Feb 10

Today’s News 10th February 2025

  • Senate GOP Proposes Constitutional Amendment To Limit Size Of Supreme Court
    Senate GOP Proposes Constitutional Amendment To Limit Size Of Supreme Court

    Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

    Republicans in the U.S. Senate proposed a new constitutional amendment on Feb. 7 that would prevent federal lawmakers from increasing the number of justices—currently set at nine—on the U.S. Supreme Court.

    The new joint congressional resolution, the Keep Nine Amendment, was introduced after Democrats in the previous Congress proposed a series of measures to boost the number of justices and enforce ethics standards at the nation’s highest court. Republicans at the time criticized the legislation.

    Congressional Democrats have been demanding ethics reforms in recent years as reports of justices not publicly disclosing gifts have surfaced. They have also grown increasingly incensed by Supreme Court rulings they disagree with on issues such as abortion, gun rights, affirmative action, environmental policy, and the power of the administrative state. Republicans have countered that efforts to regulate the court are unconstitutional and motivated by partisan animus.

    The current limit of nine justices was established by the federal Judiciary Act of 1869. The number has not changed since then. Supreme Court justices are nominated by the sitting president and confirmation requires a simple majority vote by the Senate.

    Amending the U.S. Constitution is difficult. Article V of the Constitution provides that an amendment can move forward only if it is approved by a two-thirds vote of both houses of Congress or by two-thirds of states participating in a special constitutional convention. It must then be ratified by the Legislatures of three-fourths of the states to become part of the Constitution.

    The resolution states that the amendment would become effective if it is ratified “within seven years after the date of its submission for ratification.”

    The Democrats’ “court-packing scheme would erase the legitimacy of the Supreme Court and destroy historic precedent,” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said in a statement.

    “The Court is a co-equal branch of government, and our Keep Nine Amendment will ensure that it remains independent from political pressure.”

    Co-sponsor Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), said the amendment is needed to check Democrats’ “efforts to undermine the integrity of the Court.”

    He said lawmakers on the other side of the aisle want “to use the Court to advance policy goals they can’t accomplish electorally.”

    Among other co-sponsors of the amendment are Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Jim Banks (R-Ind.), and Deb Fischer (R-Neb.).

    Several bills have been introduced in Congress in recent years to expand the court beyond nine justices.

    In September 2024, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) unveiled legislation to add six justices to the Supreme Court, raising the total number of members to 15.

    “The Supreme Court is in crisis and bold solutions are necessary to restore the public trust,” Wyden said.

    In May 2023, Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) introduced legislation to raise the cap on justices to 13.

    “Our most fundamentally held freedoms are under attack from an illegitimate, far-right United States Supreme Court,” Markey said. “And if we fail to act, it will only get worse.”

    The Epoch Times reached out for comment to the Democrat minority on the Senate Judiciary Committee. No reply was received by publication time.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 22:45

  • Even Never Trumpers Are Warming Up To The Donald
    Even Never Trumpers Are Warming Up To The Donald

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Commentary

    I’d like to talk a day about an irony. Maybe it’s something that’s a paradox. Have you noticed that there’s certain people who are coming out of the woodwork who are diehard Trump opponents and suddenly they say, sorta, “I like Donald Trump,” or they don’t say it publicly or they don’t write it emphatically?

    President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump pause while speaking to supporters at Joint Base Andrews before boarding Air Force One, in Joint Base Andrews, Md., on Jan. 20, 2021. Pete Marovich/Pool/Getty Images

    And here’s what I mean. He went to Davos and I thought, “Wow, they’re going to destroy Don.” I don’t mean destroy him effectively, but they’re going to try to destroy him. And then the questions and answers were amazing. He outlined tax reform, transparency, low interest rates, targeted tariffs, more energy development, more fossil fuels, closed borders. I thought, “Wow, that is going to drive the Davos people crazy.”

    And then the questions were, “Are you sure you can send us a liquid, not natural gas? We need it in Europe,” or there were, “This sounds great, but when will it start?” And you start to think, these are capitalists and they want Europe to be turned to its former grandeur. And all of a sudden, this man is saying something that is exactly opposite of the socialism that destroyed their countries and which they bought into. And now they don’t have to do it. And they’re secretly, but more openly even admiring Donald Trump.

    Same phenomenon happened when I was on campus, not long on the Stanford campus, a professor whom I know came up to me, and I would say that he is a moderately anti-Trumper, never Trumper maybe, and he whispered, said, “Wow, the end of DEI is actually not that bad, is it?” And what he was saying is, “There’s no more racial quotas and maybe I wanted to be a dean.” I’m saying, I’m extrapolating what he was saying. “Maybe I want to be a dean or maybe I want to get published at University Press and there’s not going to be any racial quotas anymore or discrimination and I’m for that because the DEI is a monstrosity. There won’t be any czar that calls me up and says your syllabus doesn’t have enough DEI material in it, or I’ve looked at your grading pattern and you’re inordinately giving Cs to people of color. No more commissars.”

    So even they are, you know, happy that Donald Trump is doing this. And then we get into the FAA [Federal Aviation Administration] and people are really angry at Donald Trump because in this tragedy of the airline accident, Donald Trump actually said things that were quite blunt. He said that DEI was maybe at fault, and we now know that the, and I don’t want to get into a critique yet of the crash, but it seems like the helicopter was too low, and there was culpability, which seems like one of the air traffic controllers was not there. It seems like somebody left early. It seems like there was a mistake on giving directions about the proper elevations.

    But we do know this, and Donald Trump brought it up, and that was that the FAA consistently under Joe Biden had racial quotas and they abolish programs and universities that encourage people who had either expertise through the curriculum or prior military experience who would do well on meritocratic exams to try to join the FAA and they were rejected because of their race. That is a fact and in fact, there has been several lawsuits challenging the FAA and the first nomination to the FAA, of course, the candidate that Biden picked didn’t even know the fundamentals of aviation. He came from the Denver airport, but he didn’t have any knowledge of the actual mechanics of how airports worked, it seemed.

    My point is that when he did that, everybody in the media thought it was awful. But then people who probably didn’t even vote for him said, “Wait a minute. I want to be safe. I want my daughter to be safe. I want my husband to be safe. You mean there’s people in these control towers that were selected for criteria other than merit?”

    And while it might have been illiberal or maybe inconvenient, Donald Trump told the truth. What I’m getting at is this. This country has moved so far to the left on energy, on DEI, on transgenderism, on crime, on the border, that people even who supported it, whether they’re the people in LA that lost their homes, or the people who voted for Adam Schiff—and we saw what he did at the nomination—they want a return.

    And this man is the only person, Donald Trump, with the guts and the backbone to not just make a transition, not to the far Right, back to the center or the center traditional Right that secretly, at least for now, they are happy that it’s going on because they feel that they and most Americans will be the beneficiaries, And you know what’s correct? They’re absolutely right.

    Reprinted by permission from The Daily Signal, a publication of The Heritage Foundation.

    Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 22:10

  • First CBS News Poll Of Trump Stuns Democrats
    First CBS News Poll Of Trump Stuns Democrats

    President Donald Trump’s lawsuit against CBS News over its “news distortion” of a 60 Minutes interview with then-Vice President Kamala Harris may have compelled the left-leaning media organization, owned by Paramount Global, to report actual news. 

    A new CBS News/YouGov survey of 2,175 US adults interviewed last week found President Trump to be “tough,” “energetic,” “focused,” and “effective” in his first few weeks in office.

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    Many respondents said the president is going over and beyond in helping this nation, with very few saying he is doing less. 

    His voters note that he has the right balance of focusing on restoring national security by reversing the disastrous open border policies of the Biden-Harris administration and ending diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in the federal government and military. 

    Most respondents approved of the president’s border and deportation policies, while cash-strapped respondents said the administration needs to focus more on tackling the inflation storm sparked by out-of-control spending by Democrats.

    Here are the questions asked in the CBS News/YouGov survey:

    Describe Donald Trump As…?

    Trump And Campaign Promises: Is He Doing…?

    Trump’s Overall Job Rating

    Trump Admin’s Program To Deport Immigrants Illegally In US

    Sending US Troops To The US-Mexico Border

    Large Detention Centers While Determining Who Should Be Deported

    Trump’s Handling Of Israel-Hamas Conflict

    US Trying To Take Over Gaza Would Be…

    Trump’s Focus On Lowering Prices Is…

    New US Tariffs On Goods From…

    Elon Musk & DOGE: Influence Over Gov’t Operations And Sending Should Be

    What’s entertaining is that all of these polls heavily lean to the left—yet, no matter how much the MSM tries to manipulate polling data to generate negative sentiment around Trump, the president’s level of support must be extraordinarily high. And this is what actually keeps the Democratic Party up at night… Poll rigging is not working. Too big to rig. 

