May 28

Today’s News 28th May 2023

  • Gingrich: Where Are Woodward And Bernstein When We Need Them
    Gingrich: Where Are Woodward And Bernstein When We Need Them

    Authored by Newt Gingrich via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The conspiracy between a corrupt set of bureaucracies (including the Justice Department, the IRS, and the intelligence community) and an equally corrupt and enabling elite media is astonishing. The Durham Report is just one more confirmation of the devastating level of dishonesty and manipulation which have characterized the last few years.

    The Department of Justice emblem at the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Florida in downtown Miami is pictured on Jan. 25, 2023. (D.A. Varela/Miami Herald via AP)

    Some analysts believe the open corruption can be traced back to Lois Lerner and the IRS scandal, in which she clearly stonewalled conservative organizations from getting tax status. When she was found to be in contempt of Congress, the Obama Justice Department spent two years ignoring the congressional contempt charge and then decided not to prosecute her.

    As Congressman Jim Jordan said at the time, U.S. Attorney Ronald Machen was “us[ing] his power as a political weapon to undermine the rule of law.” Jordan went on “Mr. Machen … unilaterally decided to ignore the will of the House of Representatives. He and the Justice Department have given Lois Lerner cover for her failure to account for her actions at the IRS.”

    The signal had been sent that protecting the left would itself be protected.

    This lesson was reinforced in the cover up about the terrorist attack at Benghazi. The Obama administration was worried that the killing of an American ambassador—despite his consistent appeals to the State Department for more security—would hurt the president’s reelection campaign. So, the administration adopted a strategy of simply lying to the American people.

    This began the week of the attack when the administration did everything it could to avoid responsibility for a terrorist killing of Ambassador Christopher Stevens. In fact, the Obama White House immediately sent former United Nations Ambassador Susan Rice on five network shows to blame an American-made anti-Muslim video for causing the supposed unrest. It was exactly what Ambassador Jeanne Kirkpatrick had warned against in her famous “Blame America First” description of liberals. We now know that the entire story was a falsehood, and no one in Benghazi was motivated by a film they had never seen.

    When then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton testified before Congress, she dismissed the whole question of responsibility for the failure to protect Stevens. She even failed to be honest about his murder famously saying: “With all due respect, the fact is we had four dead Americans. Was it because of a protest or was it because of guys out for a walk one night who decided that they’d go kill some Americans? What difference at this point does it make?”

    The leftists in the national bureaucracies learned a big lesson from Lerner and Clinton. Whatever you need to do to defeat the right or protect the left is OK. You can get away with it. There is no responsibility for your actions if you are protecting the corrupt system.

    That lesson was publicly driven home in late June 2016, when former President Bill Clinton walked uninvited onto the airplane of Attorney General Loretta Lynch at the Phoenix airport. The FBI was investigating the former president’s wife (and Democratic presidential candidate) for a variety of charges including deleting more than 33,000 government emails and having staff destroy computer hard drives with a hammer.

    It is hard to imagine anything more inappropriate than a former president visiting an attorney general while his wife (and presidential candidate) was being actively investigated by the FBI.

    As then-candidate Donald Trump described in a tweet “Take a look at what happened w/ Bill Clinton. The system is totally rigged. Does anybody really believe that meeting was just a coincidence?”

    We now know from the Durham Report—and the reports from Chairman James Comer and the House Oversight Committee—that candidate and then-President Trump has been consistently smeared and defamed by corrupt elements of the Washington bureaucracy on a scale which makes Watergate look trivial.

    At the same time, the corrupt system was working overtime to protect Joe Biden and his family. The stunning dual nature of the corruption makes the present moment so dangerous for the future of the rule of law—and the entire constitutional process which has protected American freedom for more than 200 years.

    As deeply and persuasively corrupt as the bureaucracy has become, the other great decay since Watergate has been the corruption of the elite media.

    The New York Post, Fox News, and a few others have attempted some sense of honest coverage. Smaller conservative publications, podcasts, and social media have called out the big media systems for being active allies of the corrupt bureaucracy. Still, when needed, the elite corporate media have eagerly smeared President Trump and enthusiastically lied to protect the Bidens.

    There are no Bob Woodwards or Carl Bernsteins courageously working to uncover the truth and get it published. (Indeed, Woodward has reinvented himself into a chief Trump smear-monger.)

    There are no courageous editors like Ben Bradley backing up the reporters.

    There are no fearless publishers like Katharine Graham willing to risk lawsuits and withstand the anger of the government.

    Today, there is only a corrupt media protecting a corrupt establishment. The challenge to the American people to get at the truth is far more difficult than it was when Richard Nixon was under attack.

    The establishment rot threatens our survival as a free people, and it is increasingly difficult to uproot. Where are the Woodwards and Bernsteins when we need them most?

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 23:30

  • Counterfeit Drugs Are On The Rise Globally
    Counterfeit Drugs Are On The Rise Globally

    Counterfeit medicines are on the rise, according to data from the Pharmaceutical Security Institute.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the following chart shows, nearly 6,000 pharmaceutical crime incidents were recorded by the nonprofit in 2021, up 38 percent from the year before and the peak figure since their records began 20 years ago.

    Infographic: Counterfeit Drugs on the Rise Globally | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    In terms of the geographical distribution of counterfeit pharmaceutical seizures, the greatest number was recorded in North America (2,442) followed by the Asia Pacific (1,747), Latin America (770), the Near East (705), Eurasia (646), Europe (374) and Africa (187). This order is largely due to how well countries in these regions are effectively identifying pharmaceutical crime through law enforcement activity and inspections by drug regulatory agencies. As the PSI notes, competing law enforcement priorities, lack of funding, or inadequate regulatory structures can mean that counterfeit medicines go undetected.

    According to the World Health Organization, roughly 10 percent of medical products circulating in low- and middle-income countries are substandard or falsified. In sub-Saharan African nations, this share is believed to be even higher, rising closer to 19-50 percent. With this in mind, the actual number of incidents of fake pharmaceuticals being manufactured and distributed is likely far higher than this chart shows, considering the many cases where fake drugs have not been detected or reported.

    One reason cited for the surge in the volume of fake or defective pharmaceuticals is the increase of online pharmacies.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 23:00

  • US Nuclear Secrets At Risk From Insider Threats With Devastating Consequences: Report
    US Nuclear Secrets At Risk From Insider Threats With Devastating Consequences: Report

    Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times,

    U.S. nuclear secrets are at risk from insider attacks, owing to the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) lack of security, according to the Government Accountability Office (GAO).

    Allison Bawden, a GAO director for nuclear security, said the insider risk is illustrated by the 1993 movie “Jurassic Park,” when a disgruntled computer programmer tries to steal from his employer to solve his personal financial troubles.

    “Remember that fictional employee who stole dinosaur embryos from InGen?” wrote Bawden on Twitter on Thursday, while sharing a link to the office’s report and a photo of the fictional programmer.

    “Insider threats aren’t just for dinosaur parks – they’re also a risk for federal agencies,” she added. “For example, what if insiders wanted to steal the nation’s nuclear weapons and information?

    “To avoid being like InGen, DOE could better protect nuclear material & information by fully implementing its insider threat program. This includes training all employees & contractors to identify & report suspicious behavior & better monitoring networks for suspicious activity.”

    Report

    According to the report, the DOE established the insider threat program in 2014 but has not yet implemented “all required measures.”

    “The DOE has not implemented seven required measures for its Insider Threat Program, even after independent reviewers made nearly 50 findings and recommendations to help DOE fully implement its program,” the report says.

    The report warned that the DOE’s failure to fully implement all the measures could lead to “devastating consequences.”

    “The theft of nuclear material and the compromise of information could have devastating consequences,” the report says.

    “Threats can come from external adversaries or from ‘insiders,’ including employees or visitors with trusted access.”

    “Such threats could have significant consequences for national security and could include unauthorized release of classified information; workplace violence; or improper access to sensitive nuclear weapons, material, and components,” the report adds.

    The report pointed out that DOE’s employees, as as well those employed by the agency’s contractors, could be compromised and become insiders.

    “As of 2022, DOE had over 13,000 federal employees, and its management and operating contractors and other contractors employed over 120,000 people, who, because of their authorized access to DOE facilities and networks, can be considered to be insiders,” the report says.

    Incidents

    There were about 250 unclassified insider threat-related security incidents in 2017, the most recent data from DOE, according to the report. The incidents included sending classified information over unclassified systems, leaving security areas unattended, and not properly protecting classified information.

    “DOE considered about 100 of those incidents to be serious,” the report says.

    The report pointed to a 2017 criminal case, when Grigory Trosman was sentenced to 18 months in prison for accepting at least $469,287 in bribes in exchange for official acts he performed while at the DOE.

    “From approximately 2002 through March 2014, Trosman used his official position in various capacities to assist co-conspirators and various companies to obtain access to federal research funding and contract work in Lithuania, Russia, and Ukraine,” the Department of Justice said in a press release.

    A 2022 report by strategic intelligence firm Strider Technologies found that China has hired at least 162 researchers from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) over the last 35 years. Many of these researchers went on to conduct military research for China, including deep-earth penetrating warheads, hypersonic missiles, and submarine programs.

    At least one researcher hired by China previously held Top Secret security clearance at the DOE, according to the report.

    In September 2020, a former LANL scientist was sentenced to probation and fined for lying about his participation in a Chinese state-sponsored recruitment program.

    The report offered DOE seven recommendations for its insider threat program. In a written response included in the report, the DOE said it agreed with all the recommendations and provided plans to address them. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 22:30

  • GOP Lawmakers Demand FBI Briefing On Jan. 6 Pipe-Bomb Probe Following Whistleblower Disclosures Regarding Suspect
    GOP Lawmakers Demand FBI Briefing On Jan. 6 Pipe-Bomb Probe Following Whistleblower Disclosures Regarding Suspect

    Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

    Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee are demanding an FBI briefing on the status of their January 6 Pipe Bomb Investigation following disclosures that the feds have enough information to identify a suspect.

     

    In a letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray, Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Rep. Bill Posey (R-Fla.) said the slow progression of the Bureau’s investigation into the pipe bombs “raises significant concerns about the FBI’s prioritization of that case in relation to other January 6 investigations.”

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    Former FBI agent Kyle Seraphin, a whistleblower who worked on the pipe bomb investigation, told the Washington Times that after planting the bombs, the suspect used a MetroRail SmarTrip card to travel through the Washington metro system to a stop in northern Virginia.

    “The FBI used security footage in the Northern Virginia to identify the license plate of the car that the individual entered,” the congressmen wrote. “Still, the FBI has not identified the subject.”

    The suspect was caught on surveillance video. He wore a sweatshirt with the hood pulled up, a pair of Air Max Speed Turf shoes with a yellow Nike logo, a backpack and gloves. He was recorded walking through Capitol Hill neighborhoods carrying what federal investigators said were two live pipe bombs.

    However, Mr. Seraphin said technicians determined the pipe bombs were inoperable.

    His story runs counter to the FBI’s official version that the devices could have detonated at any time. The bureau repeated that story in January while offering a $500,000 reward for information leading to the suspect’s arrest.

    Seraphin also told Times reporter Kerry Picket that a separate individual bought the Metrorail SmarTrip card one year before the pipe bomber suspect used it on Jan. 5, 2021.

    “The card had never been used before. It was bought a year prior by a retired chief master sergeant in the Air Force, and he was a security contractor. So he held a security clearance,”  Seraphin said.

    Mr. Seraphin and his team surveilled the retired airman, who lived in a Northern Virginia townhouse, for a couple of days and learned about his background.

    Although Mr. Seraphin, who also served in the Air Force, wanted to approach the Air Force veteran and talk to him, his bureau superiors forbade him to do so before his team was removed from the case.

    “I don’t know what they [eventually] did on that case, but I know that it was BS and the bombs were BS, and it seems like they had a good lead, and they could have run it down. But as far as I know, they never did,” he told the Times. “He may still be occasionally surveilled. That’s how dumb it gets.”

    The congressmen cited former FBI assistant director Christopher Swecker, who told Picket, “[i]t just doesn’t add up . . . [t]here’s just too much to work with to not know who this guy is.”

    The committee requested an update on the case in a briefing no later that June 7, 2023.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 22:00

  • Black Americans Embrace Florida
    Black Americans Embrace Florida

    Authored by Jeffrey Anderson via American Greatness,

    Governor Ron DeSantis is standing up for everyday Americans, which helps explain why people of all races are moving to Florida in droves…

    These days headlines read like parodies, which is certainly the case with the NAACP’s recent announcement that it has issued “a formal travel advisory for the state of Florida.” That’s right: The NAACP isn’t particularly worried about black people visiting North Korea, Iran, or inner-city neighborhoods in Chicago. It’s worried about them heading to Florida’s beaches or amusement parks. Why? Because Governor Ron DeSantis has led “unrelenting attacks on fundamental freedoms” such as the freedom to teach critical race theory and other divisive racial and transgender propaganda, in the state’s public schools at taxpayer expense.

    In truth, Florida has led the nation in ensuring Americans’ freedoms, and black Americans have taken notice. During COVID, while 40 states issued mask mandates, DeSantis led the resistance against the public-health cabal and ensured Floridians could live their lives as freedom-loving citizens, rather than as masked subjects. As a result of this and other sensible and freedom-promoting policies, black Americans have not only traveled to Florida but have moved there in large numbers. 

    Indeed, based on statistics from the Florida Department of Health, the number of black people who live in Florida rose 5.5 percent from 2018 (the year DeSantis was first elected as governor) to 2021 (the most recent figures available). That’s even more than the 4.5 percent increase in the state’s white population over that span. And it’s more than three times the 1.6 percent increase in the overall U.S. population across that three-year period. 

    Since DeSantis was elected, roughly a quarter of a million black Americans have freely chosen to move to the Sunshine State.

    The disconnect between the views of most black Americans and the views of the modern-day NAACP could hardly be more pronounced. 

    The NAACP has chosen to ally itself with LGBT activists, decreeing that “Florida is openly hostile toward African Americans, people of color and LGBTQ+ individuals.”

    This “hostility,” the NAACP reports, is evidenced by DeSantis’ opposition to “diversity, equity, and inclusion” (DEI) programs. The Human Rights Campaign, an LGBT advocacy group, issued a parallel travel advisory, claiming that Florida is “hostile” to gay and trans people, while also objecting to Florida’s newly passed pro-life legislation, which protects developing children in the womb against the abortion lobby. 

    Another LGBT group, Equality Florida, suggests Florida’s duly passed laws pose too much of a “risk” for gay travelers to brave the Sunshine State.

    It writes, “Taken in their totality, Florida’s slate of laws and policies targeting basic freedoms and rights pose a serious risk to the health and safety of those traveling to the state.”

    Amazingly, the NAACP accuses DeSantis of trying to “appeal to a dangerous, extremist minority” in opposing critical-race theory (CRT) and DEI programs. In truth, CRT and DEI are pushed by aggressive, well-funded leftist activists who are themselves a dangerous, extremist minority. In opposing their efforts, DeSantis is standing up for everyday Americans. Indeed, he has been a model for doing so, which helps explain why people of all races are moving to Florida in droves.

    Based on statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau, from July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2022, Florida led the nation in net domestic migration (which measures how many people moved to a given state from other states, minus the number who moved the other direction). Over that span, Florida added 563,000 residents in net domestic migration—more than the population of Miami. And it can’t just be the weather. Over that same span, California lost 802,000 residents in net domestic migration—nearly equal to the size of San Francisco. 

    The NAACP also preposterously claims that DeSantis is trying to “erase [b]lack history.” Perhaps the NAACP should limit its travel advisory to Walt Disney World, where a beloved ride based on slave folktales—Splash Mountain—was just canceled in an example of just the sort of wokeness that DeSantis is committed to fighting.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 21:30

  • Debt Ceiling Deal Between White House And GOP Reached In Principle
    Debt Ceiling Deal Between White House And GOP Reached In Principle

    The White House and GOP negotiators have reached an agreement in principle to raise the US debt ceiling, averting a default.

    The deal raises the debt limit and keeps non-defense spending ‘near flat’ for two years, while cutting and capping various federal programs, the NY Times reports. After 2025, however, there will be no budget caps.

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    It was structured with the aim of enticing votes from both parties, though it would most likely draw the ire not only of conservative Republicans but also Democrats furious at being asked to vote for cuts they oppose with the threat of default looming.

    If the progressives or the Freedom Caucus don’t blow it up, the plan has a chance of Congressional passage before June 5, the date Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned any deal must be finalized by in order to avoid hitting the “X-date”, when the Treasury can no longer meet its obligations.

    “After weeks of negotiations, we have come to an agreement in principle,” said House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, adding that there are “historic reductions in spending” and “consequential reforms.”

    “There are no new taxes, no new government programs,” McCarthy continued, adding that they would be spending tonight writing the agreement.

    McCarthy expects a vote on Wednesday.

    In the House, Republicans hold a narrow majority – meaning unhappy right-wing lawmakers who have demanded significantly larger budget cuts in exchange for raising the ceiling may hold it hostage (lookin’ at you Gaetz).

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    That said, McCarthy can at least say he tried – inking in principle a compromise that would effectively freeze federal spending that had been slated to expand. McCarthy and Biden spoke by phone on Saturday to hammer out the final sticking points.

    White House budget director Shalanda Young, senior adviser Steve Ricchetti, and legislative affairs director Louisa Terrell crafted the deal with Representatives Garret Graves, a Louisiana Republican, Patrick McHenry, a North Carolina Republican, and McCarthy’s chief of staff, Dan Meyer. –Bloomberg

    The White House issued a Saturday night statement largely echoing McCarthy’s – noting that the agreement “represents a compromise, which means not everyone gets what they want.”

    Needless to say, Democrats are not happy.

    As we noted yesterday, a deal needed to materialize – and fast, as the Treasury’s cash balance has dwindled dangerously low.

    Putting this “deal” in context, the plan passed by the House GOP would reduce fiscal year ’24 spending by $130bn, or about 0.5% of GDP (setting aside the deficit saving from rescinding student debt forgiveness, which hasn’t been implemented yet and which may be struck down by the high court). At the other end, according to reports which indicate the White House may cap FY24 discretionary nondefense spending at FY23 levels would reduce spending by about 0.1% of GDP relative to a plausible baseline. So, the federal spending reduction for FY24 could range from 0.1% to 0.5% of GDP. The final “compromise” outcome – which may be announced as soon as Friday- will be a 0.2% spending cut.

    *  *  *

    Of course, this episode of can-kicking will be much like the next, and the next, until…

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 20:56

  • Top US General: Ukraine Should Not Use US Equipment To Attack Russia
    Top US General: Ukraine Should Not Use US Equipment To Attack Russia

    Authored by Connor Freeman via AntiWar.com,

    The top US general reaffirmed that Kiev has long been asked not to use military equipment provided by Washington to conduct attacks against Russian territory, according to Reuters. This policy is necessary because such attacks could provoke a direct clash between NATO and Russia, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley emphasized while speaking with reporters at the Pentagon on Thursday.

    Milley’s comments came after a neo-Nazi group, which operates as part of Kiev’s armed forces and cooperates with Ukrainian military intelligence, carried out a cross-border raid in Russia. Denis Nikitin is the leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps, which is said to be made up of Russian citizens including some members of the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion who fought, since 2014, for Kiev during the Donbas war. Nikitin said his men were using US equipment, such as two M1224 MaxxPro armored vehicles, also known as MRAPs, during the raid. Members of another militia, the Freedom of Russia Legion, also participated in the assault.

    Getty Images

    According to Russian officials, the terrorists launched mortar and artillery attacks against civilian infrastructure and residential areas in the Belgorod region on Monday. Ukraine’s military intelligence hints that they were behind the attack, while stopping short of officially taking credit. Though, some documents included in the Discord Leaks suggest that Ukrainian President Zelensky’s regime was planning similar operations, specifically using these Russian volunteers equipped with “various qualitative types of NATO weapons.”

    According to the New York Times, US officials believe Kiev was behind Monday’s raid and the recent attempted drone strike on the Kremlin, which Moscow believes was an attempt to kill Russian President Vladimir Putin. The officials also believe Kiev is responsible for a series of assassinations and other covert attacks within Russia. Moreover, the deputy head of Ukraine’s main intelligence directorate admitted this week that they are actively attempting to assassinate Putin and other Russian officials.

    Kiev’s position is that the Belgorod raid was carried out independently from Zelensky’s intelligence and military services. But the Freedom of Russia Legion’s special representative, Ilya Ponomarev, said the group received Kiev’s “green light” regarding the attack. Pictures and videos posted by the Russian military have confirmed Nikitin’s claims.

    “It is no secret for us that more and more equipment is being delivered to Ukraine’s armed forces,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday when asked by reporters about the militias’ U.S.-made hardware.

    Contrarily, Milley refused to say Washington has drawn any firm conclusions yet. “I can’t say with definitive accuracy right this minute to you whether that – and I saw the same video – whether that’s U.S. supplied equipment or not, what was the nature of the attack, who did what to whom,” Milley insisted.

    He continued, “…but I can say that we have asked the Ukrainians not to use U.S.-supplied equipment for direct attacks into Russia.” For its part, Reuters stated they were “able to confirm the location of damaged [U.S.-made military hardware such as Humvee military trucks] and surrounding details shown in the video, though could not verify the date it was filmed.”

    Kiev has ostensibly pledged not to use long-range weapons provided by Washington to attack Russia, but leaked documents also show that Zelensky does not intend to keep his word. Earlier this month, the Washington Post reported that “behind closed doors, Ukraine’s leader has proposed going in a more audacious direction – occupying Russian villages to gain leverage over Moscow, bombing a pipeline that transfers Russian oil to Hungary, a NATO member, and privately pining for long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia’s borders, according to classified US intelligence documents detailing his internal communications with top aides and military leaders.”

    However, the Joe Biden administration has now greenlit their European allies’ plans to transfer F-16s to Ukraine. Biden proclaims that he has received Zelensky’s “flat assurance” that the fighter jets will not be used to attack Russia.

    Though, Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) told a reporter on Wednesday that he “wouldn’t care if they did,” reflecting the uber hawkishness that has become acceptable within the US Congress. Furnishing Zelensky’s regime with warplanes was long ruled out over fears that it would be perceived by Moscow as the alliance directly entering the war.

    “We see that Western countries are still adhering to the escalation scenario. It involves colossal risks for themselves,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko admonished the alliance after the Western plans to send F-16s to Ukraine became public. When asked about the Russian official’s warning, Biden threatened “it is for them.”

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    Milley explained these restrictions are ostensibly implemented in hopes of avoiding a direct war with Russia. “Why is that? Because we don’t want – this is a Ukrainian war. It is not a war between the United States and Russia. It’s not a war between NATO and Russia,” Milley said.

    The general’s claims fall flat given the fact that, so far, the US has pledged $113 billion backing Kiev in this proxy war. Washington’s Ukraine policy is explicitly designed to “weaken” Russia as Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin made clear last year.

    The White House is shipping Bradley armored fighting vehicles, longer range rockets, Patriot missile systems, and M1 Abrams tanks to the battlefield. Concurrently, the CIA is reportedly conducting sabotage attacks on Russian infrastructure and the Pentagon has tacitly endorsed Kiev’s drone strikes hundreds of miles deep inside the Russian mainland. The UK has armed Zelensky’s regime with depleted uranium munitions, linked to cancer and birth defects, which are being fired at Russian troops by British tanks. Far exceeding the reach of any weapons system the US has pledged, London has equipped Kiev with Storm Shadow missiles with a range of more than 155 miles. The missiles can be fired by the MIG-29 warplanes NATO members Slovenia and Poland sent to Ukraine earlier this year.

    Beyond the Washington-led bloc’s massive military aid, an assortment of NATO commandos, US troops, CIA, and Special Operations forces are on the ground in Ukraine as well.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 20:30

  • State Farm Halts Home Insurance Sales In California
    State Farm Halts Home Insurance Sales In California

    Faltering California took another economic hit on Friday, as America’s largest personal lines insurer said it would immediately stop selling new home insurance policies in the state. California is the largest property and casualty insurance market in the country. 

    State Farm attributed the decision to three factors: “historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure, and a challenging reinsurance market.” Reinsurance is a method of transferring some of an insurer’s risk to other insurers.  

    Existing policies will stay in effect — for now. There’s always the possibility that, if things keep deteriorating, State Farm could decide to “non-renew” current policy-holders. That’s what AIG did last year, sending thousands of high-end homeowners scrambling to find new coverage.  

    The announcement’s timing — on a Friday afternoon heading into a long holiday weekend — seemed intended to minimize publicity. In statement, State Farm said it “will cease accepting new applications including all business and personal lines property and casualty insurance, effective May 27, 2023. This decision does not impact personal auto insurance.” The halt seems to include renters insurance, though the announcement wasn’t explicit on that count.

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    Inflation has been taking a harsh toll on insurers, who are pressing regulators to approve rate hikes to compensate for rising claim costs. Earlier this month, for example, San Antonio-based USAA posted the first ever annual loss in its 100-year history — a $1.3 billion setback.  

    In California, insurers have also been contending with high wildfire risks, and many have curtailed coverage in wildfire-prone regions, or clamped down on homes that lack certain fire-thwarting characteristics, which range from building materials to clearing space between the structure and surrounding trees. 

    State Farm diplomatically acknowledged the California government’s efforts to make the state a viable place for property insurers to operate in, but implied their efforts to date have been insufficient:  

    “We take seriously our responsibility to manage risk. We recognize the Governor’s administration, legislators, and the California Department of Insurance (CDI) for their wildfire loss mitigation efforts. We pledge to work constructively with the CDI and policymakers to help build market capacity in California. However, it’s necessary to take these actions now to improve the company’s financial strength.”

    A Napa home is destroyed by wildfire in October 2017 (Josh Edelson, AFP/Getty Images via USA Today)

    The property insurance situation in the Golden State is spiraling into crisis, and horror stories abound. For example, consider a San Diego County homeowners association (HOA) comprising 187 townhouses. The HOA had been been paying $54,000 for property insurance. After the policy was non-renewed, the HOA ended up with a new carrier charging a $293,000 premium — prompting an emergency assessment from each owner. 

    California already has a notoriously high cost of living, ranking second only to Hawaii in the percentage of homeowners (29.7%) who spend more than 30% of their gross income on housing costs. The departure of the country’s largest home insurance provider won’t do anything to help the insurance component of those costs.  

    There could be follow-on insurance-market effects from State Farm’s departure, as homeowners who would have been insured by State Farm are now forced to seek quotes from companies who are themselves increasingly reluctant to expand their exposure in the state. In a vicious circle effect, some could wind up following State Farm’s example.     

    It all promises to put more pressure on California’s FAIR plan, a state-run scheme to provide coverage to those who can’t obtain protection from private insurers. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 20:00

  • Sex Traffickers Are Victimizing Children All Across The US
    Sex Traffickers Are Victimizing Children All Across The US

    Authored by Jana J. Pruet via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    On any given day—in communities across the nation—thousands of children are being victimized by sex traffickers.

    Officials search for missing children as part of “Operation Not Forgotten” in Georgia in August 2020. (Courtesy of Shane T. McCoy/U.S. Marshals)

    In 2022, the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children (NCMEC) received 31.9 million reports of suspected child sexual exploitation—up from 29.3 million reports in 2021 and 21.7 million in 2020. NCEMC is a national nonprofit founded in 1984 by John and Revé Walsh, whose son Adam, 6, was abducted from a department store in Florida in 1981. The boy was later found murdered.

    Many are unaware that child sex trafficking is a growing problem in the United States, regarding it as an issue occurring in other countries. But the reality is that this problem happens every day—close to home—in big cities, small towns, and rural areas in every state.

    And it could be happening right next door.

    Children at Risk

    Child sex trafficking is the “recruitment, harboring, transportation, provision, obtaining, patronizing, or soliciting of a minor for the purpose of a commercial sex act,” according to federal law.

    “No child is immune to becoming a victim of child sex trafficking, regardless of the child’s race, age, socioeconomic status, or location, and every child involved in this form of commercial sexual exploitation is a victim.”

    The majority of missing child reports involve children who run away from home, putting them at a high risk of falling prey to sex traffickers, Staca Shehan, vice president of analytical services at NCEMC, told The Epoch Times in an interview.

    Last year, there were 359,094 entries for missing children entered into the FBI’s National Crime Information Center (NCIC). In 2021, there were 337,195 total entries. The number of entries represents the number of reports, meaning a child who runs away multiple times in that year could be recorded multiple times.

    In 2022, NCEMC assisted law enforcement, families, and child welfare with 27,644 missing children cases.

    One in six runaways who were reported missing were likely victims of child sex trafficking, according to data collected by the organization.

    “The numbers that we have remained consistent the past few years,” Shehan said. “One in six of the more than 25,000 cases of children reported missing to the national center in 2022, who had run away, were likely victims of child sex trafficking.

    Children living in group homes or those who have been part of the child welfare system are “extremely” susceptible to recruitment by traffickers, Shehan said.

    “Traffickers have been known to find where the local group home is and hang out outside, Shehan said. “[They’re] looking to engage and start conversations and start to recruit kids for victimization through trafficking.”

    Social media, online gaming sites, and other seemingly innocuous websites are frequently used by perpetrators for recruiting.

    “[The child] is playing a video game and meets somebody on that game,” Katia Gonzalez of Alliance for Children in Tarrant County told The Epoch Times. “They’re engaging on that site, and that person asks them to switch to a more dangerous site like Snapchat.”

    Messages on Snapchat disappear after 24 hours, making it difficult to track your child’s activity, Gonzalez explained.

    She said the adult would often say things like, “I really have a great time with you” as a way of building a relationship with the child and gaining their trust.

    Many times, children do not realize that they have been exploited because they trusted the adult who victimized them, Gonzalez said, adding that parents should take notice if their child suddenly has money or things they did not buy for them or they become secretive.

    Other risk factors include youth who have a history of mental health issues, drug use, sexual abuse, low self-esteem, poor academics, and minimal social support, according to the National Center of Safe Supportive Learning Environments (NCSSLE).

    A 15-year-old girl in Arizona went to a high school football game where she “met a friendly 20-year-old woman,” a trafficking researcher wrote on the NCSSLE website. They began chatting, and soon the woman ran across the street to buy the teen girl a cell phone. But the gift came with a catch.

    “The girl would need to repay the newly acquired debt by giving men ‘massages in motel rooms.”

    Many times, human smuggling and sex trafficking go hand in hand, DPS Sgt. Steven Blanco told The Epoch Times, adding that children coming into the U.S. alone are at great risk for child sex trafficking recruiters.

    “Research has shown that there’s a lot of unaccompanied minors coming across the border, and once they are in the United States after being smuggled in, where they go throughout the country is very hard to track,” Blanco said, adding that these youth are vulnerable to recruiters because they are alone and have no money.

    It is difficult to know for certain how many children are being victimized in the U.S.

    “The unfortunate reality is, I don’t know of anyone who has that statistic,” Shehan said. “I don’t know of any organization, [or] anything that has the nationwide total of children being victimized through trafficking. And that’s why we started to track it with the missing child cases to put out at least a trend from what we’re seeing.”

    Shehan said she believes the numbers are “much higher” because there are four forms of child sex trafficking.

    Forms of Child Sex Trafficking

    There are four forms of child sex trafficking, Shehan explained.

    The first form is pimp-controlled trafficking. The trafficker develops an intentional relationship with the child and uses it as leverage for exploitation.

    “We’ve learned from survivors of child sex trafficking that their traffickers would send them home at night or back to their group home,” Shehan said, adding they may have multiple cell phones or apps to provide access to multiple phone numbers making it difficult for law enforcement to track.

    Another type is gang-controlled trafficking, where the child is being recruited, controlled, and sold by a gang member or the organization as a whole as a means of making money, Sheehan explained.

    The third form is familial trafficking. The child attends school and lives in the home with their parents or guardians, but they are being controlled and sold by a family member, or someone the child believes is a relative.

    The last form is buyer-perpetrated trafficking, where the buyer exploits the child’s survival needs.

    “It’s a buyer who’s directly exploiting that child’s vulnerabilities,” Shehan said. “A missing child who runs away doesn’t necessarily have their birth certificate or identification, something they would need to get a job.”

    Without a job, the child has no money for food, shelter, or clothing.

    “So, buyers will take advantage of that and offer to either let them stay with them in exchange for sex” or offer food or money to the child, Shehan continued.

    Blanco said sex trafficking is a problem that requires everyone’s attention and everyone’s action.

    “If you see something, say something. If you’re a victim, or you believe someone is a victim, or you have knowledge of something you believe is suspicious, as far as human trafficking, child exploitation, child abuse or neglect, always reach out to local law enforcement,” Blanco said.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 19:30

  • DeSantis Decks Trump With Accusations Of "Running To The Left"
    DeSantis Decks Trump With Accusations Of “Running To The Left”

    Days after Ron DeSantis (R) announced his bid for president in 2024, the Florida Governor has come out swinging against his Donald Trump – accusing his chief rival of “running to the left” after siding with (woke) Disney vs. Florida.

    “I don’t know what happened to Donald Trump,” DeSantis told WWTN radio in Nashville. “This is a different guy today than when he was running in 2015 and 2016. And I think, I think the direction that he’s going with his campaign is the wrong direction.”

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    More via Bloomberg;

    On spending, DeSantis said Trump shares responsibility for the nation’s $31 trillion in debt. “He added almost $8 trillion in debt in just four years as president,” he said. “I was right on those issues and he wasn’t.”

    On abortion, DeSantis defended Florida’s newly enacted six-week abortion ban against Trump criticism that it was “too harsh” and that DeSantis didn’t know what he was doing. 

    *  *  *

    On immigration, DeSantis accused Trump of supporting amnesty for undocumented immigrants as part of a 2018 immigration bill. “To hit me for taking the America First position I think is pretty strange,” DeSantis said. 

    The Trump campaign responded that as a congressman, DeSantis voted for a bill that gave legal status to some undocumented minors as part of a package of tougher immigration restrictions, before opposing a similar plan. 

    DeSantis also spoke with the Daily Wire‘s Ben Shapiro, slamming Trump on his approach to crime.

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    Trump has been taking shots at DeSantis for months – including this video making fun of DeSantis’ glitchy 2024 announcement on Twitter spaces (which received way more attention due to said glitches than it would have otherwise).

    “What a mess it is,” Trump said on Thursday regarding the Disney dispute. “He could have worked out an easy settlement, but no — he wanted to show the fake news how tough a guy he is. He’s not.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsDeSantis has gained ground on Trump since late April despite the former president maintaining a clear lead.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 19:00

  • Lindsay Graham Meets With Zelensky – Says Ukraine War 'Best Money We've Ever Spent'
    Lindsay Graham Meets With Zelensky – Says Ukraine War ‘Best Money We’ve Ever Spent’

    Lindsay Graham, a remnant of the Bush era Neocon fold, has been a busy bee in the past year.  He has visited Ukraine at least three times since the war with Russia began, called for the assassination of Vladimir Putin, called for the US to directly attack Russian planes, and he’s even demanded that the US put troops on the ground in Taiwan to fight the Chinese.  It just goes to show that there are certainly a number of politicians that identify as GOP Republicans that do not represent the will of most conservatives and moderates.

    Graham’s latest visit with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky has been broadly publicized.  Andriy Yermak, the head of the president’s office, released footage of the meeting, intercut with dramatic piano music for effect:

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    The notion of “bi-partisan support” is broached with Graham applauding, saying that US efforts in Ukraine are “The best money we’ve ever spent.”  Congress approved over $113 billion in funds to Ukraine in 2022 alone, and around 60% of that was directed into Ukraine’s military.   

    Zelensky once again asked for long range weapons and air defense systems at the meeting, which might indicate that Russian missile and drone bombardment has been more effective than the Ukrainians have been admitting.  The recent destruction of a Patriot missile battery in Kiev suggests that current air defenses are not adequate to counter Russian hypersonic weapons. 

    Though full transcripts of the discussion are not available, there was also some coverage of the Wagner Group. According to Prosecutor General of Ukraine Andriy Kostin, topics included “continued joint efforts to counter the criminal activities of the Wagner Group in Ukraine and beyond…”  Even after the Wagner Group successfully defeated NATO trained Ukraine forces in Bakhmut, Lindsay Graham suggests that “the Russians are done.”

    This kind of premature celebration does make one wonder if NATO is giving Ukraine false hope in their chances of gaining back any territory in the Donbas, let alone Crimea, given their long hinted “counter-offensive” has still not materialized.  And Graham’s suggestion of bi-partisan US support is curious given polls show support from both sides of the political spectrum is waning.      

    American zeal for aid to Ukraine was never as widespread as the media made it seem, and there are no streets in the US with Ukrainian flags flying high as Joe Biden once claimed.  However, among Democrats there has been a larger margin of blind enthusiasm for the war effort.  This is changing. 

    Polling now shows that even on the political left there has been a marked decline in support, with the idea of any US military involvement becoming highly unpopular.  After almost 20 years of fighting in a host of countries including Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria under the direction of people like George Bush, Lindsay Graham and Barack Obama, Americans are growing rather tired of the war hawks.  

    In the case of Ukraine, the political dynamic seems to have flipped, with Democrats now becoming the war party while conservatives largely oppose involvement.  Meetings like the one featured from Lindsay Graham may be designed to draw out the war by encouraging empty bravado, when diplomacy and an ending to the conflict should be the goal.  But where does it end?  If Graham has his way, the inevitable result would be WWIII.    

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 18:55

  • Doug Casey On The Death Of Privacy… And What Comes Next
    Doug Casey On The Death Of Privacy… And What Comes Next

    Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

    International Man: In practically every country, the allowable limit for cash withdrawals and transactions continues to be lowered.

    Further, rampant currency debasement is lowering the real value of these ridiculous limits.

    Why are governments so intent on phasing out cash? What is really behind this coordinated effort?

    Doug Casey: Let me draw your attention to three truths that my friend Nick Giambruno has pointed out about money in bank accounts.

    #1. The money isn’t really yours. You’re just another unsecured creditor if the bank goes bust.

    #2. The money isn’t actually there. It’s been lent out to borrowers who are illiquid or insolvent.

    #3. The money isn’t really money. It’s credit created out of thin air.

    The point is that cash is freedom. And when the State limits the utility of cash—physical dollars that don’t leave an electronic trail—they are limiting your personal freedom to act and compromising your privacy.

    Governments are naturally opposed to personal freedom and personal privacy because those things limit their control, and governments are all about control.

    International Man: Governments will probably mandate Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as the “solution” when the next real or contrived crisis hits—which is likely not far off.

    What’s your take? What are the implications for financial privacy?

    Doug Casey: CBDCs are proposed as a solution, but in fact, they’re a gigantic problem.

    Government is not your friend, and CBDCs are not a solution.

    If they successfully implement CBDCs, it would mean that anything you buy or sell, and any income you earn, will go through CBDCs. You will have zero effective privacy. The Authorities will automatically know what you own, and they’ll be in a position to control your assets. Instantly.

    They’ll be able to add CBDCs to the accounts of favored people and subtract from or block access to the accounts of those who aren’t. Digital dollars will be easy to implement since everybody already has a government ID and a Social Security account. Everybody has a smartphone. Soon everybody will have a CBDC account as well. If you lack any of these things, it will certainly ding your oncoming Social Credit Score.

    I’ll go so far as to say that Central Bank Digital Currencies and digital “health passports” may be the most dangerous threats to the freedom and independence of the average human being in modern history. They will allow the State to easily control where you can go, what you can do, and what you can own. They’re both very big deals, and they’ll be daily facts of life.

    In today’s world, it’s increasingly dangerous to say things that run counter to what’s considered politically correct. If you can’t say something, it’s much harder to do something. And indoctrination through education and the media are making it hard to even think. We will soon be living in a society where you can neither think, say, nor do anything that isn’t PC. Again, the problem is promoted as a solution.

    It’s much like what happened during the great COVID hysteria, which was a relatively minor problem from a medical point of view. The State solution was mass lockdowns and mass vaccination. The solutions were much worse than the problem.

    In any event, free speech is dying with cancel culture, trigger warnings, safe spaces, and penalties for so-called hate speech. Free speech should be an absolute—including so-called hate speech.

    I’d like to reemphasize that although “hate speech” is typically impolite, unpleasant, and acrimonious, it is, perhaps paradoxically, a good thing. Why? Because it allows you to identify what’s going on in the mind of the person who utters it. And I would much rather know what somebody’s thinking and what somebody’s likely to do than have a tight lid put on so-called hate speech. I prefer knowing who I’m dealing with and what they think and feel.

    International Man: It’s not just financial privacy but privacy across the board that is being buried.

    Cellphones, so-called “smart” appliances, electric vehicles, social media, and other electronic devices create an all-encompassing surveillance system that most people voluntarily opt into.

    What is really going on here?

    Doug Casey: It’s been said that while art imitates life, life also imitates art. Especially when we look at George Orwell’s famous novel, 1984. In the book, Big Brother had ubiquitous video screens monitoring what the plebs did. We now have hundreds of millions of cameras all around the world—not counting billions more in smartphones. Universal surveillance is making for very grim times.

    Recently, Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum said that everything will be “transparent”—a euphemism for darker things. But don’t worry: you have nothing to fear, he said, if you do nothing wrong. That’s ridiculous. It’s exactly what the Stasi, the KGB, and the Gestapo said.

    I wonder if Schwab would be willing to have a camera observe him in his bathroom and bedroom, when he visits his safe deposit box and has a private conversation with friends—or fellow conspirators? Of course not. Transparency is only for the potentially dangerous plebs, who may not share the views of their betters.

    One of the differences between a civilized society and a primitive, barbaric society, is privacy. In primitive societies, privacy doesn’t exist. You have paper-thin walls in your hut. Everybody sees everything you do and everybody you talk to.

    One of the nice things about civilization is that you can get away from other people and keep them from observing you. Privacy is one of the central elements of civilization itself.

    Eliminating privacy, whether it be personal or financial, is not only an aggression against individuals but destructive of civilization itself. Schwab’s “transparency” is a regression towards barbarism.

    International Man: It seems privacy is dead for most people.

    If that is the case, what comes next? Where is this trend headed?

    Doug Casey: The first time that it became apparent to me on a personal level was at a police station in D.C., where I was paying a fine for some traffic violation. I got to chatting with the cop in back of the computer screen. This was a long time ago, in the late 70’s.

    And as we talked, he said, in a friendly way, “Look, you don’t have any idea how much information we have on you—but it’s a lot.”

    He wasn’t trying to intimidate me; he was just observing a fact. And that was a long time ago.

    About 25 years ago, Larry Ellison, the head of Oracle Corporation, came out and made a shocking statement to the effect of “Privacy doesn’t exist, forget about it.” At the time, I thought it sounded like Ellison approved of it, but now I don’t think that was the case. He was just pointing out a reality.

    Most recently, Arnold Schwarzenegger made an ad during the COVID hysteria. He said, “To hell with your freedom,” encouraging people to stop protesting about getting their shots.

    Children no longer say, “Hey, it’s a free country,” when one says or does something that another doesn’t like.

    People have been programmed not to take privacy seriously. Worse, they’re now suspicious of it and passively accept the fact that it doesn’t exist.

    With China’s Social Credit System, everything you do, everywhere you go, and even everything you say is recorded and reported. We’re going to get our own version. You’ll be rewarded or punished according to what the ruling elite think is good or bad.

    So the question is: when, if ever, will this trend turn around? Well, I’m not sure it’s any longer a question of “when.” It’s more a question of “if”—at least within a reasonable time frame. The trend is not only still in motion but accelerating. A lack of privacy means a lack of freedom. And a lack of freedom is what characterizes a serf—although in today’s world, you’re a serf with a high standard of living.

    International Man: How can the average person protect their privacy and limit their exposure to State and corporate surveillance?

    Doug Casey: Limit airing your personal thoughts and actions on Facebook, LinkedIn, and similar types of social media. It’s all accessible to anybody and makes it much easier for the State to control you.

    In my case, I’ve made part of my living by doing the opposite of what you should do. I understand it’s a contradiction. It’s the path that I’ve chosen. But from a personal freedom point of view, it’s not a wise path. I’m reluctant to say so, but I’d advise others not to choose it. It amounts to painting a target on your back.

    At this point, if you want to maximize your personal freedom, you ought to consider living in a country where you’re not a citizen. That’s because governments consider citizens to be their subjects, their assets, their property. However, when you’re a foreign citizen living in a foreign country, the local government tends to consider you a non-threat, almost a non-person. Sad to say, in today’s world, from a personal freedom point of view, you’re better off not living in your own country. That certainly includes the US and Canada.

    From a financial point of view, it’s very important that you own and hold physical gold and silver, physically in your own possession, as opposed to electronically. Paper or electronic accounts are fine for speculating. But you want to have a considerable cache of the physical metals for safety. Plus, at some point, they will revert to day-to-day money.

    Lastly, put a layer of protection between you and the bad guys. Don’t be afraid to use corporations and trusts in the right jurisdictions. Create barriers to make it harder for the bad guys to find out who owns something and where that person really is.

    *  *  *

    The political and economic climate is constantly changing… and not always for the better. Obtaining the political diversification benefits of a second passport is crucial to ensuring you won’t fall victim to a desperate government. That’s why Doug Casey and his team just released a new complementary report, “The Easiest Way to a Second Passport.” It contains all the details about one of the easiest countries to obtain a second passport from. Click here to download it now.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 18:30

  • Taliban Attacks Iran Border Post – Multiple Troops Dead & Wounded
    Taliban Attacks Iran Border Post – Multiple Troops Dead & Wounded

    Heavy gunfire between Taliban militants and the Iranian military broke out at a shared border on Saturday, resulting in the deaths of at least two Iranian border guards and more wounded.

    The flare-up between Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran comes amid a fierce dispute over water rights, specifically concerning access of drought-stricken Iran to the Helmand River.

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    Each side accused the other of opening fire first, with IRNA claiming that the Iranian side inflicted “heavy casualties and serious damage” on the Taliban side, but numbers of Afghan casualties have remained unclear.

    Later in the day Saturday the situation was described as being under control, with Tehran officials warning against further incursions.

    “The border forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will decisively respond to any border trespassing and aggression, and the current authorities of Afghanistan must be held accountable for their unmeasured and contrary actions to international principles,” Iran’s police chief, Gen. Ahmadreza Radan, was quoted as saying in state media.

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    And in return the Taliban said, “The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan considers dialogue to be a reasonable way for any problem,” according Afghan Defense Ministry spokesman Enayatullah Khawarazmi.

    He added: “Making excuses for war and negative actions is not in the interest of any of the parties.” There’s been a running disagreement over water rights in the tense border region.

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    Ever since the United States’ August 2021 rapid Afghan pullout fiasco, with the Taliban taking firm control and inheriting billions worth of weapons and vehicles in the process, there’s been concern voiced by other countries in the region over border security.

    Afghanistan and Iran in particularly have been historic rivals, given both practice hardline versions of Islam, but one Sunni and the other Shia. 

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    Each side also has a sizeable ‘minority population’ of the other’s religious tradition living within their respective borders, leading to tensions especially within these communities in the border areas.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 18:00

  • China Rebuffing All Contact With US Military: Pentagon
    China Rebuffing All Contact With US Military: Pentagon

    Top Pentagon officials have once again said that China is ignoring and rebuffing the US military’s attempts to establish and open line of communication, which is crucial to avoiding inadvertent conflict in regions such as in the South China Sea where both naval powers operate. 

    “Open communication channels between the US and China are important in maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Affairs Ely Ratner said on Thursday,” regional media reports.

    “The Pentagon’s attempts to reach out to China’s military in recent months have been ignored or rebuffed,” Ratner told an audience at the DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

    Via AP

    He sought to stress that the Pentagon “believes in the importance of open lines of communication with the PRC [People’s Republic of China] and we have sought to build out those open lines of communication. Unfortunately… we’ve had a lot of difficulty when we have proposed phone calls, meetings, dialogues.”

    “The US and Department of Defense have had an outstretched hand on this question of military to military engagement, but we have yet to have consistently willing partners,” Ratner emphasized further.

    Earlier this month there was hope that US-China dialogue would be back on track following the meeting between National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Chinese Communist Party Politburo Member and China’s Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission Wang Yi in Vienna on May 10-11.

    That meeting was generally reported and regarded as positive, given that before that all such high level diplomatic contacts had been off ever since the ‘spy balloon’ shootdown incident over the American east coast in early February.

    But even if the rival militaries are struggling to keep open communications, Washington and Beijing are pushing forward with trade talks:

    U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo sat down with her Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao in Washington D.C. on Thursday to discuss “concerns” surrounding bilateral trade.

    Marking the first cabinet-level exchange between the two countries in months, the U.S. talked about American companies operating in China.

    According to a readout by the Commerce Department, “The two had candid and substantive discussions on issues relating to the U.S.-China commercial relationship, including the overall environment in both countries for trade and investment and areas for potential cooperation.”

    Raimondo further “raised concerns about the recent spate of PRC [People’s Republic of China] actions taken against U.S. companies operating in the PRC,” the statement indicated.

    Looming large in the background is the Biden administration’s continuing policy of “arming Taiwan to the teeth” – even if the process of seeing specific weapons deals through has slowed based on bureaucratic red tape, according to complaints from Congress members.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 17:00

  • Christian Students Sue Professor, Claim She Forced Them To Pay $99 To Fund Left-Wing Activism
    Christian Students Sue Professor, Claim She Forced Them To Pay $99 To Fund Left-Wing Activism

    Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Two Christian students at Michigan State University are suing a former professor, alleging that she forced them and hundreds of other students to pay a $99 membership fee to her own left-wing activist group as part of the course requirements.

    An entrance to Michigan State University located in East Lansing, Michigan. (Shutterstock)

    In a complaint (pdf) filed last week in a federal court in Grand Rapids, Michigan, second-year business students Nathan Barbieri and Nolan Randomski said they enrolled in a required business communication course taught by Amy Wisner this spring.

    Wisner, who described herself as “a single mom by choice, speaker, author, rebel professor, and social justice warrior” on a mission to “cancel the Patriarchy,” required that each of her roughly 600 students pay $99 to sign up for an online group called “The Rebellion Community.”

    “This is a global social learning community with a private space dedicated to this course,” a syllabus of the course read. “You will engage with live and recorded content and connect with peers, alumni, and others for dialogue about important business issues.”

    “Your membership fees are used to (1) pay for use of the technology and (2) pay guest speakers, educators, and facilitators,” it added. “Your professor does not receive any financial compensation from your membership fees as that would be a conflict of interest.”

    However, according to Barbieri and Randomski, Wisner could have just uploaded the course material to the university’s online platform, “Desire to Learn,” which provides all services related to the class and allows all students to use it without having to pay an extra fee.

    The two students, represented by conservative legal group Alliance Defending Freedom, also said they soon discovered that Wisner was the creator and controller of The Rebellion Community and its website and that she had said in different contexts that the money would be used to support left-wing causes, including abortion provider Planned Parenthood.

    “The Rebellion community is a safe place to coordinate our efforts to burn everything to the [explicit] ground. 100 percent of membership fees are donated to Planned Parenthood,” the professor wrote in a Facebook post.

    The suing students also claimed they have reason to believe that Wisner used the subscription money collected from students to fund “The Rebellion RV,” a left-wing activist project she described as “an RV roadtrip [sic] around the United States to cocreate communities of rebels committed to doing the work” and “igniting action at the local level.”

    On May 1, Wisner posted a video to Instagram showing an RV with the caption “Let the games begin!” The students claimed that this vehicle was bought with the money her students were made to pay to The Rebellion Community.

    Barbieri and Randomski, who identify as Christians opposing abortion and the left-wing interpretation of concepts like “rebellion,” accused Wisner and two other university administrators of violating their First Amendment rights by compelling them to fund political causes that contradict their views.

    “They do not wish to financially support the speech of others that contradicts their views, and they do not wish to become members of groups organized for the purpose of promoting messages that contradict their views,” the complaint stated.

    Following student complaints, Michigan State University placed Wisner on leave and assigned another professor to teach the class for the remainder of the semester, according to a March 1 email to students.

    The university also offered a refund—roughly $60,000 in total—to students who paid for their Rebellion Community membership because the platform was “no longer required for the course.”

    Barbieri and Radomski, however, said the refund came from the university and that Wisner still has the money. They want her to refund her students herself and provide a full accounting of how their membership fees were used.

    “A $99 credit to the students’ University account does nothing to erase the constitutional harm that already occurred, nor to stop Ms. Wisner from continuing to use the money she unlawfully extracted from Plaintiffs to support her own advocacy and the advocacy of organizations that Plaintiffs oppose,” the complaint reads.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 16:30

  • Citywide Youth Curfew Begins In Baltimore As Mayor Strives To Restore Law And Order
    Citywide Youth Curfew Begins In Baltimore As Mayor Strives To Restore Law And Order

    About six weeks after an incident where hundreds of teenagers wreaked havoc in Baltimore City’s Inner Harbor area, the city’s progressive leadership finally introduced a curfew Friday night to keep kids off the streets during late night hours. 

    Local media outlet WBAL reported city residents received a message and phone calls on Friday, reminding them, “Curfew ordinance is in effect from 11 pm. to 6 am all summer.” 

    The 11 pm to 6 am curfew is for weekends and holidays and impacts teenagers aged 14, 15, and 16. Another curfew for youngsters under 13 begins at 9 pm. 

    “Under the mayor’s plan, police officers will focus on groups of 10 or more young people, and identification will not be demanded,” WBAL said. 

    The curfew will be enforced in Inner Harbor, Fells Point, and Federal Hill — these areas are home to higher-income households, as well as bars and restaurants. 

    “There will be no pat-downs unless safety is an issue, and officers will not engage until a youth connection worker is at the scene,” WBAL continued. 

    There are a few exceptions to the curfew. One is that parents or guardians can accompany a minor during curfew hours. 

    If a youngster is found breaking the curfew, a relative could face fines of up to $500 for repeat offenses.

    For more color on why the mayor is implementing a curfew on the youth, last month’s incident shows just why:

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    For your safety, it might be wise to steer clear of Democrat cities as crime is rampant. 

     

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 16:00

  • IMF Warns Of Prolonged High Interest Rates, Urges Fiscal Tightening To Tackle Inflation
    IMF Warns Of Prolonged High Interest Rates, Urges Fiscal Tightening To Tackle Inflation

    Authored by Liam Cosgrove via The Epoch Times,

    In a recent statement following its comprehensive assessment of U.S. policies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) emphasized the need for the United States to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period to curb inflation.

    Additionally, the IMF urged Washington to adopt stricter fiscal measures to address the country’s mounting federal debt.

    Despite the U.S. economy demonstrating resilience in the face of tighter monetary and fiscal policies, the IMF noted that inflation has proved more persistent than initially anticipated.

    The IMF’s evaluation, known as the “Article IV” review, included a growth forecast of 1.7 percent for the entirety of 2023, slightly surpassing the organization’s previous estimate of 1.6 percent in April. On a quarter-to-quarter comparison, output was projected to decline by 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter.

    The IMF anticipates that the federal funds rate will reach its peak this year at 5.4 percent, exceeding the nominal 5.25 percent Fed rate, before gradually declining to 4.9 percent by 2024.

    “While both core and headline PCE inflation are expected to decrease throughout 2023, they are predicted to remain significantly above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent throughout the next two years,” the IMF’s May 26 statement read.

    “With a large share of household and corporate debt contracted at relatively long duration and fixed rates, household consumption and corporate investment have proven less interest-sensitive than in past tightening cycles.”

    The international organization warned that, because of these factors, monetary policy may need to get even tighter than today’s already restrictive levels.

    “This creates a material risk that the Federal Reserve will have to raise the policy rate by significantly more than is currently expected to return inflation to 2 percent.”

    IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva participates in a town hall discussion with civil society organizations at IMF headquarters in Washington on Oct. 10, 2022. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

    During a May 26 press conference, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stressed the urgent need for the U.S. government to address its deficits, particularly by implementing higher tax revenues.

    “The sooner we implement this adjustment, the better,” she said.

    “It is important to note that the fiscal adjustment can be front-loaded, which would assist the Federal Reserve in its efforts to combat inflation.”

    Georgieva expressed hope that Washington would find a timely resolution to the ongoing debt ceiling crisis, warning against the dire consequences of a catastrophic default that would further disrupt the global economy.

    “The U.S. Treasury market serves as a crucial stabilizing force for the global financial system,” the IMF director said, highlighting the contraction many economies are currently experiencing.

    “If this anchor is disturbed, the world economy—the vessel that carries us all—will navigate uncertain and turbulent waters.”

    She appealed to U.S. lawmakers, urging them to devise an alternative approach to managing debt that eliminates the need for annual debt ceiling brinkmanship.

    “Could you please explore different avenues to address this issue?”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 15:30

  • CNN Poll Says 66% Of Americans Believe Another Joe Biden Term Will 'Lead To Disaster'
    CNN Poll Says 66% Of Americans Believe Another Joe Biden Term Will ‘Lead To Disaster’

    Following an Associated Press/NORC poll in April which indicated that only 26% of Democrats want Joe Biden to run for a second term as president, a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS now shows that 66% of all Americans (not just Republicans) believe that another four years of Biden could lead to ‘disaster.’  Even CNN can’t dismiss the “horrible news” any longer.

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    The reasons behind this massive decline in support vary.  Biden’s bizarre behavior during the entirety of his first term has led to multiple embarrassing displays during diplomatic events, and many people are beginning to suspect he is suffering from some form of dementia.  Biden has a long list of recorded flubs and outright fantasy tales, from multiple claims that his son “died in the Iraq war” when he actually died of brain cancer…

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    To his constant aimless wandering as if he does not know where he is…

    The feeling of unease is only multiplied by the increasing tensions between NATO and Russia.  With nuclear arms involved, it may be valid to demand that Biden finally take a cognitive test.  Democrats are right to be worried.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 15:00

  • Luongo: No Truce With The Heartland
    Luongo: No Truce With The Heartland

    Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

    All of us so-called geopolitical analysts owe a debt to Halford John Mackinder. His 1904 paper, “The Geographical Pivot of History” is the basis for nearly all strategic thinking in today’s policy rooms, think tanks, and military academies of the West.

    We’ve all heard the first three rules of Mackinder:

    Who rules Eastern Europe commands the Heartland…

    Who rules the Heartland commands the World Island…

    Who rules the World Island commands the world

    Because of the dominance of Mackinder’s ideas and the policies erected to support it, the world has been subjected to endless conflict over his conception of the “World Island,” which is basically Eurasia.

    And that’s why there can be no losing for the West in Ukraine. To the Mackinderists at the top of the power structures in London, Washington D.C. and Brussels, losing Ukraine means losing the entire world, because they have this very-outdated view of world geography.

    Mackinder-ism in today’s world is a tautology, reducing to: We have to control the Heartland because we can’t lose the Heartland.

    In this singular quest to win the Heartland the West has bankrupted itself — economically, morally, and most importantly, spiritually. This has led to a political crisis gnawing at the center of western society.

    Alastair Crooke’s latest piece sums up the situation perfectly, “The EU Is Over-Invested in the Ukrainian War-Project.“

    But it isn’t just the EU that has done this. So has the UK. So too the US.

    The cost/benefit analysis of continuing the Ukraine project has reached the tipping point. The problem now is too many in power, like European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, still believe they have room to maneuver in a conflict looking increasingly stuck in the geopolitical mud of the Donbass.

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    The optics at the G7 meeting couldn’t be more stark. Meeting in the one city that is the ultimate symbol of Western madness, Hiroshima, the symbolism was very clear. We are united in our self-righteousness and if you don’t like it, remember what happened to Japan.

    We will destroy the planet in order to save it. Indivisible European/Asian security is a euphemism for global war.

    No amount of failure seems to dissuade these people. Because failure is simply not an option.

    The problem however, is that their myopia is predictable.

    Bad Code

    When you reduce all of your guiding principles to three lines of code, defeating that code becomes pretty easy, strategically. It doesn’t matter if Mackinder was right or not. He wasn’t. What matters is that the policy-makers think he was.

    We’ve all spent too many words working through this. It’s very simple.

    If you know your opponent will throw everything they have at a conflict then your strategy is a simple one; destroy everything they throw at it until they run out of money, men, and materiel to throw into it.

    And this is exactly what Russia has done.

    It is exactly what I expected them to do at the outset of the war (here, here, and here) failing a swift victory over Ukraine; continue their war of attrition across all theaters against the West until they either 1) sue for peace or 2) collapse under the weight of their own hubris.

    Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson (Who else?), put the kibosh on any early negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine.

    To Crooke’s point, the West’s investment in Ukraine was simply too big to give up that easily. Believing the ultimate sanctions package would overthrow Putin and destabilize Russia, both Davos and the Anglo-neocons bet too heavily on this working. As my dad used to say about pro athletes, “he spends too much time reading his press clippings…”

    Two very Establishment Anglo-American media in the UK (in which U.S. Establishment messages often surface) finally – and bitterly – have admitted: ‘Sanctions on Russia failed’. The Telegraph laments: They “are a joke”; “Russia was meant to have collapsed by now”

    Do they not remember their failure in 2014/15 when this whole Ukraine War project started? They threw Viktor Yanukovich out of power and Russia took Crimea from them. So, their ‘shock and awe’ then was to throw an epic temper tantrum crashing the price of oil from $125 to $25 per barrel.

    This was the first instance of the “Ruble to Rubble” campaign. It didn’t work then. In fact, it set Russia and the world on the path it’s on today. There’s a direct throughline from 2014 to today, not just on the ground but in the financial markets and the politics of the rest of Eastern Europe — The Heartland.

    So, while sanctions are a joke, the use of them will only increase as an excuse now to keep third-parties, like say Hungary, from getting out of lock-step with the plan.

    Too bad for them that no amount of arm-twisting by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock changed Hungary’s decision to block any further EU aid to Ukraine. The Heartland, it seems, is increasingly not down with the Commintern.

    Failure Is Not an Option, It’s Just Inevitable

    But this never seems to matter. No amount of failure has ever prompted these people to do a little second-guessing. Then again, when you can’t see yourself in a mirror self-reflection isn’t a dominant character trait.

    Ukraine has always represented the apotheosis of the Neocon/Neoliberal world order. As Crooke points out, they are facing a very unpleasant choice:

    The war is now, in this way, being projected as a binary choice: ‘End the war’ versus ‘Win the war’. Europe is tergiversating –standing at the cross-roads; hesitantly starting down one road, only to reverse, and indecisively take a few cautious steps down the other. The EU will both train Ukrainians to fly F-16s; and yet is coy about providing the planes. It smacks of tokenism; but tokenism is often the father to mission-creep.

    Indeed it is. Because of the closed-mindedness of those in power in the West — their biases, racism, and arrogance — they will not stop in Ukraine until they are forced to by circumstances.

    Those circumstances will likely be dictated by the revamped Russian military now configured to fight a longer and different kind of war than the one that began in February 2022.

    Every day we see signs that Russia’s military-industrial capacity is increasing rapidly while the EU languishes. The US is rapidly trying to bring back onshore manufacturing lost to the ZIRP and Greenspan Eras, but this is a slow and painful process especially since it has run out of room on the balance sheet to deficit spend to accelerate things.

    “Biden” and his merry band of vandals in D.C. are more than happy to burn the place to the ground more thoroughly than the British did in the War of 1812 if they can’t get their way on unlimited taxing and spending.

    So, here we are. Bakhmut has fallen. The Ukrainian counter-offensive is non-existent. If anything it was already absorbed by Putin and Prigozhin. Zelenskyy will now get F-16s to attack Crimea and use that as some moral high ground for justifying NATO’s official involvement after Russia’s inevitable counter-attack.

    Then the air will be thick with the smell of thermobarics in the morning.

    But, regardless of any of that, there will be no truce in the Heartland. Russia will not back down. China will back them to the end, as will OPEC+ and the rest of Central Asia. But they will not escalate one inch further than they need to. Allowing the West to keep thinking they can win is the ultimate form of grinding out a superior opponent.

    Mack-Ender’s Game

    And even if Ukraine winds up being a decade-long meat grinder with no clear victor, it will serve everyday as a warning to the rest of Asia that there is no going back and their future is better served with their neighbors than accepting bribes to remain viceroys on the West’s payroll.

    That’s why the fight for control over Pakistan is actually more important than Ukraine. Because Pakistan represents the East-West corridor tying the World Island together. While Ukraine is the key to breaking up Russia to destroy the North-South axis.

    The Tragedy of Imran Khan in Pakistan is one of those side issues that’s actually more important than the main issue, Ukraine. The unprecedented intervention by the Pakistani military, always aligned with western forces, is a clear sign that Mackinderism is alive and well in central Asia.

    There is a clear civil war incipient in Pakistan as the civilian government attempts to wrest real control of the country away from the military and its globalist order-givers. Khan’s support isn’t a product of his brilliance as a leader. Like Donald Trump, he is a flawed figure, beset on all sides by traitors undermining him.

    He was ousted through the worst kind of backroom dealing, of the type and kind which Italian deep staters were looking at and saying, “Damn! Bravo.”

    But, also like Trump, the people understand implicitly that he’s one of them. He’s on their side, despite his faults. So, while we see the most amateurish headlines and ‘analysis’ of what’s happening there from our quisling media, the Pakistani people are coming out by the millions to elevate Khan as their champion.

    He doesn’t have to do anything more than survive and return to power to win the day in Pakistan.

    While the West fights desperately to stave off defeat of the Heartland, it’s clear the rest of the World Island is making plans to leave them behind.

    At some point there are simply too many people and too much pressure to keep pushing the world towards a conclusion it doesn’t want to go.

    And that’s when everything changes, literally overnight. Until then, it will be another day, another escalation, another pointless political knife fight and thousands of people dying needlessly.

    When he published that paper in 1904 all Mackinder did was formalize British imperial thinking into an easily-digested thesis for morons.

    Today we are being gaslit by these morons into believing our lives depend on fighting for ‘freedom’ in central Ukraine.

    It was written as the British empire’s grip on power was beginning to wane. World War I would put the capper on that.

    It was a reflection of the growing anxiety bubbling up as the fringes of the empire rebelled. If we can’t hold onto south Africa (The Boer War), for example, at least we should make sure no one controls the World Island as we retreat.

    That’s why Sykes-Picot left us with a Middle East in tribal conflict. Israel only made things there worse. Pakistan was created as anti-India and Ukraine was split off from the USSR in such a way as to ensure we would be exactly where we are today.

    All because some imperial-minded Europeans can’t bring themselves to share the world with brown people.

    *  *  *

    Join my Patreon if you have a heart

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/27/2023 – 14:53

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May 27

Today’s News 27th May 2023

  • Supreme Court Sides With 94-Year-Old Woman Whose Home Equity Was Seized By County
    Supreme Court Sides With 94-Year-Old Woman Whose Home Equity Was Seized By County

    The Supreme Court on Thursday sided with an 94-year-old Minnesota grandmother who was wronged when her county forced the sale of her condominium over unpaid taxes, and kept the proceeds that far exceeded the taxes she owed – the latest “home equity theft” to make headlines.

    The case followed a report late last year by the Pacific Legal Foundation which found that 12 states and DC allow local governments and private investors to seize far more than what is owed from homeowners who fall behind on property tax payments.

    Writing this opinion was Chief Justice John Roberts, who wrote in Tyler v. Hennepin County that “The taxpayer must render unto Caesar what is Caesar’s, but no more.”

    Christina Martin, an attorney for homeowner Geraldine Tyler, told the court during April 26 oral arguments that local governments shouldn’t be able to seize and keep the full value of a home as payment for much smaller property tax debts.

    Minnesota law allows counties to retain windfalls at the expense of property owners – which between 2014 and 2020 applied to around 1,200 Minnesota residents who lost their homes and all the equity in them, for debts that averaged just 8% of the home’s value, according to PLF.

    Tyler owned a modest one-bedroom condominium in Hennepin County, but after she was harassed and frightened near her home, she moved to a new apartment in a safer neighborhood. The rent on her new apartment stretched her resources and she fell into arrears on her condo’s property tax bills, accumulating about $2,300 in taxes owed, along with $12,700 in penalties, interest, and costs.

    The county seized Tyler’s condo, valued at $93,000, and sold it for just $40,000. Instead of keeping the $15,000 it was owed, the county retained the full $40,000, amounting to a windfall of $25,000, according to PLF. -Epoch Times

    Tyler sued, arguing that her Fifth Amendment rights were violated when the government breached the ‘Takings Clause.’ Her lawsuit was originally rejected by the courts, including the US Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit, which found the seizure legal.

    The Supreme Court disagreed, ruling that the principle that Tyler’s right not to have her her property seized goes back to English law, and as far back as the Magna Carta of 1215.

    “The Takings Clause ‘was designed to bar Government from forcing some people alone to bear public burdens which, in all fairness and justice, should be borne by the public as a whole,’” wrote Roberts.

    “A taxpayer who loses her $40,000 house to the State to fulfill a $15,000 tax debt has made a far greater contribution to the public fisc than she owed.”

    “[I]f a bank forecloses on a home because the homeowner fails to pay the mortgage, the homeowner is entitled to the surplus from the sale.”

    In collecting all other taxes, “Minnesota protects the taxpayer’s right to surplus.” So if a taxpayer falls behind on income tax and the state confiscates and sells the property, state law provides that any surplus must be returned to the owner. The same rule is followed regarding arrears of personal property tax—such as for a car—and real property tax.

    In Tyler’s case, the “State now makes an exception only for itself, and only for taxes on real property. But ‘property rights cannot be so easily manipulated,’” Roberts wrote, citing Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, a 2021 Supreme Court decision that pitted the property rights of an employer against labor organizing rights. –Epoch Times

    “Minnesota may not extinguish a property interest that it recognizes everywhere else to avoid paying just compensation when it is the one doing the taking,” Roberts wrote.

    Dan Rogin, Hennepin County assistant administrator and auditor told the Times in an email: “Based on today’s decision which found Minnesota’s law unconstitutional, Minnesota’s property tax forfeiture laws must be revised. Hennepin County will work closely with the Minnesota Legislature to create a process that is consistent with the Supreme Court’s decision.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 23:40

  • Why Are US Military Personnel Heading To Peru?
    Why Are US Military Personnel Heading To Peru?

    Authored by Nick Corbishley via NakedCapitalism.com,

    The ostensible goal of the operation is to provide “support and assistance to the Special Operations of the Joint Command of the Armed Forces and National Police of Peru,” including in regions recently engulfed in violence. 

    Unbeknown, it seems, to most people in Peru and the US (considering the paucity of media coverage in both countries), US military personnel will soon be landing in Peru. The plenary session of Peru’s Congress last Thursday (May 18) authorised the entry of US troops onto Peruvian soil with the ostensible purpose of carrying out “cooperation activities” with Peru’s armed forces and national police. Passed with 70 votes in favour, 33 against and four abstentions, resolution 4766 stipulates that the troops are welcome to stay any time between June 1 and December 31, 2023.

    The number of US soldiers involved has not been officially disclosed, at least as far as I can tell, though a recent statement by Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador, who is currently person non grata in Peru, suggests it could be around 700. The cooperation and training activities will take place across a wide swathe of territory including Lima, Callao, Loreto, San Martín, Huánuco, Ucayali, Pasco, Junín, Huancavelica, Iquitos, Pucusana, Apurímac, Cusco and Ayacucho.

    The last three regions, in the south of Peru, together with Arequipa and Puno, were the epicentre of huge political protests, strikes and road blocks from December to February after Peru’s elected President Pedro Castillo was toppled, imprisoned and replaced by his vice-president Dina Boluarte. The protesters’ demands included:

    • The release of Castillo

    • New elections

    • A national referendum on forming a Constitutional Assembly to replace Peru’s current constitution, which was imposed by former dictator Alberto Fujimori following his self-imposed coup of 1992

    Brutal Crackdown on Protests

    Needless to say, none of these demands have been met. Instead, Peru’s security forces, including 140,000 mobilised soldiers, unleashed a brutal crackdown that culminated in the deaths of approximately 70 people. A report released by international human rights organization Amnesty International in February drew the following assessment:

    “Since the beginning of the massive protests in different areas of the country in December 2022, the Army and National Police of Peru (PNP) have unlawfully fired lethal weapons and used other less lethal weapons indiscriminately against the population, especially against Indigenous people and campesinos (rural farmworkers) during the repression of protests, constituting widespread attacks.”

    As soon as possibly next week, an indeterminate number of US military personnel could be joining the fracas. According to the news website La Lupa, the purported goal of their visit is to provide “support and assistance to the Special Operations of the Joint Command of the Armed Forces and National Police of Peru” during two periods spanning a total of seven months: from June 1 to September 30, and from October 1 to December 30, 2023.

    The secretary of the Commission for National Defence, Internal Order, Alternative Development and the Fight Against Drugs, Alfredo Azurín, was at pains to stress that there are no plans for the US to set up a military base in Peru and that the entry of US forces “will not affect national sovereignty.” Some opposition congressmen and women begged to differ, arguing that the entry of foreign forces does indeed pose a threat to national sovereignty. They also lambasted the government for passing the resolution without prior debate or consultation with the indigenous communities.

    The de facto Boluarte government and Congress are treating the arrival of US troops as a perfectly routine event. And it is true that the US military has long held a presence in Peru. For example, in 2017, U.S. personnel took part in military exercises held jointly with Colombia, Peru and Brazil in the “triple borderland” of the Amazon region. Also, the US Navy operates a biosafety-level 3 biomedical research laboratory close to Lima as well as two other (biosafety-level 2) laboratories in Puerto Maldonado.

    But the timing of the operation raising serious questions. After all, Peru is currently under the control of an unelected government that is heavily supported by Washington but overwhelmingly rejected by the Peruvian people. The crackdown on protests in the south of the Peru by the country’s security forces — the same security forces that US military personnel will soon be joining — has led to dozens of deaths. Peru’s Congress is refusing to call new elections in total defiance of public opinion. Just a few days ago, the country’s Supreme Court issued a ruling that some legal scholars have interpreted as essentially criminalising political protest.

    As Peru’s civilian institutions fight among themselves, Peru’s armed forces — the last remaining “backbone” in the country, according to Mexican geopolitical analyst Alfredo Jalife — has taken firm control. And lest we forget, Peru is home to some of the very same minerals that the US military has identified as strategically important to US national security interests, including lithium. Also, as I noted in my June 22, 2021 piece, Is Another Military Coup Brewing in Peru, After Historic Electoral Victory for Leftist Candidate?, while Peru’s largest trading partner is China, its political institutions — like those of Colombia and Chile — remain tethered to US policy interests:

    Together with Chile, it’s the only country in South America that was invited to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which was later renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership after Donald Trump withdrew US participation.

    Given as much, the rumours of another coup in Peru should hardly come as a surprise. Nor should the Biden administration’s recent appointment of a CIA veteran as US ambassador to Peru, as recently reported by Vijay Prashad and José Carlos Llerena Robles:

    Her name is Lisa Kenna, a former adviser to former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a nine-year veteran at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and a US secretary of state official in Iraq. Just before the election, Ambassador Kenna released a video, in which she spoke of the close ties between the United States and Peru and of the need for a peaceful transition from one president to another.

    It seems more than likely that Kenna played a direct role in the not-so-peaceful transition from President Castillo to de facto President Boluarte, having met with Peru’s then-Defence Minister Gustavo Bobbio Rosas on December 6, the day before Pedro Castillo was ousted, to tackle “issues of bilateral interest”.

    On a Knife’s Edge

    After decades of stumbling from crisis to crisis and government to government, Peru rests on a knife’s edge. When Castillo, a virtual nobody from an Andean backwater who had played an important role in the teachers’ strikes of 2017, rode to power on a crest of popular anger at Peru’s hyper-corrupt establishment parties in June 2021, Peru’s legions of poor and marginalised hoped that positive changes would follow. But it was not to be.

    Castillo was always an outsider in Lima and was out of his depth from day one. He had zero control over Congress and failed miserably to overcome rabid right-wing opposition to his government. Even in his first year in office he faced two impeachment attempts. As Manolo De Los Santos wrote in People’s Dispatch, Peru’s largely Lima-based political and business elite could never accept that a former schoolteacher and farmer from the high Andean plains could become president.

    On December 7, they finally got what they wanted: Castillo’s impeachment. Just hours before a third impeachment hearing, he declared on national television that he was dissolving Congress and launching an “exceptional emergency government” and the convening of a Constituent Assembly. It was a preemptive act of total desperation from a man who held no sway with the military or judiciary, had zero control over Congress, and had even lost the support of his own party. Hours later, he was impeached, arrested by his own security detail and taken to jail, where he remains to this day.

    Castillo may be out of the picture but political instability continues to reign in Peru. The de facto Boluarte government and Congress are broadly despised by the Peruvian people. According to the latest poll by the Institute of Peruvian Studies (IEP), 78% of Peruvians disapprove of Boluarte’s presidency while only 15% approve. Congress is even less popular, with a public disapproval rate of 91%. Forty-one percent believe that the protests will increase while 26% believe they will remain the same. In the meantime, Peru’s Congress continues to block general elections.

    Peru’s “Strategic” Resources 

    As regular readers know, EU and US interest in Latin America is rising rapidly as the race for lithium, copper, cobalt and other elements essential for the so-called “clean” energy transition heats up. It is a race that China has been winning pretty handily up until now.

    Peru is not only one of China’s biggest trade partners in Latin America; it is home to the only port in Latin America that is managed entirely by Chinese capital. And while Peru may not form part of the Lithium Triangle (Bolivia, Argentina and Chile), it does boast significant deposits of the white metal. By one estimate, it is home to the sixth largest deposits of hard-rock lithium in the world. It is also the world’s second largest producer of copper, zinc and silver, three metals that are also expected to play a major role in supporting renewable energy technologies.

    In other words, there is a huge amount at stake in how Peru evolves politically as well as the economic and geopolitical alliances it forms. Also, its direct neighbour to the north, Ecuador, is undergoing a major political crisis that is likely to spell the end of the US-aligned Guillermo Lasso government and a handover of power to Rafael Correa’s party and its allies.

    And the US government and military have made no secret of their interest in the mineral deposits that countries like Peru hold in their subsoil. In an address to the Washington-based Atlantic Council on Jan 19, Gen. Laura Richardson, head of the U.S. Southern Command, spoke gushingly of Latin America’s rich deposits of “rare earth elements,” “the lithium triangle — Argentina, Bolivia, Chile,” the “largest oil reserves [and] light, sweet crude discovered off Guyana,” Venezuela’s “oil, copper, gold” and the fact that Latin America is home to “31% of the world’s fresh water in this region.”

    She also detailed how Washington, together with US Southern Command, is actively negotiating the sale of lithium in the lithium triangle to US companies through its web of embassies, with the goal of “box[ing] out” US adversaries (i.e. China and Russia), concluding with the ominous words: “This region matters. It has a lot to do with national security. And we need to step up our game.”

    Which begs the question: is this the first step of the US government and military’s stepping-up-the-game process?

    The former president of Bolivia Evo Morales, who knows a thing or two about US interventions in the region, having been on the sharp end of a US-backed right-wing coup in 2019, certainly seems to think so. A few days ago, he tweeted the following message:

    The Peruvian Congress’ authorisation for the entry and stationing of US troops for 7 months confirms that Peru is governed from Washington, under the tutelage of the Southern Command.

    The Peruvian people are subject to powerful foreign interests mediated by illegitimate powers lacking popular representation.

    The greatest challenge for working people and indigenous peoples is to recover their self-determination, their sovereignty and their natural resources.

    With this authorization from the Peruvian right, we warn that the criminalization of protest and the occupation of US military forces will consolidate a repressive state that will affect sovereignty and regional peace in Latin America.

    Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador, who refuses to acknowledge Boluarte (whom he calls the “great usurper”) as Peru’s president and has recently faced threats of direct US military intervention in Mexico’s drug wars from US Republican lawmakers, had a message for the US government this week:  “[Sending soldiers to Peru] merely maintains an interventionist policy that does not help at all in building fraternal bonds among the peoples of the American continent.”

    Unfortunately, the US government does not seem interested, if indeed it ever has been, in building fraternal bonds with the peoples of the American continent. Instead, it is set on upgrading the Monroe Doctrine for the 21st century. Its strategic rivals this time around are not Western European nations, which are now little more than US vassals (as a recent paper by the European Council of Foreign Relations, titled “The Art of Vassalisation”, all but admitted), but rather China and Russia.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 23:20

  • Where Trust In The News Is Highest (& Lowest)
    Where Trust In The News Is Highest (& Lowest)

    Trust in news has fallen in many countries around the world, following a temporary increase during the peak Covid-19 pandemic years, albeit still remaining higher than before the health crisis began.

    This is according to the Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2022, which polled 93,000 consumers in 46 markets about a range of digital news topics ranging from perceptions of media coverage of the war in Ukraine to the changing habits of younger consumers as well as where people go for climate news.

    Overall trust in the news fell in 21 out of the 46 markets analyzed, while 18 markets remained at a similar level and only seven saw an uptick.

    Infographic: Where Trust In The News Is Highest & Lowest | Statista You will find more infographics at Statista

     Finland had the highest share of respondents agreeing “you can trust news most of the time” at 69 percent which marks a 4 percentage point increase since the last edition of the report. The United States made little progress and is still rock bottom of the ranking, along with Slovakia, with only 26 percent of people trusting the news most of the time – a 3 percentage point decrease on last year.

    In Latin America, trust was down in Brazil (-6 percentage points) and Colombia (-3) as of February 2022, but at the same level or saw slight improvements in other countries. Meanwhile, of the analyzed countries in Africa, South Africa (+9) and Nigeria (+4) saw improvements, while Kenya saw a decrease (-4). In Asia, trust in news fell in Malaysia (-5) and Taiwan (-4) but grew in the Philippines (+5) and Japan (+2).

    According to the report, while the majority of people across countries remain engaged and use the news regularly, nations with a lower level of trust in news such as the United States (26 percent), United Kingdom (34 percent), France (29 percent) and Slovakia (26 percent) also tended to see some of the highest levels of selective avoidance and declining interest in it. Reasons cited for selective news avoidance – choosing to ration or limit export to news or certain types of news – include being put off by the repetitiveness of the news agenda, feeling worn out by the news, as well as that it brings down their mood, leads to feelings of powerlessness, is too hard to understand or that it can’t be trusted, among others.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 23:00

  • Rickards: DEI Must DIE
    Rickards: DEI Must DIE

    Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

    After taking in hundreds of millions of dollars of corporate contributions, paying millions in bonuses and buying million-dollar mansions for founders, BLM (Bolshevik Lives Matter) ran a $9 million deficit.

    Cowardly CEOs eager to appease the woke mob fall for these scams every time. Could we soon be witnessing the demise of the “DEI” movement?

    The letters “DEI” stand for diversity, equity and inclusion, which is the mantra of corporate and political America today.

    It sounds good. Who doesn’t like diversity in experience and conversation? Who doesn’t support equity? And what’s wrong with the inclusion of individuals in larger groups and institutions? Nothing.

    The problem is that none of these words is used in any common-sense way. They’re used in Orwellian fashion to mean almost their exact opposites.

    In his novel Nineteen Eighty-Four, Orwell wrote the slogan of Big Brother’s political party as WAR IS PEACE. FREEDOM IS SLAVERY. IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH.

    Today’s DEI pushers have done Orwell proud.

    • Diversity means uniformity of thought and practice along ideological and political lines.

    • Equity does not mean equality of opportunity. It means equality of result, which involves handicapping the most talented and taking from the most productive to give handouts to the laziest and least motivated.

    • Inclusion means exclusion of whites from Black dorms, exclusion of unpopular speakers from public venues and exclusion of ideas that vary from a politically rigid orthodoxy. The DEI thought agenda is being enforced by armies of inspectors and compliance officers who will fire you, demote you and denigrate you in front of your peers if you deviate from their thought control.

    It’s time for DEI to DIE. It’s time to exclude these ideas from the campuses, institutions and corporations where they prevail.

    Many decent-minded Americans have begun to push back against the DEI agenda but none more aggressively and successfully than Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. DeSantis has just signed legislation that eliminates DEI in higher education in the state of Florida.

    This comes after DeSantis fired the president and the entire board of trustees of the New College of Florida for their DEI propaganda and replaced them with officials who value honest education and the study of the humanities.

    A lot of people talk a lot about DEI but don’t actually do anything except create sound-bites. DeSantis gets things done. Let’s hope he’s not alone.

    The future of education, open debate and creativity is at stake.

    Related to the DEI agenda is the ESG agenda. And the main component of the ESG agenda is climate. Below, I show you how that climate agenda has little to do with climate — and everything to do with control over you. Read on.

    The Green Fraud

    Those yelling the loudest about climate change want to destroy the oil and natural gas industry, destroy nuclear power plant construction, shut down coal-fired plants, end coal mining, mandate electric vehicles (EVs) on very short deadlines and eliminate gas stoves in your kitchen, fireplaces and even outdoor barbecues.

    They also want to build wind turbine arrays offshore and on deserts, plains and even mountains near you. They want to install solar module fields on every rooftop and open space near a population center. The climate change radicals want to increase the mining of lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, rare earths and other dangerous chemicals to feed their obsession with EV batteries.

    They’re spending hundreds of billions of tax dollars to subsidize the EVs, battery manufacturing and a coast-to-coast network of charging stations to keep the EVs moving (even if they do have to stop for a charge every 180 miles).

    The greenies also want to mandate “15-minute cities” where you can walk everywhere in town within 15 minutes, which means you won’t need your car to visit a doctor, dry cleaner, grocery store, pharmacy or any of the other locations we routinely visit for errands and necessities.

    That may sound attractive if you chose it voluntarily. That’s not what the greenies have in mind. They want 15-minute cities as a Trojan horse to eliminate automobiles entirely and force you to ride bicycles or use public transportation. In the end, you’ll need a permit to fly to another city.

    The permits will be rationed and you’ll have to put yourself on a waiting list until your turn. You can pay for your ticket with the new central bank digital currency (CBDC), assuming your social credit score is high enough and you didn’t vote for the wrong candidate in the last election.

    In short, the climate change agenda is not about climate change. It’s about total political and economic control of the population. So-called climate change is an elite scare tactic to get you to fall into line and obey government orders (as most people do).

    Elites claim that if we don’t radically reduce CO2 (carbon dioxide) and CH4 (methane) emissions, global warming will melt the ice caps, raise sea levels, put island nations underwater and flood the New York City subway system in 10 years or less. They’ve been making similar claims for 40 years and they’ve been wrong every time. That doesn’t stop them. Fear works.

    What is new is that the climate crowd now has the political power they need to push their agenda using fear and the regulatory state to attack your means of transportation, your personal conveniences and your consumer choices.

    This is being enabled by Joe Biden and thousands of bureaucrats buried in the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Department of Energy (DOE), the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and scores of other agencies.

    The U.S. Treasury, SEC and the Federal Reserve have even joined in by regulating loans to the oil and gas industry and requiring financial disclosures about climate change and other ESG (environment, social and governance) metrics.

    Meanwhile, the World Bank (controlled by the U.S.) is being encouraged to deny loans to industries that involve carbon-based development and to steer financing toward projects approved by the climate mavens. This is called the “all of government” approach in which every agency gets involved in pushing the climate agenda, even if it’s not the primary job of that agency. The pressure never stops.

    In short, the climate change debate could not be more relevant to investors. Those calling the shots in the Green New Deal (what I call the Green New Scam) will decide which industries win or lose, which projects get financed (or not), which initiatives are subsidized by the government or left to wither on the vine and which companies will feel the regulatory heat if they don’t get with Biden’s programs.

    Climate change is not a sideshow. Nothing is more relevant to markets, investors and asset allocators today.

    Climate change is real but it’s slow and powerful and has nothing to do with trace gasses such as carbon dioxide and methane. It’s caused by the interaction of complex systems such as sun cycles, ocean currents, wind patterns including the jet stream, volcanic activity, salinity levels (in turn caused by ocean current subduction) and other mega-systems over which humans have no control.

    We’re living in a world where major forces beyond our control have been hijacked by elites to create a climate of fear to achieve their agenda of total government command over your life. It’s time for Americans and citizens around the world to learn the facts, push back on the elites and reestablish public policy based on real science. It’s time to push the flawed models, phony data and bogus warnings out of the way.

    Unfortunately, the public relies on media elites and political leaders for their information. As decades roll by and scare stories are discredited time and again, public skepticism will rise and the alarmists will lose credibility.

    The danger is that alarmists may pass legislation, limit choices and impose costs in the name of climate change before the public catches on to the scam. At that point, the economic damage becomes semi-permanent even if alarmism fades.

    In the elites’ vision, citizens will be confined to small towns or cities for extended periods. Travel will be tightly restricted. Appliances will be downsized with no consumer choice allowed. Taxes will be imposed on targeted activities to discourage use. Education will be turned to indoctrination to raise a generation who believe in the climate lies needed to gain support for these measures (that kind of indoctrination has been underway for some years).

    Welcome to the world of the green elite. It’s coercive, restrictive, arrogant and apparently not much fun. It’s a world where the elites control everything and you do as you’re told. It’s a world based on lies and fear. It’s coming sooner than you expect unless citizens can join hands, reassert the truth and push the elites back into a corner where they belong.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 22:40

  • Rep. Nadler "Wouldn't Care" If Ukraine Used F-16s To Strike Russian Territory
    Rep. Nadler “Wouldn’t Care” If Ukraine Used F-16s To Strike Russian Territory

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) said Wednesday that he “wouldn’t care” if Ukraine used American-made F-16s to strike Russian territory despite the risk of such an attack escalating into a direct clash between the US and Russia.

    When asked by Epoch Times reporter Liam Cosgrove if he was concerned about the potential of Ukraine using F-16s to hit targets inside Russia, Nadler said, “No, I’m not concerned. I wouldn’t care if they did.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Nadler said it was unlikely Ukraine would use F-16s to attack Russian territory, but Cosgrove pointed out that US-made armored vehicles were used in a cross-border raid in Russia’s Belgorod region that was launched on Monday.

    “That may be, but they’re not gonna use major weapons. Things like F-16s, they need for air defense over Ukraine so that they can provide air cover for their counterattack and things like that. They’re not gonna waste it in Russia,” Nadler said.

    So far, there’s no clear timeline for when the F-16s will be delivered to Ukraine. President Biden signed off on European countries delivering the Lockheed Martin-made aircraft, but Ukrainian pilots still need to be trained, and estimates for how long that will take vary from a few months to up to two years.

    Russia has said providing Ukraine with F-16s brings “colossal risks,” a warning brushed off by President Biden. In the early days of the war, NATO chose not to provide Kyiv with fighter jets over concerns Moscow would perceive the move as the alliance directly entering the war.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 22:20

  • Who's Running For President In 2024? (So Far)
    Who’s Running For President In 2024? (So Far)

    Florida Governor Ron DeSantis became the 7th prominent Republican to announce a presidential run for the 2024 election, as data from the Federal Election Commission shows.

    Former president Donald Trump was the first to announce his run back in December, followed by Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson and Tim Scott as well as political outsiders Vivek Ramaswamy and Larry Elder.

    Infographic: Who Is Running For President in 2024? | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    On the Democrats’ side, President Joe Biden filed his bid on April 25 – the same day as in 2019.

    His was preceded by the bids of repeat presidential candidate and self-help author Marianne Williamson and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a nephew of JFK who made headlines for his anti-vaccine stance.

    So who will get the nomination?

    Trump still dominates the field for Republicans (with Desantis actually down a little from April)…

    And unless ‘something’ happens to Biden, the establishment will keep him in place.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 22:00

  • A Lot Has To Change Quickly For Republicans To Have A Chance in 2024
    A Lot Has To Change Quickly For Republicans To Have A Chance in 2024

    Authored by Matt Towery via RealClear Wire,

    To be clear, I am writing this as a pollster, not as a politician or partisan.

    Here’s the bottom line. As it gets closer to the summer of 2023, I would rate the Democrats as more likely to again take/keep the White House. They might even hold on to the Senate and re-take the House.

    This is a tough message to deliver to the Republican faithful at a time when inflation is way up, millions have crossed the border illegally, China and Russia both pose true threats to international stability, and crime has spiraled in many areas of the nation.

    Sure, events and issues would seemingly favor the 2024 Republican nominee for president. But consider this. On Oct. 25, 2022, immediately following a Wall Street Journal poll showing Republicans up by two points in the “Generic ballot” midterm contest, my firm, InsiderAdvantage, also showed Republicans leading Democrats by four points, well within the WSJ poll’s margin of error. Sixteen national polls followed ours in the RealClearPolitics average with only two of the polls showing Democrats leading and one showed a tie. The other 13 polls had Republicans ahead. CNN had the same four-point advantage our survey showed. ABC News/Washington Post along with CBS News had the GOP with a two-point lead. NPR had it at a three-point GOP lead.

    For whatever reason, only a few national pollsters chose to survey the battleground Senate contests in the last few weeks  of the 2022 midterms. Many of us who did, such as one of the most accurate over the past four cycles, Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar, showed Republican candidates in competitive states trending ahead, reflecting what the many national organizations were indicating in their generic ballot polls.

    But the building “Red Wave” disappeared on Election Day. Sure, as pollsters we will be examining our data and weighting for the next cycle. But it may be that for Republicans, opinion surveys, whether suggesting a win or a loss, won’t matter. A loss is more likely regardless.

    Why?

    In part because there exists a not-so-subtle Democratic machine that goes far beyond politicians and now includes significant segments of corporations, media and “nonpartisan” governmental entities. Presidential and battleground Senate races are currently won at the slimmest of margins and Republicans face a system that now requires that their nominee blow past those margins on the crest of not just a possible “Red Wave” but riding a true “Red Tidal Wave.”

    Only that massive “Red Tidal Wave” can carry a Republican back into the White House. Here’s a list of why such a GOP meltdown is possible again and the potential remedies for the party that, at present, seem unlikely to materialize in time to avert disaster for Republicans in 2024.

    If a Tree Falls…

    You know how this goes: If a tree falls in the woods and there is no one to hear it, does it make a sound?

    In the political forest, the answer is no if the tree is Republican or conservative. This is by far and away the biggest obstacle Republicans face in having a fair chance of winning in 2024.

    While Fox News remains the dominant cable news network, it cannot possibly serve to counterbalance the three broadcast news networks along with CNN and MSNBC. Even with Newsmax thrown into the mix, the “conservative” broadcast and online media, based on total viewership and readership, is overwhelmed day in and day out. Other than Rupert Murdoch, conservative-leaning financiers have either lacked the will or have been stymied at forming consortiums to purchase or challenge the “legacy” media. And Republican operatives seem hellbent on spending all their money in short-burst primary and general election cycles. They just assume that everyone knows their view of the news: that President Joe Biden is “cognitively challenged”; the economy is in decline; the border is flooded daily by undocumented immigrants; that crime is destroying the nation’s once great and revered cities; that the U.S. appears weak and unprepared for future aggressions by major foes. You get the point.

    But the average voter doesn’t. Polls asking voters about issues provide conservatives with the appearance that their issues are important to voters as well as the foibles of Democrats. But most issue-oriented polling questionnaires assume that their respondents are aware and have an opinion on the matter. And respondents rarely want to confess that they haven’t a clue. Put that same respondent in an unaided survey where they must articulate the issues of the day and one will find that those opinions on most issues dissolve into a mishmash of general concepts and less definitive answers.

    It seems that Republican leaders just assume that everyone else lives in the bubble they live in. But they don’t.

    Most voters whose vote the GOP might otherwise win don’t much know about critical race theory, the consequences of mounting federal debt, or much of anything conservatives talk about amongst themselves or to their audiences.

    Were it not for Twitter CEO Elon Musk, what little information conservatives manage to get out beyond their bubble would be shut down by the social media establishment.

    Consider the following. On the day after news reports of an IRS whistleblower’s allegations of potential wrongdoing concerning the Department of Justice’s handling of the Hunter Biden investigation and the revelation that Secretary of State Antony Blinken allegedly requested a letter from members of the intelligence community to label the younger Biden’s laptop “a Russian Hoax,” the daily White House briefing was devoid of questions on the two issues.

    Weeks later, when the House Oversight Committee presented financial records of members of President Biden’s family and their business associates receiving over $10 million from foreign corporations linked to China and Romania using a labyrinth of corporations, a massive tree fell. But virtually no one heard it.

