- What The Hell Is Going On? – Part 3
Via Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog,
In Part One and Part Two of this article I revealed how the Deep State’s fake data and fake news propaganda machine can be overcome by opening your eyes, observing reality, understanding how Fed created inflation has destroyed our lives, and why the election of Trump was the initial deplorable pushback to Deep State evil.
“The notion that a radical is one who hates his country is naïve and usually idiotic. He is, more likely, one who likes his country more than the rest of us, and is thus more disturbed than the rest of us when he sees it debauched. He is not a bad citizen turning to crime; he is a good citizen driven to despair.” – H.L. Mencken
“This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation’s attention. The regeneracy will be solidly under way.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
We are now seven weeks into the Trump presidency and it seems like seven years with amount of incidents that have occurred before and since his inauguration. When in doubt, Trump’s brain dead, hyperventilating with hate, opponents either blame the Russians or declare him Hitler. The histrionics displayed by the low IQ hypocritical Hollywood elite, corrupt Democratic politicians, fake news liberal media and Soros paid left wing radical terrorists over the last two months has been disgraceful, revolting, childish, and dangerous.
A counter-revolution by the gun owning normal people in the 85% red area of the country that voted for Trump would not be a pleasant experience for the paid protesters, vagina hat wearing feminazis, and the safe space anti-free speech lefties on campuses across the land.
I must admit I love Trump’s pugnacious style. I love how he treats the despicable corporate media. I love how he responds to baseless accusations by his contemptible opponents on the left and right. The representatives of the Deep State – Schumer, Pelosi, Obama, McCain, Graham, Kristol, CNN, NYT, Washington Post, MSNBC, Soros, and anyone else willing to confront Trump are met with disdain, contempt, and abuse from the president. I love that he continues to go on the road and hold rallies with the people who elected him. I love how he demoralized his opponents by giving one of the best State of the Union speeches in history.
I love how he put his opponents back on their heels by accusing Obama of wire-tapping Trump Tower. No punch is taken without two being thrown. He will never conform to the way the liberal corporate media and his opponents want him to behave. Twitter is the dagger he uses to avoid the fake news media filter and plunge into his opponents hearts. The faux journalists despise his use of Twitter. When you see the violence beginning to break out between Trump haters and Trump supporters, and read stories about Obama leading an insurgency to undermine Trump’s presidency, every normal person must be prepared to do whatever necessary to support his radical agenda of draining the swamp.
“Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.” – H.L. Mencken
The fake news media scoffed when Trump declared what an awful economic mess Obama had left after eight years of a debt fueled Keynesian failure of epic proportions. These fake journalists are good at looking stylish, speaking in serious tones, and reading false narratives written for them by their corporate bosses, but impartially assessing our economic situation is beyond their pea brain comprehension.
The eye opening chart below shows you how far we’ve come since 2000, or how far we’ve fallen, depending on your point of view. It looks to me like Trump has been handed a bucket of shit by his egotistical sociopathic boastful predecessor. Obama can now concentrate on his true passions – his NCAA pool and golf – while Trump is left to try and clean up a $20 trillion mess.
The Bush and Obama administrations frittered away any chance for a sustainable long-term economic paradigm by fighting unnecessary wars of choice, expanding unfunded entitlements, and allowing Wall Street and their Federal Reserve puppets to fraudulently pillage the nation’s wealth. Trump has been left with a debt saturated stagnant economy with rising interest rates and declining corporate profits. This is where reality meets slogans like Make America Great Again.
This is where understanding what happens during Fourth Turnings keeps you focused on what is likely to happen, not what you wish to happen. Slogans and false hope don’t fly during Fourth Turnings. My natural skepticism kicks in when politicians, including Trump, make promises that are mathematically impossible.
I know we are less than two months into his presidency and no legislation has actually been submitted, let alone passed, but impartially assessing his wish list of economic priorities makes me uneasy. I’m not hubristic enough to declare his presidency a failure already, like Karl Denninger, Paul Craig Roberts and some other blowhards. Judging a man before he’s actually done anything tells me more about the judger rather than the man being judged.
He has certainly made some questionable cabinet choices and the number of senior advisors with ties to the Vampire Squid on the Face of America (aka Goldman Sachs) is worrisome. But whenever my doubts about Trump’s agenda begin to surface, I immediately picture the crooked globalist Deep State tool Hillary Clinton making the State of the Union speech last week. And all is well with the world again. My mental funk would be a full blown suicide watch level depression if Crooked Hillary was running the show.
But that isn’t going to keep me from pointing out the mathematically provable impact of his plans on the budget. We already have a $20 trillion national debt, with 10,000 Baby Boomers turning 65 years old every day for the next decade. Annual deficits are already on automatic pilot to reach $1 trillion over the next few years. This is reality. Slogans won’t change it. Hope won’t change it. Delusional optimism by consumers won’t change it. With this backdrop, Trump has proposed the following economic initiatives:
- He’s vowed to not touch entitlements, even though they account for 50% of current spending and will grow to 60% over the next ten years.
- He’s vowed to rebuild the military, with 50,000 more soldiers and upgrades to fighting hardware, at a cost north of $50 billion.
- He’s floated the idea of a $1 trillion infrastructure plan.
- The border wall will cost between $15 and $25 billion.
- His tax reduction plans will add between $2.6 trillion and $3.9 trillion, after accounting for increased growth, over the next decade.
- His much discussed tariffs on foreign produced goods may result in jobs staying in America, but will surely result in higher prices for people buying those goods. Whether this will be a net positive or net negative is open to debate.
- With inflation beginning to accelerate, interest rates will rise. A 1% rise across the yield curve would result in an additional $200 billion per year in interest, a 50% increase from the current level of $400 billion.
Discretionary spending only accounts for 15% of the entire budget. There isn’t savings anywhere near the level of spending increases baked into the budget, let alone Trump’s new grand spending plans. If Trump gets everything he has proposed, without touching entitlements, he would depart in eight years with a $30 trillion national debt and an entitlement crisis just over the horizon. Of course, the likelihood of reaching $30 trillion in debt without triggering a global financial catastrophe beforehand is about as likely as Trump making a sobbing apology to Obama for accusing him of wiretapping Trump Tower.
