Today’s News 11th February 2021

  • New NORAD Warfare Strategies And Canada's Role In The Great Game Revisited
    New NORAD Warfare Strategies And Canada’s Role In The Great Game Revisited

    Authored by Matthew Ehret via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    As relations between the USA and Russia continue to fall ever deeper into the abyss, and as China’s Belt and Road Initiative continues to evolve deep into the Eurasian Arctic via the Polar Silk Road, a new era of potential for cooperation as well as nuclear war awaits humanity. The decisions made over the coming months will determine which of those two opposing destinies are selected.

    For the time being, things are looking bad.

    On February 5, 2021 the Canadian press was lit abuzz with the headline NORAD Modernization to Dominate Agenda of Canada-U.S. Defence Relations citing various military think tanks and ivory tower game theorists who should be kept as far from any actual policy making circles if the world is going to survive beyond the coming decade.

    Citing the recent Biden-Trudeau meeting which featured a long discussion about Russian-Chinese aggression and Arctic defense, Andrea Charron (head of Manitoba’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies) states:

    “Where as before the primary threat during the Cold War was one peer competitor, who wasn’t using greyzone tactics, or at least not to the same extent as now, we now have two peer competitors to the U.S. – China and Russia – and they are using greyzone tactics, and they’re developing more sophisticated weapons like hypersonic glide vehicle weapons,”

    The idea being conveyed here is that Russian hypersonic air launched Kinzhal ballistic missiles will soon be stationed in Russia’s north which should cause NORAD to be completely revamped.

    Of course, these academics are quick to ignore all evidence of NATO encirclement of Russia and China under the insane “full spectrum dominance” game plan which certain geopoliticians believe will make nuclear war somehow winnable with 21st century technology.

    In the face of this supposed Russian and Chinese aggression, NATO-philes are screeching for Canada’s speedy entry into the NORAD Ballistic Missile shield which it abandoned over 15 years ago.

    Citing the 2020 Wilson Center report co-written by former NORAD chief Terrance O’Shaughnessy, and published by the Canada Institute, artificial intelligence programs (“SHIELD” and “Pathfinder”) are introduced as the key to the total overhaul of Canada-USA arctic strategy. O’Shaughnessy wrote of SHIELD that “It pools this data and fuses it into a common operational picture. Then, using the latest advances in machine learning and data analysis, it scans the data for patterns that are not visible to human eyes, helping decision-makers understand adversary potential courses of action before they are executed.”

    Anyone who has read Cynthia Chung’s Dr. Strangelove’s Spoonbenders will quickly realize why using AI to pick up algorithms that would normally be missed by human analysts, and generate hair-trigger decisions to counter threats from Eurasia creates a mountain of trouble for humanity, as glitches and mis-readings of Russian/Chinese intentions can easily escalate unstoppably into a nuclear retaliation by deductive/inductive machine thinking.

    Now at this point, many onlookers might make the mistake of brushing off these obvious plans for a revamped NORAD-NATO Arctic doctrine since Canada’s military is negligible, and it is merely a “middle power” that couldn’t possible do great damage anywhere.

    It is to the person asking this question that this report was written.

    The British Great Game Past and Present

    The first factor which such a person must recognize is the nature of the British Empire as an efficient power structure dominating the world even today.

    Anyone confused about this still-existing power structure need only read Eric Zuess’ new report ‘Further Proof that the U.S. and UK are One Empire’ where the author astutely writes:

    “Although the “Special Relationship” between the United States and the United Kingdom was first announced by Winston Churchill at Fulton Missouri on 5 March 1946, in the company of an approving U.S. President Harry S. Truman, it was actually started by Cecil Rhodes in 1877 when he drew up his plan for England secretly to retake America and use it so as to preserve and expand Britain’s empire throughout the world, via the Rhodes Trust. Rhodes was the first person to think up a “U.S. empire,” but it was actually only as a tool for the preservation and extension of England’s existing empire. And Winston Churchill, as a young man at the start of the 20th Century, was an acolyte and friend of Rhodes, and was viewed by Rhodes as being one of his most promising young followers.”

    The Post-WWII Order and the Rhodes Trust Origins of NATO

    In the Post-WWII order, the important tendency for U.S.-Russian partnership which shaped the 1780 League of Armed Neutrality, Russia’s support for the union in 1863 and the U.S.-Russia friendship that made WWII a success was overthrown.

    This historic friendship was directly targeted by forces loyal to the British Empire’s grand strategy for global Anglo-Saxon Dominance exemplified by Sir Winston Churchill’s unveiling of the Cold War during his March 5, 1946 “Iron Curtain” speech in Fulton Missouri and the follow-up creation of NATO in 1949 as a military bloc which would operate independently of the UN Security Council.

    An under-appreciated role in the formation of NATO and international dis-order more generally during these Cold War years is the British Deep State of Canada and due to the neglect of this fact, a few words should be said about this problem here and now.

    While official narratives have tried to spin NATO’s origins as the effect of an agreement amongst all western powers, the fact is that British intelligence operations are the true source, with British-trained Rhodes Scholar Escott Reid laying out the thesis for a supranational military body outside of the influence of the UN Security Council as early as August 1947. It was another two years before the design would materialize as an anti-Soviet military coalition based on the binding agreement that if one member enters a conflict, then all members must so enter.

    At a Round Table-directed Conference on August 13, 1947, Reid, an ardent globalist and co-founder of the Canadian branch of the London Fabian Society “recommended that the countries of the North Atlantic band together, under the leadership of the United States, to form ‘a new regional security organization’ to deter Soviet expansion.” He went on to state “In such an organization each member state could accept a binding obligation to pool the whole of its economic and military resources with those of the other members if any power should be found to have committed aggression against any one of the members.”

    The name of the British Imperial game has always been “balance of power”. Manipulate society as a single closed system by monopolizing resources, and then manage the diminishing rates of return by creating conflict between potential allies. This process can be seen clearly today behind the conflicts manipulated in the South China Sea between China and Philippines, the Diaoyu-Senkaku Islands between China and Japan, wars for oil in the Middle East and the new tension being created in the Arctic. The opposing, typically “American System of Political Economy” has always disobeyed this game of “balancing a fixed system” by introducing creative change.

    The American System on the other hand, has traditionally located its point of emphasis primarily upon creating new resources, through inventions and discoveries, rather than simply looting, consuming, and distributing what already exists. This system formulated by Benjamin Franklin, Alexander Hamilton, John Quincy Adams, Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt proved that more energy could always be produced than was consumed IF discoveries and inventions were cultivated in a creatively developing society, shaped by concrete national intentions and bold visionary goals to increase the powers of production of society. The American System is thus understood as an open-system founded upon win-win cooperation while the British System is based on a closed-system worldview under a win-lose operating system where the elite managing nations from above dictate the wars, and diminishing rates of returns to a depopulated society.

    Since the British system implies that the world resources are limited, then the stronger will necessarily have to loot the weaker… Hence, the system is also “zero-sum”.

    Throughout the Cold War, Canada’s role as a “middle power” was defined most succinctly by Fabian Society asset Pierre Elliot Trudeau, who, when asked what his foreign policy was, explained simply: “to create counterweights”. That is, when the “geopolitical center of gravity” moves towards “capitalist America”, then Canada must move towards befriending “socialist” Russia and its allies. When the center of gravity moves towards a Russian edge within the Great Game, then do the opposite. Although the Cold War “officially” ended in 1991, the imperial Great Game never did, and Canada’s role as a British chess piece continues unabated to the present.

    The future battleground which Canada is being prepared to set up is to be found in the Arctic.

    The Strategy of the Arctic in History

    The struggle for Arctic dominance is currently being defined by the rules of British geopolitics. The above map features the layout of the arctic with dotted lines defining areas still not under the control of any particular nation.

    Today, the northern Arctic is among the last unexplored and undeveloped frontiers on the earth. With an area over 14 million square kilometers, this area is rich in a variety of mineral and gas deposits containing approximately 90 billion barrels of oil and 1670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. This abundance is complicated by the fact that its borders are highly undefined, overlapping eight major nations with Canada and Russia as the dominant claimants.

    In recent history, American System methods were attempted in the opening up of the Arctic for mutual development and cooperation beginning with the sale of Alaska to America in 1867 by the “American system Czar” Alexander II to the allies of Abraham Lincoln. These same forces orchestrated the construction of the Trans-Siberian railway and heavily promoted the Bering Strait Rail tunnel connecting the two great continents which arose by the turn of the century. Early designs for the Russian-American rail connection were published in 1893 by Governor William Gilpin of Colorado which gained renewed support by the soon-to-be-deposed Czar Nicholas II in 1905. Russia again revived this project in 2011.

    Throughout the 20th Century, Russia has developed a far greater aptitude at creating corridors of permanent habitation in the Arctic relative to their North American counterparts which are expanding at a fast pace under Putin’s Eastern vision and China’s Polar Silk Road. Due to the post WWII Cold War dynamic of tension, much that could have been accomplished, had resources not been so badly drained by Cold War militarization, was not.

