terms of edibles. For Oregon stores, however, they’re just thrilled they can sell recreational marijuana with one contact claiming it was “life-saving in terms of business sustainability.” The ability to sell edibles is still an added bonus.

    Sales at Washington retail marijuana stores are growing at an impressive clip, even though they are outpaced by their Colorado counterparts. So far this year thru May, they’ve brought in $229.6 million compared to $357.6 million last year, according to data provided by WSLCB. Here are the numbers for each month: January ($39.6 million, +202% y/y), February ($42.3 million, +163% y/y), March ($46.7 million, +119% y/y), April ($49.1 million, +97% y/y), and May ($51.9 million, +71% y/y).

    As for Oregon, the state’s Department of Revenue said it received $14.9 million in recreational tax payments as of May 30th. Only 57% of the 319 dispensaries in Oregon that have made at least one monthly tax payment have filed a quarterly tax return, however. With a tax rate of 25%, that suggests retail stores gained almost $60 million in revenue during the first five months of this year. It also implies stores have been bringing in about $12 million on average each month. By comparison, Colorado stores received $90.2 million and sales averaged about $18 million per month during the first five months it was sold legally. Nevertheless, Oregon’s figures will likely increase when recreational stores open later this year and now that they can sell edibles, concentrates, and extracts.

    Even with money flowing in, the legal marijuana industry has its fair share of challenges. Regulations on products, packaging, and potency limits, for example, keep changing and are continually up for debate. These states still have a lot to figure out as the industry is still in its infancy, which gives stores a level of uncertainty. One of the most pressing issues is that the drug is still illegal on a federal level, making banks largely inaccessible to store operators. One store manager said he would love to accept debit and credit cards, but only makes cash transaction to avoid any complications and puts ATMs in all of his stores. Currently, marijuana is a Schedule I narcotic, but the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency could reschedule the drug to allow medical use with a prescription or deschedule it to allow recreational use. Some reports suggest the DEA may reclassify the drug this summer. We’ll keep you posted.

    This fall’s elections could put pressure on the DEA. There are as many as nine states in which people will potentially vote on cannabis measures this fall, most likely including California as it secured the necessary number of signatures to put the Adult Use of Marijuana Act on the ballot. Despite the possibility of losing some tourist activity, store managers across Colorado, Washington, and Oregon hope the ballot in California passes this fall. One contact said “every state that checks off another going recreational is a win” in his book and that it’s another in line until they get them all. They also said California already has the infrastructure in place since medical marijuana is legal.

    In short, continue paying attention to this fast growing industry and we’ll keep you updated. If California legalizes recreational marijuana in the fall, it will likely produce a domino effect. And now voters and states can see the benefits from the ongoing successful case studies we laid out in this note. In the words of Donald Trump – also likely on the ballot in November – “It’s gonna be huge.”

  • Senator Admits The FBI Is "About To Ask Putin For His Copies Of Hillary's Emails"

    It is well known that the FBI still does not have roughly 30,000 emails that Hillary Clinton deleted from her private server due to Clinton categorizing them as personal and not work related. We have also reported that Russia may be in possession of those emails, and according to Judge Andrew Napolitano, there is a debate going on in the Kremlin about whether or not to release them.

    Given that the FBI still doesn't have the emails, Arkansas Republican Senator Tom Cotton (of the US is "under-incarcerated" fame), who is a Trump supporter and also serves on the Senate Intelligence Committee, has become so frustrated that Cotton suggests the FBI is about to ask Putin for his copies. Cotton also took a jab at Bill Clinton's meeting with Loretta Lynch, saying that his plane was also on the tarmac, and he thought Bill Clinton may be waiting to climb on board to talk with him as well.

    As Breitbart reports

    A combat veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, Sen. Thomas Cotton (R.-Ark.) said he was glad to make it on time for his speech after a series of travel delays.

     

    We were on the tarmac, I thought Bill Clinton might be boarding my plane to talk to me,” said the former Army Airborne Ranger officer.

     

    Cotton said it was shocking, but not shocking to him, that the former president would meet with Attorney General Loretta Lynch — whose department is investigating both his wife and himself for his handling of the Clinton Foundation.

     

    Clinton’s decision to conduct all her official business on her own private email account on her own private server and the way she has handled official and media inquires about it was just teaser of how her administration will approach transparency and national security, Cotton said.

     

    The FBI still does not have 30,000 emails the expected Democratic nominee for president claimed to have deleted.

     

    “It has gotten so bad, the FBI is on the verge of asking Vladimir Putin for his copies of Hillary’s emails,” Cotton said.

     

    In addition to the criminal nature of the former first lady scheme, he said, conducting official and classified business on an unsecured server exposed American national security to our enemies.

     

    Americans should not be surprised that the former secretary of state would put America at risk, he said. Working with President Barack Obama, Clinton oversaw a foreign policy that treated allies as troublemakers and our enemies as victims with legitimate complaints about the United States. Chief among the enemies is the Islamic Republic of Iran, which Obama-Clinton empowered by lifting sanctions, thawing frozen assets, and ignoring Iran’s support of violent terrorism.

    * * *

    Truth be told, it may not be a bad idea.

  • Goldman Reveals How China Is Covering Up Hundreds Of Billions In Capital Outflows

    In order to mask the tremendous capital outflows leaving its country – in order to prevent and/or delay a depositor panic – China has resorted to various gimmicks: back in October, we reported that the first one involved the PBOC gradually shifting from FX spot intervention to the using forwards as a preferred mechanism of market intervention as it is not as obvious, or as transparent to detect, to wit: “we need to take account not only of the PBoC’s non-spot market intervention efforts in the offshore market, but also of banks’ forward books if we want to get a better read on capital outflows in China.”

    Then, when Wall Street figured out how to back into the true capital outflow numbers, China stopped reporting key capital flow data outright. As SCMP reported in February, “sensitive data was missing from a regular central bank report in China amid concerns about the flow of cash out of the country as its economy slows and currency weakens.” FT added that the People’s Bank of China removed the data category “Position for forex purchase”, which tracked total foreign exchange purchases by both the central bank and other financial institutions. In its place, a separate series that captures only central bank forex purchases is substituted. A rise in forex purchases is considered a sign of capital inflows, while a drop suggests outflows.

    However, not even this was enough to mask the massive outflow of capital leaving China’s economy and being parked offshore.

    So what did China do? Why it resorted to the oldest trick in the book: fabricating data outright. Only… it was caught again. As Goldman calculates, cross-border yuan flow in recent months could have masked the true level of outflow pressure in China. According to the bank, SAFE data on onshore FX settlement show outflow of about $2b in May; was also $24b in RMB flow to offshore, meaning underlying outflow in May could be $26b, analysts including MK Tang and Maggie Wei write in a note released overnight.

    More notably, they calculate that since October total net FX outflow has been about $500 billion, which is 50% above $330b implied by SAFE’s onshore FX settlement data.

    They adds that there are no obvious market forces to explain RMB flow in recent months, adding that non-commercially driven factors seem a more likely explanation.  They note that it is possible that offshore clearing banks or Chinese entity have been buying CNH and selling back onshore; this is justified by near-daily anecdotes of frequent CNH smoothing operations by Chinese institutions. As a result, flow to offshore doesn’t show in foreigners’ holdings of CNH assets.

    Goldman also observes that since the August yuan “reform”, CNH has been generally weak; but this hasn’t led to net flow from offshore to onshore. “In a stark contrast, the relationship is in total reverse since October last year – the cheaper the CNH (vs CNY), the greater the net flow of RMB from onshore to offshore.”

    Here are the details from Goldman’s MK Tang:

    China capital flows update—sources how cross-border RMB flow might mask outflow pressures

    • We have updated our estimates of sources of China’s capital n outflows. Our analysis suggests net capital outflows at $123bn in Q1 (vs. $504bn in Q3-Q4 combined last year).
    • Of the Q1 net outflows, about 70% was due to Chinese residents’ accumulation of foreign assets; 40% to repayment of FX liabilities; and -10% to foreigners’ demand for RMB assets (i.e., foreigners were a source of net inflows in Q1). This composition is broadly similar to our earlier estimates for 2015 H2.
    • Separately, we flag a large $170bn net RMB flow from onshore to offshore since last October, which has helped reduce FX reserve drawdown and put downward pressure on CNH forward points. This flow  cannot be readily explained by marketbased factors in our view, and did not seem to result in an increase in foreigners’ CNH holdings. We think it might have masked the true FX outflow pressure in China, on the order of some $20bn (or 50%) per month in recent months.
    • Going forward, we think it will be important to also track cross-border RMB movement to get a fuller picture on China’s underlying flow situation.

    For those not intimately familiar with China’s capital outflow battle over the past year, here is a quick recap from Goldman:

    We have updated our estimates of sources of China’s capital outflows based on the framework we introduced in January. In Q1 this year and 2H last year, the big picture was the same as we estimated in the  piece – Chinese residents accumulating foreign assets remains the dominant source of total capital outflows. The mix of the different sources appears slightly different though, and we will discuss in more detail in the following session.

    • Corporates paying down FX debt: By our estimate, outflows driven by Chinese corporates paying down FX debt were US$156bn in 2H 2015, and around US$60bn in Q1 this year. As exhibit 1 and 2 show, we break down Chinese corporates FX debt into four major segments, namely trade liabilities, offshore banks’ claims on Chinese nonbanks, FX bonds issued by Chinese corporates, and FX loans lent out by onshore banks (such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China etc.) to domestic Chinese nonbank sectors.
    • Chinese residents’ cumulating FX assets: There were around US$372bn outflows driven by Chinese residents demand for foreign assets in 2H last year, and another US$108bn outflows in Q1 this year based on our calculation. In the headline reported data, Chinese residents cumulating FX assets include outward direct investment, portfolio investment assets and other investment assets. These three channels saw around US$ 268bn outflows in 2H last year and US$69bn outflows in Q1 this year. We also add “net errors and omissions” (NEO) as part of the outflows motivated by Chinese residents buying FX assets—as we’ve been discussing for a while3., we think the negative numbers in NEO might represent disguised capital outflows (Exhibit 3).
    • Foreigners reducing RMB assets: This driver has become less obvious in Q1 this year, compared with 2H last year. Around US$7.4bn outflows were driven by foreigners reducing RMB assets in 2H last year, and in Q1 this year situation actually reversed, i.e. on net basis, foreigners accumulated around US$19.6bn RMB assets rather than reducing, mainly helped by inbound FDI and the relatively stable holding of offshore CNH (more on this in the second part of the report).

    Goldman sums it up as follows:

    Summing up different sources of outflows, in Q1 this year, of the total net capital outflows of $123bn, Chinese residents buying foreign assets accounted for around 70% of the outflows, and Chinese corporates paying down FX debt explained another 40% of the outflows. Foreigners’ adding RMB assets helped mitigate outflows by around 10%. In 2H last year, according to our calculation based on factual data, residents buying FX assets accounted for 70% of the outflows, FX debt repayment was another 29%, and foreigners reducing RMB assets only represented 1% of the outflows. This was broadly in line with our analysis in the January’s work (we estimated the split at 60%/30%/10%), although the final official data suggests that foreigners reducing RMB assets was an even less important driver, while residents buying FX assets was more important than what we found based on our estimates of some BOP and FX debt data.

    So far so good: a modest $123 billion in Q1 outflows. There is just one problem: the real number is vastly greater. Here is Goldman’s explanation:

    While according to the BOP the pace of capital outflows has slowed in Q1, it might not have in fact slowed by as much as the data suggest. We have in the past discussed various caveats to interpreting official flow and reserve data, and in the following we add one more, in light of a large unusual cross-border RMB flow in recent months that we believe could have masked the true outflow pressure in China.

    A $170bn flow of RMB to offshore…

     

    Specifically, since October last year we have seen a large net flow of RMB from onshore to offshore, primarily due to trade settlement in RMB (i.e., Chinese importers pay for the imports in RMB). This totaled $170bn through May or about $20bn per month on average (Exhibit 4). This flow has helped lessen the overall outflow pressure faced by China because it means that importers did not have to buy as much FX to pay for imports (since they just used RMB). This also helps explain in our view the general decline in CNH forward points (or equivalently, CNH interest rates) in the last few months (Exhibit 5), despite market perception of large-scale CNH smoothing operations by state-related entities (more on this below).

     

     

    Compared to previous actions, this is somewhat unusual. In the past, net crossborder flow of RMB had typically been driven by offshore RMB sentiment, e.g., when offshore RMB sentiment is strong, CNH tends to be more expensive than CNY ($/CNH is below $/CNY), naturally driving a net flow of RMB from onshore to offshore (e.g., for trade settlement) to satisfy high RMB demand; and vice versa.

     

    However, especially since the August 2015 RMB reform, offshore RMB has been generally weak. While the CNH-CNY gap has narrowed in the last few months, CNH has still been usually cheaper than CNY ($/CNH above $/CNY). Therefore, the typical market-driven relationship would have suggested a net flow of RMB from offshore to onshore instead. Indeed, in a stark contrast, the relationship is in total reverse since October last year—the cheaper the CNH (vs. CNY), the greater the net flow of RMB from onshore to offshore. This is more consistent with a supply-push pattern (an exogenous push of RMB from onshore to offshore, which causes CNH to trade cheaper), rather than a market driven demand-pull relationship.

     

    In short, we cannot point to any obvious market forces that could explain the RMB flow in the last several months; non-commercially driven factors seem to be a more likely explanation, in our view.

     

    … that does not seem to result in any increase in foreigners’ CNH holdings

     

    Another interesting observation is that this large amount of net RMB flow to offshore does not seem to show up in foreigners’ holdings of CNH assets. In general, if the RMB is received by foreign non-banks, that would likely end up as CNH deposits; and if it is received by foreign banks, that would show up as an increase in banks’ holdings of CNH assets. However, CNH deposits in Hong Kong and Taiwan, two key CNH centers, have been on a decline in the last several months (Exhibit 7); and Hong Kong banks’ spot position of “other currencies” has also been falling (Exhibit 8).

     

     

    More broadly, overseas entities’ holdings of onshore RMB deposits (which include placement of CNH by offshore banks to onshore banks) have as recently, sharply deviated from the hitherto synchronized pattern with the cumulative net flow of RMB from onshore to offshore, and have been even surpassed by the latter in absolute level (Exhibit 9).

    What does this mean? In simple terms, China is masking massive capital outflows, far greater than the $123 billion reported for the first three months.

    These various official data pieced together are consistent with either of the following two possibilities:

    1. Some offshore RMB clearing banks buy RMB in the offshore market and sell the RMB back in the onshore FX market. In this scenario, it is unlikely that most of the RMB is sold to PBOC, because in the last few months PBOC’s FX reserve data have been roughly in line with the onshore demand for FX as suggested by SAFE’s onshore FX settlement data (i.e., it does not suggest that PBOC has used much of their reserves to meet offshore clearing banks’ demand for FX). In other words, in this scenario, it is likely that banks (or other non-PBOC participants of the onshore FX market) used their own FX position to buy the RMB. and in doing so, banks have likely suffered losses as CNY has generally weakened in the last few months. In late April, SAFE relaxed the regulatory floor on onshore banks’ FX net open position, expanding further their scope to short FX by $100bn.
    2. A Chinese entity (possibly state-backed) that has access to both
      offshore and onshore markets buys RMB (with FX) in the offshore market
      and invests the RMB in onshore assets.
      Since this entity is Chinese, its
      RMB assets would not be reflected in foreigners’ holdings of RMB assets

    Goldman notes that in this context, “there have been market anecdotes on frequent offshore CNH smoothing operations by Chinese institutions.” Actually, not anecdotes: those are all too daily, all too real interventions by “large banks” who keep a barrier on both the CNY and CNH from moving far beyond 6.65. It is precisely in these “streamlining” operations that this massive “outflow” is hidden.

    Summing it all up, the reality is that instead of $330 billion in FX outflows since October, the real number is 50% greater, or half a trillion, which also suggests that instead of getting better, China’s capital outflow situation is as bad as it has been, and not only that, but the government is now actively covering up the reality. Here’s Goldman:

    Given the discussion above, it is possible that the actual underlying FX flow situation (i.e., FX/RMB demand by Chinese corporates/households and foreigners) has been less encouraging than even the SAFE data on onshore FX settlement imply10. (e.g., according to that data alone, FX outflow was about $2bn in May.), but there was also $24bn in RMB flow to offshore during the month—if we assume that that flow was not market-driven and that it was not subsequently held by foreigners, then the underlying FX outflow could instead be $26bn in May. In the eight months since last October, this approach would have suggested a total net FX outflow of about $500bn, or 50% above the $330bn implied by SAFE’s onshore FX settlement data.

    All of this is bad news for the PBOC, now that the market is on to it:

    Going forward, we believe also tracking the data on cross-border RMB flow (released monthly by SAFE) will be important to coming to a more comprehensive view on the underlying flow picture. For the time being, we will be incorporating this into our measure of net FX flow (Exhibit 10 shows this modified version

    This means that either China’s central bank will have to disclose the truth, or further cover up the true nature of China’s capital outflows, in the process unleashing even more skepticism, even more outflows, and even more concerns about China’s economy (and banking system), to the point where these concerns reflame the same cross-asset (and market) contagions that led to the December/January swoon and which have been temporarily brushed under the rug while the Shanghai Accord still forces central banks to avoid major market moves in response to the sweeping capital outflows undertaken by China. 

    For now, however, we will be content to watch how the narrative that China’s capital outflows are “moderating” crashes and burns, and how long it takes other capital markets to realize that far from fixed, China is furiously burning through virtually any and all liquid reserves it still has access to, only doing so in a way that only a handful of central bankers were aware of it. Well, now everyone else knows as well thanks to Goldman…. which brings us tothe Goldman note from a month ago, in which Goldman revealed the FX doom loop…

    … and in which the bank openly declared war on the Yuan, which it expects will crash in the coming months. To be sure, no better way to achieve that than by actually revealing the truth.

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Today’s News 4th July 2016

  • Precious Metal Pandemonium – Silver Spikes Limit-Up, Gold Surges As China FX Basket Hits Record Low

    Update: Silver just exploded above $21 – up almost 8% – its biggest single day surge since September 2013. Silver is limit up on SHFE as Gold is also surging back towards Brexit highs near $1360… China's CFETS Renminbi basket just hit a record low..

    All of this is happening as China's currency collapses to a record low since it began being published against a broad basket of majors…

     

    Notably silver's strength has unwound all of gold's post-QE3 gains…

    *  *  *

    As we detailed earlier, following silver's best week since August 2013, dramatically catching up to gold's recent performance, it appears, despite the volumeless meltup in stocks, that Brexit has sparked huge demand for the safety of precious metals.

     

    For a second straight week, funds boosted their net-long futures and options positions in the two metals to the highest since the data begins in 2006.

     

    Money managers have been piling in on demand for havens and speculation that interest rates will stay low as central bankers around the world struggle to contain the economic fallout from the U.K.’s vote to quit the European Union.

    But what happens next?

     

    As a reminder, on April 21st PIMCO's Harley Bassman suggested "The Fed should monetize gold"…

    In "Rumpelstiltskin at the Fed", Bassman goes down the well-trodden path of proposing Fed asset purchases as the last ditch panacea for the US economy, however instead of buying bonds, or stocks, or crude oil, Bassman has a truly original idea: "the Fed should unleash a massive Fed gold purchase program that could echo a Depression-era effort that effectively boosted the U.S. economy."

    He is of course, referring to FDR's 1933 Executive Order 6102, which made it illegal for a citizen to own gold bullion or coins. Americans promptly sold their gold to the government at the official price of $20.67, with the resulting hoard of gold was then placed in Fort Knox.

    The Gold Reserve Act of 1934 raised the official price of gold to $35.00, a near 70% increase. It also resulted in an implicit devaluation of the US dollar. As Bassman points out, over the three years from January 1934 to December 1936, GDP increased by 48%, the Dow Jones stock index rose by nearly 80%, and most salient to our topic, inflation averaged a positive 2% annually, despite a national unemployment rate hovering around 18%.

    In short, a brief economic nirvana which was unleashed by the devaluation of the dollar confiscation of gold. In fact, we have frequently hinted in the past that another Executive Order 6102 is inevitable for precisely these reasons. However this is the first time when we see a "respected economist" openly recommend this idea as a matter of monetary policy.

    Bassman says that the Fed should "emulate a past success by making a public offer to purchase a significantly large quantity of gold bullion at a substantially greater price than today’s free-market level, perhaps $5,000 an ounce? It would be operationally simple as holders could transact directly at regional Federal offices or via authorized precious metal assayers."

    What would the outcome of such as "QE for the goldbugs" look like? His summary assessment:

    A massive Fed gold purchase program would differ from past efforts at monetary expansion. Via QE, the transmission mechanism was wholly contained within the financial system; fiat currency was used to buy fiat assets which then settled on bank balance sheets. Since QE is arcane to most people outside of Wall Street, and NIRP seems just bizarre to most non-academics, these policies have had little impact on inflationary expectations. Global consumers are more familiar with gold than the banking system, thus this avenue of monetary expansion might finally lift the anchor on inflationary expectations and their associated spending habits.

     

    The USD may initially weaken versus fiat currencies, but other central banks could soon buy gold as well, similar to the paths of QE and NIRP. The impactful twist of a gold purchase program is that it increases the price of a widely recognized “store of value,” a view little diminished despite the fact the U.S. relinquished the gold standard in 1971. This is a vivid contrast to the relatively invisible inflation of financial assets with its perverse side effect of widening the income gap.

    And it seems someone is front-running that moment…

    Source: Bloomberg

  • U.N. Official 'Accidentally' Crushes Own Throat Right Before Testifying Against Hillary Clinton

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    Call it conspiracy theory, coincidence or just bad luck, but any time someone is in a position to bring down Hillary Clinton by testifying they wind up dead. In fact, there’s a long history of Clinton-related body counts, with scores of people dying under mysterious circumstances.

    Perhaps the most notable is Vince Foster. Foster was a partner at Clinton’s law firm and knew the inner workings of the Clinton Machine.  Police ruled that death a suicide, though it is often noted that Foster may have been suicided.

    Now, another official has found himself on the wrong end of the Clintons. That John Ashe was a former President of the United Nations General Assembly highlights the fact that no one is safe once in their sights.

    And as you might have guessed, there are major inconsistencies with Ashe’s death. It was not only conveniently timed because Ashe died just a few days before being set to testify against Clinton in a corruption case, but official reports indicated he died of a heart attack.

    The problem, however, is that police on the scene reported Ashe died when his throat was crushed during a work-out accident.

    The New York Post’s Page Six reported that after Ashe was found dead Wednesday, the U.N. claimed that he had died from a heart attack. Local police officers in Dobbs Ferry, New York, later disputed that claim, saying instead that he died from a workout accident that crushed his throat.

     

    Adding to the mysterious nature of Ashe’s death was the fact that he had been slated to be in court Monday with his Chinese businessman co-defendant Ng Lap Seng, from whom he reportedly received over $1 billion in donations during his term as president of the U.N. General Assembly.

     

    And then there was this: During the presidency of Bill Clinton, Seng illegally funneled several hundred thousand dollars to the Democrat National Committee.

     

    Source: The Conservative Tribune via The Daily Sheeple

    It must be coincidence, right?

    If former Secret Service agent Gary Byrne is to be believed, this is business as usual for the Clintons. Excerpt via Zero Hedge:

    BYRNE: I feel so strongly that people need to know the real Hillary Clinton and how dangerous she is in her behavior. She is not a leader. She is not a leader.

     

    SEAN: She does not have the temperament?

     

    BYRNE: She doesn’t have the temperament. She didn’t have the temperament to handle the social office when she was First Lady, she does not have the temperament.

     

    SEAN: She’s dishonest.

     

    BYRNE: She’s dishonest, she habitually lies, anybody that can separate themselves from their politics and review her behavior over the past 15 years…

    Byrne is the author of the newly published book Crisis Of Character – a first-hand Clinton exposé.

  • Suicide Bomber Blows Himself Up In Front Of US Consulate In Saudi Arabia

    After last night’s massive suicide bombing in Baghdad which killed over 100, and which ISIS took responsibility for, we doubt the Islamic State will be just as quick to take credit for tonight’s latest terrorist attempt, this time in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah, where a suspected suicide bomber was killed in front of the US consulate.

    As the Saudi Gazette reports, security authorities have raised the alert in Jeddah to the maximum after a suicide bombing attempt in which an individual blew himself up inside a car in front of the US Consulate in Jeddah.

    According to Sabq sources two diplomatic security personnel were injured in the blast. They were rushed to the hospital. Security forces in Jeddah surrounded the area and enforced a lockdown where the consulate is located. Security forces are following up on the situation.

    BBC adds that two policeman were reportedly injured in the incident and the attacker is said to be dead. The attack came in the early hours of US Independence Day. The Jeddah consulate was the scene of a militant attack in 2004, which left nine people dead.

    The attack coming on July 4 is hardly a coincidence.

    For now, the market is not reading too much into it, with WTI up just 2 cents; if anything it is silver which is surging which as of moments ago just hit limit up in Shanghaim, surging by 6%.

  • Old Men Start Wars, Young Men Die In Them

    Submitted by Laurence Vance via LewRockwell.com,

    “Older men start wars, but younger men fight them.” ~ Albert Einstein

     

    “Older men declare war. But it is the youth that must fight and die.” ~ Herbert Hoover

     

    “I’m fed up to the ears with old men dreaming up wars for young men to die in.” ~ George S. McGovern

    One hundred years ago – on July 1, 1916 – thousands of young men died after older men decided, again, to send them to war. On the first day of the Battle of the Somme, the British army suffered 57,470 casualties, of which 19,240 were deaths, the French had 1,590 casualties, and the Germans had over 10,000. It was the single greatest day for casualties in British military history. By the time the Battle of the Somme ended in November, the British had around 420,000 casualties, the French about 200,000, and the Germans about 500,000.

    One would think that when almost 20,000 of your young men in the prime of their life die in one battle on one day that the British would simply say “enough is enough” and just tell the army to quit fighting and go home. But no, the British army continued to execute men for desertion like the hundred or more that suffered that fate in the two years before the Battle of the Somme.

    It is senseless slaughter like the Battle of the Somme that led Ernest Hemingway, who was an ambulance driver in Italy toward the end of World War I, to say:

    They wrote in the old days that it is sweet and fitting to die for one’s country. But in modern war there is nothing sweet nor fitting in your dying. You will die like a dog for no good reason.

     

    Never think that war, no matter how necessary, nor how justified, is not a crime.

    Over 115,000 American soldiers would go on to die like dogs for no good reason after the United States foolishly and senselessly entered World War I in April of 1917. The thousands of U.S. troops who in more recent times died in Iraq and Afghanistan likewise senselessly died in vain and for a lie.

    How do you prevent such senseless slaughter? How do you stop young men from dying in vain? How do you prohibit young men from dying for a lie? How do you stop making widows and orphans? How do you thwart young men dying like dogs? How do you stop young men from dying for no good reason? How do you end the war once and for all?

    It is an uphill battle.

    Governments, presidents, politicians, and military officers will continue to send young men to fight and die.

    The military establishment will continue to want more money and more weapons of war to try out.

    Legislatures will continue to fund bloated military budgets.

    Defense contractors—merchants of death—will continue to lobby for more armaments, more military interventions, and more wars.

    Uber-patriots, neocons, armchair warriors, just war theorists, progressive hawks, reich-wing nationalists, red-state fascists, pro-lifers for mass murder, and bloodthirsty conservatives will continue to cheer on the military.

    Christian Coalition moralists, Old Testament Christians, evangelical warvangelicals, theocon Values Voters, imperial Christians, nuclear Christians, Religious Right warmongers, God and country Christian bumpkins, sniper theologians, and members of the Christian axis of evil—all claiming to worship the prince of peace—will continue to support the troops no matter what.

    Some libertarians will continue to write me and say that although they agree with everything I say about the follies of U.S. foreign policy and military interventions none of it is the fault of the troops and I should quit criticizing them even though they enlisted in the U.S. war machine of their own free will.

    So, how do you end the war once and for all? Easy. Young men simply need to stop joining the military. It is just as Einstein said:

    Nothing will end war unless the people themselves refuse to go to war.

    The pioneers of a warless world are the youth who refuse military service.

    “War has never been possible,” writes Robert Meagher in Killing from the Inside Out: Moral Injury and Just War, “ unless men have been willing to kill each other and, while they’re at it, possibly to be killed.” And as I have said over and over again: you can’t have a war without soldiers. It is only by young men not enlisting or refusing to enlist that war can be ended once and for all.

  • Upon Completing The World's Largest Radio Telescope, China Will Now Be Listening For Aliens

    When GDP is falling and the global economy is weak, there are normally many let's say, "out of the box" ideas on how to stimulate growth again – aside from central planners tripping over each other to see who can print money the fastest that is.

    For China, one would assume that more ghost cities are being built, or new projects are being constructed in order to stop Beijing from sinking, but one project that has taken place that many may not have known about is the construction of the world's largest radio telescope.

    As RT reports, China has now completed construction on the world's largest radio telescope. The Single-Aperture Spherical Radio Telescope (FAST) as it is known, is an enormous dish made up of 4,450 reflector panels with a diameter of a half a kilometer, which is larger than the previous record holder, Puerto Rico's Arcibo Observatory.

    It was completed in southwestern China's Guizhou Province on Sunday, when the last reflector was fitted into a natural bunker, which is situated among the mountains of Pingtang County.

    The task of the telescope? According to RT, it is to be used to look for intelligent life in deep outer space. Once operational, FAST will be able to detect radio signals from as far away as one thousand light years – evidently that's where the aliens are.

    Work began on the project in March of 2011, and was completed Sunday, ahead of the originally planned September date. The project displaced some local residents, who were given $1,800 in compensation and moved to a newly built accommodation.

    In total, RT reports that the project cost just over $105 million – while it isn't quite the Death Star we were looking for, this is an excellent start.

    Enjoy…

    via GIPHY

  • The Curse Of Socialist Highways – How Government Ruins July 4th Travel

    Submitted by Tho Bishop via The Mises Institute,

    At its best, Independence Day is a celebration of American secession and a testament to individual liberty. At its worst, Independence Day is still a day where government offices are closed, American grills are lit and the evening sky is full of fireworks, which is still pretty good (at least in my subjective value.)

    Unfortunately the travel before and after the 4th of July is a different story, with it widely considered one of the worst travel days of the year. While the desire to take advantage of the holiday to enjoy friends and family is a natural product of humans being inherently social creatures, the degree to which this congestion leads to headache and misery rests solely with the institution responsible for them during the rest of the year – the government.

    The Curse of Socialist Highways

    The question “who will build the roads?” has become such a statist cliché that it’s perhaps the only libertarian internet meme bigger than “taxation is theft” and Ron Paul informing us that “it’s happening.” It has earned that designation because the entire idea of roads and highways has become so synonymous with government that even Joe McCarthy voted for this form of socialism.

    Of course, the purpose for the current American interstate system had nothing to do with consumer demand and everything to do with military transportation throughout the country. While some may defend such a project on that basis, it shouldn’t be a surprise that interstates designed to transport tanks and weapons aren’t always the best at facilitating family travel.

    As Walter Block has long argued, much of the congestion on these highways is a direct result of their being in the control of government and therefore being unable to have proper pricing. In his article Congestion and Road Pricing, Dr. Block rebuts various arguments defending public management of highways, as well as government-based solutions (such as automobile bans that were in vogue at the time). Block identifies how free market solutions would solve the problem of congestion, such as enabling “travel entrepreneurs” to design and fund higher-cost toll roads for travelers who don’t mind paying extra for a quicker drive. Not only would such a system obviously cut down the congestion for these “luxury drivers”, but their absence from more commonly used roads means less congestion for those who don’t use them. 

    We have seen this play out when governments have tried to imitate this highway pricing mechanism with the construction of various higher-cost toll roads across the country. While so called “Lexus lanes” do offer alternatives to traditional highways and thus make some impact on congestion, they still suffer from the same problem inherent with government infrastructure in its lack of real economic calculation. Government allowing taxi’s to charge more when picking up from airports isn’t a replacement for Uber surge pricing, and the USPS charging more for overnight deliver isn’t a replacement for Fed Ex.

    While there are a few examples of genuine private roads in America — the Orchard Pond Parkway, Florida’s first privately funded toll road, opened up earlier this year – as long as government roads enjoy the privilege of being subsidized by gasoline taxes over private investment, the highways system will continue to be commanded with all the efficiency of Soviet central planners.

    It’s also worth noting the irony that this government project which is often held up by the left as an example of the necessity of government, is also the greatest hindrance to the progressive desire to eliminate gas-burning cars. As libertarians have long pointed out, the Federal highway project was a massive government subsidy to the automobile industry at the expense of alternative travel options – including trains and airplanes. Of course since the government has its own ways of controlling both rails and airspace, we’d likely be suffering from a whole other set of government-caused issues anyway.

    Government’s Unfriendly Skies

    Speaking of air travel, we would be amiss without highlighting some of the ways government has destroyed the fun of flying.

    Some of these are obvious, especially given the number of headlines this spring highlighting how the TSA’s security theater had created unprecedented wait times throughout the country. American Airlines alone reported having 70,000 missed flights due to TSA complications. Even more appalling are the numerous examples of the TSA failing to treat customers with basic human dignity, such as the most recent example of a disabled 19-year old left bloodied after trying to go through airport security in Memphis.

    Americans have good reason to be even more livid at these issues than those caused by highway congestion. While government roads have their share of problems, they will at least manage to get you where you need to go. The TSA, on the other hand, doesn’t even succeed at achieving its stated mission. If there is a silver lining to be found in the TSA’s spectacularly incompetence, it’s that the performance has been so abysmal that even government-managed airports are having to seriously consider alternatives.

    Subsidizing Terrible Airlines

    While the TSA represents an obvious example of government ruining flying, there are a variety of others ways government can ruin air travel. While it may be difficult to rally the public around Murray Rothbard’s calls to abolish the FAA at this time, another program that should infuriate tax payers is the Essential Air Service program. While billed as a way to ensure airlines maintain flights in “underserved” rural communities, in practice it serves as a way for poorly operated airlines to make money in spite of how well they serve their clients.

    One airline that received near $18.5 million dollars is Silver Airlines, which recently left my hometown of Panama City Beach, FL and is perhaps the worst company I’ve ever done business with.

    During their time in PCB, my family attempted to fly with them four different times for eight different flights. Of those eight times, only two operated without problem. Two flights were cancelled without any notice and the other four suffered delays ranging from three-six hours. While delays and flying weight concerns are part of the operational hazard of flying, Silver Airlines compounded the issue with poor customer service and vouchers that did not adequately cover the expenses of delay. An attempt to resolve these complaints with company management is directed to an automated system as useful as the TSA.

    Ludwig von Mises described capitalism as “a social system of consumers’ supremacy.”

    As such, following our last experience with Silver, my family agreed to never use them again, the taxes we pay are still going to pad their bottom line.  While Silver’s abysmal record is not an indictment on all the other airlines that utilize the EAS program, it is an example of what happens when government intervention serves to enrich terribly operated companies regardless of consumer demand.

    So if you find yourself wasting hours stuck in holiday traffic or at the airport this 4th of July, remind yourself that the solution to your headache can be found within the reason for this particular season. If we were to claim independence from the modern-day royalty of the beltway, the markets will ensure better holidays in the future.

  • Merkel To Get Rid Of Jean-Claude Juncker "Within The Next Year"

    In the aftermath of the Brexit fiasco, the biggest fissure that emerged was not between the economies of the UK and Europe, nor between the stock markets of the UK and Europe, both of which have spiked on the back of another round of central bank liquidity promises, but between Angela Merkel, and the alcohol-afficionado who erroneously believes is the head of Europe, Jean-Claude Juncker. Unfortunately for the latter, he is now on his way out because as the Telegraph reports, citing a Sunday Times interview with a German government minister, Merkel has finally decided to oust Europe’s federalist chief Jean-Claude Juncker “within the next year.”

    The catalyst for those who have been following the Brexit fallout should not come as a surprise: as we first reported a week ago in ‘More Confusion: EU Tells Cameron To Hurry Up With Article 50 As Merkel Says No Need To Rush“, the German chancellor’s frustration with the European Commission chief came as Europe split over whether to use the Brexit negotiations as a trigger to deepen European integration or take a more pragmatic approach to Britain as it heads for the exit door.

    “The pressure on him [Juncker] to resign will only become greater and Chancellor Merkel will eventually have to deal with this next year,” an unnamed German minister told The Sunday Times, adding that Berlin had been furious with Mr Juncker “gloating” over the UK referendum result. Look no further than “Juncker Lashes Out At British Lawmakers: “Why Are You Here?”” for an example of just that.

    Furthermore, Juncker’s constant and unabashed calls for “more Europe” – many of which have come in an intoxicated or outright drugged state – has led to several of Europe other dissenting members – including Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic – to lay some of the blame for Brexit at his door.

    Even before he was appointed President of the European Commission – against the wishes of David Cameron – concerns were raised about Mr Juncker’s alchohol consumption which were dismissed as a “smear campaign” by his officials. It was, however, all true: at the time The Telegraph and several other newspapers reported officials worrying about Mr Juncker having “cognac for breakfast” and rolling through long negotiations fortified with large quantities of claret and brandy. 

    Some have had enough of Europe’s most humiliating alcoholic, and since the June 23 vote both the Czech and Polish foreign ministers have called publicly for Mr Juncker to resign, moves that one senior EU official dismissed last week as “predictable”. However, the rumblings from Berlin now represent a much more serious threat to Mr Juncker’s tenure. The split also offers a glimmer of hope for British negotiators who are preparing for fractious EU-UK divorce talks and are desperate to avoid a repeat of February’s failed negotiations which – controlled as they were by Mr Juncker and the Commission – left David Cameron without enough ‘wins’ to avoid Brexit.

    Meanwhile, Juncker’s European Commission is being shut down by members:

    “Everyone is determined that this negotiation is handled in the European Council – i.e. between the 27 heads of government – and not by the Commission, the eurocrats and the EU ‘theologians’ in Brussels,” a senior UK source told The Telegraph.

    In a signal that battle has partly already been won, Mrs Merkel pointedly met with French and Italian leaders in Berlin last week, excluding Mr Juncker from the conversation. As the Telegraph adds, British strategists hope that creating a much broader negotiation that includes the UK’s role in keeping Europe geopolitically relevant through its deep Nato ties, defence contributions and links to Washington, they can avoid a narrow tit-for-tat negotiation on trade where the UK has only very limited leverage.

    At its core, Merkel’s anger reflects a growing schism in Europe between the likes of Juncker and the French and Belgian leaders, who want to see “more Europe” after Brexit, and those, like Merkel and her powerful finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble who believe that would be “crazy”, according to the Times. Prior to the Brexit vote senior European Commission officials were privately jubilant about the opportunity that a British ‘leave’ vote would present to complete the European project, sucking reluctant countries like Poland into the Euro “within five years”.

    Since the Brexit vote, French ministers have been far less conciliatory to the UK than German, openly salivating at the prospect of UK-based financial businesses relocating to Paris. If so, the French will be disappointed as we hinted in “Is This Where All Those Companies “Leaving England” Will Go.” After all, few companies are so insane to leave the stability London for the socialist purgatory of Paris.

  • Black Trump Supporter Exposes Truth About "The Black Vote"

    Submitted by Kristin Campbell via ConservativeTribune.com,

    Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump and his supporters have been accused of being “racist,” which isn’t exactly an uncommon label given to Republicans by liberals.

    However, one black Trump supporter recently dropped an epic truth bomb about what black voters really want out of the American dream, and if true, it should have them lining up to vote Republican in massive numbers.

    Podcaster and blogger Sonnie Johnson told Breitbart that many black voters fully understand and support Trump’s message of wealth over poverty.

    “This message is very simple,” Johnson said. “It is wealth over poverty. If you do not think that blacks understand that message, you have lost your entire mind.”

    The outspoken conservative explained that black Americans were “tired of living in poverty.”

    “We want greatness. We do not want to be dependent. We do not want free s***,” she said. “We want to be able to operate in the American system, just the way every other American operates, and that takes wealth.”

    Johnson said she believed that Republicans had an opportunity this year to “crack this progressive shell,” which has already sustained some cracks from Trump’s campaign.

    In fact, she insisted that black people have already begun to realize that the presumptive GOP nominee’s message was one for all Americans, not just white voters – even if the media doesn’t portray his growing support in the black community.

    If you go back, if you look on Twitter right now, to see all of the blacks that are in support of Donald Trump, every stat they show, shows that that support doesn’t exist. Every person they put on says that black people will not support Trump,” Johnson explained.

