- An Asian Bretton Woods?
An Asian Bretton Woods?
Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,
The financial war between Russia with China’s tacit backing on one side, and America and her NATO allies on the other has escalated rapidly. It appears that President Putin was thinking several steps ahead when he launched Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
We have seen sanctions fail.
We have seen Russia achieve record export surpluses. We have seen the rouble become the strongest currency on the foreign exchanges.
We are seeing the west enter a new round of European monetary inflation to pay everyone’s energy bills. The euro, yen, and sterling are already collapsing — the dollar will be next. From Putin’s point of view, so far, so good.
Russia has progressed her power over Asian nations, including populous India and Iran. She has persuaded Middle Eastern oil and gas producers that their future lies with Asian markets, and not Europe. She is subsidising Asia’s industrial revolution with discounted energy. Thanks to the west’s sanctions, Russia is on its way to confirming Halford Mackinder’s predictions made over a century ago, that Russia is the true geopolitical centre of the world.
There is one piece in Putin’s jigsaw yet to be put in place: a new currency system to protect Russia and her allies from an approaching western monetary crisis.
This article argues that under cover of the west’s geopolitical ineptitude, Putin is now assembling a new gold-backed multi-currency system by combining plans for a new Asian trade currency with his new Moscow World Standard for gold.
Currency developments under the radar
Unreported by western media, there are some interesting developments taking place in Asia over the future of currencies. Earlier this summer, it emerged that Sergei Glazyev, a senior Russian economist and Minister in charge of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EAEU), was leading a committee planning a new trade currency for the Eurasian Economic Union.
As put forward in Russian and EAEU media, the new currency is to be comprised of a mixture of national currencies and commodities. A weighting of some sort was suggested to reflect the relative importance of the currencies and commodities traded between them. At the same time, the new trade settlement currency was to be available to any other nation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the expanding BRICS membership. The ambition is for it to become an Asia-wide replacement for the dollar.
More specifically, the purpose is to do away with the dollar for trade settlements on cross-border transactions between participants. It is worth noting that any dollar transaction is reflected in US banks through the correspondent banking system, potentially giving the US authorities undesirable economic intelligence, and information on sanction-busting and other activities deemed illegal or undesirable by the US authorities. Furthermore, any transaction involving US dollars becomes a matter for the US legal system, giving US politicians the authority to intervene wherever the dollar is used.
As well as removing these disadvantages, through the inclusion of a basket of commodities there appears to be an acceptance that the new trade currency must be more stable in terms of its commodity purchasing power than exists with that of the dollar. But we can immediately detect flaws in the outline proposal. The mooted inclusion of national currencies in the basket is not only an unnecessary complication, but any nation joining it would presumably trigger a wholesale rebalancing of the currency’s composition.
Including national currencies is a preposterous suggestion, as is any suggestion that the commodity element should be weighted by trade volumes transacted between participating states. Instead, an unweighted average of energy, precious metals, and base metals makes more sense, but even that does not go far enough. The reasons are illustrated by the two charts in Figure 1.
The upper chart shows baskets of different categories of commodities indexed and priced in dollars. Between them, they represent a wide range of commodities and raw materials. These baskets are considerably less volatile than their individual components. For example, since April 2020 oil has risen from a distorted minus figure to a high of $130, whereas the energy basket has risen only 6.3 times, because other components have not risen nearly as much as crude oil and some components might be rising while others might be falling. Agriculture raw materials are comprised of cotton, timber, wool, rubber, and hides, not raw materials liable to undesirable seasonality. But the average of the four categories is considerably more stable than its components (the black line).
We are moving towards price stability. However, all commodities are priced in US dollars, which being undesirable, cannot be avoided. Pricing in gold, which is legal money, eventually resolves this problem because it can be fixed against participating currencies. The result of pricing the commodity categories in gold and the average of them is shown in the lower chart.
Since 1992, the average (the black line) has varied between 0.37 and 1.66, and is currently at 0.82, or 18% less than in January 1992. This is as stable as it gets, and even this low volatility would probably be less if the dollar wasn’t itself so volatile and the gold price manipulated by nay-saying western authorities. To further illustrate these points, Figure 2 shows the dollar’s volatility in terms of crude oil.
Before the abandonment of Bretton Woods in 1971, the price of oil hardly changed. Since then, measured by gold the dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing power. Furthermore, the chart shows that it is the dollar which is extremely volatile and not oil, because the price of oil in gold is relatively constant (down only 20% from 1950), while in dollars it is up 33.6 times with some wild price swings along the way. Critics of measuring prices in gold ignore the fact that legal money is gold and not paper currencies or bank credit: attempts by governments and their epigones to persuade us otherwise are propaganda only.
Therefore, Glazyev should drop currencies from the proposed basket entirely and strive to either price a basket of non-seasonal commodities in gold, or alternatively simply reference the new currency to gold in a daily fix. And as the charts above confirm, there is little point in using a basket of commodities priced in dollars or gold when it is far simpler for the EAEU nations and for anyone else wishing to participate in the new trade currency to use a trade currency directly tied to the gold price. It would amount to a new Asian version of a Bretton Woods arrangement and would need no further adjustment.
Attributing them to excessive credit, from recent statements by President Putin it is clear he has a better understanding of currencies and the west’s inflationary problems than western economists. Intellectually, he has long demonstrated an appreciation of the relationship between money, that is only gold, and currency and credit. His knowledge was further demonstrated by his insistence that the “unfriendlies” pay for energy in roubles, taking control of the media of energy exchange into Russia’s own hands and away from those of his enemies.
In short, Putin appears to understand that gold is money and that the rest is unreliable, weaponizable, credit. So, why does he not just command a new trade currency to be created, backed by gold?
Enter the new Moscow gold standard
Logic suggests that a gold-backed currency will be the outcome of Glazyev’s EAEU committee’s trade currency deliberations after all, because of a subsequent announcement from Moscow concerning a new Russian bullion market.
In accordance with western sanctions, the London Bullion Market refused to accept Russian mined and processed gold. It was then natural for Russia to propose a new gold market based in Moscow with its own standards. It is equally sensible for Moscow to set up a price fixing committee, replicating that of the LBMA. But instead of it being the basis for a far larger unallocated gold deposit account offering by Russian and other banks, it will be a predominantly physical market.
Based in Moscow, with a new market called the Moscow International Precious Metals Exchange, the Moscow Gold Standard will incorporate some of the LBMA’s features, such as good delivery lists with daily, or twice daily fixings. The new exchange is therefore being promoted as a logical replacement for the LBMA.
But could that be a cover, with the real objective being to provide a gold link to the new trade currency planned by Glazyev’s EAEU committee? Timing suggests that this may indeed be the case, but we will only know for sure as events unfold.
If it is to be backed by gold, the considerations behind setting up a new trade currency are fairly straightforward. There is the Chinese one kilo bar four-nines standard, which is widely owned, has already been adopted throughout Asia, and is traded even on Comex. Given that China is Russia’s long-term partner, that is likely to be the standard unit. The adoption of the Chinese standard in the new Moscow exchange is logical, simplifying the relationship with the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and streamlining fungibility between contracts, arbitrage, and delivery.
Geopolitics suggest that the simple proposition behind the establishment of a new Moscow exchange will fit in with a larger trans-Asia plan and is unlikely to move at the glacial pace of developments between Russia and China to which we have become accustomed. The gold question has become bound up in more rapid developments triggered by Russia’s belligerence over Ukraine, and the sanctions which quickly followed.
There can be little doubt that this must be leading to a seismic shift in gold policy for the Russian Chinese partnership. The Chinese in particular have demonstrated an unhurried patience that befits a nation with a sense of its long history and destiny. Putin is more of a one-man act. Approaching seventy years old, he cannot afford to be so patient and is showing a determination to secure a legacy in his lifetime as a great Russian leader. While China has made the initial running with respect to gold policy, Putin is now pushing the agenda more forcefully.
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the strategy was to let the west make all the geopolitical and financial mistakes. For Putin perhaps, the lesson of history was informed by Napoleon’s march to the gates of Moscow, his pyrrhic victory at Borodino, and his defeat by the Russian winter. Hitler made the same mistake with Operation Barbarossa. From Putin’s viewpoint, the lesson was clear — Russia’s enemies defeat themselves. It was repeated in Afghanistan, where the American-led NATO enemy was conquered by its own hubris without Putin having to lift so much as a finger. That is why Russia is Mackinder’s Pivot Area of the World Island. It cannot be attacked by navies, and supply line requirements for armies make Russia’s defeat well-nigh impossible
Following the Ukraine invasion, Putin’s financial strategy has become more aggressive, and is potentially at odds with China’s economic policy. Being cut off from western markets, Putin is now proactive, while China which exports goods to them probably remains more cautious. But China knows that western capitalism bears the seeds of its own destruction, which would mean the end of the dollar and the other major fiat currencies. An economic policy based on exports to capitalistic nations would be a passing phase.
China’s gold policy was aways an insurance policy against a dollar collapse, realising that she must not be blamed for the west’s financial destruction by announcing a gold standard for the yen in advance of it. It would be a nuclear equivalent in a financial war, only an action to be taken as a last resort.
Developments in Russia have changed that. It is clear to the Russians, and most likely the Chinese, that credit inflation is now pushing the dollar into a currency crisis in the next year or two. Preparations to protect the rouble and the yuan from the final collapse of the dollar, long taught in Marxist universities as inevitable, must assume a new urgency. It would be logical to start with a new trade settlement currency as a testbed for national currencies in Asia, and for it to be set up in such a way that it would permit member states to adopt gold standards for their own currencies as well.
