Aug 16

Today’s News 16th August 2021

  • The Gradual Death Of EU Coal Production
    The Gradual Death Of EU Coal Production

    Coal has been experiencing a gradual death in the EU over the last few decades, at least in terms of production on European soil.

    New figures from Eurostat show that in 1990, EU production totaled 277.4 million tonnes and as Statista’s Martin Armstrong shows in the infographic below, that has fallen steadily since, with just 56.5 million tonnes in 2020, churned out almost exclusively by Poland.

    Infographic: The Gradual Death of EU Coal Production | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Germany is the most notable absence from the 2020 figures, having accounted for 27 percent 30 years ago.

    While production in Czechia has halved over the time period, it was the only country alongside Poland to contribute towards the industry in 2020.

    Spain, France and all other member states have also disappeared in the latest figures.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 08/16/2021 – 02:45

  • Lockdown Created 1 Million New Alcoholics In England
    Lockdown Created 1 Million New Alcoholics In England

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    Official data shows that England’s lockdown caused an extra 1 million people to become addicted to alcohol since the start of the pandemic.

    Before the pandemic began, government polling indicated that there were around 1.5 million alcoholics in the country, meaning people who drank at least 50 units every week.

    “But this jumped to just shy of 2.5 million this summer, which experts have blamed on the endless cycle of virus-controlling restrictions,” reports the Daily Mail.

    According to alcohol abuse expert Dr Tony Rao of King’s College London, “The impact of the Covid pandemic on alcohol use has been devastating. The latest data, taken together with the highest number of alcohol-specific deaths on record, is a stark warning for the Government.”

    Alcohol charities are warning of a crisis “that is happening now” after Public Health England revealed that “deaths directly caused by alcohol soared by 20% during the first year of the pandemic.”

    As we highlighted earlier, young children’s cognitive development during lockdown was also severely impaired as a result of a lack of human interaction and mask mandates.

    The true impact of lockdowns on the health and well-being of both young and old won’t be properly known until years into the future.

    However, studies already undertaken into the devastation it will cause are chilling.

    A data analyst consortium in South Africa concluded that the economic consequences of the country’s lockdown would lead to 29 times more people dying than the coronavirus itself.

    As we previously reported, Academics from Duke, Harvard, and Johns Hopkins have concluded that there could be around a million excess deaths over the next two decades as a result of lockdowns.

    Back in June, Stanford University professor of medicine Jay Bhattacharya warned that in years to come lockdowns will be looked back upon as the most catastrophically harmful policy in “all of history.”

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 08/16/2021 – 02:00

  • Why The NARA Secrecy Over The Secret JFK Records?
    Why The NARA Secrecy Over The Secret JFK Records?

    Authored by Jacob Hornberger via The Future of Freedom Foundation,

    For some unknown reason, there seems to be some secrecy on the part of the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) over the still-secret 58-year-old records of the CIA and other federal agencies relating to the Kennedy assassination.

    On July 29, 2021, I submitted the following request for information through the NARA website:

    Would you please advise me whether any federal agencies, especially the CIA, have expressed an interest in seeking an extension of time for continued secrecy with respect to the JFK records that are set to be released in October?

    On August 10, I received the following email from NARA:

    Dear Mr. Jacob Hornberger,

    After looking into your request, we are able to confirm that at this time NARA and other federal agencies are in the process of reviewing JFK assassination records in accordance with the requirements of the President John F. Kennedy Assassination Records Collection Act of 1992 and the April 26, 2018, Presidential Memorandum on Certification for Certain Records Related to the Assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Similar to the 2017-2018 release, NARA plans to make the releasable records from the 2021 review available on the National Archives website.  More details will be communicated as updates arrive.

    Sincerely,
    Ashney Randle
    Special Access & FOIA Program

    On August 10, I sent the following email to Ms. Randle:

    Dear Ms. Randle,

    Thank you for your email. It provides interesting information, for which I am appreciative.

    Unfortunately, however, your email does not answer my question, which is: “Would you please advise me whether any federal agencies, especially the CIA, have expressed an interest in seeking an extension of time for continued secrecy with respect to the JFK records that are set to be released in October?”

    Was this an oversight? Or is there some reason why this information has to remain secret?