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    MSM’s ability to control narratives and push radical leftist state propaganda through its censorship blob is coming to an end in the Trump era. More and more Americans are realizing that their hard-earned money has been used to fund leftist media outlets and journalists who have spent the past decade calling Trump a “Nazi.”

    Now let’s look at MSNBC’s polling of Trump…

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 21:35

  • Trump Says He Has Spoken Directly To Putin About Ending War In Ukraine
    Trump Says He Has Spoken Directly To Putin About Ending War In Ukraine

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

    President Donald Trump said this weekend that he spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending the Russia–Ukraine war, drawing a response from the Kremlin.

    Speaking to the New York Post in an exclusive interview on Air Force Once, Trump said that he did speak with the Russian leader about the war, which started in 2022. Asked about how many times he’s spoken to Putin in recent days, Trump said, “I’d rather not say.”

    However, Trump said he believes Putin “does care” about the carnage on the battlefield and “wants to see people stop dying.”

    “All those dead people. Young, young, beautiful people. They’re like your kids, two million of them—and for no reason,“ Trump said, referring to soldiers dying in the war, adding that the conflict ”never would have happened” if he was president in 2022.

    Elaborating, but without providing many details, Trump said that he has a plan to end the war and added that he has a good relationship with Putin.

    “I hope it’s fast,“ he said. 

    ”Every day people are dying. This war is so bad in Ukraine. I want to end this damn thing.”

    Longtime Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the TASS state news agency that “many different communications are emerging” between Moscow and Washington, according to a Russian-to-English translation.

    “These communications are conducted through different channels,” Peskov said when asked by TASS to comment directly on Trump’s interview with the Post.

    “I personally may not know something, be unaware of something. Therefore, in this case, I can neither confirm nor deny it.”

    In February 2022, Putin sent thousands of troops, tanks, and other military hardware to Ukraine as part of a “special military operation” for what he said was an attempt to end a possible threat to Russian sovereignty by Ukrainian forces backed by NATO. He also has said that Russia wants to protect Russian speakers living in Ukraine.

    But Ukraine and its Western backers, led by the Biden administration, have said the invasion was an imperial-style land grab and vowed to defeat Russian forces. Moscow controls a chunk of Ukraine about the size of the American state of Virginia and is advancing at the fastest pace since the early days of the 2022 invasion.

    Before taking office in January, Trump has said that he wants to quickly end the war, at several points saying he would end it within 24 hours of taking office.

    On Feb. 7, Trump said he would probably meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy next week to discuss ending the war. Zelenskyy told Reuters on the same day that he wanted Ukraine to supply the United States with rare earths and other minerals in return for continued financial support its war effort.

    “If we are talking about a deal, then let’s do a deal, we are only for it,” Zelenskyy said. “Let’s develop this together, make money, and most importantly, it’s about the security of the Western world.”

    But Zelenskyy cautioned that Trump must meet with him before he meets with Putin on ending the war. The reason, he said, is because meeting with Putin first would “look like a dialogue about Ukraine without Ukraine.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 21:00

  • "Worst Go First": Baltimore ICE Agents Arrest "MS-13 Terrorists" In Suburban Neighborhoods
    “Worst Go First”: Baltimore ICE Agents Arrest “MS-13 Terrorists” In Suburban Neighborhoods

    Maryland’s radical sanctuary state policies under Governor Wes Moore and the Democratic Party in Annapolis have unleashed public safety threats for law-abiding taxpayers in several counties.

    Real America’s Voice reporter Ben Bergquam joined ICE agents from the Baltimore branch on a ride-along as they targeted “MS-13 terrorists in suburban neighborhoods.” 

    “Embedded with Baltimore ICE Field Office Director, Matthew Elliston and his team along with the Baltimore FBI office, Special Agent in Charge, Bill DelBagno, and the ATF,” Bergquam wrote on X. 

    “Listen to what Matt says about sanctuary jurisdictions, and the crazy news we get after we picked up one of the MS-13 criminal illegals! These guys are all being aided and coached by leftist, activist groups and putting every one of your neighborhoods in danger.” 

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    Gov. Moore and the far-left lawmakers in Annapolis have prioritized time and taxpayer monies on comforting illegal aliens in the state rather than properly addressing the public safety threat of “MS-13 terrorists” roaming city streets and urban neighborhoods. Marylanders are disgusted with local Democrats in the state as sanctuary policies have backfired.

    In addition to the public safety disaster, Gov. Moore is leading the state into a fiscal crisis. The state’s credit outlook is “negative” amid repeated calls by Democrats to raise taxes, which will only increase the exodus of the tax base, thus placing the state on a dangerous death spiral—similar to Illinois—in the next decade.

    Let’s not also forget Democrats in the state have mismanaged the power grid with disastrous green policies that have sparked a power crisis. Taxpayers are now furious this winter that their power bills spiked uncountably.  

    The little hope that Marylanders have in ending this failed progressive nightmare comes from Trump’s deportation initiative, carried out by ICE and other federal agencies, to restore national security.

    Meanwhile, a Republican sheriff of Frederick County told Newsweek last month that Gov. Moore and leftist politicians are making it their “obligation” to protect illegal alien communities. 

    Marylanders did not vote for radical leftist politicians to flood the state with “MS-13 terrorists” and illegal aliens. Democrats are still not reading the room in the era of Trump, doubling down on illegal aliens and wokeism. 

    If Maryland gets a credit downgrade under Moore’s tenure – then good luck trying to make a bid for president in 2028.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 20:25

  • Trump, Musk, & The Deep State: The Battle Over Transparency Begins
    Trump, Musk, & The Deep State: The Battle Over Transparency Begins

    Authored by Roger Kimball via American Greatness,

    Here we go again. At the beginning of his first term as president, Donald Trump issued an executive order temporarily banning travel from several countries – Yemen, for example, Sudan, Libya, and four others – that had been identified as major exporters of terrorism.  The left went nuts, excoriating Trump for his “racist” “Muslim travel ban.”

    It wasn’t a “Muslim travel ban,” but try telling that to Seattle District Court judge James Robart. 

    He sniffed the air, sensed the pleasing hysteria and press coverage, and issued a cursory restraining order against Trump’s executive order. The humorous part of Robart’s order came towards the end.  As I wrote at the time, Robart insisted that the “declaratory and injunctive relief” outlined in his order be applied immediately and on a “nationwide basis” (my emphasis).

    Seattle has spoken, Comrades! Judge Robarts finds (where? how?) that his court has jurisdiction over … well, over just about everything: the president and the head of the Department of Homeland Security, for starters, but also “the United States of America (collectively).”

    So all across the fruited plain, “Federal Defendants and all their respective officers, agents, servants, employees, attorneys, and persons acting in concert or participation with them are hereby ENJOINED and RESTRAINED” from enforcing the President’s executive order.

    This may be the best place to pause and point out that Donald Trump, acting as the president of the United States, was perfectly within his rights to issue an executive order to suspend travel from particular countries.

    And so it is now with Trump’s deputies in the Department of Government Efficiency.  

    Tasked with the Herculean labor of unscrambling the byzantine Rube Goldberg device that is the 21st-century administrative state for furthering corruption, illegal payments, and partisan influence at home and abroad, DOGE commander Elon Musk and his laptop-and-algorithm-toting lieutenants have been patiently uncovering the pyramid of waste, fraud, and abuse that is the foundation of the United States government in its twenty-first-century incarnation.

    In a remarkable piece called “Override: Inside The Revolution Rewiring American Power,” a blogger known as EKO showed how it worked. Four young coders arrive at the Treasury Department in the wee hours of January 21.  Within hours they have succeeded in tracing long-hidden payment directions.

    No committees. No approvals. No red tape. Just four coders with unprecedented access and algorithms ready to run.

    “The beautiful thing about payment systems,” noted a transition official watching their screens, “is that they don’t lie. You can spin policy all day long, but money leaves a trail.”

    That trail led to staggering discoveries. Programs marked as independent revealed coordinated funding streams. Grants labeled as humanitarian aid showed curious detours through complex networks. Black budgets once shrouded in secrecy began to unravel under algorithmic scrutiny.

    The difference between Trump’s first term and his second (acknowledged) term can be explained in two words: velocity and preparedness.  In 2017, Trump’s initiatives were hampered, blindsided, litigated, and smothered in red tape.  This time the Leviathan’s usual expedients are impotent. “Their traditional defenses—slow-walking decisions, leaking damaging stories, stonewalling requests—proved useless against an opponent moving faster than their systems could react. By the time they drafted their first memo objecting to this breach, three more systems had already been mapped.” And here’s the point:

    “Pull this thread,” a senior official warned, watching patterns emerge across DOGE’s screens, “and the whole sweater unravels.”

    He wasn’t wrong. But he misunderstood something crucial: That was exactly the point.