As I stated at the beginning of this article, I am less sure about just about everything, as time goes on. Every day I see pronouncements from people I respect like David Stockman, Chris Martenson, Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and many others predicting a great crash in the immediate future. They will be right eventually, but they’ve been saying the same thing for the last five years. I agree with their reasoning, but I’ve given up on predicting the timing. They all have one thing in common – their living depends on you buying their newsletters and books. Certainty about looming disaster sells. Since my living doesn’t depend on selling anything, I’m comfortable pondering possibilities and trying to understand how the mood of the country will ultimately propel the unfolding events of this Fourth Turning.
Trump has been referencing the 16% rise in the Dow since his election as proof his proposed economic policies will create millions of jobs, 4% GDP growth, and a new economic boom. That seems a little bit disingenuous, as during the debates and on the campaign trail he said the stock market was a giant bubble. He said the Fed had created multiple bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate with their QE and ZIRP “Make Bankers Rich Again” schemes. Of course, he was right.
His honesty was refreshing. When an extremely overvalued market rises another 16% over a four month period, one might ponder whether we’ve got a blow-off top in progress. Certainly the brainless spokesmodels on CNBC or the bevy of Bloomberg stock shills paraded on camera to bloviate about why this seven year Fed induced bull market is just getting started, will not be telling Joe Sucker to sell.
Any honest financial analyst, who has taken a Statistics course in college, knows whenever something is 2 standard deviations beyond the mean you have a rarely occurring extreme outcome. In fact, the average stock has only been more overvalued one time in stock market history – 2001. Since that market overvaluation was solely driven by dot.com stocks, median stock valuations today are even higher than 2001. This isn’t opinion or survey data.
Doug Short and John Hussman have used impartial valuation metrics which have been accurate for over 100 years. These valuation levels are 160% above historical norms and imply a market crash of 50% to 60%, which would only bring the market back to historical averages. I wonder how many Boomers and GenXers could survive the third stock market bust in the last seventeen years.
The cock sure Wall Street analysts are as smug about this market as they were in 2000 and 2007. They scoff at the possibility of a 50% crash even though the market crashed by 45% in 2000/2001 and plummeted by 51% over a sixteen month period in 2008/2009. As usual, there are a myriad of ridiculous rationales for why it’s different this time. There will always be absurd justifications for outlandish valuations made by those whose paychecks depend on the greater fool theory.
John Hussman, Doug Short, Robert Schiller, and dozens of other rational thinking, honest, data oriented people are right. But that doesn’t mean the market won’t go up another 20% before the inevitable collapse. I have no idea when it will happen, but it will happen. Considering we are in year nine of a twenty year or so Fourth Turning, with the worst part yet to come, I’d venture a guess we will see the next financial crisis during Trump’s first term.
The nattering nabobs of nonsense at the Fed and in the financial mainstream press insist their monetary machinations over the last eight years have not created inflation. They clearly believe in the theory of the bigger the lie, the more likely it is to be believed by a math challenged, technologically distracted, normalcy bias ridden populace. Anyone who thinks the $3.5 trillion of QE money was to help the people on Main Street is either a government bootlicker or an establishment crony paid to spread false propaganda. In addition to the BLS under-reporting inflation by 100%, the Fed’s monetary inflation was pumped straight into the veins of the monetary drug addict Wall Street banks.
While Main Street wages declined and senior citizens have gotten minuscule increases in their life sustaining Social Security payments, the Wall Street bankers, who committed the greatest control fraud in world history, have gotten record bonuses and the freedom to fake their profits through legal accounting fraud (mark to fantasy).
The purpose of TARP, QE and ZIRP has been to sustain, enrich, and keep in power a ruling class of sociopaths hell bent on pillaging the last vestiges of global wealth from unsuspecting citizens. Jamie Dimon believes everything done by the Fed and Treasury has been wonderful, as he plays tennis in his $5 million opulent NYC penthouse suite. Meanwhile, your granny has to decide between her overpriced heart medication or groceries driven higher by the Fed generated inflation.
I don’t know when the center will give way. I don’t know when the stock market will crash. I don’t know when the Federal’s Reserve and other central banks’ shamefully reckless and illegal monetary machinations will blow up the world. I don’t know whether Trump will succeed or fail in his quest to drain the swamp. I don’t know whether the Deep State forces will take him out. I don’t know whether a civil war is on the horizon. I don’t know whether a global military conflict is in the offing. I don’t know when this greater depression will be revealed in all its glory to the millions of people with their heads up their asses in denial about reality. But, I do know whatever happens during the remainder of this Fourth Turning will be driven by debt, global disorder and civic decay, just as it has from the beginning.
I don’t know what the hell is going on. And more often than not, I don’t care anymore. I’m tired of howling at the moon, with no result. Life gets put into perspective when a family member is struck with a totally random health issue and you have to see them suffer through treatments that make them sicker than the actual condition. I know times are going to get much tougher. I have no misconceptions Trump can somehow reverse the course of the US Titanic after it has struck the iceberg of debt.
I believe what’s wrong with this country is unfixable. I think Trump’s legacy will be the tearing down of the corrupt, decrepit, self-serving, evil status quo. His in your face, no holds barred style so angers the established social order; they come out of the shadows to fight him. The sinister intelligence services and Soros/Obama left wing terrorists are being revealed as the true enemies of the common people. We know our enemy. That’s the first step.
I will do my best to get my kids through college debt free as long as they pursue a serious degree. I will continue to pay down my mortgage debt as quickly as possible. I will try to deal with my own health issues and help my wife deal with hers. We will take care of our aging mothers. Family will always come first. We’re only on this earth for a short time and while I get intellectual satisfaction from trying to change hearts and minds through writing, the only thing that truly matters to me is my wife and the futures of my three sons.
I’ll prepare to the best of my ability for the worst, while trying to enjoy the present. Over the last nine years we’ve created a dysfunctional family of internet misfits on my website. I feel an obligation to keep that alive, especially for the talented writers who have blossomed with an open platform for their views, even though my own enthusiasm has been waning for a while.
