Today’s News 15th April 2023

• China is Preparing For War; Is The US Ready?
  China is Preparing For War; Is The US Ready?

  Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The ammunition is running low, casualties are immense, medicine and other critical supplies have not come for weeks, and a nuclear attack on the American homeland is imminent.

  

  It is a dramatic scene, more closely resembling a Hollywood drama than any war that the United States has actually fought in the last half-century. It is nevertheless what many expect a war between the United States and communist China could look like this decade.

  Both the United States and China are investing record-breaking sums in building up their military capabilities. Leadership on both sides increasingly appears to consider such a conflict as inevitable, despite rhetoric to the contrary.

  The cause for that mutual enmity is the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) claim that democratic Taiwan belongs to China, and CCP leader Xi Jinping’s desire to force that unification within a few years’ time.

  Xi has ordered the regime’s military wing to prepare for war, and to be ready to launch an invasion of Taiwan by 2027.

  Preparing for what would be history’s most ambitious amphibious assault is not the same as actually launching it. But, should the worst occur, the Biden administration or its successor will have to decide either to join the fray, or to let Taiwan stand on its own and fight for its freedom.

  Before U.S. leadership decides on that question, however, it must answer another, more foundational one: Can the United States win a war with China?

  

  ‘The Window of Maximum Danger’

  Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wisc.) is more invested in the new cold war between the United States and China than most.

  Tasked with leading Congress’ new House Select Committee on Strategic Competition with the CCP, he is one of the few movers and shakers in the legislative branch directly engaged in developing an action plan to defend the American people, its economy, and values from CCP aggression.

  For him, Russia’s ongoing conquest of Ukraine, and the United States’ failure to deter it, contain all the lessons necessary to prepare for what comes next in Taiwan.

  “If we don’t learn the right lessons from the failure of deterrence in Ukraine, authoritarian aggression and the CCP’s malign influence will spread to the Indo-Pacific, and our New Cold War with the Chinese Communist Party could quickly become hot,” Gallagher told The Epoch Times.

  “To prevent this, we have to act with a sense of urgency and do everything we can to deter a CCP invasion of Taiwan.”

  

  That plan is much the same as it has been since 1979, when the United States passed the Taiwan Relations Act and agreed to provide the island with the arms necessary to maintain its self-defense.

  The strategic landscape 44 years ago was something altogether different, however, and the number of weapons and systems that Taiwan now requires to hold the CCP at threat are immense.

  The way Gallagher sees it, neither Taiwan nor the United States is prepared for the possibility of war with China.

  Speaking back in November of 2021, Gallagher warned that, “if we went to war in the Taiwan Strait tomorrow, we’d probably lose.”

  Gallagher is careful now to avoid similar doomspeak but, when asked if he still agreed with that assessment, his optimism for the United States’ performance in a war with China is palpably limited.

  “If the Chinese Communist Party invaded Taiwan today, we would not be well positioned to defend our friend, our interests, or American values in the Indo-Pacific,” Gallagher says.

  The United States must choose, he believes, to arm Taiwan to the teeth now or come to Taiwan’s aid at a much greater cost later.

  Either way, the choices the United States makes now, he says, will largely determine the conditions of victory and defeat at a later date. To that end, Congress must unite to arm Taiwan and systematically counter the CCP’s malign influence at every opportunity.

  “We are in the window of maximum danger,” Gallagher says, “and if we are going to ensure that it’s the U.S.—not the CCP—writing the rules of the 21st century, we need to unite in overwhelming bipartisan fashion to combat CCP aggression.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 23:40

• "We've Been Warned:" El Nino Watch Initiated As Ag-Industry In Crosshairs
  “We’ve Been Warned:” El Nino Watch Initiated As Ag-Industry In Crosshairs

  This week, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released an El Niño Watch, indicating the increasing likelihood of the weather-altering phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean. If El Niño does form, it could result in heavy rainfall and heatwaves in specific regions across the globe, potentially causing disruptions in the agricultural industry.

  A watch is issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño within the next six months. The Climate Prediction Center said probabilities have risen over the last month from 61% to 74% of an El Niño emerging between August and October. 

  Time to watch for El Nino! 👀 NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued an El Nino watch in today’s monthly update.

  See more at: https://t.co/znXWQK8Rzg pic.twitter.com/nbfHeUq059

  — National Weather Service (@NWS) April 13, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  El Niño refers to a climate pattern that arises when the Pacific Ocean’s equatorial region experiences warming, which then reacts with the atmosphere to cause weather shifts worldwide. 

  

  On the commodity front, Bloomberg analyst Jake Lloyd-Smith said El Niño might impact harvests in the second half of the year: 

  So the parade of warnings that a disruptive El Nino pattern may be on the way is critical for commodities as it carries the potential to roil palm oil, sugar, and cocoa to list just a few.

  The latest to wade are the folk at the US government, who’ve issued an El Nino watch. The pattern forms when the equatorial Pacific warms and reacts with the atmosphere to disrupt weather the world over. In this neighborhood, it can crimp rainfall, drying out crops and possibly cutting harvests. In India and New Zealand, forecasters have also signaled their concern recently. That follows similar messages from Australia, Peru, and the Philippines. The pack, it seems, is well and truly on the move.

  There’s a two-step process at work here. First, while the probability of an El Nino setting in has been increasing, it’s not a certainty yet. And second, even if one does form, the events vary tremendously in their intensity. The one that sticks in my mind is the appalling event of 1997-98 that played out as a vicious backdrop during the Asian Financial Crisis. Right now, we’ve been warned.

  El Niño’s effect on crop yields could further strain the already stressed global food supply chain, leading to an increase in prices and making it harder for central bankers to cool inflation. As readers know, elevated food prices and the soaring cost of living in emerging market nations can ignite social unrest, creating a perfect storm of adverse economic and political consequences. 

  Is this all setting the stage for a major food crisis this year? 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 23:20

• China's 'M&A King' Bao Fan Vanished, Rocking Country’s Financial Sector
  China’s ‘M&A King’ Bao Fan Vanished, Rocking Country’s Financial Sector

  Authored by Shawn Lin and Olivia Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  China’s “M&A King” Bao Fan has been missing for over 50 days, sending shockwaves throughout the country’s financial and political circles.

  

  On April 3, China Renaissance Group, the company Bao founded, announced a trading halt, suspending trading from 9:00 am that day. The release of its annual performance report for 2022 has also been deferred as the auditors cannot issue an audit report in Bao’s absence.

  Bao is the company’s chairman, executive director, chief executive officer, and controlling shareholder.

  On Feb. 16, the company’s board of directors announced that they had been unable to contact Bao, and on Feb. 26, they revealed that he was “cooperating” with authorities’ investigations.

  If we take Feb. 16 as the starting date, Bao has been missing for over 50 days.

  Impressive Resume

  Bao, born in 1970, founded China Renaissance Group in 2005 at the age of 35.

  Prior to that, he served as the chief strategy officer of China-based IT services and software company Asiainfo Group. He also worked at international financial companies such as Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse, accumulating seven years of investment banking experience on Wall Street.

  Bao’s influence in the Chinese financial industry is enormous.

  In 2015, China Renaissance Group facilitated four major mergers and acquisitions in China’s Internet industry: the merger of ride-hailing giants Didi and Kuaidi, the merger of classifieds site 58.com and Ganji.com, the merger of lifestyle e-commerce platform Meituan and online review site Dianping, and the merger of online travel agencies Ctrip and Qunar.

  Since then, Bao has been involved in almost all major financing, mergers and acquisitions, and IPO deals in China’s internet industry.

  According to IT Juzi, a Chinese business information service provider, China Renaissance Group has brokered 439 public transactions with 727 different investors from 2014 to 2021, including numerous big-name investors. His reputation as the “King of M&A” in China is well-deserved.

  Bank of China Chairman Implicated

  The day after Bao went missing, Liu Liange, chairman, executive director, and Chinese Communist Party (CPP) boss at the Bank of China, was removed from his positions.

  One month later, the Bank of China claimed that Liu had “voluntarily” resigned. On March 31, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection announced that Liu was under investigation for serious law violations.

  Liu had worked in China’s banking system since the 1990s, holding key positions, including 11 years at the China Exim Bank and later serving as the Party boss and chairman of the Bank of China.

  

  As reported by Beijing Caixin, sources close to the Bank of China said that Liu’s case is likely connected to the recent investigation into Bao’s case.

