Today’s News 27th May 2016

  • The Looting Stage Of Capitalism Begins: Germany's Assault On The IMF

    Submitted by Paul Craig Roberts via Counterpunch.org,

    Having successfully used the EU to conquer the Greek people by turning the Greek “leftwing” government into a pawn of Germany’s banks, Germany now finds the IMF in the way of its plan to loot Greece into oblivion.

    The IMF’s rules prevent the organization from lending to countries that cannot repay the loan. The IMF has concluded on the basis of facts and analysis that Greece cannot repay.  Therefore, the IMF is unwilling to lend Greece the money with which to repay the private banks.

    The IMF says that Greece’s creditors, many of whom are not creditors but simply bought up Greek debt at a cheap price in hopes of profiting, must write off some of the Greek debt in order to lower the debt to an amount that the Greek economy can service.

    The banks don’t want Greece to be able to service its debt, because the banks intend to use Greece’s inability to service the debt in order to loot Greece of its assets and resources and in order to roll back the social safety net put in place during the 20th century.  Neoliberalism intends to reestablish feudalism—a few robber barons and many serfs: the One Percent and the 99 percent.

    The way Germany sees it, the IMF is supposed to lend Greece the money with which to repay the private German banks.  Then the IMF is to be repaid by forcing Greece to reduce or abolish old age pensions, reduce public services and employment, and use the revenues saved to repay the IMF.

    As these amounts will be insufficient, additional austerity measures are imposed that require Greece to sell its national assets, such as public water companies and ports and protected Greek islands to foreign investors, principallly the banks themselves or their major clients.

    So far the so-called “creditors” have only pledged to some form of debt relief, not yet decided, beginning in 2 years.  By then the younger part of the Greek population will have emigrated and will have been replaced by immigrants fleeing Washington’s Middle Eastern and African wars who will have loaded up Greece’s unfunded welfare system.

    In other words, Greece is being destroyed by the EU that it so foolishly joined and trusted.  The same thing is happening to Portugal and is also underway in Spain and Italy.  The looting has already devoured Ireland and Latvia (and a number of Latin American countries) and is underway in Ukraine.

    The current newspaper headlines reporting an agreement being reached between the IMF and Germany about writing down the Greek debt to a level that could be serviced are false.  No “creditor” has yet agreed to write off one cent of the debt.  All that the IMF has been given by so-called “creditors” is unspecific “pledges” of an unspecified amount of debt writedown two years from now.

    The newspaper headlines are nothing but fluff that provide cover for the IMF to succumb to presssure and violate its own rules. The cover lets the IMF say that a (future unspecified) debt writedown will enable Greece to service the remainder of its debt and, therefore, the IMF can lend Greece the money to pay the private banks.

    In other words, the IMF is now another lawless Western institution whose charter means no more than the US Constitution or the word of the US government in Washington.

    The media persists in calling the looting of Greece a “bailout.”

    To call the looting of a country and its people a “bailout” is Orwellian.  The brainwashing is so successful that even the media and politicians of looted Greece call the financial imperialism that Greece is suffering a “bailout.”

    Everywhere in the Western world a variety of measures, both corporate and governmental, have resulted in the stagnation of income growth. In order to continue to report profits, mega-banks and global corporations have turned to looting.  Social Security systems and public services are targeted for privatization, and indebtedness so accurately described by John Perkins in his book, Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, is used to set up entire countries to be looted.

    We have entered the looting stage of capitalism. Desolation will be the result.

  • Beware What Washington Wishes For – Russia Is Ready For War

    Authored by Pepe Escobar, Op-Ed via RT.com,

    So foreign ministers from the 28 NATO member-nations met in Brussels for a two-day summit, while mighty military power Montenegro was inducted as a new member.

    Global Robocop NATO predictably discussed Afghanistan (a war NATO ignominiously lost); Iraq (a war the Pentagon ignominiously lost); Libya (a nation NATO turned into a failed state devastated by militia hell); Syria (a nation NATO, via Turkey, would love to invade, and is already a militia hell).

    Afghans must now rest assured that NATO’s Resolute Support mission – plus “financial support for Afghan forces” – will finally assure the success of Operation Enduring Freedom forever.

    Libyans must be reassured, in the words of NATO figurehead secretary Jens Stoltenberg, that we “should stand ready to support the new Government of National Accord in Libya.”

    And then there’s the icing on the NATO cake, described as “measures against Russia”.

    Stoltenberg duly confirmed, “We have already decided to enhance our forward presence in the eastern part of our alliance. Our military planners have put forward proposals of several battalions in different countries in the region. No decision has been taken on the numbers and locations.”

    These puny “several battalions” won’t cause any Russian planner to lose sleep. The real “measure” is the deployment of the Aegis Ashore system in Romania last week – plus a further one in Poland in 2018. This has been vehemently opposed by Moscow since the early 2000s. NATO’s argument that the Aegis represents protection against the “threat” of ballistic missiles from Iran does not even qualify as kindergarten play.

    Every Russian military planner knows the Aegis is not defensive. This is a serious game-changer – as in de-localizing US nuclear capability to Eastern Europe. No wonder Russian President Vladimir Putin had to make it clear Russia would respond “adequately” to any threat to its security.

    Predictably all Cold War 2.0 hell broke loose, all over again.

    A former NATO deputy commander went ballistic, while saner heads wondered whether Moscow, sooner rather than later, would have had enough of these shenanigans and prepare for war.

    That worthless Patriot

    A case can be made that the Beltway – neocons and neoliberalcons alike – do not want a hot war with Russia. What they want, apart from racking in more cash for the Pentagon, is to raise the ante to such a high level that Moscow will back down – based on a rational cost analysis. Yet oil prices will inevitably rise later in 2016 – and under this scenario Washington is a loser. So we may see a raise of interest rates by the Fed (with all the money continuing to go to Wall Street) trying to reverse the scenario.

    Comparisons of the current NATO buildup to pre-WWII buildups, or to NATO when opposed to the Warsaw Pact, are amateurish. The THAAD and Patriot missiles are worthless – according to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) themselves; that’s why they tried to improve them with Iron Dome.

    Meanwhile, those new NATO army “battalions” are inconsequential. The basic thrust behind the Pentagon’s moves under neocon Ash Carter continues to be to draw Russia ever further into Syria and Ukraine (as if Moscow actually was involved in, or wanted, a Ukrainian quagmire); trap Russia in proxy wars; and economically bleed Russia to death while crippling the bulk of oil and natural gas income to the Russian state.

    Russia does not want – and does not need – war. Yet the “Russian aggression” narrative never stops. Thus it’s always enlightening to come back to this RAND corporation study, which examined what would happen if a war actually took place. RAND reached an “unambiguous” conclusion after a series of war games in 2015-2015; Russia could overrun NATO in a mere 60 hours – if not less – if it ever amounted to a hot war on European soil.

    The Rand Corporation is essentially a CIA outpost – thus a propaganda machine. Yet it’s not propaganda to state the Baltic States and Ukraine would completely fall in less than three days before the Russian Army. However, the suggestion that additional NATO air power and heavily armored combat divisions would make a material difference is bogus.

    The Aegis changes the game in the sense that it qualifies as a launch area for US missile defense. Think US missiles with minimum flying time – around 30 minutes – from Moscow; that’s a certified threat to the Russian nation. The Russian military has also been “unambiguous”; if it is ascertained that NATO – via the Pentagon – is about to try something funny, there are grounds for a preventive strike by Iskander-M systems out of Transnistria – as in the destruction of the US missiles by conveniently armed precision weapons.

    Meanwhile, Moscow has pulled a stunning success – of course, it’s far from over – in Syria. So what’s left for the Pentagon – via NATO – is essentially to play the scare tactics card. They know Russia is prepared for war – certainly much better prepared than NATO. They know neither Putin nor the Russian military will back down because of kindergarten scaremongering. As for a too conciliatory tone by the Kremlin towards Washington, things may be about to change soon.

    Say hello to my S-500

    The Russian military are about to test the first prototypes of the S-500 Prometey air and missile defense system, also known as 55R6M Triumfator M – capable of destroying ICBMs, hypersonic cruise missiles and planes at over Mach 5 speeds; and capable of detecting and simultaneously attacking up to ten ballistic missile warheads at a range of 1300 km. This means the S-500 can smash ballistic missiles before their warheads re-enter the atmosphere.

    So in the case of RAND-style NATO pussyfooting, the S-500 would totally eliminate all NATO air power over the Baltic States – while the advanced Kornet missile would destroy all NATO armored vehicles. And that’s not even considering conventional weapon hell.

    If push comes to nuclear shove, the S-400 and especially the S-500 anti-missile missiles would block all incoming US ICBMs, cruise missiles and stealth aircraft. Offensive drones would be blocked by drone defenses. The S-500 practically consigns to the dustbin stealth warplanes such as the F-22, F-35 and the B-2.

    The bottom line is that Russia – in terms of hypersonic missile development – is about four generations ahead of the US, if we measure it by the development of the S-300, S-400 and S-500 systems. As a working hypothesis, we could describe the next system – already in the drawing boards – as the S-600. It would take the US military at least ten years to develop and roll out a new weapons system, which in military terms represents a generation. Every Pentagon planner worth his pension plan should know that.

    Russian – and Chinese – missiles are already able to knock out the satellite guidance systems for US nuclear tipped ICBMs and cruise missiles. They could also knock out the early alert warnings that the satellite constellations would give. A Russian hypersonic ICBM flight time, launched for instance from a Russian nuclear sub all the way to the US East Coast, counts for less than 20 minutes. So an early warning system is absolutely critical. Don’t count on the worthless THAAD and Patriot to do their job. Once again, Russian hypersonic technology has already rendered the entire missile defense system in both the US and Europe totally obsolete.

    So why is Moscow so worried by the Pentagon placing the Aegis system so close to Russia’s borders? A credible answer is that Moscow is always concerned that the US industrial military-complex might develop some really effective anti-missile missiles even though they are now about four generations behind.

    At the same time, Pentagon planners have reasons to be very worried by what they know, or hint. At the same time the Russian military – in a very Asian way – never reveal their full hand. The key fact of the matter needs to be stressed over and over again; the S-500 is impenetrable – and allows Russia for the first time in history to launch a first strike nuclear attack, if it ever chooses to do so, and be immune to retaliation.

    The rest is idle babbling. Still, expect the official Pentagon/NATO narrative to remain the same. After all, the industrial-military complex is a cash-devouring hydra, and a powerful enemy is a must (the phony Daesh “caliphate” does not count).

    The Threat Narrative rules that Russia has to meekly accept being surrounded by NATO. Russia is not allowed any response; in any case, any response will be branded as “Russian aggression”. If Russia defends itself, this will be “exposed” as an unacceptable provocation. And may even furnish the pretext for a pre-emptive attack by NATO against Russia.

    Now let those Pentagon/NATO planners duly go back to play in their lavish kindergarten.

  • Is There Ample Evidence To Indict Hillary? This Judge Thinks So

    After the latest State Department announcement that Hillary Clinton violated government rules, Judge Andrew Napolitano definitively says there is now ample evidence to indict. Sadly, he is much less certain on whether or not the indictment will actually come.

    Here is Napolitano's case as he laid it out to Bill O'reilly:

    "Today is a big deal for a couple of reasons. First, it directly refutes a statement she has made dozens of times, 'it was allowed', we now know that it was not allowed. She never even asked."

     

    "She signed a two page statement under oath on her first day on the job which was given after she had a two hour tutorial by two FBI agents telling her about the proper care and legal obligations for state secrets. In that oath she swore that she had the obligation to know how to care for state secrets and to recognize them."

     

    "Here is what's new in the report today. Her server in her house went down a couple of times, and when it went down the blackberry wouldn't work. The state department IT people said 'here use a state department blackberry', and she said through her assistant Huma Abedin 'no because we are concerned with the Freedom of Information Act', so she went dark and she had documents verbally read to her rather than transmitted to her through the state department email system."

    When Bill O'reilly was surprised to hear about the fact that Clinton was concerned about having documents subject to FOIA, Napolitano hammers home the the point that now the FBI has intent.

    "Now what does this tell the FBI? This shows intent. You don't have to prove intent when you're talking about espionage, you can prove it by gross negligence, there's ample evidence of gross negligence. But avoiding the transparency laws shows a consciousness of evading the requirements."

    On whether or not Napolitano believes, after all of the above, that Clinton will actually be indicted, the judge wasn't so sure.

    "I believe there's ample evidence to indict her and the only way she wouldn't be is if the president or the attorney general makes a political decision."

    And just as we said long ago, Napolitano also believes that one way or another, the FBI will get the evidence out to the public.

    "Whether she's indicted or not I believe we'll learn what it is. I believe it'll happen before the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, that's two months."

    * * *

    Well then, based on Obama's guarantee that there will be absolutely no political influence in the decision on whether or not the DOJ decides to indict, we should expect the indictment in the coming months… right?

    Full Interview

    Watch the latest video at video.foxnews.com

  • Five Years Later, TEPCO Still Can't Locate 600 Tons Of Melted Radioactive Fuel

    Five years after the Fukushima tragedy, TEPCO's chief of decommissioning Naohiro Masuda admits that the company still has no idea exactly where 600 tons of melted radioactive fuel from three nuclear reactors is located.

    As we discussed when we profiled the status of Fukushima on its five year anniversary, the radiation at the plant is still so powerful that it is impossible to get deep enough into the area to find and remove the melted fuel rods. The situation is so severe that even the robots that were sent in to find the highly radioactive fuel have died.

    Masuda went on to say that the company still hopes to locate and remove the missing fuel, but the fuel extraction technology is yet to be determined – that assumes they are able to locate it of course.

    "It's important to find it as soon as possible. Once we can find out the condition of the melted fuel and identify its location, I believe we can develop the necessary tools to retrieve it." said Masuda.

    Of course, this is easier said than done as everyone knows – as RT points out, if the radioactivity flux killed the robots that were sent in to find the material, human exploration is obviously out of the question. The first major hurdle in this effort is to first locate the material, let alone be able to find a way to extract it.

    As a reminder, when the 2011 tsunami caused the meltdown, uranium fuel of three power generating reactors gained critical temperature and burnt through the respective reactor pressure vessels, concentrating somewhere on the lower levels of the station that is currently filled with water.

    The company's decommission plan implies a 30-40 year period before the consequences of the meltdown are fully eliminated, however experts are skeptical that the technology is sufficient enough right now to deal with the task.

    Given the fact that nobody knows where the radioactive fuel is at this point, it may be a possibility that it's left there.

    It may be possible that we're never able to remove the fuel. You may just have to wind up leaving it there and somehow entomb it as it is,” said Jaczko, who headed the USNRC at the time of the Fukushima disaster.

    As RT explains, melted fuel rods and tons and tons of radioactive water aren't the only issues facing TEPCO's clean-up effort – there is also some 10 million plastic bags full of contaminated soil concentrated in gigantic waste dumps scattered around the devastated nuclear facility.

    There is also the cost of the clean up, although given the fact that the BOJ will monetize everything it's much less of an issue. At the time of the disaster the government said it was paying TEPCO $70 billion to enable the company to accomplish its decommissioning – and that number would likely be more than $240 billion over a 40 year time frame.

    To give context to the extend of the disaster, here is an eerie video of the area taken by a drone. We can only hope things are able to improve in the efforts to finally get this disaster taken care of.

  • China's Credit-Fuelled Economy Is "Gyrating Like A Spinning-Top That's Out Of Momentum"

    China's hard landing has already begun, warns economist Richard Duncan as the nation's credit-fuelled economic boom ended in 2015 and a protracted slump lies ahead. He has published a series of videos explaining why China’s economic development model of export-led and investment-driven growth is now in crisis leaving "China’s economy resembles a spinning top that is running out of momentum. It is wobbling and gyrating erratically."

     

     

    A former Hong Kong-based banking analyst, Duncan has also worked as an analyst at the World Bank, and as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London. He has authored three books on the global economic crisis, including The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures. He is now chief economist at the Singapore-based hedge fund Blackhorse Asset Management. Duncan was also a speaker at last week’s Asian Leadership Forum in Seoul, South Korea. The South China Morning Post was a media partner to the event. He runs the blog Macro Watch, a subscription-based website providing analysis on global economic trends.

    Source: The South China Morning Post

  • And Another Week Of Selling: "In 2016, Equity Funds Have Lost The Largest Ever Outflow For The Asset Class"

    For many weeks in a row now we have been asking, mostly jokingly, how with everyone else (both retail and “smart money”) selling, and with stock buybacks sharply lower in recent months, is the market higher. Specifically, who is buying?

    This question is no longer a joke. After this week’s 17th consecutive outflow by “smart money” funds (mostly on the back of surging hedge fund redemption), moments ago we got the latest Lipper fund flow data. It was, as BofA put it, “unambiguous risk-off weekly flows.”

    As BofA also put it: “Equities continued to experience outflows and lost $3.32bn (-0.1%) last week, their 4th consecutive decline. Year-to-date, equity funds have lost $58.6bn (-0.6%), the largest ever dollar outflow in any 22 week period for the asset class

    And yet, despite record retail outflows, despite record smart money selling, despite slowing buybacks, the S&P is not only higher on the year, but just shy off all time highs. At this rate the central banks will really need to reassess their strategy before they lose what little credibility they have left.

    Here are the fund flow details from BofA’s Michael Contopoulos:

    Equities continued to experience outflows and lost $3.32bn (-0.1%) last week, their 4th consecutive decline. Year-to-date, equity funds have lost $58.6bn (-0.6%), the largest ever dollar outflow in any 22 week period for the asset class.

     

     

     

    Global high yield saw a 4th consecutive week of outflows, led by non-US HY’s $2.2bn (-0.9%) outpour and partially offset by a minor $131mn (+0.1%) inflow into US domiciled high yield funds. The divergence is likely a result of US HY’s outperformance since the February 11th lows, outpacing its European counterpart by 6.5% over the 3.5 month span. Also a contributing factor is the ECB announcement of its Corporate Sector Purchase Program, which has caused European investors to pull money out of EU high yield and invest in ECB-eligible high grade corporates. Within the US, ETFs led the inflows (+$180mn, +0.5%) compared to a $49mn outflow (-0.0%) from non-ETFs.

     

     

    Meanwhile, loans gained $94mn (+0.1%) in net inflows, driven by the greater odds of a summer rate hike. Investment grade corporates continued to benefit from sizeable inflows, gaining $1.29bn (+0.1%) last week for the 14th straight inflow. Other asset classes we track reporting flows last week include EM Debt (-$324mn, -0.1%), munis (+$1.23bn, +0.3%), money markets (+$7.41bn, +0.3%), and commodities (-$271mn, -0.3%). As a whole, fixed income funds recorded a $2.53bn inflow, or +0.1% of AUM

    And the global flow details from Michael Hartnett

    • Equities: $9.2bn outflows (7 straight weeks) (note $11.1bn mutual fund outflows partially offset by $1.9bn ETF inflows)
    • Bonds: $2.6bn inflows (inflows in 12 of past 13 weeks)
    • Precious metals: tiny $32mn outflows (only the second week of outflows in 20 weeks)
    • Money-markets: $12.2bn inflows

    Fixed Income Flows (Chart 2)

    • First inflows to Govt/Tsy funds in 14 weeks ($0.6bn)
    • Largest outflows from HY bond funds in 15 weeks ($2.1bn)
    • Largest outflows from EM debt funds in 14 weeks ($0.3bn)
    • $2.5bn inflows to IG bond funds (12 straight weeks)
    • $1.2bn inflows to Munis (36 straight weeks)
    • Inflows to TIPS funds in 14 of past 15 weeks ($0.3bn)

    Equity Flows (Table 2)

    • Japan: $0.9bn outflows (first outflows in 3 weeks)
    • Europe: $3.3bn outflows (16 straight weeks)
    • EM: $2.0bn outflows (4 straight weeks)
    • US: $1.1bn outflows (outflows in 6 of past 7 weeks)
    • By sector, first outflows from REITs in 14 weeks ($0.2bn); largest financials inflows in
    • 5 months ($0.5bn); 6 straight weeks of tech outflows ($0.4bn)

    To summarize: everything except ETFs was sold in the past week; while global equity outflows in 2016 are now at a record high $105 billion for the 22 week period.

  • It`s A Technological Arm`s Race (Video)

    By EconMatters

     

    I have made some changes to my Trading Rig Configuration to account for more Natural Gas Trading, the US Dollar Index, the VIX and Bonds.

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • Examining American Exceptionalism

    Submitted by Stephen Bergstrom via The Saker blog,

    On the surface, American exceptionalism appears to represent a boldly-stated concept but when contrasted to the subtleties of personal experience, the lessons and flow of history and individual geographically-rooted place, horribly small-minded and delusional, conceivable only as a statement by a crazed, power-hungry overlord to an underling.

    Synchronized beautifully in 2004 by a senior aide to Bush Jr. to Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Ron Suskind writing in the New York Times Magazine, American Exceptionalism is,

    ”…an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do…” (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/17/magazine/17BUSH.html).

    To begin examination, let’s take a closer look at basic definitions (courtesy of Merriam-Webster).

    Exceptional:

    1. not usual
    2. unusual or uncommon
    3. unusually good

    ism:

    1. the act, practice, or process of doing something
    2. behavior like that of a specified kind of person or thing
    3. unfair treatment of a group of people who have a particular quality

    Exceptionalism:

    1. the condition of being different from the norm; also
    2. a theory expounding the exceptionalism especially of a nation or region

    Combining the above, we realize that exceptionalism equates to perception or a perceiving of self that endows the perceiver with uncommon power.

    In the case of the United States, seeming high-level leadership self-perceives that the U.S. is “exceptional” (i.e., unusual or unusually good in possession of the ability to act) and does not need to conform to normal rules or general principles. In worldly terms, the U.S. exits the brotherhood of nations and is empire among middling servant states.

    Voicing American Exceptionalism

    U.S. President Barack Obama speaking at the 2009 NATO Summit, Strasbourg, France,

    “I believe in American exceptionalism…we have a core set of values that are enshrined in our Constitution, in our body of law, in our democratic practices, in our belief in free speech and equality, that, though imperfect, are exceptional…”

    U.S. President Barack Obama speaking to West Point’s graduating class 2014,

    “America must always lead on the world stage…The United States is the one indispensable nation…I believe in American exceptionalism with every fabric of my being…”

    Then actor and to-be President, Ronald Reagan at the First Conservative Political Action Conference, 1974,

    “…We cannot escape our destiny, nor should we try to do so. The leadership of the free world was thrust upon us two centuries ago in that little hall of Philadelphia. In the days following World War II, when the economic strength and power of America was all that stood between the world and the return to the dark ages, Pope Pius XII said, ‘The American people have a great genius for splendid and unselfish actions. Into the hands of America God has placed the destinies of an afflicted mankind.’

     

    We are indeed, and we are today, the last best hope of man on earth.”

     

    The City on the Hill: Finding the Roots to American Exceptionalism

    First Governor of the Massachusetts Bay Colony John Winthrop (1588-1649) represented early American Puritanical Tradition. Addressing a bevy of puritan emigrants waiting to disembark the Arabella to create the first settlement in what would become the first of the New England states, Winthrop declared,

    “…we shall find that the God of Israel is among us, when ten of us shall be able to resist a thousand of our enemies…for we must Consider that we shall be as a City upon a Hill, the eyes of all people are upon us…”

    That forenamed city destined to be recast time and again by America’s political leadership and undoubtedly favored by those behind that leadership, first by Reagan in his same above speech;

    “Standing on the tiny deck of the Arabella in 1630 off the Massachusetts coast, John Winthrop said, ‘We will be as a city upon a hill. The eyes of all people are upon us, so that if we deal falsely with our God in this work we have undertaken and so cause Him to withdraw His present help from us, we shall be made a story and a byword throughout the world.’ Well, we have not dealt falsely with our God…”

    President-elect John F. Kennedy said, in an address to the Massachusetts Legislature on January 9, 1961,

    “During the last 60 days I have been engaged in the task of constructing an administration…. I have been guided by the standard John Winthrop set before his shipmates on the flagship Arabella [sic] 331 years ago, as they, too, faced the task of building a government on a new and perilous frontier. ‘We must always consider,’ he said, ‘that we shall be as a city upon a hill—the eyes of all people are upon us.’”

    From George H. W. Bush’s “thousand points of light” to Bill Clinton’s “America has a special role in the eyes of God” to John Kerry’s “…we have moved closer to the America we can become – for our own people, for the country, and for all the world…”, to lesser weighted John Bolton’s “The most important thing you need is a president who is proud of the United States of America, who believes in American exceptionalism” to Condy Rice’s, “When the world looks to America, they look to us because we are the most successful economic and political experiment in human history. That is the true basis of American exceptionalism…” special effort has been made to convince America she is biblically-blessed and exceptional.

     

    A Truth Hidden, Half Told

    But conviction does not always mesh with contradiction nor will those convicted remain so in the face of evidence, direct personal experience and the geography of place.

    Alexis de Tocqueville was one. The son of Norman aristocrats, de Tocqueville lives a short life. Born in Paris, July 29th, 1805, he travels to America in 1831 and publishes the tome upon which his fame rests, Democracy in America, in the year of his thirtieth birthday, 1835 and in which he observed that America was creating ”…a distinct species of mankind…(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/american-exceptionalism/).

    But in what ways distinct?

    In Tocqueville’s eyes, Americans will be birthed first by mindset in the Winthropian, “… Puritanical origin…” and meshed then with “…exclusively commercial habits…”

    And in what ways convicted?

    The American, this distinct species of mankind, de Tocqueville asserts will become convicted, will become aware of their personal distinctiveness through uniqueness of place, through the,

    “…country they inhabit which seems to divert their minds from the pursuit of science, literature, and the arts, the proximity of Europe … to fix the mind of the American upon purely practical objects. His passions, his wants, his education, and everything about him seem to unite in drawing the native of the United States earthward…” (http://www.visionandvalues.org/2011/04/the-roots-of-tocqueville-s-american-exceptionalism/#sthash.CIhYaf5j.dpuf).

    And therein lies contradiction and echoes so much of what the world says about America, about despising the policies of a government etched in puritanical righteousness and commercial industry and imported inventiveness that exports war and fiat currency but loving a people contradicted and tempered by place, by the geographical, by the land, by windswept prairies, by three coasts, by 14,000 foot mountaintops, by desert, by waterways, by Great Lakes as big as oceans, by the echo and remaining presence of the country’s native Turtle Island, by the original earth-based inhabitants, by the combined sources of the continent’s non-corporate literature and artistic impulses and the unbidden anti-hero like suspicion, resistance and mockery at the everyday level to technological boondoggle and oversized government.

    This Curious Exceptional Dilemma

    In the hands of the few, trademarked American Exceptionalism acts as a battering ram, is a corporate brand name front that unites evangelism, militarism and Keynesianism, that installs dictators, that perpetuates privately-owned fiat currencies, that topples the same dictators to create in name-only democracies, that trains militants and insurgents, that funds gladio-styled terrorism, NATO, international banking organizations, the IMF, the World Bank, Export-Import Banks, that emasculates Europe, that fans and funds conflict between installed dictators and in name-only democracies, between insurgents and loyalists, this City on the Hill, these thousand points of light.

    But below the surface, this thing about America that is exceptional but not distinct from other cultures, her land, her native roots, her resistance by natives long thought exterminated and to be made extinct by cavalries and cannons, by legislation, by armed men riding trains gunning down millions of bison, acts of terrorism and food and shelter-based genocide, by reservation life, this America inspired by the land, by her earthiness, influences this unexceptional America, is non-corporate artistic, makes small press literature, invents good things, does not war, combats big pharma, forced vaccinations, big ag, big biz, big banks, chemtrails, opposes GMOs, opposes false flags, staged shootings and propagandized media, billion dollar political campaigns and privately-owned, fiat-issuing central banks, hallmarks all of Exceptional Empire, writes songs, sings, dances, drums, shapes pottery, tears down pork barrel, fractionalized fiat currency hydro-electric dams, honors the sacred, loves animals, grows gardens, all as if a secret to celebrity-promoted corporate media but known by the hearts of many, by foreign tourists walking through centuries old Santa Fe, traipsing through Navajo country, watching salmon run, peering at petroglyphs in HOPI land, known by creatives, known by seekers, known by the evidence, becomes human, not exceptional.

  • "You Are Redefining Yourself As A Comic-Book Villain" – Nick Denton's Open Letter To Peter Thiel

    Now that Peter Thiel’s vendetta against Nick Denton is in the open, and it’s safe to say that the tech billionaire will not stop before putting Gawker out of business, Denton is starting to scramble realizing that he has a borderline irrational adversary, one for whom money is no object if it means a tombstone for the gossip tabloid.

    And, as the attached just issued open letter to Peter Thiel by Denton, who asks for a public debate to resolve some differences, reveals the panic is palpable. What happens next in this, ironically, soon to be made into a Hollywood movie drama, could be almost as entertaining as the US presidential election.

    Here is Denton’s Open Letter to Peter Thiel.

    Peter Thiel,

    Nearly a decade ago, after you had opened up to friends and colleagues, a gay writer for Gawker shared an item with the readers of Valleywag, a section for news and gossip about the rich and powerful of Silicon Valley. “Peter Thiel, the smartest VC in the world, is gay,” wrote Owen Thomas. “More power to him.”

    And more power did indeed come to you. Your investments in Facebook and other companies have given you a net worth of more than $2 billion. You have tapped some of that fortune to support gay groups such as HomoCon. It is now clear that gay people are everywhere, not just in industries such as entertainment, but at the pinnacles of Silicon Valley power.

    I thought we had all moved on, not realizing that, for someone who aspires to immortality, nine years may not be such a long time as it seems to most of us. Max Levchin, your fellow founder at Paypal, told me back in 2007 you were concerned about the reaction, not in Silicon Valley, but among investors in your hedge fund from less tolerant places such as Saudi Arabia. He also warned of the retribution you would exact if a story was published about your personal life.

    Your revenge has been served well, cold and (until now) anonymously. You admit you have been planning the punishment of Gawker and its writers for years, and that you have so far spent $10 million to fund litigation against the company. Charles Harder, the Hollywood plaintiff’s lawyer who has marshaled your legal campaign, is representing not just the wrestler Hulk Hogan on your behalf, but two other subjects of stories in suits against Gawker and its editorial staff.

    You told the New York Times that you are motivated by friends who had their lives ruined by Gawker coverage, and that your funding is a “philanthropic” project to help other “victims” of negative stories. Let us run through a few examples so that people can actually read the articles you find so illegitimate, and make their own judgment about their newsworthiness.

    Sean Parker, a partner in your Founders Fund and an early backer of Facebook, is one of the friends who was covered extensively on Gawker’s Valleywag. Those stories, some of them by me, helped define the colorful character played by Justin Timberlake in The Social Network, the David Fincher movie about the founding of Facebook. Parker was stung more recently by criticism from his neighbors of the disruption to 10th St. in Manhattan when the street was dug up to get a Fios line to Bacchus House, the famous party venue where Parker had been planning to live. Valleywag covered that story, as well as his lavish and controversial wedding in the redwoods near Big Sur.

    Hulk Hogan was the first client represented by Charles Harder in a suit against Gawker. As we now know, the famous wrestler and entertainer sued over snippets of a sex tape apparently in order to shut down reporting of a racist rant against a black man dating his daughter.

    Ashley Terrill, also represented by Harder, is suing Gawker for $10 million for defamation. She is a reporter who offered information about the conflict between the founders of two dating apps, Tinder and Bumble, who herself became part of the story after claiming she was being harassed and surveilled by agents of Tinder co-founder Whitney Wolfe.

    Shiva Ayyadurai is a Massachusetts entrepreneur who says he invented email—about a decade after email was actually invented. A story on Gizmodo, Gawker’s tech property, said straight out that his claims were false, as did the Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times. Represented also by the lawyer you hired, Ayyadurai is suing Gawker for $35 million for defamation, though not the other news organizations that made the same point.

    Peter Thiel—that is, you. Yes, Gawker has often been critical. Our writers have derided your views on female suffrage, mocked the libertarian separatist vision of offshore seasteads free of government interference, and questioned some of the businesses you have backed. There is much more. They don’t find you very likable.

    I can see how irritating Gawker would be to you and other figures in the technology industry. For Silicon Valley, the media spotlight is a relatively recent phenomenon. Most executives and venture capitalists are accustomed to dealing with acquiescent trade journalists and a dazzled mainstream media, who will typically play along with embargoes, join in enthusiasm for new products, and hew to the authorized version of a story. They do not have the sophistication, and the thicker skins, of public figures in other older power centers such as New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C.

    And I can see how tempting it would be to use Silicon Valley’s most abundant resource, a vast fortune, against the harsh words of the writers of a small New York media company. We have our devices; you have yours.

    Among the million posts published by Gawker and other properties since the company was founded, there have undoubtedly been occasions we overstepped the line. In offsetting the fawning coverage of tech luminaries and others, sometimes our stories swing too far for my taste toward snark.

    But this vindictive decade-long campaign is quite out of proportion to the hurt you claim. Your plaintiff’s lawyer, Charles Harder, has sued not just the company, but individual journalists.

    A.J. Daulerio, author of the 2012 story on Hulk Hogan, is out of work and unable to pay the $100,000 in punitive damages awarded by the jury. In the Ayyadurai and Terrill complaints, Harder cynically paints author Sam Biddle as an abuser of narcotics, basing this claim on Biddle’s own writing about his struggle with anxiety and depression, and the physician-prescribed medication he takes to treat his mood disorders. John Cook, our executive editor, is accused of negligent hiring and retention.

    Peter, this is twisted. Even were you to succeed in bankrupting Gawker Media, the writers you dislike, and me, just think what it will mean.

    The world is already uncomfortable with the unaccountable power of the billionaire class, the accumulation of wealth in Silicon Valley, and technology’s influence over the media.

    You are a board member of Facebook, which is under congressional investigation after our site Gizmodo reported on the opaque and potentially biased way it decides what news sources are seen by its billions of users.

    Now you show yourself as a thin-skinned billionaire who, despite all the success and public recognition that a person could dream of, seethes over criticism and plots behind the scenes to tie up his opponents in litigation he can afford better than they.

    You were the basis for the affectless venture capitalist in the HBO show, Silicon Valley; with this diabolical decade-long scheme for revenge, you are redefining yourself as a comic-book villain.

    This story will play out in the press and the courts. Both are adversarial forums, in which each side selects facts and quotes to undermine the reputation and credibility of the other. We are confident of our arguments on the newsworthiness of our Hogan story, once it reaches the appeals court. Your main proxy, Hulk Hogan, has his.

    We, and those you have sent into battle against us, have been stripped naked, our texts, online chats and finances revealed through the press and the courts; in the next phase, you too will be subject to a dose of transparency. However philanthropic your intention, and careful the planning, the details of your involvement will be gruesome.

    I’m going to suggest an alternative approach. The best regulation for speech, in a free society, is more speech. We each claim to respect independent journalism, and liberty. We each have criticisms of the other’s methods and objectives. Now you have revealed yourself, let us have an open and public debate.

    The court cases will proceed as long as you fund them. And I am sure the war of headlines will continue. But, even if we put down weapons just for a brief truce, let us have a more constructive exchange.

    We can hold the discussion in person with a moderator of your choosing, in front of an audience, under the auspices of the Committee to Protect Journalists, or in a written discussion on some neutral platform such as Medium. Just tell me where and when.

    At the very least, it will improve public understanding of the interplay of media and power. Considering the amount spent on lawyers, $20 million between us at this point, there should be some public benefit.

    In the meantime, here are some more pointed and immediate questions.

    • Have you or your representatives paid Hulk Hogan personally in addition to covering his legal expenses?
    • You say that you are operating much like a contingency lawyer, so does that mean you will take a third of any final judgement, or more?
    • You said you were funding several cases. Specifically, can you confirm you are funding Charles Harder’s work for Shiva Ayyadurai and Ashley Terrill?
    • Is your goal to bankrupt, buy, or wound Gawker Media? If you were to own the company after a final judgment in the Hogan case, what would your editorial strategy be?
    • You say that Gawker is not a legitimate news source. Do you take the same view of the other properties—Gizmodo, Deadspin, Jezebel, Kotaku, Jalopnik and Lifehacker?
    • As a Facebook board member, how have your own views on politics and news influenced your contribution to corporate decisions?
    • When you say your aim is deterrence rather than revenge, whom do you aim to deter?
    • You said you wanted to even the legal playing field for people without your resources. If Gawker Media was forced to sell the company to pay a bond or fight these court cases, would you and your agents seek to block that transaction?
    • Is Sean Parker the friend you mentioned that persuaded you to pursue this campaign?
    • And lastly, I understand that you give codenames from Tolkien for all your projects. What’s this one? (Let me guess: Mordor.)

    * * *

    Somehow we doubt that after reading this letter, Thiel’s rage will be in any way reduced. In fact, quite the opposite.

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Today’s News 26th May 2016

  • Imminent Intervention? Greece, Italy, & Malta Close Airspace For Aircraft From Libya

    Via KeepTalkingGreece.com,

    Weird things are happening in the Mediterranean Sea. Almost simultaneously three countries in the Mediterranean have closed their airspace and territories for aircraft departing from Libya. The exceptions are very few and involve the transport of military and evacuees. At the same time, three NATO exercises are taking place but the airspace closure and directly little to do with that.

    The first country to close its airspace for aircraft departing from Libya” was Italy, followed by Malta. Today it was Greece’s turn. All three countries issued relevant NOTAMs:

    Italy on May 11 and closes the airspace May 11 – August 8 2016, consequently at the same period Malta that issued the NOTAM on May 12.

    Greece’s NOTAM was issued today, May 25th and the period for banning aircraft departed from Libya to overflight and land  is given as May 25th – September 8, 2016.

    The overlapping FIR closure period by the three countries is actually May 25 – August 8 2016.

    What is interesting in the Greek NOTAM are aircraft like “military aircraft of other nations, state flights or other VIP flights, ambulance flights” are not affected by the ban. Italy records also some exceptions but not of “ambulance aircraft.”

    Why do Greece, Italy and Malta need to close their airspace and territories to aircraft departing from Libya? Is there something the NATO allies have on their mind? Or the NATO itself? Something like an imminent intervention against Libya? It was beginning of April when US President Barack Obama and Secretary General Jens Stoltenrbg had declared that they could help Libya to face the Islamic Caliphate.

    Defense news website OnAlert.gr that brought up this exclusive story, notes that there is already since May 17th the NATO exercise “Phoenix Express 2016” (Phoenix 2016) taking part off the island of Crete.

    The exercise scenarios focus geographically in North Africa, The forces that participate in Phoenix 2016 are: Algeria, Egypt, Greece, Italy, Malta, Mauritania, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey and the United States.

    “The at-sea portion of the exercise will test North African, European, and U.S. forces’ abilities to combat illegal migration, illicit trafficking, and movement of materials for weapons of mass destruction. Additionally, participating forces will work together to practice procedures of search-and-rescue in cases where vessels are in distress. Participating Maritime Operations Centers (MOCs) will exercise information sharing practices.”

     

    Exercise Phoenix Express is one of three U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa/U.S. 6th Fleet facilitated regional exercises.

    (announcement by USA Navy)

    Phoenix 2016 will conclude on May 27th.

    Right after that date, two NATO Refueling Exercises will take place, south and west of the island of Crete (May 30-21/2016) and south and west of the island of Karpathos (May 31-June 1/2016)

    According to Greek NOTAMs refering to NATO Refueling exercises.

    According to OnAlert,gr there has been increase of NATO exercises in the area recently.

    So it looks as if Greece will play a significant role in a possible intervention against Libya and even be able to receive aircraft that have departed from Libya carrying evacuees, VIP and other…

    Such in case that the scenario comes true and thus before summer is over.

    It is not clear whether also Libya’s neighbors Egypt, Algeria and Tunesia have issued similar NOTAMs.

  • Rising prices of raisins – The real effect of rampant inflation and FX

    Inflation is out of control.  Now, we mostly agree that the Fed’s official inflation numbers are just – ridiculous.  But the real inflation, is even harder to quantify, and more subtle – as we explain in Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex.  What drives inflation is NOT Adam Smith’s “Supply and Demand” – an interesting idea but completely static, and completely irrelevant for practical applications – and certainly not useful for business, or economic forcasting.  Inflation is a simple function of monetary policy, multiplied by FX.  That means, in today’s world, inflation must be counted including the FX markets because – no matter how much USD the Fed prints, it’s constantly being exchanged for Euros and Yen on the open FX markets.  FX is a limited, finite system.  But the USD itself – is not.  It’s defined by other currencies, and the market value of the USD vs. others.

    Other less quantitative signs of inflation:

    • Reduction of quality
    • Less quantity, but for the same price (less chips in the bag, every year)
    • Intentional, engineered ‘appearance’ of more (there are less chips, and bag is bigger too)
    • Accompanying marketing ‘feel good’ slogans 

    The best signs of real inflation, not the academic mumbo jumbo Fedspeak produced by The Fed and Federal Economic Departments (like BEA), is FX – and consumer goods.  Because we need energy, we need food.  Without food and energy, society can’t function.  We can live without iphones, we can live without Tesla, we can live without many ‘industries’ – but we can’t live without food, at least based on our modern consumption system used by most human beings on this small planet Earth.  And speaking of iphones, they all rely on energy – Apple (AAPL) investors should hedge their bets with energy stocks.  We can expect that high-tech products have inflation, but take a look at the real inflation, the rising prices of raisins:

    You wouldn’t think this is unusual, based on data from the raisin growers:

    So what gives?  Here’s the deal.  Recently I learned my wife is pregnant and so we’ve changed our diet (in addition to our whole lives – that’s another topic).  Having a dash of chemicals here and there for an adult is one thing, but for a developing newborn and pregnant mother, it’s out of the question.  We have in the south Earthfare, which is notably much more picky and choosy than WholeFoods, their customers more fussy and thus everything is much more expensive.  But the point here is that these raisins, are like the raisins we used to get really cheaply, 20 or 30 years ago.  Now you have to go to a place like Earthfare to get real food, by real I mean not artificial, loaded with chemicals, fillers, and other things that make for a good science experiment.  Health is another topic, but economically speaking – this is an excellent example of what inflation is.  Inflation isn’t necessarily when prices go up, although $6.99 a pound for raisins is alot.  It’s about deteriorating quality.  When the Fed picks a basket of goods to calculate CPI, what ‘goods’ do they choose?  Certainly, NOT products from Earthfare or Wholefoods.  Quality is qualitative, so it’s hard to overlay a deterioration of quality line against the CPI or do statistical analysis.  There are methods though, to evaluate quality and its deterioration.  

    The problem is that – in order to prove the status quo establishment method –  quality is deteriorating, by using methods by establishment institutions, and from data by establishment institutions, is a paradox.  In other words, we have to think outside of the box, and use our intuition.  For example if we look to the CDC for a correlation, we’ll get nothing:

    Checkout the full report, Surveillance for Foodborne Disease Outbreaks — United States, 1998–2008.

    But, this is the same CDC that tells us to wash our hands to fight disease, the same CDC that exposed its own worker to Ebola.

    You must see for yourself.  The raisins you eat – are they like when you were a child?  How do you remember, the taste of tomato, apple, grape, melon, and veggies?  The organic movement itself is riddled with misleading information and corruption.  But at the end of the day, if a consumer wants a ‘real’ raisin, not frankenfoods sold by major grocers, you have to pay the price, and buy Organic, or grow your own.

    How does FX enter the raisin market?  If the Currency markets were fixed, something could be said about supply and demand.  Raisin growers now compete with farms from around the world.  The world’s flat, and payment is instantaneous.  Farmers don’t only compete domestically, they compete internationally.  Farmers outside the USD world maybe aren’t subsidized like those in the US, but they sure are subsidized (indirectly) by their central banks, who like to make their currencies worthless, thus making the prices of these inferior raisins much cheaper, and more attractive.  Farmers at least can hedge this risk by opening a forex account and trading, but the end result of the current capitalistic system we have in the world is one thing:  garbage.  Our brains are deteriorating, health, quality of life, society, relationships, all the way down the maslow pyramid to what Americans used to love: food.  In major chains there’s not much difference between pork and beef.  Not that many could notice the difference.

    At least, there are methods to fight this disease we call inflation, as we explain in our book – Splitting Pennies.  We’ve released a slightly longer paperback edition which is really popularget a copy for only $14.98.  The book is only the beginning.  It’s only a key – you must use it to unlock the door to your new life.

  • The Truth Behind The Surge In Conservative "Extremism"

    Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    The definition of “extremist” is a rather ambiguous issue primarily dependent on opinion rather than fact. That is to say, it is generally the people in power and their propaganda mouthpieces that determine who is an extremist and who is not. There is no set or fair standard.

    If you are a quiet and passive sort of citizen with no political deviations and no thoughts outside of what is considered “mainstream,” then you are probably considered a non-threat to the establishment. If, however, you promote an ideal that is opposed to the establishment agenda and display a potential to actually ACT to fight for that ideal, then you will eventually be labeled an extremist.

    So who sets the standard for extremism in America today? The responsibility of enforcement has been undertaken by the Department of Homeland Security. But, the initial profiling of extremism and the engineering behind the farcical talking points that the DHS often uses and spreads to local law enforcement agencies is the work of the Southern Poverty Law Center.

    The SPLC’s profiling guidelines on extremism and terrorism tend to end up in DHS and fusion center reports that are usually not meant for the eyes of the public. A more well-known example would be the exposure of the Missouri Information Analysis Center (MIAC) Report back in 2009 which listed Ron Paul supporters as being potential terrorists. The SPLC complained widely that the MIAC report should not have been abandoned after the uproar from conservatives, but instead, should have been pursued.

    The SPLC lists “active anti-government groups” on their website with a nicely made but meaningless graph which would have you believe that such groups have exploded in number since 2008. How the SPLC designates groups as “anti-government” is entirely dependent on their own baseless opinions rather than any discernible or practical method. They could easily make their graph say anything they want it to say and pretend there is some kind of science to it.

    Hilariously, the SPLC lists my own website, Alt-Market, as an “anti-government group” under Pennsylvania, the state I lived in when Alt-Market was first established. Apparently, they consider a website a “group,” and I suppose I should be flattered that my individual efforts have been effective enough to constitute a group-sized threat in their minds.

    I am also not “anti-government.” I am anti-corrupt government, but the SPLC does not seem to care at all about this kind of distinction.

    I can say that Alt-Market is certainly not a group. While I do promote the formation of private barter groups as well as mutual aid and community security groups, these groups are in no way under the control of Alt-Market. If the SPLC considers me, all by my lonesome, as an anti-government group, then I question the validity of their list. If they had some confusion as to what Alt-Market was, all they had to do was ask me, but they never have.

    I addressed the SPLC directly and outlined the corruption inherent in their institution years ago in my article ‘A Message To The SPLC From A Montana “Extremist.”’ To summarize, the SPLC’s goal is to promote Cultural Marxism while incessantly demonizing the opposing belief system — true conservatism. They do this through the use of an old propaganda ploy called ‘false association.’

    If you examine the SPLC’s list of people they consider prominent extremists in the U.S., you will find a mixture of liberty movement proponents with their photos pasted right next to white supremacists and Klu Klux Klan members. This is not an accident. The strategy is to associate liberty activists with racists in the minds of the SPLC’s gullible readership without risking lawsuit by defamation.

    For example, the SPLC has never (as far as I know) directly labeled liberty voices like Stewart Rhodes or Chuck Baldwin as “racists” or supremacists. However, they will work very hard in various media including their magazine ‘Intelligence Report’ (equating “intelligence” with the SPLC is a laughable premise) to influence the public to attach ideas of liberty to racial supremacy as if they are part of the same ideological movement.

    Now frankly, I do not care if an individual or group “hates” another individual or group. As long as they do not harm anyone, invade their privacy or impede their constitutional rights, then it is none of my business. This does not mean I agree with them, but they have a right to believe whatever they want to believe.

    The SPLC, along with the “extreme left,” though, does not think that people have a right to believe what they want to believe, and this is where problems start to emerge. The movement to criminalize “hate speech” may be a paper tiger, it may not. According to some polls, 41 percent of Americans and over half of Democrats support the criminalization of hate speech.

    Again, if such speech is criminalized, then who gets to determine the definition of what hate speech is? Yes, most likely it will be social justice think-tanks like the SPLC.

    That which constitutes “hate speech” and that which constitutes “extremism” is invariably conservative in nature… according to the SPLC and the DHS. Though you will see far more race-hate related speech from groups like Black Lives Matter, you will probably never see them listed on the SPLC’s website.

    Conservative opposition to illegal immigration, to the medieval tyranny of Islamic sharia law, to government enforcement of transgender ideology on private property, along with conservative support of 2nd Amendment rights of firearms ownership and 1st Amendments rights in the face of “hate speech” legislation have all been categorized as extremism or racism by the SPLC. This is not simply a battle of ideas with no tangible consequences outside of the academic. The poison of cultural Marxism championed by the SPLC is leaching into everyday life.

    I was sent this example recently; a story out of Washington D.C. in which a man in a wig entered the women’s bathroom at a Giant supermarket (private property). A female security guard at the establishment forced “Ebony Belcher” (see photo below) to leave the bathroom according to store policy after the man refused to heed verbal warnings.  The security guard cited that there was no law allowing transgenders to violate the store's bathroom policy.

    Belcher then proceeded to file a complaint with D.C. police. Instead of shrugging off the incident as a matter of private property as they should have, police arrested the guard pursuant of “hate crime” charges.

    This is merely one incident, yes, but it is now one of MANY examples of government force backing cultural Marxists, and is representative of where the entire nation is headed if the SPLC and the federal government get their way.

    The position that private property owners have the right to restrict a person who has the genetics and biology of a man to male bathroom facilities in order to protect the privacy and safety of their female customers is now being called a hate crime. That which is entirely practical and sane today will be labeled dangerous “extremism” tomorrow.

    Therefore, I would submit to you that there is no “surge” in conservative extremism. Instead, normal longstanding conservative principles, along with conservative groups and individuals are being increasingly and arbitrarily labeled as “extremists.” We are not necessarily becoming more dangerous than we were before, more of us are just being targeted as dangerous by well-placed political minorities in a war of cultural dominance.

    That said, conservative individuals and groups that are targeted will of course move to defend themselves. The orchestrated demonization and sublimation of conservatives on the part of cultural Marxists is the very definition of true extremism, and when one group decides to implement an extremist methodology in order to attain power over others, it is inevitable that they will invite an equal or greater opposing reaction.

    The Washington Post recently warned of this reaction in an exposé titled Primed To Fight The Government.

    The article begins in typical establishment propaganda fashion by immediately working to inoculate readers against conservative or liberty movement viewpoints. The SPLC is, of course, brought in to repeat their standard list of lies and half-truths while noting that their list of extremist groups has skyrocketed ever since 2008 — when America’s first black president was elected. This is surely intended once again to associate liberty activists with racism.

    There is no mention of the numerous groups and individuals on their list (myself included) who started their work long before 2008 and have been as consistently critical of white republicans as they have been of Barack Obama.

    The Post then finally allows the primary subjects of the article, B.J. Soper and his Central Oregon Constitutional Guard, to give their voice on the matter. Soper comes off as even handed and solidly grounded, with views easily supported by verifiable evidence; he did not appear as “extreme” as the SPLC might prefer.

    If The Washington Post and the SPLC are truly curious as to the source of the supposed surge in conservatives “ready to go to war” with the government, I would challenge them to set aside their bias (or ignore their corporate handlers) and look more closely at the behavior of the government today as well as the extremists on the “Left” side of the political spectrum.

    Perhaps they should take a more mathematical approach to their views on the socialization of America and its clear negative effects on our economic future.

    Perhaps they should take a closer look at the UN’s “Strong Cities Network,” which is a program in collaboration with governments around the world including the U.S. to weaponize local communities against any behavior considered "extremist"; promoting a world of self-policing and self censoring towns and cities while instituting anti-extremist (mostly anti-conservative) policies on an Orwellian scale.

    Perhaps they should examine how free speech is being progressively eroded with legal “exceptions” in the name of protecting people’s tender feelings or protecting the public from “dangerous ideas.” True conservatives understand that NO ONE has the right to limit the speech of everyone in the name of personal comfort for an overly-sensitive few, and for some reason this makes us extremists.

    Perhaps they should re-think their accusations of “racism” against the tens of millions of Americans of all ethnicities who stand against illegal immigration. Perhaps by ignoring the fact that the vast majority of people who oppose illegal immigration do so based on realistic economic and social dangers is pressuring conservatives to see armed preparedness as the only avenue left to them.

    Or perhaps the establishment should acknowledge that they have been militarizing local police forces and indoctrinating them with assertions that conservatives are a menace, a racist, fascist ticking time bomb ready to explode and that must be contained or re-educated. Conservatives are not going to simply stand by idly forever while this kind of fourth generation warfare continues unchallenged. Obviously we are preparing for a fight. When one is attacked, defense is natural.

    As I point out in my article The Weirdest Possible Outcomes For The Strangest Election In History, the potential for violent divisions within the U.S. over the course of this election year is very high. In fact, the stage is pretty well set for conflict regardless of who becomes president.

    The mob actions and growing madness of the extreme left, instigated and in some cases funded (Ferguson, Missouri) by elitists like George Soros is going to force conservatives into a position of armed reaction. It is only a matter of time. And perhaps this is what the elites prefer — Americans fighting and killing other Americans while they sit back and enjoy the show. After all, the failure of America is a perfect justification for the greater influence of globalism to stem the tide of “nationalist fervor.” And in a totally globalized and collectivized world, conservatism has no place.

    Conservatives are called “extremists” because the establishment needs an excuse to get rid of us.  We are threat, yes, but only to power mongers and their collectivist hordes. More and more of us grow awake and aware of the program each day. As a result of this awakening, we end up becoming more extreme by mainstream definition in order to protect ourselves and our values. Ultimately, to be an extremist conservative is not a crime against humanity as some would have us believe. To be an extremist conservative in the face of open conflagration against the principles of freedom is to be on the right side of history.

  • An Inside Look at the World's Biggest Paper Gold Market

    Every day, there are a whopping 5,500 tonnes ($212 billion) of gold traded in London, making it the largest wholesale and over-the-counter (OTC) market for gold in the world.

    To put that in perspective, Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes that  more gold is traded in London each day than what is stored at Fort Knox (4,176 tonnes). On a higher volume day, amounts closer to total U.S. gold reserves (8,133.5 tonnes) can change hands.

    How is this possible?

    The infographic below tells the story about gold’s foremost trading hub, as well as the paper gold market in London, England:

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

     

    London is dominant in global price discovery for gold.

    In 2015, it accounted for roughly 88% of gold trade – most of which occurs between banks on behalf of their clients. Further, 90% of London trade is spot trading, which further emphasizes London’s importance in price discovery for gold markets.

    While the high-level details of the market are visible, the individual mechanisms behind the London gold trade are less clear. There is very little detailed information provided on physical shipments, outstanding gold deposits or loans, allocated or unallocated gold, or clientele types. Trade reporting also breaks down at a more granular level, and datasets on the GOFO (Gold Forward Offered Rate) were also discontinued in January, 2015.

    Almost all gold (95%) traded in London is unallocated and without legal title. This makes it easier to trade, but it also raises concerns about a market that is opaque to begin with. There are 5,500 tonnes of paper gold exchanging hands on paper each day, but there are only 300 tonnes of gold vaulted in London outside of the reserves for ETFs or the Bank of England.

    What would happen if there was ever even a small rush to get the physical asset behind the paper? Is there a system in place for such an event, and how does it work?

    Original graphic by: BullionStar

  • Quantitative Easing And The Corruption Of Corporate America

    Submitted by Danielle DiMartino Booth via DiMartinoBooth.com,

    The art of brevity was not lost on Abraham Lincoln. It is that brevity in all its glory that shines through in what endures as one of the most beautiful testaments to the art of oration: The Gettysburg Address rounds out at 272 resounding words. The nation’s 16th President humbly predicted that the world would quickly forget his words of that November day in 1863. Rather, he said, history would solely evoke the valiant acts of men such as those whose blood still soaked the consecrated battleground on which they stood. Of course, Lincoln was both right and wrong. Neither the men who sacrificed their lives nor his words would be forgotten. We remember and know that a terrible and ever mounting price would ultimately be paid, some 623,026 American lives, the steepest in man’s bloody history.

    In what can only be described as the pinnacle of prescience, a 28-year old Lincoln foretold of the coming Civil War, which he presaged would come to pass if the scourge of slavery remained unchecked. In an address to the Young Men’s Lyceum of Springfield, Illinois in January 1838, Lincoln spoke these haunting words: “If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher.” The enemy within.

    Since that devastating brother against brother Civil War, so prophetically foreseen by Lincoln, more than 626,000 American soldiers have lost their lives defending the ideals and freedom of our Union. Today that Union stands, but it must now face the threat of an enemy rising within its borders to wage a different kind of war against our hard fought freedom.

    To be precise, today’s dangers emanate from our nation’s boardrooms, where officers and executives have authorized an era of reckless abandon in the form of share buybacks. In the event the word ‘hyperbolic’ just came to mind, the ramifications of a lost generation of investment in Corporate America should not be lightly dismissed. This trend, above all others, has weakened the foundation of U.S. long term economic growth.

    The real question is whether those who have facilitated the malfeasance will be held accountable. Before the launch of the second iteration of quantitative easing (QE2) that the Fed voted to implement on November 3, 2010, Richard Fisher, to whom yours truly once answered, raised serious concerns. An October 7, 2010 speech before the Economic Club of Minneapolis was the venue.

    The contextual backdrop is key: Just weeks before at Jackson Hole, Ben Bernanke had unleashed the mother of all stock market rallies by hinting that QE2 was indeed coming down the FOMC pipeline. The hawks were understandably hopping mad as the debate on the inside was anything but settled. Fisher indicated as much, albeit with notoriously diplomatic panache:

    “In my darkest moments I have begun to wonder if the monetary accommodation we have already engineered might even be working in the wrong places. Far too many of the large corporations I survey that are committing to fixed investment report that the most effective way to deploy cheap money raised in the current bond markets or in the form of loans from banks, beyond buying in stock or expanding dividends, is to invest it abroad where taxes are lower and governments are more eager to please.”