I’ve tried my best to seek truth, reveal government deception, and generally be a thorn in the side of the establishment. Based on Mencken’s definition, I’m a dangerous man to the government, who has spread discontent among those capable of thinking things out for themselves. You may not realize it, but the war has already begun. No matter what the hell is going on, I sure hope the good guys win.
“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself, without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane and intolerable, and so, if he is romantic, he tries to change it. And even if he is not romantic personally he is very apt to spread discontent among those who are.” – H.L. Mencken
- Caught On Video: Radioactive Wild Boar Roam Fukushima
With humans long gone, and robots dying off amid the radiation, Fukushima has become home to 'something else'.
When the exclusion zone was set up almost exactly 6 years ago this week – with the surrounding towns population evacuated to a safe distance – The Mirror reports that hundreds of the wild boars, which have been known to attack people when enraged, descended from surrounding hills and forests into the deserted streets.
Now they roam the empty streets and overgrown garden's of Japan's deserted seaside town of Namie, foraging for food.
However, the people of Namie are scheduled to return to the town at the end of the month, which means the bloody-toothed interlopers have to be cleared.
"It is not really clear now which is the master of the town, people or wild boars," said Tamotsu Baba, mayor of the town.
"If we don't get rid of them and turn this into a human-led town, the situation will get even wilder and uninhabitable."
Reuters reports that more than half of Namie's former 21,500 residents have decided not to return and face the wild boars, however, a government survey showed last year, citing concerns over radiation and the safety of the nuclear plant, which is being decommissioned.
Wild boar meat is a delicacy in northern Japan, but animals slaughtered since the disaster are too contaminated to eat. According to tests conducted by the Japanese government, some of the boars have shown levels of radioactive element caesium-137 that are 300 times higher than safety standards.
Authorities in the town of Tomioka say they’ve killed 800 so far, but officials there say that’s not enough, according to Japanese media. The latest statistics show that in the three years since 2011, the number of boars killed in hunts has grown to 13,000 from 3,000.
But at town meetings earlier this year to prepare for the homecoming, residents had voiced worries about the wild boars.
"I'm sure officials at all levels are giving some thought to this," said Hidezo Sato, a former seed merchant in Namie. "Something must be done."
Why not send in some robots? Oh wait you tried that!
- Republicans' Consumer Confidence Is At 9 Year Highs (Democrats Not So Much)
Bloomberg’s consumer comfort index surged to the highest level since its peak in February 2007. However, while Republicans are the happiest since 2008, Democrats’ confidence is collapsing…
But the divided America is extremely evident. Republican consumers in America have not been this ‘comfortable’ since January 2008, Democrats are the least ‘comfortable’ in 10 months.
The last time Democrats’ consumer comfort plunged like this
relative to Republicans was in September 2013, when President Obama
authorized the use of force against Syria (over crossing his chemical
weapons red line). - Why Force Parents To Keep Their Children In Failing Public Schools?
Via Duane of Free Market Shooter blog,
The nomination of Betsy DeVos was fraught with criticism from the left. She was derided for having “no experience with public education, no political experience, no government administrative experience,” and her support for school vouchers/charter schools, among many other things. Notably, most of the criticism came from educators, many of them members of the teachers’ unions, who have had many years and more than enough funding to fix failing public schools, with little (if any) success.
Which all begs the question – if your student is enrolled at a failing public institution, why should he/she be forced to remain enrolled there?
Recently, someone shared the experience of “Madeline” (the mother of a Philadelphia school student) and “Steve” (the student himself). Their names have been changed for the purpose of this article, which as Madeline explains, is more than likely necessary, so they do not face reprisal from public school educators and administrators. For her and her son, having a choice has meant the difference between years wasted in a failing school, and a real chance at a real education.
Madeline and Steve, both African Americans, live with Madeline’s husband in West Philadelphia, where most families are hard working but underpaid by any standard. Steve attended John Barry Elementary School (Grades K-8) from Kindergarten through 3rd grade. They both described the school as “terrible,” among several other less than savory terms. Every day there were fights, with girls pulling hair out, and kids would turn over desks/chairs before running through the halls while class was in session. Teachers would try to break up fights, but would more often call security, who would remove the offending student. If the issue couldn’t be resolved, parents would be called, who wouldn’t always show up to take the child away. If teachers took away phones from students who used them during class, they would curse at teachers and administrators with little fear of reprisal, sometime assaulting teachers.
Security consisted of one police officer. Lockers were not considered safe, and oftentimes items left in them would be stolen by other students. The food was considered to be “awful” by Steve, and the bathrooms were filthy, with urine on the floor and by the drains. Classes were approximately 30 students each, with the principal changing every year. Notably, Steve was academically ahead of his classmates – most of the students did not want to be in school, and were extremely disruptive. Steve had one good teacher, but he noted that the teacher had difficulty actually teaching anything, since there were so many disruptive students. Steve stated his only positive experience from the school were his field trips to a farm and a circus.
If you look at the performance of John Barry Elementary School, you can see this for yourself. Reproduced below are the PSSA charts for Grade 3 (the one grade listed that Steve was in attendance for), and unsurprisingly they are far below the SDP average.
Also below is the teacher attendance for John Barry, which is far below the SDP average as well.
Madeline (unsurprisingly) did not want to keep Steve in John Barry, seeing it as a hostile environment to not just learning, but Steve’s safety, and his development as a person. She feared that leaving him in this school would bring out the worst in him, and that could lead him to a life of crime or worse. Madeline put her son on a waiting list to get into a charter school, later finding out that only 1 of every 3 applicants were accepted, and she believes some schools have a lottery. Her son got into Mathematics, Civics, & Sciences Charter School of Philadelphia (K-12), courtesy of two friends’ cousins who used to teach at the school.
Her son said that from the day he got to the school, he was actually learning. The kids were all serious, and not playing around. The teachers were “not soft, striking fear into unruly students,” and the students subsequently respected the teacher and wanted to be productive. The teachers, in turn, trusted the kids, but there is still far more security, with one guard in each hallway. The principal frequently interrupts classrooms and asks students what they are learning, sometimes having “guests” present to evaluate the teachers. The most positive experience that Steve shared is the teachers are “top notch,” and he feels he is finally learning something at school.
