- Seven Million Jobs At Risk As European Airline Industry Could See "Further Declines"
Seven Million Jobs At Risk As European Airline Industry Could See “Further Declines”
Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/14/2020 – 02:45The International Air Transport Association (IATA) published a new report Thursday that warns the virus-induced downturn will continue to pressure air passenger numbers, employment and economies across Europe.
IATA said passenger flights are expected to decline by 60% in 2020, resulting in millions of job losses in the aviation and tourism industries.
IATA issued a similar warning of what has been announced by airlines, of which, complete recovery in passenger demand might not be seen until 2024.
The near-term outlook for recovery in Europe remains highly uncertain with respect to the second wave of the pandemic and the broader global economic impact it could have. Passenger demand in Europe is expected to recover gradually and will not reach 2019 levels until 2024. –IATA
IATA’s job loss estimate was increased by 17% from its June report, from 6 million to 7 million, mostly because the highly anticipated V-shaped recovery has failed to materialize.
“It is desperately worrying to see a further decline in prospects for air travel this year, and the knock-on impact for employment and prosperity. said Rafael Schvartzman, IATA’s Regional Vice President for Europe.
Schvartzman said, “It shows once again the terrible effect that is being felt by families across Europe as border restrictions and quarantine continue. It is vital that governments and industry work together to create a harmonized plan for reopening borders.”
IATA’s full-year estimate of jobs supported by aviation (including tourism) at risk in mid-June
If another wave of the virus were to hit Europe, justifying nationwide lockdowns, it could intensify the recession.
Though the German tabloid newspaper Bild has said: “There will be no second hard lockdown in Europe because that would lead to a monster recession that would not be accepted by the population.”
- China Uses "Friendship Groups" To Infiltrate And Divide Europe
China Uses “Friendship Groups” To Infiltrate And Divide Europe
Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/14/2020 – 02:00In a recent report published by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment, the CCP was said to have co-opted European political and business elites using “friendship groups”.
These “friendship groups” seem to assist in educational and cultural exchanges between Europe and China, but they are in fact the mouthpieces and intermediaries that CCP proxies use to help with the CCP’s united front to divide Europe.
On July 1, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment (CSBA) released a publication called “Uncovering China’s Influence In Europe: How Friendship Groups Coopt European Elites”. The report pointed out that “friendship groups” serve as mouthpieces and intermediaries for advancing Beijing’s domestic priorities and foreign policy goals.
These groups consist of local politicians and business elites who, through various public events, help get rid of any negative rhetoric about the CCP and support European policies that are favorable to the CCP.
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Full Report below:
- Lockdown Restrictions Are A Test To See How Much Tyranny Americans Will Accept
Lockdown Restrictions Are A Test To See How Much Tyranny Americans Will Accept
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 23:55Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,
The pandemic lockdowns are a complicated issue, and that is absolutely deliberate. The point of 4th Generation psychological warfare is to present the target individual or population with a hard choice – a no-win scenario. You are damned if you do and damned if you don’t. I often equate this to the key moves in a difficult chess game; your primary goal is to create a dual threat and force your opponent to sacrifice one piece over another in order to escape with the least amount of damage. Do this a few times and you have won the long game.
There are multiple aspects to the global pandemic which seem engineered to push our society to make “sacrificial decisions”. We can choose to sacrifice the lives of those that are susceptible to the virus, sacrifice our economy, or sacrifice many of our freedoms with the promise that the economy and lives will be protected. The easiest choice is always to give away a little more freedom. We’ll get it all back eventually…right?
Of course, we don’t actually get to “choose” anything when we play along with this game. 4th Gen warfare is meant to eventually take IT ALL from the target population while making people think it was their choice to give those things away.
To be clear, it’s not only the pandemic being exploited as leverage to conjure these situations. The leftist riots are another example of a bought and paid for crisis that is being used in an attempt to convince half of Americans that breaking constitutional principles and instituting unprecedented government power is somehow an acceptable sacrifice. The riots and the virus response work hand-in-hand; one is created to get leftists to demand totalitarianism in the name of public safety, the other is created to get conservatives to demand totalitarianism in the name of public safety.
The solution always ends up being totalitarian government.
There are those that would have you believe that this is the only way. The new propaganda meme out there is:
“Silly libertarians live in a fantasy world where freedom is valued over security in times of crisis. We don’t have the luxury of freedom when communist terrorists/deadly virus threaten to destroy the fabric of our society…”
Sound familiar? Yes, this nonsense narrative is everywhere on forums and message boards these days, almost as if someone was paying people to inject it into everyday discussion. The problem is, I’ve seen this all before. Right after the events of 9/11, America went insane for at least a few years, hyperfocused on the threat of terrorists while ignoring the greater root danger of all powerful government. The number of constitutional protections being violated in the name of “beating the terrorists” was staggering, and the number of mostly conservative citizens cheering for this at the time was immense.
Today’s calls for overreaching government power in the name of “beating coronavirus” or “beating the extreme left” are no different. In the wake of widespread fear, people suffer from fits of temporary madness that allows them rationalize moral relativism and unnecessary sacrifices.
I’ve never really understood that aspect of behavior among certain groups. I’ve never been so fearful of losing my life that I was willing to hand over anything including my freedom and my future on the mere chance that I could stay alive just a little longer. But for some, that fear dominates their every waking moment.
To me, this would be a torturous and empty existence. What do these people have to live for anyway? Obviously they don’t care about their children because they are willing to give away their children’s future just so they can feel safer today. Do they have some kind of epic contribution for the good of humanity and they feel they must do anything to survive long enough to make it happen? Are they working on the cure for cancer or a path to world peace? I doubt it.
More likely they work in an office building or a McDonalds or teach kindergarten at a public school. They aren’t contributing all that much, but they are perfectly willing to trade their freedom and everyone’s freedom for a little more time on this Earth. I’ve seen 85-year-old men that can’t move around without a walker raging about people who “don’t wear masks” and how they should be “thrown in jail”.
Buddy, you have lived your life fully. You had your fun. Yet, you are still clinging so desperately to existence that you are demanding the draconian destruction of our society’s core principles just so you can eek out a couple more years of grumbling in misery and eating soft foods?
I’m not saying I contribute much more in comparison, but I also have no interest in controlling the destinies of other people. I’m just trying to live my life as free as possible while helping to ensure others can do the same. And if I die from a virus, then I die, but at least I never aided in the enslavement of future generations. There are plenty of Americans of all ages that feel the same way as I do; but there are many others that seem to be missing that ability to control their fear.
The question I almost never see asked in the mainstream when it comes to the pandemic is this – Is it really all worth it?
Is it worth it to shut down large swaths of the US economy, threatening millions of jobs, sending millions of people into poverty, risking speedy financial collapse and degrading our fundamental freedoms just to save .03% of the population? What if it was 1% of the population? Would it be worth it then? What about 3%?
The reality is, it’s NEVER worth it.
Recently a voting member of the Federal Reserve, Neel Kashkari, argued that the US needs renewed hard lockdowns, meaning most Americans stay stuck at home for at least 6 weeks with little access to the economy. His rationale? The US savings rate has spiked, therefore more Americans are saving, therefore they can financially handle another lockdown.