    The blogger considered this election this “chance of a lifetime” when it comes to recruiting black voters to the GOP, but said Republicans must put forth the right message in order to do so.

    “If we can … start talking about the American Dream — what it has to offer, what we as the right wing have to offer!” she said. “Freedom, liberty, financial independence, those are things that we can sell.”

    Many polls have reported that the black vote comprised a mere 1 percent of Trump’s overall support — something Johnson strongly rejected.

    “No way,” she said. “They poll Democrats. They poll people that are used to voting for Democrats and just put their name down. They did not poll average black people.”

    These “average black people” are listening to the Republican message of conservative values through Trump, she argued.

    You can listen to the entire interview here:

    Johnson is right — the Republican Party has more to offer anyone searching for “freedom” or “financial independence.” While Democrat policies have sought to keep black people dependent and on the government dole, conservatism offers the proven concept that smaller government equals more freedom.

  • German Arms Exports Nearly Double In 2015

    The US isn't the only country to can crank up its sales of weapons around the world. As we have pointed out previously, Germany is also a relatively large exporter in the global arms trade.

    It turns out that Germany had a booming arms export business in 2015, because as Reuters reports, German arms exports almost doubled last year to their highest level since the beginning of this century. The value of individual approvals granted for exporting arms was €7.86 billion last year compared to €3.97 billion in 2014. Exports were boosted by a the approval of four tanker aircraft for Britain worth €1.1 billion, and a controversial approval of battle tanks and howitzers along with munitions to be sent to Qatar.

    From Reuters

    Newspaper Welt am Sonntag said the value of individual approvals granted for exporting arms was 7.86 billion euros ($8.75 billion) last year compared with 3.97 billion euros worth of arms exports in 2014.

     

    It said the Economy Ministry had pointed to special factors that boosted arms exports such as the approval of four tanker aircraft for Britain worth 1.1 billion euros.

     

    It also pointed to the approval of battle tanks and tank howitzers along with munitions and accompanying vehicles worth 1.6 billion euros for Qatar – a controversial deal that the report said was approved in 2013 by the previous government.

     

    The Economy Ministry declined to comment on the report.

     

    In February German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel said preliminary figures showed that Germany had given approval for around 7.5 billion euros worth of arms shipments in 2015.

     

    The Federal Office for Economics and Export Control (Bafa), a subsidiary of the economy ministry, is responsible for licensing arms export deals and Gabriel had promised to take a much more cautious approach to licensing arms exports, especially with regard to the Middle East.

     

    Germany is one of the world's main arms exporters to EU and NATO countries and has been cutting its sales of light weapons outside those states.

     

    Last year the government rejected 100 applications for arms export approvals – the same number as in the previous year, Welt am Sonntag reported. It said Berlin had given 12,687 applications the green light in 2015 – 597 more than in the previous year.

    According to Deutsche Welle, Qatar, a Gulf Arab state has been labeled by German opposition parties as an alleged source of funding for ISIS, which is why the receipt of tanks and heavy artillery, as well as ammunition and accompanying vehicles makes it a controversial sale.

    From DW

    Qatar, a Gulf Arab state panned by German opposition parties as an alleged source of funding for the "Islamic State" (IS) terror militia, received combat tanks and heavy artillery, as well as ammunition and accompanying vehicles worth 1.6 billion euros.

     

    Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel, who heads the Social Democrats, had tried to stop the delivery to Qatar but was outvoted by other ministers on Germany's Federal Security Council.

     

    That deal had already been cleared in 2013 by Chancellor Angela Merkel's previous coalition, which then comprised her conservatives and the pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP).

     

    Disclosure in February of that sale prompted renewed outcries from church-based lobby groups and charities such as Pax Christi and Misereor.

    * * *

    Exporting weapons and war appears to be something that the western world is still quite strong in, despite the rest of the world seeing global trade slumping. Also, when it comes to the €1.6 billion sale to Qatar, is it really a surprise to anyone – €1.6 billion is a lot of cash to pass up, and money talks as we have all come to learn.

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Today’s News 3rd July 2016

  • How to make fireworks in your account

    While most of the US population drowns in a prolonged semi-conscious state for several days, with moments of alertness (they’ll know they are alive when they see the fireworks) – the remaining force of human intelligence on the planet, spends time trying to figure out ways to break through this vast blanket of social control that’s been thrown over the population like a sticky net, which is slowly eating away at the global standard of living, overall quality, lowering human genetic value.  Each day, our money is worth less and less.  Why?  We explain this in Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex.

    The problem with much discussion on Zero Hedge and alternative media in general, is that it lacks a conclusion and proposed solution.  So, we mostly agree that the USD is toast, there’s an insurmountable debt that cannot be paid back (because in a debt-based money system, if the debt is paid off, money will cease to exist).  Gold is the go to alternative to stocks & bonds which are mostly overrated – but then what?  So let’s say Gold hit’s $50,000 USD per ounce.  Then what?  Well for one, be sure that you have some good security because in a crisis, the only real currency is accelerated lead, as elaborated here eloquently.

    So what is an investor to do?  Fundamental analysis of markets is impossible, because of reasons outlined well on this site:

    1) Market data is manipulated heavily.  By the time any investor receives market information (unless he’s paying for a front running service) one can assume it’s been seen by leading market controllers, HFTs, directors of various unsundry government organizations, and George Soros.

    2) The world changes too rapidly for any fundamental strategy to play out.  Too many wildcard events can derail strategies such as value investing.  Brexit is a great example – and there will be many more “Brexits.”

    3) Even if the above 1 & 2 didn’t exist, an investor would need a carrying broker that was fair and honest, and would provide decent execution, and not go out of business.  With investing strategies such as some which are discussed on this site, this is a big issue.  For example, if Gold is $50,000 let’s say that GLD goes bust, and starts a chain reaction on exchange listed ETFs and ETNs, which can’t possibly fullfill their underlying liquidity obligations even in currenct conditions, not in extreme conditions.  Could it bring down some BDs with them?  SIPC is limited (..and if it were a TD Ameritrade, no insurance in the world can cover it).  So with such extreme strategies, counterparty risk is very large – especially in such climates that would make extreme strategies flourish.  Florida residents know very well how this works, when a big Hurricane strikes, the majority of underwriters for flood & Hurricane insurance go bust (FL law or mortgage policy sometimes require residents carry “Hurricane” insurance which doesn’t cover “flood” damage).  If the markets melt down, as many claim – how many brokers would go bust?  How many leveraged banks?  Some big banks are not looking good (such as DB – $54 – $75 Trillion derivative bomb), even in this ideal banking climate.

    Hoarding a 6 month supply of food, and living in an underground bunker, is not a real solution.  Having a bug out bag, ammo, gold bars & silver coins, and other paraphernalia, it’s just survival.  It’s not a strategy.  Keeping Gold is the investing equivalent of being a prepper.  And as we’ve explained in a previous detailed article, preppers have it all wrong.

    Algorithmic Trading – The New Asset Class

    This is one solution – and likely will soon be an entire asset class by itself.  Robo-Advisors are becoming popular in securities, but on the surface it seems they are only SAS solutions that are replacing human office workers.  They are just doing the job that the office worker RIA used to do; meet with clients and build a vanilla portfolio with 20% Utilities and 50% Technology and 20% “Growth” (whatever that ever meant) and 10% Dividend stocks.  Currently, HFT is dominated by large institutional players that frankly, the public knows very little about.  See one example Jump Trading.  The problem is their inaccessability – investors will need many millions to start (consider $50 Million, for a good start).  Also, having the $50 Million doesn’t qualify you for anything.  Now you’ll have to develop your own algorithms, or hire another firm to do it.  But this is the equivalent of hiring a consultant to tell you what business you are in (Consultants, and lawyers, will do this for a fee).

    Then there’s the world of retail algorithmic Forex, not allowed for US investors (or at least, so highly restricted and regulated it makes any normally profitable strategy, barely profitable).  As this chart shows, it really is “Magic:”

    The above is a real live trading account over a period of 3 years.  Not likely that an investor can find such performance in stocks, or ‘robo advisors.’  

    The point is that an algorithm can trade any market, and if the strategy is stable, and consistent, it can deliver investment returns above and beyond the average, that are not correlated to the market – and most importantly – NOT DEPENDENT ON HUMAN BEINGS.  An algorithm isn’t perfect, but it solves the basic fundamental problems of human traders.  And there are thousands of them.  You can even evaluate FX algorithms for free, without investing a penny.  Checkout www.getfxliquidity.com as one example – there are many.  To learn more about investing in Forex checkout Fortress Capital Forex here. 

    Algorithms give developers many abilities that simply wouldn’t be possible with human traders.  Most importantly, in a sterile development environment, it’s possible to test, analyze, and optimize any trading idea relatively quickly, and then develop a robust strategy based on this process.  It’s necessary to invest heavily in computing to do this, but many who have done this will offer their strategies for investors use.  What’s good about this approach is that it’s an investment in a methodology, not in an asset class. 

    This is a fundamental mistake made by modern investors.  Gold is great.  But then what?  During Brexit for example, it was possible to buy and sell the Great British Pound by more than 10 signficant moves, during a 10 hour period.  That’s activity that an algo can capture.  Just ‘investing’ in the US Dollar, or Great British Pound – is risky.  If an algo is built with a robust risk management module, it’s the safest way to trade the markets.  And one doesn’t need to become an expert in mathematics and algorithm development to do so – there are hundreds of algos available for use by any investor, big or small.  But if one does want to take on a challenge and build his own investing system, there are literally thousands of free resources online to support that development.  There’s companies that have built a business out of algorithm development.  And certainly, this is only the beginning of a new blue ocean market.  The reason algos are the future?  Because they work.  That’s all.

  • U.N. Official 'Accidentally' Crushes Own Throat Right Before Testifying Against Hillary Clinton

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    Call it conspiracy theory, coincidence or just bad luck, but any time someone is in a position to bring down Hillary Clinton by testifying they wind up dead. In fact, there’s a long history of Clinton-related body counts, with scores of people dying under mysterious circumstances.

    Perhaps the most notable is Vince Foster. Foster was a partner at Clinton’s law firm and knew the inner workings of the Clinton Machine.  Police ruled that death a suicide, though it is often noted that Foster may have been suicided.

    Now, another official has found himself on the wrong end of the Clintons. That John Ashe was a former President of the United Nations General Assembly highlights the fact that no one is safe once in their sights.

    And as you might have guessed, there are major inconsistencies with Ashe’s death. It was not only conveniently timed because Ashe died just a few days before being set to testify against Clinton in a corruption case, but official reports indicated he died of a heart attack.

    The problem, however, is that police on the scene reported Ashe died when his throat was crushed during a work-out accident.

    The New York Post’s Page Six reported that after Ashe was found dead Wednesday, the U.N. claimed that he had died from a heart attack. Local police officers in Dobbs Ferry, New York, later disputed that claim, saying instead that he died from a workout accident that crushed his throat.

     

    Adding to the mysterious nature of Ashe’s death was the fact that he had been slated to be in court Monday with his Chinese businessman co-defendant Ng Lap Seng, from whom he reportedly received over $1 billion in donations during his term as president of the U.N. General Assembly.

     

    And then there was this: During the presidency of Bill Clinton, Seng illegally funneled several hundred thousand dollars to the Democrat National Committee.

     

    Source: The Conservative Tribune via The Daily Sheeple

    It must be coincidence, right?

    If former Secret Service agent Gary Byrne is to be believed, this is business as usual for the Clintons. Excerpt via Zero Hedge:

    BYRNE: I feel so strongly that people need to know the real Hillary Clinton and how dangerous she is in her behavior. She is not a leader. She is not a leader.

     

    SEAN: She does not have the temperament?

     

    BYRNE: She doesn’t have the temperament. She didn’t have the temperament to handle the social office when she was First Lady, she does not have the temperament.

     

    SEAN: She’s dishonest.

     

    BYRNE: She’s dishonest, she habitually lies, anybody that can separate themselves from their politics and review her behavior over the past 15 years…

    Byrne is the author of the newly published book Crisis Of Character – a first-hand Clinton exposé.

  • How To Spot A False Flag Event

    Via Chuck Baldwin Live,

    A missionary friend of mine in Eastern Europe recently gave me a heads up regarding an excellent article written by Sebastian Swift entitled "5 Confirmed False Flag Operations And How To Spot Them In The Future."

    Swift writes,

    "The false flag phenomenon is distinctively modern and used as an ideological weapon to control populations with the fear of a manufactured enemy. They are used in ostensibly democratic systems where people believe they have inalienable rights. Such democratic systems–primarily the United States, Israel, and Great Britain–must shock people into sociopolitical and geopolitical consent and, as such, require sophisticated modern propaganda systems and advanced covert operations teams with highly proficient skills."

    Here are his telltale signs of a false flag operation:

    • There is an immediate comprehensive narrative, including a convenient culprit. Law enforcement, government agencies, and the mainstream media immediately proffer a narrative that completely explains the event and encourages citizens to tie their intellectual understanding of the tragedy to the emotions they experience. In his lecture at Contact in the Desert, [author and researcher] Richard Dolan noted that a distinguishing characteristic of a false flag operation is that the official narrative IS NOT questioned by the media. There are often legislative, ideological and sociopolitical power plays waiting in the wings, which the government can immediately implement.
    • The official narrative has obvious domestic and geopolitical advantages for the governing body. The Bush administration used 9/11 to usher in the War on Terror, which has served as a lynchpin for countless civil liberty infringements by the national security state, including ubiquitous domestic surveillance and indefinite detention.
    • The narrative behind the attack serves to leverage emotions like fear, as well as patriotism, in order to manufacture consent around a previously controversial issue. For example, many of the recent domestic terror attacks, including the Aurora [and Orlando] shooting[s], have exacerbated and reinforced advocacy of gun control legislation.
    • Military training drills and police drills occur on the day of and very near the attack itself, causing confusion to obscure eye witness testimony and allowing orchestrators to plant both patsies, disinformation and backup operatives. This is no small point. An incredible percentage of major domestic or international terror attacks have involved simultaneous "training drills.” This list includes, but is not limited to, the infamous NORAD drills of 9/11, the 7/7 London Bombings, the 2011 Norway shooting, the Aurora shooting, Sandy Hook, and the Boston Marathon. Though none of the aforementioned events can be confirmed or denied without a doubt, they bear a striking resemblance to previous false flag attacks and should be looked at with an investigative eye.

    It's time for those of us who have been reluctant to consider the possibility that our own government (and the governments of Israel and Great Britain) could actually be complicit in domestic terrorism in order to further a nefarious agenda to at least stop accepting the government and media’s version of these tragedies at face value. For the most part, the mainstream media is little more than a propaganda ministry for the federal government. We haven’t seen true objective investigative journalism since before the death of John F. Kennedy.

    Granted, not every national tragedy is part of a government conspiracy–and there is a plethora of "conspiracy nuts" out there to whom EVERYTHING is a conspiracy and through which we must wade to try to ascertain the truth. These people make it difficult for all of us. The Internet has provided the Chicken Littles of the world with an opportunity to play journalist. And their “everything's-a-conspiracy” rants only serve to mask the true conspiracies and turn the average John Doe away from the truth. That’s why I believe that many of these “conspiracy-everywhere” Internet bloggers are actually PART OF THE CONSPIRACY. Their job is to make genuine whistleblowers and researchers look like conspiracy “kooks.” Then, of course, there are genuine kooks out there, too.

    Regardless, the similarities and "coincidences" of many of these national tragedies are just too numerous for rational people to ignore. I believe Mr. Swift's analysis is very intelligent, coherent, and plausible.

    Our Founding Fathers believed their government (the British Crown) was deliberately conspiring against them. Thomas Jefferson said as much in our Declaration of Independence:

    “Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.”

    Read it again: “But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a DESIGN to reduce them under absolute Despotism . . . .” Jefferson and the rest of America’s founders believed that there was a “design” (i.e, “plot,” “scheme,” or “conspiracy,” if you please) to “reduce them under absolute Despotism.” So, if you believe that government conspiracy is only for kooks, you must include America’s Founding Fathers in that group.

    Patrick Henry may have said it best:

    "We are apt to shut our eyes against a painful truth, and listen to the song of that siren, till she transforms us into beasts. Is this the part of wise men, engaged in a great and arduous struggle for liberty? Are we disposed to be of the number of those who, having eyes, see not, and having ears, hear not, the things which so nearly concern their temporal salvation?

     

    "For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth–to know the worst and to provide for it."

    I submit if we deliberately "shut our eyes against a painful truth," liberty is not long for this country. And there is plenty of blame to go around.

    Obviously, the “no conspiracy” group is contributing greatly to the demise of liberty by their unwillingness to even examine the evidence suggesting government conspiracies. Truly, they are shutting their eyes “against a painful truth.” And, unfortunately, this group is most prevalent among pastors, Christians, and churches.

    I find it incredible that people who supposedly study their Bibles are so completely blind to government conspiracies. The Old and New Testaments are replete with examples of government conspiracies. Jewish governments, especially, were notorious for conspiring against God’s prophets in the Old Testament and against Jesus and the Apostles in the New Testament. Plus, the New Testament plainly pictures the master conspirator, Satan, as being the “god of this world” and “the prince of the power of the air.” His offer to Christ on the Mount of Temptation to give Jesus the “kingdoms of the world” was NOT challenged by the Lord. In other words, Jesus didn’t dispute the fact that Satan controls many, if not most, of the world’s governments. The Book of Ephesians warns against the conspiracy of “principalities,” “powers,” “rulers of the darkness of this world,” and “spiritual wickedness in high places.” Every Bible commentator that I respect includes wicked civil magistrates within these personages. Yet when one brings up the possibility of government conspiracies to the average church member, he or she is treated as if they have the palsy.

    Nowhere is this attitude of the denial of conspiracies more evident than in the whole Muslim versus America façade. Almost no Christian leader seems to be able to see the “man behind the curtain” in this whole affair. They have absolutely NO concept of what the governments of the U.S., Great Britain, Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are surreptitiously doing to instigate and foment this “war with Islam.” (Of course, there is no war against the Islamic states of Saudi Arabia and Turkey; they are our “allies.”) Christians aren’t even willing to study the matter. Therefore, the devil–along with the evil miscreants inside Western governments that he controls–is able to go about his diabolical work completely undetected.

    But, in all fairness, the “everything's-a-conspiracy” group must also share culpability in our country’s demise. There are too many professing “patriots” who seem to have no honesty or objectivity whatsoever. To them, everything government does is bad whether it is or isn’t. And, of course, they, the so-called “patriots,” can do NOTHING wrong.

    For example, if a black kid in an inner city is unjustly killed by a police officer, these “patriots” say absolutely NOTHING. But if one of their “own” is justly killed by police, they scream “tyranny” and shout about the need for revolution. Such people seem to have no reasoning ability and no understanding of Natural Law. They are agenda driven as surely as are big-government toadies. In fact, some of these “patriot” Internet bloggers and radio broadcasters are no better than the mainstream media: they twist the truth in order to pander to the people who are supporting them financially. It’s not about principle; it’s not about truth; it’s not about the rule of law. It’s all about their financial success.

    When we only condemn injustice committed by government, while overlooking and condoning injustice committed by so-called “patriots,” we lose all credibility and integrity. Everything is not a conspiracy. Every policeman or federal agent is not a Jackboot. Sometimes there are real acts of violence committed by real deranged criminals with no help whatsoever from anyone–including anyone in government. And sometimes there are so-called “patriots” who are themselves evil, using the freedom movement for their own ulterior purposes. And, of course, there are well-intentioned people who sometimes do very foolish and unwise things. And only foolish and unwise people would condone and support foolish and unwise actions, even if they are well-intentioned.

    I totally agree with Sebastian Swift’s article that there are indeed false flag operations being perpetrated by rogue elements within government–including the governments of the United States, Great Britain, and Israel. I further agree that people need to honestly and objectively be alert for the identifying characteristics of these false flag operations. More than that, the American people need to begin holding our civil magistrates accountable for these operations, as they could not continue without the tacit support of our elected representatives and President.

    But what we do NOT need are phony “patriots” who do nothing but distract, confuse, and incite by calling everything a conspiracy and who themselves are guilty of unlawful conduct–unlawful conduct as defined by God and Natural Law. (This is why the ignorance and silence of America’s pulpits is such an egregious crime: people do not even know how to discern lawful and unlawful conduct because pastors are not teaching them these Biblical Natural Law principles.) Plus, I am personally convinced that many of these hot-headed so-called “patriots” are in reality government agent provocateurs who are deliberately trying to incite real patriots into doing something stupid.

    Again, I submit if we deliberately "shut our eyes against a painful truth," liberty is not long for this country. And that includes admitting when a tragedy is NOT a conspiracy. But it also means admitting when evidence suggests that it IS.

  • Morgan Stanley Explains One Big Reason Why Central Planners Can't Generate Any Inflation

    As China continues to weaken the Yuan, it's important to note the impact that it has on the inflation expectations of other economies, namely the US, Japan, and Europe. As central planners aggressively try to boost inflation, and in the meantime have created a stunning $11.7 trillion in negative yielding debt, China could be hindering that effort quite a bit.

    As Morgan Stanley points out, CNY has weakened over the last year or so versus the Euro, Yen, and Dollar and is helping to explain the continued undershoot of inflation in Japan and Europe – and we would add in the US.

    From MS

    The RMB decline has materialized mainly against the EUR and even more so against the JPY. This may explain the continued undershoot of inflation in Europe and Japan.

    MS goes on to note that the overcapacity in Asia (something we have discussed often) and a weaker currency will continue to lead to lower export prices, and thus dampen future inflation expectations, which can be seen in the US 5y5y inflation expectations. MS also observes that developed market inflation behavior is led by movements in Chinese prices, and the rally in global bonds will continue to push the USD higher, putting further downward pressure on prices.

    Moderate US growth together with overcapacity in Asia and a weaker RMB will likely result in lower export prices from Asia. Market-based US inflation expectations are now lower than April, supported by Michigan survey data, all despite commodity prices being generally higher. Post Brexit our rates strategy team remains long duration, which is further supported by this lacklustre inflation environment. Inflation expectations might be held back by falling import prices from economies that run spare capacity. Exhibit 23 shows that the recent DM inflation behaviour was actually led by the movements in Chinese prices. The rally in global bonds, particularly in the US, may actually push USD higher as foreign investors look for places with a relatively high yield.

    MS concludes by saying that deflationary pressures are likely to remain in place as overcapacity persists.

    Important for the outcome is the evaluation of global deflationary pressures, which may be primarily fed from Asia. Yes, China’s PPI has improved from -5.9%Y to -2.9%Y, but RMB has declined over the past couple of quarters at an annualized rate of 11%, suggesting that import price deliveries from China are currently falling by 5%. Importantly, deflationary pressures are likely to remain in place as overcapacity persists. Take for instance the steel sector, where production capacity has increased by 35 million tons as China progressed through its recent mini-cycle.

    Within the G10, Australia, New Zealand and Japan are most likely to see the most import pressure to the downside.

    * * *

    In summary, while Kyle Bass has the ultimate long-term endgame pegged, in the short-term, China will continue to systematically export deflation around the world, and continue to be a significant thorn in the side of central planners everywhere who are trying desperately to generate any type of meaningful inflation and salvage whatever is left  of their credibility.

    Source: Morgan Stanley

  • America Should Exit From NATO & The National Security State

    Submitted by Jacob Hornberger via The Future of Freedom Foundation,

    In its reporting on Brexit, the New York Times asks an interesting question: “Is the post-1945 order imposed on the world by the United States and its allies unraveling, too?”

    Hopefully, it will mean the unraveling of two of the most powerful and destructive governmental apparatuses that came out of the postwar era: NATO and the U.S. national-security state. In fact, although the mainstream media and the political establishment elites will never acknowledge it, the irony is that it is these two apparatuses that ultimately led to the Brexit vote:

    The Times points out:

    Refugees have poured out of Syria and Iraq. Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon have absorbed several million refugees. But it is the flow of people into the European Union that has had the greatest geopolitical impact, and helped to precipitate the British vote.

    But what was it that gave rise to that massive refugee crisis?

    The answer: It was the U.S. national-security state’s regime change operations in the Middle East, including NATO’s bombing campaign as part of its regime-change operation in Syria.

    What did U.S. and NATO officials think — that people would simply remain where they were so that they could get blown to bits with the bombs that were being dropped on them, by the U.S. assassination program, or by the massive civil-war violence that came as a result of the U.S. and NATO regime-change operations?

    People don’t ordinarily behave in that fashion. Most people prefer to live rather than die and will do anything they can to survive. That’s why those refugees fled to Europe—  to escape the horrific consequences of interventionism by NATO and the U.S. national security state in the Middle East.

    I wonder if deep down, those who are lamenting and groaning about the Brexit vote realize that: If there had been no U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq, no regime change in Libya, no U.S. and NATO bombing and interventionism in Syria, there wouldn’t have been a massive refugee crisis in Europe and, almost certainly, a rejection of Brexit by a majority of British voters.

    How’s that for dark irony?

    Like the U.S. national-security state, NATO is a Cold-War era governmental apparatus, one whose mission was ostensibly to protect western Europe from an attack by the Soviet Union, which was America’s and Britain’s World War II partner and ally.

    But as everyone knows, the Cold War ended more than 25 years ago. A question naturally arises: Why then didn’t NATO go out of existence once the Cold War was over?

    The following statement by the Times perfectly reflects how the mainstream media and the political establishment elites just don’t get it:

    NATO has rediscovered its purpose in the aftermath of Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. Yet the Baltic countries still worry whether the military alliance would truly defend them against Russian aggression, and the alliance has had trouble defining its role in fighting terrorism or dealing with the migrant flow.

    What the Times is insinuating is that NATO is just as necessary today to protect western Europe (and now eastern Europe) from Russian aggressiveness as it was during the Cold War era.

    But there is something wrong with that picture, something that the Times and the political establishment elites don’t want to focus on — that it was NATO and the U.S. national-security establishment that precipitated the crisis with Russia over Ukraine.

    After the Cold War ended, not only did NATO decide to remain in existence, it began absorbing Eastern European countries that had formerly been in the Warsaw Pact. When the expansionary efforts finally reached Ukraine, NATO strived to absorb that country as well, which it came very close to doing thanks to a pro-U.S. coup that had all the earmarks of a successful CIA regime-change operation. Absorbing Ukraine into NATO would have meant U.S. bases, troops, tanks, and missiles on Russia’s border and the U.S. takeover of Russia’s longtime military base in the Crimean port of Sevastopol.

    There was never any chance that Russia was going to permit that to happen, which led to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the onset of the Ukraine crisis.

    After all, imagine that the Warsaw Pact had remained in existence and had begun absorbing Cuba, Venezuela, Chile, Nicarargua, Guatemala, and Mexico, with aims of installing Russian military bases on Mexico’s border with the United States. What do you think the reaction among U.S. officials would have been to those provocative acts?

    But what do we get from the mainstream media and the political establishment elites? That NATO is just an innocent party, one that is a force for good in the world, rather than a corrupt Cold War dinosaur-like apparatus whose mission is to provoke crises in order to justify its continued existence.

    As I detail in my new ebook The CIA, Terrorism, and the Cold War: The Evil of the National Security State, it’s no different with the U.S. national-security apparatus that was also brought into existence to wage the Cold War against the Soviet Union and which fundamentally changed America’s government structure for the worse. After all, don’t forget: China and North Korea are national-security states as well. Totalitarian regimes are almost always national security states.

    So, why did U.S. officials graft a totalitarian apparatus to America’s federal governmental structure, without even the semblance of a constitutional amendment? They said that a temporary totalitarian apparatus was necessary to wage a cold war against the Soviet Union’s and China’s totalitarian communist regimes.

    In itself, that’s problematic, but one thing is certain: The Cold War is over. It ended more than a quarter-century ago. Rather than be dismantled, which is what should have happened back in 1989, the national-security state, having lost its official enemy with the end of the Cold War, decided to go into the Middle East and provoke trouble with invasions, occupations, sanctions, interventions, and regime-change operations. All that brought us anti-American terrorist attacks, the war on terrorism, a formal assassination program, a massive secret surveillance program, indefinite detention, torture, secret prison camps, and other dark things that characterize totalitarian and communist regimes.

    And yet the mainstream media and the political establishment elite just don’t get it: They see the national-security state as a protector and as a force for good in the world, rather than as a major purveyor of death, destruction, crises, chaos, and loss of liberty, peace, and prosperity.

    It’s time for Americans to do some real soul-searching. It’s time to do some fundamental post-World War II alterations here at home. A great place to begin would be a dismantling of both NATO and the national-security state. An American exit from these corrupt and expensive Cold War-era apparatuses would lead the way to freedom, peace, prosperity, and harmony with the world.

  • More 'Transitory' Non-flation: Child Care Costs Are Soaring

    As the middle class erodes in the US, we have pointed out the many things that have continued to financially squeeze what is left of The American Dream out of the average joe, from rent becoming increasingly unaffordable to healthcare premiums exploding higher. We now have another expense that is taking a toll financially on the average American family, and that is child care.

    Child care expenses have climbed nearly twice as fast as overall prices since the recession ended in 2009 the WSJ reports, and coupled with lackluster wage gains, families with young children are finding themselves stretched financially.

    As the WSJ points out, the cost of child care is so high that in 41 states, the cost of sending a 4 year old to full-time preschool exceeds 10% of a median family income, and full-time preschool is more expensive than the average tuition at public college in 23 states. Care for an infant even costs more than the average rent in 17 states.

    Since the recession ended in 2009, the cost of child care and nursery school has increased at a 2.9% annual average, outpacing overall inflation of 1.6% during that seven year period.

    According to the WSJ, it costs $245,340 to raise a child born in 2013 from birth to age 18, nearly five years worth of income for the median US household. By comparison, the cost of raising a child born in 2003 was $226,108 after adjusting for inflation.

    Looking at the breakdown of costs for middle income families from 1960 to 2013, education and child care costs have exploded higher.

    For Malki Karkowsky, child care costs account for almost a quarter of the family budget. Adding in rent for the family's Kensington, Md apartment, and more than half of her and her husband's month take-home pay is gone. Karkowsky has a 3 year old son and a daughter under the age of 1. "Thankfully, we can cover the cost of food and clothing, but not really the extras." Karkowsky said.

    The family aspires to buy a home, but saving is difficult, even after moving to a cheaper location. The move saved $350 a month, but that doesn't even cover a week of day care.

    According to the WSJ, an April Gallup poll found that 37% of Americans between 30 and 49, the age when many are raising children, said they didn't have enough money to live comfortably.

    Increased costs are a struggle for many families, especially due to the fact that adjusting for inflation, incomes are barely above pre-recession levels.

    Ironically, even the Federal Reserve admitted the inflation – which they can never seem to find anywhere – is higher for low income families.

    From the WSJ

    That presents a test for Federal Reserve officials who set economic policy based upon the average inflation rate experienced in the economy. A recent analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis found that households with low incomes, more household members or older household heads experience higher inflation on average – but concluded that any given individual’s inflation rate can be several percentage points different from the average rate.

     

    It speaks to the challenge the Fed faces in communicating about inflation,” Minneapolis Fed Director of Research Sam Schulhofer-Wohl said. “Even if average inflation is around 2%, you have to be aware that many households face price changes that are much higher or lower than inflation.”

    * * *

    We're stunned that the Federal Reserve even acknowledged that inflation is out there in any form, since it continuously ignores rent, student loans, health insurance, and now child care costs. Then again, it's not likely that the Fed will stop its actions that create those situations to begin with of course.

  • "Our Monetary Humpty-Dumpty Is Heading For A Great Fall" – Teetering On The Eccles Building Wall

    Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

    The Eccles Building trotted out Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer yesterday morning. Apparently his task was to explain to any headline reading algos still tracking bubblevision that things are looking up for the US economy again and that Brexit won’t hurt much on the domestic front. As he told his fawning CNBC hostess:

     “First of all, the U.S. economy since the very bad data we got in May on employment has done pretty well. Most of the incoming data looked good,” Fischer said. “Now, you can’t make a whole story out of a month and a half of data, but this is looking better than a tad before.”

    You might expect something that risible from Janet Yellen – she’s just plain lost in her 50-year old Keynesian time warp. But Stanley Fischer presumably knows better, and that’s the real reason to get out of the casino.

    What is happening is that after dithering for 90 months on the zero bound the Fed has run out the clock. The current business cycle expansion—as tepid as is was— is now clearly rolling over. So the Fed has no option except to sit with its eyes wide shut while desperately trying to talk-up the stock market.

    And that means happy talk about the US economy, no matter how implausible or incompatible with the facts on the ground. No stock market correction or sell-off of even 5% can be tolerated at this fraught juncture.

    That’s because the U.S. economy is so limp that a proper correction of the massive financial bubble the Fed and other central banks have re-inflated since March 2009 would send it careening into an outright recession. And that, in turn, would blow to smithereens all of the FOMC’s demented handiwork since September 2008, and indeed since Greenspan launched the era of Bubble Finance back in October 1987.

    So when Fischer used the phrase “the incoming data looked good”, he was doing his very best impersonation of Lewis Carroll’s version of Humpty Dumpty. “Good” is exactly what our monetary politburo says it is:

    “When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”

    The fact is, the “lesses” have it by a long shot, but the Fed cannot even whisper a word about the giant risks, challenges and threats which loom all across the horizon.

    So for the third time this century, a business cycle contraction will come without warning from the Fed. Once again the Kool-Aid drinking perma-bulls, day traders and robo-machines will be bloodied as they stampede for the exit ramps. But it is the main street homegamers, who have been lured back into the casino for the third time this century, that will suffer devastating losses yet another time.

    Indeed, if there were even a modicum of honesty left in the Eccles Building it would be warning about the weakening trends in the US economy, not cheerleading about fleeting and superficial signs of improvement.

    Likewise, it would acknowledge the drastic over-valuation of the stock, bond, real estate and other derivative financial markets and remind investors that a healthy capitalism requires a periodic purge of such excesses in order to check mis-allocation of resources and malinvestment of capital.

    Most importantly, it would flat out confess the inability of monetary policy—–even its  current extraordinary accommodation variant—–to ameliorate the structural and supply-side obstacles to a more robust rate of economic growth and wealth creation in the US.

    In that regard, it would especially abjure the hoary notion that an excess of monetary stimulus is warranted because fiscal policy and regulators, for example, are allegedly not holding up their side of the bargain.

    In fact, monetary stimulus is not the “only game in town”, as is often asserted; it’s the wrong game. Money printing is not a second best substitute for other pro-growth policies because it’s not pro-growth at all.

    At best, it shifts the incidence of economy activity in time, such as when cheap mortgage rates cause housing construction to be higher today and then lower in the future when rates normalize.

    But mainly monetary stimulus causes systemic mis-pricing of financial assets. It turns money and capital markets into gambling arenas where speculators capture huge unearned windfalls while the mainstream economy is deprived of growth and productivity inducing real capital investment.

    Thus, instead of dispensing sunny-side agit prop Friday morning, Fischer might have noted the startling anomaly that was occurring at the very moment of his CNBC appearance.

    To wit, the 10-year US Treasury note——the very benchmark of the entire global financial system—-had just kissed a record low yield of 1.38%. At the same moment, the futures market was signaling an open on the cash S&P 500 at 2110 or within 0.09% of its all-time high and at nosebleed PE ratio of 24X reported earnings.

    Not in a million years would an honest, healthy, stable and sustainable free market have produced that combination. Starring at CNBC’s on set monitors, Fischer was looking at a screaming warning sign that financial markets have become radically unhinged. Starring into the cameras, he lied through his teeth in order to perpetuate the Fed’s sunny-side narrative.

    Here’s the thing, however. The Fed’s primitive Keynesian models are all about quantity of economic factors and the short-run sequential change in the GDP and jobs data sets. There is not even acknowledgement of qualitative factors or how the “incoming data” aligns with historical trends.

    Nor does a positive quarter purchased at the certain expense of a sharp reversal a few periods down the road get discounted. The Fed model is all about sequential GDP gains——even if there are blatant indications that they are not sustainable or compatible with the prerequisites for healthy capitalist prosperity and stability.

    All of these considerations were evident in the incoming data releases on Friday and in recent days——the very items that Fischer insisted had gotten better from “a tad before”.

    Booming auto sales have been a pillar of the weak overall recovery since 2009, but even they came in for June down by a sharp 4.6% from prior year at 16.7 million light vehicles. Moreover, this was a continuation of the weakening pattern since last fall, and a clear indicator that the peak sales rate for this cycle is already in:

    But that’s not the half of it. Given population and household growth since the 2007 peak, 18 million units should be the floor of a healthy sustainable US economy, not a momentary peak, as is evident in the chart.

    And this point is made all the more salient given the qualitative factors behind the peak levels that were achieved late last year. To wit, the entire rebound from the 2008-2009 crisis lows was funded with debt, and much of it was issued to anyone who could fog a rearview mirror.

    That’s right. Since the auto cycle bottom in mid-2010, retail motor vehicle sales have rebounded at a $360 billion annual rate, whereas auto loans outstanding have risen by $355 billion.

    Moreover, the apparent low default rate of recent years was self-evidently misleading in the context of Bubble Finance. Owing to the collapse of new car sales between 2007 and 2011, there has been a sharp reduction in the supply of used cars, causing the resale value of the existing fleet to steadily rise.

    Rising used car prices, in turn, made it easy for even marginal consumers to refinance old loans into new vehicle purchases, thereby avoiding defaults. At the same time, artificially low interest rates enabled auto finance companies to finance loans and leases at exceedingly low but unsustainable monthly payment rates.

    So the auto contribution to GDP growth during the last few years had an unsustainable “virtuous circle” character. There was no reason, therefore, to believe these gains could be replicated permanently. In fact,  there was every reason to believe that the artificial Fed induced auto finance cycle would be eventually reversed, thereby generating substantial, off-setting “payback” down the road.

    That risk is now materializing. The entire “virtuous” but artificial auto finance cycle is reversing as a flood of used cars—–reflecting the booming sales of the last four years—–comes into the resale market.

    Consequently, used car prices are heading south, thereby undermining trade-in values and eligibility for new loans.  The index of used car prices is now down 5% from its recent peak, and based on past cycles has a long way down yet to go.

    Alas, downward trending used car prices will also means that default rates will be rising for the simple reason that underwater borrowers will not be able to refinance their “ride” into a new or more recent vintage used vehicle.

    Likewise, new car loan and lease finance will be shrinking because the estimated “residuals” on leases and collateral value on loans will be lower. That means loan-to-car price ratios will come down—just as trade-in values on existing vehicles are also dropping. The resulting financing gap means lower sales and production rates in the auto sector.

    In short, there has not been a healthy recovery of the auto industry owing to 90 months of ZIRP and the Fed’s massive money printing escapades. This misbegotten monetary stimulus has only generated a deformed auto financing cycle that is now reversing and which will soon be extracting its pound of payback.

    Needless to say, Fischer eschewed the opportunity to talk soberly about the headwinds facing the strongest sector of the recent recovery. And this is only illustrative. The same can be said of housing—where cheap mortgages have raised prices far more than output of new housing—and countless others.

    The recession will come, therefore, with the Fed flat-footed again and this time, out of dry powder, as well.

    Indeed, so thoroughly will the Fed be discredited when the market crashes again by 40% or 50% or more, that modern Keynesian central banking will be faced with an existential crisis.

    To use the metaphor, our monetary Humpty Dumpty is heading for a great fall, and all the Imperial City’s potentates and poobahs will not be able to put it together again.

    And that would be a very good thing.

  • "This Is The Capitulation Phase" – Why Treasury Yields Are About To Really Plunge

    While mom and pop investors and BTFDers (if not so much hedge and mutual funds and other “smart money“) have been delighted by the latest V-shaped surge in stocks, it has come as we have repeatedly shown…

     

    … at the expense of collapsing long-term yields as another central bank liquidity tsunami is priced in. In fact, early Friday both 10Y and 30Y US Treasury yields plunged to new all time lows, a signal which at any other time would suggest a deflationary tsunami is about to be unleashed, but in this case simply meant that another bout of central bank generosity was coming to prop up risky assets in the aftermath of Brexit.

    The problem is that while stocks can – for now – ignore this historic divergence, which has pushed the S&P back to just shy of all time highs while bond yields are at all time lows, one major market participant can no longer pretend to not notice what is going on. We are talking about pension funds, who according to Bank of America are about to “throw in the towel” and capitulate on the de-risking of their portfolios, unleashing the next major buying spree on the long end, in the process likely pushing the 10Y to 1% or even much lower.