    The beacon of light during this Cold Dark process was to be found in Canada’s 13th Prime Minister John Diefenbaker, whose Northern Vision, unveiled in 1958, hinged upon his $78 million allocation for funds to construct a permanent domed nuclear-powered city in Frobisher Bay (now named Iqaluit, the capital of Nunavut), as a test case for a greater nation building program in the Arctic. When Diefenbaker was run out of office in 1963 through a British-steered operation, his vision was scrapped, and a new Arctic doctrine was artificially imposed upon Canada.

    False Polarizations Imposed onto Arctic Grand Strategy

    This new imperial Arctic doctrine was modeled around the two (anti-nation building) measures of “conservation” of fixed ecosystems and indigenous cultures on the one side, and rapacious mineral exploitation for the increasingly deregulated “global markets” on the other. Canadian examples of this operation can be seen in the Munk School of Global Affairs, the World Wildlife Fund of Canada (whose 2nd president was the CEO of Royal Dutch Shell), and their powerful affiliate, the Walter and Duncan Gordon Foundation, presided over by Pierre Trudeau’s former Principal Secretary Thomas Axworthy. Barack Gold Founder and CEO Peter Munk was one of hundreds of oil barons who acted as founding members of the 1001 Club which was created by Prince Bernhardt of the Netherlands and Prince Philip of England in order to fund the WWF in its early years. Other Canadian Deep State founding members of the 1001 Club included WWF Vice Presidents Maurice Strong and Louis Mortimer Bloomfield.

    Axworthy is a major player in the Canada 2020 machine associated with the current Liberal Party of Justin Trudeau. The overlap of major banking institutions like the Royal Bank of Canada and Scotiabank with the mineral cartels, holding companies and environmental organizations in this structure produces a very real picture that the left and the right are merely two sides of the same imperial beast.

    The role of the above interests in creating the Arctic Council in 1996 (and the later Circumpolar Business Forum) was designed to trap nations into an intellectual cage of resource exploitation under free market doctrines of zero national planning on the one side, with eco-systems management and zero national planning on the other. Now that the post-1971 world financial order is on the verge of collapse, these technocrats believe that a new replacement system will allow for national planning, but only on condition that it be directed by Malthusian technocrats and aimed at the goal of lowering the population potential of the planet. This agenda has come to be known as the Green New Deal in 2018 and since evolved into the Great Reset Agenda.

    To re-emphasize: When observed from a top-down perspective, both the “left” eco-green movement and the “right” monetarist institutions are one single thing. It is only by foolishly looking at this process from the “bottom up” that apparent differences are perceived. This is just an illusion for the credulous victims of an imperial education system who have been taught to believe their sense perceptions more than their powers of reason. The reality is that this is nothing more than British Malthusian geopolitics.

    Breaking Out of the Great Game

    The fact is that while the Atlantic economies have currently submitted to the City of London- Wall Street and Troika demands for policies of depopulation, austerity and hyperinflation, Russia and China are committed to true development. Both countries are intent on creating a unified block of win-win cooperation based upon the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Eurasian Economic Union and BRICS and that intention is based on anti-Malthusian scientific and technological progress. The Belt and Road Initiative which now involves over 135 countries exemplifies this spirit.

    The financial system of the trans-Atlantic is collapsing and it will be reset. The only question is, will it be reset by the open system agenda advocated by Russia and China or will it be the closed system unipolar agenda promoted by sociopathic Davos creatures?

    If western societies should wish to have any claim to being morally fit to survive, then this is an optimistic power that we must re-awaken in ourselves fast. For it is only by acting on principles of scientific discovery and progress that a proper perspective can be discovered to overcome the current obstacles to our survival. That is, the discovery of what the future can and must become IF a creative change is introduced into the system.

    The only pathway to avoiding the collapse of the financial system and a thermonuclear war is to be found in imposing Natural Law vigorously upon the claimed “debts” which Wall Street, and the City of London wishes to have bailed out. The expression of this Natural Law takes the form of the restoration of Glass-Steagall laws across the trans-Atlantic economies, eliminating the $1.5 quadrillion debt bomb before it explodes and returning to the principles of national banking for all countries. Under such a reform and by joining in common interest with other nations in the Eurasian zone, a commitment to progress and security can be realized, and such poisonous agendas as the Great Reset can be avoided.

    Escaping the British two-sided trap of monetarism and ecologism means going to fusion energy, space exploration, and mining the moon for Helium-3 as China is already preparing to do. It means closing the fuel cycle, and scrapping low quality “green” energy boondoggles.

    The applications of a forward-looking space age society using fusion power, involves not only rendering imperial wars for oil and water obsolete (as energy and water will be made both incommensurably cheap and abundant relative to the fossil fuel based system now defining society’s limits), but gives mankind the tools to green deserts, build great projects, create a system of Asteroid Defense and construct the long-overdue Bering Strait Tunnel, a key link in the World Land Bridge. These are the sorts of long term projects which not only remind us of our common self interests, but as JFK described the space program in 1962, create goals which “will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills”.

    Without this sort of “outside the box” thinking, it is safe to say that the current rules of the game now in place are set for total self-destruction.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 02/11/2021 – 00:00

  • Visualizing Global Attitudes Towards The COVID-19 Vaccines
    Visualizing Global Attitudes Towards The COVID-19 Vaccines

    To vaccinate, or not to vaccinate? That is the question.

    In order to achieve herd immunity against COVID-19, some experts believe that between 70% to 80% of a population must be vaccinated.

    But, as Katie Jones of VisualCapitalist notes, attitudes towards these vaccines are undoubtedly mixed. In fact, it’s estimated that one-third of people globally have some major concerns.

    View the high-resolution of the infographic by clicking here.

    Using survey data from eight different countries, Global Web Index created five archetypes to help illustrate how typical attitudes towards vaccines differ depending on a range of factors, such as age, income, lifestyle, and values.

    Countries surveyed: United States, Germany, United Kingdom, Brazil, China, India, Japan, and Italy.

    Which segment are you most likely to fall under, according to these segments?

    Vaccine Supporters

    Which segment are you most likely to fall under, according to these segments?

    [People who say they will get the COVID-19 vaccine.]

    Out of all participants surveyed, 66% of them support the idea of getting a COVID-19 vaccine. Within this group, there is a skew towards younger people (aged 18-34) who are likely working professionals earning a high income and living in a city.

    Despite their optimism towards COVID-19 vaccines, however, one-third of vaccine supporters say they will wait to get one, due to lingering concerns regarding issues with vaccine distribution and any potential side-effects.

    Interestingly, this procrastination mindset has been seen before during the H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic when both members of the general public and healthcare workers showed low levels of vaccine acceptance due to safety concerns.

    Vaccine Hesitant

    [People who are not sure if they will get the COVID-19 vaccine.]

    The vaccine hesitant group, which is more common among cautious suburban parents, makes up 12% of the total study. They are more likely to be female, and feel anxious about the length of time spent testing vaccines and therefore require more transparency around the science.

    With that being said, this group could be easily swayed, as they are more receptive to word-of-mouth and messaging boards to get advice from their peers over any other medium.

    Vaccine Obligated

    [People who will only get the vaccine if it’s necessary for travel, school, work etc.]

    The vaccine obligated group makes up 11% of the total, and has a skew towards males aged between 16 and 24 years old.

    While this group is also concerned with potential side-effects, their responses suggesting that a vaccine may not be necessary to combat COVID-19 was above average compared to other segments in the study. They also index above average when it comes to viewing themselves as traditionalists.

    Vaccine Skeptical

    [People who won’t get the COVID-19 vaccine.]

    The vaccine skeptical group makes up another 11% of the total. However, this group is mostly female, who are aged between 45-64 and earn a lower-than-average income. They are less likely to have a college degree, and are more likely to live in a rural area.

    Along with the worry of potential side-effects, this group is generally more pessimistic about containing COVID-19 at all. Therefore a small percentage do not believe a vaccine will help tackle the global health crisis.

    With notably low trust levels, this group is one of the hardest to reach and potentially persuade. What makes them unique however, is their lack of faith in the scientific process.

    Anti-Vaxxers

    [People who will not get the vaccine, because they are against vaccines in general.]

    It is important to note that those who choose not to get a COVID-19 vaccine should not be confused with anti-vaxxers.

    Anti-vaxxers are a sub-segment of the vaccine skeptical group that makes up 1.4% of the total population. The difference is, anti-vaxxers do not believe in getting any vaccine due to safety concerns, not just not a vaccine for COVID-19.

    According to the study, anti-vaxxers tend to fall into one of two age brackets, between 16-24 years or 55-64 years old, and are typically males with lower incomes.

    Another Tool in the Arsenal Against COVID-19

    The study demonstrates that broad segments of society—regardless of their demographic or views—are at least somewhat concerned about COVID-19 vaccines becoming widely available.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 23:45

  • Facebook Hires Former NATO Press Officer As Its 'Intelligence Chief'
    Facebook Hires Former NATO Press Officer As Its ‘Intelligence Chief’

    Authored by Alan Macleod via MintPressNews.com,

    Ben Nimmo, a former NATO press officer and current senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, has announced Facebook has hired him to “lead global threat intelligence strategy against influence operations” and “emerging threats.” Nimmo specifically named Russia, Iran and China as potential dangers to the platform.

