Today’s News 15th May 2024

• Mass Starvation: Here's Why Most Of America Is Completely Unprepared
  Mass Starvation: Here’s Why Most Of America Is Completely Unprepared

  Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

  The concept of mass starvation has not been in the forefront of American society for a very long time. Even during the Great Depression the US was majority agrarian and most people knew how to live off the land. In fact, the US has never suffered a true national famine. There have been smaller regional instances of famine (such as during the Dust Bowl in the 1930s), but nothing coming remotely close to the kinds of famines we have seen in Asia, the Eastern Bloc, Africa or the Middle East in the past 100 years.

  

  Even Western Europeans dealt with major famines during the World Wars (like the Dutch Famine) and that experience has left an imprint on their collective consciousness. Most Americans, on the other hand, don’t get it. Because we have lived in relative security and economic affluence for so long the idea of ever having to go without food seems “laughable” to many people. When the notion of economic collapse is brought up they jeer and call it “conspiracy theory.”

  Compared to the Great Depression, the US population today is completely removed from agriculture and has no idea what living off the land means. These are not things that can be learned in a few months from books and YouTube videos; they require years of experience to master.

  I will say that things have changed dramatically in the past two decades I have been writing for the liberty media. When I started back in 2006 the preparedness movement was incredibly small and often people were afraid to broach such topics in public forums.

  In the past several years preparedness culture has EXPLODED in popularity. Millions of Americans are now dedicated survival experts with extensive preps and firearms training. Prepping and shooting is no longer the realm of tinfoil hat “crazies”, now it’s considered cool.

  The credit crash of 2008-2009 certainly helped wake people up to the reality of economic instability in the US. Then the covid pandemic, the lockdowns and the attempts at medical tyranny really shocked Americans out of their stupor. Everything we “conspiracy theorists” have been warning about was suddenly confirmed in the span of a couple of years. Every time globalists and governments create a crisis they only inspire more preppers.

  The greater problem in terms of famine is not that individual Americans are not aware of the threat; many of them are. The problem is that our infrastructure and logistical systems are designed to fail and there’s not much the average citizen can do about it.

  The just-in-time freight system is perhaps one of the worst ever devised in terms of community redundancy. Any disruption no matter how minor could cut off supplies to a town or city for days or weeks. Then there’s the interdependency that comes with food being produced outside most states. If your state does not have a solid agricultural base then it will be reliant on outside food sources during a crisis. What guarantees are there that your region will be able to secure food from elsewhere?

  Furthermore, most of the populace, even those that are preparing, have never experienced large scale starvation events before. It’s difficult to adapt mentally to a threat that one has never seen.

  I suggest people who want to know what starvation feels like practice it from time to time. Try fasting for 24 hours, then try fasting for 48 hours. See how many days you can go without eating (just be sure to drink plenty of water). My maximum was seven days (after months of practice), and what I found was that after day three the hunger pangs actually stop altogether. You don’t go crazy, you don’t get violent; at most you might get tired, but you will also be surprised at how heightened your thinking becomes and how much energy you still have.

  The human body can survive for three weeks or more without a single bite of food. My suspicion is that initial panic over potential hunger is the thing that causes the most violence during famines. People encounter starvation and lose their minds within the first three days. First-stage stomach pains and fogginess causes them to react without thinking and this leads to the widespread riots and other crisis events we are used to seeing in history during food shortages.

  Fasting is a way to educate yourself on what it means to starve; it’s not as bad as it seems as long as you have some fat stores in your body. When you hit the point of muscle loss and organ deprivation, that’s when things change and the possibility of death arises. Having some familiarity with the feeling of true hunger will help you to avoid panic should the real thing ever occur in the future.

  The greater problem is not what you can endure, though. Watching people you care about starve is much more difficult. This is not something you can practice for and it could be a far more powerful motivator when it comes to looting and crime during a crash.

  The goal of course is to avoid famine altogether. Food storage is the foundation of any survival plan. Anyone who claims that jumping right into agriculture and hunting and wild edibles is the solution has never actually had to survive off the land in their lives. The reality is, finding enough food and growing enough food to live on is difficult for most people even in normal times.

  During collapse, crops are often difficult to plant safely. They can be stolen or destroyed easily and require large communities of people to maintain and protect. Even smaller gardens can draw attention from undesirables and are hard to hide.

  Hunting might be useful initially if you live in a rural area, but you won’t be the only person with the same idea and animals will move out of a region quickly if they are being hunted on a daily basis. You’ll have to go further and further out to find them and that’s risky during a crisis.

  Wild edibles are nice in spring and summer when they are plentiful, but then again, if you’re hiking around expending more calories that you can get from these plants then the entire exercise is pointless. I tend to find that wild edibles proponents are the most delusional when it comes to the logistics of survival. Survivalists who think they’re going to run to the woods and live off of the random plants they find will probably die.

  Growing food, hunting food and foraging food are all supplemental measures, especially in the first years of any crisis event. Without a primary emergency supply most people will not make it. Food storage has been a mainstay of civilization for thousands of years for a reason – It works. When larger secure communities are established then agriculture can return and self sustaining production makes food storage less important. Until then, what you have in your basement or your garage is the only thing that’s going to keep you alive.

  Unfortunately, there are some people out there who think they don’t need to store supplies because they plan to take from other people. Firstly, anyone who makes this their Plan A is probably a psychopath and I have zero empathy for them. Secondly, such people won’t stay alive very long. With every violent encounter the risk of injury or death increases; looters and raiders will be whittled down rather quickly as they get picked off by people defending their resources.

  It’s not like the movies, folks; marauders will disappear swiftly during a crash. After the first year I would be surprised if any of these individuals or groups still exist.

  In the meantime, the initial stages of collapse are going to be a shock for many Americans. It could be a grid down event, an economic collapse, a supply chain collapse, etc., but the panic associated with hunger will be ever present. People who understand the nature of famine can avoid panic and organize for safety. They will survive and thrive. People who don’t understand famine will freak out in the first week without food and make detrimental mistakes.

  Mental preparedness is just as important as physical preparedness. Keep that in mind as we move forward into uncertain times.

  *  *  *

  One survival food company, Prepper All-Naturals, has proactively dropped prices to allow Americans to stock up ahead of projected hikes in beef prices. Their 25-year shelf life steaks currently come at a 25% discount with promo code “invest25”.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 23:40

• Samsung Tops Apple In Q1 Global Smartphone Shipments
  Samsung Tops Apple In Q1 Global Smartphone Shipments

  While not quite a duopoly, Apple and Samsung have long been known to produce the most popular smartphones from a global perspective. Over the past years, however, Chinese tech companies have started catching up and, at times, even overtaking Apple’s iPhone product lines.

  In the following chart, based on data from the IDC Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker,  Statista’s Florian Zandt shows that between January and March 2024, roughly one out of five of the 289 million smartphones shipped were Samsung devices, while Apple commanded a market share of 17.3 percent. Xiaomi, however, wasn’t far behind with a 14.1 percent share in the market translating to around 41 million smartphones shipped in the first quarter of the year.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Rounding out the four smartphone vendors with the highest amount of devices shipped is Transsion, which produced every tenth smartphone sold in the first three months of 2024. Although the Chinese company entered IDC’s top 5 for the first time in the second quarter of 2023, it’s been around since 2006. Its devices have become increasingly popular in emerging markets like the African continent.

  Looking at smartphone vendor market share over time, Apple and Samsung have been on top for most of the first quarters since 2014. The notable exception is Huawei, which rose to prominence in the latter half of the 2010s and even managed to overtake Samsung for the best-selling smartphone brand worldwide in the second quarter of 2020 after already coming within 3.3 percentage points in the three months prior.

  Huawei’s rise was abruptly halted by the end of 2020, reportedly due to the increasing pressure of U.S. sanctions on the company. Its shoes were quickly filled by its Chinese competitors Xiaomi and Oppo, which had combined market shares ranging from 22 to 25 percent in the first quarters of 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 23:20

• Over $13 Million Paid Out In Vaccine Injury Claims In Australia
  Over $13 Million Paid Out In Vaccine Injury Claims In Australia

  Authored by Monica O’Shea via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The Australian government has paid out $20.5 million (US$13.2 million) in COVID-19 vaccine injury claims to people who experienced harm from the jab.

  

  Services Australia data provided to The Epoch Times reveals 6.82 percent of claims have been compensated so far, that is 286 out of 4,191.

  “As at 31 March 2024, the COVID-19 Vaccine Claims Scheme has received 4,191 claims and paid 286 claims to the value of around $20.5 million,” a spokesperson said.

  “Services Australia expects to receive new claims until the COVID-19 Vaccine Claims Scheme’s end date of 30 September 2024.”

  The updated figures up to the end of March, follow a submission to the government’s COVID-19 Inquiry, revealing it had paid $16.9 million worth of claims up to the end of November 2023.

  The federal government is due to deliver a budget for 2024/2025 covering all government agencies in the evening on May 14.

  How Does the Vaccine Claims Scheme Work?

  Australia’s COVID-19 vaccine claims scheme allows individuals to claim losses above $1,000 in relation to “moderate to severe adverse reactions to COVID-19 vaccines.”

  It covers vaccines approved by the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) including the AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax jabs.

  Services Australia administers the scheme on behalf of the Department of Health and Aged Care (DHAC). In April, the Department updated the policy to include more claimable conditions, based on advice from the TGA.

  In order to make a compensation claim, individuals must meet the definition of harm, be admitted to hospital as an inpatient, or have a waiver if seen in outpatient care.

  Further, those who suffered harm need to have experienced losses or expenses of more than $1,000 due to the vaccine.

  The conditions included range from anaphylactic reaction to erythema multiforme (major), myocarditis, pericarditis and thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome.

  Also included, are shoulder injuries from the vaccine, or other moderate to significant physical injuries that caused permanent impairment or need an extended period of medical treatment.

  “In both cases, the injuries must have been sustained during the physical act of being given the vaccine. You must also have been admitted to hospital as an in-patient,” Services Australia explains.

  “Presenting to an emergency department is not recognised as being admitted to hospital.”

  Lockdown Lead to Surge in Demand for Government Services

  Services Australia revealed it had processed 1.3 million JobSeeker claims in 55 days in 2020, an amount that equates to the claim volume normally processed within two and a half years.

  “At the peak, more than 53,000 claims were completed in a single day. Within the same 55 day period, the Agency also received and monitored approximately 3.7 million phone calls, 1.9 million service centre walk-ins, and 250,000 social media interactions,” the department said (pdf).

  During Victoria’s lockdown in 2021, demand for COVID-related claims also surged.

  “In less than 4 months, between 1 July and 26 October 2021, Services Australia processed over 5.1 million COVID-related claims alone—more than the full-year total of 3.5 million claims across all social security and welfare payments in the year prior to COVID (2018-19).”

  Not Enough Focus on Mental Health, Psychologists

  Meanwhile, the Australian Association of Psychologists Incorporated (AAPi) has raised concerns that there was not enough focus on mental health support during the pandemic.

  “Particularly during times of crisis, such as snap lockdowns, crisis support lines should have been prominently displayed along with the urging of people to reach out for support and the continuation of psychological treatment,” they said.