    The left gets it. And their heads are exploding.  So far, their biggest gun was the creaky cannon Judge Robart wheeled out: the emergency injunction with immediate “nationwide effect.”

    The New York Times, a house organ for anti-Trump hysteria, has a long hand-wringing column about the latest wheeze. Paul A. Engelmayer, a U.S. District Judge appointed by Barrack Obama, just issued an “emergency order” to restrict Elon Musk’s and DOGE’s access to the Treasury Department’s payment and data system.  He also insisted that anyone who had access to those systems after January 20 “destroy any and all copies of material downloaded from the Treasury Department’s records and systems.” Fun part: even Scott Bessent, the Secretary of the Treasury, is prohibited from looking into the corrupt structures of his own department.

    Engelmayer’s order came in response to a lawsuit filed on Friday by Letitia James, Attorney General of New York and professional scourge of all things Trump, along with 18 other Democratic state attorneys general. What was the charge?  The stated predicate was that by authorizing the investigation, Trump had failed in his Constitutional duty to “faithfully execute the laws enacted by Congress.” The real predicate was that Musk’s beavers were uncovering the inner mechanism of the deep state and the resulting truths were unbearable.

    “Humankind,” said T. S. Eliot, in “Burnt Norton,” “cannot bear very much reality.” Similarly, Bureaucrats cannot bear very much transparency.  Like vampires, the sunlight is fatal to them.

    How will Trump respond?  We do not know yet.  I hope it will be at least partly as Andrew Jackson is said to have responded in his contretemps with Chief Justice John Marshall.  In 1834, the Supreme Court determined that the Cherokee Indians owned Northern Georgia. Nevertheless, Andrew Jackson evicted the Indians, reputedly observing that Marshall “has made his decision; now let him enforce it.”

    Lincoln responded in a similar fashion to Chief Justice Roger Taney in 1861. In April of that year, Lincoln suspended the writ of habeas corpus between Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia. This allowed military commanders to imprison suspected saboteurs without indictment. Taney said (in “Ex Parte Merryman”) that Lincoln did not have the authority to do this. Lincoln basically ignored him, invoking the novel doctrine of “nonacquiesence.”

    As usual, Lincoln demonstrated his deep understanding of the issues involved. “Are all the laws but one to go unexecuted,” he asked Taney, “and the Government itself go to pieces lest that one be violated? Even in such a case, would not the official oath be broken if the Government should be overthrown when it was believed that disregarding the single law would tend to preserve it?”

    In my view, Trump’s actions to expose the partisan corruption of the administrative state are in response to an existential threat is as grave, if less bloody, than the Civil War. The permanent bureaucracy that rules us has for decades been erecting and fortifying a nearly impenetrable edifice from which to preserve its privileges and power, stifle criticism, and export its globalist agenda.  Donald Trump was elected to deconstruct that edifice. Elon Musk is one of his most potent aides in accomplishing that task.  Of course, the left is hysterical.  Their gravy train is being derailed before their eyes. The people who elected Trump are delighted.

    I suspect that the squeals and tantrums of the ruling party and its minions will amount to no more than theater. I further suspect that Trump will resort not only to “nonacquiesence” but also to non-payment.  In 2022, New York received $383 billion in federal spending. There are many ways in which Trump could stanch the flow of federal dollars to obstreperous states. I think he should consider them all. I am also happy to see some official pushback.  Rep. Darrell Issa, for example, just announced that he is “immediately introducing legislation next week to stop these rogue judges and allow Trump and DOGE to tell you where government is spending your money.” Good for him.

    One final suggestion. If left-wing regime-party judges can issue emergency restraining orders with “immediate nationwide effect,” why couldn’t a politically mature district judge in, say, Alabama do the same, overturning the order issued by his left-wing colleague on an “immediate, nationwide basis?”  I offer the idea free and for nothing.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 19:50

  • Trump Says He'll Impose 25% Tariffs On Steel And Aluminum On Monday
    Trump Says He’ll Impose 25% Tariffs On Steel And Aluminum On Monday

    President Donald Trump said Sunday that he will announce on Monday new 25 percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States, the Epoch Times reported.

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    “Any steel coming into the United States is going to have a 25 percent tariff,” he told reporters Sunday on Air Force One as he flew from Florida to New Orleans to attend the Super Bowl. When asked about aluminum, he told reporters, “aluminum, too” will be subject to the trade penalties.

    Trump on Sunday offered no details about the aluminum or steel tariffs. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said that the new tariffs would come on top of the existing duties on steel and aluminum.

    Trump also told reporters that he would soon announce “reciprocal tariffs” on Tuesday or Wednesday, meaning that the United States could impose duties on products from countries that have placed tariffs on U.S. goods.

    “If they are charging us 130 percent and we’re charging them nothing, it’s not going to stay that way,” he told reporters.

    Steel and aluminum were among Trump’s earliest tariffs during his first term, implementing a 25% duty on steel and a 10% duty on aluminum  in 2018 on grounds of national security.The steel tariffs also come amid a stalled deal by Japan’s Nippon Steel Corp. to buy US Steel Corp. for $14.1 billion. The transaction was blocked by former President Joe Biden and is also opposed by Trump.

    Last week, Trump elaborated on the reciprocal tariffs during comments at the White House alongside Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

    “Where a country … charges us so much, and we do the same,” he said. “I think that’s the only fair way to do it. That way, nobody’s hurt.”

    Trump also said that Nippon Steel is now considering investing in US Steel instead of purchasing the company outright. Trump told reporters on Sunday that Nippon Steel cannot have a majority stake in the US firm.

    According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the European Union levies as much as 50 percent tariffs on motorcycles and 10 percent on automobiles, while India places 60 percent duties on U.S. cars and hefty tariffs on agricultural products.

    During the campaign, Trump often said that he would place tariffs on a variety of goods and countries, sometimes even suggesting that the United States could abolish the income tax in favor of tariffs.

    Earlier this month, he warned that he would place a 25 percent tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, if those countries do not curb illegal immigration or fentanyl production and trafficking into the country. Ultimately, he pushed back the Canada and Mexico tariffs by a month after leaders of the two countries agreed to strengthen their border security.

    “The orders make clear that the flow of contraband drugs like fentanyl to the United States, through illicit distribution networks, has created a national emergency, including a public health crisis,” Trump said in a statement before he agreed to not immediately issue those duties against Canada and Mexico. “Chinese officials have failed to take the actions necessary to stem the flow of precursor chemicals to known criminal cartels and shut down money laundering by transnational criminal organizations.”

    Both Mexico and Canada said they would send thousands of troops to their respective borders with the United States to stanch the flow of illegal immigrants and fentanyl trafficking. The 10 percent tariff on China took effect on Feb. 4.

    Continue reading at The Epoch Times

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 19:21

  • NIH Slashes Indirect Costs, Says Move Will Save Billions Per Year
    NIH Slashes Indirect Costs, Says Move Will Save Billions Per Year

    Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times,

    The National Institute of Health (NIH) on Feb. 7 decreased the maximum indirect cost rate research institutions can charge the government to 15 percent. Indirect costs include utilities, facility, and personnel, and service contracts.

    NIH predicts the change will save more than $4 billion a year.

    In 2024, $9 billion of the $35 billion granted for research “was used for administrative overhead, what is known as ‘indirect costs,’” the agency said in a post on social media platform X on Friday.

    “The average indirect cost rate reported by NIH has averaged between 27 percent and 28 percent over time. And many organizations are much higher—charging indirect rates of over 50 percent and in some cases over 60 percent,” the NIH said in its announcement.

    The White House said in a statement Saturday that the new NIH policy is in line with what research institutions receive from private foundations.

    The agency said “many of the nation’s largest funders of research—such as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation—have a maximum indirect rate of 15 percent.”

    Meanwhile, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) announced that the Department of Health and Human Services canceled 62 contracts worth a total of $182 million.

    One of the terminated contracts was a $168,000 contract for an Anthony Fauci exhibit at the NIH Museum.

    “These contracts were entirely for administrative expenses – none touched any healthcare programs,” stated DOGE, the new cost-cutting agency headed by Elon Musk, in a social media post on Friday.

    The NIH has not returned a request for comment.

    The changes have raised concerns by some in academia.

    Jeffrey Flier, a Harvard University professor, wrote on X that cutting NIH grant indirect funding would cause chaos and harm biomedical research in hospitals, schools, and institutes around the country.

    Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) called the move illegal.

    “Trump’s proposal is ILLEGAL & amounts to an indiscriminate funding cut for research centers of all sizes, NOT just Ivies. It will mean shuttering labs across the country, layoffs in red & blue states, & derailing lifesaving research on everything from cancer to opioid addiction,” she said in a statement on X.

    Some lawmakers welcomed the cuts.

    “Eliminating excessive ‘indirect costs’ will save the American taxpayer tens of billions of dollars in overhead expenses,” Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) wrote on X.

