Oct 14

Today’s News 14th October 2024

  • Why We Shouldn't Expect Peace In 2025
    Why We Shouldn’t Expect Peace In 2025

    Submitted by Vincenzo Lorusso,

    With a likely victory of Donald Trump in a month’s time, one may be forgiven for expecting that he will be true to his promise to end the Ukraine war “in 24 hours”. 

    Logic and facts on the ground suggest that this outcome is highly unlikely.

    First, next year Moscow will increase military spending by 22.6% compared to this year and by 54% compared to the original project for 2025, drawn up at the end of 2023. Defense spending will exceed 8% of GDP and will amount to a staggering 40% of all federal spending.

    Do you think that this spending is related to the fact that the war ends next year?

    The Kremlin will enter the path of negotiations only when it achieves the main military-political goal of the campaign: Ukraine’s non-participation in NATO.

    At the moment, the situation around the special military operation can hardly be considered concluded for negotiations to begin.

    The Russian armed forces are facing the fall of Pokrovsk, Mirnograd, Chasov Yar. The complete liberation of Donbass and access to the Dnepropetrovsk region are already a preliminary sign of Russia’s victory. Before that happens, talking about Moscow’s participation in the negotiations is empty talk.

    However, with the whole of NATO technological fire power aligned against it, accomplishing this goal will take Russia a lot of time and money. Military experts from both camps have been consistently wrong since the outset.

    Secondly, the end of the conflict is not beneficial to the United States. No matter how much Trump and other Republicans complain about the Ukrainian issue and link all America’s problems to it, the Ukrainian war is the most successful investment in US foreign policy in recent decades.

    You have to be a complete idiot to believe that Americans are sorry for the $150-200 billion spent that will impoverish Russia.

    In 20 years, America has spent more than a trillion dollars on Afghanistan. But is it possible to compare Afghanistan’s dividends with Ukraine’s? The EU economy is destroyed and totally dependent on the United States, Russian gas and oil are being withdrawn from the European market, Russia is spending enormous resources on victory in the Ukrainian steppes.

    And now the question is: how many tens of thousands of American soldiers would have to die with the direct participation of the United States in the conflict with the Russian Federation to achieve such indicators? Incredible results are achieved at the cost of the lives of Ukrainians, which no one cares about.

    Any sane person in the place of the US President would in no case limit the Ukrainian conflict, but would continue it. If there had been any pressure to resolve the conflict, it should by now have come from Europe. Alas, for reasons that will be poured over by historians for decades to come, there is no such sign. Quite  the contrary.

    Thirdly, premature peace is not beneficial for China. The warming of the “Korean” and “Taiwanese” cards is coming. Beijing would prefer that by the time conflicts in the Asian region resume, the United States would be “in trouble” and forced to be distracted by other local conflicts. In addition, peace in Ukraine in the current conditions is a complete geopolitical triumph for the United States. On such a victorious wave, all the centrifugal forces of the world will accept the will of the White House, depriving Beijing of room for maneuver. Many countries currently “sitting on the fence” or at least keeping their options open would have to conclude that Russia does not have the force to shape a future world order.

    China will contribute in every possible way to the prolongation of the conflict until: a) Russia enforces its conditions and humiliates the West; b) China does not deem it necessary to be ready for an acute phase of confrontation with the United States.

    The dream of the West in the war in Ukraine is the destruction of Russia, or to make it a vassal state like any “little Italy” or all other European countries.

    The White House will do everything to force the Kremlin to abandon the alliance with Beijing, the main competitor of the United States.

    They dream of the maximum impoverishment of the Russian Federation, after which they will try to impose the “rules of the 1990s”, when Moscow was an absolutely amorphous and non-independent actor.

    Neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris will change this strategic logic, since it is fully consistent with the interests of the deep state and the largest global financial institutions.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 10/14/2024 – 02:00

  • Violence Has Been Normalized
    Violence Has Been Normalized

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via DailyReckoning.com,

    During the misnamed and mostly preposterous debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, a moderator fact-checked Trump’s claim that crime is up.

    In contrast to Trump’s claim, moderator David Muir said that the FBI reports that crime is down, a claim that likely struck every viewer as obviously wrong.

    Shoplifting was not a way of life before lockdowns. Most cities were not demographic minefields of danger around every corner. There was no such thing as a drugstore with nearly all products behind locked Plexiglas.

    We weren’t warned of spots in cities, even medium-sized ones, where carjacking was a real risk.

    It is wildly obvious that high crime in the U.S. is endemic, with ever less respect for person and property. As for the FBI’s statistics, they’re worth about as much as most data coming from federal agencies these days.

    They’re there for purposes of propaganda, manipulated to present the most favorable picture possible to help the regime.

    Lies, Damn Lies and Government Statistics

    This is certainly true of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Commerce Department, which have been shoveling out obvious nonsense for years.

    Professionals in the field know it but go along for reasons of professional survival. In truth, we’ve never had a real economic recovery since lockdowns.

    Crime is up. Literacy is down. Trust has collapsed. Societies were shattered and remain so.

    Only a few weeks following the officious fact-check at the debate, we now have new data from the National Crime Victimization Survey.

    The Wall Street Journal reports:

    “The urban violent-crime rate increased 40% from 2019–2023. Excluding simple assault, the urban violent-crime rate rose 54% over that span. From 2022–2023, the urban violent-crime rate didn’t change to a statistically significant degree, so these higher crime rates appear to be the new norm in America’s cities.”

    But the FBI tries to tell you that crime is down. Sure, whatever they say.

    The report isolates the “post-George Floyd protests” because no media source wants to mention the lockdowns. It is still a taboo subject.

    We somehow cannot say, even now, that the worst abuses of rights in U.S. history in terms of scale and depth were a disaster, simply because saying so implicates the whole of the media, both parties, all government agencies, academia and all the upper reaches of the social and political order.

    Politics Has Become Life and Death

    The problem of political division is getting alarmingly serious. It’s no longer just about competing yard signs and loud rallies. We now have regular assassination attempts, plus even an extremely strange appearance of a bounty put on a candidate’s head by an official agency.

    Surveys have shown that 26 million people in the U.S. believe that violence is fine to keep Trump from regaining the presidency. Where might people have gotten that idea?

    Probably from many Hollywood movies that fantasize about having killed Hitler before he accomplished his evil plus the nonstop likening of Trump to Hitler, and hence one follows from another.

    Liken Trump to Hitler and that is the result you produce.

    There’s private violence, public violence and many forms in between including vigilante violence. Rights violations against person and property are now normalized.

    This springs from the culture of our times which has been heavily informed and even defined by the deployment of state violence in service of policy goals, at a scale, scope and depth never before seen.

    The Role of Censorship

    Censorship is a major part of it. Censorship is the deployment of force in service of state power, and other institutions connected to state power, for purposes of culture planning.

    It’s exercised by the shallow state, in response to the middle state, and on behalf of the deep state. It’s a form of violence that interrupts the free flow of information: the ability to speak, and the ability to learn.

    Censorship trains the population to be quiet, afraid and constantly stressed, and it sorts people by the compliant versus the dissidents. Censorship is designed to shape the public mind toward the end of shoring up regime stability. Once it starts, there’s no limit to it.

    I’ve mentioned to people that Substack, Rumble and X could be banned by the spring of next year, and people respond with incredulity. Why? Four years ago, we were locked in our homes and locked out of churches, and the schools for which people pay all year were shut down by government force.

    If they can do that, they can do anything.

    Remember Free Speech?