Now, either Kashkari is very stupid or very evil. I’m going to go with evil. This is just more proof that supports my position that the Fed is a suicide bomber seeking the deliberate destruction of the US in the name of an ideological cult (globalism).
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First, the savings rate does not necessarily represent the majority of Americans. The savings rate can increase dramatically due to a small subsection of the population, such as the upper middle class or the 1%, setting large amounts of money aside, yet the statistics treat this as if it represents the whole population. The Personal Savings Rate also includes stocks and bonds as “savings”, which helps to skew the numbers as well.
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Secondly, with 30 million more Americans added to the unemployment rolls after the last lockdown, how can we take the recent increase in the savings rate seriously? How many average middle class or poverty stricken Americans are included in that stat?
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Thirdly, even if the Fed stat was accurate and most Americans were saving more, how is this an excuse to enforce even harsher lockdowns? People generally save in order to prepare for the worst case scenario. So, because they are saving for the worst case scenario, Kashkari wants to punish them with the worst case scenario, thereby wiping out their savings? Again, he’s either stupid or evil; take your pick.
All no-win scenarios are constructed on lies and false narratives. They require you to believe certain fallacies before you can feel trapped by the decision that is imposed on you.
Kashkari will claim that his strategy will be better for the country in the long run, but he knows full well that the economy was crashing well before the coronavirus arrived on the scene. In fact, the Federal Reserve built the framework for the crash by addicting the system to easy debt through stimulus measures and low interest rates, then they took away the punch bowl triggering a bubble implosion, and now they are the world with punch until everyone drowns in the inflation.
The US economy was broken even without the pandemic lockdowns so there is no point in giving up your freedom or economic access to save the system.
Another lie is that we can somehow avoid or escape the virus. Eventually, almost everyone is going to get it, it’s just a matter of time. Hope that a working vaccine can be developed in less than a year is deluded, and given the terrible results of previous attempts by governments to rush vaccines into production, I think I would rather take my chances with Covid. Even medical tyrant Dr. Fauci himself admits that a vaccine will not be fully effective and that the virus may be around for many years to come.
So, why are we beating around the bush? Why are we shutting down the economy? Why are we giving up our everyday freedoms? Who are we saving? No one. The people that are going to die from coronavirus are going to die from it sooner or later. If we are going to get into a discussion on the so-called “greater good”, then let’s really be logical about it. The decision is not all that hard when you set aside the propaganda and think about it.
Dragging the pandemic out over years with lockdowns hurts the majority of people. It expedites an economic crash that was already in motion and it will lead to massive poverty levels in the US as well as a supply chain breakdown. It may even lead to full-on collapse.
To be clear, I respect the private property rights of businesses that want customers to wear masks or take other precautions in their establishments. I have the right to not shop at those businesses if I don’t like it. The problems arise when government officials try to FORCE businesses to institute pandemic restrictions or to close down completely. An even bigger problem arises when governments try to force pandemic restrictions onto individuals in their everyday lives. This is simply unacceptable.
Government edicts forcing people to social distance or wear masks or deny them the right to free assembly, once instituted, will probably never go away. Once government has the power to dictate your movements and behavior as if your moment-by-moment decisions are a threat to “public health”, they have total power to do anything they wish.
Many of these orders are also being made at the executive level. No state governor, no mayor, no president has the right to unilaterally create laws and assert unchecked authority. It is the job of legislatures to pass laws that affect the common public, and often these laws must be voted on by the citizenry through ballot initiatives. The governor has no more power to force me to wear a mask than some lunatic leftist Karen on the street.
It’s not that I don’t care about the people that are susceptible to the virus, it’s just that I’m not willing to play a rigged game of sacrifice for those people. No, they aren’t worth it, and I include myself in that statement in the event that I am susceptible to the virus. Why should over 99% of people be treated like prisoners so less than 1% of the population can feel safer? If you are really at risk then STAY HOME, shop online and let the rest of us get on with our lives.
I would never ask the majority of people to sacrifice their liberties for my personal comfort. Anyone who does is a coward.
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- "They Won't Get What They're Expecting" – Why Wall Street's Star Traders Are Going To Get 'Shafted' Come Bonus Season
“They Won’t Get What They’re Expecting” – Why Wall Street’s Star Traders Are Going To Get ‘Shafted’ Come Bonus Season
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 23:35The S&P 500 has officially fought its way back to the record highs, but all those investment bankers and traders who got a taste of what it was like during the pre-crisis days earlier this year, when global banks’ sales and trading operations suddenly became profit centers, likely won’t be getting as big of a “taste” as they probably expect when the Holiday bonus season arrives.
As BBG points out in a new story, just because they saved the firm’s bottom line last quarter, doesn’t mean they’ll be getting the personal windfall they feel they deserve (a 30%-50% higher than last year’s paltry comp).
Citing commentary from a handful of Wall Street vets, Bloomberg reported a sad fact of life that this generation of traders is about to learn the hard way. And that is: when S&T hit it out of the park during a “good” year, traders are rewarded. But outperforming in a bad year gets you jack squat.
What’s worse, traders who have been working since shortly after the crisis have never before seen results like this, since centrally planned, Fed-backed markets have robbed brokers of much of the volatility that typically accompanies the traditional process of price discovery. But in an era when asset prices are hopelessly distorted, assets really only move one way.
For the stars, hedge funds will be waiting in the wings, ready to scoop up the best talent.
Bank traders who saved their firms’ bottom lines in the first half of 2020 are facing a reality of the pandemic: Record revenue won’t mean record bonuses, with most businesses facing declines of 10% or more. Even bond traders are likely to find year-end rewards don’t line up with the cash they generated, as firms face loan losses and pressure on costs.
“If your division hits the ball out of the park for the year – you’re probably better off when that happens in a good year for the overall firm,” said Bonnie Schindler, principal at Compensation Advisory Partners. “Fixed-income traders may feel a bit unlucky having that great performance this year.”
That message has been percolating in recent weeks – visible in fresh projections by Wall Street compensation consultants such as Schindler. They see traders who slogged through years of sedate markets now facing the prospect of having their big payoff tempered by tough times in other parts of the business. Deal advisory and lending operations are struggling. Banks are trying to avoid firings and dividend cuts.
It’s enough to frustrate star traders, leaving them vulnerable to poaching by hedge funds willing to pay more.
Everybody else is likely bound to be disappointed…
“People who have taken compensation hits over the years are not going to see the increase they’re expecting,” said Michael Karp, chief executive officer of recruiter Options Group, who predicts more defections by managing directors who run teams. “That’s where there will be a lot of discontent.”
…especially after last year’s bonuses were lean across the street, as banks were hammered by the return to zero interest rates. While the bonuses will certainly be an improvement, as the chart below shows.
Thanks to the new Fed credit facilities and the central bank’s decision to buy up corporate bonds, fixed income trading contributed the biggest increase to last year’s profits.
But while most fixed income traders probably hope to see bonuses of up to 50% or more, most will probably only see 30% or so, according to one well-regarded consultant.
Equities traders at major U.S banks largely succeeded in navigating the most tumultuous markets in a generation as the pandemic triggered lockdowns in March and sent stocks swooning, only to later rebound. But that performance was soon overshadowed by fixed-income trading. Federal Reserve intervention in credit markets helped banks arrange a slew of fundraisings for desperate companies, giving those traders ample chances to buy and sell newly issued bonds.