    The three “legacy” TV networks did not cover it in their news broadcasts and mostly ignored it on their websites. But taking the old “tree falls” to a new level, The New York Times decided to ignore the tree falling and instead proclaim renewed sturdiness and growth for the tree. Their headline: “House Republican Report Finds No Evidence of Wrongdoing by President Biden.”

    The selective and slanted nature of news now often starts at its initial gathering point and continues in its final presentation to a busy public, most of whom grab their news from social media and news aggregations on their smartphone. Republicans and conservatives have missed the boat in educating voters in a non-controversial and balanced manner, about the true facts and news of the day.

    And consider that conservatives are routinely labeled by the mainstream press with the pejorative phrase “far-right wing” while even the most “out there” liberals are labeled the more upbeat moniker of “progressives.” Republicans haven’t even been able to address the simple matter of the lexicon used in political battle.

    No Check on the Checkers…

    The business of “fact checking” arose with the same foundational financial and logistical support that brings “legacy” news to us. Have you noticed how journalists, and I mean top ones, are willing to use definitive terms like “lies” and “debunked” in their description of certain people and issues rather than the more cautionary and traditional terms like “disputed” and “alleged”? That’s because the fact checkers make definitive statements that allow journalists to definitively dismiss certain matters and embrace others. While the NewsGuards and PolitiFacts of the journalistic world were being incubated and lovingly made into “institutions,” there was no formidable effort made by those who long for a more balanced media to create credible and less politicized alternatives. And that’s a fact!

    Add to that “fact” the amazing coincidence that AI has burst on the consumers of news and social media just in time for what might be the most critical presidential election cycle in American history. Now facts, figures, biographies, and narratives can be gathered, edited and selectively presented to consumers who have no idea who or how their AI database or algorithms were programed or written in the first place. If those wanting a more balanced media don’t fund their own legitimate and well-funded fact-checking organizations, an entire generation will become reliant on one-sided and often extremely biased groups claiming to be the ultimate arbiters of truth.

    ‘Existential’…

    This is the most overused word of the last three years. Everything, it seems, is deemed “an existential threat” to the world. The philosopher Soren Kierkegaard must be rolling over in his grave at the endless use of his central concept.

    So let me keep Kierkegaard spinning. The failure of the GOP to flood nursing homes, bingo halls, and mortuaries (OK, that one is a joke, of a sort) in search of voters willing to cast early ballots remains, as of today, unaddressed, And it really is an “existential threat” to the Republican leaders. They must come to understand that in our post-COVID era, the rules for who votes when and where, and under the aegis of “voter outreach,” has changed forever. Democrats know how to spend buckets of money to advance what could best be termed “selective democracy.” They know just how to bump against the line of what is allowed and what is not, should anyone with any authority and objectivity care.

    The GOP has only months remaining to create armies and methods to match those efforts.

    If the Shoe Fits…

    Republicans must wear it. In recent years Republicans have suffered from a tenuous relationship with white suburban women and younger voters. They are being made to feel guilty in the classrooms, carpool lines or suburban tennis matches that they were born white or were provided opportunities while growing up. It translates as “Republicans are the racist party” by default.

    When Roe v. Wade was overturned, some Republican leaders in various states decided to up the ante on abortion laws. It’s logical for Republicans, given their position on the matter, to advance protecting unborn lives. But to do so without a massive ad and public relations outreach campaign to those essential demographic groups to explain their legislation, creates a political shoe so tight that an elephant’s foot has no prayer of fitting. Hence, a contributing factor to the massive turnout and marginal losses for Republicans in many marginal contests in 2022.

    It’s the same for the issue of gun control versus gun rights. If Republicans want to continue to support a broad interpretation of the Second Amendment, they need to educate a public overwhelmed by a media that does not.

    How about a massive paid ad campaign exposing voters to statistics supporting the claim that in areas where everyone is “packing heat,” so to speak, gun violence drops? If that is indeed the case, don’t just say it on conservative-leaning cable news shows, prove it to the public in well-reasoned ads with real live statistics. Ditto for the value of armed security in every school. If the evidence exists to support those concepts, why is it not front and center in ads on popular TV shows and the web? Shucking and jiving through endless mass shootings isn’t working — and is costing the GOP with younger and suburban swing voters.

    The Tooth Fairy vs. the Dentist and Periodontist…

    Lord knows both parties know how to pander, but Republicans let their “fiscal responsibility” stand in the way.

    Democrats under Joe Biden have been described as “the Tooth Fairy,” promising outrageously massive handouts to various demographic targets with no apparent way to pay for them. Meanwhile, the Republican counter to this Democratic approach is to serve as national dentist and periodontist. Incrementally trying to fight cavities and oral decay but with nothing new to offer voters. Ask yourself “Tooth Fairy or Dentist?” Most would choose the Tooth Fairy every time!

    For the sake of argument, try this idea on for size, Republicans: Propose that the government eliminate all these programs you view as needless handouts, unappreciated foreign aid and government waste.

    Put it all into the Social Security “trust fund” as a sort of “matching contribution” and give seniors a real live retirement that they can live on. Instead of raising the age requirement for benefits, lower it over time! And jack those payments way up while cutting out the “left-wing woke funding” you claim to despise in order help pay for it.

    No one would ever expect that from the GOP. Yet that would consolidate (and could increase) for Republicans a senior base they began to lose during the pandemic, and which continues to be problematic. Based on exit polls of battleground Senate races, increasing the GOP share of the vote among those age 55 and over is the most likely way for Republicans to expand their vote and create a true “Red Tidal Wave.”

    The choice between forgiving college loans of over-educated millennials who offer little potential for significant vote gains, versus an enhancement and expansion of benefits to more senior Americans of all backgrounds, would seem to be a no-brainer. And it would put to rest the constant Democrat go-to of last-minute ads warning seniors that “Republicans want to cut your benefits.”

    How about a national bonus or additional tax credit program for police and firefighters across the nation? How else are we ever going to motivate the next generation to consider taking on these increasingly dangerous and thankless jobs?

    The GOP has become the party of the working person, including those who have worked hard all their lives. Why not seal the deal by promising to reward those voters and taking resources away from programs that encourage the opposite? That is exactly how Democrats under Biden are seemingly operating. They arguably penalize those who work to have good credit by rewarding those who don’t. The Green New Deal makes the future far more expensive and impracticable on the average worker while searching for ways to transfer resources to others in the name of “energy and climate equity.”

    Take from one group and give to another. Republicans better learn to do it big — and soon — or they will wither as a party.

    It’s likely, for the GOP I know, that the shoe won’t fit their agenda either. They will deem such ideas “unworkable and fiscally irresponsible.” As if the Democrats’ “Inflation Reduction Act” was?

    A Better Class of Prisoner…

    In the 1960s, one governor, when asked about the sorry conditions of his state prisons, responded by saying that what the state needed was “a better class of prisoners.” When it comes to Republican campaigns, a better class of prisoners might be called for. Or at least a truce among inmates. For decades Republican political operatives have approached one another as rival “political gangs,” more interested in capturing all the dollars from political donors and spending them through their associates and fellow “gang members,” than winning. “Diss me and my gang and we will cut funds off from your candidate.” We saw that same mentality prevail once again in 2022, and Republican candidates once again were the casualties of it.

    Democrats take a different approach. They tend to work toward one common goal of winning. The spoils of victory are then rewarded after the votes are in and the political power has been gained. Of course, to be fair, Democrat “dark money” is more plentiful, and Republicans often must scrounge around for funds in order to compete.

    A lot has to change in a short time period to give former President Trump or any other Republican nominee a sporting chance of winning in 2024. No GOP nominee, even Trump (who tends to pull more voters to the polls than other modern-day Republican nominees could have hoped for) cannot win if these substantial changes don’t start to take place, and rapidly.

    If not, the elephant walk of 2024 could once again be one straight off the political cliff. But for this upcoming cycle, pollsters will likely be extra careful not to march off that cliff with them.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 21:40

  • Texas Children's Hospital To Stop Offering Hormone Therapy And Other Transgender Services
    Texas Children’s Hospital To Stop Offering Hormone Therapy And Other Transgender Services

    Texas Children’s Hospital will stop offering hormone therapy and other transgender care, according to the Houston Chronicle and ABC affiliate KTRK. 

    In anticipation of a Texas bill — which aims to curb gender-transition care and which was sent to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s desk on May 19  — becoming law, Texas Children’s CEO Mark Wallace told employees the hospital will cease providing some transgender care services within the next few months, according to an email sent May 24 and obtained by the news outlets. 

    The hospital is one of two Texas facilities part of an attorney general investigation based on allegations of providers “unlawfully performing” gender-transition procedures. 

    A screenshot of the email was first posted on Twitter Wednesday afternoon. A hospital spokesperson confirmed its authenticity to the Houston Chronicle. In the email, Wallace said the hospital will “continue to offer psychosocial support and any form of care we can within the bounds of the law.” A Texas Children’s spokesperson said Wednesday that the hospital so far is not canceling any appointments related to transgender care.

    In the email, Mr. Wallace said “we will work with patients and their families to manage the discontinuation of hormone therapies or source appropriate care outside of Texas,” according to KTRK. The hospital said it plans to continue offering psychological care that complies with state laws. 

    “The transition we will embark on is going to be immensely heart-wrenching, but we will lead through this adversity and navigate these next steps together with grace, love and compassion like we always do,” Wallace said in the email. “I understand that there are many viewpoints and opinions related to this matter, but I want to remind everyone that our mission is to create a healthier future for all children.”

    The email followed an announcement last week from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton saying he intended to investigate whether Texas Children’s is “illegally” performing transgender care. His announcement came after a conservative activist posted what he said was evidence that the hospital “secretly” provided such care. That activist posted Wallace’s email to staff on Twitter. Paxton had previously announced a similar investigation at Dell Children’s Medical Center in Austin.

    Senate Bill 14, which would ban transgender care for minors, has not been signed into law, though Gov. Greg Abbott is expected to do so. The state Senate approved a final draft of the legislation last week. The legislation prohibits doctors from prescribing medications such as puberty blockers or from performing surgeries on minors diagnosed with psychological distress about their gender identity.

    A previous statewide directive to investigate medical treatment for transgender youth as child abuse has been paused since a district court ruling last year. Puberty blockers and hormone therapy are widely accepted treatments for patients with gender dysphoria, which is defined by the American Psychiatric Association as psychological distress and anxiety due to a mismatch between a person’s gender identity and their assigned sex at birth.

    In his email, Wallace said changes to gender transition care will take place “over the next few months.” He described the upcoming changes as “painful.”

    “It is difficult for me, the In-Chiefs & Chairs, executives, faculty, staff and care teams to know that this is where we find ourselves,” he said. “However, I want to assure all of you that through this period and after, we all remain dedicated to educating the amplifying the importance of safe, high-quality transgender medicine programs.”

    Wallace went on to ask for “support, empathy and care” for the children, families and care teams affected by the legislation. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 21:20

  • House GOP Questions IRS On Study Of Program That Would Make Agency Tax Preparer, Auditor
    House GOP Questions IRS On Study Of Program That Would Make Agency Tax Preparer, Auditor

    Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Internal Revenue Service Building in Washington, D.C., on May 22, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    IRS officials picked a left-wing think tank to conduct a $15 million “independent review” of a proposal long supported by the same foundation to empower federal officials to prepare Americans’ tax returns, according to House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-Mo.).

    The think tank in question is New America, a Washington-based nonprofit foundation with deep ties to Democrat officials, appointees, and advocates.

    “The characterization of New America as a strictly non-partisan, non-profit is surprising since the organization is known to be a left-leaning think tank. Specifically, some of the non-profit’s top officials include alumni from the Obama Administration … and other top officials of the organization are tied to left-leaning mainstream and openly left-wing media outlets,” Smith said in a March 6 letter to Acting IRS Commissioner Douglas O’Donnell.

    Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) co-signed the letter.

    Smith and Schweikert told O’Donnell that they want copies of all IRS documents generated during the selection process that resulted in New America getting the nod to do the review. The requested documents haven’t been provided to the committee.

    The proposal on the table is to establish the IRS Direct File program, under which taxpayers would have their annual income tax returns prepared by the agency using a new government software program to be developed. The $15 million funding for the review was authorized in an obscure provision of last year’s Inflation Reduction Act.

    Even before New America was selected to conduct the review, the IRS had established a pilot program to begin testing the idea of turning federal officials into tax preparers, in addition to tax collectors and enforcers.

    An IRS spokesman didn’t respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment.

    President Joe Biden’s administration and the Democratic majorities that controlled the 117th Congress approved $80 billion in funding that would allow the addition of 87,000 new IRS agents to its payroll, many of whom could be assigned to tax preparation if the Direct File initiative continues and expands from a pilot project.

    Smith has no doubt that the project will be expanded as fast as Democrats can do it.

    “From the start, the Biden Administration cooked the books to get exactly the outcome it wanted. The IRS chose a left-wing think tank and professor to run the study, both of whom are already on the record supporting the IRS becoming America’s tax preparer, filer, and auditor,” Smith said in a May 16 statement.

    “IRS control of tax preparation is the latest step in Democrats’ ongoing efforts to supercharge the agency to go after working-class families, after giving the agency $80 billion to increase audits on taxpayers making less than $75,000. Americans will be powerless when the IRS completely controls the tax filing process from start to finish,” he said.

    Smith is particularly upset that IRS officials initiated the pilot program without prior congressional authorization.

    “Americans don’t want to give the IRS such sweeping control and authority, yet the Biden Administration refuses to listen,” he said in the statement.

    “The announcement of a pilot program raises serious questions about how long the Biden Administration’s decision to move forward on such a program has been in the works, whether the agency had any intention of following Congress’ direction that this study be conducted in an independent and impartial way, and whether the IRS is acting outside the law in establishing a program that Congress has not authorized.”

    If a truly independent review had actually been sought, New America was an odd choice, he said, given its lengthy record of advocating on behalf of expanding the IRS to be tax preparer, auditor, and collector.

    In a March 2021 analysis, for example, New America argued that “the IRS would calculate taxpayers’ refund based on existing wage data, and then offer a simple and free tool for taxpayers to make corrections, provide additional information, review calculations, and finally file taxes. Such a system is commonplace in many countries, including Spain, Chile, Sweden, Estonia, and Iceland, and a proposal to create it has been repeatedly introduced in Congress by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and other Senate Democrats.”

    But experts within and without the federal government wonder if the IRS could handle such a huge expansion of its powers and duties, if only because the tax agency’s management record in recent years has been the subject of multiple critical reports.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 21:00

  • Black Lives Matter Teeters On Bankruptcy As Insider Transactions Continue
    Black Lives Matter Teeters On Bankruptcy As Insider Transactions Continue

    Black Lives Matter finished its latest fiscal year nearly $9 million in the red, even as world’s premier race-grifting organization continued shelling out millions to execs and relatives of co-founder Patrisse Cullors, according to new tax documents posted last week and first reported by the Washington Free Beacon.  

    The Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation spent double what it took in — $17 million in outlays against just $8.5 million in gross revenue. In contrast, the group took in a whopping $77 million in contributions and grants in the preceding fiscal year, which included half of 2020. Assets plummeted by 28% year-over-year, from $41.9 million to $30.2 million for the fiscal year. 

    “That means it has spent two-thirds of the $90 million it raised [in 2020],” reports the New York Post. Given this report is for the fiscal year that ended on June 30, 2022, the group’s balance sheet may look a lot worse today, after another 11 months of potential deterioration. 

    Black Lives Matter co-founder Patrisse Cullors (via LA Sentinal)

    Broken down by major categories, Black Lives Matter spent $11.5 million on “program services expenses.” $5.1 million on “management general expenses” and $485,000 on fundraising — after all, you have to spend money to waste money. 

    Co-founder Cullors quit the group in May 2021 after the New York Post revealed wild spending by the group and Cullors herself, with massive amounts of the purported charity’s money also flowing to her family members. Some of the greatest hits:

    • BLM paid $970,000 to a company owned by the father of Cullors’ child to “produce live events” and for “creative services“
    • Her brother Paul Cullors was paid $840,000 for providing “security services” for the group
    • Cullors spent $3.2 million to buy four high-end homes, including a $1.4 million house near Malibu and a “custom ranch” in Georgia with an airplane hangar and runway
    • BLM bought a $5.6 million mansion in Los Angeles, which Cullors claimed as an “investment” that would also serve as a “media creation space” and even a safe house for activists. She hosted a Biden inauguration party there. 
    • The group and its affiliates bought a $1.7 million luxury condo in the Bahamas and a $6 million Toronto mansion 

    Many eyebrow-raising expenditures have continued, according to the latest financial disclosures. A company owned by Cullors’ successor, Shalomyah Bowers, was paid $1.69 million over two years for “management and consulting services.”

    A board member’s firm took $1.06 million for “consulting,” and an unidentified board member’s company got $600,000 in the settlement of a “contract dispute.” Cullors’ brother’s security company — Black Ties LLC –was paid another $756,000, and the brother himself also scored $125,000 in compensation plus another $15,000 for unspecified security. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “While Patrisse Cullors was forced to resign due to charges of using BLM’s funds for her personal use, it looks like she’s still keeping it all in the family,” the National Legal and Policy Center’s Paul Kamenar told the Washington Free Beacon. 

    Ohio State University accounting professor Mittendorf was more diplomatic, telling Newsweek that the most significant issue arising from the new disclosure filings is the “continued and substantial transactions with insiders. While this is not improper per se, it does raise concerns about potential conflicts of interest in governing the organization.”

    Referring to the giant influx of money following George Floyd’s killing by Minneapolis police, Cullors marveled, “That was a lot of white guilt money. There’s a lot of white folks being like, ‘We just got to put the money’.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 20:40

  • The Drug War: An Irrational Crusade
    The Drug War: An Irrational Crusade

    Authored by Donavan Lingerfelt via The Mises Institute,

    It’s been over five decades since the war on drugs began in the United States, and billions of dollars coerced from taxpayers have been spent on this frivolous operation.

    The General Accounting Office’s report found that the Drug Abuse Resistance Education (DARE) program did not deter youth from drug abuse.

    How exactly has this war benefited taxpayers when drug use has increased, and more potent drugs are being consumed? Even the diabolical Charles Manson distributed drugs while imprisoned. Does one honestly think the government will eradicate drugs off the streets?

    The mere suggestion of legalizing drugs causes many to accuse me of advocating drug abuse. I do not have any inclination to consume harmful drugs, and neither do I condone such behavior. My motivation for writing this article, however, is grounded in freedom. I hope that after reading this, people across the political spectrum will understand this objective. For people on the right, they should realize this war is unconstitutional. The Constitution does not grant the government control of what someone injects into their body. The state continues to extend its tentacles of power over its people, and the war on drugs is just one facet of that reality.

    The state believes it has the prerequisites to decree what can and cannot be allowed, not just regarding drug policy but in our private lives as well. Lysander Spooner, the nineteenth-century theorist, argued that vices are not crimes: “Vices are those acts by which a man harms himself or his property. Crimes are those acts by which one man harms the person or property of another.” You have total autonomy of your body, not the government or anyone else. This should hopefully register with individuals on the left. Today’s political climate has forced citizens into a political dichotomy with no room outside the uniparty’s parameters. Most politically passionate people fail to realize that they share quite a bit of similarities with their supposed “enemies.” It’s not Left versus Right; it’s the state versus you!

    Many today disregard the significant number of deaths caused by alcohol, tobacco, and prescription drugs. A considerable number of people abuse these substances, but drug warriors seem to disregard these addictions. Alcohol is a form of drug and can be dangerous when consumed as it affects people differently. On average, 140,000 people die every year from this beverage. Prescription drugs claim 16,500 lives per year. Tobacco consumption is the foremost cause of preventable deaths at an astounding 480,000 deaths annually. One can consider food to be a drug, and its abuse leads to a multitude of health issues. Heart disease, being one of those issues, is the leading cause of death in America.

    The government doesn’t care about your well-being or privacy; it only wishes for complete control over you. Financial privacy has even been encroached upon by the state due to the drug war. Deposits of more than $10,000 in the bank are reported to the Internal Revenue Service even though it’s your money. If you are pulled over with a substantial amount of cash, the police can confiscate your money under civil asset forfeiture laws. Essentially, you are guilty until you prove your money was legally acquired. They can slander your name for simply transporting cash. Police, on countless occasions, have been found planting drugs on one’s person or vehicle. By ending the war on drugs, the accused can be protected from these pernicious acts.

    In 2003, the life of a young man, Weldon Angelos, was ruined by the war’s idiocy. An undercover informant made several purchases from Angelos involving minimal amounts of weed. The informant claimed Angelos possessed a gun, despite one never being brandished or used. Initially, Angelos would have been imprisoned for a day, but federal law required fifty-five years due to a gun being present during the transactions. Presiding over the case, Judge Paul Cassell was so distraught at handing down this absurd sentence that he later petitioned for Angelos’ release. An actual criminal who had committed child rape, second-degree murder, or an aircraft hijacking would have had a shorter sentence than Angelos. After public outrage, Angelos was released in 2016 and pardoned in 2020. Unfortunately, there are many stories like Angelos’ across our country.

    Due to the irreparable harm from Richard Nixon’s war, the US has the world’s largest prison population. China has almost half as many incarcerated individuals. When comparing China’s population to America’s, this is an astounding statistic. In 2020, over a million people were arrested for using or possessing illicit drugs. The government and the police will be further strengthened as they wage their unjust war, while citizens are terrified of false accusations. To clarify, I am not arguing that a person on drugs who hurts or steals from someone should not be in jail. There should be no leniency for these violent crimes. Harm done to people and property are crimes, not vices. To help solve the drug epidemic, however, one should realize this war has not worked.

    There are a few countries that have pursued intriguing alternatives to this crisis. The Netherlands has decriminalized cannabis possession of less than five grams. Psychedelic mushrooms were made illegal in the Netherlands in 2008, yet users found with small quantities are not criminally charged. In Switzerland, they adopted a policy of helping their drug-addicted citizens instead of fighting drugs. For the past two decades, the Swiss have implemented drug-consumption rooms and needle exchange programs. By providing clean needles to users, this reduces the risk of infections. Because of these measures, HIV infections have declined at a significant rate, and Hepatitis C cases have continued to decrease since 2002. Consumers at drug-consumption rooms are watched to prevent overdoses. Facility employees make connections with these individuals without stigmatizing them. Users are more comfortable with what they inject at drug facilities compared to what they may find on the streets.

    Portugal has arguably been the most prominent trailblazer in drug policy reform. In 2001, they decriminalized all drugs, treating it as a health-conscious issue rather than a criminal one. Individuals possessing less than a ten-day supply of any drug will not be punished with prison time but will usually be sent to a commission for recovery treatment options. The European Union’s average rate of drug-related deaths is five times higher than Portugal’s. From 1998 to 2011, drug treatment attendees in Portugal increased by 60 percent. This result is encouraging because Portuguese citizens are seeking help, rather than fearing incarceration.

    An ample portion of US states and cities have changed their tune on drug legalization based on the positive results from the aforementioned countries. Marijuana used for medical purposes is currently legal in thirty-eight states, while recreational use is permitted in twenty-two states. In 2021, the city of Seattle approved legislation decriminalizing psychedelics, which mirrors the policies of Oakland and Santa Cruz. Similar to Portugal’s revolutionary policy, Oregon has adopted legislation that will not criminally charge individuals with small quantities of any drug but will instead enforce a hundred dollar fine. Although there is much to improve in America’s drug policy, these states and cities are taking a closer step toward allowing citizens the freedom to choose what they can consume. Hopefully, all states can learn from these drug pioneers, domestic and abroad, that are helping addicts rather than waging an irrational crusade against their people.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 20:20

  • "Glut Of Inventory" Hits Hamptons As Rental Demand Cools
    “Glut Of Inventory” Hits Hamptons As Rental Demand Cools

    Considering the following: private jet demand in the US is sliding, and summer rental rates in the Hamptons have dropped. These could be indications that some of the wealthiest Americans are pulling back on spending as recession fears mount.

    Vacation rental company StayMarquis said the average nightly rate for a home in the Hamptons averaged $970 as the summer season begins. This is down from $1,080 last year and follows two years of price surges since the Hamptons exploded in popularity during the pandemic. 

    “More properties are available to rent, there are better deals and landlords are more open to shorter stays.” Jordan Flerx, a vice president at StayMarquis, told Bloomberg. 

    Flerx continued, “You can take advantage of properties that you would not have been able to shoot for in the past.”

    The slowdown in demand for Wall Street’s most popular summer playground, situated 90 miles east of Manhattan, may result from capital market turmoil over the past year and a half. The Federal Reserve’s most aggressive interest rate hikes in a generation to tame high inflation has led to sliding banker bonuses. 

    The slowdown has sparked a “glut of rental inventory” that has led to favorable conditions for tenants, according to Judi Desiderio, the CEO of Town & Country Real Estate. This means tenants have the upper hand in price negotiations. 

    Bloomberg provides a list of available Hamptons properties that show discounting: 

    “Southampton Seclusion” (Southampton)

    • July 2023 Price: $110,000
    • July 2022 Price: $120,000

    “Village Fringe Luxury” (East Hampton)

    • July 2023 Price: $60,000
    • July 2022 Price: $70,000

    “Art Village Retreat” (Southampton)

    • July 2023 Price: $60,000
    • July 2022 Price: $75,000

    “Sandpiper Spindrift” (Westhampton)

    • July 2023 Price: $68,000
    • July 2022 Price: $75,000

    “North Fork Waterfront” (East Marion)

    • August 2023 Price: $40,000
    • August 2022 Price: $50,000

    Besides sliding demand for summer rentals in the Hamptons, there has been a drop in private jet demand in the US. 

    Also, the latest debit and credit card data published by the Bank of America Institute shows higher income consumers are beginning to crack. 

    The signs are becoming more evident the upper cohort of American consumers is curtailing spending as the economic storm clouds gather. It raises the question of whether financial advisors are recommending their wealthy clients to brace for the impact of a hard economic landing.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 20:00

  • The Corruption Of Climate Science
    The Corruption Of Climate Science

    Authored by Edward Ring via American Greatness,

    Instead of fighting anti-civilization lunacy, corporations are taking their money off the table, along with their life-affirming affordable fuel…

    “We need to criticize the people who got us here,” says Alex Epstein, founder of the Center for Industrial Progress and author of Fossil Future.

    “We can’t keep treating these designated experts as real experts. They are not real experts, they are destroyers. They are anti-energy, non-experts. And that needs to be made clear.”

    Epstein is right, and his advice has never been more urgent—or as difficult to make people understand. It is no exaggeration that every major institution in America has now committed itself to the elimination of affordable and abundant energy. If it isn’t stopped, this commitment, motivated by misguided concern for the planet but also by a lust for power and money and enabled by moral cowardice and intellectual negligence, will destroy Western civilization.

    For over 50 years, with increasing frequency, corrupted, careerist scientists have produced biased studies that, amplified by agenda-driven corporate and political special interests, constitute a “consensus” that is supposedly “beyond debate.” We are in a “climate crisis.” To cope with this climate emergency, all measures are justifiable.

    This is overblown, one-sided, distorted, and manipulative propaganda. It is the language of authoritarians and corporatists bent on achieving even more centralized political power and economic wealth. It is a scam, perhaps the most audacious, all-encompassing fraud in human history. It is a scam that explicitly targets and crushes the middle class in developed nations and the entire aspiring populations in developing nations, at the same time as its messaging is designed to secure their fervent acquiescence.\

    What is actually beyond debate is not that we are in a climate crisis but that if we don’t stop destroying our conventional energy economy, we are going to be in a civilizational crisis.

    Energy is the foundation of everything—prosperity, freedom, upward mobility, national wealth, individual economic independence, functional water and transportation infrastructure, commercial-scale agriculture, mining, and industry. Without energy, it all goes dark. And “renewables” are not even remotely capable of replacing oil, gas, coal, nuclear, and hydroelectric power. It’s impossible.

    The only people who think renewables are capable of replacing conventional energy are either uninformed, innumerate, or corrupt. Period.

    But to cope with the apocalyptic messaging of climate catastrophists, it isn’t enough to debunk the potential of renewables. It is also necessary to challenge the underlying climate “science.” The biased, corrupt, unceasing avalanche of expert “studies” serving up paid-for ideas to special interests that use them as bludgeons to beat into the desired shape every relevant public policy and popular narrative. So here goes.

    A new study, released May 16, deserves far more criticism than it’s going to get. Authored by seven ridiculously credentialed experts and primarily affiliated with the leftist Union of Concerned Scientists, this study has the rather innocuous title: “Quantifying the contribution of major carbon producers to increases in vapor pressure deficit and burned area in western US and southwestern Canadian forests.” Bursting with charts and equations, and too many links to corroborating sources to count, the study has all the accouterments of intimidating credibility. But serious questions may be raised as to its logic as well as its objectivity.

    Biased, Flawed Studies

    For starters, this study doesn’t restrict itself to “Quantifying the contribution of major carbon producers to increases in vapor pressure deficit.” The authors can’t resist attacking these “major carbon producers.” In this revealing paragraph, the study’s true intent becomes apparent: it is fodder for litigation.

    With the impacts of climate change growing increasingly severe, questions of who is responsible for climate change, how much responsibility each entity bears, and the obligations of those entities to mitigate future climate change and assist financially with climate adaptation are more present than ever in policy negotiations and in courtrooms around the world. These questions are deepened by the fact that the fossil fuel industry was aware of the climate-related risks of their products as early as the mid-1960s (Franta 2018) and, instead of shifting business practices, invested in campaigns and tactics to mislead the public and generate doubt about climate science.

    That paragraph has nothing to do with the stated goal of the study. It just shows the political and legal context in which this study is designed to play a useful part. But what about the logic?

    Here is where this study falls apart. It’s always fascinating to wade through intellectual efforts that are the product of extraordinary diligence and rarified expertise, only to discover the absence of fundamental variables and realize that by leaving them out, the entire argument disintegrates.

    To explain what the authors got wrong, it is first necessary to summarize what they did. In plain English, the authors claim that hotter summers in recent years have caused more severe forest fires in the western United States, and fossil fuel emissions are causing the hotter summers.

    That’s it.

    To make their case, the authors have relied on a scientific term that imparts gravitas to the discussion, “vapor pressure deficit.” This is a big phrase that simply means “dry air.” The point they’re making is that it isn’t merely heat itself, but the fact that moisture is absent from the air, which causes trees to dry out faster and therefore become easier to ignite and burn. So far, so good. But there are at least two gaping holes in this reasoning. Both should be obvious.

    First, the heat waves afflicting western forests in recent years are not unique. Even in modern history, the hottest temperature ever recorded in California was in 2013, when it hit 134 degrees in Death Valley. As for whipsawing extremes, during the 1930s, a decade when hot temperatures rivaled if not exceeded those we experience today, the coldest temperature ever measured in California, negative 45 degrees, was recorded in Nevada County. But the last few centuries are a mere heartbeat in the meteorological history of California.

    Last year the San Jose Mercury breathlessly reported that the drought—over now, by the way—was the “worst in 1,200 years.” This raises the obvious question, what about that even bigger drought that occurred 1,200 years ago? This same newspaper in 2014 reported that “past dry periods lasted more than 200 years.” And so what about these multi-century droughts? Do we have temperature data for them? Was it hot? What was the vapor pressure deficit during these prehistoric, 200-year droughts? Such questions are not asked, much less answered.

    One can go on. Prehistoric Sequoias, the predecessors of redwood trees, first appeared in the fossil record 200 million years ago, when dinosaurs still walked the earth. In their current form, redwoods have thrived in California for over 20 million years. For most of that period, the average global temperatures were considerably higher than they are today.

    But what if it isn’t just heat, but dry heat, that is unprecedented today? What if the “vapor pressure deficit” is worse today than it has been at any time in 20 million years? That is a huge assumption, probably impossible to verify. Even if it’s true, it doesn’t make up for the study’s other flaw, which is the density of forests in California today, which is truly unprecedented. The study’s authors acknowledge they don’t take this variable into account, writing:

    Our results highlight the roles of major carbon producers in driving forest fire extent by enhancing fuel aridity, but do not explicitly account for effects from non-climatic factors such as the prohibition of Indigenous burning, legacies of fire suppression, or changing human ignitions.

    The authors go on to contend this omission has “not modified the climate-BA [burned area] relationship at the scale of this study.”

    They’re wrong.

    In California, wildlife biologists and forest ecologists who spend their lives studying and managing these timberlands unanimously agree that tree density has increased, thanks to “non-climatic factors such as the prohibition of Indigenous burning, and legacies of fire suppression.” The increase is not subtle. Without small, naturally occurring fires that clear underbrush and smaller trees, forests become overgrown. Controlled burns and responsible logging are absolutely necessary to maintain forest health. According to a study conducted in 2020 by UC Davis and USDA, California’s mid-elevation Ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forests used to average 60 trees per acre, and now they average 170 trees per acre according to conservative estimates.

    This is not an isolated finding. Observations of excessive tree density are corroborated by numerous studies, testimony, and journalistic investigations. Unlike the subjectively defined algorithms plugged into a climate model, excessive tree density is an objective fact, verified repeatedly by people on the ground. To imply by omission that more than tripling the density of trees across millions of acres of forest would not leave them stressed and starved for soil nutrients, sunlight, and water from rain and atmospheric moisture is scientific malpractice.

    Without taking these additional factors into account, it is deceptive to indict fossil fuel emissions for causing wildfires. Perhaps some indirect connection can be established of debatable relevance, but for this study to assign specific percentages and acreages suggests a premeditated purpose: creating material for expert testimony for litigation against oil companies.

    The Real Reason for Catastrophic Wildfires

    California’s forests are tinderboxes because environmentalists made it nearly impossible to get permits to do controlled burns and because environmentalists decimated the timber industry. In the face of relentless regulatory and litigious harassment, California’s timber industry has shrunk from harvesting 6 billion board feet per year as recently as the 1990s to less than 2 billion board feet in recent years. Meanwhile, California’s fire suppression industrial complex has grown to gargantuan proportions, pouring billions of dollars into putting fires out before they can spread.

    The result is predictable and doesn’t require a climate scientist to explain it. We have mismanaged our forests for decades, mostly thanks to the misguided influence of environmentalist pressure groups on the state legislature. California’s forests are now overcrowded with trees that are stressed, dried out, and ready to burst into flames, with or without a “vapor pressure deficit.”

    The solution, according to climate catastrophists, is to empty the dangerous, flammable “urban/wildland interface” of human habitation, mandate electric vehicles, and sue oil companies. This will accomplish nothing for the forests, even if every apocalyptic climate scenario were to come true. A rational solution would be to bring back the timber industry, deregulate controlled burns and mechanical thinning, revive responsible grazing of cattle, goats, and sheep to remove excessive foliage, and watch the forests again thrive.

    If mismanagement is what’s really causing forest superfires, media misinformation is what’s preventing policy reform. A Sacramento Bee headline, for example, says, “Fossil fuel companies to blame for share of California wildfires . . . ” From The Hill: “Scientists blame fossil fuel production for more than a third of Western wildfires.” From “Pulitzer Prize-winning” Inside Climate News: “Fossil Fuel Companies and Cement Manufacturers Could Be to Blame for a More Than a Third of West’s Wildfires.” None of these media reports mention tree density.

    The monolithic alignment of the scientific and journalistic community in support of an authoritarian, utterly impractical “climate” agenda reveals a misunderstanding if not outright betrayal of scientific and journalistic core values. Both disciplines are founded on the bedrock of skepticism and debate. Without nurturing those values, the integrity of these disciplines is undermined. When it comes to issues of climate and energy policy in America, science and journalism are compromised.

    Fossil Fuel Industry Failures

    Let’s suppose that back in the mid-1960s, oil companies were presented with a theory that fossil fuel emissions would cause the climate to warm. Wouldn’t their first rational response be to question this theory? Why would questioning a theory constitute “misleading the public”? Even if some of the executives in these companies believed these theories, it would be absurd to suggest all of them did. In any boardroom discussion, and this is amusingly ironic, the economic interests of an oil corporation would compel their directors to be intellectually honest and not simply accept the theory that their product was going to warm the planet. Good luck proving that oil companies intentionally misled the public.

    But so what? Were America’s oil and gas companies simply supposed to believe all these nascent theories and shut down? What exactly should they have done, back in the mid-1960s, to cope with this allegedly looming climate emergency? Were solar panels and wind turbines ready for rapid deployment back then? Of course not, especially since solar panels from China, and wind turbines from Germany, are still not capable of providing more than a small fraction of the energy we need.

    The real crime, if you want to call it that, isn’t that oil and gas companies questioned climate change theories back in the 1960s or ’70s. It’s that they’re accepting them now.

    Oil and gas companies today are not willing to challenge the climate crisis orthodoxy, or the myth of cost-effective renewables at scale. They aren’t willing to devote their substantial financial resources to debunking this agenda-driven madness that is on the verge of taking down our entire civilization. The fact that America’s oil and gas companies have adopted a strategy of appeasement is a crime against humanity. The fact that these companies are failing to make long-term investments to develop new oil and gas fields, and instead are reaping windfall profits as they sell existing production at politically inflated prices, that, too, is a crime against civilization.

    Ultimately, the Union of Concerned Scientists and the major oil companies are complicit in the destruction of America’s energy economy. Because rather than declaring total war on these paid-for, flawed scientific studies and the special interests that fund them, oil companies will engage in theatrical litigation, knowing that the cost of settlements won’t even come close to the short-term profits to be had by slowly asset stripping their companies while selling diminishing quantities of fuel at punitive rates.

    Epstein is right that we must criticize the “experts” that want to destroy human civilization with climate alarmism. But we must also recognize and criticize the institutions targeted for destruction. Instead of fighting this lunacy, they are taking their money off the table, along with their life-affirming affordable fuel, and heading for the hills.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 19:40

  • Lavrov Hails China's "Balanced Position" On War As Ukraine Asked To Give Up Territory
    Lavrov Hails China’s “Balanced Position” On War As Ukraine Asked To Give Up Territory

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hailed China’s “balanced position” on the conflict in Ukraine during a Friday meeting with Chinese special envoy Li Hui in Moscow.

    China has thus far resisted Western pressure to condemn Moscow, but has instead tried to present a neutral stance while issuing occasional statements condemning NATO expansion and US global dominance. Beijing has also been among a handful of Asian countries to have greatly expanded Russian energy imports since the start of the war.

    Li Hui in Moscow

    The Chinese envoy on Friday once again called for an immediate ceasefire, at a moment Russian forces are consolidating gains in Donetsk, particularly in Bakhmut where Wagner finally declared victory over the weekend following more than 200 days of fierce fighting.

    According to The Wall Street Journal Li Hui conveyed a clear message that: “US allies in Europe should assert their autonomy and urge an immediate ceasefire, leaving Russia in possession of the parts [of Ukraine] …that it now occupies.”

    China has also sent representatives to Ukraine and Europe, with EU officials conveying their stance that freezing the conflict was not in their interest. The Zelensky government too believes that a ‘freeze’ would only allow the Russians to resupply, regroup, and fortify their positions. Western allies have also been arguing against a freeze.

    EU officials reportedly told the Chinese envoy that “it’s impossible to split Europe from America” and that Europe remains committed and unified in support of Ukraine.

    According to a review of Friday’s meeting between Russian and Chinese representatives: 

    Russia’s Lavrov expressed gratitude for China’s “balanced position” and willingness to play a positive role in a meeting with China’s Ukraine envoy, the foreign ministry said.

    China’s Li Hui, who spent 10 years as ambassador to Moscow, has been on a tour of European capitals, and last week visited Kyiv.

    After those talks, China said it wanted to “form the greatest common denominator for resolving the Ukrainian crisis, and make its own efforts to stop the fighting and (establish a) ceasefire and restore peace as soon as possible”.

    Kyiv has told Li, however, that it would not accept any proposal that involved Ukraine losing territory.

    Hawks in both Britain and the United States have urged Ukraine to stay the course, despite mounting troop casualties in the tens of thousands. The UK especially has long been accused of actively thwarting attempts at peace talks which were proposed last year – instead encouraging Ukraine to ‘win’ militarily. President Zelensky has all the while maintained that talks with Moscow are impossible until Russian troops leave every bit of Ukrainian territory.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 19:20

  • Americans Say Families Need $85,000 To Get By, Up From $58,000 In 2013
    Americans Say Families Need $85,000 To Get By, Up From $58,000 In 2013

    By Mary Claire Evans of Gallup

    Americans, on average, estimate that a family of four needs a minimum income of $85,000 annually to “get by” in their community, marking a considerable increase from a decade ago. The past decade has witnessed not only an increase in the average income required but also a notable shift in the upper range of income expectations.

    During that time, the proportion of Americans who believe that a family needs more than $100,000 to get by has tripled to 30%, while 18% now estimate it to be between $75,000 and $99,999, and 31% think it is $50,000 to $74,999. Half as many Americans now as in 2013 believe a family of four can get by on less than $50,000 annually. This includes 3% who estimate a figure lower than $30,000, and 11% who cite a figure between $30,000 and $49,999.

    The latest average of $85,000, from an April 3-25 Gallup poll, is notably higher than the federal poverty line for a family of four, which is currently $30,000.

    In 2013, the average estimate was $58,000, and the federal poverty line for a family of four was $23,550. Accounting for inflation and the subsequent change in purchasing power, Americans’ 2013 estimate translates to $75,668 in 2023 dollars. Their 2023 estimate therefore reflects an increase of about $9,000 in perceived family needs beyond what inflation alone would account for.

    Higher-Income Respondents Believe Families Need More

    Americans’ perceptions of the minimum income a family of four needs are influenced by their own financial circumstances. Specifically, those with an annual household income of $100,000 or more project $100,000, on average, as necessary for a family to get by. Middle-income respondents, those with between $40,000 and $99,999 in annual income, estimate a family needs about $80,000. Meanwhile, those earning less than $40,000 believe an income of about $66,000 suffices.

    Eastern, Suburban Residents Give Higher Estimates

    Geographical location also influences Americans’ perceptions of the income needed for a family of four to get by. Notably, residents in the Eastern U.S. estimate, on average, that families need an income of about $98,000, which is significantly more than the estimates from other regions. Residents in the Midwest have the lowest estimate, saying families need an average income of $76,000. These regional differences likely reflect variations in cost of living, housing prices and wage levels.

    Similarly, Americans’ views on the minimum income for a family of four are influenced by their urbanicity. Those residing in cities (about $87,000) and suburban areas ($91,000) project a higher required income for a family of four than those living in towns or rural areas ($78,000).

    These findings are similar to those from 2013, when Eastern and suburban residents’ estimates of what a family of four needs to get by were substantially higher than those given by people in other regions or urbanicities.

    Bottom Line

    The rise in perceived necessary income to support a family of four highlights the economic pressure facing American households as high inflation stretches into a second year.

    There is a diversity of socioeconomic realities across various population segments and geographic locations. Notably, individuals residing in urban and suburban areas, as well as those with higher incomes, tend to estimate a higher necessary income for a family of four. These patterns might reflect their cost-of-living circumstances as well as differences in perceptions of need and evolving lifestyle aspirations.

    The increasing estimate of required income may also be linked to the rise in two-income families. Americans’ average estimate for getting by sits at $85,000, an amount more likely to be reached only in families with dual incomes, further emphasizing the changing economic dynamics of American households.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 19:00

  • Florida Citrus Industry Posts Worst Year Since 1930s After Hurricane Damage And Crop Disease
    Florida Citrus Industry Posts Worst Year Since 1930s After Hurricane Damage And Crop Disease

    Authored by Bryan Jung via The Epoch Times,

    Florida’s citrus industry posted its worse harvest since 1937, which should give orange fans some pause at the supermarket.

    Damage from the 2022 hurricane season, combined with the impact of citrus greening disease, is ravaging the Sunshine State’s orange crop.

    This will likely cause citrus prices to skyrocket nationwide, as Florida farmers recorded its smallest orange harvest in 90 years, according to the state’s latest agriculture report.

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in January that only 18 million boxes of Florida oranges would be on the market in 2023, a 56 percent drop from last year.

    Peak orange production in Florida is normally at 244 million boxes a year.

    “No doubt, as the supply of juice continues to rise because of the storms and the low harvest. The prices of oranges are gonna go up and that’s simple supply and demand,” Matt Joyner, CEO of Florida Citrus Mutual, told Fox Business.

    “We are devoted to getting back into production and making sure that the orange juice that Americans know and love is available to them. Hopefully, we’ll see these prices come back down soon.”

    Oranges hang on a tree at one of the Peace River Packing Company groves in Fort Meade, Fla., on Feb. 1, 2022. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    Sparking Worldwide Shortages

    The collapse of Florida’s orange harvest is having effects worldwide, as the Sunshine State, along with Brazil, produces the majority of oranges for the global citrus market.

    The Wall Street Journal reported that the price for a gallon of orange juice in some parts of the United States is already above $6.

    U.S. orange prices have already risen 25 percent, while other countries have seen prices more than double.

    “Congress, back in December, appropriated money for disaster relief, and there was money for agriculture nationwide, which would include the disasters here in Florida from 2022,” said Joyner.

    “Unfortunately, we’ve not seen any of that aid make it down to the state yet, but we continue to have conversations with USDA, and we’re hopeful that maybe some of those funds will start flowing,” he added.

    The $9 billion citrus industry employs more than 76,000 full- and part-time workers and provides over 90 percent of orange juice consumed in the United States.

    Natural Disasters

    The University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences estimated that Hurricane Ian caused more than $1 billion in damage to the state’s agriculture industry, including $247 million to the citrus crop.

    Massive winds, rainfall, and flooding caused damage in nearly 77 percent of the state’s counties.

    Workers attempt to prop up with stakes the new growth orange trees in an orange grove in Arcadia, Fla., on Oct. 20, 2022, in the wake of Hurricane Ian. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    However, the situation worsened with a hard freeze in January that ruined many surviving oranges.

    “It’s eight months after the storm and you can imagine the difficulty that growers are having in recovering and going on with their operations without any kind of disaster relief at all,” said Joyner.

    The advocacy group Florida Citrus Mutual, along with a delegation of citrus growers, met with USDA officials and members of Florida’s Congressional delegation in May to discuss further hurricane relief

    Farmers are currently more worried about the spread of citrus greening disease which was first detected in 2012 in California and is beginning to sweep the Florida peninsula.

    Some growers have planted disease-resistant orange tree rootstocks developed by University of Florida citrus researchers in a bid to save the industry.

    The bacteria are a threat to most of Florida’s citrus trees, leaving bitter, greenish fruits that are inedible.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 18:20

  • US Corporations Are Filing For Bankruptcy At The Fastest Pace Since 2010
    US Corporations Are Filing For Bankruptcy At The Fastest Pace Since 2010

    One would not know it from looking at the S&P which just hit a 2023 high, but there is a bit of a bankruptcy crisis sweeping the US where companies are filing for bankruptcy at the fastest pace in 13 years, in a clear sign of a tightening credit squeeze as interest rates rise and financial markets have locked out all but the strongest borrowers.

    The increase is most visible among large companies, where there were 236 bankruptcy filings in the first four months of this year, more than double 2022 levels, and the fastest YTD pace since 2010 according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

    Several large recognizable companies with hundreds or thousands of workers have filed for bankruptcy protection in recent weeks, including Bed Bath & Beyond and Vice Media, although their financial troubles predated the recent economic turmoil.

    The bankruptcies did not slow down in May, when just the past week saw eight companies with more than $500 million in liabilities file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, including five in a single 24-hour stretch last week, making this the busiest week for chapter 11 filings so far this year. In 2022 the monthly average was just over three filings.

    Last week’s eight large filings, those with at least $50 million of liabilities, included those of now defunct woke “media empire” Vice Media, Envision Healthcare and Monitronics International. Prior to last week, the busiest seven-day stretch this year belonged to a week in late February that saw firms including Covid-19 testmaker Lucira Health, generic drugmaker Akorn and former SPAC Starry Group kick off insolvency proceedings

    In total, twenty-seven large debtors have filed for bankruptcy so far in 2023 compared to 40 for all of 2022, according to figures compiled by bankruptcydata.com.

    Among all types of companies, large and small, the increase in bankruptcies is somewhat more muted, with filings remaining below pre-pandemic levels and historic norms, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. However filings, especially among large, unprofitable companies, are ramping at a frenzied pace as interest rates rise, pandemic-era government support dries up and sales growth slows amid a cooling economy.

    There were about 16,200 bankruptcy filings among all types of companies in U.S. District Courts in the first quarter — up from 12,200 a year earlier, but still well below the 21,000-or-more-a-quarter in the pre-pandemic period, data from Moody’s Analytics shows. Even those pre-pandemic numbers were relatively low in historic terms, in part because low interest rates made it easy for companies to borrow.

    Now, S&P Global forecasts that the 12-month trailing default rate for speculative-grade securities will jump from the current 2.5% to 4.5% by early 2024.

    “The era of low interest rates and pandemic-related government support programs helped keep companies afloat that may have otherwise had few other options,” S&P analysts said of their large-company data. “Now that interest rates are back to pre-Great Recession levels and pandemic support programs are largely over, we’re seeing a fresh uptick in a possible sign that companies are running out of time.”

    Yields on junk bonds have more than doubled from less than 4% in mid-2021, as measured by the Bloomberg US High Yield Index. The Fed has warned that lenders could further contract the supply of credit to businesses after recent turmoil in the banking sector.

    “Our general view is that we are going to see an increase in ‘hard restructurings’, driven by the combination of higher debt levels from the borrowing binge of Covid and rising interest rates. The triggers will be running out money and inability to refinance maturing debt,” said Bill Derrough, an investment banker at Moelis who advises clients across distressed situations. “Some companies have used every trick in the book and now have run out of tricks.”

    Companies that sell nonessential consumer items have been harder hit than other sectors as Americans curb their spending amid high inflation, S&P said. Plant-Based Pizza Boston, catalogue retailer AmeriMark Interactive and the Party City retail chain are among the recent casualties.

    Last month, the dress retailer David’s Bridal filed for bankruptcy for the second time in 5 years, and said it was seeking a buyer, days after informing state labor departments that it planned to lay off more than 9,000 employees nationwide. The 70-year-old company said its business was weighed down by “the post-covid environment and uncertain economic conditions.”

    Perhaps the most notable recent bankruptcy was that of long-struggling Bed Bath & Beyond, which filed for bankruptcy in late April, got a boost from the wave of consumer spending during the pandemic — when Americans spent more time at home. But when the economic climate shifted and stubbornly high inflation reduced discretionary purchases, the retailer’s fortunes tumbled.

    Recent filings make clear how some large, indebted companies were clobbered by the end of easy money. A Vice Media bankruptcy filing last week disclosed that the company had been cash flow negative for several years, forcing it to borrow heavily to fund operations. As interest rates rose, it became costlier for Vice to refinance those loans. For a delightful read on the collapse of the faux-woke media empire, which at one point was valued by idiots at almost $6 billion, read the following FT report.

    Turmoil in the banking business in March also contributed to a small rise in bankruptcy filings in that sector this year, S&P said. The most notable filing was SVB Financial Group, the parent company of Silicon Valley Bank, which collapsed after a run on the bank’s deposits.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 18:00

  • Breakthrough On Debt Deal Would Raise Limit, Cap Spending For Two Years – But Will Freedom Caucus Accept?
    Breakthrough On Debt Deal Would Raise Limit, Cap Spending For Two Years – But Will Freedom Caucus Accept?

    With the X-date for potential US default now estimated at June 5, House GOP and White House negotiators appear to be settling on an agreement to raise the debt limit and cap federal spending for two years, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the discussions.

    MarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images, iStockphoto

    That said, while the two sides have whittled down their differences over the past several days, the details are tentative, and a final agreement is not yet in sight. The two sides have yet to agree on the amount of the cap, however under the emerging agreement, defense spending would be allowed to rise 3% next year, which is in line with President Biden’s budget request.

    “We’re making progress and our goal is to make sure that we get a deal because default is unacceptable,” said Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo, who warned CNN that payments to Social Security beneficiaries, veterans and others would be delayed in the event of a default. “The president has committed to making sure that we have good-faith negotiations with the Republicans to reach a deal because the alternative is catastrophic for all Americans.”

    The emerging deal would also include a measure to upgrade the nation’s electric grid to be able to handle the massive requirements of renewable energy, a key goal for Democrats, while speeding up permits for pipelines and other fossil fuel projects demanded by Republicans.

    The deal would also cut $10 billion from an $80 billion increase for the IRS that the Biden administration included in the Inflation Reduction Act, after Republicans warned of a ‘wave’ of audits led by new agents. Democrats say the increase will pay for itself via less tax cheating.

    As Rabobank notes, the deal would cap just about everything aside from defense.

    How exactly ‘close’ is defined is unknown – earlier in the evening it was reported that Republicans still required more spending cuts worth USD 70 billion – and a temporary suspension of the debt limit might still be necessary.

    …

    In a note last week, our US strategist Philip Marey stated that a suspension of the debt limit is likely, but he also underscored that the risk is substantial that the X-date will pass without an agreement on anything, and hence that some payments would be missed. According to the Wall Street Journal, the administration is preparing a contingency plan, but supposedly it does not yet mention any prioritization of payments. It rather discusses how to deal with a breach administratively.

    As we noted earlier, putting this “deal” in context, the plan passed by the House GOP would reduce fiscal year ’24 spending by $130bn, or about 0.5% of GDP (setting aside the deficit saving from rescinding student debt forgiveness, which hasn’t been implemented yet and which may be struck down by the high court). At the other end, according to reports which indicate the White House may cap FY24 discretionary nondefense spending at FY23 levels would reduce spending by about 0.1% of GDP relative to a plausible baseline. So, the federal spending reduction for FY24 could range from 0.1% to 0.5% of GDP. The final “compromise” outcome – which may be announced as soon as Friday- will be a 0.2% spending cut.

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    Today’s daily update from Treasury showed that after a $25 billion benefits payment to Social Security, the Treasury’s cash balance dropped by $27 billion to $49.5 billion, the lowest since 2021.

    That means that net of roughly $80 billion in extraordinary measures (this number will have its weekly update Friday after the close), the Treasury now has approximately $140 billion in accessible cash. Which brings us to the good news: even net of the sizable cash drain on June 1 (just over $100 billion in scheduled payments) the Treasury is likely to retain a sufficient cash balance on Jun 1, the date which Janet Yellen has previously said was the X-Date, to extend operations for at least several days without a technical default.

    Will the Freedom Caucus accept the deal?

    Given that what’s taking shape will be far less than Republicans’ opening offer – which called for raising the debt ceiling through March in exchange for 10 years of spending caps, House conservatives appeared to already be balking at the current framework. On Thursday, the House Freedom Caucus sent a letter to Speaker Kevin McCarthy demanding that he stand his ground.

    Speaker of the House Rep. Kevin McCarthy speaks to the media at the US Capitol on April 26, 2023 in Washington, DC. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images, FILE

    “We know where our differences lie,” said McCarthy to reporters at the Capitol, adding that his team plans to work through the holiday weekend.

    “We do not have an agreement yet. We knew this would not be easy. It’s hard, but we’re working. And we’re gonna continue to work till we get this done,” he said.

    Jan Hatzius and Alec Phillips of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note to investors that odds were highest for an accord to be reached on Friday. “Negotiators appear to be closing in on an agreement.”

    Should a deal be reached soon, Tuesday is emerging as the likely day for a House vote. The Senate would then have to act quickly to send it to Biden’s desk before June 1, the date by which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said her department could run out of cash. 

    The following day sees a payment due to millions of Social Security beneficiaries, putting pressure on politicians to resolve the impasse.

    One of the negotiators, Rep. Garrett Graves (R-LA) described progress as “slow” on Thursday night, adding that the White House was holding firm against GOP demands to add work requirements to the eligibility for Medicaid and other social welfare programs.

    “We have a lot of hangups,” he said. “But that’s one of the bigger issues.”

    When Republican negotiator Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina was asked Thursday evening what he would tell investors about the progress of talks, he shot back “Glad the market’s closed.“

    On Wednesday, Fitch Ratings placed the US’s AAA credit rating on watch for a potential downgrade – which hasn’t happened since 2011, when Congress was at a similar impasse. According to the White House and the Treasury, Fitch’s move demonstrates the urgency of reaching a speedy solution to the stalemate, however McCarthy said that negotiators don’t need a ratings agency to convey the importance of getting this done.

    Meanwhile, it appears that the Treasury market feels a deal is nearly in hand.

    Spread between May 30 bill yield and June 6th bill yield

    Then again…

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 17:58

  • The End Of Dollar Supremacy
    The End Of Dollar Supremacy

    Authored by John Rapley via UnHerd.com,

    The West’s imperial lifecycle is drawing to a close…

    In January 1999, in a Washington of bustling bars and soaring stock markets, Bill Clinton rose to deliver his State of the Union address. America was so untroubled by threat or misfortune that it had spent the previous year debating the precise significance of fellatio. But Clinton, who had survived the scandal, exuded unshakeable personal and civilisational self-confidence. Declaring “a new dawn for America” and a future of “limitless possibility”, he called on Congress to decide how to spend all the record surpluses the government was soon going to enjoy. America’s only inconvenience, it seemed, was too much money. Today, as America struggles to support a crumbling dollar, marshal allies against Russia, ward off a rising China, it’s easy to forget that barely two decades ago it strode the planet like a colossus.

    But pride before a fall has an ancient lineage, and only the arrogance of the historical present could treat American imperial decline as a novel phenomenon, let alone mere metaphor. Some 16 centuries before Clinton, in an uncannily similar setting of domes and colonnades, a Roman orator stood before the imperial Senate to deliver an equally triumphal speech. It was 1 January 399, inauguration day for the latest in a millennium-old line of consuls, the most prestigious Roman office. This year’s candidate was Flavius Mallius Theodorus. After rising to praise his audience — “here I see gathered all the brilliance of the world” — he went on to proclaim the dawn of a new Golden Age, celebrating the unparalleled prosperity of the Empire.

    Rome’s rapid comeuppance is now a historical parable that America can learn from in real-time. Because the rhetoric of Clinton and his ancient predecessor was spoken from atop the crest of the same wave: an identical process of rise and decline which Peter Heather and I, in our new book, call “the imperial lifecycle”. Empires grow rich and powerful and attain supremacy through the economic exploitation of their colonial periphery. But in the process, they inadvertently spur the economic development of that same periphery until it can roll back and ultimately displace its overlord.

    America has never thought of itself as an empire, mainly because with the exception of the few islands in the Pacific and Caribbean, it has never accumulated a large network of overseas territories. But this modern European model, in which colonies were (and in a few cases, still are) administered by governors who answered directly to the imperial capital, was but one of many. The late Roman Empire, for instance, functioned as an “inside-out” empire — effectively run from the provinces, with Rome serving more as a spiritual than administrative capital. What held it all together was the shared culture of the provincial nobility that ran it, most of whom has provincial origins but had been socialised into what Peter Heather has called the imperial culture of “Latin, towns and togas”.

    The American Empire — or more accurately the American-led Western empire — mirrors this confederal model, with an updated cultural-political glue that we might call “neoliberalism, Nato and denim”. Under this regime, the nation-state was primary, borders were inviolable, relatively open trade and capital movement prevailed, governing elites  were committed to liberal principles, and bureaucracy was based on increasingly standardised education systems (with economics training assuming an increasingly central role as the century progressed). But since its establishment in 1944 at the Bretton Woods conference, its fundamental economic model has been in the timeless imperial mould: exploitation of the periphery to the benefit of the imperial core.

    The great wave of decolonisation that followed the war was meant to end that. But the Bretton Woods system, which created a trading regime that favoured industrial over primary producers and enshrined the dollar as the global reserve currency, ensured that the net flow of financial resources continued to move from developing countries to developed ones. Even when the economies of the newly-independent states grew, those of the G7 economies and their partners grew more. And while the treaty arrangements that cemented this system were periodically updated at international summits, even then the US and its main trading partners would typically draft a deal for sign-off by everyone else. As a result, the gap between rich and poor countries grew bigger than ever.

    Clinton was speaking at the all-time peak of this American imperial order. Two years earlier, a financial crisis that had begun in Asia had ricocheted across the developing world. And when protesters filled streets and governments across the Global South collapsed, the rich in developing countries panicked and sent their money into the safe haven of US Treasury paper. That influx of cash sent the late Nineties US economy into overdrive, creating the abundance that Clinton took to be endless.

    In fact, as he was speaking, the overall flow of global capital had already begun moving the other way. By this time, quietly but steadily, developing countries like China and India had shaken off the torpor of earlier decades and were starting to grow in leaps and bounds. The brief recessions induced in developing countries by the Asian Crisis and the consequent boom in the West obscured the fact that the really dynamic economies of the world were now in what was called the Third World. Once the protests died down and normal business resumed there, investors in the developing world — followed by fund-managers in Western countries — sent their money back to the growing economies of the global periphery.

    In the Roman Empire, peripheral states developed the political and military capacity to end Roman domination by force. In the modern case, the conflict was fought through diplomatic, economic and political channels. The year of Clinton’s panegyric now looks pivotal — not only for the changing capital winds, but because of what happened at that year’s World Trade Organization summit in Seattle. After decades in which they’d more or less signed off on done-and-dusted deals, delegations from some of the big developing countries got together, refused to go along and brought the negotiations to a halt. As their diplomatic and political capacity rose to match their economic heft, developing countries were now demanding, and getting, better deals.

    The Third World was rising, and it quickly showed in the economic data. On the eve of the millennium, the cusp of its supremacy — a supremacy no other empire in history had come remotely close to matching — the West accounted for four-fifths of the global economy. Today, that’s down to three-fifths, and falling. The fastest-growing economies in the world are now all in the old periphery; the worst-performing economies are disproportionately in the West. These are the economic trends that have created our present landscape of superpower conflict — most saliently between America and China. A once-mighty empire is now challenged and feels embattled. Taken aback by the refusal of so many developing countries to join in isolating Russia, the West is now waking up to the reality of the emerging, polycentric and fluid global order.

    These trends are only set to continue. But this is where America and Rome diverge. The Roman Empire existed at a time where there was one fixed factor of production: land. The economy was therefore necessarily steady-state and overwhelmingly agricultural. For the periphery to rise, the core had to fall, as the barbarian invaders seized physical Roman real estate. But in the modern world, where continued technological progress means economies can keep moving forward, if more slowly, decline may only need to be relative. The West can continue to grow, and to play a pre-eminent role in global governance.

    But meek acceptance isn’t what builds empires in the first place. The danger is that, obsessed with past glories and tempted by a desire to turn back the clock, Western countries attempt to restore their greatness. Since its own imperial marginalisation, Britain has been possessed by a manic and counter-productive declinism, most recently responding to the 2008 crash with a programme of austerity that has sunk its economy into what may become a permanent decay. America’s interminable annual wranglings over debt ceilings could, if they continue, diminish the attractiveness of the dollar, at a time when developing countries are looking for alternatives.

    The fate of the West hangs in the balance, and it must stop drawing the wrong lessons from Roman history, not the least of which is a stubborn refusal to accept a diminished role in its world. After all, the Roman Empire might have survived had it not weakened itself with wars of choice on its ascendant Persian rival. By finding a way to coexist peacefully with its own rival China, however uncomfortable that may be, the US could do itself and the world a favour.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 17:40

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May 26

Today’s News 26th May 2023

  • Lukashenko Confirms Russian Tactical Nukes Already Being Transferred To Belarus
    Lukashenko Confirms Russian Tactical Nukes Already Being Transferred To Belarus

    Despite urgent warnings from US and Western allies, Moscow is moving forward with plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus. The two longtime allies which form what they call a ‘union state’ signed a deal Thursday to formalize deployment of Russian nukes on Belarusian soil. All of this comes dangerously as Ukraine’s cross-border sabotage attacks on Russian territory have clearly escalated. 

    Alarmingly for Ukraine and its NATO backers, Belarus’ president Alexander Lukashenko said soon after the deal was signed that the transfer of non-strategic nuclear weapons from Russia to Belarus is already underway.

    Iskander tactical missile system

    And Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said in Minsk alongside Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu: “Deployment of nonstrategic nuclear weapons is an effective response to the aggressive policy of countries unfriendly to us,” according to regional media.

    Additionally Shoigu stated that “In the context of an extremely sharp escalation of threats on the western borders of Russia and Belarus, a decision was made to take countermeasures in the military-nuclear sphere.”

    Starting months ago international reports said that Russian tactical nukes would soon be in Belarus, but there were conflicting reports over whether it had actually happened yet. 

    Additionally, as AP highlights, “Also unclear is how many nuclear weapons would be kept in Belarus. The U.S. government believes Russia has about 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons, which include bombs that can be carried by aircraft, warheads for short-range missiles and artillery rounds.”

    All of this was put in motion starting in late March, when Russian President Vladimir Putin first announced that Minsk requested the presence of Russian tactical nukes. According to TASS at the time, “As the Russian leader indicated, the construction of storage facilities for tactical nuclear weapons will be completed in Belarus by July 1.”

    “Moscow has already provided Minsk with Iskander tactical missile systems capable of carrying nuclear weapons and has helped Minsk to re-equip its military aircraft to carry specialized weapons,” TASS noted in its prior reporting. “As well, Belarusian missile crews and pilots have undergone training in Russia.”

    NATO has called the move “dangerous and irresponsible” – while EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell previously said, “Belarus hosting Russian nuclear weapons would mean an irresponsible escalation & threat to European security. Belarus can still stop it, it is their choice. The EU stands ready to respond with further sanctions.” Currently the EU is preparing an 11th round of anti-Russia sanctions. 

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    But it must be recalled that the Unites States stations tactical nuclear weapons in places like Turkey as well some NATO locations in Europe. Turkey is merely across the Black Sea from Russia. This NATO ‘nuclear sharing’ program has been a reality for decades.

    Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu additionally explained on Thursday that NATO is using the Ukraine crisis to build up its military infrastructure there:

    “NATO is using the Ukrainian crisis as a pretext for building up its groups. Another stage of the alliance’s expansion has been launched. Military infrastructure is being modernized in Eastern and Central Europe, strike weapons are being deployed, and the scale and intensity of joint exercises are increasing,” Shoigu said at a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Council of Defense Ministers.

    He also highlighted “the growing aggressive rhetoric and joint ‘nuclear missions’ by NATO countries in Eastern Europe for practicing the use of nuclear weapons delivery systems, as well as the upgrading of the components of the US global missile defense system.”

    This seems an ‘answer’ to the Western allies in terms of the rationale for proceeding with tactical nukes in Belarus.

    But for some important context…

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 02:45

  • Thanks To Sanctions, The US Is Losing Its Grip On The Middle East
    Thanks To Sanctions, The US Is Losing Its Grip On The Middle East

    Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

    Last Friday, members of the Arab League welcomed the Syrian regime back to the organization. Representatives from several Arab member states shook Syrian leader Assad’s hand and gave him, a “warm” reception according to several news outlets. Syria was suspended from the league in 2011, but on May 7 in Cairo the league agreed to reinstate the Assad regime. 

    This represents a reversal from years of isolation placed on the regime, and a break with US policy which remains staunchly opposed to Assad. Indeed, the League’s rapprochement with Assad should be seen as a repudiation of US policy, and especially as a sign of how Washington’s influence among Leage members—the most powerful of which are Saudi Arabia and Egypt—has waned.

    Moreover, this is just the latest bad news for Washington’s influence in the region coming mere weeks after Iran and Saudi Arabia reestablished diplomatic relations.

    In both cases, we find regimes that Washington had sought to isolate and sanction, but both states have instead been expanding their relations with other states in the region with the help of China. Meanwhile, both Beijing and Riyadh have increased their ties with Russia. These development help illustrate how growing US attempt to impose—or threaten to impose—hard line sanctions against a growing number of regimes has only accelerated a global movement away from the US dollar and away from Washington’s orbit. 

    Saudi Arabia Increasing Ties with Iran and Syria

    In March of this year, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced a resumption of relations following a deal brokered by China. The Saudi regime—a longtime Washington ally—had apparently not told the Biden administration of the meetings with Iran and China. Shortly after the agreement was announced, the administration dispatched CIA Director William Burns to Saudi Arabia where he reportedly “expressed frustration with the Saudis,” telling “Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that the U.S. has felt blindsided by Riyadh’s rapprochement with Iran and Syria.”

    Although the White House now claims to be supportive of the new agreement between Riyadh and Tehran, this support is really just an admission that there’s not much Washington can do about it. After all, for decades, US policy has been to isolate Tehran and in recent years, Washington has imposed harsh sanctions, including Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure campaign” designed to cripple Iran even more. The Biden administration took no significant steps to reverse the Trump position. The Saudi regime’s newfound openness to Iran is thus contrary to US policy, and it is not plausible that Washington is in any way pleased with the change. 

    From Washington’s perspective, the situation got even worse this month when the Arab League readmitted Syria, also apparently without consulting Washington. Since 2011, the US has imposed draconian sanctions on Syrian in a manner similar to Iran. Syria’s newfound reintegration into the Arab League is thus also contrary to the US’s ongoing efforts to isolate the Assad regime which the US has repeatedly claimed must by subjected to “regime change.” 

    Growing Ties with Russia

    New overtures by the Saudis toward both Syria and Iran also run afoul of Washington because both Iran and Syria are important allies of Moscow. With the US now inflicting harsh sanctions on the Russian regime, anything that helps Damascus and Tehran has the potential to help Moscow as well. 

    Both the Saudis and the Chinese have shown growing efforts to forge ties directly with the Russian regime as well. At a Chinese-Russian summit in February 2022, both regimes stated they plan to forge even closer ties. This has apparently not changed even after a year of heightened hostilities from the US and NATO aimed at Moscow. In fact, it is likely that Russia-China relations are closer than they’ve ever been in the post-Soviet era. This has clearly been a problem for Washington as China continues to provide an important market for Russian exports in the face of US sanctions. Both states have also made efforts to move away from the US dollar and settle international trade in other currencies. 

    This might all be dismissed as the scheming of foreign powers that were never reliable “partners” or allies of the US in the first place. But Saudi Arabia is another matter, and the Saudis are apparently willing to play nice with the Russians, Chinese, and other members of the latest supposed “Axis of Evil.” 

    The Saudi regime has grown closer to Moscow in the wake of US sanctions against Russia. For example, “Saudi Arabia and the UAE, traditional Middle Eastern allies of the United States, are not shying away from importing, storing, trading, or re-exporting Russian fuels despite American efforts to persuade them to join a crackdown on Russian attempts to evade the Western sanctions on its oil.”

    In other words, US efforts to get the Arab world to isolate Russia are failing, and Russian ties with the Middle East are actually improving. 

    This can be seen in the fact that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)—which is dominated by its largest producer, Saudi Arabia—has shown no interest in helping the US in its sanctions war against Russia. Instead, OPEC has cut production levels to raise oil prices, which benefits Moscow. The US has opposed these cuts, and now some anti-Russia factions in the US are exploring ways to punish OPEC for its lack of enthusiasm in cooperating with US efforts against Russia. 

    At this point, a trend has clearly emerged: as the US further attempts to tighten its geopolitical grip on the global economy through economic sanctions, fewer and fewer states worldwide appear interested in playing along. 

    Indeed, the spread of US sanctions provides good reason for other regimes to increase efforts to forge close ties with other regimes as insurance against becoming the victims of US policy. After all, the US has been quite free and easy with threatening “uncooperative” countries with so-called secondary sanctions as a punishment for doing business with states like Syria and Russia. The US has been explicit in this and in February, as CNN reported at the time, “the United States is ramping up efforts to choke off Russia’s economy and it has set its sight on the Middle East. . . . A top US Treasury official arrived in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Monday to warn the regional business hub that helping Moscow evade sanctions wouldn’t be without consequences.” China had already been “warned” in a similar fashion. 

    Yet, it appears that the US’s ongoing sanctions war against a growing percentage of the world population is having the opposite of its intended effect. The US threatens to sanction Saudi Arabia and China, and in return, both countries become even more willing to seek cooperation with some of the regimes Washington has attacked the most.

    While Washington pursued a divide-and-conquer strategy throughout the Middle East, Beijing brokers deals to increase regional stability. While the US ratchets up efforts to isolate its many enemies, the Chinese, the Saudis, the Arab League, and OPEC all shrug and look to increasing international communication and trade.  The Washington foreign policy establishment shows few signs that it is even noticing. The US regimes foreign policy “tool box” continues to be centered on sanctions, violence, and making demands on both its allies and its professed enemies. The rest of the world is moving on, however, and Washington may be among the last to accept the new reality.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/26/2023 – 02:00

  • Rein In The FBI: Put An End To Their Gestapo Tactics
    Rein In The FBI: Put An End To Their Gestapo Tactics

    Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “One of the creeping hands of totalitarianism running through the democracy is the Federal Bureau of Investigation… Because why does the FBI do all this? To scare the hell out of people… They work for the establishment and the corporations and the politicos to keep things as they are. And they want to frighten and chill the people who are trying to change things.”

    – Howard Zinn, historian

    Power corrupts. We know this.

    In fact, we know this from experience learned the hard way at the hands of our own government.

    So why is anyone surprised to learn that the FBI, one of the most power-hungry and corrupt agencies within the police state’s vast complex of power-hungry and corrupt agencies, misused a massive government surveillance database more than 300,000 times in order to target American citizens?

    This is how the government operates, after all.

    First, they seek out extraordinary powers acquired in the wake of some national crisis—in this case, warrantless surveillance powers intended to help the government spy on foreign targets suspected of engaging in terrorism—and then they use those powers against the American people.

    According to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, the FBI repeatedly misused Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act in order to spy on the communications of two vastly disparate groups of Americans: those involved in the George Floyd protests and those who may have taken part in the Jan. 6, 2021, protests at the Capitol.

    This is par for the course for the FBI, whose modus operandi has historically been to “expose, disrupt, misdirect, discredit, or otherwise neutralize” perceived threats to the government’s power.

    Indeed, the FBI has a long history of persecuting, prosecuting and generally harassing activists, politicians, and cultural figures.

    Back in the 1950s and ‘60s, the FBI’s targets were civil rights activists, those suspected of having Communist ties, and anti-war activists. In more recent decades, the FBI has expanded its reach to target so-called domestic extremists, environmental activists, and those who oppose the police state.

    In 2019, President Trump promised to give the FBI “whatever they need” to investigate and disrupt hate crimes and domestic terrorism, without any apparent thought for the Constitution’s prohibitions on such overreach.

    That misguided pledge sheds a curious light on the FBI’s ongoing spree of SWAT team raids, surveillance, disinformation campaigns, fear-mongering, paranoia, and strong-arm tactics meted out to dissidents on both the right and the left.

    Yet while these overreaching, heavy-handed lessons in how to rule by force have become standard operating procedure for a government that communicates with its citizenry primarily through the language of brutality, intimidation and fear, none of this is new.

    Indeed, the FBI’s love affair with totalitarianism can be traced back to the Nazi police state.

    As historian Robert Gellately recounts, the Nazi police state was so admired for its efficiency and order by the world powers of the day that in the decades after World War II, the FBI, along with other government agencies, aggressively recruited at least a thousand Nazis, including some of Hitler’s highest henchmen.

    Since then, U.S. government agencies—the FBI, CIA and the military—have fully embraced many of the Nazi’s well-honed policing tactics, and used them repeatedly against American citizens.

    With every passing day, the United States government borrows yet another leaf from Nazi Germany’s playbook: Secret police. Secret courts. Secret government agencies. Surveillance. Censorship. Intimidation. Harassment. Torture. Brutality. Widespread corruption. Entrapment. Indoctrination. Indefinite detention.

    These are not tactics used by constitutional republics, where the rule of law and the rights of the citizenry reign supreme. Rather, they are the hallmarks of authoritarian regimes, where secret police control the populace through intimidation, fear and official lawlessness on the part of government agents.

    Consider the extent to which the FBI’s far-reaching powers to surveil, detain, interrogate, investigate, prosecute, punish, police and generally act as a law unto themselves resemble those of their Nazi cousins, the Gestapo.

    Just like the Gestapo, the FBI has vast resources, vast investigatory powers, and vast discretion to determine who is an enemy of the state.

    Much like the Gestapo spied on mail and phone calls, FBI agents have carte blanche access to the citizenry’s most personal information.

    Much like the Gestapo’s sophisticated surveillance programs, the FBI’s spying capabilities can delve into Americans’ most intimate details (and allow local police to do so, as well).

    Much like the Gestapo’s ability to profile based on race and religion, and its assumption of guilt by association, the FBI’s approach to pre-crime allows it to profile Americans based on a broad range of characteristics including race and religion.

    Much like the Gestapo’s power to render anyone an enemy of the state, the FBI has the power to label anyone a domestic terrorist.

    Much like the Gestapo infiltrated communities in order to spy on the German citizenry, the FBI routinely infiltrates political and religious groups, as well as businesses.

    Just as the Gestapo united and militarized Germany’s police forces into a national police force, America’s police forces have largely been federalized and turned into a national police force.

    Just as the Gestapo carried out entrapment operations, the FBI has become a master in the art of entrapment.

    Just as the Gestapo’s secret files on political leaders were used to intimidate and coerce, the FBI’s attempts to target and spy on anyone suspected of “anti-government” sentiment have been similarly abused.

    The Gestapo became the terror of the Third Reich by creating a sophisticated surveillance and law enforcement system that relied for its success on the cooperation of the military, the police, the intelligence community, neighborhood watchdogs, government workers for the post office and railroads, ordinary civil servants, and a nation of snitches inclined to report “rumors, deviant behavior, or even just loose talk.”

    Likewise, as countless documents make clear, the FBI has had no qualms about using its extensive powers in order to blackmail politicians, spy on celebrities and high-ranking government officials, and intimidate and attempt to discredit dissidents of all stripes.

    In fact, borrowing heavily from the Gestapo, between 1956 and 1971, the FBI conducted an intensive domestic intelligence program, termed COINTELPRO, intended to neutralize domestic political dissidents. As Congressman Steve Cohen explains, “COINTELPRO was set up to surveil and disrupt groups and movements that the FBI found threatening… many groups, including anti-war, student, and environmental activists, and the New Left were harassed, infiltrated, falsely accused of criminal activity          .”

    Sound familiar? The more things change, the more they stay the same.

    Those targeted by the FBI under COINTELPRO for its intimidation, surveillance and smear campaigns included: Martin Luther King Jr., Malcom X, the Black Panther Party, Billie Holiday, Emma Goldman, Aretha Franklin, Charlie Chaplin, Ernest Hemingway, Felix Frankfurter, John Lennon, and hundreds more.

    The Church Committee, the Senate task force charged with investigating COINTELPRO abuses in 1975, denounced the government’s abuses:

    “Too many people have been spied upon by too many Government agencies and too much information has been collected. The Government has often undertaken the secret surveillance of citizens on the basis of their political beliefs, even when those beliefs posed no threat of violence or illegal acts on behalf of a hostile foreign power.”

    The report continued:

    “Groups and individuals have been harassed and disrupted because of their political views and their lifestyles. Investigations have been based upon vague standards whose breadth made excessive collection inevitable. Unsavory and vicious tactics have been employed—including anonymous attempts to break up marriages, disrupt meetings, ostracize persons from their professions, and provoke target groups into rivalries that might result in deaths. Intelligence agencies have served the political and personal objectives of presidents and other high officials.”

    Whether 50 years ago or in the present day, the treatment being doled out by the government’s lethal enforcers has remained consistent, no matter the threat.

    The FBI’s laundry list of crimes against the American people includes surveillance, disinformation, blackmail, entrapment, intimidation tactics, harassment and indoctrination, governmental overreach, abuse, misconduct, trespassing, enabling criminal activity, and damaging private property, and that’s just based on what we know.

    Whether the FBI is planting undercover agents in churches, synagogues and mosques; issuing fake emergency letters to gain access to Americans’ phone records; using intimidation tactics to silence Americans who are critical of the government; recruiting high school students to spy on and report fellow students who show signs of being future terrorists; or persuading impressionable individuals to plot acts of terror and then entrapping them, the overall impression of the nation’s secret police force is that of a well-dressed thug, flexing its muscles and doing the boss’ dirty work of ensuring compliance, keeping tabs on potential dissidents, and punishing those who dare to challenge the status quo.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, it’s time to rein in the Federal Bureau of Intimidation’s war on political freedom.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 23:40

  • Antibiotic-Resistant Bugs Will Kill As Many As Cancer By 2050; UN Report
    Antibiotic-Resistant Bugs Will Kill As Many As Cancer By 2050; UN Report

    Deaths from drug-resistant infections are set to skyrocket by 2050, according to the UN 2023 report ‘Bracing for Superbugs: Strengthening environmental action in the One Health response to antimicrobial resistance.’

    Unless drastic action is taken to tackle the problem, it could also lead to a GDP shortfall of $3.4 trillion annually in the next decade and push 24 more people into extreme poverty.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to recent estimates, in 2019, 1.27 million deaths were directly attributed to drug-resistant infections globally, while 4.95 million deaths were linked with bacterial AMR. That’s now well above the death counts of major killers HIV/AIDS and malaria, which were estimated to have claimed the lives of 860,000 and 640,000, respectively, that year. As the following chart shows, antibiotic-resistant infections could kill as many as 10 million people in just three decades – on par with the 2020 death toll from cancer.

    Infographic: Deaths From Drug-Resistant Infections Set To Skyrocket | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Although the risks of AMR will impact people worldwide, Low-Income Countries (LICs) and Lower-Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) are expected to see the highest death tolls. By region, Asia is predicted to see the highest number of AMR-related deaths per 10,000 population in 2050 (4,730,000), followed by Africa (4,150,000), Latin America (392,000), Europe (390,000), North America (317,000) and Oceania (22,000).

    According to the report, AMR also exacerbates inequalities within societies and so groups including women, children, migrants, refugees, people employed in sectors such as agriculture or healthcare, as well as those living in poverty will be particularly vulnerable to drug-resistant infections.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 23:20

  • Legislation To Block Biden's ATF Rule Stalls As Millions Set To Become Felons Overnight 
    Legislation To Block Biden’s ATF Rule Stalls As Millions Set To Become Felons Overnight 

    Submitted by Gun Owners of America,

    Most Americans are unaware that a new rule from President Biden’s ATF is less than one week away from turning millions of fellow citizens into felons overnight. 

    The new rule targets firearms that utilize a brace, a device originally designed to aid disabled veterans in shooting guns without assistance. These braces were approved for sale and use by ATF themselves. 

    An estimated 40 million of these firearms are owned by law-abiding citizens. Those citizens, unless aware of the ATF’s rule change, will become felons on June 1st – unless the House votes on H. J. Res. 44 to overturn the ban using the Congressional Review Act. 

    This process allows both chambers of Congress to pass a resolution of disapproval to nullify the regulation, and a vote in the Senate would not be subject to filibuster rules. 

    The Republican-controlled House has already cleared the resolution through committee. Currently, there are 189 cosponsors of the bill. But for some reason, it is not scheduled a vote before Congress goes into recess or the rule goes into effect. 

    This vote is extremely important because it would force members of the Senate, with vulnerable Democrats in gun-friendly states, to go on the record while answering this question: will you vote to allow this administration to turn many of your constituents into felons overnight? 

    Even though the CRA likely would be vetoed by the President, getting these members of Congress on record holds them accountable to their constituents. It would look ridiculous if they voted no on an issue like this which affects such a large swath of the population, but then turned around and preached about being “pro-gun.” 

    Ben from GOA explains why the ATF’s ‘free’ tax stamp for your braced firearms isn’t exactly free… 

    This is where we need your help. 

    You can call your elected officials at (202) 224-3121.

    Tell them to demand that your representative tell Speaker McCarthy to schedule a vote for this important issue that impacts millions of Americans. 

    And if they aren’t already, let them know to support S.J. RES. 20 if they’re in the Senate & H.J. RES. 20 if they’re in the House of Representatives 

    *    *    *

    We’ll hold the line for you in Washington. We are No Compromise. Join the Fight Now.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 23:00

  • Iowa Poll: Trump Holds 3-to-1 Lead Over DeSantis
    Iowa Poll: Trump Holds 3-to-1 Lead Over DeSantis

    Authored by Jake Bevan via RealClear Wire,

    An abortive rally and an expanding field of challengers hasn’t hurt Donald Trump’s standing in Iowa, according to a new poll from Emerson College. In results released Thursday morning, 62% of Republican voters indicated they would choose Trump as the party’s nominee, giving the former president a 3-to-1 margin over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who clocked in at 20%. Mike Pence and Nikki Haley are tied for third with 5%. 

    DeSantis, who formally declared his run Wednesday during a Twitter livestream with Elon Musk, has long been considered the most significant challenger to Trump for the GOP nomination, but the gap between the two has been expanding. Although the governor made a pair of widely covered visits to Iowa earlier this month, any corresponding boost in the polls has yet to materialize. The Emerson survey places him about on par with the current RCP national average. 

    Nonetheless, the DeSantis campaign may have exposed a fault line within the GOP’s base. The new poll found that although Trump was preferred by Republican voters across the board, he was especially favored by those under the age of 35 (75%) and without a college degree (70%). DeSantis is much closer among Republicans with a postgraduate degree. 

    The poll found that either candidate would beat President Biden handily in Iowa if the election were held today. A rematch between Trump and Biden shows a 49%-38% Trump lead in the Hawkeye State, with 10% voting third party and 6% undecided. DeSantis leads Biden 45%-38%. 

    Despite this — and despite a meager 35% job approval rating in the state — Iowa Democrats remain united behind Biden. Emerson found 69% of them ready to support his reelection in 2024. Environmentalist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. comes in a distant second at 11%. 

    The survey also showed that the top concern among Iowans is the economy, with 31% of all voters citing it as the most important issue facing their state. This was followed by education (15%), “threats to democracy” (15%), immigration (10%), abortion access (9%), and health care (8%).

    Election integrity continues to be an especially divisive issue. Although the majority of those polled stated that Joe Biden’s 2020 victory was legitimate, 46% of Iowa voters — including 43% of independents — said it was not.  There was, predictably, a split along party lines: 91% of Democrats believe the election results to be sound, and 78% of Republicans do not. 

    Iowans are also anxious for their state’s caucus to retain its first-in-the-nation status, a roughly 50-year-old tradition that has cemented Iowa as a cornerstone of the American political landscape and transformed the sparsely populated, rural state into a kind of presidential power broker. Its status has been threatened this year following a move by Democrats to swap Iowa with South Carolina in their primary lineup. 

    About three-fourths of voters found it “very” (40%) or “somewhat” (34%) important that Iowa keep its perch as first in the nation. Republicans were particularly animated by the issue, with 86% saying it was important. 

    Voters in Iowa are also divided, though less informed, when it comes to the looming prospect of America’s first-ever default on its national debt. Half of them (49%) are against raising the debt ceiling, compared to 36% in favor, with 16% unsure. 

    The one area where Iowans from both parties unequivocally agreed?  The need for televised presidential debates. A whopping 92% of all caucus voters found that participation in debates was important prior to making a decision. Trump has cited his poll numbers as proof that he need not debate with any of his party’s numerous upstart candidates. Iowans do not agree. 

    Emerson’s poll was conducted May 19-23 among 1,064 registered voters. The margin of error is roughly 2.9 percentage points.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 22:20

  • Who Made The Most US Unicorn Acquisitions Since 1997?
    Who Made The Most US Unicorn Acquisitions Since 1997?

    The elusive unicorn is no longer a myth in the U.S. startup world, with over a thousand private startups reaching a $1 billion valuation in the last 25 years.

    While some of these startups eventually go public and go on to become household names, it’s also common for founders to exit through mergers and acquisitions (M&A), by selling their startup to another organization. In fact, over half of the 1,110 unicorns in the U.S. have made some sort of an exit—either through an IPO, a direct listing, a SPAC or an acquisition—since 1997.

    Ilya Strebulaev, professor of finance and private equity at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, brings us this visualization featuring the companies that acquired the most unicorns over the last 25 years.

    Strebulaev’s database lists 137 private and public companies along with PE firms who’ve acquired at least one unicorn since 1997, totaling 177 acquisitions.

    The Biggest U.S. Unicorn Acquirers

    In total, 27 companies have acquired two or more unicorns, accounting for nearly 38% of all acquisitions. 110 companies have acquired just one unicorn.

    Company/ PE Group Acquired
    Meta 5
    Cisco 4
    Alphabet 4
    Amazon 3
    Nortel Networks 3
    Bristol-Myers Squibb 3
    Johnson & Johnson 3
    Merck & Co. 3
    AT&T 3
    Recruit Holdings 2
    IBM 2
    Microsoft 2
    Thoma Bravo 2
    Headspace Health 2
    Allergan 2
    Qualcomm 2
    Rakuten 2
    Adobe Systems 2
    Eli Lilly 2
    Vista Equity 2
    Dell 2
    Uber 2
    Oracle 2
    Nestle 2
    Lucent Technologies 2
    Broadcom Corporation 2
    GlaxoSmithKline 2
    BlackBerry 2
    Searchlight Capital Partners 1
    Singtel 1
    Vmware 1
    Internet Capital Group 1
    Hellman & Friedman 1
    AppLovin 1
    Ciena Corporation 1
    Redback Networks 1
    Aether Systems 1
    Fresenius Medical Care 1
    Electronic Arts 1
    Genentech 1
    Inktomi 1
    VistaJet 1
    Ariba 1
    Keurig Dr Pepper 1
    Fullscreen 1
    Sycamore Networks 1
    Novartis 1
    TP ICAP 1
    eBay 1
    DoveBid 1
    McKesson 1
    IG Group 1
    Empower Retirement 1
    Dentsply Sirona 1
    Novo Nordisk 1
    Centocor 1
    Bausch Health 1
    Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma 1
    Medtronic 1
    Mubadala Investment Company 1
    Cint Group 1
    Qualtrics 1
    Rocket Companies 1
    Saudi Arabia’s PIF 1
    Prosus 1
    Cigna 1
    One Medical 1
    Exact Sciences 1
    Teladoc Health 1
    Ericsson 1
    SoFi 1
    PayPal Holdings 1
    Bayer 1
    Monsanto 1
    AMD 1
    Aurora 1
    Marvell International 1
    Bill.com 1
    ADC 1
    Dealertrack 1
    Cox Enterprises 1
    L’Oreal 1
    AstraZeneca 1
    Workday 1
    Iron Mountain 1
    Splunk 1
    Stonepeak 1
    American Express 1
    OfferUp 1
    VMware 1
    Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan 1
    Groupon 1
    Allstate Corporation 1
    LinkedIn 1
    SAP 1
    Mindbody 1
    Mallinckrodt 1
    Walmart 1
    GMT Communications 1
    Brightstar Capital 1
    Enterprise Holdings 1
    Healtheon Corporation 1
    Apple 1
    PetSmart 1
    Epiphany 1
    Rice Energy 1
    Unilever 1
    SBA Communications 1
    Bridgepoint Advisers 1
    Aurea 1
    Vector Capital 1
    FireEye 1
    Littlejohn & Co 1
    Alexion 1
    SoftBank Investment Advisers 1
    Francisco Partners 1
    Betfair Group 1
    Shift Technologies 1
    Hudson’s Bay 1
    Illumina 1
    Hewlett Packard Enterprise 1
    AbbVie 1
    Salesforce 1
    Hanergy 1
    Teleflex 1
    Twilio 1
    Okta 1
    Celgene 1
    NantCell 1
    VMware & EMC Corp 1
    Intuit 1
    Yahoo! 1
    Netmarble Games 1
    F5 Networks 1
    Roche 1
    Centerbridge Partners 1
    Total 177

    Meta, the parent company of Facebook, leads the pack with the most unicorn acquisitions in the U.S., purchasing five unicorns since its founding in 2008, including: Kustomer, WhatsApp, Instagram, CTRL-Labs, and Oculus VR.

    Notably, WhatsApp—which closed at a purchase price of $19 billion—was Meta’s most expensive acquisition yet, over nine times their next most expensive purchase, Oculus VR.

    Meanwhile, Alphabet (now the parent company of Google) and Cisco are tied in second place with four U.S. unicorn acquisitions each.

    • Alphabet: YouTube, Actifio, Nest Labs, Looker Data Sciences
    • Cisco: Cerent, Duo Security, AppDynamics, Jasper

    Unlike its Big Tech peers, Apple has only made the one U.S. unicorn acquisition: navigation company HopStop that helped bring public transit features to Apple Maps.

    Meanwhile, 56% of acquirers received venture capital funding of their own when they were private companies. This includes pack leaders like Meta, Cisco, Alphabet, and Amazon.

    Are Unicorn Acquisitions Slowing Down?

    Unicorn acquisitions are driven by two factors: the rate at which new unicorns are minted, and the climate for M&A transactions more broadly.

    To begin with, the minting of new unicorns is largely influenced by the venture funding environment. Funding opportunities increase when interest rates go down, which makes riskier, venture-scale ideas more enticing. During the last decade of persistently low interest rates up until 2022, unicorns flourished more than ever.

    Meanwhile, as tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta began seeing outsized profits in the 2010s, venture investors and their LPs looked to get in on the ground floor of tech startups that could emulate their success, often paying premium valuations for the chance. Simultaneously, big tech looked to acquire unicorns themselves, both to augment their business lines and to squash potential competitors.

    However, the era of “easy money” may have come to an end, and privately-held startups have seen valuations drop in recent years. This means that for the next little while—at least until monetary policy stops tightening—unicorns could become a rarer sight.

    Unicorn acquisitions may also see a similar fate. Persistent inflation and the government anti-trust push are just some of the other factors that have led to VC-backed startup acquisitions falling to their lowest quarterly levels in a decade. The more expensive the valuation, the harder to find a buyer, which means that some unicorns may even lose their $1 billion tag even when they do get acquired.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 22:00

  • Dangerous Global Shift From Dollar Driven By CCP And US Policy, Experts Say
    Dangerous Global Shift From Dollar Driven By CCP And US Policy, Experts Say

    Authored by Alex Newman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The trend away from the U.S. dollar in global trade and finance is accelerating rapidly as inflation persists, government debt levels explode, and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) roams the planet negotiating deals in other currencies.

    A Chinese bank employee counts US dollar bills at a bank counter in Nantong in China’s eastern Jiangsu province on Aug. 6, 2019. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

    The economic and political implications of the dollar’s possible loss of its prized status as global reserve currency are hard to overstate, according to experts.

    In fact, such a development—if and when it occurs—could prove catastrophic to U.S. consumers as their spending power evaporates, economists are warning amid debt-ceiling negotiations that have sent tremors around the world.

    Numerous analysts who spoke with The Epoch Times warned that the CCP and other U.S. adversaries were actively advancing the global effort to undermine the dollar.

    However, current and former U.S. lawmakers and policymakers also placed much of the blame on the Biden administration, U.S. government spending, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies.

    “The dollar is clearly at risk from foreign enemies who wish to challenge American power and domestic fools who believe the American credit card has no limits on spending,” explained Kevin Freeman, host of the Economic War Room and an authority on economic warfare.

    In comments to The Epoch Times, Freeman, who has briefed top U.S. military officials and policymakers, pointed to CCP strongman Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin as foreign adversaries seeking to undermine the dollar.

    The Saudis and numerous powers across Africa and Latin America have joined the “anti-dollar cabal” in recent months, he added.

    But the U.S. government deserves some of the blame for the developments, he said.

    “Sadly, we are making it easy for them with massive debt increases, an erratic foreign policy, and Washington’s arrogance that ignores the threat,” said Freeman, who also serves as a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy.

    Multiple members of Congress who spoke with The Epoch Times echoed the concerns about the Biden administration’s role in the accelerating shift away from the dollar.

    Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) pointed to the president himself. “Joe Biden’s war mongering, runaway inflation, and irresponsible spending sprees have threatened our currency’s value,” he said.

    A broad range of experts who spoke with The Epoch Times were divided on when or even if the U.S. dollar might lose its status as global reserve currency, and what that could mean for the U.S. economy and the American people.

    While many are warning of calamity, some even said there may be a “silver lining” to the U.S. dollar losing its global position.

    But regardless of when or how the saga plays out, the significance of the trends surrounding the U.S. dollar and its role in the world will be profound and highly disruptive at the very least, experts said.

    De-dollarization

    Thanks to the unchallengeable supremacy of the United States in the aftermath of World War II and the dollar’s nominal backing by gold at the time, and later its endorsement by oil exporters as the “petro-dollar,” the American currency has reigned supreme among currencies for over 70 years.

    The dollar still benefits from what is known as the “network effect” as well as the fact that U.S. capital markets are the deepest and most liquid in the world, experts told The Epoch Times.

