Oct 30

Today’s News 30th October 2024

  • Turkiye Debunked Bild's Fake News About India Reportedly Vetoing Its BRICS Membership Request
    Turkiye Debunked Bild’s Fake News About India Reportedly Vetoing Its BRICS Membership Request

    Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

    There was never any reason to take this report seriously in the first place…

    German outlet Bild reported late last week that India allegedly vetoed Turkiye’s BRICS membership request over its ties with Pakistan, which prompted Turkiye’s Center for Combating Disinformation to respond by clarifying that the membership process wasn’t even on the Kazan Summit’s agenda. The Turkish foreign policy expert who was quoted in Bild’s article also refuted their report and added that they didn’t include the nuances of his views that he shared with them.

    Reputable Indian journalist Sidhant Sibal earlier reported that BRICS agreed to grant Turkiye partnership status together with a dozen other countries, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “everyone is interested in inviting Turkey” to join their association. “BRICS Membership Or Lack Thereof Isn’t Actually That Big Of A Deal” though for the reasons explained in the preceding hyperlinked analysis, namely that anyone can voluntarily coordinate their financial multipolarity policies with the group.

    Membership only imbues countries with the right to participate in discussions on this subject whereas partnership status lets them observe these talks in real time while everyone else waits until they’re over to hear about the results. Both have an element of prestige associated with them and that’s why so many countries want to formalize such relations with BRICS. Turkiye considers itself to be a rising power and accordingly believes that it has the right to at least observe their financial multipolarity discussions.

    Russia, which hosted this year’s summit, agrees. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was thus invited to participate in the BRICS Plus/Outreach meeting. His country has an important role to play in accelerating financial multipolarity processes due to its transcontinental location and economic influence in the Eurasian Heartland brought about by the “Middle Corridor”. The specific form in which this takes and the degree of coordination with BRICS remain to be seen but this fact exists regardless of that.

    India also appreciates Turkiye’s abovementioned role in the global systemic transition despite those two’s disagreements over the unresolved Kashmir Conflict. Its grand strategy aims to carefully multi-align between competing power and influence centers in order to maximally reap the benefits from each. India only decisively takes a side on issues that directly concern its interests, especially those related to national security, since it wants to indefinitely perpetuate this balancing act.

    Turkiye’s request to formalize its relationship with BRICS isn’t considered to be something that directly concerns India’s interests, especially not its national security ones, so it was always dubious that it vetoed this even before Turkiye’s Center for Combating Disinformation debunked Bild’s report. India also respects Russia as a state while Modi and Putin are close friends so it would have been scandalous for Delhi to get in the way of Ankara’s plans after Putin invited Erdogan to attend to lobby in support of this.

    There’s no credible indication that Russia and India had any sort of disagreement over BRICS expansion during last week’s summit. Bild’s report was therefore bonafide fake news that was published for reasons that only this outlet’s editors can account for if they were honest with the public. Whatever they may be, they were ultimately counterproductive after Turkiye itself debunked their report, which damaged Bild’s reputation and exposed it as more of a tabloid than a reliable source of news and insight.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/30/2024 – 02:00

  • Escobar: BRICS Make History – Can They Maintain The Momentum?
    Escobar: BRICS Make History – Can They Maintain The Momentum?

    Authored by Pepe Escobar,

    The not so simple twists of fate always allow certain cities to make their mark in History in ineffable ways. Yalta. Bretton Woods. Bandung – a 1955 de-colonization staple. And now Kazan.

    The BRICS summit in Kazan, capital of Tatarstan, under the Russian presidency was historic in more ways than one – followed with riveting attention by the whole Global Majority and with perplexity by a great deal of the declining Western order.

    It did not change the world – not yet. But Kazan should be seen as the departing station of a high-speed train journey towards the emerging multi-nodal new order. The metaphor was also spatial: the pavilions at the Kazan Expo center “station” holding the summit simultaneously connected to the airport and to the aero-express train to the city.

    The rippling effects of BRICS 2024 in Kazan will be perceived for weeks, months and years ahead. Let’s start with the breakthroughs.

    The Kazan Manifesto

    1.The Kazan Declaration. That is no less than a detailed diplomatic manifesto. Yet because BRICS is not a revolutionary agent – as its members do not share an ideology – arguably the next best strategy is to propose real reform, from the UN Agenda 2030 to the IMF, the World Bank, the WTO, the WHO and the G20 (whose summit is next month in Rio).

    The kernel of the Kazan Declaration – which had been debated for months – is to move in practice towards in-depth institutional changes and to reject Hegemony. The Declaration will be presented to the UN Security Council. There’s no doubt the Hegemon will reject it.

    This paragraph sums up the reform drive: “We condemn the attempts to subject development to discriminatory politically motivated practices, including but not limited to unilateral coercive measures that are incompatible with the 5 principles of the UN Charter, explicit or implied political conditionality of development assistance, activities, aiming at compromising the multiplicity of international development assistance providers.”

    2. The BRICS Outreach session. That was Bandung 1955 on macro-steroids: a microcosm of how the new, really de-colonized, non-unilateral world is being born.

    President Putin opened and handed the floor to the leaders and heads of delegations of other 35 nations, most at the highest level, including Palestine, plus the UN Secretary General. Quite a few speeches were nothing short of epic. The session lasted 3h25. It will be circulating all across the Global Majority for years.

    The session tied up with the announcement of the new 13 BRICS partners: Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkiye, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Vietnam. A strategic tour de force including 4 Southeast Asian powerhouses; the top two Central Asian “stans”; 3 Africans; 2 Latin Americans, and NATO member Turkiye.

    3. The Russian BRICS presidency itself. Arguably no other nation would have been able to pull off such a complex and impeccably organized summit, held after over 200 BRICS-related meetings throughout the year across Russia conducted by unnamed sherpas, members of working groups and the BRICs Business Council. Security was massive – for obvious reasons, considering the odds of a false flag/terrorist attack.

    4. Connectivity corridors. That is the main geoeconomic theme of Eurasia integration, and Afro-Eurasia integration as well. Putin explicitly named, more than once, the new growth drivers of the near future: Southeast Asia and Africa. Both happen to be key partners of several high-profile Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. Additionally, Putin named the top two connectivity corridors of the future: the Northern Sea Route – which the Chinese describe as the Arctic Silk Road – and the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), where the three drivers are BRICS members Russia, Iran and India.

    So that translates as BRICS China crisscrossing Eurasia from east to west while BRICS Russia/Iran/India crisscross it from north to south, with ramifications in all latitudes. And with all the energy add-ons, with Iran positioning itself as a crucial energy hub, opening the finally feasible possibility of building the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline, one of the unfinished sagas of what I described in the early 2000s as Pipelineistan.

    The Return of the Primakov Triangle

    There were immense expectations all across the Global Majority of a major breakthrough in Kazan on alternative payment systems. Realist Russian-Chinese finance tech experts commented they did “not see anything at all except for another round of initiatives about grain exchange, precious metals exchange and investment platform. BRICS Clear is being somehow developed but the rest will not work without proper sovereign infrastructure.”

    And that brings us back to the UNIT project – a form of “apolitical money”, anchored in gold and BRICS+ currencies, which was exhaustively discussed by the working groups and reached the Russian Ministry of Finance. The next necessary step is a trial run by a major business conglomerate. That may happen soon, and if successful, will stimulate other major companies in BRICS nations to tag along.

    As for the BRICS digital investment platform, it is already a go. Alongside the NDB – the BRICS bank, and Putin encouraged former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff to stay on the helm – this will facilitate Global South access to financing without the dreaded IMF/World Bank “structural adjustment” conditionalities. The BRICS grain exchange, establishing clear, transparent rules, will be essential to ensure Global South food security.

    The BRICS made it clear that the complex drive towards a new settlement/payment infrastructure is inevitable, but a long work in progress, especially when the G7 – which for all practical purposes is hijacking the agenda for the G20 next month in Rio – wants to finance at least $20 billion of a $50 billion package to Ukraine with proceeds from stolen Russian assets.

    And that brings us to the most glaring BRICS problems.

    Achieving consensus on difficult dossiers is extremely hard – and may lead, in the long run, to BRICS moving towards an absolute majority mechanism to get things done.

    The Brazilian case – vetoing Venezuela as a BRICS partner – did not go down well at all among members, among partners and across the Global South. The current Lula government may be under tremendous pressure by the Hegemon’s Democrat establishment, but that in itself does not explain the decision.

    There is a massive anti-BRICS lobby inside the highest levels of the Brazilian government, “facilitated”, as usual, by American NGOs as well as the European Commission (EC), heavily infiltrated among the proverbial comprador elites. Brasilia this year privileged the G20 over BRICS. That foresees trouble for next year, when Brazil assumes the BRICS presidency.

    Prospects are not exactly brilliant. The BRICS summit next year is scheduled for July – and the decision seems to be final. That makes no sense – to do the recap of a working agenda in the middle of the year. The official excuse is that Brazil also needs to organize the Cop-30 climate conference in November. So a suggestion will be floated by top Brazilian economist Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr to hold a parallel BRICS wrap-up session during the 2025 G20 summit, which will be held in BRICS member South Africa.

    President Putin has been very accommodating – even proposing Dilma Rousseff to remain at the helm of the NDB. Yet the Russian presidency of the NDB technically starts next year; a more suitable candidate for head of the NDB would be Aleksei Mozhin, until recently the Russian representative in the IMF.

    There’s a major takeaway of all of the above.

    Kazan proved that the driving force of BRICS is actually the notorious Primakov triangle – or RIC (Russia, India, China). It’s now possible to add Iran, and that would make it RIIC. Everything of substance in the inter-connected processes of BRICS integration and Afro-Eurasia integration depends on RIIC.

    Saudi Arabia remains an open proposition. Not even Putin answered whether Riyadh is in, out, or over the wall. Diplomatic sources hint MbS is waiting for the result of the US presidential elections. As much as Saudi Arabia’s wealth is invested in the Anglo-American sphere – and can be stolen in no time – relations with the Russia-China strategic partnership at the highest level are excellent.

    RIC scored a major hit right before the Kazan summit with Beijing and New Delhi announcing their Ladakh normalization. That was achieved by Russian mediation. Then there’s Turkiye; Erdogan was adamant to stress his BRICS enthusiasm in the few hours he spent in Kazan. Later in Istanbul, scholars confirmed he’s dead serious about Turkiye’s partner status and eventual admission as a full member.

    In the language of symbols, the minarets of the Kul Sharif mosque in the Kazan Kremlin were the de facto trademark of the summit: graphic multipolarity in effect. The lands of Islam did get the message – with serious, auspicious repercussions ahead. As for the conductors as the high-speed multi-nodal train leaves the station, all attention should be focused on RIIC. May all the Global South have a safe trip.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 23:25

  • "Complete Lawlessness": Seattle Residents Concerned With "Chaos" Cause By Illegal Street Racing
    “Complete Lawlessness”: Seattle Residents Concerned With “Chaos” Cause By Illegal Street Racing

    We’ve already seen it wreak havoc in cities like Philadelphia, and now illegal street racing is taking over another Democrat-run, Democrat-DA led city: Seattle. And the chaos is starting to concern residents.

    Seattle police are seeking drivers involved in two weekend “street takeovers” that caused traffic jams and alarmed nearby residents and workers, KING5 Seattle reported on Monday. 

    Resident Clay Church said: “Felt like chaos and you something you see at a frat party. Ten fireworks I saw. Multiple were thrown at the cop cars directly. That’s kind of when the cops backed another block. [It was] really loud between that and the cars, complete chaos.”

    “One hundred to 150 people out here with their cars essentially, drag racing, doing donuts. Kind of complete lawlessness, really,” Church added.

    Church described the early Sunday street takeover outside his apartment at 3rd Ave and Clay St. Around 1 a.m., he saw people blocking the intersection with lime scooters and orange cones.

    “We see things on Friday nights. But you don’t expect this type of thing,” another resident said. “We were very nervous someone was going to get hit by a car. Just with the mass amount of people out there and with these cars just spinning.” 

    According to KING5, staff reported the street takeover lasted under 20 minutes. Tower camera footage showed a bystander throwing an object at a car, sparking a conflict before police intervened.

    “They need to understand what folks go through who do live in downtown and understand that it’s just not acceptable,” Church concluded. 

    A statement from the Mayor’s office read: “Mayor Harrell believes it is critical that we work to prevent this behavior and hold offenders accountable using all tools available, including law enforcement efforts, new safety technologies, and legislation recently passed by the City Council. We would defer to SPD on the specifics of these particular events and law enforcement tactics.”

    Maybe Seattle residents will think twice before urging defunding the police the next time we have a “Summer of Love”…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 23:00

  • What China's "Joint Sword-2024B" Military Drill Tells Us
    What China’s “Joint Sword-2024B” Military Drill Tells Us

    Authored by Carl Schuster via The Epoch Times,

    Involving over 125 aircraft and 34 coast guard and naval units, Beijing’s recent military drills around Taiwan give us some insights into Xi Jinping’s plans for forcing the island’s reunification with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

    This latest intimidation operation was intended to warn Taipei and its potential supporters that Beijing has the capability and will to isolate the democratically governed island from any external support or assistance. However, it also signaled that Xi intends to present the initial phase of a violent reunification effort as one justified under international law.

    For example, the People’s Armed Police Coast Guard’s (PAPCG’s) opening participation indicates China may launch that gambit by declaring a maritime exclusion or quarantine zone around Taiwan. Coast Guard cutters not only circumnavigated the main island of Taiwan, they also patrolled in the waters off Taiwan’s islands just off China’s shores. Nor was this the first time the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command has incorporated PAPCG and Maritime Security Agency (MSA) patrol craft in its exercises opposite Taiwan three times since 2022.

    Seven PAPCG cutters participated in this latest exercise, and a similar number were active in last summer’s as well. Additionally, last August, the MSA’s largest patrol ship, the Type 918 Hai Xun 06, challenged a Taiwan ferry going the offshore island of Matsu. It did not board the ferry but demanded that it declare its cargo and destination and then escorted it outside Taiwan’s declared territorial waters. The patrol ship presented an intimidating presence for the ferry’s crew and passengers. The growing participation of PRC maritime law enforcement units is significant.

    In effect, Beijing is at least considering a maritime law enforcement operation to isolate Taiwan from external support. It will not declare a blockade since that is an act of war typically employed against a hostile sovereign state, a status Beijing denies Taipei. Instead, Beijing argues that Taiwan is a renegade province, making all of its islands, air space, and waters sovereign PRC territory in “rebel” hands. Beijing claims that Taiwan’s status gives China the right under international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), to control access to that territory and regulate commerce and resources within Taipei’s economic exclusion zone.

    Under that mindset, Beijing can argue that any maritime quarantine it declares against Taiwan constitutes a reasonable domestic law enforcement operation authorized under international law. It can use that declaration to monitor, intercept, and search shipping entering the quarantine zone to ensure the cargos contain no contraband or materials that Beijing considers supportive of the rebellion. Xi may hope to depict any foreign attempt to assist Taipei under those circumstances as an act of war violating Beijing’s right to re-establish its authority over a province in rebellion. That may give some Western leaders pause since they may have influential “legal experts” who accept Beijing’s interpretation.

    China’s PAPCG is the world’s largest coast guard, and the waters around Taiwan off-China’s shore islands will be reinforced by the PRC’s Maritime Safety Administration’s units. Additionally, as is often the case in the South China Sea, the PAPCG will enjoy the backing of the responsible PLA Theater Command. The PLA Navy and Air Force will maintain patrols, presence, and readiness to respond to any challenges beyond the PAPCG’s capabilities. Equally important, recent missile tests by the PLA Rocket Force and past participation in Eastern Theater Command Exercises indicate preparations for potential anti-Taiwan operations if required.

    The 13-hour-long Joint Sword-2024B was neither as large nor as complex as China’s earlier intimidation exercises against Taiwan. Still, it does demonstrate Beijing’s aggressive intentions and provides some potential insights into how it intends to achieve them. The PRC employs a more adroitly crafted narrative and operates with greater care and subtlety than America’s traditional enemies. It will present its acts as legitimate and lawful actions necessary to ending a rebellion on its territory. All of its military operations have a political narrative and purpose behind them.

    Beijing’s “Three Warfares” doctrine integrates media, public opinion, and legal activities to shape the legal and political environment in its favor. The PRC often presents a positive legal façade to divide its opposition and hide its true intentions. Exposing what’s behind the façade is critical to deterring Xi’s aggressive plans. That may be the greatest challenge the United States and its allies face in deterring Xi’s destabilizing designs in the Western Pacific.

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 22:35

  • The Most Devastating COVID Report So Far
    The Most Devastating COVID Report So Far

    Authored by Jayanta Bhattacharya via The Brownstone Institute,

    The House report on HHS Covid propaganda is devastating. The Biden administration spent almost $1 billion to push falsehoods about Covid vaccines, boosters, and masks on the American people. If a pharma company had run the campaign, it would have been fined out of existence.

    HHS engaged a PR firm, the Fors Marsh Group (FMG), for the propaganda campaign.

    The main goal was to increase Covid vax uptake.

    The strategy:

    1. Exaggerate Covid mortality risk

    2. Downplay the fact that there was no good evidence that the Covid vax stops transmission. 

    The propaganda campaign extended beyond vax uptake and included exaggerating mask efficacy and pushing for social distancing and school closures.

    Ultimately, since the messaging did not match reality, the campaign collapsed public trust in public health.

    The PR firm (FMG) drew most of its faulty science from the CDC’s “guidance,” which ignored the FDA’s findings on the vaccine’s limitations, as well as scientific findings from other countries that contradicted CDC groupthink.

    The report details the CDC’s mask flip-flopping through the years. It’s especially infuriating to recall the CDC’s weird, anti-scientific, anti-human focus on masking toddlers with cloth masks into 2022.

    President Biden’s Covid advisor Ashish K. Jha waited until Dec. 2022 (right after leaving government service) to tell the country that “[t]here is no study in the world that shows that masks work that well.” What took him so long?

    In 2021, former CDC director, Rochelle Walensky rewrote CDC guidance on social distancing at the behest of the national teachers’ union, guaranteeing that schools would remain closed to in-person learning for many months.

    During this period, the PR firm FMG put out ads telling parents that schools would close unless kids masked up, stayed away from friends, and got Covid-vaccinated.

    In March 2021, even as the CDC told the American people that the vaxxed did not need to mask, the PR firm ran ads saying that masks were still needed, even for the vaxxed. “It’s not time to ease up” we were told, in the absence of evidence any of that did any good.

    In 2021, to support the Biden/Harris administration’s push for vax mandates, the PR firm pushed the false idea that the vax stopped Covid transmission. When people started getting “breakthrough” infections, public trust in public health collapsed.

    Later, when the FDA approved the vax for 12 to 15-year-old kids, the PR firm told parents that schools could open in fall 2021 only if they got their kids vaccinated. These ads never mentioned side effects like myocarditis due to the vax.

    HHS has scrubbed the propaganda ads from this era from its web pages. It’s easy to see why. They are embarrassing. They tell kids, in effect, that they should treat other kids like biohazards unless they are vaccinated.

    When the Delta variant arrived, the PR firm doubled down on fear-mongering, masking, and social distancing.

    In September 2021, CDC director Walensky overruled the agency’s external experts to recommend the booster to all adults rather than just the elderly. The director’s action was “highly unusual” and went beyond the FDA’s approval of the booster for only the elderly.

    The PR campaign and the CDC persistently overestimated the mortality risk of Covid infection in kids to scare parents into vaccinating their children with the Covid vax.

    In Aug. 2021, the military imposed its Covid vax mandate, leading to 8,300 servicemen being discharged. Since 2023, the DOD has been trying to get the discharged servicemen to reenlist. What harm has been done to American national security by the vax mandate?

    The Biden/Harris administration imposed the OSHA, CMS, and military vax mandates, even though the CDC knew that the Delta variant evaded vaccine immunity. The PR campaign studiously avoided informing Americans about waning vaccine efficacy in the face of variants.

    The propaganda campaign hired celebrities and influencers to “persuade” children to get the Covid vax.

    I think if a celebrity is paid to advertise a faulty product, that celebrity should be partially liable if the product harms some people.

    In the absence of evidence, the propaganda campaign ran ads telling parents that the vaccine would prevent their kids from getting Long Covid.

    With the collapse in public trust in the CDC, parents have begun to question all CDC advice. Predictably, the HHS propaganda campaign has led to a decline in the uptake of routine childhood vaccines.

    The report makes several recommendations, including formally defining the CDC’s core mission to focus on disease prevention, forcing HHS propaganda to abide by the FDA’s product labeling rules, and revamping the process of evaluating vaccine safety.

    Probably the most important recommendation: HHS should never again adopt a policy of silencing dissenting scientists in an attempt to create an illusion of consensus in favor of CDC groupthink.

    You can find a copy of the full House report here.

    The HHS must take its findings seriously if there is any hope for public health to regain public.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 22:10

  • Trump Responds After Biden Calls 80 Million Americans Human Garbage, Then Lies About It
    Trump Responds After Biden Calls 80 Million Americans Human Garbage, Then Lies About It

    Update (2147ET): President Trump has responded to Biden’s comments, saying “Remember Hillary, she said deplorable… Garbage I think is worse.”

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    Does Harris agree?

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    And of course, the media is already spinning this – suggesting that Biden said ‘Trump’s supporter’s‘ – singular, as if he was only referring to Hinchcliffe.

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    Trump running mate JD Vance responded as well – calling out journalists trying to spin this:

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    You may have heard. During Donald Trump’s 7-hour, celebrity-packed rally at Madison Square Garden, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage,” in reference to the US territory’s well known problem with overflowing landfills.

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    The left went into absolute hysterics,

    Liberal comedian Jon Stewart was the voice of reason…

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    And just when you thought the dust had settled, President Biden called 80 million Americans human garbage:

    “Donald Trump has no character. He doesn’t give a damn about the Latino community…just the other day, a speaker at his rally called Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage?…The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters,” reports NBC News’ Gabe Gutierrez.

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    Update: Then he lied about it!

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    Even CNN isn’t buying it…

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    Meanwhile, Puerto Rican Trump supporters responded with a pro-Trump caravan…

    Puerto Rican politician Zoraida Buxó came out for Trump at a Tuesday rally…

    Stay classy, Biden…

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 21:46

  • Citadel’s Griffin: "Expectation Today Trump Wins White House"
    Citadel’s Griffin: “Expectation Today Trump Wins White House”

    At Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative summit, Citadel CEO Ken Griffin and Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman shared their views on the upcoming US presidential election, which is now just six days away.

    “The expectation today is that Donald Trump will win the White House,” Griffin told the panel at Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative summit, adding, “We are at that moment of peak uncertainty. It is a race that Trump is favored to win, but it is almost a coin toss.”

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    During the same panel discussion, Schwarzman weighed in on US politics, indicating, “I don’t know who’s going to win the presidency … but it appears Trump is in a much better base of knowledge of how that job works and how to be efficient and effective in doing it.”

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    Earlier, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon told Bloomberg TV, “We do have an election, and there will be policy decisions coming,” adding, “Those will impact the trajectory in 2025 and 2026.” 

    Equity and bond markets have already moved in directions that indicate a possible Trump victory. We detailed this in length for pro subs in a note titled “These Are Goldman’s Favorite Election Trades.”

    That note highlighted Goldman’s Republican Policy pair (GSP24REP), up 7% on the year, while the Democratic Policy pair (GSP24DEM) is down 2.3%. 

    Weeks ago, we showed how Polymarket’s Trump election odds influenced the bond market. 

    The current Polymarket Trump-Harris spread is massively in favor of a Trump win.

    “The mainstream lost its monopoly over media. Now it’s losing its monopoly over polls, prediction markets and shaping public opinion as trust shifts to independent new entities,” we noted on X. 

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    According to the national polling aggregate by RealClearPolitics, Trump is holding a slight lead over Harris. 

    While Griffin and Schwarzman shared their view on the upcoming election on Tuesday, Elon Musk has gone all-in for Trump.

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    It appears America’s leading entrepreneurs want real leadership and stability after 3.5 years of uncertainty and chaos with the Biden-Harris regime. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 21:45

  • The Importance Of Discipline
    The Importance Of Discipline

    Authored by Christian Milord via The Epoch Times,

    What does the undisciplined life look like? The picture that comes to mind would be an individual who tends to be disorganized in a number of behavioral dimensions. They might be slovenly in appearance, arrive late to appointments, avoid responsibilities, have a short attention span, give in to every impulse, take shortcuts, lack focus and purpose, and so on.

    The undisciplined life doesn’t arrive in a vacuum. It can develop in a young person’s life perhaps due to a lack of firm role models around to steer the youngster toward self-control and the hard work of character building.

    If an individual fails to form disciplined habits, he or she can more easily be buffeted back and forth by the winds of fate.

    It takes real effort to become organized and reliable. In other words, it takes discipline to become disciplined!

    The Disciplined Life

    No one needs to be undisciplined forever. An individual can learn self-control through experience (trial and error) and observation. One does not need to isolate oneself or become a monk in order to form disciplined habits. Constructive routines can be formulated regardless of the environment one lives in.

    If you are tired of being pushed around in life, developing disciplined habits will help you to take control of your life in an assertive manner. Implementing these habits starts in the morning. Over time, I developed a routine of rising very early in the morning and taking in some moderate exercise to get the circulation going. This is a purposeful start to a new day as you are eager to plunge into the day’s activities without the need for coffee. Morning prayers are also beneficial.

    Another facet of a structured life involves diet and nutrition. Consuming a healthy diet in order to stay fit requires discipline and the ability to resist the temptation of junk food that bombards us at every turn. Most folks are aware of what constitutes a healthy diet, but they have a hard time sticking to it. Self-control helps you to stay on the narrow path of good nutrition, although we all have lapses from time to time.

    Diet, exercise, and sufficient rest can help us to be confident and healthy as we dress appropriately, maintain personal hygiene, and utilize our energy wisely each day.

    Turning off electronic devices an hour or two before retiring for the night also bestows restful sleep. None of these habits come easily, but once they are part of one’s daily schedule, it becomes easier to abide by them, because you witness the positive outcomes.

    On a more practical level, delayed gratification is a positive principle that comes from a disciplined life. If we are careful at how we spend our income, we can learn how to invest and save more for the future so that we are less inclined to incur debts that can lead to downward mobility. The reckless running up of credit card debt is a prime example of a path that can send one to a poorhouse.

    Disciplining the mind is another aspect of a disciplined life. Sometimes we are faced with information overload, and it can be a challenge to quiet our thoughts down and focus on what is important. This demands practice and mindful breathing exercises to eliminate the stress and invite relaxation in. Muddled thinking can give way to clarity of thought.

    The mind is a powerful instrument that can either sabotage our goals or guide us on the road toward self-governance. If harnessed properly, the mind can enable us to help other folks more effectively as we develop social skills. By assisting others, you end up helping yourself as well.

    Practicing self-discipline can also lead one to a greater spiritual awareness regarding nature and the wonders of God’s creation. Prayer from the heart can strengthen us to cope with the hardships and rejections we all face during our lives. The key is to not give up when faced with obstacles that sometimes arrive two or three at a time.

    I’ve lost count of the number of occupational and personal hurdles I’ve encountered over the years. You learn to grow a thicker skin as the problems roll off your back. Indeed, sometimes these closed doors can point to other opportunities. Suffering can be unpleasant, because we all have feelings, but it’s a part of life that can help us to be empathetic toward other folks.

    Finally, a disciplined life can multiply our chances for success. We learn how to communicate effectively, develop sensory and situational awareness, tame our emotions, embrace lifelong learning, and show gratitude for our blessings. With discipline, we can better organize our lives, yet still have the flexibility to pivot from the structure when necessary. We can also strike a balance between purposeful work and task completion with relaxing leisure time. Self-discipline is part of what comprises a virtuous life.

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 20:30

  • Trump To Unleash Financial Armageddon On Mexican Drug Cartels If He Wins: We Will Be "Seizing Assets" 
    Trump To Unleash Financial Armageddon On Mexican Drug Cartels If He Wins: We Will Be “Seizing Assets” 

    Former President Trump reportedly told allies earlier this year that he would covertly deploy Tier 1 US Special Forces operators to Mexico to wipe out drug cartel leadership if he returns to the White House. However, storming the command and control centers of cartels with guns blazing may not be the proper strategy to dismantle these criminal organizations.

    “I’m announcing that for the first time under my administration, we are seizing the assets of the criminal gangs and drug cartels and we will use those assets to create a compensation fund to provide restitution for the victims of migrant crime,” Trump said at a press conference on Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago. 

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    Trump’s comments at Mar-a-Lago suggest if he wins in November, the US Treasury Department may ramp up a financial war against the violent Mexico-based drug trafficking cartel responsible for America’s drug overdose catastrophe. 

    “When it comes to drug trafficking, we haven’t enforced sanctions against banks seriously,” David Asher, a senior fellow at the conservative Hudson Institute specializing in US foreign policy and law enforcement, told AP News in April 2023. 

    Asher continued, “If we can sanction Russian oligarchs and banks, why can’t we do the same thing to Mexican drug lords and their bankers and bank accounts and banks — especially when we know who they are.”

    Under a Trump presidency, international fentanyl trafficking could be declared a national emergency. This would then allow the Treasury to sanction the hell out of drug cartels and their banks. This would enable Trump to confiscate the sanctioned property of fentanyl traffickers. And it’s not just targeting Mexican banks where traffickers hide their monies – Chinese banks could be targets, too.

    Sanctions would be a tool by Trump to then deter Chinese chemical firms from sending fentanyl-precursor chemicals to Mexico. When cooked, these chemicals are turned into fentanyl, shipped over Biden-Harris’ open southern borders, and then flooded into streets of American towns and cities. 

    If Trump wins, expect these illicit financial networks of the cartels and Chinese companies participating in this drug crisis scheme to be instant targets. 

    Remember, China doesn’t even have to fire a shot, and 100,000 Americans die each year from the drug death overdose crisis. Many of these deaths are folks who are prime-aged working men and women, in other words, military-aged men and women. Some say this is reverse opium wars waged by the Communists on the West. Trump may end this chaos that Biden-Harris allowed to expand drastically. 

    Will activist hedge funds short the peso and Mexican banks if Trump wins? It certainly sounds like a big theme in the making, of course, dependent on a Trump win. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 20:05

  • October Surprise: NY Times And Media Matters To Drop Hit Piece On Conservative News
    October Surprise: NY Times And Media Matters To Drop Hit Piece On Conservative News

    Over the last 48 hours, Tucker Carlson, the Daily Wire‘s Ben Shapiro, ZeroHedge, and others have received text messages from a NY Times reporter who’s about to drop a pre-election screed on ‘misinformation’ in conjunction with radical left-wing group Media Matters – which exists to deplatform conservative voices.

    Tucker Carlson simply told them to fuck off, as one does.

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    Ben Shapiro, meanwhile, wrote in a Monday post to X, “If you were wondering what the legacy media would plan for its October surprise, wonder no longer: it’s here. Today, I received the following text from a reporter at @NYTimes.”

    “What, precisely, is NYT doing? It’s perfectly obvious: using research from Media Matters, a radical Left-wing organization whose sole purpose is destroying conservative media (see below), in order to pressure YouTube to demonetize and penalize any and all conservatives ONE WEEK FROM THE ELECTION,” Shapiro continues.

    “This isn’t about “election misinformation.” Obviously. As pretty much everyone knows, I have always acknowledged that Joe Biden won the 2020 election. And if it is “election misinformation” to point out the “rigging” of the voting rules for election 2020, resulting in massive mail-in voting and ballot harvesting, then the NYT might want to talk to…the NYT and CBS News, for starters,” Shapiro writes, noting that those outlets essentially said the same thing. 

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    ZeroHedge, yours truly, also received a nastygram from Newsguard – who Revolver News exposed as a complete joke years ago.

    Fox News explains what’s going on…

    Meanwhile, the author of the hit piece – Nico Grant, has locked his profile on X…

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    If we haven’t done so recently, we’d like to thank all of our premium and professional subscribers for helping combat this cabal.

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 19:55

  • US Ambassador To Lebanon Promotes 'Internal Uprising' To Assist Israel: Report
    US Ambassador To Lebanon Promotes ‘Internal Uprising’ To Assist Israel: Report

    Via The Cradle

    A high-ranking Lebanese security source revealed to Al-Akhbar newspaper that the US Ambassador to Lebanon, Lisa Johnson, is continuing her agenda to prepare Lebanon for a “post-Hezbollah era” by mobilizing “internal” forces against the resistance movement while it fights the Israeli Army.

    In discussions with Lebanese politicians, Johnson reportedly said, “Israel cannot achieve everything through war; it’s time for you to do your part and launch an internal uprising under the banner of ‘Enough.’“

    Still frame via YouTube/US Embassy Beirut

    The ambassador added, “The Lebanese people must show their desire to rise up and get rid of Hezbollah and return to the context that emerged after the assassination of Rafik Hariri, especially since the regional, international, and field circumstances are in your favor.”

    According to the source, the ambassador asked the politicians, “Why do you seem afraid? Hezbollah has been defeated, its leadership is destroyed, and we are with you, and the entire free world stands by your side.”

    Johnson encouraged her Lebanese allies to advocate for the election of Lebanese Armed Forces Commander General Joseph Aoun as President of Lebanon, saying, “He (Aoun) will appoint a strong commander for the Lebanese Army, and we will support the Army in restraining all Hezbollah supporters. You will have backing from Arab states and the West. But the time to act is now.”

    According to the high-level Lebanese security source, Ambassador Johnson’s allies are conducting incitement operations to stoke internal sectarian tensions in areas where displaced persons, mostly Shia from Beirut’s southern suburbs and the south of Lebanon, are now staying after fleeing their homes due to Israeli bombing.

    Lebanon’s society is multi-confessional and multi-national, making the country susceptible to division by outside forces. Lebanon is comprised of Christians (Catholic and Orthodox), Muslims (Sunni and Shia), Druze, and Palestinian and Syrian refugees.

    Civil war engulfed Lebanon’s multifaceted society between 1975 to 1990. An estimated 150,000 people were killed. 

    The source speaking with Al-Akhbar added that “mobilization operations” are being carried out in some neighborhoods and areas controlled by the Lebanese Forces, a right-wing Christian political party, under the pretext of “protecting our areas from the chaos of the displaced and so that they do not turn into occupiers.”

    In an effort to weaken Hezbollah, Johnson has also begun calling on politicians, civil organizations, and media professionals with whom she has influence to drive a wedge between Lebanon’s Shia community and Hezbollah.

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    The source said that Johnson has clearly stated her wish to take advantage of the current Israeli war to completely eliminate Hezbollah, not only militarily but politically as well.

    “We do not only want to limit Hezbollah’s influence, but we will strike its support lines, and we are working non-stop to bring down the regime in Iran as well,” Johnson reportedly said.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 19:40

  • US Approves Weapons Sale To Riyadh Despite Unprecedented Iran-Saudi Drills
    US Approves Weapons Sale To Riyadh Despite Unprecedented Iran-Saudi Drills

    Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute,

    Last week, Saudi Arabia conducted unprecedented drills with its rival Iran in the Sea of Oman in a sign of warming relations between the regional powers. Following the announcement, Washington approved a massive arms sale to the Gulf Kingdom. 

    On Thursday, the US announced it had approved the sale of 1,000 Tube-launched, Optically Tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles to Saudi Arabia. Raytheon will be the contractor for the $440 million deal. 

    US Army file image showing vehicle mounted TOW missile launch.

    Washington’s press release about the deal came after Saudi Arabia said it conducted joint naval exercises with Iran on Wednesday.

    “The Royal Saudi Naval Forces had recently concluded a joint naval exercise with the Iranian Naval Forces alongside other countries in the Sea of Oman,” a Saudi military official told AFP. 

    While the drills signal a strengthening relationship between Gulf powers, Washington providing a huge shipment of weapons to Riyadh as it also backs Israeli strikes on Iran could scuttle the steps towards a more stable Saudi-Iranian relationship. 

    The White House took a similar approach to the South China Sea. In July, China and the Philippines agreed to a deal that saw tensions around the Second Thomas Shoal decrease.

    However, the Biden administration then sent $500 million in military aid to Manila. Shortly thereafter, the Philippines and Chinese vessels began colliding near another reef in the South China Sea.  

    Riyadh and Tehran have been building their relationship since Beijing brokered a landmark peace deal between the two countries last year. President Joe Biden has sought to take the Middle East in a different direction, bringing Saudi Arabia into a coalition with Israel aimed at Iran. 

    The Saudis and Iranians recently went from spending decades as bitter regional enemies and rivals to holding joint military drills after a China-brokered detente…

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    The announcement of the massive arms deal for Raytheon comes after the arms merchant agreed to pay nearly $1 billion in penalties after overbilling the Pentagon and bribing foreign governments. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 18:50

  • Maddow Wheels Out Neocon Nuland To Declare Russia Is Interfering In 2024 Election
    Maddow Wheels Out Neocon Nuland To Declare Russia Is Interfering In 2024 Election

    MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow can’t let an election go by without wheeling out the usual cadre of tired old neocons, with the latest to appear on her show being former State Department official Victoria Nuland. As expected, she sought to lump Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Vladimir Putin together in a segment on ‘disinformation’ this week.

    “He’s at it again!” Nuland claimed of Putin, resurrecting talking points heavily featured in the prior two elections as well. She accused Musk of being in essence a useful idiot of the Kremlin, allowing Putin to use “sophisticated tools” on his X platform to ‘interfere’ and influence voters. “And he has more sophisticated tools… He’s got a brand new, very powerful tool, which is Elon Musk and X,” Nuland claimed of Putin (and by extension Trump, according to her talking points).

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    “In 2020, the social media companies worked hard with the U.S. government to try to do content moderation, to try to catch this stuff as it was happening. This time, we have Elon Musk talking directly to the Kremlin and ensuring that every time the Russians put out something, it gets five million views before anyone can catch it,” Nuland continued. And then she warned: “Trump is taking Putin lessons, as autocrats around the world are.”

    Maddow, for her part, added: “For the United States to not be the leader of the free world, but rather in effectively a sort of ‘Axis’ with the dictators of Russia and China, and North Korea.” So clearly Maddow wanted to escalate the claims to put Trump in league with all dictators of the world, absurdly enough.

    “For the United States to be allied with those countries instead of our traditional alliances — I’m not sure people have absorbed the magnitude of what you’re describing there,” Maddow followed with.

    Aaron Maté, an indepdent journalist who has spent years debunking key Russiagate talking points, issued the following commentary in reaction to the Nuland-Maddow interview segment…

    * * *

    For a third consecutive presidential election, Russiagate propagandists are accusing Russia of manipulating Americans into not voting for their preferred candidate. Here, Victoria Nuland complains that Twitter is no longer partnering with the US gov’t to censor stories — what she calls the “content moderation” that we saw “in 2020.”

    This is a reference to censoring journalism on Hunter Biden’s laptop based on the CIA lie that it was “Russian disinformation.”

    Speaking of Russia and election interference, Nuland is well-versed in practicing it: as a senior State Dept. official, she was instrumental in funneling the Clinton-funded “Steele dossier” into the FBI. She personally authorized the early July 2016 meeting where Steele gave an FBI agent his dossier, which helped kick off the multi-year Russiagate scam.

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    * * *

    And another commenter wrote that “Nuland openly longs for the days of US Govt/Twitter 1.0 censorship collusion.”

    “Free speech on X is under constant assault — their information monopoly has been destroyed in an election cycle — and they desperately want the Twitter 1.0 censorship regime back.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 18:25

  • Starbucks Warns Corporate Staff: Show Up In Office Or Get Fired
    Starbucks Warns Corporate Staff: Show Up In Office Or Get Fired

    The golden era of remote work seems to be ending. Starbucks is the latest mega-corporation to enforce a return-to-office mandate for white-collar workers.

    An internal message from the coffee chain obtained by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal states a new “standardized process” will be implemented at the start of the new year to hold employees accountable if they don’t comply with work requirements, such as coming into the office at least three days a week. The memo stated that non-compliance could result in termination. 

    Starbucks reminded hybrid white-collar workers that working arrangements had not changed and that rules must be followed. The memo emphasized: “We are continuing to support our leaders as they hold their teams accountable.” 

    Bloomberg quoted new Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol last month as saying, “This is not a game of tracking. This is a game of winning,” adding, “I care about seeing everybody here succeed, and if success requires us being together more often than not, let’s be together more often.” 

    A company spokesperson told Bloomberg, “We are continuing to support our leaders as they hold their teams accountable to our existing hybrid work policy.” 

    The bigger picture here is the remote work revolution across corporate America was more or less a total flunk. It did not drive increased office productivity; instead, it was the opposite. More or less, hybrid work policies, a combination of home and office, will likely be the gold standard moving forward. 

    Meanwhile, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy recently told corporate staffers to work from the office five days a week, up from three days a week – completely reversing pandemic-era policies. Also, UPS, JPMorgan Chase, Dell Technologies, and Boeing have asked parts of their white-collar workforces to return to offices full-time. 

    We suspect Starbucks CEO Niccol’s enforcement of office work requirements is part of his attempt to turn around the sinking ship.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 17:40

  • Government Gaslights People About The Economy
    Government Gaslights People About The Economy

    Authored by Ron Paul via The Mises Institute,

    Public opinion polls consistently show the economy is one of the top issues, if not the top issue, for American voters.

    This may strike some as odd, since official government statistics show low unemployment and declining price inflation, suggesting the Federal Reserve has engineered a “soft landing” bringing down inflation without causing a recession.

    So why the concern over the economy? One reason is more people are realizing government economic figures hide the truth about the economy.

    “Recession Since 2022: US Economic Income and Output Have Fallen Overall for Four Years” is a Brownstone Institute research paper by Dr. E.J. Antoni, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, and Dr. Peter St. Onge, a fellow with the Mises Institute.

    It details how the federal government understates inflation, while making wages, profits, and economic growth appear stronger.

    Dr. Antoni and Dr. St. Onge use a more accurate measure of inflation than that used by government to uncover the true state of the economy. Their calculations show that the US economy has been in recession since 2022.

    The government claims that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by approximately 13.7 percent from 2019 through the first half of 2024.

    When the more accurate inflation number is used, the result is a 2.5 percent decline in GDP.

    The federal government’s figures also show the American people’s disposable income increased by 12.9 percent from 2019 through the first half of 2024.

    However, when the more accurate way of calculating price inflation is used, it shows Americans’ disposable income declined by 2.3 percent.

    Dr. Antoni and Dr. St. Onge are hardly the first to expose how the government uses doctored statistics to make the economy look stronger.

    John Williams’s ShadowStats has regularly shown how government manipulates data to underreport unemployment and price inflation.

    Government distortions of economic data mislead the people regarding the true state of the economy. They also mislead Congress, the president, and maybe even the Federal Reserve.

    Until the Audit the Fed bill becomes law, we will not know for sure what data the central bank relies on.

    Making economic policy decisions based on flawed data enables politicians to ignore the dangers posed by Congress’s refusal to cut federal spending.

    Government spending puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. The Federal Reserve can keep interest rates low because the dollar’s world reserve currency status guarantees a strong demand for US dollars.

    A growing number of countries, though, are seeking alternatives to the dollar. One reason for this is resentment over the US government’s use of the dollar’s world reserve currency status to force other counties to abide by US demands.

    Saudi Arabia is moving away from exclusively using dollars for its oil trade.

    The “petrodollar” is a major reason the dollar has been able to maintain its world reserve currency status.

    If the dollar loses its world reserve currency status, America would face a major economic crisis. This crisis could lead to the collapse of the welfare-warfare state and the fiat money system that makes it possible. The danger is the replacement could be even worse as a frightened populace turns toward an authoritarian promise of security in exchange for restriction of liberty.

    However, the collapse could also result in a turn toward respect for the principles of liberty, limited government, free markets, and a foreign policy of peace and free trade.

    Those who know the truth must continue to educate our fellow citizens about the benefits of liberty.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 17:20

  • Russian Special Forces Academy In Chechnya Hit By Drone Attack
    Russian Special Forces Academy In Chechnya Hit By Drone Attack

    A drone slammed into a building and campus in Chechnya known as the Russian Special Forces University in the early morning hours of Tuesday, regional governor Ramzan Kadyrov has confirmed.

    “At 6:30 this morning, the roof of an empty building on the territory of the Russian Special Forces University caught fire in Gudermes as a result of an unmanned aerial attack,” Kadyrov said. The town which hosts the military school lies just over 20 miles east of the capital Grozny.

    Via social media/X

    “No one was killed or injured. The fire has been extinguished,” Kadyrov detailed in the statement posted to Telegram. He claimed the attack didn’t lead to significant disruptions at the training academy. However, that seems doubtful given the photographs showing the extent of fires and damage to the roof in the aftermath. Images suggest more than one UAV may have hit.

    The institution is known for being the only private campus for training Russian military special operators. But tens of thousands have been sent through its elite training program.

    Politico has detailed that the school heavily contributes to training special operations troops deployed in Ukraine:

    “The school’s website says it instructs both soldiers and civilians in a variety of combat tactics, including shooting, artillery and parachute landing. More than 47,000 troops deployed to the front line in Ukraine have been trained there, according to the Kremlin.

    The school also reportedly has a combat drone production facility attached to it. This marks the first such major drone attack on this specific region since the Ukraine war began.

    The Amsterdam-based Moscow Times has noted it’s possible the drone was not sent from Ukraine, given the great distance of the Caucasus from the front lines. 

    “He did not say whether he believed the drone had been launched from Ukraine, noting only that police were investigating the incident,” the report said in reference to Gov. Kadyrov’s statement. “Chechnya is located around 600 kilometers (373 miles) southeast of the border with Ukraine.”

    However, there has been an emerging reporting consensus that this was the result of a Ukrainian attack, and not the result of recent tensions among rival factions on the Russian southern Caucasus republics: 

    Ukraine has frequently struck Russia with drones in the course of the war, but Tuesday’s attack appeared to be the first against Chechnya. There was no immediate comment from Kyiv.

    “They’ve bitten us – we will destroy them,” [Chechen leader] Kadyrov told reporters in a video published by Russian state news agency RIA. “In the very near future we’ll show them the kind of vengeance they’ve never even dreamt of,” he said.

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    Chechen troops have from the start of the war been very active in Ukraine, including specialized units deployed, which has outraged Kiev. Kadyrov in particular has been a regional leader who has been very vocal in supporting Putin’s decision to go to war.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 17:00

  • Trump "Violent Rhetoric" Needs "Close Monitoring": Political 'Scientists'
    Trump “Violent Rhetoric” Needs “Close Monitoring”: Political ‘Scientists’

    Authored by Matt Lamb via The College Fix,

    Political scientists determine Trump uses more violent language than Obama by comparing the Republican’s campaign speeches to the Democrat’s White House addresses

    President Donald Trump’s “violent rhetoric” is getting worse, according to two political scientists.

    University of California Los Angeles doctoral student Nikita Savin and UCLA Professor Daniel Treisman reached their conclusion after analyzing Trump campaign and presidential speeches from 2015 to 2024.

    They compared it to President Barack Obama’s White House weekly addresses, even though a campaign speech is different in tone than a formal address. They have also said Hillary Clinton’s violent language is part of her “toughness” as a female politician confronting stereotypes.

    “While politicians’ rhetoric does not always predict their actions, Trump’s increasing attachment to violent language and populist themes may offer insight into his future approach, whether as president or in defeat,” they wrote in The Conversation.

    This recent article is based on a study published in July and updated this month. “As political scientists, we believe the rise of such rhetoric merits close monitoring because of its potential implications for the broader political landscape,” they wrote.

    Over the summer, Treisman made similar warnings. “How Trump’s vocabulary will evolve in the coming months remains to be seen,” Treisman stated in a news release for UCLA. “But the rising temperature of his rhetoric bears watching.

    Trump uses a “violent tone” and a “controversial rhetorical style,” the political scientists wrote for The Conversation.

    The study relies on a dictionary that Treisman himself developed with another researcher.

    His language is close to “authoritarian figures such as Kim Jong Un and Fidel Castro,” the scholars wrote.

    The political scientists wrote that Trump uses “aggressive” language, such as promising to “drain the swamp.”

    Old Trump used to not be as bad, according to the academics.

    They wrote:

    Trump’s rhetorical style has undergone significant changes since he launched his first presidential campaign. During his initial run in 2015-2016, his language became more inclusive, with a rise in the use of “we” and “the people” and fewer references to elites and social groups he views negatively (“them”).

    Once in office, however, his speeches exhibited a more combative style. His use of violent language surged, and references to “them” became more frequent.

    This evolution suggests that Trump’s rhetoric is adaptable, changing in response to political contexts and the audience he aims to engage.

    “His increasing use of inflammatory language and swear words after taking office contrasts with the more measured tone he adopted during his 2016 campaign,” they wrote.

    Biden was much better, according to the researchers.

    “Despite being president during the start of two foreign wars and other ongoing conflicts abroad, Biden’s use of violent vocabulary during both the 2020 and 2024 presidential campaigns was consistently less than Trump’s,” UCLA wrote in its summary.

    (Biden’s administration has labeled pro-lifers as an “extremist threat” and warned of a “dark winter” if enough Americans didn’t take the COVID-19 jab).

    The scholars also explained away violent imagery from Hillary Clinton.

    “Hillary Clinton’s use of violent words in her 2015-2016 campaign slightly exceeded Trump’s relatively moderate level at that time, which could reflect Clinton’s desire to show ‘toughness’ given stereotypes of women leaders being less hawkish,” UCLA stated in its news release, paraphrasing the researchers.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 16:40

  • Google Jumps After Beating Across The Board
    Google Jumps After Beating Across The Board

    And they’re off.

    What until now was a solid, if not stellar earnings season, is about to go into overdrive as the tech giants report Q3 earnings, although unlike previous quarters, growth for the Magnificent 7 is expected to be far more subdued.

    So turning to the first true megacap to report earnings (after a stellar print from minicap TSLA last week) Google parent Alphabet which as a reminder yesterday Goldman pointed out that ahead of earnings hedge fund positioning here was not as excessive (at 6/10), and may be why the stock is soaring some 4% after the close on what is a solid beat across the board. Here are the details :

    • Q3 EPS $2.12, up 37% and beating estimate $1.84
    • Q3 Revenue $88.27 billion, beating estimate $86.45 billion
      • Google advertising revenue $65.85 billion, beating estimate $65.5 billion
        • Google Search & Other Revenue $49.39 billion, beating estimate $49.08 billion
      • YouTube ads revenue $8.92 billion, beating estimate $8.89 billion
      • Google Network Revenue $7.55 billion, beating estimate $7.41 billion
      • Google Subscriptions, Platforms and Devices Revenue $10.66 billion, beating estimate $9.79 billion
      • Google Services revenue $76.51 billion, beating estimate $75.24 billion
      • Google Cloud revenue $11.35 billion, beating estimate $10.79 billion
      • Other Bets revenue $388 million, beating estimate $377.9 million
         
    • Operating income $28.52 billion, estimate $26.67 billion
      • Google Services operating income $30.86 billion, beating estimate $28.47 billion
      • Google Cloud operating income $1.95 billion, beating estimate $1.11 billion
      • Other Bets operating loss $1.12 billion, missing estimate loss $1.16 billion
         
    • Operating margin 32%, beating estimate 31.4%
    • Net income was $26.3 billion, beating $22.8 billion estimate.
    • Capital expenditure $13.06 billion, beating estimates of $12.88 billion
    • Number of employees 181,269, down from 182,381 a year ago.

    A quick point on YouTube: it was bought by Google in 2006 for $1.65 billion; YouTube now generates $1.65 billion of revenue every 16 days.

    The results visually:

    While Google’s cloud numbers were stellar, with revenue rising from $8.4BN to $11.3BN, and beating estimates of $10.8BN, what investors wanted to hear was more about the company’s progress on AI. This is what CEO Sundar Pichai had to say:

    In Search, our new AI features are expanding what people can search for and how they search for it. In Cloud, our AI solutions are helping drive deeper product adoption with existing customers, attract new customers and win larger deals. And YouTube’s total ads and subscription revenues surpassed $50 billion over the past four quarters for the first time.

    Like other Big Tech companies, Alphabet has been plowing money into developing artificial intelligence, a strategy that has helped drive demand for its cloud services, which saw revenue rise 32% in the first quarter. While Google remains a distant third in the cloud computing market, trailing Amazon and Microsoft, the company’s prowess in AI could help it close the gap.

    Ironically, Google developed much of the underlying technology being used in the AI boom today, and has woven it into products from web search to its suite of enterprise software from Gmail to Google Docs. Yet ever since OpenAI’s ChatGPT was released in late 2022, Google has been battling the perception that it’s lagging behind Microsoft and OpenAI in rolling out new generative AI tools. The arrival of popular chatbots such as ChatGPT, which answers questions in a conversational tone rather than providing lists of links to other websites, has posed a threat to Google’s two-decade stranglehold on search. The company is struggling to compete in generative AI without cannibalizing its core profit machine.

    Google has been scrambling to reassert its early lead in AI, after its early efforts were marred by embarrassing blunders, including a scandal over how its AI model Gemini handled race that forced the company to suspend image generation of people.

    And as the company seeks to establish itself as a leader in AI, it wants to make sure that investors are rewarded to wait, and the company not only announced a cash dividend at 20 cents…

    On October 29, 2024, Alphabet announced a cash dividend of $0.20 per share that will be paid on December 16, 2024, to stockholders of record as of December 9, 2024, on each of the company’s Class A, Class B, and Class C shares.

    … but also announced repurchased $15.3 billion in stock under its new $70 billion buyback program.

    While investors have shown they are excited about the prospects of AI, they want tech companies to continue to focus on revenue and profit in the meantime. Meta, which competes with Google in AI and also digital advertising, suffered its worst stock decline since October 2022 after reporting that it would spend billions of dollars more this year on AI efforts and projecting weaker revenue for the current quarter. For its part, Google – which does not do forecasts – paid $13.1BN in capex in the quarter, about $200 million more than estimated, but that’s not a huge difference and was more than made up for by the rise in profits in its core businesses.

    The Google owner has been suffering compared to the rest of the Magnificent Seven recently. Investors appear to be skeptical of its AI spending — and when it will filter through to the bottom line — and that’s weighed on the stock.

     

    For all the hoopla about AI, search advertising remains the engine of Google’s lucrative business, and the company is facing heightened competition there, too. Meta has been seeding AI tools throughout its advertising business and Snap Inc. has also undergone a total revamp of its ad business to improve ad targeting. The digital ad market is recovering from a post-pandemic slump, buoyed by the Olympics Games this summer, but Google is increasingly vying for those ad dollars with Meta and Snap.

    Additionally, if consumers gravitate from Google search to the new wave of chatbots, that could imperil the company’s search advertising juggernaut, which is expected to generate nearly $200 billion in revenue this year and the bulk of Alphabet’s profit.

    Cloud has been a bright spot for Google, after it first became profitable early last year. Many young AI startups are founded by former Google employees, creating a strong pipeline of cloud clients.

    For now, however, these concerns were on the backburner, with GOOGL stock jumping about 4% after hours, but still well below its all time high reached in early July when it briefly traded above $190.

    For now, however, these concerns were on the backburner, with GOOGL stock exploding about 12% after hours, and trading at a new all time high.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 16:23

  • Megyn Kelly Eviscerates Michelle Obama Over "Whining" Speech "Ripping On The Country"
    Megyn Kelly Eviscerates Michelle Obama Over “Whining” Speech “Ripping On The Country”

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    SiriusXM’s Megyn Kelly blasted multi-millionaire Michelle Obama for making a speech that yet again complained about how racist and sexist the US is.

    Obama made the speech at Kamala Harris’ rally Saturday, also bashing men in the process.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    She also complained that people expect a presidential candidate to be articulate and intelligent.

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    She asked why Harris is being held to a high standard, despite the fact that she’s been Vice President for almost four years.

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    You get the gist.

    Kelly was having none of it and tore Mrs Obama to pieces.

    “The Democrats were on bended knee with two dozen red roses begging Michelle Obama to run, especially when Joe Biden started to implode,” Kelly said, adding “They would have done anything to sub her in… I’m so sick and tired of Michelle Obama whining about how racist and sexist America is.”

    “We made her rich, famous and beloved beyond any measure,” she urged.

    “Everything she has is due to this country — her Martha’s Vineyard estate, her Chicago estate, her Washington, D.C., estate, her Hawaii estate and her trips on the David Geffen yacht. I am sick and tired of her complaining about us. It’s like Oprah. Just shut up!” the host declared.

    “All of your gifts are due to us. All we want to hear you say is thank you. That’s it. That’s what we want to hear you say. Stop ripping on the country,” Kelly added.

    Watch:

    Kelly followed up with two more jabs.

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    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    She’s right, every time the likes of Michelle Obama speak, it alienates every day Americans.

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/29/2024 – 16:20

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Oct 29

Today’s News 29th October 2024

  • "Six Ways From Sunday" And The Continuity Of Government
    “Six Ways From Sunday” And The Continuity Of Government

    Authored by Sundance via The Last Refuge,

    During the rushed debate over the Patriot Act, was when I first heard political officials talking about the importance of “continuity of government.”

    I immediately recognized what all these DC voices were describing was a construct of a post-911 government that would exist and maintain itself without the elected representatives of WeThe People.

    The intelligence gathering and homeland security system put into place after the Patriot Act was passed, is a bureaucratic administrative state without the presence of elected officials controlling the apparatus. That leads to the following question:

    How can a constitutional republic function without elected officials in control of it?

    That question is at the heart of our current situation.

    That question is at the epicenter of this “new American democracy” that no one seems to understand.

    The simple answer is it cannot.

    We have been fighting this three-headed IC monster (DHS, DNI, DOJ-NSD) ever since.

    This reality the underlying predicate behind why Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the Special Counsel charges against Trump. This reality is also the underlying framework behind why the Supreme Court recently reaffirmed the plenary power of the President with control over the executive.

    In the post-9/11 system that was created by the Patriot Act, our Constitutional Republic was inextricably fractured, placing systems and silos in charge of government under the auspices of “continuity of government.”

    From that moment forth, elected representatives no longer held authority or oversight *over* the national security apparatus. Instead, the Patriot Act flipped the actual system of democratically elected representative government.

    The RESULT: Our elected officials became subservient to the institutional interests of unelected agency officials. As Senator Schumer calls them “the six ways from Sunday” coalition.

    This reality empirically surfaces with people like former AG Bill Barr saying the President does not have unilateral authority over the DOJ. Also, the Lawfare approach and narrative that a President is not the arbiter of governing power. Both statements are constitutionally false, as affirmed by SCOTUS – Thank God.

    Understand this. This is the root of the cancer that was always present, silent and lurking in the background institutions prior to 9/11. After the Patriot Act passed, that cancer fully metastasized and entered the bloodstream of American governance.

    What was previously a slimy bag of institutional snakes, kept in place by a tenuously worn nylon bag – sewn from the remaining fabric of our constitution, was released by the Patriot Act.

    Everything thereafter, including the constant bites we suffer from the unleashed weaponization, is a consequence of that moment.

    That’s the root of our modern political reality.

    This is the “new American democracy,” where the unelected officials and administrators within institutions hold power.

    Under this Patriot Act framework, representative government [executive branch, legislative branch and even the judicial branch] are subservient to those who use the shield of national security. This outcome is the direct consequence of creating a system for the “continuity of government.”

    LEARN IT!

    Then, suddenly, everything about the domestic enemy we confront gets really clear.

    Thankfully, the Supreme Court has now given indications that they understand what has taken place.

    The Supreme Court has recently affirmed that only the President of the United States has the authority to control the Executive Branch.  As a direct and consequential outcome, only the President of the United States can remove the core issue that has corrupted our constitutional intent.

    Every element vested in the “continuity of government” as a manipulation of the constitution are now aligned to eliminate the threat President Donald Trump represents.

    We have one chance.

    Vote like your freedom depends on it, because it does.

    Read the SCOTUS opinion, not from a point of view of President Trump, but from the point of view of what does this allow him to do in his second term, and what invisible straightjackets did it remove that were a threat during his first term?

    While impeachment is a political process within the Legislative Branch, and the Supreme Court is extremely hesitant to overstep their role therein, the High Court did put this sentiment clearly into the opinion about immunity: …“The President is not above the law. But Congress may not criminalize the President’s conduct in carrying out the responsibilities of the Executive Branch under the Constitution.”…

    Congress may not criminalize the conduct of the President simply for carrying out his core executive branch duties.

    Removal of Executive Branch officials is a core duty, an official act, carrying absolute immunity.

    That affirmed reality is exactly why the Deep State and Lawfare crowd are very alarmed.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 23:25

  • Real Estate Bubbles: Where Rent Prices Are Going Up Or Down
    Real Estate Bubbles: Where Rent Prices Are Going Up Or Down

    Across real estate bubble cities, average rent prices have increased 5% since mid-2022 in real terms, while inflation-adjusted home prices have dropped 15%.

    This has played a role in lowering bubble risk over the last two years. In this way, higher rent prices reflect fundamental demand, such as higher population growth, rather than speculation pushing up home prices. Higher incomes across cities has a similar effect in lowering bubble risk.

    This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld, shows the annual change in real rental costs in bubble markets, based on data from UBS’ Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024.

    Rental Costs Are Soaring in Key Bubble Markets

    Although real rents have increased modestly across bubble cities, we can see in the table below that select cities are seeing much higher demand:

    *Paris data as of Q1 2023-Q1 2024.

    Since 2020, real rents in Dubai have surged 60%, outpacing the 40% rise in real home prices.

    This growth reflects a booming population, with 400,000 people moving to the city over the past four years. By 2040, Dubai’s population is expected to grow from 3.8 million to 5.8 million. Today, office occupancy in the financial hub now stands at 91%, surpassing many global centers.

    Similarly, Madrid has seen average rent prices climb. Surging rental costs in Madrid have led to thousands of protesters taking the streets as real rents have risen at nearly triple the rate of real home prices in the last year.

    In contrast, real rents in Singapore have fallen nearly 7%, following government efforts to curb foreign demand. This shift breaks from the previous five years, when rent prices outpaced the property market as the population expanded and housing construction faced delays.

    From a regional standpoint, bubble cities in North America saw the vast majority of declines in average real rent prices. Leading these decreases were Los Angeles (-4.0%), Toronto (-2.8%), and Miami (-2.8%), which rank among the top five bubble risk cities in 2024.

    To learn more about this topic from a U.S.-perspective, check out this graphic on the cities with the highest median rent in America in 2024.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 23:00

  • After The Deluge
    After The Deluge

    Authored by Nancy Rommelmann via RealClearInvestigations,

    At 7:30 a.m. on Friday, Sept. 27, Chris Trusz was standing on one of the bridges spanning the Broad River in Chimney Rock. He wanted to get a photo. It had been raining steadily for 36 hours and the river was running 10 inches above normal. Trusz, who’d moved to the western North Carolina mountain town 18 months earlier, wasn’t worried; residents had been warned there might be a bit of flooding. He got his picture and walked up the hill to his home.

    “Normally I have a sliver of a view of the river,” he said. “Now I’m looking and can see the river clearly.” By the time he got back to Main Street, the Broad was three times as wide and running 30 inches high. Within the hour, buildings had slid off their foundations, some taken down by the furious mud-colored current and disappearing completely.

    “We were watching homes wash by, all kinds of debris,” said Trusz. Worse, he recalled, were the cars being carried away, some with their headlights still on. 

    “I can’t unsee that,” said Trusz, three weeks after Hurricane Helene took down several western North Carolina towns, paralyzed the entire region, and killed at least 123, a number that will almost certainly rise and may prove unknowable.

    It is one of several terrible unknowns the residents of western North Carolina now face. That they were unprepared for Helene is not on them – neither was the government nor anyone else. The “once in a thousand years” storm was not supposed to happen here, 500 miles from the Gulf of Mexico and 2,100 feet above sea level. There had been no local evacuation order even as the storm barreled their way. It would dump 30 inches of rain on western North Carolina and create up to 140-mile-per-hour winds. It would bring down untold thousands of trees. It would knock out the electrical grid, cell phone service, and the water supply all at once. In a matter of hours, it would obliterate the everyday security people felt, leaving survivors blinking into a new reality, wondering if they could or should rebuild lives in a place whose fragility had just been betrayed.

    “If you live here or own a business, where do you go when it’s completely wiped out? I mean, how do you start over from that?” asked Trusz, a property manager for Airbnb who’d just found out the company was forbidding area rentals until June 2025 at least.

    Further betrayal would come, during America’s overheated election season, from politicians, partisans, and conspiracists attempting to use the destruction and death caused by Helene to score political points. While mainstream news outlets suggested the area was being commandeered by armed right-wing militias, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene was tweeting, “Yes they can control the weather” (no elaboration as to who “they” were).

    Echoing a common complaint, Elon Musk claimed that “FEMA is not merely failing to adequately help people in trouble, but is actively blocking citizens who try to help!” Before long, Musk would instead be thanking Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg for “expediting approval for support flights.” Below the radar were the innumerable others stoking discord, including the person who tweeted at me, “Water Back on in Asheville NC. Feels like BLEACH on my skin. Very hot. Burning my face….” This just after he retweeted several racist memes and the claim that the death toll in Asheville was over 8,000.

    Because of its unexpected and painful destruction, western North Carolina has become another symbol of America’s cultural divide. One side is the politicization of everything, as human suffering was quickly transformed into a partisan cudgel swung by party operatives and media outlets who fed the public versions of events that advanced their favored narratives. On the other side was the heroic story of people and government working together as best they could in cataclysmic circumstances to aid and comfort one another. 

    That second, hopeful story is what I found while reporting in and around Asheville last week. In a hotel with no running water, guests, some of whom had multiple trees fall on their homes, made do. While the scene could resemble a pajama party gone wrong, with people shuffling to the Porto-Sans in the driveway and choosing not to comment on the smell of body odor in the elevator, most folks showed concern for what their fellow travelers were going through. They left food and drink on a table in the lobby, next to a paper plate onto which someone had written “Take what you need.” They had neither the luxury nor desire to make political hay from their brethren’s misery. And when the taps turned back on, the water was clear if not yet potable, and when you washed with it, it did not burn.

    Capitalizing on the misfortune of others is reprehensible, and no one I met in western North Carolina had the leisure time or the inclination to do so. Many are still without drinking water. Commercial districts have the same ghostly quality they had during COVID, and the shoulders of many roadways are piled with what was left of downed trees, the white oaks, maples, and pines that drew 14 million visitors a year, especially in late September and October, when the region blazes red and gold. 

    If many of those trees are now gone, what happens to the tourism economy and its $7.7 billion? What of Asheville’s major creative draw, the River Arts District, where floodwaters reached 27 feet and where what studio spaces remain have been taken down to the studs? Where do people find the courage, and the resources, to start again? And what if the thousand-year storm turns out to have a different schedule?

    “I have childhood memories up there in Chimney Rock on Lake Lure, my granddaddy took me up there,” said Beverly Ramsey. “How do you rebuild something like that?”

    Ramsey was driving to T-Birds, the bar she has frequented most days since Helene hit, not to drink but to see how she can help. The Weaverville lounge, usually known for its pool tables and karaoke, had been converted into a repository for donated goods, currently being organized by 25-year-old Alex Holt. Holt worked faster than someone running over hell’s half-acre, organizing the pet food and sleeping bags and propane tanks and maple syrup and other items brought on trailer trucks – so many that, 20 days post-Helene, they were backed up on Old Mars Mill Highway. How many were arriving a day?

    “I couldn’t give you an exact number, they’re coming from Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Mississippi,” said Holt, who clearly had zero time to chat. “We’re just trying to meet everyone’s needs.”

    “Can you imagine getting your period through all this?” Ramsey asked, sorting through a shopping bag a local woman had just dropped off, individual baggies holding six tampons and a two-pack of chocolate cupcakes.

    Ramsey had been in Weaverville, a town of about 5,000 people 11 miles from Asheville, at her elderly mother’s home when Helene hit. As for how terrifying it initially was that morning: not very.

    “I slept through it,” she said. Her main concern, when she woke up and saw the power was out, was being unable to make coffee. She decided to walk to a nearby Bojangles.

    Forty-five minutes later she was back, the scene she encountered outside both impassable and making no sense. Dozens of big trees lay across the suburban street. Climbing over limbs and under fallen power lines, she came across three men using chainsaws to cut a hole in the fallen trees. Did they know what had happened? They did not; they had no cell service. Ramsey checked her own phone. No signal. Overhead, she heard the whomp whomp of a Chinook helicopter. What the hell was going on?

    It was not until that night, when a neighbor used a power inverter to hook a car battery to his television, that Ramsey would begin to learn of the damage caused by Hurricane Helene. The flooding appeared to be the worst since The Great Flood of 1916 when the region experienced 26 inches of rain. Helene would dump 30 inches, or more than 40 trillion gallons, though Ramsey would not know as much for days; no one could, not with all communications cut, and roads crisscrossed with downed trees, and some washed away entirely. Other than by helicopter, there was no way in or out, and in some cases, people could not reach their closest neighbors, to say nothing of the outside world.

    Help nevertheless got through. “That first day, people brought us gas, water,” said Ramsey, who let those who could not get home, or no longer had homes to get to, crash on her floor. Where some blamed the government for not immediately rushing to the rescue, Ramsey praised the self-reliance of her neighbors.

    “Hillbillies and rednecks are a community. They want to talk about how Podunk we are and backwards. But no, we got this,” she said. “We need outside assistance, obviously. But we came together immediately.”

    They mourn the deaths together, too. Ramsey mentions 11 members of the Craig family buried alive in a mudslide, and shows me the cover of a local paper, a photo of Alison Wisely and her two young sons, swept away, along with her fiance, when they left their car and tried to run for safety.

    “And the farms, the water rushed out and took them down to the bedrock,” said Ramsey. “I mean, you don’t come back from that. That kind of property will never be farmed again. Not in our lifetime or even our children’s lifetime.”

    While she has no idea when or whether her commercial cleaning business will reopen, Ramsey is optimistic about the future ­– and she isn’t.

    “I don’t know that Asheville will be any different because it was already a tight community. Now as far as rebuilding places like Chimney Rock, I don’t know that that’s going to happen,” she said. “I have childhood memories up there. This is in the 70s, and very little has changed since then, as far as the aesthetics. So how do you rebuild something like that?”

    Before the rebuilding, the clean-up. How much is complete and how much there is to go, three weeks post-Helene, is not possible to know. Asheville’s River Arts District looks as though it has undergone a bombing: two square miles of crumbled warehouses, brick piles, splintered lumber, and vehicles packed with mud from when the French Broad River, which runs parallel to the RAD, left the district underwater. The fate of the structures, many of them former mills and factories built around 1900, is unknown. What happens to a 120-year-old foundation that’s been sitting under 27 feet of water? Touring the district with Buttigieg on Oct. 17, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper struck a hopeful if vague note, saying the area would “come back” but probably “in a different way.”

    Uncertainty continues as you drive east, on bridges until recently acting as catchments for debris and buildings packed with 12 feet of sludge, debris and more sludge pushed to roadsides and going on for miles. Everywhere, there are earthmovers, bucket trucks, linemen restringing electrical lines, water trucks bringing potable water – proof of life on a landscape that can otherwise appear post-apocalyptic, the town of Swannanoa leveled by the river of the same name, the town of Lake Lure sealed up tight.

    Or nearly sealed. Lake House Restaurant was empty at 4 p.m. but for one bar patron when Rodolfo and Jose Hernandez came in for a bite. The brothers wore T-shirts that read, “S*E*R*T Swadley’s Emergency Relief Team,” the charitable arm of a chain of barbecue restaurants that makes it their business to get food to disaster zones.

    “Brent Swadley, he bring a big, big kitchen and trailers from OKC. We get here last Thursday,” said Rodolfo, who is originally from Puebla, Mexico. He and Jose work as mechanics for the Swadley’s vehicles, though here, they also serve food to work crews. “The people are very happy to get real food, barbecue, steak, ribs, turkey, ham,” says Rodolfo. “Brent Swadley, he has a good heart.”

    An ecosystem of good hearts formed post-Helene: the S*E*R*T team; the hundreds of trucks pulling up to T-Birds; the AI developer who, the day after the hurricane, made it his business to figure out how to find, bottle, and deliver drinking water; the Asheville bakery giving free fresh-baked pastries to patrons who left 20s in the tip jar; the seemingly limitless number of churches (“You hear the state sometimes referred to the as the prong in the Bible Belt,” said Beverly Ramsey, who is also an ordained minister) being of service, including the man in a “Don’t Let the Bad Days Win” shirt unloading pallets of bottled water and baby diapers; private citizens volunteering to go door-to-door to do wellness checks; translators helping non-English speakers fill out aid applications; community centers providing relaxation rooms to exhausted road workers; and the man who keeps a backpack of emergency supplies at-the-ready at all times who brought his 9-year-old daughter with him as he carried life-sustaining goods to people unable to escape their mountain homes, people for whom the surprise of a little girl brought its own kind of sunshine.

    “Kids are just as motivated to help people as adults are,” the man said, adding that he did not bring his daughter on the darker missions, the ones he would not talk about.

    As the people of western North Carolina get their bearings, many who swooped in to help will move to the next disaster; S*E*R*T was also in Florida, providing meals to those hard hit by Hurricane Milton. What “recovery” looks like is as yet unknown, and already there are frustrations, if not always a logical place to put them. People cannot be mad at the storm, or not with any hope of restitution. A storm will never say, “My bad.” And so people are mad, for instance, at their insurance companies, when they find out their policies do not cover flood damage.

    “He’s having an incredibly hard time,” said one retired insurance agent, whose Asheville colleague was so besieged that she and other agents “formed a triage team so all calls went to a human voice. People needed to lay out their heart to someone on the other end of the phone.”

    If for naught: The agent estimated that no more than 2% of policy owners had elected to carry flood insurance, and why would they? Western North Carolina is above the floodplain; the area had not catastrophically flooded since the Great Flood of 1916, also known as “the flood by which all other floods are measured,” a flood Helene out-measured, leaving property owners understandably desperate for someone to tell them there’d be money coming to repair their lives.

    The best insurance could do, said the agent, was “get them a declaration form that says they were not [covered] and they could bring that to FEMA,” the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which, along with other government agencies, was experiencing its share of post-Helene consumer hatred, some of it whipped up by keyboard warriors claiming FEMA was holding “special meetings” to steal people’s homes and confiscate donations (assertions debunked by a local congressman), and that a North Carolina National Guard helicopter had deliberately sabotaged a distribution center (based on rotor wash having accidentally blown over some donated goods).

    “There’s been a lot of rumors on social media in particular, and they’re not helpful in terms of our ability to help people,” said Mike Cappannari, external affairs officer for FEMA. Looking tired but composed amid the hundreds of storm victims milling through a Disaster Recovery Center set up on the campus of A.C. Reynolds High School in Asheville, Cappannari said FEMA had about 2,000 responders in the region, that it was still tough to get to some remote areas, and that in some cases the agency was working in concert with the Department of Defense to create points of distribution as close to disaster sites as possible. As for the wilder stories online, such as FEMA workers being chased down by truckloads of armed vigilantes, “You just try and fight through that,” he said. “Fortunately, over the past handful of days, we’ve seen not as much of that and are just trying to encourage people to register for assistance with us and see how we can help.”

    Hanging out with a volunteer friend on another part of the Reynolds campus, it was hard for Kim Pierce to know what help she needed.

    “I lost everything,” said Pierce, a slip of a woman who’d closed on a new East Asheville condo on Monday, Sept. 23. It was to be the first home she would live in without any of her six grown children, a ground-floor unit for which she’d paid cash, a place she envisioned riding out her semi-retirement with other residents, most of them over 60.

    What she did not envision: waking up on Friday, Sept. 27, to find her new yard underwater. She did not envision moving a few cherished items to the trunk of her car for safety, only to watch her car sink. She did not envision falling into and scrambling out of the rushing Swannanoa River, taking refuge with neighbors she had never met, eating soup with them in a daze, and, because she was perhaps spryer and certainly more stubborn, getting the names, addresses, and prescription medications of these strangers and pledging to get to the nearest fire station to implore the fire crew to rescue them. Which she was doing when her sons-in-law showed up at her condo, found it underwater, and figured she was dead.

    “When I showed up [at my daughter’s], she came screaming out of the house, she’s sobbing and is like, ‘Mama, I was writing your eulogy!’” said Pierce. “It was so hard to see my child so traumatized.”

    Hard, too, to envision the future when the accumulation and plans of 60-plus years disappear overnight. “There is beauty that comes out of ashes. And I am experiencing it. I see it in little glimpses,” she said. “And then I go back into this fog of, I’ve lost everything.”

    “Where do you put 30 inches of rain?” asked Chris Trusz, overlooking the Broad River, running today at normal capacity.

    The question answered itself as he walked Main Street, past splintered furniture; car-sized clumps of dried mud, wood, and wire; crushed delivery trucks, dented refrigeration and a winery left precariously cantilevered by the storm.

    “They’re going to have to bring in so much fill to get back up to where you possibly could rebuild,” said Trusz. “Most people will, because it’s a strong little town, but I can’t blame people for wanting to leave.”

    While work crews continued clearing the roads, and while Trusz had nothing but goodwill for private and public sector efforts (“The community, the 101st Airborne, FEMA, everybody’s been here helping out,” he said, waving at several truckloads of National Guard), life in Chimney Rock has yet to resume, residents and business owners still figuratively rising to the surface. While the river was cleaning itself, those sorting through what was left of Gale’s Chimney Rock Shop – the clothing, souvenirs, and photos that had been inside the 77-year-old store now outside in sodden piles on a cold October afternoon – moved with deliberate slowness, trying to assess what could be saved from what was gone forever.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 22:35

  • Trump Election Odds Near 67% As Polymarket Whale Bets Another $2M
    Trump Election Odds Near 67% As Polymarket Whale Bets Another $2M

    Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

    Former United States President Donald Trump’s lead on the top blockchain-based betting market is nearing 67% as a mysterious whale continues to bet on his victory in the upcoming presidential election on Nov. 5.

    Trump’s odds of winning the election surpassed 66.3% on the leading decentralized predictions market on Oct. 28, according to Polymarket data.

    Presidential election winner 2024, one-month chart. Source: Polymarket

    Trump’s odds increased after a Polymarket whale, or large holder, invested another $2 million worth of USD Coin USDC$1.00 tokens into pro-Trump bets.

    The mysterious whale has spent $7.22 million on “Yes” shares, according to onchain intelligence firm Lookonchain, which wrote in an Oct. 28 X post:

    “Since Oct 11, the whale has spent 7.22 million $USDC to buy 11.28 million ‘Yes’ shares on Donald Trump winning the US election, with an unrealized profit of $256,000.”

    With only seven days until the 2024 US presidential election, decentralized prediction markets may offer more accurate predictions than traditional polling systems, according to billionaire Elon Musk.

    The Polymarket odds flipped in Trump’s favor on Oct. 4, marking a sharp reversal from September. By Oct. 12, Trump was leading by over 10 points, Cointelegraph reported.

    Mysterious Polymarket whale seems unrelated to “Fredi9999”

    The mysterious Polymarket whale, known as “zxgngl,” holds over 11.2 million “Yes” votes worth over $7.5 million, according to Polymarket data.

    Zxgngl, Polymarket whale, positions. Source: Polymarket

    The increasing positions come after the top Trump bettor on Polymarket, “Fredi9999,” bolstered Trump’s odds above 60.2% by buying over $20 million worth of “Yes” shares up to Oct. 18.

    Moreover, Fredi’s transaction patterns suggest that it controls four of the six largest Trump-voting accounts on Polymarket, all funded with Kraken deposits.

    Leading Trump bettors. Source: PolyMarket

    While 99% of zxgngl’s bets were also placed on Trump, their account was funded by Binance, not the Kraken exchange. Their transaction patterns are also different, with the last two Binance deposits being worth $338,000 and $1.68 million, respectively.

    Zxgngl, Polymarket deposits. Source: Lookonchain

    As for Fredi, the account is likely controlled by a person with deep confidence in a Trump victory, according to pseudonymous political bettor Domer, who told Cointelegraph:

    “My guess is it is a true believer who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. He is getting more confident as the price goes higher and is in a confirmation bias loop where new information keeps increasing his confidence.”

    US presidential elections fuel 565% prediction market growth

    The upcoming US elections have boosted investor interest in prediction markets.

    The betting volume on prediction markets rose over 565.4% in the third quarter to reach $3.1 billion across the three largest markets, up from just $463.3 million in the second quarter.

    Top three crypto prediction markets. Source: CoinGecko

    This significant third-quarter growth is mainly attributed to the US elections, according to an Oct. 14 CoinGecko report.

    Polymarket, the most prominent decentralized betting platform, dominated the market with over a 99% market share as of September.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 22:10

  • Supreme Court Passes On 2nd Amendment Challenge To Federal Gun Law
    Supreme Court Passes On 2nd Amendment Challenge To Federal Gun Law

    Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Supreme Court has sidestepped a challenge to a federal law prohibiting felons from possessing firearms.

    Instead of scheduling oral argument in the case filed by Lorenzo Garod Pierre, on Oct. 21, the court granted the petition and immediately overturned the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit ruling that Pierre was appealing.

    The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on Oct. 23, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

    The Supreme Court did not provide reasons for its decision. No justices dissented.

    The Supreme Court directed the 11th Circuit to reconsider its ruling in Pierre’s case in light of United States v. Rahimi, a decision the high court issued in June that the federal government said “clarified the methodology for determining whether a firearms regulation complies with the Second Amendment.”

    In Rahimi, the justices upheld Section 922(g)(8) of Title 18 of the U.S. Code, a federal law that bars people under domestic violence-related restraining orders from possessing firearms.

    Specifically, they found that the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution isn’t violated when an individual is disarmed after a court has found him to pose a credible threat to the physical safety of another.

    Pierre said in his petition that he was charged in July 2022 with violating Section 922(g)(1) of Title 18 of the U.S. Code for knowingly possessing a firearm after being convicted of a felony. Court papers did not provide details of the prior felony conviction.

    Pierre asked the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida to throw out the felony-level indictment, arguing that it was “unconstitutional in light of” New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen, which the Supreme Court handed down in June 2022. In Bruen, the nation’s highest court held that firearms restrictions must have a historical analogue and that the Second Amendment protects the right to bear arms in public for self-defense.

    A magistrate judge filed a report that recommended denying the motion to dismiss. Magistrate judges are appointed to assist federal district judges.

    Pierre objected, and the district court refused to dismiss the charge, finding that prior 11th Circuit rulings “squarely foreclosed” the constitutional challenge and were not undermined by the Bruen precedent.

    Pierre lodged an appeal with the 11th Circuit arguing that his conviction “as applied” ran afoul of the Second Amendment. In an as-applied challenge, a litigant argues that a statute or regulation is unconstitutional in the context of a specific case.

    On March 12, the 11th Circuit affirmed the district court in a two-page decision, holding that the circuit court’s prior rulings were binding in the case.

    Pierre argued in his petition that, since Bruen was decided, federal courts of appeals have been split on whether a “defendant may mount a challenge that his individual circumstances do not supply a basis, consistent with the Second Amendment, for stripping the right” to possess firearms.

    The 11th Circuit says felons are “categorically ‘disqualified’ from exercising their Second Amendment right,” but the Seventh and Ninth circuits allow defendants to file as-applied challenges to charges under Section 922(g)(1).

    The Supreme Court should grant review to resolve the circuit split, the petition states.

    U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar argued in a Sept. 16 brief that the Supreme Court should grant the petition and send the case back to the 11th Circuit with instructions to review its ruling in light of Rahimi.

    The Rahimi decision contains within it the proper legal standard for evaluating the Pierre case because it “clarified the methodology for determining whether a firearms regulation complies with the Second Amendment.”

    And because the Supreme Court vacated judgments in five separate challenges to Section 922(g)(1) in July and sent those cases back to circuit courts for review in light of Rahimi, “consistent with that practice, the Court should grant the petition … in this case, vacate the court of appeals’ judgment, and remand for further consideration in light of Rahimi,” Prelogar said.

    The Epoch Times reached out for comment to Pierre’s attorney, Brian Taylor Goldman of Holwell, Shuster, and Goldberg in New York City, and the U.S. Department of Justice but had received no replies as of publication time.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 21:45

  • Overton Window Shifts Towards Liberty
    Overton Window Shifts Towards Liberty

    There’s been a seismic shift in the mood of the American people. Have you noticed?

    The propaganda and manipulation by Democrats, Deep State non-profits (funded by radical leftist billionaires), and corporate media outlets have lost control of the narratives just days before the presidential election—they’re no longer effective at propping up Kamala Harris—as a majority of American people reject censorship, wokeism and whatever this is... 

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    Americans are now more interested in upholding the values of the West, the US Constitution, and the Declaration of Independence, with some youth seeking traditionalism. The far-left slant of the Overton window during the Biden-Harris administration appears to be shifting the other way/ or perhaps widening. 

    The Overton Window is a range of acceptable policy ideas within mainstream political debate. For years, corporate MSM, radical leftist non-profits, and far-left activists in government and corporations have artificially pushed the window to the left, force-feeding Americans into radical leftist ideas to transform the nation towards a pathway towards socialism/or 21st-century communism.

    History may show that Elon Musk’s X and former President Trump shifted the Overton Window from a leftist extreme to more of a center-right. Americans are increasingly giving up on woke pronouns, instead focusing on “Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.”

    Musk has shown MSM’s matrix has glitched, with an X post stating, “The refreshing cool breeze of a wide open Overton Window.” 

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    Musk followed up on the Overton Window on Sunday evening. He said, “Ever wondered about the Overton Window?” 

    Musk quoted X user Jash Dholani, who explained the origins of the Overton Window and just exactly how this model shows wokeism is coming to an end. The window has shifted to the center-right. 

    Here is the explainer:

    The Long View states…

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    “The most important thing to understand about the Overton Window is that it is not static, it is always on the move. Not only can the window shift left or right, but the window itself can also expand and contract based on a number of different cultural and political factors,” another X user noted. 

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    Overton Window has shifted so severely in recent months… And we wonder why.

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    Like many of Trump’s new supporters this year. 

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    What’s clear is that the Overton Window has shifted towards “Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.” 

    Earlier this year, we stated: “Open The Overton Window.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 21:20

  • Michigan's Early Voters Brave Long Lines, Break Records
    Michigan’s Early Voters Brave Long Lines, Break Records

    Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    As Michigan’s statewide early voting began on Oct. 26, long wait times discouraged more than a few would-be participants who spoke with The Epoch Times.

    The Michigan state flag waves in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on Aug. 28, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

    Bill Keller decided against sitting in a two-hour line in Farmington Hills.

    “I think what I’ll do is absentee vote,” the supporter of Vice President Kamala Harris told The Epoch Times before he walked back to his car.

    Farnsworth and Tricia Howard were deterred by the line at a site in Waterford Oaks.

    Farnsworth, a retired United Auto Workers union representative, told The Epoch Times they planned to vote for former President Donald Trump in the hopes of ushering in “a new era.”

    Bill Keller was discouraged by long lines on the first day of early voting in Farmington Hills, Mich., on Oct. 26, 2024. He plans to vote absentee. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

    For all the attrition, the state posted record-breaking returns.

    It is Michigan’s first presidential election to see the process of early voting, which was instituted via a 2022 ballot proposal to amend the state constitution, and Oct. 26 saw more than 145,000 early ballots cast.

    “We’re starting a new tradition of early voting here in Michigan,” Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said in a statement announcing the figures.

    The buzz of activity was reflected in the polling numbers. By late in the afternoon, 463 ballots had been pushed through the tabulator at the Farmington Hills site.

    “This is a higher turnout than we expected,” said Dawn Raymond, who was overseeing early voting at the site.

    She told The Epoch Times that things had gone well: “We haven’t had many people with any political issues that they’re trying to bring up with us when it’s something that we shouldn’t be discussing here.”

    For senior citizen Leia, like many other voters, 2024 is about more than policy and dry statistics—it is charged with emotion. She and her husband Hans did not wish to use their real name for fear of reprisal.

    A dietician, Leia described the election as her chance to oppose Trump, a man she likened to Nazi leader Adolf Hitler.

    “Harris makes you feel good,” she said.

    Leia’s husband, Hans, noted that his own brother-in-law was attending a nearby Trump rally. Harris held a rally in the state the same day.

    “All my friends that like Trump think that somehow, that Trump’s going to make their lives better,” said Hans, a retired specialty store owner. “What the world would be like if Trump does everything he says he’s gonna do—that’s a scary, scary thought.”

    A few feet away, Emma Wolford had just voted in her first election as a U.S. citizen.

    “I moved to the U.S. from England when I was almost nine,” she said.

    Emma Wolford after voting in her first election as a U.S. citizen in Farmington Hills, Mich., on Oct. 26, 2024 (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times).

    Trump earned her support.

    “I left a socialist country and came here for a better future,” she said.

    Wofford is a graduate of Hillsdale College, a school known for its conservatism. Some of her friends from that institution oppose Trump, she said.

    Tricia Howard said her biggest motivator to vote was “the safety of our country.”

    Her husband Farnsworth, who is a U.S. Army veteran, was particularly concerned about the border.

    He isn’t happy that foreigners who entered the country illegally can get resources even as many American veterans are homeless.

    The retired UAW union representative is also concerned about electric vehicle mandates.

    Another couple, Adam and Michelle Stankus, waited roughly an hour in line at Waterford Oaks. They weren’t making a statement by showing up on day one of early voting—they just wanted to get it out of the way.

    “Vote now, vote later, vote mail-in—it’s all the same,” Adam Stankus said.

    They were glad to vote against Trump—“against fascism,” as Adam put it.

    Matthew Kovach, who was waiting for his ride outside the Waterford Oaks site, said he came out to fight communism and globalism. To him, that meant voting for Trump.

    Kovach was disabled after a serious car accident in 2021.

    Early voter Matthew Kovach in Waterford Oaks, Mich., on Oct. 26, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

    “They thought I was going to be a vegetable,” he recalled. He thanked God that didn’t happen.

    “They say President Trump dodged death. I dodged death. That’s the only thing we’ve got in common,” he said with a laugh.