    Censorship has been so effective that it’s changed the way we engage with each other even in private. Brownstone Institute, which I founded, recently held a private retreat for scholars, fellows and special guests.

    One very special guest wrote me that she was completely shocked at the freedom of thought and speech that was present in the room. As a mover in the highest circles, she had forgotten what that was like.

    This censorship coincides with a strange valorization of violence that we are presented with from all over the world: Ukraine, the Middle East, London, Paris and many American cities. Never have so many held video cameras in their pockets and never have there been so many platforms on which to post the results.

    One does wonder how all these relentless presentations of destruction and killing affect public culture.

    Why They’re Doing It

    What purpose are all these soft, hard, public and private exercises of violence serving? The standard of living is suffering, lives are shortening, despair and ill health are main features of the population and illiteracy has swept through an entire generation.

    The decision to deploy violence to master the microbial kingdom did not turn out well. Worse, it unleashed violence as a way of life.

    “When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society,” wrote Frederic Bastiat, “over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.”

    That is precisely where we are. It’s time we talk about it and name the culprit. Liberty, privacy and property were already unsafe before 2020 but it was the lockdowns that unleashed Pandora’s box of evils.

    We cannot live this way. The only arguments worth having are those that name the reason for the suffering and offer a viable path back to civilized living.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 23:20

  • UMich Chinese Grads Criminally Charged For Military-Base Photos
    UMich Chinese Grads Criminally Charged For Military-Base Photos

    Via The College Fix,

    Federal law enforcement has charged five recent University of Michigan graduates who were found taking photos near a military base hundreds of miles from campus.

    The recent grads are accused of “lying and trying to cover their tracks, more than a year after they were confronted in the dark near a remote Michigan military site where thousands of people had gathered for summer drills,” according to the Associated Press.

    “The five, who were University of Michigan students at the time, were not charged for what happened at Camp Grayling in August 2023,” the AP reported. “Rather they are accused of misleading investigators about the trip and conspiring to clear their phones of photos, according to a criminal complaint filed in federal court.”

    “The defendants are not in custody,” the U.S. Attorney’s office said. “Should they come into contact with U.S. authorities, they will be arrested and face these charges.”

    “We are media,” the students said when “confronted” by a National Guard member, the AP reported.

    The students graduated in spring as part of a “joint program between the university and the Shanghai Jiao Tong University in Shanghai, China,” the AP reported.

    “They have been identified as Zhekai Xu, Renxiang Guan, Haoming Zhu, Jingzhe Tao, and Yi Liang,” Just the News reported.

    A Michigan congressman said the charges highlight the need to be “vigilant” about spying from the Chinese Communist Party.

    Michigan Republicans have been critical of plans for a Chinese Communist Party-linked battery company to build a plant just 88 miles from the military base.

    Congressman John Moolenar stated in his news release:

    This case shows once again that CCP espionage can happen anywhere in America and we must be vigilant. The CCP obviously has an interest in Camp Grayling and this is further evidence it would be a mistake for Michigan leaders to allow Gotion to build in our state. State funding for Gotion’s plan to bring Chinese nationals to Mecosta County is an open invitation for further spying on Camp Grayling.

    “For national security reasons, Governor Whitmer and the legislature must revoke state funding for Gotion immediately,” the Republican Congressman stated, linking the charges against the students to the battery plant.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 22:10

  • Whitmer Apologizes For Lesbian Hagmaxxing Dorito Stunt After Catholic Backlash
    Whitmer Apologizes For Lesbian Hagmaxxing Dorito Stunt After Catholic Backlash

    Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has apologized for a video in which she feeds a social media influencer a Dorito chip – a stunt widely slammed by Catholic organizations as mocking the sacrament of communion.

    In the video, influencer Liz Plank kneels before Whitmer, who feeds her the chip. Whitmer then gazes at the camera while wearing a Harriz-Walz hat.

    “I would never do something to denigrate someone’s faith,” Whitmer said in a statement provided to Michigan’s WJBK, adding that the stunt was meant to promote legislation signed by President Joe Biden in 2022 known as the “Chips Act,” which provides $280 billion to research and manufacture semiconductors.

    According to Whitmer, it was “construed as something it was never intended to be, and I apologize for that.”

    A likely story… more like a blasphemous lesbian hagmaxxing fetish.

    Whitmer’s stunt was slammed by the Michigan Catholic Conference, which accused Whitmer and Plank of “specifically imitating the posture and gestures of Catholics receiving the Eucharist.”

    Paul Long, the conference’s CEO, said of Whitmer’s apology: “While dialogue on this issue with the governor’s office is appreciated, whether or not insulting Catholics and the Eucharist was the intent, it has had an offensive impact.”

    Also, what’s this weird Dorito thing going on with Democrats? #Doritogate?

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 21:35

  • Hedge Fund CIO: "After The Last Disillusioned Gold Bulls Sold Their Final Ounce, Gold Started Rallying… And Has Not Looked Back"
    Hedge Fund CIO: “After The Last Disillusioned Gold Bulls Sold Their Final Ounce, Gold Started Rallying… And Has Not Looked Back”

    By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    “Let me start with the psychology that governed the gold market for years,” I said. It was our IC meeting and the topic of gold’s recent outperformance versus bitcoin came up. “When Bernanke unleashed QE during the GFC, a lot of very smart people rushed to hedge themselves against a massive monetary inflation. Gold was an obvious hedge, and the Baby Boomers were in their investing prime back then. They felt highly exposed to an inflating-away of their life savings. They already owned homes. Many bought gold. Some bought far too much.”

    “Republicans prevented Obama from the wild stimulus spending he sought. And China’s deflation-exporting economy was still being brought online in the aftermath of its WTO ascendance. Plus, Beijing pumped it up through massive subsidies/stimulus. There were surely other reasons why inflation didn’t take off back then. Expectations remained generally stable. And despite Europe’s response to an existential sovereign debt crisis, and Draghi’s 2012 commitment to do “whatever it takes”, the Germans never let spending get out of control.

    “Gold peaked in the summer of 2011 at over $2500/oz and turned lower. By 2015, it had fallen roughly 40%, back to the $1400 level it hit in March 2008. All these Baby Boomers with gold buried in their backyards were gutted. They prayed that if they ever got back to the highs, they’d sell. We’ve all prayed like that. Every one of us. Those who held until July 2020 got the chance to sell again near the 2011 highs at $2400. Covid stimulus sparked that rally. Some sold. Gold fell. The holders begged forgiveness. Then sold. Gold fell 30% over 2yrs.

    “Baby Boomer bulls eventually lost faith. Many needed cash, they were retiring. Some got bearish gold and pointed to the EU’s confiscation of Russia’s foreign reserves following the Ukraine invasion. “If gold couldn’t rally on that, then would it ever,” they asked. The last disillusioned bulls sold their final ounce. Then gold started rallying. It has not looked back. That’s what can happen to a market once you clean out the remaining stale positions. A clean market can really move, given a clear fundamental catalyst; gold has at least two.

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    “The confiscation of Russian assets means governments will increasingly diversify their foreign reserves into non-sovereign assets. Gold is one. And now that China is committing to stimulus, every major economic zone appears to be doing the opposite of austerity. So, in a world of potentially infinite fiat, scarce assets should appreciate. Gold has. It’s +40% over the past 12mths. Bitcoin is +134% over that period. But for the past 7mths, Bitcoin has chopped around in a 30% range (13% below all-time highs), while gold continued upward. Why?