Possession of bullion is key
The move away from western fiat currencies to gold backed Asian currencies requires significant gold bullion ownership at the least. The only members, associates, and dialog partners of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the EAEU whose central banks have not increased their gold reserves since the Lehman failure when the credit expansion of dollars began in earnest, are minor states. Since then, between them they have added 4,645 tonnes to their reserves, while all the other central banks account for only 781 tonnes of additional gold reserves.
But central bank reserves are only part of the story, with nations running other, often secret national bullion accounts not included in reserves. The appendix to this article shows why and how China almost certainly accumulated an undeclared quantity of bullion, likely to be in the region of 25,000 tonnes by 2002 and probably more since.
Since 2002, when the Shanghai Gold Exchange opened and China’s citizens were permitted for the first time to own gold, gold delivered into public hands has totalled a further amount of over 20,000 tonnes. While the bulk of this is jewellery and some has been returned to the SGE as scrap for re-refining, it is clear that the authorities have encouraged Chinese citizens to retain gold for themselves, which traditionally has been real money in China.
According to Simon Hunt of Simon Hunt Strategic Services, as well as declared reserves of 2,301 tonnes Russia also holds gold bullion in its Gosfund (the State Fund of Russia) bringing its holdings up to 12,000 tonnes. This is significantly greater than the 8,133 tonnes declared by the US Treasury, over which there are widespread doubts concerning the veracity of its true quantity.
Obviously, the Asian partnership has a very different view of gold from the American hegemon. Furthermore, in recent months evidence has confirmed what gold bugs have claimed all along, that the Bank for International Settlements and major bullion operators such as JPMorgan Chase have indulged in a price suppression scheme to discourage gold ownership and to divert bullion demand into synthetic unallocated accounts.
The secrecy that surrounds reporting of gold reserves to the IMF raises further suspicions over the true position. Furthermore, there are leases and swaps between central banks, the BIS, and bullion dealers that lead to double counting and bullion recorded as being in possession of governments and their central banks but being held by other parties.
As long ago as 2002 when the gold price was about $300 per ounce, Frank Veneroso, who as a noted analyst spent considerable time and effort identifying central bank swaps and leases, concluded that anything between 10,000 and 15,000 tonnes of government and central bank gold reserves were out on lease or swapped — that is up to almost half the total official global gold reserves at that time. His entire speech is available on the Gold Antitrust Action Committee website, but this is the introduction to his reasoning:
“Let’s begin with an explanation of gold banking and gold derivatives.
“It is a simple, simple idea. Central banks have bars of gold in a vault. It’s their own vault, it’s the Bank of England’s vault, it’s the New York Fed’s vault. It costs them money for insurance – it costs them money for storage— and gold doesn’t pay any interest. They earn interest on their bills of sovereigns, like US Treasury Bills. They would like to have a return as well on their barren gold, so they take the bars out of the vault and they lend them to a bullion bank. Now the bullion bank owes the central bank gold—physical gold—and pays interest on this loan of perhaps 1%. What do these bullion bankers do with this gold? Does it sit in their vault and cost them storage and insurance? No, they are not going to pay 1% for a gold loan from a central bank and then have a negative spread of 2% because of additional insurance and storage costs on their physical gold. They are intermediaries—they are in the business of making money on financial intermediation. So they take the physical gold and they sell it spot and get cash for it. They put that cash on deposit or purchase a Treasury Bill. Now they have a financial asset—not a real asset—on the asset side of their balance sheet that pays them interest—6% against that 1% interest cost on the gold loan to the central bank. What happened to that physical gold? Well, that physical gold was Central Bank bars, and it went to a refinery and that refinery refined it, upgraded it, and poured it into different kinds of bars like kilo bars that go to jewellery factories who then make jewellery out of it. That jewellery gets sold to individuals. That’s where those physical bars have wound up—adorning the women of the world…
“We have gotten, albeit crude, estimates of gold borrowings from the official sector from probably more than 1/3 of all the bullion banks. We went to bullion dealers, and we asked, “Are these guys major bullion bankers, medium bullion bankers, or small-scale bullion bankers?” We classified them accordingly and from that we have extrapolated a total amount of gold lending from our sample. That exercise has pointed to exactly the same conclusion as all of our other evidence and inference—i.e., something like 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes of borrowed gold.”
Veneroso’s findings were stunning. But two decades later, we have no idea of the current position. The market has changed substantially since 2002, and today it is thought that swaps and leases are often by book entry, rather than physical delivery of bullion into markets. But the implications are clear: if Russia or China cared to declare their true position and made a move towards backing their currencies with gold or linking them to gold credibly, it would be catastrophic for the dollar and western fiat currencies generally. It would amount to a massive bear squeeze on the west’s longstanding gold versus fiat policy. And remember, gold is money, and the rest is credit, as John Pierpont Morgan said in 1912 in evidence to Congress. He was not stating his opinion, but a legal fact.
In a financial crisis, the accumulated manipulation of bullion markets since the 1970s is at significant risk of becoming unwound. The imbalance in bullion holdings between the Russian Chinese camp and the west would generate the equivalent of a financial nuclear event. This is why it is so important to understand that instead of being a longstop insurance policy against the Marxist prediction of capitalism’s ultimate failure, it appears that the combination of planning for a new trade currency for Asian nations centred on members of the EAEU, coinciding with the introduction of a new Moscow-based bullion standard, is now pre-empting financial developments in the west. That being the case, a financial nuclear bomb is close to being triggered.
* * *
Appendix
China’s gold policy.
China actually took its first deliberate step towards eventual domination of the gold market as long ago as June 1983, when regulations on the control of gold and silver were passed by the State Council. The following Articles extracted from the English translation set out the objectives very clearly:
Article 1. These Regulations are formulated to strengthen control over gold and silver, to guarantee the State’s gold and silver requirements for its economic development and to outlaw gold and silver smuggling and speculation and profiteering activities.
Article 3. The State shall pursue a policy of unified control, monopoly purchase and distribution of gold and silver. The total income and expenditure of gold and silver of State organs, the armed forces, organizations, schools, State enterprises, institutions, and collective urban and rural economic organizations (hereinafter referred to as domestic units) shall be incorporated into the State plan for the receipt and expenditure of gold and silver.
Article 4. The People’s Bank of China shall be the State organ responsible for the control of gold and silver in the People’s Republic of China.
Article 5. All gold and silver held by domestic units, with the exception of raw materials, equipment, household utensils and mementos which the People’s Bank of China has permitted to be kept, must be sold to the People’s Bank of China. No gold and silver may be personally disposed of or kept without authorization.
Article 6. All gold and silver legally gained by individuals shall come under the protection of the State.
Article 8. All gold and silver purchases shall be transacted through the People’s Bank of China. No unit or individual shall purchase gold and silver unless authorised or entrusted to do so by the People’s Bank of China.
Article 12. All gold and silver sold by individuals must be sold to the People’s Bank of China.
Article 25. No restriction shall be imposed on the amount of gold and silver brought into the People’s Republic of China, but declaration and registration must be made to the Customs authorities of the People’s Republic of China upon entry.
Article 26. Inspection and clearance by the People’s Republic of China Customs of gold and silver taken or retaken abroad shall be made in accordance with the amount shown on the certificate issued by the People’s Bank of China or the original declaration and registration form made on entry. All gold and silver without a covering certificate or in excess of the amount declared and registered upon entry shall not be allowed to be taken out of the country.
These articles make it clear that only the People’s Bank was authorised to acquire or sell gold on behalf of the state, without limitation, and that citizens owning or buying gold were not permitted to do so and must sell any gold in their possession to the People’s Bank.
Additionally, China has deliberately developed her gold mine production regardless of cost, becoming the largest producer by far in the world.[ii] State-owned refineries process this gold along with doré imported from elsewhere. Virtually none of this gold leaves China, so that the gold owned today between the state and individuals continues to accumulate.
The regulations quoted above formalised the State’s monopoly over all gold and silver which is exercised through the Peoples Bank, and they allow the free importation of gold and silver but keep exports under very tight control. The intent behind the regulations is not to establish or permit the free trade of gold and silver, but to control these commodities in the interest of the state.
This being the case, the growth of Chinese gold imports recorded as deliveries to the public since 2002, when the Shanghai Gold Exchange was established and the public then permitted to buy gold, is only the more recent evidence of a deliberate act of policy embarked upon thirty-nine years ago. China had been accumulating gold for nineteen years before she allowed her own nationals to buy when private ownership was finally permitted. Furthermore, the bullion was freely available, because in seventeen of those years, gold was in a severe bear market fuelled by a combination of supply from central bank disposals, leasing, and increasing mine production, all of which I estimate totalled about 59,000 tonnes. The two largest buyers for all this gold for much of the time were private buyers in the Middle East and China’s government, with additional demand identified from India and Turkey. The breakdown from these sources and the likely demand are identified in the table below:
In another context, the cost of China’s 25,000 tonnes of gold equates to roughly 10% of her exports over the period, and the eighties and early nineties in particular also saw huge capital inflows when multinational corporations were building factories in China. However, the figure for China’s gold accumulation is at best informed speculation. But given the determination of the state to acquire gold expressed in the 1983 regulations and by its subsequent actions, it is clear China had deliberately accumulated a significant undeclared stockpile by 2002.
So far, China’s long-term plans for the acquisition of gold appear to have achieved some important objectives. To date, additional deliveries to the public through the SGE now total over 20,000 tonnes.
China’s motives
China’s motives for taking control of the gold bullion market have almost certainly evolved. The regulations of 1983 make sense as part of a forward-looking plan to ensure that some of the benefits of industrialisation would be accumulated as a risk-free national asset. This reasoning is similar to that of the Arab nations capitalising on the oil-price bonanza only ten years earlier, which led them to accumulate their hoard, mainly held in private as opposed to government hands, for the benefit of future generations. However, as time passed the world has changed substantially both economically and politically.