In the second quarter, traders at three top fixed-income trading houses – JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. – generated about $10 billion in additional revenue. The windfall helped keep JPMorgan and Citigroup profitable despite massive loan-loss provisions.
Fixed-income traders may see their year-end bonuses jump 25% to 30%, according to Alan Johnson, founder of compensation consultant Johnson Associates. Yet those traders are likely to expect increases of 50% or more, he said.
“They’re going to be paid somewhat less than their results on an isolated basis,” Johnson said. “They will be disgruntled.”
Already, some top fixed-income people have made the jump to the hedge fund world. Most funds generally underperform, and the market chaos of the last six months was responsible for its fair share of fund blowups, but the biggest and best-performing funds have their pick of the litter.
Yet by early July, billionaire Steve Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management poached Goldman’s repo trading chief, Alex Blanchard, and the head of the bank’s U.S. government bond trading team, Andrew DiMaria.
Traders who jump to hedge funds can pocket compensation more proportional to their outsize profits. While many hedge funds have struggled to outperform the markets this year, some – including Citadel, Balyasny Asset Management and Millennium Management – are widely seen as having the strength to make targeted hires of rainmakers.
Are Wall Street’s “star traders” really getting screwed here? While many might be tempted to complain about “carrying the firm on their backs”, they should probably think twice, or at least keep quiet: since more often than not over the past decade, that shoe has been on the other foot.
Plus, with the Fed pumping an endless flood of liquidity into markets, it’s not like these traders had to really work that hard for their money. Anybody who disagrees can try throwing in an application at DDTG.
- Real-Time Card Spending Data Suggests A Sizable Miss In Tomorrow's Retail Sales Report
Real-Time Card Spending Data Suggests A Sizable Miss In Tomorrow’s Retail Sales Report
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 23:09With the retail sales report on deck tomorrow morning, traders will be curious to see if consumer spending indeed fizzled in July just as the fiscal cliff discussed earlier hit, and as consumers in impacted states hunkered down.
Conveniently, Bank of America provided its monthly card spending update earlier to give a glimpse into not only consumer behavior in the first week of August but also all of July. According to the bank, total card spending, as measured by aggregated BAC credit and debit cards, increased 2.1% yoy for the 7-day period ending August 8th which is an improvement from the -3.0% yoy pace last week. One explanation posited by BofA’s economists is that “the timing of the pay period likely held back spending last week and created a boost this week. Smoothing through, the story remains the same: card spending is moving sideways in a choppy fashion.”
Below are some key observations:
1. Unemployment insurance (UI): The extended benefits from the CARES Act expired on July 31st, leaving UI recipients with a reduction in income. BofA examined spending trends of the population of card holders who receive UI through ACH (direct deposit) and compare to those that do not, broken down by income cohort. In general, and as one would expect, the YOY rate of growth for UI recipients declined but it increased for the broader population. The differential was the largest for the lower income cohort.
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2. Back-to-school (or not): The back-to-school (BTS) shopping season is meaningfully different this year with many students not returning to school in person. To gauge the impact of such, BofA created a composite of retailers that are most highly correlated to the August BTS and examine the trends this year vs. last. Data is also shown on a regional basis given the varying timelines of school openings across the country. There is a clear turning point in mid-July where the BTS composite diverged relative to last year. The BTS composite has shown no growth since early June this year vs. a 20% increase between early July and August last year. That said, interestingly, there is a meaningful increase in online department store spending over the most recent period, which could reflect BTS shopping.
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3. Monthly data for July: The BofA census retail sales forecast is based on the BAC data which showed that retail sales ex-autos improved a modest 0.3% mom SA in July, bringing the 3-month moving average to 5.4%.
The bank forecasts retail sales ex-auto from Census Bureau to also increase by just 0.3% mom, which would bring the Census 3-month moving average in line with that of BAC card data, and would also be a material miss to consensus expectations of a 1.3% increase.
However, BofA cautions that the risk is to the upside given that grocery stores spending, which dropped 1% mom, has a bigger share in BAC retail spending than in the Census retail report.
The charts below show the “big picture” in daily card spending by major category.
Spending on a regional basis shows that most cities that continue to have shutdowns or are otherwise affected by ongoing riots, continue to lag.
Broken down between online and “brick and mortar”, the spending winner is all too clear:
And, as observed previously, the spending recovery continues to be led by the lower income (those earnings <$50K cohort which is most dependent on government benefits):
- Kindergartners To Learn About White Supremacy In PA School District
Kindergartners To Learn About White Supremacy In PA School District
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 22:55Elementary school children attending a wealthy Pennsylvania school district this fall will be required to learn that white people who sympathize with police officers, or decline to watch the news, are complicit in racism, according to the Washington Free Beacon.
Gladwyne Elementary School—located in Lower Merion School District, one of the richest in the nation—will require fourth and fifth graders to read Not My Idea: A Book About Whiteness, which claims that white people who relate to police officers or decline to watch the news are complicit in racism. The curriculum also assigns A Kid’s Book About Racism to kindergarten and first graders.
The books are raising eyebrows among some parents, who take issue with their political focus. Elana Yaron Fishbein, a mother of two boys and a doctor of social work, penned a letter to the district’s superintendent, board members, and the school’s principal demanding the school remove its new “cultural proficiency” curriculum. –Washington Free Beacon
“The book teaches kids not only to defy parents but to hate themselves,” Fishbein told the Beacon, adding “To hate their parents also because they are white. By default, [the kids] are white, and they’re privileged, and they’re bad. [The school] is teaching this to little kids.”
The move comes as several school districts across the country have altered their curriculum amid national protests in the wake of the death of George Floyd, a black suspect who died after a Minneapolis police officer knelt on his neck for more than eight minutes.
Virginia’s Loudon County School District – America’s richest by median income, is collaborating with Teaching Tolerance, a left-wing education group, which will be developing a new kindergarten curriculum revolving around slavery. According to the Beacon, proposed lesson plans will recommend restructuring history and social studies classes to emphasize slavery as fundamental to American society.
Cultural proficiency lessons at Gladwyne were announced in an email to parents on June 9. The email claims that despite offering four other lessons on equity and race, the school’s “Cultural Proficiency Committee” believes those lessons are insufficient and created a fifth lesson focused explicitly on anti-racism.
“Generally, each class also engages in a cultural proficiency lesson; however, we realize that this is not enough,” Gladwyne principal Veronica Ellers wrote in an email obtained by the Free Beacon. “We plan to continue designing lessons that promote anti-racist actions in the upcoming 20-21 school year and beyond.”
A Kid’s Book About Racism has an exhaustive list of actions it deems harmful and racist. The book claims asking questions can be racist and issues a call to action for five- to seven-year-olds to call out and identify racism.
“[Racism] happens all the time,” the book reads. “Sometimes it shows up in small ways. Like a look, a comment, a question, a thought, a joke, a word, or a belief…. If you see someone being treated badly, made fun of, excluded from playing, or looked down on because of their skin color call it racism.” –Washington Free Beacon
Meanwhile, parents questioning the new curriculum are afraid of being called racists. According to Fishbein, other parents are private messaging her with their disapproval of the cultural proficiency plans, but won’t speak out publicly.
“If you say anything that’s racist according to the school or parent’s definition of racism, you’re out,” she said, adding “You’re called a racist. No wonder the parents don’t talk.”