  Before Liu’s downfall, several high-ranking executives at the Bank of China were taken away for investigation between July and September 2022.

  Early Repayment Clause

  Although China Renaissance Group has stated that its business and operations are currently running as usual, it has been noted that the company has signed loan agreements with specific clauses.

  In May 2021, China Renaissance Group announced that it had obtained its first syndicated loan since going public. The loan, totaling $300 million over a three-year period, was led by the Bank of Communications (Hong Kong) and involved other banks such as Citibank (Hong Kong), China Citic Bank International, and Bank of China (Macau).

  The financing agreement stipulates that if Bao is no longer the largest shareholder of China Renaissance Group or no longer serves as board chairman, the main lenders can cancel their commitments and demand immediate mandatory repayment of all outstanding loans under the financing.

  The market is concerned that if Bao cannot perform his duties for an extended period, creditors may lose confidence in China Renaissance Group, and the aforementioned $300 million loan may be subject to early repayment.

  China Renaissance Group has not responded to the request of The Epoch Times for comment by press time.

  Xi Targets Financial Sector

  Chinese leader Xi Jinping has been disciplining the financial sector in China, with dozens of personnel changes seen in bank executive positions this year. According to the CCP’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, in the first three months of 2023, at least ten high-level executives in China’s financial sector have been investigated.

  

  One week after Bao went missing, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection published an article on Feb. 23 mentioning “finance” 16 times.

  The article claimed that the commission aimed to eliminate “political risks,” break the “financial elite”  and “Westernization” mindsets, rectify the industry’s “unspoken rules,” eliminate the mentality of “law does not punish the masses” and investigate issues such as “shadow shareholders” and the “revolving door.”

  Political commentator Ji Lin, who resides in Japan, told The Epoch Times on April 10 that as China’s economy continues to decline and the fiscal deficit becomes severe, debt crises may erupt at any time. Therefore, Xi is taking action in the financial system, attempting to ease the situation.

  Ji said that China’s financial sector is controlled by influential families, and through factional purges, Xi can replace key positions with his trusted individuals.

  Ji also said that China’s capital circle is full of unspoken rules involving collusion between officials and businessmen, where capital magnates receive illegal benefits and protection from officials and, in turn, act as officials’ hidden henchmen who help with reaping profit and money laundering.

  “With Bao Fan’s qualifications, he is likely such a henchman figure. Thus, if Bao is being investigated, many individuals associated with him may also fall,” Ji said.

  Ellen Wan contributed to this report.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 23:00

• Fewer Coal Power Plants Close In 2022 Than In Recent Years
  Fewer Coal Power Plants Close In 2022 Than In Recent Years

  Data from Ember’s fourth annual Global Electricity Review reveals that electricity generation from coal increased by 1.1 percent last year, which is in line with the average rate of growth in the last decade.

  As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, Ember found that while the rate of new coal power plants opening did not increase, 2022 saw fewer coal power plants close than in any year since 2015. Analysts say this was due to countries seeking to hold onto back-up capacity.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Electricity data was analyzed from 78 countries, representing 93 percent of global electricity demand and includes estimated changes for the missing data.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 22:40

• Doug Casey On Why The US Is Headed Into Its 'Fourth Turning'
  Doug Casey On Why The US Is Headed Into Its ‘Fourth Turning’

  Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

  International Man: The economic, political, social, and cultural situation seems to have become increasingly volatile in the United States and more broadly in the West. Is this a unique situation or part of a recurring historical cycle?

  Authors William Strauss and Neil Howe introduced a popular theory in their book, The Fourth Turning, outlining the recurring generational cycles that have occurred throughout American history.

  What are your thoughts?

  

  Doug Casey: I read Strauss and Howe’s first book, Generations, when it came out back in 1992. I thought it was brilliant.

  Let me start off by recommending both Generations and The Fourth Turning to everybody. Both books offer quite a scholarly, readable, and prescient view of the cyclicality of history. And offer a very plausible forecast for the 2020s.

  History’s best seen as cyclical, rather than a straight-line progress to some preordained end the way both the Marxists and the Abrahamic religions see it. But then, Ecclesiastes has its famous quote that there’s nothing new under the sun.

  Plato in the Republic talks about how the younger generation—and we’re talking fourth century BC—can’t stand up to the moral values of their forefathers.

  Older people have always thought that the younger generation wouldn’t quite measure up. In recent American history, you’ll recall, the younger generation were the beatniks in the ’50s, the hippies in the ’60s, and the yuppies in the ’80s—so it’s a passing parade. Older people have a tendency to think the world is going downhill. Nothing new there. But there’s always a rebirth.

  Niccolò Machiavelli, in his Florentine Histories, said:

  Virtue gives birth to tranquility, tranquility to leisure, leisure to disorder, disorder to ruin… and similarly from ruin, order is born, from order virtue, from virtue, glory and good fortune.

  The bottom line is that societies arise from poverty through moral strength—and that brings them prosperity. But that prosperity brings on arrogance, and the arrogance brings on laziness, which brings on weakness and moral decline. Then they’re reduced to a condition of slavery and poverty again. Change is the only constant—except in human nature.

  As I look at the United States, it seems to me the peak of American culture was the time just before Teddy Roosevelt came into office. Teddy is certainly among the top five worst presidents. And there’s plenty of competition for that title.

  He was the first real “progressive” president; he wanted the government actively involved in all areas of life.

  Now, that’s not to say that Teddy Roosevelt wouldn’t have been a really great drinking pal, a wonderful guy to go camping with, a fun guy to have an intellectual conversation with. He had a lot of admirable personal values. But he was a nationalist, a statist, and a warmonger. That’s why I say he was a horrible president.

  The long-term trend of US overseas imperialism started with the Spanish–American War and the building of an overseas American empire in Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Philippines, and Hawaii—followed by World War I.

  The US has gone from being noninterventionist to now having many hundreds of bases around the world and trying to give orders to every other country in the world. That kind of arrogance always ends badly.

  As a civilization—a culture—the US has been on an accelerating path downhill for about 120 years now. That’s true even while science and technology have greatly increased the general standard of living. It’s a mistake to conflate a higher standard of living with higher moral values—that’s what Machiavelli was talking about.

  I question whether that trend will change—at least until we have a genuine crisis. Why not? Because a lot of the way a society acts comes from the way kids are brought up—the values that are inculcated in them when they’re young. And increasingly, kids are taught what I would call the wrong values.

  Saint Ignatius said this in the 17th century, and Lenin repeated it in the 20th century. They both said that if you indoctrinate someone in his youth, chances are you’ve directed his worldview for the rest of his life.

  Cultural Marxists are now totally in control of the US educational system, and have been for a couple of generations. That’s absolutely the case in the colleges and universities but also in the high schools and even in the grade schools. Kids are being taught to be socialists, ecowarriors, social justice warriors, and “woke” from an early age. It’s really serious.

  And it’s not a cyclical phenomenon. This is one of the few areas in which I take some issue with The Fourth Turning. The trend towards collectivism and statism seems to be a secular long-term trend that’s still accelerating.

  There are a few bright spots. Libertarians, for instance, are somewhat more prominent than in the past. But the fact that libertarians believe in personal freedom, in the face of a societal trend in the opposite direction, makes me tend to believe they’re actually genetic mutants. They’re just a small percentage of the population, whose nature has resisted the prevailing nurture.

  I say that, only partially because of my own experience. I grew up in what could—jokingly—be called a cannibalistic death cult and was imbued with all kinds of strange notions by nuns and priests at the schools that I went to. I rejected them intuitively and intellectually, but they still stick to you like tar. It can take years to wash off the effects of early indoctrination.

  I’m more of a maverick than most people are, however. Most just continue to believe what they’re taught as kids, reflexively and automatically—right or wrong. So I don’t think there’s really much hope of a serious change in the direction of American culture. At least until a major crisis—and the outcome of that is in doubt.

  International Man: OK. That’s the long-term trend. Where are we in the generational cycle now? Are we moving into the fourth turning and headed for a crisis?

  Doug Casey: Strauss and Howe take a cyclical point of view over the course of roughly 80 years, four generations.

  To very briefly summarize their theory, there are four “turnings”: a “high,” an “awakening,” an “unraveling,” and a “crisis.”

  Over the last couple of decades, we’ve been undergoing the unraveling, where old values fall apart. Next, Strauss and Howe predicted a crisis, starting about 2015, which tests the very existence of the society. Or at least the way it’s run.