    As BofA’s Shyam Rajan writes, bull flattening of yield curves is rarely good news to anyone – but defined benefit pension plans are most leveraged to this pain. According to the most recent Milliman estimate, the average funded ratio of the top 100 US corporate defined benefit pension plans already had dropped to 77% by end of April. Since then, 30y rates dropped another 50bp and corporate spreads have tightened. While the asset side has provided some relief given that equities are hanging on to the highs, we think it is safe to assume that funding ratios over the last month have now reached the lows seen in 2012 – a rather sobering thought given that the equity rally of 70% since then has meant nothing and has been subsumed by the rate decline. The dominant factor of pension funding gaps has been the move in rates, as Chart 2 makes clear.

    According to BofA there are five reasons why capitulation is more likely now.

    Talking about pension capitulation seems counterintuitive when funded ratios are at record lows on the heels of a significant decline in rates. After all, why would a pension manager hoping for mean reversion at the beginning of the year feel forced to throw in the towel at these levels? 10y rates have been here before, funding ratios have been this low before, and this is not the first time for a flight to quality out of Europe and Japan into the US. What makes this time different? We identify five reasons (three macro, two pension-specific) that make capitulation this time around much more likely:

    Here are the reasons:

    1. Longer term growth

    The key difference from a few years ago is the formalization of the “new normal” in the markets. Global estimates of neutral real rates are much lower, the Fed’s estimate of the long-run rate has dropped nearly 100bp, and the yield curve in itself sends a bleak message (Chart 2). While in 2013, 10y rates reached similar levels and the market pushed out the Fed nearly three years, it remained optimistic for the long run. Terminal rates were priced to be north of 3.5%, with forward inflation expectations above the Fed’s target. Today, every intermediate forward beyond 3y1y is 50-200bp lower than the lowest point in 2013. There is greater understanding that the yield moves are not temporary but a glaring reflection of the new normal across the globe

    2. Inflation expectations

    The inflation market signals the same pessimism. Chart 4 shows inflation expectations across global markets relative to central bank inflation targets. Zero on the chart indicates that the markets on average expect the central bank to hit its inflation target over 30 years, while negative indicates a miss to the target. Among the markets that priced-in positive inflation risk premia in late 2013, almost all now project  their central banks to miss their targets over 30 years.

     

    3. The gravitational pull of negative yields

    Any assumed lower bound for rates has been thrown out the window given the moves to negative rates. Nearly 33% of the BofAML Developed Market (DM) sovereign index now trades negative in yield, and the US makes up nearly half of the positive yielding assets available to investors. The long end of the US curve remains cheap to European and Japanese investors (on unhedged or partially hedged basis) who are getting pushed out of their domestic sovereign markets because of QE. Fundamentally, the macro rationale for the ECB and BoJ to stop QE is years away, and flow-wise, the safe haven scarcity problem motivating flows into the US is here to stay.

    4. Variable PBGC premiums

    The penalties for underfunding have increased markedly since 2012 and are scheduled to increase even more. Based on the latest budget act, for each $1,000 of underfunding, variable rate Pension benefit Guarantee Corporation (PBGC) premiums increase from $30 to $33 in 2017, $37 in 2018, and $41 in 2019. Nearly 33% of the BofAML Developed Market (DM) sovereign index now trades negative in yield Essentially, the top 100 corporate defined benefit pension plans will be paying at least ~$20bn/year in variable premiums by 2019 if current levels of underfunding remain.

    5. Borrowing to solve the pension tension

    The greatest impediment to pension risk transfers (used loosely as a term for offloading some or all of the pension risk to an insurance company who then fund them with annuities) is the need to raise cash to bring funding ratios to par before passing it on to the insurance company. In this regard, low corporate bond yields (and ECB corporate buying) actually could help. Consider the BofAML Corporate Master index – the effective yield of single A rated corporates is 2.52% and that of BBBs is 3.4%. The relative tradeoff now between issuing debt vs paying 3-4% of variable premiums is increasingly attractive – corporates could consider issuing debt to make pensions whole and probably come out with a net positive after tax savings on debt interest (Chart 6). While issuing debt to buyback stock has been a popular strategy, issuing debt to make pensions whole could be the next trend in fixing balance sheet risk. A broader discussion of this trade-off is beyond the scope of our piece, but it reinforces the point that despite wider funding gaps, there is likely a greater incentive or larger fear that is likely to motivate pension de-risking in the coming months.

     

    To be sure, the current collapse in yields has precedented: in 2011, rates declined more than 100bp, curves flattened by more than 75bp, the large scale downgrade of European bonds left Treasuries as the only choice, and there was greater acceptance that 10y yields probably wouldn’t go back to 4% anytime soon. This move prompted significant pension de-risking in 2012 – evident in the two large risk transfer trades (GM and Verizon), widening long-end swap spreads, and significant increase in Treasury holdings of defined benefit pension plans (Chart 7).

    As Bank of America summarizes, a capitulation at this point seems inevitable:

    Today, all of the above is amplified. Treasuries make up nearly 50% of the positive-yielding DM sovereign bonds; curves are 100bp flatter; and there is a greater likelihood that 10y yields probably won’t go back to even 2.5%. We would expect a bigger capitulation by pension managers in the coming months/years.

    How big of a market are we talking about here in case there indeed is a capitulation be? Well, in a word – massive. It’s a $3 trillion trade.

    For the rates market, the significance of this acceptance phase by pensions cannot be understated, in our opinion. A $3 trillion industry running a $500 billion funding gap and a significant duration gap waking up to reality is likely to have major implications for the market. The nature of the de-risking is less important but could amplify the impact. In the simplest de-risking scenario, pension managers would stop underestimating the perceived lower bound for US rates and be more aggressive in using rate sell-offs to close duration gaps. In the extreme case, entire pensions could be offloaded from corporate balance sheets to insurance companies (increasingly like the UK, Exhibit 1)–generating significant demand for long-end duration during such transactions. One only needs to look at the long end of the UK rates market to see the significance of pension demand (Chart 9). Note that the UK regulation on inflation protection for pensions is more stringent, leaving the impact primarily on real yields. A similar move in the US is likely to be more evenly divided between reals and breakevens.

     

    The final question: what will be the market impact of the capitulation:

    Flatter curves, positive sign for swap spreads & long-end balance sheet trades. Ultimately, the de-risking of pensions whether via a full risk transfer or not would have significant implications for the rates market. Defined benefit pension holdings of USTs still stands at a rather low 6% of total assets (Chart 8)

    • Rates: It would add to the long list of buyers (Japanese, European investors, index shorts) eager to add duration on any modest sell-off in US rates. This would limit any sell-off in rates to short-lived, positioning-led squeezes higher in yields, following which a flood of demand would take over. Active hedging by pensions also
      is likely to keep receiver skew in longer tails rich.
    • Curve: Any sizable de-risking is likely to be a flattener. Even if corporations issue to shore up pensions, which then subsequently de-risk, the net impact would likely be a flattener, in our view. This is because issuance would be skewed toward the belly of the curve where demand dominates, while the de-risking flow happens in the long end of the curve. While this is a long-term theme, it should help our tactical flattening call on the curve.
    • Spreads and strips: Long-end demand from pensions also would be the welcome sign of relief the long end of the spread and coupon-strip curve need. The lack of consistent real money demand combined with $150bn in 30y UST supply every year and lack of dealer appetite to police these relationships has in short been the primary driver of tightening of long-end spreads and cheapening of coupon strips. Some 46bp of extra yield in USTs over swaps and 25bp of extra yield in c-strips over p-strips should look extremely attractive to investors settling for below-2% yields.

    What all of this means in simple, numeric terms for the two securities everyone is most familiar with, namely the 10Y and the 30%? It means look for the 10Y Treasury to drop under 1% while the 30Y plunges to 1.50% or lower, as the entire world slowly but surely turn Japanese, where incidentally, the world’s largest pension fund – the GPIF – just lost $43 billion in the past quarter as a result of the failure of Abenomics and its hail mary attempt to offset billions in underfunding using a monetary policy gimmick. Similar losses are coming to pension funds much closer to you next.

  • When Government Controls All Wealth

    Authored by Bonner & Partners' Bill Bonner (annotated by Acting-Man's Pater Tenebrarum),

    Sliding Into Absurdity

    Stock markets continued their rebound to almost erase all Brexit losses. London’s FTSE 100 Index is above Brexit levels but Europe’s equivalent of the Dow, the Euro Stoxx 50, remains lower.

     

    brexit-2

    No wonder the Dragon and his partners in crime flooded the EU banking system with “money” this past week…

     

    Investors have realized Brexit isn’t the end of the world. First, because they think it won’t really happen. After all, elites can fix elections, buy politicians, and control public policy… surely, they can fix this!

    A letter in the Financial Times reminds us that Swedish voters cast their ballots against nuclear power in 1980. The government just ignored them, doubling nuclear power generation over the next 36 years.

    Second, because investors see the panic over Brexit leading to more spirited intervention by central banks! The EZ money floodgates – already wide open – are to be opened wider.

    The U.S. has its QE program on hold, but Europe’s scheme is gushing like Niagara. Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank buys $90 billion a month in bonds. And he’s not only buying government bonds; he’s buying corporates, too.

     

    Less Than Zero

    In Japan, always a trendsetter, the Bank of Japan has bought so many bonds it has pushed Japanese government bond yields below zero – out to more than 45 years on the yield curve!

    In other words, you can now lend to the bankrupt Japanese government until 2051 with no hope of making a single yen, nominally, on your investment. Now, with bonds stacking up in their vaults, the Japanese feds are diversifying. They’re buying exchange-traded funds (ETFs), too.

     

    JGB

    JGB weekly over the past 5 years….still a widow-maker! – click to enlarge.

     

    Via its ETF purchases, the BoJ buys about $30 billion of Japanese stocks a year. This has made it a top 10 shareholder in about 90% of the companies listed on the country’s Nikkei 225 Index.

    Apparently, the BoJ announced it would buy a particular kind of politically correct ETF, even before such an investment existed. This led to a rush to meet the demand (no matter how looney) to create exactly the ETF the Japanese feds were looking for.

    So now, the phony money created by the BoJ buys phony ETFs created by the sushi equivalent of Wall Street – solely for the purpose of letting the Samurai feds put more phony money into the financial sector. The ETF then must buy politically fashionable companies, many of which probably wouldn’t exist were the fix not in so deeply.

    Result?  The Bank of Japan – not private investors – is the proud owner of stocks and bonds that private investors didn’t want, bought at prices they wouldn’t pay. The whole show is too goofy for words. But words are all we’ve got!

     

    goofy

    Meet Goofy.

     

    Capitalism Without Capital

    “It is just a matter of time,” says a friend writing from Switzerland, “before the feds own all our assets. They’re determined to keep prices high and they have unlimited resources.”

    Yes, stocks, bonds, old copies of Mad Magazine… everything will be owned by the government. Then our liberty will be complete. We will have nothing… and nothing to lose.

    We will have become what leading German post-war economist Wilhelm Röpke had anticipated: the “stable fed” animals that depend on their masters to keep them going.

     

    Bakers Dairy Farm in Haselbury Plucknett

    Moooo!

     

    At last, we will have the kind of capitalism another economist – Karl Marx – dreamed of: capitalism without private capital. The Deep State will control all our wealth.

    We will go to college on federal loans… we will drive cars, leased of course, at federally subsidized low rates… we will live in houses mortgaged by federal mortgage lender Fannie Mae… with the mortgage rates pushed down by its fellow manipulator, Freddie Mac… we will work for companies that depend on the Fed’s EZ money financing…and, of course, our medical care will be in the hands of the feds… and our retirement finances too.

    Cradle to grave – Chapter 1 to Chapter 11 –  all on central bank credit.

    Each dollar in the private sector is either earned or borrowed. The feds and their crony friends get their money for free. Gradually, they own more and more assets, while the rest of the people owe more and more debt.

     

    Sacred Tether

    But wait –  let us look again at the maze of dots. How did this happen? Yesterday, we saw that price is not the same as value. If you want to increase prices, all you have to do is spread around some cash. Drop money from helicopters, especially in bad neighborhoods, and prices will soar. But value?

    Here is where it gets interesting.  Because when you drop money from helicopters, values tend to drop, too. What shoemaker will still take pride in a making a good pair of walking boots, when his money floats down from Heaven with no effort at all?

     

    helicopter-money-drop-cartoon-clip-art-lewes-delaware-RKVC-1024x728

    Manna from heaven… we’ll all be rich! As Keynesian economists will confirm, capital is a self-replicating blob, that only waits for us to “spend”!

     

    What company will still sweat and strain to produce the best possible products, when its revenues no longer come from demanding customers? What analyst sharpens his pencil to find the best companies to invest in, when there is no longer any connection between money and quality performance.

    In rich neighborhoods or in poor ones, giving away money causes trouble. Quality declines, as fewer and fewer people are willing to put in the time and trouble to produce it. And why should they? The ancient and sacred tether, connecting quality to wealth, effort to reward, has been severed.

    Want to know why the average American man earns less today than he did 40 years ago? Want to know how the rich got so filthy rich? Want to know why, as the Financial Times put it yesterday, Hillary is afraid of a “populist contagion”?

     

    MILKING THE ECONOMY DRY, OBAMACARTOON

    Something went wrong along the way… but what?

     

    The feds got out the knife in 1971. They changed the money system itself. They severed the link between gold and the dollar – and between value and price. It was so subtle almost no one objected… and so clever almost no one saw what it really meant.

    It took us more than 40 years to figure it out. And even now, the dots reveal a pattern, but it is indistinct… hard to see… and easy to misinterpret. Most people see only the symptoms, the boils. the fever, the night sweats – and the daytime delusions:

    The masses voting for Brexit or Donald. Interest rates falling to 5,000-year lows. The gap between rich and poor opening wider and wider. What is the cause?

    Stay tuned…

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Today’s News 2nd July 2016

  • Answer This!

    By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

    I’ve been inundated with questions from many of you following the recent events. Brexit, that is, not Justin Timbertrouser’s latest antics. While I can’t publish all of them, I’ve selected what I think are some of the most important ones.

    A lot of questions were related to positioning during and post Brexit. I hate to mention it as I may choose to trade out of whatever I mention at any given moment so please bare that in mind.

    • Sold a bit of GLD on Thursday and will look to buy back after the shock/euphoria subsides.
    • Long GBP/EUR and USD/EUR.
    • Net short equities.
    • Lightened up by 25% on short Spanish 10-year and long US 10-year. (hint: you get paid to do it and are synthetically short EUR which I’m OK with).

    Ok, onto the questions…

    “By the way, your latest article ” World out of whack” was great. I believe the next crisis country will be Italy with their massive banking problems. The Euro is simply too strong for them and in the old days they were able to compete against Germany by constantly depreciating the Lira.


     Best,

    H.”

    Excellent points on the historical situation with Germany and Italy, and pinpointing the currency aspect.

    Not everyone agreed with Italy as it came in a close second to France, as you can see below from the poll I ran in the recent World Out Of Whack.

    Wow-Poll-EU

    We’re actually dealing with two drifferent problems here – the EU and the currency. Let’s take a closer look at both.

    The EU was originally designed to stop Europeans killing each other (something they’ve been doing for centuries) and to foster closer ties between European countries by eliminating barriers to trade. As the old adage goes, “When goods don’t flow, bullets do.” And this was at the core of the EU idea.

    Giuseppe always loved BMWs, didn’t care for sauerkraut (I don’t blame him), and – while being infuriated with Hans who is as punctual as Big Ben – saw no reason not to make the buying of his BMW any easier. 

    Hans, on the other hand, still believed that all Italian woman were smoking hot, all Italian men were plumbers, and though he couldn’t understand how pasta could be eaten everyday without causing some sort of digestive problem, he welcomed the idea of shooting down to Puglia for a weekend’s sun – sans silly visa requirements.

    So why not allow Hans and Giuseppe to manage all this with less friction?

    Increasingly though, the EU has become a barrier to trade rather than an enabler. Today there are restrictions and laws governing how bendy a banana must be. Not bendy enough and it doesn’t meet regulation. Cucumbers can’t be too bendy, on the other hand. Not straight enough and they too are in the tip.

    Then there is the famous case of the EU directive stating that water does in fact NOT hydrate you. Retailers of water were banned from suggesting water would in fact hydrate you.

    Prunes are not laxatives (contrary to anyone who tests the theory), turnips are not allowed to be called swedes, and eggs are not allowed to be sold by the dozen. Instead, they must be sold by weight only.

    Powerful vacuum cleaners are banned. You see, they chew up too much energy. Diabetics should be banned from driving and the list goes on and on. It’s enough to make blood shoot out of your eyes.

    When looking at the sheer weight of unexplainable laws, you’re left thinking that only a mentally ill person could have put them together. And you’d be right.

    The European Parliament is mentally ill and though Britain’s exit from this “fustercluck” will have immediate negative consequences, I’m all for a controlled demolition rather than a supernova which is where the EU is most assuredly headed.

    The single currency, on the other hand, was always as terrible an idea as walking through Damascus with an “I hate Muslims” T-shirt would be. You just knew it would cause pain and suffering.

    Each European country experiences unique business and credit cycles which are often independent of one another. They always had a shock absorber, allowing for economies to adjust to the economic bumps of the business cycle. That shock absorber was their own currency.

    Let’s use an admittedly simplistic example.

    Let’s say that Greece becomes uncompetitive in terms of trade. It would then experience weakening corporate profits, leading to less investment, leading to higher unemployment. This could then be met with weakening the currency, which in turn leads to lower operating costs, higher profit margins, renewed employment growth, and a renewal in investment.

    The reason Greece is clocking a 51% youth unemployment and Spain a 45% youth unemployment rate is directly tied to the fact that the currency as a shock absorber has been taken away. Instead, these countries are forced into a straight jacket where rather than a weak currency they get a persistent weak economy.


    Ironically this economic pain – left unchecked and unresolved – has the potential to cause rising nationalism as I discussed earlier this week. At the extremes we’re talking war.

    Here’s the next one:

    “Chris, thanks for the ton of really insightful material you put out.

     

    I have a question: you first mentioned to buy Bitcoin and it was at $380 or thereabouts I think. Then you put out that report on Bitcoin being a way to play the devaluation in the yuan and it was at like $480. I ignored you at $380 and again at $480 (I’ve a habit of doing this though I’m determined not to repeat it again). I watched in awe as it rocketed to recent highs and just yesterday it collapsed again back to $599. Have I missed the boat?


    CK”

    Well, it’s back up at $674 as I’m writing this which simply demonstrates how volatile it is.

    Think about it like this: Bitcoin market cap is about $10bn. Around $3bn of that is reportedly owned by founders and early adopters, leaving around $7bn actively traded. Of that, over 80% is traded in China which is a black box.

    It is one reason I’m paying a lot of attention to China and goes back to my devaluation argument.

    One other thing to consider…

    Do you know of any other asset with a market cap of say $6bn which has anywhere near the airtime that Bitcoin has?

    Right now the ability for institutional money to get into Bitcoin is still somewhat limited. It is clear that market acceptance amongst the suited and booted is on the rise so it’s not just Molly dealers and kiddy fiddlers who are using it. If we get a real ETF in this space watch out!

    Bottom line: I think Bitcoin either goes to zero or it goes supernova. I’ve spoken at length around the geopolitical environment which is highly conducive to Bitcoin doing well.

    Next question…

    “I think you is a shill and dead wrong on the USD. Getting sick of you dollar bulls. Do you secretly work for Goldman Sachs or other jews? That turd is going to wipe out like all the other currencies before it and you helping people line up to be shot. Screw you. I hope you go down with it.”

    I didn’t respond to this clown but I did remove the idiot from my mailing list. Aside from the vitriolic response and the fact the guy needs to be fed a brick, there are some key points any sane investor should consider as the only arbiter at the end of the day is the market.

    Whenever I look at any market I try to form an opinion based on data sans opinions. I always find I come down with a basic viewpoint and I know it’s biased in some regard. It might be bullish or it might be bearish. The next step is to find credible people who think the OPPOSITE. 

    The reason this works for me is due to something called first confirmation bias. It’s been proven that the first conclusion we come to is very difficult to remove, and the longer we hold that viewpoint the greater the risk of us identifying ourselves with it.

    The risk is that once you’ve reached a certain viewpoint you do what fully 90% of people do – you seek confirmation. You’ll find it, I assure you. If you want to believe that Elvis is alive and you search for evidence to support this viewpoint, you’ll find others agreeing with you. They may be mentally ill or 4 but you’ll find them. 

    So yes, right now I’m bullish on the dollar and I don’t at this point in time work for anyone at all. As for Jews, why are they any different from Armenians, for example?

    Capitalist Exploits is not a home to xenophobic bigots or people who wear their socks with sandals (kidding). So if you’re reading this and are a xenophobic bigot with a small brain and a large mouth, do me a favour and close this page please.

    Otherwise, you’re welcome to stay with us and tell your friends to come and join us – even if they wear their socks with sandals.

    Onto the penultimate one:

    “Hi Chris,


     

    This is neither feedback nor a new market topic but more just requesting your thoughts.

    For context, I’m an agricultural commodity trader, and started trading macros with my own money early last year, so quite far from being an expert or even very knowledgeable. That said, just read your WOW for this week, and I’ve been thinking for a while that the global bond market is the single most out of whack thing across markets right now.


     

    The way I see this playing out, I think there is further contagion in the EU, China is not looking too good, and between everything don’t think the fed raises rates. That’s not bullish the dollar but think that will be overwhelmed by dollar buying on flight to safety. So, back to bonds, I guess my question is, what might trigger the bond bubble to burst?

     

    Don’t think risk to shorting them here is that high but you simply never know with central banks. Also think long gold covers every scenario that might potentially play out. But just curious on what actually triggers a breakdown in the bond market. Sorry to baldly ask a question without much contribution from my side, but I really don’t have much experience in this. Would greatly appreciate any insights you might have.


    Thanks,

    K”

    I could write an entire chapter of articles on this so let me try be brief. I’ll be covering many of these aspects over the coming weeks and months.

    Contagion in EU and China looking bad are in my mind bullish the dollar. Why would this be bearish dollars?

    Also, if you look at global yields right now the US 10-year sports a higher yield than the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.

    Right there is a fantastic arbitrage opportunity which I’ve been plying for the last 3 weeks and one which you get paid for. Carry is on your side: short European bonds and long US bonds allows you to get paid for the trade. You do take currency risk but I’m struggling to find reasons why I’d be bullish the Euro.

    As to bonds, too much to talk about so let me cover that in future missives.

    And the final question:

    “You mentioned in your very inspiring post on change that you’re not investing in private equity anymore. Can you provide more thoughts on why?”

    I see too many risks for my own liking given the global macro landscape. I’ll still be doing very specific private deals. I mentioned some questions to consider on this topic in my article last week but here’s some further bullet points to consider, namely a shift in risk capital.

    If you’re a young startup company looking to raise capital without a clear path to revenue (not growth) then you’re dead. Forget it. I’m not interested.

    Funding companies which will need to be going back to the trough in another 12 months elevates the risk MASSIVELY for me. And right now VCs are still living in la-la land because many are 20-somethings who don’t understand global macro capital trends.

    After having done over 50 deals and diligencing hundreds more, I can promise you that every company underestimates its time to revenue, overestimates its revenues, underestimates its cash burn, and overestimates its ability to raise additional cash.

    Structuring and knowing what risks you’re taking is absolutely critical and never more so going forward into the macro environment lying before us.

    Add to this the kind of valuations that are still legacy 2014 and you’ve got a lot of new deals which will be entering a market they don’t actually understand.

    Additionally with the type of asymmetry being exhibited in the macro space and the opportunities available everything for me is relative.

    Other than that I’m very focussed on doing less and having time to think every day.

    This requires elimination of non-essentials and private investing is incredibly time consuming if you’re doing it properly. Sure, you can throw money at a bunch of deals that you’ve perused the pitch decks on but proper due diligence takes months, not a couple hours on the sofa.

    And with that I wish you all have an awesome weekend and I will see you next week. I’m off to take my wife on a date.

    – Chris

    “Women need a reason to have sex, men just need a place.” – Billy Crystal

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  • Why The Collapse Of The U.S. Economic & FInancial System Has Accelerated

    SRSrocco Report

    By the SRSrocco Report,

    The collapse of the U.S. economic and financial system accelerated this year, thus pushing the country closer to a third-world status.  Most Americans are unaware of the dire consequences facing the nation, so they continue to believe business as usual will continue indefinitely.

    Unfortunately, lousy reporting by the Mainstream media along with the public’s denial and delusional thinking is a recipe for disaster for most Americans over the next several years.

    The U.S. economy is being propped up by a great deal of monetary printing, Fed stock and bond purchases and extreme leverage in all areas of the market.  While these policies have given the “ILLUSION” of continued prosperity, or at best a sustainable slow growing economy, the debt now in the system is unsustainable.

    Still to this day, most investors (including precious metals investors) do not understand the real reason for the massive increase in U.S. Federal debt.  They believe the debt was either increased to enslave Americans or to fund continued economic growth.  While the second reason is more accurate, they still fail to understand the “ROOT CAUSE” of the debt increase.

    The Massive Increase In U.S. Debt Tied To Falling U.S. Oil Production & Rising Oil Prices

    This chart puts the huge increase in total U.S. debt in perspective:

    Federal Debt vs Peak Oil

    The annual increase in U.S. debt was very small up until the 1970’s.  This was due to the peak of cheap U.S. domestic oil production.  U.S. oil production peaked in 1970 at about 10 million barrels per day (mbd).  That year, total U.S. debt was $370 billion.  That’s hilarious, because the annual deficits today are larger than the entire U.S. debt in 1970.

    As the oil price increased in the 1980’s and as U.S. oil production declined, total U.S. debt continued to increase.  However, in the late 1990’s, the U.S. debt leveled off.  This was due to the price of oil declining below $20, reaching $14 in 1998 and $19 in 1999.  In 1999, U.S. debt had increased to $5.4 trillion.

    Then as the price of oil increased from $30 in 2000 to nearly $100 in 2008, total U.S. debt nearly doubled to $10.5 trillion.  In addition, U.S. domestic oil production declined nearly 4 million barrels per day from 1985 to 2008.  This also had a negative impact on U.S. debt levels.

    ————————————

    IF YOU ARE PAYING MORE THAN 30 BASIS POINTS A YEAR TO STORE PRECIOUS METALS, YOU ARE PAYING TOO MUCH!!!  If you haven’t checked out our new  new PRECIOUS METALS INVESTING section or our new LOWEST COST PRECIOUS METALS STORAGE page on our SRSrocco Report site, I highly recommend you do. 

    ———————————–

    While it’s true that the cost of energy is only a small part of U.S. GDP,  its impact is multiplied when the U.S. economy and government try to provide the same standard of living as it did prior to 1970.  Furthermore, the EROI- Energy Returned On Invested of U.S. oil production declined significantly since the 1950’s.  The EROI of U.S. oil and gas production in 1970 was 30/1, however shale oil comes in at a low EROI of 5/1.

    Thus, the falling EROI means less profitable barrels to provide the same (higher) standard of living as Americans enjoyed before 1970.

    The U.S. Economy Is Propped Up By Massive Govt Spending

    In fiscal 2015, the United States Govt. (supposedly) spent $3.8 trillion on mandatory, discretionary funding and interest on the debt.  Total revenues were only $3.18 trillion, so the U.S. Govt had to borrow $583 billion to pay its bills:

    U.S. Govt Budget

    These next two charts break down the “Mandatory” and “Discretionary” spending:

    Mandatory Spending

    Discretionary Spending

    The $3.8 trillion in U.S. Govt spending is 21% of total U.S. GDP for fiscal 2015.  Even though the U.S. Govt spends a lot of money on many different areas, let’s focus on Social Security and Medicare-Health.  These two parts of the mandatory spending equal $2.2 trillion of the $3.8 trillion total Federal budget.  This is nearly 58% of the total budget.

    That $2.2 trillion spent in the U.S. economy has a “MULTIPLIER EFFECT”.  This is the reason the Fed and U.S. Govt won’t allow a collapse in stock, bond or real estate values.  The revenues collected by the U.S. Govt depend on elevated stock, bond and real estate prices.  Once these start to collapse, then revenues plummet causing the annual budget deficit to balloon higher.  If the budget deficit was $583 billion (that’s what the Govt reports) in 2015 ,then what happens when the market cracks and highly inflated stock, bond and real estate prices collapse?

    Well, we already experienced that in 2008.  Here is the most recent update of the U.S. Retirement Market as of Q1 2016:

    U.S. Retirement Market

    The total U.S. Retirement Market collapsed 21% from 2007 to 2008 ($17.7 trillion down to $13.9 trillion).  The current U.S. Retirement market is valued at $24.1 trillion.  When the U.S. broader markets finally crack, I forecast a 50% decline in the U.S. Retirement market in the first wave.  This could take place over a few years.  A 50% decline would put the U.S. Retirement market at $12 trillion, a little less than what it was in 2008.

    This is highly likely as the markets have been propped up with a lot of leverage since 2009.  A 50% decline in the stock and real estate prices will cause serious trouble to the entire U.S. economy and financial system.

    …… THIS IS THE CRASH WE NEVER COME OUT OF.

    U.S. Financial & Economic Market Suffered Two Big Blows

    As I mentioned in the beginning of the article, ENERGY has been the key in pushing the U.S. debt to record levels.  Now, you would think that the huge increase of domestic U.S. shale oil production would have helped stabilize the annual increase of U.S. debt….. IT DIDN’T.  Actually, it did the opposite.

    Unfortunately, the addition of U.S. shale oil production came at a huge cost.  It only added more overall debt to the system.  Even though the price of oil remained above $100 for three years, most of the shale oil companies made no real profit.  Which means, the increase of U.S. domestic oil production from 5 mbd in 2008 to a peak of 9.6 mbd last year, did nothing to keep the U.S. debt from rising.

    This was due to two reasons:

    1) The U.S. Govt continued to print money while suffering even larger annual budget deficits to provide a standard of living for Americans that it really couldn’t afford.
    2) The EROI- Energy Returned On Invested of U.S. shale oil production of 5/1 was way too low to sustain our modern economy that needs something north of 12/1.

    While the situation for the United States became even worse as domestic oil production surged higher, the consequences will be even more dire as oil production plummets over the next several years.

    Top Two Shale Oil Fields Suffer Hugh Production Losses

    The top two shale oil fields in the U.S. suffered huge production losses over the past year… especially over the last six months.

    The Bakken Oil Field in North Dakota was touted to make the U.S. energy independent.  While the author of this article never believed the hype by the U.S. Energy Industry, many Americans fell for this delusion.  As the price of oil declined on top of exceedingly high decline rates, Bakken oil production has dropped significantly.

    How much??

    Bakken Oil Losses

    If we go by the minimum production between August 2014 and December 2015, the Bakken is down 137,000 barrels per day (bd).  While the Bakken achieved a much higher production peak, I am going by the minimum oil production achieved in that time-frame.

    Thus, the Bakken will now lose 4.1 million barrels of oil in a month and 50 million barrels in a year compared to what it was producing last year.  A loss of 50 million barrels in a year from the North Dakota industry is a BIG DEAL.  That being said, the Bakken will continue to lose production going forward so the annual production loss will be even greater than 50 million barrels.  At $50 a barrel, North Dakota is losing $2.5 billion a year.

    NOTE:  A small part of the Bakken is located in Montana, but this doesn’t really change the overall situation for North Dakota all that much.

    Now, if you think the loss of production from the Bakken is bad, you need to take a look at the disaster taking place at the Eagle Ford Field in Texas:

    Eagle Ford Oil Losses

    The Eagle Ford has lost 300,000 barrels per day since its minimum production between Aug 2014 and Dec 2015.  That’s one hell of a lot of oil.  In Dec 2015, the Eagle Ford was producing 1,508 thousand barrels per day (1.508 mbd) and is forecasted to decline to 1,212 thousand barrels per day in June.  This is a 20% decline in six months.

    Thus, the Eagle Ford will now lose 9.1 million barrels of oil per month and a whopping 110 million barrels annually.  Again, this is only if production stabilizes.  That figure continues to increase as Eagle Ford production continues to decline.

    While some individuals believe the decline in U.S. shale oil production was due to falling oil prices, this was only part of the reason.  According to the energy analysts that I have been reading, these two shale oil fields were going to peak between 2015-2017, even with higher oil prices.  So, yes… the low oil price forced the peak a little sooner than later.

    What happens as U.S. shale oil production continues to decline??  Well, it puts more pressure on the U.S. energy sector that is saddled with debt up to their eyeballs.  Here is a chart I published in one of my articles a few weeks back:

    U.S. Energy Debt % Of operating Profits

    If the U.S. Energy sector is paying about 50% of its operating profits just to pay the interest on its debt (2015)… WHAT HAPPENS AS OIL PRODUCTION DECLINES??  Correct… it just makes a bad situation WORSE.

    Americans have no clue the dire situation they face.  No longer will we be able to offer U.S. Treasuries in the future for oil.  Of course, this won’t end overnight, but the trend is not on our side.

    The healthy U.S. economy and financial system in the 1950’s-1960’s was powered by its cheap domestic rising oil production.  This is why we were the powerhouse of the world.  However, as the years went by and domestic oil production declined as prices increased, we were forced to use the ENERGY CREDIT CARD.

    While this worked for many decades, the ENERGY CREDIT CARD BALANCE now is unsustainable.  The decline of U.S. shale oil production will speed up the demise of the U.S. economy and empire.

    If Americans haven’t connected the DOTS by purchasing physical precious metals, the majority of their supposed wealth will EVAPORATE into thin air.  Even though owning precious metals doesn’t guarantee an individual will make it through the coming economic and financial collapse unscathed, it will at least offer better options than 99% of the Americans out there.

    Please check out our new PRECIOUS METALS INVESTING section or our new LOWEST COST PRECIOUS METALS STORAGE page.

    Check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report

  • Hacked Emails Confirm NATO Push To Provoke, Escalate Conflict With Russia

    Just two weeks ago, a huge scandal erupted within another 'union' as Germany slammed NATO for "warmongering" destroying the fictional narrative that 'innocent' NATO was merely reacting to evil Russian provocations. Furthermore, as NATO accelerated its encirclement of Russia, with British soldiers deployed in Estonia, US soldiers operating in Latvia and Canadians in Poland, while combat units are being increased in the Mediterranean 

    NATO found another excuse for war, assessing that it may now have grounds to attack Russia when it announced that if a NATO member country becomes the victim of a cyber attack by persons in a non-NATO country such as Russia or China, then NATO’s Article V “collective defense” provision requires each NATO member country to join that NATO member country if it decides to strike back against the attacking country.

    Specifically, NATO is alleging that because Russian hackers had copied the emails on Hillary Clinton’s home computer, this action of someone in Russia taking advantage of her having privatized her U.S. State Department communications to her unsecured home computer and of such a Russian’s then snooping into the U.S. State Department business that was stored on it, might constitute a Russian attack against the United States of America, and would, if the U.S. President declares it to be a Russian invasion of the U.S., trigger NATO’s mutual-defense clause and so require all NATO nations to join with the U.S. government in going to war against Russia, if the U.S. government so decides.

    Now, as The Intercept's Zaid Jilani and Lee Fang expose, retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove (yes an ironic name for a warmonger), until recently the supreme commander of NATO forces in Europe, plotted in private to overcome President Barack Obama’s reluctance to escalate military tensions with Russia over the war in Ukraine in 2014, according to apparently hacked emails from Breedlove’s Gmail account that were posted on a new website called DC Leaks.

    Obama defied political pressure from hawks in Congress and the military to provide lethal assistance to the Ukrainian government, fearing that doing so would increase the bloodshed and provide Russian President Vladimir Putin with the justification for deeper incursions into the country.

     

    Breedlove, during briefings to Congress, notably contradicted the Obama administration regarding the situation in Ukraine, leading to news stories about conflict between the general and Obama.

     

     

    But the leaked emails provide an even more dramatic picture of the intense back-channel lobbying for the Obama administration to begin a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine.

     

    In a series of messages in 2014, Breedlove sought meetings with former Secretary of State Colin Powell, asking for advice on how to pressure the Obama administration to take a more aggressive posture toward Russia.

     

    “I may be wrong, … but I do not see this WH really ‘engaged’ by working with Europe/NATO. Frankly I think we are a ‘worry,’ … ie a threat to get the nation drug into a conflict,” Breedlove wrote in an email to Powell, who responded by accepting an invitation to meet and discuss the dilemma. “I seek your counsel on two fronts,” Breedlove continued, “how to frame this opportunity in a time where all eyes are on ISIL all the time, … and two, … how to work this personally with the POTUS.”

     

     

    Breedlove attempted to influence the administration through several channels, emailing academics and retired military officials, including former NATO supreme commander Wesley Clark, for assistance in building his case for supplying military assistance to Ukrainian forces battling Russian-backed separatists.

     

    “I think POTUS sees us as a threat that must be minimized, … ie do not get me into a war????” Breedlove wrote in an email to Harlan Ullman, senior adviser to the Atlantic Council, describing his ongoing attempt to get Powell to help him influence Obama.

     

     

    “Given Obama’s instruction to you not to start a war, this may be a tough sell,” Ullman replied a few months later, in another string of emails about Breedlove’s effort to “leverage, cajole, convince or coerce the U.S. to react” to Russia.

     

    Breedlove did not respond to a request for comment. He stepped down from his NATO leadership position in May and retired from service on Friday, July 1. Breedlove was a four-star Air Force general and served as the 17th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO forces in Europe starting on May 10, 2013.

     

    Phillip Karber, an academic who corresponded regularly with Breedlove — providing him with advice and intelligence on the Ukrainian crisis —  verified the authenticity of several of the emails in the leaked cache. He also told The Intercept that Breedlove confirmed to him that the general’s Gmail account was hacked and that the incident had been reported to the government.

     

    “The last conversation I had about it with General Breedlove, he said, ‘Yeah, I’ve been hacked several times,’” said Karber. He added that he noticed at least one of his personal emails appearing online from the leak before we had contacted him. “I turned this over to the U.S. government and asked them to investigate. No one has given me any answer.”

     

    “I have no idea whose account was leaked or hacked,” said Powell, when reached for comment about the emails. Powell said he had no comment about the discussions regarding Obama’s response to the conflict in Ukraine.

     

    In the European press, Breedlove has been portrayed as a hawkish figure known for leaning on allied nations to ditch diplomacy and to adopt a more confrontational role again Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine. Breedlove, testifying before Congress earlier in February of this year, called Russia “a long-term existential threat to the United States and to our European allies.”

     

    Der Spiegel reported that Breedlove “stunned” German leaders with a surprise announcement in 2015 claiming that pro-Russian separatists had “upped the ante” in eastern Ukraine with “well over a thousand combat vehicles, Russian combat forces, some of the most sophisticated air defense, battalions of artillery” sent to Donbass, a center of the conflict.

     

    Breedlove’s numbers were “significantly higher” than the figures known to NATO intelligence agencies and seemed exaggerated to German officials. The announcement appeared to be a provocation designed to disrupt mediation efforts led by Chancellor Angela Merkel.

     

    In previous instances, German officials believed Breedlove overestimated Russian forces along the border with Ukraine by as many as 20,000 troops and found that the general had falsely claimed that several Russian military assets near the Ukrainian border were part of a special build-up in preparation for a large-scale invasion of the country. In fact, much of the Russian military equipment identified by Breedlove, the Germans said, had been stored there well before the revolution in Ukraine.

     

    The emails, however, depict a desperate search by Breedlove to build his case for escalating the conflict, contacting colleagues and friends for intelligence to illustrate the Russian threat. Karber, who visited Ukrainian politicians and officials in Kiev on several occasions, sent frequent messages to Breedlove — “per your request,” he noted — regarding information he had received about separatist military forces and Russian troop movements. In several updates, Breedlove received military data sourced from Twitter and social media.

     

    Karber, the president of the Potomac Foundation, became the center of a related scandal last year when it was discovered that he had facilitated a meeting during which images of purported Russian forces in Ukraine were distributed to the office of Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., and were published by a neoconservative blog. The pictures turned out to be a deception; one supposed picture of Russian tanks in Ukraine was, in fact, an old photograph of Russian tanks in Ossetia during the war with Georgia.

     

    Breedlove stayed in close contact with Karber and other officials who shared his views on the Ukrainian conflict.

     

    “Phil, can’t we get a statement to counteract the Russians on use of force? what can I do to help? If the Ukrainians lose control of the narrative, the Russians will see it as an open door,” wrote retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who forwarded on his messages with Victoria Nuland, the assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs. He also passed along concerns from the Bulgarian president that Bulgaria might be Russia’s next target.

