Today’s News 14th March 2022

• US Ally Saudi Arabia Just Beheaded 81 People In One Day
  US Ally Saudi Arabia Just Beheaded 81 People In One Day

  At a moment much of the globe and international media has its entire focus on the Russian war in Ukraine, Saudi Arabia on Saturday carried out a mass execution of 81 people for a wide range of what state sources called “terrorism” related crimes. 

  The executed individuals – which is being reported as likely by beheading – were deemed “guilty of committing multiple heinous crimes that left a large number of civilians and law enforcement officers dead,” according to the Saudi Press Agency.

  

  Some of the individuals killed appear to be linked to the ongoing war in neighboring Yemen, which the United Nations has for the past two years labeled as the “world’s worst humanitarian crisis”. 

  According to The Hill, based on Saudi official sources, “Specific crimes of the individuals included: membership in terrorist organizations such as ISIS, Al Qaeda and the Houthi rebels of Yemen; targeting Saudi residents; traveling to regional conflict zones to join terrorist organizations; targeting members of the Saudi government; killing and maiming law enforcement officers; and targeting police vehicles with land mines.”

  “The Kingdom will continue to take a strict and unwavering stance against terrorism and extremist ideologies that threaten the stability of the entire world,”  the Agency added in announcing the executions.

  Off the radar of most, Saudi Arabia just beheaded 81 people in 1 day

  — Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) March 12, 2022

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  According to ABC News and other Western press outlets this marks the single largest mass execution ever recorded in the kingdom:

  “Saudi Arabia on Saturday executed 81 people convicted of crimes ranging from killings to belonging to militant groups, the largest known mass execution carried out in the kingdom in its modern history,” the report said.

  #Breaking: Foreign backed #Saudi Monarchy commits a massacre against nearly 100 prisoners including dozens of protesters in the largest ever mass execution in the country’s history . #MBS , his father, @MhmdAlissa & @pss_ar are involved in this crime.

  — Ali AlAhmed (@AliAlAhmed_en) March 12, 2022

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  “The number of executed surpassed even the toll of a January 1980 mass execution for the 63 militants convicted of seizing the Grand Mosque in Mecca in 1979, the worst-ever militant attack to target the kingdom and Islam’s holiest site,” ABC described of the prior record.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 03/14/2022 – 02:45

• Growing Number Of Countries Identify Cases Of 'Deltacron' Variant
  Growing Number Of Countries Identify Cases Of ‘Deltacron’ Variant

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A growing number of cases of a hybrid COVID-19 variant dubbed “Deltacron” are being identified, including several cases in the United States.

  

  Researchers with Helix, a California-based genomic company, found two cases of COVID-19 infection caused by a hybrid of the Delta and Omicron variants, while researchers in France determined 18 people were infected by the hybrid.

  Cases have also been detected in the Netherlands and Denmark, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

  Delta was the dominant version of COVID-19, in many countries in 2021 but was displaced in most of them by Omicron by the end of the year.

  Experts so far haven’t seen any difference in the characteristics of patients who are infected with the hybrid and haven’t seen any signs that the Deltacron causes more severe cases of COVID-19, Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s COVID-19 technical lead, told reporters in a recent briefing.

  “Unfortunately, we do expect to see recombinants, because this is what viruses do, they change over time,” she said, adding later that, “this pandemic is far from over.”

  In the United States, Helix scientists and collaborators with the University of Washington Medical Center and Thermo Fisher Scientific sequenced 29,719 samples between November 2021 and February 2022 and identified 20 cases where a person was “co-infected” with the Delta and Omicron variants and two additional cases where the infection was pinpointed as being caused by the variant resulting from the recombination of Delta and Omicron.

  “Our study demonstrates the existence of co-infections, the presence of a recombinant population in at least one of these co-infections, and the existence of two infections consisting almost entirely of multiple copies of a recombinant virus. However, the mechanism by which a recombinant virus comes to dominate an infection remains somewhat of a puzzle,” researchers wrote in the study, which was obtained by The Epoch Times prior to publication. It’s scheduled to be published as a preprint on the server medRxiv in the coming days.

  Possibilities include the two infections starting as co-infections before the hybrid virus outcompeted the Delta and Omicron variants, according to the researchers, who were backed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health.

  In France, a team funded by the government identified three cases infected by the recombinant, following earlier identification of 17 others, the team reported in a preprint study.

  Professor Phillipe Colson, one of the authors, told The Epoch Times in an email that there are too few cases right now “to figure out the epidemiological and clinical features of this hybrid.”

  “We wonder what a large part of an Omicron BA.1 spike (without the N-terminal domain) may change in a Delta genome regarding virus transmissibility and clinical presentation,” he added.

  Scientists in Cyprus were said to initially report the hybrid in January, though some experts said the identified strain appeared to be a result of lab contamination.

  John Moore, a virologist with Cornell University, said he wasn’t sure the more recently reported hybrid was real or not; both the U.S. and French teams said their results are legitimate.

  Regardless, for now, there’s no reason to worry, Moore told The Epoch Times in an email.

  “What’s the point? If it’s not real, it will soon fizzle out. If it is real, what good does worrying about it do? Let’s see what emerges over time, but I need a LOT more than what’s here to be concerned about yet another ‘scariant’ story,” he said.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 03/14/2022 – 02:00

• Why Are Leftists And Elitists So Happy About Skyrocketing Gas Prices?
  Why Are Leftists And Elitists So Happy About Skyrocketing Gas Prices?

  Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

  There is a narrative being spread within leftist/socialist circles by media celebrities and White House cronies, and it is this: Paying high prices for oil and gas is actually a GOOD thing.

  But why is it a good thing to these people? How do they benefit?

  

  Spoiler Alert: It has nothing to do with punishing Russia economically.

  As I write this article crude prices have somewhat stabilized around $110-$115 a barrel, which translates to a little over $4 a gallon for gas across most of the country. I don’t expect this to last very long. My guess is that regular gasoline will end up in the $7 to $8 per gallon range before US shale oil roars back and balances out the market. I realize that this is a conservative estimate and perhaps a best case scenario. Gas could go much higher depending on speculation in oil markets as well as continued government interference from the Biden Administration.

  The big secret is that gas prices were already going to inflate to epic highs, the Ukraine event is not a catalyst, it’s just adding a little petro to the house fire. The fact is, there are some people out there that are desperate for prices to go much higher regardless of what happens in Ukraine.

  This past week, late night “comedian” and establishment shill Stephen Colbert declared that he was willing to pay as much as $15 a gallon for gas, because he owns a Tesla (this is the same guy that danced around with walking/talking syringes to promote experimental covid vaccines for pharmaceutical giant Pfizer). To understand elitist clowns like Colbert you have to realize that he is a rather new iteration of the old Operation Mockingbird propaganda model.

  Let’s set aside the prospect that Colbert is a complete idiot who doesn’t seem to grasp that the electricity that charges his Tesla is most likely generated in part or in full by natural gas, oil or coal. The cost of charging up his car is going to inflate right along with normal energy prices. Instead, let’s consider the possibility that Colbert is simply regurgitating a narrative that was assigned to him, just as he has done in the past.

  Decades ago, Americans were fed lies and misinformation primarily by the corporately controlled mainstream media because we used to care about what the MSM had to say. Today, almost no one cares about the MSM and their dismal audience numbers prove that. There are alternative media channels on YouTube and alt-news websites that crush CNN and MSNBC numbers. We dominate them. That said, there are still leftist outlets that get high traffic, and they are primarily comedy shows.

  Colbert still enjoys hefty audience numbers of around 1 million of more viewers per video because this is how younger people have learned to digest their news content – through mediocre comedy. This model was rather successful in the old days of Comedy Central and the Daily Show with John Stewart. I will say that Stewart was at least fair in that he criticized his own side almost as often as he criticized the political right. But, that kind of self examination no longer exists on the left.

  Colbert in particular must have been invited to a gay old time at Bohemian Grove or some other elitist getaway camp because he now acts as if Biden’s arm is halfway up his posterior, controlling him like a sock puppet. His show certainly receives ad revenues from Pfizer considering his parent company CBS has extensive marketing deals with them, but his relationship with the White House is a little less clear. What we do know is that Biden has been very active in attempting to reinforce his already comfortable relationship with social media companies and mainstream journalists; so why not late night talk show hosts also?

  There’s more than a few talking heads out there promoting the “expensive gas is good” idea. There’s a host of politicians and celebrities including the ever obnoxious George Takei of Star Trek fame who claims that paying higher gas prices is worth it if it means doing damage to Putin. Then there’s White House Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who argues that the solution to high gas prices is, once again, for Americans to start buying electric cars and for the government to spend billions in taxpayer dollars to develop fleets of electric buses.

  “Today is about how we can deliver cleaner air, a better climate, affordable transportation, and good jobs all at once…” Buttigieg said. Obviously, none of this is true.

  Biden and many other Democrats have been enthusiastic about high gas prices as if the American people are confusing a win for a loss. Interestingly, only a few years ago in 2019 Democratic governors demanded an end to federal gas taxes to alleviate consumer prices. This was back when gas was only around $3 a gallon nationally. So what changed?

  It should be noted that many of the policies being presented to the American public as solutions to Russian oil sanctions and energy inflation are identical to policies that were part of the Green New Deal, a program designed to completely cut off the US from oil using carbon controls and carbon taxation. Isn’t it convenient that the Russian/Ukraine crisis has facilitated a vehicle for such policies to be implemented?

  There’s a few problems, though.

  For one, Russian oil only makes up around 3% to 4% of US crude imports. The media and the White House have attempted to misrepresent the percentage by adding in “refined products” from Russia to boost the numbers as high as 8%. This is false. In fact, Russian crude is a tiny portion of foreign oil imports to the US.

  This means that cutting Russian oil exports to the US has NOTHING to do with rising prices. The two things are unrelated in terms of supply and demand. Celebrities like Stephen Colbert and George Takei look doubly stupid because sanctions not only don’t hurt the Russians, they also don’t explain why prices are so high in America.

  Biden’s electric car initiatives are strange in light of the fact that inflation is already straining people’s pocketbooks yet the government is suggesting those same struggling Americans buy $50,000 to $100,000 vehicles. None of this actually addresses the root causes of the inflation we face. Rather, Biden and leftists seem to be saying “We aren’t interested in fixing the problem, you are just going to have to adapt in the ways we want you to adapt…”

  Clearly, the establishment does not want the public to question the real triggers for the inflationary disaster we are witnessing. This is illustrated very well in an article I found by CBS declaring that any suggestions that high oil prices are somehow tied to Biden’s electric car program is “conspiracy theory” related to QAnon.

  This is bizarre. For one, there really aren’t many people out there suggesting that high oil prices are only about forcing people to buy electric cars (and CBS gives no proof of this narrative). That said, I live in the world of conspiracy reality, not conspiracy “theory.” What I do see on a regular basis are people pointing out that gas inflation and overall inflation started LONG before Russia invaded Ukraine; it’s just that now Biden has a scapegoat to blame high prices on while also instituting Green New Deal actions.