    His announcement was greeted with joy by several NATO officials but was not met with such enthusiasm by others. “More censorship on the way as the former NATO press officer turned Pentagon-funded ‘researcher’ who labeled real people as Russian bots and peddled disinformation to link Jeremy Corbyn to Russian active measures moves to big tech,” responded investigative journalist Max Blumenthal.

    Ben Nimmo

    Nimmo’s questionable past certainly raises questions over whether such an official having a substantial say in what 2.8 billion Facebook users worldwide see in their feeds is such a positive step for the free and open exchange of information.

    “Disinformation Agents”

    For example, in 2019, U.K. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn revealed secret Conservative Party documents showing negotiations the Tory government had with the U.S. over the privatization of the National Health Service (NHS). With just days to go before the U.K. general election, the scandal could have toppled the government and brought into power the most radical antiwar, anti-establishment government in the country’s history. Corporate media went into overdrive to spin the news, and Nimmo was a key part of this, immediately announcing, without evidence, that the documents “closely resemble…a known Russian operation.” His supposedly expert conjecture allowed the story to become “Corbyn’s links to Russia” rather than “Tories privatizing the NHS in secret.” Nimmo’s work helped the Conservatives to an election victory and consigned Corbyn to the scrapheap.

    This was much to the relief of Nimmo’s Atlantic Council, who had branded Corbyn the “Kremlin’s Trojan Horse” — someone pushing Moscow’s agenda abroad. A British Army general was of a similar opinion, claiming that if Corbyn were to win the election, the military would respond. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also said that the U.S. government was “doing its best” to prevent a radical leftist from winning power in the U.K.

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    Nimmo has been extremely liberal with whom he labels Russian disinformation agents. In 2018, his research identified one Twitter user, @Ian56789, as a “Kremlin troll.” In reality, the user, Ian Shilling, was a British pensioner, as Sky News was easily able to confirm, interviewing him on air and asking him the patently absurd question if he was actually a Russian bot or not. Despite clearly being a flesh and blood human, Shilling’s account was later deleted anyway.

    In the past, Nimmo has also insisted that Ruslana Boshirova was an influential Russian bot. In reality, she is an internationally known concert pianist, as one Google search would have shown. This sort of behavior does not augur well for those critical of Western foreign policy, who have faced constant harassment, suspension, or outright bans from social media.

    Pro-war Putsch

    The Atlantic Council began as an offshoot of NATO itself and maintains extremely close connections to the military alliance. It continues to receive major funding from Western governments and weapons contractors, and its board of directors is filled to the brim with senior American statespersons, such as Colin Powell, Condoleezza Rice, and Henry Kissinger. Also appearing on the board are no fewer than seven former CIA directors and a number of top military generals, such as Jim “Mad Dog” Mattis, Wesley Clark, and David Petraeus.

    In recent years, the council’s employees have penetrated deep into big tech and social media organizations. In 2018, it announced it had partnered with Facebook to aid in the curation of Facebook news feeds of users worldwide, giving it considerable power over what sort of views to highlight and which to demote. One year previously, Jessica Ashooh left the position of the council’s Deputy Director of Middle Eastern Strategy to take the position of Director of Policy at Reddit, the eighth-most visited website in the United States. However, as with many intelligence agencies, it is unclear whether one truly “leaves” the Atlantic Council.

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    It is not just Russia that is in NATO’s crosshairs. Last week, the Atlantic Council published an anonymous, 26,000-word report stating that their goal for China was regime change and advising President Biden to draw a number of “red lines” around it, beyond which the U.S. would respond militarily. Meanwhile, the head of STRATCOM, Admiral Charles A. Richard, wrote that the U.S. must prepare for a potential nuclear war with Beijing.

    Greater Control

    The military escalation has been mirrored by an intensifying online propaganda war, where the U.S. has attempted to isolate China economically and stop advancing Chinese technologies such as Huawei’s 5G network, mobile phone, and semiconductor manufacturer Xiaomi, and video sharing app TikTok. Nimmo has played his part in ramping up suspicions of nefarious Chinese activity online, claiming the existence of a wide-ranging pro-Beijing bot network encouraging Americans to believe that China has handled the COVID-19 pandemic far better than the United States. That Americans might have come to that conclusion on their own appears not to have been considered.

    There is an enormous government effort to convince its population of the existence of (foreign) government efforts to manipulate their opinions online. In a massive case of projection, Western governmental organizations point the finger at their enemies, all the while securing greater access and control over the means of communication themselves, to the point where it is now difficult to distinguish where the deep state ends and the fourth estate begins.

    Nimmo’s move from NATO to NATO-aligned think tank to Facebook is just another example of this phenomenon. Perhaps the reason Nimmo is not looking for any Western influence operations online is that he is part of one.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 23:25

  • Struggling Airlines Abandon Business Hubs And Reroute Flights To Tropical Areas 
    Struggling Airlines Abandon Business Hubs And Reroute Flights To Tropical Areas 

    Struggling airlines such as United, Delta, and American airlines have dealt with the most challenging year in their companies’ history. Even with vaccine rollouts, 2021 business travel demand is not lifting off as previously anticipated, resulting in airlines routing flights for leisure travel, to areas such as Florida, according to Bloomberg

    Travelers departing from Boston, Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Indianapolis have noticed an abundance of non-stop flights to warmer regions in Florida such as Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, Orlando, Key West, and Tampa.

    Ankit Gupta, United’s vice president for domestic network planning, said this has to do with “demand.” He said, “the sunshine states are seeing much more travel demand than before, on a relative basis, while it evaporated in the Northeast.”

    Another high demand area is Los Cabos, Mexico, said Paul Tumpowsky, founder and chief executive officer of high-end travel agency Skylark.

    Tumpowsky said flights from the Northeast to Los Cabos, Mexico, were increased by United, Delta, and American this winter as demand for warmer climates booms. He said the ease of access to warmer areas such as Hawaii, Guatemala City, and the Caribbean with non-stop flights would soon increase among other carriers. 

    Routes from Northeast states to Europe will likely remain limited, said Patrick Quayle, United’s vice president of international network and alliances. He noted entry requirements that range from vaccine passports to quarantines would continue to suppress demand for European travel markets. 

    As of January, seat capacity remained at 50% compared with the same month last year. Travel analytics company Cirium estimates that 30% of the global commercial airplanes are in storage. 

    Airlines are becoming more data-sensitive and will shift flights to hotspot areas. Savvy travelers are taking advantage of cheap airfare this winter to beach towns in the tropics. 

    So with airlines ditching business hubs and rerouting flights to tropical beach towns, the shift in travel type might forever change as companies adopt remote working. Goodbye business travel means the airline industry may experience a permanent decline. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 23:05

  • US Shifts Official Justification Of Its Illegal Presence In Syria From "Guarding Oil" To "Fighting ISIS"
    US Shifts Official Justification Of Its Illegal Presence In Syria From “Guarding Oil” To “Fighting ISIS”

    Submitted by Khaled Iskef via SouthFront.org,

    On February 9, the Pentagon announced that its forces in Syria are no longer responsible for the protection of the oil wells.

    A Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, said that the employees and contractors of the US Department of Defense are no longer allowed to assist any private company seeking to exploit the oil resources in Syria, nor to help the employees of this company or its agents.

    Kirby added that the 900 personnel stationed in the region are there to support the mission of fighting ISIS only, which is the main reason for their presence.

    The announcement of the US Department to shift the formal objectives of its military presence in Syria goes contrary to the position of the administration of former President Donald Trump. President Joe Biden announced that it would fix what Trump ‘sabotaged’ in the US policies.

    Two years ago, Trump that he would keep a limited contingent of US forces in Syria to protect the oil wells, and said at the time that the US forces would take their share of the Syrian oil.

    Last July, the SDF signed an agreement with a private US company called Delta Crescent Energy to modernize the oil wells seized by the SDF with the support of US forces, and to smuggle the oil extracted from them outside the Syrian territories.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 22:45

  • Biden Holds First Phone Call With Xi, Both Sides Offer Vastly Different Accounts Of What Was Said
    Biden Holds First Phone Call With Xi, Both Sides Offer Vastly Different Accounts Of What Was Said

    Nearly a month after his inauguration and more than three months since the presidential election, Joe Biden held his first call with Xi Jinping since entering the White House, just days after his secretary of state warned Beijing that Washington would hold China accountable for its “abuses”.

    In a Wednesday night tweet, Biden said that he spoke today with President Xi “to offer good wishes to the Chinese people for Lunar New Year.” He also shared concerns “about Beijing’s economic practices, human rights abuses, and coercion of Taiwan” and told him that Biden “will work with China when it benefits the American people.”

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    The White house also chimed in saying that “President Biden underscored his fundamental concerns about Beijing’s coercive and unfair economic practices, crackdown in Hong Kong, human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and increasingly assertive actions in the region, including toward Taiwan. President Biden committed to pursuing practical, results-oriented engagements when it advances the interests of the American people and those of our allies.”

    “The two leaders also exchanged views on countering the COVID-19 pandemic, and the shared challenges of global health security, climate change, and preventing weapons proliferation. President Biden committed to pursuing practical, results-oriented engagements when it advances the interests of the American people and those of our allies” the White House said.