2002 was a significant year for China, when geopolitical considerations entered the picture. Not only did the People’s Bank establish the Shanghai Gold Exchange to facilitate deliveries to private investors, but this was the year the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation formally adopted its charter. This merger of security and economic interests with Russia has bound Russia and China together with a number of resource-rich Asian states into an economic bloc. When India, Iran, Mongolia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan join (as they now have or are already committed to do), the SCO will cover more than half the world’s population. And inevitably the SCO’s members are looking for an alternative trade settlement system to using the US dollar.
At some stage China with her SCO partner, Russia, might force the price of gold higher as part of their currency strategy. You can argue this from an economic point of view on the basis that possession of properly priced gold will give her a financial dominance over global trade at a time when we are trashing our fiat currencies, or more simply that there’s no point in owning an asset and suppressing its value for ever. From 2002 there evolved a geopolitical argument: both China and Russia having initially wanted to embrace American and Western European capitalism no longer sought to do so, seeing us as soft enemies instead. The Chinese public were then encouraged, even by public service advertising, to buy gold, helping to denude the west of her remaining bullion stocks and to provide market liquidity in China.
What is truly amazing is that the western economic and political establishment have dismissed the importance of gold and ignored all the warning signals. They do not seem to realise the power they have given China and Russia to create financial chaos as a consequence of gold price suppression. If they do so, which seems to be only a matter of time, then London’s fractional reserve system of unallocated gold accounts would simply collapse, leaving Shanghai as the only major physical market.
This is probably the final link in China’s long-standing gold strategy, and through it a planned domination of the global economy in partnership with Russia and the other SCO nations. But as noted above, recent events have brought this outcome forward.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 23:40 - DoD To Boost Ammunition Production After Ukraine War Depletes US Stockpiles
DoD To Boost Ammunition Production After Ukraine War Depletes US Stockpiles
The Pentagon needs to rapidly increase munitions purchases if they want to be prepared for a shooting war with Russia and/or China after depleting stockpiles due to large transfers to Ukraine.
Since the start of the war, the US has transferred 806,000 shells of 155mm howitzers and 108,000 shells for 105mm guns, according to the Defense Department figures. That’s nearly one million shells in six months, and the figure does not factor in missiles and other precision-guided rockets.
As of June, Ukrainian forces fired about 6,000 shells per day at Russian forces. Artillery in warfare is very important, but there’s no way Ukraine can manufacture such shells at scale, so the US is quickly burning through its ammunition stockpile.
#Ukraine: Ukrainian artillerymen firing two US-supplied M982 Excalibur 155mm guided extended-range projectiles (made in 2011) from a M777A2 howitzer.
We can also see the projectiles being programmed using the Enhanced Portable Inductive Artillery Fuze Setter (EPIAFS). pic.twitter.com/0sPXZ1nubI— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) September 7, 2022
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#Ukraine: One of the earliest visual confirmations of 🇺🇸 M982 Excalibur 155mm guided extended-range projectiles in use with the Ukrainian army – here we can see a Ukrainian M777A2 firing at least 3 of them recently.
The projectiles can be IDed by the very distinctive case. pic.twitter.com/69x95zXduS
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) September 3, 2022
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US defense officials told WSJ that stockpiles of 155mm shells are “uncomfortably low” after months and months of arming Ukraine.
The Pentagon has been slow to replenish its arsenal and may jeopardize readiness for a broader conflict with top superpowers, such as Russia and China.
That’s why Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante revealed Friday that the US plans to increase the production capacity of 155mm ammunition from 14,000 to 36,000 shells per month over the next three years.
“Right now, the 155 [mm] munitions are [produced] at about 14,400 a month, and we have plans working with the contractor to get that in increments ultimately up to 36,000 a month by about three years. It’s going to be in steps,” LaPlante said during a press conference.
The Army has requested lawmakers on Capitol Hill for an extra $500 million a year in upgrade efforts for ammunition plants, WSJ said, quoting defense officials.
Earlier this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced another $2 billion in military weapons for Ukraine, putting the total dollar amount American taxpayers have shelled out for the war at approximately $15 billion under the Biden administration.
A looming ammunition shortage emerges as the Biden administration has become the military-industrial complex’s best ‘salesperson’ (to be politically correct). Biden’s weapon deals with Ukraine are so hot that the US is also “running low” on anti-tank missiles.
Congrats to Biden and the Democrats for empowering the military-industrial complex and arming one of the world’s most corrupt countries as billions of US taxpayers’ dollars slide into a black hole in Eastern Europe.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 23:20 - Expert Warns US Descending Into 'Anarchy' Amid Heightened Distrust Of DOJ, Law Enforcement
Expert Warns US Descending Into ‘Anarchy’ Amid Heightened Distrust Of DOJ, Law Enforcement
Authored by John Ransom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A legal expert has warned that the country risks descending into “anarchy” amid escalating criticism of federal law enforcement bodies in the wake of the FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago.
Attorney General nominee Merrick Garland is sworn-in during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee in the Hart Senate Office Building on Feb. 22, 2021. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images) Facing heated allegations of bias, the Department of Justice (DOJ) on Aug. 30 banned political activity of all non-career, political appointees at agency.
“We must do all we can to maintain public trust and ensure that politics—both in fact and appearance—does not compromise or affect the integrity of our work,” Garland wrote in a memo to DOJ employees announcing the ban against going to political events before the mid-term elections.
The ban came as public distrust of federal law enforcement agencies have trended to low levels, with 53 percent of voters agreeing with a statement that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is “Joe Biden’s Gestapo,” according to a survey by pollster Rasmussen conducted on Aug. 15 and 16.
The survey of 1,000 U.S. likely voters also showed that 44 percent of those polled now view the FBI less favorably after the agency conducted a raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home and club last month over documents the government alleges Trump doesn’t have permission to hold.
Overall, only 36 percent of likely voters disagree with the description of the FBI as a “Gestapo” that benefits President Joe Biden.
The DOJ ban also came a few days before Biden took to the TV airwaves with rhetoric attacking Trump-supporting Republicans.
In a Sept. 1 speech given in the shadow of Philadelphia’s Liberty Hall, Biden warned against “MAGA Republicans” who “live not in the light of truth but in the shadow of lies.”
‘Spiraling to Anarchy’
“We are spiraling to anarchy, and we have to take the politics out of the positions by people of power within our legislative and executive branch,” attorney Sandra Spurgeon, who has litigated hundreds of cases to a verdict, told The Epoch Times.
Spurgeon, who supports the DOJ ban, said that Garland had no choice but to do something to try to restore the public’s respect for law enforcement. She warned that the leadership of the DOJ and the FBI “live a very different life than you and I do.”
“They don’t think about the same things on the level that we would think of things because they have been elevated into a state where they have lost the appreciation of impartiality,” Surgeon added about top government officials targeted in the ban.
“And quite frankly, they just don’t care,” she added.
And it’s that out-of-touch behavior by our political class that has caused the crisis that necessitated the DOJ ban, one former U.S. special agent told The Epoch Times.
“The issue is that a Biden appointee, the U.S. Attorney for the state of Massachusetts, showed up at a Joe Biden fundraising event where First Lady Jill Biden was appearing,” Eric Caron, who previously worked as an agent for the U.S. Treasury and for the Department of Homeland Security said about the impetus for the political ban by the Attorney General.
“She even used a government vehicle,” to get to the event, Caron added, all of which could be a violation of the Hatch Act ban on electioneering.
The electioneering claim is under investigation by the U.S. Office of Special Counsel after the case was referred to the DOJ by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) after Rollins, who had a fractious confirmation process, showed up to the Biden fundraiser.
Politicization Claims
Others have wondered if the ban, as well as another DOJ memo issued on the same day reiterating a policy restricting communications with Congress could be an attempt to intimidate so-called whistleblowers within the FBI and DOJ.
“Ever since we told you that FBI whistleblowers had begun contacting Members of Congress to report on political pressure from high-ranking FBI officials to falsely label some investigations and run interference on others to serve a political agenda, Attorney General Merrick Garland has been very busy trying to shut them down, and anyone else who might expose what’s going on,” noted the American Center for Law and Justice, run by former Trump attorney Jay Sekulow.
But even after discounting the possible partisan motives behind the moves, the gesture will be inadequate in regaining the trust and confidence of the American people, said one skeptic.
Under Garland, there have been a number of highly publicized cases that seem to indicate extreme politicization in the DOJ, Mike Davis of the Article III Project (A3P), which promotes constitutionalist judges and the rule of law, told The Epoch Times.
One such episode, according to Davis, included an October 2021 memo by Garland foreshadowing “a series of measures designed to address the rise in criminal conduct directed toward school personnel.”
The DOJ memo came after the National School Boards Association, a key ally of the Democrats, wrote a letter to Biden, complaining that parents who showed up at school board meetings put school personnel “under an immediate threat” of violence. The association later apologized for the letter. Garland, later testifying at a House Judiciary Committee hearing, said that the DOJ hadn’t been told by the White House to issue the memo.
Read more here…
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 23:00 - Is A US Civil War On The Horizon?
Is A US Civil War On The Horizon?
In a recent response to the FBI’s recovering of classified documents from Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence, South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham predicted “riots in the streets” if the former president is indicted over his retention of the materials after leaving the White House.
As Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes, there have been rumblings of warning signs from some observers for some time that the U.S. could get dragged into a civil war if it continues on its route of growing political and social division – concerns only amplified in the wake of the January 6 storming of the Capitol.
By now, the impression that a civil war could be brewing has spread to the general public, and as a new Gallup poll indicates, to a large extent.