  Joe Biden and his shameless press secretary Jen Psaki have consistently argued that Putin is the primary cause of inflationary pressures, but inflation in the US hit a 40 year high as early as December of last year; even the World Economic Forum admits this.

  CBS and other corporate media outlets seem to be aware of the truth and the complaints that are about to spread across the country and they are attempting to preempt the unrest by calling anyone that questions the narrative a “crazy tinfoil hatter.”

  Here are the facts:

  The US Dollar is not only the world reserve currency, it is also the global petro-currency. Meaning, almost all oil to this point has been bought and sold using dollars.

  When the dollar faces aggressive inflation and devaluation, one of the very first signals or warning signs is higher oil prices. As the dollar fails, oil prices will spike. This can sometimes be mitigated by a flood of supply on the market as we saw under Trump (the US was a net exporter of oil only a couple of year ago), but the bottom line is that eventually dollar devaluation wins and oil goes higher. This warning signal is a problem for the establishment because they don’t want the public to realize that dollar devaluation is the issue. If the public knew that, then the public would realize that the establishment elites are the cause.

  In turn, the elites and the Biden Admin are using the Ukraine war as a distraction to divert blame. Russian oil sanctions have little to no bearing on US oil supplies, but massive fiat printing of dollars by the Federal Reserve does.

  The central bank has created tens of trillions of dollars from thin air since the credit crash of 2008 in order to hold the US economy back from complete deflationary collapse. But this was always a stop-gap and the Fed and the establishment knew that the resulting inflation would eventually strike, it was only a matter of time.

  In 2020 alone, the Federal Reserve created $6 trillion of new money supply in the wake of foolish and unnecessary nationwide covid shutdowns. This in combination with the destabilization in markets caused by the response to the pandemic is leading to expanding inflationary pressures. THIS IS A FACT. It is not covid. It is not Russia. The cause of inflation is and always will be dollar printing by the Fed. PERIOD. Everything else is peripheral to the primary culprit.

  Beyond the advantage of using Russia as a smokescreen to hide their culpability for destructive inflation, the establishment is also very interested in a carbon control agenda. These same elites have been calling for higher gas prices for years. Why? Because higher gas prices would force the public to accept the Green New Deal agenda as the only alternative. Carbon controls mean governments would be able to micro-manage every aspect of business, manufacturing, trade, even the way we function in our homes or the number of children we are allowed to have.

  For those that actually believe in global warming nonsense posited by leftists and government paid researchers, I would remind them that even the NOAA admits that in the past century temperatures have risen a mere 1 Degree Celsius.That’s right, just one degree in over a hundred years. Gee, that’s terrifying. Where do I sign my life and freedoms away? I don’t want to have to deal with a more thorough tan.

  Furthermore, there is no hard scientific proof whatsoever that this 1 degree increase was caused by carbon emissions. None. Zip. Zero. There are plenty of rigged experiments and rigged data that have been exposed in the past, but nothing concrete to show any correlation between carbon and rising temps. (I’ll give you a hint of what has the most influence on Earth’s temperatures – It’s the size of one million Earths, it’s on fire, and you can often see it hovering above us in the sky).

  Carbon emissions policies serve no practical purpose but they do serve a nefarious purpose as a means to dictate the lives of the average citizen on a micro level.

  It is perhaps not coincidental that puppets like Stephen Colbert and other leftists have suggested that $15 is a fair price for gasoline. Independent studies by groups like the Institute for Energy Research show that Green New Deal measures including carbon taxes would ultimately result in gas spiking to around $13 per gallon. Add in some market speculation and prices would probably plateau around $15. But hey, if prices are already hitting historic highs because of inflation and war, then why not go along with carbon restrictions as well? No one will be able to afford the cost of driving anywhere anyway. See how that works?

  To summarize, the elites are happy about rising oil prices today because first, they now have a perfect scapegoat for the disasters inflation will reap; disasters they are responsible for. And second, they now have a backdoor way to introduce their carbon agenda, starting with forced public dependency on expensive and less efficient green technologies and slowly progressing towards total carbon restrictions.

  Average leftists are happy about rising gas prices because they ignorantly believe that sanctions on  Russian oil hurt Putin.  They also ignorantly believe in global warming and they don’t realize how drastically our standard of living will be reduced in the name of carbon dictatorship. In other words, this isn’t a conspiracy to force people to buy electric cars; most people can’t afford a Tesla anyway. But it is a conspiracy to undermine our prosperity and our freedoms through inflationary crisis as well as green energy mandates. Leftists have no understanding of this. They are happy because they are dumb.

  *  *  *

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  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 23:45

• Massive Fire Rocks Major Grocery Logistics Center In Taiwan
  Massive Fire Rocks Major Grocery Logistics Center In Taiwan

  A massive fire has broken out at a northern Taiwan logistics center for the 8th largest retailer in the world.

  

  According to Taiwan News (citing CNA), officials in the northern Taiwan city of Taoyuan received a report early Monday of a massive blaze at the warehouse in the city’s Yangmei District at the Carrefour Logistics Center.

  73 firefighters, 23 fire trucks, 8 tanker trucks and 4 ambulances were dispatched to the scene, where according to reports, nobody has been trapped in the facility.

  According to the fire department, the fire appears to have started on the first floor of the two-story structure. There are no hazardous items believed to be inside.

  The entire facility is currently engulfed in flames, and smoke can be seen billowing into the sky from several kilometers away. An investigation into the cause of the fire and damage assessment are currently underway. –Taiwan News

  Carrefour, a French multinational that emphasizes in hypermarkets, confirmed that a fire had broken out, but all personnel were immediately evacuated and there were no injuries.

  With pundits speculating that Taiwan could be the next geopolitical hotspot after Ukraine – for various obvious reasons – any local accidents will prompt heightened interest whether foul play may be involved.

  Photos via Taiwan News from various sources:

  

  

  

  

   

   

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 23:35

• "Media Isn't Warning You" That US Careening Towards Food Crisis 
  “Media Isn’t Warning You” That US Careening Towards Food Crisis 

  Two weeks after the Russia-Ukraine crisis began, the world is quickly moving toward a food crisis that could affect millions of people. A spillover of the crisis could soon spark agricultural mayhem in the US. 

  The curtailment of agricultural exports from Russia and Ukraine will have dramatic knock-on effects on global food supplies. Both countries are known as the ‘breadbasket of the world’ and are responsible for a quarter of the international wheat trade, about a fifth of corn, and 12% of all calories traded globally. Another major problem is access to fertilizers, as Russia has banned exports of the nutrients. 

  

  It’s not whether or not there will be a food crisis. It’s how big that crisis will be. 

  We’ve already noted a handful of emerging market countries to monitor as the Russian invasion is choking off grain exports to them and causing prices to rise, which may result in social unrest. Even in the Western world, agricultural markets have not been immune, and higher prices have stung consumers.  

  A tweet from Douglas Karr, the founder of the businesses blog Martech Zone, made the point the “media isn’t even warning you” a food crisis in America is emerging. 

  Karr said he spoke with numerous folks in the food industry who said farmers in the South and Midwest are having trouble procuring fertilizer to grow crops ahead of planting season. He said farmers in the “Midwest are switching,” likely referring to crops that need fewer nutrients because they “can’t get nitrogen nor fertilizer.”

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  Convo with farm today:
  – Meat processors booked out a year because stockpiling beef.
  – Farmers in South can’t get fertilizer for crops now.
  – Farmers in Midwest are switching, can’t get nitrogen nor fertilizer.
  Buckle up, folks! The media isn’t even warning you. #economy

  — Douglas Karr (@douglaskarr) March 11, 2022

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  Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, the global food system was strained. Snarled supply chains and adverse weather conditions in top growing regions of the world resulted in low crop yields and rising prices. The supply shock of Ukraine will amplify the crisis as the UN warned global food prices could jump 8%-20% from here (prices are already at record highs). 

  

  Responding to Karr’s viral tweet, some people said they were buying a freezer to panic hoard food supplies as the worst food crisis has yet to come. 

  “Likely getting a 2nd chest freezer soon and stuffing it with meats/frozen vegetables/etc. Also, it looks like “preppers” who were dismissed or made fun of last decade are about to be set on being right,” one person said. 

  Another person said, “Read this and then understand why in the last 6 months several publications have been grooming us to accept eating bugs. All of this was planned. Buy a 2nd freezer, and stock it. Soon.” 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 23:15

• Covid, Weak Credit Spark Talk Of China Rate Cut
  Covid, Weak Credit Spark Talk Of China Rate Cut

  By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and analyst

  Three things we learned last week:

  1. China’s worst Covid outbreak since the early days of the pandemic and disappointing bank lending data add pressure for further policy easing. Domestic infections topped 1,000 a day, prompting a lockdown of a city of 9 million people in the northeast. The outbreak has increased challenges for the government to reach its “about 5.5%” growth target this year. Apple supplier Foxconn is halting operations at its Shenzhen sites, one of which produces iPhones, in response to a government-imposed lockdown on the tech hub city.

  On Friday, credit data came in well below expectations, underscoring the growth drag from Covid and the housing slowdown. Long-term household borrowing – a proxy for mortgage loans – fell for the first time ever. The data led some economists, including those at Citigroup, to expect a cut in the medium-term lending facility rate on March 15. If delivered, it would sharpen the policy divergence with most other central banks, as the Fed is expected to raise rates this week.

  
   
  2. The risk of being delisted from American exchanges triggered a record slump among U.S.-traded Chinese stocks. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index lost 18% last week, surpassing the previous record slump during the financial crisis in 2008. The move came after the SEC identified five Chinese companies that could be kicked off the exchanges, if they fail to open their books to U.S. auditors as required by a new law. While considered a routine procedure to implement the law passed in December 2020, the move nonetheless rattled investors who have already been unnerved by rising geopolitical risks.

  

  So how does an investor hedge the risk? Morgan Stanley advised clients to go long those ADRs eligible for a Hong Kong listing and short those that are unqualified, and with high foreign ownership.

  3. Negative sentiment toward Chinese assets finally penetrated the strong yuan. The offshore yuan weakened 0.5% on Friday, the worst day in six weeks. The currency has weakened past its 50-day moving average and is on track toward the 100-DMA. Further spread of the virus – possibly leading to factory closures and port disruptions – could cloud China’s export outlook and add pressure to the yuan selloff.

  To be clear, any depreciation is likely to be limited. Friday’s credit data showed that foreign-currency deposits onshore surged to a record, suggesting that the domestic market is still awash with dollars.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 22:59

• New Technologies Can Help Achieve Biden's Ambitious Cancer Goal
  New Technologies Can Help Achieve Biden’s Ambitious Cancer Goal

  Authored by Amy Israel via RealClear Science (emphasis ours),

  President Biden has reinvigorated his cancer moonshot initiative with an ambitious goal of halving deaths in 25 years. Meeting that target will require substantial new commitments – not only from the U.S. government, but also from public and private partners around the world. With healthcare systems still reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic, smart deployment of new technologies in cancer care can help budgets go farther while closing access gaps and improving patient experiences.