    Kovach hopes to play hockey again someday. For now, he’s recovering his mobility. He brought his crutches to the early voting site in case of long lines.

    Andy Kollin spent an hour and fifty minutes at the Farmington Hills site.

    “I don’t want to see #45 [Trump] in office again,” he said when asked what brought him out on the first day of early voting.

    Kollin said he was glad to see people turn out in high numbers, “whichever way they’re voting.”

    Shortly before 4:30 p.m., a trio of young Michiganders appeared on the edge of the parking lot at the Waterford Oaks site. A young man and two young women were trying to cast their early ballots before the site closed for the day.

    The Epoch Times jogged with them to the door, where they barely missed the cutoff. Nathan Rehm let out a groan.

    “I’m more of a Trump guy,” said Rehm, an engineering student at Michigan State University (MSU). Winter Runyan and her sister, Gabby, both support Trump too.

    “I just can’t imagine Kamala Harris sitting down with world leaders,” he said.

    Rehm has grown more comfortable voicing support for Trump on campus. He wonders if hatred for the former president has ebbed

    Nathan Rehm, Winter Runyan, and Gabby Runyan at an early voting site in Waterford Oaks, Mich., on Oct. 26, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

    “What college major you are plays a role,” said Winter Runyan, who is also an MSU student. “He’s an engineering major, so I feel like a lot of people are more on the Republican side,” she said of Rehm.

    As a health care student, Winter Runyan’s less inclined to reveal her political preference to her peers.

    “I do feel judged, and I definitely think they’re going to have some view towards me,” she said, adding that she counts many Democrats among her friends.

    The Runyan sisters work alongside each other. Gabby is a dispatcher, while Winter is an emergency medical technician. Winter wants to be a physician assistant.

    Although the three weren’t pleased to miss out on the first day of early voting, they were determined to make their voices heard.

    “We’ll be back tomorrow,” Winter Runyan said.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 20:55

  • Virginia Asks US Supreme Court To Allow Its Removal Of Non-Citizens From Voter Rolls
    Virginia Asks US Supreme Court To Allow Its Removal Of Non-Citizens From Voter Rolls

    Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

    Virginia officials filed an emergency application with the U.S. Supreme Court on Oct. 28 asking the justices to allow the state to remove suspected noncitizens from the voter rolls.

    The application was filed in the case known as Beals v. Virginia Coalition for Immigrant Rights.

    The application was directed to Chief Justice John Roberts, who oversees emergency litigation from Virginia.

    The lead applicant, Susan Beals, is Virginia’s Commissioner of Elections.

    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit found unanimously on Oct. 27 that taking the names off the voter rolls within 90 days of an approaching federal election appears to violate the National Voter Registration Act.

    Federal elections are scheduled for Nov. 5.

    The Supreme Court previously held in Purcell v. Gonzalez (2006) that courts should not change rules close to an election because doing so creates a risk of causing confusion.

    Virginia counters that the legal provision is not relevant because the names being removed are not those of U.S. voters.

    But “that argument violates basic principles of statutory construction by focusing on a differently worded statutory provision that is not at issue here and proposing a strained reading of the Quiet Period Provision to avoid rendering that other provision absurd or unconstitutional,” the Fourth Circuit said.

    Such an interpretation would be problematic because it would give the words “voters” and “registrant” an identical meaning, the circuit court said.

    Moreover, Virginia had not demonstrated its appeal was likely to succeed or that it would suffer irreparable harm should the appeal be denied, the circuit court said as it affirmed an Oct. 25 ruling by U.S. District Judge Patricia Tolliver Giles.

    Giles wrote that Virginia was still free to cancel the voter registration of noncitizens individually or to investigate “noncitizens who register to vote or who vote in Virginia’s election.”

    The ruling applies only to Virginia’s “systematic” effort to remove noncitizens that began after Aug. 7, she added.

    In the new application, Virginia said it objected to the district court decision because “less than two weeks before the 2024 Presidential Election, and more than a month into early voting, the district court … ordered Applicants, Virginia and its election officials, to place over 1,600 self-identified noncitizens back onto Virginia’s voter rolls, in violation of Virginia law and common sense.”

    Virginia said the Supreme Court should stay the district court ruling because it “is based on a misinterpretation of the [National Voter Registration Act], which does not prohibit Virginia from removing noncitizens from its voter rolls.”

    The ruling would also “impose significant cost, confusion, and hardship upon Virginia, creating a massive influx of work for its registrars in the critical week before the election, and likely confusing noncitizens into believing that they are eligible to vote.”

    Roberts directed co-respondents Virginia Coalition for Immigrant Rights, League of Women Voters of Virginia, African Communities Together, and the federal government to respond to the application by 3 p.m. on Oct. 29.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 20:05

  • Trade Data Reveals Indian Biotech Firm Supplying US AI Chips To Russia
    Trade Data Reveals Indian Biotech Firm Supplying US AI Chips To Russia

    A new analysis of public trade data suggests that Brussels and Washington’s efforts to entirely block Moscow from accessing cutting-edge Western technology may have encountered a critical stumbling block. An apparent loophole has emerged in India: A biotech firm, possibly acting as a front company, has purchased servers with advanced US chips, which are then rerouted and shipped to Russia. 

    Investigative reporters with Bloomberg shed light on Shreya Life Sciences, a so-called biotech firm located in Mumbai. They cite trade data compiled by trade-tracking firms ImportGenius and NBD that show Shreya exported 1,111 units of PowerEdge XE9680 Rack Servers produced by Dell Technologies to Russia.

    On Dell’s website, the product description for the PowerEdge XE9680 reads, “Take on demanding artificial intelligence, machine learning and deep learning. Rapidly develop, train and deploy large machine learning models with this high-performance application server made for artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and deep learning. Dell’s PowerEdge XE9680 delivers the industry’s best AI performance.” 

    Further down in the product description, Dell notes the servers are equipped with either Nvidia or AMD chips. 

    Bloomberg noted that the servers and chips are on a blacklist by the US and the European Union, preventing the flow of technology to Moscow. The EU, in cooperation with the US, UK, and Japan, has said these sanctions on Russia are “to target sensitive sectors in Russia’s military-industrial complex and to limit its access to crucial advanced technology.” 

    Source: Bloomberg

    According to Bloomberg journalists, trade data shows that two Russian trading companies, Main Chain Ltd. and IS LLC, imported AI servers with US chips totaling $300 million to Russia.

    Source: Bloomberg

    Taking this investigative report even further, public trade data compiled by counterparty and supply chain risk intelligence firm Sayari shows Russian buyers Main Chain, IS, and Mine Hine imported these PowerEdge XE9680s from Shreya in April and May. 

    Source: Sayari

    Data compiled by Sayari is then produced in a web visual form to show how the Indian pharma company pumped hundreds of these Western AI servers into Russia earlier this year. 

    Additional trade data by the supply chain risk firm shows that 81% of Shreya’s total exports this year have been directed to Russia.

    Source: Sayari

    Most of the export shipments to Russia were computers and processing machines… Not really biotech-ish, eh? 

    Source: Sayari

    Maybe the journos at Bloomberg have stumbled upon a front company that allows Russia to evade Western sanctions on procuring AI tech. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 19:40

  • NATO Chief Says North Korean Troops Are Helping Regain Territory In Russia's Kursk
    NATO Chief Says North Korean Troops Are Helping Regain Territory In Russia’s Kursk

    NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday has introduced yet another new bombshell claim related to allegations of North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine alongside Russian forces.

    At a press conference in Brussels, which reportedly followed a private briefing by South Korean intelligence officials, Rutte claimed that there is intelligence confirming that North Korean military units have been deployed to Russia’s southwest Kursk region.

    The Kursk region has been subject of a Ukrainian cross-border offensive which began in early August. It shocked Kremlin leadership, given Ukrainian soldiers were able to hold on to hundreds of kilometers of territory.

    Part of Kiev’s aim appears to have been to distract Russia’s military from its operations in Ukraine’s east, and divide resources, forcing the Russians to deal with clawing back their own territory.

    But now the accusation appears to be that Kim Jong Un’s North Korean military is assisting in getting Kursk back. Rutte has called it a sign of “growing desperation.”.

    “The deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is a threat to both the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security,” Rutte said at the press conference. “The deployment [of] North Korean troops to Kursk is also a sign of Putin’s growing desperation.”

    Butte urged: “NATO calls on Russia and the DPRK to cease these actions immediately.”

    Zelensky’s office has once again used alleged North Korean involvement to call for more immediate military help from Western allies. “This is an escalation. Sanctions alone are not enough. We need weapons and a clear plan to prevent North Korea’s expanded involvement in the war in Europe,” Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak said.

    “Today, Russia brings in North Korea; next, it could broaden their engagement, and then other autocratic regimes may see that they can get away with this and come to fight against NATO,” Yermak added. “The enemy understands strength. Our allies have this strength.”

    President Joe Biden also on Monday slammed the apparent North Korean troop deployment as a “dangerous” development: 

    “Very dangerous,” Biden said when asked about the North Korean deployment, as he spoke to reporters after casting his early vote in the US presidential election in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware.

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    For the first time, the Kremlin has appeared to admit some level of North Korean military troop assistance related to the Ukraine conflict: 

    In a response, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pointed to a security and defense treaty signed by Moscow and Pyongyang in June.

    “We have said many times that the treaty is not secret, it is public, the entire text has been published, and it in no way violates any provisions of international law, because it involves, among other things, the providing of assistance in case one of the countries that is a party to the treaty is militarily attacked,” he told a press conference in Moscow, in comments reported by the Interfax news agency.

    Lavrov added: “So our position here is absolutely honest and open.” But nothing has been disclosed in terms details of precisely where DPRK soldiers might be operating.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 18:50

  • The Political Theology That Maintains State Power
    The Political Theology That Maintains State Power

    Authored by John Kennedy via The Mises Institute,

    For religions throughout the world, established rules, studies, and practices are instrumental for their legitimacy. Established religious institutions throughout the world train theologians to study the nature of God and their belief system. For the Sunni Muslims, theologians in the Hanafi school consist of legal studies in line with Islam, while others like the Murji’ah sect focus on moral teachings of work and faith. Catholics too prescribe specialized areas of study to theologians, whether that be social teachings on leading a moral life or supernatural studies of God.

    Whatever the case, each of these studies offers legitimacy to the faith and to the clergy, so the state, in all its omnipotence, follows suit. The late German jurist Carl Schmitt held that the “omnipotent state” practices its legitimacy similarly.

    Writing in his book, Political Theology, that “all significant concepts of the modern theory of the state are secularized theological concepts.”

    As the age of monarchs came to a close in the early 20th century and the age of massive ideological states came into play, new concepts and ideas had to be developed, as they did not have a “mandate of heaven” to legitimize their power.

    The United States government, for instance, has had an army of academics, experts, and celebrities to legitimize its actions.

    Their political theology consists of some of the following: economics, law, and the hard sciences.

    Analyzing these concepts, we can see how the state and its clergy weaponize them in order to maintain their power.

    Economics

    In 1994, Charlie Rose interviewed the British businessman James Goldsmith. Sir Goldsmith was campaigning in the European Union against the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), a component of the WTO agreement. In 1995, 125 countries had signed onto the agreement, which included agricultural subsidies. Goldsmith warned in the interview that this would lead to massive emigration from third-world countries and that people in western society had come to serve an economic index that harms them.

    He claimed that, if the GATT were adopted, we would be:

    Creating mass immigration, which none of us could control. We would be destroying the towns, which are already largely destroyed. Look at Mexico; look at our own towns, and we’re doing this for economic dogma because we’ve got to get it done by the end of December. We can’t wait another year or two to see the results. Otherwise some political gimmick like Fast Track will go out of the way. What is this nonsense? Everything is based in our modern society on improving an economic index. How do we get greater economic growth? How do we grow the GNP? The result is, we are destroying the stability of our societies because we are worshiping the wrong god, economic index.

    It is economic orthodoxy today that GDP must grow and that financial stimulus is one way of doing this. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States government issued stimulus checks from the low of $600 to a high of $1,400 per person. Assistant professor Christina Patterson of the University of Chicago suggested that when Congress pumped the money into the economy during COVID, the highest growth came from the individual household. Her suggestion: “Lawmakers should give the money to people who will spend most of it, rather than sock it away in savings.”

    To suggest that the COVID stimulus grew the economy is preposterous. Some of the real effects of the “stimulus” are as follows: nearly 7,000 firms are considered “zombie firms” that are laden with debt, an increase of 30 percent over the last ten years; the average price inflation rate in 2022 was 8 percent, with a high of 9.1 percent in June 2022; grocery prices increased by 20 percent. The inflationary expansion of the money supply and adjustment of interest rates by the Federal Reserve during this time caused the increase in prices. The Federal Reserve propping up the stock market led to the rise of zombie firms because of malinvestment, but mainstream economists refuse to believe their orthodoxy is wrong.

    Law

    The United States has prided itself on being a land of law, where the rule of law reigns supreme and all its subjects, even the president, cannot usurp it. This is an illusion in our current political theology. America’s “supreme law of the land,” the Constitution, has been nothing more than a suggestion for much of its history. Whether that be censorship against the freedom of speech and press, as seen with the Espionage Act of 1917, or with the illegal mass surveillance by the NSA as exposed by Edward Snowden in 2013. Each case violated amendments in the Constitution, the 1st and 4th respectfully. Despite the controversy, the Espionage Act is still in effect and Edward Snowden is in exile in Russia.

    Despite this, the establishment is still unwavering in their claims of being defenders of American law and democracy. What they’re really defending is their so-called mandate of heaven. Just as the Chinese Emperors had this supernatural mandate, the president, the Congress, and the bureaucrats each have the supernatural concept of “law” on their side. Hugo Krabbe, a Dutch political scientist, developed an explanation for the legitimacy of constitutional law in his book The Modern Idea of the State, saying:

    We no longer live under the dominion of persons, either natural or fictitious legal persons, but under the dominion of norms [laws], of spiritual forces. In this is revealed the modern idea of the state…. These forces rule in the strictest sense of the word. Obedience can be freely rendered to these forces, for the very reason that they do proceed from the spiritual nature of mankind. (italics in original)

    The entire constitutional legal order is, therefore, based on man’s sense of right and wrong. Just as Moses took down the Ten Commandments on Mount Sinai to the Israelites, so do we receive the law from the politicians on Capitol Hill and in the halls of bureaucratic departments. This is how the American establishment is able to maintain its power, by linking their positions of authority to American “morality” that they claim is linked to the law. Any attack against them or to the law is a threat to the American way of life and the regime will use all the means at its disposal to silence you. The former British PM, Tony Blair, had described himself and all who govern as a Moses-like figure in his book, On Leadership. He had stated:

    I liken governing to leading people on a journey. You don’t just start by stepping out. You begin with a description of the destination—the house on the hill you might call it…. Think of Moses and the Exodus from Egypt. You might have thought that since he was leading his people out slavery and oppression, they would have been perpetually grateful. But they weren’t. They complained bitterly much of the time. They dissented. They rebelled. They frequently averred that they would have been better off if he had just left them where they were.

    Many of the bureaucrats that rule, whether from places such as London, Brussels, or Washington DC, have a Messiah complex. All they do is for the benefit of the democratic system and, therefore, the whole Western world. From here, the regime can continue to manage its economy and wars without interference, as James Burnham said in his book The Managerial Revolution:

    They proclaim the rules, make the law, issue the decrees. The shift from parliament to the bureaus occurs on a world scale. The actual directing and administrative work of the bureaus is carried on by new men, a new type of men. It is, specifically, the MANAGERIAL type. The active heads of the bureaus are the managers-in-government, the same, or nearly the same, in training, functions, skills, habits of thought as the managers-in-industry.

    Because of the form the law has taken, we’re no longer ruled; we’re administered. The term “law and order” becomes merely a tool to contain what Carl Schmitt has called the “exception.” When the current regime finds the state of things abnormal, they can declare war on it. Whether they be abstract concepts such as “disinformation,” against populists like Donald Trump, or against ideologies like “fascism” and white supremacy.

    Conclusion

    In the past, kings could legitimize their power through alliances with a church or spiritual leader to show that their rule was established by a higher authority, an alliance of the throne and altar.

    Today, politicians and bureaucrats use the “sciences” and their experts to establish their authority.

    Economists at the Federal Reserve and IMF fund the government’s schemes, judges support laws via theories that violate the Constitution, and you, while dissenting, will follow the “new Moses” to the house on the hill.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 18:25

  • After "Colossal" Exodus Of Subscribers, WaPo Boss Bezos Explains "The Hard Truth" About Not Endorsing Kamala
    After “Colossal” Exodus Of Subscribers, WaPo Boss Bezos Explains “The Hard Truth” About Not Endorsing Kamala

    In what is likely even more harrowing for the Op-Ed editors at The Washington Post, Jeff Bezos has just penned an explainer for his decision to not allow the liberal rag to endorse Kamala.

    We present the opinion piece here in full (with some emphasis by us) – this is shocking levels of honesty!

    The hard truth: Americans don’t trust the news media

    The credibility gap can be bridged by independence.

    In the annual public surveys about trust and reputation, journalists and the media have regularly fallen near the very bottom, often just above Congress. But in this year’s Gallup poll, we have managed to fall below Congress. Our profession is now the least trusted of all. Something we are doing is clearly not working.

    Let me give an analogy. Voting machines must meet two requirements. They must count the vote accurately, and people must believe they count the vote accurately. The second requirement is distinct from and just as important as the first.

    Likewise with newspapers. We must be accurate, and we must be believed to be accurate. It’s a bitter pill to swallow, but we are failing on the second requirement. Most people believe the media is biased. Anyone who doesn’t see this is paying scant attention to reality, and those who fight reality lose. Reality is an undefeated champion. It would be easy to blame others for our long and continuing fall in credibility (and, therefore, decline in impact), but a victim mentality will not help. Complaining is not a strategy. We must work harder to control what we can control to increase our credibility.

    Presidential endorsements do nothing to tip the scales of an election. No undecided voters in Pennsylvania are going to say, “I’m going with Newspaper A’s endorsement.” None. What presidential endorsements actually do is create a perception of bias. A perception of non-independence. Ending them is a principled decision, and it’s the right one. Eugene Meyer, publisher of The Washington Post from 1933 to 1946, thought the same, and he was right. By itself, declining to endorse presidential candidates is not enough to move us very far up the trust scale, but it’s a meaningful step in the right direction. I wish we had made the change earlier than we did, in a moment further from the election and the emotions around it. That was inadequate planning, and not some intentional strategy.

    I would also like to be clear that no quid pro quo of any kind is at work here. Neither campaign nor candidate was consulted or informed at any level or in any way about this decision. It was made entirely internally. Dave Limp, the chief executive of one of my companies, Blue Origin, met with former president Donald Trump on the day of our announcement. I sighed when I found out, because I knew it would provide ammunition to those who would like to frame this as anything other than a principled decision. But the fact is, I didn’t know about the meeting beforehand. Even Limp didn’t know about it in advance; the meeting was scheduled quickly that morning. There is no connection between it and our decision on presidential endorsements, and any suggestion otherwise is false.

    When it comes to the appearance of conflict, I am not an ideal owner of The Post. Every day, somewhere, some Amazon executive or Blue Origin executive or someone from the other philanthropies and companies I own or invest in is meeting with government officials. I once wrote that The Post is a “complexifier” for me. It is, but it turns out I’m also a complexifier for The Post.

    You can see my wealth and business interests as a bulwark against intimidation, or you can see them as a web of conflicting interests. Only my own principles can tip the balance from one to the other. I assure you that my views here are, in fact, principled, and I believe my track record as owner of The Post since 2013 backs this up. You are of course free to make your own determination, but I challenge you to find one instance in those 11 years where I have prevailed upon anyone at The Post in favor of my own interests. It hasn’t happened.

    Lack of credibility isn’t unique to The Post. Our brethren newspapers have the same issue. And it’s a problem not only for media, but also for the nation. Many people are turning to off-the-cuff podcasts, inaccurate social media posts and other unverified news sources, which can quickly spread misinformation and deepen divisions. The Washington Post and the New York Times win prizes, but increasingly we talk only to a certain elite. More and more, we talk to ourselves. (It wasn’t always this way — in the 1990s we achieved 80 percent household penetration in the D.C. metro area.)

    While I do not and will not push my personal interest, I will also not allow this paper to stay on autopilot and fade into irrelevance — overtaken by unresearched podcasts and social media barbs — not without a fight. It’s too important. The stakes are too high. Now more than ever the world needs a credible, trusted, independent voice, and where better for that voice to originate than the capital city of the most important country in the world? To win this fight, we will have to exercise new muscles. Some changes will be a return to the past, and some will be new inventions. Criticism will be part and parcel of anything new, of course. This is the way of the world. None of this will be easy, but it will be worth it. I am so grateful to be part of this endeavor. Many of the finest journalists you’ll find anywhere work at The Washington Post, and they work painstakingly every day to get to the truth. They deserve to be believed.

    The irony, of course, is that the alt-media space (and most non-liberal reporters) have been saying much of this for years – only to be cajoled, banned, black-balled, refused-access.

    The question is – now that Bezos has smashed the glass ceiling of elite aloofness – will we see the usual tsunami of screaming, hysterical resignations (“I could never work for someone who said those words in his out loud voice”) – or…

    Is this the turning point – is this the moment when media reverts back to news and not opinion?

    Where will all those ‘resigning’ reporters go to work if other media owners follow Bezos’ path? Substack? How’s that working out for the liberalati?

    We suspect (strongly) that this will not be a quick turnaround. The blinkered libtard defense of all that is righteously progressive (and therefore ‘the truth’) will not disappear overnight.

    A generation of so-called ‘journalism students’ need to be de-programmed from “their truth” (preferably not in camps), and they (and their professors) won’t go quietly into the night, that is for sure.

    And along those lines, shortly after Bezos dropped this op-ed, another major mainstream news outlet decided NOT to endorse Kamala…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    *  *  *

    As we detailed earlier, Jeff Bezos’ decision for The Washington Post not to endorse a presidential candidate this year has resulted in a total shitshow for the progressive newspaper, with staffing members having epic meltdowns and editor-at-large Robert Kagan (husband of Victoria Nuland) walking off the job on Friday. Even more troubling for the paper is the mass exodus of liberal subscribers being reported by NPR News on Monday afternoon. 

    According to two sources within the paper and familiar with the subscriber exodus, over 200,000 digital subscription cancellations had occurred by Monday afternoon. 

    Not all cancellations take effect immediately. Still, the figure represents about 8% of the paper’s paid circulation of 2.5 million subscribers, which includes print as well. The number of cancellations continued to grow Monday afternoon. -NPR

    Former Post Executive Editor Marcus Brauchli told NPR, “The problem is, people don’t know why the decision was made. We basically know the decision was made, but we don’t know what led to it.”

    The editorial page editor, David Shipley, told colleagues that WaPo’s publisher, Will Lewis, said the reason for the lack of a Harris-Walz endorsement was to create an “independent space” where the newspaper does not tell people for whom to vote.

    WaPo has mostly endorsed Democrats for nearly a century (with only 3 Republicans since 1928): 

    • 1932 to 1944: Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democrat)

    • 1948: Thomas Dewey (Republican)

    • 1952 & 1956: Dwight D. Eisenhower (Republican)

    • 1960: John F. Kennedy (Democrat)

    • 1964: Lyndon B. Johnson (Democrat)

    • 1968: Hubert Humphrey (Democrat)

    • 1972: George McGovern (Democrat)

    • 1976 & 1980: Jimmy Carter (Democrat)

    • 1984: Walter Mondale (Democrat)

    • 1988: Michael Dukakis (Democrat)

    • 1992 & 1996: Bill Clinton (Democrat)

    • 2000: Al Gore (Democrat)

    • 2004: John Kerry (Democrat)

    • 2008: Barack Obama (Democrat)

    • 2012: Barack Obama (Democrat)

    • 2016: Hillary Clinton (Democrat)

    • 2020: Joe Biden (Democrat)

    • 2024: Neutral 

    Back to WaPo’s mass exodus of subs, Google search data shows “cancel Washington Post subscription” has gone parabolic nationwide since the weekend. Most cancelations are based in the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia. 

    And Amazon cancellations, too?

    This is true…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The move comes after the Los Angeles Times declined to endorse Kamala Harris. And perhaps the rationale given the timing – just days before the presidential election –  comes as the race is neck-and-neck with former President Trump. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 18:00

  • Soros-Backed Philadelphia DA Sues To Block Elon Musk's $1 Million Voter Giveaway
    Soros-Backed Philadelphia DA Sues To Block Elon Musk’s $1 Million Voter Giveaway

    Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times,

    Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner is suing to halt Elon Musk’s $1 million giveaway to swing state voters.

    The suit, filed on Monday in the Common Pleas Court in Philadelphia, accused the tech billionaire and his America PAC supporting former President Donald Trump’s candidacy of “running an illegal lottery in Philadelphia, as well as throughout Pennsylvania.”

    The case is based on Pennsylvania’s lottery and consumer protection laws.

    Krasner, a Democrat, clarified in the complaint that is was not about state and federal laws that prohibit vote-buying.

    “Running an illegal lottery and violating consumer protections is ample basis for an injunction and concluding that America PAC and Musk must be stopped, immediately, before the upcoming Presidential Election on November 5,” Krasner told the court in his suit.

    “That is because America PAC and Musk hatched their illegal lottery scheme to influence voters in that election.”

    Specifically, the district attorney alleged that Musk failed to meet Pennsylvania’s requirements for lottery operators, which mandate publishing a “complete set of lottery rules” and detailing measures to protect participants’ personal information. He also raised concerns that the selection of winners may have been rigged.

    “Though Musk says that a winner’s selection is ‘random,’ that appears false because multiple winners that have been selected are individuals who have shown up at Trump rallies in Pennsylvania,” the lawsuit alleges, arguing that the lottery rules are “deceptive.”

    Oh, here’s one more thing to consider…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The suit came after Musk announced the eighth winner of his super PAC’s $1 million prize in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, and doubled down on his pledge to give out awards to registered voters in seven battleground states every day until Election Day.

    To be eligible, participants must sign a petition on the PAC’s website affirming their support of the First and Second Amendments to the Constitution. The online petition form says one has to be a registered voter to participate, but voting itself is not required.

    “We’re trying to get attention for this very important petition to support the Constitution,” Musk told the audience at the Oct. 26 event. “We need the right to free speech; we need the right to bear arms.

    “So we’re going to be giving out a million dollars every day through Nov. 5. All you have to do is sign the petition in support of the First and Second Amendment. That’s it. You don’t even have to vote. It’d be nice if you voted, but you don’t have to. And then just basically sign something you already believe in, and you get a [chance] to win a million dollars every day from now through the election.”

    The America PAC didn’t respond to a request for comment by publication time.

    President Biden thinks it is “totally inappropriate”…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    …but over-ruling the Supreme Court to offer vote-buying bailouts to student loan recipients is “appropriate”?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 17:40

  • Ford Shares Sink After Company Reports Cost Improvements, But Guides Below Street Expectations
    Ford Shares Sink After Company Reports Cost Improvements, But Guides Below Street Expectations

    Ford shares jumped before tumbling after hours on Monday, as the legacy automaker reported guidance that was on the low end of expectations. Like many other automakers, Ford continues to grapple with balancing the costs of EV production, high interest rates and a tapped out American consumer. 

    Ford announced third-quarter revenue of $46 billion, with net income totaling $0.9 billion. This figure includes a $1 billion charge related to its electric vehicle business, which the company had previously disclosed. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) for the quarter came in at $2.6 billion.  

    Here are all the company’s Q3 figures versus estimates, via Bloomberg:

    • Total Revenue: $46.2 billion, up 5.5% year-over-year (y/y), surpassing the $43.07 billion estimate.

    • Ford Blue Revenue: $26.2 billion, exceeding the $24.63 billion forecast.

    • Ford Model e Revenue: $1.2 billion, below the $1.42 billion estimate.

    • Ford Pro Revenue: $15.7 billion, above the $15.28 billion projection.

    • Adjusted EPS: 49 cents, matching analyst expectations.

    • Adjusted EBIT: $2.6 billion, up 18% y/y, though below the $2.77 billion estimate.

    • Adjusted EBIT Margin: 5.5%, improving from 5% y/y but short of the 6.3% forecast.

    • Ford Blue EBIT: $1.63 billion, missing the $1.77 billion estimate.

    • Ford Model e EBIT Loss: $1.22 billion, smaller than the expected loss of $1.34 billion.

    • Ford Pro EBIT: $1.81 billion, outperforming estimates.

    The automaker’s Ford Pro division saw solid growth, with revenue rising 13%. Additionally, Ford Pro Intelligence, the company’s paid software service, reported a 30% increase in subscriptions, reaching nearly 630,000 users.  

    Ford also declared a regular fourth-quarter dividend of 15 cents per share. For the full year of 2024, the company now expects adjusted EBIT to reach approximately $10 billion.

    Ford revised its full-year 2024 outlook, now projecting adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of approximately $10 billion. This is a narrowing from its previous guidance of $10 billion to $12 billion. However, the automaker maintained its forecast for adjusted free cash flow, which is expected to remain between $7.5 billion and $8.5 billion.  

    Here’s a full look at its year forecast:

    • Adjusted EBIT: Now expected to be $10 billion, down from the prior range of $10 billion to $12 billion, and below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $10.63 billion.
    • Ford Pro EBIT: Forecast unchanged at $9 billion, compared to the prior range of $9 billion to $10 billion.
    • Ford Blue EBIT: Now expected at $5 billion, down from the previous range of $6 billion to $6.5 billion.
    • Ford Model e EBIT Loss: Projected to be $5 billion, in line with earlier guidance of a $5 billion to $5.5 billion loss.
    • Ford Credit EBT: Anticipated to reach approximately $1.6 billion.
    • Capital Expenditure: Revised to $8 billion to $8.5 billion, compared to the previous forecast of $8 billion to $9 billion, and close to the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $8.39 billion.
    • Adjusted Free Cash Flow: Maintained at $7.5 billion to $8.5 billion.

    Ford President and CEO Jim Farley said: “We are in a strong position with Ford+ as our industry undergoes a sweeping transformation.”

    He added: “We have made strategic decisions and taken the tough actions to create advantages for Ford versus the competition in key areas like Ford Pro, international operations, software and next-generation electric vehicles. Importantly, over time, we have significant financial upside as we bend the curve on cost and quality, a key focus of our team.”

    Recall last month Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas had downgraded Ford on Chinese supply and rising delinquencies. Jonas mentioned affordability concerns in the U.S. market, claiming it is highly stretched, with inventory levels now back to pre-COVID norms.

    Meanwhile, Auto Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) data shows a growing proportion of consumers are staying delinquent for longer, with higher severity rates. Although subprime defaults are lower in 2023 compared to 2022, prime defaults have increased.  

    The capital intensity required to compete in Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and Autonomous Vehicles (AV) is often overlooked, Jonas says. As the AI and data themes gain traction in the automotive sector, automakers will need to invest tens of billions in proprietary AI models.

    Ford Vice Chair and CFO John Lawler commented: “We are remaking the company with Ford+ into a higher-growth, higher-margin, more capital-efficient and more durable business.”

    “The work we have done over the past few years to restructure our global business — and tailor our product lineup to segments where we know our customers best — is driving continued growth and generating stronger and more consistent cash flow,” he added. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 17:20

  • Israel Threatens Syria's Bashar al-Assad: You Might Be Next
    Israel Threatens Syria’s Bashar al-Assad: You Might Be Next

    Via The Cradle

    Israeli government minister and war cabinet member Gideon Saar threatened Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad on Sunday, warning that he will be “in danger” if his country continues to act as a “conduit” for Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah.

    Saar – who rejoined Benjamin Netanyahu’s government late last month – said during a conference that Tel Aviv “missed an opportunity” to “collapse” Assad’s government, which was “saved” by Iran and Hezbollah. 

    Image edit by Enab Baladi

    Syria must not be permitted “under any circumstances to be a conduit for weapons supply from Iran to Hezbollah,” the minister went on to say, adding that “Israel must make clear to Assad that if he chooses to harm Israeli security in this manner, he places his regime in danger.”

    Israel “will not agree to Hezbollah’s renewed buildup of power through Syria, and will not agree to the opening of a front against it from Syrian territory,” he said. “Removing Assad from the Iranian axis will have far-reaching consequences for Israel’s security.” 

    Israel was heavily involved in supporting extremist groups against the Syrian government at the start of the US-led regime change war against Damascus, which began in 2011. 

    Fighters from Al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front were given Israeli air cover during the 2014 battles against Syrian government troops and Hezbollah in Quneitra. Wounded Nusra Front fighters were also treated at Israeli hospitals in the occupied Golan Heights. 

    Over the past several years, Israel’s air force has been waging an unofficial campaign of indiscriminate attacks against Syria, which aim to stifle the flow of weapons from Iran via Syria to the resistance in Lebanon.

    According to Lebanese analyst and journalist Khalil Nasrallah, this unofficial campaign – dubbed the ‘battle between wars’ – has failed. Israeli attacks on Syria have increased since the start of the war in Gaza and Lebanon in October last year. 

    Since Israel’s massive escalation against Lebanon last month, nearly 2,000 people have been killed and over a million displaced. Israel has begun to target Lebanese–Syrian border crossings under the pretext that they are used to facilitate the delivery of Iranian weapons to Lebanon. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Hezbollah has promised its follower base recently that its military capabilities and weapons are in “great shape,” despite Israeli claims to the contrary. The group has not yet used its more sophisticated and destructive weaponry against Israel. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 17:00

  • Fetterman: Trump Support In PA Is 'Astonishing,' Musk Factor Is 'Going to Really Matter'
    Fetterman: Trump Support In PA Is ‘Astonishing,’ Musk Factor Is ‘Going to Really Matter’

    Democratic Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman is working to help Kamala Harris win the Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes, but can’t help but marvel at the intense, highly-visible support for Donald Trump he sees across the pivotal battleground.   

    A decorated pickup truck promotes Trump’s candidacy on Route 23 in Chester County, Pennsylvania — one of the critical “collar counties” surrounding Philadelphia (Tom Gralish/Philadelphia Inquirer) 

    Agreeing “one hundred percent” with the idea that Trump has a special connection with Pennsylvanians, Fetterman told the New York Times that while Democrats may have trouble grasping it, the phenomenon is undeniable: 

    “There’s a difference between not understanding, but also acknowledging that it exists. And anybody who spends time driving around, and you can see the intensity. It’s astonishing.

    I was doing an event in Indiana County. Very, very red. And there was a superstore of Trump stuff, and it was a hundred feet long, and it was dozens of T-shirts and hats and bumper stickers and all kinds of, I mean, it’s like, Where does this all come from? It’s the kind of thing that has taken on its own life. And it’s like something very special exists there. And that doesn’t mean that I admire it. It’s just — it’s real.” 

    Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes in 2016 and lost it by 80,555 in 2020. While the 2024 race appears to be another close one, six of the last seven Pennsylvania polls tracked by RealClear Polling put Trump in the lead, by margins ranging from one point to three points. Polymarket bettors are bullish on a Trump win: As this is written, the prediction market gives Trump a 63% chance of winning the state. As for his odds of winning the nationwide contest, Trump has edged up to a 2024-campaign-high of 66.5%, while Harris has fallen to 33.7%. 

    Trump speaking at a June rally at Temple University, which is located in crime-ridden North Philly (AFP – Getty Images via New York Post) 

    Fetterman also acknowledged the formidable campaign power of Elon Musk, who’s been sharing rally stages with Trump, holding his own town halls, and handing out million-dollar random prizes to registered swing-state voters who sign a petition:

    “Now Musk is joining him. I mean, to a lot of people, that’s [Marvel Comics Iron Man billionaire alter-ego] Tony Stark. That’s the world’s richest guy. And he’s obviously and undeniably a brilliant guy, and he’s saying, ‘Hey, that’s my guy for president.’ That’s going to really matter.”

    Addressing a key election issue, Fetterman distinguished himself from many in his party by reiterating the importance of having a secure border so American communities aren’t overwhelmed by people needing support.

    Fetterman, who no longer identifies as a Progressive, chided fellow Democrats for being in a state of denial about the negative impact of a large and uncontrolled flow of destitute third-worlders. “[They’re] trying to tell people, ‘well, don’t believe your eyes, it’s going to be OK, it’s all working out.’ It’s not,” said the ever-slovenly Fetterman, who showed up for his video-recorded interview with the Times dressed something like a destitute third-worlder himself — in a black hoodie and gym shorts. 

    Fetterman added: 

    “I’m the most pro-immigration guy there is. But that has to be compatible with a secure border, and I will never listen to anyone’s other side until you can explain, like, how? How do we take care of them? Where did those resources come from? And where do they go? Nobody could provide a serious answer to that.”

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    Fetterman concluded the interview by predicting that Trump will lose an election that he says is more “visceral” than issue-driven: “I do believe enough people will choose Harris. But it’s going to be much, much closer than anyone would want.”  

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 16:40

  • The "Righteously Pissed Off" Are Ready To Go To Work To Fix Whatever They Can
    The “Righteously Pissed Off” Are Ready To Go To Work To Fix Whatever They Can

    Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

    Speaking of Abortion…

    “Good rule of thumb: those who frequently use the word “disinformation” are the ones most likely to be pushing it”

    – Elon Musk

    What were they thinking after they shoved “Joe Biden” into the abyss, like an old refrigerator over the edge of the landfill, and afterward settled — instantly it appears, with no process at all — on Kamala Harris to lead the party to victory in the fall election?

    I will tell you: they were not thinking at all.

    The collective mind of the Democrat elite was a vast vacuum devoid of thought, mass, or light, like a corner of deepest space, lacking even a particle of cosmic debris to evoke the existence of existence.

    Such mindlessness was the consummate expression of a party that for eight years worked every angle of political mental illness toward the loss of its mind, driven by whatever dark energy seeks escape from truth, life, and God — whatever is opposite of creation and being. What you are witnessing is a colossal act of being un-born. The party put out a call to the universe and the universe ordered. . .  an abortion of the Democratic Party! You are reminded again: be careful of what you wish for.

    And so do things stand one week before the election. You have not seen such a vivid demonstration of slowly-and-then-all-at-once since the implosion of Lehman Brothers as the collapse of the Democratic Party this fateful October. Poor Kamala is just collateral damage at this point. She goes out before some manufactured audience and seven-minutes onstage delivering a door-dash order of precooked blather is all she can stand before being overwhelmed by the emptiness and futility of her task. . .  and then she flees back to the waiting limousine (and the chardonnay bottle).

    Meanwhile, her allies — that is, the Democratic Party’s allies — play their own roles in this political abortion. The LA Times and the WashPo declined their usual proforma endorsements, two kisses of death. Those actions last week provoked nervous breakdowns in both newsrooms, cries of anguish, resignations, professional suicides. The news media find themselves in a peculiar position, having gone along for years with the gathering mental illness of the Democratic Party, like incompetent parents in a large dysfunctional family, offering unconditional support for their kids’ intolerable and unacceptable behavior.

    They are flying to pieces now on the CNN chat panels. James Carville, the party’s shriveled Gollum, has gone to IV infusions of Jim Beam, seems like. Jake Tapper gets Sunday schooled by JD Vance and turns into a mewling cat-lady right before your eyes. Anderson Cooper goes all waxy and mute. Joy Reid surrenders to echolalia as her MSNBC fans are subjected to the guest list of P. Diddy’s “freak-offs,” ranting about Hitler. Lawrence O’Donnell is looking more and more like Vincent Price in Return of the Fly. Reality-optional hardly suffices to describe cable news these days.

    You’ve got to ask: can they just let it be? Can they just let go of their insane Jacobin rebellion now and let it fade into history? Then, kick back, recuperate, get their minds right, put their house and family in order, and move on as a legit political faction in a functioning republic? Or, do they burn the asylum down?

    The signals are troubling. They are chattering about Mr. Trump “using the military” against them in the months to come — as if the Abrams tanks were going to roll up to DNC headquarters and blast away. By now, you know that such thoughts expressed by Democratic pols and news pals are always projections of their own wishes. The New York Times published just such a classic paranoid projection exercise last week “. . . telling Americans that if he [Trump] wins, he plans to bend, if not break, our democracy.”

    Surely it is too late, with early voting well underway, to stop any ballot harvesting and other election shenanigans as engineered by master fraudster Marc Elias. In fact, frauds are already being discovered (e.g., Lancaster County, PA.) Not a good look. It is exactly what a conspiracy (to commit election fraud) means in law, and the actual people who cooked the ballots and transported them are going to rat-out those who instructed them to do it. Wait for that, and wait for it to pop up elsewhere around the country. This time, watchers are watching, much more carefully.

    Of course, you know there will be long delays, perhaps a week or more, before definitive election results will get posted. The country’s in a bad way, really frightened of what these desperate Democrats with their mitts still on the levers of power might do. Judge Merchan is scheduled to deliver his bit of mischief November 26 in the New York “Stormy Daniels hush money” case. You can bet that the Supreme Court will squash him like a sow-bug five minutes later and vacate his stupid case.

    Reasonable observers (Rickards, Armstrong) are whispering about martial law and blood in the streets following the election. Yet Mr. Trump’s MAGA legions, appear supernaturally confident now, fortified with a sense of mission. They’re righteously pissed-off about all the hoaxes, the lawfare, the swarming illegal migrants, their squandered tax dollars, and much more. But they are ready to go to work, eager to put their shoulders to the wheel to fix whatever they can and, as they do, the death of the Democratic Party is one abortion they will not shed any tears over.

    Another reminder of who we are as Americans and the mysterious workings of Providence: Father Mapple’s sermon — Orson Welles in the John Huston movie version of Melville’s Moby Dick:

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 16:20

  • Stocks 'Squeeze' Higher, Crude Crushed, Bitcoin Bid Ahead Of Catalyst-Heavy Week
    Stocks ‘Squeeze’ Higher, Crude Crushed, Bitcoin Bid Ahead Of Catalyst-Heavy Week

    Today saw the quiet (short squeeze higher) before the storm of risk catalysts ahead this week (including 41% of SPX earnings and a handful of key macro data – JOLTS, GDP, PCE, NFP). But October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity was better than expected today, adding to momentum in the Citi US Macro Surprise Index…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The ‘good’ data sent rate-cut expectations (hawkishly) lower with 2024 now a coin toss between 1 and 2 25bp cuts and 2025 down to pricing in just 3 cuts…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Goldman’s trading desk noted that market volumes are down -5% and top of book depth is only $8.4mm with a “squeezy price action” evident in stocks: Bitcoin Equities (GSCBBTC1, +7.5%); China ADRs (GSXUCADR, +4.6%);  Non-Profitable Tech (GSXUNPTC, +3%) & Most Short Rolling (GSCBMSAL, +2.8%) – third major squeeze day in a row…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Mag7 stocks ended very marginally higher on the day after a short-squeeze open.

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bear in mind that today marks the first day of the estimated open window period for corporate buybacks with ~50% in open window today. We have already seen a number of companies start entering into new 10b5-1 plans over the past week.

    Taking all that into consideration, Small Caps were the days best performer (squeeze) while Nasdaq was the laggard (barely holding on to unchanged). The S&P lagged The Dow…

    VIX was lower today but the vol term structure for the S&P 500 is very much anticipating some malarkey over the next couple of weeks…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bond yields pushed higher with the ‘Trump Trade’…

    Source: Bloomberg

    With yields up 3-4bps across the curve – but it was a wild day in bond-land with TSYs bid across Europe and then offered during most of the US session…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar ended the day unchanged after extending Friday’s gains, falling back then inching back up to unch…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bitcoin surged back up within a few ticks of $70,000…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Crude prices were clubbed like a baby seal today as the Iran-Israel theatrics seemed to calm traders minds and erase geopolitical risk premium….

    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, USA Sovereign risk continues to rise quietly behind the scenes…

    Source: Bloomberg

    …as the world bids on the ultimate ‘insurance’ bet into an election surprise (red or blue sweep)…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 16:00

  • Treasury Trims Debt Estimates For Current Quarter, But Q1 Borrowing Surge To Follow
    Treasury Trims Debt Estimates For Current Quarter, But Q1 Borrowing Surge To Follow

    Back in July and exactly one quarter ago, when the US Treasury published its debt issuance forecast for the balance of 2024, we said that the “anticipated numbers came close to our estimates for Q3, but well above our forecast for Q4” with the highlight being the Q4 debt issuance number which the Treasury estimated at $565 billion, $115 billion above our estimate of $450 billion (in part due to the Treasury higher TGA estimate of $700 billion vs our assumption of $650 billion).

    Fast forward to today when ahead of Wednesday’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement, at 3pm ET the Treasury published its debt sources and uses forecast for the current and coming quarters, and it showed that the Treasury trimmed its estimate for borrowing for the current quarter, while raising more debt than it previously expected in the quarter ended June 30; The Terasury also continues to expect a $700 billion cash balance at the end of the year, just before the federal debt ceiling kicks back in. Then as we enter 2025, the Treasury expects to raise $823 billion in new debt in the first calendar quarter of 2025, in large part because it expects that the Treasury cash balance will rise by $150 billion to $850 billion, or in other words, the Treasury does not assume another debt ceiling crisis which would push the cash balance sharply lower in Q1 and onward.

    Here are the details from the Treasury statement:

    • During the July – September 2024 quarter, Treasury borrowed $762 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $886 billion, more than the $850 billion initially expected. In July 2024, Treasury estimated borrowing of $740 billion and assumed an end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion. Privately-held net marketable borrowing was $22 billion higher largely because of a $36 billion higher ending cash balance partially offset by higher net cash flows.  
    • During the October – December 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $546 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $700 billion. The borrowing estimate is $19 billion lower than announced in July 2024, largely due to a higher beginning-of-quarter cash balance partially offset by lower net cash flows.

    • During the January – March 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $823 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion. Of note,the end-of-March cash balance assumes another successful “enactment of a debt limit suspension or increase” which, assuming Trump becomes president, is virtually guaranteed will not happen. Indeed, should we get another debt ceiling crisis, the Treasury is quick to note that while the debt limit is not currently binding, “Treasury’s cash balance may be lower than assumed depending on several factors, including constraints related to the debt limit.” Translation: Q1 cash balances will be sharply lower than expected since the odds of a successful debt ceiling renegotiation are slim to none if Trump wins next week.

    Here is the debt schedule in table format:

    Source: Treasury

    Dealers’ expectations for the new borrowing estimate had varied ahead of Monday’s release. Strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. expected a cut to $529 billion. But the team at BNP Paribas predicted an increase to $600 billion, based in part on October and November making up nearly a quarter of the federal government’s annual deficit, a gap that has been steadily widening.

    Meanwhile, the projected $823 billion borrowing need in Q1 2025 would be the highest since the Sept 2023 quarter.

    “We estimate that the Treasury will begin to limit bill supply in March 2025 and will cut bill supply aggressively in Q2,” a team of strategists a TD Securities including Gennadiy Goldberg wrote in a note, which would be expected since by then the Reverse Repo buffer will be all used up. Before then, however, the TD team said that  “with a debt ceiling increase or suspension likely in Q3, Treasury will then ramp up bill issuance aggressively as the cash balance is rebuilt to a more normal level.”

    Wrightson ICAP economist Lou Crandall didn’t expect officials this week to provide any color on their specific expectations for the upcoming debt ceiling timeline. He had predicted a $540 billion October-through-December borrowing estimate ahead of Monday’s release.

    Today’s report comes ahead of Wednesday’s quarterly refunding announcement, when the Treasury will unveil its plans for long-term debt issuance. Bond dealers widely expect that the refunding auctions will total $125 billion for the third straight quarter. Many also expect a ramp up in Bill Issuance in the tail end of the year, which would be a big problem at a time when the Reverse Repo facility only holds just over $200 billion, and is in danger of being rapidly depleted, sparking another repo market crisis.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/28/2024 – 15:48

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Oct 28

Today’s News 28th October 2024

  • Korybko: Brazil's Veto Of Venezuela's BRICS Bid Exposes Multipolar Rift
    Korybko: Brazil’s Veto Of Venezuela’s BRICS Bid Exposes Multipolar Rift

    Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

    Brazil’s ruling Workers’ Party (PT per its Portuguese abbreviation) has presented itself as an Ibero-American champion of multipolarity since its inception, as has its leader President Lula since his first term began in 2003, but these narratives are now challenged like never before after last week.

    Brasil de Fato cited diplomatic sources to report that Brazil vetoed Venezuela’s BRICS partnership request while Putin also acknowledged during a press conference that Russia and Brazil disagree on Venezuela.

    This outcome was made all the more scandalous by Lula’s unexpected “head injury” that was allegedly responsible for him not flying to Kazan and Venezuelan President Maduro’s surprise visit to the event. Lula might have either made-up his injury or exaggerated it in order not to embarrass himself any further by arguing in person against his multipolar neighbor’s requested BRICS partnership. He might also have caught wind of Maduro’s plans and thus ducked out in order to avoid a potential confrontation there.

    In any case, one of the world’s top energy producers wasn’t able to achieve the consensual support required for partnering with the world’s top financial multipolarity platform, though this analysis here from last month explains how non-members and -partners can still coordinate their associated policies with BRICS. Be that as it may, it was still a blow to Venezuela’s prestige not to be inaugurated as an official partner, but Lula’s PT harmed its own reputation in a much worse way by reportedly vetoing this.

    Keeping in mind the abovementioned insight about how any country can voluntarily coordinate its associated policies with BRICS even in the absence of formal membership or partnership status, Brazil could have let Venezuela join in order to keep up the PT’s charade about being a multipolar champion. Instead, it maliciously prevented this, which only served to virtue signal support for the US’ ruling Democrats’ shared policy towards that country at the expense of the trust that Brazil built within BRICS.

    It was explained in August how “Ortega’s Condemnation Of Lula’s Meddling In Venezuela Debunks A Top Alt-Media Lie”, which hyperlinked at the end to a list of over 50 related analyses from October 2022 till then about Lula’s post-imprisonment ideological alignment with that aforesaid imperialist party. In brief, he and his party were never true multipolar champions like they presented themselves as, but were always more akin to “social democrats” or what’s been called the “compatible left” by traditional leftists.

    All the while, however, the PT’s social media influencers and cultish clique of supporters across the world aggressively gatekept the false narrative that their “heroes” pushed. This most often took the form of viciously “canceling” anyone who dared to even remotely question this debunked dogma. This charade was thus kept up until last week when it became impossible to deny that Lula’s PT had betrayed regional multipolar leader Venezuela solely to curry favor from what might soon be the US’ outgoing ruling party.

    There shouldn’t be any question about the veracity of Brasil de Fato’s diplomatic sources either after Venezuela’s Foreign Ministry came out with an official statement slamming Lula’s veto. They described it as an “immoral aggression” that “reproduce[ed] the hatred, exclusion and intolerance promoted from the centres of power in the West.” They then added that “The Venezuelan people feel indignation and shame” after what Lula just did. These are very strong words that should be taken very seriously.

    Readers should also know that while Lula hasn’t acknowledged Maduro’s re-election, Putin proudly thundered during last week’s event that “Venezuela is fighting for its independence, for its sovereignty…We believe that President Maduro won the elections, won fairly. He formed a government.” His words threw the PT onto the horns of yet another narrative dilemma by suggesting that Brazil’s stance is against another fellow Global South country’s “independence” and “sovereignty”.

    The Venezuelan Question is therefore a black-and-white issue: one either supports Lula and Biden’s regime change efforts in Venezuela, with each advancing this in their own but still coordinated way, or they support Maduro and Putin’s defense of Venezuela’s independence and sovereignty.

    There’s no middle ground no matter what lies top PT influencers might soon spew. Honest members from the Alt-Media Community will accurately report this while dishonest ones will keep covering up for the PT.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 23:20

  • Porn-Addicts For Kamala Harris: Billionaire-Funded Far-Left PAC Pushes Cringe Ad 
    Porn-Addicts For Kamala Harris: Billionaire-Funded Far-Left PAC Pushes Cringe Ad 

    Reid Hoffman, billionaire co-founder of LinkedIn and independent director on Microsoft’s board, appears to have donated a substantial amount of money to the “Progress Action Fund” — a PAC led by a far-left activist and former Obama administration alumnus. PAF pushed out one of the cringiest pro-pornographic political ads to drum up support from chronic masturbators for Kamala Harris. 

    Let’s dive directly into the woke left’s cringe-fest ad… 

    Here’s the original report from X user Collin Rugg: 

    NEW: Democrat groups release an ad of a young man m*sturbating in an effort to get people to vote for Kamala Harris. The Democratic Party: The party of abortion and p*rn addicts. Progress Action Fund and Defend the Vote have released a $2.5 million ad campaign with the 30-second ad. The ad was called “Republicans Rubbing You the Wrong Way,” with an actor playing a Republican congressman watching the young man rub one out. The ad campaign is being displayed on streaming services in all seven swing states.

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    PAF noted on its website that it “runs hard-hitting ads to defeat Republicans in swing districts, including the viral ad Keep Republicans Out Of Your Bedroom.” 

    Heading PAF is former Obama activist Joe Jacobson, who identifies as a “he/him.”

    Jacobson is a radical leftist with prior ties to the Service Employees International Union, AFL-CIO, and the Obama administration. 

    According to data from Open Secrets, billionaire Hoffman appears to have funded some of Jacobson’s woke adventures at PAF. Hoffman splurged on PAF this year, donating as much as $500,000 on Sept. 25 and $50,000 on Sept. 19. 

    Daily Wire reporter Megan Basham wrote on X, “It’s a PAC run by an Obama administration alum. And a major funder is Reid Hoffman, co-founder and chairman of LinkedIn.” 

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    What a cringe-fest for Democrats… After unleashing the ‘Trump Nazi’ bazooka in leftist corporate media last week…

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    Now, they are trying to drum up support from porn-addicted Americans funded by Palo Alto elites. Weird.

    Well, it’s not weird unless you understand that this is desperation from Democrats and their billionaire funders. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 22:45

  • Jury: Workers Fired For Refusing COVID-19 Vaccine To Get More Than $1 Million Each
    Jury: Workers Fired For Refusing COVID-19 Vaccine To Get More Than $1 Million Each

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Rail transit officials in California’s Bay Area have been ordered to pay more than $7 million to transit workers who were fired because they refused to get a COVID-19 vaccine years ago.

    A woman closes her eyes while receiving a COVID-19 vaccine at Sydney Road Family Medical Practice in Balgowlah, in Sydney, Australia, on Jan. 10, 2022. Jenny Evans/Getty Images

    On Oct. 23, a federal jury in the U.S District Court for the Northern District of California sided with six former San Francisco Bay Area Regional Transit (BART) workers who had refused to get the vaccine for religious purposes.

    BART was ordered to pay the group more than $7.8 million, with each individual receiving between $1.2 million and $1.5 million, the Pacific Justice Institute, which represented the transit workers in the trial, said in a statement on Oct. 24. The institute, a law firm representing the six former employees since 2022, said the eight-person jury deliberated for two days this week before returning the verdict that awarded the employees the compensation.

    About a week ago, the federal jury also determined that BART had failed to prove that it suffered an undue hardship by denying accommodations to the ex-employees in the case.

    On Oct. 23, the jury further found that the six employees met the burden of showing that there was a conflict between their religious beliefs and the BART vaccine mandate, which was implemented in 2021.

    According to the law firm, the jury also agreed with the figures that the plaintiffs had provided for lost wages that they had suffered after losing their jobs. The jury then added $1 million each to those figures, the firm said, describing the verdict as a “legal earthquake.”

    “The rail employees chose to lose their livelihood rather than deny their faith. That in itself shows the sincerity and depth of their convictions,“ Kevin Snider, the Pacific Justice Institute’s chief counsel, who served as lead trial attorney, said. ”After nearly three years of struggle, these essential workers feel they were heard and understood by the jury and are overjoyed and relieved by the verdict.”

    The law firm stated: “During the trial, jurors heard compelling testimony from dedicated employees. One of the plaintiffs had worked for more than 30 years for BART, with a stretch of 10 years perfect attendance, before being unceremoniously dismissed. Another had been out on workers comp for months, with no scheduled return date, when she was fired.”

    Lawyers for BART argued that multiple employees who had conflicts with receiving the vaccine had secular—rather than religious—reasons. But the jury disagreed with those arguments, the Pacific Justice Institute said.

    The vaccine mandate was approved by BART’s board of directors in October 2021 and stipulated that all employees must get the COVID-19 vaccine. It allowed some employees to be exempt from the vaccine, including for religious reasons.

    A year later, BART employees filed a class-action lawsuit accusing the operator of denying religious accommodations that violated state law.

    U.S. District Judge William Alsup, who presided over the lawsuit against BART, ruled that the operator’s policies did not violate the employees’ right to religious freedom, according to an order he issued in March.

    A separate order issued by Alsup in January found that BART received 188 requests for a religious exemption and accommodation, and of that figure, 40 chose not to complete the process. They were either terminated from employment or ultimately got the vaccine.

    “Plaintiffs’ putative class fails because its members have little in common beyond their request for religious accommodation,” the judge further said in his order. “They do not share a common religious objection. They do not share a vocation or a set of contractual rights. They do not present a similar set of potential accommodations and associated burdens. They do not present similar health and exposure concerns.

    “Potential accommodations do not impact the same pool of coworkers. Those coworkers do not have the same bargained-for rights.”

    The Epoch Times contacted BART for comment on Oct. 25 but received no reply by publication time. The rail operator’s spokesman, James Allison, told local news outlet SFGate that it had “no comment” on the verdict.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 22:10

  • NYC Mayor Says Trump Not A Fascist, Urges Politicians To 'Dial Down The Temperature'
    NYC Mayor Says Trump Not A Fascist, Urges Politicians To ‘Dial Down The Temperature’

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    New York City Mayor Eric Adams rebuffed recent claims that former President Donald Trump is a fascist and said that Trump’s Madison Square Garden event should go ahead.

    “I have heard those terms hurled at me by some political leaders in the city, using terms like [Nazi leader Adolph] Hitler and fascist,” the Democratic mayor said at a news conference in New York City on Saturday.

    New York City Mayor Eric Adams speaks during a news conference in New York City on April 5, 2024. Brittainy Newman/AP Photo

    “I know what Hitler has done, and I know what a fascist regime looks like. I think, as I have called for over and over again, that the level of conversation, I think we can all dial down the temperature,” Adams said at the conference in which he also detailed a significant police presence planned for Trump’s event at Madison Square Garden in Manhattan Sunday.

    He made the comment after Vice President Kamala Harris and her surrogates criticized Trump in recent days after his former chief of staff John Kelly accused him of praising Adolf Hitler and the Nazi Germany dictator’s generals while he was in office. Trump has refuted Kelly’s comments.

    Referring to the claims, Harris told voters Wednesday at a CNN town hall that “I invite you to listen and go online to listen to John Kelly” make the allegations against the 45th president. “This is a serious, serious issue. And we know who he is. He admires dictators,” Harris said.

    Kelly told the New York Times and the Atlantic that the former president wanted generals like Hitler had.

    “He commented more than once that, ‘You know, Hitler did some good things, too,’” Kelly told the New York Times.

    Kelly’s comment was not publicly corroborated by other former Trump White House officials and was refuted by Trump in the past week.

    During a media event, Trump told reporters that he never said positive things about Hitler during his time in the Oval Office, saying that he “would never say that” and criticized The Atlantic and its reporting.

    Former Vice President Mike Pence’s former chief of staff Mike Ayers has also rebutted the claims.

    “I’ve avoided commenting on intra-staff leaks or rumors or even lies as it relates to my time at the White House but General Kelly’s comments regarding President Trump are too egregious to ignore,” Ayers posted on X. “I was with each of them more than most, and his commentary is *patently false.*”

    After Harris’s statement, Trump’s campaign spokesman Steven Cheung accused the Democratic candidate of spreading “outright lies and falsehoods.”

    Adams, who is currently facing federal bribery charges, said Saturday that he disagrees with the notion that Trump’s rally should be scrapped over Kelly’s comments.

    “This is America. This is New York, and I think it’s important that we allow individuals to exercise their right to get their message clear to New Yorkers,” the mayor said. “And our job as a city and as a Police Department is to make sure they can do that … in a peaceful way.”

    Adams’s comments about lowering “the temperature” also appeared to echo a comment made by President Joe Biden earlier this year in the immediate aftermath of the first assassination attempt against Trump in Pennsylvania. At the time, Biden called on Americans to “cool it down” after the shooting, in which a bullet clipped Trump’s ear.

    Trump became the subject of a second assassination attempt in mid-September after the Secret Service engaged with an individual who was pointing a rifle through a perimeter fence while the former president was golfing in Florida.

    In mid-October, Trump spoke at the Al Smith charity dinner in New York and made reference to the federal charges Adams is facing, as well as those he is facing. “They’ve gone after me, Mr. Mayor, and you’re peanuts compared to what they’ve done to me,” he said on Oct. 18. “And you’re going to be OK.”

    The Associated Press contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 21:00

  • How Much Do G7 And BRICS Countries Rely On The Taiwan Strait?
    How Much Do G7 And BRICS Countries Rely On The Taiwan Strait?

    With China continuing to conduct military drills near Taiwan, as well as recently reaffirming that use of force will always remain an option to bring Taiwan under its control, concerns have grown over how potential Chinese actions in the region could impact global trade through the Taiwan Strait.

    This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, visualizes the share of exports and imports that move through the Taiwan Strait, broken down by the G7 and BRICS countries.

    The data comes from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and is updated as of October 2024.

    Which Countries are Most Reliant on the Taiwan Strait?

    Below, we show the share of exports and imports that transit through the Taiwan Strait by both G7 and BRICS countries.

    BRICS countries overall are more exposed to disruptions to trade routes in the Taiwan Strait, specifically China, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran. The latter two have 24% or more of its exports pass through the strait.

    China and Japan are the most reliant on the Taiwan Strait for both imports and exports, specifically imports. Almost a third of both countries’ imports pass through the Taiwan Strait.

    According to CSIS, over 95% of Japan’s crude oil comes from a select group of Middle Eastern countries, much of which is transported through the Taiwan Strait, making this route integral to Japan’s energy security.

    As for China, while CSIS estimates that 15% of its exports pass through this waterway—a relatively lower share than other countries—the total value of these exports is still over $551 billion.

    The Taiwan Strait is not only essential for China’s international trade but also plays a key role in its domestic commerce. More than half of the voyages through the strait connect the numerous ports along China’s eastern seaboard, according to CSIS.

    Aside from Japan, G7 countries generally have much lower reliance on the Taiwan Strait. The U.S., UK, Canada, Italy, Germany, and France each have single-digit percentages for imports and exports through the strait.

    The Taiwan Strait has been the site of multiple major crises between China and Taiwan since the 1950s, many of which involved military confrontations such as artillery bombardments, missile tests, and naval deployments.

    To learn more about how G7 and BRICS stack up agains eachother in other areas, check out this graphic that compares G7 and BRICS countries by GDP.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 20:25

  • Watch: Megan Kelly Crushes Bill Maher's "Trump Is Hitler" Insanity
    Watch: Megan Kelly Crushes Bill Maher’s “Trump Is Hitler” Insanity

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    Sirius XM host Megan Kelly Absolutely crushed Bill Maher’s tired assertion that Donald Trump is a fascist, prompting him to immediately try to change the subject and then end the interview on his HBO show.

    Maher said of Trump, “the things that he’s been saying, and all the people in his administration who’ve said he’s a fascist, he wants to be fascist, his friends are all dictators.”

    Kelly told Maher she doesn’t care about any of that “Because they’ve been saying that about Trump for years, they’ve been saying that about Republican candidates for years. It has a long, storied history. If you are at all center or center-right, you are used to having your candidate of choice completely demonized, whether it’s the f-word, the r-word, the misogynist word.”

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    She continued, “They tried to tell us Mitt Romney was a raging sexist because of binders full of women. They tried to tell us John McCain was a raging racist, notwithstanding the fact that he adopted a daughter from Bangladesh. They’ve been doing this for every Republican, and they get to Trump, and we are no longer listening to them.”

    “Trump has incendiary rhetoric, there’s no question, but we have four years to judge him by, and the country was going pretty well, unlike the four we’ve had with these two,” Kelly urged, referring to Harris and Biden.

    When Maher then attempted to argue that Trump inherited a good economy from Obama, Kelly responded “So, walk me through it. So Trump has Obama to thank for his economy, but Biden can’t thank Trump for anything?”

    “Okay, let’s get off this,” Maher responded, before going back to calling Trump a fascist and literally Hitler.

    “I see; he hid his Hitlerism the first four years and is going to come out in full force the second four years,” Kelly told Maher, highlighting how stupid the assertion is.

    Kelly then urged that Kamala Harris and Joe Biden are the ones acting like fascists, running through their weaponisation of the Justice Department against Trump and the fact they they have ignored Supreme Court rulings.

    Maher then quickly ended the interview.

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    Earlier in the interview, Maher also managed to lose an argument about Democrats denying election results for a second time to Kelly.

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    Kelly also hit Maher’s lefty audience with some other horrific facts they didn’t want to hear about what is being done to children in the name of ‘inclusion’.

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    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 19:50

  • One Dead, 35 Injured In Suspected Terror Truck-Ramming Near Mossad Headquarters
    One Dead, 35 Injured In Suspected Terror Truck-Ramming Near Mossad Headquarters

    An area north of Tel Aviv was scene of a Sunday morning incident being dubbed in Israeli media a “terror truck-ramming attack” at a bus stop, which left one person dead and at least 32 wounded. Subsequent reports said that 35 were injured, with five in serious condition.

    The perpetrator and only deceased has been identified as Rami Nasrallah, an Arab Israeli driver who lives in Qalansawe, in central Israel. However, there remains some ambiguity over whether it was an intentional ‘terror attack’ or possibly the result of a horrific accident.

    Emergency responders at the scene after a driver apparently rammed his truck into a crowd of people at a bus stop in Ramat Hasharon, AFP.

    The event is still under investigation, with the Times of Israel reporting of the deceased bus driver that “His body was sent to the Abu Kabir Forensic Institute for an autopsy to check if he suffered a medical condition that caused the accident.”

    Suspicion has widely fall on the intentional attack theory, given it happened just outside the well-known Glilot military base in central Israel, and in a location near the Mossad headquarters and several IDF intelligence units.

    Additionally, police said that that the suspect was “shot and neutralized” at the scene, while still not saying necessarily that it was an attack.

    A lot of the injured were senior citizens who had just stepped off a bus at the moment the bus was rammed. They were planning to attend a museum exhibit memorializing the fallen of the Oct.7 Hamas terror attack.

    While not directly taking responsibility for the apparent terror incident, Hamas praised the “heroic ramming attack” that was carried out near “Mossad headquarters.”

    The group described that it was “a natural response to the crimes of the Zionist occupation against our Palestinian people in Gaza, the West Bank and Jerusalem, and its ongoing brutal massacres, especially in the northern Gaza Strip.”

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    “Photos and videos on social media showed several people pinned down under the truck as medics and rescuers tried to help,” Al Jazeera has described of the gruesome scene. Police cordoned off the area and a security helicopter hovered above.

    A number of the injured were witnessed lying on a sidewalk near the truck. One source said that armed civilians may have shot the driver as it was clear he was about to ram people. Another eyewitness saw eight people “trapped under the truck.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 19:15

  • Watch: Trump And Rogan Have A Wild Interview
    Watch: Trump And Rogan Have A Wild Interview

    Former President Donald Trump appeared on the Joe Rogan podcast Friday, where they discussed a wide range of topics for three hours.

    Watch:

    Highlights:

    Getting rid of income taxes:

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    Hoaxes perpetrated against Trump:

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    Why Democrats are in favor of illegal immigration:

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    Trump on bad White House hires:

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    Keeping Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas in check:

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    The two discussed the horrible condition California is in thanks to Gov. Gavin Newsom:

    Trump on getting shot:

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    Trump on Musk:

    “Surreal” – On what it was like when Trump won the 1st time:

    “I want to be a whale psychiatrist” – Offshore windmills and how they affect whales:

    “You’ve said a lot of wild shit!” – Why Trump became so popular:

    Trump on Barron:

    “Big pharma wasn’t thrilled” – Trump on pressure not to work with RFK Jr.:

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 18:11

  • Dramatic Video Shows Assassination Attempt On Bolivia's Ex-President Morales
    Dramatic Video Shows Assassination Attempt On Bolivia’s Ex-President Morales

    At a moment the South American country of Bolivia is already on edge due to rising inflation and shrinking gas production, ex-president Evo Morales said his car was shot at on Sunday.

    He and officials close to him say a pair of vehicles forced his to stop in the middle of a freeway, and that’s when heavily armed unidentified gunmen fired on his car, with a bullet reportedly passing “centimeters” from his head. There are reports saying that Morales’ driver was wounded.

    Current president Luis Arce has recently accused Morales and his supporters of “destabilizing” the country amid weeks of roadblocks, which have resulted in supply chain problems which have impacted grocery stores and gas stations.

    Morales has been facing what he says is a politically motivated investigation by a government prosecutor, concocted by his enemies, especially the Arce administration.

    The former president is accused of statutory rape and human trafficking, which he calls sham charges. He led Bolivia from 2006 to 2019 and was the country’s first indigenous president.

    Supporters of the rival political parties in Bolivia have recently engaged in street clashes, with at times entire city areas shut down and key roads blocked amid the mayhem.

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    Morales’ team is claiming this new incident was a planned assassination attempt. The Morales-aligned bloc of the divided MAS party claimed the following:

    “This is not an isolated incident. It’s clear evidence that we are facing a fascist government that does not hesitate to attack the life of former President Evo Morales.”

    And according to more related by the Associated Press:

    The statement said that two vehicles with heavily armed men dressed in black ambushed Morales’ convoy. Bullets whizzed just “centimeters” from the ex-president’s head, it said. Video posted on the website of Morales’ radio station showed helicopters buzzing over an airstrip where the incident occurred.

    President Arce’s statement in the aftermath appeared to confirm this as a serious and credible incident.

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    “The exercise of any violent practice in politics must be condemned and clarified,” Arce wrote on X. “Problems are not resolved by trying to kill people or by partisan speculation.”

    As video of the assassination attempt spreads, authorities fear new unrest could be unleashed…

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    However, other key government ministers suggested it may have been a false flag orchestrated by Morales and that he was never truly in danger.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 18:05

  • Martin Armstrong Sees Trump "Landslide"; Fears Desperate Deep State Wants War & Martial Law
    Martin Armstrong Sees Trump “Landslide”; Fears Desperate Deep State Wants War & Martial Law

    Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

    Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong says we are getting down to the wire with the 2024 Election, and the Deep State Dems are in panic mode. 

    Could we have a false flag, martial law, debt crisis, default, war or all of the above? 

    Armstrong says,

    “They want war.  There is no question about that… Lindsey Graham was on Face the Nation a couple of months ago, and he slipped and told the truth for once. 

    I was shocked that he actually slipped and told the truth for once.  He said there was a $10 trillion to $12 trillion natural gas asset under Crimea, and we can’t allow Russia and China to get that…

    This is like Iraq.  We are going after the oil.”

    On martial law, Armstrong says, “I am very concerned about martial law…”

    “They (Supreme Court) have kind of hinted that martial law is a common law type thing.  When the courts are closed, then you have martial law.  It is justified under ‘necessity.’  This is what the Supreme Court has said.  So, I am very concerned that these neocons are so desperate that they are definitely going to try to create some sort of a false flag or anything they can do perhaps the last week in October going into the election.”

    On the war front, we just had Israel bomb Iran, and NATO is still poking Russia.  Armstrong says,

    “NATO is a retirement home for neocons.  It should have been shut down.  They are trying to take the world into World War III. 

    They are now raising a $100 billion so they can continue the war against Russia in case Trump is elected.”

    Armstrong is still seeing Trump winning in 2024 in a “landslide.”  Kamala Harris is going the other way.  A few months back, Armstrong said Kamala’s real approval rating was 10.5%.  Armstrong says he just ran new Kamala Harris approval ratings with his Socrates computer program. 

    Armstrong says, “It’s actually down to 6.5% to 7.5%.  It’s really appalling.”

    Armstrong says Kamala has “negative coattails,” which will spell big losses for Democrats down ballot in November.

    On the economy, Armstrong says,

    “We are in this debt Ponzi scheme where they issue new debt every year to pay off the old debt.  People say the debt is $34 trillion, but the level of the debt does not matter.  It could be a quadrillion dollars…

    China holds 10% of America’s debt.  They sold $53 billion at the beginning of the year.  This is where the danger comes.  If you don’t have someone to take up what China is not buying, guess what?  You can’t pay, and when you can’t pay, that’s when a default comes.  This is why they want war . . . so they can default on everything…

    They take us to war, and there goes Social Security and everything else.”

    On the 2024 Election, Armstrong says,

    “The 2024 Election will be the last election. . . . The US will break up into three or four sections. . . .

    We are committing suicide. . . . This is how governments die. . . .

    Gold goes up when people lose confidence in government.  This is why central banks want gold. 

    They are afraid of governments defaulting on their debt in war…

    In the war, we lose it next time.  They want terrorism so they can lock us down.  This is the future we face.”

    There is much more in the 1-hour and 3-minute interview.

    Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong as he gives his analysis on martial law, debt default and world war for 10.26.24.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 17:30

  • The Vampire Fiat Money System: How It Works and What It Means for Your Wealth
    The Vampire Fiat Money System: How It Works and What It Means for Your Wealth

    Authored by Thorsten Polleit via The Epoch Times,

    Who doesn’t know them: the blood-sucking vampires, the eerie undead, immortalized in countless films, and inspired primarily by Bram Stoker’s novel “Dracula” (1897). Just think of iconic movies like the silent film “Nosferatu—A Symphony of Horror” (1922), “Dracula” (1958) with Christopher Lee, Roman Polanski’s parody “The Fearless Vampire Killers” (1967), or “Nosferatu—Phantom of the Night” (1979), starring Klaus Kinski as Count Dracula.

    Vampires are demons who rise from their graves at night, seeking to drain the blood of innocent victims. Not only do they steal the life force that sustains them, but they also spread their curse. Many victims, bitten by vampires, are “turned,” becoming undead themselves, thus joining the vampire’s dark domain.

    The enemies and hunters of vampires face a formidable challenge: vampires can disguise themselves, transforming into creatures like wolves or bats, and often display immense, superhuman strength. They can only be repelled by traditional defenses—garlic cloves, rosaries, holy water, or the Christian cross. But truly destroying a vampire requires decapitation, driving a wooden stake through its heart, or bright sunlight that turns them to dust.

    The vampire is an ancient and widespread myth. The image of a blood-sucking undead creature, or similar concepts, has existed across many cultures. This demon embodies superstition—acting as a projection of primal fears, the inexplicable, and evil as the counterpart to good. The notion of a creature that emerges at night, drains its victims’ blood, and draws them from light into darkness is undoubtedly a profoundly threatening one.

    When you reflect a little longer on the horror story of the vampire demon, you will inevitably begin to see parallels (or at least points of contact) with the fiat money system that exists worldwide today.

    Under Cover of Darkness

    It takes place under the cover of darkness: It is fair to say that the vast majority of people are unaware of how today’s fiat money system is structured, how it operates, or what its effects are. Students in schools and universities are, for the most part, left in the dark about it, and the consequences of the fiat money system, therefore, take most people by surprise—unprepared and relentless. Indeed, how many people know that our current fiat money system is a system in which the state’s central bank holds a coercive monopoly on the creation of fiat central bank money, while commercial banks issue their own fiat commercial bank money based on central bank fiat money.

    Who knows that fiat money is literally created out of thin air, representing a form of money creation that has no connection whatsoever to “real savings”? And who explains to people that, from an economic perspective, expanding the fiat money supply is inflationary, leading to uneven higher prices for goods and services compared to a situation where the money supply had not been increased? It is also unknown to many that the issuance of fiat money via the credit market causes a misallocation of capital, initially triggering a boom, only to be followed by a bust; that it drives economies into excessive debt; and that it allows the state to grow ever larger at the expense of the freedoms of citizens and entrepreneurs.

    In short, for most people, the damage caused by fiat money is unknown; it creeps upon them under the cover of darkness, like a vampire.

    Vulnerable Victims and Life Sucked Away

    The victims are often helpless and unaware, with the fruits of their labor effectively being siphoned away. Fiat money has something vampire-like about it, enabling one group (those allowed to create fiat money) to live at the expense of others (those forced to use the monopolized money). The first recipients of newly-created fiat money are the beneficiaries. They can use the new money to purchase goods and services whose prices have not yet risen, making them wealthier.

    As the money changes hands, it increases demand, and prices of goods rise accordingly. As a result, the late recipients of the new money can only buy goods at higher prices, leaving them at a disadvantage. The first recipients improve their position at the expense of the late recipients. The most severely affected are those who receive nothing from the newly-created money supply—they are, in effect, the ones “sucked dry.”

    The vampire-like redistributive effect of fiat money, which operates in the shadows, particularly benefits commercial banks that create fiat commercial bank money, as well as those in a position to take out new bank loans in fiat money.

    First and foremost, it is the state and those who benefit from it who are among the biggest winners of the vampire fiat money system. The state finances a significant portion of its expenditure with newly-created fiat money, using it to pay its representatives, employees, and their pensions, as well as the companies from which it purchases goods and services. The state and its beneficiaries are among the early recipients of the newly-created fiat money, making them the primary beneficiaries at the expense of the many who are not closely connected to the state.

    One might argue that a redistribution of income and wealth, brought about by the increase in fiat money, would also occur in a commodity or precious metal money system. This is true in principle, but the increase in, say, a gold money system, would be less pronounced than in a fiat money system. The fact is that the latter was deliberately chosen for its vampire-like nature. It benefits the state, banks, and big business at the expense of the general population, keeping them below their economic potential.

    Creating Minions

    Like a vampire, fiat money infects its victims, turning them into accomplices of the fiat money system. Fiat money quite literally enslaves its users, making them dependent. For instance, fiat money incentivises firms and private households to incur debt and live beyond their means, made possible through artificially low interest rates. People are also encouraged to invest in assets (such as houses and companies) because the chronic inflationary nature of fiat money ensures a continual rise in asset prices. Once people are lured into exposure to fiat money, their economic and financial well-being becomes dependent on the continuation of the inflationary fiat money system and on it being “rescued” by the state and its central bank during times of crisis—even at the expense of those who do not benefit from the system, or benefit much less.

    Politicians, bureaucrats, bank employees, and companies that receive government contracts all develop a vested interest in ensuring that the fiat money system is maintained. In this sense, they become fiat money vampire thralls, feeding off the lifeblood of those engaged in productive work by claiming a share of their income.

    Moreover, holders of fiat money are the ones who lose out, as fiat money continually loses its purchasing power. In a fiat money system, the central bank ensures that interest rates are kept artificially low—often negative after accounting for inflation—so that savings in time deposits, savings accounts, and bonds are effectively eroded.

    Aversion to Light

    The vampire and the fiat money system cannot withstand the bright light of day; both will crumble to dust when exposed to sunlight. If people truly understood the negative effects of fiat money and the damage it causes to the world, they would likely reject it—along with the production and employment structures it creates. This is likely why so little is taught about fiat money in schools and universities. Its darker aspects are concealed, with the statist education system as particeps criminis ensuring the bright light of knowledge does not shine on the fiat money system.

    Remember that central bank councils are typically referred to as “the guardians of the currency,” and it is said that they “fight” inflation. Nothing could be further from the truth—much like a vampire who welcomes his guests and engages in witty conversation without revealing his true nature. Just as sunlight kills a vampire, sound economic knowledge would destroy the fiat money system, especially when coupled with a simple, well-understood ethic like “do unto others as you would have them do unto you.”

    Until that day comes, investors should be aware of the serious economic and ethical flaws of fiat money. The uncomfortable truth is that long-term prosperity and peace cannot be sustained under a fiat money system. Therefore, it is in everyone’s best interest for the bright light of truth to expose and thus end the fiat money system. But how can this be achieved?

    By proactively and honestly informing people about the evils of fiat money; by advising them to reduce their dependence on it, both in their lives and their savings; and by promoting a free market for money, while encouraging technological innovations in the monetary sphere that lie beyond the state’s control. Together, these efforts will act like a ray of sunlight striking the vampire-like fiat money system—ultimately causing it to crumble to dust.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 16:20

  • Seeking Middle East Peace, Michigan Muslim Leaders Endorse Trump At Saturday Rally
    Seeking Middle East Peace, Michigan Muslim Leaders Endorse Trump At Saturday Rally

    In the latest vivid demonstration that once-durable Democratic constituencies are being completely shattered in 2024, former President Donald Trump on Saturday welcomed Michigan Muslim leaders onto a stage and heartily accepted their endorsements. “I’m thrilled to accept the endorsement of these highly respected leaders,” Trump told the crowd in Novi, a Detroit suburb.

    The principal motivator of the endorsements appears to be outrage over the Biden-Harris administration’s support of Israel’s long, astoundingly destructive war on Gaza — and a belief that even ardent Israel-backer Trump would be far more likely to bring the carnage to an end. Imam Belal Alzuhairi took to the stage in the Detroit suburb of Novi to voice that very sentiment: 

    “We, as Muslims, stand with President Trump because he promises peace, not war! We are supporting Donald Trump because he promised to end war in the Middle East and Ukraine. The bloodshed has to stop all over the world, and I think this man can make that happen. I personally believe that God saved his life twice for a reason.”

    Alzuhairi also commended Trump’s commitment to protect children from school curricula that undermine family values, and to creating a strong border and stopping illegal immigration: 

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    Dearborn Heights mayor Bill Bazzi likewise embraced Trump as potential peacemaker, telling the crowd, “We’re going to stop the wars, we’re going to make the United States safe again, and we’re going to make the world safe.” Amer Ghalib, Muslim mayor of Detroit suburb Hamtramck, endorsed Trump on Oct. 20. Liberals celebrated when Hamtramck elected a majority-Muslim city council in 2015, and then Ghalib as its first Muslim Mayor in 2021, but they recoiled and even felt betrayed when the council barred LGBTQ Pride flags from city flagpoles last year.  

    As is the case with seemingly every other issue, Kamala Harris has chosen not to stake out a position on the Israel-Gaza war that’s even modestly different from that of the Biden administration — such as merely putting conditions on the billions of US dollars shoveled into the country. Here she is lamely dodging the issue in her train wreck of a town hall performance in Philadelphia on Wednesday night: 

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    That approach could well cost Harris Michigan’s 15 electoral votes and the 2024 election, as Michigan has one of the largest Muslim populations in America. The issue could also be decisive in states with lesser Muslim populations but tightly-contested races. An Arab News/YouGov poll released last week found that Trump is narrowly winning the Arab-American vote, 45% to 43%. In 2020, 86% of Muslims voted for Biden, with just 6% backing Trump.

    As if her refusal to take a different approach to Israel weren’t doing enough damage with Muslims, Harris has put herself in an even deeper hole by embracing the endorsements of arch-Middle-East-interventionist Dick Cheney and his daughter, former Rep. Liz Cheney — and even toting Liz along for multiple appearances in Michigan. By some estimates, upwards of one million people have died as a result of the Dick Cheney-orchestrated invasion of Iraq on false premises. 

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    Sharing a view that’s no doubt widely held among Michigan Muslims, Hamtramck Mayor Ghalib told reporters last week: 

    “It was surprising for us as Arab Americans to have Kamala Harris bringing someone whose family name always reminds us of war crimes in the Middle East….To bring this person to our backyard, to remind us all of the tragedies that happened in the Middle East, is something that tells us that there would be more wars coming if Kamala Harris is elected.”

    A cheerful embrace of warmonger Liz Cheney has helped crush Muslim support of Kamala Harris (AP/Mark Schiefelbein via WLNS)

    While it’s certainly not universal, the substantial Muslim embrace of Trump is particularly remarkable given Trump’s demonstrated devotion to the State of Israel and relentless pandering to its backers inside the United States. 

    Trump’s political campaigns have been fueled by enormous donations from the late Sheldon and still-living Miriam Adelson, a billionaire couple whose foremost policy concern has been ensuring steady financial, military and political support for the State of Israel, and aligning Washington with the agenda of Israel’s right wing. The Adelsons have been closely allied with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, even publishing a free Israeli newspaper that boosts Netanyahu and his Likud party. 

    The couple donated a jaw-dropping $90 million to Trump’s 2020 campaign, rewarding him for his Israel-catering policies, including relocating the US embassy from Tel Aviv to contested Jerusalem, exiting the Iran nuclear deal and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which Israel captured in 1967’s Six-Day War. Trump also awarded Miriam Adelson the Presidential Medal of Freedom. In the 2024 race, Miriam Adelson has donated another $100 million to a PAC that works to elect Trump.  

    The remarkable fracturing of Muslim support of the Democratic Party comes alongside similar erosion of other once-reliable cornerstones of the Democratic electorate, including blacks, Hispanics, union members and young voters. Can this race really be as tight as “experts” tell us? 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 15:45

  • CNN Data Analyst Admits Trump On Course To Win Popular Vote
    CNN Data Analyst Admits Trump On Course To Win Popular Vote

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    CNN’s data analyst Harry Enten suggested Friday that Donald Trump could be on course to win the popular vote on November 5th.

    That hasn’t happened for a Republican candidate for 20 years.

    If it happens, Trump will almost certainly win the electoral college and the election.

    Enten noted that a New York Times/Siena College poll was released last week showing Trump tied with Kamala Harris at 48% in the national popular vote.

    “Everyone has been talking about this idea that Trump may win in the Electoral College, but Kamala Harris may win the popular vote, but Trump may finally get his great white whale,” Enten stated.

    He added that Wall Street Journal and CNBC polls also have Trump ahead of Harris in the popular vote.

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    “Part of my job is to warn our viewers, on either side of the aisle, of an event that may occur, that they don’t necessarily like, and Donald Trump winning the popular vote could ABSOLUTELY happen,” Enten urged.

    He added “You might as well wrap your minds around it now folks if you don’t like Donald Trump,” noting that Democrat supporters heads are currently “exploding.”

    The RCP average has Trump in the lead for the popular vote for the first time in his political career by two points.

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    If he did it, Trump would only be the second Republican in 36 years to win the popular vote.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 15:10

  • LGBT Activists Meet With Pope, Urge Him To End Vatican Opposition To Trans Ideology
    LGBT Activists Meet With Pope, Urge Him To End Vatican Opposition To Trans Ideology

    LGBT activists have a strange obsession with religious acceptance, specifically from the Catholic Church.  Rational minds would argue that if a group is diametrically opposed to your lifestyle then you would avoid associating with that group.  Why clamor for their attention?  

    In the early days of the gay rights movement the attitude of proponents was essentially that they would go their own way – All they wanted was for religious taboos to no longer be codified into law and used to regulate their lives.  It sounds fair enough, but the problem with the political left is their underlying agenda of incrementalism and their unhealthy tendencies toward moral relativism.

    In other words, give them an inch and leftists will steal a mile.  They see compromise as an invitation to dominate.  Giving concessions to a leftist is the same as inviting a vampire into your house; do it once and they’ll keep coming back to feed whenever they please.

    The gay rights issue is a perfect example of this ugly habit.  In the 1990s the community was widely accepted in the west, the only right they didn’t enjoy was to have their marriages recognized nationally.  They claimed that once that right was achieved they would ask nothing more of the Christian community or the church.  And of course, that was a lie.  

    Today, gay and trans rights groups demand that all church denominations accept trans ideology and trans membership.  This includes gay and trans church leaders that teach “tolerance”, mixing activist mantras into religious lessons and supporting “trans visibility”.  Going their separate ways is not enough and lack of association is unacceptable.  Leftists require that their beliefs be adopted by everyone everywhere. 

    The Vatican under Pope Francis has been surprisingly reticent to welcome the trans movement into the fold, despite Francis being a devout globalist on more than a few hot button issues. Earlier this year the Pope called gender ideology the ‘worst danger today’, noting:

    ‘I would like to emphasize one thing: It is very important that we have this meeting, this meeting between men and women, because today the worst danger is gender ideology, which erases differences.’

    In response, LGBT activist groups are increasing their focus on pressuring the Vatican to change their public position.  Trans representatives met with the Pope this month in an 80 minute private discussion.  The group included a Catholic sister who works with LGBTQ people, a member of the transgender community, and a U.S. medical doctor who helps run a clinic providing gender-affirming hormonal care for adults.

    “I really wanted to share with Pope Francis about the joy that I have being a transgender Catholic person,” Michael Sennett, who took part in the meeting, told Reuters.

    Sennett, a transgender man (a biological woman) from Boston, said she told the pontiff about “the joy that I get from hormone replacement therapy and the surgeries that I’ve had that make me feel comfortable in my body.”  The group say they specifically urged the Pope to reconsider his opposition to gender affirming care (sex change hormones and surgeries).

    It’s not know exactly what was said during the event, but activists that met with the Pope claim he expressed an interest in appointing bishops in the US that are ‘more open’ to transgender Catholics.  Considering the idea is a violation of multiple Biblical ideals and doctrines, it’s hard to say how this would be possible. 

    As mentioned, this scenario sounds once again like the incrementalism of the progressive left.  It starts with compromises on LGBT membership, then trans ideology makes its way into the church, then it takes over the church and you end up with this disturbing result:

    Activists claim they just want to worship like other Christians do, but that’s not the trend we see in the western world.  The argument being promoted is that Christianity must “adapt to the times” and that Biblical beliefs must “evolve.”  It’s the typical futurist method of removing opposing systems that act as obstacles to their control.  The notion is that everything new is better and everything old should be abandoned.  It’s the Marxist view of religion, which does not compromise. 

    Even for those that are not religiously inclined the end game should be obvious – The inevitable erasure of Christianity.  The push for Trans affirmation by the Vatican is likely an attempt to destroy conservative ideological opposition from within while installing a new kind of religion in Christianity’s place.            

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 14:35

  • Russia's Landmark BRICS Summit And The Specter Of De-Dollarization
    Russia’s Landmark BRICS Summit And The Specter Of De-Dollarization

    Authored by Adam Morrow via The Epoch Times,

    This week saw a landmark summit of the BRICS group of nations, a nine-country economic bloc led by Moscow and Beijing, which drew representatives from 36 countries, including 22 heads of state.