It’s not all perfect for Steve though – the school doesn’t have a gym, and not a lot of sports and physical education are available. There is a basketball program, but the school needs to use facilities at other schools. Still, that was the only negative relative to John Barry that MCS Charter had in everything that was discussed. A recent article in Philly.com which described a similar charter school in Northeast Philadelphia was described by Madeline as “very similar” to her experience with MCS.
Finally, Madeline was asked about Betsy DeVos – if she know who she was (she did), and of the criticisms that were sent her way. Her answer was brief – “the criticisms are true – she doesn’t know much about public school.” But then she added, “would anyone really want to know more about John Barry, besides how to get their student out of the school?”
Which brings me back to the criticisms lobbed at DeVos, again by HuffPo. They quoted some things the DeVos said in March 2015 at the SXSW conference in Texas. Some excerpts:
Government really sucks. And it doesn’t matter which party is in power. Having been around politics and government my entire adult life, I have five observations about government for you:Government tends to believe in top down solutions and government fears of bottom up solutions.We don’t pay teachers enough, and we don’t fire teachers enough.In that one sentence, I have raised the ire of both the Republican and Democrat political establishments.The Republicans don’t want to pay our best teachers enough, and the Democrats don’t want to reform tenure laws. It’s another partisan standoff.But I am willing to bet that every one of you had one or more teachers who made a big difference in your life, who opened your eyes to possibilities and to opportunities. You probably recall them in your mind’s eye right now.And likewise, I am pretty sure that every one of you had one or more teachers who should not have been teaching. That doesn’t mean they were bad people, or maybe they were, but regardless, they weren’t any good at teaching. You are probably thinking of those teachers right now.And by the way, teaching is hard. It takes a lot of skill. Not everyone who tries can do it well. We need to admit that and act accordingly.We should reward and respect great teachers by paying them more, and we should stop rewarding seniority over effectiveness.As it applies to education, you would be hard pressed to find Madeline not in agreement with DeVos. Top-down solutions to education and government (read: teachers’ union) fears of bottom up solutions to education have led to a public school system that is behind the curve in nearly all examples.
This is not hyperbole – the US spends approximately $115,000 per student, which is fifth globally, behind only Austria, Luxembourg, Norway and Switzerland. But throwing money at the problem has not led to increased performance, as the Pew Research Center recently analyzed – our students score similar to the Slovak Republic, which spends less than half, at $53,000 per student:
What a surprise – a PISA report has noted the following:
…among OECD countries, “higher expenditure on education is not highly predictive of better mathematics scores in PISA.”
We can reasonably conclude that instead of trying to throw money at the problem, it appears Betsy DeVos intends to “fix” the public school system by giving parents a choice of where to send their students to school. She appears prepared to use the exorbitant cost of public education to finance this choice, and forcing all schools financed with public dollars to become far more accountable for their own performance. Who ends up the big loser? Obviously, failing public schools – if enough students leave the failing schools behind, they will be forced to shutter their doors.
It should be of no surprise then, that teachers’ unions are fighting charter schools at every turn. A recent Forbes article did an exemplary job of dissecting their opposition:
Teachers’ unions often fight charter schools by claiming that they are less accountable to students and families because many operate under less burdensome regulations than do traditional public schools. The real reason for their opposition, of course, is that charter school teachers are not unionized. The reality is that charter schools are much more accountable to young people and their parents than are traditional public schools. If parents do not like their children’s charter schools, they can send their kids elsewhere. This threat of exit gives charter schools an incentive to raise the quality of the education they offer in order to retain students.
Despite union scaremongering, the verdict is in on charter schools: The public favors them 2 to 1. Among African Americans, who are arguably the biggest beneficiaries of alternative schooling options, the favorability ratio is greater than 3 to 1. Even public school teachers desert the union position on charter schools by a slim margin—38% of teachers favor them, and 35% are opposed.
With a favorability rating of 3 to 1 among African Americans, the ethnic group with the largest percentage of students in failing public schools, it should be quite surprising to learn that the NAACP opposes charter schools. Recently, the NAACP ratified a controversial resolution calling for a moratorium on expansion of charter schools, and stronger oversight of charter schools currently in existence.
Publications ranging from U.S. News to The National Review have struggled to answer this question:
The NAACP board will vote this weekend on a resolution urging a moratorium on the creation of new charter schools, on grounds that they worsen segregation and erode local control. This is not a new position for the nation’s oldest civil-rights organization, but it’s gotten more support than ever before — for example, from groups such as those affiliated with Black Lives Matter — and has drawn thoughtful repudiations by the New York Times and the Washington Post as well as the Wall Street Journal. As the Post’s editorial board noted, “that the beneficiaries of [charters] are, in large part, children of color hopefully is not lost on an organization that is supposed to be looking out for the interests of minority people.”
But Education Week said what no one else would:
“The African-American community was shut out of power and authority for so many years, even if African-Americans see the warts on the local district, it’s their district.”
So something else needs to be said, because no one else has said it: if you want your failing public school, you can keep your failing public school – no one is forcing anyone to put their kids into a charter school. But do not take away the option for someone else to remove their child from a toxic environment, and make their own choice on whatever they feel is the best place to send their children to school.
Betsy DeVos wasn’t brought in to enact more “reforms” or toss more money at what appears to be an unsolvable problem – instead, it appears she intends to do something that no one else has done in the past – give more students a choice of what to do with their education. The criticisms about her are all correct – she isn’t well versed in public school education, something she readily admits, but knows that it is failing our country’s students, no matter how much time and money has been spent for who knows how long to repair it. Isn’t a new approach long overdue?
Take note – former President Obama sent his kids to Sidwell Friends, a private school in the D.C. area. And who can blame him? D.C. public schools recently ranked dead last in the nation. Why should the rest of our nation’s students be given a “one size fits all” approach to public education, when that “one size” is a well-funded yet underperforming public school system?
