Today’s News 12th February 2021

• Great Reset? Putin Says, "Not So Fast"
  Great Reset? Putin Says, “Not So Fast”

  Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

  Did you happen to catch the most important political speech of the last six years?

  

  It would have been easy to miss given everything going on.  In fact, I almost did, and this speech sits at the intersection of nearly all of my areas of intense study.

  The annual World Economic Forum took place last week via teleconference, what I’m calling Virtual Davos, and at this year’s event, of course, the signature topic was their project called the Great Reset.

  But if the WEF was so intent on presenting the best face for the Great Reset to the world it wouldn’t have invited either Chinese Premier Xi Jinping or, more importantly, Russian President Vladimir Putin.

  And it was Putin’s speech that brought down the house of cards that is the agenda of the WEF.

  The last time someone walked into a major international forum and issued such a scathing critique of the current geopolitical landscape was Putin’s speech to the United Nations on September 29th, 2015, two days before he sent a small contingency of Russian air support to Syria.

  There he excoriated not only the U.N. by name but most importantly the U.S. and its NATO allies by inference asking the most salient question, “Do you understand what you have done?” having unleashed chaos in an already chaotic part of the world?

  As important as that speech was it was Putin’s actions after that which defined the current era of geopolitical chess across the Eurasian continent.   Syria became the nexus around which the resistance to the “ISIS is invincible” narrative unraveled

  And the mystery of who was behind ISIS, namely the Obama administration, was revealed to anyone paying attention.

  President Trump may have taken credit for beating ISIS, but it was mostly Putin and Russia’s forces retaking the Western part of Syria which allowed that to happen, while our globalist generals, like James Mattis, did as much damage to Syria itself and as little to ISIS as possible, hoping to use them again another day.

  And regardless of whether you agree or disagree with the U.S.’s policy in Syria, which I most definitely do not, it is hard to argue that Russia’s intervention there fundamentally changed the regional politics and conflicts for the foreseeable future.

  It was the beginning of the voluntary disconnection of China, Russia and Iran from the West.

  For standing athwart U.S. and European designs on consolidating power in the Middle East, Russia has been vilified in the West in ways that make the indoctrination I received as a kid growing up in the Cold War look like vacation advertisements for spending the summer in Crimea.

  But it is that strength of purpose and character that has defined Putin’s two decades in power. He’s done wonders in rebuilding Russia. 

  He’s made many mistakes, mostly by first trusting American Presidents and second by underestimating just how arrogant and rapacious the leadership in Europe is.  

  That said, he’s now reached his limit, especially with Europe, and he’s set a firmly independent path for Russia regardless of the short-term costs.

  And that’s why his speech at the World Economic Forum was so important. 

  Putin hadn’t spoken there for nearly a decade.  In a time when WEF-controlled puppets dominate positions of power in Europe, the U.K., Canada and now the U.S., Putin walked into Virtual Davos and dumped his coffee on the carpet.

  

  In terms I can only describe as unfailingly polite, Putin told Klaus Schwab and the WEF that their entire idea of the Great Reset is not only doomed to failure but runs counter to everything modern leadership should be pursuing.

  Putin literally laughed at the idea of the Fourth Industrial Revolution – Schwab’s idea of a planned society through AI, robots and the merging of man and machine. 

  He flat-out told them their policies driving the middle class to the brink of extinction over the COVID-19 pandemic will further increase social and political unrest while also ensuring wealth inequality gets worse.

  Putin’s no flower-throwing libertarian or anything, but his critique of the hyper-financialized post-Soviet era is accurate. 

  The era dominated by central banking and the continued merging of state and corporate powers has increased wealth inequality across the U.S. and Europe, benefiting millions while extracting the wealth of billions.

  Listening to Putin was like listening to a cross between Pat Buchanan and the late Walter Williams.  According to him the neoliberal ideal of “invite the world/invade the world” has destroyed the cultural ties within countries while hollowing out their economic prospects.  Putin criticized zero-bound interest rates, QE, tariffs and sanctions as political weapons.

  But the targets of those weapons, while nominally pointed at his Russia, were really the West’s own engines of vitality, as the middle classes have seen their wages stagnate, and access to education, medical care, and the courts to redress grievances fall dramatically.

  Russia is a country on the rise, so is China.  Once their ties are embedded deeply enough to stabilize its economy, so too will Iran rise.

  Together they will lead the central Asian landmass out of the nineteenth-century quagmire that exists thanks to British and American intervention in the region.  Putin’s speech made it clear that Russia is committed to the process of finding solutions to all people benefiting from the future, not just a few thousand holier-than-thou oligarchs in Europe.

  In a less confrontational address, Chairman Xi said the same thing. 

  He gave lip service, like Putin, to climate change and carbon neutrality, focusing instead on pollution and sustainability. 

  Together they basically told the WEF to stuff the Great Reset back into the hole in which it was conceived. 

  I’ve followed Putin closely for nearly a decade now.  I got the feeling that if he was speaking to a college-level political science class and not a convocation of some of the most powerful people in the world he would been laughed in their faces.

  But, unfortunately, he understands better than any of us having been the object of their aggression for so long, he had to treat them seriously as their grasp of reality and connectedness to the people they ruled was nearly severed.

  At the end of his planned remarks, Klaus Schwab asked Putin about Russia’s troubled relationship with Europe and could it be fixed.  Putin pulled no punches. 

  If we can rise above these problems of the past and get rid of these phobias, then we will certainly enjoy a positive stage in our relations.

  We are ready for this, we want this, and we will strive to make this happen. But love is impossible if it is declared only by one side. It must be mutual.

  I don’t get the sense from anything I’ve seen from the Biden Administration or the European Commission in Brussels that anyone heard a word he said.

  *  *  *

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  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 23:50

• House Panel Advances Stimulus: Approves $1,400 Payments, Personal Tax Credits, Loans For Insolvent Pensions
  House Panel Advances Stimulus: Approves $1,400 Payments, Personal Tax Credits, Loans For Insolvent Pensions

  On Thursday we noted that the biggest winners from the upcoming $1.9 trillion stimulus would be a family of four making up to $150,000 per year, which would entitle them to $12,800 in federal income support over the next 15 months.

  

  Part of this is of course the $1,400 (not $2,000) in direct payments – which just cleared a key hurdle on Thursday when the House Ways and Means Committee passed legislation which also included tax credits for children that will be sent to households on a monthly basis, according to Bloomberg.

  “The $600 rebates that Congress delivered in December didn’t do enough,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-WA) during the Ways and Means Committee debate on Thursday. “This is critical relief to help families weather this crisis.”

  The measures, which passed along party lines 24-18, were just one component of different elements of the Biden stimulus, while eleven other House committees are working on their own measures for the package which are slated for completion on Friday – with the full house voting the week of Feb. 22 on the overall package.

  Democrats eventually want the monthly tax-credit payments to become a permanent annual feature in future legislation.

  

  Meanwhile, low-income workers and families footing the bill for childcare or adult care will receive expanded tax credits, while benefits for health care and paid sick leave will also receive a boost, along with employers – who will receive extended incentives to keep workers employed.

  Democrats say the payments are critical to help bolster household income amid the elevated unemployment rate and additional costs burdening American families. Republicans have criticized the proposal, saying it includes many items Democrats have championed before the pandemic and that many higher-income households that aren’t struggling would benefit.

  The Internal Revenue Service is planning to issue the stimulus payments as quickly as possible if the legislation is signed into law.

  Households would get the child tax credit in the form of a $300 a month payment for children five and under or $250 a month for those six and older starting in July. That amounts to a $3,600 benefit for younger children or $3,000 for older ones — an increase from the current $2,000 maximum credit. The tax break is currently paid out as a tax refund, rather than in monthly payments. –Bloomberg

  Households making up to $91,000 per year will receive approximately two-thirds of the benefits, according to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, while around 11% would go to the top 20% of taxpayers – those making $164,000 or more.

  In addition, multi-employer pension plans on the verge of collapse would be bailed out under the House-approved legislation – allowing for insolvent plans which have collective bargaining agreements to obtain loans in order to maintain distributions.

  Single-employer pensions, meanwhile, will receive more time to make up losses – and will receive a few new loopholes to calculate their liabilities, “which are inflated while interest rates remain low,” according to the report.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 23:30

• Troop Deployments In Washington Are A Disaster Waiting To Happen
  Troop Deployments In Washington Are A Disaster Waiting To Happen

  Authored by James Bovard via The Mises Institute,

  “Tyranny in form is the first step towards tyranny in substance,” warned Senator John Taylor two hundred years ago in his forgotten classic, Tyranny Unmasked. As the massive National Guard troop deployment in Washington enters its second month, much of the media and many members of Congress are thrilled that it will extend until at least mid-March. But Americans would be wise to recognize the growing perils of the militarization of American political disputes.

  

  The military occupation of Washington was prompted by the January 6 clashes at the Capitol between Trump supporters and law enforcement, in which three people (including one Capitol policeman) died as a result of the violence. Roughly eight hundred protestors and others unlawfully entered the Capitol, though many of them entered nonviolently through open doors and most left without incident hours later.

  The federal government responded by deploying twenty-five thousand National Guard troops to prevent problems during President Joe Biden’s swearing-in—the first inauguration since 1865 featuring the capital city packed with armed soldiers. Protests were almost completely banned in Washington for the inauguration.

  Instead of ending after the muted inauguration celebration, the troop deployment was extended for the Senate impeachment trial.

  Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) declared:

  “So long as Donald Trump is empowered by Senate Republicans, there is still the chance that he is going to incite another attempt at the Capitol.”

  But the Senate vote on Senator Rand Paul’s (R-KY) motion labeling the trial as unconstitutional signaled that the trial will be anticlimactic because Trump is unlikely to be convicted. The actual trial may be little more than a series of pratfalls, alternating between histrionic Democratic House members and wild-swinging, table-pounding Trump lawyers. A pointless deluge of political vitriol will make a mockery of Biden’s calls for national unity.