    When Bitcoin hit $59k in Apr 2021, the bullishness was insane. It fell nearly 50% through that summer and made new highs around $65k in Nov 2021. Then it collapsed to the $15k area on the FTX failure. A material portion of bulls who endured that net worth crash prayed to God that they’d sell some, most, maybe even all (probably not all, this is crypto) if they ever got back to the highs. Bitcoin hit $72.75k this Mar. There’s been selling into every market rally since, even as clear fundamental catalysts appear (the same ones as for gold). And as this happens, market positioning gets cleaner. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 21:00

  • Number Of Apple Vision Pro Apps Hit By "Significant Slowdown" As Demand Plunges
    Number Of Apple Vision Pro Apps Hit By “Significant Slowdown” As Demand Plunges

    The number of new apps released for Apple Vision Pro has slid since the mixed-reality headset became available for purchase on February 2. Without killer apps, the success of the over-priced goggles will flounder.

    Wall Street Journal reports that the Vision Pro app ecosystem has experienced a significant slowdown in growth since the launch. Demand for the base $3,499 Vision Pro has been out of reach for many consumers struggling to survive in an era of elevated inflation and high interest rates. The glasses were likely mispriced, hence sluggish demand. 

    More from WSJ: 

    There has been a significant slowdown in new apps coming to the Vision Pro every month. Only 10 apps were introduced to the Vision App Store in September, down from the hundreds released in the first two months of the device’s launch, according to analytics firm Appfigures.

    It has counted around 1,770 apps available for the Vision Pro in the App Store as of September. Only 34% of those apps are built specifically for the Vision Pro, while the rest are versions of existing Apple apps that have additional Vision Pro functionality, Appfigures said.

    Apple said in August that there are more than 2,500 apps built for the Vision Pro. Appfigures said the discrepancy between these two figures could be, in part, because some apps aren’t used enough to register on usage charts, making them difficult for the analytics firm to detect.

    A visualization from the Journal shows a large decline in the number of new apps released for Vision Pro every month since its launch.

    Source: WSJ

    App growth for Vision Pro has fallen off a cliff, and that’s mostly because demand for the futuristic ski goggles costs too damn much for the consumer. It’s literally worth a couple of months of rent or three months of car payments for many average consumers. 

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    Even though Apple hasn’t officially released Vision Pro sales figures, TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo (best known for gathering intelligence from his contacts in Apple’s Asian supply chain) wrote in a note in late April that shipments for the goggles will be around 400k and 450k units for the year, down from earlier estimates of 700k and 800k.

    Separately, Counterpoint Research wrote in a report that Vision Pro’s second-quarter sales figures imploded 80% from the first quarter.

    “To catch on, the Vision Pro would need killer apps, which helped turn the iPhone into one of the most popular consumer products in history,” WSJ noted. 

    However, as we previously noted… 

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    Just like the AI-enabled iPhone 16, another bust for Apple. 

    Yet, Apple’s market capitalization is somehow at $3.5 trillion.

    Moar buybacks, Tim Cook. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 20:25

  • Private Equity Firms Are Now Acquiring Skilled Trade Small Businesses
    Private Equity Firms Are Now Acquiring Skilled Trade Small Businesses

    Turns out those years at vocational school and going into business instead of going to college are starting to pay off. 

    Other than having the benefit of learning a trade, private equity has now taken a keen interest in buying skilled trade small businesses, according to a new report from the Wall Street Journal. 

    Private equity firms nationwide are acquiring home services companies, such as HVAC, plumbing, and electrical businesses, aiming to create larger, more profitable operations.

    This trend moves these companies away from family ownership, offering mom-and-pop businesses significant payouts, unlike previous generations where firms were typically passed down to children or employees.

    Brian Rassel, a partner at the Detroit-based Huron Capital told WSJ: “You don’t need to go to Silicon Valley to have a successful career and entrepreneurial opportunities.”

    Rite Way owner Aaron Rice / Photo: WSJ

     Adam Hanover, chairman of Redwood Services, added: “Everybody and their uncle owns an HVAC business in the private-equity space today.”

    The Journal report says that Redwood has acquired 35 companies in the past four years, from smaller businesses, typically bought for around $1 million, to larger firms like Rite Way, valued at about $20 million, where it takes majority stakes.

    Rite Way, has thrived under Redwood, growing annual revenue from $30 million to $70 million. The company expanded beyond HVAC into plumbing and electrical services, benefiting from increased capital, more service trucks, higher staffing, and new apprenticeship and sales training programs.

    Redwood also brought in accountants to focus on profitability. According to Redwood CEO Richard Lewis, small business owners often struggle to manage these tasks or fail to update pricing. Redwood reviews pricing quarterly to stay competitive.

    The trades offer good wages for workers without college degrees and can serve as stepping stones for aspiring entrepreneurs. HVAC worker Aaron Rice, who co-founded his plumbing business in 2012 after overcoming addiction and prison time, sold the company when it had 18 employees and $3 million in annual revenue.

    He said the sale has given him peace of mind, telling WSJ: “I want to hunt, fish, drink beer and cook meat.” 

    You can read the Journal’s full report here. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 19:15

  • Voters See A Choice Between "Leadership" And "Likability": Gallup
    Voters See A Choice Between “Leadership” And “Likability”: Gallup

    By Lidia Saad of Gallup.

    Recent ratings of the 2024 presidential candidates’ personal qualities show Vice President Kamala Harris with a strong advantage over former President Donald Trump in U.S. voter perceptions of being likable, while holding smaller leads for having strong moral character and being honest and trustworthy. Trump outpaces Harris in perceptions of being a strong and decisive leader and being able to get things done.

    Despite this clear image distinction — Harris credited with character, Trump with leadership — neither candidate has a perceptual edge in voters’ beliefs that each possesses five other presidential competencies: managing the government effectively, displaying good judgment in a crisis, having a vision for the country’s future, caring about the needs of people, and being someone people would be proud to have as president.

    These findings are from a Sept. 16-28 Gallup survey, conducted after the Sept. 10 presidential debate that gave Americans their one opportunity of the campaign to see the candidates interact.

    Perceptions of Trump are similar to what Gallup found at the same time in 2020, except voters are now slightly more likely to believe he would display good judgment in a crisis, up six percentage points to 52%.

    Trump’s rating for being honest and trustworthy is higher now than his 38% rating in 2016 when he won the election. However, even at that lower level, Trump’s honesty rating exceeded Hillary Clinton’s, at 31%. This changed in 2020 when, despite seeing his “honest” score improve to 41%, Trump trailed Joe Biden by 11 points on this character dimension.

    In fact, in the three presidential election cycles since 2012, when Gallup first measured presidential qualities this way, the candidate with the higher honest/trustworthy score has won. Other characteristics have not been asked frequently enough to observe their track record.

    Summary Assessments Show Mixed Results

    Harris leads Trump by 51% to 45% on a different question that asks, more broadly, whether each candidate has “the personality and leadership qualities a president should have.” Thus, although Trump separately does better on the “strong and decisive leader” item, Harris’ higher ratings for being likable and of strong moral character may count more in voters’ answers to this question.

    At the same time, the two are tied in Americans’ views of each on the issues. About half (49%) say they agree with Trump “on the issues that matter most to you,” and 47% agree with Harris.

    Democrats See Harris in Better Terms Than Republicans See Trump

    Most partisans believe their own candidate possesses the positive characteristics tested in the poll, but Democrats are more convinced than Republicans about certain ones.

    Between 89% and 95% of Democrats say each characteristic applies to Harris. And while Republicans show similarly high regard for Trump on most of the traits, fewer than nine in 10 agree he is honest and trustworthy (84%), has strong moral character (82%) or is likable (74%).