You will find more infographics at Statista
When looking at all adult U.S. citizens responding to the survey, 43 percent said they think that a civil war is at least somewhat likely in their country in the coming decade.
As the chart above shows, those identifying as ‘strong Democrats’ were slightly more optimistic overall, but 40 percent still held this position. A majority of ‘strong Republicans’ on the other hand said they think civil war is coming – 54 percent.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 22:40 - Law-Abiding Gun Owners Ignored By Media, Maligned By Politicians
Law-Abiding Gun Owners Ignored By Media, Maligned By Politicians
Authored by John R. Lott Jr. via RealClear Wire (emphasis ours),
In celebration of New York’s new gun control law taking effect on September 1, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul claimed: “This whole concept that a good guy with a gun will stop the bad guys with a gun, it doesn’t hold up. And the data bears this out, so that theory is over.”
At the same press conference, New York City Mayor Eric Adams warned that more concealed carry permits might lead to an increase in violence at Times Square, even though Times Square remains a gun-free zone for permit holders.
This is a typical response from Democrats. After each mass public shooting, Democratic elected officials push for more gun control. They ignore examples, even those that generated significant public attention, in which armed bystanders saved many lives. They also disregard a grim aspect of such crimes: Most mass shooters want to commit suicide in a way that will gain the most media coverage. The more people they kill, the more coverage they will get.
The shooters may be callous and crazy, but they are rational enough to realize that they can kill more people if their victims are defenseless.
Like so many other mass public shooters, the Buffalo shooter wrote in his manifesto: “Areas where CCW permits are low may also be good areas of attack.” The national media refuses to report other explicit statements by attackers. Nor do they report the fact that 94% of mass public shootings occur in places where civilians are banned from having guns.
Surveys show that criminologists and economists had the same top four preferred policies for stopping mass public shootings. On a 1-to-10 scale, American criminologists rated the following policies most highly: Allow K-12 teachers to carry concealed handguns (6.0), allow military personnel to carry on military bases (5.6), encourage the elimination of gun-free zones (5.3), and relax federal regulations that pressure companies to create gun-free zones (5.0).
The top four policies for economists were the same, but in a different order: Encourage the elimination of gun-free zones (7.9), relax federal regulations that pressure companies to create gun-free zones (7.8), allow K-12 teachers to carry concealed handguns (7.7), and allow military personnel to carry on military bases (7.7).
As important as police are to fighting crime, increased policing didn’t make the top of the list. That’s because stopping mass public shootings is a uniquely difficult challenge. For police, wearing a uniform is often akin to wearing a neon sign saying, “Shoot me first.” That makes officers easy targets for attackers. The benefit of concealed carry is that the attackers won’t know who is a threat to them.
“A deputy in uniform has an extremely difficult job in stopping these attacks,” said Sarasota County, Florida, Sheriff Kurt Hoffman. “These terrorists have huge strategic advantages in determining the time and place of attacks. They can wait for a deputy to leave the area, or pick an undefended location. Even when police or deputies are in the right place at the right time, those in uniform who can be readily identified as guards may as well be holding up neon signs saying, ‘Shoot me first.’ My deputies know that we cannot be everywhere.”
Given how infrequently the news media covers defensive gun uses, it isn’t surprising that Gov. Hochul believes that defensive gun uses are rare. But survey estimates show on average that Americans use guns defensively about 2 million times a year. According to academic estimates, defensive gun uses – including instances when guns are simply shown to deter a crime – are four to five times more common than gun crimes.
Hochul also worries about permit holders themselves committing crime, but her fears are misplaced. New York doesn’t provide data on the rate at which permit holders have their permits revoked, but we do have that data for other states. In the 19 states with comprehensive data, the average revocation rate for any reason is one-tenth of 1%. Typically, permit revocations occur because someone moved, died, or forgot to bring a permit while carrying. In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of firearms-related violations at one-twelfth the rate of police officers.
The governor might also be surprised to learn that the general public disagrees with her. An early July survey by the Trafalgar Group showed a plurality of American general election voters believe that armed citizens are the most effective element in protecting you and your family in the case of a mass shooting. First on the list was “armed citizens” at 42%, followed by “local police” (25%) and “federal agents” (10%).
Police are essential to keeping the peace and bringing criminals to justice, but in most cases they can’t directly protect people. That’s why Gov. Hochul owes the residents of her state the chance to protect themselves.
John R. Lott Jr. is a contributor to RealClearInvestigations, focusing on voting and gun rights. His articles have appeared in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, New York Post, USA Today, and Chicago Tribune. Lott is an economist who has held research and/or teaching positions at the University of Chicago, Yale University, Stanford, UCLA, Wharton, and Rice.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 22:20 - Wells Fargo Screws Sex Workers, Cancels Accounts Over 'Risks'
Wells Fargo Screws Sex Workers, Cancels Accounts Over ‘Risks’
Wells Fargo may have had no problem scamming clients into accounts without consent (until they got caught and were fined $185 million), but when it comes to sex workers, the bank is suddenly pious.
As Rolling Stone reports, sex workers across the country are reporting that their Wells Fargo accounts have been terminated with no explanation – aside from referencing “ongoing reviews of its account relationships in connection with the Bank’s responsibilities to manage risks,” effective immediately.
In the letters, which are dated August 25 and copies of which were provided to Rolling Stone, Wells Fargo offers zero explanation for the decision to terminate the relationship with these customers. The letter says that the bank “performs ongoing reviews of its account relationships in connection with the Bank’s responsibilities to manage risks in its banking operations,” and that the recipient’s accounts will be closed “as a result of this review.” Wells Fargo did not immediately respond to a request for comment. -Rolling Stone
30-year customer Alana Evans, president of the Adult Performance Artists’ Guild (APAG) says that she’s had no prior issues with the bank. In a Sept. 2 video posted to Twitter, she said: “I don’t bounce checks, I’ve never done anything bad with my bank account, I don’t have fraud alerts or do chargebacks,” adding “A bank that I’ve done business with for 30 years decided that I’m not worthy of a relationship with them.”
“How am I supposed to pay my bills? How am I supposed to get paid?” she continued.
A little long but it’s my 💔😢 I don’t normally post videos like this but I feel the need to express how deeply this has affected myself and others – banking discrimination destroys livelihoods of marginalized workers @WellsFargo pic.twitter.com/gzYCeETh1G
— Alana Evans (@alanaevansxxx) September 2, 2022
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThe owners of Las Vegas-based porn production company, YummyGirl Studios, were also terminated as clients by the bank. Spike Irons and Sofie Marie received a letter dated Aug. 25, which said they had until Oct. 13 to move their money – shortly after cashing a check from Hustler for Marie’s modeling. The couple primarily used the account to pay out independent contractors, including actors and production staffers.
Sofie Marie (YouTube screenshot) They have applied to two other banks and been rejected, and have no idea how they’ll pay their staff according to the report.
“We’re a tax-paying business that has been operating consistently since 2016,” said Irons. “Tell me how we are high-risk. Wouldn’t they have dumped us years ago?”
Another adult content creator, Leia Way, was also canceled by Wells Fargo – despite telling Rolling Stone that she’s been a member in good standing for six years, and had been using the account to process wire transfer payments from an affiliate marketing program linked to a cam site.
“In this line of work, the feeling of being discriminated never really goes away,” she said. “With that feeling, I am always expecting the other shoe to drop.”
She’s been forced to find another bank as well.
“To have a business terminate your relationship when you’ve done nothing wrong or illegal, it sucks,” she added.
Even a former adult performer, ‘Raylene,’ had her Wells Fargo account terminated despite being out of the industry for a decade. The only activity related to the adult industry are residual payments from cam site Streammate.
“It’s kind of messed up,” she said. “If I feel unsafe in a financial institution, what’s next? Did they check my background? Why would one or two deposits a year flag my account? I would feel better if someone would give me a straight answer.”
The fact that she has been out of the industry for so long, she says, makes her even more disquieted about Wells Fargo’s decision. “You feel powerless over the external forces, over corporate and religious America, trying to exclude certain groups from living their lives in a free way,” she says. -Rolling Stone
According to the report, this isn’t the first time banks have punished people in the adult industry for seemingly no reason. In 2014, JPMorgan Chase shuttered a slew of adult performers’ accounts without explanation – including Teagan Presley and Keiran Lee.
What gives?
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 22:00 - History Repeats: Abandoning Sound Money Leads To Tyranny And Ruin
History Repeats: Abandoning Sound Money Leads To Tyranny And Ruin
Submitted by Jp Cortez, Sound Money Defense League,
Money is one of the most misunderstood topics of our time, and we’re seeing the implications of this play out every day.
To understand money, one first must first understand that human beings have always been incentivized to participate in exchange. If humans could not, or did not, trade, the majority of people would die young: whether by starvation, disease, or exposure to the elements.
The survivors would be left with an extremely low standard of living; not a world any of us would want to live in. This means that exchange is a necessary condition, not only of our economy, but of human flourishing.
Origins of Money
Before there was money, there was barter (also known as direct exchange) – a system in which every good is traded directly against every other good.
A small island economy could function this way: a couple of coconuts traded for fishing line, or a bushel of bananas in exchange for bamboo with which to build a shelter.
As Tho Bishop from the Mises Institute illustrates, imagine that a farmer wants to buy a pair of boots, so he visits the town cobbler and tries to trade a dozen eggs in exchange. However, the cobbler in town doesn’t want eggs. The cobbler might want beef, but the farmer isn’t willing to slaughter his cow for boots.
A trade where both parties are happy is now difficult. It’s easy to see how unmanageable this system is as populations grow, and as needs and wants expand.