     

    In other messages, Clark relayed specific requests for the types of military aid desired by Ukrainian officials. In addition to radar systems and other forms of military equipment, Clark recommended that Breedlove “encourage Ukraine to hire some first rate pr firms and crisis communications firms in U.S. and Europe.” He added, “They need the right tools to engage in information warfare.”

     

    Ukraine did hire several D.C. lobbying and communication firms to influence policymakers. In June 2015, the government signed a deal with APCO Worldwide, an influential firm with ties to senior Democratic and Republican officials.

     

    In an email in February 2015, Karber told Breedlove that “Pakistan has, under the table, offered Ukraine 500 TOW-II launchers (man-portable version) and 8,000 TOW-II missiles,” adding that deliveries of the anti-tank weapons could begin by the end of the month. “However,” Karber wrote, “Pakistan will not make these deliveries without U.S. approval; moreover they will not even request that approval unless they have informal assurance that it would be approved.”

     

    Karber told The Intercept that the Pakistani arms deal never materialized.

     

    Breedlove was most recently in the news explaining that he now thinks we need to talk to the Russian government to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. “I think we need to begin to have meaningful dialogue,” he said last week, while reiterating his views on the need for a strong NATO to militarily match Russia. “Russia does understand power, and strength, and unity,” he said.

    With all that in mind, we return to German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier's recent exclamation that "anyone who thinks you can increase security in the alliance with symbolic parades of tanks near the eastern borders, is mistaken," and given the 'proof' above that it is indeed NATO that is provoking and warmongering, the unprecedented reality in which NATO's biggest and most important European member is suddenly and quite vocally against NATO and as a result may be pivoting toward Russian, we for one can't wait to see just how this shocking geopolitical debacle for western neocons and war hawks concludes.

    The emails were released by D.C. Leaks, a database run by self-described “hacktivists” who are collecting the communications of elite stakeholders such as political parties, major politicians, political campaigns, and the military. The website currently has documents revealing some internal communications of the Hillary Clinton presidential campaign and George Soros’s Open Society Foundation, among others.

  • ISIS Mastermind Behind Istanbul Terrorist Attack Was A "Refugee" Protected By Europe

    Following Tuesday’s horrific attack at Istanbul’s Ataturk airport which resulted in 44 death at the hands of 3 suicide bombers, Turkey was quick to blame the Islamic State for the terrorist act. And while that may be accurate, something surprising has emerged about the alleged ringleader of the group of three men who have been since identified as Russian, Uzbek and Kyrgyz nationals. As Russia’s Kommersant and Turkish media report, a Chechen national suspected of being the mastermind behind the deadly Istanbul airport terrorist attack, had previously received refugee status in Austria, which helped him to repeatedly avoid extradition to Russia on terror charges.

    Ahmed Chataev

    As the complete picture of the latest terrorist attack in Turkey comes together, it has emerged that the attack was allegedly organized by Ahmed Chataev, a Russian citizen of Chechen origin, who joined the Islamic State in 2015 and now fights in Syria, Turkish media report, citing police sources.

    Chataev was assigned a leading role in training extremists that would then commit terrorist attacks in both Russia and Western Europe, the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Investigative Committee Andrey Przhezdomsky said, adding that, in Syria, Chataev also commands a unit consisting “primarily of immigrants from the North Caucasus.”

    It has been also revealed that Chataev was long wanted by the Russian authorities for terrorism-related offenses but he fled to Europe, where he was granted asylum, and successfully managed to escape extradition to Russia. The alleged mastermind joined Islamist secessionist militants that fought against Russia in the Second Chechen War between 1999 and 2000, where he lost an arm. Later, he was considered to be a representative of Dokka Umarov, once a “terrorist ?1” in Russia, in the Western Europe.

    The attack coordinator was on a wanted list in Russia since 2003 for sponsoring terrorism, recruiting extremists and membership in a terrorist group, Russian media report. However, in the same year, he received asylum in Austria. Chataev reportedly claimed that he lost his arm as he was severely tortured in Russian prison adding that he is being persecuted by Russian authorities.


    He lost his arm in Russia in the early 2000s, though there are conflicting reports
    as to how he lost the limb

    In 2008, he was detained with some other Chechen nationals in the Swedish town of Trelleborg as police found Kalashnikov assault rifles, explosives and ammunition in his car. As a result, he spent more than a year in Swedish prison.

    In 2010, Chataev was arrested in Ukraine with his mobile phone files containing a demolition technique instruction and photos of people killed in a blast. Russia requested his extradition on terrorism-related charges but the European Court for Human Rights ordered Ukraine not to hand him over to Russia with Amnesty International also urging Ukrainian authorities to halt extradition as Chataev “could face an unfair trial and would be at risk of torture and other ill-treatment.

    Below is the actual statement filed by Amnesty International titled “Ukraine: Chechen risks torture if returned to Russia

    Ahmed Chataev, an ethnic Chechen man, is threatened with imminent forcible return from Ukraine to Russia. If he is returned, he could face an unfair trial and would be at risk of torture and other ill-treatment in order to extract “confessions” from him. Ahmed Chataev has been granted refugee status in Austria and was visiting Ukraine with a valid visa. Ukraine is a state party to the Refugee Convention and the UN Convention against Torture, which prohibit the return of anyone to a situation where they would be at risk of torture.

     

    One year later, he was again detained as he was crossing the border between Turkey and Bulgaria but he again avoided extradition because of the interference of human rights organizations that stressed Chataev had a refugee status in Austria and thus cannot be sent to Russia, Kommersant reported. Between 2012 and 2015, Chataev reportedly lived in Georgia, where he also joined some terrorist groups and served a prison sentence on terrorism-related charges.

    In February 2015, he left Georgia for Syria, where he joined IS militants and soon took a high position in the Islamic State hierarchy.

    Finally, in October 2015, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Department of the Treasury added Chataev to its terrorist list because of his alleged involvement into recruitment of extremists.

     

    And just like that, in the span of 5 years, a person whose extradition to Russia was prevented by Europe and Amnesty ended up a formally recognized terrorist by the US, and ultimately his actions resulted in the death of 44 people. If only there was less political bickering between Russia and Europe, more than 40 innocent lives could have been spared.

    Finally, in light of these revelations, one wonders precisely what is the function of the ubiquitous NSA in today’s world?

  • This Is What Loretta Lynch Said When Cornered About Her Clinton Meeting

    Having been forced to remove herself from the Hillary Clinton email probe, Loretta Lynch admitted that her shockingly ill-advised private meeting with Bill Clinton has "cast a shadow" over the investigations and questions on the meeting are "fair." Her magnanimity was further expressed "I wouldn't do it again," while claiming that she had made the decision to 'recuse' herself days before her Bubba meeting.

    Highlights – "No Comment" on the system being rigged…

    The headlines of what she said:

    • *LYNCH ON BILL CLINTON SAYS QUESTIONS ON CLINTON MEETING FAIR
    • *LYNCH SAYS HER BILL CLINTON MTG RAISED QUESTIONS AND CONCERNS
    • *LYNCH SAYS HILLARY CLINTON E-MAIL INVESTIGATION INDEPENDENT
    • *LYNCH SAYS `FULLY EXPECT' TO ACCEPT INVESTIGATOR RECOMMENDATION
    • *LYNCH SAYS SHE'LL BE BRIEFED, `WILL BE' ACCEPTING FINDINGS
    • *LYNCH SAYS DECISION ON HANDLING CLINTON PROBE MADE BEFORE MTG
    • *LYNCH SAYS SHE, BILL CLINTON TALKED GRANDKIDS, TRAVEL ON PLANE
    • *LYNCH SAYS MEETING `CAST A SHADOW' OVER PROBE OF CLINTON E-MAIL

     

    As we detailed earlier, on Monday evening US Attorney General Loretta Lynch conveniently just happened to meet up with Bill Clinton for a private meeting on her plane on a Phoenix airport tarmac.

    Despite Lynch promising everyone that the only things that were discussed were Bill's golf game and grandchildren, conservative watchdog Judicial Watch requested that the DOJ's Office of the Inspector General investigate the meeting. As The Hill reports, pressure is intensifying on Attorney General Loretta Lynch to hand off oversight of the federal investigation connected to Hillary Clinton’s private email server…

    Calls for Lynch to step aside — which had already been simmering for months — appeared primed to boil over Thursday following the attorney general’s unscheduled, private meeting with Clinton’s husband, former President Bill Clinton.

     

    “Considering the ongoing criminal investigation of Hillary Clinton, this secret meeting between the Attorney General and Bill Clinton shows an astounding lack of judgment by Loretta Lynch,” House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) said in a statement on Thursday calling for Lynch to recuse herself.

     

    “Given the culture of unaccountability in the Obama Administration, it is unlikely that Attorney General Lynch will heed the growing calls for her resignation,” he said. “But at a minimum, Lynch should immediately recuse herself from the Justice Department's criminal investigation into Hillary Clinton’s unlawful activities, and appoint a special prosecutor to handle the case, so the American people can know the truth about this secret meeting and finally rest assured the criminal investigation of Hillary Clinton is being conducted fully and impartially, without even the appearance of corruption.”

    And, now, as AP reports, a Justice Department official said that Loretta Lynch intends to accept whatever recommendation career prosecutors and federal agents make in the investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server.

    "The Attorney General expects to receive and accept the determinations and findings of the Department's career prosecutors and investigators, as well as the FBI Director," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the ongoing probe.

     

    Lynch was expected to discuss the matter further at a summit Friday in Aspen, Colorado.

     

    This revelation comes amid a controversy surrounding an impromptu private discussion that Lynch had aboard her plane on the tarmac at a Phoenix airport on Monday with Clinton's husband, former President Bill Clinton. That get-together has been criticized as inappropriate by Republicans and some Democrats at a time when the Justice Department has been investigating whether classified information was mishandled through Clinton's exclusive use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.

     

    Lynch told reporters that she did and Bill Clinton did not discuss the email investigation during the encounter.

     

    The announcement also appeared intended to assuage concerns, particularly among Republicans, that Lynch — a Democratic appointee — might overrule recommendations from the agents and prosecutors who have worked on the case. Disputes on charging decisions between the FBI and the Justice Department are not uncommon, particularly in national security cases, though many legal experts see any criminal prosecution in this matter as exceedingly unlikely.

     

    Decisions on whether to charge anyone in the case will be made by "career prosecutors and investigators who have been handling this matter since its inception" and reviewed by senior lawyers at the department and the FBI director, and Lynch will then accept whatever recommendation comes, the official said.

    * * *

    So by releasing this statement does that mean that Lynch routinely overrides other case recommendations from the FBI and DOJ staff? Also, based on the fact that the FBI may very well leak the facts of the case if the DOJ doesn't follow its recommendation, we will be able to learn whether or not Lynch is telling the truth. We won't hold our breath.

    "I did not have email-probe-relations with that man"

  • Brexit Simplified

    Simple as that…

     

     

    Source: MichaelPRamirez.com

  • The Invisible Hand Of The Disogranized Masses

    Submitted by JC Collins via Philosophy Of Metrics blog,

    The comments this week coming from the so-called elite referencing the ignorant masses have manufactured an aggressive response.  The mainstream media have not picked up on these comments but the alternative media have been on the cultural front lines with well strategized talking points.

    It should be noted that I have often referenced the disorganized masses in previous posts.  This phrase stands in contrast to what is being referenced with the term ignorant masses.  Disorganized would suggest non-ignorance with a lack of focus and intent.  Ignorant simply means that the masses are too intellectually inferior for advanced comprehension.

    While it cannot be denied that there is a vast component of ignorance maintained within the disorganized masses, this ignorance, for the most part, is not willful and is the product of massive cultural and socioeconomic conditioning.  Being that all people are not intellectually equal, it can be assumed that there are varying degrees of comprehension when it comes to socioeconomic trends and directions.

    The one common trait which is shared by all demographics is the expression of self-interest.  The term “Invisible Hand” was first used by Adam Smith in the lead up years to the French Revolution.  The invisible hand described the unintended social benefits of individual actions.  It was reasoned that individuals’ efforts to pursue their own interest may frequently benefit society more than if their actions were directly intending to benefit society.

    The French population was guided by this invisible hand as the people expressed their self-interest through anger at the French monarchy in 1789.

    In his book Proofs of a Conspiracy Against All the Religions and Governments of Europe, Carried on in the Secret Meetings of Free Masons, Illuminati, and Reading Societies, Collected from Good Authorities, John Robison, Professor of Natural Philosophy, and Secretary to the Royal Society of Edinburgh, presented a strong case that the French Revolution was manufactured through the manipulation of the domestic economy by external banking interests.

    The book, which was published in 1798, only a few years after the initial revolution, has since been minimized and disregarded as inaccurate and unproven.  This typical smear tactic, which we still see in use today, has done little to address most of the facts and events discussed in the book.  The work is a major announcement of the methodology which was used, and continues to be used, by international banking interests against the ignorant (disorganized) masses.  I have a first printing from 1798 in my own collection and consider it to be one of my most prized possessions.

    The accepted causes of the French Revolution are listed on Wikipedia as follows:

    1. Cultural: The Enlightenment philosophy desacralized the authority of the King and the Church, and promoted a new society based on “reason” instead of traditions.
    2. Social: The emergence of an influential bourgeoisie which was formally part of the Third Estate (commoners) but had evolved into a caste with its own agenda and aspired to political equality with the clergy (First Estate) and the aristocracy (Second Estate).
    3. Financial: France’s debt, aggravated by French involvement in the American Revolution, led Louis XVI to implement new taxations and to reduce privileges.
    4. Political: Louis XVI faced virulent opposition from provincial parliaments which were the spearheads of the privileged classes’ resistance to royal reforms.
    5. Economic: The de-regulation of the grain market, advocated by liberal economists, resulted in an increase in bread prices.  In period of bad harvests, it would lead to food scarcity which would prompt the masses to revolt.

    These are all the same causes which John Robison also attributes to the French Revolution.  The difference is that Robison does not accept that idea that these conditions materialized as a natural process of socioeconomics.  For Robison, the intentional manufacturing of these conditions by powers outside France was obvious.

    Turning entire populations towards revolution takes years of socioeconomic conditioning and the application of downward pressure on civil liberties while also drawing attention to that downward pressure.  The disorganized masses through the ultimate expression of self-interest, as defined by the invisible hand of Adam Smith, will inevitably rise up and overthrow those they perceive as being the cause of the problem.  The solution to the problem will have been previously weaved into the fabric of the revolution.

    In the case of the French Revolution the problem was the monarchy and the solution was the overthrow of that monarchy and the establishment of the state governance framework and central bank methodology.

    It would be beneficial to consider that in the modern world globalization and central bank practices are fulfilling the same role as the monarchy.  The solution, which will wear the revolutionary mask of modern-nationalism, will morph into the final objective of global governance and monetary consolidation.  The framework for these objectives has already been weaved into the developing response.

    Let’s take another look at the causes of the French Revolution detailed above and apply modern trends to them:

    1. Cultural: Like the Enlightenment, the Information Age and developing technology is changing the world at the fastest pace since Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution.  The pressure which is building on the old traditions and ways of life is promoting the concept once again of a new society.
    2. Social: Like the French bourgeoisie a new caste of “elite” have risen from within the ranks of the commoners (disorganized masses) and have aspired to political equality with the clergy and aristocracy.  The American elite simulacra of political families, such as Clintons, Bushes, etc.., are fulfilling this role whether they realize it or not.
    3. Financial: Like pre-revolution France, western governments have accumulated vast amounts of debt fighting wars around the world and unrestrained fiscal spending.  This debt has caused some nations to reduce privileges through austerity measures and increase taxation on the disorganized masses.
    4. Political: Like the provincial parliaments in pre-revolution France, nationalist political movements are developing in countries around the world.  This new modern-nationalism will be the tip of the spear for further global governance and monetary consolidation.  The response to BREXIT of deeper monetary consolidation within the EU and the development of an EU Super-State would suggest this to be the case.
    5. Economic: Like the de-regulation of the grain market in France, the modern world has experienced a massive amount of de-regulation in everything from energy to banking.  As in the past, this de-regulation has caused additional strain on the disorganized masses and has contributed to the growing sense of unfairness and aggression.

    As we can see, all of the components which facilitated the French Revolution are being used in the modern world in various forms.  The methodology which was used in pre-revolution France went on to be used against other nations and fundamentally changed the world and how massive populations were managed and wealth distributed.

    Over the last few years I have been writing extensively on the fundamentals of the monetary transition aspects of this new global governance mandate.  On so many occasions I have attempted to present a convincing case to readers that we are being herded down a path which has been engineered with great care and attention.

    But unfortunately the large majority of readers have been unable to accept the methodology described and have instead folded under the massive mainstream and alternative propaganda which is fulfilling the same mandates as in the French Revolution.

    As before, where the mass population of France could not see the external influence from outside, the disorganized masses of the modern world cannot see that the five causes of revolution described above are being engineered by a power which resides above the nation state and the structure of central banking.

    While we are focusing our anger on central banks and our political classes the real framework is being weaved into the well planned out response, which will take the form of modern-nationalism with a focus on repairing the damages which have been hammered into the five effective causes defined as cultural, social, financial, political, and economic.

    Each of our own expressions of self-interest, the invisible hand which is manipulated, is being used against us for a larger purpose.

    Often I am asked the question of why I think the plans of the elites will work.  I am told that this time it is different.  This time the people have awakened and they are taking their power back.  The obvious answer is that we are talking two different elites.  Most readers consider the elites to be the political and financial classes which have been allowed to develop.  The elite I reference have engineered those used and abused subjects for the specific purpose of attracting the anger and aggression of the disorganized masses.

    Some of this methodology and engineering have been further described in the following posts:

    How Rothschild Inc. Saved Donald Trump

    BREXIT – The New Modern Nationalism is Global Governance

    New Age Socialism and the End of Debt-Based Money Creation

    All of the above, like this article, are FREEPOM posts, which are meant to spread the message as far as possible.  Some information shouldn’t have a monetary value, and my attempt to spread truth is genuine.

    Trends are difficult to reverse, and the disorganized masses are impossible to organize without access to massive media formats.  Blogs such as Philosophy of Metrics are one of the only methods available of attempting to spread truth and awaken the masses to the methodology described above.  The information age has provided this opportunity to stimulate a true awakening.  Unfortunately this open media is being massively infiltrated and used through alternative media to manufacture the aggressive response required.  They serve the same purpose as the commoner leaflets in the lead up to the French Revolution.

    It is ironic that the site which is honestly attempting to provide an education on the methodologies and socioeconomic engineering being used is frequently accused of promoting the agenda of the elites. Such is the power and influence of the scripting which is being used.  Like the French population of the past, our populations today are blinded to the real causes and purpose of the events of our time.

    The question of why I feel so confident that these plans will work has its obvious answer in the fact that the question even exists.  Like John Robison, I am attempting to do my part for the good of humanity but feel burdened with the lack of acceptance and encouragement from the larger population.

    Standing as a man of conviction I will continue to research and present information for those few among us who still remain free in spirit and thought.  The ignorance of the disorganized masses will continue and this post will be attacked across the blogosphere as more JC entitlement and lack of understanding the economic fundamentals.

    Renewing the spark of life within each of us is more important than taking a punch in the face.  This transformation of the world's systems will continue and the disorganized masses will bitch and moan about engineered elites and scripted imbalances.  What was before will be again.  But this time I’m awake, and no matter what the world becomes the truth inside can never be altered or destroyed.

  • Clinton Is Spending $500k A Day On TV Ads While Trump Spends Nothing

    It's well known that throughout the GOP campaign and into the general election, Donald Trump has done things his own way, and for the most part it has worked out favorably. Most recently Trump made it known that at the GOP convention, there would be more than just traditional politicians to interact with, as the likes of Bobby Knight, Mike Tyson and Mike Ditka have been invited to attend.

    What is also known, and has sent the mainstream media and everyone else into a frenzy, is the fact that Trump's cash levels were dwarfed by Clinton at the start of June. Trump wasn't the least bit concerned with the levels of funding, saying "There could be unlimited cash on hand, as I would put up my own money, as I have already done through the primaries, spending over $50 million dollars."

    As it turns out, Clinton is going to need all of that cash the campaign is generating because as Bloomberg reports, the Clinton Campaign has run 9,781 ads from June 15-27 at an estimated cost of $6 million, or nearly $500,000 a day.

    For context as to the amount of advertising spending Clinton is doing, the $1 million Hillary spent on Orlando television from June 19-26 is significantly more than the $682,000 Obama spent exactly four years earlier seeking re-election.

    Clinton has focused heavily on Orlando, Denver, and Raleigh, the markets in battleground states, and in other markets such as Las Vegas, Clinton has only aired a few spots, allowing super-PAC Priorities USA do the bulk of the spending there.

    As Bloomberg points out, the Clinton campaign advertising shows no signs of slowing down. Among some of the bigger advertising reservations set to air during the first two weeks of July are $2.7 million on national cable and satellite television targeting specific markets and states, $1.1 million in the Tampa-St. Petersburg market and $853,000 in Charlotte, North Carolina.

    The Clinton campaign will also continue to rely heavily on Priorities USA to continue the barrage of advertising. Priorities USA says that it plans to spend at least $158 million in digital, television, and radio advertising through election day, including $10.5 million for advertising in Pennsylvania that it announced in the past week. The super-PAC raised more than $88 million through the end of May and says it has $45 million more in commitments.

    "Advertising is reality. Campaigns can talk about states being competitive or not competitive, but where they put their TV dollars reveals what they really think." said Ken Goldstein, a University of San Francisco professor.

    Goldstein's statement may actually be true, because during the time that Clinton was embarking on an all out media blitz, Donald Trump ran precisely… drum roll please… zero ads.

    "I don't even need commercials, if you want to know the truth" Trump said.

    * * *

    And so there we have it, the reason Trump isn't concerned about having a large cash balance is simply because, at least at this point, The Donald plans on remaining frugal and letting the mainstream media do the advertising for free.

  • Clinkle Goes Clunk

    We begin with this photograph of Lucas Duplan, entrepreneur extraordinaire:

    I first wrote about young Mr. Duplan in this post nearly two years ago. My post was about this new firm, Clinkle, garnering tens of millions of dollars in funding to create an app which would let you give little goodies (they called them “treats”) to your friends based on how much you used your credit card.

    It seemed like a moronic idea to me, and when at last the product was launched, the reviews were – – how shall I put this – – chilly:

    Lucas saw things differently, however. When describing his firm and its product, he stated: “Clinkle is a movement to push the human race forward by changing how we transact.” 

    Let’s take that one sentence and focus on two of its bits: first off, “movement”. Clinkle is (or was, as you shall soon read) a “movement”. To which my only intelligent reply is: go fuck yourself. The Bernie Sanders campaign is a movement. The growth over the past twenty years of organic produce is a movement. Putting out some lame-ass app no one uses is not a movement. Sorry, sweetie.

    The second bit – “push the human race forward” – is, of course, ten times worse. I am compelled to guzzle down a bottle of ipecac syrup, vomit into a bucket, and invert the aforementioned bucket on top of Mr. Duplan’s arrogant, self-aggrandizing head. But, again, as you shall soon see, none of this is necessary anymore.

    Because, as you might guess, Clinkle and its $40 million of funding has yielded nothing more than a puddle of piss evaporating in the midday summer sun of 2016. This should come as no huge surprise, however, given some of the earlier assessment of Duplan’s management prowess:

    0701-worst

    And the above headline wasn’t apparently the view of just some crank; employees seem to chime in with similar feelings as well:

    0701-quotes

    And, thus, the combination of a ridiculous, useless app and ham-handed management yields different Google results than I suspect Duplan dreamed he would be seeing these days:

    0701-goog

    There are some more self-aware societies when the instigator of such a mess would have committed seppuku, but the Silicon Valley is famously forgiving, so if you hop onto LInkedIn, you’ll find Lucas’ smiling face, ready for action.

    0630-asdf

    Take note of the portion I highlighted above, however. “Low margin, high cost business so discontinued.” Do you sniff the faint stench of non-responsibility here? Does it seem rather astonishing a person would brush off this multi-zillion dollar fiasco with a shrug of their shoulders. It’s almost like the synopsis of a failed blind date (“Yeah, she looked hot in her picture, but when I met her, she was 300 pounds, so we just went to Chipotle’s.”)  But I guess putting “Product laughed off the face of the planet and investors left behind choking in the midst of scorched earth.” doesn’t lend itself to a good LinkedIn profile. But his explanation (as if anyone was asking) seems awfully goddamned flippant.

    Of course, I was naturally curious to see what the former CEO of Clinkle was doing, and right there on his page it shows he is in fact the CEO of Treats (which, I suppose, could be considered a lateral career move, what with being a CEO and all).

    There’s one problem, though. As far as I can see, there’s no such thing as Treats, Inc. Well, there is, but I don’t think it’s what this guy is claiming to be the leader of……….

    0630-sad

    ……nor do I think it’s this one………..

    0630-clin2

    What I do know, however, is that the $40 million (or whatever the figure ultimately turned out to be) has resulted in the following home page for Clinkle.

    0630-clin

    For every success in Silicon Valley, there are a thousand failures. I only hope in sharing this example of one of them, I’ve managed to help push the human race forward. It’s what I do.

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Today’s News 1st July 2016

  • Two Union Workers In Spain Haven't Shown Up For Work In 15 Years

    Imagine having a job where you didn't actually show up for 15 years, but you continued to get paid – that would be a pretty amazing gig wouldn't it? Well, as it turns out, two guys in Jerez, Spain actually pulled that off.

    Two men, a chauffeur and a gardener, have been collecting full pay from Jerez city council in Andalucia without putting in a single shift for the council, as part of an apparent deal with local unions.

    According to the Telegraph, as registered representatives for the CGT union, the two men have the right to divide their time between their jobs and union activities, however when the council's human resources department carried out a recent audit, it found that the pair had not clocked in a single day in 2015 or 2016. Furthermore, upon contacting the two men to inquire about the findings, they said that they had not gone to work since 2001! The reason given was that the men had a "tacit deal" between the council and the union.

    One has returned to work, but his union colleague presented a letter "demonstrating that he was using the accumulation of union hours not taken up by other reps."

    The CGT union leader in Jerez, Juan Gonzalez, said the council's probe was a frontal attack on union freedom", and pointed out that union hours could legally be transferred between representatives, saying "we have 15 reps and each has 40 hours a month for union work. According to the agreement, these hours are not personalized but accumulative, and these colleagues have accumulated the hours that others did not use." – that's a lot of union activities to be sure.

    Jerez is one of Spain's most indebted local governments, owing half a billion euros to the banks the Telegraph notes. It's all good, what's a few more headcount to cover when Draghi is buying all of the debt in Europe anyway, right?

    The council is also investigating three other workers suspected of taking unjustifiable amounts of leave to perform union duties. Jerez is not alone however, in February it was revealed that nearby Cadiz city hall had a had a phantom civil servant on its payroll who had not been seen at work for six years.

    * * *

    There really isn't much else to say except that this is good work if you can get it. It reminds us of Milton from Office space who continued to get paid due to a glitch in the payroll after he was laid off… except Milton actually kept showing up for work.

  • The Italian Job: "How Did Things Go So Bad?"

    Submitted by Danielle DiMartino Booth via DiMartinoBooth.com,

    “You’re only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!”

    That one line, spoken on the big screen by Michael Caine was crowned, according to a 2003 Daily Telegraph survey, Britain’s favorite one-liner of film. That kind of staying power is remarkable considering The Italian Job, the original that is, was released in 1969, two years before Mark Wahlberg, who portrayed Caine’s character, Charlie Croker, in the movie’s 2003 remake, made his 1971 debut.

    As for the film’s American version and one-liners, the crown for favorite was won when Charlie’s 2003 on-screen nemesis Steve taunted: “You blew the best thing you had going for you. You blew the element of surprise.” Charlie’s reaction? A knock-out punch followed seamlessly by the understated comeback, “Surprised?”

    The element of surprise was on full display in the hours and days that followed Britain’s voters’ decisive move to Leave the EU. The Brexit referendum succeeded in blowing off a different set of doors, leaving taunting politicians and policymakers alike flat-footed, with a whole new fear, that of contagion, beginning to the south in Italy. Might the Italians pull of a Job of their own, following Great Britain’s lead in stealing back their own country?

    The hope, stated diplomatically by Gluskin Sheff’s inimitable David Rosenberg, a dear friend, is that Brexit will prove to be a, “wakeup call for the long-awaited fundamental changes with regards to the EU – make it more democratic and make it less bureaucratic and embark on immigration rules that do not sacrifice regional security.”

    Rosenberg’s concerns on security are more than justified in the case of Italy. According to the Italian Coast Guards’ latest tally, the 3,324 migrants rescued June 26 brought the total rescued in just four days to 10,000. Four days! Calm seas have triggered fresh waves of migrants, bringing the total thus far this year to 66,000. The forecast calls for 10,000 more to arrive every week until year’s end. Some 300,000 in total for 2016. The ease with which migrants can cross the seas to Italy means that country takes in 13 to 14 times more than Turkey and Greece. Is it any wonder Italians are exhausted?

    At a Brussels Summit, EU leaders were urged to “speed up and increase” the return of migrants deemed to not be bona-fide refugees. In actuality, many making the crossing are simply looking for economic opportunity rather than escaping any real danger. Estimates vary, but only between six and 19 percent of those ordered back to their home countries actually leave. It is patently apparent that the EU does not have sufficient measures in place to combat the problem on behalf of its disgruntled member nations, and must become much more vigilant in its approach.

    As economically and culturally debilitating as the migrant crisis has become, it’s critical to take a step back from this particular issue to understand the depth of Italy’s economic plight. The reality is, there’s something greater than just poorly managed migration underlying the unrest in Italy and its EU neighbors.

    While the migrant crisis clearly played into Brexit, the vote revealed much deeper anxieties driven by a very visible fact of British life, especially life after the financial crisis. The briefest of visits to the City of London, its streets lined with chauffeured Mercedes, offers ample prima facie evidence of what so many Brits know in their bones – that the distance between “them” and “the rest of us” has grown since the crisis broke.

    The average Brit knows they didn’t wake up yesterday ripe to pillory the “elite,” a word that’s crept back into the vernacular like a slowly spreading disease. But they do know they’re not among those who have risen to the creamy top in recent years but have rather been demoted to the ranks of those left behind.

    The fairy tale of the wealth effect, that what is good for those at the top of the pecking order is good for the masses, is apparently an international phenomenon. The one saving grace on this count is the British never succumbed to pressure to join single currency. That, however, is certainly not the case for the beleaguered Italians.

    Back in the summer of 2012, when Greece appeared poised to leave the EU and escape the euro currency via devaluation of the drachma, Merrill Lynch released a report ranking the countries who stood the most to gain economically from dropping the euro. Can you guess who came in at the top spot?

    More than any of its peers, the Italian economy has suffered since joining the euro in 1999. Since 2007, its economy has contracted by 10 percent and suffered not one, not two, but three recessions. Competitive export-led growth has been deeply impaired by virtue of Italy’s being effectively yoked to the massive German economy.

    Despite the rise of China, Germany has been able to maintain its top three ranking among world exporters. The secret weapon? That would be the euro. In 1998, the year before Germany switched to the euro, the country exported $540 billion. By 2015, that figure had swelled to $1.3 trillion. Italy’s exports have also grown, but not nearly as robustly, coming in last year at $459 billion compared to $242 billion the year before it joined the euro.

    Just as it once was the case with China, Germany benefits from its relatively weak currency. If Germany was not tethered to its weaker-economy neighbors and was still on the Deutsche Mark, it would have a significantly stronger currency and substantially lower exports due to the price of its exports being much more expensive for world markets.

    Back in 2011, UBS put pencil to paper and figured that losing the common currency would trigger an immediate effective tax increase for the average German citizen of about €7,000 and between €3,500 to €4,000 euros every single year going forward. By contrast, swallowing half the debt of Greece, Ireland and Portugal at that time would have generated a little over €1,000 tab per citizen. Now you see why bailing out is so easy to do, though the Germans do put on a great show of irritation at having to foot such bills. But let’s be honest. Consider the alternative.

    Reverse that effect and, with all else being equal, you begin to appreciate why Italy’s exports have become relatively more expensive, burdened as they are with a more expensive currency than they would have had. Consider that globalization had already done a number on the country’s once magnificent industrial base when Italy opted into the euro and left the lire behind. Since then, the country’s industrial capacity has been further decimated, shrinking by 15 percent. To take but one example, in 2007, Italy manufactured 24 million appliances; by 2012 it had declined to 13 million.

    Add up the economic consequences and you begin to understand why Italian unemployment is running north of 12 percent while putting four-in-ten young Italians are out of work. To the Italians, if anyone’s managed to pull off a Job, it’s those smug Germans.

    Three years ago, the Merrill report warned that Italy’s current account deficit would be an impediment to returning to the lire in that the deficit required foreign capital to keep current on its bills. Flash forward three years and Italy is running a current account surplus of 1.9 percent, a fairly recent phenomenon and more a reflection of its economic atrophy than a competitive trade position. Nevertheless, that is one obstacle to leaving the euro that’s disappeared.

    That is not to say that Italy will be able to ride off into some glowing economic sunset. Italy’s banks are thought to be the Continent’s weakest. There are $408 billion in past due loans sitting on Italian bank balance sheets. Investors value these loans at 20-30 cents on the dollar if they are secured, and as little as 5 cents if they are unsecured while banks have marked them at between 50-65 cents on the dollar.

    The yawning gap between market pricing and that of Italy’s banks is reminiscent of how unrealistically Lehman valued its loans before going under. Unicredit, Italy’s largest bank, has seen its stock price halved this year as investors worry its capital is insufficient to handle the Brexit fallout.

    Leaving the EU and being unshackled from the euro could well lead to an Italian debt default, which is meaningful given Italy is the third largest sovereign debt market in the world. But local laws also provide plenty of leeway for the government to restructure its debts without triggering a default. The one thing that is not in doubt is that the lire would provide the Italians with the relief they have so desperately needed since joining the single currency.

    On the flipside, the damage to Germany’s manufacturing sector could be sufficient to catalyze a Continental recession. Angela Merkel has probably lost considerable sleep being a unified Europe is her treasured baby. In all, Germany’s annual economic growth is boosted by a half-percentage point courtesy of its euro membership.

    While there is no denying the economic challenges facing Italy, the potential for its exiting the EU was hugely increased by the Brexit. After all, some 58% of Italians were already calling for a referendum vote. If those voters are angry today, imagine how much angrier they will be if the Brexit throws Europe into a recession that Mario Draghi cannot effectively battle given that he already has his stimulus measures running full throttle.

    Tellingly, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, which has risen rapidly in power in recent months, has not called for a referendum to leave the EU, but rather to get rid of the euro. Beppe Grillo, the stand-up comedian who founded the party said the Brexit, “sanctions the failure of EU policies based on austerity and the selfishness of member States, which are incapable of being a community.” Yes, Stunad, it really is about the economy.

    The shame is Italy is its own bureaucratic basket case with little rule of law (think Mafia, tax avoidance and the impossibility of legislating anything from theory into practice). Brexit has lowered the odds Matteo Renzi’s government will stand the test of time and last until October, the date by which his referendum to streamline Italy’s bloated government must be taken up by the Italian electorate.

    Even if Renzi stands, Italy’s future in the EU looks to be at risk. The collapse in bank shares in the trading days following the Brexit has created an immediate crisis. Within 72 hours of the vote results, Italy was reported to be preparing a €40 billion rescue of its financial system. A direct recapitalization of the banks, funded by a special bond issue was on the table. But the Italians are also pleading for a moratorium of ‘bail-in’ rules and bondholder write-downs, both of which are prohibited under existing EU laws.

    Hate to go out on any limbs here, but odds are pretty good that those rules will be relaxed, all things considered.

    How on earth did things go so wrong? Could it be as simple as power-mongering and greed? To rob a line from the 2003 Italian Job, “There are two kinds of thieves in this world: The ones who steal to enrich their lives, and those who steal to define their lives.” Could it be that average working Italians, especially those who have been around for a good long while, feel as if they’ve been victims of both of the two kinds of theft, doubly wronged? “Basta!” their voices scream in defiance. Enough is enough!

  • The Collapse Of Western Democracy

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Democracy no longer exists in the West. In the US, powerful private interest groups, such as the military-security complex, Wall Street, the Israel Lobby, agribusiness and the extractive industries of energy, timber and mining, have long exercised more control over government than the people. But now even the semblance of democracy has been abandoned.

    In the US Donald Trump has won the Republican presidential nomination. However, Republican convention delegates are plotting to deny Trump the nomination that the people have voted him. The Republican political establishment is showing an unwillingness to accept democratic outcomes.

    The people chose, but their choice is unacceptable to the establishment which intends to substitute its choice for the people’s choice.

    Do you remember Dominic Strauss-Kahn? Strauss-Kahn is the Frenchman who was head of the IMF and, according to polls, the likely next president of France. He said something that sounded too favorable toward the Greek people. This concerned powerful banking interests who worried that he might get in the way of their plunder of Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy. A hotel maid appeared who accused him of rape. He was arrested and held without bail. After the police and prosecutors had made fools of themselves, he was released with all charges dropped. But the goal was achieved. Strauss-Kahn had to resign as IMF director and kiss goodbye his chance for the presidency of France.

    Curious, isn’t it, that a woman has now appeared who claims Trump raped her when she was 13 years old.

    Consider the political establishment’s response to the Brexit vote. Members of Parliament are saying that the vote is unacceptable and that Parliament has the right and responsibility to ignore the voice of the people.

    The view now established in the West is that the people are not qualified to make political decisions. The position of the opponents of Brexit is clear: it simply is not a matter for the British people whether their sovereignty is given away to an unaccountable commission in Brussels.

    Martin Schultz, President of the EU Parliament, puts it clearly: “It is not the EU philosophy that the crowd can decide its fate.”

    The Western media have made it clear that they do not accept the people’s decision either. The vote is said to be “racist” and therefore can be disregarded as illegitimate.

    Washington has no intention of permitting the British to exit the European Union. Washington did not work for 60 years to put all of Europe in the EU bag that Washington can control only to let democracy undo its achievement.

    The Federal Reserve, its Wall Street allies, and its Bank of Japan and European Central Bank vassals will short the UK pound and equities, and the presstitutes will explain the decline in values as “the market’s” pronouncement that the British vote was a mistake. If Britain is actually permitted to leave, the two-year long negotiations will be used to tie the British into the EU so firmly that Britain leaves in name only.

    No one with a brain believes that Europeans are happy that Washington and NATO are driving them into conflict with Russia. Yet their protests have no effect on their governments.

    Consider the French protests of what the neoliberal French government, masquerading as socialist, calls “labor law reforms.” What the “reform” does is to take away the reforms that the French people achieved over decades of struggle. The French made employment more stable and less uncertain, thereby reducing stress and contributing to the happiness of life. But the corporations want more profit and regard regulations and laws that benefit people as barriers to higher profitability. Neoliberal economists backed the takeback of French labor rights with the false argument that a humane society causes unemployment. The neoliberal economists call it “liberating the employment market” from reforms achieved by the French people.

    The French government, of course, represents corporations, not the French people.

    The neoliberal economists and politicians have no qualms about sacrificing the quality of French life in order to clear the way for global corporations to make more profits. What is the value in “the global market” when the result is to worsen the fate of peoples?

    Consider the Germans. They are being overrun with refugees from Washington’s wars, wars that the stupid German government enabled. The German people are experiencing increases in crime and sexual attacks. They protest, but their government does not hear them. The German government is more concerned about the refugees than it is about the German people.

    Consider the Greeks and the Portuguese forced by their governments to accept personal financial ruin in order to boost the profits of foreign banks. These governments represent foreign bankers, not the Greek and Portuguese people.

    One wonders how long before all Western peoples conclude that only a French Revolution complete with guillotine can set them free.

  • The New Narrative For Earnings: Blame Brexit

    Every quarter there is always a fallback narrative put forth as to why companies fail to meet earnings expectations, and we now have that narrative for the rest of 2016 (and perhaps through 2025): Brexit.

    As we discussed yesterday, as we enter into Q2 earnings season the main focus on all earnings calls will be to what extent Brexit will impact business for the rest of the year. Will firms guide down materially due to the UK referendum, or will guidance largely not be impacted, this is going to be the main focus of analysts and investors. To wit:

    the main focus (by far) will be on the CQ2 earnings season (the first few reports will hit during the week of 7/11 but the heaviest volume will be during the week of 7/18 and 7/25). The CQ2 earnings season will be particularly important as investors are eager to hear updates from CEOs/CFOs on the extent to which Brexit-related disruptions materially impacted the outlook for their businesses. If the tone on the Jul/Aug conf. calls sounds relatively similar to the Apr/May updates (i.e. Brexit is acknowledged but doesn’t dramatically change H2 guidance) that would go a long way towards alleviating investor concern. Prior to the 6/23 referendum investors were penciling in a ~$130 SPX figure for ’17 – if that number only has a couple of dollars of downside stocks will continue stabilizing.