    Independents’ views are similar to those of all voters nationally on most of the qualities. Still, they are slightly less positive than Americans as a whole about Harris being caring, honest and trustworthy, or a strong and decisive leader. Independents are also less likely than the national average to say Trump has strong moral character, but they show slightly above-average belief that he is a strong leader.

    More Voters Credit Harris Than Trump With Running an Effective Campaign

    While Trump is tied with Harris in perceptions of being able to manage the federal government, he trails his Democratic opponent by 10 points in ratings of how they are running their campaigns. Whereas 56% of registered voters say Harris is doing an excellent or good job at this, 46% rate Trump as highly. The timing of the poll, coming soon after the presidential debate, could have influenced this result.

    Trump’s deficit on this measure is due mainly to political independents, whose 41% excellent/good rating of his campaign is much closer to the 15% he receives from Democrats than to his 86% from Republicans. At the same time, independents’ 53% rating of Harris’ campaign falls squarely between the two partisan groups (90% from Democrats and 21% from Republicans).

    Neither Candidate Viewed as More Politically Extreme

    Even as Trump attempts to define Harris by some of the more liberal aspects of her record while Harris links Trump to the conservative Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, the candidates appear to be at a draw in terms of painting each other as extremist. Close to half of voters, 48%, say Trump’s political views are “too conservative,” while a statistically equivalent 51% call Harris “too liberal.” Most others see each as about right.

    Notably, Harris is less likely to be branded “too liberal” than Biden was before he exited the race in June, when 58% said this of him. However, slightly more voters view Harris as too liberal than recent Democratic nominees Barack Obama in both 2008 (45%) and 2012 (47%) and John Kerry in 2004 (47%). She is also more likely to be called too liberal than Al Gore was in 2000 (35%), as well as Bill Clinton in 1992 (33%) and 1996 (36%). The question wasn’t asked about Hillary Clinton in 2016.

    At 48%, Trump is more likely to be rated “too conservative” than were the Republicans who ran for president before him, including Mitt Romney (43% in 2012), John McCain (35% in 2008) and George W. Bush (40% in 2004).

    Democrats More Satisfied With Harris Than Republicans Are With Trump

    More Democrats, including independents who lean Democratic, say they are generally pleased with Harris as their party’s presidential nominee than Republicans and Republican leaners say they are pleased with Trump as theirs, 85% vs. 73%.

    Democrats’ enthusiasm for Harris is in stark contrast to how they felt about Biden when he was still their party’s presumptive nominee in June. At that point, barely a third of Democrats (34%) were pleased with Biden, while 65% wished someone else were the nominee.

    Today’s broad Democratic support for Harris being the nominee also contrasts with how Democrats felt in September 2016 after Hillary Clinton was nominated. Then, just over half (55%) said they were pleased, while 43% would rather have had someone else.

    Republicans are about as pleased today to have Trump as their presidential nominee as they were in 2020 (74%), but they are happier now than when he first ran in 2016. In September of that year, barely half of Republicans (52%) were pleased with having Trump lead the GOP ticket.

    Trump Hasn’t Inherited Biden’s Age Problem

    The age of the candidates was a potential campaign liability for the Democrats earlier this year, when two-thirds of Americans in June thought the 81-year-old Biden was too old to be president. Far fewer, 37%, said the same about 78-year-old Trump.

    Yet, despite Trump now being the older candidate by nearly 20 years, the percentage saying he’s too old hasn’t changed much since facing Harris, with 41% expressing that view today.

    As the oldest Republican nominee, Trump is still more likely to be viewed as too old than John McCain was at age 72 in 2008 (20%) and Bob Dole was at age 73 in 1996 (32%).

    Harris Compares Favorably With Biden

    In addition to Democrats viewing her far more favorably as a candidate and ideologically than they did Biden, Harris is performing significantly better nationally on two other metrics than Biden was before he withdrew from the race.

    • Voters are more likely to say they agree with her on the issues than did so for Biden in June (47% vs. 37%, respectively).
    • Voters are more likely to say Harris has the leadership qualities needed in a president than thought Biden did (51% vs. 38%).

    Biden’s readings are from a June 3-23 poll when his presidential approval rating was 38%. Following his withdrawal on July 21, the president’s job approval rating rose to 43% in an August Gallup poll. It dipped back to 39% in early September but is 45% in the latest poll. That’s his highest approval rating since August 2021, just before the United States’ troubled pullout of military forces from Afghanistan.

    Bottom Line

    Trump and Harris look evenly matched overall, with neither possessing knockout advantages in voters’ ratings of their images, perceptions of their ideology, agreement on issues, ratings for how they are conducting their campaigns, or perceptions that one or the other is too old. If the race comes down to which candidate can get better results in the Oval Office, Trump may have the upper hand. But if voters perceive leadership more holistically, factoring in their perceptions of each candidate’s personality and character, Harris may have the edge.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 18:40

  • Top Cushman & Wakefield Real Estate Broker Has Phone Seized By NY Prosecutors In Adams Probe
    Top Cushman & Wakefield Real Estate Broker Has Phone Seized By NY Prosecutors In Adams Probe

    As if commercial real estate in New York didn’t have enough problems…

    It was reported at the end of last week that the office of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has seized the phone of a broker working for Cushman & Wakefield, one of the world’s largest commercial real estate services firms, according to Bisnow.

    Investigators from Bragg’s office have seized electronic devices from a Cushman & Wakefield broker linked to the city’s office leases and a close friend of Mayor Adams’ top adviser, according to The New York Times.

    On September 27, investigators confiscated the phones of Cushman & Wakefield Vice Chair Diana Boutross, Mayor’s Chief Advisor Ingrid Lewis-Martin, and Jesse Hamilton, head of the city’s real estate department, at JFK Airport after their trip to Japan. Lewis-Martin and Boutross have been longtime friends, her attorney, Arthur Aidala, told Bisnow.

    Aidala commented: “There were eight friends who decided to go to one of the biggest tourist countries in the world to just explore on a long-planned friendship trip.” 

    A spokesperson for Cushman & Wakefield said: “We have a longstanding, 15-year relationship with the city that spans across multiple mayoral administrations and we are proud of the important work we’ve done for DCAS.”

    The Bisnow report says that Boutross oversees Cushman & Wakefield’s account with the Department of Citywide Administrative Services, the agency responsible for leasing government office space.

    Her resume includes work with The Durst Organization and The Trump Organization. Cushman & Wakefield has held a $40M contract with the city since 2014, linked to a Bronx 911 facility, Crain’s reported.

    The firm also handled major city office leases, including a 640K SF deal at 110 William St. last year. Investigators seized devices from Lewis-Martin and Hamilton and searched Lewis-Martin’s home, issuing her a subpoena related to Adams’ recent indictment.

    “These searches and any negative connotations associated with them or this preplanned vacation are baseless. In due time, all the facts will come out and will be supported by evidence and demonstrate everything was done properly,” Aidala concluded. 

     

     

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 18:05

  • Why Silver Investors Should Pay Close Attention To Copper
    Why Silver Investors Should Pay Close Attention To Copper

    Authored by Jesse Colombo via Substack

    For most investors, gold and silver are inseparable, like peanut butter and jelly or two peas in a pod. This mindset leads them to look at gold for signals on silver’s future price movements, and vice versa. Although silver’s price is indeed strongly influenced by gold, few realize the significant role that copper also plays in shaping silver’s price movements. In this article, I’ll examine how copper prices impact silver and show how bullish trends in copper should help drive silver prices higher in the coming years.

