- Paul Craig Roberts: "Fellow Americans, Wake Up & Escape The Matrix"
Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,
Where Do Matters Stand?
On the eve of World War II the United States was still mired in the Great Depression and found itself facing war on two fronts with Japan and Germany. However bleak the outlook, it was nothing compared to the outlook today.
Has anyone in Washington, the presstitute Western media, the EU, or NATO ever considered the consequences of constant military and propaganda provocations against Russia? Is there anyone in any responsible position anywhere in the Western world who has enough sense to ask: “What if the Russians believe us? What if we convince Russia that we are going to attack her?”
The same can be asked about China.
The recklessness of the White House Fool and the media whores has gone far beyond mere danger. What do the Russians think when they see that the Democratic Party intends to elect Hillary Clinton president of the US? Hillary is a person so crazed that she declared the president of Russia to be “the new Hitler” and organized through her underling, neocon monster Victoria Nuland, the overthrow of the democratically elected government of Ukraine. Nuland installed Washington’s puppet government in a former Russian province that until about 20 years ago was part of Russia for centuries.
I would bet that this tells even the naive pro-western part of the Russian government and population that the United States intends war with Russia.
Ever since Russia stood up to Obama over Syria, the Russians have been experiencing hostile propaganda and military operations on their borders. These provocations are justified by Washington and its NATO vassals as a response to “Russian aggression.” Russian aggression consists of nothing but obviously false assertions that Russia is about to invade the Baltics, Poland, and Romania and recreate the Soviet Empire, the Eastern European part of which, together with the former Russian provinces of Georgia and Ukraine, now belong to the American Empire.
The Russians know that the propaganda about “Russian aggression” is a lie. What is the purpose of the lie other than to prepare the Western peoples for war with Russia?
There is no other explanation.
Even morons such as Obama, Merkel, Hollande, and Cameron should be capable of understanding that it is extremely dangerous to convince a major military power that you are going to attack. To simultaneously also convince China doubles the danger.
Clearly, the West is incapable of producing leadership capable of preserving life on earth.
What can be done when the entire West demonstrates a death wish for Planet Earth?
Until the criminal regimes of Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama, American presidents from John F. Kennedy forward worked to reduce tensions with the Soviets. Kennedy worked with Khrushchev to reduce tensions caused by US missiles in Turkey and Soviet missiles in Cuba. President Nixon negotiated SALT I (the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty) and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. President Carter negotiated SALT II, which was never ratified by the US Senate but was observed by the executive branch. President Reagan negotiated with Soviet leader Gorbachev the end of the Cold War. President George H.W. Bush in exchange for Gorbachev’s agreement to the reunification of Germany promised that NATO would not move one inch to the East.
All of these achievements were thrown away by the neoconized Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama regimes, each a criminal regime on par with Nazi Germany.
Today life on Planet Earth is far less secure than during the darkest days of the Cold War. Whatever threat global warming poses, it is miniscule compared to the threat of nuclear winter. If the evil that is concentrated in Washington and its vassals perpetrates nuclear war, cockroaches will inherit the earth.
I have been warning about the growing danger of a nuclear war resulting from the arrogance, hubris, ignorance, and evil personified by Washington. Recently, four knowledgable Russian-Americans spelled out the likely consequences of trying to drive Russia to submission with war threats: http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2016/06/03/41522/
Don’t expect the brainwashed American population to have the moral conscience and fortitude to prevent nuclear war or even the intelligence to prevent their own vaporization. In a recent article in the Wall Street Journal Scott Sagan and Benjamin Valentino report that 59% of the US population support attacking Iran with nuclear weapons in the event that Iran sank one US Navy ship: http://www.wsj.com/articles/would-the-u-s-drop-the-bomb-again-1463682867
Republicans were much more likely than Democrats to approve attacking Iran with nuclear weapons with 81% of Republicans approving nuclear war compared to 47% of Democrats. Yet, the Democrats are behind Hillary who would be the first to use nuclear weapons. After all, a feminized woman has to prove how tough she is, just as Margaret Thatcher was “the Iron Lady.”
Before it it too late for Americans and all of humanity, arrogant Americans need to recall that “those who live by the sword, die by the sword.”
The economic picture is equally dismal and unpromising. The latest payroll jobs report was even more awful than reported. Hardly any new jobs were created, but what largely escaped reporting is the fact that the economy actually lost 59,000 full-time jobs.
Increasingly the US economy consists of part-time jobs that cannot support an independent existence. Thus, more Americans age 19-34 live at home with parents than independently with spouses or partners. Fully half of 25-year old Americans live in their childhood rooms in their parents’ homes.
This is the “New Economy” that the filthy lying neoliberal economists promised would be reward for the American work force giving up their manufacturing and professional skill jobs to foreigners. What a monstrous lie the neoliberal economists told so that corporate executives and shareholders could put into their own pockets the living wage of the American work force. These neoliberal economists, and, alas, libertarian “free market” ones, have not been held accountable for their impoverishment of the American work force deeply buried in debt with no future prospects.