  Then the troop deployment was extended into at least mid-March because of unidentified threats made to members of Congress. Acting Army Secretary John Whitley announced last week:

  “There are several upcoming events—we don’t know what they are—over the next several weeks, and they’re concerned that there could be situations where there are lawful protests, First Amendment–protected protests, that could either be used by malicious actors, or other problems that could emerge.”

  “We don’t know what they are” but somebody heard something somewhere, so the military deployment will continue. Threats have occurred in waves toward members of Congress at least since the farm crisis of the 1980s, but prior menacing did not result in the occupation of the capital city.

  Perpetuating the troop deployment is also being justified by melodramatic revisionism. In congressional testimony last week, Capitol Police acting chief Yogananda Pittman described the January 6 clash at the Capitol as “a terrorist attack by tens of thousands of insurrectionists.” Apparently, anyone who tromped from the scene of Trump’s ludicrous “I won by a landslide” spiel to the Capitol was a terrorist, or at least an “insurrectionist” (which is simply “terrorist” spelled with more letters). Is “walking on the Mall with bad thoughts” sufficient to get classified as a terrorist in the Biden era? 

  Placing thousands of troops on the streets of the nation’s capital could be a ticking time bomb. The longer the National Guard is deployed in Washington, the greater the peril of a Kent State–caliber catastrophe. The Ohio National Guard’s volley of fire in 1970 that killed four students and wounded nine others was a defining moment for the Vietnam era. 

  Forty years later, the Cleveland Plain Dealer published an investigation of the Kent State shooting based on new analyses of audio recordings from the scene. The Plain Dealer concluded that an FBI informant who was photographing student protestors fired four shots from his .38-caliber revolver after students began threatening him. That gunfire started barely a minute before the Ohio National Guard opened fire. Gunshots from the FBI informant apparently spooked guard commanders into believing they were taking sniper fire, spurring the order to shoot students. The informant denied having fired, but witnesses testified differently. (The FBI hustled the informant from the scene and he later became an undercover narcotics cop in Washington, DC.) Though there is no evidence that the FBI sought to provoke carnage at Kent State, FBI agents involved in COINTELPRO (the Counterintelligence Program) in the 1960s and 1970s boasted of “false flag” operations which provoked killings.

  If some malicious group wanted to plunge this nation into chaos and fear, National Guard troops at a checkpoint would be an easy target—at least for the first moments after they were fired upon (most of the troops do not have ammo magazines in their rifles). The sweeping reaction to January 6 might be far surpassed if troops are gunned down regardless of whether the culprits were right-wing extremists, Antifa, or foreign infiltrators. An attack on the troops would likely perpetuate the military occupation and potentially spur Biden to declare martial law.

  Last spring, when riots erupted after the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, President Trump warned that “the Federal Government will step in and do what has to be done, and that includes using the unlimited power of our Military and many arrests.”

  Many activists were justifiably appalled at the specter of Trump seizing dictatorial power over areas wracked by violent protests.

  But the danger remains regardless of who is president.

  Martial law is the ultimate revocation of constitutional rights: anyone who disobeys soldiers’ orders can be shot. There are plenty of malevolent actors here and abroad who would relish seeing martial law declared in Washington, the paramount disgrace for the world’s proudest democracy.

  Unfortunately, Biden would have plenty of support initially if he proclaimed that violence in Washington required him to declare martial law. As the Washington Post noted in 2018, a public opinion poll showed that 25 percent of Americans believed “a military takeover was justified if there were widespread corruption or crime.” The Journal of Democracy reported that polls showed that only 19 percent of Millennials in the US believed that it would be illegitimate “in a democracy for the military to take over when the government is incompetent or failing to do its job.” But trusting to military rule for Millennial wish fulfillment would be the biggest folly of them all. Support for martial law is the ultimate proof of declining political literacy in this nation.

  Regardless of the risks, some politicians are clinging to the presence of the troops in Washington like Linus clutching his “security blanket” in a Peanuts cartoon. Will we now see regular alarms from a long series of politicians and political appointees working to “keep up the fear”?

  History is littered with stories of nations scourged by “temporary” martial law that perpetuated itself. Anyone who believes America is immune should recall Senator Taylor’s 1821 warning against presuming “our good theoretical system of government is a sufficient security against actual tyranny.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 23:10

• Kalashnikov Makes Gadget-Packed Shotgun For "Hipsters" 
  Kalashnikov Makes Gadget-Packed Shotgun For “Hipsters” 

  The American-made Standard Manufacturing DP-12 is a modern bullpup pump-action shotgun that looks and feels like a futuristic weapon but lacks high-tech systems embedded within the firearm. That’s where Russia comes in, with legendary Kalashnikov Group, now planning to manufacture a “gadget-packed shotgun” for hipsters. 

  According to AFP, Kalashnikov, the AK-47 assault rifle maker, has developed and is set to series manufacture a semi-automatic 12-gauge shotgun called the “MP-155 Ultima.” The high-tech shotgun features a built-in computer that teaches users how to become better shooters. 

  

  “It’s the first gadget weapon. The task is to attract that part of the audience who was born with gadgets and cannot imagine themselves without them,” Kalashnikov’s director Dmitry Tarasov told RBK business daily.

  “Classic hunting today is becoming more rare, even outlandish. Therefore, I would like to involve … hipsters, Generation Z,” Tarasov said, referring to those born from the mid-1990s onwards.

  “I really want people to own weapons responsibly and at the same time get a kick out of it,” he added. 

  The MP-155 Ultima will retail for 100,000 roubles ($1,354) or about the same cost as an American-made DP-12. 

  “It can be adapted with gadgets including a compass and a video camera,” Tarasov said.

  … and perhaps all it will take to get the younger generation into firearms is add a computer chip to it. 

  Though we must say, youngsters are more intrigued by printing their own guns. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 22:50

• Big Brother Is Spying On You In Thousands Of Ways, And All Of That Info Now Goes Into Centralized "Fusion Systems"
  Big Brother Is Spying On You In Thousands Of Ways, And All Of That Info Now Goes Into Centralized “Fusion Systems”

  Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

  Big Brother is watching you.  Sadly, most people don’t realize how extensive the surveillance grid has now become.  As you drive to work or to school, license plate readers are systematically tracking where you travel.  In major cities, thousands of highly advanced security cameras (many equipped with facial recognition technology) are monitoring your every move.  If authorities detect that you are doing something suspicious, they can quickly pull up your criminal, financial and medical records.  Of course if they want to dig deeper, your phone and your computer are constantly producing a treasure trove of surveillance data.  Nothing that you do on either one of them is ever private.

  

  In the past, compiling all of that information would take a great deal of time.  But now tech giants such as Microsoft, Motorola, Cisco and Palantir are selling “fusion systems” to governments all over the planet.  These “fusion systems” can instantly integrate surveillance data from thousands of different sources, and this has totally transformed how law enforcement is conducted in many of our largest cities.

  Arthur Holland Michel is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs, and he was given a tour of a “fusion system” that is used by the city of Chicago called Citigraf…

  He clicked “INVESTIGATE,” and Citigraf got to work on the reported assault. The software runs on what Genetec calls a “correlation engine,” a suite of algorithms that trawl through a city’s historical police records and live sensor feeds, looking for patterns and connections. Seconds later, a long list of possible leads appeared onscreen, including a lineup of individuals previously arrested in the neighborhood for violent crimes, the home addresses of parolees living nearby, a catalog of similar recent 911 calls, photographs and license plate numbers of vehicles that had been detected speeding away from the scene, and video feeds from any cameras that might have picked up evidence of the crime itself, including those mounted on passing buses and trains. More than enough information, in other words, for an officer to respond to that original 911 call with a nearly telepathic sense of what has just unfolded.

  But these systems are not just used to track down criminals.

  In fact, they can be used to investigate literally anyone.

  On another occasion, Arthur Holland Michel got the opportunity to test out the “fusion system” that Microsoft had built for New York City…

  The NYPD official showed me how he could pull up any city resident’s rap sheet, lists of their known associates, cases in which they were named as a victim of a crime or as a witness, and, if they had a car, a heatmap of where they tended to drive and a full history of their parking violations. Then he handed me the phone. Go ahead, he said; search a name.

  A flurry of people came to mind: Friends. Lovers. Enemies. In the end, I chose the victim of a shooting I’d witnessed in Brooklyn a couple of years earlier. He popped right up, along with what felt like more personal information than I, or even perhaps a curious officer, had any right to know without a court order. Feeling a little dizzy, I gave the phone back.

  If this is what is going on in major cities such as Chicago and New York, can you imagine the technology that the alphabet agencies of the federal government must now possess?

  Of course this isn’t just happening in the United States.

  On the other side of the Atlantic, a joint European surveillance project known as ROXANNE is causing a great deal of concern…

  An acronym for Real time netwOrk, teXt, and speaker ANalytics for combating orgaNized crimE, it was announced in November the Republic’s involvement in the project currently being developed in Switzerland.

  A biometrics based platform ostensibly to monitor and crack down on organised crime, an additional application of ROXANNE which its creators advertise freely is the ability to monitor those guilty of alleged hate speech and political extremism.

  Strict new laws against “hate speech” and “political extremism” are being instituted all over Europe, and this new tool will help to track down “thought criminals”.

  In particular, this new tool will be heavily monitoring “social media sites such as Facebook, YouTube as well as normal telecommunications platforms”…

  A product of the EU funded Horizon 2020 to foster new surveillance technology, ROXANNE works across social media sites such as Facebook, YouTube as well as normal telecommunications platforms to identify, categorise, and track faces and voices enabling authorities to paint a more in depth picture of the network being investigated, whether it be in relation to criminal activity or those deemed politically extreme.

  Enabling authorities to draw on raw data from a variety of sources and platforms in order to recognise common speech patterns, facial features, and geolocation, the end result is both to identify suspects and paint an intricate picture of the networks being put under the microscope.