Let’s revisit our farmer: Instead of offering eggs, he realizes that what the cobbler really wants is butter. So he goes out and trades for butter, and then uses that butter to trade for boots. If enough people also want butter, our farmer may buy more—not to use it, but to exchange it for other goods and services. This is called indirect exchange.
Many goods throughout history, with varying degrees of effectiveness, have filled the role of “butter.” Salt, wampum, and tobacco have all been used as money, just to name a few. However, gold and silver emerged as universally accepted monies by the free market because of their durability, transportability, fungibility, and scarcity.
Emerged is the key. The process through which money is “created” is not one of central planning or of creation at all, but rather one in which money is “discovered” by markets.
Gold and silver have other qualities that make them a sound form of money.
These precious metals are relatively scarce, used across a variety of industries, and are aesthetically beautiful.
They are fungible – an ounce of silver is, for all intents and purposes, uniform.
They are divisible. If you split one ounce of gold into two, the two halves are of equal value that add up to the value of the whole.
Compare this to diamonds. They may have some qualities of a store of wealth over time, but each diamond is unique and cutting one in half will reduce its value by far more than half.
This process—the cumulative development of a medium of exchange on the free market—is how societies throughout history chose reliable forms of money and moved away from barter, explains Bishop.
However, not all forms of money have stood the test of time.
What Is Sound Money?
Sound money carries no counterparty risk (unlike a banknote, it is not simultaneously someone else’s obligation). And it retains relatively stable purchasing power over time.
Sound money has two pretty simple value propositions. The first is that sound money protects capital and creates stability. People can accumulate savings and transmit value over time, allowing them to better plan, save, and invest for the future.
The second is that sound money acts as a defense against excess debt accumulation and an ever-growing government.
The current system of fiat money issued by central banks enables unlimited deficit spending by government. Inflation allows the costs to be socialized across all holders of the currency by slowly and steadily stealing everyone’s purchasing power.
From decade-long wars, to wasteful domestic programs, the ability to create currency endlessly has empowered the government to spend in ways that it would not be able to if not for a printing press.
The Decline of Sound Money in the United States
The Framers of the United States Constitution understood the importance of sound money, and that’s why they codified it. Article 1, section 10 states: “No State shall emit bills of credit…[or] make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts.”
However, less than a hundred years into the American experiment, the Civil War began. Wars are expensive, and the federal government, which had a policy to only print notes that were backed by an equal amount of gold and silver, was running low on specie.
Lincoln and his money managers knew citizens would be wary of unbacked paper notes. After all, the Constitutional Convention that took place less than 75 years prior had overwhelmingly rejected paper money based, in part, on recent experiences with it.
George Washington wrote that paper money was “wicked.” James Madison wrote it was “unjust” and “unconstitutional.”
Even though it was unconstitutional, Lincoln’s government issued unbacked paper money, called Greenbacks.
But how could he get people to accept them in exchange for their goods and services? The answer is the use of government force through what are known as legal tender laws.
It’s worth noting that the government expected the plebeians to use and accept this fake money, but any customs duties or other taxes still had to be paid with real gold or silver coin.
Legal tender is a stamp of approval by the federal government that magically turns strips of unbacked paper into money people must accept, if begrudgingly at first. By the end of the war, nearly half a billion unbacked notes had been issued.
As always happens with paper money, Greenbacks lost the overwhelming majority of their purchasing power before the country went back on a gold standard.
Over the next 150 years, though, the steady destruction of sound money continued.
The 20th Century Brought the Outright Destruction of Sound Money
In 1913, Congress created the Federal Reserve System (which has since served to devalue the Federal Reserve Note more than 97%, despite its mandate to maintain price stability).
Then came an income tax, gold confiscation by executive order, the abrogation of gold clause contracts, and ultimately the complete severance of any tie between gold and the Federal Reserve Note in 1971.
What came next surprises no one: An explosion of government spending brings us to today.
Biden administration bureaucrats face no constraints on their borrowing and bailout schemes. America is now well down the road to financial insolvency, shouldering more than $30 trillion in debt.
History teaches us no government can ultimately escape the consequences of removing sound money from its monetary system. Absent the constraints on ever-expanding fiat money supply imposed by gold and silver, the current inflation problem can only worsen.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 21:40 - Zoo In China Says Endangered Species Are Starving Amidst Lockdowns, Pleads Local Authorities For Food
Zoo In China Says Endangered Species Are Starving Amidst Lockdowns, Pleads Local Authorities For Food
No supply chain is being spared from the effects of China’s continued Covid lockdowns – and that includes food for endangered species.
While the rest of the world worries about whether or not it’ll be able to get its Starbucks coffee the way they still like it in the morning or whether supplies of oatmilk are once again running thin, China has been experiencing shortages of its own.
Among the more obscure examples is the case unfolding at the Guizhou Wildlife Park, where FT says there has been an “urgent plea for live chickens and fish, as well as steamed buns and frozen crabs” for use in feeding “endangered Siberian, white Bengal and South China tigers, as well as pandas, crocodiles and zebras.”
The owner of the park sent a letter to local authorities stating: “Almost 70 per cent of the animals kept in the park are protected species, but at present, the park’s feed stockpiles are far from enough.”
The letter also asked for “stocks of sweet potato, peppers and frozen shrimp tails,” according to FT, who noted that there are still about 50 cities, with a combined total of about 290 million people, on lockdown.
The park said it needed to keep at least 10 days of live food for some of its animals. The park’s shortages of a microcosm of similar fears about food supply and security returning throughout the country.
Ting Lu, Nomura’s chief China economist, told FT: “Over the past week, the overall Covid situation deteriorated considerably in China. What is becoming increasingly concerning is that Covid hotspots are continuing to shift away from several remote regions and cities — with seemingly less economic significance to the country — to provinces that matter much more to China’s national economy.”
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 21:20 - Snyder: What In The World Is Wrong With This Country?
Snyder: What In The World Is Wrong With This Country?
Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,
Just when it seems like we can’t possibly go any lower, we always manage to top ourselves. In the old days, every once in a while I would come across a story that would make me shake my head in disbelief because it was just so absurd. Now it is happening on a daily basis. In this article I am going to share some examples with you. I realize that some of these things are difficult to believe, but all of them are true. Our country really is coming apart at the seams right in front of our eyes, and the pace of our national decline only seems to be accelerating. If we are not able to turn our cultural decay around, eventually we will not have a country at all.
Let me start with a new law which will go into effect in Illinois on January 1st.
From that point forward, those guilty of second-degree murder, kidnapping, burglary and arson will always be released without having to post any bail at all…
When a new Illinois law takes effect next year, it will do away with the cash bail system in the state, meaning suspects charged with felonies, including second-degree murder, aggravated battery, and arson, will be released without bail.
The Counter Signal reports the Safety, Accountability, Fairness and Equity-Today Act, also called the SAFE-T Act, would end cash bail and includes 12 non-detainable offenses, second-degree murder, aggravated battery, and arson without bail, as well as drug-induced homicide, kidnapping, burglary, robbery, intimidation, aggravated DUI, aggravated fleeing and eluding, drug offenses and threatening a public official.
When the law takes effect on Jan. 1, 2023, criminals charged with the crimes mentioned above will be released without bail.
How many hardened criminals do you think will actually show up for their trials?
I am sure that there will be a few.
Of course many of our “woke judges” are doing their very best to make sure that many violent criminals never pay the price for their crimes even if they do stand trial.
In California, a judge recently granted a mistrial to one defendant just because he didn’t get a good night of sleep the night before…
A California judge, who hails from a powerful Democrat family who endorsed LA DA George Gascon, granted a mistrial for a man facing life in prison because he was sleepy.
The alleged criminal apparently did not get a good night’s rest before the trial after spending the night in a cell without a bed or blanket.
Seriously?
So now this violent criminal is back on the streets even though he pointed a gun in the face of a female fast food worker and threatened to blow her brains out…
Vamazae Elgin Banks, 24, appeared in court after threatening a McDonald’s worker with a gun before stealing less than $100.
Court records accused Banks of telling the cashier at the fast food joint that he would kill her if she didn’t produce the cash quickly enough, allegedly telling her ‘hurry up or I’ll blow your brains out!’
Our system of justice is systematically being destroyed.
But many Americans simply don’t care because they are drugged out of their minds.
The United States has the biggest problem with legal drugs on the entire planet, and it also has the biggest problem with illegal drugs on the entire planet.
When I saw the following story, I thought that it perfectly summed up where we are as a nation today…
A speeding woman is accused of driving under the influence of cocaine and alcohol when she crashed into another car, killing its driver who was under the influence of methamphetamine, police said.
Summer Butler, 37, faces charges of DUI resulting in death, reckless driving and being in possession of a controlled substance in connection with the fatal crash in January, court documents obtained by the 8 News Now I-Team said.
At this point, it seems like almost everyone is an addict, and that includes many of our government officials. Here is just one example…
A Louisiana state official was arrested for allegedly buying drugs from a drug dealer outside of a fast food chain on Tuesday.
Bridgette Hull, 37, serves as the executive secretary for the Louisiana State Board of Private Security Examiners. She was purchasing drugs from dealer Steven McCarthy, who was under surveillance, when a Louisiana Attorney General Office employee recognized him at a Livingston Parish restaurant.
Hull was arrested onsite, but McCarthy fled the scene after back up was called – resulting in a pursuit. He later crashed into another car and was arrested.
If we would secure our borders, we could at least reduce the flow of illegal drugs into this country.
But the Biden administration refuses to do that.