    Six years on, corporate leverage is hovering near a 12-year high and domestic capital expenditures have plunged. In the interim, reams of commentary have been devoted to share buybacks and with good reason. Companies reducing their share count have, at least in recent years, been where the hottest action is, courtyard-seat level action.

    But now, it looks as if the trend is finally cresting. A fresh report by TrimTabs Investment Research found that companies have announced 35 percent less in buybacks through May 19th compared with the same period last year. And while $261.5 billion is still respectable (for the purpose of placating shareholders), it is nevertheless a steep decline from 2015’s $399.4 billion. Even this tempered number is deceiving – only half the number of firms have announced buybacks vs last year.

    Have U.S. executives and their Boards of Directors finally found religion?

    We can only hope. The devastation wrought by the multi-trillion-dollar buyback frenzy is what many of us learned in Econ 101 as the ‘opportunity cost,’ or the value of what’s been foregone. As yet, the value of lost investment opportunities remains a huge unknown.

    In the event doing right by future generations does not suffice, executives might be motivated to renounce their errant ways because shareholders appear to have stopped rewarding buybacks. According to Marketwatch, an exchange traded fund that affords investors access to the most aggressive companies in the buyback arena is off 0.8 percent for the year and down 9.8 percent over the last 12 months.

    The hope is that Corporate America is at the precipice of an investment binge that sparks economic activity that richly rewards those with patience over those with the burning need for instant gratification. The risk? That central bankers whisper sweet nothings the likes of which no Board or CFO can resist. Mario Draghi may already have done so.

    In announcing its latest iteration of QE, the European Central Bank (ECB) added investment grade corporate bonds to the list of eligible securities that can satisfy its purchase commitment. Critically, U.S. multinationals with European operations are included among qualifying issuers. As Evergreen Gavekal’s David Hay recently pointed out, McDonald’s has jumped right into the pool, issuing five-year Euro-denominated paper at an interest rate of a barely discernible 0.45 percent.

    Hay ventures further that the ECB’s program will have the welcome effect of mitigating the widening of the yield differential, or spread, between Treasurys and similar maturity U.S. corporate bonds the next time markets seize up. The firm’s chief investment officer takes one last step over the intellectual Rubicon with the following hypothesis, “The Fed might want to imitate the ECB but may be restricted from doing so by its charter,” Hay posits, adding that, “We wouldn’t discount the possibility it will try to amend, or get around, any prohibitions, however.”

    Talk about sweet nothings on steroids. But could it really happen in a theoretical launch of (God forbid) QE4?

    For the record, Hay is right. There is no explicit permission in the Federal Reserve Act that authorizes open market corporate bond purchases. Hay is also correct, however, that there could be legal wiggle room. This possibility was corroborated by Cumberland Advisors’ in-house central banking guru Bob Eisenbeis, who noted that the Fed’s emergency powers provision, when invoked, allows for purchases of almost any security, especially those that are not expressly disallowed in the Act’s language.

    As for the prospect that politicians would put their foot down and insist that the Fed stand pat and not cross the line? What are the odds of that happening if the economic backdrop is dire enough for the subject of QE4 and open market corporate bond purchases to be matters of public debate?

    Given markets’ maniacal machinations of late, the degree to which the economic data remain mixed, and the growing vocal consensus among Fed officials that June is a ‘go’ for a rate hike, it’s a safe bet that the details of QE4 will not be a focal point of the upcoming FOMC meeting.

    When the time does come, and it’s sure to come before rates are normalized, Corporate America will hopefully be capable of resisting the temptation to play along. To bolster their resolve: Required reading on all CEO, CFO and Board officer bedside tables should be last November’s missive by Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Michael Hartnett.

    In it, the firm’s Chief Investment Strategist paraphrases Winston Churchill and how the great statesman would have described the risk of what Hartnett cleverly warns could be, ‘Quantitative Failure,’:

    “Never in the field of monetary policy was so much gained by so few at the expense of so many.”

    May those words be ones Janet Yellen lives by.

    Hartnett then goes on to encapsulate the one statistic that should haunt the current generation of central bankers more than any other: For every one job created in the United States in the last decade, $296,000 has been spent on share buybacks.

    Recall that the fair Chair is a labor market economist above any other field. Surely she will be able to see the damage past QE has wrought and forgo the facilitation of further bad behavior. Should she ignore the potential for further QE-financed share buybacks to exact more untold economic damage, it would be akin to intentionally corrupting Corporate America.

    In the words that have mistakenly been attributed to Abraham Lincoln, arguably with sound reasoning: “Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power.”

    Since the turn of this century, debt-financed share buybacks have severely tested the character of those charged with growing publically-traded U.S. firms. The time, though, has come for these wayward companies’ banker and enabler, the Fed, to hold the line, no matter how difficult the next inevitable test of their character may prove to be. It’s time for the Fed to defend the entire Union and end a civil war that pits a chosen few against the economic freedom of the many.

  • Hillary Accuses State Department Report Of Having An "Anti-Clinton Bias"

    Today’s long awaited blockbuster report released by the State Department Inspector General, which found that Hillary Clinton broke government rules by using a private email server without approval, and that among many other things Clinton would not have been allowed to use the server in her home had she asked the department officials in charge of information security, made the day of all of Hillary’s critics as it confirmed most of their accusations, while at the same time justified Hillary’s worst fears: apparently epic sloppiness “did make a difference after all” especially since it confirmed she had lied, again.

    The report explicitly contradicted Clinton’s repeated assertion that her server was allowed and that no permission was needed.

    OIG found no evidence that the Secretary requested or obtained guidance or approval to conduct official business via a personal email account on her private server,” the report said, adding that Clinton should have discussed the arrangement with the department’s security and technology officials. Officials told investigators that they “did not – and would not – approve her exclusive reliance on a personal email account to conduct Department business.” The reason, those officials said, is because it breached department rules and presented “security risks.”

    The palpable lack of coherent response to this sudden revelation confirmed just how jarred by today’s events the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate was.

    As we first reported earlier today, the Clinton camp’s initial reaction was to use a kindergarten excuse: former secretaries of state were also doing it, or in the words of Hillary’s press secretary Brian Fallon, “the Inspector General documents just how consistent her email practices were with those of other Secretaries and senior officials at the State Department who also used personal email.”

    In other words, Hillary was abusing Federal regulations and failed to maintain proper record-keeping practices, but others were doing it, so please look the other say. Which incidentally, was also a lie: Fallon did not address the report’s criticism of Clinton’s use of a private server, something no other secretary of state has done.

    This “explanation” only made the hole Hillary now finds herself in even deeper.

    So what did Hillary do next?

    Just a few hours later, Brian Fallon appeared on CNN’s “The Situation Room” and called into question the timing of the State Department investigation into Clinton’s use of a private email server.  Fallon referred to the “appropriateness” of the investigation, parallel to the Justice Department’s investigation into the same issue, as “an open question” even if both Fallon and Hillary were aware of the two investigations for over a year.

    In other words, another conspiracy theory… the same kind of conspiracy theory that CNN want postal on Donald Trump for just 24 hours earlier when he dared to hint that something was “fishy” about the Vince Foster death. Oddly, there were no comparable accusations this time.

    Where thing got really unhinged, however, is when Fallon tried to defend Clinton’s decision not to meet with the inspector
    general
    for the investigation by arguing that Clinton and her staff
    decided to “prioritize the Justice Department review.”

    When repeatedly asked by CNN’s Wolf Blitzer why Clinton didn’t have time to do both, Fallon noted both the handful of inquiries Clinton has responded to. But the punchline was that this too was another vast conspiracy – he stated “reports” from inside the office claiming that the investigation had an “anti-Clinton bias.”

    All Bush’s fault?

    Blitzer responded by asking Fallon, a former Justice Department spokesman, if he was leveling those accusations at State, but he said that he was not… even though quite clearly he did, in effect redoing what Trump did yesterday by mentioning the “Vince Foster story” and saying he would not talk about, when he too clearly did. This too was something that CNN’s Jonathan Tapper took umbrage with just 24 hours earlier.

    None such treatment for Mr. Fallon or Ms. Clinton.

    But what would lend at least some credibility to Hillary’s own de novo conspiracy theory is if the Inspector General was some hardened republican clearly out to get here. Here’s the problem: current Secretary of State Kerry asked Steve Linick, the State Department inspector general, to investigate after Clinton’s email arrangement came to light last year. President Barack Obama appointed Linick to the role in 2013.

    In other words, it was all… Obama’s fault.

    Then again maybe Hillary is right, and it is yet another vast conspiracy, a vast left-wing conspiracy that is. Because if Hillary is indeed right, that would mean that none other than… Obama wants to take her down?

  • Former McDonalds CEO Crushes The Minimum Wage Lie: "It's Cheaper To Buy A Robot Than Hire At $15/Hour"

    While this should come as no surprise to any rational non-establishment-teet-suckling economist (and certainly not to our readers), former McDonalds’ CEO Ed Rensi continued his crusade against the naive “solution” to poor living standards that has been peddled by a clueless administration in the form of a higher federal minimum wage, and after he patiently explained one month ago that “the $15 minimum wage demand, which translates to $30,000 a year for a full-time employee, is built upon a fundamental misunderstanding of a restaurant business just do the math” Rensi found that nobody has still done the math.

    Which is perhaps why the ex-CEO reappeared on Fox Business yesterday to explain to Maria Bartiromo that as fast-food workers across the country vie for $15 per hour wages, many business owners have already begun to take humans out of the picture, McDonalds most certainly included.

    As Rensi admitted, “I was at the National Restaurant Show yesterday and if you look at the robotic devices that are coming into the restaurant industry – it’s cheaper to buy a $35,000 robotic arm than it is to hire an employee who’s inefficient making $15 an hour bagging French fries – it’s nonsense and it’s very destructive and it’s inflationary and it’s going to cause a job loss across this country like you’re not going to believe.”

    “It’s not just going to be in the fast food business. Franchising is the best business model in the United States. It’s dependent on people that have low job skills that have to grow. Well if you can’t get people a reasonable wage, you’re going to get machines to do the work. It’s just common sense. It’s going to happen whether you like it or not. And the more you push this it’s going to happen faster,” the former McDonalds Chief Executive added.

    Rensi also said that we should do away with the federal minimum wage and leave it up to the states, which is quite logical. It’s also why it will never happen.

    “I think we ought to have a multi-faceted wage program in this country. If you’re a high school kid, you ought to have a student wage. If you’re an entry level worker you ought to have a separate wage. The states ought to manage this because they know more [about] what’s going on the ground than anybody in Washington D.C.” Spot on.

    As a reminder, this is how Rensi concluded his tirade against the minimum wage last month: “I suspect that the labor organizers behind this campaign for a $15 minimum wage are less interested in helping employees, and more interested in helping themselves to dues money from their paycheck. They’re unlikely to succeed in their goal of organizing the employees of McDonald’s franchisees, but they may well succeed in passing $15 into law in other sympathetic locales.

    And that’s the whole truth. You’ll see their legacy every time you visit the Golden Arches, where “would you like fries with that” will soon be an ubiquitous button on a computer screen telling a robotic arm in the kitchen what to prepare, all at a wage of $0.00/hour.

    Watch the latest video at video.foxbusiness.com

  • "Someday We'll Be Microchipping All Of Our Children"

    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    Would you allow microchips to be surgically implanted in your children if that would keep them safer?  This is already being done to pets on a widespread basis, and a shocking local NBC News report is promoting the idea that if it is good for our pets, then we should be doing it to our children as well.  As you will see below, the report even puts a guilt trip on parents by asking them this question: “How far would you go to keep your children secure?” 

    Of course most parents very much want to keep their children safe, and a microchip would enable authorities to track them down if they were lost or stolen.  But is this really a good idea?  And where is all of this technology eventually leading?  If you have not seen this very disturbing local NBC News report yet, you can view it right here

     

    In the video, the reporter says that our children could be implanted with microchips “the size of a grain of rice” and that there would be “little to no health risks” involved.

    And near the end of the report, she insists that “we could see those microchips in everyone” eventually.

    Wow.

    I am speechless.

    The report also quoted an electronics expert who claimed that testing of these microchips “is being done right now”

    The piece flips back to pushing the idea when it quotes electronics expert Stuart Lipoff, who asserts that microchipping children is safe and inevitable.

     

    “People should be aware that testing is being done right now. The military is not only testing this out, but already utilizes its properties. It’s not a matter of if it will happen, but when,” states Lipoff.

    Of course if widespread microchipping of the population does start happening, at first it will likely be purely voluntary.  But once enough of the population starts adopting the idea, it will be really easy for the government to make it mandatory.

    Just imagine a world where physical cash was a thing of the past and you could not buy, sell, get a job or open a bank account without your government-issued microchip identification.

    Will you allow yourself and your family to be chipped when that day arrives?

    If not, how will you eat?

    How will you survive?

    What will you do when your children come crying to you for food?

    I am certainly not saying that you should allow yourself to be chipped.  I know that nobody is ever chipping me.  But what I am saying is that people are going to be faced with some absolutely heart-breaking choices.

  • Hillary In Trouble: State Department Says Clinton Did Not Comply With Record Policies: Full Report

    In a surprising reversal, what many thought was impossible, namely the State Department cracking down on its former head and Democratic presidential frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, seems all too possible following news that the State Department Inspector General audit has faulted Hillary Clinton, other secretaries of state for poorly managing electronic communications.

    • CLINTON’S FAILURE TO SURRENDER ALL EMAILS DEALING WITH DEPARTMENT BUSINESS BEFORE LEAVING GOVERNMENT VIOLATED POLICY -INSPECTOR GENERAL

    As WaPo summarizes, the IG found that Clinton’s use of private email for public business was “not an appropriate method” of preserving documents and that her practices failed to comply with department policies meant to ensure that federal record laws are followed.

    The report says Clinton should have printed and saved her emails during her four years in office or surrendered her work-related correspondence immediately upon stepping down in February 2013. Instead, Clinton provided those records in December 2014, nearly two years after leaving office.

    The report found that a top Clinton aide was warned in 2010 that the system may not properly preserve records but dismissed those worries, indicating that the system passed legal muster. But the inspector general said it could not show evidence of a review by legal counsel.

     

    As Politico adds, the State Department inspector general concluded that Hillary Clinton did not comply with the agency’s policies on records, according to a report released to lawmakers on Wednesday that also revealed that Clinton and her top aides chose not to cooperate with the review.

    The agency on Wednesday released the long-awaited report to Capitol Hill, copy of which was obtained by POLITICO, providing just the latest turn in the headache-inducing saga that has dogged Clinton’s campaign.

    While the report concludes that the agency suffers from “longstanding, systemic weaknesses” with records that “go well beyond the tenure of any one Secretary of State,” it specifically dings Clinton for her exclusive use of private email.

    “Therefore, Secretary Clinton should have preserved any Federal records she created and received on her personal account by printing and filing those records with the related files in the Office of the Secretary,” the report states. “At a minimum, Secretary Clinton should have surrendered all emails dealing with Department business before leaving government service and, because she did not do so, she did not comply with the Department’s policies that were implemented in accordance with the Federal Records Act.”

    The report states that its findings are based on interviews with current Secretary of State John Kerry and his predecessors – Madeleine Albright, Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice, but that Clinton and her deputies declined the IG’s requests for interviews.

    Cheryl Mills, Jake Sullivan, and Huma Abedin are among those who did not cooperate with the investigation.

    The IG report is just one of many fronts that still exist in the email scandal. Clinton also faces an ongoing FBI investigation into the setup of the private server that she used for official State Department business during her four years in the Obama administration, and various Freedom of Information Act lawsuits are working their way through the courts.

    Needless to say, the report will only provide more ammunition for Donald Trump, who has already been seizing on the persistent controversy, which first emerged in March of last year, as he tries to further undermine the trustworthiness of “Crooked Hillary,” as he calls her.

    Clinton and her allies contend she did nothing illegal by choosing to set up a private email server and account at her Chappaqua, New York, home, and that she was not trying to evade public records requests. Instead, Clinton has said she was motivated by the desire for convenience, though she has conceded it was not the best choice.

    One again wonders if there is a quiet press behind the scenes to push for Bernie Sanders, or even Joe Biden at the Democrat convention if enough dirty laundry piles up against Hillary, who it is no secret has had a rocky relationship with many of the current Democrat power elite.

    A quick observation from Glenn Greenwald finds a quick lie within the state department:

     

    Full OIG report below (link)

    The full report is below:

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Today’s News 25th May 2016

  • The Global Monetary System Has Devalued 47% Over The Last 10 Years

    Authored by Paul Brodsky via Macro-Allocation.com,

    We have argued the inevitability of Fed-administered hyperinflation, prompted by a global slowdown and its negative impact on the ability to service and repay systemic debt. One of the most politically expedient avenues policy makers could take would be to inflate the debt away in real terms through coordinated currency devaluations against gold, the only monetize-able asset on most central bank balance sheets. To do so they would create new base money with which to purchase gold at pre-arranged fixed exchange prices, which would raise the general price levels in their currencies and across the world to levels that diminish the relative burden of debt repayment (while not sacrificing debt covenants).

    The odds of this occurring seem to have risen, judging by the gold prices. Table 1 looks at gold performance over one, five and ten years in terms of the fifteen currencies representing the fifteen largest economies (about 77% of global GDP). The bold figures at the bottom show gold’s performance weighted for GDP.

    Gold is mostly quoted in US dollars, but it is also implicitly valued at each point in time in all currencies (as is everything that may be bought or sold across the world), simply by applying cross exchange rates to its USD price. Table 1 shows the experience of gold holders around the world has been quite different. A Russian would have had the currency he receives his wages in devalued to gold by almost 370% over the last ten years. Or, he could have generated a 370% gain by converting his ruble savings into gold. Anyone else in the world would also show a 370% gain by having owned gold and having been short the ruble.

    Meanwhile, gold in dollar terms, as it is quoted for capital market participants given London and US exchange dominance over fungible gold trading, is up far less – about 94%. (This performance also represents gold performance for currencies pegged to the dollar, like the Saudi Arabian riyal.) Gold in Chinese yuan terms and Swiss franc terms are only about 57% higher over the last ten years.

    The wide gap in gold’s performance is due to sharp differences in ongoing currency exchange rates. Gold is a currency hedge – the stable fulcrum around which fiat currencies fluctuate. Gold is not consumed and has no internal rate of return. Changing market quotes for gold – whether for spot gold, gold futures or gold bullion – merely represent currency exchange rates. The performance of gold in Table 1 is not the performance of gold at all, but rather the performance of the currencies in which it is quoted.

    The last line of Table 1 shows gold price changes adjusted for the relative importance of currencies, as determined by GDP. It implies that the global monetary system has been devalued against gold by 46.88% over the last ten years (1/1.8824), which was in line with the MSCI ACWI World equity index over this time.) One who produced a good or service anywhere in the world over the last ten years would have been wise to save the fruit of his labor in gold terms.

    Central Banks

    If we were a central banker overseeing the fiat global monetary regime we would want to treat gold as a market-based indicator of inflation, not as a potential competitor to the currencies we established and promote. We would build econometric models in which we would define the relationships linking credit growth to demand growth, demand growth to production growth, and production growth to inflation and employment. We would establish economic mandates, like stable prices and full employment, and then we would model conditional scenarios and reaction functions in which to proceed.

    We would be very transparent in our communications policies, sharing assumptions and data from our models and our economic projections based on them. It would appear to all the world that we would be applying thoughtful, best efforts science to the vagaries of irrational human animal spirits – the irrationality of mass consumption and investment or the irrationality of short term decision making over what would be more sustainable. We would blanket our science in pedantic academic rhetoric and debate nuance with others interested in the same discipline.

    We would not question the moral nature of our pursuits because science is amoral. Nor would we question whether our models and actions might be unduly harmful because our position is clearly defined and its roadmap conditional and usually marked with precedent. We would not question our reason for being because we would be the very foundation upon which economies sit. We would not separate economics from finance because, well, because it would not reconcile with everything else we do.

    When asked about gold, we would testify before our congresses and parliaments that we hold it on our balance sheets merely as tradition, and that its relevance in our scientifically managed domestic economies and coordinated, financial-centric global economies is de minimus. Gold would be an afterthought to us, and most serious economists, politicians, policy makers and market observers.

    Those clinging to the relevancy of the barbarous relic would be generally perceived as sour pessimists, economic losers unwilling to change with the times, malcontents clinging to regressive social mores, Chicken Littles seeking to undermine centrist politics and policy in the face of contrary economic indicators, druids unwilling or incapable of using leveraged financial assets to save, provincial patriots unwilling to strive to live in a peaceful and prosperous international community.

    Ironically, it is this last point that holds the key to gold’s relevancy in modern times. The fact that gold remains on the balance sheets of central banks and is being aggressively bought by them suggests it is gaining, not losing, relevancy as a monetary asset. The fact that it can be used as the fulcrum against which to devalue currencies gives it purpose. The fact that allocations to gold and gold-related assets remains less than 3% of investment portfolios makes it a superior risk-adjusted portfolio allocation.

     

    Expectations

    Graph 1, shows the relationship of US real yields and the USD gold price. Real (inflation adjusted) yields and gold have been tightly correlated. Non-income producing gold ebbs and flows inversely with yields available on financial assets. This is understandable, but ask yourself this: what happens now that global sovereign interest rates must go negative to give the impression that credit is becoming easier?

    The sound reasoning behind the tight correlation should break down if/when no amount of central bank stimulus, other than QE, produces inflation, and that inflation is limited to asset inflation. Then, the system would break and global monetary authorities would have to re-work it.

    Our view is that there will not be a switch to a fully-reserved banking system or even a reversion to a fixed exchange rate; however, there will be a significant increase in global currency devaluations against gold, and that it will be coordinated by monetary authorities.

  • Paul Craig Roberts: "Americans Are A Conquered People"

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    As readers know, I have seen some optimism in voters support for Trump and Sanders as neither are members of the corrupt Republican and Democratic political establishments. Members of both political establishments enrich themselves by betraying the American people and serving only the interest of the One Percent. The American people are being driven into the ground purely for the sake of more mega-billions for a handful of super-rich people.

    Neither political party is capable of doing anything whatsoever about it, and neither will.

    The optimism that I see is that the public’s support of outsiders is an indication that the insouciant public is waking up. But Americans will have to do more than wake up, as they cannot rescue themselves via the voting booth. In my opinion, the American people will remain serfs until they wake up to Revolution.

    Today Americans exist as a conquered people. They have lost the Bill of Rights, the amendments to the Constitution that protect their liberty. Anyone, other than the One Percent and their political and legal servants, can be picked up without charges and detained indefinitely as during the Dark Ages, when government was unaccountable and no one had any rights. Only those with power were safe. In America today anyone not politically protected can be declared “associated with terrorism” and taken out by a Hellfire missile from a drone on the basis of a list of human targets drawn up by the president’s advisers. Due process, guaranteed by the US Constitution, no longer exists in the United States of America. Neither does the constitutional prohibition against the government spying on citizens without just cause and a court warrant. The First Amendment itself, whose importance was emphasized by our Founding Fathers by making it the First Amendment, is no longer protected by the corrupt Supreme Court. The Nine who comprise the Supreme Court, like the rest of the bought-and-paid-for-government, serve only the One Percent. Truth-tellers have become “an enemy of the state.” Whistleblowers are imprisoned despite their legal protection in US law.

    The United States government has unaccountable power. Its power is not accountable to US statutory law, to international law, to the Congress, to the judiciary, to the American people, or to moral conscience. In the 21st century the war criminal US government has murdered, maimed, and dislocated millions of people based on lies and propaganda. Washington has destroyed seven countries in whole or part in order to enrich the American elite and comply with the neoconservative drive for US world hegemony.

    Americans live in a propaganda-fabricated world in which a brutal police state is cloaked in nice words like “freedom and democracy.” “Freedom and democracy” is what Washington’s war machine brings with sanctions, bombs, no-fly zones, troops, and drones to countries that dare to cling to their independence from Washington’s hegemony.

    Only two countries armed with strong military capability and nuclear weapons—Russia and China—stand between Washington and Washington’s goal of hegemony over the entire world.

    If Russia or China falter, the evil ensconced in Washington will rule the world. America will be the Anti-Christ. The predictions of the Christian Evangelicals preaching “end times” will take on new meaning.

    Russia is vulnerable to becoming a vassal state of Washington. Despite a legion of betrayals by Washington, the Russian government has just proposed a joint US/Russia cooperation against terrorists.

    One wonders if the Russian government will ever learn from experience. Has Washington cooperated with the agreement concerning Ukraine? Of course not. Has Washington cooperated in the investigation of MH-17? Of course not. Has Washington ceased its propaganda about a Russian invasion of Crimera and Ukraine? Of course not. Has Washington kept any agreement previous US governments made with Russia? Of course not.

    So why does the Russian government think Washington would keep any agreement about a joint effort against terrorism?

    The Russian government and the Russian people are so unaware of the danger that they face from Washington that they let foreigners control 20 percent of their media! Is Russia unaware that Washington has Russia slated for vassalage or destruction?

    China is even more absurd. According to the Chinese government itself, China has 7,000 foreign-financed NGOs operating in China! Foreign financed NGOs are what Washington used to destabilize Ukraine and overthrow the elected government.

    What does the Chinese government think these NGOs are doing other than destabilizing China?

    Both Russia and China are infected with Western worship that creates a vulnerability that Washington can exploit. Delusions can result in inadequate response to threat.

    All of Europe, both western, eastern and southern, the British Pacific such as Australia and New Zealand, Japan and other parts of Asia are vassal states of Washington’s Empire. None of these allegedly “sovereign” countries have an independent voice or an independent foreign or economic policy. All of Latin America is subject to Washington’s control. No reformist government in Latin America has ever survived Washington’s disapproval of putting the interests of the domestic populations ahead of American corporate and financial profits. Already this year Washington has overthrown the female presidents of Argentina and Brazil. Washington is currently in the process of overthrowing the government in Venezuela, with Ecuador and Bolivia waiting in the wings. In 2009 Killary Clinton and Obama overthrew the government of Honduras, an old Washington habit.

    As Washington pays the UN’s bills, the UN is compliant. No hand is ever raised against Washington. So why does anyone on the face of the earth think that an American election can change anything or mean anything?

    We know that Killary is a liar, a crook, an agent for the One Percent, and a warmonger. Let’s now look at Trump.

    Are there grounds for optimism about Trump? In the West “news reporting” is propaganda, so it is difficult to know. Moreover, we do know that, at least initially, the response of the Republican Establishment to Trump is to demonize him, so we do not know the veracity of the news reports about Trump.

    Without belaboring the issue, two news reports struck me. One is the Washington Post report that the Zionist multi-billionaire US casino owner Sheldon Adelson has endorsed Donald Trump for President.

    Other reports say that Adelson has mentioned as much as $100 million as his political campaign contribution to Trump.

    Anyone who gives a political campaign $100 million dollars expect something in exchange, and the recipient is obligated to provide whatever is desired. So are we witnessing the purchase of Donald Trump? The initial Republican response to Trump, encouraged by the crazed neoconservatives, was to abandon the Republican candidate and to vote for Killary.

    Is Adelson’s endorsement a signal that Trump can be bought and brought into the establishment?

    Additional evidence that Trump has sold out his naive supporters is his latest statement that Wall Street should be deregulated. 

    It is extraordinary that Trump’s advisers have not told him that Wall Street was deregulated back in the 20th century during the Clinton regime. The repeal of Glass-Steagall deregulated Wall Street. One source of the 2008 financial crisis is the deregulated derivative market. When Brooksley Born attempted to fulfill the responsibility of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and regulate over-the-counter derivatives, she was blocked by the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury, the SEC, and the US Congress.

    Nothing has been done to correct the massive mistake of financial deregulation. The Dodd-Frank legislation did not correct the massive financial concentration that produced banks too big to fail, and the legislation did not stop Wall Street’s reckless casino gambling with the US economy. Yet Trump says he will dismantle even the weak Dodd-Frank restrictions.

    The American print and TV media are so corrupt that these reports could be false stories, the purpose of which is to demoralize Trump’s supporters. On the other hand, should we be surprised if a billionaire aligns with the One Percent?

    Elections are an unlikely means of restoring government that is accountable to the people rather than to the One Percent. Even if Trump is legitimate, he does not have the experience in foreign and economic affairs to know who to appoint to his government in order to implement change. Moreover, even if he knew, unless Trump candidates also replace the Senate, Trump could not get his choices confirmed by a Senate accountable only to the One Percent.

    Americans are a conquered people. We see this in the appeal from RootsAction to the rest of the world to come to the aid of the American people. Unable to stop the lawlessness of their own “democratic” government, Americans plea for help from abroad. 

    The plea from RootsAction indicates that committed activists now acknowledge that change in America cannot be produced by elections or be achieved internally through peaceful means.

  • Currency War Resumes – China Devalues Yuan To 5-Year Lows

    After a brief hiatus from the ongoing currency wars, China fired another salvo at The Fed tonight by devaluing the Yuan fix to 6.5693 – its weakest against the USD since March 2011. After eight days higher in a row for The USD Index, it seems PBOC has turned its currency liberalization plan off, stabilizing the broad Renminbi basket (which has been steadily devalued) and turning its attention to devaluing against the USD. Having unleashed turmoil in August (pre-Sept FOMC) and January (post Dec rate-hike), it appears the rising rate-hike probabilities jawboned by The Fed are decidedly disagreeable to "authoritative persons" in China.

     

    The Yuan Fix was driven down to March 2011 lows…

    Front-running?

    “It could be because the authorities want to alleviate some of the depreciation pressure before the Fed interest rate decision in June," said Christy Tan, head of markets strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Hong Kong. "If there are signs of panic dollar buying, the PBOC will step in."

    As it seems maintaining some 'stability' against the USD has lost its appeal as the USD surges once again…

     

    What the chart above shows is that the Chinese currency (red) has been devaluing in an orderly and quiet manner for much of the year while maintaining the appearance of stability against the USD (blue). That appears to have changed now and the last time turmoil started to ripple through the CNHUSD markets – it didn't stop until Tom Cook lied to Jim Cramer and The PPT rescued the world.

    The irony of the apparent stability in the broad-based Renminbi basket (while devaluing against the USD) is that it comes after a desperate China has reportedly given up on its liberalization goals. As The Wall Street Journal notes,

    Behind closed doors in March, some of China’s most prominent economists and bankers bluntly asked the People’s Bank of China to stop fighting the financial markets and let the value of the nation’s currency fall.

     

    They got nowhere. “The primary task is to maintain stability,” said one central-bank official, according to previously undisclosed minutes of the meeting reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

     

    The meeting left little doubt China’s top leaders have lost interest in a major policy shift announced in a surprise move just nine months ago. In August 2015, the PBOC said it would make the yuan’s value more market-based, an important step in liberalizing the world’s second-largest economy.

    In reality, though, the yuan’s daily exchange rate is now back under tight government control, according to meeting minutes that detail private deliberations and interviews with Chinese officials and advisers who spoke with The Wall Street Journal about the country’s currency policy.

    On Jan. 4, the central bank behind closed doors ditched the market-based mechanism, according to people close to the PBOC. The central bank hasn’t announced the reversal, but officials have essentially returned to the old way of adjusting the yuan’s daily value higher or lower based on whatever suits Beijing best.

    The flip-flop is a sign of policy makers’ deepening wariness about how much money is fleeing China, a problem driven by its slowing economy. For now, at least, officials believe the benefits of freeing the yuan are outnumbered by the number of threats… though we note that a 3% depreciation of the yuan could add $25.6 billion to Chinese companies’ annual interest payments on dollar debts, according to estimates by analysts at BNP Paribas.

    So the question is – will the Yuan turmoil ripple through markets enough to spook The Fed once more and dissolve what little credibility they have left or will Janet and her henchmen stand up to the foreign forces, hike rates to spit their own face, and deal with the aftermath through some more Citadel-driven VIXtermination? With VIX futures near record shorts and S&P futures at their longest in almost 2 years – there's not much easy leveraged money to squeeze there – like there was in August.

  • Here's The Full List Of Organizations That Paid Hillary Clinton From 2013-2015

    Submitted by Michael Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    Screen Shot 2016-05-23 at 3.35.50 PM

    In its article titled, How Corporate America Bought Hillary Clinton for $21M, The New York Post details the companies and organizations that paid Hillary in speaking fees from 2013-2015.

    The total comes to $21.7 million, which is a remarkable sum for one of the least charismatic and unimaginative orators the world has ever known.

    The New York Post reports:

    Screen Shot 2016-05-23 at 3.26.08 PM

    Screen Shot 2016-05-23 at 3.19.03 PM
    Screen Shot 2016-05-23 at 3.27.49 PM
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    So are you ready?

    Screen Shot 2016-05-09 at 8.32.36 AM

  • All You Need To Know About The China Boom-Bust Cycle In One Chart

    If anyone is still confused about the not so subtle dynamics between markets and monetary policy in China, or the country’s bipolar, and ever more frequent boom and bust cycles, you won’t be after seeing this chart from Socgen.

    If still unclear, here is SocGen’s explanation:

    Our economists expect China’s structural deceleration to continue over the coming years and it should thus remain a major source of uncertainty for commodity prices and equity markets alike. The recent recovery in Q1 16 was based on a sharp rebound in the property sector and significant credit injections. 

     

    This stimulus can only be temporary, as it increases debt in the system, keeps zombie companies alive, and defers reforms, at the cost of higher risk for financial stability in the future. Policymakers are aware of the risks coming from an overheating housing market and excessive debt build-up. As long as the recovery in the property keeps going, the economy could perform more or less in line with market expectations.

     

    But, as Chinese authorities will eventually reduce credit easing, we expect the economy to return on its deceleration path in the coming quarters. The economy is thus likely to continue suffering from a series of mini boom-and-bust-cycles that will create repeated periods of volatility.

    We just had a 3 months period of stability. Following the latest Yuan fixing released moments ago, which at 6.5693 was the lowest since March 2011, it sounds like we are about to have some volatility.

  • What It Takes To Be President Of The American Police State

    Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “The qualifications for president seem to be that one is willing to commit mass murder one minute and hand presidential medals of freedom to other war criminals in the next. One need only apply if one has very loose, flexible, or non-existent morality.”—Author and activist Cindy Sheehan

    Long gone are the days when the path to the White House was open to anyone who met the Constitution’s bare minimum requirements of being a natural born citizen, a resident of the United States for 14 years, and 35 years of age or older.

    Today’s presidential hopefuls must jump through a series of hoops aimed at selecting the candidates best suited to serve the interests of the American police state. Candidates who are anti-war, anti-militarization, anti-Big Money, pro-Constitution, pro-individual freedom and unabashed advocates for the citizenry need not apply.

    The carefully crafted spectacle of the presidential election with its nail-biting primaries, mud-slinging debates, caucuses, super-delegates, popular votes and electoral colleges has become a fool-proof exercise in how to persuade a gullible citizenry into believing that their votes matter.

    Yet no matter how many Americans go to the polls on November 8, “we the people” will not be selecting the nation’s next president.

    While voters might care about where a candidate stands on healthcare, Social Security, abortion and immigration—hot-button issues that are guaranteed to stir up the masses, secure campaign contributions and turn any election into a circus free-for-all—those aren’t the issues that will decide the outcome of this presidential election.

    What decides elections are money and power.

    We’ve been hoodwinked into believing that our votes count, that we live in a democracy, that elections make a difference, that it matters whether we vote Republican or Democrat, and that our elected officials are looking out for our best interests. Truth be told, we live in an oligarchy, and politicians represent only the profit motives of the corporate state, whose leaders know all too well that there is no discernible difference between red and blue politics, because there is only one color that matters in politics—green.

    As much as the Republicans and Democrats like to act as if there’s a huge difference between them and their policies, they are part of the same big, brawling, noisy, semi-incestuous clan. Watch them interact at social events—hugging and kissing and nudging and joking and hobnobbing with each other—and it quickly becomes clear that they are not sworn enemies but partners in crime, united in a common goal, which is to maintain the status quo.

    The powers-that-be will not allow anyone to be elected to the White House who does not answer to them.

    Who are the powers-that-be, you might ask?

    As I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, the powers-that-be are the individuals and corporations who profit from America’s endless wars abroad and make their fortunes many times over by turning America’s homeland into a war zone. They are the agents and employees of the military-industrial complex, the security-industrial complex, and the surveillance-industrial complex. They are the fat cats on Wall Street who view the American citizenry as economic units to be bought, sold and traded on a moment’s notice. They are the monied elite from the defense and technology sectors, Hollywood, and Corporate America who believe their money makes them better suited to decide the nation’s future. They are the foreign nationals to whom America is trillions of dollars in debt.

    One thing is for certain: the powers-that-be are not you and me.

    In this way, the presidential race is just an exaggerated farce of political theater intended to dazzle, distract and divide us, all the while the police state marches steadily forward.

    It’s a straight-forward equation: the candidate who wins the White House will be the one who can do the best job of ensuring that the powers-that-be keep raking in the money and acquiring ever greater powers. In other words, for any viable presidential candidate to get elected today that person must be willing to kill, lie, cheat, steal, be bought and sold and made to dance to the tune of his or her corporate overlords.

    The following are just some of the necessary qualifications for anyone hoping to be appointed president of the American police state. Candidates must:

    Help grow the militaryindustrial complex: Fifty-five years after President Dwight D. Eisenhower warned about the growth of the “military-industrial complex” in his farewell address, the partnership between the government, the military and private corporations has resulted in the permanent militarization of America. From militarized police and the explosive growth of SWAT teams to endless wars abroad, the expansion of private sector contractors, and never-ending blowback from our foreign occupations, we have become a nation permanently at war. As the New York Times pointed out, “the military is the true ‘third rail’ of American politics.” The military-industrial complex understands the value of buying the presidency, and has profited from the incessant warmongering of Obama and his predecessors. If money is any indicator of who the defense industry expects to win this November, thus far, Hillary Clinton is winning the money race, having collected more campaign contributions from employees with the 50 largest military contractors.

     

    Police the rest of the world using U.S. troops: The U.S. military empire’s determination to police the rest of the world has resulted in more than 1.3 million U.S. troops being stationed at roughly 1000 military bases in over 150 countries around the world, including 48,000 in Japan, 37,000 in Germany, 27,000 in South Korea and 9800 in Afghanistan. That doesn’t include the number of private contractors pulling in hefty salaries at taxpayer expense. In Afghanistan, for example, private contractors outnumber U.S. troops three to one. Now comes the news that the U.S. is preparing to send troops to Libya on a long-term mission to fight ISIS.

     

    Sow seeds of discord and foment wars among other nations under the guise of democracy: It’s not enough for the commander-in-chief to lead the United States into endless wars abroad. Any successful presidential candidate also needs to be adept at stirring up strife within other nations under the guise of spreading democracy. The real motive, of course, is creating new markets for the nation’s #1 export: weapons. In this way, the U.S. is constantly arming so-called “allies” with deadly weapons, only to later wage war against these same nations for possessing weapons of mass destruction. It happened in Iraq when the U.S. sold Saddam Hussein weapons to build his war machine. It happened in Syria when the U.S. provided rebel fighters with military equipment and munitions, only to have them seized by ISIS and used against us. Now comes the news that President Obama has agreed to sell weapons to Vietnam, lifting a decades-long embargo against the nation whose civil war claimed the lives of more than 90,000 Americans.

     

    Speak of peace while slaughtering innocent civilians: Barack Obama’s campaign and subsequent presidency illustrates this principle perfectly. The first black American to become president, Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize long before he had done anything to truly deserve it. He has rewarded the Nobel committee’s faith in him by becoming one of the most hawkish war presidents to lead the nation, overseeing a targeted-killing drone campaign that has resulted in thousands of civilian casualties and deaths. Ironically, while Obama has made no significant effort to de-escalate government-inflicted violence or de-weaponize militarized police, he has gone to great lengths to denounce and derail private gun ownership by American citizens.

     

    Prioritize surveillance in the name of security over privacy: Since 9/11, the Surveillance State has undergone a dramatic boom, thanks largely to the passage of the USA Patriot Act and so-called “secret” interpretations of the mammoth law allowing the NSA and other government agencies to spy on Americans’ electronic communications. What began as a government-driven program under George W. Bush has grown under Obama into a mass surveillance private sector that makes its money by spying on American citizens. As Fortune reports, “In response to security concerns after 9/11, Americans witnessed the growth of a massive domestic security apparatus, fueled by federal largesse.” That profit-incentive has opened up a multi-billion dollar video surveillance industry that is blanketing the country with surveillance cameras—both governmental and private—which can be accessed by law enforcement at a moment’s notice.

     

    Promote the interests of Corporate America and Big Money over the rights of the citizenry: Almost every major government program hailed as benefiting Americans—affordable healthcare, the war on terror, airport security, police-worn body cameras—has proven to be a Trojan Horse aimed at enriching Corporate America while leaving Americans poorer, less secure and less free. For instance, the so-called “affordable” health care mandated by Congress has become yet another costly line item in already strained household budgets for millions of Americans.

     

    Expand the powers of the imperial president while repeatedly undermining the rule of law: George W. Bush assumed near-absolute power soon after the September 11, 2001, attacks. Unfettered by Congress or the Constitution, Bush led the “war on terror” abroad and championed both the USA Patriot Act and Homeland Security Department domestically. This, of course, led to the Bush Administration’s demand that presidential wartime powers permit the President to assume complete control over any and all aspects of an international war on terrorism. Such control included establishing military tribunals and eliminating basic rights long recognized under American law.

     

    When Barack Obama ascended to the presidency in 2008, there was a sense, at least among those who voted for him, that the country might change for the better. Those who watched in awe as President Bush chipped away at our civil liberties over the course of his two terms as president thought that perhaps the young, charismatic Senator from Illinois would reverse course and put an end to some of the Bush administration’s worst transgressions—the indefinite detention of suspected terrorists, the torture, the black site prisons, and the never-ending wars that have drained our resources, to name just a few. As we near the end of Obama’s two terms in office, that fantasy has proven to be just that: a fantasy. Indeed, President Obama has not only carried on the Bush legacy, but has taken it to its logical conclusion. Obama has gone beyond Guantanamo Bay, gone beyond spying on Americans’ emails and phone calls, and gone beyond bombing countries without Congressional authorization. As journalist Amy Goodman warned, “the recent excesses of U.S. presidential power are not transient aberrations, but the creation of a frightening new normal, where drone strikes, warrantless surveillance, assassination and indefinite detention are conducted with arrogance and impunity, shielded by secrecy and beyond the reach of law.”

     

    Act as if the work of the presidency is a hardship while enjoying all the perks: The race for the White House is an expensive, grueling horse race: candidates must have at a minimum $200 or $300 million or more just to get to the starting line. The total cost for this year’s election is estimated to exceed $5 billion and could go as high as $10 billion. However, for the winner, life in the White House is an endless series of star-studded dinner parties, lavish vacations and perks the likes of which the average American will never enjoy. The grand prize winner will rake in a $400,000 annual salary (not including $100,000 a year for travel expenses, $19,000 for entertaining, $50,000 for “general” expenses and last but not least, $1,000,000 for “unanticipated” expenses), live rent-free in a deluxe, 6-storey, 55,000 square foot mansion that comes complete with its own movie theater and bowling alley, round-the-clock staff, florists, valets and butlers. Upon leaving the White House, presidents are gifted with hefty pensions, paid staff and office space, travel allowances and lifetime medical care. Ex-presidents can also expand upon their largesse by writing books and giving speeches (Bill Clinton was given a $15 million advance for his memoir and routinely makes upwards of $100,000 per speech).

    Clearly, it doesn’t matter where a candidate claims to stand on an issue as long as he or she is prepared to obey the dictates of the architects, movers and shakers, and shareholders of the police state once in office.

    So here we are once again, preparing to embark upon yet another delusional, reassurance ritual of voting in order to sustain the illusion that we have a democratic republic when, in fact, what we have is a dictatorship without tears. Once again, we are left feeling helpless in the face of a well-funded, heavily armed propaganda machine that is busily spinning political webs with which the candidates can lure voters. And once again we are being urged to vote for the lesser of two evils.

    Railing against a political choice that offers no real choice, gonzo journalist Hunter S. Thompson snarled, “How many more of these stinking, double-downer sideshows will we have to go through before we can get ourselves straight enough to put together some kind of national election that will give me and the at least 20 million people I tend to agree with a chance to vote for something, instead of always being faced with that old familiar choice between the lesser of two evils?”

    Remember, the lesser of two evils is still evil.

  • Eurogroup Agrees To Disburse €7.5BN To Greece Which Will Be Used To Repay Creditors

    Once upon a time, markets trembled when Greek bailout implementation headlines were announced, which is what just happened if slightly ahead of our forecast schedule…

    … and this time nobody cares. Well maybe the Greeks do, but by now even they realize that most of the “money” they receive will be used to repay creditors and especially the ECB, and they will see virtually none of it.

    So, for them, or anyone else who cares, here are the key headlines and details as they come in. Few surprises from what had been leaked previously.

    EUROGROUP MEETING ENDS, DEAL ALLOWS LOAN DISBURSEMENT
    EU DIJSSELBLOEM: REACHED FULL STAFF LEVEL AGREEMENT ON GREECE

    * * *

    DIJSSELBLOEM: ESM TO APPROVE E10.3 BLN IN SEVERAL DISBURSEMENT
    DIJSSELBLOEM: INSTITUTIONS TO HAVE FINAL CHECK ON LEGISLATION
    DIJSSELBLOEM: NEED TO MAKE SURE GREECE STAYS ON FISCAL PATH
    DIJSSELBLOEM: AGREED ON METHODOLOGY OF GREECE DEBT SUSTAINBLTY
    DIJSSELBLOEM: ASKED ESM TO LOOK AT MEASURES IN DEBT REPAYMENTS
    DIJSSELBLOEM: DEBT MID-LONG MEASURES INTO EFFECT JULY 2018
    DIJSSELBLOEM: SMP, ANFA PROFITS ALSO PART OF DEBT DEAL
    DIJSSELBLOEM: UNUSED ESM FUNDING COULD BE USED TO SWAP GR DEBT
    DIJSSELBLOEM: AGREED ON MECHANISM FOR DEBT MEASURES IN L-TERM
    DIJSSELBLOEM: IMPORTANT THAT IMF ON BOARD WITH GREECE
    DIJSSELBLOEM: IMF TO RECOMMEND NEW PROGRAMME FOR GREECE BY YR END
    DIJSSELBLOEM: BUT IMF WILL DECIDE ON NEW DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
    DIJSSELBLOEM: DEBT RELIEF WILL BE DELIVERED AT END PROGRAM

    * * *

    MOSCOVICI: GREECE SHOWED POLITICAL RESPONSIBILITY
    MOSCOVICI: ESSENTIAL THAT IMF REMAINS IN GREECE PROGRAM
    MOSCOVICI: GREECE WILL BE ABLE TO REPAY STATE ARREARS NOW

    * * *

    REGLING: LOAN TRANCHES LINKED WITH GR PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION
    REGLING: FIRST GREECE LOAN TRANCHE OF E7.5 BLN IN JUNE
    REGLING: SECOND LOAN TRANCHE TO BE GIVEN IN AUTUMN
    REGLING: GREECE NOW TO IMPLEMENT OUTSTANDING PRIOR ACTIONS

    * * *

    According to Bloomberg, the First set of measures includes:

    • Smoothening the EFSF repayment profile under the current weighted average maturity
    • Use EFSF/ESM diversified funding strategy to reduce interest rate risk without incurring any additional costs for former program countries
    • Waiver of the step-up interest rate margin related to the debt buy-back tranche of the 2nd Greek program for the year 2017
    • “Decision on the smoothening of the EFSF repayment profile and the reduction of interest rate risks should be taken as a matter of priority”

    For the medium term, the Eurogroup expects to implement a possible second set of measures following the successful implementation of the ESM program:

    • Abolish the step-up interest rate margin related to the debt buy-back tranche of the 2nd Greek program as of 2018
    • Use of 2014 SMP profits from the ESM segregated account and the restoration of the transfer of ANFA and SMP profits to Greece (as of budget year 2017) to the ESM segregated account as an ESM internal buffer to reduce future gross financing needs.
    • Liability management – early partial repayment of existing official loans to Greece by utilizing unused resources within the ESM program to reduce interest rate costs and to extend maturities
    • If necessary, some targeted EFSF reprofiling (e.g. extension of the weighted average maturities, re- profiling of the EFSF amortization as well as capping and deferral of interest payments) to the extent needed to keep GFN under the agreed benchmark in order to give comfort to the IMF and without incurring any additional costs for former program countries or to the EFSF

    For the long term, the Eurogroup also agrees on a contingency mechanism on debt which would be activated after the ESM program to ensure debt sustainability in the long run in case a more adverse scenario were to materialize

    • Such mechanism could entail measures such as a further EFSF reprofiling and capping and deferral of interest payments

    Eurogroup mandated finance ministry officials from the currency bloc “to verify in the next few days the full implementation of the outstanding prior actions,” for the conclusion of the Greek bailout review, according to e-mailed statement following meeting of euro area finance ministers in Brussels.

    EWG of finance ministry officials have been mandated to verify “in particular the corrections to the legislation on the opening up of the market for the sale of loans, and on the pension reform, as well as the completion of all prior actions related to the government pending actions in the field of privatization

    Following full implementation of all prior actions and subject to the completion of national procedures, governing bodies of the euro area’s crisis fund ESM will approve EU10.3b disbursement of bailout loans to Greece

    • First sub-tranche of EU7.5b to cover debt servicing needs and to allow a clearance of an initial part of arrears as a means to support the real economy
    • “Subsequent disbursements to be used for arrears clearance and further debt servicing needs will be made after the summer”
    • “Disbursements for arrears clearance will be subject to a positive reporting by the European Institutions on the clearance of net arrears”

    Eurogroup “recalls” Greece’s medium-term primary budget surplus target of 3.5%/GDP as of 2018

    Ministers set benchmark of Greek debt sustainability:

    • Country’s gross debt financing needs, or GFN, “should remain below 15% of GDP during the post program period for the medium term, and below 20% of GDP thereafter”

    * * *

    And again, here is the punchline:

    First sub-tranche of EU7.5b to cover debt servicing needs and to allow a clearance of an initial part of arrears as a means to support the real economy

    In other words, virtually all the €7.5 billion Greece just got as part of its first tranche… will promptly be used to repay its creditors, as has been the case from day one

    * * *

    The short summary: Greece has promised to implement even more Draconian measures (which may or may not happen) in order to get money that was already promised to it, while the Eurogroup disburses just enough cash to cover the immediate funding needs of the creditors with a little left over to pay for government arrears while demanding even more austerity; future tranches may or may not be paid out if Greece complies with its promises (which will not happen) and meanwhile the Eurogroup says it may someday provide debt relief, once Greece ends its bailout program… which will never happen.

  • Political Polarity Shift – "Trigger Happy Hillary" Making Dems The War Party

    Authored by Justin Raimondo via AntiWar.com (h/t Contra Corner blog),

    Americans are rejecting imperialism – on both sides of the political spectrum

    As Bob Dylan put it, “the times they are a changing!” – and that is certainly the case when it comes to the debate over US foreign policy this election season. A recent article in the Boston Globe, summarizing the observations of a group of Brown University students who tracked the foreign policy discourse of the candidates, underscored what is happening on both sides of the partisan divide:

    “As we watched, Republican voters rejected every candidate who favored their party’s traditional hardline foreign policies, including Lindsey Graham, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and Marco Rubio…. Trump, the presumptive nominee, has broken with foreign policy dogma on a host of issues. He asserts that decades of foreign wars have not been good for the United States – hardly a traditional Republican view.”

    The Democratic party, too, is experiencing what these youthful observers describe as a “foreign policy identity crisis”:

    “Clinton, the likely nominee, is an activist by nature and supports escalation from Afghanistan to Syria to Ukraine. Her opponent, Senator Bernie Sanders, has condemned her ‘very aggressive policy of intervention’ and said he does not believe the United States should be ‘the world’s policeman.’ Yet though Sanders effectively pushed Clinton further left in terms of domestic policy, he was unsuccessful in changing her deeply held foreign policy views.”

    The two parties are undergoing a process of “role reversal,” as these students put it, right before our eyes. Trump is now attacking “trigger happy Hillary,” while Mrs. Clinton is parrying these thrusts with accusations that “dangerous Donald” lacks the steadiness of an Establishment politician who sticks with the familiar script that casts America in the role of “the indispensable nation” destined to police the world.

    With the fall of the Soviet Union and the evaporation of the international communist movement as a credible threat to US national security,  American conservatives have been steadily moving – in fits and starts – back to their historic position of nonintervention in the affairs of other nations. Neoconservatism was an anomaly, a tangent occasioned by the alleged necessities of the cold war: its life was prolonged by the 9/11 attacks, but as the effect of that signal event wore off, and as the country exhausted itself in a futile (and losing) military campaign to make the Middle East into an Arabic version of Kansas, the rebellion against the neocons gathered strength and finally triumphed. No matter what the fate of Trump’s candidacy, and in spite of his other controversial views, he has succeeded in overthrowing the old GOP foreign policy orthodoxy and replacing it with what he calls a policy of “America First.”

    And while this inward-looking nationalism has its problems and contradictions, the direction the Right seems to be moving is an unmistakable victory for anti-interventionists: the terms of the foreign policy discourse have been shifted in a fundamental way, and – much to the neocons’ chagrin – there is no going back.

    On the left, too, the anti-interventionists are on the offensive. Although they have not succeeded in overthrowing the Establishment – thanks to a rigged primary system, Mrs. Clinton has all but clinched the nomination – Sanders has directly challenged Clintonian interventionism and he is taking his fight all the way to the Democratic party national convention. Sanders’ critique of the bipartisan foreign policy “consensus” springs from the same roots as Trump’s: correctly perceiving an economic and even a spiritual crisis on the home front, Bernie wants America to come home and concentrate on solving our domestic problems – which threaten to overwhelm us even as we go marching off to “liberate” the world.

    This turmoil is cause for optimism – and, indeed, in researching this column, I took at look back at one of my old columns, “The Case for Optimism,” in the course of which I wrote the following:

    “To be sure, the military-industrial complex gets rich off our wars, but the fact is that their rising stock values are making the rest of us poorer – and, increasingly, the American people (and people all over the world, for that matter) are well aware of it. Which brings us to the third major factor limiting the War Party’s future prospects: technological advances that make the acquisition of knowledge much easier.

     

    “It used to be that we had to rely on government officials and their journalistic camarilla for information about America’s far-flung military interventions: back in 1914, for example, very few Americans could place Sarajevo on a map, and even fewer knew of the complex political and social factors that led to the fateful assassination of an Austrian archduke in that city, an event that eventually dragged us into the Great War. It was easy to fool the people into believing a conflict that would destroy European civilization at its zenith was really a war to ‘make the world safe for democracy.’

     

    “Today the job of the war propagandist is much harder, and the reason is the Internet. While most Americans still probably couldn’t place Sarajevo on a map, they could easily choose to do so with a few keystrokes – and therein lies the big problem faced by warmongers these days.”

    The case for optimism has never been stronger. The War Party is beleaguered, besieged, and beside itself with panic because the American people are finally waking up. A lot of this is due to the Internet – and the existence of Antiwar.com has played a part in all this.

    For twenty years we’ve been debunking the lies of the War Party and building up a slow but steady momentum on behalf of a real movement to change American foreign policy. And now the big breakthrough is coming, with a real mass rebellion against the bipartisan “consensus” that insists America’s proper role is to police the world. With our country facing a growing internal crisis, and the foreign wars we’re engaged in turning into disasters on every front, the American people are rising up and demanding an end to the Empire.

    The part Antiwar.com plays in all this is key – because the voters don’t necessarily have the facts on hand. Ordinary folks don’t have the time or the inclination to research what’s really going on in Syria, or what the facts are about who’s paying the lion’s share for NATO. They have jobs, families, lawns to mow and kids to take to soccer practice – they don’t have time to become foreign policy experts!

    So when some bought-and-paid for “expert” is cited in the media as being absolutely certain that some tinpot despot has “weapons of mass destruction,” or that Vladimir Putin is definitely plotting to march on Paris tomorrow, they may be skeptical of the need for Uncle Sam to intervene – but they don’t know enough to contest “expert” opinion. This is how the Beltway crowd pulls the wool over people’s eyes every time. Yet there is an antidote for the poisonous lies being spread by the War Party – and that’s Antiwar.com.

  • CNN Lashes Out At Trump Over Vince Foster "Conspiracy", Rushes To Hillary's Defense

    Following Trump’s bombardment of Bill and Hillary Clinton over the past 24 hours, first with a video clip featuring Bill rape accusers Kathleen Willey and Juanita Broaddrick, and shortly thereafter by digging up the most sensitive skeleton in the Clintons’ closet, that of Vince Foster, whose death Trump said he found “very fishy“, we wondered briefly if and how Hillary would respond.

    We got our answer moments ago when the response came, only not from Hillary, but from one of her favorite TV outlets, CNN whose Jake Tapper valiantly stepped up to the Clintons’ defense.”

    “Once again, journalists are in the unhappy predicament of trying to decide whether and how to cover false allegations raised by a candidate for president of the United States,” Tapper said at the start his show, “The Lead.” He continued: “The notion that this was a murder is a fiction born of delusion and untethered to reality and contradicted by evidence reviewed in at least six investigations, one of them by Ken Starr, hardly a Bill Clinton defender. To say otherwise is ridiculous, and, frankly, shameful.”

    Tapper claims reiterating that his scrutiny of Trump’s comments wasn’t “pro-Clinton” or “anti-Trump” but a “pro-truth position.” Some would beg to differ.