    Almost right on cue, here is Reuters today planting the seed that Brexit can now be used as an excuse for firms that need to lower guidance without any pushback.

    From Reuters

    Foreign exchange volatility and economic uncertainty after Britain's vote to leave the European Union have imperiled a projected profit rebound in the United States, where companies have been stuck in an earnings recession since last year.

     

    U.S. companies doing business abroad are at particular risk because of a jump in the dollar since last week's referendum and expectations of a potential stumble in European economies.

     

    A strong dollar and plummeting oil prices slammed U.S. corporate earnings starting in 2015, but the stabilization of crude prices and the dollar in recent months has led investors to bet on a return to modest growth starting in the third quarter.

     

    As the second-quarter reports gets underway in the coming weeks, executives' comments about the so-called Brexit's potential effects could alter Wall Street's expectations of when the profit slump will end.

     

    "This adds more fuel to the fire, that the so-called spurt in growth in the second-half of the year is going to be really tough to achieve," said Synovus Trust Company Senior Portfolio Manager Daniel Morgan, who believes analysts are too optimistic.

    To add to the narrative, Reuters notes that some companies such as Carnival are already warning on the impact Brexit will have on full-year earnings targets.

    Some U.S. companies are already voicing caution about Brexit.

     

    Cruise ship operator Carnival Corp (CCL.N) warned in its quarterly report on Tuesday that Britain's withdrawal from the European Union could affect global consumer confidence.

     

    Chief Financial Officer David Bernstein estimated on a conference call that weakness in the pound and euro would have an eight-cent impact on Carnival's full-year earnings per share, although he said higher customer demand would make up for that and he did not reduce his outlook.

    While it is true that there may be some impact on earnings related to Brexit, shifting the narrative solely to Brexit in order to mask the fact that the global economy is already stunningly weak is a sad, yet predictable tactic.

    And as a reminder, 2016 outlooks have been tweaked to the downside long before the UK referendum.

    As we said, none of this really matters as any and all misses that do take place will conveniently be blamed on Brexit as a "one-off" event, and P/E multiples which are already in their 99th percentile will continue to all time highs.

  • Driver In Fatal Self-Driving Tesla Crash Had Recently Posted Video Praising Car's Autopilot

    Call it a case of tragic irony.

    Earlier today, Tesla reported (with a one day delay so that perhaps its stock wouldn’t get clobbered ahead of quarter end rebalancing) that a 40-year-old Ohio man, named Joshua Brown, was killed when his 2015 Model S drove under the trailer of an 18-wheeler on a highway near Williston, Florida, sending Tesla stock lower nearly 3%.

    In its defense, Tesla said in a blog post that the autopilot didn’t notice the white side of the tractor trailer against a brightly lit sky, so the brake wasn’t applied; the company reported the May 7 incident to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Surprisingly, it took the company nearly two months to notify its shareholders of what was a material event to the business model of a company whose “autopilot” feature has been pinned as one of the core growth drivers, pardon the pun; furthermore, a virtually assured outcome of this tragic accident is a costly recall (not to mention litigation) one which will soak up even more of the company’s already massive cash burn.

    And while the details of the accident are sure to add fuel to the debate over whether self-driving cars are ready for the real world (they are not, especially when the “auto pilot” is merely a gimmick meant to boost the price of an overhyped stock, while masking the inherent flaws of a substandard luxury car by piling on even more hype), the real irony is that Brown, who was killed while using his Tesla Model S’s autopilot feature, had previously praised precisely the same feature and had posted video of Tesla autonomous driving ability helping to save him from a collision.

    Joshua Brown died May 7 in a motor vehicle accident, according to an online obituary. The same picture used with that obituary was used on the YouTube account that posted the near miss in April, and as MarketWatch reports a Florida coroner confirmed Thursday that the driver killed in the crash there was named Joshua Brown.

    In an image from an online video posted by Brown driving his Tesla Model S.

    According to the Google account linked to his YouTube, Brown was the owner and founder of Nexu Innovations, a research and development company based in Stow, Ohio, that dabbled in networking, product development and 3-D printing. His corporate bio states that he served in the U.S. Navy for more than 11 years after studying at the University of New Mexico.

    Tesla described Brown, without naming him, in its blog post as “a friend to Tesla and the broader EV community, a person who spent his life focused on innovation and the promise of technology and who believed strongly in Tesla’s mission.”

    Brown’s last post to his YouTube account was a second version of the video that received more than 1 million hits, with image stabilization turned off.

     

    In the description of the video, uploaded to YouTube on April 10, he praised the car and its autopilot features.

    Tesla Model S autopilot saved the car autonomously from a side collision from a boom lift truck. I was driving down the interstate and you can see the boom lift truck in question on the left side of the screen on a joining interstate road. Once the roads merged, the truck tried to get to the exit ramp on the right and never saw my Tesla. I actually wasn’t watching that direction and Tessy (the name of my car) was on duty with autopilot engaged. I became aware of the danger when Tessy alerted me with the “immediately take over” warning chime and the car swerving to the right to avoid the side collision.

     

    You can see where I took over when there’s a little bit of blip in the steering. Tessy had already moved to the right to avoid the collision. I was not able to slow down even more due to the heavy traffic (cars were behind me). Once I got behind him I slowly added more room between us until he exited. I was not tail gating after the incident.

     

    It was a mistake on the other driver’s part. He did not even know I was there until I honked my horn. There was a group of women in the black sedan to my left and they went nuts about the guy and what he did (all kinds of gesturing in their car). Once I was beside the truck as it slowed down on the ramp, the guy gestured a “sorry!” I gave him, “it’s okay” wave.

     

    Tessy did great. I have done a lot of testing with the sensors in the car and the software capabilities. I have always been impressed with the car, but I had not tested the car’s side collision avoidance. I am VERY impressed. Excellent job Elon!

     

    Note: I have over 39,000 miles on the car and I’ve had it since mid-July 2015. Hands down the best car I have ever owned and use it to its full extent. It has done many, many amazing things, but this was one of the more interesting things caught on the dashcam.

    Less than a month later he would be dead, having relied on the same “self-driving” feature. Perhaps it is time for the NHTSA to actually start doing its job instead of fawning over the shaky and increasingly more questionable credentials of a still very wealthy “real world Iron Man“, who in the aftermath of his shocking announcement to buy SolarCity, has in recent weeks been called a charlatan by an increasingly more vocal group of outside observers.

  • "Off The Grid" Indicators Reveal True State Of U.S. Economy

    By Nick Colas of Convergex

    Summary: Our basket of unorthodox economic indicators shows a U.S. economy that is growing, but at a very slow pace and with a notable sense of social unease.  On the plus side, used car prices are defying all expectations by remaining robust – that helps trade-in values for new car purchases.  Dealer inventories of new cars are also in good shape.  Food stamp program participation is trending lower, although +44 million Americans (14% of the total population) still need government assistance to eat.  On the cautionary side of the coin, large pickup truck sales have turned negative – a proxy for small business confidence in a range of industries.  Consumer spending per day is declining, and our Bacon Cheeseburger Index is still flashing a deflationary warning.  Lastly, the FBI reports that there have been 11.7 million background checks for firearm sales through May.  At this rate, total year sales could reach 28 million, versus 8-9 million before the Financial Crisis.

    We’ve been doing these “Off the Grid” indicator reports for years, and the most common question we get about them is “Why”?  As in “Why do we care about data points that policymakers don’t talk about?”   And “Why does any of this matter?”

    Now we have an example of why: Brexit.  To look at the standard economic talking points, the British people should have been happy to go with the status quo and “Remain”.  Consider these customary measures of employment, inflation, output, and well-being:

    On the plus side of the ledger:

    • The auto industry is a large employer of American workers who do not have a college degree. This cohort has had a tough economic time since before the Financial Crisis, and auto industry jobs pay well.  Keeping auto assembly plants running at stable line rates (and avoiding even temporary layoffs) is therefore important to this often overlooked cohort.
    • Currently, dealer inventories of cars and trucks are in good shape at 59 days supply.  The ideal number is 60.  This means as long as light vehicle demand remains constant, automakers can keep to their Q2 and Q3 build schedules.
    • Used car prices remain surprisingly robust. Auto auction company Manheim publishes an index of used vehicle values, and the most recent data shows prices remain at 2011 levels.  That’s a positive for new car and truck demand, since potential buyers usually have a vehicle to trade in at the dealer or sell privately.  The better the value of that car or truck, the more likely the consumer will be able to afford a new vehicle.
    • Fewer people are Googling “I want to sell my kidney”. No joke – this has been a top 3 autofill for Google when you enter “I want to sell my” for the last 2 years.  It has been replaced with “Furniture”.
    • Participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (aka food stamps) is slowly declining. The most current roster has 44.3 million Americans in the program, down from 45.6 million a year ago. It is hard to say how much of this is better economic conditions versus reductions in coverage (childless single people have become illegible for the program in some states).  Worth noting: even at 44 million people, that is still 14% of the entire US population.  Before the Financial Crisis, there were less than 25 million in the program.

    And some points of concern:

    • Large pickup truck sales are down year-over-year. This is one of our favorite indicators of small business growth in “Real America” (i.e. not coding the latest food delivery or dating app).  May sales were down 3.1% from last year, one of the worst comparisons since mid 2011.
    • Gallup’s consumer survey of daily spending patterns shows the average American spending $93/day in out of pocket expense, up from $91/day last year but lower than the $98/day of 2014.
    • People are buying more precious metals than mutual funds. The six month rolling averages of U.S. Mint sales of gold and silver bullion coins are: $85 million (Silver) and $65 million (Gold). Both are higher than a year ago.  By contrast, US mutual funds have seen a total of $31 billion in redemptions this year.
    • Our Bacon Cheeseburger Index – an equal weighted measure of the CPI inputs for bacon, ground beef and cheese – is still in deflationary territory for the second consecutive quarter at -2.5%. Don’t laugh – this measure of real world inflation (and therefore one that informs consumer expectations) was flashing a warning sign long before Chair Yellen and the Fed publicly revised their long term growth forecasts lower earlier this month.

    We’ll close on one point that isn’t so much economic as social – the number of FBI background checks for firearm sales. This data is available monthly, and through May it shows that Americans have done the paperwork to make 11.7 million legal purchases of one gun or more. Taking that as a run rate for the year, 2016 could see 28 million firearm sales using the FBI check data as a proxy for transactions. That compares to a three year rolling average of 21.7 million.  Since 2007, the FBI has processed over 150 million firearm purchase background checks. That is one for every two Americans.

    This is obviously a hot topic issue in a presidential election year, and we have no desire to touch this particular third rail of American politics.  From an economic and social standpoint, however, we think it is important to understand the numbers behind the debate. Before the Financial Crisis, the FBI typically processed 8-10 million checks per year. This year, that number might be 3x higher. That is a lot of guns.

  • What's The Car Preference Of Millennials? Bentley – Of Course

    As many millennials have resorted to living with their parents in order to save on expenses, it turns out that "the other half" are out driving luxury cars.

    Millennials (described as ages 19-34) who aren't living at home are are choosing premium cars and SUVs as their ride of choice ABC News reports. Bentley, the luxury British automaker first noticed the shift a few years ago as millennials starting leasing and financing vehicles such as the Continental GT in 2013, and now millennials account for a stunning 8% of Bentley sales the company said.

    "Millennials represent an increasingly important customer base. They are the largest potential customer group today, and their influence is greater than simply the money they have to spend. We believe that this generation's approach to life and social issues will have more impact than merely their money." said James Pillar, Bentley's head of marketing. For Bentley, we're sure money spent buying their cars is the top ranked impact that millennials will have.

    Manhattan Motorcars in New York City has sold 33 new Bentleys so far this year, eight of which were sold to millennials the dealership said.

    "Millennials are looking to set themselves apart. They want to be catered to, and they want a unique experience. They want to make a statement." said Danielle Weinstein, a salesperson with Manhattan Motorcars. Weinstein posts Bentley videos on a YouTube channel she set up to connect with millennials who have the cash to splurge on a luxury car (the average lease is about $2,400 a month). "Millennials are drawn to social media advertising. They come into the dealership to network. I know social media attracts millennials." Weinstein added.

    AutoTrader.com conducted a study of millennial car buyers and shoppers in 2013 and found that 32% of millennials said they "like to impress people with their lifestyle", and 40% "like to show off their taste." In addition, millennials said owning the "best brand" is important to them.

    Perfect, young and materialistic – if these millennial Bentley drivers aren't already employed by a Wall Street firm, we suggest they immediately apply.

    The luxury car of choice isn't just Bentley however, as Audi, Jaguar and Land Rover have all acknowledged an uptick in Millennial business.

    "We've seen a 23% increase in millennials coming to the brand in the past two years," said Loren Angelo, Audi's USA director of marketing.

    Kim McCullough, the company's vice president of marketing, said "Land Rover buyers are the youngest buyers of luxury SUVs, with half being between the ages of 20-48. With the recent addition of the Jaguar F-PACE and XE, preorders for those models reflect a younger buyer."

    Millennials are choosing to primarily lease instead of buy according to Karl Brauer, a director at Kelley Blue Book. "Millennials are not interested in the pure buying model, and a lot of them don't want to buy a car for the long term. Leasing also makes owning a car more affordable," adding that "they have to buy cars now. They've reached that life stage. They've got a wife and kids." – which apparently means one has to immediately go purchase a Bentley.

    * * *

    In summary, much like the rest of America and everywhere else around the world, wealth inequality is alive and well within the millennial generation especially. Either you're living with your parents in order to save on rent, or you're driving a Bentley – how can any of this end badly?

  • Defending your liberty with a rifle.

     

    “When governments fear the people, there is liberty.  When the people fear the government, there is tyranny.”

    -Author unknown, but darn sure historically accurate.

     

    So, many of you probably read James Traub’s article this week.  It seems to have caused quite a stir.

    ‘Elites’ Called To Arms: “It’s Time To Rise Up Against The Ignorant Masses

    I couldn’t help but read it in context with my earlier article, hedgeless_horseman’s Revolutionary Call to Arms.  I hope that many of you read my article and already have started to proceed through the 20 steps in order.  

    However, if you are a veteran or active duty military, I invited you to skip to items 15-18, in my article, Never forget? Most veterans don’t give a shit about America’s perpetual warfare.

    15.  Research your two senators and one congressman at https://www.opensecrets.org/ Make a list of their 10 biggest donors, and send the list to “your representative” in an email or letter.

    16.  Read War is a Racket, by Major General Smedley D. Butler.

    17.  Read On Killing: The Psychological Cost of Learning to Kill in War and Society, by Lt. Col. Dave Grossman.

    18.  Watch the online video of the TED Talk, A radical experiment in empathy, by Sam Richards.

    I certainly don’t see myself as “leadership” per Traub’s use of the term, but I do value truth, and do try to love my neighbor as I love myself.    To that end, I will continue to try to “un-delude the ignorant” (especially myself) with more of what Traub calls, “reason, expertise, and the lessons of history.”  Speaking of the lessons of history, especially in relation to Items 11-12 of my Revolutionary Call to Arms, I would like to reflect for a moment on this passage from the Declaration of Independence before getting to expertise and reason.

    “WE hold these Truths to be self-evident, that all Men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness–That to secure these Rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just Powers from the Consent of the Governed.”

    Is that “elitist”?  “All men created equal…”  Hardly.  

    Now, the Second Amendment in the Bill of Rights:

    “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”

    Is that “elitist”?  “…the right of the people [ignorant masses] to keep and bear Arms…”  It sounds rather egalitarian to me, and it is plain to understand why the elites don’t care much for the Second Amendment.

    Sorry to jump around so much, but what I am trying to get to, painfully so, is this.  Standing armies are controlled by the governments, which are now so obvioulsy controlled by the elite, and are very much a force of tyranny.  You see, local militias are controlled by The People, not the government, and are indeed, “necessary to the security of a free State.”  I understand that many of our nation’s founders agree with me on these points.  

    To quote the author of #16 on my Revolutionary Call to Arms:

    I wouldn’t go to war again as I have done to protect some lousy investment of the bankers. There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other is the Bill of Rights. War for any other reason is simply a racket.

     

    Major General Smedley Butler, USMC, 

    Two-Time Congressional Medal of Honor Winner

    Author of, War is a Racket!

    So, if you have completed my Revolutionary Call to Arms, agree with Major General Butler, agree with the Second Amendment, agree with Frédéric Bastiat’s ideas in his book, The Law, understand the costs and risks illustrated by Lt. Col. Dave Grossman, and nonetheless you still choose to be ready, willing, and able to secure a free state for yourself and loved ones, then I give you free of charge and with much brotherly love, hedgeless_horseman’s E-Z Internet Guide For The Ignorant And De-Luded ZeroHedge Reader With Too Much Money And Very Little Patience That Wants To Secure a Free State and Become A Rifleman Without Joining the US Military.

    Yes! It is another hedgeless_horseman gun article! 

    I have covered defending your life with a pistol.  

    I have covered defending your property with a shotgun. 

    Now, I cover defending your liberty with a rifle.

    Before handling a firearm, it is most important for EVERYONE in the household to know, understand, and follow these four safety rules:

    1) Treat all weapons as if they are loaded.

    2) Do not point the weapon at anyone or anything that you do not want to shoot, kill, or destroy.

    3) Do not put your finger on the trigger until you have 1) target, 2) sights on target, and 3) perception that either A) “serious bodily injury or death is imminent for myself or another person,” or B) firing range is hot and training drill is live. 

    4) Be aware of, and take responsibility for, all bystanders that may be behind or near the target.

    I add a fifth rule, to the common four, which is to not be under the influence of any mind-altering chemical such as alcohol or dope when handling a firearm.

    I absolutely refuse to be within a mile of anyone that I see not following these rules, which is why I generally avoid public gun ranges, and suggest that you shoot at a nice, lonely, high, dirt hill, way out in the boonies, or pay for a membership at a private tactical range that screens all members and guests and has at least 270 degree bays.

    First, purchase an under the bed long-gun safe, like this, for security and rapid access.

    Next, and I cannot stress this point enough, get instruction from an experienced professional.  Specifically, take at least two weekends of tactical rifle training.   It does not matter whether you are a 10-year veteran of law enforcement, a Marine with two tours in the sandbox, or both, you will still learn much and improve significantly with good instruction.   Taking the state’s required, “course,” to test for a concealed handgun license (CHL) is not even close to adequate instruction.  Usually, all the CHL course does is inform you of the laws regarding concealed carry, and assign you with some basic level of proficiency that can be used against you in court.

    A good instructor will teach you the safety rules and how to safely and correctly manipulate your rifle, including operating the safety, loading, unloading, checking if loaded, reloading, managing stoppages, managing squibs, slinging, carrying, shouldering, firing, and possibly even field stripping your rifle. It is likely that you will also learn how to hit your target, and be able to do so relatively quickly.  It takes much more practice for you to get the hits when you are under stress, shooting a moving target, lying in the mud, hiding behind cover, it is dark, it is cold and raining, and you are being shot at. 

    Nobody said it is easy being a Minuteman. It is hard, but also rewarding and fun.

    Now, on to selecting your rifle and beginning to outfit your person as a rifleman.

    From ol’ muzzle loaders where powder and ball are rammed down the barrel with a rod, to today’s breach-loaded, detachable-magazine, semi-automatic and select-fire rifles, there are many mechanisms for loading, firing, and reloading a rifle.  For hunting deer, elk, and antelope I love and adore my pre-64 Winchester Model 70 Featherweight bolt action rifle in .308 Win.  Even with my old and heavy Redfield Widefield 4x scope she is light enough to pack up and down mountain ranges above 10,000 feet, while packing the hind quarter of a bull elk.  Military and police snipers often use bolt actions because they are very accurate, as do Olympic shooters for the same reason.  On a good day with my bolt rifle, I can still one-hole 3 shots at 100m, clover leaf up to about 200m, and get a kill shot on a pronghorn well past 500m.  However, if there are multiple targets that might be as close to me as 1 meter, and which are shooting back at me (unlike a pronghorn), then I definitely want a detachable-magazine and semi-automatic rifle with which I can fire a large amount of lead downrange very quickly.  If, per chance, you live in a truly free nation where your right to bear arms has not been infringed, then, by all means, consider a select-fire version with both semi-automatic and full-automatic (or 3-shot burst) capability.  Everyone should know and abide by their local gun laws, no matter how Draconian, illogical, and unconstitutional they may be.  These laws are for your protection/sarc.  I will leave the pump action for shotguns, and the lever action in my saddle scabbard and for SASS (Life Member).

    Next, lets talk about caliber, which is the size of the ammunition.  Plagerizing Wikipedia, a battle rifle is a military service rifle that fires a full-power rifle cartridge such as 7.62×51mm NATO or 7.62×54mmR. Compared to assault rifles and their intermediate cartridges, the higher-caliber rounds provide greater power and range, though they render magazine capacity low and produce strong recoil, making them less than ideal for fully automatic fire.  And the rifles and ammunition are heavy to carry, especially for older folks that are out of shape. Here are three examples:

    M14 or new M1A 

    FN FAL or new clone 

    HK-91 or new clone 

    Assault rifles are lighter and less powerful than a battle rifle.  The two most common in the world are the Russian AK-47 (7.62×39) and the American M16 (5.56mm / .223). These Cold War era rifles have faced each other in conflicts since the early 1960s and remain the subject of countless comparisons and endless internet debate.  I own versions of both rifles, and my general assessment is that AKs are heavier and less accurate because they are usually mass produced with heavy steel parts (rolled and stamped) by vodka-soaked commies working on cold-dark assembly lines.  Whereas M16s are lighter because they are made with molded plastic and precision machined aluminum by beer-breathed rednecks working on CAD computers and expensive CNC machines, and less reliable because they are designed to shit where they eat (gas operated).

    It is important to note that both the AK-47 and M16 were originally designed as select-fire rifles by two brilliant men, respectively, Mikhail Kalashnikov and Eugene Stoner.  This means they are intended to have both semi-automatic and full-automatic capability.  Full auto means that when the trigger is pulled the rifle keeps firing at a high rate until the trigger is released, or the ammo runs out (very quickly), where semi-auto fires only once per trigger pull.  

    In my best Boris Alotovkrap accent: In Soviet Amerika, idiot politician has force genius design basterdized, because politboro decide only supreme government employees can be trusted to possess full-auto capability to defend Motherland (with few very expensive and very burdensome fascist exceptions of course).

    We are told this is not tyranny, nor does it infringe on our natural right to bear arms.

    Clearly…

    “All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others.”

     

    -Orwell’s Animal Farm

    Again, I beg of you to please…

    11.  Read The Law, by Frédéric Bastiat.

    12.  Make a list of your natural rights.

    13.  Read The Constitution of the United States and The Bill of Rights.

    14.  Read Animal Farm, by George Orwell.

     

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-06/hedgelesshorsemans-revolutionar…s

    It is important to understand that the civilian version of the M-16 assault rifles, the AR-15 and short barreled version designated M-4, are different and less capable than the original design in use by the tax-payer-funded government employees. Also, both the AK and AR have experienced subsequent redesigns to gerry rig other calibers, such as the AK-74 and AR-10, with less than superior results.

    Another important fact to consider is that battle rifles and their ammunition are much heavier than assault rifles.  When you add a magnified optic and an additional 60 to 260 rounds of ammunition, this weight difference really adds up, especially since very few rifle battles are fought entirely from the sitting position, with a bench rest, in the shade, at the rifle range, which you drove to in your air conditioned truck. 

    For example:

    6.9 lbs for M4 w/ 30 rounds 

    10.5 lbs for AK-47 w/ 30 rounds

    10.7 lbs for M1A w/ 20 rounds

    Remember my mantra for the GBH pack/Bug-Out-Bag:

    In general, when given a choice, always choose the lighter weight and/or more expensive option.  Lighter weight is fast.  Lighter weight uses much less energy.

     

    http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-19-10/fear-we-are-returning-ti…

     

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-10/elevated-freeways-are-perfect-k…

    I will say that I still employ the very light and highly reliable FN FiveseveN and PS90 as mentioned in those articles.  They are great Personal Defense Weapons (PDW), and I trust my life to them, but I wouldn’t want to use a PDW as a rifleman fighting for my liberty.

    The good news is that there are newer rifles that blend the reliability of the AK’s gas piston with the accuracy and lighter weight of the AR, and do so in a design that was meant to accommodate either 5.56 or 7.62 from its inception. The downside is that these new rifles are more expensive.  So?  Sell some stocks (preferably ALLY, CACC, and the Danish banks) and fund the fun.  I am no tax lawyer, thank the Lord, but I think that security is a legitimate business expense.  No?

    Here are my three favorite traditional style rifles that meet all of my requirements.  All are top shelf and will make you the envy of everyone down at The Club.  Choose the 5.56 option unless you are a very fit BAMF, then maybe consider the heavier 7.62, especially if you live out west with wide open spaces.

    Sig Sauer 516/716 Patrol 

    http://www.sigsauer.com/CatalogProductList/rifles-sig516.aspx  

    http://www.sigsauer.com/CatalogProductList/rifles-sig716.aspx

     

    H&K MR556A1/MR762A1

    http://hk-usa.com/product/rifles/

     

    FN SCAR 16S/Light 5.56/ 17S/Heavy 7.62

    https://www.fnamerica.com/products/tactical/scar-series/scar-16/

    https://www.fnamerica.com/products/tactical/scar-series/scar-17/

     

    Sadly, yes, they are all European rifles.  Maybe someone will make a good argument for a high quality American-made piston rifle in the comments section below, but the US Military sure does like my three European choices.

    Regarding barrel length, get the standard version, and avoid the Federal tax and registration of the shorter barrels.  It is good to be able to buy and sell a rifle at garage sales without reporting it to Big Brother.  Buy a Sig P16 pistol, in addition to the 16″ carbine, if you feel you must have a short barrel too.  

    If you don’t want to hold up a long and heavy barrel, or are small in stature, or a woman, or want to have the same rifle as your wife and kids, like I do, then consider these even more recent designs that are highly compact gas-piston bullpups, with shorter total lengths and ergonomics similar to the PS90, but in heavier and more powerful calibers.  The Tavor is Israel’s current military service rifle, and this newer version of the civilian model is supposed to be even better than the first.  I have generally not liked Kel-Tec products (probably a victim of the fallacy that price adds value), but after some familiarization I ordered some of these new .308 bullpups, in the hope that they may someday replace my beloved FNs.  We will see.  It appears the Tavor will only be available in the 5.56 and 9mm. 

    Tavor X95 5.56

    https://iwi.us/Law-Enforcement/Firearms/X95.aspx

     

    Kel-Tec RDB 5.56 / RFB 7.62

    http://www.keltecweapons.com/our-guns/pistol/rdb

    http://www.keltecweapons.com/our-guns/rifle/rfb

     

    A quick sidebar about color and camouflage on a rifle.  The human eye is very good at picking out a black rifle at a distance.  A man carrying a long black object just screams, “rifle,” or at least it does to my brain. I like to say that in a fire fight, the guy with the biggest and blackest rifle gets shot first.  I believe that Simo Häyhä would agree.  This is why I spray paint my very expensive rifles and optics in banded patterns of flat tan, brown, and/or green Krylon paint.  You may choose to purchase your rifle from the factory in those colors.  Functional dark earth (FDE) brown or Desert Tan are better for dry areas such as the western USA.  Olive drab (OD) green is better for wooded areas such as the Eastern USA.  Grey is gaining in popularity for urban environments.  And of course white is best if, like The White Death Simo Häyhä, you find yourself fighting in the snow. 

    If your spouse is pissed about how much you are spending on a rifle, don’t mention the magnified optic and tritium iron sights you are going to put on it. A rifle is only as good as the sights, especially if you are over 30 years old.  In my opinion, for our purpose here in this article, you simply cannot beat a Trijicon ACOG (no batteries, good glass, good reticle design, and absolutely bomb proof) in combination with a set of 45 degree offset Dueck Defense RTS Night Sights.      

    TA31F: Trijicon 4×32 ACOG, Dual Illuminated Red Chevron .223 Ballistic Reticle w/ TA51 Flattop Mount 

    or this one for the 7.62/.308 rifles…

    TA11E: Trijicon ACOG 3.5×35 Scope, Dual Illuminated Red Chevron BAC .308 Flattop Reticle w/ TA51 Mount

    and a set of these…

    Dueck Defense 45 degree Rapid Transition Sight with Trijicon Night Sights

     

    To carry your rifle get an Urban Sentry Hybrid Sling in matching Coyote, Olive Drab, or Grey 

    To carry additional magazines, get a Blue Force TenSpeed chest rig in matching Coyote, Olive Drab, or Grey

    To protect your sight and hearing get and wear good eye and ear protection, ear muffs, not ear plugs.  I like the Wiley-X and Smith shooting glasses.

    You can get bulk ammo online at Ammunition To Go.  You will want to start with at least 2,000 rounds and build from there, as you can easily shoot more than 500 rounds in a single weekend of training. 

    A range card is not necessary, because both the ACOG and RTS have built-in ranging capability.

    You will want to have a cleaning kit something like this. 

    Order at least 20 factory magazines to start, a couple of spare firing pins, and a spring set.

    I am not a fan of suppressors, because of the registration requirement and the extra weight.  Get one if you feel that you must, but put it in the name of a gun trust.  I hear that the waiting period is currently a few months.

    After you take some tactical rifle classes, start shooting your rifle more, gain some proficiency, and begin to read, learn, and think more about fire fights, you will likely learn that there is a trade off between the operational security of a single rifleman and the far greater effectiveness of a fire team.  To that end, I will end the article with a bit about modern day militias excerpted from the website of one here in Texas:

     

    http://texasmilitia.info/

     

    As an all volunteer force the militia differs from the military. All of our Texas Militia units are autonomous. No militia unit commands any other militia unit and we do not need a state militia commander or a centralized militia command which could be taken out or compromised. All patriots are encouraged to start at least a 3 man fire team in their neighborhood or area and build up from there.

     

    It is good if you have had some military training but realize that militia tactics differ from military tactics.The goals of military tactics are to rapidly take and then hold ground while incurring acceptable losses. The militia has no need to rapidly take ground and no need to hold ground. Rather than incur acceptable losses the militia must minimize losses. The military has body armor, medevac, doctors, and hospitals, while the militia has no medevac, no doctors, no hospitals, and few have body armor. The military has re-supply and nearly all the ammo they want while militia resources are limited and our only re-supply would be what we could take from the invaders. The militia trains to fight an extended war of hit and run attrition until the invaders lose the will to fight. The militia teaches guerrilla warfare modified military tactics not military sweep through with acceptable losses tactics.

     

    Our militia training is free of charge. Our training is focused on small unit light infantry combat tactics. 

     

    We will practice ambushes, counter-ambushes, and patrolling. We will also have class room type training so bring a note book and a pencil too. Our force on force small unit light infantry battle training with blanks will be conducted as combat simulations to learn from not as games.

     

    Your first mistake on a battlefield could be your last mistake. We all need to train and we need to train often. Most men are already proficient with a rifle. What you can learn training with us are small unit light infantry combat tactics, how to fight as a team, the art of fire and maneuver, and how to train a local defense group to fight as a team.

     

    As it says on New Hampshire license plates, LIVE FREE OF DIE.  Ironic, don’t you think, considering the wide spread use of license plate readers by the government that requires licenses to travel freely.

    Si vis pacem, para bellum, God bless the United States of America and especially Texas, and God bless each of you dear ZeroHedge readers.

    h_h

  • The Militarization Of The US Goes Beyond Police Departments"

    Originally posted at TelesurTV.net,

    Nonmilitary federal agencies have spent almost US$1.5 billion on guns, ammunition, and military-style equipment.

     The Internal Revenue Service spent nearly US$11 million on arms.

     

    A new report by a taxpayer watchdog group reveals that the growing militarization in the United States goes beyond police departments by showing how nonmilitary federal agencies are arming themselves like military units.

    The report “The Militarization of America” examines government expenditures by 67 federal agencies between 2006 and 2014 and found that they spent US$1.48 billion stockpiling guns, ammunition and other military-style equipment.

    “The recent growth of the federal arsenal begs the questions: Just who are the feds planning to battle?” American Tranparency’s Adam Andrzejewski, the author of the report, recently wrote in Forbes.

    The report states that “administrative agencies including the Food and Drug Administration, Small Business Administration, Smithsonian Institution, Social Security Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States Mint, Department of Education, Bureau of Engraving and Printing, National Institute of Standards and Technology, and many other agencies purchased guns, ammo, and military-style equipment.”

    For example, the Internal Revenue Service spent nearly US$11 million arming itself, while the Environmental Protection Agency spent US$3.1 million.

    The report also states: “The Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service spent US$4.77 million purchasing shotguns, .308 caliber rifles, night vision goggles, propane cannons, liquid explosives, pyro supplies, buckshot, LP gas cannons, drones, remote controlled helicopters, thermal cameras, military waterproof thermal infrared scopes, and more.”

    “As the Obama administration and its allies are pushing hard for an assault weapons ban on private citizens, taxpayers are asking why IRS agents need AR-15s,” wrote report author Andrzejewski. “After grabbing legal power, federal bureaucrats are amassing firepower. It’s time to scale back the federal arsenal.”

    *  *  *

    Full report below:

     

    Oversight TheMilitarizationOfAmerica 06102016

     

    *  *  *

    Are they arming themselves against terrorists or you?

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Today’s News 30th June 2016

  • Rotten To The Core

    Submitted by Robert Gore via Straight Line Logic blog,

    Coercion is inseparable from corruption. When a group coerces with impunity, it steals from, lies to, defrauds, and enslaves the subjugated. The dominant group invariably develops a morally comforting ideology of its superiority and the subjugated’s inferiority. Such relationships are the essence of corruption.

    Every square inch on the planet is subject to the jurisdiction of one or more coercive regimes, with their attendant corruption and fraud. Trillions of dollars, euros, pounds, and yen, et al., are extracted from the productive and diverted to governments, who buy political support. Trillions more are borrowed. Central banks issue fiat debt units backed only by laws mandating their acceptance and extract funding for governments via the hidden tax of debt depreciation and the hidden theft of debt monetization and interest rate suppression. Regulation allows governments to reward cronies and extort and terrorize the unfavored. Perpetual wars benefit militaries and those who supply the armaments, with part of their profits recycled to those championing war. This is pervasive, legal corruption. One can only guess at the extent of sub rosa criminality, which may dwarf it.

    Last week’s Brexit vote, in particular financial markets’ reaction, underscore the corruption and fraud, and the inevitability of its failure. Brexit is a victory for Britain’s honest producers; those who work in districts far removed from The City, London’s financial precinct. They will be freed from onerous European Union mismanagement, bureaucracy, regulations, and taxes that have contributed to Europe’s economic stagnation, dearth of innovation, and persistently high unemployment, especially among its youth. The European Central Bank’s debt monetization and negative interest rates, while obscuring the sorry state of the European economy, have only made it sorrier. Chronic debt issuance has left many European governments, and their banks, which own much of that debt, one economic or financial crisis away from insolvency.

    British voters chose to free themselves from the EU albatross, although they will still be plagued by numerous home-grown albatrosses. The pound, euro, equity markets, and oil plunged, while perceived safe havens gold, the dollar, yen, and US Treasury debt rose. (The yen is not really a safe haven, but much of the world’s “carry” trades—borrowing to fund nominally higher yielding, but risky speculations—are funded at low Japanese interest rates. When those highly leveraged trades go south, margin calls create a demand for yen to repay the underlying loans.) There were telling details amidst the carnage. Continental equity markets, particularly those of Spain and Italy and their banks, suffered far larger percentage drops than the British stock market. The British, were they to remain in the EU, would be expected to help support the Europe’s southern tier.

    When the high and mighty sing the same tune—Great Britain needs the EU more than the EU needs the British—the opposite is assuredly true. The British economy has outperformed most of Europe’s sluggards. Trying to get a fix on large banks is always a crap shoot—their financial statements are usually next to useless—but it appears that British banks and their regulators took more steps to address the problems exposed by the last financial crisis than their continental counterparts and may better withstand the coming stresses. Then again, British banks were hit just as hard as continental ones in the two days after the vote.

    Never underestimate the petulance of humiliated Eurocrats, or other poobahs for that matter. What terrifies the Eurocrats is the virtual certainty that the British economy will outperform Europe’s after the Brexit. They may cut off their constituents’ noses to spite their own faces, erecting trade barriers against British goods and services, for which Europe’s consumers will pay the price. However, trade barriers are a two-way street. Britain is an important export market, especially for the de facto leader of the EU, Germany, so cooler heads may prevail, a hope expressed by Nigel Farage in a remarkable speech to the European Parliament.

    Can anything be more corrupt than the desire to gratuitously harm another to preserve one’s power? Such corruption is the rotten core of the global economic and financial system. Its pilots are determined to fly it into a mountain, but will fight to the death any attempt to wrest away the controls. The financial markets’ reaction to Brexit has been appropriate, but anyone expecting asset prices to take one-way rides down or up in the directions they were pushed by Brexit will be disappointed.

    Global finance and global statism are Siamese twins joined at the brain, a fact made abundantly clear during the last financial crisis. Heavily indebted governments depend on the machinations of central banks and the acquiescence of markets to perpetuate their economic misrule. Governments, in turn, coddle and succor their indispensable allies. Too big to fail, bail outs, and deposit insurance are their backstops for the inherent risks of fractional reserve banking, turning it into a heads-we-win, tails-the-taxpayers-lose proposition. Central banks provide emergency fiat liquidity on preferential terms—financial market “puts”; promote cartelization, and serve the constituent banks they were meant to regulate, acting as the banks’ agents within governments.

    Brexit is a shot across the bow, but it is only a shot across the bow. Financial asset prices will continue to be supported or suppressed as the powers see fit. There is not one price in the entire firmament of markets and finance that is not pegged to continuing regimes of corruption and fraud. To transact based on such prices is a bet that a rigged game will stay rigged.

    The belief that it will is understandable, but a house of cards must fall. Political winds—Brexit and what’s sure to follow—may blow this one over; it may collapse due to its structural deficiencies, or, most likely, some combination of the two will render it rubble. The important point is that rotten-to-the-core economies and finances, resting on foundations of coercion, corruption, and fraud, have to be rendered rubble before freer, more honest, and more durable structures can be erected.

  • 71% of Americans Think the Economy is “Rigged” … They’re RIGHT

    A new poll by Marketplace-Edison finds that 71% of Americans – including “Americans from across the economic and political spectrum” – think the economy is rigged.

    They’re right

    They’re also right about how broken and totally corrupt our political system has become …

  • "The British Woke Up!" Paul Craig Roberts Asks "Can The Americans?"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    In our time to be truthful is to be provocative. To write provocatively leaves little room for error or mistatement as today’s euphemism terms it. I could shill for the establishment and be wrong 98% of the time and nothing ever would be said about it. But there is no forgiveness for a provocative truth-teller.

    You have open inquiring minds and you want to know. Your motives are not to protect your illusions and delusions or to reinforce your emotional needs. This is why I write for you.

    If no one knows or respects truth, the world is lost. But it only takes a few to change the world. The cultural anthopologist Margaret Mead said: “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has.”

    Change can be for better or worse. President Reagan and a committed few overcame the resistance of the CIA and military-security complex and reduced tensions among nuclear powers by negotiating the end of the Cold War with Soviet leader Gorbachev. During the reign of the last three US presidents, a few neoconservatives resurrected the nuclear tensions and took them to a higher level than at the peak of the Cold War.

    There are hopeful signs that the neoconservative drive to World War III can be derailed. It seems that finally the Russians have caught on that America is not the Holy Grail but a government reminiscent in its aggression of Nazi Germany. Hopefully, Russian countermeasures will make even the crazed neocons think twice.

    The British people, or rather a majority of those who voted, surprised the Establishment, which was confident of the success of its propaganda, by voting to save their ancient and distinguished country, the font of liberty, from disappearing into the EU, a dictatorship ruled by unaccountable appointees. The British had enough of that with kings and decided that the future did not lie in going backward. The British vote to exit the EU could bring the unintended consequence of unravelling the EU and NATO, thus reducing Washington’s ability to foment war.

    Americans need to decide that they, like the British, do not appreciate being led backward to worse times.

    The Clintons and the Republican Senator from Texas, Phil Gramm, led America back to Robber Baron days by deregulating the financial system. http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1877350_1877330,00.html

    The senator was rewarded with a multi-million dollar banking job for overturning Great Depression era legislation that made financial capitalism workable. Americans need to understand that capitalists do not care if capitalism works for you as long as it works for them.