- Beyond The (Benefits) Cliff: The Wile E. Coyote Moment For The US Consumer
Beyond The (Benefits) Cliff: The Wile E. Coyote Moment For The US Consumer
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 22:42Just over a month ago, we argued that rapid and record fiscal stimulus had been a critical driver of the initial V-shaped recovery in consumer spending and therefore that several benefits cliffs could endanger this momentum if government support was removed prematurely (see: “Look Out Below”: Why The Economy Is About To Fly Off A Fiscal Cliff”). The first of those cliffs was hit at the end of July, with the failure to pass additional legislation leading to the expiration of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) benefits, which have provided qualifying unemployed individuals an additional $600 per week.
And although President Trump signed an executive order to renew these benefits at $400 per week – $300 supplied by reallocating unused funds from elsewhere in the CARES Act and $100 from states – legal, administrative and fiscal uncertainty remains about how and when these checks will hit the pockets of the unemployed.
As Deutsche Bank’s Matthew Luzzetti writes this week, the evaporation of these benefits highlights near-term downside risks to consumer spending, particularly for lower income households, which have been a critical engine of the recovery despite being disproportionately more likely to lose a job during the pandemic – a testament to the effectiveness of the income supplement.
As we noted two months ago, and again as seen in Figure 2, consumer spending by lower-income households has significantly outpaced middle and higher income. In fact, by mid-June spending by lower-income households had already completely normalized. However, around the end of July, consumer spending fell more for lower-income households, no doubt impacted by the sharp decline in unemployment benefits that occurred during this time (Figure 3).Separately, and consistent with the idea that the expiration of unemployment benefits is likely to impair consumer spending negatively, particularly for lower-income households, Google mobility data also indicates that since the end of July foot traffic around retail has underperformed in states that were more likely to be impacted negatively by the expiration of these benefits. This can be seen in Figure 4, where there is a clearly negative relationship between the insured unemployment rate in a state – with states with a higher insured unemployment rate more sensitive to changes in benefits – and the change in mobility around retail outlets.
As Luzzetti summarizes, while it is too early to reach concrete conclusions about the aggregate implications of the expiration of these benefits, this real-time data reaffirms findings from recent academic research, which found that consumer spending was likely to experience a material hit if expanded unemployment benefits were cut sharply.
- The Attempted COVID Coup Of 2020
The Attempted COVID Coup Of 2020
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 22:35Authored by Angelo Codevilla via RealClearPolitics.com,
What history will record as the great COVID coup of 2020 is based on lies and fear manufactured by America’s ruling class – led by the Democratic Party and aided by the complaisance of most Republican politicians.
In March, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) presented the coronavirus to the Western world as a danger equivalent to the plague. But China’s experience, which its government obfuscated, had already shown that COVID-19 was much less like the plague and more like the flu. All that has happened since followed from falsifying this basic truth.
Americans were led to believe that the virus was unusually contagious, and that it would kill up to one in 20 persons it infected—a 5 percent infection/fatality rate (IFR). Today, we still lack definitive, direct knowledge of COVID-19’s true lethality. The absence of that knowledge allows bureaucrats to continue fearmongering.
By May, a host of studies in the U.S. and around the world showing that the vast majority of COVID cases cause mild symptoms or none, and showing the IFR to be equal to or lower than that for most flus, forced the CDC to conclude that the lethality rate, far from being 5 percent, was 0.26%––double that of a typical flu. Instead of amending their recommendations in the face of this reality, the CDC and the U.S. government tried to hide it by manipulating the definition and number of COVID “cases.”
Federal officials defined “cases” as people sick enough to be hospitalized who also tested positive for the virus—this represented the “curve” that we were urged to sacrifice so much to “flatten,” lest a wave of hospitalizations overwhelm our health-care system. That wave never came. The CDC and feds began labeling mere infections as “cases” and stopped reporting “cases” together with the number of deaths. They did this to frighten the inattentive public about “spiking COVID cases.” They also inflated the number of deaths attributed to COVID by including illnesses such as pneumonia and influenza and others into the death figures.
In reality, those who died with or of COVID-19 nearly always suffered from other diseases as well, such as Type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, and compromised lungs, in addition to being elderly and infirm. COVID-19’s effect on ordinary healthy persons is considerably milder than those of ordinary respiratory diseases.
COVID-19 is not America’s plague. There was never the slightest evidence that the virus could produce mass casualties; all evidence pointed in the opposite direction. Instead, the ruling class took this opportunity to extort the general public’s compliance with its agendas. Their claim to speak on behalf of “science” is an attempt to avoid being held accountable for the enormous harm that they are doing. They continue doing it because they want to hold on to the power the panic has brought them.
In sum, the lockdowns have been inflicted and perpetuated by people who care more about your subjugation than your health. They want to wreck the U.S. economy and increase the Democratic Party’s chances in the 2020 election. And they might succeed.
The 2016 election raised the possibility that the presidency’s enormous powers might be used to dismantle the ruling class’s network of prestige and privileges. In response, elites launched what has amounted to a “full court press” against the Trump administration, treating anything and everything about the administration as illegitimate. Despite their best efforts, the U.S. economy boomed. Trump’s approval ratings rose. As 2020 dawned and Trump seemed a cinch for reelection, the political left and its allies grasped for ways of damaging him.
COVID-19 was the perfect chance to produce, stoke, and maintain fear in pursuit of power. In short, the ruling class used the coronavirus to collapse American life. We are living through a coup d’état based on the oldest of ploys: declaring emergencies, suspending law and rights, and issuing arbitrary rules of behavior to excuse taking “full powers.”
Truth and clarity about the 2020 COVID coup are necessary for the United States to overcome its effects. Americans are anxious for truth about what happened—and what is still happening. The lies upon which this scam has been based are so substantively thin, and the resources for establishing the truth so abundant, that a few courageous leaders in key places may suffice.
For example, nothing is stopping the Senate from functioning as a truth commission regarding the COVID coup. Since the virus scam is based on lies and misrepresentations by persons of considerable power and prestige, expert questioning under oath before television cameras can let Americans judge for themselves why “medical experts” stigmatized those going to the beach and church – while not objecting, later, to the even greater numbers of Americans rioting in the streets.
State governors, as well, can provide practical leadership to motivate, guide, and legitimize life independent of our dysfunctional ruling class. Several U.S. states never shut down, while others reduced activities far less than the likes of California and New York. Like Sweden’s government, these states’ officials didn’t believe that COVID-19 was the plague and saw individual responsibility as the surest guarantee of safety for all. Indeed, the public would benefit from seeing these states’ governors defend their widely different perspectives on the COVID pandemic—and the results of their policies and decisions.
An honest reckoning, if we can get one, will reveal that the COVID-19 experience in America has only tangentially been about health. It has been, predominantly, a political campaign based on the pretense of health but dedicated to the maintenance of elite control—and it has done far more damage and caused more misery than the coronavirus itself.
- Chinese Econ Data Dump Unexpectedly Bombs As Industrial Production, Retail Sales Miss
Chinese Econ Data Dump Unexpectedly Bombs As Industrial Production, Retail Sales Miss
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 22:18Was that it for China’s miraculous recovery? While China’s economic releases long ago lost any “data” significance and simply represent whatever the politburo wants it to represent, moments ago we had the traditional monthly data dump and it was extremely ugly, with the key items missing badly, and making one wonder if Beijing is no longer eager to convince the world of just how solid the post-covid recovery is but instead is transitioning into a phase that actually reflect the devastating reality.