    Tapper continued: “Trump called the circumstances surrounding Foster’s death “very fishy” in an interview with The Washington Post, saying the aide had “intimate knowledge” of events surrounding the Clintons. Trump has recently launched personal attacks at Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential front-runner.

    “I don’t bring [Foster] up because I don’t know enough to really discuss it,” Trump told the newspaper. “I will say there are people who continue to bring it up because they think it was absolutely a murder. I don’t do that because I don’t think it’s fair.”

    Tapper’s meltdown at Trump continued for having “lent credence to a bizarre and unfounded conspiracy theory,” saying Trump was “right to say it wasn’t fair to bring up the conspiracies. You’re right, it’s not fair that you did that, certainly not to Mr. Foster’s widow or their three children.”

    His conclusion: “The notion that this was a murder is a fiction borne of delusion and untethered to reality and contradicted by evidence in at least six investigations. To say otherwise is ridiculous and frankly shameful. This is not a pro-Clinton position or an anti-Trump position, it is a pro-truth position.

    Which, of course, anyone rushing to Hillary’s defense would conclude with.

    * * *

    We doubt Tapper has brought this, or any other issue to a close, in this most remarkable presidential race in history.

    In fact, judging by the speed and severity of his response, the CNN anchor, one of many who still hasn’t grasped how Trump operates, has merely assured that Trump will not only continue to irritate the Tappers of the world by bringing up Foster, but will also push deeper until he penetrates through the thick shield of media defenders surrounding Hillary and forces her to confront demons she was confident has been buried decades ago.

    Full clip below.

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Today’s News 24th May 2016

  • Ten Riot Police Squads Deployed To Greek Refugee Camp As Evacuation Begins

    Fearing a "forced" evacuation, dozens of migrants have left the refugee camp at Idomeni on the Greek-Macedonian border and are reportedly hiding in the surrounding region. It is perhaps no surprise they are fleeing as KeepTalkingGreece reports, ten riot police squads left Athens this morning and are expected to take position at the camp to aid in what officials call "a friendly evacuation." Other police forces from Northern Greece will be deployed in the area for "as long as it takes" to remove the 8,500 men, women, and children.

    According to Greek media, the evacuation of the camp is scheduled to be launched at 6 a.m. on Tuesday and conclude after a week to ten days. Spokesman of Migration Coordination Body, Giorgos Kyritsis said Monday morning that operation may start “Tuesday or Wednesday.”

    Buses will transfer the refugees to several open accommodation reception centers across the country. There are apparently empty places in refugee centers, however not enough to host all these people. Therefore, more reception places are to be established in the next days.

    The evacuation plan has been prepared by the Ministry of Public Order and Greek police.

    Authorities consider a “friendly evacuation” with the use of “as less violence as possible” as there are many children, babies and other vulnerable people in the camp. However, they do not exclude problems to arise if refugee groups and/or “solidarity organizations” that oppose the camp evacuation and support an open border policy.

    It is not clear, how close Greek and international media will be allowed to cover the operation.

    Greek government had long planned the evacuation of the camp, however reception places were not ready.

    The evacuation will also free the rail track that has been “occupied” by refugees and migrants and allow trains to come through again.

    Plans always seem perfect on the papers. Let’s see how “friendly” the evacuation will be implemented…

  • Who Is Right Between Oil And Other Commodities: One Hedge Fund's Opinion

    From Francesco Filia of Fasanara Capital

    So far in May, base metals and Oil decoupled markedly (chart attached below). While the Oil price kept rising and moved closer to 50$, base metals fell off a cliff and descended below March lows.

    We believe that Oil is the errant outlier, helped by deep but temporary supply outages in Canada and Nigeria and all-time record speculative flows, and is more likely to catch down to other commodities going forward rather than the other way round. We look at Oil gyrations as short-term heavy volatility, within a long-term downward trend.

    • Supply disruptions in Canada and Nigeria held back 2mn b/d. Temporarily.
    • Speculation runs at record levels: NYMEX Crude Oil Non-Commercial Long Contracts at all-time highs (chart below)

    On the other hand, weakness in commodities is consistent with fundamentals:

    • Weak aggregate demand (likely to stay shallow in the foreseeable future) vis-a-vis chronic global over-supply,
    • China inability to keep expanding credit at current pace and keep creating an illusion of demand the world over (1trn$ or 10% of GDP per quarter is unsustainable),
    • A stronger US Dollar, and the unease of the FED to talk it down, as current account deficit shrinks and only small hikes are priced in

    As such, at present, we find the price action so far in May to come in confirmation of our underlying thesis, thus expect more weakness in commodities from here, and Oil to eventually give in.

    * * *

    Extract from our latest Outlook
    Investment Outlook 3rd May attached here

    1.    Strong US Dollar Factor:

    The weak Dollar is the major factor propelling the reflation sentiment in the market – EMs and Commodities greeted it with enthusiasm. However, it seems to us more a story of appreciating Yen and Eur out of the failed attempts by the Boj and the ECB to reflate their economies, as markets doubt their capacity at negative rates. It is not the typical weak Dollar out of increasing US current account deficit and increasing spending / imports, positive for the world and inflation. We expect the USD to have another leg up in the months ahead. A stronger Dollar alone has the potential to revive January-type fears over Oil, CNH, EMs, leading to a risk off of global assets, including the S&P. We see drivers of USD strength as follows:

    a.    The FED took the steam off the Dollar by moving its expected path of tightening in 2016 from 4 hikes to 2 hikes only. The FED may become more dovish than that, but the market already discounts that. Of the 2 rate hikes planned, a tiny 20% is priced in at present. Not much headwind for the USD is left from FED’s communication. At the other end of the equation, after recent fails, the BoJ first and then the ECB will go back at it, trying again to reflate their stagnant economies, with the debasement of JPY and EUR either a working tool or a side effect.

    b.    A contracting current account deficit and budget deficit in the US will help strengthen the US Dollar. Recent trade balance numbers showed an unexpected marked improvement. The propensity to take on more debt for households and businesses may well be on a declining path. Savings rate for lower income brackets may rise as uncertainties loom large, the cost of retirement has gone up on zero rates environment, together with growing healthcare and education costs. Corporates desire for leverage, buybacks and M&As, may also deflate somewhat, as short rate rise, leverage ratios are now high (the median credit rating for S&P companies is now BB and declining, for a median net debt/ebitda above 3), regulation changes (inversion trades), pricing power is weak, excess capacity abounds.  The public sector should fill the gap, but that is unlikely to happen in an election year. You can’t increase deficit if you do not take on more debt. If borrowing declines, the deficit declines, the US Dollar rallies.

    c.    Most likely, the relative performance of the US economy will continue to outclass growth in EMs, Europe and Japan. Technology is a huge plus for the US economy, their lead likely to outlast any speed-bump due to elections.

    2.    China factor:

    In the first quarter of 2016, it only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of monumental 1trn$ credit expansion (a whopping 10% of GDP in one quarter); unsustainable pace, and clearly a Pyrrhic victory. Unsurprisingly, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not. And generally, what is the point in selling reserves to defend the peg, thus doing monetary tightening, when you seek so desperately monetary expansion.

    China’s slowdown will continue affecting commodities markets front and center, metals in primis. China has grown to become the world’s largest purchaser of aluminum, iron ore, zinc, nickel and copper, asking every year for more than double the needs o the US, Europe and Japan altogether. Incidentally, moreover, the speculative flows that determined massive volatility in RMB equity markets earlier on and possibly boosted propensity to currency outflows, are now to be seen in the commodity market. Not only then China buys a lot of metals, but speculative flows multiply those flows a few times over. Anecdotally, twice in the last few months, trading volumes in Iron Ore on the Dallan Commodities Exchange exceeded total China’s 2015 imports (950m tonnes), in a single day. Rebar trading volumes exceeded Iron Ore, across 100 million trading accounts. Authorities rushed to curb speculation through higher fees and more margin requirements, but we have seen how effective they were last time around. An epic unwind may loom large (Read).

    Base Metals vs. Brent

    In May, there has been a clear divergence between Oil and other commodities. We believe that Oil is the errant outlier, helped by deep but temporary supply outages in Canada and Nigeria, and is more likely to catch down to other commodities going forward rather than the other way round. We look at Oil gyrations as short-term heavy volatility, within a long-term downward trend.

     

    Speculative flows on Oil at all-time record highs

    NYMEX Crude Oil Light Sweet Non-Commercial Long Contracts/Futures Only at all-time highs

     

    Iron Ore Futures

    Iron Ore has recently broken below March lows, falling by almost 30% this month. More weakness may be expected in the following weeks.

    Rebar Futures

    Similarly to Iron Ore, Rebar lost more than 30% in the last month.

     

    US Crude Oil Production

    US Crude Oil Production is slowing but not falling off a cliff (differently than what most market participants seem to believe).

     

    DOE Crude Oil Total Inventories

    Crude Oil inventories remain close to historical highs (despite 60+ defaults in the US energy sector alone this year).

     

    US Interest Rate Implied Probabilities

    A 32% hike probability is now priced in for the June meeting, from just 4% last week.

    US 2yr Treasuries’ yield

    2yr US yields are currently close to a major resistance.

     

     

  • FBI's Own Report Exposes "War On Cops" As Pure Propaganda

    Submitted by William Grigg via The Free Thought Project,

    Following a year in which the public was relentlessly barraged with alarmist rhetoric about a “war on cops” and the dreadful impact of the so-called “Ferguson Effect,” official FBI statistics confirm that violent line-of-duty police deaths declined precipitously in 2015.

    According to the Bureau:

    “Preliminary statistics … show that 41 law enforcement officers were feloniously killed in the line of duty in 2015. This is a decrease of almost 20 percent when compared with the 51 officers killed in 2014.” A greater number of officers (45) suffered fatal injuries in duty-related accidents, 41 of which involved motor vehicles.

     

    Through May 17 of this year, according to the Officer Down Memorial Page, there have been 35 line-of-duty police officer deaths, 21 of which involve violence, such as gunfire or vehicular assault. This suggests that 2016 might see an increase in that grim total, but fortunately that remains only a possibility.

    Throughout 2015, law enforcement officials, police unions, and even FBI Director James Comey warned of a “war on cops” that was supposedly an outgrowth of what they called the “Ferguson Effect” – police reluctance to use force because of concerns over negative publicity. On May 10, for instance, Comey reiterated that theme, insisting that the “viral video effect” has changed “the way police may be acting” by inhibiting them from taking assertive action to deal with violent crime. This supposedly leaves police more insecure, thereby emancipating criminals to wreak havoc on under-protected communities.

    However, as former Baltimore police officer-turned-police reform advocate Michael Wood Jr. told The Intercept, there are cases in which less aggressive policing has corresponded to a decline in violent crime: Where police don’t treat the public as an enemy to be subdued, the public responds by seeking help, and giving it, in the effort to deter crimes against persons and property.

    “Police now for the first time are having to consider the consequences of being brutal, being unethical, and doing things that for the longest time they could do and not be accountable for,” Wood declares. “But that doesn’t make crime happen.”

    Comey’s melodramatic statements about a “chill wind blowing through law enforcement,” and reliance on things he has been told “in lots of conversations privately with police leaders” demonstrate that “he is pushing an ideology,” Woods continues. “Comey’s position is that if the armed enforcement wing of the government takes its boot off the neck of the public, just a little, then we will just become killers.”

    While fewer police suffered violent deaths last year than in any year since 2013 – when 27 officers were feloniously killed – there is no evidence that the police have been inhibited in the use of deadly force. According to unofficial tabulations, at least 1,200 Americans died in violent encounters with the police last year. Official notice is taken of each of the exceedingly rare instances in which police are violently killed, but there is no official tally of people killed by the police, or accounting for whether each use of lethal force was legally justified.

    It is true, as Comey and other law enforcement officials have said, that last year’s murder rate was about eleven percent higher than the year before, as defined by crime statistics gathered in the country’s 30 largest cities. However, as the Brennan Center for Justice points out in its detailed report on the subject, “Even with the 2015 increases, murder rates are roughly the same as they were in 2012”; furthermore, while murder rates were up in 14 of the 30 largest cities, 11 others saw that rate go down last year.

    When all documented offenses against persons and property were taken into account, elaborates the Brennan Center, the crime rate for 2015 declined by 1.5 percent.

    “It is important to remember just how much crime has fallen in the last 25 years,” underscores the Brennan Center report. “The crime rate is now half what it was in 1990, and almost a quarter (22 percent) less than it was at the turn of the century.”

    Since violent on-duty police deaths are vanishingly rare, and crime of all kinds at near-historic lows, what is the real “Ferguson Effect”?

    Perhaps the true meaning of that expression is found in the emergence of a movement spearheaded by police unions to define law enforcement as a “specially protected category” for the purposes of “hate crimes” prosecution.

    Police officers already enjoy the benefits of “Blue Privilege” – qualified immunity and special consideration in the use of occupational violence. Criminal offenses against police officers are already treated as serious felonies. However, at the urging of police unions and their allies, legislatures in several states are considering bills that would treat violence against police – such as actively resisting arrest – as hate crimes.

    Versions of that legislation, which is supported by the Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) – the country’s largest police union – have been introduced in Maryland and Louisiana, and as ordinances in several cities. The Louisiana bill, HB 953, would make any offense committed against a person or property because of “actual or perceived … employment as a law enforcement officer or firefighter” a felony punishable by up to five years in prison and a $5,000 fine.

    An FOP-supported bill in Maryland that would likely serve as a model for federal legislation would make resisting arrest a “hate crime” owing to the identity of the supposed victim. State legislatures elsewhere are considering similar measures, and some municipal governments are enacting resolutions endorsing the FOP’s demand to swaddle police officers in federal “specially protected” status.

    In a letter to President Obama, Chuck Canterbury, National President of the armed tax-feeders’ union, demanded that “the current Federal hate crimes law be expanded to include law enforcement officers. This call has gone unanswered and our nation’s law enforcement officers continue to die in the streets.”

    Displaying tone-deafness as to what his comments say about the supposed valor of police officers, Canterbury demanded that cops be designated a “specially protected” group who are “hunted and targeted just because of the uniform they wear.” This woeful account of insurgent criminals and besieged cops evolved into a demand that “hate speech” be treated as a federal offense.

    “Elected officials are quick to console the families of the fallen and praise us for the difficult and dangerous work that we do every day,” sniffles the FOP commissar. “Yet, too many are silent when the hate speech floods the media with calls for violence against police or demands that police stand down and give them” – Canterbury never defines “them,” interestingly – “`room to destroy.’ The violence will not end until the rhetoric does which is why I have called on Congress and your Administration to work with us to address the surge of violence against police by expanding the Federal hate crimes law to protect police.” (Emphasis added.)

    The objective here, once again, is to penalize rhetoric as a criminal act against a member of a specially protected class. Apparently, the “War on Cops” won’t be won until citizens who criticize them face criminal prosecution for doing so. 

  • The Fed's Loss Of Credibility Is Real: This Is What It Looks Like

    Asset markets aren't prepared for a hawkish Fed. As Bloomberg's Richard Breslow notes Fed speakers have even taken to the Sunday talk shows to beat the rate-rise drum as economics is morphing into punditry. They’re going to raise rates because they can, are independent, apolitical and can’t be bullied by foreigners. The numbers notwithstanding…

    Hallelujah

     

    Perhaps we’ll know more when Chair Janet Yellen speaks on Friday in the more rarefied surroundings of Radcliffe Yard. For all the talk, one thing is true: asset markets aren’t priced for a FOMC ready to raise rates and looking to do more.

     

     

    The yield curve continues to flatten, reaching its tightest levels since 2007. That’s a sign of low medium-term inflation expectations and concern that the economic cycle is closer to recession than boom.

     

    It also reflects investors continuing to extend duration in search for yield, exactly what the Fed has forced them to do.

    Simply put, as BofAML warns, a lack of credibility constrains Fed effectiveness drastically as they have "cried hawk" one too many times…

    The policy mistake angle assigned to the Fed is visible in more areas than the yield curve.

     

    As we have said repeatedly stated before, the TIPS market continues to believe that the Fed will deliver real rates that are far too high and miss on its long-term inflation target by at least 50bp.

     

    To us, the lack of focus and the inability of the Fed to improve longerterm expectations priced-in to the rates market the line of igniting a bigger concern: getting dangerously close to the market pricing in inverted yield curves, two to three years forward.

     

     

    The policy mistake feedback loop in the rates market will unwind only when the focus shifts to boosting longer-term global growth and inflation expectations as opposed to shifting near-term hike probabilities in an environment where structural risks remain (China, potential growth).

    Therefore, as Breslow concludes, if the Fed plans to preemptively tighten, many investors will be caught massively off side doing the central bank’s bidding. Unless the Fed immediately starts intoning the mantra of “gradualism” in every speech.

    Which raises the question, “why tighten now?” Inflation below target, but too many jobs being created seems an odd rationale after so many lean years.

     

    With equities still hovering near all-time highs despite earnings being suspect, and global trade under attack, it’s hard to argue anything priced in.

     

    What cost are they prepared to pay to give banks better net-interest-margins?

     

    The dollar has been bouncing in the last three weeks from silly levels and amid further global economic weakness. A hawkish Fed could see the rally pick up a head of steam.

     

     

    Dollar strength protesting as game theory: Get it low so it can go up from a lower level.

    If the Fed wants to rack up a success, they should let the economy continue to improve. Raising rates when they aren’t sure risks being a “Mission Accomplished” moment.

  • The CME Admits Futures Trading Was Rigged Under Old System

    Ask any trader what they believe to be the hallmark feature of any “rigged market” and the most frequent response(in addition to flagrant crime of the type supposedly demonstrated every day by Deutsche Bank and which should not exist in a regulated market) will be an institutionally bifurcated and legitimized playing field, one in which those who can afford faster, bigger, more effective data pipes, collocated servers and response times – and thus riskless trades – outperform everyone else who may or may not know that the market is legally rigged against them.

    Think of it as baseball game for those who take steroids vs a ‘roid free game, only here the steroids are perfectly legal for those who can afford them. Or like a casino where the house, or in this case the HFTs, always win.

    However, as it turned out, the vast majority of the public had no idea that a small subset of the market was juicing, despite our constant reports on the topic since 2009, until the arrival of Michael Lewis’ book Flash Boys, which explained the secret sauce that made all those HFT prop shops into unbeatable “trading titans“: frontrunning.

    That’s really all one had to know about the mystical inner working of the modern market. All Reg NMS did was legitimize and legalize frontrunning at a massive scale for those who could afford (and hide) it, all the while the technology race ran in the background making it increasingly more expensive to stay at the top: fiber optics, microwaves, lasers, FPGAs, PCI-Express and so on.

    And, as we have also discovered in recent years especially since the advent of IEX, for many exchanges providing a two-tiered marketplace was the lifeblood of the business model: the bulk of the revenues for “exchanges” such as BATS and Nasdaq would come from selling non-HFT retail and institutional orderflow to HFT clients. Since the HFTs made far more than the invested cost in permitting such perfectly legal frontrunning, they were happy, the exchanges were happy too as they betrayed only those clients who didn’t pay up the “extra fee”, and only the true outsiders lost. And any time they complained how rigged the system was against them, the HFTs would scream that “they provide liquidity” as they are the real modern-day market makers.

    Except that’s not true: the only time HFTs provide liquidity it when it is not needed. When liquidity is truly scarce and required in the market, such as on days like the May 2010 flash crash, or August 2015…  they disappear.

    Meanwhile, nothing changes, because the regulators are just as corrupt as the exchanges and the HFTs, and their role is not to bring transparency to a broken, manipulated market, but to keep retail investors in the dark about just how rigged everything is.

    It appears that the CME was doing just that as well.

    According to Bloomberg, the CME Group – the world’s largest exchange operator – just completed an “upgrade” traders said would eliminate a shortcoming that gave some participants an advantage.

    Under the old system, data connections that linked customers to CME – where key products like Treasury futures and contracts tied to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index trade – had noticeably different speeds, opening up the potential for gaming, according to traders and other experts. Those who knew how to gain faster access could increase their odds of being first in line to trade.

    The new design supposedly stamps that out.

    Oh, so it was a design glitch that allowed those who “knew” how to frontrun everyone else to do so. That’s the first time we have heard of the particular excuse. Usually the scapegoat is a “glitch”, only in this case the CME didn’t even bother.

    “It’s an excellent step forward,” said Matthew Andresen, co-owner of Headlands Technologies LLC, a quantitative trading firm. “The new architecture is flat and fair, a great improvement,” said Andresen, whose knowledge of market infrastructure goes back to the 1990s, when he worked for electronic trading pioneer Island ECN.

    But, wait… if it is an “excellent step” that some traders can no longer frontrun other traders on the CME, why is it not a “poor step” that virtually every other exchange still enables precisely this kind of tiered marketplace, which is neither flat nor fair?

    Actually, scratch that: that’s precisely what IEX is trying to resolve. The reaction? An exchange which explicitly profits from providing a two-tiered market and charging an arm and a leg for those who can afford it (and thus frontrun everyone else) namely the Nasdaq, has threatened to sue the SEC if it permits IEX to become a full-fledged stock exchange.

    As Bloomberg adds, the situation involving CME’s data connections highlights a fresh set of difficulties ensuring a level playing field in the era of light-speed markets, in which even the smallest bits of a second matter. The race to shave off milliseconds has spurred efforts to carve through mountains, span continents with microwave networks and prompted a backlash championed by the likes of IEX Group Inc., the upstart stock market that delays trading to impose fairness.

    Unlike some of today’s state of the art means of being faster than everyone else, frontrunning orderflow on the CME was more of a “brute force” mechanism: CME customers are allotted data connections to the exchange. Some have more, some have less. Given that their speeds varied noticeably under the old architecture, the more lines a trading firm had, the better odds it could find a faster one. Trading firms with a lot of links had the chance to fish around for the fastest way to get trades done. Other firms that didn’t have as many connections or the computer programming resources to test around and find the quickest, most efficient way in were at the mercy of the connections they had.

    “The performance could vary widely” with data connections under the former CME architecture, Andresen said. By which he meant that those who could afford to pay much more than everyone else, would also be able to frontrun almost everyone else.

    But no more. The new system “is an important innovation that will set a new standard for fair and efficient access to the futures markets,” said Benjamin Blander, managing member of Radix Trading, a Chicago-based trading firm.

    CME declined to comment on claims the old system was unfair, Bloomberg adds. “We are continuously enhancing our infrastructure in order to provide the latest and best technology architecture for our clients,” said Michael Shore, a spokesman for CME.

    CME has been installing the new architecture since February. The last group of futures and options became available on the new system last week, according to CME. Traders aren’t required to switch over to the new system and can keep trading the old way if they want.

    This isn’t the first time CME revamped its systems to stamp out an imperfection. Before an upgrade more than two years ago, traders were notified that their own orders were completed before everyone else found out, potentially giving initiators of transactions time to buy or sell on other exchanges with knowledge of their executions.

    We expect more violations of “accidentally” rigged markets to be uncovered in time, both on the CME and elsewhere, although we wonder at this time does it even matter: besides central banks trading with other central banks (especially courtesy of the CME’s own Central Bank Incentive Program), does anyone else even bother? If judging by the total collapse in trading volumes over the past decade in virtually every product class, the answer is clear.

  • Wheelbarrow Economics

    Submitted by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

    In 2014, we published an article entitled “Watch the Movie Before It Is Filmed.” In that article, I described the situation in Venezuela at that time. The effects of fifteen years of collectivism were threatening to collapse the economy. The government was reacting by printing bolivares (Venezuelan currency) on a large scale—a knee-jerk solution that has been utilized by over twenty other countries in the last century—always with the same outcome: hyperinflation, resulting in economic collapse.

    At the time, I recommended to readers that they “watch the movie” as it was being played out in Venezuela, as it would offer them insight into what was on the way in their own country, should they reside in Europe or North America.

    The pattern followed by Venezuela is roughly the same as for the other jurisdictions; Venezuela is just a bit more advanced in the progression. Therefore, what we are observing in Venezuela is likely to be played out in other countries that have made the same mistake of taking on more debt than they can ever pay back.

    As predicted, Venezuela is now well along with regard to hyperinflation.

    The traditional definition of “inflation” is “the increase of the amount of money in circulation.” Today, we think of inflation as an increase in the cost of goods, but this is merely a predictable by-product of inflation. If the amount of money increases, the cost of goods will always rise to meet it. Therefore, the issuance of large amounts of paper money has only a very temporary positive effect. Ultimately, it creates an increase in the price of goods and services, which, in turn, calls for further printing.

    In 1922, Germany was up to its eyes in debt, to the point that it was beyond repayment. The government, in attempting to overcome the dire poverty that had developed, decided to print more paper banknotes. The printing didn’t (and couldn’t) solve the problem, so they printed more. Then more again. They kept up the printing, until, by the autumn of 1922, the reichsmark was worth so little that new bills were being delivered to the banks in boxcars. A story of the time describes a man bringing a wheelbarrow of reichsmarks to a baker to buy a loaf of bread. Whilst in the shop, making the deal with the baker, he was robbed—the wheelbarrow full of money that he had left out on the sidewalk had been stolen. The thief dumped the reichsmarks on the pavement and made off with the wheelbarrow.

    Above, we see a photo from the time—a wheelbarrow full of reichsmarks. Next to it, we see a photo from present-day Venezuela—a wheelbarrow full of bolivares.

    So, are the leaders of Venezuela learning from the mistakes of other countries that have followed this pattern? Far from it. Recently, they took delivery of over five billion banknotes—enough to fill three dozen 747 cargo planes. At the same time, Venezuela is selling off its gold in order to pay for the new currency and other debts. Venezuela will soon run out of real money to pay for the fiat money, and that will bring the charade to a disastrous end.

    The reader may say to himself, “When will people learn?” Sadly, they don’t. Incredibly, when the reichsmark collapsed in 1923, no one blamed the excessive printing. In fact, many people felt that if only the printing had continued just a bit longer, everything might have been all right.

    What we can take away from this is that what happened in Weimar Germany in 1922–1923 is happening now in Venezuela in 2016. (And has happened in some twenty other countries over the last hundred years, most recently in Argentina in 2000 and in Zimbabwe in 2008.)

    The same will occur in Europe and America in the fairly near future. That’s not a “Chicken Little” overreaction; it’s a virtual certainty. The same economic errors always bring the same catastrophic results.

    Ben Bernanke, just two years prior to being named head of the Federal Reserve, assured an audience that the Fed would react to any deflationary trend by printing as many currency notes as necessary. This was no idle threat. Remember, the owners of the Fed profit heavily from the hidden tax of inflation, but lose money if there is deflation. That assures us that, with the present unsustainable level of U.S. national debt (nominally, some nineteen trillion dollars, but actually some hundred trillion dollars, including unfunded liabilities), a collapse in the dollar is a given.

    And, of course, the severity of the crash is always commensurate with the level of the debt, which promises us that, since this debt load is by far the greatest the world has ever seen, the crash will be the greatest the world has ever seen.

    Those who have studied the histories of countries after they’ve experienced a hyperinflationary collapse will be aware of what’s headed their way, if they reside in Europe or North America. Those who have not undertaken such a study might choose instead to watch the movie—to observe what happens in Venezuela as its hyperinflation plays out and learn what their own fate might be.

    Our predicted outcome, which may have seemed hypothetical in 2014, is now right around the corner in Venezuela. This will be of value to the reader who watches as the collapse occurs, then observes what follows. The events that unfold will be essentially the events that will unfold in Europe and North America when their respective collapses occur.

    This “movie” is not meant to be entertainment at the expense of others’ suffering; watching it is a way to forewarn oneself as to what’s coming to those countries that are irrevocably on the same path, but have not yet reached the same point.

    By watching, the reader may be forewarned as to how to prepare himself so that, whilst his country may be headed toward economic collapse, he may take action to assure that the impact to himself, his family and his investments are diminished.

  • We're In The Eye Of A Global Financial Hurricane

    Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    The only "growth" we're experiencing are the financial cancers of systemic risk and financialization's soaring wealth/income inequality.

    The Keynesian gods have failed, and as a result we're in the eye of a global financial hurricane.

    The Keynesian god of growth has failed.

    The Keynesian god of borrowing from the future to fund today's consumption has failed.

    The Keynesian god of monetary stimulus / financialization has failed.

    Every major central bank and state worships these Keynesian idols:

    1. Growth. (Never mind the cost or what kind of growth–all growth is good, even the financial equivalent of aggressive cancer).

    2. Borrowing from the future to fund today's keg party, worthless college diploma, particle board bookcase, stock buy-back, etc. (oops, I mean "investment")–a.k.a. deficit spending which is a polite way of saying this unsavory truth: stealing from our children and grandchildren to fund our lifestyles today.

    3. Monetary stimulus / financialization. If private investment sags (because there are few attractive investments at today's nosebleed valuations and few attractive investments in a global economy burdened with massive over-production and over-capacity), drop interest rates to zero (or below zero) to "stimulate" new borrowing… for whatever: global carry trades, bat guano derivatives, etc.

    Here is my definition of Financialization:

    Financialization is the mass commodification of debt and debt-based financial instruments collaterized by previously low-risk assets, a pyramiding of risk and speculative gains that is only possible in a massive expansion of low-cost credit and leverage.

    That is a mouthful, so let's break it into bite-sized chunks.

    Home mortgages are a good example of how financialization increases financial profits by jacking up risk and distributing it to suckers who don't recognize the potential for staggering losses.

    In the good old days, home mortgages were safe and dull: banks and savings and loans institutions issued the mortgages and kept the loans on their books, earning a stable return for the 30 years of the mortgage's term.

    Then the financialization machine revolutionized the home mortgage business to increase profits. The first step was to generate entire new types of mortgages with higher profit margins than conventional mortgages. These included no-down payment mortgages (liar loans), no-interest-for-the-first-few-years mortgages, adjustable-rate mortgages, home equity lines of credit, and so on.

    This broadening of options (and risks) greatly expanded the pool of people who qualified for a mortgage. In the old days, only those with sterling credit qualified for a home mortgage. In the financialized realm, almost anyone with a pulse could qualify for an exotic mortgage.

    The interest rate, risk and profit margins were all much higher for the originators. What's not to like? Well, the risk of default is a problem. Defaults trigger losses.

    Financialization's solution: package the risk in safe-looking securities and offload the risk onto suckers and marks. Securitizing mortgages enabled loan originators to skim the origination fees and profits up front and then offload the risk of default and loss onto buyers of the mortgage securities.

    Securitization was tailor-made for hiding risk deep inside apparently low-risk pools of mortgages and rigging the tranches to maximize profits for the packagers at the expense of the unwary buyers, who bought high-risk securities under the false premise that they were "safe home mortgages."

    Financialization– which can only expand to dominate an economy if it is supported by a central bank bent on expanding credit–has two inevitable and highly toxic consequences:

    Risk seeps into every nook and cranny of the financial system, greatly increasing the odds of a systemic domino reaction in financial meltdowns. This is precisely what we saw in the 2008-09 Global Financial Meltdown (GFM): supposedly "contained" subprime mortgages toppled dominoes left and right, bringing the entire risk-saturated system to its knees.

    Extraordinary wealth and income inequality, as those closest to the central bank money/credit spigots can scoop up income-producing assets first at much lower costs than Mom and Pop Main Street investors.

    The rising anger of the masses left behind by the central bank / financialization wealth harvesting machine is the direct result of Keynesian monetary stimulus that rewards debt-based speculative gambles by those closest to the cheap-credit spigots.

    As I explain in my book Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform, the only possible output of central bank monetary stimulus is financialization, and the only possible output of financialization is unprecedented wealth and income inequality.

    The global financial system is in the eye of an unprecedented hurricane. While central bankers are congratulating themselves on their god-like mastery of Nature, and secretly praying to the idols of the Keynesian Cargo Cult every night, the inevitable consequence of borrowing from the future, the obsession with "growth" at any cost and financialization /monetary stimulus, a.k.a. the rich get richer thanks to central banks is systemic collapse.

    Don't fall for the mainstream media and politicos' shuck-and-jive that all is well and "growth" will return any day now. The only "growth" we're experiencing are the financial cancers of systemic risk and financialization's soaring wealth/income inequality.

  • Here’s How The U.S. Government Treats Whistleblowers

    Submitted by Michael Krieger of LibertyBlitzkrieg

    Here’s How the U.S. Government Treats Whistleblowers

     

    What is it about whistleblowers that the powers that be can’t stand?

     

    When I blew the whistle on the CIA’s illegal torture program, I was derided in many quarters as a traitor. My detractors in the government attacked me for violating my secrecy agreement, even as they ignored the oath we’d all taken to protect and defend the Constitution.

     

    All of this happened despite the fact that the torture I helped expose is illegal in the United States. Torture also violates a number of international laws and treaties to which our country is signatory — some of which the United States itself was the driving force in drafting.

     

    I was charged with three counts of espionage, all of which were eventually dropped when I took a plea to a lesser count. I had to choose between spending up to 30 months in prison and rolling the dice to risk a 45-year sentence. With five kids, and three of them under the age of 10, I took the plea.

     

    Tom Drake — the NSA whistleblower who went through the agency’s chain of command to report its illegal program to spy on American citizens — was thanked for his honesty and hard work by being charged with 10 felonies, including five counts of espionage. The government eventually dropped the charges, but not before Drake had suffered terrible financial, professional, and personal distress.

    This is an ongoing theme, especially in government

         – From the post: CIA Torture Program Whistleblower Speaks – “The Sad Fate of America’s Whistleblowers”

     

    While we always knew the U.S. government’s line that Snowden had avenues for effective whistleblowing through official channels was a heaping pile of bullshit, it’s always good to prove the point.

    The Guardian reports:

    Edward Snowden has called for a complete overhaul of US whistleblower protections after a new source from deep inside the Pentagon came forward with a startling account of how the system became a “trap” for those seeking to expose wrongdoing.

     

    The account of John Crane, a former senior Pentagon investigator, appears to undermine Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and other major establishment figures who argue that there were established routes for Snowden other than leaking to the media.

     

    Crane, a longtime assistant inspector general at the Pentagon, has accused his old office of retaliating against a major surveillance whistleblower, Thomas Drake, in an episode that helps explain Snowden’s 2013 National Security Agency disclosures. Not only did Pentagon officials provide Drake’s name to criminal investigators, Crane told the Guardian, they destroyed documents relevant to his defense.

     

    Snowden, responding to Crane’s revelations, said he had tried to raise his concerns with colleagues, supervisors and lawyers and been told by all of them: “You’re playing with fire.”

     

    Thomas Drake’s legal ordeal ruined him financially and ended in 2011 with all serious accusations against him dropped. His case served as a prologue to Snowden’s. Now Crane’s account has led to a new investigation at the US justice department into whistleblower retaliation at the Pentagon that may serve as an epilogue – one Crane hopes will make the Pentagon a safe place for insiders to expose wrongdoing and illegality.

     

    Snowden cited Drake’s case as a reason for his lack of faith in the government’s official whistleblower channels.

     

    “When I was at NSA, everybody knew that for anything more serious than workplace harassment, going through the official process was a career-ender at best. It’s part of the culture,” Snowden told the Guardian.

     

    “If your boss in the mailroom lies on his timesheets, the IG might look into it. But if you’re Thomas Drake, and you find out the president of the United States ordered the warrantless wiretapping of everyone in the country, what’s the IG going to do? They’re going to flush it, and you with it.”

    Thanks for playin’.

    For related articles, see:

    The “Insider Threat Program” and the Government’s War on Whistleblowers
    The 3 Key Takeaways from the Ridiculous “Insider Threat Program”
    CIA Torture Program Whistleblower Speaks on – “The Sad Fate of America’s Whistleblowers”
    Have You Heard of John Kiriakou?
    Revelations from the Torture Report – CIA Lies, Nazi Methods and the $81 Million No-Bid Torture Contract
    CIA Torture Victims Launch Lawsuit Against Psychologist Masterminds Behind the Program

  • "Pre-Crime" Arrives In Chicago – Big Data Tells Cops Who's Next To Be Shot

    In Chicago, where homicides are out of control and estimated to top 550 in 2016 (the most since 2012), police are so desperate to correct the problem that they are throwing good old fashioned police work to the wind, and turning to 'Minority Report'-esque algorithms to do the work for them.

     

    The Chicago PD is using an algorithm in order to generate a list of people from police databases in order to figure out who to "target." Each individual on the list is provided a score based on arrests, shootings, affiliations with gangs, and other variables. The intent of the list is to predict who is next to be shot, or shoot someone, and once the list is updated, authorities then go visit individuals with the highest scores at their home. The individuals are then told that they're on the list, and that they are being monitored the NYT reports.

    In this city’s urgent push to rein in gun and gang violence, the Police Department is keeping a list. Derived from a computer algorithm that assigns scores based on arrests, shootings, affiliations with gang members and other variables, the list aims to predict who is most likely to be shot soon or to shoot someone.

     

    The police have been using the list, in part, to choose individuals for visits, known as “custom notifications.” Over the past three years, police officers, social workers and community leaders have gone to the homes of more than 1,300 people with high numbers on the list. Mr. Johnson, the police superintendent, says that officials this year are stepping up those visits, with at least 1,000 more people.

     

    During these visits — with those on the list and with their families, girlfriends and mothers — the police bluntly warn that the person is on the department’s radar. Social workers who visit offer ways out of gangs, including drug treatment programs, housing and job training.

     

    “We let you know that we know what’s going on,” said Christopher Mallette, the executive director of the Chicago Violence Reduction Strategy, a leader in the effort. “You know why we’re here. We don’t want you to get killed.”

    Authorities assume that by narrowing down the key players that are most likely to be involved in violence will allow them to stop it. Of course, civil liberties being irrelevant in today's world, the program is in use already. Police superintendent Eddie Johnson says that there is a small segment of people driving the violence, and although homicides are on the rise after three years of the program, the "Strategic Subject List" generated by the fourth revision of the algorithm is the answer to stopping them. Supporters of the program point to statistics such as 117 of the 140 people arrested in a drug and gang raid last week being on the list.

    “We know we have a lot of violence in Chicago, but we also know there’s a small segment that’s driving this stuff,” Eddie Johnson, the police superintendent, said in a recent interview.

     

    The authorities hope that knowing who is most likely to be involved in violence can bring them a step closer to curtailing it. They are warning those highest on the list that they are under intense scrutiny, while offering social services to those who want a path away from the bloodshed.

     

    About three years into the program and on a fourth revision of the computer algorithm that generates the list, critics are raising pointed questions about potential breaches to civil liberties in the creation of such a ranking. And the list’s efficacy remains in doubt as killings and shootings have continued to rise this year.

     

    In a city of 2.7 million people, about 1,400 are responsible for much of the violence, Mr. Johnson said, and all of them are on the department’s “Strategic Subject List.”

     

    In a broad drug and gang raid carried out last week amid a disturbing uptick this year in shootings and murders, the Police Department said that 117 of the 140 people arrested were on the list. And in one recent report on homicides and shootings over a two-day stretch, nearly everyone involved was on the list.

     

    “We are targeting the correct individuals,” Mr. Johnson said. “We just need our judicial partners and our state legislators to hold these people accountable.”

    The algorithm was created by Miles Wernick, a professor at the Illinois Institute of Technology. Wernick says that while many variables are used to generate the list, the model avoids race, gender, ethnicity, and geography.

    Miles Wernick, a professor at the Illinois Institute of Technology, created the algorithm.

     

    It draws, the police say, on variables tied to a person’s past behavior, particularly arrests and convictions, to predict who is most likely to become a “party to violence.”

     

    The police cite proprietary technology as the reason they will not make public the 10 variables used to create the list, but say that some examples include questions like: Have you been shot before? Is your “trend line” for crimes increasing or decreasing? Do you have an arrest for weapons?

     

    Dr. Wernick says the model intentionally avoids using variables that could discriminate in some way, like race, gender, ethnicity and geography.

    * * *

    While it makes sense to use technology in order to prevent and solve crimes, the use of a 'Minority Report'-esque algorithm to generate "strategic subject lists" wreaks of infringing on individual's civil liberties. Then again, since when do civil liberties matter anymore. Also, as everything is now just being funneled into one big data warehouse that nobody is allowed to know anything about anyway, at least the Chicago Police Department admits to the targeting.

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Today’s News 23rd May 2016

  • Despite Depression, Greece Forced To Hike VAT, Add New Taxes

    Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    Greece remains in an economic depression interrupted by a few quarters of anemic growth.

    Hiking taxes in a depression is one of the stupidest thing one can do, but Greece is set for another vote to do just that.

    Prime minister Alexis Tsipras is once again prepared to kiss German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s behind, and his party will likely go along for the ride.

    The wildcard IMF has yet to chime in on the economic stupidity of this hike.

    Please consider Greece Set for Austerity Vote to Secure Bailout Cash.

    Greece’s parliament is expected to vote late Sunday on a raft of fresh taxes and austerity reforms that the country must legislate to unlock further rescue loans, ahead of a crucial eurozone finance ministers meeting on Tuesday.

     

    The bill includes the last portion of an austerity package worth €5.4 billion ($6.06 billion), or 3% of the country’s gross domestic product, which Greece has agreed on with its international creditors to implement by 2018 in exchange for fresh bailout funds under the terms of its third bailout deal.

     

    The IMF has said it would only sign up to the Greek bailout if Germany agrees to debt relief. But German officials are seeking to delay any debt restructuring until the end of the current Greek bailout program in 2018, so that Germany’s parliament, the Bundestag, would pass such measures only after Germany’s 2017 elections.

     

    To meet its targets, Athens was asked to set up a “contingency mechanism” of additional austerity measures worth some 2% of GDP.

     

    The measures being voted on Sunday include new taxes on fuel, tobacco, alcohol, Internet, pay TV, hotel stays, cars, changes in property tax, as well as a rise in the basic value-added tax rate, applied to most goods and services, from 23% to 24%.

     

    The Greek parliament is also expected to vote on the fiscal brake mechanism that would automatically cut state spending if Greece misses its budget targets.

     

    How much the next bailout tranche would be is still to be determined, but European Union officials indicate it could be €10 billion.

     

    Another Humiliating Greece Cave-In

    On May 14, I reported Greece “Demands” Debt Relief, Owes Troika €11+ Billion by July.

    My comment: “Greece has caved in every time, and in the most humiliating ways. Greece even caved in on pension cuts last week. Why should anyone believe Greek demands now?

    €10 billion would be a lot of money, if the money went to Greece. But virtually none of it will go to Greece.

     

    Greece Short-Term Debt Timeline

    Greece Debt Obligations1

    Somehow I expect the next tranche to be a “greater than expected” €11 billion. Perhaps €10 billion will suffice if Greece has €1 billion of its own to pony up.

     

    Greece Long-Term Debt Timeline

    Greece Debt Obligations2

    Payments to the Troika stretch all the way to 2059, while assuming Greece can maintain a primary account surplus of 3.5% the entire way.

    The IMF says this is impossible, while proposing a surplus of 1.5%, also impossible.

     

    Politics of Debt Relief

    The IMF wants debt relief now, but Germany wants the IMF to hold off until Merkel wins reelection.

    Meanwhile, the Greek depression resumes.

    Greek Tax Hikes

    These tax hikes are insane. The key question remains: Is the IMF bluffing about debt relief or not?

  • "Everything Is Plunging" – China Commodity Carnage Continues

    Hot on the heels of Trumpian-size tariffs imposed by The Obama administration on a desperately glutted and mal-invested steel industry, the entire panic-buying "well the market is always right", "China is recovering" narrative based rally in Chinese commodities has crashed back down to earth with an incredible thud. As one veteran trader in the China commodity markets put it "everything is plunging… except cotton," with Iron Ore, and Rebar down 7% today…

    At least one industry executive "got it" – Baosteel's Zhang: "The price rebound is not beneficial to the overcapacity situation…. It will delay the shutdown of (inefficient) capacity."

    How right he was…

    Dalian Iron Ore has collapsed 30% in a month, down 7% today…

     

    Steel Rebar has crashed 32% in a month, down 5% today… (it seems the brief BTFD support has completely collapsed)…

     

    Hot Rolled Coil -28% in a month, down 6% today…

     

     

    Makes one wonder what the world's only marginal-buyer-of-crude could do 'retaliate' to a nation imposing tariffs like that which is also dependent on a bounce in oil prices to supports its 'wealth-creating' stock market?

  • Guess What Occupation Is Most Frequently Cited In The Panama Papers?

    With all the anti-one-percenter rhetoric and tax-evading-evil-doer narratives spewing forth from the mainstream media mouthpieces of the establishment since The Panama Papers were exposed for all to see, it may come as a surprise to some to find out which cohort of the elites are the most populous among the tax-haven-creating documents…

    The Politicians!

    Source: WikiData

    Which makes us wonder if this leak was indeed a plot to blackmail/expose the West's ruling class?

    Nevertheless, one thing is very clear, as Luis Guillermo Valez explains via PanamPost, officials are hypocritically denouncing the strategies they practice themselves…

    Why can’t tax evasion be a legitimate form of self defense? In some countries and circumstances, it is.

    Despite what politicians want us to believe, tax havens exist because some countries have been turned into tax hellholes by officials bent on “social justice” and “income redistribution.” Sometimes, those same politicians top the list of “offshore” account holders trying to evade taxes.

    “The Wealth of Nations” by Adam Smith had something to say about this kind of government revenue, namely that taxes are a lesser evil overall than other forms of paying for public services.

    But to prevent taxes from harmful excess, Smith left to posterity the four principles of good taxation, which have been almost completely forgotten by politicians concerned with legislating taxation. Here is Smith’s wise warning:

    Excessive taxation is a powerful stimulus to evasion, so penalties to offenders grow proportionally to the temptation that causes it. Contrary to the principles of justice, the law first raises the temptation to infringe it and then punishes the violators.

    And if corruption and overspending is added to excessive taxation, the motives for tax evasion are complete. Once again Smith:

    In all countries where there is a corrupt government, and where there is suspicion that it incurs in great expense and government revenue is improperly used, very often these laws that protect contributions are little respected

    In the 1970s, I met a Canadian man called Bryan O’Connor. He used to deliver pizzas in Toronto and always carried a little notebook in which he religiously wrote down all the tips he received in his work, preventing the risk of missing a penny in his tax return.

    I’ve never met anyone else like Bryan. I think he and Immanuel Kant are probably the only people in human history who voluntarily paid all their taxes. I’m sure Bryan has.

    Nor do I believe that Jesus Christ was completely honest when answering the Pharisees about paying taxes. He said “give back to Caesar what is Caesar’s.” After all, the man had left behind the honorable carpentry work and did not seem to generate any taxable income. That’s probably why he was defeated in the famous vote competing with Barabbas, who– weapons in hand – had rebelled against the ominous tribute of Imperial Rome.

    Since ancient times people have rebelled against taxes. The Roman provinces were often faced uprisings against fiscal depredations and their leaders’ abuses. The peasant wars in Germany, of which Frederick Engels, Marx’s buddy, has left a vivid account were tax rebellions.

    The French Revolution began as the uprising of the Estates General against taxes, demanding a cheap government. Interestingly, the twentieth century, which saw a rapid growth in the size of governments and taxes, was free of riots and tax rebellions. And not because all taxpayers behaved like Bryan O’Connor.

    Panama Papers: What about Modern Governments?

    Though no less rapacious than prior ones, modern governments are more tempered and have given up on the most ominous tax collection practices: murder and torture.

    However, it is not shocking to the majority’s opinion that there are a few who punish tax evasion with imprisonment. This is the case of Mexico, Chile, and Peru, Colombia’s partners in the Pacific Alliance, and whose shameful example the Colombian government proposed to imitate in the last tax reform.

    Everyone, from the Leviathan-worshipping economists, politicians, and political scientists who serve them, to journalists, tax attorneys, and the public opinion sees the evader as a criminal and the government that punishes him as the defender of society, no matter how corrupt and abusive it may be.

    In illo tempore, the evader was seen as a hero who faced a thief state. The inverted values of current times have a background of hypocrisy that nobody can deny.

    In almost all countries, legislatures who enact taxes are composed mostly of professional politicians who, by granting special benefits, want to keep lobbyists and wealthy campaign donors happy.

    Interest groups and political operators are willing to grant each other benefits with the hope that the general coffers will bear the costs.

    Everything is a bargaining of crossed interests leading to casuistical and tangled tax regimes, completely away from the predicaments of solidarity, equity, and efficiency which ultimately are no more than a cover more for private interests.

    The economists, lawyers, tax experts, and other technicians who advise governments in the design of structural tax reforms – which are periodically announced but never arrive – are generally also company advisers and wealthy individuals looking to reduce their effective taxation rate.

    The middle class defends itself by under-invoicing or non-billing and making up liabilities and expenses on their tax returns. The poorest, who usually only are reached by indirect taxation, join the noisy protests of civil servants who live from taxes and always receive the support of politicians competing for their votes.

    That is the common background of what is called the state, from which everyone wants to get a lot and contribute little. But yes, everyone denounces tax evasion.

    Governments around the world – in their relentless fight against the tax evasion problem created by themselves with their fiscal voracity and performance – have unseemly decided to form an international coalition against so-called tax havens, while those same officials seek shelter for their good or ill-gotten fortune.

    This new and sinister Statist International will be a major threat to capital mobility and individual freedom. However, because supposedly the offshore world only affects the rich, everyone applauds in a universal expression of envy and hypocrisy.

    The problem of national and international evasion is not resolved with the creation of a universal tax police. Small, moderate, simple, and austere governments and fiscal systems adjusted to the four rules of Smith are the best antidote against tax evasion.

    But in the current state of public opinion where people accept and demand – as Walter Lippmann would say– a large government that administers their affairs for them instead of a government that administers justice among men who conduct their own affairs, it is at best an anachronism to invoke the wise old Smith.

  • Can Russia Survive Washington's Attack?

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    It is not only American generals who are irresponsible and declare on the basis of no evidence whatsoever that “Russia is an existential threat to the United States” and also to the Baltic states, Poland, Georgia, Ukraine, and all of Europe. British generals also participate in the warmongering.  UK retired general and former NATO commander Sir Richard Shirreff, Deputy Supreme Allied Commander in Europe until 2014, has just declared that nuclear war with Russia is “entirely possible” within the year.  

    My loyal readers know that I, myself, have been warning for some time about the likelihood of nuclear war.  However, there is a vast difference between me and the Western generals.  I see the war as the consequence of the neoconservative drive for US world hegemony.  The neoconservative drive for world hegemony is acknowledged by the neoconservatives themselves in their public position papers, and it has a 15 year record of being implemented in America’s many and ongoing wars in the Middle East and Africa.  Although the Presstitute media does its best to keep our focus away from the known facts, the facts remain known.

    The position of the Western generals is that “Russian aggression” is driving an innocent America/NATO to nuclear war.  

    Here is General Shirreff’s list of “Russian aggressions”: “He [Putin] has invaded Georgia, he has invaded the Crimea, he has invaded Ukraine. He has used force and got away with it.  In a period of tension, an attack on the Baltic states… is entirely plausible.” Shirreff is talking about make-believe happenings that even if real would be taking place inside what were until recently Russia’s long-standing national boundaries. 

    General Shirreff strikes me as either uninformed or a dissembler. It is the United States and Israel who use force and get away with it. The Russian invasion of the former Russian province, Georgia, was a response to the American puppet government’s invasion of South Ossetia in which the American and israeli trained and equipped Georgian troops killed Russian peace-keeping troops and a large number of South Ossetian civilians while the Russian government was at the Beijing olympics. 

    It only took a small fraction of the Russian Army a few hours to roll up the American and Israeli trained Georgian Army.  Putin had the former Russian province in his hand. He could have hung the American puppet president and reincorporated Georgia back into Russia, where if probably belongs, having spent all of modern history in that location.

    But Putin did not see Georgia as a prize, and having made his point, let the Americans have their puppet state back.  The president at the time, a scummy scoundrel, was thrown out of the country by Georgians and now serves the American puppet state of Ukraine, like so many others who are not Ukrainian. Apparently, Washington can’t find enough Ukrainians who will sell out their country for Washington and has to bring in foreigners to help Washington rule Ukraine.

    There has been, alas, no Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Putin would not even accept the pleas of the Russian majority populations in the breakaway provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk to be reincorporated back into Russia where they belong. If Putin actually wanted Ukraine, he doesn’t need to send in an army.  He can take back the eastern and southern parts just by accepting the pleas of the people to again be a part of Russia.

    The only plea that Putin accepted was that of the Crimeans, who with an extremely high turnout never experienced in “western democracies” voted 97.6 percent to rejoin Russia, where Crimea resided for longer than the US has existed, until Khrushchev, a Ukrainian, transferred Crimea from the Russian Soviet Republic to the Ukrainian Soviet Republic when both were provinces of the Soviet Union. 

    Little doubt that Putin accepted Crimea’s plea because Russia’s only warm water port and entrance into the Mediterranean Sea is Russia’s naval base in Crimea, and little doubt that Putin refused Donetsk and Luhansk in order to deflect Washington’s propagandistic charges, such as those of former general Shirreff. Putin reasoned, mistakenly in my view, that his refusal to accept Donetsk and Luhansk would reassure Washington’s NATO puppet states and lessen Washington’s influence over Europe.  For the corrupt Europeans, facts are of no consequence. Washington’s money prevails.

    Putin doesn’t understand the power of Washington’s money.  In the entire West only money counts.  There is no such thing as Washington’s word, government integrity, truth, or even empirical facts.  There are only well-propagated lies.  The entire West is a lie. The West exists for one reason only–corporate profits. 

    The retired general Shirreff claims, without any evidence, which is typical, that Putin “used force and got away with it.”

    What force is the general talking about?  Can he identify the force?  The independent international observers of the Crimean voting report that it was completely fair, that there was no intimidation, no troops or any Russian intimidation present. 

    The former NATO general Shirreff believes that a Russian attack “on the Baltic states is entirely possible.”  For what reason?  The Baltic states, former provinces of the Soviet Union, comprise no threat whatsoever to Russia.  The Russians have no reason whatsoever to attack the Baltic states. It was Russia that gave the Baltic states their independence.  Just as it was Russia that gave Ukraine and Georgia their independence.

    Imperial Washington is leveraging the reasonableness of the Russian government to put Russia in a propagandistic light. The Russian government has permitted itself to be put on the defensive and has given the attack to Washington.

    Russia has not attacked anyone except the terrorist group ISIS. Allegedly, Washington is opposed to terrorism, but Washington has been using ISIS in an effort to overthrow the Syrian government with terrorism.  Russia has put a halt to that. The question before us is whether the Russian government so desires to be accepted by the West that Putin sells out Syria to Washington/Israeli dismemberment in order to show that Russia is a good partner for the West.

    If Russia doesn’t get over its affection for the West, Russia will lose its independence.

    My understanding is that Russia has been resurrected as a Christian, morally principally country, perhaps the only one on earth.  The question that the Russian people and their Russian government need, desperately, to ask themselves is: Do we want to be associated with the War Criminal West that disobeys not only its own laws, but also international laws?

    The vast majority of the evil in the world resides in the West. It is the west with its lies and greed that has devastated millions of people in 7 countries during the new 21st century.  This is the most threatening beginning of a new millennium in modern times.

    Unsatisfied with its looting of the Third World, South America, Greece, Portugal, Latvia, Argentina, and now Brazil and Ukraine, the Western Capitalists have their sights set on Russia, China, India, and South Africa.

    What a prize it would be to get Russia with all that vast expanse of Siberia that can be environmentally brutalized and destroyed for capitalist profits. The Russian government’s offering of free land in Siberia had better be limited to Russian citizens Otherwise, the land is likely to be bought up by the West, which will use its ownership of Russia to destroy the country.

    The Russians and the Chinese are blinded by the fact that they lived for decades under oppressive and failed regimes.  They look to the West as success. Their misreading of the West endangers their independence.

    Neither Russia nor China seek conflict. It is a gratuitous and reckless act for Washington to send the message to Russia and China that they must choose vassalage or war.

  • Erdogan Nears Absolute Power With Appointment Of Puppet Premier, Stripping MPs Of Immunity

    When the news hit on May 5 that Turkey’s Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu would unexpectedly stand down from his post as a result of sharply escalating fighting behind the scenes over president Tayyip Erdogan’s relentless attempt to rule Turkey with virtually no checks and balances, the market was not happy, and the volatility of the Turkish Lira soared the most in the past decade.

     

    Since then the Turkish market has modestly tamed, even if the Erdogan’s push for supreme control has done anything but, and during today’s congress of Turkey’s AKP, Erdogan confirmed an impotent lapdog, Binali Yildirim – a close ally for two decades and a co-founder of the ruling AK Party – as his new prime minister on Sunday, which as Reuters explained was “a big step towards the stronger presidential powers [Erdogan] has long sought.” In plain English, Turkey is unofficially a dictatorship, in which Erdogan is president only in title and in reality a supreme despot as there is no longer anyone who can politically challenge the president.

    Concurrently, Erdogan also accepted the resignation of outgoing Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Sunday, hours after AKP elected Yildirim as his replacement.

    In a speech to AKP delegates who earlier elected him party leader at a special congress, Yildirim, transport minister for most of the past decade and a half, left no doubt that he would prioritise the policies closest to Erdogan’s heart. His main aim, he said, was to deliver a new constitution and create an executive presidency, a change Erdogan says will bring stability to the NATO member state of 78 million, but which opponents fear will herald greater authoritarianism.

    Yildirim, 60, said constitutional change was a necessity to legitimize the existing situation, tacit acknowledgment that Erdogan has extended the traditionally ceremonial role of the Turkish presidency. “The most important mission we have today is to legalize the de facto situation, to bring to an end this confusion by changing the constitution,” he said. “The new constitution will be on an executive presidential system.”


    Erdogan meets with incoming Prime Minister Binali Yildirim.

    The constitutional change would give Erdogan unlimited power over virtually every aspect of governance.

