Apr 16

Today’s News 16th April 2021

  • Beijing Displaces New York To Become The World's Billionaire Capital
    Beijing Displaces New York To Become The World’s Billionaire Capital

    For the first time in seven years, New York City has lost its title as the world’s billionaire capital.

    Statista’s Niall McCarthy reports that in 2020, the Big Apple was displaced by Beijing which recorded a net gain of 33 billionaires. Beijing is now in top spot with 100 individuals worth a billion dollars or more, narrowly ahead of New York’s 99.

    Infographic: Beijing Displaces New York To Become The Billionaire Capital | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The findings come from the 2021 Forbes World’s Billionaires list which shows that a quarter of its 2,755 members live in just 10 cities with more than 10 percent resident in just four Chinese metropolises. Along with Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hangzhou also make the list of the world’s top-10 billionaire capitals. Hong Kong, a special administrative region of China, is also present on the list and it comes third with 80 billionaires.

    Even though New York is in second place, the collective worth of its billionaire population amounts to $560.5 billion, beating Beijing’s collective $484.3 billion. Zhang Yiming is the richest resident in the Chinese capital with a net worth of $35.6 billion while Michael Bloomberg is New York’s wealthiest inhabitant with a $59 billion fortune.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 04/16/2021 – 02:45

  • UK Councils Bring Back "COVID Marshal" To Report People For Not Social-Distancing
    UK Councils Bring Back “COVID Marshal” To Report People For Not Social-Distancing

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    UK council authorities are putting more ‘COVID marshals’ onto the streets to report people to the police for not properly social distancing.

    After the government lifted some lockdown restrictions on Monday, bars and restaurants were allowed to open outside.

    This prompted the media to once again hysterically point to footage of people daring to enjoy themselves in order to whip up another contrived panic over a ‘4th wave’ of the virus returning despite Britain having one of the lowest case rates in the world amongst major countries.

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    Local government immediately responded by vowing to put more state spies on the streets.

    “Councils across England have boosted the number of Covid-19 marshals patrolling city centres after scenes of overcrowding since outdoor drinking and dining resumed on Monday,” reports the Times.

    The marshals have no enforcement power, so their role almost entirely depends on lecturing people about their behavior and then snitching on them to police if they fail to comply.

    As we previously highlighted, when the second lockdown was implemented in the UK last autumn, COVID marshals were dispatched to ensure pubs and clubs were closed.

    Photographs from the patrols showed marshals peering into windows and letterboxes to ensure gatherings or private parties were not taking place.

    Images from London on Monday also showed masked security guards with attack dogs waiting to deal with any trouble caused by overcrowding as shops re-opened.

    This is all apparently part of the process of regaining our freedom!

    *  *  *

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 04/16/2021 – 02:00

  • Mass Casualty Incident At FedEx Facility In Indianapolis
    Mass Casualty Incident At FedEx Facility In Indianapolis

    Update (0151ET): FedEx Corporation has released the following statement about the shooting at their FedEx Ground facility near the Indianapolis airport:

    “We are aware of the tragic shooting at our FedEx Ground facility near the Indianapolis airport. Safety is our top priority, and our thoughts are with all those who are affected. We are working to gather more information and are cooperating with investigating authorities.”

    * * * 

    Update (0141ET): Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department (IMPD) spokesperson: “We have multiple people with injuries consistent with gunshot wounds. We have others that have been transported to various hospitals…”

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    Indianapolis News WISH-TV reports Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department (IMPD) received reports of an active shooter around 11:10 pm local time Thursday at a FedEx facility in Indianapolis. 

    The incident was reported at the FedEx facility in the 8900 block of Mirabel Road in Indianapolis, near Indianapolis International Airport.

    Dispatchers declared a “mass casualty, Level 1,” which means the incident involved less than ten surviving victims. 

    IMPD has yet to release information on how many people were shot or their conditions. There’s also no information if the shooter is in custody. 

    Here’s the IMPD scanner audio of shots fired at the FedEx facility. The dispatcher said at least ten shots were fired from the entrance or inside the facility. One caller (from inside the facility’s control room) told dispatchers she had no visual on the suspect but heard the shots. 

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    A massive police presence is seen outside the FedEx facility. 

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    Local news Fox 59’s Courtney Crown spoke with a family member of one of the victims who the gunman shot. 

    “She called as I was asleep at home. She said there was a shooting in the FedEx. So we just drove from Brownsburg,” said Parminder Singh, the uncle of one of the victims.

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    A witness describes the shooting spree to reporters. 

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    Crown interviewed the husband of a FedEx employee who was in the facility during the time of the incident.

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    Sacramento journalist Matthew Keys said, “police initially received a report of a person with a “machine gun” firing into parked cars at the Federal Express facility in Indianapolis, then entering the facility where the suspect continued shooting.” 

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    Keys said as many as five people were shot at the FedEx facility. He also said the “suspect involved in Federal Express mass shooting dead of a self-inflicted gunshot wound.” 

    *This story is developing… 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 04/16/2021 – 00:53

  • China's Economy Grows By A Record 18.3% In Q1; It's Not Enough
    China’s Economy Grows By A Record 18.3% In Q1; It’s Not Enough

    China’s economy grew by a record 18.3% in the first three months of 2021, its fastest annual growth rate in history reflecting the weak comparison to the lockdown period in early 2020. However, in keeping with the recent theme of China’s slowing credit impulse, the GDP print wasn’t nearly enough and disappointed markets which were expecting an 18.5% number.

    The Chinese slowdown was even more visible in the quarter-on-quarter growth which slowed to just 0.6% from 2.6% in the previous three months – the second lowest quarterly growth rate since the financial crisis with the sole exception of the covid crash quarter a year ago, while the picture in the monthly data dump was mixed at best.

    China’s expansion was supported by household consumption, which had previously lagged behind the wider recovery but is expected to play a greater role in driving growth this year. Retail sales beat expectations to add 34.2% in March, rebounding from a period of lockdowns a year earlier. Industrial production also boosted growth, with the metric adding 24.5% in the first quarter and alongside booming exports has helped prop up growth over the past year, it did, however, miss expectations in March and only rose 14.1% year-on-year.

    Other data was also mostly disappointing with both industrial production and fixed asset investment missing, while only retail sales beat:

    • March industrial production came in at +14.1% yoy, well below the 18.0% consensus forecast. Based on IP by major product data, cement production decelerated to 33.1% yoy in March from 61.1% yoy growth in January-February; steel product production grew 20.9% yoy in March vs. 23.6% yoy in January-February; electricity production decelerated to 17.4% yoy, from 19.5% in January-February.
    • Fixed investment growth also also slowed in March. FAI growth was +25.6%Y/Y in Q1 2021, below market expectations of 26.0% On single month basis FAI growth was +19.4% yoy in March (vs. +35.0% yoy in January-February).
    • Retail sales were the only bright spot and beat expectations.  March retail sales growth was 34.2% Y/Y vs. +33.8% in January-February and above the 28.0% consensus. Still, automobile sales growth slowed to +48.7% yoy (vs. +77.6% yoy in January-February).
    • The nationwide unemployment rate dropped to 5.3% in March, vs. 5.4% in January-February; and was at 5.3% for the 31 major cities in March, vs. 5.5% in January-February.
    • China Jan.-March Property Development investment rose 25.6% Y/y
      • Jan.-March property sales value rises 88.5% y/y to 3.84t yuan
      • Jan.-March home sales value rises 95.5% y/y to 3.51t yuan
      • Jan.-March property sales area rises 63.8% y/y to 360m sqm
      • Jan.-March home sales area rises 68.1% y/y to 323m sqm

    The Chinese recovery from the pandemic also helped it dominate global trade, with exports rising every month since June last year. In March, exports added 30% in dollar terms compared with the same month a year earlier.

    In light of China’s recent aggressive deleveraging which has pushed China’s CSI300 just shy of dipping below the 200DMA, focus has shifted to the prospect of rate rises, with signs of overheating across parts of the economy despite persistently low consumer price inflation. The government is trying to curb leverage across its property sector, as well as rein in record rates of steel production following a construction boom.

    Several high-ranking officials have warned about the risks of high asset prices in recent months. Guo Shuqing, China’s top banking regulator, said in March that the country was exposed to “bubbles” in international markets and its own real estate sector.

    And sure enough, with China’s CSI300 down 15% since hitting a record high in February, the overall economic direction points to an ongoing, broadening slowdown in China’s economy whose peak hit some time ago. That probably explains, why National Bureau of Statistics spokeswoman Liu Aihua talked up the recovery, especially among consumers, though she also flagged sectors such as services industries, smaller business and young workers who all need ongoing support.