  So if you live in Europe and you think that you might be guilty of “thought crime” at some point, you might want to get rid of your phone and your computer.

  Seriously.

  Things really have gotten that bad over there, and it is just a matter of time before the madness gets to the same level in the United States, because we are going down the exact same road.

  Here in the U.S., more political voices are being “deplatformed” with each passing day.  Progressive reporter Jordan Chariton originally cheered when conservatives were being deplatformed, but at this point he regrets his calls for censorship now that YouTube has taken down one of his videos…

  However, after YouTube pulled video from his own channel featuring footage of the January 6 riot for violating the platform’s policies against “spam and deceptive practices,” the Chariton reversed his position.

  “With time to reflect, & seeing Silicon Valley’s censorship onslaught, I regret this tweet made in [the] heat of moment,” the progressive journalist wrote. “Whether certain cable/YouTube outlets mislead audiences w/ dishonest claims lacking real evidence, they shouldn’t be targeted.”

  It is all fun and games when it is happening to “the other side”, but when it happens to you suddenly it becomes real.

  They really do want to control what all of us do, say and think, and the Big Brother surveillance grid is becoming more suffocating with each passing year.

  If we do not put limits on this technology while we still can, it is just a matter of time before our society becomes a dystopian nightmare far more horrible than anything than George Orwell ever dared to imagine.

  *  *  *

  Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 22:30

• Supreme Court To Decide Whether Police Can Enter Homes Without Warrant To Seize Guns
  Supreme Court To Decide Whether Police Can Enter Homes Without Warrant To Seize Guns

  The US Supreme Court is set to rule on a Fourth Amendment case which will determine whether police or any other government official can enter one’s home with a warrant to seize guns under limited exceptions.

  The Fourth Amendment protects citizens from unreasonable searches and seizures, and requires authorities obtain a search warrant supported by probable cause.

  

  There are a few limited exceptions to this right, according to Forbes contributor Evan Gerstmann:

  There is an “exigent circumstances” exception. If a police officer looks through a home’s window and sees a person about to stab another person, the officer can burst through the door to prevent the attack. There is also the “emergency aid” exception. If the officer looked through the same window and saw the resident collapsing from an apparent heart attack, the officer could run into the house to administer aid. Neither of these cases violates the Fourth Amendment and few would argue that it should be otherwise. 

  However, there is a broader cousin to these exceptions called the “community caretaking” exception. It derives from a case in which the police took a gun out of the trunk of an impounded vehicle without first obtaining a warrant.

   The Supreme Court previously held that there is a community caretaking exception since police perform “community caretaking functions, totally divorced from the detection, investigation, or acquisition of evidence relating to the violation of a criminal statute,” and that police activity conducted under this exception don’t violate the Fourth Amendment as long as they are done in a “reasonable” manner.

  Notably, the community caretaking exception isn’t limited to immediate emergencies like the first two exceptions.

  All three exceptions allow for warrantless searches as long as an officer acts “reasonably,” a legal standard which is ‘significantly lower’ than “probable cause,” which is required to obtain a warrant, according to the report.

  “As long as an officer might reasonably think that a warrantless search will alleviate a danger to the community, the search is considered constitutional.” -Forbes

  Now, the Supreme Court has announced that it will hear arguments next month in Caniglia v. Strom, in which Mr. Caniglia was arguing with his wife, when he placed an unloaded gun on the table and told her to “shoot me now and get it over with.”

  His wife called a non-emergency police line, resulting in several officers being dispatched to the residence. The police disagreed over whether MCaniglia was acting “normal” or “agitated,” but he agreed to go to a local hospital for evaluation via ambulance. While en route, his wife told police that he kept two handguns in the house – prompting the officers to search his home without obtaining a warrant.

  

  According to Forbes, Mrs. Caniglia’s consent to have the police search their home was legally negated “because the police untruthfully told her that her husband had consented to the seizure of any guns.”. Mr. Caniglia sued the police, claiming a violation of his Fourth Amendment right to privacy as well as his Second Amendment right to keep handguns in the home for self-protection.

  The case has worked its way through the legal system, finally ending up at the Supreme Court:

  The 1st Circuit Court of Appeals (which is the federal court just below the Supreme Court in Caniglia’s jurisdiction) sided with the police. The court wrote: “At its core, the community caretaking doctrine is designed to give police elbow room to take appropriate action when unforeseen circumstances present some transient hazard that requires immediate attention. Understanding the core purpose of the doctrine leads inexorably to the conclusion that it should not be limited to the motor vehicle context. Threats to individual and community safety are not confined to the highways.”

  It is certainly true that the police need a good deal of discretion in carrying out their varied, complex, and sometimes dangerous duties. But they are also powerful agents of the government and their power is supposed to be restrained by the Bill of Rights. The Fourth Amendment is supposed to protect the home above all other places. And whatever one’s views on gun control may be, the Supreme Court has clearly held that the right to keep handguns in the home is at the core of the Second Amendment. -Forbes

  Gerstmann makes a great point – that unlike “exigent circumstances” and “emergency aid” exceptions, the “community caretaking” exemption is not limited to time-sensitive circumstances where there is no time to apply for a warrant.

  “The question of what sort of caretaking falls under this exception is extremely vague. Will the police be able to use it, for example, to conduct warrantless searches of political protesters’ homes to make sure they aren’t planning on violent behavior at their next political rally?“

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 22:10

• Panic Across The Plains States As Nat Gas Prices Explodes To $80
  Panic Across The Plains States As Nat Gas Prices Explodes To $80

  One look at the price of nat gas in the central states and you’d think it was a pennystock with a 1000% short interest: behold the price of Southern Star nat gas spot (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas). It just hit $38 and is normally $2. Other spot prices for the same region are more than twice as high as we explain below.

  

  Why the stratospheric increase in prices?

  As S&P Global Platts explains, the Midcontinent led the surge in US gas prices in Feb. 11 trading as a sharp rise in heating demand met a sudden collapse in supply due to regional production freeze-offs, significantly tightening balances across the much of the Central US, where many places found themselves with virtually no nat gas.

  In morning trading, cash prices at hubs in Kansas, Oklahoma and eastern Arkansas hit levels not seen since 2014, with select locations hitting record highs, ICE data showed.

  At One Oak Gas Transmission, Southern Star and Enable Gas, spot prices reached record highs around $85, $45 and $30/MMBtu, respectively.

  

  At other hubs, including ANR Oklahoma, Panhandle and NGPL Midcontinent, prices hit their highest in seven years, topping $16, $14 and $12/MMBtu, respectively.

  

  The culprit behind this unprecedented supply/demand imbalance: freezing cold.  During the upcoming holiday weekend, the Midcontinent population-weighted temperature is forecast to dip below 0 degrees Fahrenheit before slowly thawing to above freezing by the following weekend.

  

  As heating demand from homes and businesses rises, topping 5 Bcf/d on Feb. 11, colder temperatures have also prompted wellhead freeze-offs, cutting production receipts just when they’re most needed. Mid-continent gas production was estimated at 5.5 Bcf/d, down about 800 MMcf/d, or 13%, compared with the prior 30-day average, S&P Global Platts Analytics data shows.

  So as regional production gets squeezed and hub prices rise, Midcon markets have sharply reduced net gas transmissions to neighboring markets – most notably Texas and the Southeast. On Feb. 11, net volumes leaving the Midcon fell by a whopping 90% to about 335 MMcf/d – down from an average 2.9 Bcf/d in the 30-days prior.

  Other markets across the US – particularly those supplied by the Midcon – saw a similar, though less pronounced, uptick in gas prices in Feb. 11 trading.

  

  Texas

  In neighboring Texas, the cash price for Houston Ship Channel increased $6.26/MMBtu on the day to $10.796/MMBtu – its highest level since July 2008. Across the state, the population-weighted average temperature is expected to fall from 15 degrees F below normal Feb. 11 to 37 F below normal by Feb.15, Platts Analytics data showed.

  Texas demand sat at 15.5 Bcf on Feb. 11 and was forecast to tick higher to 23.6 Bcf as temperatures continue to fall. As Texas keeps more gas at home to meet the higher demand, net outflows fell by 1 Bcf on Feb. 11 to 10.6 Bcf/d.

  Rockies & West

  Spot gas prices in the Rockies soared to levels rarely seen in the last 10 years. Cheyenne Hub was trading $9.07 higher at $14.70/MMBtu – the highest price since February 2014. CIG, Rockies saw a similar upward trajectory, trading $8.45 higher to $13.28/MMBtu.

  Heightened demand for Rockies gas in other regions comes just as local demand hits seasonal highs. The average temperature in the Rockies was forecast to fall to 19 F on Feb. 12, plunging to 6 F on Feb. 14. Frigid temperatures pose additional upside risk for prices amid possible production freeze-offs. Cash gas prices in the Permian Basin, another production region which has seen increased competition for supply, also surged in Feb. 11 trading. Waha Hub was trading $5.88 higher at $10.42/MMBtu – also the location’s highest since February 2014.

  Midwest

  Prices gains in the upper Midwest were muted in comparison to the Midcontinent. At Chicago city-gates, prices spiked to new highs reaching $8.11/MMBtu, up $4.13 from the day prior, to its highest level since March 2019. The spread between Chicago city-gates and Henry Hub reached a $2.19 premium, the first time a premium has been this high since January 2019, S&P Global Platts data showed.

  Across the entire central US, including the Midcon and Upper Midwest, demand is projected to hit 49.5 Bcf/d on Feb. 15, an all-time high since Platts began recording data in 2005. Heating demand, meanwhile, is expected to reach its highest level since 2019 at 42.5 Bcf/d, about 29 Bcf higher than the five-year average, analytics data shows.