    Held from Oct. 22 to 24 in the Russian city of Kazan, the event focused largely on “de-dollarization”—the idea of phasing out the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency and preferred medium of global exchange.

    “We do not reject … the dollar,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the summit. “But if we are prevented from working with it, what do we have to do? We have to search for alternatives. And this is what is happening.”

    Most Western experts, however, dismiss the idea of de-dollarization as unrealistic, if not downright impossible given the greenback’s longstanding position as the world’s standard currency for commercial transactions.

    “To build an alternative financial clearing system to accommodate transactions in rubles or yuan may be possible for BRICS members—but it’s a long shot,” Ariel Cohen, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank devoted to international affairs, told The Epoch Times.

    Ambassador Matthew Bryza, a former White House and senior State Department official, agreed.

    Bryza told The Epoch Times that the notion of de-dollarization—as espoused by Moscow and Beijing—had “no prospects for moving forward as a result of the BRICS.”

    “It’s possible the United States will overuse sanctions and leave a critical mass of countries, eventually, to want to de-dollarize the economy,” he said.

    “But whether or not to use the dollar—for now—is driven by the financial utility that most of the world sees in using the dollar,” added Bryza, who sits on the board of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation.

    Others, however, take a different view.

    “The aim of BRICS isn’t to replace the dollar as a global currency,” Mamdouh Salameh, a UK-based global energy expert, told The Epoch Times.

    Rather, he said, it is to “create their own financial system based on a common currency for conducting transactions among themselves, thus avoiding the adverse impact of the dollar on their economies, trade, and finances.”

    According to Salameh, a former visiting professor of energy economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London, BRICS members believe the dollar “could be headed for a major devaluation—if not collapse—due to a rising national debt that reached almost $37 trillion in 2024.”

    Cohen dismissed these fears, saying the dollar’s leading position is rooted in the strength of the U.S. economy—and U.S. military power.

    “As long as the United States plays a global economic and financial role, supported by military power, people shouldn’t worry about the dollar,” he said.

    “If, however, with the continuation of the national debt increase, or military weakness, then all bets are off—especially if the United States starts to disengage from its global role,” Cohen added.

    BRICS was founded in 2006 by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, with South Africa joining in 2010. This year, Iran, Egypt, and Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates also joined the expanding club. Saudi Arabia has been invited to join, but is not currently a member.

    As it currently stands, the nine-member bloc is said to account for between 40 and 45 percent of the world’s population and roughly one third of the global economy.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech during a BRICS business forum in Moscow on Oct, 18, 2024. Mikhail Metzel/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

    ‘Weaponizing’ the Dollar

    Under the Bretton Woods system, the U.S. dollar became the world’s go-to medium for commercial exchange in the aftermath of the Second World War.

    BRICS seeks to challenge the dollar’s leading position by reducing its use in financial transactions in favor of the national currencies of its member-states.

    Speaking at the summit, Putin said that some 95 percent of all trade between Russia and China is now transacted in rubles and Chinese yuan.

    Addressing participants on Oct. 24, he said that the Bretton Woods system had served to ensure the dollar’s supremacy in the post-war global order.

    “At that time, the stability of the dollar was ensured … by its linkage to gold,” he said, adding that this linkage was broken in the 1970s, when the dollar was taken off the gold standard.

    “Now, the only guarantee of the stability of this world currency [i.e., the dollar] is the stability of one economy: the U.S. economy,” Putin said.

    Some BRICS members view de-dollarization as a means of protecting themselves from U.S.-led sanctions, which have discomfited Russia for the past 10 years.

    A joint declaration issued in Kazan decried the “disruptive effect of unlawful unilateral coercive measures, including illegal sanctions, on the world economy [and] international trade.”

    Addressing the summit on Oct. 23, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, whose country has long been the target of U.S. sanctions, accused the United States of “using the dollar as a weapon … to control other nations.”

    But according to Bryza, just how de-dollarization would insulate BRICS states from possible sanctions would “depend on how many countries join the ‘de-dollarized’ currency union.”

    “It doesn’t matter if Russia and other BRICS countries come up with a way to conduct their trade based on something other than the dollar,” he said, “as long as the rest of the world continues using the dollar.”

    “And the rest of the world doesn’t want to risk being subject to U.S. sanctions, or be banned from using the U.S. financial system,” Bryza said.

    The U.S. Treasury Department in Washington on Oct. 3, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

    Bypassing SWIFT

    The notion of de-dollarization also involves the creation of alternative methods of cross-border payment so as to achieve independence from Western systems.

    Currently, the primary system for international payments is the Belgium-based SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication), which was set up in 1973.

    Because the U.S. Treasury Department has considerable oversight over SWIFT, Russia, along with other BRICS states, claim the system has been “weaponized” by Washington and its allies.

    Therefore, BRICS states hope to create an alternative system, which would—theoretically—insulate its members from the threat of U.S.-led sanctions.

    The joint declaration issued in Kazan calls for “more efficient, transparent, safe, and inclusive cross-border payment instruments built upon the principle of minimizing trade barriers and non-discriminatory access.”

    Ferit Temur, a Turkish political analyst specialized in Russian affairs, noted that Russia has already launched its own “Mir” payment system, although this has met with limited success.

    “But whether the Mir system—or another system—is developed, it isn’t a realistic goal for BRICS countries to quickly eliminate SWIFT,” Temur told The Epoch Times.

    “This is due to the SWIFT system’s high rate of use, both among BRICS states and in trade with the rest of the world,” he said.

    Nevertheless, de-dollarization—as envisioned by Moscow and Beijing—“may find a response in a significant part of the world over the next 10 to 15 years,” he said.

    According to Bryza, an alternative system has “zero prospect of succeeding, because SWIFT works great—as long as you don’t invade another country.”

    “Russia’s political ambitions won’t ever be able to overcome the enormous financial and economic benefit the SWIFT system provides,” he said.

    “They can try to de-dollarize all they want,” Bryza said. “But until the entire world has a de-dollarized economy, this won’t have much of an impact at all on insulating these countries from sanctions.”

    Salemeh, by contrast, described de-dollarization as a “very realistic approach” to the economic problems facing certain BRICS states.

    BRICS members, he said, want to protect their economies from “the weaponization of the dollar, U.S. sanctions, and the dollar’s fast-declining purchasing power.”

    “They are further encouraged by central banks reducing their dollar holdings and buying gold because of the lack of confidence in the dollar,” Salemeh added.

    Cohen conceded that a rival, de-dollarized system “may be a possibility,” going on to assert that such a move would “make sanctions enforcement more difficult.”

    “However,” he said, “it won’t make the dollar obsolete.”

    Cohen said Russia is “taking the lead” on the de-dollarization scheme, “but the country that can really pull it off—in terms of the size of its economy—is China.”

    Wesley Alexander Hill, lead analyst and international program manager for energy, growth, and security at the International Tax and Investment Center, described all the talk about de-dollarization as “totally overblown.”

    Russia and China, he said, are both fully aware that “the systems they have set up cannot compete with the dollar.”

    “China does have the theoretical capacity to challenge the dollar in the global financial system,” Hill told The Epoch Times. “But this is an extremely long-term project—the work of 20 to 30 years.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 14:00

  • GEOINT Data Shows Israel Hit Iran's Former Nuke Weapons Test Building, Missile Production Facility
    GEOINT Data Shows Israel Hit Iran’s Former Nuke Weapons Test Building, Missile Production Facility

    On Friday evening, Israel Defense Forces launched three waves of fighter jets targeting high-value military assets in Iran. IDF officials described the operation as retaliation for “months of relentless attacks” orchestrated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Israel and regional allies. No videos or images of the Israeli strikes were published online, but as of Saturday evening, geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) data revealed a former nuclear weapons building and missile sites were targeted. 

    David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector, and Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington-based think tank, used commercial satellite imagery in separate assessments about the effectiveness of Israeli strikes.

    They told Reuters that IDF fighter jets hit Iran’s Parchin military base with missiles and bombs. This site is where the International Atomic Energy Agency suspects IRGC to have previously performed tests of high explosives that could trigger a nuclear explosion.

    Nearby Khojir military base was also hit by missiles and bombs. Some analysts believe an underground tunnel system and missile production site lie beneath this military base. 

    Eveleth pointed out that IDF’s strike may have “significantly hampered Iran’s ability to mass produce missiles,” adding satellite imagery data from commercial satellite firm Planet Labs showed IDF jets hit three ballistic missile solid fuel mixing buildings and a warehouse at Khojir. 

    Here’s more Reuters:

    The buildings were enclosed by high dirt berms, according to the image reviewed by Reuters. Such structures are associated with missile production and are designed to stop a blast in one building from detonating combustible materials in nearby structures.

    “Israel says they targeted buildings housing solid-fuel mixers,” Eveleth said. “These industrial mixers are hard to make and export-controlled. Iran imported many over the years at great expense, and will likely have a hard time replacing them.”

    With a limited operation, he said, Israel may have struck a significant blow against Iran’s ability to mass-produce missiles and made it more difficult for any future Iranian missile attack to pierce Israel’s missile defenses.

    “The strikes appear to be highly accurate,” he said.

    On X, Eveleth posted satellite imagery of the damage at Khojir and Parchi…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In our view, this is likely the first round of IDF strikes on Iran to paralyze the IRGC’s command and control center. The leaked US intel of IDF preparations indeed delayed the operation – and perhaps the leaker was trying to postpone the fireworks until after the US presidential elections. Additional strikes on Iran could potentially target IRGC’s financial network and ability to export crude to China. 

    In markets, the geopolitical risk premium for Brent crude has faded recently as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken runs around the Middle East to ensure World War III does not occur before the US presidential elections in early November.

    But maybe after the elections… the fireworks fly. And this would mean Brent crude prices move much higher.

    Before the IDF strike on Iran on Friday, the US offered a defense guarantee to Saudis.

    This is likely because the Abqaiq refinery (the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world) – is likely in the crosshairs of potential future IRGC missile and drone attacks.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 13:25

  • Former Vatican Ambassador Calls Kamala "An Infernal Monster Who Obeys Satan"
    Former Vatican Ambassador Calls Kamala “An Infernal Monster Who Obeys Satan”

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    Former Vatican Roman Catholic Archbishop Carlo Maria Viganò endorsed Donald Trump for president this week, urging that Kamala Harris represents “an anti-Catholic, anti-Christian, and anti-human vision of society.”

    Viganò, who was the Vatican’s ambassador to the US from 2011 to 2016, writes in a letter to Catholics “The choice is between a conservative President, who is paying with his very life for his fight against the deep state, and an infernal monster who obeys Satan.”

    “For a Catholic, there can be no question: voting for Kamala Harris is morally inadmissible and constitutes a very grave sin. Nor is it morally possible to abstain, because in this war declaring oneself neutral means allying oneself with the enemy,” he further asserts.

    A vote for Trump “means firmly distancing ourselves from an anti-Catholic, anti-Christian, and anti-human vision of society,” Viganò continues, adding “It means stopping those who want to create a hellish dystopia that is even worse than the one announced by George Orwell.”

    Viganò urges that Trump is “the only possible choice to counter the globalist coup that the woke Left is about to implement definitively, irreparably, and with incalculable damage for future generations.”

    The former archbishop further describes Harris as a George Soros “puppet,” who is controlled directly by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

    Viganò was excommunicated from the Catholic Church in July after repeatedly voicing opposition to the current Pope and modern changes made to the Roman Catholic Church.

    He was extremely outspoken in opposing COVID vaccines, charging that public health authorities were conducting “experimentation on the entire world population,” and slamming the Catholic church for going along with it.

    * * *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 12:50

  • Japan's Ruling Coalition To Lose Majority For First Time Since 2009: What Happens Next And How Will Markets React
    Japan’s Ruling Coalition To Lose Majority For First Time Since 2009: What Happens Next And How Will Markets React

    In a surprising turn of events, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner are set to lose their majority in Sunday’s election, according to a forecast from public broadcaster NHK, raising questions about the future of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

    Amid voter discontent over a slush-fund scandal, not to mention Japan’s worst runaway inflation in generations, the LDP and Komeito appear likely to fall short of the 233 seats needed for a majority in the lower house of parliament, NHK forecasts. Ishiba had aimed to secure a majority with his coalition partner, recognizing that the LDP would not retain the 247 seats it held before the election.

    Falling short of that goal would mark the first time the LDP has lost a coalition majority in an election since 2009.

    Public support for the LDP nosedived after the revelations last year that party members were secretly enriching themselves with funds from supporters, similar to what politicians do everywhere else around the world and especially in the US. As a result, nearly every poll before the election suggested the LDP would lose seats and possibly its majority with Komeito because of the scandal.

    “We couldn’t dispel public anger over the political funds issue,” Ishiba said Sunday. When asked if he would consider forming a coalition with other parties, he said no decisions had been made, but added that he was willing to cooperate with others if policies align.

    The early vote count shows the LDP and Komeito with a combined 145 seats, according to NHK. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan has 112 seats, the broadcaster said.  CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda said he would seek to take over the government if the coalition loses its majority.

    “If the LDP does indeed lose its majority powers, this could create a quagmire regarding the legislative process — a scenario which may not bode well for the yen and the Nikkei, at least in the short term,” said Tim Waterer, Sydney-based chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

    Shinjiro Koizumi at the Liberal Democratic Party’s headquarters on Oct. 27.

    What does this mean for Japan’s markets?

    Below we share some preliminary thoughts from Goldman Japan FICC trader Ippei Yamaura, who writes that “the bottom line is negative for Japan equities” and while “positioning looks good, investors are too optimistic for helps from DPP and/or Ishin.”

    Estimated result

    Here is the estimated range of each party as of now(9:40pm JST). Several news sources say LDP+Komei fail to keep majority(233 seats or more).

    What is the expected price action?

    In Yamaura’s view, the Nikkei will drop on Monday and end down 2% or so, less than option market indicated as of last Friday. This is because investors are somewhat prepared for this scenario. However, the selloff will continue for a week or so as investors realize that it will be difficult for LDP to get support from DPP and/or Ishin. 

    Is this surprising?

    The outcome is not a big surprise but was not fully priced in. After Asahi (highly reputed poll conductor for general elections) reported the chance of LDP+Komei to lose majority, market started to price in it through selling equities. NKY option market looked pricing roughly 3-4% move on tomorrow as of last Friday. Assuming investors looked at 5% selloff in NKY in the scenario of LDP+Kome failure, market might price 60-80% chance of this result. From this point, the option market was well prepared but (as you know,) options are just one aspect of investors’ view. Experts(including Goldman’s political analyst) saw around 50% chance of this scenario. For these investors, this result should be a surprise.

    What was the expected implication and how much was priced in as of last Friday?

    1. LDP would keep simple majority(233+)=5%. In this scenario, the expected market move would be equities to go higher, yen to strengthen.
    2. LDP+Komei would keep majority(233+) = 35%. In this scenario, the expected market move would be equities to go higher and JPY to go stable.
    3. LDP+Komei would fail to keep majority = 60%. In this scenario, the expected market move would be equities to go lower and JPY to weaken as LDP may need support from Ishin or CDP, both of which favor easy monetary policy.

    So it means #3 scenario is realized although more investors might see it as main scenario. 

    What will happen now?

    Prime minister Ishiba must hold a special diet session by Nov 26 and appoint the prime minister. The new prime minister will need to get nomination from both upper house and lower house. And if there is conflict between upper house and lower house, lower house nomination will be prioritized. Upper house nomination is not an issue as LDP+Komei have majority. But as they lose their majority in the lower house, without cooperation from some lower house members outside of LDP+Komei, they cannot nominate the new prime minister. Ishiba may now try to get support (with early Nov the likely limit). Here are some options.

    1. Re-endorse LDP members who couldn’t get endorsement from LDP due to money scandals.

    This is the most probable scenario. But there are 2 problems. First, there may not enough numbers of members this time. As of now, it is expected that only 4 members out of 10 non-endorsed members will be back to parliament. 4 is not enough to cover such a big loss. Second, it is unclear if the abused members will help Ishiba. Some LDP members, especially right wing members, already complained about Ishiba and cabinet during campaign period. According to Goldman, “there may be big dissatisfactions.”

    2. Try to get support from CDP and/or Ishin

    DPP and Ishin have some similarities like defense policies etc. As #1 is not effective option anymore, Ishiba may try to pursue this option by forming a cabinet together. It looks like majority of investors are optimistic about this option. However, it’s worth highlighting that the leader of both DPP and Ishin denied this option in advance. Of course, this can be a political bluff. But experts believe it is not. The reason is upper house election which will be held on July 25, 2025. Experts think if DPP and Ishin joined cabinet now, they would soon lose popularity as majority of voters for them expected they would fight with LDP.

    What will happen if LDP+Komei cannot get help from anybody?

    Ishiba may be forced to form “Minority government”. It means he would need to manage a cabinet without support from parliament. In order to get nomination from lower house, he may need to do many concession and get support from some opposition parties. As many of the majority parties’ policies are not market friendly, this can possibly affect market negatively. Opposition parties may change their stance policy by policy. It means Ishiba and LDP cannot implement their policies as they stand.

    What are other things to watch?

    The supplemental budget should be a big focus. Ishiba previously said he would form a supplemental budget of JPY13 trillion or more (although he previously denied such a big fiscal expenditure). LDP may want to form as big budget (including cash distribution to lower income people) as possible to recover popularity. But opposition parties may try to limit it. Usually, Japanese equities favor a bigger budget (as do all equities, everywhere). So closely watch what opposition parties say on this. Generally speaking, at least the DPP is supportive of fiscal expansion.

    Tax is also a key focus too. Ishiba is generally supportive of raising taxes. However, after such a big loss, there may be big opposition for further tax hikes. DPP is said to be supportive for fiscal expansion. It means raising tax (especially income tax) is less likely now (Except for financial income tax).

    What does the positioning look like now?

    Overall positive.

    CTAs=Flat to slightly negative. 

    CTAs have already re-built longs for Japan equities. Goldman’s strats team expects CTA to sell again if the market goes lower. But also worth noting that positions for Japan equities is less than its peak. 

    Long/Short=flat

    Our PB data suggests net allocation for Japan equities remain low despite big fluctuation of China market. Long/Short investors have not come back yet since the big selloff in early Aug.

    Long onlys = Positive

    As Japanese equities went lower with weakening yen, the asset is the worst performance in major assets MTD. Yamaura  expects some investors may need to buy Japan equities into month end to keep the same level of exposure.

    Retail = Not bad

    If you look at margin data, retail position has not been fully back yet since Aug selloff. They may have some room to buy on dip.

    To summarize Goldman’s view: Monday’s selloff will be milder than the option market indicated, but the selloff will not be limited to just 1 day.

    More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 12:15

  • Americans Are More Dependent Than Ever On Government Handouts, New Report States
    Americans Are More Dependent Than Ever On Government Handouts, New Report States

    Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times,

    Payments from the government have become the fastest-growing source of income for Americans, according to a new study.

    A report by the Economic Innovation Group (EIG), a public policy research organization, titled “The Great Transfer-mation,” states that Americans have become substantially more dependent on government support, with the share of national income coming from transfer payments more than doubling over the past 50 years.

    Transfer payment programs include Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, unemployment and disability, food stamps, and veterans’ benefits.

    Transfer payments increased from 8 percent of U.S. total income in 1970 to 18 percent today, the report states, crowding out private income from wages and investments.

    “There is a large range of experiences driving transfer reliance across communities,” Benjamin Glasner, EIG economist and one of the report’s authors, told The Epoch Times. “But it’s unavoidable to look at the fact that transfer reliance has grown rapidly across the country, and it’s something we need to deal with.”

    According to Federal Reserve data, government transfer payments increased from about $70 billion in 1970 to more than $6 trillion in 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, before falling back to the current level of $4.3 trillion. According to the EIG report, if government transfer payments were spread evenly among all Americans, they would have amounted to an annual payment of $11,500 per person in 2022.

    One factor driving much of the shift from private income to government dependence is that the U.S. population is, on average, getting older. According to demographic data from USAfacts, the percentage of Americans 65 years and older increased from 13.1 percent of the population in 2010 to 17.3 percent in 2022. During the same period, the percentage of Americans under the age of 20 fell from 26.9 percent to 24.4 percent.

    “The primary driver that we found in our report is demographic related, specifically the fact that the country has aged so rapidly,” Glasner said. “And the transfer programs that target that aging population also have grown significantly more expensive over time.”

    Of all government assistance payments in 2022, 56 percent went to the elderly, mostly for Medicare, the EIG report stated. Health care costs were a major factor, both because more Americans qualified for Medicare and Medicaid, and because the cost of medical treatment rose significantly.

    According to data compiled by Peterson-KFF, a health care policy analytics organization, total health spending in the United States was $74.1 billion in 1970. By 2022 total health spending was $4.5 trillion, indicating an exponential increase in medical costs per capita.

    Public Finances Under Strain

    The growth in transfer payments have taken their toll on state and federal budgets.

    The 2024 Pension Solvency and Performance Report, authored by Ryan Frost and Mariana Trujillo for Reason Foundation’s Pension Integrity Project, stated that public pensions are increasingly falling behind on their ability to pay.

    As of 2023, the authors state, total unfunded public pension liabilities across the United States hit $1.59 trillion, and the median funded ratio was 76 percent. The U.S. federal deficit is currently $1.8 trillion, and interest payments on U.S. government debt increased from $31 billion in 1970 to more than $1 trillion today.

    In addition, some analysts say that this growing dependence on government comes at the cost of personal autonomy and responsibility.

    “The surge in transfer payments during the past 50 years is just one manifestation of the trend to politicize and tangle up all aspects of Americans’ lives with the government,” Steve Hanke, professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University and a member of the board of directors of the Federal Fiscal Sustainability Foundation, told The Epoch Times. “It results because of politicians’ inevitable attraction to buy votes by promising ‘free lunches,’ and the fact that politicians don’t face statutory or constitutional spending constraints.”

    To illustrate the extent of the shift to government dependence, EIG created maps showing the percentage of income that came from transfer payments, broken down by county, over time.

    In 1970, only about 1 percent of all U.S. counties reported that government transfers made up more than 25 percent of total income in their county; by 2022, more than half of U.S. counties reported dependence at that level.

    Transfer payments as a percent of total income, by county, in 1970; 15 percent or more in green; 25 percent or more in yellow. Source: Economic Innovation Group

    Government transfer payments as a percent of total income, by county, in 2022; 15 percent or more in green; 25 percent or more in yellow. Source: Economic Innovation Group

    Aging, Shrinking Populations

    While the reasons for this dependence varied from region to region, aging populations, and outward migration were common themes, particularly in rural counties. Often, young people leave small towns for better jobs in cities, and this both increases the percentage of retired people and decreases the number of people earning private wages in rural areas.

    In addition, as societies industrialize, people migrate from farms to cities, and women enter the labor force in larger numbers, and fertility rates fall. While this trend has been observed over the past several decades throughout the world, the United States has been experiencing this trend for two centuries.

    In 1825, the average woman in America gave birth to more than six children, according to Statista, a data collection firm. As the United States industrialized and urbanized, the birth rate declined, hitting a low of two children per woman in 1940 before rebounding to 3.58 children in 1960, during the “baby boom” generation.

    The minimum fertility rate to sustain a population is 2.1 children per woman. The United States dipped below this rate in 1973 and has remained below replacement level ever since, according to data from Macrotrends. While U.S. fertility rates increased marginally through 2008, they have since fallen back to the current rate of about 1.8 children per woman.

    While countries such as Japan have seen their populations fall due to low fertility, the United States has experienced continuous population growth. But this is largely due to immigration rather than native-born Americans having children.

    The Congressional Budget Office projects that, without immigration, America’s population will begin to shrink, starting in 2040.

    Economic Security Versus Prosperity

    The increasing dependence on the government for income raises the issue of how the United States can balance economic security for its dependents against overall economic growth and prosperity.

    “The increased politicization of life will put a damper on economic prosperity,” Hanke said. “For every dollar taken out of one taxpayer’s pocket and put into another’s, there is a cost, an excess burden.

    “This burden is the result of distortions thrown into the economy by imposing a tax, and the administrative costs of levying the tax and of running the government’s transfer payments system,” he said.

    Arthur Laffer, a noted economist who specializes in tax policy, wrote in his 2023 book, “Taxes Have Consequences,” that raising taxes much beyond current levels will choke off economic growth, thus reducing the tax base.

    “The more you redistribute, the greater will be the drop in total income,” Laffer said in a 2023 interview with The Epoch Times.

    Consequently, governments are increasingly caught between a rock and a hard place regarding how to pay for social programs.

    Interest payments on America’s federal debt are currently the third largest budget item, after Social Security and non-defense discretionary spending, and exceeding Medicare and military spending, an August 2024 report by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation states based on Congressional Budget Office projections published in June.

    Treasury data for the fiscal year 2024, running Oct. 1, 2023, to Sept. 30, show that interest expense was $896 billion.

    According to projections from the Congressional Budget Office, interest payments on the federal debt will double as a percentage of GDP by 2054 and will become the largest single item in the federal budget by 2051.

    Potential Solutions

    According to Glasner, there are three options for governments to continue providing transfer payments. The first is cutting benefits, but that appears to be politically untenable, and neither Democrats nor Republicans have expressed any intention to do so.

    The second is raising taxes, he said, “but there’s some risk to that, because overdoing increases in taxation can potentially cut off sources of economic growth, undercutting our actual capacity to deal with this.”

    The third and most viable option, Glasner argues, is to increase economic growth and private income. Among the ways to do this, he says, are “investments in research and innovation, better-designed immigration policy, and tax and regulatory policies that foster economic dynamism and increased participation in the workforce.”

    Although America’s financial situation may appear dire, a September report from the Manhattan Institute titled “America’s Surprisingly Effective Welfare State,” argues that the United States is in better shape than many other Western nations.

    While Europe’s social programs provide support payments regardless of need, America’s transfer systems are more selective and thus less costly while delivering more money to the poorest.

    “Europe’s welfare states are dominated by costly publicly funded ‘social insurance’ programs, which attempt to fully support middle-class lifestyles through periods of unemployment, ill health, disability, or retirement,” the report states. “By contrast, American public entitlement programs are more focused on providing a safety net against poverty, and they more strictly limit eligibility for cash and health care benefits to those who are unable to work.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/27/2024 – 11:40

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  • The Atlantic Council Has Big Plans For A War Between The US And Iran
    The Atlantic Council Has Big Plans For A War Between The US And Iran

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

    Globalists as an organized entity have a habit of shifting their efforts between various false-front institutions in order to avoid significant scrutiny. For example, in 2020 they ramped up the fear machine on the covid pandemic and the World Economic Forum took a lead role in that effort. Klaus Schwab was all over the media using covid as an excuse to promote every authoritarian measure imaginable.

    When that agenda failed (lockdowns blocked, mask mandates ignored, vaccine passports defeated and the CDC caught inflating vaccination numbers), the WEF and Klaus Schwab conveniently disappeared from the media radar.

    When globalists tried to permanently establish ESG as a way of life for corporations, they introduced the Council For Inclusive Capitalism, run by Lynn de Rothschild and partnered with the Vatican. When ESG was exposed for what it really is (a bridge to full bore communism in which corporations enforce far left social engineering), the CIC vanished from the limelight as quickly as they appeared.

    That said, there is one globalist group that has consistently been in the background during most of these operations – The Atlantic Council. Whenever there’s a propaganda push in play to misdirect the western public, whenever there’s a policy initiative to take away your freedoms, whenever there’s a regional war that might explode into a world war, I always end up finding the fingerprints of the Atlantic Council.

    The council was deeply involved in covid propaganda from 2020 onward and they also have their hands in climate change propaganda, but their bread and butter is regional proxy wars.

    In my recent article ‘Globalists Are Trying To Escalate The Ukraine War Into WWIII Before The US Election’, I outlined how the council is deeply interwoven into the escalation of the Ukraine war through their Eurasia Center and their Scowcroft Center. They have been stoking conflict in the region for at least a decade with the intention of drawing NATO forces into a direct confrontation with Russia.

    In a report published by the Atlantic Council in 2014 titled ‘A Roadmap for Ukraine: Delivering on the Promise of the Maidan’, the group notes:

    “Last fall, as Ukrainians massed on the Maidan to demand a better government and closer ties to Europe, the Atlantic Council began to mobilize on Ukraine. An Atlantic Council delegation visited Warsaw and Kyiv in March to map out our strategy, and during the visit of Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk to the Council that same month, we launched a one hundred- day campaign to galvanize the transatlantic community behind Ukraine’s democratic future in Europe.

    As the crisis worsened, we convened at the highest levels, making vital connections between Ukrainian, American, and European policymakers and thought leaders. We deployed our substantial expertise to launch “red team” exercises that anticipated Russia’s actions and outlined strategies to respond to likely scenarios. Our rapid response working groups (“tiger teams”) made recommendations on issues fundamental to Ukraine’s success. An Atlantic Council delegation delivered this report, which brings all of these findings together, to Prime Minister Yatsenyuk and other leaders in Kyiv the first week of July. The findings are also being shared with American and European policymakers…”

    On Ukraine’s security policy, the Council advised both NATO and Ukraine officials.  The document goes on to outline how NATO could covertly and overtly engage with Ukraine to strengthen their chances of joining with the EU over time; a move which Vladimir Putin claims was one of the very reasons for his invasion of the Donbas.  Finally, the paper described how NATO could foster a proxy war against Russia through Ukraine without directly declaring war on Russia.  As the Council states:

    “Russia’s aggression provides an opportunity of strategic clarity and urgency that should be used to expedite building a robust, modern, and capable Ukrainian defense and security establishment…”

    I believe the Atlantic Council is a root instigator behind every globalist scheme to trigger a larger war between the East and the West. Their ideal scenario seems to be the creation of a proxy conflict that acts as a first domino in a chain that leads to world war, a bit like DARPA’s “Linchpin Theory” which I have written about in the past.

    To be clear, the council is not only interested in Ukraine and Russia. They’re happy to embroil Americans in a larger war wherever they can.

    This past week, the Atlantic Council has published another war scenario report dealing with Iran titled ‘The Future of US Strategy Toward Iran: A Bipartisan Roadmap For The Next Administration’. The goal of the report is to influence a new defense doctrine with a mission to insert the US directly in the middle of the burgeoning war between Iran and Israel.

    As the report states:

    “In simple terms, the goal was to develop a US policy toward Iran, not a Democratic or Republican one. We termed the effort the Iran Strategy Project (ISP). And when we began recruiting experts to join our advisory committee and working group, we did so with two overriding principles in mind. First, ideological diversity and bipartisanship could not just be talking points—they were requirements. The wild swings of US policy toward Iran over the last decade created significant policy gaps that Iran exploited to more rapidly advance its regional malign influence and nuclear program…”

    The assumption in the notion of a “bipartisan” posture on Iran is that there is common ground to be harvested between conservatives and leftists when it comes to war in the region. To be sure, the Democrats and the Neo-Cons are in full agreement on most things.  But Neo-Cons are not conservatives and the political base on both sides of the aisle has little interest in another war in the Middle East.

    The wild card here is Trump. The establishment media reports that Iran hacked the Trump campaign’s election strategies and gave them to the Harris camp. There are also rumors spread by US intelligence agencies that Iran was working to have Trump assassinated.  Are these claims true? There’s little public evidence available to prove it.

    Maybe Iran really wants to take Trump down. Or, maybe this is part of a plot to ensure that Trump backs a full blown war with Iran should he win the election.  Trump has said repeatedly that he intends to end the war in Ukraine upon his return to the White House. This would ruin over a decade of planning by the Atlantic Council. But what if they can sink the US into a different conflict with the same potential for a world war? That’s what Iran is – Another linchpin.

    The council asserts that they will seek to tie the US inexorably to the fate of Israel by positioning a permanent American military force in the region:

    “Deterring the threat posed by Iran and its proxies requires a multifaceted approach that includes maintaining an adequate military presence in the region and a willingness to respond with appropriate force to attacks on US interests and those of US allies; working with allies to enhance cooperation on regional security; collaborating with partners on ways to reduce conflicts and instability that create openings for Iran to exploit; and expanding security cooperation beyond traditional realms.”

    They also want the US to create its own red line declaration; if Iran obtains nukes, then Iran must be destroyed (keep in mind, it is confirmed that Israel already has its own nuclear arsenal).

    “The United States needs to maintain a declaratory policy, explicitly enunciated by the president, that it will not tolerate Iran getting a nuclear weapon and will use military force to prevent this development if all other measures fail. To support this policy, the United States should refrain from stressing that it does not seek conflict with Iran; announce that it will conduct yearly joint exercises with Israel, such as Juniper Oak.”

    Juniper Oak was a joint live fire war exercise organized by US and Israeli defense forces in 2023 which is viewed as a theoretical trial run for an attack on Iran. War between Iran and the US has been a sought after outcome for globalists for a long time, but it seems to me that they are particularly interested in roping Trump into the agenda.  The following statement from the Atlantic Council report is highly suspicious:

    “Because assassination plots against current or former US officials are a direct threat to US sovereignty, and in order to enhance deterrence, the United States needs to consider a standing policy of a kinetic military response against Iran in retaliation for a successful—or even close to successful—plot…”

    This seems to be a direct reference or message to Trump concerning the rumors of Iran contracting his death. Given there have been at least two assassination attempts on Trump so far, I would not be surprised if after he wins the election new information is suddenly released linking Iran to at least one attack.  I would also expect a major terror attack in the US within the next year (real or false flag).

    This is not to say that Trump wants war; I can’t make that claim one way or the other yet.  To his credit he was one of the few presidents that avoided the expansion of US conflicts during his first term. But as I warned back in 2016, he had a LOT of ghouls in his cabinet whispering in his ear. Keeping the Atlantic Council (among others) away from the Oval Office and Trump should be a priority in 2025.

    The council appears to be positioning for a war under either administration – A war with Russia under Harris or a war with Iran under Trump.  I’m not a fan of Islamic fundamentalism, but a conflict between the US and Iran is exactly what the globalists want because it can easily metastasize like a cancer.

    The council notes that there are already 40,000 US troops spread across the Middle East, and that this force could be reorganized into a contingent for rapid response to Iran, along with new troops added over time. Of course, they acknowledge that Iran’s situation has changed over the years, with far closer strategic associations with China and Russia:

    “This requires recognition that Iran’s relationship with Russia and China has evolved in a manner that makes it difficult to convince either country to support new economic or military restrictions against Iran…”

    In other words, the council understands that a war with Iran could escalate into a larger conflict with Russia and perhaps China.

    The fight between Israel and multiple nations in the Middle East does not concern me. I have no stake in the success of either side. I’m an American and I care about America, but there are powerful people out there that WANT us to become invested in foreign wars. They want us to pick a side and they want us to cheer for American troops being sent to fight and die over these foreign conflagrations.

    The greater concern here is that one day these proxy wars and regional wars will explode into something that lands on our doorstep. In the past Americans have been lured into apathy when it comes to foreign entanglements because we never have to deal with them in our daily lives. They’ve always been out of sight and out of mind. In the next war, we may not have that luxury.

    *  *  *

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 23:20

  • US Intelligence Says China Leading 'Rapid Expansion' Of Nuclear Arsenal
    US Intelligence Says China Leading ‘Rapid Expansion’ Of Nuclear Arsenal

    On Wednesday the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) issued a new public intelligence estimate entitled “Nuclear Challenges 2024”. 

    The detailed 194-page document includes an overview of chief nuclear-armed powers and rivals of the United States, focusing especially on countries with “mature nuclear weapons programs” which are said to be “increasing stockpiles” or else “modernizing their legacy stockpiles by incorporating advanced technologies to penetrate or avoid missile defense systems” – such as North Korea.

    Xinhua via Getty Images

    “Countries are also developing nuclear weapons with smaller yields, improved precision, and increased range for military or coercive use,” the DIA says.

    One nation’s program is gaining the most attention as a result of the DIA report, and that’s China. The intelligence agency assesses the country under President Xi is undergoing a huge and rapid expanse of its nuclear arsenal, which is the biggest in its history, assuming the projection is accurate. 

    The “Nuclear Challenges 2024” assesses that China is on track to possess more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030.

    The report contextualizes that this accelerated growth is being drive primarily by China’s strategic competition with the Untied States.

    Below is a section providing the DIA’s bird’s eye view summary of China’s nuclear arsenal plans and expansion:

    China. Beijing has far surpassed earlier growth estimates assessed in 2018, and is currently exceeding 500 deliverable nuclear warheads in its stockpile. By 2030, we estimate that China will have more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads— most of which will be fielded on systems capable of ranging the continental United States. China probably also seeks lower-yield nuclear warhead capabilities to provide proportional response options that its high-yield warheads cannot deliver. For example, China is increasing its stockpile of theater-range delivery systems, such as the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM).

    Below is a current snapshot of the global nuclear stockpile situation, as it stood by middle of this year…

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, currently, there are estimated to be 9,585 nuclear warheads in military stockpiles for potential use across nine countries, with Russia and the U.S. accounting for 8,088 of these.

    There are also an estimated 2,536 retired warheads that are yet to be dismantled. China has added 90 nuclear warheads to its arsenal since January 2023, increasing from 410 warheads to 500.

    This is according to data from the peace research institute SIPRI. India and North Korea have also expanded their arsenals, bringing their total figures to an estimated 170 warheads and 50 warheads, respectively.

    The two European nuclear powers, France and the UK, together have 515 operational nuclear warheads. With the exception of North Korea, none of the nations in possession of nuclear warheads have tested them since the 1990s.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 22:45

  • The Green New Scam Is Dying
    The Green New Scam Is Dying

    Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

    It’s no secret that the vast majority of the so-called elites are advocates of climate alarmism and are taken in by the Green New Scam.

    Whether this preference is based on ignorance of the science, ideological zeal, a willful desire to hurt American growth or simple greed because of their investments in Green New Scam infrastructure varies case by case.

    The typical upper-income supporter of the climate cult including academics, media figures and celebrities is probably ignorant of the fact that there is no evidence that CO2 emissions cause climate change and that the real causes are solar cycles, volcanoes, ocean currents and atmospheric moisture not caused by humans.

    Climate Alarmists Have It Backward

    The historical record actually demonstrates that warming periods produce higher CO2 levels — not the other way around. CO2 doesn’t cause warming. It’s caused by natural warming.

    In other words, climate alarmists have causation completely backward.

    Climate alarmism is based almost entirely on computer models, which depend on the inputs the modelers themselves build into them. A model is only as good as the inputs and assumptions programmed into it.

    Virtually every one of these models has overestimated warming, sometimes by orders of magnitude, because it’s based on faulty assumptions that overestimate the impact of CO2 on climate.

    In other words, it’s junk science. But they keep relying on these models because their political agenda requires it.

    Climate: The New Communism

    There’s no doubt that a fair number of neo-Marxists embrace the climate scam because they know it damages U.S. industry, raises costs to U.S. consumers and helps to undermine the U.S. economy.

    Following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of communism, anti-capitalistic collectivists admitted that they needed to promote the climate agenda because the only way to combat global warming is through collective action. It requires a coordinated global effort that limits national sovereignty.

    The neo-Marxists are impervious to evidence; they just want to hurt America and wasting money on windmills instead of building new refineries is a good way to do it. That leaves the greed crowd.

    The Real “Green” in the Green Agenda

    They’re early investors in windmills, solar modules, lithium car batteries, EVs, charging stations, carbon credits and other infrastructure of the climate scam. They stand to make billions of dollars off the narrative with help from extravagant government subsidies.

    They don’t really care if it all collapses in the end (which it will) as long as they get rich at taxpayer expense in the meantime. All of this behavior is clear as far as it goes. What is not clear is the extent to which the Green New Scammers are doing this with your money.

    The best example is multibillionaire Larry Fink, who runs the giant BlackRock investment fund. Fink has been aggressive in promoting the climate scam along with racial quotas, DEI and defunding police.

    He’s entitled to his opinions. But is he entitled to pursue his radical agenda with pension fund money from conservative states and institutions? Fortunately, a backlash has begun against Fink and his fellow wokesters.

    More state pension fund managers are beginning to pull their funds from BlackRock and other investment managers that pursue far-left policies not in the best interests of their beneficiaries. This backlash may not change Larry Fink’s lifestyle. But over time, it might change the world for the better.

    The EV Sham

    A major part of the climate agenda includes electric vehicles (EVs). I’ve been warning for years that EVs aren’t feasible as a transportation solution for more than relatively few Americans and that they are little more than glorified golf carts despite the $70,000-and-up price tags.

    In the first place, EVs don’t cut carbon emissions. The car itself does not have emissions, but it’s charged with electricity from power plants that do.

    The batteries are made with poisonous chemicals and metals including lithium, cobalt, copper and nickel that come from mining operations that use enormous amounts of water and electricity to extract the needed materials.

    It takes thousands of tons of ore to extract enough critical minerals to make one battery. EVs don’t take a charge in extreme cold, and the batteries can’t hold a charge. Travel range is grossly overstated for many reasons, including the fact that EV car heaters drain the batteries (with internal-combustion engines, ICEs, the engine makes heat which can easily be directed into the car to keep passengers comfortable with no additional energy required).

    Resale values of EVs are close to zero because buyers of used EVs have to shell out $25,000 or more for new batteries after the vehicle is about seven years old. The list of drawbacks goes on.

    Most Americans have resisted EVs because they understand the disadvantages. But many Americans were drawn to the false promise of emission-free transportation and other ridiculous claims by the Green New Scammers. Now even the most committed EV buyers are waking up.

    I Want My ICE Car Back

    A fairly recent survey by consulting firm McKinsey and Co. shows that 29% of EV owners in nine major economies want to return to ICE vehicles. When the sample is narrowed to just the U.S., 46% of those surveyed want to return to ICEs.

    The McKinsey officials who conducted the survey claimed to be “surprised” by those results. That probably says something about the fact that McKinsey experts were just as deluded about EVs as the buyers surveyed.

    When breaking down the results, 45% say EVs are too expensive, 33% say they have charging concerns and 29% are concerned about the limited driving range.

    The truth is that the EV was invented in 1837 and reached the peak of its popularity in 1910 just before the mass production of internal-combustion cars by Henry Ford. The American public got it right when they flocked to the Model T.

    It sounds like they’re getting it right again after a brief infatuation with the false promise of the EV. The bottom line is that the Green New Scam is falling apart.

    It can’t happen soon enough.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 22:10

  • Zelensky Outraged Over UN Chief Getting Chummy With Putin At BRICS
    Zelensky Outraged Over UN Chief Getting Chummy With Putin At BRICS

    Ukraine is seething over the fact that United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was in Kazan, Russia this week for the major BRICS summit, where he was seen getting chummy with leaders like Presidents Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko.

    A smiling Guterres was photographed shaking hands with Putin during the ‘family photo’ ceremony, and actually at one point hugged Belarusian strongman Lukashenko.

    Via Kremlin.ru

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has subsequently blasted the UN chief for the warm embrace of Ukraine’s ‘enemies’.

    An official close to Zelensky has described to Politico that Guterres “shook hands with him [Putin]. He smiled. He was asked to come to promote the BRICS summit even more. He was used by them, and he seemed happy to be used.”

    Ukraine has reportedly informed Guterres that he will no longer be hosted in Kiev on visits. “Even if some officials prefer the allure of Kazan over the substance of the U.N. Charter, our world is structured so that the rights of nations and international legal norms matter, and will continue to matter,” said Zelensky in a Thursday night address.

    And an official Ukrainian Foreign Ministry statement also slammed the UN chief: “The UN Secretary General declined Ukraine’s invitation to the first global peace summit in Switzerland. He did, however, accept the invitation to Kazan from war criminal Putin,” a message posted on X stated.

    “This is a wrong choice that does not advance the cause of peace. It only damages the UN’s reputation,” the statement added.

    Staunch supporters of Kiev also lashed out at Guterres, with Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis in a statement strongly hinting he should step down from his post.

    “Guterres must admit that he was wrong and take responsibility, both when he decided not to go to the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland and now, when he went to see the wanted war criminal Putin and grovelled with both him and his accomplice Lukashenko,” the Lithuanian top diplomat said.

    “Guterres is no longer accepted as an honest broker, and if he decides to resign, we would certainly not be the ones to discourage him from doing so.”

    The below moment also greatly outraged supporters of Ukraine…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The whole controversy comes at a moment of increasing chatter among diplomats over the need to find a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine war. Kiev fears that this will result in Ukraine permanently losing a huge chunk of its territory in the east, which Russian forces have captured.

    The UN and Guterres’ office framed his whole visit to the BRICS meeting and interactions with Putin as an “operational necessity” and part of diplomacy and peace-keeping.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 21:35

  • History Rhymes: Freedom From Fear
    History Rhymes: Freedom From Fear

    Authored by Jim Bovard via The Browstone Institute,

    “Freedom from fear” was a prime justification for many of the most oppressive Covid pandemic policies. As Georgetown University Law professor Lawrence Gostin declared in late 2021, “COVID-19 vaccines are a remarkable scientific tool that enables society to live in greater freedom and with less fear. Using every tool—including mandates—to achieve high vaccination coverage enhances freedom.” 

    While many Covid vaccine skeptics were astounded to see the intellectual contortions of mandate advocates, “freedom from fear” has been a favorite invocation of political charlatans for almost a century. Providing “freedom from fear” has become one of the most frequent political promises in this century. 

    Politicians routinely portray freedom from fear as the apex of freedom, higher than the specific freedoms buttressed by the Bill of Rights. While presidents have defined “freedom from fear” differently, the common thread is that it requires unleashing government agents. Reviewing almost a century of bipartisan invocations on freedom from fear provides good cause to doubt the next bombast on the subject. 

    “Freedom from fear” first entered the American political pantheon thanks to a January 1941 speech by President Franklin Roosevelt. In that State of the Union address, he promised citizens freedom of speech and freedom of worship—two cornerstones of the First Amendment—and then added socialist-style “freedom from want” and “freedom from fear.” FDR’s revised freedoms did not include freedom to dissent, since he said the government would need to take care of the “few slackers or trouble makers in our midst.”

    Nor did FDR’s improved freedoms include the freedom not to be rounded up for concentration camps, as FDR ordered for Japanese-Americans after Pearl Harbor. Three years later, FDR amended his definition of freedom by championing a Universal Conscription Act to entitle government to the forced labor of any citizen.

    Richard Nixon, in his acceptance speech at the 1968 Republican National Convention, promised, “We shall re-establish freedom from fear in America so that America can take the lead in re-establishing freedom from fear in the world.” Nixon asserted: “The first civil right of every American is to be free from domestic violence, and that right must be guaranteed in this country.”

    But with the Nixon scorecard, government violence didn’t count. He perpetuated the war in Vietnam, resulting in another 20,000 American soldiers pointlessly dying.  On the home front, he created the Drug Enforcement Administration and appointed the nation’s first drug czar. The FBI perpetuated its COINTELPRO program, carrying out “a secret war against those citizens it considers threats to the established order,” as a 1976 Senate report noted.

    President George H.W. Bush told the National Baptist Convention on September 8, 1989: “Today freedom from fear…means freedom from drugs.” To boost public fear, a DEA informant arranged for a knucklehead to sell crack cocaine to an undercover narc in Lafayette Park across from the White House. Bush invoked the sale a few days later to justify a national crackdown. Bush informed the American Legion: “Today I want to focus on one of those freedoms: freedom from fear—the fear of war abroad, the fear of drugs and crime at home. To win that freedom, to build a better and safer life, will require the bravery and sacrifice that Americans have shown before and must again.”

    Foremost among the sacrifices that Bush demanded was that of traditional liberties. His administration vastly expanded federal power to arbitrarily confiscate Americans’ property and boosted the role of the US military in domestic law enforcement. In a 1992 speech dedicating a new DEA office building, Bush declared, “I am delighted to be here to salute the greatest freedom fighters any nation could have, people who provide freedom from violence and freedom from drugs and freedom from fear.” The DEA’s own crime sprees, corruption, and violence were not permitted to impede Bush’s victory lap. 

    On May 12, 1994, President Bill Clinton declared: “Freedom from violence and freedom from fear are essential to maintaining not only personal freedom but a sense of community in this country.” Clinton banned so-called assault weapons and sought to ban 35 million semi-automatic firearms. Gun bans in response to high crime rates mean closing the barn door after the horse has escaped. Citizens would presumably have nothing to fear after they were forced to abjectly depend on government officials for their own survival. 

    In February 1996, Clinton, seeking conservative support for his reelection campaign, endorsed forcing children to wear uniforms at public schools. Clinton justified the fashion dictate: “Every one of us has an obligation to work together, to give our children freedom from fear and the freedom to learn.” But, if mandatory uniforms were the key to ending violence, Postal Service employees would have a lower homicide rate. 

    George W. Bush, like his father, alternated promising “freedom from fear” with shameless fear-mongering. Prior to Election Day 2004, the Bush administration continually issued terror attack warnings based on flimsy or no evidence. The New York Times derided the Bush administration in late October for having “turned the business of keeping Americans informed about the threat of terrorism into a politically scripted series of color-coded scare sessions.”

    Yet each time a terror alert was issued, the president’s approval rating rose temporarily by roughly three percent, according to a Cornell University study. The Cornell study found a “halo effect:” the more terrorists wanted to attack America, the better job Bush was supposedly doing. People who saw terrorism as the biggest issue in the 2004 election voted for Bush by a 6-to-1 margin. 

    The most memorable Bush campaign ad, released just before the election, opened in a thick forest, with shadows and hazy shots complementing the foreboding music. After vilifying Democratic candidate John Kerry, the ad showed a pack of wolves reclining in a clearing. The voiceover concluded, “And weakness attracts those who are waiting to do America harm” as the wolves began jumping up and running toward the camera. At the end of the ad, the president appeared and announced: “I’m George W. Bush and I approve this message.”

    One liberal cynic suggested that the ad’s message was that voters would be eaten by wolves if Kerry won. Pat Wendland, the manager of Wolves Offered Life and Friendship, a Colorado wolf refuge in Colorado, complained: “The comparison to terrorists was insulting. We have worked for years, teaching people that Little Red Riding Hood lied.”

    Bush’s campaign to terrify voters into granting him four more years to rule America did not deter him from announcing in his 2005 State of the Union address: “We will pass along to our children all the freedoms we enjoy, and chief among them is freedom from fear.” 

    In the 2020 presidential race, Democratic candidate Joe Biden personally blamed President Donald Trump for every one of the 220,000 Covid deaths in the nation. Biden had a simple promise based on a simple message: “People want to be safe.”  And the only way to survive was to put Uncle Joe in the White House and unleash him. 

    Biden ran one of the most fear-based presidential campaigns in modern history. Biden talked as if every American family had lost a member or two from this pestilence. He routinely exaggerated Covid death tolls a hundredfold or a thousandfold, publicly asserting that millions of Americans had already been killed by Covid-19. Biden was helped mightily by fear-mongering media coverage. CNN ramped up the fear with a Covid Death Counter always on the screen. But the death count was statistical garbage. Individuals who died of gunshot wounds were counted as Covid deaths if a postmortem showed any Covid trace.

    A Brookings Institution analysis noted: “Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to overestimate [Covid] harm. Forty-one percent of Democrats…answered that half or more of those infected by COVID-19 need to be hospitalized.” At that time, the rate of hospitalization was between 1% and 5%, but Democratic voters overestimated the risk up to twentyfold. A CNN exit poll found that the “recent rise in coronavirus cases” was the most important factor for 61% of Biden voters. Biden won the presidency as a result of only 43,000 votes in three swing states.

    In June 2021, Biden proclaimed that everyone must get a Covid vaccine so that America could have “freedom from fear.” He said that people should “exercise your freedom” to get vaccinated with a drug approved on an emergency basis six months earlier. He declared: “We need everyone across the country to pull together [i.e., submit] to get us over the finish line.” The following month, Biden promised that anyone who got the injection would not get or transmit Covid. After the government coverup of failing vaccine efficacy collapsed, far more people balked at getting the shot. Biden responded by dictating a “get the jab or lose your job” mandate for 100 million American adults. (The Supreme Court later struck down most of that mandate.) 

    “Freedom from fear” apparently requires maximizing hatred of anyone who fails to submit. In an October 2021 CNN town hall, Biden derided vaccine skeptics as murderers who only wanted “the freedom to kill you” with Covid. Biden continued to proclaim that Covid was an “epidemic of the unvaccinated” long after government data revealed that most individuals who caught Covid were vaccinated. NIH posted a 2022 article that blamed “fearmongering and scare tactics” by anti-vaccine activists for the reported adverse side effects of Covid vaccines.

    A 2022 Rasmussen poll found that 59% of Democratic voters favored house arrest for the unvaccinated, and 45% favored locking the unvaxxed into government detention facilities. Almost half of Democrats favored empowering government to “fine or imprison individuals who publicly question the efficacy of the existing Covid-19 vaccines on social media, television, radio, or in online or digital publications.”  A massive covert federal censorship regime was also deployed to suppress criticism of Covid policies or even jokes about Covid vaccines.

    For his reelection campaign, Biden milked “freedom from fear” in a Pennsylvania speech on what he labeled “the third anniversary of the Insurrection at the United States Capitol.” Biden planned to turn the November 2024 election into a referendum on Adolf Hitler, accusing Donald Trump of “echoing the same exact language used in Nazi Germany.” CNN reported that Biden campaign aides planned to go “full Hitler” on Trump. Biden spent half an hour fear-mongering and then closed by promising “freedom from fear.” This was the famous Biden two-step—demagoguing to his heart’s content and then closing with schmaltzy uplift lines, entitling the media to rechristen him as an idealist.

    Biden did not survive the Democrats’ version of the “Night of the Long Knives” and Vice President Kamala Harris was designated the party’s presidential flag-bearer. Harris painted with an even broader brush than Biden. At a Juneteenth Concert this summer, she condemned Republicans for a “a full-on attack” on “the freedom from fear of bigotry and hate.”

    Harris implied that politicians could wave a psychological magic wand to banish any bias in perpetuity.  How can anyone have “freedom from fear of bigotry” unless politicians perpetually control everyone’s thoughts?

    In August, the Democratic National Convention whooped up freedom in ways that would qualify as “authentic frontier gibberish,” as the 1974 movie Blazing Saddles would say. A campaign video promised “freedom from control, freedom from extremism and fear.” So Americans won’t have true freedom until politicians forcibly suppress any idea they label as immoderate? The Democratic Party platform warned: “Reproductive freedom, freedom from hate, freedom from fear, the freedom to control our own destinies and more are all on the line in this election.”

    But the whole point of politics nowadays is to preempt individuals from controlling their own destinies. Hillary Clinton told the convention crowd that, thanks to the cracks in the glass ceiling, she could see “freedom from fear and intimidation.” Hillary also boasted of seeing “freedom to make our own decisions about our health”—after everybody shuts up and gets Covid Booster #37, presumably. 

    “Freedom from fear” is the ultimate political blank check. The more people government frightens, the more legitimate dictatorial policies become.  Pledging “freedom from fear” entitles politicians to seize power over anything that frightens anyone. Giving politicians more power based on people’s fears is like giving firemen pay raises based on how many false alarms they report.

    Politicians’ promises of “freedom from fear” imply that freedom properly understood is a risk-free, worry-free condition. It is the type of promise that a mother would make to a young child. New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham epitomized that mindset when she proclaimed at the Democratic National Convention: “We need a president who can be Consoler-in-Chief. We need a president capable of holding us in a great big hug.” And continuing to hold us until we officially become psychological wards of the State?

    “Freedom from fear” offers freedom from everything except the government. Anyone who sounds the alarm about excessive government power will automatically be guilty of subverting freedom from fear. Presumably, the fewer inviolable rights the citizen has, the better government will treat him. But as John Locke warned more than 300 years ago, “I have no reason to suppose, that he, who would take away my Liberty, would not when he had me in his Power, take away everything else.”

    Why not simply offer voters “freedom from the Constitution?” “Freedom from fear” means security via mass delusions about the nature of political power. Painting the motto “freedom from fear” on shackles won’t make them easier to bear. Perhaps our ruling class should be honest and replace the Bill of Rights with a new motto: “Political buncombe will make you free.”

    An earlier version of this piece was published by the Libertarian Institute.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 21:00

  • Two Refineries That Produce 14% Of California's Gasoline Set To Close Due To "Regulatory Pressure"
    Two Refineries That Produce 14% Of California’s Gasoline Set To Close Due To “Regulatory Pressure”

    Today in how not to get gas prices down on the West Coast news, it was announced that California is on the precipice of losing two more major refineries that produce 14% of the state’s gasoline due to suffocating regulation.

    Valero may shut down its two California refineries, according to Just The News. 

    With existing closures already requiring California to import 8% of its supply, the state could soon face a greater dependence on refined imports, adding to its reliance on Middle Eastern and South American crude.

    Valero CEO Lane Riggs explained last week that profit margins are already low from its refinery business and says the company has already “minimized strategic [capital expenditures]”.

    He added that “California is increasing its regulatory pressure on the industry, so we’re really considering everything — all options are on the table.”

    The Just The News report says that although Riggs did not explicitly confirm plans to shut down refineries representing 14% of California’s capacity, state lawmakers raised alarms, linking potential closures to new regulatory powers granted during a special legislative session. 

    Phillips 66 recently announced the closure of its Los Angeles refinery, accounting for 8% of the state’s refining capacity, following the passage of the new legislation.

    California’s oil production has halved since 2008, dropping from 249 million barrels (38% of state needs) to 124 million barrels in 2023 (23.4% of needs). Imports have surged, with 61% now coming from countries like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, and Colombia, compared to 48.5% in 2008. 

    State Assemblymember Joe Patterson, R-Rocklin added on X: “When California Governor Gavin Newsom said in 2021 he didn’t see a future for oil in CA, I didn’t know 2024 would be the year he ended it at lightning speed.”

    “Today, another refiner said “all options are on table” with refineries here. We can thank Newsom’s legislation,” he concluded. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 20:25

  • The Battle For Space Is On
    The Battle For Space Is On

    Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Space has been called the final frontier and experts say governments are becoming more focused on strengthening defense and exploring the military potential of low Earth orbit.

    Evan Ellis, an analyst and research professor for the U.S. Army War College, told The Epoch Times that expanding and protecting space infrastructure is becoming increasingly important from a national security perspective.

    “It’s a recognition that space is important as a war-fighting domain, but also how you protect and use your assets in times of war,” Ellis said.

    As a defense analyst, Ellis has participated in space war game scenarios. He says there are multiple kinds of weapons that can be used in Earth’s orbit. Some are kinetic such as missiles, but non-kinetic weapons such as electromagnetic pulses, micro-waves, and lasers are also possible.

    He noted some are more practical in a space-to-space or space-to-Earth combat scenario than others. For example, lasers are less practical to have in a space-based platform since they would have energy supply and stability problems.

    “If you want to penetrate someone’s [ground] bunker, then it makes more sense to use kinetic weapons than a laser from space,” Ellis said.

    He said that targeting ground objects from space isn’t impossible, but it’s not a likely scenario. Instead, Ellis said it would be more pragmatic to hit other celestial targets.

    “It makes sense to have things in space that can take out other things in space.”

    National security lawyer and Scarab Rising president, Irina Tsukerman, said weapons don’t need to be put into space to be a threat to orbiting objects.

    “Countries like China and Russia have developed various ASAT [anti-satellite weapon] capabilities, including kinetic kill vehicles and electronic warfare systems, aimed at disabling or destroying U.S. satellites,” Tsukerman told The Epoch Times via text.

    Earth-based weapons with the ability to cripple or destroy satellites have existed for years. Yet with more countries investing in counter-space assets, worry over the possible use of ASATs as a wartime weapon is growing.

    “While destructive ASATs have not yet been deployed in warfare, countries such as Russia, India, China, and the United States have demonstrated their ability to operate such weapons by destroying their own satellites,” a 2024 Atlantic Council analysis states.

    “As countries’ reliance on space increases, the ability to hold other countries’ satellites at risk is a significant and concerning capability.”

    Investment in space from a national security perspective also grew this year.

    The Space Foundation reported that total global military space budgets increased 18 percent, representing 46 percent of total government space spending. The United States represents the majority of this at 80 percent, but countries like Japan and Poland have also drastically increased their space defense spending.

    An anti-satellite weapon “Mission Shakti” is displayed during the Republic Day parade in New Delhi, India, on Jan. 26, 2020. Prakash Singh/AFP via Getty Images

    There’s widespread concern over the weaponization of space, especially given current geopolitical tensions between the United States, Russia, and China.

    The United Nations’ Outer Space Treaty is a guardrail that has prohibited nuclear arms or weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) in orbit or on celestial bodies such as the moon since 1967. At the time of this report, the treaty has 115 parties and 89 signatories.

    However, groups such as the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation say increased militarization efforts in this domain already pose risks to national security.

    The center identifies three classifications of space weaponry, including Earth-to-space, space-to-space, and space-to-Earth. Currently, due to restrictions outlined in the Outer Space Treaty, only Earth-to-space weapons have been developed in military arsenals. However, some say growing interest in the latter two categories makes expansion into these areas inevitable.

    “Converging trends make the proliferation of space systems likely. The miniaturization of satellites combined with falling launch costs and the commercialization of the space industry means that more players are entering the space game—not all of whom will use space for peaceful purposes,” the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation stated in a 2023 fact sheet.

    The organization added that due to a lack of clear regulations and ambitious government regimes, militaries are already pushing the boundaries of acceptable space behavior.

    “This could mean greater chances of conflict in the future as outer space is increasingly congested with dangerous capabilities,” the group said.

    Within the three categories of space weaponry are four different types. The Center for Strategic and International Studies project Aerospace Security identifies these as kinetic physical, non-kinetic physical, electronic, and cyber.

    The 2024 Secure World Foundation report noted, “The growing use of, and reliance on, space for national security has also led more countries to look at developing their own counter-space capabilities that can be used to deceive, disrupt, deny, degrade, or destroy space systems.”

    This is underscored by a National Air and Space Intelligence Center report, which states, “Foreign competitors are integrating advanced space and counter-space technologies into warfighting strategies to challenge U.S. superiority and position themselves as space powers.”

    Pentagon officials maintain that a competitive edge in space weaponry is necessary for the United States because evidence suggests that Russia is looking to do the same.

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 19:50

  • Nvidia-Backed Tech Company Looking To Buy Land Near Nuclear Power In Japan
    Nvidia-Backed Tech Company Looking To Buy Land Near Nuclear Power In Japan

    Another day, another data center cozying up to nuclear power.

    This time its an Nvidia-backed company called Ubitus K.K., based in Tokyo. The company is looking to “acquire land in Kyoto, Shimane or a prefecture in Japan’s southern island of Kyushu, primarily because of the availability of nuclear power in the region”, according to a new report from Bloomberg. 

    Chief Executive Officer Wesley Kuo announced the plans in an interview on Thursday last week. The company already has two data centers used for gaming and is planning a third for AI. 

    Kuo commented: “Unless we have other, better, efficient and cheap energy, nuclear is still the most competitive option in terms of cost and the scale of supply. For industrial use — especially AI — they need a constant, high-capacity supply.”

    The Bloomberg report says that in Japan, nuclear power remains controversial due to the 2011 Fukushima disaster and strict post-disaster regulations, with only 33 reactors available, many still inactive.

    Recall, following the news of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant restart near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and the Biden administration supplying a $1.5 billion loan to resurrect Holtec’s Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan, along with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google all jumping on the nuclear trade via the “next AI trade,” the atomic era continued gaining steam last week with news that another dormant nuclear plant, this time in Iowa, is slated for a possible restart.

    On a Wednesday earnings call, NextEra Energy CEO John Ketchum told investors that the company may restart the shuttered 600-megawatt Duane Arnold Energy Center (DAEC), Iowa’s only nuclear power plant. It’s located on the west bank of the Cedar River, about eight miles northwest of Cedar Rapids. 

    The company said on its earnings call:

    “As a top operator of all forms of power generation, we often get asked about nuclear and gas,” Ketchum told investors. 

    He explained, “Let me start with nuclear. Nuclear will play a role, but there are some practical limitations. Remember, on a national level, we expect we are going to need to add 900 gigawatts of new generation to the grid by 2040,” adding, “There are only a few nuclear plants that can be recommissioned in an economic way. We are currently evaluating the recommissioning of our Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa as one example.” 

    The latest news from big tech firms diving into nuclear and reviving the industry provides a substantial tailwind for our “Next AI Trade” which we laid out in April as our long-term favorite trade, and where we outlined various investment opportunities for powering up America, playing out.

    Here’s our latest coverage of the big atomic revival:

    And for a trip down memory lane: take a step back to December 2020, nearly four years ago, when we first introduced the nuclear theme to readers with the headline: “Buy Uranium: Is This The Beginning Of The Next ESG Craze.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 19:15

  • Appeals Court Says Mississippi Law Allowing Ballots After Election Day Is Illegal
    Appeals Court Says Mississippi Law Allowing Ballots After Election Day Is Illegal

    Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit released an opinion on Oct. 25 stating that federal law requires mail-in ballots be counted no later than election day.

    Residents drop mail-in ballots in an official ballot box outside a library in Milwaukee on Oct. 20, 2020. Scott Olson/Getty Images

    In doing so, it ruled against a Mississippi law allowing ballots to be counted if they arrived no more than five days after the election and if they were postmarked on or before the date of the election.

    The opinion, which came less than two weeks before the 2024 elections, redirected the case back to the lower court while refraining from issuing an injunction that would halt Mississippi’s law.

    The policy was adopted during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the state kept it after the pandemic ended.

    “Because Mississippi’s statute allows ballot receipt up to five days after the federal election day, it is preempted by federal law,” Judge Andrew Oldham, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, wrote in his opinion for the court.

    RNC Chairman Michael Whatley called the decision on the social media platform X a “seismic win for fair, accurate, secure, and transparent elections.”

    Justifying the decision to throw the decision back to the lower court, rather than block Mississippi’s law, Oldham referenced a Supreme Court precedent that cautions against last-minute changes to election procedures.

    “Today’s decision says nothing about remedies,” he said. “We decline to grant plaintiffs’ initial request for a permanent injunction. … Instead, we remand to the district court for further proceedings to fashion appropriate relief, giving due consideration to ’the value of preserving the status quo in a voting case on the eve of an election.’”

    He was quoting another fifth circuit case but also referenced the Supreme Court’s 2006 decision in Purcell v. Gonzalez.

    Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson had told the Fifth Circuit that an election was voters’ “conclusive choice of an officeholder,” which took place on election day.

    “That is so even if election officials do not receive those ballots until after election day,” his brief to the court read. “An election does not itself require ballot receipt.”

    Oldham and two other Trump appointees, Judge James Ho and Judge Kyle Duncan, heard oral arguments over the issue in September. The Republican National Committee (RNC) had appealed the decision of a lower court that ruled in favor of Mississippi.

    Oldham reasoned that the Constitution granted Congress authority over elections through two provisions, including one that allows Congress to alter the timing of federal elections hosted by states.

    Oldham drew a distinction between the timing of ballot counting and ballot casting.

    “Even if the ballots have not been counted, the result is fixed when all of the ballots are received and the proverbial ballot box is closed,” he wrote. “The selections are done and final.”

    Mississippi’s “problem,” he said, “is that it thinks a ballot can be ‘cast’ before it is received.” He added that “[a] voter’s selection of a candidate differs from the public’s election of the candidate.”

    Mississippi is one of several states with laws allowing mailed ballots to be counted if they are postmarked by Election Day, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. The list includes swing states such as Nevada and states such as Colorado, Oregon, and Utah that rely heavily on mail voting.

    In July, a federal judge dismissed a similar lawsuit in Nevada. The Republican National Committee is asking the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals to revive that case.

    The RNC previously told The Epoch Times that it was involved in more than 130 lawsuits across 26 states. States have also pursued their own efforts while coming up against challenges from outside parties, including the Justice Department (DOJ).

    Oldham’s opinion came on the same day that a federal judge granted the DOJ’s request to halt Virginia’s program for purging non-citizens from voter rolls.

    Federal Judge Patricia Giles held that the program was within a prohibited 90-day timeframe set up by the National Voter Registration Act, a federal law passed by Congress in 1993. Another federal judge in Alabama similarly blocked the state’s program to purge non-citizens from its rolls.

    The Associated Press contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 18:40

  • Army Releases Redacted Report On Incident During Trump Visit To Arlington Cemetery
    Army Releases Redacted Report On Incident During Trump Visit To Arlington Cemetery

    Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The U.S. Army on Friday released a heavily redacted report related to an alleged altercation during former President Donald Trump’s visit to Arlington National Cemetery in August.

    According to multiple reports, on Aug. 26 a cemetery staffer attempted to block the Trump campaign from taking photos and videos in Section 60, where soldiers recently killed in Afghanistan and Iraq are buried. A U.S. Army statement at the time said the employee was “abruptly pushed aside.”

    Former President Donald Trump lays a wreath alongside Marine Cpl. Kelsee Lainhart (Ret.) and U.S. Marine Corps Sgt. Tyler Vargas-Andrews (Ret.), who were injured at the Abbey Gate Bombing in Afghanistan, during a ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Arlington, Va., on Aug. 26. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

    Trump was there to mark the anniversary of the Kabul airport attack that killed 13 U.S. service members.

    Seven pages of redacted material were released in response to a Freedom of Information Act request filed by the Washington-based nonprofit group American Oversight as part of an ongoing lawsuit.

    The redacted incident report classifies the alleged offense as “simple assault.” It outlines an alleged physical altercation between a cemetery employee and Trump aides.

    A brief description says that an individual engaged “with both of [redacted] hands while attempting to move past [redacted] did not require medical attention on scene and later refused when offered. [Redacted] rendered a sworn statement on a DA Form 2823 and stated [redacted] did not want to press charges. Investigation continues by JBMHH PD Investigations Branch.”

    The sworn statement of the incident, made at 1:45 p.m. on Aug. 26, is fully redacted.

    In response to reports detailing the incident that cited anonymous sources, the Trump campaign issued a statement accusing the cemetery employee of experiencing a “mental health episode” and attempting to “physically block members of President Trump’s team during a very solemn ceremony.”

    The Army defended the employee, noting they acted “with professionalism” in enforcing regulations that prohibit political activities on cemetery grounds. Officials stated that while the incident was reported to law enforcement, the employee ultimately chose not to pursue charges.

    The Army confirmed that it “considers this matter closed,” concluding that the staff member’s actions were appropriate and consistent with cemetery decorum.

    U.S. District Court of the District of Columbia Senior Judge Paul Friedman signed an order on Oct. 22 for the report to be released. In September, American Oversight, arguing that there was a compelling public interest in sharing information with the public as soon as possible, requested that Arlington expedite the processing of its request, noting the presidential election is drawing closer.

    American Oversight was founded in 2017 in response to what it says were the “unprecedented challenges that the Trump administration posed to our nation’s democratic ideals and institutions.”

    Friedman ruled on Oct. 22 that the Army must release nonexempt portions of records about the requested incident on or before Oct. 25.

    “With the election just two weeks away, the American people have a clear and compelling interest in knowing how the government responded to an alleged incident involving a major presidential candidate who has a history of politicizing the military,” Chioma Chukwu, American Oversight’s interim executive director, said in a statement following Friedman’s order.

    After the initial incident, an Arlington National Cemetery spokesperson told The Epoch Times that a report had been filed but provided no further details, citing laws against political campaign or election-related activities in military cemeteries.

    The Trump campaign disputed reports of a “physical altercation,” asserting they were prepared to release footage to counter any “defamatory claims.” Spokesperson Steven Cheung stated that a private photographer was permitted on the grounds and that an individual, allegedly experiencing a mental health episode, tried to block Trump’s team during the ceremony.

    Family members of fallen soldiers in Afghanistan also denied claims of an assault, stating no altercation took place.

    The U.S. Army oversees the management of Arlington National Cemetery.

    Katabella Roberts contributed to this report.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 17:30

  • Russia Reportedly Supplied GEOINT Data For Houthi Assaults On Western Ships In Maritime Chokepoint
    Russia Reportedly Supplied GEOINT Data For Houthi Assaults On Western Ships In Maritime Chokepoint

    In the Middle East, Russian intelligence officials have allegedly provided Iran-backed Houthi rebels with geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) data for strategic planning and operational decision-making to attack Western vessels in the critical maritime chokepoint of the southern Red Sea. 

    According to The Wall Street Journal report: 

    The Houthis, which began their attacks late last year over the Gaza war, eventually began using Russian satellite data as they expanded their strikes, said a person familiar with the matter and two European defense officials. The data was passed through members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who were embedded with the Houthis in Yemen, one of the people said.

    There was no mention of specifics about the GEOINT data Russia provided IRGC/Houthis for attack and reconnaissance missions in southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Besides satellite imagery, there was no word if the Russians and/or IRGC used unmanned aerial vehicles to provide Houthis with high-resolution imagery and/or real-time data streams to track commercial vessels or western warships – or use the streams for weapon guidance. 

    Alleged Russian assistance may explain how the Houthis have expanded their threat coverage of missiles and drone attacks across the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Since November 2023, Houthis have hit more than 100 ships in the region, sinking two and hijacking another. 

    Source: WSJ

    “In the Middle East, the Russian assistance underscores a tectonic shift in its strategy. Putin has strengthened ties with Iran, while turning a cold shoulder to his longstanding relationship with Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” WSJ noted. 

    Weak foreign policy emanating from the Biden-Harris administration has left the Middle East in flames. Not being tough on Houthis to ensure freedom of navigation in the critical maritime chokepoint has sparked major supply chain snarls in global shipping, as container ships diverted by the hundreds around the Cape of Good Hope, straining container supplies and thus boosting shipping costs. 

    It’s interesting seeing Democrats who once warned that former President Trump would bring the world to the brink of nuclear disaster, yet under Biden and Harris, the world is closer than ever to World War III: Wars spiraling out of control in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, while China could take Taiwan at any moment. The US needs a strong leader – not weak – not Marxist woke. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 16:55

  • Peter Schiff: Gold Is Exposing The Phony Economy
    Peter Schiff: Gold Is Exposing The Phony Economy

    Via SchiffGold.com,

    On this week’s episode, Peter covered a record setting week for gold and a stellar week for silver. With the metals nearly cresting $2800 and $35, respectively, Peter sees this price action as confirmation that the Fed’s recent rate cuts are a mistake. Politicians may love inflation, and the media is oblivious, but the metals markets know that America’s economic trajectory is unsustainable.

    As Peter predicted, long-term interest rates are rising. Even though rate cuts are traditionally considered bearish for gold, gold is consistently reaching new highs and perplexing the media class:

    “I said that when the Fed cuts short-term rates, that’s going to be the bottom for long-term rates, and they’re going to go up. And that’s exactly what’s happening. Long-term rates and gold prices are rising in tandem, which is the opposite of what most people think. They believe higher interest rates are bearish for gold, but gold is going up anyway. The mainstream financial media didn’t expect this. They thought when the Fed cut short-term rates, long-term rates would follow instead of going in the opposite direction.”

    Why is this? The dollar is condemned to a future of continuous devaluation, and gold is the best hedge against de-dollarization. 

    “We still have a weak economy. That’s not why rates are rising. Rates are rising for the same reason the gold price is rising. It’s because the Fed’s rate cuts are a mistake. The inflation genie is not back in the bottle. We’re going to have rising inflation. We’re going to have skyrocketing fiscal deficits, so bigger budget deficits. We’re going to have more supply of treasuries hitting the market, which, as I’ve said, are going to be monetized.”

    Peter likens gold’s moves to the pre-2008 era, when the media and financial pundits were unaware of future inflation:

    “They didn’t care about gold when it was $495 an ounce. And now that it’s $2,750 an ounce, they still don’t care about it because they have no idea what it means, or if they do, they certainly don’t want their audience to figure it out. … But when the Fed showed its hand and announced QE, gold took off. Initially, people— not just me— there was a chorus of people saying, ‘This is terrible, this is going to be massive inflation. You’ve got to buy gold.”

    He reminds us that inflation is an intentional policy choice that benefits the political class at the expense of consumers:

    “It’s a meltdown that’s being disguised by inflation. Again, that’s one of the reasons politicians like inflation because people feel like they’re richer. Their stock portfolios are going up. They’re getting a raise. And so they think things are good because the numbers are bigger, but it’s all an illusion. They’re actually getting poorer while they think they’re getting richer. That is what the politicians want.”

    The problem with inflationary policy is that it can’t last forever, and when it fails, the government will be forced to either default or fire up the money printers. So far, politicians are opting to print away their problems:

    “There’s two ways our creditors are going to lose. One is through an honest default where they get fewer dollars. The other is through inflation where they get all their dollars, but they have less purchasing power.”

    Turning to the approaching election, Peter is cautiously optimistic about a Trump presidency. At best, Trump will attempt to reign in government spending, and even at his worst, he’ll be better than Kamala Harris:

    “We’re going to have a crisis regardless of the outcome of this election. I would just rather have Trump’s team in office when it happens than the Harris team. Not that I’m 100% confident that the Trump team is going to do the right thing; I’m just 100% confident that the Harris team is going to do the wrong thing. So that’s basically where we are, right? And so we have to take the lesser of the evils and hope for the best with Trump.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 16:20

  • Will Democrats Accept the Results of the 2024 Presidential Election?
    Will Democrats Accept the Results of the 2024 Presidential Election?

    Authored by Richard Truesdell and Keith Lehmann via American Greatness,

    Picture this scenario on November 6: the American presidential election has taken place, and Donald Trump is the winner with well over 300 Electoral College votes, legitimately and decisively beating Kamala Harris. Democrats are in an uproar, making wild claims of election interference from foreign entities like Russia just like in 2016, and threatening to block certification of the election unless their candidate of choice is installed.

    By attempting to nullify the votes of over half of the country, Democrats have chosen to wage war against Americans who don’t agree with them. It is their last-ditch effort to cling to power and they don’t care what damage is done to the country in the process. The damage done, in fact, is part of the plan.

    An army of lawyers from both sides is being deployed across the nation in anticipation of massive voter fraud, similar to what went on during the 2020 election. While Republicans are out there to identify and prevent the fraud, Democrats are obfuscating and concealing their efforts to count ballots multiple times, stop the rejection of invalid ballots, and keep objective observers from reporting on the mishandling of ballots by those intent on committing election fraud. Democrats are actually working to allow non-citizens to vote.

    So-called fact-checkers point out that this only applies to local and state elections, not federal elections. Don’t fall for this misdirection. Why have Democrats, from Joe Biden on down, pushed so hard to allow non-citizens to vote? Once voting by non-citizens in local and state elections is legitimized, America as we have known it for more than 240 years will no longer exist.

    All this will be followed by escalating the lawfare against Trump with possible prison sentencing between the election and inauguration in one or more of the criminal cases he faces.

    It is especially true with the Jack Smith case in D.C., which is a blatant, partisan case of election interference. We are convinced that all of the cases against Trump will ultimately be dismissed on appeal as they have no legitimate basis; however, the Democrats will push forward anyway as they have no concern over what legal precedence they are setting, nor do they care about the damage they’re doing to the institution of Congress. It’s all about holding power.

    Democrats in Congress with stage-four Trump Derangement Syndrome, especially the clown-like Jamie Raskin (D-MD), have already said the quiet part out loud. Raskin says if Trump should win, combining an Electoral College win even with a potential popular vote victory (which current polls are showing), they will immediately challenge the results under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, tying up the election results beyond January 20, 2025. These Democrats will stop at nothing to destroy America by invoking a second Civil War (Raskin’s own words) if necessary.

    Can you imagine the chaos and damage a lame-duck Biden-Harris administration can inflict on the United States between Election Day and Trump’s second inauguration on January 20, 2025? With executive orders coming from an increasingly infirm and vengeful Joe Biden (with help from Dr. Jill and his puppet masters like Barack Obama and even Nancy Pelosi, who forced Biden to abandon his reelection bid under threat of invoking the 25th Amendment). These are people who will do anything to retain power, including preventing Trump from taking the oath of office.

    Democrats have become everything they have accused Trump of intending to do. In his first term, Trump took no action to lock up Hillary Clinton, who is now out promoting her third memoir, Something Lost, Something Gained (a title that lacks even a basic sense of self-awareness as it heads to the $5.95 remainder racks, hopefully by Christmas). Will she ever stop relitigating the results of the 2016 election?

    At some point, the Supreme Court will be forced to step in, possibly on an emergency basis, to save our democracy from Democrats and their Deep State political thugs who will refuse to participate in the peaceful transfer of power. It’s the ultimate example of projection.

    It’s a sad state of affairs but one that can be remedied in the future if we reinstate integrity in our election systems. That is, making sure that the people’s votes actually count and are not manipulated by loosening rules to satisfy those who would cheat in order to attain or keep power. Every illegitimate vote cancels out a legitimate vote.

    Election integrity starts with requiring photo identification. Thirty-six states require photo ID; 14 states and the District of Columbia don’t.

    If we can require photo ID to buy a pack of cigarettes or a beer in a bar, or a driver’s license to operate a motor vehicle, we can require it to exercise our most sacred right to vote. It doesn’t disenfranchise anyone except those not eligible to vote, like immigrants who entered the United States illegally and lack proper identification. Requiring proof of identity does not make it harder to vote; it makes it harder to cheat.

    With some degree of integrity restored to America’s election process, the people’s legitimate voices will be heard loud and clear. This will deliver the presidency back to Donald Trump with a clear mandate to “drain the swamp” that is Washington, D.C.

    Once Trump returns to the White House in 2025, with no worry about a reelection bid in 2028, he can complete the house cleaning he started when he took office in 2017. It will be the best lame duck presidency in American history.

    Trump can remove the unelected political appointees running the alphabet agencies (starting with the FBI, the CIA, and especially the NSA) as well as the leadership class in the military. Today we have 44 four-star generals—there are no current five-star generals or admirals since the passing of Omar Bradley in 1981—commanding 2.86 million members in the military as opposed to during World War Two when 16 million men were under arms being commanded by just four five-star generals and admirals. Including the military, those bureaucracies must be completely dismantled and rebuilt from the ground up by individuals who care about America, not an administrative state that cares only about amassing personal power.

    Now is the time to make Election Day a national holiday and to require day-of and in-person voting across the nation with the results known the following day. Reasonable exceptions can be made for members serving in the military and true hardship cases.

    Going forward for the next presidential election (it’s too late for this year’s presidential election), to ensure election integrity, absentee ballots will need to be submitted, along with proper identification, no later than November 1, 2028, so they can be counted in advance of Election Day in 2028.

    If we can politically pander to a small segment of the population by making Juneteenth a national holiday, we can certainly benefit all citizens by having Election Day nationalized. Our democracy deserves nothing less.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 15:10

  • Where's Tony? These Are All The Countries Visited The US Secretary Of State Since 2021
    Where’s Tony? These Are All The Countries Visited The US Secretary Of State Since 2021

    As the world’s largest economy, military power, and a major cultural force, the U.S. has been the dominant global hegemon since the Berlin Wall fell in 1990.

    Its foreign policy plays a key role in shaping geopolitics. Despite the complexity of international relations, we can see where the U.S. prioritizes its influence by analyzing the data.

    This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao, shows the countries U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has visited most since his term started in January 2021. Data is sourced from the State Department, last updated on September 27th, 2024.

    All the Countries Secretary Blinken Has Visited At Least Five Times

    Secretary Blinken has visited Israel 18 times during his term—by far the most for any one country.

    Ten of those visits have taken place since October 2023, following Hamas attacks which killed nearly 1,000 Israeli civilians.

    In the year since the area has devolved into a major conflict zone. Israel has repeatedly bombed the Gaza strip, leading to the death of over 43,000 Palestinians, of which more than one-fourth are children.

    Retaliatory rocket launches from Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis have, in turn, led to Israeli airstrikes hitting Lebanon and Yemen.

    Meanwhile, Secretary Blinken has visited both Qatar and Egypt nine times so far—two other mediators in the war. He’s also been to Saudi Arabia: part of a longer-term plan to normalize relations between the House of Saud and Israel.

    Finally, Blinken has visited the West Bank four times—most recently to reiterate U.S. support for a Palestinian state.

    These visits to the Middle East stand in sharp contrast to Ukraine, where Secretary Blinken has made just five trips, also in a show of American support as the country battles a Russian invasion.

    The Middle East currently has a concentration of multiple rival military powers. Check out the Biggest Armies in the Middle East for a breakdown.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 14:35

  • Trump, Former White House Staffers Reject John Kelly's "Fascist" Claims
    Trump, Former White House Staffers Reject John Kelly’s “Fascist” Claims

    Authored by TJ Muscaro and Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

    Former President Donald Trump and previous members of his administration say that claims made by former White House Chief of Staff John Kelly are “patently false.”

    Kelly, a retired Marine Corps general, worked for the Trump administration from 2017 to 2019. He has spoken out multiple times against Trump during the election—most recently in interviews with The New York Times and The Atlantic.

    In those interviews, Kelly said Trump fitted the general definition of a fascist and alleged that the former president said he wanted “German generals,” like Nazi leader Adolph Hitler had.

    Several members of the Trump administration, including former Vice President Mike Pence’s former chief of staff, Mike Ayers, have sharply disputed the claims.

    “I’ve avoided commenting on intra-staff leaks or rumors or even lies as it relates to my time at the White House but General Kelly’s comments regarding President Trump are too egregious to ignore,” Ayers said on X.

    “I was with each of them more than most, and his commentary is *patently false.*”

    Mark Paoletta, general counsel of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), also spoke out against Kelly, writing on X:

    “I don’t believe a word he says. He was a terrible chief of staff who dishonestly kept information from the President to pursue his own agenda.”

    Trump himself denounced the stories on Oct. 23, saying Kelly “made up a story out of pure Trump Derangement Syndrome Hatred.”

    “Even though I shouldn’t be wasting my time with him, I always feel it’s necessary to hit back in pursuit of THE TRUTH,” Trump said on Truth Social and X.

    Both of Kelly’s interviews came out less than two weeks before Election Day, at a time when early voting is underway across several states, and Trump is starting to take the lead in battleground state polls.

    Vice President Kamala Harris followed Kelly’s two stories by stating at a CNN town hall that she believed Trump to be a fascist.

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. responded directly to these comments on X, saying, “This is the kind of inflammatory poison that divides our nation and inspires assassins.”

    The Atlantic also claimed Trump made disparaging remarks about a dead military servicemember and balked over her funeral expenses.

    At a news conference in Austin, Texas, on Oct. 25, the former president also strongly denied making those claims.

    “If they didn’t get the military funding, I was going to fund it myself,” Trump said about the funeral for Vanessa Guillen, 20, who was murdered in 2020 while stationed at an Army base in Texas that was then called Fort Hood.

    Guillen’s slaying and dismemberment led to an outcry over sexual harassment at U.S. military bases, resulting in changes to laws and discipline of 21 Army personnel; some were faulted for allowing the prime suspect in her killing to escape and commit suicide.

    On Friday, Trump thanked Guillen’s family for publicly denouncing The Atlantic’s allegations. The family came to show support for Trump as he addressed reporters at Million Air Austin, a private airplane service.

    “The beautiful thing is that these people [Guillen’s relatives] were willing to come out and say it didn’t happen… they didn’t have to do this,” Trump said.

    Guillen’s sister, Maya Guillen, and the family’s attorney, Natalie Khawam, made social media posts and TV appearances asserting that the article contained inaccuracies and misrepresentations.

    Trump pointed out that the Atlantic’s article was timed to appear just before the Nov. 5 election, increasing the likelihood that a certain percentage of readers would believe what the magazine reported and hold it against his candidacy.

    “So I talk about it because it was a terrible thing,” Trump said about the article after touching on multiple other topics, including illegal immigration and election integrity.

    The Epoch Times has sought comment from The Atlantic.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 14:00

  • These States Have The Biggest Beer-Drinkers
    These States Have The Biggest Beer-Drinkers

    From backyard barbecues to Sunday night football, beer is deeply woven in the fabric of American culture. It’s the choice alcoholic beverage for North and South Americans, according to WHO data.

    This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, visualizes the annual per capita ethanol consumption of beer in gallons in 2022 by U.S. state. The data comes from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA), which measures alcohol consumption in ethanol volume.

    For reference, the average six-pack of beer has 0.025 gallons of ethanol.

    Consumption figures only include residents age 14 or older, and is based on alcoholic beverage sales data collected by the Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System (AEDS), the National Alcohol Beverage Control Association, and from various reports produced by beverage industry sources.

    Which States Consume The Most Beer?

    Below, we show each state’s annual per capita ethanol consumption of beer in gallons in 2022.

    Rank State Per capita ethanol consumption in gallons of beer
    1 New Hampshire 1.66
    2 Montana 1.58
    3 Vermont 1.54
    4 North Dakota 1.38
    5 Pennsylvania 1.33
    6 Nevada 1.30
    7 Maine 1.28
    8 South Dakota 1.26
    9 Louisiana 1.24
    10 Hawaii 1.23
    11 Oregon 1.21
    12 Wyoming 1.2.0
    13 Wisconsin 1.19
    14 Iowa 1.18
    15 New Mexico 1.17
    16 Texas 1.15
    17 Mississippi 1.14
    18 Colorado 1.13
    19 District of Columbia 1.13
    20 California 1.10
    21 West Virginia 1.10
    22 Nebraska 1.09
    23 Ohio 1.07
    24 Kansas 1.06
    25 Minnesota 1.06
    26 Delaware 1.05
    27 Florida 1.04
    28 Missouri 1.04
    29 Arizona 1.03
    30 North Carolina 1.03
    31 Tennessee 1.01
    32 Illinois 1.00
    33 South Carolina 1.00
    34 Alaska 0.99
    35 Alabama 0.95
    36 Indiana 0.95
    37 Oklahoma 0.94
    38 Michigan 0.93
    39 Arkansas 0.92
    40 Kentucky 0.92
    41 Georgia 0.89
    42 Virginia 0.89
    43 Washington 0.84
    44 New York 0.83
    45 Massachusetts 0.80
    46 Idaho 0.74
    47 New Jersey 0.74
    48 Rhode Island 0.74
    49 Connecticut 0.72
    50 Maryland 0.63
    51 Utah 0.50

    Northeastern states, particularly New Hampshire (1.66 gallons) and Vermont (1.58 gallons) have some of the highest beer consumption rates in the country.