    “Generally speaking, the national economy in the first quarter presented continued momentum of stable recovery,” China’s National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement.  “However, we must be aware that the Covid-19 epidemic is still spreading globally and the international landscape is complicated with high uncertainties and instabilities.”

    Markets were choppy on the data release with the CSI 300 Index falling as much as 0.6%, and briefly sliding below the 200DMA key support level, while the Shanghai Composite reversed its early losses to gain 0.2%. The benchmark 10-year sovereign bond yield fell 1 basis point to 3.166%; the onshore yuan lost 0.17% against the dollar.

    Asian stocks traded slightly lower as China’s record economic growth failed to inspire new investment in the region’s equity markets. Across the Pacific, US 10Y yields were unchanged as were US equity futures.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 04/16/2021 – 00:11

  • Rule By Fiat: When The Government Does Whatever It Wants
    Rule By Fiat: When The Government Does Whatever It Wants

    Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “We are fast approaching the stage of the ultimate inversion: the stage where the government is free to do anything it pleases, while the citizens may act only by permission; which is the stage of the darkest periods of human history, the stage of rule by brute force.”

    – Ayn Rand

    Rule by brute force.

    That’s about as good a description as you’ll find for the sorry state of our nation.

    SWAT teams crashing through doors. Militarized police shooting unarmed citizens. Traffic cops tasering old men and pregnant women for not complying fast enough with an order. Resource officers shackling children for acting like children. Homeowners finding their homes under siege by police out to confiscate lawfully-owned guns. Drivers having their cash seized under the pretext that they might have done something wrong.

    The list of abuses being perpetrated against the American people by their government is growing rapidly.

    We are approaching critical mass.

    The groundwork has been laid for a new kind of government where it won’t matter if you’re innocent or guilty, whether you’re a threat to the nation, or even if you’re a citizen. What will matter is what the government—or whoever happens to be calling the shots at the time—thinks. And if the powers-that-be think you’re a threat to the nation and should be locked up, then you’ll be locked up with no access to the protections our Constitution provides.

    In effect, you will disappear.

    Our freedoms are already being made to disappear.

    We have seen this come to pass under past presidents with their use of executive orders, decrees, memorandums, proclamations, national security directives and legislative signing statements.

    President Biden’s long list of executive orders, executive actions, proclamations and directives is just more of the same: rule by fiat.

    Now the Biden Administration is setting its sights on gun control.

    Mark my words: gun control legislation, especially in the form of red flag gun laws, which allow the police to remove guns from people “suspected” of being threats, will become yet another means by which to subvert the Constitution and sabotage the rights of the people.

    These laws, growing in popularity as a legislative means by which to seize guns from individuals viewed as a danger to themselves or others, are yet another Trojan Horse, a stealth maneuver by the police state to gain greater power over an unsuspecting and largely gullible populace.

    Nineteen states and Washington DC have red flag laws on their books.

    That number is growing.

    As The Washington Post reports, these laws “allow a family member, roommate, beau, law enforcement officer or any type of medical professional to file a petition [with a court] asking that a person’s home be temporarily cleared of firearms. It doesn’t require a mental-health diagnosis or an arrest.”

    In the midst of what feels like an epidemic of mass shootings (the statistics suggest otherwise), these gun confiscation laws—extreme risk protection order (ERPO) laws—may appease the fears of those who believe that fewer guns in the hands of the general populace will make our society safer.

    Of course, it doesn’t always work that way.

    Anything—knives, vehicles, planes, pressure cookers—can become a weapon when wielded with deadly intentions.

    With these red flag gun laws, the stated intention is to disarm individuals who are potential threats… to “stop dangerous people before they act.”

    While in theory it appears perfectly reasonable to want to disarm individuals who are clearly suicidal and/or pose an “immediate danger” to themselves or others, where the problem arises is when you put the power to determine who is a potential danger in the hands of government agencies, the courts and the police.

    We’ve been down this road before.

    Remember, this is the same government that uses the words “anti-government,” “extremist” and “terrorist” interchangeably.

    This is the same government whose agents are spinning a sticky spider-web of threat assessments, behavioral sensing warnings, flagged “words,” and “suspicious” activity reports using automated eyes and ears, social media, behavior sensing software, and citizen spies to identify potential threats.

    This is the same government that keeps re-upping the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which allows the military to detain American citizens with no access to friends, family or the courts if the government believes them to be a threat.

    This is the same government that has a growing list—shared with fusion centers and law enforcement agencies—of ideologies, behaviors, affiliations and other characteristics that could flag someone as suspicious and result in their being labeled potential enemies of the state.

    For instance, if you believe in and exercise your rights under the Constitution (namely, your right to speak freely, worship freely, associate with like-minded individuals who share your political views, criticize the government, own a weapon, demand a warrant before being questioned or searched, or any other activity viewed as potentially anti-government, racist, bigoted, anarchic or sovereign), you could be at the top of the government’s terrorism watch list.

    Moreover, as a New York Times editorial warns, you may be an anti-government extremist (a.k.a. domestic terrorist) in the eyes of the police if you are afraid that the government is plotting to confiscate your firearms, if you believe the economy is about to collapse and the government will soon declare martial law, or if you display an unusual number of political and/or ideological bumper stickers on your car.

    Let that sink in a moment.

    Now consider the ramifications of giving police that kind of authority: to preemptively raid homes in order to neutralize a potential threat.

    It’s a powder keg waiting for a lit match.

    Under these red flag laws, what happened to Duncan Lemp—who was gunned down in his bedroom during an early morning, no-knock SWAT team raid on his family’s home—could very well happen to more people.

    At 4:30 a.m. on March 12, 2020, in the midst of a COVID-19 pandemic that had most of the country under a partial lockdown and sheltering at home, a masked SWAT team—deployed to execute a “high risk” search warrant for unauthorized firearms—stormed the suburban house where 21-year-old Duncan, a software engineer and Second Amendment advocate, lived with his parents and 19-year-old brother.

    The entire household, including Lemp and his girlfriend, was reportedly asleep when the SWAT team directed flash bang grenades and gunfire through Lemp’s bedroom window.

    Lemp was killed and his girlfriend injured.

    No one in the house that morning, including Lemp, had a criminal record.

    No one in the house that morning, including Lemp, was considered an “imminent threat” to law enforcement or the public, at least not according to the search warrant.

    So what was so urgent that militarized police felt compelled to employ battlefield tactics in the pre-dawn hours of a day when most people are asleep in bed, not to mention stuck at home as part of a nationwide lockdown?

    According to police, they were tipped off that Lemp was in possession of “firearms.”

    Thus, rather than approaching the house by the front door at a reasonable hour in order to investigate this complaint—which is what the Fourth Amendment requires—police instead strapped on their guns, loaded up their flash bang grenades and acted like battle-crazed warriors.

    This is the blowback from all that military weaponry flowing to domestic police departments.

    This is what happens when you use SWAT teams to carry out routine search warrants.

    This is what happens when you adopt red flag gun laws, which Maryland did in 2018, painting anyone who might be in possession of a gun—legal or otherwise—as a threat that must be neutralized.

    Therein lies the danger of these red flag laws, specifically, and pre-crime laws such as these generally where the burden of proof is reversed and you are guilty before you are given any chance to prove you are innocent.

    Red flag gun laws merely push us that much closer towards a suspect society where everyone is potentially guilty of some crime or another and must be preemptively rendered harmless.

    Where many Americans go wrong is in naively assuming that you have to be doing something illegal or harmful in order to be flagged and targeted for some form of intervention or detention.

    In fact, U.S. police agencies have been working to identify and manage potential extremist “threats,” violent or otherwise, before they can become actual threats for some time now.

    All you need to do these days to end up on a government watch list or be subjected to heightened scrutiny is use certain trigger words (like cloud, pork and pirates), surf the internet, communicate using a cell phone, limp or stutter, drive a car, stay at a hotel, attend a political rally, express yourself on social media, appear mentally ill, serve in the military, disagree with a law enforcement official, call in sick to work, purchase materials at a hardware store, take flying or boating lessons, appear suspicious, appear confused or nervous, fidget or whistle or smell bad, be seen in public waving a toy gun or anything remotely resembling a gun (such as a water nozzle or a remote control or a walking cane), stare at a police officer, question government authority, appear to be pro-gun or pro-freedom, or generally live in the United States.

    Be warned: once you get on such a government watch list—whether it’s a terrorist watch list, a mental health watch list, a dissident watch list, or a red flag gun watch list—there’s no clear-cut way to get off, whether or not you should actually be on there.