    Thank you for your time and continued attention to this matter.

    Sincerely,
    Jacob Hornberger

    On August 10, Ms. Randle sent me the following email:

    Dear Mr. Jacob Hornberger,

    As we were looking for an answer to your request, unfortunately, this is all the information that the National Archives has concerning the JFK records scheduled for release in October. While we understand this is not an ideal answer to your question, we do know that as updates become available, they will be posted online on the National Archives website.

    Sincerely,
    Ashney Randle
    Special Access & FOIA Program

    On August 10, I sent the following email to Ms. Randle:

    Dear Ms. Randle,

    I refer to the following excerpt from President Trump’s April 18, 2018, memorandum entitled “Certification for Certain Records Related to the Assassination of President John F. Kennedy” (https://fas.org/sgp/trump/jfk-cert.pdf):

    “Any agency that seeks further postponement beyond October 26, 2021, shall, no later than April 26, 2021, identify to the Archivist the specific basis for concluding that records (or portions of records) satisfy the standard for continued postponement under section 5(g)(2)(D) of the Act. Thereafter, the Archivist shall recommend to the President, no later than September 26, 2021, whether continued withholding from public disclosure of the identified records is warranted after October 26, 2021.”

    All I am asking for is whether any agency has, in fact, “identified to the Archivist the specific basis for concluding that records (or portions of records) satisfy the standard for continued postponement” and, if so, the names of such agencies.

    It seems to me that disclosing that information, one way or the other, would be a rather simple thing to do. Or is there a reason why such information has to be kept secret?

    Thank you for your time and your continued attention to this matter.

    Jacob Hornberger

    After that email, I failed to receive any more emails from Ms. Randle, and given her last email to me on August 10, I don’t expect to receive a direct answer to my question. (If I do, I will update this blog post.)

    That raises the obvious question: Why the secrecy on this particular question? Why not openly and publicly disclose now whether the CIA or other federal agencies have expressed an interest in another extension of time for secrecy of their official JFK assassination-related records? 

    Or to be more specific, why not disclose now, openly and publicly, whether “any agency that seeks further postponement beyond October 26, 2021 [has identified] to the Archivist the specific basis for concluding that records (or portions of records) satisfy the standard for continued postponement under section 5(g)(2)(D) of the Act.”

    It’s one thing to keep the official JFK assassination-related records of the CIA and other federal agencies secret after almost 60 years. But it’s quite another thing to keep secret whether the CIA and other federal agencies have expressed an interest to the National Archives for more years (or decades) of official secrecy of their official assassination-related records.

    If NARA were to disclose now whether the CIA and other federal agencies have expressed an interest in seeking more time for secrecy, the American people could begin discussing whether such a request should be granted. They could also be writing op-eds and editorials on the matter. They could be expressing their opinions to the members of Congress as well as to President Biden. Keeping such expressions of interest secret until the last minute leading up to the October 26 deadline naturally tends to suppress such discussions.

    Isn’t it bad enough to keep official assassination-related records secret after almost six decades? Doesn’t it just compound the problem when the National Archives keeps secret whether the CIA or other federal agencies have expressed an interest in another extension of time for secrecy?

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 23:30

  • Tropics Awaken With Three Storms In Focus
    Tropics Awaken With Three Storms In Focus

    We reminded readers earlier this month that statistically speaking, the busiest part of the Atlantic hurricane season has begun and will peak around Sept. 10. As of Sunday evening, there are three systems in the tropics that we’re watching. 

    The first is Tropical Storm Fred that will impact southeast Alabama, Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the western Carolinas beginning on Monday afternoon. Torrential rains are expected across the Southeast US through Wednesday. 

    The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is expecting dangerous storm surges across the Florida Panhandle. 

    The next system we’re watching is Tropical Depression Grace which is set to unleash heavy rainfall that could result in flash floods across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti beginning on Monday afternoon. 

    The third system on our radar is Invest 96L, located northeast of Bermuda, and has continued to become better organized on Sunday evening. There’s a 90% chance the system could be upgraded to a depression in the next 48 hours. 

    “If this trend continues, advisories will likely be initiated on a new tropical depression later tonight. The system is forecast to move slowly toward the south or southwest during the next day or so, and then turn westward on Tuesday, passing near or just east and south of Bermuda,” NHC wrote in its latest tropical weather outlook. 