  The Foundation for Alcohol Research and Education (FARE) also raised concerns that alcohol companies and retailers taking advantage of the situation.

  “Alcohol companies invested significantly in digital marketing and in expanding their capacity to deliver alcohol, outpacing privacy and marketing regulation,” FARE said.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 23:00

• Elections And Devaluations
  Elections And Devaluations

  Authored by Yves Smith via NakedCapitalism.com,

  Yves here. It’s revealing that Serious Economist Jeffrey Frankel limits himself to third-world examples in his case studies below on post-election devaluations.

  Perhaps it would be unseemly to look at, say, the US, UK, Japan, South Korea, or even Australia (admittedly the latter and Canada have their currency values substantially affected by commodity prices). Of course, Frankel might contend that any politically-related currency action in an advanced economy would not amount to a depreciation-level decline. After all, they have independent central banks.

  As many, including your humble blogger, have noted, the US is running a very hot fiscal policy along side tight monetary policy. Hence America has persisted in having solid to very strong groaf figures, leading the Fed to persist in tight monetary policy. All of that has led the dollar to trade at very lofty levels.

  One has to think the dollar will start to reverse near the election, say in October. But inflation has been very sticky, and it’s interest rates that are buoying the greenback, so it might stay comparatively strong even past the election. In addition, the US has, at least since the Clinton Administration, has had an explicit strong dollar policy. Weak currencies and financial centers do not co-exist happily. The Fed has historically not cared a whit about what moves in interest rates have done in terms of in and out flows to emerging economies, who are routinely whipsawed by hot money moves. One wonders if we will eventually see the Fed become more attentive to the value of the dollar.

  Any readers who are currency-knowledgeable are encouraged to opine on which countries might look more attractive as King Dollar retreats from its current high.

  

  By Jeffrey Frankel, Economist and Professor, Harvard Kennedy School. Originally published at VoxEU

  An unprecedented number of voters will go to the polls globally in 2024. It has long been noted that incumbents tend to engage in expansive fiscal (and where possible monetary) policy in the run up to elections in order to buoy the economy and therefore their electoral prospects. This column extends this concept to look at exchange rates and finds that currencies frequently depreciate following an election as the incumbent’s efforts to overvalue the currency in the run up to the election are unwound and the new government comes to terms with depleted reserves and current account woes.

  Lots of countries are voting, with 2024 an unprecedented year in terms of the number of people who will go to the polls.  Recent elections in a number of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) have demonstrated anew the proposition that major currency devaluations are more likely to come immediately after an election, rather than before one. Indeed, Nigeria, Turkey, Argentina, Egypt, and Indonesia are five countries that have experienced post-election devaluations within the last year.

  The Election–Devaluation Cycle

  Economists will recall a 50-year-old paper by Nobel Prize winning professor Bill Nordhaus as essentially initiating research on the political business cycle (PBC).  The PBC refers to governments’ general inclination towards fiscal and monetary expansion in the year leading up to an election, in hopes of the incumbent president, or at least the incumbent party, being re-elected.  The idea is that growth in output and employment will accelerate before the election, boosting the government’s popularity, whereas the major costs in terms of debt troubles and inflation will come after the election.

  But the seminal 1975 paper by Nordhaus also included the prediction of a foreign exchange cycle particularly relevant for EMDEs.  That is the proposition that countries generally seek to prop up the value of their currencies before an election, spending down their foreign exchange reserves, if necessary, only to undergo a devaluation after the election.

  Nordhaus wrote: “It is predicted that the concern with loss of reserves and balance of payments deficits will be greater in the beginning of electoral regimes, and less toward the end.…The basic difficulty in making intertemporal choices in democratic systems is that the implicit weighting function on consumption has positive weight during the electoral period and zero (or small) weights in the future.”

  The devaluation may be undertaken deliberately by an incoming government, choosing to get the unpleasant step – with its unpopular exacerbation of inflation – out of the way while it can still blame it on its predecessors.  Or the devaluation may take the form of an overwhelming balance-of-payments crisis soon after the election.  Either way, a government has an incentive to hoard international reserves during the early part of its term in office, and to spend them more freely to defend the currency toward the end of its term.

  A political leader is almost twice as likely to lose office in the six months following a major devaluation as otherwise, especially among presidential democracies (Frankel 2005).  Why are devaluations so unpopular that governments fear to undertake them before elections?  In the traditional textbook model, a devaluation stimulates the economy by improving the trade balance.  But devaluations are always inflationary in countries which import at least a portion of the basket of goods consumed.  Furthermore, devaluations in EMDEs often are contractionary for economic activity, particularly via the adverse balance sheet effects on those domestic borrowers who had incurred debts denominated in dollars.

  The theory of the political devaluation cycle was developed in a series of papers by Ernesto Stein and co-authors.  One might think that voters would wise up to these cycles and vote against a leader who sneakily postponed a needed exchange rate adjustment.  But given a lack of information about the true nature of the politicians, voters may in fact be acting rationally.  Figure 1, from Stein and Streb (2005) shows that devaluations are far more common in the immediate aftermath of changes in government. (The sample covers 118 episodes of changes, excluding coups, among 26 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean between 1960 and 1994.)

  Figure 1 Average devaluation pattern before and after elections

  

  Source: Stein and Streb (2004).

  Some Devaluations Over the Past Year

  Many EMDEs have been under balance-of-payments pressure during the last two years.  One factor is that the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates sharply in 2022-23 and is now leaving them higher for longer than markets had been expecting.  Consequently, international investors find US treasury bills more attractive than EMDE loans and securities.

  A good example of the political devaluation cycle is Nigeria.  Africa’s most populous country held a contentious presidential election on 25 February 2023.  The incumbent, who was term-limited, had long used foreign exchange intervention, capital controls, and multiple exchange rates to avoid devaluing the currency, the naira. The new Nigerian president, Bola Tinabu, was inaugurated on 29 May 2023. Two weeks later, on 14 June, the government devalued the naira by 49% (from 465 naira/$, to 760 naira/$, computed logarithmically). It soon turned out that this was not enough to restore equilibrium in the balance of payments.  At the end of January 2024, the government abandoned its effort to prop up the official value of the naira, devaluing another 45% (from 900 naira/$ to 1,418 naira/$, logarithmically).

  A second example is Turkey’s election in May 2023. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had long pursued economic growth by obliging the central bank to keep interest rates low – a populist monetary policy that was widely ridiculed because of the president’s insistence that it would reduce soaring inflation – while simultaneously intervening to support the value of the lira.  The government guaranteed Turkish bank deposits against depreciation, an expensive and unsustainable way to prolong the currency overvaluation.  After the elections, the lira was immediately devalued, as the theory predicts.  The currency continued to depreciate during the remainder of the year.

  Next, on 19 November 2023, Argentina elected a surprise candidate as president, Javier Milei.  Often described as a far-right libertarian, he comes from none of the established political parties. He campaigned on a platform of diminishing sharply the role of the government in the economy and abolishing the ability of the central bank to print money.  Milei was sworn in on December 10. Two days later, on 12 December he cut the official value of the peso by more than half (a 78% devaluation, computed logarithmically, from 367 pesos/$ to 800 pesos/$).  At the same time, he took a chain saw to government spending such as energy subsidies rapidly achieved a budget surplus, and initiated sweeping reforms.  Argentine inflation remains very high, but the central bank stopped losing foreign exchange reserves after the devaluation, again as predicted by the theory.

  A fourth example is Egypt, where President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi just started a third term, on 2 April 2024. The economy has been in crisis for some time. Nevertheless, the government had ensured its overwhelming re-election on 10-12 December 2023 by postponing unpleasant economic measures, not to mention by preventing serious opponents from running.  The widely expected devaluation of the Egyptian pound, came on 6 March 2024 depreciating 45% (from 31 egyptian pounds/$ to 49 pounds/$, logarithmically).  It was part of an enhanced-access IMF programme, which also included the usual unpopular monetary and fiscal discipline.

  Finally, in Indonesia the widely liked but term-limited President Jokowi is soon to be succeeded by the Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, who is less widely liked but was backed by the incumbent in the 14 February election. The rupiah has been depreciating ever since the 20 March announcement of the outcome of the contentious presidential vote.  It fell almost to an all-time record low against the dollar on 16 April.

  What next?

  Of course, the association between elections and the exchange rate is not inevitable.  India is undergoing elections now and Mexico will in June.  But neither seems especially in need of major currency adjustment.

  Venezuela is scheduled to hold a presidential election in July.  As with some other countries, the election is expected to be a sham because no major opposition candidates are allowed to run. The economy is in a shambles due to long-time mismanagement featuring hyperinflation in the recent past and a chronically overvalued bolivar.  But the same government that essentially outlaws political opposition also essentially outlaws buying foreign exchange.  So, equilibrium may not be restored to the foreign exchange market for some time.

  To stave off devaluation, these countries do more than just spend their foreign exchange reserves.  They often use capital controls or multiple exchange rates, as opposed to allowing free financial markets.  That doesn’t invalidate the phenomenon of post-election devaluations; it just works to insulate the governments a bit longer from the need to adjust to the reality of macroeconomic fundamentals.  Unfortunately, many of these countries also fail to allow free and fair elections, which works to also insulate the government from the need to respond to the voters’ verdict.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 22:40

• "The Russians Just Walked In": Ukraine Border Defense Funds Diverted To Fake Companies In Massive "Betrayal"
  “The Russians Just Walked In”: Ukraine Border Defense Funds Diverted To Fake Companies In Massive “Betrayal”

  Authored by Thomas Stevenson via Human Events (emphasis ours),

  Head of the Mezha Anti-Corruption Center, Martyna Bohuslavets, has written a report in Pravda asking “Where are the fortifications?” She reports that millions of dollars that were intended for the construction of fortifications in Ukraine were instead “transferred to Kharkiv OVA to front companies of avatars.”

  

  Bohuslavets said the Ukrainian Kharkiv Regional Military Administration (Kharkiv OVA) paid out funds to fictitious companies during the construction and fortification of the Kharkiv region. The report comes as Russian forces have broken into the northern region of Ukraine and the US continues funding the war.

  According to Ukranian Pravda reports, the Russian military has begun to advance in the northern region of Ukraine where funding that was set for fortification was transferred to fake companies. The offensive from the Russian military launched on Monday with attacks on towns and villages, the Kyiv Post reports. A total of 7 billion hryvnias was spent there by Ukraine, according to the report.  

  This comes as the BBC reports that a regional Ukrainian commander in Kharkiv has said that the first line of defense was missing in a massive “betrayal” in the northern region of the country.  Denys Yaroslavskyi, a commander in the region in charge of the Ukrainian Special Reconnaissance Unit, told the outlet, “There was no first line of defence. We saw it. The Russians just walked in. They just walked in, without any mined fields.” 

  He told the BBC that government officials claimed to have built up the mines as the first line of defense at a huge cost. He told reporters, “Either it was an act of negligence, or corruption. It wasn’t a failure. It was a betrayal.” He then added, “When we were fighting back for this territory in 2022, we lost thousands of people. We risked our lives.” 