    You will be tracked wherever you go.

    You will be flagged as a potential threat and dealt with accordingly.

    This is pre-crime on an ideological scale and it’s been a long time coming.

    The government has been building its pre-crime, surveillance network in concert with fusion centers (of which there are 78 nationwide, with partners in the private sector and globally), data collection agencies, behavioral scientists, corporations, social media, and community organizers and by relying on cutting-edge technology for surveillance, facial recognition, predictive policing, biometrics, and behavioral epigenetics (in which life experiences alter one’s genetic makeup).

    To that noxious mix, add in a proposal introduced under the Trump Administration and being considered by Biden for a new government agency HARPA (a healthcare counterpart to the Pentagon’s research and development arm DARPA) that will take the lead in identifying and targeting “signs” of mental illness or violent inclinations among the populace by using artificial intelligence to collect data from Apple Watches, Fitbits, Amazon Echo and Google Home.

    It’s the American police state’s take on the dystopian terrors foreshadowed by George Orwell, Aldous Huxley and Phillip K. Dick all rolled up into one oppressive pre-crime and pre-thought crime package.

    If you’re not scared yet, you should be.

    Connect the dots.

    Start with the powers amassed by the government under the USA Patriot Act, note the government’s ever-broadening definition of what it considers to be an “extremist,” then add in the government’s detention powers under NDAA, the National Security Agency’s far-reaching surveillance networks, and fusion centers that collect and share surveillance data between local, state and federal police agencies.

    To that, add tens of thousands of armed, surveillance drones that will soon blanket American skies, facial recognition technology that will identify and track you wherever you go and whatever you do. And then to complete the picture, toss in the real-time crime centers being deployed in cities across the country, which will be attempting to “predict” crimes and identify criminals before they happen based on widespread surveillance, complex mathematical algorithms and prognostication programs.

    Hopefully you’re starting to understand how easy we’ve made it for the government to identify, label, target, defuse and detain anyone it views as a potential threat for a variety of reasons that run the gamut from mental illness to having a military background to challenging its authority to just being on the government’s list of persona non grata. Finally, add in the local police agencies and SWAT teams that are being “gifted” military-grade weaponry and equipment designed for the battlefield and trained in the tactics of war.

    It all adds up to a terrifying package of brute force coupled with invasive technology and totalitarian tactics.

    This brings me back to those red flag gun laws.

    In the short term, these gun confiscation laws may serve to temporarily delay or discourage those wishing to inflict violence on others, but it will not resolve whatever madness or hate or instability therein that causes someone to pull a trigger or launch a bomb or unleash violence on another.

    Indeed, those same individuals sick enough to walk into an elementary school or a movie theater and open fire using a gun can and do wreak just as much havoc with homemade bombs made out of pressure cookers and a handful of knives.

    Nor will these laws save us from government-instigated and directed violence at the hands of the militarized police state or the blowback from the war-drenched, violence-imbued, profit-driven military industrial complex, both of which remain largely overlooked and underestimated pieces of the discussion on gun violence in America.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, in the long term, all these gun confiscation laws will do is ensure that when the police state finally cracks down, “we the people” are defenseless in the face of the government’s arsenal of weapons.

    No matter how well-meaning the politicians make these encroachments on our rights appear, in the right (or wrong) hands, benevolent plans can easily be put to malevolent purposes. In this way, even the most well-intentioned government law or program can be—and has been—perverted, corrupted and used to advance illegitimate purposes once profit and power are added to the equation.

    The war on terror, the war on drugs, the war on illegal immigration, asset forfeiture schemes, road safety schemes, school safety schemes, eminent domain: all of these programs started out as legitimate responses to pressing concerns and have since become weapons of compliance and control in the police state’s hands.

    Red flag laws and gun control legislation are no less a threat to our freedoms.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 04/15/2021 – 23:50

  • Visualizing America's Longest Foreign Wars
    Visualizing America’s Longest Foreign Wars

    President Biden has announced that 2,500 U.S. troops and another 7,000 from NATO will start returning home from Afghanistan in May, with the full withdrawal set to be completed in time for the 20th anniversary of 9/11. In a White House speech, he said:

    “I am now the fourth American president to preside over an American troop presence in Afghanistan. Two Republicans. Two Democrats. I will not pass this responsibility on to a fifth.”

    Statista’s Niall McCarthy details that over the course of nearly two decades, America’s longest war has consumed $2 trillion dollars, cost 110,000 Afghan lives and also resulted in the deaths of 3,500 coalition service members including around 2,400 Americans.

    Biden’s announcement will prove pivotal for Afghanistan and it could accelerate the drive towards peace or plunge the country into further uncertainty and violence. When asked by a reporter about whether the decision was a difficult one, the president said it was not and that “to me, it was absolutely clear”. He continued by stating that “we went for two reasons: to get rid of bin Laden and to end the safe haven. I never thought we were there to somehow unify Afghanistan. It’s never been done.”

    So how does the length of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan compare to other major foreign wars?

    Infographic: America’s Longest Foreign Wars | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Defining what exactly constitutes a military conflict is not as straightforward as it sounds and down through the years, U.S. participation in major wars, interventions, occupations and suppressions of insurgencies have tended to overlap. The Washington Post took those factors into account when it put an overview of U.S. foreign wars together in 2014.

    It shows that Afghanistan is the longest war in American history by far, running for nearly twice as long as the previous longest conflict, Vietnam. It has also outlasted the Spanish-American War, World War I, World War II and the Korean War combined. The reality of the length of the war in Afghanistan becomes clear by the fact that many U.S. troops serving in the country were not even born when the conflict started back in October 2001.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 04/15/2021 – 23:30

  • Shipping's Billion-Dollar Coke Bust: 8 Plead Guilty, Sentencing Begins
    Shipping’s Billion-Dollar Coke Bust: 8 Plead Guilty, Sentencing Begins

    By Greg Miller, Senior Editor at Freight Waves,

    Prosecutors called it “the largest cocaine seizure in the 230-year history of U.S. Customs and Border Protection.” Twenty tons of cocaine worth $1 billion was found in seven containers aboard the MSC Gayane at the Philadelphia port on June 17, 2019. On Tuesday, the first of the conspirators — former MSC crewmember Vladimir Penda — was sentenced to five years and 10 months in prison for his crime.

    Fresh details on who was involved in the conspiracy and how they did it have been revealed in new legal documents filed by prosecutors. They disclosed that a total of eight MSC crewmembers aboard the ship have pleaded guilty — including the chief mate and second mate.

    Brazen smuggling operation

    The MSC Gayane case is so striking because the drugs were not hidden in containers prior to loading at export terminals. Rather, they were brazenly loaded aboard at night in the open sea by MSC crewmembers.

    Speedboats met the ship off South America, and coke-brick-laden duffel bags were hoisted aboard by crew using the ship’s own crane.

    And this was no rust-bucket freighter being used for drug transport. The MSC Gayane is a large, 2018-built container ship with a capacity of 11,600 twenty-foot equivalent units. It is chartered by Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC), the largest ocean carrier in the world (including ships on order). VesselsValue puts its current value at $101.8 million. It is owned by Meridian 7, an entity linked to J.P. Morgan.

    More than a third of crew involved

    Eight crewmembers — more than a third of the total contingent of 22 — participated in the smuggling operation, according to prosecutors. Four were recruited in their home country of Montenegro prior to boarding and coordinated the operation with their land-based associates using mobile “narco” phones. Four other crewmembers were recruited when the ship was at sea to help with the loading operation.

    In addition to Penda, the ship’s fourth engineer, the seven other crewmembers who pleaded guilty are Bosko Markovic, chief mate; Ivan Durasevic, second mate; Nenad Ilic, engineer cadet; Aleksandar Kavaja, electrician; Stefan Bojevic, assistant reeferman; Fonofaavae Tiasaga, able seaman; and Laauli Pulu, ordinary seaman.

    Left: ship crane used to load cocaine. Right: Crew list, with names of those not pleading guilty redacted (Photos: Justice Department sentencing memorandum)

    The MSC Gayane was met by speedboats on multiple occasions during its voyage. After the duffel bags were hoisted aboard, “crewmembers bent railings on the ship and pulled back doors on the shipping containers so they could fit the bags of cocaine into the containers,” said prosecutors in Penda’s sentencing memorandum.

    The drugs were hidden “among legitimate cargo” and “crewmembers used fake seals to reseal the containers.” Prosecutors said that “the chief mate [Markovic] was in charge of the cargo plan and helped choose the shipping containers in which the cocaine would be stashed.”