    The call, however, had vastly different content when retold from China’s side.

    According to an account of the conversation reported by Chinese state television, Xi said that “cooperation was the only choice and that the two countries need to properly manage disputes in a constructive manner.” Xi also told Biden that “confrontation between China and the United States would be a disaster and the two sides should re-establish the means to avoid misjudgments.”

    Xi also said Beijing and Washington should re-establish various mechanisms for dialogue in order to understand each others’ intentions and avoid misunderstandings, the report said.

    Finally, and most bizarrely, Xi told Biden that he hopes the United States will cautiously handle matters related to Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang that deal with matters of China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Quite the opposite of what Biden reportedly told Xi…

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    How is it possible that both sides came away with such profoundly different summaries of what was said: maybe the two were talking without a translator?

    Ahead of the call, a senior US official said Biden had planned to raise a number of issues with Xi, including China’s crackdown on the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong and its repression of Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang. It wasn’t clear if Hunter Biden was also discussed.

    “The president will raise [Hong Kong and Xinjiang] directly with Xi Jinping on the call . . . and indicate that this is not just about American values, it’s about universal values,” the official said. “It is about obligations that China itself has signed on to with respect to core international agreements.”

    Biden’s secretary of state, Anthony Blinken, angered the Chinese last month when speaking to his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, in the first high-level interaction between the countries since Biden became president, Blinken said the US viewed the detention of an estimated 1 million Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang as “genocide”.

    China’s treatment of its Muslim population has sparked calls for countries to boycott the 2022 winter Olympics in Beijing. Asked if Biden would raise the games in the call, the senior US official said it would “not be on the agenda”. In fact, we doubt that any truly controversial topics were breached for the reason discussed in “Blockbuster Report Reveals How Biden Family Was Compromised By China.

    Meanwhile, relations between China and the US remain at rock bottom. After years of escalating trade wars between Trump and Xi, the Financial Times reported that Chinese warplanes entered Taiwan’s air defence zone just after Biden’s inauguration and simulated missile attacks on the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier in the South China Sea. Which may explain why the US has now sent a second aircraft carrier in the South China Sea where it is holding naval exercises even as Beijing blasts the “blow to peace and stability.”

    On Sunday, Biden told CBS News that China would face “extreme competition” from the US. While he praised his Chinese counterpart — whom he knows from his time as Barack Obama’s vice-president — as “very bright”, he said he “doesn’t have a democratic . . . bone in his body”.

    Just a few days prior, Blinken told Yang the US would stand up for democracy and human rights, signalling a hawkish stance towards China. “I made clear the US will . . . hold Beijing accountable for its abuses of the international system,” Blinken wrote on Twitter following the call. In response, Yang warned the US not to interfere in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, saying “no one can stop the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”.

    It’s unclear if that means that “10 for the big guy” will now stop.

     

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 22:37

  • Salary Transparency? Survey Reveals Older Employees Far Less Likely To Disclose Pay
    Salary Transparency? Survey Reveals Older Employees Far Less Likely To Disclose Pay

    Over the last several years, a movement has emerged promoting salary transparency throughout various industries, which, according to Glassdoor.com “helps expose pay gaps between otherwise similar workers, encouraging underpaid employees to negotiate or move to better-fitting jobs, improving overall efficiency in labor markets.”

    “In recent years, there has been a gradual shift away from traditional workplace secrecy and toward more transparent salary policies,” according to a 2015 report by Glassdoor chief economist, Andrew Chamberlain.

    Fast forward six years, and the salary transparency movement is still trying to go mainstream.

    According to a January survey of 1,500 workers conducted by career resource site Zippia, it may simply be suffering from a lack of participation – particularly among older workers. In fact, 50% of workers overall are unwilling to share their salary information, while 30% of workers say they would be uncomfortable sharing their salaries, period.

    Workers 25-34 years old are most comfortable sharing salary information- a whopping 58% are willing to discuss salary. Who is less eager to share? Older workers. In particular, those over 45.

    As this age group ages and advances in their careers, this open attitude could increase salary transparency. However, it is possible younger workers will shed their desire to freely share salary information as they are promoted. –Zippia

    More findings via Zippia:

    • Another are 20% uncertain about whether or not they’d share how much they make.
    • Only 45% of workers feel they are adequately paid; Another 25% say they are “somewhat” fairly paid.
    • 25-34 year olds are most comfortable sharing salary information- a whopping 58% are willing to discuss salary.
    • Those over 45 are least willing to share their salary at work.
    • Half of workers would ask for more money if they knew coworkers made more than them.
    • It pays to make friends: 29% of workers report they would only feel comfortable discussing salary at work with close, friendly coworkers.
    • Good luck finding our your boss’ salary: Only 6% would feel comfortable telling someone who directly reports to them how much they make.

    Here’s a US map with salary transparency by state:

    So, does salary transparency lead to higher pay? That’s unclear – but workers who are expecting a ‘large raise’ were most likely to disclose their salary than those not expecting a large raise.

    Meanwhile, Indeed.com found in January that most workers and job seekers want to know where they stand. They also found that 66% of those surveyed have never shared their salaries on a job website, while only half have shared their pay with friends, and 60% say they’ve never asked a co-worker what they make.

    21% of those surveyed say it feels taboo to discuss pay, with around the same number of people saying that they don’t want to create drama at work, according to Indeed. 14% worry about getting in trouble with management for asking or telling.

    The bottom line, “For employers, fair pay and salary transparency aren’t just noble aims—they are proven strategies to attracting and retaining talent while also encouraging higher engagement and productivity. “

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 22:25

  • Meanwhile In China, A Bankrupt Solar Firm Just Sold $117 Million In Shares
    Meanwhile In China, A Bankrupt Solar Firm Just Sold $117 Million In Shares

    In what at the time was a historic event, taking advantage of the early signs of retail euphoria, back in June bankrupt Hertz tried and almost succeeded in selling shares while in bankruptcy. Only the last minute intervention of a bankruptcy judge prevented what would have been a $1 billion “at the money” offering to Robinhood traders.

    But where Hertz failed a Chinese company has succeeded.

    Bloomberg reports that a Chinese solar power plant firm raised $117.4 million overnight selling 2 billion new shares in Hong Kong — an unremarkable placement at first sight… except that GCL New Energy Holdings is technically bankrupt, having defaulted on a $500 million bond just last week.

    Its stock predictably fell on Wednesday after the share placement, but it’s still up almost 54% this year. In fact, it has risen 49% since announcing the default on Feb. 1.

    The fact that a company in default was able to successfully sell new shares is perhaps not all that surprising as stocks continue to hit new highs on expectations of more stimulus. The rally has prompted companies and shareholders to sell shares, with equity sales and initial public offerings having a record start to the year.

    GCL New Energy is among renewable power developers that have been hurt by China’s government delaying subsidy payments. The firm’s accounts and notes receivable rose to more than 4.5 billion yuan ($699 million) as of June 30, up from 1.9 billion yuan four years earlier.

    And while the company had been selling renewable plants to help pay down debt, but it wasn’t enough to avoid the default earlier this month. As of June, the company had net current liabilities of 6.5 billion yuan, which cast doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern, according to a statement on Dec. 23.

    That’s when an army of new shareholders stepped in, eager to provide the company with much needed liquidity.

    And while Americans watch in disbelief as retail traders take worthless companies orders of magnitude higher, in China this is a routine occurrence: when short-video company Kuaishou Technology went public this month, investors put in hundreds of billions of dollars of orders as “investors, both retail and institutional, have flocked to share offerings in an effort to put idle cash to work given ultra-low interest rates.”

    And while we now know that Ken Griffin, Citadel’s billionaire founder, is expected to testify next week at a House hearing on wild market swings in shares of GameStop and other stocks, we doubt that the real perpetrator of the current bout of market insanity – the Chairman of the Fed – will be present.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 22:05

  • CDC Begins Recommending Wearing Two Masks
    CDC Begins Recommending Wearing Two Masks

    We already know based on objective, impartial, empirical data, that there is effectively no difference in covid case counts/hospitalizations/deaths in states that mandate masks and business restrictions (such as North Dakota) vs states which do not (such as its southern neighbor).

    So, perhaps while looking at this graphic, the CDC had a brilliant idea: ok, one mask does not work, but what about… two masks!

    That’s right: starting Wednesday, the CDC (aka the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) began recommending that Americans wear two masks, or specifically a cloth mask over a medical mask to slow the spread of Covid-19.

    The guidance followed the release of an agency study (because “scientists”) that found double masking can boost protection from aerosolized particles.

    Whereas government officials previously said the CDC was waiting to gather evidence on double masking, they now appear to have a greenlight to mandate double-masking. The new study, part of the agency’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, also examined the efficacy of modifications made to improve the fit of a medical mask. Either double masking or tightening a mask’s fit reduced exposure to aerosols that could be infectious by about 95%, the research concluded.

    “These experiments highlight the importance of good fit to maximize mask performance,” the authors wrote.

    “There are multiple simple ways to achieve better fit of masks to more effectively slow the spread of Covid-19.”