And so the worst drug crisis in all of U.S. history will continue to escalate, and substances that are laced with fentanyl will continue to kill countless numbers of our young people…
San Diego and Imperial County comprise the epicenter of fentanyl drug trafficking in the United States, according to the Department of Justice (DOJ), which reported that seizures of fentanyl in San Diego were up 323% in FY2019-FY2021 and that fentanyl overdose deaths increased 2,375% in San Diego County between 2016 and 2021.
“A decade ago, we didn’t even know about fentanyl, and now it’s a national crisis,” said U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of California Randy Grossman. “The amount of fentanyl we are seizing at the border is staggering. The number of fentanyl seizures and fentanyl-related deaths in our district are unprecedented.”
If you are waiting for our national leaders to fix our growing problems, you are going to be waiting for a really, really long time.
Every major decision they make seems to make things even worse, and the Biden administration keeps appointing extremely alarming individuals to top positions of power.
In fact, Biden just appointed a “doctor” that is absolutely obsessed with pentagrams to be the National Monkeypox Response Deputy Coordinator.
Meet Demetre Daskalakis.
Demetre was just appointed by Joe Biden to be the official White House National Monkeypox Response Deputy Coordinator. Demetre proudly wears the official symbol of the Church of Satan: The Pentagram.
Joe Biden appointed a Satanist to the White House. pic.twitter.com/TiMPY29AtC— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 8, 2022
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Not cherry picking here. The Pentagram is proudly displayed in his *promotional* photos for a CDC appointment. It’s ubiquitous on his social media. Demetre has Pentagram tattoos.
So it’s a fair question: Did Joe Biden appoint a Satanist? pic.twitter.com/471Fp3uKss
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 8, 2022
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So far, only a very small handful of conservatives are objecting to his appointment to such an important position.
What in the world is wrong with this country?
Have we gone completely and totally nuts?
Perhaps we have. At this point, close to one-fourth of all Democratic voters actually believe that men can get pregnant…
A poll conducted by WPA Intelligence has found that almost one quarter of Democratic voters believe that “some men can become pregnant.”
Twenty-two percent of Democrats overall agreed with the statement.
The poll also found that more women agreed with the statement, and an incredible 36 percent of white, college-educated female Democrats agreed.
We aren’t just in a state of decline.
The truth is that we are in a very advanced state of decline and the clock is ticking.
If you love this nation, what has happened to us should deeply sadden you.
We were once the greatest country on the entire planet, but now we are rapidly being destroyed from within.
Please wake up America, because time to do anything about all of this is quickly running out.
* * *
It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 21:00 - Sub-Million-Dollar Manhattan Condo Sales Slump Below Pre-COVID Trend As Affordability Crisis Rages
Sub-Million-Dollar Manhattan Condo Sales Slump Below Pre-COVID Trend As Affordability Crisis Rages
New Yorkers searching for a sign of relief from Manhattan’s red hot real estate market may finally be getting some good news.
The borough’s lower-end real estate market is beginning to cool after a year of bidding wars. Rising mortgage rates have made borrowing costs more expensive, curbing demand for prospective homebuyers with budgets under $1 million, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from brokerage Serhant.
Serhant found the number of listings under $500,000 that entered contracts in the three months beginning in June was 29% below the decade average leading up to the virus pandemic. The number of properties that went under contract between $500,000 to $1 million was 15% below the pre-Covid average.
Garrett Derderian, Serhant’s director of market intelligence, said buyers under a million dollars are more susceptible to rising mortgage rates.
“Even a one or two percentage point increase does make a difference to the borrowing power of those buyers,” Derderian said.
He described a housing affordability crisis: the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped from 3.2% starting the year to 6% in June. As of this week, Bankrate data shows the 30-year fixed mortgage is back above 6%.
We warned that skyrocketing mortgage rates would spark a housing affordability crisis as early as March. Fast forward to today, the affordability index crashed to three-decade lows.
The affordability crisis has pressured the lower-tier homebuyers first, as soaring borrowing costs may have ended the 2021 housing frenzy.
Transactions entering contract have been slowing compared to last year as buyers are deterred by higher rates, with Manhattan home deals dropping 39% in June, July and August from a year ago. Contracts signed were also 10% below the average levels for the same months during the decade before the pandemic hit. –Bloomberg
In June, July, and August, the median price of a Manhattan property was approximately $1,159,000 and only increased by 1% over the same period last year. At some point, the growth in home prices will stall and then reverse. Inventory is rising much quicker than last year.
Suppose mortgage rates remain elevated while inventory increases, along with high inflation eating away wages. In that case, there’s the possibility downward pressure could finally reverse prices.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 20:40 - The FBI Is Hiding Epstein Records
The FBI Is Hiding Epstein Records
Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,
Your humble author, as promised, is involved in litigation to extract records from the federal government. It’s easy to talk about current events. The more difficult part is suing federal agencies for documentation of their wrongdoing.
This involves initiating FOIA requests, which are rarely answered quickly or completely. Out of our 75+ FOIA requests from this past year, only one was answered quickly and fully. A small miracle.
That was where we obtained CDC e-mails disclosing how they changed the definition of “vaccine” because of the efficacy problems with the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines. It’s a must-read if you haven’t seen it already (even if it got us wrongly flagged on the Carnegie Mellon University COVID-19 “misinformation” watchlist):
Related: CDC Emails: Our Definition Of Vaccine is “Problematic”
Then there are the records we must fight for.
One development we can divulge is our effort to obtain the FBI’s records on Jeffrey Epstein. We made a simple request: hand over all FBI interviews with Epstein. We know those records are out there, as we were the first to report that Epstein had been a source for the FBI. (It was later confirmed that Epstein cooperated on a Bear Stearns investigation.)
Wait. Was pedophile Jeffrey Epstein an informant for Mueller’s FBI?
From the 5/24/18 FBI Vault release: “Epstein has also provided information to the FBI as agreed upon.”
Is that why he escaped serious charges for molesting over twenty girls? pic.twitter.com/K4suAumD85
— Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) May 24, 2018
But we’re not convinced that was the only time Epstein spoke with the FBI. There were other hints and rumors that he worked with the US government to recover stolen funds. Thus the FOIA request.
How did the FBI respond? Not by denying the existence of any records.
Instead, the FBI is hiding behind FOIA’s law enforcement exemption, stating that the production of the Epstein records would interfere with ongoing law enforcement investigations:
“The records responsive to your request are law enforcement records; there is a pending or prospective law enforcement proceeding relevant to these responsive records, and release of the information could reasonably be expected to interfere with enforcement proceedings.”
We’re exceedingly doubtful that the release of the Epstein records would “interfere with enforcement proceedings.” Ghislaine Maxwell has been convicted and Epstein is dead. The only potential tie might be from a grand jury investigation into “other possible co-conspirators of Jeffrey Epstein.” But that was from the summer of 2020 and we rightly assume no charges were brought against whoever was being investigated.
It’s more likely that the Epstein records might embarrass the FBI. The DOJ and FBI have been known to abuse the FOIA law enforcement exemption to hide investigative materials from public release. We’ve seen them do it. And they’re doing it again.
But here’s the good news: the FBI’s response is a tacit admission that these records exist. We’ll fight for them. And we’ll get them.
Stay tuned, and thanks for your support.
Techno
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 20:20 - Most Central Banks Have Raised Interest Rates In 2022
Most Central Banks Have Raised Interest Rates In 2022
In many countries, consumer prices are rising significantly. Central banks have the ability to counteract this via monetary policy means – by raising interest rates, thereby restricting access to credit and slowing down value creation.
As of early September 2022, the majority of central banks worldwide had carried out rate hikes – some small and other rather large. As seen in data available on Trading Economics, a few countries also kept rates the same or even cut then, but these were often nations experiencing severe economic turmoil or those that are cut off from world markets to some extent.
In the face of inflation, the European Central Bank raised rates for the first time in eleven years in July, but central bank interest rates still remain low in Europe.
The United States’ Fed, which like the ECB stuck to zero interest for a long time, hiked rates more aggressively as the U.S. was affected by inflation more severely than many other countries. The upper end of the interest rate range stood at 2.5 percent in the U.S. most recently.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Turkey and China are among the countries that cut in interest rates in 2022 and have a lower rate now than they had on Jan 1, 2022.
China’s economy is not struggling with high inflation, but it is forecast to face a number of downside risks, including power shortages, virus outbreaks and weak consumption. According to Bloomberg, the People’s Bank of China will therefore presumably relax its monetary policy and support economic growth by enabling more liquidity.
The monetary policy of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is criticized by Bloomberg experts and is described as “unorthodox”. In Turkey, consumer prices have risen by up to 19 percent. Turkey’s central bank recently lowered its key interest rate nevertheless. Erdogan is evidently of the opinion that high interest rates would conversely fuel inflation, while low ones would stimulate loans and investments.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 20:00 - Australia's Left-Wing Greens Party Calls For Republic Hours After Queen's Passing
Australia’s Left-Wing Greens Party Calls For Republic Hours After Queen’s Passing
Authored by Daniel Teng via The Epoch Times,
Members of the left-wing Australian Greens party have called for the country to “move forward” and embrace becoming a Republic—to sever Australia’s links with the Crown—just hours after news of the death of Queen Elizabeth II.
Greens leader Adam Bandt wrote on Twitter, “Rest In Peace Queen Elizabeth II. Our thoughts are with her family and all who loved her.”
“Now Australia must move forward. We need Treaty with First Nations people, and we need to become a Republic.”
It is unclear what a “Treaty with First Nations” would entail.
Fellow Greens MP David Shoebridge wrote a lengthier statement on Facebook saying the death of the monarch was a tragedy that “echoes well beyond the grief of one family.”
But he also said her passing marked the “last echoes of an exploitative imperialism, which has caused and still causes grief for millions around the world.”