  Northeast

  Historically the most volatile region for gas prices, the Northeast remained comparatively insulated from the Feb. 11 market surge. At Algonquin city gates, prices rose $1.57 to $12.67/MMBtu; Iroquois Zone 2 rose $2.12 to $12.49/MMBtu. Both locations marked their highest prices since December 2019. According to the US National Weather Service, Boston temperatures are expected to reach a low of 11 degrees F on Feb. 12, while New York City temperatures are forecast to reach a low of 21 F – both adding upward pressure to gas prices on the day.

  Frigid weather is expected to persist throughout the next week, continuing to evaporate storage inventories and likely keeping spot gas prices elevated across the region.

  * * *

  Needless to say, if anyone was short any midcontinent nat gas,  they just experienced a short squeeze orders of magnitude worse than the one that almost destroyed Melvin Capital. May they rest in peace.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 21:50

• 9 Things Cannabis Investors Should Know In 2021
  9 Things Cannabis Investors Should Know In 2021

  Unlike dozens of other industries across the globe, cannabis experienced significant growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in recent days has seen a renewed trading interest, thanks to WallStreetBets.

  In fact, as Visual Capitalist’s Katie Jones notes, with consumption for both medical and recreational products on the rise, 2020 was a record-breaking year for the industry.

  After years of investor uncertainty, analysts are predicting a continued bull market in 2021, with several new and exciting developments on the horizon.

  

  Here are nine things cannabis investors need to know.

  1. Cannabis Stocks on the Rise

  While asset prices took a dip during the initial stage of the COVID-19 outbreak in March, the cannabis sector recovered swiftly after reporting impressive numbers.

  Even though cannabis investors have experienced some ups and downs in the last several years, 2021 looks more hopeful.

  2. COVID-19 and Cannabis

  Cannabis has become an attractive option for people spending more time at home, both as a means of entertainment, and to reduce stress and anxiety associated with the pandemic.

  As a result, cannabis sales are soaring. In Canada, monthly sales reached an all-time high of $270 million (CAD) in October 2020, a dramatic increase from $180 million just six months earlier.

  3. Cannabis Black Market No More?

  For millions of U.S. citizens who live in states where the sale of cannabis is still restricted, the illicit market continues to be their only option.

  But with loosening restrictions and legal cannabis becoming more widely available, legal sales are predicted to reach $50 billion by 2026 while illegal sales will plummet to less than $1 billion by the same year.

  

   

  4. Political Change Driving Market Growth

   

  Almost 70% of Americans now support the full legalization of cannabis—the highest figure ever recorded.

  States where cannabis is legal are now paving the way for cannabis sales, with California expected to pull in over $6 billion by 2021 alone. If federal legalization comes to fruition over the next several years, the already booming U.S. market could see further growth.

  5. All Eyes on the European Cannabis Market

  The European cannabis market has been on investors’ radar for several years, and with good reason—it is one of the largest cannabis markets in the world.

  Driven primarily by medicinal products, the market will be valued at over $39 billion by 2024, with countries like Germany—Europe’s largest economy—leading the way.

  In late 2020, the market experienced its biggest breakthrough yet, with the European Union ruling that products containing CBD (one of the most active ingredients in cannabis) are no longer listed as narcotics.

  6. Making History in Mexico

  Mexico is another market that is piquing the interest of investors and cannabis companies the world over. That’s because it could soon be the third country in the world to legalize recreational cannabis by court order.

  With a total addressable market of $2 billion and the potential to support up to 75,000 jobs, these new regulations could change the dynamic of the global market for the better.

  7. Most Popular Cannabis Products

  Given the flurry of product innovation in the market, consumption of cannabis is quickly changing.

  Relatively new products such as edibles and oils are gaining traction, while consumption of flower appears to be declining. This could be due in part to oral products being perceived as a healthier alternative to smoking.

  8. CBD Products are Moving into the Mainstream

  Although CBD was once considered a niche product that could only be found in dispensaries, growing awareness of the benefits and safety of these products are causing companies operating in the consumer packaged goods industry to take notice.

  The cannabis compound is a new addition to a wide range of products such as skincare, makeup, and supplements that can now be purchased almost anywhere—from ecommerce sites to local grocery stores.

  9. The New Cannabinoids on the Block

  Beyond CBD, scientists have discovered over 100 rare, or minor cannabinoids such as CBG and CBN, that could have even more significant benefits than their major cannabinoid counterparts.

  For example, preliminary research shows that CBG could inhibit cancer growth, help treat glaucoma, bladder dysfunction, and kill drug-resistant bacteria.

  These discoveries are not only attracting huge attention from the cannabis industry, but from the pharmaceutical industry as well.

  Milestones in the Making

  With all of these exciting developments coming to the fore, it’s safe to say 2021 could be one of the cannabis industry’s most transformative years to date.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 21:30

• The Stage Is Set For A Bull Market In Oil
  The Stage Is Set For A Bull Market In Oil

  Authored by Dylan Grice via TheMarket.ch,

  In late 2019, we published a report and recommended an exposure in the oil and especially the oil services sector. Down by over a third since we first did our research back in December of 2019, and down by as much as 70% during the March crash, it has been our worst performing idea by a wide margin. Hence, we felt it was high time for an update.

  We’ll start by retracing our original idea. Then we’ll try to understand what was missing from it, and why it went so badly for us. We’ll end by bring the idea up-to-date and in so doing, make the case that the oil industry has an essential role to play for coming generations.

  Yes, energy transition is real and, for what it’s worth, something we are completely in favour of. The question is when it happens, not if it happens, but the implications from it taking several decades rather than several years vary enormously. The cornerstone of our thesis is really that the oil industry is being written off prematurely. From that premise, everything else follows.

  A shortage of capital

  In very simple terms, writing in December 2019, as the first reports of a mysterious virus circulating in the Chinese city of Wuhan reached Europe, we felt that the energy slump was behind us. The excesses which had led to the shale crash were being worked out, bankruptcies had soared, and capacity had been reduced. Yet the world still needed oil, and the oil majors were beginning to sanction large projects again. There was a shortage of capital, not opportunity.

  We also liked the people driving capital allocation in the energy market. In particular, we liked that experienced and successful investors like Sam Zell and John Fredriksen were moving in, self-made billionaires who’d made their fortunes partly by buying things that no one else wanted over the years. On the other side, the «sellers», were politicians, bureaucrats and other non-economically motivated players (primarily ESG-driven investors).

  We were comfortable that the energy transition was real but concluded that this was a) glacially moving, and importantly, b) a widely understood shift. Oil was still needed in the meantime, and so «low-risk» oil extraction from relatively low-risk short-cycle projects which could be quickly ramped up was more than merely viable, it was essential.

  Only shale-oil players and the shallow-water projects fit this bill, but we’d had terrible experiences with shale oil producers in the past – they are hopelessly drill-addicted capital misallocators. Shallow-water drillers and servicers were our sweet spot by default. Given the near-term uncertainty in the space, we felt those with strongest balance sheets were best positioned to ride out any remaining volatility. We gave Tidewater and Standard Drilling as examples.

  What happened?

  Our thesis was coming good as we started 2020. The majors were increasing their capex targets. Our belief that the lower-risk shallow water deposits would be prime production targets was panning out too, with the number of jack-ups (shallow-water drillers) which were active globally clearly trending higher, in contrast to the activity of floaters (mid-to-deep water drillers) which remained stagnant.

  

  Saudi Aramco awarded a string of contracts to Shelf Drilling, the majority of which were for ten years (maturities not seen since the heydays of the offshore drilling boom).

  But then COVID hit, and the global lockdown led to a cessation of nearly all physical economic activity. There’s no need for us to expand upon just how ugly the macro data was during that time. Weekly US initial jobless claims rising by 244 standard deviations in the middle of March says it all. As far as the energy markets went, the collapse in world oil demand was more muted. The fall from 100 million barrels per day (mbd) to 80 mbd in the three months to April was only a 10 standard deviation event…

  The world’s energy infrastructure wasn’t designed with such a sudden decline in demand in mind. The physical market was turned on its head as refineries turned away crude oil, as did storage facilities which had no capacity. Financial markets behaviour was even more chaotic with the WTI contract (which is for physical delivery) turning negative in case any of you had forgotten.

  It seems as though the WTI-tracking ETFs which mechanically roll their futures at the end of each month weren’t paying attention, and as expiry approached, they were the only holders of the May contract.

  It wasn’t so much panic selling by ETF funds that drove prices into negative territory (although it’s hard to imagine there wasn’t plenty of that too), it was that there were literally no buyers left in the market for that contract. It’s the most concise way we can think of for conveying how utterly chaotic those days were for everyone involved in the oil market. Despite the recovery from those lows, we can still see the effects of the trauma today.

  

  The financial panic also reached boardroom level for the oil majors. According to Rystad Energy, 20 bn $ was cut from projected E&P capex by the majors, as the following chart shows. Activity in the jack-up and floater markets also tracked lower once more.

  

  Crude prices expected in the medium term, as measured by the rolling sixty-month-out WTI contract, averaged 53 $ before COVID, but have averaged only 45 $ since. And if we look further out, at the rolling one-hundred-twenty-month out WTI contract (i.e. the market’s ten year expectation) prices have fallen by around 5 $ in the last few months. That’s only a few dollars higher than the March 2020 liquidity puke. The crude oil market’s verdict is clear: COVID has permanently impaired it.

  Meanwhile, the market capitalization of Tesla is today roughly the same size as that of the entire S&P 500 Oil sector, which includes the majors, the independents, the drillers, the service companies AND the refiners.

  

  So the equity market’s view seems similarly equivocal: oil has no future, the energy transition is here.

  Three reasons why the oil market has an investable future

  Except that it isn’t. Or at least according to Bloomberg, which in its annual Electric Vehicle Outlook summary projects that Electric Vehicles (EVs) will only make up around 8% of the total fleet of passenger cars by 2030. Bloomberg expect the number of cars to rise from today’s 1.2 billion vehicles to 1.4 billion, but only for 110 m of them to be EVs. So the number of oil-consuming Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles on the road by then will still be around 1.3 bn, which is a forecast rise of around 0.7% per year.