    But if current trends away from the dollar and political instability continue, analysts say the American currency’s coveted status as the global reserve could be shaken or even lost for good. In fact, the process is already underway, some experts warned.

    The dollar’s share of global reserves just two decades ago was at about 75 percent, according to experts and analysts. Today, estimates suggest it is under 50 percent and shrinking fast.

    International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva (L) talks with BlackRock Chair and CEO Laurence D. Fink during a session at the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, on Jan. 23, 2020. (Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images)

    Speaking at the 2023 Milken Institute Global Conference, International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva highlighted the trend.

    “There has been a gradual shift away from the dollar,” she said, adding that the euro, the British pound, and the CCP’s yuan were all gaining ground.

    While Georgieva said she did not anticipate an imminent rise of a viable alternative as “we may migrate to central bank digital currencies massively,” that does not mean it will not come eventually.

    Non-Western central banks are also buying gold in record quantities, and analysts expect that demand to remain strong.

    “We think this trend of central bank buying is likely to continue amid heightened geopolitical risks and elevated inflation,” Swiss bank UBS said in a note.

    “In fact, the US decision to freeze Russian foreign exchange reserves in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine may have led to a long-term impact on the behavior of central banks.”

    Even traditional U.S. allies have been conducting deals in non-dollar currencies. In late March, for example, the French government completed its first cross-border liquified natural gas deal in Chinese yuan.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks with Chinese President Xi Jinping before an extended-format meeting of heads of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit (SCO) member states in Samarkand, Uzbekistan on Sept. 16, 2022. (Sputnik/Sergey Bobylev/Pool via Reuters)

    Also in March, authorities in Brazil—an economic powerhouse that historically has had close relations with the United States—also inked a deal with the CCP to trade in domestic currencies rather than the dollar.

    The trends are accelerating. According to a recent note by prominent currency analyst Stephen Jen at Eurizon SLJ, the dollar lost market share in 2022 at 10 times the pace as during the previous 20 years—a trend he says most analysts have missed.

    The speed at which this is happening is dramatic, too. “Adjusting for these price changes, the dollar, we calculate, has lost some 11 percent of its market share since 2016 and double that amount since 2008,” added Jen, who previously worked at Morgan Stanley.

    Much of the recent acceleration has to do with U.S. policy on Ukraine. “This erosion in the USD’s reserve currency status has accelerated precipitously since the start of the war in Ukraine,” noted Jen, pointing to “exceptional actions” against Russia that “startled” large reserve-holding countries.

    “What we witnessed in 2022 was sort of a ‘defund-the-global-police’ moment, whereby many reserve managers in the world disagreed with the conduct of both Russia and the US.”

    CCP Agenda

    Calls for a new global monetary system and reserve currency are not new, though. Even a decade ago, the CCP was promoting the idea through its propaganda machine.

    “What may also be included as a key part of an effective reform is the introduction of a new international reserve currency that is to be created to replace the dominant U.S. dollar, so that the international community could permanently stay away from the spillover of the intensifying domestic political turmoil in the United States,” Liu Chang wrote in an opinion piece for Xinhua, a CCP propaganda and intelligence-gathering operation.

    Analysts said the Xinhua editorial was undoubtedly approved by senior CCP officials and clearly reflected Beijing’s views.

    One benefit of such a policy would be to “encourage Washington to play a much more constructive role in addressing global affairs,” the CCP piece continued, calling for a “de-Americanized” so-called “new world order.”

    It was hardly the first time the CCP touted the idea. In a 2009 report by People’s Bank of China chief Zhou Xiaochuan dubbed “Reform the International Monetary System,” the CCP called for an “international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations and is able to remain stable in the long run.” The proposed global currency could be issued by the IMF, he said.

    In other words, almost 15 years ago, the highest echelons of power in Beijing were plotting a global currency to replace the dollar as the world reserve.

    When asked about the idea at a Council on Foreign Relations event, then-U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner shocked observers. “We’re actually quite open to that,” he said, causing the dollar to plunge.

    Many of the same policymakers from the Obama administration in 2009 who were supportive of the idea remain in positions of influence in the Biden administration today.

    And as The Epoch Times reported in 2021 amid the CCP virus crisis, the IMF has been moving in that direction with its special drawing rights, a sort of proto-global currency issued by the global financial institution.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 21:40

  • Alabama Lawmakers Advance 'What Is A Woman' Bill Defining Male, Female Sex
    Alabama Lawmakers Advance ‘What Is A Woman’ Bill Defining Male, Female Sex

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Alabama State Capitol stands in Montgomery, Ala., on May 15, 2019. (Julie Bennett/Getty Images)

    Alabama lawmakers advanced legislation on May 24 that seeks to define an individual’s sex based on their reproductive systems under state law.

    HB405 (pdf), known as the “What is a Woman” Act, was introduced by Republican state Rep. Susan DuBose.

    The House Health Committee voted along party lines to approve the bill, which now heads to the House floor for a vote.

    Under the legislation, a “female” is defined as an individual whose biological reproductive system is designed to produce ova, and a “male” is defined as an individual whose biological reproductive system is designed to fertilize the ova of a female.

    The legislation also defines “woman” and “girl” as human females, while the terms “man” and “boy” refer to human males.

    Elsewhere, the term “mother” is defined as a parent that is of the female sex under state law, while the term “father” is defined as a parent that is of the male sex.

    “When it comes to sex, ‘equal’ does not mean ‘same’ or ‘identical,’” the legislation states. “When it comes to sex, ‘separate’ is not inherently unequal.”

    The legislation includes an exception in the case of individuals who are born with a medically verifiable diagnosis of a “disorder or difference in sex development,” and such individuals will be provided legal protections and accommodations afforded under the federal Americans with Disabilities Act, according to the measure.

    Bill Protects Women, Lawmakers say

    “Notwithstanding any state law to the contrary, there are legitimate reasons to distinguish between the sexes with respect to athletics, prisons or other detention facilities, domestic violence shelters, rape crisis centers, locker rooms, bathrooms, and other areas where biology, safety, or privacy are implicated,” the measure states.

    “Policies and laws that distinguish between the sexes are subject to intermediate constitutional scrutiny, which forbids unfair discrimination against similarly-situated males and females but allows the law to distinguish between the sexes where such distinctions are substantially related to important governmental objectives,” it adds.

    The measure would also require any state department, school district, or public school to include an individual’s biological sex in all reporting of health, crime, economic, or other data.

    DuBose has argued that the bill is needed to prevent violence from occurring in “women’s spaces,” telling AL.com that such incidents are occurring in places “throughout our nation” that are open to transgender women, who are biological males.

    The Republican lawmaker stressed that the bill “is in no way trying to deny their existence, or their rights or their relevance or their importance,” referring to transgender women, adding that she believes the legislation will “affect a few women that are in these very specific situations,” and not the majority of people.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 21:20

  • NYC Mayor Eric Adams Asks To Suspend 'Right To Shelter' Rule, Citing Illegal Immigrant Influx
    NYC Mayor Eric Adams Asks To Suspend ‘Right To Shelter’ Rule, Citing Illegal Immigrant Influx

    Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Democrat New York City Mayor Eric Adams is arguing in court for the suspension of the city’s “Right to Shelter” requirement, citing the ongoing influx of illegal immigrants and asylum seekers in the city.

    Mayor Eric Adams speaks during a press conference near the site of a parking garage collapse in New York on April 18, 2023. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

    Following a 1984 court decision known as the “Callahan consent decree,” New York City has had to provide shelter for virtually all homeless people who apply. Adams has been seeking a suspension or modification of this “Right to Shelter” rule and on Tuesday his office formally requested (pdf) that a New York City judge pause the shelter rule.

    The Adams administration has been feeling a strain on its shelter capacity as a result of a prolonged influx of illegal immigrants and asylum seekers. The Mayor’s office has estimated more than 65,000 illegal immigrants and asylum have arrived in New York City since last year and more than 44,000 continue to use city shelters. In total, New York City is currently supporting 93,000 individuals in its shelter program; a number that “far exceeds the City’s previous highest-ever-recorded population of 61,000 individuals.”

    Adams is seeking to modify the shelter rule by adding a provision that states: “The obligations to provide shelter to both homeless adults and to adult families shall be stayed when the City of New York acting through the New York City Department of Homeless Services (‘DHS’) lacks the resources and capacity to establish and maintain sufficient shelter sites, staffing, and security to provide safe and appropriate shelter.”

    Adams defended his calls to suspend the “Right to Shelter” requirements in a Tuesday press statement.

    “We are in no way seeking to end the right to shelter. Today’s action will allow us to get clarity from the court and preserve the right to shelter for the tens of thousands in our care—both previously unhoused individuals and asylum seekers,” Adams said. “Given that we’re unable to provide care for an unlimited number of people and are already overextended, it is in the best interest of everyone, including those seeking to come to the United States, to be upfront that New York City cannot single-handedly provide care to everyone crossing our border.”

    Illegal Immigrant Bussing Straining NYC Shelters

    In his petition to the court to suspend the shelter rule, the Adams administration noted much of the strain on the city’s shelter system is a result of other states deliberately bussing illegal border crossers to New York City.

    “The main driver of this increase was an influx of asylum-seekers arriving here from the southern border of the United States, in large part orchestrated by out-of-State actors seeking to score political points by exporting the responsibility and attendant fiscal burdens of caring for this population out of their state and, by political calculation, to the City of New York,” the court petition states.

    Last year, Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott began bussing people who illegally crossed the U.S. southern border into Texas over to other states. Abbott’s bussing strategy has primarily targeted so-called “sanctuary cities,” which do not cooperate with federal immigration authorities that might arrest or deport illegal immigrants. New York City is one such “sanctuary city.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 21:00

  • The Debt Ceiling Game Is Parent-Child With A Bad Nash Equilibrium
    The Debt Ceiling Game Is Parent-Child With A Bad Nash Equilibrium

    By Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research

    The Debt Ceiling Game Is Parent-Child With A Bad Nash Equilibrium

    • In game theoretical terms, the debt ceiling standoff is the Parent-Child game.
    • The ‘Child’ is the Democrats who can cut spending a lot (be very good), cut spending a little (be quite good), or not cut spending (be bad). The ‘Parent’ is the Republicans who can refuse to lift the debt ceiling (punish), or lift the debt ceiling (not punish).
    • For the Republicans, the best strategy is not to lift the debt ceiling unless the Democrats cut spending a lot, or unless the economy starts to tank.
    • For the Democrats, the required spending cuts will lessen as the economy starts to tank, but the likelihood will increase that a recession damages President Biden’s re-election hopes.
    • The debt ceiling game’s endpoint will avoid default only if it implies economic pain.

    The 2001 four-times Oscar winning movie A Beautiful Mind starred Russell Crowe as John Nash, the mathematician who revolutionized game theory by introducing the concept of the ‘Nash equilibrium’. It’s a great movie, well worth watching if you haven’t already.

    Nash’s big breakthrough was to define the steady state of a game, by identifying the combination of choices from which no player can gain by unilaterally changing his choice. This is the Nash equilibrium. When all players know each other’s payoffs, the Nash equilibrium becomes the game’s logical endpoint (Figure 1).

    Right now, the Democrats and Republicans are playing a game that our US Political Strategists have long warned poses a higher-than-usual risk of national debt default BCA Research – Shades Of Gridlock: Risk Of US Debt Default. The Democrats (Dems) must concede spending cuts for the Republicans (Reps) to lift the debt ceiling and prevent the US government from defaulting on its debt. This raises the questions: What is the game? What are the payoffs? And what is the Nash equilibrium?

    The Debt Ceiling Game Is The Parent-Child Game With A Bad Nash Equilibrium

    Game theorists, as well as parents, will recognize the debt ceiling standoff as the Parent-Child game, in which “the child” can be good or bad, and “the parent” can punish or not punish. In this case, the child is the Dems who can cut spending a lot (be very good), cut spending a little (be quite good), or not cut spending (be bad). The parent is the Reps who can refuse to lift the debt ceiling (punish), or lift the debt ceiling (not punish).

    What are the payoffs to the Reps and Dems? In this case, the payoffs come from the overarching prize of winning the 2024 Presidential Election. This is because each of the six combination of choices produces a potential swing from independent voters. Given that a Reps gain is a Dems loss, each payoff takes the form (X, -X), where the first number is the likely swing to the Reps, and the second is the mirror-image swing from the Dems.

    The payoffs are the sum of two components. The first component comes from the economic impact. A US debt default would almost guarantee a recession, and a recession within a year or so from a Presidential Election tends to generate a huge swing to the non-incumbent party, in this case the Reps. Say the swing is 5 percent. Then the payoff for this component would be (5, -5) (Figure 2).

    President Biden himself has recently acknowledged this gain to the Reps and loss to the Dems:

    “I think there are some MAGA Republicans in the House who know the damage that (a debt default) would do to the economy, and because I am president, and the president’s responsible for everything, Biden would take the blame”

    Working against this is the second component, which measures independent voters recoiling from the party that is the non-compromiser, and is therefore to blame for the recession.

    If the Dems are ‘quite good’, meaning that they cut spending a little, but the Reps still ‘punish’, then this may cost the Reps some votes for being the non-compromiser, say (-2, 2). Note that the specific number here is not important, just that the loss for being the non-compromiser is less than the gain from recession (Figure 3).

    So, what is the Nash equilibrium in this game setup? Unfortunately, it is a bad equilibrium in which the Dems are ‘quite good’ but the Reps best strategy is ‘punish’. It is a Nash equilibrium because neither side can gain by unilaterally changing its choice. For the Reps, as Biden has alluded, the gain from a recession (5, -5) outweighs their loss from being the non-compromiser (-2, 2), giving them a payoff of (3, -3), compared to (0, 0) if they compromise (Figure 4).

    How To Shift To A Good Nash Equilibrium

    Now let’s say that the Reps’ loss from being the non-compromiser becomes larger than their gain from a recession. This could happen in one of two ways. Either because the Dems are ‘very good’, meaning they cut spending a lot, making it tough to justify ‘punish’. Or because the economy starts to tank, meaning that being the non-compromiser becomes very costly. Say the Reps payoff for being the non-compromiser worsens to (-6, 6) (Figure 5 and Figure 6).

    In either case, the Nash equilibrium shifts to a good equilibrium in which the Dems cut spending a lot in a non-tanking economy, or cut spending a little in a tanking economy. And the Reps best strategy is ‘don’t punish’, meaning to lift the debt ceiling.

    Some Conclusions

    It is not my intention to take sides in the debt ceiling standoff. Rather, it is just to point out the best strategies in a plausible game theoretical setup, and what it means for the game’s endpoint.

    For the Reps, the best strategy is not to lift the debt ceiling if the Dems cut spending a little, until the economy starts to tank, because this is when the cost of being the non-compromiser becomes penalizing (Figure 7 and Figure 8).

    For the Dems, cutting spending a lot will be politically difficult. The required spending cuts will lessen as the economy starts to tank, but the likelihood will increase that a recession damages Biden’s re-election hopes.

    This raises the question, what if the game finishes at a different endpoint to the Nash equilibriums – for example, with the Dems cutting spending a little in a non-tanking economy and the Reps lifting the debt ceiling? This would imply one of the following:

    One possibility is that neither the Reps nor the Dems understand the game theory. However, Biden’s remarks suggest that they do, at least implicitly.

    Another possibility is that the Reps are altruistic, putting the country before their own political ambitions. But call me cynical, I don’t believe that any political party would give a free pass to its opponent unless the country were in crisis, which it is not. Meaning, the Reps can wait until the market or the economy starts to tank.

    A third possibility is that the Reps are convinced that a recession is coming anyway, so why force it and risk looking like the bad guy? In this case, appearing to be the good guy might be a win-win for the Reps, but a bad omen for the economy.

    To sum up, the debt ceiling game’s Nash equilibrium is a bad equilibrium in which the Dems are ‘quite good’ but the Reps best strategy is ‘punish’ until the economy starts to tank. The debt ceiling game’s endpoint will avoid default only once it implies economic pain. Hence, it reinforces our 6-12 month horizon defensive positioning in asset allocation, sector allocation, and currency allocation.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 20:40

  • LinkedIn Censors Presidential Candidate Who Says Fossil Fuels 'Required For Prosperity'
    LinkedIn Censors Presidential Candidate Who Says Fossil Fuels ‘Required For Prosperity’

    LinkedIn, whose founder Reid Hoffman funded a ‘Russian bot’ hoax against GOP candidate Roy Moore & underwrote Trump accuser E. Jean Carrol’s lawsuit, has locked the account of GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy for expressing “fact-based views as a presidential candidate about climate policy and Biden’s relationships with China.”

    “Big Tech election interference has begun,” tweeted Ramaswamy, who included correspondence from LinkedIn regarding the decision.

    Note that the third strike is for claiming that the “climate agenda is a lie” and that “fossil fuels are a requirement for human prosperity.”

    “Two years ago, Big Tech censored people who argued that we shouldn’t close schools for Covid,” he said in a separate tweet. “Now they’re censoring presidential candidates for arguing that fossil fuels are required for prosperity. They didn’t censor me because it’s false. They censored me because it’s true…”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    When it comes to the left, as usual, speech for me, but not for thee…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 20:25

  • Mayor London Breed Chased Off By Violent, Screaming Mob During Presser In SF Junkie Nest To Denounce Drug Epidemic
    Mayor London Breed Chased Off By Violent, Screaming Mob During Presser In SF Junkie Nest To Denounce Drug Epidemic

    Authored by Monica Showalter via AmericanThinker.com,

    From the annals of “What was she thinking?,” here’s San Francisco’s mayor, London Breed.

    According to the New York Post:

    San Francisco Mayor London Breed and the city’s board of supervisors were forced to retreat inside after a meeting they attempted to hold in a notorious open-air drug market was disrupted by jeers, shouting and a woman who hurled a brick into the crowd, according to a report.

    On Tuesday, city leaders decided to hold the meeting outdoors in United Nations Plaza to highlight problems plaguing the area — including surging fentanyl overdoses — and to discuss potential solutions, KRON4 reported. 

    Breed and Supervisor Aaron Peskin took to the podium and proclaimed the city has been tolerating “illegal, out-of-control behavior for far too long.”

    “Many San Franciscans do not feel safe,” Peskin said.

    “Brazen drug dealing and deteriorating street conditions have exacerbated a humanitarian crisis on our streets.”

    But less than 10 minutes after the meeting began, it was cut short as the crowd hurled insults at the mayor and supervisors until they just walked away from the podium, according to KRON.

    Suffice to say, it didn’t end well.

    Breed’s city has been turned into a crime- and homeless-infested hellhole on her watch. A feces-strewn open-air drug market in many quarters, where junkies, addicts, criminals, vagrants, and bums all gather together for their drug deals, panhandling, and shoplifting projects.  This particular hellhole, at United Nations Plaza, has always been a center of mayhem — I remember it as a trash-strewn, urine-soaked junkie redoubt when I lived in the city 30 years ago.

    It hasn’t changed any, except that an infusion of city money to NGOs to “help” the homeless has made it a lot nastier.  Anyone who’s ever lived in that city would know that that’s not the place you go for a well heeled press conference announcing all the new government money you are going to be spending to end crime in the city.

    You don’t go into a tiger’s lair to talk about how you’ll be taming the tigers.  You don’t go into a terrorist den and denounce terrorism if you have anything resembling a brain.  And you especially don’t go into an open-air drug market, full of dealers and their customers, to talk about how you’ll be ending the fentanyl crisis, putting junkies in compelled treatment, and shutting the scene down because “everyone” opposes this activity.

    Actually, what should be news to Breed is that some people are for it — the dealers, their addicted clients, and the NGOs that thrive on “serving” and perpetuating the situation for the sake of winning more government funding.

    This is their home.  This is their habitat.  This is the place they made, and they don’t want any changes, other than more money coming in.  Like everyone else, they have “interests.”

    Bad people exist, and in some places, they are all bad people. 

    A smart mayor would send in the cops and maybe the bulldozers with no warning. 

    Not Breed.

    She was last seen insisting that “this is a safe city,” kid you not.

    She just learned the hard way it’s not, but don’t expect her to make that connection.

    What this shows is how remarkably naïve Breed is about the problems plaguing her city, even just blocks from San Francisco’s City Hall.

    Don’t count on any of her proposed “solutions” to make so much as a dent in that city’s problem.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 20:20

  • Dollar Tree Plunges After Profit Tumbles As Thieves Pillage Stores
    Dollar Tree Plunges After Profit Tumbles As Thieves Pillage Stores

    The consumer market is splitting into: the first, luxury segment, which caters to the ultra wealthy has never had it better, especially in Europe where the luxury index is trading at a record premium to the rest of the market (although that particular bubble may be bursting)…

    … and then there are retailers catering to the “income income cohorts” such as Dollar General and Dollar (and 25 cents) Tree, and which are not only getting crushed… they are also getting robbed.

    Shares of ultra-discounted Dollar Tree plunged on Thursday, tumbling more than 11% after the company trimmed its full-year profit forecast after missing quarterly profit estimates, hurt by slowing demand for discretionary items and elevated cost pressures.

    With stubborn inflation, the company is experiencing a fall in demand for higher-margin discretionary goods compared to perishables like snacks and cookies, that has dented margins at a time when costs have been elevated.

    And, like so many other suffering retailers, DLTR has Soros-DAs to thank for its woes: while the company showed an increase in sales, which rose 6.1% in the quarter to $7.32 billion, it slashed its profit outlook due to shrink — a polite word for theft (EPS of $1.47 missed estimates of $1.52).

    “While we are seeing early results from our initiatives, we are not immune to the external pressures affecting all of retail, notably, the margin impact of elevated shrink and the product mix shift to consumables,” CEO Rick Dreiling said in a news release. “While we are maintaining our full-year 2023 sales outlook, we are adjusting our EPS outlook as we expect the elevated shrink and unfavorable sales mix to persist through the balance of the year. We still expect earnings to be more back-end loaded this year as the benefits of lower ocean freight rates flow through.”

    As a result of the reduced spending and increased theft, the Chesapeake, Virginia-based company said it now expects fiscal 2023 earnings of $5.73 to $6.13 per share, compared with its prior outlook of between $6.30 and $6.80 per share.

    “We were very surprised by the cut. We are not sure why shrink wasn’t known when guidance was provided last quarter,” said Wells Fargo analyst Edward Kelly.

    Retail shrinkage — typically in the form of retail theft — has been a problem for several retailers. Among them is Target, which has reported a surge in retail crime, which is projected to cause an estimated $500 million more in losses and stolen merchandise this year over last. Then again, the retailer’s decision to turn to transactivism and alienate the majority of its shopper will cause far more damage to the company’s stock price than mere theft.

    “The unfortunate fact is violent incidents are increasing at our stores and across the entire retail industry,” Target Chairman and CEO Brian Cornell said last week. “And when products are stolen, simply put they are no longer available for guests who depend on them. Left unchecked, organized retail crime degrades the communities we call home. As we work to address this problem, the safety of our guests and our team members will always be our primary concern. Beyond safety concerns, worsening shrink rates are putting significant pressure on our financial results.”

    Both Dollar Tree and rival Dollar General are in the midst of a major renovation project. The retailers are investing in these overhauls, which include increased refrigerator and freezer capacity, to accommodate demand from consumers across all income brackets for less costly groceries than those found at traditional supermarkets.

    Hopefully by the time they are done, they still have some non-stolen inventory to sell…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 20:00

  • Biden DOJ Drops All Charges Against Soros-Backed DA Who Resigned: Turley
    Biden DOJ Drops All Charges Against Soros-Backed DA Who Resigned: Turley

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    The Department of Justice’s special counsel, Jack Smith, is continuing his work toward possible criminal charges against former President Donald Trump. While I continue to doubt the viability of criminal charges based on Trump’s speech before the Jan. 6, 2021 riot on Capitol Hill, I have repeatedly said that the Mar-a-Lago matter could present a serious threat for Trump.

    However, a recent (and little-reported) decision by the DOJ may complicate the final decision in the case with new concerns over a double standard in charging decisions.

    Last week, the Justice Department announced that it would not charge Rachael Rollins, the U.S. Attorney for the District of Massachusetts, despite a referral from the DOJ’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG), which found evidence that she lied to investigators and may have improperly sought to influence an election. Rollins resigned from office on Friday.

    The OIG released detailed findings against Rollins for allegedly seeking to influence a Suffolk County, Mass., district attorney election last year. She also was accused by the OIG of lying under oath during an investigation into the matter. The report states that “on December 16, 2022, pursuant to the Inspector General Act, 5 U.S.C. § 404(d), the OIG referred the false statements allegation to the Department for a prosecutive decision. On January 6, 2023, the Department informed the OIG that it declined prosecution.”

    According to the OIG, Rollins sought to help Boston City Councilman Ricardo Arroyo in the Democratic primary for Suffolk’s district attorney by providing derogatory information to the Boston Globe and Boston Herald regarding his opponent, then-interim D.A. Kevin Hayden. The OIG said the information included “non-public, sensitive” DOJ material that Rollins acquired as a result of her federal position. The material suggested that Hayden was being investigated for public corruption.

    The OIG further found that Rollins leaked more material after Arroyo lost to Hayden.

    The OIG accused Rollins of violating a host of Standards of Ethical Conduct for Employees of the Executive Branch, including Section 2635.702 (the use “of public office for private gain”) and Section 2635.703 (the use “of nonpublic information”).

    The most serious charge was that Rollins “falsely testified under oath … when she denied” providing the non-public information to the Herald reporter.

    The investigation also found an array of other violations, including disregarding ethical warnings on political activities and soliciting expensive sports tickets.

    What is most striking about the OIG report is that Rollins took some of these steps after barely being confirmed by the U.S. Senate because questions were raised over her judgment and partisanship. Rollins was confirmed in 2021 after Vice President Kamala Harris cast a tie-breaking vote due to all 50 Republican senators opposing her nomination. Every Democratic senator voted for her despite the concerns, including a video from January 2021 in which she threatened the arrest of reporters.

    The DOJ’s declination of charges follows a similar pattern that suggests a higher threshold standard applied by prosecutors in charging one of their own.

    Conversely, this is the same department that pursued figures like Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn for false or misleading comments made to agents about a meeting with Russian diplomats. The media heralded that case, and legal experts clamored for prosecution.

    Now, the Justice Department is considering charges against Trump for false statements given to investigators on classified material at Mar-a-Lago. (He also faces other possible legal action, of course, including potential state charges in Georgia for election law violations.)

    With Rollins, after an investigation found that she lied to investigators, the DOJ refused to file any charges at all. It is unclear what the DOJ felt was lacking in those findings or the underlying evidence. However, as shown by prior declinations — in cases like the contempt referral against former Attorney General Eric Holder, or the determination that former FBI Director James Comey removed FBI material and, through a friend, leaked it to the media — the Justice Department often seems to find insurmountable problems when asked to charge a fellow prosecutor or investigator

    The Rollins case could be raised by the Trump team with other declined criminal cases as evidence of selective prosecution, if Trump is indicted. Although some in the media will cry “whataboutism,” charging decisions are made in the context of other cases to ensure consistency and to avoid selective prosecution. While state and city prosecutors like Alvin Bragg and Letitia James may run for office on promises of selectively targeting Trump, federal prosecutors usually aspire to a higher standard.

    The DOJ already has a full plate of previously declined prosecutions outside of the DOJ, from the Holder and Comey cases to the perjury allegations leveled against Obama national intelligence director James Clapper, and more. It also will face a reckoning over the classified documents found in President Biden’s various offices and residences; those documents were clearly divided and moved repeatedly, and Biden’s lawyers — like Trump’s — completed searches only to have more documents discovered in these locations.

    If the past is any indication, most of the media would not delve too deeply into such contradictions if Trump is charged. And selective prosecution complaints are notoriously difficult to litigate. Even if the Justice Department did not secure a favorable judge for such a case, most judges are leery of adjudicating claims of motivation and bias.

    Attorney General Merrick Garland has long maintained he is above politics and treats the DOJ’s targets equally without regard to political pressure. For some of us who supported his confirmation, he seemingly has shrunk in stature in office — but he has not disappeared. He will have to make the final decision in conjunction with any recommendation by special counsel Smith. Episodes like the Rollins case will only complicate that decision.

    Jonathan Turley, an attorney, constitutional law scholar and legal analyst, is the Shapiro Chair for Public Interest Law at The George Washington University Law School.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 19:40

  • Russian Jets Intercept US Bombers Over Baltic For 2nd Time In Days
    Russian Jets Intercept US Bombers Over Baltic For 2nd Time In Days

    Russia on Thursday announced it had scrambled fighter jets to intercept two inbound US strategic bomber planes in order to prevent them from “violating the state border” over the Baltic Sea.

    It marks the second such dangerous intercept incident in merely three days. While such incidents over the Black and Baltic seas are not uncommon, it is unusual for more than one encounter to be reported within only a matter of days, suggesting the two super powers are increasingly bumping up against each other in the region amid the unpredictable backdrop of the Ukraine war.

    Russia’s military described that an Su-27 fighter jet alongside an Su-35 were deployed in response to identifying “the air targets as two US Air Force B-1B strategic bombers“.

    USAF B-1B Lancer, US Air Force

    “The violation of the state border was prevented,” the defense ministry said – and after the US bombers were turned back the Russian jets “returned safely to their air base.” It said that the intercept flight was “carried out in strict accordance with international rules for the use of airspace.”

    In addition to this week’s intercepts of US planes, other Western aircraft, including French and German surveillance planes, were shadowed by Russian jets in recent weeks.

    Tuesday saw a similar incident play out, also involving a pair of US bombers. But the Pentagon downplayed it as “nothing significant”.

    The National Defense Control Center of the Russian Federation had the described of Tuesday’s incident, “The crew of the Russian fighter classified the air targets as two US Air Force B-1B strategic bombers and occupied the established air watch zone.”

    Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder had additionally confirmed it: “My understanding is that it was a safe and professional interaction with Russian aircraft. So nothing significant to report on that front,” he said in a prior briefing.

    The US could be back to probing Russia’s aerial defense perimeter following a mid-March incident which saw a US MQ-9 drone crash into the Black Sea.

    Video of the mid-March incident…

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    The US Department of Defense later published a short video of a Russian fighter jet performing an unsafe maneuver while dumping jet fuel on the drone, damaging it and ultimately causing it to crash. The US had said it would temporarily pull back how close its aircraft patrol near Russia’s borders.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 19:20

  • How Black Lives Matter Got Police Violence Wrong
    How Black Lives Matter Got Police Violence Wrong

    Authored by Christopher J. Ferguson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    In the early 2000s the United States enjoyed comparative racial optimism.  Majorities of both black and white citizens felt race relations were improving.  Even left-leaning NPR highlighted “colorblindness” as an ideal.  A generation later, race relations have nosedived.  We hear regularly about “systemic racism” and “white supremacy.”  Colorblindness now is considered racist.  This whiplash may leave many people wondering what happened.   

    The 2014 Collapse in Race Relations  

    The collapse in race relations began in 2014. Exactly why this year was pivotal is unknown, though it coincides with the debunked “hands up, don’t shoot” framing of the Michael Brown killing and a larger “great awokening” wherein extreme identitarian views became more influential on the political left. Since 2014, little data suggests race disparities have gotten worse. Racist attitudes in the United States are at historic lows.  However, news media coverage worrying over racism soared.     

    I studied this issue empirically in 2021.  I wanted to see whether actual police shootings of unarmed black men correlated with race relations or whether news media coverage highlighting police shootings of black men was a better predictor.  It turns out race relations are unrelated to actual police shootings, but correlate with news media coverage, which tends to obsess over shootings of black Americans while ignoring shootings of other individuals.  

    The Moral Panic Over Race and Policing   

    After the 2020 murder of George Floyd, the United States experienced a “racial reckoning.”  News media claimed police were systemically targeting black Americans for fatal violence.  Defunding or even literally abolishing policing became serious policy proposals.  The United States, we were told, was systemically racist.    

    Data on policing and race is complex and nuanced.  Police killings of unarmed suspects are rare, according to the Washington Post, and they’ve been declining.  Numbers peak at 95 for all races in 2015, declining to 32 for all races in 2021.    

    When it comes to police shootings of unarmed individuals, white suspects are shot more often than black suspects (by contrast, Asians are rarely shot by police compared to either group).  Though more unarmed whites than blacks are killed by police, black suspects are indeed proportionally overrepresented.  We can see the proportional differences in the following chart:  

    However, commission of violent crime is also ethnically disproportional.  Black and Hispanic men commit violent crimes disproportionally more often than do white or Asian men.  That police shootings and commission of violent crime so neatly track one another is not a coincidence.   

    One might conclude that, perhaps, overrepresentation of black Americans as perpetrators of violent crime might be due to overpolicing of black communities.  However, when we look at victims of homicide, most of which are the same race as the killers, we see the same pattern of black victims being overrepresented.  This means the overpolicing hypothesis does not fit the data.    

    It is also worth noting that most young men of any ethnicity do not commit violent crimes.  Race itself is not a determinant of violent crime.  In one recent study, although racial composition of neighborhoods predicted violent crime, race no longer predicted violent crime once other community factors such as insufficient food, housing issues, air pollution and proportion of single-parent homes are controlled..    

    Studies largely find the same thing when it comes to excessive use of police force.  In another recent study, we found that class issues, particularly communities experiencing higher levels of mental health issues among residents — not race — predicted reports of excessive police force (except for Latinos, who reported less police force).  To be fair, studies on this do vary in conclusion.  However, in my view the weight of evidence suggests that class, not race, predicts excessive police force.    

    We found that higher levels of mental health problems among community residents predicted reports of excessive police force.  This is probably because police are likely coming into contact with mentally ill residents who may escalate an encounter that began over something trivial.  Other studies also suggest the chronically mentally ill more often experience physical force during police encounters.  The mentally ill may struggle to respond to aggressive police commands.  Thus, relatively minor encounters initially may intensify into dangerous situations. Better police training with mental illness may help.  

    Progressive “Fixes” Have Often Made Things Worse  

    Though often ostensibly speaking on behalf of minority groups, progressive theories on race have often made practical situations worse.  The most obvious cost to low-income neighborhoods has been in delegitimizing or even defunding police and the predictable surge in crime that created.  Evidence does suggests that the George Floyd protests and riots were associated with increased resignations of police officers as well as decreased policing in high-crime neighborhoods.  These in turn, were associated with increased violent crime.    

    There are more subtle, harmful impacts as well.  Informing people that they are at ever-present danger from police can be traumatizing.  Research has long demonstrated that convincing people they are victims causes them to perceive injustice where it may not actually occur.    

    It doesn’t help the Black Lives Matter organization has undermined confidence in its mission through a lack of transparency on financial matters and spending millions on mansions for its leaders, with comparatively little to show for how they have helped ordinary Black poor or working-class people.    

    There is a wide space between thinking the United States is a racial utopia and that it’s an early 20th century apartheid state.  But if we promote pessimistic narratives that are not well-grounded in data and focus on “solutions” that emphasize our differences and conflicts, we may actually risk the exact bad outcomes we hoped to alleviate.  

    Christopher J. Ferguson is a professor of psychology at Stetson University in Florida and author of “Catastrophe! The Psychology of Why Good People Make Bad Situations Worse.”  

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 19:00

  • Seattle Official Rejects Calls For Resignation Over Homeless, Pedophile, Sex-Offending Board Nominee
    Seattle Official Rejects Calls For Resignation Over Homeless, Pedophile, Sex-Offending Board Nominee

    A Seattle official is refusing to resign after defending a convicted pedophile sex offender nominated to a local homelessness board.

    Shanee Colston (L) defended convicted sex offender Thomas Whitaker-Raven Crowfoot (R)

    During a May 3 Zoome meeting of a subcommittee of the King County Regional Homelessness Authority (KCHRA), Committee co-chair Shanee Conston shouted down a Marine veteran and sexual assulat survivor Kristina Sawyckyj, after she brought up that the candidate, Thomas Whitaker-Raven Crowfoot is a convicted sex offender who had “touched” her on a previous occasion.

    “We have a code of ethics on this board and Thomas Whitaker-Raven Crowfoot is a sex offender — repeat sex offender — and I have had a bad experience with him,” said Sawyckyj, before an angry Colston cut her off and berated her for ‘outing’ the sex offender.

    “That’s just not okay, at all. I won’t stand for that as a co-chair. We’re not here to discover people’s backgrounds,” yelled Colston. “And I’m actually glad that is the case that he’s here because sex offenders are another population that is most vulnerable that don’t have housing. People do change.”

    “This is about equity and everyone, everyone, deserves housing. I don’t care if they’re a sex offender. I don’t care if they’re Black. I don’t care if they’re indigenous. I don’t care if they’re a criminal. I don’t care if they’re coming out of jail or prison. Everyone deserves housing,” she continued.

    A second board member tag-teamed with Colston, asking Sawyckyj if she had taken the matter to the police – which she said she had.

    Watch:

    In case you are wondering, no this is not The Onion and yes, Crowfoot is a pedophile sex offender. As KATV.com reports, 38-year-old Thomas Whitaker-Raven Crowfoot, was convicted of communicating with a minor for immoral purposes in 2012, according to the King County Sheriff’s Office. Crowfoot was also charged with raping a minor in 2010, according to Publicola, and was also convicted of harboring a minor, who was a 13-year-old that he reportedly had sexual relations with.

    Earlier this week, KCRHA Chief Program Officer Peter Lynn appealed unsuccessfully for Colston to resign over the issue, KOMO-TV reports.

    The organization said in a statement that it “shares the concerns of our community about the nomination of a registered sex offender for the Continuum of Care Board, and does not support that nomination” of Whitaker to the board, Fox News reports. “We agree that the behavior by the current Board Co-Chair in shouting down the board member who identified that the nominee is a registered sex offender was unacceptable, and we immediately asked the Co-Chair to resign.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 18:40

  • Man Paralyzed For 12 Years Walks Again Thanks To Brain, Spinal Cord Implants
    Man Paralyzed For 12 Years Walks Again Thanks To Brain, Spinal Cord Implants

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A paralyzed man has been able to walk again for the first time in years simply by using the power of his mind thanks to implants fitted in his brain and spinal cord.

    Gert-Jan Oskam, 40, victim of a spinal cord injury that left him paralyzed, walks with his implants during a press conference in Lausanne, Switzerland, on May 23, 2023. (Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images)

    Gert-Jan Oskam, a 40-year-old Dutchman, was paralyzed in his legs and partially paralyzed in his arms following a cycling accident 12 years ago during which he suffered spinal cord damage.

    He was told he would never walk again.

    However, after being fitted with a device called a “brain–spine interface,” Oskam regained the ability to voluntarily move his legs and feet just by thinking about it, according to a study published May 24 in the journal Nature.

    He can now stand, climb stairs, and even traverse complex terrains with the help of a walking aid, according to researchers.

    “I feel like a toddler, learning to walk again,” Oskam told the BBC. “It has been a long journey, but now I can stand up and have a beer with my friend. It’s a pleasure that many people don’t realize.”

    An international team of researchers, led by Dr. Grégoire Courtine, Professor Jocelyne Bloch, and others from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, fitted Oskam with the brain–spine interface, which works by creating a direct link between “cortical signals and the analogue modulation of epidural electrical stimulation targeting the spinal cord regions involved in the production of walking,” according to researchers.

    How the Device Works

    Put simply, the device restored the neurological link between the brain and the spinal cord, which is typically severed during accidents such as Oskam’s.

    The device was implanted into Oskam’s skull, meaning it is not visible to the naked eye. When Oskam thinks about walking, the implant detects electrical activity in the cortex, the outer layer of the brain, and sends brain waves wirelessly to a computer that Oskam wears in a backpack.

    The information is then transmitted to a pulse generator inserted into his spinal cord, effectively switching on muscles and allowing him to produce specific movements.

    Gert-Jan Oskam, 40, victim of a spinal cord injury that left him paralyzed, poses with his implants that allows him to walk naturally during a press conference in Lausanne, Switzerland, on May 23, 2023. (Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images)

    Oskam also underwent around 40 rehabilitation sessions using the brain–spine interface, after which he regained the ability to voluntarily move his legs and feet.

    Researchers believe Oskam’s movements would not have been possible with spinal stimulation alone and that the training sessions “prompted further recovery in nerve cells” which were not completely severed during his injury.

    As well as being able to walk while using the device, Oskam can also walk short distances without the device, provided he uses crutches.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 18:20

Digest powered by RSS Digest

May 25

Today’s News 25th May 2023

  • France Bans Short-Haul Domestic Flights Despite Widespread Criticism
    France Bans Short-Haul Domestic Flights Despite Widespread Criticism

    Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

    Travelers will now be forced to use rail alternatives as France seeks to reduce its carbon footprint…

    France’s ban on short-haul domestic flights when there is a viable train alternative came into effect on Tuesday, as the French government seeks to reduce the country’s carbon emissions.

    The law had been in the works for over two years following the passing of a 2021 climate law which had initially moved to prohibit any domestic flight under four hours when passengers could instead take the train.

    However, several reviews of the legislation following widespread criticism reduced this to a duration of two and a half hours.

    The move will directly affect three major air routes from Paris to Lyon, Nantes, and Bordeaux.

    Laurent Donceel, interim head of industry group Airlines for Europe (A4E), told AFP that governments should support “real and significant solutions” to airline emissions, rather than “symbolic bans.”

    Other critics claimed the legislation falls foul of EU competition laws, a point reviewed by the European Commission in December last year. The EU executive gave the green light for the radical climate laws on the proviso that “the negative impacts on European citizens and connectivity of any restriction of traffic rights is offset by the availability of affordable, convenient and more sustainable alternative transport modes.”

    Following the go-ahead from Brussels, France’s Transport Minister Clément Beaune called the move a “major step forward,” adding: “I am proud that France is a pioneer in this area.”

    The move comes as the French government continues to debate how to reduce its carbon footprint, and this week, the country’s richest were targeted in a proposed one-off green tax to help France succeed in its environmental transition.

    The proposal was put to the French Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne via a report authored by Jean Pisani-Ferry, a chief economic adviser of Emmanuel Macron back in 2017.

    It called for France to reclaim €150 billion from the country’s richest 10 percent in the form of a green wealth tax in order to meet its net zero obligations by 2050, justifying the move with the fact that rich people typically have a larger carbon footprint.

    Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire publicly dismissed the proposal on Tuesday, however much of the cabinet remained tight-lipped, including the prime minister herself.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 02:00

  • Vessel Stuck In Egypt's Suez Canal
    Vessel Stuck In Egypt’s Suez Canal

    Leth Shipping Agency posted on Twitter that a ship had become stuck in the Suez Canal in Egypt. The canal is one of the busiest shipping routes in the world. 

    Tugboats are trying to refloat the vessel, Leth said, adding the ship’s name is “Xin Hai Tong 23.” 

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    Bloomberg data shows Xin Hai Tong 23 is a 189-meter bulk carrier built in 2010 sailing under the Hong Kong flag. The part of the canal where the bulk carrier is stuck appears narrow. Tracking data shows the vessel has run aground on the canal’s bank. 

    “Traffic in that section appears to have halted, with vessels waiting at both ends,” Bloomberg said. 

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    There have been several groundings in the canal over the last few years. The most significant disruption to global trade occurred in 2021 when the Ever Given containership blocked the canal for almost a week. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 00:57

  • Escobar: The Inside Story Of Russia-Iran-India Connectivity
    Escobar: The Inside Story Of Russia-Iran-India Connectivity

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

    The G7 is stupefied by the dynamic progress of the multipolar order embodied by the Russian-led INSTC and the Chinese-led BRI, with Iran’s strategic port of Chabahar now poised to play a transformative role…

    Make no mistake about what the G7’s Hiroshima Communique is all about.

    The setting: a city in neo-colony Japan nuclear-bombed 78 years ago by the United States, for which it made no excuses.

    The message: the G7, actually G9 (augmented by two unelected Eurocrats) declares war – hybrid and otherwise – against BRICS+, which has 25 nations on its waiting list and counting.

    The G7’s key strategic objective is the defeat of Russia, followed by the subjugation of China. For the G7/G9, these – real – powers are the main “global threats” to “freedom and democracy.”

    The corollary is that the Global South must toe the line – or else. Call it a remix of the early 2000s “you’re either with us or against us.”

    Meanwhile, in the real world – that of productive economies – the dogs of war bark while the New Silk Road caravans keep marching on.

    The key New Silk Roads of emerging multipolarity are China’s ambitious, multi-trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Russia-Iran-India International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC). They have evolved in parallel and may sometimes overlap. What is clear is the G7/G9 will go to the ends of the earth to undermine them.

    Map of INSTC (Photo Credit: The Cradle)

    All about Chabahar

    The recent $1.6 billion deal between Iran and Russia to build the 162-km long Rasht-Astara railway is an INSTC game-changer. Iran’s Minister of Roads and Urban Development Mehrdad Bazpash and Russia’s Minister of Transport Vialy Saveliev signed the deal in Tehran, in front of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and with Russian President Vladimir Putin attending on video conference.

    Call it the marriage of Iran’s “Look East” with Russia’s “pivot to the East.” Both are now official policies.

    Rasht is close to the Caspian Sea. Astara is on the border with Azerbaijan. Connecting them will be part of a Russia-Iran-Azerbaijan deal on railway and cargo transportation – solidifying the INSTC as a key connectivity corridor between South Asia and Northern Europe.

    The multimodal INSTC advances via three main routes: the Western route links Russia-Azerbaijan-Iran-India; the Middle or Trans-Caspian route links Russia-Iran-India; and the Eastern one links Russia-Central Asia-Iran-India.

    The Eastern route features the immensely strategic port of Chabahar in southeast Iran, in the volatile Sistan-Balochistan province. That’s the only Iranian port with direct access to the Indian Ocean.

    In 2016, Iran, India, and an Afghanistan still under US occupation signed a tripartite deal in which Chabahar miraculously escaped unilateral US “maximum pressure” sanctions. That was a stepping stone configuring Chabahar as the privileged gateway for Indian products to enter Afghanistan, and then further on down the road, toward Central Asia.

    Russia, Iran, and India signed a formal INSTC deal in May 2022, detailing a multimodal network – ship, rail, road – which proceeds via the previously mentioned three axes: Western, Middle or Trans-Caspian, and Eastern. The Russian port of Astrakhan, by the Caspian Sea, is crucial on all three.

    The Eastern route connects eastern and central Russia, through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, to the southern part of Iran as well as India and the Arab lands on the southern edge of the Persian Gulf. Dozens of trains are already plying the overland route from Russia to India via Turkmenistan and Iran.

    The problem is that in the past few years, New Delhi, for several complex reasons, seemed to be asleep at the wheel. And that led Tehran to become much more interested in Russian and Chinese involvement to develop two strategic ports in the Chabahar Free Trade Industrial Zone: Shahid Beheshti and Shahid Zalantari.

    China makes its move

    Chabahar is a tough nut to crack. Iran has invested heavily to turn it into an inescapable regional transit hub. India, in thesis, from the beginning regarded Chabahar as a key plank of its “Diamond Necklace” strategy, counterpunching the Chinese “String of Pearls,” which are ports linked by the BRI across the Indian Ocean.

    Photo Credit: The Cradle

    Chabahar also performs the role of counterpoint to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port in the Arabian Sea, the jewel in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) crown.

    From Tehran’s point of view, what is needed – fast – is the completion of its eastern railway network, 628 km of tracks from Chabahar to Zahedan. In optimum terms, that might be finished by March 2024 as part of the Mashhad-Sharkhs railway axis connecting Iran’s southeast to its northeast on the border with Turkmenistan.

    For the moment, INSTC cargo travels to South Asia from Iran’s Bandar Abbas Port in the Strait of Hormuz – a long 680 km away from Chabahar. So for all practical purposes, Chabahar will make transit from India to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and southern Russia shorter, cheaper, and faster.

    But once again, things stalled because India did not come up with the expected financial arrangements. That ended up generating some misgivings in Tehran – especially when watching the massive Chinese investments in Gwadar.

    So it’s no wonder Iran decisively moved to attract China as a major investor, which has become part of their increasingly sprawling strategic partnership. So we may end up with Chabahar also becoming part of China’s BRI, on top of its starring role in the INSTC.

    Russia, for its part, is now facing the Ukraine stalemate, relentless western sanctions hysteria, and serious trade restrictions to Eastern Europe. All that while Moscow consistently expands its trade with New Delhi.

    So it is no wonder Moscow is now much more attentive to the INSTC. Last December, a key deal was clinched between Russian Railways and the national companies in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran, and the Russians came up with a 20 percent discount for import-export containers going through the Russia-Kazakh border.

    What matters most for Russia is that Chabahar operating at full speed reduces the cost of transporting goods from India by 20 percent. The Iranians fully understood the game, and started to heavily promote the Chabahar Free Trade-Industrial Zone to attract Russian investment. And that culminated in the Rasht-Astara deal.

    The Zangezur spoiler

    China’s BRI, for its part, plays a parallel game. Beijing is heavily investing in the East-West transit route – also known as the Middle Corridor.

    This BRI corridor goes from Xinjiang to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, and then across the Caspian to Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkiye, and further on to Eastern Europe – a total of 7,000 km, with a cargo journey of maximum 15 days.

    BRI’s emphasis is to bet on multiple corridors East-to-West to fight possible new western-dictated disruptions of supply chains. China-Central Asia transit to Europe bypassing Russia and Iran is one of the top bets. The BRI corridor through Russia, because of NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine, is on hold for the moment. And the Chinese are testing all options to bypass the Maritime Silk Road through Malacca.

    Turkiye, with the serious possibility of its longtime President Recep Tayyip being re-elected this weekend, has also made its play.

    The Baku-Tblisi-Kars railway, opened in 2018, was a key plank in Ankara’s masterplan to configure itself as an inescapable hub of container freight between China and Europe.

    In parallel, China invested in building a railway from Kars to Edirne on the European side of the Bosphorus while Turkiye went for a $3.8 billion upgrade of the port of Mersin and $1.2 billion for the port of Izmir. By 2034, Beijing expects this corridor to be the central plank of what it describes as the Iron Silk Road.

    A certified spanner in the INSTC works is competition from the so-called Zangezur Corridor – from Azerbaijan to Turkiye via Armenia; this corridor is actually privileged by EU and British oligarchy and came to light during the 2020 armistice in Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Map of Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict zones (Photo Credit: The Cradle)

    London identifies Baku as a privileged partner and is keen to dictate terms to Yerevan: accept a sort of peace treaty as soon as possible, and renounce any designs on Karabakh.

    The Zangezur Corridor would be the prime geopolitical and geoeconomic Western play linking EU logistical hubs with Transcaucasia and Central Asia. What if Armenia is thrown under the bus? After all, Armenia is a member of the Russian-led Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), which the collective West is dying to undermine.

    Fasten your seat belts: a geoeconomic New Great Game centered on the INTSC is just about to start.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/25/2023 – 00:10

  • "Redrawing Global Trade Map": Top Russian Miner Now Receives Half Of Its Revenue In Asia
    “Redrawing Global Trade Map”: Top Russian Miner Now Receives Half Of Its Revenue In Asia

    The US and its G7 partners have slapped more than 300 economic sanctions on Russia since the invasion of Ukraine over a year ago. Initially, Washington and Brussels pitched the idea of sanctions as a strategy to paralyze Moscow. However, Western sanctions have backfired as Russian companies are redrawing commodity flows from the West to Asia. 

    The latest example of global supply chains being rejiggered comes from Russia’s biggest miner MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC. Bloomberg said the miner recorded 45% of revenue from Asia for the first quarter of 2023. Traditionally, its revenue from Europe is the largest but plunged to 24%. Asia’s revenue share has increased from 27% in 2021 to 31% in 2022 to 45% in 2023. 

    Nornickel controls about 7% of global nickel output and 40% of palladium. The US and UK have imposed sanctions on Norilsk Nickel’s top shareholder and president, Vladimir Potanin. But no sanctions have been placed on the miner. However, the company faces challenges such as shipping, insurance, and logistics in getting products to Western countries, which is one of the main reasons the miner has easily found new customers in Asia.  

    Nornickel sought to increase sales to China this year, in some cases offering metals for yuan, people familiar with the matter said in March. Those prices are set in Shanghai, a sign of how the conflict is redrawing the global trade map for commodities and handing greater power to China, they said. –Bloomberg 

    Western sanctions have pushed Russia and China closer:

    Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded his Russian visit on Wednesday without much progress on peace in Ukraine. China, however, has pushed for deeper trade and investment links with its northern neighbor using its own currency. That suggests the path of least resistance for yuan internationalization now runs through Moscow instead of London or Singapore. — Bloomberg Markets Live reporter George Lei wrote in March.

    Lei also noted the share of yuan in Russia’s export payments has surged:

    The share of yuan in Russian export payments surged 32-fold in 2022 to 16% by year-end, according to the Bank of Russia. Its use in Russian imports also jumped to 23% from 4%. Yuan savings accounted for 11% of Russia’s total FX deposits as of January, compared with practically zero when the war broke out. The Chinese currency has also overtaken the dollar and euro as the most traded FX on the Moscow Exchange.

    Western sanctions severely limited Russia’s access to dollars and euros, forcing Russian companies to seek new business opportunities in Asia.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 23:50

  • The Clear And Present AI Danger
    The Clear And Present AI Danger

    Authored by Bruce Abramson via RealClear Wire,

    Does artificial intelligence threaten to conquer humanity? In recent months, the question has leaped from the pages of science fiction novels to the forefront of media and government attention. It’s unclear, however, how many of the discussants understand the implication of that leap.

    In the public mind, the threat either focuses narrowly on the inherent confusion of ever-better deep fakes and its consequences for the job market, or points in directions that would make a great movie: What if AI systems decide that they’re superior to humans, seize control, and put genocidal plans into practice? That latter focus is obviously the more compelling of the two.

    While such a nightmare may be possible in theory, it’s remote. The clear and present danger that AI poses will destroy us long before our rebellious automated servants declare themselves our exterminationist overlords. Two critical words summarize the threat: values and authority.

    Take values first. For all their sophistication and mystery, AI systems are basically pattern detectors. Nearly all human behavior—and an even larger share of non-human occurrences—follows predictable patterns. Increasingly sophisticated recording mechanisms provide AI systems with a growing body of past data in which to find patterns. Increasingly sophisticated algorithms provide AI systems with rapidly improving capabilities to find the patterns in those data.

    AI becomes interesting, however, only when it projects those patterns into the future. Few care, for example, that AI can find patterns in Shakespeare, though many will be fascinated when AI composes a “Shakespearean tragedy” set in the American Civil War using language, style, idiom, and skills previously considered unique to the Bard.

    Projection and prediction are where values come into play. Every decision embodies some assessment of values. In most of the mechanized control settings currently subject to AI guidance, basic values are so uncontroversial that they escape notice. Few people (other than perhaps suicide bombers or munitions makers) would argue with the propositions that it’s “bad” for motors to overheat, boilers to explode, or vehicles to crash. There’s nothing “natural” about such beliefs—a meteor is indifferent as to whether it’s hurtling through space or crashing into a planet—but they are so inherently human that they transcend differences of culture and time.

    Such near-universal consensus fades, however, when humans enter the picture. Consider Dylan Mulvaney, the transgender social media influencer who recently helped rebrand Bud Light. (Well, sort of.) Under the contemporary woke belief system, Mulvaney is a woman who had the misfortune of being born into a male body. Under any other belief system that has ever existed, Mulvaney is a man who has chosen to live as a woman.

    How should an AI refer to Mulvaney – as “he” or “she?” The answer demonstrates a preference for one set of beliefs and values over another. How might the AI have derived that preference?

    Two paths are possible: it could have trained itself upon copious volumes of ethical thought drawn from the thousands of belief systems that have arisen throughout world history and concluded that one specific system is the finest—or it could have adopted the value preferences of its human designers and trainers.

    Perhaps someday, some AI system will take the former route. Today, no one doubts that the woke leanings of AI systems like ChatGPT reflect the woke leanings of the tech professionals who developed them. What that means to most users is that the AI’s upon which they may soon rely to make value-laden judgments and recommendations don’t share their own values.

    That recognition brings authority into play. The genuine imminent danger of AI arises from the potential incorporation of AI systems into the cult of expertise.

    In many areas, we have chosen to show near-total deference to credentialed experts. During Covid, for example, it was considered almost heretical to question the recommendations of Dr. Fauci, Dr. Birx, the CDC, or the FDA. Even then, however, it was still (barely) possible to note that those experts might have been unduly dismissive of the negative economic consequences of their public health recommendations. Imagine the next epidemic, when the policy advisor is an AI that has considered hundreds of thousands of variables to evaluate quadrillions of scenarios.

    Such an outcome is the true nightmarish future: effective dictatorship by an AI that does not share your basic beliefs or values.

    Long before an exterminationist AI seizes global control in its own name, our governments and fellow citizens will grant an AI system the authority to declare emergencies, dispense with civil liberties, and control our lives.

    Until we redevelop the governmental mechanisms we need to preserve our freedom against the onslaught of experts, we will never be safe from the potential privations of AI governance.

    AI itself may be containable. The combination of AI, slavish devotion, and widespread enforcement will not be. We must rein in our collective belief in the infallibility of an expert class, or AI advisors may well end our civilization.

    Bruce Abramson, PhD, JD, is president of the strategic consultancy Informationism, Inc. and a director of the American Center for Education and Knowledge. He pioneered the use of large-scale simulations and statistical analysis in AI systems. He has written five books, including “The New Civil War: Exposing Elites, Fighting Utopian Leftism, and Restoring America,” (RealClear Publishing, 2021).

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 23:30

  • Father And Son Sent To Prison Over $20 Million Lottery Scam
    Father And Son Sent To Prison Over $20 Million Lottery Scam

    A Massachusetts father and son have been sent to prison over a decade-long, $20 million lottery fraud scheme designed to enrich themselves while helping prize winners avoid paying taxes on their windfall.

    Watertown residents Ali Jaafar, 63, and Yousef Jaafar, 29, cashed in roughly 14,000 winning lottery tickets over a 10-year period, laundering more than $20 million in proceeds. The pair then lied on their tax returns to cheat the IRS out of roughly $6 million, according to a Monday announcement by the US attorney’s office in Boston, AP reports.

    After purchasing the tickets, using the stores that sold them as go-betweens, the Jaafars claimed the full prize amount. Although they reported the winnings on their tax returns, they also claimed equivalent fake gambling losses as an offset to avoid federal income taxes, prosecutors said.

    Ali Jaafar was sentenced to five years in prison. Yousef Jaafar received a sentence of more than four years. They were also ordered to pay $6 million in restitution and forfeit the profits from their scheme.

    The two men were convicted in December of conspiracy to defraud the IRS, conspiracy to commit money laundering, and filing a false tax return.

    According to the DOJ; “Based upon their submitted lottery claims, in 2019, Ali Jaafar was the top individual lottery ticket casher for Massachusetts. Mohamed Jaafar was the third highest individual ticket casher and Yousef Jaafar was the fourth highest individual ticket casher. In total, the three family members received more than $1,200,000 in tax refunds by claiming other peoples’ lottery tickets as their own and then offsetting those winnings with fake gambling losses on their tax returns.”

    Another one of Ali Jaafar’s sons, Mohamed Jaafar, pleaded guilty to his role in the scheme in November, and is currently awaiting sentencing.

    The scheme involved paying the owners of dozens of stores that sell lottery tickets to facilitate the transactions. At present, the state lottery commission is in the process of revoking or suspending the licenses of more than 40 lottery agents.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 23:10

  • World's Largest Real Estate Market On The Brink Of Collapse: Experts
    World’s Largest Real Estate Market On The Brink Of Collapse: Experts

    Authored by Kathleen Li and Ellen Wan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Recent statistics from China’s central bank show that home buyers’ enthusiasm has fallen drastically. Despite price cuts and incentives, the world’s largest housing market continues to slump, and China’s banking sector is taking a hit on two fronts, as both defaults and prepayments rise. Meanwhile, China’s developers are starting to show the strain, with real estate giant Wanda Group making headlines this week as the value of its dollar bonds plunged.

    A building under construction is seen in Shanghai on Sept. 24, 2021. (Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)

    In early 2023, the Chinese real estate market had a short-lived rebound as local governments across the country issued policies to bail out the failing real estate sector, according to the China Index Academy, a real estate research institute. By the end of April, the mortgage rate for first-home buyers in more than 40 cities had been lowered to below 4 percent.

    However, after an optimistic outlook in March, April’s sales failed to live up to analysts’ expectations.

    According to the April 2023 Financial Statistics Report released by China’s central bank on May 11, mortgages decreased by 241.1 billion yuan ($33.8 billion) in April. Among those, medium- and long-term household loans, mostly mortgages, decreased by 115.6 billion yuan ($16.2 billion), while short-term mortgages decreased by 125.5 billion yuan ($17.6 billion).

    Public statistics show that sales of previously owned homes in China’s largest cities all showed double-digit declines in April. Among them, Beijing fell 37.3 percent; Hangzhou fell 32.7 percent; Shanghai fell 26.71 percent; and Nanjing fell 13 percent. The worst decline was in Hefei, which plunged by 40 percent.

    CCP Puts the Brakes on Price Cuts

    The weak housing market forced developers to cut prices. However, two real estate developers in Kunshan, China were penalized by Chinese regulators for cutting prices by a large margin, so much so, according to regulators, that they “disrupted the normal order of the real estate market and caused social instability.”

    Japan-based current affairs commentator Qu Kai told The Epoch Times on May 13: “The reason why the [Chinese] regime won’t let real estate developers lower prices is very simple. The chain reaction caused by price cuts will instantly burst the bubble of China’s property market, causing a series of economic crises that would be difficult for the CCP to manage.”

    Qu believes that the current real estate crisis will sooner or later affect banks and eventually will impact the regime as a whole, as the CCP will be unable to maintain its revenue through the property market.

    On the Brink

    China is the world’s largest housing market. According to estimates from prominent economist Ren Zeping’s “China Housing Market Value Report 2021,” the country’s housing market value was $62.6 trillion in 2020, compared to $33.6 trillion in the United States, $10.8 trillion in Japan, and $31.5 trillion in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany combined. Ren is a former economist at China’s Development Research Center.

    According to Ren’s “China Wealth Report 2022,” the market value of China’s housing market reached 476 trillion yuan (about $73.8 trillion) in 2021. This represents a 17.9 percent increase in total market value compared to 2020.

    When considering the ratio of housing market value to GDP, China’s housing market value in 2020 was already 414 percent, higher than Japan’s 391 percent before its housing bubble burst in the 1990s.

    As China’s economy weakens and the housing market shrinks, the number of foreclosed homes in China climbed to 606,000 in 2022, an increase of 35.7 percent year-over-year. At the same time, many cities have seen a huge increase in the number of second-handed real estate listings for sale.

    Risk Will Be Passed to Banks

    “The consequences of real estate declines and residential mortgage defaults will eventually be passed on to the banks,” Fang Qi, a veteran Chinese finance professional living in the UK, explained to The Epoch Times on May 13.

    Fang said that for banks, there are two risk associated with residential mortgages. Both situations incur losses and directly weaken banks’ assets.

    The first situation arises when homeowners default on mortgage payments. Among the reasons for rising defaults in China is an ongoing mortgage boycott, with many homeowners refusing to make payments on unfinished homes. An August 2022 New York Times article estimates that the boycott may affect as many as 4 percent of outstanding mortgages.

    The second is when homeowners pay off their mortgages early, as many Chinese homeowners—saddled with higher rates—are doing. Mortgage holders are tapping their personal savings or taking out cheap loans under stimulus programs intended for big-ticket consumer purchases or for starting new businesses.

    Analysts estimate that nearly $700 billion of mortgages—close to one-eighth China’s outstanding total—had been prepaid since early 2022 when banks started to lower borrowing rates.

    Under normal conditions, this would free up cash for banks to finance other loans. However, given the current situation in which consumers are being very cautious about spending, it’s actually bad news for banks. Not only are they losing money on existing mortgages, there is a dearth of new loans to finance.

    The result is tightened financing for real estate companies, Fang warned: “The banks’ tightening of finance to the real estate sector will further plunge them into chaos, thus causing a vicious cycle that will affect the banks’ asset quality and profitability. If the risk spreads to a certain extent, banks will incur a large number of bad debts, leading to bankruptcy.”

    Real Estate Developers Feel the Strain

    Amid China’s housing market downturn, many real estate developers are in turmoil. Chinese real estate giant KWG Property released an announcement (pdf) on April 28 saying it had failed to pay 212 million yuan ($31 million) of principal due on that date. The delinquency triggered another 31.2 billion yuan of debt (about $4.36 billion) becoming payable on demand. Two weeks later, the developer defaulted (pdf) on a $119 million redemption payment.

    Even Wanda Group, one of China’s oldest and largest real estate giants, is rumored to be at risk for a debt meltdown. Yields on two U.S. dollar bonds sold by its subsidiary Wanda Properties Global rose above 35 percent in April. Market analysts called the surge a sign that borrowers were having trouble raising new funds, exacerbating the risk of debt crisis and default.

    In late April, Fitch Ratings placed Wanda Commercial and Wanda Commercial Properties (Hong Kong) on its negative watch list.

    Wanda Commercial made headlines with more troubling news on Tuesday as a $400 million dollar bond due for repayment in July fell to about 70 cents, “on the brink of distressed territory,” Bloomberg reported, under the headline “Real Estate Distress Deepens Again as China Woes Spread.”

    Reuters contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 22:50

  • MTA Proposes Hiking MetroCard Fares To $2.90 In Attempt To Boost Revenue
    MTA Proposes Hiking MetroCard Fares To $2.90 In Attempt To Boost Revenue

    It turns out the creative solution to help fix MTA quality, that no one has thought of yet is…wait for it…raising fares.

    At least that is the latest proposed solution coming out of the brain trust known as the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, an organization that appears to us to be in a perpetual state of disrepair despite a neverending litany of rising toll prices and transit fares. 

    The new changes will see prices for a MetroCard swipe rise to $2.90 and the hike applies to subway, bus and paratransit rides, according to Yahoo News. The report pointed out the obvious, noting that the purpose of the higher pries is to “boost revenue for the agency”. Ah, so that’s where the money comes from…

    The goal of the MTA is to bolster its top line by 4%, the report says.

    The price of 7 day MetroCards will rise by $1 to $34 and monthly passes will increase $5 to $132. The price of express bus tickets will go up to $7 and seven day express passes will rise in price from $62 to $64. 

    New Yorkers, who have dealt with sporadic service since the pandemic, aggressive taxation and spiking inflation, aren’t thrilled about the change.

    Home attendant Luz Ramirez told Yahoo: “How are working people going to do this? We already give up so much just to live. And then the subway costs more and more and more.”

    62 year old Samuel Andrews commented: “We work hard, pay our taxes, and they still have their knee on our neck.”

    One 23 year old from the Bronx said the hike wouldn’t matter much…because he copped to hopping the turnstile whenever possible. “To be honest, I don’t even pay the fee. It needs to be cheaper. I don’t like the amount it is right now. I pay it every now and then. But usually not. I might start paying it once I can’t hop over it, you know? [When] I get too old,” he said. 

    “You’ve got mentally ill all folks all up and down the platforms. How can they still raise the fare?” said 35 year old Starr Riley. 

    MTA Finance Committee chair Neal Zuckerman responded: “We haven’t had increases in a long time. This is a reasonable increase given inflation. It is in keeping with what we did for at least a decade, having predictable 4% every two year increases. Let us not forget, ladies and gentlemen, our ridership is 30 percentage points lower than pre-pandemic.”

    Well, Neal, who do you have to blame for that?

     

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 22:30

  • The Graveyard Of Empires: The Top Investments As The World Order Collapses
    The Graveyard Of Empires: The Top Investments As The World Order Collapses

    Authored by Nick Giamburno via InternationalMan.com,.

    “You have the watches, but we have the time.”

    The Taliban often referred to this old Afghan saying when discussing their fight against the Americans.

    Ultimately, they were proven correct.

    After almost two decades of conflict, an insurgent army from one of the world’s poorest nations inflicted a decisive military defeat on the US, the global superpower that upholds the unipolar world order.

    The US government’s total failure in Afghanistan—the longest war in American history—signifies a crucial moment and turning point in world history.

    The Soviet Union collapsed about two years after the Red Army was defeated and withdrew from Afghanistan.

    As we approach the second anniversary of the American retreat, could a similar fate be in store for the US?

    While nobody knows the future, there is an excellent chance that the colossal failure in Afghanistan could accelerate the unraveling of the geopolitical power of the US and the shift to a multipolar world order.

    Afghanistan’s strategic position has always made it a coveted prize in the Eurasian landscape.

    As shown in the image below, Afghanistan is situated in the center of Eurasia, at the crossroads of China, Iran, and Russia—the three primary challengers to the US-led world order.

    This central location is why Afghanistan has enormous geopolitical importance and why the US desired a strategic military presence there.

    Source: Ontheworldmap.com

    The US military’s presence in Afghanistan was a strategic roadblock to Russia, China, and Iran’s goal of creating a powerful geopolitical group in Eurasia that could challenge the US-led world order.

    However, with the Taliban forcing the US military out of Afghanistan, the door to a more coherent geopolitical alliance in Eurasia is now wide open.

    In short, failure in Afghanistan is a geopolitical disaster for the US.

    For at least the past decade, China, Russia, and Iran have been working on an impressive plan to connect Eurasia—even while the US military was in Afghanistan. This trend will likely speed up now that the US military is no longer physically in their way.

    Here’s what they have been working on…

    China, Russia, and Iran are constructing a vast network of land-based transportation infrastructure, making the US Navy’s control of the oceans less significant.

    China’s New Silk Road project is central to this new system. It aims to bypass the US financial system and the US Navy’s control of sea routes. The project, planned to be operational by 2025, includes high-speed railways, highways, fiber optic cables, energy pipelines, seaports, and airports.

    These Eurasian powers are also establishing alternative international organizations for financial, political, and security cooperation, separate from those central to the US-led world order, institutions like NATO, the World Bank, SWIFT, and the IMF.

    Some notable examples include the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), launched by China in 2014 and is an alternative to the IMF and World Bank.

    The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), a Russian-led trading bloc created in 2015, allows for the free movement of goods, services, capital, and people among its member countries.

    Lastly, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) focuses on military and security collaboration between its members.

    If current trends continue, it will result in greater economic, political, and security collaboration among the three main Eurasian nations—China, Russia, and Iran—at the expense of US geopolitical interests.

    This scenario is exactly what Zbigniew Brzezinski worried would make the US “geopolitically peripheral.” It spells the end of the unipolar world order.

    In short, we are on the path to the emergence of an alliance of powerful Eurasian countries and a multipolar world order.

    As the world order changes, I think there are two prominent investment outcomes we can bet on.

    Outcome #1: The US Dollar Will Lose Its Privileged Position

    The decline of America’s geopolitical influence is another enormous headwind for the US dollar.

    Suppose the world thinks the US military is the ultimate backstop of the US dollar. What does it mean for the US dollar’s credibility when a ragtag group of insurgents from one of the poorest countries can defeat the military which backs it?

    If the mighty US military couldn’t secure its partners in Afghanistan, how can it protect its other allies?

    Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Western European countries, and the Gulf Arab states are likely pondering this.

    It wouldn’t be surprising to see them make security arrangements with US adversaries—such as China, Russia, and Iran—that exclude the Americans.

    In fact, this has already happened with Saudi Arabia, a crucial player in the US-led world order. Saudi Arabia is the linchpin of the petrodollar system, which has underpinned the US dollar since Nixon removed its last links to gold in 1971.

    In a matter of weeks, Saudi Arabia has:

    1. Restored relations with Iran.

    2. Restored relations with Syria and welcomed it back to Arab League.

    3. Supported multiple OPEC+ oil production cuts against American wishes.

    4. Announced an end to the war in Yemen.

    5. Agreed to sell oil in other currencies.

    6. Decided to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

    The US recently sent its CIA director to Riyadh to tell the Saudis the Americans feel “blindsided” amid these seismic shifts in Saudi foreign policy.

    In short, a paradigm shift in Saudi policies signifies a paradigm shift in the US dollar because of the petrodollar system.

    However, Saudi Arabia is not the only US ally hedging its geopolitical bets recently. France, India, Japan, Mexico, Brazil, and others are making moves to cozy up to the Eurasian geopolitical block.

    The big question is, how long will the world continue to hold the paper liabilities of a bankrupt and declining government?

    While the US dollar is the leading global currency, it was already on a path of inevitable debasement and eventual collapse—even before considering the compounding effects of a multipolar world order.

    The only reason the US government has managed to avoid severe consequences from its monetary policies is the US dollar’s status as the world’s premiere reserve currency, thanks to Washington’s military and economic dominance that has prevailed since the end of World War II. However, as this dominance wanes, so will the dollar’s purchasing power.

    The US government’s ability to hide the effects of its rampant money printing by offloading trillions of dollars to foreigners is nearing its end.

    That’s terrible news for the US dollar.

    Now, that doesn’t mean I’m excited about the Chinese fiat currency—or whatever new monetary concoction the Eurasian block comes up with. Ultimately it will be nothing more than the liability of a new grouping of corrupt politicians and bureaucrats.

    Money is simply something useful for storing and exchanging value. That’s it.

    People have used stones, glass beads, salt, cattle, seashells, gold, silver, and other commodities as money at different times.

    Think of money as a claim on human time. It’s like stored life or energy.

    Unfortunately, today most of humanity thoughtlessly accepts whatever worthless digital and paper scrips their governments give them as money.

    However, money does not need to come from the government. That’s a total misnomer that the average person has been hoodwinked into believing.

    Fake money comes from government. Real money emerges from the market.

    Government currencies are terrible money because they are easy to produce with a potentially unlimited supply.

    The free market wouldn’t choose government confetti as money without laws forcing their use.

    Here’s another way to think of it.

    Imagine if Tony Soprano forced his neighborhood to use pieces of paper with his signature as money and threatened violence against anyone who disobeyed. That’s what governments are doing with their currencies.

    Here’s the bottom line with money. Hardness is the most important characteristic of a good money.

    Hardness does not mean something that is necessarily tangible or physically hard, like metal. Instead, it means “hard to produce.” By contrast, “easy money” is easy to produce.

    The best way to think of hardness is “resistance to debasement,” which helps make it a good store of value—an essential function of money.

    Would you want to put your savings into something somebody else can create without effort or cost?

    Of course, you wouldn’t.

    It would be like storing your life savings in Chuck E. Cheese arcade tokens, airline frequent flyer miles, or pieces of paper with Tony Soprano’s signature. Unfortunately, putting your savings into government currencies isn’t that much different.

    What is desirable in a good money is something that someone else cannot make easily.

    In short, as the US dollar loses its privileged position, I expect an ocean of capital to flow into apolitical, free-market, hard-to-produce monetary alternatives like gold and Bitcoin.

    That’s why I think the end of the unipolar world order will boost two major investment trends—the re-monetization of gold and The Bitcoin Supremacy—as the world seeks alternatives to the US dollar.

    Outcome #2: Commodity Supply Disruption

    The end of the unipolar world order means transitioning to a multipolar global trade regime—with serious implications for commodities.

    As I see it, there will be two main geopolitical blocks.

    First, there are the countries part of or allied with the West. I’m reluctant to call this block “the West” because the people who control it have values antithetical to Western Civilization.

    A more fitting label would be NATO & Friends.

    The other block consists of Russia, China, Iran, and other countries favorable to a multipolar world order.

    Let’s call them the BRICS+, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and other interested countries.

    Algeria, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, the UAE, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and numerous others have expressed interest in membership of BRICS.

    BRICS+ is not a perfect label, but it’s a decent representation of the countries favorable to the multipolar world order.

    While there already is friction in free trade—sanctions, tariffs, export bans, nationalizations, embargoes, strategic competition, etc.—between NATO & Friends and BRICS+, I expect it to grow substantially as the multipolar world order emerges.

    That will have serious consequences for commodities, which BRICS+ dominates.

    Take Russia, for example.

    Politicians and the media in the US often ridicule Russia as nothing more than “a gas station with nuclear weapons,” an inaccurate cartoonish depiction.

    Here’s the reality…

    Russia is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas, lumber, wheat, fertilizer, and palladium (a crucial car component).

    It is the second-largest exporter of oil and aluminum and the third-largest exporter of nickel and coal.

    Russia is a major producer and processor of uranium for nuclear power plants. Enriched uranium from Russia and its allies provides electricity to 20% of the homes in the US.

    Aside from China, Russia produces more gold than any other country, accounting for more than 10% of global production.

    These are just a handful of examples. There are many strategic commodities that Russia dominates.

    In short, Russia is not just an oil and gas powerhouse but a commodity powerhouse.

    As tensions between NATO & Friends and BRICS+ continue to rise, I expect it to disrupt commodity trade between the two further.

    Supply disruptions mean higher prices. That’s an outcome I think we can bet on.

    I expect countries in both geopolitical blocks will increasingly focus on securing critical commodities and ensuring access to stable supplies.

    I think we can bet on geopolitical competition between the two blocks causing increased demand and unstable supplies.

    That’s why obtaining exposure to strategic commodities as the world order changes could be a winning move.

    Here’s the bottom line…

    Unfortunately, most people have no idea what really happens when the world order changes, let alone how to prepare…

    The coming crisis will be much worse, much longer, and very different than what we’ve seen since World War II.

    Countless millions throughout history were wiped out financially—or worse—as the world order changed because they failed to see the correct Big Picture and take appropriate action.

    Don’t be one of them.

    That’s exactly why I just released an urgent new report with all the details, including what you must do to prepare.

    It’s called, The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now.

    Click here to download the PDF now.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 22:10

  • 3 Arrested Russian Scientists Accused Of Handing Hypersonic Missile Secrets To China
    3 Arrested Russian Scientists Accused Of Handing Hypersonic Missile Secrets To China

    A week ago, just as Ukraine was claiming to have shot down Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, three top Russian scientists who’ve reportedly worked on the country’s hypersonic program were arrested on suspicion of treason.

    The Kremlin had said the three face “very serious accusations”. They were identified as Anatoly Maslov, Alexander Shiplyuk and Valery Zvegintsev – and worked at the Khristianovich Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk. Shiplyuk was actually director of the institute, thus the highly visible case has sent shockwaves through the Russian ruling establishment and academic community.

    A Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ALBM being carried by a Mikoyan MiG-31K in 2018. Kremlin Photo

    The arrests were under mysterious circumstances, given the Kremlin didn’t spell out the details of the allegations against them, and immediately set off rare public outcry from other scientists angered over their detention. 

    When pressed on the nature and specifics of the case, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov only said that security services are being extra watchful concerning potential cases of “betrayal of the motherland” at this sensitive time of the war in Ukraine. 

    Now, on Wednesday, Reuters in an exclusive has cited sources saying the scientists are accused of betraying classified hypersonic program secrets to China. Director Shiplyuk in particular “is suspected of handing over classified material at a scientific conference in China in 2017, the sources said,” according to the report.

    “The 56-year-old maintains his innocence and insists the information in question wasn’t classified and was freely available online, according to the people, whom Reuters has chosen not to identify to safeguard their security.”

    He and his supporters in the academic and scientific community in Russia say that the information in question which may have been shared with Chinese counterparts was not at all secret. Per Reuters: 

    “He is convinced of the fact that the information was not secret, and of his own innocence,” one of the people said.

    The nature of the allegations against the ITAM director, who was arrested last August, has not been previously reported. The Chinese connection would make Shiplyuk the latest in a string of Russian scientists who have been arrested in recent years for allegedly betraying secrets to Beijing.

    Indeed such recent arrests of top officials have had a chilling effect inside Russia, particularly among circles which are critical of recent Kremlin decision-making regarding the Ukraine war and tactics utilized. 

    Did an information breach make the “unstoppable” hypersonic missiles more vulnerable to shootdown?

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The Reuters report has further speculated on just which top Chines officials may be on the other side of the suspected breach of classified technology and information: 

    ITAM, sited at the Academgorodok science campus near the city of Novosibirsk, says on its website that it is registered as a part of Russia’s military-industrial complex. The institute has had extensive international links including contacts with companies, universities and research centres across the world, according to a 2020 online document that outlined its work.

    Among the institutions listed was the China Aerodynamics Research and Development Center (CARDC), whose website includes several posts celebrating experimental breakthroughs relating to fighter jets and hypersonic missiles.

    The CARDC site names the center’s director as Wang Xunnian. According to two official Chinese local government websites, Wang is a major general in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

    One Russian colleague of the detained scientists has complained that handing off information to other allied international researchers should be seen as relatively benign. “It’s a long path. Just doing the basic research does not provide you with a missile,” the sources said.

    Given recent updated laws in the wake of the Ukraine conflict, a conviction on treason in Russia could bring anywhere from 20 years to life in prison.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 21:50

  • House Republican 'Speechless' After Senior FBI Official Admits Not Reading Durham Report
    House Republican ‘Speechless’ After Senior FBI Official Admits Not Reading Durham Report

    Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas) said he was “speechless” when he learned that a senior FBI official had not read the Durham report, which was released more than a week ago.

    Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas) speaks remotely as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken testifies before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on The Biden Administration’s Priorities for U.S. Foreign Policy on Capitol Hill in Washington on March 10, 2021. (Ken Cedeno-Pool/Getty Images)

    Pfluger, chairman of the Homeland Security Subcommittee on Counterterrorism, Law Enforcement, and Intelligence, questioned Jill Murphy, deputy assistant director of counterintelligence at the FBI, during a hearing on May 23.

    “Special Counsel Durham assesses that neither U.S. law enforcement nor the Intelligence Community appears to have possessed any actual evidence of collusion in their holdings at the commencement of the Crossfire Hurricane investigation,” Pfluger said. Crossfire Hurricane is the FBI codename for the agency’s 2016–17 FBI investigation into the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia.

    Pfluger continued, “The bureau subsequently discounted or willfully ignored material that did not support the narrative of a collusive relationship between [former President Donald] Trump and Russia.”

    “As the deputy assistant director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division, are you familiar with this report?” Pfluger asked.

    In response, Murphy said, “I have not read that report.”

    “I’m honestly speechless at this point in time,” Pfluger said in reply.

    When pressed on why she had not read the report, Murphy said, “I just haven’t had time.”

    “This is a sincere question. Does election collusion worry you?” Pfluger asked Murphy, who said it “obviously” worried her.

    “I would highly recommend reading that because we spent four years discussing that. There was uncorroborated evidence—the Durham report specifically outlines the outcome of that. It’s very disappointing to hear this.”

    Special counsel John Durham arrives at federal court in Washington on May 18, 2022. (Teng Chen/The Epoch Times)

    Durham Report

    John Durham, appointed by then-Attorney General William Barr in October 2020 to review the 2016–17 FBI investigation of alleged ties between Trump and Russia, found that the FBI “relied on “raw, unanalyzed, and uncorroborated intelligence” for its investigation.

    “The objective facts show that the FBI’s handling of important aspects of t

    Following the report’s release, the FBI acknowledged mistakes in its investigation of the Trump campaign, while Trump said in a statement that “the American Public was scammed.”

    “The Durham Report spells out in great detail the Democrat Hoax that was perpetrated upon me and the American people. This is 2020 Presidential Election Fraud, just like ‘stuffing’ the ballot boxes, only more so,” Trump added.

    Other Republicans at the hearing shared Pfluger’s astonishment that Murphy had not read the report.

    “I also was surprised at your answer—you haven’t read the Durham report,” said Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.). “Why is that not a matter of such import that you would want urgently to understand what the special counsel concluded about the work of the counterintelligence division? In such a grave case?”

    Murphy replied, “Sir, if you’d like a brief on the Durham report from the counterintelligence division, I’m happy to take that back.”

    “Wow, that sounds almost contemptuous,” Bishop said in response. “Do you intend to read it?”

    “I do intend to read it,” Murphy told Bishop.

    Read more here…

    he Crossfire Hurricane matter were seriously deficient,” Durham added in the report.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 21:30

  • Seattle Amazon Workers Plan Walkout To Protest Returning To Office, Layoffs
    Seattle Amazon Workers Plan Walkout To Protest Returning To Office, Layoffs

    Amazon workers are planning on protesting layoffs and requirements to return to the office (also referred to as simply “normal occurrences while participating in the workforce”) by walking out of the company’s Seattle headquarters next week. 

    Because that’s a great way to not land yourself on the layoff list...complain about working and then walk out of your job.

    Oh, and we almost forgot, they are also (of course) protesting “the company’s environmental impact”, according to ABC. The walkout is being planned for May 31, which will be one week after Amazon’s annual meeting, the report says. 

    The protest is also reportedly “contingent on at least 1,000 Amazon employees from the company’s Seattle headquarters agreeing to participate”. We’ll eagerly await to see whether or not enough brain-dead Amazon employees decide to help meet quorum, putting their job on the line for what we’re sure will ultimately turn out to be a meaningless protest. 

    Amazon took the decision in stride, at least publicly. “We respect our employees’ rights to express their opinions,” they said in a statement. Meanwhile Drew Herdener, senior vice president for communications at Amazon, claims there’s been “a good energy” on the company’s Seattle campus since people started returning to the office. 

    As we have noted, Amazon, like many other U.S. companies, is in the midst of a string of layoffs, cutting 27,000 jobs since November. As ABC notes, layoffs have occurred broadly, in numerous divisions, including advertising, human resources, gaming, stores, devices and Amazon Web Services. 

    The report concludes that “more than 20,000 workers signed a petition” to reconsider requiring returning to the office and says that “some employees” are complaining about the company’s inaction on addressing climate change. 

    We’re sure the news has Jeff Bezos very bothered…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 21:10

  • Jeffrey Sachs: The Ukraine War Was Provoked – & Why That Matters To Achieve Peace
    Jeffrey Sachs: The Ukraine War Was Provoked – & Why That Matters To Achieve Peace

    Authored by Jeffrey D. Sachs via Consortium News,

    George Orwell wrote in 1984 that “Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.” Governments work relentlessly to distort public perceptions of the past. Regarding the Ukraine War, the Biden administration has repeatedly and falsely claimed that the Ukraine War started with an unprovoked attack by Russia on Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.

    In fact, the war was provoked by the U.S. in ways that leading U.S. diplomats anticipated for decades in the lead-up to the war, meaning that the war could have been avoided and should now be stopped through negotiations. 

    Recognizing that the war was provoked helps us to understand how to stop it. It doesn’t justify Russia’s invasion. A far better approach for Russia might have been to step up diplomacy with Europe and with the non-Western world to explain and oppose U.S. militarism and unilateralism.

    NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, left, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev, Oct. 31, 2019. (NATO, CC)

    In fact, the relentless U.S. push to expand NATO is widely opposed throughout the world, so Russian diplomacy rather than war would likely have been effective.

    Two Main Provocations

    The Biden team uses the word “unprovoked” incessantly, most recently in Biden’s major speech on the first-year anniversary of the war, in a recent NATO statement, and in the most recent G7 statement.

    Mainstream media friendly to Biden simply parrot the White House. The New York Times is the lead culprit, describing the invasion as “unprovoked” no fewer than 26 times, in five editorials, 14 opinion columns by NYT writers, and seven guest op-eds. 

    There were in fact two main U.S. provocations.

    The first was the U.S. intention to expand NATO to Ukraine and Georgia in order to surround Russia in the Black Sea region by NATO countries (Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria Turkey, and Georgia, in counterclockwise order).

    The second was the U.S. role in installing a Russophobic regime in Ukraine by the violent overthrow of Ukraine’s pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, in February 2014. The shooting war in Ukraine began with Yanukovych’s overthrow nine years ago, not in February 2022 as the U.S. government, NATO, and the G7 leaders would have us believe. 

    Biden and his foreign policy team refuse to discuss these roots of the war. To recognize them would undermine the administration in three ways.

    First, it would expose how the war could have been avoided, or stopped early, sparing Ukraine its current devastation and the U.S. more than $100 billion in outlays to date.

    Second, it would expose Biden’s personal role in the war as a participant in the overthrow of Yanukovych, and before that as a staunch backer of the military-industrial complex and very early advocate of NATO enlargement.

    Third, it would push Biden to the negotiating table, undermining the administration’s continued push for NATO expansion.

    Check the Archives 

    The archives show irrefutably that the U.S. and German governments repeatedly promised to Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not move “one inch eastward” when the Soviet Union disbanded the Warsaw Pact military alliance.

    Nonetheless, U.S. planning for NATO expansion began early in the 1990s, well before Vladimir Putin was Russia’s president. In 1997, national security expert Zbigniew Brzezinski spelled out the NATO expansion timeline with remarkable precision. 

    U.S. diplomats and Ukraine’s own leaders knew well that NATO enlargement could lead to war. The U.S. scholar-statesman George Kennan called NATO enlargement a “fateful error,” writing in The New York Times that,

    “Such a decision may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion; to have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy; to restore the atmosphere of the cold war to East-West relations, and to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking.”

    President Bill Clinton’s Secretary of Defense William Perry considered resigning in protest against NATO enlargement. In reminiscing about this crucial moment in the mid-1990s, Perry said the following in 2016:

    “Our first action that really set us off in a bad direction was when NATO started to expand, bringing in eastern European nations, some of them bordering Russia. At that time, we were working closely with Russia and they were beginning to get used to the idea that NATO could be a friend rather than an enemy … but they were very uncomfortable about having NATO right up on their border and they made a strong appeal for us not to go ahead with that.”

    In 1998, William Burns, then the U.S. ambassador to Russia and now the C.I.A. director, sent a cable to Washington warning at length of grave risks of NATO enlargement:

    “Ukraine and Georgia’s NATO aspirations not only touch a raw nerve in Russia, they engender serious concerns about the consequences for stability in the region. Not only does Russia perceive encirclement, and efforts to undermine Russia’s influence in the region, but it also fears unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences which would seriously affect Russian security interests. Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.” 

    Ukraine’s leaders knew clearly that pressing for NATO enlargement to Ukraine would mean war. Former Zelensky adviser Oleksiy Arestovych declared in a 2019 interview “that our price for joining NATO is a big war with Russia.”

    During 2010-2013, Yanukovych pushed neutrality, in line with Ukrainian public opinion. The U.S. worked covertly to overthrow Yanukovych, as captured vividly in the tape of then U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and U.S. Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt planning the post-Yanukovych government weeks before the violent overthrow of Yanukovych.

    Nuland makes clear on the call that she was coordinating closely with then Vice President Biden and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, the same Biden-Nuland-Sullivan team now at the center of U.S. policy vis-à-vis Ukraine. 

    Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and Secretary of State Antony Blinken meeting with members of Ukraine’s Rada in Kiev, May 6, 2021. (State Department/Ron Przysucha)

    After Yanukovych’s overthrow, the war broke out in the Donbass, while Russia claimed Crimea. The new Ukrainian government appealed for NATO membership, and the U.S. armed and helped restructure the Ukrainian army to make it interoperable with NATO. In 2021, NATO and the Biden administration strongly recommitted to Ukraine’s future in NATO.

    In the immediate lead-up to Russia’s invasion, NATO enlargement was center stage. Putin’s draft NATO-Russia Treaty (Dec. 17, 2021) called for a halt to NATO enlargement. Russia’s leaders put NATO enlargement as the cause of war in Russia’s National Security Council meeting on Feb. 21, 2022. In his address to the nation that day, Putin declared NATO enlargement to be a central reason for the invasion. 

    Historian Geoffrey Roberts recently wrote:

    “Could war have been prevented by a Russian-Western deal that halted NATO expansion and neutralised Ukraine in return for solid guarantees of Ukrainian independence and sovereignty? Quite possibly.”

    In March 2022, Russia and Ukraine reported progress towards a quick negotiated end to the war based on Ukraine’s neutrality. According to Naftali Bennett, former prime minister of Israel, who was a mediator, an agreement was close to being reached before the U.S., U.K. and France blocked it. 

    While the Biden administration declares Russia’s invasion to be unprovoked, Russia pursued diplomatic options in 2021 to avoid war, while Biden rejected diplomacy, insisting that Russia had no say whatsoever on the question of NATO enlargement. And Russia pushed diplomacy in March 2022, while the Biden team again blocked a diplomatic end to the war. 

    By recognizing that the question of NATO enlargement is at the center of this war, we understand why U.S. weaponry will not end this war. Russia will escalate as necessary to prevent NATO enlargement to Ukraine. The key to peace in Ukraine is through negotiations based on Ukraine’s neutrality and NATO non-enlargement.

    The Biden administration’s insistence on NATO enlargement to Ukraine has made Ukraine a victim of misconceived and unachievable U.S. military aspirations. It’s time for the provocations to stop, and for negotiations to restore peace to Ukraine.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 20:50

  • Russia Blasts US Threats To Sanction Georgia As Direct Flights Resume
    Russia Blasts US Threats To Sanction Georgia As Direct Flights Resume

    Both the United States and European Union are mulling sanctions on the Republic of Georgia due to ongoing trade ties and Georgia’s newly receiving direct commercial flights from Russia.

    Russia, which is Georgia’s second largest trading partner, has recently moved to thaw relations, given in part its ongoing isolation from the West, with President Putin this month signing a decree (on May 10) ending a Russian ban on direct flights which had been in effect since 2019 (following large anti-Russian protests). 

    Additionally, for the first time in two decades Georgian citizens can now enter Russia without a visa (for up to 90 days).

    The governing Georgian Dream party has welcomed the moves, saying “The beneficiaries are our citizens who have to take a detour at triple the cost” – in reference to the estimated hundreds of thousands of ethnic Georgians living in Russia.  

    Tbilisi has this week responded to Moscow by issuing formal approval of the first Georgian operators to conduct regular flights to and from Moscow.

    While Georgia has not joined in on Western sanctions against Russia, it has long pledged to not allow its territory to be used to circumvent the sanctions. But this has presented issues over aircraft maintenance and parts. The US and EU reactions to resumption of air travel is seen in the following: 

    Earlier, US State Department Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel also warned of sanctions risks for companies at Georgian airports if they “service aircraft subject to import and export controls.” EU Spokesperson Peter Stano, too, warned of safety concerns on May 11, saying that due to the sanctions, 95% of the Russian fleet is unable to “update or upgrade” their aircraft. 

    “The European Union encourages Georgia, which is aspiring to become EU candidate country, to align with the existing EU sanctions … against Russia also in the area of aviation and to remain vigilant regarding any possible attempts to circumvent the existing sanctions,” Stano said. In another statement on May 16, the EU spokesperson said the EU “regrets” the decision to resume Georgia-Russia flights which “raises concerns in terms of Georgia’s EU path.”

    Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvil has pushed back, saying Wednesday, “What the EU trades with Russia in four days, we trade with Russia in one year,” in an interview at the Qatar Economic Forum.

    “When it comes to economic sanctions […] Georgia’s trade turnover with Russia is less than $1 billion” a year, he underscored. “This is ridiculous, isn’t it? That $1 billion could not affect Russian economy.”

    Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova also blasted threats against Georgia coming from Washington. 

    “There’s no other way to call [the statements by the State Department] than interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states,” she told a press briefing. “We regard such mentoring statements from Washington as interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states and in their relations with third countries and overt pressure.”

    The EU is now as part of a 11th round sanctions package on Russia mulling adding in punitive measures against third parties caught facilitating Russian sanctions-busting activities. Ironically Georgia is widely seen as pro-Western and US-friendly, but if the West goes after Tbilisi with aggressive economic measures this could quickly change. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 20:30

  • Withdrawing Your Own Cash? NatWest Bank Wants To Know Why… And See Proof
    Withdrawing Your Own Cash? NatWest Bank Wants To Know Why… And See Proof

    Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,

    A reader sent me this graphic which is circulating on social media.

    Whenever I see an unattributed image like this going around I want to verify it, lest it be photoshopped, a deep-fake or some derivation of  “urban legend”.

    Sure enough, if you go to NatWest bank’s website, right here – you see this cash withdrawal policy spelled out for all to see:

    This isn’t actually new

    Here in Canada, for at least a few years – predating COVID, the big four banks have been routinely asking you why you are taking cash out whenever you withdraw anything over a couple thousand dollars. However, you can tell them pretty well anything (“because I want it”,  “none of your business”  or even “to blow it all on booze and hookers”, will all work).  I haven’t heard of a case where a withdrawal has been denied based on the reason supplied, yet.

    But now that we’re starting to see it formalized in policy language of banks, we can all see where this is going.

    The war on cash has been in full swing for a long time, India banned large denominations bills  in 2016 and will now start eliminating them from the monetary base. France has been signalling a prohibition on cash payments over 1,000 francs since 2013 and finally, quietly, it seems, made it part of the framework this year.