  “And now because someone didn’t build fortifications, we’re losing people again,” he stated.  

  In March, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) reported on the lack of oversight on the funds going to Ukraine during the war. GAO found in its report from March that the Defense Department is lacking in its ability to provide oversight on the resources being sent to Ukraine in the war.  

  The GAO reported, “DOD does not have quality data to track delivery of defense articles to Ukraine. DOD guidance on PDA does not clearly define at what point in the delivery process defense articles should be recorded as delivered or provide clear instructions for how DOD service branches are to confirm delivery.” 

  It added that full documentation of the funding being sent to the military effort has been lacking.  

  Ukraine has entered the “where is the money, Lebowski” phase https://t.co/llv6KOmUGb

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 14, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 22:20

• FDA Preparing For Possible Bird Flu Spread Among Humans: Commissioner
  FDA Preparing For Possible Bird Flu Spread Among Humans: Commissioner

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

  The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is preparing for a scenario in which the highly pathogenic avian influenza starts spreading among humans, the agency’s commissioner said on May 8.

  “This virus, like all viruses, is mutating. We need to continue to prepare for the possibility that it might jump to humans,” Dr. Robert Califf, the commissioner, told senators during a hearing in Washington.

  The influenza, also known as the bird flu or H5N1, has recently started spreading among cattle and other species. One person in Texas has had a confirmed case this year.

  

  Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Robert Califf in Washington in a file image. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

  So far, genetic sequencing and other data indicate that influenza poses little risk to people, and there are no signs that the flu is transmitting from person-to-person, according to U.S. officials. But they are working on getting treatments, tests, and vaccines ready in case that changes.

  “We’ve been busy getting prepared for if the virus does mutate in a way that jumps into humans on a larger level,” Dr. Califf told the Senate Appropriations Committee’s Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee.

  The patient in Texas primarily experienced one symptom: inflamed eyes. Neither the patient nor many of the cows that have been infected have suffered respiratory symptoms. H5N1 commonly infects the respiratory tracts of birds.

  “The real worry is that it will jump to the human lungs, where, when that has happened in other parts of the world for brief outbreaks, the mortality rates have been 25 percent,” Dr. Califf said. The worry is based in part on how viruses typically mutate, such as in the case of COVID-19.

  From 2003 to April 1, 2024, 889 cases of H5N1 have been confirmed across the globe, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Of the patients, 52 percent have died.

  WHO chief scientist Jeremy Farrar said recently that H5N1 has developed into a “global zoonotic animal pandemic” and that scientists are concerned that the virus could evolve to spread among humans.

  Tedros Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the organization, said Wednesday that “the virus does not show signs of having adapted to spread among humans, but more surveillance is needed.”

  Many experts consulted by the U.S. government are concerned about the jump of the influenza to cattle and other species and how cattle intermingle with pigs, chickens, and humans on farms, according to Dr. Califf. A May 3 study from U.S. and Danish researchers said testing of tissues from cattle indicated the animals could serve as a “mixing vessel” for avian influenza because receptors from chickens, ducks, and humans were expressed in the cows.

  While the risk is still low, “if we institute the countermeasures now and reduce the spread of the virus now, then we’re much less likely to see a mutation that jumps to humans for which we’re ill-prepared,” Dr. Califf added.

  Current U.S. rules mandate testing of some cattle before being moved to another state. The guidance includes advising workers on farms to wear protective equipment when dealing with animals that may be or are sick with the bird flu.

  The FDA is focusing in part on ensuring the country’s milk supply is safe to drink. The agency and its partners have tested samples of milk from grocery stores. Although some samples tested positive, no live virus has been detected, meaning the milk supply is safe, according to the agency.

  Test results from beef have also found beef is safe, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

  The agency has confirmed H5N1 infections in 36 herds across nine states, including Colorado, Kansas, and Michigan. Data from affected cows indicate H5N1 began circulating in cattle in late 2023, according to a preprint paper from the department.

  About 70 farm workers are being monitored in Colorado, officials said in a briefing this week, but none have displayed symptoms as of yet.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 22:00

• Why 1960 Alternate Electors Succeeded Where 2020 Ones Failed
  Why 1960 Alternate Electors Succeeded Where 2020 Ones Failed

  Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A November election decades ago produced a clear winner in a hotly contested presidential race. Yet the popular vote immediately came under scrutiny in several states. In one, auditors discovered clear errors in tabulating vote totals. In others, credible evidence of election fraud was uncovered.

  

  With a court challenge underway, electors from both parties met at a state capitol and conducted the electoral vote. Two certifications were forwarded to Washington, one declaring the Democratic candidate to be the victor, the other naming the Republican.

  The Republican vice president—also a candidate in the race—convened a joint session of Congress on Jan. 6. Without fanfare, he moved to accept the Democratic slate of electors and set the Republican electors aside.

  So ended the presidential election of 1960.

  The state in question was Hawaii. The vice president was Richard Nixon, who ran against Democrat John F. Kennedy, and would have won if as few as 11,000 votes spread over five battleground states had gone the other way.

  Sixty years later, history nearly repeated itself as Republican electors from seven states sent alternative electoral certifications to Washington amid allegations of election fraud.

  This time the alternate slates were rejected. On Jan. 6, 2021, in a joint session presided over by Republican Vice President Mike Pence, also a candidate in the race, Congress certified Democratic candidate Joe Biden the winner over President Donald Trump.

  Many Americans have no memory of the 1960 election, and few are likely aware of the striking similarities between it and the 2020 election. The Hawaii election provided the rationale for the alternate elector plan promoted by some associates of President Trump following the 2020 election.

  Since last year, criminal prosecutions have been levied against Republicans who took part in the plan in Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizona. President Trump is facing related charges in a Washington federal court.

  The two elections have much in common, yet the cases exhibit key differences that spelled success for the alternate electors in 1960 and defeat in 2020.

  Recount in Progress

  The first tally of votes in Hawaii during the 1960 election showed Kennedy had won by 92 votes. After a second tabulation of the totals—not a recount of the ballots themselves—Nixon led by 141 votes.

  Democrats petitioned a state circuit court for a recount. But Republican Lt. Gov. James Kealoha, who was acting governor at the time, had no legal authority to reopen the ballots or invalidate the results. So he certified Nixon as the winner.

  

  After an initial audit, a judge ordered a full recount of the state’s ballots on Dec. 13, 1960, just six days before the electoral vote.

  That court order was crucial to the success of Hawaii’s dual elector plan because it placed the outcome of the popular vote in legal limbo. While a winner had been certified, a state court had taken action that might lead to a different result.

  Lawsuits were also filed to challenge aspects of the 2020 election. One was pending in Georgia, and one remained under appeal in Michigan, though the Michigan Supreme Court refused to halt certification of the popular vote on Dec. 9, 2020.

  However, there was no court order in any state and no action by a state legislature to mandate a recount or to delay the certification of the election.

  State-Certified Electors

  In 1960 the ongoing recount created a dilemma for Hawaii’s acting governor. If only the Republican electors voted, Nixon would carry Hawaii even if Kennedy was later found to have won the most votes.

  Yet federal law establishes the date for the electoral vote as “the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December” following the election. If there were no vote on Dec. 19, 1960, the brand-new state of Hawaii would miss out on its first presidential election.

  So with the recount in progress, both sets of Hawaii electors met at Iolani Palace, the seat of the Hawaiian government. They voted for their respective candidates one minute apart. Kealoha signed two certificates of ascertainment and sent them to Washington.

  A certificate of ascertainment states the elector candidates pledged to a presidential candidate and the total number of votes received. The electors for the candidate who received the most votes are “elected” as presidential electors from their state.

  A separate document, the electoral ballot, states the outcome of the electoral vote for that state.

  The certificate of ascertainment is a second important difference between the 1960 and 2020 cases.

  To be sure, some of the 2020 electors knew about the Hawaii case and used it as a rationale for their efforts. The Pennsylvania Republican Party issued a press release stating as much.

  “Today’s move by the Republican Party electors is fashioned after the 1960 Presidential election, in which President Nixon was declared the winner in Hawaii,” the Dec. 14, 2020, release stated.

  

  “While Democrat legal challenges were pending, Democratic presidential electors met to cast a conditional vote for John F. Kennedy to preserve their intent in the event of future favorable legal outcomes.”

  In 2020, Republican electors in Pennsylvania and New Mexico added conditional language to their vote certifications, saying they were filed “on the understanding that it might later be determined that we are the duly elected and qualified Electors for President and Vice President of the United States of America” from their respective states.

  Read the rest here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 21:40

• Target To Limit LGBT Pride Products To Online And 'Select Stores' After Last Summer's Controversy
  Target To Limit LGBT Pride Products To Online And ‘Select Stores’ After Last Summer’s Controversy

  Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Target has announced that its LGBT-themed merchandise will only be sold online and at select stores this June, a decision made after last year’s Pride Month marketing campaign divided customers and dragged down sales.

  

  In a statement on its website, Target said that instead of prominently displaying its Pride Month collection in all its stores, it will be “offering a collection of products including adult apparel, home, food, and beverage items, curated based on consumer feedback.”

  “The collection will be available on Target.com and in select stores, based on historical sales performance,” the company added, noting that it will also join Pride Month events in “our hometown of Minneapolis and around the country” over the summer.

  A spokesperson for the retailer didn’t specify the number of brick-and-mortar stores where Pride Month merchandise will be sold, although a report by Bloomberg indicated that about half would do so.

  “Target is committed to supporting the LGBTQIA+ community during Pride Month and year-round,” Target told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement. “Most importantly, we want to create a welcoming and supportive environment for our LGBTQIA+ team members, which reflects our culture of care for the over 400,000 people who work at Target.”

  Last summer, Target came under heavy criticism on social media following the release of its LGBT-themed collection, which featured a range of clothing, including what was dubbed a “tuck-friendly” female-style swimsuit designed to help men who identify as transgender conceal their genitalia. Some products were also labeled as being able to “thoughtfully fit on multiple body types and gender expressions.”

  Shoppers who disagreed with Target’s promotion of what they saw as “woke” transgender ideology posted videos and images on social media showing rainbow-colored onesies for infants as well as swimsuits that offer “extra crotch coverage” that many viewers mistakenly believed were aimed at children. The swimwear in question was available in adult sizes extra-small through extra-large and were not in the kid’s section.

  Other products that received backlash from conservative shoppers included apparel and accessory items for adults with pro-LGBT messages, such as “We Belong Everywhere,” “Too Queer for Here,” and “Cure Transphobia” from British designer Erik Carnell, who identifies as a gay transgender man. The designer’s brand Abprallen also includes clothing sporting Satanist imagery, although the designs in question weren’t available for sale in Target.

  Since the controversy and ensuing backlash, the retailer announced it would remove some of the Pride merchandise from its shelves. Some rural Target stores in more socially conservative Southern states were also forced to move the items away from front-of-store displays due to customer backlash.

  “Given these volatile circumstances, we are making adjustments to our plans, including removing items that have been at the center of the most significant confrontational behavior,” the company said at the time, alleging violent threats that were “impacting our team members’ sense of safety and well-being” on the job.