    Harris, who is also a physician, said the U.S. government pays significantly more than nonprofits. He also disputed claims that the cuts would eliminate research.

    “The Trump administration did not cut funding for biomedical research. Funding excessive ‘indirect costs’ is not the same as funding the research itself,” said Harris.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 18:40

  • Musk Calls For Impeachment Of Obama-Appointed Judge Who Blocked DOGE Access At Treasury
    Musk Calls For Impeachment Of Obama-Appointed Judge Who Blocked DOGE Access At Treasury

    Elon Musk has called for the impeachment of an Obama-appointed judge who barred DOGE and the Treasury Secretary from accessing payment systems at the US Treasury.

    On Friday night, Democrats went ‘judge shopping’ to ask that Musk’s team be stopped from accessing Treasury systems, knowing that instead of receiving a judge by random selection, the only available judge would be Paul Engelmayer – who held an ex-parte hearing without DOJ lawyers. Engelmayer did not cite any case law or precedent for his ruling, which many have criticized for vast overreach.

    The order prohibits special government employees, along with those from outside the Treasury department, and the Treasury secretary himself, from accessing the systems.

    On Saturday, Musk posted to X: “A corrupt judge protecting corruption,” adding “He needs to be impeached NOW.”

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    In an earlier post, Musk wrote “it’s time,” in response to the suggestion that activist judges should be impeached.

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    Engelmayer’s ruling came in response to a lawsuit by 19 Democratic state attorneys general who panicked over DOGE investigating waste, fraud and abuse within the US government.

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    “The Court’s firm assessment is that, for the reasons stated by the States, they will face irreparable harm in the absence of injunctive relief,” wrote Engelmayer in his decision. “That is both because of the risk that the new policy presents of the disclosure of sensitive and confidential information and the heightened risk that the systems in question will be more vulnerable than before to hacking.”

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 18:05

  • Trump: DOGE To Analyze Pentagon Spending After 7th Failed Audit
    Trump: DOGE To Analyze Pentagon Spending After 7th Failed Audit

    President Donald Trump has directed Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to audit the Pentagon, after the Defense Department failed its seventh audit in a row.

    During an interview with Fox News‘ Bret Baier set to air before the Super Bowl, Trump said he was directing DOGE to investigate both the Department of Education and the Pentagon.

    “We’re going to find billions, hundreds of billions of dollars of fraud and abuse,” Trump said.

    On Friday, Trump said during a press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba that he was directing DOGE to investigate “Pentgon, education, just about everything,” adding that he thinks Musk will find “a lot” of waste, fraud and abuse.

    “Sadly, you’ll find some things that are pretty bad, but I don’t think proportionally you’ll see anything like we just saw,” Trump said, referring to USAID – where the new administration has placed 97% of the staff on leave. Last week, Trump said that billions of dollars have been stolen by USAID.

    Reviewing the Pentagon will be no small task for an agency which sees roughly $800 billion flow through it, and has never managed to pass its own financial audits with the exception of the Marine Corps.

    The Pentagon employs nearly 3.3 million service members and civilians.

    Musk, who has been appointed as a “special government employee,” is one of Trump’s key advisers, who has set a goal for DOGE to cut up to $2 trillion in federal expenses by July 2026.

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    Last week, DOGE claimed that it had managed to save over $1 billion by slashing contracts related to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI), through halting “the hiring of people into unnecessary positions, the deletion of DEI, and stopping improper payments to foreign organizations,” as The Burning Platform noted on Sunday.

    On Saturday, Musk said that DOGE and the US Treasury Department have agreed to new anti-fraud measures aimed at preventing tens of billions of dollars in fraudulent government entitlement payments each year, including the following:

    – Require that all outgoing government payments have a payment categorization code, which is necessary in order to pass financial audits. This is frequently left blank, making audits almost impossible.

    – All payments must also include a rationale for the payment in the comment field, which is currently left blank. Importantly, we are not yet applying ANY judgment to this rationale, but simply requiring that SOME attempt be made to explain the payment more than NOTHING!

    – The DO-NOT-PAY list of entities known to be fraudulent or people who are dead or are probable fronts for terrorist organizations or do not match Congressional appropriations must actually be implemented and not ignored. Also, it can currently take up to a year to get on this list, which is far too long. This list should be updated at least weekly, if not daily.

    The above super obvious and necessary changes are being implemented by existing, long-time career government employees, not anyone from @DOGE. It is ridiculous that these changes didn’t exist already!

    Yesterday, I was told that there are currently over $100B/year of entitlements payments to individuals with no SSN or even a temporary ID number. If accurate, this is extremely suspicious.

    When I asked if anyone at Treasury had a rough guess for what percentage of that number is unequivocal and obvious fraud, the consensus in the room was about half, so $50B/year or $1B/week!!

    This is utterly insane and must be addressed immediately.

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently defended DOGE’s actions at Treasury – telling Bloomberg in an interview with Bloomberg that the DOGE team is made up of highly trained professionals and “not some roving band running around doing things,” possibly in reference to claims by critics that DOGE has embraced and is applying the adage “move fast and break things,” which is part of the Silicon Valley start-up culture of being innovative, nimble, and disruptive.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 16:55

  • Secession From Illinois? It's A Long Shot, But 6 Six Counties Voted Yes
    Secession From Illinois? It’s A Long Shot, But 6 Six Counties Voted Yes

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    Long shot is a huge understatement, but the sentiment alone says what you need to know.

    Secession From Illinois Is in the Air

    Please consider Secession From Illinois Is in the Air

    As states grow more politically polarized, the difference between good and bad governance is coming into sharper relief for voters. Enough people are noticing in Illinois that some counties want to secede from the Land of Lincoln and join a state that isn’t ruled by public unions and their political yes-men.

    In November, to little national notice, seven Illinois counties voted to consider seceding, and now Indiana is rolling out the welcome mat. Voters in Iroquois, Calhoun, Clinton, Greene, Jersey, Madison and Perry counties approved a nonbinding ballot question on cutting ties with Illinois. The votes weren’t close. Six of the seven counties approved the advisory question by more than 70%. Iroquois County’s vote was some 72%, and Calhoun County’s near 76%.

    The Illinois fiscal mess is so great that pressure will keep building to raise taxes again and again. Pension debt was $144 billion in 2024, up from $16 billion in 2000, according to Wirepoints and the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability.

    Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker called the secession idea a “stunt” and derided Indiana as a “low-wage state that doesn’t protect workers, a state that does not provide healthcare for people when they’re in need.” Illinois has a higher average income, but that’s a legacy of the state and city of Chicago’s economic glory days, which are long past.

    Mr. Pritzker is essentially claiming the superiority of his welfare-state, public-union governance model. But fewer people are buying it. Since 2020, 33 Illinois counties have voted to consider breaking away from the state.

    Article IV, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution says “no new State shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State; nor any State be formed by the Junction of two or more States, or Parts of States, without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress.”

    This makes secession a high bar, since it would require Springfield’s agreement and approval from Congress. But maybe progressive lawmakers would be happy to be rid of those red counties so they aren’t regularly embarrassed by their votes to secede. Illinois Republican Rep. Brad Halbrook has introduced legislation for Illinois’s participation in the boundary commission.

    When he runs for President in 2028, perhaps Gov. Pritzker can explain to voters why so many of his citizens want to flee his brand of tax-and-spend governance.

    Related Posts

    March 15, 2024: Congratulations to NY, IL, LA, and CA for Losing the Most Population

    On a percentage basis, New York, Illinois, Louisiana, and California lost the most population between 2020 and 2023.

    March 13, 2024: Chicago Teachers’ Union Seeks $50 Billion Despite $700 Million City Deficit

    If you live in Illinois, get the hell out before unions take every penny you have.

    August 11, 2024: Net Zero Climate Policies Could Leave the Midwest in the Dark

    A cascade of net zero policies put Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois on a collision course with disaster when solar and wind fail.

    November 25, 2025: When Do Mayor Brandon Johnson and the City of Chicago Finally Implode?

    Chicago slashed 2,103 public safety job but added 184 administrators. The budget deficit is nearly $1 billion.

    On October 5, 2019 I wrote Escape Illinois: Get The Hell Out Now, We Are

    And we did in July or 2020. Hello Utah, we love it here.

    Meanwhile, Illinois has only gotten worse. It’s truly incredible how the state keeps electing worse and worse governors.

    And the City of Chicago had a seemingly impossible task of finding a worse mayor than Lori Lightfoot, but Brandon Johnson is not only worse, but amazingly worse.

    Since secession is nearly impossible, I suggest voting with your feet.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 16:20

  • The Super Bowl Is About More Than Just The Game
    The Super Bowl Is About More Than Just The Game

    With all the hype surrounding the Super Bowl, it’s easy to forget that in the end, it is still a sporting event.