    New Hampshire doesn’t have state sales tax, making alcohol prices considerably lower than neighboring states. This likely drives higher alcohol sales rather than necessarily higher consumption.

    More than half of sales at New Hampshire liquor states come from out-of-state customers, according to the New Hampshire Liquor Commission.

    Many of its state-owned liquor states are also strategically located near state borders.

    When comparing global per capita consumption, European countries far outdrink the U.S. when it comes to beer.

    As a whole, the beer industry in America is experiencing a decline. U.S. beer shipments reached their lowest level in 25 years, according to data from the Beer Marketer’s Insights.

    The small and independent brewers’ industry in the U.S. is also experiencing a decline, with overall beer production and imports down 5% in 2023, and craft brewer sales down 1%, according to the Brewers Association.

    To learn more about beer consumption worldwide, check out this graphic that shows which countries drink the most beer according to Kirin Holdings.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 13:25

  • Iran Says Four Soldiers Were Killed In Israeli Attack Involving 100 Warplanes
    Iran Says Four Soldiers Were Killed In Israeli Attack Involving 100 Warplanes

    Update(1320ET): Iranian sources are confirming some of the first known deaths from the overnight Israeli airstrikes on the Islamic Republic, which focused on missile and military sites, and not nuclear or oil facilities.

    Four members of the Iranian army have been reported killed. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has also issued a fresh statement Saturday, warning there are “no limits” when it comes to defending the country. Israel too is warning against a potential Iranian counterstrike, but for now the quite limited Israeli operation is over and the situation looks contained in terms of avoiding bigger regional war.

    United Nations chief Antonio Guterres says he’s “deeply alarmed” by the overnight strikes, and is urging “maximum efforts to prevent an all-out regional war and return to the path of diplomacy.” And President Biden has expressed hope that “this is the end” following the Israeli strikes on Iran in a Saturday statement.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    * * *

    The Israeli ‘retaliation’ attack against Iran, which occurred in the overnight and early morning hours, appears to be complete, with Israel’s military (IDF) having declared the response “concluded” after locations in three provinces of the Islamic Republic were hit.

    Some 100 Israeli warplanes were sent, primarily across Jordanian airspace, for the unprecedented attack which reportedly included strikes on key missile, drone, and other military sites – including air defense installations. However, Iranians are mocking it as if it didn’t even happen, and there’s an emerging consensus among Western pundits that this was remarkably limited in scale. The attack did not involve Iranian nuclear or oil sites, according to Israeli military officials.

    Where are the Israeli strikes? Iranians look over the capital after explosions were heard, via Reuters

    IDF Spokesman, Daniel Hagari, said overnight – following at least two or three waves of attacks – “I can now confirm that we have concluded the Israeli response to Iran’s attack against Israel. We conducted targeted and precise strikes on military targets in Iran, thwarting immediate threats to the State of Israel.”

    And Hagari’s words concluded with the threat of new major escalation if Iran decides to respond militarily, “If the regime in Iran were to make the mistake of beginning a new round of escalation, we will be obligated to respond. All those who threaten the State of Israel and seek to drag the region into wider escalation will pay a heavy price.”

    Local reports of explosions near Tehran emerged at around 2:15 local time, with strikes later being reported also in the Karaj, Isfahan and Shiraz areas. Israel’s military said it hit around 20 sites over the several hours across the three provinces.

    “If the regime in Iran were to make the mistake of beginning a new round of escalation, we will be obligated to respond,” the Israeli military said.

    Israeli media indicated that while the first wave of warplanes took out anti-air defense sites, follow-up waves targeted ballistic missile and drone manufacturing facilities, as well as launch sites. Israeli officials say the operation sought to degrade Iran’s capability to launch another attack such as occurred on April 14 and October 1.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The operation was declared complete within a few hours of reports of initial explosions: 

    The Israeli military said at 6 a.m. that the assault had been completed, with “all goals achieved” and all aircraft returning safely home. It dubbed the campaign “Days of Repentance,” a reference to the recent Yom Kippur holiday. It said dozens of IAF aircraft, including fighter jets, refuelers and spy planes, participated in the “complex” operation some 1,600 kilometers from Israel.

    Iran has only confirmed that “limited damage” resulted at some bases and asserted that its air defenses countered many of the attacks, a narrative which has been rejected by Israel.

    Israel’s air force touted that it gave it pilots “wider freedom of aerial action in Iran” – and yet still the whole operation looked significantly less intense than Iran’s Oct. 1st attack on Israel.

    Handout photo of PM Netanyahu meeting with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and IDF commanders in the bunker below the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv.

    The reality is that air-to-surface missiles, which Israel focused on in its assault, don’t tend to be as destructive or as large in impact compared to ballistic missiles. It remains that Israel’s surface-to-surface ballistic missile capabilities are not as established as its air-launched capabilities.

    There are vague reports out of Syria that some locations inside the country were hit during the broader Iran assault, and possibly including sites in Iraq as well.

    Some pro-Iran and pro-Syria accounts mocked the quite limited attack, calling it a “nothingburger” as it unfolded, or else saying the Israelis merely started some brush fires 1,000 miles away in Iran.

    Iranian social media accounts are widely mocking the Israeli operation:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Iranian state TV reported at one point that “The loud blasts heard around Tehran were related to the activation of the air defense system against the actions of Zionist regime which attacked three locations outside of Tehran city.”

    However, an Israeli official told Ynet news that the Iranian claim of interception was “a lie. It was a total failure, [there were] zero interceptions“—as reported in Times of Israel.

    While radar shows that airspace was totally cleared over the Islamic Republic, state media still tried to claim that the country’s main international airports, including in Tehran, were operating as normal.

    Via Flightradar24 website, early on October 26, 2024, displaying commercial flights around Iran’s airspace during Israeli strikes. AFP

    The Quincy Institute’s Trita Parsi comments as follows…

    The Israeli attack is over, but the outcome remains unclear. Tehran is downplaying it – even mocking it – which may be more reflective of their desire to de-escalate than a true assessment of the damage Israel inflicted on Iran. Just as Israel kept the damage of Iran’s Oct 1 strikes secret, Iran will likely not disclose the full picture of Israel’s strike. But if Iran chooses to exercise restraint, as it did after Israel’s limited strikes in April, then this chapter may be closed, yet the conflict will remain very much alive.

    A prominent pro-“resistance axis” account on X, Hadi Nasrallah, had this to say: “So, after Iran totally roasted Israel’s military bases and airports putting them on blast in front of the whole world, Israel thought it’d be badass to send some pops to Tehran, like that’s gonna distract us from their their crushing losses in Lebanon a day before.”

    On Saturday, Iranian state media is full of headlines outright mocking the somewhat muted Israeli attack…

    Indeed, it seems that after taking this long to telegraph its response well over three weeks since Oct.1st, Israel’s attack was more about theater than inflicting real and lasting damage on Iran. This was as many expected by design, appearing to really be all about sending a message while seeking to carefully avoid escalation. There are even reports saying that Israel notified Tehran ahead of time of the impending strikes, saying the Iranians must not hit back. The hawks are surely disappointed.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 13:20

  • Have We Ever Seen A Time When 4 Major Global Wars Are All Percolating Simultaneously?
    Have We Ever Seen A Time When 4 Major Global Wars Are All Percolating Simultaneously?

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    We have reached a moment in history that none of us will forget.  We are literally standing on the precipice of the unthinkable, and most people don’t even realize it.  Of course horrific wars have a way of erupting when most people are not expecting them.  Hardly anyone expected a global war to erupt in 1914, but then tens of millions of precious souls died over the next four years.  Hardly anyone expected a global war to erupt in 1939, but then tens of millions of precious souls died over the next six years.  This time around, what is happening should be glaringly obvious to everyone.  Personally, I have been specifically warning about what is taking place right now for more than a decade.  If we do not change course, billions of precious souls could die during the nightmarish global wars that are rapidly approaching.

    At this moment, most Americans have no idea that a war between the United States and China is coming.

    Just a few days ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping boldly talked about “preparation for war” as he was dressed in military fatigues…

    On Thursday Chinese Communist Dictator Xi Jinping commanded troops to strengthen their preparedness for war while visiting his People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force following last week’s drills of surrounding the sovereign country of Taiwan.

    “Xi said the military should ‘comprehensively strengthen training and preparation for war, (and) ensure troops have solid combat capabilities,’ CCTV reported,” according to the AFP and reported on Barrons Saturday.

    Why would China need to prepare for war?

    Needless to say, nobody is planning to attack China.

    The truth is that the only reason that China would need to prepare for war is if it was planning to invade Taiwan.

    Because the moment that China invades Taiwan, the U.S. and China will be at war.

    In recent days, the Chinese have been getting very aggressive with Taiwan…

    On Monday, Beijing had deployed fighter jets, drones, warships and coast guard vessels to encircle Taiwan — its fourth round of large-scale war games around the democratic island in just over two years.

    China’s communist leaders have insisted they will not rule out using force to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control.

    Meanwhile, western leaders continue to publicly discuss sending NATO troops to Ukraine.

    The latest example of this came from the foreign minister of Lithuania…

    The Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said in a statement to Politico on Monday that European Union countries should return to the idea of putting boots-on-the-ground in Ukraine to fight Russia.

    The idea comes after French President Emmanuel Macron said in February that sending Western troops to Ukraine is not ‘ruled out’ for the future plans in war against Russia, according to the AP. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz shut down that plan for the time being however.

    “If information about Russia’s killing squads being equipped with North Korean ammunition and military personnel is confirmed, we have to get back to ‘boots on the ground’ and other ideas proposed by [French President] Emmanuel Macron,” he said in written comments, Politico reported on Monday.

    One of the reasons why this has came up again is because there are reports that soldiers from North Korea are being equipped and sent to fight for Russia on the front lines of eastern Ukraine…

    North Korean soldiers have been filmed receiving uniforms and equipment at a training ground in Russia’s far east, appearing to confirm reports from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) that 1,500 soldiers have been shipped over for military training to be deployed in Ukraine.

    The North Korean troops are thought to be receiving training before being sent to the front line in Ukraine, in what is thought to be a clear sign of the ever-warming relations between Moscow and Pyongyang.

    Both sides just continue to escalate matters.

    It appears to be just a matter of time before we find ourselves in a direct conflict with the Russians, and that is a really, really bad idea.

    North Korea has been making all sorts of noise lately.  In addition to sending troops to fight in Ukraine, the North Koreans are also threatening to invade South Korea…

    North Korea has said it had found the remnants of a South Korean military drone and that any further “violation” of its territory would result in a “declaration of war.”

    Tensions between the two sides of the peninsula have escalated since May when the North began flying balloons carrying garbage across the border to the South, prompting Seoul to respond by restarting loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts.

    This week, North Korea accused South Korea of flying drones over Pyongyang on three occasions this month and threatened to respond with force if it happened again.

    The North Korean military is vastly superior to the South Korean military.

    If North Korea invades, the only way that South Korea will survive is if we intervene.

    But right now the U.S. military is focused on the Middle East, because that conflict could spiral completely out of control at any moment.

    On Sunday night, IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari warned that Israel would soon begin targeting any financial institutions that aid Hezbollah…

    “In the past 24 hours, dozens of projectiles have been fired at northern Israel,” he began. “In the next minutes, we will issue an advance evacuation warning to residents of Beirut and other areas in Lebanon to evacuate locations being used to finance Hezbollah’s terror activities. I emphasize here: Anyone located near sites used to fund Hezbollah’s terror activities must move away from these locations immediately.”

    “We will strike several targets in the coming hours and additional targets throughout the night.

    “In the coming days, we will reveal how Iran funds Hezbollah’s terror activities by using civilian institutions, associations, and NGOs that act as fronts for terrorism.”

    And it certainly did not take long for that to start happening.

    Last night, branches of Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association Bank were hit by Israeli airstrikes…

    Israeli fighter jets struck dozens of targets in Beirut and other areas of southern Lebanon overnight, including branches of a bank accused of holding funds used by Hezbollah.

    The military’s Arabic spokesman, Avichay Adraee, had earlier in the night issued several evacuation orders for buildings throughout southern Lebanon he said were in the vicinity of facilities belonging to the U.S.-sanctioned Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association Bank.

    Most people in the western world have absolutely no idea how chaotic things have become over there.

    It is being reported that there is “widespread panic” in Beirut at this moment…

    Jeanine Hennis, the United Nations’ special coordinator for Lebanon, said that after the IDF issued its evacuations, said there was “widespread panic” in Beirut.

    “A brief window to escape to safety. Intense blasts reverberate across the night sky. With each day, Lebanon suffers more. But even amid the escalating violence, solutions remain available. If only opportunities would be seized,” she said.

    Could the U.S. soon find itself involved in 4 major global wars?

    Let’s hope not, because we are not even prepared to fight one…

    The US Army’s outgoing top commander in the Pacific region has warned that the US can “ill afford” another war because its military is vastly overstretched.

    According to Defense One, Gen. Charles Flynn said that the US’ authoritarian rivals — Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea — had been placing increasing pressure on American military resources.

    Speaking at the AUSA conference in Washington DC last week, Flynn described the technology and military alliances between the authoritarian states as a “very dangerous combination.”

    The U.S. military is not the overwhelming global force that it once was.

    While other major powers have been feverishly preparing to fight World War III, our military has been rapidly becoming a politically correct joke.

    Now a day of reckoning is upon us, and we are not ready.

    *  *  *

    Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 12:50

  • McDonald's Stock Hammered In Worst Week Since Pandemic Amid E. Coli Outbreak
    McDonald’s Stock Hammered In Worst Week Since Pandemic Amid E. Coli Outbreak

    McDonald’s announced Friday that it has “indefinitely” halted onion sourcing from Taylor Farms’ Colorado plant as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention investigate a severe E. coli outbreak. The outbreak has already sickened at least 75 people and resulted in one death.

    “While McDonald’s removed all slivered onions produced from this facility as of October 22, 2024, due to broad concern and our unwavering commitment to food safety we have made the decision to stop sourcing onions from Taylor Farms’ Colorado Springs facility indefinitely,” MCD wrote in a statement. 

    A spokesman for MCD told CBS News that about 1 million Quarter Pounders were sold nationwide during the E. coli outbreak. The majority of illnesses occurred in the western half of the country. 

    Here are states with cases:

    • Colorado
    • Iowa
    • Kansas
    • Michigan
    • Missouri
    • Montana
    • Nebraska
    • New Mexico
    • Oregon
    • Utah
    • Washington
    • Wisconsin
    • Wyoming

    Bloomberg published a visual showing the outbreak. 

    Source: Bloomberg 

    MCD spokesman noted that burgers are cooked at 175 degrees – the level needed to kill E. coli bacteria. However, he said the diced onions are raw, adding, “If that is the source, it will be the first time onions have been a carrier for this strain of E. coli.” 

    In markets, MCD shares in New York slid on the week, down 7.5%, the worst five-day stretch since March 2020. 

    In addition to MCD, food supplier US Foods issued a recall to thousands of restaurants that it supplied Taylor Farms’ onions. Yum! Brands restaurants—such as Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and KFC—also removed fresh onions from their menus in response to the E. coli outbreak.

    No evidence has emerged identifying the source of the E. coli outbreak at Taylor Farms. However, there’s a huge need to scrutinize the influx of unvetted migrant workers employed by mega-farms and the processed foods industrial complex.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 10/26/2024 – 12:15

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Oct 26

Today’s News 26th October 2024

  • The US Was Inadvertently Responsible For The Sino-Indo Border De-Escalation Deal
    The US Was Inadvertently Responsible For The Sino-Indo Border De-Escalation Deal

    Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

    India announced earlier this week that it and China agreed to patrol their disputed border area in the way that it was before June 2020’s lethal Galwan River Valley clashes. This was made possible by China finally complying with India’s long-standing request, which in turn paved the way for their leaders to hold a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of this week’s BRICS Summit in Kazan. What many don’t realize, however, is that the US was inadvertently responsible for facilitating their deal.

    This analysis here from early May explains how summer 2023’s scandal about an alleged Indian assassination attempt against a Delhi-designated terrorist-separatist with dual American citizenship on US soil was a turning point in their ties. The US then continued with its good cop, bad cop game against India prior to pushing Canada to escalate its related dispute with India earlier this month. Even before the latest developments, however, Indo-US ties had already noticeably soured over this issue.  

    India and China held multiple rounds of talks on their disputed border since 2020, but no breakthrough had occurred until Indo-US ties became characterized by distrust as a result of summer 2023’s scandal and all that followed. China realized that those two’s previous level of trust will never return, which assuaged its concerns that India is playing a leading role in the US’ containment policy. It was this shift in perceptions that then led to China reconsidering its informal policy towards their border dispute.

    China had been reluctant to return to the status quo ante bellum since this was seen as a unilateral concession that could signal weakness and worsen its hand in the South China Sea. The drastic downturn in Indo-US ties, however, led to the aforesaid being perceived as a pragmatic means for managing the abovementioned concerns about India containing China in coordination with the US. The improvement of Sino-Indo ties could therefore place limits on the future improvement of Indo-US ones.

    Finally complying with India’s long-standing request for resolving their post-Galwan tensions and consequently placing their partnership back on track amidst the dramatic downturn in Indo-US ties could preclude the possibility of India participating in the US’ containment scheme. No improvement in Indo-US ties would occur at the expense of Sino-US ones if that happens after this sensitive problem is finally patched up by then and India thus no longer has the same threat perception of China as before.

    China and India have natural economic complementarities, and if the world’s two largest countries ever found a way to unleash their full mutual potential upon resolving their sensitive territorial issues and correspondingly restoring mutual trust, then global affairs would begin to revolve around them. That’s why the US has sought to divide-and-rule them through information warfare and its Kissingerian “triangulation” policy, but this failed after it went too far pressuring India over summer 2023’s scandal.

    About that, the US never respected India as an equal partner and instead sought to subjugate it as a vassal by demanding that India comply with the West’s unilateral sanctions against Russia, which was unacceptable for both economic and principled reasons. The US also feared India’s astronomical rise as a Great Power since the start of the special operation, fueled to a large degree by discounted Russian energy, since this accelerated multipolar processes to the detriment of its unipolar hegemony.

    That explains why it exploited summer 2023’s scandal to worsen their ties, meddled in this year’s earlier general elections, and even helped overthrow the Bangladeshi government a few months ago in order to pressure India into complying with these demands and then punishing it when this didn’t happen. Military and trade ties remain stable for now, but it can’t be taken for granted from India’s perspective that this will remain the case as their political ties continue to deteriorate over summer 2023’s scandal.

    They can quietly manage their competition in Bangladesh and try to find a modus vivendi there, while the US’ meddling wasn’t direct nor intense enough like in other elections to seriously worsen their ties, which is why summer 2023’s scandal remains the most troublesome of their disputes. Instead of letting it subside, the US continues exacerbating it at periodic intervals, both on its own and via its Canadian proxy. This informed India that the US has malicious intentions and can never be fully trusted again.

    Accordingly, India was therefore pleased that China finally decided to comply with its long-standing request for resolving their post-Galwan tensions and getting bilateral ties back on track, which showed the US that India will never become its vassal. Additionally, India also demonstrated that it’s influential enough to further accelerate multipolar processes to the detriment of the US’ unipolar hegemony as revenge for being mistreated, though its wayward partner still might not change its ways.

    Even on the off chance that it does, the mutual trust that used to characterize their ties before summer 2023’s scandal will never return, thus ruling out the possibility that India will contain China in coordination with the US in the future. This is especially so after China just removed the primary irritant in their relations over the past four years that was responsible for driving the military dimension of Indo-US ties that prompted the People’s Republic to speculate that India was trying to contain it with the US.

    In retrospect and provided that the incipient Sino-Indo rapprochement continues, the US’ pressure campaign against India might be seen as a game-changer due to how tremendously it’s poised to reshape the global systemic transition’s strategic dynamics. The meaningful improvement of Sino-Indo relations could lead them closer to unlocking their full mutual potential, which would revolutionize International Relations if successful and thus bring an even swifter end to the US’ unipolar hegemony.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 23:25

  • Watch: Trump And Rogan Have A Wild Interview
    Watch: Trump And Rogan Have A Wild Interview

    Former President Donald Trump appeared on the Joe Rogan podcast Friday, where they discussed a wide range of topics for three hours.

    Watch:

    Highlights:

    Getting rid of income taxes:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Hoaxes perpetrated against Trump:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Why Democrats are in favor of illegal immigration:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Trump on bad White House hires:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Keeping Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas in check:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The two discussed the horrible condition California is in thanks to Gov. Gavin Newsom:

    Trump on getting shot:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Trump on Musk:

    “Surreal” – On what it was like when Trump won the 1st time:

    “I want to be a whale psychiatrist” – Offshore windmills and how they affect whales:

    “You’ve said a lot of wild shit!” – Why Trump became so popular:

    Trump on Barron:

    “Big pharma wasn’t thrilled” – Trump on pressure not to work with RFK Jr.:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 23:06

  • These Are The World's Best Bars In 2024
    These Are The World’s Best Bars In 2024

    Mexico City has been named the world capital of cocktails, with the famed Handshake Speakeasy bar taking the top spot in ‘The World’s 50 Best Bars 2024‘ by William Reed.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, the annual roundup is based on the votes of more than 600 industry experts from around the world, from bartenders and cocktail connoisseurs to consultants, critics and drinks reviewers.

    The podium is completed by Bar Leone, in Hong Kong, and Sips in Barcelona, the latter of which took the top spot last year.

    Infographic: The World’s Best Bars in 2024 | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The highest ranked US bars are Double Chicken Please, in New York City (at 14th)…

    …and Overstory (also in NYC) at 15th on the list.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 23:00

  • Stepping On The Snake
    Stepping On The Snake

    Authored by T.L.Davis via Substack,

    One can roll all of the majority of grievances into one basic event, the government stepping on the snake. The famous Gadsden Flag of “Don’t Tread On Me,” a warning to the Brits to mind their own affairs, or they might get bitten, is a favorite of the patriots against the decades-long process of violating their rights. It’s a warning revived during the Tea Party days, now fifteen years hence. But they have been stepping on them.

    What the US Government loves to do, is step on the snake; to grind it into the ground and since 1787, they have not been bitten. It’s our responsibility to future generations to retaliate for the injustices of our time. Each generation has a duty, as I see it, to deliver the nation to the next generation with a full compliment of rights and freedoms.

    In that endeavor, we have thus far failed, but a new day dawns.

    It’s difficult to imagine the depth and width of patriotic zeal that has slowly been eroded over the past few centuries, but it is a great reservoir that the current regime continues to draw on to inflict mass casualties on the people without significant backlash. This is largely due to a misunderstanding of loyalty.

    The government likes to project symbols as the objects of loyalty, while eroding freedoms in darkness. So they shine a bright light on the flag “Old Glory,” as it’s sometimes called, that represents the past obedience of the government to its charter, the U.S. Constitution. In the meantime, they have hollowed out that document by ignoring it all along the way, from Executive Branch expansion as a means of doing a backward illegality that is the purview of congress, i.e., all spending bills have to originate in the House. But if the Executive Branch creates FEMA or the EPA, it becomes incumbent on congress to fund it with the excuse that they could simply defund it, should it get out of control. Well, that’s exactly what’s happened over and over again, except the House doesn’t have the political will to stand up for the people and defund anything. They have been terrorized by the bureaucrats that give example after example of bad things that they will be blamed for if they defund a single thing.

    They like to shine a bright light on the capitol building and the Washington Monument, even the White House to appeal to patriotism, while none of those things function as intended. During the whole of the Biden Administration, the Executive Branch has run itself. The DOJ doesn’t worry about committing crimes, because who is going to hold it accountable? FEMA and the border patrol fall under their purview as well as the FBI. No one can hold them accountable, but they can defund them. Our congress, who has oversight, has been unwilling to restrain its excesses.

    All of this is a challenge to patriots to do something about it, knowing that whatever they might do will be cast as an attack on the flag, the congress or the cynically termed “democracy.” We saw that on January 6th. It had a chilling effect on the right to assemble and petition for a redress of grievances as intended. The constitutional right violates the security of the corrupt government and is suddenly deemed unpatriotic, an insurrection, rather than what it was, a right to petition the government to correct an openly and arrogantly stolen election.

    The point is, the government will fight back with everything it has to keep the people enslaved to their bastardization of the constitution and the denial of rights of the people. It takes a brave population to shrug off those charges, repudiate the “unpatriotic” theme with action, but look at what’s been endured since January 6th, 2021 and you’ll understand the lengths to which they will go and the methods by which you can operate.

    First, don’t give them a timeline, or an opportunity to infiltrate. The very existence of opposition assembly arises from Obama and sending SEIU out to do his bidding against those who protested Obamacare. I know, I was there, I saw it, including the buses and the sign-in sheets by which these public servants were paid for their time to counter unpaid, patriotic, citizen-organized protests. This is a tactic that has been used over and over with Antifa and BLM in later-stage government’s attacks on freedom of speech and the right to assemble.

    Anytime the government sponsors or pays counter-protesters, it is a violation of the First Amendment. Simple as that. They are acting unlawfully. To counter all of this, the people must be much more aware of their rights and especially the law with the willingness to report such crimes to the Sheriff or DA of the jurisdiction. That, specifically, is in violation of 18 USC 41 Conspiracy against rights, where any two people gathered to deny any right, in this case, intimidate you from exercising one’s right to petition the government for a redress of grievances through fear for one’s safety, they have committed a crime. One can tell the difference by where the “counter protesters” are placed. If it is within sight and sound of original protesters, the right has been violated.

    This all points to one ultimate conclusion. If the government is invested in denying any right of the people, it actually serves as an injury for which consequences can be expected. That is the justification, the act in defense of the constitution that defeats their claims of “unpatriotic acts.” In order to be unpatriotic, one has to be defying the constitution, not the illegal actions of the government itself. Denying that criticism, through counter-protestors or censorship of social media is in violation of the law.

    While I admit this all sounds like official gobbledegook that has no weight or stamina in a corrupt court, it is. But I’m not arguing the law, but the justification for consequences for stepping on the snake. Getting one’s mind right for the upcoming festivities is as important as any other preparation. It will endure one during hard times knowing that despite what the captured media might say, they acted rightfully and legally in the eyes of compatriots. This was the preparatory work not done prior to January 6th.

    There will be another January 6th, they’re begging for it and will, like then, create it, if it won’t be brought to them wrapped in shiny paper and a ribbon. The response, unlike then, must be a full-throated denunciation and demand for the real criminals to be exposed.

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 22:35

  • These Are The Most Common Origins Of Immigrants
    These Are The Most Common Origins Of Immigrants

    A world map showing the most common origins of immigrants by country reveals some prolific immigrant nations as well as the influence that conflict and economic collapse can have on migration patterns.

    As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, the most common pattern around the world is neighbors providing the most immigrants to one another.

    This is for example the case in the U.S. and Mexico, which are the biggest source of immigrants to each other.

    It is the same between Albania and Greece or Honduras and El Salvador, for example.

    Infographic: The Most Common Origins of Immigrants | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    This is based on data from the United Nations Population Division.

    This pattern is disrupted however, when many people leave their country at the same time due to conflict, war or poverty. Venezuelan immigrants are now the largest group in nine neighboring countries, while six neighbors of the Democratic Republic of the Congo have taken in large groups of their citizens.

    For Somalia, its five neighbors.

    Ukrainian immigrants as of 2020 already were the biggest group in four neighboring nations, equal to Syria and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

    Then there are also those nations which are known to send immigrants all over the world, not just in their direct neighborhood. Among them are India and China, with their citizens being the largest group of immigrants in neighboring nations as well as on the Arabian Gulf in the case of India and in Canada and Australia in the case of China.

    In Europe, Poland is the most prominent nation of emigration, with Poles being the largest group of immigrants in the United Kingdom, Germany and some Scandinavian nations.

    Only a handful of countries have a more unique major immigration partner that is not their neighbor. These instances are often tied to colonialism.

    The biggest immigrant group in Equatorial Guinea and Morocco are from France, while for the Netherlands it is Suriname, for Portugal Angola, for France Algeria, for Cuba Spain and for New Zealand the United Kingdom.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 22:10

  • The US Is Now More Dependent On Fossil Fuel Power Than China
    The US Is Now More Dependent On Fossil Fuel Power Than China

    By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

    Increased use of natural gas for power generation has made the United States more dependent on fossil fuels for its electricity supply this year than China, the world’s top carbon emitter.

    Since June 2024, high U.S. summer electricity demand has been mostly met by increased gas-fired power generation, while a rebound in hydropower in China has limited to some extent the share of coal in its electricity supply.

    As a result, fossil fuels – including natural gas and coal – have had an average share of 62.4% of total electricity output in the United States since June. This compares to a lower fossil fuel share in the coal-dominated power system in China, where fossil fuels accounted for 60.5% of generation between June and September, according to data from energy think tank Ember reported by Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire.

    The rise in natural gas power output could undermine the current U.S. goals of making the grid zero-carbon by 2035.

    U.S. power generation from natural gas surged by 20% in the first nine months of 2024, compared to the same period of 2019. The share of gas in power supply has jumped to 43% from 38% five years ago.

    In recent years, power demand in the United States, the single largest portion of which is delivered by gas-fired power plants, has soared and is expected to continue to surge with rising electrification and more electricity necessary to power and cool data centers.

    U.S. power-generating companies are announcing plans for the highest volume of new natural gas-fired capacity in years as the AI boom is driving demand for electricity.

    During the first half of 2024, electricity-generating firms unveiled plans for the new gas-powered capacity equal to all capacity announced in 2020, according to data from Sierra Club cited by Bloomberg last month.

    Natural gas-fired electricity generation in the United States has jumped year-to-date compared to the same period last year, as total power demand rose with warmer temperatures and demand from data centers.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 21:45

  • 39% Of US Couples Met Online
    39% Of US Couples Met Online

    Today’s daters are taking matters into their own hands. Seemingly no longer satisfied with the potential partners that life throws at them at work, in school and in their circle of friends, Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below that an increasingly large number of heterosexual daters is opting to meet their partner online.

    Surveys carried out and analyzed by Stanford University show that between 1995 and 2017 the number of heterosexuals who met their partner on the internet rose sharply from 2 percent to 39 percent.

    Infographic: How Couples Met | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    With the help of dating apps like Tinder and eHarmony, but also through social networking sites like Facebook, daters reconnected with old friends and acquaintances (8 percent of couples who met online), were introduced to someone (11 percent) or – in the majority of cases – met someone completely new on their own (81 percent).

    The authors of the survey concluded that the main draw of looking for a stranger online was a larger set of choices than when leveraging friends and family, which was especially useful when “searching for something unusual or hard‐to‐find.“

    In a similar vein, meeting your partner in a bar or restaurant was also on the rise between 1995 and 2017.

    Stanford researchers excluded homosexuals from their analysis because they constitute a minority sexual orientation, making meeting someone online a more obvious choice for them than for heterosexuals.

    These were usually in a “thick dating market” (quote from Stanford) and therefore normally also able to identify several potential mates in their offline lives, according to the research.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 21:20

  • American Horror Story: How We Create Our Own Worst Nightmare
    American Horror Story: How We Create Our Own Worst Nightmare

    Via SchiffGold.com,

    A simple internet search confirms the overwhelming buzz in the air: Americans across the board are more concerned with the economy than any other political issue.

    This concern is overwhelming across both aisles, seems to be growing, and has remained a large issue for years. Recent polling data shows that when combined, concern about inflation & prices, and jobs & the economy create a supergroup that more than doubles any other individual worry. While party lines are more rigid than we would like to believe, it seems as though a candidate who embraced this fear and found a solution could have absurdly high mass appeal.

    While both presidential candidates have seen the recent trends and more strongly espoused their economic plans, it seems almost impossible to focus on the economy too much. While the lack of overwhelming emphasis on economic issues might seem like a simple misunderstanding between politicians and citizens, the root of high inflation and economic uncertainty is much more linked to voter’s own desires than they would ever want to believe.

    Citizens, whose actively informed assent is supposed to be one the primary bases of government, have an odd habit of wanting the best for themselves. The declaration’s explicit promotion of our right to “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” has created a foundational belief that anything short of thriving is not fulfilling the promise of America.​​ While what it means to thrive is defined differently by person, most Americans believe that our access to material goods, pleasures, and freedom from worry should be constantly growing. While this desire is not unique to Americans, the state’s embrace of its role as a servant makes us less skeptical of politicians who promise to give national success in every area. We only apply strong scrutiny to the high-flying claims of the opposing sides’ candidates because we believe that the high-flying promises of our own candidates are merely necessary to the fulfillment of their duty. While in many countries all politicians are more obviously known to be self-seeking charlatans, our institutions’ relative freedom from corruption have allowed us to live under the illusion that we are always one president away from “getting it right.”

    This desire creates an endless loop where candidates who do not paint a rosy picture of the future lose favor with the public. While the American political and economic system has created unprecedented human thriving, our desire to select candidates who claim to “do it all” is the root cause of our economic woes. 

    It may seem fatalistic to claim that positive and multi-focused candidates are the problem. There is nothing inherently wrong with having a diverse policy agenda, but the short term cycle of elections necessitates that plans will skew towards the near future. It is possible to have less inflation, more economic growth, and less taxes, but not immediately. The best that a candidate can hope for is to time everything right so that all the key metrics of economic success are most appealing in the months leading up to their hopeful reelection. People cling to the idea that we can fix all of our problems without associated pain or adjustment periods. We must embrace willing restraint from indulgence if we are to secure the free and prosperous future we dream of. Candidates fuel our ignorant belief that we can be reckless in the present without sacrificing the future, because they know they will be able to escape blame for a collapse that comes many years after they leave office. This negative cycle is not a direct result of our electoral process, or even of the candidates themselves.

    This cycle is allowed to continue because of the economic ignorance and low impulse control of voters.

    We damn our children by choosing to maximize our own comfort, not fully understanding how it will affect them, or even ourselves in 15 years. 

    We will not be able to escape this cycle until basic economic principles are more rigorously taught in schools. When forced to choose between two big-spending candidates, choosing the candidate who creates freer market conditions will always be the better choice, because that type of unpredictable and rapid growth can sustain far more spending than the tepid stagnation of a wannabe command economy. While the choice is obvious, it is far from a safe choice. The candidates are not the problem, rather, they are a reflection of our desires. Our desires and understanding must be formed through our upbringing and education in a way that will allow us to cut through empty promises and simplistic hedonism. Wanting low prices, low taxation, a healthy military and a strong healthcare system is natural, but we must be wise enough to know that those things must come slowly.

    Fiscal responsibility is boring and painful, but it is the only way to simultaneously secure “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 20:55

  • US Shale Nat Gas Production Declines For The First Time Since 2000
    US Shale Nat Gas Production Declines For The First Time Since 2000

    By Katy Fleury of the EIA.gov

    U.S. natural gas production from shale and tight formations, which accounts for 79% of dry natural gas production, decreased slightly in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. If this trend holds for the remainder of 2024, it would mark the first annual decrease in U.S. shale gas production since we started collecting these data in 2000.

    Total U.S. shale gas production from January through September 2024 declined by about 1%, to 81.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), compared with the same period in 2023, while other U.S. dry natural gas production increased by about 6% to 22.1 Bcf/d. Total U.S. dry natural gas production from January through September 2024 averaged 103.3 Bcf/d, essentially flat compared with the same period in 2023.

    The decline in shale gas production so far this year has been driven primarily by declines in production in the Haynesville and Utica plays. From January through September 2024, shale gas production decreased by 12% (1.8 Bcf/d) in the Haynesville and by 10% (0.6 Bcf/d) in the Utica compared with the same period in 2023. At the same time, shale gas production in the Permian play grew by 10% (1.6 Bcf/d). Production in the Marcellus play, which leads U.S. shale gas production, remained flat.

    The Haynesville play in northeastern Texas and northwestern Louisiana is a dry natural gas formation. The Utica and Marcellus plays in the Appalachian Basin produce lease condensate in addition to dry natural gas. In all three plays, natural gas prices mostly drive drilling and developing wells. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub daily natural gas price has generally declined since August 2022 and reached record lows in the first half of 2024, making drilling natural gas wells less profitable, particularly in the Haynesville. Several operators in the Haynesville and the Appalachian Basin shut in natural gas production in reaction to historically low prices and intend to continue curtailments in the second half of 2024.

    In contrast, natural gas produced in the Permian play in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico is primarily associated gas from oil wells where drilling and development is driven by the oil price. Natural gas production in the Permian has increased this year along with increasing oil production.

    Shale natural gas production in the Utica was 5.6 Bcf/d in September, 33% less than the monthly high of 8.3 Bcf/d in December 2019 and 10% less than the average of 6.2 Bcf/d in 2023. At depths of 5,000 feet to 11,000 feet, wells in the Utica, which lies beneath the Marcellus, are slightly more expensive to drill than Marcellus wells because of their depth.

    Drilling costs of Haynesville wells, at depths of 10,500 feet to 13,500 feet, are even higher. Shale natural gas production in the Haynesville was 13.0 Bcf/d in September 2024, 14% less than the peak in May 2023. The Haynesville is the third-largest shale gas-producing play in the United States, behind the Marcellus and the Permian plays. In 2023, shale natural gas production in the Haynesville averaged 14.6 Bcf/d, accounting for 14% of total U.S. dry natural gas production.

    The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas price fell 79% from the August 2022 inflation-adjusted high of $9.39 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) to an average of $1.99/MMBtu in August 2024. So far this year, the price has averaged $2.10/MMBtu compared with an inflation-adjusted average of $6.89/MMBtu in 2022 and $2.62/MMBtu in 2023. As natural gas prices declined, the economics of producing natural gas in the dry gas formations worsened, leading producers to shut in production and drop drilling rigs.

    Producers tend to increase or decrease the number of drilling rigs in operation as natural gas prices fluctuate. The number of natural gas-directed drilling rigs in the Haynesville, Utica, and Marcellus plays has decreased steadily since the end of 2022, according to data from Baker Hughes. In the Haynesville, an average of 33 rigs were in operation in September 2024, 53% fewer than in January 2023. The number of rigs operating in the Haynesville in September was the lowest it has been since July 2020.

    In the Utica, an average of seven rigs were operating in September 2024, fewer than half the number that were operating in January 2023, and in the Marcellus, an average of 25 rigs were in operation, about 36% fewer than in January 2023. Although the productivity of newer wells has improved in recent years, the decline in rig counts has contributed to an overall decrease in production.

    In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast total U.S. dry natural gas production to average 103.5 Bcf/d in 2024, down slightly from 103.8 Bcf/d in 2023, and to resume modest growth in 2025 at 104.6 Bcf/d.

     

     

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 20:30

  • 2 Lawmakers Attempt The Impossible: Saving Social Security
    2 Lawmakers Attempt The Impossible: Saving Social Security

    Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    More members of Congress, 329, co-sponsored the Social Security Fairness Act (SSFA) than nearly any other legislative proposal in 2024, but that may not be evidence of lawmakers’ eagerness to fix what ails the retirement pension program—the bill doesn’t address the fundamental insolvency issue.

    Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Shutterstock

    The SSFA would end two provisions of current law that reduce benefits for millions of public employees at all levels of government with separate pension systems. Eliminating the provisions means more Social Security benefits for such workers.

    In other words, the SSFA would increase the total amount of Social Security benefits paid out without providing new revenues to fund them. Even so, the bipartisan proposal is likely to pass Congress and President Joe Biden—who promised in his 2020 campaign to eliminate the provision—is expected to sign it into law when lawmakers reconvene after the election.

    For decades, Social Security has been the untouchable “third rail” of American politics that virtually no Democrat or Republican dares to propose changing for fear of angering legions of elderly and disabled voters who depend on the program.

    Approximately 70 million Americans are beneficiaries, making Social Security the largest federal entitlement program.

    The Social Security Trustees’ latest report projects that the system will become insolvent in 2035 unless Congress approves major reforms soon.

    Meanwhile, the ratio of workers paying into the system to beneficiaries is heading downward. The ratio in 1950 was 16 workers to one beneficiary; today that ratio is 2.8 workers per beneficiary. Plus, retirees are living longer today, drawing more benefits over time.

    Politicians increase benefits, but are loathe to increase Social Security taxes or slash benefits.

    The seemingly impossible challenge for Congress and the White House is how to reform Social Security if increased taxes and reduced benefits are untouchable. The last president to propose a major reform was George W. Bush, who shortly after being re-elected in 2004, suggested privatizing the system.

    Under that proposal, Americans would have been allowed to divert some of their Social Security taxes into government-approved private investment funds. Bush hastily dropped the plan after opposition in both parties and in the mainstream media exploded.

    More recently, two lawmakers have ventured beyond the raise-taxes-reduce-benefits dilemma to explore other ways of saving Social Security before it becomes insolvent.

    Raising the Tax Cap

    Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.) has introduced his Social Security 2100 Act repeatedly in recent years, and it has gained strong support (188 co-sponsors) among his Democratic colleagues. Larson is the top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee’s Subcommittee on Social Security.

    During a floor speech earlier this year, Larson said that “more than five million of our fellow Americans have worked and paid into the system and get below poverty level checks from their government.”

    Larson noted, however, that it has been decades since Congress approved changes designed to shore up the Social Security system’s finances. He also rejected suggestions from House Republicans that a study commission be created to recommend reforms.

    “It’s long overdue that we not study this—how about we do what we’re elected to do by the public and actually vote,” he said.

    “I commend President Biden for saying, look, the way we’re going to pay for this is by lifting the cap … on people making more than $400,000 a year.”

    Larson’s bill would not hike the Social Security tax rate, but would apply Social Security taxes to all taxpayers making more than $400,000 annually. The present salary cap on Social Security taxes is set at $168,600.

    “Millionaires have already stopped paying into the Social Security program. Bill Gates stopped paying back in January. That is wrong, it’s not right, but to lift that cap will allow us to not only extend the solvency of Social Security, but increase benefits across the board,” he said.

    Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.) speaks as House Democrats hold a news conference to announce the introduction of the Social Security 2100 Act in front of the U.S. Capitol on March 18, 2015. Allison Shelley/Getty Images

    According to an analysis by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, an individual making $500,000 annually only pays Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) levies on the first $168,600 of income, which equals $10,453 a year. Under the Larson proposal, the same individual would pay $31,000 in FICA levies, nearly three times as much.

    Larson did not respond to requests for comment.

    The Big Idea

    Venturing even further into reform is Sen. Bill Cassidy, a Louisiana doctor and ranking Republican on the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions.

    Cassidy calls his proposal the “Big Idea” and it is based on the creation by Congress of a new $1.5 trillion investment fund that is totally separate from the Social Security Trust Fund—which receives FICA revenues that pay for benefits.

    Asked by The Epoch Times how the new fund would be financed, Cassidy said “that is open to negotiation. You could sell government assets to fund it over time, you could borrow it and put it in there.

    “Folks say ‘But wait a minute, isn’t that going to increase your debt?’ It turns out you’re not spending it, you’re putting it into escrow. And according to the Congressional Budget Office, that’s going to be considered a wash.”

    The Big Idea escrow fund would be managed by an independent company that would bid for the job, assume a fiduciary responsibility for the results and invest the fund in a conservative portfolio of private sector entities to function like Sovereign Wealth funds.

    “[Wall Street executive John] Paulson and [former President Donald] Trump have talked about creating a Sovereign Wealth fund. Advisers to Joe Biden have talked about creating a Sovereign Wealth fund. Now what we’re talking about with our Big Idea is somewhat of a Sovereign Wealth fund,” Cassidy said. Paulson is often mentioned as a potential Secretary of the Treasury if Trump is re-elected.

    The same approach is already in use in the pension field, Cassidy said, with the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) for civil servants, the U.S. National Railroad Retirement Trust, Wisconsin’s public employee retirement system, and the Canadian government pension system.

    Cassidy said the fund is projected to generate sufficient profits to cover 75 percent of Social Security’s revenue shortfall and that he is open to alternative approaches to covering the remaining 25 percent.

    “Combined with some relatively minor tweaks to the program, at the end of 75 years, all the accumulated debt would be paid off, and the Social Security program would be able to cover its obligations in perpetuity,” he said in an earlier statement.

    Asked how misuse would be avoided, Cassidy said “we’ve got a couple of mechanisms, we had the Heritage Foundation help us draft the way by which to prevent political meddling.” He said former Comptroller General David Walker has also suggested several solutions.

    Cassidy said he supports a ban on investing in firms based in China, an issue that ensnared TSP managers in 2019 when Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) highlighted the risks of federal worker contributions investing in Chinese firms.

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 20:05

  • US Signals Defense Guarantees To Saudis As Iran's Crosshairs Could Be On Abqaiq Refinery
    US Signals Defense Guarantees To Saudis As Iran’s Crosshairs Could Be On Abqaiq Refinery

    Wall Street analysts have been on edge for weeks over the scope of Israel’s planned retaliation strike after Iran’s large-scale missile barrage on Oct. 1, which may include F-35 stealth fighter jets striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile sites and or oil infrastructure. The geopolitical risk premium for Brent crude has faded in recent weeks as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken runs around the Middle East to ensure that IDF jets hold off on any strikes against Iran until after the US presidential elections. 

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    Israel has considered a slew of retaliatory options, reportedly including fighter jets striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ high-value military targets, as well as Iran’s leadership, financial networks, oil infrastructure, and nuclear program sites. 

    About a week ago, Axios reported the leak of a highly classified US intelligence report that revealed new details about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran. This leak delayed IDF’s strike.

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    IDF’s most strategic move would be to dismantle the IRGC’s command and control networks and centers by targeting key officials, missile sites, and then financial networks. Also, paralyze Tehran’s ability to export crude via dark tanker fleets to China (source of revenues). All while trying to avoid a humanitarian crisis. This will be very challenging for Israel. 

    There is no doubt that after IDF strikes Iran, IRGC will respond in a tit-for-tat effort… 

    “The Iranian Foreign Minister’s ongoing diplomatic flurry in the Gulf notwithstanding, Iran will have little choice but to follow up on its threats to strike Gulf energy infrastructure once Iran’s own energy facilities come under attack and it becomes clear – again – that Iran lacks the ability to cause commensurate damage in Israel…This is easy to envision before the end of the year,” Scott Modell, CEO at Rapidan Energy Advisors, wrote in a statement.

    Bloomberg noted Friday morning that people familiar with the matter indicate Biden admin officials have signaled to Saudi Arabia they’re on standby and ready to defend the Kingdom against an attack by Iran or its proxies.

    Here’s more from the report:

    The tacit offer, made in the past few weeks, has given Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and other Gulf Arab leaders some comfort as they await Israel’s response to Iran’s Oct. 1 missile attack, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive issues. Gulf states fear any escalation of the conflict could severely hurt their economic and security interests, the people said.

    In all fairness to Bloomberg journalists, the US doesn’t really have any other option to signal otherwise. 

    The vulnerability we see is precisely what Iran demonstrated in its drone and missile attacks at Abqaiq (the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world) and Khurais in Saudi Arabia in 2019.

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    This Abqaiq refinery attack back then briefly shuttered 5% of the global oil supply. 

    There’s a very real risk that the next evolution of conflict could be IRGC striking oil assets in Saudi Arabia, or even causing trouble in the maritime chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz – all in an effort to weaponize crude oil markets against the West and spark a financial shock. We’ve highlighted this potential scenario since early March in a note titled “The Weaponization Of Crude Could Trigger The Next Financial Shock.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 19:40

  • Israeli Forces Attack Iran With "Precise Strikes On Military Targets" In Retaliatory Response
    Israeli Forces Attack Iran With “Precise Strikes On Military Targets” In Retaliatory Response

    Israel attacked Iran early Saturday morning local time with what it’s referred to as “precise strikes on Iranian military targets,” weeks after the Islamic Republic fired around 180 ballistic missiles towards Israel on Oct. 1. Blasts were reported near the headquarters of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

    In a rare announcement, the Israeli military said its strikes are underway, and that their “offensive and defensive capabilities are fully mobilized,” while the WSJ reports that Israel gave the US advance notice.

    “We were aware in advance,” said a US official.

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    According to unconfirmed reports, several explosions have been heard in Tehran. According to journalist Reza Rashidpour, five large explosions were heard in the city within around 10 seconds, while Iranian Air Force jets have taken off in the western part of the country, the NY Times reports.

    According to the Times: 

    Residents of Tehran reported hearing multiple explosions in and around the Iranian capital, and Iranian state media sites said the explosions were near or at Imam Khomeini international airport.

    Maryam Naraghi, an Iranian journalist, said she heard large explosions in the eastern part of Tehran, where she lives. “It was the sound of bombs and explosions,” she said. “It was very close to where I am in the eastern part of the city.” The area includes military bases and the secretive military site Parchin.

    Another Iranian journalist, Reza Rashidpour, said five massive explosions were heard in Tehran within about 10 seconds. He said Iranian air force jets had taken off in the western part of the country.

    Iranians have also reported hearing explosions in Isfahan, Mashhad, and Kurdistan province, while two senior Arab officials told NBC News that the initial strike on Tehran targeted barracks and a weapons depot.

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    Tehran has threatened to target Gulf states and other US allies if their territories or airspace are used to attack Iran – while Israel assured the US that it wouldn’t strike Iran’s oil or nuclear facilities.

    As Axios reports, US and Israeli officials believe Iran will respond military – but hope it will be ‘constrained’ in order to put an end to the tit-for-tat (ok).

    Driving the news: The U.S. military boosted its forces in the region in the last few weeks ahead of Israel’s possible attack on Iran.

    • U.S. officials said the goal was to deter Iran from responding and help Israel defend itself from another Iranian missile barrage.
    • President Biden and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin decided to deploy a THAAD missile defense system in Israel with a crew of U.S. military operators.
    • That means U.S. soldiers could actively engage in the fighting between Israel and Iran on Israeli soil.
    • On Friday, several hours before the Israeli strike, CENTCOM announced that U.S. Air Force F-16s from the 480th Fighter Squadron based at Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany had arrived in U.S. Central Command’s area of responsibility.

    Meanwhile, the FBI is investigating a leak of top secret US intelligence documents that revealed part of Israel’s upcoming strike on Iran.

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 19:35

  • Quiet Before The Storm
    Quiet Before The Storm

    Authored by J. Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics,

    “I just can’t wait for this campaign to be over.”

           –The American people

    Enjoy these last nasty days of the presidential election – they are the quiet before the storm. As long as the race continues, each side’s anger is reined in by the hope of victory. Once a winner is declared, the loser’s rage will erupt. This political Vesuvius promises to inflame the land as events unfold in these final days to maximize furious disappointment

    Donald Trump’s side is becoming ever more confident of victory. In recent weeks, RealClearPolitics Polling Averages show Harris’ national lead evaporating while Trump has moved slightly ahead in all six battleground states. Betting markets are now giving Trump the edge.

    Still, the polls are very close, and Harris may win. If Trump could insist that he won the 2020 race when all the polls predicted his defeat, just imagine his response if he fails when he appeared to be succeeding. He will not go quietly into the good night.

    Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has settled on a closing argument that focuses on Trump’s alleged unsuitability for office. As the candidate herself describes her opponent as an unstable threat to the Constitution, her surrogates are once again comparing him to Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini. They honestly believe this rhetoric, which will make it impossible for them to bow to his ascension.

    We have seen this movie before. The Democrats refused to accept Trump’s victory in 2016; he still won’t concede that President Biden won in 2020. As before, neither side will blame themselves for defeat; they will lash out at their perceived enemies. Each will advance their favored conspiracy theory – Trump will rail against the press and deep state, Democrats against foreign influence and misinformation – but both will cast the result as illegitimate.

    This is what happens when you are controlled by tribal emotion, when your politics are governed by psychology rather than policy. People have too much invested in the outcome – literally, their sense of self – to engage in soul searching (at least in the short run).

    Because of the different structures of each party, a Harris loss would be far more destructive to the country.

    In its current incarnation, the GOP is a bottom-up party. None of its ranking eminences wanted Trump to be the nominee in 2016; almost all of them hoped he would go away after his 2020 defeat. The MAGA rank and file felt differently.

    If Trump loses, he will fume and smolder and inflame the body politic. Millions of his supporters will be outraged. But they are largely powerless to influence events. Jan. 6 may have been a dark day in American history, but it was a brief action by a small number of people that was never repeated. Most Republicans condemned the assault and resigned themselves to living peaceably during the Biden presidency. If Trump loses once more, party leaders will, as in 2020, admit defeat and denounce efforts to overturn the result. Frankly, they will be happy to turn the page on the Trump era.

    The Democrats, by contrast, are a top-down party. While no one should be surprised by a repeat of the contained violence their supporters unleashed around Trump’s inauguration, the real action will occur once more in the corridors of power.

    In a repetition of Trump’s first term, party leaders will refuse to accept his election. An army of Democratic Party lawyers is amassed, awaiting instructions on how, and where, to challenge the results. If, as the polls suggest, Democrats retake the House, they have already floated the idea of refusing to seat him, invoking the Civil War-era 14th Amendment to claim he is a Jan. 6 “insurrectionist.” Assuming that gambit fails, they will almost certainly launch multiple impeachment efforts against him while their stenographers in legacy media continuously cast him as an existential threat to the Republic. As during Trump’s first term, every day will be a nonviolent version of Jan. 6. You cannot, after all, find common ground with Hitler.

    It pains me to say that the next four years will be more bitter than the last eight. We, the people, have painted ourselves into a corner by turning to the unforgiving world of politics to find identity and meaning. Will we ever find the courage to say enough?

    J. Peder Zane is a RealClearInvestigations editor and columnist. He previously worked as a book review editor and book columnist for the News & Observer (Raleigh), where his writing won several national honors. Zane has also worked at the New York Times and taught writing at Duke University and Saint Augustine’s University.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 19:15

  • Owners Of Ship Involved In Baltimore Bridge Collapse Settle DOJ Lawsuit For $100 Million
    Owners Of Ship Involved In Baltimore Bridge Collapse Settle DOJ Lawsuit For $100 Million

    The owner and operator of the cargo ship that caused a Baltimore bridge collapse has agreed to pay nearly $102 million to settle a civil lawsuit with the Department of Justice, the DOJ announced Thursday.

    The Dali collided with one of the columns of the Francis Scott Key bridge in March, after the ship suffered mechanical issues, which caused the bridge to collapse and kill six workers. 

    The incident forced Baltimore to close its port and federal channel for months, which slowed commercial shipping traffic that flowed through Maryland’s largest city.

    As The Epoch Times’ Caden Pearson reports, the DOJ announced the settlement with Grace Ocean and Synergy Marine, the owners and operators of the Motor Vessel Dali, on Oct. 24.

    The deal resolves a portion of the legal dispute that began in September when the DOJ sued the companies for damages linked to the federal government’s response to the incident.

    The $101.9 million settlement will cover the federal government’s costs for cleaning up the wreckage and reopening the port. However, it does not address the cost of rebuilding the bridge itself, which the state of Maryland is pursuing in a separate claim.

    “Thanks to the hard work of the Justice Department attorneys since day one of this disaster, we were able to secure this early settlement of our claim, just over one month into litigation,” Benjamin Mizer, principal deputy associate attorney general, said in a statement.

    “This resolution ensures that the costs of the federal government’s cleanup efforts in the Fort McHenry Channel are borne by Grace Ocean and Synergy and not the American taxpayer.”

    In a separate move, Grace Ocean has already paid nearly $100,000 to the Coast Guard to address the oil spill threat caused by the wreck.

    “This is a tremendous outcome that fully compensates the United States for the costs it incurred in responding to this disaster and holds the owner and operator of the Dali accountable,” said Brian Boynton, principal deputy assistant attorney general at the DOJ.

    The disaster occurred on March 26 when the Motor Vessel Dali lost power while departing the Port of Baltimore for Sri Lanka.

    After regaining and then losing power again, the ship struck the Francis Scott Key Bridge, causing it to collapse into the water below.

    The collapse halted shipping traffic in and out of the port for weeks and severed a critical highway connection.

    Federal, state, and local agencies worked together to clear over 50,000 tons of debris from the water. Shipping resumed by June after temporary channels were created to ease the jam.

    The $100 million settlement does seem a little shy of the estimates of the costs involved in rebuilding the bridge.

    As Shailen Bhatt, administrator of the Federal Highway Administration, confirmed to lawmakers in May, a preliminary estimate to replace the bridge at $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion. It will take four years to construct, with completion estimated to come sometime in 2028, he said.

    So while they may claim the “American taxpayer” is off the hook,  we suspect that is another lie (because the optics would be bad).

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 18:50

  • Election Battles For State Legislature Supermajorities Heat Up
    Election Battles For State Legislature Supermajorities Heat Up

    Authored by Austin Alonzo via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    While Congress stagnates, America’s state houses are drafting and passing policies affecting millions. Now, more than ever, those legislative bodies operate without input from an opposition party or dissenting governor.

    Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

    As of Oct. 21, there are 23 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 10 divided governments where neither party holds trifecta control, according to Ballotpedia. A trifecta means one party holds the state governorship and a majority in the state house and senate.

    Heading into November’s general election, legislative supermajorities exist in 57 of the 99 legislative chambers in the union, according to data compiled by state and local government consultancy Stateside.

    Republicans hold 41 of those veto-proof advantages, while Democrats own 20. All told, there is a partisan supermajority in at least one house of the Legislature in 35 of the 50 states.

    However, in 14 of those states, the supermajority is held by an advantage of three seats or less. Michael Behm, Stateside’s co-CEO and principal, told The Epoch Times that organizations aligned with the Democratic and Republican parties are spending heavily on down-ballot races that could make or break a supermajority in the coming legislative term.

    Even though voter interest is low in statehouse races compared with high-profile campaigns for national offices, Behm and others who spoke with The Epoch Times said the stakes are high. Most of the legislative actions that affect the public, such as policy on abortions, education, energy, health care, taxes, and transportation, come from decisions made in statehouses.

    “With the federal government being so polarized and hamstrung these days, the action is at the state level,” Behm said.

    Supermajorities

    The definition of a supermajority varies from state to state. Generally, attaining a supermajority means a state legislative body has enough members from one party to pass laws without any votes from the minority party and enough votes to override the governor’s vetoes.

    Heading into the 2024 general election, Republicans hold a supermajority in both houses of the state Legislature in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

    Additionally, Republicans hold a supermajority in one chamber of the Legislature in Iowa, Mississippi, and South Carolina.

    Democrats own a supermajority in both houses of the state Legislature in California, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, and Rhode Island. Democrats have a supermajority in one chamber of the state Legislatures of Colorado, Connecticut, and Nevada.

    Behm said that’s the largest number of supermajorities he has ever observed in state legislatures. Ideologically, the domination of the legislatures by a single party reflects intense political polarization in these states, he said.

    Chris Cooper, director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University, said a supermajority effectively limits the governor’s power to carry out policy priorities in a state with a divided government.

    Four governors—Kansas’s Laura Kelly, Kentucky’s Andy Beshear, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper, and Vermont’s Phil Scott—preside over divided state governments in which the opposition party holds a legislative supermajority.

    The four governors’ legislatures stripped them of much of their policymaking potency. In June, Scott, a Republican, told members of the news media, “I think the power has gotten to their head,” referring to the Democrat-controlled Vermont General Assembly’s overriding of six of his vetoes in a single override session.

    In North Carolina, a supermajority almost wholly nullifies the will of a governor who already commands limited influence under the state’s constitution, Chris Cooper said.

    With their supermajority, Republicans passed new abortion restrictions, drafted new election laws, and further throttled back Gov. Roy Cooper’s power during the most recent legislative session.

    “They have taken away appointment power from the North Carolina governor,” Chris Cooper said. “They have made a number of changes that make the already powerful state Legislature into something even more powerful.”

    National Efforts

    Behm said the rise of legislative supermajorities can be attributed to growing involvement from national partisan groups known as 527 organizations. These are tax-exempt entities that can receive and spend unlimited amounts of money to influence federal, state, and local politics and elections.

    Three decades ago, statehouse races were usually local contests directed and financed by city and state chambers of commerce, unions, and other parochial political organizations, Behm said. Now, national groups such as the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) and Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) invest vast national resources into the state’s legislative caucuses.

    Behm said both party committees use professionals to recruit candidates and organize the partisan campaigns designed to build majorities in statehouses.

    The New York State Assembly Chamber at the state Capitol in Albany, N.Y., on Jan. 16, 2024. Hans Pennink/AP Photo

    “These 527 groups have turned state legislative races into national races,” Behm said.

    Chris Cooper said Republicans began to take over the statehouses in 2010 when the Republican Party introduced an initiative known as Project REDMAP. The plan called for investing huge sums into state legislative races that were previously overlooked in Washington and flipping chambers to the GOP.

    “They did as advertised,” he said. “They turned maps red.”

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 18:25

  • Lebanon Expresses Outrage After Israeli Warplanes Strike Group Of Journalists: 'War Crime'
    Lebanon Expresses Outrage After Israeli Warplanes Strike Group Of Journalists: ‘War Crime’

    Lebanon has accused Israel of committing a war crime after a group of journalists in south Lebanon came under attack by Israeli warplanes. Three journalists were killed during an air raid on a hotel or guesthouse in Hasbaya, about 50km south of Beirut and near the Syrian border.

    BBC is reporting that “The attack was carried out on a guesthouse in a compound in Hasbaya being used by more than a dozen journalists from at least seven media organizations – with a courtyard containing cars clearly marked with ‘press’.

    Image: Associated Press

    The three slain journalists worked for regional broadcasters Al-Manar TV and Al Mayadeen TV, which confirmed the deaths in statements, identifying the deceased as Ghassan Najjar, Mohammad Reda, and Wissam Qassem.

    While Israel did not offer immediate comment, it might rationalize or seek to justify the killings given that Al-Manar is a Hezbollah-run news network, and Al Mayadeen is seen as pro-Iran.

    But Lebanon’s Information Minister Ziad Makary charged that this was an intentional assassination of journalists.

    “The Israeli enemy waited for the journalists’ nighttime break to betray them in their sleep… This is an assassination, after monitoring and tracking, with prior planning and design, as there were 18 journalists there representing seven media institutions. This is a war crime,” Makary wrote on X.

    Other reporters, including from MTV Lebanon were present during the attack but escaped unscathed. “All official parties were told that this house was being used as a stay-house for journalists. We coordinated with them all,” an Al-Jadeed journalist described during a subsequent live broadcast from the location.

    And an MTV Lebanon reporter, Youmna Fawwaz, detailed the following:

    She said ceilings had fallen in on them, and they were surrounded by rubble and dust, with the sound of fighter jets overhead.

    Each news organization had their own building in the compound, she said, and the building housing the Al Mayadeen reporters was “obliterated” while Al-Manar employees were inside.

    Images from the bombed-out scene indeed show cars with large English markings indicating ‘Press’…

    Getty Images

    Fawwaz further accused Israel of conducting assassinations in order to prevent the Lebanese correspondents from covering the fighting in the south. “The airstrike was carried out on purpose. Everyone knew we were there. All the cars were labelled as press and TV. There wasn’t even a warning given to us,” she said.

    Since the start of the conflict after Oct.7, 2023 – dozens of journalists have died – mostly in Gaza. Israel has particularly cracked down on Al Jazeera, expelling the Qatar-based network from Israel and the West Bank.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 18:00

  • Is Kamala The Bigger Threat To The Constitutional Order?
    Is Kamala The Bigger Threat To The Constitutional Order?

    Authored by David Harsanyi via PJMedia.com,

    Vote. Don’t vote. I don’t care. Just stop telling me that Vice President Kamala Harris is going to save democracy.

    Do I wish Republicans had nominated a more coherent, principled, competent candidate for the presidency? Of course. But if anyone is under the impression Democrats tapped such a person, I have news. Spend some time trying to decipher Harris’ swirling, platitude-ridden, incoherent rhetoric and you will only be further convinced that we live in an idiocracy.

    Sure, there are many reasons why a movement conservative might feel uncomfortable voting for former President Donald Trump. I get it. I’m not a fan. But there are plenty of completely rational reasons to vote for him, as well. First and foremost, the existence of the contemporary Democratic Party.

    Liz Cheney, and other Never Trumpers, tell me that the former president poses a uniquely dangerous threat to the Constitution, and thus, I must set aside any policy disagreements with Democrats and put country over politics.

    No doubt, this kind of self-glorification feels great, but it doesn’t really comport with reality.

    For one thing, most of the Left’s scariest warnings about Trump are fiction. I don’t believe The Atlantic when it tells me that Trump is a would-be Hitler. I’m sorry, I don’t believe he’s going to throw all his political enemies in concentration camps. Save the story for the next Mueller investigation.

    Considering recent history, in fact, it’s clear to me that the Left is far more adept and willing to weaponize the state to punish their enemies. And I’m not just talking about the unprecedented lawfare launched at Trump. I’m talking about debarring lawyers. I’m talking about raiding the homes of pro-life activists. I’m talking about the spying on Catholic churches and the Justice Department’s chilling speech by smearing parents who stood up to authoritarian school boards as terrorists.

    Moreover, even if Trump acted on his worst instincts, the damage would likely be confined to his own presidency. Trump is about Trump. Harris and Democrats, though, have openly embraced a string of consequential, long-term attacks on the constitutional order. Ones that we can never come back from.

    Sorry, I don’t accept that a woman who once complained to CNN’s Jake Tapper that “millions and millions of people” were speaking “without any level of oversight or regulation, and that has to stop” is going to be my champion of the Constitution.

    Harris’ running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz recently argued that there is “no guarantee” for free speech when it came to “misinformation” or “hate speech,” “especially around our democracy.” If this were a properly functioning republic, Walz would be thrown to the curb.

    No honest person could possibly believe Democrats are better for free expression.

    Let’s not forget either that Harris once promised to bypass Congress and sign an executive order seizing rifles from millions of law-abiding Americans. Though Democrats like to pretend otherwise, the Second Amendment is still part of the Constitution.

    Indeed, Harris is in no position to lecture anyone about any governing norms.

    She frequently praises Biden for ignoring courts and “forgiving” student loans by forcing taxpayers to foot the bill. She supports trashing the legislative filibuster, empowering slim majorities to destroy any semblance of federalism. Harris has backed bills that would have overturned thousands of state laws, allowing national Democrats to strip state election security measures, make abortion legal until crowning, compel local religious hospitals to perform gender transition surgeries, shut down religious foster care organizations, and many other outrages.

    None of this is to even speak of her efforts to destroy the Supreme Court. Harris, who gleefully took part in the vile smearing of Justice Brett Kavanaugh, supports packing the court — the most serious attack on the judicial branch since President Franklin Roosevelt’s effort in the 1930s. Senate Democrats say it is “virtually certain” they will pass a “Supreme Court reform” bill that, among other assaults on the judicial branch, will empower legislators to strip individual justices of their power.

    This is all just blatantly authoritarian stuff. 

    Right now — in part, because of Trump — the court is the only institution in the United States that properly functions. There is no telling what kind of arsonist Harris and Democrats would install.

    At the very least, I know Trump has a track record of not only nominating decent jurists but sticking with them under massive pressure.

    It is odd, indeed, that Democrats, who support price controls, state mandates and a slew of other economic intrusions that force corporations to bend to their will, are constantly warning us about the specter of “fascism.”

    We have no clue if the Trump presidency plays out. Trumpism is whatever Trump says it is whenever he feels like it. It might well be a disaster. But Harris offers me nothing.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 17:40

  • At Least A Dozen Colorado Ballots Stolen And Mailed In, Officials Say
    At Least A Dozen Colorado Ballots Stolen And Mailed In, Officials Say

    Reinforcing concerns that many Americans have with voting that isn’t done in-person, at least 12 Colorado mail-in ballots were stolen, filled out with forged signatures, and submitted — and three of them are going to count anyway. Announced by state officials on Thursday, the thefts all affected voters in western Colorado’s Mesa County, but the discovery leaves people wondering how many other forged ballots may have gone undetected elsewhere in the state and across the country.

    “The Department of State learned that at least 12 ballots appear to have been intercepted before reaching voters,” said Secretary of State Jena Griswold’s office in a statement. “Those ballots were voted and then returned to the Mesa County Clerk and Recorder via USPS mailboxes. This issue was flagged during Colorado’s secure signature verification process.” 

    Secretary of State Jena Griswold said every voter will be able to “make their voice heard” — but previously tried to prevent Donald Trump from appearing on Colorado ballots (Photo: Jena Griswold / X)

    Rather than sending them upon request, Colorado mails ballots to every registered voter in the state — that’s about 4 million ballots making their way through the postal system and before being left in mailboxes, a great many of which are unsecured. In addition to returning ballots via the postal service, Coloradans can also use drop boxes. 

    Several of the victimized voters were surprised to receive notifications that their ballots — which they hadn’t submitted — required curing because their signatures didn’t match digital signatures in the state database. Griswold said the handwriting on multiple ballots seemed to indicate the same individual completed each of them. 

    While sharing some details about the theft, Griswold, a Democrat, was tight-lipped about the detail most people want to know: which candidate(s) were meant to benefit from this crime? If her name sounds familiar, it’s because Griswold attempted to exclude Donald Trump from Colorado’s 2024 ballots on the claim he’d incited an insurrection in 2021. In May, the US Supreme Court ruled against her. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Perhaps the most troubling detail about the Mesa County situation is that three of the fraudulent ballots will not be removed from the count. They were flagged for review, but then a single election judge approved them all. After that action, there’s no mechanism for remedy or removal, officials say. The judge who approved the three forged ballots has been reassigned. “Everybody affected will be offered a new ballot,” Griswold told reporters.  

    “Colorado’s elections are safe and secure. This attempt at fraud was found and investigated quickly because of all the trailblazing processes and tools Colorado has in place like signature verification, ballot tracking, and the curing process,” said Griswold. “Every eligible Colorado voter will be able to make their voice heard this election.” Griswold’s boast seems excessive, given 25% of the known fraudulent ballots are being counted anyway. Uneasy Colorado voters can check the status of their ballots by visiting Go Vote Colorado.  

    Mesa County is in Colorado’s expansive 3rd congressional district. It’s currently represented by Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert, but she’s now making a run to represent eastern Colorado’s 4th district instead. She only won reelection in 2022 by about 500 votes and would have faced long odds against the same better-funded opponent, Adam Frisch. The Economist projects Boebert will win the 4th-district in a landslide. Neither of Colorado’s Senate seats are up for election this year. Meanwhile, Polymarket gives Kamala Harris a 94.8% chance winning Colorado’s 10 electoral votes. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 17:20

  • WaPo Editor Quits, Staff Has Total Meltdown After Non-Endorsement Of Kamala Harris
    WaPo Editor Quits, Staff Has Total Meltdown After Non-Endorsement Of Kamala Harris

    Update (1716ET): Time for another bag of popcorn!

    In response to Jeff Bezos’ decision not to endorse a presidential candidate this year, staff are having a total meltdown, liberals are canceling their subscriptions, and editor-at-large Robert Kagan (husband of Victoria Nuland) just quit.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    According to Semafor, “people are shocked, furious, surprised,” one WaPo editorial board member told the outlet, citing internal discussions involving resignation. “If you don’t have the balls to own a newspaper, don’t.”

    Meanwhile, the paper’s chief technical officer is having engineers block reader questions about the non-endorsement on their internal system.

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    One editorial board member tells Brian Stelter that Bezos’ decision is “an outrageous abdication of responsibility. Democracy doesn’t die in darkness, it dies when people anticipatorily consent to a fascist’s whims.”

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    Subscriptions are being canceled. Reeee!

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    *  *  *

    Update (1450ET): The Washington Post has shed light on their decision not to endorse a presidential candidate for the first time in more than 30 years, revealing that “The decision not to publish was made by The Post’s owner – Amazon founder Jeff Bezos.“

    The paper also admits that a Harris endorsement had been drafted by staffers but Jeff killed it.

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    And employees are seething but not coping, according to Semafor’s Max Tani.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

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    What happened?

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    Look out, Jeff!

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    *  *  *

    Three weeks ago, the Teamsters Union became the second major union to announce that they would not endorse a presidential candidate after internal polling revealed 58% of its members back Trump vs. 31% for Harris.

    That was understandable – their own members overwhelmingly rejected Harris.

    This is different.

    On Friday, the Washington Post announced that it would not endorse a candidate for president either, for the first time in 36 years.

    “The Washington Post will not be making an endorsement of a presidential candidate in this election. Nor in any future presidential election. We are returning to our roots of not endorsing presidential candidates,” the outlet said in a statement.

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    Colleagues are said to be ‘shocked’ at the decision, according to NPR.

    The editorial page editor, David Shipley, told colleagues that the Post’s publisher, Will Lewis, would publish a note to readers online early Friday afternoon.

    Shipley told colleagues the editorial board was told yesterday by management that there would not be an endorsement. He added that he “owns” this decision. The reason he cited was to create “independent space” where the newspaper does not tell people for whom to vote.

    Colleagues were said to be “shocked” and uniformly negative. Post corporate spokespeople have not responded to multiple messages left by NPR on the subject.

    As NPR‘s David Folkenflik notes on X, “It is not clear whether Post owner Jeff Bezos or Publisher/CEO Will Lewis made the call.“

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    As Mario Nawfal noted on X,

    The Post has primarily endorsed Democratic candidates for nearly a century, with only 3 Republicans since 1928.

    Here’s a complete list of presidential candidates endorsed by The Washington Post since 1928, which highlights the significance of their 2024 decision to skip endorsements:

    • 1932 to 1944: Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democrat)

    • 1948: Thomas Dewey (Republican)

    • 1952 & 1956: Dwight D. Eisenhower (Republican)

    • 1960: John F. Kennedy (Democrat)

    • 1964: Lyndon B. Johnson (Democrat)

    • 1968: Hubert Humphrey (Democrat)

    • 1972: George McGovern (Democrat)

    • 1976 & 1980: Jimmy Carter (Democrat)

    • 1984: Walter Mondale (Democrat)

    • 1988: Michael Dukakis (Democrat)

    • 1992 & 1996: Bill Clinton (Democrat)

    • 2000: Al Gore (Democrat)

    • 2004: John Kerry (Democrat)

    • 2008: Barack Obama (Democrat)

    • 2012: Barack Obama (Democrat)

    • 2016: Hillary Clinton (Democrat)

    • 2020: Joe Biden (Democrat)

    The move comes after the Los Angeles Times similarly declined to endorse Harris – leading to the resignation of the paper’s opinion editor, Marzel Garza.

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    Wow…

    Developing…

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 17:17

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Oct 25

Today’s News 25th October 2024

  • Turkey Bombs US Proxies In Northeast Syria Following Ankara Terror Attack
    Turkey Bombs US Proxies In Northeast Syria Following Ankara Terror Attack

    Via The Cradle

    Turkey conducted several airstrikes and artillery shelling across US-controlled north and east Syria late on Wednesday, targeting positions held by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

    The attacks targeted several villages and sites in the Syrian provinces of Aleppo, Raqqa, and Hasakah. One of the attacks hit an SDF military outpost in the countryside of the city of Al-Malikiyah, at the Syrian–Turkish–Iraqi tri-border region. Turkish artillery also hit SDF sites in the village of Umm al-Kaif in the countryside of the town of Tal Tamr, northwest of Hasakah.

    Illustrative via Anadolu Agency

    According to field sources who spoke with Sputnik, Turkish artillery shelling hit the villages of Al-Sayyada, Aoun Al-Dadat, Al-Tukhar, and Al-Daraj.

    On Thursday, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that the attacks killed at least “27 members of military formations operating in SDF-controlled areas,” three soldiers from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), and at least four civilians. 

    For its part, Turkiye’s Ministry of National Defense said 32 targets in Syria and Iraq were “destroyed” in the aerial offensive without providing details on the locations that were hit. Officials added that “all kinds of precautions” were taken to prevent harm to civilians.

    The intense attacks were launched hours after armed assailants set off explosives and opened fire at the headquarters of the Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS) in Ankara, which designs, manufactures, and assembles civilian and military aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and other defense industry and space systems.

    Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya and Defense Minister Yasar Guler accused the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) of being behind the attack. 

    “We give these PKK scoundrels the punishment they deserve every time. But they never come to their senses,” Guler said. “We will pursue them until the last terrorist is eliminated.”

    At least five people were killed and 22 injured in the Ankara attack. Two attackers – a man and a woman – were also killed.

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    Turkey regularly conducts air strikes against the PKK in Iraq and against the SDF in Syria. In 2014, the US military began partnering with the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), an offshoot of the PKK. The YPG later changed its name to the SDF.

    Together, the US and its Kurdish proxies occupy Syria’s northeast, including Hasakah, Raqqa, and parts of Deir Ezzor, denying Syria access to its oil resources and wheat-producing agricultural land.

    Wednesday’s attack in Ankara came as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was in the Russian city of Kazan to attend the annual BRICS summit. He condemned the “hateful attack” alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 10/25/2024 – 02:00

  • Can BRICS Deliver On Its Promises?
    Can BRICS Deliver On Its Promises?

    Authored by RFE/RL Staff via OilPrice.com,

    • Putin is using the BRICS summit to project strength and counter Western isolation, while also pushing for initiatives like an alternative payment system and grain exchange.

    • BRICS members are divided on their approach to the West, with some seeking to reform the current international order and others aiming to dismantle it.

    • Despite its growing economic influence, BRICS faces internal challenges and a mixed track record in achieving its goals.

    As Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts leaders for the 16th annual BRICS summit, he’s determined to show the West that he still has important allies by his side after nearly three years of attempts to isolate Russia for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

    But while Putin is getting the optics he wants, what kind of an organization is BRICS actually growing into?

    Finding Perspective: 

    The summit in Kazan, which began on October 22 and will run until October 24, is the first meeting for the group since Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates joined past members Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

    Putin is looking to use BRICS, or BRICS+ as the expanded format is sometimes termed, to signal that Russia has plenty of influential friends, despite its pariah status in the West.

    The summit is intended to showcase the group’s collective economic might and also entice new countries into a coalition that Moscow and Beijing hope will help form a new world order not dominated by the West.

    In Kazan, Putin is expected to push negotiations to build an alternative platform for international payments that would be immune to Western sanctions.

    Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, will also propose the creation of a BRICS grain-trading exchange as an alternative to Western markets where international prices for agricultural commodities are set.

    But not all BRICS members completely align with the anti-Western stance coming from Beijing and Moscow and this divide could come out in Kazan.

    The Balancing Act: 

    While all BRICS members may be united in the “belief that the current structures that govern the international order and the global economy are unfairly weighted toward the Western world,” Stewart Patrick, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told me, there is a division between China, Iran, and Russia, which want to unseat the current order, and others who want to reform it.

    Many BRICS members, like Brazil and India, still work closely with the United States and other countries in the West, even as they seek to gain more global leverage.

    For many of the new members, with the exception of Iran — and also for many that have applied to join recently — BRICS holds mostly economic appeal.

    Members and would-be members alike are also looking for alternative sources of financing than available from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), and are looking to gain better access to burgeoning markets that could better define the global economy in the coming decades.

    Why It Matters: 

    Beyond the financial appeal of the bloc, many countries also view BRICS as a form of geopolitical insurance.

    And that hedge is even more relevant given added unpredictability brought to the United States in recent years.

    Still, the divisions within BRICS — and the bloc’s so far thin track record in delivering on its initiatives — could continue to hold it back.

    China, Iran, and Russia represent a group within BRICS that are grappling to varying degrees with U.S. sanctions and fighting different types of proxy battles with the United States around the world.

    Others, like Egypt, are leading recipients of U.S. military aid or like the United Arab Emirates, host U.S. military bases.

    Adding to those difficulties in articulating what a shared vision for the BRICS would look like, China and India have difficult relations, while there is little warmth to be found between Arab states and Iran.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 23:25

  • Visualizing The Cost Of The American Dream In 2024
    Visualizing The Cost Of The American Dream In 2024

    Today, the rising cost of living is making the American dream increasingly difficult to achieve.

    While pandemic-led wage growth boosted real incomes, it followed five decades of stagnant wage increases. At the same time, housing prices have soared. Pushing up prices are a limited supply of homes, with home construction plummeting 55% compared to 2006. Together, these broad economic forces have made it harder to get ahead, even with a competitive salary.

    This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld, shows the estimated cost of the American dream per household over the course of their lifetime, based on analysis from Investopedia.

    The American Dream Costs a Hefty $4.4 Million

    Below, we breakdown each aspect of the American dream by their lifetime cost as of 2024:

    The total cost of the American dream is no small sum—$4.4 million—exceeding the average lifetime salaries of both men ($3.3 million) and women ($2.4 million) with a Bachelor’s degree.

    Overall, the largest cost is paying for a comfortable retirement. Here, it takes $1.6 million in savings, assuming a 4% annual withdrawal rate and inflation averaging 2.5% per year to retire for 20 years. Notably, the decline in private pension schemes has played a large role in making financial security in later years harder to achieve compared to previous generations.

    Unsurprisingly, owning a home was the second-biggest expense, at $930,000 for an existing single-family home. Given the surging cost of home prices, 77% of U.S. households are unable to afford a median-priced home in 2024.

    As fertility rates in America hit historic lows, raising two children and sending them to college would cost $832,000 overall. Today, 36% of Americans under 50 who don’t have children cite affordability concerns as a major reason for not having kids. Moreover, average college tuition costs have climbed a remarkable 748% since 1963, after adjusting for inflation.

    Following a similar trend, wedding costs, too, have skyrocketed. Between 2019 and 2023, average costs increased by $4,000 alone amid inflationary pressures and pandemic backlogs. Today, it costs over $44,000, including the ceremony, reception, and engagement ring to say “I do”.

    To learn more about this topic from a home ownership perspective, check out this graphic on the salary needed to buy a home in 50 U.S. cities.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 23:00

  • The Navy Needs Advanced Guns And Cheaper Missiles To Defend Against Drone Swarms
    The Navy Needs Advanced Guns And Cheaper Missiles To Defend Against Drone Swarms

    Authored by Mike Fredenburg via The Epoch Times,

    In order to defend its ships and defeat its enemies, our Navy needs to employ inexpensive, highly effective missiles such as those Israel is now making standard on its ships. It also needs to take advantage of the great strides in gun technology to provide its ships with a big boost in air defense capabilities.

    As it stands, the Navy is paying far too much for missiles, but getting more value for our defense dollar has gained in urgency as we have seen the proliferation of cheap drones costing well under $20,000 that can severely damage a ship. While one of these cheap drones is highly unlikely to sink one of our destroyers, a single drone of this ilk is perfectly capable of damaging or destroying critical communications systems, radars, etc. And a large swarm of these drones is very much a threat to any ship in our fleet.

    The problem is that, currently, the main weapons we can deploy to defend against these cheap drones are expensive missiles that range in cost from more than $900,000 to more than $4 million each. Even if we can count on these missiles to be 100 percent effective, using them to defend against an opponent that can direct hundreds of drones at one of our ships, or even thousands over an extended period, makes relying on these expensive missiles unsustainable.

    Fortunately, there is a solution to the problem of our missiles costing many times what they should—and its name is Tamir. The Tamir missile is the toothy part of Israel’s C-Dome system, which itself is the marinized version of Israel’s famed Iron Dome air defense system. At only $50,000 each, Tamir missiles are more than a match for any drone and can also be used to destroy both cruise and ballistic missiles. And with 43 miles of range, they can destroy drones and missiles that our ships in the Red Sea have been forced to destroy using multi-million-dollar missiles because they have nothing less expensive they can use.

    But cheaper, far more cost-effective missiles are only one element of what our Navy needs to face the dangerous new world of cheap lethal drone swarms.

    Another key element is to take advantage of advanced guns that can easily destroy dozens of incoming drones for a fraction of the cost of a missile.

    A great example of such a gun is Oto Melara’s 76-mm Super Rapid. While the Super Rapid can fire unguided rounds, its real strength comes from its ability to fire both GPS-guided rounds and radar-guided rounds.

    In particular, its semi-active radar-guided round, the DART, was designed to kill both missiles and small boats, and is very capable of destroying much slower, more fragile drones. Indeed, the Italian Navy has already been using the Oto Melara 76 mm guns on its destroyers to shoot down Houthi drones threatening shipping in the Red Sea.

    While there is no formal figure published, with the cheap drones being quite slow, typically well under 200 miles per hour, as well as being more fragile than a typical cruise missile, it seems likely, given its reported capabilities, that a single Super Rapid could engage and destroy over a dozen at a time. Couple this with a full magazine of C-Dome Tamir missiles, and you have a ship capable of not only defending itself but also of defending other ships within at least a 30-mile radius and up to 40 miles in some cases.

    In terms of cost, the Super Rapid is a bargain, with the 17,000-pound system coming in at an estimated $3 million: less than it costs to buy one of the $4.3 million SM-6 missiles that have been used in the Red Sea. While there is no published price list for the DART ammo, purchasing them by the hundreds of thousands of rounds should enable volume pricing of less than a few thousand dollars per round, potentially allowing a ship equipped with these guns to destroy cheap drones for less than what it cost the enemy to acquire them.

    Of course, along with hard-kill solutions like guns and missiles, our military needs to be working to develop and deploy electronic warfare solutions that will jam, disable, or even gain control over enemy drones. However, such soft-kill systems do not negate the need for guns and missiles capable of killing drones; instead, they are complementary.

    Finally, while integrating C-Domes and Super Rapid gun systems into our warships will cost a lot of money, given the exorbitant cost of the missiles our ships are currently using to destroy $5,000 drones, the payback period of such an investment would be short, resulting in a Navy better able to defend itself and other ships for less money.

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 22:35

  • North Korean Troops In Ukraine Are 'Fair Game' To Attack, White House Warns
    North Korean Troops In Ukraine Are ‘Fair Game’ To Attack, White House Warns

    The White House and Pentagon have put Russia and North Korea on notice, following several international reports alleging that North Korea has sent troops to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine.

    “If they are co-belligerents, if their intention is to participate in this war on Russia’s behalf, that is a very, very serious issue,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said while returning from his fourth visit to Kiev, where he announced the latest $400 million arms package.

    White House: John Kirby 

    Starting last week, South Korean intelligence backed claims by President Zelensky which said at least 10,000 North Korean troops are mustering in Russia to deploy in Ukraine. Seoul also claimed that 1,500 DPRK are already in Ukraine’s east.

    White House national security spokesman John Kirby on Wednesday described that the US assesses that at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers arrived at Russia’s Pacific port of Vladivostok. They reportedly arrived by boat earlier this month.

    “These soldiers then travelled onward to multiple Russian military training sites in eastern Russia, where they are currently undergoing training,” Kirby said.

    “We do not yet know whether these soldiers will enter into combat alongside the Russian military, but this is certainly a highly concerning probability,” he continued. And that’s when he added the warning and threat:

    …should they deploy to fight against Ukraine, “they’re fair game”.

    Yonhap News Agency had previously reported that the country’s main intelligence agency, NIS, assessed that Pyongyang has made the decision to deploy four brigades to Ukraine, which amounts to an estimated 12,000 troops.

    In a Tuesday evening address, President Zelensky echoed this figure, saying: “We have information that two units of military personnel from North Korea are being trained – potentially even two brigades of 6,000 people each.”

    Zelensky has further commented that this is a sign of the war’s growing internationalization in Moscow’s favor. He has demanded that his Western backers respond.

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    Already, Pyongyang has long faced accusations that it is shipping weapons, and especially artillery shells, to Russian forces for use in Ukraine.

    Kiev has spoken of an ‘axis’ which is at war against Ukraine, including Russian, Iran, and now North Korea.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 22:10

  • Biohacking To Better Health
    Biohacking To Better Health

    Authored by Isabella Cooper via The Brownstone Institute,

    People have always been fascinated with immortality. While great gains in medical care have enabled lifespan extension, this has often come with the price of co-existing with chronic diseases associated with aging, such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, and dementias such as Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease.

    The true “aim of the game” is to have a long healthspan with negligible senescence. This means the absence of biological aging, such as reducing functional decline in organs and whole-body fitness, delaying loss of reproductive capabilities, and delaying death risk with age progression. What we really want is to extend youth, not aging. In achieving that, we may begin to push the envelope on increasing healthy lifespan. 

    Aging at the cellular level is determined by the cellular rate of damage versus rate of repair. Accumulation of aging-associated damage manifests as cells no longer “behaving correctly” as part of a collective that make up tissues of an organ, like cancer cells.

    In healthy individuals, damage accumulation is managed through apoptosis, which is controlled cell death, and refined cellular housekeeping including autophagy and mitophagy; the “eating up, breaking down, and recycling” of damaged inner-cell (intracellular) components (organelles). The nutrient glucose and the hormone insulin govern cellular quality control. Intracellular housekeeping enables the culling of inefficient and toxic cells from the herd. Over time a cell’s ability to trigger apoptosis becomes impaired, enabling gradual dysfunction to sneak by under the radar. Over time, the accumulation of these dysfunctional cells within an organ promotes development of disease. 

    Humans are multicellular organisms within which our healthy cells operate collectively. In order to have a long healthy lifespan, our cells must not only live longer, but they must also function correctly. Cancer cells are long-lived and capable of unlimited replication; however, they evade apoptosis, and become selfishly primordial, regressing back to single-cell organism behaviour. Our goal is to maintain optimal organ function, ensuring ourselves a long healthspan with negligible senescence and perhaps a touch of immortality.

    Mitochondria are intracellular organelles; these organelles are remnant symbiotic protobacteria, originating from proteobacterium that came to live within an archaeal-derived host cell which was most closely related to Asgard archaea (a recently identified group of ancient single-celled organisms). Put simply, a foreign single-celled ancient bacteria came to live inside the cells that eventually evolved into us. The Asgardian endocytosed proteobacteria evolved into mitochondria; through a process called endosymbiosis the two became interdependent. They now support us and we support them. Our cells, with mitochondria and other organelles within them, are called ‘eukaryotic’ cells. 

