Jan 11

Today’s News 11th January 2021

  • The 'Woke' Purge Has Begun
    The ‘Woke’ Purge Has Begun

    Authored by Brendan O’Neill via Spiked-Online.com,

    Twitter’s suspension of Donald Trump is a chilling sign of tyranny to come…

    Cancel culture doesn’t exist, they say. And yet with the flick of a switch, billionaire capitalists voted for by precisely nobody have just silenced a man who is still the democratically elected president of the United States. With the push of a button in their vast temples to technology, the new capitalist oligarchs of Silicon Valley have prevented a man who won the second largest vote in the history of the American republic just two months ago — 74million votes — from engaging with his supporters (and critics) in the new public square of the internet age.

    Not only does cancel culture exist — it is the means through which the powerful, unaccountable oligarchies of the internet era and their clueless cheerleaders in the liberal elites interfere in the democratic process and purge voices they disapprove of. That’s what Twitter’s permanent suspension of Donald Trump confirms.

    The new capitalists’ cancellation of the democratically elected president of the United States is a very significant turning point in the politics and culture of the Western world. We underestimate the significance of this act of unilateral purging at our peril. It demonstrates that the greatest threat to freedom and democracy comes not from the oafs and hard-right clowns who stormed the Capitol this week, but from the technocratic elites who spy in the breaching of the Capitol an opportunity to consolidate their cultural power and their political dominance.

    Twitter’s ban on Trump is extraordinary for many reasons. First, there’s the arrogance of it. Make no mistake: this is the bosses vs democracy; corporates vs the people; exceptionally wealthy and aloof elites determining which elected politicians may engage in online discussion, which is where most political and public debate takes place in the 21st century. Those who cannot see how concerning and sinister it is that a handful of Big Tech companies have secured a virtual monopoly over the social side of the internet, and are now exploiting their monopolistic power to dictate what political opinions it is acceptable to hold and express in these forums, urgently needs a wake-up call.

    Secondly, there is Twitter’s deeply disturbing justification for why it suspended Trump. It says Trump’s account ran the ‘risk’ of ‘inciting violence’. And yet the two tweets of his that it cites do nothing of the sort. In one, Trump describes his voters as ‘great American patriots’ and insists they will have a ‘GIANT VOICE’ in the future. In the other he confirms that he will not be attending the inauguration of Joe Biden. That’s it. In what warped moral universe can such standard, boastful Trump-made statements be interpreted as calls for violence?

    In the warped moral universe of pre-emptive, precautionary censorship being built by our tech overlords, that’s where. Strikingly, Twitter says its censorship of the president is based on how other people might read and interpret his words. It says its censorious motivation is ‘specifically’ the question of ‘how [Trump’s tweets] are being received and interpreted on and off Twitter’. Trump’s comments ‘must be read’ in the broader context of how certain statements ‘can be mobilised by different audiences’, Twitter decrees. So Trump’s words, strictly speaking, are not the problem; it’s the possibility, the risk, that someone, somewhere might interpret them in a particular way.

    This sets a terrifying precedent for the internet age. It legitimises a new regime of online censorship which doesn’t only punish inflammatory speech — which would be bad enough — but which punishes normal, legitimate political speech on the grounds of how other, unnamed people or groups might respond to it.

    There would be no end to what could be censored. 

    Trans-sceptical feminists, already victims of Silicon Valley’s woke purges, would be completely wiped out on the basis that some idiot might interpret their intellectual, non-bigoted critiques of genderfluidity as an instruction to bash a trans person. Christians sceptical of gay marriage, pro-life campaigners furious about abortion, radical leftists who say ‘smash the system’ — all could potentially fall foul of this new diktat that says we are not only responsible for what we ourselves think and say, but also for the myriad interpretations that everyone else, from the man in the street to the weirdo incel, makes of what we think and say.

    On this basis the White Album should be banned, given its songs ‘Helter Skelter’ and ‘Piggies’ were ‘mobilised by different audiences’ to terrible ends — the killings carried out by Charles Manson’s Family. Catcher in the Rye? Censor it. Don’t you remember how it ‘mobilised’ Mark David Chapman to kill John Lennon? As for the Bible, the Koran and any number of political texts and anthems — the risks of ‘mobilisation’ that they pose are clearly too great, so, to be on the safe side, let’s scrub those too.

    It isn’t just Twitter. Mark Zuckerberg (zero votes) had already indefinitely suspended Trump (74million votes) from Facebook. Reddit has scrubbed its Donald Trump thread. All social-media accounts that promote the mad Qanon conspiracy theory are being suspended. Mike Flynn and Sidney Powell have been banished from Twitter. YouTube is now banning any video and account that says the American election was fraudulent. This shows how ideological Silicon Valley oligarchs have become. For four years leading members of the media and cultural elites in the US and the UK have said the American presidential election and the EU referendum of 2016 were frauds. That they were meddled with, illegitimate, should be overthrown. You’ll find tens of thousands of videos on YouTube featuring people saying the vote for Brexit was a fit-up by Ruskies or an ‘advisory’ vote fraudulently turned into an instructional one. They won’t be taken down. Because our tech overlords are engaged in acts of openly political censorship.

    And then there’s Parler, the libertarian alternative to Twitter. Google this week removed the Parler app from its store on the basis that it doesn’t control its users’ inflammatory speech strictly enough. Apple is threatening to do likewise. All those who said ‘Just make your own social-media platform’ clearly underestimated the tyrannical determination of the woke elites to erase ‘offensive speech’ from every quarter of the internet. This is a full-on purge of any voice that significantly runs counter to the worldview of the anti-populist elites.

    That the left is cheering this on is cretinism of the most remarkable kind. They are green-lighting the most thorough assault on freedom of speech that the capitalist elites have ever carried out. They are sanctioning the control of speech by billionaires. They are celebrating as corporate oligarchies interfere directly in the democratic process. They are making a fetish of private property rights, insisting that the corporate rights of virtual monopolies like Twitter and Facebook, in this case their right to throw people off their platforms, override the social, democratic good of free public debate.

    I know this is unlikely anytime soon — given the entirely bullshit and pseudo ‘leftish’ posturing of the Silicon Valley elites — but imagine if at some point in the future the tech overlords decide that Bernie Sanders or some rabble-rousing organiser of protests outside Google’s HQ might ‘mobilise audiences’ to do something bad and decide to ban them? What will the left say? Nothing, presumably. Or nothing that should be taken seriously, given they will have helped to create this web of tyranny. They have forgotten the cry of the true radical Thomas Paine: ‘He that would make his own liberty secure must guard even his enemy from oppression; for if he violates this duty he establishes a precedent that will reach to himself.’

    There is danger in the current moment. It comes not from horn-helmeted idiots and racist scumbags who paraded through the Capitol Building for an hour, but from those who wish to turn that despicable incident into the founding myth of a new era of woke authoritarianism. The business and political elites, determined to crush the populist experiment of recent years, will busily launch wars on ‘domestic terrorism’, clamp down on inflammatory speech, purge from the internet and from workplaces anyone with ‘incorrect’ thoughts, and blacklist those who believe populism is preferable to technocracy. They’re already doing it. The Biden administration isn’t even in power yet and this is already happening. Imagine how emboldened the new oligarchies and their woke mobs will become once Biden and Co are ruling. Brace yourselves; the purge is only beginning.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/11/2021 – 00:10

  • The CIA Rebranded: Don't Worry, We're Woke Now!
    The CIA Rebranded: Don’t Worry, We’re Woke Now!

    The CIA unveiled a trendy new logo this week and it’s already being mercilessly mocked. As one graphic design commentary website put it:

    The CIA’s new rebrand includes a refreshed logo (below) which retains its predecessor’s circular shape – and very little else. With its bold, black-and-white typeface and wavy lines, the internet is wondering whether the CIA has been taking logo design inspiration from techno music posters. 

    And of course this is all supposedly in the name of “diversity” and appeasing the cult of the woke.

    The new logo can be found on the CIA’s new recruitment website which is part of a broader initiative to create a more culturally diverse and sensitive intelligence agency that includes “people of all backgrounds and walks of life”.

    The Associated Press writes of the new rebranding and culture shift within the agency: “while the CIA has been diversifying for years, intelligence agencies still lag behind the federal workforce in minority representation.”

    CIA’s verified Twitter account has also been busy virtue signaling its new “diverse faces” as part of the initiative:

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    “We’re woke now!” journalist Rania Khalek begins in a spoof video covering the major rebrand.

    “Don’t worry, we’ll still be overthrowing democratically-elected socialist governments and putting despots in power.”

    “But we’re moving with the times here at Langley and we don’t want the white patriarchy giving orders…. We want trans torturers… It doesn’t matter if you’re from a minority, as long as you have no moral code.” 

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    The rebrand is further being widely laughed at on Twitter and other social media…

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    We highly doubt that any of this has foreign enemies or terrorists at all worried.

    Instead, it’s likely they’re laughing right alongside the internet, and all too glad the CIA appears to be this preoccupied with projecting with its ‘diverse’ image instead of focusing on gathering actual intelligence and engaging in national security matters. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 23:45

  • Silent But Deadly: Marines See Biggest Deployment Of Rifle Suppressors Ever
    Silent But Deadly: Marines See Biggest Deployment Of Rifle Suppressors Ever

    The U.S. Marine Corps is fielding tens of thousands of suppressors designed for automatic rifles as a move to reduce noise signature on the modern battlefield, according to Military.com. 