    The findings came from experiments done by the agency last month, which tested how double masking and changes to improve mask fit worked amid coughing, which the researchers simulated. Knotting the loops of a surgical mask and tucking in extra fabric near the face was found to reduce exposure, as was wearing a cloth mask over a surgical mask.

    As a result, the CDC’s new guidance now recommends that Americans should ensure that masks fit tightly on their face and have layers, both of which improve protection.  There are several routes to do that, including wearing a disposable mask beneath a cloth mask or choosing a mask with multiple layers of fabric, according to the recommendation.

    That said, double-masking with two disposable masks, or with a KN95, isn’t recommended.

    “The bottom line is this: Masks work and they work best when they have a good fit and are worn correctly,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said at a White House briefing on Wednesday.

    And while the CDC may argue that “the bottom line” is whatever it wants it to be, at least until it changes its mind in a month to suit some political interest du jour, the reality is that wearing just one mask has shown no tangible improvement on infection numbers.

    In fact, none other than Dr Anthony Fauci said one week ago that “there’s no data that indicates that [double masking] is going to make a difference.”

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    But that was science in January. We now have February science. As a result, it’s time to reset the count and start with two…. then three masks…. then four…. until eventually we all will look like this…

    … at least for a few minutes before everyone dies from asphyxiation.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 21:55

  • Biden Admin Says It Will Continue Trump DOJ's Extradition Of Julian Assange
    Biden Admin Says It Will Continue Trump DOJ’s Extradition Of Julian Assange

    It comes as no surprise that President Biden doesn’t plan to let up on the US pursuit of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, after widespread hopes and expectations that Trump was going to pardon Assange during his last days in office, which didn’t happen.

    Despite the US losing its push in a London court for the UK to extradite him in a ruling early last month on grounds that he would likely be subject to cruel punishment, the US government now has until a February 12 deadline to submit its “grounds for appeal”. It’s now been confirmed that the Biden administration intends to do just that.

    “We continue to seek his extradition,” said Justice Department spokesman Marc Raimondi on Tuesday. This is exactly what Assange’s legal team and supporters feared — Washington plans to drag this out as long as possible, leaving him to languish at Belmarsh prison, tied up in the seeming endless legal process.

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    Initially last year the Trump administrated formally indicted Assange on 17 counts of espionage and one count of conspiracy to commit a computer crime, which together would mean 175 years in prison if convicted.

    Interestingly, Biden’s stance is however a departure from the prior Obama policy. As one of the journalists most closely following Assange’s confinement and trial notes:

    The statement represents a departure from President Barack Obama’s administration, which declined to prosecute Assange. Justice Department officials were reportedly concerned about the threat it would pose to press freedom.

    If he were brought to the United States it would most certainly mean he’d spend the remainder of his life at the notorious at ADX Florence, the supermax facility that currently houses terrorists, murderers, and traitors to the US government – where inmates spend 23 out of 24 hours in a small cell with no view of the outside world.

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    Based on this British district judge Vanessa Baraitser’s January 4th decision cited that Assange’s fragile mental state was “such that it would be oppressive to extradite him to the United States of America.”

    Thus it appears the legal saga and Assange’s imprisonment could press on for months more, and according to the worst-case scenario, even years.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 21:45

  • A Third Of All US Homeowners Own Property Worth Double The Underlying Mortgage
    A Third Of All US Homeowners Own Property Worth Double The Underlying Mortgage

    In the midst of a virus pandemic, with millions of Americans out of work facing housing and food insecurities, the Federal Reserve has managed to keep interest rates near zero, unleashing a real estate boom, the likes of which hasn’t been seen in years. 

    The central-planning mega brains at the Marriner Eccles building in Washington, D.C., have managed to boost home prices almost everywhere. The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index of property values is accelerating at the fastest pace since May 2014. 

    Although the full history of the pandemic’s impact on the housing market is yet to be determined, housing data from ATTOM Data Solutions for 4Q20 shows low-interest rates boosted the number of equity-rich properties. 

    ATTOM showed at least 30% of U.S. homeowners were equity rich, which means their property was worth twice as much as their mortgage. Last quarter’s equity-rich properties were about 30.2%, or about one in three, of the 59 million mortgaged U.S. homes. The figure was up from 28.3% in the third quarter, 27.5% in the second quarter, and 26.7% in the fourth quarter of 2019.

    Despite the virus pandemic crushing the working-poor and devastating tens of millions of American households, the central planners in the Eccles building decided to inflate the housing market with low-interest rates. The federal government also played its part by initiating forbearance programs to keep homeowners from panic selling properties they could no longer afford.   

    “The housing market kept booming despite the damage caused by the virus pandemic to the broader economy,” said Todd Teta, ATTOM’s chief product officer.

    “Homeowners are sitting pretty on a growing reserve of personal wealth.”

    Why does this matter? Simple: The Fed is creating a wealth effect with rising home values to make people feel more wealthy, so they spend more. Though the wealth effect benefits certain homeowners and others who own assets have created a failed recovery, known as a “K-shape,” where the working-poor (tens of millions of folks) are left behind. 

    Bloomberg notes the increase in property values has helped reduce the number of underwater properties. These homes have mortgages worth at least 25% more than the market value, have dropped by a full percentage point over the past year, and only account for 5.4% of all mortgaged U.S. properties.

    However, there were six states (Louisiana, Mississippi, West Virginia, Iowa, Arkansas, and Illinois) where the percentage of underwater homes remains above 10%. In Vermont and California, the gap between equity-rich homes and those that are underwater is at 44.7% and 43.6%, respectively. Homes in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, have a larger percentage of underwater homes than equity-rich ones.

    Source: Bloomberg 

    Out of the 107 metropolitan areas with a population over 500k examined by ATTOM, the ten largest equity-rich areas last quarter were in the western part of the country, five of which were in California. The report also showed the top zip codes with the highest share of underwater properties. 

    Source: Bloomberg 

    Despite the Fed buying tens of billions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities every month, allowing rates to stay low to continue its circus act of bubble blowing, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently suggested that the housing market boom was unsustainable and likely to end soon.

    “Some of the tightness in housing markets, which has led to the significant price increases this year, we think is a passing phenomenon,” Powell said.

    Quoting Powell, the American Enterprise Institute Housing Center warned that “the housing sector has more than fully recovered from the downturn,” adding that “there is no justification for continuing or increasing investment in agency mortgage-backed securities.”

    With the labor market deteriorating and the economy stalling, the Fed will have no other choice but to continue inflating the housing bubble until it bursts.

    Powell and the rest of the central-planners better wake up to the reality that their so-called ‘recovery’ has left tens of millions of people behind. Simply put, trillions in stimulus aren’t working… and if the delusion of printed-money-driven home equity sparks a consumer re-leveraging (which, it would appear, is the only reason for The Fed to be enabling this farce), then we all know how that ends (or did we all forget 2008?)… Except this time it’s everything!

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 21:25

  • JPMorgan: Investors Have Been Asking Questions About The Potential For Hyperinflation
    JPMorgan: Investors Have Been Asking Questions About The Potential For Hyperinflation

    The following excerpts from today’s JPMorgan Market Intelligence report (Afternoon Briefing) from JPM’s Andrew Tyler:

    EQUITY AND MACRO NARRATIVE: The CPI print today may assuage some of the building anxiety regarding inflation. While the reflation trade is approaching consensus long, investors across all asset classes have been asking questions about the probability/risk of inflation occurring this year as well as the potential for hyperinflation. Hyperinflation seems unlikely while the US labor market recovers.

    That said, it is possible to see some transitory spikes to inflation due to COVID-induced bottlenecks. The market’s  expectations for inflation continue to trend higher, evidenced by US breakeven rates and 5Y5Y inflation swaps.

    Insert photo of guy with wheelbarrow full of cash here.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 21:05

  • Rights Groups Outraged After Twitter Purges Accounts Of Saudi Political Prisoners
    Rights Groups Outraged After Twitter Purges Accounts Of Saudi Political Prisoners

    Twitter is once again being called out for its free speech hypocrisy and double-dealing when it comes to influential and wealthy foreign governments allied closely with Washington. In this latest case Twitter has purged accounts of recent Saudi political prisoners

    A number of prominent Saudi activists and public intellectuals that ran afoul of the royal family have languished in Saudi prisons since the 2017 crackdown under the auspices of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), which most famously saw a number of princes and high profile officials temporarily confined to the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh.

    According to Middle East Eye (MEE) Twitter has removed ‘blue check’ verification badges of many of these prisoners given their account inactivity, or in other cases suspending them altogether

    The report details some of the following instances

    Among those whose verification label has been removed are Ali al-Omary and Awad al-Qarni, two senior religious figures who have been jailed since 2017. They were seized during a purge that followed Mohammed bin Salman‘s rise to the position of crown prince.

    Similarly, the accounts of the Saudi philanthropist Khaled al-Mohawesh and journalist Khaled al-Alkami, also jailed in the 2017 purge, had their blue tick removed, according to the advocacy Twitter account Prisoners of Conscience. It added that the account of economist Essam el-Zamil, another political prisoner, has been suspended. He tweeted under the handle @Essamz.

    Some of the activists were reportedly targeted by MbS because they publicly spoke out against the economic blockade on neighboring Qatar, a diplomatic crisis which has since been largely resolved, with the Saudi-UAE sanctions on Qatar lifted. 

    Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey & Mohammed bin Salman in a photo posted by Bader al-Asaker to Instagram in June 2016, via MEE

    Others were reportedly women’s rights activists and those seen as luke-warm or doubtful on MbS’ promises of “reform” in the kingdom. 

    In many instances, activists or protesters had “terrorism”-related charges brought during their trials, which in Saudi Arabia is often broadly applied to enemies of the ruling family, especially when it comes to Shia dissidents in the country’s east. 

    The controversy comes amid international pressure for Riyadh to free imprisoned activists in the kingdom:

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    Twitter has a current policy of removing or de-verifying “inactive and incomplete” accounts, including for the deceased, but regional human rights observers say that in this context it’s “uncalled for” and could potentially be seen as rewarding oppressive governments like Saudi Arabia

    Two such high-profile religious figures which have recently been ‘de-verified’ were featured in the MEE report:

    Abdullah Alaoudh of the Gulf at Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), explained: “While there is a policy to remove inactive accounts, those who are forcibly disappeared or arbitrarily detained should be treated as an exception,” he told Middle East Eye.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 20:45

  • Platinum Soars To Six Year Highs Amid Supply Shortage, Industrial Demand Hope
    Platinum Soars To Six Year Highs Amid Supply Shortage, Industrial Demand Hope

    The epidemic of catalytic converter theft should have been the most recent tell; but combining the recent supply shortage (the US Mint unable to meet platinum coin investment demand and South African mining issues) with demand hopes from a post-pandemic vaccine-supported industrial rebound (as well as an increasingly green global agenda against emissions) has sent platinum prices soaring in recent weeks, and much more so this week, to the highest since Jan 2015.

    “The combination of supply losses due to pandemic-driven mine closures, ongoing South African processing disruption, and strong investment demand more than offsets lower Covid-19-impacted automotive, jewellery and industrial demand.”

    Source: Bloomberg

    A perfect storm this week has seen the precious metal dramatically outperform its peers against a backdrop of dollar weakness…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Heavily used in catalytic converters – to reduce emissions from cars and trucks – Bloomberg notes that Palladium has been trading at a big discount to sister-metal palladium, which is also used primarily in catalytic converters. The price disparity between the two, as well as tougher regulations on emissions, has raised expectations that platinum will see greater use.

    Source: Bloomberg

    Notably, Platinum’s shortfall of supply over demand came even as auto-catalyst consumption “plunged by 22%, with steep falls in European diesel car production,” says technology specialist Johnson Matthey in its new PGM Market Report.

    “Autocatalyst demand will recover strongly on higher car output and stricter emissions limits for trucks in China. Industrial consumption will remain robust, with PGM use in chemicals [manufacturing] set to reach an all-time high.”

    There are also pressures on the supply side, as BullionVault.com reports, South Africa’s struggling power utility Eskom imposed a fresh round of electricity cuts – extending a run starting last Saturday – on households and business, running from 1pm through to 6am Thursday local time.

    “The mining industry is heavily reliant on electric output,” notes the precious metals team at French bank and London bullion market makers BNP Paribas, “and so is likely to suffer production slowness…That obviously translates into higher prices of PGMs today.”

    Looking ahead to 2021, “PGM supply and demand are forecast to bounce back in a V-shaped recovery,” says Johnson Matthey’s new report.

    “Oil is going up and commodities in general are going up,” Johan Theron, spokesman for Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd.

    “On a relative basis platinum is low on a historical level. So it’s definitely receiving a lot of investor attention and not necessarily that anything fundamentally has changed in the short-term outlook.”

    Strong investment demand from those expecting a catch-up to gold and palladium also has been supportive, and today’s CPI miss sparked more ‘bad news is good news’ support in the hopes that more stimulus will be delivered sooner, enabling even more of an industrial rebound.

    Source: Bloomberg

    “Optimism on the outlook for industrial and car demand, more stringent emission regulations and, in the last couple of days, some weakness in the dollar” have driven platinum higher, said Georgette Boele, senior precious metals strategist at ABN Amro Bank NV.

    “Longer-term there is much more potential” for the price to rise, she said.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 20:25

  • Biden Mulls Domestic Travel Restrictions Despite Improving COVID Backdrop
    Biden Mulls Domestic Travel Restrictions Despite Improving COVID Backdrop

    Despite headlines discussing COVID ‘plateaus‘ and ‘dramatic declines‘ in the United States, the Biden administration is mulling whether to impose domestic travel restrictions over concerns that “coronavirus mutations are threatening to reverse hard-fought progress on the pandemic,” according to the Miami Herald.

    Outbreaks of the new variants — including a highly contagious one first identified in the United Kingdom, as well as others from South Africa and Brazil that scientists worry can evade existing vaccineshave lent urgency to a review of potential travel restrictions within the United States, one federal official said.

    Discussions in the administration over potential travel restrictions do not target a specific state but focus on how to prevent the spread of variants that appear to be surging in a number of states, including Florida and California. –Miami Herald

    There are active conversations about what could help mitigate spread here, but we have to follow the data and what’s going to work. We did this with South Africa, we did this with Brazil, because we got clear guidance,” said one White House official. “But we’re having conversations about anything that would help mitigate spread,” the official added regarding the discussions aimed at targeting the spread of the UK mutation in places like Florida – where over a third of all UK variant cases in the US have been identified.

    Two federal officials made clear that no policy announcements are imminent, and that any travel restrictions would be undertaken in coordination with state and local governments.

    No decisions have been made, but we certainly are having conversations across government,” said the White House official, adding “This is a war and we’re at battle with the virus. War is messy and unpredictable, and all options are on the table.”

    The potential action comes after Biden directed the CDC, the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Transportation to “promptly” create a list of recommendations on “how their respective agencies may impose additional public health measures for domestic travel.”

    Meanwhile, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, the second gay man in US history to hold a cabinet position, has been examining whether to require COVID-19 testing for domestic flights – a suggestion that has drawn criticism from airline execs as “a horrible idea.”

    “We had been pushing the use of a mask mandate, so we were very pleased to see the Biden administration put an executive order in place requiring masks in general spaces and in the airspace. That’s absolutely critical,” said Tori Emerson Barnes, executive vice president of public affairs and policy at the U.S. Travel Association who has spoken with the Biden administration on the matter. “We have some concerns around the idea of a domestic testing requirement, because not only would it require a 42% increase in the testing capacity nationwide, but it’s really not scalable, feasible or effective.”

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    The Herald notes that “COVID-19 cases in Florida have declined in recent weeks,” however the UK variant has “spread rapidly in the state during that time,” and now accounts for up to 15% of new cases in the state, according to estimates from researchers modeling the variant’s spread across the country.

    Florida Governor Ron DeSantis “opposes travel restrictions and does not believe diagnostic tests should be a prerequisite to domestic air travel,” acording to spokeswoman Meredith Beatrice, while Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) wrote Biden to warn that travel restrictions on the state would be “reckless and economically harmful.”

    “Instituting a travel ban, or any restriction of movement between the states, would be an outrageous, authoritarian move that has no basis in law or science,” wrote Rubio.

    Speaking of science, Bank of America just noted that COVID-19 hospitalizations have “declined dramatically” and are down 40% from the peak which occurred on January 5, which they described as “a rapid turn in the crisis.”

    The decrease is broad-based (all 50 states+DC saw no increases over the past week without exception). The weekly percentage change in US Covid-19 hospitalized is consistent with the largest declines seen during the Coronavirus crisis.

    Moreover the 7-day test positivity rate has declined to 6.9% from the 13.6% peak on January 8th. Since  hospitalizations are lagged relative to time
    of infection the US Corona outbreaks peaked back in the second half of December. -Bank of America

     

    According to Robert Bednarczyk, a public health expert and assistant professor at Emory University’s Rollins School of Public Health, nobody knows whether travel restrictions will help, and implementing then now could amount to “closing the barn door once the horse is out.”

    “With only a small fraction of samples tested for specific mutations, this is likely underestimating the amount of spread,” Bednarczyk added, noting that the UK’s B.1.1.7 variant has already spread to 34 other states despite the fact that it’s more concentrated in California and Florida. “In addition to what we’ve been asking of the population — masks, distancing, avoiding large gatherings — I think people should consider avoiding travel, especially to tourist destinations where there’s a greater chance of disease spread to individuals who can take it to more places.”

    Read the rest of the report here.

     

     

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 20:05

  • Kolanovic: A New Commodity Supercycle Has Begun
    Kolanovic: A New Commodity Supercycle Has Begun

    Having dabbled in the fields of viral epidemiology and presidential polling, JPM quant Marko Kolanovic is set to conquer yet another “cross-asset”: commodities.

    Two days after Dylan Grice published an article “The Stage is Set for a Bull Market in Oil“, with various commodities around the world soaring, and the price of oil up a stunning 64% since November, today Marko Kolanovic made a bold prediction – that the world has entered a new commodity supercycle:

    It is generally agreed that over the past 100 years, there were 4 Commodity supercycles and that the last one started in 1996 . We  believe that the last supercycle peaked in 2008 (after 12 years of expansion), bottomed in 2020 (after a 12-year contraction) and that we likely entered an upswing phase of a new commodity supercycle.