    Mitochondria have their own genome; polycistronic circular DNA, whilst their inner matrix membranes are rich in a phospholipid cardiolipin. Both of these features are common to bacteria and not to the eukaryotic nuclear DNA and other organelles of multicellular animals, other than those digesting mitochondria. Mitochondria produce the majority of our life-sustaining energy whilst also acting as a source of destruction for most of our cells. This occurs due to their use of oxygen to break down nutrients, in order to capture energy and store it in the energy carrier molecule ATP. Their (and so our) need and use of oxygen is both life-giving and corrosive; complete oxidation of glucose produces more oxidative damage than oxidising fatty acids, and in the process produces excess superoxide, a form of oxygen with an added electron which is termed a free radical.

    Mitochondria also produce hydrogen peroxide, the same found in your household drain cleaner, albeit at a much lower concentration. Chronic low-grade elevated levels of reactive oxygen species (ROS) harm our cells. Achieving balance between “burning” glucose or fatty acids requiring oxygen to provide energy for our body (good) and producing corrosive substances (bad), is hormesis, like the “Goldilocks zone.” ROS toxicity is a key player in aging, as too much of it will decrease healthspan and lifespan. 

    The majority of ROS in cells is produced by mitochondria. Some amount is necessary for health, while excess causes damage; again, this requires balance or hormesis. ROS are also mitochondrial-signalling molecules, communicating to the nucleus and altering gene expression. This begs the question; what drives cellular behaviour, genes in the nucleus, or mitochondrial signals? The right amount of ROS causes production of new healthier mitochondria, excessive ROS increases damage over repair, accumulating toxic wayward mitochondria. Cancer cells consistently have damaged mitochondria; the same is also found in cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer’s, and Parkinson’s disease, and many of the diseases that we have just accepted as part of aging.

    As mentioned above, we can produce energy from fat or from glucose (a sugar) through our cooperative mitochondria. The amount of glucose exposure (predominantly from dietary sources and also made and secreted into the bloodstream by the liver) is critical in achieving this balance between our mitochondria helping or harming us. Insulin is produced in response to carbohydrate intake (sugars such as glucose, starch, and sucrose), increasing absorption (and use) of glucose by our cells and mitochondria and reducing fat-burning (beta-oxidation and subsequent ketosis).

    To simplify, we mostly use either glucose from carbohydrates to produce energy with our mitochondria, or fatty acids from food or our fat cells, or ketones from breakdown of fat, to produce energy through an alternative metabolic pathway, called ketosis.

    Calorie restriction (carbohydrate restriction) in yeast, nematode worms, and mice to primates increases lifespan with healthspan by inducing ketosis. It causes insulin to become low enough to allow ketogenesis (a product from beta-oxidation, the burning of fat) to occur. Upregulated fat-burning results in the production of molecules called ketone bodies, mainly by the liver (endogenous synthesis).

    One of these ketone bodies is beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHB), derived from fatty acids that come either from our fat cells or from a meal. The ketone BHB is a fuel and signalling molecule, causing mitochondria and nuclei to adapt to metabolic changes. Fasting-mimicking diets such as time-restricted feeding, and very low carbohydrate/healthy fat diets (also known as ketogenic diets) also induce ketosis without the conscious effort of calorie restriction. 

    These diets high in healthy fats (such as animal fats) and low in sugars/starchy carbohydrates lead to decreased insulin and glucose and increased ketones (BHB) in the bloodstream. Over time this induces intracellular machinery changes, shifting the body’s metabolism to fuelling itself mainly off fat and ketones instead of sugar (glucose). Ketosis increases intracellular housekeeping activity, enabling cells to remove and replace damaged organelles. It also allows more time for DNA to be checked by DNA housekeeping proteins that are able to prevent propagation of DNA duplication errors into daughter cells, thus reducing cancer and other age-related disease development. Ketosis has been shown to hold a hint of an elixir to a healthier if not longer life. 

    In contrast, high carbohydrate diets, providing glucose through starchy carbohydrates like bread, pasta, rice, corn, and sucrose found in cane sugar, high fructose corn syrup, coconut sugar, fruit, and honey, all stimulate insulin secretion. Prolonged hyperinsulinaemia increases the risk of development of Alzheimer’s disease, malignancies, cardiovascular disease, and T2DM. While insulin is essential to life, excess insulin (due to these high carbohydrate diets) leads to hyperinsulinaemia, which is implicated in chronic diseases and aging. Decreased insulin demand is shown to increase healthspan and lifespan. Insulin also causes cells to replicate faster, decreasing the pauses to check DNA copy quality, telling cells that food is abundant and therefore “there is no need to keep a tight ship.” 

    Insulin is the aging hormone, and a dietary pattern that regularly triggers too much insulin secretion prevents our ability to produce ketones, including BHB. Insulin suppresses ketogenesis (ketone production), depriving us of BHB’s anti-aging properties. The endogenous production of BHB, a powerful antioxidant that directly neutralises free radicals and ROS, has been shown to improve and prevent chronic diseases associated with aging conditions. So, we can control much of our aging by our dietary choices. Ketones such as BHB are produced when we are not overstimulating insulin secretion and requirement through our dietary choices. 

    We are often advised to eat to keep up our energy and health. However, perhaps a little less results in a little more with regards to healthspan and lifespan, and instead of calorie restriction, we can bio-hack through either eating as much as we want once a day, or eating non-insulin-stimulating foods. Doing both will further enhance their effects. The results are the same as fasting and calorie restriction, less insulin, and more ketones, in turn translating into healthier cells, a healthy you, and a chance to realise your maximal lifespan potential.

    *  *  *

    Link to donate to support Isabella D. Cooper’s research in Ageing Biology, Age-Related Diseases, and Longevity at the University of Westminster, UK. This is one of few academic research groups in the diet and metabolism area free from food industry sponsorship. One hundred percent of donation funds go towards active laboratory-based research, with zero funds lost to administrative costs.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 21:45

  • NextEra "Evaluating" Restart Of Iowa's Only Nuclear Plant As 'Next AI Trade' Gains Steam
    NextEra “Evaluating” Restart Of Iowa’s Only Nuclear Plant As ‘Next AI Trade’ Gains Steam

    Following the news of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant restart near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and the Biden administration supplying a $1.5 billion loan to resurrect Holtec’s Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan, along with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google all jumping on the nuclear trade via the “next AI trade,” the atomic era continues blasting off with news that another dormant nuclear plant, this time in Iowa, is slated for a possible restart.

    On a Wednesday earnings call, NextEra Energy CEO John Ketchum told investors that the company may restart the shuttered 600-megawatt Duane Arnold Energy Center (DAEC), Iowa’s only nuclear power plant. It’s located on the west bank of the Cedar River, about eight miles northwest of Cedar Rapids. 

    Earnings call… 

    “As a top operator of all forms of power generation, we often get asked about nuclear and gas,” Ketchum told investors. 

    He explained, “Let me start with nuclear. Nuclear will play a role, but there are some practical limitations. Remember, on a national level, we expect we are going to need to add 900 gigawatts of new generation to the grid by 2040,” adding, “There are only a few nuclear plants that can be recommissioned in an economic way. We are currently evaluating the recommissioning of our Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa as one example.” 

    DAEC began operations in early 1975 and operated for decades. In August 2020, the facility’s cooling towers were damaged in a weather-related event, and repairs were deemed uneconomical. NextEra owns about a 70% stake in DAEC.

    Jefferies analyst Dumoulin Smith told clients in a note that DAEC would be costly to restart…

    “We believe a Duane Arnold restart is challenging, given the plant damage and robust regional wind generation.”

    Bloomberg quoted NextEra Energy President Rebecca Kujawa as saying that DAEC’s potential customers could include two Fortune 50 customers: 

    “This is a robust sign of a significant, broad-based demand,” Kujawa said on the call. “They have big, important and urgent energy needs.” 

    The latest news from big tech firms diving into nuclear and reviving the industry provides a substantial tailwind for our “Next AI Trade” which we laid out in April as our long-term favorite trade, and where we outlined various investment opportunities for powering up America, playing out.

    Here’s our latest coverage of the big atomic revival:

    Let’s take a step back to December 2020, nearly four years ago, when we first introduced the nuclear theme to readers with the headline: “Buy Uranium: Is This The Beginning Of The Next ESG Craze.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 21:20

  • Rural Landowner Sues After State Searches Property Without Warrant Or Consent
    Rural Landowner Sues After State Searches Property Without Warrant Or Consent

    By Chris Bennett of AgWeb

    Twice accused, twice vindicated, and twice insistent on the sanctity of the Fourth Amendment. After Tim Thomas’ property was entered and searched on multiple occasions by state officials without warrant or consent in 2023, he filed a federal lawsuit challenging the power of water conservation officers to access private property.

    “All other law enforcement officials at every level must have a warrant to do what a water conservation officer did around my house,” says 62-year-old Thomas. “I’m suing to get a law changed because this should never happen to anyone else. I want people to know what’s gone on at my property, and to my family, and how our rights were trampled.”

    Wherever and Whenever?

    On May 13, 2023, Thomas’ wife, Stephanie, was alone inside the couple’s single-story lakeside cottage at the end of a gravel road on the shoreline of 80-acre Butler Lake in Pennsylvania’s Susquehanna County. Their property encompassed less than 1 acre of ground, including a dock and 300’ of shoreline.

    Together, the couple owned Thomas’ Chimneys & Stoves in nearby Kingsley. “We had the business for 42 years,” Thomas says. “I’ve always respected the law and done my best to serve the community as a deacon and citizen. People are blown away when they hear what happened on our quiet property.”

    Pennsylvania statue allows PFBC to enter property without consent, probable cause, or warrant—with no limits on duration, frequency, or scope.
    (Photo by IJ)

    Diagnosed with breast cancer in 2022, Stephanie was non-ambulatory during a period of recovery following a round of stage 4 treatment. According to the complaint filed in Thomas’ subsequent lawsuit via representation by Institute for Justice (IJ), Stephanie heard someone loudly knocking on the front door of the cottage. The individual then went around the side of the house, past no-trespassing signs, entered the back yard, walked onto the back porch, and began “pounding” on the back door. Stephanie did not know the individual at her doorstep was Water Conservation Officer (WCO) Ty Moon of the Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission (PFBC).

    Alarmed, Stephanie used a walker to retreat to a bedroom. Per the complaint: “While pounding on the front and back doors of the cabin, WCO Moon yelled, ‘I know you’re in there,’ and ‘I’m going to call the police.’”

    (Citing open litigation, PFBC declined comment related to Tim Thomas’ lawsuit.)

    “She peeked through the drapes and saw a man she didn’t know in dark clothes yelling, and she managed to get into our room,” Thomas describes.

    While Stephanie hid, Moon peered in the windows and then moved about the property, according to Thomas, taking pictures of the home, motor vehicle, and pontoon boat.

    The ball began rolling on a steady chain of glaring constitutional violations, contends IJ attorney Kirby West: “The government cannot go wherever and whenever it wants—that’s the very reason for the Fourth Amendment in the first place. We see a lot of cases where government goes overboard, but this statute is the plainest example I’ve seen that contradicts the Fourth Amendment on its face.”

    Search, Seizure, Citation

    On Mother’s Day, May 14, a day after WCO Moon entered their property, the Thomas duo stopped roadside, roughly 1 mile from home. “We were on our way back from church and I pulled over to pick Stephanie her favorite flowers—lilacs,” Thomas recalls.

    “In memory of my wife, and to ensure no other families are dealt with by the state like this, I’m making a stand,” says Thomas.

    “As I was picking, a white truck pulled in front of us, and a tall man I didn’t know came angrily towards me, shouting that he’d seen me fishing the day before and claiming I had refused to talk to him. He got up close and started yelling in my face that he’d ‘get to the bottom of things,’ but I had done nothing wrong and had no idea what he was talking about. Other than the knocks on the door the day prior, this was the first time either Stephanie or myself had met or even heard of Ty Moon.”

    Four days later, a PFBC citation arrived in the mail, accusing Thomas of fishing without a license and fleeing on May 13: Def. did willfully refuse to bring boat to a stop, flee after given an audible signal. Thereafter, attempted to elude a WCO.

    “We were accused of trying to get away from Ty Moon while fishing. It was preposterous,” Thomas says. “My wife with stage 4 cancer fleeing from the law on the water? Supposedly Moon was onshore, and we fled by boat. We never saw him, don’t know where he was standing, and certainly didn’t run away. Bottom line, the charges were bogus, but that’s why he came knocking later at our house.”

    Since age 12, Thomas had obtained Pennsylvania hunting and fishing licenses. He had never been ticketed for a wildlife violation in his life—until May 2023.

    In response to the citation and a fine nearing $462, Thomas telephoned Moon’s superiors and sent a letter of complaint to Captain Tom Edwards, manager of PFBC’s northwest region. Edwards personally called Thomas; all charges were dropped.

    “I considered it over,” Thomas says. “My wife didn’t. She told me, ‘Whatever is going on, I don’t think he (Moon) is through with you.’”

    Several months later, Moon was back on Thomas’ property for another search, seizure, and citation.

    Vendetta?

    At roughly 9 a.m., on Aug. 12, 2023, Thomas piloted his pontoon boat home after fishing on Lake Butler.

    As Thomas pulled to his dock, WCO Moon approached Thomas’ property on foot, walked along the driveway to the side of the cabin, entered the back yard via a gap between bushes and structure, and passed by a bathroom window—ignoring a total of four no-trespassing signs, according to the complaint.

    “I’m willing to invest whatever time it takes so nobody else has to go through the loss of basic constitutional rights,” says Thomas.

    Arriving at the dock, Moon accused Thomas of exceeding regulation by fishing with eight rods/lines. “Untrue charges,” Thomas says. “But in that moment, Ty Moon’s charges weren’t my main concern. I was worried about Stephanie.”

    In accessing the back yard, Moon had walked by a window where Thomas’ wife was bathing. “The house was our sanctuary after Stephanie was diagnosed, and because of the way we set up the bushes and landscaping, the bathroom provided her with a place to soak and look out at the scenery in total privacy with the curtains open, just inside the window in a clawfoot tub—the same window where a state water officer had just come within an arm’s length.”

    “I wanted him off our property and away from the window where my wife—a cancer patient—was exposed.”

    Thomas informed Moon he was trespassing, and insisted on continuing the conversation on the public road. Once the men were out of the back yard and on the edge of the driveway, Moon asked for Thomas’ fishing license and boat registration. Thomas provided the license. However, the registration was inside the boat.

    Thomas offered to get the registration. Moon declined, announcing his intention to reenter the back yard to obtain the paperwork and perform a safety inspection on the boat. Despite Thomas’ protests, Moon walked back to the dock and boat. Moon returned—and then announced he need to return to the dock a third time to confiscate Thomas’ fishing rods.

    “Three times,” Thomas says, “with me telling him no, over and over. Three violations of our private space while my wife was dying. Officer Moon knew my wife was a cancer patient because I told him. It’s hard to describe the frustration and needless abuse of power.”

    After confiscating Thomas’ rods, Moon ended the encounter with a $354 citation for fishing with eight rods/lines: Def. did fish with more than the maximum amount of devices while in Commonwealth waters.

    Thomas says the charges are false. “Officer Moon said he’d been watching me with binoculars since around 8 a.m. from a boat ramp several hundred yards away and could see eight lines in the water. No way, period. I had three lines in the water and no more. And who believes he just happened to be on the shore, just passing by the area, on tiny Butler Lake? I suspect he had a vendetta against me; that’s my opinion.”

    29 Hours

    In November 2023, several months after the second citation, Thomas appeared in Magisterial court. The PFBC citation stated Thomas had eight lines in the water—therefore Thomas owed $354. Case closed.

    “The evidence didn’t matter,” Thomas says. “I was supposed to accept the fine and shut up. No. I place the highest value on individual liberty and there are tremendous repercussion effects when the government abuses power.”

    Beyond his main vocation as a chimney business owner, Thomas often drove for Lyft and Uber. After the criminal citation was filed, he automatically lost both driving jobs—banned by both companies due to the legal violation.

    Thomas appealed the PFBC citation to a Commonwealth court. On June 5, 2024, Thomas’ case was heard. “The judge actually was interested to know all the evidence, and when he heard what Moon claimed to have seen and what Moon did, he knew things weren’t adding up. We won—for the second time.”

    However, Thomas’ court victory was bookended by the heaviest blow of his life: 29 hours after the judge’s decision, Stephanie lost her cancer battle and passed away.

    “In memory of my wife, and to ensure no other families are dealt with by the state like this, I’m making a stand,” Thomas says. “In open court, out loud, Officer Moon said he wasn’t bound by no-trespassing signs, and said he had a mandate to go anywhere. He is wrong because private property is sacred. The Fourth Amendment and its protection from search and seizure is the only thing standing between us and tyranny.”

    No Monetary Gain

    According to 12 words of Pennsylvania state code, PFBC officials have authority to “enter upon any land or water in the performance of their duties.” The statue provides wide latitude for PFBC to enter onto any property without consent, probable cause, or warrant—with no limits on duration, frequency, or scope.

    Represented by Institute for Justice (IJ), Thomas sued PFBC in September 2024.

    The PFBC statute provides water conservation officers with more latitude than all other types of law enforcement, says IJ attorney West. Even the wide-ranging Open Fields doctrine (currently under legal challenge in multiple states) denies government representatives the power to enter curtilage—the greater yard area surrounding a home. Yet, PFBC asserts power beyond Open Fields.

    “The Commission believes these types of invasions, such as happened at Tim Thomas’, are within their law enforcement powers,” West adds, “but when people first hear about Tim’s case, it doesn’t make sense to them because they know it’s an obvious violation of the Fourth Amendment.”

    Thomas and Institute for Justice await an answer from PFBC to the initial lawsuit filing.

    “There is no monetary gain for me to fight this, I only want this statute declared unconstitutional, so the next landowner or homeowner is protected,” Thomas concludes. “Our framers would roll in their graves to see this case, and I’m willing to invest whatever time it takes so nobody else has to go through the loss of basic constitutional rights.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 20:55

  • "Artificial Gut Intelligence" Comes To Your Toilet 
    “Artificial Gut Intelligence” Comes To Your Toilet 

    A new Austin, Texas-based health startup sells a camera with artificial intelligence software that monitors gut health by snapping pictures of feces.

    “Throne is a first-of-its-kind health solution that allows you to track your gut health and hydration from the comfort and privacy of your own home,” Throne wrote on its website, calling its camera that clips on the side of a toilet bowl “artificial gut intelligence.”

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    The website continued, explaining the device uses a “downward-facing camera that sits elegantly on the edge of your toilet bowl, capturing essential health insights and nothing else.” 

    The device collects poop data, using AI to analyze each image, aiming to determine if the user is hydrated, how well expensive vitamins and probiotics are absorbed, and whether there are any unique food sensitivities or intolerances based on the composition of the stool. 

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    The focus is mainly on an aging population and those with chronic digestive conditions, such as inflammatory bowel diseases, that are surging in the population, likely because of processed foods. 

    So does ‘AGI’ really mean ‘artificial gut intelligence’ or ‘artificial general intelligence’ ?.. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 20:30

  • A Much-Needed Bonfire Of Regulations
    A Much-Needed Bonfire Of Regulations

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

    The word deregulation is back, thanks mostly to Elon Musk’s strong emphasis on this as essential to restoring America’s prosperity. There are too many regulations, too many laws, too many rules. Of that there is surely universal agreement. No one approves of the unfathomable, convoluted, expensive, and internally contradictory thicket that has emerged over the decades.

    In fact, Justice Neil Gorsuch has a new book with the title “Over Ruled.” It is outstanding with a focus on all the ways in which government imposition hobbles the freedom we are supposed to be guaranteed in the United States.

    “The truth is, something’s happening in our country,” he writes.

    “Law is multiplying, and its demands are growing increasingly complex. So much so that ordinary people are often caught by surprise, and even seasoned lawyers, lawmakers, and (yes) judges sometimes struggle to make sense of it all.”

    “At the most basic level, law in our country has simply exploded. Think Congress is wracked by an inability to pass legislation? Less than a hundred years ago, all of the federal government’s statutes fit into a single volume. By 2018, the U.S. Code encompassed 54 volumes and approximately 60,000 pages. Over the last decade, Congress has adopted an average of 344 new pieces of legislation each session. That amounts to about 2 to 3 million words of new federal law each year. Even the length of bills has grown—from an average of around 2 pages in the 1950s to 18 today.”

    “Still, these figures from Congress only begin to tell the story. Federal agencies have been busy, too. They write new rules and regulations implementing or interpreting Congress’s laws. Many bear the force of law.”

    Years ago, I began to notice how household items were not working anymore. The showerheads are federally regulated to restrict flow, as are the toilets and garbage disposals. The mandated designs and blueprints make all the products worse.

    The new gas cans are awful, while the old ones sell for a premium. I was mowing the lawn and found that it kept getting clogged because of a lack of airflow. Sure enough, the functioning was hobbled by safety regulations that forced the cage ever lower to the grass surface, to the point that the machine does not do what it is supposed to do.

    Indeed, it is hard to think of a single product you use that is not trapped in some kind of forced design emanating from a federal bureaucracy. This pertains to everything in your house but also to every business, all the way down to the fabric of the aprons in every restaurant. These are just federal laws but state and local ones also add to the burden.

    Ask any real estate developer and he will tell you the reason for the housing shortage.

    It comes down to extreme controls on every single step in hiring and building. The customer ends up paying in two ways: higher prices and less choice.

    Gorsuch notes: “If you’re a budding pasta entrepreneur, take note: by federal decree, macaroni must have a diameter between 1.1 and .27 inches, while vermicelli must not be more than .06 inches in diameter. Both may contain egg whites—but those egg whites cannot constitute more than two percent of the weight of the finished product.”

    Every product in the grocery store is regulated this way. Ever wondered why the meat stock you buy at the store is mostly water with not much stock? That is heavily regulated. As I’ve pointed out before, the United States is one of the few countries in the world that requires eggs to be washed before being sold, which means that they have to be refrigerated. First-time visitors to the United States are amazed at this.

    It’s true with meat: it is simply not possible to raise a cow and sell the meat without jumping through many regulatory hoops and using independent processors. This has benefitted agri-business but has been very harmful for small farmers. Small farmers suffer daily because of this.

    Elon himself has told stories about how his Starship launches are routinely delayed by crazy mandates. His recent launch-and-catch had to be delayed for studies on how the landing would impact the sharks, the whales, and the hearing of the seals. And that’s just the start of it. All of Elon’s companies are facing an astonishing blizzard of attacks from agencies.

    Truly, there are no words to describe the reach and scope of the regulatory state. It’s a minefield with no map and danger with every step. If you have ever attempted to start a business, you know. Every industry faces huge compliance costs. It’s not just capital you have to spend. You need lawyers. You need consultants. You need, above all, time, and lots of it.

    People imagine they will go into business only to discover that the vast amount of their focus is not on serving the customer but on compliance and administrative red tape. Just try hiring one employee from New York, for example.

    The array of bureaucracies who want a piece of you will amaze you. They all charge for everything they do. They will send letters demanding more with no end in sight. And this is just for one employee. Once the staff grows so do the mandates and the legal risks.

    You no doubt have stories of friends who attempted to start a business and gave up. I know of many.

    The bureaucracies simply cannot sit still. They make new rules and regulations daily if only to foil industry, with not a care about what it costs or the impact on economic growth and job creation. The United States has created whole industries entirely devoted to smoothing compliance.

    The word “deregulation” doesn’t quite describe the fullness of what we need. The United States needs a raging bonfire of regulatory codes, one that should last for months. What is the path to achieving that? As Gorsuch says, it is not up to the judiciary to make a fundamental difference. That is the job of the legislatures.

    In the late 1970s, there was a bipartisan consensus to deregulate three industries: trucking, energy, and telecommunications. All three initiatives were a huge success and the prosperity of the 1980s is owed to these emancipations.

    The reason the word “deregulation” fell into disrepute is due to the financial deregulation of 1983, which freed up the banking sector which caught blame for every crisis that followed from the S&L debacle to the 2008 financial crisis. There is a strong reason to believe the assignment of blame here is correct. The problem traces to the doctrine of too-big-to-fail made possible by the Federal Reserve.

    There will always be problems with deregulation so long as the government’s printing presses are still in operation. Sadly, these issues added some discredit to the whole idea of deregulation.

    Another point to remember: you can still have the good kind of regulation in absence of government intervention. Every professional field has an oversight organization that certifies credentials even apart from any government mandate. And consider the role of Underwriters Laboratory (UI), founded in 1894 and still in wide operation with more credibility on safety than any government agency.

    Even if dozens of agencies were abolished, there would be private associations still around to regulate but they will do so with a market-based focus, the way UI does today.

    Another market-based form of regulation is reputation. When you buy online, do you look at reviews? Of course you do. This is a method by which quality is assured in our times. User ratings have a much larger role in our buying decisions than any administrative edict.

    In other words, deregulation does not mean anything goes. It means that society itself is in the position to provide market standards of quality. If the federal Food and Drug Administration were abolished, for example, we might well end up with safer food and more effective drugs. For one thing, all the indemnifications for vaccines would disappear, making companies legally liable for damages.

    There is an ongoing controversy to figure out what to do about agency capture wherein the largest private companies operate a revolving door with the regulators and game the system against startups. The best and most effective answer to agency capture is simple: eliminate the agency and the laws and legislation that sustain them.

    We should all be thrilled about the new push for another round of genuine deregulation. Agency compliance is too expensive, too arduous, and too ubiquitously threatening for free enterprise to thrive. In an ideal world, the government would only do what is mentioned in the Constitution and nothing more. That would mean cutting back the regulatory state by 90 percent or more.

    This is not possible in four years but something has to give. We need a dramatic turn against force and toward freedom in the management of our economic lives.

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 20:05

  • US & Israeli Spy Chiefs Head To Doha To Restart Gaza Ceasefire Talks
    US & Israeli Spy Chiefs Head To Doha To Restart Gaza Ceasefire Talks

    Is the expected Israeli attack on Iran on hold until at least after the weekend? It sure looks that way…

    “Mossad chief David Barnea will travel to Doha on Sunday to try to restart discussions on a deal to release Israeli hostages held in Gaza and halt the war between Israel and Palestinian terror group Hamas,” Israeli media reports Thursday.

    CIA chief Bill Burns is also headed to the Gulf, where Secretary of State Antony Blinken is already holding meetings with allied Gulf officials in Doha.

    Mossad Director David Barnea (left) & CIA Director William Burns in 2021. source: GPO

    Netanyahu’s office has confirmed that the Mossad chief will meet with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, alongside the CIA’s Burns.

    “At the meeting, the parties will discuss the various options for advancing the negotiations for the release of the hostages held by Hamas, against the backdrop of recent developments,” the Israeli prime minister’s office said.

    On and off negotiations of the past several months made zero progress, which each side blaming the other for thwarting the potential for ceasefire in Gaza.

    These new expected weekend efforts seem doomed to the same fate – the only difference being that Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar is dead.

    This raises a crucial question: who is calling the shots on the Hamas side? Speculation has landed on the man who has been the main political spokesman in the wake of Sinwar’s death in Rafah earlier this month:

    The officials said that Khalil al-Hayya, Sinwar’s deputy and the group’s most senior official outside Gaza, is considered a strong candidate.

    Al-Hayya, who is based in Qatar, currently leads the Hamas delegation in ceasefire talks between the group and Israel, and possesses a deep knowledge, connection and understanding of the situation in Gaza.

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    Kickstarting these new high level negotiations again could just be a political tactic by Netanyahu and Mossad, given the ongoing pressure from the hostage victims’ families to get the captives freed.

    There’s also the US election, less than two weeks away, and the Biden-Harris administration perhaps needs to show some level of a diplomatic ‘win’ or at least ‘progress’ that they can put before the voting public. But amid very heavy fighting in northern Gaza, and reports of famine spreading in the south, all of this seems too little too late.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 19:40

  • UN Report: Women Have Lost 900 Medals To 'Transgender' Athletes
    UN Report: Women Have Lost 900 Medals To ‘Transgender’ Athletes

    Authored by Eric Lendrum via American Greatness,

    A new report from the United Nations reveals that almost 900 medals that should have gone to female athletes have instead been awarded to biological men who believe themselves to be “transgender.”

    As reported by Fox News, the report was carried out by Reem Alsalem, the UN Rapporteur on Violence Against Women.

    The findings were titled “Violence against women and girls in sports.”

    Alsalem reveals that over 600 athletes failed to receive medals in over 400 competitions across 29 different sports, with the total amount of lost medals being just over 890.

    “The replacement of the female sports category with a mixed-sex category has resulted in an increasing number of female athletes losing opportunities, including medals, when competing against males,” his report states.

    The information collected for the study goes up to March 30th of this year.

    In the most recent example, the Ladies Professional Golf Association (LPGA) approved the participation of a male golfer in the most recent tournament, despite 275 female golfers signing onto an open letter denouncing the decision as unfair to women.

    Elsewhere, San Jose State University’s volleyball team has faced four different forfeitures by rival teams due to the team’s decision to allow a male to compete on the women’s team.

    The male player, who goes by the name Blaire Fleming, recently spiked a volleyball right into a rival team member’s face with extremely violent force, drawing attention to the disparity between the strength of women and the strength of biological men.

    As a result of Fleming’s participation, San Jose State player Brooke Slusser has joined a lawsuit against the NCAA, claiming that she was forced to share a locker room and a bedroom with Fleming without being told that Fleming is a male.

    “This is huge, especially coming from the UN…” Riley Gaines told “Fox and Friends” on Wednesday.

    “One girl being exploited in locker rooms, one girl being injured in their sport is one too many.”

    Amid growing backlash, there have been numerous efforts to crack down on so-called “transgender” participation in sports, across several international sports bodies as well as over two dozen American states.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 19:15

  • San Francisco Hit With Credit Downgrade Over CRE Apocalypse
    San Francisco Hit With Credit Downgrade Over CRE Apocalypse

    Moody’s Investors Service downgraded San Francisco’s credit rating, indicating the city’s sluggish recovery from the virus pandemic and the ongoing tech exodus, wreaking havoc on the commercial real estate market. Not mentioned in the report is the crime and chaos sparked by disastrous policies pushed forward by radical leftists in City Hall, which have only transformed some parts of the city into third-world conditions.

    Bloomberg reports that Moody’s downgraded San Fran’s credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa. This might trigger an avalanche of other downgrades from credit rating agencies in the weeks and or months ahead. Both S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings maintain AAA grades as of Wednseday. 

    Analysts at Moody’s explained their decision for the downgrade:

    “The sea change in office employment to a hybrid work model and reduction in commuting to the city’s office core have led to reduced economic activity, very high vacancy rates, and depressed rents.” 

    The credit rating downgrade is just the latest challenge facing Mayor London Breed, who recently had to close a $789 million deficit in a new two-year budget cycle. This downgrade will only make it more expensive for the city, plagued with violent crime and chaos because of failed progressive policies, to borrow in the municipal bond market.

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    A 2022 report from the city’s top economist forecasted that persistently low office occupancy could cause the city to lose $200 million in property tax revenue by 2028. 

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    In June, Barclays analysts told clients, “While we are not overly concerned about San Francisco’s credit quality, it will likely experience credit pressure for the foreseeable future, which could negatively affect the city’s ratings, as well as the ratings of some of its related credits.” 

    Those analysts said real estate property taxes represent about 60% of the city’s local tax revenue, and they warn that revenues won’t move much higher through the end of the decade. This might suggest that the deficit explodes from here = higher taxes = more exodus. 

    Here’s our latest reporting on the CRE mess in the metro area: 

    As long as Democrats are in charge of San Francisco, the metro area is locked in a doom loop that should only worsen. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 18:50

  • Victor Davis Hanson: Kamala's Inane Talking Points
    Victor Davis Hanson: Kamala’s Inane Talking Points

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

    As Vice President Kamala Harris slips in the polls, the Democratic National Committee/Harris Campaign/mainstream media fusion talking points become even more absurd.

    Claiming that J.D. Vance and Donald Trump were “weird” did not work—especially given the genuinely odd behavior of vice presidential candidate Tim Walz and would-be First Gentleman Doug Emhoff.

    Nor was the next Harris meme convincing that the frenetic and non-stop Trump was somehow “exhausted,” “senile,” and “confused.”

    Voters know the workdays of the younger Harris are usually far shorter—or sometimes not workdays at all.

    But Harris also falsely claimed the physically and mentally challenged Biden was, in her words, “absolutely authoritative” and “very bold and vibrant.”

    Now Harris asserts that Trump is a “fascist,” a “dictator,” and “unfit” for office. But this new talking point will also not stop the Harris campaign’s hemorrhaging—and for a variety of reasons.

    First, voters see the election as a conflict of two absolutely antithetical visions.

    On the one hand, is the prior Trump 2017-20 concrete record: border security, no major wars abroad, calm in the Middle East, a deterred Russia, Iran, and China, low inflation, low interest rates, lower crime, lower taxes, strong deterrent military—and opposition to mandatory electric vehicle mandates, biological males competing in women’s sports, and the woke/DEI agenda.

    On the other hand, is the Biden-Harris 2021-2024 record: the unchecked entry of 12-20 million illegal aliens and a destroyed border. People still struggle under Biden-Harris’s earlier hyperinflation and high interest rates. The horrific regional wars in Ukraine and the Middle East continue. Biden-Harris embraces the unpopular DEI/Woke agenda.

    Harris herself knows that the Biden-Harris years were a failure. That is why she has shed almost all of their hard left-wing agendas—policies she has embraced for much of her adult life.

    So suddenly, in the last 90 or so days, Harris has completely flipped and flopped.

    Now she is for more of, not defunding, the police. She pivots for a secure border, not 20 million illegal aliens pouring across it. Harris brags about fossil fuel energy, not banning fracking, and for increasing, not cutting, defense.

    In fact, several endangered incumbent Democrat senators in swing states are claiming more allegiance to Trump’s issues than identifying with Harris and her unpopular record as vice president.

    Voters likely conclude that if Trump doubles down on his record, while even Harris and many senators temporarily piggyback on it, then it must be more effective and popular than Harris’s own.

    Second, Harris now claims Trump is a fascist and insurrectionist.

    But mouthing ad nausaem “January 6th” no longer persuades voters that Trump is a danger to anyone. They recall that Harris bragged of the far more violent demonstrations of 2020—35 killed, $2 billion in damage, 1,500 law enforcement officers injured, 14,000 arrested—that the unrest would not and “should not” stop, while drumming up support to bail out jailed violent protestors.

    Nor does the slur that Trump is a fascist resonate. The Obama and Biden-Harris administrations weaponized the CIA and FBI to interfere in the 2016 and 2020 elections by peddling the fake Steele dossier and suppressing all the embarrassing news about Hunter Biden’s incriminating laptop.

    Trump certainly did not coordinate, as Biden did, with local, state, and federal prosecutors to wage lawfare prosecutions to destroy his political opponents. He did not use the FBI to partner with social media to suppress the news.

    Neither Trump nor his supporters tried to remove Biden from state ballots.

    The Republican House majority did not impeach Biden twice despite the Biden family’s corruption and Joe Biden’s unlawful, decades-long removal of classified papers to several insecure private residences.

    Trump and the Republicans never coercively removed the party’s primary-winning nominee. They did not nullify the will of 14 million primary voters. And in backroom fashion, they did not anoint a candidate who had never entered a single primary in her life.

    Nor did Trump support packing the Supreme Court. He does not seek unconstitutional means of destroying the Electoral College. He is not demanding an end to the Senate filibuster or the creation of two new states to obtain four partisan senate seats.

    Third, as for Trump being “unfit” and lacking “decorum,” it depends on what were the Biden-Harris standards?

    Having a trans activist reveal his breasts on camera at a White House “pride party?”

    Biden’s reportedly calling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “a f—ing idiot” and “son of a b—ch?” Bragging about locking Trump up, while waging lawfare against him?

    Unleashing son Hunter Biden with impunity to shake down foreign governments?

    The election will not be decided on these empty talking points or fake media-generated narratives.

    Instead, only two criteria matter: Which candidate’s past record and current agenda best appeal to voters? And which candidate seems the most authentic and genuine?

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 18:25

  • People Are Back And "Demanding Beach Front Houses" Days After Florida Ravaged By Hurricanes
    People Are Back And “Demanding Beach Front Houses” Days After Florida Ravaged By Hurricanes

    Everybody said no one would want to wind up back in Florida after it was ravaged by two hurricanes this month…and once again, it looks like “everyone” is wrong.

    Such was the conclusion of a recent Bloomberg article which detailed “one of the largest real estate brokerages in Boca Grande, a village on Florida’s Gasparilla Island” which has seen immediate demand following the storms. 

    “We’re already having people calling, investors, some bottom fishers, saying, ‘I will buy anything in cash and close in two weeks,’” brokerage founder Michael Saunders told Bloomberg. 

    He added: “People’s memories are short when it comes to the disastrous things that come with a storm. They forget and are right back demanding beach front houses.”

    Milton was the third hurricane to hit the island in two years, the report notes. In 2022, Ian flooded streets and damaged roofs. Helene followed this September, surging through dunes and mangroves, leaving two feet of water in Boca Grande’s shops.

    Just ten days later, Milton struck again, flooding luxury homes, condos, and downtown businesses still recovering from Helene. It knocked out power and water, tore up banyan-lined roads, and left sand drifts around the Gasparilla Inn, a favorite of the Bush presidential family.

    Boca Grande, post-storm / Bloomberg

    The Bloomberg article says that Boca Grande, long associated with old money, saw property values soar during the pandemic, with median home prices more than doubling to $4 million since 2019, per Redfin. However, home sales have recently dropped to a quarter of their 2021 peak, mirroring a 30% decline statewide.

    After Hurricane Milton, Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno flew in by helicopter, offering what he called a “concierge-level” response. Crews quickly cleared five-foot sand drifts, allowing workers to restore power, repair roads, and dig out luxury homes.

    Marceno said: “People needed to know we are here. Our mission was to get this place open, so people could come back to check their property.”

    Glenn Scarpa, owner of restaurant Scarpa’s Coastal, said he’s tired of rebuilding. Milton flooded his restaurant with over three feet of water, hitting before it even dried out from Helene.

    He said: “The boo-hoo period is over, and now I just have to focus on rebuilding my life — again. What more can I do?”

    Down the beach, Milton ended the short-lived revival of South Beach Bar & Grille, which had reopened only weeks after being destroyed by Hurricane Ian. The storm shattered windows, eroded sand, and cracked the foundation. Co-owner Marco Meola fought back tears as he surveyed the damage.

    Meola said: “Hurricane Ian was really devastating, an emotional roller coaster that took a lot of toll on us, and now this. We feel like if we can survive that, we can come back from this.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 18:00

  • McDonalds Where Trump 'Worked' Hires Private Security After Deranged Leftist Threats
    McDonalds Where Trump ‘Worked’ Hires Private Security After Deranged Leftist Threats

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    The McDonald’s franchise in Pennsylvania where president Trump visited and worked a shift, sending leftists into one of the all time seethiest of meltdowns, has been forced to hire private security because of a barrage of threats.

    Trump worked the fry station and served customers at the drive-thru in Bucks County this past weekend, in one of the greatest election stunts ever.

    Now franchise owner, Derek Giacomantonio has had to retain the private security personnel he hired for Trump’s visit to protect his store and staff in the wake of threatening messages and phone calls from TDS sufferers.

    The Daily Caller reports that Trump Jim Worthington, who organised Trump’s visit and led Pennsylvania’s delegation at the Republican National Convention, has revealed “There was chatter…There’s been messaging and phone calling and social media where people have made threats and said they are going to do this or that.”

    One Bucks County resident told the outlet that she visited the McDonalds with her four sons, noting “We walked in. It seemed fine. We ordered and we sat down, but then we looked to our left, and there were several armed guards just sitting there.”

    The resident added, “One of [the guards] stepped outside, and I saw him walking around our car. I thought he was checking if we have our insurance or something…Then [my husband and I] are like, ‘these guys are security;’ ‘these guys are really watching and seeing what’s going on.’ It was then I made the connection [to Trump].” 

    Worthington noted that Mr Giacomantonio, who wisely doesn’t want to do any media appearances, “has maintained the security there at his expense,” adding “I asked him, ‘can we help you defray those costs?’ He said ‘absolutely not. This is, sadly, a cost of doing business, but I value my employees and my customers so I’m willing to bear that cost.’”

    Worthington also stressed that despite the threats, business is booming at the branch, noting “the community is really embracing it, and a lot of people have come in here since Sunday just to patronize the restaurant.”

    He added, “a lot of people anticipated [a boycott] would happen, because that is typical for some Democratic supporters to do, but [the business] hasn’t been hurt.”

    Trump’s visit to the store was so successful that the leftist media is still complaining about it, almost a full week later, as documented in the thread below.

    Click through to see every butthurt story they published.

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 17:40

  • Putin Warns Against 'Illusory' Attempts To Defeat Russia & America's 'Big Mistake' Of Weaponizing Dollar
    Putin Warns Against ‘Illusory’ Attempts To Defeat Russia & America’s ‘Big Mistake’ Of Weaponizing Dollar

    On the final day of the BRICS summit hosted in the Russian city of Kazan, President Vladimir Putin warned that efforts to defeat Russia on the battlefield are “illusory”.

    Moscow’s adversaries “do not conceal their aim to deal our country a strategic defeat,” Putin told the summit. “I will say directly that these are illusory calculations, that can be made only by those who do not know Russia’s history.”

    BRICS family photo

    He described that the Ukraine conflict has essentially become a proxy war, as “Ukraine is being exploited to create critical threats to Russia’s security at the expense of its vital interests.”

    He also said the West is “ignoring… legitimate concerns and violating the rights of Russian-speaking individuals” – in reference especially to the Russian-speaking Donbass region in the East, which Moscow forces have been solidifying control over.

    He also addressed the creation of a stable and fair Eurasian security order, through alliances like BRICS. “The idea is that by joining efforts, we can reliably guarantee genuine stability and create conditions for the peaceful development of all states and peoples on the continent,” Putin stated.

    Turning to the Gaza crisis, he stressed that though Russia stands against terrorism, the region is “on the brink of full-scale war.” He argued that the establishment of an independent Palestine in some form is vital. “Addressing the historical injustice towards the Palestinian people could guarantee peace in the Middle East,” Putin said.

    The BRICS family photo has expanded from year to year, reflecting the admission of new members:

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    He hit upon the familiar them of multipolarity in world affairs, and condemned forces that seek to “dominate everything and everyone.” Of the Western drive to control the world, he described in the Thursday address that “As a result, regional and global strategic stability is eroded, violating the principles of equal and indivisible security and triggering transnational and internal conflicts.”

    And on Washington’s “big mistake” of ‘weaponizing’ the dollar, he said: “The dollar remains the most important instrument of world finance and using it as a means of achieving political goals undermines confidence in this currency and reduces its capabilities.” He explained that Russia is not trying to drop the dollar, but is actually “prevented from working with it” – and so “Then we are forced to look for other alternatives, which is what is happening.”

    Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro had some fiery words related to wars in the Middle East, and called out Israel…

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    China’s President Xi Jinping in addressing the forum said BRICS could be a “stabilizing force for peace.” On the Middle East, he said “We need to continue to push for a ceasefire in Gaza, relaunch the two-state solution and stop the spread of war in Lebanon.”

    Xi added: “There should be no more suffering and destruction in Palestine and Lebanon.”

    Xi and Putin shared a very lively private chat, and have been frequently seen together at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia:

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    During the summit, the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine didn’t got without criticism. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who is later expected to meet one-on-one with President Putin, described that the full-scale invasion sets a “dangerous precedent” for the world.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 17:20

  • Inflation & Social Decay – Doug Casey On Rising Prices And Falling Values
    Inflation & Social Decay – Doug Casey On Rising Prices And Falling Values

    Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

    International Man: Whether it’s at the grocery store, the mall, restaurants, or airports—anywhere you turn—people are finding inferior goods and services at higher prices.

    Living standards have taken a big step backward recently and are trending even worse.

    What is really going on?

    Doug Casey: There’s an inclination on the part of people to blame the producers of products—the butcher, the baker, and the gasoline maker—but that’s actually very silly, insofar as these people create real wealth.

    They’re fighting the effects of government inflation, which doesn’t create anything but fiat currency and fiat credit, which is what actually takes the prices higher. In fact, inflation of the currency, which is to say an increase in the amount of purchasing media above the increase in real wealth. It’s what inflation is all about; it’s the State subtly stealing capital and wealth from individuals.

    The big problem with the depreciation of the dollar is that producers are blamed as being the problem. They’re the solution to the problem in that they create real wealth. The real enemy here is the State and its central bank, the Fed.

    International Man: How does inflation erode ethical standards, leading people to cut corners, lie, cheat, or even steal as they try to maintain their living standards?

    Doug Casey: The prime directive of life is to survive, and entities, whether they be governments, corporations, or individuals. They will basically do whatever they have to do to survive.

    Unfortunately, inflation is all about theft, subtle and hard to diagnose as it is, but theft breeds more theft.

    Leaders of any organization, whether it be governments or corporations, set the moral tone. The average person may not understand much about economics, which is the study of how men produce and consume in order to survive, but they have an intuitive, even if not a technical, understanding of it.

    Inflation, the theft of people’s wealth, eventually leads to revolution and overturning of society itself.

    International Man: How does inflation contribute to a more litigious society, with people increasingly looking to take money from others through the legal system?

    Doug Casey: Once again, the average person doesn’t understand economics very well, but he does understand that some people in modern society are getting rich without producing anything. And, they’re benefiting from the subtle fiat currency creation.

    In any event, they diagnosed that there’s a theft going on. In a society based less and less on production and more and more on the theft of pre-existing wealth, it’s natural enough that it becomes a Hobbesian war of all against all where counter-theft takes place through the legal system as opposed to actual physical violence.

    It’s very much like Al Capone said. “One thug can rob a gas station of $100, and if he’s caught, he’ll go to jail for years. But a lawyer with a pen can rob a country of a million and never get caught.” That’s what’s going on.

    The system has become entirely corrupt, and the government, which is supposed to protect the individual man, is actually the main culprit in stealing money from him. The fact that the US has over a million practicing lawyers is a symptom of corruption where people are using the legal system to steal.

    International Man: What are some historical examples of inflation leading to significant social and cultural degradation, and what lessons can we learn from them?

    Doug Casey: The destruction of the currency usually leads to a social upset because people who’ve produced in their lives and saved the difference do so with the national currency. But if the national currency is destroyed, everything they’ve worked for throughout their lives is also destroyed.

    Inflation upsets the entire basis of civilized society. It was a major reason why Chiang Kai-shek’s regime collapsed in China after World War II and a major reason why the Communists, whatever else they’ve done to their society in China, have been reasonably competent managers of their own currency.

    The Weimar Republic in Germany after World War I completely destroyed the mark, and the social upset that it caused led to rioting in the streets between the Nazis and the Communists, and of course, the Nazis won.

    Some countries suffer from perennial inflation, which results in a constant attempt to take over the government.

    People find that when real wealth becomes hard to produce, there’s an inclination to go into politics to gain wealth and power as opposed to producing things. It’s why countries with unstable currencies become unstable socially, economically, and politically as well.

    International Man: You have frequently discussed how to protect yourself from inflation’s financial and economic effects with gold and other hard assets.

    However, aside from the financial effects, how do people protect themselves from inflation’s negative social, cultural, and political effects we’ve discussed today?

    Doug Casey: The most important thing that you can do is gain skills, lots of skills, both in breadth and in depth so that no matter how things are sorted out, you’ll always be in a position to produce things that people want.

    I’d like to share Robert Heinlein’s quote about what somebody should be able to do.

    “A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.”

    I suggest that there’s a practical path to doing that, to qualifying yourself to thrive no matter which way the economy evolves. And for 90% of the people, it’s not sitting at a college desk for four years listening to a woke professor drone on about politically correct topics.

    I suggest you subscribe to Matt Smith’s son Maxim’s blog, where he describes, on an ongoing basis, exactly what he’s doing to educate himself instead of going to college.

    For many years, I’ve considered college to be a complete misallocation, even worse, a waste of four of the best years of your life and a lot of money to have your head filled with incorrect ideas, which are hard to wash away.

    So, the answer to the question is to prepare yourself intellectually, psychologically, and skill-wise.

    It’ll put you in a position to produce more than you consume. And what we usually talk about in this newsletter is what you do with the wealth that you save so it’s not inflated away by your government.

    *  *  *

    The truth is, we’re on the cusp of an economic crisis that could eclipse anything we’ve seen before. And most people won’t be prepared for what’s coming. That’s exactly why bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released a free report with all the details on how to survive an economic collapse. Click here to download the PDF now.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 17:00

  • The Enemy Within Is Throwing A Hissy Fit
    The Enemy Within Is Throwing A Hissy Fit

    Authored by Jenna McCarthy via Jennaside Rocks substack,

    Trump is in trouble again – shocker! – and as one might imagine, it’s breaking the internet. This time, McDonald’s most famous fry guy had the nerve to refer to liberals allied against him as “the enemy within.” (In other news, water is wet, the entire cancer industry is a scam, and those aren’t clouds.) At the sound of this verbal napalm dropping, delicate democratic snowflakes began melting in petulant public puddles.

    “Donald Trump is suggesting that his fellow Americans are worse ‘enemies’ than foreign adversaries,” a Harris campaign spokesperson sniveled in a statement. “Until recently, this kind of language was not a normal part of American presidential politics,” The Atlantic sulked in a piece comparing Trump to Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, Mao Zedong, and Pol Pot. “CNN Anchor Left Lost for Words By Trump’s Chilling Enemy Within Comments,” a Daily Beast headline roared before popping a Xanax and wrapping itself in a weighted blanket.

    Chilling? Sinister? Dangerous? Can so-called reporters even get a grip? “Trump unplugs his grandmother’s CPAP machine to charge his phone,” is chilling. “McDONALD found guilty of handing out fentanyl laced fries,” is sinister. “Federer calls Nadal a butthead,” is not a headline or a news story.

    I tried to get ChatGPT to weigh in on whether or not the Donald was way off base in his accusations, but the poor bot simply couldn’t cough up any intel. On moral grounds, apparently.

    So I tried a different, hypothetical question.

    Did you hear the GULP, too?

    ChatGPT hates having to expose democrats.

    On MSNBC’s Morning Joe show, host Joe Scarborough nearly lost his mind over Trump’s vitriolic verbiage. “I really don’t know where this puts us as a country,” a dramatically somber Scarborough moaned. “I’ve never heard a politician call his opponent ‘the enemy within’ and say he’s going after them.”

    Really? Hahahahahahaha. Could somebody help Scarborough out from under that rock?

    Note that Bill Clinton was never indicted for hush money payments made to Paula Jones.

    Nancy Pelosi literally called Trump a “domestic enemy” (which is obviously not the same thing as the enemy within, how dare you), not to mention immoral, unethical, corrupt, unpatriotic hahahahahaha and “stupid.” Hillary Clinton funded an investigation into Trump’s possible ties to Russia during the 2016 election. (That backfired spectacularly on her, BTW.)

    Joe Biden, who has described Trump as a dangerous liar, said just yesterday “we gotta lock him up.” Kamala Harris has deemed him a racist threat to democracy and suggested he belongs in prison.

    Elizabeth Warren insisted that if elected, she would investigate Trump for corruption. Jerry Nadler accused Trump of abuse of power and actively pursued his removal from office. Teflon Don has been impeached twice; notably, both trials resulted in acquittals.

    I guess the qualifications for political talk show host don’t include a shred of knowledge of political history. Makes sense.

    (Oh, and I didn’t mention the infamous basket of deplorables—a description Killary later doubled down on and added was “too kind” for some of us—because technically she was referring to Trump supporters, not the man himself, and I like to be fair.)

    Things got even more sullen for Scarborough when the Wall Street Journal called his party a bunch of socialist scum [my words] and refused to engage in liberals’ favorite game, Whack-a-MAGA.

    “I woke up expecting, because there are times that the Wall Street Journal editorial page checks Mr. Trump at his worst instincts,” the host said glumly, foreshadowing the fact that this is not in fact what had happened. “Instead, they’re talking about the democrats’ ‘fascism meme’ and say that basically democrats are the real national socialists and that what they’ve done is far worse than anything Donald Trump has done. Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness—stop me if you’ve heard this before—was more law-breaking than anything that Donald Trump has ever done.”

    Spoiler: Scarborough may never recover.

    “Again, very rarely am I left without adequate words to explain what’s going on here,” the host lamented, “but… I was shocked enough that yesterday that Donald Trump continued calling democrats “the enemy within,” which of course is a precursor to him getting elected. Calling them enemy combatants and being able to lock them up and have military tribunals. And they will dismiss this perhaps, but they’ve never heard language like this before. Tell me if you’ve heard this before by a major party candidate.”

    Well, Joe, since military tribunals are generally reserved for treasonous traitors who betray their country or government, I’d imagine lots of progressive players are shaking in their rainbow boots at the thought of a Trump redux. No wonder the melancholy monologue.

    Is America’s most dangerous enemy within or without?

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 10/24/2024 – 16:20

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Oct 24

Today’s News 24th October 2024

  • FEMA's Real Purpose: Suppressing Americans And Preventing Civilian Organization
    FEMA’s Real Purpose: Suppressing Americans And Preventing Civilian Organization

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

    The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was founded on April 1st, 1979 under the Jimmy Carter Administration during the height of a nearly decade long stagflationary crisis and the Iranian oil crisis. Under Executive Order 12127, its stated goal was to centralize all disaster related efforts under a single top-down entity. Specifically, FEMA ended the more localized Civil Defense Agency, which was focused on community based emergency response, and it federalized all disaster coordination under a single top-down system controlled by the Oval Office.

    FEMA was eventually placed under the purview of the Department of Homeland Security, creating even more centralization. The reason for FEMA according to the government is to aid Americans during and after a national level disaster event; anything from earthquakes to hurricanes to terrorist attacks.

    That said, it should also be noted that FEMA was officially created on April Fool’s Day.

    The true purpose of FEMA has long been obscured but some disturbing truths have been exposed in the past. The declassification of a program called Rex 84 (tied to Operation Garden Plot) revealed that FEMA was working directly with the Department of Defense on a hypothetical strategy to round up and detain large numbers of civilians considered a “threat to national security.” In other words, FEMA was to act as a tool for helping suppress civil disturbances, it was not necessarily designed to help Americans in times of need.

    This was likely always the intent behind the founding of FEMA, but George H.W. Bush and Oliver North are cited as the men that truly militarized FEMA in the early 1980s. The goal to establish a mechanism for controlling domestic political dissent and suspending constitutional freedoms was exposed not long after FEMA’s founding. Oliver North was visibly enraged when the subject was broached in a congressional hearing during the Iran/Contra scandal.

    It should be mentioned that the REX 84 documents do not list FEMA as a primary agency in control of civil disturbance response. This is where the accusations of “conspiracy theory” usually come from – FEMA is not the end-all-be-all agency in charge of locking down American rebellion. In fact, FEMA’s role is strangely ambiguous and is not clearly defined. All that is known is that they are indeed an element of Operation Garden Plot and have participated in REX exercises.

    There’s no denying that the secrecy around civil disturbance programs is pernicious and suggests that there is far more going on than our own government cares to admit. To uncover FEMA’s real intent all we have to do is examine how they behave.

    The recent Hurricane Helene disaster and FEMA’s handling of the response across the East Coast echos the agency’s crimes after Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005. Their emergency “aid” is used as a cloak to hide efforts to actually STOP communities from helping each other and preventing outside civilian funded supplies from reaching affected residents in need.

    Desperate residents during Katrina were treated like prisoners rather than citizens, gun confiscation took place in many areas and some people were shot for trying to leave locked down neighborhoods. (As a side note – this is why you should NEVER let anyone confiscate your firearms, especially if those people are sent by the government)

    CNN reported in 2008 that FEMA confiscated at least $85 million in donated goods and prevented them from reaching Katrina disaster victims. This included clothing, bedding, food and medical supplies. They stored these materials for years and then GAVE AWAY the supplies long after Katrina was over. FEMA claimed the supplies were “in excess to their needs.” This report and all related articles now seem to be missing from CNN’s archives.

    We just witnessed a repeat of this behavior from FEMA and the affiliated agencies within their oversight. We saw local EMS being advised to prevent civilians from helping their communities. Supplies were once agaun being blocked, people with drones were being told not to help find survivors, people with helicopters are were threatened for helping save survivors and little aid reached Helene victims for weeks. Elon Musk’s Starlink was even been prevented from providing satellite internet services to affected regions until the story went national and the Department of Transportation was forced to address the problem.

    It’s Katrina all over again, and FEMA always seems to have excuses.

    But why? You would think that with an election only weeks away Biden and Harris would be jumping at the chance to look competent and useful. Instead, they did nothing other that offer a $750 relief check to survivors (which might help people survive for a week) and then referred people to federal programs which take many months to benefit from.

    I argue that this is all deliberate. FEMA and the federal government at large are still using Operation Garden Plot-like protocols with two goals in mind…

    First, they are trying to acclimate the populace to the idea that civilians can’t help themselves and that they should do nothing. They do this by constantly interfering with civilian efforts and disrupting donations. If civilians are working on their own to save US communities from calamity then they might one day realize they don’t need the Federal Government for anything. The establishment NEEDS people to believe that they can’t survive without government aid and protection. Luckily, at least in the aftermath of Helene, it seems that many communities are working on their own to fix the situation.

    If civilians start doing things for themselves, the establishment machine becomes obsolete.

    Second, I suspect FEMA is testing the waters to see how much they can get away with. Katrina was a clear beta-test for martial law disguised as an emergency response. Katrina was Garden Plot and Rex-84 realized. They want to see what Americans will put up with.  Helene is yet another opportunity for these agencies to apply overt control and see if Americans will conform or rebel.

    If FEMA is truly sincere in their efforts to help Americans they certainly don’t act like it. The criticism surrounding Helene is ramping up and FEMA’s indignant attitude towards their own failures in unacceptable. They should be punished for failing in their duties. That is assuming they are actually failing.

    Maybe they consider the tragedy of government inaction surrounding Helene a success?  The underlying point is, when disaster comes your way, it’s not enough to merely count FEMA out as a source of aid.  That’s obvious. But you will also have to consider the possibility that the agency will work directly against you and your neighbors should you try to help yourselves.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 23:25

  • China's Xi & India's Modi Cement Border Peace Deal After Years Of Friction
    China’s Xi & India’s Modi Cement Border Peace Deal After Years Of Friction

    The India-China troop clash of 2020 along the largely unmarked frontier of Ladakh in a disputed border area in the Western Himalayas resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers. It was the deadliest border incident between the two nuclear-armed nations in memory.

    Since then, other more minor skirmishes and tense incidents have followed, leading to several military-to-military talks and efforts at dialogue trying to diffuse the situation. Both countries have feared there could be another deadly blow-up, as the rival armies jockey to claim territory in the high altitude no man’s land.

    But it appears the lengthy dispute may have permanently come to an end, and without further bloodshed. The two countries have reportedly struck a major peace deal in connection with the BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan this week.

    The last time President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a bilateral summit was all the way back in October 2019, in southern India. Since then, the relationship has been marred by the border tensions.

    China has since developed a high-altitude air force base and infantry encampments in the Ladakh border region.

    But the two leaders met and shook hands on the sidelines of the BRICS summit on Wednesday…

    Via Reuters

    “Over the last several weeks, Indian and Chinese diplomatic and military negotiators have been in close contact with each other in a variety of forums, and as a result of these discussions, [an] agreement has been arrived at on patrolling arrangements along the Line of Actual Control,” Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri told reporters in New Delhi just as the BRICS summit kicked off in Russia.

    The agreement has led to “disengagement and a resolution of the issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020,” the top Indian diplomat added.

    China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed Tuesday that “China and India, through diplomatic and military channels, maintained close communication recently over border-related issues. The two sides have now reached a solution.”

    It was soon after the agreement was made public that Xi and Modi met in Kazan. President Xi said the two countries  “should carefully handle differences and disagreements and facilitate each other’s pursuit of development aspirations.”

    “It’s important for both sides to shoulder our international responsibilities, set an example for boosting the strength and unity of the developing countries, and contribute to promoting multi-polarization and democracy in international relations,” Xi continued.

    And India’s Foreign Ministry said in follow-up: “The two leaders affirmed that stable, predictable, and amicable bilateral relations between India and China, as two neighbors and the two largest nations on earth, will have a positive impact on regional and global peace and prosperity.”

    Without doubt, Russian and Asian regional media will hold up this historic moment as displaying the benefits of the BRICS alliance, and of Putin as the peacemaking host.

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    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 23:00

  • 'Silent Phase' Of Alzheimer's Begins Decades Before Symptoms, NIH Study Suggests
    ‘Silent Phase’ Of Alzheimer’s Begins Decades Before Symptoms, NIH Study Suggests

    Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Recent advancements in Alzheimer’s disease research show a promising shift in the understanding of the memory-robbing disorder, suggesting that crucial brain changes can occur decades before symptoms manifest.

    Courtesy of The Allen Institute, Seattle

    ​A recent study has identified a two-phase progression of Alzheimer’s, highlighting a silent phase marked by subtle brain changes long before cognitive decline becomes apparent.​

    Alzheimer’s disease has a long pre-symptomatic period, with related changes taking place in the brain “10, 15, even 20 years before the onset of memory and thinking symptoms,” Igor Camargo Fontana, Alzheimer’s Association director of scientific conference programming, told The Epoch Times.

    This research could also open new avenues for earlier detection and targeted treatments.

    “One of the challenges to diagnosing and treating Alzheimer’s is that much of the damage to the brain happens well before symptoms occur,” Dr. Richard J. Hodes, director of the NIH National Institute on Aging, said in a statement. “The ability to detect these early changes means that, for the first time, we can see what is happening to a person’s brain during the earliest periods of the disease.”

    The Early Phase: Silent and Gradual Damage

    A recent National Institutes of Health (NIH)-funded study provided new insights into the progression of Alzheimer’s disease, potentially paving the way for earlier detection and treatment options.

    The findings, published in Nature Neuroscience, say that Alzheimer’s affects the brain in two distinct phases: an early, silent phase characterized by subtle changes, and a later, symptomatic phase marked by widespread damage and the accumulation of amyloid plaques, long associated with the disorder.

    Researchers have found that the initial phase of Alzheimer’s is insidious, unfolding slowly over time and occurring well before noticeable memory problems arise. During this phase, a gradual buildup of beta-amyloid plaques and tangles—hallmarks of Alzheimer’s—can be observed.

    This early “quiet” phase is marked by subtle changes in brain cells, particularly inhibitory neurons, which may be among the first to become vulnerable, disrupting communication between brain cells, according to Fontana. These cells are mostly located in a brain region that is associated with memory, vision, and language.

    The research specifically identified the death of somatostatin inhibitory neurons, a group previously underestimated in their role within Alzheimer’s pathology. This finding challenges the prevailing notion that the disease primarily harms excitatory neurons responsible for facilitating brain cell communication.

    The Late Phase: Rapid Deterioration and Symptoms

    The second phase of Alzheimer’s disease is starkly different. It’s characterized by rapid accumulation of amyloid plaques and tangles, significant neural damage, and cognitive decline symptoms such as memory loss and confusion, alongside increased levels of inflammation and cell death. Researchers have found that this deterioration occurs as part of a complex interplay of changes within neural circuitry.

    Using advanced genetic analysis tools, researchers created a comprehensive map of the changes in the brain associated with Alzheimer’s. They specifically targeted the middle temporal gyrus, a region in the brain vital for language, memory, and visual processing, to illustrate its susceptibility to Alzheimer’s-induced damage.

    The study suggests that in this later phase of the disease, other cells associated with inflammation—microglia and astrocytes—begin counteracting initial changes by releasing molecules or altering their structures, according to Fontana.

    “Alterations in inflammatory cells and inhibitory neurons slowly evolve to demonstrate the well-known biological changes of Alzheimer’s,” he said, “including the accumulation of amyloid plaques and formation of tau tangle pathology, culminating in a terminal state.”

    Implications for Diagnostics and Treatment

    The study can have significant implications for early diagnosis and targeted treatments.

    The results fundamentally alter scientists’ understanding of how Alzheimer’s harms the brain and will guide the development of new treatments for this devastating disorder, Hodes noted in a statement.

    By recognizing distinct phases of the disease, researchers can better tailor diagnostics and therapeutics to the specific cellular changes taking place at various stages. This discovery may also facilitate earlier interventions and improve patient outcomes.

    The “bigger picture” is that Alzheimer’s long pre-symptomatic period presents opportunities for early detection and intervention to prevent the onset of dementia symptoms, Fontana said. “If the findings in this new paper are confirmed by other labs,” he added, “it raises the question of whether effectively addressing the brain changes that happen in what the authors call the first ‘quiet’ phase can slow, delay or prevent the second, more destructive phase.”

    Fontana stressed the importance of evaluating this “quiet” phase using a combination of diagnostic tools and investigating its associations with Alzheimer’s biomarkers, such as amyloid and tau.

    ​Looking ahead, the study establishes a foundation for future research on Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias.​ By examining the relationships between different cell types and their roles in disease progression, scientists aim to identify protective factors and resilience mechanisms for potential therapies. Fontana noted that the Alzheimer’s Association is funding related research studies.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 22:35

  • These Are All The US States Paying More Than The Federal Minimum-Wage
    These Are All The US States Paying More Than The Federal Minimum-Wage

    The real value of the federal minimum wage ($7.25/hour) has declined steadily since it was last raised 15 years ago.

    As discussions around increasing it continue, several states have taken matters into their own hands – by implementing and raising state minimum wages.

    Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao maps out the U.S. states that pay more than the federal minimum wage and list their minimums.

    Data for this graphic is sourced from the Federal Reserve, as of 2024.

    Ranked: State Minimum Wages

    Thirty states have a minimum wage that’s higher than the federal minimum of $7.25/hour.

    Of them, Washington ($16.28/hr) and California ($16.00/hr ) are the highest. Both states are expensive to live in, as evidenced by how far $100 will take you (not very) in each.

    However, the country-wide crown goes to Washington D.C., ($17.50/hr) where the minimum is tied to inflation.

    Eighteen states either match the federal benchmark, or don’t have a state minimum at all (which makes the federal minimum applicable).

    Two states—Wyoming and Georgia—have a state minimum wage that’s below $7.25/hour but in this case the federal wage takes effect.

    What is the Minimum Wage Discourse?

    The minimum wage debate in the U.S. involves two main opposing viewpoints. Proponents argue that raising the minimum wage is necessary to boost living standards for low-wage workers, reduce poverty, and narrow income inequality. They say that moderate increases have minimal impact on employment and can stimulate consumer spending.

    Key to their argument is that this is also the longest time the federal minimum has not seen an increase, since its inception in 1938.

    Year Nominal value
    ($/hour)
    1940 0.30
    1945 0.40
    1950 0.75
    1955 0.75
    1960 1.00
    1965 1.25
    1970 1.60
    1975 2.10
    1980 3.10
    1985 3.35
    1990 3.80
    1995 4.25
    2000 5.15
    2005 5.15
    2010 7.25
    2015 7.25
    2018 7.25
    2019 7.25
    2020 7.25
    2021 7.25
    2022 7.25
    2023 7.25

    On the other hand, opponents claim that significant minimum wage hikes could lead to job losses, particularly for low-skilled and young workers. This could potentially increasing poverty rates for some groups.

    They argue that it may price low-skilled workers out of the job market and harm small businesses with slim profit margins. Both sides cite economic studies to support their positions, but the debate ultimately reflects deeper societal values about fairness, opportunity, and the role of government in the economy.

    Since 2017, the Raise the Wage Act has been introduced to Congress every year in an effort to increase the federal minimum. All the bills have not passed the legislature so far.

    Current “Raise the Wage” proposals look to increase the minimum to $17/hour. In the Share of Workers Earning Less Than $17/Hour we map out which states would see the most changes.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 22:10

  • Hey Pilots, FAA Issues Final Rule For "Powered-Lift" Rating, Paves Way For Air Taxis Over US Cities 
    Hey Pilots, FAA Issues Final Rule For “Powered-Lift” Rating, Paves Way For Air Taxis Over US Cities 

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) introduced a new rule establishing a “powered-lift” aircraft category for pilot training, marking the first new category for pilot certification since helicopters were introduced in the 1940s. This new category paves the way for aircraft that take off and land vertically like helicopters but fly like fixed-wing planes, commonly known as electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, to fly in controlled airspace across America.

    Here’s more from the FAA:

    The agency today issued a final rule for the qualifications and training that instructors and pilots must have to fly aircraft in this “powered-lift” category, which have characteristics of both airplanes and helicopters. The rule also addresses their operational requirements, including minimum safe altitudes and required visibility. The rule is the final piece in the puzzle for safely introducing these aircraft in the near term.

    On X, FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker wrote, “An extraordinary moment for aviation! Our rule for training and certificating pilots to fly powered lift is the final piece of the puzzle to get these revolutionary aircraft flying safely in our skies” 

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    According to the FAA’s powered-lift rule: 

    • Makes changes to numerous existing regulations and establishes a Special Federal Aviation Regulation (SFAR) with new requirements to facilitate instructor and pilot certification and training.

    • Applies helicopter operating requirements to some phases of flight and adopts a performance-based approach to certain operating rules.

    • Allows pilots to train in powered-lift with a single set of flight controls; legacy rules require two flight controls – one for the student and one for the instructor.

    “The regulation published today will ensure the U.S. continues to play a global leadership role in the development and adoption of clean flight,” JoeBen Bevirt, founder and CEO of air taxi company Joby Aviation, told Fast Company, adding, “Delivering the rules ahead of schedule is a testament to the dedication, coordination, and hard work of the rulemaking team.”

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    We have followed several eVTOL startups over the years, including Alef Aeronautics, a company backed by Space-X… 

    It’s not hard to figure out that flying cars must be done under the FAA’s Visual Flight Rules (VRF) or Instrument Flight Rules (IFR). In other words, the pilot in control will need a pilot license and be rated in the powered lift category.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 21:20

  • How Schools Across America Are Struggling With AI Deepfakes
    How Schools Across America Are Struggling With AI Deepfakes

    Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Gone are the days where the biggest concern is students drawing alien ears on their science teacher or printing images of a friend’s face connected to a four-legged body with scales and a tail.

    That was 30-something years ago. Now, schools are being forced to develop emergency response plans in case sexually explicit images of students or teachers generated by artificial intelligence (AI) pop up on social media.

    This photo illustration shows an AI Girl Generator on a cellphone in front of a computer screen, created in Washington on Nov. 16, 2023. Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

    In two separate cases, school principals were seen or heard spewing racist, violent language against black students. Both were AI-generated deepfakes—one was produced by students and the other was made by a disgruntled athletic director who later was arrested.

    Deepfakes are defined as “non-consensually AI-generated voices, images, or videos that are created to produce sexual imagery, commit fraud, or spread misinformation,” according to a nonprofit group focused on AI regulation.

    As education leaders scramble to set policy to mitigate the damage of deepfakes—and as state legislators work to criminalize such malicious acts specific to schools or children—the technology to combat AI tools that can replicate a person’s image and voice doesn’t yet exist, says Andrew Buher, founder and managing director of the Opportunity Labs nonprofit research organization.

    “There is a lot of work to do, both with prevention and incident response,” he said during a virtual panel discussion held by Education Week last month on teaching digital and media literacy in the age of AI. “This is about social norming [because] the technical mitigation is quite a ways away.”

    Legislation Targets Deepfakes

    On Sept. 29, California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed into law a bill criminalizing AI-generated child porn. It’s now a felony in the Golden State to possess, publish, or pass along images of individuals under the age of 18 simulating sexual conduct.

    There are similar new laws in New York, Illinois, and Washington State.

    At the national level, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has proposed the Take It Down Act, which would criminalize the “intentional disclosure of nonconsensual intimate visual depictions.”

    The federal bill defines a deepfake as “a video or image that is generated or substantially modified using machine-learning techniques or any other computer-generated or machine-generated means to falsely depict an individual’s appearance or conduct within an intimate visual depiction.”

    Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) speaks at a news conference to unveil the Take It Down Act to protect victims against non-consensual intimate image abuse at the U.S. Capitol on June 18, 2024. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

    School districts, meanwhile, seek guidance on an emerging problem that threatens not just students, but also staff.

    At Maryland’s Pikesville High School in January, a fake audio recording was made of the principal. School officials enlisted the help of local police agencies and the FBI.

    The suspect, Dazhon Darien, 31, an athletic director, was charged with theft, stalking, disruption of school operations, and retaliation against a witness.

    He allegedly made the recording to retaliate against the principal, who was investigating Darien’s alleged mishandling of school funds, according to an April 25 news release on the Baltimore County Government website.

    Jim Siegl, a senior technologist with the Future of Privacy Forum, said during the Education Week panel discussion that investigators in the Baltimore case were able to link the suspect to the crime by reviewing “old school computer access logs.”

    But as AI technology continues to evolve, he said, it may be necessary to develop a watermarking system for generated audio or video to replace outdated systems for monitoring and safeguarding school computer use.

    In February 2023, high school students in Carmel, New York, used AI to impersonate a middle school principal. The deepfakes were posted on TikTok. Investigators were able to link the students’ activities to their accounts. They were disciplined under school code of conduct guidelines but not charged criminally, according to a statement released on the district’s Facebook page.

    “As an organization committed to diversity and inclusion,” the statement said, “the Carmel Central School District Board of Education is appalled at, and condemns, these recent videos, along with the blatant racism, hatred, and disregard for humanity displayed in some of them.”

    A parent, Abigail Lyons, said a co-worker who also has children in the district showed her a text containing seven different videos.

    “I basically fell to the floor,” said Lyons, who is biracial. “It was horrific. It looked so real.”

    They re-watched the videos and noticed that the lip movement and body language were a bit off from the sound. Lyons said most parents in the district had already seen or heard about the videos and probably knew they were deepfakes before Carmel school officials publicly acknowledged the incident and declared there “was no threat.”

    Carmel High School, Carmel, N.Y., on Oct. 7, 2015. Will2022/CC

    Lyons said the event scared her daughter, and that events like school lockdowns or emergency drills still trigger anxiety and fear stemming from the 2023 deepfake.

    “Seventh graders should not have to worry about these things,” she told The Epoch Times.

    Lyons said she is unaware of any deepfake incidents so far this semester, but students have threatened each other on social media, including one threat that led to a two-hour building lockdown.

    “We still don’t know what it [lockdown] was for,” she said. “The transparency still isn’t there.”

    The Epoch Times reached out to the district offices in Carmel, New York, and Baltimore County, Maryland, but didn’t receive a response.

    California’s new law was prompted by several deepfake incidents that victimized students.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 20:55

  • Tesla Soars After Unexpected Jump In Profit Margin Suggests Price War Is Over
    Tesla Soars After Unexpected Jump In Profit Margin Suggests Price War Is Over

    Ahead of today’s Tesla earnings report, UBS analyst Joe Spak asked whether Tesla numbers even matter this quarter after the Robotaxi reveal, which disappointed markets. His response is that while they should matter more, Tesla is really about the future/multiple, not the current EV biz (which drives numbers). Of the number that will be report, auto gross margins ex credits remains “the” metric investors follow, and feedback indicates buyside expectations are for flat-to-slightly-higher quarter over quarter (consensus +30bp q/q to 14.9%).

    Joe is also looking for an update on Model 2.5 for next year (doesn’t seem to be a focus) and any more Robotaxi details. Additionally, Bloomberg notes that Tesla could give an update on its more affordable vehicle platform today. Earlier this year, Musk said a low-cost model could start production in the first half of 2025.

    Analysts were hoping for an update during the company’s robotaxi event earlier this month, but there was no mention of the platform. Tesla hasn’t shared key details about the vehicle, including price and what it would look like. At the same time, Musk has repeatedly said that Tesla is becoming more than just a car company, as it increasingly focuses on artificial intelligence.

    As a reminder, Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries rose for the first time this year, but the automaker has an uphill climb to break even for 2024. In 2023, Tesla sold around 1.8 million units; as of the third quarter, 2024 sales stood at just under 1.3 million units. So Tesla will have to sell 514,000 units in 4Q to break even – which is 30,000 EVs more than were sold in 4Q 2023, the company’s all-time peak quarter.

    So with that in mind, this is what Tesla just reported for Q3:

    • Revenue $25.18 billion, missing estimate $25.43 billion
    • Adjusted EPS 72c, beating estimate 60c (Bloomberg Consensus)
    • Gross margin 19.8%, beating estimate 16.8%
      • The all-important automotive gross margin ex-credits, jumped to 17.1%, beating estimates of 14.9%, and up from 14.6% in Q2
    • Operating income $2.72 billion, beating estimate $1.96 billion
    • Free cash flow $2.74 billion, beating estimate $1.61 billion
    • Capital expenditure $3.51 billion, beating estimate $2.56 billion

    And visually:

    It is notable that while revenues rose 8%, if came in just shy of expectations, Tesla recognized $739 million, in regulatory credit revenues, the second highest quarter in history “as other OEMs are still behind on meeting emissions requirements.”

    But the biggest highlight by far is Tesla’s ability to boost margins – both gross and automotive ex-credits – substantially higher YoY and also higher than expected, signaling that Tesla’s “race to the bottom” to steal market share is once again over, and the company is once more focusing on harvesting the benefits of its recent market share gains.

    Commenting on the margin line item, Bloomberg notes that if you strip out the reg credits, “Tesla’s saying that profit is being boosted by lower cost per vehicle in terms of production and materials. Energy generation and energy storage is now also starting to perform better.”

    One more thing to point out is that the company also commented on “higher FSD revenue recognition YoY for releases related to Cybertruck” and a new feature – Actually Smart Summon (basically you hit a button in the app while your car is on other side of a parking lot and it’s supposed to drive to you). In other words, Tesla is telling is saying that people are paying for this software, and they are listing it as a positive contributor to profit.

    Some more good news: Tesla said its Cybertruck has reached profitability for the first time, thanks in part to increases in production for the futuristic pick-up truck.

    Turning to Tesla’s outlook, the highlight was the company’s discussion of Volume, where it said the following:

    Our company is currently between two major growth waves: the first one began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform and we believe the next one will be initiated by advances in autonomy and introduction of new products, including those built on our next generation vehicle platform.

     Just as important, turning to Tesla’s product outlook, the company said that its “plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

    This approach, the company says, “will result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This should help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines.“

    Speaking of auto production, we already said that while Q3 was a solid quarter with 6% growth in total deliveries, it will be up to Q4, when Tesla must sell over 510,000 units to break even vs 2024, which is 30,000 EVs more than were sold in 4Q 2023.

    And “despite ongoing macroeconomic conditions,” Tesla expects to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024. This is bullish and indicates that 2024 may be yet another record delivery year for the carmaker.

    Elsewhere, the energy business is still going strong, reaping in “a record gross margin” during the quarter. Powerwall deployments set a record for the second straight quarter while the ramp up of Powerwall 3 continues.

    Looking at Tesla’s investor deck, we find that the next-generation platform will have a powertrain with an efficiency of 5.5 miles per kWh. Lucid, one of Tesla’s competitors, proclaims that it has the world’s most efficient car – the Lucid Air Pure – that can achieve about 5.0 miles per kWh. Of course, the Lucid vehicle is available now, and Tesla’s next-generation platform may be years away.

    Those looking for some more details on what may be the company’s biggest value proposition, there was just a single, indirect reference to the future ride-hailing business in the deck. Tesla says:

    “At our ‘We, Robot’ event on October 10, we detailed our long-term goal of offering autonomous transport with a cost per mile below rideshare, personal car ownership and even public transit.”

    So anyone hoping for more details here, will be disappointed for at least a few more months although we are confident Elon will tease much more in the interim.

    Finally, there was this blurb documenting the company’s transition into an AI giant:

    “We deployed and are training ahead of schedule on a 29k H100 cluster at Gigafactory Texas – where we expect to have 50k H100 capacity by the end of October.”

    Putting it all together, and the company stock is surging after hours, rising almost 9%, to a huge of $234.89 after closing at $213.65. If this sustains, Tesla is will gain about than $60 billion in market value, which would be the biggest gain since July 2.

    Here is the full investor presentation (pdf link)

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 20:44

  • Open Border Backlash As NYC 'Deports' Thousands Of Migrants To Texas, Illinois, And Florida
    Open Border Backlash As NYC ‘Deports’ Thousands Of Migrants To Texas, Illinois, And Florida

    After Texas bussed over 45,000 migrants to New York City amid an influx of more than 200,000, the Big Apple is sending some of them back.

    According to a new report from Bloomberg, NYC has issued over 47,000 one-way tickets – 4,500 of them to Texas – through a voluntary program that transfers asylum seekers out of the city.

    Top destinations also include Illinois, Florida, other parts of New York and Colorado.

    The ticketing program has helped slash the number of asylum seekers reliant on the city, as have application assistance for work authorization and a policy limiting shelter stays, Adams said earlier this month. The top destinations for migrants asking to leave the Big Apple also include Illinois, Florida and Colorado, as well as other parts of New York. Most travel on planes.

    According to city official Fabien Levy, “These are not chartered buses,” but are instead “individual tickets we are purchasing after sitting down with migrants and hearing what they want to do.”

    Since April 2022, Texas has bused around 120,000 migrants to cities around the country, according to a statement from Gov. Greg Abbott’s office.

    •    Over 12,500 migrants to Washington, D.C. since April 2022
    •    Over 45,900 migrants to New York City since August 2022
    •    Over 36,900 migrants to Chicago since August 2022
    •    Over 3,400 migrants to Philadelphia since November 2022
    •    Over 19,200 migrants to Denver since May 2023
    •    Over 1,500 migrants to Los Angeles since June 2023

    “Our latest battle has been against Tren de Aragua. They’re notorious for brutal violence, kidnapping, extortion, and bribery,” said Abbott, adding “Texas law enforcement has already begun making arrests of known and suspected Tren de Aragua members. Together, we will secure our border, defend our communities, and keep Texas safe.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 20:30

  • Stock Up For Survival: Essential Food Storage Tips For Emergencies
    Stock Up For Survival: Essential Food Storage Tips For Emergencies

    Authored by Emma Suttie, D. Ac, AP via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Imagine this scenario: You have just arrived home from work. You sit down to watch the news and see that a massive storm with torrential rains is heading your way. The authorities advise everyone to stay indoors and off the roads for the next 72 hours because of high winds and the risk of flooding.

    Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

    Situations like these occur more frequently than most people realize. While no one likes pondering worst-case scenarios, advance preparation can save your life—and significantly ease your stress during emergencies.

    Whether facing natural disasters like flooding, hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, fires, or chemical spills—or personal emergencies—such as illnesses, accidents, or losing your job, having food, cash, and other necessities tucked away can mean the difference between thriving and surviving.

    Considerations When Preparing for Emergencies

    Most of us have become accustomed to conveniences like running water and grocery stores for our basic needs. However, in an emergency, these conveniences may disappear. Planning ahead can significantly increase your resilience and may be vital to your survival if things go sideways.

    While everyone’s needs during an emergency differ, food and water are universal necessities. Most experts advise having at least three days’ worth of food and water for everyone in your household, including pets. This should be enough for you to survive until the emergency has passed and help can get to you. Be prepared for extended emergencies by gathering enough food and water to last up to two weeks or even a month if your budget and storage allow.

    The American Red Cross recommends maintaining a three-day emergency supply for evacuation and a two-week supply at home.

    When preparing, consider the following:

    • The number of people and pets in your household who need food and water.
    • Dietary restrictions (allergies, diabetics), preferences, and whether certain foods require cooking or water.
    • The shelf life of the food you choose, ensuring you rotate supplies every few months for freshness.
    • Your ability to cook without power, such as having a camp stove or gas barbeque.
    • Make sure you have the necessary utensils and storage options, such as cool, dry areas for keeping food and water. Disposable plates and cutlery don’t require water for washing.
    • Because you may not have electricity, plan meals in single portions as you may be unable to refrigerate leftovers.
    • Make sure you have lighters, matches, candles, flashlights, batteries, knives, zip lock bags, bleach (to disinfect and purify water), and other essentials that you keep in sealed plastic bags.

    Water Needs

    Conventional wisdom suggests people can live for about three weeks without food. However, they can only survive for three days without water—making it essential to have plenty in your emergency stores.

    The Prepared, a highly regarded resource focused on practical prepping, recommends at least one gallon of water per day for each person. Remember to consider additional water for cooking, cleaning, and your pets.

    They also suggest including a way to treat dirty water, like a portable water filter or countertop filter.

    One way to keep the water aside for emergencies is in a deep freezer, Nellie Oehler, a food safety specialist and coordinator with Oregon State University Extension Service, a statewide outreach program, told The Epoch Times.

    “I keep my deep freezes full,” she said. “Number one, if it’s not full of food, it’s full of bottled water. Then I’ve got an emergency water supply, plus it keeps my freezer cold. It cuts down on the cost of running your freezer, and I’ve got water,” she added.

    Food Selection

    A key rule of storing food for emergencies is to “store what you eat” and “eat what you store.” One of the easiest ways to build up your survival food supply is to buy extra non-perishable, shelf-stable items every time you buy groceries. This practice will also ensure that you have food you enjoy.

    You can also buy pre-packaged emergency foods like MREs (Meals-Ready-to-Eat), which need little to no preparation and last extended periods. Survival food tends to be more compact and lasts longer than the food you buy at the supermarket, but it is typically more expensive. A combination of both works well for a robust emergency food pantry.

    Preserving your food at home through canning, pickling, curing, fermenting, or dehydrating is also an option.

    You still have options if you don’t know how to preserve your own food, Oehler said. Inexpensive options are plentiful at supermarkets. Waiting until items go on sale to stock up can help you save money and collect the food you need to be prepared when the time comes.

    Be aware of expiration dates on foods you buy, and choose foods that have a long shelf life and come in sturdy packaging. Look for nutrient-dense, shelf-stable foods like dried beans, canned meat and fish, peanut butter, and grains, as they take up the least amount of space. Also, when buying food, consider if it needs cooking, reheating, or can be eaten right out of the package.

    Recommended Emergency Food Items

    While not exhaustive, the list below will give you an idea of foods that store well and make an excellent addition to your emergency food pantry.

    Protein Sources

    • Peanut butter and other nut butters
    • Canned meat and fish (spam, chicken, tuna, salmon, sardines)
    • Beef jerky and dried meats
    • Canned beans and legumes (including refried beans)

    Ready-to-Eat Meals

    • Canned soups, stews, and chili
    • Instant meals (macaroni and cheese, ramen)
    • Instant mashed potatoes

    Grains and Staples

    • Rice and pasta
    • Oatmeal and breakfast cereals
    • Crackers and chips
    • Dried beans, lentils, and chickpeas

    Fruits and Vegetables

    • Canned fruits and vegetables
    • Dried fruits
    • Canned tomatoes and tomato sauce

    Beverages and Condiments

    • Powdered milk
    • Fruit juice (bottled, canned, or powdered)
    • Coffee, tea, hot chocolate
    • Salt, pepper, spices, hot sauce

    Comfort Foods

    • Honey and jam
    • Trail mix and granola bars
    • Chocolate, candies, and other favorite snacks (to improve morale)

    Some foods are not ideal for storing in an emergency, Tracey Brigman, associate director of the National Center for Home Food Preservation, told The Epoch Times via email.

    “Foods that should be avoided are foods that are overly salty (they can make you more thirsty and can thus deplete your water supply), caffeinated sodas (they offer little nutrients and can contribute to dehydration), and fresh items like fruits, vegetables, meats, dairy and leftovers since they spoil rapidly without proper refrigeration,” she said.

    Storage Strategies

    Oehler suggests diversifying for effective food storage.

    “Don’t put all your stuff in freeze-dried foods or dry foods because then you have to have a ton of water—so have a variety of foods on hand,” she said.

    For convenience and minimal effort, commercially canned foods from the grocery store are a great option. Make sure your emergency food is well-packaged, sealed, and has a date to prevent spoilage. If you have the budget, consider storing dry goods like beans, rice, and flour in food-grade buckets with oxygen absorbers to make them last longer. This can extend their shelf life for up to 25 years, Oehler said.

    “Home-preserved foods only last in proper storage for up to 1 year, so they need to be inspected and replaced in a timely manner,” she said. “Additionally, a home-canned food that is damaged, shows signs of swelling, rust, dents, or leaks, or has been exposed to floodwater should not be consumed. If there are any doubts about your home canned foods after a disaster, throw them out,” Oehler added.

    Improperly preserved food, especially if it has moisture, can lead to foodborne illness. Learn proper food preservation techniques from reputable sources like the National Center for Home Food Preservation, which has resources on preserving foods safely.

    Where to Store It

    Store food in a cool, dry place, ideally between 32 and 70 degrees F, as food will last longer in colder temperatures. Ideally, the space should be well-ventilated, clean, isolated from other items such as cleaning products or chemicals, and kept off the floor.

    If you live in a city with limited space, consider using under-the-bed storage, as it’s dark, and the bedroom is usually one of the coldest rooms in the house, according to Oehler.

    Don’t keep all supplies in one location—diversifying storage places can protect your food from emergencies. If a fire destroys your house, having some food in a shed or barn can be life-saving, Oehler said. She also recommends having containers with wheels on hand, like coolers or garbage cans, so you can take some supplies with you if you have to leave.

    Keeping food, water, and other emergency supplies in your car is advisable, as you never know where you will be when trouble strikes (being mindful that cars get very hot in summer months), she added.

    Cooking Without Electricity

    If you’re facing a power outage, you’ll need to think about how to cook or warm up your food without electricity. Keep this in mind when choosing foods, especially if you don’t have an alternative cooking source.

    Alternative Cooking Sources

    If you have a camping stove or barbeque, make sure you have the right fuel and extra water. Always cook outside for safety. A butane stove is a great, portable option for cooking and boiling water, especially indoors during severe weather, according to Oehler. It’s efficient, safe, and affordable.

    A butane stove is an excellent alternate cooking source when there is no electricity. Afanasiev Andrii/Shutterstock

    If you don’t have an alternative cooking source, stock up on ready-to-eat foods. Don’t forget a can opener!

    For warming up food indoors, candles, fondue pots, or chafing dishes can be used. Try to use a well-ventilated area if possible.