Those few Americans who have any awareness are beginning to realize that the One Percent and the western governments that serve them are re-establishing feudalism. The brilliant and learned economist, Michael Hudson, has labeled our era the era of neo-feudalism.
He is correct. The majority of young Americans come out of university heavily indebted, primed for debtor prison. When half of 25-year olds cannot marry and form households, how can anyone believe that housing sales and prices are rising except as a result of speculative investors banking on rental income from a population that cannot even pay its student loans.
The United States is the sickest place on earth. There is no public or political discussion of any important issue or of the multiple crises that confront America or the crises that America brings to the world.
The American people are so stupid and unaware that they are capable of electing a criminal and a warmonger like Hillary president of the United States and be proud of it.
These “tough” Americans are so frightened of hoax dangers, such as “Muslim terrorists” and “Russian aggression” that they willingly sacrificed their depleted pocketbooks, the Constitution of the United States—an act of treason on the part of the American people who utterly failed their responsibility to protect the Constitution—and their own liberty to a universal police state that has all power over them.
It is extraordinary that once-proud, once-great European peoples look for leadership from a country of moronic non-entities who have pissed away the liberty, security, and prosperity that their Founding Fathers gave to them.
Fellow Americans, if you care to avoid vaporization and, assuming we do avoid it, live a life other than serfdom, you must wake up and realize that your most deadly enemy is Washington, not the hoax of “Russian aggression,” not the hoax of “Muslim terrorism,” not the hoax of “domestic extremism,” not the hoax of welfare bankrupting America, not the hoax of democracy voting away your wealth, which Wall Street and the corporations have already stolen and stuck in their pockets.
If you cannot wake up and escape The Matrix, your doom will bring the doom of the planet.
- The "Crime" Of Offending Islam & Death Of Free Speech In Europe
Across Europe, cartoonists, artists and writers are forced to live under police protection, and also often face criminal prosecution – all for the "crime" of offending Islam.
"'Respect' means, for them, submission." It starts with censoring cartoons…
Gatestone Institute's Giulio Meotti explains what is going on across Europe…
Speech is either free or it isn’t. One cannot have it both ways, as the EU apparatchiks apparently think. As soon as restrictions on free speech are introduced, abuse is sure to follow.
- This Employment Trend Is Not Your Friend
Submitted by Michael Lebowtiz of 720 Global
Loan Delinquencies may be Signaling Recession
On June 2, 2016 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) stunned economic prognosticators and the financial media when it reported that 38,000 new jobs were created in May. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was 160,000 new jobs, with estimates ranging from 110,000 to 219,000. Even the most pessimistic forecast turned out grossly optimistic!
At 720 Global we do not forecast economic data, choosing, instead to focus on the bigger macroeconomic picture. That said, we were not surprised by the recent weakness of jobs data. In fact, unlike most forecasters, we do not view the recent employment data as a one-off event but as further proof of a worsening trend in economic activity. In this article, we share a few thoughts that explain why.
Corporate Profitability and Loan Delinquencies
As of the first quarter of 2016, S&P 500 annual earnings have declined for six consecutive quarters and reside at levels last seen in 2013 (data: Standard & Poor’s). Historically, as profitability falters an increasing number of corporate borrowers become delinquent on loans, or worse they default entirely. During such periods corporate executives focus on reducing expenses, which typically translates into reducing headcount. Accordingly, corporate and business loan delinquencies can serve as a barometer of future employment trends.
Commercial and Industrial (C&I) loan delinquency rates, have a strong historical correlation with employment. C&I delinquency rates have risen over the last year and a half, in-line with the decline in corporate profits, to levels last seen four years ago. While the overall delinquency rate is still relatively benign, it is increasing sharply. Another important observation about the delinquency growth rate is that delinquencies tend to trend in one direction for long periods. Note: C&I loans are loans to corporations and businesses and not individuals. Data on these loans are reported on by the Federal Reserve.
The graph below, courtesy of Cyril Castelli of R-Cube, highlights the relationship between the rate of change in C&I delinquencies and employment. The delinquency rates are inverted to better highlight the correlation.
Based on the historical correlation and the sharp growth in C&I loan delinquencies recently, it is conceivable employment drops abruptly over the next 6 months.
BLS Non-Farm Payrolls Data
The graph below charts the three-month moving average of the change in Non-Farm Payrolls against a backdrop of recession periods shaded in light blue.
Over the last 50 years, the U.S. was either in recession or just recovering from one every time three-month job growth went negative (below zero on the graph). In fact, on average a recession began when the three-month average of job growth was still well above zero at 104,000. Currently, the three-month average sits at 116,000. If next month’s report shows fewer than 151,000 jobs created, the three-month average will fall below 104,000.
ISM Non-Manufacturing
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) produces two indices based on a monthly survey of manufacturing and non-manufacturing business leaders. Within the two ISM indices are component indices such as new orders, employment and prices. Most relevant to this discussion is the ISM Non-Manufacturing – Employment index. The graph below plots this index against a backdrop of recession periods.