  

  Hypofractionated radiation treatment (HRT) is a great example of how technology is transforming the fight against cancer. This method improves upon conventional treatment by concentrating larger doses of cancer-killing therapy in fewer sessions. Although HRT was first used more than a century ago, it wasn’t sustainable because of the damage caused to surrounding tissues. Thanks to tremendous advancements in radiation technology since then, especially in the last decade or so, HRT has become an accepted practical and cost-effective approach.

  Compared to conventional radiation treatment, HRT allows healthcare professionals to achieve the same result for patients with fewer treatment sessions using fewer resources, and at about half the cost. New and more efficient cancer innovations like HRT can create a “leapfrogging” effect with substantial gains for patients throughout the world. It is already helping to simplify and speed treatment in the U.S. and other high-income countries as well, generating substantial cost savings in infrastructure and human resources. If HRT were widely implemented in Africa, the potential savings over seven years would be $1.1 billion for breast cancer and $606 million for prostate cancer.

  Even with these kinds of technological advancements, the dwindling supply of trained pathologists poses a major challenge to achieving the Biden’s goal. This is a universal problem, and it’s only growing as aging populations increase the demand for cancer care. Even before the pandemic, countries such as Canada and the UK were sounding the alarm over the shortage of pathologists, warning that it was directly responsible for delays in cancer diagnoses.

  It is imperative that plans to invest in health care “future proofing” address the need for more pathologists and invest wisely in ways to augment pathology services. That means incorporating new imaging technologies backed by high-powered AI that can bridge the gap by reading pathology imaging, providing expert insights and helping eliminate errors even when pathologists are not available in some locations. And critically, pathologists need training on how to work with these technologies to optimize their use.

  Even in high-income countries, geographic accessibility to experts is a problem. According to the American Society of Clinical Oncology, 32 million Americans live in a county without a pathologist. Urban counties have 20 times more oncologists per square mile than rural counties. Virtual tumor boards are helping to solve this problem, bringing together multidisciplinary teams to help local physicians assess patient cases and develop treatment plans. Consultations can be made with physicians all over the world through secure online sharing of digital images and charts, and live video conferences. This approach to care has also been shown to reduce travel time for patients while potentially improving adherence. For physicians, it enables valuable networking across clinical centers with different types of expertise.

  President Biden’s moonshot is as ambitious as it is significant. To meaningfully improve the lives of cancer patients, we must harness the leapfrogging opportunities created by improving technology and scientific advancements. Robust, interoperable data sets that can feed and enhance machine learning are needed at the policy level. This starts with training and education across the health care sector to build the necessary skills in digital technology and data science. And we need to establish clear and consistent regulatory guidance for safeguarding patient privacy.

  Putting these policies into practice will enable leapfrogging in cancer care, just as it has for finance, technology and other industries. The cancer moonshot spotlights the need to reinvigorate the global fight against cancer. We can achieve its ambitious goal if we work together and efficiently use all available technologies and resources at hand.

  Amy Israel is Vice President and Global Head, Oncology Policy & Healthcare Systems at Novartis.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 22:25

• Meanwhile In China, All Hell Is Breaking Loose
  Meanwhile In China, All Hell Is Breaking Loose

  With war raging across the world’s bread basket, risk of World War 3 the highest it has been since the Cuban missile crisis, commodities hitting new all time highs every single day, inflation (even the watered down CPI version) set to hit 10% in a few months, and the Fed rushing to hike rates so high it slams the US into a pre-scripted recession (as it somehow hopes to make a “soft landing” even as fed funds futures signal a hard landing and at least 50 bps of rate cuts after the burst of hiking is over later this year), it is easy to forget that China is still around.

  So here is a vivid remind that not only has nothing been fixed in the country that single-handedly pulled the world out of depression during the GFC, but that things are going from bad to much worse.

  1.  China on brink of biggest Covid-19 crisis since Wuhan as cases surge

  China is scrambling to address its most severe Covid-19 outbreak in two years, reporting soaring cases in a fresh wave that has seen the country tweak its zero-Covid policy by allowing rapid antigen tests for public use. After topping 1,000 for two days in a row, new locally transmitted cases surged to more than 3,100, this time driven by a spike in symptomatic infections, the National Health Commission reported on Sunday. It came as 16 provinces reported new coronavirus infections, as did the four megacities of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing.

  As a result of the latest covid breakout, China’s government has shut down the city of Shenzhen, a city of 17.5 million people known as China’s Silicon Valley, and is restricting access to Shanghai by suspending bus services. All businesses except those that supply food, fuel and other necessities were ordered to close or work from home. That includes Foxconn, Apple’s Chinese slaves:

  • FOXCONN SUSPENDS OUTPUT AT CHINA HQ, IPHONE SITE IN SHENZHEN

  And since the port of Shenzhen – one of the world’s busiest container post is now also locked down, expect a fresh round of cascading chaos in Transpacific supply chains, just in time to join the snarled Transatlantic supply chains as the Ukraine war cripples all global seaborne traffic.

  

  2. Chinese stocks are crashing

  The Hang Seng tech index has plunged 61% from its peak last year. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index of U.S.-traded stocks has fared even worse, down 68%, and with another bad day or two, the peak-to-trough decline could surpass its 72% crash in the 2008 global financial crisis. Meanwhile, in the US, Chinese ADRs collapsed 10% in a single day on Friday, the worst selloff since 2008, after the SEC listed 5 Chinese companies at risk of delisting should they refuse to show their books to American auditors, stoking panic every ADR will eventually be booted out. “The market is very panicky,” Paul Pang at Pegasus Fund Managers Ltd., who has sold almost all his stake in Alibaba Group, told Bloomberg. “Sanctions against China are not impossible, if China refuses to take sides on the war in Ukraine. Tech shares are among those risky names exposed in the crossfires in the rising Sino-U.S. tensions.”

  Fear of a fresh regulatory crackdown by Beijing has escalated lately as policy makers proposed more curbs on online games. Earnings results so far have been unable to ease any worry about the growth outlook amid weakening consumer demand in China. The Hang Seng Tech Index is the one of the world’s worst-performing tech gauges since the war in Ukraine broke out and has dropped 17% in March, on course for its biggest monthly drop ever.

  

  “We can’t see any rebound signals at the present,” said Yan Kaiwen, analyst at China Fortune Securities. The market is concerned about inflation because of the higher prices for oil and other commodities, which will have a negative impact on the global economy, he said.

  3. Chinese bonds are crashing

  While nothing new to those who have been following the collapse in the Chinese junk bond market – closely linked to China’s property sector – China credit stress reached new extremes in the offshore, USD market, where average junk yields rose above 25% meaning the primary market won’t function properly anytime soon. Contagion has transformed stronger property developers into risky bets. Luxury property developer Shimao Group, which was once considered a bellwether for China’s safer builders, has been slashed deep into junk from investment grade in a matter of months. The firm has been cut to triple C territory by Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings. Logan Group has also been downgraded on undisclosed debt and governance worries. Cracks are also showing up in China’s government bond market. Yields on the 10-year sovereign note rose to 2.86%, the highest this year, as investors pointed to capital outflows.

  

  4. China’s property sector is (still) crashing

  China’s property industry has been rocked by at least 14 defaults by developers since authorities began cracking down on excessive borrowing and speculation in the housing market in 2020 which led to a historic default by China Evergrande. While policy makers are now signaling greater tolerance for selective relief by encouraging home buying in lower-tier cities, cutting mortgage rates and allowing more bank loans for developers, there are few signs this is helping boost sales. Unfortunately, these new measures have yet to bear fruit, as China’s biggest developers are seeing home sales crater this year amid a market that is effectively frozen.

  

  Home sales tumbled during the first two months of this year. China Vanke, the nation’s second-biggest developer by sales, saw a decline of 44%. At Country Garden Holdings Co., whose dollar bonds are at close to record lows, sales fell 24%. Even state-run China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. saw them slump 48%.

  While more adjustments are expected after the National People’s Congress taking place through this week, there are concerns of an “unstoppable downward spiral” according to Nomura International HK analysts. “We become increasingly worried whether the policy changes will be effective and timely enough to prevent property sales from a further correction” in the first half of this year, analysts Jizhou Dong and Stella Guo wrote in a note late February.

   5. China Credit Collapses

  February credit data was weaker thank expected after mortgage lending fell for the first time in 15 years. After a record January, China’s credit expansion slowed in February as a long holiday and the slumping housing market meant people and companies borrowed less. Banks lent 1.2 trillion yuan ($194 billion) in the month, down from 4 trillion yuan in January and less than in February last year. A key indicator of home mortgages declined for the first time in at least 15 years despite efforts by the central bank and other financial institutions to boost borrowing by cutting rates and lowering down payments.

  

  Newly increased medium and long-term loans to non-financial companies fell to 505 billion from 1.1 trillion yuan a year ago, indicating companies were also reluctant to borrow and invest.  The weak data came despite provinces selling special bonds, a key source of infrastructure funding, at a faster pace in February than in previous years.

  “It’s a pretty bad set of data,” said Zhou Hao, senior emerging markets economist at Commerzbank AG. “There’s a lack of growth driver, and the real economy’s demand is weak,” he said, arguing that “the PBOC will have to cut rates early if it wants to do so” as inflation and capital outflow pressures will start to limit its space later in the year, he said.

  6. Didi crashes

  Didi halts plans for a HK IPO. Chinese regulators aren’t yet satisfied with the security of its sensitive user data. The stock plunged 44% in US trading on Friday, its biggest one-day drop ever.

  

  7. ESG blues

  Norway’s $1.3 Trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s biggest, snubs Chinese sportswear stock Li Ning due to concerns over its ties to Xinjiang. Will other “green” funds follow in ditching their Chinese investments? “Norway sovereign fund’s offloading Li Ning is triggering some worries about the attitude over Chinese and Hong Kong stocks in the future,” said Castor Pang, head of research at Core Pacific Yamaichi. The news on Wednesday sent China’s CSI 300 Index tumbling for its sixth day of declines — the longest losing run since March 2020, and the Hang Seng Index finished at its lowest since July 2016 – and only a late day intervention by the National Team avoided an even worse rout. 

  The CSI 300 has lost 27% from a peak about a year ago, fueled by a slump in China’s property market and Covid-zero policy. Sentiment soured further on Wednesday as Norway’s $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund announced its exclusion of Li Ning Co. due to the risk that the sportswear maker contributes to serious human rights violations in Xinjiang. The move stoked worries about a potential retreat of other long-term investors. Li Ning plunged 9%.

  
   

  8. China Doubles Yuan Trading Band for Ruble

  The PBOC will double the yuan trading band for the ruble amid signs of distressed liquidity as banks back away from making markets. According to Bloomberg, the currency pair will be allowed to trade 10% around the fixing rate to meet demand for market development from March 11, the China Foreign Exchange Trade System said in a statement. That compares with a previous limit of 5%. The change shows how global financial institutions are attempting to cope with the ruble’s volatility, as Russia is increasingly cut off from markets after it invaded Ukraine. The yuan hit a record high against the ruble last week, with some Chinese banks suspending trading of the currency pair.