    Food Spoilage

    Stored food can deteriorate over time, losing its color, texture, taste, and smell. Some nutrients, like vitamin C, are also lost over time. If not stored correctly, insects and rodents can get into stored food, making it inedible. Use food-grade buckets, glass jars, or other airtight containers to keep food fresh and safe.

    Keep food items in sturdy, air-tight containers to protect them from rodents, insects, and other animals.  Landshark1/Shutterstock

    Don’t get too caught up in expiration dates. Commercial foods’ “use by” and “sell by” dates should be taken with a grain of salt, Oehler said, adding that the dates have nothing to do with food safety. “You know, if you have a can of green beans that’s two years old that you bought in the store—if it’s not bulging, if it’s not leaking on the seams, it’s perfectly safe to eat. If it’s five years old, it’s safe to eat,” she said.

    A lot of the quality of your food will depend on how you store it, Oehler said. Keeping the temperature from fluctuating, preventing light and moisture from getting to food so cans don’t rust, and ensuring things don’t freeze are ways to ensure your emergency stores last, she noted.

    Before eating, check for any signs of damage, like cracks, holes, or broken seals. Throw away anything that looks suspicious.

    Common Mistakes

    Mistakes made when preparing for an emergency can be costly when the emergency arrives. Brigman shares some common pitfalls:

    • Storing foods that are difficult to prepare or are not well-liked
    • Not closing foods tightly after each use
    • Not placing them in airtight food containers to protect them from spoilage
    • Not checking the dates and having expired/bad food in your emergency kit
    • Storing too many comfort foods and not enough nutrient-dense foods

    “Your body’s nutritional needs don’t change during an emergency so you still need to plan for nutritional adequacy,” Brigman said.

    Resources

    Extension services are an excellent resource for emergency preparedness and are available in every state. Extension services were established in 1914 to provide research-based education to the public. They offer a wide range of programs on topics that include farming, livestock management, gardening, and food production.

    Many universities also have extension programs, which “extend” the university and its resources to members of the community through educational programs.

    Resources from the University of Georgia and the Extension Disaster Education Network can provide vital information and assistance.

    Final Thoughts

    Emergency preparedness can feel daunting, but taking small steps can make a difference. By adding extra groceries and assessing your current supplies, you’ll be better equipped for any situation. Planning calmly for potential emergencies safeguards you and your loved ones. While preparation requires time and effort, it could be key to navigating future challenges.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 20:05

  • "Once You Know, You Cannot Unknow": Whistleblower Reveals Fed-Funded Industrial-Sized Staffing Firm Shipping Migrant Kids Around US
    “Once You Know, You Cannot Unknow”: Whistleblower Reveals Fed-Funded Industrial-Sized Staffing Firm Shipping Migrant Kids Around US

    A contract specialist from the General Services Administration (GSA) spoke with investigative reporter James O’Keefe about the federal government awarding a massive contract to an industrial-sized staffing agency to transport unaccompanied migrant kids across the country.

    “My line in the sand moment was when I found out that GSA had awarded a contract to a company to transport unaccompanied minors,” GSA Senior Contract Specialist Clarissa Rippee told O’Keefe in a sitdown interview shared on X.

    Source: James O’Keefe

    Rippee explained GSA, on behalf of the federal government, awarded MVM, a private security contractor with ties to the CIA, NSA, FBI, and Homeland Security, with a massive $347 million contract for the transportation services of unaccompanied minors across the United States. 

    Source: James O’Keefe

    She said the contract made her feel “like someone kicked me in the gut.” 

    Rippee described the federal gov’t treated unaccompanied migrant children like “commodities… like potato chips on a truck.” She noted this MVM contract highlights the “big money business” in the migrant crisis. 

    “Once you know, you cannot unknow,” Rippee stated, warning that the horrifying conditions she witnessed inspired her to speak out: “It’s about the children, and it’s my duty now to speak up.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    At the core of this taxpayer-funded invasion machine of new future Democratic voters are staffing agencies, the same ones that profited off the endless wars in the Middle East, retooled their business models from assisting the federal gov’t in foreign wars to providing domestic services to support the migrant invasion.

    Areas where migrants were dumped in 2023. 

    Source: Bloomberg

    These staffing firms have been awarded big contracts to provide private security, transportation, and many other services to ensure the smooth operation of the invasion domestically.

    Earlier this month, Real America’s Voice host Ben Bergquam posted on X, “More breaking footage of the Democrats harboring illegals in Chicago. Now using unmarked brand new hotels like this Holiday Inn at [XXXXXXX] to disguise Kamala and Biden’s illegal invasion operations.” 

    Bergquam’s video of the Holiday Inn filled-migrant hotel in the Chicago metro area is very intriguing. First, the security guards appear to be sourced from staffing firm GardaWorld. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Last month, Muckraker’s Anthony Rubin dropped a bombshell in a report titled “Finding The Feds’ Missing Children | CHILD TRAFFICKING IN AMERICA.”

    He provided intel that MVM was caught moving unaccompanied migrant children around the country.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In 2012, the head of GardaWorld told Reuters that Middle East conflicts had kept the staffing firm “busier than ever and has never been greater,” adding, “I don’t want to say it’s a gold rush, but business is very good.”

    The American people need to understand the same industrial-sized staffing firms that profited off the Deep State’s endless wars in the Middle East are profiting off the Biden-Harris migrant invasion – a government-created crisis.

    Taxpayers funded the migrant invasion chaos. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 19:40

  • 20% Of Households Making Over $150,000 Live Paycheck-To-Paycheck
    20% Of Households Making Over $150,000 Live Paycheck-To-Paycheck

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    Bank of America has an interesting report on who’s living paycheck to paycheck (PTP). It’s not just the poor. Blame the Fed.

    Please consider Paycheck to Paycheck: What, Who, Where, Why?

    What Does It Mean?

    The term ‘living paycheck to paycheck’ is a fairly frequently heard expression but can be somewhat nebulous and is not always clearly defined. Broadly, one can imagine it refers to individuals or households that regularly spend nearly all of their income, leaving little to nothing left over for savings.

    By that widely used definition, over 40 percent of respondents agreed or somewhat agreed to living PTP.

    BofA restricted that definition as shown in the lead chart.

    BofA refines PTP as “households where necessity spending is more than 95% of their household income, leaving them relatively little left over for ‘nice to have’ discretionary spending or saving.”

    Even by that definition, which I endorse, the percentage of PTP households is staggering.

    More surprising is that the proportion of households appearing to live paycheck to paycheck falls only slowly as incomes rise. Around 20% of households with incomes above $150K also appear to be living paycheck to paycheck. How can this be? One reason is that higher-income households may have bought larger, more expensive, homes and consequently have bigger mortgages. And often along with bigger homes come bigger insurance costs, property taxes and utility bills. It is also possible that as household incomes rise, some households may have more varied sources of income that are hard to capture – such as cash from sales of equities paid into brokerage accounts.

    Generational Paycheck to Paycheck

    That chart struck me as odd. But perhaps not. Zoomers and Younger millennials are priced out of a home and forced to rent.

    Then again, anyone with a mortgage should have been able to refinance at 3 percent or lower, putting extra money in their pockets every month.

    How Old Are the Youngest Boomers?

    AI Response: As of June 2024, the youngest baby boomers are 60–69 years old. The baby boomer generation is defined as people born between 1946 and 1964.

    Some experts have given the youngest baby boomers, born between 1954 and 1964, a new name, “Generation Jones”, because they are so different from older boomers.

    Has anyone heard the name “Generation Jones?”

    Regardless, boomers are at retirement age. The kids are gone. So why are boomers living PTP?

    One possible answer that BofA did not explore is Boomers have many assets and are prepared for the future. Besides, you can’t take it with you.

    Other possible answers, such as being totally unprepared for retirement, are much more troubling.

    Which is it? I suspect both reasons are in play, and that leads to the high PTP percentage shown.

    The Housing Factor

    Note the Hidden Costs of Homeownership.

    • Bank of America aggregated deposit data suggests that fewer households are moving between cities. In the second quarter of 2024, moves across cities fell 4% year-over-year (YoY) after a 15% YoY decrease this time last year. Those that are moving, however, are skewing towards Gen Z and lower-income households, likely as more households move out of necessity as opposed to choice.

    • Some households are likely deferring moves due to increased “hidden” costs of homeownership (e.g., insurance, property taxes). Bank of America aggregated payments data suggests these costs are up significantly YoY, especially in the Sun Belt. And a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco suggests that this area is affected by another “hidden” cost: climate change.

    • Gen Z and lower-income movers are likely searching for affordability, particularly in the rental market. We find those metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with relatively more affordable rents are seeing the fastest population growth in Q2 2024.

    • The fewer overall movers and the skew to younger/lower income movers is depressing consumer spending on moving-centric categories such as furniture. But if moving rebounds, we could see a tailwind to these areas of spending.

    Housing is a big factor in PTP. Insurance has soared and so have property taxes except where capped.

    The home ownership rate is only 35 percent for 25–30-year-olds, compared to 66 percent across all ages according to the Census Bureau.

    New Record Highs on Home Prices

    On September 28, I commented Yet Another Record High for Case-Shiller Home Prices

    And a quick check on Mortgage News Daily shows that 30-year mortgage rates have surged back up to 6.85 percent from 6.11 percent on September 11.

    I have been talking about housing since the start of this blog in March of 2003. The Fed keeps making the same mistake over and over.

    Fed Hubris

    Flashback March 4, 2021: Fed Hubris: Housing Prices Show the Fed is Making the Same Inflation Mistake

    Prior to 2000, home prices, Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER), and the Case Shiller national home price index all moved in sync.

    This is important because home prices directly used to be in the CPI. Now they aren’t. Only rent is. Yet, OER is the single largest CPI component with a hefty weight of 24.05% of the entire index. 

    The BLS explains this away by calling homes a capital expense not a consumer expense. 

    However, that explanation ignores easily observed and measurable inflation. And it’s inflation, not alleged consumer inflation, that is important. 

    BIS Study on CPI Deflation

    Note that a BIS Study finds that routine consumer price deflation is not damaging in the least.

    Specifically, the BIS concludes “Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive!”

    Worst of all, in their attempts to fight routine consumer price deflation, central bankers, led by the Fed, create very destructive asset bubbles that eventually collapse, setting off what they should fear – asset bubble deflations.

    A $150,000 House in 1988 Now Costs $707,500 Thank You Fed

    Using Case-Shiller data of repeat sales, on August 10, 2024, I noted A $150,000 House in 1988 Now Costs $707,500 Thank You Fed

    Mess Entirely of Fed’s Making

    This is a mess entirely of the Fed’s making. And it’s what happens when the Fed, and economists in general do not count home prices as inflation.

    Home prices are not directly in the CPI or PCE. The latter is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

    Economists consider home prices a capital expense not a consumer expense. The problem is simple: Inflation is not just a consumer price concern!

    The Fed ignored obvious inflation in the Great Recession and did so again in the Covid recession.

    Dual-State Economy

    And so here we are. The Fed is directly responsible for a dual-state economy of the haves vs the have-nots.

    The haves are the asset holders. They have largely benefitted from massive asset bubble inflation. The have-nots are those who want to buy a home but are priced out due to inflation.

    The Fed created this setup via QE and mortgage security purchases driving interest rates to zero and mortgage rates below 3 percent.

    Existing homeowners refinanced putting extra money in their pocket every month.

    The have-nots are trapped renting, while most of the haves are trapped in their homes unwilling to trade their 3 percent mortgage for a 6.85 percent mortgage.

    Meanwhile, the cost of insurance, maintenance, and property taxes on that home have jumped so much that 20 percent of people making over $150,000 a year are living paycheck to paycheck.

    End the Fed

    I believe I have made the case to end the Fed. Rather, the Fed made the case against itself.

    This idea was a discussion focus on this blog and the Mises Institute in a series of recent posts.

    Please see Fed “Playing With Fire” Take Two, Who Starts the Business Cycle? for a discussion of ideas and alternatives on ending or reigning in the Fed.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 19:15

  • 'Startling': GOP Early-Voting Turnout In Nevada Amazes Veteran Observer, Alarms Dems
    ‘Startling’: GOP Early-Voting Turnout In Nevada Amazes Veteran Observer, Alarms Dems

    Warning lights have been flashing all over the Democrats’ 2024 dashboard, and now a new one is pointing to big trouble for Kamala Harris in the battleground state of Nevada, where early voting results show that GOP voters are actually outnumbering Democrats. 

    Across the country, Democrats typically account for a majority of early votes, and Nevada has been no exception — until now. “The numbers look pretty GOP so far, and that never happens in a presidential year,” wrote veteran Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston in a Tuesday afternoon blog post at the Nevada Independent. 

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    Democrats lead statewide mail-in voting by 17,298, but Republicans lead in-person voting by a whopping 25,173 — even beating Dems in Clark County and Washoe County, homes of Las Vegas and Reno, respectively. Statewide, Republicans account for 52% of in-person early voting, Democrats are just 28%, and “other” is 20%. “Those in-person numbers are startling,” wrote Ralston, who’s been covering Silver State politics for three decades. “A few more days like this…and the Democratic bedwetting will reach epic proportions.”

    Another dynamic of Americans politics is the big distinction between urban and rural voting patterns, with cities reliably delivering large volumes of Democratic votes. In Nevada, the dynamic is perhaps even more pronounced, with Democrats’ statewide fortunes largely tied to the so-called “Clark firewall.” However, so far in 2024, that barrier is looking mighty short. “The Clark firewall is only 6,500, about a seventh of what it was in 2020,” wrote Ralston.

    The bigger picture is even worse for the Democrats: “The [Republican voter-turnout] lead in rural Nevada is more than double the [Democrat] lead in urban Nevada,” he wrote. The sea change prompted Ralston to declare that we’re witnessing a new dynamic in the 2024 cycle: “The [GOP] rural firewall. It’s a thing.”

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    The departure from norms could also have implications for what we see on Election Day: “It’s clear there are more Republicans voting early and by mail, which raises the possibility that Election Day may not be as robust for the GOP.” 

    Extrapolating the results, Ralston concludes that “it means Kamala Harris has to win indies by close to double digits if this turnout scenario holds.” He cautioned that we’ve only three days into 14 days of early voting, and that results could shift. However, he continued, “If this becomes a trend and not an anomaly, it will be over.” 

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    There’s also a Senate race in Nevada this year, pitting Republican challenger Sam Brown against incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen. The Cook Political Report rates the race as “Lean D,” while Polymarket bettors collectively have Democrat Rosen at an 80% chance of winning. That’s a big variance from the presidential race, where Polymarket gives Trump a 65% chance of taking the state’s six electoral votes.

    No Republican presidential candidate has won the state since George W. Bush beat John Kerry by a 50.5% to 47.9% margin in 2004… but it looks like the table is being set for an end to that decades-long losing streak. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 18:50

  • Denny's Plots 150 Closings As Part Of Its Growth Strategy
    Denny’s Plots 150 Closings As Part Of Its Growth Strategy

    By Peter Romeo of Restaurant Business Online

    Denny’s needs to close about a tenth of its stores before it can fully harness a comprehensive comeback plan that’s yielded encouraging early results, management informed Wall Street during the 71-year-old chain’s investor’s conference Tuesday. 

    Executives said they’ve tagged about 150 stores whose weak financial performance is sapping the whole system’s vitality. About half those units will be shut by the end of this year, with the rest slated to fire down their grills for good in 2025. 

    “We believe this is absolutely the right thing to do to make our system stronger,” company CEO Kelli Valade said in opening the daylong meeting with investors. 

    She spoke after the franchisor reported a 0.1% decrease in same-store sales for the Denny’s brand in the third quarter. Included in the results was an indication that Denny’s franchisees shut 18 units during the period, leaving the 1,590-unit system 53 restaurants smaller than it was at the end of the year-ago quarter.

    Valade said the closings were necessary to realize headquarters’ goals of raising Denny’s average annual unit volume to $2.2 million and putting a fresh face on the brand. 

    She did not reveal how pricing or traffic levels figured into the quarterly results, though she acknowledged that guest counts were down. “Everyone has lost traffic. Everyone,” Valade commented.

    She cited research showing sales for all of family dining are down about 20%, the steepest decline for any major industry segment. 

    The presentation from management also touched on how many of the chains in family dining, one of the restaurant business’ oldest sectors, are similarly shutting stores. 

    “We’ve contracted most since Covid, that’s a fact,” Valade said.

    Steve Dunn, Denny’s chief development officer, said the home office had reviewed every domestic unit of the chain to assess its financial strength. It found that the fifth of the system with the weakest performance was hurting the rest of the system because the stores were often old and located in markets whose consumer dynamics had changed. The decision was made, he said, to prune those stores for the benefit of the survivors.

    Valade said the systemwide evaluation also revealed the brand’s “Achilles heel,” a significant variation in the look of units from market to market. 

    Dunn indicated the inconsistency and aged look of some stores will be addressed in a comprehensive renovation program called Diner 2.0. It includes several financial incentives for franchisees to make the needed investments, including a grant of $100,000 to operators who opt to update. In exchange for the cash, participants agree to pay what management characterized as a slightly higher royalty fee, though it did not specify how much of an increase there would be.

    In addition, management has worked with a third party to create a $25 million loan pool to fund the updates.

    Restaurants given a facelift tend to see a $400,000 uplift in sales, according to Dunn. Experience has shown that the rejuvenated stores can expect a sales boost of 6.4% and a traffic upswing of 6.5%.

    A signature Denny’s feature that could be dropped from those stores is a requirement that they remain open around the clock. Valade revealed that about 25% of the system has opted not to operate through the night and suggested the chain will not aim for its pre-pandemic goal of every unit being open 24/7.

    Executives of the company reviewed their previously disclosed plan for reinvigorating Denny’s operations and sharpening the brand’s appeal to new and lapsed customers. That strategy pivots on value.

    Valade revealed that some customers are bringing down their tabs in part by ordering Denny’s kids meals more regularly.

    Other executives stressed that virtual concepts will remain a key part of the strategy. Denny’s currently boasts three digital brands: Burger Den, the Meltdown and its newest venture, Banda Burritos, which is now available featured in 1,000 Denny’s units. The three have generated $77 million in sales to date, according to Patty Trevino, the diner chain’s new chief brand officer.

    She revealed that Banda Burritos intends to steal a trick from its parent company’s playbook. The venture is currently eying the rollout of a product called the Grand Slam Burrito, a clear reference to Denny’s signature breakfast platter.

    Trevino stressed that Denny’s will continue to evolve its menu, not only through additions but by upgrading what’s already on the bill of fare. She noted, for instance, that the company has spent $8 million to improve its bacon.

    Keke’s gets some attention

    Management focused more on Denny’s young sister brand, Keke’s Breakfast Café, than executives typically have during their quarterly calls with financial analysts.

    Same-store sales for the still-regional operation slid 1% during the third quarter, said concept President Dave Schmidt.

    He revealed that the concept has been and will continue to be tweaked in preparation for rapid expansion. Development agreements have been signed for 140 stores, off the current base of 61 units. Much of that commitment has come from Denny’s franchisees, Schmidt indicated.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 18:25

  • Apple "Might Wind Down" Vision Pro Production Next Month Due To "Weak Demand" 
    Apple “Might Wind Down” Vision Pro Production Next Month Due To “Weak Demand” 

    A new report from The Information suggests Apple might suspend production of its Vision Pro mixed-reality headset as early as next month due to very weak demand. Some Asian suppliers have already reduced or stopped producing headset components since the summer. Additionally, the development of the next Vision Pro model has been delayed, while a more affordable headset is slated for the retail market by the end of 2025. 

    The first version has met weak demand, a result of its high price and the lack of apps available on it. Employees at three Vision Pro suppliers that supply a range of electrical and mechanical components told The Information they have so far built enough components for between 500,000 and 600,000 headsets.

    One of the employees said their factory suspended production of Vision Pro components in May based on Apple’s weak forecasts, and their warehouse remains filled with tens of thousands of undelivered parts.

    . . . 

    In recent weeks, Apple has told Luxshare, which is responsible for the Vision Pro’s final assembly, that it might need to wind down its manufacturing in November, according to an employee at the Chinese manufacturer. Luxshare is making around 1,000 Vision Pro units a day, down from a peak of around 2,000 units a day, the employee said. It has assembled a total of between 500,000 and 600,000 headsets since production began last year ahead of its February release in the U.S., the employee said.

    Apple’s move into the mixed-reality headset market with its $3,500 Vision Pro seems poorly timed, given the financial strain on many low- to mid-tier consumers. High inflation and elevated interest rates, primarily attributed to failed Bidenomics, have left millions of cash-strapped Americans in financial misery as they struggle to cover basic expenses like rent, groceries, car payments, insurance, and phone bills.

    The Vision Pro flop is nothing new to readers. We commented on a WSJ note earlier this month that showed the dismal demand for the headset means no ‘killer app’ anytime soon:

    There has been a significant slowdown in new apps coming to the Vision Pro every month. Only 10 apps were introduced to the Vision App Store in September, down from the hundreds released in the first two months of the device’s launch, according to analytics firm Appfigures.

    It has counted around 1,770 apps available for the Vision Pro in the App Store as of September. Only 34% of those apps are built specifically for the Vision Pro, while the rest are versions of existing Apple apps that have additional Vision Pro functionality, Appfigures said.

    Apple said in August that there are more than 2,500 apps built for the Vision Pro. Appfigures said the discrepancy between these two figures could be, in part, because some apps aren’t used enough to register on usage charts, making them difficult for the analytics firm to detect.

    A visualization from WSJ shows a considerable decline in the number of new apps released for Vision Pro every month since its launch.

    Source: WSJ

    We’ve previously noted…

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    Even from the start. 

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    Just like the AI-enabled iPhone 16, another bust for Apple. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 18:00

  • NASA Finally Comes To Grips With Telework Tumbleweeds
    NASA Finally Comes To Grips With Telework Tumbleweeds

    Authored by Pete McGinnis via RealClearPolicy,

    Two years on from COVID, the agency noticed sparse HQ attendance. 

    Someday, it may end up being one of those hoary old philosophical saws: “If the lease on a government agency’s headquarters expires, but nobody actually works there, do the taxpayers’ sighs of relief make a sound?” 

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) may have the honor of being the first federal agency to find out. Heavily redacted communications obtained by the Functional Government Initiative (FGI) show that the lease on NASA’s headquarters expires in 2028. An email from an official at the General Services Administration, which manages offices and properties for the federal government, said, “The agency is starting the process of evaluating options including leasing, buying a different building, or construction of a new headquarters building, all within the Washington area and close to public transportation.” There was one big problem: knowing how many workers a new HQ will have to house, because nobody at the agency seems to know how many workers show up at the office now.  

    NASA email chains reflect the confusion. One staffer involved in the discussion asked, “Are enterprise organizations on remote work agreements counted in their analysis of under 50% work being performed on-site?” Another had to explain that “100% telework … that is not a thing!” Apparently “Telework Coordinators” are doing a review of each pay period to determine who coded to 100% telework, the reason why, and conducting education and counseling when needed. The last alternative is the employee is not reporting onsite on a regular basis without approval and in contradiction to the regulation.  

    (Ironically, we know of two NASA employees who would dearly love to work from home but can’t. Rest assured, NASA’s doing everything that can be done while in PJs and bunny slippers to get its astronauts home. In the meantime, it’s good to know the SpaceX offices are rocking.) 

    Of course, it’s not only NASA. In spring 2023, the House Subcommittee on Government Operations and the Federal Workforce asked 25 agencies to report on the status of their telework arrangements. On November 29, 2023, Subcommittee Chairman Pete Sessions told a hearing, “I want to be clear, of the 25 agencies we wrote last spring, many responses were not, in fact, responsive. Eleven of the 25 did not include any figures at all regarding how many of their employees were currently teleworking—either in the Washington, D.C. area or agency-wide.” On the other side of the Capitol, Senator Joni Ernst (Iowa) has been aggressive in her push for transparency in telework and waste from mostly empty federal buildings.  

    Federal workers don’t much seem to miss the watercooler banter of yesteryear. They haven’t exactly been sprinting back to their offices in the two-plus years since the COVID-19 pandemic ended, and getting them back in hasn’t been a priority for the Biden-Harris administration. Despite demands from Congress and an order from President Biden, the trickle of returning workers hasn’t become a flood. 

    At NASA, with its “analysis of under 50% work being performed on-site,” it apparently took until February of 2024 to finally notice the tumbleweeds rolling through HQ and announce to staff it would significantly condense its space: “With daily occupancy in the building so low, people are spread out, which is a waste of space, can be tough on employees and is not the best use of taxpayer dollars.”  

    It’s nice that somebody’s thinking of the taxpayers. But while HQ was being rehabbed, NASA was going to 100% telework until “perhaps May.” And if the agency does move to a new building, the goal seems to be to have people in the office 90% of the time. So that “close to public transportation” feature will be handy. Some day. 

    To recap: the agency is considering a shiny new HQ building but can’t confidently say how many workers it will need to house, and managers don’t seem to know where everyone is. And their only answer is more telework. Meanwhile, the agency is conspicuously failing in the “Aeronautics and Space” mission it was created for and being bailed out by private enterprise. This is classic government dysfunction. 

    But it’s worse. It’s more proof – as though more were needed – that in the federal bureaucracy there’s little accountability and even less concern about what the people who pay the bills think about it. 

    Pete McGinnis is director of communications at the Functional Government Initiative.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 17:40

  • DOJ Warns Musk Over $1M Voter Giveaway: Report
    DOJ Warns Musk Over $1M Voter Giveaway: Report

    While the Biden-Harris DOJ has been silent over allegations that Democrat fundraising platform ActBlue is using illegal straw donors, they sure seem to have a problem with Elon Musk’s super PAC – and has issued a warning in an alleged letter that its $1 million daily giveaway in battleground states may violate federal law, NBC News reports (based on an anonymous source, so who knows).

    According to the report, the letter follows mounting pressure to stop the program.

    The letter, which was earlier reported by CNN, follows mounting pressure on state and federal authorities to investigate Musk’s lottery as a potential violation of election laws, including a ban on paying people to register to vote. On Monday, a group of ex-prosecutors and other former government officials sent a letter to the Justice Department requesting an investigation. 

    News of the letter come on the same day that left-wing public advocacy group Public Citizen filed a complaint with the Federal Elections Commission alleging that the contest violates campaign finance law because “the purpose of the $1 million reward for signing the petition appears to be to motivate voter registration and voting at the polls by those sympathetic with the candidacy of Donald Trump in the key swing states for the 2024 presidential election.”

    According to the complaint, because the contest is only available to registered voters, it may constitute an illegal financial incentive to get people to register to vote.

    On the other hand, Musk’s PAC, the America PAC, is asking people to sign a petition for the chance to win $1 million – not explicitly rewarding them for registering to vote.

    SpaceX and Tesla founder Elon Musk awarded Kristine Fishell with a $1 million check during the town hall at the Roxain Theater on October 20, 2024 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
    Michael Swensen/Getty Images

    On Sunday, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) told Meet the Press that the contest was “concerning,” and “something that law enforcement could take a look at.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsWhile we don’t know the contents of the alleged DOJ letter – or if it exists, it’s likely to be a cease-and-desist letter, similar to what Ben & Jerry’s Ice Cream received in 2008 when they offered everyone with an “I Voted” sticker a free ice cream cone on election day.

    According to NBC News legal experts, the giveaway falls into a legal gray area that may or may not violate election law.

    “I can see what people are saying when they argue this violates the law, but I don’t think it does,” said election law expert Matthew Sanderson.

    Musk announced the giveaway last Saturday at a town hall event in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 17:20

  • Waste Of The Day: States Are $811 Billion In Debt
    Waste Of The Day: States Are $811 Billion In Debt

    Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

    Topline: America’s 50 state governments will need an extra $811 billion to pay off their current debt, according to the annual “State of the States” report from Truth in Accounting.

    Key facts: State governments had $2.9 billion in debt and only $2.1 trillion in assets at the end of fiscal year 2023, Truth in Accounting, a nonpartisan organization that promotes fiscal transparency and accountability, found. The gap will need to be covered by taxpayers sometime in the future.

    Twenty-seven states have “taxpayer burdens,” meaning their budget is not balanced and they would need to collect at least $900 from every person in the state to eliminate their debt. Massachusetts, Illinois, New Jersey and Connecticut received a letter grade of “F” because they would need over $25,000 from every resident to pay their bills.

    Only 23 states had what Truth in Accounting calls a “taxpayer surplus,” meaning they could pay off all of their debt and still have money to return to taxpayers. Four states received a letter grade of “A” because they have a taxpayer surplus above $10,000: North Dakota, Alaska, Wyoming and Utah.

    Unfunded pension liabilities contributed $840 billion to the debt. States have promised to eventually pay pensions to teachers, firefighters, cops and more, but have only saved up 70% of the necessary cash.

    Other post-retirement benefits are underfunded by $493 billion. They mostly consist of lifetime healthcare plans, for which states have saved up only 14% of the money they’ve promised to current employees.

    Researchers wrote that “Unfortunately, some elected officials have used portions of the money owed to pension and OPEB funds to keep taxes low and pay for politically popular programs. This is similar to charging earned benefits to a credit card without having the money to pay off the debt.”

    Underreporting pension liabilities is just one “accounting trick” politicians use to falsely claim their budgets are balanced, according to Truth in Accounting. Some states also overstate their revenue, count borrowed money as income, and more.

    Every state has a law requiring their budget to be balanced, except for Vermont.

    Search all federal, state and local government salaries and vendor spending with the AI search bot, Benjamin, at OpenTheBooks.com.

    Summary: The national debt makes headlines constantly, but the fiscal problems at the state level can’t be ignored.

    The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 17:00

  • 'The Atlantic' Immediately Debunked After Attempting Yet Another Trump Military Hit Piece
    ‘The Atlantic’ Immediately Debunked After Attempting Yet Another Trump Military Hit Piece

    Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

    The sister of slain soldier Vanessa Guillén slammed The Atlantic after it used anonymous sources to allege that President Donald Trump disparaged her after discovering the funeral expenses. 

    Guillén’s death at the hands of a fellow soldier and his girlfriend became national news in 2020, with Trump comforting the grief-stricken family and extending death benefits. He also offered to cover the costs personally if the Army did not pay for the funeral expenses. 

    The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg, however, attempted to rewrite history on Tuesday, claiming that Trump was outraged when he learned that Guillén’s funeral, which included heightened security and closed streets, cost $60,000. 

    According to the magazine—relying on an anonymous source—Trump allegedly said, “It doesn’t cost 60,000 bucks to bury a fucking Mexican!” and ordered then-White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows to deny payment. 

    Guillén’s sister, Mayra, issued a viral statement on X, condemning The Atlantic’s distorted portrayal of her experience with Trump. 

    “I don’t appreciate how you are exploiting my sister’s death for politics- hurtful & disrespectful to the important changes she made for service members,” Mayra wrote on X, garnering over 3 million views. 

    “President Donald Trump did nothing but show respect to my family & Vanessa. In fact, I voted for President Trump today,” Mayra added.

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    In another post, Mayra emphasized that her sister’s death should never be politicized. 

    “Unbelievable,” she continued. 

    The denials did not stop there as Meadows took to X, refuting the allegations. 

    “Any suggestion that President Trump disparaged Ms. Guillen or refused to pay for her funeral expenses is absolutely false,” Meadows wrote.

    “He was nothing but kind, gracious, and wanted to make sure that the military and the U.S. government did right by Vanessa Guillen and her family.”

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    Meadows’s spokesperson, Ben Williamson, explicitly denied that Trump ever made the remarks in comments provided before publication.

    The Atlantic omitted these comments, claiming that Williamson denied ever hearing such remarks.

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    This marked the second instance of The Atlantic publishing demonstrably false claims against Trump.

    The magazine previously claimed that Trump refused to visit a veteran cemetery because he allegedly called fallen soldiers “suckers” and “losers.” 

    It was later revealed that the cemetery trip was canceled due to poor weather, which required Trump to travel by helicopter. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 16:20

  • Traders Sell Everything As Dollar & Yields Soar To 3-Month Highs
    Traders Sell Everything As Dollar & Yields Soar To 3-Month Highs

    Stocks dropped for the third day in a row today (longest streak since early Sept) with the S&P’s worst loss in seven weeks, as with a big h/t to Goldman, it seems equity market bulls finally noticed the recent explosion in rates.

    Treasury yields rose across the curve again today (with the long-end outperforming – 2Y +5bps, 30Y +2bps)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    But, the recent 2-sigma move in rates (as we have seen) implies serious drawdowns for stocks…

    …and the surge in rates (10Y +55bps in the last three weeks) suddenly hit stocks…

    Source: Bloomberg

    …and ‘Trumpflation’ has prompted a market-wide rethink of rate-cut expectations (lower/hawkish), especially for next year…

    Source: Bloomberg

    …and that all weighed on stocks bigly today. There was a small comeback after The Beige Book signaled some dovishness, but Nasdaq was the day’s biggest loser (down over 2% at one point)…

    A big down-day for mega-cap tech today…

    Source: Bloomberg

    All seven of the Mag7 stocks were down today – that is the first time that’s happened since Sept 6th…

    Source: Bloomberg

    ‘Most Shorted’ stocks were monkeyhammered lower…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Even the so-called ‘Trump Trade’ saw selling pressure today (though the “Democratic Victory’ basket was hit even harder, so don’t get all excited Kamala)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Goldman’s trading desk noted that overall activity levels are up +5% vs. the trailing 2 weeks with market volumes up +5% vs the 10dma, with their floor basically paired Buy vs. Sell with HFs net to buy and LOs net for sale

    • HFs are +7% better to buy with Demand in Macro Products, Industrials & Tech offsetting supply in Fins, Utes & Comms Svcs

    • LOs are -2% better for sale.  Tech supply from them outweighs supply in Staples and Cons Svcs by 3:1.  Demand is led by Cons Disc, Mats & HCare.

    Meanwhile, the dollar refuses to stop, rallying up to its strongest since early July against its fiat peers…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasury yields are rising as fast as the dollar – also up to three month highs (all above 4.00%)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar strength finally smacked gold lower today… but not before the precious metal hit a new intraday record high…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Silver underperformed gold on the day after a decent run against the barbarous relic…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Crypto was clubbed like a baby seal also, with Bitcoin fading back towards $65,000….

    Source: Bloomberg

    After two strong days, oil prices slipped lower on an inventory build, higher crude production, and no extreme headlines out of the MidEast (yet)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, prediction markets continue to trend in Trump’s direction…

    Source: Bloomberg

    …and even the polls are starting to move in his favor (because there’s only so much ‘cheat’ margin to play with).

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 16:00

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Today’s News 23rd October 2024

  • Poles Are Getting Fed Up With Ukrainian Refugees & The Proxy War; Latest Survey Shows
    Poles Are Getting Fed Up With Ukrainian Refugees & The Proxy War; Latest Survey Shows

    Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

    The state-run Polish Press Agency recently reported on the publication of the latest survey by the publicly financed Center for Public Opinion Research about Poles’ attitudes towards Ukrainian refugees and the proxy war.

    The results might surprise casual observers who hitherto assumed that this population is still gung-ho about both due to their supposedly innate and irredeemable Russophobia. Before diving into the details, the reader should review these three prior analyses on this subject:

    * 21 February: “A Top EU Think Tank’s Poll Proved That Polish Views Towards Ukraine Are Noticeably Shifting”

    * 27 March: “What Do The Latest Surveys Say About Poles’ Attitudes Towards Ukraine & The Farmers’ Protests?”

    * 8 July: “Interpreting A Top EU Think Tank’s Latest Survey On Polish Attitudes Towards Ukraine”

    Having shared the evolving statistical context for those who are interested, it’s now time to highlight what the latest survey showed.

    Only a little more than half of Poles (53%) support accepting more Ukrainian refugees, while two-thirds (67%) want to deport conscription-aged Ukrainian males (25-60 years old).

    Less than half (46%) support Ukraine continuing to fight Russia, slightly less (39%) want it to give up territory for peace, and a little bit more (44%) believe that this will ultimately happen in any case.

    The military-strategic context within which these results were obtained is that Poland confirmed in late August, several weeks before the survey was conducted between 12-22 September, that it had already maxed out its military support for Ukraine.

    Mainstream Media outlets like CNN also began sharing glimpses of just how bad everything had become for Ukraine too.

    The Volhynia Genocide dispute, which deeply enrages most Poles, returned to the fore of bilateral relations in early September as well.

    This confluence of factors served to catalyze the preexisting trends that were discovered by the previously cited surveys and led to the surprising situation where two-thirds of Poles want to deport conscription-aged Ukrainian males even though less than half support Ukraine continuing to fight Russia.

    In other words, they want to send them to their deaths for a cause that they themselves no longer support, which hints at a vindictiveness towards them that’s only now being discussed by top officials.

    Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz told an interviewer last week that:

    “The fact is that our society is very shocked by the sight of young men from Ukraine driving the best cars, spending weekends in five-star hotels. And this is unfair to Poles, who contribute to healthcare, benefits, education, not to mention weapons supplies and other assistance.”

    He himself also expressed resentment towards his state-level Ukrainian peers by accusing them of taking Polish aid for granted.

    In his words, “We gave Ukraine military equipment worth over 15 billion złoty and we were the first to do so when others were wondering whether they could send anything. If we, as Poland, had not given them all those tanks, planes and other weapons, there would be no one to help today. And I have the feeling that the Ukrainian side does not remember this, is not aware that if it were not for this Polish help, they would not have reached the stage they are at today. This is not right.”

    It therefore naturally follows that a growing number of Poles have become fed up with Ukrainian refugees and the proxy war after feeling that their country has been taken advantage of. Poles are a generous people, but they also have enough self-respect to not tolerate ingratitude from those who they help. Ukrainians and their state have spit in Poles’ faces for far too long, which is why most of the latter now want to throw those that have leeched off of them into the Russian meatgrinder as revenge. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 10/23/2024 – 02:00

  • The Danger Is Real: The Deep State's Plot To Destabilize The Nation Is Working
    The Danger Is Real: The Deep State’s Plot To Destabilize The Nation Is Working

    Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out … without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.”

    – H. L. Mencken

    If the three-ring circus that is the looming presidential election proves anything, it is that the Deep State’s plot to destabilize the nation is working.

    The danger is real.

    Caught up in the heavily dramatized electoral showdown between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, Americans have become oblivious to the multitude of ways in which the government is goosestepping all over our freedoms on a daily basis.

    Especially alarming is the extent to which those on both sides are allowing themselves to be gaslighted by both Trump and Harris about critical issues of the day, selectively choosing to hear only what they want to hear when it casts the opposition in a negative light.

    This is true whether you’re talking about immigration and border control, health care, national security, the nation’s endless wars, protections for free speech, or the militarization of the U.S. government.

    For starters, there’s the free speech double standard, what my good friend Nat Hentoff used to refer to as the “free speech for me but not for thee” phenomenon in which the First Amendment’s protections only apply to those with whom we might agree.

    Despite her claims to being a champion for the rule of law, which in our case is the U.S. Constitution, Harris isn’t averse to policing so-called “hate” speech. In this, Harris is not unlike those on both the Right and the Left who continue to express a distaste for unregulated, free speech online, especially when it comes to speech with which they might disagree.

    Then there’s Trump, never a fan of free speech protections for his critics, who has been particularly vocal about his desire to see the military vanquish “radical left lunatics,” which he has dubbed “the enemy from within.”

    If it were only about muzzling free speech activities, that would be concerning enough.

    But Trump’s enthusiasm for using the military to target domestic enemies of the state should send off warning bells, especially coinciding as it does with the Department of Defense’s recent re-issuance of Directive 5240.01, which empowers the military to assist law enforcement “in situations where a confrontation between civilian law enforcement and civilian individuals or groups is reasonably anticipated.”

    This is what martial law looks like—a government of force that relies on the military to enforce its authority—and it’s exactly what America’s founders feared, which is why they opted for a republic bound by the rule of law: the U.S. Constitution.

    Responding to concerns that the military would be used for domestic policing, Congress passed the Posse Comitatus Act in 1878, which makes it a crime for the government to use the military to carry out arrests, searches, seizure of evidence and other activities normally handled by a civilian police force.

    The increasing militarization of the police, the use of sophisticated weaponry against Americans and the government’s increasing tendency to employ military personnel domestically have all but eviscerated historic prohibitions such as the Posse Comitatus Act.

    Yet sometime over the course of the past 240-plus years that constitutional republic has been transformed into a military dictatorship disguised as a democracy.

    Unfortunately, most Americans seem relatively untroubled by the fact that our constitutional republic is being transformed into a military dictatorship disguised as a democracy.

    The seeds of chaos that have been sown in recent years are all part of the Deep State’s plans to usher in martial law.

    Observe for yourself what has been happening right before our eyes.

    Domestic terrorism fueled by government entrapment schemes. Civil unrest stoked to dangerous levels by polarizing political rhetoric. A growing intolerance for dissent that challenges the government’s power grabs. Police brutality tacitly encouraged by the executive branch, conveniently overlooked by the legislatures, and granted qualified immunity by the courts. A weakening economy exacerbated by government schemes that favor none but a select few. Heightened foreign tensions and blowback due to the military industrial complex’s profit-driven quest to police and occupy the globe.

    This is no conspiracy theory.

    There’s trouble brewing, and the government is masterminding a response using the military.

    Just take a look at “Megacities: Urban Future, the Emerging Complexity,” a Pentagon training video created by the Army for U.S. Special Operations Command.

    The training video is only five minutes long, but it says a lot about the government’s mindset, the way its views the citizenry, and the so-called “problems” that the government must be prepared to address in the near future through the use of martial law.

    Even more troubling, however, is what this military video doesn’t say about the Constitution, about the rights of the citizenry, and about the dangers of locking down the nation and using the military to address political and social problems.

    The training video anticipates that all hell will break loose by 2030, but the future is here ahead of schedule.

    We’re already witnessing a breakdown of society on virtually every front.

    By waging endless wars abroad, by bringing the instruments of war home, by transforming police into extensions of the military, by turning a free society into a suspect society, by treating American citizens like enemy combatants, by discouraging and criminalizing a free exchange of ideas, by making violence its calling card through SWAT team raids and militarized police, by fomenting division and strife among the citizenry, by acclimating the citizenry to the sights and sounds of war, and by generally making peaceful revolution all but impossible, the government has engineered an environment in which domestic violence is becoming almost inevitable.

    The danger signs are screaming out a message

    The government is anticipating trouble (read: civil unrest), which is code for anything that challenges the government’s authority, wealth and power.

    According to the Pentagon training video created by the Army for U.S. Special Operations Command, the U.S. government is grooming its armed forces to solve future domestic political and social problems.

    What they’re really talking about is martial law, packaged as a well-meaning and overriding concern for the nation’s security.

    The chilling five-minute training video, obtained by The Intercept through a FOIA request and made available online, paints an ominous picture of the future—a future the military is preparing for—bedeviled by “criminal networks,” “substandard infrastructure,” “religious and ethnic tensions,” “impoverishment, slums,” “open landfills, over-burdened sewers,” a “growing mass of unemployed,” and an urban landscape in which the prosperous economic elite must be protected from the impoverishment of the have nots.

    And then comes the kicker.

    Three-and-a-half minutes into the Pentagon’s dystopian vision of “a world of Robert Kaplan-esque urban hellscapes — brutal and anarchic supercities filled with gangs of youth-gone-wild, a restive underclass, criminal syndicates, and bands of malicious hackers,” the ominous voice of the narrator speaks of a need to “drain the swamps.”

    Drain the swamps.

    Surely, we’ve heard that phrase before?

    Ah yes.

    Emblazoned on t-shirts and signs, shouted at rallies, and used as a rallying cry among Trump supporters, “drain the swamp” became one of Donald Trump’s most-used campaign slogans.

    Now the government has adopted its own plans for swamp-draining, only it wants to use the military to drain the swamps of futuristic urban American cities of “noncombatants and engage the remaining adversaries in high intensity conflict within.”

    And who are these noncombatants, a military term that refers to civilians who are not engaged in fighting?

    They are, according to the Pentagon, “adversaries.”

    They are “threats.”

    They are the “enemy.”

    They are people who don’t support the government, people who live in fast-growing urban communities, people who may be less well-off economically than the government and corporate elite, people who engage in protests, people who are unemployed, people who engage in crime (in keeping with the government’s fast-growing, overly broad definition of what constitutes a crime).

    In other words, in the eyes of the U.S. military, noncombatants are American citizens a.k.a. domestic extremists a.k.a. enemy combatants who must be identified, targeted, detained, contained and, if necessary, eliminated.

    In the future imagined by the Pentagon, any walls and prisons that are built will be used to protect the societal elite—the haves—from the have-nots.

    If you haven’t figured it out already, we the people are the have-nots.

    Suddenly it all begins to make sense.

    The events of recent years: the invasive surveillance, the extremism reports, the civil unrest, the protests, the shootings, the bombings, the military exercises and active shooter drills, the color-coded alerts and threat assessments, the fusion centers, the transformation of local police into extensions of the military, the distribution of military equipment and weapons to local police forces, the government databases containing the names of dissidents and potential troublemakers.

    The government is systematically locking down the nation and shifting us into martial law.

    This is how you prepare a populace to accept a police state willingly, even gratefully.

    You don’t scare them by making dramatic changes. Rather, you acclimate them slowly to their prison walls.

    Persuade the citizenry that their prison walls are merely intended to keep them safe and danger out. Desensitize them to violence, acclimate them to a military presence in their communities, and persuade them that there is nothing they can do to alter the seemingly hopeless trajectory of the nation.

    Before long, no one will even notice the floundering economy, the blowback arising from military occupations abroad, the police shootings, the nation’s deteriorating infrastructure and all of the other mounting concerns.

    It’s happening already.

    The sight of police clad in body armor and gas masks, wielding semiautomatic rifles and escorting an armored vehicle through a crowded street, a scene likened to “a military patrol through a hostile city,” no longer causes alarm among the general populace.

    Few seem to care about the government’s endless wars abroad that leave communities shattered, families devastated and our national security at greater risk of blowback.

    The Deep State’s tactics are working.

    We’ve allowed ourselves to be acclimated to the occasional lockdown of government buildings, Jade Helm military drills in small towns so that special operations forces can get “realistic military training” in “hostile” territory, and  Live Active Shooter Drill training exercises, carried out at schools, in shopping malls, and on public transit, which can and do fool law enforcement officials, students, teachers and bystanders into thinking it’s a real crisis.

    Still, you can’t say we weren’t warned about the government’s nefarious schemes to lock down the nation.

    Back in 2008, an Army War College report revealed that “widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security.” The 44-page report went on to warn that potential causes for such civil unrest could include another terrorist attack, “unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters.”

    In 2009, reports by the Department of Homeland Security surfaced that labelled right-wing and left-wing activists and military veterans as extremists (a.k.a. terrorists) and called on the government to subject such targeted individuals to full-fledged pre-crime surveillance. Almost a decade later, after spending billions to fight terrorism, the DHS concluded that the greater threat is not ISIS but domestic right-wing extremism.

    Meanwhile, the government has been amassing an arsenal of military weapons for use domestically and equipping and training their “troops” for war. Even government agencies with largely administrative functions such as the Food and Drug Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Smithsonian have been acquiring body armor, riot helmets and shields, cannon launchers and police firearms and ammunition. In fact, there are now at least 120,000 armed federal agents carrying such weapons who possess the power to arrest.

    Rounding out this profit-driven campaign to turn American citizens into enemy combatants (and America into a battlefield) is a technology sector that has been colluding with the government to create a Big Brother that is all-knowing, all-seeing and inescapable. It’s not just the drones, fusion centers, license plate readers, stingray devices and the NSA that you have to worry about. You’re also being tracked by the black boxes in your cars, your cell phone, smart devices in your home, grocery loyalty cards, social media accounts, credit cards, streaming services such as Netflix, Amazon, and e-book reader accounts.

    All of this has taken place right under our noses, funded with our taxpayer dollars and carried out in broad daylight without so much as a general outcry from the citizenry.

    And then you have the government’s Machiavellian schemes for unleashing all manner of dangers on an unsuspecting populace, then demanding additional powers in order to protect “we the people” from the threats.

    Are you getting the picture yet?

    The U.S. government isn’t protecting us from terrorism.

    The U.S. government is creating the terror. It is, in fact, the source of the terror.

    Just think about it for a minute: Cyberwarfare. Terrorism. Bio-chemical attacks. The nuclear arms race. Surveillance. The drug wars.

    Almost every national security threat that the government has claimed greater powers in order to fight—all the while undermining the liberties of the American citizenry—has been manufactured in one way or another by the government.

    Did I say Machiavellian? This is downright evil.

    We’re not dealing with a government that exists to serve its people, protect their liberties and ensure their happiness. Rather, these are the diabolical machinations of a make-works program carried out on an epic scale whose only purpose is to keep the powers-that-be permanently (and profitably) employed.

    Mind you, by “government,” I’m not referring to the highly partisan, two-party bureaucracy of the Republicans and Democrats.

    I’m referring to “government” with a capital “G,” the entrenched Deep State that is unaffected by elections, unaltered by populist movements, and has set itself beyond the reach of the law.

    I’m referring to the corporatized, militarized, entrenched bureaucracy that is fully operational and staffed by unelected officials who are, in essence, running the country and calling the shots in Washington DC, no matter who sits in the White House.

    Be warned: in the future envisioned by the government, we will not be viewed as Republicans or Democrats. Rather, “we the people” will be enemies of the state.

    For years, the government has been warning against the dangers of domestic terrorism, erecting surveillance systems to monitor its own citizens, creating classification systems to label any viewpoints that challenge the status quo as extremist, and training law enforcement agencies to equate anyone possessing anti-government views as a domestic terrorist.

    What the government failed to explain was that the domestic terrorists would be of the government’s own making, and that “we the people” would become enemy #1.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, we’re already enemies of the state.

    It’s time to wake up and stop being deceived by Deep State propaganda.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 23:25

  • Reporter Injured By Bullet Fragment During Kinzinger-Democrat Campaign Stunt
    Reporter Injured By Bullet Fragment During Kinzinger-Democrat Campaign Stunt

    A local TV reporter was struck in the arm with a bullet fragment while covering a campaign event for a Democratic Senate candidate featuring former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R).

    Missouri Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Lucas Kunce applies first aid to KSHB 41 reporter Ryan Gamboa after Gamboa was struck by ricochet from a bullet fragment shot from a gun handled by Kunce during a sport shooting campaign event with former Republican representative Adam Kinzinger on Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024 in Holt, Missouri. Dominick Williams dowilliams@kcstar.com

    Missouri Democratic candidate Lucas Kunce – who’s trying to unseat Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) – was shooting an AR-15 at the time, and was the only person shooting when KSHB-TV’s Ryan Gamboa was struck.

    Missouri Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Lucas Kunce fires rounds from a custom AR15 during a sport shooting campaign event Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024 in Holt, Missouri. Dominick Williams dowilliams@kcstar.com

    Kunce, a former Marine, wrapped gauze around Gamboa’s arm and applied a tourniquet using his belt, according to the Kansas City Star, which notes that ‘Kunce has his military background in campaign ads, some of which show him firing a gun.‘

    After he was treated, Gamboa soldiered on covering the event.

    Missouri Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Lucas Kunce takes questions from KSHB 41 reporter Ryan Gamboa after Gamboa was struck by ricochet from a bullet fragment shot from a gun handled by Kunce during a sport shooting campaign event Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024 in Holt, Missouri. Dominick Williams dowilliams@kcstar.com

    Maybe ‘hunters’ Kamala Harris and Tim Walz should have stopped by to offer some tips – like how to load a shotgun with your crotch?

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 23:00

  • Israeli Ministers Call For Expulsion Of Palestinians At 'Resettle Gaza' Conference
    Israeli Ministers Call For Expulsion Of Palestinians At ‘Resettle Gaza’ Conference

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    On Monday, Israeli Knesset members and senior government ministers attended a conference on re-establishing Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip that was held in southern Israel near the Gaza border.

    The conference, titled “Preparing to Resettle Gaza,” was organized by the Israeli settler organization Nachala and members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party.

    Image: Times of Israel/Nachala Settlement Movement

    At least ten out of the 32 Likud party members in the Israeli Knesset were set to attend the conference, including May Golan, who is in Netanyahu’s government as the minister for Social Equality and the Advancement of the Status of Women.

    In a speech at the rally, which drew hundreds of attendees, Golan vowed Palestinians in Gaza would face another “Nakba,” referring to the ethnic cleansing of Palestinian Arabs when the modern state of Israel was formed in 1948.

    “We will hit them where it hurts – their land,” Golan said, according to Haaretz. “Anyone who uses their plot of land to plan another Holocaust will receive from us, with God’s help, another Nakba that they will tell their children and their grandchildren about for the next 50 years.”

    National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of the Jewish Power party, also delivered a speech at the conference, and he received a very warm welcome. Haaretz reported that attendees broke out in chants of “Look over here, it’s our next Prime Minister” and “Death penalty for terrorists,” referring to Ben Gvir’s calls to execute Palestinian prisoners to make room in Israeli prisons.

    In his speech, Ben Gvir said, “We will encourage the voluntary transfer of all Gazan citizens. We will offer them the opportunity to move to other countries because that land belongs to us.”

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    Ben Gvir and other proponents of conquering Gaza have framed their idea as “voluntary” for the Palestinians, but the Israeli military campaign has made most of Gaza uninhabitable. Palestinians in northern Gaza are currently facing Israeli evacuation orders to move to the south under the threat of death by military action or starvation.

    Other Israeli ministers who attended the conference include Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Yitzhak Wasserlauf, the minister for the development of the Negev and Galilee.

    Daniella Weiss, a leader of Nachala, vowed that Jewish settlements would begin popping up in Gaza within a year. “In less than a year, each one of you can call me and ask me if I succeeded in fulfilling my dream,” she told reporters at the conference. “Actually, you don’t even have to call me. You will witness how Jews go to Gaza and Arabs disappear from Gaza.”

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    Weiss also made it clear that her ambitions for Israeli expansion did not stop in Gaza or the West Bank. “The real borders of greater Israel are between the Euphrates River and the Nile.”

    Haaretz recently reported that the Israeli government is not seeking to revive ceasefire talks with Hamas and is now pushing for the gradual annexation of large portions of the Gaza Strip.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 22:35

  • Escape Biden-flation Storm With A Walmart Tiny Home
    Escape Biden-flation Storm With A Walmart Tiny Home

    Housing affordability in the United States under the Biden-Harris administration has hit a generational low. After all, WEF’s slogan of ‘owning nothing and being happy’ has become an alarming reality for millions of Americans in the last 3.5 years.

    To counter this hellscape that Democrats have created through the worst inflation storm since the 1970s, folks stuck in the doom loop of renting in dangerous big cities should find a plot of land in rural America. Next, find a tiny home. 

    We’ve discussed this for years: as the standard of living implodes in the US, the size of homes will shrink. Television shows have popularized tiny homes in recent years, and big-box retailers have been selling them (Home Depot).

    Walmart is the latest retailer selling tiny homes. It now offers a 19-by-20-foot “expandable prefab house” delivered by flatbed truck for $15,900.

    It looks almost like a double-wide mobile home from the Canadian mockumentary television sitcom ‘Trailer Park Boys.’ 

    For $21,888, Walmart is offering a towable tiny home. 

    Next, browse Zillow for land lots in rural America. A simple search in Terra Alta, West Virginia, shows numerous lots with multiple acres for dirt cheap.

    Why go this route? Well, it’s cheaper than trying to afford the most basic home. Also, grow your own food and source locally, breaking away from the processed food industrial complex.

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    According to data compiled by the National Association of Realtors, the average household income to buy a home now requires over $100k. 

    Infographic: Majority of Americans Can No Longer Afford an Average House | Statista

    Housing affordability has collapsed to record lows under Biden-Harris…

    Power hookups and wells are extra costs. Plus, for remote workers, connecting to the internet is as easy as using a Starlink terminal.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 22:10

  • Health Care Is Complicated
    Health Care Is Complicated

    Authored by Jerry Rogers via RealClearHealth,

    The American healthcare system is not really one system. No, health care in the U.S. is comprised of several systems – Medicare, Medicaid, TRICARE, private insurance as well as myriad state and local healthcare programs. What’s more, patients have access to charity care programs and patient assistant programs. For instance, pharmaceutical manufacturers sponsor patient assistance programs (PAPs) that provide financial assistance or free product (through in-kind product donations) to low-income individuals to augment any existing prescription drug coverage.

    So, when you hear a politician talking about quick fixes to lower the cost of medicine, usher in a single-payer system like ‘Medicare-for-All’, or bring about an immediate free-market revolution to health care, it’s not true. There are no easy reforms or singular solutions that will impact all the layers and complications of providing greater access to health care at lower costs.

    Healthcare reform requires numerous transformations that will take time, and the willingness of both the public and private sectors to evolve. The one truth about American health care is that it’s a complete mess.

    The current health care environment demands an ‘all-of-the-above’ approach – more private-sector competition, health insurance flexibility, greater price transparency, and myriad other reforms. For instance, what are Alternative Funding Programs (AFPs) and how do they deliver medical coverage to patients?

    Businesses are desperate to remain competitive – our economy has been shattered by historic inflation, unprecedented supply-chain shortages, high interest rates, and low-cost foreign competition. AFPs could help small businesses in their efforts to stay open – and thrive. AFPs help companies reduce their health care costs by ‘offloading’ the health expenses of certain specialty medications. AFPs can do this by exploiting the pharmaceutical industry’s charitable giving – the patient assistant programs. Very simply put, AFPs help employers lower their pharmacy benefit costs. Alternative Payment Programs advocate for patients by navigating the complicated healthcare landscape of PAPS to find solutions where employer-sponsored health plans fall short.

    Millions of Americans are underinsured – they might have some form of group health plan coverage, but that coverage doesn’t adequately address their medical costs – the specialty medicines they need. Specialty drugs are high-cost prescription medications used by patients with serious, complex illnesses – for instance, patients with cancer, arthritis or MS. AFPs fill the insurance gap for the underinsured patient – an insurance gap that if not addressed leaves patients vulnerable to both serious illnesses and financial ruin.

    AFPs can help patients lacking traditional insurance; specifically, patients who are in self-funded plans that do not provide coverage for high-cost prescription medications needed to treat chronic conditions – i.e., specialty medicines. AFPs serve patients who can’t afford treatment, and patients who lack the financial means to pay for the medication out-of-pocket.

    AFPs are a growing presence impacting our healthcare systems, and their business model is provocative. The pharmaceutical industry points to how AFPs are designed to take advantage of manufacturer-sponsored PAPs, primarily for high-cost specialty medications. AFPs work by carving out specialty medicines and then using patients’ insurance status to enroll them in a manufacturer PAP. The results are health plans and employers benefit from these services by saving money on prescriptions.

    In a recent conversation with Paydhealth’s David A. Galardi (Chief Commercial Office), he described his company’s vocation with an actual client’s circumstance:

    ‘In a large school district, an employee under a group health plan needed three costly specialty medications. Without intervention, the district would have faced nearly $650,000 in annual costs. PaydHealth stepped in, reviewed the case, identified forms of assistance the individual was eligible for, and helped secure free assistance for the employee within 72 hours. This not only preserved access to the prescribed therapy but also saved the public sector employer from bearing the high costs while ensuring the patient received the necessary treatment.’

    AFPs are a part of the healthcare ether. Paydhealth’s website puts it this way: We are ‘changing the funding of specialty healthcare to re-imagine the possibilities of bringing real savings to the purchaser of health care’ – the patient

    Specialty medications account for 51% of total pharmacy spending though they are used by less than 2% of the population. Policymakers should be looking at solutions to get the right medicine to the right patient at the right time – and at the right cost. Let’s have that public discussion so patients see greater access to the medicines and treatments they need.

    AFPs, like Paydhealth, could be part of the health care fix patients deserve – addressing real problems in the healthcare space.

    Jerry Rogers is editor at RealClearPolicy and RealClearHealth. He hosts ‘The Jerry Rogers Show’ on WBAL NewsRadio 1090/FM 101.5 and the Federal Newswire’s ‘The Business of America’. Follow him on Twitter @JerryRogersShow.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 21:45

  • India's Modi Urges Quick 'Peaceful' End To Ukraine War In Meeting With Putin
    India’s Modi Urges Quick ‘Peaceful’ End To Ukraine War In Meeting With Putin

    On the first day of the annual BRICS summit held in Kazan, Russia – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi issued a call for the war in Ukraine to be resolved peacefully and “quickly”.

    This is the message he conveyed directly Russian President Vladimir Putin upon the start of the three-day gathering. Putin hopes to present the BRICS alliance as the main alternative to Western hegemony.

    “We have been in constant touch over the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,” Modi told Putin, just after the two once again shared a warm embrace. “We believe that disputes should only be resolved peacefully. We totally support efforts to quickly restore peace and stability,” Modi emphasized. Russia looks anything but “isolated” during this week of hosting major heads of state.

    Source: ANI

    “All our efforts give priority to humanity. India is ready to provide all possible cooperation in the times to come,” the prime minister added.

    Modi had recounted upon arriving in Kazan the night prior – and as a way to highlight steady relations with Moscow despite the more than two-year long Ukraine war – that this is his second visit to Russia in just three months.

    “My two visits to Russia in the last three months reflect our close coordination and deep friendship. Our Annual Summit in Moscow in July has strengthened our cooperation in every field…In 15 years, the BRICS has created its special identity and now many countries of the world want to join it. I am looking forward to participating in the BRICS Summit tomorrow,” Modi said.

    Putin responded positively by describing that “Russian-Indian relations have the character of a particularly privileged strategic partnership and continue to actively develop.”

    Modi and Putin laugh at a joke by the Russian president…

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    Other BRICS partners are likely to repeat this call for peace and de-escalation in Ukraine. Around two dozen global leaders in the Russian city, notably including Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

    Russian state sources are hailing Russia playing host to the summit:

    By hosting BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia “shows the West that it’s not isolated” and President Vladimir Putin “is no pariah,” Time Magazine reported on Tuesday.

    According to Alicia Garcia-Herrero, a senior research fellow at the Bruegel think tank who spoke to the outlet, BRICS “expansion is a clear sign that the global balance of power is shifting.”

    Top of the agenda toward this end will be discussion of and the further advancing of a BRICS-led payment system to rival the SWIFT international payment system, which President Putin has long talked about.

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    The conflicts breaking out in the Middle East will also be a prime topic, given Israel is still vowing to strike back at Iran for the Oct.1st ballistic missile attack, and as Lebanon comes under increasing bombardment by Israeli jets.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 21:20

  • The Rise Of The Humble
    The Rise Of The Humble

    Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    I’m part of a supper club that meets monthly. It was founded at the height of the lockdowns when everyone was being forced into masks and being muscled into getting the shot. This group resisted both, despite the imposing certainty of the mandates.

    Timur Mustakimov plays on Future Stars Concert at Kaufman Music Center in Manhattan on Nov. 2, 2022. Wolfgang Lian/The Epoch Times

    All these years later, the community is still bonded. Friendships formed and lasted. The culture is one of deep questioning. Each meeting is replete with incredulity toward official pronouncement, a shared perception that elite opinion and elite institutions were simply wrong. And not just about COVID but about everything.

    It’s not a political group at all. Its central theme concerns the failure of conventional wisdom and all the ways in which legacy institutions preached error over several years. These days, as all polls have revealed, this view is widely held. Many of the most pressing trends of our time are about dislodging an old elite (in media, corporate life, government) and replacing them with people interested in new ways.

    I’ve noticed a common feature among many of the rising stars that are displacing the falling stars of the old elites. They are much more humble about what they know and what they do not know. They are happy to admit it. The days of “I am the science” and “We are your source of truth” seem to be ending. The guru scientist and soothsaying academic have fallen from their perches of influence.

    Replacing them is a new generation of thinkers who are happy to admit what they do not know. The other day, for example, Tucker Carlson said he often feels what is called imposter syndrome. This is the belief that every achievement is really just a lucky break, a sneaky feeling that we have temporarily pulled the wool over people’s eyes.

    It’s a humble admission, one we should all appreciate. It’s a common feeling among anyone commonly described as a genius. Even Elon Musk must feel this. Ironically, the person who believes that the moniker of genius is unjust is the person most likely to deserve it.

    The problem of constantly deciding whether we are great or terrible at what we do, toying with the belief that we are geniuses just before worrying that we will be exposed as frauds, is just part of life and a real sign of humility.

    A good example comes from an account of a man who competed as a pianist in the amateur Van Cliburn contest in the 1990s:

    “I haven’t felt this nervous before any recital and tell myself that I should be confident, having already made it through the previous rounds. But I can’t shake the fear that I’m a fraud who lucked into the finals while all the other finalists are pros, even if they’re called amateurs. An extra degree of scrutiny directed at me is attributable to the conspicuous nature of my profession [journalist], which is no consolation at the moment. Reverse psychology—I’m not a fraud, I’m a star—doesn’t help, either. Star, fraud—the only thing I conclude is that I should be focusing on the music.”

    That article appeared in 1999, and the passage above is the one that stood out to me. It signifies that search that all of us make to define a sense of precisely who we are based on our skill level and, in turn, what to expect from others in their treatment of us. Mostly, however, it works in the opposite direction. We extract information from what others around us say about us and infuse that sense into our self-perceptions.

    From little league baseball through one’s school years and all the way to professional life, the following happens to everyone. You do something amazing, and everyone sings your praises. But now you have a new problem: expectations are newly high for your performance. This is especially true if you have won or received a promotion or raise: Now you have to get out there and kill it every time, else you will be seen as undeserving.

    There’s an added problem to being perceived as a genius. Others will want to tear you down and revel in your fall. Envy is the most hidden, but most deeply dangerous of the deadly sins. Those who envy victims are almost always surprised because they were expecting their achievement to be followed by accolades and promotion, not resentment and nefarious plots. But the only way to avoid envy is intolerable: never be excellent.

    Elon faces this daily of course. But so do insurgent political candidates and newly popular media figures. The forces trying to tear them down are everywhere.

    In poor societies, this is the common and tragic response. It’s also a feature of declining societies in which ever more people have money, power, and influence who have done nothing to merit either. They owe their status to legacy and inertia, and cling to it against all winds of change.

    Today such entrenched elites exist in all sectors: the corporate world, government, academia, media, politics, nonprofits, and more. Everyone has encountered them. They are everywhere. There is a word to describe them: fakers.

    The number one fear of a faker is being found out, so every day is spent in scheming and plotting to prevent that. This is why fakers surround themselves with people who are willing to be complicit in the coverup of incompetence, i.e., “Yes men” whose main skill is nodding in agreement. For this reason, fakers breed other fakers and promote them to flood the zone of fakes in hopes of hiding for longer.

    They all develop what today is being called “testy” personalities which they deploy as tactics of intimidation, always with this habit of resenting anyone who questions their words and judgment. They are prickly because they have a grim truth to hide always: namely that they have not merited their status, title, power, or income, and possess a fraction of the abilities of the people over whom they rule.

    In the corporate world, they love calling staff meetings because fakers have learned the art of time-killing blather to cover up for their fundamental incompetence. They have nothing better to do so they call many and make them last as long as possible.

    Fakers loathe competence and punish it. They drip poison in people’s ears to stop the social and professional advancement of their betters. They drive out those with skill in an effort to avoid being shown up. In doing so, they are a source of quiet chaos all around them.

    There is really no cure for this problem. Once a professional is promoted beyond his or her competence—due to family connections, personal relationships, identity visuals, indulging and exploiting undeserved credit and praise, or whatever—there is no going back. The only possible solution, and it is ultimately a compassionate one, is full professional termination. This is because they cannot be dialed back lest they seethe with resentment and plot retribution.

    Of course that solution requires competent leadership in a position to make hard decisions, which is precisely what the fakers are working to prevent.

    In the credit-soaked, bloated, and credential-obsessed economic structures of the 21st century, fakers are everywhere. They demoralize competent employees, demotivate hard work and improvement, foment distrust within and without, and ultimately wreck and discredit whole institutions.

    The imposter syndrome, in contrast, is something felt by every truly competent person. To some extent, all reputations of geniuses are exaggerated. Despite the high reputations of the Wright Brothers, Alexander Graham Bell, and Eli Whitney, there is in fact an ongoing dispute about who was first in flight, who invented the telephone, and whether the cotton gin was actually improved much at all by Whitney’s machine.

    Historians of invention have yet to discover any innovations that were genuinely the product of a single mind. What we find again and again is the phenomenon of Multiple Discovery, with many people competing for the title of the first. It is for this reason that Nobel Prizes are increasingly given to teams of researchers. It seems more accurate to say that genius is in the air and perceived by many different people in different places, even if they have never had contact with each other.

    F.A. Hayek showed that the highest forms of intelligence do not live so much in individuals’ minds but in social processes and institutions that no single human mind can fully conceptualize. The result is an order that no man can accurately comprehend or describe, much less design. This is precisely the core of his defense of freedom in speech and action: we need this process to be adaptable to become ever smarter and more reflective of a multitude of intelligences that emerge from human action.

    Where does that leave us as individuals? All we can hope to do is precisely what the pianist quoted above says: “I should be focusing on the music.” That is to say, do the best we can on the task in which we are engaged. You will have moments of genius and moments of failure, sometimes home runs and sometimes strikeouts, good performances and bad. Knowing this is neither a complex nor a syndrome; it is the stuff of life.

    It is perfectly normal to worry that the plaudits one receives are not truly merited. The most successful musicians I’ve known are not the best; it’s just that they work harder to become successful. It’s the same with writers, scientists, engineers, or entrepreneurs. They are great because they focus on constant improvement.

    The “natural talents” among us rarely blossom because they don’t have to work at it. At the same time, seeming disabilities become abilities because they motivate us to overcome them.

    History will surely record that elite arrogance over the last four years has proven to be their undoing. In contrast, we might be watching the rise of a new generation of leaders in many fields who approach their craft with a different ethos: the humility to recognize one’s limits, a dedication to authenticity, and a passion for genuine excellence in the service of others. We can hope.

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 20:55

  • IRS Unveils New Federal Income Tax Brackets For 2025
    IRS Unveils New Federal Income Tax Brackets For 2025

    The IRS on Oct. 22 unveiled the new federal income tax brackets for 2025.

    As The Epoch Times’ Zachary Stieber reports, each bracket was changed, including the top one.

    Single taxpayers making more than $636,350, or couples making more than $751,600, will be subject to a 37 percent tax rate.

    That’s up from $609,350, and $731,200, respectively.

    Here are the other new brackets, with the old income threshold in parentheses:

    • 35 percent tax for singles making more than $250,525 ($243,725) and married couples making more than $501,050 ($487,450)

    • 32 percent tax for singles making more than $197,300 ($191,950) and married couples making more than $394,600 ($383,900)

    • 24 percent tax for singles making more than $103,350 ($100,525) and married couples making more than $206,700 $201,050()

    • 22 percent tax for singles with incomes over $48,475 ($47,150) and married couples making more than $96,950 ($94,300)

    • 12 percent tax for singles with incomes over $11,925 ($11,600) and married couples making more than $23,850 ($23,200)

    • 10 percent tax for singles with incomes of $11,925 or less ($11,600 or less) and married couples making $23,850 or less ($23,200 or less)

    The IRS also said it is increasing the standard deduction for individuals by $400 to $15,000, and for married couples by $800 to $30,000.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 20:30

  • Prostate Cancer: Over-Testing And Over-Treatment
    Prostate Cancer: Over-Testing And Over-Treatment

    Authored by Bruce Davidson via The Brownstone Institute,

    The excessive medical response to the Covid pandemic made one thing abundantly clear: Medical consumers really ought to do their own research into the health issues that impact them. Furthermore, it is no longer enough simply to seek out a “second opinion” or even a “third opinion” from doctors. They may well all be misinformed or biased. Furthermore, this problem appears to predate the Covid phenomenon.

    A striking example of that can be found in the recent history of prostate cancer testing and treatment, which, for personal reasons, has become a subject of interest to me. In many ways, it strongly resembles the Covid calamity, where misuse of the PCR test resulted in harming the supposedly Covid-infected with destructive treatments.

    Two excellent books on the subject illuminate the issues involved in prostate cancer. One is Invasion of the Prostate Snatchers by Dr. Mark Scholz and Ralph Blum. Dr. Scholtz is executive director of the Prostate Cancer Research Institute in California. The other is The Great Prostate Hoax by Richard Ablin and Ronald Piana. Richard Ablin is a pathologist who invented the PSA test but has become a vociferous critic of its widespread use as a diagnostic tool for prostate cancer.

    Mandatory yearly PSA testing at many institutions opened up a gold mine for urologists, who were able to perform lucrative biopsies and prostatectomies on patients who had PSA test numbers above a certain level. However, Ablin has insisted that “routine PSA screening does far more harm to men than good.” Moreover, he maintains that the medical people involved in prostate screening and treatment represent “a self-perpetuating industry that has maimed millions of American men.”

    Even during approval hearings for the PSA test, the FDA was well aware of the problems and dangers. For one thing, the test has a 78% false positive rate. An elevated PSA level can be caused by various factors besides cancer, so it is not really a test for prostate cancer. Moreover, a PSA test score can spur frightened men into getting unnecessary biopsies and harmful surgical procedures.

    One person who understood the potential dangers of the test well was the chairman of the FDA’s committee, Dr. Harold Markovitz, who decided whether to approve it. He declared, “I’m afraid of this test. If it is approved, it comes out with the imprimatur of the committee…as pointed out, you can’t wash your hands of guilt. . .all this does is threaten a whole lot of men with prostate biopsy…it’s dangerous.”

    In the end, the committee did not give unqualified approval to the PSA test but only approved it “with conditions.”

    However, subsequently, the conditions were ignored.

    Nevertheless, the PSA test became celebrated as the route to salvation from prostate cancer. The Postal Service even circulated a stamp promoting yearly PSA tests in 1999. Quite a few people became wealthy and well-known at the Hybritech company, thanks to the Tandem-R PSA test, their most lucrative product.

    In those days, the corrupting influence of the pharmaceutical companies on the medical device and drug approval process was already apparent. In an editorial for the Journal of the American Medical Association (quoted in Albin and Piana’s book), Dr. Marcia Angell wrote, “The pharmaceutical industry has gained unprecedented control over the evaluation of its products…there’s mounting evidence that they skew the research they sponsor to make their drugs look better and safer.” She also authored the book The Truth About the Drug Companies: How They Deceive Us and What to Do About It.

    A cancer diagnosis often causes great anxiety, but in actuality, prostate cancer develops very slowly compared to other cancers and does not often pose an imminent threat to life. A chart featured in Scholz and Blum’s book compares the average length of life of people whose cancer returns after surgery. In the case of colon cancer, they live on average two more years, but prostate cancer patients live another 18.5 years.

    In the overwhelming majority of cases, prostate cancer patients do not die from it but rather from something else, whether they are treated for it or not. In a 2023 article about this issue titled “To Treat or Not to Treat,” the author reports the results of a 15-year study of prostate cancer patients in the New England Journal of Medicine. Only 3% of the men in the study died of prostate cancer, and getting radiation or surgery for it did not seem to offer much statistical benefit over “active surveillance.”

    Dr. Scholz confirms this, writing that “studies indicate that these treatments [radiation and surgery] reduce mortality in men with Low and Intermediate-Risk disease by only 1% to 2% and by less than 10% in men with High-Risk disease.”

    Nowadays prostate surgery is a dangerous treatment choice, but it is still widely recommended by doctors, especially in Japan. Sadly, it also seems to be unnecessary. One study cited in Ablin and Piana’s book concluded that “PSA mass screening resulted in a huge increase in the number of radical prostatectomies. There is little evidence for improved survival outcomes in the recent years…”

    However, a number of urologists urge their patients not to wait to get prostate surgery, threatening them with imminent death if they do not. Ralph Blum, a prostate cancer patient, was told by one urologist, “Without surgery you’ll be dead in two years.” Many will recall that similar death threats were also a common feature of Covid mRNA-injection promotion.

    Weighing against prostate surgery are various risks, including death and long-term impairment, since it is a very difficult procedure, even with newer robotic technology. According to Dr. Scholz, about 1 in 600 prostate surgeries result in the death of the patient. Much higher percentages suffer from incontinence (15% to 20%) and impotence after surgery. The psychological impact of these side effects is not a minor problem for many men.

    In light of the significant risks and little proven benefit of treatment, Dr. Scholz censures “the urology world’s persistent overtreatment mindset.” Clearly, excessive PSA screening led to inflicting unnecessary suffering on many men. More recently, the Covid phenomenon has been an even more dramatic case of medical overkill.

    Ablin and Piana’s book makes an observation that also sheds a harsh light on the Covid medical response: “Isn’t cutting edge innovation that brings new medical technology to the market a good thing for health-care consumers? The answer is yes, but only if new technologies entering the market have proven benefit over the ones they replace.”

    That last point especially applies to Japan right now, where people are being urged to receive the next-generation mRNA innovation–the self-amplifying mRNA Covid vaccine. Thankfully, a number seem to be resisting this time.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 20:05

  • US Insider Selling Soars To 3 Year High As China Buybacks Surge To Record
    US Insider Selling Soars To 3 Year High As China Buybacks Surge To Record

    China may have failed once again to stabilize its moribund housing market and flagging economy, with its latest superficial attempt to stimulate consumer demand by releasing another modest trickle of overdue but insufficient monetary and fiscal stimulus measures, but it is certainly not giving up on hopes to prop up the market at almost any cost.

    Following relentless prodding from the central government, share buybacks on mainland China’s biggest exchanges have soared to a record high this year as Beijing pushes for companies to return cash to shareholders as part of its efforts to revive a flagging stock market.

    According to the FT, there have been Rmb235bn ($33bn) in buybacks across mainland-listed shares so far in 2024, more than double last year’s total and far surpassing the previous record of Rmb133bn in 2022, according to financial data provider Wind.

    The scramble to repurchase shares comes as China’s government unleashes its biggest round of economic stimulus since the Covid-19 pandemic, which however has again been seen as insufficient by the market. Beijing is keen to boost investor sentiment, underscoring growing urgency to restore confidence in an economy hit hard by a property sector crisis and weak consumer demand. The government is stepping up efforts to hit its year-end GDP growth target of 5%.

    While the benchmark CSI 300 index had risen as much as 20% over the past month amid Beijing’s bid to breathe new life into its equity market after years of dismal performance, it has since given up much of the gains as expectations of even more stimulus measures did not materialize.

    Goldman’s China strategist Kinger Lau argued that buybacks made “economic sense” for companies with cash to spare given how far Chinese share prices had fallen, and added that such a move could also bolster the government’s coffers when it held big stakes in companies.

    The surge in buybacks began even before the Chinese authorities announced Rmb300bn in central bank loans to fund share repurchases last week; that news however will surely supercharge the buybacks even more.

    More than 20 Chinese companies, including state oil group Sinopec, have announced share buyback plans exceeding Rmb10bn since the announcement of the central bank scheme on Friday, according to a Financial Times calculation based on exchange filings.

    Jason Bedford, a China banking analyst formerly at UBS and asset manager Bridgewater, said Beijing was seeking an equity rally by encouraging buybacks. “Clearly, the government has been pushing this throughout the year,” he said.

    Kin Chan, chief investment officer at Argyle Street Management in Hong Kong, said that China was following “a Japanese approach, which is telling companies to do share buybacks”.

    “As a stock market player, this is wonderful, but does this solve the economic problem? I have no idea,” he said.

    Meanwhile, as China is coming up with feat of financial engineering to prop up its flagging stocks in hopes of creating a virtuous wealth effect cycle, in the US insiders are doing just the opposite.

    At a time when stocks have had no shortage of buyers, as even formerly bearish hedge funds capitulate and unleash the biggest buying spree of stocks since 2021, joining retail investors and record US buybacks, all helping propel US stocks to a sixth straight up week, US company insiders are dumping in near record amounts.

    As Bloomberg notes, while business leaders were busy last week offering reassuring earnings guidance, underneath the rosy outlook was a different trend: They were selling stock… which has traditionally been a major red flag as these are the people who best know the inner workings of the companies they run.

    As shown below, a gauge of insider sentiment, one that tallies the number of sellers versus buyers, is poised to hit the highest monthly reading in more than three years, data compiled by the Washington Service show.

    The figures chime with various high-profile sales that have made headlines recently, including Warren Buffett’s unloading of Apple and Bank of America stock, as well as sales by Nvidia insiders, including CEO Jensen Huang.

    Granted, some of the exits no doubt have nothing to do with the business outlook, driven instead by the need for cash to buy a house or pay for kids’ tuition. And the stock rally has been mostly invulnerable for months amid Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and generally good tidings on the economy and earnings.

    Still, the last time the insider indicator shot up, in July, it was a precursor to market pain, with the S&P 500 subsequently falling 8%.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 19:40

  • Michigan Voter Rolls Claim 8.4M Voters, When There Are Less Than 8M Eligible Residents
    Michigan Voter Rolls Claim 8.4M Voters, When There Are Less Than 8M Eligible Residents

    Authored by Eric Lendrum via American Greatness,

    The voter rolls in Michigan claim that there are 8.4 million people registered to vote in the crucial swing state, even though the state’s total population is almost half a million less than that.

    According to the Daily Wire, the state of Michigan had previously been sued by the Republican National Committee (RNC) over the extremely inflated voter rolls, and other concerns regarding election integrity.

    But Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D-Mich.) dismissed such concerns in a statement on Wednesday, claiming with no evidence that these lawsuits “lay the groundwork to overturn the results of the election if they don’t like them.”

    “The RNC and its members are concerned that Defendants’ failure to comply with the NVRA’s voter-list maintenance obligations undermines the integrity of elections by increasing the opportunity for ineligible voters or voters intent on fraud to cast ballots,” the RNC’s lawsuit states.

    A spokeswoman for Benson’s office, Angela Benander, even admitted that there are at least 606,800 inactive voters currently on the rolls, but they will not be purged until 2027. Voters who become ineligible include those who have moved to another state, those who have mail returned from their address as “undeliverable,” and voters who do not vote in two or more consecutive federal elections.

    “The RNC relies on registration lists to estimate voter turnout, which informs the number of staff the RNC needs in a given jurisdiction, the number of volunteers needed to contact voters, and how much the RNC will spend on paid voter contacts,” the RNC’s lawsuit continued.

    “If voter registration lists include names of voters who should no longer be on the list, the RNC may spend more resources on mailers, knocking on doors, and otherwise trying to contact voters, or it may misallocate its scarce resources among different jurisdictions.”

    In total, 78 of Michigan’s 83 counties appear to have more registered voters than residents of voting age.

    The largest county in the state, Wayne County – where the city of Detroit is located – has only 1.3 million residents of voting age, but 1.4 million registered voters, according to data from the U.S. Census.

    Another example is Genessee County, with 351,000 registered voters but less than 300,000 residents.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 19:15

  • Polaris Warns "Challenging Retail Demand" For ATVs & Jetskis
    Polaris Warns “Challenging Retail Demand” For ATVs & Jetskis

    Polaris shares fell in premarket trading after the company, known for selling ATVs, UTVs, jet skis, and snowmobiles, posted disappointing third-quarter earnings. The company also cut its full-year earnings per share and sales forecast, citing sagging demand for outdoor vehicles due to elevated interest rates. 

    “As consumer confidence and retail demand remain challenging, we have maintained our focus on managing dealer inventory and delivering better operational efficiency,” Polaris CEO Mike Speetzen wrote in a press release. 

    Polaris reported sales of $1.72 billion, down 23% YoY, missing the Bloomberg estimate of $1.77 billion. Sales were down modestly in off-road vehicles, motorcycles, and pontoons. 

    Here’s a snapshot of third-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):  

    • Sales $1.72 billion, -23% y/y, estimate $1.77 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

    • Off Road sales $1.40 billion, -24% y/y, estimate $1.41 billion

    • On Road sales $236.5 million, -13% y/y, estimate $241.6 million

    • Marine sales $85.9 million, -36% y/y, estimate $133.7 million

    • Gross profit margin 20.6% vs. 22.6% y/y, estimate 21%

    • Cash and cash equivalents $291.3 million, -1.4% y/y, estimate $337.8 millio

    • Adjusted EPS from continuing operations 73c, estimate 89c

    Visualizing Polaris’ quarterly revenues… The cheap money era of Covid, plus folks moving out of cities to resort towns and or just rural America, sparked a massive demand for outdoor vehicles. As the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy, which sent interest rates to the moon, affordability for these outdoor grown-up toys worsened, thus curbing demand.

    As a result of a challenging market, one in which high interest rates have curbed consumer spending on jetskis, RZRs, and snowmobiles, Polaris had to lower its full-year earnings per share and sales guidance:

    • Sees adjusted EPS -65%, saw -56% to -62%

    • Sees sales -20%, saw -17% to -20%

    Polaris explained more about its reasoning behind lowering its 2024 business outlook:

    The company updated its 2024 sales outlook to be down approximately 20 percent relative to 2023 versus its previous outlook of down 17 to 20 percent relative to 2023. The company now expects adjusted diluted EPS attributed to Polaris Inc. common shareholders to be down approximately 65 percent relative to 2023 versus the prior outlook of down 56 to 62 percent.

    In markets, Polaris shares in New York are down 7%. On the year, shares are down 15% (as of Monday’s close). Shares are hovering at levels last seen since right before the Covid crash. 

    Also, watch MasterCraft Boat, MarineMax, Camping World, Brunswick, and Malibu Boats. 

    Polaris is a proxy of consumer health. Certainly, high interest rates and elevated inflation have crimped demand for ATVs, UTVs, and jet skis. The broad theme here is that a consumer slowdown continues to worsen. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 18:50

  • 'Central Park Five' Sue Trump Over Debate Remarks
    ‘Central Park Five’ Sue Trump Over Debate Remarks

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

    Five men cleared of rape charges sued former President Donald Trump on Oct. 21, arguing he defamed them with comments he made at a recent presidential debate.

    Trump said during the September debate with Vice President Kamala Harris that the so-called Central Park Five “pled guilty” and that they “badly hurt a person” and “killed a person, ultimately.”

    The new suit, filed in federal court in Pennsylvania, states that those remarks are defamatory because the five men were never accused of nor convicted of killing anyone.

    The plaintiffs say Trump made the comments negligently, either with the knowledge that they were false or with reckless disregard as to their falsity.

    “Defendant Trump’s conduct at the September 10 debate was extreme and outrageous, and it was intended to cause severe emotional distress to Plaintiffs,” the suit states.

    Juries in 1990 convicted Yusef Salaam, Raymond Santana, Kevin Richardson, Antron Brown, and Korey Wise of rape and other charges. They had pleaded not guilty, after they admitted to participating in a night of criminal activity, including assault and robbery, in Central Park on April 19, 1989.

    Some of the then-teenagers said they had assaulted or sexually touched a jogger Trisha Meili and implicated others in raping her.

    The five, two weeks after their confessions, had recanted their statements, saying that they were allegedly coerced by police into giving false confessions in the case.

    Matias Reyes, a convicted rapist, a decade later confessed to raping Meili on the evening of April 19.

    Investigators confirmed the details offered by Reyes.

    Prosecutors told a state court the convictions against the five males should be vacated, because their confessions linking the five to related crimes were obtained under duress after hours of questioning and without the presence of their guardians or legal counsel.

    A judge in 2002 vacated the five men’s convictions based on the newly discovered evidence.

    A New York Police Department report later concluded that while DNA and other evidence supported Reyes’s story, there was “nothing but his uncorroborated word that he did so alone.” It said that the men “more likely than not” took part in Reyes’s assault of Meili.

    “The new DNA evidence … does not assist in determining whether the defendants were present during the attack on the jogger,” it said.

    Trump, who paid for an advertisement in 1989 calling for the five to be put to death, was responding during the debate after Harris highlighted his involvement with the case.

    “This is the same individual who took out a full-page ad in The New York Times calling for the execution of five young Black and Latino boys who were innocent, the Central Park Five,” she said.

    Trump then offered his response and said that Harris “has to stretch back years, 40, 50 years ago because there’s nothing now.”

    In 2019, when asked if he would apologize to the five men, Trump told reporters that “They admitted their guilt.”

    Steven Cheung, a spokesman for Trump’s campaign, told news outlets that the filing “is just another frivolous election interference lawsuit filed by desperate left-wing activists in an attempt to distract the American people from Kamala Harris’s dangerously liberal agenda and failing campaign.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 18:25

  • McWeaponized: CDC Unveils E.coli Outbreak In Quarter-Pounders, Day After Trump Photo-Op
    McWeaponized: CDC Unveils E.coli Outbreak In Quarter-Pounders, Day After Trump Photo-Op

    There’s no such thing as coincidence in Washington…

    A day after former President Trump ventured into a McDonalds during a campaign stop, cooked some fries, and handed out some food to more-than-happy customers in a photo-op that went very viral (in a good way), the CDC issued a statement announcing an E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounders has left one person dead and caused 10 hospitalizations.

    There are 49 cases across 10 states, with most illneses in Colorado and Nebraska (not where president Trump was)…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “This is a fast-moving outbreak investigation. Most sick people are reporting eating Quarter Pounder hamburgers from McDonald’s and investigators are working quickly to confirm which food ingredient is contaminated,” the CDC’s alert said.

    “McDonald’s has pulled ingredients for these burgers, and they won’t be available for sale in some states,” the CDC said.

    “McDonald’s reported to CDC that it has stopped using fresh slivered onions and quarter pound beef patties in several states,” the CDC said.

    The announcement of the outbreak sent MCD shares down 10% in the after-market (before bouncing back a little)…

    The timing of the sudden share-price-crushing contagion comes after McDonald’s corporate office dared to actually accept and welcome ‘hitler, stalin, and mussolini’ into their fast-food joint.

    In an email to employees that was seen by The Epoch Times, the company said that its “brand has been a fixture of conversation this election cycle” and that “we’ve not sought this” but is a “testament to how much McDonald’s resonates with so many Americans.”

    “McDonald’s does not endorse candidates for elected office and that remains true in this race for the next President,” McDonald’s said in the statement, dated Oct. 21. “We are not red or blue—we are golden.”

    The company said that Trump’s visit to a Pennsylvania McDonald’s location was handled locally by a franchise operator.