A monthly reading above 50 signifies that a majority of those surveyed believe employment conditions are improving. A reading below 50 denotes the majority think employment conditions are worsening. The most recent reading was 49.7 but the three-month average of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment index has yet to break below 50. Historically, each time it has dropped below 50, the U.S. was already in a recession. That said, the three-month average of 51.0 is currently below the three-month average the last two times the U.S. economy entered a recession.
Summary
If C&I loan delinquencies prove, once again, to be a leading signal of employment trends, ensuing job losses will send the BLS employment data and the ISM non-manufacturing employment survey well below levels that, in the past, were recessionary.
Personal consumption represents 70% of GDP, therefore a financially healthy and employed consumer plays an outsized role in swaying economic trends. While the employment picture has generally been improving since the financial crisis/recession of 2008-2009, that improvement is showing signs of faltering. A worsening employment picture has serious implications for GDP growth, increasing concerns we have consistently raised about asset price valuations, which are heavily dependent upon the outlook for economic growth.
- Stunning Emails Reveal How Clinton Foundation Donor Bought Seat As Hillary's Nuclear Weapons Advisor
Forget Hillary’s personal email server: this is what true cronyism and criminal corruption looks like, and this is the biggest threat from a Hillary presidency.
It has been widely speculated, if not proven, that donors to the Clinton Foundation who over the years have transferred hundreds of millions of dollars to the “charitable organization”, bought political favors with the Clintons in exchange for their generosity. That has now been confirmed thanks to a stunning ABC report which reveals how a major foundation donor – one who previously had practically no experience on intellgience matters – mysteriously ended up as a nuclear weapons advisor to Hillary during her tenure as Secretary of State.
Worse, the person in question Rajiv K. Fernando, had been the head of a high frequency trading company, Chopper Trading (recently acquired by HFT powerhouse DRW), which may explain the unprecedented pull of the HFT lobby throughout all ranks of the US political apparatus. In other words, Fernando bought a seat to not only have advance knowledge of all US foreign policy, but to directly shape it, something he could then parlay in the forms of massive policy frontrunning profits thanks to his trading company.
In other words, the appointment qualified Fernando, a trader in the public markets, for one of the highest levels of top secret access.
Just as shocking was the aggressive retaliation with which the State Department tried to cover up the cronyism that literally “bought” Fernando’s seat as one of Hillary’s closest political advisors, and how – as a result of ongoing media pressure – Fernando just as mysteriously resigned only days after his appointment was announced when the State Department was unable to come up with a legitimate reason for him to stay on.
The full shocking story follows, courtesy of ABC.
Newly released State Department emails help reveal how a major Clinton Foundation donor was placed on a sensitive government intelligence advisory board even though he had no obvious experience in the field, a decision that appeared to baffle the department’s professional staff.
The emails further reveal how, after inquiries from ABC News, the Clinton staff sought to “protect the name” of the Secretary, “stall” the ABC News reporter and ultimately accept the resignation of the donor just two days later.
Copies of dozens of internal emails were provided to ABC News by the conservative political group Citizens United, which obtained them under the Freedom of Information Act after more the two years of litigation with the government.
A prolific fundraiser for Democratic candidates and contributor to the Clinton Foundation, who later traveled with Bill Clinton on a trip to Africa, Rajiv K. Fernando’s only known qualification for a seat on the International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) was his technological know-how. The Chicago securities trader, who specialized in electronic investing, sat alongside an august collection of nuclear scientists, former cabinet secretaries and members of Congress to advise Hillary Clinton on the use of tactical nuclear weapons and on other crucial arms control issues.
“We had no idea who he was,” one board member told ABC News.
A State Department photograph shows the 2011 International Security Advisory
Board. Rajiv Fernando is seated on the far left of the imageFernando’s lack of any known background in nuclear security caught the attention of several board members, and when ABC News first contacted the State Department in August 2011 seeking a copy of his resume, the emails show that confusion ensued among the career government officials who work with the advisory panel.
“I have spoken to [State Department official and ISAB Executive Director Richard Hartman] privately, and it appears there is much more to this story that we’re unaware of,” wrote Jamie Mannina, the press aide who fielded the ABC News request. “We must protect the Secretary’s and Under Secretary’s name, as well as the integrity of the Board. I think it’s important to get down to the bottom of this before there’s any response.
“As you can see from the attached, it’s natural to ask how he got onto the board when compared to the rest of the esteemed list of members,” Mannina wrote, referring to an attachment that was not included in the recent document release.
Fernando himself would not answer questions from ABC News in 2011 about what qualified him for a seat on the board or led to his appointment. When ABC News finally caught up with Fernando at the 2012 Democratic convention, he became upset and said he was “not at liberty” to speak about it. Security threatened to have the ABC News reporter arrested.