    However, if it weren’t for the spectacular halftime show and the special commercials airing during the broadcast, the Super Bowl probably wouldn’t be the global event it has become over the years.

    According to a recent YouGov/Economist poll, only 30 percent of Americans said that the actual game was their favorite thing about the Super Bowl. 

    Infographic: The Super Bowl Is About More Than Just the Game | Statista 

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Meanwhile 26 percent of respondents said they enjoyed the commercials the most and 18 percent were most excited about the halftime show, featuring rapper Kendrick Lamar, who is having quite a week after winning five Grammys last Sunday.

    Who Will Hoist the Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans?

    The Eagles and Chiefs will once again face off on Super Bowl Sunday. The Chiefs enter the contest as slight favorites, though they are arguably up against their toughest competition of the year. 

    The Eagles underperformed to start the season, but now appear to be hitting their stride at exactly the right moment. Although favored, Kansas City will need to continue to play mistake-free football and put on a defensive display for the ages in order to three-peat, a feat that other dynasties such as the 1970s Steelers, 1990s Cowboys and 2000s Patriots failed to accomplish. The Chiefs are well-accustomed to winning close games, with narrow margins of victory common throughout the regular season and playoffs. 

    That said, the Eagles have continuously turned close games into wide margins of victory over the course of the season. FWIW, Wells Fargo expects the Eagles to defeat the Chiefs 31-17, and we agree that an Eagles victory is overdue.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 15:45

  • The Most Dramatic Narrative Shift In Modern History
    The Most Dramatic Narrative Shift In Modern History

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

    The most dramatic narrative shift in this post-lockdown period has been the flip in the perceptions of government itself. For decades and even centuries, government was seen as the essential bulwark to defend the poor, empower the marginalized, realize justice, even the playing field in commerce, and guarantee rights to all. 

    Government was the wise manager, curbing the excess of populist enthusiasm, blunting the impact of ferocious market dynamics, guaranteeing the safety of products, breaking up dangerous pockets of wealth accumulation, and protecting the rights of minority populations. That was the ethos and the perception. 

    Taxation itself was sold to the population for centuries as the price we pay for civilization, a slogan emblazoned in marble at the DC headquarters of the IRS and attributed to Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr., who said this in 1904, ten years before the federal income tax was even legal in the US. 

    This claim was not just about a method of funding; it was a commentary on the perceived merit of the whole of the public sector. 

    Yes, this view had challengers on the right and left but their radical critiques rarely took hold of the public mind in a sustained way. 

    A strange thing happened in 2020. 

    Most governments at all levels across the globe turned on their people. It was a shock because governments had never before attempted anything this audacious. It claimed to be exercising mastery over the whole of the microbial kingdom, the world over. It would prove this implausible mission as a valid one with the release of a magic potion made and distributed with its industrial partners who were fully indemnified against liability claims. 

    Suffice it to say that the potion did not work. Everyone got Covid anyway. Most everyone shook it off. Those who died were often denied common therapeutics to make way for a shot that clocked the highest rate of injury and death on public record. A worse fiasco would be hard to invent outside dystopian fiction. 

    Participating in this grand crusade were all the commanding heights. That included mass media, academia, the medical industry, the information systems, and science itself. After all, the very notion of “public health” itself implies a “whole of government” and a “whole of society” effort. Indeed, science – with its high status earned from many centuries of achievement – led the way. 

    The politicians – the people for whom the public votes and who form the one real connection that the people have with the regimes under which they live – went along but did not seem to be in the driver’s seat. Nor did the courts seem to have much role. They were closed along with small businesses, schools, and houses of worship. 

    The controlling forces in every nation traced to something else we did not normally think of as government. It was the administrators who occupied agencies that were deemed independent of public awareness or control. They worked closely with their industrial partners in tech, pharma, banking, and corporate life. 

    The Constitution did not matter. Neither did the long tradition of rights, liberty, and law. The workforce was divided between essential and nonessential in order to survive the great emergency. The essential people were the ruling class plus the workers who serve them. Everyone else was deemed unessential to social functioning. 

    It was supposed to be for our health – government merely looking after us – but this claim lost credibility quickly, as mental and physical health plummeted. Desperate loneliness replaced community. Loved ones were forcibly separated. The aged died alone with digital funerals. Weddings and worship were cancelled. Gyms were closed and then opened later only for the masked and the vaxxed. The arts died. Substance abuse skyrocketed because while everything else was closed the liquor stores and pot shops were open for business. 

    Here was when perceptions dramatically changed. 

    Government was not what we thought. It is something else. It does not serve the public. It serves its own interests. Those interests are deeply woven into the fabric of industry and civil society. The agencies are captured. The largesse flows mainly to the well-connected. 

    The bills are paid by the people who had been deemed nonessential and who were now being compensated for the troubles with direct payments that were created by a printing press. Within a year, this showed up in the form of inflation that dramatically reduced real income during an economic crisis. 

    This huge experiment in pharmacological planning ended up flipping the rubrical narrative that had largely covered public affairs for everyone’s lifetimes. The terrible reality was being broadcast to the whole population in ways no one had ever before experienced. Centuries of philosophy and rhetoric were being shredded before our eyes, as whole populations came face-to-face with the unthinkable: government had become a grand scam or even criminal enterprise, a machinery that served only elite plans and elite institutions. 

    As it turns out, generations of ideological philosophizing had been chasing fictional rabbits. This is true for all the main debates about socialism and capitalism but also the side debates about religion, demographics, climate change, and so much more. Nearly everyone had been distracted from seeing the things that matter by hunting for things that did not actually matter. 

    This realization transversed typical partisan and ideological boundaries. Those who did not like to think about issues of class conflict had to face the ways in which the whole system was serving one class at the expense of everyone else. The cheerleaders of government beneficence faced the unthinkable: their true love had become malevolent. The champions of private enterprise had to deal with the ways in which private corporations participated and benefited from the entire fiasco. All major political parties and their journalistic backers participated. 

    No one’s ideological priors were confirmed in the course of events, and everyone was forced to realize that the world worked in a very different way from what we had been told. Most governments in the world had come to be controlled by people no one elected and these administrative forces were loyal not to voters but to industrial interests in media and pharma, while the intellectuals we had long trusted to say what is true went along with even the craziest of claims, while condemning dissent. 

    Making matters more confusing, no one in charge of this disaster would admit error or even explain their thinking. The burning questions were and are so voluminous as to be impossible to list in full. In the US, there was supposed to be a Covid commission but it never formed. Why? Because the critics far outweighed the apologists, and a public commission proved too risky. 

    Too much truth could get out, and then what would happen? Behind the public health rationale for the destruction, there was a hidden hand: national security interests rooted in the bioweapons industry that has long lived under a classified cover. This is likely what accounts for the strange taboo concerning this whole topic. Those who know cannot say while the rest of us who have been researching this for years are left with more questions than answers. 

    While we wait for a full accounting of how it is that rights and liberties were crushed worldwide – what Javier Milei has called a “crime against humanity” – there is no denying the reality on the ground. There was certain to be a blowback, the ferocity of which would only intensify the longer justice is delayed. 

    For several years, the world had awaited the political, economic, cultural, and intellectual fallout, while the perpetrators held on hoping that the whole subject would just go away. Forget about Covid, they kept saying to us, and yet the sheer size and scale of the calamity would not go away. 

    We live in the midst of that now, with minute-by-minute revelations of where the money went and who precisely was involved. Multiple trillions were squandered as the people’s standard of living took a dive, and now top among the burning questions is: who got the money? Careers are being wrecked as famous anti-corporate crusaders like Bernie Sanders turn out to be the US Senate’s largest single beneficiary of pharma largesse, exposed for the world. 

    The Sanders story is just one data point of millions. The news of the sheer number of rackets is spilling out like an avalanche minute-by-minute. The newspapers we thought were chronicling public life turned out to be on the take. The fact-checkers were always working for the blob. The censors were only protecting themselves. The inspectors we believed were keeping an eye out were always in on the game. The courts keeping tabs on government overreach were enabling it. The bureaucracies tagged to implement legislation were unchecked and unelected legislatures in themselves. 

    The shift is beautifully illustrated by USAID, a $50 billion agency that claimed to be doing humanitarian work but which was really a slush fund for regime change, deep-state operations, censorship, and NGO graft on a scale never before seen. Now we have the receipts. The entire agency, lording over the globe like an unchecked colossus for decades, seems destined for the trash heap. 

    And so on it goes. 

    Frequently overlooked in all the commentary on our times is how the second Trump administration is Republican in name only but mostly consists of refugees from the other party. Tick through the names (Trump, Vance, Musk, Kennedy, Gabbard, and so on) and you find people who only a few years ago were associated with the Democratic Party. 

    Which is to say that this aggressive rooting out of the deep state is being achieved by what is a de facto third party aimed at overthrowing the establishments of the legacy ones. And this is not just in the US: the same dynamic is taking shape throughout the industrialized world. 