- South Korea's President Has Been Removed From Office After Court Upholds Impeachment
South Korea’s constitutional court has voted unanimously, 8-0, to uphold the impeachment of President Park Guen-hye, removing her from office after a 92-day leadership crisis and triggering a presidential election in the weeks to come. A snap election my be held within 60 days.
The ruling, which was announced by the court’s acting chief and televised live, made Park the nation’s first democratically elected leader to be ousted. She was impeached by parliament on Dec. 9 on charges of letting a close friend meddle in state affairs, colluding with her to extort money from conglomerates, and neglecting her duties during a 2014 ferry sinking that killed more than 300.
The court’s decision strips Park of her immunity from criminal prosecution, which will force her to undergo interrogation by prosecutors over her alleged crimes.
President Park Geun-hye (R) and Lee Jung-mi, acting chief of the Constitutional Court“The Constitutional Court’s decision is equivalent to demanding legal accountability for President Park’s failure to properly run state affairs,” said Yang Seung-ham, honorary professor at Seoul’s Yonsei University. “Now the public should accept the ruling.”
The nation has been sharply divided along ideological and generational lines since the scandal broke in October, pushing millions of people into the streets to rally for or against the impeachment.
Park’s problems began in October, when revelations emerged about the influence Park’s confidante and adviser Choi Soon-sil had over the President. Choi is currently on trial for abuse of power and fraud. What followed later was 5 months of at times sheer chaos (see full timeline below) culminating with today’s decision.
Local media and opposition parties had accused Choi of abusing her relationship with the president to force companies to donate millions of dollars to foundations she runs. She denies all charges against her.
Hundreds of thousands of South Koreans braved the brutally cold winter temperatures to take to the streets of Seoul and call for Park’s ouster.
In a brief televised apology however, Park made it clear that she had no intentions of resigning. In December, the National Assembly voted 234 to 56 to impeach her.
Park was impeached in December after being accused of corruption. She is alleged to have let her close confidante Choi Soon Sil meddle in state affairs and conspired with her to extort money from major companies including Samsung.
Local pundits cited by Yonhap said the court’s decision demonstrated that South Korea’s democratic system is firmly in place. “We have undergone a process of resolving considerable conflict and differences in a predictable manner through legal procedures stipulated in the Constitution,” said Park Myoung-kyu, a sociology professor at Seoul National University. “Now is the time to calm down and turn (the conflict) into policy debates and arguments.”
The president’s supporters and detractors rallied outside the court as police officers and police buses were deployed to prevent a possible clash.
* * *
Below is the full timeline of the Park scandal:
October
24 – South Korean cable TV network JTBC reports that Park’s longtime friend Choi edited some of the president’s speeches. Prosecutors were already investigating claims that Choi had used her relationship with Park to raise funds for two foundations.
25 – Park apologizes on national television, saying Choi had access to dozens of presidential speeches before they were made public.
29 – Thousands of anti-government protesters gather in Seoul, calling for Park’s resignation. Organizers estimate the crowd at 20,000; police put attendance at 9,000.
31 – As Choi arrives at the prosecutors’ offices, following a two-month stay in Germany, she apologizes, saying she has committed “an unpardonable crime.” Late that night, prosecutors place Choi in emergency detention.November
1 – Prosecutors raid the offices of eight banks. Choi is suspected, among other things, of getting preferential treatment from local banks for loans.
2 – Park nominates a new prime minister, Kim Byong Joon, a member of an opposition party, in a bid to quell the controversy.
3 – A South Korean district court issues an arrest warrant for Choi. Kim, the prime minister-designate, says Park could be investigated, saying, “Everyone is equal before the law.”
4 – Park again apologizes on TV, saying she will cooperate in the investigation.
5 – Thousands of protesters take to the streets of Seoul to demand Park’s resignation. Organizers say about 100,000 people participate; police put the number at 40,000.
6 – Prosecutors issue warrants for two of Park’s former aides, AnChong Bum and Jeong Ho Seong, who both resigned the previous week. Prosecutors continue to question Choi.
8 – Prosecutors search the offices of electronics giant Samsung. Park says she will withdraw her nominee for prime minister.
12 – The biggest protest yet takes place near the presidential palace in Seoul. Organizers say 500,000 people participate; police put the number at 190,000. Protests are planned in 40 other cities in South Korea and abroad.
13 – Prosecutors say they plan to question Park.
17 – South Korea’s parliament passes a bill to open up an independent enquiry into Park’s friendship with Choi. The legislation seeks 60 investigators and a special prosecutor to lead the case.
19 – Protestors again gather in Seoul.
20 – Prosecutors say Park is likely to have played a role in the corruption scandal but that they cannot indict her, as the country’s constitution guarantees the president immunity “except in cases of insurrection or treason.”
21 – The country’s largest opposition party says it will take steps to begin impeachment proceedings against Park.December
1 – South Korea’s ruling party pushes for Park to resign in April, saying presidential elections planned for the end of 2017 could be brought forward to June.
2 – The country’s three opposition parties say they will vote December 9 on impeachment, even if Park announces a plan to resign. Park plans to meet with members of her own ruling party over the weekend.
3 – Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators march within 100 metres of Park’s official residence.
6 – Park says she won’t immediately resign if impeached. Five thousand South Koreans file a lawsuit demanding compensation from Park for mental suffering caused by the scandal.
9 – Lawmakers including members of her own party vote to impeach Park
16 – In a 24-page document, Park’s lawyers argue that there is no legal foundation for her removal.
19 – Park’s influential friend Choi Soon Sil goes on trial on charges of abuse of authority and attempted fraud.January
3 – The first open hearing in Park’s impeachment trial is held. As expected, she does not attend.
February
17 – Samsung heir Lee Jae Yong is arrested over bribery allegations linked to the corruption scandal.
March
9 – Lee denies bribing Park and Choi on the first day of his trial
10 – The Constitional Court upholds Park’s impeachment - Illinois State Senator Pushes Bill Allowing Government To Confiscate Guns Without Due Process
Via Daniel Lang of SHTFPlan.com,
There are people in our government who are determined to chip away at our Second Amendment rights, and they are an insidious bunch.