    The croatian quant first looks at history to answer “what drove the last supercycle” – according to him, “on the upswing, the most important driver was the economic rise of China (and EMs more broadly). USD was weakening and asset managers increasingly added commodity exposure to diversify portfolios.” Then the 2008 global recession hit, coupled with further slowdown in Europe (2011) and China (2015) which sent commodities lower, defining the 12 year down cycle whose last leg “was marked by trade wars the ensuing global manufacturing recession, and the disastrous pandemic that sent oil prices into negative territory for the first time ever.” This is summarized in the chart below.

    Well, according to the JPM quant, the downcycle is now over, and “the new commodity upswing, and in particular Oil up cycle, has started” driven by the following factors:

    Of these, Kolanovic says that the upcycle will mostly be a story of:

    • postpandemic recovery (‘roaring 20s’),
    • ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies,
    • weak USD,
    • stronger inflation,
    • unintended consequences of environmental policies and their friction with physical constraints related to energy consumption and production.”

    What he means by the last bullet is that as a result of dramatic capex curbs in recent years, with capital instead flowing to various pet ESG projects, there is not nearly enough capacity to meet future demands and the immediate outcome will be far higher prices.

    It’s not just the fundamental factors that form the basis for JPM’s bold call: the bank also believes that the coming years will see a substantial repurposing of financial flows which have “an increasing role in asset pricing (e.g. vs. fundamentals)” is a consequence of “the electronification of liquidity provision, increased use of leverage, and rise of systematic trading strategies and related flows.”

    It is these increasingly fast and furious flows that “exacerbated the size and velocity of price moves both in commodities and related equities” during the last downturn, and these same financial flows “can have a similar impact on prices in the up cycle.”

    Marko then discuss some of the financial flows that he believes will impact commodity and related equity prices: we have excerpted his view on some of the key ones:

    Inflation hedging: The past decade was marked by low growth and low inflation. Bonds, bond proxies and secular growth stocks were in a bull market, while commodities, value and cyclical stocks performed poorly. Kolanovic believes that the tide on yields and inflation is turning, which will pose “a major risk to multi-asset portfolios” and in light of the consensus view that commodities are the best way to hedge rising inflation, the JPM quant expects “these multi-asset portfolios to add commodity and commodity equity exposure to hedge inflation.”

    Bond-equity correlation hedging: Claiming that “bond-equity correlation is a critical input into portfolio construction (selection of assets, weights, leverage)” the quant found that Bond-equity correlation shifted regimes when the last supercycle started in 1997 and when central bank actions started intervening in bond markets to backstop equity risk. Coincidentally, Kolanovic notes, “with the end of the commodity supercycle, short-term rates have dropped globally to zero, and the ability of CBs to reinforce the bond-equity relationship without driving inflation has diminished.” So as the world recovers from Covid on the back of a “monetary and fiscal engineered recovery”, JPMorgan expects volatility to decline and inflation to increase, “delivering a 1-2 punch to bond-equity  correlation.” This means that energy equities “could present a good hedge for bond-equity correlation – they often deliver a yield (like bonds) but also hedge the inflation and bond-equity correlation risk.” Incidentally, Exxon still offers a 7% dividend yield despite oil prices being high enough to where the risk of the dividend being canceled is virtually gone.

    Quants and Momentum Investing: In a market where algos and trend-followers have emerged as one of the dominant price-setting forces, it is hardly a surprise that the JPM quant focuses on their influence as the driver behind a commodity supercycle. Indeed, he writes that after “CTAs played significant role in the 2014 oil price downturn” more recently, “CTA funds have been adding Energy exposure. The reason is that 12-month momentum turned positive on Oil, and going forward signals will remain solidly positive.” And since vol-control funds are some of the dumbest money around and their actions can be anticipated well in advance, JPM notes that “a further decline in volatility will likely result in larger and more stable cross-asset quant allocations. A larger momentum impact may affect Energy equities, which is the only sector that still has a strongly negative momentum signal and is hence heavily shorted in the context of factor investing.” That, JPMorgan believes, will “change in mid-March, when the momentum signal for energy equities turns  positive” which may be a hint to the redditors out there: if you want to squeeze the systematic shorts, do it where it hurts and buy some energy stocks to crush the CTAs. You have about a month to do so because JPM’s model momentum factor “will need to rebalance in March by closing ~20% of its allocation to Energy equity shorts, and adding ~2% to energy longs, for a ~22% net buying in Energy.”

    What is the quantitative significance of these flows? Kolanovic calculates that if one roughly assumes that there is about ~$1Tr in equity long-short quant funds and that half of these funds are not sector neutralized, “the flows could be quite significant, roughly $20-$30bn.” As shown in the chart below, the ratio of energy shares shorted vs all other S&P 500 shares shorted, closely followed the commodity supercycle. Remarkably, most recently the number of shares shorted for energy was 4 times the S&P 500 average (note that given the decline of the sector’s weight, energy share prices declined, and the effective $ amount shorted was only 2 times larger). In other words, one doesn’t even need to squeeze the shorts: come March – absent some major new crisis – as a result of broader market technicals the prevailing shorts will close them out on their own and go long.

    Another “flow factor” behind the “supercycle” is rotation by discretionary funds and retail: In the period from 2010 to 2015, the Energy sector had a 10.6% allocation in conventional equity portfolios. Since then, this has declined to a 3.1% weight currently (Figure 4). The largest decline was in active allocations, which declined from 7% to 1.5% (while passive allocations decreased from 3.6% to 1.8%), which is understandable – investors dumped “dead stocks” to chase growth and momentum, but the tide is now turning, and “any retracement of this decline, on a US equity fund asset base of ~$14T would result in significant inflows and re-pricing.” According to Kolanovic, as economies reopen, inflation moves higher, and yield curves steepen, active funds are expected to first close cyclical shorts, and then rotate from long secular growth towards value and cyclicals. His next point is critical: given that equity assets significantly increased over the last 10 years, and the energy sector significantly decreased, even a small rotation could produce an outsized move.

    Finally, retail investors also reduced energy equity allocation from 4.4% to only 0.6% currently. However, as the quant notes, “given the increased retail activity and interest in stocks that are volatile, have high short interest, are smaller in size and have thematic news/social media coverage, the sector will likely also be of interest to retail investors.”

    By which he means that we may soon have hedge funds, pardon, reddit mods and WSB participants drafting long posts discussing the relative merits of energy as the next sector to go long, and creating a critical mass of buyers which then cascades across the ranks of market participants, from ultra-fast HFTs, to fast momentum and trend-followers, to slow ETFs and eventually ultra slow pension fund money rushing to buy energy stocks and oil.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 19:45

  • MasterCard Joins Visa, PayPal On The Crypto Payments Bandwagon
    MasterCard Joins Visa, PayPal On The Crypto Payments Bandwagon

    Less than two weeks after Visa CEO Al Kelly said the payments giant is in a position to make cryptocurrencies more “safe, useful and applicable” and may add them to the company’s payments network; MasterCard has tonight laid out in great detail why it also plans to start supporting select cryptocurrencies directly on its network.

    In a detailed and lengthy statement, Raj Dhamodharan, MasterCard’s EVP of Digital Asset & Blockchain Partnerships, adds color to CEO Michael Miebach’s Q4 pledge to integrate digital currency payments “directly on our network.”

    The company has not yet disclosed which digital currencies it intends to support, or where.

    As CoinDesk notes, previously, Mastercard supported limited cryptocurrency transactions through its cryptocard partners Wirex and Uphold. But those programs only cover payment, not settlement; the coins are converted to fiat currency well before reaching the merchant.

    Full note:

    Why Mastercard is bringing crypto onto its network

    Whatever your opinions on cryptocurrencies – from a dyed-in-wool fanatic to utter skeptic – the fact remains that these digital assets are becoming a more important part of the payments world.

    We are seeing this fact play out on the Mastercard network, with people using cards to buy crypto assets, especially during Bitcoin’s recent surge in value. We are also seeing users increasingly take advantage of crypto cards to access these assets and convert them to traditional currencies for spending.

    To be clear, this data is not of any individuals – it’s anonymized and in aggregate – but the trend is unmistakable.

    We are preparing right now for the future of crypto and payments, announcing that this year Mastercard will start supporting select cryptocurrencies directly on our network. This is a big change that will require a lot of work. We will be very thoughtful about which assets we support based on our principles for digital currencies, which focus on consumer protections and compliance.

    Our philosophy on cryptocurrencies is straightforward: It’s about choice. Mastercard isn’t here to recommend you start using cryptocurrencies. But we are here to enable customers, merchants and businesses to move digital value

    Doing this work will create a lot more possibilities for shoppers and merchants, allowing them to transact in an entirely new form of payment. This change may open merchants up to new customers who are already flocking to digital assets and helping sellers build loyalty with existing customers who want this additional option. And customers will be able to save, store and send money in new ways.

    We want to help these concepts flourish and reach their potential, while also developing and encouraging the necessary guardrails.

    “We are here to enable customers, merchants and businesses to move digital value — traditional or crypto — however they want. It should be your choice, it’s your money.”