    A criminal complaint filed by a special investigator on the day after the bust also cited an alleged leadership role of second mate Durasevic. One of the crew alleged to the investigator that he had been approached by Durasevic to load cocaine starting “on the previous voyage.”

    Fake seals used after cocaine was placed in containers (Photos: Justice Department sentencing memorandum)

    “A good person”

    Penda, who had no previous offenses, was one of the crewmembers recruited while on board.  Prosecutors wrote that the advisory sentencing guidelines called for a prison sentence of 135-168 months. Penda’s attorney argued for 60. The judge gave him 70.

    In affidavits filed before the sentencing, Penda’s family and friends described him as modest, kind, generous, “full of love for his family and people in general, indifferent to material things” … “very sensitive and emotional” … “a good person.”

    Penda grew up in Tivat, Montenegro, and began working for MSC in 2017. His lawyer wrote, “He is committed to facing the consequences of his actions and rebuilding his life after making a big mistake.”

    Additional fake container seals were found hidden in an electrical box (Photo: Justice Department sentencing memorandum)

    Driven by fear

    Penda “found himself as an engineer on the MSC Gayane alongside members of the Montenegrin mafia who asked Mr. Penda repeatedly to carry cocaine for them,” wrote his lawyer. 

    Penda “declined twice before he realized that ‘no’ was not an acceptable answer. Having lived his whole life in Montenegro [where he] witnessed the dangerous criminal acts committed by Montenegrin crime groups, Mr. Penda knew that he was not safe on the high seas unless he agreed to assist them.

    “His contribution to the enterprise consisted only of his own manual labor carrying the cocaine” from the crane to the ship’s containers, said Penda’s attorney, who said that his client was paid €4,000 ($4,800) for his work.

    The lawyer continued, “After his guilty plea, a Montenegrin newspaper published a story stating that Mr. Penda was cooperating with the U.S. Department of Justice. As a result, Mr. Penda’s family was put in immediate danger and feared they would be killed.

    “Some of his family members even went into hiding immediately. Thankfully, with the intervention of Justice Department representatives in Montenegro, we were able to satisfy the reporter that Mr. Penda had not cooperated and thereby have the story retracted.”

    Cocaine found aboard the MSC Gayane in 2019 (Photos: Justice Department sentencing memorandum)

    What’s next?

    As previously reported by American Shipper, Ilic and Kavaja await sentencing. Ilic was previously scheduled to be sentenced on April 5, but that has been delayed. Kavaja was originally scheduled for sentencing on April 28, but that too has been pushed back.

    The dockets for the five remaining former crewmembers who pleaded guilty were still under seal as of Tuesday.

    As for MSC, the liner giant emphasized in a recent court filing that “the company and everyone in it are victims” of the smuggling operation. It is spending an additional $100 million or more on security through 2024 as a result of the incident, which MSC said caused it “significant financial and reputational damage.”

    As for law enforcement, the Penda sentencing marks the beginning of the end of this stage of the investigation.

    Acting U.S. Attorney Jennifer Arbittier Williams said on Tuesday, “It has been nearly two years since federal agents conducted one of the largest drug seizures in U.S. history. The follow-up investigation uncovered dark-of-night, clandestine drug trafficking conduct which read like a movie plot, and prosecutors in our office have been working nonstop since then to pursue justice in this case. With Mr. Penda’s just sentence being handed down today, this chapter of the MSC Gayane saga is now coming to a close.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 04/15/2021 – 23:10

  • Meet The World's Most Advanced Beer-Pissing Robot 
    Meet The World’s Most Advanced Beer-Pissing Robot 

    YouTuber Michael Reeves was able to get his hands on a Boston Dynamics’ robot dog Spot and teach it how to pee beer into a cup. The video, which has gone viral and has more than 6.6 million views. 

    “It’s an engineering masterpiece, I wanna make it piss beer into a cup,” Reeves said, who was quoted by NYPost. The 16-minute clip runs through Reeves’ development process of teaching Spot how to piss beer in a cup. 

    By the 9:39 minute mark of the video, Reeves unveils the “pissbot” and tells viewers this is the “future of alcoholism.” 

    So here’s how pissbot works. You can be anywhere in the room and place the cup on the ground. The robot will find the cup and walk to it using sensors, eventually aligning its piss nozzle and filling up the beer cup. 

    Reeves explains the technology works about 35% of the time. The cutting-edge pisspot failed several attempts but eventually succeeded, pissing a nice cold brew into a solo cup with precision. 

    Since Boston Dynamics recently made Spot commercially available, others have programmed the robot dog to survey oil rigs and buildings. Others have strapped paintball guns to the Spot, which angered the robotics firm. Even the French Army is testing Spot. 

    Spot’s terms and conditions prohibit the use of weaponizing the robot “to harm or intimidate any person or animal, as a weapon, or to enable any weapon.” One could argue that if Spot is used as a reconnaissance robot, it would indirectly harm a human being (a gray area). 

    So pissing beer in a cup is fine, but using the robot for warfare is frowned upon by the company. 

    At the end of the video, Reeves travels from Los Angeles to Boston Dynamics’ headquarters in Waltham, Massachusetts, to take a piss, showing his respect for the robotics company.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 04/15/2021 – 22:50

  • US Intelligence Officially Walks Back Claim Russia Paid Bounties For US Troops In Afghanistan
    US Intelligence Officially Walks Back Claim Russia Paid Bounties For US Troops In Afghanistan

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    Since The New York Times published a story in June 2020 that claimed US intelligence concluded Russia offered bounties to militants in Afghanistan to kill US troops, it has slowly been revealed that the report had no basis. On Thursday, putting the final nail in the coffin of the Russian bounty hoax, the Biden administration walked back the claim.

    “The United States intelligence community assesses with low to moderate confidence that Russian intelligence officers sought to encourage Taliban attacks US and coalition personnel in Afghanistan in 2019 and perhaps earlier,” a senior administration official told The Daily Beast.

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    As The Daily Beast report explains, “low to moderate confidence” means “the intelligence agencies have found the story is, at best, unproven — and possibly untrue.”

    The comments from the officials are not surprising, as US intelligence agencies, most notably the NSA, dissented from the Russian bounty story almost immediately. Shortly after the original New York Times report was published, NSA sources spoke out against the conclusion.

    A memo circulated by the National Intelligence Council in July 2020 said only the CIA and the National Counterterrorism Center assessed with “medium confidence” that Russia offered the Taliban bounties. The memo said other intelligence agencies, only mentioning the NSA by name, gave it “low confidence.” According to US intelligence agencies’ definition of the confidence levels, the “medium” or “moderate” confidence level leaves plenty of room for doubt.

    US officials told The Daily Beast that the reporting about the alleged bounties came from “detainee reporting,” which suggests the bogus information was obtained through interrogation by the US-backed Afghan government, which has a history of torturing prisoners. The fact that some of the information was obtained through interrogation was included in the original New York Times report, one reason why so many doubted it.

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    President Trump dismissed the Russian bounty story as a “hoax,” which prompted cries of treason from his political opponents. The report inspired House Democrats, working with Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) to add an amendment to the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that sought to block troop withdrawals from Afghanistan, which was included in the final NDAA.

    Despite the fact that the Russian bounty story has zero credibility, the Biden administration is still using it to advance hawkish Russia policies. When announcing a series of sanctions on Moscow and the expelling of Russian diplomats on Thursday, the State Department cited “reports of bounties on US soldiers in Afghanistan”.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 04/15/2021 – 22:30

  • New York City's Super Rich Brace For Highest Income Tax Rate In The Country
    New York City’s Super Rich Brace For Highest Income Tax Rate In The Country

    It’s almost like New York State is trying to drive people out of the state and to tax havens like Florida.

    The richest of the rich in New York are now staring down the barrel of paying the highest personal income tax rate in the country, with Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s proposed rate increases, also known as his “Millionaire’s Tax”. 

    And while the tax will affect 123,000 New Yorkers across the state, the number of millionaires set to pay the highest rate in New York City dwindles to just about 500 households, according to a new review of the tax by MarketWatch. 

    A total of 15,165 city taxpayers will be on their way to a tax hike under the new state tax. Of those, 529 are slated to pay the top rate, designated for those making more than $25 million per year. Among those names are famous New York citizens like Michael Bloomberg, Julia Koch and Leonard Lauder. Bloomberg has a net worth of $59 billion, while Koch is worth $46.4 billion and Lauder is worth $25.5 billion. 

    The forthcoming state budget will generate $2.8 billion in new taxes from the super rich in the upcoming year and $3.3 billion in the next year. 

    The changes raise the state’s top rate to 9.65% from 8.82% for households that make over $1 million. Those making between $5 million and $25 million sport a 10.3% tax rate and people making over $25 million have a 10.9% rate.