Rarely do they make blatant gun grabbing attempts. Typically they push for policies that quietly set back gun rights. They like laws that merely set precedents without alarming the public, and they’ve been doing it successfully for decades.
The latest of these attempts comes from Illinois, one of the least gun friendly states in America. State Senator Julie Morrison has proposed a bill titled SB 1291, which would allow the government to confiscate firearms from citizens without any due process. According to Breitbart:
SB 1291 would create a “Lethal Order of Protection” whereby the firearms of Illinois residents could be confiscated if a family member or “law officer” files a petition stating the gun owner “poses an immediate and present danger of causing personal injury to himself, herself, or another by having … [a firearm] in his or her custody or control.”
SB 1291’s summary states:
[The bill] provides that the petition shall also describe the type, and location of any firearm or firearms presently believed by the petitioner to be possessed or controlled by the respondent. Provides that the petitioner may be a family member of the respondent or a law enforcement officer, who files a petition alleging that the respondent poses a danger of causing personal injury to himself, herself, or another by having in his or her custody or control, owning, purchasing, possessing, or receiving a firearm. Establishes factors that the court must consider before issuing a lethal violence order of protection. Provides for the issuance of ex parte orders and one year orders.
Basically if this bill passes, then a resident of Illinois could have his or her firearms confiscated if a family member alleges that the person in question is an immediate threat to himself or others. All they have to do is file a petition and report that allegation to the government. I say allegation, because under this bill, no real proof is required to take away someone’s firearms.
Moreover, the input and presence of the person who is targeted is not required during this process. If this happened to you, it wouldn’t even be your word against theirs. You wouldn’t be able to defend yourself in court at all.
However, what may be more alarming about this bill, is it that states that a “law enforcement officer” can file one of these petitions. Does that mean that the cops could have your weapons confiscated on a whim?
The gun grabbers in our society have tried to set a lot of bad legal precedents over the years. Let’s pray that this doesn’t become one of them.
- "It Can Only Disappoint" – What Wall Street Expects From Friday's Payrolls Report
Following Wednesday’s blowout ADP report, which printed some 40K jobs higher than the highest estimate, the only possibility for tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll report, the last major economic data point before the Fed’s March 15th rate hike announcement, is to disappoint, especially in terms of wages (which in light of the recent downward revision of Q1 GDP by the Atlanta Fed to 1.2% is not out of the question). That possibility, however, is slim to none if one looks at Wall Street’s forecasts, where virtually every sellside analyst boosted their NFP estimate in the hours after the ADP number. Still, with the market pricing in a 100% chance of a rate hike, only a very disappointing – think less than 100K – report will derail the Fed from hiking for the second time in three meetings.
Here are some of the more notable forecasts for tomorrow’s number::
- Westpac 170K
- Bank of America 185K
- BNP 185K
- Barclays 200K
- Deutsche Bank 200K
- Goldman Sachs 215K
- Nomura 235K
- Morgan Stanley 250K
Putting it all together, here is what Wall Street expects from the February payrolls report due out at 8:30am ET tomorrow morning:
- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: Exp. 193K (Prey. 227K, Dec. 157K)
- Unemployment Rate Exp. 4.70% (Prey. 4.80%, Dec. 4.70%)
- Average Hourly Earnings M/M Exp. 0.30% (Prey. 0.10%, Dec. 0.20%)
Consensus calls for an increase of 193K jobs in February, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.7% from 4.8%. Much of the focus could be on average hourly earnings for signs of inflationary pressure. Last month, average hourly earnings disappointed with Y/Y wage growth slowing to 2.5% from 2.9%. This month, average hourly earnings are expected to pick up to 2.7% Y/Y with monthly growth of 0.3%.
A look at recent data, courtesy of RanSquawk
Labor market data has continued to be strong. Initial jobless claims have fallen their lowest level since March 1973. The employment components from the two most recent ISM reports also indicate an improving labour market. The non-manufacturing ISM employment component showed increased from 54.7 to 55.2 while the manufacturing component showed further expansion, albeit at a slightly slower pace at 54.2. Wednesday’s ADP employment report showed a massive 298K jobs created in February, above the expected 190K, although there is often a large discrepancy between the ADP and the official Nonfarm Payrolls figures and it cannot be relied on as an accurate indicator of Friday’s report.
Factors arguing for a stronger report:
- Jobless claims. Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits moved lower, averaging 244k during the five weeks between the January and February payroll survey periods. This represents the lowest level of claims on this basis since the 1970s. The impact of seasonal adjustment difficulties on the jobless claims data is most pronounced in January, the sustained improvement in jobless claims through February suggests improvement in the underlying pace of layoffs, and in the labor market more broadly.
- ADP. ADP reported a 298k rise in private payroll employment in February, its fastest pace in nearly three years and well above expectations of +187k. Large surprises in the ADP report tend to be predictive of the subsequent nonfarm payroll surprise. Additionally, the 66k rise in ADP construction employment suggests scope for above-trend growth in weather-sensitive payrolls categories.
- Warm temperatures and minimal snowfall. February exhibited unseasonably warm weather and relatively limited snowfall, both of which are likely to boost payrolls in weather-sensitive industries. According to NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data, snowfall during the calendar month totaled 4.0 inches, the third lowest accumulation in a February since 2006. Snowfall was also unseasonably low during the payrolls survey week, and as shown in Exhibit 1, such a pattern is associated with strong growth in weather-sensitive industries, including construction, retail trade, and leisure and hospitality.
- Service sector surveys. Most employment components of service sector surveys either improved or remained at elevated levels in February, and all remained in expansionary territory. The ISM non-manufacturing employment component rose to a 5-month high (0.5pt to 55.2), the New York Fed index increased to a 18-month high (+1.8pt to +18.9, SA by GS), and the Dallas Fed employment component edged up (+1.1pt to +5.9). Meanwhile, the Philly Fed non-manufacturing employment index pulled back from a 1-year high (-7.1pt to +12.4) and the Richmond Fed employment index edged down (-1pt to +7), though both indices remained at encouraging levels. The key labor market subcomponent of the consumer confidence report also remained strong (-0.1pt to +5.9), less than a point below cycle highs. Service sector payroll employment increased 192k in January and has increased 165k on average over the last six months.