    The collapse of the Soviet Union, due to the arrest of Gorbachev by hardline elements in the Communist Party, gave rise to the American Neoconservatives, a double handful of people closely tied to the Israeli government. These few people have involved America, for Israel’s benefit, in 15 years of warfare that has destroyed seven counries, with the cost to Americans of approximately $7 trillion dollars, according to Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes.

    The obviously false excuse for this destruction of peoples and resources is the myth of “terrorism.” Most “terrorist events” in the US have been sting operations organized by the FBI in order to collect the multi-billion dollar bounty that Congress gives for preventing terrorist events. How best to keep this bounty flowing than to organize a terrorist event and prevent it? It is debatable whether such events as 9/11, the Boston Marathon bombing, Sandy Hook, San Bernandino, and Orlando are false flag events or drills staged by crisis actors and presented to the public as real.

    The debt associated with 15 years of Washington’s wars is now being used to attack Social Security and Medicare. The One Percent and their “free market” apologists are determined that the elderly will pay for the wars that enabled Israel to reduce Palestine to a ghetto and for the wars that enriched the profits and power of the military-secutity complex, while inflicting a massive refugee problem on Europe.

    If the British, or enough of them, woke up, perhaps something similar can happen in America.

    From many of you I hear your frustrations with family, friends, and associates who are content with what they hear from the BBC, Fox “News,” CNN, and the New York Times. Obviously, if everyone was intelligent and could think for themselves or even had time to consider what they are told, we would not be in the state that we are in.

    Our job is to get enough people into the habit of thinking for themselves that we have the few required to change the world. (“Few” is relative. In a country of 300 million people, “few” is probably several million.)

    Arguing with friends doesn’t work. Arguments generate hostility and competitiveness. Avoid arguing. Your friends and family do not know anything. They sit in front of Fox “News” and CNN. They are brainwashed.

    Perhaps one way to approach friends and family is to ask questions. For example, how can there be 103 casualties in Orlando and no visible evidence of the massive number of ambulances and EMT personnel necessary to deal with such a massive number of casualties? I asked my readers to help me prove the official story line, and no one could come up with convincing visible evidence. How can there be such a massive event without abundant evidence?

    How can powerfully constructed skyscrapers, built to withstand airplane collisions, suddenly explode allegedly as a result of minor asymmetrical damage and scattered low temperature office fires? How can the entire contents of the towers be pulverized when there is insufficient gravational energy to accomplish such pulverization?

    How is it possible that WTC 7 came down in free fall acceleration in the absence of controlled demolition? Why doubt that there was controlled demolition when the owner of the WTC said on TV (still available online) that “the decision was made to pull the building?”

    In case you have forgotten, you “pull” a building with controlled demolition. It takes a long time to wire a building for demolition. Obviously, Building 7 was not wired on September 11, 2001.

    We are constantly informed by the President, Vice President, Secretary of State, numerous senators and representatives, by NATO commanders, by EU politicians, by presstitutes, and others, that “Russia has invaded Ukraine.”

    Take a minute and think about this extraordinary lie. Clearly, evidence is no longer a factor in determining what is occuring. Assertion only rules. Take a second to look outside The Matrix. Is it really possible that Ukraine would still exist if Russia invaded? I would bet my life that within 60 hours of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine would again be part of Russia.

    Remember August 2008 when the US and Israeli trained and equipped Georgian army invaded the peacekeeping realm of South Ossetia, killing Russian peace-keeping troops and Ossetian civilians. Putin was at the Beijing Olympics, but Russian armed forces quickly smashed the American/Israeli trained and equipped Georgian army. Putin held Geogia in his palm.

    What did Putin do after delivering this lesson in the superiority of Russian arms? He released Georgia and returned home.

    So how is it that Putin, according to the entirely of the Western political establishment and media whores, is determined to rebuild the Soviet Empire? Putin held Georgia. No power on earth could have forced him to release Georgia. But Putin withdrew Russia’s forces and released the country. The former Georgian president is now an American operative in Ukraine.

    If you consider the number of outsiders, including US citizens and the former president of Georgia, who serve in the Ukrainian government, it raises questions about the so-called “Maidan Revolution” in February 2014. If this really was a popular uprising, and not a Washington orchestrated coup, why is there such a shortage of Ukrainians to form the new government that foreign citizens have to be brought in to rule the country?

    Do not believe any official explanation of anything. Things are not true just because the government and presstitutes say so. Keep in mind that official explanations can be cover for hidden agendas. If Washington and the media have their way, we will live in a world constructed out of lies designed to hide from us the real interests being served.

    That is not the kind of world that any of us want to live in.

  • Trump Plans To Have Tyson, Ditka, & Bobby Knight At GOP Convention

    Earlier this month the mainstream media was wondering how it was going to be possible for Donald Trump to defeat Hillary Clinton, especially given all of the well known political figures that Clinton was going to be able to trot out throughout the campaign.Trump is now beginning to answer that question.

    In contrast to the Clinton political machine, Donald Trump's campaign aides are lining up some well known sports figures to appear at the GOP convention in Cleveland next month. As Bloomberg reports, Trump's convention list includes boxing legend Mike Tyson, Super Bowl winning coach Mike Ditka, former Indiana University basketball icon Bobby Knight, and NASCAR chief Brian France. Organizers said that a broad slate of other celebrities are being lined up as well.

    At an event in Virginia earlier this month, Trump told the crowd that he wants the convention to be a "winners evening" of sports celebrities and champions rather than fill the evening with politicians. "We're going to do it a little different, if it's OK. I'm thinking about getting some of the great sports people who like me a lot." Trump said.

    Trump said he'd rather sports greats address the convention as opposed to "these people, these politicians who are going to get up and speak and speak and speak." Adding that "our country needs to see winners. We don't see winners anymore. We have a bunch of clowns running this country. We have people who don't know what the hell they're doing running our country."

    Bloomberg notes that musical guests include Journey, Poison frontman Bret Michaels, Rick Springfield, and country acts Martina McBride, Rascal Flatts, and The Band Perry.

    * * *

    This should come as no surprise to anyone, as Trump has always done things his own way throughout the campaign, and The Donald clearly wants to make the race about two completely different candidates. By lining up recognizable sports figures to address the convention instead of the typical political insiders, Trump is executing the plan as intended.

    The Donald has made it clear that Tyson endorses him, and that he's just fine with that: "Mike Tyson endorsed me, I love it. You know, all the tough guys endorse me." Trump responded to the Bloomberg article by saying that Mike Tyson hadn't been asked to speak at the convention however.

  • Brexit Aftermath – Here's What Will Happen Next

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    In my article 'Brexit: Global Trigger Event, Fake Out Or Something Else?', published before the U.K. referendum vote, I outlined numerous reasons why I believed the Brexit was likely to pass. As far as I know, I was one of very few analysts that stuck to my call of a successful Brexit right up until the day of the referendum instead of slowly backing away as the pressure of conflicting polls increased. My prediction was verified that evening.

    In my post-Brexit commentary, which can be read here, I then outlined why so many analysts in the mainstream and even in the liberty movement were caught completely unaware by the referendum results. Today, however, I now see hundreds of analysts using the same talking points I argued before the Brexit, but still missing the first and most VITAL underlying truth.  The core reason why I was able to discern the Brexit outcome was because I accepted the reality that the Brexit does not hurt globalists — in the long run, it actually helps them.

    Now, I fully understand the excitement surrounding this event.  For many people it was a complete surprise because they assumed that international financiers and the ever-pervasive global elites would do anything to stop it from happening. It feels like a kind of revolution; a pointy stick in the eye of the beast. While I applaud the people of the U.K. for their ongoing battle for sovereignty, I can assure you that the Brexit is NOT an obstacle to the plans of globalists.

    What is rather amazing to me is the number of people that, before the referendum vote, were arguing that the elites would "never allow" the Brexit to continue and were thoroughly convinced they would use their influence to disrupt it.  Now, in the face of a successful vote, those same people now argue that the elites had no influence over the Brexit, and do not benefit from its passage.

    I would remind readers that it was actually "pro-EU" globalist puppet David Cameron himself that presented the prospect of a referendum to exit the EU.  While some may argue this was bungling on the part of Cameron, I think this is a rather foolish notion.  Cameron does what he is told like every other elitist owned politician.  Furthermore, the behavior of internationalists leading up to the Brexit was rather strange, hinting to me that they were preparing for a Brexit surprise.

    Globalist financiers like George Soros jumped into the markets and bet in favor of stocks going negative, indicating prior knowledge.  Hilariously, Soros' advisers are now playing damage control by claiming that Soros "lost money" on bets on the English Pound.  While they admit he did "make profits" on all of his other investments due to the Brexit, they will not say what the magnitude of those investments were, nor have they provided evidence supporting any of the information they have given to the media on his losses on the Pound.  Truly, a slapdash lazy play at spin control.

    The Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen used the Brexit as the primary reason for the latest rate hike delay, mentioning that such conditions may have influence "for some time to come".  This indicates she may have had prior knowledge of its coming passage.

    And the world’s central bankers all convened in Basel, Switzerland to take marching orders from their masters at the Bank for Internationals Settlements right before Brexit voting commenced, something they most likely would not do if the Brexit was destined to fail rather than prevail.

    Not only did the globalists through David Cameron originally introduce the concept of the Brexit vote, they also apparently knew that the U.K. referendum would succeed.

    As I originally stated in my prediction article:

    “…the failure of the EU does not necessarily mean a failure for the internationalists. For groups of globalists that promote an ideology of Fabian Socialism, a breakdown of the EU, whether partial or total, can be used as leverage for a larger and more centralized global power structure in the long term. Mark my words, when the system comes crashing down (whether after the Brexit or after another trigger event), internationalists will say that the EU failed not because it was centralized, but because it was not centralized ENOUGH.”

     

    “If the Brexit succeeds, the globalists can allow the market systems they have been inflating for years to finally crash (at the speed they choose). They can then blame those dastardly “far-Right extremists” in the U.K. for triggering a domino effect within the global financial system, conveniently scapegoating British conservatives, moderates and sovereigns for a breakdown that was going to happen eventually anyway. Their solution will once again be to argue for the end of “barbaric” conservative principles and install complete centralization and socialism as the cure.”

    Already, this narrative is being presented by internationalists in the aftermath of the referendum.

    Bloomberg writes that the Brexit “casts a dark shadow on the world’s great move to openness,” as if globalism is a bastion principle of free markets rather than the murderer of free markets and the outright tyrannical socialization and centralization of everything.  European elites are out in droves admonishing the Brexit as a move towards dangerous nationalism and isolationism. The Chinese premier is in the media warning of a “butterfly effect” in global markets caused by instability in “certain countries,” obviously referring to the U.K. and the EU.  His solution?  He wants even more “enhanced coordination” among all the economies of the world (Interpretation: more centralization).

    EU officials only continue to strengthen my predictions by calling for an EU superstate in response to the Brexit; in other words, a completely centralized Europe.

    And, Bloomberg has reported on Mario Draghi's recent call for a "new world order" in response to the UK referendum in which central bank policies around the globe are completely coordinated.  Bloomberg removed the word "NEW" from the article's title an hour after it was published.  Go figure; I guess mentioning the "new world order" was just a little too honest.

    Of course, Draghi does not mention that all central banks are ALREADY coordinated through the Bank for International Settlements, which is why numerous central bank heads were at the BIS when the Brexit vote was underway.  What Draghi is pushing for is open centralization among the world's central banks – the next step towards a single global central bank and a single global currency system.

    For more information on why the elites desire an economic crisis and what they hope to gain from it, read my article 'The Economic End Game Explained'.

    In my prediction article I also stated in part reference to the Jo Cox murder:

    “…the goal may only be to perpetuate a longer term narrative that conservatives in general are a destructive element of society. We kill, we’re racists, we have an archaic mindset that prevents “progress,” we divide supranational unions, we even destroy global economies. We’re storybook monsters.”

     

    “The murder of Jo Cox has had a minimal effect on Brexit polling numbers.  In the end, the elites may find Thomas Mair more useful as a mascot for the Brexit after the vote, rather than before the vote.

     

    So now the Brexit movement, which is conservative in spirit, is labeled a “divisive” and “hateful group”, and if the referendum is triumphant, they will also be called economic saboteurs.”

    The concept of a dangerously volatile and destructive populist movement for sovereignty is being heavily pushed in the mainstream media. The racist angle is now being implemented, with the MSM warning that racism is on the rise in the U.K. due to the Brexit campaign.

    Most if not all of the developments I warned of when I predicted the Brexit are also coming true.  So, if I am as correct about the motives behind the Brexit as I was correct about the outcome of the Brexit, here is what will probably happen in the coming months as the drama unfolds.

    Federal Reserve Catch-22

     

    All eyes will soon be on the Fed to see if the central bank behind the world reserve currency will take some kind of action to mitigate the possible negative effects of the Brexit.  The problem is, the Fed has created a catch-22 scenario here; not for them, they are happy to instigate an equities crisis as long as the timing is right.  Rather, they have created a catch-22 for the markets.

     

    If the Fed raises rates to prove they can, stock markets will see this as a shock move and initiate a sell-off.  If the Fed lowers rates or institutes negative rates, the public will see this as an act of desperation and a loss of credibility.  Really, the only safe measure the Fed can take from now on is to do nothing.  I highly doubt that they will do nothing.  In fact, even in the face of the Brexit I still believe the Fed will raise rates a second time before the end of the year.  Why?  This is what the Fed has always done as recession takes hold.  Historically, the Fed raises rates at the worst possible times.  As with the Brexit, I am going to have to take the contrary position to most analysts on this.

     

    Referendum Catch-22

     

    The globalists have conjured an interesting paradox with the UK referendum.  Look at it this way; even if you believe that the globalists were "caught off guard" by the Brexit, one must admit that it is still in their best interest to initiate a crash.

    First, the elites spent so much time warning of the doom that would befall the world if a Brexit vote succeeded, they must now fulfill their own prophecy or appear foolish and impotent.

     

    Second, if globalists and the central banks they control act too aggressively to stall a market plunge, they are sending a message to all other EU nations that they should not worry about seeking their own referendums, because the central banks will save the day if they do.  More referendums mean exponential crisis in equities.  So, markets will crash if the central banks don't act, and they will crash if central banks do act.

     

    This is all an academic discussion, though, because central bankers fully intend for the existing system to at least partially crash.  They simply want to decide the pace of the implosion.  Most will do this through jawboning and minor policy maneuvers, but not much else.  The Federal Reserve is the only wild card in this equation.

     

    Slow Grind Towards The U.S. Elections

     

    While the Brexit vote is a considerable shock to global markets, and there is a likelihood of referendums in other European nations, I do not believe the Brexit alone is enough to cause the kind of economic crisis the elites are seeking.  There needs to be a one-two punch combo here, and the second punch has not arrived yet.

     

    What form will it take?  I have no idea.  I do believe that with the Brexit drama in full swing, the timing is perfect for certain unstable EU banks, including Deutsche Bank, to announce insolvency.  This could be the next moment of shock.  That said, there are hundreds of possible trigger events ready and waiting to be exploited.

     

    So far it would appear that equities markets in particular are in for a slow grind down (with sporadic but short lived rallies) going into the U.S. elections.  I would not expect much to happen until the Fourth of July holiday has passed and I would expect low trading volume to persist until then.  I believe that by the time November arrives the global economy will be in a clear and visible recessionary mode.  This does not mean a "collapse" in the Hollywood sense will be in full swing, but our fiscal structure will be visibly worse off to even the most oblivious citizens.

     

    A Trump Presidency

     

    In light of the Brexit I’m going to have to call it here and now and predict that the most likely scenario for elections will be a Trump presidency.  Trump has consistently warned of a recession during his campaign and with the Brexit dragging markets lower over the next few months, he will probably be proven “prophetic.”

     

    Those who read my articles regularly know that I do not trust Trump and that I think his behavior signals that he is controlled opposition, but this is really beside the point.  Even if Trump is a legitimate anti-establishment conservative, his entry into the Oval Office will seal the deal on the economic collapse, and will serve the globalists well.  The international banks need only pull the plug on any remaining life support to the existing market system and allow it to fully implode, all while blaming Trump and his conservative supporters.

     

    If Hillary Clinton, a clear establishment puppet, is the chosen one, and markets crash after her inauguration, then the establishment gets the blame.  However, if Trump becomes president, and markets crash, then conservative and freedom movements get the blame.

     

    The mainstream media has been consistently comparing Trump supporters to Brexit supporters, and Trump himself has hitched his political wagon to the Brexit. This fits perfectly with the globalist narrative that populists and conservatives are killing the global economy and placing everyone at risk.

     

    Sovereignty Is The Villain

     

    Imagine that the economic and political events of our world are for the most part a cleverly staged piece of cinema. The globalists are writing a screenplay for that cinema and we are all supposed to believe that the movie we are watching is real life rather than an engineered fantasy. The Brexit in our story is an act of “evil sovereignty activists” and “right wing extremists” who lure ignorant people away from the light of globalism using “emotion” rather than logic.

     

    These conservatives and populists promote barbaric principles of nationalism that no longer serve humanity in our age of “reason” and multicultural “civility.”  Globalism is the future and pro-sovereigns are holding the world back from “progress.”

     

    This will be the narrative pressed in politics and social discussions from now on.  The story the globalists are writing is one of the terrorism of selfish freedom movements, how they brought the planet to the verge of complete collapse, and how globalism and collectivism finally “triumphed” and saved humanity.

     

    Divisions Between Young And Old

     

    An interesting and very manipulative propaganda campaign being put in motion around the Brexit is the idea that the U.K. referendum represents a division between older generations and younger generations.  The mainstream media argues that older generations in the U.K. that have already benefited from the EU are now “taking it away” from the younger generations and essentially screwing them out of their futures.

     

    Anyone who understands the root failings of the EU and the fact that it has been on the edge of collapse for the past several years knows that such arguments are patently ridiculous. The EU has been beneficial to no one except in minor part to perpetually insolvent nations and peoples.  The EU aids these folks by stealing from solvent nations and peoples.  The Scottish were extremely anti-Brexit, for example, exactly because they have become a welfare dependent society and they know where their bread is buttered.  Most Muslim refugees aren’t flooding into the EU on the premise that they plan to start from scratch and work their way towards prosperity.  They march into the EU on the promise of free goodies.

     

    Yes, according to recent polls around 73% of voters 18 to 24 years old supported the EU, but around 27% did not.  Does this 27% not count?  People aged 25 to 34 voted 38% in favor of Leave.  Anyone over age 35 was increasingly more likely to vote Leave.  Are people in their late 30's now considered "old"?  This is hardly an example of the "old" destroying the precious collectivist futures of the young.

     

    To claim that the Brexit was about young versus old is clearly a lie, but we should expect that this narrative will be pushed further.  The globalists need to own the minds of the next generation, and they hope to do so by blaming all their future economic woes on the kinds of sovereignty movements that voted for the Brexit.  The young are often desperate to believe that they are wiser than the old, desperate to assert their place in a world they don't yet understand because they have little experience in it, and desperate to prove that new ideas (usually old failed ideas rehashed) are better than traditional ideas.  The elites know this, and are quick to con the young with the concepts of futurism.

    The Long Game

    The great weakness among economic analysts and many independent analysts is their refusal to examine the long game of the elites.  They become so obsessed with the day to day parade of stock tickers and the month to month central bank policy meetings that they miss the greater trends.  We can focus intently on each drop of water that makes up a tidal wave and forget that we are at the edge of the beach staring down death.

    The Brexit is part of a globalist long game that is designed to finally and completely demonize sovereignty movements.

    Think about it for a moment — what better way to remove the only obstacle in their path? The globalists create an economic crisis and then foster conditions by which their primary opponents (liberty activists) get BLAMED for it.  They then swoop in as the heroes of their little cinema after the damage is already done and offer their solution: complete globalization.  With enough people destitute from a global financial calamity, they may very well be begging the elites for help.  This is not to say that the elites will ultimately succeed (I believe they will fail), but that does not stop them from making the attempt.

    I realize this is not what many in the liberty movement want to hear, but this is reality.  This does not diminish the value of a British movement for sovereignty, but it does demand that we temper our celebration and recognize when we are being targeted with fourth-generation warfare.  If we accept the fact that the Brexit is an event the elites plan to exploit for their own ends, then we can identify the threat and deal with it.  If we continue the delusion that the Brexit is some kind of slap in their face when it is not, then we allow them yet another weapon in their arsenal of propaganda.

  • Teachers Unions Vs Hedge Funds: The Battle Over Billions

    Randi Weingarten is the president of the American Federation of Teachers, and is a name that hedge fund managers and those on Wall Street are beginning to learn quite well.

    About a decade ago, some liberals joined conservatives in pushing to expand charter schools. As the WSJ reports, those efforts received financial support from hedge fund managers including Dan Loeb, Paul Singer and Paul Tudor Jones, who together kicked in millions of dollars toward the effort. Some involved in the effort to push for the expansion of chartered schools portrayed public school teachers and their unions as obstacles to improving education, and thus the reputation of unions took a beating.

    Enter Randi Weingarten. Weingarten was elected president of the American Federation of Teachers in 2008, and her aim was to restore public trust in public school teachers and their unions. Weingarten's federation represents about two dozen teachers unions whose retirement funds have a total of $630 billion in assets, a large portion of the more than $1 trillion controlled by all teachers unions according to the WSJ. Although the unions themselves control where the money is invested, Weingarten can make recommendations.

    Weingarten instructed investment advisers at the federation's Washington headquarters to sift through financial reports and examine the personal charitable donations of hedge fund managers, focusing on those who want to end defined benefit pensions, and entities backing charter schools and the overhauling of public schools. In early 2013, the union federation published a list of roughly three dozen Wall Street asset managers it says donated to organizations that support causes opposed by the union, and the federation wanted union pension funds to use the list as a reference guide when deciding where to invest (or not invest) their money.

    Said otherwise, if asset managers don't support unions, the unions won't invest with the funds.

    The Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, a think tank that supports increasing school choice and replacing defined benefit pension plans with 401(k)-type plans is one of the groups that wound up on the list. Lawrence Mone, its president, said the tactics amount to intimidation, and that "I don't think that it's beneficial to the functioning of a democratic society."

    To signify the importance of Weingarten's list, after KKR & Co. president Henry Kravis made the list in 2013, Weingarten received a call from Ken Mehlman, an executive at KKR. Mehlman said KKR had a record of supporting public pension plans, and Weingarten agreed – KKR was then taken off the list. Cliff Asness of AQR Capital Management went as far as hiring a friend of Weingarten and paying $25,000 to be a founding member of a group KKR was starting with Weingarten to promote retirement security. Asness was removed from the list.

    Asness continued to serve on the board of The Manhattan Institute, however in September of last year an aide to Weingarten spoke to a California State Teachers' Retirement System (Calstrs) official about Asness's continued service – one phone call later and Asness said that he was stepping down from the Manhattan Institute board.

    One hedge fund manager has been more combative however – Dan Loeb. The founder of Third Point is a donor to the Manhattan Institute and chairman of the Success Academy, which operates a network of charter schools in New York City.

    A bit more combative is an understatement – Loeb pushed back on Weingarten, and didn't seem to care about the influence she had over where funds were directed.

    As the WSJ explains

    In a March 2013 letter to Mr. Loeb, Ms. Weingarten noted his support of a group “leading the attack on defined benefit pension funds” and said she was “surprised to learn of your interest in working with public pension plan investors.” Seeking business from union pension funds while donating to the group, she wrote, “seem to us perhaps inconsistent.”

     

    The two agreed to meet.

     

    Mr. Loeb emailed Ms. Weingarten, noting his fund’s average annual return of 21% over 18 years. “I completely respect the political considerations you may have and understand if other factors dictate how funds are allocated,” he wrote.

     

    A week later, Ms. Weingarten wrote back to reiterate that unions were wary of investing with Mr. Loeb “given the political attack on defined benefit funds.”

     

    In response, Mr. Loeb asserted that it must be “frustrating” for unions to invest with funds that “have different political views or party affiliations.” He added: “At least we can rejoice in knowing that as Americans we share fundamental values that elevate individual opportunity, accountability, freedom, fairness and prosperity.

     

    The meeting was called off, and Mr. Loeb was added to the list.

     

    At a fundraising dinner that May for his charter-school group, Mr. Loeb stood up and said: “Some of you in this room have come under attack for supporting charter-school education reform and freedom in general.” He called Ms. Weingarten the “leader of the attack” and pledged an additional $1 million in her name.

     

    “Both Randi and I believe America’s children deserve a 21st century education, and I hope the day comes when she embraces the positive change created by public charter schools,” Mr. Loeb said recently in a written statement.

    As part of the punishment, Loeb eventually lost $75 million from a Rhode Island pension fund. Around that same time, a giant billboard appeared above Times Square that was not kind to Weingarten – perhaps not a coincidence.

    "We all guessed it had to be people like Dan Loeb" Weingarten said.

    After the billboard, Weingarten and the union group launched an advocacy group called Hedge Clippers, that lobbied against proposed New York legislation to increase the charitable deduction for donations to public and private schools. The group also published a report called "All That Glitters Is Not Gold," that among other things, claimed that the high fees charged by hedge funds made them unattractive investments. Furthermore, the union group is funding a campaign to eliminate the carried interest tax rate on investment income earned by asset managers, as well as filing a class action lawsuit accusing 25 Wall Street firms of violating antitrust law and manipulating Treasury bond prices.

    Other large pension funds such as an Illinois public pension fund and one of New York City's public pension funds have cut hedge fund investments. However, Loeb may have had the last laugh, as when Weingarten tried to convince a large Ohio fund to follow suit, it voted to remain invested in hedge funds, including Loeb's.

    * * *

    Regardless of a stance on this topic, this battle between Weingarten and the targeted hedge funds such as Third Point will remain an epic story to watch unfold. Also, as readers know, pension funds are severely underfunded, and given that NIRP and other insane central bank policies have created an environment where risk assets are a necessity if one wants to generate higher target returns, hedge funds may be one avenue that pension funds need to consider, whether the funds support charter schools or not.

  • One American's True Story: "How I Went From Middle Class To Homeless"

    Meet Joe. He used to make a steady income in manufacturing, but the work has disappeared. Now, he is selling everything and moving into his van. 

    Joe is one of the 71% of Americans who think the U.S. economic system is “rigged in favor of certain groups,” according to a new poll by Marketplace and Edison Research.  The poll asked a simple question: Which of the following comes closer to your opinion on the economic system in the U.S. People could select between three options:

    1. The economic system is rigged in favor of certain groups
    2. The economy system is fair to all Americans
    3. Don’t know

    Most selected rigged economy.

    As CNN adds, it didn’t matter if the person was white, black or Hispanic or whether they identified as Republican, Democrat or Independent. The majority feel the American Dream comes with huge asterisk that reads “only for the favored few.”

    Americans have good reason to think this way. The typical middle class family is earning about the same amount of money adjusted for inflation, just under $54,000, as they did in 1996.

    That means that as the rich get richer, the middle class hasn’t seen an improvement in its way of life in 20 years. On top of that, the Great Recession knocked out many people’s safety net savings as they lost jobs or homes or both. Even people who have jobs say they feel one step away from financial ruin. They fear a life of “dead-end crap jobs with crap wages.”

    People like Joe, 60, who lives in a mobile home ith his mother outside of Philadelphia and is desperate. He last held a job in early 2013: “The first seven weeks I was there we were busier than I’ve ever seen a small company be, and then like someone flipped a switch. The work just stopped.”

    “I would like to work” he says. “I still have skills and abilities and I still know how to use them. I have two associate degrees, one’s in electrical engineering, one’s in mechanical engineering.”

    He then discusses the impossible dream for the lower middle class of which he would like to be part of: “I consider $15/hour to be lower middle class. If i had been able to go permanently with a company, probably I would have reached middle class in a few years. I’d settle for lower middle class right now but even that’s almost the impossible dream.”

    So what does Joe’s future hold? “If I don’t hear back from any of these applications, if I’m not working I’ll be out of here. With out last couple of thousand dollar we got the minivan. I’ll have enough room for a sleeping back and some clothes. My mom said if you ever have to sell the house, I want you to take the lamp. I can’t take the lamp either.”

    And his morbid conclusion: “Poor people have significantly shorter lifespans than more affluent people. In fact I keep having this argument with my doctor. He keeps telling me ‘you have another 30 years.’ I tell him no, I don’t expect to make it past seventy.” In other words, Joe thinks he has another 10 years of working class purgatory before he can finally rest.

    In the video below, he is wearing sunglasses to disguise his identity.

  • "Deutsche Bank Poses The Greatest Risk To The Global Financial System": IMF

    Over three years ago we wrote “At $72.8 Trillion, Presenting The Bank With The Biggest Derivative Exposure In The World” in which we introduced a bank few until then had imagined was the riskiest in the world.

    As we explained then “the bank with the single largest derivative exposure is not located in the US at all, but in the heart of Europe, and its name, as some may have guessed by now, is Deutsche Bank. The amount in question? €55,605,039,000,000. Which, converted into USD at the current EURUSD exchange rate amounts to $72,842,601,090,000….  Or roughly $2 trillion more than JPMorgan’s.”

     

    So here we are three years later, when not only did Deutsche Bank just flunk the Fed’s stress test for the second year in a row, but moments ago in a far more damning analysis, none other than the IMF disclosed that Deutsche Bank poses the greatest systemic risk to the global financial system, explicitly stating that the German bank “appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks.”

    Yes, the same bank whose stock price hit a record low just two days ago.

    Here is the key section in the report:

    Domestically, the largest German banks and insurance companies are highly interconnected. The highest degree of interconnectedness can be found between Allianz, Munich Re, Hannover Re, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank and Aareal bank, with Allianz being the largest contributor to systemic risks among the publicly-traded German financials. Both Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are the source of outward spillovers to most other publicly-listed banks and insurers. Given the likelihood of distress spillovers between banks and life insurers, close monitoring and continued systemic risk analysis by authorities is warranted.

     

    Among the G-SIBs, Deutsche Bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks, followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse. In turn, Commerzbank, while an important player in Germany, does not appear to be a contributor to systemic risks globally. In general, Commerzbank tends to be the recipient of inward spillover from U.S. and European G-SIBs. The relative importance of Deutsche Bank underscores the importance of risk management, intense supervision of G-SIBs and the close monitoring of their cross-border exposures, as well as rapidly completing capacity to implement the new resolution regime.

    The IMF also said the German banking system poses a higher degree of possible outward contagion compared with the risks it poses internally. This means that in the global interconnected game of counterparty dominoes, if Deutsche Bank falls, everyone else will follow.

    Notwithstanding moderate cross-border exposures on aggregate, the banking sector is a potential source of outward spillovers. Network analysis suggests a higher degree of outward spillovers from the German banking sector than inward spillovers. In particular, Germany, France, the U.K. and the U.S. have the highest degree of outward spillovers as measured by the average percentage of capital loss of other banking systems due to banking sector shock in the source country

    The IMF concluded that Germany needs to urgently examine whether its bank resolution, i.e., liquidation, plans are operable, including a timely valuation of assets to be transferred, continued access to financial market infrastructures, and whether authorities can ensure control over a bank if resolution actions take a few days, if needed, by imposing a moratorium:

    Operationalization of resolution plans and ensuring funding of a bank in resolution is a high priority. The authorities have identified operational challenges (e.g., the timely valuation of assets to be transferred, continued access to financial market infrastructures) and are working to surmount them. In some cases, actions to effect resolution may require a number of days to implement, and the authorities should ensure they can maintain control over the bank during this period, including by using their powers to impose a more general moratorium for a specific bank.

    Here is the IMF’s chart showing the key linkages of the world’s riskiest bank:

     

    And while DB is number 1, here are the other banks whose collapse would likewise lead to global contagion.

    Considering two of the three most “globally systemically important”, i.e., riskiest, banks just saw their stock price scrape all time lows earlier this week, we wonder just how nervous behind their calm facades are the executives at the ECB, the IMF, and the rest of the handful of people who realize just close to the edge of collapse this world’s most riskiest bank (whose market cap is less than the valuation of AirBnB) finds itself right now.

    Source

  • Revenge Of The Rubes – Why The Days Of The Financial Elite's Rule Are Numbered

    Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

    Talk about not waiting for the body to get cold. The establishment oracles are out in force today proclaiming that Brexit has already been cancelled. Apparently, like in the case of the first negative vote on TARP, two days of currency and stock market turmoil have taught the rubes who voted for it the errors of their ways.

    The argument is that the unwashed masses outside of Greater London have shot themselves in the foot economically based on some atavistic fears of immigrants and cultural globalization. Racism even.

    But those are just momentary emotional outbursts. Right soon they will get back to where their bread is buttered, and demand a second referendum in order to re-board the EU’s purported economic gravy train.

    Thus, Gideon Rachman, one of the Financial Times’ numerous globalist scolds, professed that his depression about the Brexit vote has already given way to a worldly vision of relief:

    But then, belatedly, I realised that I have seen this film before. I know how it ends. And it does not end with the UK leaving Europe.

     

    Any long-term observer of the EU should be familiar with the shock referendum result. In 1992 the Danes voted to reject the Maastricht treaty. The Irish voted to reject both the Nice treaty in 2001 and the Lisbon treaty in 2008.

     

    And what happened in each case? The EU rolled ever onwards. The Danes and the Irish were granted some concessions by their EU partners. They staged a second referendum. And the second time around they voted to accept the treaty. So why, knowing this history, should anyone believe that Britain’s referendum decision is definitive?

    But of course Rachman’s dismissive meme is exactly why Brexit happened. The international financial apparatchiks, who have been controlling the levers of power at the central banks, finance ministries and supra-national official institutions for several decades now, have become so accustomed to not taking no for an answer that they can’t see the handwriting on the wall.

    To wit, the rubes are feed up and are not going to take it anymore. In voting to flee the domineering EU superstate domiciled in Brussels, they saw right through and properly dismissed the establishment’s scary bedtime stories about the economic costs.

    After all, the UK is a net payer of $10 billion per year in taxes into the EU budget and gets an economically wasteful dose of continental style regulatory dirigisme in return. And that is to say nothing of the loss of control at its borders and the de facto devolution of its law-making powers and judicial functions to unelected EU bureaucracies.

    At the same time, increased trade is generally a benefit, but it is not one that requires putting up with the statist tyranny of the EU. That’s because the EU-27, and especially Germany, need the UK market for their exports far more than the other way around.

    So after Brexit is triggered, the EU will come to the table for a new trade arrangement with the UK because these faltering socialist economies desperately need the exports. At the same time, the British negotiators will be free for the first time to seek more advantageous trade arrangements with the US, Canada, Australia and others.

    It doesn’t take too much investigation to see that the UK has come out on the short end of the trade stick. And contrary to globalist apologists——-persistent and deepening trade deficits are a big problem. If coupled with a weakening savings rate, they mean that a country is getting ever deeper into international debt.

    The UK economy exhibits that dual disability to a fare-the-well. Its current account has been plunging further into the red for 20 years. At 5% of GDP its current account deficit—-which includes the favorable benefits of service exports from the City of London and earnings on foreign investments—-is among the highest in the DM world.

    To put it bluntly, the UK is slowly going bankrupt.

    United Kingdom Current Account to GDP

    Moreover, the source of the abysmal overall current account trend shown above is absolutely attributable to its one-sided trade imbalance with the EU-27. As shown in the graph below, its EU deficit has been widening ever since 2000, while its trade surplus with the rest of the world has actually been steadily growing.

    This point is not about mercantilism. The bilateral balance with any particular country or trading bloc does not ultimately matter if the overall current account trend is healthy.

    Instead, the point is that the EU-27 needs British markets to the tune of a net $65 billion surplus annually. And more than half of that surplus is attributable to Germany, which earns upwards of 40% of its trade surplus with the rest of the EU from the UK.

    Continuation of an open trade arrangement, therefore, does not require the sacrifice of British democracy and home rule to the statist overlords of Brussels; it only requires a trade deal that provides mutual economic benefits and no entangling engagements with the socialist infrastructure of the continent.

    These negative trade trends are not ameliorated by a domestic savings frenzy that could finance the outflow in a healthy manner. To the contrary, the British household savings rate has been heading dangerously south for the last quarter-century.

    Domestic savers are not financing the UK’s current account; foreign lenders and central banks are.

    United Kingdom Household Saving Ratio

    The same is true of the public sector. The UK has run chronic, deep budget deficits since the early 1990s. Since then, its public debt to GDP ratio has soared from 35% to nearly 85%.

    United Kingdom Government Debt to GDP

    These data make crystal clear, of course, that the UK has a giant problem of living far beyond its means, and that all of the leftist kvetching about the conservative government’s so-called “austerity” policies is a lot of political balderdash.

    In fact, the Cameron government has buried British taxpayers in debt, even as it proclaimed its adherence to fiscal rectitude. As is evident from the chart, the only reduction in the spending share of GDP on its watch is due to the end of the global recession. At nearly 44%, state outlays still take a larger share of the economic production than they did under the Labour governments which preceded.

    United Kingdom Government Spending to GDP

    Here’s the point. Staying in the EU can not help ameliorate the UK’s real economic and fiscal problems in the slightest. What it needs is lower taxes, less welfare, and a dramatic reduction of government regulatory intervention. These are not policy directions that stir the juices in Brussels.

    So today’s noisy meme that the Brexit voters have done themselves irreparable economic harm is patent nonsense. By contrast, whether they fully understood it or not, they have liberated the UK from what will be the economic disaster of “more Europe”.

    Indeed, if there ever was a phrase that encapsulated the idea of an incendiary contradiction, “more Europe” is surely it. What it means to the French and Mediterranean Left is debt mutualization and a common treasury from which to expropriate German prosperity.

    By contrast, to the Germans it means the imposition of ever more onerous EU fiscal controls so that it can continue to kick the can of its giant liabilities for the EU bailouts and the ECB’s “Target2” balances down the road.

    These German exposures are enormous——with upwards of $75 billion already drawn on the ESM and EFSF bailout funds and Target2 balances of $700 billion at the present time.

    Indeed, the latter is a ticking financial bomb and the real reason that Germany’s historic monetary orthodoxy has given way to Draghi’s money printing madness. To wit, Germany cannot afford to permit the euro and ECB’s central banking system to blow-up.

    As a consequence, Germany has acquiesced in an insane fiscal transfer system conducted by the ECB in the guise of monetary policy.

    But Draghi’s $90 billion per month rate of QE purchases is really not about “low-flation”, private sector credit stimulation, job growth or any of the other macroeconomic variables, anyway. To the contrary, its not so hidden purpose is to flat-out monetize the debt of Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, France and the rest of the bankrupts at negligible interest rates, thereby gifting them with deeply subsidized cost of carry on their massive public debts.

    Needless to say, these Draghi confected bond rates could never be remotely attained in an honest bond market. Yet they are absolutely necessary to maintain the charade of fiscal solvency in these woebegone practitioners of welfare state socialism.

    So the doomsday machine rolls on. Currently Greece’s Target2 balance is negative $100 billion, while Spain’s is negative $325 billion and Italy’s is negative $300 billion. In short, the rest of the EU-18 owes Germany so much that permitting any country to leave is unthinkable in Berlin.

    The call for “more Europe”, therefore, does not arise from cosmopolitan enlightenment, as the mainstream media avers; it is a desperate gambit to keep alive an utterly flawed and contradiction-ridden monetary, fiscal and political union that never should have been concocted in the first place, and that is now several decades past its “sell by” date.

    By the same token, the forces of Brexit and their populist counterparts throughout the continent are not simply an instance of the rubes venting nationalistic, xenophobic, racist and other dark impulses. To the contrary, the rubes simply want their governments back, and in that impulse they are on the right side of history.

    The truth is, it is the “European Project” which represents the darker impulses. The Brussels/Frankfurt rule of the financial elite has little to do with free trade or the maintenance of peaceful relationships among the states of Europe, and nothing at all to do with furthering capitalist prosperity.

    Instead, it is a tyranny based on a muddled brew of globalism, statism, financialization and the cult of central banking. It’s days are numbered because even the rubes can see that it doesn’t work, and that its massive internal contradictions are heading for a spectacular implosion.

    The British voters have decided to get out of harms’ way. Hopefully, there will soon be many other cases of the rubes in revolt.

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Today’s News 29th June 2016

  • 16 Reasons To Celebrate Brexit's Win

    Submitted by Doug Bandow via NationalInterest.org,

    Watching the Brexit campaign generated mixed feelings: it was a little like the man who saw his mother-in-law drive his new Mercedes off a cliff. In the United Kingdom, some people who hated free trade, immigration and market innovation challenged the officious, wannabe superstate headquartered in Brussels. Who to cheer for?