    To understand the price relationship between two assets, examining their correlations can be highly insightful. Not surprisingly, gold and silver exhibit a strong correlation—.771 over the past five years and an even higher .917 over the past year. What’s particularly striking, however, is the strong correlation between copper and silver—.725 over the past five years and an impressive .878 over the past year. This strong correlation is a compelling reason for silver investors to monitor copper as closely as they do gold.

    The strong price relationship between silver and copper is clearly reflected in long-term charts of the silver-to-copper ratio, which has remained remarkably consistent over time, despite periodic fluctuations around the average of 6:

    The close relationship between silver and copper can be attributed to factors influencing both supply and demand. From a supply standpoint, silver is seldom mined on its own. Instead, it is typically a byproduct of copper and other metal mining, such as lead, zinc, and gold. On the demand side, both silver and copper have substantial industrial applications, driving significant industrial demand for both metals.

    While silver is often grouped with gold, it differs significantly in its demand profile. The majority of silver demand (51%) comes from industrial use, compared to just 18% from investment. Furthermore, the rapid growth in industrial demand for silver likely explains the rising correlation between silver and copper in recent years. In contrast, gold demand is largely fueled by investment (44.57%) and jewelry (48.74%)—with much of that jewelry also serving as a form of investment, especially in developing countries like India and China.

    Both copper and silver are far more sensitive to the economic cycle compared to gold. For instance, when a recession looms, both copper and silver prices tend to decline in anticipation of reduced industrial demand. Conversely, when the economic cycle is on an upswing, both copper and silver prices typically rise in anticipation of increased industrial demand. Gold, by contrast, is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset that investors turn to during times of crisis.

    The strong price relationship between silver and copper is likely amplified by trading algorithms that predict movements in one metal based on the price of the other, often creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. For instance, when copper begins to rally, certain algorithms will buy silver, causing both metals to rise in tandem. Although anecdotal, I’ve often observed silver track copper even more closely than gold, both on intraday movements and over longer timeframes. For instance, I’ve often seen silver rise with copper while gold stayed flat or declined, and at other times, I’ve observed silver dropping along with copper even as gold rallied. I’ll highlight a recent noteworthy example of this phenomenon using the charts below.

    As you are probably aware, gold has experienced a remarkable surge over the past year, climbing by $860 per ounce—a nearly 50% increase:

    Like gold, copper experienced a strong rally in the spring, but it peaked on May 20th and quickly reversed, wiping out most of its gains—unlike gold, which continued to rise. Copper bottomed on August 8th and has rebounded quite a bit since then and is now in a confirmed uptrend once again:

    Finally, we come to silver, which, like gold and copper, saw a sharp rally in the spring. Like copper, silver peaked on May 20th and experienced a sharp decline, though not as severe as copper’s drop. While silver and copper suffered throughout the summer, gold steadily continued its ascent. Silver, like copper, bottomed on August 8th and has been staging an impressive recovery ever since.

    Silver’s price movements are essentially a hybrid of both gold and copper’s market trends. To test this theory, I averaged the prices of gold and copper, adjusting copper’s price (by multiplying by 540) to prevent gold’s higher price from exerting undue influence. Then, I created a chart based on that adjusted average. Sure enough, the resulting chart bears a striking resemblance to silver’s price chart:

    Moreover, the five-year correlation with silver stands at a solid 0.842, while the one-year correlation is an even more impressive 0.956. This is higher than the correlation between gold and silver (0.771 over five years and 0.917 over the past year) and even stronger than the correlation between copper and silver (0.725 over five years and 0.878 over the past year). This analysis highlights the importance of monitoring both gold and copper to gain a clearer understanding of silver’s price movements. In addition, performing technical analysis on the chart of the copper-gold average seems to be a useful tool for confirming and anticipating silver’s price movements

    Along with bullish technicals, copper’s fundamentals also point to a positive outlook. As the world increasingly embraces AI and “green” technologies such as electric vehicles, solar energy, and wind farms, demand for copper is expected to surge due to its essential role in wiring and other electrical applications.

    For example, copper demand in the transport sector is expected to rise 11.1 times by 2050 compared to 2022, thanks to electric vehicles that contain over a mile of copper wiring. Additionally, demand for copper to expand the global electricity grid is projected to increase 4.8 times by 2050. By 2030, a copper supply gap nearing 10 million tonnes is forecasted. French billionaire and commodities trader Pierre Andurand recently predicted that copper prices could soar to $40,000 per tonne in the coming years—a more than fourfold increase from the current price of $9,308 per tonne. All of these factors should be bullish for both silver and copper.

    In conclusion, the overlooked relationship between copper and silver plays a critical role in understanding silver’s price movements, alongside the more commonly recognized influence of gold. As copper continues to rebound, both technical and fundamental factors suggest that silver is poised to benefit as well. With increasing industrial demand, especially in sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy, copper’s expected boom is likely to drive silver prices higher as well. Investors would do well to monitor copper closely, as its future movements may signal the next major leg up in silver’s bull market.

    Also watch the video presentation about this concept:

    If you enjoyed this article, please visit Jesse’s Substack for more content like this

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 17:30

  • Donald Trump Says He's Doing The Joe Rogan Podcast
    Donald Trump Says He’s Doing The Joe Rogan Podcast

    During an interview on the Nelk Boys’ Full Send Podcast, Donald Trump said he plans to appear on the Joe Rogan Experience, according to the Washington Examiner. 

    When asked by host Kyle Forgeard if he would consider going on Rogan’s podcast, Trump responded last week: “Oh sure, I think I’m doing it actually.” He later confirmed, “Yeah, I am.”

    Rogan has yet to confirm the booking, the Examiner noted. The discussion seemed to start last week after this article noting Rogan was running out of time to interview Trump. Elon Musk sent the discussion to the stratosphere when he said last week: “It will happen”. 

    Musk made the post responding to our article, “Joe Rogan Has 25 Days To Interview Donald Trump“, submitted by Zero Hedge contributor Quoth the Raven, who wrote on Tuesday: “I can’t listen to another 4 years of Rogan bitch about how bad things have gotten if he won’t talk to Trump.”

    Rogan has been notoriously uninterested in the interview, which he has been asked about multiple times over the last half decade. Back in June 2023, when asked about the idea, Rogan said to Lex Fridman:

    “I have had the opportunity to have him on my show, more than once, and I have said no every time. I don’t want to help him, I’m not interested in helping him.”

    By August 2023, it looked like Rogan might be changing his tune, as he told Valuetainment’s Patrick Bet-David:

    “I don’t know. Maybe. At a certain point in time. Just like, it would be interesting to hear his perspective on a lot of things.”

    Since then, Rogan has stated his admiration for RFK, Jr., who is now supporting Trump. He has also given a platform to Tulsi Gabbard, who is campaigning with, and for, Trump. The idea that Rogan wouldn’t interview Trump, who has recently done podcasts with Theo Von and Andrew Schultz, to name a few, seems bizarre. 

    QTR wrote on his blog last Tuesday night that “If anything, an interview would give Rogan an opportunity to push Trump on the things that he disagrees with him on. Bring him on and give him hell if you want, Joe. Rogan could even extend an invitation to the Harris campaign and invite her on for a separate appearance if she wants.”

    “I don’t want to pretend to understand what the problem is that Rogan has with Trump, but all I know is that it’s not bigger than the potential consequences of this election,” he wrote.

    “After listening to Rogan’s podcast for nearly 2,000 episodes, I’m confident in my assessment that he’s a person of integrity and a man of character. The truth is, whether he likes it or not, putting his personal animus aside and getting Trump on the largest media platform in the world can only make an impact for the next month or so.”