- Seasonals. Since 2010, February payroll growth has surprised positively relative to consensus in six of the seven instances, with an average surprise of +36k. This may suggest some additional upside risk to the extent the BLS seasonal factors have not fully evolved to reflect this tendency.
Factors arguing for a weaker report:
- Federal Hiring Freeze. The new administration’s hiring freeze for federal workers (excluding defense and public safety) went into effect on January 23rd, one week into the February payrolls survey period. Some departments may be able to circumvent the impact of the hiring freeze though reduced attrition or increased contracted hiring. However, news reports have indicated reduced government hiring in some subindustries/departments, such as shipbuilding and social assistance/child care. Accordingly, the hiring freeze may weigh on government payrolls in tomorrow’s report, with an overall drag in categories affected of 10k-15k.
- Labor Supply Constraints. Economists view the labor market as close to full employment, and as slack diminishes further, this should exert upward pressure on wages and potentially downward pressure on job growth – particularly as the unemployment rate in a given industry or geography falls meaningfully below its structural rate. In the February NFIB small business survey, 32% of firms reported having job openings that were hard to fill, the highest percentage since 2001. Additionally, the Beige Book for the March FOMC meeting included anecdotal evidence of more widespread labor scarcity, as some districts reported labor shortages of skilled workers and of workers in the leisure and hospitality, construction, and manufacturing sectors. Over the past two years, this trend toward diminished slack has coincided with slowing payrolls growth, raising the possibility that labor supply issues may already be constraining job growth at the margin. The right panel of the same exhibit compares job growth with labor market slack across industries. Below-average unemployment rates in 3Q16 were associated with below-trend job growth over the subsequent four months, potentially suggestive of labor supply effects.
Tentative Evidence that Labor Supply Constraints Are Beginning to Weigh on Job Growth
- Transportation jobs. Transportation and warehousing payrolls have seen elevated growth in December in recent years followed by softer growth or outright declines in January and February, a phenomenon likely driven by the combination of the secular shift toward online holiday sales and the slow evolution of the BLS seasonal factors. Payroll data this winter have so far exhibited the same pattern, and we expect tomorrow’s report to show restrained growth in the transportation and warehousing industry as a result.
- Job availability. The Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online (HWOL) report showed a sharp decrease in online job postings (-7%), the third consecutive monthly decline. However, we place limited weight on this indicator at the moment in light of research by Fed economists that suggests the HWOL ad count has been depressed by higher prices for online job ads.
Neutral Factors:
- Manufacturing sector surveys. The employment components of manufacturing surveys were mixed in February, though all remained in expansionary territory. The ISM manufacturing employment component pulled back from to a 30-month high (-1.9pt to 54.2), and the Philly Fed employment index also slowed (-1.7pt to +11.1). Meanwhile, the Kansas City Fed (+11pt to +17), Empire State (+3.7pt to +2.0), Dallas Fed (+3.5pt to +9.6), and Richmond Fed (+2pt to +10) employment indices improved. The Chicago PMI employment index also rebounded back into expansionary territory. Manufacturing payroll employment rose 5k in January, its second consecutive increase.
- Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas after our seasonal adjustment declined by 2k to 33k in February, though the level of announced layoffs remains somewhat above recent lows.
Fed Impact
The Fed speak in the week before the blackout period was consistent with a hike at the March meeting, but despite signalling rate increases going forward, most cautioned that path of rate increases will be gradual. Most have also stated that the labor market is at or near full employment and so focus will be on the wage data for expectations on the number of hikes this year. As mentioned previously, the average hourly earnings data disappointed last month but if earnings pick up faster than expected it could lift expectations for the number of rate hikes in 2017, with markets currently split between two to three hikes this year. The Fed’s most recent projections also saw most Committee members favouring either two or three hikes in 2017.
Market Reaction
As usual with the NFP report, there is often a kneejerk reaction to the headline payrolls number. A stronger than expected number historically sends the USD higher and Treasuries lower and vice versa for a weaker number, before markets digest some of the other details of the report.
If wages disappoint for the second month in a row, then markets may begin to ease back their hiking expectations for the rest of the year and we could see some steepening of the Treasury curve after the flattening observed in the wake of the strong ADP report on Wednesday. For markets to price out a rate hike in March, wage growth would probably need to slow markedly and the headline NFP number to fall well below 100K.
* * *
Finally, here is the all-important Goldman’s preview (exp. +215K):
- We estimate that February nonfarm payrolls increased 215k in February, following +227k in January and compared to the three-month moving average of +183k. Reasons to expect a strong report include favorable weather effects, the strong hiring trends indicated in the ADP employment report, and a further drop in jobless claims to their lowest levels since the 1970s.
- We estimate that the unemployment rate fell one tenth to 4.7%, driven by continued household employment growth and a potential pullback in the participation rate following last month’s 0.2pp rise. The January unemployment rate rose to 4.78% on an unrounded basis after hitting a cycle low of 4.65% in November.
- We also forecast average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month over month and 2.7% year over year, reflecting tightening labor markets and the continued impact of state-level minimum wage hikes.
- Labor market indicators generally strengthened in February, with a drop in jobless claims to four-decade lows, an acceleration in ADP employment growth to its fastest pace in nearly three years, and improvement in the ISM services employment index to a 5-month high. We also believe unseasonably warm temperatures and minimal snowfall boosted job growth in weather-sensitive industries. On the negative side, we look for a 10-15k drag in the government sector from the federal hiring freeze implemented in late January (we forecast +225k for private payrolls). Additionally, we believe diminished labor market slack may exert upward pressure on wages and possibly some downward pressure on job growth in certain industries.
- We estimate the unemployment rate fell one-tenth to 4.7%, driven by continued household employment growth and a potential pullback in the participation rate following last month’s 0.2pp rise. The January unemployment rate rose to 4.78% on an unrounded basis after hitting a cycle low of 4.65% in November.