Here are the highlights:
- Industrial output missed at 4.8%, Exp. 5.2%
- Retail sales not only missed in July but shrank for the 5th months, printing -1.1% Y/Y; vs the Est. 0.1%, failing to recover into the green for the first time since the pandemic began
- Fixed investment came in line, shrinking by -1.6%, same as the -1.6% expected.
- Unemployment came in at 5.7%, unchanged from last month and a completely arbitrary number which captures only whatever Beijing wants it to capture.
Visually:
Some additional metrics for the YTD period:
- Jan.-July Retail Sales -9.9% Y/Y; Est. -9.8%
- Jan.-July Industrial Output -0.4% Y/Y; Est. -0.4%
- Jan.-July Property Dev. Investment Rises 3.4% Y/Y
- End-July Surveyed Jobless Rate Stands at 5.7%
And some commodity metrics:
- China July Crude Oil Output 16.46M Tons, +0.6% Y/Y
- China July Natural Gas Output 14.2BCM, +4.8% Y/Y
- China July Coal Output 317.94M Tons, -3.7% Y/Y
A quick scroll through the various retail sales categories indicate that restaurant and catering fell 11% (actually a slower pace of decline compared to previous months) and there are also falls in clothing, furniture, household electronics and petroleum. One notable observation from Bloomberg’s Ailing Tan: the 12.3% increase in retail sales of automobiles didn’t prop up the headline number, which means that autos are not a good gauge of China’s economic pulse. They have become steadily less correlated to overall economic spending.
As for the “stellar” 5.7% unemployment rates, BofA reminds us that it leaves out about half the workforce, and we know anecdotally that joblessness among migrant laborers is high and likely dragging down consumption.
The data clearly is on the soft soft side with 2 out of 3 metrics missing at a time when China’s PMIs suggest a new Golden Age has been unleashed (and thus discredit themselves) while the slide in retail sales is the biggest worry as it indicates that either the Chinese consumer is tapped out or that Beijing wants to indicate to the world that the Chinese consumer is tapped out. Whatever the right explanation, it means confidence isn’t there yet, and that the virus may not be under control after all so Beijing is giving itself some leeway when things turn ugly again.
In response to the disappointing earnings, Chinese stocks eased back although “China’s Nasdaq”. the tech-heavy ChiNext is holding onto some of its morning gains, trading up 1%. Why? Same as in the US, investors will think that any mildly disappointing news will prompt policy makers to provide liquidity to the financial system, as Bloomberg cheerfully notes. Indeed, Chinese government bonds are rising for a third day, another sign that investors may be expecting this data to inspire policy makers to provide some liquidity to keep the economy on track (or to continue the stealth QE we noted yesterday). The yield on notes due in a decade is down 1 basis point at 2.952%, the lowest in more than a week.
- Satellite Images Reveal North Korean Nuclear Reactor Site "Vulnerable" To "Extreme Weather Events"
Satellite Images Reveal North Korean Nuclear Reactor Site “Vulnerable” To “Extreme Weather Events”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 22:15Geopolitical analysts at 38 North, a website that tracks developments along the 38th parallel that separates North and South Korea, published a new report that sheds light on a potentially dangerous situation in North Korea, one where recent rising floodwaters threatened a nuclear reactor site.
Satellite imagery from August 6-11 shows water levels along the Kuryong River may have damaged pump houses at the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center.
Despite ongoing efforts to improve the embankment along the river against annual flooding, they failed to meet the challenge of this year’s rising waters, which reached the pump houses. More importantly, the flooding exposed how vulnerable the nuclear reactors’ cooling systems are to extreme weather events, in this case, for the potential for damage to the pumps and their power systems, or for clogging of piping systems that draw water from the river. – 38 North
The five-megawatt reactor at the nuclear facility didn’t appear to be operating at the time the images were taken. It’s been rumored this is the facility that the rogue country produces weapons-grade plutonium.
Satellite imagery taken earlier this week appears to show floodwaters didn’t breach any part of the Yongbyon facility’s Uranium Enrichment Plant (UEP), located downstream. There’s also an indication the water level has receded in recent days.
Partial coverage of the area from August 8 and 11 shows the waters have retreated, suggesting that the major facilities within the complex, such as the Uranium Enrichment Plant (UEP), have been spared. -38 North
When comparing satellite imagery from August 6 versus July 22, it becomes clear the water level of the Kuryong River has risen dramatically alongside the nuclear complex.
Although the security wall around the reactor complex was not breached, the water had reached the two pump houses that service the reactors and completely submerged their respective bases. The overfall dam that was built to ensure a constant reservoir of water and is available for cooling the reactors was also fully underwater. -38 North
North Korea’s state media has stayed quiet on the subject. There’s no official report if the pump houses or piping were damaged. If so, this would present significant challenges for cooling the reactor.
In China, record flooding from unprecedented rainstorms has resulted in structural issues within the Three Gorges Dam. Beijing admitted weeks ago that the world’s largest hydroelectric gravity dam on the Yangtze River in Hubei province “deformed slightly.”
- Man Charged With First-Degree Murder In Killing Of 5-Year-Old Boy On Bicycle
Man Charged With First-Degree Murder In Killing Of 5-Year-Old Boy On Bicycle
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 21:55Authored by Zachary Stieber via the Epoch Times (emphasis ours)
Darius Sessoms of North Carolina was arrested and charged with the murder of Cannon Hinnant, a 5-year-old boy. (Wilson Police Department) A 25-year-old North Carolina man was charged with first-degree murder on Wednesday for the killing of 5-year-old Cannon Hinnant in front of his home in Wilson.
Cannon was found suffering from a gunshot wound on Archers Road on Sunday night and lifesaving efforts failed.
Police officers identified Darius Sessoms as the suspect and issued an arrest warrant.
Sessoms was arrested on Monday after a joint operation involving the Wilson Police Department, the U.S. Marshals Service, and other law enforcement agencies. He was found inside a house in Goldsboro.
Sessoms was charged with first-degree murder on Wednesday, a day before Cannon’s funeral, the police department announced. The suspect is being held without bond.
According to witnesses, Sessoms walked up to Cannon while the boy was riding his bicycle and shot him.
“I just don’t understand why he did it. How can you walk up to a little boy, point blank, and put a gun to his head and just shoot him? How could anyone do that?” Charlene Walburn, a neighbor, told ABC 11.
“For a second, I thought, ‘That couldn’t happen.’ People don’t run across the street and kill kids,” Doris Lybrand, another neighbor, told WRAL.
Sessoms lives next door to Austin Hinnant, Cannon’s father.
Cannon Hinnant in an undated photograph. (#JusticeForCannon/GoFundMe) Cannon’s two sisters, aged 7 and 8, reportedly saw the shooting.
Christina Prezioso identified herself as a cousin of Austin Hinnant.
In a GoFundMe fundraiser launched for the family, Prezioso called the shooting “a senseless act.”
“One minute he is enjoying his life, the next it all ends because he rode into his neighbor’s yard,” she wrote.
The cousin described Sessoms as a “coward” and said she hoped justice would be done.