    As if proof were needed of where power in the party lies, delegates remained standing through a message from Erdogan read out at the start of the congress. Yildirim vowed that, under his leadership, the AKP’s way would be “Erdogan’s way“. Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag said Erdogan was the party’s one leader.

    He has made clear he will pursue two of Erdogan’s biggest priorities – the executive presidency and the fight against militants of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in the largely Kurdish southeast. “They are asking us when the anti-terror operations will end. I am announcing hereby that operations will end when all our citizens are safe,” Yildirim said in an emotional speech.

    “Operations will continue without pause until the bloody-handed terrorist organization PKK ends its armed actions.”

    Despite Erdogan’s attempts to silence any journalistic criticism by sending his biggest public detractors to prison, some dares to voice their displeasure with what is happening inside the NATO member and Europe’s close Asian ally:

    “If they can succeed, this will be a transition period for the executive presidency,” journalist Abdulkadir Selvi, who is seen as close to AKP, told Reuters.

    And now that the Turkish premier figurehead is known, investors’ eyes shift to the future of Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek, who according to Reuters is seen as one of the remaining anchors of market confidence. Erdogan, who favors consumption-led growth, has repeatedly railed against high interest rates in Turkey, saying they cause inflation, a stance at odds with mainstream economics. Without Simsek, investors fear, it will be less likely that the government will deliver on promises to liberalize the labor market, encourage savings and bring in more private investment.

    Installing a puppet PM was not all Erdogan did in this busy week: just to make sure Erdogan can use the law to crack down on any of his political opponents, last Friday Erdogan’s puppet parliament agreed to strip its members of immunity, a move which will be used by Erdogan to prosecute members of the pro-Kurdish HDP, parliament’s third-biggest party, as well as anyone else he choose to take down.

    He accuses the HDP of being the political wing of the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) which has waged a three-decade insurgency against the state. The HDP denies such links and says its parliamentary presence could be all but wiped out if prosecutions go ahead.

    In other words, if any MP says or does something that the president disagrees with, said member of parliament will promptly find themselves under arrest and behind bars: a strong deterrent never to say or do anything that would displease the ascendant tyrant.

    It is this stripping of immunity that Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel said she would discuss with Erdogan on Monday when the two meet tomorrow in Istanbul, voicing disquiet at a measure meant to sideline the pro-Kurdish opposition.


    Erdogan meets with Merkel in Ankara, Turkey February 8, 2016

    “Naturally some developments in Turkey are causing us grave concerns,” Merkel told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on Sunday, one day before she meets Erdogan on the sidelines of a U.N.-sponsored humanitarian summit in Istanbul.

    However, it’s not as if Merkel has any leverage or strings to pull. Quite the opposite: Merkel is facing accusations at home that she has become too accommodating of Erdogan as she tries to secure a European Union deal with Ankara to stem the flow of refugees from Turkey into Europe, the bulk of whom have gone to Germany.

    Worse, the accusations are 100% accurate, because as of this moment the person who dictates the future of Europe is neither in Greece, nor in Great Britain, but is not even located in Europe in the first place (although that may change soon). This guy.

  • Rapper Threatens To Kill Donald Trump If His "Momma's Food Stamps" Are Taken Away

    Threats by prominent members of the black community against Donald Trump, either directly or indirectly, are nothing new.

    Just under two months ago we reported about the latest social fallout incident from Trump’s rising popularity, when prominent Black Lives Matter activist and rapper Tef Poe tweeted a message for “white people”: if Donald Trump wins the presidency, “niggas” will ‘incite riots everywhere.’

    “Dear white people if Trump wins young niggas such as myself are fully hell bent on inciting riots everywhere we go. Just so you know,” Poe tweeted. A screenshot of his since deleted tweet was captured below by the Daily Media.

     

    To be sure, the antagonism among African-Americans toward Trump is well-known by now, and even CLSA’s noted commentator Chris Wood touched upon this in the latest edition of hs “Greed and Fear” newsletter.

     

    However, a new and perhaps even more bizarre protest, not to mention death threat, against Donald Trump was revealed this weekend when Louisiana rapper Maine Muzik said during a YouTube video recording that he would kill presumptive presidential candidate Donald Trump if his “Mamma’s food stamps are taken away.” To wit:

    I could go to war with whoever the fuck I want to, but I really want to go to war with Donald Trump because Donald Trump trying to take food stamps from my mamma and that’s all the fuck she’s got. As long as the motherfucking government let us keep food stamps… we gonna be good, but the first time this nigga pass a law talking about he taking Louisiana purchase, shit going to get ugly.  I swear to god on every motherfucking chain I got, bitchez gonna go down.

     

    You gotta understand them (inaudible) love Fruit Loops. They love that shit so if you take that shit nigga it’s coming with the madness and a nigga ain’t gonna play about that.  Y’all take Donald Trump and let him know it’s up over here. We gonna declare war.

    In his tirade he even went on to declare his allegiance to the Islamic State.

    And I ain’t worried about ISIS because they just called me, they want me to fuck with them now… Ya, we got them drums bitch and grenades but I’m scared to throw them.

    According to Vidmax, on the same week Muzik record this threat, he was visited by police for posting a video to his Instagram account where he and his gang showed off a stockpile of weapons.

    Threats aside, the implications from this “heartfelt” video for Trump could be substantial: if indeed the republican candidate wants to shift to a more “centrist” position, all he would have to do is promise he won’t “take momma’s foodstamps” and Trump could quickly find himself not only supported by belligerent Louisiana rappers, but also take a decisive chunk out of Hillary Clinton’s primary ethnic voting group.

    In the meantime, we expect more such videos which explain that for millions in potential voters, all it really boils down to is whether or not the foodstamps are taken away.

  • Governments Create Monopolies And Cause Worker-Exploitation, Not Free-Markets

    Authored by Richard M. Ebeling via The Future of Freedom Foundation,

    The world is threatened with a renewed wave of anti-capitalism and anti-business sentiments and policies. Many who cheered the demise of Soviet communism in the early 1990s, presumed that this meant that, by default, the case for free markets and competitive enterprise had won in the battle of ideas. Over the last twenty-five years it has become clear that the same misguided arguments against free market capitalism constantly reemerge, like an ideological vampire waiting to rise from the intellectual grave and drain market freedom of its lifeblood by more government regulations and controls.

    One of the most persistent of these misguided ideas is the belief that left on its own, competitive markets tend to bring about concentration of wealth, inequality of income, and “market power” to exploit workers and consumers of what justly should be theirs.

    The most recent example of this is an article on, “Monopoly’s New Era,” by Joseph E. Stiglitz, the 2001 Nobel Prize winner in economics, which appeared on Project Syndicate website on May 13, 2016. Professor Stiglitz is one of those thinkers who seem to see a “market failure” at every turn and apparently has rarely found a government intervention he did not like.

    Two Ways of Looking at the Market Process

    He contrasts two differing views of the market economy. One view, an outgrowth of Adam Smith and those who followed in his intellectual footsteps over the last 250 years, argue that freedom, prosperity, and income equity are generally assured wherever the market is kept open and competitive, with minimal government impediments.

    The other “school of thought” that he interestingly identifies with no one particular thinker of the past “takes as its starting point ‘power,’ including the ability to exercise monopoly control or, in labor markets, to assert authority over workers,” Stiglitz explains. “Scholars in this area have focused on what gives rise to power, how it is maintained and strengthened, and other features that may prevent markets from being competitive. Work on exploitation arising from asymmetries of information is an important example.”

    Professor Stiglitz insists that this second approach has shown its insight and efficacy in the clear evidence of concentration of market control and income inequality in such sectors of the market such as finance and banking, cable television, health care, pharmaceuticals, agro-business, and a variety of others.

    The truth and reality of this concentration of power and wealth conception of capitalism, Stiglitz argues, is also shown, historically, in labor markets, to the disadvantage of many “minority” groups. “Of course, historically, the oppression of large groups – slaves, women, and minorities of various types – are obvious instances where inequalities are the result of [market] power relationships,” he states.

    His conclusion, therefore, should not be surprising. If competitive capitalism leads to it’s opposite – concentrated, monopoly capitalism – then government regulation and control is essential to preserve a free, prosperous, and “socially just” society. Or in the words with which Professor Stiglitz concludes his article: “But if markets are based on exploitation, the rationale for laissez?faire disappears. Indeed, in that case, the battle against entrenched power is not only a battle for democracy; it is also a battle for efficiency and shared prosperity.”

    Karl Marx’s Theory of Worker Exploitation

    The nineteenth century economist most famous for insisting that capitalism leads to concentration, monopoly and exploitation was, of course, Karl Marx. He is the leading thinker that Stiglitz avoids mentioning by name. Marx claimed to have unearthed “the laws of historical evolution” that by a necessity as irresistible as the physical laws of nature, place human history on a trajectory that transformed society from feudalism to capitalism and would have to culminate in the triumph of socialism and a post-scarcity world of communism.

    Marx was insistent that businessmen are driven in the pursuit of profits to invest in laborsaving industrial machinery. This results in two consequences. First, in this competitive race for profits through industrialization, some private enterprisers would be driven to the wall and pushed out of business, with their companies bought up by those capitalists who had better weathered the market storm. As this process repeated itself, there would be fewer and fewer private enterprisers left standing, with the result of the private ownership of businesses remaining in fewer and fewer hands. Hence, market competition leads to the concentration of ownership and wealth in the hands of a diminishing number of enterprise owners, according to Marx.

    Second, as machines replace workers, there are fewer and fewer jobs for all those needing employment to feed themselves and their families. The non-property owning workers – “the proletariat,” in Marxian jargon – are joined by the businessmen driven out of business due to that concentration of ownership and wealth.

    Workers competing for a decreasing number of jobs bring about a lowering of wages and decreased living standards for the vast majority of the population. Thus, a growing material inequality emerges between most working members of society and the handful of property-owning wealthy capitalists, or as it has become fashionable to describe them nowadays, the “one percent.”

    Finally, in the Marxian version of this theory, the workers rise up and overthrow the remaining handful of exploiting capitalists, and the new dawn of historical progressivism arrives: socialism, with the State owning, managing and centrally planning the resources and enterprises of the society in the name of “the people.”

    Marx’s Errors and the Benefits from Classical Liberal Capitalism

    Both economic theory and the actual events of economic history have shown the errors and absurdities in this and related theories over the last two hundred years. Rather than a bi-polar social world of a handful of “the rich” versus a human mass of “the poor,” industrial and financial capitalism saw the emergence of what has become known as “the middle class,” whose numbers came from the ranks of the poverty-ridden poor of the pre-capitalist era.

    The political philosophy of classical liberalism that gained intellectual ground in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries called for the end to absolute monarchy and the establishment of representative, but constitutionally limited government. It espoused the cause of ending the governmental privileges and favors bestowed on a narrow group of special interest groups surrounding and serving the king, including legal monopolies that prevented market competition.

    Classical liberalism called for the end to slavery, the emancipation of women, and an equality of individual rights for all in society to life, liberty, and honestly acquired property before an unbiased and impartial rule of law.

    Domestic and international trade barriers were reduced or abolished, opening the field to virtually unrestricted free market competition. A smaller and far less intrusive government brought about a lowered tax burden on all in the society, leaving more of the earned wealth by all in the hands of the private individuals whose efforts and energies had produced it.

    Respect and enforcement of private property rights; competitive markets open to all those with entrepreneurial visions of how to manufacture and sell more, better and less expensive goods and services to consumers as the peaceful and honest means of pursuing the earning of profits; freed labor markets giving all the opportunity to search out gainful employment wherever the most attractive terms of earning a living seemed to offer itself; and a growing financial sector provided the means for making possible the expensive industrial investments that created jobs and expanded the productive capabilities of society.

    Capitalism Created a Prosperous Middle Class from the Poor

    The last point is, perhaps, worth emphasizing. Through most of human history, the vast majority of people who found themselves able to somehow save anything out of their meager earnings were fortunate if they could hide away a few gold or silver coins as a form of accumulated wealth.

    But the development of modern banking now made it possible for even those of meager material means to put aside their modest savings in a financial institution offering an interest return on their deposits. These financial institutions could now pool together large amounts of savings from many modest savers. They funneled these people’s savings out to entrepreneurs who could never have funded their dreams of industrial enterprises out of their own incomes.

    Out of the profits earned by the successful entrepreneurial borrowers came the monetary means to pay back what had been borrowed plus the interest payments agreed to, to start up or to expand their private enterprises. This interest income earned by the banks both paid the interest owed to the depositors and increased the capital of the banks to develop their ability to lend to a growing number of enterprising borrowers.

    The increasing field of created and expanded private enterprises was made possible through the savings of “the workers,” themselves, and who thereby earned interest on their individual savings accounts, and through the plowing back of retained earnings into those enterprises by successful businessmen widened the number of businesses looking for workers to fill the growing number of jobs in the marketplace.

    At the same time, investment in more and better machines, tools and equipment in those industrial enterprises were increasing the productivity of each worker employment, helped to increase the wages worth paying each worker hired in conjunction with the increased demand of more employers competing for workers in their businesses.

    Of course, wages for all types of labor did not all rise at the same time and to the same degree. But looking over the decades of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, competitive and relatively free markets demonstrated the lie to all the naysayers like Karl Marx who claimed that “the workers” were doomed to poverty, destitution, and despair.  Competitive capitalism did and has been raising increasing portions of mankind from wretched subsistence and starvation to unimaginable ease, comfort and convenience that even the richest and most successfully plundering kings and conquerors of the past could never have conceived.

    Joseph Stiglitz and Asymmetric Information

    Joseph Stiglitz, needless to say, is not a Marxist or a socialist, and it would be unfair to in anyway suggest that he is. His own variation on the injustice of capitalism and its potential for exploitation is partly based on his theory of “asymmetric information” and how it enables private enterprisers to take advantage of consumers and workers in society. Indeed, this theory helped earn him the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2001.

    A core element in his theory is that individuals in the marketplace do not all possess the same type or degree of knowledge. Some people know things that others do not. And this “privileged” information can enable some to “exploit” others. For instance, the producer and marketer is likely to know far more about that product’s qualities, features and characteristics that he is offering on the market than most of the buyers possibly interested in purchasing it.

    By withholding or not fully informing the potential buyer about all of the qualities, features and characteristics of his good, he may succeed in creating a false impression that makes the consumer have a greater demand for it and be willing to pay a higher price for it than would be the case if that consumer knew as much about the good as the seller knows.

    Markets Integrate and Coordinate Decentralized Knowledge

    There is no doubt that in a system of division of labor there is an accompanying division of knowledge, but this is a theme in theories of the market process long ago explained by economists in the “Austrian” tradition, especially Friedrich A. Hayek, who also received a Nobel Prize in Economics in 1974.

    The Austrians have long emphasized that competition is a “discovery procedure” through which individuals find out things never known or imagined before. The peaceful rivalry of the marketplace creates the incentives for entrepreneurs to be unceasingly alert to profit opportunities to see possibilities that either others have missed or not thought of before. The unknown or barely perceived become seen and understood, and then taken advantage of in the form of new, better, and less expensive products offered to the consuming public.

    The purpose of competitive markets and price systems is precisely to provide a way to integrate and coordinate the dispersed and decentralized knowledge in any society possessing a degree of complexity.

    This same competitive market has also found ways to reduce and overcome the asymmetry of consumer versus seller knowledge concerning the qualities, features and characteristics of goods, as well, and thereby to reduce the potential and possibility of “exploiting” what the seller may know at the expense of the market buyers.

    The Meaning of Search Goods and Judging the Quality of Products

    In explaining how markets do this, economists sometimes distinguish between two types of goods offered and sold on the market: search goods and experience goods.

    Search goods are those that can be examined and judged by the potential buyer before a purchase is made. For instance, suppose that a supermarket advertises that perfectly ripened bananas are available and on sale in their store. A consumer can enter the supermarket and fairly reasonably judge whether the quality of the good matches what has been promised in the advertising before buying it.

    If examination shows that the bananas are either non-eatable green or over-ripened brown, the consumer can walk away without spending a penny on a product that has not met what was promised. By falsely or incorrectly advertising, or even unreasonably exaggerating in its advertising, the business runs the risk of not only losing that sale but the loss of its brand name reputation, threatening to see that consumer never return to that establishment again. Plus, that person can tell others what his “search” of the good came up with, potentially leading to those others not trusting that businesses advertising word without inspecting the good themselves.

    This creates a self-interested incentive on the part of such sellers to practice “true in advertising,” or suffer the loss of some their regular customers upon whose repeat business their long-term profitability is dependent.

    The Meaning of Experience Goods and Market Safeguards

    Experience goods are those goods whose qualities, features and characteristics cannot really be fully known and appreciated without using the product in question for a period of time. Think of an automobile; you can go for a test drive, but your own best judgment of its safety, reliability and handling cannot be really known without driving the car in various weather and traffic conditions over a period of time. Or think of a bed mattress; you sit down and bounce on it, or stretch out and lay down on it in the furniture showroom, but you cannot really know if it will give you a comfortable and restful sleep every night until you’ve gone to bed on it for a period of time.

    The same applies to many goods, such as household appliances, for instance. The competitive market’s response to this uncertain and imperfect knowledge on the part of potential buyers has been the seller and manufacture’s system of product warranties that enable the buyer to return the product over a period of time for his or her money back, or a replacement at no extra cost to the buyer.

    It is, again, in the seller’s own self-interest to make sure that the product is what has been promised and is reliable in its working order and performance. Once more, the seller and manufacturer run the risk of losing their brand name reputation concerning quality and trustworthiness. Plus, if a warranty has to be fulfilled it is the manufacturer or seller who is forced to eat the cost of replacing the unit returned due to malfunction or failure to match buyer expectation, thus cutting into his own profit margin.

    Market Uncertainty and Franchise Businesses

    But what about those situations in which concern about repeat business or brand name reputation do not seem to be as present? For instance, suppose you are traveling on business or vacation and are passing through some town you are highly unlikely ever to see again.

    You’re hungry for a meal or a place to stay for the night. How can you know about the quality of the meal in the local “Joe’s Greasy Spoon,” or the bedbug-free mattress in any of the rooms in the local “Bates Motel”?

    The market has provided consumer information about the qualities, features and characteristics of such products and services to overcome this inescapable imperfect knowledge in the form of chain stores and franchises. You may never eat or sleep again in that particular town, but you will likely eat and sleep away from home somewhere at sometime again in the future.

    The sight of the MacDonald’s “Golden Arches” or the sign for an IHOP (International House of Pancakes) anywhere, any place tells you the quality and variety of foods that you can have in any of their establishments, regardless of where its location in the United States or even the world. The same applies to seeing the sign for a Motel 6, or a Holiday Inn Express or an Embassy Suites, or a Hilton-family hotel.

    You may never again go to that particular MacDonald’s or Holiday Inn, but if you travel you may very well eat or spend the night at some other chain franchise of that company. And that is the repeat business and brand name reputation that is important to the “mother company.” Thus, each chain store and franchise is required to meet standards of quality and variety that enables the consumer to have a high degree of confidence and reduced knowledge uncertainty of what he or she is getting when they enter any of these establishments regardless of where it may be located.

    What makes this practice in the market consistently happen and successfully relied upon? Market competition and the self-interested profit motive.

    “Perfect Competition” versus the Competitive Process

    Professor Stiglitz sets up the straw man of what in economics is known as the “perfect competition” model. The presumption is that a market is only and truly “competitive” when it is filled with such a large number of sellers that each one is too small to influence the market price and in which each seller offers a product the quality of which is exactly the same ones sold by his competitors; and in which every buyer already knows all the same perfectly correct information as is known by all the sellers in those same markets.

    Friedrich Hayek demonstrated the essential fallacies in this argument exacting 70 years ago when he delivered a lecture on “The Meaning of Competition” on May 20, 1946 at Princeton University. He explained that the very nature of a truly competitive market is precisely one in which rivals are attempting to improve the qualities of the products they offer to consumers and try to devise ways to make their products at lower costs precisely to be able to afford to offer them at lower prices to buyers to attract business way from their competitors. That is what makes market competition a dynamic, never-ending process of improved and less expensive goods and services available for the members of any society.

    For economists like Joseph Stiglitz, trying to offer goods at prices different than your rivals or with qualities and characteristics differentiated from those sold by your competitors is a sign of “market failure,” of “imperfect” or “monopolistic” market practices. But for economists like Friedrich Hayek, such price and product rivalry and competition is the essential indication of the vibrancy of the competitive process at work.

    Market competition in Hayek’s sense of the concept does not need a large number of rivals to be “truly” competitive. What is required are no political or legal barriers that stand in the way of potential competitors either at home or from abroad. From the economic point-of-view the market encompasses the world, regardless of where those who runs governments may have drawn lines on a political map.

    Stiglitz’s “Market Failures” are Really Forms of Crony Capitalism

    And this gets to the crucial and essential error in Professor Stiglitz’s argument concerning the concentration of “monopoly” power in the marketplace, and any resulting “unjust” inequality of wealth.

    Every one of the examples that he lists as instances of such concentration of “market power” – finance and banking, cable television, health care, pharmaceuticals, agro-business – are all instances in which the competitive, free market has been interfered with by the paternalistic and regulatory hand of the government. It is not the market that has “failed” in these corners of the economy, but rather it is the presence and pervasiveness of the interventionist state.

    But this, too, is typical of market critics such as Professor Stiglitz. They deceptively call “market failures” instances not of competitive free markets but of “crony capitalism” under which special interests have successfully interacted with politicians and bureaucrats to rig the market for their own benefit at the expense of both consumers and potential competitors who are legally prevented or hindered from entering sectors of the economy where they would like to try to gain market share and earn profits by offering better and lower priced goods than their privileged rivals are offering to those consumers.

    Con Men Are Always with Us, Free Markets Constrain Them

    Are there con men, hucksters and cheats? Of course there are. They existed in ancient Athens just as they exist today. There are always people who will try to dishonestly get what others have, when doing it that way seems easier and less costly than through honest production and trade.

    The question is not whether human nature can be transformed to eliminate this aspect of human conduct. The question is, are their market institutions and incentives that can systemically reduce this type of behavior and, instead, generate more honest and properly informed human interactions?

    And the answer is, yes. In fact, most of these positive incentive mechanisms have emerged and evolved out of the competitive market process, itself. These “market solutions” to the “social problem” of asymmetric information were discovered by market participants themselves to be profitable ways of gaining consumer trust and confidence and business, without any government command or imposition. Plus, their discovery and practiced institutional forms could never have been fully anticipated or imagined in their detail before and separate from the competitive market processes that generated them.

    Once again, the “let-alone” principle of peaceful competitive market association has demonstrated itself to be superior to the presumption and arrogance of the governmental social engineer.

    Worker Exploitation has Its Source in Government Intervention

    Furthermore, if workers have been exploited in the past or present, and do not receive the full and proper value for the labor services they may render, this, too, has been the result of politically-sponsored or allowed “power” inside the market. Compulsory labor unions have manipulated and rigged labor markets, giving wage and work privileges and favors to some workers, but at the expense of other workers locked out of employment and income opportunities due to the “closed shop.”

    Government imposed minimum wage laws have priced some low and unskilled workers out of jobs leaving them unemployed and possibly permanent wards of the government’s welfare state programs. Anti-competition regulations and related market restrictions (including burdensome taxes on business) have reduced the private sector’s ability and incentives to create jobs and invest in ways that raise the value of workers’ output over time.

    If workers are “exploited” in the modern world, Professor Stiglitz should look at the very interventionist policies that he proposes and defends. They are the primary cause of the very conditions and injustices that he deplores, including the greater degrees of material inequality than would or need exist, if only the regulating and paternalistic state they he so much desires and admires were to get out of the way of the free market competitive process.

  • China Has Quietly Bailed Out Over $220 Billion In Bad Debt In The Past 2 Months

    Two months ago we were amazed to read that according to the latest “deus ex machina” proposed by the PBOC, China would “sweep away” trillions in bad loans by equitizing them in the form of debt-for-equity exchanges. This is how we tried to explain this unprecedented move on March 10 when Reuters first hinted it was coming:

    This proposal entails nothing short of a nationalization on a grand scale, one which gives China’s impaired commercial banks – all of which are implicitly state controlled – the “equity keys” to the companies to which they have given secured loans, loans which are no longer performing because the underlying assets are clearly impaired, and where the cash flow generated can’t even cover the interest payments.

     

    In effect, the PBOC is proposing the biggest debt-for-equity swap ever seen. What it also means is that since the secured lender, which is at the top of the capital structure will drop all the way down, it wipes out the existing equity and unsecured debt, and make the banks the new equity owners, and as such China’s commercial banks will no longer be entitled to interest payments or security collateral on their now-equity investment. Finally, while this move does free up loss reserves, it essentially strips banks of their security and asset protection which they enjoyed as secured lenders.

     

    So why is China doing this? By equitizing trillions in bad loans, it frees up the corporate balance sheets to layer on fresh trillions in bad debt, the same debt that pushed these zombie companies into insolvency to begin with.

     

    What this grand equitization does not do, is make the underlying business any more profitable or viable: after all the loans are bad because the companies no longer can generate even the required cash interest payment – as a result of China’s unprecedented excess capacity and low commodity prices which prevent corporate viability. It has little to do with their current balance sheet.

     

    That, however, is irrelevant to the PBOC which is hoping that by taking this step it can magically eliminate trilliions in NPL from commercial bank balance sheets in what is not only the biggest equitization in history, but also the biggest diversion since David Copperfield made the statue of liberty disappear, as instead of keeping the bad loans on the asset side as NPLs, thus assuring at least some recoveries, the banks are crammed down and when the next NPL wave hits, their exposure will be fully wiped out as mere equity stakeholders.

    So why are banks agreeing to this? Because they know that as quasi (and not so quasi) state-owned enterprises, China’s commercial banks are wards of the state and when the ultimate impairment wave hits and banks have to write down trillions in “equity investments”, Beijiing will promptly bail them out. Essentially, in one simple move, Beijing is about to “guarantee” trillions in insolvent Chinese debt.

     

    In short, what the PBOC has proposed is the biggest “shadow nationalization” in history, one which will convert trillions in bad loans in insolvent enterprises into trillions in equity investments in the same enterprises, however without any new money actually coming in! Which means it will be up to new credit investors to prop up these failing businesses for a few more quarters before the reorganized equity also has to be wiped out.

    We concluded as follows: “While this is surely “good” news for the very short run, as it allows the worst of the worst in China’s insolvent corporate sector to issue even more debt, in the longer run it means that China’s total debt to GDP, which is already at 350% is about to surpass Japan’s gargantuan 400% within a year if not sooner.”

    It also means much more deflation, because Chinese corporations which were adding to China’s massive excess capacity bubble and which would have otherwise gone out of business, will remains in business as they no longer have to worry about funding interest (after being effectively nationalized by the state), and instead will pump output at historical levels.

    * * *

    To be sure, we did not think much more of this proposed grand nationalization in the past two months, because virtually everyone had spoken up against it: from pundits to analysts, even the media figured out what a naive plan this was.

    And then today we learned that not only was China going through with this epic debt-for-equity swap, but it has already equitized over $220 billion in non-performing loans.

    Note: these are not traditional, Chapter 11 prepacks where the debt is converted into equity and the debt holder gets the keys to the company. In this case, it is the Chinese government itself which indirectly via state-owned banks, has become the de facto owner of countless companies.

    As the FT reports:

    “Beijing has stepped up its battle against bad debt in China’s banking system, with a state-led debt-for-equity scheme surging in value by about $100bn in the past two months alone. The government-led programme, which forces banks to write off bad debt in exchange for equity in ailing companies, soared in value to hit more than $220bn by the end of April, up from about $120bn at the start of March, according to data from Wind Information.”

    As we said two months ago, and as the FT now confirms, this is nothing short of a state-led bailout of virtually every troubled, overindebted industry.

    The latest figures for the debt-to-equity swap, and a debt-to-bonds swap initiated last year, show a subtle bailout is already under way. “One can argue the government-led recapitalisation is already happening in an atypical way and thus reducing the need for recapitalisation in its written sense,” said Liao Qiang, director of financial institutions at S&P Global Ratings in Beijing.

    Sorry Liao, but ever since the Global Financial Crisis, recapitalization in the “written sense” has meant a direct or indirect taxpayer funded bailout of the most insolvent sector. And that is precisely what China is doing.

    To be sure, Beijing’s debt-to-equity strategy should be differentiated from the debt-to-bonds plan unveiled last year: under the latter program, up to Rmb4tn ($612bn) had been approved in 2015 for the debt-to-bonds swap, which has seen state-controlled banks trade short-term loans to companies connected to local governments in exchange for bonds with much longer maturities. The program relieved the pressure on local governments were that were forced to take out bank loans to proceed with public works projects in the absence of municipal bond markets.

    However, the debt-to-equity project has received far less enthusiasm from analysts, who say that coercing banks to become stakeholders in companies that could not pay back loans will further weigh down profits this year. Instead of underpinning stability at banks, Mr Liao says the efforts undermine it.

    The programmes are just two fronts in Beijing’s battle against bad debt.  A third one was revealed recently when China started repackaging its massive NPLs in the form securitizations. As the FT writes, “the government is also reopening the market for securitising bad debt with two deals worth Rmb534m due this month. The efforts have even gone online, with debt managers hawking off bad loans on China’s biggest online retail site.”

    The good news for China is that by swapping one bad asset into another, it may have confused the market long enough to buy a few quarters of time.

    The bad news is that, as we first reported last November citing Fitch calculations, China’s bad debt “neutron bomb” is roughly 20% of total bank loans. Last week, CLSA’s Frarncis Cheung came up with his own calculation of China’s NPL program which he see as anywhere between 15% and 19%. Here is his analysis:

    As analysts are now competing to come up with estimates of the real level of stressed loans in the China banking system and related shadow finance cycles, a good starting point can be found in the IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report published in April. This, based on a  sample of 2,871 listed and unlisted nonfinancial Chinese companies, calculates that 15.5% of total commercial bank loans to the corporate sector are “potentially at risk”. This debt-at-risk ratio is defined as having an interest coverage ratio (EBITDA dividend by interest expenses) of below one. Assuming a 60% loss ratio, the IMF puts potential bank losses at 7% of GDP, a level which it still considers as “manageable” while noting that for this to remain the case “prompt action” to address excess capacity and the like needs to occur.


    All this is perfectly reasonable. Still Francis Cheung makes the valid point in his report that the IMF has relaxed its criteria from when a similar exercise was done in 2014. Then the debt-atrisk estimate was done using an interest coverage ratio of less than 2x. Now it is 1x. If the same 2x threshold was employed in 2015 the debt-at-risk estimate would rise to 28% of total corporate loans. Meanwhile, Cheung estimates, using the latest listed A-share company data for 2015, China’s bad-debt ratio or NPL ratio at 15-19% based on companies’ interest coverage and debt sustainability.

    In short, whether China’s NPL are 15%, 19% or even 28% of total debt, these are absolutely gargantuan amounts – recall that China will report roughly $35 trillion in bank assets this quarter.

     

    To believe that any government, even that of China, will be able to cover up what is indeed the “neutron bomb” (as we first dubbed it) under the entire Chinese financial system with some rhetorical sleight of hand, and shifting non-performing assets from one bucket into another without actually addressing the underlying issue, namely collapsing of cash flow, is the height of stupidity and arrogance. Which probably explains why so many sellside banks see this as a viable plan.

  • These Americans Are Preparing For War With Their Own Government

    During the Oregon standoff, where a group of US citizens calling themselves the Citizens for Constitutional Freedom, seized control of a federal wildlife refuge in protest of harsh sentences being given to members of a ranching family for allegedly allowing fires set on their property to spread on to federal land, Ron Paul posed a question: Is the event isolated, or a sign of things to come?

    It is becoming increasingly apparent that the Oregon standoff was the latter.

    As the Washington Post writes, there is a significant movement among US citizens that are demanding that the federal government adhere to the Constitution, and stop what they see as systematic abuse of land rights, gun rights, freedom of speech and other liberties.

    One example of this movement is a group in Oregon that calls itself the Central Oregon Constitutional Guard. The group refers to themselves as patriots, and is made up of people from all walks of life. The organization describes itself as a “defensive unit against all enemies foreign and domestic”, mainly because they believe the government is capable of unprovoked aggression against its own people.

    Deep in the heart of a vast U.S. military training ground, surrounded by spent shotgun shells and juniper trees blasted to shreds, the Central Oregon Constitutional Guard was conducting its weekly firearms training.

     

    “The intent is to be able to work together and defend ourselves if we need to,” said Soper, 40, a building contractor who is an emerging leader in a growing national movement rooted in distrust of the federal government, one that increasingly finds itself in armed conflicts with authorities.

     

    Those in the movement call themselves patriots, demanding that the federal government adhere to the Constitution and stop what they see as systematic abuse of land rights, gun rights, freedom of speech and other liberties.

     

    Law enforcement officials call them dangerous, delusional and sometimes violent, and say that their numbers are growing amid a wave of anger at the government that has been gaining strength since 2008, a surge that coincided with the election of the first black U.S. president and a crippling economic recession.

     

    Soper started his group, which consists of about 30 men, women and children from a handful of families, two years ago as a “defensive unit” against “all enemies foreign and domestic.” Mainly, he’s talking about the federal government, which he thinks is capable of unprovoked aggression against its own people.

     

    The group’s members are drywallers and flooring contractors, nurses and painters and high school students, who stockpile supplies, practice survival skills and “basic infantry” tactics, learn how to treat combat injuries, study the Constitution and train with their concealed handguns and combat-style rifles.

     

    “It doesn’t say in our Constitution that you can’t stand up and defend yourself,” Soper said. “We’ve let the government step over the line and rule us, and that was never the intent of this country.”

    Law enforcement officials and watchdog groups are branding such organizations as anti-government extremists of course, and even trying to marginalize the groups by giving them nicknames such as “Y’all Qaeda” and “Vanilla Isis”, and the groups have even earned the designation of “domestic terrorists.” Despite the attempts to downplay the groups, the number of like minded organizations has grown from 150 in 2008 to about 1,000 now, and estimates peg the number of supporters in the hundreds of thousands. The movement had been emboldened by the 2014 standoff at Cliven Bundy’s ranch in Nevada, where federal agents faced off with hundreds of armed supporters of Bundy in a dispute over the rancher’s refusal to pay fees to graze his cattle on federal land – the agents eventually stood down.

    Law enforcement officials and the watchdog groups that track the self-styled “patriot” groups call them anti-government extremists, militias, armed militants or even domestic terrorists. Some opponents of the largely white and rural groups have made fun by calling them “Y’all Qaeda” or “Vanilla ISIS.”

     

    Mark Potok of the Southern Poverty Law Center, which monitors extremism, said there were about 150 such groups in 2008 and about 1,000 now. Potok and other analysts, including law enforcement officials who track the groups, said their supporters number in the hundreds of thousands, counting people who signal their support in more passive ways, such as following the groups on social media. The Facebook page of the Oath Keepers, a group of former members of police forces and the military, for example, has more than 525,000 “likes.”

     

    President Obama’s progressive policies and the tough economic times have inflamed anti-government anger, the same vein of rage into which Donald Trump has tapped during his Republican presidential campaign, said Potok and Mark Pitcavage, who works with the Anti-Defamation League and has monitored extremism for 20 years.

     

    Much of the movement traces its roots to the deadly 1990s confrontations between civilians and federal agents at Ruby Ridge, Idaho, and in Waco, Tex., that resulted in the deaths of as many as 90. Timothy Mc­Veigh cited both events before he was executed for the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing that killed 168 people, and said he had deliberately chosen a building housing federal government agencies.

     

    Now a “Second Wave” is spreading across the country, especially in the West, fueled by the Internet and social media. J.J. MacNab, an author and George Washington University researcher who specializes in extremism, said social media has allowed individuals or small groups such as Soper’s to become far more influential than in the 1990s, when the groups would spread their message through meetings at local diners and via faxes.

     

    The movement received a huge boost from the 2014 standoff at Cliven Bundy’s ranch in Nevada, where federal agents and hundreds of armed supporters of Bundy faced off in a dispute over the rancher’s refusal to pay fees to graze his cattle on federal land.

     

    When federal agents backed down rather than risk a bloody clash, Bundy’s supporters claimed victory and were emboldened to stage similar armed face-offs last year at gold mines in Oregon and Montana.

    The latest confrontation that has taken place was in Burns, Oregon, where armed occupiers, led by Cliven Bundy’s sons, took over the headquarters building of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge. Ultimately, the standoff ended with multiple arrests, and even the death of the group spokesman Robert “LaVoy” Finicum, who was shot by the FBI after an incident at a roadblock in the area. BJ Soper, founder of the Central Oregon Constitutional Guard says he tries to be the calming voice of the growing movement, knowing there are many hot heads that fall within its ranks; a voice clearly much needed. After the standoff at the wildlife refuge, two members splintered off and went on to kill two police officers in Las Vegas, leaving a note saying “This is the beginning of the revolution.”

    In January, dozens of armed occupiers, led by Bundy’s sons Ammon and Ryan, took over the headquarters buildings of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge near rural Burns, Ore., an action that resulted in the death of Robert “LaVoy” Finicum, an occupier who was shot by state troopers.

     

    Soper has been in the middle of all of it. He says he has tried to be a more moderate voice in a movement best known for its hotheads. He spent a month living in his RV at Burns, trying to talk the occupiers into standing down.

    Two days after Soper’s last visit to the refuge, Finicum was killed in an operation in which the Bundys were arrested. An independent local investigation concluded that the shooting was justified, although the U.S. Justice Department is investigating several FBI agents for possible misconduct. Soper considers Finicum’s death “murder.”

     

    That kind of talk is “a big deal,” said Stephanie Douglas, who retired in 2013 as the FBI’s top official overseeing foreign and domestic counterterrorism programs. “Free speech doesn’t make you a terrorist just because you disagree with the government. But if you start espousing violence and radicalizing your own people toward a violent act, the federal government is going to take notice.”

     

    Shortly after the Bundy ranch confrontation, two of Bundy’s supporters who had been at the ranch, Jerad and Amanda Miller, killed two police officers and a civilian and also died in a Las Vegas shooting rampage. Police said the couple left a note on the body of one the officers they had shot point-blank.

     

    It said: “This is the beginning of the revolution.

     

    BJ Soper has described his reasons to to start the Central Oregon Constitutional Guard as being simply that he used to be oblivious to everything that was going on, but after the Bundy Ranch incident, he decided to get more involved and make a difference. Soper’s understandable skepticism about the government gets rather intense, taking views quite outside the norm, entertaining that the government had a hand in 9/11, that the government is mandating vaccines that cause autism, and that the United Nations wants to reduce global population through a program called Agenda 21. All of which spurred Soper’s desire to create the group, and prepare his family for any possible scenario through weapons training and emergency food storage.

    “I lived like 90 percent of Americans, oblivious to everything that was going on, from the time I was 18 until the Bundy Ranch happened,” he said. “I just said, ‘I can’t sit back and do nothing. I’ve got to get involved.’ I feel responsible for where we’re at, because I’ve done nothing my entire life.”

    His response was to start his Central Oregon Constitutional Guard, which he said was partly to protect against the government, but partly a way to get back to a simpler America.

     

    “As a kid, life was easy,” he says on the group’s website. “No worries. Very little threats. I would ride my bike around all over the neighborhood for hours on end. Play with friends and show back up for dinner without worry.”

     

    Critics say such talk is naive nostalgia for a 1950s America that wasn’t ever really such a homespun paradise in the first place. And they say the groups that have sprung up in response are far more dangerous than Soper and others want to make them seem.

     

    “The idea that he needs to face down the government with weapons I think is really, really wrong,” Potok said. “They don’t really say that, but I think that is what is right under the surface.”

     

    Soper’s research also led him to some of the Internet’s favorite conspiracy theories, including a purported U.N. plot to impose “One World Government.” And Soper, like most in the patriot movement, became a believer.

     

    He suspects that the United Nations, through a program called Agenda 21, wants to reduce the global population from 7 billion to fewer than 1 billion. He said the federal government may be promoting abortions overseas as part of that plot, and also may be deliberately mandating childhood vaccines designed to cause autism because autistic adults are less likely to have children.

     

    Soper said he could not rule out the possibility that the U.S. government was behind the 9/11 attacks. He suspects that the government and the “medical community” have had a cancer cure for years but won’t release it because cancer treatment is too profitable for pharmaceutical companies.

     

    “I’m not saying that’s the case,” he said, “but I like to look at all avenues.”

     

    Soper knows those ideas sound crazy to many people, but, he said with a laugh, “It shows I just don’t trust my government.”

    Alex McNeely, a 25 year old drywaller found the patriot group online, and joined the group to feel that he was helping defend the country. And in a textbook example of how words can cause many to take action, echoed the sentiment of many conservative pundits who claim Obama is a socialist who is trying to fundamentally change America. The group is conservative, and generally supports Trump, although anyone other than Hillary would suffice. One of the men indicted by the Bundy ranch case is Gerald DeLemus, who was New Hampshire co-chair of Veterans for Trump and was named by the Trump campaign as a New Hampshire alternate delegate to the Republican National Convention In Cleveland.

    “There’s this D.C. mentality that if you stand up for your rights, you’re dangerous and anti-government,” said McNeely, who has an AK-47 assault rifle tattooed on his forearm. “But if I’m denied my rights, what else can I do? Am I just going to stand there and take it, or am I going to do something?”

     

    In the Constitutional Guard, McNeely said, “I feel what we do is stand up for people who don’t have the means to stand up for themselves. I have an overwhelming desire to help people.”

     

    McNeely considered joining the military when he graduated from high school, but he turned 18 the month Obama was elected in 2008, and, because of Obama’s “socialist” policies, “I wasn’t going to accept him as my commander in chief.”

     

    “I don’t like that he wants to fundamentally change America,” McNeely said.

     

    The group members are conservatives, do not like former secretary of state Hillary Clinton and generally support Donald Trump. Soper said he would prefer just about anyone over Clinton but would not cast a vote for president this year. He said he thinks casting his vote is “a waste of time” because Oregon’s politics are dominated by Democrats.

    Everyone in the group keeps 30 days worth of food and emergency supplies on hand, and group members learn gardening and raising livestock. They camp, and learn survival tactics, including how to fashion a shelter, find food and water, and make a fire. The group is preparing for anything, and that includes economic collapse.

    “I don’t know that it’s all that far-fetched that we have an economic collapse,” he said. “The dollar is a pretty scary investment anymore. China’s buying up all the gold. When people get hungry and thirsty and can’t feed themselves, they get desperate.”

    Soper reiterates every chance that he gets that he does not want violence, however in his reality, he believes that if common sense doesn’t get restored in the government, people will get hurt.

    “The last thing I want is violence” Soper said. “But I hope they see that if we continue down this path, we’re going to have more bloodshed in this country.”

    As he writes his sheriff upon learning of the news that more people had been arrested in connection with the 2014 standoff at the Bundy Ranch, Soper airs his concerns, and ends the letter in a very dramatic fashion:

    “People are being detained without due process” he said. “These are not our American values.”

     

    “I pray we find some sense of it again, otherwise a very dark future awaits us, and it is not very far down the road.” Sheriff, he said, “People are going to die.

     

    As America becomes even more fragmented, more fractured, and more polarized, and, as both the GOP and Democratic primaries have shown, with ever more people calling for true change to take place, the establishment may be under pressure to finally act for change, even if the change is at first, very painful – something 8 years of relentless central bank intervention has desperately tried to prevent. If the government chooses not to act, a violent future may await America as the people themselves rise up once more to recreate what was once the freest and most admired nation on earth.

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Today’s News 22nd May 2016

  • WWIII? A "Hybrid Geo-Financial War" Between NATO and Russia Is Dangerously Escalating

    Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

    Russia is preparing for war against the West.

    Putin is being urged to do so because the U.S. and NATO have been preparing for war themselves.

    Syria and Ukraine have just been warm ups. The real thing could be around the corner, and other proxy flashpoints are ready to line up.

    The rising tensions for military conflict are sharply complicated by the stealthier financial war that is nonetheless taking a serious toll across the globe, in particular as collapsing oil prices put incredible pressure on those regimes who have cast a big social benefits net financed primarily by $100/barrel oil.

    As SHTF previously reported, that made Venezuela the most vulnerable, and it is plain today that the oil rich nation is collapsing. However, the manipulation of these prices was also meant to put pressure on Russia (as well as other countries)… while the attempt to undercut Russian natural gas by taking over Ukraine and have NATO supply gas to Europe instead of Russia has so far failed.

    It is a sophisticated geopolitical gamble that perhaps no one is winning, apart from who manages not to topple over.

    ww3-horizon

    A detailed, but nonetheless alarming article by Alastair Crooke reports that there is significant pressure on Putin from other Russian leaders to take a hard line in the days ahead.

    via the Huffington Post:

    Putin carries, at one end of his balancing pole, the various elites more oriented toward the West and the “Washington Consensus“ and, at the pole’s other end, those concerned that Russia faces both a real military threat from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and a hybrid geo-financial war as well. He is being pressed to come down on the side of the latter, and to pry the grip of the former from the levers of economic power that they still tightly hold.

     

    In short, the issue coming to a head in the Kremlin is whether Russia is sufficiently prepared for further Western efforts to ensure it does not impede or rival American hegemony. Can Russia sustain a geo-financial assault, if one were to be launched? And is such a threat real or mere Western posturing for other ends?

     

    What is so important is that if these events are misread in the West, which is already primed to see any Russian defensive act as offensive and aggressive, the ground will already have been laid for escalation. We already had the first war to push back against NATO in Georgia. The second pushback war is ongoing in Ukraine. What might be the consequences to a third?

     

    In mid-April, General Alexander Bastrykin, the head of Russia’s Investigative Committee (a sort of super attorney general, as Cohen describes it), wrote that Russia — its role in Syria notwithstanding — is militarily ill prepared to face a new war either at home or abroad, and that the economy is in a bad way, too. Russia, furthermore, is equally ill prepared to withstand a geo-financial war. He goes on to say that the West is preparing for war against Russia and that Russia’s leadership does not appear to be aware of or alert to the danger the country faces.

     

    […] A retired Russian general entered the fray to confirm that the West is indeed preparing for war — he pointed to NATO deployments in the Baltics, the Black Sea and Poland, among other places — and underlines again the unpreparedness of the Russian military to face this threat. “This is a heavy indictment of Putin,” Cohen says of the revelations from this analysis. “It is now out in the open.”

     

    […]

     

    The government’s economic policy is being criticized. The opposing faction wants to see an immediate mobilization of the military and the economy for war, conventional or hybrid. This is not about wanting Putin ousted; it is about pushing him to wield the knife — and to cut deeply.

    There is every reason to think that the clashing interests of NATO and Russia can and will spark more flashpoints across the map and around the arc that generally surrounds the former Soviet empire, which the United States hopes to contain in order to maintain its own crumbling empire.

    While President Obama, now officially the president to oversee the longest period of war (albeit somewhat contracted), may be reluctant to pursue in form of open conflict with Russia, a president like Hillary Clinton may be all-too willing to do so. She has already called in recent days for an escalated ‘war against ISIS,’ which handily also gives an open ended pretext to challenge NATO-Russian conflict points wherever they might appear.

    Donald Trump’s positions here are as yet unclear, but he is beginning to surround himself with the same type of advisers – including Henry Kissinger –  that have brought us to this point.

    With economic decline and a definite fatigue for war, Americans face an end of the dollar as the world currency standard and an era where the BRICS nations, and in particular the militaries of Russia and China, pose an existential threat to the world that the U.S. and Britain carved out in the WWII era and which they essentially won away from the Soviets by the end of the Cold War.

    These waxing and waning empires are dangerous as their vulnerabilities and short-comings become exposed, and their territories challenged.

    That fact that Putin is being prodded from within Russia to be less diplomatic and more aggressive in posturing for war is downright unsettling. Many of our most dangerous American leaders are all-too willing to poke the bear and evoke a reaction.

    Ukraine and Syria, as well as the Georgian conflict before it in 2008, prove that the U.S. will continue waging war and posturing for global domination in spite of the lack of a coherent narrative (but there’s ISIS), or any convincing pretext for sending troops and sponsoring proxy armies.

    The American people are sick of war, but the misleaders in Washington are eager enough to reinvigorate their sense of power and entitlement to control the affairs here and abroad. After all, war – in a sick kind of way – is good for the economy, and a big one means a mandate of emergency powers and a period of unquestioning obedience from the domestic population.

    The threat is all-too real, and a serious provocation, like the false flag attacks that have sparked most of the wars in the past, could be on the horizon.

    That all basically points to WWIII… or at least a full second Cold War. It could be a long way off, but the sense is that the scent is in the air.

  • Stock Share Buybacks Now Bought Out — American Enterprise in Decline

    Published originally on The Great Recession Blog

    by David Haggith

     

    I have pointed out in previous articles how most of the growth in stocks over the past few years has been due to stock share buybacks. Without this hideous (and at one time illegal) practice, there would have been no bull market over the last few years.

    That’s right. Research from no other place than Wall Street, itself, indicates that almost all of the returns since 2009 have been due to stock share buybacks!

     

    Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist and perma-bull at Charles Schwab, recently acknowledged that “… there has not been a dollar added to the U.S. stock market since the end of the financial crisis by retail investors and pension funds….” Since every buyer has a seller (and vice versa), what group or groups had enough of a buying presence to push the S&P 500 14.2% off of the February closing lows? Corporations. (Seeking Alpha)

     

    Most people assume what has kept the market afloat this year after sinking 11% at the start of the year was a mixture of better news out of China, oil prices stabilizing, and indications that the Fed won’t raise rates as much as thought. But the real thing bouying the market could be something else: Stock buybacks…. The stock buybacks come at a time when major investors including individuals, foreign investors, and pension funds have been selling off their shares, according to a note from Goldman Sachs, amid market volatility and weak oil prices. (Fortune)

     

    Stock share buybacks may be winding down

     

    But you cannot do share buybacks forever. Companies have been using profits and loading up on debt to make these share buybacks for so long that the law of diminishing returns is kicking in here, too.

    First, it is kicking in because companies are nearing the end of their capacity to keep eating themselves. Earnings have been falling while debt has been stacking up, and so the capacity just isn’t there any more. (And I mean even the doctored earnings — as almost all major corporations have moved away from GAAP reporting policies — have been falling badly.)

    Secondly, buybacks have gone insane to the point where the practice is even starting to reek of death to market bulls who are growing wary of them.

    Over the past five weeks, the value of shares bought back has fallen 42% (yoy). The number of scheduled buybacks has fallen off substantially this year (35% below last year’s pace). So, we can anticipate the market will lose some of the hot air that once kept it aloft.

     

     

    Here are two confusing headlines for you, released this week within 24 hours of each other: First comes Bloomberg’s “Bull Market Losing Biggest Ally as Buybacks Fall Most Since 2009.” Ah, but then came the Financial Times, with “US companies step up share buybacks in the first quarter of 2016….” At face value this would seem difficult. However, Bloomberg and the FT are in fact measuring two different things. Bloomberg has been looking at buyback announcements so far in 2016…. The FT meanwhile has been looking at preliminary numbers for the first quarter from S&P/Dow Jones indexes. These suggest that US buybacks were actually up 20% in this year’s first quarter, compared to the old year’s last…. So, what’s the upshot? …As David Lefkowitz, senior equity strategist at UBS, puts it: “earnings per share were down around 6% in the first quarter so it’s not terribly surprising that there should be a slowdown in buyback announcements.” He stressed however that buyback announcements are just that – announcements not activity. He also pointed out that the oil sector’s early-year wrestle with ever-lower crude prices, and profit worries at the major banks, have left corporate America with a lot less cash to flash…. Corporate buybacks may not continue at the pace we’ve seen since about 2011, but it seems unlikely that they’re going to fade away either. (News.Markets)

     

    In other words, leftover buybacks from last year’s announcements are still unfolding, but announcements of additional buybacks are diminishing quickly as corporate cash drops.

     

    Stock share buybacks have transformed America into the Alzheimer’s ward of enterprise

     

    We are now a nation full of companies with much bigger piles of debt and much less capacity to keep propping up their share prices with buybacks because those companies are rotting from within. Buybacks syphoned money away from capital expansion and research and development in order to deliver candy to investors now at the cost of crippling the company down the road.

    All of that was smiled upon (until now) by Wall Street and government for saving the day while losing the decade. Yes, a decade of potential recovery has been consumed by milking corporations dry, and there will be hell to pay as a result of this self-consuming greed.

    Former Republican presidential candidate, Carly Fiorina, championed this kind of corporate management during her stint at Hewlett-Packard until the Crowned Executive Officer was forced off her throne. During her brief reign, HP bought back $14 billion of stocks, which was more than its entire profits during that same period ($12 billion).

    That was total self-cannibalism, as during that time HP practically eliminated research and development, caving in to the idea that it was no longer capable of innovation and dominance in the consumer electronic field that it had long dominated. They gave up and walked away from their staple market of personal computers and home printers. Then they rejigged this plan into severing off separate companies. Contrasting this to Apple, can you even think of the last thing HP invented? Can you even remember the last thing that someone else invented that HP successfully produced and popularized?

    Because of her great accomplishment at HP, Fiorina believed she was qualified to become president of the United States. Having successfully gotten rid of her, did HP learn anything? Of course not. Her successor tripled down on all of this, buying back $43 billion in shares on $36 billion in profits! Following him, Leo Apotheker did the same thing, buying back nearly a billion dollars in stock every month of his brief eleven-month reign. This is a company that knows how to eat itself one leg at a time.

     

    “HP was the poster child of an innovative enterprise that retained profits and reinvested in the productive capabilities of employees. Since 1999, however, it has been destroying itself by downsizing its labor force and distributing its profits to shareholders….” HP declined to comment. (Reuters)

     

    And this is the new corporate norm for America. Last year, corporations spent almost a trillion dollars on share buybacks and dividends, even though it was largely a year of declining profits. Maybe I should say because it was a year of declining profits. So, they weren’t doing it because they had the money to spend. Like HP, many spent money they didn’t earn.

    That’s what you do when your business stinks so bad no one wants your stock because you have started to smell like the toe fungus and old urine that odorizes a bad nursing home. When the company is selling its own limbs on the meat market, it might not be in the healthiest of shape.

    When profits are in perpetual decline, you cover the stink of your own slow death with the sweet smell of candy. You throw grain (dividends) to the market bulls to get them to gather.

     

    What have stock buybacks gotten us?

     

    No wonder corporate stock buybacks were illegal until Reagan changed that during his tenure of deregulation. Yes, that deregulation did wonders for the stock market for a long time. It’s amazing how rich shareholders can become (especially the board members and CEOs) when they dine for years on their own company. It’s also amazing how rich you can become when no one is paying for the largess because it is bought on credit.

    However, greed and self-delusion among America’s corporate leaders has finally reached the zenith that comes just before self-annihilation. That is what happens when you get carried away with taking the regulations off of avaricious activity. Greed gets bolder and bolder as it explores the outer limits of its success. Evil contains the seeds of its own destruction. It always reaches too far.

    Responsible use of credit buys innovation (research and development) or production expansion for the future. Greedy and irresponsible use buys profit sharing for the present when profits are down. That lack of rigorous self-discipline is the new American leadership norm.

    For all of this, corporate bosses get bigger and bigger pay and eventually rise to become presidential candidates. That’s because they are best suited to run a country that advocates this kind of business by stripping away the laws that once governed such greed. Those laws were created because past experience taught us that humans couldn’t be trusted to act in the company’s (and the nation’s) long-term best interest, instead of their own immediate self-interest. Left on their own, many would reap and run. We always forget the lessons of the past, so we ditch those laws when they seem to restraining our progress.

    However, the buybacks aren’t yielding the returns they once were, and the corporations have already taken on a load of debt for past buybacks that is even threatening the credit rating of some. Earnings have declined steadily as money spent on building for the future has dropped dramatically. It looks like the golden years when companies buy themselves are winding down, and we shall all convalesce together.

     

    International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) is a poster child for questionable buybacks…. Over five years, IBM bought back $59.1 billion in common shares, while its stock returned only 5%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 returned 81%…. There have been plenty of solid arguments that IBM could have made much better use of that money by investing in its business. After all, the company’s annual sales have declined 24% over the past five years, while its earnings have dropped 16%. (MarketWatch)

     

    With so many American corporations on their sickbeds, it’s a good thing we have Obamacare.

  • Visualizing 200 Years Of US Immigration

    While the common narrative is now that Donald Trump is dividing the United States along racial lines, it would appear that 200 years of widespread immigration (some more integrative and some less) – as the following stunning animated graphic shows – the proverbial melting pot, after 8 years of an African-American president, during which black inequality has worsened dramatically, is boiling over by its own volition.

    Here is everyone who has emigrated to the United States since 1820 (1 dot = 10,000 people)

    Full interactive version here at MetroCosm.com

     

    And after 200 years, this is what America has become…

  • "Government Ain't Fixable But It Will Correct!"

    Via Monty Pelerin's World,

    As the next Presidential election nears, optimism regarding candidates and political parties ebbs and flows. Voters like to believe their candidate sees the problems and will fix them. This fundamental belief drives voting. But what if it isn’t true? What if government ain’t fixable? Or can’t be changed? What then?

    Government Ain’t Fixable and People Are Sensing It

    charlie_brown_lucy_football-thumb-400x344-441711

    The public increasingly recognizes that the opportunity to choose between two candidates is not working very well. The election process allows for a peaceful transfer of power but if the only change is in the the names and placeholders that media refer to as “leaders” But government continues to grow, become more expensive, more intrusive, less responsive and more burdensome. That is the way of government in this country for the half century I have been paying attention.

    The quadrennial event that is the Presidential election cycle is akin to Charlie Brown, Lucy and the football. Voters play the role of the hapless Charlie Brown. Lucy represents the political class and the football plays the role of campaign promises. The football is never kicked, altered or used. Yet hapless Charlie falls for the promise again and again.