  But the backlash didn’t stop there. Target’s reaction to conservative outrage by scaling back its LGBT merchandise and displays then prompted complaints from progressive advocacy groups, who questioned the company’s stated support of their cause.

  “The LGBTQ+ community has celebrated Pride with Target for the past decade. Target needs to stand with us and double-down on their commitment to us,” Kelley Robinson, president of the Human Rights Campaign, wrote on X.

  The backlash coming from customers on both sides appears to have taken a toll on the brand. In August 2023, Target’s own earnings report unveiled its first quarterly sales decline in six years, with net sales down 4.9 percent from the same quarter the previous year.

  In a full-year earnings report released this March, Target reported a total 2023 revenue fall of 1.6 percent to $107.4 billion, down from $109.1 billion a year earlier. Comparable sales for the 2023 fiscal year also declined nearly 4 percent, although operating income rose 48 percent to $5.7 billion.

  While the company partly blamed the dip in sales on the post-COVID shift in consumer trends, it also said it would be reevaluating how it celebrates Pride Month in the future.

  “As we navigate an ever-changing operating and social environment, we’re committed to staying close to our guests and their expectations,” Target chief executive Brian Cornell said in last August’s corporate earning call, defending the decision to adjust the chain’s Pride Month assortment in the face of negative customer reaction.

  “Specific to Pride and Heritage months, we’re focused on building assortments that are celebratory and joyous with wide-ranging relevance, being mindful of timing, placement and presentation,” he told investors.

  “Our goal is to ensure we continue to celebrate moments that are special to our guests while acknowledging that, every day, for millions of people, they want Target to serve as a refuge in their daily lives.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 21:00

• "We Need To Deal With The Debt" – Goldman CEO Warns Interest Costs On America's Ballooning Borrowings Means "Issues Down The Road"
  “We Need To Deal With The Debt” – Goldman CEO Warns Interest Costs On America’s Ballooning Borrowings Means “Issues Down The Road”

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Goldman Sachs CEO David M. Solomon is the latest business leader to sound the alarm on the Biden administration’s deficit spending, which comes as the cost of making interest payments on America’s ballooning government debt has exceeded spending in both the critical sectors of defense and Medicare.

  “I think the level of debt in the United States [and] the level of spending is something that we need a sharper focus on and more dialogue around than what we’ve seen,” the investment banking chief told Bloomberg Television on Monday, adding that if something isn’t done to rein it the spending, it could create problems.

  

  His remarks come as the cost of servicing America’s ballooning government debt reached $514 billion for the first seven months of the current fiscal year, becoming the second largest line item in the budget, and surpassing both the bills for national defense and Medicare spending.

  The latest monthly statement from the U.S. Treasury—released on May 8—shows that the $514 billion spent on net interest so far this fiscal year has surpassed spending on both national defense ($498 billion) and Medicare ($465 billion).

  Interest spending—now the fastest growing part of the budget—is currently greater than all the money spent on education ($128 billion), transportation ($70 billion), and veterans ($183 billion) combined.

  The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) predicts that, by 2051, spending on interest will be the largest line item in the budget. Currently, only Social Security spending ($837 billion) is greater than what’s being forked over to service the nation’s growing debt.

  “Rising debt will continue to put upward pressure on interest rates. Without reforms to reduce the debt and interest, interest costs will keep rising, crowd out spending on other priorities, and burden future generations,” CRFB said in a statement.

  It comes as a number of economists, business leaders, and lawmakers have issued warnings about out-of-control deficit spending that adds to the debt load.

  House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said in October—the first month of the 2024 fiscal year—that it was already well past time to establish a bipartisan commission to tackle the federal government’s $34.6 trillion debt.

  “The consequences if we don’t act now are unbearable,” he said at the time. Despite his calls for such a commission, the project remains stuck in limbo.

  Many Democrats and left-leaning groups oppose the commission because they fear it would recommend cuts to Social Security, while some Republicans have expressed reluctance out of concern it would be a backdoor way to raise taxes.

  No Longer a Pandemic

  In his remarks to Bloomberg Television on Monday, Mr. Solomon said that some of the U.S. government’s massive debt-fueled spending in recent years may have been justified to prevent the economy from crashing during the COVID-19 lockdowns. However, he decried the fact that even though the pandemic is no longer a factor, the spending spree continues.

  “The spending levels … are continuing at a pace that I think is raising our debt level and creating issues for us down the road,” he warned.

  President Joe Biden in March unveiled a sweeping $7.3 trillion budget blueprint, which includes raising the corporate income tax rate to 28 percent from 21 percent, and forcing those with wealth of $100 million to pay at least 25 percent of their income in taxes.

  The blueprint was panned by Mr. Johnson, who said it reflected an “insatiable appetite for reckless spending.”

  Deficit spending in the United States hit $1.7 trillion in 2023, or 6.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to a recent report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The agency estimated that deficit spending would grow to 8.5 percent of GDP by 2054.

  At the same time, CBO projected that America’s debt-to-GDP ratio, which in the 1980s was around 35 percent of GDP, will grow to 166 percent by 2054, while warning that this would pose “significant risks” to America’s fiscal and economic outlook.

  Mr. Solomon said that America’s deficit spending is an issue that “deserves a lot of attention.”

  “Hopefully, there will be a lot more discussion as we move through the election and into the next administration,” he said, adding that, “we need to deal with the debt and the deficits.”

  ‘Dollar Will Be Worth Nothing’

  Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently sounded the alarm on massive government spending, warning that unless steps are taken to slow down the growth of the U.S. national debt, the dollar will become worthless.

  “We need to do something about our national debt or the dollar will be worth nothing,” Mr. Musk said in a post on X.

  The billionaire tech mogul was reacting to a post about Gen. H.R. McMaster’s warning that the world is on the cusp of World War III while calling for a doubling in defense spending to prepare for potential threats.

  Mr. Musk has repeatedly advocated for a negotiated end to the conflict in Ukraine to put a halt to the loss of life.

  Like Mr. Musk, billionaire investor Warren Buffett has also warned about the “important” consequences of deficit spending. However, the Berkshire Hathaway founder predicted that, when push comes to shove, the government would opt to raise taxes rather than reduce spending.

  “I think higher taxes are likely,” Mr. Buffett said on May 4 at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting in Omaha.

  “They may decide that some day, they don’t want the fiscal deficit to be this large because that has some important consequences. So they may not want to decrease spending and they may decide they’ll take a larger percentage of what we own, and we’ll pay it,” he said.

  

  Analysts at the University of Pennsylvania estimate that when the debt-to-GDP ratio hits around 200 percent, it will hit the point of no return—when no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could prevent the government from defaulting on its debt.

  JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has predicted that America’s debt-to-GDP ratio would “hockey stick” upward at some point, meaning rise sharply and become unsustainable after a period of relatively gradual increase.

  “It is a cliff. We see the cliff. It’s about 10 years out. We’re going 60 miles an hour,” Mr. Dimon said, speaking on a panel at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington at the end of January 2024.

  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also sounded the alarm on the Biden administration’s fiscal stance, warning that its massive deficit spending and ballooning public debt threaten to stoke inflation and—potentially—even spark financial chaos.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 20:20

• OpenAI 'Exploring' How To Responsibly Generate AI Porn
  OpenAI ‘Exploring’ How To Responsibly Generate AI Porn

  OpenAI, maker of ChatGPT, has recently disclosed plans that could revolutionize its technology’s applications, signaling a potential shift in its traditionally stringent content policies. According to draft documentation released last week, the company is exploring how to ‘responsibly’ introduce not-safe-for-work (NSFW) content through its platforms. The new policy is highlighted in a commentary note within the extensive Model Spec document, sparking a complex discussion about the future of AI in generating sensitive content, Wired reports.

  

  “We’re exploring whether we can responsibly provide the ability to generate NSFW content in age-appropriate contexts through the API and ChatGPT,” the note reads. “We look forward to better understanding user and societal expectations of model behavior in this area.”

  Current usage policies prohibit the generation of sexually explicit or even suggestive materials. However, the document suggests a nuanced consideration: the possibility of allowing NSFW content in age-appropriate contexts. This potential pivot is not about promoting explicit content indiscriminately but rather understanding societal and user expectations to guide model behavior responsibly.

  OpenAI is considering how its technology could responsibly generate a range of different content that might be considered NSFW, including slurs and erotica. But the company is particular about how sexually explicit material is described.

  In a statement to WIRED, company spokesperson Niko Felix said “we do not have any intention for our models to generate AI porn.” However, NPR reported that OpenAI’s Joanne Jang, who helped write the Model Spec, conceded that users would ultimately make up their own minds if its technology produced adult content, saying “Depends on your definition of porn.” -Wired

  The concern extends beyond the direct implications of NSFW content. Danielle Keats Citron, a law professor at the University of Virginia, has emphasized the broader societal repercussions, noting that intimate privacy violations can severely impact targeted individuals’ lives, restricting their opportunities and personal safety.

  Of course, there are already a lot of NSFW AI content generators using things like Stable Diffusion, many of which border on (or worse) virtual child exploitation that we’re sure this guy would defend.

  “Intimate privacy violations, including deepfake sex videos and other nonconsensual synthesized intimate images, are rampant and deeply damaging,” she said. “We now have clear empirical support showing that such abuse costs targeted individuals crucial opportunities, including to work, speak, and be physically safe.” According to Citron, OpenAI’s potential embrace of NSFW content is “alarming.”

  

  OpenAI’s announcement addresses an ongoing debate about the balance between technological innovation and ethical responsibility – particularly when it comes to setting precedents for how AI technologies might handle sensitive content in the future. The engagement with various stakeholders, as OpenAI spokesperson Grace McGuire told the outlet, noting that the Model Spec was an attempt to “bring more transparency about the development process and get a cross section of perspectives and feedback from the public, policymakers, and other stakeholders.”

  Earlier this year, OpenAI’s chief technology officer, Mira Murati, told The Wall Street Journal that she was “not sure” if the company would in future allow depictions of nudity to be made with the company’s video generation tool Sora.

  AI-generated pornography has quickly become one of the biggest and most troubling applications of the type of generative AI technology OpenAI has pioneered. So-called deepfake porn—explicit images or videos made with AI tools that depict real people without their consent—has become a common tool of harassment against women and girls. In March, WIRED reported on what appear to be the first US minors arrested for distributing AI-generated nudes without consent, after Florida police charged two teenage boys for making images depicting fellow middle school students. -Wired

  While OpenAI’s usage policies prohibit impersonation without permission, the decisions made by OpenAI could have far-reaching effects. Of course, they also realize that if they don’t compete in this space, someone else’s AI will simply dominate, leaving OpenAI as the gimp.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 20:00

• Citadel's Ken Griffin Tells Qatar Audience: American Campus Chaos Is "Anarchy"
  Citadel’s Ken Griffin Tells Qatar Audience: American Campus Chaos Is “Anarchy”

  On day one of the 2024 Qatar Economic Forum in Doha, Citadel’s Ken Griffin covered a wide range of hot-button issues. He criticized the Biden administration’s latest wave of Chinese tariffs, the ongoing campus crisis terrorizing American colleges and universities, global geopolitical tensions, and former President Trump’s potential comeback. 