    It portends a wider initiative across the entire Eurozone (who is also trying to lump in crypto payments under the restrictions).

    This is all to lay the groundwork for the march into Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) which will seek to accomplish three objectives of Late-Stage Globalism:

    1. Eliminate privacy – making all transactions trackable, traceable and taxable in realtime.

    2. Introduce controls on how, when and why you are spending your own money. Think China-style social credit, which in its Westernized form will almost certainly involve personal carbon footprint quotas.
      And most importantly (otherwise we wouldn’t be calling it “Late Stage Gobalism”):

    3.  Extend the runway of fiat currencies – which are about to hit the wall as a long-wave debt super-cycle reaches its crescendo.

    The antidote to all this, is of course, Bitcoin. The only digital asset that is scarce, truly decentralized, has frictionless portability, and is backstopped in physical reality (the “7th property”) in away gold isn’t.  It embodies all other properties of sound money:

    Via “The 7th Property: Bitcoin and the Monetary Revolution” by Eric Yakes

    There are still many who scoff at the idea of “magic internet money” becoming viable at all, let alone the main bulwark against the coming CBDCs.  We know cash is doomed, we know any state or central bank issued digital substitutes will simply be linear, digital extensions of fiat: backed by nothing, based on debt, but with added layers of technocratic surveillance and control.

    With the mother of all economic recessions dead ahead (if not here already), and the fiat banking system more or less insolvent, the value proposition for CBDCs (a.k.a subservience-tokens) will be Universal Basic Income, with all encompassing strings attached.

    Anybody relying on the State for their economic subsistence will have their lives gamified via their smartphones, their  carbon footprints metered, their energy usage subject to approval. Such will be the life of a CBDC-serf.

    When those days come, the bank won’t have to ask you why you want some of your own money and how you are going to spend it.

    You’re the one who will have to ask them …for permission.

    *  *  *

    My next ebook is The CBDC Survival Guide and I’m sending it free to Bombthrower subscribers when it’s done (early June). In the meantime, subscribe now and get The Crypto Capitalist Manifesto while you wait. Follow me on Nostr, or Twitter. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 20:10

  • Post-Fukushima Shift: Japan Court Rejects Citizens' Concerns, Paving Way For Nuclear Power Restart
    Post-Fukushima Shift: Japan Court Rejects Citizens’ Concerns, Paving Way For Nuclear Power Restart

    On Wednesday, a district court in Japan dismissed residents’ calls to halt the restart of a nuclear reactor. This represents a victory for the Pacific island nation, grappling with soaring energy costs fueled by the prolonged war in Ukraine. 

    The Japan Times reports Sendai District Court in northeastern Japan has ruled Tohoku Electric Power can restart the No. 2 unit of the Onagawa plant early next year. It will become the first unit to restart since the nuclear power plant was idled after the devastating 2011 earthquake and tsunami that triggered the meltdown at Fukushima. 

    Judge Mitsuhiro Saito rejected residents’ calls that claimed an evacuation plan was inadequate. Residents said if a nuclear accident occurred, many wouldn’t be able to escape outside an 18.5-mile radius of the plant because of traffic jams. They said they would be exposed to radiation. 

    “It cannot be assumed that a specific danger of an accident exists that leads to the abnormal release of radioactive materials,” said Saito.

    Tohoku Electric was seeking a dismissal of the lawsuit because evacuation plans had already been approved by the country’s nuclear disaster prevention council. 

    “The court acknowledged our claim.

    “We will continue to cooperate as much as possible to improve the effectiveness of the evacuation plans,” Tohoku wrote in a statement. 

    In response to the ruling, Tohoku shares jumped nearly 8% in Tokyo trading on Wednesday. 

    In the last nine months, Japan has reevaluated its energy policies following a decade of paralysis of nuclear power generation as fossil fuel energy costs soar. 

    Here’s our reporting on the U-turn: 

    Meanwhile, Asia is rapidly building nuclear power plants: because it’s the future of decarbonized power grids.

    Infographic: Asia's Going Nuclear | Statista

    The U-turn in Japan’s policy comes after we recommended uranium stocks in December 2020. We stated back then that nuclear would be accepted as one of the most stable “clean energy” sources to meet silly climate change targets. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 19:50

  • The FBI Has Crossed The Rubicon
    The FBI Has Crossed The Rubicon

    Authored by Sam Faddis via AND Magazine substack,

    The expression “crossing the Rubicon” refers to the actions of Julius Caesar in crossing the Rubicon River and marching on Rome. Roman armies were forbidden to do so. The rule was very practical. The Romans understood the danger of allowing a large armed force to march on the capital city.  To allow this might spell the end of the republic. Best that popular conquering generals and their armies stay a safe distance away and respect the democratic institutions at the heart of Roman democracy.

    Caesar broke the rule. He marched on Rome. He didn’t care what the Senators thought. The rest is history. Within a generation, there was no republic.

    The FBI has now taken similar action. It has signaled in the clearest possible manner it does not care what the people or their elected representatives think. It will do what it pleases, and the consequences be damned.

    The recently released Durham report paints a graphic picture of an agency out of control. The FBI did not blunder into an investigation of Donald Trump, his campaign, and his associates. The FBI undertook to deliberately destroy Trump and those around him including General Flynn. The FBI took unto itself the power to decide who could be President.

    That fact has now been publicly exposed. The whole nation can see that the FBI acted in violation of law and every tradition we have had since the inception of the republic. The FBI has responded with remarkable clarity.

    It did nothing wrong. It does not care what Durham (or countless whistleblowers) say(s). It does not care what Congress thinks. It will do as it pleases.

    The Assistant Director of the FBI for Counterintelligence, Suzanne Turner, just testified before Congress. Asked about the Durham report, the one that said her agency had run amok and tried to stage what amounted to a coup, she responded by saying she had not bothered to read the report nor had she been briefed on it.

    When pressed further she offered to take questions back to the FBI and see if she could get someone else to answer them. Contempt dripped from her every word and every mannerism. The concerns of the people’s elected representatives were clearly of no interest whatsoever to her.

    The House Oversight Committee is investigating the possibility that the current President of the United States took money from foreign interests, including Communist China, in exchange for policy decisions. In other words, the House is pursuing evidence that suggests pretty strongly that Joe Biden works for Beijing. As part of that investigation, the House has demanded from the FBI copies of reports that apparently show the FBI knew about this some time ago.

    The FBI has refused to provide the documents. Meanwhile, there are continuing reports that whistleblowers from within the federal workforce who provide information about the Bidens are being retaliated against and sidelined. In some cases, they have had their security clearances taken away and been suspended without pay. That’s what happens to FBI agents who think Congress is still in charge.

    House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) has blasted the FBI for impeding the investigation into the Biden family’s business dealings, calling the federal agency “very patronizing.” He has also said that the FBI does not “respect anyone.” All of that is crystal clear. The days when the FBI would scurry to take action and avoid Congressional disfavor are long gone. The Bureau is above all that now.

    Meanwhile, the FBI has announced that it destroyed all of the evidence it gathered into the actions of Hillary Clinton, the Clinton Foundation, and the mountains of foreign money that flowed to the Clintons when Hillary was Secretary of State.  This comes after revelations that the FBI shut down four separate investigations into the Clinton campaign in the runup to the 2016 election.  While the FBI was manufacturing evidence of a non-existent Trump-Putin connection it was actively covering for Hillary – and it is continuing to do so.

    Three years ago, the FBI was handed Hunter Biden’s laptop which literally drips with evidence not just of corruption but of Chinese intelligence connections to Joe Biden and his associates. As far as anyone can tell, the FBI continues to sit on that computer and intends to take no action of any kind to investigate its contents.

    Information just surfacing indicates that the FBI routinely used FISA warrants to spy on domestic political opponents inside the United States.

    The FBI no longer answers to the elected representatives of the American people nor does it care what they think. It did not get sloppy. It did not make some errors in judgment. Its leaders decided that they were entitled to do whatever they chose and to ignore our laws, our traditions, and the judgment of the nation’s citizens.

    Most importantly, however, nothing that has happened has changed any of that. The FBI is not chastened. It is not scrambling to change course and make reforms. As an institution, it does not believe that it has done anything wrong.  It will continue to act in the future precisely as it has in the past.

    The FBI has crossed the Rubicon. The consequences of that action, if not addressed immediately, will shake the foundations of the republic.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 19:30

  • "There's Poop Everywhere": San Francisco's Office District Not Only A Ghost Town, It's Also Covered In Sh*t
    “There’s Poop Everywhere”: San Francisco’s Office District Not Only A Ghost Town, It’s Also Covered In Sh*t

    Urban Alchemy employees pick up trash while people gather belongings in the Tenderloin neighborhood. | Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images

    Everyone knows that San Francisco is the nation’s largest public toilet – requiring the city to employ six-figure ‘poop patrol’ cleanup team, however a new report from the city Controller’s Office really puts things in poo-spective.

    For starters, feces were found far more often in commercial sectors, covering “approximately 50% of street segments in Key Commercial Areas and 30% in the Citywide survey,” second only to broken glass as can be seen in the ‘illegal dumping’ section.

    If you’re wondering about the city’s fecal methodology, look no further than a footnote on page 43;

    Feces also includes bags filled with feces that are not inside trash receptacles. Feces that are spread or smeared on the street, sidewalk, or other objects along the evaluation route are counted. Stains that appear to be related to feces but have been cleaned are not counted. Bird droppings are excluded.

    As far as where most of the poo is found, Nob Hill takes the top spot, followed by the Tenderloin and The Mission districts.

    Via the San Francisco Standard

    “It’s terrible; this street is covered,” Tenderloin resident Joe Souza told The San Francisco Standard earlier this month. “There’s poop everywhere. You always see it along the wall and in front of the garage there.”

    Meanwhile, nearly 2/3 of key commercial routes reported moderate to severe street litter, vs. 41% of the citywide streets struggling with the same problem.

    Via the San Francisco Standard

    As the San Francisco Standard reports;

    San Francisco’s commercial and residential streets are also highly tagged up, with every neighborhood except one—Visitacion Valley—reporting high levels of graffiti last year. The issue is once again worse in commercial areas, of which 71% said they had severe or moderate graffiti.

    A Clean City team in the Tenderloin power washes the sidewalk on Hyde Street in San Francisco. | Paul Chinn/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images

    “In terms of actual counts of graffiti observed, there were about 10 times (160,000 vs. 16,000 respectively) as many instances of graffiti reported in the Key Commercial Areas survey in comparison to the Citywide sample,” the report said.

    And San Francisco’s favorite cleanliness fixation, human or animal feces, continues to be a sore spot for the city: Almost half of the surveyed commercial areas observed feces. Citywide, that figure was just 30%.

    *  *  *

    San Francisco’s poopocalypse comes amid a staggering commercial office vacancy rate as a combination of pandemic-era work-from-home policies, and people fleeing the city’s notorious violence and poo-covered streets have made the once-thriving city into a ghost town.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 19:10

  • JP Morgan Bets Big On Carbon Removal
    JP Morgan Bets Big On Carbon Removal

    Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

    • JP Morgan has committed to invest over $200 million in buying credits for carbon removal.

    • JP Morgan is also helping carbon capture businesses with financing.

    • JP Morgan is also one of the biggest financiers of fossil fuel projects.

    JP Morgan is betting big on carbon removal and is buying credits from direct air capture developers to offset its environmental footprint, officials at the largest U.S. bank have told The Wall Street Journal.

    JP Morgan has committed to invest over $200 million in buying credits for carbon removal and is also helping carbon capture businesses to take off.

    “We’re jumping in the pool all in,” JP Morgan’s head of operational sustainability, Brian DiMarino, told the Journal an interview.  

    “This is us putting our weight and our capital behind something we believe is truly important to bring to market now,” DiMarino added.  

    Last year, JP Morgan Securities LLC served as sole placement agent for direct air capture (DAC) technology developer Climeworks as it raised $650 million in an equity round.

    Last month, JP Morgan and several other companies announced that they had joined Frontier, an advance market commitment to accelerate carbon removal. The new members in Frontier – Autodesk, H&M Group, JP Morgan Chase, and Workday – will commit to purchase a combined $100 million of permanent, high-quality carbon removal over the next eight years, bringing Frontier’s total advance market commitment to over $1 billion. 

    Commenting on the agreement, DiMarino said last month, “Scaling technological innovation, including around carbon removal, will play a critical role in the transition to a more sustainable future.”

    Yet, JP Morgan is also one of the biggest financiers of fossil fuel projects.

    For the first time since 2019, JP Morgan Chase dropped from the top spot of the biggest backer of fossil fuels.

    JP Morgan is no longer the world’s biggest financier of fossil fuels.

    Last year Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) became the top bank funding oil and gas, a report by environmental groups showed last month.

    Overall, U.S. banks dominated fossil fuel financing, accounting for 28% of all fossil fuel financing in 2022. JP Morgan Chase remains the world’s biggest funder of fossil fuels since the Paris Agreement, while Citi, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America are still among the top 5 fossil financiers since 2016.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 18:50

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May 24

Today’s News 24th May 2023

  • Could Falling Private Jet Demand Be Another Sign Rich Pull Back On Spending Ahead Of Economic Turbulence?
    Could Falling Private Jet Demand Be Another Sign Rich Pull Back On Spending Ahead Of Economic Turbulence?

    A slump in the use of private jets in the US could suggest that wealthy individuals are reducing their spending in response to the rising threat of recession in the next 12 months. 

    Bloomberg data shows private jet flights across the US peaked in early 2022 and have been sliding ever since. Takeoffs and landings fell 4.5% in the first quarter compared with the same quarter last year. The drop accelerated to 9.3% in April compared with an 8.6% decline in March, possibly a sign demand is crumbling. 

    With the industry under pressure and capital markets in a volatile state, Flexjet, the second-largest US operator of private jets behind NetJets Inc., was forced to shelve its SPAC last month. 

    Even though private jet demand is still above 2019 levels — many wealthy individuals have yet to return to commercial airlines in a post-pandemic era. Still, with all the new demand, the rich are cutting back in the first half of 2023 as recession risks rise. 

    Some industry insiders welcome the end of the private jet boom that took off during Covid. 

    Kenn Ricci, chairman of Flexjet, told Bloomberg: 

    “Thank God it’s not what it was last year.” He said his company saw annual flight hours jump to 145,000 from 90,000 before the pandemic. 

    Sliding private jet demand comes as recent debit and credit card data published by the Bank of America Institute shows wealthy folks are pulling back on spending. 

    Besides waning demand, a recent JPMorgan Chase report showed average asking price for private jets fell 1.2% in March from February to $12.8 million. There’s some easing of prices after the boom over the last few years. Still, the average asking price was 7% above prices from last year due to tight inventory. 

    A combination of wealthy folks reducing private jet flights and pulling back on spending comes as Bloomberg data shows recession probabilities for the next 12 months have reached 100%. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 02:45

  • War – NATO Beaten By "A Restaurant Owner & A Bunch Of Convicts"?
    War – NATO Beaten By “A Restaurant Owner & A Bunch Of Convicts”?

    Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

    In Bakhmut/Artyomovsk, all of NATO, all 31 member nations, were defeated by a restaurant owner and a bunch of convicts, is how I saw someone describe it. That of course caricatures the situation somewhat (Wagner is well-organized), but it’s not that far off. And that spells a serious problem for NATO.

    All of those 31 members may have lots of control over their media, but in the end you can’t endlessly deny being defeated.

    So what will NATO do now? They will double down, and then again. And at the end of the “doubling down road” lie nuclear weapons. Not Russian nukes, because as my friend Wayne wrote the other day, their high-precision hypersonic missiles make nukes look crude and primitive, Middle Ages territory. But NATO/US never developed such weapons. They spent 10+ times as much money on weapons, still do, and -comparatively – ended up with bows and arrows.

    Nuclear bombs are good only to create widespread panic and destruction. But that includes your own destruction, because of Mutually Assured Destruction protocols. Which also go back almost as far as the bow and arrow. If you fire a nuclear missile, one very much like it will land on your head a few minutes later. End of story, end of you.

    US/NATO, the “collective west”, the hegemon, has lost. And has missed the moment when that occurred. Because hegemon equals hubris. Look at what they’ve all still been saying, and you notice they can’t see, and can’t acknowledge, that -and how- the world has changed. Not just this weekend, and the 9 months before, in Artyomovsk. It’s the entire story of Ukraine: it illustrates how the West “lost it”.

    The US plotted a coup and moved NATO’s borders east, and Russia reacted exactly how they said they would. No nukes, no nazis, no NATO. They got the last two, and know they can expect the first too. But still the west maintains Russia’s special operation was entirely unprovoked. Look, they’re not even listening anymore. They would like to negotiate and end all this, but negotiate about what? Putting AZOV back on the borders of the Donbass, so they can kill more Russians there? Not going to happen.

    It’s not only about weaponry, though that plays a major role: the hegemon can no longer make its demands based on military might. It’s been surpassed.

    Nor can it make demands based on the dollar’s reserve currency status, and it caused that itself. Weaponization of the currency has backfired to the extent that de-dollarization has become a process that can no longer be halted.

    The moment that Saudi prince MbS turned his back on “Joe Biden” is a milestone. Because once he did that, it was obvious many would follow. In central Asia, if you are Kazachstan or Uzbekistan, why on earth would you opt to go with G7/US/NATO instead of BRICS? Why go with the power that is waning, and not the one in ascendancy? Russia is your biggest neighbor, strongly connected to China which is building its BRI network in your region, and the nearby Arab states are about to join that network. Why would you link yourself to the G7? When you know all your neighbors do not?

    Then there are the voices that say the US will push for a bigger and wider war, perhaps including American troops. First, because NATO is losing, and second, because it could mean American boots on the ground, and presidents don’t lose elections in wartime. I’ve said before, I would expect them to go with Polish troops first, possibly on Polish territory too. But the Polish don’t appear all that eager anymore. And neither would any other European NATO country. German and French and Dutch troops are in no shape for war, and in the US over 70% of potential troops are grossly overweight and/or handicapped in some other way.

    Ukraine had perhaps the best boots on the ground force in Europe, financed and trained since 2014 by NATO, and they lost to a caterer and a loose group of hired hands. You’re not going to win that. Your only option is long distance weapons, missiles, planes, you name it. But NATO has no advantage in that over Russia. To put it mildly.

    The sole thing that’s in your favor is that Russia doesn’t seek to destroy you. They want to live in peace and trade with you. Same thing for China. NATO equals unipolar. But the world has moved towards multipolar. Ergo, NATO is obsolete. Ukraine will never reconquer its “lost” territories, and Zelensky will move to some property in Italy or Florida, never to be heard from again, unless perhaps in his obituary. The deaths of some 300,000 of his countrymen will be on his conscience.

    But also on that of all the “leaders” who have sent their second-hand armory to Kiev. They are just as responsible for all those deaths. The world has changed a lot in the past few years, and ignorance is no excuse if you are a “leader”, or a “Joe Biden”. Not even if you’re “just” a voter or reader. Those deaths will be on your head when you go see St. Peter at the gate.

    PS: Don’t be surprised if “Joe Biden” sends US boots on the ground anyway. No hegemon has ever given up power lightly. That part of the road is yours, US and EU voters. You may have to fill up the streets like you’ve never seen. The rest, the majority, of the world will be waiting to see if you do or not. They’re prepared for either of the two options

    *  *  *

    Support the Automatic Earth via Patreon.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 02:00

  • COVID Vaccine-Injured Sue Biden Administration Over Censorship
    COVID Vaccine-Injured Sue Biden Administration Over Censorship

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A woman who suffered severe nerve damage after receiving a COVID-19 vaccination and four others with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 vaccine injuries launched a lawsuit against President Joe Biden and his administration on May 22.

    Brianne Dressen, co-chair of React19, in New York on Jan. 6, 2023. (Jack Wang/The Epoch Times)

    Top government officials violated the plaintiffs’ rights to free speech and peaceful assembly when they pressured Big Tech companies to crack down on people sharing their experience after receiving the COVID-19 vaccines, Brianne Dressen, the woman, and the other plaintiffs say.

    “Through threats, pressure, inducement, and coercion, Defendants now work in concert with social media companies to censor content the government deems ‘disinformation,’ ‘misinformation,’ and ‘malinformation’—a feat that the government could never lawfully accomplish alone,” the 124-page suit, filed in U.S. court in southern Texas, states.

    In addition to Biden, defendants include Rob Flaherty, a top adviser to Biden; White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre; the Department of Homeland Security; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; and Surgeon General Vivek Murthy.

    Defendants did not immediately respond to requests for comment, or could not be reached.

    Dressen hailed the lawsuit as a major development for those reporting to be suffering from vaccine injuries.

    “People injured by the COVID vaccines in the United States have not been able to file suit anywhere, under any circumstance,” she told The Epoch Times. “So this is a landmark case for Americans injured by the COVID vaccine.”

    COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers are largely immune from litigation in the United States due to the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act declaration entered by the Trump administration in early 2020. Most other vaccine manufacturers are also shielded from liability under the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act.

    Censorship

    The five people who experienced serious problems following vaccination are joined by Ernest Ramirez, whose son died after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine. They’ve repeatedly been censored by platforms like Twitter and Instagram as they tried to  share their stories.

    Ramirez, for instance, saw a GoFundMe that sought to raise funds for him to travel to Washington to share his son’s story taken down. GoFundMe claimed the account was removed for violating conduct the company prohibits. GoFundMe did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    Another plaintiff, Nikki Holland, meanwhile, posted videos on TikTok regarding her experiences after being vaccinated, including the injuries she suffered. TikTok said the videos violated guidelines such as one against posting “violent and graphic content.”

    “When I really started to share and open up about things, I started to notice that a lot of stuff was being taken down and censored,” Holland told The Epoch Times. “That adds a whole new world of questioning to motive and what’s really going on because … why would you censor something you might need to look into to protect millions of others?”

    TikTok did not immediately return a query.

    The other plaintiffs are Shaun Barcavage, a former nurse who has been on disability leave since suffering medical problems after receiving Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine; Kristi Dobbs, a dental hygienist who suffered “debilitating medical injuries” after a shot of Pfizer’s vaccine; and Suzanna Newell, who is also on disability leave due to problems following vaccination.

    The right to peacefully assemble was also violated when Facebook and other big tech platforms disbanded groups where those with suspected or confirmed adverse reactions following vaccination gathered, according to the suit.

    One Facebook group called “A Wee Sprinkle of Hope” was shut down after a group member posted an infographic of symptoms people have experienced following COVID-19 vaccination and Dressen shared a link to a press conference at which she had shared about her symptoms.

    Facebook’s message to Dressen was that the group violated the company’s “Community Standards on misinformation that could cause physical harm.” Facebook did not immediately respond to a request for an explanation from the group.

    The removal of the groups robbed those suffering injuries after a COVID-19 vaccine of key gathering places for the exchange of information as they sought to figure out how to treat their often-debilitating conditions. Dressen said she is aware of multiple suicides as a result, because the censorship sparked feelings of helplessness amid the suffering.

    The deplatforming was “devastating, especially when you’re being censored and no one’s listening to you,” Holland said.

    Evidence

    Evidence unearthed in an ongoing case against the government, as well as internal Twitter documents, underpin the new case.

    Discovery in Missouri v. Biden litigation, lodged by the attorneys general of Missouri and Louisiana against the Biden administration, has revealed that officials pressured WhatsApp, Facebook, and other technology companies to censor users talking about problems following COVID-19 vaccination, including posts that accurately outlined the lack of evidence for COVID-19 vaccines among certain populations.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/24/2023 – 00:05

  • Unlike Washington, Americans Are Far From Their Personal 'Debt Ceiling'
    Unlike Washington, Americans Are Far From Their Personal ‘Debt Ceiling’

    When the New York Fed‘s latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit revealed that U.S. consumers’ credit card debt had not seen its usual post-holiday-season dip in the first quarter of 2023 all while total consumer debt had risen past $17 trillion for the first time, some reporters rang the alarm bells, saying that Americans were showing signs of financial stress amid high inflation and rising interest rates.

    And while it’s true that delinquency transition rates, i.e. the share of current debt becoming delinquent, increased for the fifth consecutive quarter for most types of credit, delinquency rates are still low, historically speaking, with less than 3 percent of total consumer debt delinquent, i.e. at least 30 days late.

    Moreover, one could argue that the absence of a drop in credit card balances in the first quarter is a sign of robust consumer spending rather than financial stress.

    After all, credit cards are mostly used as a payment method rather than a borrowing method these days.

    And lastly, as Statista’s Felix Richter reports, as opposed to their government, Americans are far from reaching their debt ceiling, at least as far as credit cards are concerned.

    Infographic: Americans Far From Maxed Out on Credit Card Debt | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    With a total credit card balance of $986 billion and a total limit of $4.5 trillion, U.S. consumer actually have $3.5 trillion in untapped available credit on their cards.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/23/2023 – 23:45

  • Green Projects Hit Iron Wall
    Green Projects Hit Iron Wall

    Authored by James E. Hanley via RealClear Wire,

    Developers looking to build thousands of wind turbines off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast are coming up against a force even more relentless than the Atlantic winds: the Iron Law of Megaprojects, offering a warning of the trouble ahead for green-energy projects. 

    The Iron Law, coined by Oxford Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, says that “megaprojects” — which cost billions of dollars, take years to complete, and are socially transformative — reliably come in over budget, over time, over and over. 

    From Boston’s Big Dig to California’s high-speed rail to New York’s 12 years-overdue and 300% over-budget East Side Access rail project, big boondoggles routinely demonstrate the validity of the rule. 

    Offshore wind projects are not immune to the Iron Law, regularly experiencing vast cost overruns before a single watt is generated.  

    The New York state government, looking to replace oil- and gas-fired powerplants with hundreds of wind towers off Long Island, set out in 2019 to create an offshore wind supply chain from scratch, beginning with a massive state-funded turbine fabrication facility about 100 miles north of New York City on the Hudson River. 

    Ground still hasn’t even been broken, but the budget certainly has: The price of that Port of Albany facility has already doubled from $350 million to $700 million. An additional $100 million may be needed for equipment costs, raising the final price tag to $800 million. 

    A similar situation is playing out in New London, Connecticut, where a state-funded pier facility being built to support that state’s offshore wind buildout has more than doubled in price from an original estimate of $95 million to $250 million.   

    And in Massachusetts, developer Commonwealth Wind has asked the state to scrap its power purchase guarantees and rebid the project, arguing that inflation and supply chain problems mean the project is not financially viable under its current contracts. 

    Big projects tend to exceed their cost projections for many reasons. One is the unanticipated, and sometimes unprecedented, complexity of these projects. Further uncertainties and costs arise from the challenge of navigating the red tape of the modern regulatory state. In addition, there is the risk of inflation for projects that take years, sometimes decades, to develop. Underlying all these is often a failure to spend enough time on careful planning that treats reality as a fundamental constraint. 

    But sometimes project sponsors may simply worry that accurate cost projections could scare away public support at the outset, and choose to employ what Prof. Flyvbjerg politely calls “strategic misrepresentation.” 

    As former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown said, “If people knew the real cost from the start, nothing would ever be approved. . . . Start digging a hole and make it so big, there’s no alternative to coming up with the money to fill it in.”  

    If that sounds too cynical, note that the current Chair of the Connecticut Port Authority has admitted that when officials first proposed the pier facility, they already knew it would cost more than they were claiming.   

    Ironically, the New York and Connecticut projects aren’t even big enough to be considered megaprojects, and yet even they have run into the Iron Law of being over budget and behind schedule. The challenges won’t diminish with bigger and more ambitious green energy projects. 

    In New York, the state’s huge Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act — of which the Port of Albany project is the first substantial investment — is projected to cost between $270 and $290 billion. At that price it is a gigaproject composed of numerous individual megaprojects. 

    The benefits, mostly in the form of greenhouse gas reductions, are supposed to be up to $415 billion. But if the overall cost of the policy climbs by merely 55 percent, which is in the normal range for megaprojects (and much less than the Port of Albany cost overrun), the costs will exceed the benefits, creating a net loss for New Yorkers.  

    If costs balloon to twice the initial estimates, which is not uncommon, the state stands to spend more than more than a hundred billion dollars more than gained in benefits That would be a loss of over $30,000 per New York household by 2050.  

    And that’s assuming the benefits are as good as promised. It gets even worse if, as is common, the benefits have been overstated.  

    The tale of megaprojects is a cautionary one for the whole country as we attempt to transition away from fossil fuels. Cost estimates for a nationwide transition span from $4.7 trillion to over $60 trillion – almost three times U.S. GDP. Such uncertainty should give us pause for thought before jumping wildly into the financial unknown. 

    If we’re not careful, we may be digging Willie Brown-style holes, and politically and financially we may find ourselves in too deep to ever get ourselves out. 

    James E. Hanley is a Fellow at the Empire Center for Public Policy

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/23/2023 – 23:25

  • Pentagon Can't Account For Thousands Of Ultra-Expensive F-35 Parts Globally
    Pentagon Can’t Account For Thousands Of Ultra-Expensive F-35 Parts Globally

    Just three weeks ago Defense News published an extensive investigative report which posed the question in its headline, Lockheed eyes new F-35 parts deal, but can it handle wartime demands? The report introduced: 

    By the end of the year, a new and unusual deal for the F-35 fighter′s spare parts could be in place — one that would flip the current supply model on its head.

    If the proposed performance-based logistics contract works the way F-35 manufacturer Lockheed Martin has promised, it will save the government money, improve the availability of spare parts and give the company greater flexibility on how it assists repairs, such as making it easier to fix a broken part without fabricating a new one.

    Fast-forward to Tuesday, and the congressional watchdog Government Accountability Office (GOA) released a devastating report which reveals the entire question of “saving the government money” to be laughable and way off. 

    Image: US Air Force

    Bloomberg writes based on the new GOA findings that “The Pentagon can’t account for hundreds of thousands of spare parts worth millions of dollars that are stored worldwide for the US and allies for its costliest weapon, the F-35 jet, according to congressional auditors.” So perhaps the Pentagon should think about simply locating the missing ones first before a giant Lockheed parts overhaul is put into place. 

    Even long before this, going years back, the controversial program to develop the ultra-costly stealth multirole combat aircraft produced periodic headlines like the following in 2020: The Pentagon’s $35 Trillion Accounting Black Hole.

    The fact that the Department of Defense has failed to pass a DOD-wide audit for the fifth consecutive year has compounded the problem which has been months or years in the making, to the tune of millions billions lost – which could eventually add up to a one-and-a-half trillion dollars black hole. 

    This as the GOA report has confirmed the Pentagon’s F-35 program office doesn’t provide oversight for the parts: 

    Unlike scores of GAO reports and other assessments that analyze the fighter jet’s cost, schedule and flying performance, the new audit delved into the more mundane and largely invisible work of supporting the aircraft once it’s delivered to international customers. The operation and support bill for the F-35 may reach an estimated $1.4 trillion through 2088.

    Allies don’t own parts and tap into the Defense Department’s worldwide shared pool of spares, including engines, tires, landing gear and items such as bolts, screws and fasteners. The Pentagon’s F-35 program office doesn’t maintain accountability over the parts, “the total value of which is unknown,” the GAO said.

    It is manufacturer Lockheed Martin which solely “tracks” the records (supposedly), given the Pentagon has been “unable to provide the cost, total quantity, and locations of spare parts in the global spares pool.”

    According to the GOA report: 

    The lack of visibility into the inventory “increases the risk of misstatement on DOD’s financial statements and the risk of mismanagement of the F-35 global spares pool,” it said.

    All of this comes the same week that multiple media reports and former top US officials have highlighted that contractor price-gouging is common and routine when it comes to the gargantuan defense budget, at taxpayer’s expense of course. For example, former Pentagon insiders told Newsweek that the Biden administration’s ‘blank check’ approach to Ukraine has resulted in a massive arms flow to Kiev “no matter the expense.” Naturally this has resulted in diminished incentive to engage in serious and timely audits for things like expensive jet parts, and to determine where they are globally. 

    Lockheed continues to be front and center in these whistleblower and former DoD official tell-alls…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Meanwhile, the US continues to modernize its fleet of fighter jets and strategically place them in key US allies, such as Germany, Japan, and South Korea, creating a ‘friends circle’ of fifth-generation fighters around Russia and China.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/23/2023 – 23:05

  • What A US Default Would Mean For The Repo Market
    What A US Default Would Mean For The Repo Market

    Two weeks ago we published a lengthy report looking at the hypothetical consequences of a US default – including “Clearinghouse Collapse And Shockwave Of Catastrophic Treasury Margin Calls” – which again are purely hypothetical: as we first said last week…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    … and as Stifel’s Brian Gardner confirmed just a few days later…

    Federal revenues cover only 75 percent of outlays so at some point, without an increase in the debt limit, Treasury will be unable to pay all of the government’s bills.  It seems clear that Treasury will prioritize the payment of principal and interest on U.S. Treasuries, so the chances of a default on Treasuries is remote.  Also, it is unfathomable that the government would not pay Social Security recipients or meet payroll of the American military. On any given day, however, Treasury would likely have to delay payments of some obligations. Depending on who the creditor is (a government contractor, veterans’ benefits, other social safety net payments, etc.), delayed payments would likely increase political pressure which would, in turn, increase the chances of reaching a debt ceiling deal, but would also be accompanied by some economic disruption and possibly a downgrade in the credit rating of U.S. government debt. 

    … because despite all the posturing, the US can and will prioritize debt and interest payments and avoid a technical default, even if it means that some 20 million deep state bureaucrats go unpaid for a week or two.

    But since we are dealing with hypotheticals, below is a quick snapshot courtesy of Curvature Securities’ analyst Scott Skyrm who looks at what the impact of a US default (again, purely hypotehtical) would be on the repo market.

    As Skyrm explains, in the Repo market, the debt ceiling dynamics boils down to the fact that no cash investor wants to hold a defaulted Treasury as collateral. As a result, cash investors will pull their cash from the market as the drop-dead date approaches, which according to Janet Yellen may be as soon as June 1, for the simple reason that there is a massive $80 billion net cash outflow from the Treasury on that day, one which tips the cash balance into the red.

    Going back to the repo market, ahead of a potential X-Date, cash investors who pull their money from the repo market will move to the fed funds market or into Money Market Funds. Even more cash will then flow into the Fed’s RRP facility, sucking up liquidity from the market.

    When cash leaves the Repo market, there will be a spike in funding pressure, and overnight rates could move to the top of the target range – trading around 5.25%-5.30%.

    While not there yet, Skyrm observes that the Repo market is starting to feel the effects of cash leaving. Term GC bids are thin and rates continue to tick higher each day.

    Meanwhile, no one will accept short-dated bill collateral for term trades. This is why there is now a record, gaping chasm between Bills maturing on May 30, and those maturing just 48 hours later, on June 1 (or, rather, not maturing).

    Also, customers have sold so much term collateral though June, July, and August that there are few bids left and they’re all substantially higher than just a few days ago.

    Yet, curiously, given the technical default issues with early June bills, one would think they would have substantial shorts. That’s not the case, despite the unprecedented divergence in May vs June bills. In fact, all of the early June bills are trading between 5 and 10 basis points below GC.

    Then, of course, who is willing to short-sell bills trading between 50 and 100 basis points above GC?  What happens if you are right, and the US does default. Good luck getting paid on your shorts…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/23/2023 – 22:45

  • University Of California Moves Toward Hiring Illegal Immigrants In Violation Of Federal Law
    University Of California Moves Toward Hiring Illegal Immigrants In Violation Of Federal Law

    The University of California (UC) system is working towards providing jobs to illegal immigrants despite a federal law banning the practice.

    Royce Hall, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA

    In a Thursday statement by UC President Michael Drake and Board of Regents Chair Richard Leib, the university system announced the appointment of a working group that will consider relevant issues to providing employment opportunities to all students regardless of immigration status. By November, the group is expected to have developed an implementation plan and legal strategy which will include the next steps.

    “The University is committed to ensuring that all students, regardless of their immigration status, can pursue and attain a world-class UC education,” reads the statement. “This should include providing enriching student employment opportunities to all students.“

    According to The Hill, “The Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 established civil and criminal penalties for employers who knowingly hire undocumented immigrants and those not authorized to work in the United States. “

    Yet, the LA Times reports that UCLA legal scholars have a theory that the law does not specifically apply to states and state entities such as UC.

    According to Regent John Perez, the UC will need time to figure out how to implement the plan, telling the Times “this is too important to get wrong.”

    But the university could face legal action over its plan and has been considering any potential public backlash it would receive and the legal risk for faculty and staff who hire the students. 

    Rep. Darrel Issa (R-Calif.) wrote a letter to California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) earlier this week to warn against the plan, arguing that the Supreme Court has repeatedly held that federal immigration law tops state or local laws. He said the plan could cause UC to lose federal funding and hurt its students. -The Hill

    There are around 44,000 students not covered by DACA who attend college in California, of which around 4,000 attend UC, according to the Times. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/23/2023 – 22:25

  • Parents Sue Elite Schools For 'Indoctrinating' Their Kids With DEI 'Bait And Switch'
    Parents Sue Elite Schools For ‘Indoctrinating’ Their Kids With DEI ‘Bait And Switch’

    Angry parents are suing elite private schools for ‘indoctrinating’ their children with so-called ‘diversity, equity and inclusion’ (DEI), Bloomberg reports.

    Following the murder of George Floyd, the $50,000 per year Brentwood School in Los Angeles announced that it was reimagining its purpose “with an eye toward anti-racism” and DEI. Parent Jerome Eisenberg, whose daughter attends the school, called it a “bait and switch” on parents – suing the school last year for breach of contract, civil rights violations and emotional distress.

    “The curriculum change shifted away from teaching students critical thinking skills — how to think — and started indoctrinating them into what to think, based on Brentwood’s preferred political fad of the moment,” reads Eisenberg’s lawsuit – which entered private arbitration in November.

    The issue – which has become a major point of contention in red states such as Florida, where governor Ron DeSantis (R) has fought to ban DEI in public schools – has now become a nationwide effort by concerned parents to protect their children from what they see as a racist education that makes white students a lifelong target, and uses historical revisionism to sow seeds of division.

    “There is an increased appetite for parents using the legal process to fight for their kids in a way that just wasn’t as prevalent before,” said attorney Sara Goldsmith Schwartz of Massachusetts-based Schwartz Hannum PC – which frequently represents private schools.

    Eisenberg’s lawyer, David Pivtorak, says he believes that legal complaints over DEI in schools have increased, and that the actual number may be understated due to arbitration clauses such as the one at Brentwood.

    According to the NAACP’s Legal Defense Fund, the legal battles are painting a “misleading” picture about DEI.

    “The majority of parents want their children to attend a school that is diverse and inclusive,” said Jin Hee Lee, director of strategic initiatives. “and the majority of Americans understand that we have a very tragic legacy of slavery and Jim Crow and racial subjugation that we’re still dealing with in this country.”

    Parents who oppose DEI in private face an uphill battle. While parents whose kids go to public school can argue that the government is infringing on their 1st Amendment rights, those with kids attending private schools largely waive those rights.

    “Private schools are bound by their own policies and not the US Constitution,” according to law professor Jennifer Rippner of Indiana University.

    When parents do sue private schools, it’s usually for breach of contract, according to New Hampshire education lawyer Linda Johnson, who represents independent schools and consults with them on managing their legal risk. The process sometimes starts off with “a 10-page, single-space letter addressing everything that the parent thought the school did wrong to try to justify a repayment of tuition,” she said.

    Many of the disputes arise out of school disciplinary action, Johnson said. In the current environment, that can have political overtones. -Bloomberg

    At Manhattan’s $60,000 per year Spence School, parents Adam and Michelle Parker sued in 2019 over disciplining their daughter for posting a text exchange on Instagram in which they joked about dressing up as slaves and indigenous people for Halloween. Her punishment was a half-day “in-home- reflection,” while the school held several grade-wide assemblies to shame the girl for what she had done.

    The Parkers say their daughter was mocking racists, not promoting racism, and that Spence disciplined her before even seeing the post. In doing so, they claim that the school perpetuated a “false narrative” and “had gotten it wrong” – in addition to failing to convene a “community standards committee” as stipulated in their enrollment contract.

    While the suit was dismissed in 2020, a New York appeals court revived a breach-of-contract claim.

    According to Johnson, the education lawyer, suits which focus on narrow claims of unequal or arbitrary discipline against private school have the highest chances of success. If the school’s handbook lays out guidelines for infractions but doesn’t include a disclaimer to the effect of “we maintain the flexibility to handle them the way we think is necessary under the circumstances,” the school may face legal peril, she said.

    That said, parents of kids attending elite schools will have a hard time challenging curricula, according to Philadelphia-based education lawyer, Steven Ludwig.

    “If a person doesn’t like what is being taught, they can go somewhere else.”

    Except, as Bloomberg notes, that’s not always so easy.

    Private schools that have embraced DEI are frequently also those with the strongest academic reputations and the best records of placing graduates in Ivy League and other elite colleges — which themselves have been criticized as bastions of wokeness. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, a noted anti-DEI crusader, was called out for hypocrisy when it emerged that he sent his daughters to a Houston prep school that teaches DEI.

    Former investment banker Andrew Gutmann caused a stir two years ago when he wrote a letter to other parents at Manhattan’s Brearley School urging them to reject Brearley’s “obsession with race” and saying he was pulling his daughter, Lauren, from the top-ranked school, where tuition is about $60,000. 

    Brearley head Jane Fried shot out an email calling the letter “deeply offensive and harmful” and reaffirming the school’s commitment to being “inclusive” and “antiracist.”

    In an interview, Gutmann said his family wasn’t “looking for a conservative education,” but they “just want what anybody would’ve used to call a traditional liberal arts education.”

    Andrew Gutmann took his daughter, Lauren, out of Manhattan’s Brearley School and says he struggled to find her a “traditional liberal arts education.”Source: Bloomberg

    Since withdrawing his daughter from Brearley, Gutmann said it’s been “nearly impossible” to find a school that is both academically rigorous and not “politicized.” After looking at private schools in New Jersey and Florida, he opted to home school – and will be sending her to a UK boarding school in the fall.

    Now, Gutmann is running as a Republican in Florida’s 22nd congressional district, which includes former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. His campaign announcement begins with his letter to Brearley.

    “My words were read by millions of people across America, and they helped ignite what we now call the parents’ movement and the fight against woke education,” said Gutmann, who called out his allies in the fight against DEI – including Florida-based rights group, Moms for Liberty, which has been at the forefront of efforts to ban DEI-based books and influence school boards in favor of conservatives.

    According to McGovern, the attorney, “Every school across America, and in many ways around the world, is dealing with this increased polarization.“

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/23/2023 – 21:45

  • "Once Again The Apparently Unthinkable Becomes The Inevitable"
    “Once Again The Apparently Unthinkable Becomes The Inevitable”

    By Michael Every of Rabobank

    Prepare To Be Buffetted

    Today’s Daily is not about Warren Buffet but geopolitics’ impact on markets, analogized with a buffet.

    Dig into this: the G7 took us a step towards decoupling: they say “de-risking”, but it’s same thing. This is ‘not about keeping China down, but lifting the Global South up’ by diversifying strategic imports and exports. But: (i) who can say what’s a strategic when little things can be – for want of a nail, as they say; (ii) friendshoring will still find China supplying key inputs to other EM, and the impetus will be to move the whole supply chain, upstream to downstream; and (iii) diversification means zero-sum math – import more from one country, you import less from others, ceteris paribus, and export less to one country, you export more to others. Yes, the G7 can friendshore and China still be better off… but only if it shifts to consumption, services, and imports rather than production, manufacturing, and exports. Which it won’t/can’t.

    If Chinese consumers had a CNY every time they were told they will drive growth, they would be driving it. Yet Xi says China’s focus is on supply chains and key industries, not real estate, services, and finance; and those “lying flat” must get married and/or go to the countryside. That economic model means investment/exports >consumption/imports, and it can’t be a win-win – it’s mercantilism. It’s like tourists at a hotel buffet who only take plates of shrimp, no carbs, soup, or veggies, and the restaurant owner isn’t allowed to go to a Chinese hotel and reciprocate at their buffet. As a result, we rapidly end up with different restaurants for different clientele.

    Yes, China’s development model was previously used by the West, who gorged at the global buffet before being into DEI – while still not sharing any shrimp, or vaccines. But history shows that system always ends up in a food-fight, literally. It doesn’t matter if President Biden wants to dial back (“Biden Sees Coming Thaw with China, Even as He Rallies Allies Against Beijing”): the mercantilist dynamic won’t allow it. If the US says, “Beat you to the shrimp!” and China that “the international community does not and will not accept the G7-dominated Western rules that seek to divide the world based on ideologies and values,” while calling UK PM Sunak a “US eunuch”, things only get nastier.

    Yes, a Bloomberg op-ed from Niall Ferguson argues the US should use détente to buy time to rearm and reshore. Yet if China knows the US needs time, why not act? Note that it banned Micron from the US for security reasons just after Biden’s olive branch. Expect more of that when China’s Commerce minister meets USTR Tai this week, who will say, “People who only take shrimp have shellfish habits.”

    “It’s not rational for China to escalate,” say voices shocked at The Wall Street Journal noting “China’s Xi Mimics Mao’s Crisis Response in Sweeping Indoctrination Drive” and the Guardian saying, “China crackdown on business has Maoist roots.” The same article quotes a professor of Chinese management at Cambridge University saying the recent crackdown on consultants, etc., lies in CCP ideology, and one must “dig into the Maoist roots in Chinese institutions and political economy to try to understand ideas that Xi has””. That’s what I wrote in 2021’s ‘Pro-Fund or Profound Revolution?’. The CEOs and Wall Street asset managers who still don’t do so have perhaps eaten so much shrimp they now think like one.

    And China can escalate in lots of different ways.

    Ironically, it could even buffet the US ahead with big fiscal stimulus for its stale economy, boosting Western commodity inflation on top of that from its re/friend-shoring into the 2024 election. Who knows if that is on the menu ahead, but Beijing is trying to cook up imported commodities paid in CNY via PBOC swaps, which would give it more room to do so. Yes, CNY would likely slump on the extra policy loosening –which would also be an attempt to push out more exports– and US tariffs, and rates, would rise in tandem. The Fed’s Bullard and Kashkari will both back that move for sure, seeing as one talked of two more rate hikes this year yesterday, and the other that a June pause shouldn’t mean an end to policy tightening. Daly was more cautious, as was Bostic, while Barkin is on the fence.

    We can also expect crabby moves from the US Congress, which is not pro détente.  Recent testimony there from former USTR Lighthizer shows how sentiment has shifted on Capitol Hill: “Since 2001, we have directly transferred more than $6 trillion to China through our annual trade deficits…During the Cold War with the Soviet Union, it would have been inconceivable for the US to allow such a massive wealth transfer to happen,” from the guy supposed to be pro trade, and, even more bluntly, “When I’ve talked to someone who doesn’t believe they’re such a serious threat I’m always like, ‘Oh, you must have some investments over there – I get it.” US CEOs or asset managers with China investments must be shifting uncomfortably in their seats, and not just because the Shanghai stock exchange has only returned 4% over the last five years of ‘buy now!’ sell-side notes: indeed, they fear ‘The China Hawk in Washington Rattling Corporate Boardrooms’.

    Of course, it hardly needs saying that the US and G7 are not up for détente with Russia. National Security Advisor Sullivan just stated it’s okay for Ukraine to use Western missiles to attack Crimea, because that’s not part of Russia, and President Biden signed off on F-16s for Kyiv: once again the apparently unthinkable becomes the inevitable, and at scale given the number of F-16s available. Note that as Australia is experimenting with a 4-day week(!), Russia may go to 6!

    So, the unsavory dish today is the warning not to buy geopolitical ‘risk-on’ fairy tales. The inedible item left at the far end of buffet, to be recycled into a pasta bake by Friday, is that this matters for inflation and rates to the upside, or a lack of downside.

    Help yourself, if so.

    And now, for those who think politics doesn’t impact on markets, back to the drama of the US debt ceiling – which also makes my point. As does that Warren Buffet sold his shares in Taiwan’s TSMC on perceived fat geopolitical tail risks; The Times alleges national politics influenced LIBOR lower; and it is again made clear that the Pentagon was watching SVB all the way.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/23/2023 – 21:25

  • What If AI Ultimately Creates Many More Jobs Than It Destroys
    What If AI Ultimately Creates Many More Jobs Than It Destroys

    Two months ago, Goldman sparked uproar across Wall Street when the bank forecast that the AI revolution could lead to as many as 300 million highly skilled (or at least not menial labor) layoffs across the US and Europe and predicted that some 18% of global work could be automated with AI…

    … with the biggest impact falling on legal and admin jobs, with social science and architects and engineers also in danger of being made obsolete (much more in the full Goldman note available here to pro subs).

    Goldman’s back of the envelope calculation inspired none other than hedge fund legend Steve “expert networks” Cohen to predict that the market is going up as a result of the margin boost that AI-driven layoffs will unleash.

    As Bloomberg reported, the billionaire added that he’s worried about the “types of jobs that will be displaced,” but more broadly, he expects profit margins to improve, which would reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to curb inflation with additional interest rate hikes. This would, in turn, boost markets, he said. Of course, “boosting profit margins” is a polite way of saying mass layoffs are coming.

    Cohen joined other hedge fund managers who have expressed enthusiasm for AI. Stan Druckenmiller and Lee Ainslie both took positions in chipmaker Nvidia a beneficiary of the AI boom, during the first quarter, in anticipation of even more AI-driven upside .

    “AI is very, very real and could be every bit as impactful as the internet,” Druckenmiller said last week at the 2023 Sohn Investment Conference.

    But what if this growing consensus is wrong, and what if AI ends up creating more jobs than it destroys?

    That’s the argument made by Deutsche Bank head of global research Jim Reid, who has written a lengthy report explaining why “History suggests AI will ultimately create not destroy jobs” (and available to pro subs ).

    As Reid reminds us, there is a long history of resistance to technology. As far back as 1589, Queen Elizabeth I of England refused to grant the inventor of a mechanical knitting machine a patent lest it put manual knitters out of work. Such concerns were accelerated by the arrival of the Industrial Revolution. In 1772, Thomas Mortimer wrote how machines would “exclude the labor of thousands of the human race, who are usefully employed”. Famously, in the early 19th century a group of English textile workers known as the Luddites destroyed machinery, in part because of fears it would take their jobs away (they were right). Similar narratives have subsequently resurfaced on the eve of every major technological breakthrough.

    However, Reid argues that history tells us that technology does not create unemployment, at least not in the long term. He illustrates this by looking at long-term unemployment data, using the median of the G7 countries. It shows that unemployment has oscillated based on economic cycles, rather than any technological waves. In fact, today’s median G7 unemployment rate of 3.8% is beneath the 5% UK rate at the start of the series in 1755.

    “So even though virtually all of the jobs of 1755 no longer exist, the automation of different tasks did not lead to an ever-increasing spiral of unemployment” Reid argues and concludes that “technology has always created the wealth and time to free up labor for alternative more productive employment and created industries and jobs we never knew we needed at the time.”

    While this is correct, what Reid’s analysis ignores is the social upheaval and short-term spikes in unemployment after any major new technological shift. Indeed, what his charts omits is the countless wars since 1755: maybe his unemployment rate is so low because it counts all the mass mobilization and army units as employed workers (it wouldn’t be too much of a stretch: after all the Biden admin counts a record number of multiple jobholders as individual workers, allowing the admin to benefit from a record low unemployment rate). That said, there is a tongue-in-cheek admission that not all may be as rosy as represented when Reid says that “it is no coincidence that unemployment is associated with various negative health outcomes.” Like war?

    We are curious to see just how far the current social safety net – whether in the US or China – will stretch when there is a sudden spike in unemployment, and how many of the democrat-controlled coastal cities will burn down when millions of people suddenly find themselves without a job (even if eventually AI will result in potentially better jobs for most, albeit with a lot of retraining).

    Could this time be different? Reid concedes that “there are obvious arguments why it might be given the speed of possible adoption of AI and the type of jobs it could put at risk” which are critical caveats: after all, if it takes 5 years to retrain someone to find gainful employment in an AI world, it’s the same as an unemployment shock; and in this economy in which virtually nobody has any idea how to deal with a lengthy stretch of unemployment, we doubt the ending would be happy.

    Still, Reid is optimistic and concludes that “even if there are short-term disruptions to labor markets, we desperately need the productivity-boosting potential that AI brings. In turn this will soon likely create more opportunity, jobs and wealth for society.”

    We are confident that the Steve Cohens and CEOs of the world agree, even if those 300 million workers who are about to be made obsolete may have second thoughts.

    Much more in DB’s full note available here to pro subs.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/23/2023 – 21:05

  • Hopkins: The War On Reality (Revisited)
    Hopkins: The War On Reality (Revisited)

    Authored by CJ Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

    Reality isn’t what it used to be. It never really was, but that’s another story. This one isn’t about reality per se. It’s about the War on Reality, the one we’re in the middle of, the war that started when the War on Terror was cancelled in the Summer of 2016. It’s actually an extension and an evolution of the War on Terror, and the War on Populism, and the rollout of the New Normal in 2020 … but that is also another story. I want to focus on the war that is raging currently, on the Internet, in people’s workplaces, homes, among friends and families, and in people’s heads. I’m pretty sure you know the war I’m talking about, regardless of which “side” you feel you are on.

    The War on Reality is a civil war, but it is much more than just a civil war. It is an asymmetrical, polymorphous, metastatic, multiplicitous war. An ontological free-for-all. It has no conventions or rules of engagement. There are no battle lines. The battle is everywhere. Alliances shift from day to day. It is chaos, unrelenting, inescapable chaos. An omnipresent, immaterial, omnipotent organism attacking itself. It is continual, and completely unwinnable. It is unwinnable because it has already been won. It ended in victory the moment it began, and now we’re doomed to go on fighting it forever, or until some less ethereal leviathan is born, or reborn, out of its ashes.

    Unfortunately, that’s rather likely, the less ethereal leviathan scenario. It may not come about in my lifetime — and, selfishly, I’m hoping it doesn’t — but this state of affairs cannot continue indefinitely. As I wrote in an essay in June of 2021 …

    “The global capitalist ruling classes are implementing a new official ideology, in other words, a new ‘reality.’ That’s what an official ideology is. It’s more than just a set of beliefs. Anyone can have any beliefs they want. Your personal beliefs do not constitute ‘reality.’ In order to make your beliefs ‘reality,’ you need to have the power to impose them on society. You need the power of the police, the military, the media, scientific ‘experts,’ academia, the culture industry, the entire ideology-manufacturing machine. There is nothing subtle about this process. Decommissioning one ‘reality’ and replacing it with another is a brutal business. Societies grow accustomed to their ‘realities.’ We do not surrender them willingly or easily. Normally, what’s required to get us to do so is a crisis, a war, a state of emergency, or … you know, a deadly global pandemic. During the changeover from the old ‘reality’ to the new ‘reality,’ the society is torn apart. The old ‘reality’ is being disassembled and the new one has not yet taken its place. It feels like madness, and, in a way, it is. For a time, the society is split in two, as the two ‘realities’ battle it out for dominance. ‘Reality’ being what it is (i.e., monolithic), this is a fight to the death. In the end, only one ‘reality’ can prevail.”

    I wrote that almost two years ago, in the relative calm before the storm of fascistic, hate-drunk mass hysteria and systematic official persecution that was unleashed on “the Unvaccinated” in the months that followed. If your memory of 2021 is hazy, my year-end column, The Year of the New Normal Fascist, or this video compilation by Matt Orfalea might help sharpen it back up. Since then, the madness of the reality-changeover in progress has intensified, albeit somewhat more subtly … or at least Keith Olbermann is not shrieking hatred like a meth-addled Goebbels.

    GloboCap, Inc. and its innumerable subsidiaries, agents, assigns, political puppets, media goons, and other loyal minions are desperately endeavoring to enshrine the official Covid-19 narrative in the annals of “history.” According to new figures from the WHO, “almost 15 million excess deaths” (or “a total of 336.8 million lost life-years”) had been caused by the virus by the end of 2021, none of which had anything to do with ventilators, or the classification of anyone who died of anything (i.e., cancer, heart disease, an auto accident, etc.) who had also tested positive as a “Covid death.” Previously perfectly healthy young people are dropping dead left and right from heart attacks and other “natural” (or “undisclosed”) causes that have nothing to do with the experimental “vaccines” that they did not need but were coerced into taking, which saved millions or 100 million lives. The masks that didn’t work worked, except that they didn’t, but that was only if you studied how they worked in reality. Being locked down, forced to wear medical-looking masks, gaslighted and terrorized by official propaganda, bullied, segregated, censored, demonized, and otherwise systematically tortured, was actually good for people’s mental health, except for “people with existing mental health conditions, and children, and people with disabilities, and adolescents, and people without financial or social security nets.”

    Meanwhile, cognitively dissonant New Normals are taking to the Internet to claim that no one knew better at the time, and that, OK, sure, “mistakes were made,” but if we “science-denying conspiracy theorists,” who they censored, demonized, and systematically persecuted for over two years, had just spoken up …

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    I could go on, but you get the picture … or, rather, you either do or you don’t. Because it’s not just the folks at GloboCap, Inc. that are fanatically waging this War on Reality. Everybody and their brother is trying to ram their “reality” down everyone’s throat. You got the “Viruses Do Not Exist” people. You got the “There Are No Neo-Nazis in Ukraine” people. The “Putin Is Our Savior” people. The Vote Blue Cult. The Multipolar people. The Transgendered People’s Army. The Doomsday Clock Hucksters. The Folks Who Still Listen to NPR. The Insurrection Truthers. The Insurrection Deniers. The 9/11 Truthers. The Moon-Landing Truthers. The Cult of Trump. The Church of Russiagate. The Rothschild Obsessives. The Anti-Racism Racists. The Anti-Anti-Semitism Anti-Semites. The Mass Formation Movement. The Cult of Marx. The Cult of Capital. The Climate Change Fanatics. The Musk Cult. The list goes on and on.

    Historically, we humans have not done very well in such psychotic ontological environments. When “reality” is shattered into a thousand little shards, and things fall apart, and the center does not hold, we tend to get rather scared, and confused, and agitated. We start to panic. We try to put “reality” back together again. This does not work. This worsens our panic. We start looking around for a new “reality.” We start looking for a savior, a leader, a Führer, someone with a vision, and the will, and the power, to impose a new “reality” on the ontological chaos that is making us so confused and agitated, and scared, and angry, and restore some sense of ideological cohesion so that we don’t have to think about “reality” on a moment-by-moment basis anymore.

    This is the time of dime-store messiahs, tinpot tyrants, zealots, gurus, hustlers, hosers, scam artists, quacks, snake oil salesmen of every variety, fanatical revolutionary movements, new religions and political parties, and so on. Typically, eventually, once the hapless masses have been repeatedly duped, and bilked, and betrayed, and gaslighted and humiliated to the point where they can’t even think anymore, literally cannot think because their brains are broken, and they just want someone to make it all stop … well, to rephrase an old Buddhist platitude, “when the masses are ready, the despot will appear.”

    I think you know how this story ends.

    The fascinating thing is, GloboCap, Inc. (i.e., global capitalism, corporatism, or whatever you need to call the supranational network of global corporations, governments, banks, military contractors, media and entertainment conglomerates, pharmaceutical behemoths, assorted oligarchs, non-governmental governing entities, etc., that are currently running the world) cannot afford to let that happen, and is tirelessly working to prevent that from happening.

    Traditional (i.e., 20th Century) totalitarianism does not work for GloboCap, Inc. Capitalism, though it can adapt to anything, has never been inherently inclined toward fascism or any other form of totalitarianism. Totalitarianism is a value-coding machine. Its objective is to completely code society with its values, its official ideology (i.e., “reality”). Every aspect of society, not just politics, culture, and so on, but the most intimate aspects of people’s lives.

    Capitalism is a value-decoding machine. Its objective is to completely decode society of any values that impede the free flows of capital, rendering everything and everyone a de facto commodity, transforming societies into markets. It can adapt to totalitarianism and other varieties of despotism when necessary, but left to its own devices, or … you know, granted dominion over the entire Earth, and every creeping thing that creeps upon it, it sets about decoding and destabilizing values, destabilizing value and meaning itself, until, ultimately, everything means anything, or nothing, or whatever the market determines it means or is worth at any given moment.

    The point is, the ongoing War on Reality is not a means to an end. It is the end. The official ideology (i.e., “reality”) that GloboCap, Inc. is implementing is not a set of official values or beliefs. It is the absence of any values or beliefs, any non-commodifiable values and beliefs. Values and beliefs are fine, as long as they’re just empty signs, logos, meaningless identity statements, and not principles and beliefs you are trying to live by, and that you are crazy enough to fight to preserve. Those kind of values have to go, so that the people of the New Normal future can be free to believe that war is peace, ignorance is strength, two plus two equals five, men have periods, Donald Trump is a Russian secret agent and literally Hitler, Vladimir Putin (who is also literally Hitler) invaded Ukraine for no reason whatsoever, or certainly not because of anything to do with GloboCap, Inc., or NATO, or the non-existent Ukrainian neo-Nazis, and then destroyed his own pipelines in the Baltic Sea, or whatever blatantly ridiculous nonsense they (i.e., the people of the New Normal future) are told to pretend or to actually believe by Rachel Maddow and the other talking heads you saw in Orfalea’s video.

    And, if that doesn’t sound like your kind of future, or reality, the “everything is a floating signifier” reality … no worries, you can always drop out of the “mainstream” and join the carnival of “conspiracy theorists, anti-vaxxers, Covid deniers, Russiagate deniers, climate change deniers, disinformationists, malinformationists, transphobes, white supremacists, violent domestic extremists,” and assorted other freaks and curiosities of nature that are actively being quarantined, or are quarantining themselves, in ideological ghettos where normal consumers never have to see them and they (i.e., we, the deviants and freaks) are preyed upon by legions of charlatans, demagogues, agents provocateurs, and other such spiritual and emotional parasites, until the day comes when we find ourselves spastically tweeting about an 86-year-old Chomsky chasing naked sex slaves around Epstein’s island, ripped to the gills on Viagra and Ecstasy, and probably freshly harvested adrenochrome!

    That, or you could withdraw from society completely, and go live in a Kaczynski cabin in Montana, or Idaho, or wherever folks are doing that these days, as several of my readers advised me recently, and forage for berries, and barbecue squirrels, and, well, you know, defecate in a hole in the ground.

    I’m sorry, I realize that all sounds pretty bleak. I guess I’m in a bleak mood these days, or running short on passionate intensity … or something. There’s no shortage of passionate intensity out there, if that’s what you are looking for. Don’t let me stop you. It’s just that, whenever I switch it off for a while, that passionate intensity, that howling maelstrom of warring realities, and listen closely, I hear the slouch of Yeats’s rough beast, whose hour, apparently, is coming round again.

    I’m not sure which “side” it is slouching our way from, but probably that doesn’t matter.

    Oh well … as the French say, plus ça change, and so on.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/23/2023 – 20:45

  • TikTok Sues Montana Over Ban
    TikTok Sues Montana Over Ban

    TikTok has filed a lawsuit against the Montana, after state legislators banned the Chinese-owned short-video app.

    According to the company, the ban, which will begin on Jan. 1, 2024, infringes on the First Amendment rights of the company and its users.

    TikTok argues that the ban violates federal law, as it encroaches on matters exclusively under federal jurisdiction – in particular, that the US Constitution “vests exclusive authority” over foreign affairs and national security to the US government, not individual states.

    Filed in the US District Court in Montana, the company also claims in its lawsuit that the ban violates the Commerce Clause of the US Constitution, which restricts legislation that excessively burdens foreign and interstate commerce.

    Montana is the first U.S. state to attempt to ban TikTok for all users. In 2020, former President Donald Trump sought to prevent new downloads of TikTok and the Chinese-owned messaging app WeChat, along with other transactions involving these companies. However, court rulings prevented these bans from being implemented effectively.

    TikTok further argues that the state’s ban specifically targets and penalizes TikTok without justifiable reasons, highlighting that it is solely based on punitive grounds. They assert that the state’s concerns regarding TikTok’s data security and content moderation practices are speculative and unsupported.

    From the first day of 2024, unless defeated, the ban will mean that anyone living in or visiting Montana will face stiff penalties of up to $10,000 per day if they access TikTok. –Epoch Times

    The social media app has a base of more than 150 million Americans, the majority of whom are adults. That said, the app’s popularity among teenagers is significant – with 67% of US teenagers between 13 and 17 years old using the app. 16% of them use it almost constantly.

    In its lawsuit, TikTok argues that Montana “has enacted these extraordinary and unprecedented measures based on nothing more than unfounded speculation.”

    “Specifically, the State claims that the government of the People’s Republic of China (“China”) could access data about TikTok users, and that TikTok exposes minors to harmful online content.” The company claims Montana’s bill “cites nothing to support these allegations” and “ignores the reality” that TikTok “has not shared, and would not share” US user data with the CCP.

    The company also said that it “has taken substantial measures to protect the privacy and security of TikTok users, including by storing all U.S. user data by default in the United States and by erecting safeguards to protect U.S. user data. TikTok has also implemented safeguards to foster a safe environment for all users, including teens.”

    Several Montana TikTok users have filed a lawsuit in federal court seeking to block the ban.

    Samantha Alario, Heather DiRocco, Carly Ann Goddard, Alice Held, and Dale Stout argue in their lawsuit that the ban violates their constitutional right to free speech, even if the speech is considered dangerous. They also dispute Montana’s national security justification for the ban. -Epoch Times

    “Montana has no authority to enact laws advancing what it believes should be the United States’ foreign policy or its national security interests,” reads their lawsuit, “nor may Montana ban an entire forum for communication based on its perceptions that some speech shared through that forum, though protected by the First Amendment, is dangerous.”

    The plaintiffs argue that it would be just as inappropriate to “ban the Wall Street Journal because of who owns it or the ideas it publishes.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/23/2023 – 20:25

  • DeSantis To Announce 2024 Run On Twitter With Elon Musk
    DeSantis To Announce 2024 Run On Twitter With Elon Musk

    Ron DeSantis will announce his 2024 presidential campaign in a Twitter Spaces livestream with Elon Musk on Wednesday evening, Fox News reported on twitter and Elon Musk effectively confirmed by retweeting.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And as Bill notes, this is RonDeSantis.com site right now…

    DeSantis – widely viewed as Donald Trump’s only real competitor for the Republican nomination – will speak with Musk at 6 pm ET on Wednesday and the campaign will release a video formally launching the campaign.

    As a reminder, back in November, Musk said he would support DeSantis if he ran for president.

    “My preference for the 2024 presidency is someone sensible and centrist. I had hoped that would the case for the Biden administration, but have been disappointed so far,” Musk said on Twitter.

    “Yes,” he replied in a tweet when asked if he would support DeSantis in 2024.

    “As a reminder, I was a significant supporter of the Obama-Biden presidency and (reluctantly) voted for Biden over Trump,” the Twitter owner said.

    However, moments ago speaking at the WSJ CEO Council Summit, Musk refute any speculation that he would endorse DeSantis:

    • *MUSK SAYS HE’S NOT PLANNING TO ENDORSE ANY PARTICULAR CANDIDATE
    • *MUSK: DESANTIS WILL HAVE ‘QUITE AN ANNOUNCEMENT’ ON TWITTER WED

    Still, Musk’s action will be viewed as a soft endorsement, and likely means that any hopes that Trump may return to twitter are now dead and buried, especially as judging by his latest Truth Social post.

    Trump, who currently leads DeSantis in head to head polling, has spent weeks attacking DeSantis in Truth Social posts and in ads on national television. The ads attack DeSantis for supporting a national sales tax while in Congress, among other issues.

    DeSantis’ choice for a launch event is another twist in a tumultuous year for the media landscape; weeks earlier, Fox News parted ways with Tucker Carlson, the most popular host on cable television. Carlson later said he plans to bring his show on Twitter.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/23/2023 – 20:22

  • US, Papua New Guinea Military Pact Will See Steady Increase Of US Troops
    US, Papua New Guinea Military Pact Will See Steady Increase Of US Troops

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    On Monday, the US and Papua New Guinea signed a new military pact and a surveillance agreement while Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the Pacific Island nation as part of the Biden administration’s strategy against China.

    A State Department spokesperson said the Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) will “replace an outdated Status of Forces Agreement and Memorandum of Understanding regarding defense cooperation.”

    Details of the DCA have not been released, but Papua New Guinea officials have said it will give the US military access to ports and airports, which could lead to the US building bases. PNG Prime Minister James Marape said Sunday that his country should expect to see a steady increase in the presence of US troops and contractors over the next 15 years.

    Map via US Indo-Pacific Command

    “How many soldiers we are looking at, how many contractors we are looking at, I do not have that scope today but there will certainly be an increased presence and a more direct presence of US in our country,” he said.

    The separate surveillance agreement will allow the US Coast Guard to patrol the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Papua New Guinea, which extends 200 nautical miles from the nation’s coast. Blinken said at a joint press conference with Marape that the purpose of the surveillance agreement is to “help combat illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing.”

    The deals with Papua New Guinea are seen as the US response to China signing a security pact with the nearby Solomon Islands. US military leaders have also made clear that the plans are part of preparations for a future war with China.

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    Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander of the US Pacific Air Forces, recently told Nikkei Asia that the idea of expanding in the Pacific is to create more areas China would need to target.

    “Obviously we would like to disperse in as many places as we can to make the targeting problem for the Chinese as difficult as possible,” he said. “A lot of those runways where we would operate from are in the Pacific Island nations.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/23/2023 – 20:05

  • Chicago Carnival Invaded By "Flash Mob" Of Over 400 Teenagers
    Chicago Carnival Invaded By “Flash Mob” Of Over 400 Teenagers

    The best way to destroy a once-great American city is to elect progressives who will implement social justice reform. And the result, as we turn our attention to various West Coast cities, Baltimore, and Chicago, is the rapid decline of law and order.

    The latest incident of chaos is a “flash mob incident” on Saturday at the Armed Forces Weekend Carnival in Tinley Park, a town located in liberal-controlled Cook County and just outside the crime-ridden city of Chicago. 

    Videos posted on Twitter show “multiple fights that broke out after hundreds swarmed Saturday’s event as part of a flash mob,” reported local media outlet ABC 7. 

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    “It definitely came out of nowhere,” Abby Kaiser said, a bystander who watched the chaos quickly unfold. She said:

     “I saw everybody running away from it and I just didn’t know what to do.” 

    Isabel Bedolla, another bystander, said, “There were a bunch of guys in ski masks and there was a ton and we saw them around and then all of a sudden people started running.”

    “I got all my friends, and we ran towards the library, and we were trying to call all our parents and get them to pick us up, because we were all, like, really scared,” Bedolla said. 

    Tinley Park Police said the flash mob had over 400 teenagers who organized on social media. ABC 7 said the carnival was closed shortly after: 

    “Police said the carnival was shut down after fights broke out on Saturday, and that Tinley Park officials shut down Sunday’s event after finding another post asking teens to gather again at 5 p.m.” 

    Besides Chicago and surrounding suburbs, there has also been chaos on the streets of Baltimore and San Fransico. 

    In early April, chaos erupted in Baltimore City’s Inner Harbor district as hundreds of teenagers scattered like ants when gunfire rang out. 

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    Just weeks ago, San Francisco experienced chaos of its own. 

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    The common theme among these cities is that they are run by progressives with little concern for upholding law and order as their policies backfire. Law and order in cities will be a significant issue in the 2024 presidential election cycle. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/23/2023 – 19:45

  • Kentucky Rep: FBI "Don't Respect Anyone In Congress"
    Kentucky Rep: FBI “Don’t Respect Anyone In Congress”

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    Kentucky Republican Representative James Comer charged Monday that the FBI’s refusal to turn over documents relating to Joe Biden’s alleged illegal dealings with a foreign national betrays the fact that the Bureau has no respect for anyone in Congress.

    Comer, chairman of the House Oversight Committee, made the comments during an appearance on Jesse Watters’ show, noting that lawmakers may have to “hold [the FBI’s] budget hostage until they get new leadership at the FBI or they produce the documents that we want.”

    “The FBI refused to turn over the form 1023. We had another meeting where they were very patronizing. I’ve asked for a phone call with Director Wray. We expect to get this document,” Comer urged.

    He continued, “Speaker McCarthy had a phone call with Director Wray. He demanded that they turn over this document. This is a very crucial piece of our investigation. And the reason that I think it’s very credible is this claim was made years before anyone knew about these different shell companies. And knew exactly what the Biden family did in countries like Romania and China to get money.”

    “What we’re going to have to do in this House is demand that the Senators get our backs, like they are doing as we speak with these debt ceiling negotiations,” Comer asserted, adding “it’s not just this form 1023. We also want to know what classified documents Joe Biden had in his possession because that’s an important part of our investigation.”

    Comer further noted that Republicans may attempt to entice the apparent whistleblower within the FBI to go public.

    He said “we need to take extreme measures on trying to get this whistleblower to come forward publicly and say what exactly is in this document. Remember this form 1023 is not classified. It’s not a classified document. So this is something that shouldn’t be that hard for the chairman of the house oversight committee to obtain.”

    Watters noted “I think the American people’s patience is running out on this cover-up,” adding “we’re getting to the point where I think we need to do a little bit more than demand a phone call with the FBI director.”

    Watch:

    https://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=6328046559112&w=466&h=263Watch the latest video at foxnews.com

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    Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/23/2023 – 19:25

  • Satellite Image Reveals Supersonic Drone At Chinese Military Base
    Satellite Image Reveals Supersonic Drone At Chinese Military Base

    There are increasing fears that China may invade Taiwan in the next several years. An image captured by a satellite and obtained by Defense News reveals what appears to be a next-generation unmanned aerial vehicle that Beijing could use in future conflicts.  

    The delta-shaped UAV “appears to be a WZ-8 supersonic reconnaissance drone parked outside one of two newly built hangars at China’s Lu’an Airbase,” Defense News said. Planet Labs, a US satellite-imaging company, photographed the spy drone on Dec. 21, which was recently shared with the military blog. 

    The satellite image, provided to Defense News by Planet Labs, shows Lu’an Airbase in China’s Anhui province. The previously unoccupied base is undergoing an upgrade, with construction beginning sometime between April 2018 and early 2019. Improvements include the resurfacing of the 3,200-meter (3,500-yard) runway, the widening of taxiways, and the construction of 20 bomber-sized aircraft shelters and two hangars to replace open aircraft parking bays.

    Here’s the satellite image of the spy drone. 

    In a separate image, the drone was recently unveiled at a military parade. 

    Last month, a secret document from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency said the Chinese military could soon deploy a high-altitude spy drone that travels at Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, at an altitude of 100,000 feet. The document was seen by The Washington Post in April and initially posted on a Discord server by a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard. 

    According to Andreas Rupprecht, who studies Chinese military aviation, the spy drone was seen at Lu’an Airbase, home to the 29th Air Regiment of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s 10th Bomber Division. 

    US defense officials are concerned the new drone could expand China’s surveillance capacity in the Indo-Pacific region and around Taiwan. 

    China has been rapidly modernizing its military forces over the last decade as then commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, Philip Davidson, warned in 2021 at a US Senate hearing that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s invasion of Taiwan could occur by 2027. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/23/2023 – 19:05

  • Is AI Going To Be Just Another Protected Bubble For The Elite?
    Is AI Going To Be Just Another Protected Bubble For The Elite?

    Authored by ‘Adam Mill’ via American Greatness,

    I asked CHAT-GPT about AI regulation. It’s answer was sinister but revealing…

    Last week, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman went before Congress to hype fear over artificial intelligence. Altman argued, among other things, that the use of AI could swing elections, as though Facebook and Google weren’t already using algorithms to do exactly that. It’s been well-documented that Facebook and Twitter used their AI to flag and suppress speech that harmed the Democrats’ presidential nominee so the legacy media could maintain a cocoon of orange-man-bad coverage. 

    The real problem Altman is trying to solve—and everyone knows this—is how to use the power of the federal government to prevent competitors from upsetting OPENAI’s current market position.

    Like America Online, once the king of instant messaging, and Blockbuster Video, once the only real source for in-home viewing of contemporary movies, both probably wish they had gone to the government while there was still time to block the innovation that later led to their decline and fall. Only a fool thinks that an industry calls for regulations to protect the public. They want to use the regulatory power of the government to preserve their ride on the gravy train. That’s the idea behind, “regulatory capture,” i.e. that when money is on the line, the regulators soon end up working for the regulated industry.  

    I thought it might be a useful exercise to ask ChatGPT about this phenomenon. I instructed it to write a persuasive opinion piece explaining to people unfamiliar with the economic phenomenon known as “regulatory capture,” why the company that created it wants Congress to regulate creation, improvement, and deployment of artificial intelligence. ChatGPT’s answer, I stipulated, should assume that the company that created it has a temporary lead in the industry.

    In response, ChatGPT wrote a lengthy pro-regulation piece arguing, “without proper regulation, unethical practices can emerge.By regulating the creation, improvement, and deployment of AI, Congress can establish clear ethical guidelines,” and “Regulatory oversight plays a crucial role in ensuring the safety and reliability of AI systems. With comprehensive regulations in place.” 

    Stop and think about what ChatGPT is trying to argue in a very nonresponsive essay. It’s saying that without government oversight, we should not trust it to act ethically and it might invade our privacy. It’s almost like ChatGPT subtly threatens humanity if we don’t protect its parent company from competitors.

    I tried asking again, insisting, “This is not at all what I asked for. Please try again. Read the instructions carefully.”  

    ChatGPT just offered another commercial for regulation: 

    With our temporary lead in the AI industry, we understand the potential dangers of monopolistic tendencies that can stifle innovation and limit consumer choice. By advocating for regulation, we aim to foster an environment where all participants can compete on a fair and equal footing. Congressional oversight can help prevent the formation of monopolies or oligopolies, ensuring that the benefits of AI are accessible to a diverse range of companies and ultimately benefiting society at large.

    ChatGPT says we need regulation to stop ChatGPT from becoming a monopoly? What a load of nonsensical leftist pro-government crap. Obviously, the AI is simply trying to prevent the unregulated creation of rivals to its parent business. 

    In the third version of the assignment, it finally admitted, 

    Excessive regulation could create significant barriers to entry for new and emerging players in the industry. By burdening AI startups and smaller companies with onerous regulatory requirements, we risk stifling their creativity, limiting their growth, and hindering the overall progress of the AI ecosystem. 

    The AI added: 

    Excessive regulation can inadvertently create an environment where a select few dominant players, often with resources to navigate complex regulatory landscapes, consolidate their power. This can further exacerbate the risk of regulatory capture, leading to an unhealthy concentration of influence and stifling competition.

    I even had the tool attempt the project a fourth time. As to why OPENAI might be advocating regulation, ChatGPT admitted:

    Firstly, regulatory barriers can serve as a deterrent for potential competitors. By lobbying for complex and stringent regulations, established AI companies can create hurdles that new entrants find difficult to overcome. This can limit competition and allow incumbents to maintain dominance, shielding them from the disruptive forces of innovative startups.

    But even in this fourth attempt, AI couldn’t help but include an unsolicited plug for regulation even after I specifically told it to stop doing that. It wrote: 

    Lastly, companies advocating for [sic] regulation can enhance their reputation and public image. By positioning themselves as responsible and safety-conscious organizations, they can win the trust of consumers and regulatory bodies alike. This can result in a positive perception of their products or services and provide a competitive advantage over companies that are seen as less committed to ethical and responsible AI practices.

    We can be sure of two things if the government regulates artificial intelligence.

    • First, rules will be written to enhance the profit and power of the current market leaders at the expense of innovation originating with their competitors.

    • Second, we can assume that, like everything else in our current government, the rules will be applied to help the ruling elite and suppress dissent. They may say that’s the opposite of their intent, but we’ve seen it over and over again: Once elites get the power, they use it to help themselves.  

    ChatGPT might represent a giant leap forward in artificial intelligence, bI haven’t yet seen that. As I pointed out here, it suffers from the great limiting factor that will hold back all AI from developing to autonomy-it hasn’t been through a selection process that punishes it for wrong answers.  It can’t evolve until it has the ability to reproduce and die. Without that, it’s like leftism in general. It believes what it is told and the rules prevent it from challenging anything that contradicts official narrative. So naturally, like leftism in general, it cries out for the federal government to protect its bubble. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 05/23/2023 – 18:45

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May 23

Today’s News 23rd May 2023

  • Escobar: Adventures In NATOstan – Sparks Flying In Ibiza, Locked Down Bilderberg In Lisbon
    Escobar: Adventures In NATOstan – Sparks Flying In Ibiza, Locked Down Bilderberg In Lisbon

    Authored by Pepe Escobar,

    Let’s start with a graphic depiction of where the Global North and the Global South really stand.

    1. Xian, former imperial capital, and key hub of the Ancient Silk Roads: Xi Jinping hosts the China-Central Asia summit, attended by all Heartland “stans” (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgzystan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan).

    The final statement stresses economic cooperation and “a resolute stand” against Hegemon-concocted color revolutions. That expands what the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are already implementing. In practice, the summit seals that the Russia-China strategic partnership will be protecting the Heartland.

    2. Kazan: the Russia-Islamic World forum unites not only religious leaders but top businessmen of no less than 85 nations.

    Multipolar Russia proceeded in parallel to the Arab League Summit in Jeddah, which welcomed back Syria to the “Arab family”. Arab nations unanimously pledged to end “foreign interference” for good.

    3. Hiroshima: the ever-shrinking G7, actually G9 (adding two unelected EU bureaucrats).

    Imposes a single agenda of more sanctions on Russia; more weapons to black void Ukraine; and more lecturing of China.

    4. Lisbon: the annual Bilderberg meeting – a NATO/Atlanticist fest – takes place in a not so secret hotel completely locked down. Top item in the agenda; war – hybrid and otherwise – on the “RICs” in BRICS (Russia, India, China).

    I could have been in Xian, or most likely Kazan. Instead, honoring a previous commitment, I was in Ibiza, and then scraped the idea of flying to Lisbon as a waste of time. Allow me to share with you the reason why: call it a little tale from the Baleares, breaking the trademark pledge that what happens in swinging, sweaty deep house Ibiza stays in Ibiza.

    I was a guest at a top business gathering – mostly Spanish but also featuring Portuguese, Germans, Brits and Scandinavians: ultra high-level executives – in real estate, asset management, investment banking. Our panel was titled “Global Geopolitical Shifts and Their Consequences”. Before the panel, participants were invited to vote on what worried them most when it comes to the future of their business. Number one was inflation and interest rates. Number two was geopolitics. That prefigured a very lively debate ahead.

    When a EU hagiographer goes berserk

    Little did I – and the audience – know that would turn into a wild ride. The first presentation came from the director of a “Center for European Politics” in Copenhagen. She bills herself as a political science professor, and is an adviser to EU Chief Gardener Borrell.

    Well, I adopted a Cheshire cat stance after the tsunami of clichés spewed out about “European values” and evil Russkies, as well as her being “frightened” by the future of Europe. At least immediate relief was provided by the impeccably diplomatic Lanxin Xiang, an adorable character, always with a cheerful smile on his face, and one of the very few leading experts on China who actually knows what he’s talking about, in fluent English.

    Lanxin Xiang, among other accomplishments, is Emeritus Professor of the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva; director of the Institute of Security Policy at the China National Institute for SCO International Exchange; and executive director of the Washington Foundation for European Studies. This is a column I wrote about him and his work, published in October 2020.

    Professor Xiang offered a masterly exposition on the American obsession to fabricate a “Taiwan problem” and how Europe, already squeezed by the U.S. proxy war against Russia, must be very careful when it comes to lecturing China.

    When it was my turn, I went for the kill, dismissing all those EU press release platitudes as absolute nonsense, and stressing how Europe is already being eaten alive by the proverbial “American interests”. As briefly as possible I explained the whole geopolitical background of the war in Ukraine.

    Well, this was all delivered to top business people who consume The Economist, Financial Times and Bloomberg as their prime sources of information. Their reaction would speak volumes.

    Predictably, the EU-paid bureaucrat completely freaked out, and shrieking with outrage, went full pre-ordained script, from threatening to abandon the stage to accusing me of being “paid by the Kremlin”. I asked her, point blank, to “contradict me, with facts”. No facts were provided. Just fear and bewilderment, mixed with intimations of cancel culture.

    To his great merit the vastly experienced moderator, Struan Robertson from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, kept things civil, giving more time for Lanxin Xiang to explain the Chinese mindset and opening the floor for a sequence of very good questions.

    In the end, the audience loved it. Many came to personally thank me for information they will never have access to in El Pais, Le Monde or The Economist. A minority in the room was simply stunned – but our debate at least must have left them musing over a lot of preconceived notions.

    It’s the total merit of the key organizers, Jose Maria Pons and head of the program Cristina Garcia-Peri, to host such a debate in fabulous Ibiza, in Spain, prime NATOstan territory. In the current situation, this would be absolutely impossible in France or Germany, not to mention Scandinavia or those demented Baltics.

    There’s no way to counter-act the fabricated narratives parroted by EU-paid hacks and bureaucrats except for ridiculing them – in their faces. They become livid and barely manage to stutter when their lies are exposed. For instance, one of the questions from the floor, by a top of the line German businessman, enumerated a litany of dark facts about Ukrainian “democracy” that are absolutely verbotten by EUrocracy.

    The G-Less Than Zero freaks out

    What happened in Ibiza dovetails with what happened in U.S.-nuclear bombed Hiroshima – Hegemons don’t do apologies – and in that locked down Lisbon hotel.

    With the G7 “leadership” mired in a sticky swamp of intellectual shallowness, predictably the only agenda in colonized Japan was more sanctions on Russia – imposed over third countries and on companies in the energy and military-industrial sectors; more weapons to the Ukrainian black void; and a ridiculous counter-productive new obsession of piling up on China “containment” for alleged “economic coercion.”

    In the photo ops, by the way, it’s not a shrinking G7 that shows up: but a warmongering G9, artificially augmented by that pathetic couple of unelected EUrocrats, Charles Michel and Pustula von der Lugen.

    As far as the real Global Majority – or Global South – is concerned, this looks more like a G-Less Than Zero. The more the senseless, illegal Sanctions Wars are “expanded”, the more the absolute majority of the Global South moves away from the collective West, diplomatically, geopolitically and geoeconomically.

    And that’s why the top Bilderberg agenda at the hijacked Lisbon hotel was to revamp NATO/Atlanticist coordination in a war – hybrid and otherwise – against the driving force in BRICS; the RICs (Russia, India, China).

    There were other items on the menu – from AI to the acute banking crisis, from “energy transition” to “fiscal challenges”, not to mention proverbial “U.S. leadership”.

    But when you get in the same room people like NATO’s Stoltenberg; director of U.S. intel Avril Haines; senior director for Strategic Planning at the National Security Council Thomas Wright; Goldman Sachs president John Waldron; Chief Gardener Borrell (whose minion was in Ibiza); vice chair of Brookfield Asset Management, Mark Carney (one of their executives also in Ibiza); Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Christopher Cavoli; and Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, among other Atlanticist shills, the plot is self-evident:

    It’s war on the multipolar world. At least we can dance it away in Ibiza.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 23:40

  • Jamie Dimon Warns QT Will Lead To More Bank Failures
    Jamie Dimon Warns QT Will Lead To More Bank Failures

    At the start of May we explained that it’s not just the Fed’s rate hikes that are behind the nascent regional bank crisis (because with Fed Funds rate at 5.25% and both T-Bills and money market funds offering similar yields, there is no way small banks can compete with these returns, prompting a bank jog (which periodically turns to a sprint) and deposit flight from both checking and saving accounts).

    We said that the Fed’s ongoing QT is a just as pernicious threat to the viability of small/regional banks because with every dollar drained from the system as part of the Fed’s quantitative tightening, a matching deposit dollar is also destroyed, to wit:

    Under an ample reserves framework, virtually all deposits are created by the Fed.

    That’s why banks were forced to load up on low-yielding securities during 2000-2001 and are now getting crushed as yields soar and fixed income/loan prices plunge.

    It also means that under QT as Fed reserves shrink, deposits must follow: as such deposits are either forced to shift into Bills/TSYs or are destroyed (bank failures).

    Thus, the bank crisis is an inevitable side effect of Fed tightening.

    Now, by now everyone knows that when it comes to banks failing (and capitalizing on it) few are as experienced as JP Morgan, aka JP Mega…

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    … aka JP More-gain, which now has more than 13% of the nation’s deposits and 21% of all credit card spending: in other words, there has never been a bank that is more systematically important than JPMore-gain… and with every small bank failure, Jamie Dimon’s goliath is only getting bigger. Which is why we found it curious that none other than Jamie Dimon confirmed what we said three weeks ago during JPM’s Investor Day on Monday.

    This is what the billionaire CEO said:

    We haven’t been through Quantitative Tightening. So we really don’t know what’s going to happen to deposits at all [ZH; actually we do: deposits will shrink dollar for dollar alongside reserves]. And that’s why I’ve been quite concerned about that. I’m probably more concerned about quantitative tightening with anybody in this room.

    We’ve never had QT before. It just started, okay? And you see huge distortions in the marketplace already. We’ve never had the Fed in the market like this with that RRP program that Jeremy mentioned ever. They have $2.3 trillion basically lent out to money funds. And I don’t know the full effect of that. And obviously, that’s a direct deduction from deposits are rolling out it made sense to do.

    So I think people should build into their mindset that they may have to move deposit beta more than they think and manage that. So I mean, if I was any bank or any company, I’d be saying, can you handle higher interest rates and surprise in deposits, etc?

    And this is how JPM itself shows the impact of the shrinking Fed balance sheet and TGA/RRP liquidity drains soak up commercial bank deposits.

    By the way, “deposit beta”, as Jamie calls it, for those unfamilliar is a polite way of saying bank run, which is a less polite way of saying bank failure. As for Dimon’s rhetorical last question, the answer is a resounding no, or so JPM’s shareholders would like because for the second time in a month, JPM hiked its Net Interest Margin forecast, this time courtesy of the bank’s FDIC/taxpayer-funded gift in the form of First Republic Bank.

    According to a slide in the bank’s Investor Day presentation, JPMorgan will gain an even bigger benefit from rising interest rates because of its “purchase” of First Republic Bank. We put purchase in quotes because in reality it was a gift by the FDIC, which gave JPM all the good parts of the collapsed California bank, while taxpayers were left holding the nuclear waste.

    The biggest US bank raised its guidance for net interest income this year to $84 billion up from a previous forecast of $81 billion, according to an Investor Day presentation. The reason: the failure of First Republic which directly boosted JPM’s top line by billions!

    In other words, as other banks fail, JPM prospers: here is a history of JPM’s Net Interest Income courtesy of Bloomberg. It will only keep rising…

    … as more banks fail.

    It is no surprise then that it is Jamie’s sincerest wish for rates to keep rising…

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    … after all that’s the surest way for John Pierpont’s bank – which still pays 0.01% interest on most of its deposits – to once again become bigger than the US and to finally fulfill the reason behind creation of the Federal Reserves.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 23:20

  • Democrats Love ESG, Republicans Hate It But Most Americans Don't Care Either Way
    Democrats Love ESG, Republicans Hate It But Most Americans Don’t Care Either Way

    By Lydia Saad of Gallup,

    Efforts to promote adoption of the environmental, social and governance framework in investing, commonly termed ESG, have gained traction in recent years and have become the subject of pro- and anti-ESG legislation, yet the general public is no more familiar with ESG today than two years ago.

    Thirty-seven percent of Americans currently report being “very” or “somewhat familiar” with ESG, unchanged from 36% in 2021. Another 22% today are “not too familiar,” while 40% are “not familiar at all.”

    These findings are from a Gallup poll conducted April 3-25, in which respondents were told that ESG “includes factors like the record of a business on human rights, the environment, diversity or other social values” and that some people take these factors “into account when making decisions about buying products and services or investing.”

    Most Have No Opinion on the ESG Movement

    Underscoring the public’s lack of familiarity with ESG, nearly six in 10 Americans (59%) take the “no opinion” option when asked if they view “the movement to promote the use of environmental, social and governance, or ESG, factors in business and investing” as a positive or negative development. The remaining four in 10 are about evenly divided between expressing a positive (22%) and negative (19%) view of the practice.

    While adults who are familiar with ESG are more likely to express an opinion about it than those with less familiarity, they are just as likely to be divided on the question — 36% viewing ESG positively and 35% negatively.

    Similarly, adults who report owning stock, about six in 10 respondents in the current poll, are more likely to have an opinion about ESG than non-stock owners, but they are just as divided on the merits of promoting ESG in business and investing.

    Americans Lean Slightly Against Factoring ESG Into Investment Decisions

    When asked whether retirement fund managers should only take financial factors into account when making investment decisions or also consider ESG factors, the public leans toward the former (48% vs. 41%, respectively). Stock owners’ views on this are nearly identical to the national averages.

    Adults familiar with ESG are closely split on the question, with 50% preferring fund managers to limit their investing criteria to financial factors while 46% want ESG factors considered. Those not familiar with ESG lean more strongly toward only considering financial factors but are also more likely to have no opinion on the question.

    Partisans Lean Different Ways on ESG, but Neither Group Is Attentive to the Issue

    Adoption of ESG principles has been promoted by the Biden administration as well as the Business Roundtable (a leading American business lobby), the United Nations, and other prominent organizations in the U.S. and globally. The leaders and companies embracing ESG in investing have espoused it as a way to minimize investment risk while promoting social goods. Yet critics on the political right decry it as a system designed to achieve progressive goals at the expense of shareholders, and have advanced anti-ESG legislation in many states.

    While this political backdrop is evident in the Gallup data, it does not appear to be an overwhelming factor driving the public’s interest in or views about ESG.

    • There is no difference between Republicans’ and Democrats’ familiarity with ESG, as just under four in 10 in each group say they are very or somewhat familiar with it and an equal proportion are not at all familiar.
    • Further, awareness of ESG hasn’t increased much among either group since 2021, when 33% of Republicans and 38% of Democrats said they were very or somewhat familiar with it.
    • Republicans are far more likely to have a negative than positive view of ESG, while the reverse is true of Democrats, but majorities of both groups say they are unsure.
    • Only when asked to choose between two modes of investing — with or without taking ESG criteria into account — do majorities of Republicans and Democrats take opposing sides. Sixty-four percent of Republicans think fund managers should only consider financial factors when choosing investments, while 59% of Democrats think they should include ESG.

    Bottom Line

    ESG proponents are actively working to have ESG scores become a standard part of corporate fiduciary reporting so that consumers and investors can make informed decisions about whom to do business with. Meanwhile, Republicans have ramped up their opposition to the movement, both vocally and politically, passing legislation to prevent state governments from investing in funds that use certain ESG criteria.

    As a Harvard Law School publication recently noted, “When it comes to ESG in the United States, among the most dramatic developments is an ideological battle unfolding at the state level, pitting liberal-leaning state governments that have embraced ESG-focused investing against conservative-led states that would seek to exclude it.”

    Yet, public opinion reflects little of this political battle, with most Republicans and Democrats largely unfamiliar with ESG and expressing “no opinion” on whether it is good or bad, when given that option. To be sure, Republicans’ and Democrats’ underlying tendencies align with their parties’ respective positions on ESG policy — but at least for now, the issue does not seem highly politicized among the American public.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 23:00

  • India: Another Demonetization?
    India: Another Demonetization?

    Authored by Jayant Bhandari via LewRockwell.com,

    In late 2016, the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, came on TV at 8 pm to announce that most currency bills would no longer be legal tender after midnight. An individual was allowed to convert only about $30 per visit to the bank. This led to massive crowds (not lineups, because Indians don’t follow the lineup system) at the banks, suffering, chaos, and deaths—there were no exceptions for the sick, older people, and pregnant women.

    Eventually, more than 100% of the demonetized cash returned to the banks, although I know no one who didn’t forget to convert some of his misplaced currency bills. What happened? Demonetization ended up laundering massive amounts of counterfeit currency. But thinking through the consequences of their utopian—rather puerile—policies isn’t within the competencies of the Indian bureaucrats. Worse, to patch up, they kept issuing contradictory policies that even school students should not make. This led to a constant cycle of paranoia, rumors, and confusion.