    This election seems different. The public is beginning to understand the game. Some are rebelling. How else does one explain the popularity of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders? H. L. Mencken’s wisdom regarding democracy, politics  and politicians is gaining followers. Mencken’s litany of disgust is too prolific to deal with other than to suggest that the public may be realizing that:

    Every election is a sort of advance auction sale of stolen goods.

    Increasing numbers understand this observation and that they are the victims in the game.

    Government is too large and entrenched to be changed by elections. The political establishment considers themselves to be privileged and pretends to like and tolerate citizens. The truth is that the citizenry are nothing more than a commodity to the rulers. Their votes and pocketbooks are mined so that political lifestyles can be continued.

    This reality is becoming apparent to more and more citizens who recognize the government as Lucy and themselves as Charlie Brown. The football is always promised but never delivered. The story of this election is the number of people dissatisfied with Lucy and her behavior. In a sense this election is beginning to look like a protest similar to the Boston Harbor tea party. It is likely a precedent that will not directly change anything,  although the retrospective of history may recognize it as the first shot fired in the coming rebellion against oppressive government.

     

    Government Will Correct

    No one can fix government. Even if Donald Trump or Hillary/Bern were the best managers in the world, they could only have a marginal impact even if they were inclined.

    Government is too far gone and too deeply entrenched. It is a gigantic blob immune to common sense, cost control or the will of the citizens it pretends to serve. People are expected to serve it, a complete contradiction of the stated goal of the Founders. It grows and enriches itself (and its members) simply because it can.  It is no different from an unaccountable criminal enterprise, exempting itself from laws it imposes on others. In point of fact, it is less efficient than organized crime which must generate a profit under less than ideal circumstances. Most Mafia-run businesses provide a service or value to their customers in excess of what it costs. Government has no need to do so and is especially ineffective and inefficient.

    Government is Leviathan. It looks out for itself and no one person or small group can alter that condition. Government will correct, but not willingly. Today it is at the point where the plant from Little Shop of Horrors was in this clip:

    The conflicted Seymour represents the citizens of this country, subject to increasing demands and monetary contributions. Both the plant and the government demand contributions while provide little service or benefits in return. Government is as addicted to more every bit as much as the demanding plant. It knows no other way other than to spend to continue its scam.

    Government ain’t fixable but it will correct because there are limits to what people and economies will bear. Government is out of money and hopelessly indebted. Yet it continues to spend as if it had the money. It has seriously wounded the host on which it parasitically survives. The golden goose no longer can shake off the effects of the government burden. The economy is stagnant. Confiscatory taxation and regulatory burdens prevent private capital formation. Without capital, standard of living and employment stagnate. The economy will continue to deteriorate and people will continue to become poorer until the system collapses of its own weight or the people revolt. Either represents a cataclysmic event!

    For a time monetary printing can disguise the deterioration. States and municipalities are unable to print money. Their unnecessary and wasteful schemes are surfacing. Puerto Rico demands a bailout. So will Illinois and dozens of other governmental entities. California is driving its productive class away. That is also happening at the Federal level where both people and companies are voting with their feet. The renouncement of US citizenship is exploding as is the relocation of corporate headquarters out of this country.

    Government as we know it is doomed. It will not recognize this reality until markets and/or citizens force it. This time is likely close and the process will not be painless. The more government ignores what is inevitable the greater the pain will be. One hopes that civilization does not enter an economic and anarchical Dark Ages. To the extent that government refuses to respond to the fantasy world they have created, the more likely that is to be the outcome.

    While many still think their vote matters, others are beginning to recognize the futility of voting.

    Government is Bad at Almost Everything

    Everyone has heard more than their share of stories about government inefficiency and stupidity. It is difficult to point to any government agency run effectively or achieving the ends for which it was created. The War on Poverty has increased poverty. The Department of Education was formed at the peak of educational effectiveness and everything has gone downhill since. What does the Department of Energy do besides make it more difficult to achieve more energy? The Internal Revenue Service has become a political tool to hammer opponents who do not hold the presidency. Hasn’t the Veteran’s Administration done a wonderful job for the medical care of our veterans? ObamaCare has driven health-care costs through the roof and put a damper on the creation of jobs like nothing else.

    And now this inefficiency seems to be reaching new heights in the TSA, the agency that fails miserably on routine tests to find contraband and other items prohibited. Now we are told that this agency is going to impose the loss of millions of hours of wait time because it cannot do its job properly. The following video shows what is coming:

    All the money being spent on preventing terrorism has not stopped one terrorist act at an airport. If you are a traveler, you are more likely to become a terrorist as a result of treatment by your own government than to be protected from terrorism.

  • The Secret (US-Instigated) History Of ISIS

    It appears, once again, Donald Trump is correct…

    As the following controversial Frontline documentary exposes – for the first time to the mainstream and average joes of America – the inside story of the the radicals who became the leaders of ISIS, the many missed warning signs and the U.S. failures to stop the terror group’s brutal rise.

    “We created chaos. We abandoned that chaos… We created ISIS!”

    Trailer…

    “I said: ‘Mr. President, it isn’t just a simple matter of going to Baghdad. I know how to do that. What happens after? You need to understand, if you take out a government, take out a regime, guess who becomes the government and regime and is responsible for the country? You are. So if you break it, you own it.’

     

    -Colin Powell

    Full documentary here (no embed, click image for link)

  • Taliban Leader Mansour Killed In US Drone Strike Inside Pakistan

    Earlier today, a veteran White House correspondent laid out his version of how Obama “gets away with it” in a news cycle when everyone’s attention should be glued to the economic failures of the lame duck president. One thing he forgot to mention, however, was the use of such conventional “rally around the flag” tactics as taking out a key symbolic nemesis of the US to drum up patriotic fervor.

    Just over five years ago this function was served by Osama bin Laden, who then died anywhere between the 3rd and 5th time (depending on who was counting). Then, earlier today, it was Mullah Akhtar Mansour, the leader of the Taliban in Afghanistan, who was killed by a US drone strike around 6 a.m. EDT Saturday
    while Mansour was riding in a vehicle in a remote area near the town
    of Ahmad Wal, Pakistan, along the border with Afghanistan, according to
    Defense Department officials.

    Mansour has been seen as the leader of the Taliban since it was revealed last year that famed leader Mullah Mohammad Omar had died in 2013. Since the disclosure of Omar’s death and under Mansour’s leadership, Taliban fighters have conducted numerous attacks that have resulted in the death of tens of thousands of Afghan civilians and Afghan security forces as well as a number of U.S. and coalition personnel, Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said in the statement.

    As a reminder, the last time the US conducted a strategic mission deep inside Pakistan (to executed Osama bin Laden), it led to a furious reaction by the local government which had not preapproved the operation. We expect this time will be no different as the US once again shows that “sovereignty” means absolutely nothing to the printer of the world’s reserve currency.

    Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, Taliban militants’ leader

    While still unconfirmed, the death of Mullah Akhtar Mansour could further fracture the Taliban – an outcome that experts cautioned might make the insurgents even less likely to participate in long-stalled peace efforts. In other words, it would push Afghanistan that much further from some semblance of peace. It will , however, likely lead to an escalation of Taliban retaliation which will likely focus on US assets in both Afghanistan, Pakistan and all other neighboring countries where US presence is not exactly “welcome.”

    According to Reuters, the assassination mission, which included multiple drones, demonstrated a clear willingness by Obama to go after the Afghan Taliban leadership in Pakistan now that the insurgents control or contest more territory in Afghanistan than at any time since being ousted by a U.S.-led intervention in 2001.

    The WSJ adds that a second man who was with Mr. Mansour and was considered a combatant is also believed to have been killed in the strike. The strike was authorized by President Obama, Pentagon officials said. Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook confirmed an air strike targeting Mansour in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region but declined to speculate on his fate, although multiple U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters he likely was killed. 

    Another Pentagon official said that there were no unintended casualties or other damage because of the remoteness of the area in which the strike occurred.  He probably felt obliged to add that in light of the thousands of innocent civilians that the US has “droned to death” in its pursuit of radical militants whose every step and location it knew well in advance.

    “We are still assessing the results of the strike and will provide more information as it becomes available,” Cook said.

    Not surprisingly the locals have denied the story:  a Taliban commander close to Mansour, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, denied Mansour was dead. It’s unclear why the Taliban was anonymous: it’s not like he is exactly leaking insider trading information.

    “We heard about these baseless reports but this not first time,” the commander said. “Just wanted to share with you my own information that Mullah Mansour has not been killed.”

    This is not the first time Mansour has been “killed” – in December, Mansour was reportedly wounded and possibly killed in a shootout at the house of another Taliban leader near Quetta in Pakistan. Well, not reportedly killed if he has been reportedly killed again, although as a reminder this is precisely what happened to none other than Osama bin Laden who also was “reportedly” killed numerous times before Obama finally took credit for his “final” killing.

    Bruce Riedel, an Afghanistan expert at the Brookings Institution think-tank, described the U.S. operation in Pakistan as an unprecedented move but cautioned about possible fallout with Pakistan, where Taliban leadership has long been accused of having safe haven.

    In other words, with ISIS cells in Europe carrying out suicide bombing missions every few months, the US decided it was a good idea to poke yet another hornets’ nest and create more chaos and retaliation. A State Department official said both Pakistan and Afghanistan were notified of the strike but did not disclose whether that notification was prior to it being carried out.

    “The opportunity to conduct this operation to eliminate the threat that Mansour posed was a distinctive one and we acted on it,” the official said.

    Reuters adds that the U.S. drones targeted Mansour and another combatant as the men rode in a vehicle in a remote area southwest of the town of Ahmad Wal, another U.S. official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

    U.S. special operations forces operated the drones in a mission authorized by Obama that took place at about 6 a.m. EDT (1000 GMT), the official said. That would have placed it at Saturday at 3 p.m. in Pakistan.

    Cook branded Mansour “an obstacle to peace and reconciliation between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban” and said he was involved in planning attacks that threatened U.S., Afghan and allied forces.

    Ironically, those who actually grasp what is about to happen, completely disagree. Take for example, Michael Kugelman, a senior associate for South and Southeast Asia at the Woodrow Wilson Center, said the strike was unlikely to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table any time soon. In fact, it will likely make the Taliban far less likely to want to sit down and discuss peace, assuming of course that Mansour is dead.

    “The Taliban won’t simply meekly agree to talks and especially as this strike could worsen the fragmentation within the organization,” he said.

    Kugelman said the most important target for the United States remained the top leadership of the Haqqani network, which is allied with the Taliban. Mansour had failed to win over rival factions within the Taliban after formally assuming the helm last year after the Taliban admitted the group’s founding leader, Mullah Omar, had been dead for more than two years.  It was unclear who Mansour’s successor might be. “If Mansour is dead it will provoke a crisis inside the Taliban,” Riedel said.U.S.

    It will also likely provoke another major diplomatic incident between Pakistani leadership and the Obama administration.

    Meanwhile, the neocons in the US were giidy with delight: John McCain, the Republican head of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said he hoped the strike would herald a change in the Obama administration’s policy against more broadly targeting the Taliban.

    The new U.S. commander in Afghanistan is currently reviewing U.S. strategy, including whether broader powers are needed to target insurgents and whether to proceed with plans to reduce the number of U.S. forces. “Our troops are in Afghanistan today for the same reason they deployed there in 2001 – to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for global terrorists,” McCain said. “The Taliban remains allied with these terrorists, including al-Qaeda and the Haqqani network, and it is the one force most able and willing to turn Afghanistan into a terrorist safe haven once again.”

    As the WSJ concludes, under the current authorities, U.S. military operations against the Taliban can only be taken under three broad circumstances: when U.S. or coalition forces are under threat, when U.S. officials deem that the Taliban is providing direct support to al Qaeda or when the Taliban pose a “strategic threat” to Afghan forces.

    U.S. officials said the strike Saturday was considered a “defensive” operation because the U.S. believed that the Taliban leader was actively plotting attacks against U.S. forces in neighboring Afghanistan. Even though there is clearly nothing defensive about an offensive drone assasination.

    The White House has called for shifting control of U.S. drone operations from the CIA to the Pentagon, but officials said the shift wouldn’t apply anytime soon to Pakistan because of political opposition there to the U.S. conducting overt strikes on Pakistani soil.

  • Suddenly Trump And Hillary Is All Goldman's Clients Want To Talk About

    A little over a month ago, conventional wisdom (and overrated pundits) said that Trump has no chance of being the republican nominee. They were all wrong, but so was the market which continued to ignore the possibility of a Trump presidency until well after the fact. And, as always happens, now is when if not the market, then certainly Goldman’s clients are finally trying to catch up. As Goldman strategist David Kostin (who just one week ago warned that there is now a substantial risk of a market drop ahead of the year end), writes “Politics is now a topic in every client discussion.”

    Kostin remains short-term bearish, and still sees the S&P sliding as low as 1850 in the next several months, but he appears more focused on the the impact of the next president on the market and the economy, now that suddenly the market is starting to price it in.

    So for all those curious, this is how Kostin is responding to all of Goldman’s clients questions about the upcoming presidential election and how to trade it.

    * * *

    United we stand, divided we fall: Equity strategies ahead of a rise in political uncertainty

    The US Presidential election will take place in 170 days on November 8, 2016. Politics is now a topic in every client discussion. Last week we argued the S&P 500 was vulnerable to a 5%-10% drawdown and the index could fall to 1850-1950 during the next several months although it would end the year at 2100, roughly 3% above the current level. Rising political uncertainty was one of the risks we identified as a potential catalyst for a market drawdown.

    Prediction markets assign a 60% probability that Hillary Clinton will win the general election. Polls tell a different story: the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of the most recent national polls shows a 3.1 point spread in favor of presumptive Democratic nominee former Secretary of State Clinton (45.8) versus presumptive Republican nominee businessman Donald Trump (42.7). The RCP spread has narrowed from 9.3 points just one month ago (48.8 vs. 39.5 on April 20, 2016). Some polls such as the May 18th Rasmussen Reports show a spread of 5 points in favor of Trump (42) vs. Clinton (37).

    Polls in prior presidential elections tightened as voting day approached. But thus far 2016 has hardly followed a regular election playbook. Our view is the closeness of the current race is underpriced by the market. We believe that the contest will become more competitive – or at least will be perceived as more competitive – than it is currently. The upcoming party conventions (Republicans on July 18-21 and Democrats on July 25-28) will raise political uncertainty as the competition enters the home-stretch.

    Equity market uncertainty will almost assuredly climb during the next several months in concert with rising political uncertainty. The US Equity Market Uncertainty Index tracks articles in more than 1,000 domestic newspapers that use the terms “uncertainty,” “economics,” and “equity market” or “stock market”. Exhibit 1 shows the path of stock market uncertainty during the past seven US presidential election years. The 2016 path is tracking below any previous election year since 1988. But the trend will soon reverse and equity uncertainty will rise as Election Day approaches.

     

    When equity market uncertainty rises, Consumer Staples typically outperforms while Information Technology lags (see Exhibit 2). From a factor perspective, the past decade shows that when equity market uncertainty increases, stocks with high dividend yield and low volatility outperform. In contrast, both high growth stocks and low valuation companies underperform their respective counterparts (see Exhibit 3)

    Equity portfolio managers should focus on the investment implications of the economic, trade, and tax policies of the presumptive nominees. A rise in protectionism would represent a broad risk to the stock market because 33% of aggregate S&P 500 revenues is generated outside the US.

    Donald Trump has stated that if elected President he would threaten to impose tariffs on various imports to offset what he deems unfair competition in the form of state subsidies and currency manipulation. A protectionist US trade policy raises the risk of retaliation by other countries.

    The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a multilateral trade agreement with 11 other nations on the Pacific Basin that awaits Senate approval. The Office of the US Trade Representative believes the agreement will facilitate the sale of Made-in-America products abroad by eliminating more than 18,000 taxes and trade barriers on US products across TPP nations. The US Chamber of Commerce supports the deal. Hillary Clinton supported the trade agreement while it was being negotiated but now she opposes it.

    Protectionist rhetoric will become louder as election season progresses and stocks with high US sales will outperform firms with foreign sales. Our sector-neutral basket of 50 stocks with 100% US sales (GSTHAINT) will outperform our corresponding basket of stocks with 72% non-US revenues (GSTHINTL). The long US sales/short foreign sales trade benefits from a strengthening US Dollar, which explains why the strategy has returned -350 bp YTD as our basket of high US sales (-1.3%) has trailed our foreign sales basket (+2.2%). Domestic stocks have faster growth and a lower P/E. Looking forward, a hawkish Fed relative to expectations will boost the USD.

    Taxes are a perennial election year debate topic. However, any tax reform plans would require Congressional approval. According to the independent Tax Foundation, Donald Trump proposes to reduce the federal corporate tax rate to 15% from the current rate of 35% and repeal most preferences. Hillary Clinton seeks to impose an “exit tax” on tax inversions and limit earnings stripping via interest deductions. In general, firms with high effective tax rates would benefit most from any changes in the tax code while companies with low tax rates would be more at risk. Constituents in our high tax rate basket (GSTHHTAX) have a median effective federal and state tax rate during the past 10 years of 38% compared with 18% for firms in our low tax rate basket (GSTHLTAX) and 31% for the median S&P 500 stock. See Exhibit 5 for a list of 16 stocks that are constituents of both our high US sales and high tax rate baskets that should outperform the 11 stocks with both high foreign sales and low tax rates as Election Day draws near.

  • Meet AnBot: China's Tireless, Unquestioning, Taser-Wielding "Robocop"

    China is developing a robotic security officer that can sniff out bombs, grab suspects with a mechanical clamp and deliver a jolt of electricity to neutralise threats.

     Xiao Xiangjiang, who leads the development team at the defence university, told the People’s Liberation Army mouthpiece PLA Daily that AnBot had undergone test runs at a military camp, airport and museum in Changsha with “very positive” user feedback.

     

     

    Xiao said the robot, which moves on wheels, could carry out a non-stop patrol for eight hours, hitting speeds as high as 18km/h. Its cameras can recognise and track faces, and it is equipped with sensors that can detect explosives, drugs and weapons.

     

    It can also be ordered via a remote human controller to deliver an electric jolt with its mechanical clamp to disable a target.

    When the system is automated, as SHTFPlan's Mac Slavo notes, the robotic enforcers will quite literally do what they are told.

    If the governing powers-that-be enforce a tyranny, and ask the robots to do something against the people that human law enforcement officers would know to be illegal and/or immoral, they will simply obey. It is in their programming.

     

    As such, robot enforcers stand to be a formidable obstacle to freedom and justice. They can choose targets and make decisions automatically, without the need for human oversight. So just what will happen when civil unrest, riots or other emergencies take place? These machines can and will restore order at all costs.

    Mainland China has seen a spate of large-scale violent attacks erupt in key cities in recent years, including bombings, knife attacks and arson, according The South China Morning Post.

    The government does not make public the number of such “mass incidents”, but sales of security hardware hit about 500 billion yuan last year and the market has been growing by 17 to 20 per cent annually, the fastest in the world, according to the association.

     

    “Many soldiers and security personnel are working in torturous environments beyond the imagination of ordinary people. Security robots will end the pain,” he said.

     

    But some human rights researchers have expressed concern over an authoritarian state using robots to help maintain public security. Flesh and blood officers might refuse to carry out orders if they felt conflicted.

    And that's why, as The Daily Sheeple's Joshua Kearse explains, the governments of the world are very interested in developing robots for military and law enforcement applications…

    Over the past few years, the police in America and around the world have been facing more scrutiny than they ever have before. Their abuses and arrogant demeanor are now easily recorded, and displayed on the internet for all to see. As a result, it’s never been so easy to criticize the police.

    But it’s important to remember that not all cops are bad. It may seem that way, because people are much more likely to turn on their smartphone cameras when a cop is being an intolerable tyrant. There are still plenty of police officers out there who have a conscience, and no doubt, the government is afraid of these officers more than anyone else. They’ll never be able to crackdown on the population, unless they have near 100% obedience from their enforcers.

    That’s why the governments of the world are very interested in developing robots for military and law enforcement applications. They need yes men more than ever, and if they can’t get enough yes men to enforce their onerous rules, then they’ll turn to yes robots to fill the gap, and replace all the cops and soldiers who don’t toe the line.

    They’ll do it for a lot of the same reasons that private companies are trying to automate their respective industries. In any given workforce, there are humans that complain. There are people who need time off and benefits. There are people in positions both high and low, who can blow the whistle on crimes and labor violations. Ultimately, running a business means appeasing a bunch of ornery humans, each with individual needs, wants, and agendas. And let’s not forget, they all need to be paid.

    But more importantly, the government needs people who are willing to control the population. Robots simplify everything for people who are control freaks, and as it just so happens, control freaks tend to gravitate into positions of higher authority in both the public and private spheres. In the case of our government and other governments around the world, the control freaks are eager to clean out all the do-gooders and conscientious individuals who are less than willing to carry out their orders to brutalize the population. If they can replace these people with robots and promote the remaining yes men to higher positions, then they no longer have to answer to anyone.

    And don’t think for a second that this is going to happen many years down the road. It’s happening right now in countries like China. While the US has been leading the charge for military robots, China’s autocratic regime may be ahead of the rest of the world when it comes to law enforcement robots. In fact, they’re about to introduce one of the world’s first policing robots, complete with a tazer for shocking non compliant citizens.

    Take note. This is the future. There’s no reason why robots like this won’t show up in your neighborhood someday. Pretty much all governments have the same desire to control their population, and technology knows no borders.

  • A Retired White House Correspondent Explains "How Obama Gets Away With It"

    Authored by Richard Benedetto, a retired USA Today White House correspondent and columnist, who teaches politics and journalism at American University and in the Fund for American Studies program at George Mason University. Originally posted in the WSJ.

     

    How Obama Gets Away With It

    At a time when large numbers of Americans say they are fed up with politics and politicians, why is it that the nation’s chief politician, President Obama, seems to skate above it unscathed?

     

    Usually when an incumbent president is leaving office and a slew of candidates are battling for his job, that departing chief executive’s record is a major campaign issue.

    But not this year, even though two of three Americans say the country is on the wrong track, job creation is sluggish, income inequality continues to rise and Mr. Obama’s job approval barely tops 50%. Moreover, approval of his handling of the war on terror and Islamic State is underwater, and a majority of Americans—white and black—say race relations are getting worse, not better.

    When Mr. Obama ran for office in 2008, a central part of his campaign strategy was to heap blame on George W. Bush. How has Mr. Obama dodged similar treatment? One reason: Donald Trump’s bombastic candidacy is a huge distraction and often blocks out or obliterates more-substantive issues. That was the case even when his now-vanquished rivals tried to address serious topics. When Mr. Trump does criticize the president, it gets far less news play than his attacks on his opponents and critics, Republican or Democrat. As for Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, they both are angling for a third consecutive Democratic administration, so are not eager to criticize Mr. Obama.

    But another reason—a big one—why Mr. Obama is able to avoid being a target is that he is a deft manipulator of the media, probably more skillful at it than any president ever. He heads a savvy public-relations machine that markets him like a Hollywood celebrity, a role he obligingly and successfully plays. One of the machine’s key tactics is to place Mr. Obama in as many positive news and photo situations as possible. Ronald Reagan’s advisers were considered masters of putting their man in the best possible light, but they look like amateurs compared with the Obama operation—which has the added advantage of a particularly obliging news media.

    A sampling over the past few weeks: A Washington Post photo captures President Obama blowing giant bubbles “At the final White House Science Fair of his presidency.” A New York Times photo shows the president mobbed by women admirers at a ceremony designating the Sewall-Belmont House on Capitol Hill as a national museum for women’s equality.

    An ABC News video gives us Mr. Obama’s helicopter landing on the rainy grounds of Britain’s Windsor Castle, and then we visit the president and first lady lunching with Queen Elizabeth II on her 90th birthday.

    In other news clips, we see a doctoral-robed Obama speaking to graduates of Howard University, a tuxedoed Obama yukking it up at the White House Correspondents Association dinner, a brave Obama drinking a glass of water in Flint, Mich., a cool Obama grooving with Aretha Franklin at a White House jazz concert, a serious Obama intently listening to Saudi King Salman, a jubilant Obama on his showy trip to Cuba.

    A picture may be worth a thousand words, but with Mr. Obama you also get the thousand words.

    Yet at the same time we were seeing those nice photos, videos and articles, a lot of other important stuff was going on where Mr. Obama was hardly mentioned, seen or questioned. For example, the U.S. economy grew at a meager 0.5% in the first quarter of 2016; Russian military planes lately have been buzzing U.S. Navy ships; and China is building its military forces and expanding their reach in the South China Sea. Early in May, a Navy SEAL was killed in Iraq (the president has assured the American public that U.S. troops there, increasing in numbers, are not in combat roles). Islamic State terrorist attacks in Baghdad in recent weeks have killed scores of civilians. The Taliban are on the march in Afghanistan. The vicious war in Syria continues. The Middle East refugee crisis shows no sign of diminishing. Military provocations by Iran and North Korea keep coming.

    President Obama’s media handlers try to keep the president as far away from these crises as possible, leaving others in his administration such as Press Secretary Josh Earnest, Vice President Joe Biden, Secretary of State John Kerry, Defense Secretary Ash Carter and Joint Chiefs Chairman Joseph Dunford to be their public face. That way the problems don’t appear to be Mr. Obama’s problem, and he is free to bask in the good news.

    One of the news media’s main jobs is to hold public officials accountable, from the president on down. But Mr. Obama is the beneficiary of news-media managers and reporters who mostly like his style and agree with his policies, from his reluctance to make strong military commitments to his advocacy for LGBT rights, fighting climate change and supporting tougher gun-control laws. Case in point: The administration’s easy orchestration of the media story line about the Iranian nuclear deal, recently revealed by Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes, only scratches the surface of the White House’s skill at managing a media happy to be managed.

    Given such a congruence of opinion, Mr. Obama’s policies don’t receive the scrutiny and analysis they should. Reporters who criticize or dig too deep are cast by the administration as spoilsports or, worse, cut off from sources.

    With Donald Trump now the media obsession—and most in the media don’t like him—it is easy to see why Mr. Obama’s performance over the past seven-plus years is still not a major issue in the 2016 campaign. And that’s the way he likes it.

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Today’s News 21st May 2016

  • A CHaTTeRiNG NuiSaNCe…

    A CHATTERING NUISANCE

  • UN Plots War On Free Speech To Stop "Extremism" Online

    Submitted by Alex Newman via The new American (h/t Brandon Smith),

    The United Nations Security Council wants a global “framework” for censoring the Internet, as well as for using government propaganda to “counter” what its apparatchiks call “online propaganda,” “hateful ideologies,” and “digital terrorism.” To that end, the UN Security Council this week ordered the UN “Counter-Terrorism Committee” — yes, that is a real bureaucracy — to draw up a plan by next year. From the Obama administration to the brutal Communist Chinese regime, everybody agreed that it was time for a UN-led crackdown on freedom of speech and thought online — all under the guise of fighting the transparently bogus terror war.

    The UN, ridiculed by American critics as the “dictators club,” will reportedly be partnering with some of the world's largest Internet and technology companies in the plot. Among the firms involved in the scheme is Microsoft, which, in a speech before the Security Council on May 11, called for “public-private partnerships” between Big Business and Big Government to battle online propaganda. As this magazine has documented, Google, Microsoft, Yahoo, and other top tech giants have all publicly embraced the UN and its agenda for humanity. Many of the more than 70 speakers also said it was past time to censor the Internet, with help from the “private sector.”

    At the UN meeting this week, the 15 members of the UN Security Council, including some of the most extreme and violent dictatorships on the planet, claimed they wanted to stop extremism and violence from spreading on the Internet. In particular, the governments pretended as if the effort was aimed at Islamist terror groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda, both of which have received crucial backing from leading members of the UN Security Council itself. Terrorism was not defined. Everybody agreed, though, that terror should not be associated with any particular religion, nationality, ethnicity, and so on, even though at least one delegation fingered the Israeli government.

    In its “presidential statement” after the session, the UN Security Council claimed that “terrorism” could be defeated only with “international law” and through collaboration between the UN and emerging regional governments such as the various “unions” being imposed on Europe, Africa, Eurasia, South America, and beyond. “The Security Council stresses that terrorism can only be defeated by a sustained and comprehensive approach involving the active participation and collaboration of all States, international and regional organizations … consistent with the United Nations Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy,” it said. Of course, the UN still has no actual definition of terrorism, but it is in the process of usurping vast new powers under the guise of fighting this undefined nemesis.

    However, the UN, in its ongoing war against free speech and actual human rights around the world, has offered some strong hints about its agenda. According to UN officials, the plan to regulate speech on the Internet will complement another, related UN plot known formally as the “Plan of Action to Prevent Violent Extremism.” As The New American reported last year, the plan calls for a global war on “ideologies.” That crusade will include, among other components, planetary efforts to stamp out all “anti-Muslim bigotry,” anti-immigrant sentiments, and much more, the UN and Obama explained. So-called “non-violent extremism” is also in the UN's crosshairs, as is free speech generally.

    It was not immediately clear how a UN-led war on “anti-Muslim bigotry” would stop ISIS. The savage terror group, which according to top U.S. officials was created and funded by Obama's anti-ISIS coalition, served as the crucial justification for the UN plan. However, based on the outlines of the UN extremism scheme released so far, it is clear that there will be no serious efforts to address the growing extremism of the UN or the violent extremism of many of its mostly autocratic member regimes. Instead, the “extremism” plan will serve as a pretext to impose a broad range of truly extremist policies at the national, regional, and international level.

    Seemingly oblivious to the totalitarian absurdity of the comments, top UN officials called for safeguards against “excessive punishment” wielded against those who express their views on the Internet. “The protection of free media can be a defense against terrorist narratives,” UN Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson told the Security Council during the meeting this week in a stunning example of double-speak. “There must be no arbitrary or excessive punishment against people who are simply expressing their opinions.” It was not immediately clear what specific punishments for free speech would be considered non-excessive. But in the United States, despite UN claims about pseudo-“human rights” requiring censorship, any and all “punishment” for expressing one's views is strictly prohibited.

    Separately, the Communist Chinese dictatorship, which now dominates various UN bureaucracies, enthusiastically embraced the UN's efforts. Speaking on behalf of the brutal regime, Liu Jieyi, Beijing's permanent representative to the UN, said that institutions promoting “extremist ideologies” needed to be "closed down." Apparently he was not referring to the “extremist ideology” of the Communist Party of China or its brutal regime, which has murdered more innocent human beings than any other in history. Beijing alone has killed more than 60 million people, not including those butchered in forced abortions. Other communist governments allied with Beijing have murdered tens of millions more, just in the last century.

    While the UN has a major role to play, governments also need to help out in censoring the Internet and abolishing free speech, the communist regime said. “States must shut down some social media networks,” Liu continued, calling for the UN and its members to “cut off the channels for spreading terrorist ideologies.” He also touted terror decrees adopted recently by Beijing that target the Internet and purport to authorize the deployment of the communist dictatorship's armed enforcers all over the world. As The New American has documented previously, the Chinese dictatorship will be playing a major role in the UN's anti-freedom of speech crusade. In fact, the regime currently has its agents embedded all throughout the UN, and even at the top of the UN agency that globalists are working to empower as the global Internet regulator. He claims censorship is all in the eye of the beholder.

    Even as Communist China and other overtly dictatorial UN members emphasized censorship and regulation to stop ideologies and “propaganda” they dislike, the Obama administration, the European Union, and some of its formerly sovereign member states instead touted government propaganda to counter extremist propaganda. However, speaking for the EU, Alain Le Roy also celebrated the unaccountable super-state's own efforts to censor the Internet as something to be emulated. As this magazine reported last year, the EU's self-styled police force, Europol, even launched a whole unit aimed at censoring “extremist” content on the Internet. The EU spokesman pointed to, among other schemes, ongoing EU efforts to remove “propaganda materials” from the Internet, as well as EU propaganda efforts to “spread alternative messages.”

    The representative of Syria's brutal dictatorship, Bashar Jaafari, showed up to crash the party. He pointed out that multiple UN member states had used terrorist fighters and mercenaries in their quest to destroy Syria. And he is right. Indeed, as far back as 2012, U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency documents show that the Obama administration knew the “moderate Syrian rebels” it was supporting were led by al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood. The administration and its allies were also working to create what they described as a “Salafist principality in Eastern Syria” — today the principality is known as the Islamic State, or ISIS — in order to destabilize the Assad regime. Even top U.S. officials have openly admitted that Obama's “anti-ISIS” coalition was responsible for creating, arming, and funding ISIS. What role the Internet and “propaganda” may have played in that, if any, was not made clear at the UN meeting.

    In Libya, a similar situation occurred. The Obama administration, under the guise of enforcing an illegitimate UN resolution, openly partnered with self-declared al-Qaeda leaders to overthrow former U.S. terror-war ally and brutal dictator Moammar Gadhafi. Congress was never consulted, making Obama's war illegal and unconstitutional, in addition to the serious crime of providing aid to designated terror organizations. Today, thanks to that extremism, Libya is a failed state awash in heavy military weaponry and terror training camps. Much of the Obama administration-supplied aid for terror groups in Libya was transferred to supporting terror groups in Syria following the fall of Gadhafi's regime.

    Aside from governments, dictators, and international bureaucrats, Big Technology was also represented at the UN meeting. Microsoft Vice-President and Deputy General Counsel Steve Crown told the assembled representatives of governments and tyrants that there was no “silver bullet” to prevent terrorists and extremists from using the Internet. “If there were an elegant solution, industry would have adopted it,” he claimed, adding that Google, Facebook, and Twitter were coming together to prevent the Internet from being abused. Facebook was exposed just this week censoring conservative media outlets from its “trending” news section. And earlier this year, Google was exposed for having helping the U.S. government foment jihadist-led revolution in Syria.

    Echoing the UN's rhetoric, Crown claimed “international law” and fascist-style “public-private partnerships,” in which governments and Big Business join forces, were the appropriate response. He also said the “international community,” a deceptive term generally used to refer to the UN and its member governments, needed to “work together in a coordinated and transparent way.” The UN Security Council agreed, saying in its final declaration that there needed to be “more effective ways for governments to partner with … private sector industry partners.” It is hardly a new agenda.

    As The New American reported previously, the technology giants — all of which are regularly represented at the globalist Bilderberg summits — have also emerged as enthusiastic supporters of the UN's radical “Agenda 2030.” According to the agreement, the goal is “transforming our world,” redistributing wealth at the international level, empowering the institutions of global governance, and more. Among the mega-corporations proudly backing the scheme are the world’s top three search engines: Google, Microsoft’s Bing, and Yahoo. It was not immediately clear whether those corporations’ support for the deeply controversial UN agenda would affect the supposed impartiality of their search results. But critics of the UN plan expressed alarm nonetheless.

    Of course, a handful of the more than 70 people who spoke at the Security Council confab paid lip service to freedom of speech and freedom of thought. The Iraqi government's delegation, for example, emphasized differentiating between “freedom of thought and extremist ideologies.” Others said the war on extremism could not be used to justify persecuting critics of governments. Some of the speakers no doubt had good intentions, too.

    However, putting the UN in charge of fighting extremism and dangerous ideologies would be like putting a mafia boss in charge of fighting crime — it is patently absurd, even grotesque. Most of the UN's member regimes are undemocratic, to be generous, and many of them are led by genocidal psychopaths who murder with impunity. Among other UN member states, those enslaving North Korea, Zimbabwe, Cuba, Sudan, China, and many more are run by criminals and mass-murderers who epitomize terrorism and violent extremism. Plus, virtually every terror group on earth today has its roots in state-sponsorship, including ISIS and al-Qaeda.

    The real solution to terror, then, is neither a stronger UN nor a global war on ideologies, extreme or otherwise. Empowering the UN to wage a global war on ideas, ideologies, propaganda, and speech is itself an extremist proposition riddled with extreme dangers. A far simpler answer to the scourge of terrorism would be to defund the UN, arrest those supporting terror groups, and stop propping up dictators and terrorists with taxpayer money. Anything else is a dangerous fraud.

  • Beijing Astronomers Advise Residents Of "Rare Event" Tomorrow Morning

    BEIJING – Predicting ideal conditions for the rare sight, Chinese astronomers announced to Beijing residents Monday that the sky would be visible for a brief two-minute window tomorrow morning.

     

    According to a statement from the China National Space Administration read in part, advising interested citizens to plan on waking early and to consider using a small telescope for better views of the sky.

    “From approximately 6:14 a.m. to 6:16 a.m., a small section of the Earth’s atmosphere should be perceptible to the naked eye when looking towards the southwest in Beijing.”

     

    “For anyone who hasn’t seen it before or isn’t sure what to look for, the sky will appear as a small, bluish area that should stand out clearly from its surroundings. We’ll also be streaming the phenomenon live on the official CNSA website for residents with obstructed views in their neighborhood.”

    The agency added that anyone who missed out on witnessing the occurrence tomorrow would have to wait a while, as the sky was not expected to be visible again until late 2024.

    Source: The Onion

    While tongue in cheek – perhaps – not everyone is laughing and some are even attempting to combat the pollution. So here, as we noted previously, courtesy of VJ, are the 13 most head-scratching proposals intended to do just that: fix China's smog. Good luck.

    #13. Sky Watering Skyscrapers

    Technically, it is called precipitation scavenging. In actuality all this means is turning skyscrapers into giant sprinklers in an effort to wash the skies of pollution. “If you can offer a half-hour watering your garden, then you can offer a half-hour watering your ambient atmosphere to keep air clean . . . ,” rings the sales pitch of this rather lo-fi geoengineering strategy.

    Basically, precipitation scavenging works on the premise that rain clears smog, so artificial rain should do the same. To create “rain,” giant sprinklers will be attached to the roofs of tall buildings in China’s most polluted cities. During times when the air pollution rises due to a lack of rain the sprinklers will turn on, pulling SO2, NOx, and other airborne poisons out of the sky and dropping them down to the ground below. Researchers estimate that even on China’s worst air days it would only take a few hours to a few days of artificial rain to drop the PM 2.5 content down to 35 µg m-3, the recommended WHO limit — leaving blue skies in its wake.

    As for where this water will come from, researchers say that it could easily be taken from nearby lakes and rivers, where it could be pumped up to the tops of skyscrapers, sprayed, collected, and then cycled back through the system. Though I have to admit that the thought of having the bubbling sludge from many of China’s polluted waterways being sprinkled out on top of my head doesn’t sound very appealing. The last thing we need is a second deadly aerial assault.

    As for the cost of precipitation scavenging, researchers estimate that it would only take 1 kilowatt hour of electricity to lift one ton of water 200 meters, which would apparently only cost around $0.05. “. . . the low-tech nature of this geoengineering approach has led us to believe that it will cost much less than many other interventions such as cutting emissions.”

    (Yes, that’s  a direct quote.)

    Oh yeah, proponents of precipitation scavenging would also like to add that their system comes with a built in duel purpose bonus: it could also be used to fight fires.

    Read Shaocai Yu’s research on this geoengineering method.

    #12. Giant Floating Jellyfish-Like Acid Eating Membranes

    If you don’t necessarily like the idea of artificial rain showers of potentially toxic Chinese river water knocking particulate matter out of the sky then here’s another solution you may prefer. It consists of launching squadrons of giant floating jellyfish-like membranes into the sky that eat SO2, NOx, and other pollutants which harm plants, animals, architecture, and humans, and then turning them into reclaimed water and chemical fertilizer.

    Floating jellyfish?

    Technically they’re called aerocysts.

    Aerocysts?

    Giant membranes filled with H2.

    The H2 makes the aerocysts float and the long flowing tentacles hanging off of their bottoms make them look unequivocally like jellyfish.

    If this strategy is ever implemented on a large scale China’s urban skies will be full of these things hovering 200-300 meters off the ground, where the most acidic pollutants hang out. The membrane, which makes up the jellyfish-like “head” of the apparatus is porous and will suck in the acidic materials it touches, thus removing them from the environment.

    But these dystopian drones don’t stop there, as after the acidic materials are collected they are run through an on-deck purifier, which neutralizes them with with an on board microorganism produced alkaline substance. The now PH balanced gunk will then be transformed into a neutral, benign liquid with ammonium salt, which will conveniently be derived from the plants which will be growing off of the tentacles. When all filled up, the aerocysts will be programmed to return to port and deposit the liquid into a receptacle, where it can later be used as reclaimed water.

    #11. Smog Fighting Drones

    While talking about unmanned aerial anti-pollution devices we can’t leave out the array of smog fighting drones that are being tested throughout China. The most promising is a parafoil drone, which basically looks like a generator hanging from a parachute, that is being developed by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China. It’s function is to soar through the air blasting PM 2.5 particles with a chemical which freezes them, thus making them fall to the earth below. Each of these drones can clean a five square kilometer area, which is about large enough to scrub the air around an airport, port, or, as the case may be, urban districts where select groups of influential citizens wish to have cleaner air. Apparently, the Chinese government has already been using fixed-wing drones to chemically remove smog for some years now, but this new design allows each one to carry far more ammunition.

    Though, of course, nobody really knows what effect these airborne “chemicals” will have on the humans and environment they will inevitably dust below.

    #10. Impregnating the Air with Liquid Nitrogen

    It is know that under the right circumstances artificially cooling particulate matter can disperse them from the atmosphere, and liquid nitrogen has been shown to be one of the best smog fighting chemicals yet available. Basically, the idea is to blast industrial coolant into the sky, which can cause crystals to form on PM 2.5 particles, whereupon gravity will do the rest. This method can also create a blanket of cool air which prevents warmer, polluted air from reaching the street surface.

    “It is possible in theory to create a smog-free zone with liquid nitrogen and a shield against air pollutants with man-made cold, but even in laboratories we handle liquid nitrogen with care due to its extremely low temperature,” Dr. Wang Xinfeng, a researcher out of Shandong University in Jinan, told the SCMP.

    #9. Cloud Seeding

    As we’ve previously discovered, precipitation knocks smog out of the skies. So why not just create rain and snow? Cloud seeding, an anti-pollution measure which consists of blasting silver iodine packed rockets into clouds, is back. This was one of the ways that Beijing manufactured blue skies for the Olympics, and, according to a document published by the China Meteorological Administration, in 2015 local municipalities across China will be given the go ahead to use it at will.

    When the silver iodine is shot into the clouds it assists in the formation of ice crystals, which then melt and drop to the ground below as rain, cleaning the skies in the process.

    As a side note, silver iodide is toxic.

    #8. Just Vacuum It

    It has been suggested by Dutch researcher Daan Roosgaarde that China could create patches of clean air by essentially vacuuming it up. The method consists of burying Tesla coils just beneath the ground, which would then create an electrostatic field that could create a shaft of clean air by sucking away particulate matter and depositing it on the ground. In laboratory tests at the University of Delft, Roosgaarde has been able to clear smog from a one cubic meter area in five cubic meter room. He currently has a deal with Beijing to test out one of these devices in one of the city’s parks.

    #7. Biodomes

    A year or so ago a high-end school in Beijing offered my wife a job. Like so many others, she ultimately turned it down due to the atrocious quality of the city’s air. The school’s rebuttal was that they were building a giant bubble around their playground. This fact came off as more frightening than enticing: Is the air there really so bad that people are living in airtight domes?

    In China’s smog encapsulated wealthy cities biodomes may soon become a part of life. Well, they may someday become a part of life for those who can afford to go to institutions that can pick up the tab — as at $950 per square meter, biodomes don’t come cheap.

    These structures are essentially giant transparent domes that can enclose gardens, playgrounds, sports centers, schools yards — maybe someday even homes or entire neighborhoods. The ambient environment within these pods will be controlled, the air will be filtered of particulate matter and other pollutants, essentially creating an entire artificial environment.

    From Dvice:

    The “Bubbles” concept is designed to be an encapsulated oasis of clean air, much like the planet-sized air shield from the movie Spaceballs. Bubbles won’t be anywhere near planetary, of course. Instead, this air shield will house a park and botanical garden. Above the canopy, an undulating glass roof will contain translucent solar cells meant to collect whatever light actually penetrates Beijing’s Mordor-like perpetual gloom.

    Though their builders are approaching them like any other project. “It’s just an infrastructure project like building metro stations and parks,” said Rajat Sodhi of Orproject, a British company that specializes in biodomes. (Yes, there are now companies specializing in biodomes). Perhaps more than anything else on this list, this strategy makes us realize that yes, it has really come to this.

    #6. Banning Outdoor Barbecues

    Air pollution looks like smoke and, well, smoke looks like smoke. Cooking food produces smoke, so perhaps cooking could be partiality responsible for the atrocious state of China’s air? Apparently, this is the thinking behind Beijing’s ban on outdoor barbecues. According to the Global Times, almost 13% of the particulate matter in Beijing’s air comes from cooking. That doesn’t quite seem right, but as the GT is the international mouthpiece of the PRC who could deny it? The outdoor barbecue ban was first enacted in 2000 but was not enforced until recently, when the city’s chengguan have been going around smashing smoke emitting street food stales and fining their proprietors.

    #5. Removing 6 Million Cars

    Calling the country’s environmental situation “extremely grim,” the PRC announced that it will remove nearly 5.3 million higher polluting cars off the roads this year. Basically, all vehicles manufactured before 2005 are going to get the boot. 330,000 will be removed from Beijing alone, and an incredible 660,000 will be decommissioned in Hebei Province, which is one of the smoggiest regions in the world. China currently has 240 million automobiles on the road, half being passenger cars. Though, in rather typical Chinese fashion, the decree lacks a disclosure as to how this measure is going to be put into effect.

    Along with this initiative comes a plan to require gas stations in Beijing, Shanghai, and a handful of other large cities to sell only the highest grade, lowest polluting fuel available.

    Actually, this doesn’t seem to be that deranged of a pollution fighting method after all.

    #4. Removing Mountains

    In 1997, Lanzhou’s Daqingshan Project aimed to remove a 1,689 meter high mountain that encased the city improve its air quality — as well as to create a little extra land that could be sold to developers. Lanzhou also has some of the worst air on the planet, which is partially a result of the fact that it sits deep down in a valley and is hemmed in on all sides by mountains. So to increase circulation a little and whisk away some smog the city decided to just remove one of the largest mountains that rose above it. They actually removed half of it before it became obvious that it just wasn’t going to work: the air quality remained as sordid as ever.

    This is not a potential “solution” that has yet been replicated elsewhere.

    #3. Coal by Wire

    Out of sight out of mind. Or, more poignantly, if it’s far away from major cities then who gives a shit seems to be the philosophy behind China’s coal by wire initiative. This is one of the most massive infrastructural projects going in the world today, and consists of building large amounts of coal fired power plants way out in remote places in China’s north and west and sending the energy over thousands of miles to big cities. The initiative is a continuation of an ongoing movement to decentralize and disperse heavy polluting industries into the hinterlands of the country, where less people will see them and feel their immediate effects.

    So in-focus places like Beijing and Shanghai will become less and less polluted while previously pristine areas that hardly anybody knows even exist, like Hulunbuir, will become wastelands. Already, the wide open grasslands of Inner Mongolia are speckled with expansive arrays of power plants, and this looks to be a trend that will be intensified over the coming decades.

    The biggest problem with coal by wire, besides environmentally assaulting millions of innocent bystanders and destroying China’s last unpolluted frontiers, is the fact that the places most of the power plants are going tend to have a low supply of water. As coal fed power plants need incredible amounts of freshwater to function, there is a definite conflict of interests built into this initiative.

    #2. Turning Coal into Gas

    China plans to cut down the particulate matter in the northern reaches of the country by 25 per cent by 2017. One of the main ways it intends to do this is by turning coal into gas. While coal is often blamed for the most of China’s air pollution woes, natural gas burns cleaner, creating less emissions. So why not just convert the coal to natural gas in order to use China’s abundant supplies of this energy source in a way that will create less air pollution? That’s the strategy behind China’s new initiative to raise synthetic coal-to-gas output to 50 Bcm a year by 2020, which would account for 12.5% of the country’s total domestic gas supply. To these ends, approval was given to build 18 new large scale synthetic natural gas (SNG) plants across China’s northern fringes.

     

    Though this plan does not seem to be the environmental solution it’s initially billed to be:

    While SNG emits fewer particulates into the air than burning coal, it releases significantly more greenhouse gases than mainstream fossil fuels. Peer-reviewed studies in the journal Energy Policy estimate that life-cycle CO2 emissions are 36–108 percent higher than coal when coal-based SNG is used for cooking, heating, and power generation. Rapidly deploying SNG projects might, therefore, be a step backward for China’s low-carbon energy strategy.

    According to the World Resources Institute (WRI), the production of synthetic gas could ultimately result in twice the total carbon emissions as coal-fired energy.

    Converting coal to natural gas is also takes an incredible amount of water. It takes 6-10 liters of water to produce one cubic meter of SNG. As most of the new coal to gas power plants are to be built in the China’s arid northern regions — Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia — they will further add stresses to a water table that’s already coming close to tapping out.

    Like the Coal By Wire initiative, SNG production is an effort to keep the big cities of China’s east running with cleaner skies by exporting environmental stresses out to the hinterlands:

    Under a memorandum of understanding with the Inner Mongolia Government, Beijing will become the first Chinese city powered by SNG, receiving at least 4 billion cubic meters of the fuel annually. This production would consume more than 32 billion liters of freshwater, enough to meet 1 million Inner Mongolians’ domestic needs for an entire year.

    #1. Building Ecocities

    The words “eco” and “city” combined together in any fashion sound like an oxymoron. If ecological well-being alone was truly the goal, China probably wouldn’t being plowing up thousands of square kilometers of agricultural fields, small villages, wooded areas, and foothills to build new ecocities. “It’s difficult everywhere, all over the world, to develop something like cities in a sustainable way,” spoke Fanny Hoffman-Loss, the principle architect of the Nanhui eco-city that sits at the far edge of Shangha’s Pudong district. Though there are nearly 300 ecocities that are being built across China. That’s around one ecocity per every two municipalities in the entire country, and the trend is expected to grow until 50% of all new urban developments will flaunt the “eco” banner. These cities are sold as being a low polluting alternative to conventional cities, tend to have tight emissions standards, and are meant to be models for future urbanism. But does building any type of new city from scratch actually serve to better the environment in anyway? Who knows, but in the mean time these intriguing cutting edge developments can at least take our minds off the thick gray air that invariably hems them in.

    *  *  *

    While some say that tighter regulations on industrial pollution, stronger emission standards, and a quicker transition away from coal power would drastically improve the quality of China’s air, the PRC would apparently rather go with sci-fi-esque smog fighting drones, floating acid eating membranes, biodomes, air sprinkling skyscrapers, cloud seeding, and aerial liquid nitrogen blasters. China wants to have their emissions and breath clean air too, but even with squadrons of pollution scrubbers hovering over airtight domes in the middle of ecocities, ‘Airpocalypses’ will more than likely remain an integral part of the China experience for a long time yet.

  • Silent Majority: 55% Of Americans Want Independent To Run Against Trump, Clinton

    Submitted by Carey Wedler via TheAntiMedia.org,

    It’s happening! According to a new poll, Americans have finally maxed out their tolerance for “lesser evils” in presidential politics. The survey, published by independent research firm, Data Targeting, found a majority of Americans now want an independent candidate to take on Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump — two of the most disliked candidates in recent history.

    Researchers for the poll, conducted among 997 registered voters via both home and mobile phones this month, reported that “58% of respondents are dissatisfied with the current group of Republican and Democratic candidates for President” — and that 55 percent believe there should be an independent ticket (it is unclear why 3 percent apparently dislike the current candidates but puzzlingly do not think there should be another option). In perhaps the most extreme finding of the analysis, “a shocking 91% of voters under the age of 29 favor having an independent candidate on the ballot.” Considering younger generations’ lack of party allegiance and disillusionment with the status quo, their disapproval of Clinton and Trump seems predictable — but 91 percent constitutes near-total rejection.

    Tellingly, over 68 percent of participants in the poll were over the age of 50. Older generations are more likely to be attached to party identity, making their acceptance of other options a telling indicator of the populace’s distaste for their current options.

    The United States has notoriously clung to the narrow two-party duopoly for most of its history — even as the crafters of the Constitution, for all their staggering shortcomings, cautioned of the dangers of such myopic political representation and party allegiance.

    But considering the unpopularity of Trump and Clinton — the former has a 55 percent unfavorability liking, the latter 56 percent — Americans appear to be turning a corner on their perception of who deserves power in politics.

    In fact, 65 percent of poll respondents said they would be “at least somewhat, pretty or very willing to support a candidate for President who is not Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton” — a stark difference from 2012, when Americans resisted deviation from the norm. A Gallup poll from that year highlighted the nation’s two-party rigidity. “U.S. registered voters show limited support for third-party candidates…with the vast majority preferring Barack Obama or Mitt Romney,” analysts reported just a few months before the 2012 general election. They concluded about 5% of Americans would vote for a third-party candidate that year.

    Just four years later, however, that figure has exploded. As the Data Testing report explains:

    “In a ballot test against Clinton and Trump, a truly independent candidate starts off with 21% of the vote,” already far greater than 2012’s 5%. “But this number increases to 29% in the ‘Big Sky’ region, 30% in ‘New England’ and 28% in the ‘West’ region.”

    Independents were even more willing to break away from the options they’ve been given. “Among voters with an unfavorable opinion of both Trump and Clinton, the independent actually wins the ballot test,” researchers reported, noting that of the three options, 7 percent of respondents chose Clinton, 11 percent chose Trump, and a staggering 56 percent chose the unspecified third-party candidate. Though these ballot test findings are lower than the statistic that 65 percent would be open to breaking away from Clinton and Trump, the increase of third-party interest from 2012 remains palpably significant.

    It should be noted that Data Targeting is a GOP-affiliated political research firm, however, the results indicate little room for bias. In fact, they are paramount in an election where, as the analysis notes, Clinton and Trump provoke more animosity than enthusiasm. Perhaps highlighting lingering attachments to two-party thinking, Clinton’s highest unfavorability rating (78 percent) came from Republicans, while Trump’s highest unfavorability rating (71 percent) came from Democrats.

    Regardless, it is undeniable Americans are fed up with the system at large. According to another recent poll, just over half believe elections are rigged. Interest in third-party options, like the Libertarian and Green parties, is also steadily growing. As Ron Paul, the outspoken former presidential candidate, whose 2012 campaign was undermined by the media and Republican establishment, recently said, “I’ve never bought into this idea that the lesser of two evils is a good idea” — and Americans increasingly agree. According to a Gallup poll released last year, 43 percent of Americans identify as independent — the highest number in the history of the poll.

    Meanwhile, faith in mainstream media is also dwindling — and it tends to dip even lower in election years, as Americans observe the perpetual circus acts performed by corporate outlets.

    With contentious power struggles raging both within the major parties and between them, Americans appear to be sobering up to the realities of party dominance and loyalty as they evolve beyond their crumbling political past.

    It might have taken a shameless war criminal and a repugnant demagogue to finally wake Americans from their two-party stupor, but it’s happening — and it’s better late than never.

    third party

  • In An Interesting Turn Of Events, Russia Proposes Joint Missions With US In Syria

    In light of all of the recent tensions between the US and Russia, of which there have been many (here, here, here, here, and here), one would assume that Putin wouldn't be interested in working with the US on anything other than steering clear of each other for time being.

    However, as RT reports, Russia has extended an olive branch with the US. Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu recently told journalists that the US and Russia should fly joint missions together in Syria to fight ISIS.

    "Taking such a step would help the progress of the peace settlement in Syria. Of course such measures have been agreed with the Syrian Arab Republic. Yesterday we started negotiating these measures with our colleagues in Oman and Geneva.

     

    We suggest to the US, starting on May 25, joint action of the Russian Air Forces and the US-led coalition forces to plan and conduct strikes against the Al-Nusra Front, which does not support the ceasefire, as well as against convoys of arms and fighters crossing the Syrian-Turkish border."

    As RT explains, this puts the US in a difficult position due to the fact that the stance the US has taken all along has been that Assad would have to leave power for the conflict to end.

    The suggestion puts the US in a difficult situation from a legal and public relations standpoint. Washington for years has been treating Syrian President Bashar Assad as an illegitimate figure, rather than Syria’s head of state. The airstrikes it conducts in Syria are illegal because the US has neither a mandate from the UN Security Council nor an invitation from Damascus to use force in a sovereign nation’s territory.

     

    Moscow, for its part, was called upon by the Syrian government to help its army fight against terrorist forces. Joint Russian-US missions would technically require legal permission from Damascus to Washington, and asking for one would be a great embarrassment for the Obama administration and a serious blow for the Democratic Party, which would be exposed to Republican criticism in an election year.

    * * *

    Russia has clearly demonstrated that it doesn't need any help to get the job done in Syria. This is just one more opportunity for Vladimir Putin to embarrass the Obama administration on a global stage. If the US agrees, then it has to ask Assad for permission to operate in the country. If the US declines, then the world will look at it as the US turning its nose up at a chance to smooth relations with Russia and work for the common good. Either way, Putin wins again.

  • The Mother Of All Head & Shoulder Patterns Just Completed The Right Shoulder

    Submitted by Chirs Hamilton via Hambone's Stuff blog,

    The global economy and finances are all about growth (increasing flow) and not about equilibrium (stock).  The ultimate driver of growing economies and finance has been millenniums of population growth.  A growing quantity of people has meant more buyers, more consumers, more demand.  So, if the growth or flow of demand is waning…that should matter…a lot.  Like entering an ice age after 10,000 years of warm.  The expected response to something like that would be all out.  Not a surprise that 4 decades of central bank mandated interest rate cuts have been used to incent a decelerating base of consumer growth to debts untold.  It's all in a vain attempt to maintain centrally determined rates of growth far above what rising population, jobs, wages, and savings can sustain.
     

    QUANTITY of GROWTH

    Take a gander at the chart below, annual global population growth from 1950 to present and the OECD population growth estimations through 2050.  You might notice a…HEAD AND SHOULDERS pattern!!!  1988 was the head of annual global population growth…1973 was the left shoulder and 2012 was the right shoulder.
     