  The 10% limit compares with 5% for most of the onshore yuan’s foreign exchange pairs. The last time China widened the trading band for a foreign currency was in 2014, when it doubled the permitted range for dollar-yuan to 2%. “It is the policy measure in response to volatile RUB trading,” said Ken Cheung, Asia FX strategist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “The measure is to give market markers the ability to set the price and improve the RUB/CNY trading liquidity.”

  

  The volatility has led to waning interest to trade the currency pair, with the gap between the bid-ask price hitting a record 197 pips Wednesday. The gap narrowed to 106 pips after the latest announcement. The yuan bought 13.6 ruble on Feb. 25 in China’s onshore spot market. Total bilateral trade between the two countries was valued at $112 billion in 2020. Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin only last month signed a series of deals to boost Russian supply of gas, oil and wheat.

  9. Foreigners dump Chinese bonds in record amounts

  Foreign investors reduced their holdings of Chinese government bonds by the most ever last month. Overseas investors sold a net 35 billion yuan ($5.5 billion) of Chinese government bonds in February, marking the largest monthly cut on record and the first reduction since March 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Their holdings fell to 2.48 trillion yuan from a record 2.52 trillion in January.

  

  The bond liquidation spurred talk that some may have come from Russia as sanctions from the U.S. and European Union cut off the Russian central bank’s access to much of its $643 billion in foreign reserves. As of June, China’s yuan accounted for 13% of those reserves, according to the central bank data. Analysts at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group estimated that Russia’s central bank and sovereign wealth fund probably own a combined $140 billion of Chinese bonds.

  China’s narrowing yield premium over U.S. bonds, a result of diverging monetary policies, has also eroded the allure of the Chinese securities. At about 2.8%, yields on 10-year Chinese bonds are about 105 basis points higher than Treasuries, compared with a gap of more than 220 basis points at the end of 2020.

  10. GDP on verge of contraction

  In response to weaker consumption and an adverse impact on supply chains, as China doubles down on Covid-zero amid Omicron, Morgan Stanley has cut China’s Q1 GDP by 60bps, to zero growth QoQ, and cut full-year GDP by 20bps, to 5.1%. It will cut more.

  

  11. China to easing aggressively

  As a result of all this relentless pain, the China Securities Journal, a mouthpiece for the PBOC and the place where Beijing leaks trial balloons on what is to come, says PBOC may cut RRR and interest rates to stabilize growth. A loose monetary policy is currently required to support growth, the report said echoing what we have been predicting since mid-2021. China is still expected to cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio and interest rates further to stabilize economic growth despite looming U.S. Fed rate hike, China Securities Journal said in the the front-page report Monday, citing analysts. A further cut in RRR and interest rates may have already been placed on the agenda of China’s central bank.

  This begs the question: how long can US and China monetary policy diverge, with the former hiking and the latter cutting, before something terminally breaks. One thing is certain: for China to achieve its target of around 5.5% growth this year, with the property market slumping, coronavirus infections rapidly increasing, inflation still high and export demand threatened by the effects of the war in Europe, only a massive monetary stimulus will prevent China from falling into a catastrophic recession. It’s why Premier Li Keqiang told reporters Friday that achieving the growth goal won’t be easy. He also told them he is quitting this year; the two are linked…

  h/t Bloomberg’s Sofia Horta e Costa

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 22:07

• Children In China Diagnosed With Leukemia After Taking Chinese Vaccines
  Children In China Diagnosed With Leukemia After Taking Chinese Vaccines

  Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times,

  After receiving her first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, Li Jun’s 4-year-old developed a fever and coughs, which quickly subsided after intravenous therapy at the hospital. But after the second shot, the father could tell something was wrong.

  

  Swelling appeared around his daughter’s eyes and did not go away. For weeks, the girl complained about pains on her legs, where bruises started to emerge seemingly out of nowhere. In January, a few weeks after the second dose, the 4-year-old was diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

  “My baby was perfectly healthy before the vaccine dose,” Li (an alias), from China’s north-central Gansu Province, told The Epoch Times. “I took her for a health check. Everything was normal.”

  He is among hundreds of Chinese that belong to a social media group claiming to be suffering from or have a household member suffering from leukemia, developed after taking Chinese vaccines. Eight of them confirmed the situation when reached by The Epoch Times. Names of the interviewees have been withheld to protect their safety.

  The leukemia cases span across different age groups from all parts of China. But Li and others particularly pointed to a rise in patients from the younger age group in the last few months, coinciding with the regime’s push to inoculate children between 3 and 11 years old beginning last October.

  Li’s daughter had her first injection in mid-November under the request of her kindergarten. She is now undergoing chemotherapy at the Lanzhou No. 2 People’s Hospital where at least 20 children are being treated for similar symptoms, most of them between the age of 3 and 8, according to Li.

  “Our doctor from the hospital told us that since November, the children coming to their hematology division to treat leukemia have doubled the previous years’ number and they are having a shortage of beds,” he said.

  Li claimed that at least eight children from Suzhou district, where he lives, have died recently from leukemia.

  The hospital’s hematology division could not be immediately reached for comment.

  National Pressure

  Roughly 84.4 million children between the 3-11 age group have been vaccinated as of Nov. 13, according to latest figures from China’s National Health Commission, accounting for more than half of the population in that age bracket.

  There had been some resistance from Chinese parents when the campaign to vaccinate children first rolled out. They expressed concern about the lack of data about the effects of Chinese vaccines on young people. The vaccines are supplied by two Chinese drugmakers, Sinopharm and Sinovac, which carry an efficacy rate of 79 percent and 50.4 percent, respectively, based on available data from trials conducted on adults.

  There’s limited information about the health effects of these vaccines on children, and the World Health Organization said in late November that it has not approved the two vaccines for emergency use on the underaged.

  

  But parents who were reluctant to vaccinate their children have faced pressure to comply. Some said they lost work bonuses or were given a talk by their supervisors. In other cases, their children faced punishment varying from losing honors or even getting barred from attending school, as in the case of Wang Long’s 10-year-old son.

  “The school told us last year to take him for vaccination on such and such date, or he can’t go to class,” Wang, from eastern China’s Shandong Province, told The Epoch Times.

  The boy received his second dose on Dec. 4. A month later, he began experiencing fatigue and low fever. He is now at Shandong University Qilu Hospital, being treated for acute leukemia, diagnosed on Jan. 18.

  Censorship

  On WeChat, the all-in-one Chinese social media platform, Li has come to know over 500 patients or their family members sharing the same predicament.

  The local disease control center, when called by Li and others, had promised an investigation. But these probes invariably ended with the officials declaring the leukemia cases as “coincidental” and thus unrelated to the vaccines.

  The authorities said the same in 2013, following the deaths of over a dozen toddlers after Hepatitis B jabs.

  But Li and others in a similar situation are far from being convinced.

  “I dare say they didn’t do any verification but only went through the motions,” said Li.

  Li suspects that authorities are giving him the runaround. The officials told him a panel of experts would start an investigation within his province, but when he called the provincial level health agency, they disavowed any knowledge, saying reports of these cases had never reached them.

  Li and others seeking scrutiny of this issue also stand little chance to get their voices heard in the vast Chinese censorship machinery that constantly filters out anything deemed harmful to the communist regime’s interests.

  “The information gets blocked the instant we try to post something online. You can’t send it out,” said Li.

  When China’s two top political bodies met last week for its most important annual gathering in what Beijing called the “Two Sessions,” Li pitched in the WeChat group the idea of petitioning in the capital to get the authorities’ attention.

  That message drew the authorities’ notice immediately.

  “The police called us one by one,” said Li. “They said we have made things up and ordered us to withdraw from the chat group.”

  The group was soon disbanded. An information sheet containing details of over 200 leukemia patients, filled out by members of the group, is no longer accessible.

  According to Li, there are signs indicating that authorities are well aware of this issue. Doctors, when receiving patients presenting with similar symptoms, would first ask them if they had taken the vaccine, he said, citing information he learned from the WeChat group.

  “Got it, they would say, and that’s the end of it,” he said of the doctors’ questioning.

  Li got the same reaction when calling the hotline for Chinese state broadcaster CCTV in the hopes of getting media exposure.

  “As soon as we said the children had taken COVID-19 vaccine, they asked me if she had gotten leukemia. They knew,” said Li. “They said that they got too many calls because of this.”

  

  Desperation

  The cost for treatment is estimated at around 400,000 to 500,000 yuan ($63,093 to $78,867), more than 20 times the average annual income.

  Wang, whose 10-year-old was diagnosed with leukemia, is the sole breadwinner for his family and is already under strain making mortgage repayments. He received about only 1,000 yuan ($157) through the state social assistance program to help pay for his son’s treatment.

  “I stayed at the hospital until 4 a.m. the night before,” said Wang, adding that the crushing news has quite “broken” the boy’s mother.

  “Had he inherited it from the family, we’d accept it as our lot,” Wang said. “But he got sick because of the vaccine. I just can’t reconcile it.”

  Li, meanwhile, has been borrowing money from his relatives for the hospital fees. Some of the money trickles in in bills of 20 and 30 yuan, the equivalent of a few dollars, he said.

  Li has heard no response from officials or the media.

  His friend who works at the local health commission overseeing the distribution of vaccines has told him to not put much hope in the matter.

  “The officials knew that you could get leukemia, but the ‘arm is no match for the thigh,’” the friend told him, referring to a Chinese metaphor. “This is a national issue.”

  The Health Commission of Lanzhou City, the Health Commission of Gansu Province, the Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the Lanzhou Disease Prevention and Control Center, the Jiuquan City Disease Prevention and Control Center, Sinopharm, and Sinovac did not answer multiple calls for comment.

  The National Health Commission, Sinopharm, and Sinovac did not immediately respond to email queries from The Epoch Times.

  Gu Xiaohua contributed to this report.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 21:45

• Historic Market Dislocations In 35 Charts
  Historic Market Dislocations In 35 Charts

  Amid the unprecedented market turmoil, Deutsche Bank’s head of thematic research Jim Reid looks at some of the dislocations and extremes that the current Russia/Ukraine crisis has thrown up. In particular, Ried looks at commodities, rates and equities, as well as the dilemma that central banks find themselves in given high inflation and how loose policy is right now.

  Let’s start with energy dislocations

  The amount of backwardation in WTI futures contracts (1st contract versus 6th contract, left chart) is at an all-time high in dollar terms, showing how dislocated oil prices are over the near term. When looking from a ratio basis (on the right), the 1st contract is 20% more expensive than the 6th and not quite as extreme but still the highest for 20 years.

  

  European natural gas prices have also shot higher, and backwardation has taken hold. However both the EUR and ratio difference between the 1st and 6th TZT contract are not as drastic as oil and not as dramatic as in December, suggesting the market now believes ultra high price pressures are here to stay.