    Meanwhile, New York City already assesses a 3.88% top tax rate. The combined city and state rate for the three highest end tiers easily surpasses California’s 13.3% top tax rate. And this is all, of course, on top of a 37% Federal tax rate for those making at least $518,400 per year. 

    About 55,215 New York State residents make at least $1 million and their combined tax bill accounted for 31.1% of the state’s 2019 tax liability. Marketwatch concluded:

    • Within that, 48,243 taxpayers make between $1 million and $5 million, paying an estimated 13.2% of the state’s 2019 tax liability.
    • Another 5,053 taxpayers earn between $5 million and $25 million, and account for an estimated 6.9% of the liability.
    • At the highest end, 1,919 New York State residents make at least $25 million and paid for 11% of the 2019 tax liability, the comptroller data said.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 04/15/2021 – 22:10

  • Can Huarong Go Bankrupt?
    Can Huarong Go Bankrupt?

    By Ling Huawei, managing editor of Caixin Media and Caixin Weekly. Originally published in Caixin,

    After China Huarong Asset Management Co. Ltd. on March 31 decided to suspend its share trading the next day, the market became awash in rumors that the company, one of the country’s four largest bad-asset managers, would be forced into restructuring or might even go bankrupt (as we discussed in “This Is A Fatal Event”: China’s Bond Market Hammered After Huarong Bankruptcy Rumors).

    The rumors spooked many institutional investors, sending the company’s bonds tumbling. Huarong, a product of China’s reform of state-owned banks at the end of last century, has once again found itself at the center of a critical moment in its history.

    But can Huarong go bankrupt?

    Huarong is not a bank. Most of its investors are the institutional sort, not individuals. If it were to go bankrupt, the spillover risks ought to be much easier to handle. Also, although Huarong has total assets upward of 1.7 trillion yuan ($259 billion), the central bank does not regard it as a systemically important financial institution. Therefore, it seems that Huarong’s problems ought to be dealt with in the same “market-oriented” way as average financial institutions. Under China’s Company Law in the case, shareholders would need to fill the holes on the books with net assets. After that, the company could issue new shares or introduce strategic investors to supplement the company’s capital. If the company was still insolvent after all that, it might end up facing debt restructuring or bankruptcy.

    However, Huarong is not an ordinary company. Rather it is a central government-administrated state-owned financial enterprise. At the end of last century, the company was set up to dispose of the nonperforming assets of state-owned Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. Since 2006, it gradually expanded into a financial holding company. Huarong’s biggest shareholder is the Ministry of Finance, which holds a 61.25% stake. Huarong has grown its business mainly by obtaining financing with a state guarantee. In July 2014, the company started issuing bonds overseas, the outstanding value of which is more than $23 billion.

    Huarong, which went public in Hong Kong in October 2015, provides financing to multiple industries, with a large portion of its investment flowing into the property market or other areas where bank lending is kept under tight restrictions. Excluding its subsidiary, Huarong Xiangjiang Bank Corp. Ltd., Huarong has around 1 trillion yuan in assets, connecting financial institutions including banks, trust firms and insurance firms and nonfinancial industries. That gives Huarong certain characteristics of a systemically important financial institution that probably shouldn’t be allowed to go bankrupt.

    Regardless of whether it ends up going bankrupt, Huarong will need to put under strict financial constraints. Lai Xiaomin, a former chairman of Huarong who came under investigation in April 2018, was sentenced to death this January in the country’s biggest financial corruption case since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Some believe that Lai’s misconduct as chairman left Huarong with a huge financial black hole. The complexity of Lai’s case made it difficult to unwind some of Huarong’s more problematic projects, so it’s unrealistic to expect Huarong to fill that hole all on its own.

    As of mid-2020, Huarong had 160 billion yuan in net assets, and more than 30 billion yuan in loan-loss provisions. Huarong needs to be thoroughly recapitalized and have the value of its nonperforming assets correctly recalculated. It needs to “take a big bath.” Unless it does so, the company’s moral hazard will continue to grow. The financial black hole won’t disappear on its own, so Huarong needs to take responsibility and shoulder the losses.

    There’s no making without breaking. “Breaking” does not mean a hasty debt restructuring or even bankruptcy, but a practical restructuring plan created after completely clarifying its assets and liabilities. “Making” means Huarong needs to have the professional capabilities to dispose of nonperforming assets, to become a professional institution that can effectively dispose of such assets at both home and abroad.

    To achieve this goal, Hong Kong-listed Huarong will need the support and understanding of shareholders and other investors so that it can be privatized and delisted if necessary. Also, it needs to clear up its financials and recalculate its loss provisions. It will also need to reduce the costs of restructuring as much as possible and once again become a professional institution by reshaping its corporate culture and improving its internal governance.

    Update

    Confirming the above, this morning Bloomberg reported that Huarong has prepared funds for full repayment of a S$600 million offshore bond due April 27, according to a person with direct knowledge of the company’s plan.

    Huarong plans to make the payment on the due date, while a Huarong spokesperson declined to comment but said the company has “adequate liquidity” and has made full repayment on bonds that have matured

    Huarong International, the main offshore arm of China Huarong, “will continue its stable and compliant operations based on new business development plan,” the spokesperson said.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 04/15/2021 – 21:50

  • Drone Images Reveal Biden's Migrant Camp In Texas Expands As Border Crisis Rages
    Drone Images Reveal Biden’s Migrant Camp In Texas Expands As Border Crisis Rages

    Fox News’ Flight Team deployed an unmanned aerial vehicle in Donna, Texas, which reveals the extent to which the immigration facility has rapidly expanded in the last several weeks as the Biden administration struggles to find space for migrants. 

    New drone images show the facility has greatly expanded in a month. There are an estimated 4,000 migrants in custody at the facility, and each pod contained 500-600 migrants. Health guidelines state there should only be 32 people in each pod – so clearly, there are overcrowding concerns. 

    A flood of migrants have been filing up the Donna facility since President Biden took office – a stark contrast to the Trump administration, which required that migrants wait in Mexico while the US processed asylum requests, as opposed to Biden’s policy of letting everyone in and simply trusting migrants to show up for their hearings.

    Fox News’ Flight Team took photos of the facility in March and earlier this week, showing that it has expanded.

    The Donna facility as of March 31, 2021

    Source: Fox News 

    The Donna facility as of April 14, 2021

    Source: Fox News 

    The Department of Health and Human Services said while it is working to boost capacity, “additional capacity is urgently needed to manage the increasing numbers” of migrant children. The agency said the site is temporary.

    The Biden administration has repeatedly rejected the idea the border is in a crisis. Meanwhile, leaked photos from the facility in March show hundreds of children crammed together in pods, according to Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX), who provided the images to Axios to raise awareness about the deteriorating situation.

    With so many migrants caught illegally crossing into the US, the Biden administration in early April was forced to start constructing a temporary annex facility for unaccompanied minors next to the Donna facility. 

    House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) posted video footage of numerous unaccompanied children at the facility, calling it “child abuse.” 

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    Elsewhere on the border, things are so out of control that Gila Bend, a town near Arizona’s border with Mexico, declared a state of emergency over the border crisis. 

    Arizona sheriff Mark Lamb of Pinal County told “Fox & Friends” last month that President Bidens border crisis is worse than the Obama years, as the surge in illegal immigrants hits a 20-year-high. 

    Republicans have attacked the Biden administration for stoking the migrant crisis by ending former President Trump’s border policies, such as ordering to stop border wall construction. 

    However, since the migrant crisis has spiraled out of control, President Biden was forced to recently restart border wall construction to ‘plug gaps’ in the current barrier. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 04/15/2021 – 21:30

  • China Officially 'Enemy Number 1' In Annual US Threat Assessment Report
    China Officially ‘Enemy Number 1’ In Annual US Threat Assessment Report

    Via SouthFront.org,

    On April 13th, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released [pdf] its annual threat assessment report.

    The report reflects the collective insights of the Intelligence Community (IC), which is committed every day to providing the nuanced, independent, and unvarnished intelligence that policymakers, warfighters, and domestic law enforcement personnel need to protect American lives and America’s interests anywhere in the world.

    “This assessment focuses on the most direct, serious threats to the United States during the next year. The order of the topics presented in this assessment does not necessarily indicate their relative importance or the magnitude of the threats in the view of the IC. All require a robust intelligence response, including those where a near-term focus may help head off greater threats in the future, such as climate change and environmental degradation.”

    There are no big surprises in the report, Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang have demonstrated the capability and intent to advance their interests at the expense of the United States and its allies, despite the pandemic.