At the 2012 Democratic Convention, ABC News’ Brian Ross asks Rajiv Fernando
about his 2011 appointment to the State Department’s International Security Advisory Board.Fernando’s expertise appeared to be in the arena of high-frequency trading –– a form of computer-generated stock trading. At the time of his appointment, he headed a firm, Chopper Trading, that was a leader in that field.
Fernando’s history of campaign giving dated back at least to 2003 and was prolific — and almost exclusively to Democrats. He was an early supporter of Hillary Clinton’s 2008 bid for president, giving maximum contributions to her campaign, and to HillPAC, in 2007 and 2008. He also served as a fundraising bundler for Clinton, gathering more than $100,000 from others for her White House bid. After Barack Obama bested Clinton for the 2008 nomination, Fernando became a major fundraiser for the Obama campaign. Prior to his State Department appointment, Fernando had given between $100,000 and $250,000 to the William J. Clinton Foundation, and another $30,000 to a political advocacy group, WomenCount, that indirectly helped Hillary Clinton retire her lingering 2008 campaign debts by renting her campaign email list.
The appointment qualified Fernando for one of the highest levels of top secret access, the emails show. Among those with whom Fernando served on the International Security Advisory Board was David A. Kay, the former head of the Iraq Survey Group and United Nations Chief Weapons Inspector; Lt. Gen. Brent Scowcroft, a former National Security Advisor to two presidents; two former congressmen; and former Sen. Chuck Robb. William Perry, the former Secretary of Defense, chaired the panel.
“It is certainly a serious, knowledgeable and experienced group of experts,” said Bruce Blair, a Princeton professor whose principal research covers the technical and policy steps on the path toward the verifiable elimination of nuclear weapons. “Much of the focus has been on questions of nuclear stability and the risks of nuclear weapons use by Russia and Pakistan.”
The newly released emails reveal that after ABC News started asking questions in August 2011, a State Department official who worked with the advisory board couldn’t immediately come up with a justification for Fernando serving on the panel. His and other emails make repeated references to “S”; ABC News has been told this is a common way to refer to the Secretary of State.
“The true answer is simply that S staff (Cheryl Mills) added him,” wrote Wade Boese, who was Chief of Staff for the Office of the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, in an email to Mannina, the press aide. “Raj was not on the list sent to S; he was added at their insistence.”
Mills, a former deputy White House counsel, was serving as Clinton’s chief of staff at the time, and has been a longtime legal and political advisor.
Four minutes later, Boese wrote to his boss, Richard Hartman, to alert him that Ellen Tauscher, who was then the Undersecretary for State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs, would be meeting with Mills to devise a response to the ABC News request.
“Sorry this has become a headache,” he wrote.
Hartman wrote the next morning to say he would “come up and brief you… about where Raj Fernando stands and the ABC News investigative journalist inquiries. You do need to hear about it.” Separately, in an email to another official, Hartman noted that it was “Cheryl Mills, who added Mr. Fernando’s name to the list of ISAB nominees.”
When ABC News sent a follow-up inquiry about the qualifications of another board appointee, Massachusetts state Rep. Harold P. Naughton, Jr., Boese wrote to Hartman to say the department would have a far easier time explaining Naughton’s credentials. “The case for Rep. Naughton is an easy one. We are on solid ground,” he said.
By this point, Fernando himself had been looped into the discussion. He and Hartman exchanged emails, but the entire text of Fernando’s letter was redacted by the State Department prior to its release.
Twice, Mannina was instructed to stall with ABC News, before Mills sent a public statement. It announced Fernando’s abrupt decision to step down.
“Mr. Fernando chose to resign from the Board earlier this month citing additional time needed to devote to his business,” it reads, noting that membership on the board was required to be “fairly balanced in terms of the points of view represented and the functions to be performed by the advisory committee.”
“As President and CEO of Chopper Trading, Mr. Fernando brought a unique perspective to ISAB. He has years of experience in the private sector in implementing sophisticated risk management tools, information technology and international finance,” the statement says.
The statement was emailed to ABC News two days after Fernando’s resignation and four days after the initial ABC News inquiry.
Fernando’s letter of resignation to Clinton says he “intended to devote a substantial amount of time to the work of ISAB in furtherance of its objectives. However, the unique, unexpected, and excessive volatility in the international markets these last few weeks and months require[d him] to focus [his] energy on the operations of [his] company.”
Additional emails collected from Hillary Clinton’s personal server only hint at her possible involvement in Fernando’s selection to the board. The records request for documents about Fernando’s appointment produced a chain of correspondence from 2010 with the subject line “ISAB” — or International Security Advisory Board. In those, Mills writes, “The secretary had two other names she wanted looked at.” The names are redacted. Mills then forwarded the response to “H,” which is the designation for Clinton’s personal account. Three minutes later Clinton forwards the email chain to another State official and says simply, “Pls print.”
The Clinton campaign declined requests from ABC News to make Mills available for an interview. Campaign spokesman Nick Merrill deferred to the U.S. State Department, which issued a statement saying the board’s charter specifically calls for a membership that reflects “a balance of backgrounds and points of view. Furthermore, it is not unusual for the State Department Chief of Staff to be involved in personnel matters.”