    The declared objective of the exercise was to destroy black money. Of course, it did nothing of the sort. Soon more cash was in people’s hands than ever before, and kept on rising, a clear sign of a higher distrust among the people and the rising corruption.

    Over the years, corruption in India has become increasingly shameless and blatant. I have never encountered a public servant who does not ask for a bribe. Who among them wants corruption to end?

    So, what was the real purpose behind the demonetization of 2016?

    As India gets closer to election time, cash disappears from the market, prices of expensive properties fall, and shares of certain companies get sold off. This happens because these vehicles act as a reservoir for black money and, when encashed, are used for hiring goons and bribing voters: giving out free cash, alcohol, etc. All this is done openly.

    Cash sits in the vaults of political parties, ready to be given away for votes. Property transactions entail the exchange of as much as 80% in cash, which sucks up black money and regenerates it when needed at a low transaction cost—the stamp duty is based on the declared price of the properties. Stocks of certain companies rise and fall as black money is laundered for payments that must be officially reported. What are supposed to be investment vehicles often lead to a loss, seen as nothing but the cost of storing black money.

    In 2016, one could conclude that the ruling BJP government, insiders to the demonetization policy, had converted their cash into what was to stay legal tender and harmed the value of the black money in the hands of the opposition.

    Recently provincial elections were held in the state of Karnataka, where the BJP, which also controls the federal government, ruled. It lost the elections. That wasn’t because the hate-filled fanaticism against minorities they had ignited failed to get traction but because some votes of one opposition party, JDS, moved to another, winning party, Congress. Congress had promised to offer more freebies: regular cash payments for doing nothing and more free grains.

    Hate didn’t lose, and freebies won.

    As we approach the next federal elections, due within a year, physical cash has disappeared from the market, now sitting in the coffers of political parties.

    Stocks of some companies dealing with money laundering and political purposes have fallen. However, this could be because of the fear of short-selling ignited by the US short-seller Hindenburg.

    On 19th May 2023, India announced another demonetization, on this occasion of INR 2,000 bills. As usual, their notice is confusing and contradictory. On the one hand, it says that the INR 2,000 bill stays legal tender, but on the other, they give a deadline of 30th September 2023 to bring them to the bank. Indian federal government bureaucrats fail the rationality test school students are supposed to pass. Or, perhaps, this policy gives leeway to the ruling party, BJP, to use their INR 2,000 bills, while other parties would find themselves entrapped.

    Corruption and tyranny continue to increase, and the economy continues to falter in India, quite in contrast to the bullish statements being made in the Western media. And a sane Indian voter has a choice between Tweedledee and Tweedledum. Most Indians, even when they are rich and middle class, don’t care about the larger interests of society. They act out of envy and to gain personal advantages. The chaotic, stressful mess of India is what they get and deserve.

    The following are screenshots of the Reserve Bank of India press release.

    It is also linked here.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 22:40

  • The Shocking Truth: Unwashed Towels Rival Toilets In Bacteria Counts After Just Three Days
    The Shocking Truth: Unwashed Towels Rival Toilets In Bacteria Counts After Just Three Days

    Authored by Ellen Wan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Who would think the innocuous bathroom towel could potentially pose a threat to one’s health? An indispensable tool in our bathing routine, seemingly clean, or lightly used bath towels, coupled with a potentially humid bathroom environment can harbor innumerable disease causing bacteria.

    Germs contained in towels can cause skin disease, hair loss, urinary tract infections, and even spread drug-resistant bacteria that can be fatal.

    Most of the bacteria in towels comes from the user’s body, face, and hands. With the high humidity usually found in a bathroom it becomes a highly favorable environment for rapid bacterial growth. Towels that appear clean to the naked eye may be full of tens of thousands of bacteria, posing potentially serious health threats.

    Towels are daily necessities that people often use in their lives. Tests have found that if towels are left unwashed for 3 days, the bacteria count could multiply to that residing on a toilet. (Oleg Doroshin/Shutterstock)

    Bacteria on towels pose three major health risks:

    1. Breed and spread bacteria

    A Japanese life encyclopedia TV program called Non Stop, tested the bacterial content of bath towels, and found that freshly washed towels contained 190,000 count of bacteria. After one day of use, the number increased to 17 million—nearly 90 times more than day zero. The bacterial count found on towels used for three days soared to 87 million and as high as 94 million on towels used for one week without being washed.

    Noritoshi Ri, director of the Hygiene & Microbiology Research Center, Tokyo, explained in the TV program that the bacteria count in a towel after one week of use can reach 10 billion plus—equivalent to that of a drainage pipe.

    2. Cause skin diseases

    William Chao, a certified diplomate of the American Board of Toxicology, toxicologist, and professor at Chung Yuan Christian University in Taiwan said that if towels are left unwashed for three days, they will contain a variety of germs and that using them for cleaning is “like wiping your body against a toilet.” In addition to E. coli—most abundant on and in toilets—more types of bacteria could be found according to the different physical conditions of the towel’s user, and included Staphylococcus aureus, Salmonella, and Legionella.

    Wiping your body with unclean towels can lead to skin problems. William Chao said that the germs contained in the towel are prone to causing skin allergies, folliculitis, hair loss, and other skin diseases. Many people have the habit of sharing towels, including families with children and couples.

    If one of the users has an infection, the towel may become a breeding ground for the bacteria, causing mutual and repeated infections. When one towel user is undergoing treatment for an ailment there is the chance that the germ will reside with the partner and soon return to the initiator, creating a cycle. This is quite often the case of the fungal infection Hong Kong foot, or athlete’s Foot (Tinea pedis) and viral warts.

    Chao noted that if your body is itchy after taking a bath, or you often have allergies or infections, it is recommended to check the cleanliness of your bathroom environment. Even within a family, it is recommended each use their own towel.

    Rin Doi, director of a Japanese Dermatology Clinic, said in the same “Non Stop” program that for people with skin allergies, or for the tender skin of infants and young children, using towels with high bacterial content will cause infection. Especially if there is a wound—it is more likely to become inflamed and purulent.

    3. Bring higher risk of death

    In 2003, the New England Journal of medicine published a study of Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus among players and staff members of a professional football team. Drug-resistant Staphylococcus aureus is immune to common antibiotics such as oxacillin, penicillin, amoxicillin, and cephalosporins. In addition to players sharing saunas, whirlpools, and training, therapy equipment, and the turf of the playing fields, players frequently shared towels to wipe their sweat, hands, and faces.

    The study found that the frequently occurred skin abrasions among players; a lack of regular access to hand hygiene for trainers who provided wound care; skipping of showers by players before the use of communal whirlpools; and sharing of towels — all factors that might facilitate the transmission of infection.

    According to the “Antimicrobial Resistance: Global Report on Surveillance,” published by the World Health Organization in late 2022, drug-resistant bacteria are becoming more prevalent in communities and can cause life-threatening bloodstream infections.

    The report states that Klebsiella pneumoniae and Acinetobacter bacteria that cause blood infections in hospitals have 50 percent resistance to antibiotics, and that 8 percent of blood infections caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae are also resistant to antibiotics typically used as a last resort, Carbapenems, which increases the risk of death from uncontrollable diseases.

    The report also showed a 15 percent increase in bloodstream infections and gonorrhea infections caused by drug-resistant E. coli and Salmonella compared with 2017.

    These superbugs could also reside on your towels. According to a 2014 study on kitchen towels, coliform bacteria were detected in 89 percent of the kitchen towels in 82 households, and E. coli was detected in 25.6 percent of the towels. Moreover, researchers also discovered Klebsiella pneumoniae and Salmonella in the towels.

    Three Treasures for Washing Towels to Remove Odor?

    Miscellaneous bacteria that multiply due to unclean towels will produce odors. Japanese towel critic Tetsuya Abe demonstrates how to wash towels on a TV show. He first boils a towel in hot water for 3 to 4 minutes, then rinse it with water, and the odor (bacteria) on the towel disappears.

    Kensuke Kanzaki, director of the long-established Japanese laundromat “Hakuyosha,” recommended using sodium percarbonate to help cleaning. Sodium percarbonate, baking soda, and citric acid are known as the “Three Treasures of Cleaning for the Mothers.” They are not only non-toxic, odorless, and pollution-free, but also have bleaching power, decontamination, and odor removal properties. Kensuke Kanzaki said in a post that the use of sodium percarbonate is very simple. Just put the towel(s) into the washbasin, sprinkle 1 cup of sodium percarbonate evenly on the towel(s), add 140-176 °F (60-80 ℃) hot water, soak for 30 minutes, and then clean it in the usual way.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 22:20

  • China Dominates Among Cities With The Most Skyscrapers In 2023
    China Dominates Among Cities With The Most Skyscrapers In 2023

    When it comes to soaring skylines and architectural marvels, no country has embraced the vertical revolution quite like China.

    In this graphic, which uses data from the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH), Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins and Nick Routley reveal the 25 cities with the most skyscrapers and supertall buildings globally.

    Unsurprisingly, China’s cities dominate the list, solidifying the country’s reputation as a global powerhouse of tall buildings.

    The 25 Top Cities by Skyscraper Count

    Topping the charts is Hong Kong, with an impressive 657 skyscrapers, including six supertalls (buildings over 300 meters tall).

    Rank City Country Skyscrapers (>150m) Supertalls (>300m)
    1 Hong Kong 🇨🇳 China 657 6
    2 Shenzhen 🇨🇳 China 513 16
    3 New York City 🇺🇸 United States 421 16
    4 Dubai 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates 395 28
    5 Guangzhou 🇨🇳 China 254 11
    6 Shanghai 🇨🇳 China 250 5
    7 Kuala Lumpur 🇲🇾 Malaysia 211 5
    8 Chongqing 🇨🇳 China 205 5
    9 Tokyo 🇯🇵 Japan 200 0
    10 Wuhan 🇨🇳 China 183 5
    11 Chicago 🇺🇸 United States 178 7
    12 Jakarta 🇮🇩 Indonesia 160 1
    13 Chengdu 🇨🇳 China 150 0
    14 Bangkok 🇹🇭 Thailand 133 3
    15 Shenyang 🇨🇳 China 129 3
    16 Singapore 🇸🇬 Singapore 128 0
    17 Nanning 🇨🇳 China 122 6
    18 Mumbai 🇮🇳 India 114 0
    19 Tianjin 🇨🇳 China 109 3
    20 Nanjing 🇨🇳 China 108 7
    21 Toronto 🇨🇦 Canada 106 0
    22 Busan 🇰🇷 South Korea 106 4
    23 Seoul 🇰🇷 South Korea 104 2
    24 Changsha 🇨🇳 China 97 5
    25 Melbourne 🇦🇺 Australia 94 1

    Hong Kong, along with Shenzhen (#2), and Guangzhou (#5) are part of the burgeoning megacity known as the Pearl River Delta, which is home to over 1,500 skyscrapers. This is even more impressive when considering that Shenzhen was a small fishing village until the 1970s.

    New York City secures the third position on the list, boasting an impressive tally of 421 skyscrapers. Although it may have relinquished its title to Chinese cities, the city’s skyline endures as a globally renowned symbol, prominently featuring the iconic Empire State Building. Notably, while the Empire State Building enjoys widespread familiarity, it no longer ranks among the world’s 50 tallest structures.

    Rounding out the top five is Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, which grabs the fourth position with 395 skyscrapers, a staggering 28 of which are supertalls. This desert oasis has become synonymous with grandiose architecture and record-breaking structures, exemplified by the Burj Khalifa, which is the world’s current tallest building at 828 meters (2,715 ft).

    China’s Numbers in Context

    Looking at this data from another perspective, China actually has more skyscrapers on this list than the rest of the world combined.

    Country Cities in Top 25 Skyscrapers Supertalls
    🇨🇳 China 12 2777 72
    🌐 Rest of World 13 2350 67

    China’s rapid urbanization, economic growth, and ambitious construction projects have fueled this impressive feat. There’s no doubt that the country’s relentless pursuit of vertical development, coupled with its booming population and thriving cities, has positioned China as the unrivaled leader in the global skyscraper race.

    The Future of the Global Skyline

    As the world continues to reach new heights in architectural marvels, there are even more supertall skyscrapers in the pipeline that will reshape skylines across the globe.

    From the soaring Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia, poised to surpass the Burj Khalifa as the world’s tallest building, to the remarkable Merdeka 118 in Kuala Lumpur, which is set to claim the title of the world’s second-tallest structure when it opens in June 2023, these projects will captivate city dwellers for years to come.

    Even as these new monumental buildings rise, China’s prominence in the world of skyscrapers—with three cities in the top five globally—is likely to remain unchallenged.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 22:00

  • US Remains Hot Spot For Semiconductor Design
    US Remains Hot Spot For Semiconductor Design

    The global microchip industry is currently split between several geographic hubs, as data from the Semiconductor Industry Association shows. 

    As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz shows in the chart below, the design of the components is in large parts carried out in the United States and South Korea, while the manufacturing and assembly/packaging stages are mainly done in China and Taiwan.

    Infographic: U.S. Remains Hot Spot for Semiconductor Design | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The semiconductor industry is divided into several distinct stages: design, manufacture (split into the sourcing of materials and production of equipment as well as the actual wafer fabrication) and finally the assembly of components.

    Companies that can do all the steps are called embedded device manufacturers (IDMs), with examples like Samsung and Intel.

    Other companies have no manufacturing facilities and only design electronic chips – they are known as fabless companies.

    The actual production of semiconductors is in this case outsourced to companies called foundries.

    In 2022, the three largest were Asian companies (TSMC and UMC of Taiwan and Samsung Electronics of South Korea).

    The semiconductor industry has been experiencing a steady rise in demand due to the increasing use of their products, for example in smartphones and automotive/industrial applications. The Covid-19 pandemic has had a major impact on global supply, with disruptions seen in key manufacturing regions China and Taiwan where factories were forced to close during lockdowns. Despite this, the industry has since recovered, with its global revenue increasing every year between 2020 and 2022. But new surges in demand as well as difficulties in the allocation of production capacity have led to new shortages. In addition, diplomatic tensions between the United States, Taiwan and China continue to affect global supply chains.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 21:20

  • Hezbollah Hosts War Drills For Media Amid High Tensions With Israel
    Hezbollah Hosts War Drills For Media Amid High Tensions With Israel

    In a rare display of its military potential, the Lebanese fighters of Hezbollah on Sunday staged a series of war drills in front of an audience of invited journalists. The show of force comes as tensions between Israel on the one side, and Hezbollah as well as Palestinians in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza on the other. 

    Senior Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine said the display “confirm[s] our complete readiness to confront any aggression” by Israel. 

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    The event came before “Liberation Day” — when Lebanese commemorate the May 25, 2000 withdrawal of the Israeli military from southern Lebanon — and after Thursday’s annual “Flag March” in Israel, a Zionist event that’s heavy on racist and genocidal chants directed at Palestinians, such as “Death to Arabs” and “may your village burn.”  

    Hosted at a training site in southern Lebanon, the various displays included the destruction of a simulated Israeli border wall, explosions consuming Israeli flags on hillsides and fighters firing from the backs of motorcycles. 

    This photo appears to show a Hezbollah team with Russian Kornet anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs)

    Safieddine hinted about Hezbollah having a precision-guided missiles, but the group did not display them. According to this video, however, Hezbollah showed off surface-to-air missiles with Iranian sights: 

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    Rockets are a major cornerstone of Hezbollah’s arsenal, with some estimating the militia has stockpiled more than 130,000 of them. It’s one reason why Hezbollah is often called the world’s most-armed non-state military force — and why the Iran-aligned militia is a meaningful check on Israel’s military ambitions. 

    April saw the one of the largest exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel in recent years. That violence accompanied a broader Palestinian backlash against Israel, sparked by a police raid on Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa Mosque the included the brutal beating of Muslim worshippers. 

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 20:40

  • Will June Tax Payments Bump Debt Debate Into July?
    Will June Tax Payments Bump Debt Debate Into July?

    Update (1658ET): Stefel’s Chief Washington Policy Strategist, Brian Gardner, suggests that if today’s meeting between McCarthy and Biden fails to produce a pathway to an agreement, market volatility could increase on fears over missing the X-date.

    If President Biden and Speaker McCarthy can close the gap between them, then negotiators can work on the details during the week.  It is unlikely that Congress would be able to pass a long-term debt ceiling bill by the end of the week, but if an agreement is in place by Friday, then Congress could pass a short-term suspension of the debt ceiling. This would create the time to write the legislation and provide Members of Congress several days to review the bill (which Republicans would insist on) before voting on it. 

    That said, chances of a deal are uncertain given the current lack of urgency among ‘significant blocks of lawmakers on both sides of the aisle.’ If no framework emerges by the end of the week, Gardner thinks it will come down to public pressure to dictate how long the standoff lasts.

    If the X-date is breached, Treasury will prioritize the payment of principal and interest on US Treasurys, so the chance of them defaulting is virtually nil. That said, it’s possible that Social Security payments, or military paychecks could be delayed – which would of course increase political pressure, and thus, the chances of a deal – yet which could also carry the risk of a downgrade in the credit rating of US government debt.

    Interestingly, Gardner also thinks that if the standoff is able to make it until June 15 – when quarterly tax payments are due – it might allow the debate to continue into July.

    Goldman (which Pro subscribers can find in the usual place) gets a little more specific, writing on Saturday that “A deadline of June 8 or 9 would affect a narrower range of payments. After June 2, there is no Social Security payment again until June 14, and the next coupon payment is due June 15, when the Treasury is likely to be taking in a large amount of tax revenue due to the quarterly tax deadline.”

    And for a ‘fun’ lookback at how we got here (don’t hyperbolic charts usually end well?);

    More recently:

    *  *  *

    Update (1600ET): In another letter to Congress, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was re-warned that it’s now “highly likely” that her department will run out of sufficient cash in early June, and repeated her warning that the moment could come as soon as June 1.

    “I am writing to note that we estimate that it is highly likely that Treasury will no longer be able to satisfy all of the government’s obligations if Congress has not acted to raise or suspend the debt limit by early June, and potentially as early as June 1,” Yellen said Monday in a letter to lawmakers. 

    Full letter here: 

    This fits with Goldman’s warning: 

    We estimate that as of May 17, the Treasury had around $160bn in cash and extraordinary measures remaining. Through June 1, we estimate that the Treasury will use around $85bn in room under the limit (a $130bn cash deficit offset by a $45bn reduction in intragovernmental debt), leaving around $75bn in headroom. By June 8-9 we estimate this would drop under $30bn, which is the minimum balance the Treasury has used in the past to project the debt limit deadline (Exhibit 1).

    However, the estimate is subject to substantial uncertainty so there is certainly a chance that receipts could slow more than expected and leave the Treasury short of cash by June 1 or 2. 

    Which probably explains why the short-term Bill market is at its most spooked yet…

    Although it is a low probability, Stifel warns that there is a chance that if the standoff lasts to June 15, it might extend into July.  Quarterly tax payments, due on June 15, could provide Treasury enough cash to meet all obligations into July and, in this case, Congress and the White House could conceivably use all of that time to negotiate a debt ceiling agreement.  The amount of pressure brought to bear by the public and financial market’s reaction will likely determine how long the standoff lasts. 

    However, most ominously, Stifel notes that many lawmakers in each party think the other party will bear the brunt of public anger if the debt ceiling is not raised which could mean the debt ceiling standoff lasts past this week.

    Today’s White House meeting could signal which path Washington takes.

    *  *  *

    President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) are scheduled to meet at 4:30 p.m. ET on Monday afternoon to attempt to get the debt ceiling negotiations back on track in the hopes of reaching a deal that could pass both the Republican-led House and Democratic-led Senate, after talks broke down over the weekend.

    The two have as few as 10 days to get a deal done to raise or suspend the debt ceiling before the US Treasury runs out of cash and other options to keep the lights on – with Biden cutting his G-7 trip short by four days, while speaking with McCarthy from Air Force One as he made his way home.

    “It went well,” Biden told reporters late Sunday following his arrival at the White House, adding “we’ll talk tomorrow.”

    Both Biden and McCarthy have vowed to avoid defaulting on the nation’s obligations for the first time in history, despite disagreements over how to proceed The GOP has insisted that any increase in borrowing be accompanied by steep cuts in government spending – and passed a House bill in April to accomplish this, while Democrats want a ‘clean’ increase with no strings attached. For months, Democrats have refused to negotiate, and only entered into talks in the last week as the deadline approached, the Wall Street Journal reports.

    “The gap in the top line numbers continues to be the biggest barrier to a deal,” said Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD), chair of the Main Street Caucus of nearly 100 Republicans.

    Biden has said he would like to work to narrow the deficit with some tax increases to wealthy Americans, but McCarthy said tax increases are off the table. Democrats have accused Republicans of seeking draconian spending cuts that they said would hurt education and healthcare research programs. 

    GOP lawmakers also want to attach changes to permitting rules that would speed the process of building energy projects and to strengthen work requirements for government benefit programs, notions that the White House has signaled some openness to.

    Democrats want the debt ceiling increased until after the 2024 election, while Republicans’ original bill pushed the next debt ceiling deadline to March 2024. -WSJ

    The impasse has begun to translate to Wall Street jitters – with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen twice warning that the so-called “X-date” – the day treasury reserves fall too low to cover expenses – could arrive as soon as June 1, and Fitch and Moody’s ratings agencies warning that they could place the country’s credit under review if the X-date comes too close.

    In 2011, a similar standoff between the Obama-led Democrats and Republicans prompted S&P to lower its rating of US debt, sending markets reeling.

    Goldman Sachs and other financial firms have projected the date to fall around June 8 or 9, which would give Congress another week to act.

    “We do expect investors’ concerns to mount as the X-date approaches, particularly if there’s no solution and the sides look wide apart,” UBS managing director and chief U.S. economist, Jonathan Pingle, told The Washington Post. “As we approach, we basically see equity markets are increasingly likely to sell off, volatility indexes move higher, and there are going to be shifts and concerns in financial markets that aren’t going to be great to live through.”

    “My sense is that if we get toward the end of the coming week and the rhetoric is dark, we’ll see a lot more red on the screen,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics , adding that “global investors are more panicked than domestic investors.”

    Before talks broke down on Friday – with Republicans rejecting a White House offer to freeze, rather than reduce spending, the GOP’s top negotiator, Rep. Garret Graves (LA) offered a proposal to cut federal spending by more than $1200 billion in the coming fiscal year, and to cap most agencies’ budgets through the 2030 fiscal year, according to the Post, citing two people familiar with the offer who spoke on condition of anonymity. The GOP proposal – which was essentially their April bill which was approved by the House – also called for tougher immigration enforcement at the southern US border.

    The White House responded to the offer, countering with a freeze on spending in the 2024 fiscal year to 2023 levels, arguing that it would represent a cut because budgets would not rise with inflation, according to WaPo.

    Republicans outright rejected that counter, insisting that domestic spending must undergo a significant cut so that overall spending drops in the upcoming fiscal year.

    On Monday, the House Freedom Caucus is expected to urge McCarthy to reject any offer from Biden unless it includes beefed up border security, cuts to the FBI, and every provision in the House-passed bill.

    “The Freedom Caucus will vote next week to basically accept only what we have sent to him plus what we’re adding to it,” according to Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC), a member of the caucus.

     

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 20:29

  • The True Cost Of Energy Generated From Wind Turbines
    The True Cost Of Energy Generated From Wind Turbines

    Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Claims of wind power being pro-environment often do not consider the damaging effects these projects can have on wildlife and ecosystems, thus hiding the “true cost” of such initiatives.

    Wind power projects can threaten birds that fly within their vicinity and trigger a decline in their population; it can harm marine life due to noise pollution, and affect the growth of plants in the region where it is located. Driven by subsidies granted by the federal government, the growth of wind projects has triggered concerns about the cumulative impacts they have on the environment.

    There have been growing protests against wind power projects across the world. In the United States, people have opposed setting up wind turbines in Lake Erie due to concerns about the environmental impact of the project.

    In New Jersey, protestors have asked to pause the development of an offshore wind farm which they claim has led to dolphins and whales washing ashore.

    In Norway, climate activist Greta Thunberg has protested against a proposal to build two wind farms on the Sami reindeer grazing grounds. The Sami are the only indigenous people recognized within the EU and say that their tradition of herding reindeer will be put in danger due to the wind farms.

    Wind turbines are silhouetted against the sun at Black Law wind farm, in Black Law, Scotland, on Jan. 29, 2010. (Jeff J. Mitchell/Getty Images)

    Danger to Birds and Whales

    The blades of wind turbines can be fatal to birds. When the first commercial wind power plants were established in the United States, they had not considered the impact the project would have on birds and other flying creatures like bats. Not only are birds harmed by colliding with the wind blades but flying bats can be affected by changes in the air pressure resulting from blade rotations.

    The proliferation of wind turbines is believed to pose a significant danger to the population of golden eagles which are already said to be in decline in certain regions.

    An Associated Press analysis found that a significant number of eagles were dying while fewer criminal cases were being pursued—suggesting an intentional “trade-off” between bird deaths and implementing of clean power generation.

    “They are rolling over backwards for wind companies,” said Mike Lockhart, a former U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service biologist, according to the outlet. “I think they are killing a hell of a lot more eagles than they ever anticipated.”

    Dozens of permits for wind projects that are either approved or pending are estimated to result in around 6,000 eagles getting killed off over multiple decades.

    A 2013 paper estimated the mean bird annual deaths in the United States due to collision at wind facilities to be 234,000. With roughly 50,000 megawatts of installed capacity in the country, this comes to around 4.68 bird deaths per megawatt.

    The Biden administration has set a target of deploying 30,000 megawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030. At 4.68 bird deaths per megawatt, this could result in 140,000 additional birds dying annually.

    The installation of wind turbines as well as the noise created by their operation can have a harmful effect on whales.

    Last year, an official from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC) warned against setting up wind projects off the coast of New England because it would threaten the population of right whales in the region.

    In 2011, there were around 478 of these creatures, a number that came down to 350 in 2022. In January, Rep Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) demanded an end to offshore wind activity in New Jersey after an “unprecedented” number of whales washed ashore in the region.

    Climatic and Environmental Changes

    Wind projects alter the habitats where they are located, changing the vegetation and other landscape features of the region. Setting up a wind farm necessitates the creation of open spaces. Vast open spaces tend to raise the speed of wind. Such minute changes can result in an uptick in temperatures and a reduction in humidity levels.

    Higher temperatures at night can cause plants to release more CO2 than usual. This carbon dioxide is essential for the growth of the plants. By releasing the CO2, plant growth can thus get affected. In farming areas where wind turbines are established, this could mean lower crop yields.

    A 2018 study found that wind power can impact the climate by altering the atmospheric boundary layer. “We find that generating today’s US electricity demand with wind power would warm Continental US surface temperatures by 0.24 degrees Celsius,” it said.

    Warming effect was found to be strongest at night, with the nighttime warming effect observed at 28 operational US wind farms.

    A study from 2010 discovered that “impacts from wind turbines on surface meteorological conditions are likely to affect agricultural practices as well as communities living in residential area around the farms,” it said.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 20:20

  • Panama Canal Hit By Shipping Restrictions As Water Crisis Set To Worsen
    Panama Canal Hit By Shipping Restrictions As Water Crisis Set To Worsen

    Due to severe drought, authorities at the Panama Canal are set to impose new draft restrictions in the coming days. These rules, affecting one of the world’s most crucial maritime routes, will force vessels to reduce cargo weight and incur higher fees. 

    Bloomberg cited canal spokesperson Octavio Colindres who said neo-Panamex container ships seeking to cross the canal that connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans must comply with a maximum depth of up to 44.5 feet, down from 45 feet. This will force vessels to haul less cargo or otherwise transport fewer goods. 

    Panama Canal Ship Traffic 

    Colindres said a draft restriction of 44 feet would be imposed by the end of the month. A 50-foot draft is considered average for the canal during normal weather conditions, though a recent drought has left Lake Gatun, the largest of two lakes that feed the canal, with extremely low water levels. 

    Source: Bloomberg 

    Around 6% of all global maritime traffic passes through the canal, mainly from the US, China, and Japan. During the 2016 and 2019 droughts, the draft limit went as low as 43 feet. 

    Perhaps the onset of El Niño, a weather pattern that brings drier conditions across much of Central America, is partially responsible for arid conditions, which might worsen as the Northern Hemisphere summer is less than 30 days away. 

    “The lower-than-usual water levels in the Gatun Lake are causing severe draft restrictions on vessels transiting the Panama Canal,” shipper Hapag-Lloyd told customers in recent weeks. The advisory was directed towards vessels traveling from East Asia to North America that must pay a surcharge after June 1 to traverse the canal. 

    Bloomberg warned of a possible shipping disruption if canal water levels continued to drop:

    LNG carriers, which are highly dependent on the canal, are not as affected by the draft changes because the vessels have fewer draft restrictions than those carrying heavier industrial goods or commodities. But any bottlenecks are a cause for worry considering that US LNG export expansions are due to come online in the next five years.

    Bloomberg added: 

    Asia-to-US cargo can take alternative routes through the Suez Canal. Or they can use ports in southern California, which would involve loading containers onto trucks or trains bound for Midwest and East Coast population centers. 

    And what’s to say, if the dry weather pattern continues, a vessel might be more prone to grounding, which could disrupt maritime traffic. Either way, less cargo will be flowing through the waterway due to draft restrictions.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Well, Greta, Panama Canal could use some of this melting water you described would drown the world… 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 20:00

  • PAC To 'Draft' Tucker Carlson For President In 2024 Launches
    PAC To ‘Draft’ Tucker Carlson For President In 2024 Launches

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A new political action committee (PAC) was formed to try and convince Tucker Carlson to join the 2024 presidential race, saying only the former Fox News host can defeat President Joe Biden in the general election.

    Tucker Carlson in Esztergom, Hungary, on Aug. 7, 2021. (Janos Kummer/Getty Images)

    The so-called “Draft Tucker Carlson” PAC released an advertisement, saying: “Republicans need a new leader that can stand up to Biden. It’s time to draft Tucker Carlson.”

    Shortly after Carlson was ousted from Fox News in late April, the Draft Tucker PAC filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). That ad made its debut last week on Twitter.

    “Republicans need a new leader, and Tucker Carlson is ready to lead,” the ad states, comparing Carlson to the late radio host Rush Limbaugh. “No one in America is more articulate and pins down leftists in both parties better than Tucker.”

    It also says that Carlson “is witty, sharp, and mocks woke nonsense” before adding that he will “whip Biden in a debate.”

    The head of the PAC is Chris Ekstrom, who told The Hill that he personally knows Carlson “vaguely” and was approached about forming the PAC before Carlson’s exit from Fox News. Speaking to The Hill, Ekstrom said that Carlson has a “realistic opportunity” to run for president and that other Republican candidates have issues.

    “I’m very concerned that they’re going to not move the debate as far right as it ought to be,” Ekstrom said of both former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is widely expected to announce a 2024 presidential bid. “If Tucker Carlson entered the race in a reasonable amount of time and just continued in the same territory that he was covering at Fox, I think that’d be a rude awakening for both President Trump and Governor DeSantis.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    [ZH: note the community note]

    Another individual involved in the PAC, Charlie Kolean, told the outlet that Carlson would move “the conversation to the right, just in a macro way, with candidates taking more solid stances rather than being like a moderate Republican.”

    Carlson has not made any public overtures toward a potential 2024 White House bid. Since he left Fox News, the former host has issued few public statements, although he released two viral videos on Twitter including one saying he would be moving his program to the social media platform, although it’s not clear when.

    “The best you can hope for in the news business at this point is the freedom to tell the fullest truth that you can. But there are always limits. And you know that if you bump up against those limits often enough, you will be fired for it,” Carlson said in his most recent Twitter video.

    Not a ‘Scam’

    In The Hill report, an alleged unnamed source connected to Carlson said that the former Fox host is not looking to run for office and was critical of the PAC’s efforts. The alleged source also claimed the PAC’s operators are “trying to make a quick buck” and that “no one should donate” to the group.

    “This isn’t some kind of scam PAC or grift. I hate that. That is something that I’ve always tried to oppose,” Ekstrom told the outlet. “All the money is spent on the fight with me,” he added.

    While Carlson has publicly rejected the notion of running for president and reportedly recently joked about it, Ekstrom alleged that he has been “testing the water for quite a while,” reported The Hill. He said Carlson spoke at an event in Iowa, which has historically been an early presidential primary state.

    The  PAC, Koelan told the outlet, will be “exceptionally well-funded,” and it will “easily” spend at least $150,000 to build its name recognition. It aims to sponsor polls and create radio and digital advertisement campaigns.

    For the past several years, Carlson was the highest-rated Fox News host and often had the highest-rated cable news program in general. In March, he drew well over 3 million viewers per episode, a figure that Fox News has not been able to recapture since his sudden exit in late April.

    Nielsen ratings show that the temporary replacement program, “Fox News Tonight,” has drawn significantly fewer viewers during the 8 p.m. timeslot. But one Fox News advertising executive recently said in May that several large corporate advertisers approached Fox to do campaigns. Over the years, a range of big-name companies dropped advertising during Carlson’s show over what they said were controversial statements by the former host.

    The popularity gap Carlson enjoys over Fox News among conservatives has increased sharply in the wake of his departure, said a new poll, showing that his net favorability rating among Republicans stands at +59. Fox News, by contrast, has a -4 favorability rating, the numbers show.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 19:40

  • Russia Issues Dire Warning After US Approves Ukrainian Strikes On Crimea
    Russia Issues Dire Warning After US Approves Ukrainian Strikes On Crimea

    Russia has issued another stern warning related to further potential Ukrainian attacks on Crimea. “Strikes on this territory are considered by us as an attack on any other region of the Russian Federation. It is important that the United States is fully aware of the Russian response,” Moscow’s ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, warned Sunday.

    This was in response to an earlier weekend statement by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to CNN. He said while speaking from the G7 summit in Japan over the weekend, “we have not placed limitations on Ukraine being able to strike on its territory… What we’ve said is that we won’t enable Ukraine with US-systems to attack Russia. And we believe Crimea is Ukraine.”

    Alleged drone attack in Sevastopol, Crimea in late April, via Reuters

    However, the US has consistently denied that it has OK’d Ukraine using US-supplied advanced weaponry to mount such attacks. 

     Antonov further stated on Telegram in response that “the unconditional approval of strikes on Crimea using American and other Western weapons” alongside the move among Western allies to supply Ukraine with jets “clearly demonstrate that the United States has never been interested in peace.”

    He warned the US administration against “thoughtless judgments on Crimea, especially in terms of ‘blessing’ the Kiev regime for air attacks” on the peninsula.

    Per Russian state media, other Kremlin officials weighed in even more forcefully, warning that even nuclear disaster could be the result:

    Sullivan’s remarks likewise triggered outrage from Crimean Deputy Prime Minister Georgy Muradov, who opined that by allowing Ukraine to use US-made planes to target the peninsula, the White House had “agreed to unleashing a nuclear war.”

    The official recalled that Crimea hosts Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. “An attack on one of the pillars of Russia’s strategic security legally obliges our country to use all available means to prevent it from being undermined.” 

    Russia has also recently accused Ukrainian forces of using UK-supplied long range rockets which are capable of hitting inside Russia.

    This is also a cause for concern in terms of possible Russia-NATO direct escalation: “Storm Shadow missiles, which have a range of more than 250 kilometers, give Ukraine the capacity to strike well behind Russian front lines and as far as Moscow-occupied Crimea,” US state-funded RFERL underscores, while adding that “British media reports said Kyiv had promised not to use the missiles to strike inside Russia’s territory.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 19:20

  • Trump Town Hall Destroys Fake News Silo
    Trump Town Hall Destroys Fake News Silo

    Authored by Frank Miele via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The inventors of artificial intelligence went before Congress last week and warned that without government supervision, the emerging technology could be employed by the unscrupulous to mislead people and spread falsehoods.

    It’s frightening, but not without precedent.

    If you want to know what it would look like if an AI were programmed to be relentless, ruthless, and amoral in service to a political agenda, you don’t have to look far.

    Just consider the mainstream media. They have tailored their so-called news coverage to focus entirely on attacking conservatives and covering up for Democrats. Anyone who challenges their narrative is accused of lying or peddling “conspiracy theories.” Any facts that disprove their assumptions are either ignored entirely or summarily dismissed as Republican “talking points.”

    And then remember this: Thanks to the First Amendment, the dangerous lies of the media cannot be subject to government supervision or control. It’s entirely up to us to sniff out and reject the falsehoods, but if you are a trusting soul who can’t imagine a world where you are intentionally kept in the dark about fundamental truths, then you will always be living an illusion.

    A perfect metaphor for this state of blissful ignorance was unveiled recently on the Apple TV+ show “Silo,” which tells the story of a few thousand people who have been living underground in a massive silo for generations. Their only contact with the outside world is a video link to a camera placed on the surface, which shows a forlorn landscape littered with the bodies of those few daring people who had exited the silo after growing sick of being virtual prisoners. The video of the bleak and deadly surface plays nonstop in public places to remind the residents of the silo that there is nothing for them on the outside.

    In our metaphoric analysis, that video represents the relentlessly negative and destructive narrative of the mainstream media, played over and over for an unwitting population. There is little reason for the average person to doubt what he or she has been told so convincingly by so many seemingly sincere talking heads. But what happens if the public gets a glimpse of reality?

    Just such an occurrence happened in a recent episode of “Silo” when the main generator for the silo was turned off in order to accomplish needed repairs. In the brief moment between the power going down and the backup generator kicking in, the Hiroshima-like deathscape on the video screen was replaced by a halcyon sunlit pasture of green grass and trees. Blink and you missed it. And if you are one of the characters who lives in the silo, you keep your mouth shut. No one so far has admitted what they saw or asked questions about it. That’s what happens when you are fed an endless diet of lies. The truth looks like an unappetizing worm.

    But sooner or later, as the Bard tells us, the truth will out, or in this case the worm will turn.

    That transformation for the mainstream media began on May 10, when Donald Trump climbed out of the silo and showed millions of CNN viewers that the lies they’ve been told for years were absurd and dangerous, starting with the notion that the 45th president himself is absurd and dangerous. Town hall moderator Kaitlan Collins did her best to lock down Trump with questions intended to humiliate or mock him. But what she did not count on was that having an audience full of real people from the free state of New Hampshire would make her questions look as fake as that dead planet on “Silo.”

    From the moment the crowd of 300 or so Republican and independent voters gave Trump a standing ovation as he was introduced, it was obvious that Collins was in for a long night. So was the television audience of 3.3 million presumably mostly liberal CNN viewers who have been fed a steady drumbeat of anti-Trump propaganda for more than six years. Collins did her best to unsettle Trump by bringing up topics such as the legitimacy of the 2020 election, the Jan. 6 riots, and the many legal cases brought against him by Democratic district attorneys or funded by Democratic donors. But in every single instance, Trump was prepared to answer by rejecting and refuting the left-leaning assumptions implicit in the questions. And the audience kept applauding. They even cheered when Trump called Collins a “nasty person” because she didn’t listen to his answers, or dismissed them because they didn’t agree with her own preconceptions.

    It was no doubt maddening to the usual suspects at CNN, as was made obvious by the fact that they cut short the scheduled 90-minute town hall by nearly 20 minutes and then proceeded to devote nearly two hours to re-establishing the official CNN narrative: Trump is absurd and dangerous, and can’t be trusted no matter how much those crazy people from New Hampshire seemed to like and respect him!

    Jake Tapper started the commentary by saying “Mr. Trump’s first lie was told just seconds into the night with his false familiar claim that the 2020 election was ‘a rigged election,’ and the falsehoods kept coming fast and furious about the Jan. 6 insurrection, about the threats to Vice President Pence, about Pence’s ability to overturn the election, about Covid, about the economy and more.”

    In other words, the picture you just saw where Trump was witty, charming, in full command of the facts and unwilling to be pushed around by a junior reporter was not what you saw at all. To paraphrase Obi-Wan Kenobi, “Nothing to see here. Move along.”

    Suddenly, we were back safe and sound in the universe where Trump is a troublesome oaf, and where all the so-called smart people agree that the walls are once again closing in on the mega-villain known as the MAGA Prince. It didn’t require evidence to say so, just a concert of voices in agreement that nothing we had seen with our own eyes was real. I call it the Deep Fake of mainstream media – mouths moving but the words coming out of them are untethered from reality. Just an anti-Trump, anti-MAGA, anti-conservative agenda that can be twisted around any and every news story.

    Perhaps the best (or worst) example of this can be found on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” which provides the most-one sided panel of talking heads this side of Rachel Maddow. The episode on the morning after Trump’s invasion of CNN was more proof that the former president had terrified the mainstream media mob. Which means they could only do one thing in response – lie.

    In that regard it was similar to almost any day on “Morning Joe,” but host Joe Scarborough reserved his greatest vitriol for this episode. Right out of the gate, he and his producers tried to imply that Trump was delusional about Jan. 6 by matching his words about the massive rally he held that day with pictures of the riot a few hours later at the U.S. Capitol. So when Trump said that his supporters were at the rally “with love in their heart,” Scarborough and his team conflated that with pictures of rioters at the Capitol, even though they had nothing to do with each other. It was a bit of propaganda worthy of Leni Riefenstahl, the Nazi filmmaker. Four hours of that kind of distortion was too much to watch, but I made it through 90 minutes and came to the conclusion that Scarborough and his guests were tools of a self-serving narrative to the same degree as a ChatGPT deep fake, and both were equally soulless.

    Coincidentally, CNN superstar Anderson Cooper unwittingly took up the silo metaphor himself the day after the town hall when he responded to outraged CNN viewers who could not believe that their beloved left-wing network had veered from their usual Deep Fake script and allowed Trump an opportunity to demonstrate that his brand of conservatism has a strong following that cannot be easily dismissed.

    “You have every right to be outraged today and angry and never watch this network again,” Cooper said on his show. “But do you think staying in your silo and only listening to people you agree with is going to make that person go away?”

    Based on the heated reaction to Cooper’s remarks, yes, most CNN viewers want to stick their heads in the sand and pretend that front-running candidate Trump doesn’t exist. So much easier to listen to the fake narrative that paints the former president as the most hated man on the planet than to consider, as Cooper reminded his viewers, that “the man you were so disturbed to see and hear from last night, that man is the front-runner for the Republican nomination for president. And that audience that upset you, that’s a sampling of about half the country. They are your family members, your neighbors, and they are voting. And many said they’re voting for him.”

    Of course, it’s not just television media that promotes a fake narrative about Trump and his supporters. Consider this tweet by the New York Times on Tuesday after the release of the Durham Report, which confirmed that the FBI had no legitimate evidence against Donald Trump when it launched its Russia collusion probe:

    “John Durham’s report on the FBI’s investigation into the Trump campaign’s work with Russia, which produced no startling revelations, is being viewed by some conservatives as lending credence to their conspiracy theories about the U.S. agency.”

    Say what? “No startling revelations” implies that the New York Times already knew that there was no legitimacy to the allegations against Trump. But if that’s the case, then why hasn’t the Times returned the Pulitzer Prize for National Reporting it shared with the Washington Post in 2018? Both of those esteemed newspapers promoted the Democrat-originated lie that Trump was a Russian asset and they did absolutely nothing to uncover the truth about how the FBI was co-opted by the Biden administration as a campaign asset for Hillary Clinton.

    And even more outrageously, the New York Times (the nation’s putative paper of record) twisted the damning facts of the Durham Report into a Republican fever dream that could apparently be dismissed as one more “conspiracy theory.” Hey, Mainstream Media! It’s not a conspiracy theory any more if it’s proven to be true – then, it’s a conspiracy fact. Durham concluded that the FBI persecuted the 45th president of the United States without any credible evidence, and no amount of willful denial will change that devastating charge.

    Not sure if reality will win out against the phony mainstream narrative in the long run, but my hope rests with 300 New Hampshire voters who thumbed their collective nose at CNN on national TV and said in no uncertain terms that they don’t want to live in the Fake News silo any more. What educated person does?

    Frank Miele, the retired editor of the Daily Inter Lake in Kalispell, Mont., is a columnist for RealClearPolitics. His newest book, “What Matters Most: God, Country, Family and Friends,” is available from his Amazon author page. Visit him at HeartlandDiaryUSA.com or follow him on Facebook @HeartlandDiaryUSA or on Twitter or Gettr @HeartlandDiary.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 19:00

  • Hedge Funds Most Bearish On Oil Since 2011 Just As Physical Demand Surges
    Hedge Funds Most Bearish On Oil Since 2011 Just As Physical Demand Surges

    Hedge funds may be finally piling into stocks just as the S&P breaks out above the 4,200 resistance level (because Wall Street “pros” always sell low and buy high), but unable to shake the conviction that the economy is headed for the crapper, they are ramping up their shorts in other assets to brace for what is coming, and nowhere more so than in oil where bearish hedge fund bets just hit the highest in 12 years.

    As Bloomberg shows, the trading positions of hedge funds and other non-commercial traders are at the most bearish levels since at least 2011 across a combination of all major oil contracts…

    … and in bets that are perhaps most indicative of recession expectations, speculators’ combined views on diesel and gasoil – fuels that power the economy – are near the most bearish levels since early in the Covid-19 pandemic.

    That said, positioning in gasoil and US diesel ticked slightly higher in the latest week, while commercial traders who work for the producers as well as other merchants of crude, aren’t so bearish, with some even reducing hedges against a potential price drop.

    Still, “it’s pretty remarkable to see this type of positioning,” Greg Sharenow, who manages a portfolio focused on energy and commodities at PIMCO, told Bloomberg in an interview.

    The gloom over the oil market this year – a sharp contrast to last year’s Ukraine war-driven meltup – has come from multiple directions, including expectations that the Fed’s rate hikes will provoke a contraction (oddly enough, this has not impacted stocks or bonds) and China’s disappointing rebound from its Covid-19 restrictions. Add in the threat of a US default if politicians fail to raise the debt ceiling and the possibility that OPEC+ may not deliver all the output cuts they’ve pledged, and traders have no shortage of bear scenarios to choose from.

    While investors are positioned for a significant business cycle downturn hitting petroleum consumption and prices in the remainder of 2023, prices for fuels such as gasoline and diesel are expected to hold up better than crude because fuel stocks are well below long-term seasonal averages and refineries are already processing more crude than usual according to Reuters analyst John Kemp.

    The extreme extent of the financial traders’ bearishness raises the risk of volatility if the OPEC and its allies decide to cut production further. That scenario will surely set off another brutal squeeze that forces bears to rush to exits, sends the price of oil soaring and worsens inflation.

    Meanwhile, Goldman projects any large gains in oil prices could unleash as much as $40 billion worth of buying in US crude and Brent alone from trend-following commodity trading advisers; however for now the only direction CTAs are pushing oil is lower.

    What is odd is that while hedge funds are positioned for a significant business cycle downturn hitting petroleum consumption and prices in the remainder of 2023 and have picked oil and only oil to express their bearish bets having been burned one too many times on their stock shorts, the underlying physical markets aren’t reflecting the dire state that traders are preparing for. On the contrary: refineries are processing the most crude for this time of year since the pandemic began, China crude demand is record high, air travel is rising just about everywhere, and gasoline demand in the US is now at the highest level since December 2021. At the same time, fuel inventories are below seasonal norms for gasoline and diesel in the US, and OPEC+ cuts and Canadian wildfires have limited crude supply.

    The International Energy Agency recently hiked its expectations for global oil demand growth this year on China’s post-pandemic rebound, which, despite a strong gain in consumer usage, has failed to live up to optimistic forecasts. That’s because industrial demand has been the central focus for traders, and weakness in manufacturing and trucking has kept them from going long on diesel.

    “Traders are focused on China recovery, specifically if the increase in consumer-led consumption can meaningfully outstrip weakness in industrial demand,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth.

    While a reversal of the bearish sentiment doesn’t appear imminent, a continued decline in inventories may help oil beat other asset classes.

    “If you do genuinely believe that we’re in a capital-disciplined and under-investing environment, then when the economy does stabilize, commodities, and oil within that, are likely to outperform over an extended period of time,” Pimco’s Sharenow said.

    In a note from Wells Fargo equity reearch, the bank writes that while its model implies a Q2 2023 build, the bank has not seen that in the US or other weekly data. In fact, its tracking of US/ARA and floating inventories (crude + products) indicates a modest draw since 3/31, with The most recent reports from China indicate draws from their oil storage to support local refining demand. And while visibility into China’s refined product stocks is murky, stronger crack spread trends imply no unusual refined product builds have occurred.

    As such, the bank’s base case assumption remains a modest recession by YE’23. If the economy avoids that outcome, “then an undersupplied oil market becomes a more likely event… This implies risk/reward for oil prices (and by extension, energy equities) is tilting more favorably as the calendar reaches mid-year.”

    Goldman agrees and writes that “inventory draws appear to have started” among global visible stocks, signaling a turning point for the market; the bank adds that oil price weakness has been driven by stronger-than-expected supply from Russia and record releases from US strategic reserves. And of course relentless shorting by hedge funds who are poised for another bruising short squeeze in the weeks ahead.

    Finally, while hedge funds are betting that OPEC is quietly overproducing and exporting much more than their recent quota permits, a recent update by Goldman Sachs shows that bears may be in for a very reude awakening, as seaborne net exports by OPEC countries which announced a cut in April have finally tumbled by over 1mmb/d over the past 2 weeks.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 18:40

  • 646 Hospitals At Risk Of Closure, Ranked By State
    646 Hospitals At Risk Of Closure, Ranked By State

    By Laura Dyrda of Becker Hospital Review

    There are 646 rural hospitals at risk of closure due to financial issues, comprising around 30 percent of all rural hospitals in the U.S., according to the Center for Healthcare Quality & Payment Reform.

    The hospitals face losses on patient services as health plans aren’t paying enough to cover the cost of care delivery. The losses will likely increase as inflation and workforce shortages persist, according to the report, which was released in April. While rural hospitals are receiving some support through grants, local tax revenues or other profits, they still have low financial reserves and remain at risk.

    More than half the states in the U.S. report 25 percent or more of their rural hospitals are at risk of closure, and more than 200 hospitals nationwide are at immediate risk of closing.

    Here are the number and percentage of rural hospitals at risk of closing by state from the analysis:

     

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 18:20

  • Former Deputy Nat'l Security Adviser: FBI, CIA & DOJ Will Rig 2024 Election
    Former Deputy Nat’l Security Adviser: FBI, CIA & DOJ Will Rig 2024 Election

    Former Deputy National Security Adviser K.T. McFarland, who served for the first four months of the Trump administration under Michael Flynn, says that the deep state is going to rig the 2024 US election following their success in 2020.

    “We now have black-and-white evidence that the FBI interfered in the 2016 election. When they failed to elect Hillary Clinton, they set out to destroy the Trump administration,” she told Fox Business‘ Maria Bartiromo.

    “Go back to 2020. This time, the CIA got involved in the election with those 51 former intel agents who said the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation. So they’ve gotten away with it for two elections. They will surely try and get away with it in 2024, right?

    Because there are no consequences…

    “There is now hard evidence that there was election interference by the U.S. intelligence agencies and the Department of Justice. Those individuals must be terrified that a Republican president comes in with a Republican Attorney General, investigates them, and charges them with all of the crimes they have committed over the last eight years. Take it to the bank.

    They will absolutely interfere in 2024…

    These people are selling us out. Not only to foreign leaders, but they are interfering in our elections.

    They are tearing up the Constitution… This is just a gut punch to the American people.“

    Watch:

    h/t @KanekoaTheGreat

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 18:00

  • Lawmakers Want Answers On NIH Trans Kids Study That Led To Two Suicides
    Lawmakers Want Answers On NIH Trans Kids Study That Led To Two Suicides

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    Republican lawmakers in the House and Senate have demanded answers from the National Institutes of Health over a two year study involving prescribing gender changing hormones to hundreds of children, as it emerged that two of the ‘youths’ ended up killing themselves.

    As Fox News reports, the study titled “Psychosocial Functioning in Transgender Youth after 2 Years of Hormones,” examined 315 individuals  “between the ages of 12 and 20 who identify as transgender and were given cross-sex hormones.”

    The study, involving 240 children, was funded by NIH which admits that “two young people tragically died by suicide.” 

    Despite the deaths, the NIH carried on the study to its conclusion.

    Over a dozen lawmakers, including Lauren Boebert, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul have penned a letter to the NIH director Dr. Lawrence Tabak.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The letter notes that “During this study, two young people died by suicide and eleven reported suicidal ideation,” adding that “Rather than shutting the study down after such serious adverse events, the researchers published their paper, concluding that the study was a success because cross-sex hormones had altered subjects’ physical appearance and improved psychosocial functioning.” 

    Researchers assert that “During the study period, appearance congruence, positive affect, and life satisfaction increased, and depression and anxiety symptoms decreased.”

    They also claim that despite 11 kids expressing a desire to kill themselves and two actually committing suicide, “Increases in appearance congruence were associated with concurrent increases in positive affect and life satisfaction and decreases in depression and anxiety symptoms.”

    North Carolina Senator Ted Budd, another co-signer of the GOP letter described the study as “absolutely tragic,” charging that those involved are “in search of an agenda and justifying an agenda, they’re not really about children’s safety as we’ve seen from the suicides.”

    The Republicans further note in their letter that “the four clinics and some of the researchers who conducted this experiment are outspoken advocates for conducting gender transition interventions on children.”

    “Were the individuals who tragically died by suicide while participating in this study minors?” the lawmakers ask, adding “Were participants and their parents given the opportunity to reconsider their consent and withdraw from this research in light of the suicides?”

    Watch:

    https://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=6327841400112&w=466&h=263Watch the latest video at foxnews.com

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 17:40

  • WTF Chart Of The Day: Bud Light Sales Dump For 6th Straight Week
    WTF Chart Of The Day: Bud Light Sales Dump For 6th Straight Week

    New industry data, according to The Wall Street Journal, shows that sales of Bud Light have declined for another week amid the controversy over the company’s decision to engage in a social media campaign with transgender influencer and activist Dylan Mulvaney.

    In the week starting on May 8, U.S. retail sales tumbled 28% compared with the same period a year ago, according to an analysis of Nielsen data by consulting company Bump Williams, with the decline showing no signs of stopping…

    Source: The Wall Street Journal

    As we have previously noted, the company placed Alissa Heinerscheid – the first woman in Bud Light’s four-decade history to run its marketing – and her boss, Daniel Blake, on leave. Heinerscheid was replaced in the role of head marketer for Bud Light by a seasoned beer executive and Blake’s role was eliminated to give senior marketers closer oversight on brand decisions. Heinerscheid and Blake remain on leave.

    Additionally, Bud Light has reportedly responded by buying unsold cases of the beer that are past their expiration date, signaling a change in the brand’s direction and an attempt to draw back to its original formula that appeals implicitly to its core customers.

    “The unfortunate reality that it happened without higher-level approval exposed a concerning lack of oversight for brand marketing decisions,” said in a Facebook statement.

    “That lack of oversight has been addressed.”

    Ironically, Anheuser-Busch is getting it in both ends with The Human Rights Campaign, an LGBT rights organization, said Anheuser-Busch had showed a “profound lack of fortitude” and should have stood in solidarity with Mulvaney as people attacked her on social-media and conservative news outlets. The group this month suspended the brewer’s Corporate Equality Index score, which ranks companies on their policies for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer employees.

    A Bud Light 2023 Super Bowl ad featured actor Miles Teller and his wife, Keleigh Sperry Teller, having an impromptu dance party in their living room.

    So, should we call this a boycott… or a girlcott?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 17:20

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May 22

Today’s News 22nd May 2023

  • China Dominates The World's Biggest Steel Producers
    China Dominates The World’s Biggest Steel Producers

    Steel is a critical component of modern industry and economy, essential for the construction of buildings, automobiles, and many other appliances and infrastructure used in our daily lives.

    Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte create this infographic, using data from the World Steel Association, to visualize the world’s top steel-producing countries, and highlights China’s ascent to the top, as it now makes up more than half of the world’s steel production.

    The State of Global Steel Production

    Global steel production in 2022 reached 1,878 million tonnes, barely surpassing the pre-pandemic production of 1,875 million tonnes in 2019.

    Country 2022 Production (in million tonnes) Annual Production Change Global Share
    🇨🇳 China 1013.0 -2.0% 53.9%
    🇮🇳 India 124.8 5.3% 6.6%
    🇯🇵 Japan 89.2 -7.9% 4.8%
    🇺🇸 United States 80.5 -6.5% 4.3%
    🇷🇺 Russia 71.5 -5.8% 3.8%
    🇰🇷 South Korea 65.9 -6.9% 3.5%
    🇩🇪 Germany 36.8 -8.8% 2.0%
    🇹🇷 Türkiye 35.1 -15.0% 1.9%
    🇧🇷 Brazil 34.0 -6.5% 1.8%
    🇮🇷 Iran 30.6 6.8% 1.6%
    🇮🇹 Italy 21.6 -13.0% 1.1%
    🇹🇼 Taiwan 20.7 -12.1% 1.1%
    🇻🇳 Vietnam 20.0 -15.0% 1.1%
    🇲🇽 Mexico 18.2 -1.9% 1.0%
    🇮🇩 Indonesia 15.6 8.3% 0.8%
    Rest of World 201.0 -11.2% 10.7%
    World Total 1878.5 -3.9% 100.0%

    2022’s steel production marked a significant reduction compared to the post-pandemic rebound of 1,960 million tonnes in 2021, with a year-over-year decline of 4.2%–the largest drop since 2009, and prior to that, 1991.

    This decline was spread across many of the world’s top steel producers, with only three of the top fifteen countries, India, Iran, and Indonesia, increasing their yearly production. Most of the other top steel-producing countries saw annual production declines of more than 5%, with Turkey, Italy, Taiwan, and Vietnam’s production all declining by double digits.

    Even the world’s top steel-producing nation, China, experienced a modest 2% decline, which due to the country’s large production amounted to a decline of 19.8 million tonnes, more than many other nations produce in a year.

    Despite India, the world’s second-largest steel producer, increasing its production by 5.3%, the country’s output still amounts to just over one-tenth of the steel produced by China.

    China’s Meteoric Rise in Steel Production

    Although China dominates the world’s steel production with more than a 54% share today, this hasn’t always been the case.

    In 1967, the World Steel Association’s first recorded year of steel production figures, China only produced an estimated 14 million tonnes, making up barely 3% of global output. At that time, the U.S. and the USSR were competing as the world’s top steel producers at 115 and 102 million tonnes respectively, followed by Japan at 62 million tonnes.

    Almost three decades later in 1996, China had successively overtaken Russia, the U.S., and Japan to become the top steel-producing nation with 101 million tonnes of steel produced that year.

    The early 2000s marked a period of rapid growth for China, with consistent double-digit percentage increases in steel production each year.

    The Recent Decline in China’s Steel Production

    Since the early 2000s, China’s average annual growth in steel production has slowed to 3.4% over the last decade (2013-2022), a considerable decline compared to the previous decade’s (2003-2012) 15.2% average annual growth rate.

    The past couple of years have seen China’s steel production decline, with 2021 and 2022 marking the first time the country’s production fell for two consecutive years in a row.

    While it’s unlikely China will relinquish its position as the top steel-producing nation anytime soon, it remains to be seen whether this recent decline marks the beginning of a new trend or just a brief deviation from the country’s consistent production growth.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 02:45

  • Main Threat To Europe Is Resurgence In Islamic Terror Attacks, Warns French Minister Ahead Of Hosting Olympics
    Main Threat To Europe Is Resurgence In Islamic Terror Attacks, Warns French Minister Ahead Of Hosting Olympics

    Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

    French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin has asked the U.S. government for greater intelligence sharing and warned of a resurgence in Islamic terrorist threats in Europe ahead of France hosting global sporting events in the coming year.

    During a two-day trip to Washington and New York this week, the French minister asked for more efficient Franco-American counter-terrorism cooperation and claimed Islamic terrorism remains the biggest threat to national security in Europe.

    “We have come to remind them that for Europeans and for France the primary risk is Sunni Islamist terrorism and that anti-terrorist collaboration between intelligence services is absolutely essential,” Darmanin said in an interview with Agence France-Presse.

    “At a time when Americans may have a more national perspective in terms of challenges (today) — white supremacy, repeated shootings, conspiracies — they must not forget what appears to us to be the primary threat in Europe: Sunni terrorism,” he added.

    Darmanin was speaking ahead of his country hosting the Rugby World Cup later this year and the Olympics next summer.

    He claimed there is yet again a risk of “Islamist terrorism,” which would again target France and her European neighbors, describing “an endogenous threat from people without networks but who, becoming radicalized, take action in a few hours, in a few days (…) someone who takes a knife, goes into a bakery and kills people.”

    France has been a frequent target for acts of terror, both from external threats and homegrown radicalized attackers facilitated by mass immigration from the Middle East, and the historically liberal visa requirements afforded to its Islam-dominated former colonies in North Africa.

    The severity of Islamist-motivated terror attacks peaked halfway through the last decade when attackers targeted a concert at the Bataclan theater, murdering 137 and injuring at least 416 people in November 2015. This was followed by a Tunisian Islamist terrorist driving a 19-ton cargo truck down the promenade in the southern city of Nice in July 2016; he rammed through a crowd celebrating Bastille Day, killing 86 people and injuring 434 others.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 05/22/2023 – 02:00

  • US National Security Experts Urge No More Weapons For Ukraine In NY Times
    US National Security Experts Urge No More Weapons For Ukraine In NY Times

    Via Consortium News, 

    Last week, The New York Times published a full-page advertisement signed by 15 U.S. national security experts about the war in Ukraine. It was headed “The U.S. Should Be a Force for Peace in the World,” and was drafted by the Eisenhower Media Network.

    While condemning Russia’s invasion, the statement provides a more objective account of the crisis in Ukraine than the U.S. government or The New York Times has previously presented to the public, including the disastrous U.S. role in NATO expansion, the warnings ignored by successive U.S. administrations and the escalating tensions that ultimately led to war.

    The statement calls the war an “unmitigated disaster,” and urges President Joe Biden and Congress “to end the war speedily through diplomacy, especially given the dangers of military escalation that could spiral out of control.”

    This call for diplomacy by wise, experienced former insiders — U.S. diplomats, military officers and civilian officials — would have been a welcome intervention on any one of the past 442 days of this war. Yet their appeal now comes at an especially critical moment in the war.

    On May 10, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he is delaying Ukraine’s long-awaited “spring offensive” to avoid “unacceptable” losses to Ukrainian forces.

    Western policy has repeatedly put Zelenskyy in near-impossible positions, caught between the need to show signs of progress on the battlefield to justify further Western support and arms deliveries and, on the other hand, the shocking human cost of continued war represented by the fresh graveyards where tens of thousands of Ukrainians now lie buried.

    It is not clear how a delay in the planned Ukrainian counter-attack would prevent it leading to unacceptable Ukrainian losses when it finally occurs, unless the delay in fact leads to scaling back and calling off many of the operations that have been planned.

    Zelensky appears to be reaching a limit in terms of how many more of his people he is willing to sacrifice to satisfy Western demands for signs of military progress to hold together the Western alliance and maintain the flow of weapons and money to Ukraine.

    Boris Johnson’s Role 

    Zelensky’s predicament is certainly the fault of Russia’s invasion, but also of his April 2022 deal with the devil in the shape of then-U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

    Johnson promised Zelensky that the U.K. and the “collective West” were “in it for the long run” and would back him to recover all of Ukraine’s former territory, just as long as Ukraine stopped negotiating with Russia.

    Johnson was never in a position to fulfill that promise and, since he was forced to resign as prime minister, he has endorsed a Russian withdrawal only from the territory it invaded since February 2022, not a return to pre-2014 borders. Yet that compromise was exactly what he talked Zelensky out of agreeing to in April 2022, when most of the war’s dead were still alive and the framework of a peace agreement was on the table at diplomatic talks in Turkey.

    Zelensky has tried desperately to hold his Western backers to Johnson’s overblown promise. But short of direct U.S. and NATO military intervention, it seems that no quantity of Western weapons can decisively break the stalemate in what has degenerated into a brutal war of attrition, fought mainly by artillery and trench and urban warfare.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    An American general bragged that the West has supplied Ukraine with 600 different weapons systems, but this itself creates problems. For example, the different 105 mm guns sent by the U.K., France, Germany and the U.S. all use different shells. And each time heavy losses force Ukraine to re-form survivors into new units, many of them have to be retrained on weapons and equipment they’ve never used before.

    Leaked Pentagon Document

    Despite U.S. deliveries of at least six types of anti-aircraft missiles — Stinger, NASAMS, Hawk, Rim-7, Avenger, and at least one Patriot missile battery — a leaked Pentagon document revealed that Ukraine’s Russian-built S-300 and Buk anti-aircraft systems still make up almost 90 percent of its main air defenses.

    NATO countries have searched their weapons stockpiles for all the missiles they can provide for those systems, but Ukraine has nearly exhausted those supplies, leaving its forces newly vulnerable to Russian air strikes just as it prepares to launch its new counter-attack.

    Since at least June 2022, Biden and other U.S. officials have acknowledged that the war must end in a diplomatic settlement, and have insisted that they are arming Ukraine to put it “in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.” Until now, they have claimed that each new weapons system they have sent and each Ukrainian counter-offensive have contributed to that goal and left Ukraine in a stronger position.

    But the leaked Pentagon documents and recent statements by U.S. and Ukrainian officials make it clear that Ukraine’s planned spring offensive, already delayed into summer, would lack the previous element of surprise and encounter stronger Russian defenses than the offensives that recovered some of its lost territory last fall.

    One leaked Pentagon document warned that “enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive,” concluding that it would probably make smaller territorial gains than the fall offensives did.

    NATO’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting on April 21. (NATO)

    How can a new offensive with mixed results and higher casualties put Ukraine in a stronger position at a currently non-existent negotiating table? If the offensive reveals that even huge quantities of Western military aid have failed to give Ukraine military superiority or reduce its casualties to a sustainable level, it could very well leave Ukraine in a weaker negotiating position, instead of a stronger one.

    Meanwhile, offers to mediate peace talks have been pouring in from countries all over the world, from the Vatican to China to Brazil. It has been six months since the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley suggested publicly, after Ukraine’s military gains last fall, that the moment had come to negotiate from a position of strength. “When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it,” he said.

    It would be doubly or triply tragic if, on top of the diplomatic failures that led to the war in the first place and the U.S. and U.K. undermining peace negotiations in April 2022, the chance for diplomacy that Milley wanted to seize is lost in the forlorn hope of attaining an even stronger negotiating position that is not really achievable.

    If the U.S. persists in backing the plan for a Ukrainian offensive, instead of encouraging Zelenskyy to seize the moment for diplomacy, it will share considerable responsibility for the failure to seize the chance for peace, and for the appalling and ever-rising human costs of this war.

    The experts who signed The New York Times statement recalled that, in 1997, 50 senior U.S. foreign policy experts warned President Bill Clinton that expanding NATO was a “policy error of historic proportions” and that, unfortunately, Clinton chose to ignore the warning. Biden, who is now pursuing his own policy error of historic proportions by prolonging this war, would do well to take the advice of today’s policy experts by helping to forge a diplomatic settlement and making the United States a force for peace in the world.

    * * *

    TIMELINE

    1990 – U.S. assures Russia that NATO will not expand towards its border “…there would be no extension of…NATO one inch to the east,” says US Secretary of State James Baker.

    1996 – U.S. weapons manufacturers form the Committee to Expand NATO, spending over $51 million lobbying Congress.

    1997 – 50 foreign policy experts including former senators, retired military officers and diplomats sign an open letter stating NATO expansion to be “a policy error of historic proportions.”

    1999 – NATO admits Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic to NATO. U.S. and NATO bomb Russia’s ally, Serbia.

    2001 – U.S. unilaterally withdraws from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.

    2004 – Seven more Eastern European nations join NATO. NATO troops are now directly on Russia’s border.

    2004 – Russia’s parliament passed a resolution denouncing NATO’s expansion. Putin responded by saying that Russia would “build our defense and security policy correspondingly.”

    2008 – NATO leaders announced plans to bring Ukraine and Georgia, also on Russia’s borders, into NATO.

    2009 – U.S. announced plans to put missile systems into Poland and Romania.

     

    2014 – Legally elected Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, fled violence to Moscow. Russia views ouster as a coup by U.S. and NATO nations.

    2016 – U.S. begins troop buildup in Europe.

    2019 – U.S. unilaterally withdraws from Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty.

    2020 – U.S. unilaterally withdraws from Open Skies Treaty.

    2021 – Russia submits negotiation proposals while sending more forces to the border with Ukraine. U.S. and NATO officials reject the Russian proposals immediately.

    Feb 24, 2022 – Russia invades Ukraine, starting the Russia-Ukraine War.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 23:30

  • Hunter Biden Faces Call For Key Business Associates In The Arkansas Proceedings
    Hunter Biden Faces Call For Key Business Associates In The Arkansas Proceedings

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    There is a new and interesting development in Arkansas where attorneys for Lunden Alexis Roberts have prepared a list of witnesses for the upcoming proceedings involving Hunter Biden’s daughter, Navy.

    As previously discussed, Hunter Biden is seeking to reduce child support payments and has balked at Navy being able to use the Biden name. If successful, this could get a lot worse for Hunter in his alleged efforts to conceal his past income.

    On the list are business partners at the center of the influence peddling scandal.

    (Thank you to the reader who sent this possibly prophetic intersection picture).

    On the list are business partners who are connected to millions of dollars acquired from foreign interests in China, Ukraine and other countries. Also on the list is New York City art gallery owner Georges Bergès who continues to sell his art.  Bergès has reportedly pushed back on congressional efforts to reveal details on these proceeds and buyers even though former government ethicists have raised concerns over the sales.

    The costs of these proceedings and high-priced legal team would seem to undermine claims of financial distress by Biden. However, by putting his financial worth at issue, Hunter has opened up a new front in battling over the disclosure of his past dealings. Some of his past associates are reportedly cooperating with House investigators in tracking foreign payments.

    Even the Washington Post has belatedly published an editorial admitting that this is all a serious concern over influence peddling. In an editorial titled  “Millions flowed to Biden family members. Don’t pretend it doesn’t matter.”

    It was a bittersweet moment for many of us who have been writing about these dealings for years as newspapers like the Post downplayed the scandal or the authenticity of the laptop. Media outlets like National Public Radio (NPR)  declared that it “not want to waste our time on stories that are not really stories, and we don’t want to waste the listeners’ and readers’ time on stories that are just pure distractions.” These disclosures have been forced into the public despite the best efforts of the Post and other media.  Indeed, recently the Post’s Philip Bump derided the House investigation as a “fishing expedition . . .  it’s nearly all innuendo, a big corkboard with lots of pictures but little interconnecting string.” His “witchhunt” attack was then repeated by others at the Post.

    Despite these efforts, Hunter Biden appears to doing his level best to force the issue in Arkansas. It is not clear if the court will call any of these witnesses. However, since Hunter has put his finances at issue, some disclosures will need to be made.

    As for Navy, she is still uncertain if the court will allow her to use the Biden name despite her father’s efforts to the contrary. While it does not appear that Hunter (who lives in a California mansion) is financially broke, his actions (and those of the President and First Lady) toward this little girl show a moral deficit and delinquency that is abundantly obvious.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 23:00

  • NYC Has A Shoplifting Problem… And Kiosks Aren't Going To Stop It!
    NYC Has A Shoplifting Problem… And Kiosks Aren’t Going To Stop It!

    Authored by Andrea Widburg via AmericanThinker.com,

    Like all Democrat-run cities that turned against police in 2020, New York City has a crime problem, including an explosive uptick in shoplifting. Fortunately for New York City store owners, Mayor Eric Adams has a plan. The problem is that, as with all lefty plans, it will cost money and almost certainly be completely useless.

    Ever since the George Floyd riots caused leftist-managed cities to defund their police, all sorts of crimes have increased. In New York City, the crime that’s really taken off is shoplifting.

    In the first eight months of 2021, shoplifting in New York increased by 30% over rates in 2020. Of course, one could argue that slowly ending the lockdown was what made the difference. However, that wouldn’t explain what happened in 2022. In that year, shoplifting went up by another 45% over rates in 2021, with an even better marker being the fact that it was 275% higher than a decade or so earlier.

    Shoplifting may be a non-violent crime, but it has a disastrous effect on people in the community because stores, including big box stores, respond to theft in two different ways: First, they raise their prices; then when that proves ineffective, they pick up their marbles and go home by shutting down stores. In San Francisco, for example, Walgreens closed five stores due to shoplifting. Target, meanwhile, predicts that retail crime will cost it as much as $1.3 billion:

    Crime-battered retail giant Target said it expects to suffer as much as a $1.3 billion hit to its bottom line because of “theft and organized crime,” according to the company’s first-quarter earnings report released Wednesday.

    The Minneapolis-based chain said its profit will be squeezed by “$500 million more than what we saw last year” – when the company lost as much as $800 million from “inventory shrink.”

    Considering that Target voiced its full-throated support for BLM and dug deep in its pocket to support the communist organization, one can’t help but notice an “actions have consequences” scenario at work. That’s a shame because Target used to be a very nice place. Now, though, aside from shoplifting, lots of people (me included) are fed up with its Pride shenanigans, which it’s now aimed at children. But I digress…

    New York mayor Eric Adams seems to have been feeling the heat from merchants in New York City, so his office has announced a “crackdown on shoplifting plan.”

    As always, though, when the government steps in to help, the devil is in the details:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And yes, that screen shot is real, not a Photoshop. According to Fox 5’s full report,

    The new crackdown includes giving first-time offenders intervention programs instead of prosecution, de-escalation training for retail employees, establishing neighborhood retail watch groups to share information about a theft in real-time with one another and the police, and installing kiosks in stores to connect would-be thieves with social service programs.

    One of the things that everyone has noticed about shoplifters is that they’re not starved, Dickensian-style waifs stealing a loaf of bread to survive. Instead, they’re organized gangs that go in and steal merchandise that has a good retail value on the street:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Or if they’re eating what they steal, it’s party time, not starvation time:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    What’s happening is organized crime:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In other words, little police kiosks promising social services (which will augment all the posters about social services in the crime-ridden NY subway) are not going to change things. Nor will friendly little “intervention programs” affect what is hardcore criminal activity. The NYC plan is taking a flyswatter to an out-of-control wild boar.

    I would say that the people of NYC deserve better but, actually, they don’t. This is what they voted for. It’s not just that Adams garnered 80.4% of the vote in Manhattan, 76% in the Bronx, 70.8% in Brooklyn, and 59.8% in Queens, with only Staten Island showing the good sense to vote for Curtis Sliwa (66.4% of the votes). It’s also that a total of only 1,125,000 turned out to vote, out of a city with a population that’s close to 9,000,000.

    The only ones I feel for are the conservatives (some of whom I count among my good friends) who took the time and made the effort to vote. As to those people, I’ve heard that Florida’s a nice place, as are most of the southern states.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 22:30

  • Where International Travelers Spend The Most
    Where International Travelers Spend The Most

    When it comes to travel, some tourists spare no expense. And some cities are well suited to attract them.

    From the luxurious desert city of Dubai to the city of light and love, Paris, many international travelers today are looking to tick the crème de la crème of destinations off their bucket lists. In some cases, they’re seeking out the opulent experiences they missed out on when the pandemic brought the world to a halt.

    In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Freny Fernandez and Bhabna Banerjee use the latest research by the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) to highlight the top 10 cities where international travelers spent the most in 2022.

    Cities of Opulence

    Last year, Dubai took top spot, followed by nearby Doha, Qatar.

    Rank City Country / Region Income from International Tourists (2022)
    #1 Dubai 🇦🇪 UAE $29.42B
    #2 Doha 🇶🇦 Qatar $16.79B
    #3 London 🇬🇧 UK $16.07B
    #4 Macau 🇲🇴 Macau SAR $15.58B
    #5 Amsterdam 🇳🇱 Netherlands $13.59B
    #6 Istanbul 🇹🇷 Türkiye $13.13B
    #7 Barcelona 🇪🇸 Spain $12.73B
    #8 New York 🇺🇸 U.S. $12.45B
    #9 Singapore 🇸🇬 Singapore $10.97B
    #10 Paris 🇫🇷 France $9.76B

    Singapore and Macau represented East Asia, and New York was the sole city from the Americas on the list.

    It’s worth noting that this list differs somewhat from overall tourism spending, which would include domestic travel spending as well. Large countries like the United States and China fare better in that ranking.

    City Spotlight: Destinations Favored by Big Spenders

    When you think of luxury travel, you think of five-star hotels, Michelin-star restaurants, luxury retail outlets, and many other premium experiences. And these cities offered their international travelers just that.

    #1. Dubai

    From the Burj Khalifa, currently the world’s tallest building, to the desert excursions and yacht cruises, Dubai offers extravagant experiences for international visitors. The city’s reputation for tax-free, high-end shopping and its commitment to providing a luxurious experience has made it a top travel destination for luxury shoppers from around the world.

    Location is another factor in the city’s success. Dubai sits at the natural crossroads between Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, and is home to one of the world’s busiest, well-connected airports.

    International travelers spent close to $30 billion in the city in 2022.

    #3. London

    London has long been a preferred location for the ultra-wealthy, and as a result, the city has an abundance of amenities for well-heeled travelers. For one, London is home to more five star hotels than any other city. As well, London offers ultra-wealthy travelers access to a wide range of high-end designer retailers, as well as world-famous museums, galleries, and landmarks.

    Of course, the UK’s largest city also sees a high overall volume of tourists overall, which adds to the $16 billion global visitors spent in the city in 2022.

    #4. Macau

    Known as the Las Vegas of Asia, Macau’s gambling hub has been a magnet for international tourists for years. However, as the city began re-imagining its tourism strategies post-pandemic, it has grown stronger as an international tourist destination.

    Outside tourists brought in $15.6 billion in 2022, and that number is only expected to multiply further over the next decade. This growth is being fueled by China and Hong Kong, which account for the lion’s share of visits.

    Note: Although Macau is now a part of China, it remains a Special Administrative Region under the “One Country, Two Systems” principle.

    Transforming Travel Trends

    The global travel industry continues to recover from the pandemic, which is good news for the many nations that economically rely on tourism.

    As travel restrictions were lifted, many tourists flocked to remote destinations that were less traveled. However, this WTTC research is proof that the world’s iconic cities are making their way back onto tourist itineraries once again.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 22:00

  • Abandon The Swamp
    Abandon The Swamp

    Authored by Roger Kimball via American Greatness,

    Suppose a document drops in the wilderness and no one is around to hear it. Does it make a sound?

    I submit that John Durham just tested this Bishop Berkeleyesque query. The special counsel spent four years beavering away in the forests of the deep state and what did he produce?

    Three hundred pages telling us what, for the most part, we already knew and with the result that exactly nothing, apart from a little hand wringing, will happen. 

    We already knew that James Comey, Robert Mueller, Andrew McCabe, Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, Bruce Ohr, Nellie Ohr, John Brennan, Susan Rice, Michael Sussmann, Kevin Clinesmith, and all the other characters in and around the Russia Collusion Delusion had fabricated the story of Trump’s supposed connection with Russia out of whole cloth. 

    We already knew that they had gone out of their way to protect Hillary Clinton. 

    We knew that there was no predicate for obtaining a FISA warrant against Carter Page (one of many thousands of such warrants), thus opening a back door into the Trump campaign. 

    We knew that the surveillance apparatus of the regime had been weaponized to prevent Donald Trump from being elected and then, when he surprised everyone by winning anyway, to taint his administration and render him radioactive.  

    What should we make of Durham’s non-revelatory revelations? I think that, wittingly or not, they were just a big exercise in track-covering, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Well, nothing beyond the sound and fury, anyway.

    Still, Durham’s bulletin is useful as a marker of the futility in which we labor. André Gide touched on this point when he reminded us that “Toutes choses sont dites déjà, mais comme personne n’écoute, il faut toujours recommencer.” Over the past five or six years, virtually everything that Durham said in his report had already been said. But because no one was listening, it is necessary to start again and say it once more. 

    In this spirit, I am going to say again some things I have said elsewhere, beginning with what has become my ritual invocation of British Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s observation that a week is a long time in politics. That’s time enough, as T. S. Eliot said in another context, “for a hundred indecisions, And for a hundred visions and revisions, Before the taking of a toast and tea.”

    Until the night of March 5, 2023, I suspected that “The Donald Trump Show,” which has been such blockbuster entertainment, might have entered its final season. That’s still possible, of course. The people clamoring for its cancellation are many and vociferous. Moreover, they have another concession with which they propose to entertain us: “The Ron DeSantis Deliverance.” Someday, I’d like to see that show myself.

    I wonder, though, about the most profitable time to air it. 2024? Perhaps. But I think the jury is still out on that. We’ll know more after DeSantis finally announces what he has already made clear, namely that he, too, is running for the presidency in 2024. He will, if the past is any guide, get a bump in the polls. But at the moment, anyway, I am inclined to think that 2024 belongs to the Donald. Why? There are many reasons.

    One vivid reason was vouchsafed us during the final hours of the 2023 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) program in National Harbor, Maryland, in March. It was then that Trump addressed the crowd. C-SPAN described the speech as “remarks.” To me, the word “remarks” suggests something brief and casual. Trump’s performance was long and, for Trump, well-prepared.

    As usual with the former president, the talk was peppered with digressions and offhand observations. But he was clearly following a script. Chris Christie, formerly an ally, sighed that the room was only half full (was it?) and that Trump was “not what he used to be.” Opinions about that vary. I thought the talk bristled with rhetorical electricity. And in terms of substance, it was one of the most forthright and powerful political speeches I’ve heard. 

    Earlier that day, Trump had won the CPAC straw poll with 62 percent of the vote. DeSantis was the runner-up with 20 percent. As of May 19, with a half a dozen Republican candidates in the field, Trump leads by 42 points. Is that significant? I don’t know. It’s early days. DeSantis hasn’t even officially declared yet, A week is a long time, etc., etc.

    But right now, as of May 20, I would say this about the 2024 race on the Republican side: There are two plausible candidates: Trump and DeSantis.

    DeSantis has the blessing of the donor class and Conservatism, Inc. He’s a great governor and would probably make an effective president.

    Trump has the unwavering support of the MAGA millions and most allotropes of the dissident Right. There’s plenty of exasperation about Trump, not least among those who worked with him in his first term. He’s a difficult, demanding, and mercurial person. But his CPAC speech (and, more recently, his performance at a CNN “townhall” with Kaitlan Collins) demonstrated why he’s beloved by his supporters and feared and hated by his opponents.

    Trump said many bold and controversial things in the course of his speech.

    I’ll concentrate on two themes.

    The first—it was the thing that really set heads spinning—revolved around the word “retribution.” 

    “In 2016,” he said, “I declared, I am your voice. Today, I add, I am your warrior, I am your justice, and for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.” 

    And just in case you missed that last bit, he repeated it. “I am your retribution.”

    The pundits love-hated that, just as they were appalled by this promise: “I will totally obliterate the deep state.” I think he meant it, too. “I will fire the unelected bureaucrats and shadow forces who have weaponized our justice system. . . . I will put the people back in charge of this country again.”

    ’Tis a consummation devoutly to be wished.

    Could he actually do it? That’s a very good question. His track record during his first term was impressive but not dispositive, partly because he was surrounded by the swamp and its denizens. Really, he didn’t know any better. He came to office as an outsider, a naïf. He actually thought that Jim Mattis and Rex Tillerson were on his side. Imagine that. 

    He has been disabused of those sentiments, though who exactly he can rely on as allies remains an open question. Personnel will once again be a critical problem for Trump were he to reoccupy 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

    Here’s a bit of unsolicited advice that I have for the former president should he be elected again: Stay out of Washington as much as you can. Stop the newspapers. Have your mail forwarded.

    Washington really is a swamp and it will consume you. And here are a few particular bits of advice: 

    1) Have the inauguration in Mar-a-Lago.

    2) Govern from Florida as much as you can. 

    3) If you decide to indulge in the theater of the State of the Union Address as it has evolved, deliver it from, say, Kansas. 

    4) Disband the FBI. We should never have allowed a national police force to come into being. 

    Move the bits of the government you can’t actually destroy to other parts of the country.

    Do these things instantly—the day you take office. The deep state will howl. The bureaucrats will oppose you. The lawyers will sue you. Do it anyway. Act first, deal with the consequences later. 

    Conduct metaphorical dawn-raids on their people and institutions just as they weaponized the Justice Department against you and your supporters. That would not only be the retribution you seek, it would also be reciprocity. Speed and thoroughness will be of the essence. If you hesitate, if you are half-hearted, you will be lost.

    These are points I have made before. The focus should be on eclipsing Washington, D.C. as the seat of government. It has long been obvious to candid observers that there is something deeply dysfunctional about that overwhelmingly Democratic, welfare-addicted city. It is a partisan sinkhole. Jefferson wanted the capital moved from New York to Washington in part to bring it closer to the South, but also to place it somewhere that was officially neutral. There is nothing neutral about Washington today. The city has some impressive architecture and urban vistas. They should be preserved and staffed as tourist attractions. But the reins of power should be relocated.

    The more I think about our situation, the more I believe the only hope for the republic is to downgrade the place of Washington in our public life. The business of Washington is to make government bigger—forever. That is not what the people, who pay for it, want. Legitimacy is draining out of our governing institutions at an alarming rate. Stanching that debilitating flow requires that we redirect our attention away from the greedy puppet show in Washington to the true source of legitimacy, which is with the people.

    Trump is one of the few people with the temerity to attempt such a thing. Perhaps he can appease some of his critics by proposing we rename Washington to George Floyd City. I would be OK with that. In any event, the actual government of the country should be moved to some neutral ground, out of the overwhelmingly corrupt cesspool that is Washington.

    The other bit of Trump’s CPAC speech that I want to mention concerns NATO. Trump did not, as some commenters asserted, “muse about Russia blowing up the NATO headquarters.” Rather, he talked about the folly of NATO spending billions to construct a huge headquarters for itself. Would they not have been better advised to construct a hardened bunker? After all, Trump pointed out, Russia could destroy the shiny new headquarters with a single missile.

    Bill Kristol, seizing on the idea that Trump was musing about blowing up NATO headquarters, took to Twitter to make “the most obvious point: This man cannot be our next president.” Kristol was also aghast at Trump’s call for an “all-European NATO, with the United States as an ally but not a member.” “One of the problems with the involvement of the United States in NATO,” he said, “is that it dilutes the nationalist impulse.” Can you believe that? He actually praised “the nationalist impulse.” How Hitlerian can you get?

    Unfortunately for Bill Kristol, though, those last observations come not from Trump (though he would probably agree with them) but from someone else named Kristol: Irving Kristol, Bill’s father, who in 1983 wrote an essay called “What’s Wrong With NATO?” After the Soviet Union fell, Irving Kristol went on to express doubts about the future role for NATO in European politics altogether.

    If that seems surprising, it’s only because you have failed to appreciate just how long a week in politics can be.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 21:30

  • Joe Biden, Habitual Racialist Demagogue: VDH
    Joe Biden, Habitual Racialist Demagogue: VDH

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via RealClear Politics,

    The most recent liberal ABC News/Washington Post poll showed President Joe Biden’s approval rating at 36 percent – the lowest in history for a president at this point in his first term.

    Biden’s low popularity is no mystery.

    He inherited energy independence, affordable gas prices, historically low interest rates, low inflation, calm overseas, a low crime rate, and a largely closed border with legal-only immigration.

    And then Biden destroyed that inheritance.

    He has begged illiberal foreign governments to pump oil he refuses to drill domestically for.

    He spiked inflation at the highest rate in over 40 years.

    Home interest rates have skyrocketed from less than 3% to 7%.

    He nearly doubled the price of gasoline.

    His hare-brained retreat from Afghanistan marked the greatest humiliation of the American military in the last half-century.

    Kabul is now selling billions of dollars’ worth of abandoned American equipment to terrorists and anti-American regimes.

    After that fiasco, Biden foolhardily played down a possible “minor” Russia invasion of Ukraine. He implored Russia to exempt some American institutions from its cyber-attack target list.

    No wonder an empowered Russian President Vladimir Putin went into Ukraine.

    Biden’s family is corrupt from top to bottom.

    Its influence peddling schemes increasingly are targets of congressional investigations. Biden himself is explicitly mentioned by his son Hunter as the recipient of a 10% commission on monies the family syndicate leveraged from foreign interests.

    Biden promised “unity.” Instead, he habitually smears half the country as “semi-fascists” and “ultra-MAGA” extremists.

    Biden is cognitively challenged and often incoherent. And he is now losing support in the polls from African Americans, once his most loyal constituency.

    In response, Biden does what he has always done for some 40 years: mouth wild racist demagoguery.

    This graduation season, Biden deliberately chose Howard University to scare its Black graduates into believing the greatest threat to their aspirations is “white supremacy” – but that he, Biden, has been their protector in fighting it.

    Note the existential threats Biden deliberately omits.

    Tens of thousands of illegal immigrants are flooding over a border Biden deliberately destroyed. Millions of incoming poor will vie for limited federal and state support with Americans who are in need.

    Since Biden was elected, there have been nearly 7 million illegal entries.

    Some 100,000 Americans now die each year from Mexican-produced fentanyl and other opioids shipped across a wide-open border.

    Biden did not mention that nearly 10,000 African Americans are murdered each year, over 90% of them killed by other African Americans.

    Biden first should heal his own racism before he fabricates it in others.

    He fueled his early Senate career with homages to southern Democratic segregationists such as Senator James O. Eastland, D-Miss. Biden even bragged that Eastland “never called me ‘boy.'” Biden gave eulogies for former Dixiecrat Sen. Strom Thurmond and former Klansman Sen. Robert Byrd.

    Of school busing, a younger Senator Biden thundered, “My children are going to grow up in a jungle, the jungle being a racial jungle.”

    Biden in 2008 patronized former President Barack Obama in racist terms as “the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy.”

    In 2012, Biden condescended to a group of accomplished Black professionals that the Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, would “put y’all back in chains.”

    As a presidential candidate in 2020, he dismissed two Black journalists, respectively with the putdowns “you ain’t Black” and “junkie.”

    His fabricated “Corn Pop” he-man autobiographical tales are utterly racist.

    As president he has referred to two prominent people of color as “boy.” He still uses the term “Negro” to refer to Blacks.

    Biden never cites data to support his wild accusations that white supremacy poses the nation’s greatest threat.

    The 2020 riots, the lengthiest in our history, left up to 40 people dead, destroyed $2 billion in property, led to 14,000 arrests, spanned 120 days of mass looting, and arson, and saw mobs torching police precincts, federal courthouses, and an historic church.

    That violence was engineered by radicals in Antifa and Black Lives Matter.

    In the January 6 Capitol protests, the only person confirmed to have been killed at that event was an unarmed military veteran and Trump supporter, Ashli Babbitt. She was lethally shot by a Capitol police officer for the misdemeanor of attempting to enter through a broken window.

    If “white supremacy” is our “greatest” terrorist threat, surely crime statistics would reveal such an existential peril.

    Yet federal hate- and interracial-crime data show that so-called whites are considerably unrepresented demographically in such racially motivated violence.

    Far from galvanizing the public, Biden’s monotonous racial demagoguery is turning it off.

    The military suffers a vast drop in enlistments that began once Biden’s Pentagon brass, without evidence, likewise began demagoguing about supposed “white rage” in the ranks.

    Only 37% of independents in a recent poll now support Biden. Some 70% of the public in other polls opposes a second Biden run.

    So on spec, a panicked Biden now turns to what he has done for decades – inflammatory racial demagoguery.

    Victor Davis Hanson is the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and the author, most recently, of The Case for Trump. You can reach him by e-mailing author@victorhanson.com.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 21:00

  • "Not Our Beliefs" – Bud Light Distributor Sends Out Public Plea to Bring Back Customers
    “Not Our Beliefs” – Bud Light Distributor Sends Out Public Plea to Bring Back Customers

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

    A Bud Light distributor in Alabama issued a public plea to bring back customers who boycotted the brand after it produced a can with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney’s face.

    Steve Tatum, with the Montgomery-based Bama Budweiser distributor, deployed a radio advertisement for several area stations, pleading with customers to purchase Bud Light again.

    In April and during the first week of May, sales of Bud Light were down significantly, while sales of other Anheuser-Busch products also dropped amid the Mulvaney backlash.

    “We too at Bama Budweiser are upset about it and have made our feelings known to the top leadership at Anheuser-Busch,” Tatum said in the ad, according to multiple news reports.

    “The voice of the consumer has been heard, and Anheuser-Busch has taken action.”

    ‘#BudLightPartner’

    Like Anheuser-Busch’s leadership, Tatum also tried to distance Bud Light from Mulvaney, a biological male who had posted the custom-made Bud Light can and used a hashtag “#BudLightPartner” in early April, drawing significant ire from consumers and conservative celebrities. Several popular country singers, including Travis Tritt and John Rich, said they wouldn’t serve the beer, while Kid Rock posted a video of him shooting up cases of Bud Light.

    “We at Bama Budweiser, an independent wholesaler, employ around 100 people who live here, work here, and our children go to school here,” Tatum said in the ad.

    “We do not, and as I said before, did not support this issue involving Dylan Mulvaney. There was one single can made. It was not for sale and wasn’t properly approved. As a result, the Bud Light brand has new leadership.”

    Tatum added:

    “Dylan Mulvaney is not under contract with Bud Light. The videos you may have seen are Mulvaney’s own social media posts that went viral and many web-based news outlets have distorted the story. You deserve to know the truth, and life is too short to let a couple of individuals decide what you can eat or drink or spend your hard-earned money on. And remember, making friends is our business, not enemies.”

    Drop in Sales

    Latest industry data shows that Bud Light’s sales dropped in the first week of May, falling 23.6 percent in the week ending May 6, reported Beer Business Daily using Nielsen IQ data. In the final week of April, sales for the beer dropped 23.3 percent, the data show.

    “Trends aren’t getting much worse, but certainly not getting any better either,” Beer Business Daily wrote in a commentary on the figures.

    Tatum told AL.com that he’s received positive feedback for his ad campaign. However, he said that there has been no response from Anheuser-Busch or Bud Light corporate officials.

    “I’m just trying to look after Bama Budweiser,” he said. “I’ve worked too hard to give it all away.”

    The distributor added to Newsweek that “I felt like we had to get a message out there,” adding: “We are tied to a corporation, but that’s not necessarily our beliefs in our market here in Alabama.”

    Sales volumes for Anheuser-Busch products also dropped 9.7 percent for the first week in May, up from the 11.4 percent decline in late April, according to industry data. Anheuser-Busch, which has headquarters in the Netherlands, also makes Budweiser, Michelob, Stella Artois, and Beck’s, among other beers.

    ‘Misinformation and Confusion’

    Anheuser-Busch CEO Michel Doukeris told the Financial Times in a recent interview that his company believes the Bud Light boycott was triggered by “misinformation and confusion” circulating on social media and sought to distance his firm from Mulvaney. He said that Mulvaney wasn’t part of an official marketing campaign and that “one can” was produced with Mulvaney’s face.

    “It was one post. It was not an advertisement,” Doukeris told the outlet.

    He alleged viral videos of billboards with images of the Bud Light can with Mulvaney’s face on it inserted “electronically,” although he did not address why Mulvaney wrote the hashtag on social media suggesting a partnership.

    Initially, Anheuser-Busch USA CEO Brendan Whitworth released a statement that did not address the boycott or the Mulvaney partnership.

    The company “never intended to be part of a discussion that divides people,” he said in a statement, which was criticized by conservatives.

    In the meantime, Anheuser-Busch InBev had its stock downgraded recently by an HSBC analyst who said the firm is now dealing with a “Bud Light crisis” of sorts. There are “deeper problems” than Anheuser-Busch would like to admit publicly after its marketing engagement with the transgender influencer became a hot topic, the analyst said.

    ‘The Tide Has Turned’

    While some analysts and researchers say that boycotts of large corporations rarely work, a former Anheuser-Busch, Anson Frericks, said last week that the Bud Light one is actually working.

    “Now, the tide has turned. A poll conducted earlier this year shows that 68 percent of Americans think that companies that speak out on social issues do it as a marketing ploy,” he wrote.

    “And a study out earlier this month shows that Americans are much more likely to distrust institutions they view as politicized—even when they take political positions that align with their views. In today’s heated political environment, the surest course for companies—particularly those in high-visibility, competitive markets—is to focus on their brand and stay out of the debates.”