    Marine Corps Systems Command (MCSC) is in the process of fielding the first of the suppressors designed for M4 and M4A1 carbines and M27 infantry automatic rifles to Marines stationed at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina. By 2023, the service expects as many as 30,000 suppressors will be fielded, which is the largest deployment of suppressors by any military. 

    “We’ve never fielded suppressors at this scale,” Maj. Mike Brisker, weapons product manager in MCSC’s Program Manager for Infantry Weapons, said in a recent press release. “This fielding is a big moment for the Marine Corps.”

    Suppressors on automatic rifles firing a 5.56mm round will reduce noise by 30-40 decibels. This means each shot will sound more like a 22 caliber. 

    Reducing noise adds stealth to Marines, making it harder for the enemy to locate them. 

    Suppressors help decrease their “audible and visual signature, making it more difficult for the enemy to ascertain their location,” Chief Warrant Officer 4 David Tomlinson, MCSC’s infantry weapons officer, said in the release. 

    Besides reducing sound, suppressors also eliminate muzzle flash, which adds to the stealthiness of Marines. 

    Another big reason for the adoption is that it makes it easier for Marines to communicate with each other in combat. 

    “I would say the most important thing the suppressor does is allow for better inter-squad, inter-platoon communication,” Tomlinson said in the release. “It allows the operators to communicate laterally up and down the line during a firefight.”

    Marine officials also hope the suppressors will reduce hearing damage suffered by infantry Marines in combat. 

    Watch as Marines conduct a training exercise using suppressors. 

    To sum up: Washington continues to modernize forces as uncertainty and risk of military conflict continue to rise in the early 2020s. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 23:20

  • Whispers In The Wind
    Whispers In The Wind

    Authored By Kym Robinson via The Libertarian Institute, 

    As the fiasco of US democracy shreds at any sense of dignity the world watches on and pretends that the health of the American empire is vibrant, the opinionated social media activist and the interested expert all find outrage in the moment.  Biden and Trump drips from the chanting lips of those who are storming the halls of political might. Far in distant lands, inside the obedient nations of the American empire heads of state read out words of support and condemnation. Outraged citizens from abroad criticize the ousted president, or they cheer for him to troll from the platform of twitter. The social media giants had long ago shown their loyalties as they ban and limit elements of some perspectives of very much the same political monstrosity. But in the end, does it change anything?

    The outraged and protesting tug and pull for the reigns of rule. The mob that failed at the sort of works democracy now reveals itself as just that violent destructive blob of people who want more control, want more influence and want a government that does things for them often against others. Whether it is proud boys, ANTIFA, MAGA or BLM the government as it stands really does not change that much, perhaps ‘Amen’ is switched to ‘Awomen’ and pronouns are balanced with some sensitivity or maybe the jingoists get another minority group to blame for the decay of Western or American civilization. But in the end the empire is ever present abroad and at home.

    For the rest of the world, we are forced to watch the melodrama of US politics, again. As though the United States is the center of the world, or universe. Perhaps the world should care less about what happens inside the US with as much concern as the average American seems to care about the rest of the world.

    Millions of humans lead their lives despite the petty and often pathetic self importance of US partisan politics and yet somehow, the American empire finds them. Whether it is a drone hovering high above, visiting with random murder or a blockade of warships enforcing an almost ancient embargo, it is the American prevalence in all of our lives that seems to be destroying not only the US itself, but the wider world. And when a victor emerges, the world still gets war. Mostly American wars. These are not civil riots protests that waved a fist against state led bigotry, nor are they anti conscription riots over government forcing individuals to fight overseas in another war. Such past riots, have had limited impact in quelling the growth of government or in tempering its destructive might.

    Journalist Julian Assange is held captive in legal purgatory, punished for revealing the crimes of war mongers and lifting the up the skirt of many governments. Ross Ulbricht a prisoner because he created a website, the details of his conviction would  make for an unbelievable fiction and yet it was all too real. Edward Snowden and Chelsea Manning are pariah patriots, believers in the religious texts that most Americans claim to uphold and yet most of the voting public and voted for rulers disregard the details of such a constitution and Bill of Rights. And millions of poor and desperate foreigners live and die in the frontiers of foreign policy, their homes and day to day ruined so that macho sounding politicians can profit by propping up tyrannies of maniacal madness. Inside the prisons of the US itself are thousands of convicts punished for victimless crimes, the prohibitions and regulations of a cancerous government that claims to be for freedom, when in fact it dissolves it at every chance. The protests are not for any of them.

    A small child, perhaps now dead, coiled in infant agony, starved as its innocent eyes bulged in anguish fronted recent articles covering the desperate situation in Yemen. A situation that would be impossible if not for the aid and assistance of the US and it’s imperial allies. Neither Trump of Biden would save that baby and the many others like it. The Saudi kingdom, is a profitable friend. The protesters that support the two coins of US partisan politics do not care about the children of Yemen either. One needs not look too far to find the victims of foreign policy, recent and distant to see the true outcome of such actions, but it seems few actually care to. And should they be presented with such facts and terrible images, a religious fog washes across their eyes, allowing them to either dismiss or contextualize the murder and suffering. But a slob tweeting from the toilet or a hair sniffing buffoon are both credible enough to lead, and be despised because they are not the other.

    Protests inspired by Greta Thunberg visited many cities across the planet, sort of serious protesters found more energy than the Kony2012 social media inspired activists. They chanted and spread hashtags, cheered for the Swedish teen to shame political masters and then as often is the case, the energy dissipated. Nature continues to suffer, but a new smart phone in the hand is more appealing than living inside a canvas tent among the trees. The fixation with taxing the problem away and regulating industry to ‘not pollute’ is one of often curiosity, ignoring the waste of government itself. Not to mention the destructive pollutant that is the war machine. There once was a time when green movements were anti-government and anti-war. Now many of the supposedly green champions are inside the cathedral of government and so long as biodegradable material is used to transport the depleted uranium shells or a tree is planted on a base somewhere as gas guzzling tanks trample trees in distant lands, then the message is sound.

    It seems that since the emergence of COVID-19 that the Peoples Republic of China has become popular to despise. An authoritarian government that had bashed human rights since before its inception, a nation of growing power and influence, that with patience managed to take advantage of the laziness and complacency of modern Western culture. Many inside the West profited from and helped to cultivate the communist planners of China. But now supposedly courageous journalists and politicians criticize the communist state. Those who had their fingers inside the red cookie jar are ousted, the many honey traps are revealed but before COVID-19, few cared about the organ harvesting, mass executions, forced labor camps and surveillance state. It is hard to reveal those things as Chinese money flowed so lavishly.

    The future unfortunately is China’s, not because of the billions of unique individuals of China but the regime itself. The culture of control, social credits, censorship, travel restrictions and surveillance. The nationalism of compromise communism that has developed in the decades since the death of Mao. It is a template by which other national governments may adopt, not by any devious design, but inevitable instinct. The protesters, voters and mobs that throw their violent tantrums do not stand opposed to that, unlike those in Hong Kong who feel the crushing tyranny grip them.  In the US and its partner nations, the coming tyranny is inevitable. It is often welcomed and it is one of elite insight, for your health, for your safety. The custodian government is here for the child citizen, and jobs, welfare will be available. Is that not Utopian?

    Just as the war on terror normalized the security state, the war on drugs introduced no knock raids and intrusive searches, the war on the virus will bring with it the ever controlling health state. One that had already been creeping in. A health state of supposed benevolence for those nations of Public Health will continue to see grow, where an ideological health care system trumps choice and efficiency. Instead it gives careers and less care and a generic approach to solutions, that seldom suits the many individuals in need. Then the many regulations strangling society to ensure that the consumer, employer and employee are all directed and guided into one homogenized pattern. Choice, freedom, independence and individual responsibility are all deemed to be selfish. To be dependent, to have fewer or no choices and to be part of a collective is considerate, altruistic or even woke. For many of those protest, the public tantrum is about themes of the same controls, not ending them.

    Whatever Americans think about their nation, whether they burn or worship their flag. How little or much that they know about their national history, it is insignificant to the perspective of those in foreign lands who understand the USA for what it actions reveal it to be. A war empire. When the mostly slave owners penned those words on that famous cannabis sheet it is unlikely that the republic that they envisioned would some day become greater than the British empire. And when the French sold lands on the North American continent, that never really belonged to them, to the young republic or when the British burned the capital building after defeating the US invaders of Canada it is unlikely that they could imagine their future dependence and partial obedience to mighty US empire. For those who have been visited by US warplanes, tanks and ships the rhetoric of freedom and liberty are bloody lies. Just as they are for most Americans. But that is not being protested about.