    We should cheer for the Brexiteers, who deserve at least a couple of hurrahs. The European Union created a common market throughout the continent, an undoubted good, but since then has focused on becoming a meddling Leviathan like Washington, DC. For Britain, the virtues of remaining appeared to pale in comparison to the likely costs of continued subservience to Brussels. In a variety of imperfect ways, Brexit promoted liberty, community, democracy and the rule of law. In short, the good guys won.

    Here are sixteen reasons why the United Kingdom was better off Brexiting:

    1. Average folks took on the commanding heights of politics, business, journalism and academia and triumphed. Obviously, the “little guy” isn’t always right, but the fact he can win demonstrates that a system whose pathways remain open to those the Bible refer to as “the least of these.” The wealthiest, best-organized and most publicized factions don’t always win.

     

    2. Told to choose between economic bounty and self-governance, a majority of Britons chose the latter. It’s a false choice in this case, but people recognized that the sum of human existence is not material. The problem is not just the decisions previously taken away from those elected to govern the UK; it’s also the decisions that would have been taken away in the future had “Remain” won.

     

    3. Those governed decided that they should make fundamental decisions about who would rule over them. The Eurocrats, a gaggle of politicians, bureaucrats, journalists, academics, lobbyists and businessmen were determined to achieve their ends no matter what the European people thought. A constitution rejected? Use a treaty. A treaty rejected? Vote again. A busted monetary union? Force a political union. And never, ever consult the public. No longer, said the British.

     

    4. The rule of law will be respected—or at least not flagrantly flouted. Those signing up as EU members did not realize that the EU would be a transfer union. At least some countries likely would not have ratified the Lisbon Treaty, expanding Brussels’ writ, had they realized that explicit strictures against bailouts would be ostentatiously ignored. No doubt the usual suspects believed they were doing the Lord’s work by violating legal guarantees. But today no one living under the EU has any assurance that laws made, rules issued and promises offered would be kept.

     

    5. Routine incantations of the need for “more Europe” and importance of “European solidarity” no longer will be confused with arguments. Those in charge always want more—more money to distribute, publicity to satisfy, rules to enforce and power to wield. Their vision of “more Europe” is Europe giving them more. “European solidarity” means others caring for them after they have wasted everything under their control.

     

    6. Democracy will have triumphed over bureaucratic inertia. The EU is known for its “democratic deficit”, a Hydra-headed, unelected executive and a parliament chosen by people usually voting on domestic issues, using the polls for the European Parliament to punish errant governments at home. The Brussels bureaucracy has become the perfect means to impose policies that lack political support among member governments and peoples.

     

    7. The pretensions of the EU as Weltmacht never looked so silly. There is a flag that no one salutes, and an anthem no one sings. There are multiple presidents: three, four or five? There is enervating duplication, including an EU foreign minister and diplomatic service along with those representing twenty-eight individual member states. Constant talk of creating a continental military while countries steadily shrink military outlays. Insistence that all which is good and decent comes from the EU as ever more people organize and vote against it.

     

    8. The great satisfaction of watching smug smiles disappear from the faces of Eurocrats on both sides of the English Channel. The Brexit battle never was supposed to be a fair contest. It was intended to solve a Tory political problem, allowing the irreconcilables to make fools of themselves while the best and brightest led voters to the light. But it didn’t work out that way.

     

    9. Demonstrating that other EU members can throw off the cloak of, if not tyranny, bureaucratic obsession. Most previous continental episodes of unplanned independent thinking were crushed—the French and Dutch votes against the constitution, the Irish vote against the Treaty of Lisbon, opposition to bailouts and European Central Bank abuses. The Eurocrats always seemed to win. Until now.

     

    10. The recognition that most human decisions are not wrong but different, and need not be uniform across a continent, especially one made up of such diverse peoples. Common economic regulations, currencies, employment policies, weights and measures, farm programs and legal rights are convenient. However, convenience is not the highest good. People often value different approaches and standards and are entitled to live their lives as they wish, even if inconsistent with the continent’s most progressive thinking.

     

    11. England, which pays most of the bills, ignored political blackmail from Scotland, which threatened to hold another independence referendum. It’s not clear why the Scots didn’t choose to leave in 2014. One suspects too many of them were hooked on subsidies from London, which raised the question why the English were so determined for the Scots to stay. Anyway, in the EU poll the English felt as free as the Scots to vote as they wished.

     

    12. The Brits ignored silly scaremongering about how Europe and, indeed, Western civilization, would be threatened if the UK left the EU. Britain would still be a member of NATO—just as Turkey belongs to the military alliance but not the EU. The latter is irrelevant to security: Proposals for an EU military have gone nowhere, in part due to steadfast British opposition. At the margin a more hawkish London might push the EU in a slightly more hawkish direction in the few cases, like Russia, when the continent moved together. But if Vladimir Putin really were the next Hitler, slightly less anemic sanctions wouldn’t stop him. World peace does not depend on Britain in or out of the EU.

     

    13. Schadenfreude is a terrible thing, but almost all of us glory in the misfortune of at least some others. The recriminations among the Remain camp in Britain are terrible to behold. Labour Party tribunes blame their leader Jeremy Corbyn, whose Euroskeptic past created suspicions inflamed by his criticisms of the EU while nominally praising it. His supporters blame the Scottish nationalists for not turning out their voters. Former Liberal-Democrat Party leader and deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg trashed Cameron and Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne for seeking political advantage by holding the referendum. The Scots are mad at the English. Irish “republicans” in Northern Ireland also are denouncing the English, while their longtime unionist rivals are trashing the republicans. The young are blaming the old for ruining their futures. Apparently, America isn’t the only home for myopic bickering.

     

    14. Sometimes the advocate of a lost cause triumphs. Nigel Farage has been campaigning against the EU forever, it seems. Yet every advance appeared to trigger a retreat. His United Kingdom Independence Party picked up support, but then had to shed some of those whose views really were beyond the pale. UKIP was able to break into the European Parliament, which it hated, but won only one seat at Westminster, despite receiving 3.9 million votes, or 12.6 percent of the total, in last year’s election. One reason was that Cameron and the Tories stole his issue, promising a referendum on the EU—in which they then opposed separation. Election night he admitted that it looked like the UK would choose to remain. Except the British people ended up taking his advice.

     

    15. A bracing reminder that people want to believe that their views matter, that what they do actually makes a difference and those claiming to represent them actually listen. Today’s political consensus, in which certain concerns are treated as inappropriate for polite company, drive otherwise normal decent folk to the fringes to find political champions willing to speak for them. Debating such ideas might threaten values and policies held by those steeped in modernity and liberalism, including people like me. But otherwise frustration will boil over in far more dangerous ways.

     

    16. The pleasure of disrupting a choreographed ending amid much crying and gnashing of teeth. Election night began with the comfortable assumption among those at the top of the social pyramid that the forces of tolerance, diversity and rationality had carried the day. Then came the shock of watching Brexit improbably take the lead in early returns. Remain “victory” parties emptied and politicians who orchestrated the Remain campaign contemplated the ruin of their careers. Those at the top suddenly found themselves in the political queue well behind their rural and working class compatriots.

    Could Brexit turn out to be a mistake? Yes. Unfortunately, we live in an uncertain world with imperfect knowledge. We can only guess at the future. Both the UK and EU must handle separation with maturity unusual for politicians, especially those in Brussels. Europeans should apply the important lessons learned in changing EU policy and operations. The Brits must unilaterally follow an outward economic and political policy. None of these will be easy and much could go wrong.

    However, Britain has been capably governing itself for hundreds if not thousands of years. In that light, Brexit appears likely promote the right people and ends. At its best, Britain’s departure will revive the UK’s most basic principles of self-governance and spur EU members to rethink the “European Project’s” attempt to create a superstate by stealth. Those wouldn’t be bad results for a measure that was never supposed to have much chance of passing.

  • Bernie Sanders: The World Is Rejecting Globalization

    Authored by Bernie Sanders, originally posted Op-Ed via The NY Times,

    Surprise, surprise. Workers in Britain, many of whom have seen a decline in their standard of living while the very rich in their country have become much richer, have turned their backs on the European Union and a globalized economy that is failing them and their children.

    And it’s not just the British who are suffering. That increasingly globalized economy, established and maintained by the world’s economic elite, is failing people everywhere. Incredibly, the wealthiest 62 people on this planet own as much wealth as the bottom half of the world’s population — around 3.6 billion people. The top 1 percent now owns more wealth than the whole of the bottom 99 percent. The very, very rich enjoy unimaginable luxury while billions of people endure abject poverty, unemployment, and inadequate health care, education, housing and drinking water.

    Could this rejection of the current form of the global economy happen in the United States? You bet it could.

    During my campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, I’ve visited 46 states. What I saw and heard on too many occasions were painful realities that the political and media establishment fail even to recognize.

    In the last 15 years, nearly 60,000 factories in this country have closed, and more than 4.8 million well-paid manufacturing jobs have disappeared. Much of this is related to disastrous trade agreements that encourage corporations to move to low-wage countries.

    Despite major increases in productivity, the median male worker in America today is making $726 dollars less than he did in 1973, while the median female worker is making $1,154 less than she did in 2007, after adjusting for inflation.

    Nearly 47 million Americans live in poverty. An estimated 28 million have no health insurance, while many others are underinsured. Millions of people are struggling with outrageous levels of student debt. For perhaps the first time in modern history, our younger generation will probably have a lower standard of living than their parents. Frighteningly, millions of poorly educated Americans will have a shorter life span than the previous generation as they succumb to despair, drugs and alcohol.

    Meanwhile, in our country the top one-tenth of 1 percent now owns almost as much wealth as the bottom 90 percent. Fifty-eight percent of all new income is going to the top 1 percent. Wall Street and billionaires, through their “super PACs,” are able to buy elections.

    On my campaign, I’ve talked to workers unable to make it on $8 or $9 an hour; retirees struggling to purchase the medicine they need on $9,000 a year of Social Security; young people unable to afford college. I also visited the American citizens of Puerto Rico, where some 58 percent of the children live in poverty and only a little more than 40 percent of the adult population has a job or is seeking one.

    Let’s be clear. The global economy is not working for the majority of people in our country and the world. This is an economic model developed by the economic elite to benefit the economic elite. We need real change.

    But we do not need change based on the demagogy, bigotry and anti-immigrant sentiment that punctuated so much of the Leave campaign’s rhetoric — and is central to Donald J. Trump’s message.

    We need a president who will vigorously support international cooperation that brings the people of the world closer together, reduces hypernationalism and decreases the possibility of war. We also need a president who respects the democratic rights of the people, and who will fight for an economy that protects the interests of working people, not just Wall Street, the drug companies and other powerful special interests.

    We need to fundamentally reject our “free trade” policies and move to fair trade. Americans should not have to compete against workers in low-wage countries who earn pennies an hour. We must defeat the Trans-Pacific Partnership. We must help poor countries develop sustainable economic models.

    We need to end the international scandal in which large corporations and the wealthy avoid paying trillions of dollars in taxes to their national governments.

    We need to create tens of millions of jobs worldwide by combating global climate change and by transforming the world’s energy system away from fossil fuels.

    We need international efforts to cut military spending around the globe and address the causes of war: poverty, hatred, hopelessness and ignorance.

    The notion that Donald Trump could benefit from the same forces that gave the Leave proponents a majority in Britain should sound an alarm for the Democratic Party in the United States. Millions of American voters, like the Leave supporters, are understandably angry and frustrated by the economic forces that are destroying the middle class.

    In this pivotal moment, the Democratic Party and a new Democratic president need to make clear that we stand with those who are struggling and who have been left behind. We must create national and global economies that work for all, not just a handful of billionaires.

    * * *

    In other words – unless Hillary can put her special interest crony-capitalist history behind her (and impossible task against Trump's 'take no prisoners' approach) she will have to distract (to standa chance) by putting Bernie on the ticket as VP… Or Trump's gonna win.

  • "We The Prisoners": The Demise Of The Fourth Amendment

    Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “Our carceral state banishes American citizens to a gray wasteland far beyond the promises and protections the government grants its other citizens… When the doors finally close and one finds oneself facing banishment to the carceral state—the years, the walls, the rules, the guards, the inmates…the incarcerated begins to adjust to the fact that he or she is, indeed, a prisoner. New social ties are cultivated. New rules must be understood.”

    – Ta-Nehisi Coates, The Atlantic

    In a carceral state – a.k.a. a prison state or a police state – there is no Fourth Amendment to protect you from the overreaches, abuses, searches and probing eyes of government overlords.

    In a carceral state, there is no difference between the treatment meted out to a law-abiding citizen and a convicted felon: both are equally suspect and treated as criminals, without any of the special rights and privileges reserved for the governing elite.

    In a carceral state, there are only two kinds of people: the prisoners and the prison guards.

    With every new law enacted by federal and state legislatures, every new ruling handed down by government courts, and every new military weapon, invasive tactic and egregious protocol employed by government agents, “we the people”—the prisoners of the American police state—are being pushed that much further into a corner, our backs against the prison wall.

    This concept of a carceral state in which we possess no rights except for that which the government grants on an as-needed basis is the only way I can begin to comprehend, let alone articulate, the irrational, surreal, topsy-turvy, through-the-looking-glass state of affairs that is being imposed upon us in America today.

    As I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, we who pretend we are free are no different from those who spend their lives behind bars.

    Indeed, we are experiencing much the same phenomenon that journalist Ta-Nehisi Coates ascribes to those who are banished to a “gray wasteland far beyond the promises and protections the government grants its other citizens” : a sickening feeling, a desire to sleep, hopelessness, shame, rage, disbelief, clinginess to the past and that which is familiar, and then eventually resignation and acceptance of our new “normal.”

    All that we are experiencing—the sense of dread at what is coming down the pike, the desperation, the apathy about government corruption, the deeply divided partisanship, the carnivalesque political spectacles, the public displays of violence, the nostalgia for the past—are part of the dying refrain of an America that is fading fast.

    No longer must the government obey the law.

    Likewise, “we the people” are no longer shielded by the rule of law.

    While the First Amendment—which gives us a voice—is being muzzled, the Fourth Amendment—which protects us from being bullied, badgered, beaten, broken and spied on by government agents—is being disemboweled.

    For instance, in a recent 5-3 ruling in Utah v. Strieff, the U.S. Supreme Court opened the door for police to stop, arrest and search citizens without reasonable suspicion or probable cause, effectively giving police a green light to embark on a fishing expedition of one’s person and property, rendering Americans completely vulnerable to the whims of any cop on the beat.

    In a blistering dissent, Justice Sonia Sotomayor blasted the court: “This case allows the police to stop you on the street, demand your identification, and check it for outstanding traffic warrants—even if you are doing nothing wrong… So long as the target is one of the many millions of people in this country with an outstanding arrest warrant, anything the officer finds in a search is fair game for use in a criminal prosecution. The officer’s incentive to violate the Constitution thus increases…”

    Just consider some of the many other ways in which the Fourth Amendment—which ensures that the government can’t harass you, let alone even investigate you, without probable cause—has been weakened and undermined by the courts, the legislatures and various government agencies and operatives.

    Americans have no protection against mandatory breathalyzer tests at a police checkpoint, although mandatory blood draws violate the Fourth Amendment.

     

    Ignorance of the law is defensible if you work for the government.

     

    Police officers can use lethal force in car chases without fear of lawsuits.

     

    Police can perform a “no-knock” raid as long as they have a reasonable suspicion that knocking and announcing their presence would be dangerous or futile.

     

    Police can carry out warrantless searches on homes, cars, persons and property based on a “reasonable” concern that a suspect (or occupant) might be attempting to flee or destroy evidence.

     

    Police can forcibly take your DNA, whether or not you’ve been convicted of a crime.

     

    Police can subject Americans to virtual strip searches, no matter the “offense.”

     

    Police have free reign to use drug-sniffing dogs as “search warrants on leashes.”

     

    Police can conduct sobriety and “information-seeking” checkpoints.

     

    Police officers are free to board a bus, question passengers, and ask for consent to search without notifying them of their right to refuse.

     

    Police can arrest you for minor criminal offenses, such as a misdemeanor seatbelt violation, punishable only by a fine.

     

    Refusing to answer when a policeman asks “What’s your name?” can rightfully be considered a crime. No longer do Americans, even those not charged with any crime, have the right to remain altogether silent when stopped and questioned by a police officer.

     

    Police may stop any vehicle as long as they have reasonable cause to believe that a traffic violation occurred. A vehicle can be stopped even if the driver has not committed a traffic offense.

     

    Police officers can stop cars based only on “anonymous” tips. Police can also pull you over if you are driving too carefully, with a rigid posture, taking a scenic route, and have acne.

    What many Americans fail to understand is the devastating amount of damage that can be done to one’s freedoms long before a case ever makes its way to court by government agents who are violating the Fourth Amendment at every turn. This is how freedoms, long undermined, can give way to tyranny through constant erosion and become part of the fabric of the police state through constant use.

    Phone and email surveillance, databases for dissidents, threat assessments, terror watch lists, militarized police, SWAT team raids, security checkpoints, lockdowns, roadside strip searches: there was a time when any one of these encroachments on our Fourth Amendment rights would have roused the public to outrage. Today, such violations are shrugged off matter-of-factly by Americans who have been assiduously groomed to accept the intrusions of the police state into their private lives.

    So when you hear about the FBI hacking into Americans’ computers without a warrant with the blessing of the courts, or states assembling and making public terror watch lists containing the names of those who are merely deemed suspicious, or the police knocking on the doors of activists in advance of political gatherings to ascertain their plans for future protests, or administrative government agencies (such as the FDA, Small Business Administration, Smithsonian, Social Security, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Mint, and Department of Education) spending millions on guns and ammunition, don’t just matter-of-factly file it away in that part of your brain reserved for things you may not like but over which you have no control.

    It’s true that there may be little the average person can do to push back against the police state on a national level, but there remains some hope at the local level as long as we recognize that the only way the police state can truly acquire and retain power is if we relinquish it through our negligence, complacence and ignorance.

    Unfortunately, we have been utterly brainwashed into believing the government’s propaganda and lies. Americans actually celebrate with perfect sincerity the anniversary of our independence from Great Britain without ever owning up to the fact that we are as oppressed now—more so, perhaps, thanks to advances in technology—than we ever were when Redcoats stormed through doorways and subjected colonists to the vagaries of a police state.

    You see, by gradually whittling away at our freedoms—free speech, assembly, due process, privacy, etc.—the government has, in effect, liberated itself from its contractual agreement to respect our constitutional rights while resetting the calendar back to a time when we had no Bill of Rights to protect us from the long arm of the government.

    Aided and abetted by the legislatures, the courts and Corporate America, the government has been busily rewriting the contract (a.k.a. the Constitution) that establishes the citizenry as the masters and agents of the government as the servants. We are now only as good as we are useful, and our usefulness is calculated on an economic scale by how much we are worth – in terms of profit and resale value – to our “owners.”

    Under the new terms of this one-sided agreement, the government and its many operatives have all the privileges and rights and “we the prisoners” have none.

  • Farage Slams The EU Parliament: "You're Not Laughing Now Are You?"

    In his first appearance in European Parliament since the Brexit vote, UKIP leader Nigel Farage was greeted with raucous jeers and boos (presumably for enabling The Brits to exercise their democratic right to self-determination). Once EU President Martin Schulz had demanded (ironically) that they listen, Farage began his ‘victory’ speech by reminding his so-called peers of their laughter when he first suggested UK should leave The EU – “you’re not laughing now… are you!”

    “..and the reason you’re so upset, the reason you’re so angry, the reason you’re not laughing is simple – you as a political project are in denial”

     

    Other MEPs were vocal…

    Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission

    “Europe isn’t exclusively a cerebral affair. Obviously we have to think but equally when you’re sad, it’s acceptable to be sad and I am sad after this vote in the UK and I make no secret of it. The British vote has cut off one of our wings, as it were, but we’re still flying.”

    Guy Verhofstadt, leader of the EU Liberal group

    “What makes it so hard for me…is the way it succeeded. The absolutely negative campaign. Mr Farage’s posters showing refugees like in Nazi propaganda, which he copied at that moment. I never thought it was possible that somebody in this house should do a thing like that.”

    Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right French National Front

    “The British have chosen a route which it was thought was closed for all time and you were some of those who believed it was closed. Those who said ‘It’s all irreversible, the European Union is irreversible’, well, the British people have told you where to get off.”

    Martina Anderson, MEP for Irish republican party Sinn Fein

    “If English votes drag us out of the EU that would be like Britannia waives the rules. There was a democratic vote. We voted to remain. I tell you that the last thing that the people of Ireland need is an EU border with 27 member states stuck right in the middle of it.”

    Alyn Smith, MEP for the Scottish Green Party

    “We will need cool heads and warm hearts but please remember this – Scotland did not let you down. I beg you: do not let Scotland down now.”

  • Nigel Farage Batters Obama: "He Came To Britain And Behaved Disgracefully"

    Back in April President Obama took a trip over to the UK in order to lecture another country on how to vote – Obama of course was staunchly in the Remain camp. Obama even penned an op-ed titled: "As your friend, let me say that the EU makes Britain even greater."

    Of course, we all know the historic outcome of the Brexit vote, and we have even asked if it was Barack Obama who actually was the deciding factor:

    UKIP leader Nigel Farage has never been shy of course, but lately has been making sure to remember all of those who tried to downplay or influence the vote. For example, in his first appearance in the European Parliament since the Brexit vote, Farage took the time to make sure the audience knew he hadn't forgotten that everyone laughed when Farage said that he was going to lead a campaign to get Britain to leave the EU, saying "You're not laughing now are you."

    Farage hadn't forgotten Obama's attempt to influence the vote either. In a recent interview with Fox News, Farage was asked what can be done about Putin if the UK isn't in the EU, to which Farage raged that Obama had behaved disgracefully when compared to Putin.

    "Well ultimately let me say this, Vladimir Putin behaved in a more statesmanlike manner than President Obama did in this referendum campaign. Obama came to Britain and I think behaved disgracefully, telling us we'd be at the back of the queue. Treating us, America's strongest, oldest ally, in this extraordinary way. Vladimir Putin maintained his silence throughout the whole campaign."

    * * *

    Oh that does it, Obama won't be inviting Farage on any of the remaining 36-hold golf outings!

  • Doug Casey Debunks The Common Excuses for "Staying" In One Country

    Submitted by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

    Tell a person that it's a big beautiful world, full of fresh opportunities and a sense of freedom that is just not available by staying put and you will inevitably be treated to a litany of reasons why expanding your life into more than one country just isn't practical.

    Let's consider some of those commonly stated reasons, and why they might be unjustified. While largely directed at Americans, these are also applicable to pretty much anyone from any country (for example, Britain… or Germany).

    "America is the best country in the world. I'd be a fool to leave."

    That was absolutely true, not so very long ago. America certainly was the best – and it was unique. But it no longer exists, except as an ideal. The geography it occupied has been co-opted by the United States, which today is just another nation-state. And, most unfortunately, one that's become especially predatory toward its citizens.

    "My parents and grandparents were born here; I have roots in this country."

    An understandable emotion; everyone has an atavistic affinity for his place of birth, including your most distant relatives born long, long ago, and far, far away. I suppose if Lucy, apparently the first more-or-less human we know of, had been able to speak, she might have pled roots if you'd asked her to leave her valley in East Africa. If you buy this argument, then it's clear your forefathers, who came from Europe, Asia, or Africa, were made of sterner stuff than you are.

    "I'm not going to be unpatriotic."

    Patriotism is one of those things very few even question and even fewer examine closely. I'm a patriot, you're a nationalist, he's a jingoist. But let's put such a tendentious and emotion-laden subject aside. Today a true patriot – an effective patriot – would be accumulating capital elsewhere, to have assets he can repatriate and use for rebuilding when the time is right. And a real patriot understands that America is not a place; it's an idea. It deserves to be spread.

    "I can't leave my aging mother behind."

    Not to sound callous, but your aging parent will soon leave you behind. Why not offer her the chance to come along, though? She might enjoy a good live-in maid in your own house (which I challenge you to get in the U.S.) more than a sterile, dismal, and overpriced old people's home, where she's likely to wind up.

    "I might not be able to earn a living."

    Spoken like a person with little imagination and even less self-confidence. And likely little experience or knowledge of economics. Everyone, everywhere, has to produce at least as much as he consumes – that won't change whether you stay in your living room or go to Timbuktu. In point of fact, though, it tends to be easier to earn big money in a foreign country, because you will have knowledge, experience, skills, and connections the locals don't.

    "I don't have enough capital to make a move."

    Well, that was one thing that kept serfs down on the farm. Capital gives you freedom. On the other hand, a certain amount of poverty can underwrite your freedom, since possessions act as chains for many.

    "I'm afraid I won't fit in."

    The real danger that's headed your way is not fitting in at home. This objection is often proffered by people who've never traveled abroad. Here's a suggestion. If you don't have a valid passport, apply for one tomorrow morning. Then, at the next opportunity, book a trip to somewhere that seems interesting. Make an effort to meet people. Find out if you're really as abject a wallflower as you fear.

    "I don't speak the language."

    It's said that Sir Richard Burton, the 19th century explorer, spoke 10 languages fluently and 15 more "reasonably well." I've always liked that distinction although, personally, I'm not a good linguist. And it gets harder to learn a language as you get older – although it's also true that learning a new language actually keeps your brain limber. In point of fact, though, English is the world's language. Almost anyone who is anyone, and the typical school kid, has some grasp of it.

    "I'm too old to make such a big change."

    Yes, I guess it makes more sense to just take a seat and await the arrival of the Grim Reaper. Or perhaps, is your life already so exciting and wonderful that you can't handle a little change? Better, I think, that you might adopt the attitude of the 85-year-old woman who has just transplanted herself to Argentina from the frozen north. Even after many years of adventure, she simply feels ready for a change and was getting tired of the same old people with the same old stories and habits.

    "I've got to wait until the kids are out of school. It would disrupt their lives."

    This is actually one of the lamest excuses in the book. I'm sympathetic to the view that kids ought to live with wolves for a couple of years to get a proper grounding in life – although I'm not advocating anything that radical. It's one of the greatest gifts you can give your kids: to live in another culture, learn a new language, and associate with a better class of people (as an expat, you'll almost automatically move to the upper rungs – arguably a big plus). After a little whining, the kids will love it. When they're grown, if they discover you passed up the opportunity, they won't forgive you.

    "I don't want to give up my U.S. citizenship."

    There's no need to. Anyway, if you have a lot of deferred income and untaxed gains, it can be punitive to do so; the U.S. government wants to keep you as a milk cow. But then, you may cotton to the idea of living free of any taxing government while having the travel documents offered by several. And you may want to save your children from becoming cannon fodder or indentured servants should the U.S. re-institute the draft or start a program of "national service" – which is not unlikely.

    But these arguments are unimportant. The real problem is one of psychology. In that regard, I like to point to my old friend Paul Terhorst, who 30 years ago was the youngest partner at a national accounting firm. He and his wife, Vicki, decided that "keeping up with the Joneses" for the rest of their lives just wasn't for them. They sold everything – cars, house, clothes, artwork, the works – and decided to live around the world. Paul then had the time to read books, play chess, and generally enjoy himself. He wrote about it in Cashing In on the American Dream: How to Retire at 35. As a bonus, the advantages of not being a tax resident anywhere and having time to scope out proper investments has put Paul way ahead in the money game. He typically spends about half his year in Argentina; we usually have lunch every week when in residence.

    I could go on. But perhaps it's pointless to offer rational counters to irrational fears and preconceptions. As Gibbon noted with his signature brand of irony, "The power of instruction is seldom of much efficacy, except in those happy dispositions where it is almost superfluous."

    Let me be clear: in my view, the time to internationally diversify your life is getting short. And the reasons for looking abroad are changing.

    In the past, the best argument for expatriation was an automatic increase in one's standard of living. In the '50s and '60s, a book called Europe on $5 a Day accurately reflected all-in costs for a tourist. In those days a middle-class American could live like a king in Europe. But those days are long gone. Now it's the rare American who can afford to visit Europe except on a cheesy package tour. That situation may actually improve soon, if only because the standard of living in Europe is likely to fall even faster than in the U.S. But the improvement will be temporary. One thing you can plan your life around is that, for the average American, foreign travel is going to become much more expensive in the next few years as the dollar loses value at an accelerating rate.

    Affordability is going to be a real problem for Americans, who've long been used to being the world's "rich guys." But an even bigger problem will be presented by foreign exchange controls of some nature, which the government will impose in its efforts to "do something." FX controls – perhaps in the form of taxes on money that goes abroad, perhaps restrictions on amounts and reasons, perhaps the requirement of official approval, perhaps all of these things – are a natural progression during the next stage of the crisis. After all, only rich people can afford to send money abroad, and only the unpatriotic would think of doing so.

    How and Where

    I would like to reemphasize that it’s pure foolishness to have your loyalties dictated by the lines on a map or the dictates of some ruler. The nation-state itself is on its way out. The world will increasingly be aligned with what we call phyles, groups of people who consider themselves countrymen based on their interests and values, not on which government's ID they share. I believe the sooner you start thinking that way, the freer, the richer, and the more secure you will become.

    The most important first step is to get out of the danger zone. Let’s list the steps in order of importance.

    1. Establish a financial account in a second country and transfer assets to it immediately.

    2. Purchase a crib in a suitable third country, somewhere you might enjoy whether in good times or bad.

    3. Get moving toward an alternative citizenship in a fourth country; you don't want to be stuck geographically, and you don't want to live like a refugee.

    4. Keep your eyes open for business and investment opportunities in those four countries, plus the other 195; you'll greatly increase your perspective and your chances of success.

    Where to go?

    The personal conclusion I came to was Argentina (followed by Uruguay), where I spend a good part of my year and even more now that my house at La Estancia de Cafayate is completed.

    In general, I would suggest you look most seriously at countries whose governments aren't overly cozy with the U.S. and whose people maintain an inbred suspicion of the police, the military, and the fiscal authorities. These criteria tilt the scales against past favorites like Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the UK.

    And one more piece of sage advice: stop thinking like your neighbors, which is to say stop thinking and acting like a serf. Most people – although they can be perfectly affable and even seem sensible – have the attitudes of medieval peasants that objected to going further than a day's round-trip from their hut, for fear the stories of dragons that live over the hill might be true. We covered the modern versions of that objection a bit earlier.

    I'm not saying that you'll make your fortune and find happiness by venturing out. But you'll greatly increase your odds of doing so, greatly increase your security, and, I suspect, have a much more interesting time.

    Let me end by reminding you what Rick Blaine, Bogart's character in Casablanca, had to say in only a slightly different context. Appropriately, Rick was an early but also an archetypical international man. Let's just imagine he's talking about what will happen if you don't effectively internationalize yourself now. He said: "You may not regret it now, but you'll regret it soon. And for the rest of your life."

  • In Gold We Trust, 2016 Edition

    Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com,

    The 10th Anniversary Edition of the “In Gold We Trust” Report

    As every year at the end of June, our good friends Ronald Stoeferle and Mark Valek, the managers of the Incrementum funds, have released the In Gold We Trust report, one of the most comprehensive and most widely read gold reports in the world. The report can be downloaded further below.

     

    Gold, daily

    Gold, daily, over the past year – click to enlarge.

    The report celebrates its 10th anniversary this year. As always, a wide variety of gold-related topics is discussed, providing readers with a wealth of valuable and intellectually stimulating information. This year’s report inter alia includes a detailed discussion of gold’s properties in terms of Nicholas Nassim Taleb’s “fragility/ robustness/ anti-fragility” matrix, as well as close look at the last resort of mad-cap central planners that goes by the moniker “helicopter money”.

    Since falling to a new multi-year low amid growing despondency and a crescendo of bearishness late last year,  gold has celebrated a rather noteworthy comeback. As our regular readers know, we pointed to many subtle signs that indicated to us that a trend change might soon be afoot as the low approached (particularly in gold stocks, see e.g. “Gold and Gold Stocks, it Gets Even More Interesting” or “The Canary in the Gold Mine” for some color on this).

    Ronald and Mark are inter alia looking into the question whether gold’s recent comeback marks the resumption of the secular bull market, and which factors are likely to drive precious metals in coming years. As they correctly argue, the increasing desperation of central bankers and their willingness to boost inflation at all cost is going to lead to a plethora of unintended consequences, all of which are likely to boost the gold price.

    They also shed light on one issue that  – apart from a handful of exceptions –  is clearly not on anyone’s radar screen at the moment: namely the possibility that central banks might finally “succeed”. In other words, the possibility that gold’s recent rise is actually the harbinger of another event widely regarded as “impossible” – the return of price inflation.

    In this context, we want to reproduce a chart from the report, which shows the proprietary Incrementum inflation signal vs. the gold price and a number of other inflation-sensitive assets. As can be seen, the signal has flipped rather forcefully toward inflation, after having been stuck for several years in “disinflation/ deflation” territory.

    Incrementum signal

    The Incrementum Inflation Signal vs. inflation-sensitive assets – click to enlarge.

     

    This incidentally jibes with the ECRI Future Inflation Gauge, which has recently reached a new multi-year high as well. As can probably be imagined, if the message of these signals is actually borne out, central banks will be facing quite a quandary. It also has potentially far-reaching implications for investors of all stripes, which the report discusses extensively as well.

     

    Conclusion and Download Link

    We are certain that our readers will find this year’s In Gold We Trust report just as interesting and entertaining as its predecessors. In fact, we believe the anniversary report is an especially well done issue. Enjoy!

    Full PDF can be downloaded here, or read below…

    In Gold We Trust 2016-Extended Version

  • WTF Chart Of The Day: When Central Planning Fails

    Things have not been going according to plan for Kuroda-san and his policy-making ‘Peter-Pan’s in Japan. Since The Bank of Japan unleashed NIRP on its ‘saving’ community – which, according to the textbooks would force money to reach for riskier investments, pumping stocks up, or flush cash into inflationary consumption – stock prices have collapsed and bond prices have exploded… In fact, in six months, bonds are outperforming stocks by a central-bank-credibility-crushing 70%!!!

    Rate cuts…not working

    h/t @jsblokland

    And it’s not just The BoJ that is struggling – since The Fed hiked rates, The S&P is down 3.5% and Treasuries are up 16%!!

     

    2016 – The year when the central-planners were finally exposed!!

  • Juncker Refuses To Speak English In Address To EU Parliament

    While both Angela Merkel and David Cameron, and perhaps Boris Johnson, have been doing all they can to restore some of the badly burned bridges between the UK and Europe over the past week, the European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, perhaps once again under the influence, is seemingly engaged in a one-man crusade to accelerate and crush any last hope of an amicable UK departure with lingering ties to Europe.

    As we reported earlier, Juncker pulled a fast one on the EU parliament when he first said that “we must respect British democracy and the way it has expressed its view,” a statement that was greeted by rare applause from the UKIP members present. However, Juncker promptly turned the tables when he said “that’s the last time you are applauding here… and to some extent I’m really surprised you are here. You are fighting for the exit. The British people voted in favor of the exit. Why are you here?” Juncker continued, breaking from his speech text.

    Then, according to a Telegraph correspondent, Juncker added that he has imposed a Presidential Ban on all contact between EU officials and UK officials until Art 50.

    But the coup de grace, to use the proper language, came when as AP reported, Juncker decided to refuse speaking in English altogether. In contrast to recent speeches on Britain’s future in the European Union, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker didn’t speak English Tuesday as he lamented the U.K.’s departure from the bloc.

    Juncker’s official speech to EU lawmakers was made only in French and German. He did, however, respond to hecklers among the British EU lawmakers in English.

    Previously, Juncker has often used the EU’s most widely spoken and written language as well, particularly when addressing issues close to British hearts.

    It’s unclear whether the move was a political message from one of Europe’s longest serving leaders, or an act of caution due to criticism he has received for making mistakes in English in the past.

    Whatever the motivation, it almost appears that Juncker is doing everything in his power to sabotage any lingering hope of some last minute mending of relations between the EU and the UK.

    * * *

    Meanwhile, the fate of the UK aside, the blowback inside Europe is growing and now the prime ministers of four central European countries say the European Union needs to be reformed to renew the trust of citizens in its institutions. The prime ministers of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia also said the forthcoming exit negotiations between the EU and Britain must not leave EU members and their businesses in a worse position than Britain and its companies.

    They said the EU should focus on economic growth, an increase of prosperity and the development of a common security policy. The four countries form an informal bloc known as the Visegrad Group and released a joint statement ahead of a summit of EU leaders in Brussels Tuesday.

    What was left unsaid is that the balance of power has now shifted dramatically, and what was once Merkel’s sole domain now sees the periphery as gradually dominating all negotiations thanks to the impromtpy threat of a referendum that any one nation may invoke at a moment’s notice. In the aftermath of Brexit, this is a threat that Merkel and Brussels have no choice but to do everything in their power to remedy, even if it means succumbing to every single demand.

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Today’s News 28th June 2016

  • Beijing Is Falling… Literally

    If you've ever been to Beijing and gotten that sinking feeling (no, not the one that those get when being disappeared), then you're not alone because the city is literally sinking. According to a new study, Beijing is sinking 11cm (4 inches) a year because the city is using too much ground water.

    Some areas of Beijing are sinking by as much as four inches a year due to the over-pumping of groundwater from beneath China's capital the International Business Times reports.

    As the International Business Times explains

    Some areas of Beijing are sinking by as much as four inches (11 cm) each year, due to the over-pumping of groundwater from beneath China's capital, a survey has revealed. Beijing has a population of over 20 million and is the fifth most water-stressed city in the world, meaning the resulting subsidence is set to worsen.

     

    Groundwater has sat beneath the city for thousands of years, but it is increasingly being used for domestic consumption, industrial use and agriculture. It has been estimated by state media outlet Sina that Beijing alone requires 3.5 billion litres of water each year, two-thirds of which is pumped from beneath the city. As it is removed, the soil compacts, causing subsidence above. The process is accelerated by the increasing weight bearing down as buildings continue to be constructed.

     

    The data was compiled using GPS measurements and satellite imagery, and found that some central zones were most at risk. These included the eastern suburb of Chaoyang, where subsidence was 11 cm a year. Chaoyang is also one of the areas where development has been most marked and the report claims there may be risks to inhabitants due to the uneven nature of the subsidence.

     

    According to the study, published by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the sinking of land could have an impact on the country's transport infrastructure. In an email to The Guardian they wrote: "We are currently carrying out a detailed analysis of the impacts of subsidence on critical infrastructure (eg high-speed railways) in the Beijing plain. Hopefully a paper summarizing our findings will come out later this year."

    As the population grows, the pace at which the city sinks accelerates.

    Sputnik has more

    However, the pace at which it is sinking has accelerated as its population has increased. Beijing's population in 1935 was 5.6 million; it rose to 10.8 million by 1990.

     

    In recent years, there has been even greater urban growth. In early 2016, the city's population reached an estimated 21.7 million, up from 19.6 million in 2010, and 13.6 million in 2000.

    The distribution of the sinking depends on fault lines in the ground beneath the city, and is worse in the east, north-east and northern parts of Beijing, where bowls of sinking ground have increased in size and gradually merged.

    It's not just Beijing either, according to the study 45 other cities across China are also sinking, including Shanghai.

    * * *

    The silver lining to this bizarre occurrence is the fact that now China has another GDP boosting project to undertake. In addition to constructing more ghost towns and high speed rail projects, Beijing can now begin work on a $64 billion project to reduce its reliance on the groundwater by building a 2,400km network of tunnels and canals to eventually channel 44.8 billion cubic meters of fresh water annually from the Yangtze River in Southern China.

  • Brexit: Russia's Comfort Level Rises, US Loses Eurasian Plot

    Submitted by Ambassador M.K.Bhadrakumar via Asia Times,

    If there is a tide in the affairs of men, as Brutus said in William Shakespeare’s play Julius Caesar, it must be the same in the affairs of nations, too.

    Less than a week ago, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was creeping toward the borders of Russia and relentlessly provoking it, but the tide abruptly turned on Friday. Eurasian politics will never be the same again after Brexit.

    Only last Wednesday, while addressing the Russian Duma in Moscow, President Vladimir Putin took Russia’s political elites into confidence that the nation was facing once again a menace on its borders similar to the Nazi invasion exactly 75 years ago.