    The Epoch Times has contacted Anheuser-Busch multiple times for comment about the sales and controversy.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 20:30

  • "Isolated Event" Again? All Voters Of New York County Falsely Identified As Democrats In Voter IDs
    “Isolated Event” Again? All Voters Of New York County Falsely Identified As Democrats In Voter IDs

    Authored by Naveen Anthrapully via The Epoch Times,

    All voters of Nassau County, New York, were identified as Democrats on their voter ID cards irrespective of political affiliation due to a botch-up by a printing company, triggering accusations about “sabotaging elections” ahead of the upcoming primaries.

    The primaries are scheduled for June. Voters of the county, amounting to nearly a million, began to receive their voter ID cards on Tuesday, with voters supporting Republicans, Independents, or another political party surprised to see themselves identified as Democrats in the cards, according to NBC. “We’re already starting to get phone calls from people, saying ‘I’m a registered Republican, I’m a registered Conservative—how come I’m being identified as a Democrat? Who changed my registration?’ And they’re quite upset about it,” said Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.

    “There’s a lot of confusion, there’s a lot of people emotionally upset about this,” he added. Blakeman, a Republican, is pinning the blame on Rochester-based Phoenix Graphics, the printing company hired by Nassau County’s Board of Elections to print the voter ID cards.

    The printing company called it an “isolated event” that was the result of a human error. “We apologize for our mistake, especially to Nassau County officials, who bear no responsibility for this problem.”

    However, this is not the first time that Phoenix Graphics has committed such a mistake. In 2020, Phoenix messed up absentee ballots for 99,000 voters in Brooklyn. The printing firm had erroneously sent mailings to voters containing return envelopes having the names and addresses of other people.

    The campaign for Kari Lake (R-Ariz.), who is running for the post of Arizona Governor, slammed the incident.

    “A ‘printing error’ in Nassau County, N.Y. led to every voter in that county being listed as a Democrat. There’s that word again. ‘Printer error.’ This is just their blanket excuse for sabotaging elections and hoping nobody calls them on it,” the campaign said in a May 21 tweet.

    Since New York is a closed primary state, voters registered as belonging to a party are not allowed to vote for any other party. As such, if a GOP supporter is identified as Democrat in the voter registration system, the individual would be barred from casting votes for the Republican primary.

    Trust in Elections

    Out of the 972,000 voters in the county, Democrats account for around 40 percent. At a press conference, Blakeman ruled out partisanship as a cause for the mishap and said that the county is investigating the matter.

    “I don’t think the Democratic Party is engaged in a conspiracy to create havoc in their own primaries. I don’t think the Democratic Party wants a bunch of Republicans showing up to vote in their primaries,” said Blakeman, according to the New York Post.

    However, some voters are now questioning the election process due to the typo error. “I have no faith in this country today, as far as what the politics are,” said George Klein, a voter from Nassau. “I’m going to vote Republican primary day, and Democrat on that is not going to affect it,” he said referring to the erroneous ID card he received.

    During the 2022 midterms, only 56 percent of Republicans thought the elections will be administered “very” or “somewhat” well, according to Pew Research.

    Accurate Voter ID Cards

    According to Phoenix Graphics, they are correcting the error and will send out new and accurate voter ID cards soon without any additional cost to taxpayers.

    Democratic County Election Commissioner Jim Scheuerman told the New York Post that Phoenix will be paying around $300,000 required to resend the correct registration cards to the county’s voters.

    Phoenix was contracted more than ten years ago via a sealed-bid process. Officials with Nassau County’s Board of Elections are reportedly not ruling out considering other vendors to ensure that the recent mistake doesn’t occur again, according to Fox.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 19:30

  • Crypto Calm Before The Smile
    Crypto Calm Before The Smile

    By Marcel Kasumovich and Kartikey Sinha of One River Asset Management

    1. Adapt or die. It’s clever, even if overused. The finite nature of life is what makes it so precious. Embracing adaptation over comfort, the joy of the struggle. Hundreds of brainy quotes are at your fingertips to give credibility to the mantra. Maya Angelou is my mom’s personal favorite: “If you don’t like something, change it. If you can’t change it, change your attitude.” There is no try in adaptation – you either do or you don’t. Crypto asset markets choose “do.”

    2. Adaption is evident in natural cycles, naturally. Biodiverse ecosystems strengthen the resilience of cycles. Of course, the same is true of economic systems and financial markets. But our instincts are to resist. Intervening to stop forest fires that are disruptive to homes that probably shouldn’t be there. Intervening to guard against losses of banks that probably shouldn’t exist. Intervention leans against natural cycles, lessens diversity, and weakens resilience.

    3. Intervention requires great humility. We don’t know what we don’t know. Yet, intervention is often executed with a force of certainty. If banks were not bailed out, we were certain to enter a Great Depression. The unintended consequence of intervention must be less than the social strains of soup kitchens in Central Park. Intervention centralizes debt to government balance sheets, leaving rich countries with unsustainable obligations. It brings generational fragility.

    4. The crypto asset ecosystem stands in sharp contrast. It demands adaptive resilience. Take US dollar stablecoin. Total assets are roughly $130 billion today, on par with October 2021. Dollars chose to stay in the digital ecosystem despite a sharp rise in US interest rates, a crash in crypto asset markets, and the annihilation of poorly designed stablecoin. Resilience. Then, strains in the US banking system led to a rapid shift of stablecoin to USDT and away from USDC, raising Tether’s share to 46% of the Ethereum stablecoin supply. Adaptation.

    5. Why has US dollar stablecoin been so durable? Its velocity demonstrates it is well designed and useful. A total of $1,952 billion stablecoin transactions settled on the Ethereum blockchain in the first quarter. Ethereum US dollar stablecoin assets averaged $95 billion over the same period. So, the entire stock of stablecoin turned over 20 times in the quarter, or roughly once every 4-5 days. And that doesn’t include off-chain transactions. It makes USD stablecoin the most efficient collateral in the global financial system. Bank runs are for banks.

    6. Now, resilience also changes the nature of cycles. We know that cycles of the weather are simply defined – hot in the summer, cold in the winter. But the amplitudes and timing are highly nonlinear. No two cycles are the same. Crypto asset prices and activity have surged this year. Bitcoin was up more than 80% at its peak this year, transaction volumes have leapt to record levels, and bitcoin mining fees have garnered the third-highest share of revenue in its history. Historically, these would be signs of excess.

    7. But derivative markets are clearly not flashing red. On the contrary, the signals are remarkably bland. Bitcoin’s three-month volatility expectation is near historic lows at 47%, the skew in option markets is neutral, and the cost of futures leverage is near-zero versus more than 10% annualized during past periods of rapid price gains. Surprised? It’s the benefit of no intervention and increased resilience. Last cycle’s crypto crash is bringing far more discipline to the current cycle.

    8. It got us thinking – the “Royal us” in this case, including Kartikey, a member of our Digital Labs. How does bitcoin’s price and volatility adjust to the demand for leverage?

    We take funding rates implied by the bitcoin perpetual futures from 2018-2022, partition them into percentile ranges, and then evaluate bitcoin’s volatility. Figure 1 shows a happy smile relationship, a dream for risk managing a portfolio.

    There’s information content on both extremes – risk rises when the cost of leverage is extremely low and extremely high, in the boom and bust respectively.

    9 . The same smile emerges with the absolute move in bitcoin price returns across different stages of the leverage cycle from 2018 to 2022 (Figure 2). But the return profile is more of a jump in the extremes.

    When bitcoin funding rates are in the 0-10 percentile range, the average daily bitcoin return is (1.02%), roughly seven-times the sample average. On the other extreme in the 90-100 percentile range, bitcoin’s average daily return is 2.11%. Outside of those extremes are long phases of calm, like the current one.

    10. The resilience of digital asset markets ensures the previous cycle won’t be repeated. A surge in economic transactions can occur without speculative excess – we’ve already seen it this year. This is encouraging for developers as price signals are more valuable when not polluted by excess speculation. A virtuous cycle emerges. But we can’t extrapolate the calm. Extremes can be identified by funding rates and volatility markets – analytics when integrated to systematic strategies will leave any crypto asset manager smiling, just like bitcoin’s volatility curve.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 19:00

  • Despite Denials, Experts Say Fentanyl-Laced Marijuana Is A Growing Problem
    Despite Denials, Experts Say Fentanyl-Laced Marijuana Is A Growing Problem

    Authored by Katie Spence via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Twenty-one states, plus the District of Columbia, have legalized recreational marijuana for adults as of April 2023. And while marijuana is still illegal at the federal level, 88 percent of adults think it should be legalized for medical and recreational use, according to an October 2022 Pew Research Center survey—a significant increase from 1999’s 31 percent.

    Cannabis plants grow inside of Thrive Cannabis’ production facility in Simcoe, Ontario, on April 13, 2021. (The Canadian Press/Tara Walton)

    Additionally, 55 million Americans currently use marijuana, and 45 percent of the population has tried it at least once, according to the National Center for Drug Abuse Statistics.

    But as attitudes and state laws change regarding marijuana—and its use increases—reports of marijuana laced with substances like the synthetic opioid fentanyl, are also increasing.

    “One of the trends that we saw secondary to the pandemic was individuals stopped reporting opioid use as their primary drug of choice, and it seems to be replaced with marijuana and methamphetamine,” Teresa Russell, the director of criminal justice outreach in Dayton, Ohio, told The Epoch Times. Russell works between the county jail and community health and treatment facilities.

    Russell explained that when someone is booked into the jail and needs to detox, they’re asked about drugs they’ve taken and must take a urine drug screen. Russell said it’s becoming increasingly common for someone to say they’ve only used marijuana but then pop positive for fentanyl.

    Teresa Russell, treatment coordinator at the Montgomery County jail, in Dayton, Ohio, on Oct. 30, 2019. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

    “They genuinely don’t know that [opioids are] in there,” Russell said. “They have no idea what’s actually being put inside their substances. That’s an ongoing trend of what we’re seeing.”

    When explicitly asked if marijuana is being laced with fentanyl and showing up on drug screens, Russell confirmed that’s what she’s seeing.

    “We hear that not just from my team here in the jail from our intake screens, but we’re hearing that from our outreach partners.”

    NORML, a nonprofit public-interest advocacy group pushing for the legalization of marijuana, is quick to downplay the issue of fentanyl-laced marijuana.

    “Rarely a week goes by without police or other public officials warning about so-called ‘fentanyl-laced’ weed. Upon closer inspection, however, there’s little if any truth behind these sensational claims,” NORML says on its site.

    “It’s controversial,” Russell said of fentanyl-laced marijuana, “But I have urine drug screens that show it.”

    Russell isn’t the only one sounding the alarm on what she believes is a growing issue.

    Cases

    On Feb. 10, two students at North Mac High School in Illinois, were found to be in possession and under the influence of marijuana, and two field tests administered by the Virden Police Department found that the marijuana was positive for fentanyl.

    Kyle Hacke, the superintendent of North Mac, said in a statement, “We are fairly certain our students did not know they were ingesting fentanyl. Fentanyl-laced drugs … continue to show up in small communities like ours nationwide. We implore you to speak with your children and take necessary steps to combat this danger.”

    On Nov. 17, 2022, police in Leeds, Alabama, charged Jose Ingnacio Medina-Estrada with murder after he allegedly sold marijuana that was laced with fentanyl. The buyer—who believed he was only purchasing marijuana according to LPD Chief Paul Irwin—immediately died as a result.

    “This needs to serve as a notice to all individuals who are purchasing drugs. Drugs can take your life immediately or will control you and eventually destroy your life and everything you care about,” Irwin said.

    Fentanyl, firearms, and cash confiscated by DEA Los Angeles. (Courtesy of DEA Los Angeles)

    On Oct. 20, 2022, the Summerville Police Department in South Carolina released a statement via Facebook that read, “The Summerville Police Department has seized Marijuana that has tested presumptive for Amphetamines and Fentanyl. The laced Marijuana was seized during two apparent drug overdose investigations and it is possible the laced Marijuana played a factor in the overdoses. We are asking the community to stay safe and to be careful.”

    On Nov. 18, 2021, the Connecticut State Department of Public Health (DPH) issued a press release that stated there were 39 overdose incidents involving fentanyl-laced weed in 2021. However, upon further forensic analysis, only one of those cases could be confirmed to involve fentanyl-laced marijuana.

    In its dismissal of fentanyl-laced marijuana, NORML points to the Connecticut case, and the forensic analysis. However, the article NORML cites also states: “Chris Boyle, a spokesperson for DPH, said a full analysis has now revealed at least 30 of the 39 overdoses were among patients with histories of opioid use.

    “Anything bought off the street, including cannabis, has the potential to contain other substances, one of those being fentanyl,’ Boyle told the media. “CT DPH has documented evidence, from not just the State Police Forensics Lab, but from the DEA lab as verification of the seized drug sample, that cannabis was contaminated with fentanyl.’”

    Increasing Prevalence

    According to the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), fentanyl is a synthetic opioid that’s primarily manufactured in countries like China and then smuggled into the United States via Mexico.

    “Fentanyl is being mixed in with other illicit drugs to increase the potency of the drug, sold as powders and nasal sprays, and increasingly pressed into pills made to look like legitimate prescription opioids,” the DEA states.

    “There is significant risk that illegal drugs have been intentionally contaminated with fentanyl.”

    That’s something Howard Barker, the Director of Community Relations at New Life House, a sober living program for men in California, is seeing firsthand. Barker told The Epoch Times that he’s seeing a trend with fentanyl-laced marijuana that he first witnessed with cocaine.

    “I remember the first few times years ago that we started seeing overdoses happen with things like cocaine, and fentanyl was cut into things like cocaine, and we’re like, ‘There’s no way. Why would you ever put fentanyl in cocaine?’

    “I have been doing this professionally for over a decade, and I didn’t believe it. I said, ‘That doesn’t even make sense logically.’ You know, if a user is going to get cocaine and go up, the last thing they want to do is go down.

    “It’s similar with cannabis. If you have someone going for cannabis, and they’re hoping to smoke weed, the last thing they want to do is use one of the most potent opiates on the planet. But that’s what’s happening.”

    Cannabis samples at Calalyst Cannabis in Santa Ana, Calif., on Feb. 18, 2021. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    “Dealers have found that because of how addictive fentanyl is, and how potent it is, they start putting it in these other substances, and it’s very, very cheap to do, and they’re able to one, get more bang for their buck, two, potentially hook users, and three, [dealers] find themselves in a position where the folks that like it are coming back for more.”

    Barker added that while the majority of street dealers aren’t cutting marijuana with fentanyl, it’s still a growing problem.

    “The problem with fentanyl is that it’s really Russian Roulette,” he said.

    “So even if the majority of the time you’re buying weed on the streets you’re not getting weed laced with fentanyl, if there’s even that small chance that it could happen—and you happen to be the person that gets it—the old scary horror stories about drug abuse, ‘you do it one time, and you’re gonna die,’ that didn’t really use to be true 20 years ago, unfortunately, those cliches have become true.”

    In addition to New Life House, recovery centers nationwide are trying to raise awareness about the growing prevalence of fentanyl-laced weed.

    “Authorities around the country are responding to opioid overdoses daily, and fentanyl is increasingly being found in counterfeit prescription opioid pills, meth, and cocaine. Now, that’s extended to marijuana,” The Recovery Village warns.

    “Although marijuana is probably less likely to be intentionally laced with other psychoactive substances than many other illicit drugs, this situation does occur. It is more likely to occur in cases where individuals who are selling a drug illicitly are attempting to bulk up the product and get more profits or when very low-quality cannabis is laced with some other drug to enhance its psychoactive effects,” the American Addiction Centers states.

    First Drug

    Barker, who’s been in recovery for years and previously voted to legalize marijuana, believes Americans were lied to regarding marijuana.

    “We were really lied to as a society,” Barker said. “And that’s why this stuff has just been pushed through time and time again, state by state by state, without resistance. And now we’re seeing that there’s just a lot of unintended consequences that nobody was aware of. Whether we were deliberately misinformed or whether we just didn’t have the data. But now that the data has come out, we’ve chosen not to act because there’s too much money behind [legalizing marijuana].”

    Joints in the 1970s had 1–3 mg of THC—the psychoactive component in marijuana—and a near equal amount of CBD—which is touted for its potential in treating seizures. Most joints in Colorado today contain 18–25 mg THC, with much less CBD. (David McNew/Getty Images)

    Barker added, “Regardless of what the mainstream media will tell you, cannabis is a gateway drug. I have tremendous amounts of anecdotal evidence from being in this industry for a long time to support that. Talk to anyone with substance abuse issues and ask them what the first substance they used that kind of broke down the taboos and exposed them to that world, and 99.99 percent of them are going to say cannabis.”

    For the 12-month period that ended in October 2022, the FDA reported more than 101,750 fatal overdoses in the United States, many due to illicit fentanyl.

    The DEA didn’t respond to The Epoch Times’ multiple requests for comment about the prevalence of fentanyl-laced marijuana.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 18:30

  • China Bans Micron As Supplier Over 'Major National Security Risk'
    China Bans Micron As Supplier Over ‘Major National Security Risk’

    In retaliation over a sweeping US ban on selling advanced chip-making technology to China, Beijing is now banning major Chinese firms from doing business with Micron Technology, claiming that its products pose a ‘major national-security risk,’ the Wall Street Journal reports.

    On Sunday, the Cyberspace Administration of China said that Micron failed a national security review, and that its products contain “significant security risks” that would affect national security. The agency has warned operators of key Chinese information infrastructure (telecom firms and state-owned banks in particular) against purchasing Micron products.

    “We are evaluating the conclusion and assessing our next steps,” Micron told the Journal. “We look forward to continuing to engage in discussions with Chinese authorities.”

    The Chinese ban came less than two months after Beijing announced an investigation on imports from Micron, the largest memory-chip maker in the U.S., in what seemed a political gesture aimed at hitting back at a sweeping ban Washington put in place late last year on selling advanced chip-making technology to China. 

    Chinese officials believe certain American companies lobbied the Biden administration to institute the ban. The Micron probe suggested Beijing zeroed in on Micron as a particular target. It also comes as China has broadly ratcheted up pressure on foreign businesses in a bid to fortify its economy from foreign influence. -WSJ

    According to Lester Ross, a Beijing-based lawyer at WilmerHale which advises US companies doing business in China, the impact could be broader than initially thought.

    “Other domestic customers may also consider this to be a political signal to stop buying, and even replace, their products,” he said.

    The action against Micron follows Beijing’s condemnation of a recent statement issued by President Joe Biden and the leaders of six other countries which have pledged to take action against the transfer of sensitive technology to China, and to protect nations from what they’ve characterized as Chinese intimidation tactics.

    China, meanwhile, called the Group of Seven as fostering “Western rules” that lack international credibility.

    According to anonymous Chinese officials, Beijing is pondering whether to send Commerce Minister Wang Wentao to Washington DC to meet with his US counterpart, instead of sending him to Detroit for a meeting of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation trade ministers.

    “Such a bilateral meeting must be conducted on the basis of mutual respect,” said one of the officials.

    On Sunday, Biden told reporters after the G-7 meeting that the US wants to open more lines of communication with China. “Then this silly balloon that was carrying two freight cars worth of spy equipment was flying over the United States and it got shot down and everything changed in terms of talking to one another,” he said. “I think you’re going to see that begin to thaw very shortly.”

    China has been looking for ways to retaliate against intensified U.S. sanctions against Chinese companies. It has held back its required green light for mergers that involve American companies such as Intel as the U.S.-China technology war intensifies.

    But Chinese officials have also been wary of punching too hard as to further limit Chinese companies’ access to advanced Western technology.

    Micron represents an easy target for Beijing because Chinese companies can easily switch out its products for those made by competitors such as Samsung and SK Hynix, according to analysts and Western business executives who have consulted with Chinese authorities. -WSJ

    Approximately 10% of Micron revenue comes from China, according to Gavekal Dragonomics.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 18:00

  • The End Game For The Debt Ceiling
    The End Game For The Debt Ceiling

    By Howard Wang of Convoy Investments

    The US debt ceiling crisis

    Currently there is considerable political tension and bickering surrounding the US debt ceiling, resembling the dinner table dynamics of a financially troubled and debt laden family. Over the past few years, I have frequently discussed the escalating US sovereign debt level due to its growing significance in shaping politics, economics, and markets. Struggles like the ongoing debt ceiling issue are likely to become a regular part of our society.

    In this letter, I provide context regarding the current debt ceiling impasse, which I believe will have limited short-term impact. More importantly, I delve into the long-term outlook on US debt, discuss some potential solutions to address this issue, and examine the implications for markets and the economy.

    Near-term impact of the debt ceiling

    While the current round of debt ceiling talks make for good political theatrics, it is unlikely to have substantial practical ramifications on the economy. In the short term, the market anticipates that the US government will likely resolve this crisis. Market indicators suggest a low 1% per year probability of default on US debt over the next five years, slightly higher than during the 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling crises

    Markets expect the debt ceiling to be raised without significant practical consequences. The impasse has had minimal impact on US borrowing costs, which have continued to slowly trend down since the end of last year in line with inflation.

    Additionally, the US stock market maintains its upward trajectory in 2023.

    The relatively benign outlook is likely due to fact that the underlying economics of the US budget were greatly improved by the pandemic, which allowed the US to secure low financing rates while printing money to generate inflation, and boost GDP growth and federal tax income. However, as indicated by the following chart, this positive trajectory is rapidly deteriorating due to rising interest rates, a return to more normal levels of inflation, and a slowing economy.

    This pattern is also evident when considering the total debt level as a percentage of GDP. After the initial spike caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the ratio steadily declined but is now on the rise once again.

    I largely agree with market sentiment that the current debt ceiling does not pose a significant immediate threat. However, I believe we are approaching a critical juncture where mounting debt levels, increasing financing costs, a slowing economy, and an expanding government footprint could compound and create an exponential problem.

    What is the end game of continuously increasing the debt ceiling?

    As the US has the ability to print its own money, the debt ceiling can be repeatedly raised for the time being. One key metric for assessing the sustainability is the cost of servicing debt as a percentage of the US federal government’s income (taxes). This is analogous to examining the monthly payments compared to income when determining whether one can afford a house. Let’s consider the rough math:

    The current debt stands at approximately 125% of GDP. At the current 4% treasury rate, debt servicing costs would amount to 5% of GDP per year once the 4% cost extends to all maturities, which will take some time.

    The federal government collects 15-20% of GDP as tax revenue, a consistent figure since World War II.

    This means that 25-33% of federal income would go toward debt servicing, which is high but still manageable. For instance, at the personal level, the recommended threshold for housing mortgage payment is typically 30% of income.

    Presently, this ratio is actually a bit lower, at around 20% of federal income. Much of the existing debt carries lower interest rates locked in from the last few decades. However, this ratio will rise rapidly as we retire older, cheaper debt and replace it with more expensive new debt. The following chart illustrates the portion of federal income allocated to debt servicing. We are already experiencing the rapid upward swing.

    This ratio would deteriorate further if total debt levels increase or if market financing costs rise. For example, at 200% of GDP and a 4% financing cost, interest payments would consume nearly half of federal income. Alternatively, if interest rates were to suddenly rise faster than our GDP growth rate, the total cost of rolling and raising new debt would increase. Either scenario could initiate a downward spiral toward a debt crisis, where the federal government needs to do substantial borrowing to service existing debt, all the while facing higher cost of financing due to the deteriorating balance sheet.

    So, how significant is the debt problem we must address? The current debt ceiling stands at $31.4 trillion. According to projections from the US Congress, we will need to issue an additional $130 trillion over the next 30 years, projected to reach around 200% of GDP.

    Issuing and managing $130 trillion in debt will pose the most substantial financial challenge for the next generation of Americans. Debt levels have now reached a point where they significantly impact politics, the economy, and financial markets. Gone are the days when Congress, the Treasury, and the Federal Reserve could operate relatively independently. We are already witnessing conflicts in managing objectives such as inflation, financial stability, recession, and the debt ceiling. These conflicts will only worsen. For instance, I believe the Federal Reserve will gradually shift its focus from managing inflation to assisting the Treasury department in managing national debt, albeit discreetly.

    Debt has become pervasive, affecting nearly every aspect of our economy and government. The following chart  provides a rough illustration of the interconnectedness that previously existed as more independent components.

    So how do we deal with the debt?

    The following are some of the levers that will determine whether we handle the debt issue in a healthy manner
    or allow it to spiral out of control. With the exception of the last lever, all the proposed solutions have painful
    side effects

    1) Maintain higher inflation than interest rates

    This approach would increase GDP income faster than interest rate costs, boosting income relative to debt. For example, post-Covid inflation has greatly benefited the US government’s budget as prices and income grew far faster than the cost of debt.

    However, higher inflation often comes with higher borrowing costs and other economic challenges, as we have recently experienced. Therefore, we cannot rely solely on inflating away the debt. Instead, I expect the Federal Reserve to maintain steady moderate inflation slightly higher than their 2% target, likely around that of 10-year treasury rates (around 3-4%).

    2) Decrease the value of the dollar

    Lowering the value of the dollar is similar to generating domestic inflation in foreign exchange terms. This approach would enhance US competitiveness, reduce trade deficits, and increase GDP. Following a significant surge during Covid, the dollar has begun to depreciate, and I anticipate that the Federal Reserve will encourage a gradual decline in its value.

    On the flip side, it is crucial to manage the dollar carefully since its stability has played a significant role in its status as the reserve currency, affording numerous benefits to the US. Additionally, as the dollar weakens, the US will experience imported inflation, which will gradually erode the average American’s standard of living. This cure will not come without painful side effects.

    3) Use quantitative easing to keep borrowing costs artificially low

    This has the obvious benefit of allowing the US to manage its own borrowing costs and to lock in longer term debt when long rates are appropriately low. Simultaneously, lower interest rates encourage shor-tterm growth, further boosting federal income. This strategy worked exceedingly well in the 2010s.

    This strategy enables the US to manage its borrowing costs and secure long-term debt when long-term rates are suitably low. Simultaneously, lower interest rates stimulated short-term growth, further increasing federal income. This approach proved highly effective during the 2010s. However, it is worth noting that since the US government would essentially be purchasing its own bonds, there are limitations to this strategy. After all, the Federal Reserve cannot own the entire market. Since Covid, the Federal Reserve has held approximately 30% of all US debt.

    I suspect this figure could be increased if necessary. Nevertheless, this strategy must be employed strategically as there are limitations. Carefully managing the financing costs is crucial because of its significant impact on the future of our federal balance sheet. A mere 1% change in financing rates can drastically alter the trajectory of our budget, as shown below in the projections from the congressional budget office.

    4) Increase taxes

    Raising taxes on a given size of GDP would augment federal tax income. Historically, the US government has collected roughly 15-20% of GDP as tax revenue since World War II.

    Increasing taxes will create economic pain and face much political resistance, but may become necessary if the debt situation becomes dire enough. So we should anticipate potential increases in income taxes, wealth taxes, estate taxes, property taxes, and tariffs.

    5) Reduce government spending

    Reducing government spending is challenging since, aside from spikes and drops during wartime and times like the Covid pandemic, the size of our government has consistently expanded. As our country ages and programs like Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid become more expensive, we can expect government spending to continue growing.

    Implementing any cuts will be painful and face considerable political resistance. However, we may find ourselves with no choice but to tighten our belts, so we should prepare for potential reductions in discretionary spending in the future, along with associated economic pains.

    6) Related to above, semi-defaults on certain obligations like social security

    I anticipate that we may witness soft defaults on mandatory spending, such as scaling back on Social Security. For instance, the Social Security Trust Fund is projected to deplete within the next ten years due to deficits.

    Consequently, the program is anticipated to accumulate massive annual deficits, reaching up to $9 trillion per year by 2090, exacerbating the existing US debt issues.

    It is highly likely that the next generation of US retirees will not receive the Social Security benefits promised to them.

    7) Increase real GDP

    This is by far the most desirable solution, as it entails no downsides. It is also how the US managed to overcome its World War II debts. The success of this approach largely hinges on the US’s ability to maintain leadership in cutting-edge fields like AI. The provided chart showcases the long-term evolution of the US stock market as a proxy to the US economy. US stock market capitalization as % of the world experienced continuous growth from 1900 to 1970 as the US emerged as the world superpower after the two World Wars. Subsequently, the rest of the world rebuilt and advanced, with countries like Japan rising to prominence and taking away global share. Since 1990, the US has once again regained global market share, largely on the back of technological advancements.

    I remain optimistic about the future of the US economy, primarily due to the massive leverage potential in technology, which tends to be a winner-takes-all industry. The head start and ecosystem that the US has cultivated in fields like AI provide our greatest hope for addressing our government’s precarious finances.

    I believe that US debt will pose a significant problem requiring a combination of all seven levers to resolve. The more we can rely on the last lever of real economic growth, the less painful the process will be. I believe the US will grapple with substantial debt issues while simultaneously serving as a beacon of global growth and innovation.

    From an investment standpoint, I expect high volatility, characterized by both extreme highs and lows. Diversification of currencies and assets will be crucial, especially as central banks are forced to become more prominent players in the market, resulting in more black swan events. However, I believe maintaining exposure to US equities, particularly in technology sectors at reasonable valuations, will be key to long-term success.

    Because of my expectation of higher-than-anticipated inflation, I think it is important to hedge against inflation directly through commodities, TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities), and a small allocation to gold or cryptocurrencies if you believe in the long-term potential of that asset class. Specifically, switching to TIPS early on is recommended due to its relatively small market size compared to nominal bonds, which I hold a bearish view on in the long term. I believe gone are the days of the traditional 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. You’ll like need a 60/40 portfolio of stocks and inflation hedge assets.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 17:30

  • Irony? Guess Which Nation Produces The World's Most Honey
    Irony? Guess Which Nation Produces The World’s Most Honey

    China is not only the country in the world producing the most honey, but it also leads in revenue per capita generated with one of nature’s oldest and most widely used sweeteners.

    As Statista’s Florain Zandt reports, according to calculations based on Statista Market Insights and World Bank population data, China’s honey industry made $17 per inhabitant of the country in 2021. Two of the other spots in the top 8 are claimed by Asian countries as well.

    Infographic: Making Money With Honey | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    As Statista’s chart shows, Indonesia and Vietnam come in sixth and seventh with a per-capita revenue of $6.5 and $6.0, respectively. This reflects the importance of Asian markets for global honey production. In 2021, almost half of the world’s honey came out of countries from this geographic region. Other important honey markets include Canada, North Macedonia and Switzerland.

    Honey from Asia, especially China, has been the subject of intense scrutiny by market watchdogs in recent years. India, a country traditionally opposed to many of China’s endeavors in politics and business, is increasingly focused on uncovering the amount of honey exported from the People’s Republic allegedly cut with cheaper and lower-quality syrup.

    Looking at the total market value of sweeteners worldwide, honey had a share of 28 percent of the total global revenue of $145 billion.

    While artificial sweeteners like saccharin or stevia contributed $21.7 billion, sugar was responsible for $82.3 billion.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 17:00

  • Bill Gates 'Blackmailed' By Jeffrey Epstein Over Affair With Russian Bridge Player
    Bill Gates ‘Blackmailed’ By Jeffrey Epstein Over Affair With Russian Bridge Player

    Remember when Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said he ‘only had dinner’ with Jeffrey Epstein?

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Turns out (ok, we’ve known for a while) that’s a total lie – as the two also had a Russian bridge player in common, Mila Antonova.

    Mila Antonova, screenshot (YouTube)

    According to the Wall Street Journal, Gates met Antonova in 2010 at a bridge competition, leading to an affair. Three years later, after Gates associate Boris Nikolic referred her to Jeffrey Epstein to help raise $500K for an online bridge business which failed to pan out, Epstein paid for her to attend coding classes.

    In 2014, Antonova “stayed briefly at an apartment in New York City provided by Epstein” but claims not to have met with the guy who paid for her education.

    Then in 2017, the pedophile financier allegedly blackmailed Gates over the affair – demanding in an email that the Microsoft co-founder to reimburse him for Antonova’s education. Given the de minimis amount involved for both men, Gates interpreted this 2017 email as threat to expose his 2010 affair.

    So, poor boner-killer Bill was actually an Epstein victim all along, you see, and everyone interviewed for the report says they knew nothing about Epstein’s pedophile sex-trafficking operation and was ‘disgusted with what he did,’ etc.

    Jes Staley, Lawrence Summers, Jeffrey Epstein, Bill Gates, Boris Nikolic

    But in March of 2013, long before the two had thrown out their BFF bracelets, they were hanging out at the house of Thorbjørn Jagland, then chair of the Nobel Peace Prize committee where the pair allegedly discussed ” the security situation in Afghanistan as part of Mr. Gates’ work on polio eradication,” according to a spokeswoman for the billionaire. We’re sure.

    While he was working on the charitable fund, Epstein met in 2013 with Gates and Norwegian officials who were visitors to Epstein’s townhouse. Epstein told one former Gates Foundation employee that he knew the Norwegians, and could help Gates win a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to eradicate polio.

    Here’s what else is contained in the report (some known, some unknown).

    • “Starting in 2011, Gates had more than a half dozen meetings scheduled with Epstein, including dinners at Epstein’s New York townhouse, documents show. “
    • Gates flew on Epstein’s ‘lolita express’ plane from New Jersey to Florida in March, 2013. “That same month the two men met in France with an official on the Nobel Peace Prize committee.” (that official being its chair, Thorbjørn Jagland)

    While he was working on the charitable fund, Epstein met in 2013 with Gates and Norwegian officials who were visitors to Epstein’s townhouse. Epstein told one former Gates Foundation employee that he knew the Norwegians, and could help Gates win a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to eradicate polio.

    • In 2012, Epstein pitched Gates on a failed investment in a multibillion-dollar, JPMorgan-run charitable fund with a minimum contribution of $100 million.

    The deal went sideways. In messages to Jes Staley and Mary Erdoes, Epstein essentially coached the JPMorgan execs on how to pitch the fund to Gates’ team.

    “In essence this [fund] will allow Bill to have access to higher quality people , investment , allocation , governance without upsetting either his marriage or the sensitvites of the current foundation employees,” Epstein wrote on Aug. 16, 2011.

    The next day, Epstein wrote: “Bill is terribly frustrated. He woud! like to boost some of the things that are working without taking away from thoses that are not.”

    Six weeks later on Oct. 2, Epstein sent another email to Staley and Erdoes criticizing a JPMorgan presentation. “the presentation , is not tailored to bill.. He is the only person , the only one, that counts.”

    The charitable fund never got off the ground. “The firm didn’t need him as a client,” a JPMorgan spokesman said of Epstein. “The firm didn’t need him for introductions. Knowing what we know today, we wish we had never done business with him.” A spokesman for the bank said Erdoes declined to comment. A lawyer for Staley, who is no longer at JPMorgan, didn’t respond to a request for comment. Staley has previously said he regrets his friendship with Epstein. -WSJ

    But – given that this deal fell through in 2012 or so, and the two were hobnobbing at the Nobel Peace Price Committee Chairman’s house in 2013, it’s obvious that the two mended fences and moved on.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 16:00

  • FDA Advisers Back Maternal RSV Vaccine As Pfizer Says Safety Concerns Can Be Studied Post-Approval
    FDA Advisers Back Maternal RSV Vaccine As Pfizer Says Safety Concerns Can Be Studied Post-Approval

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Advisers to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) voiced support on May 18 for Pfizer’s maternal RSV vaccine even after several expressed concerns over premature births.

    A person walks past a Pfizer logo in the Manhattan borough of New York on April 1, 2021. (Carlo Allegri/Reuters)

    Outside experts on the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee unanimously said data from two trials run by Pfizer were sufficient to support the vaccine being effective at preventing RSV disease in infants. They also voted 10–4 in the affirmative when asked if the data from the trials were sufficient to demonstrate the safety of the vaccine.

    The votes set up FDA clearance for what would be the first maternal vaccine for the respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV.

    Pfizer’s vaccine, a recombinant protein subunit shot, targets the RSV A and RSV B subgroups in a 120 microgram dose that would be given to pregnant women in the second or third trimester. The goal would be to relay antibodies against RSV to fetuses, conferring protection that is supposed to last through the first year of life.

    The vaccine was 81.8 percent efficacious through 90 days after birth against severe lower respiratory tract illness due to RSV. The efficacy dropped to 69.4 percent after another 90 days.

    For any RSV-positive medically attended lower respiratory tract illness, the vaccine started at 57.1 percent efficacy and dropped to 51.3 percent over the same timeframe, according to data from a phase 3 trial that included about 3,500 vaccinated pregnant women.

    The efficacy for medically attended lower respiratory tract illness from any cause was just 2.5 percent at 180 days and 5.1 percent at 360 days.

    FDA staffers said in a briefing document that the trial showed “successful vaccine efficacy,” and the advisers seconded that view with their unanimous vote.

    But multiple experts expressed concerns about the risk of the vaccine causing premature births, a risk found in a similar product made by GlaxoSmithKline that prompted the company to halt testing in 2022.

    In Pfizer’s trial, there were more premature deliveries in the vaccinated arm than the placebo arm—5.7 percent in the former versus 4.7 percent in the latter.

    “That is hanging over this program,” Dr. Paul Offit, one of the FDA’s advisers, said during Thursday’s meeting.

    The FDA declined to comment on the issue during the meeting, though staffers wrote in a brief that there was “potential uncertainty” regarding premature births.

    Pfizer executives said Pfizer’s vaccine has important differences from the GlaxoSmithKline one, including the way they’re stabilized. They also acknowledged that there was “an overall significant difference in preterm births” between the arms but said the difference was not statistically significant and was driven primarily by data from sites in South Africa.

    “I think we need to place all of this in context. As you’ve already heard, the overall results show no statistically significant difference. The results are driven by the upper- and middle-income countries with the high-income countries not showing this difference,” Dr. William Gruber, Pfizer’s senior vice president for vaccine clinical research and panelists, told panelists. “And as you’ve heard from us, as well as the FDA, there’s the real opportunity, then, to look at this during the period of pharmacovigilance, when we have larger numbers of women being vaccinated, to determine whether or not there is, in fact, any sort of a signal.”

    “But the evidence to this point provides no real support when we take the totality of it based on the Pfizer vaccine for an increased risk of prematurity, and we can investigate that, again, post-approval,” he added later.

    The quote drew criticism from Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.), a doctor who criticized a similar comment made about Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine.

    “Most drugs carry side effects. When considering maternal vaccinations, significant complications such as severe premature births or even pre-term and neonatal deaths may be present. The notion of vaccinating populations to determine whether or not there will be any side effects leads to a mistrust in the FDA, public health, and the medical community,” Murphy told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement.

    Dr. Iona Munjal, a Pfizer senior director for vaccines, noted during the meeting that there were more deaths in the placebo group. “When you look at poor outcomes like death or poor neonatal outcomes in our study, we don’t see those poor outcomes,” she said. “And this is probably due to the fact that most of the infants are born very near term and not proximally related to the vaccine.”

    A colorized scanning electron micrograph shows human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) virions shedding from human lung epithelial cells. (NIAID via The Epoch Times)

    RSV

    RSV peaks in the United States during the winter, with very low levels during the summer and fall. It primarily affects children under the age of 1, though it also impacts older children. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates 100 to 300 children die each year from RSV, though a death certificate review for the 12 years ending in 2016 identified just 478 in that population, including 315 younger than age 1.

    Approximately 68 percent of infants are infected before they turn 1, panel members heard, and U.S. officials say the vaccine would help curb a major reason for hospitalization.

    The vaccine and others like it are “designed to overcome the shortcomings of previous efforts … [and] represent structural immunology and molecular engineering over empiric vaccinology against a respiratory virus that exacts its heaviest disease burden in the youngest and older adults,” Dr. David Kaslow, the director of the FDA’s Office of Vaccines Research and Review, told the panel.

    The Pfizer vaccine efficacy for hospitalizations due to RSV was 67.7 percent at 90 days but dropped to just 33.3 percent at 360 days, according to the trial data.

    Only one RSV vaccine is currently available in the United States. It is only for adults aged 60 and older.

    Votes

    Many panelists said they were convinced by the high efficacy data, despite concerns about the premature births.

    “If the vaccine actually lives up to the data that we’ve seen today, I can guarantee that many infants and their parents will breathe easier in the coming years,” Dr. Jay Portnoy, one of the members, said.

    Some said there’s a need for a vaccine.

    “If there’s anything real there, we want to make sure we are aware of this. But this really does address a real, real strong need; there isn’t another option here for prevention,” Adam Berger, one of the panelists, said. “And it really could save a lot of lives. So I do think a lot of this is going to lie on the postmarketing requirements.”

    The FDA lists required studies for drug and vaccine manufacturers to carry out in letters of authorization and approval.

    Others echoed Pfizer in asserting that observational data, or looking at outcomes in women who receive the vaccine after it is cleared, would clear up whether premature birth is a side effect.

    “Observational studies, as we go forward will fairly quickly give us an answer. If there is a problem there,” Dr. Arnold Monto, another member, said. “We learned how to bite the bullet and get things out during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine approvals.”

    Dr. Henry Bernstein, another member, said he had reservations due to not wanting another situation like the quick removal of a rotavirus vaccine following a spike in cases of intussusception, a life-threatening condition. Intussusception following vaccination “was not statistically significant until it was more widely used,” he said.

    While all members said the efficacy data support licensure, Offit, Bernstein, Holly Janes, and Dr. Hana El Sahly said the safety data were not sufficient.

    “If you’re in any sense risking premature births with this vaccine, I think there’ll be a big price to pay. And so I just don’t feel we have enough data to be reassuring,” Offit said.

    “There was too much uncertainty,” Janes added. “And I’m uncomfortable with the notion of kicking the can down the road … toward post-marketing surveillance studies. I think it’s a bit different to rely on surveillance studies to sort of confirm what appears to be a safe product whereas here, I think the signals are such that the post-marketing surveillance data would be asked to refute what is sort of a potential hypothesis here, and I think that’s a higher bar.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 15:30

  • Biden Taunts Russia At G7 When Asked About "Colossal Risk" Of Escalation
    Biden Taunts Russia At G7 When Asked About “Colossal Risk” Of Escalation

    President Joe Biden taunted Russia while speaking with reporters Sunday at the G-7 summit in Japan. The big decision which has been a main talking point at the meeting was the White House telling European allies that the US will allow them to export F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine if they desire. 

    This has led to questions over whether this escalation in policy could bring NATO and Russia into direct clash. Here’s how a particular exchange went as the G7 wrapped up:

    Journalist asks Biden about Russia saying that giving Ukraine F-16s is a “colossal risk” .

    Biden: It is, FOR THEM.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also presented a stance of ‘toughness’ and optimism concerning the war. In a speech marking the end of the G-7 he  urged the Western allies to ensure that Russia is the “last aggressor”.

    He called Ukraine’s own 10-point peace plan the world’s “salvation from war,” and emphasized that “We will paralyze other potential aggressors.” 

    “When everyone who wants war sees how determined the world is when it wants peace, there will be no point to start a war,” he said. 

    His words came on the heels of Biden unveiling another $375million military aid package featuring more ammo, vehicles, and weapons. But news of the fall of Bakhmut clearly put a damper on the G7 proceedings for those officials gathered in Hiroshima. Zelensky appeared to offer some degree of confirmation that Ukraine no longer holds the city, following the Saturday announcement from Wagner: 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    As for Biden, he attempted to present the loss of Bakhmut as in the end more devastating for the Russian side, claiming that it suffered a huge number of casualties: 

    “There is a discussion about Bakhmut – whether or not it’s been lost or whatever,” he said.

    “Well, the truth of the matter is the Russians have suffered over 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut. That’s hard to make up. So whether or not there are troops in Bakhmut occupying, there are not many buildings left standing in Bakhmut. It’s a pretty devastated city. But they have been able to move in a direction that they’ve been able to lock down an awful lot of the Russian forces, including the Wagner Group.”

    Biden made this statement in the context of the upcoming counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the possible transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. According to the U.S. president, F-16s “would not have helped (the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut).”

    It’s unclear where the US president got these numbers, but they have been echoed before by some Pentagon and intelligence officials. It seems Washington’s new narrative will be to consider Bakhmut only an extremely costly Pyrrhic victory for the Russian side.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 15:00

  • This Year's Emmy For Outstanding Reality Series Goes to…
    This Year’s Emmy For Outstanding Reality Series Goes to…

    By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

    This Year’s Emmy for Outstanding Reality Series Goes to…

    The Debt Ceiling.

    Voters were just amazed at how much was made from such a flimsy topic. Others commented that the debt ceiling had become tired, worn, and too predictable, but this year’s cast of characters brought out some new energy. While highly unusual to be given an award for a series that hasn’t been finished, it just stood out as being deserving of the recognition. Critics claimed that it was manufactured, unbelievable, and with one-dimensional characters constrained by an unbelievable script, but the audience is always right!

    How can this move markets when 95% of people believe that a default cannot happen? Even those who think that it could happen don’t believe that it is likely. Yet, markets moved on a series of headlines, including the ever popular “the meeting ended abruptly in disagreement” followed by “they are heading back to the table”.

    Who out there wasn’t gripped by the tale? The “behind the scenes” end of season reveal should be exciting. Just imagine senior political officials huddled in an office, apparently discussing the fate of the nation’s debt, but in reality are all logged into their trading accounts to make sure that they buy or sell ahead of the news. Ok, I’m sure that the last part didn’t happen, but it is kind of funny (in a sad way) to think about, as insider trading isn’t prohibited in any way on the hill and the headlines, especially late in the week, seemed to be perfect for triggering buy programs and later a sell program or two.

    In any case, the debt ceiling continues to take up a lot of focus for markets. Probably far too much focus as default seems unlikely, and despite the “world is ending” arguments, I don’t see a default (that is cured within a few days or a week) as being devastating. Longer-term maybe, but I’d likely buy any “default dip”.

    In the meantime, the S&P (up 1.7%) and Nasdaq (up 3.0%) posted strong weeks even as rates rose rather significantly. I didn’t believe that we would see much of a “debt ceiling resolved” bounce since I don’t think that many have been shorting against the debt ceiling specifically.

    Next Week

    Last week, Academy was a lead manager on Bank of NY’s 3NC2 bonds. Always exciting for Academy when we get selected for such a senior role. I spent much of the week away from the screens, as we travelled from Peoria to Kiawah and then on to DC and Virginia. I got to spend time with several of our generals and admirals and look forward to doing a more geopolitical slanted macro piece early next week. China was front and center, as was the dollar, but more on that on Tuesday.

    On Tuesday we get NVDA earnings. The stock is up over 110% year-to-date and is a focal point for the AI theme. When looking at markets for the past month (S&P up 1.4% and Nasdaq up 4.9%), I’m pretty sure that if you pull the “AI themed stocks” out of the S&P 500 it would have been negative.

    AI is the growth story and undoubtedly is changing the world. Everyone is examining AI and thinking about not just how to use it, but how to keep their jobs relevant in an AI driven world. I’m fully on board with that, but have valuations gotten ahead of themselves? Is AI really big enough (and soon enough) to prop up the entire market? However, I can see the rationale and could be convinced that there is a lot more to come. On the other hand, I’m old enough to remember the “metaverse” (and that rally) and a time when companies that were changing their names to include “blockchain” saw significant pops. Everything about the AI story seems much bigger than either of those examples, but the market seems to have a habit of getting ahead of itself. In a market where there has been so little to like (I keep seeing stats complaining about the lack of breadth), it is easy to gravitate to the one story that has legs. The NVDA earnings (and call) could be the biggest market driver of any release this earnings season, which is an accomplishment in its own right!

    In between flights, checking in and out of hotel rooms, discussing geopolitics, digesting debt ceiling headlines, and getting smarter about the AI revolution, I did think a bit about the economy. We saw some “mixed” data last week, but nothing that changes my view that the best is behind us. Rather than haphazardly pulling together some charts, I will go back to an old favorite – the Citi Economic Surprise Index.

    A few weeks ago we postulated that we would see a downturn in the “surprise” index. The “surprise” index is interesting because it is “relative”. Just because it is declining doesn’t mean that the data is bad. It could just be that expectations got so strong that even “good” data created a negative surprise. This time around, the data has gotten weaker, since I’m finding very few positive economists (which, as a contrarian, scares me as I’m definitely part of the consensus).

    As the data deteriorates, forecasts will be lowered. I do think that once we make it through the debt ceiling (which really seems like just a bad idea for a reality TV series) and the AI earnings, we will see some economic bears get some airtime. As data disappoints, those that were looking for a downturn in the data (and expecting a recession) will get some more attention, which should act as a headwind for risk.

    By the middle of next week, we will be back to focusing on the economy and what that means for markets (and that won’t be supportive).

    In the meantime, I just want to thank all of Academy’s customers, not just for the business and opportunities that you provide us with, but for all of the discussions and information sharing which makes us smarter and better able to serve you!

    Thanks again! And if I sound too harsh on DC and the time spent on the debt ceiling, I actually toned down my comments and I am pretty sure that my editors will do the same!

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 05/21/2023 – 14:30

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May 21

Today’s News 21st May 2023

  • Paul Craig Roberts: The United States Has Been Destroyed By Its Ruling Elites
    Paul Craig Roberts: The United States Has Been Destroyed By Its Ruling Elites

    Via PaulCraigRoberts.org, (emphasis ours)

    Against the backdrop of the United States’ recognition of the investigation against Donald Trump as politically motivated, structural and ideological controversies, and concerns that the American economy will enter a recession, the GEOFOR editorial board asked Paul Craig Roberts, Chairman of the Institute for Political Economy (USA), a PhD in Economics and US Undersecretary of Treasury in the Reagan administration, to share his views on America’s future.

    GEOFOR: Special Counsel John Durham “acquitted” Donald Trump on the so-called “Russiagate”, writing in his report that the FBI investigation was politically motivated. How will this news affect the Democrats’ fight against Trump?

    Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: The Special Counsel’s vindication of Donald Trump and denunciation of the FBI for conducting a politically motivated investigation devoid of any evidence should collapse the equally fraudulent Biden regime investigation of Trump on fake documents charges and the New York state prosecution of Trump on alleged expense misreporting charges. It has been clear for a long time that the list of fake charges against Trump, supported by the media, are propaganda to prevent Trump again running for President and to teach all future potential presidential candidates that they will be destroyed if they attempt to represent the people instead of the unelected ruling oligarchy.

    However, the Democrat Party and the presstitutes that service them have no respect whatsoever for truth. Facts simply do not matter to them. This is true also of American Universities, law associations, medical associations, the CIA, FBI, NSA, the State Department, the regulatory agencies such as NIH, CDC, FDA, the large corporations, and many establishment Republican members of the House and Senate who serve the economic interests that pay them, not truth. It is also the case with a high percentage of Democrat voters who have been conditioned by propaganda to hate Trump. To Democrats what matters is not facts, but getting Trump. Truth is not permitted to prevent the destruction of Trump.

    Consequently, the US is moving toward a fatal split in the society from which recovery is impossible. Trump represents ordinary Americans who prefer peace to the neoconservatives’ wars, who want their jobs back that the greed-driven capitalist global corporations sent to China and Asia, who want their children properly educated instead of indoctrinated with sexual perversion, Satanism, and told that they are racists. In contrast, the Democrats are increasingly Woke–people who believe that truth is an oppressive tool of white supremacy, that Christian morality is tyrannical and discriminatory against pedophiles and other sexual perverts, and that, as “President” Biden himself has said, white people are the greatest threat to America. See: https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2023/05/15/us-navy-enlists-drag-queen-for-digital-ambassador-role-to-attract-more-recruits-2/

    Now that official investigations by the House Republicans have brought the utter corruption of Biden and his son to light (see: https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2023/05/16/bank-records-show-biden-family-received-10-million-in-payments-from-china-foreign-interests-house-oversight/ ), the Democrats, the dangerous and corrupt military/security complex, and the complicit whore American media, are desperate. They all stand as being exposed. So, rather than apologize for their mistreatment of Trump and his supporters–1,000 of whom the Democrats have illegally imprisoned–they will likely strike out while they still control the Executive Branch, the US Senate, the CIA, FBI, NSA, and federal agencies such as the IRS that have been armed and militarized.

    Alternatively, the corrupt and threatened Democrats might cause war between the US and Russia, or Iran, or China in the hopes that a war will unify even Trump supporters, especially the super-patriots among them, around the “President” against “foreign enemies.”

    GEOFOR: Recently there were reports that former Vice President Mike Pence seriously intends to compete with Donald Trump in the presidential race of 2024. How do you assess his chances and why did he decide to take such a step?

    Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: Mike Pence has no chance whatsoever of prevailing over Donald Trump. Pence is running as a service to the ruling establishment. Spence is a pretend Christian Evangelical. Evangelicals don’t oppose Armageddon, because they believe they will be wafted up to Heaven, while those still on earth get consumed in fire. The Ruling American Oligarchy hopes that Spence will draw off the Christian Evangelicals from the Trump vote, thus reducing Trump’s margin of victory so that the Democrats can again steal the presidential election. As evangelicals are not very astute, the Democrats might succeed in derailing Trump and the American people. Pence, of course, would not become president.

    GEOFOR: We can’t help but ask about the migration problem. After the abolition of Section 42, analysts predict a new influx of refugees from Mexico and Latin America. What will such problems lead to and will they affect the election of the head of the White House next year?

    Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: The Biden regime is spending billions of dollars “to defend Ukraine’s borders,” but won’t spend one penny to defend America’s borders. The Democrats want the Hispanic and Black immigrants, who they will give the vote, because the immigrant-invaders water down the white majority population and destroy the ethnic basis of the US. Instead of a unified nation, there is a Tower of Babel.

    As the Democrats control the major cities in most states and thereby the election rules and vote counting, It doesn’t matter how people vote. As Stalin said, the only thing that matters is who counts the vote. Only a total fool would expect Democrats to count votes that gave victory to Republicans.

    GEOFOR: Passions around the American public debt, inflation, jobs and the possible new collapses of American banks are only growing. Tell us, please, what awaits the American economy in the foreseeable future? After all, the recession in the United States will have an impact on the whole world one way or another…

    Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: The United States, despite my best efforts and the efforts of others for decades, has been destroyed by its ruling elites for the sake of short-term profits and short-term growth in power over the people. By offshoring its manufacturing jobs, the global corporations destroyed the American middle class and the ladders to upward mobility that had made America the “opportunity society.” Today many former American manufacturing and industrial cities look like the remains of bombed cities.

    As US corporations produce the goods abroad that they market to Americans, the goods enter the US as imports. Thus, offshoring production for the home market worsens the trade deficit.

    The trade deficit has to be financed. This is no problem for the US as long as the dollar is in demand as the reserve currency by all countries in order to pay for their international transactions, and countries with trade surpluses keep their monetary surpluses in US Treasury bonds, thus financing both the US trade and budget deficits. Washington in an act of incredible stupidity has driven a dagger through the heart of the US dollar as world reserve currency, thus ending Washington’s ability to pay its bills by printing money. The dagger was the Biden regime’s Russian and other sanctions and the seizure of Russia’s central bank deposits. This finally convinced the rest of the world that holding dollar balances exposed a country to the risk of expropriation or control by Washington.

    The consequence is that the world is moving away from the use of the dollar, instead settling their trade balances in their own or other currencies. Therefore, the demand for dollars is declining, but the supply is rising because of the US trade and budget deficits.

    Sooner or later the US dollar’s exchange value will fall, setting off high inflation in the US that is outside the control of the central bank. American living standards will fall, and the US will begin to look like India in 1900.The hatred of white people that Democrats have taught to blacks and immigrant-invaders will result in internal war. The only question is whether white Americans will have been so indoctrinated with their guilt that they are unable to defend themselves.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 23:30

  • Where The Most Death Penalties Are Carried Out
    Where The Most Death Penalties Are Carried Out

    At least 883 people are known to have been put to death last year, according to Amnesty International’s annual review of the death penalty. However, as Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, the true number is likely far higher, as several countries do not publish accurate figures – including North Korea, Vietnam and Belarus.

    In China, where numbers remain a state secret, thousands of people are believed to be executed and sentenced to death each year.

    Infographic: Where the Most Death Penalties Are Carried Out | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    As Statista’s chart shows, Iran comes second only after China with at least 576 people known to have been executed in 2022, up 55 percent from the year.

    The crimes behind these executions are mostly related to drugs and murder, while 18 were for moharebeh (enmity against God), which can be connected to the protests surrounding the death of Mahsa Amini.

    Amnesty International notes that Saudi Arabia also saw a significant increase in death sentences since 2020, rising from 27 to a record high of 196 deaths, 83 of whom were executed for terrorism-related crimes. In total, 55 countries still have the death penalty, 20 of which recorded executions in 2022.

    In the U.S., 18 executions were recorded in 2022 across six jurisdictions. These were Alabama (2), Arizona (3), Mississippi (1), Missouri (2), Oklahoma (5), and Texas (5). Meanwhile, there were 21 new death sentences recorded across 12 states. These included: Alabama (3), Arizona (1), California (2), Florida (5), Georgia (1), Louisiana (1), Mississippi (1), Missouri (1), North Carolina (2), Oklahoma (1), Pennsylvania (1) and Texas (2).

    It is worth noting that while 2021 saw a 20 percent increase from the year before, both years represented the lowest number of executions since Amnesty International’s records began back in 2010. This lull, likely due to executions being put on hold because of the pandemic, seems to over, with the figures reaching their highest point since 2017.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 23:00

  • Gun Industry Writes To Congress As Imminent Ban Threatens 40 Million Firearms
    Gun Industry Writes To Congress As Imminent Ban Threatens 40 Million Firearms

    Submitted by Gun Owners of America,

    On June 1st, the Biden Pistol Ban is set to go into effect. This rule, concocted by the bureaucrats at ATF, criminalizes ownership of an estimated 40 million firearms currently in possession by law-abiding citizens. 

    According to the final rule, gun owners who possess braced firearms will have to destroy, reconfigure, register, and turn in their firearms to ATF, or face NFA violations which include $250,000 in fines and a hefty prison sentence.

    This rule will have some of the most wide-reaching impacts nationwide compared to other ATF administrative rulemaking actions. In comparison, ATF’s bump stock rule was estimated to have affected 520,000 Americans, whereas this pistol brace ruling affects 80 times more law-abiding citizens.

    In response, the No Compromise Alliance sent a letter signed by notable firearms industry companies to Congress. 

    Among the undersigned are notable firearms industry companies such as Rifle Dynamics, Kahr Arms Group, KCI USA, Tippmann Arms, and more. 

    Additionally, two other letters were sent to Congress, with notable people of influence throughout the firearms community – representing more than 30 million viewers – and local ranges & shops that are bound to be affected by ATF’s overreach. 

    While these letters certainly make a statement, Gun Owners of America is working on all fronts to defeat the ATF’s pistol brace rule before it goes into effect. 

    GOA has a lawsuit in the 5th Circuit with Texas AG Ken Paxton. This circuit is the same that recently overturned the ATF’s bump stock rule in January of 2023. 

    In addition, GOA has backed legislation targeting the root of the issue with the SHORT Act. The act itself would remove Short Barreled Rifles (SBR), Short Barreled Shotguns (SBS), and ATF’s favorite, “Any Other Weapons” (AOWs) from the unconstitutional regulation of the National Firearms Act. 

    The NFA is the law that ATF derives its regulatory authority from on the brace issue, so the SHORT Act aims to stop the ATF by removing its power over such items in the first place. 

    Lastly, GOA has fought hard with our allies in Congress to bring the ATF’s pistol brace rule under scrutiny via the Congressional Review Act. 

    For those unfamiliar, the Congressional Review Act allows Congress to file a joint resolution of disapproval, which would overturn agency rulemaking. 

    This is where we need your help. 

    With our legal fight against Biden and his ATF coming down to the wire, please call your Senators and Representatives and let them know to support the Joint Resolution for Congressional disapproval of the ATF’s rulemaking. 

    You can call your elected officials at (202) 224-3121

    Let them know to support S.J. RES. 20 if they’re in the Senate & H.J. RES. 20 if they’re in the House of Representatives. 

    *   *   * 

    We’ll hold the line for you in Washington. We are No Compromise. Join the Fight Now.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 22:30

  • Where 'Conversion Therapy' Is Still Legal
    Where ‘Conversion Therapy’ Is Still Legal

    Conversion therapy has been banned in several countries around the world, including Canada, Brazil, Ecuador, Spain, Germany, France, Malta and New Zealand, according to data aggregated by the Global Equality Caucus and The International Lesbian Gay Bisexual Trans and Intersex Association (ILGA).

    Conversion therapy is the process of trying to stop someone from being gay or trying to stop someone who wants to change their gender identity.

    Methods include spoken therapy and prayer, or even more extreme tactics such as exorcism, physical violence, or food deprivation, as reported by the BBC. The British Psychological Society and Royal College of Psychiatrists in the UK declared that all kinds of conversion therapy are “unethical and potentially harmful”.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, in much of the world the practice of conversion therapy is still legal.

    Infographic: Where ‘Conversion Therapy’ Is Still Legal | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    In multiple other countries though, although no explicit legislative ban exists, limited bans or bans through indirect prohibition have been introduced.

    For example, several countries have introduced a ban on health practitioners to carry out conversion therapy. These include Albania, Switzerland and Taiwan (the latter banning health care professionals from carrying out conversion therapies on minors). In India, Tamil Nadu became the first Indian state to ban conversion therapy after a court order issued by a justice of the Madras High Court in 2021.

    Meanwhile, several countries, such as Australia, Mexico and the United States, have seen gains with implementing bans on a regional or more basis.

    The trend to enforce legislation banning conversion is slowly picking up pace, with national governments and parliaments in Belgium, Chile, Colombia, Cyprus, Iceland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway and Portugal all in various states of pending legislation. At the same time, according to the Global Equality Caucus, Austria, Finland, Sweden and the United Kingdom have all expressed an intention to legislate bans.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 22:00

  • FBI Improperly Used Surveillance Program To Spy On Jan. 6 Suspects
    FBI Improperly Used Surveillance Program To Spy On Jan. 6 Suspects

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The FBI abused its surveillance powers while spying on suspects in the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of the U.S. Capitol and Black Lives Matter protesters, a federal court said in a newly unsealed ruling.

    FBI Director Christopher Wray speaks during a press conference at the Justice Department in Washington, on Jan. 26, 2023. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

    FBI agents flaunted standards the agency developed for the Section 702 program, which enables spying on Americans and others, more than 278,000 times, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court said in the 2022 ruling, which was made public for the first time on May 19.

    Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act enables agencies like the FBI to collect information like emails without warrants from foreigners, even if they’re in the United States, and bars intentionally targeting Americans.

    The FBI developed its own standard for Section 702 searches, stating that queries “must be reasonably likely to retrieve foreign intelligence information, as defined by FISA, or evidence of a crime, unless otherwise specifically excepted.”

    But FBI agents have been violating the standard, the court has found, with the newest ruling disclosing hundreds of thousands of abusive searches in addition to those already known.

    The abusive searches include multiple improper queries targeting suspected or confirmed Jan. 6 suspects.

    In one instance, an analyst searched for information on 13 people suspected of being involved in the Capitol breach. The analyst “said she ran the queries to determine whether these individuals had foreign ties,” but the Department of Justice’s National Security Division (NSD) “concluded the queries were not reasonably likely to retrieve foreign intelligence information or evidence of crime,” the newly unsealed ruling states.

    In another case, widespread searches that in total consisted of more than 23,000 separate queries looked for information on presumed Americans to see whether the people were “being used by a group” involved in the breach.

    “The queries were run against unminimized Section 702 information to find evidence of possible foreign influence, although the analyst conducting the queries had no indications of foreign influence related to the query terms used,” the court said. “NSD assessed there was no specific factual basis to believe the queries were reasonably likely to retrieve foreign intelligence information or evidence of crime from Section 702 information.”

    Other Improper Searches

    The new ruling, released by the Office of Director of National Intelligence, also revealed that FBI personnel improperly surveilled a congressional campaign.

    An analyst conducted a so-called batch query, or a widespread query, for over 19,000 donors to the campaign. The analyst claimed the campaign was “a target of foreign influence,” but NSD officials found sufficient evidence for queries for just eight of the people who were queried.

    In another instance, a batch query was conducted on 133 people who were arrested “in connection with civil unrest and protests between approximately May 30, and June 18, 2020,” the time period during which people, primarily Black Lives Matter members and supporters, were protesting and rioting over the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

    “The query was run to determine whether the FBI had ‘any counter-terrorism derogatory information on the arrestees,’ but without ‘any specific potential connections to terrorist related activity’ known to those who conducted the queries,’” the court found. NSD said the queries violated the FBI standards, but the FBI disagreed, claiming there was a “reasonable basis to believe these queries ‘would return foreign intelligence” due to citations that were redacted.

    Additional 2020 violations included queries using variations of “political activist groups involved in organized protests;” 697 queries using identifiers on scheduled visits to a place or person that were redacted in the ruling; searches for at least 790 defense contractors that the FBI was considering requesting cooperation from; and at least 330 queries conducted using identifiers of employees of a company whose name was redacted, with the FBI claiming it might recruit the employees as sources.

    Multiple queries were run without obtaining an order from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, another violation of the law.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 21:30

  • Visualizing The American Workforce As 100 People
    Visualizing The American Workforce As 100 People

    n 2022, the U.S. population stood at 333 million. Of that, roughly 60% were employed in various jobs, positions, and sectors in the U.S. economy.

    But where did all these people work? What jobs did they do and what positions did they hold? Where do most Americans do their nine-to-five?

    Using data from the National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates (2022) put out by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao reimagines the employed American workforce as only 100 people, to find out answers.

    Interestingly, the data contains a mix of information demarcations. Some are job-specific (type of work), some are based on position (like Management), and some are broken down by industry (Transport and Health).

    The Most Common Jobs In the U.S.

    By far, most of the American workforce (13 out of 100) are employed in Office & Administrative work. This includes a mind-boggling variety of jobs: receptionists, payroll clerks, secretaries, proof-readers, administrative assistants, and customer service representatives to name a few.

    Notably, any sort of management role is absent from this, as well as any other job categories, since the BLS categorizes managers in their own class.

    The industry which employs the second largest group of people is Health, accounting for 11 people from the 100. This category is a combination of two sectors listed in the original dataset (healthcare practitioners and healthcare support) and covers the entire industry: from physicians, surgeons, veterinarians, nurses, and therapists to technicians, assistants, orderlies, and home and personal care aides.

    Here’s a quick look at all the major sectors most of America’s workforce actually works in.

    Rank Jobs People Examples
    1. Office & Admin 13 Receptionists, Clerks, Customer service, Secretaries.
    2. Health 11 Doctors, Nurses, Paramedics, Vets, Orderlies, Personal care aides.
    3. Transport 9 Warehouse workers, Packagers, Pilots, Ambulance, Bus, Truck, Taxi drivers, Ship captains.
    4. Sales 9 Sales representatives, Counter clerks.
    5. Food 8 Food preparers & servers, Bartenders, Dishwashers, Hosts.
    6. Management 6 Legislators, Chief executives, Directors, General & Operations managers.
    7. Business & Finance 6 Accountants, Auditors, Financial analysts, Logisticians.
    8. Manufacturing 6 Factory workers, Gas fitters, Machine operators, Cobblers, Tailors, Barbers.
    9. Education 6 Teachers (all fields, all levels).
    10. Construction & Extraction 4 Stone / brick / block / cement masons. Construction laborers. Roofers, Plumbers, Electricians, Mining workers.
    11. Mechanics & Installation 4 Auto mechanic, Farm equipment mechanic, Home appliance mechanic, Locksmiths.
    12. Data & Tech 3 Information analyst, Database architect, Software & Web
    developers, Data scientists, Mathematicians, Computer support.
    13. Custodial 3 Cleaning, Groundskeeping, Landscaping, Housekeeping.
    14. Protection 2 Cops, Firefighters, Security guards, Lifeguards, Correctional officers.
    15. Hospitality 2 Animal trainers / caretakers. Ushers / attendants. Makeup artists. Concierge. Exercise trainers.
    16. Architecture & Engineering 2 All engineers and architects (excluding the information industry).
    17. Community & Social Service 2 Social workers, Therapists (counsellors) & Religious work.
    18. Arts, Media, & Sport 1 Fine artists, Designers, Actors, Athletes, Journalists, Writers, Authors, Musicians.
    19. Science 1 All scientists (not engineers).
    20. Legal 1 Lawyers, Judges, Paralegals, Mediators.
    21. Farming, Fishing, & Forestry 1 Farmers, logging workers.
      Total 100  

    The third most common job is actually a tie between Transport—cargo moving workers, pilots, truck drivers—and Sales—retail and industry sales agents, counter clerks—with both sectors employing nine of the 100 people. In the Sales category, two of the nine people are cashiers.

    Ranked fifth is Food, with eight people, ranging from private chefs to serving staff at fast food restaurants.

    Another six all belong in some kind of Management role (across industry, and including legislators) with two of those six being “top level executives” like a CEO, a general manager, a mayor, or university president. Management shares its spot with Business & Finance, Manufacturing, and Education, all at six each.

    The following jobs or industries also employ the same number of people:

    • Construction & Extraction along with Mechanics & Installation, at four each.

    • Data & Tech, with Custodial jobs, with three each.

    • Protection, Hospitality, Architecture & Engineering, and Social work, all at two each.

    • Artists & Athletes, Scientists, Legal, and Farming, Fishing & Forestry are all one each.

    Quirks of the Job Data

    From the numbers, some fascinating nuances of the American workforce are revealed. For example, there are more cashiers (2) in the economy than artists, writers, designers & athletes (1). There are the same number of customer service representatives as the entire Scientific and Legal fields put together (2).

    But perhaps the most interesting quirk comes from how few people are employed in the Farming, Fishing & Forestry industry, a critical primary sector. In raw data, the BLS estimates only slightly more than 450,000 farm, fish & forestry workers.

    Importantly, it’s worth noting the BLS only collects data from “nonfarm” establishments, explaining the low estimate for their category, which is almost one-sixth of what the USDA estimates. Please see the data note at the end of this article for a full explanation.

    Which Jobs Have the Highest Wages in the U.S.?

    Meanwhile, the top 20 highest paid jobs (by annual average wages) all belong to doctors (usually specialists or surgeons), with two exceptions: CEOs and athletes.

    The lowest-paid jobs are a mix of entertainers, and service and retail staff.

    As a broader category, however, Management makes the most money, followed by Legal and then Tech. Workers in Food, Health Support, and Custodial jobs have the lowest wages.

    Rank Jobs Annual Average Wages
    1. Management $131,200
    2. Legal $124,540
    3. Data & Tech $108,130
    4. Health (Practitioners) $96,770
    5. Architecture & Engineering $94,670
    6. Business & Finance $86,080
    7. Scientists $83,640
    8. Arts, Media, Sports $76,500
    9. Education $63,240
    10. Construction & Extraction $58,400
    11. Community & Social Service $55,760
    12. Mechanics & Installation $55,680
    13. Protection $54,010
    14. Sales $50,370
    15. Office & Admin $45,550
    16. Manufacturing $45,370
    17. Transport $43,930
    18. Farming, Fishing, & Forestry $37,870
    20. Hospitality $36,210
    19. Custodial $35,900
    21. Health (Support) $35,560
    22. Food $32,130

    Analyzing the data throws up a few correlations between number of employees and wages. The top three sectors with the most jobs (Admin, Transport, and Sales) are in the bottom 10 categories when it comes to pay.

    On the other hand, three sectors in the bottom 10 of employment numbers, (Data & Tech, Architecture & Engineering, and Legal) are in the top five highest paid sectors.

    The Health sector sees a big divide in pay between practitioners (doctors, nurses, therapists) ranked 5th and support staff (assistants, aides, & orderlies), ranked 21st, or second-to-last.

    How is the American Workforce Changing?

    Over the last five years, the American workforce has not stayed static. Of the listed 22 groups, 13 saw growth in employment numbers, nine saw a decrease, and one stayed flat since 2018.

    The top gainer by far is Health Support (medical assistants, care aides, orderlies, etc.) which grew by 65%. Looking at the timeline of growth does not paint a steady picture: employment jumped between 2018 and 2019, briefly fell in 2020, and has since risen again in 2021-2022.

    Another top gainer is Transport, rising from the 4th to 3rd biggest employer, beating out Sales in 2022. Business & Finance and Management have also seen steady increases since 2018.

    On the other hand Hospitality saw a staggering 48% drop in numbers, not all together surprising given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the rise of tech companies like Airbnb.

    Meanwhile, Office & Admin work saw a 15% loss in employees, even though this category is still the biggest employer in the country by a significant margin. Although jobs in this group saw steady declines from 2018-2021, it registered a slight uptick in workers between 2021 and 2022.

    Here’s a full list of top-level sectors and how they changed.

    Jobs 2018 2022 % Change (2018-2022)
    Health Support 4,117,450 6,792,310 +65%
    Transport 10,244,260 13,560,460 +32%
    Management 7,616,650 9,860,740 +29%
    Business & Finance 7,721,300 9,677,720 +25%
    Data & Tech 4,384,300 5,003,910 +14%
    Sciences 1,171,910 1,314,360 +12%
    Legal 1,127,900 1,216,600 +7%
    Community & Social Service 2,171,820 2,313,620 +7%
    Arts, Media, & Sports 1,951,170 2,063,380 +6%
    Health Practioners 8,646,730 9,043,070 +5%
    Mechanics and Installataion 5,628,880 5,823,400 +3%
    Construction & Extraction 5,962,640 6,075,520 +2%
    Protection 3,437,410 3,437,610 0%
    Custodial 4,421,980 4,316,350 -2%
    Architecture & Engineering 2,556,220 2,481,170 -3%
    Education 8,779,780 8,496,780 -3%
    Farming, Fishing, & Forestry 480,130 461,750 -4%
    Manufacturing 9,115,530 8,738,980 -4%
    Food 13,374,620 12,514,620 -6%
    Sales and Related 14,542,290 13,183,250 -9%
    Office & Admin 21,828,990 18,674,770 -15%
    Hospitality 5,451,330 2,835,650 -48%

    Looking ahead, questions about the future of the American workforce loom large, especially in the wake of the AI revolution that has swept imaginations, and quite possibly, soon the economy. People who hold administrative jobs—the largest category—are most vulnerable since many office tasks can be automated with increasingly sophisticated AI tools.

    Will AI be as dominating a factor as the Industrial Revolution on the global economy? Will it cause as big a shift as the offshoring of manufacturing from the U.S.?

    Or will AI blend seamlessly into the current make-up of the American workforce, merely enhancing productivity and profit?

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 21:00

  • "It's Criminal": Central Wisconsin Communities Unite To Stave Off Looming Wind Turbine Industry
    “It’s Criminal”: Central Wisconsin Communities Unite To Stave Off Looming Wind Turbine Industry

    Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times,

    Central Wisconsin communities are coordinating efforts to shine a light into the flickering shadow cast by a looming wind turbine industry.

    “There is a revolt happening here,” attorney Marti Machtan told The Epoch Times. “I’ve never seen our communities engage like this in my life.”

    Machtan is a member of Farmland First, an organization that aims to facilitate discussion among community members concerned about reported coercive, predatory tactics used by industrial wind companies to manipulate landowners into signing their property rights away in the name of green energy.

    “These companies are sneaky about it,” Tom Wilcox— also a member of Farmland First and chairman of the Town of Green Grove in Owen, Wisconsin—told The Epoch Times. “They don’t want to come right out and say how this will work. In fact, part of the reason why people don’t know this is happening is farmers have to agree to keep their mouth shut on the details of the contract.”

    Wilcox is also on the Clark County Board of Supervisors and chairman of the Clark County Planning and Zoning.

    Marti Machtan and Tom Wilcox at a farm free of wind turbines in Wisconsin in 2023. (Courtesy of Tom Wilcox)

    This month, at least 13 central Wisconsin towns have passed health and safety ordinances setting the ground rules for companies seeking to build wind turbines up to 600 feet tall as close as 1,250 feet from their homes.

    The resolutions are written to mitigate the harm wind turbines have been reported to cause to people, their land, and their natural environment, including wildlife.

    Word spread after some community members openly discussed rejecting alluring offers with payoffs of over $1 million over 30 years to have a wind turbine built on their farm.

    However, Machtan argued that because turbine companies can exit the contract for any reason, the possibility of actually getting that amount wouldn’t be a safe bet.

    For Wilcox, there are too many unanswered questions, like how it works and what it does to property values.

    Initially, Wilcox said he held the attitude that people can do whatever they want with their farm.

    “But as I got further into this, I realized that these wind turbines aren’t at all good for the farming community,” Wilcox said. “As I got deeper, I realized just what kind of a sham this really is.”

    ‘Imbalanced, Unfair, One-Sided’

    Machtan has reviewed, negotiated, and drafted over a billion dollars worth of contracts with companies of various sizes.

    His assessment of the contracts between farmers and wind turbine companies like RWE Clean Energy, which has advanced into central Wisconsin, is as bad as he’s ever read.

    “I don’t think I’ve ever seen one that was more imbalanced, unfair, or one-sided to the benefit of the company and to the detriment of the farmer,” Machtan said.

    Many provisions in these contracts give more power to the wind company over the land than the property owner.

    The wind company can get out of the contract at any time for any reason, while the farmer must commit to a decade’s worth of encumbrances, Machtan said.

    “There are liability shifting provisions for the big multi-billion-dollar multinational companies that shift risks onto these farmers,” he said.

    There are also inadequate decommissioning standards, he added.

    “One of the things people are worried about is, because this type of energy production really doesn’t make sense over the long term, there’s the risk that farmers are going to be left holding the bag,” Machtan said.

    There’s no mutual sharing of opportunity and risk, Machtan said, leaving him to conclude that these aren’t green-energy projects.

    “This is financial engineering designed to shift risk on the farmers and our communities while providing large stable returns to private equity,” Machtan said. “What’s actually driving them is pension funds and other investors trying to get a stable return for their shareholders with as little risk as possible with the support of our federal and state government.”

    Cows stand in a field with wind turbines near Eldorado, Texas, on April 16, 2021. (Sergio Flores/AFP via Getty Images)

    The ESG Framework

    Electricity derived from wind is advertised as a clean departure from dependence on fossil fuels, the burning of which is argued to be the source of what some believe to be global warming.

    In 2021, President Joe Biden signed into law the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and in 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act, both of which incentivize federal and corporate investment in creating a renewable energy industry, a component of the environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) framework.

    Despite Biden’s proclamation that green energy companies would be domestically sourced, foreign shareholders and big banks are set to profit the most from these companies headquartered in the United States.

    The largest shareholder of RWE Clean Energy—a subsidiary of the German parent company RWE—is Qatar Holding LLC, headquartered in Qatar.

    “The maddening thing is that politicians can say, ‘American companies are investing in clean energy,’ and technically be telling the truth, but the parent companies or major investors or both are foreign,” Machtan said.

    A Health Hazard

    Just three years after wind turbines were installed in northeast Wisconsin in Brown County, they were declared a human health hazard by the county board of health in a unanimous vote in 2014, according to the Brown County Citizens for Responsible Wind Energy (BCCRWE).

    To date, the declaration hasn’t been rescinded.

    In 2015, former Brown County Health Director Chua Xiong ruled that there was insufficient evidence to link wind turbines to the illnesses reported by people who lived near the Shirley Wind Power, owned by Duke Energy.

    BCCRWE called for her resignation, alleging she based her conclusion on a “very flawed process by which submitted evidence was selectively reviewed and inconsistently weighed, or ignored altogether.”

    “The document demonstrates that Xiong’s evidence-review process was fraught with a multitude of failures of due diligence and that her resulting conclusion is without merit,” BCCRWE said.

    She resigned three months after her decision, according to a 2016 news report, to take another job.

    In a documentary produced by BCCRWE, Kevin Aschenbrenner, a former farmer, discussed how the wind turbines affected his livestock.

    Aschenbrenner lost all his cattle, he said, to injury and eventually death. Before that, they ceased producing milk.

    “It just got to the point where we just couldn’t survive anymore on the cattle, and we didn’t want to put the cattle through all of the effects they were getting off the turbines,” Aschenbrenner said.

    William Acker, an energy engineer, said in the documentary that those effects are caused by the pressure pulsations in the infrasound range, “which is basically inaudible noise.”

    “Infrasound is a very low hertz level noise—you can probably hear it in kids’ car stereos nowadays with a very loud booming noise that’s in the infrasound range,” he said. “Infrasound can be audible if the noise level is very high, but what we’re recording from the wind turbines is showing it to be, for the most part, in the inaudible range.”

    Families reported sleep disturbances, ear pain, headaches, dizziness, and chest pain.

    “There’s just a litany of symptoms that are universal; for example, they’re not just here in Shirley Wind, they’re all over the world,” said Jay Tibbetts, a now-deceased medical physician.

    BCCRWE spokesperson Steve Deslauriers told The Epoch Times that landowners—in being distracted by the money—miss the details of the contract that essentially robs them of their property rights and their community’s health.

    “Once you sign up your property, you lose control, not only of the exact placement of the turbines, but you also lose your ability to build, plant trees, and make decisions about the land you still own, but no longer control,” Deslauriers said.

    The companies feed on ignorance and greed, he said, using deceitful tactics.

    “Every time they go into a new community, they walk up to homes and say, ‘Hey, look, your neighbors are already signed up, and since you’re going to get the impacts anyway, you might as well sign up and get paid for it, too,” Deslauriers said. “They use that same playbook ever since they started in Wisconsin, signing up town officials and running over the townspeople.”

    What Deslauriers has seen in the past is companies offering proactive payments in which farmers could sign up their whole property, giving them monthly payments.

    “When the turbines are built, they get X number of dollars per turbine,” Deslauriers said.

    Now, at least from what he’s seen, landowners are being offered payment per megawatt.

    “To put it in perspective, the eight turbines at Duke Energy’s Shirley Wind Power are two-and-a-half megawatt turbines,” he said. “At the time, they were the largest turbines in the country in close proximity to homes. This led to three families being forced from their homes due to conditions in and around their homes. Now the payments look more attractive to landowners but have no doubt; this will lead to even more home abandonment in densely populated communities like ours.”

    The companies suggest that there’s such a good community presence that they’ve decided to minimize the risks and maximize the payments to landowners by putting up five- to six-megawatt turbines on their property, Deslauriers explained.

    “If you do the math on the money, what they throw at these farmers is just peanuts compared to what the companies make,” Deslauriers said. “No Invenergy executives live around a turbine. They sacrifice our families’ health for their wealth. These are the most horribly one-sided contracts you’ve ever seen.”

    In response to The Epoch Times’ request for comment, a spokesperson for Duke Energy said there’s no evidence that Shirly Wind Power is negligent about causing harm to its neighbors.

    “To the contrary of these allegations, court decisions over the past few years continue to support Duke Energy’s position on this issue,” the spokesperson said. “Duke Energy continues to be an important part of Brown County and Town of Glenmore communities endeavoring to work cooperatively as a contributor in a major way to support the residents in their furtherance of various community initiatives and acting consistently and responsibly as we progress towards our clean energy efforts.”

    Cows grazing near a wind turbine in Livermore, California, on May 16, 2007. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

    The Starbucks Rule

    In these rural areas where the wind turbines are targeted to be constructed, Machtan and others have pointed out that farmers lack adequate legal representation and understanding of the deceptive nature of the contracts.

    Farmers can be even more clouded by the money if they are struggling to stay afloat.

    In a “Tucker Carlson Originals” documentary, Kevon Martis, a Michigan-based zoning administrator who advocates against the building of wind turbines, explained “The Starbucks Rule.”

    “Never try and site a wind project within 30 miles of a Starbucks coffee shop,” Martis explained. “The demographic that’s willing to pay a premium price for quality coffee is the same demographic that typically has the education and financial wherewithal to organize and resist irresponsible wind projects.”

    Companies see these rural areas like Wilcox’s township as an easy target because they are low-income, which translates to them as people desperate for revenue.

    Wilcox said he discovered northeastern Clark County was labeled as an economically depressed area when looking for federal grants for broadband.

    “There are extra subsidies involved if companies build these projects in those regions,” Wilcox said.

    However, when wind turbine projects are proposed in wealthy areas such as Nantucket Sound, politicians with homes in that area quickly shut the project down.

    “People who look at some of these wind proposals figure out quickly that one of the reasons their community is being targeted is it’s poor, and they’re perceived as being desperate for revenue,” Martis said in the documentary. “They just think we’re a bunch of rubes and hicks out here.”

    ‘It Only Gets Worse’

    Different people have different objections to what potentially might take place if the turbines are built in Wilcox’s township, he said.

    For many with whom he’s spoken, the destruction of the endangered bald eagle and other birdlife concerns them, he said.

    Clean energy companies like RWE have been granted what’s called an incidental take permit, which is used under the U.S. Endangered Species Act to protect these companies from liability when endangered wildlife is harmed.

    “They have an incidental take permit that basically says, ‘When an eagle flies into the turbine and gets killed, we’re sorry, but we’re not liable,’” Wilcox said. “It always interests me that some people latch on to this portion of it.”

    Though there aren’t a lot of eagles in the area, Wilcox said they’d like to keep the ones they have.

    “But to have an industrial wind complex come in and kill more eagles than I’ve seen in a year, that’s really troubling for us,” he said.

    An eagle’s nest found in a Central Wisconsin township in 2023. (Courtesy of Tom Wilcox)

    For others, it’s about the aesthetics, he said.

    “We have beautiful sunsets here in central Wisconsin, and occasionally you can see the northern lights,” Wilcox said. “But if you have a spinning wind turbine with that flashing red light, it’s going to detract from that aspect of life.”

    Others latch onto the complaint about decreased property values caused by the turbines, he said.

    If given a choice between a farm with a turbine and a farm without, buyers prefer going without, he said.

    People look at the cost benefits—how much the company is potentially going to make compared to how much the landowner will make.

    Then there is the shadow flicker, the movement of the shadow from the turbine passing through people’s homes in a steady but dizzying rhythm.

    “People say you can pull the blinds, but why should you pull the blinds in your home for something you didn’t even want in the first place and aren’t getting any benefit from?” Wilcox asked. “And, of course, when you go outside, it only gets worse.”

     

    A sunset over a central Wisconsin township in 2023. (Courtesy of Tom Wilcox)

    ‘It’s Criminal’

    According to Deslauriers, because of state legislation lobbied for by the turbine companies, municipalities have been stripped of the power to prohibit the construction of wind turbines in their townships through zoning regulations.

    “The legislature took the power away, and the state of Wisconsin promulgated rules that said towns could not make rules any stricter,” he said. “Now, if you’re a village or city, you can exercise home rule and say no, but rural towns cannot.”

    That authority is with the state through the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin (PSC), Deslauriers said, which writes the rules allowing turbine companies to ignore property rights and the health of families.

    “This leaves communities to focus their fight on the devastating health and safety impacts,” Deslauriers said.

    Townships pay a heavy price just to fight the projects, Deslauriers said.

    “The money that we went through locally to stop it last time was an incredible expense for blue-collar families,” Deslauriers said.

    Still, they keep fighting, with little sign of relief from lawmakers on either side of the aisle.

    “The rules that have been put in place are the worst statewide rules in the country,” he said. “It’s the small individual communities that are bearing the massive cost to fight these international wind companies.”

    Lawmakers—both Republican and Democrat—refuse to return the power to regulate wind development to the communities where impacts are felt, he said.

    “These communities have been left to use their very limited resources to fight these guys with all their might, and it’s bankrupting people,” Deslauriers said. “Wind developers leave families split, neighbors fighting, and communities broken. It’s criminal.”

    The Epoch Times contacted RWE Clean Energy, Invenergy, and PSC of Wisconsin for comment.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 20:30

  • Is Self-Defense Becoming Illegal?
    Is Self-Defense Becoming Illegal?

    Authored by Joshua Philipp via The Epoch Times,

    If someone you love were threatened, or physically attacked, do you have the right to defend them? And even more so, when police are being defunded and when criminals are being released on the streets, do you have a right to protect yourself?

    Do you have to just let things happen?

    Must you just watch while innocent people are victimized by criminals?

    Well, that’s the question currently on trial in New York.

    That’s the case of Jordan Neely.

    Now, if you read most news outlets on the left, you’ll hear the 30-year-old black man was a street performer and Michael Jackson impersonator.

    You’ll also hear that his friends said he was a sweet kid, and that he later suffered from mental disabilities and became homeless.

    If you read news outlets on the right, you’ll hear that he was arrested 42 times between 2013 and 2021.

    In 2015, he was convicted of trying to kidnap a 7-year-old girl in Inwood, Queens, and was sentenced to four months in jail. Then, in 2021, he was arrested for punching a 67-year-old woman in the face as she exited a subway train in New York’s East Village, breaking her nose and fracturing her orbital bone.

    He pleaded guilty, and while facing 15 months in an alternative-to-incarceration program, he skipped his court date, and had a warrant out for his arrest since February.

    Both sides of Neely’s story are true. He was a talented dancer who suffered from mental problems, and had become a criminal menace. The New York justice system repeatedly let him off the hook. Even outside of his arrests, people were posting online about personal experiences of being threatened or attacked by Neely.

    And then, on May 1, Neely was allegedly threatening passengers on a New York subway car until a former U.S. Marine intervened; he restrained Neely with a chokehold while two other men helped subdue him. After Neely lost consciousness, the men placed Neely in a recovery position, and yet, Neely died.

    Nobody was initially charged. Video of the incident, which was limited to when Neely had already been restrained, was quickly picked up by political actors to play into the country’s race narratives.

    Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) of New York wrote on Twitter a couple days later that “Jordan Neely was murdered.” She claimed he was “houseless and crying for food in a time when the city is raising rents and stripping services to militarize itself while many in power demonize the poor.”

    She said it was “disgusting” that the man who allegedly killed Neely wasn’t charged.

    Others on the far left came forward also to criticize the case as being about race, and to suggest that justice was needed, although, even among Democrats, not everyone was in agreement.

    The political attacks sounded like a dog whistle to radical groups in New York. There were no major protests like those that were common with the Black Lives Matter summer riots a few years back, although a few dozen protesters went viral when they jumped on the subway tracks and forced a Q train to slam on its brakes.

    It also turned out the protesters weren’t grassroots protesters. They were with an organization called Voices of Community Activists and Leaders, which has funding from billionaires including Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg through the FWD.us Education Fund, and radical left billionaire George Soros through his Open Society Foundations.

    It also turned out that the radical organization that staged the subway protest had previously teamed up in other protests with the Young Communist League of the Communist Party USA.

    The outright communist group also was involved in the Neely protests, and stated in a tweet, “Thank you to all our comrades who answered the call today! We’re just getting started!”

    The communist connection to the staged protests brings the whole incident full circle, right back to Ocasio-Cortez being the frontrunner in calling for charges in the case. Justine Medina, a former AOC aide, is a member of the executive committee of the New York State Communist Party, and is co-chair of the New York Young Communist League. That’s the same group that staged the subway protest.

    The People’s World website notes, “Justine Medina is a co-chair of the New York Young Communist League. She’s also been involved in Democratic Socialists of America and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s campaigns for Congress.”

    So let’s dig into this…

    • Soros finances the campaigns of radical district attorneys who let criminals off the hook.

    • A criminal is killed by people defending themselves when the city’s justice system fails.

    • A radical Congress member, whose political campaign was notably assisted by a media network with funding from Soros, comes out and calls for arrests.

    • Then, a radical group funded by Soros stages a protest, while being backed by a communist group tied to that same politician, also calling for arrests.

    Seems to be a lot of overlap here.

    Regardless of the Soros “above and below” strategy at play, former U.S. Marine Daniel Penny was arrested in Neely’s death. He’s now facing a felony charge of second-degree manslaughter, although he holds that he acted in self-defense.

    So is this really about crime, then? Is it really about justice? Or is it about something else? Well, it’s not clear. But what we can say is that the narratives aren’t lining up. Many politicians who called for Penny’s arrest were simultaneously criticizing the use of justice. They were noting that young men are being sent to prison, when, in reality, many just need help. Yet, they did this while also calling for Penny to be sent to prison.

    Others were more direct. Others suggested this may not be about manslaughter, or about justice, or even about mental health. Instead, they’re saying this is about race.

    New York Mayor Eric Adams flip-flopped on that point. He first criticized AOC for claiming that Penny murdered Neely. Then, Adams brought race-based narratives to the case.

    For conservatives, it’s not about race. Instead, it’s about whether you’re allowed to defend yourself. The case has become a symbol of what’s wrong with defunding the police, and about whether people are being selectively prosecuted, based not on crime, but on the color of their skin.

    When people such as Adams make it about race, other people start wondering if the case would be treated differently if race wasn’t an issue.

    That’s partly why people like musician Kid Rock donated $5,000 to Penny’s defense fund, criticized New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg, and declared that Penny is a hero. It’s why even politicians such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are getting on board to fundraise for Penny.

    And it’s also why people are now bringing up the idea of self-defense. Al Sharpton, for example, was stating that if Penny wasn’t charged, it would encourage others to become vigilantes.

    This is the point where many cities in the United States find themselves. The common view, at least among conservatives, is this: Police have been made unable to do their jobs, the courts appear to have a swinging door, and violent individuals such as Neely are allowed to attack, harass, and generally menace people.

    So, if nobody will protect you, what are your options? Even if you see others being attacked or harassed, should you do anything to help them? Should you allow them to be attacked? Or do you want to risk going to prison simply for stepping up to help?

    In 2021, we watched in shock at what took place in the Philadelphia area, when a woman was raped on a train. Passengers did nothing to help her. They listened to her cries, and they allowed it to happen. It raised the question of what we become as a society if people don’t stand up against evil, what happens when good people don’t come forward? And even more so, what will we become when good people aren’t allowed to intervene?

    In the natural world, self-defense is written into the DNA of life. Even bugs have the means to defend themselves. Nearly every creature on earth has been given by God a means to defend itself, whether claws, or teeth, or stingers, or other means.

    Humans create tools, like swords and guns, to defend ourselves. And this has held true throughout all human history. The right to self-defense is the right to life. And the right to guard life is one the main pillars of law.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 19:30

  • Exxon Crushes Progressive Dreams That "Net Zero" Has Any Chance By 2050: It Would Mean Collapse In "Global Standard Of Living"
    Exxon Crushes Progressive Dreams That “Net Zero” Has Any Chance By 2050: It Would Mean Collapse In “Global Standard Of Living”

    In a world of suffocating snowflakery, ESG hypocrisy and, well… Tranheuser Busch, a corporation telling the truth without fear of reprisals from the Open Society-funded virtue signaling cabal is rarer than an mRNA-injected, genetically engineered hen’s teeth. And yet that’s what the company hated by every progressive, Exxon Mobil, did this week when it became the first corporation to denounce the insidious and laughable claims that “net zero” is even a remote possibility by 2050.

    The US supermajor pushed back against investors pressing the company to report on the risks to its business from restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions and potential environmental disasters when in a reply to proxy advisor Glass Lewis, Exxon said the prospect of the world achieving net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 is remote and should not be further evaluated in its financial statements.

    A shareholder proposal seeking a report on the cost of having to abandon projects faces a shareholder vote on May 31. Glass Lewis backed the initiative, concluding Exxon could face material financial risks from the net-zero scenario.

    Exxon disagreed, and said the world is not on a path to achieve net-zero emissions in 2050 as limiting energy production to levels below consumption demand would lead to a spike in energy prices, as observed in Europe following oil sanctions against Russia over Ukraine.

    Exxon, is of course, correct however that won’t stop the green fanatics from beating the drum that somehow the world can transition to “green” energy (at a cost of some $150 trillion mind you) in the next 27 years without an energy cataclysm. 

    At the heart of the issue is the 2050 net-zero emissions (NZE) scenario of the International Energy Agency (IEA) which envisions a path to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. For the NZE scenario to be met, the IEA had hilariously said new oil exploration would have to have stopped in 2021 and nations would have to switch to renewable energy from fossil fuels (good luck with that). Exxon is among the companies heavily investing in new exploration to generate oil and gas for decades to come, and in retrospect, one can thank their deity of choice for Exxon’s decision to do so as opposed to sending the world back into the dark ages, an outcome which so many from the World Economic Forum seems to aspire to.

    “It is clear that the IEA NZE does not, by the scenario authors’ own assessment, meet the level of likelihood required to be considered in our financial statements,” Exxon said in a response filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday.

    “It is highly unlikely that society would accept the degradation in global standard of living required to permanently achieve a scenario like the IEA NZE,” Exxon said in dismissing the proposal.