It wasn’t clear whether Sessoms had an attorney. During a court hearing Tuesday, he told the court he planned on hiring his own lawyer and rejected efforts to appoint one, WRAL reported.
A funeral is being held on Sunday at the Shingleton Funeral Home. Rev. Darrell High will hold the funeral.
In an obituary, family members said Cannon leaves behind his parents, three grandparents, several great-grandparents, sisters, and brothers.
People writing on the website said they hope for justice.
“May God hold this family in his loving hands as I know he is sweet Cannon. And comfort their broken hearts as only he can. And bring justice to the evil demon that did this,” one wrote.
“The sadness I feel for this little man and his rights to life being taken away are just awful and disturbing. For the life of me why would anyone want to do this to an innocent little boy just trying to have some fun outdoors with his sibling. There are some sick people in this world that are so evil they should not be allowed to even exist,” another said.
A candlelight vigil outside the Wilson courthouse is planned for Friday night.
- Saliva Test For COVID-19 With "Less Than 1 Second" Results Enters Trial Phase In Israel
Saliva Test For COVID-19 With “Less Than 1 Second” Results Enters Trial Phase In Israel
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 21:35Sure to be welcomed as good news for people returning to offices, factories, and schools this fall who will be subject to regular COVID-19 testing: an Israeli hospital is hosting clinical trials for a new “instant” test which utilizes saliva, instead of the more invasive and uncomfortable deep nasal swab.
The new test method is currently undergoing clinical trials involving hundreds of people at the Center for Geographic Medicine and Tropical Diseases at Sheba Medical Center outside Tel Aviv. It’s purported to show whether someone is positive or negative in less than a second and utilizes artificial intelligence.
Getty Images Hailed as a much cheaper and more convenient testing method especially useful when large groups of people must be quickly tested, it’s so far said to be able to detect the virus at a 95% success rate.
As described in Reuters, it apparently doesn’t even require a swab or direct contact:
Patients rinse their mouth with a saline wash and spit into a vial. This is then examined by a small spectral device that, in simple terms, shines light on the specimen and analyzes the reaction to see if it is consistent with COVID-19.
With machine learning it gets more accurate over time.
Sheba hospital is partnering with the new technology’s developer, the Israel-based firm Newsight Imaging, to bring it to market. It could indeed be a game-changer, also given the projected price-tag of 25 cents for each single test, and $200 for the scanning machine itself.
Reuters/VOA video purports to show how quick and easy the test is:
Some US colleges last month announced that for students to come back to campus, they have to agree to one or possibly up to two COVID-19 tests per week.
We expect a number of private businesses which can’t opt for a remote work option will follow suit.
The current most common test, file image. As Boston Magazine quipped in a recent article the current deep cavity swab method is extremely uncomfortable to many, especially if required on a weekly bases – for example at Tufts University and others: “Oh, and by the way, twice a week someone has to jam a cotton swab into your brain,” the article commented.
A cheap and easy saliva test available globally would most definitely be welcomed in such routine testing environments, and could actually help combat the disease more effectively, given how fast people with exposure could be isolated.
- Bridgewater Backs Chinese Assets In Polarized World
Bridgewater Backs Chinese Assets In Polarized World
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 21:15By Ye Xie, Bloomberg macro commentator
There is some uneasiness seeping into the bond market.
Yields on 30-year Treasuries rose to the highest in five weeks after an auction disappointed. Higher yields are also consistent with the recent better-than-expected data, including the jobless claims and CPI. While the Fed will need to keep yields low to support the economy, there may be air pockets occasionally for rates to rise amid heavy bond supply and when data points to a cyclical recovery. If Friday’s retail sales exceed expectations again, it may add further pressure to the bond market.
In a sense, central banks are implicitly guaranteeing low rates for governments to borrow. This monetary-fiscal coordination is required because “printed money can make it into the hands of those who need it through the fiscal package,” Karen Karniol-Tambour, head of investment research at Bridgewater Associates, said in a Bloomberg TV interview.
In this new era of near-zero rates and quasi-monetization of debt, nominal bonds are a lot less useful in one’s portfolio, while gold and inflation-linked bonds have added value. Another feature of the current investment environment is that a more segmented world adds a sense of urgency for asset diversification. She said:
“When you are having a lot of pressure around fragmentation, pressure on companies to have their production be more localized, pressure to think through whether you will be allowed to move things across borders, and something that could turn into outright conflict, it is not a sensible time to say ‘let me have my investments in just one of the three poles’” of the U.S., Europe or China.
Chinese policy makers seem to be responding to both paradigm shifts – zero rates and fragmentation – a move that would encourage capital inflows to the nation’s markets. First,
- China has repeatedly pledged not to follow the developed world and pursue unconventional policies. Its 10-year bond yield, at close to 3%, stands tall for an A+ rated country.
- Second, President Xi Jinping has made a strategic shift to a so-called “dual circulation” strategy, emphasizing self-sufficiency in supply and demand. Already, Chinese defense, consumer and satellite stocks have outperformed lately.
The investment conclusion is easy: “I would recommend building the best portfolio you can with China bonds, because the rates are higher, and whatever collection of Chinese stocks you can put together to best reflect what that economy is like, including some national and local brands,” Karniol-Tamboursaid.
- US Sends B-2 Stealth Bombers To 'Warn' China As PLA Expands Live-Fire Drills Off Taiwan
US Sends B-2 Stealth Bombers To ‘Warn’ China As PLA Expands Live-Fire Drills Off Taiwan
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 20:55This week just as major Chinese live-firing naval drills were being conducted north of Taiwan, the US flew three of B-2 stealth bombers to its Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean.
British daily The Times describes that the American bomber movements were to address the growing Chinese threat over Taiwan on the very eve the PLA drill kicked off: “It is the first time the nuclear-capable strategic bombers have been sent to the remote island since 2016, in an indication of the growing concern about China’s intentions towards Taiwan,” according to a report Thursday.
US B-2 Stealth Bomber, U.S. Air Force photo China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) held a series of multi-branch drills in the Taiwan Strait and northern areas this week. According to a PLA statement it’s in response to external countries sending the “wrong” signals to Taiwan’s pro-independence forces – clearly directed at Washington given the high level American delegation currently visiting Taipei – which Beijing says is a threat to peace and stability.
Washington is sending its own counter-message in its stepped up presence in the Indo-Pacific, as The Times continues: “The bombers flew across the Pacific from Whiteman air force base in Missouri to land at Diego Garcia, part of the British Indian Ocean Territory. With their advanced stealth technology, the B-2s can penetrate enemy territory without alerting air-defence radars.”
This also comes days after New Zealand and Australian based defense sources accused the PLA of building up amphibious assault units along the coast just opposite Taiwan. Satellite images which circulated were presented as depicting additional marine amphibious craft activity near the self-ruled island.
US surveillance aircraft appearing like commercial airliner constantly fly near China. They even follow civil aviation flights to confuse Chinese radars. This poses a threat to safety of civil aircraft over the South China Sea. It’s shameful for the US military to do so. pic.twitter.com/MHRDuJklCW
— Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) August 12, 2020
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Newsweek and other publications emphasized the drills are significant and aggressive, meant to send a clear signal:
Chinese military-tied media aired footage Monday of troops conducting large-scale air defense drills in southeast Guangdong province, which lies across the Taiwan Strait from the self-ruling island still claimed by the central government in Beijing and borders semi-autonomous Hong Kong, also the subject of international tensions. The exercises involved advanced systems such as the double 35-millimeter-barreled PGZ-09 and the quadruple 25-millimeter-barreled PGZ-95.