     
    But what if the OECD and their future estimates are wrong???  The chart below is annual population growth (in total) vs. the annual growth of the under 45yr/old global population.  The base of population growth (young) has caved in and only been masked by the 45+yr/olds living a decade or two longer than their parents.  However, this extension of lifespans vs. the previous generation is a one off.  The current young are not likely to live decades longer again than the current generation.  Simply put, we have significant population longevity among the wealth and rapidly waning population growth most everywhere except the very poorest.  As you may have noticed, it's a night and day difference.
     
     
    The chart below is the ultimate visual of stabilizing global population of young vs. globally swelling elderly populations.  What was a 9-1 ratio of babies (0-4yrs/old) per 75+yr/olds in 1950 has become a 2.7-1 ratio in 2016…and estimated to be a 1-1 ratio by 2050.  The global growth of young has essentially ceased but the growth of old is skyrocketing.
     
     

    QUALITY of GROWTH

    Where the growth is coming from broken down.  The chart below is global population growth split out among wealthy OECD, aspiring BRIICS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, S. Africa), and the RoW (rest of the world).  From an economic standpoint, the sources of quality growth are slowing and lesser sources unable to replace this loss.  Simply put, those with income, savings, and access to credit are able to consume significantly more than those without.
     
     
    A focus solely on the population growth of those under 45yrs/old removes the confusion of the older generations living far longer.  Below, as of 2016 all net under 45yr/old net population growth is among the poor RoW as all growth has ceased among the OECD and BRIICS.  Among the RoW, the majority of all younger population growth is Africa.  The same Africa where 1/3 of the nations have average incomes below that of Haiti.  Africa is not an engine of consumptive growth.
     
     
    The chart below is a simple multiplication of under 45yr/old annual population growth by average GDP per capita (capability to consume).  One look at that chart, and the implementation of NIRP & ZIRP plus the global debt bomb should be no surprise.  The collapse of growth has been underway for decades and central bankers and central planners are willing to do anything to maintain the appearance of "growth".
     
     

    Quality of Growth Really Matters 

    The final charts below show the impact of quality (income, savings, and especially access to and utilization of credit) over quantity of population growth.  The chart is a breakdown of oil consumption by the wealthy 1.3 billion OECD residents, 3.8 billion persons of China-India-Africa, and the 2 billion "Rest of the World".
     
     
    The chart below highlights the impact of rising wages but particularly (in China's case) the impact of rising credit / debt) in pushing Chinese oil consumption so far in advance of India or Africa over the same time frame.  Quantity + "quality" of credit growth.
     
     
    And a close up on China's rapidly slowing quantity of adult population growth vs. the equally rapid escalation of debt in place of population growth…and the impact to maintain China's "growth".  This sort of growth, particularly credit creation, is likely not reproducible in India or Africa (thank goodness for India and Africa).
     
     
    And below, another view of China's decelerating growth among its adult population (and as of 2018, outright declining adult population) and the only answer to maintain "growth" has been debt on an unprecedented scale.  What happens in China and globally as China's depopulation sets in…for decades….is unknowable.
     
     

    Conclusion

    China was, in essence, the right shoulder to the greatest head and shoulder pattern in the history of mankind.  Central banks and federal governments will do everything in their power to maintain the present system.  They will attempt anything and likely everything to maintain what ultimately cannot be maintained.  Unfortunately, no one knows how much is too much and the economic, financial, and societal ramifications.  Invest accordingly?!?

     

  • WTF Headline Of The Day: GOP Senator Says "US Is Under-Incarcerated," Should Lock Up More People

    Nobody in the world loves locking people behind bars as much as Americans do.  As we noted previously, we have more people in prison than any other nation on the planet.  We also have a higher percentage of our population locked up than anyone else does by a very large margin.  But has all of this imprisonment actually made us safer?  Well, the last time I checked, crime was still wildly out of control in America and for the most recent year that we have numbers for violent crime was up 15 percent.  The number of people that we have locked up has quadrupled since 1980, but this is not solving any of our problems.  Clearly, what we are doing is not working.

    Here is U.S. imprisonment rate per 100,000 people since 1880:

    Screen Shot 2015-02-12 at 3.05.01 PM

    Land of the free indeed…

    So, just in case anyone needed a little more crazy to end the week, Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) is here to help.

    Recall that last year the Arkansas Senator said that there were too many empty beds in Guantanamo…

    "In my opinion the only problem with Guantanamo Bay is there are too many empty beds and cells there right now. We should be sending more terrorists there for further interrogation to keep this country safe. As far as I'm concerned every last one of them can rot in hell."

    Enjoy…

     

    It appears as though the only thing on Cotton's mind is filling up jail cells, because now the Senator wants to enlarge US prisons so they can be filled up further. At a speech at the Hudson Institute, Cotton said that if anything, the US has an under-incarceration problem.

    "There's a bill in congress now that would sharply reduce mandatory minimums for a slew of federal crimes. The bill's advocates contend that we're locking up too many offenders, for too long, for too little, and we can't afford it anyway, and we should show more empathy toward those caught up in the criminal justice system. These arguments put simply are baseless. Take a look at the facts. First, the claim that too many criminals are being jailed, that there is over-incarceration, ignores an unfortunate fact. For the vast majority of crimes, the perpetrator is never identified, or arrested, let alone prosecuted, convicted, and jailed. Law enforcement is able to arrest or identify a likely perpetrator for only 19 percent of property crimes and 47 percent of violent crimes. If anything, we have an under-incarceration problem."

    Relevant portion begins at 9:20

    * * *

    Some fact bombs…

    There are 2.3 million Americans in prison or jail. The U.S. has 5 percent of the world’s population but 25 percent of its prisoners. One in three black men can expect to spend time in prison. There are 2.7 million minors with an incarcerated parent. The imprisonment rate has grown by more than 400 percent since 1970.

     

    Recent research suggests that incarceration has lost its potency. A report released this week from the Brennan Center for Justice at the New York University School of Law finds that increased incarceration has had a very limited effect on crime over the past two and a half decades.

     

    – From Five-Thrity-Eight article: The Imprisoner’s Dilemma

    Unfortunately for Mr Cotton, if jails could become larger and become more full than they already are, all of the world's problems would not simply go away. Perhaps Cotton should join a central bank so he can be amongst fellow "magic people," and live in denial of anecdotes, history, and facts.

    Perhap the following are 21 amazing facts about America’s obsession with prison might help Mr. Cotton…

    #1 There are more than 2.4 million people behind bars in America as you read this article.

    #2 Since 1980, the number of people incarcerated in U.S. prisons has quadrupled.

    #3 The incarceration rate in the United States is more than 4 times higher than the incarceration rate in the UK and more than 6 times higher than the incarceration rate in Canada.

    #4 Approximately 12 million people cycle through local jails in the U.S. each and every year.

    #5 Overall, the United States has the largest prison population and the highest incarceration rate in the entire world.

    #6 Approximately one out of every four prisoners on the entire planet are in U.S. prisons, but the United States only accounts for about five percent of the total global population.

    #7 The state of Maryland (total population 5.9 million) has more people in prison than Iraq (total population 31.9 million).

    #8 The state of Ohio (total population 11.6 million) has more people in prison than Pakistan (total population 192.1 million).

    #9 Incredibly, 41 percent of all young people in America have been arrested by the time they turn 23.

    #10 Between 1990 and 2009 the number of Americans in private prisons increased by about 1600 percent.

    #11 At this point, private prison companies operate more than 50 percent of all “youth correctional facilities” in this nation.

    #12 There are more African-Americans under “correctional supervision” right now than were in slavery in the United States in 1850.

    #13 Approximately 90 percent of those being held in prisons in the United States are men.

    #14 The incarceration rate for African-American men is more than 6 times higher than it is for white men.

    #15 An astounding 37.2 percent of African-American men from age 20 to age 34 with less than a high school education were incarcerated in 2008.

    #16 Police in New York City conducted nearly 700,000 “stop-and-frisk searches” in 2011 alone.

    #17 The “SWATification” of America has gotten completely and totally out of control.  Back in 1980, there were only about 3,000 SWAT raids in the United States for the entire year.  Today, there are more than 80,000 SWAT raids in the United States every single year.

    #18 Illegal immigrants make up approximately 30 percent of the total population in our federal, state and local prisons.

    #19 The average “minimum security” inmate in federal prison costs U.S. taxpayers $21,000 a year.

    #20 The average “maximum security” inmate in federal prison costs U.S. taxpayers $33,000 a year.

    #21 Overall, it costs more than 60 billion dollars a year to keep all of these people locked up.

    *  *  *

    Finally, we wonder just how much funding Mr. Cotton gets from The Deep State private prisons?

  • Leaking Las Vegas: Lake Mead Plunges To Lowest Level Ever As "The Problem Is Not Going Away"

    The hopes of an El Nino-driven refill from last summer's plunging levels of the nation's largest reservoir have been dashed as AP reports Lake Mead water levels drop to new record lows (since it was filled in the 1930s) leaving Las Vegas facing existential threats unless something is done. Las Vegas and its 2 million residents and 40 million tourists a year get almost all their drinking water from the Lake and at levels below 1075ft, the Interior Department will be forced to declare a "shortage," which will lead to significant cutbacks for Arizona and Nevada. As one water research scientist warned, "this problem is not going away and it is likely to get worse, perhaps far worse, as climate change unfolds."

    As USA Today reports, the nation’s largest reservoir has broken a record, declining to the lowest level since it was filled in the 1930s.

    Lake Mead reached the new all-time low on Wednesday night, slipping below a previous record set in June 2015.

     

    The downward march of the reservoir near Las Vegas reflects enormous strains on the over-allocated Colorado River. Its flows have decreased during 16 years of drought, and climate change is adding to the stresses on the river.

     

    As the levels of Lake Mead continue to fall, the odds are increasing for the federal government to declare a shortage in 2018, a step that would trigger cutbacks in the amounts flowing from the reservoir to Arizona and Nevada. With that threshold looming, political pressures are building for California, Arizona and Nevada to reach an agreement to share in the cutbacks in order to avert an even more severe shortage.

     

    “This problem is not going away and it is likely to get worse, perhaps far worse, as climate change unfolds,” said Brad Udall, a senior water and climate research scientist at Colorado State University. “Unprecedented high temperatures in the basin are causing the flow of the river to decline. The good news is that we have time and the smarts to manage this, if all the states work together.”

     

    He said that will require “making intelligent but difficult changes to how we have managed the river in the past.”

     

    As of Thursday afternoon, the lake’s level stood at an elevation of about 1,074.6 feet.

    Lake Mead water levels sink to a new record low – notably ahead of the seasonally-normal lows…

    Under the federal guidelines that govern reservoir operations, the Interior Department would declare a shortage if Lake Mead’s level is projected to be below 1,075 feet as of the start of the following year. In its most recent projections, the Bureau of Reclamation calculated the odds of a shortage at 10 percent in 2017, while a higher likelihood – 59 percent – at the start of 2018.

    But those estimates will likely change when the bureau releases a new study in August. Rose Davis, a public affairs officer for the Bureau of Reclamation, said if that study indicates the lake’s level is going to be below the threshold as of Dec. 31, a shortage would be declared for 2017.

    That would lead to significant cutbacks for Arizona and Nevada. California, which holds the most privileged rights to water from the Colorado River, would not face reductions until the reservoir hits a lower trigger point.

     

    As AP concludes,

    Officials in Nevada, Arizona and California are working on a deal to keep water in the lake by giving up some of their Colorado River water.

     

    The river serves about 40 million residents in seven Southwest states. Two key points are lakes Powell and Mead, the largest reservoir in the system.

     

    Lake Mead's high-water capacity is 1,225 feet above sea level. It reaches so-called "dead pool" at just under 900 feet, meaning nothing would flow downstream from Hoover Dam.

    As population growth and heavy demand for water collide with hotter temperatures and reduced snowpack in the future, there will be an even greater mismatch between supply and demand, said Kelly Sanders, an assistant professor at the University of Southern California who specializes in water and energy issues.

    “The question becomes how to resolve this mismatch across states that all depend on the river to support their economic growth,” Sanders said. She expects incentives and markets to help ease some of the strains on water supplies, “but it is going to be tricky to make the math work in the long term.”

  • What Does The Next OPEC Meeting Have In Store?

    Submitted by Rakesh Upadhyay via OilPrice.com,

    The next OPEC meeting on the 2nd of June will act as little more than a forum for continued altercations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

    The 2 June 2016 OPEC meeting will be held amid a backdrop of oil prices near $50 per barrel, a sharp drop in Nigerian production due to sabotage, turmoil in Venezuela, Saudi Arabia operating with a new oil minister, and Iran aggressively pumping close to pre-sanction levels.

    OPEC interactions have become a direct altercation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with the remaining members reduced to mere observers.

    The new Saudi oil minister, Khalid al-Falih, will be attending his first OPEC meeting, but experts doubt he will have the same clout and skills as the outgoing Saudi oil minister, Ali bin Ibrahim Al-Naimi.

    “OPEC’s unity is now in the spotlight more than ever,” said an OPEC official. “Would we ever see a minister that carries the same weight as Naimi? I don’t think so, especially as it is clear now that decisions are in the hands of the deputy crown prince,” reports The Wall Street Journal.

    The Prince outlined his strategy in “Vision 2030”, and a major step in that direction is the listing of the state-owned oil company Aramco.

    In order to gain additional traction for the proposed listing, the Saudis will continue their aggressive stance in OPEC, and keep all the oil producers on the hook, a glimpse of which was given by the new Saudi Aramco Chief executive Amin Nasser.

    “Whatever the call on Saudi Aramco, we will meet it,” Mr. Nasser said. “There will always be a need for additional production. Production will increase upward in 2016,” reports The Financial Times.

    Though Mr. Nasser did not hint at the percentage increase, even a small increase will add to the supply glut, because Aramco produces around 9.54 million barrels per day (bpd).

    On the other hand, its adversary—Iran—has quickly ramped up production to 3.56 million barrels per day and is on course to reach its targeted output of 4 million bpd.

    Iran has increased its market share in the excess supply environment by offering large discounts, undercutting the Saudi and Iraqi prices for their deliveries to Asia.

    Though Iran had initially hinted at joining any production freeze once it reached its target of 4 million bpd, the heightened tensions with Saudi show no signs of abating.

    “Our main competitor is Saudi Arabia,” Amir Hossein Zamaninia, Iran’s deputy oil minister for international affairs, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

    Mr. Zamaninia said Iran disapproves of increased politicization of the OPEC. “In the Southern Persian Gulf, oil is becoming a political commodity, more than an economic commodity,” he said. “OPEC is in a difficult situation.”

    He said that without solutions to the conflicts in Syria and Yemen, an agreement is unlikely.

    The relations between the two warring nations have reached a new low, with Iran refusing participation in the Hajj pilgrimage. The negotiations between the delegates of the two nations ended in conflict.

    Considering the existing tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, if the OPEC meeting ends without a fight, it should be considered an achievement.

    The proposal by the Kuwaiti deputy foreign minister Khaled Jarallah for the member nations to freeze production is a feeble attempt to support prices.

    “It is clear that Mohammed bin Salman wants to confront Iran not just in the Middle East but in the energy markets,” Amir Handjani, a member of the Board of Directors of the Dubai-based RAK Petroleum, told RT. He said that it was unlikely that Prince Salman will back down now. “And certainly the Iranians are not going to back down either,” reports Hellenic Shipping News.

    While these two nations continue their slugfest in the OPEC meeting, the smaller nations have no choice but to remain mute spectators, dreaming of their glory days.

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Today’s News 20th May 2016

  • First Italy, Now Greek Banks Being Investigated For 'Funding' Politicians, Media

    With Trump going after billionaire-funded media in America, and Italy facing probes over its banking-system-controlled media, it is perhaps no surprise that yet another generally corrupt nation – Greece – is facing a parliamentary committee investigation into spuriously large 'bank loans' and highly-concentrated advertising spend made to various political parties and media groups in 2015.

    The Parliamentary Inquiry Commission decided on Wednesday to investigate the advertising expenditure of Greek banks to the media over a period of the last 10 years. As KeepTalking Greece reports, the Commission investigates in general the legality of  bank loans to political parties as well as loans to mass media groups. The extension of mandate to investigate also the bank advertisement to media was submitted by SYRIZA MP Annetta Kavvadia, a former journalist.

    According to Kavvadia, “70% of the bank advertising expenditure was distributed among five media and media groups in 2015″ and that the citizens had a right to know that while the banks were stopping loans to Small & Medium Enterprises they were profusely posting ads in the same media that had taken loans from them.”

     

    <span title="«???? ?????????? ?? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ???????? ?? ???????????? ??? ??? ???????? ?? ????? ????? ?????? ??? ??? ????? ???????? ??? ??????????? ?? ?? ?????????????», ??????? ? ????????? ??? ??????.

    “>“It is interesting to see what amounts of money were given by the banks to particular media companies that allegedly had taken loans form the same banks and were unable to service these loans, ” Kavvadia said.

     

    <span title="«???? ?????????? ?? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ???????? ?? ???????????? ??? ??? ???????? ?? ????? ????? ?????? ??? ??? ????? ???????? ??? ??????????? ?? ?? ?????????????», ??????? ? ????????? ??? ??????.

    “>New Democracy representative at the Committee rejected Kavvadias’ proposal claiming that it went beyond the Committee’s mandate and did not support the proposal.

     

    <span title="«???? ?????????? ?? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ???????? ?? ???????????? ??? ??? ???????? ?? ????? ????? ?????? ??? ??? ????? ???????? ??? ??????????? ?? ?? ?????????????», ??????? ? ????????? ??? ??????.

    “>The representatives of SYRIZA, Independent Greeks, Golden Dawn, KKE, Centrists’ Union, voted in favor, GD asked an investigation ever since 2002. PASOK and To Potami voted “present”.

     

    The Comm<span title="? ???????? ????????? ?????, ??????? ?? ????? ????????? ???? ???????? ??? ?? ????? ????? ??????????? ?? ???????????? ???????? ??? ??? ?????????? ??????? ?? ???? ??? ???, ????? ??? ???????? ??? ??????? ????????? ????????? ??? ?????????? ?????.

    “>ittee decided unanimously to give a deadline to banks until the end of May in order to provide data for the repayment of loans in euros by the media as well as data about loans to regional press.

     

    <span title="? ???????? ????????? ?????, ??????? ?? ????? ????????? ???? ???????? ??? ?? ????? ????? ??????????? ?? ???????????? ???????? ??? ??? ?????????? ??????? ?? ???? ??? ???, ????? ??? ???????? ??? ??????? ????????? ????????? ??? ?????????? ?????.

    “>The Committee Chairman said that “we <span title="? ???????? ??? ??????????? ???????? ???????? ?????????? ??? «?? ??????????? ?? ????????? ?? ??????? ?????????? ???? ????????? ??? ??????? ??? ???? ????? (????????) ??? ???????? ?? ?? ???? ??????????».
    “>will investigate whether the requirements of advertising rules were met the bank had also another relation (loan) with the media.”

     

    Last month, four Greek systemic banks had published their expenditure on advertisement for 2015. Yes, it was striking to see that certain media groups had received large amount of money, something like half a million euro by one bank over the period of one year.

     

    Will the Parliamentary Committee be able to shed a light into dark corridors of the famous Greek political and media scene?

     

    The general rule was that political parties would give as guarantee for the loans the funding they would receive from the state. Too bad, the economic crash since 2010 brought the political system upside down. As for the big “systemic” media groups, well… they often got new loans in order to help them pay back their old loans and they sank in debts as Greece with the bailouts.

    Excerpt from Giorgos Pleios Interview about “The Greek media, the oligarchs and the new Media Law.”

    Greece is one of those countries in southern Europe where there is a close relationship and interdependence between media and political power – economic as well as political- both on an institutional and an ideological level.  The model describing the relationship between mass media, the state and political elites is that of vested interests as often described in the political discourse and scientific research. This practically means that mass media owners in Greece – also owners of other businesses (eg construction and shipping companies, new technologies and health services firms, etc.) tend to provide political support to political parties, especially those at power or likely to form  a new government.

     

    On the other hand, the political parties in Greece tend to provide financial and administrative support to media owners and the companies owned by the so called “oligarchs”, in exchange for their political support. This is done through the assignment of public works (i.e roads and government buildings construction etc.) as well as government advertising, public property management, etc at scandalously profitable terms and in return for political support.”

     

    George Pleios is Head of the Department of Communication and Media Studies at the National and Kapodestrian University of Athens.

    full interview in English here.

    Odd that all the media that received the large amounts of advertisement were also pro Bailout- and Austerity-supporters ever since 2010. Odd? Hardly…

  • NSA Participated In the Worst Abuses of the Iraq War

    You know the CIA was involved with some of the least savory aspects of the Iraq War.

    But the NSA got its hands dirty, as well.

    The Intercept reports:

    In the first months of the Iraq War, SIDtoday [an internal NSA newsletter] articles bragged about the NSA’s part in the run-up to the invasion and reflected the Bush administration’s confidence that Saddam Hussein had hidden weapons of mass destruction.

     

    At the United Nations, readers were told, “timely SIGINT [signals intelligence – i.e. spying on electronic and related communications, which is what NSA does] played a critical role” in winning adoption of resolutions related to Iraq, including by providing “insights into the nuances of internal divisions among the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.”

    Specifically:

    SIGINT support [by NSA] to the U.S. Mission to the United Nations [i.e. American diplomats] has enabled and continues to enable the diplomatic campaign against Iraq. Your efforts have been essential to the plans of the U.S. Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador John D. Negroponte [a lovely gentleman], as well as to the United Kingdom’s Permanent Representative, HMA Sir Jeremy Greenstock.

     

    (S//SI) Ambassador Negroponte took time in February 2003 to provide unsolicited feedback on the quality, timeliness, and quantity of NSA reporting. He said that he could not imagine better intelligence support for diplomatic activity than he receives from the daily NSA reporting on Iraq and the UN. He was especially grateful for the timeliness of the information and asked our representative at the U.S. Mission to the UN, … to pass his thanks to the many people involved in its production and delivery. His only complaint was that “there’s just so much good stuff to read and so little time to do it!” Ambassador Negroponte has been an avid user of SIGINT for many years and visited NSA in February 2002, exclaiming that he has never received better support in his 40-year diplomatic career. It is our hope that the Ambassador will visit NSA again when the frenzy of the Iraqi crisis subsides.

     

    ***

     

    For his part, Ambassador Greenstock, on the very day in February that he tabled the UK-US-Spain “second resolution” on Iraq, intrigued by the close UK-US intelligence cooperation, said that SIGINT insights into the nuances of internal divisions among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (the “P5”) were highly useful, enabling him to decide what line to take with P5 counterparts in New York and Washington and to temper the language of his diplomatic forays. On 5 February, the day that Secretary of State Powell made his presentation at the UN Security Council and, as a direct result of SIGINT reporting, a last-minute amendment was made to the UK Foreign Secretary’s speech, making the point that UNMOVIC inspections had already been substantially reinforced.

    And:

    SIGINT support to USUN’s [U.S. ambassadors to the UN] diplomatic efforts concerning Iraq has been exceptional. Timely

     

    SIGINT played a critical role in the unanimous adoption of UN Security Council Resolutions 1441 (strengthened the inspection regime and demanded Iraq disarm or face serious consequences) and 1472 (revised the humanitarian aid program for Iraq).

    Remember, the NSA conducts widespread industrial espionage on our allies, such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, United Nations, the Vatican and the Pope, France, the leaders of Germany, Brazil and Mexico, the European Union, the European Parliament, the G20 summit, and at least 35 world leaders.

    And the United States Trade Representative is one of the “customers” of NSA data.

    As Edward Snowden wrote about mass surveillance by the NSA:

    These programs were never about terrorism: they’re about economic spying, social control, and diplomatic manipulation. They’re about power.

    Too bad the Iraq War was a total fiasco …

    In a separate article, the Intercept notes that the NSA participated in torture:

    Personnel from the National Security Agency worked alongside the military, CIA, and other agencies on interrogations at Guantánamo in the early days of the war on terror, new documents show.

     

    ***

     

    The NSA’s liaison, or NSA LNO, would “coordinate” with interrogators “to collect information of value to the NSA Enterprise and Extended Enterprise” and be “responsible for interfacing with the DoD, CIA, and FBI interrogators on a daily basis in order to assess and exploit information sourced from detainees.” In some instances, the relationship would go the other way, with the NSA providing “sensitive NSA-collected technical data and products to assist JTF-GTMO [Joint Task Force Guantánamo] interrogation efforts.”

     

    ***

     

    An NSA liaison reported back on his trip. “On a given week,” he wrote, he would “pull together intelligence to support an upcoming interrogation, formulate questions and strategies for the interrogation, and observe or participate in the interrogation.”

     

    Outside work, “fun awaits,” he enthused. “Water sports are outstanding: boating, paddling, fishing, water skiing and boarding, sailing, swimming, snorkeling, and SCUBA.” If water sports were “not your cup of tea,” there were also movies, pottery, paintball, and outings to the Tiki Bar. “Relaxing is easy,” he concluded.

     

    ***

     

    NSA analysts were also intimately involved in interrogations in Iraq; a December 2003 call for volunteers to deploy to Baghdad as counterterrorism analysts with the Iraq Survey Group, which was leading the search for Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction, said that “the selectee will, in all likelihood, be involved in the interrogation/questioning of potential leads,” as well as “the evaluation and analysis of interrogation reports and other HUMINT-based reports.”

    Too bad torture decreases our national security

    In 2014, the Intercept pointed out that NSA has also been key in targeting people for assassination by drone. Too bad we don’t know who most of the people we’re killing are …

  • Is China A "House Of Cards"?

    Authored by Pepe Escobar, originally posted Op-Ed at SputnikNews.com,

    Let’s start by examining what the Dragon himself – President Xi Jinping – has to say about China being largely derided in influential Beltway circles as a House of Cards.

    Xi has forcefully dismissed the notion that a House of Cards power struggle has been raging at the rarified heights of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Yet at the same time he’s adamant; “conspirators”, “careerists”, “cabals” and “cliques” are attempting to undermine the CCP from within.

    Thus, with ironic/poetic justice, a 42-part series on corruption in China – titled In the Name of the People and financed by the Middle Kingdom’s top law enforcement agency – is bound to go live before the end of 2016, featuring a CCP stalwart as the bad guy (that’s a first). Call him the Chinese Frank Underwood.

    This means that what Xi is saying – and acting — live will be mirrored on hundreds of millions of Chinese screens, pitting conflicting factions within the 88 million-member CCP. Xi’s war on corruption has produced a rash of severely disgruntled CCP officials – to put it mildly.

    Xi not only is the Commander-in-Chief in the fight against corruption; he’s now Commander-in-Chief of China’s joint battle command center as well. He monitors a [Central Military Commission] Chairman Responsibility System as well as the central guard corps, which monitors the security of all other CCP heavyweights.Add to these Xi’s status as CCP’s general secretary, chairman of the Central Military Commission, president of the national security commission and head of the top group for reform of the Chinese system, and a Harvard academic who refers to him as “the chairman of everything” does not seem to be that far off the mark.

    Yet even this awesome concentration of power does not mean that Xi is an unassailable deity. On the key drama – the state of the economy – it has emerged that in a recent interview by the People’s Daily with an anonymous “authoritative person”, printed on the front page and exposing deep economic divergence among the CCP leadership, the “authoritative person” in question was none other than Xi.

    He had to take to the key media read by anyone who’s anyone in China to press his point on how to fix China’s debt-ridden economy; low growth is OK, and the new normal; as for blind credit expansion/monetary easing, that’s not OK. Xi, once again, is adamant; it’s now or never to start a painful restructuring of the Chinese system.

    Beware the “nests of foreign spies”

    Xi Jinping does wield astonishing power. There can’t be any other way. Imagine the man on top of a civilization-state of 5,000 years who needs, among myriad other crucial issues, to; tweak/manage an economic system that was successful for over 30 years but now needs to be upgraded; shift the system from export-led demand to domestic consumption; manage the aspirations – and broken dreams – of a vast working class including millions of newly unemployed; reorganize monster state-owned enterprises (SOEs); find ways to get rid of Himalayas of bad bank loans and “nonperforming” investments; downsize and at the same time vitally upgrade the Chinese military.

    And if that was not enough, Beijing has to be fully alert 24/7 about all those non-stop Pentagon provocations – actual and rhetorical – centered in the South China Sea.

    You’ve got to be alert. Full time. All the time. And be alert at “foreign hostile forces” or, more plainly, “nests of foreign spies” who want you to be mired in chaos. Thus the new law on NGOs operating in China. There are too many — over 7,000. And the (hidden) agenda for quite a few – from NED to the Soros gang — is to try to promote pure, unadulterated color revolution, as difficult as that may be in ultra-regimented China.Yet it worked in Brazil – a BRICS weak link. The CCP leadership has carefully – and silently – understood the Brazilian lesson, and is fully aware that Exceptionalistan would stop at nothing to slow down China’s already spectacular global reach. So if you’re a NGO operating in China, from now on you need to find an official Chinese sponsor and register with local police.

    Back to the Chinese economy, the mantra across multiple, powerful Beltway factions is that a crash is imminent. Once again; the House of Cards theme.

    China’s total debt is now a whopping 280% of GDP. That includes the 115% that apply to SOEs’ debts; in Japan, for instance, that SOE figure is only 31%. Yet what really matters is that only a maximum of 25% of Chinese SOEs’ debts will need to be restructured.

    Xi’s strategy is that the Goddess of the Market will turbo-charge those SOEs, not kill them. So forget about the CPP handing out control of the Chinese economy to companies that the CCP itself does not control. No wonder what’s left for US Big Capital’s spokespersons is to carp about a House of Cards.

    All eyes on 2021

    It’s never enough to remind everyone that absolutely everything that’s happening in China now is subordinated to Xi’s official target of achieving “a moderately prosperous society” (xiaokang shehui) by the 100th anniversary of the CCP’s founding, in 2021.

    That’s a mere five years from now. More long term, 2049, is the target of achieving a “socialist modernized society” (shehuizhuyi xiandaihua shehui) with a $30,000 GDP per capita; that should tie in with the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

    Beijing’s army of planners estimate that this overwhelming target is achievable if the Middle Kingdom is able to produce over 30% of global GDP by 2049; for comparison, that’s about 1 and ½ times more than the proportion currently produced by the US (and considering that the US does not manufacture much apart from weapons and infotech.)

    As breathtaking as this vision may be, it’s always reduced by the same old catastrophist Western “experts” to variations of Xi being the new Mao Zedong. That’s so pedestrian. The men – and the historical contexts – are radically diverse. Mao decided on a few core issues by himself – and left the rest to his underlings. The Little Helmsman Deng Xiaoping was a man of consensus. Xi decides by himself on virtually everything – but he does pay attention to some selected advisers. Examples include the Ministry of Trade, which first came up with the concept that developed into the New Silk Roads, and Liu He, the advisor who conceptualized Xi’s current economic strategy.

    The fact that Xi is now designated as the “core” (hexin) of the Beijing leadership is not such a big (Maoist) deal. The word in Beijing is that an assembly line of editors is now compiling a book of Xi thought (sixiang) that would make him as crucial as Mao as a contributor to Sino-Marxist theory. So what? Xi is a man in a rush, on a roll and with a mission – and 2021 is just around the corner. House of Cards? No; this looks more like a case of Xi landing a Full House on the table.

  • The Shift To A Cashless Society Is Snowballing

    Love it or hate it, cash is playing an increasingly less important role in society.

    In some ways this is great news for consumers. The rise of mobile and electronic payments means faster, convenient, and more efficient purchases in most instances. New technologies are being built and improved to facilitate these transactions, and improving security is also a priority for many payment providers.

    However, as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins explains, there is also a darker side in the shift to a cashless society. Governments and central banks have a different rationale behind the elimination of cash transactions, and as a result, the so-called “war on cash” is on.

     

    Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

     

    ON THE PATH TO A CASHLESS SOCIETY

    The Federal Reserve estimates that there will be $616.9 billion in cashless transactions in 2016. That’s up from around $60 billion in 2010.

    Despite the magnitude of this overall shift, what is happening from country to country varies quite considerably. Consider the contradicting evidence between Sweden and Germany.

    In Sweden, about 59% of all consumer transactions are cashless, and hard currency makes up just 2% of the economy. Yet, across the Baltic Sea, Germans are far bigger proponents of modern cash. This should not be too surprising, considering that the German words for “debt” and “guilt” are the exact same.

    Within Germany, only 33% of consumer transactions are cashless, and there are only 0.06 credit cards in existence per person.

    THE DARK SIDE OF CASHLESS

    The shift to a cashless society is even gaining momentum in Germany, but it is not because of the willing adoption from the general public. According to Handelsblatt, a leading German business newspaper, a proposal to eliminate the €500 note while capping all cash transactions at €5,000 was made in February by the junior partner of the coalition government.

    Governments have been increasingly pushing for a cashless society. Ostensibly, by having a paper trail for all transactions, such a move would decrease crime, money laundering, and tax evasion. France’s finance ministerrecently stated that he would “fight against the use of cash and anonymity in the French economy” in order to prevent terrorism and other threats. Meanwhile, former Secretary of the Treasury and economist Larry Summers has called for scrapping the U.S. $100 bill – the most widely used currency note in the world.

    “SMOOTHER” AGGREGATE DEMAND?

    It’s not simply an argument of the above government rationale versus that of privacy and anonymity. Perhaps the least talked-about implication of a cashless society is the way that it could potentially empower central banking to have more ammunition in “smoothing” out the way people save and spend money.

    By eliminating the prospect of cash savings, monetary policy options like negative interest rates would be much more effective if implemented. All money would presumably be stored under the same banking system umbrella, and even the most prudent savers could be taxed with negative rates to encourage consumer spending.

    While there are certainly benefits to using digital payments, our view is that going digital should be an individual consumer choice that can be based on personal benefits and drawbacks. People should have the voluntary choice of going plastic or using apps for payment, but they shouldn’t be pushed into either option unwillingly.

    Forced banishment of cash is a completely different thing, and we should be increasingly wary and suspicious of the real rationale behind such a scheme.

  • Former Hedgeye And Business Insider Employee Arrested For Robbing Three Banks

    The last time we heard the name Vincent Veneziani was several years ago, when he was at Business Insider, a close friend with all of Henry Blodget’s editors and writers, writing stories about Wall Street criminals and frauds such as “Ponzi Schemer Kenneth Starr’s Super Swanky Upper East Side Condo Just Sold For $5.63 Million” and “The Complete Story Of How Lenny Dykstra Went From The Top Of The World To The Jailhouse.” The inherent irony here will become evident in a few moments.

    Shortly thereafter the mid-20s Veneziani disappeared from the media world radar, only to write a book, and then reappear in the financial world, this time as an employee of the always entertaining “paid-to-promote-hedge-fund-research” outfit known as Hedgeye, where according to his bio he worked as an Editor.

     

    Unfortunately for Veneziani, he only managed to remain employed at Hedgeye for a little over a year, until the spring of 2013 when things went terribly wrong for the young man, who mysteriously disappeared from the face of the earth for the next several years.  The former New Yorker, then reappeared, now as a resident of the poorest city in the US, Camden, NJ, where he wrote the following disturbing story just two months ago on March 9, describing what had happened to him shortly after he left Hedgeye, and Wall Street, for good.

    The End of a Long Road of Crime

     

    In May of 2013, I was 27-years-old and had just been laid off from a cushy job on Wall Street that I had worked at for a little over a year. I also was about a year into a full blown heroin addiction that drained me of time, energy, and especially money. I was broke and dope sick and not thinking right. After asking everyone I knew for money and coming up short, I decided to rob a small coffee shop on Broadway in West Harlem that was near my apartment. Not only did I rob the cashier at knifepoint, I hit the same spot two weeks later and did it again because it was so easy. I didn’t even realize I was committing armed robbery because I had never committed a (serious) crime before and had never been arrested save for a sealed and expunged DUI I got when I was 19-years-old.

     

    I thought I was fine but in the first week of June, I was arrested and the detectives had a mountain of evidence against me. The jig was up. Now I had lost my job, apartment, fiance, family and my spirit. It sucked.

     

    I quickly got shipped off to Rikers Island seeing as how I was unable to make $30,000 bail. I would end up spending a total of 18 months on Rikers between 2013 and 2014. It was hell. That place will break any man into pieces and I wouldn’t wish it on my worst enemy.

     

    Thanks to a Legal Aid attorney named Raoul Zaltzberg, who actually gave a shit about my case, and extensive interviews with ADA Tiana Walton and Judge Farber in Manhattan Supreme Court, it was agreed that I was not a menace to society. That yes, I had fucked up royally, but deserved rehabilitation instead of 10 to 30 years upstate in a maximum security prison.

     

    I was given a plea deal that called for 18 months of inpatient and outpatient treatment followed by five years probation. Considering that I was indicted on two counts of First Degree Robbery in Manhattan, this is as good as it gets. Once I completed the 18 months of treatment, the two counts would drop to Third Degree Robbery, a non-violent felony that carries significantly less time and repercussions if rearrested but a felony nonetheless.

     

    Yesterday, Raoul, who is now a private attorney with his own practice (I was one of his first clients and remain loyal to him), Tiana and I walked into Judge Farber’s court and finalized everything. I had completed the 18 months of treatment despite a hiccup or two and would be starting probation. Five long years of being monitored by the state. It’s quite daunting if you think about it: even getting pulled over for a speeding ticket counts as “Police Contact” and can get you jammed up with your PO.

     

    But I fought a long and hard road and lost everything in my life and then some. It’s OK though. I’ve learn to become a better person and in a couple months, I’ll be turning 30-years-old. While getting a decent job has been next to impossible, as has affordable housing, I am lucky enough to have found a woman who loves me for who I am and doesn’t judge me despite my past mistakes and addiction. She is wonderful and nothing short of amazing. I have clothes on my back, gainful employment and even a car to get around South New Jersey and Philadelphia with thanks to my father, who bought it for me knowing that it would improve my chances of succeeding and rebuilding my life. It took me a long time to get over losing a woman I was supposed to marry and my many expensive material objects. I was young, successful, a published author, working in finance and living the dream in New York City. I’m no longer that person, but things happen for a reason and I am fine with all of this change. It’s for the best.

     

    2016 is clearly a year for milestones. I can’t even describe how good it feels to finally close the books on this last chapter of my 20s and to move on to my 30s knowing I no longer have to check in with Judge Farber every 45-50 days and spend tons of money on programs and classes that are designed to be Medicaid profit machines. Like I said, five years of probation is a long time but it’s nothing I can’t handle. I have the tools, I have the support system in place and most importantly, I’m happy.

     

    I didn’t think I would ever be happy again and didn’t deserve to be happy. I was wrong. Here’s to exploring the next chapter of my life and staying out of trouble.

    In other words, Vincent is what, according to some Bloomberg “journalists”, would classify as a credible source.

    Sarcasm about “competitors” aside, things were about to truly spin out of control for the now 29-year old Veneziani who as it turned out never learned to become a “better person.” Instead he become a grizzled criminal.

    The first hint of this was revealed just over a month after Veneziani wrote the above post, on April 23 when the Evesham Township Police department issued the following request for public help to track down a wanted criminal.

    Evesham Township Bank Robbed, Public’s Help Needed

     

    The Evesham Police Department is asking for the public’s assistance in identifying a male who robbed the TD Bank, 336 W. Rt. 70 on April 23, 2016, at approximately 1:19pm Saturday afternoon. The white male entered the bank, approached a teller and handed her a note demanding money. The male then fled the bank on foot towards a nearby Wawa parking lot.

     

     

     

     

    If anyone knows the identity of this suspect you are asked to contact the Evesham Police Department at 856-983-1116, the Confidential Tip Line at 856-983-4699 or email at Facebook@Eveshampd.org. Anonymous tips text ETPDTIP to 847411

    The identity of the perpetrator was revealed just days later when the bank robber was promptly caught. This is what the Courier-Post wrote:

    The same man is behind at least three bank robberies in Camden County this month, prosecutors say.

     

    Vincent Venezian[i], 29, was arrested Monday by Cherry Hill Police in connection with a robbery earlier that day at the Wells Fargo Bank on Evesham Road. Police said he entered the bank at about 3:13 p.m. and passed a note to the teller demanding cash; he fled with an undisclosed amount but was [arrested] a short time later.

     

    The Camden County Prosecutor’s Office said the Cherry Hill man is also responsible for two other robberies earlier this month: one at the Fulton Bank branch in Voorhees on April 4 and another at the TD Bank in Marlton on April 23.

     

    Venezian[i] faces robbery and drug charges and is in Camden County Jail on $60,000 bail.

    And so ends, this time for good, yet anoter semi-repentant attempt of one former drug-addicted Wall Streeter to get his life, and career, back in order. And failing.

    At this point, if we were Bloomberg, we would immediately use this psychologically unstable heroin addict as a source of clickbaiting “information” on either of his prior two employers, whether Business Insider or Hedgeye. But since we realize just how troubled this totally lost young man is, and since we are not Bloomberg, we won’t.

    As for Veneziani, we hope that one day he will put his life back in order and may truly recover.

  • The Clinton Campaign Has No Idea How To Attack Donald Trump

    As the Clinton campaign turns its attention to Donald Trump (or tries to at least), it is encountering one of the many things that makes running against 'The Teflon Don' difficult: With everything he has said and done, how is it possible to focus on only a few key things to attack him on.

    "Our problem is a target-rich environment" said one Clinton ally, noting that nearly every day there is a news cycle with damaging headlines about Trump.

    Aside from a target rich environment, Trump has been so unpredictable that it's hard to use any one thing and turn it into a narrative strong enough to actually impact voter opinions.

    "Right now, they're doing a little bit of everything to see what works. You can spend all day, every day, going after a hundred different things, and those things can add up to less than one hundred. They may not weave into a narrative, or you may not be able to drive any one of them home for long enough. You need discipline." said Dan Pfeiffer, a former senior adviser to President Obama.

    As Clinton struggles to define Trump, her campaign has taken the approach of throwing things against the wall and seeing what sticks. As Politico reports, first on the list of things to try is the talking point that a Trump presidency would be terrible for women.

    “What’s really clear,” Neera Tanden, Clinton’s former top policy adviser, said on a conference call with reporters, “is Donald Trump has made it entirely clear throughout the entirety of his campaign that he would be a terrible choice for women voters.

    The next trial balloon would be to try and play up that Trump would be bad for Latinos and middle-class Americans.

    That clarion message, however, was not amplified the next day. Instead, the follow-up was a call with Labor Secretary Tom Perez, who urged reporters to “think about what Trump’s plans mean for Latinos. Middle-class Americans and Latinos would pay the price for his reckless quest to continue enriching the billionaires.

    Finally, Clinton personally picked the fact that Trump will be the first candidate in the past 40 years not to release a tax return as her issue to run up the flag pole. Which is dripping with irony since Clinton herself won't reveal any Wall Street speech transcripts

    Clinton herself chose to highlight a third issue while stumping in New Jersey, where she surprised her aides by uncharacteristically engaging with an audience member who yelled out a question about Trump’s tax returns.

    “You’ve got to ask yourself,” she responded from the stage, “why doesn’t he want to release them? Yeah, well, we’re going to find out.

    While Clinton struggles mightily, Trump himself has been masterful in branding his opponents, as he has proven time and time again. Trump has already selected his narrative when it comes to Hillary, and as his Republican challengers have found out, The Donald knows how to drive his narratives home.

    For all his flaws as a candidate, Trump has proved to be incredibly disciplined in branding his rivals. His nickname “Little Marco” skillfully demeaned the presidential qualities of Sen. Marco Rubio. “Low-energy Jeb” planted the idea in Republican primary voters’ minds that Jeb Bush wasn’t up to the job. And his new focus on “Crooked Hillary” plays on one of the Democratic front-runner’s biggest vulnerabilities as a candidate: trust.

    * * *

    It's clear that the Clinton campaign will have its hands full with the likes of Donald Trump. Not only is The Donald skilled at strategically playing the media to help him build up his narrative and create favorable news cycles, he has the uncanny ability to turn nearly any negative newsflow into something that ultimately ends up helping him with his voting base. As was the case early on in the GOP race, Trump started out behind Hillary in early polls as well. That issue has since been corrected, and he recently has taken his first lead over Hillary. If Clinton continues to fumble the narrative early on, Trump may very well run away with the race, shocking "experts" everywhere.

  • The Moral Incoherence Of Drug Prohibition

    Submitted by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

    The state of Rhode Island is considering the legalization of recreational marijuana, and some opponents of legalization have jumped in to demand the status quo continues. 

    The Washington Post reported on Tuesday for example, that Catholic Bishop Thomas Tobin has come out forcefully against the legalization of marijuana claiming that marijuana turns people into "zombie-like individuals." 

    Tobin's implied support for breaking up families and jailing fathers, wives, mothers, and husbands — for the "crime" of using a plant that Tobin dislikes — is illustrative. Tobin's positions provide us with a helpful and high-profile example of the flaws in attempts to make moral arguments claiming that non-violent activities should be regulated and punished by states. 

    What Prohibition Means 

    A call for the continued criminalization of marijuana use and sales necessary implies support for jailing and punishing individuals who deal in the production, use, or distribution of this particular plant. 

    This also brings with it tacit approval and support of everything that comes with government prohibition. With every law comes the need to enforce that law. Support for legal prohibition means either explicit or implied support for the following:

    • The use of taxpayer funds to support courts for the legal prosecution of drug users including the necessary staff and real estate. These resources are necessarily diverted from being used to prosecute and try perpetrators of violent crime including murderers, rapists, thieves, and other violators of property rights. 
    • The use of taxpayer funds to support a police force to apprehend violators, including surveillance equipment, paid informants, police staff, automobiles, and jails. This necessarily draws resources away from police activities designed to capture rapists, murderers, thieves, and other violent criminals. 
    • The use of taxpayer funds to build, maintain, and staff a system of jails and prisons for the warehousing of drug-use convicts which also necessitates resources to be provided for food, health care, and other amenities.
    • The destruction of marriages and families which results from the incarceration or drug users. 
    • An increase in the number of single-parent families (due to one parent being incarcerated), and the resulting increase of poverty. 

    Moreover, prohibition leads to the creation of black markets and empowers organized crime outfits and other violent criminals who thrive under the conditions created by prohibition. In response to these side effects, the prohibitionists simply call for even more policing, more public expense, and more incarceration.  

    To be fair, it could be that Tobin is actually opposed to harsh penalties for drug use, and that he favors decriminalization. If that is the case, he needs to clarify the difference between this position and his call to "say no to the legalization of marijuana in Rhode Island." But make no mistake, if Tobin takes any position that calls for the sanctioning of private individuals at taxpayer expense, the burden of proof is on him to demonstrate that his preferred course of action — i.e., state coercion — is preferable to people minding their own business. 

    Why Not Alcohol? 

    Since drug prohibition is such a costly and socially disruptive endeavor, it must be that the costs of drug use are unique in their severity. If they weren't, then it's hard to understand how any humane person could support prohibition. 

    So what are the costs of drug usage, according to Tobin? 

    Aside from Tobin's second-hand conclusions about zombies based on the highly scientific observations of an unnamed businessman, Tobin also notes that drug use is responsible for "impaired and dangerous driving," and "health problems" including "concerns during pregnancy." Also dangerous, Tobin notes, is the fact that marijuana can offer "an escape" to young people, who, in addition to destructive activities like wearing "hoodies," may be transported by drugs further into "the land of oblivion." 

    Reading about Tobin's concern with all of these issues, I naturally wanted to learn more about Tobin's call for the prohibition of alcohol. Given Tobin's lis tof concerns, of course, it logically follows that Tobin must also be in favor of alcohol prohibition. After all, if one is concerned about intoxicating substances that impair health and safe driving, alcohol would be an obvious target for prohibition.  

    The health problems related to alcohol, of course have been documented for many years, and in 2013 alone, more than 10,000 Americans died from injuries sustained in alcohol-related auto accidents. Alcohol is also closely linked to domestic abuse and a myriad of social ills. 

    So, does Tobin support prohibition on alcohol as well? It appears he does not. 

    As with everyone who calls for the abolition of social ills via drug prohibition, yet tolerates the legal selling of alcohol, Tobin must first explain why alcohol-related social ills do not warrant prohibition while he calls for legal action against marijuana users. If Tobin is so ready to imprison people for growing a marijuana plant, why is Tobin not equally set against an intoxicating substance that is shown to increase the likelihood of violent behavior? Without a clear explanation of the distinction here, the rest of Tobin's claims display a damaging inconsistency, and we're forced to conclude his opposition to marijuana is arbitrary.

    Moreover, why is Tobin so concerned about the effects of drug use in Colorado? His time might be better spent focusing on the fact that binge drinking is more prevalent in Rhode Island than it is Colorado. And if health is such a great concern of his, he might perhaps better spend his time combating obesity, which is far more damaging to public health overall than is marijuana use. Notably, the obesity rate is substantially higher in Rhode Island than it is in Colorado. 

    In his essay, Tobin appears to recognize the need to differentiate between alcohol and drugs in order to sound coherent. However, unable to come up with a scientific, objective, or evidence-based reason for tolerating alcohol, Tobin falls back on an appeal to authority instead. 

    To sidestep the argument, Tobin appeals to the Catholic Catechism which states "the use of drugs inflicts very grave damage on human health and life…their use … is a grave offense." 

    That's fair enough, but what is a drug? Neither Tobin nor the Catechism give any definition and no clarifying footnotes are provided in the Catechism. Any scientific or objective examination of intoxicating substances would include both marijuana and alcohol within this category. Tobin simply ignores this, and in quoting the Catechism, Tobin triumphantly intones: "there is no exception for marijuana." But, as Tobin conveniently fails to mention: there is no reason that alcohol should be excepted either. 

    Tobin might protest and say "well, of course by 'drugs' the catechism doesn't mean alcohol" In that case, the question remains: "why not"? By what objective measure does the catechism make this distinction? It remains a mystery. 

    Why Not Punish Other Immoral Activities Similarly? 

    As a final note, we must ask Bp. Tobin if all activities with harmful social effects should be outlawed? Should adultery be outlawed? If not, why not? Certainly, the social effects of divorce and broken homes are not something to be ignored. If the proper use of public policy is to punish and imprison people for committing a "grave offense" then surely adultery must be punished similarly to marijuana use. Moreover, based on Tobin's arguments, we might also conclude that prostitution is punished too lightly. Given the negative social and health effects of prostitution, it is important that we punish prostitution as we do drug use, with harsh prison terms doled out to prostitutes who engage in the "distribution" of this harmful activity. The grave nature of their offenses surely demands it.

  • Small Business Owner Explains The Unintended Consequences Of Obamacare

    The Affordable Care Act, affectionately called Obamacare, has been stacking up wins lately.

     

    Over just the last few months we’ve shown the stunning developments that have taken place in the insurance industry as a result of Obamacare. Namely that insurance companies have begun a mass exodus from Obamacare markets because it is simply not profitable, and for those businesses that choose to remain, they have been forced to significantly increase premiums. Most recently, patients who purchases plans on the exchange have been getting turned down by doctors and hospitals who say they do not take Obamacare.

    The impact on small business is something else we’ve discussed, most recently when a small business owner admitted to Hillary Clinton in a town hall event that her premiums had gone up $500 a month, which in turn made it difficult to cover the cost of insurance for her family, let alone think about offering it to her employees.

    Lawmakers are well aware of their policy error, and on Wednesday yet another small business owner testified in front of the Senate committee on small business and entrepreneurship to explain what he has experienced as a result of congress rushing to get Obamacare passed.

    Tom Kunkel, president and CEO of Maryland-based Full House Marketing and Print explained that he once hoped that Obamacare would have a favorable benefit to his business.

    “From a small business perspective, the ACA could have been a huge relief and benefit. I was reimbursing employees for their premiums, because this offered me as a small business a way to compete with larger companies who provided employer-sponsored health insurance plans.”

    He later got a dose of reality when he was notified by his accountant of IRS Notice 2013-54, which prevents businesses from assisting employees with their individual market health insurance.

    “I was stunned. Mid-year, I had to tell my employees I could no longer reimburse them for health care and that they were essentially on their own. I had several employees who could not afford their premiums without my contribution.

     

    “One of my employees has cancer, and was not able to get his prescription refilled for over three weeks because of the new plan.”

    He concluded by telling lawmakers that Obamacare has impacted his company’s ability to operate profitably, and is leading to less hiring, more expenses, and businesses will sometimes have to close their doors because of it.

    “IRS Notice 2013-54 has essentially taken us back to the situation before the Affordable Care Act where a small business can not afford to offer health benefits to its employees. I feel the burden of many new initiatives as they affect my company’s ability to operate profitably and to hire and retain employees. Many of these initiatives often have unforeseen consequences and cause small businesses additional expenses and burdens that can lead to less hiring, more expenses, and sometimes lead to businesses closing their doors.

    We can’t say we’re surprised at any of the testimony, because as is always the case, the more the central planners get involved, the more unintended consequences occur, hurting the very individuals they are intending to help.

  • Who Answers For Government Lies?

    Authored by Andrew Napolitano via LewRockwell.com,

    Here is a quick pop quiz. What happens if we lie to the government? What happens if the government lies to us? Does it matter who does the lying?

    Last year, the Obama administration negotiated an agreement with the government of Iran permitting Iran to obtain certain materials for the construction of nuclear facilities. It also permitted the release of tens of billions of dollars in Iranian assets that had been held in U.S. banks and that the courts had frozen, and it lifted trade sanctions. In exchange, certain inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities can occur under certain circumstances.

    During the course of the negotiations, many critics made many allegations about whether the Obama administration was telling the truth to Congress and to the American people.

    Was there a secret side deal? The administration said no. Were we really negotiating with moderates in the Iranian government, as opposed to the hard-liners depicted in the American media? The administration said yes. Can U.N. or U.S. inspectors examine Iranian nuclear facilities without notice and at any time? The administration said yes.

    It appears that this deal is an executive agreement between President Barack Obama and whatever faction he believes is running the government of Iran. That means that it will expire if not renewed at noon on Jan. 20, 2017, when the president’s term ends.

    It is not a treaty because it was not ratified by a two-thirds vote of the Senate, which the Constitution requires for treaties. Yet the Obama administration cut a deal with the Republican congressional leadership, unknown to the Constitution and unheard of in the modern era. That deal provided that the agreement would be valid unless two-thirds of those voting in both houses of Congress objected. They didn’t.

    Then last week, the president’s deputy national security adviser for strategic communications, Ben Rhodes, who managed the negotiations with Iran, told The New York Times that he lied when he spoke to Congress and the press about the very issues critics were complaining about. He defended his lies as necessary to dull irrational congressional fears of the Iranian government.

    I am not addressing the merits of the deal, though I think that the more Iran is reaccepted into the culture of civilized nations the more economic freedom will come about for Iranians. And where there is economic freedom, personal liberties cannot be far behind.

    I am addressing the issue of lying. Rhodes’ interview set off a firestorm of criticism and “I told you so” critiques in Capitol Hill, and the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee summoned him to explain his behavior. It wanted to know whether he told the truth to Congress and the public during the negotiations or he told the truth to The New York Times last week.

    He apparently dreads answering that question, so he refused to appear and testify. One wonders how serious this congressional committee is because it merely requested Rhodes’ appearance; it did not subpoena him. A congressional subpoena has the force of law and requires either compliance or interference by a federal court. Rhodes’ stated reason for not testifying is a claim of privilege.

    What is a privilege? It is the ability under the law to hide the truth in order to preserve open communications. It is a judgment by lawmakers and judges that in certain narrowly defined circumstances, freedom of communication is a greater good than exposing the truth.

    Hence the attorney/client and priest/penitent and physician/patient privileges have been written into the law so that people can freely tell their lawyers, priests and doctors what they need to tell them without fear that they will repeat what they have heard.

    Executive privilege is the ability of the president and his aides to withhold from anyone testimony and documents that reflect military, diplomatic or sensitive national security secrets. This is the privilege that Rhodes has claimed.

    Yet the defect in Rhodes’ claim of privilege here is that he has waived it by speaking about the Iranian negotiations to The New York Times. Waiver — the knowing and intentional giving up of a privilege or a right — defeats the claim of privilege.

    Thus, by speaking to the Times, Rhodes has admitted that the subject of his conversation — the Iranian negotiations — is not privileged. One cannot selectively assert executive privilege. Items are either privileged or  not, and a privilege, once voluntarily lifted, cannot thereafter successfully be asserted.

    The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee should subpoena Rhodes, as well as the Times reporter to whom he spoke, to determine where the truth lies.

    It is a crime to lie to the government when communicating to it in an official manner. Just ask Martha Stewart. One cannot lawfully lie under oath or when signing a document one is sending to the government or when answering questions from government agents. Just ask Roger Clemens. Stated differently, if Rhodes told the FBI either what he told Congress or what he told The New York Times — whichever version was untrue — he would be exposed to the indictment.

    Ben Rhodes is one of the president’s closest advisers. They often work together on a several-times-a-day basis. Could he have lied about this Iranian deal without the president’s knowing it?

    Does anyone care any longer that the government lies to the American people with impunity and prosecutes people when it thinks they have lied to it? Does the government work for us, or do we work for the government?

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Today’s News 19th May 2016

  • EU-Turkey Migrant Deal Unravels Turning Greece Into Massive Refugee Camp

    Submitted by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

    • "It can be expected that, as soon as Turkish citizens will obtain visa-free entry to the EU, foreign nationals will start trying to obtain Turkish passports … or use the identities of Turkish citizens, or to obtain by fraud the Turkish citizenship. This possibility may attract not only irregular migrants, but also criminals or terrorists." — Leaked European Commission report, quoted in the Telegraph, May 17, 2016.