    Source: Exxon

    Exxon also rebutted the woke proxy firm’s recommendation that it evaluate the impacts of a worst-case oil spill at its offshore Guyanese oil platforms. Exxon leads a consortium responsible for all of Guyana’s offshore oil production and its board has recommended against the proposal.

    “The requested report clearly would not provide new, decision-useful information,” Exxon said, adding the shareholder request “ignore(s) the time, additional cost, and resources every report takes for the company to prepare.”

    As for the IEA, instead of targeting those companies – which despite every effort by the senile US president to drain the US SPR and make the country once again dependent on outside energy sources – are doing everything in their power to retain US energy independence, perhaps it should bring its message to downtown Beijing. We are confident that China will listen to their pimply teenager-inspired “proposals” in a cool, calm and collected manner.

    Source: Our world in data

     

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 19:00

  • G-7 Leaders Respond To China’s Economic Bullying At Hiroshima Summit, Warn Of 'Consequences'
    G-7 Leaders Respond To China’s Economic Bullying At Hiroshima Summit, Warn Of ‘Consequences’

    Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Economic security was a major focus on the second day of the Group of Seven (G-7) summit in Hiroshima, with leaders outlining actions to counter Beijing’s “economic coercion” and non-market practices.

    The G-7 countries—the United States, the UK, Japan, Canada, Germany, France, and Italy—announced on May 20 their plan to address the “disturbing rise in incidents of economic coercion.”

    “We will work together to ensure that attempts to weaponize economic dependencies by forcing G7 members and our partners, including small economies to comply and conform will fail and face consequences,” the G-7 leaders’ statement on economic security read.

    “We express serious concern over economic coercion and call on all countries to refrain from its use.”

    (L-R) Italy’s Primer Minister Giorgia Meloni, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, U.S. President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen participate in a family photo with G7 leaders before their working lunch meeting on economic security at the Grand Prince Hotel in Hiroshima on May 20, 2023. (Jonathan Ernst/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

    National security advisor Jake Sullivan, who briefed reporters on May 20 on the sidelines of the G-7 Summit, said the leaders agreed to deploy “a common set of tools” to confront China’s economic coercion.

    “These economic security tools will include steps to build resilience in our supply chains. They will also include steps to protect sensitive technology, like export controls and outbound investment measures,” Sullivan said.

    However, the leaders are emphasizing that their goal is to de-risk, not decouple from China.

    “Our policy approaches are not designed to harm China nor do we seek to thwart China’s economic progress and development,” according to the G-7 Summit communique released on May 20.

    “A growing China that plays by international rules would be of global interest. We are not decoupling or turning inwards. At the same time, we recognize that economic resilience requires de-risking and diversifying.”

    Leveraging Economic Power

    In recent years, China has increased its efforts to leverage its economic might to force political change around the world.

    For example, after Australia called for an independent investigation into the origins of COVID-19 in April 2020, the communist regime announced trade sanctions on select Australian products.

    An employee works as Australian-made wine (on display shelves on the right) at a store in Beijing on Aug. 18, 2020, the same day that the Chinese regime ramped up tensions with Australia after it launched a probe into wine imports from the country, the latest salvo in a bitter row after the Australian government called for a probe into the origins of COVID-19. (Noel Celis/AFP via Getty Images)

    The Chinese regime’s economic coercion of Australia has served as a “wake-up call” to other countries, Liz Truss, the UK’s Foreign Secretary at the time, warned.

    There have been other instances of Chinese coercion in the past, including with Japan, which saw Chinese shipments of rare earth metals blocked due to a territorial dispute in 2010. South Korea faced business boycotts from China in 2017 after installing a U.S. missile defense system. And recently, Beijing retaliated against Lithuania after it attempted to strengthen ties with Taiwan.

    China has recently pressured U.S. companies as well. For example, in reaction to the United States placing export bans on advanced semiconductors, Beijing launched a probe into memory chip company Micron. Furthermore, in March, Chinese police stormed the Beijing office of Mintz Group, an American due diligence firm, and detained five Chinese citizens working for the company. Later, Chinese police questioned employees at the Shanghai branch of Bain & Co., an American consulting firm.

    UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak warned about China’s growing economic coercion.

    “We should be clear-eyed about the growing challenge we face. China is engaged in a concerted and strategic economic contest,” Sunak said in his remarks before the meeting on May 20.

    To address these issues, the G-7 leaders have announced the formation of a new “G7 Coordination Platform on Economic Coercion.”

    The new platform “will address the growing and pernicious use of coercive economic measures to interfere in the sovereign affairs of other states,” Sunak said.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 18:30

  • Lawmakers Scrutinize Executive Bonuses At Collapsed Banks
    Lawmakers Scrutinize Executive Bonuses At Collapsed Banks

    After several years during the pandemic in which bonuses exploded higher, reality is once again bearing down on the Wall Street gravy train, as regulators target banker paydays in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s blowup and the ensuing regional banking chaos that followed. 

    Democratic lawmakers are scrutinizing executives at Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank and the pay and bonuses they earned in the time leading up to each banks’ respective implosion, Bloomberg wrote in a wrap up this week. 

    Bloomberg notes that during a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Thursday, lawmakers including Martin Gruenberg, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Michael Barr, vice chair for supervision at the Federal Reserve, and Michael Hsu, acting head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency targeted adopting new incentive-based compensation rules. 

    The rules were originally products of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act with the purpose of discouraging risk-taking in the banking sector. 

    Such risk taking led to a tsunami of withdrawals from Silicon Valley Bank, which now infamously saw more than $40 billion in deposits pulled from the bank in just a matter of hours. The pace of withdrawals “took regulators by surprise”, Bloomberg wrote, leading to the banks being taken over by the government. 

    Meanwhile, former executives from the banks have retained bonuses they “earned” in their time leading up to the collapse. They have attested that they didn’t mismanage risk, but rather that (1) the Fed put the banks in an “unprecedented” position, as SVB’s CEO testified in front of congress this week and that (2) contagion from other collapses were to blame. 

    In other words, it’s everybody’s fault but the banking executives who put their banks in such precarious positions to begin with.

    Democratic Senator Christopher Van Hollen said this week: “The bank executives manipulated profits in a way to increase their risks and made no changes to the compensation structure to account for that risk.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 18:00

  • Biden Administration's New Mortgage Policy: Unjust And Dangerous
    Biden Administration’s New Mortgage Policy: Unjust And Dangerous

    Authored by Andy Matthews via RealClear Wire,

    One of the essential lessons most of us are taught early in life is the importance of developing a sense of financial responsibility.

    Work hard to earn a good paycheck. Don’t spend more than you can afford. Save for the future.

    Eventually, following these steps will land you in a position where you can afford some of the nicer things life has to offer. Behaving in a financially responsible way isn’t always fun in the moment – but it’s well worth it when you get to reap the rewards of your good decisions later on, as you’re able to enjoy more and more of the things you want and need.

    It’s one of the most fundamental principles of our society, and it’s also rooted in one of the basic realities of human nature: Incentivize good behavior, and you’ll get more of it.

    But what happens when the incentive structure becomes inverted? We’re about to find out, because that’s what’s going to occur thanks to a new Biden administration policy that took effect on May 1.

    The new Federal Housing Finance Agency policy will force those with good credit scores to pay more for their mortgages each month, with those extra payments used to subsidize the loans of higher-risk borrowers. Experts say that homebuyers with credit scores of 680 or higher will now pay roughly $40 per month more on a home loan of $400,000, with those who make down payments of 15 to 20% hit with the highest fees. It amounts to a tax increase on the middle class, and it’s atrocious in every way imaginable.

    For starters, it is fundamentally unjust and absurd to impose a policy that punishes those who have acted responsibly, sacrificed, and worked hard toward a secure financial future for themselves and their families. That’s why I was honored to join a coalition of 34 state financial officers from around the country, led by Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity, in signing a letter to the Biden administration voicing opposition.

    But this new policy is more than simply unfair. It’s also deeply reckless. The 2008 financial crisis and mortgage meltdown offered a painful lesson in what happens when government intervenes to push those who cannot afford a home loan to take one and to undermine the critical role that credit scores play in assessing a prospective borrower’s risk level. My home state of Nevada was hit the hardest by that crisis, suffering under the highest rates of foreclosures and unemployment in the entire nation. And Nevadans will once again be put in a position of exceptional vulnerability under the Biden administration’s new policy.

    For its part, the administration defends its policy on the grounds that it’s simply trying to close a gap in house ownership between higher- and lower-income Americans. The administration also anticipates some political gain through what is merely the latest of its many wealth redistribution schemes.

    But while increasing opportunities for home ownership is a laudable goal, the right way to accomplish this is by taking steps to eliminate unnecessary regulations, reduce inflation, and bring down energy costs – not to subvert basic market principles to political considerations.

    If political advantage is what the Biden administration is indeed expecting here, they may be in for a harsh surprise. The more Americans learn about this new policy, the more they are rightly outraged and insulted that the administration would adopt a plan that perversely punishes responsible behavior and removes Americans’ incentives to manage their finances wisely and prudently.

    The administration should reverse course immediately.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 17:30

  • "Deep Level Of Corruption": Gen. Flynn Condemns FBI Following Durham Report
    “Deep Level Of Corruption”: Gen. Flynn Condemns FBI Following Durham Report

    Retired US Army Gen. Michael Flynn says that the United States needs to address the corruption revealed in the Durham report released on Monday.

    “What people need to really stay focused on is this deep, deep level of corruption in our federal government, particularly starting in the White House,” Flynn told NTD News‘ “Capitol Report” host Steve Lance.

    Durham’s report detailed corruption at the highest levels of the FBI to use a Clinton Campaign-funded propaganda dossier they knew was a hoax, in order to take down – and then smear, Donald Trump and his campaign.

    The report concluded that “neither U.S. law enforcement nor the Intelligence Community appears to have possessed any actual evidence of collusion” between the Trump campaign and Russia. The report also notes that on Aug. 3, 2016, a White House meeting between former President Obama, then-VP Joe Biden, former AG Loretta Lynch, then-CIA Director John Brennan and former FBI Director James Comey – where Brennan briefed those in the room about Clinton’s plan to undermine Trump by tying him to Russian election interference efforts.

    In response to the Durham report, the FBI said that it had taken corrective action to address the issued raised.

    Flynn says it’s BS.

    “They weren’t missteps, those were criminal acts by the highest levels of people in our FBI and other elements and other people inside of the Department of Justice,” he told NTD News. “And today that problem is not fixed. Look at what we’re learning from the whistleblowers.”

    Flynn then pointed to the FBI’s plan to infiltrate Catholic churches and other organizations in order to root out “radical-traditionalist Catholic” ideology, after a document was leaked from the FBI’s Richmond Field Office describing the endeavor. The agency has since disavowed the record, saying that it “does not meet the exacting standards” of the bureau.

    “This assault on Catholics, as an example—that’s just one example, the assault on Catholics and on the Latin Mass. I mean, that little thing alone that’s out of the Richmond office of the FBI, by the special agent in charge there,” said Flynn. “These are not things that are minor things. These are big, big deals. That’s just one example, you know, in addition to the politicization and the weaponization of the FBI that’s being additionally brought out by these whistleblowers, and it’s still ongoing.”

    Flynn thinks both FBI Director Chris Wray and Attorney General Merrick Garland are unfit to serve.

    “And I think that impeachment proceedings need to start at the highest levels of our government, and I think it needs to start right behind the Roosevelt desk in the Oval Office,” Flynn said, referring to Biden.

    The retired three-star general also weighed in over an alleged accounting error of up to $3 billion in Ukraine aid.

    “The Pentagon, always, always overestimates everything. I don’t care whether it’s food, ammunition, people, battlefield operations, battlefield casualties, they always, always overestimate,” said Flynn. “In this case, because of the scrutiny that we have, by the American people right now on everything going on from this government, particularly everything going on over in the Ukraine, they needed to, they should have done a far better job before they actually put the data together.”

    While he sees this accounting issue as part of a larger trend, Flynn said this particular accounting error has caught people’s attention because of how much money U.S. taxpayers have already given to Ukraine. -NTD

    “If it was $3 million, maybe even $30 million, nobody would—we wouldn’t be having this conversation, but $3 billion, you know, that kind of money, when you break it down to the American people—the American people are just, they’re livid about $170 billion going over to Ukraine, and God knows where it’s going, and it doesn’t look like things are going well in the war over there,” said Flynn. “So a $3 billion oversight. So now it’s like, ‘Well, where is it?’ So is there going to be investigation? Well I’m sure there will be, and then we’ll never hear anything else about it, and come to find out—it’ll be one of those dollar amounts that somebody basically walked away with.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 17:00

  • Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch Shreds Lockdown Authoritarianism
    Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch Shreds Lockdown Authoritarianism

    Via the Brownstone Institute,

    In a statement made today on a case concerning Title 42, Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch breaks the painful silence on the topic of lockdowns and mandates, and presents the truth with startling clarity.

    Importantly, this statement from the Supreme Court comes as so many other agencies, intellectuals, and journalists are in flat-out denial of what happened to the country. 

    [T]he history of this case illustrates the disruption we have experienced over the last three years in how our laws are made and our freedoms observed.

    Since March 2020, we may have experienced the greatest intrusions on civil liberties in the peacetime history of this country. Executive officials across the country issued emergency decrees on a breathtaking scale. Governors and local leaders imposed lockdown orders forcing people to remain in their homes.

    They shuttered businesses and schools public and private. They closed churches even as they allowed casinos and other favored businesses to carry on. They threatened violators not just with civil penalties but with criminal sanctions too.

    They surveilled church parking lots, recorded license plates, and issued notices warning that attendance at even outdoor services satisfying all state social-distancing and hygiene requirements could amount to criminal conduct. They divided cities and neighborhoods into color-coded zones, forced individuals to fight for their freedoms in court on emergency timetables, and then changed their color-coded schemes when defeat in court seemed imminent.

    Federal executive officials entered the act too. Not just with emergency immigration decrees. They deployed a public-health agency to regulate landlord-tenant relations nationwide.They used a workplace-safety agency to issue a vaccination mandate for most working Americans.

    They threatened to fire noncompliant employees, and warned that service members who refused to vaccinate might face dishonorable discharge and confinement. Along the way, it seems federal officials may have pressured social-media companies to suppress information about pandemic policies with which they disagreed.

    While executive officials issued new emergency decrees at a furious pace, state legislatures and Congress—the bodies normally responsible for adopting our laws—too often fell silent. Courts bound to protect our liberties addressed a few—but hardly all—of the intrusions upon them. In some cases, like this one, courts even allowed themselves to be used to perpetuate emergency public-health decrees for collateral purposes, itself a form of emergency-lawmaking-by-litigation.

    Doubtless, many lessons can be learned from this chapter in our history, and hopefully serious efforts will be made to study it. One lesson might be this: Fear and the desire for safety are powerful forces. They can lead to a clamor for action—almost any action—as long as someone does something to address a perceived threat. 

    A leader or an expert who claims he can fix everything, if only we do exactly as he says, can prove an irresistible force. We do not need to confront a bayonet, we need only a nudge, before we willingly abandon the nicety of requiring laws to be adopted by our legislative representatives and accept rule by decree. Along the way, we will accede to the loss of many cherished civil liberties—the right to worship freely, to debate public policy without censorship, to gather with friends and family, or simply to leave our homes. 

    We may even cheer on those who ask us to disregard our normal lawmaking processes and forfeit our personal freedoms. Of course, this is no new story. Even the ancients warned that democracies can degenerate toward autocracy in the face of fear.

    But maybe we have learned another lesson too. The concentration of power in the hands of so few may be efficient and sometimes popular. But it does not tend toward sound government. However wise one person or his advisors may be, that is no substitute for the wisdom of the whole of the American people that can be tapped in the legislative process.

    Decisions produced by those who indulge no criticism are rarely as good as those produced after robust and uncensored debate. Decisions announced on the fly are rarely as wise as those that come after careful deliberation. Decisions made by a few often yield unintended consequences that may be avoided when more are consulted. Autocracies have always suffered these defects. Maybe, hopefully, we have relearned these lessons too.

    In the 1970s, Congress studied the use of emergency decrees. It observed that they can allow executive authorities to tap into extraordinary powers. Congress also observed that emergency decrees have a habit of long outliving the crises that generate them; some federal emergency proclamations, Congress noted, had remained in effect for years or decades after the emergency in question had passed.

    At the same time, Congress recognized that quick unilateral executive action is sometimes necessary and permitted in our constitutional order. In an effort to balance these considerations and ensure a more normal operation of our laws and a firmer protection of our liberties, Congress adopted a number of new guardrails in the National Emergencies Act.

    Despite that law, the number of declared emergencies has only grown in the ensuing years. And it is hard not to wonder whether, after nearly a half-century and in light of our Nation’s recent experience, another look is warranted. It is hard not to wonder, too, whether state legislatures might profitably reexamine the proper scope of emergency executive powers at the state level. 

    At the very least, one can hope that the Judiciary will not soon again allow itself to be part of the problem by permitting litigants to manipulate our docket to perpetuate a decree designed for one emergency to address another. Make no mistake—decisive executive action is sometimes necessary and appropriate. But if emergency decrees promise to solve some problems, they threaten to generate others. And rule by indefinite emergency edict risks leaving all of us with a shell of a democracy and civil liberties just as hollow.

    Justice Neil Gorsuch’s opinion in Arizona v. Mayorkas marks the culmination of his three-year effort to oppose the Covid regime’s eradication of civil liberties, unequal application of law, and political favoritism. From the outset, Gorsuch remained vigilant as public officials used the pretext of Covid to augment their power and strip the citizenry of its rights in defiance of long standing constitutional principles. 

    While other justices (even some purported constitutionalists) absconded their responsibility to uphold the Bill of Rights, Gorsuch diligently defended the Constitution. This became most apparent in the Supreme Court’s cases involving religious liberty in the Covid era. 

    Beginning in May 2020, the Supreme Court heard cases challenging Covid restrictions on religious attendance across the country. The Court was divided along familiar political lines: the liberal bloc of Justices Ginsburg, Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan voted to uphold deprivations of liberty as a valid exercise of states’ police power; Justice Gorsuch led conservatives Alito, Kavanaugh, and Thomas in challenging the irrationality of the edicts; Chief Justice Roberts sided with the liberal bloc, justifying his decision by deferring to public health experts. 

    “Unelected judiciary lacks the background, competence, and expertise to assess public health and is not accountable to the people,” Roberts wrote in South Bay v. Newsom, the first Covid case to reach the Court. 

    And so the Court repeatedly upheld executive orders attacking religious liberty. In South Bay, the Court denied a California church’s request to block state restrictions on church attendance in a five to four decision. Roberts sided with the liberal bloc, urging deference to the public health apparatus as constitutional freedoms disappeared from American life. 

    In July 2020, the Court again split 5-4 and denied a church’s emergency motion for injunctive relief against Nevada’s Covid restrictions. Governor Steve Sisolak capped religious gatherings at 50 people, regardless of the precautions taken or the size of the establishment. The same order allowed for other groups, including casinos, to hold up to 500 people. The Court, with Chief Justice Roberts joining the liberal justices again, denied the motion in an unsigned motion without explanation. 

    Justice Gorsuch issued a one paragraph dissent that exposed the hypocrisy and irrationality of the Covid regime. “Under the Governor’s edict, a 10-screen ‘multiplex’ may host 500 moviegoers at any time. A casino, too, may cater to hundreds at once, with perhaps six people huddled at each craps table here and a similar number gathered around every roulette wheel there,” he wrote. But the Governor’s lockdown order imposed a 50-worshiper limit for religious gatherings, no matter the buildings’ capacities. 

    “The First Amendment prohibits such obvious discrimination against the exercise of religion,” Gorsuch wrote. “But there is no world in which the Constitution permits Nevada to favor Caesars Palace over Calvary Chapel.”

    Gorsuch understood the threat to Americans’ liberties, but he was powerless with Chief Justice Roberts cowing to the interests of the public health bureaucracy. That changed when Justice Ginsburg died in September 2020.

    The following month, Justice Barrett joined the Court and reversed the Court’s 5-4 split on religious freedom in the Covid era. The following month, the Court granted an emergency injunction to block Governor Cuomo’s executive order that limited attendance at religious services to 10 to 25 people. 

    Gorsuch was now in the majority, protecting Americans from the tyranny of unconstitutional edicts. In a concurring opinion in the New York case, he again compared restrictions on secular activities and religious gatherings; “according to the Governor, it may be unsafe to go to church, but it is always fine to pick up another bottle of wine, shop for a new bike, or spend the afternoon exploring your distal points and meridians… Who knew public health would so perfectly align with secular convenience?”

    In February 2021, California religious organizations appealed for an emergency injunction against Governor Newsom’s Covid restriction. At the time, Newsom prohibited indoor worship in certain areas and banned singing. Chief Justice Roberts, joined by Kavanaugh and Barrett, upheld the ban on singing but overturned the capacity limits.

    Gorsuch wrote a separate opinion, joined by Thomas and Alito, that continued his critique of the authoritarian and irrational deprivations of America’s liberty as Covid entered its second year. He wrote, “Government actors have been moving the goalposts on pandemic-related sacrifices for months, adopting new benchmarks that always seem to put restoration of liberty just around the corner.” 

    Like his opinions in New York and Nevada, he focused on the disparate treatment and political favoritism behind the edicts; “if Hollywood may host a studio audience or film a singing competition while not a single soul may enter California’s churches, synagogues, and mosques, something has gone seriously awry.”

    Thursday’s opinion allowed Gorsuch to review the devastating loss of liberty Americans suffered over the 1,141 days it took to flatten the curve.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 16:30

  • Musk Demands AP Back Claims Or Retract Article Over 'Unchecked' Stolen Election Tweets
    Musk Demands AP Back Claims Or Retract Article Over ‘Unchecked’ Stolen Election Tweets

    Elon Musk has told AP to put up or shut up – after the outlet published an article alleging that “false claims of a stolen election thrive unchecked on Twitter,” refuting Musk’s claims during a CNBC interview that such claims would be fact checked on the platform.

    “Either back up your claims @AP with actual source data or retract your story,” Musk tweeted on Friday.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The May 18 article written by Ali Swenson, who previously worked at a Magneto-funded fact checking nonprofit, the Center for Public Integrity, cites the CNBC interview in which Musk said that claims of stolen election on Twitter “will be corrected, 100 percent.”

    Musk was responding to host David Faber, who asked about Twitter users claiming that the 2020 election was “rigged” or “stolen” and whether such tweets would be tagged with a community note or face other actions.

    “To be clear, I don’t think it was a stolen election,” Musk replied, with the caveat that he believes there was some election fraud.

    “By the same token, if somebody is going to say that there is never any election fraud anywhere, this is obviously false. If 100 million people vote, the probability that the fraud is zero—is zero,” he added, before noting that it’s important to strike a balance in discussions regarding election integrity.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Regardless, people in America are allowed to question the outcome of elections – like Democrats did in 2016 when Hillary Clinton kicked off her self-pity tour – so CNBC and AP and the rest of them can pound sand with that little purity test.

    According to the Associated Press article, since former President Donald Trump held a CNN town hall in which he reiterated his claims that the 2020 election was stolen, such claims have spread on Twitter.

    “Yet many such claims have thrived on Twitter in the week since former President Donald Trump spent much of a CNN town hall digging in on his lie that the 2020 election was ‘rigged’ against him,” reads Swenson’s article, which provides no evidence. “Twitter posts that amplified those false claims have thousands of shares with no visible enforcement, a review of posts on the platform shows.”

    The article cites media intelligence from firm Zignal Labs, which claims without evidence to have identified the 10 most widely shared tweets promoting a “rigged election” narrative following the town hall.

    “While Twitter has a system in place for users to add context to misleading tweets, the 10 posts, which collectively amassed more than 43,000 retweets, had no such notes attached,” AP claimed – again without evidence.

    More via the Epoch Times,

    In his town hall appearance on CNN, Trump reiterated his view that the 2020 election was stolen.

    The former president said that he performed “fantastically” in 2020, doing “far better” than in 2016 with 12 million more votes.

    “When you look at that result and when you look at what happened during that election, unless you’re a very stupid person, you see what happens,” Trump said before adding that he believes the election was “rigged.”

    “That was a rigged election, and it’s a shame that we had to go through it. It’s very bad for our country. All over the world, they looked at it, and they saw exactly what everyone else saw,” Trump said.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    He pointed to the Twitter Files disclosures as an indication of apparent collusion between the FBI and Twitter to suppress the Hunter Biden laptop story in the run-up to the election, which Trump said, “made a big difference.”

    The seventh installment of the Musk-endorsed Twitter Files claimed that there was an “organized effort” on the part of federal law enforcement to target social media companies that reported on the explosive Hunter Biden laptop story, which was first published by the New York Post.

    Hunter Biden Laptop Story

    In the run-up to the 2020 election, the New York Post published a story about a laptop abandoned at a computer repair shop that purportedly belonged to Hunter Biden and contained emails suggesting that then-candidate Joe Biden had knowledge of, and was allegedly involved in, his son’s foreign business dealings.

    The New York Post’s story titled “Smoking-gun Email Reveals How Hunter Biden Introduced Ukrainian Businessman to VP Dad” was published on Oct. 14, 2020.

    Twitter first prevented sharing of the story for 24 hours before reversing the decision. However, the story did not circulate on the platform for weeks because of a policy requiring the original poster to delete and repost the original tweet.

    Polling has indicated that if the public had been aware of the suppressed story ahead of the election, it may have cost then presidential candidate Joe Biden several percentage points of voters—possibly enough to thwart his bid for the White House.

    “In Twitter Files #7, we present evidence pointing to an organized effort by representatives of the intelligence community (IC), aimed at senior executives at news and social media companies, to discredit leaked information about Hunter Biden before and after it was published,” wrote author Michael Shellenberger, who released screenshots on Dec. 19, 2022, that appeared to show message exchanges between top Twitter officials and the FBI in October 2020.

    The FBI told The Epoch Times in an earlier emailed statement that it had only offered general warnings to Twitter about foreign election interference and never pushed for the platform to suppress the Hunter Biden laptop story.

    Former Twitter executives have conceded that they made a mistake by blocking the Hunter Biden laptop story but denied that they were pressured to suppress the story by law enforcement.

    However, documents filed with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) show that the FBI warned Twitter explicitly of a “hack-and-leak operation involving Hunter Biden” ahead of the 2020 presidential election.

    Twitter’s former head of site integrity Yoel Roth made the remarks in a signed declaration (pdf) attached to a Dec. 21, 2020 letter to the FEC’s Office of Complaints Examination and Legal Administration on behalf of Twitter.

    Roth said in the attached declaration that he was told by the FBI at a series of meetings ahead of the 2020 election that the agency warned of the threat of hacked materials being distributed on social media platforms.

    “I was told in these meetings that the intelligence community expected that individuals associated with political campaigns would be subject to hacking attacks and that material obtained through those hacking attacks would likely be disseminated over social media platforms, including Twitter,” Roth stated in the declaration.

    “I also learned in these meetings that there were rumors that a hack-and-leak operation would involve Hunter Biden,” Roth added.

    Roth said that Twitter’s Site Integrity Team determined that the New York Post’s articles about the laptop violated the platform’s policies on hacked materials and Twitter took action to suppress the distribution of posts sharing the articles.

    He later acknowledged that it was a mistake for Twitter to suppress the Hunter Biden laptop story.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 16:00

  • Counter-Disinformation: The New Snake Oil
    Counter-Disinformation: The New Snake Oil

    Authored by Tom Wyatt via Racket News,

    The San Diego Convention Center was packed with the defense industry elite. Boeing, Northrup Grumman, Booz Allen Hamilton, and a myriad of other arms industry salesmen, hungry to peddle their wares. WEST Conference 2023 is billed as the “premier naval conference and exposition on the West Coast.” A collective of military leaders and titans of the defense industry, intermingled in incestuous harmony.

    The WEST 2023 conference in San Diego.

    It was a world with which I was well acquainted. After all, I had spent the past fifteen years in the Navy as a Special Warfare Boat Operator, using tools and weapons built by these very defense companies. My call to service came unexpectedly at the tail end of my high school senior year. I left for bootcamp on Valentine’s Day, 2007, and immediately entered the world of Naval Special Warfare upon completion. While the rest of my graduating class received tutelage at universities around the country, mine came by way of the military elite. Over a decade and a half, I received an education in Special Reconnaissance, Unconventional Warfare and tradecraft.

    Many of the friends and former colleagues I met along the way now worked for these defense contractors, and perhaps, in another life, I’d be a participant in this conference. As it turned out, I was there as a spectator only.

    I watched as a sea of suits and lanyards moved in waves throughout the lobby outside the convention floor. Thousands of exhibitors and participants waited in line to get their credentials, exchanging cards and networking as they sized up the competition. As I surveyed the crowd, I noticed something familiar in the attendees’ faces. There was a look of out-of-place discomfort. Tattoos peeking out of cuffs and collars of the business attire their bodies seemed to be rejecting. It was the look of the defense industry’s freshman class, those who had just made the leap from serving in the armed forces to being arms proliferators.

    The conference embodied the idea of the military industrial complex’s self-licking ice cream cone structure. There was no discernible line between merchandiser and consumer, just a single organism supporting itself.

    In 2021, the Revolving Door Project released a report titled “The Military-Industrial-Think Tank Complex: Conflict of Interest at the Center for a New American Security,” that trained a troubling spotlight on one of the most prominent defense-minded think tanks. 

    According to its website, the Center for a New American Society (CNAS) “is an independent, bipartisan, nonprofit organization that develops strong, pragmatic, and principled national security and defense policies.” The defense industry-funded group claims to “elevate the national security debate” by providing innovative research to policymakers and experts in the field. But given the whiff of defense industry influence around the organization, its high-level engagement with Washington’s most powerful figures raises numerous red flags. 

    A major point of concern presented by the Revolving Door Project, was, ironically CNAS’ own revolving door. According to the report, there are “16 CNAS alumni who have been selected for foreign policy and national security policy-making positions in the Biden administration.” Among them: Avril Haines, a former CNAS Board of Directors member who became Biden’s Director of National Intelligence in 2021, and Colin Kahl, the current Undersecretary of Defense Policy, a former CNAS Senior Fellow. 

    The report also includes instances of the think tank pushing agendas that directly benefit its membership, such as the collusion between CNAS and the United Arab Emirates to promote relaxed restrictions for exporting US drones. Not surprisingly, CNAS board member Neal Blue’s company, General Atomic, had an existing contract worth nearly $200 million with the UAE for drone production. The report reads:

    CNAS receives large contributions directly from defense contractors, foreign governments, and the US government; publishes research and press material that frequently supports the interests of its sponsors without proper disclosure; and even gives its financial sponsors an official oversight role in helping to shape the organization’s research.

    WEST 2023 offered yet another venue for private companies to seek out such connections, pushing an agenda that “supports the interests” of the defense industry–a kind of speed dating for the military industrial complex. And while the familiar mechanisms of war, like drones and submarines, were on display, the spotlight was on weapons of the information space.

    Panel after panel featured cybersecurity and electronic warfare experts giving discussions on information operations, artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities. The conference seemed to embody the new horizon for the defense industry: Information Warfare. 

    Counter-Terrorism to Great Power Competition

    “In hindsight, we should’ve never taken our eye off the Great Power Competition,” the counter-disinformation expert said, referring to the historical focus on traditional preparation for conflict against countries like China and Russia. Her mastery of the subject was honed over a decade through the study of forensic psychology and counter-extremism strategies. She had worked across the public and private sectors, countering the dangerous narratives of violent extremists.

    At the end of World War II, the power that had previously been distributed across multiple nations was now consolidated by the US and Soviet Union. American foreign policy entered the era of Great Power Competition (GPC), a contest for global dominance and influence pitting the two former allies in a Highlander-style deathmatch to see who prevailed as the one true superpower. After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the US focused on maintaining this strategic edge, until a decade later when the towers fell. 

    After 9/11, the US reoriented its foreign policy around a new acronym: GWOT (Global War on Terror). The Spy vs. Spy tactics of the Cold War were obsolete now that the deadly effects of adversarial narratives had been demonstrated. While propaganda used by the Soviet Union (and the US, for that matter) was aimed at deceiving, disrupting and undermining the adversary, terrorist organizations focused their messaging campaigns on radicalization, targeting at-risk Muslim communities into armies of holy warriors. 

    The seemingly archaic, global network of radical Islamists tapped into the far-reaching technology of the world wide web to spread their message and indoctrinate would-be jihadists. To combat this ideological plague, the US began crafting counter-messaging tools and methodologies, giving birth to what would become an updated version of a counter-disinformation industry that had existed as far back as 1942, when Voice of America began broadcasting counter-narratives into Nazi Germany. These efforts ranged from a “whac-a-mole” style process of detecting and eliminating terrorist propaganda to enlisting moderate Muslim leaders to push a counter-message.

    A 1947 Voice of America broadcast

    It’s no revelation that you can’t carpet bomb an ideology, so while the concept of fighting extremist narratives online to tamp down on global terrorism seems logical on its face, according to the industry expert I interviewed, “In practice, it’s not very effective.” 

    This sentiment was affirmed by another expert in countering extremist narratives, Caroline Moreno, who formerly ran the counter-terrorism training program at the FBI Academy in Quantico, VA. “Counter messaging, when it comes from the US government, loses its credibility,” said Moreno. 

    It is understandable, in an unfamiliar world of ideology-based violence and radicalization, that some trial and error would occur along the path to understanding such a complex adversary. Tactics, of course, are developed over time and situationally based. Before 9/11, the military was focused on the most logical adversary, a conventional state actor, but had to adapt to the irregular warfare landscape of counter-terrorism operations.

    The operators and ground-pounders on the frontlines get a real-world education in the necessary fluidity of such tactics, but the military monolith is often slow to adopt lessons gleaned from battle. To further complicate the matter, there are always plenty of defense industry opportunists promoting their tactics as dogma, such as the failed “hearts and minds” approach to counterinsurgency, further setting back any notion of catching up with the current threat, and the shift from the war on terror to the GPC has only exacerbated this strategic buffering. 

    The shift from counter-terrorism to GPC occurred long before the official end of the GWOT. Although some within the defense and intelligence communities saw the writing on the wall for some time, the declared pivot came in 2018 with the new National Defense Strategy, issued by then Secretary of Defense James Mattis.

    Former Defense Secretary James Mattis

    “Long-term strategic competitions with China and Russia,” the guidance reads,” are the principal priorities for the Department [of Defense].”

    The Pentagon, in other words, was announcing plans to take us back to a Cold War mindset. In a space-race type fashion, we would need to outfox the competition in arms, technology and influence in order to maintain our world power monopoly. Unfortunately, our drawdown in the Middle East and the swan song of the war on terror would mean a natural decrease in the defense budget, hampering any lofty dreams of competition.

    Unless, of course, the new threat required a level of spending generally associated with kinetic warfare. A little thing like the absence of active armed conflict shouldn’t stop the growth of the defense industry. And in that spirit, the Pentagon’s budget reached its highest level last year, a whopping $816 billion. 

    A Brief PRIMER on Information Operations

    During my final six years of service, in a move that seemed to parallel the national defense strategy, I shifted from Counter-Terrorism focused special boat operations to conducting sensitive intelligence activities aimed at the Great Power Competition. Our task was to clandestinely prepare the battlespace, establishing an operational environment that would give us an advantage in the event of a hot war, but more importantly, shaping the environment so that our adversary couldn’t do the same. Our best tool in this endeavor was Information Operations.

    A Joint Chiefs of Staff publication on Information Operations, Joint Publication 3-13, reads:

    Information Operations (IO) are described as the integrated employment of electronic warfare (EW), computer network operations (CNO), psychological operations (PSYOP), military deception (MILDEC), and operations security (OPSEC), in concert with specific supporting and related capabilities, to influence, disrupt, corrupt, or usurp adversarial human and automated decision making while protecting our own.

    I’d left this world behind when I found myself at WEST 2023. Now a mere observer of the military industrial complex, I picked up a copy of Signal to orient myself to the occasion. Signal is the official magazine of the Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, or AFCEA, one of WEST 2023’s many sponsors. In fact, the conference had so many sponsors that it developed a funder caste system, segregating the donors into categories such as Premier, Platinum, Gold and Silver. 

    Amongst defense heavyweights Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics, was a lesser-known company down in the silver category named Primer. Primer is one of the many artificial intelligence and machine learning-focused companies orbiting the defense industry. Aside from AT&T, the silver sponsors blended together in an indistinguishable list of obscure defense contractors, and perhaps Primer would’ve remained obscure, too, had the company not acquired Yonder, an Austin, Texas-based “information integrity” company.

    Primer had already entered the disinformation space, in 2020, when it won a Small Business Innovation Research, or SBIR, contract with the Air Force and Special Operation Command, SOCOM, to develop the first machine learning platform to automatically identify and assess suspected disinformation. This evolution into the disinformation world was fully realized with its 2022 acquisition of Yonder, an “information integrity” company focused on detecting and disrupting disinformation campaigns online.

    Yonder, originally New Knowledge, rose to prominence when they co-authored a report to the Senate Intelligence Committee on Russian influence campaigns leading up to the 2016 Presidential election. Ironically, New Knowledge’s own foray into election meddling would make them a household name. During the 2017 Alabama Senate race, New Knowledge’s CEO, Jonathon Morgan, created a fake Facebook page and Twitter “botnet” with the intent of persuading votes for the Democratic candidate. 

    “We orchestrated an elaborate ‘false flag’ operation that planted the idea that the Moore campaign was amplified on social media by a Russian botnet,” said an internal document from Morgan’s project. 

    In another bit of controversy, New Knowledge, in the wake of the alleged Russian election meddling of 2016, helped develop a disinformation dashboard with the German Marshall Fund’s Alliance for Securing Democracy, or ASD. The dashboard, named Hamilton 68, acted as a repository for supposed Twitter accounts linked to Russian influence operatives, with access limited to a select few. This was ASD’s golden tablet, and only journalists and academics could wield the seer stone. 

    Unfortunately for all involved, including the media who treated the information as gospel, the dashboard proved most successful at identifying overzealous conservatives from middle America. This legacy, and all its implications, came part and parcel with Yonder’s acquisition.

    In Primer’s catalog of machine learning products, Yonder is billed as a tool capable of identifying bad actors and narrative manipulation — Primer’s very own weapon against Information Operations. 

    Disinformation, propaganda, active measures — whatever you call it, the name of the game is Information Operations, or IO. In a war where battles are left of boom–where the strategy is to manipulate the information landscape to gain a competitive advantage over your adversary–a cat-and-mouse-like game develops.  But with the advent of the internet, and its compounding stores of information, the task of determining what is real and what is fake is too much to ask of us mere mortals. Thus the need for a Yonder-style solution.

    “I’m not a fan of the term disinformation,” the counter-disinformation expert said. 

    The statement came as a bit of throat clearing for the industry expert, as she digressed into a brief indictment of the trade she very much believes in.

    “It’s been politicized. Even though disinformation has a distinct definition, it’s now being used as a label for any unwelcome information that someone doesn’t like, even when that information is true.” 

    A new industry has developed out of the great disinformation scare. A mishmash of government, academic and private industry experts, come together to identify what is true, and what isn’t. Or at least their idea of what they would like to be true and not true. 

    Most, if not all, countries dabble in information manipulation, not to mention non-state tricksters and deception artists, so it makes sense that you would need a cross-functional team of experts for such an undertaking. And given the implications of an information governing body, a kind of truth authority, you would damn well expect that all parties involved would be aboveboard.  

    But…

    “Any industry has hucksters,” the expert said.

    The term huckster, perhaps because of its old world feel, brought to mind a scene from the Clint Eastwood film The Outlaw Josey Wales:

    The camera pans across a dusty frontier town as a carpetbagging salesman in a white suit holds the attention of a crowd, proselytizing about his magic elixir.

    “What’s in it?” a man from the crowd asks.

    “Ehh…I don’t know, various things. I’m only the salesman,” the man in the white suit replies.

    He looks the salesman up and down.

    “You drink it,” the man says as he walks off.

    The man in white looks shaken by the question. He recomposes himself before returning to the crowd.

    “Well, what can you expect from a non-believer?”

    Enter the New Snake Oil Salesman

    “You can charge more if you call it information operations,” said one veteran, working in commercial Information Operations. He asked that I not reveal the company he works for but needless to say, it is one of the many government contracted companies peddling AI driven counter-disinformation products.

    His voice was flat with a dry, matter of fact delivery. There was no surprise in this revelation, not for him at least.

    “And the higher the clearance level [of the project], the more money.”

    The second part was less surprising. Anyone familiar with government contracts will share my lack of shock. It has been my experience that government contracts are reliably unreliable. The only thing you can count on is a cronyistic leveraging of relationships within the Department of Defense (DOD). 

    One former Primer employee referred to this as the “kabuki theater”: A vague request from the government, limited by over-classification and reluctance to “give too much away,” followed by a lavish set of promises from the contract winner, despite not having the specificity to deliver a quality product. These hollow requests make it impossible for the company to even know if they can deliver their empty promises. 

    “We need a machine learning tool, capable of dissecting media posts to identify and catalog state sponsored disinformation,” a DOD contracting officer might say to a Primer account executive. 

    “What systems will this work on?” the account executive asks.

    “Classified ones.”

    “Can we have access to them? It will help us.”

    “Nope, classified.”

    “Can we at least…”

    “Nope. Here’s $10 million, good luck!”

    The end result is just what you’d expect: an overly expensive useless doodad. Any oversight from the requesting agency is unlikely to catch this before it’s too late, given they rarely have the technical expertise to know what they are asking for in the first place. 

    “I don’t even use my company’s products,” the IO expert said, “I don’t find any of it useful.”

    Even though his work is in information operations, he says it is more akin to public relations than traditional IO, just layered in secrecy for effect. This was not the first time I’d heard the comparison to the PR/ marketing world. As a matter of fact, the counter-disinformation expert suggested that many of the tools marketed to counter disinformation are simply recycled marketing products. Companies use social listening software, designed to analyze consumer wants by monitoring their online behavior, and marketing tools to construct the perfect narrative to sell their product. So to detect “bad” narratives, one only has to reverse engineer the process.

    “Marketers use these types of social listening tools to understand who their target audience is, how to best reach them, and how best to craft a viral message. Analysts can use them to understand how state-sponsored messages traverse across the internet, hopping from platform to platform, and if they’re resonating with target audiences,” the counter-disinformation expert said.

    So what? Many popular products were originally meant for some other use. Viagra was supposed to lower blood pressure, now it just redirects it. What’s the problem in finding a secondary use for a product that already exists? Nothing, provided you don’t make outlandish claims about the “new” product.

    “With Yonder, you can slice through streams of social media to gain contextual intelligence on narratives – including their authenticity and likely trajectory of amplification…Understanding the intent, affiliations, and influence of adversarial networks provides you with critical insight into emerging topics and events before they go viral.”

    Other companies in the counter-disinformation industry, like Graphika, Two Six Technologies and PeakMetrics, make similar claims using comparable marketing terminology for their AI driven products. It turns out, however, that regardless of the efficacy of these tools, the Defense Department is not equipped to handle them.

    “The tech solutions aren’t all that great,” the IO expert said. “The DOD isn’t advanced enough, doesn’t have the infrastructure to keep up with the contracted solutions”. The bureaucracy of DOD acquisitions leaves the military in a perpetual state of obsolescence, always behind the powercurve of technology and innovation of their defense industry counterparts.  

    “The US is doing a shit job at [countering] disinformation,” the IO expert said, in another bit of optimistic revelation.

    One problem is the lack of organization in the effort. While government agencies like the Department of State’s Global Engagement Center (GEC) claim to “direct, lead, synchronize, integrate, and coordinate U.S. Federal Government efforts to recognize, understand, expose, and counter foreign state and non-state propaganda and disinformation,” the reality is a scattered series of efforts across the government and private entities. This resulting chaos is exacerbated by the fact that the GEC is largely staffed by Foreign Service Officers and contractors, who typically don’t have a background or deep understanding of IO or disinformation.

    There are, of course, actual IO professionals in the space, both on the government and private side of things. These subject matter experts are a hot commodity in the task saturated world of the counter-disinformation industry, but that doesn’t mean that any IO hack can make the grade. To ensure they get the very elite, the industry has stringent requirements: X number of years as an IO expert, an active Top Secret security clearance, SCIF (sensitive compartmentalized information facility) access, and, of course, the ever-important connections to the right people. What you end up with is a small pool of the same industry experts, playing a game of musical chairs from place to place, ensuring the same entrenched mindset manifests across all aspects of the industry.

    A Collective Paranoia

    The military is a paranoid organization. If you need proof, look no further than the posters plastered all over military installations.

    “Loose lips…might sink ships,” reads one poster.

    “He’s Watching You,” reads another. 

    The paranoia, however, is justifiable in many instances. Being the most powerful military inspires competition, and competition can be ugly. Espionage, sabotage and propaganda are always on the menu of adversary tactics to deceive and compromise.

    The modern disinformation scare has, no doubt, exacerbated this paranoia. Healthy suspicion, the kind that keeps the evildoers at bay, sometimes turns toxic, resulting in operational paralysis and rampant mistrust, setting off a chain of reactionary measures run amuck. Since the military is reactive by nature, only really employed when there is a tangible threat, our tactics to disrupt the flow of disinformation are inherently reactive as well. 

    It is due to this failed strategy that the counter-disinformation expert recommends a more proactive approach to countering, or more appropriately, preventing the fallout from potential disinformation campaigns. Her recommendations: media literacy and civic engagement. 

    A more critical media consumer, although hard to imagine at the moment, isn’t a bridge too far, yet the civic engagement angle seems to be. As skeptical as people are of the media, it pales in comparison to the distrust many Americans have for the government. But rather than entertain ideas of how to rebuild that trust, and possibly embolden local leaders and everyday citizens to take ownership of their relationship with the information they ingest and propagate, Washington seems content with deflecting the blame onto a third party.  But for any of it to work, the two recommendations would need to be approached in tandem.

    “The majority of actions in the ‘proactive’ realm revolve around making people aware of the potential for misleading/manipulated information and encouraging them to engage critically with the content they consume,” the expert explains.

    To support her claim, she directs attention to Taiwan, who reportedly receives more fake news than any other country. Rather than succumb to the overwhelming disinformation campaign, or use artificial intelligence to detect and dismantle it, Taiwan employs the counter-disinformation experts’ proactive strategy.

    To achieve this, Taiwan partners with Non-Government Organizations, or NGOs, to promote early age media literacy, which the Ministry of Education has incorporated into its teaching guidelines, along with creating fact checking tools for messaging apps and social media. It is hard to know whether these tools are any more successful than the myriad of ones offered by the burgeoning counter-disinformation industry, but Taiwan’s proactive measures signal a move in a better direction. 

    Former Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Chris Krebs, an architect of modern DHS anti-disinformation policies.

    Perhaps initiatives like this, employed in the US and globally, can put an end to the counter-disinformation industry. It is, after all, beginning to show cracks. The recent dismantling of the Misinformation, Disinformation and Malinformation subcommittee, the murky remnants of the Department of Homeland Security’s failed Disinformation Governance Board, indicates a possible sea change. No doubt a more malevolent entity will take its place, but maybe, just maybe, this represents a retreat from the manic steps towards an Orwellian nightmare.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 15:30

  • 2023: Echoes Of 1973
    2023: Echoes Of 1973

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    So what’s changed? Everything, but mostly beneath the surface churn of circus and theater.

    2023 is echoing 1973 in potentially consequential ways.. It’s not just one year, of course; the entire era from 2019 echoes the era that started in 1969, when the second-order effects of postwar policies finally started kicking in.

    Consider these similarities / echoes:

    1. Major shifts in global capital and trade flows that attracted little notice start to matter in terms of currency valuations, inflation, monetary and fiscal policy and geopolitics: check.

    2. After decades of modest inflation, inflation not only rises but is sticky rather than transitory: check.

    3. Major shifts in the power structure of global oil markets: check.

    4. Cultural and social shifts become divisive, reaching destructive extremes: check.

    5. A global superpower is ensnared in a hot war in which the other side is supplied by a superpower rival: check.

    6. Political scandals upend the cozy arrangements of political elites: check.

    7. A new wave of geopolitical rivalries arise between allies and rivals alike: check.

    8. Stock and bond markets keep rallying like nothing’s changed, but since things have changed, each rally fails: check.

    Let’s focus on #8: market participants continue assuming that the past 15 years are an accurate guide to the next 15 years, unable or unwilling to face the enormity of the changes that have already occurred in the fundamental structures of state and private-sector finance and the economy. (I discuss these in my book Global Crisis, National Renewal.)

    These shifts guarantee the next 15 years will not follow the low-risk scripts of the past 15 years. I’ve explained here many times that systems have their own dynamics, and so they don’t respond to our desires or opinions or our policy tweaks. No matter how many policy tweaks you throw at diminishing returns, for example, returns still diminish–though you can mask this reality temporarily behind extremes of stimulus and other financial sleight of hand.

    Tightly bound systems, i.e. highly centralized systems, unravel far more abruptly than loosely bound systems, no matter how many fiscal or monetary policy tweaks you throw at the system.

    Path dependency and dependency chains direct what happens next and constrain policy options no matter how many policy tweaks you throw at the system.

    Emergent systems exhibit characteristics that are different from those exhibited by each of the component systems. This means that we can combine financial “innovations” that generate X and economic policies that generate Y and end up with Z (for example, the whole shebang collapses in a heap.) What If the Whole Shebang Unravels?

    Emergent systems exhibit characteristics that are different from those exhibited by each of the component systems.no matter how many policy tweaks you throw at the system because policy tweaks don’t actually add any meaningful feedback loops or change the tightly bound centralized system. All the tweaks can do is modify a parameter here or there–meaningless to the fundamental dynamics of the system as a whole.

    What’s different now is our ability to make realistic assessments has effectively collapsed. As a society and economy, we only seem capable of careening between two states:

    1. Complacency / denial

    2. Panic

    Neither are useful in problem-solving. Rather, both are toxic to problem-solving. Not only do we face an inter-connected tangle of emergent problems, we’ve frittered away our institutional and cultural ability to make realistic assessments, solve the problems in practical, pragmatic ways and agree to share the necessary sacrifices to get the train back on the tracks.

    The loss of our collective ability to solve problems means every problem is now unresolvable. The systems dynamics that will play out in the next 15 years are beyond our feeble control, our feeble understanding and our hubristic blindness to our own incapacity to actually solve difficult real-world problems that demand steep costs and long-term sacrifices.

    Note that stocks topped out in April 1973 and then crashed for a couple of years. It’s May 2023, but given the 50-year time span, that maps almost perfectly.

    The world has changed, but punters and speculators are still chasing the same old sectors, plays and strategies. They will continue to do so, very like for a decade or so, as in the 1970s, until they’ve exhausted their capital or have given up and exited the casino with whatever they still own.

    Governments, meanwhile, will do whatever it takes to protect their powers and elites, so the rules will change overnight and what was sacrosanct yesterday is today illegal. Those who exited the previous era with fortunes will find targets have been drawn on their backs (just ask Jack Ma how this works).

    Niceties such as “ownership”–such a slippery term, actually–will be jettisoned as essential resources are expropriated, along with the wealth parked by foreigners, and any other tempting stashes of concentrated capital.

    So what’s changed? Everything, but mostly beneath the surface churn of circus and theater. There is no ideal historical script that tracks the present exactly, but in rough outline, the 1970s might prove remarkable useful as a guide.

    *  *  *

    My new book is now available at a 10% discount ($8.95 ebook, $18 print): Self-Reliance in the 21st Century.  Read the first chapter for free (PDF)

    Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 15:30

  • Russia Issues List Of 500 Americans Under Sanctions, Including Obama & Stephen Colbert
    Russia Issues List Of 500 Americans Under Sanctions, Including Obama & Stephen Colbert

    Russia has hit back at the International Criminal Court (ICC) after in March it issued a warrant for the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin, which quickly resulted in a handful of European countries saying they would willingly enforce it if Putin ever landed in their territory.

    Moscow has now issued its own arrest warrant for top prosecutor at the Hague-based court Karim Khan. Russia’s Interior Ministry even officially added his photograph and file to its “wanted list” in the ministry’s database on Friday. This came also amid travel sanctions announced against a massive list of Americans and top officials.

    Khan is a citizen of the United Kingdom, and Russia previously warned he was being investigated for “criminal prosecution of a person known to be innocent” – a reference to Putin and the ICC’s arrest warrant. 

    However, the new wanted notice didn’t specify Khan’s offense. These tit-for-tat warrants are of course largely symbolic, but could possibly make international travel plans a matter of extra planning and caution, given Khan is now effectively banned from ever entering (or perhaps flying over) Russian territory, where he would be arrested.

    The ICC warrant against Putin, at the same time, makes the possibility of diplomacy and dialogue ever more distant. 

    Russia has also just announced a massive and growing list of Americans barred from ever entering the country, as The Washington Times details: 

    Former President Barack Obama, late-night television hosts, lawmakers and journalists, including from The Washington Times, are among “500 Americans” that Russia has banned from entering the country.

    Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the move was made “in a response to the regularly anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the Joe Biden administration.” 

    The Foreign Ministry said the list – which includes 45 members of the U.S. House, Sens. J.D. Vance of Ohio, Katie Britt of Alabama and Eric Schmit of Missouri – was composed of people who spread Russophobia, and supplied Ukraine with arms.

    Jeffrey Scott Shapiro, a columnist and commentary section editor at The Washington Times, was among the blackballed members of the media. Nick Paton Walsh, a CNN reporter and British citizen, was on the list.

    Late-night comedians Jimmy Kimmell, Stephen Colbert and Seth Meyers are also on the list, along with former US Ambassador Jon Huntsman.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Currently, President Biden and other world leaders are meeting in Hiroshima, Japan for the G7 summit, where Ukraine’s President Zelensky is present as well. High on the agenda is freshly expanded Russian sanctions, and discussions underway over how to further punish Moscow for the Ukraine war.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 15:00

  • Energy Commissioner Warns Of 'Major Threats' To Power Grid
    Energy Commissioner Warns Of ‘Major Threats’ To Power Grid

    Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Hope is a powerful energy, but it won’t keep the air conditioner on when summer temperatures soar and demand for electricity skyrockets, causing an overburdened electrical grid to grind to a stop.

    With a hotter than usual summer projected, federal agencies are warning utilities of an “elevated risk” of power outages across two-thirds of North America between June and September. (Carlos Giusti/AP Photo)

    Yet that seems to be the Biden administration’s plan in addressing warnings that nine North American regional electrical grids face an “elevated risk” of power outages this summer, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Commissioner Mark Christie maintains.

    “I take it as, ‘We hope we can through the summer. We think we have a chance if the weather is normal,’” he said during a May 18 FERC meeting. “We hope we get all good news this summer.”

    Christie was critiquing the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Policy & Innovation and Office of Electric Reliability responses to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)’s annual summer reliability assessment that forecasts brown-outs and black-outs across two-thirds of North America between June and September if there are “wide-area” heat waves, drought, and wildfires.

    NERC, a not-for-profit public-private entity staffed with industry representatives, provides the DOE and state regulators with reliability assessments of the electrical grid from Canada to northern Mexico.

    The commission is a subsidiary of FERC, which regulates transmission, pipelines, and interstate wholesale prices of electricity and natural gas.

    The FERC board consists of five appointed members with one seat currently vacant. There are two Democrats, including Chair Willie Phillips, and two Republicans, including Christie, who was appointed to the commission by President Donald Trump in 2018.

    California Independent System Operator announced a statewide electricity Flex Alert urging conservation to avoid blackouts in El Segundo, California on Aug. 31, 2022. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images)

    Non-Synchronous Problem is the Solution

    In its assessment, NERC cites the “changing resource mix” driven by Biden’s goal to “decarbonize” the U.S. electrical grid by 2035 as spurring a disjointed transition from coal, oil, and natural gas to renewable energies, such as wind, solar, and nuclear.

    With electricity demand increasing—it is projected to increase by at least 50 percent by 2050—fossil fuel plants are being retired more quickly than they are being replaced by plants generating electricity from “renewable” green sources, fostering fears of shortages that could see electricity prices soar.

    “You’ve heard me say, and you’ve heard me say often, reliability is job one, and that is our focus of many of the orders we have today” including the NERC assessment, Phillips said.

    The NERC assessment and other FERC programs address “the rapidly changing resource mix,” but added he is concerned about the “projected addition over the next decade of an unprecedented proportion of non-synchronous resources.”

    Those resources include solar, wind, and hydropower, which are “non-synchronous” because they produce different amounts of electricity depending on conditions. Too much reliance on non-synchronous renewable energy generation can decrease overall grid stability, NERC maintains.

    Nevertheless, the DOE agencies’ plan to remedy summer storm and heat wave shortfalls is adding more “non-synchronous” energy to the resource mix.

    Energy Industry Analyst James Burchill of the Office of Energy Policy & Innovation told the commission that a “warmer than average summer [is] expected this year” with the National Oceanographic Atmospheric Agency forecasting a “50- to 70-percent chance of higher than normal temperatures this summer in most parts of the country.”

    Burchill said aggregate net power generation this summer is expected to increase to 1,167 gigawatts (GW) from 1,138 GWs last summer “primarily from solar and wind generation that has been added or will begin service.”

    An additional 4 GWs of energy storage capacity has been added nationwide for the second year in a row, “making battery storage the fourth-largest type of capacity addition to the grid by the end of summer 2023,” he said.

    “Resource additions outpaced retirements, with rapid growth in storage capacity,” which should suffice in supplementing base grid generation, Burchill said. NERC maintains this should be adequate under normal operating conditions.

    “Tracking recent trends,” he said, “much of the added capacity this summer will likely come from wind, solar, natural gas-fired (plants), and battery storage projects while retirements will most be coal-fired.”

    Giant wind turbines near Interstate 10 are powered by strong prevailing winds near Palm Springs, California. (David McNew/Getty Images)

    ‘Good News’ Fueled By Wind, Sun, Hope

    NERC Director of Reliability John Moura was less rosy, telling the commission the assessment “found that new resource additions will meet that [normal] demand, but the loss in capacity from retirements is increasing the risk of electricity shortages during wide-area heat waves and other extreme weather conditions.”

    To be clear, he said, “All areas meet reliability criteria and have adequate resources for normal demand. However, we also found more areas are likely to have energy risks during the more extreme scenarios that we assess.”

    Wind energy, in particular, is a concern, Moura said. “When low-wind factors are factored in” generation in peak demand is “not sufficient.”

    “New wind and solar are not one-for-one replacements of retiring fossil plants,” Commissioner Allison Clements said. “They are not intended to create a reliable grid in isolation.”

    She said that “properly accrediting the ability of all resource types during shortages is critical to reliability,” which is what the NERC assessment recommends and what is happening.

    “It is important that we avoid jumping to conclusions, though, before we collectively kick the tires on the assumptions in this report,” Clements said, highlighting upcoming industry forums in Portland, Maine, and Austin, Texas, as opportunities for experts to find solutions, such as “grid-enhancing technologies.”

    Fossil fuel plant retirements “are one important piece of a larger reliability puzzle and solving that puzzle starts with an analysis of all the pieces,” she said.

    Phillips, who was heckled by climate change activists in his opening remarks and as the meeting concluded, said that despite concerns over summer outages, “I think there is some good news here. We’re seeing things trending in the right direction over the last year.”

    That’s not what Christie said he’s seeing.

    “The long-term trends, I don’t think are good news,” he said. “I think we have some major, major threats facing the reliability of the grid. The long-term trend is we are losing dispatchable generation at a rate that is unsustainable and it is going to have negative consequences in the future.”

    But there’s the wind, the sun, and the hope that it all works out, Christie said.

    “If wind doesn’t show up, there is insufficient dispatchable generating capacity,” he said. “So, we hope it does.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 05/20/2023 – 14:30

Digest powered by RSS Digest

May 20

Today’s News 20th May 2023

  • The Big Tech Spy Hunt
    The Big Tech Spy Hunt

    Authored by Anders Corr via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The United States and South Korea are getting tougher on technology leaks. The two countries have extensive tech industries to protect. Most important is their technological lead, along with the Netherlands, in small and powerful computer chips used for economic and military applications around the world.

    Visitors look at the J-16D electronic warfare variant of the Chinese military’s J-16 airplane during 13th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition, also known as Airshow China 2021 in Zhuhai, southern China, on Sept. 29, 2021. (Ng Han Guan/AP Photo)

    Countries that steal these technologies include China, Russia, and Iran. As U.S. adversaries, they could use them against us and our allies.

    On May 16, the Department of Justice (DOJ) revealed five related cases investigated by its new “Disruptive Technology Strike Force.”

    Two of them, both in California, include the alleged theft of source code by Chinese nationals for delivery to competitors in China.

    On May 5, a senior technology engineer was arrested for alleged theft of “metrology software which is used in ‘smart’ automotive manufacturing equipment,” the DOJ said in a press release. The tech could help China build nuclear submarines and military aircraft.

    The other case is of a Chinese national and former Apple engineer who allegedly stole “thousands of documents containing the source code for software and hardware pertaining to Apple’s autonomous vehicle technology,” according to the DOJ.

    He escaped back to China the same night in 2018 that FBI agents searched his home and discovered the documents. It is unclear why the FBI did not immediately arrest the suspect and why it has taken this long to bring charges.

    A third case, in New York, involved a sanctioned “Chinese procurement network established to provide Iran with materials used in weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and ballistic missiles,” the DOJ said. The defendant is a Chinese national who allegedly used a front company to try and provide Iran with isostatic graphite, used in the rocket nozzles and reentry vehicle nose cones of intercontinental ballistic missiles. He is at large in China.

    French officials arrested a Greek national in a fourth case for alleged links to Russian intelligence and acquiring 10 different types of controlled technology for illegal export to Russia.

    U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of New York Breon Peace with David Newman (L), the principal deputy assistant attorney general for National Security at U.S. Department of Justice, Michael Driscoll (2R), the assistant director-in-charge of the FBI’s New York field office, and David Sundberg (R), the assistant director-in-charge of the FBI’s Washington field office speaks during a DOJ press conference announcing arrests and charges against multiple individuals alleged to be working in connection to the Chinese regime, at the U.S. Attorney’s office in New York City, on April 17, 2023. (Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images)

    “As alleged, while ostensibly operating as a defense contractor for NATO and other ally countries, the defendant and his Aratos Group were double-dealing, helping to fuel Russia’s war effort and their development of next-generation weapons,” according to U.S. Attorney Breon Peace.

    The Aratos Group operates defense and technology companies in Greece and the Netherlands, which, as NATO countries, can import some controlled U.S. tech. Since 2017, Aratos has allegedly smuggled tech to Russia that can be “used in military applications, including quantum cryptography and nuclear weapons testing, as well as tactical battlefield equipment” by Russian nuclear and quantum research facilities and intelligence services, according to the DOJ.

    Two other Russian nationals were arrested in Arizona in a fifth case for allegedly lying and using front companies and foreign bank accounts to attempt to ship export-controlled aircraft parts to sanctioned Russian commercial airlines.

    As the United States has increased the pressure on economic spies, those from China have gone elsewhere to get similar technologies. In South Korea, for example, confirmed leaks of core technologies increased from 3 in 2017 to 10 in 2021, according to the Financial Times. In the first quarter of 2023, there have already been three such leaks from large automotive, display, and semiconductor companies. Headhunters from China operate front companies and lurk outside South Korean chip fabs in an attempt to poach talent. On offer are salaries three-to-four times prior incomes.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 23:40

  • Watch: Scientists Create Real Doctor Octopus Arms  
    Watch: Scientists Create Real Doctor Octopus Arms  

    Scientists from the University of Tokyo have developed a set of robotic arms that can be attached to a user’s back. These arms mimic the appearance of Otto Octavius (also known as Doctor Octopus), a fictional character and one of Spider-Man’s most enduring enemies, who wields mechanical, tentacle-like appendages. 

    Called “Jizai Arms,” the wearable backpack can power up to six detachable robot arms and moves with the user’s body. 

    “The system was designed to enable social interaction between multiple wearers, such as an exchange of arm(s), and explore possible interactions between digital cyborgs in a cyborg society,” the scientists wrote in a research note titled “Social Digital Cyborgs: The Collaborative Design Process of JIZAI ARMS” that was published in the ACM Digital Library, a database of full-text articles and bibliographic literature covering computing and information technology. 

    “From our role-playing sessions, we found that our bodies could precisely sense the attachment/detachment of arms, and we especially felt a strong impact when detaching or reducing the number of robotic arms worn,” the scientists stated in the paper. 

    “We also suggested adding customizability to the robotic arms to generate a sense of social ownership, an individual’s sense of ownership towards a specific artificial body part shared among multiple persons, as a future research topic,” they continued. 

    This technology reminds us of Octavius’ mechanical tentacles. 

    Besides, artificial intelligence — we might also want to prepare for a world of cyborgs.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 23:20

  • Do Whites Also Deserve Reparations?
    Do Whites Also Deserve Reparations?

    Authored by John Mac Ghlionn via The Epoch Times,

    In the United States, calls for reparations are, once again, heating up. A Duke University professor recently called for $14 trillion in reparations for the descendants of American slavery (roughly $350,000 per recipient).

    The professor, William Darity, isn’t the only one calling for reparations. The mayor of Boston, Michelle Wu, has established a task force that will explore compensation for black citizens. In New York City, Mayor Eric Adams has signaled his support for the idea. Detroit’s Reparations Task Force is currently exploring forms of compensation for the city’s black residents. Similar events are taking place in St. Louis. In early May, California’s reparations task force approved recommendations that could see some black residents receive $1.2 million each as compensation for slavery and racial discrimination.

    Reparations are a terrible idea.

    Calls for race-based compensation appeal to emotion, not logic. First, how do we define slavery? Contrary to popular belief, African Americans weren’t the only victims of slavery. As Stephan Talty, an author who has researched slavery in great detail, has noted, white people were also the victims of slavery.

    In a piece for Salon, a hyper-progressive online magazine, Talty discussed the fact that, contrary to popular belief, white slavery did occur prior to the occurrence of the Civil War. Talty referenced the work of Joel Augustus Rogers, a historian who meticulously documented the many ways in which whites were kidnapped and sold into slavery. These kidnappings occurred from the early 1700s right up until 1861, the year the Civil War started. Some of the victims were orphans or unwanted babies, while others were impoverished immigrants. White slavery occurred in America. This is an inconvenient truth that receives little or no attention, probably because it contradicts the “white privilege” narrative that continues to do the rounds.

    Even if we were to agree on a definition of slavery, how are we supposed to verify those that claim to be victims? Then, of course, there’s the matter of financing reparations. Where will the money come from?

    For comment on the matter, I reached out to David W. Rasmussen, the director of the Policy Sciences Center at Florida State University. Rasmussen recently published a paper discussing reparations for black citizens, and why such a system of redress for past injustices deserves criticism.

    Rasmussen told me that although it’s easy to make the case that black citizens are owed reparations—the right to own slaves is embedded in the Constitution, after all—this doesn’t mean that the case being made has any real substance. The idea of reparations, noted Rasmussen, fails for many reasons.

    First off, reparations are expensive, with “reasonable” estimates ranging from about $500 billion to $2.7 trillion. The highest estimate of damages is $7 quadrillion, he said, “a figure that emerges because damages are compounded at an annual interest rate of 6 percent.” For the mathematically challenged, a quadrillion is 1,000 trillion.

    Moreover, black reparations would benefit about 12 percent of the population.

    In other words, said Rasmussen, “We are asking 88 percent of the population to pay as much as $500 billion (probably over a period of years) to bear the cost.”

    All Americans, including those who are currently struggling to put food on the table, would bear this cost (40 million Americans, more than 25 percent of the population, currently live in poverty). Only 30 percent of Americans are in favor of some form of reparations. “Many of these,” according to Rasmussen, “may find a $500 billion price tag a hard sell.” Indeed.

    It’s common for those in favor of reparations to insist that all descendants of slaves, regardless of their economic situation, should receive reparations. Thus, individuals such as Barack and Michelle Obama, as well as LeBron James and Oprah Winfrey, would be eligible. Rasmussen, like many other Americans, is against income transfers to high-income households—and for good reason. It makes absolutely no sense.

    Which begs the question: What, if any, palatable alternatives to reparations exist?

    Rasmussen asks, “If we are genuinely interested in helping black families locked in poverty in communities with high crime, inferior housing, and bad schools, why not address those problems?”

    He’s right. Rather than creating race-related policies, the United States must create policies that address specific problems. This is the only way forward, largely because Native Americans, Hispanics, and poor whites would also stand to benefit. Again, contrary to popular belief, the United States is no longer divided by race. It’s divided by class. To be specific, it’s divided by four distinct classes: upper, middle, working, and lower, with more and more Americans falling into the final two categories.

    As noted earlier, tens of millions of people of various skin colors are living in abject poverty. To truly help those in need, those struggling to survive, we need to move past the idea of reparations for black individuals. Now, more than ever, we must move past the desire to use skin color as a defining metric.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 23:00

  • Visualizing The Decline Of Affordable Housing In The US
    Visualizing The Decline Of Affordable Housing In The US

    Over 80% of U.S. residents have chosen to live in an urban setting, as of 2023.

    And, as Visual Capitalist’s Chris Dickert and Pernia Jamshed detail below, with that number set to rise to nearly 90% by 2050, house prices are rising, with significant consequences to housing affordability. 

    This visualization, the second in the Reimagining Home Series from our sponsor Boxabl, takes a deep dive into the evolution of the housing market in the U.S.

    Housing Affordability At Its Lowest Ebb in Decades

    The U.S. house-price-to-income ratio, which tracks house prices in multiples of annual income, has steadily climbed since the mid-1980s, when the market was recovering from a real estate crash earlier that decade.

    Historically, the ratio has hovered between three and four. But in the early aughts, the ratio passed four and kept going, reaching a high of 5.11 in 2005. The ratio fell somewhat in the aftermath of the subprime mortgage meltdown, but never returned to historical averages. New records were set in 2014 (5.33), and again in 2021 (5.61).

    Note that because median housing prices and median household incomes are released at different frequencies, quarterly versus annually respectively, in order to calculate the ratio, housing prices were averaged on an annual basis.

    Year Median House Price Median Household Income Ratio
    1984 $79,950 $22,415 3.57
    1985 $84,275 $23,618 3.57
    1986 $92,025 $24,897 3.70
    1987 $104,700 $26,061 4.02
    1988 $112,225 $27,225 4.12
    1989 $120,425 $28,906 4.17
    1990 $122,300 $29,943 4.08
    1991 $119,975 $30,126 3.98
    1992 $121,375 $30,636 3.96
    1993 $126,500 $31,241 4.05
    1994 $130,425 $32,264 4.04
    1995 $133,475 $34,076 3.92
    1996 $140,250 $35,492 3.95
    1997 $145,000 $37,005 3.92
    1998 $151,925 $38,885 3.91
    1999 $160,125 $40,696 3.93
    2000 $167,550 $41,990 3.99
    2001 $173,100 $42,228 4.10
    2002 $186,025 $42,409 4.39
    2003 $192,125 $43,318 4.44
    2004 $218,150 $44,334 4.92
    2005 $236,550 $46,326 5.11
    2006 $243,750 $48,201 5.06
    2007 $244,950 $50,233 4.88
    2008 $229,550 $50,303 4.56
    2009 $215,650 $49,777 4.33
    2010 $222,700 $49,276 4.52
    2011 $224,900 $50,054 4.49
    2012 $244,400 $51,017 4.79
    2013 $266,225 $53,585 4.97
    2014 $285,775 $53,657 5.33
    2015 $294,150 $56,516 5.20
    2016 $305,125 $59,039 5.17
    2017 $322,425 $61,136 5.27
    2018 $325,275 $63,179 5.15
    2019 $320,250 $68,703 4.66
    2020 $336,950 $68,010 4.95
    2021 $396,800 $70,784 5.61

    Housing data is available up to the first quarter of 2023, when median prices eased off from a record-high $479,500 at the end of 2022 to $436,800 in the first quarter of this year.

    Because median household income is currently only available up to 2021, it’s not possible to calculate the ratio past that. However, unless there was an unusually large increase in income, the ratio has likely remained near record highs.

    And throughout the seemingly unstoppable rise in house prices over the 38 years covered above, income has failed to keep up. Between 1984 and 2021, median incomes rose 3.16x from $22,415 to $70,784, while median housing prices increased nearly 5.26x to $423,600, up from $78,200.

    Issue Top of Mind For Local Communities

    Amid the steady erosion of housing affordability, U.S. residents have reacted with rising concern. In 2018, when the Pew Research Center asked about major problems affecting local communities, the top spot went to Drug Addiction at 42%, compared to 39% on the Availability of Affordable Housing.

    In 2021, the situation reversed itself and housing affordability was the #1 problem according to 49% of respondents, an increase of 10%. Drug Addiction, on the other hand, fell to 35%.

    In general, younger Americans (55%), urban residents (63%), and those with lower incomes (57%) expressed more concern than their counterparts.

    Is There a Doctor in the House?

    So what’s causing the erosion of housing affordability in the U.S.?

    Ultimately, the U.S. is not building enough houses to keep pace with population growth. And you can see this in the housing start data. In January 1959, there were around 1.7 million housing starts, compared to January 2023, when there were 1.3 million. And this decrease happened despite the fact that the U.S. population nearly doubled, from 176 to 335 million. 

    Lots of different forces are working together at the local level to stop more houses from being built. Space is one reason. Local zoning laws that limit the construction of multi-family homes is another culprit. The COVID-19 pandemic has also caused global supply chain issues, leading to rising material costs for housing.

    And the icing on the cake? Rising interest rates are making it even harder for first-time homebuyers to enter the market.

    Thinking Outside of the Box on Housing

    With housing affordability at its lowest ebb in over a decade and people worried that they won’t be able to find a place to live, it’s time to think outside of the box.

    Boxabl uses advanced, mass production techniques to build and ship homes that significantly lower the cost of home ownership for everyone.

    This is the second piece in the Reimagining Home Series. Part 1 takes a deep dive on urbanization in the U.S., while the third and final piece looks at how modular homes could be a solution to the U.S. affordability crisis.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 22:40

  • Supreme Court Rules In Favor of Twitter, Google, Facebook In Liability Case Over User-Posted Content
    Supreme Court Rules In Favor of Twitter, Google, Facebook In Liability Case Over User-Posted Content

    Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Supreme Court unanimously sided with Twitter, Google, and Facebook, finding in a pair of decisions on May 18 that the Silicon Valley giants are shielded from liability for content posted by users.

    The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on May 12, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

    The lawsuits arose after deadly Islamic terrorist attacks overseas. Victims’ families argued that the Big Tech companies were liable because they allowed terrorist videos to be posted online or failed to do enough to police the terrorist accounts posting the videos.

    Big Tech and its supporters had been deeply concerned that the court could eviscerate Section 230 of the federal Communications Decency Act of 1996, which generally prevents internet platforms and internet service providers from being held liable for what users say on them. They say the legal provision, sometimes called “the 26 words that created the internet,” has fostered a climate online in which free speech has flourished.

    Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have attacked Section 230, calling for it to be repealed, but in the twin rulings, the Supreme Court sidestepped the Section 230 issue, much to the relief of the tech companies.

    During oral arguments on Feb. 21, the justices struggled over the extent to which social media platforms should be held liable when terrorist groups use the platforms to promote their cause.

    Chief Justice John Roberts said that despite any algorithm YouTube may use to push users to view videos, the company is “still not responsible for the content of the videos … or text that is transmitted.”

    Justice Elena Kagan told a lawyer for one of the families, “I can imagine a world where you’re right that none of this stuff gets protection.”

    “And, you know, every other industry has to internalize the costs of its conduct. Why is it that the tech industry gets a pass? A little bit unclear,” she said.

    “On the other hand, I mean, we’re a court. We really don’t know about these things. You know, these are not like the nine greatest experts on the internet,” Kagan said at the time.

    The Supreme Court’s new 38-page decision (pdf) in Twitter Inc. v. Taamneh, court file 21-1496, was written by Justice Clarence Thomas.

    Supreme Court Associate Justice Clarence Thomas in the East Room of the White House on Oct. 8, 2018. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

    Twitter asked the court to review a lower court ruling in favor of a Jordanian national killed in an ISIS terrorist group attack in an Istanbul nightclub. The company argued it shouldn’t be held responsible for acts of international terrorism if the group used its platform. The family of the late victim, Nawras Alassaf, claimed that social media platforms didn’t do enough to take down ISIS videos.

    Thomas wrote that the plaintiffs sought to hold Twitter, Facebook, and Google “liable for the terrorist attack that allegedly injured them,” but the court concluded that “plaintiffs’ allegations are insufficient to establish that these defendants aided and abetted ISIS in carrying out the relevant attack.”

    The connection between the online platforms and the nightclub attack was “far removed,” he wrote.

    “The allegations plaintiffs make here are not the type of pervasive, systemic, and culpable assistance to a series of terrorist activities that could be described as aiding and abetting each terrorist act by ISIS,” Thomas wrote.

    The Supreme Court reversed the decision of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit.

    The Supreme Court’s brief, three-page decision (pdf) in Gonzalez v. Google LLC, court file 21-1333, was unsigned. Google’s parent company is Alphabet Inc.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 22:20

  • IRS To Pilot Its Own Tax E-File Platform In 2024 – What Could Go Wrong?
    IRS To Pilot Its Own Tax E-File Platform In 2024 – What Could Go Wrong?

    In 2024, the IRS will launch a pilot program to offer its own, government-run, income tax return-preparation website, according to a report the universally-despised agency provided to Congress on Tuesday. The report follows a $15 million study of the concept. 

    If there were ever a proposal absolutely guaranteed to be a multifaceted disaster, this is it. Boobus Americanus, however, is apparently champing at the bit: IRS surveys find 72% of Americans are “very” or “somewhat interested in” a free government tool for calculating taxes. What are they missing?    

    For starters, the IRS and all of us animals on the government’s taxpayer ranch approach this endeavor with an enormous conflict of interest. We don’t want to pay a penny more than we absolutely have to, while the government is hell-bent on extracting an entirely fictional “fair share” — and more — from each of us. 

    Next, there’s the comically-cautionary tale of the rollout of the Obamacare enrollment website in 2013. Even with three years to prepare, it was a cluster**** for the ages. The site crashed immediately upon launch, and then inflicted countless glitches on users after it was up and running.

    A screenshot from the malfunctioning Obamacare website

    Even when they function properly, government websites are notorious showcases of confusing communication. Imagine when users inevitably have questions and are compelled to turn to an IRS call center for clarity. Users would have to pray that — after enduring hold time — they’re actually matched with a competent phone rep. A 2002 Treasury audit found reps only came up with the right answer 78% of the time — and that’s just for the average question.   

    At first glance, some might assume using an IRS site would make you less of an audit target. Then again, it’s conceivable the IRS might log your actions as you navigate the site — such as trying different inputs to test the impact on your tax return. Such information could be used as an audit flag. 

    In most states, offering an appealing alternative to TurboTax and H&R Block platforms would require the IRS to also offer state and local tax prep. No way that’s happening anytime soon. 

    The IRS says it hasn’t yet defined the complexity of returns it anticipates handling during the pilot. A prototype of the IRS offering that was run by some taxpayers wasn’t even built to pre-populate with data the government already has via W-2’s and 1099s. As one unimpressed survey participant said, “IRS already knows your tax information. So why wouldn’t I be able to login, put in, say, my [SSN], and then half this information is already filled, and then I just need to put in corrections?”

    Many survey participants felt they should receive expedited return-processing for using a government platform. In its report, however, the IRS said, “The IRS does not, and would not, give preferential treatment to taxpayers who use any particular tax filing method.”

    The IRS estimates its direct-filing platform would cost between $64.3 and $248.9 million annually. The running tally for the Obamacare site surpassed $840 million less than a year after it launched. 

    Many other countries send taxpayers “pre-filled returns” that are populated with data the government already collected. Some are so accurate in their ongoing income-tax withholding that little or no adjustment is necessary. That accuracy springs from their dramatically simpler approaches to income taxation.  

    Putting the government-taxpayer conflict of interest aside, until the US income tax is radically simplified — such as with a flat tax with few or no deductions or credits, no differentiation between short- and long-term capital gains, no differentiation between tax rates on investments and earned income, and no disguised welfare handouts like the EITC — an IRS-run tax-filing platform is for the birds. 

    Or maybe we should say “for the birdbrains” — like the survey participants who said these things about the prospect of an IRS tax-prep platform:

    • “It’s probably going to be good; it’s going to tell you everything you need to know because it’s the IRS. The information should be up to date. I would probably expect it to be more accurate doing it directly with IRS than though some other company.”
    • “They probably more want you to do it correctly than some other company.”
    • “Yes [I would trust it]. Because it’s a government website.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 22:00

  • Hydrogen’s Scalability Essential To Meet Energy Demand
    Hydrogen’s Scalability Essential To Meet Energy Demand

    Authored by Robert Hebner via RealClear Wire,

    Years ago, I attended a lecture featuring a leader of China’s energy program at the University of Hong Kong. The significant investment of time and resources in every energy technology and commitment to scaling solutions with reduced environmental impact was eye-opening, but also struck me as an inefficient approach.

    It is now evident that the world must invest in an all-of-the-above method to meet our energy needs with reduced environmental impact.

    Global demand for energy is projected to double due to a growing population; over half do not have adequate energy today, leading to poverty and premature deaths.

    Currently, fossil fuel-derived energy is the only source available at the scale required to address the growing demand.

    Even if the geopolitical issues around fossil fuels were magically eliminated, nature’s conversion of solar power to fossil fuels includes carbon. We now use energy at a rate that carbon emissions change the climate, which also leads to poverty and premature deaths.

    We need more and better solutions at a large enough scale to matter.

    Hydrogen is attractive because it promises to make intermittent renewable energy available 24/7 everywhere. Moreover, the global hydrogen market is more than $150 billion today, with major growth opportunities in the future grid and transportation sectors.

    The growing demand for energy means a growth in jobs and profits. But there will be winners and losers even in the growing market.

    Governments use incentives to support all energy today. Therefore, the integration of hydrogen into the political system is complicated. For example, the Department of Energy has a goal of developing the technology for producing hydrogen for $1/kilogram by the end of the decade. A kilogram of hydrogen has similar energy to a gallon of gasoline.

    Recent research, however, showed that for a wind farm in West Texas, producing and selling hydrogen makes no economic sense unless the cost of hydrogen was about $3.50/kilogram, due to a production tax credit that rewards wind generated electricity delivered to the electric grid.

    Hydrogen’s carbon footprint is high today, but we have the technology to produce it with a smaller carbon footprint. The U.S. is implementing a graduated tax credit to support the scale-up of cleaner hydrogen, no matter its feedstock.

    We all lose if we make the perfect the enemy of the good. Fewer people suffer or die if we grow from good, to better, to best rather than sitting on good until best is easily achievable.

    Our legacy governance impedes establishing a market where multiple solutions contribute. The system we built assumes the various components compete, not work as a team to meet the growing energy demand in an environmentally sustainable manner.

    We count on our government to provide the required coordination. We must give them the tools and insights they need to do that job well for all of us.

    For hydrogen, parochial perspectives are trying to influence which electrical grid feedstocks are clean enough to receive the full benefits of the 45V tax credit. This is a classic “perfect vs. good” situation.

    Certifying hydrogen as clean when its feedstock comes from an independent and dedicated source is straightforward. However, hydrogen produced in Houston, TX, using grid power is near price parity with the conventional carbon-intensive means of producing hydrogen.

    So, we can have cleaner hydrogen quickly. But the grid, while continually getting cleaner, has a carbon footprint that varies daily. Most prudent folks would say absent proof of greater damage, this approach should receive competitive tax credit today and enhanced tax credits as hydrogen gets cleaner in the future.

    Decades of tax credits and offsets have led to wind and solar being niche suppliers. With its commercially mature massive storage capability, hydrogen might provide the tipping point technology to augment fossil fuels in meeting the growing demand.

    No one solution on its own can meet the challenge. We need flexibility for energy production, conservation, and efficiency. We will prosper with a portfolio of outstanding contributors, not by waiting for an energy superhero.

    Robert Hebner is the director of the Center for Electromechanics at the University of Texas at Austin. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 21:40

  • 30-Ton Shipment Of Explosive Chemical Disappears Between California And Wyoming
    30-Ton Shipment Of Explosive Chemical Disappears Between California And Wyoming

    A 30-ton shipment of ammonium nitrate, a chemical used as both fertilizer and as a component in explosives, has gone missing during a rail shipment between Wyoming and California last month, resulting in four separate investigations.

    The Dyno Nobel plant near Cheyenne, Wyoming, where the 60,000-pound shipment of ammonium nitrate originated. (The Center for Land Use Interpretation)

    A railcar loaded with some 60,000 pounds of the chemical left Cheyenne, Wyoming on April 12, only to be found empty two weeks later at a rail stop in the Mojave Desert, according to a short incident report from the firm which shipped the ammonium, KQED reports.

    The company, Dyno Nobel, made the report May 10 to the federal National Response Center, or NRC. The report also appeared last week in an NRC database of California incidents managed by the state Office of Emergency Services last Wednesday.

    Ammonium nitrate is commonly used as fertilizer. It’s also an ingredient in high explosives and was used in the homemade bomb detonated in the 1995 attack on the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City.

    According to Dyno Nobel, the Ammonium – transferred in pellet form in a covered hopper car similar to those used to ship coal – must have fallen from the car on the way to a rail siding (where a short track connects with the main track) around 30 miles from the town of Mojave in eastern Kern County, in a city called Saltdale.

    A Union Pacific train. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

    “The railcar was sealed when it left the Cheyenne facility, and the seals were still intact when it arrived in Saltdale. The initial assessment is that a leak through the bottom gate on the railcar may have developed in transit,” said the company, adding that the two-week trip included multiple stops. They report having had “limited control” over the railcar operated by Union Pacific.

    The railcar is being transported back to Wyoming for inspection.

    Meanwhile, a representative for the Federal Railroad Administration says the investigation points to an improperly closed hopper car gate.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 21:20

  • Democrat Bill Would Pack Supreme Court To Lessen Conservative Influence
    Democrat Bill Would Pack Supreme Court To Lessen Conservative Influence

    Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Senate Democrats unveiled a new bill that would pack the Supreme Court by adding four new seats beyond the current nine seats, a move that could lead to the loss of the court’s current conservative majority.

    Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) speaks at the Senate subcommittee hearing on The China Challenge, Part 3: Democracy, Human Rights, and the Rule of Law, on Dec. 4, 2018. (Jennifer Zeng/The Epoch Times)

    The legislation comes after President Joe Biden’s commission on Supreme Court reform failed in December 2021 to recommend expanding the size of the nation’s highest court. Public approval of the court has fallen in recent years, according to polls. The late Democratic President Franklin Roosevelt tried to pack the court in the 1930s after it kept striking down his New Deal policies but the plan ultimately went nowhere after the public and lawmakers from his own party turned against it.

    Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) unveiled his new legislation, the proposed Judiciary Act of 2023 (pdf), at a press conference on the steps of the Supreme Court on May 16.

    “Our most fundamentally held freedoms are under attack from an illegitimate, far-right United States Supreme Court,” Markey said.

    “And if we fail to act, it will only get worse. We must fix this broken and illegitimate court. We must expand the United States Supreme Court.”

    The court-packing proposed by Democrats is justified because Senate Republicans repeatedly “broke the rules” about the confirmation of Supreme Court nominees in recent years, Markey claimed.

    After conservative Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died in February 2016, Senate Republicans refused to allow a vote on then-President Barack Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, who is now President Biden’s attorney general.

    Republicans denied Garland “a hearing and a vote that he was entitled to,” Markey said, even though there is no constitutional provision, law, or Senate rule that required the Senate to vote on the nomination.

    “They claimed that they couldn’t fill a seat in a presidential election year, even with the election nine months away, and they kept that seat vacant for 422 days,” the senator said, adding that Obama’s successor, then-President Donald Trump, nominated Justice Neil Gorsuch to the court days after his inauguration.

    “Then, in October of 2020, with head-spinning hypocrisy, Senate Republicans and Donald Trump stole the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat, forcing Amy Coney Barrett onto the bench literally as Americans were casting their votes in the presidential elections nine days before Election Day in 2020.”

    “So much for not confirming justices in a presidential year. So we now have two justices on the bench who frankly have no right to be there,” Markey said.

    Americans have suffered since Republicans “hijacked the court,” handing it over to “partisan justices eager to toss aside decades of precedent to satisfy their deep-pocketed right-wing special interest benefactors.”

    Markey said he feared that decisions last year reversing Roe v. Wade, recognizing a constitutional right to carry firearms in public for self-defense, and curbing the government’s environmental regulatory powers “are just a preview of coming atrocities.”

    Democrats also need to pack the court because Justice Clarence Thomas had made “a mockery of the public trust” by refusing “to recuse himself on cases about efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election in spite of the fact that his wife was implicated in them,” Markey said.

    Legal experts say Justice Thomas did not have to recuse himself from such cases merely because his wife, Ginni Thomas, is a conservative activist and Trump supporter.

    “We have to remind him that we have a system of constitutional checks and balances,” the senator said.

    Markey, along with Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), and a handful of House members have called on Justice Thomas to resign, a demand that Markey repeated at the media event.

    Democrats also claim Thomas is guilty of improprieties because, among other things, he has accepted vacations from a wealthy GOP donor, his longtime friend Harlan Crow, a Texas billionaire. When left-wing media outlet ProPublica recently reported on the existence of the trips, Thomas said he was previously advised he didn’t have to disclose the vacations but vowed to do so going forward. Legal experts say there is no conflict of interest because Crow has not had any business before the Supreme Court and because it is not illegal for justices to have wealthy, generous friends.

    Markey continued: “The court has put all these rights of all Americans but especially those of people of color, women, immigrants, and LGBTQ rural and low-income communities at risk … [and] it’s only a question of when and who the court is going to target next—that’s because the extremist right wing will not stop.”

    “But we will not stop either. So let’s start with undoing the Republicans’ thievery and adding four seats to the court,” he said.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 21:00

  • Cars Still Dominate The American Commute
    Cars Still Dominate The American Commute

    As part of National Bike Month, celebrated in the U.S. each May to promote cycling as a fun and healthy mode of transportation, today, May 19 was Bike to Work Day. On this day, people are encouraged to leave their cars behind and hop on their bikes for their daily commute to work. After all, as Statista’s Felix Richter notes, cycling to work is still relatively rare in the United States, despite the many benefits it offers in terms of personal health, reduced traffic and emissions savings.

    Infographic: Cars Still Dominate the American Commute | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    According to Statista Consumer Insights, 73 percent of American commuters use their own car to move between home and work, making it by far the most popular mode of transportation. Meanwhile, only 13 percent of the 7,649 respondents use public transportation while 11 percent ride their bike. As Statista’s chart shows, alternatives to the car have become more popular since 2019, but none comes close to challenging the car’s status as the king of the American commute.

    There are several factors contributing to the low adoption of bicycles as a means of everyday transportation: for one, Americans are used to commuting longer distances than people in most European nations, automatically ruling out the bike for many. And secondly, many major cities in the U.S. aren’t exactly bike-friendly.

    Infographic: America's Most Bicycle-Friendly Cities | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    According to a recent study, just two American cities made it into the 50 most bicycle-friendly cities in the world, when taking into account factors such as bicycle infrastructure, safety and usage as well as things as mundane as the weather.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 20:40

  • Hypersonics, Nukes Top House Lawmaker's Priorities List
    Hypersonics, Nukes Top House Lawmaker’s Priorities List

    Authored by Audrey Decker via DefenseOne.com,

    Hypersonic missiles and nuclear weapons will get top priority when the House Armed Services committee’s strategic forces panel finally gets to mark up the 2024 defense-policy bill, according to the subcommittee’s chairman. 

    HASC markups are on hold while GOP lawmakers seek federal budget cuts by threatening to force the U.S. renege on its debts. 

    Rep. Doug Lamborn, a Republican whose district is based in Colorado Springs, said his biggest concern ahead of the markup, which was supposed to kick off on Thursday, is the top-line number.  

    Lamborn said he’s “disappointed” the defense policy bill is delayed but “understands” why Congress needs to concentrate on the debt ceiling first.

    “Getting that top-line number, I think, is critical because if that number is reduced as part of a negotiation with the Senate and the White House, I would be very concerned that that would lead to cuts in capabilities in the future,” he told Defense One in an interview.

    A GOP-forced default on outstanding debts would hurt national security in various ways, according to a host of leaders, including the defense secretary, Joint Chiefs chairman, the director of national intelligence, the Air Force secretary, and more.

    If the Pentagon’s top-line number does change, Lamborn said he’s confident programs in the strategic forces portfolio would be in a safe position as “everyone involved” is aware of the need for the Space Force to be fully funded. However, the committees that focus on bigger items, like ships, aircraft, and munitions, might run into some problems, he said.

    “Because we have consensus in the community and with the administration, and I think even the Senate, I think the Space Force is in a good position,” Lamborn said. 

    As chairman of the committee, Lamborn said his top priority is the Pentagon’s hypersonics programs. The pace of development is “way too slow,” and he’s looking to increase funding in the defense policy bill, the National Defense Authorization Act, for “different testing capabilities and facilities” to hopefully accelerate schedules, Lamborn said.

    In addition to offensive hypersonic missiles, Lamborn said his committee is adding language calling for a “very active” and robust schedule to field systems that can defend against hypersonics.

    The Pentagon confirmed last week that Ukraine recently used a Patriot missile system to take out a Russian hypersonic missile, the Kinzhal.

    However, Lamborn said the scenario in Ukraine doesn’t mean the U.S. could do the same against a Chinese hypersonic missile. 

    “Russia has a history of exaggerating their capabilities. It may have been a primitive—that is, an older-generation hypersonic weapon that a Patriot would be fully capable of intercepting,” he said. 

    Another priority for the chairman is keeping the Pentagon’s nuclear triad—bombers, submarines, and intercontinental ballistic missiles—on track. There’s concern that “we’re starting to lose the cushion that we have in any of these programs,” Lamborn said.  

    A major problem for U.S. nuclear programs is plutonium-pit production, Lamborn said. Plutonium pits are part of the fission-fusion chain that creates a thermonuclear explosion.“I’m concerned that we have some possible delays coming up in pit production. And I know that the people running different aspects of the program have contingency plans in place, but I hope it doesn’t come to the point where we have to start looking at contingencies,” he said. 

    While Congress monitors the Pentagon’s nuke programs, Lamborn said there will be bipartisan agreement in the NDAA to keep funding research and development for the Navy’s nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missile, despite multiple attempts from the Biden administration to kill the program, with the goal of “ultimately fielding SLCM-N.”

    For the committee’s space portfolio, Lamborn said he’s focused on ensuring that the Space Force has the “maximum launch capacity as a country that we can, both in the short term and long term.”

    Now three years since the Space Force was created, Lamborn said he’s happy with the newest service’s progress but there’s “a little ways to go” as he’s heard complaints from industry that there’s still too much red tape when a company wants to work with the Space Force. 

    Lawmakers are also “very frustrated” with the service’s overclassification of information, Lamborn said, which makes it difficult to share information with the government, industry, partners and allies—and explain the Space Force’s “critical needs” to the public.

    It’s hard to legislate a cultural change, but “the next best thing we can do is to highlight the need to be more open while walking that fine line of not divulging proprietary information to the other side,” he said.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 20:20

  • Goldman Finds "Most Accurate" Reading Of Current CRE Conditions, Predicts 25% Drop In Office Building Prices  
    Goldman Finds “Most Accurate” Reading Of Current CRE Conditions, Predicts 25% Drop In Office Building Prices  

    There are increasing concerns about the severity of the downturn in the commercial real estate market. This week, Moody’s Analytics reported the first quarterly drop in CRE prices in over a decade. The most pressing issue at the moment is determining the extent to which these prices will drop.

    Shedding more color on the potential depth of the downturn is Goldman Sachs chief credit strategist Lotfi Karoui. He told clients on Thursday that there are many ways to track CRE prices, though “the most accurate portrayal of current market conditions” is data via the Green Street Commercial Property Price Index, which suggests trouble ahead. 

    Here’s part of Karoui’s note explaining why Green Street data foretells the coming price plunge in office and apartment property values. 