  Griffin started the conversation by discussing soaring geopolitical risks from Eastern Europe to the Middle East to China. He warned, “We are living in a different world than what we fantasized just a few years ago.”

  “There are more tail risks that are harder to manage. That goes with this rise in geopolitical complexity,” Griffin said. As we must note, the surge in conflicts is a direct symptom of a world fracturing into a multi-polar state. 

  Bloomberg provided a live blog of the event via the ‘Top Live Blogs’ function on the Terminal. BBG journos noted that Griffin criticized the Biden administration for new tariffs, announced Tuesday, but well telegraphed for the last several days, on Chinese electric vehicles, advanced batteries, solar cells, steel, aluminum and medical equipment. He called the move a continuation of ‘incoherent economic policy,’ adding a Trump administration would restore America’s image abroad. 

  On the subject of the continued education crisis at American universities and colleges, of shady non-governmental organizations facilitating pro-Palestinian protests, he said:

  “What’s happening on campuses is not free speech, it’s anarchy.”

  He added:

  “Universities should be trying to encourage a constructive debate between students of different backgrounds.”

  Separately, in a Financial Times interview on Saturday, Griffin, who is one of Harvard’s most prominent donors, said the Ivy League school needs to embrace “Western values” and pointed out the chaos is a byproduct of a “cultural revolution.”

  Back in Doha, Griffin also commented on the geopolitical shitstorm in Eastern Europe between Russia and Ukraine, the Middle East between Israel and Hamas, and worsening Sino-US relations. 

  “There are just larger tails that didn’t exist seven or eight or 10 years ago,” he said, adding that the only way to mitigate risk is to construct portfolios with protection, capitalizing off tail risk events. 

  The billionaire, who founded the $63 billion hedge fund Citadel, then commented on Trump’s potential return to the White House, calling him a person who can’t be pushed. 

  “He will exude a level of strength that will help stabilize the world in these trying times,” the billionaire said. Bloomberg pointed out that he had yet to donate to the presidential campaign. 

  *   *   * 

  Watch here for the whole discussion: 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 19:40

• House Oversight Cmte Probing Biden Voter Mobilization Order
  House Oversight Cmte Probing Biden Voter Mobilization Order

  Authored by Ben Weingarten via RealClearPolitics,

  The House Oversight Committee is probing a controversial Biden administration executive order tasking the federal government with mobilizing voting groups it says are underrepresented.

  

  In a letter obtained by RealClearPolitics, Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) has requested that Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young produce a slew of documents and information concerning the development and implementation of Biden’s sweeping “Executive Order on Promoting Accessing to Voting” no later than May 28, and a staff-level briefing by May 20.

  The demand by the chairman of the House Oversight Committee signals an escalation in Republican lawmakers’ efforts to combat an effort they say may be unlawful, if not unconstitutional.

  The administration characterizes its efforts as a remedy to “discriminatory policies and other obstacles … disproportionally affect[ing]” black, non-English-speaking, handicapped, and other minority voters. EO 14019 calls on all federal agencies to develop and execute corrective plans to “promote voter registration and voter participation.”

  It instructs officials government-wide to consider “soliciting and facilitating approved, nonpartisan third-party organizations … to provide voter registration services on agency premises.”

  Seeing the order as potentially enabling “the executive branch to circumvent the legislative process,” Comer is asking Young to clarify the “constitutional or statutory authority the President relied on,” as well as all “White House and OMB documents and communications” pertaining to the drafting of it.

  In past oversight letters, including ones delivered in June 2022 by then-ranking Republicans on various committees, including Comer, members have also raised concerns that officials could violate the Hatch Act prohibiting their engagement in political activities in carrying out the order.

  Senate Republicans have also questioned whether the act violates the Antideficiency Act, which precludes federal agencies from using funds “for a purpose that Congress did not explicitly authorize” – namely “voter mobilization.”

  “Overreach by the federal government often leads to confusion and inconsistencies,” Comer also stated. He cites a recent letter from Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson to Attorney General Merrick Garland to illustrate this issue.

  The order mandates that relevant agencies seek to ensure “access to voter registration for eligible individuals in federal custody.”

  To satisfy that charge, the Magnolia State official notes that the U.S. Marshals Service is modifying contracts and/or intergovernmental agreements with jails “to provide voter registration materials and facilitate voting by mail,” and likewise that the Justice Department is working to “facilitate voter registration and mail voting for individuals in the custody of the Bureau of Prisons.”

  He says these efforts create “numerous opportunities for ineligible prisoners to be registered to vote in Mississippi.” Illegal aliens, Secretary Watson warns, may be among those receiving information on how to register to vote.

  The Biden administration issued EO 14019 in March 2021. Despite a raft of oversight requests from House Republicans of agencies within their respective committee jurisdictions, those agencies have largely withheld the strategic plans they were tasked with crafting and implementing, and information regarding the putatively non-partisan groups with which they have coordinated.

  The White House has rebuffed RealClearInvestigations in its efforts to solicit details about an order that Republicans characterize as little more than a taxpayer-funded Democrat get-out-the-vote effort.

  As RCI has previously reported, the Biden administration has sought to drive voter registration through agencies as diverse as the Departments of Labor, Housing and Urban Development via job training centers, public housing authorities, and child nutrition programs. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services has issued guidance calling for the agency to register voters at naturalization ceremonies.

  The Department of Education has blessed the use of “federal work-study funds to pay students for “supporting broad-based get-out-the-vote activities, voter registration,” and other activities.

  In January, over two dozen Pennsylvania legislators filed a federal lawsuit challenging the executive order. The Foundation for Government Accountability (FGA) – which has litigated with the Biden administration to pry loose documents concerning the order – submitted an amicus brief supportive of the suit, asserting that the agencies’ efforts have one thing in common: “They provide government welfare benefits and other services to groups of voters the vast majority of which have historically voted Democrat.”

  Republicans’ concerns over the order extend to the involvement of the third-party groups with which agencies were to consider coordinating. The order itself was built on a blueprint from progressive think-tank Democrats. In a since-deleted but still archived analysis, the outfit estimates that if fully implemented, the order could generate 3.5 million new or updated voter registrations annually – a significant figure given that recent presidential elections have been determined by thousands of votes across a few states.

  Dems as well as the American Civil Liberties Union have reportedly worked to implement the directive. Documents obtained by the Heritage Foundation’s Oversight Project and released earlier this month show that at a July 2021 listening session convened by the Biden administration, left-leaning activist groups encouraged some of the practices federal agencies would ultimately implement to carry out the directive, for example in targeting prospective voters in prisons and at naturalization ceremonies.

  “Every participant whose party affiliation or political donation history could be identified by the Oversight Project was identified as a Democrat except for one Green Party member,” the report noted.

  While the participants suggested efforts to target constituencies including criminals, immigrants, low-income families including those in public housing, and Native Americans, the Oversight Project observed that “There is no corresponding evidence of efforts [to] increase voter access and education in likely Republican constituencies.”

  As RCI has also recently reported, Democrats have made purportedly non-partisan voter registration targeting groups that vote disproportionately Democrat a linchpin of their plans to prevail in recent election cycles.

  “If the Biden Administration wants to use taxpayer-funded buildings to allow ‘nonpartisan third-party organizations’ to engage in voter registration,” Comer writes, “then the American people deserve to know who these organizations are.”

  The Oversight Committee’s pursuit of information regarding the order comes in the wake of the House Small Business Committee’s recent escalation of its own probe of the order.

  It recently subpoenaed two members of the Small Business Administration who refused to sit for transcribed interviews regarding an unprecedented partnership the agency inked with the Michigan Department of State. Under the relevant memorandum of understanding, among other things, state officials may conduct in-person voter registration at administration small business outreach events.

  Fox News reported that the Small Business Committee found that nearly all – “22 out of 25 such outreach events have taken place in counties with the highest population of Democratic National Committee target demographics.”

  In March, a federal judge dismissed the Pennsylvania legislators’ case challenging the executive order on grounds of standing.

  In late April, the legislators took their case to the Supreme Court, filing a petition for writ of certiorari and motioning for expedited consideration of their request in hopes the nation’s highest court will rule favorably on the matter of standing prior to the 2024 election.

  Ben Weingarten is a fellow of the Claremont Institute, senior contributor at The Federalist, and 2019 recipient of The Fund for American Studies’ Robert Novak Journalism Fellowship, under which he is currently working on a book on U.S.-China policy.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 19:20

• RFK Jr. And AV24 Super PAC Sue Meta, Alleging Election Interference
  RFK Jr. And AV24 Super PAC Sue Meta, Alleging Election Interference

  Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy and the super PAC backing him have filed a lawsuit against Meta Platforms, Inc., for election interference after it allegedly shadow banned the documentary “Who is Bobby Kennedy?” on Facebook and Instagram.

  

  American Values 2024 (AV24) announced in a May 13 press release that they have filed the lawsuit in a California district court for violating the First Amendment and “the American people’s fundamental right to a presidential election decided by voters, not by trillion-dollar corporations.”

  The complaint alleges that Meta “brazenly” censored speech supportive of Mr. Kennedy, then lied about its actions.

  According to the complaint, Meta “sent users messages threatening to suspend their accounts or otherwise punish them if they sought to watch, share or even post a link to the film. And they made good on these threats, disabling and suspending users who did so.”

  In addition, the complaint says that Meta stated that the film contained improper sexual or violent content.

  When users attempted to comment, those comments were removed, the complaint alleges.

  “Under the Support and Advocacy Clause of the Civil Rights Act of 1871, private companies and their officers and employees cannot in concert seek to prevent by force, threat or intimidation any citizen from engaging lawful speech supporting or advocating the election of a presidential candidate,” the complaint says.

  After AV24 released the documentary, it began trending on X. However, Facebook and Instagram—both Meta-owned—allegedly suppressed “the organic reach of content they don’t want to spread,” the PAC said in a May 6 press release.

  The film was also labeled with a COVID-19 vaccine disclaimer that referred users to other sources such as the Center for Disease Control’s website, the complaint said.

  In response to The Epoch Times’ request for comment on the allegation last week, a spokesperson for Meta stated, “The link was mistakenly blocked and was quickly restored once the issue was discovered.”

  In response to a request for an updated comment on the allegation of election interference in the lawsuit, a Meta spokesperson repeated the above statement.

  ‘Implausible’

  AV24 said in its lawsuit that Meta’s claim of accidental censorship is “implausible on its face” and contradicts “the numerous messages users received from Meta offering other, equally implausible explanations.”

  The documentary film, released May 3, is narrated by actor Woody Harrelson. The film is a biography of Mr. Kennedy aimed at providing a look into who he is as opposed to how mainstream media portray him.

  It begins with Mr. Kennedy quoting from various media reports that paint him as a “mentally disturbed” conspiracy theorist instead of an environmental attorney who took on corporate malfeasance.

  It discusses how he went after the pharmaceutical industry after meeting with mothers who believed vaccines injured their children.

  “Right now big oil funds the Republicans, Big Tech funds the Democrats, Big Pharma and the military contractors make sure to donate to both,” Mr. Kennedy said.