  Moreover, while passenger vehicles contribute around 60% of the global demand for crude oil, the rest comes from heavy duty vehicles, aviation and the petrochemicals industry for which there are as yet, few alternatives.

  We’re not saying this is a good thing or that it’s something we’re especially happy about, but as investors our job is to allocate capital according to the way we think the world is, not the way we want it to be. And it’s obvious to us that the oil market will continue to play a central role in the global economy in the coming decades.

  A second fact we think is important to understand is that the transition to EVs is a risk which is widely recognised and understood. BP has gone further than most in pivoting away from hydrocarbons, and very few oil executives are carrying on as normal, or are under any delusion about the reality of their industry.

  The question isn’t whether or not oil demand peaks, the question is when. Project appraisals and capital allocation factor this in before sign-off. The general trend within the industry is very understandably that of moving towards a perfectly rational risk-aversion.

  Lower-risk shorter-cycle projects, such as those we already mentioned, in shallow waters or in shale formations are clearly more attractive and easier to sign off on than those in deep waters, even if that’s where the largest deposits are ordinarily expected to be found.

  Even the gunslingers of the shale patch seem to have gotten this memo. Scott Sheffield, CEO and co-founder of Pioneer Natural Resources, the largest owner of Spraberry acreage in the Permian, told attendees at a recent Goldman Sachs investor call that he didn’t expect much increase in Permian or wider US shale over the next several years, and that the Bakken and Eagle Ford shale regions might never see growth again. As for his own company, the message was clear: «I never anticipate growing above 5% under any conditions. Even if oil went to $100 a barrel and the world was short of supply».

  The CEO of Devon echoed the sentiments, «I have a hard time seeing the need for U.S. producers over the next several years to get back to double-digit growth. For this management team, if we really think about 2021, let’s keep it flat.»

  Which brings us neatly to the third point. Global production outside of shale oil has been flat since 2015. All incremental growth was driven by shale. Yet oddly enough, it’s still not quite clear how profitable that growth was. According to Deloitte, the shale industry registered net cumulative free cash flows of negative $300 billion since 2010, impaired more than 450 bn $ of invested capital, and saw more than 190 bankruptcies. Indeed, companies accounting for nearly 50% of shale output are so operationally and financially weak that Deloitte considers them «superfluous».

  

  If Deloitte are right, and the shale patch’s newfound aversion to excessive risk sticks, global oil production may well surprise on the downside in coming years.

  Arguably, the outlook is more bullish for oil today than it was pre-COVID. Regardless, the energy transition isn’t going away. Low-risk, short-cycle barrels will be in relatively higher demand, which argues not only for the higher quality shale assets, but the shallow water players. Which brings us back to where we started: shallow water services.

  Shallow water drillers in the sweet spot

  We don’t want to go into too much detail here. But since we discussed Tidewater in our original piece in December 2019, let’s consider it again. You may recall that having acquired Gulfmark it is now the largest listed Offshore Service Vessel (OSV) player and has been through a savage restructuring (G&A reduced by 45%, fleet reduced by 24%). It has an EV of around $500 million, of which net debt is $60 m, no maturities due until August 2022, and expects to generate free cashflow in 2020 of $42 m.

  The combined EBITDA for Tidewater and Gulfmark in 2014 was $590 m, since then $60 m of cost synergies have been extracted. So call it $650 m peak EBITDA. If they can recover to just half of that, they’ll be at a normalized EBITDA of $325 m. Historically, their EV/EBITDA averaged 7x, but let’s assume that we’re wrong on the relative attractiveness of anything operating in shallow waters, and that anything oil can only expect to trade at a 50% discount compared to its former glories, given the perception that oil is now a permanently shrinking industry.

  Let’s put that new EBITDA on an EV multiple of 3.5x. That implies an EV of $1.14 bn, which assuming a constant net debt of $60 m implies an equity value of just under $1.1 bn, compared to today’s $440 m. That’s around 2.4x. Of course, if we’re right about the attractiveness of shallow waters, EBITDA could surprise on the upside, and the market could reappraise its view on the sector’s longevity, which would translate into a significant rerating. It’s not difficult to see 4-8x returns here in the coming years.

  And what happened to the supposed «smart money» which was buying in late 2019? Well, at the risk of stating the obvious, it shows that while skin-in-the-game might be important, it’s not a guarantee of success. Nevertheless, in an interview with CNBC in March of last year – during the teeth of the market rout – Sam Zell said he’d been adding to his energy holdings: «We think the energy space is really cheap … what helps is we were not in the energy space before.»2 John Fredriksen, who has been in the energy space before, remains fully committed, and has recently appointed Tor Andre Svelland to run his interests.

  The smart money, it seems, is still invested.

  *  *  *

  Dylan Grice is co-founder of Calderwood Capital Research, an investment company specialising in portfolio construction and alternative investments. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 21:10

• China's Industry Ministry Urges Chipmakers To Increase Production Capacity
  China’s Industry Ministry Urges Chipmakers To Increase Production Capacity

  All does not seem to be well in the world’s largest auto market – especially now as the ongoing global semiconductor shortage is hitting the country where it hurts. 

  China’s industry ministry said this week that it met with automotive and chip manufacturers to try and help ease what is now being called a “crisis” of a shortage in global semiconductors. 

  The country’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has told companies to “place high importance on” and “increase production capacity allocation” for China’s auto market, according to Reuters. 

  The Ministry also urged companies to improve logistics and supply chain coordination to support China’s auto industry. 

  As if any of that needed to actually be said at this point…

  

  The auto industry has been struggling with the shortage in semi chips for weeks now, as we have been reporting. Major manufacturers like Toyota, Nissan and GM have all felt the sting of the shortage, with many automakers shutting down shifts and slowing production as a result. 

  In fact, just yesterday, General Motors noted that the chip shortage was going to cost the company $1 billion to $2 billion in earnings in 2021. And it isn’t just the auto industry that is feeling the pain. 

  We also wrote that Taiwan Semiconductor was rushing to build infrastructure to try and meet demand. TSMC is one of the biggest suppliers of chips to company like Apple, Google and Qualcomm. As a result of a worldwide shortage in chips that was brought on due to the pandemic, they are now rushing to try and get a new factory in the southern Taiwanese city of Tainan built. It’ll be “the world’s most advanced 3-nanometer chip production plant,” according to Nikkei. The company is also building a research and data center in Hsinchu. 

  Construction the new facility will take place throughout 2021, with completion expected in 2022. 

  

  One executive said of TSMC’s expansion: “We received a notice from TSMC that it is giving 4,000 New Taiwan dollars ($145) a day as an extra bonus for every worker willing to come during the Lunar New Year… that is literally at least double the average daily wage for front line workers. Even if that’s only roughly a few extra days of building time [during the holiday], they don’t want to fully stop at all. That shows their commitment to speed up construction and development and confidence for future demand.”

  Recall, we wrote days ago that the shortage is being referred to as the “most serious shortage in years”, with Qualcomm’s CEO saying two weeks ago that there were now shortages “across the board”, according to Bloomberg. 

  But it isn’t just Qualcomm executives speaking out: other industry leaders have warned in recent weeks that they are susceptible to the shortages. Apple said recently that its new high end iPhones were on hold due to a shortage of components. NXP Semiconductors has also warned that the problems are no longer just confined to the auto industry. Sony also said last week it may not be able to to fully meet demand for its new gaming console in 2021 due to the shortage. Companies like Lenovo have also been feeling the crunch.

  

  Neil Mawston, an analyst with Strategy Analytics, said: “The virus pandemic, social distancing in factories, and soaring competition from tablets, laptops and electric cars are causing some of the toughest conditions for smartphone component supply in many years.” 

  Mawston says that prices for some smartphone components are up as much as 15% the last 6 months. 

  To make matters worse, Huawei is being blamed for hoarding components in 2020 (almost as if they knew this was going to happen). This set off other manufacturers to do the same. According to the report:

  Industry executives also blame excessive stockpiling, which began over the summer when Huawei Technologies Co. — a major smartphone and networking gear maker — began hoarding components to ensure its survival from crippling U.S. sanctions. Led by Huawei, Chinese imports of chips of all kinds climbed to almost $380 billion in 2020 –– making up almost a fifth of the country’s overall imports for the year.

  Rivals including Apple, worried about their own caches, responded in kind. At the same time, the stay-at-home era spurred sales of home appliances from the costliest TVs to the lowliest air purifiers, all of which now come with smart, customized chips. TSMC executives said on its two most recent earnings calls that customers have been accumulating more inventory than normal to hedge against uncertainties, a maneuver they see persisting for some time.

  

  “There’s a chip stockpiling arms race,” said Will Bright, co-founder and chief product officer at Drop. Analyst Mario Morales of IDC said: “A lot of it can be traced back to the second quarter of last year, when the whole world basically shut down. Many auto companies shut down manufacturing and their suppliers re-prioritized. Not until the second half will we see relief for some of these markets.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 20:50

• Cuomo Coverup? Aide Admits Nursing Home Data Purposefully Concealed So Feds Wouldn't Find Out
  Cuomo Coverup? Aide Admits Nursing Home Data Purposefully Concealed So Feds Wouldn’t Find Out

  New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s top aide privately apologized to Democratic lawmakers over a decision to withhold the state’s nursing-home COVID-19 death toll out of fear that it would be “used against us” by the Trump Justice Department, according to the New York Post.

  Melissa DeRosa, Secretary to the Governor, made the shocking admission during a two-hour video conference call with Democratic leaders – telling them that the Cuomo administration stonewalled after the State Senate requested the information in August.

  

  “Right around the same time, [then-President Donald Trump] turns this into a giant political football, says DeRosa in an audio recording of the meeting.