    The entire system of government – properly conceived of not as a democratically elected conduit of the peoples’ interest but instead a complicated and unelected network of unfathomable industrial racketeering with a ruling class at the controls – seems to be unraveling before our eyes. 

    It’s like the old episodes of Scooby-Doo when the scary ghost or mysterious specter has the mask removed and it is the town mayor all along, who then proclaims that he would have gotten away with it but for these meddling kids. 

    The meddling kids now include vast swaths of the world’s population, burning with a passionate desire to clean up the public sector, expose the industrial scams, unearth all the secrets that have been kept for decades, put power back into the hands of the people as the liberal age promised long ago, while seeking justice for all the wrongdoing of these last hellish five years. 

    The Covid operation was an audacious global attempt to deploy all the power of government – in all the directions from and to which it flowed – in service of a goal never before attempted in history. To say that it failed is the understatement of the century. What it did was unleash fires of fury the world over, and whole legacy systems are in the process of burning down. 

    How deep is the corruption? 

    There are no words to describe its breadth and depth. 

    Who is regretting this? 

    It’s the legacy news media, the legacy academic establishment, the legacy corporate establishment, the legacy public-sector agencies, the legacy everything, and this regret knows no partisan or ideological bounds. 

    And who is celebrating this or, at least, enjoying the upheaval and cheering it on?

    It’s the independent media, the genuine grassroots, the deplorables and nonessentials, the pillaged and oppressed, the workers and peasants who were forced to serve the elites for years, those who have been truly marginalized through decades of exclusion from public life. 

    No one can be sure where this ends up – and no revolution or counterrevolution in history is without cost or complication – but this much is true: public life will never be the same for generations to come. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 15:10

  • Israeli Troops Withdraw From 'Death Zone' Corridor Which Cut Gaza In Half
    Israeli Troops Withdraw From ‘Death Zone’ Corridor Which Cut Gaza In Half

    As part of the ongoing ceasefire deal Israeli troops have withdrawn from the militarized zone that cut Gaza in half, called the Netzarim Corridor, and have been removed to the enclave’s eastern border, Al-Jazeera has reported. It has long commonly been called “the death zone”.

    The result is that for the first time in well over a year Palestinians can freely cross between the north and south of Gaza. The corridor stretched the Mediterranean Sea, and videos show large groups of people returning to their largely destroyed communities.

    Netzarim corridor in central Gaza, via IDF

    Israel’s military has described that troops were “implementing the agreement” to leave the corridor in order to facilitate the return of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians.

    Israeli sources told the NY Times that IDF troops have already exited the Netzarim Corridor by Sunday morning. The day prior, Hamas had released three more emaciated-looking hostages. 

    Hamas has declared the IDF withdrawal, which was agreed to as part of the 42-day first phase of the ceasefire, a “a victory for the will of our people, a crowning achievement for the steadfastness and heroism of our valiant resistance, and a confirmation of the failure of the goals of the terrorist aggression.”

    The deal next stipulates that on day 50 of the ceasefire Israel is required to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor.

    Since major Israeli ground operations began in the wake of Oct.7, Israel has sought to order all residents of northern Gaza to flee south. However some 400,000 defied these orders and remained in their communities in the north, amid heavy battles.

    “We endured famine, thirst, bombings, fear, everything. We lived among corpses, under ruins, eating food that wasn’t fit for animals. But we never left northern Gaza,” one eyewitness, Saaed Salem, told The Guardian. 

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    “Each time the Israeli army ordered an evacuation before a ground invasion, I moved only to a nearby neighborhood. And as soon as the invasion ended, I was the first to return,” he said.

    Meanwhile, Trump has continued pressuring Egypt and Jordan to take in the Gaza Strip’s one million plus Palestinians. But the reality is that it will simply be a non-starter and practically impossible, without Arab support. The Arabs in turn have blasted this as brazen and open ethnic cleansing campaign of historic and sovereign territory. The United Nation has also issued such condemnations.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 14:35

  • Government Data Is Garbage: Elon Should Focus On Fixing That Next
    Government Data Is Garbage: Elon Should Focus On Fixing That Next

    By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

    Data, “Rules” & Messiness

    It is difficult to believe that the inauguration was only 2 weeks ago, given the fast and furious pace of executive orders and headlines. DOGE has been even more “prolific” in terms of generating headlines than I would have ever guessed, and I already thought it would be impactful. It is going to be interesting.

    But that takes us away from a few key topics for today.

    Data

    If you thought that we were going to start with jobs data, you are mistaken. Today, “inflation expectations” deserve some attention. Right around 10am ET Friday, the stock market started to decline. Until that moment, it had done fairly well even as yields increased on the back of the jobs report. Then out came the University of Michigan CONsumer CONfidence data, showing 1-year inflation expectations jumping from 3.3% to 4.3%! This was lucky for us, as we had pointed out in our NFP Instant Reaction – What to Do With Data You Don’t Trust that we were moderately bearish risk assets. Consumer inflation expectations were not on my bingo card of what could turn stocks, so I guess that we can classify that under “better lucky than smart.” We should just run with it, but we cannot help ourselves. We have never fully understood:

    • Why does the Fed place so much weight on inflation expectations, particularly from survey data? From people who aren’t experts?
    • Not saying that “experts” have all the answers, but do these individuals really have precise, realistic estimates in mind? Maybe the options should be high, above average, average, below average, and very low? I’m hesitant to put a specific number on inflation for the next year and I spend a LOT of time thinking about it.
      • For the first time in my life, I was motivated to go to their site and see what it takes to become a respondent. But with my VPN turned on during my flight from San Diego (where Academy just hosted a great Geopolitical Summit), I couldn’t access the site. But it is on my “to do” list now.
    • But this is the real kicker!

    • I have no idea how UMich comes up with an average of 4.3. Nor do I really care. Not just for the reasons listed earlier, but also the fact that Republicans are expecting 0 and Democrats are looking for 5% seems insane. It is “almost” like Republicans put in low numbers, hoping the Fed sees and cuts rates (or they just believe in DOGE and the president). It is also “almost” like Democrats put in high numbers, hoping the Fed sees and doesn’t cut rates (or they don’t believe in DOGE and the president’s policies). I understand that political views could influence inflation expectations, but this seems extreme!

    Since the inflation expectations data helped trigger the risk asset sell-off that I was leaning towards, I should be happy, but it seems so ridiculous that it needed to be highlighted!

    “Rules”

    Speaking of things so ridiculous that they need to be highlighted, let’s look at some economic “rules.”

    In physics, what we consider rules are termed laws. But for most people, rules are a set of “things” that need to be followed. Whether they are laws or axioms, they are things that are clear and explicitly define and control actions. On the other hand, conjectures, educated guesses, and “rules of thumb” are general guidelines that often work or point you in the right direction. But by no means are they immutable rules that must be followed.

    So why do economists insist on terming certain things rules that are really conjectures? Probably because it sounds better, especially if you want people to believe that they work. Or maybe it just makes it easier to win prestigious economic awards?

    But we revisit this subject today, not to focus on how inaccurate it is to call many of these things rules, but to highlight that the so-called rules definitively don’t work when they are based on inaccurate data!

    Let’s look at the Sahm Rule which came to prominence this summer. It predicts that when relatively rapid changes in the unemployment rate occur, a recession will follow. I was too lazy to look up the exact definition (airline wi-fi, limitations of working on a laptop, lack of interest), but it is something like when you get a 0.5% increase from high to low (using a 3-month average) within 6 months, we get a recession. Many claimed it happened this summer. Some, I think, argued that with rounding, it didn’t occur. But NONE OF THAT MATTERS! We just learned on Friday that the BLS said there were 2 MILLION more workers in the labor force last year than previously thought! A big enough number, that if we knew in real-time, would likely have dramatically changed all of the unemployment rate data that not only triggered things like the Sahm Rule, but also probably affected monetary policy!

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    And let’s not even get started on things like the Taylor Rule or anything that depends on R*.

    GDP – a somewhat wild guess that gets amended, often significantly.

    Inflation, time and again, seems to defy what we live and breathe. With hedonics, measurement issues, and well-known issues (like the lag on OER), it is difficult to take it as seriously as we are expected to (measured to 1 or 2 decimal places).

    So, basing “rules” on things where the data is unlikely to be accurate is bad enough, and then layer in the risk of treating something as a rule, rather than a decent theory, and we are ripe for more policy mistakes (yes, I believe these issues contributed to transitory, etc.). Let’s not even get started on R* or the neutral rate.

    If this rant seems at all familiar, it is because we covered it last month in Jobs and AI. Maybe I’m motivated to hammer this home because I’m actually hopeful that there is the possibility of achieving some change?

    Whether or not we like any, all, or none of the things this administration is doing, they do seem open to change.