  

  Gas prices are extraordinary relative to anything seen in the past whereas oil is only at the upper end of historical range in real terms

  

  According to DB chief equity strategist, Binky Chadha, oil is way above fair value implied by dollar and global growth. Oil prices typically trade +/- 30% around fair value. The current premium is over 90%.

  

  There have been some extraordinary commodity moves in recent days/weeks. Nickel trading was suspended after 250% intra-day move over 2-days on margin calls, short squeeze and supply concerns

  

  Oil has been a big driver of inflation expectations over the last decade… Will this latest commodity shock start to impact long-run inflation expectations.

  

  Despite fears that a restriction of gas supplies will lead to greater coal usage, carbon prices have dropped as large open-interest in put options at €60-€80 has evaporated, a potential signal of profit taking. It’s created a big dislocation to the rest of the commodity complex

  

  Wheat saw the largest weekly increase on record w/e March 4th. Over three times largest previous week in 60 years

  

  However wheat spike hardly shows up in long-term real adjusted price… over time production techniques become more and more efficient which has driven the price down for such a renewable commodity.

  

  Next, we look at more marketwide VaR shocks:

  The week ending March 4th saw largest move higher in commodity index on record

  

  The US CPI number on Feb 10th saw a huge VAR shock at the front end of US treasury curve.

  

  … However three weeks later 10yr Bunds saw a huge VAR shock in the opposite direction… volatility in rates is immense

  

  US rates volatility has increased to its highest levels since the GFC. This is seen in the cost of buying options that expire in the next 3-months on 10- year USD swap rates.

  

  Similarly, the US MOVE Index (US implied vol of 1-month treasury options) is also at the highest since GFC outside of initial Covid shock.

  

  Ten-year bund breakevens have seen their biggest ever move and now at the highest since data started

  

  Egypt 5yr CDS has seen a huge spike to all time highs partly due to the commodity spike and worries about the impact on tourism

  

  Focusing on the European financial sector, we find that some European assets trading at previous break up risk levels:

  10yr Bund ASW traded at all time low on March 4th. Previous lows were either in deep recessions or at a time of Euro existential crises.

  

  German 10yr Real yields using breakevens at extremes… breakevens at ATH while bunds have been back in negative territory in recent days.

  

  European equity volatility only higher in 00-02 dotcom bust, GFC, Greek default, EU Sovereign crisis and Covid

  

  European banks seen one of the biggest 20-day declines on record… most of the move in line with bunds but in recent days the decoupling has grown as bund yields have climbed back up.

  

  With all these dislocations, Reid asks “is the equity market telling us that a recession is imminent?” Let’s see: the S&P 500 is pricing a big fall in ISM to mid-40s (i.e. recession) whether you use tech dominated index or the equal-weight one.

  

  This takes us to some valuations observations: are EU,EM and US small cap equities very cheap vs S&P 500? According to Reid, European equities very cheap to US now… with or without mega-cap growth and tech

  

  EM equities also very cheap to the US now

  

  In US small caps are back close to the Covid extremes versus S&P 500

  

  Which brings us to the central bank dilemma: Current Fed policy is the loosest ever outside of the WWII period… and policy looks extraordinarily extreme

  

  The Covid M2 spike has taken us well beyond pre-covid trend. Note again that GFC period saw no such spike…. Back then banks, consumers were aggressively de-levering and governments soon moved to austerity… very different this time with helicopter money and no delevering.

  

  Are Fed policy moves still mispriced? The war might mean huge swings in expectations or risks of policy errors in both directions

  

  Unfortunately the Fed is about to start a tightening cycle with the 2s10s at close to the flattest its ever been at this point… doesn’t bode well for the duration of the cycle… however not embarking on a hiking cycle could be worse longer term in terms of embedding inflation in the economy…

  

  3y1y – 1y1y OIS rates are at their lowest in a decade. That is, markets are pricing the Fed funds rate to be 36bps higher from 2023-2024 than 2025- 2026. Markets are expecting the Fed to have to quickly cut rates shortly after the hiking cycle begins, which looks like a hard landing.

  

  US inflation is already broad based

  

  The Fed also has to deal with the highest house price growth on record outside of two post WWII years

  

  Which brings us to what may be our favorite chart: as DB’s Jim Reid notes, every Fed hiking cycle in the fiat high debt era has led to some kind of financial crisis somewhere across the world

  

  Confirming that the Fed is hiking to purposefully spark a recession – if not depression – in order to destroy enough commodities demand, consumer sentiment gap between present and expected conditions at extremes and suggesting a recession is imminent…

  

  The ECB has almost always been pro-cyclical in terms of energy prices… can they justify easing on lower energy prices in 2014 and not tightening due to higher energy in 2022.

  

  Finally, DB notes that typically flights to liquidity force issuers to pay higher rates for unsecured funding, at both term and overnight tenors. But this time, the cost of 3m funding has spiked while overnight funding rates have been flat, suggesting there are dislocations in filtering the glut of USD in the system to borrowers.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 21:15

• 2.8 Million Fowl (Mostly Chickens & Turkeys) Have Died In The First Month Of America's Raging New Bird Flu Pandemic
  2.8 Million Fowl (Mostly Chickens & Turkeys) Have Died In The First Month Of America’s Raging New Bird Flu Pandemic

  Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

  On top of everything else, now a highly pathogenic avian influenza pandemic is ripping across the United States, and it has already resulted in the deaths of almost 2.8 million birds.  Most of the birds that have died have been chickens or turkeys.  And since this was just in the very first month of the pandemic, there is no telling how bad it could eventually become.  What will the eventual death toll look like?  Will it be in the tens of millions?  That is definitely a possibility.  And what would happen if the bird flu mutates into a version that spreads easily among humans?  We might want to start thinking about that, because that is possible too.

  

  I knew that the bird flu outbreak was bad, but I didn’t know that it had gotten this bad.  The following comes from a prominent farming website…

  With new outbreaks in Iowa and Missouri, nearly 2.8 million birds — almost entirely chickens and turkeys — have died in one month due to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), the Agriculture Department said on Monday. The viral disease has been identified in 23 poultry farms and backyard flocks in a dozen states since February 8, when the first report of “high path” bird flu in a domestic flock was reported.

  2.8 million dead birds in just one month.

  Will next month be even worse?

  And the number of states that have detected bird flu has actually gone up since that article came out.  Nebraska just became the 13th state to detect a positive case of HPAI.

  To me, one of the most alarming things is that this flu just keeps hitting more commercial flocks.  On Monday, officials announced that a commercial flock of turkeys in northwest Iowa had been affected…

  Officials announced Monday that they have identified bird flu in a commercial flock of 50,000 turkeys in northwest Iowa, the state’s second case of a virus that has been identified in multiple U.S. states.

  Iowa agriculture officials and the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed the case in Buena Vista County, about 100 miles (160 kilometers) north of the case identified March 1 in a backyard flock of 42 ducks and chickens in Pottawattamie County.

  When one bird in a flock tests positive, all of the birds have to be put down.

  That is how authorities try to contain the disease.

  But it just keeps popping up in widely diverse places.  Just check out what has taken place within the past few days…

  In the past few days officials have identified the virus on a southeast Missouri farm with 240,000 broiler chickens, a commercial mixed species flock in southeastern South Dakota and an egg-laying hen operation in northeast Maryland.

  This is truly a nightmare.

  And we just learned that the H5N1 strain has been detected at yet another poultry farm in Delaware…

  Another Delaware poultry farm has identified the highly pathogenic avian influenza strain among their population, according to Delaware Department of Agriculture officials.

  According to officials, a pullet operation in New Castle County identified the H5N1 strain following federal laboratory testing.

  All of the chickens at that facility were rapidly “depopulated”, and officials are assuring us that no infected birds will enter the food system…

  It is the first time since 2004 that avian influenza was identified in an area broiler farm, officials with the Delmarva Chicken Association (DCA) said Wednesday. All affected premises have been quarantines, and birds are being or have been depopulated to prevent spread. Birds from affected flocks will not be distributed to the food system, officials said.

  At this point, this pandemic is not just limited to one geographic area.

  There have been lots of cases on the east coast, and there have been cases as far west as Nebraska and South Dakota.

  Basically, the area that has been affected already covers about half the nation, and we are just one month into this new plague.

  Let us hope that it stays just in birds, because if it jumps to humans we are going to have a real disaster on our hands.

  Since 1997, bird flu has had about a 50 percent death rate in humans…

  From 1997 to now, more than 880 people worldwide were infected, with approximately a 50% case fatality proportion. That includes 20 cases and seven deaths in Hong Kong between 1997 and 2003.

  The good news is that the strains that are circulating around the globe right now do not spread easily to humans.

  But just like COVID, bird flu is mutating all the time.

  And scientists have warned us that it could eventually mutate into a strain that does spread easily among humans.

  Late last year, two people in China died after catching a strain of the bird flu known as H5N6…

  China has reported to more H5N6 avian flu infections in humans, both fatal in people who were sick in November and died in early December, Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Protection (CHP) said in a statement today.

  The patients are a 12-year-old girl and a 79-year-old man, both from the city of Liuzhou in Guangxi province. They had both been at a live-poultry market before they got sick and started experiencing symptoms 1 day apart from each other, suggesting that they might be family members. The girl and the man died 1 day apart, the man on Dec 3 and the girl on Dec 4.

  Personally, I have always been more concerned about H5N1, but the truth is that if any strain were to begin spreading like wildfire among humans the death toll would be catastrophic.

  But even if this bird flu pandemic stays only in birds, we are going to lose millions upon millions of chickens and turkeys at a time when food prices have already been soaring into the stratosphere.

  The global food crisis that we have been warned about is already here, and so this new plague has come at a really, really bad time.

  We continue to be hit by one thing after another, and it seems like each new day brings even more bad news.

  If you enjoy eating chicken or turkey, I would stock up now, because prices are only going to go higher from here.

  *  *  *

  It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 20:45

• Minnesota Non-Profit Set Up To Feed Children Accused Of Massive Fraud And Misappropriating "Tens Of Millions Of Dollars"
  Minnesota Non-Profit Set Up To Feed Children Accused Of Massive Fraud And Misappropriating “Tens Of Millions Of Dollars”

  A non-profit organization called “Feeding our Future (FOF)” was stopped in its tracks this week by the FBI after using millions of federal dollars meant for child nutrition to instead buy “numerous vehicles” and 14 properties, according to the Bureau. 

  FBI Special Agent Travis Wilmer wrote in an affidavit this week: “The companies and their owners received tens of millions of dollars in federal funds for use in providing nutritious meals to underprivileged children and adults. Almost none of this money was used to feed children. Instead, the participants in the scheme misappropriated the money and used it to purchase real estate, cars and other luxury items.”

  FOF received $307,000 in federal funds in 2018, according to a report by Just The News.

  The organization’s website says: “We are driven by a single goal; making participation in the USDA Child and Adult Care Food Program safe and easy for our community partners. We ensure programs are easily able to receive funding to purchase nutritious meals and snacks.”