    So now as social media waffles on over the calamity in the streets of US cities, will it change a thing? In a few months it would have been but one in many riots that have ravaged US streets. Riots that have claimed lives and destroyed property. None of which changed the perpetual nature of the US government, domestically or abroad. The outraged don’t really care about much other than the shrillness of the other side. The dead children in Yemen or Afghanistan, the burning lands of foreign wars don’t get that much concern, such scars and tears belongs to others. So when one side stands atop of the heaped mess as winner of the US government, the business of war will go on. The dignity of the individual will be bludgeoned and those who want nothing more but to control, to rule and to be taken care of, shall be victorious. But too few really cared enough to stop it. And those who do care, they are but whispers in the wind.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 22:55

  • Amid Soaring Food Prices, Vietnam And China Buy Indian Rice For First Time In Decades
    Amid Soaring Food Prices, Vietnam And China Buy Indian Rice For First Time In Decades

    One month ago, we reported that SocGen’s bearish analyst Albert Edwards, who is traditionally well ahead of the curve, looked at charts of soaring food prices and was starting to “panic.”

    Edwards’ research report concluded by urging his readers to “keep a very close eye as to whether we see a repeat of the 2010/11 surge in food prices” because “on the 10th anniversary of the start of the Arab Spring, and with poverty having already been made much worse by the pandemic, another food price bubble could well be the straw to break the very angry camel’s back.”

    And while it’s not quite the spring of 2011 just yet (give it a few months) it’s getting dangerously close.

    As Rithesh Jain from the World out of Whack blog writes, citing an article in the Reuters, “Vietnam, the world’s third biggest exporter of rice, has started buying the grain from rival India for the first time in decades after local prices jumped to their highest in nine years amid limited domestic supplies.”

    “For the first time we are exporting to Vietnam,” B.V. Krishna Rao, president of the Rice Exporters Association, told Reuters on Monday. “Indian prices are very attractive. The huge price difference is making exports possible.”

    Dwindling supplies and continued Philippine buying have lifted Vietnamese rice export prices to a fresh nine-year high.

    Vietnam’s 5% broken rice is offered around $500-$505 per tonne, significantly higher compared to Indian prices of $381-$387.

    This means that, as we have been warning for the past few months, food inflation is indeed back with a vengeance:

    The purchases underscore tightening supplies in Asia, which could lift rice prices in 2021 and even force traditional buyers of rice from Thailand and Vietnam to switch to India – the world’s biggest exporter of the grain.

    Indian farmers and exporter are big beneficiary.

    In December, the world’s biggest rice importer China started buying Indian rice for the first time in at least three decades due to tightening supplies from Thailand, Myanmar and Vietnam and an offer of sharply discounted prices.

    What happens next? Nothing good:

    Chronic and acute hunger is on the rise, impacting vulnerable households in almost every country, with the COVID-19 pandemic reducing incomes and disrupting supply chains, according to the World Bank.

    As Jain concludes, “food inflation is here and unlike base metals, agricultural items can be substituted leading to rise in the entire agri basket.” The following charts from Goldman show just how close we are to a rerun of the global “Arab spring” we are again.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 22:30

  • Legal Wrangle Continues Over Possible Release Of Orange County Prisoners
    Legal Wrangle Continues Over Possible Release Of Orange County Prisoners

    Authored by Drew Van Voorhis via The Epoch Times,

    The fate of about 1,800 Orange County inmates remains unclear as legal proceedings continue into whether the prisoners should be released amidst an ongoing pandemic.

    During a Jan. 8 court hearing, the Orange County Sheriff’s Department (OCSD) answered questions regarding its plans to reduce a CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus outbreak among its prison populations. The hearing ultimately resulted in the court ordering future hearings to obtain more information.

    The case began last year, when Sheriff Don Barnes received a Dec. 11 court order requiring county jails to reduce populations by 50 percent. It was a move Barnes has warned could result in large consequences for the community.

    Barnes appealed the court order, but was denied Dec. 29. He filed another appeal, which led to the Jan. 8 hearing, overseen by Superior Court Judge Peter J. Wilson.

    County attorneys Kayla Watson and Kevin Dunn, as well as American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) lawyer Corene Kendrick, were in attendance. Barnes was not.

    During the hearing, Wilson asked county attorneys a list of pre-written questions about the precautions the department has taken to reduce the outbreak. Inquires related to jail inspections, available prison footage, and more.

    OCSD spokesman Sgt. Dennis Brecker told The Epoch Times via email that the jail’s COVID-19 numbers reduced by hundreds of cases Jan. 8 due to a backlog of tests being processed.

    “Our [positive case] numbers in the jail just went down by the hundreds, now at 465 [cases],” Breckner said. Just the day before, the department was reporting 1,062 cases.

    He continued, “The website is up to date and the explanation for the drastic decrease was simply that the number of tests being administered created a backlog for [Orange County Health Care Agency] and they are now catching up.  We anticipate the number continuing on a downward trend because of the mitigation efforts that we have put in place.”

    During the hearing, Kendrick offered to bring in a person the ACLU has worked with before as a court-appointed expert to go through the 34 boxes of inmate files the sheriff’s department transferred to Wilson to review on who to safely release, based on individual inmates’ records.

    Watson noted large disagreement with this.

    “I just want the record to be clear that we, on behalf of the sheriff’s department, strongly object to the appointment of any expert to perform the sheriff’s statutory duties,” Watson said.

    “We have not been given an opportunity to present current evidence on the ground, despite our repeated requests.”

    The court adjourned with the next court hearing being held January 19, where there will likely be more experts to testify.

    Barnes issued a statement on the Jan. 8 hearing.

    “The court is holding additional hearings to obtain information from experts regarding the conditions of the jail,” he said.

    “We will continue to highlight our efforts to mitigate COVID-19 in our jails and keep dangerous inmates out of the community,” he noted.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 22:05

  • 6000 National Guard Troops Arrive In DC To Beef Up Security
    6000 National Guard Troops Arrive In DC To Beef Up Security

    Around 6,000 National Guard troops have been activated from multiple states. They are expected to arrive in the Washington Metropolitan Area within the next 48 hours to beef up security around the US Capitol complex, according to AP. 

    Update: They have started to arrive…

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    Deployment of Guard troops come in the wake of deadly riots at the Capitol building on Wednesday and ahead of the Presidential Inauguration on Jan. 20 that could incite another wave of violence. 

    AP has learned defense officials are reviewing restrictions on whether Guard troops will be allowed to carry weapons in the coming days as new threats materialize. 

    Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy told AP Friday that intelligence on potential threats continues to evolve. He said some Guard troops could carry M4 Carbines, but a final decision may come next week. 

    The review reflects concerns about the safety of Guard troops in the wake of the deadly riots. 

    “We’ll be looking at the intelligence and decide over the next day or so,” McCarthy said. “It’s just going to require us to get better intel, and then we’ll have to take a risk assessment.”

    This past week, Guard troops have been unarmed and will continue to be once a decision is made. So far, they’ve been tasked with guarding the Capitol building behind steel walls that limit them from directly contacting violent protesters. 

    About 850 Guard troops have been deployed to Capital grounds, working 12 hours shifts at more than 90 checkpoints. 

    Over the weekend, videos have emerged of Guard troops stationed around the Capitol complex.

    Guard troop presence increasing in DC. 

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    Guard troops patrolling perimeter fence around Capitol. 

    Guard troops patrolling buildings around the Capitol. 

    AFP shows several scenes of Guard troops outside the perimeter fence of the Capitol. 

    Considering top militia leaders have said they have placed “armed” members around DC to prevent a steal of the 2020 presidential election from President Trump – it’s likely some Guard troops will be armed as perhaps the last of the violence isn’t over. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 21:40

  • FAA Slams Pro-Trump Demonstrators For "Disrupting" Flights Ahead Of Capitol Chaos
    FAA Slams Pro-Trump Demonstrators For “Disrupting” Flights Ahead Of Capitol Chaos

    A few days ago, a union of flight attendants called on US airlines to permanently ban all participants in the Capitol Hill riot from flying amid reports that planes full of Trump supporters traveling to Washington DC caused disturbances during flights. Now, as prosecutors across the country hunt down the participants of Wednesday’s Capitol riot, the FAA and its members are taking disciplinary matters into their own hands.

    According to Bloomberg, the FAA is vowing “strong enforcement” of any further violations tied to supporters of President Trump. In other words, if you wear a red baseball cap on a plane, well, you might as well yell “bomb!”…

    FAA Chief Steven Dickson issued a statement Saturday saying the agency will take any further “unruly” actions by passengers extremely seriously.

    “The FAA will pursue strong enforcement action against anyone who endangers the safety of a flight, with penalties ranging from monetary fines to jail time,” said Dickson, himself a former airline pilot.

    Passengers on aircraft must obey safety commands from flight attendants and pilots, and the FAA monitors reports of violations, Dickson said. “This includes unruly passenger behavior, which can distract, disrupt and threaten crew members’ ability to conduct their key safety functions,” he said.

    Numerous other incidents on flights were reported on social media as travelers visited Washington and flew home after Wednesday’s events. Flight attendant unions have also issued press releases condemning the behavior.

    Flight attendants with American Airlines were forced to confront passengers who were harassing others for their political views on one particularly difficult flight, according to Julie Hedrick, president of the Association of Professional Flight Attendants.

    “This behavior is unacceptable, and flight attendants should not have to deal with these egregious incidents,” Hedrick said in a press release.

    So, what’s the solution? Will Republicans no longer be allowed to travel to rallies and other events?

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 21:15

  • Washington Chaos May Raise Tail Risks For Beijing
    Washington Chaos May Raise Tail Risks For Beijing

    By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator

    Three things we learned last week:

    1. Trump is keeping the pressure on China amid Washington turmoil.

    Secretary of State Michael Pompeo provoked Beijing when he said that the U.S. will remove decades-old restrictions on how its diplomats approach Taiwan. The move raises tensions over the One China policy — a red line for Chinese leaders.