    With three systems to watch to start the week, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters believe a busy hurricane season is ahead. 

    Source: Bloomberg 

    The quiet period appears to be over, and the tropics are beginning to heat up.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 23:00

  • Nixon's Gold Treachery Made Me A Cynic
    Nixon’s Gold Treachery Made Me A Cynic

    Authored by James Bovard via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    Fifty years ago, on August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon announced that the U.S. government would cease honoring its pledge to pay gold to redeem the dollars held by foreign central banks. Nixon declared he was taking “action necessary to defend the dollar against the speculators.” But there was no way to defend the dollar against politicians. Nixon touted his default as therapy for his tormented fellow citizens, promising it would “help us snap out of the self-doubt, the self-disparagement that saps our energy and erodes our confidence in ourselves.” Nixon wrapped his decree with lofty political rhetoric, appealing to the nation’s “greatest ideals” and promising a “new prosperity” that “befits a great people.”

    The dollar thus became a fiat currency – something which possessed value solely because politicians said so. Nixon spurred the Federal Reserve to create an artificial boom to boost his reelection campaign. To suppress the damage from a flood of new money, he imposed wage and price controls, making it a crime to raise prices without government permission.

    At that time, I was working in a peach orchard in rural Virginia for 10 hours a day, reaping $1.40 an hour and all the peach fuzz I could take home on my arms and neck. Nixon’s wage controls doomed any chance of getting that raise to $1.45 an hour. But no loss – I was leaving that job soon to go back to high school. I was 15 at that time and an avid coin collector. I soaked up the rage at the reckless federal policies that permeated Coin News and other numismatic publications.  “Government as scoundrel” was the theme of many editorials and articles I read in those periodicals in the following months and years. I had no savvy on economics but my gut sense told me something was profoundly amiss. Nixon’s decree spurred my reading and researching. 

    Nixon’s gold default was also a landmark for America’s rising economic and political illiteracy. In the era of this nation’s birth, currency was often recognized as a character issue – specifically, the contemptible character of politicians. Shortly before the 1787 Constitutional Convention, George Washington warned that unsecured paper money will “ruin commerce, oppress the honest, and open the door to every species of fraud and injustice.” The Coinage Age of 1792 established gold and silver as the foundation for the nation’s currency and authorized a death penalty for anyone who debased the nation’s gold or silver coins.

    Unfortunately, politicians later exempted themselves from penalties for debasing the currency. In 1933, the U.S. had the largest gold reserves of any nation in the world. But fear of devaluation spurred a panic, which President Franklin Roosevelt exploited to seize people’s gold. FDR denounced anyone who refused to turn in their gold as a “hoarder.” Any citizen caught with more than $100 in gold coins faced ten years in prison and a $250,000 fine. (The penalty was not as harsh the Soviet Union’s death penalty for anyone caught “hoarding” wheat from a collective farm.)

    FDR asserted that banning private ownership of gold was necessary to give government “freedom of action” – which he quickly exploited by devaluing the dollar by 59% with a decree raising the value of gold from $20 an ounce to $35 an ounce. Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau hailed the gold policy as part of the administration’s “plans for a restoration of public confidence,” but the de facto default on government debts set the precedent for boundless federal arbitrariness for the rest of the decade. FDR tried every trick to drive up prices, foolishly confident that a mere change in numerical prices would spawn prosperity. The resulting inflation was invoked in the early 1940s to help justify imposing payroll tax withholding.

    In the mid-1960s, the dollar was under pressure from perennial federal deficit spending and President Lyndon Johnson responded by eliminating all the silver in new dimes and quarters. After severing the dollar’s link to silver, LBJ demanded that the Federal Reserve pump up the economy. He even summoned Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin to his Texas ranch and “physically beat him, he slammed him against the wall, and said, ‘Martin, my boys are dying in Vietnam, and you won’t print the money I need,’” according to Dallas Federal Reserve president Richard Fisher. Since LBJ didn’t murder Martin at his ranch, the media could continue to portray the Federal Reserve as “independent” of political control. The Fed accommodated LBJ sufficiently that the inflation rate more than tripled between 1964 to 1968, rising from 1.3% to 4.3%. The rising inflation set the scene for Nixon’s gold repudiation.