    However, two days later in Tashkent, Putin spoke calmly and in a detached tone, when asked for his reaction to Brexit. But he hinted he is insightful enough to recognize the opportunity brought up by fate. Putin said:

    • Brexit will have “consequences” for both Britain and Europe as a whole and will inevitably have “global effects… both positive and negative”;
    • “Time will tell whether there will be more pluses or minuses”;
    • Brexit will impact market and currencies, but a “global upheaval” is unlikely;
    • Apropos sanctions against Russia, if EU countries are ready for “constructive dialogue,” Moscow will be “not only ready – we seek it and we will respond positively to positive initiatives”;
    • Having said that, Russia has limits since the onus on the implementation of the Minsk accord on Ukraine lies with Kiev and “without them, we can do nothing.”

    Putin had most recently visited Greece, an EU country closest to Russia. Significantly, in the words of the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, Brexit “confirms a deep political crisis, an identity crisis and a crisis in the European strategy.”

    This would also be echoing the broad swathe of Russian opinion.

    The Russian commentators on the whole feel elated that the Brexit vote will inexorably lead to a weakening of the EU sanctions. Indeed, they expect a significant improvement in Russia’s relations with Britain.

    London is a favorite playpen of Russian oligarchs and Moscow elites. Boris Johnson, the UK’s most likely post-Brexit prime minister, has been a vocal supporter of warm relations with Russia, and the Moscow elites regard him to be an unusual politician who has no cold war mentality and even more interestingly, has no foreign policy mentality, either.

    Clearly, the surmise among the Russian analysts is that Washington will be hard-pressed to impose its trans-Atlantic leadership in the same manner it used to, and the EU itself will be probably unable to reach a consensus on extending the sanctions against Russia beyond the end of the year. These are Russia’s best bets.

    However, Putin’s cautious words suggest that Moscow will keep its fingers crossed as to how Washington could afford to permit Brexit to be taken to its logical conclusion and simply allow the British people to leave the EU. Quite obviously, Putin neatly sidestepped any talk of European disintegration.

    On the other hand, Moscow cannot be unaware that Euroskepticism is a pervasive phenomenon in Europe. If Brexit has a ‘domino effect’ and sets in motion referenda in other European countries as well, the unthinkable may happen. Even otherwise, the Euroskeptic groups in Europe have already strengthened their standing. Either way, while George Soros wrote in the weekend that the disintegration of the EU has become “practically irreversible,” he may have a point.

    Clearly, there are question marks over Britain’s own survival. Russia stands to benefit here, too, because Britain has been traditionally not only the charioteer of US interests in Europe but also been an ‘arbiter’ of sorts within the EU, a role where it is irreplaceable.

    In the face of mounting pressure from the West, Moscow lately began focusing on expanding its influence and consolidating its leadership in Eurasia. At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum a week ago, Putin unveiled a Greater Eurasia project. All indications are that this also was a key agenda item for discussions with the Chinese leadership during his visit to Beijing in the weekend.

    Putin visualizes a grand partnership within the ambit of the Greater Eurasia plan, involving Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), China and, possibly, India and Iran – effectively expanding the ‘post-Soviet space’ toward East, West and South Asian directions.

    Putin’s Greater Eurasia vision has three templates – security, common market and internal governance. The Russian intention seems to be to bring the cascading Chinese influence in the Eurasian space to be brought under negotiation within a multilateral format, especially China’s One Belt One Road initiative.

    But China is unlikely to agree. China has had a field day as tensions began rising between Russia and the West under the shadow of the NATO build-up. But with Brexit, the power dynamic in Eurasia may be about to change dramatically in Russia’s favor.

    Arguably, Brexit eases the pressure on Russia from the West and provides it with the respite to pay greater attention to the reality that in the recent years, China has been steadily expanding its influence in Eurasia – not only in Central Asia but also in the Balkans and Central Europe.

    What matters most for Moscow will be whether Brexit will arrest the recent trend, encouraged in no small measure by Washington, toward militarization of Europe. The upcoming NATO summit in Warsaw (July 8-9) will now be taking place under the shadow of Brexit.

    It may be a harbinger of things to come that Bulgaria and Romania last week voiced opposition to the idea of a NATO fleet in the Black Sea. The Bulgarian prime minister Boiko Borisov said on Thursday with a touch of sarcasm that the Black Sea should be a place where yachts and large boats filled with tourists sail rather than being a military arena.

    Practical cooperation within the alliance may continue in the near term. But it remains to be seen how far Washington will succeed in keeping the European mind trained on the highly contrived thesis of Russia being a revisionist state that has put military mobilization at the center of its strategic thinking.

    Brexit poses questions for NATO although the British people have not voted to leave the alliance. In an insightful commentary, the well-known ‘Russia hand’ at the National Interest magazine Nikolas Gvosdev noted that Brexit “validates two developing trend lines in Europe”. Gvosdev explained:

    The first is the hesitation within Western European countries to want to be drawn into conflicts and problems happening on the eastern periphery of the continent or within the post-Soviet space.

     

    The second will be to reawaken the lingering regional split within the alliance, with some members arguing that if NATO had paid much more attention to dealing with the cross-Mediterranean threats to European security, rather than on being drawn into playing geopolitical games in Eurasia, the migration crisis might have been avoided or blunted; and thus one of the key drivers of Brexit might have been neutralized.

    The bottom line is that the EU and NATO are complementary. And Brexit upholds that national interests prevail over European collective interests. Without doubt, Brexit is also, partly at least, a reflection of the overall weariness in Europe with the continued NATO expansion eastward.

  • Economic Predictions for Summer 2016: The Epocalypse Keeps Crashing

     This article by David Haggith was first published on The Great Recession Blog.

    Oso Landslide, Washington

    Brexit — the second major landslide in the Year of the Epocalypse —  has bankers all over the world scrambling to pick up and prop up their crumbled facades this week. This is one more jolt in the developing global economic collapse that I predicted for 2016. 

    The ground of an entire nation just dropped several feet. Aftershocks from a drop that size will be felt frequently throughout the summer and to some extent for years to come.

    As I’ve said before, US politicians will find it increasingly difficult this year to keep shoring up the US economy until the end of the election cycle. This collapse just made things a lot worse for them. Brexits, Grexits and other exits, oil defaults, job decay, manufacturing malaise and a host of other planet-sized problems are piling up so fast that it will become almost impossible to hold off collapse much longer as global problems press in on the US and other nations.

     

    Entire nations are now making for the exits

     

    Near the start of 2016, I described the anti-establishment forces that were shaping up to define the year ahead and the impact those nationally divisive forces would have on the world’s banking system this year:

     

    The resources of all nations and their central banks are just too depleted to handle such a massive rupture of the global economy as we saw in 2008. Yet, this one is appearing that it could be far greater because it is developing all over the world simultaneously. The capacity of nations and their banks is fully taken up by huge monstrous national debts and balance sheets that have swelled beyond anything anyone would have imagined a decade ago.

     

    At the same time, the people of all nations are fatigued from years of hearing about recession. In nations like Greece this is true at a level that is already explosive. If a recession like the Great Recession happens now, it will deplete all hopes because of all the talk of recovery that proved false after the last recession. They will have scaled the mountain — or tried to — only to find themselves shaken to the bottom again. Who would have faith in the central bankers to save the economy this time when all their plans to save it from the last recessionary period blew up in their faces?

     

    Anger, albeit late in coming, is showing itself in US elections this round in the form of a movement in both parties away from the establishment. Who believes, however, that newly elected officials could find a solution once the central banks are proven to have failed? In moving away from the establishment, Democrats are moving further left and Republicans further right. There is little likelihood of agreement on a solution, especially one profound enough to right the entire world. (“Hell Week for the Global Economy“)

     

    Later in May, I focused on the immigration tensions that were amplifying the anti-establishment discontent in Europe and here at home:

     

    We don’t know what will happen with a Brexit or whether a Grexit will raise its ugly head again or whether immigration tensions will spontaneously combust in Europe … but I think the frying pan will certainly be sizzling this summer to cook up the last of the market’s bully beef for the bears to feast upon.

     

    The increasingly scarce market bulls are dead cattle walking thanks to zombie economics. (“Zombie Economy Soon to Have its Zombie Epocalypse“)

     

    In other words, I wouldn’t bet back then on exactly what national breakaway would happen first in the EU, but was certain national tensions would heat up to where Europe started falling apart this summer, particularly over immigration tensions. The falling apart began right on cue. One cannot always see what section of land will give way first, but one can certainly see that so many pieces are ready to give way that collapse is certain and imminent.

     

    Banks and bankers are trembling all over the world

     

    To sum up where we are now now, I’ll turn to former Fed Chair Allan Greenspan who said that the Brexit event “may be just the tip of the iceberg” for Europe’s problems. When asked what he meant by that, he responded with the following:

     

    This is the worst period I recall since I’ve been in public service. There’s nothing like it, including the crisis — remember October 19th, 1987, when the Dow went down by a record amount 23 percent? That I thought was the bottom of all potential problems. This has a corrosive effect that will not go away…. 

    This problem that’s causing the British problem is far more widespread. Fundamentally, what we are looking at is a massive slowing in the rate of real of incomes across the whole European spectrum…. Real incomes are not going anywhere, and that is creating a serious political problem, which is not easy to resolve….

     

    I think the euro currency is the immediate problem… There’s this whole movement toward European political integration…. The euro area was a major step in that direction, and it’s failing. Greece is in real serious trouble. It is not going to continue in the euro very much longer, irrespective of what’s going on currently. (CNBC)

     

    While Greenspan was one of the absent-minded architects of the Great Recession with his rabid debt-expansion policies, I quote him because he is speaking against his own longtime centrist bias when he claims that Grexit is certain for its own reasons and that the euro “is failing.”

    In other words, if even Greenspan says Europe is falling apart and the euro “is failing,” it must be bad. He’s a centrist saying the center is not holding. It’s not the nature of a central banker — even a former one — to be alarmist by saying an entire economic zone run by his comrades, which he has applauded, is now collapsing into chaos.

    Don Quijones, an editor of Wolf Street, adds a note to Greenspan’s candid observations:

     

    Another serious problem (on which Greenspan was somewhat less forthcoming) is Europe’s swelling ranks of heavily leveraged, scantily capitalized, bad-loan bedeviled, zombified banks. It was they whose stocks plunged the most [on Friday]….

     

    The prophets of Project Fear reaped what they’d sown, as financial carnage spread across global markets on news that a slim majority of British voters had done the unthinkable by drowning out the relentless doomsaying and voting to leave the European Union. The pound sterling plunged 8% against the dollar, to $1.37, its lowest level in three decades. The euro fell 1.93%, in itself a huge one-day move for a major currency. UK stocks surrendered over 3% of their value. But that was nothing compared to the havoc unleashed in other European stock markets….

     

    In Spain and Italy: the IBEX 35 plummeted 12.3% and the FTSE MIB 12.5%. It was their worst day on record. The UK economy may be in for a hellishly bumpy ride in the months and years ahead, but the fact that London’s FTSE 100 was Europe’s least worst performing stock market on this day of all days suggests that Europe’s biggest financial risks probably lie elsewhere. And that is in euro land, in particular on its southern flank….

     

    The shares of Italy’s biggest bank (and global systemically important institution), Unicredit, slid more than 23% on Friday. They are down 59% since January. The stock of Banco Populare, Italy’s fifth biggest bank, also lost 23% on Friday and is down over 80% since the beginning of this year. The fourth biggest institution, the perpetually failing Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena whose loss-making derivatives bets were made under Mario Draghi’s watch as Bank of Italy’s governor, fell by 16.5%. (Wolf Street)

     

    Spain’s banks suffered as badly as Italy’s, with Bankia shares losing 20% of their value. Spain’s largest bank, Santander, already suffering heavy losses from its operations in Brazil, also lost 20% of its value overnight, as did a third mega bank in Spain, Sabadell. Expect to see more major bank bailouts in Europe.

    In the UK, Barclay’s shares plunged 20.5%. HSBC dropped 9%, and the Royal Bank of Scotland fell off a cliff, taking a 27.5% pounding.

     

    Mood in the restaurants and coffee shops in the high-rise banking hub of Canary Wharf, home to JPMorgan, Citi , HSBC and Barclays, was sober and contemplative, with job security fears rising to levels unseen since the 2008 financial crisis. Major investment banks have already warned they could move thousands of jobs elsewhere if Britain opts out of the EU, while the European Central Bank has signaled it could force euro trading out of London, the world’s largest foreign exchange market….

     

    “We’ll have a crash and big layoffs,” a senior investment banker at a U.S. bank told Reuters….

    “This is the biggest vote in my lifetime. Black Wednesday and the impact of Lehman Brothers collapsing – these other big events don’t even compare in magnitude to this,” said Mark Boleat, Chairman of the City of London’s Policy and Resources Committee…. “We are just beginning to think through what will have to happen legally andit is massive, absolutely massive….

     

    Leave’s victory [Brexit’s victory] has delivered one of the biggest market shocks of all time … Panic may not be too strong a word,” Joe Rundle, Head of Trading at ETX Capital said. (Newsmax)

     

    Bankers are shaking in their hip waders as they congregate in a swamp full of alligators.

    As individual bankers bemoaned what they see as a crushing shock, central banks ran in for emergency rescues. The Bank of England offered a quarter of a trillion pounds plus substantial access to foreign currencies, promising additional measures as required. The US Federal Reserve assured the entire world it was standing by to supplement liquidity through its swap lines with global funding markets. The ECB said it would provide additional liquidity to protect euro stability, and the People’s Bank of China assured other nations it would maintain a stable yuan (though on Monday, China weakened the yuan by its most since the big sell-off last August). Even neutral Switzerland ran to the rescue.

     

    In a rare move for a major central bank, the Swiss National Bank openly intervened in currency markets to weaken the safe-haven franc, promising to do even more if needed. (Newsmax)

     

    The Epocalypse is here

     

    Seattle_-_House_damaged_in_Perkins_Lane_landslide,_1954We have now entered a global period of bailouts heaping up against the back of earlier bailouts and attempted recovery coming on the back of already failed recovery. Why? Because it is all the same Great Recession, and as I’ve maintained since I began this blog several years ago the “recovery” is nothing but a prop under the Great Recession’s monstrous belly. That prop, I said would fail this year, and we would slide into the abyss of an economic apocalypse in a series of jolting plunges and rallies.

    As I quoted David Stockman in an earlier article,

     

    At long last the tyranny of the global financial elite has been slammed good and hard. You can count on them to attempt another central bank based shock and awe campaign to halt and reverse the current sell-off, but it won’t be credible, sustainable or maybe even possible….

     

    The central bankers and their compatriots … have well and truly over-played their hand. They have created a tissue of financial lies; an affront to the very laws of markets, sound money and capitalist prosperity…. So there will be payback, clawback and traumatic deflation of the bubbles. Plenty of it, as far as the eye can see….

     

    When I say “the Epocalypse is here” or “the end is here,” I don’t mean we are now on the final leg down or that there will be no leveling off or no rally — that its finished. Heck, the central bankers aren’t going to give up the show that easily, and this is an election year in the US where they can expect totally subservient assistance from establishment politicians on both sides of congress. The majority of elected politicians clearly deplore the possibility that Donald Trump could not only be proven right about economic collapse but could be hoisted to a success big enough to give him a political mandate to tear the establishment apart in 2017!

    What I mean when I claim “the end is here” is that this is one more enormous jolt like we saw in January that is a part of the end. We are, in other words, going through the end. I’ve consistently stated the Epocalypse will take, at least, a year and half to find its bottom; so it is far from over. This is just the beginning of the end.

    Each of these jolts does huge damage to the global economy, weakens banks and central banks and other corporations in substantial ways, and takes us further into the Epocalypse. This one is massive to such a degree that its damage to the establishment will only be discovered over a period of weeks or more likely months. Along the way, we also have smaller jolts like we saw when I quoted Dennis Gartman as saying a month ago:

     

    The Bulls and the Bears left scratching their heads and wondering aloud, “What the hell just happened?” …Yesterday was our worst day of the year thus far, as that which we were long of fell and that which we were short of closed unchanged…. Yesterday was a disaster which we wish to put behind us. (Zero Hedge)

     

    By “Epocalypse” I mean an economic collapse on the scale of things predicted in The Apocalypse (i.e. on the same scale as biblically prophesied disasters in the Book of Revelation). The “Epocalypse” is my name for our second and deeper plunge into the belly of the Great Recession — a drop so great it will make the first slump look like it was just a dress rehearsal for the real show.

    I am sure many bulls who were long on Brexit are feeling the sizzle of the frying pan in the summer heat now as they try to recover from foolhardy long positions. Those were just the first ones who didn’t listen, and they just lost over two trillion dollars. The price of continuing to bet on the bull will grow worse each time something hits. You’re going to smell a lot more barbecued bull this summer … and beyond:

    A few major banks that were already stressed will likely fail in the months ahead because Brexit added more stress than they can absorb. That will probably mean more bailouts, but the populace is not inclined to accept any more bailouts, so that will mean more civil unrest if bailouts happen.

    National economies that were already crumbling like Greece, Brazil, Italy, Spain and France, will fall faster. As a result, other parts of the Eurozone will likely break off like icebergs in the summer heat. They may not announce their break from the EU this summer, but you’ll see major cracks form around their circumference.

    Areas of marginal economic weakness will develop visible fault lines and experience serious tremors. In the US that would include jolts to jobs and wages, more falloff in GDP, increasing social unrest, increasing corporate collapse.

    In the midst of that there will likely be periods of calm created by massive central bank infusions. You’ll see central banks invent new tricks that even they didn’t know they could come up with … out of desperation to save their “recoveries.” Those eddies of calm that run as counter currents to the main flow of events may beguile some rosy-eyed optimists into thinking the earth has stabilized, but it hasn’t and it won’t, and those beguiled will be hurt just as many were massively hurt by this jolt. As soon as you think the earth is steady, the next nation will fall.

    The calm between January and Brexit was longer than I expected between legs down, and the expected intervening rally went twice as high as I thought it would, but this is an election year. Regardless of the extended pause, global economic breakdown is continuing along the fault lines where I’ve indicated it would and in the year when I said things would all come apart, and the scale of Brexit is as huge as I said each leg of our journey into the Epocalypse will be.

    The journey into our decline has now resumed. Each part that gives way makes all the other parts weaker and their own collapse more certain and more imminent. It’s going to be a summer filled with aftershocks.

    You cannot stop this collapse, nor can you talk it into happening with negativity either. It is going to happen because it has to happen. It has inevitability all over it. Economic structures that should never have been created in the first place are giving way in what will become total structural failure. They are giving way because of their own flawed design:

    • You cannot create mountains of enduring wealth by carving out caverns of debt beneath them.
    • You cannot create stable economies by focusing all the benefits toward the rich industrialists and hoping they will trickle down to create demand later.
    • You cannot deplete your nation’s treasure with endless wars around the world by putting the wars of budget and beguiling yourself to think that means there was no cost to your own greatness.
    • You cannot cram people from divergent cultures together by the millions without creating huge social costs that become economic costs.
    • You cannot bail out rich bankers without creating moral hazard that entices them to repeat their sins.
    • You cannot centrally manage economies in a way that benefits the periphery.

     

    The list could be bigger. The earthquake has happened. The aftershocks will come. And then there is autumn, the time called “fall” because many things will.

  • EU Officials To Unveil 'Ultimatum' Blueprint As Final Solution For European Super-State

    It appears The Brits may have dodged more than a bullet in their decision to leave The EU. The foreign ministers of France and Germany are reportedly due to reveal a blueprint to effectively do away with individual member states in what is being described as an "ultimatum." As The Express reports, the shockingly predictable final solution to Europe's Brexit-driven existential crisis is an apparently long-held plan to morph the continent’s countries into one giant superstate. The radical proposals mean EU countries will lose the right to have their own army, criminal law, taxation system or central bank, with all those powers being transferred to Brussels. According to the Daily Express, the nine-page report has "outraged" some EU leaders.

    The plans for 'a closer European Union' have been branded an attempt to create a 'European superstate', as The Daily Mail reports,

    Germany's foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and his French counterpart Jean-Marc Ayrault today presented a proposal for closer EU integration based on three key areas – internal and external security, the migrant crisis, and economic cooperation.

     

    But the plans have been described as an 'ultimatum' in Poland, with claims it would mean countries transfer their armies, economic systems and border controls to the EU.

     

    Controversially member states would also lose what few controls they have left over their own borders, including the procedure for admitting and relocating refugees.

    The Express reports that the plot has sparked fury and panic in Poland – a traditional ally of Britain in the fight against federalism – after being leaked to Polish news channel TVP Info.

    The public broadcaster reports that the bombshell proposal will be presented to a meeting of the Visegrad group of countries – made up of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia – by German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier later today.

     

    Excerpts of the nine-page report were published today as the leaders of Germany, France and Italy met in Berlin for Brexit crisis talks.

     

    In the preamble to the text the two ministers write: "Our countries share a common destiny and a common set of values ??that give rise to an even closer union between our citizens. We will therefore strive for a political union in Europe and invite the next Europeans to participate in this venture."

     

    Responding to the plot Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski raged: "This is not a good solution, of course, because from the time the EU was invented a lot has changed.

     

    “The mood in European societies is different. Europe and our voters do not want to give the Union over into the hands of technocrats.

     

    “Therefore, I want to talk about this, whether this really is the right recipe right now in the context of a Brexit."

     

    There are deep divides at the heart of the EU at the moment over how to proceed with the project in light of the Brexit vote.

    Some figures have cautioned against trying to force through further political integration, warning that to do so against the wishes of the European people will only fuel further Eurosceptic feeling.

    Czech minister Lubomír Zaorálek added that the four eastern members had reservations about the proposed common security policy.

     

    Meanwhile Lorenzo Condign, the former director general of Italy’s treasury, has said it is nearly impossible to see Europe opting for more integration at such a time of upheaval.

     

    He said: “It seems difficult to imagine that the rest of the EU will close ranks and move in the direction of greater integration quickly. Simply, there is no political will.

     

    “Indeed, the risk is exactly the opposite – namely that centrifugal forces will prevail and make integration even more difficult.”

    It seems the infamous phrase "never let a crisis go to waste" has not been lost on EU officialdom.

  • Jim Rogers: Brexit Blowback "Worse Than Any Bear Market You've Ever Seen"

    When it comes to being direct and offering up some truth, one can rest assured that Jim Rogers is a prime candidate to do both.

    In an interview with Yahoo! Finance, the legendary investor had some candid and quite unnerving things to say about the global market in the aftermath of Brexit.

    "This is going to be worse than any bear market that you've seen in your lifetime. 2008 was pretty bad because of debt, well the debt all over the world is much, much higher now. Stocks in the US for instance have been going sideways for 18 months, 24 months. That's called distribution by many people, so when you have distribution for a year and a half, it usually leads to bad things."

    If that was too upbeat, Rogers unveils his bear scenario:

    "The bear scenario, the bad scenario is that Scotland now leaves and takes the oil money, the city of London gets whacked by Europe, they lose a lot of income. The UK already has huge international debts, and it has balance of trade problems, budget problems, so the bear case is the pound disappears and England becomes Spain, or Poland, or Italy or something."

     

    "It won't happen anytime soon but the deterioration will continue, it makes stocks go down a lot. Remember, stock markets are anticipating the future, they see that happening it will now lead to many other separatist moments in the EU. This is going to encourage a lot of separatist movement, I'm not saying it's good or bad I'm just telling you what's going to happen, or what the bear case is, that if all that happens we all should be very worried."

    Regarding where EU will be five years from now, Rogers doesn't believe it will even exist:

    "The EU as we know it now will not exist, the Euro as we know it will not exist."

    On how to play this market now,

    "I'll tell you what I'm doing, people have to make their own decisions, going into this I'm long the US Dollar, I'm short US stocks, I own some Chinese shares, I own agriculture around the world. These are things that might do well no matter what happens going forward. These are going to be perilous times, I hope I get it right."

  • "Back Into The Hurricane" – Doug Casey Warns "Gold Will Go Higher Than Most People Can Imagine"

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    As fears of England leaving the European Union came to a head on voting day, a stunning scene emerged on the streets of London. Though it was completely ignored by the mainstream media, the fact that Brits were lining up in droves in front of gold and silver shops spoke volumes about financial assets of last resort during a real or perceived crisis.

    It is within this context that legendary resource investor Doug Casey warns that the hurricane which took the world by storm in 2008 is still a significant threat. While we’ve spent the last several years in relative peace and calm inside the eye of the storm, we’ll be entering the other side of the hurricane wall later this year, says Casey. And as we’ve seen in London, Greece, and Argentina in the past decade, when financial hurricanes wreak havoc across the economic landscape, the only safe haven to be had is in precious metals:

    We’re at the start of a really major bull market… This is going to be driven by a lot of things… It’s going to take gold a lot higher than most people can imagine at this point.

     

    …I think $5,000 gold will happen at some point because we’re looking at a worldwide monetary crisis of historic proportions.

    Casey shares his concerns, warnings and strategies in a must-hear interview with Future Money Trends:


    (Watch At Youtube)

    You have to remember that since the crisis started in 2007, not just the U.S. government which has printed up trillions of U.S. dollars, but the Europeans, the Japanese, the Chinese… they’ve all created trillions and trillions of currency units.

     

    Look at it as a Hurricane… We went into the leading edge of the hurricane in ’07, ’08 and ’09. They papered it over with all this funny money

     

    Now we’re going out to the trailing edge… and it’s going to last much longer, be much worse and be much different.

     

    I believe we’re going back into the trailing edge of the hurricane this year.

    What’s most notable about the awakening of the gold bull market, according to Casey, is that very few people have actually realized what’s happening and why. It is for this reason that Casey has been investing heavily into mining companies like Brazil Resources, a move that’s been mimicked by other well-known investors including famed financier George Soros and business magnate Carl Icahn who are also piling into precious metals related assets.

    And though this asset class has been largely ignored by the broader investing public, Casey suggests that the eventual result will be widespread mania and panic buying into gold assets as the global economic and monetary climate gets markedly worse going forward.

    Right now, very very few people are involved in gold stocks.

     

    They don’t even know gold exists.

     

    By the time this market ends there’s going to be a mania in gold, where everybody is going to be talking about it at cocktail parties and touting mining stocks to each other.

     

    We’re a long way from that… these stocks have a long way to run.

    George Soros previously warned of the same, having noted in 2010 that gold will become the ultimate bubble before all is said and done. Incidentally, this is right around the time he began making his first major acquisitions.

    Since then scores of other well known investors, institutions, and private family funds have made similar moves, many of them in secret, ahead of what could be an unprecedented bull market in precious metals.

    That gold is still considered a relic by many of the best and brightest economists out there is indicative of an asset that is nowhere near its potential highs.

    Once you hear those same processionals, financial advisers, your neighbors, your friends and the local shoeshine boy talking about gold investments at cocktail parties, you’ll know it’s time to sell. For now, they still have no idea what’s coming, making this an optimal time to consider the one asset that has survived the test of time throughout history and the many varieties of crises that have been wrought upon humankind.

  • "Brexit" – What Goldman Thinks Will Happen Next, And Who Will Hold The Next Referendum

    Considering Goldman’s abysmal forecasting track record continues to plumb new lows (just today it predicted a Spain victory of Italy, and an England victory over Iceland, both tragically wrong), the following should perhaps be best used as an indicator of what will not happen. Still, since there are a lot of remaining Brexit question, we hope that the following at least provides a useful framework for how to approach the :”known unknowns”, if not so much the unknown unknown ones.

    First, here is Goldman’s answer on what happens next, in terms of timeline of key events, as well as bookmaker odds for the next conservative party leader.

    Some points from Goldman here:

    • In the case of multiple candidates, Conservative Members of Parliament will choose a shortlist of two names for party leader. The winner will then be determined by a postal ballot of the wider members of the party.
    • According to Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, “there’s a reasonable case to be made that this should go to an election given that the prime minister resigned.”
    • More than 3 million people in the UK have signed a petition calling for a second EU referendum.
    • Over the next several weeks, leaders across the continent will assemble to address the political implications for the UK and the EU more broadly.

    * * *

    The next question: how will Scotland and Northern Ireland react. It shows the following chart as evidence of the pro-EU sentiment in these two states.

    “A second referendum must be on the table. And it is on the table.”

         – Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, June 24, 2016

    “Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon … threatened to block Britain’s exit from the EU, arguing that such a decision would need the consent of Scotland’s semiautonomous Parliament.”

         – The Wall Street Journal, June 27, 2016

    “This outcome tonight dramatically changes the political landscape here in the north of Ireland, and we will be intensifying our case for the calling of a border poll.”

         – Sinn Féin Chairman Declan Kearney, June 24, 2016

    On the other hand, as we reported earlier, a new poll has found that the majority in Scotland is against independence with more people (45%) saying Scotland should not conduct a second referendum, than those who said it should (42%).

    * * *

    Goldman then shows the split within the EU, with those on one side who are urging for a quick separation (Juncker, Hollande), and those who want a slow departure (Merkel, Cameron, Johnson). Merkel is winning.

    * * *

    Goldman’s final question: is there risk of more referenda across the EU. The answer: a resounding yes, as can be seen in the table below.

     

    “The UK has just initiated a movement that will not stop.”

          – National Front Leader Marine Le Pen, June 24, 2016

     

    “Hurrah for the British! Now it’s our turn. Time for a Dutch referendum! #ByeByeEU”

          – Dutch Freedom Party Leader Geert Wilders, June 24, 2016

  • The End Game Of Bubble Finance – Political Revolt

    Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

    During Friday’s bloodbath I heard a CNBC anchor lady assuring her (scant) remaining audience that Brexit wasn’t a big sweat. That’s because it is purportedly a political crisis, not a financial one.

    Presumably in the rarified canyons of Wall Street, politics doesn’t matter much. After all, when things get desperate enough, Washington caves and does “whatever it takes” to get the stock averages moving upward again.

    Here’s a news flash. That’s all about to change.

    The era of Bubble Finance was enabled by a political abdication nearly 50 years ago. But as Donald Trump rightly observed in the wake of Brexit, the voters are about to take back their governments, meaning that the financial elites of the world are in for a rude awakening.

    To be sure, the apparent lesson of the first TARP vote when the bailout was rejected by the House in September 2008 was that politics didn’t matter so much.

    Wall Street’s 800 point hissy fit was all it took to prostrate the politicians. Indeed, the presumptive free market party then domiciled in the White House quickly shed its Adam Smith neckties and forced the congressional rubes from the red states to walk the plank a second time in order to reverse the decision.

    There was a crucial predicate for this classic crony capitalist capture of the authority and purse of the state, however, that should not be overlooked. Namely, that in the mid-cycle period of the world’s 20-year experiment in central bank driven Bubble Finance the rubes had not yet come to fully appreciate that they were getting the short end of the stick.

    Indeed, the earlier phases of the bubble era witnessed an enormous inflation of residential housing prices. For instance, between Greenspan’s arrival at the Fed in August 1987 and the housing bubble peak in 2007, the value of residential housing rose from $5.5 trillion to $22.5 trillion or by 4X. 

    The greatest extent of the housing bubble occurred in the bicoastal precincts, of course. But it did lift handsomely the value of 50 million owner occupied homes in the flyover zone, as well.

    Accordingly, the latter did not yet see that the new regime was stacked in favor of the top 10% of the economic and wealth ladder, which owns 85% of the non-housing financial assets. Nor was it yet evident as to the degree to which massive money printing under conditions of Peak Debt almost exclusively stimulates Wall Street speculation, not main street production, jobs, incomes and spending.

    In any event, by the eve of the great financial crisis, the GOP was actually controlled by the racketeers of the Beltway and the Wall Street gamblers, not the red state voters who had elected it.

    In fact, Goldman’s Sach’s plenipotentiary to Washington, Hank Paulson, was in complete command of the elected side of government. At the same time, the Bush White House had populated the central banking branch of the state with proponents of monetary activism, who were more than ready to authorize “heroic” measures to reflate the bubble.

    Needless to say, the leader of the pack, Ben Bernanke, had been groomed for the role of chief bailster by none other than Milton Freidman. The latter, in turn, had led Nixon astray at Camp David 37 year earlier when he persuaded Tricky Dick to default on the dollar’s link to gold, thereby opening the door to fiat money, massive credit expansion and the modern era of Bubble Finance.

    There is a straight line of linkage from that great historical inflection point to Friday’s Brexit uprising. Namely, Nixon’s abandonment of the Bretton Woods gold exchange standard, as deficient as it had been, was also a profoundly political act.

    It resulted in the abdication of economic and financial policy to an unelected elite and their eventual capture by Wall Street and the forces of speculation and financialization unleashed by unanchored central bank money and credit.

    Nixon’s destruction of Bretton Woods was the enabling event. It turned central bankers and financial officialdom loose to operate a dictatorship of bailouts, bubbles and financialization of economic life. And to spread this baleful regime to Europe, Japan and the rest of the world, too.

    To be sure, it took more than two decades to fully materialize. There were deeply embedded institutional cultures and ideologies among policy-makers that restrained opened-ended resort to the printing press and financial bailouts.

    The Paul Volcker interlude in the US and the determined sound money regime of the Bundesbank are cases in point.

    But eventually the old regime gave way. There emerged Greenspan’s dotcom and housing bubbles, the rise of the ECB and the financial rulers of Brussels, the massive bailouts triggered by the global crisis of 2008-2009, the hideous expansion of central bank balance sheets during the era of QE and ZIRP, the emergence of the destructive “whatever it takes” regime of Draghi and the current financial lunacy of subzero interest rates across much of the planet.

    But here’s the thing. The rubes are on to the rig.

    Twenty-years of Bubble Finance have made the City of London an oasis of splendor and prosperity, for example, but it has left the hinterlands of Britain hollowed-out industrially, resentful of the unearned prosperity of the elites and fearful of the open-ended flow if immigrants and imports enabled by the superstate in Brussels. As on observer put it, the geography of the vote said it all:

    Look at the map of those results, and that huge island of “in” voting in London and the south-east; or those jaw-dropping vote-shares for remain in the centre of the capital: 69% in Tory Kensington and Chelsea; 75% in Camden; 78% in Hackney, contrasted with comparable shares for leave in such places as Great Yarmouth (71%), Castle Point in Essex (73%), and Redcar and Cleveland (66%). Here is a country so imbalanced it has effectively fallen over.

    The rise of Trumpism in the US reflects the same social and economic fracture. To wit, Bubble Finance has also drastically unbalanced the US as between the bicoastal zones of prosperity it has enabled and the fly-over zones its has effectively left behind.

    It goes without saying that massive debt monetization and 90 months of zero interest rates has been a boon for the Imperial City. With almost no restraints on its ability to borrow and spend, the military/industry/security/surveillance complex has prospered like never before, as has the medical care cartel, the education syndicate and the lesser beltway rackets such as green energy and the farm subsidy/food stamp/ethanol alliance.

    Likewise, asset gatherers, financial intermediaries, brokers, punters, financial engineers and corporate strip-miners have prospered enormously because the market has been rigged every since Black Monday in October 1987. That is, the cost of debt and carry trades have been falsified, downside hedging insurance in the casino has become dirt cheap and time after time the Fed’s put has bailed-out speculations gone bust.

    Even what passes for entrepreneurial  breakouts in the world of social media and new tech isn’t really. It’s just another variant of the dotcom bubble in which a few good innovations are being drastically over-valued (e.g. Uber) while a tsunami of worthless and pointless start-ups have become giant cash burning machines (e.g. Tesla).

    Taken altogether, they are funding a ephemeral complex of pseudo businesses, pseudo jobs and pseudo start-up networks that are attracting tens of billions in venture capital that amount to malinvestment.

    Meanwhile, the main street economy has atrophied. The first round of Bubble Finance buried the middle class in debt, while the post-crisis intensification has turned the C-suites of America into a giant stock trading and financial engineering arena.

    Contrary to the bubblevision patter, in fact, there has been no business deleveraging at all. On the eve of the crisis in Q4 2007, total non-financial business debt outstanding was $11 trillion, and it is now $13.5 trillion.

    But on the margin, ever dime of that massive swelling of the business debt burden represents real economic resources cycled out of the flyover zones and pumped back into the financial casino’s and the bicoastal elites which fatten on them.

    The recent studies of the Census Bureau data which show that just 20 counties have generated half of all start-ups since the financial crisis provides another take on the underlying fissure:

    Americans in small towns and rural communities are dramatically less likely to start new businesses than they have been in the past, an unprecedented trend that jeopardizes the economic future of vast swaths of the country.

     

    The recovery from the Great Recession has seen a nationwide slowdown in the creation of new businesses, or start-ups. What growth has occurred has been largely confined to a handful of large and innovative areas, including Silicon Valley in California, New York City and parts of Texas, according to a new analysis of Census Bureau data by the Economic Innovation Group, a bipartisan research and advocacy organization that was founded by the Silicon Valley entrepreneur Sean Parker and small group of investors.

     

    That concentration of start-up activity is unusual, economists say. In the early 1990s recovery, 125 counties combined to generate half the total new business establishments in the country. In this recovery, just 20 counties have generated half the growth.

     

    The data suggest highly populated areas are not adding start-ups faster now than they did in the past; they appear simply to be treading water. But rural areas have seen their business formation fall off a cliff.

     

    Economists say the divergence appears to reflect a combination of trends, all of which have harmed small businesses in rural America. Those include the rise of big-box retailers such as Walmart, the loss of millions of manufacturing and construction jobs across the country and a pullback in business lending that appears to have stung small-town and rural borrowers particularly hard.

    The changes also reflect a fundamental shift over the past two decades in which workers and industries power the country’s economic growth. That shift advantages highly educated urbanites at the expense of everyone else. Polling suggests it is one of the driving forces in the political unrest among working-class Americans — particularly rural white men — who have flocked to Republican Donald Trump’s presidential campaign this year.

    In short, Bubble Finance is a giant engine of reverse Robin Hood redistribution. It embodies a sweeping fiscal intervention in the natural flows of the free market that punishes savers, laborers, self-funded main street entrepreneurs and the retired populations in favor of speculators and the holders of existing financial assets.

    Bubble Finance is an affront to both democratic governance and true prosperity. The Trump voters, the Brexit voters, the masses rallying to the populist banners throughout Europe above all else represent a reactivation of the political machinery in a last ditch campaign to stop the financial elite and their regime of Bubble Finance.

    Yes, this time is different, and this time there will be no reflation of the financial bubble like there was after Black Monday, the S&L bust, the dotcom crash and the great financial crisis of 2008-2009.

    Needless to say, the Wall Street dip-buyers and perma-bulls who take their cues from the modern day financial ruling class are in for a shock. And today’s statement by Martin Schulz, the President of the EU parliament good not more aptly explain why.

    Said Schulz,

    The British have violated the rules. It is not the EU philosophy that the crowd can decide its fate“.

    We think not.

  • Some Bad And Some Worse News For Stock Buybacks

    For those 17-year-old hedge fund managers used to BTFD on hopes corporate buybacks will “have their back” and provide the bid on which momentum-chasing HFT algos will piggyback, we have some bad news and some worse news.

    The bad news is that we are entering yet another quiet period for buybacks. This means that for the next 45 days, the biggest – and supposedly only – buyer of stocks will be mostly out of the market, and bank buyback desks will not be able to provide much needed support during distressed (read: more sellers than buyers) times.

    The worse news is that even without the buyback blackout period, following months of surging stock repurchasing activity by corporate treasurers…

    … buybacks have now ground to a virtual halt.

    According to TrimTabs, stock buyback announcements by U.S. companies have fallen sharply, sending a longer-term negative signal for U.S. equities.

    “Corporate America announced $2.8 trillion in stock buybacks in the past five years, and these buybacks have provided a key source of fuel for the bull market,” said David Santschi, chief executive officer of TrimTabs.  “Corporate actions this year suggest this support is going to diminish.”

    In a research note, TrimTabs reported that U.S. companies have announced a mere $11.8 billion in stock buybacks in June through Friday, June 24.  This month’s pace is the lowest this yearOnly four companies have announced plans to repurchase at least $1 billion this month.

    Even if some of the too-big-to-fails roll out buybacks after the release of the second part of the Fed’s stress test results, this month’s volume is likely to be among the lowest in the past three years,” noted Santschi.

    TrimTabs also explained that stock buyback announcements by U.S. companies have totaled $291.7 billion this year, which is 32% lower than the $432.0 billion in the same period last year.

    “The sharp decline in buyback announcements suggests corporate leaders are becoming more cautious, and it doesn’t bode well for the U.S. stock market,” said Santschi.

    It is unclear if the dramatic slowdown is due to a shift in corporate strategy, due to a desire by the C-suite to stockpile cash, or simply because creditors are no longer willing to fund bonds whose “use of proceeds” is to buyback stock, no matter how high the yield.

    In any case, the sudden disappearance of this cost-indiscriminate, and biggest by far, stock buyer in the market will be certain to have a substantial impact on risk pricing in the coming weeks and months; just in case the market didn’t have enough things to worry about…

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