  “Who is liberal now and who is conservative? Who’s left and who’s right? These labels make less and less sense. I’ve been fighting corporate corruption for 40 years. I know how they work. I know how to clean them up. And that’s why I’m running for president.”

  The lawsuit referenced what it calls Meta’s “different agenda, tilting the playing field in favor of, at the behest of, and in collusion with the current Administration.” The alleged collusion between Meta and the Biden administration is documented in the Murthy v. Missouri case pending before the U.S. Supreme Court. 

  The legal complaint also referenced a recent Congressional report entitled “The Censorship-Industrial Complex: How top Biden White House officials coerced Big Tech to censor Americans, true information, and critics of the Biden Administration.”

  “With extensive quotation from internal Facebook emails and other documents, the report describes in detail ‘collusion’ between Facebook and the White House eventually resulting in an agreement by Facebook pursuant to which the platform would and did implement censorship policies suppressing critics of the Administration, particularly critics of its COVID policies, specifically including Mr. Kennedy,” the complaint says.

  AV24’s co-founder Tony Lyons said that polls show 20 percent of Americans aren’t aware that Mr. Kennedy is running for president, while another 30 percent have been fed misinformation about him and his policies.

  “Reaching those voters could change the outcome of the 2024 election,” Mr. Lyons said. “How are people supposed to find out that they have a viable alternative candidate—that they don’t have to vote for the lesser of two evils—when Meta is colluding with the Biden administration to block key channels for communicating with the American public?”

  ‘It Works’

  Jay Carson, former advisor to President Bill Clinton and now to Mr. Kennedy, produced the film.

  He stated in the documentary that during campaigns, big corporations hire writers in media like him to attack those who challenge their power.

  “Here is the way the playbook works: First they attack you broadly and they question your facts,” he said.

  “They say you’re lying and it’s ferocious. But if you keep on moving after that, they move on to character assassination. They take on who you are as a person. They dig up everything bad in your past and leak it to the press.”

  If this doesn’t work, Mr. Carson said, “they say you’re a liar.”

  If liar doesn’t work, they call their target an anti-semite and a racist.

  “No two slurs in America are worse than those,” Mr. Carson said. “No slur, except crazy. Crazy, or kook, or crank, or nutjob are their mainstays. That’s their nuclear option.

  “If they can get everyone to dismiss you as a wacko nutjob, everything you say is suspect and then they can get back to selling whatever thing it is you said might not be safe. And here’s the thing: It works.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 19:00

• Goldman Finds Commercial Power Demand In Virginia Explodes Higher As 'Next AI Trade' Soars
  Goldman Finds Commercial Power Demand In Virginia Explodes Higher As ‘Next AI Trade’ Soars

  All eyes are on the powering-up America theme as the surge in artificial intelligence sparks a nationwide boom in data center building. The urgent need to overhaul the nation’s power grid to meet the skyrocketing demand for electricity is now front and center. We pointed out earlier this month that data centers hiding in ‘spy country’ Northern Virginia will need a ‘reactor’s worth of power.’ 

  Continuing the focus on Virginia, a team of Goldman analysts led by Hongcen Wei revealed that commercial power demand across the state has exponentially surged, unlike anywhere else in the country. 

  

  Wei explained to clients, citing data from GS’ equity analysts, that “US power consumption growth will accelerate sharply to an annual average 2.4% pace in 2022-2030, boosted by data centers, AI, and EVs.” 

  As we noted in “The Next AI Trade,” “Everyone Is Piling Into The Next AI Trade,” and “The Next AI Trade Just Hit An All-Time High,” power demand across the US is set to rise dramatically through 2030 because of the proliferation of data centers, electrification trends, and reshoring efforts. 

  The analyst pointed out that an acceleration in power demand growth is set to eclipse GDP through the second half of the decade—this hasn’t happened in three decades.

  

  Wei’s analysis then focuses on commercial power consumption in Virginia, which has skyrocketed in the last several years as new data centers are hooked up to the local grid. Meanwhile, commercial power demand in ex-Virginia (or the rest of the US) remains laggard but is expected to rise in the coming years. 

  

  He noted, “The impact of data center developments is more difficult to observe directly within larger states, where more factors simultaneously impact power demand.” 

  In relation to all other forms of power demand in the state, commercial outstrips residential and industrial. 

  

  Using the statistical “doppelganger” method, Wei’s team found that data centers boosted Virginia’s power consumption by 2.2 gigawatts in 2023. This number will only increase, resulting in the need for increased nuclear power in the state or the adoption of small reactors near data centers. 

  

  The analyst concludes:

  “First, AI and data centers are boosting US power demand as market participants expect, especially in regions like Virginia. But the overall magnitude of the boost remains modest, compared to both the current level of US total power demand and the expected level of data center power demand in later years of the decade.” 

  In a separate note, Goldman’s Julia Masch shows the GS US Power Up America index (GSENEPOW) and GS Electrifcaion index (GSXEACDC) are powering higher but points out the GS Power Up Europe index (GSPIPOWR) has lagged behind. 

  

  Why is so much power needed? Well…

  

  For more clarity on where power demand surges are expected, Visual Capitalist’s Julie Peasley uses data from Cushman & Wakefield to visualize the top data center markets worldwide. 

  

  The ‘Powering Up America’ theme is red hot. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 18:40

• 1 In 8 US Adults Have Tried GLP-1 Obesity Medications, Poll Finds
  1 In 8 US Adults Have Tried GLP-1 Obesity Medications, Poll Finds

  Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

  One in eight American adults have used popular weight loss and diabetes drugs known as GLP-1 agonists, according to the latest KFF Health Tracking Poll.

  

  The survey, which involved nearly 1,500 adult participants and was carried out in late April, found that two-thirds of those currently using the drugs are doing so to manage diabetes or heart disease, while roughly four out of 10 are taking the medication primarily for weight loss.

  Approximately 6 percent of U.S. adults, equating to over 15 million people, are currently taking a prescribed medication from the GLP-1 agonist class of drugs, according to the poll.

  Other Key Findings

  Other key findings reveal that, among those who have ever taken GLP-1 agonists, 43 percent were diagnosed with diabetes by a doctor, 25 percent were diagnosed with heart disease, and 22 percent were told by a doctor within the last five years that they were overweight or obese.

  The reasons for using these drugs are nearly evenly split: 39 percent of Americans turn to GLP-1 agonists to treat a chronic condition, while 38 percent use them for weight loss. The remaining 23 percent rely on the drugs to address both chronic conditions and weight management.

  The poll also confirms media reports that the popularity of these drugs has surged over the past couple of years. According to the survey, 32 percent of adults now say they have heard “a lot” about GLP-1 agonists, an increase of 19 percent from July 2023.

  Despite their growing popularity, the poll noted that 54 percent of all adults who have taken GLP-1 drugs find it difficult to afford the cost. One in five adults who took the drugs said it was “very difficult” to afford them. While insurance sometimes covers part of the cost, even insured adults found the expenses challenging, with 53 percent reporting difficulties in bearing the costs.

  Ozempic, produced by Novo Nordisk, is listed at $935.77 for a monthly injection, while Wegovy is priced at $1,349.02 for a 28-day supply—both without health insurance.

  One in five adults aged 50-64 report having taken GLP-1 drugs at some point, a higher proportion compared to other age groups. Among this 50-64 age bracket, 15 percent indicate using these medications to treat chronic conditions, while 5 percent took them solely for weight loss purposes. Relatively few adults under 50 have taken GLP-1 drugs for managing chronic illnesses, but similar shares of 18-29 year olds (7 percent) and 30-49 year olds (6 percent) reveal using them for weight loss goals.

  Most Americans Want Medicare Coverage

  While some insurance providers offer coverage for GLP-1 agonist drugs, Medicare does not cover these medications if they are prescribed for weight loss purposes. The poll reveals that only 8 percent of adults aged 65 and older took a GLP-1 drug for a chronic condition, and 1 percent used it solely for weight loss. This is despite 37 percent of poll respondents aged 65 and above reporting that a doctor had informed them they were overweight or obese.

  Most poll respondents believe that Medicare should begin covering prescription drugs for weight loss (though the program is currently prohibited by law from doing so). In fact, 60 percent of adults who responded to the poll support Medicare providing coverage for such prescription medications.

  Several GLP-1 agonists are available on the U.S. market for people  with diabetes or who are obese, including Ozempic, Trulicity, Byetta, Victoza, Rybelsus, Adlyxin, and Bydureon. A similar class of medication called a GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist, such as Mounjaro, is also prescribed. Wegovy is a relatively newer GLP-1 agonist marketed specifically for those seeking to manage their weight.

  GLP-1 agonists work by mimicking the GLP-1 hormone naturally produced by the body. This hormone is secreted from the small intestine and is responsible for triggering insulin release, blocking glucagon secretion, and slowing stomach emptying. It also helps create a feeling of fullness after eating by affecting areas of the brain that process hunger and satiety signals.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 18:20

• Record Household Debt, Jump In Delinquencies Signal "Worsening Financial Distress", Fed Warns
  Record Household Debt, Jump In Delinquencies Signal “Worsening Financial Distress”, Fed Warns

  While the market remains focused on tomorrow’s CPI print, and to a lesser extent the April retail sales reports, which will both be released at 8:30am on May 15. we should flag another important report that doesn’t typically get a lot of attention: the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Report for 1Q 2024 which was just published, and where the latest data on credit card debt and delinquencies has recently been the most important part of the report.

  While we already know that in the latest monthly consumer credit report published by the Fed last week and covering the month of March, total consumer debt hit a record high (despite a sharp slowdown in credit card growth) even as the personal savings rate plunged to an all-time low, hardly a ringing endorsement for the strength of the US consumer…

  

  … today’s report provided more granular details which however did not change the conclusion: the US consumer is getting weaker, and while not in a crisis just yet, will get there soon enough.

  As the chart from the NY Fed shows, at the end of the first quarter, US household debt reached a record and more borrowers are struggling to keep up: overall US household debt rose to $17.69 trillion, the NYFed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit revealed (link here). That’s an increase of $184 billion, or 1.1%, from the fourth quarter.  

  

  Consumers have added $3.4 trillion in debt since the pandemic, and that increased debt bears much higher interest rates.

  And with both credit card rates and total credit at all time highs, the data corroborate the mounting financial pressures on American families in an age of elevated inflation. The persistent rise in the prices of essentials such as food and rent have strained household budgets, pushing people to borrow against their credit cards to pay for necessities.

  Total credit card debt stood at $1.12 trillion in the first quarter of 2024, according to the report (the number diverges from the monthly print reported last week by the NY Fed and which was much higher), but an increasing number of borrowers are behind on credit card payments. While down slightly sequentially according to this data set (if not the NY Fed’s other data set), the number in line with seasonal patterns of consumers paying debt incurred over the holidays. But as Bloomberg notes, credit card balances are up almost 25% from the first quarter of 2020.

  “Credit card balances usually rise in the second and third quarters and then they really tend to spike around the holidays in Q4,” Ted Rossman, a senior analyst at Bankrate, wrote in a note to clients. “With inflation and interest rates likely to remain elevated, there’s a very good chance credit card balances will surge to new highs later in 2024.”