    It suggests that the Trump administration isn’t done taking on China, even as the president is besieged following a violent insurrection by his supporters at the Capitol. Lawmakers are pushing for him to be impeached, and a number of administration officials have resigned. Further hostility toward Beijing in his final days in office could set up more hurdles for Joe Biden to deal with China.

    While Alibaba and Tencent were left off an updated U.S. Treasury list of Chinese companies considered to be tied to the military, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the tech giants are off the hook. And more state companies, including oil firms, could be added to the list and kicked off of the U.S. exchanges. The risk of sanctioning a major Chinese bank also remains.

    2. Foreign investors cannot get enough Chinese stocks.

    Overseas investors bought a record net 21 billion yuan worth ($3.2 billion) of Chinese shares through the north-bound stock connection last week, as the CSI 300 hit a 13-year high. South-bound flows from mainland investors to Hong Kong also reached a record. China Mobile, which is excluded from major indexes and due to be delisted by the NYSE on Monday, was the most bought stock in the southbound program Friday. It looks like there are plenty of Chinese happy to take advantage of the forced selling from U.S. investors.

    3. Reflation trades are all rage.

    MSCI’s global stock benchmark notched records as the Democratic sweep of Congress increases the odds for another round of stimulus in the U.S. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields climbed above 1.1% and narrowed a gap with Chinese bonds. That didn’t kept the yuan from rallying further, prompting Chinese policy makers to take more steps to slow inflows.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 20:42

  • Thwarting The Next Attack On The Capitol
    Thwarting The Next Attack On The Capitol

    Authored by Robert Wright via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    Thirty shots rang out in the U.S. Capitol around 2:30 pm. Bullets struck five House Reps, all of whom survived, thanks in part to the valiant response of House Pages.

    If that sounds different from news accounts of the events of 6 January 2021, it is because the event briefly described above occurred on 1 March 1954, when four Puerto Rican nationalists fired the shots from the visitors’ gallery while unfurling the Puerto Rican flag. The assailants were all eventually apprehended, tried, and convicted and were serving long prison sentences commuted by President Jimmy Carter in 1978 and 1979. 

    The three men and one woman who gave half their lives were heroes to Puerto Rican nationalists and anti-imperialists but vile, failed assassins to those who wanted to maintain U.S. hegemony over the island it had taken from the Spanish Empire in 1898. Importantly, most of those who had given little thought to Puerto Rico’s status and likely could not find the island on a map also deprecated the attack because of the level of violence unleashed.

    Of course the people who some Americans still proudly call Patriots were nothing more than nationalist rebels to the Tories. Had the Patriots lost the Revolutionary War, they would have at best suffered the same fate as the Confederate Johnny Reb. George Washington would be remembered today as a scoundrel and an enslaver and his sidekick Alexander Hamilton would have never spawned a hit musical. (Recent rumors of Hamilton’s slaveholding, incidentally, remain empirically baseless.) 

    Today, obviously, matters are no different. If you think you will gain from the actions that some group takes, you will tend to rationalize its tactics and call its members good names. If you think the group’s actions will hurt you, then you will tend to oppose it and its tactics and call its members bad names. 

    “Praise and blame” historians call it. One partisan’s hero is another partisan’s zero.

    That is why it is so important for true supporters of “law and order” like myself to identify and reduce the causes of political violence before it becomes too late. In mid-March, I predicted rebellions if lockdowns continued for too long and many mass demonstrations, some quite violent, occurred throughout 2020 in many nations including, of course, our own. I also warned in December that trouble would ensue if the Supreme Court refused to hear the Texas election lawsuit … and here we are. If only the Capitol police had heeded my warnings they could have taken more effective precautions.

    It isn’t terribly difficult, actually, to see trouble brewing. All it takes is a little theory and some empathy. Theory, like one laid out by Eric Hoffer, suggests that frustration breeds violent protest. Frustration isn’t measurable precisely but if you listen to what people — real people not TV pundits — say, and think about how you would feel in a similar situation, you can start to get a sense for genuine frustration.

    Many Patriots, for example, felt that British policymakers were unresponsive to their concerns about how Imperial tax and monetary policies had led to the impoverishment and hence imprisonment of many colonists following the French and Indian War. They beseeched London elites not to tack the Stamp Act onto their many woes but were met with disdain. They won that one, with some violence and many threats, but the British soon piled on additional regulations. The colonists responded with remonstrances, trade embargoes, and so forth, but after the Boston “Massacre” (Patriot propaganda of course) and the mob insurrection against tea in Boston Harbor (British propaganda), violence soon escalated into full blown war.

    Puerto Rican nationalists were also frustrated. The island had gained some de jure independence from Spain in 1897, the year before the Yankee empire invaded and claimed jurisdiction over it. It took over half a century for the United States to grant limited autonomy to Puerto Rico, a reform that did not go far enough for nationalists, who in late October 1950 openly rebelled in several important towns and cities, including San Juan. Puerto Rican police and troops, bolstered by US military forces, quelled the uprisings, which resulted in scores of casualties. On 1 November, two Puerto Rican nationalists attacked President Truman in the Blair House, his temporary residence while the White House was being renovated. One LEO was killed in the attack, as was one of the attackers, while the other was captured, convicted, and imprisoned. 

    Unscathed in the attack, Truman supported a plebiscite on Puerto Rico’s status but, crucially, independence was literally not on the ballot. Nationalists boycotted the election, which overwhelmingly endorsed commonwealth status for the island. From their perspective, the election had been stolen even before it was held.

    None of that background excuses the 1954 attack but it does explain why some nationalists were frustrated enough to resort to violence.

    The same could be said of the small minority of peaceful protestors who attempted to overrun the White House in early June 2020. As I then wrote, those calling for redistribution of resources away from the police were rightly frustrated by continued state violence against poorer Americans, especially those of color, and offered a path toward reducing governmental power without encouraging criminal chaos.

    As for the events of 6 January, every politico lays blame on somebody else and moralizes instead of admitting their own role in causing, or at least not allaying, the frustrations that undergirded the attack. (All federal politicians should resign and donate their entire net worths to the Treasury because all are abject failures … but I won’t hold my breath on that.)  

    I have bad news — much like my news that 2021 would not necessarily be better than 2020 — things could get much, much worse. If you thought recent events were scary, imagine a million or more armed Americans storming the federal zone in DC and burning it to the ground regardless of upgraded security measures. (Vide the apparently insufficient 2017 upgrade.) That is not yet a prediction, and is certainly not a wish, but the probability of such an event is palpably higher than it was just a year ago.

    To reduce the probability of such a horror, America needs real statesmen (leaders of any gender who seek to implement rational policies instead of engaging in constant partisan pandering) to emerge from this mess.

    Real leaders should:

    1. Not use the attack on the Capitol as an excuse to further erode civil liberties. In fact, they should encourage frustrated individuals to engage in peaceful protest, like burning effigies, that is more cathartic than mere virtue signaling via haberdashery or social media posts.

    2. Stop lying about Covid-19. Read the Covid-related posts on this website for the last year for details.

    3. Lay bare the fact that most policy proposals redistribute resources from one group to another and encourage open debate about the tradeoffs involved.

    4. Focus policy on reducing frustration, even if that means cutting the power of corporate or party monopolies and duopolies, unions, and the government itself. 

    5. Chastise every media outlet that engages in partisan hyperbole and encourage the reestablishment of trusted, nonpartisan news sources.

    6. Chastise politicians who call for metaphorical “wars” on everything and anything (including viruses!) and constantly use martial words like “fight” when they really mean “work on behalf of.”

    7. Pass reforms that reestablish trust in elections. (I have long advocated a Constitutional amendment to tie representation in the House [and hence Electoral College weight too] to the number of people who cast ballots rather than on the number of residents, which frankly is already a tricky concept that will get trickier as online work becomes more common. This would give states incentives to encourage voting but also implicate the Census Bureau as a federal check. But other possible reforms abound.)

    8. Insist that any other reforms, say of SCOTUS, be completely nonpartisan by, for example, having any additional justices chosen by the next administration or, better yet, a random draw from a qualified group.

    Do any such real leaders exist in 2021 America? I doubt it, but sometimes existential threats birth greatness.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 20:25

  • Here Are The Top 10 Questions Goldman Clients Have About China
    Here Are The Top 10 Questions Goldman Clients Have About China

    With Chinese stocks soaring in recent weeks, and the blue chip CSI 300 index surpassing its 2015 Chinese stock bubble highs..

    … momentum chasers investors from around the world are predictably once again poking around in Chinese markets (especially amid the recent confusion surrounding the bilateral crackdown on Alibaba, and the US-led sanctions on Chinese telecom and various megacap stocks), which is why Goldman’s top China strategist Kinger Lau writes that amid the “extensive client conversations” he had in recent days, investor interests and questions have revolved around ten particular topics. Here are the Top 10 China FAQs by Goldman clients, from the latest Goldman “China Musings” report:

    1. Upside and drivers? China rallied 26% in 2020. Strong EPS growth (21%/15% for 21E/22E) on stable PEs (GSe: 15.6x vs 15.5x now) will drive 17% total returns for MXCN this year. Goldman expects a more balanced return profile (New vs.Old China) and prefers China A tactically given its higher macro cyclicality and lower sensitivity to external and Internet policies.