  They go beyond seeing generations as being simply “liberal” or “conservative.” According to Strauss and Howe, there are four generational archetypes that last over a cycle of 80 years—20 years per generation—corresponding to the “turnings.”

  Without going into all the details, they see the baby boomers as being a “Prophet” Generation. The authors are ideologically oriented—fire and brimstone types—very much like Bernie Sanders on the left and Donald Trump on the right. Kind of biblically apocalyptic by nature.

  They were quite correct in defining the Generation X types as the so-called “Nomad” Generation. These are kids who learned to take care of themselves—and are not so ideological in the way they think.

  The Millennials are who are relevant at the moment. They correspond, in Strauss and Howe’s view, to the World War II generation. They’d be the frontline soldiers in the coming crisis and conflicts.

  International Man: What happens after a crisis? Is there a positive way forward?

  Doug Casey: Historically, the answer is, “Almost never”—in the short run. The best recent example is the French Revolution. It got worse with Robespierre—a Bernie Sanders of the era—followed by Napoleon. Or take the case of the Russian revolution. As necessary as it was to get rid of Nicholas II, it got worse with Lenin, and then it got even worse with Stalin. But even in those cases, France and Russia recovered.

  If it all comes unglued in the US over the next decade, those two revolutions could be templates. Look at the way leading Democrats think, and listen to what they’re saying. They’re echoing Robespierre and Lenin.

  The Republicans aren’t much better, because although they sometimes talk the talk of peace and personal freedom, they almost never walk the walk. The two major US parties—and people in the Red counties and the Blue counties—seem to really hate each other.

  It’s quite ugly sociologically. There are irreconcilable differences. They’re exacerbated by the fact we’re headed for a financial blow up. There’s no doubt about that.

  Some years ago, there was a poll taken among Generation X types. It turned out that more of them believed that space aliens were going to invade than that they were ever going to collect Social Security. People have very little faith in “the system” anymore, the society, or the government.

  If we go back to the beginning of the 20th century, the country really wasn’t very political at all. People worried about their own lives, their own families, and their own local communities. Americans shared a common culture, beliefs, and values—that’s no longer true. Now the country has become very politicized—everybody has a loud voice and they use votes as weapons against their neighbors. It’s become a nation of nasty busybodies.

  That makes me think the next upset will be something like a revolution. It’s likely to be really ugly, because we’re looking, simultaneously, at an economic catastrophe, political chaos, and a social and demographic upset—and probably a military situation as well. Government often sees war as a way to unite the country.

  So, what’s going to happen?

  I’ll hazard a guess that 50 years from now, the United States and, for that matter, most countries are not going to exist in anything like their present form. The best solution is a peaceful break up into smaller political subdivisions. As opposed to a civil war—which is a contest between one or more groups for the control of a central government.

  *  *  *

  The economic trajectory is troubling. Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can practically do to change the course of these trends in motion. The best you can and should do is to stay informed so that you can protect yourself in the best way possible, and even profit from the situation. That’s precisely why bestselling author Doug Casey just released Surviving and Thriving During an Economic Collapse an urgent new PDF report. It explains what could come next and what you can do about it so you don’t become a victim. Click here to download it now.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 22:20

• Advocacy Groups Call On Meta To Ban Minors For 'Dangerous' Metaverse
  Advocacy Groups Call On Meta To Ban Minors For ‘Dangerous’ Metaverse

  A letter was signed by dozens of advocacy groups and children’s safety experts asking Meta Platforms Inc. to halt all plans to allow minors into its new virtual reality world. 

  Airplay, the Center for Countering Digital Hate, and Common Sense Media, among others, were some of the groups that signed the letter. It was sent to Meta Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg on Friday, arguing that minors will face harassment and privacy violations on the virtual reality app, according to Bloomberg. 

  “Meta must wait for more peer-reviewed research on the potential risks of the metaverse to be certain that children and teens would be safe,” wrote the groups.

  Recall we were the first to point out “Dark Side Of Metaverse Exposed: Why Your Kids Need To Stay Away From VRChat” at the start of 2022. We showed screenshots from one YouTuber who revealed the massive problem in the metaverse: child exploitation and sexualization. 

  

  One month after our report, BBC News published a similar story. They found examples of child grooming, sexual material, racism, and rape threats. 

  Only weeks after our initial report, Oculus released a statement indicating the addition of a “personal boundary” (think of a personal bubble) that will protect users from being virtually assaulted by others.

  

  Back to the latter, which points to a report last month from the Center for Countering Digital Hate that found users under 18 are already facing harassment from adults on the app. Go figure… This is something we laid out over a year ago. 

  Researchers with the center witnessed 19 episodes of abuse directed at minors by adults, including sexual harassment, during 100 visits to the most popular worlds within Horizon Universe. –Bloomberg 

  Meta had announced plans to make Horizon Worlds available to users between the ages of 13 and 17 in February. While the platform was opened to users 18 years and above in 2021, the company has faced difficulties retaining users.

  A spokesperson for Meta said: 

  “Before we make Horizon Worlds available to teens, we will have additional protections and tools in place to help provide age-appropriate experiences for them.

  “Quest headsets are for people 13+ and we encourage parents and caretakers to use our parental supervision tools, including managing access to apps, to help ensure safe experiences.”

  The minimum age for the metaverse app is now 18. The letter continued, “Should Meta throw open the doors of these worlds to minors rather than pause to protect them, you would, yet again, demonstrate your company to be untrustworthy when it comes to safeguarding young people’s best interests.” 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 22:00

• California's Last Nuclear Power Plant Diablo Faces Closure Against Lawsuit
  California’s Last Nuclear Power Plant Diablo Faces Closure Against Lawsuit

  Authored by Elizabeth Dowell via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

  An environmental group on Tuesday sued to block Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) from seeking to extend the federal operating licenses for California’s last active nuclear power plant.

  

  A complaint filed in the San Francisco Superior Court by advocacy group “Friends of the Earth” asks the court to prohibit the utility from sidestepping its 2016 agreement with environmentalists and plant workers to close the twin-domed Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant by 2025.

  In a Twitter post, the environmental group said, “We’re taking PG&E to court to make sure California’s last remaining nuclear plant is retired We won’t stop until the aging, destructive Canyon is closed for good!”

  

  Hallie Templeton, legal director for Friends of the Earth, called out PG&E for allegedly backing out of their agreement.

  “Contracts simply don’t vanish into thin air,” Templeton said in a statement. “Yet ever since California passed legislation supporting Diablo Canyon’s extension, PG&E has been acting as if our contract has disappeared. Setting aside the agreement to retire Diablo, there are myriad legal prerequisites for extending operations of a nuclear power plant, including federal decisions that states cannot dictate.

  “We hope our litigation can push PG&E to reconsider its potential breach and uphold its obligations, including preparing for the agreed-upon retirement.”

  The Diablo power plant runs along the Pacific Coast and has been operating since 1985.

  California is the birthplace of the modern environmental movement that, for decades, has had a fraught relationship with nuclear power, which doesn’t produce carbon pollution like fossil fuels but leaves behind waste that can remain radioactive for centuries, requiring special waste treatment.

  Nuclear Reactor Needed to Maintain Reliable Power

  The California legislature passed SB846 last year, which was signed by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newson, in an effort to extend the power plant’s operations for another five years, according to the bill.

  In March, Newson toured the Diablo Canyon Power Plant after it was announced that the plant may continue operating after its expiration date.

  “As we experienced during the record heat wave last September, climate change-driven extreme events are causing unprecedented stress on our power grid—the Diablo Canyon Power Plant is important to support energy reliability as we accelerate progress towards achieving our clean energy and climate goals. I look forward to our continued work with the Biden-Harris Administration and the Legislature to build a reliable and resilient clean electric system,” Newson said in a statement.

  The California Energy Commission ruled earlier this year that continuing Diablo’s operations past 2025 is needed to maintain reliable electricity supply throughout the state.

  Siva Gunda, the Energy Commission’s vice chair, said that Diablo is an important part of California’s energy options.

  “As California confronts a rapidly changing climate, extraordinary heat events and record energy demand are becoming increasingly ordinary. The state needs to keep all options on the table to protect public health and safety,” Gunda said in a statement to LA Times. “This includes maintaining Diablo Canyon’s operations.”