    “Upon learning of the former President’s request, we approached it through the lens of one of our core values: we open our doors to everyone,” the company said.

    And, in case you thought we over-reached here, this is how the New York Times decide to cover this Trump photo-op…

    Yes, that is right – they allegedly asked MCD employees if Trump did a good job!?

    When it was time to bag the order, he asked a woman at the drive-through what they did when a customer wanted more salt.

    “I love salt,” he said, as he shook some onto golden potatoes.

    Then, after spilling some, he paused to throw some over his shoulder in a nod to superstition, a seconds-long gesture that would have most likely been unappreciated by efficiency-loving managers had Mr. Trump been any other employee.

    And remember, Kamala worked there too… according to a friend…

    Finally, nothing would shock us more than if Jack Smith stepped in to probe Trump’s cleanliness…

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    McWeaponized!!

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 18:00

  • Mexico Escalates Its War On Obesity By Declaring National Ban On Junk Food Sales In Schools
    Mexico Escalates Its War On Obesity By Declaring National Ban On Junk Food Sales In Schools

    Authored by Nick Corbishley via Naked Capitalism,

    Mexico is the leading consumer of soft drinks in the world with an average consumption of 163 litres per person per year – 40% more than the US in second place. Child and adult obesity are off the charts. 

    Yesterday (Oct. 21), while Donald Trump was causing a stir by donning a McDonald’s uniform for the cameras and frying some fries, Mexico’s new Secretary of Public Education, Mario Delgado, announced the launch of a new nationwide program that is unlikely to be replicated north of the border any time soon. The goal of the program, titled “Vida Saludable” (Healthy Life), is to improve the nutrition and overall health of Mexican school children amid an epidemic of child obesity and diabetes.

    The program, enacted by the now-former AMLO administration on September 29, has four main pillars: prevent the sale of ultra-processed food and sugary drinks in school settings; promote the consumption of natural drinking water through the provision of water fountains; train educators in healthy nutrition; and promote sports and physical activity. The Claudia Sheinbaum government, still in its maiden month in office, has said it will also train the heads of school cooperatives to sell fruits, vegetables and seasonal foods.

    A Six-Month Deadline

    “Vida Saludable” will become mandatory for all state schools at all levels of the national education system on March 29. Schools will have just six months to end all sales of foods and drinks that have at least one health warning label from their snack stands, or their administrators could face steep fines.

    Of course, many children bring food from home, but the government says it has no intention of sanctioning parents who put junk food in their children’s lunchboxes. Instead, it will focus on explaining the harmful effects of these foods and the importance of eating a balanced diet.

    Implementing “Vida Saludable” is likely to be difficult, however. At most of Mexico’s 255,000 public schools, free drinking water is not available to students. Since 2020, only 4% of them have managed to install drinking fountains. There are also doubts about how the government will enforce the ban on the pavements outside schools, where vendors set up stalls of goods to sell to kids at breaktime. This being Mexico, one can expect a lively black market in comida chattara to spring up in many schools. Enterprising students will no doubt get rich.

    Nonetheless, drastic steps are necessary to combat Mexico’s soaring levels of child obesity and diabetes. An estimated 5.7 Mexican million children between the ages of 5 and 11 and 10.4 million adolescents between the ages of 12 and 19 are overweight or obese. In addition, an estimated 7 out of 10 schoolchildren and 5 out of 10 adolescents are physically inactive, which further aggravates the country’s public health crisis.

    Mexico’s secretary of education blames these trends on the “high consumption of sugars”, the lack of physical activity and the food policies of previous governments, driven primarily by the profit-maximising needs of the food industry:

    “In the neoliberal era they were not concerned about this situation — on the contrary, the sale of these products was promoted and there were even campaigns against hunger promoted by the companies that produce these junk foods. The neoliberal model turned rights such as education, health and food into merchandise.”

    The Role of NAFTA

    In Mexico, obesity reached epidemic proportions after it joined NAFTA with the United States and Canada in the early 1990s, making processed food more easily available. As the New York Times reported in a 2017 investigation, the commercial opening of North America turbocharged the growth of convenience stores and US-owned fast food restaurants on Mexican soil. In addition, trade liberalisation allowed “cheap corn, meat, high-fructose corn syrup, and processed foods” from the United States to flood into Mexico.

    Diets quickly changed as many people, particularly those on lower incomes, replaced largely healthy traditional staples (corn tortilla, frijoles, Jamaica Water…) with highly processed alternatives (hotdogs, nuggets, sodas…). Granted, prior to NAFTA Mexico was already home to a burgeoning junk food industry, but what came after was on a whole different scale.

    Mexico is now the leading consumer of soft drinks in the world with an average consumption of 163 litres per person per year — 40% more than the US in second place, with 118 litres, according to a 2022 study from the University of Yale. Incredibly, there is one state in the country that consumes Coca Cola in per-capita volumes five times higher than the national average and 32 times higher than the global average: Chiapas, Mexico’s poorest state.

    “It is the epicentre of the epidemic of soft drink consumption,” Dr. Marcos Arana, a researcher at the Salvador Zubirán National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition, told BBC Mundo:

    Soft drinks are already an essential part of daily life in this state, especially in the Los Altos region of Chiapas, where the majority of its population is indigenous and rural…

    “The availability and advertising of something so cheap is so great and omnipresent in Chiapas in the face of vulnerable populations that they have created an addiction that is seen as a necessity,” Arana says.

    “Residents told me that before the road to Tenejapa arrived, there was no diabetes or cardiovascular problems there. That all began when the road arrived in town and the soft drinks, the chips…”, says Jaime Page Pliego, anthropologist and co-author of the study.

    Local organizations such as the Centre for Training in Ecology and Health for Peasants (CCESC), which Arana directs, point to the “aggressive” commercial practices of soft drink companies and the easy accessibility of their products in the area as the main drivers of this excessive consumption.

    “Coca-Cola is the most available product in Los Altos, you have to walk the farther to buy tortillas or anything else. The number of points of sale is excessive, without any control, and with prices reduced by up to 30%,” says Arana.

    As sugar consumption in Mexico has soared, waistlines have exploded. In the past 20 years the number of obese and overweight people has tripled, with a staggering 75% of the population and 35% of the child population now overweight. In addition to obesity, the change in diet has contributed to diabetes becoming the second leading cause of death, after heart disease and ahead of cancer. In 2016, a state of epidemiological emergency was declared in the country due to the high rates of obesity and diabetes.

    Food Labelling, Bans on Cartoon Food Packaging…

    “Vida Saludable” is not the first step Mexico’s government has taken to try to improve Mexicans’ food habits. In October 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the AMLO government passed one of the strictest food labelling laws on the planet. From that date, all soft drinks cans and bottles, bags of chips and other processed food packages must bear black octagonal labels warning of “EXCESS SUGAR”, “EXCESS CALORIES”, “EXCESS SODIUM”  or “EXCESS TRANS FATS” — all in big bold letters that are impossible to miss.

    Today, more than half of Mexican food and beverage products have a nutritional warning label — more than any other country in Latin America. The government also banned cartoon food packaging aimed at children.

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    Big Food lobbies tried to block both of these measures, of course — just as they will no doubt try to block “Vida Saludable”. The Interamerican Association for the Protection of Intellectual Property and the Mexican Association for the Protection of Intellectual Property complained that food labelling was unconstitutional and violated the provisions that Mexico had signed at the international level such as the North American Free Trade Agreement — a tactic that has apparently been used in other jurisdictions where food labelling laws have been passed.

    For almost four years the lawsuits dragged on. Of the more than 100 injunctions filed by companies like Coca-Cola Femsa, PepsiCo, Group Bimbo, Hershey’s, Santa Clara, Herdez, Alimentos del Fuerte, Nutrisa and McCormick, three reached the second chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation (SCJN), which, to its credit, ruled – by unanimous vote – that front-of-pack labelling for food and non-alcoholic beverages is a valid measure that protects people’s health and consumers’ right to information.

    The first country in Latin America to really begin tackling the public’s addiction to junk food, sugary drinks and ultra processed foods was Chile. In 2016, it passed a strict food labelling law. Like Mexico, it has also also limited cartoon food packaging, prevented schools from selling unhealthy foods, restricted TV adverts, and banned promotional toys. Over the next two years, sugary drink sales in Chile fell by 23%. According to one study, the labels reduced the likelihood of people choosing sugary breakfast cereals by 11% and sugary juices by almost 24%.

    As I wrote in 2020 for WOLF STREET, it was one of the worst possible nightmares for the junk food industry. The fact that Chile, with its population of around 20 million people, was doing it was bad enough. The prospect of something similar transpiring in Mexico, a country with a population almost seven times larger than Chile and that consumes more processed food than any other country in Latin America and more soda on a per-capita basis than any country on the planet, unnerved global food and beverage companies:

    The United States, EU, Canada and Switzerland, home to some of the world’s biggest food companies, tried to pause or derail the new legislation. But to no avail. The arrival of Covid-19, which has proven to be particularly lethal to people with three comorbidities — obesity, diabetes, and hypertension — has strengthened the government’s case and resolve.

    The [government’s labelling laws] have raised concerns that [it] is overstepping its bounds. The business lobby group Coparmex said that banning the sale of junk food and sugary drinks to minors represents a frontal attack on commercial freedom and freedom of choice. It will also have serious economic consequences for businesses in the retail sector. But those consequences are dwarfed by the economic and health impact of widespread obesity.

    Since 2020, many other countries in Latin America have introduced strict front-of-package food labelling laws, including Brazil, Argentina, Peru and Colombia. According to the Mexican online news website Sin Embargo, the labelling legislation in Mexico has had two main visible effects: the first is the reformulation of products by companies such as Bimbo, Nestlé and Kellogg’s, in an attempt to lower the concentration of ingredients that have excess sugar, fat or sodium. The second is the testimonials of consumers who claim to have reduced their consumption of products that bear health warnings on their packaging.

    A study published in June in the International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity suggests that the policy appears to be bearing fruit (pun intended). The study’s authors asked people aged 14 or over to self-report any perceived changes in their shopping habits a year after the food labelling law came into effect. More than a third of young people and almost half of adults said the labelling system had led them to reduce their purchase of various unhealthy foods. In addition, adults who reported higher water intake and lower consumption of sugary drinks said the main reason for this decision was food labelling.

    Is it any surprise that the junk food industry spent years furiously lobbying in Mexico’s Congress to block the introduction of strict and clear front-of-package food labels, and once they were finally introduced spent another four years trying to get them overturned? The lobbies will no doubt try to do the same with Mexico’s “Vida Saludable” program, just as the US’ corn and GMO lobbies are using ISDS to try to prevent Mexico from banning the use of GMO corn for direct human consumption. It is no easy task for a country to mend its eating ways these days, especially if its direct neighbour is the US of A.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 17:40

  • WTI Holds Gains After API Reports Crude Build, Product Draws
    WTI Holds Gains After API Reports Crude Build, Product Draws

    Oil prices rallied for a second straight day, erasing some of last week’s ugly losses, with prices supported by some upbeat prospects for Chinese demand and ongoing concerns that the Middle Eastern conflict will threaten crude flows from the region.

    “We’re seeing a constant push-pull between expectations of a cease-fire — which would unwind the geopolitical risk premium — and concerns over potential escalation,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group.

    “This environment remains highly volatile, with traders operating under low risk thresholds, contributing to significant price swings.”

    While hurricane-related effects are likely still impacting the overall data, traders are looking for any signs of real demand picking up…

    API

    • Crude +1.64mm (+800k exp)

    • Cushing -216k

    • Gasoline -2.02mm (-1.3mm exp)

    • Distillates -1.48mm (-1.6mm exp)

    While crude stocks rose (more than expected), products saw sizable drawdowns and the Cushing hub saw a return to drawdowns…

    Source: Bloomberg

    WTI was trading around $71.50 ahead of the API print and limped lower after…

    Crude has been buffeted this month – with Brent fluctuating in a range of more than $11 – as the war in the Middle East raises the potential for disruptions to supplies.

    “Assuming no supply disruptions in the Middle East, the oil balance looks increasingly comfortable through 2025,” ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson wrote in a note.

    “With the market returning to a sizable surplus, we should at least see the front end of the curve moving into contango,” they said, referring to the market structure which indicates oversupply.

    At the same time, top importer China has moved to support growth with stimulus, but investors remain wary that the global oil market may swing to a surplus in the coming quarters.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 17:20

  • Record High Gold Price Signals "Fragmenting Global System"; El-Erian Warns
    Record High Gold Price Signals “Fragmenting Global System”; El-Erian Warns

    Authored by Mohammed El-Erian

    Something strange has happened to the price of gold over the past year.

    In setting one record level after the other, it seems to have decoupled from its traditional historical influencers, such as interest rates, inflation and the dollar. Moreover, the consistency of its rise stands in contrast to fluctuations in pivotal geopolitical situations.

    Gold’s “all-weather” characteristic signals something that goes beyond economics, politics and higher-frequency geopolitical developments. It captures an increasingly persistent behavioural trend among China and “middle power” countries, as well as others. And it is a trend that the west should be paying greater attention to.

    Over the past 12 months, the price of an ounce of gold on international markets has increased from $1,947 to $2,715, a gain of almost 40 per cent.

    Interestingly, this march up in price has been relatively linear, with any pullback attracting more buyers.

    It has occurred despite some wild swings in expected policy rates, a wide fluctuation band for benchmark US yields, falling inflation and currency volatility.

    Some may be tempted to dismiss gold’s performance as part of a more general increase in asset prices that, for example, has seen the US S&P index gain about 35 per cent in the past 12 months.

    Yet that correlation itself is unusual. Others will attribute it to the risk of military conflicts that have seen so many innocent civilians lose their lives and livelihoods, together with massive destruction of infrastructure. Yet the price journey suggests that there may well be a lot more going on.

    Consistent foreign central bank purchases have been an important driver of gold’s strength. Such buying seems not just related to the desire of many to gradually diversify their reserve holdings away from significant dollar dominance despite America’s “economic exceptionalism”. There is also interest in exploring possible alternatives to the dollar-based payments system that has been at the core of the international architecture for some 80 years.

    Ask why this is happening and you will normally get an answer that mentions a general loss in confidence in America’s management of the global order and two specific developments.

    You will hear about America’s weaponisation of trade tariffs and investment sanctions, together with its reduced interest in the rule-based, co-operative multilateral system that it played a pivotal role in designing 80 years ago.

    You will also hear about Russia’s ability to continue to trade and grow its economy despite some of the country’s banks being ejected in 2022 from Swift, the international system that governs the vast majority of cross-border payments. It has done this by creating a clunky trade and payments alternative system that involves a handful of other countries. While inefficient and costly, this allowed Russia to bypass the dollar and maintain a core set of international economic and financial relations.

    Then there is the aspect related to the conflict in the Middle East where the US is viewed by many as an inconsistent backer of both fundamental human rights and the application of international law.

    This perception has been amplified by how the US has shielded its main ally from a response to actions widely condemned in the international community.

    What is at stake here is not just the erosion of the dollar’s dominant role but also a gradual change in the operation of the global system.

    No other currency or payment system is able and willing to displace the dollar at the core of the system and there is a practical limit to reserve diversification. But an increasing number of little pipes are being built to go around this core; and a growing number of countries are interested and increasingly involved.

    What has been happening to the gold price is not just unusual in terms of traditional economic and financial influences.

    It also goes beyond strict geopolitical influences to capture a broader phenomenon which is building secular momentum.

    As it develops deeper roots, this risks materially fragmenting the global system and eroding the international influence of the dollar and the US financial system. That would have an impact on the US’s ability to inform and influence outcomes, and undermine its national security.

    It is a phenomenon that western governments should pay more attention to. And it is one where there is still time to course-correct, though not as much as some would hope.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 17:00

  • Xi, Putin Hail Ties As Advancing 'Fair World Order' Amid 'Chaos' Sown By Western Hegemony
    Xi, Putin Hail Ties As Advancing ‘Fair World Order’ Amid ‘Chaos’ Sown By Western Hegemony

    Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have discussed the Ukraine war and other global issues at a meeting on the sidelines of the 16th annual BRICS Summit being held in the Russian city of Kaza, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has confirmed. Peskov hailed the bilateral meeting as “very open” and “constructive”.

    Tuesday marked the third time Putin and Xi have met face-to-face this year. But this is perhaps the most symbolic, as the BRICS forum is the biggest which presents an alternative to a Western-led world order. This was precisely a theme of Putin’s opening remarks in the Xi meeting: “Russian-Chinese cooperation in global affairs is one of the main stabilizing factors on the world stage,” he said.

    He then presented that close Moscow-Beijing ties represents the ideal of “a fair world order”—which has been a theme of Beijing’s as well of late when commenting on the imbalance of ‘Western hegemony’.

    “We intend to further increase coordination at all multilateral platforms in order to ensure global security and a fair world order,” Putin said.

    Xi introduced his own statements to Putin by describing that “in the context of a tectonic transformation unprecedented in centuries, the international situation is undergoing serious changes and upheavals.” He hailed positive Russia ties in a “chaotic” world.

    “But this cannot shake my conviction… in the inviolability of the deep centuries-old friendship between our countries and the inviolability of the sense of duty of China and Russia as great powers,” Xi added, based on the Kremlin transcript.

    The Chinese president said the two “explored a correct way for neighboring major powers to coexist without forming alliances, engaging in confrontation or targeting third parties” – Xinhua later added of the exchange, in what seemed an indirect swipe at NATO.

    Various Western officials and media reports have sought to downplay or even mock BRICS, but journalist Glenn Greenwald explained the following Tuesday, writing on X: “There’s Western skepticism and even mockery that this huge confederation of countries — united over perceived abuses of US/EU sanctions — could create a non-dollar system.” He continued…

    While many people in the West believe that Russia/Putin are “isolated” – because their media tells them that — two dozen world leaders are in Russia now for a 3-day BRICS conference. BRICS itself includes the two most-populous countries and 4 of the top 10 most populous.

    Beyond the founding 5 (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), it expanded to 5 more (including key US “partners” Egypt, UAE and maybe Saudi). They “account for 45% of the global population” and 28% of global economy. Key goal: a financial system independent of US dollar.

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    Greenwald also noted that “these countries aren’t sending emissaries or diplomats. They’re sending their top leaders. Brazil’s President Lula was long scheduled to attend, but the 78-year-old fell in the bathroom and sustained a serious head injury this week, so he couldn’t go.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 16:40

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Oct 22

Today’s News 22nd October 2024

  • NATO's Response To Russian Attack On The Baltics Could Take Days And Devastate Lithuania, War Simulation Shows
    NATO’s Response To Russian Attack On The Baltics Could Take Days And Devastate Lithuania, War Simulation Shows

    Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

    A recent war simulation reported by the German newspaper Bild has modeled the potential fallout from a Russian attack on NATO’s eastern flank, specifically targeting the Baltic states.

    The simulation, which explores the implications of such a conflict, highlights a worst-case scenario where NATO’s response could be delayed, leaving Lithuania and its neighbors vulnerable to a Russian advance.

    The computer-simulated wargame, developed with input from former U.S. Army Europe commander Ben Hodges and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Philip Breedlove, envisions an attack taking place in 2027, with Russian forces launching assaults from Belarus and the Kaliningrad region, swiftly moving to occupy parts of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

    The focus of the attack would be the strategically significant Suwałki Corridor, a 100-kilometer stretch of land connecting Kaliningrad to Belarus.

    Often dubbed “the most dangerous place on the planet,” this corridor could be used to cut off the Baltic states from the rest of NATO.

    The simulation suggests that NATO’s Article 5 – the alliance’s collective defense clause – could take several days to activate, causing delays in mobilizing support.

    As a result, Lithuania and the other Baltic states would need to face Russian forces alone for up to 10 days before NATO could deliver significant reinforcements to the region.

    During this period, NATO’s German brigade stationed in Lithuania, expected to number 5,000 troops and 44 Leopard 2 tanks by 2027, would play a crucial role.

    In the simulation, German tanks eventually halted the Russian advance within three days of deployment.

    “We need to buy as much time as possible,” explained General Breedlove.

    “First there will be air support, then the fleet, and then heavy ground troops. It would be necessary to hold positions until the arrival of large NATO forces,” he noted.

    Despite successful resistance, the damage to Lithuania would be severe, with the country left partially occupied and devastated by the end of the conflict.

    Thousands of fatalities on both sides would also be recorded in a ferocious few days of fighting.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 10/22/2024 – 02:00

  • The Left Falsely Portrays Disinformation As The Right's Monopoly
    The Left Falsely Portrays Disinformation As The Right’s Monopoly

    Authored by Peter Berkowitz via RealClearPolitics,

    On an Oct. 13 MSNBC broadcast with anchor Jen Psaki, Democratic strategist – and former political advisor to President Bill Clinton – James Carville denounced Donald Trump for putting “the entire Constitution in jeopardy.” Carville offered a concrete example of the right’s subversion of American freedom and democracy: “The Supreme Court and Clarence Thomas have totally greenlighted the idea that you could round up, use the military to round up your political enemies.” A former political advisor to Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Psaki replied with a smile, “We love the truth telling.”

    Carville and Psaki are typical. The left often portrays itself as the rigorous defender of truth against relentless right-wing disinformation while resolutely promoting progressive disinformation, including the falsehood that disinformation is a distinctively right-wing phenomenon.

    Small wonder that Carville did not elaborate on his extraordinary accusation, and that Psaki did not ask why he singled out Justice Thomas or how the Supreme Court authorized the rounding up of political enemies. Perhaps Carville had in mind the court’s holding last July in Trump v. United States “that the President is absolutely immune from criminal prosecution for conduct within his exclusive sphere of constitutional authority.” But the Constitution does not give the president authority to round up political enemies.

    Did Carville glibly attack Trump and did Psaki politely play along? Did partisan rage distort Carville’s judgment as well as Psaki’s? Did Carville resolve to assert – and Psaki to endorse – whatever it takes, including nightmare scenarios, to protect democracy from Trump?

    It is hard to read hearts and minds. But one can confidently affirm that deceiving about politics is as old as politics.

    Circumstances change. Regimes come and go. Empires rise and fall. Parties win and lose. Yet even as modernization and technology revolutionize human affairs by generating material abundance, destabilizing settled expectations, and eroding inherited understandings, human beings remain social and political animals. Individuals need one another’s company and cooperation while – given diverse backgrounds, disposition, abilities, and interests – differing over what is useful, just, and good. Some strive to exercise power over others while most try to minimize the power that others exercise over them. Through it all, passion and prejudice constantly buffet everyone’s reasoning, and auspicious opportunities and dire predicaments tempt even the virtuous to portray the facts as other than they are.

    No doubt novel opportunities abound today for promulgating lies and disseminating the family of departures from the truth that human beings routinely produce, distribute, consume, and rail against. In particular, the Internet, digital communications, and social media have facilitated the acquisition and transmission of immense amounts of information. This has greatly increased the quantity and accelerated the velocity of casual errors, self-deceptions, well-meaning half-truths, fraudulently marketed opinions and ideas, and outright lies that swirl through political culture.

    Both right and left in America partake of the free-for-all of duplicity – often crude, occasionally artful – that plagues American politics. There is, however, an asymmetry.

    Both sides insist that the other is exclusively at fault for the decay of public discourse. But the left controls the commanding heights of education, mainstream and social media, and government bureaucracy.

    The left’s false contention that the right exercises a monopoly on manipulation, deceit, and falsehood is particularly damaging because the left amplifies its accusation through domination of the nation’s communication, elite opinion formation, and rule-making and law-enforcement institutions. This substantial advantage in the struggle to shape public opinion encourages the left’s sense of superiority while blinding progressives to their own intellectual subterfuges and ideological swindles. It also foments outrage on the right. Conservatives justify their extreme statements and outrageous claims as playing by progressives’ rules.

    Atlantic staff writer Charlie Warzel recently illustrated the left’s propensity to wrongly present disinformation as a specifically right-wing pathology. Author of “Galaxy Brain,” The Atlantic’s newsletter “about technology, media, and big ideas,” Warzel argues in “I’m Running Out of Ways to Explain How Bad This Is” that an unprecedented assault on truth has “been building for more than a decade.” The crisis stems, he maintains, from a calamitous combination of right-wing extremism and digital technology that breaks reality into two – a world of truth inhabited by the left and a world of “dark” falsehoods that the right creates, outfits, and calls home.

    “This reality-fracturing is the result of an information ecosystem that is dominated by platforms that offer financial and attentional incentives to lie and enrage, and to turn every tragedy and large event into a shameless content-creation opportunity,” writes Warzel. “This collides with a swath of people who would rather live in an alternate reality built on distrust and grievance than change their fundamental beliefs about the world.”

    Warzel would have placed his analysis of just how badly political discourse in America has deteriorated on much sounder footing if he had recognized that the left also employs digital technology to fabricate and maintain a separate world. In the left’s alternative reality, the remorseless siege of systemic racism, sexism, and other sinister forms of oppression obliges progressives to abandon basic requirements of evidence and argument to rally the faithful and save the nation and the world.

    Responses to Hurricanes Helene and Milton, maintains Warzel, have set a new low. “Even in a decade marred by online grifters, shameless politicians, and an alternative right-wing-media complex pushing anti-science fringe theories,” he writes, “the events of the past few weeks stand out for their depravity and nihilism.” He gives chilling examples careening around the Internet of harebrained conspiracy theories about government malfeasance and implausible stories of official neglect, or deliberate disregard, of storm victims that have delayed the delivery of essential government services. These remind that people can easily dupe others and be duped, especially when hurricane season coincides with election season, and individuals are armed with smart phones and social media accounts, and distrust elite institutions.

    Warzel is rightly alarmed that “Americans are divided not just by political beliefs but by whether they believe in a shared reality – or desire one at all.” But his one-sided analysis inadvertently underscores that fault for the splintering of America does not lie solely with Trump and his backers.

    Or even primarily.

    Yes, Jan. 6, 2021, was a disgrace. Yes, right-wing rhetoric can be ridiculous, ominous, and vile. And yes, right-wing activists also exploit the Internet to stoke grievance and stir up resentment and rage.

    Still, progressives tend to neglect that Trump and his voters have reasons, accumulating for decades, for distrusting institutions fundamental to the nation’s security, prosperity, and freedom and dominated by progressives: universities, the mainstream media and social media, and the federal bureaucracy.

    Contrary to the common view on the left that Trump inaugurated a war on truth, our universities have for at least two generations sought to emancipate students from the traditional understanding that higher education’s purpose is to pursue knowledge and cultivate independent minds. Instead, through a succession of intellectual fashions and fads – including positivism, relativism, postmodernism, deconstruction, multiculturalism, identity politics, and intersectionality – universities have fostered the incoherent and partisan belief that since moral values are socially constructed, progressive policies must prevail.

    Meanwhile, our progressive media – mainstream and social – and our progressive federal bureaucracy have collaborated to promote progressive national narratives by censoring opinions that challenge the progressive perspective and weaponizing the law against those who oppose progressivism’s hegemony.

    The most egregious such collaboration revolved around the charge – widely presented as established fact by the press, defeated candidate Hillary Clinton, and elected Democratic officials and progressive intellectuals – that Donald Trump conspired with Russia to steal the 2016 election. This weighed down President Trump and hampered his administration. Yet after a two-year investigation, Special Counsel Robert Mueller, whose team contained several experienced and high-powered Democratic lawyers, issued a lengthy report stating that the investigation “did not establish that the Trump campaign coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.”

    Another disreputable collaboration to advance progressive ends sought to push Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden over the finish line in November 2020. A few weeks before the election, the New York Post accurately reported that a laptop containing incriminating evidence belonged to Joe Biden’s son Hunter. The mainstream media, social media, and the FBI censored the Post’s reporting while disseminating the falsehood that the computer was a product of Russian disinformation.

    A third major collaboration occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. The New York Times and the Washington Post derided the notion that the virus leaked from a Chinese lab, which it likely did, and government officials, led by Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Francis Collins, suppressed the lab-leak hypothesis. In addition, the mainstream media, social media, and federal government teamed up to discredit and silence those who raised questions about the efficacy of masks, lockdowns, and vaccines.

    To do their share to arrest the splintering of America, progressives must do more than profess their love of the truth. They must act like they mean it.

    Peter Berkowitz is the Tad and Dianne Taube senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. From 2019 to 2021, he served as director of the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. State Department. His writings are posted at PeterBerkowitz.com and he can be followed on X @BerkowitzPeter.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 23:25

  • Hurricane Helene's Political Disaster
    Hurricane Helene’s Political Disaster

    Authored by Ryan Bonifay via RealClearPolitics,

    Hurricane Helene devastated large swaths of western North Carolina, with entire towns wiped away or forever altered. The human disaster will be felt for decades. But there’s another impending disaster no one is talking about – a political one.

    North Carolina is a perennial swing state with a penchant for split-ticket voting. In 2020, Donald Trump won the state by less than 1.5 percentage points. In 2008, Barack Obama clinched the state for the Democrats by a mere 14,000 votes out of 4.3 million votes. This year, North Carolina is once again a battleground state, with both political parties spending hundreds of millions of dollars, and both presidential nominees are spending significant time here. In the Tar Heel State, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are literally fighting for every single vote.

    But Hurricane Helene didn’t just wipe out towns. It may also wipe out people’s right to vote. Tens of thousands of voters are homeless or temporarily camped out far from their homes. While the North Carolina Board of Elections is tweaking rules to make it easier to vote, residents in the most severely damaged areas probably have other, bigger problems on their minds – like missing relatives, lost livelihoods, children who can’t go to school, filing insurance claims, just to name a few. The last thing on their to-do lists is remembering to reregister to vote at their new address before Oct. 6, which has since come and gone. 

    There is an unspoken question that needs to be voiced: What happens if hundreds of thousands of voters in western North Carolina can’t vote in the 2024 election?

    The disaster declaration in western North Carolina encompasses 25 counties, comprising 1.3 million registered voters, of which 974,514 voted for president in 2020.

    Currently, registered Republicans make up 37.9% of western North Carolina voters compared to 28.2% in the rest of the state. Registered Democrats make up only 22.8% of western North Carolina voters compared to 33.2% in the rest of the state. In 2020, Trump won 604,119 votes to Joe Biden’s 356,902 votes in those 25 counties. 

    In other words, western North Carolina is Republican country, even with deep blue Asheville sitting in the heart of the mountains. In the closest election in recent history, Republicans don’t have 600,000 votes to spare.

    In order for a Republican candidate to have a fighting chance of winning statewide in North Carolina, they have to drive up their margin of victory in the western part of the state. Since 2016, Republican presidential and Senate candidates have won by a margin of 23.4% to 27.9% in western North Carolina. In those same elections, all Republicans (Trump, Tillis, Budd), except former Sen. Richard Burr, also lost the rest of the state.

    Compare those margins to losing Republican candidates. In 2016, the incumbent governor, Pat McCrory, won western North Carolina by 19.3%. Four years later, Republican Dan Forest only eked out an 18.7% margin in the west. McCrory lost the rest of the state by 4.4%, and Forest lost it by 9.5%.

    In other words, statewide Republicans can’t win North Carolina without soaking up every red vote to the west.

    As of Oct. 7, absentee ballot requests in western North Carolina totaled 46,094, accounting for 15.7% of statewide requests. Some of those ballots will never reach their intended recipients. That is concerning, but the bigger impact will come from in-person early voting, slated to begin October 17. In 2020, 70% of Trump’s vote in western North Carolina came from in-person early voting sites. It is not yet clear how many early voting sites are damaged, but the wide expanse of Helene’s damage suggests it will be significant. According to Axios, “infrastructure, accessibility to voting sites, and postal services remain severely disrupted” in 13 counties, accounting for 552,514 registered voters.

    With North Carolina growing increasingly close, hundreds of thousands of Tar Heel voters who are unable to vote could doom Republicans chances here – and nationwide – over the next 27 days. While it is possible for Trump to win 270 electoral votes while losing North Carolina, it makes a narrow path to the White House that much narrower.

    Playing around with the electoral map produces a number of scenarios in which Trump comes short of 270 electoral votes without North Carolina. One scenario gives Trump Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania while losing Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina. He loses that election 265 to 273.

    Getting western North Carolina back on its feet has to be the priority for the federal and state governments. However, with such an important election at our doorstep, it would be irresponsible to ignore the political implications of this historic disaster. It’s not just about disenfranchising voters – which is important enough.

    Imagine for a moment that this election comes down to a razor-thin margin in storm-torn North Carolina. Allegations start flying – about lost ballots, late ballots, ballots sent to the wrong precincts, etc. It will be Florida circa 2000 on steroids, and nobody wants to go through that again. Our country is already fraying at the seams with little trust in our democratic institutions. Talk about throwing a match into a powder keg.

    To prevent this election outcome from being dictated by a 100-year storm, it is incumbent on the Board of Elections to do absolutely everything in its power to make sure western North Carolinians, especially those in rural and most isolated parts of the impacted area, have every opportunity to cast their ballots. It’s also incumbent on Republicans to start tackling this problem now. Don’t wait until Nov. 6 to sound the alarm.

    No one wants to politicize a storm that has destroyed so many lives, but that’s exactly what will happen if we don’t get this right.

    Ryan Bonifay is the director of data & analytics at ColdSpark and lives in Lexington, North Carolina. Bonifay has worked and served as data director for several campaigns and organizations across the southeast, including the Republican National Committee, Engage Texas, Texans for Greg Abbott, and former U.S. Senator David Perdue.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 23:00

  • FBI Believes US Intel Leak On Israel Was Likely A Government Insider, Not Hacking
    FBI Believes US Intel Leak On Israel Was Likely A Government Insider, Not Hacking

    The FBI and the Department of Defense are scrambling to uncover how it was that two highly classified intelligence documents related to Israel’s preparation for a potential retaliatory attack on Iran appeared on a Middle East news-related Telegram channel days ago.

    The White House has described President Biden as “deeply concerned” over the serious breach, and has confirmed there is an intense investigation ongoing to ascertain how it happened and who had access.

    At this point it’s not even confirmed whether the documents were made public via a hack or a leak by an individual who had access to them.

    The documents were produced by the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency, and were marked “Top Secret” and restricted from distribution from most foreign allies, with the exception of countries belonging to the “Five Eyes”.

    The White House also said Monday that at this point officials do not believe that more documents were breached beyond the two which were made public.

    CNN meanwhile reports that investigators currently believe the intel docs were leaked by someone within the US intelligence community:

    The FBI is leading the investigation, working with Pentagon investigators and the intelligence community, according to US officials briefed on the matter.

    In recent days, investigators have worked to authenticate the documents and determine who could have had access to them, the officials said.

    That focus is one indication that, for now, the FBI and other investigators are working off the theory that the breach most likely came from a government insider and not from a cyber intrusion.

    Statements attributed to the FBI further suggest authorities are getting close to tracking down the culprit. While both documents were available among a relatively large pool of US intelligence analysts and officials, CNN has noted that one of them appears to have been scanned from a printed briefing book.

    “That could provide investigators with a critical jumping-off point: The Defense Department, like other federal agencies, tracks when employees print classified documents. The pool of people who printed these pages would be relatively small, these sources said,” CNN details.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    This is precisely how US Air Force veteran and former NSA translator Reality Winner got caught. She printed a single classified document from her work computer, and then anonymously mailed it to The Intercept. It was an NSA document related to alleged ‘Russian interference’ in the 2016 United States elections, which involved some phishing scams and efforts at breaching voting software. The document itself was relatively vague. Government investigators were able to very quickly determine which printer was used, and which NSA employee viewed it.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 22:35

  • US House Task Force Finds 1st Trump Assassination Attempt Was 'Preventable'
    US House Task Force Finds 1st Trump Assassination Attempt Was ‘Preventable’

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The House task force investigating the July 13 assassination attempt targeting former President Donald Trump concluded that the incident was “preventable,” releasing new testimony from local law enforcement officials who provided accounts of communications and operational failures at the rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.

    Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump is helped off the stage at a campaign event in Butler, Pa., on July 13, 2024. Gene J. Puskar/AP Photo

    Released on Monday, the report concluded that there was a “lack of planning and coordination” between the U.S. Secret Service and its local law enforcement partners during the Trump rally.

    The Secret Service, it found, “did not give clear guidance to the relevant state and local agencies about managing areas outside the secure event perimeter, and there was no joint meeting on the day of the rally between [the Secret Service] and all state and local law enforcement agencies assisting” the federal agency.

    Monday’s House task force report mostly echoes findings made by the Senate Homeland Security panel report and an internal Secret Service report, both of which were released in September.

    The report included findings that were already publicly released. But the report contained new interviews with local law enforcement officials in Butler County on how the Secret Service failed to perform on July 13.

    Unnamed officials in Butler provided more details on how the gunman was first spotted by law enforcement and that nothing was done until he opened fire upon the rally, clipping Trump’s right ear with a bullet while killing a rally-goer and severely injuring two others.

    As one example, one emergency services official told the panel that he sent a text message to his colleague that the shooter was seen with a rangefinder at around 5:17 p.m. However, the colleague did not see the message until more than 20 minutes later, at around 5:40 p.m.

    The report also included new testimony from the officer who attempted to climb on the roof of the building where the gunman had perched before he opened fire. Days after the shooting, local officials confirmed that an officer tried to get on the roof but that the shooter pointed his weapon at him, forcing the officer to back down.

    Police body-camera footage was also released of the incident, showing the officer getting a boost from another law enforcement official in a bid to climb on the roof. The shooter could not be seen in that clip.

    That unnamed official told the panel that as he attempted to move his way onto the roof, the gunman “slowly turned on his waist” and “slowly turned around.”

    “And as I came up, that’s when he pointed his firearm in my face,” the official said. “And at that time, I could see, you know, he had a bookbag with him, I could see mags (gun magazines).

    “I knew he had a long gun, like an AR-platform. And as I’m coming up and he’s got the gun pointed at me, I don’t know if I reach for my gun, if I slip, but all I know from that point is I’m looking at him, and all my weight is on my, like, arms, my hands, and I don’t have a grip.”

    The officer added, “The next thing I know, I smack against the ground and fall.”

    “I just start yelling out to the guys that are there, I yell on the radio right away,” the official added. “I start saying, you know, South end, He’s got a long gun. Male on the roof. I just kept repeating, He’s got a gun. He’s got a long gun. I’m telling the guys that are around, like, he’s right up there, guns up, eyes up, still screaming on the radio.”

    Overall, local and state law enforcement officials who spoke to the House panel were largely critical of the lack of a unified command and communications post to oversee security at the Trump event.

    They also said that there was no unified briefing between the federal and local partners that could “have led to gaps in awareness among state and local law enforcement partners as to who was stationed where, spheres of responsibility, and expectations regarding communications during the day,” according to the report.

    The Secret Service has not issued a comment on the House panel’s report. The Epoch Times contacted the agency but received no response by publication time.

    The acting director of the Secret Service in August conceded that the agency failed in its mission to protect Trump during the rally, did not properly secure the rally site, and that several agency staffers would face punishment over the incident.

    Two months later, federal law enforcement officials said that Trump was the target of a second assassination attempt, this time at his Florida golf course while he was golfing. The Secret Service said that an agent who was protecting Trump saw the barrel of a rifle sticking out of a perimeter fence on Sept. 15 before he engaged with the suspect and opened fire, prompting him to flee.

    Ryan Wesley Routh was later arrested and charged with multiple felony counts in connection to the incident and has pleaded not guilty. Prosecutors say that Routh had authored a note that indicated he wanted to assassinate the former president.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 21:45

  • Girl Scout Dues Could Rise As Much As 240% Next Year
    Girl Scout Dues Could Rise As Much As 240% Next Year

    So much for 2% inflation…

    The Girl Scouts could be forced to raise yearly membership from $25 to $85, according to a new report from Fox News. That marks a rise of 240%, for those of you keeping inflation score at home. 

    Girl Scouts of the USA President Noorain Khan and CEO Bonnie Barczykowski said this week: “We have collectively acknowledged that a membership dues increase is needed which is greater than the 25 percent (or $6.25) the National Board has authority to approve in a single triennium.”

    “Over the past few years, costs have increased everywhere, and neither GSUSA nor our councils have been immune to this pressure,” it continued. “Operating at a deficit — spending more than we bring in — as we have been doing, is not sustainable.”

    The statement continues: “We can no longer afford to use our financial reserves, and we cannot pass through all escalating costs to our councils.”

    It says: “The additional revenue generated by national annual membership dues of $85 for girls and $45 for adults will enable all of us, together, to deliver our Movement strategy.”

    The Fox News report says that Girl Scouts membership has declined in recent years, partly due to the pandemic. Meanwhile, the Boy Scouts, now Scouting America, began accepting girls in 2018.

    The Girl Scouts ended the 2023 fiscal year with a $4.4 million deficit, which is projected to grow to $5.6 million by the end of 2024.

    Girl Scout troop leader Sally Bertram commented: “I just feel like a triple jump in numbers is going to dissolve the Girl Scouts in southeast Indiana. People out here do not pay that kind of money.”

    “I think that these girls could lose a lifetime of experiences,” she continued. 

    In a statement to Fox, Girl Scouts said: “Ensuring that Girl Scouts can be here for girls (now and in the future) requires financial resources. Girl Scouts has not raised membership dues in over 8 years.”

    “This is not a decision we take lightly, which is why 900 delegates representing Girl Scouts’ membership are coming together to weigh options and vote to ensure that Girl Scouts thrive and that, most importantly, every girl has access to the Girl Scout experience so desperately needed today.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 21:20

  • Ron Paul: Why Should We Fight Wars For Ukraine And Israel?
    Ron Paul: Why Should We Fight Wars For Ukraine And Israel?

    Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute,

    When you take on the role of the world’s policeman, don’t be surprised when countries who cannot fight their own wars call “911.”

    That is exactly what is happening to the United States on two fronts and it is bankrupting our country, depleting the military that should serve our own national interest, and threatening to drag the US into World War III.

    Last week, Ukraine’s “president” Vladimir Zelensky publicly presented his “Victory Plan.”

    It was delusional: immediate NATO Membership for Ukraine, NATO strikes against incoming Russian missiles, and permission to use Western long-range missiles for strikes deep into Russia including Moscow and St. Petersburg.

    The real intent was not hard to understand.

    Ukraine is on the verge of losing its war with Russia and is desperate to draw the United States military into the fight. There were numerous opportunities to avoid this bloody war but at every step the Ukrainian leadership listened to western neocons (like Boris Johnson) and decided to keep fighting Russia down to the last Ukrainian.

    But now that they are nearly down to the last Ukrainian, they are calling on us to step in and fight the country with the most nuclear weapons on earth -Russia – in a battle that could not be more unrelated to our actual interests.

    Washington’s answer should be simple but firm:

    “No more weapons, no more money. You’re on your own. Make peace.”

    Would the US be mortally wounded if the people in Eastern Ukraine were allowed to secede from Kiev and join Russia?

    Would anyone except the Russia-obsessed neocons in DC think tanks even notice?

    Likewise with Israel.

    Tel Aviv has, in response to the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, launched a war to annihilate Palestinians from Gaza, invade and occupy southern Lebanon, degrade the military of Iraq and Syria, and take on Iran. But the Israeli military has nowhere near the capacity to fight so many wars on so many fronts, so it has increasingly demanded US involvement in the conflicts. Already the US has provided some $23 billion in additional military aid to Israel and has employed US military assets in the region to shoot down missiles and provide increased weapons and intelligence.

    But it’s still not enough for Israel. To fight Iran, with its significant military capabilities, Israel appears desperate to drag the US military into the battle. The stationing of one or perhaps two THAAD air defense systems, each with 100 US troops to operate them, is part of that effort. These 100-200 US troops are illegally engaged in combat, but what’s worse is that they are being used as a tripwire. US and Israeli leaders understand that they will be considered legitimate targets for any additional Iranian missile attack, but as soon as American troops start getting killed in Israel there will be a massive push for further US involvement. Imagine the mainstream media war propaganda if such a terrible thing happens.

    That is no way to use members of the US armed services. It is the opposite of supporting our troops.

    Washington’s response to Israel trying to drag us into its war with Iran should be just like with Ukraine:

    “No more weapons, no more money. You’re on your own. Make peace.”

    That is what a pro-America foreign policy looks like. Our Founders understood it very well and wrote about it often.

    It’s called “non-intervention.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 20:55

  • Visualizing The Rise Of Antibiotic Resistance
    Visualizing The Rise Of Antibiotic Resistance

    Bacterial infections are becoming more dangerous.

    When you’re fighting a bacterial infection, a doctor will typically prescribe you an antibiotic to help you recover. Unfortunately, rising antibiotic resistance means these drugs are becoming less effective.

    In part one of this series on antimicrobial resistance, Visual Capitalist’s Jenna Ross partnered with the MSCI Sustainability Institute to highlight the increase in bacteria’s resistance to antibiotics.

    What is Antibiotic Resistance?

    Antibiotic resistance happens when bacteria evolve and become resistant to the drugs used to treat them. To some extent, this occurs naturally due to genetic changes in pathogens. 

    However, people have misused and overused drugs to prevent, control, and treat infections in humans, animals, and plants. This is the primary cause of more resistant bacteria.

    Resistance Rates Over Time

    Based on the latest available data, the resistance rates of key antibiotics increased from about 16% in 2001 to 44% in 2020. In other words, nearly half of infections are not responsive to the antibiotics typically used to treat them. 

    Unfortunately, the majority of experts believe that some of these key antibiotics—including amoxicillin and cephalexin, some of the most prescribed drugs in the U.S.—will very likely be lost to resistance within the next 15 years.

    The Impact of Antibiotic Resistance

    With treatments no longer working for illnesses like pneumonia or urinary tract infections in some cases, the risk of disease and death increases. Every year, antibiotic resistance directly leads to nearly 1.3 million deaths.

    On top of this, rising resistance creates investment threats. For instance, companies failing to address antimicrobial resistance might face reputational damage. However, there are also opportunities for investors when it comes to the development of new antibiotics and alternative treatments.

    In the second part of this series, we highlight the gap between infection-related deaths and research efforts. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 20:30

  • The Neo-Liberal Consensus Is Coming Apart
    The Neo-Liberal Consensus Is Coming Apart

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

    The global Covid response was the turning point in public trust, economic vitality, citizen health, free speech, literacy, religious and travel freedom, elite credibility, demographic longevity, and so much more. Now five years following the initial spread of the virus that provoked the largest-scale despotisms of our lives, something else seems to be biting the dust: the postwar neo-liberal consensus itself. 

    The world as we knew it only a decade ago is on fire, precisely as Henry Kissinger warned in one of his last published articles. Nations are erecting new trade barriers and dealing with citizen uprisings like we’ve never seen before, some peaceful, some violent, and most that could go either way. On the other side of this upheaval lies the answer to the great question: what does political revolution look like in advanced industrial economies with democratic institutions? We are in the process of finding out. 

    Let’s take a quick march through modern history through the lens of US-China relations.

    From the time of China’s opening in the 1980s to the election of Donald Trump in 2016, the volume of trade imports from China only grew, decade after decade. It was the most conspicuous sign of a general trajectory toward globalism that began following the Second World War and accelerated with the end of the Cold War. Tariffs and trade barriers fell ever more, as dollars as the world reserve currency filled the coffers of world central banks. The US was the global source of liquidity that made it all possible. 

    It came at a huge cost, however, as the US through the decades lost its manufacturing advantages in dozens of industries that once defined the American commercial experience. Watches and clocks, pianos, furniture, textiles, clothing, steel, tools, shipbuilding, toys, household appliances, home electronics, and semiconductors all left US shores while other industries are on the rocks, most especially cars. Today, the much-celebrated “green energy” industries seem fated to be outcompeted as well. 

    These industries came to be largely replaced by debt-financed financial products, the explosion of the government-backed medical sector, information systems, entertainment, and government-funded education, while the primary exports of the US became debt and petroleum products. 

    Many forces combined to sweep Donald Trump into office in 2016 but resentment against the internationalization of manufacturing was high among them. As financialization replaced domestic manufacturing, and class mobility stagnated, a political alignment took shape in the US that stunned the elites. Trump got busy on his pet issue, namely erecting trade barriers against countries with whom the US was running trade deficits, primarily China. 

    By 2018, and in response to new tariffs, the volume of trade with China took its first huge hit, reversing not only a 40-year trajectory of growth but also dealing the first the biggest blow against the 70-year postwar consensus of the neo-liberal world. Trump was doing it largely on his own initiative and against the wishes of many generations of statesmen, diplomats, academics, and corporate elites. 

    Then something happened to reverse the reversal. That something was the Covid response. In Jared Kushner’s telling (Breaking History), he went to his father-in-law following the lockdowns and said:

     We’re scrambling to find supplies all over the world. Right now, we have enough to get through the next week—maybe two—but after that it could get really ugly really fast. The only way to solve the immediate problem is to get the supplies from China. Would you be willing to speak to President Xi to de-escalate the situation?

    “Now is not a time to be proud,” said Trump. “I hate that we are in this position, but let’s set it up.”

    It’s impossible to imagine the pain that decision must have caused Trump because this move meant a repudiation of all that he believed in foundationally and all that he set out to accomplish as president. 

    Kushner writes:

    I reached out to Chinese ambassador Cui Tiankai and proposed that the two leaders talk. Cui was keen on the idea, and we made it happen. When they spoke, Xi was quick to describe the steps China had taken to mitigate the virus. Then he expressed concern over Trump referring to COVID-19 as the ‘China Virus.’ Trump agreed to refrain from calling it that for the time being if Xi would give the United States priority over others to ship supplies out of China. Xi promised to cooperate. From that point forward, whenever I called Ambassador Cui with a problem, he sorted it out immediately.

    What was the result? Trade with China soared. Within a matter of weeks, Americans were wearing Chinese-made synthetic coverings on their faces, having their noses stuck with Chinese-made swabs, and being tended to by nurses and doctors wearing Chinese-made scrubs. 

    The chart on China’s trade volume looks like this. You can observe the long rise, the dramatic fall from 2018, and the reversal in the volume of PPE purchases following the lockdowns and Kushner’s interventions. The reversal did not last long as trade relations broke down and new trade blocs were born. 

    The irony, then, is a salient one: the aborted attempt to restart the neo-liberal order, if that is what it was, occurred in the midst of a global bout of totalitarian controls and restrictions. To what extent were the Covid lockdowns deployed in service of resisting Trump’s decoupling agenda? We have no answers to that question but observing the pattern does leave room for speculation. 

    Regardless, the trends of 70 years came to be reversed, landing the US in new times, described by the Wall Street Journal in the event of a Trump victory in 2024: 

    If it turns out that the tariff on China is 60% and the rest of the world is 10%, the U.S.’ average tariff, weighted by the value of imports, would leap to 17% from 2.3% in 2023, and 1.5% in 2016, according to Evercore ISI, an investment bank. That would be the highest since the Great Depression, after Congress passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1932), which triggered a global surge in trade barriers. U.S. tariffs would go from among the lowest to highest among major economies. If other countries retaliated, the rise in global trade barriers would have no modern precedent.

    Talk of the Smoot-Hawley tariff really does plunge us into the wayback machine. Back in those days, trade policy in the US followed the US Constitution (Article I, Section 8). The original system granted Congress the power to regulate commerce with foreign nations, among other powers. This was intended to keep trade policy within the legislative branch to ensure democratic accountability. As a result, Congress responded to the economic/financial crisis by imposing huge barriers against imports. The Depression worsened. 

    It was a widely accepted belief among many in elite circles that the 1932 tariffs were a factor in the deepening of the economic downturn. Two years later, efforts began to transfer trade authority to the executive so that the legislature would never do something so stupid again. The theory was that the president would be more likely to pursue a free-trade, low-tariff policy. That generation never imagined that the US would elect a president who would use his power to do the opposite. 

    In the waning days of the Second World War, a group of extremely smart and well-intended diplomats, statesmen, and intellectuals worked to secure the peace in the aftermath of the wreckage in Europe and around the world. They all agreed that a priority in the postwar world was to institutionalize economic cooperation as broadly as possible, under the theory that nations that are dependent on each other for their material well-being were less likely to go to war against each other. 

    Thus was born what came to be called the neo-liberal order. It consisted of democratic nations with limited welfare states cooperating in trading relationships with ever-lower barriers between states. In particular, the tariff was deprecated as a means of fiscal support and industrial protection. New agreements and institutions were founded to be the administrators of the new system: GATT, IMF, World Bank, and the UN. 

    The neo-liberal order was never liberal in the traditional sense. It was managed from the outset by states under US dominance. The architecture was always more fragile than it appeared to be. The Bretton Woods agreement of 1944, tightened through the decades, involved nascent institutions of global banking and included a US-managed monetary system that broke down in 1971 and was replaced by a fiat-dollar system. The flaw in both systems had a similar root. They established global money but retained national fiscal and regulatory systems, which thereby disabled the specie-flow mechanisms that smoothed and balanced trade in the 19th century. 

    One of the consequences was the manufacturing losses mentioned above, which coincided with a growing public perception that the institutions of government and finance were operating without transparency and citizen participation. The ballooning of the security state after 9-11 and the stunning bailouts of Wall Street after 2008 reinforced the point and set the stage for a populist revolt. The lockdowns – disproportionately benefitting elites – plus the burning of cities with the riots of the summer of 2020, the vaccine mandates, and combined with the onset of a migrant crisis, reinforced the point. 

    In the US, the panic and frenzy all surround Trump but that leaves unexplained why almost every Western country is dealing with the same dynamic. Today the core political fight in the world today concerns nation-states and the populist movements driving them versus the kind of globalism that brought a worldwide response to the virus as well as the worldwide migrant crisis. Both efforts failed spectacularly, most especially the attempt to vaccinate the entire population with a shot that is only defended today by manufacturers and those in their pay. 

    The problem of migration plus pandemic planning are only two of the latest data points but they both suggest an ominous reality of which many people in the world are newly aware. The nation-states that have dominated the political landscape since the Renaissance, and even back in some cases to the ancient world, had given way to a form of government we can call globalism. It doesn’t refer only to trade across borders. It is about political control, away from citizens in countries toward something else that citizens cannot control or influence.

    From the time of the Treaty of Westphalia, signed in 1648, the idea of state sovereignty prevailed in politics. Not every nation needed the same policies. They would respect differences toward the goal of peace. This involved permitting religious diversity among nation-states, a concession that led to an unfolding of freedom in other ways. All governance came to be organized around geographically restricted zones of control. 

    The juridical boundaries restrained power. The idea of consent gradually came to dominate political affairs from the 18th through the 19th century until after the Great War which dismantled the last of the multinational empires. That left us with one model: the nation-state in which citizens exercised ultimate sovereignty over the regimes under which they live. The system worked but not everyone has been happy with it.

    Some of the most high-status intellectuals for centuries have dreamed of global government as a solution to the diversity of policies of nation-states. It’s the go-to idea for scientists and ethicists who are so convinced of the correctness of their ideas that they dream up some worldwide imposition of their favored solution. Humanity has by and large been wise enough not to attempt such a thing beyond military alliances and mechanisms to improve trade flows.

    Despite the failure of global management last century, in the 21st century, we’ve seen the intensification of the power of globalist institutions. The World Health Organization (WHO) effectively scripted the pandemic response for the world. Globalist foundations and NGOs seem to be heavily involved in the migrant crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, created as nascent institutions for a global system of money and finance, are exercising outsized influence on monetary and financial policy. The World Trade Organization (WTO) is working to diminish the power of the nation-state over trade policies.

    Then there is the United Nations. I happened to be in New York City a few weeks ago when the United Nations met. No question that it was the biggest show on planet Earth. Vast swaths of the city were shut down to cars and buses, with diplomats and heavy-hitting financiers arriving via helicopter on the roofs of luxury hotels, all of which were full for the week of meetings. The prices of everything were jacked up in response since no one was spending his own money in any case.

    The attendees were not only statesmen from all over the world but also the biggest financial firms and media outfits, along with representatives of the largest universities and nonprofits. All of these forces seem to be coalescing at once, as if they all want to be part of the future. And that future is one of global governance wherein the nation-state is eventually reduced to pure cosmetics with no operational power.

    The impression I had while there was that the experience of everyone in town that day, all swarming around the big United Nations meeting, was one of deep separation of their world from the world of the rest of us. They are “bubble people.” Their friends, source of financing, social groupings, career aspirations, and major influence are detached not only from normal people but from the nation-state itself. The fashionable attitude among them all is to regard the nation-state and its history of meaning as passe, fictional, and rather embarrassing.

    Entrenched globalism of the sort that operates in the 21st century represents a shift against and repudiation of half a millennium of the way governance has worked in practice. The United States was initially established as a country of localized democracies that only came together under a loose confederation. The Articles of Confederation created no central government but rather deferred to the former colonies to set up (or continue) their own structures of governance. When the Constitution came along, it created a careful equilibrium of checks and balances to restrain the national state while preserving the rights of the states. The idea here was not to overthrow citizen control over the nation-state but institutionalize it.

    All these years later, most people in most nations, the United States especially, believe that they should have final say over the structure of the regime. This is the essence of the democratic ideal, and not as an end in itself but as a guarantor of freedom, which is the principle that drives the rest. Freedom is inseparable from citizen control of government. When that link and that relationship are shattered, freedom itself is gravely damaged.

    The world today is packed with wealthy institutions and individuals that stand in revolt against the ideas of freedom and democracy. They do not like the idea of geographically constrained states with zones of juridical power. They believe they have a global mission and want to empower global institutions against the sovereignty of people living in nation-states.

    They say that there are existential problems that require the overthrow of the nation-state model of governance. They have a list: infectious disease, pandemic threats, climate change, peacekeeping, cybercrime, financial stability, and the threat of instability, and I’m sure there are others on the list that we’ve yet to see. The idea is that these are necessarily worldwide and evade the capacity of the nation-state to deal with them.

    We are all being acculturated to believe that the nation-state is nothing but an anachronism that needs to be supplanted. Keep in mind that this necessarily means treating democracy and freedom as anachronisms too. In practice, the only means by which average people can restrain tyranny and despotism is through voting at the national level. None of us have any influence over the policies of the WHO, World Bank, or IMF, much less over the Gates or Soros Foundations. The way politics is structured in the world today, we are all necessarily disenfranchised in a world governed by global institutions.

    And that is precisely the point: to achieve universal disenfranchisement of average people so that the elites can have a free hand in regulating the planet as they see fit. This is why it becomes supremely urgent for every person who aspires to live in peace and freedom to regain national sovereignty and say no to the transfer of authority to institutions over which citizens have no control.

    Devolving power from the center is the only path by which we can restore the ideals of the great visionaries of the past like Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Paine, and the entire generation of Enlightenment thinkers. In the end, governing institutions must be in citizen control, and pertain to the borders of particular states, or it necessarily becomes tyrannical over time. As Murray Rothbard put it, we need a world of nations by consent. 

    There are plenty of reasons to regret the collapse of the neo-liberal consensus and a strong rationale to be concerned about the rise of protectionism and high tariffs. And yet what they called “free trade” (not the simple freedom to buy and sell across borders but rather a state-managed industrial plan) also came at a cost: the transference of sovereignty away from the people in their communities and nations to supranational institutions over which citizens have no control. It did not have to be this way but that is how it was constructed to be. 

    For that reason, the neo-liberal consensus built in the postwar period contained the seeds of its own destruction. It was too dependent on the creation of institutions beyond people’s control and too reliant on elite mastery of events. It was already crumbling before the pandemic response but it was the Covid controls, nearly simultaneously imposed all over the world to underscore elite hegemony, that exposed the fist under the velvet glove. 

    The populist revolt of today might someday appear as the inevitable unfolding of events when people become newly aware of their own disenfranchisement. Human beings are not content to live in cages. 

    Many of us have long predicted a backlash to the lockdowns and all that was associated with them. The full scale of it none of us could have imagined. The drama of our times is as intense as any of history’s great epochs: the fall of Rome, the Great Schism, the Reformation, the Enlightenment, and the fall of the multinational empires. The only question now is whether this ends like America 1776 or France 1790. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 20:05

  • Pentagon Chief Visits Ukraine, Unveils New Aid Package, Ahead Of US Election
    Pentagon Chief Visits Ukraine, Unveils New Aid Package, Ahead Of US Election

    Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin arrived in Ukraine’s capital by train on an unannounced visit Monday, at a moment Ukraine’s forces are getting steadily pushed back in the east, and as President Zelensky expresses frustration at the lack of large-scale new military aid.

    “It’s been absolutely remarkable that Ukraine has been able to do what it’s done,” Austin told reporters as he went into Ukraine Sunday night. “It’s been able to do that, of course, because of the fact that we have supported them from the very beginning, and we’ve rallied some 50 countries to be a part of that support.”

    In Kiev, Austin announced $400 million in new arms for Ukraine but did not acquiesce to the Ukrainians’ main ask – the greenlight to strike Russia with US-supplied weapons.

    The Wall Street Journal also emphasized of the package, “It was one of the smaller aid packages the Biden administration has announced and included no new types of weapons systems.”

    This trip to Ukraine is likely to be Austin’s last one there as Pentagon chief. CNN noted that it came amid a dark and pessimistic backdrop: 

    The secretary’s visit was also meant to serve as a moment for him to “step back” and look at the “arc” of the US-Ukraine relationship over the last two and a half years of war, a senior defense official said.

    It was not a victory lap, however. The Ukrainians are in a “very tough” situation against the Russians heading into winter, the official noted.

    There was one moment in Austin’s remarks clearly aimed at Trump and Republican lawmakers back home. Amid ongoing GOP criticisms, including calls to take care of Americans first amid natural disasters instead of handing billions over to Ukraine, the defense secretary tried to brush back these arguments…

    “For anyone who thinks that American leadership is expensive, well, consider the price of American retreat,” Austin said.

    “Not since World War II has America systematically rallied so many countries to provide such a range of industrial and military assistance for a partner in need.”

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    Zelensky last month lashed out at Trump running-mate J.D. Vance, calling him “too radical” for his stance on the war. The Ukrainian leader expressed that “the idea that the world should end this war at Ukraine’s expense is unacceptable.”

    Clearly Austin’s Monday words were framed in response to that controversy, and some GOP operatives are not going to be happy that the Pentagon chief used an official visit abroad to weigh in. But one question that remains is: How much for North Carolina?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 19:40

  • Elon Musk Says He's "Upgrading Security" After Being Named "Enemy Number Two" By Media
    Elon Musk Says He’s “Upgrading Security” After Being Named “Enemy Number Two” By Media

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    X owner Elon Musk says he is increasing his security after receiving “vitriolic” threats for endorsing president Trump.

    Appearing at a town hall event in Pittsburgh Sunday, Musk told the crowd about being pictured on the cover of Der Spiegel magazine, which labeled him ‘Public Enemy No. 2’ – behind Trump.

    “I’m like, enemy number 2 of what? Uh, democracy?” Musk told the crowd, adding “I mean I’m pro-democracy. I’m literally trying to uphold the Constitution and ensure we have a free and fair election.”

    Musk added, “I’m definitely upgrading my security,” quipping “Guess I better cancel that open-car parade.”

    The Tesla CEO admitted that he is a “little shook” by the “level of vitriolic hatred on the left.”

    “They claim they’re tolerant. And yet, they’re incredibly intolerant and spewing hate,”Musk said, adding “Whereas on the right I see people who tend to regard people on the left as, well, misguided. But they don’t hate them.”

    “But the amount of hate coming from the left is like, wow, next level,” he continued.

    Here’s the full event:

    Musk is no stranger to threats since taking over Twitter in an effort to preserve free speech.

    Musk has come under sustained attack since coming out for Trump.

    Deranged leftists, such as Mark Cuban, are openly advocating sanctioning Musk’s companies because of his political opinions.

    Musk has repeatedly warned that if Trump doesn’t win the election, it could be the last and that civilisation is on the line.

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 19:15

  • "Democratic Party Big Gov't Machine" Explained In Flow Charts 
    “Democratic Party Big Gov’t Machine” Explained In Flow Charts 

    Tyler O’Neil, managing editor of The Daily Signal, has done a deep dive on the radical left’s complex, dark money networks – what Elon Musk calls the “Democratic Party big government machine“ – which heavily influence the administrative state on issues like education, borders, climate change, transgender ideology, elections, foreign policy, and the weaponization of federal agencies against political enemies, like former President Trump and Musk.

    In a series of posts on X, O’Neil provides a 10,000 ft. view of this vast network which he details in his upcoming book, “The Woketopus: The Dark Money Cabal Manipulating the Federal Government.” 

    O’Neil begins with the question: 

    “Why is the Biden-Harris administration so woke? Didn’t Biden campaign as a moderate?” 

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    Continued from X:

    “This chart explains what happened. Bear with me: I know it looks like a conspiracy theory, but I have the receipts.

    In short: The Left’s dark money network funds a system of woke nonprofits that staff and advise the administrative state, getting their far-left policy agenda implemented in the federal government.” 

    One primary concern O’Neil has is the weaponization of federal law enforcement against conservatives, driven in part by the Southern Poverty Law Center.

    Here’s how that works: 

    One of the biggest issues for me has been the weaponization of federal law enforcement against conservatives.

    At the center of this is the Southern Poverty Law Center, a far-left smear factory that puts mainstream conservative and Christian groups on a “hate map” with the Ku Klux Klan. The SPLC targets organizations that oppose its far-left agenda on critical race theory, immigration, transgender issues, and more.

    SPLC President Margaret Huang has bragged that federal law enforcement reached out to the SPLC for advice on combatting the “domestic terror threat,” and FOIA documents reveal the extent of the SPLC’s influence in government. SPLC leaders and staff have visited the White House at least 18 times, according to visitor logs.

    The SPLC has also received funding from the Foundation to Promote Open Society, the Proteus Fund, the New Venture Fund, and the Tides Foundation.

    O’Neil shows the complex web of how Democrats and their billionaire funders, like Soros, and their leftist groups are trying a takeover of federal elections: 

    The vast influence campaign I call the Woketopus has also monkeyed with election rules. The leftist group Demos has extensive ties to the Biden-Harris administration.

    When the Senate failed to advance the Democrats’ H.R. 1 bill that would have amounted to a federal takeover of elections, Biden instead signed an executive order that echoed a Demos paper nearly word-for-word.

    This executive order enlisted federal agencies in registering voters, and early in the administration’s implementation of the order, the government convened a host of Woketopus groups — including SPLC, the Tides Foundation, and many others — to a “listening session.” Conspicuously absent was any conservative group or any group warning about election integrity.

    Here’s the influence network of how Democrats and their billionaire donors, such as Soros and Rockefeller Family Fund, push climate change policies via nonprofits that then influence federal agencies: 

    President Biden and VP Harris have repeatedly bragged about the “Inflation Reduction Act” as an historic investment in climate initiatives.

    The Biden-Harris administration has seen green activist groups infiltrate the federal government, using the bureaucracy as a revolving door and getting bureaucrats to implement their pet policies.

    One of the most notorious strategies they use is called “sue and settle.” An environmentalist group will sue a federal agency, claiming the agency failed to enforce the law by not regulating oil and gas enough. The agency, which is supposed to represent the American people, actually wants to regulate oil and gas more, so it denies the people a seat at the table. The agency admits fault, implements the green group’s preferred policy, and — to top it all off — often pays the green group money in a settlement.

    The Trump administration tried to crack down on this scheme, but the Biden-Harris administration reversed his efforts.

    And, of course, how billionaire donors use nonprofits to push foreign policy – including Israel, which is a horseshoe issue that both the progressive left and the libertarian-right agree on for somewhat overlapping reasons.

    While the Biden-Harris administration often favors the Woketopus’ agenda, some Woketopus groups have attacked Biden, and he has faced a deep state effort to undermine his policy supporting Israel.

    Of course, Biden’s record on Israel is far from perfect — he enriched Iran by loosening sanctions and trying to resurrect the Iran Nuclear Deal — but many bureaucrats rose in revolt when he publicly took Israel’s side after Oct. 7.

    Anti-Israel groups that tie in with the Woketopus network have pressured Biden to oppose Israel and to issue sanctions on Israelis. Many of the same dark money groups that funded organizations supporting the anti-Israel protests on college campuses have also bankrolled the Woketopus, and I detail their connections in my chapter on this effort. 

    But there’s more. Wonder where all the woke gender stuff came from?? 

    Why did the administration go all-in on transgender pronouns (even for illegal aliens), experimental “gender-affirming care,” and transgender rules for foster care?

    Well, the Human Rights Campaign’s Corporate Equality Index helps explain why Corporate America went woke, and HRC had a blueprint for federal policy, as well.

    Biden, Harris, and many others in the administration not only spoke at HRC event, but also met with HRC staff at the White House. How’s Biden’s equality score? I’ve got the answers in my book.

    O’Neil unravels the tangled web of far-left Democrats who exert influence the federal government via nonprofits to drive all sorts of policies nobody voted for – from green to woke to gender to foreign policy – the list goes on and on.

    More:

    Remember that fancy Constitution you learned about in school, with its nice checks and balances empowering the popular majority while protecting the rights of the minority? That’s not how it works today. Instead, a fourth branch of government writes reams and reams of regulations that dictate how you live your life. This system allows the woke elites to shove their ideology down our throats in the name of scientific progress.

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 18:50

  • These Homeschooling Parents Are Raising Their 6 Kids Without Devices
    These Homeschooling Parents Are Raising Their 6 Kids Without Devices

    Authored by Anna Mason and Daksha Devani via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Instead of slurping from their cereal bowls and scrolling through their phones, Glade and Bethel Smith’s children start their day by eating breakfast as a family followed by a reading of the Bible.

    Illustration by The Epoch Times, Courtesy of Glade Smith

    The Smith kids—Madeline,13, Everett, 11, Annabeth, 10, Vivian, 7, Penelope, 6, and Henry, 3—are eager to read the verses but wait for their turn, after which they clean up the kitchen and get ready to start their day.

    “We homeschool our kids,” 41-year-old Glade, from Nebraska, told The Epoch Times. “None of our kids have a phone or any electric devices. None of our kids play video games. [Instead] our kids love to read and love to use their imagination.”

    The Smith Family. Courtesy of Glade Smith

    Homeschooling and Helping Out at the Farm

    The kids begin their homeschooling day at 8.30 a.m. with their stay-at-home mom reading novels aloud that align with what they are learning at school, followed by a fun session of singing together.

    The Smith children, who read at least 25 to 30 books per year, are always begging for one more chapter to be read, said Glade, who owns Family Beef Farm Box—their family business that ships dry-aged, hand-cut beef across the country.

    The Smith Kids. Courtesy of Glade Smith

    If they complete their school work by lunchtime, the kids are encouraged to help their dad on the farm—with 3-year-old Henry, who isn’t in school yet, spending most of his time doing just that.

    “He’s probably our most animal lover of any of the kids,” Glade said, adding that the little boy loves milking cows and is not afraid of getting in there.

    Henry helping out at the farm. Courtesy of Glade Smith

    On Mondays, the older kids join Glade to pack beef boxes.

    In the last couple of years, the parents have instituted the idea of paid jobs, with each child getting paid some money for completing their daily chores.

    “My oldest daughter is in charge of some calves that need to be fed,” said Glade, who is also a multi-generational cattle producer and bred cattle marketing specialist with Wright Livestock. “My son is in charge of caring for 60 chickens. One of my younger daughters is in charge of gathering and washing eggs.”

    Courtesy of Glade Smith

    The Smith kids—who were introduced to farm life at birth— have shown a strong work ethic despite being young.

    Their proud father recalled a work trip to Oklahoma with his son, Everett, who won a fellow cattleman’s heart with his diligence.

    “We’re gathering several hundred head of cattle, sorting and loading trucks. One of these hard-working, blue-collar cattlemen was blown away watching my [son] running cattle around doing a good job and gave him a $20 bill,“ he said. ”A year later, my boy still has that $20 bill. That meant so much to him.”

    Packaging farm beef. Courtesy of Glade Smith

    Courtesy of Glade Smith

    Over the last year, Everett has worked laboriously in the muddy fields laying out heavy 30-foot-long tubes for irrigating crops in the scorching heat. His tireless efforts have won neighbors’ hearts with many asking Glade for his son’s assistance in irrigating their fields.

    “I was amused because I found myself being my son’s secretary, as neighbors were calling, [asking] ‘Can your son come help me today?’” Glade said, adding that he believes his hardworking son will become a “hot commodity” to farmers in the near future.

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 18:25

  • SCOTUS Ends Michael Cohen's Latest Attempt To Take Down Trump
    SCOTUS Ends Michael Cohen’s Latest Attempt To Take Down Trump

    This morning, the Supreme Court rejected former Donald Trump attorney Michael Cohen’s appeal to bring back his civil rights claim against the former president.

    Cohen alleged former President Donald Trump, former Attorney General William Barr and other federal officials put him back in prison as retaliation for promoting a book critical of Trump.

    “[A]s it stands, this case represents the principle that presidents and their subordinates can lock away critics of the executive without consequence,” Cohen’s petition states.

    As Sam Dorman reports for The Epoch Times, Cohen had argued that two lower courts wrongly dismissed a claim that former President Donald Trump violated his rights by ending his prison furlough during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    According to Cohen’s petition, he had objected to a federal form that probation officers asked him to sign, which prohibited him from engaging with the media, including posting on social media.

    At the time, he was writing a book critical of the former president.

    Cohen’s attorney, Jon-Michael Dougherty, said the ruling “signals a dangerous moment in American democracy,” and raises questions about free-speech rights.

    Both Trump and the Justice Department filed briefs opposing Cohen’s petition.

    Cohen had attempted to claim a private right of action under the Supreme Court’s 1971 precedent in Bivens v. Six Unknown Federal Narcotics Agents.

    While that case upheld a cause of action related to unlawful search and seizures, Cohen asked the Supreme Court to consider whether it should apply to his circumstances.

    He alleged that he faced “retaliation for his refusal to waive his right to free speech.”

    U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar similarly raised concerns about separation of powers and argued that Cohen could have pursued alternative remedies such as the Bureau of Prisons’ Administrative Remedy Program.

    Trump told the court that Cohen’s attempt to expand the precedent under Bivens would disrupt the constitution’s separation of powers. He added that the doctrine of presidential immunity presented an “insurmountable obstacle” to Cohen’s claim.

    Trump attorney Alina Habba said the Supreme Court had correctly denied Cohen’s petition, and “he must finally abandon his frivolous and desperate claims.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 18:00

  • Left McTriggered After Trump Does Fun Publicity Stunt
    Left McTriggered After Trump Does Fun Publicity Stunt

    On Sunday, Donald Trump poked fun at Kamala Harris’ dubious claim that she ‘worked at McDonald’s and made fries,’ by going to a McDonald’s and making fries, plus working the drive-thru.

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    Ding, fries are done!

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    Memes have been made.

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    McTriggered!

    While most on the right thought it was a fun pre-election publicity stunt, it really triggered the left – which didn’t know what to do.

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    The sourpusses even posted a gotcha! Suggesting that because the McDonald’s closed for Trump’s event, the whole thing was staged. Well, duh. The guy was only almost assassinated twice (or thrice) and this is for fun.

    Reeeee!!!

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    Tim Walz had jazz hands of fury – and despite all the lies, insisting that Kamala Harris actually worked there. We’re sure he’s not lying this time too.

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    Even Matt Drudge opined (2016 Matt, blink twice if you need help).

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    Hilariously, The Atlantic‘s David Frum revealed he doesn’t know the difference between grilling and frying (and earned a nice ratio).

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    This is how you know the publicity stunt worked…

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 17:45

  • Quantum Computer 'Threat' To Crypto Is Exaggerated… For Now
    Quantum Computer ‘Threat’ To Crypto Is Exaggerated… For Now

    Authored by Andrew Singer via CoinTelegraph.com,

    A report that Chinese researchers have employed a D-Wave quantum computer to breach encryption algorithms used to secure bank accounts, top-secret military data and crypto wallets is at first glance a matter for deep concern. 

    “This is the first time that a real quantum computer has posed a real and substantial threat to multiple full-scale SPN [Substitution-Permutation Network] structured algorithms in use today,” wrote Shanghai University scientists in a peer-reviewed paper, according to the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on Oct. 11.

    The paper talks about breaking RSA (Rivest-Shamir-Adleman) encryption, one of the oldest and widely used public-key cryptosystems.  

    Details about the latest research have been slow to emerge so it’s difficult to say for sure how dire the threat is to cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. The paper had yet to be released in English as of Oct. 11, and researchers weren’t taking any interviews, supposedly “due to the sensitivity of the topic,” according to SCMP.

    But if the researchers’ results hold up, and can be duplicated by others, “it is a step forward” in the evolution of quantum computing, Marek Narozniak, a physicist with a background in quantum computing, and founder at sqrtxx.com, told Cointelegraph.

    Would it mean that the password-protection mechanisms used in many industries, including banking and cryptocurrencies, might soon be vulnerable, as many fear, however?

    “From the paper many details are missing, so it is difficult to provide a definite answer” with regard to its possible significance, Massimiliano Sala, Full professor and head of the Laboratory of Cryptography at the University of Trento, told Cointelegraph.

    Much depends on whether the scientists were able to break RSA keys of a certain size — i.e., keys as large as those used by banks to secure customer’s savings and checking accounts today. “There is no evidence of that,” said Sala.

    But if they had, it would be “huge,” he said.

    Quantum computing, (QC), which uses atomic “spin” instead of an electrical charge to represent its binary 1’s and 0’s, is evolving at an exponential rate, many believe. But full purpose QC devices have yet to emerge at scale.

    The D-Wave machines used in Shanghai, sometimes called quantum annealers, are really proto-quantum computers, or forerunners, capable of conducting specialized tasks only. 

    D-Wave 2X 1000 Qubit quantum annealing processor chip mounted and wire-bonded in its sample holder. Source: Mwjohnson0

    However, if and when universal quantum computers do emerge, they could threaten the elliptic curve cryptographic structure which has served Bitcoin and other cryptos very well until now, some worry.

    It could be only a matter of time before quantum computers will be able to identify the enormous prime numbers that are key constituents of a BTC private key — assuming no countermeasures are developed.  

    “However, we must keep in mind that D-Wave quantum computers are not general-purpose quantum computers,” added Sala. Moreover, D-Wave’s “ability to factor RSA keys was already established by one of my colleagues a few months ago,” he said.

    Takaya Miyano, professor of mechanical engineering at Japan’s Ritsumeikan University, also questioned the significance of the scientists’ results — and along similar lines as Sala. 

    The length of the integer that the Shanghai researchers factorized, 22 bits, “is much shorter than that of actual RSA integers, which is usually equal to or greater than 1024 bits, e.g, 1024, 2048, and maximally 4096 bits,” he told Cointelegraph.

    Moreover, “the D-wave machine is a kind of quantum simulator for solving optimization problems, not a universal computer,” Miyano added. It isn’t clear that it would be able to conduct rapid factorization of large RSA integers in the real world.

    Why prime factorization is important

    Factorization is a mathematical process where a number can be written as the product of smaller whole numbers. For instance, 12 can be factorized, or written, as 3 x 2 x 2. Efficient prime number factorization has been called “the holy grail” of breaking a RSA public-key cryptosystem.

    RSA is more than encryption, after all. It is also a ‘key’ generation scheme that typically involves multiplying large prime numbers. Two parties — a bank and its customer, for example — typically receive a set of prime numbers that are used to compute their private and public keys, Narozniak explained.

    The process of actually generating private and public keys is complex, but if ‘p’ and ‘q’ are prime numbers, and ‘n’ is the product of those two prime numbers (i.e., n = p x q), then one can say that p and q are related to the private keys and n is related to the public key. 

    The basic mathematical principle behind RSA encryption is that while it is easy to multiply two prime numbers, it is very difficult to do the reverse, i.e., find the two prime numbers that are factors of a product — and this becomes harder as the numbers get larger. 

    Sala’s University of Trento colleagues earlier this year used a quantum annealer to uncover the two prime factors of the number 8,219,999 (i.e., 32,749 and 251) “which, to the best of our knowledge is the largest number which was ever factorized by means of a quantum device,” wrote the researchers.

    In Sala’s view the recent Shanghai University paper is significant “only if they have found a way to factorize huge numbers.” 

    The University of Trento researchers also cited the great potential of quantum computing to solve complex problems that have long remained “intractable” for classical computers. 

    Prime factorization — i.e., the problem of breaking down a number into its prime factors — in particular, “is a good candidate to be effectively solved by quantum computing, in particular by quantum annealing.” 

    Crypto keys are safe — For now

    Let’s assume, however, that the Shanghai scientists really did find a way to use a quantum annealer to successfully breach cryptographic algorithms, including those like SPN which are foundational for the advanced encryption standard (AES) widely used in the military and finance. What would that do to the crypto industry?

    “Symmetric ciphers such as AES-128 used for data encryption are not vulnerable to this kind of attack as they do not rely on number factorization,” said Narozniak.

    There might be exceptions, of course, like if the cipher is a shared secret derived via RSA-based key exchange protocol, he continued. But “properly encrypted passwords and other data in general will remain encrypted even if the approach presented in that research scales up and becomes widely available — and if true,” he said. 

    A history of unproven RSA claims

    Narozniak cautioned against rushing to conclusions. “Before we re-evaluate our level of optimism, let us wait for someone to repeat and confirm this result,” he said. “Claims of breaking RSA are not so uncommon.” 

    In early 2023, for instance, Chinese researchers said they had factorized a 48-bit key on a 10-qubit quantum computer, a claim “which still has not been peer reviewed,” commented Narozniak. 

    “And two years before that Claus Schnorr, who is an authority in the community, made an honest mistake and claimed RSA to be broken. I personally take such big claims with a grain of salt.”

    According to Sala: “Breaking RSA would mean that a lot of software should be updated, but not drastically changed,” because there are already-implemented standards that provide alternatives including elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), used to secure Bitcoin. He added:  

    “More drastic would be the impact on credit cards and the like, which would have to be withdrawn massively, to radically change their software.” 

    One might wonder why cryptocurrencies are not using RSA widely — as banks do. The crypto industry favors elliptic-curve cryptography because ECC makes it possible to achieve the same level of security with much smaller keys using fewer bytes, said Narozniak. This opens up digital space which enables chains to grow faster. 

    Is Buterin’s ‘hard fork’ solution viable?

    Elsewhere, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin suggested in March that a “hard fork” could subvert a quantum attack on Ethereum were it to arise. “We are already well-positioned to make a pretty simple recovery fork to deal with such a situation,” he posted on Oct. 17. Users might have to download new wallet software, but few would lose funds.

    Is it really so easy, though? “I disagree that such a hard fork would be ‘simple,’” said Narozniak. And looking ahead, quantum-safe signatures, such ML-DSA, would need to have significantly larger keys and signatures compared with those used today. This could slow on-chain performance and raise gas fees, he suggested.

    Executing a hard fork would “be complex, require broad community consensus, and may not restore all lost assets or fully repair trust in the network,” Samuel Mugel, chief technology officer at Multiverse Computing, told Cointelegraph. “Therefore, it’s crucial to implement quantum-resistant cryptography before such an attack happens to avoid this situation.”

    Safeguards are needed

    “We most certainly need to revisit our current cybersecurity defenses,” Christos Makridis, associate research professor at Arizona State University and CEO/Founder of Dainamic, told Cointelegraph. 

    More attention needs to be paid to network capacity loads (i.e., defending against distributed denial of service attacks) and to passwords (e.g., to protect data from hackers) in a world with quantum computing. He further observed:

    “One of the emerging views is that the expansion of quantum computing and generative AI has enabled offensive cyber more than defensive.”

    The industry can’t become complacent. “Dangerous quantum computers will come, it’s just a matter of time,” Sala warned. 

    “The blockchain world must get ready as soon as possible, by planning a roadmap towards a transition to post-quantum cryptography,” he added, developing safeguards able to resist attack even by a “fully-fledged quantum adversary.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 17:40

  • New Israeli Air Raids Unleash Giant Fireballs, Chaos In Beirut
    New Israeli Air Raids Unleash Giant Fireballs, Chaos In Beirut

    (1736ET): Before and after midnight (local time), huge Israeli strikes are once again rocking southern Beirut suburbs, with reports of large strikes hitting very near hospitals. 

    Early videos of some of tonight’s airstrikes show absolutely massive fireballs expanding high over the city, amid another night of panic on the ground, and as hospitals are filling up.

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    Local media has indicated at least 13 raids in the last hours, and Lebanon’s health ministry said that at least four have been killed in the fresh attacks:

    Lebanon’s Health Ministry says one of those killed was a child.

    Twenty-four people also were wounded in an initial toll following the Israeli attack near Rafik Hariri Hospital in southern Beirut, the ministry said.

    Sahel Hospital in the southern suburbs of Beirut is also being threatened, with Israel’s military claiming that Hezbollah uses the facility to store cash and gold.

    Massive Monday night strikes, via X

    Al Jazeera has listed the following late-breaking updates as follows:

    • Israeli forces have bombed the vicinity of Rafik Hariri Hospital in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Lebanon’s National News Agency is reporting.
    • According to local media reports, Israeli air strikes have targeted three locations: Ozai, Jinah and Haret Hreik.
    • Lebanon’s Sahel General Hospital in Beirut’s southern suburbs is being evacuated after Israel claimed that Hezbollah has a bunker filled with cash under it, the hospital director says.
    • Hezbollah has released a statement saying it launched rockets at an Israeli army intelligence base near Tel Aviv.
    • The director of field hospitals at Gaza’s Health Ministry says Israel is targeting the three remaining medical facilities in northern Gaza.
    • The Israeli army spokesperson claims that a strike in Syria’s capital killed the commander of a Hezbollah unit who was responsible for the transfer of weapons from Iran.

    * * * 

    Israel on Sunday night began fresh, heavy airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs as well as in the Bekka Valley in the east of Lebanon, for the first time declaring it would target banks suspected of financing Hezbollah.

    “The air force will launch extensive strikes on targets in the southern suburb of Beirut, targeting Hezbollah-linked economic assets,” IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari said as strikes were underway. Buildings that belong to al-Qard al-Hassan Association are at the top of the list, identified by the Israelis as long associated with the Shia paramilitary group backed by Iran.

    Smoke rises from explosions near Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport, Oct. 20, 2024 in Beirut. CBS/Getty Images

    With at least 30 branches across Lebanon, and 15 Beirut locations in bustling neighborhood, al-Qard al-Hassan Association is also used by many Lebanese civilians.

    The US-sanctioned bank has been around since the 1980’s and is focused on providing services to Lebanon’s Shiite community, which is mostly concentrated in the south.

    “The purpose of the strike is to target the ability of Hezbollah to function both during the war but also afterwards to rebuild and to rearm the organization on the day after,” an Israeli military statement continued.

    Some dozen large airstrikes rocked Beirut’s southern suburbs last night, including one or more which were very near Beirut International Airport, reportedly targeting the bank branches.

    The bank has sought to assure its customers it has taken “all of the necessary procedures since the beginning of the war to safeguard your deposits and valuables and can confirm that you should not worry they are safe.”

    A regional analyst was quoted in The Wall Street Journal as follows:

    “The main loss for the people using its services will be the destruction of family gold they pawned in exchange for loans,” said Lina Khatib, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute and author of a study of Hezbollah’s influence networks.

    “But for as long as Hezbollah’s external financial operations remain active, including its involvement in illicit finance internationally, and as long as Iran continues to fund it, Al-Qard Al-Hassan’s clients will expect Hezbollah to be able to compensate them for their losses,” she said.

    The Lebanese Health Ministry said over the weekend that at least 2,464 Lebanese have been killed since hostilities began in Oct.2023; however, it remains unclear how many of that figure are combatants vs. civilians.

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    The whole region remains on edge awaiting Israel’s retaliation against Iran, which US intelligence has said is “almost certainly” going to happen. A Bloomberg note indicates:

    Oil prices bounce back from last week’s steep fall with Brent crude futures climbing 1.3% to around $74 a barrel. Traders are likely monitoring tensions in the Middle East after Israeli PM Netanyahu held a series of meetings with top security aides to discuss the next attack on Iran. Israel is discussing its attack on Iran after a Hezbollah drone exploded near Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private home at the weekend.

    Below are more regional developments via Newsquawk…

    • Israeli PM Netanyahu said a drone attack which targeted his home in northern Israel was a “grave mistake”, while he and his family were not at their house when the drone attack struck on Saturday and there were no casualties.
    • Israeli PM Netanyahu spoke with former US President Trump and told him that Israel considers the issues the US administration raises but will make decisions based on its national interests.
    • Israel’s military said it attacked Hezbollah’s intelligence HQ and weapons storage facilities in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Saturday. It was also reported that Israel conducted a fresh raid on the southern suburbs of Beirut on Sunday, as well as targeted the city of Tyre and the towns of Bir al-Salasil and Homine al-Fawqa in southern Lebanon.
    • Israeli military spokesperson had warned on Sunday that they would conduct targeted strikes on sites belonging to Hezbollah’s financial arm across Lebanon and urged Lebanese residents to evacuate areas near those facilities, while it was later reported that Israeli strikes hit branches of Hezbollah-linked bank in Beirut and Beqaa Valley, according to Times of Israel.
    • Hezbollah announced it conducted a rocket barrage at Beit Hillel base, while it was separately reported that Iraqi armed factions announced the targeting of an Israeli military site in the Golan with drones.
    • Israel gave the White House its demands for ending the war in Lebanon, while US President Biden’s envoy Amos Hochstein will visit Beirut on Monday to discuss a possible diplomatic solution with Lebanese officials, according to Axios. The report noted one Israeli demand is that IDF be allowed to engage in “active enforcement” to ensure Hezbollah doesn’t rearm and Israel also demands its air force have freedom of operation in Lebanese airspace, although a US official said it is highly unlikely Lebanon and the international community would agree to Israel’s conditions.
    • Iran’s Supreme Leader said Hamas leader Sinwar’s death will not halt the axis of resistance and Hamas will live on.
    • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi alluded to the US and warned that anyone who knows how and when Israel will attack Iran will be held accountable, according to Reuters.
    • US House Speaker Johnson said on Sunday that there would be a classified briefing related to leaked US intelligence on Israel-Iran, according to Reuters.
    • US Defence Secretary Austin said he would like to see Israel scale back on some of its strikes in and around Beirut, while he raised the issue about UNIFIL security with Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant. Furthermore, Austin reviewed the US defence posture and said he is relieved that PM Netanyahu is safe, while he said he couldn’t confirm reports that North Korean troops are in Russia and readying for combat in the Ukraine war, according to Reuters.
    • UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL said an Israeli army bulldozer demolished a watchtower and fence surrounding the UN site in southern Lebanon on Sunday, according to Reuters.
    • G7 defence ministers reaffirmed the importance of supporting UNIFIL and the Lebanese armed forces in their role of ensuring the stability and security of Lebanon, while they called on Iran to refrain from providing support to Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and other non-state actors. Furthermore, they called on Houthis to immediately cease their escalatory measures that increase regional instability and immediately release the vessel Galaxy Leader and its crew.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 17:36

  • A Media Beyond Caricature
    A Media Beyond Caricature

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

    CBS’s iconic 60 Minutes has had plenty of scandals and embarrassments in its long 57-year history, most notably the fake-but-accurate Dan Rather mess. Yet never has it found itself in greater disrepute than in 2024.