    • According to the Telegraph, the EU report adds that as a result of the deal, the Turkish mafia, which traffics vast volumes of drugs, sex slaves, illegal firearms and refugees into Europe, may undergo "direct territorial expansion towards the EU."

    • "If they make the wrong decision, we will send the refugees." — Burhan Kuzu, senior adviser to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

    • Erdogan is now demanding that the EU immediately hand over three billion euros ($3.4 billion) so that Turkish authorities can spend it as they see fit. The EU insists that the funds be transferred through international aid agencies in accordance with strict rules on how the aid can be spent. This prompted Erdogan to accuse the EU of "mocking the dignity" of the Turkish nation.

    The EU-Turkey migrant deal, designed to halt the flow of migrants from Turkey to Greece, is falling apart just two months after it was reached. European officials are now looking for a back-up plan.

    The March 18 deal was negotiated in great haste by European leaders desperate to gain control over a migration crisis in which more than one million migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East poured into Europe in 2015.

    European officials, who appear to have promised Turkey more than they can deliver, are increasingly divided over a crucial part of their end of the bargain: granting visa-free travel to Europe for Turkey's 78 million citizens by the end of June.

    At the same time, Turkey is digging in its heels, refusing to implement a key part of its end of the deal: bringing its anti-terrorism laws into line with EU standards so that they cannot be used to detain journalists and academics critical of the government.

    A central turning point in the EU-Turkey deal was the May 5 resignation of Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who lost a long-running power struggle with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Davutoglu was a key architect of the EU-Turkey deal and was also considered its guarantor.

    On May 6, just one day after Davutoglu's resignation, Erdogan warned European leaders that Turkey would not be narrowing its definition of terrorism: "When Turkey is under attack from terrorist organizations and the powers that support them directly, or indirectly, the EU is telling us to change the law on terrorism," Erdogan said in Istanbul. "They say 'I am going to abolish visas and this is the condition.' I am sorry, we are going our way and you go yours."

    Erdogan insists that Turkey's anti-terrorism laws are needed to fight Kurdish militants at home and Islamic State jihadists in neighboring Syria and Iraq. Human rights groups counter that Erdogan is becoming increasingly authoritarian and is using the legislation indiscriminately to silence dissent of him and his government.

    European officials say that, according to the original deal, visa liberalization for Turkish citizens is conditioned on Turkey amending its anti-terror laws. Erdogan warns that if there is no visa-free travel by the end of June, he will reopen the migration floodgates on July 1. Such a move would allow potentially millions more migrants to pour into Greece.

    European officials are now discussing a Plan B. On May 8, the German newspaper Bild reported on a confidential plan to house all migrants arriving from Turkey on Greek islands in the Aegean Sea. Public transportation to and from those islands to the Greek mainland would be cut off in order to prevent migrants from moving into other parts of the European Union.

    Migrants would remain on the islands permanently while their asylum applications are being processed. Those whose asylum requests are denied would be deported back to their countries of origin or third countries deemed as "safe."

    The plan, which Bild reports is being discussed at the highest echelons of European power, would effectively turn parts of Greece into massive refugee camps for many years to come. It remains unclear whether Greek leaders will have any say in the matter. It is also unclear how Plan B would reduce the number of migrants flowing into Europe.

    Thousands of newly arrived migrants, the vast majority of whom are men, crowd the platforms at Vienna West Railway Station on August 15, 2015 — a common scene in the summer and fall of 2015. (Image source: Bwag/Wikimedia Commons)

    Speaking to the BBC News program, "World on the Move," on May 16, Sir Richard Dearlove, the former head of the British intelligence service MI6, warned that the number of migrants coming to Europe during the next five years could run into millions. This, he said, would reshape the continent's geopolitical landscape: "If Europe cannot act together to persuade a significant majority of its citizens that it can gain control of its migratory crisis then the EU will find itself at the mercy of a populist uprising, which is already stirring."

    Dearlove also warned against allowing millions of Turks visa-free access to the EU, describing the EU plan as "perverse, like storing gasoline next to the fire we're trying to extinguish."

    On May 17, the Telegraph published the details of a leaked report from the European Commission, the powerful administrative arm of the European Union. The report warns that opening Europe's borders to 78 million Turks would increase the risk of terrorist attacks in the European Union. The report states:

    "It can be expected that, as soon as Turkish citizens will obtain visa-free entry to the EU, foreign nationals will start trying to obtain Turkish passports in order to pretend to be Turkish citizens and enter the EU visa free, or use the identities of Turkish citizens, or to obtain by fraud the Turkish citizenship. This possibility may attract not only irregular migrants, but also criminals or terrorists."

    According to the Telegraph, the report adds that as a result of the deal, the Turkish mafia, which traffics vast volumes of drugs, sex slaves, illegal firearms and refugees into Europe, may undergo "direct territorial expansion towards the EU." The report warns: "Suspect individuals being allowed to travel to the Schengen territory without the need to go through a visa request procedure would have a greater ability to enter the EU without being noticed."

    While the EU privately admits that the visa waiver would increase the risk to European security, in public the EU has recommended that the deal be approved.

    On May 4, the European Commission announced that Turkey has met most of the 72 "benchmarks of the roadmap" needed to qualify for the visa waiver. The remaining five conditions concern the fight against corruption, judicial cooperation with EU member states, deeper ties with the European law-enforcement agency Europol, data protection and anti-terrorism legislation.

    European Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans said:

    "Turkey has made impressive progress, particularly in recent weeks, on meeting the benchmarks of its visa liberalization roadmap…. This is why we are putting a proposal on the table which opens the way for the European Parliament and the Member States to decide to lift visa requirements, once the benchmarks have been met."

    In order for the visa waiver to take effect, it must be approved by the national parliaments of the EU member states, as well as the European Parliament.

    Ahead of a May 18 debate at the European Parliament in Strasbourg over Turkey's progress in fulfilling requirements for visa liberalization, Burhan Kuzu, a senior adviser to Erdogan, warned the European Parliament that it had an "important choice" to make.

    In a Twitter message, Kuzu wrote: "If they make the wrong decision, we will send the refugees." In a subsequent telephone interview with Bloomberg, he added: "If Turkey's doors are opened, Europe would be miserable."

    Meanwhile, Erdogan has placed yet another obstacle in the way of EU-Turkey deal. He is now demanding that the EU immediately hand over three billion euros ($3.4 billion) promised under the deal so that Turkish authorities can spend it as they see fit.

    The EU insists that the funds be transferred through the United Nations and other international aid agencies in accordance with strict rules on how the aid can be spent. That stance has prompted Erdogan to accuse the EU of "mocking the dignity" of the Turkish nation.

    On May 10, Erdogan expressed anger at the glacial pace of the EU bureaucracy:

    "This country [Turkey] is looking after three million refugees. What did they [the EU] say? We'll give you €3 billion. Well, have they given us any of that money until now? No. They're still stroking the ball around midfield. If you're going to give it, just give it.

     

    "These [EU] administrators come here, tour our [refugee] camps, then ask at the same time for more projects. Are you kidding us? What projects? We have 25 camps running. You've seen them. There is no such thing as a project. We've implemented them."

    In an interview with the Financial Times, Fuat Oktay, head of Turkey's Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), the agency responsible for coordinating the country's refugee response, accused European officials of being fixated on "bureaucracies, rules and procedures" and urged the European Commission to find a way around them.

    The European Commission insists that it was made clear from the outset that most of the money must go to aid organizations: "Funding under the Facility for Refugees in Turkey supports refugees in the country. It is funding for refugees and not funding for Turkey."

    The migration crisis appears to be having political repercussions for German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a leading proponent of the EU-Turkey deal. According to a new poll published by the German newsmagazine Cicero on May 10, two-thirds (64%) of Germans oppose a fourth term for Merkel, whose term ends in the fall of 2017.

    In an interview with Welt am Sonntag, Horst Seehofer, the leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister-party to Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU), blamed Merkel for enabling Erdogan's blackmail: "I am not against talks with Turkey. But I think it is dangerous to be dependent upon Ankara."

    Sahra Wagenknecht of the Left Party accused Merkel of negotiating the EU-Turkey deal without involving her European partners: "The chancellor is responsible for Europe having become vulnerable to blackmail by the authoritarian Turkish regime."

    Cem Özdemir, leader of the Greens Party and the son of Turkish immigrants said: "The EU-Turkey deal has made Europe subject to Turkish blackmail. The chancellor bears significant responsibility for this state of affairs."

  • Suicide Blonde

    From the Slope of Hope: I was amused this evening to read about the implosion at Theranos, which is located right here in my beloved Palo Alto. Elizabeth Holmes has been the darling of the business press for years, what with her flowing blonde hair, big blue eyes, and slender neck peeking out of the Steve Jobsian black top. Like Holden Caulfield, I have no fondness for “phonies”, and she seemed like one to me.

    The thing is, the phenomenon of attractive women leading high-tech companies is a relatively recent one. On the surface, we as a society will pat each other on the back about how progressive we are, now that we have unvarnished gender equality, even at the highest echelons of corporate power. But let me just spoil your little party and tell you something. The reason men gawk at photos like this……….

    ……..and this……….

    isn’t because they are contemplating the strategic vision, administrative excellence, and vigorous business acumen of these long-legged, slender, blonde women. They’re thinking of other things.

    And I think it stinks of hypocrisy that we as a society applaud ourselves for elevating these women so high, when I can assure you 50% of the society is doing so mostly to look up their skirts.

    The more successful women in business don’t get fawned over to this degree, and in those circumstances, you can probably assume that the woman in question actually knows what the hell she is doing. Take Meg Whitman (please!), who looks like something you might buy in a live bait shop:

    And, as long as we’re being gender-blind, let’s remember that the successful businessmen in our society are likewise not required to be handsome (or even generally resembling the species):

    My point is this – – when you are presented with a woman at the top of the business world, and she just happens to be very attractive, you might want to take a harder look. And by “look”, I’m talking about with your head, not your eyes, because as experience has shown, that can be a fatal misdirection.

    BONUS TIP: Using our same examples above, you can also use the “creepy voice” rule as an important marker. I present to you, once again, Marissa Mayer and Elizabeth Holmes. Enjoy.

  • Shame On The Supreme Court For Making A Mockery Of The First Amendment

    Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “The vitality of civil and political institutions in our society depends on free discussion… It is only through free debate and free exchange of ideas that government remains responsive to the will of the people and peaceful change is effected. The right to speak freely and to promote diversity of ideas and programs is therefore one of the chief distinctions that sets us apart from totalitarian regimes.”—Justice William O. Douglas, Terminiello v. City of Chicago (1949)

    Shame on the U.S. Supreme Court for making a mockery of the First Amendment.

    All the justices had to do was right a 60-year wrong that made it illegal to exercise one’s First Amendment rights on the Supreme Court plaza.

    It shouldn’t have been a big deal.

    After all, this is the Court that has historically championed a robust First Amendment, no matter how controversial or politically incorrect.

    Over the course of its 227-year history, the Supreme Court has defended the free speech rights of Ku Klux Klan cross-burners, Communist Party organizers, military imposters, Westboro Baptist Church members shouting gay slurs at military funerals, a teenager who burned a cross on the lawn of an African-American family, swastika-wearing Nazis marching through the predominantly Jewish town of Skokie, abortion protesters and sidewalk counselors in front of abortion clinics, flag burners, an anti-war activist arrested for wearing a jacket bearing the words “F#@k the Draft,” high-school students wearing black armbands to school in protest of the Vietnam War, a film producer who created and sold videotapes of dogfights, a movie theater that showed a sexually explicit film, and the Boy Scouts of America to exclude gay members, among others.

    Basically, the Supreme Court has historically had no problem with radical and reactionary speech, false speech, hateful speech, racist speech on front lawns, offensive speech at funerals, anti-Semitic speech in parades, anti-abortion/pro-life speech in front of abortion clinics, inflammatory speech in a Chicago auditorium, political speech in a private California shopping mall, or offensive speech in a state courthouse.

    So when activist Harold Hodge appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court to defend his right to stand on their government plaza and silently protest the treatment of African-Americans and Hispanics by police, it should have been a no-brainer, unanimous ruling in favor of hearing his case.

    Unfortunately, the Supreme Court is not quite as keen on the idea of a robust First Amendment as it used to be, especially when that right is being exercised on the Court’s own front porch.

    Not only did the Court refuse to hear Hodge’s appeal, but in doing so, it also upheld the 60-year-old law banning expressive activity on the Supreme Court plaza. Mind you, this was the same ban that a federal district court judge described as “unreasonable, substantially overbroad…irreconcilable with the First Amendment,” “plainly unconstitutional on its face” and “repugnant” to the Constitution.

    Incredibly, one day after District Court Judge Beryl L. Howell issued her strongly worded opinion striking down the federal statute, the marshal for the Supreme Court—with the approval of Chief Justice John Roberts—issued even more strident regulations outlawing expressive activity on the grounds of the high court, including the plaza.

    Talk about a double standard—a double standard upheld by a federal appeals court.

    And what was the appeals court’s rationale for enforcing this ban on expressive activity on the Supreme Court plaza? “Allowing demonstrations directed at the Court, on the Court’s own front terrace, would tend to yield the…impression…of a Court engaged with — and potentially vulnerable to — outside entreaties by the public.”

    Translation: The appellate court that issued that particular ruling in Hodge v. Talkin actually wants us to believe that the Court is so impressionable that the justices could be swayed by the sight of a single man standing alone and silent in a 20,000 square-foot space wearing a small sign on a day when the court was not in session.

    What a load of tripe.

    Of course the Supreme Court is not going to be swayed by you or me or Harold Hodge.

    This ban on free speech in the Supreme Court plaza, enacted by Congress in 1949, stems from a desire to insulate government officials from those exercising their First Amendment rights, an altogether elitist mindset that views the government “elite” as different, set apart somehow, from the people they have been appointed to serve and represent.

    No wonder interactions with politicians have become increasingly manufactured and distant in recent decades. The powers-that-be want us kept at a distance. Press conferences and televised speeches now largely take the place of face-to-face interaction with constituents. Elected officials keep voters at arms-length through the use of electronic meetings and ticketed events. And there has been an increased use of so-called “free speech zones,” designated areas for expressive activity used to corral and block protestors at political events from interacting with public officials. Both the Democratic and Republican parties have used “free speech zones” at various conventions to mute any and all criticism of their policies and likely will do so again this year.

    We’re nearing the end of the road for free speech and freedom in general, folks.

    With every passing day, we’re being moved further down the road towards a totalitarian society characterized by government censorship, violence, corruption, hypocrisy and intolerance, all packaged for our supposed benefit in the Orwellian doublespeak of national security, tolerance and so-called “government speech.”

    Long gone are the days when advocates of free speech could prevail in a case such as Tinker v. Des Moines. Indeed, it’s been more than 50 years since 13-year-old Mary Beth Tinker was suspended for wearing a black armband to school in protest of the Vietnam War. In taking up her case, the U.S. Supreme Court declared that students do not “shed their constitutional rights to freedom of speech or expression at the schoolhouse gate.”

    Were Tinker to make its way through the courts today, it would have to overcome the many hurdles being placed in the path of those attempting to voice sentiments that may be construed as unpopular, offensive, conspiratorial, violent, threatening or anti-government.

    Indeed, the Supreme Court now has the effrontery to suggest that the government can discriminate freely against First Amendment activity that takes place within a government forum, justifying such censorship as “government speech.”

    If it were just the courts suppressing free speech, that would be one thing to worry about, but First Amendment activities are being pummeled, punched, kicked, choked, chained and generally gagged all across the country. The reasons for such censorship vary widely from political correctness, safety concerns and bullying to national security and hate crimes but the end result remains the same: the complete eradication of what Benjamin Franklin referred to as the “principal pillar of a free government.”

    If Americans are not able to peacefully assemble outside of the halls of government for expressive activity, the First Amendment has lost all meaning.

    If we cannot stand silently outside of the Supreme Court or the Capitol or the White House, our ability to hold the government accountable for its actions is threatened, and so are the rights and liberties which we cherish as Americans.

    Living in a so-called representative republic means that each person has the right to stand outside the halls of government and express his or her opinion on matters of state without fear of arrest.

    That’s what the First Amendment is all about.

    It gives every American the right to “petition the government for a redress of grievances.” It ensures, as Adam Newton and Ronald K.L. Collins report for the Five Freedoms Project, “that our leaders hear, even if they don’t listen to, the electorate. Though public officials may be indifferent, contrary, or silent participants in democratic discourse, at least the First Amendment commands their audience.”

    Unfortunately, through a series of carefully crafted legislative steps, government officials—both elected and appointed—have managed to disembowel this fundamental freedom, rendering it with little more meaning than the right to file a lawsuit against government officials.

    In the process, government officials have succeeded in insulating themselves from their constituents, making it increasingly difficult for average Americans to make themselves seen or heard by those who most need to hear what “we the people” have to say.

    Indeed, while lobbyists mill in and out of the homes and offices of Congressmen, the American people are kept at a distance through free speech zones, electronic town hall meetings, and security barriers. And those who dare to breach the gap—even through silent forms of protest—are arrested for making their voices heard. 

    Clearly, the government has no interest in hearing what “we the people” have to say.

    We are now only as free to speak as a government official may allow.

    Free speech zones, bubble zones, trespass zones, anti-bullying legislation, zero tolerance policies, hate crime laws and a host of other legalistic maladies dreamed up by politicians and prosecutors have conspired to corrode our core freedoms.

    As a result, we are no longer a nation of constitutional purists for whom the Bill of Rights serves as the ultimate authority. As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, we have litigated and legislated our way into a new governmental framework where the dictates of petty bureaucrats carry greater weight than the inalienable rights of the citizenry.

    Without the First Amendment, we are utterly helpless.

    It’s not just about the right to speak freely, or pray freely, or assemble freely, or petition the government for a redress of grievances, or have a free press. The unspoken freedom enshrined in the First Amendment is the right to think freely and openly debate issues without being muzzled or treated like a criminal.

    Just as surveillance has been shown to “stifle and smother dissent, keeping a populace cowed by fear,” government censorship gives rise to self-censorship, breeds compliance and makes independent thought all but impossible.

    In the end, censorship and political correctness not only produce people that cannot speak for themselves but also people who cannot think for themselves. And a citizenry that can’t think for itself is a citizenry that will neither rebel against the government’s dictates nor revolt against the government’s tyranny.

    The architects, engineers and lever-pullers who run the American police state want us to remain deaf, dumb and silent. They want our children raised on a vapid diet of utter nonsense, where common sense is in short supply and the only viewpoint that matters is the government’s.

    We are becoming a nation of idiots, encouraged to spout political drivel and little else.

    If George Orwell envisioned the future as a boot stamping on a human face, a fair representation of our present day might well be a muzzle on that same human face.

  • Trump Leads Clinton Nationally For First Time In Latest Poll

    Having recently tied her in a Rasmussen poll, Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton for the first time in a national poll, according to FOX News.

    The FOX News poll shows the trend quite clearly with Hillary'snumbers falling consistently and Trump's rising given him a 3pt lead – his first national lead of the campaign.

     

    The breakdown exposes just how divided America is during this election cycle…

    Clinton is ahead by 14 points among women (50-36 percent).  Yet Trump leads by a larger 22 points among men (55-33 percent).

     

    He also tops Clinton by 37 points (61-24 percent) among whites without a college degree (working-class whites).

     

    Overall, Trump is preferred by 24 points among whites (55-31 percent).  He’s even ahead by nine among white women (47-38 percent).

     

    Clinton has a commanding 83-point lead among blacks (90-7 percent), and is up by 39 among Hispanics (62-23 percent).

    Overall, RealClearPolitics smoothed trend of polls shows Clinton's lead now at its smalled since the beginning of March…

     

    Clinton has a net negative honesty rating of -35 points.  That’s because a new low 31 percent say she’s honest, while a record 66 percent say she isn’t. Trump does better on this measure, although he is still underwater by 17 points:  40 percent think he’s honest and 57 percent say he’s not.

    Ironically, as The Clinton campaign pushes for Bernie to "know when he's beaten," the same FOX News poll finds Sanders polling well above both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

    Which is exactly what  Liberty Blitzkrieg's Mike Krieger explained previously, following a fantastic article by Nathan J. Robinson in Current Affairs titled: Unless the Democrats Run Sanders, a Trump Nomination Means a Trump Presidency. Several months ago, I would have disagreed with this statement, but today I think it’s entirely accurate.

    One thing Clinton supporters remain in complete denial about (other than the fact most Americans who don’t identify as Democrats find her to be somewhere in between untrustworthy and criminal), is that a significant number of Sanders supporters will never vote for Hillary. Forget the fact that I know a few personally, I’ve noticed several interviews with voters who proclaim Sanders to be their first choice but Trump their second. Are they just saying this or do they mean it? I think a lot them mean it.

    Mr. Robinson’s article is a brilliant deep dive into what a real life Trump vs. Clinton matchup would look like, not what clueless beltway wonks want it to look it. What emerges is a convincing case that the only person who could stand up to Trump and defeat him in November is Bernie Sanders. I agree.

    So without further ado, here are a few excerpts:

    Instinctively, Hillary Clinton has long seemed by far the more electable of the two Democratic candidates. She is, after all, an experienced, pragmatic moderate, whereas Sanders is a raving, arm-flapping elderly Jewish socialist from Vermont. Clinton is simply closer to the American mainstream, thus she is more attractive to a broader swath of voters. Sanders campaigners have grown used to hearing the heavy-hearted lament “I like Bernie, I just don’t think he can win.” And in typical previous American elections, this would be perfectly accurate.

     

    But this is far from a typical previous American election. And recently, everything about the electability calculus has changed, due to one simple fact: Donald Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee for President. Given this reality, every Democratic strategic question must operate not on the basis of abstract electability against a hypothetical candidate, but specific electability against the actual Republican nominee, Donald Trump.

     

    Here, a Clinton match-up is highly likely to be an unmitigated electoral disaster, whereas a Sanders candidacy stands a far better chance. Every one of Clinton’s (considerable) weaknesses plays to every one of Trump’s strengths, whereas every one of Trump’s (few) weaknesses plays to every one of Sanders’s strengths. From a purely pragmatic standpoint, running Clinton against Trump is a disastrous, suicidal proposition.

     

    Her supporters insist that she has already been “tried and tested” against all the attacks that can be thrown at her. But this is not the case; she has never been subjected to the full brunt of attacks that come in a general presidential election. Bernie Sanders has ignored most tabloid dirt, treating it as a sensationalist distraction from real issues (“Enough with the damned emails!”) But for Donald Trump, sensationalist distractions are the whole game. He will attempt to crucify her. And it is very, very likely that he will succeed.

     

    This campaigning style makes Hillary Clinton Donald Trump’s dream opponent. She gives him an endless amount to work with. The emails, Benghazi, Whitewater, Iraq, the Lewinsky scandal, ChinagateTravelgate, the missing law firm recordsJeffrey EpsteinKissingerMarc RichHaitiClinton Foundation tax errorsClinton Foundation conflicts of interest“We were broke when we left the White House,” Goldman Sachs… There is enough material in Hillary Clinton’s background for Donald Trump to run with six times over.

     

    Even a skilled campaigner would have a very difficult time parrying such endless attacks by Trump. Even the best campaigner would find it impossible to draw attention back to actual substantive policy issues, and would spend their every moment on the defensive. But Hillary Clinton is neither the best campaigner nor even a skilled one. In fact, she is a dreadful campaigner. She may be a skilled policymaker, but on the campaign trail she makes constant missteps and never realizes things have gone wrong until it’s too late.

     

    Everyone knows this. Even among Democratic party operatives, she’s acknowledged as “awkward and uninspiring on the stump,” carrying “Bill’s baggage with none of Bill’s warmth.” New York magazine described her “failing to demonstrate the most elementary political skills, much less those learned at Toastmasters or Dale Carnegie.” Last year the White House was panicking at her levels of electoral incompetence, her questionable decisionmaking, and her inclination for taking sleazy shortcuts. More recently, noting Sanders’s catch-up in the polls, The Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin said that she was a “rotten candidate” whose attacks on Sanders made no sense, and that “at some point, you cannot blame the national mood or a poor staff or a brilliant opponent for Hillary Clinton’s campaign woes.” Yet in a race against Trump, Hillary will be handicapped not only by her feeble campaigning skills, but the fact that she will have a sour national mood, a poor staff, and a brilliant opponent.

     

    Every Democrat should take some time to fairly, dispassionately examine Clinton’s track record as a campaigner. Study how the ‘08 campaign was handled, and how this one has gone. Assess her strengths and weaknesses with as little bias or prejudice as possible. Then picture the race against Trump, and think about how it will unfold.

     

    It’s easy to see that Trump has every single advantage. Because the Republican primary will be over, he can come at her from both right and left as he pleases. As the candidate who thundered against the Iraq War at the Republican debate, he can taunt Clinton over her support for it. He will paint her as a member of the corrupt political establishment, and will even offer proof: “Well, I know you can buy politicians, because I bought Senator Clinton. I gave her money, she came to my wedding.” He can make it appear that Hillary Clinton can be bought, that he can’t, and that he is in charge. It’s also hard to defend against, because it appears to be partly true. Any denial looks like a lie, thus making Hillary’s situation look even worse. And then, when she stumbles, he will mock her as incompetent.

     

    Charges of misogyny against Trump won’t work. He is going to fill the press with the rape and harassment allegations against Bill Clinton and Hillary’s role in discrediting the victims (something that made even Lena Dunham deeply queasy.) He can always remind people that Hillary Clinton referred to Monica Lewinsky as a “narcissistic loony toon.” Furthermore, since Trump is not an anti-Planned Parenthood zealot (being the only one willing to stick up for women’s health in a room full of Republicans), it will be hard for Clinton to paint him as the usual anti-feminist right-winger.

     

    Trump will capitalize on his reputation as a truth-teller, and be vicious about both Clinton’s sudden changes of position (e.g. the switch on gay marriage, plus the affected economic populism of her run against Sanders) and her perceived dishonesty. One can already imagine the monologue:

     

    “She lies so much. Everything she says is a lie. I’ve never seen someone who lies so much in my life. Let me tell you three lies she’s told. She made up a story about how she was ducking sniper fire! There was no sniper fire. She made it up! How do you forget a thing like that? She said she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary, the guy who climbed Mount Everest. He hadn’t even climbed it when she was born! Total lie! She lied about the emails, of course, as we all know, and is probably going to be indicted. You know she said there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq! It was a lie! Thousands of American soldiers are dead because of her. Not only does she lie, her lies kill people. That’s four lies, I said I’d give you three. You can’t even count them. You want to go on PolitiFact, see how many lies she has? It takes you an hour to read them all! In fact, they ask her, she doesn’t even say she hasn’t lied. They asked her straight up, she says she usually tries to tell the truth! Ooooh, she tries! Come on! This is a person, every single word out of her mouth is a lie. Nobody trusts her. Check the polls, nobody trusts her. Yuge liar.”

     

    Trump will bob, weave, jab, and hook. He won’t let up. And because Clinton actually has lied, and actually did vote for the Iraq War, and actually is hyper-cosy with Wall Street, and actually does change her positions based on expediency, all she can do is issue further implausible denials, which will further embolden Trump. Nor does she have a single offensive weapon at her disposal, since every legitimate criticism of Trump’s background (inconsistent political positions, shady financial dealings, pattern of deception) is equally applicable to Clinton, and he knows how to make such things slide off him, whereas she does not.

    Here’s another example. If Hillary tries to hit Trump on his Mexican/Muslims comments, Trump can accurately point out she called inner city blacks “super predators.”

    Nor are the demographics going to be as favorable to Clinton as she thinks. Trump’s populism will have huge resonance among the white working class in both red and blue states; he might even peel away her black support. And Trump has already proven false the prediction that he would alienate Evangelicals through his vulgarity and his self-deification. Democrats are insistently repeating their belief that a Trump nomination will mobilize liberals to head to the polls like never before, but with nobody particularly enthusiastic for Clinton’s candidacy, it’s not implausible that a large number of people will find both options so unappealing that they stay home.

    Yep, many Sanders supporters will never vote for Hillary. In fact, more than a few will vote for Trump.

    Trump’s various unique methods of attack would instantly be made far less useful in a run against Sanders. All of the most personal charges (untrustworthiness, corruption, rank hypocrisy) are much more difficult to make stick. The rich history of dubious business dealings is nonexistent. None of the sleaze in which Trump traffics can be found clinging to Bernie. Trump’s standup routine just has much less obvious personal material to work with. Sanders is a fairly transparent guy; he likes the social safety net, he doesn’t like oligarchy, he’s a workaholic who sometimes takes a break to play basketball, and that’s pretty much all there is to it. Contrast that with the above-noted list of juicy Clinton tidbits.

     

    Trump can’t clown around nearly as much at a debate with Sanders, for the simple reason that Sanders is dead set on keeping every conversation about the plight of America’s poor under the present economic system. If Trump tells jokes and goofs off here, he looks as if he’s belittling poor people, not a magnificent idea for an Ivy League trust fund billionaire running against a working class public servant and veteran of the Civil Rights movement. Instead, Trump will be forced to do what Hillary Clinton has been forced to do during the primary, namely to make himself sound as much like Bernie Sanders as possible. For Trump, having to get serious and take the Trump Show off the air will be devastating to his unique charismatic appeal.

     

    Trump is an attention-craving parasite, and such creatures are powerful only when indulged and paid attention to. Clinton will be forced to pay attention to Trump because of his constant evocation of her scandals. She will attempt to go after him. She will, in other words, feed the troll. Sanders, by contrast, will almost certainly behave as if Trump isn’t even there. He is unlikely to rise to Trump’s bait, because Sanders doesn’t even care to listen to anything that’s not about saving social security or the disappearing middle class. He will almost certainly seem as if he barely knows who Trump is. Sanders’s commercials will be similar to those he has run in the primary, featuring uplifting images of America, aspirational sentiments about what we can be together, and moving testimonies from ordinary Americans. Putting such genuine dignity and good feeling against Trump’s race-baiting clownishness will be like finally pouring water on the Wicked Witch. Hillary Clinton cannot do this; with her, the campaign will inevitably descend into the gutter, and the unstoppable bloated Trump menace will continue to grow ever larger.

     

    Of course, the American people are still jittery about socialism. But they’re less jittery than they used to be, and Bernie does a good job portraying socialism as being about little more than paid family leave and sick days (a debatable proposition, but one beside the point.) His policies are popular and appeal to the prevailing national sentiment. It’s a risk, certainly. But the Soviet Union bogeyman is long gone, and everyone gets called a socialist these days no matter what their politics. It’s possible that swing voters dislike socialism more than they dislike Hillary Clinton, but in a time of economic discontent one probably shouldn’t bet on it.

     

    But even if it was correct to say that Sanders was “starting to” lose (instead of progressively losing less and less), this should only motivate all Democrats to work harder to make sure he is nominated. One’s support for Sanders should increase in direct proportion to one’s fear of Trump.

     

    And if Trump is the nominee, Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race and throw her every ounce of energy into supporting Sanders. If this does not occur, the resulting consequences for Muslims and Mexican immigrants of a Trump presidency will be fully the responsibility of Clinton and the Democratic Party. To run a candidate who can’t win, or who is a very high-risk proposition, is to recklessly play with the lives of millions of people. So much depends on stopping Trump; a principled defeat will mean nothing to the deported, or to those being roughed up by Trump’s goon squads or executed with pigs’ blood-dipped bullets.

    Trump vs. Clinton will appear to most Americans as a choice between something new and risky, and something old and corrupt. In 2016, who do you think the public will choose?

    If Democrats foolishly nominate Hillary Clinton, they will be the only ones to blame for a Trump Presidency.

  • China Sends Hawkish Fed A Message – Devalues Yuan Near 2016 Lows

    Just as we warned was probable, The PBOC sent a message loud and clear to the newly hawkish Fed following today’s surge in the dollar after the minutes were released. With the 2nd biggest daily devaluation since the August collapse, China pushed the Yuan fix against the USD down to its lowest since early February – barely above the January lows. As we warned earlier, the China-Panic trade looms loud now as turmoil appears all that is left to stop The Fed unleashing another round of liquidity-suckiong rate hikes sooner than the market wants.

    All eyes have been firmly focus on the Yuan’s move against the USD but in fact the Yuan has been falling non-stop against the world’s major currencies…

    The critical issue now is that the U.S. dollar is appreciating again. The
    Bloomberg Dollar index is up 2.8% in the last two weeks and another 2%
    wouldn’t be an unreasonable consolidation in the context of it dropping
    more than 7% in the previous three months.

     

    That previous dollar slide distracted from the fact that yuan depreciation never abated. Against the basket, it’s been weakening at an average rate of almost 1.2% per month for the last five months.


     

     

    The market’s single-minded focus on USD/CNY is crucial and it’s also why disaster can still be averted. It will require the PBOC to temporarily suspend their yuan-weakening policy for as long as the dollar is climbing.

     

    Otherwise, prepare to batten down the hatches for the coming storm.

    It appears that it is the USD’s turn to face The PBOC once again… The 2nd biggest daily devaluation of the Yuan fix against the USD since August’s collapse.

     

    Simply put, China does not want The Fed sucking the liquidity lifeline out of world markets right as it embarks on another round of desperate credit reflation.

    Given The Fed’s comments today, the only excuse left for Yellen and her friends (unless they are willing to lose all credibility due to short-term fluctuations in macro-economic data from now to June meeting – as opposed to their mandated long-term view) is if markets turmoil enough to warrant some level of conservatism. As we have warned before – bullish stock market investors should be careful what they wish for – the higher stocks go, the higher the chances of rate hike, and the more likely China pre-taliates with some turmoil-inducing events to stall the unwind… the last time traders panicced about China, bad things happened to stocks…

  • NATO Announces War Policy Against Russia

    Submitted by Eric Zuesse, investigative historian and author, most recently, of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.

    NATO Announces War Policy Against Russia

    On May 18th, Britain’s Guardian headlined “West and Russia on course for war, says ex-Nato deputy commander” and reported that the former deputy commander of NATO, the former British general Sir Alexander Richard Shirreff (who was Supreme Allied Commander in Europe from 2011-2014), expressed outrage that Britain isn’t urgently preparing for war against Russia, and also reported that “He describes Russia as now the west’s most dangerous adversary and says Putin’s course can only be stopped if the west wakes up to the real possibility of war and takes urgent action.” … In a chilling scenario, he predicts that Russia, in order to escape what it believes to be encirclement by Nato, will seize territory in eastern Ukraine.” (That’s the Donbass region, where there has been a civil war.)

    This encirclement by NATO is, apparently, about to be expanded: Shirreff will now be satisfied by NATO, even if not by its member the UK, of which Shirreff happens to be a citizen. New Europe bannered the same day, “NATO lays down the cards on its Russia policy”, and reported that, “In two distinct pre-ministerial press conferences on Wednesday [May 18th], the General Secretary of NATO Jens Stoltenberg and the US Ambassador to NATO, Daglas Lute, introduced the Russia agenda to be covered. Both NATO leaders said that the Accession Protocol Montenegro is signing on Thursday is a strong affirmation of NATO’s open door policy, mentioning explicitly Georgia. ‘We will continue to defend Georgia’s right to make its own decisions,’ Stoltenberg said.” Georgia is on Russia’s southwestern flank; so, it could be yet another a nuclear-missile base right on Russia’s borders, complementing Poland and the Baltics on Russia’s northwestern flank. (The U.S. itself has around 800 military bases in foreign countries, and so even Russia’s less-populous eastern regions would be able to be obliterated virtually in an instant, if the U.S. President so decides. And President Obama is already committed to the view that Russia is by far the world’s most “aggressive” enemy, more so even than international jihadists are.)

    According to the New Europe report, Stoltenberg announced that where the 1997 NATO-Russia Agreement asserts that

    The member States of NATO reiterate that they have no intention, no plan and no reason to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of new members, nor any need to change any aspect of NATO’s nuclear posture or nuclear policy — and do not foresee any future need to do so. This subsumes the fact that NATO has decided that it has no intention, no plan, and no reason to establish nuclear weapon storage sites on the territory of those members, whether through the construction of new nuclear storage facilities or the adaptation of old nuclear storage facilities. Nuclear storage sites are understood to be facilities specifically designed for the stationing of nuclear weapons, and include all types of hardened above or below ground facilities (storage bunkers or vaults) designed for storing nuclear weapons.

    the agreement is effectively terminated, and, “Largely as a result of the Crimean annexation, the repeated violations of the Minsk ceasefire agreement, and the demands of eastern flank member states, boots on the ground will increase considerably in the region, if not ‘substantially’,” along Russia’s northeastern flank, in Poland and the Baltics. Furthermore, “Poland has already said that it regards this agreement ‘obsolete’.” So, General Stoltenberg is taking his lead on that from the Polish government. 

    According to both Russia and the separatist Donbass eastern region of the former Ukraine, the violations of the Minsk II agreement regarding Donbass are attacks by Ukrainian government forces firing into Donbass and destroying buildings and killing residents there, however NATO and other U.S. allies ignore those allegations and just insist that all violations of the Minsk II accords are to be blamed on Russia. That is also the position advanced by Shirreff, who thinks that Russia has no right to be concerned about being surrounded by NATO forces.

    Consequently, regardless of whether or not the Minsk II violations are entirely, or even mainly, or even partially, due to Ukrainian firing into Donbass, NATO appears to be gearing up for its upcoming July ministerial meeting to be an official termination of its vague promises, which NATO had made in the 1997 NATO-Russia agreement (technically called the “Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation signed in Paris, France, 27 May 1997”). That document said “NATO and Russia do not consider each other as adversaries. They share the goal of overcoming the vestiges of earlier confrontation and competition and of strengthening mutual trust and cooperation.” In this regard, it was — though in public and written form, instead of merely private and verbal form — similar to the promises that the West had given to Soviet then Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990, which have already been rampantly violated by the West many times and without apology. The expectation and demand is clearly that Russia must allow itself to be surrounded by NATO, and to do this without complaint, and therefore also without taking military countermeasures, which NATO would call yet more “aggression by Russia.” Any defensive moves by Russia can thus be taken by the West to be unacceptable provocation and justification for a “pre-emptive” attack against Russia by NATO. That would be World War III, and it would be based upon the same accusation against Russia that the Republican candidate for the U.S. Presidency, Mitt Romney, had stated when he was running against Barack Obama: “This is, without question, our number one geopolitical foe.” Perhaps the West here intends the final solution of the Russian problem.

  • Elizabeth Holmes Admits Theranos' "Technology" Is A Fraud: Restates, Voids Years Of Test Results

    The billion dollar baby has now, officially, gone bye bye.

     

    Just when you thought that the biggest ever "multi-billion" private company that also happens to be an utter fraud, would quietly disappear before it risked attracting even more unwarranted attention from regulators, enforcers, and criminal investigators which could potentially lead to prison time for "billionaire" Elizabeth Holmes, here she comes again reminding everyone of her fallen from grace presence, in this case with what should be the terminal news for this company, namely that as the WSJ reports (and as the company confirms) Theranos has told federal health regulators that the company voided and revised two years of results from its Edison blood-testing devices and has issued tens of thousands of corrected reports to doctors and patients.

    As a reminder, the basis for Theranos ludicrous $9 billion valuation which it appears was achieved without anyone doing any actual due diligence, were the "Edison" machines which were touted as revolutionary – not just by Holmes but by the fawning media and even the Clintons. Theranos has now told regulators that it threw out all Edison test results from 2014 and 2015, effectively confirming it has no proprietary technology, and also validating that its valuation should be zero.

    Worse, Theranos has told regulators that it used the Edison for 12 types of tests out of more than 200 offered to consumers and stopped using the devices altogether in late June 2015. In other words, Theranos' insane "valuation" was achieved on the basis of doing only 6% of blood tests in house (all of them erroneously we now learn), and outsourcing 94% to companies whose products actually worked and many of whom likely had a far lower valuation than the one at which a bunch of idiot billionaires "valued" Holmes' worthless company.

    In the process of commiting fraud and building up her valuation, Holmes repeatedly gambled with people's lives, sending them clearly wrong results. As a result some patients have received erroneous results that might have thrown off health decisions made with their doctors, the WSJ reports. All this is needed is one death and there is a criminal case.

    So why come clean now?

    The move is part of Theranos’s attempt to persuade the agency not to impose stiff sanctions it threatened in the aftermath of its inspection of the company’s Newark, Calif., laboratory. The voided and revised test results are one of the most dramatic steps yet taken by Theranos.

     

    Company records reviewed during the inspection showed that the California lab ran about 890,000 tests a year. The inspection found that Edison machines in the lab often failed to meet the company’s own accuracy requirements.

    In other words, Theranos may have put as many as 890,000 lives per year in jeopardy with its fake technology.

    The good news, this is now officially game over for if not Elizabeth Holmes, then certainly her company:

    “There have been massive recalls of single tests in the past, but I’m not aware of one where a company recalled the entirety of the results from its testing platform,” said Geoffrey Baird, associate professor in the department of laboratory medicine at the University of Washington in Seattle. “I believe that’s unprecedented.”

    The company also commented:

    In response to questions from The Wall Street Journal about the blood-test corrections, Theranos spokeswoman Brooke Buchanan said: “Excellence in quality and patient safety is our top priority and we’ve taken comprehensive corrective measures to address the issues CMS raised in their observations. As these matters are currently under review, we have no further comment at this time.”

    That's rich, pardon the pun. Less rich, if only on paper, will be Holmes who will have ample opportunity to make numerous comments during trial.

    * * *

    Finally, the question everyone should be asking is who enabled this fraud for so many years? The simple answer: everyone, and especially those who have an agenda to conduct one endless infomercial for a product that ended up being an epic fraud. Here is a sample (courtesy of Bruce Quinn).

    August 30, 2013
    "Theranos: The Biggest Biotech You've Never Heard of."
    San Francisco Business Times. By Ron Leuty.  Here.

    September 8, 2013
    "Elizabeth Holmes: The Breakthrough of Instant Diagnosis."  

    The pivotal Wall Street Journal article, by Joseph Rago.  Here
    A Stanford dropout is bidding to make tests more accurate, less painful – and at a fraction of the current price.
     
    September 9, 2013
    "Secretive Theranos emerging partly from shadows."
    SF BizJournal, SF/Biotech, by Ron Leuty, subtitled, "The biggest biotech you've never heard of." Here

    October 9, 2013
    "Just a Drop Will Do."
    Pediatric News. By William Wilkoff.  Here.

     
    November 6, 2013
    "What Heath Care Needs is a Real Time Snapshot of You."
    WIRED, By Daniela Hernandez.  Here.

    November 13, 2013.
    "One Small Ow-eee."
    PediaBlog.  By Ned Ketyer MD.  Here.

    November 18, 2013
    "Creative disruption?  She's 29 and Set to Reboot Lab Medicine."

    MedPageToday.  By Eric Topol.  Here.
     
    February 18, 2014
    "This Woman Invented a Way to Run 30 Lab Tests on Only One Drop of Blood."
    WIRED again, by Caitlin Roper.  Here.  WIRED revisits Holmes, with an interview.
     
    February 28, 2014
    "Stanford Dropout Revolutionizes Blood Tests"
    Take Part, by Liana Aghajanian.  Here.  
     
    June, 2014
    Hematology Reports (Open Access Journal).  Full article PDF: Here.
    Chan SM, Chadwick J, Young DL, Holmes E, & Gotlib J (2014).  Intensive serial biomarker profiling for the prediction of neutropenic fever with hematologic malignancies undergoing therapy: a pilot study.  Hematology Reports 6(2).  
    Pubmed Central, here
     
    June 12, 2014
    "This CEO is Out for Blood."
    Fortune, by Roger Parloff.   Here.  Featured as cover story (picture).
     
    June 17, 2014
    "Elizabeth Holmes, Who Wants To Shake Up The Blood Testing Industry, Is A Billionaire At 30."
    Forbes [blog], by – Zina Moukheiber.  Here.
     
    July 2, 2014
    "Bloody Amazing."
    Forbes [blog 7/2, and Issue, 7/21], by Mathew Herper.  Here.
     
    June 3, 2014
    US Patent: "Systems and Methods of Sample Processing and Fluid Control in a Fluidic System."
    PDF, Patent 8,742,230 B2, 80 pp..  Here.
    "This invention is in the field of medical devices…portable medical devices that allow real-tie detection of analytes from a biological fluid…for providing point-of-care testing for a variety of medical applications."
     
    June 20, 2014
    "Theranos: Small Sample, Big Opportunity."
    Decibio [Consultancy blog].  By Eric Lakin.  Here.
     
    July 8, 2014
    "Nanotainer Revolutionizes Blood Testing." VIDEO
    USA TODAY.   Here.
     
    July 15, 2014
    "Meet Elizabeth Holmes, Silicon Valley's Latest Phenomenon"
    San Jose Mercury News, by Michelle Quinn.   Here.
     
    July 15, 2014
    "Theranos bringing 500 new jobs to Scottsdale's SkySong."
    Phoenix Business Journal.  By Angela Gonzales.   Here.  [SkySong is an ASU-affiliated tech park].
     
    July 21, 2014
    "Meet Elizabeth Holmes, the Youngest Female Self-made Billionaire Changing the World with Medical Technology."
    Women's ILAB, by Katherine Melescuic.  Here.
     
    August 11, 2014
    "Ignoring Lab Industry, Theranos Goes Its Way."
    "My Visit to Walgreens for Theranos Lab Tests." DARK REPORT (Paper by subscription only).  Table of contents here.
     
    September 8, 2014
    TechCrunch / Youtube Interview with John Sheiber.  VIDEO.
    Here.,For further details, see here.
     
    September 8, 2014
    "Elizabeth Holmes takes Theranos' blood test to tech movers, shakers."
    Biotech SF / Bizjournals – by Ron Leuty.  Discussion of TechCrunch presentation.  Here.
     
    September 29, 2014
    "This Woman's Revolutionary Idea Made Her A Billionaire — And Could Change Medicine."
    Business Insider.  By Kevin Loria.  Here.  See also June 4, 2015.
     
    September 30, 2014
    "Queen Elizabeth: Mystique of Theranos founder grows with Forbes' richest ranking."
    Biotech SF / Bizjournals – by Ron Leuty.   Here.
    October, 2014
    "Health Plans Deploy New Systems to Control Use of Lab Tests."
    Managed Care.  By Joseph Burns.  Here.
    Does not directly cite Theranos.  Cites contrasting viewpoints on the value of direct easy inexpensive test access:

    October 1, 2014

    "How One Entrepreneur is Transforming Blood Testing."
    Slate – by Kevin Loria.  Here.  [Reprint from Business Insider, 9/29, above.]

    October 16, 2014
    "She's America's Youngest Female Billionaire – And a Dropout."
    by Rachel Crane. CNN/Money.  Here.  [Text & Video.]

    October 27, 2014
    "Theranos Due Diligence: Company Profile, SWOT Analysis, Market Opportunity."
    Decibio.  Consulting group profile of Theranos and its valuation and market position (73 pages; $850).  Here.  Table of Contents, here.  Additional description here

     
    November 7, 2014
    TEDMED – Youtube – Elizabeth Holmes at TEDMED.  VIDEO.
    Here.,For further details, see here.

    November 7, 2014
    "Major Upside for Walgreens Stock"
    InvestorPlace.  By John Divine.  Here.
    "The single biggest catalyst for WAG stock in the future may be the company’s decision to partner with the privately held health-tech firm Theranos."

     
    December 8, 2014
    Fortune/Youtube – Theranos Billionaire Founder Talks Growth. VIDEO.

    Video interview with Pattie Sellers.  Here.
    For further details, see here.

    December 8, 2014
    "Here's How the World's Youngest Self-Made Female Billionaire Shows People She's In Charge."
    Business Insider.  By Richard Feloni.  Here.

    December 8, 2014
    "The New Yorker on the Promise, the Secrecy, and the Challenges of Super-Startup Theranos."
    MedCityNews.  by Meghana Keshavan.  Here.

    December 12, 2014
    "Behind the Curtain at Theranos."
    NBC News. (Video).  Interview with Ken Auletta.  Here.
    For more detail, see here.

    December 14, 2014
    "Blood Test Innovation: Less Cost, No Big Needle"
    Information Week/Healthcare.  By Larry Stofko.  Here.

    January 28, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes, Theranos: Transforming Healthcare by Embracing Failure."
    Youtube.  Stanford Graduate School of Business.  Here.
     
    February, 2015
    "Top 10 Most Innovative Companies in Health Care, 2015: #7, Theranos"
    Fast Company (staff), here.
    February, 2015
    "Vetting Theranos"
    Laboratory Economics [trade journal, subscription].  By JonDavid Kipp.  Here.
    February 2, 2015.
    "CEO Q&A: Craig Hall."
    Real Estate Daily.  By Christina Perez.  Hall was early investor in Theranos.  Here.
     
    February 3, 2015
    "Breakthrough Branding: Theranos, with Walgreens, Revolutionizes Healthcare."
    Brand Channel.  By Sheila Shayon.  Here.
     
    February 3, 2015
    "Will Theranos Turn the Lab Industry Upside Down?"
    Market Financial Analysis.  Here and here.  Order here ($99).
     
    February 6, 2015
    "Ten Things to Know about America's Youngest Female Billionaire."
    Business Insider.  By Koa Beck.  Here.
     
    February 5, 2015
    "Disruptive Technology Main Focus at Clinton Health Conference."
    California Healthline.  By Lauren McSherry. Here.
    President Clinton, Fourth Annual Health Matters Activation Summit.  "Access to health information is a basic human right," said Elizabeth Holmes, a young Silicon Valley entrepreneur who founded Theranos, a blood analytics and diagnostics company. [President] Clinton, who applauded her work to provide low-cost testing to the general public, said the company is valued at $9 billion.  See also at Clinton Foundation.org, here.
     
    February 10, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes – Theranos"
    Upstart.  By Teresa Novellino.  Here.
     
    February 10, 2015
    "Theranos CEO: Avoid Backup Plans."
    INC (from Stanford Business School.)  By Deborah Peterson.  Here.
    "I think that the minute that you have a backup plan, you've admitted that you're not going to succeed."
     
    February 17, 2015
    "Stealth Research: Is Biomedical Innovation Happening Outside the Peer-reviewed Literature?"
    JAMA.  By John P.A. Ionnanidis.  Here.
    "Theranos is just one example among many for which major efforts and major claims about biomedical progress seem to be happening outside the peer-reviewed scientific literature…stealth research creates total ambiguity about what evidence can be trusted in a mix of possibly brilliant ideas, aggressive corporate announcements, and mass media hype."   See comment at Healthnewsreview.org here (February 23, 2015).
    February 27, 2015
    "Tech company Theranos pushes consumer lab-testing bill."
    Arizona Republic.  By Ken Tucker.  Here.
    For legislative text, here.  For a blog on the topic, here.  For cloud version of the legislative text, here.  Article in March 2015 Laboratory Economics [subscription, here.]
     
    February, 2015
    "Theranos: Blood Tests that Need Just a Tiny Sample."
    Walgreens website, "At the Corner of Happy and Healthy," accessed 2/17/2015.  Here.
     
    March, 2015
    "Secret Shoppers Disappointed by Theranos."
    Laboratory Economics.   By Jondavid Klipp.  Here (subscription).
    Summarizes experiences of "secret shoppers" from Piper Jaffray, an Arizona lab, The Dark Report, and a California lab.  Most reported 3-day results and many reported standard venipuncture.
     
    March 2, 2015
    "Meet the Most Impressive Woman on Forbes' Female Billionaire List."
    Identities.Mic.  March 2, 2015.  By Julie Zeilinger.    Here.
    March 5, 2015
    "Millennials and Money: New Kids in the Forbes Billionaires Club."
    National Center for Business Journalism.  By Rian Bosse.  Elizabeth Holmes noted.  Here.
     
    March 6, 2015
    "Theranos Files Comment In Support Of Food and Drug Administration Oversight Of Laboratory-Developed Tests."
    Theranos Press Release.  Here.
    The comment letter, dated 3/1/2015, 4 pages, here.
     
    March 7, 2015.  
    "Health care in America: Shock treatment. A wasteful and inefficient industry is in the throes of great disruption."
    The Economist.  Theranos mentioned.  Here.  Also here.
    March 9, 2015
    "Theranos and Cleveland Clinic Announce Strategic Alliance to Improve Patient Care through Innovation in Testing."
    Press release.  Here.
     
    March 9, 2015
    "Cleveland Clinic Taps Theranos, Bets on Cheaper Diagnostics."
    Healthcare Finance News.  Anthony Brio.  Here.
     
    March 9, 2015.
    Fox News Cleveland Clinic/Theranos Interview.  VIDEO.
    Fox News Online.  Here.  Additional notes, here.
     
    March 9, 2015
    "Cleveland Clinic Enters 'Long-Term Strategic Alliance' with Theranos, Inc."
    Crain's Cleveland Business.  By Timothy Magaw.  Here.
     
    March 9, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes:  2015 Horatio Alger Award Winner."
    Horatio Alger Association.  Webpage,  here.  Press release, here.
     
    March 13, 2015
    "Theranos Seeks FDA Approval for Early-detection Ebola Test: George Schultz."
    Silicon Valley Business Journal.  By Ben Soriano.  Here.
     
    March 17, 2015
    "Mark Cuban Talks Healthcare Investing: Soon Our Bodies Will Be Big Math Equations."
    MedCity News.  By Stephanie Baum.  Here.
    “Sensors are the next opportunity,” Cuban said. He also voiced his enthusiasm for companies like 23andMe and Theranos.
     
    March 23, 2015
    "Boies Schiller Set to Open Palo Alto Outpost."
    The Recorder.  By Patience Haggin.  Here.
    April 7, 2015
    "Patients Can Soon Get Lab Tests Without Doctors' Orders."
    Arizona Republic.  By Yvonne Wingett Sanchez & Ken Alltucker.  Here.
     
    April 8, 2015
    "Theranos One Step Closer to Consumerizing Health."
    Decibio [Blog].  By Eric Lakin.  Here.  [Arizona consumer test law.]
     
    April 9, 2015
    "Arizona Health Law Could Boost Theranos' Biotech Prospects."
    USA Today [America's Markets].  By Marco Della Cava.  Here.
     
    April 16, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes."
    TIME [100 Most Influential People.]  By Henry Kissinger.  Here.
     
    April 17, 2015.
    "How Elizabeth Holmes became inspired to transform blood testing." VIDEO
    CBS News This Morning.   Here.  Also here,  here.  More here.
     
    April 20, 2015
    "The Doctor is Out: LabCorp to Let Consumers Order Own Tests."
    Bloomberg.  By Cynthia Koons.  Here., Also: In slightly different version, same author, Bloomberg Business Week, 4/27/15.
    April 20, 2015
    "What News at Theranos?  Lab Firm Expands in AZ."
    "In Arizona, New Consumer Direct Access Law is a First Win for California-Based Theranos."
    "Theranos: Many Questions, but Very Few Answers."
    Dark Report (subscription).  Here.
     
    April 27, 2015

    "World's Youngest Billionaire – Another Steve Jobs?"
    CNBC.  By Abigail Stevenson.  Here.
     
    April 27, 2015
    "Occam's Razor and the Secrecy of Theranos.  A Bunch of Crock?  No."
    Medcitynews.   By Meghana Keshavan.  Here.
     
    April 28, 2015
    "Guest List, State Dinner, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan."
    Washington Post.  Here.  (Including Ms. Holmes.)
    May 5, 2015
    "Theranos Sticks It to Critics, Plans Expansion of Lab Services."
    San Francisco Business Times.  By Ron Leuty.  Here.

    "Can Theranos Disrupt the Clinical Lab Testing Market?  An Objective Look at Advantages, Liabilities, and Challenges That Must Be Addressed."
    [Pathology] Executive War College.  By Dr. Robert Boorstein. [Deck]  Here.

     
    May 7, 2015
    "Theranos Jump Starts Consumer Lab Testing."
    Fortune.  By Ron Parloff.  Here.
    "My last routine blood tests, drawn at my physician’s office…cost me $433 out of pocket, even after application of my “gold”-level insurance….Had I not been insured, the lab’s price for those tests would have been $2,411, according to the explanation of benefits sent me. The same tests, according to Theranos’s price menu, would have cost me $75."
     
    May 7, 2015
    "New Laboratory Testing Firm Seeks to Shatter Old Diagnostic Testing Model."
    Genomeweb.  Here.
     
    May 7, 2015
    "Silicon Valley Lab Testing Startup Hires Clinton Advisor."
    Bloomberg.  By Caroline Chen.  Here.  (Similarly: Here.)
     
    May 11, 2015
    "Our Editor Describes Visit to Theranos Test Center."
    Dark Report.  (Subscription).  Here.
    Sidebar: "Comparing Patient Visit with Advertised Benefits."
     
    May 11, 2015
    "Airbnb Chesky, Theranos Holmes among presidential entrepreneurs."
    USAToday.  By Marco della Cava.  Here.
    Winners met with Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker and President Obama.
     
    May 11, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes on Joining the Presidential Ambassadors for Global Entrepreneurship Initiative."
    Theranos/news/posts.  By Elizabeth Holmes.  Here.
    June 2, 2015.
    Elizabeth Holmes: Charlie Rose.  VIDEO.
    Here.  Comment, Kevin Loria, June 4, 2015.
     
    June, 2015
    "Collecting More Dollars From Patients: Why It’s Time For Clinical Labs and Pathology Groups to Move To The Retail Model."
    Dark Report [Trade journal, white paper].  Here.
    This white paper does not mention "Theranos" but covers the topic of retail access to laboratory tests.
     
    June 19, 2015
    "Personalized Technology Will Upend the Doctor-Patient Relationship."
    Harvard Business Review.  By Sundar Subramanian et al.  Here.
     
    June 21, 2015
    "The Benefits to Your Brain of a Work Uniform."
    Providence Journal [Chicago Tribune].  By Alexia Elejalde-Ruiz.  Here.
     