    He concluded: “After the November election, especially if Trump loses, there will be no point — and it’ll be impossible to listen to Rogan crow about the lunatics on the left any further, knowing he didn’t talk to Trump when he had the chance. So let’s get real, Joe: what the hell are you waiting for?”

    We may have our answer soon…

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 16:55

  • Beware Of Kamala Harris Neo-Marxist Idea
    Beware Of Kamala Harris Neo-Marxist Idea

    Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

    On numerous occasions, Kamala Harris has spoken in public about the difference between equality and equity. Equality of opportunity is not enough. Even socialist equality, where everyone begins at the same level, falls short. She has repeatedly defined equity as her policy of redistribution, which allows everyone to end up at the same place. When criticizing the often-debated idea of equality, she stated that “the problem with that is that not everybody’s starting in the same place.” Equity, for her, is the solution. She said, “Equitable treatment means we all end up in the same place.”

    Anyone who understands the complexity of the economy knows that this is a ludicrous concept. However, it may sound appealing to the uninformed. Those that feel they suffer a disadvantage due to their humble origins may find that equality of opportunity is not enough, considering the social and economic hardships they have endured. Nevertheless, those who find this message appealing should think twice, because those policies hurt them the most.

    Starting and ending in the same place makes everyone poorer, except for those in government who decide how everyone should start and end. Those politicians become obscenely rich.

    Starting out from the same place is unfair. Ending in the same place is catastrophic. Political imposition causes parents and families who have saved for their children to lose all their hard-earned savings when they start over. You may think that the government will give each child what they need. However, when you grant a government sufficient power to provide for your needs, it also determines what your actual needs are. By destroying the incentives to save and prosper, you also destroy the wealth created to conduct social policies. However, when the government can impose equal starting points and outcome measures, it has all the incentives to keep as much wealth as possible among the political elite. As wealth and prosperity decline, all the government will redistribute is misery.

    When Kamala Harris utters these words, she demonstrates her endorsement of the neo-Marxist ideology and disavows her status as a “capitalist,” a stance she has declared in recent weeks to counteract criticism of her socialist messages.

    Capitalism and free markets cannot exist when the government decides the start and end points.

    Through a classic oversimplification, Neo-Marxism promotes the concept of equity, which entails equal start and end points. If both start from the same point, both will be incentivised to arrive at the same place, which is more prosperous for both and therefore fair. If both people start at the same level and realize their actions will equalize them, how will they react? Give up. No athlete would ever attempt to win if they knew they would all end up in the same position. Eliminating the possibility of losing also destroys the chance of winning and cancels progress in the meantime. The neo-Marxist theory uses this example to argue that, at the very least, they begin at the same time and place. However, that is also a fallacy. The athletes who started the race arrived there through a process of elimination, which required enormous talent and effort and certainly no equality from the start.

    The poor and the middle class get poorer. The government officials become rich. Kamala Harris’ dream of equity embodies exactly what has always happened in every socialist economy. A tyrannical government imposes its policies through repression, causing misery and impoverishment.

    Equality is unfair. Equity is impossible. When you demand either, the outcome is always worse for you.

    Imposing equity destroys all motivation to improve and progress, eliminates meritocracy, and imposes the worst inequality, which is the result of political privilege.

    Allowing governments to decide the start and ending points for all citizens is tyranny. It is simply suicidal to think that politicians know exactly what you need, when you need to start, and where to finish. Politicians do not have more or better information about the needs of the entire economy and even less about everyone’s requirements. Therefore, when faced with the inevitable discontent, the government will always resort to violence and oppression… for your own good.

    This social engineering fable of complete equality of outcome is, of course, impossible in a free society and therefore requires a tyrannical and repressive state that controls every aspect of citizens’ lives. Harris has often repeated in public these neo-Marxist ideas of social engineering, which invariably result in poverty for all. Even if she says she is a capitalist, the truth is that her entire economic program is based on price controls, government intervention, and imposition. In a recent interview at CNBC, she declined to elaborate if she would implement price controls, which have destroyed economies all over the world, only to resort to the fallacy of “a few companies profiting from the desperation of the American people.” More free markets, increased competition, and increased merit and reward for success are what America needs to foster prosperity. The American people’s true desperation will surface when they decide to experiment with neo-Marxist social engineering and socialism to see how it works. This foolish thought can only come from privilege, thinking that the wealth and opportunities that have been created in America will remain the same, eliminating all incentives to thrive.

    Kamala Harris maintains her message of equality of outcome. Tim Waltz, Kamala Harris’ vice-presidential candidate, has also reiterated these principles in public. It would be erroneous to assume that she won’t implement these policies, given her recent ambiguous moderation of her remarks.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 16:20

  • Some 100 US Troops Will Deploy In Israel To Man Anti-Air Batteries
    Some 100 US Troops Will Deploy In Israel To Man Anti-Air Batteries

    On Saturday we were among the first outlets to report that the United States is preparing to deploy THAAD anti-ballistic missile systems in Israel, a major development which will put American troops directly in harm’s way (or… boots on the ground) amid the tense showdown with Iran. 

    The Pentagon in follow-up statements to the NY Times has confirmed the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) systems will be sent to Israel, and that about 100 American troops will operate them.

    US Army Europe

    This means that at least 100 American soldiers will be placed in positions likely to be targeted by another potential barrage of ballistic missiles from Iran, at a moment Israel is preparing its own counterattack in the wake of the the Oct.1st strikes (which witnessed about 200 missiles sent) on Israeli territory from the Islamic Republic. Each full missile battery and associated systems cost American taxpayers some $800 million to $1 billion.

    All of this follows the Pentagon having weeks ago deployed thousands more US troops to the broader region amid escalation in Lebanon. Some of those forces were sent to Cyprus, and others likely to Gulf countries or possibly Jordan.

    The Pentagon has tried to deflect from language which portrays the obvious: that without Congressional authorization American troops are entering an escalating overseas war zone to defend a foreign country.

    The NY Times acknowledged the following exchange:

    When asked on Sunday, Mr. Biden said only that he had ordered the Pentagon to deploy the system “to defend Israel. General Ryder said in his statement that the battery would “augment Israel’s integrated air defense system.” It was not immediately clear how quickly the missile defense system and troops announced on Sunday would arrive in Israel.

    “This action underscores the United States’ ironclad commitment to the defense of Israel, and to defend Americans in Israel, from any further ballistic missile attacks by Iran,” the statement said. “It is part of the broader adjustments the U.S. military has made in recent months to support the defense of Israel and protect Americans from attacks by Iran and Iranian-aligned militias.”

    So interestingly this is the new talking point from the national security state: Americans are being deployed to defend Americans who happen to still be in Israel. This certainly marks a new and interesting rationale.

    This big “gift” is being sent to Israel even after rising tensions between Netanyahu and Biden…

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    One regional observers has observed that this is Netanyahu’s longtime dream come true:

    Journalist Séamus Malekafzali argued the U.S. deployment of troops and the THAAD system shows that “the Israelis are clearly planning something for Iran that is going to cause a retaliation they know their own systems are unable to take.”

    “U.S. troops being deployed to Israel in this matter is seismic,” Malekafzali added. “The U.S. military is now inextricably involved in this war, directly, without any illusions of barriers. Netanyahu is as close as he has ever been to his ultimate wish: making the U.S. fight Iran on Israel’s behalf.”

    Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Saturday had actually issued some soft criticism of Israel after two UN peacekeeping troops in south Lebanon were wounded by Israeli fire an a UNIFIL command post.