    Donald Trump, for good reason, recently declined to join 60 Minutes for its traditional election-year in-depth interviews of the two presidential candidates. Why?

    Last time he consented in 2020, anchor and interviewer Leslie Stahl attacked Trump’s accurate assertion that the Hunter Biden laptop (then in the possession of the FBI) was authentic—and authentically damning to Joe Biden’s presidential candidacy.

    Stahl falsely claimed the laptop “can’t be verified.” She further incorrectly asserted, “So this story about Hunter and his laptop, some repair shop found it; the source is Steve Bannon and Rudy Giuliani.” The New York Post, in fact, reported the story. The FBI did not deny it.

    Yet old Twitter and Facebook, under collaborating FBI tutelage and pressure, suppressed dissemination of the truth. Joe Biden’s then-advisor and now Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in conjunction with former interim CIA Director Michael Morrel, helped round up “51 former intelligence authorities” (among them Leon Panetta and both John Brennan and James Clapper, who had admitted previously of lying under oath to Congress) to claim falsely that the laptop had all the hallmarks of a Russian information gambit to warp the election.

    Joe Biden used the “expert” consensus to further lie in the last Biden-Trump debate that the laptop was cooked up by the Russians. And neither CBS, the “intelligence authorities,” nor any of the Bidens have ever since apologized.

    More recently, CBS got caught selectively editing the 60 Minutes interview with Kamala Harris, cutting and pasting an incoherent Harris response to lessen her embarrassing word salad. And in a subsequent interview with House Speaker Mike Johnson, the network once again edited and pruned his answers, but in contrast, on this occasion, to make him seem far less persuasive.

    In yet another current CBS interview with author Ta-Nehisi Coates, network host Tony Dokoupil honestly questioned Coates about his new, one-sided, anti-Israeli book The Message. The result was that the left-wing icon Coates was almost immediately revealed to be abjectly ignorant of the Middle East, unapologetically biased, and completely uninterested in any viewpoint other than his own partisan prejudices.

    Yet what followed proved yet another network embarrassment. An internal CBS division with the eerie Orwellian title of “CBS News Race and Culture Unit” attacked Dokoupil for not providing “context” for Coates’s self-condemnatory and embarrassing interview. The subtext was that CBS, under pressure from woke zealots, simply disowned Dokoupil and sought to subject him to correct thought training. His apparent crime was not insisting on different—softball—journalistic standards for woke black authors like Coates. In other words, CBS blamed Dokoupil for revealing Coates to be a fool on the air.

    The network further diminished its eroding reputation yet again through the unprofessional conduct of recent moderators Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan during the J.D. Vance/Tim Walz vice presidential debate.

    After the earlier ABC-sponsored debate between presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, in which the moderators became partisan fact-checkers (and often wrongly so) of Trump alone and drilled him on follow-up questions in a way not accorded Harris, CBS promised not to repeat such a network embarrassment. So, it pledged not to fact-check the two vice presidential candidates and instead to present a “fair” moderation of the event.

    Instead, the CBS moderators were even more patently one-sided than the prior disastrous ABC performance. The two broke their own pre-debate rules by indeed fact-checking. But, even worse, they fact-checked Vance alone. And, once again, did so erroneously in a way that only exposed their unprofessional partiality.

    Given the prior ABC debate sham, CBS was supposedly determined not to turn off the public with more moderator partisan distortions. Instead, the network proved that if it was a question of further eroding its professional brand or helping elect the Harris/Walz progressive ticket, then CBS would predictably choose to jettison its reputation to further the progressive cause.

    Just as CBS is no longer the network television standard, so too has the current generation of partisans done their best to sully the New York Times. Within just a few days, the Times embarrassed itself in ways similar to the partisanship so toxic at CBS.

    The Times just published an op-ed, “65 Doctors, Nurses and Paramedics: What We Saw in Gaza.” What followed were testimonials from medical officials and doctors in Gaza with truly harrowing stories of Israel’s collateral damage and the shooting of civilians, accompanied by X-ray photos of small children with IDF bullets allegedly lodged in their bodies and heads.

    But even if one was not aware of the fables promulgated by Hamas and the history of propagandistic attacks on Israel, and even if there was no corroboration of how the victims died and under what conditions, a novice might have sensed that something was not quite right with the evidentiary X-rays.

    Experts pointed out that the embedded bullets in the scans appeared pristine, without any fragmentation after entering skulls or midriff sections. There were no apparent entry and exit wounds on the images—suggesting either that it was unlikely the bullets came from IDF-issued high-velocity weapons or that the X-rays might simply have been rephotographed with IDF bullets placed beneath them. In any case, the New York Times did not cite any expert outside reviewer to authenticate the scans.

    Recently, the New York Times again rushed to partisan judgment to persuade the public that current charges of abject plagiarism by presidential candidate Vice President Harris were baseless. Accusations arose that Harris and her coauthor in a past book on crime had plagiarized a number of sources multiple times.

    Yet the Times claimed the copying was minor and did not rise to the level of actionable plagiarism. It “proved” this by quoting a plagiarism “expert,” Jonathan Bailey, who, it implied, had consulted all the alleged plagiarism passages.

    But once the public saw just a few of the passages in question, almost immediately it concluded otherwise: that Harris and her co-author were indeed plagiarists. That forced Bailey, the original Times expert, to reconsider his initial opinion: “At the time, I was unaware of a full dossier with additional allegations, which led some to accuse the New York Times of withholding that information from me. However, the article clearly stated that it was my ‘initial reaction’ to those allegations, not a complete analysis.”

    Bailey then concluded that Harris had indeed committed plagiarism but not “maliciously” so. Once again, the Times had not verified its assertions before publication, and once again it had erred on the side of its known partisanship.

    The Times and CBS are just a small example of current once-prestige outlets—such as ABC (cf. its moderators during the Harris-Trump presidential debate) and NPR (that just retracted its scurrilous charges against journalist Rich Lowry)—who have consistently abused the public’s trust for the partisan benefit of progressives or their causes.

    In sum, the trust and prestige that took prior generations of journalists decades to earn have been thrown away in just a few years by incompetents and partisans—on the ancient, flawed principle that the supposedly superior moral ends justify any means necessary to achieve them.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 17:00

  • Democrat Atlantic City Mayor Charged With Beating His Daughter
    Democrat Atlantic City Mayor Charged With Beating His Daughter

    Democrat Atlantic City mayor Mayor Marty Small Sr. and his wife, La’Quetta Small have been charged with physically harming their daughter on “multiple occasions” last winter, according to a new report from Philly Voice. 

    The pair are facing charges of child endangerment, assault and terroristic threats, the report says. 

    Attorneys for the mayor and his wife call the charges “headline-grabbing” due to his “high profile status”, though to be fair, prior to this report…we’d never heard of him. 

    Attorney Ed Jacobs said: “We are confident that fair-minded jurors will quickly see that parenting struggles are not criminal events, and will agree on the innocence of both Marty and La’Quetta.”

    Atlantic County prosecutors accused Small of beating his 16-year-old daughter with a broomstick, slamming her down stairs, and punching her during family disputes in December and January. His wife is accused of punching their daughter, dragging her by the hair, hitting her with a belt, and striking her face.

    The incidents allegedly arose from conflicts over the girl’s boyfriend, who provided prosecutors with photos, videos, and evidence of the abuse and resulting bruises.

    Photo: USA Today

    Gov. Phil Murphy said through a spokesperson that Small should “consider whether he can continue effectively serving the people of Atlantic City as Mayor.”

    The Philly Voice report says that after prosecutors searched the Smalls’ home in March, Mayor Marty Small held a press conference – of course suggesting the investigation might have “political and racial motivations”.

    Constance Days-Chapman, Small’s former campaign manager and principal of Atlantic City High School, is charged with failing to report child abuse and obstructing justice.

    She allegedly did not notify child protection authorities after the Smalls’ daughter disclosed the abuse to her. Days-Chapman pleaded not guilty at her arraignment last week.

    If only Smalls had the same commitment to discipline with cleaning up Atlantic City…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 16:40

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Oct 21

Today’s News 21st October 2024

  • Escobar: The Geoeconomic Drivers Of SCO-BRICS Synergy
    Escobar: The Geoeconomic Drivers Of SCO-BRICS Synergy

    Authored by Pepe Escobar,

    One week before the absolutely crucial BRICS summit in Kazan, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held a summit in Islamabad.

    This convergence is important in more ways than one.

    The summit in Pakistan involved the Council of the Heads of Government of SCO member-states. Out of it came a joint communique stressing the need to implement decisions taken at the SCO annual summit last July in Astana: that’s where the heads of state actually gathered, including new SCO full member Iran.

    China, following the rotating SCO chairmanship of close ally Pakistan – now under a dodgy administration fully endorsed by the military goons who keep ultra-popular former Prime Minister Imran Khan in jail – has officially taken over the SCO presidency for 2024 to 2025. And the name of game, predictably, is business.

    The motto of the Chinese presidency is – what else – “action”. So Beijing took no time to start promoting further, faster synergy between the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), whose predominant power is Russia.

    Cue to the Russia-China strategic partnership fast advancing trans-Eurasia economic corridors. And that brings us to a couple of key connectivity subplots featured prominently at the Islamabad summit.

    Riding the steppe

    Let’s start with the fascinating Steppe Road – which is a Mongolian idea crystalizing as an upgraded economic corridor. Mongolia is an observer at the SCO, not a full member: reasons for it are quite complex. Still, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin raved about the Steppe Road with his SCO interlocutors.

    The Mongolians came up with the idea of a Taliin Zam (“Steppe Road” in Mongolian) back in 2014, containing no less than “Five Great Passages”: a maze of transport and energy infrastructure to be built with investments totaling at least $50 billion.

    These include a 997 km-long transnational expressway linking Russia-China; 1,100 km of electrified railway infrastructure; the expansion of the – already running – Trans-Mongolian Railway from Sukhbaatar in the north to Zamyn-Uud in the south; and Pipelineistan of course, as in new oil and gas pipelines linking Altanbulag in the north to Zamyn-Uud.

    Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai was as enthusiastic as Mishustin, announcing that Mongolia has already finalized 33 Steppe Road projects.

    These projects happen to neatly align with Russia’s own Trans-Eurasian Corridor – a connectivity maze which includes the Trans-Siberian Railway, the Trans-Manchurian Railway, the Trans-Mongolian Railway and the Baikal Amur Mainline (BAM).

    Back in July at the SCO summit, Putin and Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh spent quite some time discussing the finer strategic points of Eurasian logistics.

    Then Putin visited Mongolia in early September for the 85th anniversary of the joint Soviet-Mongolian victory over the Japanese at the Khalkhin Gol River. Putin was received as a rock star.

    All that makes perfect strategic sense. The Russia-Mongolia border is 3,485 km-long. The USSR and the Mongolian People’s Republic established diplomatic relations over a century ago, in 1921. They have been working together on key projects such as the Trans-Mongolian gas pipeline – yet another Russia-China connection; modernization of the Ulaanbaatar Railway joint venture; Russia supplying fuel to the new Chinggis Khaan International Airport; and Rosatom building a nuclear power plant.

    Mongolia harbors the proverbial wealth of natural resources, from rare earth minerals (reserves may reach an astonishing 31 million tons) to uranium (prospective reserves of 1.3 million tons). Even as it applies what is called the Third Neighbor approach, Mongolia needs to maintain a careful balancing act, as it is on the radar non-stop of the US and the EU, with the collective West pressing  for less Eurasia cooperation with Russia-China.

    Naturally Russia holds a major strategic advantage over the West, as Moscow not only treats Mongolia as an equal partner but can provide its neighbor’s needs when it comes to energy security.

    What makes it all even more enticing is that Beijing envisions the Steppe Road as “highly consistent” with BRI, complete with the proverbial enthusiasm hailing the synergy and “win-win cooperation” between both projects.

    This is not a military alliance

    Complementing the Steppe Road drive, Chinese Premier Li Qiang went to Pakistan not only for the SCO summit but with a connectivity priority: advancing the next stage of the $65 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), arguably BRI’s flagship project.

    Li and his Pakistani counterpart Sharif finally inaugurated the strategically crucial, Chinese-financed Gwadar International Airport in southwest Balochistan – against all odds plus intermittent raids by CIA-funded separatist Baloch guerrillas.

    CPEC is an extremely ambitious multi-level infrastructure development project encompassing several nodes starting from the China-Pakistan border in the Khunjerab pass, down through the – upgraded – Karakoram highway and descending south across Balochistan all the way to the Arabian Sea.

    In the future CPEC may even include a gas pipeline from Gwadar going up north all the way to Xinjiang – further easing China’s reliance on energy transported across the Strait of Malacca, which could be blocked by the Hegemon in no time.

    The pre-BRICS SCO summit in Pakistan once again reiterated the synergy of several aspects concerning both multilateral bodies. SCO member states – from the Central Asians to India and Pakistan – overwhelmingly understand Russian reasoning when it comes to the inevitability of the Special Military Operation (SMO).

    The Chinese position, officially, is a marvel of equilibrium and suave ambiguity; even as Beijing stresses the support for the principle of national sovereignty, it has not condemned Russia; and at the same time it has never directly blamed NATO for the de facto war.

    Geoeconomic connectivity is very much the priority for top SCO powers and strategic partners Russia-China. Since the early 2000s the SCO has evolved from counter-terrorism to  geoeconomic cooperation. Once again in Islamabad it was clear that the SCO will not turn into a military alliance in an anti-NATO mold.

    What matters most now for all members, apart from geoeconomic cooperation, is to combat the West’s war of terror – bound to go on overdrive with the imminent, humiliating failure of Project Ukraine.

    A mechanism that could further solidify the SCO and pave the way for a merger with BRICS further on down the – rocky – road is the Chinese concept of Global Security Initiative, which happens to dovetail with the Russian concept presented to – and rejected by – the US in December 2021, only two months before the inevitability of the SMO.

    China proposes to “uphold the principle of indivisible security” as well as “build a balanced, effective and sustainable security architecture” and firmly oppose “the building of national security on the basis of insecurity of other countries”. That’s something that every member of the SCO – not to mention BRICS – subscribes to.

    In a nutshell, indivisibility of security as envisaged by Russia-China amounts to the de facto application of the UN Charter. The result would be peace on a global level – and by implication the death knell to NATO.

    While indivisibility of security still can’t be adopted Eurasia-wide – as the Hegemon deploys a war of terror in several fronts to undermine the emergence of a multi-nodal world – win-win cross-border connectivity keeps on rolling, from the Steppe Road to New Silk Road corridors.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/21/2024 – 02:00

  • The Strategic Consequences Of Kamala Harris' Incompetence
    The Strategic Consequences Of Kamala Harris’ Incompetence

    Authored by James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer via Americvan Greatness,

    Vice President Kamala Harris’s disastrous performance in her interview with Fox News’s Bret Baier was notable for two reasons.

    • First, to the degree that there was any discussion of foreign national security threats to America, Harris only mentioned Iran. She failed to mention the disastrous war in Ukraine, where more than a million are dead, and the threat of nuclear war exists. Harris failed to reconcile her administration’s billions in dollars of military and civilian aid to Ukraine and policy actions against Russia for the most significant military threat in Europe since the end of World War Two. Worse though was her failure to make any reference to the existential threat from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

    • Second, her performance in response to salient questions—ones that had the chance to inform American voters—was an amalgamation of incoherence, anger, and deception that revealed a candidate who is uniquely unsuited to be president of the United States. The fact that she is the Democratic candidate and might become president is alarming to America’s friends, as it is welcomed by America’s enemies.

    In the interview, she had the opportunity to discuss her analysis of threats to America. While Iran is certainly a regional danger and a threat to the U.S. and its allies in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, it pales in comparison to the existential threat of the CCP. Indeed, Iran and Russia would be far less of a concern if the CCP were not given a free hand to back these aggressor nations. That the PRC is a grave and fundamental threat is revealed by its hyper-aggressive policies against the American people, U.S. allies like Japan and the Philippines, and partners like India and Taiwan.

    An example of the CCP’s threatening military posture was put on display when Exercise Joint Sword 2024B launched on October 14, in which People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces encircled Taiwan to coerce its new leader, President Lai Ching-te, into a posture of subservience to the PRC. Thus far, those coercive attempts have failed. But Joint Sword 2024B revealed three aspects of the growing PRC threat. First, it showed the increasing capabilities of the PRC. Second, it demonstrated the ever-increasing penetrations of Taiwanese air and seaspace in an effort to normalize those violations and mask the actual invasion when it comes. Third, the first participation of the Chinese Coast Guard in the encirclement of Taiwan occurred.

    • First, with respect to the increased capabilities of the PLA Navy, it should be noted that their first aircraft carrier, Chinese Navy Ship (CNS) Liaoning/CV-16, conducted 90 fixed-wing take-offs and recoveries and 50 more from their embarked helicopters during their operations in the exercise. That is 140 sorties from a PLA Navy aircraft carrier in just one day. By any measure, the PLA Navy’s carrier aviation capabilities are now approaching U.S. Navy aircraft carrier air wing levels in terms of the number of sorties. It is the case that PLAN aircraft have a more limited range and weapons capacity than their U.S. Navy counterparts, due to the Liaoning’s ski-ramp launch, but the fact remains that within just two years, the Liaoning has gone from launching an average of just 30 sorties a day in 2022 to a 140 today. That is a real strategic trendline that presidential candidate Harris demonstrated no awareness or strategy to counter.

    • Second, regarding PLA incursions into Taiwan’s air and seaspace, exercise Joint Sword 2024B provides another inflection point in the PRC’s dramatic transformation of the military status quo in the cross-strait environment. During the exercise, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported that it detected a total of 153 PLA aircraft, 14 PLAN ships, and 12 Coast Guard ships operating around Taiwan and that 111 of those aircraft crossed the centerline of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zones from the west, southwest, and east. To put that into perspective, from 1954 to 2020, PLA aircraft only crossed the centerline four times. This pattern of PLA air force incursions across the centerline began in earnest in 2022 when the PRC’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the PRC no longer recognized the centerline—a clear violation of the previous agreements between Beijing, Taipei, and Washington to not forcibly alter the status quo. Yet since then, and now with exercise Joint Sword 2024B, the Biden-Harris administration has made no mention of this hyper-aggressive behavior by Beijing or taken any actions to rectify it.

    • Third, the Joint Sword 2024B exercise was unique in that it demonstrated the use of non-PLA ships from the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) in this PLA-led exercise. Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense reported up to 17 CCGs were detected operating in the waters off Taiwan, or as the PRC’s Global Times noted, the “CCG conducted multi-unit, multi-formation, and multi-subject drills around the island of Taiwan, focusing on strengthening the control network around the island.” The implications of these unprecedented actions by the CCG are to demonstrate that the CCP’s strategy to bring Taiwan under its control, either by blockade or an outright invasion, will use the entirety of the PRC’s assets—a whole of government effort. These facts at sea demonstrate that the PRC’s 2019 declaration of a “People’s War” against the United States is not just propaganda but is advancing in tangible ways.

    Americans need to understand the scope and scale of the CCP’s grand strategy as evidenced by the PLA Navy and the CCG’s demonstrated actions during exercise Joint Sword 2024B. The evidence is undeniable: the CCP intends for the PRC to become the dominant naval force, not just in Asia but across the globe.

    This reality comes against the backdrop of a Biden-Harris administration that keeps downsizing the size and capabilities of the U.S. Navy.

    So, when Bret Baier asks candidate Harris what America’s number one foreign adversary is and there is no mention of the PRC, Americans know this candidate is not competent to assume the office of the Presidency. Americans need to pay attention because U.S. national security is on a knife’s edge—to the U.S., the CCP is a hyper-aggressive regime that is determined to realize its grand strategic objective of dominance. Yet Harris displays no strategic gravitas. She evinces no evidence of the seriousness of the situation or of an understanding that deterrence of the CCP’s hyper-aggression is on her shoulders—let alone having a plan to address this threat.

    Deterrence of the CCP is everything. If it fails, this country will be at war with the PRC. Harris appears oblivious to the demands and requirements of deterrence. Accordingly, before the PRC blockades or invades Taiwan or launches an attack against the Philippines in the South China Sea, Americans must have a president sitting behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office who has the knowledge, experience, and courage to prepare our nation for the demands of deterrence of the CCP’s aggression. It must have a president who signals in stark and no uncertain terms to the CCP that their aggression is certain to fail—and so they had better not try it in the first place. A president who not only can talk tough but has the wherewithal to rebuild the U.S. deterrent. The catechism of deterrence is straightforward: weakness invites aggression; strength deters it. Americans must elect a president who understands this catechism and so defends our nation from all threats—most especially from the existential threat of the PRC.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 23:55

  • Left McTriggered After Trump Does Fun Publicity Stunt
    Left McTriggered After Trump Does Fun Publicity Stunt

    On Sunday, Donald Trump poked fun at Kamala Harris’ dubious claim that she ‘worked at McDonald’s and made fries,’ by going to a McDonald’s and making fries, plus working the drive-thru.

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    Ding, fries are done!

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    Memes have been made.

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    McTriggered!

    While most on the right thought it was a fun pre-election publicity stunt, it really triggered the left – which didn’t know what to do.

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    The sourpusses even posted a gotcha! Suggesting that because the McDonald’s closed for Trump’s event, the whole thing was staged. Well, duh. The guy was only almost assassinated twice (or thrice) and this is for fun.

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    Tim Walz had jazz hands of fury – and despite all the lies, insisting that Kamala Harris actually worked there. We’re sure he’s not lying this time too.

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    Even Matt Drudge opined (2016 Matt, blink twice if you need help).

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    Hilariously, The Atlantic‘s David Frum revealed he doesn’t know the difference between grilling and frying (and earned a nice ratio).

    This is how you know the publicity stunt worked…

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 23:20

  • Wall Street Going "All-In On Trump"
    Wall Street Going “All-In On Trump”

    Matt Drudge’s slide into mainstream media obscurity has been one of the more remarkable events of the post-Trump era, yet – like an insane uncle locked up in the attic – few would bring it up in polite conversation (especially since so little is known about what caused Drudge’s striking U-turn in his one-time embrace of Trump). However, his tweet (or post) from last week that according to Wall Street, Kamala had a 72 chance to win (since deleted)…

    … prompted us to respond.

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    We were the first, but hardly last, and shortly after our response to Drudge, both Goldman and JPMorgan chimed in, with reports that validated our criticism of Drudge’s naive – and dead wrong – claim.

    Later that day, JPMorgan’s closely followed Positioning Intelligence team published a must read report (available to pro subs), in which John Schlegel summarized the recent hedge fund positioning rather simply: “all-in on Trump themes.“

    This is how the JPM trader summarizes the findings of his report:

    As odds of a Trump presidency and Red Wave have increased over the past few weeks, we’ve seen themes that are perceived to be Republican Winners (JPREPWIN) outperform Democratic Winners (JPDEMWIN) by ~7% over the past month. Crypto stocks and small caps have performed better, while Renewables have underperformed. In addition, the wider US equity market continues to make new ATHs and positioning appears to be elevated. Based on the thematic shifts, historical returns around elections, and elevated positioning, there’s room for a bit of disappointment and reversal in coming weeks if odds start to shift the other way.

    In other words, the “smart market” is increasingly going all-in on a Trump victory.

    Below we excerpt the main highlights from the report (much more in the full report available to professional subs):

    • 1. All in on Trump Themes? Hedge Fund flows have shown a strong preference for Republican themes with Rep Winners (JPREPWIN) bought over the past few weeks, putting positioning near ~2yr highs, while Dem Winners (JPDEMWIN) were sold throughout the year and positioning at multi-year low. The relative Rep vs. Dem flows have shifted from -2z a few weeks ago to +2z over the past 10 days. Renewables (JP11RNEW, a clear proxy for a Dem win) have been sold a lot in the past couple weeks and positioning is turning more bearish again.

    • Crypto stocks have seen volatile flows, though buying lately has not been as strong as it was in mid-July.

    • 2. Flows Turning Positive & Positioning Relatively High Ahead of Election (vs. Prior Cycles). HF and ETF flows have been turning more positive lately and 4 week HF net flows have shifted materially from -2z in early Sep to +1z most recently.

    • ETF flows tend to stay positive post elections and even in years when they’re very strong, but S&P returns are often very muted in Oct during election years since 1950 (avg +10bps with range of +2.6% to -2.7% (ex. 2008)).

    • Overall positioning level for US equities remains somewhat elevated (+1.0z, >90th %-tile) and in prior election years since 2012, both positioning and SPX returns have tended to trend lower in the weeks heading into the election.

    • 3. Small Caps and Momentum…What’s the Setup? Small Caps / Russell 2000 is perceived to rally if we get a Red Wave, but Russell 2000 futures positioning seems pretty elevated already (vs. more neutral prior to the July bump).

    • Looking at a 3yr z-score of net positioning, it’s at +2z already, in line with prior highs. ETF flows into small cap ETFs vs. the broader universe are neutral, though not as bearish as they were heading into the July rally, while HF net exp to Size factor is biased more towards Large on a multi-year basis, but not particularly so on a 12m basis.

    • Momentum tends to underperform in the 10d leading up to the election (and continues to decline on average in 3m post-election), but its performance has been quite correlated to the wider market.

    • HFs don’t appear to be running material net exposure to Momentum, but flows have shown a bias towards selling laggards lately

    * * *

    Turning to Goldman Sachs, we find a similar bias. As we noted last week, a Republican Sweep Scenario, has emerged as one of the bank’s preferred trades ahead of the elections. This is how Goldman put it:

    Long our Republican Policy Pair (GSP24REP), consisting of long Republican Policy Outperformers (GS24REPL, ex-commods version is GS24RLXC) vs short Republican Policy Underperformers (GS24REPS)

    • Buy GS24REPL 20Dec24 107% / 117% OTC call spread for 1.30%. 7.69x net leverage. 15% delta. 23 iv. Max loss premium paid.
    • Buy GS24RLXC 20Dec24 108% / 118% OTC call spread for 1.30%. 7.69x net leverage. 16% delta. 25 iv. Max loss premium paid.

    As shown below, the Goldman Republican victory pair trade discussed above just hit an all time high.

    Decomposed into its constituents indexes, we find that the Republican Victory basket just hit an all time high, while the Democrat Victory basket is back to Biden levels.

    In a new report from Goldman FICC vice president Vincent Mistretta (available here to pro subscribers), the trader confirms what we have said, namely that “positioning in markets leans toward Trump-win expressions. That has been the case since even before the recent run up in betting market odds for Trump.”  To help its clients, the bank has come up with a dashboard enumerating these aforementioned preconceived notions, and some trades that should perform well in scenarios that feel under-positioned, underappreciated or are anti-consensus.

    GS Trading Views:

    • Anshul Sehgal (Co-Head of Global Interest Rate Products Trading & Head of US Interest Rate Products) – Don’t have strong views or a robust framework for the election. It’s a binary event, and unclear what the policies/implications will be either way. Rates have been and will continue to be volatile. The market is pricing a 20bp breakeven move over the election, which seems a bit high, but not so high that you want to be short that convexity over the event. If you have a Republican sweep scenario, the night of the market probably doesn’t move a lot – it’s rates higher, risk assets higher initially, largely because what you would likely expect is that the Trump tax cuts get extended and there may well be more fiscal coming. We think the right area of the curve to be short is 2y2y. On Harris victory with divided Congress, we expect the curve to initially bull steepen, and for risk assets to trade weaker – which we would view as an opportunity to set up belly shorts.
    • Mark Salib/Fernando Alvarado Aguilar (FX Trading):  Many clients are long USDCNH via risk reversals to position for a possible Trump presidency, as there isn’t a strong case for USDCNH to depreciate significantly from here. We also like AUDJPY or USDJPY topside on a Trump win. On a potential Harris win we think USDMXN downside is one of the best trades, with favorable entry levels after the recent squeeze higher amid buying from all client types this week, including hedge funds to position for a possible Trump win (especially given Trump’s comments throughout the campaign on implementing tariffs) as well as CTA and real money buying. In a Harris scenario we think EURUSD may rally around 1.5%, but think the moves would be larger in USDMXN and would prefer to express the trade there.
    • Shawn Tuteja/Joseph Clyne (Equities Derivatives Trading/Index Trading) – Among a host of macro factors, we think that the run up in stocks, the collapse in implied vols, and the outperformance of RUT over NDX are partially due to the recent uptick in Trump odds, and a reversion of that move could reverse all three trends. Generally, we like owning year-end upside in SPX on a 12 vol handle which we think can carry flat/positive through the election while having spot up vol up beta on any sustained rally. On the sector side, we’ve seen the “Trump trades” from 2016 start to work, as this last leg higher in SPX has been driven by regional banks (KRE), large-cap banks (XLF), and energy. We’ve seen this buying come at the expense of AI in the past week or so. Interestingly, we’ve gotten a lot of questions from clients in the past 24 hours on best ways to “fade a Republican sweep,” thinking the odds and market pricing have run too far on this.
    • Nick Bartal (Oil Products Trading) – There is currently little positioning in oil directly related to the election. The conflict in the Middle East has shaken a short/low positioned oil market into having length. However, the consensus still remains that the oil balance will be heavy in 2025, which led to the short positioning coming into the Israel/Iran conflict rally in early October. While little direct positioning surrounding the election exists, a Trump victory would likely be day 1 bullish for oil, as he may strengthen sanctions on Iran.

    Much more in the Goldman note available to pro subscribers.

    * * *

    Taking a quick look at UBS, the bank has its own thematic pair trade, and writes that the recent surge in the “Republican Sweep” basket supported the S&P 500 rallying to an all-time high. Indeed, as shown below, the UBS Republican Win basket has trounced the Democrat Win having closed higher for 14 consecutive days! Also, UBS notes that the dramatic ascent in dollar has largely been driven by Chinese Yuan weakness thanks to the surge the Republican Sweep theme.

    Elsewhere, in a note from UBS trader Michael Romano, he writes that “the UBS Republican vs. Democrat election pair trade is up 15% month to date to fresh highs in virtually a straight line, suggesting the market has largely priced former President Donald Trump’s victory.” Romano adds that “the election repricing, driven primarily by banks and solar, coincided with a growth re-pricing following a strong payrolls and strong earnings, making it less clear whether the recent moves are election or growth driven.”

    His conclusion: “While the end result is the same, i.e. banks higher, cyclicals/consumer/growth oriented stocks higher, the more the repricing was driven by an actual growth re-pricing, the more upside there still is on a Trump win. As most of the moves followed bank earnings, with strong follow-through on consumer, my money is on a lot more upside to come on a Trump win.“

    * * *

    By now the big picture should be clear: whether due to his surge in online betting markets, or simply because Kamala’s honeymoon is dead and buried, there has been a rush of sentiment – by people who put money where their mouths – into the Trump Victory/Republican sweep camps, which also largely explains why stocks continue to make new all time highs day after day. However, if one takes a step back and asks a more neutral question without assuming the outcome, such as How will markets react to different US election outcomes?

    To help with the answer, we go to a recent note from Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos (available to pro subscribers), who took recently published Deutsche Bank Research economics estimates of the likely impact of different election outcomes and translated them in to a market reaction across asset classes with a specific focus on FX. The table is intended to capture the immediate market reaction to year-end rather than the long-term impact. Below are DB’s four main conclusions:

    • There is large variance of opinion on the likely market and growth outcomes within the DB team. This largely stems from uncertainty on three fronts: the fiscal outcomes in the event of divided government, the extent to which tariff policy is applied, the medium-term effects of supply side policies relating to regulation, immigration and energy. Even with full certainty on tariff policy for example, the countervailing growth-inflation impact of a negative supply shock creates great ambivalence.
    • The largest variation in fiscal policy and growth outcomes is likely under a Trump administration: a red sweep would likely lead to the largest deficits while divided government could lead to the smallest deficits via the revenue impact of tariffs. By extension, a Trump victory has the most potential to generate the largest market moves in both directions in bond markets.
    • The largest variation in relative growth differentials between the US and the rest of the world is likely under a Trump versus Harris administration, irrespective of the Congressional outcome, due to tariff policy. By extension, the FX market outcome is more clear cut than the bond market in the event of a Trump victory.
    • We see the most bullish dollar outcome as a red sweep and the most bearish dollar outcome on a blue sweep, but the magnitude of the moves is likely larger in the former. There is also likely to be a large degree of variation in market response across different currency pairs: we see the dollar rising across all currency pairs in a red sweep. We see the dollar strong but FX carry trades as most likely to suffer in a Trump victory without Congress. Asia FX is likely to rally the most in the event of a Harris victory without Congress, while the broadest dollar losses would likely be in a Blue Sweep, albeit more limited than the dollar gains in a Red Sweep. We see short EUR/CAD and long MXN/ZAR as the two most asymmetric trades in FX heading in to the election.

    Much more int he full notes from JPMorgan, Goldman, UBS and Deutsche Bank

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 22:45

  • West Point Selectively Censors Information In Violation Of Federal Law
    West Point Selectively Censors Information In Violation Of Federal Law

    Authored by Tony Lentini via RealClearDefense,

    Military.com recently carried a story on a West Point cadet facing charges for sexual harassment and sexual assault. The article named names, not just of this one cadet, but also of another cadet charged with sexual misconduct, an officer faculty member facing conduct-related charges and the garrison commander who was acquitted of impaired driving charges.

    Yet, after then-Superintendent Robert S. Caslen promised an investigation into why West Point permitted insubordinate communist cadet Spenser Rapone to graduate in 2016, the Army refused to release its findings on the spurious grounds of protecting Rapone’s privacy. This, despite the cadet’s public flouting of his Marxist political sympathies. Moreover, the promised but undelivered investigation was to be not of Rapone himself but of Caslen’s leadership or lack thereof in allowing an avowed communist to graduate. (Caslen subsequently resigned from his post-West-Point civilian job as president of the University of South Carolina for allegedly plagiarizing parts of a speech.)

    In another case, the fate of several cadets who overdosed on cocaine laced with fentanyl on Spring Break two years ago has never been publicly released, again on privacy grounds.  I have an outstanding Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request to determine their final disposition that has been pending for over a year now, despite federal law requiring a response within 20 working days.  West Point’s public affairs officer cited privacy laws as the reason for the Academy’s stonewalling, even though I specifically did not ask for their names, only their punishment.  But their names should be released, as well as their fate, since drug abuse is a serious offense under the Uniform Code of Military Justice and the cadets’ actions publicly discredited the United States Military Academy.

    Something rotten is going on at West Point and within our military.  Why are some names released while others are not?  Why are sexual misconduct allegations and related court filings publicly disseminated while cadet drug abuse and West Point administrative failures are covered up?

    My own FOIA request is now languishing in the “Initial Denial Authority” office of the Secretary of the Army at Ft. Belvoir, Virginia.  Repeated calls and emails to expedite the release of information as to the cocaine-fentanyl cadets’ final disposition have gone unanswered.  A classmate’s five-month-old FOIA request to obtain West Point documents related to the Superintendent’s stated intention to make the Cadet Honor Code “more aspirational” was summarily dismissed by that same office for clearly bogus reasons:  1) That the Academy’s FOIA office had supplied the requested materials (they had not, providing only non-germane items); and 2) That a document search had uncovered no such documents.  By “completely bogus,” I mean that they lied.

    West Point is a federally funded institution.  The Academy, and the military in general, are subject to federal laws, just as the rest of us are.  In fact, even more so, because the U.S. military traditionally and by law is subject to civilian control.  So, why are they permitted to pick and choose which laws to obey and which to willfully ignore?  Why are they permitted to ignore legitimate taxpayer requests for information?  Why the disparity between releasing names in sexual assault cases but not in drug cases and administrative failures?

    What is West Point covering up and why?  When and how will these lawbreaking officials be held to account?  And when is this once proud and honorable institution finally going to come clean?

    Tony Lentini is a 1971 West Point graduate and a founding board member of the MacArthur Society of West Point Graduates.  He served five years in the Army, attaining the rank of captain, and then spent his civilian career in the energy industry, ultimately serving as vice president of public and international affairs for two independent oil and gas exploration and production companies.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 22:10

  • Daniel Penny Subway Chokehold Trial Begins On Monday
    Daniel Penny Subway Chokehold Trial Begins On Monday

    Jordan Neely’s death in a crowded Manhattan subway car made worldwide headlines in May 2023, after bystander footage showed former Marine Daniel Penny restraining the erratic homeless man in a fatal chokehold. The case is finally set to go to trial, with jury selection beginning Monday.

    Penny, who has argued that he acted to protect fellow passengers from a menacing Neely, faces charges of second-degree manslaughter and criminally negligent homicide. Neely, a homeless Michael Jackson impersonator with a history of mental illness, died after Penny placed him in a chokehold for several minutes. According to prosecutors – who don’t have to prove intent to kill, Penny acted recklessly in causing Neely’s death.

    Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office has argued that Penny knew during the encounter that he might kill Neely, even if that was not his intention.

    They’ve cited testimony from a Marine trainer, who told the grand jury that Marines are taught that chokeholds — which are meant to be a “non-lethal” restraint — can sometimes be fatal.

    Prosecutors will also bring up evidence that Penny kept Neely in his chokehold for six minutes, continuing to restrain him even after the homeless man was no longer making purposeful movements.

    “The notion that death is not a foreseeable consequence of squeezing someone’s neck for six minutes is beyond the pale,” the DA’s office wrote in a November 2023 court filing. –NY Post

    Penny, a former infantry squad leader, has maintained that he did not intend to kill Neely, however Bragg’s office only has to convince a jury that Penny “recklessly” caused the death or disregarded a “substantial and unjustifiable risk of death” when he kept Neely in a chokehold for several minutes.

    Julie Rendelman, a former prosecutor, suggested that the prosecution will likely play video footage of the incident in slow motion to underscore Penny’s extended use of force. “I think they really need to break down the scene, literally, second-by-second,” she explained.

    According to Rendelman, prosecutors will make a huge mistake if they try to argue that Neely was “no danger to anyone” before Penny stepped in.

    “You may lose some of those jurors who have been on the train many times, threatened by different individuals on many occasions,” she told the Post. “They really have to approach it in a way that recognizes that, but also recognizes that he went too far.”

    The Defense’s Strategy

    Penny’s defense lawyers, Thomas Kenniff and Steven Raiser, are expected to argue that their client’s actions were justified, pointing to what they describe as Neely’s erratic and threatening behavior. Witnesses recalled Neely shouting that “someone is going to die today” and declaring that he was “ready to go to Rikers.”

    The defense is likely to question the medical examiner’s ruling that Penny’s chokehold directly caused Neely’s death. In an October 2023 motion, the attorneys argued that the examiner never provided specific evidence that Neely died from asphyxiation. Penny’s team may also attempt to introduce evidence of Neely’s drug use, pointing to toxicology reports that indicated Neely had the synthetic drug K2 in his system. While Penny’s lawyers acknowledge that the reports do not specify the quantity, they suggest that the drug could have been a contributing factor.

    Who Will Testify?

    According to the report, there will be several witnesses who were on the train, police officers who responded to the scene, and detectives who interviewed Penny. The city medical examiner’s office will likely present its findings, and the prosecution may call psychological experts to shed light on Penny’s mindset during the encounter.

    A looming question is whether Penny himself will take the stand. Legal observers are divided on the wisdom of this move, but Rendelman said, “I think he probably needs to testify,” adding “This is one of the cases where it is likely that the jury is going to want to hear from Penny, because part of that justification is going to be about what he perceived at the time that the events were happening.”

    The Stakes and Challenges

    If convicted of second-degree manslaughter, Penny could face up to 15 years in prison. A conviction on the lesser charge of criminally negligent homicide carries a maximum sentence of four years. The final decision on sentencing would rest with Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Maxwell Wiley.

    Jury selection is expected to be a critical phase, as prospective jurors’ own experiences on the subway could shape their views. “Jury selection is always a big part of any case, but for this one in particular, multiply that by 10,” said Brooklyn prosecutor Jason Goldman.

    And according to Rendelman, “at the end of the day, one of their arguments is going to be even if you assume that initially – Daniel Penny’s argument that self defense is true, there was a point in time where there was no longer self-defense protection.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 21:35

  • Ten Lessons On US Foreign Policy
    Ten Lessons On US Foreign Policy

    Authored by Rhesa Browning via The Mises Institute,

    Enough Already by Scott Horton is a must-read for anyone who wants to know the truth about US foreign policy in the Middle East for the last 35 years. Horton starts his exposé with the 9/11 tragedy, and then details all the terror wars up until today. Among all the facts and figures, Horton teaches ten important lessons.

    Each chapter focuses on a specific country, but these lessons are woven throughout each.

    Lesson 1—The US is Not Loyal to Its Allies

    “If you want to know who America’s next enemy is, look at who we are funding right now.”—Dave Smith

    I used to think this statement was an oversimplification, but it is deadly accurate. Our government routinely makes allies only to turn around and attack them years later. One clear example is what would become al Qaeda. In the 1980s, the US armed Afghan resistance fighters to oppose Russia in Afghanistan. After 9/11, al Qaeda became the archenemy of the US. Then, about ten years later, they started arming them again to fight in Iraq and in Syria.

    In Afghanistan, the US supported the Taliban during the Clinton administration. Then multiple presidents fought a 20-year war against them only to give full control of Afghanistan back to the Taliban in 2021.

    The US followed the same pattern with Iraq. The US armed them against Iran during the 1980s. They supported Hussein all the way to Iraq War I in 1990. Then they bombed and sanctioned the country until they captured him in 2003 and had him executed.

    Lesson 2—The US Prolongs Wars

    Without US involvement in the Middle East, both sides in a conflict would be similar in strength and have less resources to continue. In the Yemen War, the US sends arms to Saudi Arabia, who then sends them to their allies in Yemen to fight the Houthis, even though the Houthis “won” years ago. Take the US out of the equation and the Saudi’s allies wouldn’t be able to continue the war.

    The same thing happened in Somalia when the US armed Ethiopian forces to invade. Continued US support incentivized the Ethiopian groups to continue fighting after it started. Outside the Middle East, this lesson played out the exact same way in the Ukraine-Russia war. Plus, the US stopped peace negotiations between Zelensky and Putin through their proxy Boris Johnson.

    Lesson 3—The US Justifies Starting Wars with Nonsense

    The best example is Iraq War II. One of the main intellectual justifications for attacking Iraq in 2003 was a white paper titled “A Clean Break,” written by David Wurmser. In it he dreams that if the US military would overthrow Iraq’s Baathist Party, they could set up a government and form close allies in the region. He then imagined that Syria and Lebanon would prefer to follow a US puppet regime in Iraq over Iran, and that the new Shia Iraqi government would unite more closely with the US than Iran. However, they were never going to prefer a secular Western government over fellow Muslims. Contrary to Wurmser’s mythology, Iraq immediately allied with Iran and the rest of the Shia world instead of the US.

    We also all know about the false accusations the Bush Administration made to garner support for Iraq War II. They fabricated stories about Iraq having chemical and biological weapons, and about Hussein collaborating with al Qaeda.

    Lesson 4—The US Causes the Problems They Claim to Prevent

    The clearest example of this is Libya in 2011. The US government justified their intervention saying that, without it, Muammar Gadhafi would massacre his own civilians in response to al Qaeda-aligned rebels opposing his rule. However, US involvement in the conflict caused civilian massacres instead of preventing them. The US-backed rebels terrorized civilians wherever they gained control and instituted a new slave system.

    Lesson 5—The US-Led Terror Wars Don’t Defend America

    After 9/11, the Taliban offered to help the US capture Osama Bin Laden. Instead of working with the Taliban to avenge the lives of dead Americans, they attacked Afghanistan to conquer the country and install a Western-style government. It demonstrated the purpose was to build an empire, not to defend America.

    The US waged many of the subsequent wars to benefit Israel and Saudi Arabia. The US fought Iraq War III and the Syrian War to reduce Iran’s influence in the region for this purpose. Another reason the US started Iraq War II was to open land for a new pipeline from Iraq to Israel. 

    In the Yemen War, the Houthis were enemies of Saudi Arabia, not the US. The US still dutifully sent in weapons.

    Lesson 6—The US Lies about Every Aspect of These Wars

    They lie about why we should stay, they lie about status updates, they lie about the groups they support. In one of Scott Horton’s radio commercials, he states, “they lied us into war, all of them.” It applies to every aspect of these wars.

    In 2012, the US government showed they were willing to lie in the most insane ways. They blamed the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi on an anti-Islamic video made by an Egyptian-American from Los Angeles. They even threw him in jail for almost a year based on spurious “probation violations” charges. In reality, the terrorists attacked to exact revenge for secret raids against them coordinated by Obama’s counter-terrorism adviser John Brennan. Further, US officials were in Benghazi to transfer weapons from Libya to Syria, between radical Islamists. That led to another lie calling ISIS “moderate” rebels.

    Lesson 7 – The US-Led Terror Wars Produce More Terrorists

    The US military interventions in the Middle East have created more terrorists. In September 2001, al Qaeda consisted of 400 people hiding in eastern Afghanistan. Scott Horton doesn’t give an exact number of their numbers today (though some have estimated at least over 20,000), but he listed al Qaeda-affiliated organizations operating all over the Middle East. Just about every country mentioned in Enough Already now has al Qaeda or Bin Ladenite-style forces in it. Ironically, al Qaeda’s presence in Afghanistan is at another low point now that the Taliban is back in control.

    Lesson 8—The US Primarily Kills Civilians 

    The book throughout presents death and casualty numbers for these wars. Based on those numbers, they roughly kill about 100 times more civilians than combatants. During the 1990s, US bombings and sanctions killed around 500,000 Iraqi civilians. Drone strikes in Pakistan often targeted civilians based on faulty intelligence. Even when they hit terrorists, civilians die because the strikes hit public spaces or community gatherings. Tens of thousands of Yemeni civilians have died because of the war and the blockade resulting in mass starvation there. US-backed al Qaeda forces killed thousands of civilians during the Libyan Civil War of 2011. The same exact thing happened in Syria as ISIS was notorious for massacring civilians in the areas they conquered.

    Lesson 9—The US has Lost Every War It Started in the Middle East

    They haven’t “won” one war in the Middle East. The war in Afghanistan ended with the US giving the country back to the Taliban. In Yemen, the Houthis won and continue to control the main population centers. In Mali, Somalia, and Libya, al Qaeda-affiliated groups are in power. The closest thing to a US victory is Libya since they armed al Qaeda to take out Gadhafi. In Syria, Bashar Al Assad is still in power. Even though the US was successful in deposing Saddam Hussein, the current government is strongly allied with Iran over the US. With such a list of failures the only sensible path is to pursue peaceful interactions.

    Lesson 10—The US Terror Wars Hurt Americans

    The wars hurt normal American citizens in several different ways. Most directly, 7000 American soldiers have been killed with more wounded. Thousands more are suicidal and living lives of desperation because of PTSD.

    The factor affecting most Americans is that the US government pays for military interventions through inflation, debt, and taxation. Simply put, they are stealing from us. As a result, it has become harder for Americans to purchase a home or build a family. This lack of economic opportunity also affects crime rates and homelessness.

    Last, the tools used in those foreign wars are now used on American citizens. The most serious threats to our liberty come from the PATRIOT Act, police militarization, and the NDAA, which allows the government to jail citizens with no due process. I would say that we’ve had enough already. It’s time to end the war on terrorism and every other war we are supporting in the world.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 21:00

  • Trump Considers No Taxes For Police Officers, Firefighters And Military
    Trump Considers No Taxes For Police Officers, Firefighters And Military

    The race to shock and awe with the greatest number of tax cuts ahead of the November 5 election is nearing its climax.

    Donald Trump said he’d consider exempting police officers, firefighters, active duty military and veterans from paying taxes, the Republican nominee’s latest campaign trail idea to deliver tax breaks to key groups of supporters.

    “It’s something I would think about,” Trump said in response to a question about excluding first responders and military members from tax bills on an online show Maintaining with Tyrus that aired Friday.

    “You’re like my tax person there, but yeah. I mean something has to be done,” he said. “It’s almost an incentive to where you can get people interested.”

    The idea to exempt members of the military and first responders from taxation is the latest in a long list of tax proposals Trump has talked about while campaigning against Kamala Harris. He’s pledged to i) eliminate taxes on tipped wages, ii) taxes on overtime pay and iii) taxes on Social Security benefits.

    To be sure, Trump didn’t give any more details about the service member tax exclusion, and any such ideas would require congressional approval in order to become law, which is why absent a Republican sweep most of Trump’s promises will end up as being just hot air.

    The no-taxes-on-military-and-first-responders idea could be among the largest new tax cuts he’s discussed to date, exempting more than 20 million people from federal tax payments. According to Bloomberg, there are about 18 million living veterans in the US, roughly 1.3 million active duty troops, approximately 1 million police offers in the US and more than 300,000 professional firefighters, according to several estimates. The US does offer some broad tax exemption to military members, but that is largely limited to people who are serving in active combat zones.

    Over the last several months, Trump has rolled out a steady drumbeat of politically beneficial tax cut plans focused on key election constituencies, as a way to appeal to voters in an extremely tight election — particularly, low-and-middle-income Americans frustrated by high prices. The Republican nominee has thrown out such a wide range of tax proposals that even his own advisers are unsure about which ones he intends to enact if elected.

    Now that it is clear that neither candidate gives a rat’s ass about the war-time US budget deficit which just hit a mindblowing 6% of GDP despite US GDP allegedly growing at a 3%+ rate…

    … Trump it taking his tax break promises to the limit while also campaigning on extending the tax cut first passed when he was president. Major portions of that law, including lower tax brackets for households and deductions for small businesses, are set to expire at the end of 2025. Trump has also pledged to further lower the corporate rate to 15% from 21% and expand the state and local tax deduction, a write-off popular in New York and California where Republicans face close House elections to keep their majority in the chamber.

    Economists have warned that his policy portfolio may balloon the federal debt, adding as much as $15 trillion to the debt over the next decade, according to an estimate from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Trump contends that economic growth and energy production would offset the loss in tax revenue.

    Of course, the only other presidential candidate that could balloon the federal debt more than Trump is Kamala Harris, whose admin has seen US debt grow by $8 trillion, with US debt growth set to double or triple if her promises of reparations to blacks are realized.

    In the Friday interview, Trump also suggested military members should become teachers when asked about measures to secure schools.

    “So what about teachers that are in the military and they’re teachers, they leave the military, they become history teachers,” Trump said. “They’re in the room and they get to know the students and they know how to use a gun. You can’t have people that don’t have any idea about what to do with guns.”

    Some states, including Iowa and Tennessee, have passed laws allowing teachers to carry concealed weapons on school campuses, a controversial measure that has faced broad criticism from teachers unions and some parents, who say that will make schools less safe.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 20:25

  • Bovard: The Democrats' Three-Decade War On Honest Voting
    Bovard: The Democrats’ Three-Decade War On Honest Voting

    Authored by James Bovard,

    When did preventing election fraud become a violation of the Voting Rights Act?

    According to President Joe Biden’s Justice Department, it is now a federal crime to prevent illegal ballots in presidential elections. 

    Barely 30 days before the 2024 election, the Justice Department sued the state of Virginia to prohibit its removal of the names of noncitizens from voting rolls. Gov. Glenn Youngkin was enforcing a 2006 Virginia law, but the Biden administration portrayed that action as an attack on “the cornerstone of our democracy.” Youngkin denounced the federal lawsuit as “a desperate attempt to attack the legitimacy of the elections” in Virginia.

    The Virginia lawsuit is simply the latest in Democrats’ long war against honest voting, which began with the Clinton administration’s Motor Voter Act. That 1993 law mandated voter registration in every welfare and food-stamp office in the nation. Brent Thompson, executive director of the Fair Government Foundation, observed in 1996, “The Motor Voter law did away with a panoply of anti-fraud mechanisms long relied on by the states to police and deter fraudulent voting.”

    In 2015, the Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton condemned voter identification requirements as part of a “sweeping effort to disempower and disenfranchise people of color, poor people and young people.” A Washington Post headline aptly summarized her message: “Hillary Clinton Declares War on Voter ID.” Verifying identification was unnecessary because, as long as enough ballots showed up with a check by Hillary’s name, she would be irrevocably entitled to all the power she could seize in the following four years. 

    Lax voting procedures in some states were insufficient to enable Hillary to capture the White House. But the panic induced by Covid-19 enabled politicians to radically loosen the rules for the next presidential election. Many states made it easier—if not automatic—to vote by mail, even though a 2012 New York Times analysis concluded that “fraud in voting by mail is… vastly more prevalent than the in-person voting fraud that has attracted far more attention.” Some states abandoned any effort to verify mail ballots, dropping requirements for matching signatures, return addresses, or having a witness verify the person and the vote. Civil Rights Commissioner J. Christian Adams noted that “Democrats succeeded in tossing out state laws related to absentee ballot verification, deadlines and a whole range of laws all in the name of Covid.”

    Neither the Elections Clause of the U.S. Constitution (rules for federal elections “shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof”) nor state law stopped the rigging of the 2020 vote. Michigan sent “unsolicited absentee-voter ballot applications by mail to all 7.7 million registered Michigan voters…without signature verification as expressly required” by state law. The Wisconsin Elections Commission approved setting up to 500 unmanned ballot drop boxes in major Democratic cities in violation of Wisconsin law. That commission  and local election officials encouraged all Wisconsin “voters to unlawfully declare themselves ‘indefinitely confined’—which under Wisconsin law allows the voter to avoid security measures like signature verification and photo ID requirements,” as the Texas Attorney General noted in a brief to the U.S. Supreme Court. The Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled that election officials acted illegally, but that did nothing to nullify the hundreds of thousands of votes that came in via illicit loopholes. Biden carried Wisconsin by 20,000 votes.

    To stifle controversy over electoral rule changes, Biden’s media allies created a fairy tale. A week after Election Day, the New York Times ran a banner headline across the top of the front page: “Election Officials Nationwide Find No Fraud.” How did the Times know? Their reporters basically called election officials in each state and asked, “Did y’all have any fraud?” A total lack of fraud in an election with more than 100 million voters would have required divine intervention to achieve. Biden’s 2020 victory became the election equivalent of the Immaculate Conception. A Washington Post headline scoffed that anyone who doubted Biden’s victory was an “Election Denier”—placing them in the same odious category as Holocaust deniers. An ABC News analysis portrayed distrust of the election results as a form of mental illness.

    Most of the American media pretended that voter fraud was so rare that the mere suggestion of its occurrence was a heresy against democracy. But a few weeks after Biden was sworn in as president, a federal investigation revealed that the U.S. government bankrolled some of the most brazenly corrupt elections in modern times. The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), issued a report titled, “Elections: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan,” that should have received far more attention in Washington and beyond. SIGAR revealed that the net result of 15 years of U.S. pro-democracy assistance was that Afghanistan’s 2019 presidential election was “the most corrupt the country had ever held.” U.S. tax dollars poured into the coffers of Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission to safeguard voting, but that agency was a prime source of the most shameless vote stealing. U.S. aid enabled the Afghan government to purchase sophisticated electronic voting systems. But SIGAR’s report warned that “because governments often control electoral commissions and the procurement of election technology, they are well placed to use it to commit fraud.” SIGAR ruefully noted, “The true purpose of adopting election technologies may not be to actually reduce fraud, but to create the illusion of doing so.” A U.S. Army colonel who deployed several times to Afghanistan told SIGAR that as early as 2006, the Afghan government had “self-organized into a kleptocracy.” Officials who were stealing everything else never hesitated to steal votes. The collapse of democratic legitimacy paved the way for the collapse of the U.S. puppet regime in Kabul in August 2021.

    The Biden administration sought to exploit Covid-era precedents to turn America into a Drop Box Democracy where minimal efforts by voters automatically sanctify maximum power for politicians. In 2021, the House of Representatives passed H.R. 1, the For the People Act, to force all states to adopt the most unreliable electoral procedures used during the pandemic. The bill, which failed in the Senate, would have compelled all future federal elections to permit paid ballot-harvesting and universal mail-in voting, prohibit checking voter identification, and require states to count ballots that arrive ten days after an election. Many of the same Democrats who championed Covid vaccine passports, which disproportionately barred blacks from restaurants and gyms, also insist that requiring voters to show identification is Jim Crow at its worst.

    Histrionics and shenanigans continue to be the Democrats’ preferred substitute for election integrity:

    • Kamala Harris objected to voter identification requirements because she bizarrely claimed it was “almost impossible” for rural voters to photocopy their identification papers.
    • The city of Detroit responded to a Republican National Party Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for ballot drop box surveillance footage by claiming that the footage had been deleted—after the FOIA request was received. Detroit was notorious for shrouding its vote counting on Election Night 2020, blocking poll watchers from witnessing Biden’s miraculous comeback.
    • In Georgia, Judge Thomas Cox on Wednesday struck down the Georgia State Election Board’s new rules to require video surveillance of ballot drop boxes and to regulate ballot-harvesting.
    • Lawsuits are proceeding regarding lax standards for absentee mail-in ballots in North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas, and elsewhere.

    Preventing bogus ballots should not be treated like a moral or theological issue. When did verifying votes become a crime against democracy? Why is the Justice Department crusading to turn voting into an entitlement program for non-citizens? Do Democrats seek to make the actual voting as fraud-ridden as politicians’ campaign promises?  Elections need rigorous safeguards against fraud because, as Thomas Paine warned long ago, “the trade of governing has always been monopolized by… the most rascally individuals of mankind.” Four presidential elections since 2000 have been heavily tainted by allegations of foul play. American democracy has zero legitimacy to spare at this point.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 19:50

  • Leaked US Intel Confirms Israeli Nuclear Weapons
    Leaked US Intel Confirms Israeli Nuclear Weapons

    Via Common Dreams

    “We have not observed indications that Israel intends to use a nuclear weapon.” That sentence is the concluding line from an allegedly leaked (or hacked) U.S. intelligence document posted online this week and later reported on by Axios, CNN, and other outlets.

    As Axios reported on Saturday, “U.S. officials are extremely concerned about a potentially major security breach after two alleged U.S. intelligence documents about Israel’s preparations for an attack on Iran were published by a Telegram account affiliated with Iran.”

    Overhead satellite view of Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center, via War is Boring

    The Associated Press and independent investigative journalist Ken Klippenstein both cited government sources who said the documents appeared to be authentic. While U.S. officials have yet to comment publicly on the material, reporting confirmed an investigation into their authenticity and how they came to be in the public domain was underway.

    Since a barrage of missile strikes aimed at military targets in Israel by Iran on Oct 1, a retaliatory strike in response to Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other attacks, the world has been waiting for Israel’s promised military response.

    Assuming the documents are authentic, what they show is that U.S. intelligence—as is well known and despite being close allies—keeps a close and clandestine eye on Israeli military operations.

    CNN cited an unnamed U.S. official who called the documents being made public “deeply concerning,” though the outlet did not publish the documents in full. The documents, according to CNN,

    are marked top secret and have markings indicating they are meant to be seen only by the US and its “Five Eyes” allies — Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.

    They describe preparations Israel appears to be making for a strike against Iran. One of the documents, which says it was compiled by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the plans involve Israel moving munitions around.

    Another document says it is sourced to the National Security Agency and outlines Israeli air force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles, also believed to be in preparation for a strike on Iran. CNN is not quoting directly from or showing the documents.

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    It has long been known that Israel has a nuclear weapons program and maintains a nuclear arsenal, but it remains both Israeli and U.S. government policy never to acknowledge or confirm the existence of either. In one of the documents, the U.S. specifically references Israel’s ability to deploy a nuclear weapon, though it categorizes the threat of doing so in this case as low.

    Independent journalist Ken Klippenstein, recently banned from X for posting an internal opposition research dossier that the Trump campaign had compiled on JD Vance, posted images of both documents to his substack page, as he excoriated major outlets for refusing to do.

    “As with the J.D. Vance Dossier, which the entire media knew about but refused to publish, it appears the media has once again lost its nerve – and its sense of what’s news,” Klippenstein wrote.

    According to Klippenstein’s assessment:

    The intelligence report includes a rundown of the various aspects of Israeli military activities that the U.S. is monitoring to inform its judgments and conclusions: weapons handling, air defense, ground forces, Navy, Air, Special Forces, and even Israel’s Nuclear Forces. But even then, only the weapons handling and special forces categories are identified as having a “medium” predictive ability in regards to determining Israel’s action; the rest are designated “low” predictive ability.

    The second intelligence report is titled “Israel: Air Force Continues Preparations for Strike on Iran and Conducts a Second Large-Force Employment Exercise.” The document details Israeli activities during an evident “mission rehearsal” (in U.S. lingo) that could be indicative of how Israel will strike Iran. Citing imagery analysis and other sources, the NGA report notes that the Israeli Air Force is already conducting covert drone operations over Iran (evidently doing its own spying), and how, as part of Israeli Air Force activity, has been handling air-launched ballistic missiles and other weapons.

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    Defending release of the full documents, he explained that both provide “insight of enormous public interest as we stand at the precipice of a broader conflict” and contained “information that directly bears upon U.S. obligations and actions. It is for that reason that I’ve decided to publish the basic documents.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 19:15

  • The Danger To The Dollar Isn't The Euro Or Yuan
    The Danger To The Dollar Isn’t The Euro Or Yuan

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    Russia GDP is now estimated at +3.8 percent, topping the US, despite sanctions. What’s going on?

    Russia’s War Economy

    Eurointelligence discusses Russia’s War Economy

    It is worth looking at the autumn forecast for Russia by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, one of the best sources of economic information for central and eastern Europe. They upgraded their growth forecast for this year by 0.6pp to 3.8%. Russia is outgrowing all western economies, including the US. Growth is forecast to slow down to 2.5% next year because of the impact of a 19% interest rate. It is clear that Russia’s economic expansion is a classic case of a wartime Keynesian effect.

    It is also interesting to contrast Russia’s economic development with that of Ukraine’s main supporters in Europe, which have entered into synchronised austerity, first in Germany, and now in France and the UK.

    Russia’s fiscal stability is perhaps the biggest surprise. Defence spending is on trajectory towards 6% of GDP. And yet, the 2024 budget deficit is projected at 1.5%, falling to 1% in 2025.

    Vasily Astrov, the Russia expert at WIIW, concludes that Putin will have money for the foreseeable future to continue financing the war against Ukraine. A rise in income and corporate tax has meant that Russia’s state finance will become less dependent on energy.

    Financial sanctions are ultimately not as successful as their advocates once believed because money is not a natural global monopoly. International banks are certainly susceptible to US dollar sanctions. But not all banks in the world operate in dollar markets. The use of secondary sanctions has become a first-order instrument in the US’s diplomatic toolkit in this century. But it falls into the category of instruments which lose their value the more you use them. Even amongst US economists, we see a lot of complacency about this. It was friction combined with network effects that favoured the emergency of a single dominating currency – the pound sterling, the dollar later. The danger to the dollar is not the euro, or renminbi. It is that micro-channels are becoming viable as technology reduces the frictions.

    Lessons of the Day

    • The more you depend on sanctions, the less they work.

    • That’s the real risk to the dollar.

    Here’s a Repeat Lesson on Why Sanctions Fail

    On September 26, I commented To Those Hard of Learning, Here’s a Repeat Lesson on Why Sanctions Fail

    In that post I refuted a claim that sanction failures are due to a lack of political will.

    Also see my September 19, 2023: Lesson of the Day: Sanctions Don’t Work Because They Create New Markets

    A person who touted a buyer’s cartel sanction success, now complains the buyers cartel leaks like a sieve.

    Finally, please see How China Gets Around US Sanctions on Semiconductors

    US sanctions backfire again. China is stronger as a result.

    Russia’s GDP shows just how badly misguided and overused sanctions have worked.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 18:40

  • One Of Israel's Most Senior Commanders Dies In Gaza; Hamas Readies Sinwar Successor 
    One Of Israel’s Most Senior Commanders Dies In Gaza; Hamas Readies Sinwar Successor 

    A high-ranking Israeli military officer was killed while fighting in Gaza on Sunday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced the same day.

    Colonel Ehsan Daqsa, 41, was commander of Israel’s 401st Armoured Brigade, and died when his tank was targeted by explosive devices during operations inside Jabalia refugee camp. Reports suggest an improvised explosive device (IED) detonated when a group of officers stood outside of their tanks.

    Colonel Ehsan Daqsa, IDF

    Another Israeli soldier was seriously wounded in the same incident, which involved a second tank being blown up.

    It remains somewhat rare that a colonel (and brigade commander) would be involved in leading operations directly in the battle zone in Gaza. Col. Daqsa has been identified as one of the most senior officers to have been killed in over a year of Gaza operations.

    The Times of Israel reports of the details of his death: “An IDF probe into the death of Daqsa found that he was outside his tank with other officers when they were hit by an explosive device in Jabaliya, as part of an ongoing offensive there against Hamas.”

    This strongly suggests that despite the death of Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ top leader in Gaza, Hamas militants are still fighting fiercely and are not relenting.

    Western leaders used the opportunity of Sinwar’s death last week to call for urgent ceasefire and the return of the Israeli hostages remaining in Gaza, but at this point it seems a distant prospect.

    Fighting could actually intensify in the wake of Sinwar’s death, given he has been held up among Palestinians in Gaza as a martyr and a hero, who went down fighting till the end.

    Meanwhile it looks like Hamas and its external backers are already readying to name a successor: 

    Hamas is likely to name Qatar-based Khalil al-Hayya as a successor to slain leader Yahya Sinwar, aligning it closer to Iran and giving its main backer more sway in the next stage of the group’s war with Israel.

    Al-Hayya is a protégé of Ismail Haniyeh, Sinwar’s predecessor who was believed to have been assassinated by Israel in Tehran in July. He has been leading indirect negotiations with Israel over both a cease-fire in Gaza and the release of hostages kidnapped by Hamas during the Oct. 7 attacks last year, which triggered the ongoing conflict.

    Currently there’s very heavy fighting in and around Jabaliya, which is a few kilometers north of Gaza City.

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    Israeli airstrikes have pummeled the area, providing cover for tank and ground forces, but several reports over the past days have pointed to huge civilian casualties, with dozens killed.

    Some 400,000 people are reportedly in Jabalia camp, and there are reports that the military siege has cut off most supplies of food, water, and medicine.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 18:05

  • The Key To Happiness In America?
    The Key To Happiness In America?

    In the United States, having a job or career that you enjoy is considered a key cornerstone for leading a fulfilling life.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to a survey by Pew Research Center, 71 percent of respondents said that having a job or career that they like is either extremely or very important to feeling satisfied with their lot.

    Infographic: The Key to Happiness? | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The next most popular perceived element for a fulfilling life was having close friends, with 61 percent of respondents picking the option.

    Having children, a lot of money or getting married were less highly rated.

    In the case of having children, 42 percent of respondents said it was not important, while 44 percent said marriage was not important.

    Women were slightly more likely than men to say that their job or career is important to achieving a feeling of fulfillment, at 74 percent compared to their counterparts’ 69 percent.

    Men were slightly more likely to say having children (29 percent versus women’s 22 percent) or marriage (28 percent for men versus 18 percent for women) were key to such perceived metrics of success.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 16:55

  • CNN Panelist Says White People Should Be "Held Accountable" If They Don't Vote For Kamala
    CNN Panelist Says White People Should Be “Held Accountable” If They Don’t Vote For Kamala

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    A CNN commentator declared Saturday that white people who don’t vote to “save democracy” won’t be able to “escape the accountability that they must face.”

    The remarks were made by Angela Rye during a discussion on the network in which she attempted to move blame for Harris’ dismal polling numbers away from black men.

    Rye stated “The responsibility of saving democracy should be on the largest demographic in this country that is white men and white women.“

    “Saving Democracy” by expressing a desire to get rid of it again.

    Also a bit racist no?

    Black people not expressing enthusiasm for Harris is white people’s fault.

    Maybe Obama needs to drop by to give them a stern lecture.

    How, exactly should white people be held accountable?

    It’s not rocket science as to why Americans, regardless of skin colour, don’t want to vote for Kamala.

    Every time one of these people opens their mouth, it only helps one side.

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 16:20

  • Russia's Largest Explosives Plant Attacked In Night Of Over 100 Drones
    Russia’s Largest Explosives Plant Attacked In Night Of Over 100 Drones

    On Sunday Russia’s defense ministry (MoD) announced that over 100 Ukrainian drones were downed over several regions of Russia overnight, as Kiev’s cross-border drone operations have persisted and even been ramped up. Some apparently made it through, however.

    The military and its anti-air defense systems had thwarted “an attempt by the Kiev regime to carry out a terrorist attack using an aircraft-type UAV against targets on the territory of the Russian Federation,” the ministry said.

    Most of the inbound drones were intercepted over the Kursk region, scene of Ukraine’s cross-border ground assault which has been unfolding since August.

    In particular the MoD tallied that it intercepted or destroyed 110 UAVs, and nearly half of these were downed over Kursk not far from the border.

    Dozens of other drones were intercepted over Lipetsk Region, and Nizhny Novgoro and Oryol Regions. One was also downed near Moscow.

    The intended targets of the Saturday night attacks included more energy infrastructure and military sites and likely airports.

    But there are reports that some of the drones made it through Russian defenses, including on Russia’s “largest explosives factory”. Located in Nizhny Novgorod, the sprawling state-owned complex appears to have been hit:

    A source in Ukraine’s SBU security service told Newsweek that drones belonging to the agency, as well as Kyiv’s special operations forces and its GUR military intelligence arm, “struck the Sverdlov plant” in the city of Dzerzhinsk overnight, just west of the regional capital in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region.

    Nizhny Novgorod Regional Governor Gleb Nikitin said on Sunday that air defenses and electronic warfare systems had repelled a drone attack around the “industrial zone” in Dzerzhinsk. He did not specify the target of the attack.

    Several Russian Telegram channels, often used as sources of information in lieu of official statements, reported that Ukraine had targeted the Sverdlov explosives, chemicals and ammunition factory in Dzerzhinsk.

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    Russia’s military has downplayed these reports, saying only that “four employees of the fire department located on the territory of the industrial enterprise received minor shrapnel wounds.”

    But videos purporting to have captured the alleged drone strikes show a large fireball lighting up the night sky over Dzerzhinsk.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 15:45

  • "Imagine What Government Agencies Could Look Like In 4 Years"
    “Imagine What Government Agencies Could Look Like In 4 Years”

    By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    “Imagine what government agencies could look like in 4yrs,” wrote an X employee as a caption for two images, presented side-by-side. On the left was a SpaceX Raptor engine from 2020, the mechanics of it a jumbled mess, wildly intricate, but still impressive, functional. On the right was the 2024 version of that same Raptor engine, its mechanics simple, sleek, as elegant as one could rightly imagine. More powerful, efficient.

    And Elon, fresh off the maiden return of a Starship Super Heavy booster, reposted the dual image, captioned with a single word: “Yup”.

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    “This is a custom-built tower with arms that are designed to catch the largest flying and heaviest flying object ever made and pluck it out of the air,” said Elon, pre-launch, his magnificent Starship on the launchpad, the largest and most powerful flying object ever made with more than 2x the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.

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    “It’ll weigh about 250 tons. We’ll make that lighter over time,” pledged the immigrant from South Africa, now suing the state of California for limiting his ability to increase SpaceX’s launch pace for purely political reasons.

    Even Democrat Governor Newsom came out in support of Elon on this one, chastising his own bureaucratic appointees, as the political winds show signs of shifting.

    “You got a couple hundred tons plummeting at more than half the speed of sound. So this thing is still coming in really fast,” said Musk, his Super Heavy Booster as tall as a 19-story building. “When the engines land… it’s gonna drop the velocity to basically zero and come in between the arms,” he said, describing the landing into his Mechanzilla.

    “The arms will be wide, and as it’s coming in, the arms will, will close, go flush against the side of the vehicle, and the vehicle will be descending through the arms,” said Elon, as Christine Lagarde cut rates 25 one hundredths of one percent, for the third time this year in an attempt to revive Europe’s moribund economy, admitting that she has not yet broken the neck of inflation, but believes she’s in the process of doing so. And as China pledged to print 4trln yuan ($562bln) in additional support for housing projects to try and support its slowly suffocating economy.

    “Excitement guaranteed, success is possible,” said Elon, willing to embrace the uncertain outcome, the risk of televised failure. “It is important in this often difficult and troubled world for there to be things that also inspire and make you feel great to be part of humanity.”

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    Progress

    “A fully and rapidly reusable rocket is barely possible. SpaceX is going to try to do it. We could fail, but we’re going to try to do it,” declared Musk in 2013. “The pivotal breakthrough that’s necessary, that some company has to come up with to make life multiplanetary, is a fully and rapidly reusable orbit-class rocket. This is a very difficult thing to do because we live on a planet where that is just barely possible. If gravity were a little lower, it would be easy. If it was a little higher, it would be impossible. It’s just a very tough engineering problem.”

    “I wasn’t sure it could be solved for a while. But then, relatively recently, probably in the last twelve months or so, I’ve come to the conclusion that it can be solved,” continued Elon racing forward, pursuing his American Dream. “And I think, SpaceX is going to try to do it. Now, we could fail. I’m not saying we’re certain of success here, but we’re going to try to do it. And we have a design that, on paper, doing the calculations, doing the simulations, it does work. And now, we need to make sure that those simulations and reality agree, because generally when they don’t, reality wins.”

    “The strong gravity of Earth makes the physics of a fully reusable rocket with positive payload margin extremely difficult to solve, which is why it has never been done before,” said Elon in 2014. “Removing the mass of landing legs from the booster and ship by making the tower do the work of final velocity attenuation greatly improves payload margin. This architecture also simultaneously substantially increases launch cadence, because the same arms that lift the booster and ship onto the launch stand also catch them, allowing immediate placement of the booster back on the launch stand and the ship back on top of the booster.”

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    “If you can move mass from the rocket to the ground site, it’s better to move mass to the ground site,” said Musk in 2021. “That’s why we took legs off the booster and just have the tower catch it. It sounds mad. I know it sounds insane. When I suggested that, people thought I lost my mind. Maybe I have,” he said, explaining the need to build Mechanzilla’s vast arms to catch his returning booster rockets, improving efficiency, lowering launch costs, one incremental improvement at a time. “It might take a few kicks at the can, but we’ll get it right.

    “Achieving materially positive payload margin to a useful orbit with a fully and rapidly reusable rocket has eluded prior attempts,” said Musk on Monday. “Many have tried to embark upon this path only to give up when it became clear that their design would have negative or negligible payload margin. This is an extremely difficult problem to solve, given the strong gravity of Earth, whereas it is easy on Mars and trivial on the Moon. In the early years of SpaceX, I was not sure that success was even in the set of possible outcomes! Starship is designed to achieve a >1000X improvement over existing rocket systems and, especially after yesterday’s booster catch and precise ocean landing of the ship, I am now convinced that it can work.”

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    “The next generation Starlink satellites, which are so big that only Starship can launch them, will allow for a 10X increase in bandwidth and, with the reduced altitude, faster latency,” said Elon on Friday, as SpaceX requested the FCC make “several small but meaningful updates” to its 2nd-generation Starlink network.

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    “Together, this modification and its companion amendment will enable the Gen2 system to deliver gigabit-speed, truly low-latency broadband and ubiquitous mobile connectivity to all Americans and the billions of people globally who still lack access to adequate broadband.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 15:10

  • Democrats Cheer As Lizzo Says: "Whole Country Be Like Detroit" If Kamala Wins
    Democrats Cheer As Lizzo Says: “Whole Country Be Like Detroit” If Kamala Wins

    Rapper ‘Lizzo’ boarded a private jet on Saturday ahead of a Kamala Harris campaign rally in Detroit, telling the less fortunate than her voters: “This is how a bad b*tch saves democracy. You ho’s couldn’t even spell democracy.”

    Even before Lizzo arrived in America’s most dangerous city, run by far-left Democrats for generations, she insulted everyone… 

    Who the hell talks like that? Also, why a private jet if the imminent global warming disaster is so dire? 

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    It gets even better because, at the rally, Lizzo told the crowd: “I’m so proud to be from Detroit. They say if Kamala Harris wins, the whole country will be like Detroit.” 

    Umm. Who is “they”? Obama? 

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    And, oh boy, X users ripped Lizo for claiming that if Harris was elected president, “the whole country will be like Detroit …” 

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    Detroit is dead. Meanwhile, innovation is happening at SpaceX’s Starbase in Texas. 

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    Most Americans are fed up with Democratic elites who have unleashed chaos and violent crime nationwide while attempting to undermine the Constitution every step of the way.

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    Kamala and her crew are out of touch as nation-wrecking inflation, sparked by her and Joe Biden, financially crushes households.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 14:35

  • When Things Kinda Make Sense
    When Things Kinda Make Sense

    By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

    When Things Kinda Make Sense

    I’m a contrarian by nature. I much prefer finding things that markets may be pricing incorrectly, to going along with the consensus. Usually there is no shortage of topics to pick from as a contrarian. Anything from China, to the quality of data, to the economy, to geopolitical risk, to valuations, but right now, I’m struggling to find an issue to get worked up about. Maybe this is the exception that proves the rule?

    In any case, let’s run through a variety of issues that, for better or worse, I think kind of make sense from a market pricing standpoint.

    Interest Rates

    For the first time in recent memory, I think rates are, more or less, priced correctly. As discussed last week in Little New to Say, it was getting more difficult to remain bearish on Treasury yields, though the bull case was even less convincing. The 10-year did eventually rally back to 4% on Wednesday, but then gave up most of those gains, and is stuck right around 4.1% again.

    We’ve argued in that report and in War, Inflation, and the Neutral Rate, that we might have seen a temporary bottom for inflation. The disruptions caused by hurricanes Helene and Milton could prove inflationary. The rebuilding efforts, which will begin in earnest as insurance checks hit, will also be inflationary. Again, I’m not alarmed that we will get a surge in inflation, but the easy part of the lower inflation story is almost over (the “simple” model of two distinct “Covid bumps” – one for goods and one for services – has been an effective tool in estimating the direction of inflation). You can find the “Covid bump” chart in Building the Case For Rate Cuts from early July.

    The Neutral Rate has become a part of virtually every bit of FedSpeak that we get. Almost all speakers agree that it is higher than they previously thought. So far, they seem to be channeling 3% to 3.5%, but I expect that to solidify to 3.5% to 3.75% sooner than later. We spent over a year over 5% and the economy has barely slowed!

    Having said all that, markets have largely moved to be in line with our take. They are still a bit more aggressive on the rate cut front than we are, and we think they are too complacent on the deficit and the longer end of the yield curve, but market rates are in our ballpark now.

    On the Fed cut front:

    • The market is pricing in 2.5 cuts in the next 3 meetings.

    • That isn’t far from our expectations. As discussed on Bloomberg TV last week, we are still pricing in 25 bps in November as a certainty. Bloomberg TV captioned our recent interview as Embarrassing for the Fed Not to Cut in November. The caption is a bit aggressive (it was 5:30 in the morning after all, and we covered a lot more ground), but I do think that for the sake of continuity and to support the decision to go 50 in September, they will cut 25 unless we get some extremely strong data. Then, I would expect a pause in one or both of the next 2 meetings. Our base case is only 2 cuts in the next 3 meetings, which means the market is “only” 0.5 cuts higher than us (the markets were 2 full cuts more than us a couple of weeks ago).

    • Our current outlook for next 3 meetings:

      • 50% chance of 25, 0, 25

      • 30% chance of 25, 25, 0

      • 20% chance of 25, 0, 0

    • The market doesn’t get below 3.3% on Fed funds until January 2026. That is a far cry from when it was below 3% by the summer of 2025 a few weeks ago. I think that it continue to inch up towards 3.6%, but my timing for that is early 2026. We are basically down to arguing over just about 1 cut, instead of 3, which is where we were. Again, all kinda makes sense.

    • That still leaves me slightly bearish 10s, primarily because I think 2s vs 10s should be 25 bps (though they closed at 13, which fits that “kinda right” vibe of today’s report). Also, I just see many more scenarios where we get another “buyer strike” as the realization that no one in D.C. is incentivized to control the growth of the deficit, rather than scenarios that see a surge in demand. For a range on 10s, I think 4% to 4.2%, but with more risk of a breakout to 4.5% than a breakdown to 3.75%. The 30-year is even more susceptible to a major move to higher yields from Friday’s 4.4% close (5% seems unlikely, but is a risk).

    Jobs and the Economy

    Following my view that seasonal adjustments have been wrong (adding too many jobs in the winter and subtracting too many jobs during the summer), we should be getting “clean” data. In fact, errors and issues surrounding jobs data have retreated from front and center for us, to more of a back burner issue. But, while issues addressed in The Fog of War have not been entirely resolved, they just aren’t our highest priority right now.

    While the hurricanes will cause some distortions, I expect the jobs data to be “okay.” Consistent with a bumpy/choppy landing – not signifying growth, but also not hinting that we might already be in a recession.

    Consumer data seems “mixed.” There are signs that spending remains robust, like this week’s retail sales data. There are also some signs that consumers, especially lower income ones, are getting stretched. Credit card debt, even adjusted for inflation (and wage growth), is getting to be a potential hurdle to further spending. We are seeing delinquencies (most noticeably in autos) tick higher. Regardless of which data you look at on this front, the trend has not been friendly. On the other hand, some metrics are still below 2018/2019 averages, so it shouldn’t signal panic, just something to watch.

    At the same time, some portion of that record amount of money in money market funds is held by individuals. Presumably, some of that interest gets spent, helping the economy. I think the surprise in this cycle will be that lower yields stall spending as most debts are locked in at lower yields and the lack of interest income will hurt households more than the cuts help (ok, I managed to squeeze in one “out there” view in today’s report).

    The Atlanta GDPNow estimate is at 3.43%! That is up from a recent low of 2.54% on October 1st. This number is a bit volatile, but even 3% would indicate a decent, even good economic backdrop, which I cannot disagree with.

    Our “bumpy” scenario is that some sectors will be doing well, while others struggle. Ditto for various regions of the country. Nothing that the economy can’t handle, but also not some overly rosy resurgence story.

    Earnings and Market Responses

    Taiwan Semiconductor announced earnings that helped that stock jump 10% on Thursday. The chip stocks did well, but not as well as TSM, and the Nasdaq 100 edged only marginally higher. To me, the response seemed kinda right. The epicenter of the move was on the stock that delivered the positive outlook, and the strength rippled out from there, but in what seemed appropriately proportional amounts. It didn’t cause the entire market to go into a furor of buying. Similarly, NFLX did extremely well on Friday (up 11%), but it seemed to be treated, correctly in my opinion, as a validation of their business, rather than some sign that all tech should rally! Yes, markets did rally on Friday, in part because of NFLX, but I think it had more to do with another effort by China to further talk up their markets and their commitment to stimulus. ARKK, which I still use as a barometer for “disruption,” was actually down on Thursday, again signaling “differentiation” rather than excessive speculation in the market.

    Breadth seems to be increasing as the Russell 2000 outperformed the other major indices and the equal weighted S&P 500 beat out the regular S&P 500 on the week (barely, but still, a positive sign for breadth).

    The fact that major companies, with large market caps, can move 10% on earnings, still seems a bit bizarre to me, but I like how the rest of the market performed around these earnings. It is as though we’ve built up a base and are being thoughtful, rather than just slapping the “BUY” button.

    I’m sticking to my assessment that the CCP needs the economy to turn around and will continue to add measures to prop it up (see China Stimulus Simplified). So far, they seem to be following our playbook as though they read the T-Report. One thing I do think the market is getting wrong, is assuming the Chinese stimulus will help the big global companies, when I believe it will be as targeted as possible to support domestic brands, as part of the transition from Made in China to Made by China.

    I’m still concerned about valuations in some areas and think there is a big risk if we see any signs that spending on AI is slowing or even being questioned. It is just as easy (or maybe easier) to have 10% down days. In general, I do think the market behaved rationally relative to the news flow recently.

    Finally, from a purely “Market Structure” standpoint, we continue to have the risk that a lack of liquidity can cause larger-than-rational moves in either direction, where the chance of very large single day moves to the downside heavily outweigh the odds of a big day to the upside.

    Credit Markets

    Remember when we asked How Tight Can Credit Spreads Go? Well, the market continues, maybe begrudgingly, to move in our direction. We listed multiple reasons to remain so bullish credit. We have reiterated some in recent reports, but I urge you to go back to this report from July to see the entire list, since the reasons are all still in play.

    The Election

    If saying credit spreads, already tight, are likely to go tighter, isn’t treading into dangerous waters, then bringing up the election certainly is.

    Gridlock. That seems to be the one thing markets and most polls agree on. Most things I see point to a House of Representatives won by the Democrats and a Senate won by the Republicans. So long as that seems to be the base case, then it doesn’t matter as much who wins the presidency, as their ability to create real change will be limited. It also fits with a view (which I hold) that people who vote against someone (rather than voting for someone) are more likely to split their ticket. They want to vote against someone, but don’t want to give, whoever they vote for, too much power.

    We are starting to spend time thinking more seriously about potential outcomes and policies and expect to publish early this week on the subject, but for now, we think the markets are moving in regard to election headlines.

    Geopolitics

    Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group published a SITREP on Israel Kills Sinwar. There are ongoing developments this weekend and we continue to expect Israel to retaliate against Iran directly. While the death of Sinwar may open the door to some truce with Hamas, that is far from certain. In any case, Israel is likely to continue to prosecute their war with Iran’s other proxies and Iran itself.

    The markets seem entirely focused on whether or not Israel (or Iran) will do anything to disrupt the flow of oil. So long as that seems to be off the table (which was the indication that we were given this past week), markets will not pay too much attention to the situation. Yes, participants in markets are paying close attention to all of the suffering and death, but that does not translate into markets moving, unless we get significantly more escalation and expansion (even then, the reaction in markets is likely to be muted unless energy supplies are affected). It seems harsh to write this (and it probably is), but there is a significant difference between human tragedies and what can move markets.

    Owning energy (rather than Treasuries) is the best way to hedge any escalation. Though at 4.1%, it is less unreasonable to own some Treasuries as a hedge to geopolitical risk (though I don’t think it will be as successful as owning energy).

    Bottom Line

    Rates, call it slightly bearish, but just barely (low conviction and small sizes).

    Credit, still dull and still a great place to be.

    Equities, Chinese stocks, value, small caps, and equal weight indices all look attractive. Still too worried to fully commit to the stocks with the highest valuations/multiples/best moments, but I did like how the market behaved (though I’d add to the laggards rather than to the year-to-date winners). Finally, things seem to be falling into place for commercial real estate bets. I would have liked to see a lot more “clearing transactions” where we developed a true clearing price as I’m told there still is a difference between what buyers are willing to pay and what sellers think they deserve. But everything from the end of rate hikes to more “Work From Office” headlines, makes me want to add exposure here.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 14:00

  • Boeing Explores Asset Sales In Potential Shrinking Of Corporate Footprint 
    Boeing Explores Asset Sales In Potential Shrinking Of Corporate Footprint 

    The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday morning that Boeing is mulling over asset sales to raise cash levels for its struggling business. On Saturday, Boeing and union heads reached a tentative labor contract agreement that could soon end the money-draining months-long labor strike, while early last week, the planemaker filed a $25 billion shelf registration to provide a “variety of capital options as needed to support the company’s balance sheet over a three-year period.”

    The new report cites a person familiar with a recent discussion between Boeing’s board and executives at its headquarters in Arlington, Virginia. The meeting centered around potential asset sales, as executives and board members combed through internal reports on the state of each of the planemaker’s units. 

    Just weeks ago, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg told employees, “We need to be clear-eyed about the work we face,” adding, “We also need to focus our resources on performing and innovating in the areas that are core to who we are.”

    Ortberg replaced Dave Calhoun as the president and CEO of Boeing on August 8. He is expected to comment publicly for the first time as CEO on Wednesday, following the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers’ vote on the new labor contract. The company estimated the strike to cost $1 billion. It warned of a $6 billion quarterly loss for the period ending September 30. 

    On Tuesday, just days after Boeing announced plans to cut 10% of its workforce due to intensifying financial pressure, such as dwindling cash reserves and mounting risk of a credit downgrade, as well as prolonged strike, the beleaguered planemaker filed a $25 billion shelf registration. 

    “This universal shelf registration provides flexibility for the company to seek a variety of capital options as needed to support the company’s balance sheet over a three-year period,” Boeing wrote in the filing. 

    Separately, Boeing entered into a $10 billion “supplemental credit agreement” with a consortium of lenders. It noted that the credit facility provides “additional short-term access to liquidity as we navigate through a challenging environment,” adding that it has not drawn down on this facility or its existing credit revolver. 

    Boeing has already considered selling its rocket-launching joint venture, United Launch Alliance, with Lockheed Martin to Sierra Space for $2-$3 billion. Also, Boeing’s space division is in crisis following the malfunctioning of the Starliner spacecraft.

    Separately, Boeing’s competitor, Airbus, laid off 2,500 jobs in its space division, as Elon Musk’s SpaceX dominates rocket launches and leads the space race in this solar system. 

    Boeing’s obsession (Wall Street’s obsession) with DEI, climate, and gender justice ultimately dealt the fatal blow. It’s time to refocus on the fundamentals, like building planes that actually stay in the sky. Is that a hard ask, Boeing?

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/20/2024 – 13:25

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