  Meanwhile, in a blog post by NY Fed economists, they cautioned that “consumers facing a financial squeeze may be maxing out their credit cards and falling behind on payments” and added that “one observable factor that is strongly correlated with future delinquencies is a high credit card utilization rate.”

  

  “In the first quarter of 2024, credit card and auto loan transition rates into serious delinquency continued to rise across all age groups,” said Joelle Scally, Regional Economic Principal within the Household and Public Policy Research Division at the New York Fed. “An increasing number of borrowers missed credit card payments, revealing worsening financial distress among some households.”

  As of March, 3.2% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency. That remains still 1.5% points lower than the fourth quarter of 2019, but delinquency transition rates increased for all product types, according to the Fed. And also interest rates before covid were about 5% lower.

  

  In a separate post, economists at the St. Louis Fed pointed out that credit card delinquency rates are returning to historically more normal levels after pandemic-related government assistance programs pushed them to unusually low numbers. They added, however, that “present levels of credit card delinquency are greater than pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that a trend which began prior to the pandemic has accelerated.”

  About 121,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports last quarter, and approximately 4.8% of consumers held some debt in third-party collections. What is remarkable is that those consumers currently in collection have the highest number on record in collection amounts. Which means that once the delinquency train finally leaves the station, and creditors start collecting in earnings, the amount of debt in 3rd party collections will be literally off the chart!

  

  And the clearest hint that we are getting there, is that borrowers using more than 60% of their credit are falling into delinquency at a faster pace than before the pandemic, making up most of the increase in credit card delinquency rates. About a third of balances associated with borrowers using more than 90% of their credit became delinquent in the past year, compared to about 25% before the pandemic.

  

  What is most remarkable here is that despite a so-called end to the student loan repayment moratorium, it appears that not only is nobody repaying their student loans, but that debt issuers aren’t even bothering to make the delinquent debt as such (then again, it is difficult to determine how much of that debt is delinquent as missed federal student loan payments will not be reported to credit bureaus until the fourth quarter).

  

  The data also show a wide range in credit card utilization rates. About one in six credit card users are using at least 90% of their available credit. And an additional 11% are using between 60% and 90% of their available credit.

  The Fed researchers found younger borrowers and those with lower incomes are more apt to be financially stressed than older borrowers and those with higher incomes, who may have more credit available. “Millennials were the only group whose delinquencies exceeded their pre-pandemic rate,” New York Fed researchers wrote in a blog post.  

  

  The Fed’s report showed 6.9% of credit card debt transitioned to serious delinquency last quarter, up from 4.6% a year ago. And for credit card holders aged 18–29, 9.9% of balances were in serious delinquency.  

  

  Auto loan delinquencies are also higher as the average monthly car payment jumped to $738 in 2023. Close to 2.8% of auto loans are now 90 or more days delinquent — that equates to more than 3 million cars. Auto loans are the second-largest debt category following mortgage debt, with $1.62 trillion outstanding.

  The biggest household debt holding is for housing. It accounts for more that 70% of the total. That debt is performing well, but homeowners are increasingly tapping their accumulated home equity in the form of a home equity loans, meanwhile new mortgage originations have tumbled near record low levels as a result of the soaring rates…

  

  … which also means that foreclosures are starting to tick up.

  

  Meanwhile, on the other side of the table, some $16 billion in additional home equity loans was originated — the biggest increase since 2008 — and $37 billion was added over the past year. Homeowners have about $580 billion in outstanding home equity credit available, the most in about 15 years.

  So what to make of this information, especially when even the Fed is warning that the US consumer is in increasingly weak shape.

  Well, credit card debt has increased sharply in recent quarters. When it surpassed $1.0tn for the first time in history in 2Q 2023, alarm bells went off in some circles, although according to Bank of America’s (especially sanguine) economists, the surge in credit card debt is partly just a normalization, after consumers used their fiscal stimulus windfalls to pay down their balances in 2020-21. Moreover, they note that even setting aside the structural drift away from cash, credit card debt should scale up with the nominal economy. As a share of disposable income, total credit card debt in 4Q 2023 was still below its pre-pandemic level.

  

  Instead of the total credit number, BofA urges clients to pay more attention to credit card delinquencies: the total amount of delinquent credit card debt stood at $110bn as of 4Q 2023, up 42%; that number grew even higher in Q1 2024.

  To put these numbers in context, BofA offers two approaches: first, why you shouldn’t worry too much

  • How much will surging delinquencies weigh on consumer spending? The good news is that credit cards make up only 6.5% of total consumer debt. Despite the recent increase, delinquent credit card debt accounts for only 0.5% of total disposable income.
  • Meanwhile, mortgages make up 70% of consumer debt and are by far the biggest swing factor for total delinquencies. A large share of households is locked into low fixed-rate 30-year mortgages. This has kept mortgage delinquencies, and total delinquent debt, very low by historical standards, and made consumer spending more resilient to Fed hikes than in the past. Even when student loan delinquencies finally do normalize, that would not move the needle a great deal assuming mortgage debt remains stable.

  And then, here is why you should worry:

  • So far so good, but the picture gets a little more concerning at the lower end of the income distribution. Lower-income households are less likely to be homeowners, so they are benefiting less from low fixed mortgage rates. Meanwhile, they are more likely to also be delinquent on their credit cards. From this fact, one can conclude that credit card delinquencies appear to be higher among younger consumers (who would, on average, have lower income.

  

  • Further, delinquencies might understate the issues consumers are facing due to credit card debt. There is likely a large group of consumers who are paying their minimum balances, and so are not delinquent, but are unable to pay the full balance, and so are paying high APRs (annual percentage rates) on the overdue amounts. APRs have risen significantly due to Fed hikes, increasing the strain on such consumers.

  More in the full BofA note available to pro subscribers.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 18:00

• Snyder: "Demographic Winter Is Coming" As Fertility Rates Plummet All Over The Globe
  Snyder: “Demographic Winter Is Coming” As Fertility Rates Plummet All Over The Globe

  Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

  Fertility rates have fallen way below replacement level throughout the entire industrialized world, and this is starting to cause major problems all over the globe.  Aging populations are counting on younger generations to take care of them as they get older, but younger generations are not nearly large enough to accomplish that task.  Meanwhile, there aren’t enough qualified young workers in many fields to replace the expertise of older workers that are now retiring.  Sadly, this is just the beginning.  As I discuss in my new book entitled “Chaos”, if fertility rates continue to drop we could potentially be facing an unprecedented global population collapse in the decades ahead. 

  

  This has become so evident that even the mainstream media is starting to do stories about this.  In fact, an economist that was just interviewed by the Wall Street Journal is warning that “demographic winter is coming”…

  Fertility is falling almost everywhere, for women across all levels of income, education and labor-force participation. The falling birthrates come with huge implications for the way people live, how economies grow and the standings of the world’s superpowers.

  In high-income nations, fertility fell below replacement in the 1970s, and took a leg down during the pandemic. It’s dropping in developing countries, too. India surpassed China as the most populous country last year, yet its fertility is now below replacement.

  “The demographic winter is coming,” said Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, an economist specializing in demographics at the University of Pennsylvania.

  Here in the United States, if we want to maintain a stable population we need the fertility rate to be at 2.1 or above.

  Unfortunately, our fertility rate dropped to just 1.62 last year, which was an all-time record low…

  In the U.S., a short-lived pandemic baby boomlet has reversed. The total fertility rate fell to 1.62 last year, according to provisional government figures, the lowest on record.

  Had fertility stayed near 2.1, where it stood in 2007, the U.S. would have welcomed an estimated 10.6 million more babies since, according to Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire.

  Our native-born population has been in decline for quite some time.

  The only reason why the U.S. population as a whole has not been shrinking is because of the tremendous amount of immigration that has been happening.

  But even though it is not shrinking, the U.S. population has been rapidly getting older, and it is being projected that just six years from now seniors will actually outnumber children for the first time in our entire history…

  Seniors are set to outnumber children for the first time in American history within six years, as experts warn that the country is about to struggle with a dramatically aging population.

  The ‘silver tsunami’ has already seen the burden on working age people double since 1960 when there were six workers for every over-65.

  Needless to say, seniors are counting on all the rest of us to fund Social Security and Medicare.

  But there are way too few of us, and so a day of reckoning for those programs is quickly approaching…

  Actuaries warned last year that Social Security’s trust fund is expected to be depleted by 2034, with spending on welfare and Medicare predicted to rise from 9.1 percent of US GDP to 11.5 in just 12 years.

  And America’s changing age profile means there will be just 2.75 working-age people for every dependent-age person by 2030 when children are included.

  Of course it isn’t just the U.S. that is dealing with such issues.

  In Japan, South Korea and China, fertility rates are even lower than they are in the United States…

  The problem is not confined to the US with most developed nations experiencing an aging population including Japan whose population is expected to shrink 30 percent by 2070 when four-in-ten will be over 65.

  The situation is so stark in South Korea that Oxford University professor David Coleman predicted the entire country would be extinct at current rates by 2750.

  And even China, which recently lost its status as the world’s most populous nation to India, is now shrinking at a rate of nearly a million people a year.

  And fertility rates are also way below replacement level all over Europe…

  The projected fertility rates in Central, Eastern, and Western European countries are all below the global average estimated for 2050 and 2100, and are already lower than what is needed to sustain population growth.

  The total fertility rate in Western Europe is projected to fall from 1.53 in 2021 to 1.44 in 2050 and 1.37 in 2100.

  Italy, Spain, and Andorra were projected to have the lowest fertility rates by then.

  So what is causing this?

  As I have warned my readers for many years, sperm counts have dropped to catastrophically low levels all over the planet.

  If sperm counts continue to decline at the rate they have been, eventually most males will be infertile.

  Infertility is also at frightening levels among our young women.  I am sure that most of you know couples that desperately want to have children but have been unable to do so.

  Meanwhile, our culture has become rabidly anti-child and rabidly anti-family, and as a result there are vast hordes of young people that have decided that they never want to be parents.

  And thanks to the global reach of our entertainment industry, we are constantly exporting that culture to the rest of the world.

  So what we are witnessing should not be a surprise to any of us.

  We are simply reaping what we have sown.

  There are about 8 billion people living on our planet today.

  But it won’t stay that way for long.

  Population decline has already become a major political issue in nations all over the globe, and during the years ahead vast numbers of people will be wiped out by wars, pestilences, famines and natural disasters.

  Humanity has become incredibly selfish and self-centered, and as a result we have stopped caring about the future.

  All throughout human history, successful societies have always greatly valued marriage, family and children.

  But now we have embraced “new values”, and we are rapidly destroying the bright future that we could have had.

  *  *  *

  Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 17:40

• Putin Plotting 'Physical Attacks' On West, UK Intelligence Warns, Amid Spate Of Mystery Arsons
  Putin Plotting ‘Physical Attacks’ On West, UK Intelligence Warns, Amid Spate Of Mystery Arsons

  A top British intelligence official has issued a new alarmist warning concerning the ‘Russian threat’ to the West. Anne Keast-Butler, who for the last year has headed up the UK’s GCHQ, or signals intelligence operations (which is the equivalent of America’s NSA), has warned in her first major speech that President Putin is plotting “physical attacks” against Western targets.