  It reported $42.7 million and $197 million in “meals disbursed” in 2020 and 2021, respectively. 

  The FOF was caught after the Minnesota Department of Education noticed reporting deficiencies and a “drastic increase of meals” that the organization couldn’t explain. The MDE then reported them to the USDA Office of the Inspector General in October 2020.

  

  But then FOF sued the MDE for not processing more than 50 applications for payments – and won. 

  In mid 2021, authorities were already investigating the FOF. Despite searches of “a dozen” properties linked to the investigation in 2022, no arrests were made. 

  The investigation reportedly ensnared Abdi Nur Salah, former senior policy aid at the office of Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, who co-purchased a south Minneapolis apartment building with money “traceable to the fraud and money laundering scheme”, according to the report. 

  There were 14 properties tied to the alleged fraud, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office. 

  The FBI said in January 2022: “To date, the conspirators have stolen millions of dollars in federal funds. The scheme is ongoing.”

  The Sahan Journal also reported that people tied to FOF donated to Congresswoman Ilhan Omar’s office:

  Congresswoman Ilhan Omar’s office says her campaign has donated to local food shelves the thousands of dollars in contributions it received from men alleged in FBI search warrants to have committed fraud against a federal program to feed children. 

  In early 2021, two men named in recently unsealed search warrant affidavits donated a total of $5,400 to Omar’s campaign. The FBI affidavits list Ahmed Ghedi and Abdihakim Ahmed as associates of Safari Restaurant and Event Center. Both allegedly controlled shell companies that received $1.1 million in federal child nutrition money from a co-owner of Safari Restaurant. The two men separately helped two others buy a $2.8 million mansion in Minneapolis with child nutrition money to use as an office building, the FBI alleges. 

  Ahmed donated $2,700 to Omar’s campaign on February 23 and Abdihakim gave the same amount to her on March 31. Federal prosecutors have not charged Ahmed or Abdihakim, nor anybody else named in the search warrants, with any crimes. 

  Sen. Roger Chamberlain, concluded: “It’s simply outrageous that nearly $200 million of money provided to feed children in need was abused in this way. With resources precious, it’s imperative government agencies ensure every dollar is going to programs with robust track records so we can know not a single dime is wasted.”

  FOF Director Aimee Bock has denied any wrongdoing.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 20:15

• Bitcoin Slides Ahead Of EU Vote Which Could "Practically" Ban Key Digital Currencies
  Bitcoin Slides Ahead Of EU Vote Which Could “Practically” Ban Key Digital Currencies

  Cryptocurrencies stumbled on Sunday evening after trading rangebound for the past two days, following a delayed market realization, and reaction, that on Monday, the European parliamentary committee will vote on a new regulatory framework for crypto assets, which according to Bloomberg could accelerate passage of a measure that industry executives say could “practically ban key digital currencies including Bitcoin and Ethereum in Europe.”

  Crypto-assets issued and/or traded in the EU “shall be subject to minimum environmental sustainability standards and set up and maintain a phased rollout plan to ensure compliance” with those requirements, according to the final draft for the Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) law, the EU’s sweeping legislative package for governing digital assets, that was seen by Bloomberg News. The Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will vote on the bill on Monday, and in an unexpected twist, the draft law contains a late addition that looks to limit the use of cryptocurrencies powered by an energy-intensive computing process known as proof-of-work.

  Commenting ahead of the vote, Jake Chervinsky, head of policy the Blockchain Association said that “the MiCA situation is worse for crypto than anything in the USA. Tomorrow, the European Parliament votes on “environmental sustainability standards” that look like a pretext for a Bitcoin ban.”

  The MiCA situation is worse for crypto than anything in the USA. Tomorrow, the European Parliament votes on “environmental sustainability standards” that look like a pretext for a Bitcoin ban.

  If it passes, it can be undone in the next phase of the EU process, but it’s very bad. https://t.co/AW1ATE0tqU

  — Jake Chervinsky (@jchervinsky) March 13, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As Bloomberg points out, the reference to minimum sustainability as well as rollout requirements, appear to be last-minute changes introduced to curb, or ban, the use of digital currencies working on a so-called “proof-of-work” consensus mechanism, for instance Bitcoin and Ethereum (at least until the rollout of Ethereum 2.0 which is proof of stake). An earlier draft didn’t mention a proof-of-work protocol concept, EU parlamentarian and crypto-expert Stefan Berger of Germany’s Christian Democratic Party said in a Tweet early last week.

  CoinDesk reported yesterday that the provision in question requires all crypto assets to be subject to the EU’s “minimum environmental sustainability standards with respect to their consensus mechanism used for validating transactions, before being issued, offered or admitted to trading in the Union.”

  For cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ether, that are already being traded in the EU, the rule proposes a phase-out plan to shift their consensus mechanism from proof-of-work to other methods that use less energy, like proof-of-stake. Although there are plans to move ethereum to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism, i.e., Ethereum 2.0, such an option is not available for bitcoin.

  Proof of work is one of the main consensus mechanism governing the Bitcoin blockchain. Energy-intensive Bitcoin miners contribute computer power to the network, which secures and processes the blockchain, and are rewarded in Bitcoin for their contribution.

  A previous version of the law proposed the prohibition of proof-of-work crypto in the EU starting in January 2025. The provision was later dropped following criticism from crypto advocates, before the modified version made it back into the latest draft.

  Stefan Berger, the EU parliamentarian charged with overseeing the content and progress of the MiCA framework, has been trying to reach a compromise over restricting proof-of-work.  Berger also said at the time that he does not feel MiCA is the place for settling technological or energy-related rules because the framework’s goal is to regulate crypto as assets. Once parliament decides on the draft, it will move on to a trilogue, which is a formal round of negotiations between the European commission, council and parliament.

  “The Greens and Socialists, as you can imagine, are criticizing the proof-of-work concept and criticizing the energy use, saying that bitcoin needs more energy than the Netherlands,” Berger said in an interview with CoinDesk in February, referring to the political parties pushing the energy argument.

  Furious over whether the new, tougher draft law would be a de-facto ban of Bitcoin, industry executives took their concerns to Twitter on Saturday.

  “We at Ledger will always defend freedom and self-custody, particularly in our backyard. We are calling on you all to contact your Member of European Parliament and let them know that you oppose a Bitcoin ban in Europe,” Chief Executive Pascal Gaulthier of Ledger, one of the world’s largest crypto wallet providers said on his Twitter account.

  We at Ledger will always defend freedom and self-custody, particularly in our backyard.
  We are calling on you all to contact your Member of European Parliament and let them know that you oppose a Bitcoin ban in Europe: https://t.co/KXsEfi468i https://t.co/yZlaRZ97Aa

  — Pascal Gauthier (@_pgauthier) March 12, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Microstrategy CEO Michael Saylor chimed in that “the only settled method to create digital property is via Proof-of-Work. Non-energy based crypto approaches like Proof-of-Stake must be deemed to be securities until proven otherwise. Banning digital property would be a trillion dollar mistake.”

  The only settled method to create digital property is via Proof-of-Work. Non-energy based crypto approaches like Proof-of-Stake must be deemed to be securities until proven otherwise. Banning digital property would be a trillion dollar mistake.https://t.co/h8FTGaGJKi

  — Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) March 12, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “Since there is no way #bitcoin can & will implement a rollout plan out of POW, it would affect #BTC as well,” said Patrick Hansen, head of strategy for crypto wallet firm Unstoppable Finance, on Twitter.

  “Extremely high stakes vote in the EU. That such a proposal made it this far is extraordinarily concerning and unlikely to stand up to practical reality,” said Jeremy Allaire, founder of Circle Pay, on Twitter.

  The good news for crypto bulls is that according to CoinDesk, which cites people familiar with the matter that although the vote remains a close call, a small majority of committee members may vote against the measure. If so, the selloff on Sunday night is merely the latest successful attempt at shaking out the weak holders.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 19:52

• What Joe Biden's Executive Order On Digital Assets Really Means
  What Joe Biden’s Executive Order On Digital Assets Really Means

  One River Asset Management’s Head of Research, Marcel Kasumovich, wrote about the improtant of Biden’s Executive Order on the future of digital asset infrastructure and innovation. His note is reproduced below.

  This week, your inbox is likely overflowing with two observations – President Biden’s Executive Order on digital assets and the positive price response to what was supposed to be old news. It was as though digital assets exhaled a sigh of relief with the release of the Order. And it went further than expected. The Order is the first-ever ‘whole-of-government approach,’ with broad goals of supporting digital asset innovation, guarding consumer protections, ensuring financial stability, and playing a leading role in international finance. It resets the tone around digital assets – agencies will work together to integrate new technologies into the mainstream. We see four key points of emphasis.

  First, the US wants to be the global leader in digital asset innovation. This is similar to the embrace of the internet in the 1990s, where US technologies eventually proliferated throughout the global economy. Yes, it happened more slowly than technologists would have liked back then too. Congress first started working with an electronic mail system in 1993, and internet laws only began in 1996 (here). For those working on the technology, the years of wait surely felt like a lifetime. Yet, arguments of bad operators dominating the internet seem like a lifetime ago. Digital assets are at a similar policy inflection point to the 1990s internet.

  Like the internet back then, policy is now focused on the benefits of new technologies with a watchful eye on risks. Access to affordable financial services featured prominently in the Executive Order. It is important not to minimize the scale of the opportunity. Think global. Billions of people around the world are unbanked or underbanked. India is an extreme example. Two-thirds of India’s population is rural and only 31% have internet access (here). That’s 649 million people who will be brought on-line. That’s 649 million people whose first formal banking experience will almost surely be digital. The reach of US technology leadership, as with the internet, is global. It can unlock a revolution in digital banking.

  Second, digital currencies are being driven by US national interests. The potential for a US central bank digital currency (CBDC) is deemed urgent by the Order. However, the focus is a bit more subtle, attentive to assessing “the technology infrastructure and capacity needs for a potential US CBDC,” (emphasis added). Our judgment here is simple – US national interests are tied to both the infrastructure used to operate digital assets and the US dollar as a reserve currency in the global financial system

  What does this mean in practical terms? Well, the Order sounds the starting gun of an infrastructure footrace. The Federal Reserve entered the 24x7x365 settlement competition in 2019 when it started the development of FedNow (here). But the digital asset ecosystem has a huge lead that it is unlikely to relinquish. For one, protocols such as Ethereum are inherently interoperable around the world, unlike FedNow. Further, decentralized protocols are attracting development talent with a record 4,000+ Ethereum developers in December 2021 (here). Finally, the US dollar is already in a digital leadership position with two of the top five digital assets by market capitalization being US dollar stablecoin. The digital infrastructure “rails” are built, Ethereum and Bitcoin are in a leadership position, and policy will embrace them (eventually).

  Third, the focus on strategic financial stability is telling of the desire to integrate digital into the mainstream. The Financial Stability Oversight Council, the highest body on stability matters, is charged with the task of mitigating systemic risk. This will be critically important in the context of the banking system. Instantaneous and final settlement is foreign to current financial intermediation that is built to accommodate error. “Fat finger” trades are final in digital. Consequently, native digital asset operators have designed technology systems that focus on pre-trade risk management. And those accustomed to operating in the digital arena have internalized the importance of precision.