  “He starts tweeting that we killed everyone in nursing homes,” she continues. “He starts going after [New Jersey Gov. Phil] Murphy, starts going after [California Gov. Gavin] Newsom, starts going after [Michigan Gov.] Gretchen Whitmer.”

  DeRosa then suggested that Trump “directs the Department of Justice to do an investigation into us,” and because of this, “basically, we froze” she said.

  “Because then we were in a position where we weren’t sure if what we were going to give to the Department of Justice, or what we give to you guys, what we start saying, was going to be used against us while we weren’t sure if there was going to be an investigation.“

  “That played a very large role into this,” DeRosa added.

  After dropping the bombshell, DeRosa asked for “a little bit of appreciation of the context” and offered what appears to be the Cuomo administration’s first apology for its handling of nursing homes amid the pandemic.

  But instead of a mea culpa to the grieving family members of more than 13,000 dead seniors or the critics who say the Health Department spread COVID-19 in the care facilities with a March 25 state Health Department directive that nursing homes admit infected patients, DeRosa tried to make amends with the fellow Democrats for the political inconvenience it caused them.

  “So we do apologize,” she said. “I do understand the position that you were put in. I know that it is not fair. It was not our intention to put you in that political position with the Republicans.” –New York Post

  Democratic Assembly Health Committee Chairman Richard Gottfried (Manhattan) was livid, shooting back ““I don’t have enough time today to explain all the reasons why I don’t give that any credit at all.” Gottfried had requested the death-toll data in August along with several other lawmakers.

  Another state lawmaker who was “battered during her re-election bid last year over the issue of nursing home deaths” slammed DeRosa as well – saying that her former opponent used the nursing home scandal against her.

  “And the issue for me, the biggest issue of all is feeling like I needed to defend — or at least not attack — an administration that was appearing to be covering something up,” said State Senate Aging Committee Chairwoman Rachel May (D-Syracuse). “And in a, in a pandemic, when you want the public to trust the public-health officials, and there is this clear feeling that they’re not coming, being forthcoming with you, that is really hard and it remains difficult.”

  Queens Assemblyman Ron Kim (D) told the Post that DeRosa’s remarks came off “like they admitted that they were trying to dodge having any incriminating evidence that might put the administration or the [Health Department] in further trouble with the Department of Justice.”

  “That’s how I understand their reasoning of why they were unable to share, in real time, the data,” Kim added. “They had to first make sure that the state was protected against federal investigation.”

  “It’s not enough how contrite they are with us,” Kim continued. “They need to show that to the public and the families — and they haven’t done that.”

  In addition to stonewalling lawmakers on the the total number of nursing home residents killed by COVID-19, Cuomo’s administration also refused requests from the news media — including The Post — and fought a Freedom of Information lawsuit filed by the Empire Center on Public Policy.

  Instead, it only disclosed data on the numbers of residents who died in their nursing homes.

  But after Attorney General Letitia James last month released a damning report that estimated the deaths of nursing-home residents in hospitals would boost the grim tally by more than 50 percent, Health Commissioner Howard Zucker finally released figures showing the combined total was 12,743 as of Jan. 19.

  Just a day earlier, the DOH was only publicly acknowledging 8,711 deaths in nursing homes. –New York Post

  Following the release of AG James’ report, Cuomo callously said during a news conference that it didn’t matter where nursing home fatalities ultimately occurred.

  “Who cares [if they] died in the hospital, died in a nursing home? They died,” he said.

  Cuomo’s office appears to have made this disclosure after they figured they were in the clear.

  “All signs point to they are not looking at this, they’ve dropped it,” said DeRosa, of the Biden DOJ. “They never formally opened an investigation. They sent a letter asking a number of questions and then we satisfied those questions and it appears that they’re gone.”

  👀👀🚨🚨

  I’ve said it all along: This is a CRIMINAL coverup corruption scandal.

  The Department of Justice must investigate and prosecute these corrupt criminals.

  👀👀🚨🚨https://t.co/Gxhhnwl3yx

  — Elise Stefanik (@EliseStefanik) February 12, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 20:30

• Desperate Manhattan Landlords Offer Record Incentives To Fill Vacant Apartments 
  Desperate Manhattan Landlords Offer Record Incentives To Fill Vacant Apartments 

  Manhattan apartment landlords are getting desperate as inventory swells, and they are offering some of the most concessions ever to attract new tenants, according to Bloomberg. 

  Appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate published a report this week that showed the value of incentives for new tenants averaged out to 2.3 months of free rent in January, the most on record. 

  

  “You’ve got to keep sweetening the pot,” said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel. He added the purpose of incentives is “to temper the decline.” 

  The “decline” Miller refers to is the plunge in the borough’s residential real estate market following the pandemic. Work-at-home continues to dominate as office buildings remain empty. Tens of thousands of city dwellers have moved to suburbs or rural communities to escape the metro area’s socio-economic implosion. All this has culminated into record-high inventory, and a sharp drop in rental rates as supply becomes an issue. 

  However, there was some good news. Last month, new lease signings soared 58% from a year earlier to 6,255. Even with the influx of new tenants, inventory still sits at a decade high. 

  The last year has been painful for landlords. In a past report, Miller warned that a surge in new leases should not be viewed as an “imminent recovery.” 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 20:10

• Rickards: The Only Way Out Of The Death Trap
  Rickards: The Only Way Out Of The Death Trap

  Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

  I’ve said the U.S. is caught in a debt death trap.

  Monetary policy won’t get us out because the velocity of money, the rate at which money changes hands, is dropping.

  Printing more money alone will not change that.

  

  Fiscal policy won’t work either because of high debt ratios. At current debt-to-GDP ratios, each additional dollar spent yields less than a dollar of growth. But because it must be borrowed, it does add a dollar to the debt. Debt becomes an actual drag on growth.

  The ratio gets higher, and the situation grows more desperate. The economy barely grows at all while the debt mounts. You basically become Japan.

  The national debt is $27.8 trillion. A $27.8 trillion debt would not be an issue if we had a $50 trillion economy.

  But we don’t have a $50 trillion economy. We have about a $21 trillion economy, which means our debt is bigger than our economy.

  The debt-to-GDP ratio is about 130%. Before the pandemic, it was about 105% (the policy response to the pandemic caused the spike).

  Already in the Danger Zone

  But even a ratio of 105% is in the danger zone.

  Economists Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart carried out a long historical survey going back 800 years, looking at individual countries, or empires in some cases, that have gone broke or defaulted on their debt.

  They put the danger zone at a debt-to-GDP ratio of 90%. Once it reaches 90%, debt becomes a drag on growth.

  Meanwhile, we’re looking at deficits of $1 trillion or more, long after the pandemic subsides.

  In basic terms, the United States is going broke. We’re heading for a sovereign debt crisis.

  I don’t say that for effect. I’m not looking to scare people or to make a splash. That’s just an honest assessment based on the numbers.

  Tax cuts won’t bring us out of it, neither can structural changes to the economy. Both would help if done properly, but the problem is simply far too large.

  So, an economic time bomb is ticking. Velocity is dropping. Debt is growing while growth is slowing. The explosion will come in the form of asset bubbles bursting and stocks crashing.

  There’s no way out of the debt death trap. Or is there?

  There is actually a way out. It’s the only solution left, really. And that’s inflation.

  Deadbeats Love Inflation

  Deflation increases the real value of debt. With deflation, the value of money increases, making it more burdensome to pay off debt. This is why debtors hate deflation.

  And guess who is the world’s largest debtor nation? That’s right, the U.S.

  On the other hand, inflation decreases the real value of debt. It’s easier to pay down debt because you’re paying back debt with dollars that are less valuable than when you originally borrowed them.

  But the Fed has failed to produce inflation for over a decade now, despite all the trillions of dollars it’s fabricated.

  Then how can the government and the Fed produce inflation now?

  The solution is to increase the price of gold in order to change inflationary expectations. That will increase money velocity and get the growth engine running again. The Fed could actually cause inflation in about 15 minutes if it used this method.

  FDR did this to perfection in 1933, and his actions began to dig us out of the Great Depression. Jerome Powell, Biden and his Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen could do it again if they wanted to (assuming they know how, which is probably too much to assume).

  But how could they increase the gold price to increase money velocity and change inflation expectations?

  Inflation in 15 Minutes

  I’ve written about it before, but it bears revisiting, especially since there are newer readers who may be unfamiliar with it. Here’s how they can do it:

  The Fed can call a board meeting, vote on a new policy, walk outside and announce to the world that effective immediately, the price of gold is $5,000 per ounce.

  They could make that new price stick by using the Treasury’s gold in Fort Knox and the major U.S. bank gold dealers to conduct “open market operations” in gold.

  The Fed will be a buyer if the price hits $4,950 per ounce or less and a seller if the price hits $5,050 per ounce or higher. They will print money when they buy and reduce the money supply when they sell via the banks.

  The Fed would target the gold price rather than interest rates.

  The point is to cause a generalized increase in the price level. A rise in the price of gold from $1,900 per ounce to $5,000 per ounce is a massive devaluation of the dollar when measured in the quantity of gold that one dollar can buy.

  There it is — massive inflation in 15 minutes: the time it takes to vote on the new policy.

  It’s Happened Before

  The first time this happened was in 1933 when President Franklin Roosevelt ordered an increase in the gold price from $20.67 per ounce to $35.00 per ounce, nearly a 75% rise in the dollar price of gold.

  He did this to break the deflation of the Great Depression, and it succeeded. The economy grew strongly from 1934-36.

  The second time was in the 1970s when Nixon ended the conversion of dollars into gold by U.S. trading partners. Nixon did not want inflation, but he got it.

  Gold went from $35 per ounce to $800 per ounce in less than nine years, a 2,200% increase. U.S. dollar inflation was over 50% from 1977-1981. The value of the dollar was cut in half in those five years.