    2. GDP growth and vaccine? China’s output has surpassed its pre-Covid levels. (GSe: 2%/8% GDPg in 20/21), with consumption being a key growth driver in2021. The first Chinese vaccine has been approved last week but should have only moderate growth impulse.

    3. Is China tightening? Policy stimulus should fade this year as growth recovers. However, the recalibration should be gradual and growth-dependent, and, in what may be the most laughable statement in modern history, Goldman claims that “moderating policy support doesn’t always deflate equity returns.” Brilliant.

    4. Industry regulation? Antitrust and FinTech regulations are top policy priorities for 2021, but unlike in 2018, regulatory oversight isn’t tightening across the board although it may pressure valuations for certain companies/sectors.

    5. US restrictions on Chinese stocks? Clarity has recently emerged for ADR de-listing risks but uncertainty remains regarding the Executive Order, notably the scope of restriction, index exclusion, and forced de-listing. 

    6. Rotating from Growth to Value? Goldman stays structurally positive on Growth, but have been scaling up cyclical exposures, instead of pure Value, in its allocation.

    7. Themes and sectors for 2021? Following the 14th Five Year Plan as the anchor for thematic investing, Goldman favors a hybrid of Growth and Cyclicals sectors to start 2021.

    8. Is China crowded? No, in fact, positioning is at all-time lows according to GS, which expects robust inflows on decent growth, continuing market reforms, and an appreciating Rmb.

    9. HSI revamp? More New China, less Old China and HK representation are likely after the index rebalancing in Mar.

    10. Risks? Sino-US tensions, private sector policy, leverage, and property tightening:

    • The developments of US-China relationship under a new US administration;
    • Over tightening in China property which contributes to around 20% of GDP via direct and indirect channels;
    • China leverage, which is at all-time highs with rising number of defaults;
    • POE regulation tightening which my present upside risk to equity risk premia.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 20:00

  • Here It Comes: 'Patriot Act 2.0' Aimed At The UnWoke Enemy Within
    Here It Comes: ‘Patriot Act 2.0’ Aimed At The UnWoke Enemy Within

    Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

    It’s not been often, in the five years OffG has existed, that we’ve had to cop to missing something important within 24 hours of publishing an article – but this is one of those times.

    In my article yesterday – “The Storming of the Capitol”: America’s Reichstag Fire? – I said this [my emphasis]:

    Although there is not yet any talk of legislation [in response to the Capitol Hill riots], it’s certainly true there are whispers of purges and other measures to “protect the constitution”.

    That quote did not age well, indeed it was wrong from the moment it went to print. Because, as it turns out, there has actually been “talk of legislation” for weeks – even months. Soon-to-be-President Joe Biden promised a new “domestic terrorism bill” back in November, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    That is why you’re seeing so much usage of the phrase “domestic terrorism” in the last couple of days.

    It’s the meme-phrase. The primary talking point for this whole exercise. It was underlined in all the memos sent out to all the media outlets.

    That’s why Joe Biden went to such lengths to distinguish “domestic terrorists” from “protesters” in his speech following the riots.

    That’s why the Council on Foreign Relations had an interview with a “counter-terrorism and national security expert” published within 24 hours of the incident, in which he spends 4 paragraphs arguing that the people who “stormed the capitol” were domestic terrorists.

    That’s why the Washington Post has got an article dedicated to “lawmakers and experts” arguing that the Capitol Hill protest was an act of “domestic terrorism”. And so have Vox. And Mother Jones.

    That’s why ABC had an article about how “domestic terrorism and hate crimes” were a growing problem in America…a week before the riot took place.

    And that’s why #TrumpisaDomesticTerrorist is trending on Twitter.

    Georgetown University, a well-known spook college, published a paper in September 2020 titled the “The Need for a Specific Law Against Domestic Terrorism”, and op-ed pieces bemoaning the lack of such a law have been dotted through the press going back to last summer and even late 2019.

    There was one published yesterday, in which a “senior FBI official” says “more could have been done” if there had been a “specific law outlawing” domestic terrorism.

    “Domestic Terrorism” is clearly where it’s at in early 2021, so we can expect a brand new law regarding it…probably by March, at the latest.

    What will “Domestic Terrorism” mean in this law?

    The answer to that is pretty much always “whatever they want it to mean.”

    Certainly, it will include “incitement” and “hate speech”, I would expect “denialism” to make an appearance, and be downright shocked if “spreading misinformation” doesn’t get a mention. Don’t be surprised if “questioning elections” or “bringing democracy into disrepute” is made an outright crime.

    It will probably be tied into the Covid “pandemic” in some way, too. After all, what is discouraging people from taking vaccines if not the very definition of “terrorism”, right? It’s possible that even climate change will get a mention as well. They like to slide that into every issue these days.

    Joe Biden has claimed multiple times to be the author of the original Patriot Act, saying it was based entirely on a bill he proposed in the wake of the Oklahoma City bombing of 1995.

    Well now he has a chance to work on the reboot too, and they are always so much better when you can get the original creative team back together.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 19:45

  • Biden Says He Will 'Defeat the NRA' While In Office
    Biden Says He Will ‘Defeat the NRA’ While In Office

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    President-elect Joe Biden on Jan. 8 promised to “defeat” the National Rifle Association while he’s in office.

    Biden’s official Twitter account was responding to former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.), who was among 14 people wounded in a shooting rampage by Jared Lee Loughner in Tucson in 2011; six people died in the attack. Giffords had recounted how her life and community “changed forever.”

    “But the attack did not break me—or the people I represented in Congress. We came together, turned pain into purpose, and found hope in each other,” she wrote, adding that she continues to work to “achieve a safer America.”

    Biden responded, saying: “Your perseverance and immeasurable courage continue to inspire me and millions of others. I pledge to continue to work with you—and with survivors, families, and advocates across the country—to defeat the NRA and end our epidemic of gun violence.”

    The NRA, which has more than 5 million members, seeks to protect and educate people about their Second Amendment rights.

    The National Riffle Association of America (NRA) headquarters in Fairfax, Va., on Aug. 6, 2020. (Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images)

    While the association didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on Biden’s post, its lobbying arm recently published an article that says Biden would “begin a concerted attack on the rights of American gun owners” after being inaugurated.

    “We must be ready for the onslaught,” the post reads, adding that a Biden administration, if officials get their way, “will ban and confiscate the most-commonly-owned rifle in the United States” and “will arbitrarily limit the number of guns that can be bought per month,” among other measures.

    Biden’s website says he has a plan to end “our gun violence epidemic” and boasts that he has taken on the NRA twice and won, referring to his help passing the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act in 1993 and in passing a 10-year ban on some weapons and magazines the following year.

    “As president, Joe Biden will defeat the NRA again,” the site states.

    Some of the proposals include banning the manufacture and sale of so-called assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, restricting the number of guns one person may buy per month to one, and prohibiting people convicted of hate crimes from owning guns.

    Follow Zachary on Twitter: @zackstieber

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 19:35

  • For The First Time Ever, Real US Investment Grade Yields Turn Negative
    For The First Time Ever, Real US Investment Grade Yields Turn Negative

    In late December, in our recap of a “year like no other” for credit markets, we showed a stunning chart which perhaps best summarized the “insanity unleashed by central banks.” The chart in question showed that a record-high number of European IG (investment grade) bonds were trading with negative yields. To wit, as of December 15, 41% of the EUR IG iBoxx index yields in sub-zero territory; a level that matches the previous record in August 2019.

    Even more impressive: more than 10% of the index now yields below -0.25%, and as Goldman concluded, “negative yields are likely remain a fixture of the EUR IG corporate bond market in 2021, even if bund bond yields back up in response to solid growth next year. Combined with the decent demand tailwind from ECB purchases, this would keep search for yield motives strong.”

    Fast forward a few weeks, when it’s not just the EU where the corporate bond market is trading at absurd levels.

    As Goldman’s credit strategist Michael Puempel writes, in early December, real yields on USD IG corporate bonds turned negative for the first time in history, against a backdrop of all-time high duration.

    As Goldman elaborates, the relentless march lower of real yields to negative territory “reflects the combined effects of the material decline in nominal corporate bond yields and the back-up in inflation expectations.”  The next chart shows how widespread negative real yielding corporate debt in the USD market is, with more than 25% of issues, representing more than 30%of index-eligible par value, priced with a real yield below -0.5%.

    This means that a large portion of IG-rated corporations are expected to be paid, on an inflation-adjusted basis, to borrow in the USD market today, according to Goldman. And although all-time high duration comes with its own risks, negative real yields will likely skew incentives for corporate issuers – encouraging them to issue even more debt – while at the same time mechanically increase risks for investors.

    A quick look at these two key factors starting with…

    Skewed incentives for issuers

    There is always competing interests between equity- and debt-holders when it comes to corporate issuance and the uses thereof. This tension will be exacerbated for corporates that can issue at very low, i.e. negative, real yields. Specifically, the lower the yield at which a corporation can issue debt, the higher the incentives are to return capital to shareholders, via either debt-funded M&A or share repurchases (or, more recently, by purchasing bitcoin). Meanwhile, Goldman forecasts that negative real yields for such a large portion of the IG universe has elevated the risk that “the significant increase in gross balance sheet leverage, which was meant to be a temporary response to the sudden stop in the economy, ends up being permanent.”