  In 2016, then Gov. Jerry Brown agreed to a proposal that would shut Diablo down by its original deadline, along with California utility regulators and state Legislatures, according to the document. This could pose a potential issue during the current lawsuit against PG&E.

  According to the PG&E website, “Diablo Canyon has continued to safely produce clean and reliable energy without greenhouse gases (GHG), avoiding 6 to 7 million tons per year of GHGs that would be emitted by conventional generation resources,” the site states.

  PG&E said in a statement it had not yet seen the lawsuit but that, as a regulated utility, will follow state policy.

  The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 21:40

• Sex Toys, Cotton Candy, Red Piano: Influencers Write Off Ridiculous Items
  Sex Toys, Cotton Candy, Red Piano: Influencers Write Off Ridiculous Items

  Becoming a successful social media influencer is one of the biggest dreams among the younger generation. As millions of influencers create content across various social media platforms, an inevitable challenge arises: explaining their expenses to both tax preparers and the Internal Revenue Service.

  According to a recent Adobe Inc. report, 14 million people in the US generate income by posting content on social media. Many of these folks are purchasing some of the most outrageous items for content creation. 

  WSJ spoke with influencer Ali Spagnola, who has been compiling receipts for thousands of dollars worth of supplies, including 15,000 Lego pieces, 40 pounds of cotton candy sugar, and a red baby grand piano. 

  

  Spagnola explained to her tax prepare that these purchases relate directly to creating her social media content. 

  “I need an accountant that understands outrageous,” she said, who is on her third accountant because the other two couldn’t understand her social media influencer business. 

  Another influencer is Rachael Johnson, who tours the country in an RV with her husband and two dogs. They create videos about their cross-country adventures and receive monthly payments from Facebook. She has to find a way to explain how pet costumes used in one of her videos relate to her business as an influencer. 

  Influencers earn income through non-traditional means, including selling merchandise, charging subscription fees, hosting advertisements, and until recently, receiving regular payments from social media companies for posts (some social media companies have reduced spending on influencers as ad revenue wanes). 

  Sima Gandhi, chief executive and co-founder of San Francisco-based Creative Juice, said influencers are at a significant disadvantage when filing tax returns because their profession is new and the tax code was primarily written before social media platforms existed.  

  Gandhi used to work at the US Treasury Department. He said many influencers have yet to understand they can deduct even basic expenses, including the cost of setting up a company and equipment such as computers, selfie sticks, cameras, and microphones. “These things should be reasonable and necessary in the eyes of the IRS,” she added.

  Another influencer, YouTube creator Thomas Jackson, once live-streamed himself throwing dildos at a building. He spent $864 worth on sex toys that he later deducted. 

  “Nobody asked me any questions about it,” Jackson said.

  YouTube and TikTok creator Tommy King generates income via live-streaming video games from his bedroom. He’s a full-time creator, and his tax preparer was shocked when he handed over thousands of dollars of receipts detailing ridiculous outfits he bought for his avatar in the game “Fortnite.” The accountant needed clarification about how people paid the influencer to perform live dances. 

  King completed his own taxes last year and was able to deduct $3,000 worth of computer parts and a $500 gaming chair. For 2022 taxes, he plans to write off even more computer gear. 

  And imagine what these creators are getting away with because the tax system was largely written before social media platforms. For all those creators, remember the easiest way the IRS can audit is to just watch the videos online as evidence. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 21:20

• USD: The King Is Dead – Long Live The King
  USD: The King Is Dead – Long Live The King

  Authored by Robert Burrows via BondVigilantes.com,

  Is the dollar losing its status as the King of currencies? Dollar hegemony refers to the dominance of the United States dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency, which has been in place since the end of World War II. The dollar has been the world’s reserve currency for decades, meaning that countries around the world hold large quantities of U.S. dollars to facilitate international trade and finance.

  The global dominance of the U.S. dollar has given the United States enormous economic and political power. The U.S. has been able to print money and borrow at low-interest rates because other countries have been willing to hold U.S. dollars in their reserves. This has enabled the U.S. to finance its large trade deficits and military spending, which have been central to its global power.

  However, the dollar’s hegemony now faces increasing challenges, and its importance is waning. The rise of China and the European Union has led to the growing use of alternative currencies, which has weakened the dollar’s global dominance.

  

  Declining Global Trade Dominance

  The U.S. has seen its share of global trade decline over the past few decades. While the U.S. economy is still the world’s largest, other countries, particularly China, are quickly catching up. As a result, the dollar is becoming less important in international trade.

  For example, China is now the largest trading partner of many countries worldwide. Many of those countries are increasingly conducting trade in their own currencies rather than using the U.S. dollar. The European Union is also a significant trading bloc, with the euro now a major international currency.

  • China-Russia bilateral trade in 2022 increased 34% to $190b (1.3 trillion yuan), a new record high.

  • China-Brazil bilateral trade hit a record $150b in 2022, a new record high

  • China-India bilateral trade hit a record $135b in 2022, a new record high

  • The Chinese yuan (CNY) is now the fifth most traded currency after USD, EUR, JPY and GBP.

  

  Source: Bank of International Settlements.

  Reduced Confidence in the U.S. Economy

  Another factor contributing to the decline of the dollar’s hegemony is the reduced confidence in the U.S. economy. The 2008 financial crisis and subsequent recession significantly impacted the global economy, and many countries lost confidence in the U.S. financial system. This has led to a shift towards alternative currencies, such as the euro and the Chinese yuan, as investors seek more stable and diversified assets.

  Once again, debt ceiling concerns are coming into focus. As always, in the U.S., the opposition party will attempt to extract concessions from the other party, pushing negotiations to the limits. The two political parties are increasingly intransigent, and the possibility of a miscalculation is not unthinkable.

  U.S. Sanctions and Geopolitical Tensions

  Finally, U.S. sanctions have also contributed to the decline of the dollar’s hegemony. The U.S. has used its position as the world’s primary reserve currency to impose economic sanctions on countries that it disagrees with, such as Iran and Russia. This has led to those countries seeking alternatives to the U.S. dollar and conducting trade in other currencies.

  Economic considerations

  Dollar strength feeds inflation pressures abroad. When a country’s currency weakens against the dollar, the price of imports increase, resulting in inflationary pressures. With commodities like oil, gas, metals and food priced in dollars, any dollar strength will increase costs. This is particularly problematic for emerging markets as these costs comprise a large part of consumption.

  The Rise of Digital Currencies

  The rise of digital currencies, such as Bitcoin, also challenges the dollar’s hegemony. These currencies are in theory, decentralized and operate independently of any government or financial institution, making them an attractive alternative to traditional currencies.

  For example, Bitcoin has become a popular way to conduct international transactions, particularly in countries with high inflation rates or weak currencies. While digital currencies are still a relatively small part of the global financial system, their rise represents a significant challenge to the dominance of the U.S. dollar. Countries the world over are attempting to suppress this alternative system

  Examples of transactions outside of the dollar are on the up. Most recently, France completed its first yuan transaction for Liquefied natural gas (LNG), and Brazil has announced an agreement to trade directly with China.

  Conclusion

  In conclusion, the dominance of the U.S. dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency is waning. While the dollar is still the most widely used currency for international trade and finance, alternative currencies such as the euro and the Chinese yuan are becoming more important. In addition, the rise of digital currencies and geopolitical tensions are also contributing to the decline of the dollar’s hegemony. While the dollar is likely to remain an important global currency for the foreseeable future, its days as the KING of currencies is numbered.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 21:00

• Where It's Hardest To Afford A Home
  Where It’s Hardest To Afford A Home

  Big cities like Hong Kong or Los Angeles are well-known for their expensive real estate markets.

  But, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes, there are also a lot of housing markets you wouldn’t necessarily expect among the least affordable – that includes several in Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

  According to the 2023 International Housing Affordability Survey by Demographia, three out of the 10 least affordable housing markets are in Australia and New Zealand, two are in Canada and four more are located in the United States.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  The least affordable housing market is Hong Kong.

  Here, the median house or apartment price is almost 19 times as high as the median annual gross household income.

  After Hong Kong, New Zealand and Australia were the least affordable countries overall in the study which looked at the U.S., Canada, the UK, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and Ireland.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 20:40

• Peak EV: Electric Vehicles Will Fade As Their True Costs Become Clear
  Peak EV: Electric Vehicles Will Fade As Their True Costs Become Clear

  Authored by Doug French via The Mises Institute,

  “On Wednesday, the Environmental Protection Agency plans to announce tough new tailpipe emission standards designed to effectively force the auto industry to phase out the sale of gas-powered cars,” reports The Verge, with the provocative headline “The End Is Nigh for Gas-Powered Cars.”