    If we could get better, more accurate, and timely data, we should be able to make better decisions.

    That would reduce the risk of policy error, poor business decisions, etc., which would be great and is why I think it should be a priority for the government to revisit – especially in this day and age where almost everything is stored electronically, updated in real-time, and we have the ability to harness AI like we’ve never had before!

    Elon, if you read this, please think about it! Wouldn’t you want better, more accurate, and more timely information in your decision making?

    Messiness

    Reciprocal Tariffs came up on Friday, adding to the problems stocks and bonds were facing. This is very much in line with my current concerns and the view that this year will be messy, but manageable.

    • The market seems to have settled on the view that these are all just “negotiating” ploys. That has led to muted or short-lived market reactions. While we were fully on board with fading last weekend’s tariff war (kind of comical to write that sentence), we are not so comfortable fading tariffs now.
      • Both Canada and Mexico got 30-day reprieves (to some extent) just for agreeing to do what they had already been planning to do on some level. Small win for the president, but not overwhelming. In the case of Canada, I expect the president to decide that it wasn’t enough, and he needs more tariffs. I think that is a mistake for many of the reasons (regarding supply chains) listed last weekend in The New Trump Tariffs. The complexity of existing agreements and the efficiencies built into the supply chain will be disrupted, causing more harm than good for both countries.
      • There are many in the administration (presumably based on UMich responses) that like the idea of getting more and more revenue from tariffs (in order to cut taxes). I cannot say that I completely disagree with that view, but it could be taken to extremes.
      • You can rattle the cage (so to speak) so often before the people inside that cage start making some plans of their own. Tariff uncertainty, even if intended to be a bargaining tool, could turn into tariffs depending on the responses, but could also cause changes to supply chains as companies get tired of the risk. If you assume, as I do, that supply chains are fairly optimized to be efficient, changes (for whatever reason) will be problematic (with inflation being the first potential issue).

    Expect more noise on tariffs as the market has become too complacent, and I think that it is now far more likely to face a downside rather than an upside surprise from “negotiations.” A different view than I had last weekend, but things move fast in 2025!

    Crypto

    We now, apparently, have a sovereign wealth fund (more on that in the future). We have a “Crypto Czar” who gave a speech surrounded by crypto supporters. We have multiple states trying to pass some sort of crypto reserve (no idea why, other than it is popular and probably attracts some nice campaign promises), yet as of the time that we are writing this, Bitcoin is “only” at $96k.

    That seems odd to me. Never has there been so much public support, but so much has been priced in that it is difficult for it to go higher. Maybe, also, on the down days, we realize that because it is hard enough to put a price on things that in theory we know how to value (stocks and bonds), it is nearly impossible to figure out a “fair value” for a bunch of 1s and 0s? The Rise and Fall, or more like the Meteoric Rise and Plummet of meme coins, might also be making some wonder about the validity of the “store of value” nature of this “scarce asset?”

    When you get positive headline after positive headline and don’t get the response that you expect, it is time to get nervous.

    Bottom Line

    Look for moderately higher yields. Shorts have been squeezed. This market, which seems to rapidly oscillate between overbought and oversold, appears to be overbought again. Expect a lot more “cost savings” headlines from DOGE, especially as they start looking at big programs (like Medicare and the Defense Budget). However, it won’t be enough to offset spending, tax cuts (the deficit will continue to rise), or the very real risk that supply chains will be less efficient (due to tariffs or the response from tariff noise) creating inflation pressures (for Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, alike). Still targeting 4.8% to 5% on 10s with 2s/10s getting to at least 50, with 75 as a longer-term target. Bessent does seem focused on getting 10s down, but that might be far easier said than done, especially given the current policy priorities.

    On equities, look for some overall weakness in U.S. markets. Expect value and equal weighted indices to outperform market weighted indices. Be wary of small caps. As much as I’d like to include small caps in my list of outperformers, they seem more likely to bear the brunt of tariffs and policy mistakes than large companies. Just above 5,800 on the S&P 500 is my target, with risk of a big move to the downside if markets decide we’ve been too optimistic about what can be done quickly. Longer term I’m optimistic, but I don’t like the overall market right now (especially since I don’t think yields/the Fed will be helpful).

    Look for foreign markets to outperform the U.S. (positioning is so tilted the other way, that it won’t take much to get this going). Especially if the dollar continues to increase on the back of tariffs.

    I don’t like commodities themselves, but I do like the commodity producers and those companies that play an important role in the extraction and processing of commodities!

    For the first time in what seems like eons (I’m pretty sure it has been shorter than that) I’m leaning towards being bearish credit spreads. Last time we were bearish on corporate credit, this time it is on spreads (in addition to overall yields).

    • IG is tight. We all know that, but with all the uncertainty, it could be difficult to maintain current levels of tightness. A strong dollar may hurt profitability at some large global corporations. If spreads weren’t so tight, not a big deal, but they may need to widen a touch on that. If M&A is returning (part of our thesis), that tends to be negative for IG as those are the companies that can be levered up. Not thinking a big move, but time for some caution.
    • HY is more susceptible than IG. If I’m getting a bit worried about small caps, I have to worry a bit about high yield. Though there seems to be an entire cottage industry dedicated to shorting high yield, so any damage to the market should be small.

    Good luck and hopefully I’m not the only one who already feels like this has been a long year! No shortage of things to think about, to react to, to anticipate, and to do!

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 14:00

  • Super Bowl Pales In Comparison To The Biggest Game In Soccer
    Super Bowl Pales In Comparison To The Biggest Game In Soccer

    While Americans are getting ready for the 59th Super Bowl, the rest of the world isn’t as fussed about what is arguably the biggest overall spectacle in the world of sports. 

    With all the headlines surrounding the Super Bowl and the show that comes with it, Statista’s Felix Richter notes that it’s easy to overestimate the global appeal of the biggest game in (American) football.

    Speaking of football, soccer, i.e. the proper kind of football from a European perspective, far exceeds the Super Bowl in terms of global interest. The FIFA World Cup Final, played every four years to culminate a month-long tournament of 32 nations, really is the biggest game in the world, regularly reaching more than a billion people across the globe.

    Infographic: Super Bowl Pales in Comparison to the Biggest Game in Soccer | Statista 

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    According to FIFA, the 2022 World Cup Final between Argentina and France reached an average live audience of 571 million viewers across the globe, with more than 1.4 billion people watching at least one minute of the 120-minute thriller live. 

    The 2024 Super Bowl pales in comparison, despite reaching new viewing records both domestically and internationally. 

    According to Nielsen, Super Bowl LVIII drew an average audience of 123.7 million viewers in the U.S. plus a total international audience of 62.5 million.

    Over the past decade, Super Bowl viewership has experienced fluctuations. 

    After a peak in 2015, where Super Bowl XLIX was watched by almost 115 million people, viewership declined in four consecutive years, even dropping back below 100 million in 2019 and 2021. 

    However, recent games have seen a resurgence in audience numbers, culminating in the record-breaking viewership of Super Bowl LVIII, which some have attributed to Taylor Swift’s unmatched popularity and her relationship with Travis Kelce, tight end for the Kansas City Chiefs.

    Infographic: Super Bowl LVIII Drew Largest TV Crowd in the Game's History | Statista 

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The Swift-Kelce storyline has further added to the Super Bowl’s significance not only as a sporting event but also as a cultural phenomenon that captivates millions across the nation. It is this combination of sports, show and commerce that makes it true must-see TV.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 13:25

  • Musk Says DOGE, Treasury Agree On New Anti-Fraud Measures To Claw Back $50 Billion In Payment Fraud
    Musk Says DOGE, Treasury Agree On New Anti-Fraud Measures To Claw Back $50 Billion In Payment Fraud

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

    Elon Musk said Saturday that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and the U.S. Treasury Department have agreed on new anti-fraud measures aimed at preventing tens of billions of dollars in fraudulent government entitlement payments each year.

    In a Feb. 8 statement shared on social media, Musk described the scale of the problem as “utterly insane,” citing estimates that at least $50 billion annually is being lost due to improper payments, including funds going to individuals without Social Security Numbers or even temporary ID numbers.

    Musk, who leads DOGE and has been designated a “special government employee” by President Donald Trump, revealed in the post that Treasury officials estimated that $100 billion in annual entitlement payments may be going to individuals without verifiable identification.

    In a discussion with Treasury personnel, Musk said he asked for an estimate of how much of that is “obvious and unequivocal” fraud, and the consensus was that at least half—$50 billion per year, or around $1 billion per week—is fraudulent.

    “This is utterly insane and must be addressed immediately,” Musk wrote, adding that the DOGE team and Treasury have jointly agreed to a series of reforms.

    One of the most significant changes will be the requirement that all outgoing government payments include a payment categorization code. According to Musk, these codes are essential for financial audits, yet they are frequently left blank, making it nearly impossible to track where taxpayer dollars are going.