  Of course, the underlying technologies demonstrate remarkable resilience. Bitcoin has been functional 99.99% of the time since January 3, 2009, with 3,285 consecutive days of operating without interruption. Newer decentralized financial protocol, using assets like bitcoin and ether as collateral have guarded against financial stability risks via overcollateralization and ruthless mathematical formulas, and thereby ensuring any investor taking leverage solely bears the risk. This will require a huge shift in the mindset of traditional markets, where investors connect negative price performance to systemic risk. The digital financial system will greatly enhance stability and resiliency of the ecosystem.

  Finally, the devil is always in the details – we are now closer to a single digital regulator. Even if there were not a single regulator formally recognized, the whole-government approach makes it clear that regulatory entities will be cooperative in their approach. The Order provides political cover for entities to reframe and rethink their positions. Again, it is useful to put this in the historical context of the internet. The first “internet law” passed was the Telecommunications Act in 1996 (here). It was the first major change in telecommunications law since 1962. We are at a similar stage with digital assets. The Automated Clearing House (ACH) was the last major innovation in payments in the 1970s (here). It’s time for digital.

  Make no mistake, the regulatory environment will change with the legal structure of trading activity in the digital era. Great efforts are being made to provide lawmakers with clear frameworks on these issues. Testimony from Alesia Haas to the US House Committee on Financial Services is notable (here). Figure 1 illustrates the current, cumbersome legal web involved in a trading transaction that requires the current layers of regulation.

  

  Figure 2 shows the future of finance – minimalist by comparison with only five simple nodes. The regulatory boxes required in Figure 1 are just not applicable to Figure 2; the efficiency gains of embracing digital will be tremendous.

  

  The Order puts to rest the debate about whether and where digital will fit into the future of finance. Digital technologies are set to play a leading role. The mandate is unequivocal. It is not to say that everyone and everything in digital will win. To the contrary, the message is more about embracing the technologies for the strategic betterment of America than accepting the current state of play in areas like decentralized finance. Digital asset technologies are transformative in how we transfer value. It has the potential to level the playing field in all markets as the lines between traditional and native-digital assets become blurred alongside a broadening of tokenization. We welcome the strategic initiatives.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 19:45

• City Of Fresno Duped Out Of $400,000 In African Email Scam
  City Of Fresno Duped Out Of $400,000 In African Email Scam

  Today in “government allocating your taxpayer dollars” news…

  The city of Fresno, Calif. has reportedly fallen victim to an email phishing scam, costing the city (and its taxpayers) a whopping $400,000.

  The scam was based in Africa and took place in 2020. The city is accused of not telling the city council or the public, according to a new article from the Fresno Bee. 

  “Former Mayor Lee Brand’s administration failed to disclose the loss,” the report says. Additionally, the Fresno City Attorney’s Office rejected a public records request by The Bee regarding the fraud in December 2021.

  

  The city told The Bee that “no records were located”, but the news outlet was still able to obtain emails that existed prior to the request.

  The report says that the fraud was disguised as “as an invoice from a subcontractor working on the construction of the new southeast Fresno police station”. 

  Placed on legitimate looking letterhead, only the account numbers on the invoice had been changed. Money was then transferred electronically by a city staffer to the fraudulent account.

  Email scams have evolved in recent years to include vendor email compromise (VEC) scams, the report says. 

  As was the case in Frenso, the Bee reported that “in a typical vendor email attack, scammers create fake invoices that look exactly like a real vendor’s, but they change the bank account information so that when a payment is issued, the money ends up in the scammer’s account.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 19:15

• Morgan Stanley Lists Three Ways The World Will Respond As Sanctions Threaten The Dollar's Dominance
  Morgan Stanley Lists Three Ways The World Will Respond As Sanctions Threaten The Dollar’s Dominance

  Last week, former NY Fed staffer Zoltan Pozsar sparked a shockwave across Wall Street when in his latest research piece, he suggested that as a result of the Ukraine war, which has resulted in a “commodity collateral” crisis (and which is quickly transforming into an old-school liquidity crisis), China’s PBOC will soon emerge as a dominant central bank and as the commodity-backed yuan ascends to a position of power, the world’s reserve currency, the dollar, would lose much of its global clout leading to even higher inflation across the western world:

  This crisis is not like anything we have seen since President Nixon took the U.S. dollar off gold in 1971 – the end of the era of commodity-based money. When this crisis (and war) is over, the U.S. dollar should be much weaker and, on the flipside, the renminbi much stronger, backed by a basket of commodities. From the Bretton Woods era backed by gold bullion, to Bretton Woods II backed by inside money (Treasuries with un-hedgeable confiscation risks), to Bretton Woods III backed by outside money (gold bullion and other commodities). After this war is over, “money” will never be the same again… and Bitcoin (if it still exists then) will probably benefit from all this.

  Of course, not everyone agreed with this radical view, with Rabobank’s in-house geostrategist Michael Every among the most vocal critics of Pozsar’s take. Over the weekend, another skeptic emerged, this time the global head of FX EM at Morgan Stanley, James Lord who in the bank’s Sunday Start (available to pro subs) note asks “Have Sanctions Undermined the Dollar’s Dominance?” and answers: no… but only for now, and warns that over the long run it is likely that Pozsar’s dour view will be validated, as the act of sanctioning Russia and expelling it from the western financial system “likely calls into question the idea of a risk-free asset that underpins central bank FX reserves in general, and not just specifically for the dollar and US government-backed securities.”

  Assuming that there is a risk that all foreign authorities could potentially freeze the sovereign assets of another country – as has now happened – what are the implications? Lord sees at least three: i) Identifying the safest asset; ii) political alliances will be critical (“To put the dollar’s dominance in the international financial system at serious risk, would-be challengers of the system would need to build strategic alliances with other large economies”), and iii) Onshoring foreign exchange assets (Pozsar’s “outside money”).

  The Morgan Stanley strategist also notes that one way of doing this “is to buy physical gold and store it safely within the home jurisdiction.”

  The same could be said of other FX assets, as reserve managers will certainly have access to printed USD, EUR or CNY banknotes if they are stored in vaults at home, though there could be practical challenges in making large transactions in that scenario.

  The other key beneficiary of Russia’s shocking financial expulsion – as Zoltan correctly noted – is the yuan, as Lord explains:

  … there will be reserve diversification, and we continue to believe that the share of the Chinese yuan in global FX reserves could reach 5-10% by 2030 at the expense of other reserve currencies. If some states are exploring alternative payment systems to SWIFT or looking to pursue greater bilateral trade in domestic currencies, the economic sanctions levied against Russia could act as an accelerant.

  Yet while the countdown to the dollar’s demise may have been indeed started, Morgan Stanley does not see anything actionable for a long time as “recent actions don’t undermine the dollar as the safest global reserve asset, and it is likely to remain the dominant global currency for the foreseeable future.”

  Read his full note below.

   

  Ever since the US and its allies announced their intention to freeze the Central Bank of Russia’s foreign currency (FX) reserves, market practitioners have been quick to argue that this would likely accelerate a shift away from a US dollar-based international financial system. It is easy to understand why: Other central banks may now worry that their FX reserves are not as safe as they once thought and start to diversify away from the dollar.

  Yet, despite frequent calls for the end of the dollar-based international financial system over the last couple of decades, the dollar remains overwhelmingly the world’s dominant reserve currency and pre-eminent safe-haven asset, with its advantage over others only slipping moderately over the last 20 years. Could the step of sanctioning the FX reserves of a central bank the size of Russia’s be a tipping point?

  The willingness of the US authorities to freeze the supposedly liquid, safe and accessible deposits and securities of a foreign state certainly raises many questions for reserve managers, sovereign wealth funds and perhaps even some private investors. One is likely to be: Could my FX assets be frozen too?

  We also need to remember that the US is not acting alone. Europe, Canada, the UK and Japan have joined in freezing the CBR’s reserve assets. So, an equally valid question is: Could any foreign authority potentially freeze my assets?

  If the answer is ‘yes’, that likely calls into question the idea of a risk-free asset that underpins central bank FX reserves in general, and not just specifically for the dollar and US government-backed securities.

  If there is a risk that all foreign authorities could potentially freeze the sovereign assets of another country, what are the implications? We see at least three.

  • Identifying the safest asset: Reserve managers and sovereign wealth fund investors will need to take a view on where they can find the safest assets and not just safe assets, as the concept of the latter may have been seriously impaired. But the dollar and US government-backed securities may still be the safest assets, since the latest sanctions against the CBR involve a broad range of government authorities acting in concert.
  • Political alliances could be key: These sanctions demonstrate that international relations between different states can play an important role in the safety of reserve assets. While the dollar might be a safe asset for strong allies of the US, its adversaries could see things differently. To put the dollar’s dominance in the international financial system at serious risk, would-be challengers of the system would need to build strategic alliances with other large economies.
  • Onshoring foreign exchange assets: Recent sanctions have crystallized the fact that there is a big difference between an FX deposit in a foreign bank account under the jurisdiction of a foreign government and an FX deposit that you physically own on your home ground. While both might be considered ‘cash’, they are not equivalent in accessibility or safety. So, another upshot might be that reserve managers bring foreign exchange assets onshore.

  One way of doing this is to buy physical gold and store it safely within the home jurisdiction. The same could be said of other FX assets, as reserve managers will certainly have access to printed USD, EUR or CNY banknotes if they are stored in vaults at home, though there could be practical challenges in making large transactions in that scenario.

  Reserve diversification still likely: Our long-standing view has been that there will be reserve diversification, and we continue to believe that the share of the Chinese yuan in global FX reserves could reach 5-10% by 2030 at the expense of other reserve currencies.

  To the extent that SWIFT and reserve asset sanctions levied by other authorities around the world encourage some states to explore alternative payment systems such as China’s CIPS or pursue greater bilateral trade in domestic currencies, recent events are likely to act as an accelerator of a shift to a ‘multipolar world.’

  But it is not clear that recent actions have undermined the idea of USD as the safest global reserve asset and it may well remain the dominant global currency for some time to come, albeit at slightly lower levels than before.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 18:45

• Solar Storm To Strike Earth Sunday As Northern Lights To Dazzle Night Sky 
  Solar Storm To Strike Earth Sunday As Northern Lights To Dazzle Night Sky 

  A large solar flare triggered a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that is expected to hit the Earth’s magnetic field Sunday evening and into the early morning hours of Monday. 

  NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) issued a “G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm watch” after a CME ejected from the Sun towards Earth on early Friday. The space weather event could produce geomagnetic storms impacting the 55th parallel north region. Countries affected include parts of Germany, Denmark, Russia, Lithuania, Belarus, Kazakhstan, the US (Alaska), Canada, Ireland, and the UK. 