    June 22, 2015.
    "With Carlos Slim, Billionaire Elizabeth Holmes Brings Innovative Blood Testing Method To Mexico."
    Forbes.  By Dolia Estevez.  Here.
     
    June 23, 2015
    "Theranos' New Deal with Billionair Carlos Slim May Take It to Another Level." 
    Biz Journal SF.  By Ron Leuty.  Here.
     
    July 2, 2015
    "Controversial Multibillion-Dollar Health Startup Theranos Just Got a Huge Seal of Approval from the US Government."
    Business Insider.  By Laren F Friedman.  Here.
    July 2, 2015
    "Disruptive Diagnostics Firm Theranos Gets Boost from FDA."
    Fortune.  By Roger Parloff.  Here.
     
    July 3, 2015
    "Theranos Blood Test: The Insanely Influential Stanford Professor Who Called the Comapny Out for its 'Stealth Research.' "
    Washington Post.  By Ariana Eunjung Cha.  Here.
     
    July 24, 2015
    "Biden Visits Theranos Lab as Part of Healthcare Innovation Summit"
    USAToday. By Marco della Cava.  Here.
    Theranos Press Release, here.   The Suffield Times, here.
     
    July 24, 2015
    "Theranos Pushing Direct to Consumer Blood Testing."
    Health IT Outcomes.  By Christine Kern.  Here.
     
    July 30, 2015
    "Theranos’ Holmes Marks 50th Anniversary of Medicare and Medicaid with Vision for Next 50 Years."
    Business Wire [press release].  Here.
     
    August 11, 2015
    "Nickles Takes On Theranos."
    O'Dwyer PR Inside News, here.  (Nickles is a Washington policy group).
     
    August 17, 2015
    "A Good Month for Blood."
    Laboratory Equipment.  By Michelle Taylor.  Here.
     
    August 19-20, 2015
    "Leveraging Pharmacies for Rapid Diagnostics."
    7th Annual Next Generation Diagnostics Summit (Two-Day Track on Pharmacies).
    While not specific to Theranos, a two-day meeting on lab tests in the pharmacy space.
    Here or here.
    August 24, 2015
    "Labcorp is Reaching Past Doctor's Office to the Patient."
    Investors Business Daily.  By Gillian Rich.  Here.
     
    October 5, 2015
    "Elizabeth Holmes on Using Business to Change the World."
    Forbes.  By Sarah Hedgecock.  Here.
     
    October 6, 2015
    "Self Made Billionaire on Re-inventing Blood Tests: It's Like Cocaine."
    Vanity Fair.  By Emily Jane Fox.  Here.
     
    October 6, 2015
    "How Theranos is Disrupting the Health Care Industry."
    Bloomberg. [VIDEO 6:38 min.]  Here.
    "A cholesterol test is $2.99, whereas it could cost hundreds in other locations…The response from the lab industry, they have so aggressively seeded false information about us into the press, into journalists, into physicians in the market we are in."
     
    October 7, 2015
    "Theranos Founder Elizabeth Holmes to Deliver Keynote Address at 2015 Medical Innovation Summit."
    Craigs Cleveland Business.  Here.
     
    October 12, 2015
    "Theranos' Elizabeth Holmes Call on Women to Help Each Other."
    Fortune.  By Michael Lev-Ram.  Here.
     
    October 12, 2015
    "CME Group Announces Elizabeth Holmes as the 2015 Melamed-Arditti Innovation Award Receipient."
    MarketWatch.  Here.
     

    * * *

    Finally here is Draper ssociates' Tim Draper – board member and first investor in Theranos – explaining why "the company is fantastic…I believe 100 % in Elizxabeth Holmes and her company," blaming the recent turmoil on media backlash and the status quo pushing back against someone who is 'disrupting' – which we now know is entirely 100% false as Holmes' just admitted her company's 'product' is a fraud…

     

    And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how you get to be worth $9 billion on a "technology" that was nothing but fraud.

  • The Best US Cities For Jobs… For Now

    The top cities are dominated by the tech community, with San Jose, CA and San Francisco, CA taking the top two spots in the overall ranking.

    Here is the list of top 25 cities based on their overall ranking – Bloomberg points out that San Jose has risen from No. 7 to No. 1

    As Bloomberg reports, Glassdoor Inc., a career website, published its list of the top 25 cities for jobs based on factors such as salary, job satisfaction, and cost of living.

    Breaking down the details, here is the list for the median salary component – again led by tech heavy cities such as San Jose and San Francisco.

     

    Job satisfaction…

     

    And cost of living… note how incredible the cost of living is in San Jose and San Francisco, surely indicative of the run up in tech companies over the past few years in Silicon Valley, as those high wages and overzealous cash infusions by venture capitalists led to higher cost of living.

    We assume this excludes living in a box in someone's front room.

    Established tech communities such as San Jose, San Francisco, as well as up and coming tech cities such as Seattle, Boston, and Austin dominate the lists. "This demonstrates why so many people are looking to move to the San Francisco Bay area: Job satisfaction, work-life balance, and hiring opportunities are unparalleled compared to anywhere else in the country. It's not a surprise to see cities like Seattle and Austin at the top since they all have rising technology communities, great institutions for higher education and research, as well as affordable neighborhoods." said Dr. Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Glassdoor.

    While we're happy for all of these tech heavy cities making this list, we would caution those reading not to pack up and head to the West Coast just yet. While Silicon Valley has undoubtedly had a good run, the reality is that the second great tech bubble has popped, and impacts are only just beginning to be felt.

    * * *

    As a refresher for those who are curious, here is a quick timeline chronicling the bursting of the second tech bubble. We first pointed out back in January of 2014 when venture capitalists first started to grow overly speculative and began to pour large sums of money into tech start-ups that the second tech bubble had arrived – at that time there were more than 30 companies in the US, Europe, and China that were valued at $1 billion or more by the private markets.

    Our analysis was confirmed a year later when investment bankers had to deliver the news to Dropbox that there was no way it could IPO at its $10 billion private valuation, let alone provide any upside to recent investors.

    Then in January of this year we pointed out that as markets were crashing, more and more "unicorns" (companies with a private valuation in excess of $1 billion) were going to be forced to raise capital at lower valuations, and these down rounds would eventually lead to firms having to admit that they'd have to go to market at a much more humble valuation than once thought.

    Only one month later, we showed that the bursting of the bubble had made its way to the real economy by way of mass layoffs at all of these once up and coming technology companies. One executive recruiter said at the time "I think what we're seeing is bigger than a small correction. Everyone thinks it will be different this time, but it never is."

    And finally, just today we reported that the aggregate of all of the aforementioned events has now made its way into Silicon Valley's real estate market. Luxury homes are now staying on the market longer, and the reality is finally starting to hit home: "The peak is behind us, and that's becoming clearer and clearer to builders and buyers" said an agent of real estate consultancy John Burns.

  • Are Globalists Evil Or Just Misunderstood?

    Submitted by Brandon Smith of Alt-Market.com,

    I recently received requests from two different readers, one asking for articles covering the “mindset” of globalists (why they do what they do), and another request for articles covering globalist “occultism.” I find that these two topics are very difficult to pursue with a large number of people for a few reasons:

    1) Many people do not accept the reality that a group of financial elitists colluding (conspiring) to obtain total global power even exists. Therefore, in order to delve into the topic of the globalist mindset with these “skeptics,” I would first have to re-cover page after page of evidence showing that they not only exist and collude, but that they openly boast about their plans on a regular basis. This is time consuming, to say the least.

     

    2) For some of the people that do eventually accept the reality of a globalist cabal, the argument eventually arises that “yes, there is collusion, but it is merely driven by greed and profit motive,” and not as nefarious as we conspiracy tin-foil mad-hatters imagine.

     

    3) For others, there is a full acceptance of the reality of an organized globalist cult, but they argue that these people are simply a product of a corrupt and ill-structured socio-political system. That is to say, they think that the globalists are a symptom of the troubles that plague humanity, rather than a cause.

     

    This argument is often made by people promoting their own collectivist agenda in one form or another (socialists, communists, scientific dictatorships controlled by people supposedly much smarter than the rest of us, one world-one mind spiritually unhinged theosophic weirdos, etc.). They claim a new system, their system, is the solution rather than getting rid of the globalists, which they say would only leave a “power vacuum” for more tyrants to take their place.

     

    4) Finally, there are the evangelical revelations seekers obsessed with Armageddon. They fully accept that the globalists exist, that they conspire internationally to gain power and influence towards the goal of a “new world order” and that they are essentially evil minded in their intentions. However, they argue that it is either futile to fight against such people because they are supported by power from somewhere beyond, or they even argue that to fight against the globalists is wrong because it is in defiance of the plan put forward in the Bible.

    So, as you can see, it is a veritable circus of horrors whenever I write on the subject of who the globalists really are and what they really want. Beyond that, it is very difficult to examine this subject matter, even with ample evidence, without coming off like a wackaloon.

    It is hard enough convincing people of the obvious economic crisis facing America and the rest of the world and convincing them to put in minimal effort to prepare, let alone convincing them of the psychopathic and cult-like nature of the elite behind that crisis. In other words, if you approach someone new to this information cold and hit them right away with tales of luciferians, Washington D.C. child pedo-rings and gay romp power-club parties in the California Redwoods with a giant stone owl called “Molech,” you probably aren’t going to get your foot in the door.

    That said, I’ll address the inevitable arguments above very quickly before I begin my analysis of the Globalist mind.

    1) Psychopaths tend to naturally gravitate towards positions of power, and despite some foolish assumptions out there that these people are too volatile to play nice with others, they do in fact work together as long as there is a guarantee of mutual benefit.

     

    Elites have conspired throughout history, this is well documented fact. I find it amazing that some folks cannot grasp the idea that they might also be conspiring today. If you need evidence of such collusion, you are welcome to read my articles The Fall Of America Signals The Rise Of The New World Order and Order Out Of Chaos: The Doctrine That Runs The World.  If you want to know where to find these people simply look at the memberships of institutions designed specifically to promote globalism – Bilderberg, the Council on Foreign Relations, Tavistock, the Trilateral Commission, The Club Of Rome, Rand Corporation, the IMF, the Bank for International Settlements, ect.  Though they often obscure their more malicious intentions, globalists are relatively easy to find.

     

    One might argue that the problem of organized psychopathy cannot be dealt with unless one confronts individual psychopathy. I’m sorry to say that at least 10% of the population (according to psychologist Carl Gustav Jung) at any given time has elements of inborn latent psychopathy and at least 1% is actively psychopathic. You will NEVER remove psychopathy from humanity. It is an inborn quality. What you can do, though, is disrupt or destroy organizations of people that foster and elevate psychopaths. Organized psychopathy is the real and pressing problem.

     

    2) If you need convincing that the globalists are not just “greedy capitalists” out to make a buck at the expense of the world, check out my article Global Eitism: The Character Traits Of Truly Evil People and read some of the quotes directly attributed to them. Their goal is to gain as much power over the masses as possible. They see themselves as modern Pharaohs, not as businessmen. Wealth is a side-note.

     

    3) There have been only fleeting instances of societies without the all-pervasive influence of organized elitism in history. From these minor instances, though, we can see bursts of human potential, productivity and invention, as well as greater respect for inherent conscience and justice.  Sadly, no one in the past has ever taken the action of removing elitist groups entirely as a factor of influence.

     

    Anyone who claims that the globalists are nothing more than a “symptom” is probably trying to sell you on an ideology rather than a real solution. The fact of the matter is, we have never lived in a world without the influence of globalist conspiracy. They are like a cancer that has turned psychopathy into a religion. Removing the globalists should be a top priority. NO system is going to succeed, regardless of how brilliantly conceived, unless the elitists are out of the picture.

     

    I would even venture to say that the people who argue that the globalists are nothing more than a symptom are in fact HELPING the globalists by distracting activists away from the real task at hand. Playing at philosophy and theoretical society building will not change the existing power structure in any way, nor will it remove the muzzle of a rifle from the back of your head as you stare down at the ditch that is to become your final resting place.

     

    4) The majority of the Bible is composed of stories of good standing against evil, and I simply cannot take anyone seriously who argues that the Bible demands we sit idle in the face of despotism. I don’t believe in the modernized “Left Behind” interpretations of “apocalypse” and even if I did, different groups have been saying that the end times are right around the corner for ages. Frankly, no one knows or will know if such an event of metaphysical proportions is taking place anyway.

    Now, I do believe in full-spectrum crisis and societal collapse, because these events have happened over and over again and can even be reasonably predicted according to past indicators. I also believe that current events are rife with such indicators and that a collapse is taking place in stages today. I also know that there are groups of elites engineering this collapse and I know exactly why because they have openly admitted their goals (read my article The Economic End Game Explained). Apocalypse is not my concern. Right and wrong, justice and tyranny are my concerns. I’ll leave the rest to more omniscient and omnipresent beings.

    The Problem We Face Is Organized Evil

    Now that the above questions are out of the way we can jump into the core of the problem. And no, the core of the problem is not the “system” we live in per say, or our methodology of living and progressing as a species. Again, there are too many eggheads in the liberty movement that like to pretend they have grand and ingenious new ways of looking at the world, and if only we would just “listen to their brilliant vision” everything would change for the better. When you boil down their philosophies you often find they have no new ideas whatsoever, or that their ideas cannot be implemented because they have not dealt with the elephant in the room — the globalists.

    Philosophy without tangible action and verifiable results is ultimately useless in the face of true evil. Intellectual warriors rarely win wars, but they do often die horribly as a result of their naivety and defenselessness.

    To answer the question in the title of this article, yes, the globalists are in fact evil and the only misunderstandings are on the part of wide-eyed skeptics that have bought into the idea that “evil” is a moral conception created by religion rather than an inherent quality of human beings.

    As Carl Jung discovered in his studies on the collective unconscious, people are born with inherent and conflicting conceptions and traits, or “dualities.” Good vs. Evil is an important duality we all come in to the world dealing with, it is not a mere product of environment or religious influence. That which is “good” is often dictated by what we call “conscience,” which again is an inherent idea or “voice,” and is only partly influenced by environment. The fact of inherent character traits and universal moral codes is present in anthropological studies as well as psychological studies beyond Jung’s very extensive work.

    To define evil, we would have to look at those ideas and actions that are opposite inherent conscience. The globalists have basically constructed a festering belief system around everything that is contrary to our moral compass. I will attempt to dissect some elements of that belief system from a secular point of view. Wish me luck…

    Occultism

    Occultism in itself is not necessarily “evil,” it only means “secret knowledge.” But the history of occultism is plagued by rather evil deeds and attitudes. John F. Kennedy once warned of secret societies and secret proceedings, and with good reason. For thousands of years, occult groups often withheld valuable knowledge from the masses as a means to influence behavior and control the direction of society. This did not have to be “magical” knowledge, whatever that means. Usually, it was scientific or psychological knowledge.

    Say for example that a group of elitists withheld detailed knowledge of an impending economic collapse because this knowledge gave them a feeling of superiority and an advantage that they could exploit to gain power over others. Often, occult knowledge, secret knowledge, is driven by the selfish desire of one group to maintain a sense of dominance over another. Is it evil to withhold knowledge that could save lives for the sake of self-elevation? I would say absolutely.

    Occultism can also lead to temptations of ever increasing criminality.  If groups of people in positions of power maintain a well-oiled machine of secrecy that draws a dark curtain on their behavior, a machine that allows them to cover for each others actions to ensure no repercussions from outsiders, it is only a matter of time before the lack of transparency opens a door to greater evil.  One act of evil left unpunished tends to breed many future acts of evil practiced with impunity.

    Luciferianism

    So yeah, it’s almost impossible to broach this subject without sounding crazy to people who aren’t already familiar with it. But as requested, I’ll take a stab at it.

    Do globalists really believe in a devil with a pitchfork and hooves and horns? I really don’t know. What I do know is that many of them believe in the ideas behind the mythology of the figure (even Saul Alinsky dedicated his book ‘Rules For Radicals’ to Lucifer).

    The Lucifer mythology is one of rebellion, a rebellion against the the Christian God. But how would this translate to elitist behavior? They define inherent conscience and moral compass (checks and balances put in place by God?) as a “restriction” or imprisonment of the individual, and they seem to only esteem individuals as those seeking their own “Godhood.”

    The way liberty proponents value individualism is very different from the way elitists value individualism.

    Lucifer as an archetypal figure represents a rebellion against almost EVERYTHING, including nature. Of course, nature is not a toy to be played with selfishly because catastrophe inevitably results. Moral compass is a guide that keeps humanity from destroying itself, and without it civilizations fall. Luciferianism, at the very least, fosters destructive tendencies and rebellion against the very fabric of humanity. With such people at the helm of entire nations, millions if not billions of innocents will suffer in the scorched path of elites seeking to revolt against inherent moral and natural boundaries as they role play in an ignorant daydream of satanic hero worship, and this is without a doubt evil.

    Do What Thou Wilt

    Attributed to Aleister Crowley, a self-professed satanist, you will see this ideology pop up in globalist circles and pop-culture icons alike. Crowley apologists often argue that the quote it is taken from refers to the “law of love.” But the love of what? The love of others, or the love of one’s self? Do what thou wilt as long as it does not hurt others, or do what thou wilt regardless of the consequences?

    The latter interpretation is clearly the one globalists have taken to heart. Since elitists consistently treat the lowly masses as vermin that need to be exterminated for the good of the planet (and their own amusement), I see little indication that they have the ability to conceive of love, let alone adopt a philosophy of love. Do what thou wilt, however the idea was originally intended, has become a rationale for the globalist propensity of crushing others in the name of “greatness”.

    Moral Relativism

    Evil people are not as immune to the judgments of others as you might think. In fact, many of them become a bit obsessive about people accepting or even praising the things they do. I can only theorize that if in their minds everyone else subscribes to an evil behavior then it is no longer evil, but normal.

    Moral relativism is the act of rationalizing a destructive or evil process by claiming that a positive end result or intention washes away responsibility. The ends justify the means. Globalists could not care less about the consequences of their actions to others, but they do feel the need to justify those actions in a way that people will embrace. From my observations, the majority of globalist propaganda revolves entirely around the concept of moral relativism and the lie that good is only about perception while evil is a “gray area,” or an illusion. As Kevin Spacey says in the movie 'The Usual Suspects', “The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist…”

    The Solution

    As stated earlier, it really does not matter what brand of social system we implement. It really does not matter what kind of economic model we employ. It really does not matter if we somehow find a way to promote enlightened thinking on a massive scale. None of it matters if we do not also confront the organized evil of the globalist cabal.

    It is interesting how many people strive so hard to avoid acknowledging the fight that is coming by clinging to the notion that the globalists are “misunderstood” or “not important” in the grand scheme of things.

    While I work to promote alternative trade models through localism and alternative-security models through community preparedness teams, I also accept that these efforts are a half-measure; mere preparation for an unavoidable conflict between people who hold the contents of their conscience dear (those who view the non-aggression principle as an integral part of a free and healthy civilization), and the globalists, who hold nothing dear accept themselves, their cult and their ambitions.

    Evil is a part of every human being, just as good is a part of every human being. It is a battle we all struggle with until the day we die. But organized evil is something else entirely. It is not something we have to tolerate, and it is something we can change. Until it is expunged from our society, no other solutions can be fully enacted. Therefore, the solution begins with the end of organized evil, and it is a solution I plan to enact in my own way. The solution begins with the eradication of the globalists.

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Today’s News 18th May 2016

  • The Fed Needs to Raise Rates at the June and December Meetings (Video)

    By EconMatters

     

    It is obvious that the unintended consequences of ZIRP have destroyed financial market structure which ultimately flows through to the broader economy.

    All the financials, the layoffs on Wall Street, and the way assets are trading in the financial markets in general illustrate that financial markets are not healthy right now, and slowly deteriorating every year since the initial benefits of the sugar induced euphoric high of Quantitative Easing Policies by Central Banks around the world has burned off.

    An orderly exit by central banks is the best possible solution for trying to resuscitate some semblance of normal functioning financial market pricing mechanisms for assets around the globe.

    © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

  • Undeniable Evidence That The Real Economy Is Already In Recession

    Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    You are about to see a chart that is undeniable evidence that we have already entered a major economic slowdown. 

    In the “real economy”, stuff is bought and sold and shipped around the country by trucks, railroads and planes.  When more stuff is being bought and sold and shipped around the country, the “real economy” is growing, and when less stuff is being bought and sold and shipped around the country, the “real economy” is shrinking.

    I know that might sound really basic, but I want everyone to be on the same page as we proceed in this article. 

    Just because stock prices are artificially high right now does not mean that the U.S. economy is in good shape.  In fact, there was a stock rally at this exact time of the year in 2008 even though the underlying economic fundamentals were rapidly deteriorating.  We all remember what happened later that year, so we should not exactly be rejoicing that precisely the same pattern that we witnessed in 2008 is happening again right in front of our eyes.

    During the month of April, the Cass Transportation Index was down 4.9 percent on a year over year basis.  What this means is that a lot less stuff was bought and sold and shipped around the country in April 2016 when compared to April 2015.  The following comes from Wolf Richter

    Freight shipments by truck and rail in the US fell 4.9% in April from the beaten-down levels of April 2015, according to the Cass Transportation Index, released on Friday. It was the worst April since 2010, which followed the worst March since 2010. In fact, shipment volume over the four months this year was the worst since 2010.

     

    This is no longer statistical “noise” that can easily be brushed off.

    Of course this was not just a one month fluke.  The reality is that we have now seen the Cass Shipping Index decline on a year over year basis for 14 consecutive months.  Here is more commentary and a chart from Wolf Richter

    The Cass Freight Index is not seasonally adjusted. Hence the strong seasonal patterns in the chart. Note the beaten-down first four months of 2016 (red line):

     

    Cass Freight Index - Wolfstreet

    This is undeniable evidence that the “real economy” has been slowing down for more than a year.  In 2007-2008 we saw a similar thing happen, but the Federal Reserve and most of the “experts” boldly assured us that there was not going to be a recession.

    Of course then we immediately proceeded to plunge into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

    Traditionally, railroad activity has been a key indicator of where the U.S. economy is heading next.  Just a few days ago, I wrote about how U.S. rail traffic was down more than 11 percent from a year ago during the month of April, and I included a photo that showed 292 Union Pacific engines sitting in the middle of the Arizona desert doing absolutely nothing.

    Well, just yesterday one of my readers sent me a photograph of a news article from North Dakota about how a similar thing is happening up there.  Hundreds of rail workers are being laid off, and engines are just sitting idle on the tracks because there is literally nothing for them to do…

    North Dakota Railroad Engines Idle

    Intuitively, does it seem like this should be happening in a “healthy” economy?

    Of course not.

    The reason why this is happening is because businesses have been selling less stuff.  Total business sales have now been declining for almost two years, and they are now close to 15 percent lower than they were in late 2014.

    Because sales are way down, unsold inventories are really starting to pile up.  The inventory to sales ratio is now close to the level it was at during the worst moments of the last recession, and many analysts expect it to continue to keep going up.

    Why can’t people understand what is happening?  So far this year, job cut announcements are up 24 percent and the number of commercial bankruptcies is shooting through the roof.  Signs that we are in the early chapters of a new economic downturn are all around us, and yet denial is everywhere.

    For instance, just consider this excerpt from a CNBC article entitled “This key recession signal is broken“…

    Treasury yields are behaving as if they are signaling a recession, but strategists say this time it’s more likely a sign of something else.

     

    The market has been buzzing about the flattening yield curve, or the fact that yields on longer duration Treasurys are getting closer to yields on shorter duration securities.

     

    In the case of 10-year notes and two-year notes, that spread was the flattest Friday than it has been on a closing basis since late 2007. The yield curve had turned negative in 2006 and stayed there for months in 2007 before turning higher ahead of the Great Recession. The spread was at 95 at Friday’s curve but widened Monday to more than 96.

    Treasury yields are very, very clearly telling us that a new recession is here, but because the “experts” don’t want to believe it they are telling us that the signal is “broken”.

     

     

    For many Americans, all that seems to matter is that the stock market has recovered from the horrible crashes last August and earlier this year.  But in the end, I am convinced that those crashes will simply be regarded as “foreshocks” of a much greater crash in our not too distant future.

    But if you don’t want to believe me, perhaps you will listen to Goldman Sachs.  They just came out with six reasons why stocks are about to tumble.

    Or perhaps you will believe Bank of America.  They just came out with nine reasons why a big stock market decline is on the horizon.

    To me, one of the big developments has been the fact that stock buybacks are really starting to dry up.  In fact, announced stock buybacks have declined 38 percent so far this year

    After snapping up trillions of dollars of their own stock in a five-year shopping binge that dwarfed every other buyer, U.S. companies from Apple Inc. to IBM Corp. just put on the brakes. Announced repurchases dropped 38 percent to $244 billion in the last four months, the biggest decline since 2009, data compiled by Birinyi Associates and Bloomberg show. “If the only meaningful source of demand in the market is companies buying their own shares back, then what happens if that goes away?” asked Brad McMillan, CIO of Commonwealth “We should be concerned.”

    Stock buybacks have been one of the key factors keeping stock prices at artificially inflated levels even though underlying economic conditions have been deteriorating.  Now that stock buybacks are drying up, it is going to be difficult for stocks to stay disconnected from economic reality.

    A lot of people have been asking me recently when the next crisis is going to arrive.

    I always tell them that it is already here.

    Just like in early 2008, economic conditions are rapidly deteriorating, but the stock market has not gotten the memo quite yet.

    And just like in 2008, when the financial markets do finally start catching up with reality it will likely happen very quickly.

    So don’t take your eyes off of the deteriorating economic fundamentals, because it is inevitable that the financial markets will follow eventually.

  • Obama: Worst President In U.S. History?

    Bush was a horrible president. At the time, I thought he was the worst president in American history.

    But Obama has made a lot of firsts himself …

    For example, Obama:

    • Sentenced whistleblowers to 31 times the jail time of all prior u.s. presidents combined
    • Has granted less pardons than any president since Garfield, who served only 200 days as president before being assassinated in 1881
    • May be the only U.S. president in history who failed to deliver a single year of at least 3% economic growth (when adjusted for inflation)

    In addition, Obama has presided over:

    And as the New York Times notes this week, Obama has been at war longer than any president in history.

    Worst … president … ever.

  • Welcome To 1984

    Authored by Chris Hedges, originally posted at TruthDig.com,

    The artifice of corporate totalitarianism has been exposed. The citizens, disgusted by the lies and manipulation, have turned on the political establishment. But the game is not over. Corporate power has within its arsenal potent forms of control. It will use them. As the pretense of democracy is unmasked, the naked fist of state repression takes its place. America is about—unless we act quickly—to get ugly.

    “Our political system is decaying,” said Ralph Nader when I reached him by phone in Washington, D.C. “It’s on the way to gangrene. It’s reaching a critical mass of citizen revolt.”

    This moment in American history is what Antonio Gramsci called the “interregnum”—the period when a discredited regime is collapsing but a new one has yet to take its place. There is no guarantee that what comes next will be better. But this space, which will close soon, offers citizens the final chance to embrace a new vision and a new direction.

    This vision will only be obtained through mass acts of civic mobilization and civil disobedience across the country. Nader, who sees this period in American history as crucial, perhaps the last opportunity to save us from tyranny, is planning to rally the left for three days, from May 23 to May 26 at Constitution Hall in Washington, D.C., in what he is calling “Breaking Through Power” or “Citizen’s Revolutionary Week.” He is bringing to the capital scores of activists and community leaders to speak, organize and attempt to mobilize to halt our slide into despotism.

    “The two parties can implode politically,” Nader said. “They can be divided by different candidates and super PACs. But this doesn’t implode their paymasters.”

    “Elections have become off-limits to democracy,” he went on. “They have become off-limits to democracy’s fundamental civil community or civil society. When that happens, the very roots shrivel and dry up. Politics is now a sideshow. Politics does not bother corporate power. Whoever wins, they win. Both parties represent Wall Street over Main Street. Wall Street is embedded in the federal government.”

    Donald Trump, like Hillary Clinton, has no plans to disrupt the corporate machinery, although Wall Street has rallied around Clinton because of her predictability and long service to the financial and military elites. What Trump has done, Nader points out, is channel “the racist, right-wing militants” within the electorate, embodied in large part by the white working poor, into the election process, perhaps for one last time.

    Much of the left, Nader argues, especially with the Democratic Party’s blatant rigging of the primaries to deny Bernie Sanders the nomination, grasps that change will come only by building mass movements. This gives the left, at least until these protofascist forces also give up on the political process, a window of opportunity. If we do not seize it, he warns, we may be doomed.

    He despairs over the collapse of the commercial media, now governed by the primacy of corporate profit.

    “Trump’s campaign has enormous appeal to the commercial mass media,” Nader said. “He brought huge ratings during the debates. He taunted the networks. He said, ‘I’m boycotting this debate. It’s going to cost you profit.’ Has this ever happened before in American history? It shows you the decay, the commercialization of public elections.”

    The impoverished national discourse, fostered by a commercial mass media that does not see serious political debate as profitable and focuses on the trivial, the salacious and the inane, has empowered showmen and con artists such as Trump.

    “Trump speaks in a very plain language, at the third-grade level, according to some linguists,” Nader said. “He speaks like a father figure. He says, ‘I’ll get you jobs. I’ll bring back industry. I’ll bring back manufacturing. I’ll protect you from immigrants.’ The media never challenges him. He is not asked, ‘How are we going do all of this? What is step one? Step two? Is the White House going to ignore the Congress and the courts?’ He astonishes his audience. He amazes them with his bullying, his lying, his insults, like ‘Little Marco,’ the wall Mexico is going to pay for, no more entry in the country by Muslims—a quarter of the human race—until we figure it out. The media never catches up with him. He is always on the offensive. He is always news. The commercial media wants the circus. It gives them high ratings and high profit.”

    The focus on info-entertainment has left not only left the public uninformed and easily manipulated but has locked out the voices that advocate genuine reform and change.

    “The commercial media does not have time for citizen groups and citizen leaders who are really trying to make America great, whether by advancing health safety or economic well-being,” Nader bemoaned. “These groups are overwhelmed. They’re marginalized. They’re kept from nourishing the contents of national, state and local elections. Look at the Sunday news shows. No one can get on to demonstrate that the majority of the people want full Medicare for all with the free choice of doctors and hospitals, not only more efficient but more life-saving. There was a major press conference a few days ago at the National Press Club. The leading advocates of full Medicare for all, or single-payer, were there, Dr. Steffie Woolhandler and Dr. Sidney Wolfe, the heads of Physicians for a National Health Program. This is a group with about 15,000 physicians on board. Nobody came. There was a stringer for an indie media outlet and the corporate crime reporter. There are all kinds of major demonstrations, 1,300 arrests outside the Congress protesting the corruption of money in politics. Again no coverage, except a little on NPR and on ‘Democracy Now!’ ”

    “The system is gamed,” he said. “The only way out of it is to mobilize the civil society.

    “We are organizing the greatest gathering of accomplished citizen advocacy groups on the greatest number of redirections and reforms ever brought together in American history under one roof,” he said of his upcoming event. “The first day is called Breaking Through Power, How it Happens. We have 18 groups who have demonstrated it with tiny budgets for over three decades on issues such as road safety, removing hundreds of hazardous or ineffective pharmaceuticals from the market, changing food habits from junk food to nutrition and rescuing people from death row who were falsely convicted of homicides. What if we tripled the budgets and the staffs of these groups? Eighteen of these groups have a total budget that is less than what one of dozens of CEOs make in a year.”

    Nader called on Sanders to join in the building of a nationwide civic mobilization. He said that while Clinton may borrow some of his rhetoric, she and the Democratic Party establishment would not incorporate Sander’s populist appeals against Wall Street into the party platform. If Sanders does not join a civic mobilization, Nader warned, there would be “a complete disintegration of his movement.”

    Nader also said he was worried that Clinton’s high negativity ratings, along with potential scandals, including the possible release of her highly paid speeches to corporations such as Goldman Sachs, could see Trump win the presidency.

    I have her lecture contract with the Harry Walker lecture agency,” he said. “She had a clause in the contract with these business sponsors, which basically said the doors will be closed. There will be no press. You will pay $1,000 for a stenographer to give me, for my exclusive use, a stenographic record of what I said. You will pay me $5,000 a minute. She has it all. She can’t say, ‘We will look into it or we’ll see if we can find it.’ She has been dissembling. And her latest rant is, ‘I’ll release the transcripts if everyone else does.’ ‘Who is everybody else?’ as Bernie Sanders rebutted. He doesn’t give highly paid speeches behind closed doors to Wall Street firms, business executives or business trade groups. Trump doesn’t give quarter-of-a-million-dollar speeches behind closed doors to business. So by saying ‘I will release all of my transcripts if everyone else does,’ she makes a null and void assertion. This is characteristic of the Clintons’ dissembling and slipperiness. It’s transcripts for Hillary. It’s tax returns for Trump.”

    While Nader supports the building of third parties, he cautions that these parties—he singles out the Green Party and the Libertarian Party—will go nowhere without mass mobilization to pressure the centers of power. He called on the left to reach out to the right in a joint campaign to dismantle the corporate state. Sanders could play a large role in this mobilization, Nader said, because “he is in the eye of the mass media. He is building this rumble from the people.”

    “What does he have to lose?” Nader asked of Sanders. “He’s 74. He can lead this massive movement. I don’t think he wants to let go. His campaign has exceeded his expectations. He is enormously energized. If he leads the civic mobilization before the election, whom is he going to help? He’s going to help the Democratic Party, without having to go around being a one-line toady expressing his loyalty to Hillary. He is going to be undermining the Republican Party. He is going to be saying to the Democratic Party, ‘You better face up to the majoritarian crowds and their agenda, or you’re going to continue losing in these gerrymandered districts to the Republicans in Congress.’ These gerrymandered districts can be overcome with a shift of 10 percent of the vote. Once the rumble from the people gets underway, nothing can stop it. No one person can, of course, lead this. There has to be a groundswell, although Sanders can provide a focal point”

    Nader said that a Clinton presidency would further enflame the right wing and push larger segments of the country toward extremism.

    “We will get more quagmires abroad, more blowback, more slaughter around the world and more training of fighters against us who will be more skilled to bring their fight here,” he said of a Clinton presidency. “Budgets will be more screwed against civilian necessities. There will be more Wall Street speculation. She will be a handmaiden of the corporatists and the military industrial complex. There comes a time, in any society, where the rubber band snaps, where society can’t take it anymore.”

  • Congressman Exposes Porn Habit With 'Innocent' Facebook Post

    Well that's embarrassing…

    Meet 'Conservative' Mike Webb – he is running for U.S. Congress in Virginia's 8th District, and he would appreciate your vote.

     

    He would also appreciate, as Gawker reports, judging from a screenshot uploaded to his Facebook page earlier today, a little alone time with the pages “IVONE SEXY AMATEUR” and “LAYLA RIVERA TIGHT BOOTY.”

    For over a day now the following screen-grab – showing his investigation into a Human Resources company – has been posted to his campaign page… the only thing is – the 2 far left tabs – based on our deep and lengthy research are pornographic movie sites…

     

    Ok – so we have all done it – come on. But the story gets better, as Webb then offers the following explanation for his surfing habits (please remove all fluids from your mouth before reading)…

    Curious by nature, I wanted to test the suggestion that somehow, lurking out in the pornographic world there is some evil operator waiting for the one in a gazillion chance that a candidate for federal office would go to that particular website and thereby be infected with a virus that would cause his or her FEC data file to crash the FECfile application each time that it was loaded on the day of the filing deadline, as well as impact other critical campaign systems.

     

    Well, the Geek Squad techs testified to me, after servicing thousands of computers at the Baileys Crossroads location that they had never seen any computer using their signature virus protection for the time period to acquire over 4800 viruses, 300 of which would require re-installation of the operating system. We are currently awaiting their attempt at recovery of files on that machine accidentally deleted when they failed to backup files before re-installation, a scenario about which Matthew Wavro speculated openly to me before we were informed by the Geek Squad that that had indeed occurred….

     

    But, now let me tell you the results of my empirical inquiry that introduced me to Layla and Ivone. Around Powerball lottery time, January 9, 2016, I calculated the odds that my friend Rev. Howard John Wesley and I working independently arrived at the same prayer plan, and I was able to determine that there was about a one in a billion chance that that could have occurred in the way that it did. (https://www.facebook.com/search/top/…). Well, as much as folks like Duffy Taylor want to hope that the Devil is waiting for Christian candidates on a particular pornographic website to infect his or her FEC data file is even more improbable than my Paul and Silas story, and I know that Duffy Taylor is not a man of faith belief; so, I don’t know how he empirically arrives at his conclusion. I couldn’t see the probability or possibility without a RAND computer.

     

    But, that is the news that will never be printed, but no matter. We found a few more “silent majority” worms today, but we also picked up a few more of the faithful. So, not a bad day, at all.

    As one witty Twitter-er quipped… What's more embarrassing, the porn tabs or the fact that he is using Yahoo as a search engine? I’m going to go with Yahoo on this one.

  • Middle Class Destitution – A Devastating Tale From America's Heartland

    Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

    He had made the drive enough times to already suspect what he might find. Stride Rite had left Huntington for Mexico at the tail end of the recession; Breyers Ice Cream had closed its doors after 100 years. In the weeks after each factory closing in his part of Indiana, Lewandowski had listened to politicians make promises about jobs — high-tech jobs, right-to-work jobs, clean-energy jobs — but instead Indiana had lost 60,000 middle-class jobs in the past decade and replaced them with a surge of low-paying work in health care, hospitality and fast food. Wages of male high school graduates had dropped 19 percent in the past two decades, and the wealth divide between the middle class and the upper class had quadrupled.

     

    “These jobs aren’t the solution so much as they’re part of the problem,” Lewandowski said, and now the result of so much churn was becoming evident all across Indiana and lately in Huntington, too. Fast-food consumption was beginning to tick up. Poverty was up. Foreclosures were up. Meth usage up. Heroin up. Death rate up. In Dan Quayle’s Middle America, one of the biggest news stories of the year had been the case of a mother who had let her three-week-old child suck heroin off her finger.

     

    “Despair is our business, and business is booming,” Lewandowski said…

     

    “This is how it feels to be sold out by your country.”

     

    “It’s pure greed.”

     

    “They wanted to add another 6 feet to their yachts.”

     

    “We’re becoming like a third-world country. We’re going to have nothing left but fast food.”

     

    "Fast food and hedge funds. That’s where we’re going.”

     

    – From the Washington Post article: From Belief to Outrage: The Decline of the Middle Class Reaches the Next American Town

    I write a lot about the middle class. It’s been one of the core themes here at Liberty Blitzkrieg since inception, yet my posts tend to be filled with statistics and sarcasm, and often lack the crucial element of heart. In order to truly connect with the public and shift their sentiments from apathy to action, it’s imperative to create a deep emotional connection. I admittedly have not done a great job in this regard. Fortunately for all of us, Eli Saslow of the Washington Post has done just that.

    I read a lot of articles, and I can’t remember anything that hit me as hard as what he published this past weekend. It tells the tale of the spirit-crushing decimation of the American middle class through the lens of eternal optimist, Chris Setser. Chris is a man who always went above and beyond in order to provide a good life for himself and his family. Working the graveyard shift at an Indiana United Technologies plant so that he could be home when his kids came home from school, Mr. Setser lived his entire life living by the mantra: “Things have a way of working in the end.” Until they didn’t.

    Chris’ transformation from an optimistic Democrat, to a pissed off, jaded Trump supporter, is a microcosm for what’s happening all across the country. Through his eyes, you witness a justified desperation, and a painful recognition that working hard and staying positive simply aren’t good enough in America’s current hollowed out, oligarch-owned, shell company of an economy.

    Below, I provide some excerpts from the article, but these select passages don’t do it justice. I think this piece is so important, it’s imperative you read it in full and share it with everyone you know. The future of America rests upon reversing this pernicious trend.

    From the Washington Post:

    Chris Setser worked a 12-hour graveyard shift while his children slept, cleaned the house while they were at school and then went outside to wait for the bus bringing them home. He stood on the porch as he often did and surveyed the life he had built. The lawn was trimmed. The stairs were swept. The weekly family schedule was printed on a chalkboard. A sign near the door read, “A Stable Home Is A Happy Home,” and now a school bus came rolling down a street lined by wide sidewalks and American flags toward a five-bedroom house on the corner lot.

     

    “Right on time,” Setser called out to the driver, waving to his children as they came off the bus.

     

    In came 14-year-old Ashley, holding a payment notice for a school field trip. “Are we going to become one of those families with a voucher?” she asked.

    “Don’t worry,” he said, handing her $20 from his wallet.

     

    All around him an ideological crisis was spreading across Middle America as it continued its long fall into dependency: median wages down across the country, average income down, total wealth down in the past decade by 28 percent. For the first time ever, the vaunted middle class was not the country’s base but a disenfranchised minority, down from 61 percent of the population in the 1970s to just 49 percent as of last year. As a result of that decline, confusion was turning into fear. Fear was giving way to resentment. Resentment was hardening into a sense of outrage that was unhinging the country’s politics and upending a presidential election.

     

    Setser had heard rumors earlier in the day that the company had decided to move its operations to Mexico, but he found them hard to believe. While dozens of other manufactures had left Northeast Indiana, his factory, United Technologies Electronic Controls, or UTEC, was still taking back contracts from China and winning president’s awards for performance. It was the area’s largest employer and also a rare place where America’s fraying social contract had remained mostly intact: Employees helped the factory’s parent corporation earn more than $6 billion in annual profit. In return they got a decent hourly salary with good overtime, bonuses for completing work-training programs, a turkey to take home on Thanksgiving and a ham on Christmas. “Successful businesses improve the human condition,” read one sign posted on the factory wall.

     

    But on that night in February, another announcement had come over the factory speakers, instructing all UTEC employees to report to the cafeteria. The factory manager was standing at the front of the room, holding a piece of paper and reading into a microphone.

     

    “A difficult decision,” he said.

     

    “Relocation is best,” he said.

     

    “Northern Mexico,” he said.

     

    “No questions,” he said, and then he told employees they would have an hour-long break in the cafeteria to process the news before returning to their lines.

     

    Together between his overtime and Bowers’s small salary at another manufacturer in Fort Wayne, they had remained firmly in the middle class by finding ways to make their money stretch. When they wanted to drive to Florida for their first overnight vacation in a decade, Setser could volunteer for more overtime to save up the cash. When they wanted a new TV, he could spend the 10 percent premium he earned for working third shift. He had cashed out part of his 401(k) account to pay for his daughter’s braces, purchased some of their basic household items with credit cards and taken out a no-money-down loan on their $95,000 house.

     

    He had made the drive enough times to already suspect what he might find. Stride Rite had left Huntington for Mexico at the tail end of the recession; Breyers Ice Cream had closed its doors after 100 years. In the weeks after each factory closing in his part of Indiana, Lewandowski had listened to politicians make promises about jobs — high-tech jobs, right-to-work jobs, clean-energy jobs — but instead Indiana had lost 60,000 middle-class jobs in the past decade and replaced them with a surge of low-paying work in health care, hospitality and fast food. Wages of male high school graduates had dropped 19 percent in the past two decades, and the wealth divide between the middle class and the upper class had quadrupled.

     

    “These jobs aren’t the solution so much as they’re part of the problem,” Lewandowski said, and now the result of so much churn was becoming evident all across Indiana and lately in Huntington, too. Fast-food consumption was beginning to tick up. Poverty was up. Foreclosures were up. Meth usage up. Heroin up. Death rate up. In Dan Quayle’s Middle America, one of the biggest news stories of the year had been the case of a mother who had let her three-week-old child suck heroin off her finger.

     

    “Despair is our business, and business is booming,” Lewandowski said. “Workers have lost all agency in their lives. They’ve based their lives on believing in something that turned out to be a lie. They work when they can, for what they can, for as long as they can until it ends.”

     

    As second shift finished in Huntington, several of those UTEC workers gathered at an Applebee’s that displayed construction hats on the wall. Earlier in the day, an employee had been suspended for taping a “Run for the Border” bumper sticker to one of the company’s roving robots — the biggest act of rebellion yet. A few employees had been trying to popularize a boycott of United Technologies products, and others had started using their regular ­10-minute breaks to campaign for Trump in a traditionally Democratic factory. But for the most part their work was continuing unchanged, with attendance steady and factory production on the rise. They couldn’t risk losing their jobs or their UTEC severance packages, so the only way to vent was to come here, where the discussion on this night was of a country in decline.

     

    “This is how it feels to be sold out by your country.”“It’s pure greed.”

     

    “They wanted to add another 6 feet to their yachts.”

     

    “We’re becoming like a third-world country. We’re going to have nothing left but fast food.”

     

    “Fast food and hedge funds. That’s where we’re going.”

     

    “We’re getting to the point where there aren’t really any good options left,” he said. “The system is broken. Maybe its time to blow it up and start from scratch, like Trump’s been saying.”

     

    Krystal rolled her eyes at him. “Come on. You’re a Democrat.”

     

    “I was. But that was before we started turning into a weak country,” he said. “Pretty soon there won’t be anything left. We’ll all be flipping burgers.”

     

    “Fine, but so what?” she said. “We just turn everything over to the guy who yells the loudest?”

     

    “You said it always evens out,” she told him.

     

    “Maybe I was wrong,” he said, but now his voice was quiet.

     

    “You said things just have a way of working.”

     

    “Maybe not,” he said, because with each passing day he was seeing it more clearly. The town was losing its best employer, and all around him stability was giving way to uncertainty, to resentment, to anger, to fear.

    Haunting and heartbreaking. What’s worse, it’s not just in the manufacturing heartland where the middle class is getting pummeled. In fact, the middle class is getting squeezed so badly, many cities now see a need to roll out public housing projects targeting this formerly independent and relatively prosperous demographic.

    Although I previously reported on this as it pertained to the extremely affluent city of Palo Alto in the post, The New “Middle Class” – Making $250,000 a Year in Palo Alto Qualifies for Housing Subsidies, it appears this may be more of a trend than an anomaly.

    As the Wall Street Journal reports in the piece, Rising U.S. Rents Squeeze the Middle Class:

    Rising rents in cities across the nation are hurting the poorest residents, but those who are higher on the income ladder might be bearing the brunt of the pain.

     

    A  study set to be released on Monday shows that a far bigger proportion of middle-class renters in New York were squeezed by rising rents than were the lowest-income renters.

     

    The study by New York University’s Furman Center examined rapidly gentrifying neighborhoods such as Brooklyn’s Williamsburg section and Harlem, where rents jumped 80% and 53%, respectively, between 1990 and 2014. While the share of the poorest families struggling to afford rent in those sections increased by 7.6 percentage points from 2000 to 2014, the share of middle-income households struggling to afford rent jumped 18 percentage points.

     

    In Boston, median asking rents have increased at an annual rate of 13.2% since 2010, far outstripping the 2.4% average annual increase in income. Mayor Marty Walsh has pledged to build 20,000 units of middle-income housing through a mix of initiatives such as rezoning neighborhoods further from the city center and offering tax breaks to developers who build more moderately priced housing.

     

    “We really do spend the vast majority of our resources on low-income families but we know we need to serve the middle income,” said Sheila Dillon, Boston’s chief of housing.

     

    Even in Atlanta, historically one of the most affordable cities for middle-class families, a rapid rise in rents has taken its toll on those families. The city last week passed a new ordinance requiring developers who receive tax breaks to set aside a portion of units aimed at lower-income earners. It is also considering requiring developers to include units targeted at slightly more affluent families, such as teachers and police officers.

     

    New York City has pledged to build or preserve 44,000 units for middle-income families over the next decade. Low-income households “have been straining to pay their rents in these neighborhoods for years, and, as rents continue to rise, households in higher-income tiers are having the same experience,” said a spokeswoman for New York City’s Housing Preservation and Development Department.

    I don’t know about you, but this isn’t the kind of country I want to live in.

  • Sworn Depositions Of Close Clinton Aides Begin This Week

    The FBI’s probe into Clinton’s use of a private server isn’t the only noose that is keeping Clinton (and the State Department) up at night: this week interviews begin in a separate Judicial Watch civil suit, previously profiled here, against key State Department figures, all of whom just happen to be close co-workers of Hillary.

    Accordng to Time, two close Clinton aides, Huma Abedin and Cheryl Mills, will testify under oath this month and next, Judicial Watch announced today. The judge in the case said earlier this month he may force Clinton herself to testify after the first round of interviews is completed. That has set up the prospect of the Democratic front-runner for the White House facing off under oath against one of her most dogged pursuers as early as July, just months before the November election.

    It is telling that Judicial Watch’s potentially big win has come not from any dark conspiracy it has uncovered, but from what it has not. The judge has limited the group to a narrow line of inquiry designed to answer a simple question: why did Clinton set up a private server and use it for all her work e-mails as Secretary of State? Clinton says it was matter of convenience, but over the course of the trial, the judge has given credence to the allegation that she was intentionally thwarting the federal laws ensuring government transparency.

     

    And that’s why the messy, drawn out drama over case No. F-2013-08812 matters. Clinton is no stranger to allegations that amount to nothing. From Whitewater to Benghazi her political opponents have tried and failed to find evidence that she committed a crime. A law enforcement official familiar with the separate FBI investigation into how classified information got onto her private server says there is little evidence of a crime there either, though the probe is continuing.

     

    But Clinton may have violated civil law if she intentionally thwarted FOIA or the Federal Records Act, which requires public officials to take a number of steps to preserve and make public their work related documents, according to experts and judges handling the matter in the courts. Which means that for many voters it will be Clinton’s trustworthiness that is on trial in the FOIA case.

    According to the Wall Street Journal, depositions will also be given under oath by Lewis Lukens, a former deputy assistant secretary of state, and Bryan Pagliano, the IT staffer who set up Clinton’s private server. The interviews are set to begin this week. Pagliano refused to testify in front of Congress last year citing his fith amendment, but has since been offered immunity by the Justice Department in a twist that some say could be the critical break in any objective probe into Hillary’s activities. As a reminder, Huma Abedin has already testified in the FBI’s investigation into Clinton’s use of a private server.

    As is currently the case with the FBI investigation, whether Clinton herself will be forced to testify in the civil suit is unclear.

    Between the FBI investigation, and the civil suit, if Clinton comes away from everything unscathed then it’s time to reassign the nickname “Teflon Don” from John Gotti to Hillary.

    Or not. With support from friends in high places, there is a very good chance that we’ll be seeing Clinton all smiles on a debate stage this fall with not a care in the world about this entire issue. The market agrees: when asked “Will a federal criminal charge be filed against Hillary Clinton in 2016?”, the answer provided by PredictIt bettors is trivial: 24%.

  • Obama's Cuban Ambitions As Seen By Cubans Themselves

    Submitted by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

    For half a century, Americans have been largely unable to visit Cuba and have had to rely on the US government and media for an understanding of the political, social and economic conditions there. What has been described as the “American Berlin Wall” has been successful in providing Americans with quite an inaccurate view.

    Throughout this period, those Cubans who exited the island in 1959 (and their descendants) have maintained a propaganda programme that, rightly or wrongly, reflected their desire to return to Cuba and to once again rule it. Additionally, they’ve contributed regularly to both the primary US political parties in order to assure that the blockade would be maintained and that Americans would be kept out until such time as the island could be re-taken.

    This is not to say that all is rosy in Cuba. For the past 25 years or more, I’ve periodically spent time there, observing its developments, beginning with its attempt to recover from the loss of its principle trading partner, the Soviet Union, in the early 1990s. It’s been a rocky road, as Cuba has sought to become an international tourist destination whilst attempting to maintain a closed, communist society. Results have been mixed, to say the least.

    Still, the US government embargo remains in place and Americans have little real understanding of Cuba, or how the Cuban people view the US. All Americans can rely on is the “official view”—reports fed to the US media by their government, which, in turn, are influenced by Miami-based Cubans.

    Recently, Barrack Obama visited Cuba, gave speeches and even walked the streets of Havana, “meeting the people”. Americans have now had time to digest the official US view of that visit, yet, understandably, have no idea whatsoever as to the Cuban view.

    If I could sum up the Cuban people’s perception, based upon discussions with Cubans in Havana after the visit, I’d say that the best word to describe their reaction would be “wary”. Cubans are only too aware that Americans have, for half a century, received a highly one-sided view of anything Cuban and, for the most part, tend to agree with their leaders that any dealings with the US government should be cautious.

    As in any country, there are varied viewpoints and, to be sure, the Cubans who oppose the existing regime to the point that they’ve stolen a boat and braved the seas to escape Cuba, would have a far different view from those who are glad to remain in Cuba.

    A particular concern that they tend to voice is that Americans leaders are arrogant, seeming to believe that they have all the answers for every country and seem to perceive themselves as magnanimous, in offering to unilaterally change other countries “for the better”. In the present instance, they resent Mister Obama stating in a Havana speech that his country is considering diminishing its economic punishment of Cuba, but that, first, he would need to be assured that the Cuban political structure be altered to reflect the American model more closely. As stated by President Raul Castro in the Havana Reporter, “he should not expect the Cuban people to give up their destiny…for which they have made huge sacrifices.”

    A continuing sore in the side of Cuba is the occupation of Guantanamo Bay. Cubans, when confronted with their government’s admitted incarceration of some citizens for political reasons, may respond by reminding Americans that Cubans regard Guantanamo as “the horrible torture center”, housing the US government’s political prisoners. They are bolstered in their view by American presidential candidates who vehemently support the continued violation of the Geneva Convention at Guantanamo. (Most Cubans have television and there’s no restriction on American broadcasts. Cubans therefore know far more about the US than Americans know about Cuba.)

    Again, quoting the Havana Reporter, “The Cuban authorities request for the illegally occupied military territory to be returned, although spokespeople for Obama’s administration say that the subject is not on the agenda for discussion.”

    Again, the American presidential message, as seen from the Cuban perspective, appears to be, “We’ll decide what we will or won’t do for you, and we’ll decide what you’ll do for us.”

    And the discussion is not an isolated one. For many years, the UN has regularly held votes on the legality and morality of the blockade and, in each case, all members except the US and Israel vote for its elimination. Just prior to Mister Obama’s Cuban visit, Federica Mogherini, Vice President of the European Commission, reiterated the UN request for the “rejection of the economic, commercial and financial blockade imposed on Cuba by the US”, which she described as both outdated and illegal.

    In his book, “Obama and the Empire”, Fidel Castro comments, “You state…that your country…would not tolerate any intervention in the hemisphere, reiterating that this right must be respected, while demanding the right to intervene anywhere in the world with the aid of hundreds of military bases and naval, air and space forces distributed across the planet. I ask: Is that the way in which the United States expresses its respect for freedom, democracy and human rights?”

    To be sure, Mister Castro has his own agenda, as do all political leaders, yet his point is well-taken. In spite of US pressure, he has outlasted ten US presidents since 1959. Cuba boasts universal literacy and the lowest rate of violent crime in the hemisphere, whereas, in the US, the percentage of those who are functionally illiterate varies between 15% and 35% (depending on the definition of illiteracy). The US also has both the highest number of prison inmates and the highest percentage of inmates per capita.

    Whether the US or Cuba has the greater claim to the moral high ground is therefore very much an individual assessment.

    But, what’s the view on the street in Havana? What’s the reaction of the average Cuban to the Obama visit? Well, for a start, people in the street, who are accustomed to seeing their leaders with a minimal entourage and few armed guards, were surprised to see a virtual army of suited protectors, making Mister Obama’s stroll through Havana anything but casual.

    Of course, this has become the norm for any American leader, but what message does this convey, when the visitor displays such a show of force?

    In spite of this; however, a young waiter at a bistro in the popular Empedrado Callejón del Chorro commented that, whilst he doubted the sincerity of the visit, anything that brings the two countries closer together can only be an improvement. And, to be sure, younger Cubans are more likely than the previous generations to acknowledge that the inevitable passage out of the Castro’s leadership may be overdue, but that a softening of Cuban distrust of the “American imperialists” can only take place if the American government learns to regard Cuba as a sovereign nation, not as a whipping boy.

    And, of course, this is a sentiment that we see worldwide. The more the US positions itself as the world’s policeman, the more it alienates the peoples of other countries. At a time when the US has begun its economic decline, it would do well to soften its approach, yet it is clearly doing the exact opposite. This does not bode well for the US. No one likes a bully. Bullies are typically only tolerated until they weaken. When this occurs, people turn on the bully, whether he is a person, or indeed, a government.

    What we are observing is the decline of a large nation and, soon, the rebirth of a small one. As events unfold, the comparisons between the two will be fascinating to observe.

  • Introducing The USS Zumwalt – The US Navy's New $4.4 Billion Ship

    Dear readers, the U.S Navy would like to introduce to you its most technologically sophisticated destroyer to date: The USS Zumwalt.

     

    The USS Zumwalt (designed by Raytheon) is powered by electricity produced by turbines, has guns that can hit targets over 70 miles away, and has a sharp-angled geometric design that apparently makes the 610 foot long ship 50 times more difficult to detect on radar. It also has a state-of-the-art weapon launcher designed to fire missiles for sea, land, and air attacks. All of this for a taxpayer cost of a mere $4.4 billion.

    During the testing phase for the ship, a lobsterman told the Associated Press that the vessel appeared to be a 50 to 60 foot fishing boat on his radar.

    The ship is set to be formally commissioned in October in Baltimore, and will have a home port of San Diego.

     

    Here is a time-lapse video posted by the Navy showing the ship’s initial launch in 2013

    See, the defense budget needs to be as large as it is in order to build behemoth warships such as this. The good news is that it will only show up as small fishing boat when sent to the Fiery Cross Reef in order to agitate China.

    The only question is how long before this ship also suffers a terminal failure.

    Recall that in December one of the Navy’s newest ships had to be towed more than 40 miles to port after it broke down less than a month after it was commissioned into service. The littoral combat ship USS Milwaukee, which cost a far more modest $360 million, broke down just days after its was put into service.

    For $4.4 billion, the Zumwalt’s failure should be truly breathtaking.

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