    Austin “expressed his deep concern about reports that Israeli forces fired on U.N. peacekeeping positions in Lebanon as well as by the reported death of two Lebanese soldiers” in a phone call with his Israeli counterpart.

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    As for the missile battery contingent of 100 US troops being sent to Israel, likely there were already US special forces and commanders who have been in Tel Aviv and near Gaza in an “advisory” role. But this clearly marks a new much more direct role of US forces in the conflict, especially given the Iranians have already threatened that if hostilities escalate, anti-air batteries in Israel will come under attack.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 15:45

  • A Hard Rain Is Going To Fall
    A Hard Rain Is Going To Fall

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    The core skill going forward – frugality – is largely a forgotten skillset. Time to get busy while we still have time.

    There are core systemic dynamics that are impervious to technological or financial gimmicks, and as they play out, a hard rain is going to fall:

    1) The credit-business cycle. The credit-business cycle has been pushed forward for the past 15 years, and arguably for the past 24 years. The last “real recession”–the organic contraction of credit and risk-taking that drains the excesses from the economy and financial system over the course of several years–occurred 43 years ago in 1981-82.

    The mechanism for pushing this essential cleansing is moral hazard, the disconnection of risk from consequence by unprecedented central bank monetary stimulus and central state fiscal stimulus. The net result of moral hazard is the excesses of risk and debt are rewarded and expand to even more precarious heights, ensuring the eventual downturn will be far more destructive than had the system been allowed to fully re-set in 2000-02 and again in 2008-09.

    2) The reversal of financialization and the collapse of the Everything Bubble and the wealth effect. The commoditization of credit, leverage and speculation is a boon when first introduced to a credit-starved economy, but once the productive investments have been made, financialization continues expanding into extremes of debt, leverage and speculation.

    Central banks have used one trick to keep the expansion going: they dropped interest rates to zero, enabling borrowers and speculators to borrow / leverage more with the same income. This expansion of credit boosted assets to extreme valuations as all this new “money” chased a limited quantity of assets. The credit-asset bubble increases the value of the collateral–the house, the stock portfolio, etc.–which then supports additional borrowing / leverage.

    The payoff was not just putting off the credit cycle–the credit-asset bubble generated a massive wealth effect for those who owned the assets before the bubble multiplied their value. The top 10% who own 93% of all stocks have seen their net worth expand by tens of trillions of dollars, enabling their spending to account for roughly half of all consumption.

    The resulting extreme of wealth-income inequality has social repercussions that are not yet fully realized, but the pressure on those left behind is mounting.

    Interest rate cycles are multi-year affairs, generally running between 15 and 40 years. The current cycle–from 1981 to the present–is extremely long in tooth, reflecting the financial repression of interest rates over the past 15 years.

    Nothing lasts forever, regardless of what policy is applied. Interest rates are rising and will continue to rise.

    This means that central banks’ favorite trick to put off the credit cycle–lowering interest rates to zero–is slipping out of reach. This means that central banks will no longer be able to keep the credit-asset bubble inflated. It will deflate as interest rates rise, unpayable debt is defaulted and risk emerges in force.

    Once the credit-asset bubble deflates, the wealth effect reverses, and consumption plummets as all those who rode the bubble higher are now poorer. The net result is the economy slides into recession.

    Central states have piled up such a mountain of obligations and debt that their ability to stimulate the economy out of a much-needed cleansing of bad debt and speculative excess is limited.

    So neither central banks and central states have the capacity to push the credit cycle forward any longer. The games have all been played and now the bill is due and payable.

    3) The reversal of globalization. central banks were given the one-time luxury of lowering interest rates to zero by one dynamic: the emergence of China as the global exporter of deflation and a new “credit impulse.” As the developed economies shifted production to China, costs declined and profits soared, fueling the stock market bubble and offsetting the inflationary pressures generated by expanding credit and fiscal stimulus.

    China has now matured to the point that it no longer exports either deflation or the credit impulse. Now the inflationary pressures of expanding credit and fiscal stimulus are not being offset, so they’re finally manifesting globally. There is no replacement of China’s one-time gift of deflation and credit expansion, and so inflation and interest rates will rise.

    Throwing more money into the system will only accelerate inflation and interest rates. That game is over: checkmate.

    4) The limits of scale. The latest technological advance on the lab bench rarely scales up: vaporizing plastic waste is nice, but the cost and inherent limitations of this “advance” mean it will remain a curiosity, not a global solution that magically eliminates the 400+ million tons of plastic waste that isn’t recycled, out of the 450 million tons of plastic produced annually.

    Even when a new technology may make financial and practical sense, the time and money required to scale it up t useful levels are significant. Consider the “next big thing” in nuclear power, Small Modular Reactors. The first one is slated to come online in 2030, but such projects are typically plagued by cost and time over-runs in the early stages of development.

    If the goal is to build 100 such reactors, how log will that take, and how much capital will it consume?

    Will it take a decade? or two decades?

    The point here is we’re entering a credit cycle recession with the infrastructure we have, and improvements will be incremental, time-consuming and expensive, draining capital from consumption, in effect deepening the recession. This is the dynamic I endeavor to illuminate in the 1970s, when vast sums of capital were invested in pollution mitigation and the upgrading of the nation’s industrial base, with only modest payback in the near-term. The real benefits only accrued decades later.

    A similar upgrading of the nation’s industrial base is starting, but it will be a drain on consumption for decades to come.

    5) The downsides of centralization. Optimizing profits has relentlessly driven centralization on every scale: a handful of corporations dominate every sector, and facilities–from slaughterhouses to chemical storage–are geographically centralized, inherently increasing the risk of “normal accidents” triggering catastrophic losses. This reality was explained by Charles Perrow in his book The Next Catastrophe: Reducing Our Vulnerabilities to Natural, Industrial, and Terrorist Disasters.

    Decentralizing the economy increases costs, reducing profitability and pushing prices higher. This is the cost of resilience and redundancy. The cost of centralization is invisible until it’s too late.

    6) Climate extremes. Setting aside the debate about causal factors, that extremes of weather are increasing in number and intensity globally is placing agriculture and infrastructure at greater risk of cascading, non-linear avalanches of consequences. Centralization adds to these risks.

    Add all this up and we have a recipe for global recession in which inflation and interest rates rise, The Everything Bubble pops, possibly violently, the wealth effect vanishes into thin air, consumption plummets and job losses soar. Central banks and central states will not be able to push the credit cycle (i.e. recession) forward any longer, and if they try to do so, they will only make the decline more severe and painful.

    I often post this chart of the S-Curve to emphasize that cycles are organic and cannot be reversed or pushed forward forever. Pushing them forward has only increased the bill that must now be paid.

    Our hubristic faith in the god-like powers of technology and central banks / states creates an illusion that the credit cycle turning is the result of a “policy error,” when in fact it’s just the way systems function. We’ve created extremely fragile, centralized systems optimized for profit, and operated on the false premise that all systems are infinitely controllable given the right technology or policy.

    The result of our hubris is that the turning of systemic cycles will be more disruptive and painful than was necessary, as a direct result of our attempt to manipulate / rig the system to suit our expedient, short-term desires.

    A hard rain is going to fall, and we serve our best interests by preparing for the coming storm.

    The core skill going forward–frugality–is largely a forgotten skillset. Time to get busy while we still have time.