  History shows that raising the dollar price of gold is the quickest way to cause general inflation. If the markets don’t do it, the government can. It works every time.

  Would the government and the Fed consider the gold trick I just described? They may have no choice ultimately.

  ‘What Can I Do?’

  The real message is that the solutions to current debt levels are inflationary. That means revaluing the dollar either through a higher gold price or marking the gold to market and giving the government money.

  There are a lot of moving parts here, but they all point in one direction, which is higher inflation.

  It’s the only way to keep America from going broke and falling into a sovereign debt crisis.

  Unfortunately, it will also slash the value of the dollar. Your savings could quickly evaporate, and your standard of living will suffer.

  That’s why I recommend you put around 10% — but no more than 20% — of your investable assets into physical gold.

  I also recommend select gold stocks, which can massively leverage the spot price of gold to produce enormous returns.

  That will give you the protection you need to safeguard your wealth and grow it.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 19:50

• Biden 'Eager' To Take On NRA After Pledging To Defeat Gun Rights Organization
  Biden ‘Eager’ To Take On NRA After Pledging To Defeat Gun Rights Organization

  President Biden is ‘eager’ to take on the National Rifle Association, and has refused to rule out using executive action to circumvent the Congressional process to do so, the White House signaled on Thursday.

  

  When asked whether Biden will resort to According to the Washington Times, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that the president hasn’t yet formulated a strategy, but that he’s ‘eager’ to do so, according to the Washington Times.

  “First I will say that the president addressing gun violence in the country and putting in place additional safety measures is something that the president has a personal commitment to, and his history on this issue is evidence of that,” said Psaki, adding “He has obviously taken on the NRA twice and won and he is happy and eager to do that in the future.“

  During the 2020 presidential race, Mr. Biden touted the lead role he played in passing the 1994 assault weapons ban and the Brady background check bill.

  Mr. Biden has issued a series of executive actions since taking office and is facing mounting pressure to do something about cracking down on guns. –Washington Times

  On January 8, Biden promised to “defeat” the NRA while he’s in office – responding via Twitter to former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ), who was wounded in a 2011 shooting rampage in Tucson.

  “Your perseverance and immeasurable courage continue to inspire me and millions of others. I pledge to continue to work with you—and with survivors, families, and advocates across the country—to defeat the NRA and end our epidemic of gun violence,” Biden’s account responded.

  .@GabbyGiffords — Your perseverance and immeasurable courage continue to inspire me and millions of others. I pledge to continue to work with you — and with survivors, families, and advocates across the country — to defeat the NRA and end our epidemic of gun violence. https://t.co/zN5J5YjXUM

  — Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) January 8, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsAnd as we noted last month, gun sales have erupted – with 2020 marking a record year in FBI firearm background checks.

  FBI Firearm Background Checks (Monthly) 

  

  The panic grab for guns and ammo began in March/April when the virus pandemic and economic crash triggered the first wave.

  Then the second wave of buying occurred in the summer during social unrest sparked by the police killing of George Floyd. With a transition of power from gun-friendly Republicans to gun-hating Democrats, the next wave of buying should be underway before bans or restrictions come into law. 

  Last year, a total of 39,695,315 completed background checks – up from 28,369,750 in 2019 – the year marked the most firearm checks in history, since the FBI began recording firearm sales in 1998.

  FBI Firearm Background Checks (Annual) 

  

  Nine of the top ten highest firearm-check weeks occurred last year during the heights of the pandemic and social unrest.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 19:30

• No, We Don't Need A 'Reality-Czar': Let Truth And Falsehood Grapple
  No, We Don’t Need A ‘Reality-Czar’: Let Truth And Falsehood Grapple

  Authored by Gary Galles via The Foundation for Economic Education,

  New York Times writer Kevin Roose recently surveyed “our truth-challenged information ecosystem” and found a proliferation of “hoaxes, lies and collective delusions.” As he put it, that limits the Biden administration’s ability to “unite a country,” because “millions of people have chosen to create their own version of reality.”

  In response, he called for the creation of a “reality czar”-led government task force to root out disinformation.

  

  Roose admits such a call for a “truth commission” sounds “dystopian,” before proceeding to ignore many ways it would be exactly that. For instance, the Times, the Biden campaign, the Democrat leadership, and others on board with the idea have come nowhere close to pursuing “the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.” Yet despite a history of disseminating misinformation, clear biases, and suppression of those with different views, they would select the arbiters of Orwellian truth.

  So who could be trusted as the reality czar? No one.

  Just ask Democrats why they never suggested having one when Trump was in office. In politics, truth is subservient to power. But since any attempt to provably establish the truth would be littered with obstacles and controversies, and often beyond possibility, while creating a substantial threat to Americans’ freedoms, only someone who was indisputably committed to both truth and freedom could possibly be trusted to lead such an enterprise. And there are precious few who would qualify. If he wasn’t long dead, I would nominate John Milton.

  Why Milton?

  Before America’s founding, he argued for freedoms of speech and the press, and against censorship, in England. His defense of freedom of conscience later powerfully resonated with America’s founders, reflected in our First Amendment. So it is worth considering the principles he would follow to establish truth and preserve freedom, in his own words.

  1. If it come to prohibiting, there is aught more likely to be prohibited than truth itself.

  2. Truth and understanding are not such wares as to be monopolized.

  3. When complaints are freely heard, deeply considered, and speedily reformed, then is the utmost bound of civil liberty obtained that wise men look for.

  4. Give me the liberty to know, to utter, and to argue freely according to conscience, above all liberties.

  5. Truth…Let her and falsehood grapple.

  6. Who ever knew Truth put to the worse in a free and open encounter?

  7. Truth…needs no policies or stratagems…to make her victorious. These are the shifts and the defenses that error uses against her power.

  8. There is no learned man but will confess be hath much profited by reading controversies–his senses awakened, his judgment sharpened, and the truth which he holds firmly established…should it not at least be tolerable and free for his adversary to write…it follows then, that all controversy being permitted, falsehood will appear more false, and truth the more true; which must needs conduce much to the general confirmation of an implicit truth.

  9. Discern…in what things persuasion only is to work.

  10. No institution which does not continually test its ideals, techniques and measure of accomplishment can claim real vitality.

  11. Liberty hath a sharp and double edge, fit only to be handled by just and virtuous men; to bad and dissolute, it becomes a mischief unwieldy in their own hands: neither is it completely given, but by them who have the happy skill to know what is grievance and unjust to a people, and how to remove it wisely; what good laws are wanting, and how to frame them substantially, that good men may enjoy the freedom which they merit, and the bad the curb which they need.

  12. None can love freedom but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license, which never hath more scope than under tyrants.

  13. How oft [have] nations gone corrupt…by their own devices brought down to servitude.

  14. What do terms…which are at once corrupt and misapplied, denote but a people…ripe for servitude?

  15. Is it just or reasonable, that…voices against the main end of government should enslave [those] that would be free?

  16. They who seek nothing but their own just liberty, have always right to win it and to keep it…be the voices ever so numerous that oppose it.

  In addition, Milton would have some other important qualifications in evaluating reality. He would not be misled by government promises that threaten the rights that comprise our liberty, just because the government doesn’t mention that fact.

  Similarly, when benefit promises far out-weigh promised exactions from citizens, he would recognize that they are omitting some of the truth. As one of history’s most important poets, he would have expertise in what should be considered poetic license. As the second most important author in the English language, after Shakespeare, he would certainly also be alert to the abuse of language not in pursuit of truth, but of power over others. Just some of the words that have had their meanings warped are unity, we, rights, freedom, fair, justice, social, capitalism, need, and greed. And there has been plenty of added word twisting recently, with insurrection being near the top of the list.

  It is obvious that discussing John Milton as a reality or truth czar is not a serious proposal. But that discussion reveals the position’s necessary requirements of the love of truth and the love of freedom our country was founded on.

  Further, it shows that anyone fully meeting those requirements, if given the task, would find a great deal about the positions, promises and policies of those who appointed them both untrue and unworthy of freedom.

  Consequently, no such czar would ever be appointed. And it is hard to see how Americans’ well-being would be advanced by anyone less trustworthy for the job.

  https://fee.org/Scripts/fee-repub.js

  

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 19:10

• Crackdown Begins As SEC Suspends Trading In Pennystock
  Crackdown Begins As SEC Suspends Trading In Pennystock

  It appears that there’s such a thing as pumping a worthless stock too far.

  Today the SEC made it clear that it won’t sit idly by as millions of daytraders gang up and pump pennystocks to the moon after it announced it would bar trading in SpectraScience , a Minnesota healthcare company, the FT reported. The suspension comes as new and inexperienced retail traders have flooded into the market drawing scrutiny from policymakers in Washington.

  In addition to launching a probe in “market manipulation” by Reddit raiders and Robinhood earlier today, the SEC said social media accounts may have been used in a coordinated attempt to “artificially influence” the share price of the company, which does not have a working phone line or website and has not filed quarterly financial results since 2017.

  Lack of actual business notwithstanding, trading of the company’s stock exploded in December and has continued at elevated levels. On January 28, the day a retail-fuelled rally sent the stock of retailer GameStop to a record high, more than 3bn shares of SpectraScience changed hands. 

  

  The coordinated flood of bids pushed SSEC shares briefly above half a penny, its highest level in more than four years. The company’s stock last traded above a penny in 2015.

  

  “The commission is of the opinion that the public interest and the protection of investors require a suspension of trading in the securities,” Vanessa Countryman, the secretary of the SEC, wrote in the commission’s order, in which she said that the suspension in SpectraScience shares would last to February 25, although expect another immediate re-suspension if the stock does not drop.

  While much of the original coordination took place on reddit, some activity appears to have been orchestrated via Twitter, where the FT notes that clusters of day trader accounts tagging the SCIE ticker “spoke in bombastic terms about the stock and their recent investments as they discussed so-called penny plays.”