    Elevated risks for investors

    The risks for investors in this environment, as it relates to negative real yields is two-fold:

    First, and the most acute, is that investor returns are now very susceptible to even the slightest unexpected uptick in the inflation. While traded breakeven inflation is not a perfect proxy for expected inflation, as it embeds a risk premium, positive real yields have historically provided, at least to some degree, a cushion with respect to an unexpected inflation shock. This is no longer the case, because even if realized inflation falls below market expectations, it may not be enough to push ex-post real yields back into positive territory given current levels.

    The second risk for investors is related to the second-order effect of low yields; re-leveraging risk. That is, if firms take the “opportunity” presented by yields at historic lows to increase the size of their capital structures even further, this could in Goldman’s words, “manifest itself in heightened fallen angel/downgrade risk under a scenario in which the earnings recovery of highly levered issuers do not rebound at a pace commensurate with expectations.”

    While these risks should be manageable in the near-term given improving growth expectations for 2021 on the back of massive stimulus, as the economy reverts back to full-capacity, Goldman concludes that “it will be crucial for both corporate bond issuers and investors to shift their decision-making frameworks to account for real, as opposed to nominal, outcomes.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 19:10

  • "A Huge Reversal" – Louis Gave Warns "Inflation Will Come Back With A Vengeance"
    “A Huge Reversal” – Louis Gave Warns “Inflation Will Come Back With A Vengeance”

    Authored by Mark Dittli via TheMarket.ch,

    Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO and co-founder of Gavekal Research, sees a dramatic paradigm shift playing out in the world economy. In this in-depth conversation, he explains how investors should position themselves for the future.

    Louis-Vincent Gave is a master of the big picture. The co-founder of Hong Kong-based research boutique Gavekal is one of the most esteemed writers about geopolitical and macroeconomic developments and their impact on financial markets.

    In this in-depth conversation with The Market NZZ, Mr. Gave shares his views on the Dollar, stock markets, oil and gold prices – and he explains why the United States are starting to act like a «sick emerging market».

    Mr Gave, 2020 has been a catalyst for some big shifts in the global investment environment. Looking into the future, what are the biggest topics for you?

    I’ve spent most of my career in Asia, so my lens is fundamentally biased towards Asia. With that disclaimer, I would say this: When the Covid crisis started, the view in the West was that this would be China’s Chernobyl Moment. That they completely screwed up, which would eventually weaken the regime. Fast forward to today, and China comes out of this looking much better than most Western countries. If there is one big divergence in the world, it is this: In most Western countries, the population is angry at how their government dealt with the pandemic, either because they think the government did too much or too little. But in China, there is a feeling that there were two big crises in the past 15 years, the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and now Covid, and China in both cases came out ahead of the West. Most of Asia actually came out of this much better than the Western world.

    What else do you see?

    When I look at markets, there are three key prices in the world economy: Ten year Treasury yields, oil, and the Dollar. One year ago, yields were going down, oil was going down, and the Dollar was going up. Today, Treasury yields are going up, oil is going up, and the Dollar is going down. This is a huge reversal. When I see a market where interest rates are rising and the currency is falling, alarm bells go off.

    Why?

    This is what you would see in a sick emerging market. If you’re invested in, say, Indonesia, rising interest rates and a falling currency is a signal that investors are getting out, because they don’t like the policy setting there. Today, the US is starting to act like a sick emerging market. We even have a question mark over whether they have the ability to run a fair election. Suffice to say that at least 30% of Americans believe their election system is rigged. This is mindblowing.

    What’s the policy setting investors don’t like in the US?

    Government debt in the US has increased by more than $4 trillion this year, which adds up to $12,800 per person. This is a world record, but actually most Western governments have gone on a massive spending spree during this crisis. In a way, they’re using the playbook that China followed after 2008, when they allowed a massive increase in fiscal spending and monetary aggregates. Today, Beijing sits on its hands in terms of fiscal and monetary policy, while the West knows no limits.

    They’re doing it to soften the blow of the pandemic. What’s wrong with that?

    When China did this in 2008, they funded massive infrastructure projects: airports, railroads, roads, ports, you name it. Some of these projects turned out to be productive and some not, but I always thought they would be definitely more productive than social transfers. But this year, the debt buildup in the US has funded zero new productive investments. No new roads, no airports, railroads, nothing. They were basically just sending money to people to sit at home and watch TV. In the end, this buildup of unproductive debt can be reflected in one of two things: Either in the cost of funding for the government, i.e. in rising interest rates, or in a devaluation of the currency. This is what the French economist Jacques Rueff taught us years ago. Very soon, this is going to put the Fed in a quandary.

    In what way?

    They will have to decide whether to let bond yields rise or not. If they let them normalize to pre-Covid levels, 10-year Treasury yields would have to rise to about 2.5%. But if they do that, the funding of the government becomes problematic. A 50 basis point increase in interest rates is equivalent to the annual budget for the U.S. Navy. Another 30 bp is the equivalent for the U.S. Marines, and so on. The U.S. is already borrowing money to pay its interest today. If rates go up, they’re getting into the cycle where they have to borrow more just to be able to pay interest, which is not a good position.

    Do you expect the Fed to move in and cap interest rates?

    Yes, I do. And when they do, I’d say the Dollar will take a 20% hit.

    Ten year Treasuries currently yield around 0.95%. At what level will the Fed step in?

    I think they will have to cap interest rates at 2%, otherwise the drag on the government will become too big. That question will arise rather soon, because come this spring, the base effects for growth and for inflation will kick in. Growth will be very strong, and so will inflation, which means that yields will quickly try to get back up to 2%.

    You recently wrote a piece where you recommended buying gold and financials to prepare for this event. Why gold, and why financials?

    My base case is that Treasury yields will move up to around 2%, at which point the Fed will introduce some variant of yield curve control. In this case, the Dollar would tank, real interest rates would drop and gold would thrive. But maybe I’m wrong, maybe the Fed freaks out when they see inflation rising to 4%, and maybe they decide to let yields rise. If that’s the case, then financials will rip higher, driven by a steeper yield curve. So come this spring, if the Fed caps interest rates, gold will thrive, and if it doesn’t, financials will thrive.

    But you’d lean towards gold?

    Yes. It’s quite possible that in the coming weeks, the Dollar will rise while Treasury yields move up. This could provoke a sell-off in gold. If that were to happen, I’d take the other side of that trade, I would buy gold. But at the same time, you can buy out of the money call options on financials. That would be the hedge for the scenario of the Fed changing its mind and letting the yield curve steepen.

    The Dollar has been strong for the past ten years. Has it entered a new structural bear market?

    Yes, there is no doubt in my mind. A year ago, the Dollar was the only major currency offering positive real rates. My view is that capital flows into positive real rates, just like water flows downhill. Today, the U.S. has one of the most negative real interest rates worldwide. Given the year-on-year rise we will see in inflation this spring, real interest rates in the U.S. will drop even further.

    Apart from negative real yields, what are the other reasons for the Dollar bear market?

    We first have to ask ourselves why we even had a Dollar bull market in the past decade. The answer is the shale oil revolution. As the United States moved towards energy independence after 2011, its trade deficit shrank. The shale oil revolution meant that all of a sudden, the U.S. was no longer exporting money.

    And that tide has now turned?

    Yes. Oil production in the U.S. is collapsing. The Texan wildcatters have lost out in the price war against the Saudis and the Russians. U.S. oil production has already gone down 2.5 million barrels per day and is slated to go down by another 2.5 million over the next twelve months, because every major oil company is cutting capital expenditures. Just look at Chevron and Exxon, their capital spending plans over the next five years are at half the level they were in 2014. And so, as the U.S. economy picks up after Covid, America will be importing oil on a massive scale again. The U.S. will be back to exporting $100 to $120 billion to the rest of the world, mostly to places that don’t like America, who will turn around and sell those Dollars for Euros. This is bearish for the Dollar.

    When we see the oil price heading above $50 again, wouldn’t that cause US production to rise?

    You can’t turn up oil production like a tap. It will take at least a couple of years to come back. Plus, shale oil production in the U.S. was hugely capital destructive. More than $350 billion was lost in the shale oil patch over the past ten years. Look at the energy sector today, it’s at 2.5% of the S&P 500. When oil was at $10 per barrel, back in 1999, energy was 5.5% of the S&P 500. So I’m going to answer your question with another question: If oil prices go up, and the U.S. could produce more oil again, it would require hundreds of billions of Dollars in capex. Who will provide that kind of capital, with an incoming Democratic Administration that has been ambivalent about fracking? I don’t see it.

    So we are moving back into a world where the U.S. is a structural oil importer and a Dollar exporter?

    Yes. The seeds are planted. That’s a huge shift that I don’t think people are taking into account yet.

    When the world economy normalizes after the pandemic, where will the oil price settle?

    Before Covid, it seemed that the oil market had found a balance between 60 and 80 $ per barrel.

    Is that the range we’ll head back to?