Cheryl Mills, former State Department chief of staff under former Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton, attends a House Select Committee on Benghazi hearing in Washington, Oct. 22, 2015Fernando did not respond to messages left by ABC News at home and mobile numbers listed for Fernando, nor to a letter left at the office of his current business.
As is customary with a new administration, the make-up of the board changed substantially when Clinton took over the State Department, according to Amb. James Woolsey, who served on the panel from 2006 to 2009. But the seriousness of its mission remained the same.
He said the board’s primary purpose was to gather an array of experts on nuclear weapons and arms control to constantly assess and update the nation’s nuclear strategy.
“Most things that involve nuclear weapons and nuclear strategy are dealt with at a pretty sensitive basis — top secret,” he said, noting that participants meet in a secure facility and are restricted in what materials they can discuss.
That is not typically the realm of political donors, Woolsey said. Though, he added, it would not be impossible for someone lacking a security background to make a contribution to the panel. “It would depend on how smart and dedicated this person was… I would think you would have to devote some real time to getting up to speed,” he said.
Fernando is now a board member of a private group called the American Security Project, which describes itself as “a nonpartisan organization created to educate the American public and the world about the changing nature of national security in the 21st Century.” He also identifies himself online as a member of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and says he’s involved with a Washington think tank.
And he continued to donate to Democrats, and to Clinton. He emerged as one of the first “bundlers” to raise money for Clinton’s 2016 bid. And in July 2015, he hosted a fundraiser for Clinton at his Chicago home. Fernando has also continued to donate to the Clinton Foundation. He now is listed on the charity’s website as having given between $1 million and $5 million.
About six months after Fernando resigned from the State Department advisory board, he was invited to attend a White House State Dinner, honoring the British Prime Minister. And this summer Fernando will serve as a super delegate at the Democratic National Convention. According to Chicago media reports, he has committed to supporting Clinton.
* * *
And that, for a mere $1-$5 million sunk cost, one can buy influence, and inside information, which – in this specific case – can then be traded and generate hundreds of millions in profits, an IRR that is too big for Excel to calculate.
The punchline: with thousands of generous Clinton Foundation donating “Fernandos” waiting in the wings, it is only a matter of time before President Clinton’s entire staff is comprised of people who did their math and realized that the US government is merely a means to an end: the end, of course, being to get very, very rich at the expense of the American people whom they – and Hillary – should be serving.
* * *
The following emails were obtained by the conservative political group Citizens United, which obtained them under the Freedom of Information Act, and were provided to ABC News. ABC News has arranged the emails in chronological order. Scroll through the emails below or CLICK HERE to open them in a new window.
- Former Fed President: "All My Very Rich Friends Are Hoarding Cash"
There were numerous interesting, informative and mostly bearish speakers during the latest Strategic Investment Conference held at the end of May. Among them were Lacy Hunt, David Rosenberg, Neil Howe, Jim Grant, Mark Yusko, Gary Shilling, and JohnMauldin (readers can watch video interviews with these speakers on Mauldin Economics’ Youtube channel and their full presentations can be found at the following page) all of whom painted a very pessimistic picture for the stock market but, as Tony Sagami points out, the most alarming comment came from Richard Fisher.
Fisher was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from 2005 to 2015. He was one of, perhaps the only, skeptic on the Fed board going into the great financial crisis, warning on numerous occasions about the upcoming crash only to be ignored by his wiser peers and certainly Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke. He was also ignored in the post-Lehman era by both Bernanke and Janet Yellen.
Among his biggest concerns:
- Government Debt: he is worried about the $19 trillion US government debt (up $11 trillion since 2008) because the Fed has fired all its monetary bullets and can’t expand the balance sheet any further.
- China and social instability: he thinks communist leaders care about production but not efficiency. “They might produce more, but our products work,” jokes Fisher. There are entire cities in China with nobody living in them, according to him. Fisher says the biggest problem in China is social stability. “I’m deeply worried about their ability to maintain social stability,” but… “It doesn’t affect us directly.” Another risk in China is that millions of people are pulling their money out of the country.
- Low interest rates don’t work: “We had a long period of moderation and low interet rares, which did nothing to adjust.” The online countries that adjusted were Poland and Mexico, according to Fisher.
- The failed Brazilian experiment: Fisher said Brazil is a symbol of what’s wrong with emerging markets. They lived through the crisis but learned nothing from it.“Brazil has always been a country with potential, and it’s never been realized.”
- Raising rates is long overdue: he made the point that raising interest rates won’t ruin the economy. “The debt rollover is what we should be worried about. Yet nobody is talking about it.”
- It’s all one big Ponzi scheme: “Our government has to borrow money just to pay interest.” Or as Minsky would say, this is the Ponzi finance stage, just before everything goes to hell. “We have a lot of unsound policy in place. It is agreeable, but in my view, it is unsound.”