    To be completely clear, not all of today’s cryptocurrencies will be supported on our network. While stablecoins are more regulated and reliable than in the recent past, many of the hundreds of digital assets in circulation still need to tighten their compliance measures, so they won’t meet our requirements. We expect consumers and the ecosystem as a whole will start to rally around the crypto assets that offer reliability and security. It’s those very same stablecoins that we expect to bring into our network.

    What are we looking for? Four key items.

    • First and foremost we need consumer protections, including privacy and security of consumers’ information — the same level of security people have come to expect in their credit cards.

    • Next, strict compliance protocols will be needed, including Know Your Customer, a requirement meant to snuff out illegal activity and deception in  payment networks.

    • Also, these digital assets must follow local laws and regulations in the regions they are used.

    • Lastly, people will want to use these digital assets for payments, so that is one of our criteria too. To reach our network, crypto assets will need to offer the stability people need in a vehicle for spending, not investment.

    We are already working hard to provide this consumer choice for cryptocurrencies. We teamed up with Wirex and BitPay last year to create crypto cards that allow people to transact using their cryptocurrencies. We added to those partnerships this year by joining forces with LVL, an up-and-coming cryptocurrency exchange. These relationships — with many more planned in the pipeline — build on our many years of crypto collaborations.

    In all of these cases, cryptocurrencies still don’t move through our network. Our crypto partners convert the digital assets on their end to traditional currencies, then transmit them through to the Mastercard network. Our change to supporting digital assets directly will allow many more merchants to accept crypto — an ability that’s currently limited by proprietary methods unique to each digital asset. This change will also cut out inefficiencies, letting both consumers and merchants avoid having to convert back and forth between crypto and traditional to make purchases.

    Added to this work, Mastercard is actively engaging with several major central banks around the world, as they review plans to launch new digital currencies, dubbed CBDCs, to offer their citizens a new way to pay. Last year, we created a test platform for these banks to use these currencies in a simulated environment. Using our deep experience in payments technologies, we look forward to continuing these partnerships with governments and helping them explore the best ways to develop these new currencies.

    With 89 blockchain patents granted globally with an additional 285 blockchain applications pending worldwide, we already have one of the payments industry’s biggest blockchain patent portfolios to draw from to make these projects successful.

    We are inspired by so much of the work going on in the payments world – in banking, in emergent fintechs, in crypto – to push forward change. And we are doing as much as we can to set the stage for these players to take the next step forward.

    As CoinDesk notes, the payments space is rushing to support blockchain-based currencies at a pace not seen since Bitcoin pioneered the concept of stateless, peer-to-peer immutable transactions in 2009.

    For now there has been no reaction in Bitcoin…

    Source: Bloomberg

    We do find it quite ironic that in the same week as Tesla announces a major investment, MicroStrategy presents their bitcoin-funded-reserves concept to thousands of firms, and now Visa and Mastercard show support, Tim Lane, the deputy governor of The Bank of Canada, proclaimed costly verification methods and unstable purchasing power makes cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin a “flawed” method of payment.

    In a speech on “payments innovation,” Lane desperately attempted to pour cold water on the decentralized system of payments would entirely disrupt his industry, exclaiming further that, “the recent spike in their prices looks less like a trend and more like a speculative mania – an atmosphere in which one high-profile tweet is enough to trigger a sudden jump in price.”

    He doth protest too much we think.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 19:25

  • 14 State Attorneys Say Keystone Cancellation Delivers "Crippling Economic Injuries", Threaten Legal Action
    14 State Attorneys Say Keystone Cancellation Delivers “Crippling Economic Injuries”, Threaten Legal Action

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

    Fourteen Republican attorneys general are urging President Joe Biden to reconsider his decision to cancel a permit for the construction of the Keystone XL crude oil pipeline, alleging severe economic harm and threatening to take legal action.

    “We write with alarm regarding your unilateral and rushed decision to revoke the 2019 Presidential Permit” for the pipeline, the officials wrote in a Feb. 9 letter (pdf), initiated by Montana’s Attorney General Austin Knudsen.

    Calling cancellation of the pipeline a decision “to impose crippling economic injuries on states, communities, families, and workers across the country,” the attorneys general urged Biden to reconsider, while warning that they are “reviewing available legal options.”

    In the letter, Knudsen denounced Biden’s decision to pull the permit as “a symbolic act of virtue signaling” that would do little to accomplish its stated objective of protecting Americans and the domestic economy from harmful climate impacts.

    “The real-world costs are devastating,” Knudsen contended. “Nationally, your decision will eliminate thousands of well-paying jobs, many of them union jobs.”

    Keystone XL pipeline facilities are seen in Hardisty, Alta., in a file photo. The now-canceled pipeline would have carried oilsands crude from Hardisty to the U.S. Gulf Coast. (The Canadian Press/Jeff McIntosh)

    The State Department determined in 2014 (pdf) that the Keystone XL pipeline project would support a total of 42,100 jobs and create roughly 3,900 direct jobs in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas over what was expected to be one or two years of construction.

    After the pipeline entered service, operations would require around 50 employees in the United States, including 35 permanent employees and 15 temporary contractors, the State Department found.

    While construction of Keystone XL would contribute roughly $3.4 billion to U.S. gross domestic product, according to a National Regulatory Research Institute review of State Department estimates (pdf), the pipeline would also offer tax revenues for local and state governments. Property taxes resulting from the project would generate roughly $55.6 million in Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska.

    Knudsen argued that axing the pipeline would deprive counties and states of future tax revenue.

    “Montana will lose the benefits of future easements and leases, and several local counties will lose their single-biggest property taxpayer. The loss of Keystone XL’s economic activity and tax revenues are especially devastating as five of the six impacted counties are designated high-poverty areas,” Knudsen wrote.

    In canceling the permit, Biden said the pipeline would do little to benefit the country’s energy security and economy, while approving it would undermine the administration’s efforts to combat climate change.

    “In 2015, following an exhaustive review, the Department of State and the President determined that approving the proposed Keystone XL pipeline would not serve the U.S. national interest,” Biden wrote in his Jan. 20 executive order.

    “That analysis, in addition to concluding that the significance of the proposed pipeline for our energy security and economy is limited, stressed that the United States must prioritize the development of a clean energy economy, which will in turn create good jobs,” he wrote.

    “The analysis further concluded that approval of the proposed pipeline would undermine U.S. climate leadership by undercutting the credibility and influence of the United States in urging other countries to take ambitious climate action,” he wrote, adding that, “The world must be put on a sustainable climate pathway to protect Americans and the domestic economy from harmful climate impacts.”

    Knudsen contended in the letter that Biden did not explain “how killing the Keystone XL pipeline project directly advances the goals of ‘protect[ing] Americans and the domestic economy from harmful climate impacts,’” nor does his decision “actually cure any of the climate ills” that the president referenced.

    “Observers are thus left with only one reasonable supposition: it is a symbolic act of virtue signaling to special interests and the international community,” he wrote.

    The Keystone XL pipeline was first proposed in 2008 but reached a snag under the Obama administration. Former President Donald Trump revived the project and was a strong proponent.

    Cancellation of the Keystone construction permit has also drawn heavy fire from industry groups and Republican lawmakers.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 19:05

  • Manhattan Luxury Real Estate Market Records Best Week Since 2019
    Manhattan Luxury Real Estate Market Records Best Week Since 2019

    Manhattan’s high-end real estate market recorded an unseasonably strong performance last week (Feb. 1-7), with the largest amount of contracts for properties asking plus $4 million since November 2019, according to Mansion Global

    The latest market report from Olshan Realty shows 30 luxury home contracts were signed last week. Twenty-one of those were condo units, four were co-ops, and five were townhomes.

    A surge in buying interest comes as developers and sellers have slashed luxury property prices following the virus pandemic. Even before the pandemic, around half of all new condo units built after 2015 were unsold. A lot of inventory still sits on the sidelines. 

    However, Donna Olshan, who tracks luxury sales, said last week’s report is “very optimistic because really what it’s showing is the consumer is out there and aggressively looking at New York as a place to buy and live.” 

    In the last two weeks, 57 contracts were signed, 48 of which were apartments. Of those, half were sold by developers. The totals in the previous two weeks “continued a trend that started after the November election—a cocktail stirred with ingredients ranging from the Covid-19 vaccine to low interest rates, a robust stock market and meaningful discounts,” Olshan continued. 

    Last week, the total weekly transaction volume for luxury Manhattan homes was around $244 million. 

    The priciest condo to find a buyer last week were the 10th and 11th floors at 1045 Madison Avenue on the Upper East Side, which sold for $27.95 million. The buyer plans to combine both floors into one unit with 8,386-square-foot duplex apartments.

    The second priciest condo sold last week was at One57, a 75-story building located on Billionaires’ Row, for $19.9 million, reduced from $25.2 million.

    Buyers remain in control of the market. Average asking prices for luxury properties fell 10% last week to the final price. Many of the homes took an astonishing 743 days to sell.

    The surge in buying interest among luxury properties in Manhattan is only among the ultra-rich who can obtain cheap loans, unlike average folks who are still having trouble finding mortgages as bank lending standards remain tight. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 02/10/2021 – 18:45

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