    I think so, and for a pretty simple reason: Above 80 $, China basically stops buying. That’s a big difference relative to ten to fifteen years ago, when China hadn’t built any sizeable inventory and was a forced buyer of oil. This is no longer the case. In fact, you saw it during the Covid crisis: Between April and June, when the oil price collapsed, China imported about 13 million barrels per day, which was 40% more than normal. Clearly, they were building up inventory, taking advantage of the low price. China is the marginal buyer, and its behaviour is a key driver for the oil price: Above 80 $ they stop buying, and below 60 $ they buy in size. Incidentally, in that range, many oil companies make pretty decent money. Saudi Aramco makes a killing at this price level.

    You see the Dollar in a bear market. Meanwhile, the Renminbi has strengthened significantly. Is that also a structural shift?

    I think so. In the past, every time there was a crisis, the reaction of the People’s Bank of China was to freeze the exchange rate. During and after the global financial crisis, the RMB flatlined against the Dollar at 6.82 for two years. In 2015, when the Chinese equity bubble burst, the RMB was flat for several months. When things went bad, historically, they froze it. Not this year. This year, we saw the sharpest six month RMB rally in history. That is a clear change in policy.

    What’s behind that change?

    I don’t know, but the facts are clear. China today is the only major economy in the world that offers large positive real interest rates. Thus, capital flows into the Chinese bond market. The PBoC is the only major central bank publicly saying they won’t destroy their currency and they won’t proceed to the euthanasia of the rentier. The consequences of this are hugely important. A strong RMB is a fundamentally inflationary force for the world economy.

    How so?

    Manufacturers around the world have to compete with Chinese producers. Therefore, a weak RMB drives prices down, whereas a strong RMB drives prices up. You can compare it to the role of the Yen forty years ago. A stronger RMB means stronger consumption in China and Asia, and it means that whatever we buy from China is going up in price. It’s not surprising that as the RMB rerates, the U.S. yield curve steepens and oil prices go up: It’s all part of the same reflationary backdrop.

    Given this backdrop: Do you see a return of structural inflation in Western economies?

    Yes, I think inflation will come back with a vengeance. One of the key deflationary forces in the past three decades was China. I wrote a book about that in 2005; I was a deflationist then, as my belief was that every company in the world would focus on what they can do best and outsource everything else to China at lower costs. But now, we’re in a new world, a world that I outlined in my last book, Clash of Empires, where supply chains are broken up along the lines of separate empires. Let me give you a simple example: Over the past two years, the US has done everything it could to kill Huawei. It’s done so by cutting off the semiconductor supply chain to Huawei. The consequence is that every Chinese company today is worried about being the next Huawei, not just in the tech space, but in every industry. Until recently, price and quality was the most important consideration in any corporate supply chain. Now we have moved to a world where safety of delivery matters most, even if the cost is higher. This is a dramatic paradigm shift.

    And this paradigm shift will be a key driver for inflation?

    Yes. It adds up to a huge hit to productivity. Productivity is under attack from everywhere, from regulation, from ESG-investors, and now it’s also under attack from security considerations. This would only not be inflationary if on the other side central banks were acting with restraint. But of course we know that central banks are printing money like never before.

    What will that mean for investors?

    First, there will be two kinds of countries going forward: countries that massively monetized the Covid shock and those that did not. I’d compare the picture to the late 1970s, where countries like the U.S., the U.K. or France monetized the oil price shock, while Japan, Germany and Switzerland did not. This led to a huge revaluation of the Yen, the Deutschmark and the Swiss Franc. Today, the Fed and the ECB were among the central banks that massively monetized, while many central banks in Asia did not. So I expect a big revaluation of Asian currencies over the coming five years, which in itself is inflationary for the world. If you look at the U.S. today, inventories are at record lows. With the economy improving in 2021, companies will have to restock, and they will have to restock with a falling Dollar. The Dollar is down 20% to the Mexican Peso over the past six months, down 10% to the Korean Won, down 8% to the RMB, so whatever Americans buy from abroad will be more expensive. Countries with weak currencies, the U.S. first among them, will have higher inflation.

    Where will inflation rates settle?

    I don’t know. There is the idea among central bankers that they can engineer inflation rates around 2.5% and keep them there. I doubt that this will be possible to control. But just for the sake of it, let’s assume they manage to do what they say, that they are the perfect engineers they think they are and get inflation at 2.5% for the next five years. Why on Earth would you want to own Treasuries at 0.9% or German Bunds at below zero? You don’t even have to get to a scenario where inflation accelerates to 4 or 5% to see that bonds are madness today. Even if central banks just manage to do what they say, you are guaranteed to lose money with bonds.

    What should investors do to position themselves in this new world?

    In the old world, where interest rates were falling, the Dollar was strong and oil was weak, you bought Treasuries and U.S. growth stocks and went to the beach. Now, the world has changed. This means you have to stay away from bonds and U.S. growth stocks. In a world of Dollar weakness, you buy emerging market equities and debt, and within emerging markets, I prefer Asia. In a world where either the yield curve will steepen or the Dollar will collapse, either financials or the commodities sector will be doing well. Everything seems to point towards commodities, including energy, but as mentioned, I’d still buy financials as a hedge against a steepening yield curve. So, in a nutshell: Buy value stocks, buy the commodities sector, and buy emerging markets. And for the antifragile part of your portfolio, buy RMB bonds and gold.

    How about Japan?

    Absolutely, Japan is in a stealth bull market, it has been very strong, and nobody talks about it. We never get questions on Japan from clients. I’m a big bull on Japan, it’s not a crowded trade, so I feel comfortable in it. In a world that is reflating, Japan typically does well. And in this unfolding new Cold War between the U.S. and China, Japanese industrial companies are well positioned.

    Aren’t you a bit early in writing off big U.S. tech?

    Growth stocks have had their run in the past ten years, with falling bond yields and a rising Dollar. In a reflationary world, they will underperform. Plus, tech is the main battleground in the war between the U.S. and China. I see the tech world breaking into three separate zones, one dominated by America, one dominated by China and India evolving into a zone by itself. You can own the champions in each zone, which means you can own Amazon or Google for the West, or Tencent in China. In danger are companies that straddle the two worlds. Huawei tried, and we saw it being killed. I see Apple at risk, too. I know I said this to you a year ago, and I turned out to be completely wrong, but I still think Apple is in danger, as it straddles the U.S. and Chinese tech spheres.

    In the middle of this tech war sits Taiwan. What are your thoughts about Taiwan and the semiconductor industry?

    Taiwan today is what Alsace-Lorraine was 120 years ago. There were two hugely important events this year that most people have missed because of the Covid crisis. One, the market value of the global semiconductor industry has moved above the market value of the global energy sector. The market is telling us that semiconductors are more important than energy; they are the commodity of the future. We should think of Taiwan the way we used to think of Saudi Arabia.

    What’s the second important event?

    At the end of 2019, the market value of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing was $200 billion, while the market value of Intel was $350 billion. Today, TSMC is $450 billion, while Intel has dropped to $200 billion. Why? This summer, TSMC came out and said they can produce 7 nanometer chips and will be able to produce 3nm chips in 2023. A week later, Intel came out and said they won’t be able to produce 7nm chips by 2021. So in the summer of 2020, we witnessed the passing of the technological baton from Intel to TSMC. The leadership in the semiconductor industry now belongs to Taiwan.

    Why does this matter?

    It matters because Washington has decided to make semiconductors the battleground in its war against China. And that means that Taiwan is the battleground in the great conflict of the 21st Century, an island that Beijing regards as a renegade province, sitting 60 miles from its shore. Taiwan has always been a sore point between China and the U.S., even when Taiwan produced plastic toys and bicycles. Imagine if Saudi Arabia was a political uncertainty between America and China, where the regime depended on Washington for survival, but the territory was claimed by China. We’d be very worried.

    How will that conflict play out?

    I don’t know what will happen. But I’d just say that the fact that the Trump Administration decided to make semiconductors the battleground in its fight with China strikes me as extremely dangerous, given the fact that the U.S. has just lost the technology leadership baton to Taiwan. That, to me, will be the most important event in 2020, more important than Covid.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 18:45

  • Watch: Likely Capitol Rioter Booted Off Plane For Being A "Terrorist" 
    Watch: Likely Capitol Rioter Booted Off Plane For Being A “Terrorist” 

    Some pro-Trump rioters who stormed the Capitol complex last week may have already been added to the federal No-Fly List. 

    Last Thursday, Rep. Bennie G. Thompson (D-MS), Chairman of the Committee on Homeland Security, released a statement requesting the Transportation Security Administration and the Federal Bureau of Investigation to use their powers to add pro-Trump rioters to the No-Fly List.

    “Given the heinous domestic terrorist attack on the U.S. Capitol yesterday, I am urging the Transportation Security Administration and the Federal Bureau of Investigation to use their authorities to add the names of all identified individuals involved in the attack to the federal No-Fly List and keep them off planes,” Thompson said in a statement.

    He added: “Alleged perpetrators of a domestic terrorist attack who have been identified by the FBI should be held accountable.”

    Federal authorities have requested assistance in identifying people “related to violent activity” in the Capitol building. 

    For days, one after another, rioters who stormed the Capitol have been identified and arrested. In particular, the most iconic image of the chaos last week was a man sitting back with his feet on Nancy Pelosi’s desk.

    Days later, the man was arrested by federal authorities. 

    So here’s where things get interesting. 