- The death of the middle class: Fisher says the lowest income quartile has seen an increase in income. The highest quartile has also seen a massive increase in income. The two middle quartiles were flat over a period of many years. “This is why we have such support for people like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.”
- A ritalin monetary policy: “We have what I call a Ritalin based monetary policy.” Now Janet Yellen’s job is to wean it. “It has to do with taking the distortions out of the financial markets and letting the markets down easier.” “These are the lowest interest rates in 239 years of history.”
But as Sagami points out, Fisher’s most telling comment came during the Q&A session when he was asked how his personal portfolio was positioned. Fisher’s response: “In the fetal position.” Moreover, he also said that “all my very rich friends are hoarding cash.”
Not some, not many. All.
Which, incidentally may explain why as algos levitate markets on ever lower volume (volume which returns with a vengeance on even a moderate selloff such as today’s), “smart money“, insiders, retail investors and foreigners continue to quietly liquidate stocks for weeks on end. While it is unclear who is buying, what is clear is that increasingly more are getting out of risk assets and getting into cash.
For the sake of Fisher’s friends we hope the cash they are hoarding is physical, and not of the electronic variety. After all, as Greece has shown vividly, it would only take the flick of a switch for the government to lock up, or Corzine, some or all of the $10+ trillion in bank deposits. And ultimately, since helicopter money is coming, even that physical cash will soon be worthless courtesy of near-infinite dilute, and the only monetary asset which would survive the hyperinflationary conflagration of the grand reset, is the same precious metals that have preserved their value through over 5,000 years of human stupidity. Which, ironically, reminds us that just because one is rich that does not make them smart..
- Government Failure: Audit Finds FDA's Inadequate Policies Are Leaving The Nation At Risk
If it is ever discovered that tainted food has been released to the public for consumption, it is the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) responsibility to ensure a recall of the product takes place.
In a very disturbing audit finding Wednesday, the Department of Health and Human Services' Office of Inspector General has determined that due to inadequate policies and procedures, the FDA is too slow in ordering companies to recall tainted foods.
Here are some comments from the memo sent to the FDA from the Inspector General regarding the audit findings.
The audit memo opens by stating that the FDA doesn't have an efficient and effective food recall process to ensure the safety of the Nation's food supply.
The purpose of this memorandum is to alert you to a preliminary finding from our ongoing audit of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) food recall program. One of the objectives of our audit is to determine whether FDA has an efficient and effective food recall initiation process that helps ensure the safety of the Nation’s food supply.
We found that FDA did not have an efficient and effective food recall initiation process that helps ensure the safety of the Nation’s food supply. Specifically, FDA did not have policies and procedures to ensure that firms1 or responsible parties2 (collectively referred to in this document as “firms”) initiated voluntary food recalls promptly. This issue is a significant matter and requires FDA’s immediate attention.
Two examples from the findings were specifically called out, with one case being a strain of Salmonella found in nut butter in which 165 days passed before a recall was issued. Another example involved various cheese products in which people became ill from Listeria – 81 days passed before a recall was issued. In that instance, one infant even died.
For all 30 voluntary recalls in our sample, after FDA first became aware that an adulterated or misbranded product could be in the food supply chain, it did not prescribe a timeline for each firm to initiate a recall. For two recalls, the firms did not initiate the recall of all potentially harmful products until 165 days and 81 days after FDA became aware of the potential contaminations. The delays in the firms’ recalls may have occurred because FDA did not have policies and procedures that instruct its recall staff to establish set timeframes for (1) FDA to request that firms voluntarily recall their products and (2) firms to initiate voluntary food recalls. As a result, consumers remained at risk of illness or death for several weeks after FDA knew of potentially hazardous food.
For example:
- In a recall involving nut butter at least 14 people became ill with a strain of Salmonella indistinguishable from or linked to the strain found at the firm’s manufacturing facility. 165 days passed from the date FDA identified the potentially adulterated product and the date the firm initiated a voluntary food recall. See Attachment A for a timeline of events for this recall.
- In a series of recalls involving various cheese products, at least nine people became ill from Listeria monocytogenes, including one infant who died. According to FDA records, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) also linked two fetal losses to these illnesses. 81 days passed from the date FDA became aware of the adulterated product and the date the firm had voluntarily recalled all affected products. See Attachment B for a timeline of events for this recall.
And in conclusion, the memo reiterates its finding that there are inadequate policies in place to take prompt actions in order to initiate a recall, and that consumers remained at risk because of that.
FDA does not have adequate policies and procedures to ensure that firms take prompt and effective action in initiating voluntary food recalls. As a result, consumers remained at risk of illness or death for several weeks after FDA was aware of a potentially hazardous food in the supply chain.
We suggest that FDA revise its policies and procedures to instruct recall staff to establish set timeframes for (1) FDA to request that firms voluntarily recall their products and (2) firms to initiate voluntary food recalls.
* * *
In summary, everyone should feel good about the precision in which the government runs its programs, especially as it relates to the health and safety of an entire nation.