Diego Garcia remains a key remote outpost from which the US can deploy rapidly in places ranging from the Middle East to Southeast Asia.
Meanwhile, state-backed Global Times Editor Hu Xijin tweeted that the ongoing PLA drills off Taiwan underscore it “is capable of launching a full-scale attack and capturing the island within hours, leaving US military no time to react. It’s a clear warning to Taiwan”.
Official PLA military images show expansive drills around Taiwan, including air, naval, and ground forces:
🇨🇳Chinese military recently held drills directed at #Taiwan secessionist. The drills were a ‘necessary action’ to safeguard sovereignty. Confirmed by Senior Colonel Zhang Chunhui, spokesman for the Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army #PLA. #China (Pic: File) pic.twitter.com/7qJYSKGxdb
— Shen Shiwei沈诗伟 (@shen_shiwei) August 13, 2020
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And alarming for the potential for conflict, whether unintentioned or otherwise, the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan has been seen “circling near Taiwan” since the weekend.
Earlier in the week Taiwan’s defense ministry described that “Chinese fighters’ deliberate harassment has ruined the current cross-strait status and has seriously damaged the safety of the region.” However, this has become a somewhat ‘routine’ occurrence, but now all the more dangerous given the increasing US naval and aerial presence in the area.
- America Desperately Needs A Second Opinion
America Desperately Needs A Second Opinion
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 20:35Authored by Jeff Harris via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,
Doctors are human and subject to human mistakes. Even doctors with exceptional “expert” credentials are still human and like all humans fallible.
That’s why patients often seek a second or even third opinion from other expert physicians BEFORE implementing a treatment program. That’s especially true if said treatment is potentially life threatening or subject to severe side effects that may be as deadly as the illness itself.
The Mayo Clinic published a study three years ago with the headline, “Three Reasons Why Getting a Second Opinion is Worth it.” It said in part:
The study has found that more than 1 in 5 patients referred for a second opinion-for many different conditions-may have been incorrectly diagnosed by their health providers.
Dr. James Naessens, SC. D. of Mayo Clinic’s campus in Rochester, led the study that looked at medical records for 286 patients whose healthcare provider referred them to Mayo Clinic for a second opinion. Dr. Naessens found that 21% of the time the final diagnosis was completely different from the original diagnosis!
But the Mayo Clinic is not alone in their recommendation of second opinions. Here’s what the Cleveland Clinic has to say about second opinions:
When your health-and perhaps even your life-is at stake, we want to make sure you are making the most informed decision about your diagnosis and treatment plan. . .
Here’s what Johns Hopkins says about second opinions:
An accurate diagnosis is essential to ensure that the correct and most effective treatment is given. Getting a second opinion on a diagnosis can reverse a diagnosis or alter the treatment plan.
So the Mayo Clinic, the Cleveland Clinic and Johns Hopkins, some of the most highly respected, prestigious medical facilities in the world unanimously recommend second medical opinions.
Medical Malpractice
Somehow, the best medical advice from the nation’s most respected medical institutions recommending a second opinion was completely ignored when Covid-19 showed up.
Instead, a handful of alleged government medical “experts” advised the political class to use illegal, unconstitutional powers to lockdown the nation, with the threat that millions would die if we didn’t obey their dictates.
So why did the political class, those elected by the people to represent the people’s interest, not insist on a second opinion?
Why were they willing, some even eager, to ignore the peoples guaranteed Constitutional rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness?
Why were they willing to ignore the best medical advice to seek a second opinion BEFORE destroying the livelihoods of millions of hardworking American’s?
It’s not like there were no independent medical experts sounding the alarm about the Covid fraud and the ridiculous mass hysteria being whipped up by the politicians and the media.
Literally hundreds of highly credentialed medical experts across the globe are on record as to the absurdity of the actions recommended by government medical “experts”. One of those experts, Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford University assembled a group of like-minded medical experts this past March to offer a second opinion to President Trump. They wanted him to know their professional assessment of Covid-19 was that yes it was a flu bug but locking down the nation was a ridiculously unnecessary move that could cause more harm than good.
Dr. Ioannidis said it was like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Apparently President Trump gave in to his political advisors and ignored the second opinion advice of Dr. Ioannidis and his associates.
Instead President Trump should immediately convene a blue ribbon panel of independent medical experts with no ties to direct government funding or pharmaceutical control for a genuine second opinion. Then, act on their recommendations regardless of the hue and cry from the political class and their media enablers.
America needs a second opinion on Covid-19, and we need it acted on now!
- CentCom Says Iran Is 'Top Priority' As Sabotaged Natanz Facility Set To Boost Nuclear Fuel Production
CentCom Says Iran Is ‘Top Priority’ As Sabotaged Natanz Facility Set To Boost Nuclear Fuel Production
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 20:15This week CENTCOM chief Gen. Kenneth McKenzie said that Iran is the “top priority” for American forces deployed across the Middle East.
“As I look at the theater, we remain focused on Iran as our central problem. This headquarters focuses on Iran, executing deterrence activities against Iran, and doing those things,” McKenzie said Wednesday at a think tank hosted defense conference.
Despite the Islamic State long being driven underground, though the Pentagon has lately claimed the terror group is making a comeback, McKenzie went so far as to blame Iran for any resurgent ISIS activity: “The threat against our forces from Shiite militant groups has caused us to put resources that we would otherwise use against ISIS to provide for our own defense and that has lowered our ability to work effectively against them,” the CENTCOM commander said.
Getty Images: Technicians work in a uranium conversion facility near Tehran. Recall that the administration has long argued ISIS is the main reason for a continued US troops presence in northeast Syria. Despite Trump’s “secure the oil” statements, the Pentagon’s official reason for being there is to counter ISIS and ensure it can’t regain a foothold. Across the border in Iraq, there’s growing pressure for all US bases and deployments to exit amid tensions with Iran-backed Iraqi Shia militias.
Meanwhile, following last month’s headline-grabbing fire and explosion at Iran’s Natanz nuclear plant, widely seen as most likely an act of sabotage, Iran is actually moving to boost production of nuclear fuel at the damaged site.
Bloomberg details in a new report that Iranian authorities are “transfering new generations of advanced centrifuges used to enrich uranium — the heavy metal needed for nuclear power and weapons — from a pilot facility into a new hall at its primary fuel plant in Natanz, according to a one-page restricted International Atomic Energy Agency document seen by Bloomberg.”
Natanz facility aftermath to the July 2 incident. If the July 2 incident was indeed an act of Israeli or US sabotage, it apparently didn’t do the job of derailing potential uranium enrichment capabilities at the site. There is consensus at this point that it was a covert attack, possibly via cyber operations.
Bloomberg concludes: “The addition of advanced centrifuges to Hall B of the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant — another technical violation of its 2015 agreement with world powers — suggests that last month’s attack at a nearby machine shop didn’t have the intended effect of disrupting production.”