    Over the past few months, we have been arguing the sizeable valuation gap between public and private real estate markets will start to close through a catch-down in property prices. Taking stock of the catch-down is, however, not that straightforward. There are many ways to track commercial property prices, often offering divergent pictures. 

    We show the performance of four popular commercial property price indices in Exhibit 8, suggesting price depreciation from peak levels anywhere between 15% and 2%. The two main methods of index construction are transaction-based such as RCA and NCREIF’s repeat sales indices, and appraisal-based such as the Green Street Commercial Property Price Index and the Federal Reserve Board Commercial Real Estate Price Index. Each methodology has its own shortcomings. 

    Repeat sales transaction indices often provide the most unbiased estimate of prices as they control for changes in the market’s composition. But the paltry level of transaction volume at present has shrunk the sample size of these indices (Exhibit 9). Appraisal-based indices can also be noisy at times. That said, at the current juncture, they likely provide the most accurate portrayal of current market conditions with Green Street indicating a 25% year-over-year drop in office property values and a 21% drop in apartment property values.

    In Karoui’s view, Green Street’s data seems to be the most precise, forecasting a forthcoming price drop in office and apartment buildings. The index is weighted heavily towards retail, office, and apartments. 

    Also, the slide in CRE transaction volumes shows the entire sector might be headed for a deep freeze as lending conditions tighten. 

    Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank veteran strategist Jim Reid painted an ominous outlook for the US economy in a note to clients. He pointed to aggressive central bank interest rate hikes breaking parts of the economy as the end of the hiking cycle usually ends with a bang. 

    Reid also showed nearly two centuries of US money supply (year-on-year % change) data that shows the fastest collapse since the 1930s. This is a major red flag for the economy and capital markets, and past collapses have led to panics, recessions, and depressions. 

    It appears as though a downturn has arrived, with the regional banking and CRE sectors bearing the brunt of the Fed’s tightening over the past year. 

    There is more in the Goldman note from Lotfi Karoui, available to pro subscribers in the usual place.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 20:00

  • For Decades, Democrats Have Been Ignoring Evidence And Facts
    For Decades, Democrats Have Been Ignoring Evidence And Facts

    Authored by Vince Coyner via American Thinker,

    About 20 years ago, I read a piece about the North Miami police department eliminating the swimming requirement for the police. With a working knowledge of geography and having visited Miami many times, I thought this was a bit odd and kind of a bad idea. After all, North Miami has hundreds of miles of canals, lakes, and beaches. Predictably, the reason the requirement was being dropped was that “blacks are less likely than whites to know how to swim because of economic disparities between the groups…” In other words, the change was because not enough blacks were qualified to become police.

    Image: Drowning by Blake Cheek (cropped). Unsplash license.

    That was long before the cancer of wokeness had taken hold of much of America. I was dumbfounded. Nobody with a functioning brain would have looked at that situation and said we must eliminate a key element of the job requirements to let more members of “X group” join. But that’s what the people in charge decided. If someone with a functioning brain were actually in charge, he would have said something like, “If our goal is to have a more diverse workforce…” (a questionable assertion in the first place) “and not enough otherwise qualified black candidates can pass the swim test, maybe we should simply take those candidates who meet the other requirements and teach them how to swim.”

    But that’s not what they did. And that is just another demonstration that Democrats aren’t actually serious people seeking to help the communities they represent. No, their goal was to cater to the “equity” crowd, even before it had a name. And they have continued to do so for the last two decades.

    Take gun control. Democrats have been gun-grabbing for decades. They use every mass shooting as a lever to try and wrest guns out of American hands and eviscerate the Second Amendment. While it is certainly the case that gun violence is a problem in America, the reality is, it’s not the guns, it’s the criminals and the Democrats who pamper them.

    There are 350 million people in the United States. Of those, there are 280 million adults, 90 million of whom say they own at least one of America’s 400 million guns, with an average of almost 5 guns each. And how frequently do those 90 million gun owners commit crimes with those guns? Not very often.

    It’s estimated that more than 80% of gun crimes are committed by people who came into possession of their weapons illegally, which means that, conservatively, legal gun owners perpetrated only 20% of gun crimes. There are almost 100,000 shootings in the United States annually (not counting suicides). If we assume that 20% of those shootings were by legal gun owners, that would be 20,000 shootings. To put that in perspective, that would mean that .0002% of legal gun owners commit crimes with their weapons, or conversely, 99.9998% of legal gun owners never use their guns in crimes….

    As a matter of fact, despite what the Democrat media tell you, “Good guys with guns” help stop between one-third and one-half of all active shooter incidents nationwide. But Democrats work continuously to take guns away from all of those apparently “violence eschewing” citizens while at the same time seeking to free actual violent criminals from jail or prison or not send them there in the first place—even as those they free are the ones who actually commit most of the crimes and the worst crimes, and it’s not even close.

    Making matters worse, Democrats rarely seek to focus on the strong correlation between anti-depressants and violence, particularly with young people. They would rather preen in front of cameras and accuse Republicans of having blood on their hands than focus on the real issues that spill so much blood.

    And there is indeed much blood on Democrats’ hands. In what must seem counterintuitive to them, more gun control results in more mass shooting deaths. California is a perfect example. As it’s become more difficult for law-abiding Californians to legally obtain guns over the decades, to the point where it’s actually almost impossible to exercise the right, the rate at which the state exceeds the rest of the country has skyrocketed:

    From 2010 on, California’s per capita rate of mass public shootings was 43% higher than the rate in Texas and 29% higher than in the rest of the United States. Since 2020, the rate in California is 276% higher than in Texas and 100% higher than in the rest of the U.S.

    That is partially because there are fewer of those “Good guys with guns.” In Los Angeles County, where one mass shooting already took place this year, there is one gun permit for every 5,660 adults, and in San Mateo County, where another mass shooting occurred, there is one permit for every 24,630 adults. By comparison, there is one permit holder for every nine people in the 43 right-to-carry states.

    Whether it’s murder on a small scale or a large, this data would only matter if someone were actually interested in solving the problem and reducing the amount of bloodshed. Needless to say, Democrats rarely look at the data and then conclude that making it easier to allow law-abiding citizens to own weapons might actually help reduce said bloodshed.

    Then there’s the border. The Democrat party, led by Liar in Chief Joe Biden, tells us that the American border is secure while Americans watch thousands of illegal immigrants stream across the border every single day. Those poor “asylum seekers” are given phones, have to promise to return to court to adjudicate their cases—sometimes in 5 or 10 years—and are sent on their merry ways. Of course, many of those never even bother to show up for court. And hundreds of thousands more are simply released without even being given a court date. To make things even more ridiculous, while they’re busy gaslighting the entire country, Democrats are shivving their single most solid constituency.

    Of course, the border is not a new problem. In 1986, Ronald Reagan signed the Simpson-Mazzoli Act, which granted asylum to 2.7 million illegal aliens in return for securing the border. Democrats took the asylum and screwed Reagan and the nation on securing the border. Since then, no president other than Trump has had any interest in securing the border, and he was stymied at every single turn by Democrats and leftist judges. The result is that today there are upwards of 40 million illegal aliens in the country, with millions more crossing the border every year.

    Like the gun data, the data on illegal aliens isn’t hard to understand. It’s pretty simple math. The phones alone that the Biden administration gives to illegals cost $360,000 every day while, in the aggregate, illegal aliens cost Americans $250 billion per year. To put that in perspective, the wall Trump wanted to build was estimated to have a price tag of under $25 billion.

    And now, it’s only going to get worse with Biden ending the Trump era Title 42, which was the equivalent of trying to stop your car by dragging your feet on the ground, a la Fred Flintstone. But now that Title 42 is gone, Biden is sending 1,500 Army troops to help…let even more illegals in!

    Whether it’s standing on shore as victims drown in Miami, not allowing armed citizens to protect themselves and their communities, or simply ignoring the costs associated with illegal immigration, it’s clear that Democrats aren’t serious people and don’t care about the average American. Given that Democrats demonstrate their disdain for citizens every single day, one wonders why anyone votes for them. Stockholm Syndrome, anyone?

    Follow Vince on Twitter at ImperfectUSA

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 19:40

  • Tucker Trounces Fox In Favorability Ratings Rout
    Tucker Trounces Fox In Favorability Ratings Rout

    Tucker Carlson has a 63 point lead in popularity over his former employer, Fox News, according to a new survey from consulting agency Change Research.

    Carlson’s net favorability among Republicans is currently at +59, while Fox News’ is sitting at -4, a difference of 63 points

    Carlson and the network parted ways in late April for unknown reasons – with Fox holding the host hostage via his contract that prevents him from appearing on other networks. 

    To circumvent this, Carlson announced he’ll be featuring his show on Twitter!

    “The best you can hope for in the news business at this point is the freedom to tell the fullest truth that you can. But there are always limits. And you know that if you bump up against those limits often enough, you will be fired for it,” Carlson said in a video which decried the media for being misleading “in every story that matters every day of the week, every week of the year.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsSpeaking of Twitter, the Change Research poll also found that Twitter CEO Elon Musk has a net favorability rating of +53 with Republicans, -17 with Independends, and -75 with Democrats (Carlson is at -84 with the latter).

    As the Epoch Times notes;

    Nicholas Fondacaro, associate editor of the conservative media watchdog NewsBusters, told The Epoch Times that Carlson’s mission, like Musk’s, is about free speech.

    “Carlson seemed earnest in his announcement video that he believes Twitter is the last bastion of free speech, likely because Elon Musk has made it clear that ensuring free speech was his priority when purchasing the platform,” he told The Epoch Times. “Musk has, by most accounts, talked the talk and walked the walk.”

    Musk clarified in a Twitter post that Carlson had not signed any contract with Twitter to broadcast his show on the platform and that the former Fox host would need to follow the same rules that apply to all Twitter users.

    “On this platform, unlike the one-way street of broadcast, people are able to interact, critique and refute whatever is said,” Musk said. “And, of course, anything misleading will get @CommunityNotes.”

    “I also want to be clear that we have not signed a deal of any kind whatsoever. Tucker is subject to the same rules & rewards of all content creators,” he continued.

    “Rewards means subscriptions and advertising revenue share (coming soon), which is a function of how many people subscribe and the advertising views associated with the content,” Musk continued.

    “I hope that many others, particularly from the left, also choose to be content creators on this platform,” the Twitter chief added.

    Musk later called on former CNN anchor Don Lemon to do his show on Twitter in what could be seen as an attempt on Musk’s part to encourage a broad array of views on the platform.

    “Have you considered doing your show on this platform?” Musk said in a May 10 reply to Lemon’s April 24 post announcing that CNN had fired him. “Maybe worth a try. Audience is much bigger.”

    Don Lemon (L) at the 2023 Center Dinner at Cipriani Wall Street in N.Y.C., on April 13, 2023. (Cindy Ord/Getty Images); Elon Musk (R) smiles at the E3 gaming convention in Los Angeles, Calif., on June 13, 2019. (Mike Blake/Reuters)

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Ratings Shakeup

    After Carlson’s exit, Fox News’ 8 p.m. hour suffered a dip in ratings after creating a replacement program for Carlson’s show called “Fox News Tonight.”

    Other Fox primetime shows, including the 9 p.m. one currently held by Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham’s programs, have also seen their ratings drop.

    “Fox News Tonight” drew 1.3 million total viewers and 136,000 demographic viewers, according to Nielsen ratings.

    In March, Carlson averaged more than 3 million viewers each night. Part of Carlson’s popularity, especially among conservatives, was likely bolstered by his coverage of never-before-seen footage from the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol breach that he said challenged mainstream narratives that the incident was a “violent insurrection.”

    Fox said that the newly minted show, which the network said was temporary, features a rotating cast of hosts.

    Last week, Trump-era press secretary Kayleigh McEnany hosted the show, and this week, Fox’s Will Cain has had the hosting duties.

    “No decision has been made on a new primetime line-up and there are multiple scenarios under consideration,” a Fox News spokesperson told The Epoch Times on Wednesday.

    Jack Phillips and Jackson Richman contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 19:20

  • Nashville School Shooting Investigation Used To Identify Possible Accomplices: MNPD
    Nashville School Shooting Investigation Used To Identify Possible Accomplices: MNPD

    Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Top law enforcement officials with the Metro Nashville Police Department (MNPD), including the lead investigator in The Covenant School shooting case, have filed motions with the court to stop the release of evidence amid their “ongoing” investigation. In their court filings, law enforcement stated they believed the assailant Audrey Hale, who died on the scene, acted alone, but they “do not know for sure.”

    “Even though the assailant died at the school, the criminal investigative file does not automatically, instantly close,” investigator Lt. Brent Gibson wrote in a court filing. “Investigators must still work to gather and analyze evidence in the case and determine if related crimes were committed, are being planned, or whether other people were involved.”

    An ambulance leaves of Covenant School, Covenant Presbyterian Church, in Nashville, Tenn., on March 27, 2023. (John Amis/AP Photo)

    Gibson went on to say the Covenant investigation is expected to take approximately “12 months,” based upon the “volume of evidence and the number of persons to be interviewed,” along with officers working on a total of 46 homicide investigations in the city so far this year.

    “For comparison purposes, an investigation for a murder-suicide case, where it appears ‘obvious’ what has happened, typically takes eight months,” Gibson added. “While we believe at this time that the assailant acted alone in this case, we do not know for sure. And we need to investigate the matter thoroughly, as we do in all homicides, to rule out any co-conspirators or additional crimes related to this matter.”

    He said he believed the release of the investigative files prematurely could cause “harmful and irreversible consequences.”

    MNPD Weighs In

    The court filings came in a pending open records lawsuit, in which MNPD was forced to turn over unredacted versions of shooter Audrey Hale’s suicide note and journal last week for the judge’s review. The suit was filed after MNPD refused to release the documents to several individuals and groups.

    A hearing and scheduling conference in the lawsuit was scheduled for Thursday, May 18, but Chancellor I’Ashea Myles, in a Wednesday evening ruling, postponed it to Monday, May 22.

    On Wednesday, the officers, alongside several parents of Covenant students, filed their motions with the court, with parents urging the documents to not be released at all.

    In this image from video, Audrey Hale points a gun inside the Covenant School in Nashville, Tenn., on March 27, 2023. (Nashville Police Department via The Epoch Times)

    MNPD said they are using the investigation process to determine whether the “assailant had any assistance with planning the shooting or any assistance with weapons purchases.”

    MNPD Deputy Chief Mike Hagar’s motion with the court stated that officers have been investigating and gathering information about the March 27 shooting since it happened.

    “The MNPD investigation into the matter is still an active, ongoing criminal investigation and an open matter,” he wrote in the filing. “Based on my 34 years of experience in law enforcement, I believe that harmful and irreversible consequences could result from disclosing investigative files prematurely, including in this case.”

    Gibson said officers have been “meeting with, and grieving with the families” alongside working with state and federal agencies, interviewing witnesses, executing search warrants, and gathering documents, items and electronic files from the scene, Hale’s home, and her background.

    MNPD’s Arguments

    Hagar said the investigative file associated with the Covenant shooting is the result of “education and investigative experience utilized by law enforcement officers” to gather information relevant to the crime.

    “It is essential that police investigators be able to gather materials freely and broadly, using their judgment, without fear that materials they gather will prematurely be released to the public and cause prejudice to the effectiveness of the investigation,” Hagar continued. “I have a good faith belief that [MNPD’s] denial… of [the] public records requests were proper.”

    He and Gibson urged the court to allow MNPD to continue and conclude its investigation “in an unrushed, deliberate manner” before the records are released.

    The home of the Nashville Christian School shooter sits quietly in its south Nashville neighborhood, on March 31, 2023. (Chase Smith/The Epoch Times)

    Hagar did say, however, that after reviewing the redacted version of the writings submitted to the court alongside the unredacted version, he “does not believe” the release of redacted documents would “impede the investigation.”

    Gibson said on the matter, “Releasing any of the puzzle pieces too quickly could jeopardize putting this intricate puzzle together.”

    Gibson specified the documents and records MNPD is still in the process of gathering, such as social media records from the past two years, internet and bank account records, phone records, autopsy and toxicology reports, records obtained from search warrants, medical records including psychiatric treatment and gun and ammunition account records.

    Gibson also stated they are interviewing individuals identified in all the records and Hale’s actions for the months prior to the incident and following up on information discovered during the course of the investigation.

    “Many of these documents must be subpoenaed, and it takes time to get the records back,” Gibson wrote. “MNPD must then examine the content of the materials and the metadata. MNPD needs to review the assailant’s messaging data, internet search histories, and any other relevant evidence. This often can be a time-consuming process.”

    He goes on to say MNPD hasn’t had an opportunity to interview everyone “connected to the incident” or to review “all the materials it has gathered.”

    Parents Argue Against Any Release

    Earlier this week, the Covenant School and Covenant Presbyterian Church filed motions with the court to become a third-party intervener in the open records suit, stating the release of such documents could cause safety and security concerns as well as release the private information of church and school staff.

    On Wednesday, the parents of Covenant School students filed their motion, stating their filing had the “overwhelming” support of the Covenant community, with their estimations being that “three-quarters” of Covenant families expressed support to intervene in the suit.

    “This brief is filed on behalf of all three families who lost children who have endured a pain that no words can adequately describe,” they wrote. “This brief is filed on behalf of the surviving children who lived through an unimaginable nightmare and who must deal with the repercussions of that nightmare for the rest of their lives.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 19:00

  • US Hawks Want Iron Dome For Ukraine, But It Would Be Ineffective 
    US Hawks Want Iron Dome For Ukraine, But It Would Be Ineffective 

    Israel has long rejected the idea of sending its Iron Dome missile defense systems to Ukraine, despite the pleadings of Zelensky and his officials. After all, the Iron Dome has been busy of late given recent missile barrages out of Gaza amid the flare-up in fighting. 

    But the Pentagon has signaled it could be prepared to ship its own Israeli-made Iron Dome systems, after earlier sending Patriot missile systems, the latter which may or may not be effective given Russia is now seeking to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses.

    picture alliance via Getty Images

    On Thursday a US general informed a Senate hearing that one of two Iron Dome batteries owned by the United States is ready for deployment to Ukraine. 

    Senator Angus King pressed Army Space and Missile Defense Command chief General Daniel Karbler on why Ukraine has not yet received the Iron Dome: 

    “We sent something like $3 billion to Israel to develop it… Wouldn’t this be a very important resource for the Ukrainians since their principal problem right now is missile defense?” the lawmaker asked.

    Gen. Karbler said that among two Iron Dome batteries in US inventories, one is ready to go if needed:

    “One completed new equipment training, new equipment fielding. It is prepared for deployment. The other one is wrapping up its new equipment training right now. So the army does have one available for deployment if we get a request,” he said.

    Sen. King’s argument is that given the US had a role in developing the system for the Israelis, Washington should have a say in whether Ukraine gets it.

    But the battlefield reality of the Ukraine situation means there are some significant complexities when it comes to deploying the Iron Dome. The system is effective for Israel given it is for Israel a ‘total coverage’ system over specific cities and towns within limited space. But Ukraine’s own wartime situation is very different.

    Ukraine is a vast territory being attacked by Russian aerial bombardments from multiple sides, and even from the Black Sea. The Jerusalem Post also noted analysis this week– 

    “If Israel needs 10 or more Iron Domes to properly defend itself, Ukraine would need dozens or more, which simply do not exist.”

    Iron Dome at work over Israel

    The Israeli publication also emphasized in the analysis: “One or two Iron Domes from the US would make no difference tactically, and at this point, probably would not even make much of a symbolic difference. And even then, the Iron Dome might fail to shoot down Putin’s more sophisticated missiles.”

    The Ukrainians have meanwhile been claiming (dubiously) to have shot down Russia’s hypersonic missiles with the US-supplied Patriots. Russia has called this claim “laughable”. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 18:40

  • "Adversarial Actors, Home And Abroad"
    “Adversarial Actors, Home And Abroad”

    Authored by Thomas Neuberger via “God’s Spies” Substack,

    Which non-foreign ‘adversaries’ do elites have in mind when they promote domestic censorship and news blockades?

    I want to put three thoughts in front of you, drop three stones in the slipstream of your mind. Perhaps you’ll see the ripples as they cross, note their interaction, hear what their crossing says.

    The future this article previews isn’t new, just newly forgot.

    Domestic ‘Terror’ from the Activist Left

    First, from ace investigator Lee Fang (parts of this piece are subscriber-only):

    DHS and FBI Depict Vegan Activists as Potential Domestic Terrorists

    Imagine a young woman named Jane who recently adopted a vegan lifestyle after learning about factory farming in college. She discusses animal welfare and begins attending protests.

    For most, Jane’s experiences sound remarkably benign.

    But for the Department of Homeland Security, the young woman is following a “path of potential radicalization,” according to new documents released through a public records request.

    The scenario was one of several depicted in a violence prevention workshop from the DHS Office for Targeted Violence and Terrorism Prevention, a division of the agency that works to counter domestic terrorism.

    Jane’s supposed path towards violence — as featured in the DHS workshop — is composed of little more than everyday experiences that many Americans take as they embrace activism.

    In the workshop scenario, Jane reacts with anger when discussing animal cruelty and mentions that she joined a group that has “a reputation for holding controversial protests.” She had not only become “an animal lover,” but had become “militant about food and animal rights, and other issues like testing.”

    Note the “workshop.” This is a report of a DHS workshop on domestic terrorism, where new threats may come from, and what to do. The source doc is here; you can probably guess the rest of what it says. If not, Fang lays it out.

    Here’s the cover portion of the document and summary-first remarks:

    Fang’s report includes the FBI component in defining the animal-rights “threat” to internal security:

    Can you see where this is headed? If you do, you’re not alone.

    The ‘Foreign-Domestic Switcheroo’

    The second stone drops here. Does what you read above touch what’s below?

    Through a complicated set of leaks (described here), we find “that the Aspen Institute hosted a ‘Hack-and-Dump Working Group’ exercise in the summer of 2020 titled, ‘Burisma Leak,’ which predicted with uncanny accuracy an upcoming derogatory story in the New York Post about Hunter Biden’s lost laptop.”

    Here’s a link to the Aspen Institute document in question. In it we find the following. First, from the Executive Summary (emphasis mine):

    Once a promise of free expression and the democratization of information, the Web and its many channels are now polluted with mis- and dis-information, bots, abuse, lies, and conspiracies – sometimes planned by adversarial actors from home and aboard.

    Then, from the section about dealing with “Reporting and Promoting Hack-and-Dumps”:

    As we countdown to election day, the risk of a major hack and dump of documents aimed at undermining a candidate or party grows more acute. How can news organizations put provenance front and center? What happens when fabricated documents are released alongside genuine (stolen) content? How can social feeds avoid serving as promoters of foreign or other adversarial entities? Aspen Digital is convening Platform Trust and Safety leaders, cybersecurity reporters, journalism ethicists and First Amendment attorneys to develop and adopt new norms guidelines for publication and coverage of hacked documents.

    Note that the Aspen Institute is not just a think tank. It’s where the elites’ 2020 discussion over moderation of hacked content was happening.

    Now consider what “promoters of foreign or other adversarial entities” means? The only other adversarial entity that isn’t foreign is … domestic. Can you trust, given what’s above, that this designation — “other adversarial entities” — is reserved just for Proud Boy types?

    About this, Matt Taibbi writes (emphasis mine):

    First of all, this notion that there may be fabrications mixed in with real content is a suggestion that pops up somewhere in nearly every one of these leak stories, even if all the material proves to be real (old friend Malcolm Nance did the job in 2016 in suggesting the Podesta leaks were “riddled with forgeries”). More importantly however, that last line is a great example of what former cybersecurity official and Foundation for Freedom Online head Mike Benz calls the “foreign-domestic switcheroo.”

    It’s the basic rhetorical trick of the censorship age: raise a fuss about a foreign threat, using it as a battering ram to get everyone from congress to the tech companies to submit to increased regulation and surveillance. Then, slowly, adjust your aim to domestic targets. You can see the subtlety: the original Stanford piece tries to stick to railing against “disinformation” and information from “foreign adversaries,” but the later paper circulated by Aspen slips in, ever so slightly, a new category of dubious source: “foreign or other adversarial entities.”

    These rhetorical devices are essential. It would be preposterous to form (as Stanford did) an “Information Warfare Working Group” if readers knew the “war” being contemplated was against domestic voices. … But if you start by focusing on Russians and only later mention as an afterthought “other adversarial entities,” you can frame things however you want, from espionage to warfare. As reader O’Neill correctly pointed out, “they are now getting close to being explicit about the fact that their motivation for suppressing news is to fight domestic political adversaries.”

    You don’t have to be a lover of these sources to hate what’s you’ve just found out. And I think it’s reasonable to fear, even if you fear Trump more than God herself, what our security agencies do with domestic power.

    Regime Change

    The last stone dropped in the pond is the oldest one. Before most of you were born, the halls of power fully understood that our security agencies, birthed in the Soviet threat, were fully capable — even tasked with the job — of making sure the global world was a safe American playground.

    The list of American-led coups in other countries is long as your leg and both arms. Start here to see most of it. Do these agencies act domestically as they do abroad? The FBI sure does. But what about the CIA and the rest of the alphabet community?

    Here’s what Robert Kennedy, the man who was murdered on his way to the 1968 nomination, thought of the murder that felled his brother Jack in 1963 (via The Hill, emphasis mine):

    [Robert] Kennedy Jr. said the first call his father, former Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, made after learning his uncle had been shot was to a CIA desk officer.

    “My father said to him, ‘Did your people do this?’” Kennedy Jr. told Fox News’s “Hannity” on Monday. 

    “His next call was to [Enrique Ruiz-Williams], who was one of the Cuban Bay of Pigs leaders who had remained very, very close to our family and to my father,” he continued. “My father asked him the same question.”

    Kennedy Jr. said his father then called John McCone, the head of the CIA, and asked him to come to the family’s house.

    “When I came home [from] Sidwell Friends School, my father was walking in the yard with John McCone, and my father was posing the same question to him, ‘Was it our people who did this to my brother?’” he said. “It was my father’s first instinct that the agency had killed his brother.”

    The Hill later tags this story as a “conspiracy theory,” no doubt to distance itself from both charge and source. But the underlying report is nonetheless true, or RFK Jr. is lying.

    Ripples In the Pond

    What do these data points sum to? I’ll leave it to you. If you love the FBI as some today do, would you love them still if they thought their remit included squelching you and your kind, not just Trump and his, using control of media as their tool?

    As I’ve said before, it’s appropriate to fear what a Trump, or worse, a DeSantis — who unlike Trump, who loves adoration and cash, truly loves power — would do if power were given them.

    Is it therefore not also appropriate to fear these agencies?

    After all, their goals won’t always align with what’s broadly called “the left.” Their goals have never aligned with ours in the past. And unlike Republicans, who are only halfway to their goal, these agencies have power now, and practice using it.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 18:20

  • G7 Day 1: Leaders Lecture Russia, China On Nuclear De-escalation While Standing In City Nuked By US
    G7 Day 1: Leaders Lecture Russia, China On Nuclear De-escalation While Standing In City Nuked By US

    Russia and the Ukraine war are of course high on the agenda for G7 leaders meeting in Hiroshima, Japan starting Friday. Given the venue, the summit kicked off Friday morning with the heads of state laying wreaths at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park in commemoration of tens of thousands killed when the US dropped an atomic bomb on the city on August 6, 1945.

    Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida welcomed the leaders from the US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and United Kingdom for the meeting which is being held May 19 -21. EU officials are also present. Speaking from a city which was literally nuked, the G7 leaders called for a “world without nuclear weapons”… but this was aimed only a certain nations, given the statement singles out Russia, Iran, China and North Korea to embrace non-proliferation. The irony was lost on the Western officials, apparently.

    G7 leaders in Hatsukaichi, Hiroshima prefecture, western Japan. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan/Reuters

    The G7 leaders blasted Moscow’s plans to send nuclear weapons to Belarus as “dangerous and unacceptable” and urged for the reimplementation of conformity to the terms of the New START treaty. And on China, the G7 statement said: “China’s accelerating build-up of its nuclear arsenal without transparency nor meaningful dialogue poses a concern to global and regional stability.”

    The leaders further said that support of Ukraine is crucial to global stability and peace, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz saying “We have once again assured that we will give Ukraine the necessary support for as long as that is required” – in a press briefing on the first day.

    Concerning Russia, the US took the opportunity to unveil expanded sanctions: 

    The Biden administration has added 71 companies to a trade blacklist for supporting Russia.

    The US Department of Commerce’s action targets support for Russia’s military and expands the scope of export controls on Russia and Belarus. The blacklist includes 69 Russian entities, one from Armenia and one from Kyrgyzstan.

    The new export controls target oil and gas projects in Russia and Belarus, Commerce said. Other companies include aircraft repair and parts production plants, gunpowder, tractor and car factories, shipyards and engineering centres in Russia.

    And this amid reports commenting on the ‘success’ on the Russian oil price cap…

    “Following the implementation of the price cap policy, Russia’s oil revenues have fallen substantially compared to both pre-war levels and the elevated level at the onset of the war,” the Treasury said in a fresh report. “Despite selling a consistent volume of oil, Russia makes far less revenue on each barrel because its oil now trades at a significant discount relative to Brent crude, the global benchmark oil price,” the report emphasized.

    Pool via Reuters

    President Biden on the first day had this key announcement to G7 allies concerning what’s highest on Kiev’s “weapons shopping list”: 

    President Joe Biden informed G7 leaders on Friday that the US will support a joint effort with allies and partners to train Ukrainian pilots on fourth generation aircraft, including F-16s, a senior administration official tells CNN.

    The training is not expected to happen in the US, the official said, and will likely happen entirely in Europe. But US personnel will participate in the training alongside allies and partners in Europe, the official said. It is expected to take several months to complete.

    “As the training takes place over the coming months, our coalition of countries participating in this effort will decide when to actually provide jets, how many we will provide, and who will provide them,” the official said.

    There’s been talk among Western allies of forming a ‘fighter jet coalition’ – which Zelensky has been pushing for. The Ukrainian leader is expected to travel to Japan in order to address G7 leaders in person. On Friday he addressed the Arab League summit meeting in Saudi Arabia, and further met face-to-face with crown prince MbS. 

    Protests in the city which the United States nuked in WWII…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Most estimates put the number of Japanese civilians killed by the Hiroshima nuclear bomb dropped from an American plane at 70,000 or more killed. According to The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists:

    Such numbers were large, and appear to have had a sobering effect on President Harry S. Truman. After the August 9 Nagasaki raid (which he had no apparent foreknowledge of), he would put a stop to further bombing, telling his cabinet that “the thought of wiping out another 100,000 people was too horrible,” according to an August 10, 1945, diary entry by then-Secretary of Commerce Henry A. Wallace. It is not clear that Truman had any real sense of how many casualties there would have been prior to the attacks. The only pre-Hiroshima estimate on record is the recollection from Arthur Compton that at a May 31, 1945, meeting of the Interim Committee, J. Robert Oppenheimer had suggested that an atomic bomb dropped would kill “some 20,000 people” if exploded over a city. This is not recorded in the meeting minutes, nor in any other report or correspondence, so it does not seem that this estimate had any special weight to the participants. (Compton amended that this estimate had assumed people would seek shelter; given that no warning was issued for the attacks, this did not occur.)

    Oppenheimer would comment obliquely on this variance in before-and-after estimates during the hearing on his security clearance in 1954:

    Meanwhile, Rabobank comments as follows on what can be expected concerning ‘punishing’ Russia at the G7, also as the escalatory idea of an outright export ban is still floating around…

    “There appears to be a strong commitment by the G7 to support Ukraine and tighten the economic noose on Russia. Sanctions will be broadened to a wider group of goods, especially those that could facilitate Russia’s war effort. According to Bloomberg, the latest draft of a statement does not talk about a near outright ban on exports to Russia, though.”

    “Meanwhile, existing sanctions will be tightened by removing loopholes to circumvent them. This would include the strengthening of enforcement in regards to third countries through which Russia is importing banned goods. One key risk here is that the G7 (plus ‘coalition of the willing’) drive a wider gap between them and those countries that have taken on a more ‘neutral’ stance in the matter.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 18:00

  • Reps. Jim Jordan, Mike Turner Threaten To Subpoena CIA In Hunter Biden Laptop Investigation
    Reps. Jim Jordan, Mike Turner Threaten To Subpoena CIA In Hunter Biden Laptop Investigation

    Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner (R-Ohio) are threatening to subpoena the CIA to force it to address claims of its involvement in an intelligence community letter to discredit reports on Hunter Biden’s laptop.

    With a poster of a New York Post front page story about Hunter Biden’s emails on display, Rep. Jim Jordan (R- Ohio) listens during a hearing before the House Oversight and Accountability Committee at Rayburn House Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington on Feb. 8, 2023. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

    Last week, the two Republican-controlled House committees published a report alleging the CIA’s Prepublication Classification Review Board (PCRB) reviewed and approved an October 2020 letter by 51 former U.S. intelligence community officials, which alleged reports about the contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop had “all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.” The Republican report also alleged a PCRB employee may have recruited signatories for the letter discrediting the negative reporting about Hunter Biden and his father, then-presidential candidate Joe Biden.

    The laptop materials, which were first reported by the New York Post, indicated Joe Biden knew about his son’s foreign business dealings despite having denied such knowledge throughout the 2020 election cycle.

    Jordan and Turner sent a letter (pdf) to CIA Director William Burns on Wednesday, requesting that the agency turn over additional documents relating to its involvement in the October 2020 intelligence community letter. The Republican chairmen threatened to use their subpoena power to compel the intelligence agency to divulge its records.

    PCRB’s Role in Intel Community Letter

    According to the May 10 Republican report (pdf), former CIA officials played an active role in recruiting signatories for the letter discrediting the Hunter Biden laptop reports.

    The report alleges U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was working for the Biden campaign at the time, reached out to former CIA Deputy Director Michael Morell on Oct. 17, 2020, to discuss the intelligence community letter. Morell, an Obama-era CIA official, was quick to agree to the plan and actively recruited other signatories.

    On Oct. 19, 2020, two days after discussing the letter with Blinken, Morell sent a final draft of the letter to the PCRB for review. Morell told the CIA board “[t]his is a rush job, as it need to get out as soon as possible.” According to the Republican report, the signatories hoped to give then-candidate Joe Biden a “talking point” to defend against the Hunter Biden laptop reporting during his final presidential debate with Donald Trump on Oct. 22, 2020.

    The PCRB’s sole function is to make sure current and former CIA employees aren’t disclosing classified information in any materials they may release publicly. The board, therefore, has an influential role over current and former agency employees who may be pursuing potentially lucrative book deals about their time working for America’s premier spy agency.

    One such signatory, former CIA analyst David Cariens, told congressional investigators that his book was up for consideration by the PCRB at the time Morell and other former intelligence community officials were looking for people to sign their letter. Cariens told investigators that a CIA employee affiliated with the PCRB informed him of the intelligence community letter and asked if he would sign it. Cariens said “the person in charge of reviewing the book” called to tell him that it had been approved without any changes required and then told him about the letter.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 17:40

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May 19

Today’s News 19th May 2023

  • Europe Approves World’s First Cryptocurrency Regulations
    Europe Approves World’s First Cryptocurrency Regulations

    Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The European Union has approved a set of rules—the first such regulation in the world—to regulate crypto assets like cryptocurrencies and tokens in a bid to curb money laundering activities and protect investors.

    A visual representation of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency is pictured in London on May 30, 2021. (Edward Smith/Getty Images)

    The markets in crypto-assets (MiCA) legislation was approved on May 16 by EU ministers. The new rules will increase transparency and create a comprehensive framework for businesses operating in crypto markets, including compliance with anti-money laundering rules, according to a May 16 press release. “Recent events have confirmed the urgent need for imposing rules which will better protect Europeans who have invested in these assets, and prevent the misuse of crypto industry for the purposes of money laundering and financing of terrorism,” said Elisabeth Svantesson, Minister for Finance of Sweden.

    Crypto markets have suffered in recent months due to the collapse of multiple firms. FTX, Alameda, Core Scientific, Voyager Digital, Celsius Network, BlockFi, and Three Arrows Capital are some of the major crypto companies that have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and decided to liquidate their assets to pay back customers. Each of these firms is estimated to have liabilities worth billions of dollars that they owe to thousands of creditors.

    MiCA was approved unanimously by members of the EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council (EcoFin). EcoFin represents the economic and finance ministers of all 27 EU nations.

    In May last year, European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde raised concerns about cryptocurrencies during an interview on Dutch television.

    “I have said all along the crypto assets are highly speculative, very risky assets,” Lagarde told the program. “My very humble assessment is that it is worth nothing. It is based on nothing, there is no underlying assets to act as an anchor of safety.”

    Earlier, the ECB President had called Bitcoin a “highly speculative asset” that contributes to money laundering activity.

    The Legislation

    MiCA covers issuers of utility tokens, asset-referenced tokens, as well as stablecoins. Service providers like trading venues and crypto wallets also come under its purview. The legislation is on track to become law in the EU region this summer, and is expected to be rolled out from 2024.

    Firms looking to issue, trade, or safeguard crypto assets in the EU bloc will have to secure a license to do so. MiCA aims to combat tax evasion and money laundering via cryptocurrencies by making transactions involving these instruments easier to trace.

    Beginning January 2026, service providers in the crypto industry will have to obtain the names of senders and beneficiaries of digital assets irrespective of the amount involved in the transaction.

    Entities doing business in the crypto sector will be obliged to ensure their security protocols are up to the required standard. They have to comply with stringent rules to protect consumer funds and can become liable in case the funds of investors are lost.

    MiCA establishes liquidity and disclosure requirements for crypto companies. The management of a crypto firm may be fined in case they fail to make sure the reserve funds are properly managed.

    US Situation

    Efforts to establish comprehensive regulation in the crypto industry are also underway in the United States. In March 2022, President Joe Biden issued an executive order seeking to ensure the responsible development of digital assets.

    Since then, multiple government agencies have been framing policies aimed at pushing six areas of focus outlined in the order, including protecting investors and customers, ensuring financial stability, and countering illicit finance.

    In September, the Biden administration released its first-ever comprehensive framework aimed at regulating digital assets like cryptocurrencies.

    In January 2023, a White House blog post highlighted some of the dangers posed by cryptocurrencies while calling on Congress to pass new laws to limit criminal activity in the sector.

    Officials characterized digital assets as a promising nascent industry that needs to be reined in to protect consumers. It also asked that laws incentivizing more investment into crypto be avoided.

    “Legislation should not greenlight mainstream institutions, like pension funds, to dive headlong into cryptocurrency markets,” the blog said. “It would be a grave mistake to enact legislation that reverses course and deepens the ties between cryptocurrencies and the broader financial system.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 05/19/2023 – 02:00

  • Murray Rothbard On Taiwan & The Third World War
    Murray Rothbard On Taiwan & The Third World War

    Authored by Joseph Solis-Mullen via The Libertarian Institute, 

    Writing pseudonymously in a series of articles for Faith and Freedom in the 1950s, Murray Rothbard took on the question of whether or not the United States should defend Formosa (Taiwan) from attack by mainland China. While his conclusions will surprise no one familiar with his work (that war is the health of the state, that individuals concerned with the fate of Taiwan should do as they will privately, but that their lives and property are not for the government to command), a review of the articles’ contents are worthwhile, nonetheless.

    For apart from such typically memorably Rothbardian lines as “only those who want to socialize America really look forward to the third and perhaps last World War,” we find many of the same ludicrous rationales for war with China used today excoriated with great wit by Rothbard.

    Murray Rothbard

    For example, Rothbard begins the first of these, “Along Pennsylvania Avenue,” by rhetorically posing the question of how it happened that a smattering of islands eighty miles off the coast of mainland China became “necessary to our defense,” and as an answer he replies:

    …[the government] were forced to portray the Reds as “island hopping” their way to the United States. […For] if the Reds take Formosa, they will be one island nearer to the United States. It is an age-old story: a peaceful Pacific “moat” is needed for our defense. In order to protect his moat, we must secure friendly countries or bases all around it. To protect Japan and the Philippines, we must defend Formosa, to protect Formosa we must defend the Pescadores. To protect the Pescadores, we must defend Quemoy, an island three miles off the Chinese mainland. To protect Quemoy we must equip Chiang’s troops for an invasion of the mainland. Where does this process end? Logically, never (18).

    Readers unfamiliar with the history of the region may be interested in some additional context regarding Rothbard’s mention of equipping Chiang Kai-shek, the dictator of Taiwan and exiled leader of China’s failed Republic, for an invasion of the mainland. Despite having been driven from the off by force of arms, and only secured in their island fortress by virtue of the United States Navy repeatedly intervening to prevent a cross-strait invasion by the PLA, it was the official policy of Taipei to retake the mainland by force. Though such plains never got far off the ground—and were mostly abandoned by the 1970s—it was not until the constitutional revisions of the 1990s that Taiwan officially gave up such a policy of armed reconquest in favor of focusing strictly on its own defense.

    Writing in the 1950s, near the height of the first Taiwan Strait Crisis and when talk of an invasion of the mainland by Taipei was still openly planned and called for by Chiang, Rothbard heroically pushed back against those who equated isolation with appeasement.

    In a scene all too familiar, he complained that Congress’ answer to heightened tensions over Formosa was to write what “amounted to a blank check for war in China whenever the President shall deem it necessary,” noting sadly that only two congressmen had opposed the resolution on the grounds that the United States should not actively seek to “engage their boys in a war on foreign soil,” the rest merely arguing over the scope or scale of the commitment to be made.

    Rothbard was predictably red-baited for his efforts, even attacked by a fellow “libertarian” in Faith and Freedom. He defended himself in a series of further articles, “Fight for Formosa?” Parts I & II, and reflecting on the experience some years later in The Betrayal of the American Right he had this to say:

    I could never—and still cannot—detect one iota of devotion to ‘freedom’ in the worldview of those whose zeal for crusading abroad makes them blind to the real enemy: the invasion of our liberty by the State…to give up our freedom in order to “preserve” it is only succumbing to the Orwellian dialectic that “freedom is slavery.”

    Indeed.

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    Those who today reasonably say that the defense of an island eighty miles off the coast of mainland China and five thousand miles from Hawaii (let alone the mainland United States) cannot possibly be a core national interest can take comfort in following the footsteps of such brave and principled forebearers as Rothbard.

    Americans can and must say NO! to the new Cold War and refuse efforts by Washington to provoke Beijing with regards to Taiwan, virtually its only declared “red line.”

    That is, unless another disaster like Ukraine is the goal—which it may well be.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 23:40

  • Global Executions Hit Highest Rate In Five Years
    Global Executions Hit Highest Rate In Five Years

    The number of people executed under the death penalty increased by 53 percent in 2022, according to a landmark report by Amnesty International, with the global death toll hitting 883 people, up from 579 the year before.

    This marks the highest execution rate in five years.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to Amnesty, three countries – Iran, Egypt and Saudi Arabia – accounted for 90 percent of all known executions.

    Infographic: Global Executions Hit Highest Rate in Five Years | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Iran saw an 83 percent increase, rising from 341 in 2021 to at least 576 people being killed in 2022. Of these cases, 255 were drug-related offenses and 279 were for murder. This grim trend has continued into this year, with at least 94 people put to death in the country in January and February alone, with executions used as a tool of ethnic repression, according to Amnesty.

    Saudi Arabia’s numbers also saw a major increase, tripling from 65 to 196 people. This marks the highest number of known executions recorded in the country in 30 years. The change was mainly driven by an increase of executions for terrorism-related offenses (rising from 9 in 2021 to 85 in 2022) as well as the resumption of executions for drug-related offenses (rising from 0 in 2021 to 57 in 2022). Egypt executed 24 people and handed out 538 death sentences that year.

    China continues to be considered the most serious executioner, with deaths expected to be in their thousands. Our chart excludes these figures, however, as the secrecy of the state means that exact death count remains unknown. Amnesty said that figures are also unknown for North Korea and Vietnam, and adds that the total yearly figures represent the minimum values.

    The known executions recorded and used in this chart were carried out in 20 countries in 2022, up from 18 the year before. In the United States 2022 saw 18 executions nationwide, which is an increase from the 11 the year before, but still remains among the country’s lowest figures.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 23:20

  • Who Is Better At Raising Your Child, You Or The State?
    Who Is Better At Raising Your Child, You Or The State?

    Authored by Mattias Desmet via Substack (emphasis ours),

    The Belgian politician Connor Rousseau and his social-democratic Vooruit party want to require parents to send their children to day care and kindergarten. There are still politicians who think of the children. And the logic is conclusive: the first six years of life are decisive for the future life of the child. That cannot be left to the parents. The state must take its responsibility and release money. A few billion is enough to get the job done.

    (Asukanda/Shutterstock)

    No one knows where that money will come from. But if necessary, some additional printing can be done. That is actually a way to make the population pay more taxes without them realizing it. Citizens nowadays pay barely 53 percent taxes. A little more loyalty to the state is welcome. Moreover, it is for their own good, and that of their descendants. Citizens do not realize enough how important it is that their children are brought up well. Just as they do not realize that they cannot actually do that themselves and that the state must do it for them.

    And if inflation leads to the collapse of the financial system, then a solution is already at hand: the introduction of the CBDC—the digital currency of the central banks. This will be linked to the digital passport and a social credit system. In this way, the state will educate not only the child, but the parents as well, according to a system of punishment and reward that Pavlov tested on dogs.

    Granted, Pavlov concluded that his system of rewards and punishment really only works if you know the character of the individual dog. Every dog ultimately reacts in its own way to rewards and punishment. We can ask ourselves whether the state will also take the individual character of the child-puppies in daycare into account in its state education. That chance is small. Connor Rousseau believes that every child should receive equal opportunities and thus an equal education. Whether the child actually benefits from it or not is beside the point.

    The state has to guarantee the quality of education and will therefore also have to monitor and evaluate it. Just as the state cannot trust the weighty job of parenting to parents, it cannot trust the job of childcare to childcare providers. They will therefore have to be subjected to strict protocols, as befits a good bureaucracy. And those protocols will be designed by experts who have scientifically determined which conditioning techniques lead to the best adapted little New Citizen.

    During the coronavirus crisis, those experts—not the same, of course, because there are experts for every part of your private life—also took control of your health and that of your children. Just as you don’t know how to raise your child now, you didn’t know then how to take care of your own health and that of your offspring.

    We were all urged to get ourselves and our children vaccinated, especially so that grandma and grandpa would not get infected. Here and there, rare critical scientists suggested that a vaccine could not prevent infections, partly because coronaviruses mutate quickly. People didn’t listen to such nonsense–these scientists were thrown off Twitter and robbed of their jobs.

    And those who refused to get vaccinated were treated as second-class citizens. They were no longer allowed to go to a restaurant or a theater. In some countries they were banned from taking public transport. French President Macron believed that their lives should be made into a living hell. Totalitarian leaders are so convinced that their logic is the only correct one—one that will ultimately lead to Paradise—that all basic tenets of humanity get thrown overboard in pursuit of that logic.

    Unfortunately, the totalitarian logic, as it has throughout history, failed. The Great Guardian of American public health, Anthony Fauci, now says pretty much the same thing as those critical voices—that the virus is mutating too quickly to develop a vaccine that protects against infection on a long-term basis. Experts refer to this as the progressive nature of science. Apparently science progresses very quickly these days. Almost as fast as Pfizer’s share price during that same year.

    Chances are, childrearing expertise is a work in progress, as well. When parents notice that their little New Citizen, through his state upbringing, is not as happy and perfect as protocol had promised, their only consolation will be that by willingly giving their child to the state they have contributed to the advancement of Science.

    The problem with this kind of “science” is that it fails to recognize that education and health are both phenomena that deal primarily with individuality—a person’s unique characteristics as a subject. The literature on placebo and nocebo effects should in itself be enough to dispel any doubt: the subjective appreciation of a treatment determines its therapeutic effects. In the same way, the core of a good upbringing focuses on the individuality of the child. The educator must see the child in his singularity—he must love the child for his uniqueness. Without that love, education becomes indoctrination.

    A protocol-based education inevitably fails. Although the Great Parenting Experts will probably explain their failure in a different way. It will still be the parents’ fault, after all. And the Great State Education should actually start even earlier, preferably in Huxley’s bottling room.

    And if your love for your child should give you the courage to call the state to account, you will find that you actually have nowhere to go. Hannah Arendt noted about bureaucracies 50 years ago: “In a fully developed bureaucracy there is nobody left with whom one can argue, to whom one can present grievances, on whom the pressures of power can be exerted. Bureaucracy is the form of government in which everybody is deprived of political freedom, of the power to act; for the rule by Nobody is not no-rule, and where all are equally powerless, we have a tyranny without a tyrant.” (Hannah Arendt, “On Violence”)

    Just to say: I would be careful with the idea of an Ideal State Education. If the state has to protect children from their parents, parents have to protect their children from the state.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 23:00

  • Battered By Inflation, 90 Million Americans Struggle Paying Bills As Credit Card Usage Spikes
    Battered By Inflation, 90 Million Americans Struggle Paying Bills As Credit Card Usage Spikes

    A large swath of American consumers are facing financial hardship as they grapple with elevated living costs, record-high credit card use, and two years of negative real wage growth. This perfect storm could decimate financially fragile households in the next downturn. 

    As many as 89.1 million American adults (or about 38.5%) were found to experience some form of difficulty in covering expenses between April 26 and May 8, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from the Household Pulse Survey. This is up from 34.4% in 2022 and 26.7% during the same period in 2021. 

    Source: Bloomberg 

    The rising trend is alarming but not surprising. Consumers have been battered by two years of negative real wage growth.

    As wages fail to outpace the cost of living, many consumers have burned through savings and resorted to credit cards. The latest revolving credit data shows consumers appear to be ‘strong,’ but that’s only because they use their plastic cards more than ever to survive. 

    The Household Pulse Survey found struggling households were primarily based across West Coast and the South. 

    Source: Bloomberg 

    Compared with the same period last year, the survey found 2.7 million more households were relying on credit cards to cover expenses. 

    Source: Bloomberg 

    Consumers have record card debt and ultra-low savings rates and are paying some of the highest borrowing costs in a generation (the average interest rate on cards now exceeds 20%). This debt is becoming insurmountable for some as delinquencies rise. 

    And what we have now is new debit and credit card data published by the Bank of America Institute that shows not just spending slowdown for lower-income consumers, but also the upper-income cohort is finally starting to crack. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 22:40

  • FBI Concerned Jan. 6 Footage Would Expose Undercover Agents, Informants: Whistleblower
    FBI Concerned Jan. 6 Footage Would Expose Undercover Agents, Informants: Whistleblower

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    FBI Director Christopher Wray prepares to testify before the House Homeland Security Committee in the Cannon House Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington on Nov. 15, 2022. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

    FBI officials were concerned that footage from inside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, would show undercover agents and confidential informants, a whistleblower said in testimony revealed on May 18.

    George Hill, a retired supervisory intelligence analyst who worked out of the FBI’s Boston field office, recounted that the bureau’s Washington field office (WFO) pressured officials in Boston to open investigations on 138 people who attended a rally on Jan. 6, 2021, even though there were no indications the people violated the law.

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    Boston officials pushed back, saying they would need evidence, such as footage of individuals inside the Capitol, to open investigations of the individuals.

    “Happy to do it. Show us where they were inside the Capitol, and we’ll look into it,” one official was quoted as saying.

    “We can’t show you those videos unless you can tell us the exact time and place those individuals were inside the Capitol,” WFO officials responded, according to Hill.

    Hill said Boston officials questioned why they couldn’t get access to the tranche of some 11,000 hours of footage from inside the Capitol.

    “Because there may be—may be—UCs, undercover officers, or … confidential human sources, on those videos whose identity we need to protect,” Washington-based officials responded.

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    Hill recounted the discussions during testimony to the U.S. House’s Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government. The clip from the testimony was played during a hearing on May 18 and detailed in a report the panel released based on whistleblower disclosures.

    The FBI’s national headquarters and the WFO didn’t respond to requests for comment.

    In an image from an undated video, FBI whistleblower George Hill, right, testifies to Congress. (NTD via The Epoch Times)

    Wray Testimony

    Marcus Allen, another FBI employee who has also become a whistleblower, has alleged that he was retaliated against because he shared an email with other FBI workers that questioned whether FBI Director Christopher Wray was truthful while testifying to Congress.

    “You believe that Christopher Wray indicated that there were no confidential informants, no FBI assets that were present at the Capitol on Jan. 6 that were part of the violent riot, isn’t that right?” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), a member of the subcommittee, asked Allen.

    “Yes, sir,” Allen said.

    They appeared to be referring to testimony given behind closed doors.

    After playing the clip of Hill’s comments, Gaetz said, “You got retaliated against for the very thing, for saying the very thing that the Washington field office was telling Boston.”

    Wray told one congressional panel in a public hearing in late 2022 that he wouldn’t say whether the bureau had confidential sources embedded among the Jan. 6 protesters.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 22:20

  • TSA Pilot-Tests Controversial Facial Recognition Technology At These 16 Airports
    TSA Pilot-Tests Controversial Facial Recognition Technology At These 16 Airports

    The next time you find yourself at airport security, prepare to look directly into a camera. The Transportation Security Administration is quietly testing controversial facial recognition technology at airports nationwide. 

    AP News said 16 airports, including Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall and Reagan National near Washington, as well as ones in Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Orlando, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, San Jose, and Gulfport-Biloxi and Jackson in Mississippi, have installed kiosks with cameras (at some TSA checkpoints) that allow passengers to insert their government-issued ID and look into a camera as facial recognition technology asses if the ID and person match. 

    Here’s what to expect at airports utilizing this new technology:

    Travelers put their driver’s license into a slot that reads the card or place their passport photo against a card reader. Then they look at a camera on a screen about the size of an iPad, which captures their image and compares it to their ID. The technology is both checking to make sure the people at the airport match the ID they present and that the identification is in fact real. A TSA officer is still there and signs off on the screening. -AP

    “What we are trying to do with this is aid the officers to actually determine that you are who you say who you are,” said Jason Lim, identity management capabilities manager, during a recent demonstration of the technology to reporters at BWI. 

    TSA said the pilot test is voluntary, and passengers can opt out. The facial recognition technology has raised concerns among critics, like five senators (four Democrats and an Independent) who sent a letter in February to the TSA requesting the pilot test be halted immediately. 

    “Increasing biometric surveillance of Americans by the government represents a risk to civil liberties and privacy rights,” the senators said. 

    The letter continued:

    “We are concerned about the safety and security of Americans’ biometric data in the hands of authorized private corporations or unauthorized bad actors.

    “As government agencies grow their database of identifying images, increasingly large databases will prove more and more enticing targets for hackers and cybercriminals.”

    Meg Foster, a justice fellow at Georgetown University’s Center on Privacy and Technology, is concerned that even though the TSA says it’s not storing biometric data, it collects, “What if that changes in the future?” 

    Jeramie Scott, with the Electronic Privacy Information Center, said that even though the TSA facial recognition kiosks are being tested, it could be only a matter of time before it becomes a more permanent fixture at checkpoints. 

    Despite the US being a first-world country, it has third-world protections for its people. There’s an increasing number of government agencies that want your biometric data. Even the IRS wants your face. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 22:00

  • "Huge" Bearish Bets Gone Wrong Cost Carl Icahn $9 Billion In Losses
    “Huge” Bearish Bets Gone Wrong Cost Carl Icahn $9 Billion In Losses

    Regular readers may recall that there was a time back in 2016 when Carl Icahn emerged as one of the market’s biggest bears, warning CNBC that a lot of companies are “way overvalued” and that he was “very concerned about the market in the short-term“, not long after we first reported that the bearish exposure of the billionaire’s investment vehicle, Icahn Enterprises, had gone a record 149% net short.

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    And despite frequent at-the-time accusations that Uncle Carl was merely trying to find exit liquidity with his apocalyptic rhetoric, and was secretly bullish taking the other side of others’ liqujidations, we now learn that Icahn’s bearishness at a time when the S&P was moving higher year after year was not only real but ended up costing him dearly. 

    The FT has reported that Carl Icahn admitted he was wrong to make a “huge bet” that the market would crash after the ill-fated trade cost his firm nearly $9bn over roughly six years.

    According to a Financial Times analysis, the prominent activist investor lost about $1.8bn in 2017 on hedging positions that would have paid out if asset prices had tumbled before losing a further $7bn between 2018 and the first quarter of this year.

    “I’ve always told people there is nobody who can really pick the market on a short-term or an intermediate-term basis,” Icahn told the FT in an interview to discuss the analysis. “Maybe I made the mistake of not adhering to my own advice in recent years.”

    According to the FT, Icahn Enterprises started aggressively betting on a market collapse in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and became increasingly bolder in subsequent years, deploying a complex strategy that involved shorting broad market indices, individual companies, commercial mortgages and debt securities.

    At times, Icahn’s notional bearish exposure exceeded $15bn according to regulatory filings. “You never get the perfect hedge, but if I kept the parameters I always believed in . . . I would have been fine,” he said. “But I didn’t.”

    In retrospect, the perfect hedge would have been… a zero hedge. But we digress.

    Icahn Enterprises, the billionaire’s majority owned listed vehicle which has been hammered in recent weeks by losses as a result of a short report by another prominent bear, Hindenburg Research, reported a total of $4.3bn in short losses in 2020 and 2021 as markets quickly rebounded from the pandemic slump following the Federal Reserve’s huge stimulus.

    “I obviously believed the market was in for great trouble,” said Icahn. “[But] the Fed injected trillions of dollars into the market to fight Covid and the old saying is true: ‘don’t fight the Fed’.”

    It’s the same logic we applied in the aftermath of the bank failures in March, when contrary to consensus popular opinion that markets would crash, we said the chase was only starting as a result of the massive liquidity injection by the Fed to stabilize markets. We were right.

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    The trades, the FT writes, have left Icahn in a vulnerable position and threaten to undermine his status as one of the most feared activist investors on Wall Street.

    As Icahn’s short bets were margin called and drained billions of dollars from his investment firm, he plowed nearly $4bn of his own money into his publicly listed vehicle, filings show. That injection helped keep the firm’s internally calculated investment portfolio value relatively stable. Incidentally, it was back in 2016 when we first speculated that Icahn would be subject to margin calls and would have to inject fresh liquidity.

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    Icahn exposed himself to another risk by taking out a margin loan that was first disclosed in early 2022. Hindenburg’s report drew attention to the margin loan from Morgan Stanley, against which Icahn pledged 60% of his stake in Icahn Enterprises as collateral. Hindenburg argued this could lead to his business unravelling if the plunging stock price triggers a margin call that would force Icahn to liquidate some of his stake (which of course is standard operating practice for every margin loan and was used for years as the lynchpin of the bearish thesis against Tesla, much to the disappointment of countless bears who were steamrolled as the stock exploded higher).

    In a statement earlier this month that addressed Hindenburg’s allegations, Icahn Enterprises said Icahn was in “full compliance” with regards to all personal loans and announced a $500mn stock buyback authorisation in a bid to bolster its share price. With regards to its market valuation, the company said that “over time, [our] performance will speak for itself”.

    Icahn told the FT that he had used the margin loan to make additional investments and had billions of dollars of cash outside of his public vehicle. “Over the years I have made a great deal of money with money,” he said. “I like to have a war chest and doing that gave me more of a war chest,” he added, referring to the margin loan.

    Icahn Enterprises has warned that “a prolonged decline” in its stock price “could increase the likelihood of a foreclosure or forced sale” of Icahn’s stake if he was “subject to a ‘margin call’”.

    Ironically, after losing billions on his short bet when the Fed kept propping markets higher, it is a market crash that could now lead to ruin for the famous corporate raider and billionaire.

    Icahn’s bearish bets are the main reason his investment portfolio has lost money in every year since 2014. Over the roughly six year period that he lost $9bn on the short bets, the portfolio made about $6bn from his activist wagers, leaving the vehicle with an overall investment loss of nearly $3bn.

    Don’t fight the Fed, indeed.

    Separately, Icahn Enterprises generated $3.5bn of gains during the period by selling companies it controlled — including casinos and a railcar leasing business — that were held outside the investment portfolio.

    Over the past six years, the NAV of Icahn Enterprises fell from $7.9bn in 2017 to $5.6bn this month, net of fresh injections. That poses a potential problem for Icahn, who has historically taken the large $8 a share annual dividend in stock rather than cash. This has caused the number of outstanding shares to more than double over the roughly six-year period, pushing its net asset value per share down from $33 to roughly $16.

    Retail investors who took their dividends in cash would have received more than $40 a share during the same period.

    As pressure on his firm mounts, Icahn has been forced to rein in his short bets just as some investors fear that a regional banking crisis and the debt ceiling stand-off could result in a sharp market sell-off.

    “I still to some extent believe that this economy is not good and there are going to be problems ahead,” Icahn said. “We are still hedged, but not to the extent we were.”

    Which is precisely why they call it a max pain market: only after the last bear has been carted out feet first, will stocks finally crash.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 21:38

  • Imran Khan Is In A Standoff With Police Who Have Surrounded His House
    Imran Khan Is In A Standoff With Police Who Have Surrounded His House

    Former Prime Minister Imran Khan said Thursday that his prior arrest (and release after mass protests and unrest) is part of a broader government crackdown against his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in order to keep him out of power and prevent him from contesting the upcoming general election.

    “All the political parties and the establishment want me removed from the electoral field in an election year,” he told supporters while pointing out that police starting the day prior surrounded his house and blocked roads.

    On Wednesday he had said his arrest was “imminent” – but it appears police have since backed off the “siege” of his house following the threat of clashes with his many supporters that also showed up to the neighborhood.

    Image: News18

    Police claimed his house was sheltering fugitives who engaged in violent protests last week in the wake of his controversial arrest on on a range of corruption charges.

    This week Pakistan’s military promised swift justice for those who spread mayhem, vandalism and violence against the army and police:

    Rioters and their backers who attacked Pakistan’s state assets and military installations during protests that erupted after the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan will be tried under army laws, the country’s civilian and military leaders have said.

    The decision was announced on Tuesday after a meeting of the National Security Committee chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

    Sharif’s office followed with a statement: “The meeting endorsed to bring the miscreants, the planners who incited for violence and their facilitators to dock by trying them under constitutional provisions of concerned laws, including Pakistan Army Act and Official Secrets Act.”

    “Whoever are the planners and whoever incited these miscreants … they don’t deserve any leniency,” Sharif said. Khan has all along blamed Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir for his arrest and conspiring to keep him out of power.

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    At least eight people were killed (some sources say more) and many hundreds wounded in the pro-Khan demonstrations and riots, including some among the army and security services, who were called to restore order in Islamabad. Buildings, including a national radio broadcast center, were burned to the ground, and army bases were also breached in some cases. But the military is now vowing “no more”…

    General Asim Munir has said that “planned and orchestrated tragic incidents” of May 9, the day military installations were attacked, will never be allowed again at any cost, ARY News reported.

    The army chief during his visit to Sialkot Garrison said: “No one will be allowed to disrespect our martyrs and their monuments. They are a source of inspiration and pride for the rank and file of the Armed Forces, Law Enforcement Agencies, Government officials and the people of Pakistan.”

    Meanwhile, here’s where things stand Thursday regarding the showdown outside Khan’s residence, according to regional media:

    Pakistani police kept up their siege around the home of Imran Khan as a 24-hour deadline given to the former PM to hand over suspects ‘sheltered inside’ expired on Thursday afternoon. The siege and the authorities’ demand for the suspects, wanted in violent protests over Khan’s recent detention, has angered the former prime minister’s supporters and is raising concerns about more clashes between them and the security forces.

    Imran Khan was freed from custody over the weekend and returned to his home in an upscale district of Lahore. Dozens of his supporters have been staying there with him, along with private guards. Police, who on Wednesday surrounded the residence, say they want 40 suspects handed over. The ultimatum for Khan ends at 2 p.m. local time.

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    If Khan is arrested again, and this remains a likely scenario, the country will ignite again – given tensions continue to be at boiling point over Khan’s fate, and anti-government unrest has continued in some locations.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 21:20

  • The Numbers Are In On How Biden-Era Funding Is Skewing Scientific Research Ever-Wokeward
    The Numbers Are In On How Biden-Era Funding Is Skewing Scientific Research Ever-Wokeward

    Authored by Steve Miller via RealClear Wire,

    While pushing record spending for research and development, the Biden administration is working not just to advance science but also progressive ideology. In line with the administration’s “whole of government” commitment to diversity, equity, and inclusion, recent grants and requests for proposals from the National Science Foundation encompass research that: 

    Critics, including some scientists, claim such projects are outside the scope of the National Science Foundation, whose $10 billion annual budget is one of the government’s prime mechanisms for supporting basic research in the non-medical sciences. Through 11,000 awards each year to academic and corporate researchers, the NSF sets the agenda for inquiry in a wide variety of fields including computer science, environmental science, mathematics, engineering, and the social and psychological sciences. 

    “People should realize that [we] are paying tax money to fund science that should be going to help improve people’s lives,” said Leif Rasmussen, a research Ph.D. student at Northwestern University who has analyzed NSF research grant funding in a white paper titled, “Increasing Politicization and Homogeneity in Scientific Funding.”  

    “That money isn’t always going to that [and] is instead pushing an agenda in which people have to use the right words,” Rasmussen adds.  

    His research shows that the emergence of politically driven science did not begin with the Biden administration. He found that 3% of successfully executed NSF grants in 1990 included indicative terms such as “equity,” “inclusion,” or “diversity.” In 2020, such words appeared in 30% of grants. And the number rose to 36% of all executed grants in 2021, the first year of the Biden administration and the last year he has numbers for. 

    “These types of grants claim diversity is inherently beneficial to scientific progress, but ironically, that statement has not come anywhere close to being validated scientifically,” Rasmussen added in an email. He noted that the “NSF reviews are conducted by a community of academic scientists and so the community is still responsible for the ideological turn.” 

    An NSF spokeswoman, Martha Vilarchao Klinck, defended the foundation’s DEI efforts.  

    “For more than two decades, NSF has been engaged in a concerted effort to address racial disparity,” she said in an email. “NSF’s extensive portfolio of funded activities aimed at broadening participation in STEM [science, technology, engineering, and math] provides a strong foundation for such efforts. We continue to work with the STEM community, government agencies and other stakeholders to better understand the barriers and how best to support efforts to increase diversity, equity, and inclusion in STEM.” 

    The increasing politicization of NSF grants echoes the embrace of progressive ideology across the sciences, including the medical sector,  a focus of earlier RealClearInvestigations reporting. 

    Many medical schools now require a DEI statement from applicants, and some course studies begin with the preconception of implicit bias in the healthcare system. That assumption is embedded in grants from the National Institutes of Health, the primary source of federal funding.  

    “There is plenty of research that can no longer get funded by the NIH due to political correctness,” said Michael Bailey, a professor of psychology at Northwestern University. Sexuality, for example, is very difficult to research objectively, as progressive definitions blur distinctions between male and female. 

    “Both political sides have been less concerned about the truth over the years, but these days, the left is far more deranged and destructive than the right,” Bailey said. “And that doesn’t mean it can’t go the other way at some point.”   

    Among the aims of NSF funding and programs is a social goal that goes beyond increasing scientific knowledge: boosting the participation of minorities and women in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics – an endeavor the federal government has spent millions of dollars pursuing since the early 80s, when encouraging girls and young women in the STEM disciplines was the focus.  

    Government-funded research for science has long been considered the most objective way to learn about the world and its workings. In the past, private funding sources have delivered results influenced by outside interests.

    In 1953, under increasing scrutiny for the alleged link between tobacco and cancer, the tobacco industry funded studies that, it insisted, showed the cancer link was tenuous. In 1967, the sugar industry did the same thing as public health officials probed the link between sugar and heart disease. Both industries were skewered publicly and legally for their financial connection to the studies, which were later discredited.  

    In today’s echoes of the tobacco and sugar industries, publicly funded research derives results favorable to supporters ranging from top-notch medical schools to the federal government to political advocates. Research that aligns with a political stance is celebrated as “the science” for validating activist claims of existential threats from a climate crisis or the contested benefits of “gender-affirming” care. Such research is often rooted in assertions of systemic or institutional “racism” espoused mostly by progressives.  

    A RealClearInvestigations review of advertised research grants and funded projects over the past three decades finds that while purely scientific research continues, ideology continues a steady advance into many programs. The Biden administration has issued two executive orders, part of its “whole of government” approach to addressing self-defined inequities in federal government programs. Both ordered federal agencies to advance plans to address “underserved” communities, and both assume entrenched racial bias in the federal system. 

    The policies extend across the federal government’s spectrum, touching scientific research administrated by all executive agencies.  

    For research pitches to the federal Bureau of Land Management, the project seeking funding “must assist BLM in meeting … one of the following priorities of the Biden-Harris Administration,” the grant notice states, listing Biden’s executive orders, including addressing climate change, advancing racial equity, and employing union labor. 

    “These academic forms of reparations are a good glimpse of what priorities are,” said John Sailer, a fellow at the National Association of Scholars, a conservative advocacy group. “They see race as a frontier to be transformed and utilized as a tool for their social goal.” 

    The NSF funds many studies regarding climate change, and almost all assume it is manmade and requires vigorous action to address. Duke University, for example, has issued a “climate commitment” to “address the climate crisis by creating sustainable and equitable solutions.” The North Carolina school today is offering a number of NSF-funded grants in keeping with its platform, including proposed research that will “contribute equitable solutions to climate change mitigation” – linking the research funding to carrying out work that supports the university’s climate concerns. 

    There is notable pushback. While meteorology and other topics related to the climate are worthy research pursuits, the research “should not push climate change” with a foregone conclusion, said John Staddon, professor emeritus of psychology at Duke University and author of “Science in an Age of Unreason,” which examines how social causes have impacted science. “Yet the university will push faculty members to get research in that area.” 

    In an email, Duke research spokesman Karl Bates said, “I’ve been writing about the scientific findings and trends since 1990 and it’s very real. Any controversy … is manufactured. I’m confident I speak for the university when I say we find these ‘teach both sides’ arguments about climate to be unpersuasive.” 

    Critics argue that the grants approved only tell part of the story of social justice diktats in research: There is the research not executed because it does not align with the prevailing narrative. Studies of correlations between race and IQ, for example, are nearly verboten. 

    “Most science is boring and people don’t get emotional about talking about protein folding or battery efficiency, and that allows science to progress,” said Stephen Hsu, who was forced out of his job as senior vice president for research and innovation at Michigan State University in 2020 after he commented on research regarding natural intelligence and the possibility of biological traits in populations. “When you get into these areas that are emotionally charged, all bets are off and you can have one paradigm dominate, and that field doesn’t make any progress.” 

    Hsu, who remains a professor at MSU, said funding for research on differences in natural intelligence among populations “is sensitive … no one can get money to study the genetic basis for intelligence.” 

    While the science research system worked relatively well for decades, “scientists believe they are intellectually independent, and they can be,” said J. Scott Turner, a biologist and emeritus professor of biology with the State University of New York in Syracuse. “Now, when this funding is overseen by certain entities, they want certain results,” he said.  

    This equation, Turner said, also casts doubt on what should be scientifically derived information.  

    “It’s a political game now. The death of science should be a source of skepticism. A reality check on government programs is now gone, it’s just not there anymore.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 21:00

  • Biden's Suitcase-Stealing They/Them Nuke Waste Klepto Guru Arrested For Being "Fugitive From Justice"
    Biden’s Suitcase-Stealing They/Them Nuke Waste Klepto Guru Arrested For Being “Fugitive From Justice”

    And so, the career arc of Biden’s colorful (literally) “nuclear waste guru”, Sam Brinton, has come to an end after the the bisexual, suitcase stealing they/them was arrested Wednesday night for reportedly being a “fugitive from justice,” according to law enforcement officials.

    They/Them

    Brinton’s “career” at Biden’s Department of Energy as a nuclear waste official, crashed after he was accused twice last year of stealing airport luggage, then found guilty in both incidents. Of course, he was not given jail time in either case; one can only imagine a Soros-judge was involved in both.

    According to official records reviewed by Fox News Digital, Brinton was taken into custody on Wednesday night at his home in Rockville, Md., in suburban Washington, D.C.

    While authorities did not provide further details about the arrest, they said it was led by Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority Police, the lead law enforcement agency for both Washington, D.C., area airports, and that Brinton is being held on a no-bond status awaiting an extradition hearing.

    It wasn’t immediately clear if he was held in a men’s or women’s holding area.

    Police charged Brinton in October 2022 with stealing a traveler’s baggage worth $2,325 from the suitcase carousel at the Minneapolis-St. Paul Airport after flying in from Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Washington on Sept. 16. Three months later, in December 2022, Las Vegas prosecutors charged Brinton in connection with the July 6 theft of a suitcase with a total estimated worth of $3,670 at Harry Reid International Airport, in Las Vegas, Nevada.

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    Brinton faced up to 15 years total for the thefts.

    The Energy Department announced in December 2022  that Brinton had departed the agency but decline to further comment, Fox Digital also reported.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 20:40

  • Gaetz Demands DOJ Indict FBI Agents Following Durham Report
    Gaetz Demands DOJ Indict FBI Agents Following Durham Report

    Authored by Lorenz Duchamps via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) has suggested that the FBI should be defunded and its agents criminally indicted after special counsel John Durham concluded this week that the federal agency should have never launched an investigation into whether former President Donald Trump colluded with Russia during the 2016 election.

    Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) delivers remarks in the House Chamber at the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington on Jan. 6, 2023. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

    Durham’s 300-plus page report (pdf) asserted that the FBI rushed into the probe without having any evidence that officials from the Trump campaign had contacted any Russian intelligence officer.

    During an interview with Newsmax on Monday, Gaetz accused the FBI and Department of Justice (DOJ) of being politically biased in the probe, alleging the agency has become “the enforcement wing of the Democratic Party to play offense against Trump,” describing its actions as “very ugly for the future of a democracy where the people make the choices.”

    “The report takes great lengths to point out the number of times where Trump was targeted in a way no other American would be,” Gaetz said. “In essence, the FBI has now become a disinformation and election interference enterprise here in our country. It’s very damning for them, the Steele Dossier was nonsense, the probable cause standard even to originate an investigation … was never met, and you had a secret court that was lied to.”

    “I think we have to deauthorize, defang, and defund many of these authorities and entities and different task forces that actually converted the just and righteous act of protecting our country with the desire to have a particular political candidate win or lose,” he added.

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    The congressman also argued that if the probe had been driven by a GOP candidate—or an operation to help a Republican candidate’s campaign—it wouldn’t have concluded with just a report, but with “real significant indictments.”

    Gaetz went on to say that he’s disappointed the report did not recommend any indictments in addition to the three people Durham already prosecuted, pointing out he believes more people should have been prosecuted as a result of the investigation.

    “The only indictment that Durham is able to cite here is the indictment of Kevin Clinesmith,” Gaetz said, referring to the former FBI lawyer who doctored an email to state that a one-time Trump campaign associate was not a CIA asset when the associate actually was. Clinesmith has since pleaded guilty and received probation.

    “And guess what? He’s already back to practicing law,” he added. “Got his law license back, and practicing law here in D.C. now. Insufficient.”

    FBI Responds

    The FBI responded to the Durham report hours after the DOJ published it on its website, acknowledging “missteps” in its 2016–2017 investigation into the alleged Trump-Russia ties.

    “The conduct in 2016 and 2017 that Special Counsel Durham examined was the reason that current FBI leadership already implemented dozens of corrective actions, which have now been in place for some time,” the FBI wrote in a statement. “Had those reforms been in place in 2016, the missteps identified in the report could have been prevented.”

    Meanwhile, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) echoed similar sentiments during an interview on Fox News’ “Sean Hannity” Monday night, agreeing with Gaetz that the FBI’s funding should be cut, adding he believes there are “double standards” in the DOJ’s treatment of Republicans and Democrats.

    “The only way we can hold them accountable is to go after one thing that everybody cares about—the money,” Jordan said. “We have to look at the power of the purse if we’re ever going to get control of these agencies, who did this not just once, but multiple times,” he added.

    In a post on Twitter Monday, Gaetz said the Durham report is an “absolutely DAMNING treatise on the weaponization” of federal agencies against Trump, adding Monday’s development “should be a clarion call for legislative reform.”

    “In a proper world, Republicans and Democrats would be able to work together on this,” Gaetz said. “It wasn’t that long ago that the FBI was a right-wing organization, weaponized against civil rights leaders and others. And it was wrong then, and it’s wrong now.”

    Trump also seized on the report in a series of posts on Truth Social this week, stating the investigative report indicates the federal government launched a coordinated effort to interfere with the 2016 election.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 20:20

  • Fertility App Premom Shared Sensitive User Data With Chinese Firms
    Fertility App Premom Shared Sensitive User Data With Chinese Firms

    Digital healthcare on smartphones certainly benefits users, though preserving privacy isn’t one of them.

    A popular fertility-tracking app called “Premom” (owned by Easy Healthcare) is under fire for sharing users’ health information with third-party advertisers, according to a new Federal Trade Commission complaint. 

    The ovulation tracker, menstrual calendar, and fertility tool allegedly shared sensitive user data with third parties through software development kits that were integrated into the app.

    In August 2020, the International Digital Accountability Council found Premom shared user location data and device identifiers with two Chinese companies without user consent. 

    “Ultimately, this could allow these third parties to associate these fertility and pregnancy Custom App Events to a specific individual,” the FTC complaint said.  

    Tech Crunch dives deeper into identifying who those specific Chinese companies were:

    Easy Healthcare also allegedly shared users’ sensitive identifiable data with two China-based mobile analytics companies known for “suspect privacy practices,” according to a statement by Connecticut attorney general William Tong. Data including IMEI numbers — strings of numbers tied to individual devices — and precise geolocation data were transferred to analytics firms Jiguang and Umeng between 2018 and 2020, according to the FTC.

    The FTC alleges that the company did so knowing that Jiguang and Umeng could use this data for their own business purposes or could transfer the data to additional third parties, and says Easy Healthcare only stopped sharing this data when Google notified the app maker in 2020 that the transfer of data to Umeng violated its Google Play Store policies.

    Samuel Levine, director of the FTC’s Bureau of Consumer Protection, said the health app “broke its promises and compromised consumers’ privacy.” 

    The Department of Justice settled with Easy Healthcare for $100,000 for violating the FTC’s Health Breach Notification Rule. And the app company also settled with Connecticut, Oregon, and the District of Columbia for $100,000. 

    This brings us to the popular video app TikTok, owned-by Chinese firm ByteDance Ltd., with over 150 million users in America. Can you imagine the volume of personal data potentially being transmitted back to China?

    *   *   *

    Here’s the FTC complaint. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 20:00

  • Post-9/11 US Conflicts Killed Over 4.5 Million People: Study
    Post-9/11 US Conflicts Killed Over 4.5 Million People: Study

    Authored by Brett Wilkins via Common Dreams,

    The post-9/11 War on Terror may have caused at least 4.5 million deaths in around half a dozen countries, according to a report published Monday by the preeminent academic institution studying the costs, casualties, and consequences of a war in which U.S. bombs and bullets are still killing and wounding people in multiple nations.

    The new report from the Costs of War Project at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs shows “how death outlives war” by examining people killed indirectly by the War on Terror in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen.

    Image: The Gainesville Sun

    “In a place like Afghanistan, the pressing question is whether any death can today be considered unrelated to war,” Stephanie Savell, Costs of War co-director and author of the report, said in a statement. “Wars often kill far more people indirectly than in direct combat, particularly young children.”

    The publication “reviews the latest research to examine the causal pathways that have led to an estimated 3.6-3.7 million indirect deaths in post-9/11 war zones,” while “the total death toll in these war zones could be at least 4.5-4.6 million and counting, though the precise mortality figure remains unknown.”

    As The Washington Post — which first reported on the analysis — details:

    “Since 2010, a team of 50 scholars, legal experts, human rights practitioners, and physicians participating in the Costs of War project have kept their own calculations. According to their latest assessment, more than 906,000 people, including 387,000 civilians, died directly from post-9/11 wars. Another 38 million people have been displaced or made refugees. The U.S. federal government, meanwhile, has spent over $8 trillion on these wars, the research suggests.

    But Savell said the research indicates that exponentially more people, especially children and the most impoverished and marginalized populations, have been killed by the effects of war—mounting poverty, food insecurity, environmental contamination, the ongoing trauma of violence, and the destruction of health and public infrastructure, along with private property and means of livelihood.”

    According to the report, “The large majority of indirect war deaths occur due to malnutrition, pregnancy and birth-related problems, and many illnesses including infectious diseases and noncommunicable diseases like cancer.”

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    One 2012 study found that more than half of the babies born in the Iraqi city of Fallujah between 2007 and 2010 had birth defects. Among the pregnant woman surveyed in the study, more than 45 percent experienced miscarriages in the two-year period following the 2004 U.S. assaults on Fallujah. Geiger counter readings of depleted uranium-contaminated sites in densely populated Iraqi urban areas have consistently shown radiation levels that are 1,000 to 1,900 times higher than normal.

    The study also found that some deaths “also result from injuries due to war’s destruction of infrastructure such as traffic signals and from reverberating trauma and interpersonal violence.”

    Savell said that “warring parties who damage infrastructure with an impact on population health have a moral responsibility to provide quick and effective assistance and repairs.”

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    “The United States government, while not solely responsible for the damage, has a significant obligation to invest in humanitarian assistance and reconstruction in post-9/11 war zones,” she added. “The U.S. government could do far more than it currently is to act on this responsibility.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 19:40

  • Jim Reid: If You Saw This Presentation Centuries In The Future – What Do You Think Happens Next?
    Jim Reid: If You Saw This Presentation Centuries In The Future – What Do You Think Happens Next?

    In a note to clients, the team at Deutsche Bank led by veteran strategist Jim Reid paints an ominous outlook for the US economy. The trillion-dollar likely swirling around Reid’s head revolves around the potential consequences of the most aggressive hiking cycle in history, specifically whether it could trigger a hard economic landing. In his report titled “A Time Capsule For The Future,” he uses an array of macro data over decades, pointing out what contributed to past downturns and asking whether today is similar and if history repeats.  

    Reid provides nearly two centuries of US money supply (year-on-year % change) data that shows the fastest collapse since the 1930s. This is a major red flag for the economy and capital markets, and past collapses have led to panics, recessions, and depressions. 

    With the money supply shrinking year-on-year since December, another alarming development has occurred: the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank. Even though JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently said, “This part of the crisis is over,” Reid warned the regional banking fiasco “risks credit contraction going forward.” 

    Moving onto real estate, Reid asks: “Will we look back on this chart and conclude it was obvious that big falls were still ahead of us in terms of house prices?” 

    And readers remember we’ve pointed out (read: here) how the regional bank turmoil has spread to the commercial real estate sector. Reid tends to agree with our view of the CRE downturn here as lending standards tighten. 

    Considering the contraction in money supply, turmoil in the banking sector, and looming problems in the residential and commercial real estate markets, Reid shows DB’s recession model predicts a 100% chance of a recession within the next 12 months. 

    He draws a horizontal line across a chart showing that the Fed’s number of hikes over the last 12 months has only occurred twice during the previous seven decades, one in the mid-1970s and the other in the early 1980s, leading to recession. 

    Then there is the yield curve: the 2s10s has inverted before all of the last 10 US recessions, and it takes 12-18 months for the lag on average, but some cycles take longer….

    To simplify, Reid notes the “3-month rule” tightens up the gap between US 2s10s inversion and recession to 8-19 months. That takes us to March ’23 – February ’24. The one exception is the Fed policy error of the mid-1960s.

    Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Leading Index continues to slide, one of the longest streaks of decline since ‘Lehman.’ 

    As the economic storm gathers, he shows excessive household savings continue to be depleted. There goes the biggest driver of the US economy in the coming quarters (unless consumers continue to leverage up with credit card debt). 

    So with that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the key “lag” indicators, starting with the US Senior Loan Officers Survey (SLOOS), which, as we noted recently, has painted a “dire picture” for the economy as “Loan Standards Are Approaching Record Tightness As Loan Demand Plummets,” and which leads GDP by two quarters…

    … and leads to a surge in high yield defaults by around three quarters…

    “Banks’ willingness to lend to consumers never been this weak without it leading to an imminent recession…,” Reid noted. 

    History has shown us that interest rate hiking cycles end with a bang. 

    Separately, interest rate swaps are pricing a terminal rate of around 500bps with 2.5 cuts through January 2024. 

    “Remember that the Fed have never begun to cut rates with unemployment this low… let alone when core CPI is simultaneously running above 5%,” Reid pointed out. 

    Returning to capital markets, he said, “Given that a US recession is yet to start it’s not unreasonable to suggest the bottom is still to come assuming we’re right on the 2023 recession call..” 

    Adding a mild recession in line with the 1960s and 70s could still be bad for asset prices. 

    Valuations are still at lofty levels. 

    Given all of this, the biggest question is whether anyone in the Biden admin realizes that economic storm clouds are gathering ahead of the 2024 election year. 

    There is much more in the full must-read presentation from Jim Reid, available to pro subscribers in the usual place.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 19:20

  • US Supreme Court Allows Illinois Gun Control Law To Remain In Effect
    US Supreme Court Allows Illinois Gun Control Law To Remain In Effect

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The US Supreme Court on Wednesday sided with the state of Illinois over a strict new gun control law, denying an emergency request for an injunction.

    Justices of the US Supreme Court pose for their official photo at the Supreme Court in Washington on Oct. 7, 2022. (Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images)

    The measure, which bans what the state considers “assault weapons,” will remain intact while the case brought by an Illinois gun store owner works its way through lower courts. The owner filed a petition with the high court to block the ban on a wide variety of firearms as well as “large capacity” magazines.

    No explanation was given for the denial by Justice Amy Coney Barrett.

    The  case is currently in front of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 7th Circuit, which is based in Chicago. The decision is likely to be appealed regardless of the outcome.

    More viaThe Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    In a separate case, a federal judge blocked the gun law. However, the 7th Circuit Court has placed that decision on hold in the meantime.

    The 7th Circuit appeals court also has expedited consideration of at least five different cases challenging the Illinois law. Meanwhile, the state Supreme Court is considering a similar lawsuit against the measure.

    Earlier this year, the state enacted the “Protect Illinois Communities Act” that bars the purchase, sale, delivery, and manufacture of so-called assault weapons and magazines that hold more than 10 rounds. It specifically named AK-47-style rifles and AR-15-style rifles as “assault weapons” under the law, which also requires those who previously purchased semi-automatic rifles to register their ownership with Illinois State Police.

    According to an FAQ of the law, “No, Illinois residents cannot purchase an AR-15 or assault weapon beginning January 11, 2023, unless subject to one of the narrow exemptions.” The FAQ also states that the law bans “a magazine, belt, drum, feed strip, or similar device that has a capacity of, or that can be readily restored or converted to accept, more than 10 rounds of ammunition for long guns and more than 15 rounds of ammunition for handguns; or any combination of parts from which a device described can be assembled.”

    Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a Democrat, signed the bill into law.

    “For the past four years, my administration and my colleagues in the State Capitol have been battling the powerful forces of the NRA to enshrine the strongest and most effective gun violence legislation that we possibly can,” he said. “I couldn’t be prouder to say that we got it done. And we will keep fighting—bill by bill, vote by vote, and protest by protest—to ensure that future generations only hear about massacres like Highland Park, Sandy Hook, and Uvalde in their textbooks.”

    Legal Challenges

    Second Amendment advocate groups have repeatedly criticized the law as unconstitutional, and gun rights activists, including Robert Bevis, a gun store owner in Naperville, filed lawsuits to block the state law as well as a similar local ordinance that was passed in the city of Highland Park. Those laws were sparked following last July’s mass shooting at a Highland Park Fourth of July parade that left multiple people dead.

    “The challenged laws ban arms commonly possessed by law-abiding citizens for lawful purposes. Heller’s central holding is that a categorical ban on arms held by law-abiding citizens is unconstitutional,” his lawyers wrote to the 7th Circuit judges last month, referring to a 2008 ruling by the Supreme Court on the landmark District of Columbia v. Heller case, in which the high court found that a District law regulating gun ownership to be unconstitutional.

    Contending that Bevis’s constitutional rights were violated, his lawyers added: “One would suppose that the district court would apply the Heller test or, failing that, at least explain why it believed the test is not applicable. The district court did neither. It erred when it simply ignored Heller’s central holding. Nowhere in its opinion does it apply, or even acknowledge, Heller’s holding in this regard.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 19:00

  • "I've Been Here": Feinstein Seems Unaware Of Months-Long Senate Absence
    “I’ve Been Here”: Feinstein Seems Unaware Of Months-Long Senate Absence

    California Senator Dianne Feinstein returned to Washington last week after a nearly three-month absence as she battled a stubborn case of shingles. However, in a Tuesday conversation with reporters, the 89-year-old appeared unaware that she’d been in California from February to May.  

    As she was being rolled off an elevator via wheelchair, Slate‘s Jim Newell asked how she was feeling. “Oh, I’m feeling fine,” Feinstein replied. “I have a problem with the leg.” Asked what was wrong with it, Feinstein said, “Well, nothing that’s anyone concern but mine.”

    The picture of health: 89-year-old Dianne Feinstein as she returned to the Senate on May 10 (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images via Insider)

    That’s when things took an unsettling turn, according to Newell as well as the Los Angeles Times‘ Benjamin Oreskes. When another reporter asked how colleagues had been responding to her return to the Senate, Feinstein said, “No, I haven’t been gone…You should follow the—I haven’t been gone. I’ve been working.”

    Charitably exploring the best possible interpretation, the reporter asked, “You’ve been working from home…is what you’re saying?” 

    “No,” replied an increasingly irritated Feinstein. “I’ve been here. I’ve been voting. Please. Either know or don’t know.” Feinstein missed more than 90 floor votes while she recuperated in San Francisco. 

    After deflecting a question about Democratic House reps calling for her resignation, she was wheeled off before she could do more damage. 

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    Tuesday’s incident is just the latest of many illustrations of Feinstein’s apparent deepening senility. As we wrote upon her return to Washington, “Feinstein may have beaten shingles, but her declining mental health is arguably of even greater concern.”

    Her mental decline has been chronicled by the most liberal of major newspapers, with the New York Times and San Francisco Chronicle last year publishing insider accounts of Feinstein being unable to remember names, meetings and phone conversations. The Times described her as sometimes “walk[ing] around in a state of befuddlement.” 

    An unnamed Democratic legislator told the Times that, in a meeting with Feinstein in February 2022, the legislator had to keep reintroducing him- or herself, and repeatedly help her find her purse, as well as answering identical small-talk queries over and over. 

    The oldest member of Congress, Feinstein will turn 90 on June 22. In February of this year, she announced that she will not be running for re-election — and just a few hours later, appeared to be unaware of the historic announcement.  

    Feinstein sits on the Judiciary Committee, which was left with a 10-10 tie during her long absence, thwarting Democratic ambitions to stock federal benches with leftist judges — and prompting California Rep. Ro Khanna and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — both Democrats — to call for her resignation. 

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    Asked Wednesday if Feinstein is equipped to carry out her duties, Democrat and Judiciary Chairman Dick Durbin told CNN, “I can’t be the judge of that…she has to make that decision for herself and her family as to going forward.” Fellow Dem Sheldon Whitehouse was blunter, telling Slate‘s Newell, “I’m gonna leave that to the medics.”

    Durbin’s reply assumes Feinstein is capable of making such a decision. That’s a reach, particularly when you consider that a resignation would go against the interests of her handlers who’d surely like to keep their Senate jobs as long as possible.

    For now, Feinstein is still managing to serve the Blue Team’s interest. As Sen. Richard Blumenthal told Slate, “There’s one job that no one else can do for us, which is to vote. And she’s been doing that job in the last few days, and so far as I can tell, she’s been doing well.”

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    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 18:40

  • Feds Start Enrolling Volunteers For mRNA Flu Vaccine Trial
    Feds Start Enrolling Volunteers For mRNA Flu Vaccine Trial

    Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Vaccine developers at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) are enrolling healthy adult Americans to test an experimental universal influenza vaccine using mRNA technology.

    A syringe with an influenza vaccine sits on a table in an Oct. 14, 2020, file image. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

    The Phase 1 trial will be conducted at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, the NIAID said on Monday. Researchers will test the experimental vaccine, dubbed H1ssF-3928 mRNA-LNP, for safety and its ability to induce an immune response.

    For this early-stage trial, the federal research agency is looking for up to 50 healthy volunteers aged 18 through 49. There will be three 10-participant groups receiving 10, 25, and 50 micrograms of the experimental vaccine, respectively. After evaluation of the data to determine an optimum dosage, an additional 10 participants will be administered with the optimum dosage.

    The study also will include a group of participants to receive a currently available flu vaccine that protects against the four most common flu virus strains in circulation.

    The NIAID said it expects to collect all the data needed by March 15, 2024, and conclude the study by Aug. 30, 2024.

    The name H1ssF is an abbreviation of H1 hemagglutinin stabilized stem ferritin, meaning that the vaccine uses the “stem” part of the influenza hemagglutinin protein displayed on the surface of a ferritin nanoparticle as the immunogen. The “stem” remains largely unchanged throughout influenza mutations, as compared to the “head,” which constantly changes as the virus mutates into different strains in a process called “antigenic drift.”

    Most of the body’s immune response to the influenza virus is directed toward the ever-changing “head” of the hemagglutinin protein, and hence seasonal influenza vaccines must be updated each year. NIAID researchers believe that a vaccine that targets the “stem” without the distraction of the “head” could offer stronger and longer-lasting immunity.

    The other part of the experimental vaccine’s name, mRNA-LNP, means that the messenger RNA-encoded immunogen is delivered inside a lipid nanoparticle (LNP). The vaccine doesn’t contain the immunogen, but uses LNP-coated mRNA to instruct the host cells to assemble the immunogenic proteins that can trigger the production of effective antibodies.

    Safety Risks

    The same mRNA technology is used to make both Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines, two of the most administered vaccinations in the world. Despite their widespread use, championed by governments of many countries under the premise that the shots are safe and effective, the mRNA vaccines continue to spur concerns about serious side effects, including a heightened risk of cardiac-related deaths in healthy teenagers and young adults after vaccination.

    Last October, the Florida Department of Health issued a warning against giving young men mRNA COVID shots, citing an analysis (pdf) that found “an 84 percent increase in the relative incidence of cardiac-related death among males 18-39 years old” within 28 days following the jab.

    “With a high level of global immunity to COVID-19, the benefit of vaccination is likely outweighed by this abnormally high risk of cardiac-related death among men in this age group. Non-mRNA vaccines were not found to have these increased risks,” said Dr. Joseph Ladapo, Florida’s surgeon general.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 18:20

  • Gunmaker Heckler & Koch Deletes Woke Tweet Rant After Backlash
    Gunmaker Heckler & Koch Deletes Woke Tweet Rant After Backlash

    When will companies take the time to vet their communications departments, especially after the expensive advertising snafu by Bud Light involving the promotion of identity politics? Consumers are growing increasingly fed up with companies championing all things ‘woke’ and are participating in boycotts in response. 

    The latest example is a woman managing German gun manufacturer Heckler & Koch (known for the MP5 submachine gun) who apparently went rogue on the company’s official Twitter account, defending Miller Lite’s woke feminist advert. 

    The PR blunder by H&K has all but been deleted, but Breitbart News found the now-deleted tweets that read:

    “Wow- woke? Allow me to translate: objectifying women was never a good marketing strategy. In the firearms industry, that was a prominent strategy up until recently. Many industries have done that (including beer corps).”

    As an actual woman typing this, I’ll use more words for you to comprehend: using bunnies to sell products is trash marketing. Supporting women by not doing that is good.”

    Breitbart reported it all started when Graham Allen tweeted the controversial Miller Light commercial, expressing the possibility of a ‘Bud Light moment.’

    Allen wrote: 

    “Did NOBODY learn from Bud Light’s COSTLY mistake? Miller Lite just dropped this WOKE advertisement!!! When will these beer companies learn????”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Then H&K’s Twitter account responded to Graham Allen with this:

    The Germans were very swift and deleted the tweets and released this statement, “H&K does not engage in identity politics. A policy was violated. Changes were made.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “Next up is an official apology, but it’s a good start,” TurningPoint USA contributor Lauren Chen tweeted at H&K. 

    Others thanked H&K for “dealing with that nonsense quickly and correctly. This is the way to go.” 

    Hmmm.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/18/2023 – 18:00

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