Here is Attachment A, which walks through the timeline for the Salmonella finding.
And attachment B, which walks through the timeline of the Listeria finding.
- A Donald Trump Voter Went To See Him Speak. Protesters Broke His Nose.
Authored by Juan Hernandez, originally posted at The Washington Post
This isn't how politics is supposed to work in the United States.
SANTA CLARA, Calif. — Last Thursday, I left work about 5 p.m. and drove to the San Jose Convention Center to hear Donald Trump speak.
I’ve been voting for conservative candidates for 15 years and a registered Republican since 2015. Now that the general election is underway, I believe Trump is the best candidate to fix our country’s many problems, and I believe he’s going to be the next commander in chief. So I was excited to hear him, and to show my support. Walking into the rally with a friend, I was a little wary: Trump’s speech to the California Republican convention in Burlingame had been disrupted by protesters, and I wasn’t sure whether to expect a similar scene in San Jose. But we got to the event early, and we must have been inside already by the time a crowd of protesters gathered in the streets near the convention center.
The speech really got me energized. I got a new sense of appreciation and respect for Trump after a Bernie Sanders supporter interrupted him with a sign. Trump didn’t blink: “Darling, there’s no way he can win, but keep your sign high,” he said. That is the president that I want. It was great being around so many Republicans — in the Bay Area, we don’t have a lot of that, so it was great to feel the camaraderie of being part of the GOP.
My trouble began once the rally was over.
My friend and I joined a crowd of Trump supporters who had all left the convention center around the same time. The garage where we had parked our car was right next to the building, but police were directing everyone around the block to another garage entrance instead. The farther we walked, the fewer Trump fans were with us — people began peeling off to go to restaurants or bars in the area, or to other garages nearby.
And suddenly, there were protesters everywhere. Some were holding Mexican flags, or burning American ones. They were yelling “F— Trump!” at us and cornering us. Some of them started grabbing Trump supporters — they were going up and slugging people, sucker-punching people, just picking random people out. As much as we wanted to help, because our fellow Republicans were getting hit, I knew any moment that could be me. So my friend and I just kept walking — sometimes, we’d be running. We saw police standing nearby, but they didn’t do anything. That scared me, because I thought, “Okay, if I’m next, there’s going to be no cops.”
About a block from the garage entrance, we turned down the street and found a line of protesters standing in our way. To get back to our car, we’d have to go through them. My friend and I were wearing “Make America Great Again” Trump hats. We were targets, and I was terrified. I could feel it coming — they would look at me and start walking up to me.
Before we could make it into the garage, four or five men surrounded me, and another four surrounded my friend. They just started swinging. We swung back as best as we could. My main thing was I didn’t want to fall; I didn’t want to be knocked down. I’m not a big guy, but I can defend myself as best I can if it’s one on one — but not when they have so much anger against us.
One of the blows caught my nose, and blood just started pouring out. That kind of stunned them, and they backed off a quick second. My adrenaline kicked in; I felt punches on my head, and I felt the punch that hit my nose, but I was in survival mode by then, and I didn’t realize until later how much it hurt. I called my friend, “Okay, let’s go!”
We ran into the parking garage, and we thought we were safe, but there were another few dozen protesters there, too. We got in our car and headed toward the exit. Some protesters jumped on the cars in front of us, but we eventually made it out. My friend drove me to the emergency room because my nose was pouring blood. I had a broken nose, and because I was covered with scratches, I had to get a tetanus shot, too. It took a lot out of me, much more than I realized at first; my headaches and soreness didn’t start to go away until a week later.
I still can’t believe how poorly the police handled the protests. I live by Levi’s Stadium, where the Super Bowl was. They had every single cop out there. Yet knowing the violence that’s been breaking out near Trump rallies, San Jose wasn’t prepared for it last week? So the Los Angeles chapter of Log Cabin Republicans held a news conference back in San Jose on Wednesday, to get some answers from the city’s mayor, Sam Liccardo, and its police department about why they let me and other people get attacked and only made a few arrests.
The whole thing made me angry. Here in Northern California, I feel like I’m a unicorn: I’m a gay Hispanic who’s a Republican. It was much harder to come out as a Trump supporter than it was to come out as gay — the minute you say you’re for Trump, everyone comes at you — but this has pushed me out of the closet about it completely.
I should be able to vote for whom I want, and I shouldn’t have to deal with violence to go hear my candidate speak. If people really want to protest at rallies, they should do it peacefully. I have a young niece and nephew, and I don’t want them to think this is how politics work in the United States. We can’t let our freedom of speech and our freedom of assembly be tarnished by politicians like those in San Jose who do not have our safety at heart.
- Sterling Volatility Explodes To Record High As Brexit Looms
With two polls being unleashed on the markets today indicating the largest lead for Brexit over Bremain yet with regard the UK referendum, it seems FX traders at least have begun to wake up to the short-term uncertainties a "leave" vote may entail. A short-term measure of expected price swings for the pound climbed for a third week as traders sought protection as two-week implied volatility, a period that covers the June 23 voting date, closed at its highest on record today.