  

  Environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) is the newest religion, and we all know who the practitioners are. Electric vehicle (EV) owners sing “Hallelujah” when they pull out of their garages. The investor-class ESG evangelists believe the new belief is in its beginnings. Whatever the Biden EPA does, investor Harris Kupperman thinks it’s likely just the Church of What’s Happening Now.

  Kupperman, referred to as Kuppy by Real Vision’s Maggie Lake, told her, “Well, I think we’re nearing peak ESG, which is probably a good thing, honestly.” He explained,

  And it’s like religions kind of come, they peak, they die out. No one practices Roman religions anymore. I can name three of the gods and I’m a Roman history major.

  These things, they peak, they crest, and this little religion of ESG, it’s been around for a while. It peaked. And now there’ll be some die hard adherence, but I think the vast majority of investors want to make money. And it’s great if they’re doing something that has a social good, but most of them just want to save for their retirement.

  As to all those fancy Teslas silently cutting you off in traffic, their drivers teeming with superiority, thinking they are saving the planet, Kuppy sees them going the way of T. rex.

  “No. I think EV is going to be something you’re going to go to a museum with my kids and be like, wow, that was an evolutionary dead end and we always [waste] trillions of dollars on this. No, I think that there’s no future to EV.”

  “Really, why?” an aghast Lake wondered.

  Next, Kuppy comes with the hard facts amateur environmentalists and government enforcers don’t consider.

  Because it [the EV] destroys energy. You have this concept called EROI, which is the return on energy you put in. An EV, you put more energy in than you get out. And so as a result, it’s just like a thermodynamic rule—it won’t work unless you subsidize it.

  What’s the reason for EVs? It’s because it supposedly produces less carbon. But through the full life cycle of owning an EV, because so much carbon has to go into the stupid thing, it doesn’t use less carbon. You’re better off having a gas guzzler.

  Yikes. Maybe EV owners are not as heroic as they believe.

  Kupperman says that without government subsidies, consumers will stick to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. In fact, even with subsidies, most people, like Kupperman, will buy ICE vehicles. But there will always be snobs.

  [If] you kind of want to be a snob and say you’ve got an EV, then be a snob. It’s a nice thing to have if you want to show off that you have a thing. For me, I have a truck. Doesn’t bother me at all and I’m proud of my truck.

  However, “if carbon is the thing you’re caring about, you’re caring about the total cost of using the car or the energy in versus energy out. Almost any component you look at, you’re better off just having an internal combustion engine. And those engines have actually gotten very efficient over the last couple of years.”

  Kupperman points out that as these EVs age, owners will see

  what happens to battery degradation with lithium ion batteries, and the fact that the lithium ion battery is such a large component of the total cost of a car, and when you’re at year five or six [and] have to replace 30% to 40% of your car’s initial cost, people are going to realize the lifetime cost of owning an EV is astronomically high.

  Thus, in Kuppy’s view adoption will decline and EV owners will have second thoughts and realize their EVs are terrible vehicles.

  As far as ESG goes, it is just a tax on humanity, according to Kupperman. “And that’s a real detriment to 6 billion people that want a better standard of living if they can’t afford the things to pull them up out of poverty, effectively.”

  Kupperman believes continued demand for energy is unstoppable and the government will only make matters worse.

  They’ll try all sorts of stupid things. Governments historically do really dumb things that make problems worse. That’s the history of governments. I assume they’ll try all sorts of things that’ll fail. And all that it will do will be to destroy the supply response because of the government’s interfering in your ability to do your business.

  When Lake asked about potential government interference, Kupperman replied,

  Yeah, they’re probably going to try excess profits taxes. They’re probably going to try export bans, and price caps, and all sorts of other things. And the net result is that guys will take their dividends and go to the beach. They’re not going to drill for oil. No, I think it’s almost inevitable that the government will take a problem and turn it into a crisis.

  Yes, an energy crisis is on the way, courtesy of Uncle Sam.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 20:20

• Watch: FL Rep Calls Trans Hearing Witnesses 'Demons' and 'Imps'
  Watch: FL Rep Calls Trans Hearing Witnesses ‘Demons’ and ‘Imps’

  A Florida legislature hearing on a proposed “bathroom bill” brought something of a fire-and-brimstone sermon this week, when Republican Rep. Webster Barney called transgender people “demons” and “imps” — and he made it clear the label applied to the ones sitting at the witness table. 

  Barnaby, who represents DeLand, began by saying that when he looks at society today, he feels as if he’s watching an X-Men or Marvel movie, such that:   

  “We have people that live among us today on planet Earth that are happy to display themselves as if they were mutants from another planet. This is the planet Earth, where God created men male and women female.

  I’m a proud Christian, conservative, Republican. I’m not on the fence. There is so much darkness in our world today. So much evil in our world today. And so many people who are afraid to address the evil, the dysphoria, the dysfunction. 

  I’m not afraid to address the dysphoria or the dysfunction. The Lord rebuke you, Satan, and all of your demons and all of your imps who come and parade before us.”

  Apparently responding to shocked reactions from the LGBT and trans activist witnesses in front of him, he continued:

  “That’s right – I called you demons and imps who come and parade before us and pretend that you are part of this world. So I’m saying, my righteous indignation is stirred. I am sick and tired of this. I’m not going to put up with it.”

  Florida Republican Rep. Webster Barnaby directly compared trans people to mutants in X-Men and called the trans people, including children, present in the room “demons and imps.”

  This was during debate for HB1421 that would criminalize trans people using bathrooms. pic.twitter.com/y5VsCKeAfJ

  — Alejandra Caraballo (@Esqueer_) April 10, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  While “imp” is commonly used to refer to a mischievous child, its first definition in the Merriam-Webster dictionary is a “small demon.” 

  Committee members of both parties appeared to be unsettled by Barnaby’s remarks. Addressing the witnesses, GOP Rep. Chase Tramont said, “You’re not an evil being. I believe that you’re fearfully and wonderfully made, and I want you to live your life well.”

  Monday’s Florida House Commerce Committee hearing was called for consideration of the “Safety in Private Spaces Act.” It would make it a misdemeanor crime for people 18 and over to use a restroom or changing facility that’s inconsistent with one’s sex assigned at birth — if the fail to “immediately depart” upon request. 

  The bill lists a variety of specific types of venues where it applies, including schools, hurricane shelters, substance abuse centers, health care facilities and public accommodations — which covers  restaurants, gasoline stations, lodgings and entertainment spots.  

  After the committee sent the bill on for a vote on the Florida House floor, Barnaby gave a brief apology: “I referred to trans people as demons. I would like to apologize to the trans community for referring to you as demons.” 

  

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 20:00

• Pentagon Says 11 More US Troops In Syria Diagnosed With Traumatic Brain Injuries
  Pentagon Says 11 More US Troops In Syria Diagnosed With Traumatic Brain Injuries

  Via The Cradle,

  The spokesperson for the US Central Command (CENTCOM) Colonel Joe Buccino disclosed on Thursday that 11 more US troops based in Syria have been diagnosed with traumatic brain injury after a series of retaliatory strikes against illegal US bases in March.

  According to CNN, Buccino affirmed that the US military’s medical teams are continuing to evaluate and assess their troops for indications of permanent and traumatic brain injuries.

  

  The US personnel wounded in these attacks in Syria amount to 25 troops, including a US military contractor, who was killed at a facility in Syria’s northeastern Hasakah province on March 23. Washington claims the perpetrators of the attack were affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

  On the same day of the attack on the US base, US troops carried out “precision airstrikes” in eastern Syria. The presence of the US occupation forces in Syria is deemed illegal under international law.

  According to a March 30 CNN report, six US soldiers had also been diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries as a result of attacks from Iran-backed groups in Syria.

  Similar brain injuries were sustained by over 100 US soldiers in 2020 after Iranian forces targeted the Ain al-Asad military base in Iraq, where US forces were stationed.

  Iran attacked the US base in retaliation for the US assassination of IRGC General Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi resistance leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in a drone strike at the Baghdad airport on January 3 that year.

  When Washington’s effort to topple the Syrian government through militias failed, US planners partnered with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to fight ISIS and thereby occupy Syria’s strategic oil and grain-producing northwest, which had been under ISIS control.