“The transition of power we are watching unfold, through someone’s genetic inheritance, is beyond strange and seriously out of place in a democracy in 2022,” he said.
“This is a moment we need to move towards Treaty and Republic. Two calls for Sovereignty that are deeply connected.”
Indigenous leader Warren Mundine has criticised left-leaning political figures and commentators for propagating the colonialism narrative.
“We’ve been able to produce [Indigenous] surgeons, doctors, lawyers, accountants, academics, and engineers. And getting Aboriginals through school and all that, and also very focused on improving the life expectancy and economic prosperity for Aboriginal people,” he previously told The Epoch Times.
“When you have negative things all the time, you get this victimhood. And that’s what a lot of this stuff does, and we need to move away from that.”
Monarchists Hail the Late Queen’s Influence
Meanwhile, the Australians for Constitutional Monarchy said it was a moment of “great sadness” for the people of the Commonwealth.
“She set the theme of her long reign in her address to the Commonwealth broadcast from South Africa on her 21st year when she declared that she would dedicate her whole life, whether it be long or short, to the service of the great imperial family to which we all belong,” the ACM wrote on Facebook.
Fellow supporters of maintaining the Crown as Australia’s head of state, the Australian Monarchist League, said the Queen’s passing marked the close of the second Elizabethan era and “heralds a new chapter in world history.”
“Australians can take comfort in the knowledge that their new King will unequivocally continue the longstanding traditions, dutiful service, and vital constitutional role which epitomised our late Queen.”
The campaign for a Republic has been an ongoing attempt to change Australia’s political system from a constitutional monarchy, where the head of state is a member of the British Royal Family, to a Republic where the head of state is a president.
The last referendum on the issue in 1999 failed to win enough support, with 45.13 percent of voters in favour and 54.87 percent against. One criticism was the Republic model presented saw the president selected by sitting members of Parliament and not the general public.
Current Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has promised to revisit the issue.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 19:40 - Top Rice-Exporter India Curbs Shipments, Adds To Fresh Food Inflation Fears
Top Rice-Exporter India Curbs Shipments, Adds To Fresh Food Inflation Fears
We told readers in April that the next challenge for the global food supply could be a plunge in rice production (read: here). Then in early August, severe heatwaves in India, the world’s biggest rice shipper, wreaked havoc across farmland in the country, depressing crop output. Today, India restricted some rice exports and placed levies on others, exacerbating a world already squeezed by a food crisis.
Bloomberg reported India imposed a 20% duty on white and brown rice exports and banned shipments of broke rice — parboiled and basmati rice were excluded from the export duty and/or trade restrictions. The new curbs apply to about 60% of India’s rice exports and go into effect Friday.
India’s clamp down on grain exports is to calm domestic prices after low rainfall during the monsoon season curtailed planting. The country accounts for 40% of global rice shipments and could spark yet another wave of food inflation for the poorest nations importing the grain.
“Such severe disruptions in global supplies, combined with a record level of consumption worldwide, should supercharge” prices and further fuel food inflation, said Sabrin Chowdhury, head of commodities at Fitch Solutions.
According to Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, “imposing a 20% levy is a big deal … this move will cause global rice prices to rally.”
Ophaswongse said traders would be forced to purchase from rivals Thailand and Vietnam, struggling to increase shipments and will send prices even higher. India’s export restrictions will be a massive blow to importing nations in Asia and Africa that consume the grain.
Persistent inflation (especially food and energy) could spark further civil unrest worldwide over the next coming months. The forecast for impending global turmoil to deepen was published in a new note by Verisk Maplecroft, a UK-based risk consulting and intelligence firm (read: here).
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 19:20 - How Will China's New $44 Billion Stimulus Impact Steel Prices?
How Will China’s New $44 Billion Stimulus Impact Steel Prices?
By Ag Metal Miner, published in OilPrice.com
A few days ago, China’s State Council announced more stimulus policies. The new measures included an additional 300 billion yuan ($44 billion) in quotas for infrastructure spending and investments by banks. This was in addition to the 300 billion yuan announced at June-end. However, the only real question regarding the stimuli is looking at everything happening with steel and iron ore prices: will it help? Most initial reports suggest that the move may give impetus to steel and iron ore off-take, both of which are in a months-long slump. However, other reports believe these new stimulus actions might not achieve their goals. More specifically, they won’t generate a renewed interest in construction activity in China. As a result, there won’t be much (if any) of a positive impact on the steel sector.
In 2021, China produced 1.033 billion tons of crude steel. It was the first decline since 2016. Thus far, in 2022, national steel production is down 6.4% year-on-year. The China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicted this at the beginning of the year, stating that China’s 2022 output would slow to 1.017 billion tons. This represents a 1.5% decrease from the year before.
Steel and Iron Ore Prices Bouncing Back
Following the recent stimuli announcement, a Bloomberg report stated that China’s raw materials prices, including iron ore prices, had officially steadied. This came after factory activity shrank less than expected in August. Meanwhile, the purchasing managers’ index for steel stayed in contraction, and the pace of its decline narrowed sharply.
Steel industry experts are hopeful that steel output will increase in September as the country starts to respond to the government stimulus efforts, which will hopefully aid iron ore prices. Some Chinese steel mills have already signaled that production is rising and profit margins are back in positive territory.
Indeed, thanks to the June and September stimuli packages, iron ore prices and some steel products are rebounding. For instance, Shanghai steel rebar initiated a recovery recovering its lowest close this year, moving from 3,704 yuan ($539) a ton on July 15 to 4,078 yuan on Aug. 26. Profit margins at steel mills, which were negative in July, returned to positive territory as well. S&P Global Commodity Insights reported a profit of about $50 a ton on rebar in August.
Rebar Also Struggling
Rebar inventories have also dropped. This is also a sign of activity picking up. After all, inventories had gone down in the last nine weeks. They are now about two million tons below the 7.13 million recorded during the same week in 2021.
Earlier this week, iron ore futures, too, rebounded. The most-traded January iron ore on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange ended daytime trade 4% higher at 692 yuan ($99.85) a ton for iron ore prices. On the Singapore Exchange, the iron ore October contract went up 4.5% to $98.75 a ton. These are promising numbers, but it will take time to see the true and full effect of the ongoing stimulus.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 19:00 - Are Rolex Prices About To Bottom?
Are Rolex Prices About To Bottom?
Since the secondhand luxury watch market peaked in April, we pointed out the slump in prices this summer via two notes titled Investors’ Clock Out’ Of Rolex Bull Market As Demand Cools and “Boom Time Over”: Rolex Prices Crash In China.
After a turbulent spring and summer, there’s emerging evidence of a “bottoming out of prices in the world’s most popular luxury watch references,” according to to watch tracking website Sundial.
This week the Subdial50 Index, which tracks references for watches such as the Rolex Submariner, Daytona, and Datejust, as well as Patek Philippe Nautilus and an Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, increased 1.2% over the last 30 days. The index is still up 21% over the 12 months but down 22% in the previous six: a wild rollercoaster ride for passionate watch enthusiasts and/or those trying to flip timepieces.
“The first quarter of 2022 saw preowned luxury watch prices boom, bringing with it scores of new buyers that were introduced to the market for the first time. Many of these left as quickly as they entered: flippers and day traders who’d been told you couldn’t lose money in watches came with little underlying passion and found themselves burnt when prices began to fall,” Subdial wrote in a market update post this week.
For the secondhand Rolex market specifically, WatchCharts’ index of 30 popular models with high trade activity also shows the pandemic boom and peak euphoria in April — only to give way to a tumultuous summer — comes at a time when stocks, cryptos, and bonds have had a rough year.
WatchCharts Rolex index dropped 5.9% in June, followed by a 3.5% fall in July and -5.1% in August.
A bottom in the secondhand luxury watch market could come when financial conditions ease for real. The latest round of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve members (voting/non-voting) and especially after Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, has ignited a hawkish shift that suggests tightening financial conditions isn’t over.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 18:40 - Millions Of Electric Car Batteries Retiring By 2030, Are We Ready To Deal With What Could Be Ticking Time Bombs?
Millions Of Electric Car Batteries Retiring By 2030, Are We Ready To Deal With What Could Be Ticking Time Bombs?
Authored by Autumn Spreademann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The evolving landscape of lithium batteries is creating both contradictions and infrastructure hurdles that, according to some, need to be addressed sooner rather than later. A critical component of this is waste management.
Charging sign for electric vehicles (EVs). (paulbr75/pixabay) More than 6 million electric vehicle (EV) battery packs will end up as scrap between now and 2030, and the recycling and reuse industries are racing to keep up. Some researchers project that recycling alone will be an over $12 billion industry by 2025.
U.S. President Joe Biden wants to make America a key player in the EV battery industry with a $3.1 billion spending package for automobile production to transition away from fossil fuels.
Much of this dream is pinned on a dusty stretch of soil in the Nevada high desert called Thacker Pass. It serves as the lynchpin in Biden’s push for increased domestic lithium production and more EV batteries. That’s because Thacker Pass is the largest hard rock lithium reserve in the United States.
Currently, China dominates the world’s EV battery production, with more than 80 percent of all units developed there.
Yet while Biden’s administration has its sights on the top spot for EV battery production, insiders are pointing out industry trapdoors.
Thacker Pass, Nev., has the largest hard rock lithium reserve in the United States. (Lithium Americas) Due to the potentially dangerous chemistry of lithium-ion EV units, concrete solutions are needed before an avalanche of dead battery packs ends up sitting around and waiting for recycling like ticking time bombs.
Those working on the sales end of the EV revolution tend to squirm or offer vague generalities when queried about what will happen to all of the old batteries.
The notion is quickly lumped into the very broad category of recycling or second life applications without offering any planning details.