    Climate change is an important point, as well as there is an overview of the significant conflicts around the world, or simply instability between key players. This includes Afghanistan, India-Pakistan tensions, the Middle East in general, Asia as a whole, Latin America, and also Africa.

    “China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the United States in multiple arenas—especially economically, militarily, and technologically—and is pushing to change global norms. Russia is pushing back against Washington where it can globally, employing techniques up to and including the use of force. Iran will remain a regional menace with broader malign influence activities, and North Korea will be a disruptive player on the regional and world stages. Major adversaries and competitors are enhancing and exercising their military, cyber, and other capabilities, raising the risks to US and allied forces, weakening our conventional deterrence, and worsening the longstanding threat from weapons of mass destruction.”

    For each of the competitor countries, challenging the US interests on a global scale, there is a uniform presentation.

    It presents the “Regional and Global Activities”, “Military Capabilities”, “WMD” (Weapons of Mass Destruction), “Cyber”, “Space” and “Intelligence, Influence Operations, and Elections Influence and Interference”.

    These are as follows:

    China – Beijing is the biggest threat, and the most significant challenge with its ambitions to replace the US as global superpower.

    “The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will continue its whole-of-government efforts to spread China’s influence, undercut that of the United States, drive wedges between Washington and its allies and partners, and foster new international norms that favor the authoritarian Chinese system. Chinese leaders probably will, however, seek tactical opportunities to reduce tensions with Washington when such opportunities suit their interests.”

    Beijing sees increasingly competitive US-China relations as part of an epochal geopolitical shift and views Washington’s economic measures against Beijing since 2018 as part of a broader US effort to contain China’s rise.

    1. China seeks to use coordinated, whole-of-government tools to demonstrate its growing strength and compel regional neighbors to acquiesce to Beijing’s preferences, including its claims over disputed territory and assertions of sovereignty over Taiwan.

    This here includes behavior in the South China Sea, towards Taiwan as mentioned, with India, and the ever-improving relations with Russia.

    1. China will continue pursuing its goals of becoming a great power, securing what it views as its territory, and establishing its preeminence in regional affairs by building a world-class military, potentially destabilizing international norms and relationships. China’s military commitment includes a multiyear agenda of comprehensive military reform initiatives.

    2. Beijing will continue the most rapid expansion and platform diversification of its nuclear arsenal in its history, intending to at least double the size of its nuclear stockpile during the next decade and to field a nuclear triad. Beijing is not interested in arms control agreements that restrict its modernization plans and will not agree to substantive negotiations that lock in US or Russian nuclear advantages.

    3. Beijing is working to match or exceed US capabilities in space to gain the military, economic, and prestige benefits that Washington has accrued from space leadership

    Counterspace operations will be integral to potential military campaigns by the PLA, and China has counterspace weapons capabilities intended to target US and allied satellites.

    1. We assess that China presents a prolific and effective cyber-espionage threat, possesses substantial cyber-attack capabilities, and presents a growing influence threat. China’s cyber pursuits and proliferation of related technologies increase the threats of cyber-attacks against the US homeland, suppression of US web content that Beijing views as threatening to its internal ideological control, and the expansion of technology-driven authoritarianism around the world.

    2. China will continue expanding its global intelligence footprint to better support its growing political, economic, and security interests around the world, increasingly challenging the United States’ alliances and partnerships. Across East Asia and the western Pacific, which Beijing views as its natural sphere of influence, China is attempting to exploit doubts about the US commitment to the region, undermine Taiwan’s democracy, and extend Beijing’s influence.

    Russia – despite less-threatening than China currently, and according to the report unwilling to initiate a direct conflict with the US, Moscow is still a key adversary, not too far off from China in terms of threat to US interest.

    “Moscow will continue to employ a variety of tactics this year meant to undermine US influence, develop new international norms and partnerships, divide Western countries and weaken Western alliances, and demonstrate Russia’s ability to shape global events as a major player in a new multipolar international order.”

    1. Russia probably will continue to expand its global military, intelligence, security, commercial, and energy footprint and build partnerships with US allies and adversaries alike, most notably Russia’s growing strategic cooperation with China, to achieve its objectives.

    “We assess that Moscow will employ an array of tools—especially influence campaigns, intelligence and counterterrorism cooperation, military aid and combined exercises, mercenary operations, assassinations, and arms sales—to advance its interests or undermine the interests of the United States and its allies. We expect Moscow to insert itself into crises when Russian interests are at stake, it can turn a power vacuum into an opportunity, or the anticipated costs of action are low.”

    1. Despite declining defense spending, Russia will emphasize new weapons that present increased threats to the United States and regional actors while continuing its foreign military engagements, conducting training exercises, and incorporating lessons from its involvement in Syria and Ukraine.

    2. The report assesses Russia will remain the largest and most capable WMD rival to the United States for the foreseeable future as it expands and modernizes its nuclear weapons capabilities and increases the capabilities of its strategic and nonstrategic weapons. Russia also remains a nuclear-material security concern, despite improvements to physical security at Russian nuclear sites since the 1990s.

    3. Russia will remain a top cyber threat as it refines and employs its espionage, influence, and attack capabilities.

    4. Russia will remain a key space competitor, maintaining a large network of reconnaissance, communications, and navigation satellites. It will focus on integrating space services—such as communications; positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT); geolocation; and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance—into its weapons and command-and-control systems.

    5. Russia presents one of the most serious intelligence threats to the United States, using its intelligence services and influence tools to try to divide Western alliances, preserve its influence in the post-Soviet area, and increase its sway around the world, while undermining US global standing, sowing discord inside the United States, and influencing US voters and decision-making.

    Iran – it presents a continuing threat to US and allied interests in the region as it tries to erode US influence and support Shia populations abroad, entrench its influence and project power in neighboring states, deflect international pressure, and minimize threats to regime stability.

    “Although Iran’s deteriorating economy and poor regional reputation present obstacles to its goals, Tehran will try a range of tools—diplomacy, expanding its nuclear program, military sales and acquisitions, and proxy and partner attacks—to advance its goals.”

    Risks will reportedly be taken by Tehran to increase tensions and try to gain leverage against US to get concessions on sanctions.

    1. Iran will remain a problematic actor in Iraq, which will be the key battleground for Iran’s influence this year and during the next several years, and Iranian-supported Iraqi Shia militias will continue to pose the primary threat to US personnel in Iraq. The situation is largely the same for Iran’s influence in Syria and Yemen. It notably remains the biggest threat to Israel. It is expected to take more part in Afghanistan, too.

    2. Iran’s diverse military capabilities and its hybrid approach to warfare—using both conventional and unconventional capabilities—will continue to pose a threat to US and allied interests in the region for the foreseeable future.

    3. Iran remains interested in developing networks inside the United States—an objective it has pursued for more than a decade—but the greatest risk to US persons exists outside the Homeland, particularly in the Middle East and South Asia.

    4. If Tehran does not receive sanctions relief, Iranian officials probably will consider options ranging from further enriching uranium up to 60 percent to designing and building a new 40 Megawatt Heavy Water reactor.

    “We continue to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that we judge would be necessary to produce a nuclear device. However, following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA agreement in May 2018, Iranian officials have abandoned some of Iran’s commitments and resumed some nuclear activities that exceed the JCPOA limits.”

    1. Iran’s expertise and willingness to conduct aggressive cyber operations make it a significant threat to the security of US and allied networks and data. Iran has the ability to conduct attacks on critical infrastructure, as well as to conduct influence and espionage activities.

    North Korea – it is not out of the question for Kim Jong Un to undertake a number of aggressive and potentially destabilizing actions to reshape the regional security environment and drive wedges between the United States and its allies—up to and including the resumption of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) testing.

    1. North Korea will pose an increasing threat to the United States, South Korea, and Japan as it continues to improve its conventional military capabilities.

    2. North Korea will be a WMD threat for the foreseeable future, because Kim remains strongly committed to the country’s nuclear weapons, the country is actively engaged in ballistic missile research and development, and Pyongyang’s CBW efforts persist.

    3. North Korea’s cyber program poses a growing espionage, theft, and attack threat.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 04/15/2021 – 21:10

  • There Are Now More Real Estate Agents Than Homes For Sale In The U.S.
    There Are Now More Real Estate Agents Than Homes For Sale In The U.S.

    If there has been one surefire beneficiary of the Fed printing trillions of new dollars and bailing out the entire U.S. economy at the cost of what will likely be a hyperinflationary disaster in the future, it has been the housing market. 