  This has allowed US officials to limit Syrian efforts at rebuilding the country and has exacerbated US-imposed economic sanctions, which have further harmed Syria’s economy and increased suffering among Syria’s civilian population.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 19:40

• Minneapolis Pork Plant In Trouble As Inflation Crimps Demand
  Minneapolis Pork Plant In Trouble As Inflation Crimps Demand

  US food processing plants are under severe pressure as soaring inflation has crimped consumer demand for meat while the cost of doing business soars. 

  According to Bloomberg, HyLife Foods is searching for a buyer for its pork plant in southwest Minneapolis. It purchased the plant three years ago, which processes upwards of 1.2 million hogs annually. 

  

  Hog prices have tumbled since the start of the year amid new concerns pork supplies are outpacing demand. 

  

  Consumers are being walloped by 24 months of negative real wage growth, which has led to increasing budget tightening. 

  

  The combination of sliding prices and demand is exerting pressure on the profitability of meat processing plants.

  

  Hylife Chief Executive Officer Grant Lazaruk told CBS News in a statement:

  “Unfortunately, despite these efforts, we have had to combat a number of challenges, including inflationary pressures, high grain costs, foreign exchange rates and the plant’s operational losses.

  “For some time now, the Company has been exploring several strategic options that would have enabled it to continue go-forward operations despite these financial challenges. Unfortunately, so far, these efforts have not been successful.”

  Only a few months ago, the largest US meat company, Tyson Foods, cut its expectations for operating margins, blaming it on falling meat prices due to easing demand.

  As a result, financially weak meat processing plants could face a domino of closures. If so, this could prove disastrous as closures result in supply cuts and even higher consumer prices. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 19:20

• Analyzing Ethereum's Big Week
  Analyzing Ethereum’s Big Week

  Authored by Ben Giove and Jack Inabinet via Bankless.com,

  How did crypto markets react to Shapella?

  

  We now live in a post-Shapella world!

  One of the largest upgrades in Etheruem’s history officially arrived this week, with Shapella completing Ethereum’s transition to Proof-Of-Stake (PoS) by enabling withdrawals from staking. Leading up to the event, there was rampant speculation on how the upgrade would impact the markets, the staking landscape and DeFi.

  In one corner you had the bulls, who felt that the upgrade represented a significant de-risking event for ETH, believing that the removal of the technical risk around withdrawals would lead to an influx of users who would buy-and-stake.

  In the other camp, you had the bears, who thought that Shapella represented a major supply overhang for ETH, believing that mass withdrawals would lead to persistent sell pressure on the asset.

  Who was right? Let’s dive in.

  Market Reaction

  It’s been under 48 hours since Shapella hit mainnet, but so far it certainly seems to be a “bullish unlock.”

  ETH has roared since the upgrade went live, surging 13.1% from $1871 to $2117 at the time of writing.

  

  [ZH: ETH’s underperformance is most clear when judged against BTC into and out of the fork…]

  

  This move has left a trail of bear carcasses in its wake, leading to more than $84.7M worth of short liquidations between April 12-13. This is the most we’ve seen in a two-day period since March 12-13, when ETH rallied in the wake of the USDC de-peg and banking crisis.

  

  Source: CoinGlass

  Ethereum ecosystem tokens have experienced monster rallies since Shapella, with – unsurprisingly — staking-related tokens leading the charge.

  This includes liquid-staking derivative (LSD) governance tokens, with Lido (LDO), Rocket Pool (RPL), Frax (FXS) and StakeWise (SWISE) surging 14.3%, 17.1%, 12.9% and 19.2% respectively at the time of writing. LSD-Fi protocols have also soared, with Pendle (PENDLE) rallying 19.9%, Flashstake (FLASH) ripping 47.1% and unshETH (USH) mooning 56.1%. Layer 2 tokens have also surged on the back of the move in ETH, with Arbitrum (ARB), and Optimism (OP) rallying 30.8% and 18.0%.

  

  Source: TradingView

  These monster moves suggest that fears of a post-Shapella dump were overblown. Instead, early signs point towards those in the bullish de-risking camp being in the right, as the upgrade has been treated as a buy-the-news event.

  Withdrawal Activity

  Outflows have overpowered deposits and the Beacon Chain has seen 106k in net Ether outflows since Shapella went live. While the impacts of Shapella are just beginning to be felt, it appears prophecies of catastrophe were overblown.

  

  Source: Nansen

  Ethereum’s exit queue is live and full of stakers looking to withdraw. At the time of analysis, there was 827k ETH across 23k validators in the queue, representing 4.1% of the validator set.

  Kraken represents the vast majority of exits (65.9%) as its settlement with the SEC required the shuttering of US staking operations. A majority of these clients (likely proportional to other providers), however, will probably re-stake as the settlement did not alter the underlying benefits of ETH staking.

  

  Source: Nansen

  At the current validator count and given exit queue constraints, a maximum of 1.8k validators can exit per day. All present exit requests can be processed within 14 days from the publication of this article, a far cry from ETH doomers’ calls for months of withdrawals.

  Bankrupt crypto lender Celsius has 158k staked ETH not included in the exit queue at the time of analysis. The need to liquidate this position to repay creditors means withdrawals are inevitable.

  All things the same, less Kraken’s withdrawals and inclusive of Celsius’s withdrawals, 2.3% of ETH staked can be expected as net outflows from full withdrawals. Partial withdrawals are the largest source of potential outflows, with 877k in accrued consensus rewards waiting to be automatically withdrawn at the time of analysis.  Nearly 70% of these rewards, however, belong to validators with type 0x00 credentials and cannot be withdrawn until upgraded to type 0x01 credentials. Stakers have been long aware they need to upgrade credentials prior to withdrawing, so it is unlikely we see a significant number of validators upgrade their credentials in the immediate term, limiting staking outflows from partial withdrawals.

  DeFi Activity

  Solo validators and Staking-as-a-Service products gained liquidity on stake, however, for many LSD protocols, absolutely nothing has changed post-Shapella.

  Liquid-staking heavyweight Lido, for example, will not have withdrawals enabled until May at the earliest, pending deployment to testnet and the completion of several outstanding security audits. An inability to withdraw means outflows from liquid-staking are a non-factor at present. However we currently anticipate larger players like Lido to lose market share to smaller protocols as altruistic stakers move to decentralize network security and new LSD-Fi projects spin up token incentives for their product offerings in the coming months.

  Coinbase’s staking program, which allows users to mint their cbETH staking derivative, is the exception, with redemptions of over 35.5k cbETH for users following Shapella. Coinbase makes up 10.3% of the exit queue, representing a further 86k in full Ether withdrawals. Included in this calculation, however, is withdrawals for products beyond LSDs, like institutional staking.

  

  Source: Dune Analytics

  DeFi borrower demand for liquid-staking derivatives has been virtually non-existent.

  Aave’s stETH market has continued its downward rate spiral, with utilization hovering slightly under 13%. Lenders are currently earning under 10 bps and borrowers are paying 28 bps on the protocol’s Ethereum V3 market. Lending activity on Compound is similarly depressed, with utilization of the ETH market at 54.6%, well below the targeted 90% utilization kink point, above which borrowing rapidly becomes prohibitively expensive.

  Total collateral lent to and borrowed from Compound’s ETH market has also fallen precipitously since the start of April, down 33.4% and 34.9%, respectively. Lending and borrowing rates on the platform have plummeted as well, down from 2.21% to 1.46% and 5.01% to 3.65%, respectively, over the same period.

  LSD stableswap pools have remained relatively… stable, however, we are seeing some early indications of stETH sell pressure, in line with our beliefs that stake will be redistributed from Lido.

  Balancer’s wstETH/sfrxETH/rETH (41.0% wstETH) and wstETH/cbETH (56.6% wstETH) pools, in addition to Curve’s wETH/stETH concentrated pool (64.5% stETH), are all indicating outsized sell pressure on Lido’s staking derivative. Further evidence for this thesis can be found in stETH’s deviation from peg. Currently, stETH is trading at 0.36% discount, compared to a 0.10% premium for rETH, testing the lower bound established after March’s banking crisis.

  

  Source: Dune Analytics

  Should Lido’s competitors be successful at draining its TVL, this results in a near-term steepening of stETH’s discount. Absent withdrawals, the underlying ETH remains illiquid, leaving sale as the sole substitute for redemption.