Second life applications are an option for EV batteries no longer fit to power cars, but are suitable for alternative uses like energy storage.
And while that’s a start, the ultimate question lingers: How can America effectively deal with millions of completely spent, defective, or recalled EV units?
For people who specialize in hazardous waste, handling lithium batteries is a serious subject.
“For me, the biggest challenge I see, especially with second life, is on the safety side,” Scott Thibodeau at Veolia North America told The Epoch Times.
Thibodeau is the general manager of environmental services and solutions at Veolia North America, the second largest hazmat removal service in the United States.
He explained the chemistry of lithium-ion batteries is problematic since they can’t be dumped or recycled as easily as some other materials. This requires particular adaptations within the evolving EV industry to responsibly strip, package, and dispose of old units.
A ‘Thermal Runaway’
“The packing and logistics isn’t easy or cheap,” Thibodeau said.
Moreover, the batteries pose a significant fire hazard.
Tucked within the sprawling Chicago suburbs is the town of Morris, Illinois. Around midday on Jun. 29, 2021, the fire department received a call that a warehouse fire had broken out in a structure that many residents assumed was just an abandoned building. The call came from someone who claimed to be an employee for a company that was storing 200,000 pounds of batteries in the building, most of which were lithium.
Fire Chief Tracey Steffes told reporters that it was the first time his department had ever fought a lithium fire.
Mitigating traditional fires is done by using water or chemicals to cut off the supply of oxygen. However, lithium is unique in that it doesn’t require oxygen to burn. Once ignited, it creates what Thibodeau called a “thermal runaway,” which is incredibly challenging to control.
“Once the battery goes into that state, stopping it is next to impossible,” Steffes said to reporters after the June 2021 fire.
Confused Morris residents were quickly evacuated from neighborhoods close to the blaze and spent hours in hotel rooms, watching smoke fill the sky, and fearing for the safety of their homes.
At that moment, residential Americans got an up close and personal look at lithium’s dark side.
It wasn’t the first incident where lithium battery storage turned catastrophic, and it likely won’t be the last.
Thibodeau says that while there’s no easy way to put out a lithium battery fire, having people properly trained on how to reduce the fire risks, combined with proper handling and storage, is a huge step in the right direction.
Recycling EV batteries poses another significant hurdle. That’s due to a trifecta of complications including expense, existing capacity to handle demand, and the simple fact these batteries aren’t easy to recycle.
“Currently, less than five percent of lithium batteries that reach the end of their lifespan are recycled,” a spokesperson for the carbon accounting group Greenly told The Epoch Times.
The representative for Greenly went on to explain that though the potential for ramped up recycling exists, it’s not possible with lithium-ion batteries until they reach the end of their lifespan.
“The industry hasn’t obtained the knowledge or experience necessary to learn how to recycle these batteries or maximize their usage beforehand,” they added.
This is where second life applications come in, which can buy a non-defective EV battery an extra 10 years of life. It also essentially buys the burgeoning recycling companies time to catch up.
Read more here…
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 18:20 - How Will The European Energy Crisis Affect US Freight Markets
How Will The European Energy Crisis Affect US Freight Markets
By John Paul Hampstead of FreightWaves
Volatility in European power markets stemming from EU and U.K. sanctions against Russian energy — imposed in retaliation for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February — may soon cool off, but only after carving a slice out of the continent’s economy.
On Monday, U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss announced plans to cap household energy bills at the equivalent of $2,300 annually. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz unveiled a 65 billion euro relief package to ease the pain of energy prices that have quadrupled in his country.
These crisis measures are meant to reduce the economic damage caused by a continentwide natural gas supply crunch following the cancellation of Nord Stream 2 and Russia’s shutdown of Nord Stream 1. Historically high energy prices could sap consumers’ ability to spend money on other goods and services, dragging down economic growth.
But last week, Goldman Sachs analyst Alberto Gandolfi wrote that his team did not think that the scope of the price caps being contemplated would be nearly enough to avert a 1970s-style energy crisis.
“We see scope for the introduction of price caps in power generation, which we estimate could save Europe c.€650 bn pa,” Gandolfi wrote in a client note on Saturday. “Yet, price caps would not fully solve the affordability issue: the increase in energy bills would still be of +€1.3 tn, or c.10% of GDP, we estimate.”
Europe’s economy was relatively healthy until the energy crisis, growing GDP by 3.9% year over year (y/y) or 0.6% quarter on quarter in the second quarter of 2022. But now the eurozone manufacturing PMI has slipped to 49.6, and the S&P Global Germany Composite PMI for August was revised lower to 46.9.
Slowing economic growth in the EU has been exacerbated by high inflation, which hit 9.7% y/y in August. That has put a jumbo interest rate hike of 75 bps on the table as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde meets with her colleagues in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this week.
Ocean container rates from Asia to Europe have already fallen dramatically this year — and have dropped especially sharply since the beginning of August.
The Freightos Baltic Daily spot rate from China to North Europe, displayed in white in the chart above, has fallen 24% since July 3, from $10,397.55 per forty-foot equivalent unit to $7,869.10. Drewry’s spot rate from Shanghai to Rotterdam, Netherlands, displayed in green, dropped 18% over the same period, from $9,280 per FEU to $7,583.
Those recent ocean container rate cuts came after the market had already been softening for months; container rates on the Asia-Europe trade peaked last October. The sudden, violent step-down in spot rates may indicate that the incremental goods spending is way off in Europe, and ocean carriers are starting to optimize for asset utilization rather than EBIT per shipment.
If the steamship lines follow their well-established playbook, their response to soft demand could be to trim capacity, switching out vessels on the main services with smaller ships and deploying those assets elsewhere. The problem is that they might not have anywhere to go: Trans-Pacific ocean container spot rates are also way down on softening demand.
Upstream ocean container bookings data from FreightWaves Container Atlas reveals that European exports are set to slow markedly as well. Ocean container bookings outbound from Rotterdam to all global ports have experienced downward pressure since July:
The Ocean Booking Volume Index from Rotterdam to all global ports is down by 25.4% since July 5, a sharp downward trend, albeit the index is still at an elevated level compared to pre-pandemic freight flows. Lead times out of Rotterdam run a little over 10 days, so the trend lines above reflect booking activity approximately 1.5 weeks ahead of the freight physically moving on a vessel.
The widely cited European Road Freight Rates Benchmark is at all-time highs but appears to be inclusive of fuel costs (diesel in the EU is up 69% since January). The Russian invasion of Ukraine has restricted the supply of truck drivers in Germany, where migrants make up 24% of the driver workforce, as Ukrainian men returned home to fight. European road freight analysts are betting that weakening economic growth will keep rates from rising higher.
“The effect of rising costs in 2022 is now very evident with road freight rates across the European continent reaching new all-time highs,” wrote Transportation Insight economic analyst Nathaniel Donaldson. “Initial fuel price rises following the invasion of Ukraine have held and produced a much more costly environment for European road carriers whilst industrial action and a worsening driver shortage keep capacity tight. A range of indicators are pointing towards a drastic slowdown in consumption and production, which will ease further increases while high costs keep rates elevated.”
The EU energy crisis has already taken a bite out of Europe’s consumption and production, weakening demand for transportation capacity in, through and out of the region. Recently announced fiscal relief measures will likely not be large enough to avert an acute economic slowdown, with knock-on effects for global transportation markets like ocean container freight.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 17:40 - "End Of Days" Near As Illinois Set To Eliminate Cash Bail For Violent Offenders
“End Of Days” Near As Illinois Set To Eliminate Cash Bail For Violent Offenders
Progressive prosecutors and politicians have been enforcing radical criminal-justice policies across the country, often with little concern for real-world effects on the community. The latest is a “no cash bail” policy that will take effect in the new year for those charged with second-degree murder, aggravated battery, and arson in the State of Illinois.
The Counter Signal reported SAFE-T Act ends cash bail and includes 12 non-detainable offenses, second-degree murder, aggravated battery, and arson without bail, as well as drug-induced homicide, kidnapping, burglary, robbery, intimidation, aggravated DUI, aggravated fleeing and eluding, drug offenses and threatening a public official.
After Jan. 1, individuals charged with the above crimes will be free to roam the streets without bail.
Will County State’s Attorney James Glasgow warned the “end of days” is coming in the new year when the bill takes effect. Will County is located in the northeastern part of the state and is the second largest county in the six-country Chicago metro area.
Glasgow continued: SAFE-T Act “will destroy the city and the state of Illinois … and I don’t even understand (how) the people who support it can’t realize that.”
The new law also states who can be arrested: For example, someone trespassing on private property can be fined by police but not removed. Glasgow said police and judges would have their “hands tied” behind their backs. This will undoubtedly transform the county into a criminal paradise.
He said the violent crime and chaos seen in the metro area would swallow the county alive (and even the state):
“What you see in Chicago, we’ll have here.”
Even though the SAFE-T Act aims to overhaul the state’s criminal justice system and is designed to end ‘mass incarceration’ … critics of the new legislation are overwhelmingly alarmed that a plague of violent crime will spread across the state.
Last month, the Manhattan Institute reported that criminal justice reform in New York failed. The report clarifies that bail reform increased crime, and those subjected to violence were minorities.
A no-cash bail for the 12 offenses is another reason residents should leave the state. What could happen after the law goes into effect reminds us of scenes from the dystopian action horror film “The Purge.”
Get out of Illinois.
It is way too dangerous to live or work there.The state legislature and Governor are insane to have passed this.
🔈
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) September 8, 2022
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Progressive criminal-justice policies have failed law-abiding citizens. No wonder people are arming up as violent crime spikes in America’s urban centers.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/09/2022 – 17:20
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