    *  *  *

    Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

    Subscribe to my Substack for free

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 15:10

  • "Mass Casualty Event" In Northern Israel After Hezbollah Drone Strikes IDF Soldiers
    “Mass Casualty Event” In Northern Israel After Hezbollah Drone Strikes IDF Soldiers

    According to Haaretz reporting, at least 39 Israelis were wounded (four critically and 12 moderately to severely) after a  drone attack was launched from Lebanon targeting the Golani Brigade base in Binyamina, leading to critical injuries and fatalities in the northern Haifa district.

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    According to Al Jazeera, at least three people are confirmed dead, with Channel 12 and the Israeli Army Radio adding that two drones were launched toward Israel, and while air defenses shot down one over the sea, a second drone “impacted the base.”

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    The military is investigating why no sirens were activated and why no interception occurred.

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    According to unconfirmed reports, the drone attack hit a food court where Israeli soldiers were gathered before leaving for operations in Lebanon.

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    The Israeli Army Radio, citing a military source, said that the Hezbollah drone attack “is the bloodiest since the beginning of the war.”

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    According to Drop Site News, despite widespread coverage of the attack, Israeli media outlets appear to be operating under a blackout or censorship order. Reports confirm the occurrence of the strike and the number of casualties; however, the outlets refrain from disclosing that the target was a Golani military base or that the injured were soldiers. Notably, Haaretz has also limited its reporting to press releases from rescue services and, as of this post, has not mentioned the military base.

    Following the strike, Hezbollah has warned Israeli ‘settlers’ against staying near army bases in northern Israel ‘until further notice.’ It’s doubtful whether the Israeli “settlers” will follow Hezbollah’s advice.

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    The attack comes amid heightened tensions in the region, with many expecting a retaliation by Israel against Iran in response to the recent missile launch. While the Biden admin appears to have removed the threat to Iran’s nuclear facilities, many expect that when Israel does retaliate it will target Iran’s military infrastructure.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 14:35

  • Playing With Fire: Money, Banking, & The Federal Reserve
    Playing With Fire: Money, Banking, & The Federal Reserve

    The Fed has been the source of booms, busts, and the ongoing impoverishment of Americans since its founding.

    This is why a new, critical look at the Federal Reserve is needed, and why the Mises Institute is now happy to bring you this new documentary on the Fed.

    Playing with Fire provides a look at how the Fed uses its expanding power to damage our economy, increase inequality, and to impoverish ordinary Americans. The film also looks at how much the Fed has expanded its own power since the Financial Crisis of 2008.

    Featuring interviews with Ron Paul, Tom DiLorenzo, Joseph Salerno, Mark Thornton, Jim Grant, Alex Pollock, and Jonathan Newman, Playing with Fire explains what the Fed is, where it came from, and why it is so dangerous.

    Perhaps most importantly of all, Playing with Fire shows why we need to end the Fed altogether…

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 14:00

  • Waste Of The Day: Convicted Cop Will Keep $60,000 Pension
    Waste Of The Day: Convicted Cop Will Keep $60,000 Pension

    Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

    Topline: Detective Robert Kennedy left his job after pleading guilty to wire fraud, but the retirement board in Stoneham, Mass. ruled last month that he will receive his $5,000 monthly pension anyway. 

    His pension — worth $60,000 per year — will be the 40th-highest out of 286 Stoneham retirees, based on the latest available data at OpenTheBooks.com.

    Key facts: Kennedy was convicted in federal court last year after an NBC10 Boston investigation found he had dodged $50,000 in rent payments, being continuously evicted from apartments in the Boston area. 

    Kennedy earned over $730,000 in salary between 2017 and 2022, according to OpenTheBooks. Instead of spending it on rent, he used it at expensive restaurants and what his own defense attorney called “excessive gambling.”

    One couple who rented to the cop, testified that Kennedy used a fake Social Security number to forge his credit score and move into their apartment, though he was never convicted of forgery. Kennedy refused to pay rent to the couple even after the FBI indicted him, and prosecutors later ordered him to pay $14,000. The couple told NBC10 Boston they still haven’t seen any money.

    Kennedy was sentenced to two years of probation and 90 days of home confinement.

    However, the five-member Stoneham Retirement Board ruled unanimously that his crime occurred in his personal life and was unrelated to his police duties. By law, he must now keep his pension.

    Search all federal, state and local government salaries and vendor spending with the AI search bot, Benjamin, at OpenTheBooks.com. 

    Critical quote: The board’s decision seemingly contradicts a written report from federal prosecutors submitted during Kennedy’s trial and reviewed by NBC10 Boston.  

    “The defendant’s crime was not simply a matter of financial irresponsibility, it was a premeditated gambit — one that he pulled off by using his position as a Stoneham police detective,” prosecutors argued.

    Supporting quote: “While this decision should in no way be construed as excusing his reprehensible conduct, the standard is not the conduct itself, but whether there is a legal or factual link between his crimes and his position,” attorney Michael Sacco ruled at Kennedy’s pension hearing.

    Summary: It’s a no-brainer that taxpayers should not be funding $60,000 pensions for convicted criminals.

    The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 13:25

  • National Public Data Files For Bankruptcy Months After Data Breach Involving 3 Billion People Reported
    National Public Data Files For Bankruptcy Months After Data Breach Involving 3 Billion People Reported

    Data brokerage National Public Data has filed for bankruptcy months after admitting that “hundreds of millions” of people were affected in one of the largest data breaches in history, according to The Register.

    The bankruptcy petition states: “The debtor is likely liable through the application of various state laws to notify and pay for credit monitoring for hundreds of millions of potentially impacted individuals.” 

    “As the debtor’s schedules indicate, the enterprise cannot generate sufficient revenue to address the extensive potential liabilities, not to mention defend the lawsuits and support the investigations. The debtor’s insurance has declined coverage,” it continues. 

    The Register reported that the organization faces over a dozen class-action lawsuits due to data loss and potential regulatory challenges from the FTC and more than 20 U.S. states. However, plaintiffs may struggle to collect damages, as Jerico has limited physical assets.

    Owner Salvatore Verini, Jr. ran the business from his home office with two $200 HP desktops, a $100 ThinkPad, and five Dell servers worth about $2,000. The company has $33,105 in a New York account, despite generating $1.15M last year, with total assets estimated between $25,000 and $75,000, the report says. 

    Recall back in August we wrote about the data theft, calling it one of the “biggest data breaches ever”. 

    Then, a lawsuit alleged 2.9 billion people had confidential data exposed and stolen, according to a report from Mashable.The worst part is that those impacted by this cyberattack may be unaware of their involvement since National Public Data allegedly collects data from non-public sources without consent.

    The breach exposed information on nearly 3 billion people, including full names, addresses, Social Security numbers, and personal details of both living and deceased relatives.The Mashable report said the timing of the breach was unclear.

    Plaintiff Christopher Hofmann learned of it in July when an identity theft protection service alerted him that his data had been leaked on the dark web. The hackers posted the “National Public Data” database on a dark web forum in April, seeking $3.5 million from a buyer.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 12:50

  • You Know It's Bad For Kamala When…
    You Know It’s Bad For Kamala When…

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    Saturday Night Live has waited and given Kamala Harris a chance. Harris has failed miserably and last night the gloves came off.

    The show absolutely savaged her, based off recent appearances, particularly the disastrous 60 Minutes interview.

    Just look at this.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    It wasn’t only Kamala, it was Mrs Harris, Walz, Biden and the rest of the Democrats.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    It was ruthless.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    They made Kamala a wine guzzling disaster.

    And Walz a weird klutz who talks too much.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The trouble for their campaign is that this is practically a documentary at this point.

    No wonder Democrat strategists and their leftist mouthpieces are panicking.

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 10/13/2024 – 12:15

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