  One account under the name Alexander Delarge, which had amassed around 50,000 followers, tweeted a post encouraging users in late January to buy the stock, adding that it was likely to go to $1.

  “Ill be buying a million shares at a Dollar showing my buy order to keep it going! As we all should!” the user wrote.

  Among later tweets by the same account, one showed a screenshot of a portfolio of 5.5m SpectraScience shares saying it had gained 50 per cent in one day, adding: “Let the haters watch when this blasts off!”

  Another popular day trader “Canadian Jennifer”, also joined the chorus in early February saying “Yes I bought more! I’m not telling you to buy it. I’m just posting what I SEE and that I’m holding. When my instincts kick in I listen.”

  $SCIE I’m not telling you to buy, hold, or even stop bashing it, myself or Delarge. I will say that the intent was to choose a company that helps with cancer. There was never ill intent here. This posted Jan 27th and it includes $SCIE medical equipment https://t.co/krKPqoz767

  — Canadian Jennifer 🇨🇦 (@cdntradegrljenn) January 31, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And while the SEC is now scrambling to put the genie in the bottle, the reality is that in a world where infinite Fed liquidity has terminally broken any link between stock prices and underlying facts, news or cash flows, such ramps are going to become an increasingly more frequent occurrence. And sadly since no regulator can admit that we now live in the biggest asset bubble ever, they will continue going after the symptoms – speculative daytraders organizing bull raids which by the way have been around ever since the South Sea Bubble – instead of actually focusing on the underlying cause.

  Incidentally, if anyone is still long SRMX whose explosive performance we profiled earlier and which was outperformed SCIE almost threefold, it is only a matter of time before the SEC suspends trading in that company too.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 18:50

• Biden Appoints Pentagon Task Force To Review China Policy Under Well-Known Hawk
  Biden Appoints Pentagon Task Force To Review China Policy Under Well-Known Hawk

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  On Wednesday, President Biden announced a new Pentagon task force that will be reviewing the US military’s policy towards China, another sign that the new administration is prioritizing confronting Beijing.

  Pentagon officials said the task force is a “sprint effort” that will examine things like US troop presence in the region, intelligence, and the role of US allies and partners in countering China. Leading the task force is Ely Ratner, a China hawk who Biden appointed as a special advisor to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.

  

  Before his new position at the Pentagon, Rather worked at the interventionist Center for a New American Security (CNAS) think tank. Despite the Trump administration’s hardline policies towards Beijing, Ratner didn’t believe Trump was tough enough. In September 2020, he co-authored an op-ed titled “Trump Has Been Weak on China, and Americans Have Paid the Price”.

  From his post at CNAS, Ratner led a congressionally mandated study on China that was released in January 2020. The report outlined various ways the US could compete with Beijing in Asia, including military deterrence or a “combat-credible posture in the Indo-Pacific,” as the study put it.

  The study says the US should help its allies in the region build up their militaries to counter China, with a focus on India. “The United States should pay particular attention to supporting India’s efforts to pose military dilemmas for China,” the report reads.

  Both Secretary Austin and Kathleen Hicks, his deputy secretary of defense, identified China as the “pacing threat” to the US military. With Ratner leading the review and China the Pentagon’s priority, the likely result of the task force will be an expanded US military presence in Asia.

  

  The announcement of the task force comes as the new administration is stepping up provocations in the South China Sea. On Tuesday, two US aircraft carriers entered the disputed waters and held rare dual-carrier drills.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 18:30

• Up 3,800% In Two Weeks… And It's Not Gamestop
  Up 3,800% In Two Weeks… And It’s Not Gamestop

  Two weeks ago, when the world was still gripped by the Gamestop euphoria, we predicted that it was only a matter of time before the daytrading army set its sights on not just shorted companies but the universe pennystock/microcap/illiquid names. We then ran a screen focusing that highlighted two specific names: SRMX and KYNC, to wit:

  The results were interesting: while most companies from the two screens overlapped – including GME, BBY, ANC, FIZZ, DDS, GOGO, SRG and so on, there were also some even smaller companies that we never noticed initially…

  

  …. such as Saddle Ranch Media (SRMX) – whose stock costs one-hundredth of a nickel (probably for good reasons) and which “is a diversified media and entertainment company operating three divisions: Saddle Ranch Digital, Saddle Ranch Film, and Saddle Ranch TV”, and KYN Capital Group (KYNC) – a “capital-finance leasing company”  and both of which are pink sheet, microcap companies – the first has a market cap of just $9MM and, according to Bloomberg, a short-to-float ratio of 129%, or just below that of Gamespot…

  

  … while KYNC is a $15MM microcap, which according to BBG has an even more ridiculous 399% SI/Float ratio.

  

  As a note: these are certainly “worthless” stocks and are trading where they are trading for a reason… but as the events in the past few days have shown, none of that actually matters in a bubble where the only thing that does matter is flow of capital.

  Fast forward to today when after occasionally discussing these two names both in our public…

  SRMX +140%
  KYNC +230% https://t.co/sJ2IS6bGuS

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 27, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … and private twitter account (open to subs) we decided to take a look at how these two names have performed since we highlighted them and the result was stunning. As of this morning KYNC has more than doubled, but it is SRMX that is the winner, with the stock up a whopping 2800%.

  

  Putting this move in context, it took Gamestop about a month to rise 2,500% from mid-December, so we already have a new champion – an arguably worthless pennystock has managed to significantly outperform the biggest meme stock of all time.

  UPDATE:

  Make that 3,800%:

  

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 18:22

• ​​​​​​​Hudson Yards A Ghost Town, Investors Panic As Company 'Admits' Financial Problems
  ​​​​​​​Hudson Yards A Ghost Town, Investors Panic As Company ‘Admits’ Financial Problems

  Hudson Yards is open for business – but who is coming?

  Hudson Yards, the largest private development in the US, opened nearly two years ago with much optimism. It’s a massive complex on Manhattan’s Far West Side with condos, office space, and retailers built over a massive railroad yard. But since the virus pandemic, shoppers have vanished, and retailers have shuttered their doors, transforming the area into a ghost town – raising questions about the $25 billion development’s future, according to NYTimes. 

  

  Hudson Yards has become so depressing that the spiraling staircase structure, known as the “Vessel,” has been closed after the third suicide in less than a year. The virus pandemic has turned the development into a lifeless area as many shops and restaurants have been empty since early last year.

  

  Inventory of condominiums continues to swell in the development. The surrounding office buildings are empty as work-at-home dominates. The mall, featuring about 100 retail shops, saw its anchor tenant, Neiman Marcus, file for bankruptcy and closed permanently.

  Owner and developer Related Companies has been banking on wealthy buyers to fill its condos, along with tourists and residents to fill its shops, but all that came to a screeching halt in early 2020 as the pandemic began. 

  “The challenges facing Hudson Yards aren’t unique,” Danny Ismail, an analyst and lead of office coverage for the real estate research firm Green Street, told NYTimes. 

  “All commercial real estate in New York City has been impacted by Covid-19. However, I would argue that post-pandemic, Hudson Yards and the area around it will be one of the better office markets in New York City,” Ismail said. 

  Related told NYTimes, it faces financial difficulties related to the virus pandemic but said commercial tenants were still moving in, hoping for a rebound in the economy due to vaccine rollout. 

  

  There are four office buildings at Hudson Yards, with 50 Hudson Yards still under construction. A spokesman for Related said 93% of the commercial space is leased. 

  “Our strong office leasing, even during the pandemic, is why we’re well-positioned to lead New York’s comeback from Covid and why the adjacent neighborhoods and the entire West Side will recover faster,” the spokesman, Jon Weinstein, said.

  Hudson Yards has been planning to expand across the railroad yard but first needs to construct the second half of a massive deck. Though the company would need billions of dollars for the expansion, a delay in the expansion is possible with the local economy still in tatters. 

  

  … and a recovery in borough could take years (read: “”A Long Slog” – NYC Recovery Lags Rest Of Country As Downturn Could Last Years”). 

  “The residential is going to have to recover, or they switch it up and look at a different product mix over there,” CBRE’s Robert Alexander said. 

  Related is also facing pressure from investors who allege the company refuses to open its books.

  NYTimes expands more on this: 

  Related is also facing pressure from its investors to deliver a fuller accounting of the project’s finances. A group of 35 investors from China — a sliver of the roughly 2,400 who contributed $1.2 billion to Hudson Yards — sued the company last year, accusing it of refusing to open its books or say when it might repay their investments.

  An arbitrator in the case recently denied the investors’ claims and ruled that Related was not required to disclose detailed financial information.

  The company’s lawyers said that Hudson Yards was facing “significant headwinds as a result of Covid-19” and that because of the economic downturn and lockdown restrictions, it may be unable to recoup its investment in at least one property there, 35 Hudson Yards, a mixed-use tower with a hotel, according to filings in the case obtained by The New York Times.

  Another group of Chinese investors, whose contributions of $500,000 per person were part of a United States visa program that can grant them a path to citizenship, are said to also be considering filing a similar lawsuit against Related, according to a person familiar with the situation who was not authorized to speak publicly.

  Before the pandemic, Related said most of its revenue streams were to be derived through its condos and shopping area. 

  Real estate firm Miller Samuel told NYTimes that condo sales at Hudson Yards have fallen off a cliff. In 2019, 157 units were sold in the development, but only 30 were sold in all of 2020. 

  Nancy Wu, an economist at StreetEasy, warned Manhattan is facing a massive supply of condos for sale at the moment. To get through all the supply, it could take years for the borough’s condo market to recover, an indication that Related’s financial outlook looks bleak. 

  The lack of people traversing Hudson Yards is also troubling. 

  Weekday traffic at the Hudson Yards subway station plunged to an average of 6,500 riders in December, compared with 20,000 daily average in 2019. 

  While everyone was expecting things to go back to normal in 2021, Hudson Yards is still a ghost town and could take years to recover. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 02/11/2021 – 18:10

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