  A Busy 48 Hours

  As we can see, both the market and on-chain participants have been keeping busy post-Shapella.

  Prices have surged with ETH rallying above $2100, carrying liquid-staking, LSD-Fi, and L2 tokens along with it. Although early, this rally seems to suggest that the event was a de-risking one, rather than the source of torrential sell pressure that some had feared.

  We can also see that there have been net-outflows since the upgrade went live, led in large part by CEXs like Kraken and Coinbase.

  Shapella has also begun to impact the LSD market, with cbETH being hit with more than 35K in redemptions while Lido’s stETH is trading below peg. This suggests that we may be in the early stages of seeing the anticipated migration of deposits away from large stakers like Coinbase and Lido.

  Yes, it hasn’t been very long since Shapella went live – but its effects on the on-chain economy are already beginning to be felt.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 19:00

• China Rejects US Intel Leak Pointing To Covert Arms Transfers To Russia
  China Rejects US Intel Leak Pointing To Covert Arms Transfers To Russia

  China is again vowing that it won’t sell weapons to Russia, or either side of the war for that matter, after new accusations fueled by speculation over a leaked US intelligence document.

  Earlier this week The Washington Post published analysis of a top secret intelligence summary dated to February 23 of this year, which purported to show that China approved the provision of lethal aid to Moscow amid its military operations in Ukraine. 

  

  If true it would confirm what have been months of White House accusations which Beijing has consistently and vehemently denied, also at a time that President Xi Jinping advanced his 12-point peace plan to promote ceasefire negotiations. But US official allegations have so far been limited to asserting that Beijing is merely mulling and discussing the possible provision of lethal aid, not that it’s already done so.

  According to a description of the leaked intelligence document in The Washington Post:

  The intercept, apparently obtained through U.S. eavesdropping on Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), was included in a top-secret summary, dated Feb. 23, of recent Ukraine- and Russia-related “products” compiled by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. It was among a number of previously unreported documents that The Washington Post obtained from a trove of images of classified files posted on a private server on the chat app Discord.

  According to “signals intelligence,” the intelligence summary said, the SVR reported that China’s Central Military Commission had “approved the incremental provision” of weapons and wanted it kept secret. The report did not indicate the source of the SVR’s information.

  On Friday China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang issued new statements on the controversy, explicitly denying arms sales to Russia.

  “Regarding the export of military items, China adopts a prudent and responsible attitude,” Qin said. He issued the words on the occasion of a visit by his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock.

  “China will not provide weapons to relevant parties of the conflict, and manage and control the exports of dual-use items in accordance with laws and regulations,” he stressed. At the same time, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that a change in Taiwan’s status would potentially bring about the “horror scenario” of conflict for the whole world.

  The Pentagon leaks reveal that US intel agencies have been worried that the Ukraine war may bring China and Russia closer together. It’s obvious that this has already happened but war enthusiasts deny it. pic.twitter.com/aQpI91grwY

  — Max Abrahms (@MaxAbrahms) April 12, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Despite the intelligence leak, the Biden administration maintains that it doesn’t believe China has pulled the trigger yet: “We have not seen evidence that China has transferred weapons or provided lethal assistance to Russia. But we remain concerned and are continuing to monitor closely,” a senior administration official was quoted in The Washington Post as saying. “A senior defense official agreed with that assessment. Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss information about the top-secret document.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 18:40

• What The Bud Light Fiasco Reveals About The Ruling Class
  What The Bud Light Fiasco Reveals About The Ruling Class

  Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

  What were they thinking? How did someone believe that making “trans woman” Dylan Mulvaney the icon of a Bud Light ad campaign, complete with a beer can with Mulvaney’s image on it, would be good for sales? With an ad featuring this person vamping around in the most preposterously possible way? 

  

  Dylan, who had previously been interviewed on trans issues by President Biden himself, was celebrating “365 Days of Girlhood” with a grotesquely misogynistic caricature that would disgust just about the whole market for this beer. Indeed, this person’s cosplay might as well be designed to discredit the entire political agenda of gender dysphoriacs. 

  Sure enough, because we don’t have mandates on what beers you must buy, sales of the beer plummeted. 

  The parent company Anheuser-Busch’s stock lost $5 billion or 4 percent in value since the ad campaign rollout. Sales have fallen 50-70 percent. Now there is worry within the company of a widening boycott to all their brands. A local Missouri distributor of the product canceled an appearance by Budweiser Clydesdale horses due to public anger.

  Ads are supposed to sell products, not prompt a massive public backlash that results in billions in losses. This mistake could be for the ages, marking a distinct departure from corporate deference to wackadoodle ideas from the academy and a push for more connection to on-the-ground realities. 

  The person who made the miscalculation is Alissa Gordon Heinerscheid, Vice President in charge of marketing for Bud Light. She explained that her intention was to make the beer King of ‘Woke’ Beers. She wanted to shift away from the “out of touch” frat party image to one of “inclusivity.” By all accounts, she actually believed this. More likely, she was rationalizing actions that would earn her bragging rights within her social circle. 

  Digging through her personal biography, we find all the predictable signs of tremendous detachment from regular life: elite boarding school (Groton, $65K a year), Harvard, Wharton School, coveted internship at General Foods, and straight to top VP at the biggest beverage company in the world. 

  Somehow through all that, nothing entered her brain apart from elite opinion on how the world should work with theories never actually tested by real-world marketing demands. Would that she had worked at Chick-Fil-A at some point in her teen years, perhaps even preserving some friend relationships ever since. It might have protected her from this disastrous error. 

  She is a perfect symbol of a problem that afflicts high-end corporate and government culture: a shocking blindness toward the mainstream of American life, including working classes and other people less privileged.

  They are invisible to this crowd. And her type is pervasive in corporate America with its huge layers of management developed over 20 years of loose credit and push for token representation at the highest levels. 

  We’ve seen this manifest over three years and ruling-class types imposed lockdowns, masks, and vaccine mandates on the whole population without regard to the consequences and with full expectation that the food will continue to be delivered to their doorsteps no matter how many days, months, or years they stay at home and stay safe. 

  The working classes, meanwhile, were shoved out in front of the pathogen to make their assigned contribution to herd immunity so that the rich and privileged could preserve their clean state of being, making TikTok videos and issuing edicts from their safe spaces for two or even three years. 

  In the late 19th century, the blindness of class detachment was a problem that so consumed Karl Marx that he became possessed with the desire to overthrow class distinctions between labor and capital. He kicked off a new age of the classless society under the leadership of the vanguard of the proletarian classes. In every country where his dreams became a reality, however, a protected elite took over and secured themselves from the consequences of their deluded dreams. 

  The people who in recent decades have drunk so deeply from the well of the Marxian tradition seem to be repeating that experience with complete disinterest in the lower classes, while pushing a deepening chasm that only became worse in the lockdown years in which they have controlled the levers of power. 

  It was startling to watch, and I could hardly believe what was happening. Then one day the incredibly obvious dawned on me. All official opinion in this country and even the whole world – government, media, corporations, technology – emanated from the same upper echelons of the class structure. It was people with elite educations and who had the time to shape public opinion. They are the ones on Twitter, in the newsrooms, fussing with the codes, and enjoying the laptop life of a permanent bureaucrat. 

  Their social circles were the same. They knew no one who cut trees, butchered cows, drove trucks, fixed cars, and met payroll in a small restaurant. The “workers and peasants” are people the elites so otherized that they became nothing more than non-playing characters who make stuff work but are not worthy of their attention or time. 

  The result was a massive transfer of wealth upwards in the social ladder as digital brands, technology, and Peloton thrived, while everyone else faced a barrage of ill health, debt, and inflation. As classes have grown more stratified – and, yes, there is a reason to worry about the gap between the rich and the poor when malleability is restricted – the intellectual producers of policy and opinion have constructed their own bubble to protect themselves from by being soiled by contrary points of view. 

  They want the whole world to be their own safe space regardless of the victims. 

  Would lockdowns have happened in any other kind of world? Not likely. And it would not have happened if the overlords did not have the technology to carry on their lives as normal while pretending that no one was really suffering from their scheme. 

  The Bud Light case is especially startling because the advent of commercial society in the high Middle Ages and through the Industrial Revolution was supposed to mitigate against this sort of myopic stratification. And this has always been the most compelling critique of Marx: he was raging against a system that was gradually winnowing away the very demarcations in classes that he decried. 