    A video surfaced on Twitter Sunday via @RayRedacted who said, “People who broke into the Capitol Wednesday are now learning they are on No-Fly lists pending the full investigation. They are not happy about this.” 

    The unidentified man, yelling at an unknown airport about being kicked off a plane because he was labeled a “terrorist.” 

    In the video, the man could be heard saying, “They kicked me off the plane – they called me a f**king terrorist.” 

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    We should remind readers the video has yet to be confirmed.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 18:33

  • "Don't Panic": Entire Nation Of Pakistan Loses Power In Massive Blackout
    “Don’t Panic”: Entire Nation Of Pakistan Loses Power In Massive Blackout

    Top government officials in Pakistan are urging calm after the entire country was plunged into darkness on Saturday night due to a breakdown in the national power grid.

    “A countrywide blackout has been caused by a sudden plunge in the frequency in the power transmission system,” Pakistan’s Power Minister Omar Ayub Khan announced, according to Reuters.

    Karachi, via AFP

    The blackout is nearly unprecedented as it has impacted over 200 million people across every city, town and village. The last power grid shutdown approaching this size hasn’t been seen since 2015. 

    According to CNN reporting:

    In a statement, the Ministry of Energy said that, according to an initial report, there had been a fault at the Guddu Thermal Power Plant in Pakistan’s southern Sindh province, which had caused power plants across the country to shut down.

    …Efforts are now underway to restore power to various parts of the country. Large swathes of Karachi, the largest city in Pakistan, still do not have power, according to information shared by K-Electric, the company supplying power to the city.

    The report further quoted residents who were witnessing hours-long lines outside gas stations where people were hoping to fuel generators. 

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    “There are long lines outside petrol pumps in the city, cars are queuing as people buy fuel for their back up generators. I was in the line, people have been waiting for hours with petrol cans in hand,” one Karachi resident said.

    A Pakistan airline industry official had said, “All major airports in the country have back up generators,” while noting airports and flights remained operational. 

    As of early Sunday evening (local time) Pakistan’s energy minister said that power had been restored to much of the country, and faulted a significant technical issue. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 18:20

  • The Swamp Swallowed Trump
    The Swamp Swallowed Trump

    Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

    You would think that if there’s one group of people who’d recognize a coup if they saw one, it would be the American people. Because their intelligence services have been involved in almost all coups in the world for many decades; let’s say since WWII, to keep it simple.

    Just in the most recent past, they staged and conducted coups in Libya, Ukraine, Syria, Venezuela and many other places (think Bolivia). Libya was the only real “successful” one, thanks to Gaddafi being sodomized with a bayonet, leading to Hillary’s giddy We Came, We Saw, He Died, the by far ugliest face of the US by a mile. That and the open-air slave markets that resulted from sodomizing to death the man who led Africa’s wealthiest country and gave his people benefits that Americans can only dream of.

    And now Hillary’s crew are about to be handed the reins again. Or as Michael Tracey put it: “The new corporate authoritarian liberal-left monoculture is going to be absolutely ruthless – and in 12 days it is merging with the state. This [is] only the beginning.” Duck for cover.

    The screwed-up coups in Ukraine, Syria, Venezuela etc. would appear to signal that the CIA is not very adept (anymore?!) at organizing coups, or maybe they just chronically overestimate their skills at it. Whichever way it may be, they have done more damage to America and its standing in the world than Donald Trump could ever have dreamt of doing.

    So you would think Americans would recognize a coup, but instead they’re the last group of people on the planet who would. Because their media doesn’t present them as coups. They’re labeled as spreading democracy, freedom etc., as standing up against the bad guys, and liberating innocent people -even if many of them die in the process.

    People dying is a feature of these coups, not a bug.

    People get shot, bombed, disappeared, in a word: killed.

    Anyway, it’s way more and better than ironic that all these very deadly CIA-led operations are not labeled coups, but then the clowns and actors spectacle that took place in Washington DC this week, is. Which is possible only because they never told people what a coup actually is. Only then can you make them believe that some wanker in a furry viking helmet outfit is trying to overthrow the government. At the initiative of the democratically elected president, no less.

    Are these people extremists and terrorists or are they clowns and actors? I would lean towards the latter option.

    A coup requires a plan, a playbook, most often elites who think they have a shot at taking over a country, which in turn requires support from at least part of an army. The best these folks could think of was sitting in Pelosi’s office and take selfies.

    That doesn’t make the march on the Capitol a good thing, far from it, but there are a lot of people out there who don’t like the way the president they elected in 2016 has been treated by the MSM, his political opponents, and US intelligence. And after the theater that has been Russiagate, the Mueller debacle and the Zelensky call-based impeachment, maybe that shouldn’t be too surprising.

    The main problem for Trump lately would appear to have been his legal representation. I’ve said all along: let the dice roll where they may, there are many questions surrounding the election and they have the right to go looking for answers to these questions.

    But if you look at what the status is today of what the likes of Rudy Giuliani, Jenna Ellis, Sidney Powell and Lin Wood have come up with, you think they might as well have been working for the other side. Still, we’ve at least seen the dice roll, and they came up they way they did. The process was allowed to proceed, and this is the outcome. This has misled Trump as well as his followers. They thought there was something substantial -and tanglible- there, because that’s what they were told all along.

    This doesn’t mean the US should continue using voting machines, however. There are many countries that hold elections, and there are very few that either use those machines and/or see their elections contested. There’s a reason for that combination. These things can be manipulated, and they will be if they’re used. Get rid of them or this chapter will be repeated endlessly.

    Then again, it all plays out well for anyone but Trump. And perhaps a few GOP’ers who stood by him.

    You could say, Trump entered the swamp and drowned in it, it swallowed him whole.

    Which is not to say that he’s such a perfect character, hell no, but he was the one and only chance to get rid of the power cabal that is DC. Which is a much bigger danger than he could ever be.

    Where career politicians like Pelosi, Schumer, McConnell and Joe Biden can reside for decades, and be handed ever more handsome amounts of money by the lobbyists who write their laws, which benefit the corporations they work for. Trump was the chance to do at least something about this. They ate him alive.

    Now the story is that Trump is/was the main danger, and that he was attempting a coup against his own government. To finish off the job, after being hunted down by the MSM for 4+ years, social media, for whom unceremoniously dumping Trump, after he was their main attraction for years -at least for clickbait-, was just a business decision dressed in some vague set of moral principles, are now simply deleting him.

    And people cheer that.

    They don’t understand that from now on, as US president you serve at the behest, grace and kindness of the CIA, New York Times and WaPo, but even more that of @jack and Zuckerberg, and not that of the American people. As the noise about an attempted coup allows Team Biden to slip in Sally Yates, Susan Rice and Victoria Nuland and their whole gang of neocon warmongers.

    The entire media focus on Trump served to hide what those people were doing behind the scenes all along. And now it’s time to duck for cover. They’re going to try and impeach him again, and then prosecute him, and erase everything he’s done, cheered on by the same media who never told you what a coup actually is. Because they are a big club, and he’s not in it, and neither are you.

    And if you think you can vent an opinion on social media in the future that doesn’t coincide with that of the big club, perhaps you haven’t been paying attention.

    *  *  *

    We try to run the Automatic Earth on donations. Since ad revenue has collapsed, you are now not just a reader, but an integral part of the process that builds this site. Thank you for your support.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 17:55

  • Capitol Police Officer Dies By Suicide Just Days After Siege
    Capitol Police Officer Dies By Suicide Just Days After Siege

    Another Capitol Hill police officer has died, just days after one officer was previously killed during the ‘Stop the Steal’ chaos when he was reportedly hit over the head with a fire extinguisher during the Capitol mayhem that has been driving global headlines.

    Officer Howard Liebengood, 51, reportedly died by suicide while off-duty on Saturday, the US Capitol Police (USCP) announced Sunday in an official statement.

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    The USCP has not disclosed the specific cause of death, and it’s unclear the degree to which Liebengood was involved in “front line” events of Wednesday, which saw five total people die, including one woman that was shot by an officer while attempting to breach a high secure area of Congress.

    However, the wording of police sources close to him strongly suggest Liebengood was on duty at Capitol Hill Wednesday, and may have indeed been at the center of events there:

    Punchbowl reporter Jake Sherman says his sources told him Liebengood’s death was a suicide. He died Saturday while off duty.

    Liebengood joined the Department in 2005.

    Former Capitol Police Chief Terrance Gainer calls Liebengood’s death a “line of duty casualty”… clearly meaning even if it was a suicide there’s a direct connection to the riot.

    “He was assigned to the Senate Division, and has been with the Department since April 2005,” the police statement noted.

    Officer Howie Liebengood in 2014

    “Our thoughts and prayers go out to his family, friends, and colleagues. We ask that his family and other USCP officers’ and their families’ privacy be respected during this profoundly difficult time,” the department’s statement said further.

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    Multiple Congressional leaders have issued statements offering condolences. 

    “I’m saddened to learn about the death of USCP Officer Howard Liebengood. My thoughts and prayers go out to his family and friends. May he rest in peace. Thank you for your service,” Senator Mark Warner (D-Virginia) said.

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    Later in the day Sunday President Trump ordered all flags over federal buildings and US embassies to be flown at half-mast in honor of the two deceased Capitol police officers.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/10/2021 – 17:30

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