    The real estate market has surged into 2021, as newly cash flush U.S. citizens (thanks to a slew of government ‘free money’) leave cities and look to settle down in the suburbs. To say the market is running hot would be a vast understatement. 

    And this, of course, has resulted in an influx of new realtors. In fact, as the Wall Street Journal reports, “there are more real-estate agents than homes for sale in the U.S.”. It marks only the second time in history The National Association of Realtors member count is above the number of homes on the market. The other time was in December of 2019. 

    At the end of January, there were 1.04 million homes from sale (down 26% YOY and the lowest on record since 1982). The NAR posted 1.45 million members, up 4.8% from the year prior. The Journal wrote:

    The business is pretty fluid. NAR, which represents the majority of active U.S. residential real-estate agents and brokers, said about 15% of its membership turns over every year. Agents usually work as independent contractors, and many work part time.

    The number of agents also tends to roughly correlate with the performance of the housing market. The ranks of NAR rose to 1.37 million in October 2006—shortly after the market’s peak—then bottomed out around 960,000 in March 2012, following the housing crash. NAR membership has risen every year since.

    Real estate broker Redfin says it is now hiring 162 people a week after furloughing 41% of its agents in April of last year. At the same time last year, it was hiring just 92 people per week.

    Because of the glut of realtors, many are finding it difficult to churn up business for themselves. Many new realtors are defectors from the hospitality industry, where innumerable bartenders, waiters, hosts and cooks have all been laid off due to (the government’s response to) the pandemic. But being a realtor is often times easier said than done.

    “There are very low barriers to entry, in terms of the ease of getting a real-estate license. But the barriers to success are very high,” one Re/Max employee said.

    The Journal highlights Michael Mitchell in Boston, who got his license in October 2020 after being laid off from another job. He has yet to get a deal done. 

    “I’ve learned some aspects of the business, but it’s hard to connect with people…that you’ve never met,” he said.

    That’s because buyers and sellers generally like to drift toward agents who have track records and experience to fall back on. Realtors with under two years of experience earned a median gross income of just $8,900 from their real estate work in 2019, the report says. As you stay on the job longer, that median gross income rises. 

    Another new realtor, Diana Dorel Gutierrez, shared what she was told by her new co-workers:

     “They said, ‘You don’t have any idea what you’re in for. This is the worst time to be an agent [for buyers] and the best time if you’re the listing agent.’”

    She concluded on a note of optimism: “If you can do it in this industry at this time, you can do anything.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 04/15/2021 – 20:50

  • Tucker Carlson Responds To Fauci Labelling His Basic Questions "Crazy Conspiracy Theory"
    Tucker Carlson Responds To Fauci Labelling His Basic Questions “Crazy Conspiracy Theory”

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    Tucker Carlson responded to Anthony Fauci’s accusation that it is “a typical crazy conspiracy theory” to question why restrictions must remain in place even with a COVID vaccine by asking “If this stuff works, why can’t you live like it works?“

    Fauci has refused to appear on Carlson’s show, but instead appears daily on CNN, where Wednesday he said “I don’t have any idea of what [Carlson] is talking about,” and called the Fox host a ‘conspiracy theorist’ for questioning why masks and distancing still need to be in place if the vaccine works.

    Carlson responded by repeating the same “very straightforward” question, “why do people who have been previously infected and show high levels of antibodies have to live under the restrictions that the vaccines were supposed to eliminate?”

    “Why, for example, does Tony Fauci say you have to wear a mask after you get the vaccine?” Carlson continued, adding “If we are following the science, and we sincerely hope to, we’re wondering, is Fauci telling Americans who have been vaccinated or who have been recovered from the coronavirus itself, that they aren’t protected against future infections?”

    “Is that why he is saying they can’t eat in restaurants or go to bars? These are not trick questions. They are the most basic of all questions. We would love to have Dr. Fauci on this show to explain them.,” Carlson continued.

    “This, again, is not a trick question, we are not playing word games here, what is the answer?” Carlson pleaded, adding:

    “If the coronavirus vaccine prevents you from catching the coronavirus, why are you wearing a mask? Why can’t you eat in a restaurant? And if it doesn’t prevent you from catching the coronavirus, why are we taking it in the first place? Both can’t be true.”

    Watch:

    https://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=6249029916001&w=466&h=263Watch the latest video at foxnews.com

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 04/15/2021 – 20:30

  • Morgan Stanley Prime: These Are The 6 Main Hedge Fund Trading Themes In 2021
    Morgan Stanley Prime: These Are The 6 Main Hedge Fund Trading Themes In 2021

    Those wondering how hedge funds are doing may get conflicting answers depending on whom they ask.

    On one hand, according to Goldman Prime (best known these days for liquidating its margin called clients to extinction), the average Long-Short hedge funds was flat for Q1, with some outperformance observed only in the first two weeks of April.

    On the other hand, if one reads the FT, one finds articles such as “Hedge funds post best start to year since before financial crisis“  in which we read, perplexingly, that “hedge funds have navigated the GameStop short squeeze and the collapse of family office Archegos Capital to post their best first quarter of performance since before the global financial crisis.”

    According to the FT, “funds generated returns of just under 1% last month to take gains in the first three months of the year to 4.8%, the best first quarter since 2006, according to data group Eurekahedge. Recent data from HFR, meanwhile, show funds made 6.1% in the first three months of the year, the strongest first-quarter gain since 2000.”

    The gains are a marked contrast to the first three months of 2020, when funds slumped by around 11.6 per cent as the onset of the pandemic sent equity and other risky markets tumbling. However, funds later recovered strongly to post their best year of returns since 2009.

    While we agree that 2020 was catastrophic for hedge funds, it’s certainly new to use that hedge funds did so well in Q1 – after all according to the HFRX hedge fund index, the average hedge fund is not only underperforming the S&P500 and retail investors, but was effectively flat for Q1.

    Morgan Stanley’s latest Prime report confirms as much, writing that “March was another challenging month for HF performance, with most strategies posting losses despite Global equity indices ending higher MoM.” The report goes on to note that one of the main drivers behind this was the long side, as HF longs lagged the MSCI by close to ~5.5% for the month across Global L/S positions, which caused total alpha to end the month down -3.5%.

    Some more details from Morgan Stanley:

    The average Global fund ended the month down ~20bps, while the average Global Equity L/S fund was down slightly more at -0.9%; this all compares to the MSCI AC World Index posting gains of +2.7% in the month of March. Notably, the average fund was down slightly more heading into the final week of March, but was able to recover in the final few days. YTD, the average Global fund is now up +2.9% vs. the MSCI up +4.7%, while the average L/S fund is up +3.5%

    MS also calculates that on an asset-weighted basis, “the average Global Equity L/S return was -2.0% for March MTD.”

    The divergence between the FT report and HFR/Prime brokers appears to be that the former focused on a handful of outlier performers and extrapolated while ignoring the overall trend in the industry.

    Case in point, the FT writes that “among some of the biggest winners is technology specialist Lee Ainslie’s Maverick Capital, which late last year switched into value stocks. Maverick has also profited from a longstanding holding in SoftBank-backed ecommerce firm Coupang, which floated last month, and a timely position in GameStop. It has gained around 36 per cent. New York-based Senvest, which began buying GameStop shares in September, has gained 67 per cent.”

    Also profiting is Crispin Odey’s Odey European fund, which rose nearly 60 per cent, having lost around 30 per cent last year, according to numbers sent to investors.

    Odey’s James Hanbury has gained 7.3 per cent in his LF Brook Absolute Return fund, helped by positions in stocks such as pub group JD Wetherspoon and Wagamama owner The Restaurant Group. Such stocks have been helped by the UK’s progress on the rollout of the coronavirus vaccine, which has raised hopes of an economic rebound.”

    It appears that what the FT did is merely read the latest HSBC hedge fund league table and work backward. So here it is, stripped of all commentary:

    So to provide some actual signal, here are the 6 main themes from the latest Morgan Stanley prime broker report, first focusing on global hedge fund positioning and leverage…

    THEME #1: HFs Sell Global Equities in March; Global L/S Ratio Dips in Line with Net Activity

    HFs were net sellers of Global equities in March, though the net selling was mostly concentrated in the week ending March 19th, driven by the US and China – HFs added to shorts and sold longs in both countries. Despite this, N. Am was the only region to see net buying in March, while AxJ, Japan, and Europe were all net sold.

    In line with the selling in March, the Global L/S ratio (ex. Quants) fell MoM, though it remains quite elevated over the longer term. Currently, the ratio sits just below 2.5x, which represents the 86th %-tile over the last 12M and the 99th since 2010.