  Joseph Schumpeter in 1919 wrote an essay on this topic in his book Imperialism and Social Classes. He highlighted how the commercial ethos dramatically changed the class system. 

  “The warlord was automatically the leader of his people in virtually every respect,” he wrote.

  “The modern industrialist is anything but such a leader. And this explains a great deal about the stability of the former’s position and the instability of the latter’s.”

  But what happens when the corporate elites, working together with government, themselves become the warlords? The foundations of market capitalism begin to erode. The workers become ever more alienated from final consumption of the product they have made possible. 

  It’s been typical of people like me – pro-market libertarians – to ignore the issue of class and its impact on social and political structures. We inherited the view of Frederic Bastiat that the good society is about cooperation between everyone and not class conflict, much less class war. We’ve been suspicious of people who rage against wealth inequality and social stratification. 

  And yet we do not live in such market conditions. The social and economic systems of the West are increasingly bureaucratized, hobbled by credentialism, and regulated, and this has severely impacted class mobility. Indeed, for many of these structures, exclusion of the unwashed is the whole point. 

  And the ruling class themselves have ever more the mindset as described by Thorstein Veblen: only the ignorable do actual work while the truly successful indulge in leisure and conspicuous consumption as much as their means allow. One supposes that this doesn’t hurt anyone…until it does.

  And this certainly happened in very recent history as the conspicuous consumers harnessed the power of states all over the world to serve their interests exclusively. The result was calamity for rights and liberties won over a thousand years of struggle. 

  The emergent fissures between the classes – and the diffusions of our ruling class into many sectors public and private – suggest an urgency for a new consciousness of the real meaning of the common good, which is inseparable from liberty. The marketing director of Bud Light talked a good line about “inclusivity” but she plotted to impose everything but that. Her plan was designed for the one percent and to the exclusion of all the people who actually consume the product, to say nothing for the workers who actually make and deliver the product she was charged with promoting.

  That the markets have so brutally punished the brand and company for this profound error points the way to the future. People should have the right to their own choices about the kind of life they want to live and the products and services they want to consume. The dystopia of lockdowns and woke hegemony of public opinion – complete with censorship – have become the policy to overturn if the workers are ever to throw off the chains that bind them. 

  The boycotts of Bud Light are but a beginning. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 18:20

• China Conducts Antiballistic Missile Test While Condemning US Military Drills On Korean Peninsula
  China Conducts Antiballistic Missile Test While Condemning US Military Drills On Korean Peninsula

  China has conducted a rare anti-ballistic missile test on Friday, Bloomberg is reporting based on China’s defense ministry, which has been hailed as successful. 

  It’s being described as a land-based, mid-course antiballistic missile technical test, which was of a “defensive nature” and didn’t target any country, according to the military statement.

  

  “It’s the fourth such test China has successfully conducted since 2018, according to a search on the ministry’s website,” Bloomberg writes, noting further that the last such ballistic missile test was in June 2022.

  China is meanwhile blaming rising tensions on the Korean peninsula on the “negative impact” of US military drills with the south. 

  Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Wang Wenbin said in a Thursday press conference, “The current round of tension on the peninsula has its causes. The negative impact of the US military drills and deployment of strategic weapons around the peninsula is obvious to all,” according to Agence France Presse.

  NEW 🚨 South Korea and U.S. stage air drills, involving B-52H bomber, after North Korea’s ICBM launch

  pic.twitter.com/84R296rlUZ

  — Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) April 14, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Also on Thursday Japan had briefly issued, and then retracted, an emergency evacuation order for residents of the northernmost of Japan’s main island.

  “Evacuate immediately. Immediately evacuate inside the building or underground,” the Thursday morning notification said. “The missile is expected to fall around Hokkaido around 08:00. Please evacuate immediately.”

  North Korea has released footage that shows the launch of the Hwasong-18 solid-fuel ICBM.

  It was cold-launched from a TEL canister.

  This is a big leap in capabilities for NK. pic.twitter.com/KjvrBaMBjm

  — Global: Military-Info (@Global_Mil_Info) April 14, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  North Korea has been engaged in near-daily tests after the US last month kicked off weeks of major joint drills with South Korea. Pyongyang pledged a fierce and appropriate response.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 18:00

• Watch: Carlson Exposes How Establishment Media Is Desperate To Help Cover Up Info From Intel Leaks
  Watch: Carlson Exposes How Establishment Media Is Desperate To Help Cover Up Info From Intel Leaks

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  Fox News host Tucker Carlson noted Thursday that instead of asking questions about the substance of the information contained in the leaked intelligence material from the Pentagon, the corporate media simply wanted to know how they can help cover it up.

  

  The documents, allegedly leaked by a 21-year-old National Guardsman, reveal information showing that the U.S. is deeply involved in the Ukrain/Russia war.

  “If you want to get really sick to your stomach, go pull a transcript from the Pentagon briefing today where news reporters asked flacks from the Pentagon, what are we gonna do to keep information like this secret in the future?” Carlson urged.

  The host added that the press failed to ask “one question about the substance of the information,” adding “We are fighting a war against Russia directly, really? Don’t they have the biggest arsenal in the world? Not one question,” instead the reporters asked “How can we help you keep it secret?”

  “Those are the questions and not only are the media covering up the substance of the story, which is not who leaked it, but what he leaked, they are covering up the crimes committed to get you this information,” Carlson continued.

  “The administration apparently used illegal surveillance techniques to identify this kid apparently with the help of The Washington Post and The New York Times,” Carlson emphasised, further charging that the media is working in lockstep with the intelligence community.

  “If it’s illegal to see these documents if you don’t have a security clearance, how is the Washington Post doing this legally?” Carlson asked, further noting “They don’t have a security clearance. Well, obviously, they were given them by the U.S. Intel agencies and are working alongside them.”

  Carlson asserted “this is information that is relevant to the public in a so-called democracy. You cannot lie about things that jeopardize our collective future and get away with it and you certainly shouldn’t be doing that with the assistance of the news media.”

  “The news media whose job it is to inform you of what your government is doing, but instead they are working actively late into the night to lie to you on behalf of their masters in permanent Washington. By the way, just last week, the plan was to lie in an even more grotesque way and blame Russia for this,” the host also noted.

  Watch:

  Journalist Glenn Greenwald, who was the go between in the Edward Snowden revelations a decade ago, also noted that the media helped hunt down the whistleblower:

  Recall that the WPost did the same thing with Edward @Snowden. They gleefully used part of the archive he obtained, published those docs, praised themselves for the Pulitzer they co-won, and then. . . .

  Demanded he be imprisoned and never pardoned:https://t.co/BmGdVjZZO2

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) April 13, 2023

   

  At the top of Tucker Carlson’s program tonight, he reviewed the significant revelations these leaks provide – including proving the USG lied about its role in Ukraine – and then I spoke about how “journalists” did the FBI’s job to hunt down the leaker:https://t.co/CBHZzKH91t

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) April 14, 2023

  We still don’t know who leaked the draft Dobbs ruling because that went to a liberal corporate outlet. (POLITICO).

  We still haven’t seen the manifesto of the Nashville shooter because it’s inconvenient.

  But this leak was put on Discord, so media outlets are hunting for him.

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) April 13, 2023

  What’s the only thing more surreal and twisted than watching “journalists” become the leading advocates for more online censorship?

  Watching them do the FBI’s work to hunt down leakers, then march to the Pentagon to demand it do more to prevent future transparency and leaks: https://t.co/5OLaDkOeTl

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) April 14, 2023

  I cannot think of any event that shines more compelling and vivid light on the real function of the largest media corporations than how they helped find the leaker and demand the FBI arrest him.

  Tonight’s @SystemUpdate_ episode examined all of this:https://t.co/sAwam8aWOE

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) April 14, 2023

  The only thing weirder (and more twisted) than watching self-proclaimed journalists be the leading advocates for censorship is watching them eagerly do the FBI’s work of catching people who leak classified documents.

  I hope the real function of these corporations is clear.

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) April 13, 2023

  On the left: The Washington Post celebrating itself and heaping praise on its own bravery for co-winning the Pulitzer for its use of documents provided by Edward @Snowden.

  On the right: The Washington Post editors demanding Snowden be prosecuted instead of being pardoned. https://t.co/byzZpr29PW pic.twitter.com/6e8Leqx699

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) April 13, 2023

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 04/14/2023 – 17:40

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