- Trump Admin Designates Confucius Institute As Communist China Foreign Mission
Trump Admin Designates Confucius Institute As Communist China Foreign Mission
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 19:55Authored by Ben Wilson via SaraACarter.com,
The United States announced Thursday it is requiring the center that manages the Communist China funded Confucius Institute in the United States to register as a foreign mission. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the institute is “an entity advancing Beijing’s global propaganda and malign influence campaign on U.S. campuses and K-12 classrooms.”
Workers with the Institute in America will not be kicked out but top U.S. diplomat for East Asia David Stilwell said universities should take a “hard look at the activities they are engaging in on campuses,” as reported by WKZO.
Designation of the Confucius Institute U.S. Center as a Foreign Mission of the PRC Foreign Mission of the PRC
The Trump Administration has made it a priority to seek fair and reciprocal treatment from the People’s Republicof China. For more than four decades, Beijing has of China. For more than four decades, Beijing has enjoyed free and open access to U.S. society, while denying that same access to Americans and other foreigners in China. Furthermore, the PRC has taken advantage of America’s openness to undertake large scaleand well-funded propaganda efforts and influence and well-funded propaganda efforts and influence operations in this country.
Today, the Department of State designated the Confucius Institute U.S. Center as a foreign mission of the PRC, recognizing CIUS for what it is: an entity advancing Beijing’s global propaganda and malign influence campaign on U.S. campuses and K-12 classrooms. Confucius Institutes are funded by the PRC and part of the Chinese Communist Party’s global influence and propaganda apparatus.
The goal of these actions is simple: to ensure that American educators and school administrators can make informed choices about whether these CCP-backed programs should be allowed to continue, and if so, in what fashion. Universities around the country and around the world are examining the Confucius Institutes’ curriculum and the scope of Beijing’s influence in their education systems.
The United States wants to ensure education systems. The United States wants to ensure that students on U.S. campuses have access to Chinese language and cultural offerings free from the manipulation of the Chinese Communist Party and its proxies.
Pompeo’s agency details the issues being the curriculum and influence the Institute is having in the education system across the nation.
Stilwell noted that there were about 500 Confucius classrooms in the United States affiliated with a university-based Confucius Institute.
According to the U.S. non-profit organization, the National Association of Scholars, there were 75 Confucius Institutes in the United States as of June, including 66 at colleges and universities.
The association contends that the institutes compromise academic freedom, defy Western norms of transparency, and are inappropriate on campuses.
China rejects that criticism, calling it politicized and baseless.
This follows previous measures taken by the State Department to label media outlets funded by the Communist China Party as foreign missions.
- As Shares Soar, SoftBank Pumps Another $1.1BN Into WeWork
As Shares Soar, SoftBank Pumps Another $1.1BN Into WeWork
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 19:35Somehow, thanks to the global crush of liquidity and a broad-based rally in tech SoftBank Group’s shares are riding high, making Paul Singer and Elliott look like activist geniuses once again.
Thanks to the global crush of liquidity and a broad-based rally in tech shares (with some programmatic buybacks thrown in the mix, as upping SoftBank’s buybacks was critical to Singer’s plan), SoftBank is finding itself back in investors’ good graces, and Masayoshi Son is claiming vindication.
And what better way to telegraph Masa’s great comeback than by doubling down on one of SoftBank’s biggest blunders: WeWork. SoftBank is plowing $1.1 billion into WeWork to help it weather the coronavirus pandemic, Bloomberg reports, citing an internal staff memo.
The decision isn’t exactly a huge surprise. It certainly fits with the theme of SoftBank’s latest quarterly earnings release, whereby the firm saw its earnings bounce back from record lows, posting a $12 billion profit, compared with a $13 billion loss during the same period from a year prior. In reality, much of this boost is due to SoftBank shedding its shares in its US subsidiary Sprint and T-Mobile US.
Per BBG, the new SoftBank money is “another sign of SoftBank’s continued support for our business,” boosts WeWork’s cash on hand to $4.1 billion, according to a memo from SoftBank Chief Financial Officer Kimberly Ross.
Will that be enough to allow the now dramatically-downsized WeWork to hang on until the pandemic lifts, when there might be an opportunity – in theory, at least – to profit from changing work habits?
That’s a big if.
Of course, the BBG story didn’t say anything about an ongoing lawsuit against SoftBank filed by WeWork’s co-founder and former CEO Adam Neumann, who attacked SoftBank for renegging on some $3 billion promised to Neumann and a group of other early shareholders, mostly VC funds.
At the time, SoftBank said it would funnel that money back into WeWork. We guess this is them making good on that promise, for better or worse.
- Fake ID Seizures, Mostly From China, On the Rise
Fake ID Seizures, Mostly From China, On the Rise
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2020 – 19:15Authored by Petr Svab via the Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has been seizing an increasing number of fake IDs, including driver’s licenses, in recent years. Most come from China and are good enough to fool an average person, an agency official said.
Fake IDs seized by U.S. Customs and Border Protection. (CBP) In 2019, CBP seized more than 78,000 fake documents, an increase from almost 57,000 a year earlier, and some 26,000 in 2015. This year, the agency is on pace to intercept even more, with nearly 55,000 documents seized as of Aug. 10, according to data provided by CBP to The Epoch Times.
“The vast majority of fake IDs we seize are coming from China,” said CBP Memphis Port Director Michael Neipert in an emailed response. “Our CBP officers are highly effective in detecting fraudulent documents, so for us, these are obvious fakes. I do consider these to be high-quality fake IDs because they can definitely fool the average person.”
The majority “are of an age range that indicate that they are using these IDs to drink underage,” he said.
“Of greater concern are the fake IDs that do not fall into this category. We do seize some fake IDs that are clearly not intended for underage drinking. Obviously, fake IDs could be used for a wide range of nefarious activities. This is why we make it a priority to intercept these licenses and work with our investigative partners to ensure these offenses are prosecuted.”
At Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport, CBP seized nearly 20,000 fake driver’s licenses through June 30.
“Take a look at these IDs—same person, different bio info,” CBP Chicago wrote on Twitter.
The IDs arrived from China, Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and South Korea and were, in the majority of cases, headed for neighboring states, mainly for “college-age students,” the CBP stated.
One concern is that the bar code attached to the Michigan licenses actually worked.
The fraudulent identity documents can lead to identity theft and other issues, including fraud linked to immigration-related crimes such as human smuggling and human trafficking, the agency stated.
Fake IDs can also be used by individuals associated with terrorism “to minimize scrutiny from travel screening measures.”
In November 2019, the CBP said it intercepted more than 5,000 fake IDs, or the blank cards used to make them, in Louisville, Kentucky, sent from China. They were headed to various states nationwide, including New York.
One of the IDs was headed to a convicted child rapist located in New York. According to authorities, the individual “entices minors with alcohol and counterfeit IDs before engaging in illicit activity.”
Timothy Lemaux, CBP port director for Dallas-Fort Worth, warned people against seeking to obtain fraudulent identity documents overseas, as counterfeiters will access their personal information.
“What is most disconcerting about these interceptions, besides the volume in which we are experiencing, is the ease in which so many young people freely share their personal information with counterfeiters abroad,” Lemaux said in a statement, Fox News reported.
“We’ll continue to collaborate with local law enforcement to educate the public, and anyone who is contemplating purchasing a counterfeit ID online, on the potential dangers of sharing your personal, identifiable information with a criminal element.”
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