  Addressing cyber security experts in Birmingham, the GCHQ director claimed that Moscow is busy “nurturing and inspiring” groups of cyber attackers, and is even “in some cases seemingly coordinating physical attacks against the West.”

  

  She said that alongside Russia, China poses an “epoch-defining” risk to long-term UK national security as well. She admitted that currently China is taking up “more resource… than any other single mission” at GCHQ.

  But ultimately she focused the speech on British intelligence being “increasingly concerned about growing links between the Russian intelligence services and proxy groups to conduct cyber-attacks – as well as suspected physical surveillance and sabotage operations.”

  She also said at a moment the major new Kharkiv offensive is underway that “Putin has not given up on his maximalist goal of subjugating the population of Ukraine.”

  Her dire assessment comes as the British government is seeking to crack down on Russian diplomatic sites in the UK which are suspected of being dual Russian intelligence hubs.

  There have also been recent new accusations of specific attacks on UK infrastructure being linked to Russia. For example The Telegraph writes that “Last week, a British man was charged with an arson attack in London and accused by prosecutors of working for Wagner Group, the Russian paramilitary organization.”

  The same report notes that “Russia has long been accused of protecting cyber gangs that target Western organizations, allowing them to operate with relative impunity as they carry out sophisticated hacks.”

  “Last week, the National Crime Agency named Dmitry Khoroshev, a Russian national, as the person behind LockBit – a ransomware group that had stolen hundreds of millions of pounds from businesses,” The Telegraph continues.

  There are other locations in Europe where recent ‘mystery fires’ or suspected sabotage attacks have occurred, raising the suspicions of NATO officials.

  🇷🇺NATO ACCUSES RUSSIA OF COVERT OPERATIONS WITH GANGSTERS

  NATO intelligence has warned of suspected Russian arson and sabotage in the US, UK, and EU, using local gangsters to disrupt arms shipments to Ukraine.

  Accusations involve arson at key sites:

  ⁠•⁠ ⁠ London warehouse… pic.twitter.com/mWBAY1uAPv

  — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 12, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Days ago, The Daily Mail produced a highly speculative report which somewhat sensationally points the finger at “gangsters” hired by Moscow to “set Europe alight”: 

  Intelligence chiefs have warned ministers they fear Britain and other key Ukrainian allies are being targeted by Russian saboteurs following a series of suspicious incidents in recent months.

  These include a wave of fires at arms factories and military-related industrial sites in the West that are supplying Ukraine. There have also been attacks on computer systems, train derailments and even jamming of satellite signals for civil air flights.

  Last night [or last Friday night], a senior British security source said Western intelligence agencies feared a spate of industrial fires were connected to Moscow, saying ‘the b******s’ were trying to set Europe alight.

  ‘Lots of fires that we thought were accidents and unconnected have turned out to be connected,’ he said. 

  This source added that intelligence chiefs had warned ministers that Moscow was increasingly hiring gangsters and far-Right extremists to carry out attacks on Western interests.

  The aforementioned words of GCHQ director Keast-Butler seem to provide new confirmation that this is the view of British intelligence – that at the very least some of these incidents are being seen as the result of Moscow-linked sabotage.

  Likely many of these industrial incidents and fires (going back “months” we are told) could be accidents, and it’s unclear the degree to which there’s been any actual confirmed sabotage or arson. Still, it has set off some degree of panic in the top echelons of the UK government: 

  One Cabinet Minister insisted he could not discuss the suspected sabotage and arson attacks, even on a background basis, ‘for national security reasons’.

  But Tory MP Bob Seely, a Russian-speaking specialist on disinformation and member of the foreign affairs committee, said that Britain must wake up to the threat.

  ‘We need to understand that the Russian state believes it is in conflict with the UK and other leading Western nations,’ he added.

  ‘We have to defend ourselves. We don’t know the true scale of these operations. Some look amateurish – but they will get more sophisticated. They are in part for propaganda purposes to show that [Vladimir] Putin is hitting back at the West but also intended to stretch our security forces.’

  Again, all of these accusations have little in the way of verifiable evidence (or at least it hasn’t been made public). 

  

  Below is a key incident in Berlin as reported by The Daily Mail:

  Earlier this month, another fire broke out at a factory near Berlin run by a firm making air defense systems supplied to Ukraine.

  It took 223 firefighters to tackle the inferno, with billowing clouds of black smoke and fears of toxic contamination. Police said they suspected ‘negligent arson’ since there were ‘no indications of sabotage or an attack’.

  The wave of suspected Kremlin attacks go far wider than attacks on military supplies. Sweden, which joined Nato after the invasion of Ukraine, is investigating whether state-backed sabotage lies behind a series of train derailments.

  Poland – a key supporter of Kyiv and arms supply route -– disrupted a network of saboteurs thought to be planning an attack on their rail system.

  The Economist has made the same accusation in a headline this week that reads Russia is ramping up sabotage across Europe: The Kremlin believes it is in a shadow war with NATO. Here’s how the magazine described the same Berlin fire:

  The fire that broke out in the Diehl Metall factory in the Lichterfelde suburb of Berlin on May 3rd was not in itself suspicious. The facility, a metals plant, stored sulphuric acid and copper cyanide, two chemicals that can combine dangerously when ignited. Accidents happen. What raised eyebrows was the fact that Diehl’s parent company makes the IRIS-T air-defence system which Ukraine is using to parry Russian missiles. There is no evidence that this fire was an act of sabotage. If the idea is plausible it is because there is ample evidence that Russia’s covert war in Europe is intensifying.

  Interestingly, police have cited “negligent arson” as the cause for the disaster, which at one point caused area evacuations on fears of poison gas clouds as a result of the large fire.

  So apparently there are shadowy teams of Russian-backed saboteurs going around trying to derail trains and blow up manufacturing sites. While anything is possible – especially after over two years of horrific, grinding war in Ukraine – not one of these saboteurs has been caught in the act, other than the pair which allegedly surveilled an American military base.

  Several Britons charged in a plot to burn down a warehouse of a Ukrainian shipping company in East London, allegedly on orders of Russia’s Wagner Group. https://t.co/BbohaCLCvo

  — Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) April 26, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  There’s as yet no ‘smoking gun’ – despite these loud warnings from NATO officials. However, some suspects have reportedly been rounded up:

  In April alone a clutch of alleged pro-Russian saboteurs were detained across the continent. Germany arrested two German-Russian dual nationals on suspicion of plotting attacks on American military facilities and other targets on behalf of the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence agency. Poland arrested a man who was preparing to pass the GRU information on Rzeszow airport, the most important hub for military aid to Ukraine. Britain charged several men over an earlier arson attack in March on a Ukrainian-owned logistics firm in London whose Spanish depot was also targeted. The men are accused of aiding the Wagner Group, a mercenary group that has been active in Ukraine and is now under the GRU’s control.

  Earlier this month Britain did expel a Russian defense attaché from the country, accusing the official of being an undeclared intelligence officer under diplomatic cover. In this case too, the government hasn’t made the basis for its suspicions public.

  The body of reporting which alleges Putin is ultimately behind these ‘sabotage plots’ has grown over the last several weeks:

  Mysterious accidents at US, ally’s defense facilities spark sabotage fears https://t.co/cD9dmwV0Be

  — Newsweek (@Newsweek) April 19, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Throughout the war in Ukraine, Russia has also seen dozens of mysterious fires break out at industrial and defense-related sites and factories. In some causes the Kremlin has blamed West-backed Ukrainian saboteurs. Is Putin now returning the favor against Europe? 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 17:20

• Will Tariffs Outweigh CPI?
  Will Tariffs Outweigh CPI?

  Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

  Markets shrugged off high headlines on PPI, for a variety of valid reasons.

  Now we can move on to CPI (where I see the “whisper number” as a lower than expectations print).

  I’m more focused on tariffs.

  My recollection of tariffs was that far more economists reacted negatively to the initial round of tariffs imposed by President Trump in 2018.

  I figured I’d check with ChatGPT if my perception was correct.

  The media reaction to President Trump’s tariffs in 2018 was largely negative, with widespread criticism from economists, business groups, and various sectors impacted by the tariffs.

  1.  Economists’ View: The vast majority of economists believed that the tariffs would harm the U.S. economy. In a March 2018 Reuters survey, almost 80% of economists stated that the steel and aluminum tariffs would be detrimental, with none predicting economic benefits​ (Wikipedia)​. Many economists and organizations, including over 1,000 who wrote a warning letter, compared the tariffs to historical policy mistakes like the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which contributed to the Great Depression​ (Wikipedia)​.

  2.  Economic Impact: Analyses indicated that the tariffs led to increased costs for U.S. consumers and businesses. A study found that by December 2018, the tariffs had reduced U.S. real income by $1.4 billion per month and increased consumer costs by $3.2 billion per month​ (Wikipedia)​. The prices of intermediate goods rose by 10% to 30%, and the tariffs were equated to a significant tax increase, potentially offsetting the benefits of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts​ (Tax Foundation)​.

  3.  Business and Industry Reaction: The Council on Foreign Relations highlighted the chaos and negative market reactions following the announcement of the tariffs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell significantly after the tariffs were announced, reflecting concerns about their impact on the global trading system and U.S. economic stability​ (Council on Foreign Relations)​.

  4.  Agriculture Sector: U.S. farmers were particularly critical of the tariffs due to the retaliatory measures from other countries, which significantly hurt their exports. The Trump administration attempted to mitigate this by announcing $12 billion in emergency relief for farmers, but this was met with mixed reactions. Many farmers and legislators criticized the relief as insufficient and labeled it as temporary “welfare” rather than a solution to the underlying trade issues​ (DW)​.

  Overall, the media and expert reaction to Trump’s tariffs in 2018 was predominantly negative, citing increased costs, economic disruption, and inadequate relief measures for affected industries.

  ChatGPT (version 4o specifically) seems to “think” that my recollection was accurate.

  I am not sure what it means that not only were the original tariffs kept in place long after the election (and are still in place), but we’ve now added to them?

  While I agree, many of these are useful and necessary, I do think that we’ve been our own worst enemy in some cases like solar panels (see With “Exceptionalism” Like This, Who Needs Enemies).

  • I am not sure how the tariffs won’t add to inflation and create some possible supply issues.

  • I am not sure how easy it will be for China to get around these by utilizing facilities in countries like Mexico? If they can, and are more incentivized than they already have been, it will continue to slow on-shoring and near-shoring efforts (and make them more expensive to execute).

  • I am not sure that China will come back with a “measured” response?

  I think the risk of renewed serious inflation has been put back on the table. It isn’t going to impact CPI tomorrow, but in 3 months? 6 months?

  

  I see the longer term benefits of creating an economy that is more secure (and am fully on board with that), but that doesn’t mean we haven’t created new and additional inflation risks.

  Do I become bearish on yields today, or wait until after what seems to be a widely expected post CPI rally?

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/14/2024 – 17:00

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