- Finally, we estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month over month and 2.7% year over year, reflecting diminished labor market slack, firming wage growth, and the continued impact of January’s state-level minimum wage hikes, which affected 19 states and increased the effective national minimum wage by about $0.25 (to $8.50 per hour). In this context, we were surprised by the relatively muted wage growth in the January report (+0.1% mom), and we note the possibility of upward revisions or above-trend growth in tomorrow’s report.
- "They're Erupting": Alaskan Volcano Throws Ash 35,000 Feet Interrupting Commercial Flights
Via Mac Slavo of SHTFPlan.com,
Volcanic eruption in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands as seen from ISS.
Is a major seismic event headed our way?
There is no way to know for sure, but science warns that hotspots like the San Andreas fault in Southern California are “overdue” for the big one, which frequently occurs every hundred years or so. If the earth doesn’t release enough steam from time to time, larger pressures can build up, creating event more catastrophic disasters.
A volcano in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands has been erupting quite a bit lately – and has now had its biggest eruption so far in recent months, sending volcanic ash hurling some 35,000 feet into the air, high enough to disrupt commercial flights. That was the Bogoslof Volcano.
Alaska’s Bogoslof volcano explodes, warnings sent on North Asia-U.S. flights https://t.co/McjxxuXibT pic.twitter.com/MHMVDOnpvi
— CNBC International (@CNBCi) March 8, 2017
//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
It was a spectacular, if not unsettling event.
Meanwhile, there was a new lava outbreak that was observed in Hawaii.
Huge new lava outbreak at #Kilauea volcano, Hawaii & Large explosive eruption ejects ash 10.6 km (35 000 feet) at #Bogoslof, Alaska pic.twitter.com/FwWuIgOv8N
— magaly ferrer (@maga33141) March 8, 2017
//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
It seems clear that things are heating up – they are beginning to erupt.
Though things are not necessarily causally linked, there is often a chain of seismic disruptions that occur during a short span of time, and when things heat up in one part of, say, the Pacific Ring of Fire, things sometime explode elsewhere down the line.
Could the intense three hour eruption at Bogoslof Volcano be a sign of bigger events to come? There is frequent seismic activity in the Aleutian Islands, to be sure, but there is also the sense of something immense building up from inside an angry earth.
via RT:
An Alaskan volcano experienced its largest eruption to date and created a large ash cloud. For the past several months, Bogoslof Volcano has had minor eruptions, but the most recent was its strongest, sending ashes 35,000 feet above sea level.
Residents of the Aleutian Islands are under ash advisory …
The spectacle lasted three hours and was marked by 200 lightning strikes, until it “just shut off,” according to Wallace. While the event did not disrupt air traffic, that may have been sheer luck. Any eruption above 20,000 feet can pose a risk to flights traveling between Asia and the US. In addition, Bogoslof could again erupt at any time.
#Bogoslof volcanic ash cloud, 12:45 am March 8 ASKT. Cloud height >35K ft. Img by Dave Schneider, #USGS/AVO. https://t.co/YJkZa2ZT38 pic.twitter.com/FVE98ahxf8
#Alaska volcano erupts again, sending ash cloud over Aleutian Islands https://t.co/rdCX7ZDg6W (PSR) #Bogoslof pic.twitter.com/xLjGwS4gHH
— Irish Examiner (@irishexaminer) March 8, 2017
//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Are things heating up? Is something massive about to happen?
Stay vigilant, have your preps and escape routes ready, and steady yourself for what may well be trying times ahead.
- 31% Of College Students Spend Their Loans On Spring Break
As Washington D.C. liberals continue their fight for ‘free’ college education for all (which, of course, is just a nicer way of saying largely useless community college education crammed down the throats of taxpayers) and student loan forgiveness programs, a new study from LendEDU reveals some of the shocking realities behind where college students are really spending their $1.3 trillion worth of student debt.
Per a survey of 500 college co-eds, LendEDU found that 31% of students, or roughly 2.4 million kids, admitted to using student loan money to fund their binge drinking trips to Cancun and Daytona Beach for spring break.
According to the LendEDU poll, 30.60% of college students with student debt claim that they are using money they received from student loans to help pay for their spring break trip this year. For reference, you can use student loan funding for living expenses.
The National Center for Education Statistics calculated that 20.5 million students will be attending college this year in the United States. Orbitz reported that 55% of students will be going on spring break. Using this data, we can roughly calculate that 11,275,000 students will be going on spring break this year. And, it is estimated that 69% of all current college students use student loan debt by the time of graduation. By doing some additional arithmetic, we can calculate that roughly 7,779,750 student debtors are going on spring break this year.
Factoring in our data, and assuming the claims made in our survey are accurate, this means that 2.38 million students are using money received from student loans to pay for their spring break excursion this year.
But don’t worry yourselves you silly taxpayers…it’s only $1.3 trillion (and counting) of debt that you’ll soon have to cover.
Adding insult to injury, 24% of students admitted to using their student loan money for alcohol and 7% use those federally-subsidized checks for drugs.
Nearly a quarter (23.80%) of respondents stated that they have used money received from student loans to pay for drinking some type of alcohol. This answer also included spending money at bars.
A third (33.40%) of students answered that they have used money received from student loans to pay for clothing and other accessories.
Similarly, the same amount (33.40%) of students said that they have used money received from student loans to pay for restaurants and take-out.
6.60% of respondents responded saying that they have used money received from student loans to pay for drugs.
Finally, 5.60% of students that participated in our survey stated that they used money received from student loans on gambling or sports betting.
“Students should minimize their borrowing during their college years and live a sparse lifestyle — but no one wants to hear that when their fraternity brothers or sorority sisters are packing up to Cabo for the week,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst of Bankrate.com. “It’s like putting spring break on a credit card, but this one is subsidized by taxpayers,” McBride added.
Meanwhile, as we pointed out before (see “Obama Student Loan Foregiveness Plan To Cost Taxpayers $137 Billion, GAO Finds“), the GAO currently estimates that taxpayers will ultimately have to cover $137 billion of student loan debt outstanding…an obligation we’re certain will only grow over time.
So fight on, Bernie…and while you continue your crusade for “free college,” America’s entitled millennials will be laughing all the way to Cancun.
Digest powered by RSS Digest
Saving...