    Under the new rules, every payment will also need to include a rationale in the comment field. Currently, many government payments lack any explanation, making it difficult to assess their legitimacy, Musk said. While he emphasized that no judgment will be applied to these rationales at this stage, requiring at least some justification for payments is expected to serve as a deterrent against waste and fraud.

    Another reform involves more effective implementation of Treasury’s Do-Not-Pay list, which is meant to prevent payments to fraudulent entities, deceased individuals, suspected terrorist fronts, and other entities or people who should not be paid by federal agencies. Musk said that this list has not been strictly enforced, with some payments still being made to flagged entities. He also pointed out that it can take up to a year for names to be added to the list, calling for weekly or even daily updates to prevent ongoing fraud.

    Musk said that the above “super obvious and necessary” changes will be implemented by existing, long-time career Treasury employees; not anyone from the DOGE. His remarks in this regard align with Treasury Department Scott Bessent’s insistence that DOGE members have read-only access to Treasury data and that they have not been “tinkering” with sensitive payment systems at the department.

    The development comes as DOGE focuses its cost-cutting and efficiency-enhancing efforts at multiple federal agencies, including Treasury, as part of the Trump administration’s broader aim of reducing deficits and eliminating fraud, waste, and abuse from government.

    Republicans have praised DOGE’s efforts to identify government waste, while Democrats have denounced the body’s actions as an abuse of power and its operations as skirting congressional oversight. There have been protests over DOGE by members of Congress, federal employee unions, and privacy advocates, along with a number of lawsuits targeting its activities. Recently, a judge blocked DOGE’s access to the personal financial data of millions of Americans at the Treasury Department.

    Bessent recently defended DOGE’s actions at Treasury. He said in an interview with Bloomberg that the DOGE team is made up of highly trained professionals and “not some roving band running around doing things,” possibly in reference to claims by critics that DOGE has embraced and is applying the adage “move fast and break things,” which is part of the Silicon Valley start-up culture of being innovative, nimble, and disruptive.

    “This is methodical and it’s going to yield big savings,” Bessent said of DOGE’s work at Treasury.

    In a follow-up post on Saturday, Musk said that the reason no action was taken under prior Treasury leadership to tackle the $50 billion or more in fraudulent government payments is complacency.

    “Nobody in Treasury management cared enough before,” Musk wrote. “I do want to credit the working level people in Treasury who have wanted to do this for many years, but have been stopped by prior management. Everything at Treasury was geared towards complain minimization.”

    The Epoch Times has reached out to the Treasury Department with a request for comment.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 12:50

  • San Diego Supervisor Says Border Now Ghost Town Under Trump's New Policies
    San Diego Supervisor Says Border Now Ghost Town Under Trump’s New Policies

    Donald Trump has been in office for about three weeks. In that time, he signed an executive order to secure the southern and northern borders, deploying thousands of US military troops to restore national security. Now, a senior official at one of the nation’s busiest illegal border crossings has taken to X to highlight the stark difference at the border under the Biden-Harris regime in the last four years and the current situation. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    On Saturday afternoon, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond said the San Diego border region was one area left wide open by Democrats… 

    “For the past four years, our border has been wide open, allowing millions of people to enter the country without proper vetting, including hundreds of thousands here in San Diego. I saw it firsthand—human traffickers dropping people off and walking through into the country without being stopped. Last year, for the first time since the 1980s, San Diego had the highest number of border crossings in the nation,” Desmond said. 

    The official then described the current border situation under Trump and his new policies: “With a new administration in place, I went back to the San Diego border to see what’s happening now. The numbers have dropped dramatically—less than 100 people are crossing a day in San Diego. It’s a stark contrast to the chaos we saw just months ago.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    At the end of Trump’s first full week in office, the president posted a graph on Truth Social that shows the collapse in daily encounters of illegals on the border. 

    Voters are witnessing swift progress at the border, strengthening their confidence in the president. Folks have now seen firsthand that securing the border only takes a few short weeks and an executive order. At the same time, globalists in the Biden-Harris regime lied to the American people that the only way to secure the border was through Congress. 

    Meanwhile, globalist Democrats and their billionaire funders who pushed open borders and wrecked national security will no longer be able to hide behind their public/private censorship blob as Trump, Elon Musk, and DOGE rip down the leftist Matrix. The era of accountability has arrived. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 12:15

  • Trump Doubles CBS Lawsuit Damages To $20 Billion Over Harris's 60 Minutes Interview
    Trump Doubles CBS Lawsuit Damages To $20 Billion Over Harris’s 60 Minutes Interview

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    President Donald Trump has expanded his lawsuit against CBS, doubling the damages sought to $20 billion and adding CBS parent company Paramount Global as a defendant.

    (Left) Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a “When We Vote We Win” campaign rally at Craig Ranch Amphitheater in North Las Vegas, Nev., on Oct. 31, 2024; (Right) Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump, greets supporters during a campaign rally at the Grand Sierra Resort in Reno, Nev., on Oct. 11, 2024. Ethan Miller, Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

    The amended complaint, filed on Feb. 7 at the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas, alleges news distortion, election interference, and financial harm caused by CBS’s handling of its “60 Minutes” interview with Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris.

    “It is beyond dispute that Defendants wanted Harris to win the Election, and indeed political gain for Harris was certainly Defendants’ intent behind their tampering with the Interview,” the amended complaint reads. “But Defendants’ primary motivation was commercial and pecuniary gain.”

    Trump’s legal team claims that CBS deceptively edited Harris’s responses to make her appear more articulate and composed, while also diverting viewership from Trump’s media platform, Truth Social, reducing ad revenue. The complaint asserts that CBS intentionally aired different portions of Harris’s remarks on “Face the Nation” and “60 Minutes,” misleading the public about her full statements.

    “Once Defendants finally released the unedited version of the Interview, it became apparent that they had engaged in gross broadcast distortion cover-up and manipulated not only Harris’s Reply about Prime Minister Netanyahu, but the Interview in its entirety,” the amended complaint reads.

    CBS has dismissed the claims and maintains its edits were standard journalistic practice.

    “We are posting the same transcripts and videos of our interview with Vice President Kamala Harris that we provided to the FCC [Federal Communications Commission],” the network said in a Feb. 5 statement. “They show–consistent with 60 Minutes’ repeated assurances to the public–that the 60 Minutes broadcast was not doctored or deceitful.”

    CBS further stated that a longer portion of Harris’s response aired on Face the Nation while a shorter one aired on 60 Minutes for the sake of brevity.

    “As the full transcript shows, we edited the interview to ensure that as much of the vice president’s answers to 60 Minutes’ many questions were included in our original broadcast while fairly representing those answers,” the network stated. “60 Minutes’ hard-hitting questions of the vice president speak for themselves.”

    The uncut transcript reveals that some of Harris’s answers were cut roughly in half and clarifies her full response to a question about the Israel–Hamas war, which Trump’s campaign claimed was awkwardly phrased and was unfairly edited to improve her image. The transcript also shows that Harris’s complete answer was a combination of the two aired clips.

    “Well, Bill, the work that we have done has resulted in a number of movements in that region by Israel that were very much prompted by, or a result of many things, including our advocacy for what needs to happen in the region. And we’re not going to stop doing that. We are not going to stop pursuing what is necessary for the United States to be clear about where we stand on the need for this war to end,” Harris said, per the transcript.

    Reacting to the transcript’s release, Trump wrote in a post on social media that it shows CBS had removed Harris’s “horrible election changing answers” and replaced them with better ones and that this was election interference and “election fraud at a level never seen before.” He also called for CBS to lose its broadcasting license.

    Trump’s original lawsuit, filed on Oct. 31, 2024, sought $10 billion in damages from CBS for alleged news distortion and election interference. The amended complaint seeks an additional $10 billion under the Lanham Act, which covers false advertising and unfair competition, citing harm to Trump’s business interests, including Truth Social.

    “As a direct and proximate result of Defendants’ misconduct, significant viewership was improperly diverted to Defendants’ media platforms, resulting in lower consumer engagement, advertising revenues, and profits by TMTG and President Trump’s other media holdings,” the amended complaint reads.

    The new filing also names Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) as a plaintiff, arguing that he was harmed as a consumer of misleading broadcast news.

    Trump’s lawsuit coincides with the Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) decision to reopen a news distortion complaint against CBS, initially dismissed in January but revived by new FCC Chairman Brendan Carr.

    “CBS played the same question on two different programs and clearly the words of the answers were very different,” Carr said in a Fox News interview. “Was it edited for clarity and length—which would be fine—or are there other reasons?” 

    Democrat FCC Commissioner Anna Gomez called the move a retaliatory effort to intimidate the media.

    The Epoch Times has reached out to CBS and Paramount with requests for comment on the amended complaint.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 02/09/2025 – 11:40

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