  

  Areas on the 55th parallel north may experience communication disruptions, power grid fluctuations, and, of course, auroras could light up the night sky. Auroras could be visible as low as the US’s Upper Midwest and Northeast. 

  

  Space weather observer SolarHam first detected the “moderate solar flare measuring M2.2” on Friday “around AR 2964 in the southwest quadrant” of the Sun. They said this is “the 9th strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 in terms of peak X-Ray flux.” 

  

  Beyond today’s geomagnetic storm threat, Sunspot Cycle 25 has already begun and is expected to be an active one could be terrible news for the digital economy as disruptions sparked by solar flares create economic damage.

  Last month, Elon Musk’s satellite internet service Starlink lost 40 satellites after a geomagnetic storm knocked them out of orbit. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 18:15

• Grains Cheatsheet, Part 2: Don't Follow The 'Record Crop' Trap
  Grains Cheatsheet, Part 2: Don’t Follow The ‘Record Crop’ Trap

  Part 2 out of 3 in a weekly miniseries, by Macro Ops Substack,

  Part 1 can be found here.

  A Thing On Volatility

  Grains volatility goes up when prices are high, and volatility goes down when prices are low. It’s the opposite behavior to stocks. When grain prices go up it doesn’t mean good things for the economy. There are production concerns. The market thinks that the harvest won’t be enough to fit everybody´s needs. Prices rise and volatility climbs until the uncertainty is resolved.

  The Carry-Over Explained

  The carry-over is the remaining supply from the previous year plus current year production, plus imports, minus demand. 

  Previous Year Supply + Current Year Production + Imports – Demand = Carry-Over

  The carry-over is the link between futures prices and different crop years.

  What Is The Stocks-To- Use Ratio?

  Stocks to Use Ratio is a really important indicator for the grains market. It measures how much grain is left as carry-over relative to its use (demand).

  If last year’s production of Soybeans was 100 tons, and the demand was 90 tons, that means that the carry-over from the year was 10 tons. The stock to use ratio would be: 10/90 or 11.11%. So in the case of a bad crop the next year, there will be still 11% of the total demand already accounted for. 

  Following this example, if the next year’s production rises to 110 tons and demand stays the same (90 tons), we will have a 20 ton surplus. The carry-over will be the 10 tons that we had on stock plus the new surplus.

  Our new stock to use ratio will look like this 30/90 or 33.33%. There are more than enough Soybeans to go around for everybody who wants them. 

  Now let’s say in the third year it´s a completely different story. China´s GDP keeps growing, more people join the middle class and have bigger incomes so they start eating more meat. China’s meat producers need grain feed for their cows, so the demand for Soybeans rises to 100 tons.

  At the same time, El Niño decides is a good time to play with the American Farmers… this year crop production falls to 75 tons due to poor weather conditions.

  So in year 3 we have a shortage of 25 tons. To meet the shortfall the savings from year 1 and 2 are consumed. The total carry now drops to 5 tons (30 in savings minus the 25 shortage). 

  Now the stock to use ratio looks like this… 5/100 or 5.00%. The ratio captures the relationship between 3 variables: Supply, Demand, and Inventories.

  Supply could be growing, but if Demand is also growing at the same rate they should offset each other. The stock to use ratio should stay the same.

  If Demand grows faster or there’s a production issue, the ratio will fall. (Less stock per unit of demand).

  If Demands falls or supply grows faster, the ratio will increase. (More stock per unit of demand).

  Stocks-To-Use Ratio And Volatility

  This ratio should not be used to simply predict price. (Sadly, It ain´t that easy). But it’s a great tool to predict volatility. 

  When the ratio goes up volatility goes down. There´s enough grain for everybody and people aren’t worried about shortage shocks. 

  If the ratio goes down, volatility goes up. People fear a grain shortage and price action turns wild.

  Don’t Follow The RECORD CROP Trap:

  Everybody likes to scream New Record! And Biggest Crop Ever!

  Check how this will affect the Stocks to Use Ratio, and you will have a better sense of the impact this crop will have on the market and ultimately price.

  It doesn’t mean anything for traders if farmers produce their biggest corn crop ever but demand from China follows the same growth rate. The effects should offset each other and price probably will remain the same.

  Nevertheless, Kudos to the farmers! Their hard work and effort will earn them more income from record output.

  USDA The “FED” of Grains Markets

  The data from the USDA is important… REALLY important. They work as a benchmark and a reference for the entire market, from farmers, to grains processors, to commodity hedge funds. Everybody checks their releases.

  Here are some key reports:

  WASDE

  On the second week of every month the USDA releases it´s WASDE report. (World Agricultural Supply and Demand). Here you will find the Balance Sheet, which has all information you need to know regarding Supply, Demand and Inventories from the most important Countries.

  Please notice that not all WASDE are equally important, some are more than others, and this has to do with the planting season. The USDA does a first forecast and adjusts it when needed from month to month until harvest time. 

  Their forecasts are usually very accurate.

  Prospective Planting Report

  This one is released on the last day of May. It’s a producer survey, and it tries to forecast how many acres of Corn, and how many acres of Soybeans they will plant.

  It’s important to understand that this report expresses the ​Intentions ​of the Producers, so the crops aren’t on the ground yet.

  Acreage Report

  This report shows the effective distribution of acres between Corn and Soybeans. It is released in June. If farmers decided to change their mind during planting season, you will find that the numbers on this report are different from the ones in the Prospective Planting report.  

  USDA is the benchmark but be aware of consensus.

  Alongside the USDA forecasts, there are a number of private reports who try to do the same, and they are fairly accurate too.

  But sometimes USDA numbers will differ greatly from the consensus of the private reports.

  When this happens a shock in prices usually occurs. 

  Story time: In 2016 USDA had a forecast for the Corn Yield of 175 bushels per acre. This was a record yield, and implies a really big crop. The biggest American Corn crop the world has ever seen actually.

  With such an abundant amount of Corn prices SHOULD go lower right?

  Well, the consensus of the market was that USDA was overestimating its yield numbers, and the crop should be smaller than what the USDA predicted. Around 170 was the private yield forecast. The price reaction to this situation was that Corn Futures went UP instead of down after the USDA report was released. 

  Fast-forward a couple of months later, and guess what the final yield was? Yup, 175… Old USDA had it right all along.

  Please notice that I’m not suggesting to trade the consensus side. That would be equally as bad as blindly trading the USDA numbers.

  All I’m trying to say is that you should know what the benchmark is. Check if the consensus agrees or diverts from the benchmark, and then focus on price reaction. You will need to develop your price action skills sharply! That will help you more on the long run than just memorizing fundamental data.

  Don’t Fall For The Most Accurate Forecast Trap

  Our last point should tell you a thing or two about forecast reports. If you are a TRADER your focus must be on PRICE, period.

  If you’re an analyst who is getting paid a salary to come up with a forecast, then yes, you should commit yourself to be as accurate as humanly possible.

  But if you want to trade grains and be profitable, you shouldn’t pay that close attention to the actual yield number. You must look for the benchmark and the consensus, that´s it. (Benchmark=USDA Consensus=Private Reports)

  As a Trader it just doesn’t matter if your forecast of a number is correct. You want to be right on price! So don’t waste your energy trying to forecast where supply or demand is going to be. Focus on market expectations, price reaction and trade accordingly. Play The Player! 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 17:45

• Schiff: Gold Neared Record Highs This Week… And It's Not Just Russia
  Schiff: Gold Neared Record Highs This Week… And It’s Not Just Russia

  Via SchiffGold.com,

  Gold pushed above $2,000 an ounce on Tuesday and made a run at the all-time record high. The yellow metal was up $54 on the day, closing at $2,052 despite some selling after it nudged the all-time high.

  

  Some of this is clearly safe-haven buying due to the situation in Russia, and a lot of analysts think gold will fall back to earth once that situation resolves. But Peter Schiff doesn’t think so. In his podcast, he explains why gold would be going up even if Russia never invaded Ukraine.

  Gold stocks have lagged behind the rally in physical metal. Peter said this indicates that a lot of investors don’t think this gold rally will hold.

  Gold is going up, as it should go up. But because of this event, you have people who think, well, that’s the only reason gold’s going up.”

  And at some point, the situation in Ukraine will resolve.

  A lot of people think, well, as soon as this thing gets resolved, the price of gold is going to crash, and so I’m not going to buy these gold stocks based on a temporarily inflated gold price. … If you think the gold price is going to crash once we have some type of resolution of this Russia situation, you are reluctant to pay up for these gold stocks.”

  But Peter said he doesn’t think an end to the Russia-Ukraine war is bearish for gold. He did concede that the price of gold would likely drop on the day we get news that the war is resolved and sanctions are lifted. But Peter said it won’t stay down.

  Before too long, whether it’s a matter of days or maybe a matter of weeks, gold will make a new high. Because gold is going up regardless of what goes on with Russia and Ukraine.”

  Keep in mind, gold was on an upward trajectory before the Russian invasion. The Fed was on the cusp of raising rates, so higher interest rates were already factored into the price. The US economy was already in the process of rolling over. Just look at the January trade deficit. It set another record high.

  The US economy is extremely weak. We are hemorrhaging red ink with these massive deficits. These deficits would have been weighing down the dollar.”

  In fact, the dollar was falling prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The war has driven safe-haven buying into the dollar over the last couple of weeks. This is actually a headwind for gold.

  The gold market was already looking behind the rate-hike mountain into the rate-cutting valley because after the Fed finished the rate hike cycle, which I think was going to be a very truncated cycle — it may have even ended before it began because even the tiniest of pins would prick this bubble. And as the US economy moved into recession, the Fed would reverse course, cut rates, return to QE, and I think the gold market already started to factor that in. And so, since the Russia situation has now caused this safe-haven rally into the dollar – the dollar index now at 99 – that is a headwind for gold. Had the dollar index continued to fall, that would have been more bullish for the price of gold.”

  Also prior to the invasion, there was a major rotation out of US stocks into European stocks. In a rotation out of momentum into value, Europe had a lot of those value stocks. That was putting even more pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, we were also seeing a movement into commodities, including gold and silver. So the situation was generally bullish for gold prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

  Peter said the Russia-Ukraine situation is “just a bunch of noise.”

  The real story is one of inflation. And the inflation story is getting bleaker and bleaker for America and other countries, and brighter and brighter for gold.”

  Think about how much the landscape has changed for gold in a bullish direction. Today, we have $125 oil, food prices are skyrocketing, the NASDAQ is in a bear market.

  So now, whatever investors were penciling in as far as how many hikes the Fed was going to make, or how quickly or by how much the Fed’s balance sheet was going to shrink, they’ve had to refigure those numbers. They’ve had to cross out some of the rate hikes that they had penciled in or erase them. The same thing with QE. Clearly, whatever you thought the Fed was going to do, they’re going to do less of it given what’s going on right now.”

  We may get one-and-done with rate hikes. And the Fed may not even start shrinking the balance sheet. This is bullish for gold with or without the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

  In this podcast, Peter also talks about the stock market, the price of oil and bitcoin.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/13/2022 – 17:15

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