With just 13 days left, things are not looking good for Cameron and his cronies…
- U.K. Poll on EU Shows 45% Remain, 55% Leave: ORB/Independent
- "LEAVE" ON 53 PCT, "REMAIN" ON 47 PCT BEFORE BRITAIN'S EU REFERENDUM – SKY NEWS
And it is having an effect…
It seems this "wait til the last minute too panic hedge" behavior is not unusual in the new normal as Credit Suisse describes the same occurred last year in the lead up to Grexit...In the case of Brexit, equity markets waiting until last minute to price in equity risk premium similar to Grexit last year?
If this is anything like the “Grexit” catalyst last year, equity markets may wait until the last minute to price in the appropriate risk premium.
As you can see from the EFA vol chart below, even though “Grexit” was a well-known and well-anticipated catalyst last year, EFA 1M implied vol was still trading as low as 11.7% the week before Greece’s June 30th IMF repayment deadline.
EFA 1M implied vol ended up surging 8 vol pts in the final week before the deadline and another 3 vol pts after a surprise referendum was called over the July 4th weekend last year.
And it wasn’t just EFA. VIX also didn’t start reacting to “Grexit” risk until the final week when it jumped from 12 to 19.
Will the same thing happen this time? If so, I think it makes sense to hedge now when you can (and when it’s cheap!), not when you have to in the final days before the deadline when implied vols will have already climbed higher.
Is this merely another symptom of the now deeply embedded belief that markets are invincible thanks to The Central Bank Put? Why hedge? Why reduce exposure? When you know… because The Fed promised… that if stocks fall, they will magically levitated to confirm that all is well and the central planners are in control. But, as Charles Hugh-Smith recently noted, by making the stock market the only game in town, the Powers That Be can no longer afford to let it decline for any reason…
This new rule simplifies trading, confidence and sentiment: Bulls can now relax, knowing that the market will never be allowed to decline. Sentiment can stay pegged at "extreme greed" forever, and there is no longer any need to hedge long positions because markets will only move higher.
Volatility will drift lower because any decline will be mere signal noise, only of interest to high-frequency trading (HFT) machines skimming pennies.
Too much is riding on stocks to let them drift lower. The stock market is not only the critical signaling device that tells the world all is well and everything is getting better every day, in every way, it's also the collateral for all sorts of highly profitable schemes, and the financial foundation of the institutions that are supposed to fund pensions and fulfill insurance redemptions.
And even more important, the stock market is the money machine that enables CEOs and top management to push their stocks higher with buy-backs and then cash out their personal stock options for glorious millions.
By making the stock market the only game in town, the Powers That Be can no longer afford to let it decline for any reason: technical, fundamental, quantitative, it no longer matters–stocks must drift higher forever without disruption.
This is what happens when you strip out volatility and game the system: the system loses all natural resiliency and becomes increasingly brittle and fragile. The only way to make sure it doesn't tremble and shatter into pieces is to guarantee that no decline will be allowed.
Of course then you don't have a market–you have a simulacrum market, a phony fragile shell propped up for PR purposes.
That is until the powers that be allow a nation to exercise their own sovereignty, to vote not for a centralized totalitarian state but for democracy and the right to freely crash their economy (if Osborne and Cameron are to be believed). Will a Brexit vote be allowed to spoil the party? Perhaps an increasing number of Brits have had enough of 'Project Fear' and are uninterested in what the US president's view on their freedom is…
- Gawker Files For Bankruptcy
Moments ago the financially challenged tabloid nemesis of Peter Thiel, Nick Denton’s Gawker Media, filed for bankrutpcy – an outcome predicted by many as inevitable – listing assets between $50 and $100 million, and liabilities between $100 and $500 million.
No matter on which side of the Thiel-Denton debate one sides, we doubt many tears will be shed as yet another chapter in “new media” comes to a close.
The WSJ adds that the company will be put for sale in bankruptcy auction, which will begin with an opening bid of $100 million from the digital media company and publisher Ziff Davis LLC, according to a person familiar with the matter. The sale was triggered after the judge overseeing the invasion-of-privacy case brought by Hulk Hogan—whose real name is Terry Bollea—declined to issue a stay pending Gawker’s appeal. That required the company to put up a $50 million bond.
Why is the company filing now? Simple: to make Hulk Hogan’s aka Terry Bollea’s $130 million claim part of the prepetition, unsecured liabiltiies.
“Whatcha gonna do when Chapter 11 runs wild on you”
Proceeds from a sale will go into a fund to finance further litigation costs and cover whatever damages may ultimately be leveled following the appeals process, which could take years to resolve. Gawker has said that it expects to ultimately prevail.
Whatever money is left at the end of the legal process will go to Nick Denton, Gawker’s founder who owns most of the company, and other shareholders. Earlier this year, Columbus Nova Technology Partners took an undisclosed minority stake in the media company as it shored up its books for the trial.
Full filing below:
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