    THEME #2: Gross & Net Leverage (across Strategies) Falls from Recent Highs

    Despite the fact we saw funds across all strategies adding to both longs and shorts on a net basis in March, the average gross leverage level (across strategies) fell from a +1.1 z-score at the start of March to a +0.9 z-score by month-end. For reference,  gross leverage reached near peak levels since 2010 in late Jan of this year (in line with the last week of Jan. in 2018). After reaching a high since 2010 in mid-February this year, net leverage across strategies also fell in March from a +2.7 z-score to start the month to +2.5 z-score by month-end. The main drivers behind this were Multi-Strat / Macro and Asia funds, as net leverage fell -8% and -4% across the two strategies respectively.

    … and then the 4 main themes on North American positioning:

    THEME #1: Re-Grossing That Began In Feb Slowed in March, But Gross Leverage Remains Elevated

    One the key trends following the Jan de-grossing event has been the re-grossing across single-names by L/S funds, which is something we saw play out throughout all of Feb and into the early days of March. The re-grossing trend has since slowed materially, with gross flows across single-names essentially paired off for the past ~2.5 weeks. While we have yet to see HFs de-gross in any material size, it has been an interesting break in trend, and comes at a time where gross leverage remains near longer-term highs – US L/S gross leverage now sits at 198% (95th %-tile since 2010), which is where it stood at the end of Feb.

    THEME #2: Growth and Value Detract from L/S Returns; HFs Beginning to Rotate Towards Value

    Long Growth / short Value was one of the more effective trades throughout all of 2020, as attribution from the two factors was one of the main drivers behind the strong positive alpha generated last year. 2021, however, has been a much different story with the two factors now among the largest detractors from total return across US L/S positions. The negative attribution began in late 2020, but it wasn’t really until this past month where we began to see HFs actively rotating away from Growth into Value – currently, net exp to Value is near ~6 month highs, though it remains light relative to longer-dated history.

    From a flows perspective, most of the rotation took place in the weeks ending 3/19 and 3/26, with these two weeks in particular among the largest weeks of buying of Value / selling of Growth in the past year.Z

    THEME #3: HFs Add to Higher Quality Names in the Back Half of March

    In addition to buying Value on a net basis in the month of March, HFs were also relatively large buyers of the Quality factor. The majority of the buying took place in the 2nd half of March as the factor began to outperform, which perhaps indicates a declining risk appetite, with HFs favoring higher quality names. The shift towards Quality was largely driven by a shift away from small caps in favor of large cap stocks. Net exposure to Quality, like Value, is also close to ~6 month highs, but remains in the 24th %-tile since the start of 2019.

    THEME #4: Flows to Large Cap Tech Turn Positive, While Unprofitable Tech Sentiment Cools

    In line with the shift towards Large Cap names / Quality / Size, HFs were net buyers of Large Cap Tech in the back half of March. Net exposure to this cohort of names had bottomed in early March as flows had been trending towards selling for most of 2021 (and also in late ’20), but it has since rebounded sharply in recent weeks.

    On the other hand, we’ve seen the buying of the more ‘Unprofitable / Expensive’ Tech names slow, in line with the challenging performance of these names. Net exposure had reached a high at the end of Feb, but the combination of marginal amounts of selling (short adds) and weak relative performance have caused net exp to fall to the 69th %-tile over the last 12M.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 04/15/2021 – 20:10

  • Remembering Solyndra – A $524 Million Green Energy Failure
    Remembering Solyndra – A $524 Million Green Energy Failure

    Authored by Adam Andrzejewski via RealClearPolicy,

    Considering President Joseph Biden’s $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan, Americans should first review the taxpayer money that was spent on projects in 2009 and learn from the ones that were massive failures.

    Biden asked Congress to invest $35 billion in green energy leadership to see “technology breakthroughs that address the climate crisis and position America as the global leader in clean energy technology and clean energy jobs,” according to the White House fact sheet.

    But look as recently as 2009, when Congress passed the the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act during President Barack Obama’s administration.

    That $831 billion spending package made lots of promises, including to save jobs and create new ones, but waste — and possibly some fraud — tainted the outcomes.

    Often referenced as a what-not-to-do in stimulus financing, solar panel start-up Solyndra cost taxpayers $570 million.

    The company received $535 million in loans from the 2009 stimulus and a $25 million tax break from California’s agency for alternative energy.

    Solyndra said it would use the $535 million to invest in generating solar energy.

    But a report from the Inspector General’s Office later found that the company misled the U.S. Department of Energy in its application and that the department did not manage and approve Solyndra’s loan guarantee properly.

    In 2011, Solyndra filed for bankruptcy, laid off its 1,100 employees and ended its operations.

    About six months before closing shop, the company also received $10.3 million in long-term credit from the U.S. Export-Import Bank for its exports to Belgium.

    To prevent a repeat, the American public and Congress should ask questions of Biden’s recent proposal, vet the companies and projects, get bipartisan support, and then audit “every dime” of the spending on the projects.

    The #WasteOfTheDay is presented by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 04/15/2021 – 19:50

  • NY Advisory Firm COO Pleads Guilty To Over $100 Million "Ponzi-Like" Scheme
    NY Advisory Firm COO Pleads Guilty To Over $100 Million “Ponzi-Like” Scheme

    The Department of Justice U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Southern District of New York yesterday announced that a managing partner and COO at New York-based investment advisory firm International Investment Group (“IIG”) had pled guilty to “investment adviser fraud, securities fraud, and wire fraud offenses in connection with an over $100 million scheme” to defraud his clients. 

    Martin Silver pled guilty to perpetrating a scheme that lasted more than 10 years, the release said. He created “fictitious investments” and overvalued investments used to generate funds “to pay off earlier investors in a Ponzi-like manner,” the Department of Justice said.

    The release said that from 2007 to 2019, Silver conspired to defraud investors in IIG-managed funds by:

    • (i) overvaluing distressed loans held by the IIG Funds

    • (ii) falsifying paperwork to create a series of fake loans that were classified, fraudulently, as positively performing loans, and to otherwise hide losses

    • (iii) selling overvalued and fake loans to a collateralized loan obligation trust and new private funds established and advised by IIG

    • (iv) using the proceeds from those fraudulent sales to generate liquidity required to pay off earlier investors in a Ponzi-like manner.

    The 63 year old pled guilty to “one count of conspiracy to commit investment adviser fraud, securities fraud, and wire fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of five years in prison; one count of securities fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison, and one count of wire fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison.”

    He will be sentenced in November 2021. 

    Manhattan U.S. Attorney Audrey Strauss commented: “Today, Martin Silver admitted to participating in a sophisticated, decade-long scheme to defraud IIG funds and investors, abandoning his fiduciary responsibilities to IIG’s clients, and causing millions of dollars of losses.  My Office remains committed to policing investment advisers who seek to take advantage of their clients for personal and professional gain.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 04/15/2021 – 19:30

  • Taliban Promises 'Nightmare' For US Troops If They Stay Past May 1st
    Taliban Promises ‘Nightmare’ For US Troops If They Stay Past May 1st

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    Since President Biden is breaking the US-Taliban peace deal by pushing back the May 1st withdrawal deadline to September 11th, the Taliban said it is ready to attack US troops again and turn the final months of Washington’s almost twenty-year-old war into a “nightmare.”

    Mullah Salih Khan, a Taliban commander in the Helmand Province, told The Daily Beast on Wednesday that the group is prepared to strike “very much prepared to strike” US and Afghan government forces, warning that the Taliban will turn Afghanistan “into a nightmare” for them.

    Via EPA/RFERL

    Mullah Mujahid Rahman, a Taliban subcommander from the Ghazni province, also said the group was ready to fight the US. He said the US has “proven they can’t be trusted after retreating from the May 1st deadline” and that the Taliban is willing to “fight till the end” of the US occupation.

    “We have the pride of defeating about 100,000 invaders from [different] countries in Afghanistan. A few thousand won’t be a problem at all,” he said.

    Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid delivered a warning via Twitter on Wednesday. “If the agreement is breached and foreign forces fail to exit our country on the specified date, problems will certainly be compounded and those whom failed to comply with the agreement will be held liable,” he said.

    Since the US-Taliban deal was signed in Doha in February 2020, no US troops have died in combat in Afghanistan. Leading up to President Biden’s decision on Afghanistan, the Taliban has been clear that they will again target US troops if they remain in the country beyond May 1st.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Formally announcing his plan on Wednesday, President Biden tried to frame his new timeline as being compliant with the deal. But instead of leaving Afghanistan by May 1st, Biden is starting the withdrawal process on that date with the goal of completing it before September 11th.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 04/15/2021 – 19:10

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