    FDR’s prohibition on private gold ownership contained a loophole for rare coins with numismatic value. Luckily, the feds did not vigorously police that exemption. By 1973, I was buying Mexican and French gold pieces to save and to sell to high school classmates and others. After I got laid off from a construction job in the summer of 1974, I saw it as a sign from God (or at least from the market) that I should buy more gold. I liquidated most of my coin collection and put all my available cash into gold and also took out a consumer finance loan at 18% to purchase even more. That interest rate was the gauge of my blind confidence. I had been closely following gold prices and was convinced a price spike was coming. Nixon’s resignation in August did wonders for the price of gold.

    I didn’t get rich but made enough to help cover my costs for sporadically attending Virginia Tech, with some money left over to pay for my first literary strikeouts. Though Nixon assured the nation in 1971 that “the effect of this action… will be to stabilize the dollar,” the “Nixon Shock” was “followed by a decade of one of the worst inflations of American history and the most stagnant economy since the Great Depression. The price of gold rose to $800 from $35,” as Lewis Lehrman noted. Americans have suffered 570% inflation since Nixon “stabilized” the dollar.

    Nixon’s gold decree and other policies helped me recognize that politicians are far more perfidious than the media portrays. If the government would intentionally destroy the value of the currency, I wondered what else it was undermining. The Watergate scandal provided further evidence of “politician” as synonym for “damn rascal.” The dissolution of the Vietnam War clinched the case as Americans learned how presidents had conned the nation into a pointless Asian bloodbath. Gas shortages and gas lines beginning in late 1973 confirmed that any cadre of “best and brightest” in Washington was an optical illusion.

    Fifty years after Nixon’s betrayal, America is again facing rapidly increasing inflation. The Biden administration is embracing almost boundless deficit spending in its quest to throw unrestricted free money at any non-millionaire who might vote for Democratic candidates. Most of the fawning media coverage on Biden policies is as economically illiterate as the cheerleaders for Nixon’s chicanery long ago. If the government continues on this path, it is only a question of time until fresh debacles result. But from the economic wreckage, a new generation of cynics may arise who do a far better job of putting politicians back on a leash.   

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 22:30

  • Deep Diving For Metals: Visualizing Ocean Mining
    Deep Diving For Metals: Visualizing Ocean Mining

    The mining sector has been one of the biggest beneficiaries in the COVID-19 recovery.

    Several countries’ recovery packages have ignited demand for commodities like copper, iron ore and lithium. Given that more metals are necessary for electrification and the clean energy transition, many companies are looking at an unexplored market: ocean mining.

    Mining of the Deep Sea is still under study but metals are abundant on the seafloor. Reserves are estimated to be worth anywhere from $8 trillion to more than $16 trillion.

    Visual Capitalist provides this infographic from Prospector provides a visual overview of the seabed mining process.

    Down in the Depths

    The most prolific area for ocean mining is the Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, between Hawaii and Mexico. Almost 20 international mining companies have contracts to explore the region which spans over 5,000 kilometers.

    Most of the metals are found in potato-sized rock-like polymetallic nodules. Millions of years old, the nodules grow by absorbing metals from the seawater, expanding slowly around the core of shell, bone, or rock.

    Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts

    It is estimated that there are 21 billion tonnes of polymetallic nodules resting on the ocean floor in the CCZ, containing an estimated:

    • 6 billion tonnes of manganese

    • 226 million tonnes of copper – about 25% of land-based reserves

    • 94,000 tonnes of cobalt – about six times as much as current land-based reserves

    • 270 million tonnes of nickel – 100 times the annual global nickel production in 2019

    Cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts are found on the sides of underwater mountain ranges and seamounts. Similar to nodules, these crusts form over millions of years as metal compounds in the water. Roughly 57% of them are located in the Pacific.

    Polymetallic sulfide deposits formed after seawater seeps into volcanic rocks can be found along tectonic plate boundaries on the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, and the Atlantic Ocean.

    How Does Ocean Mining Work?

    Extraction of minerals from the seafloor is planned to involve either modified dredging (for nodules), cutting (for massive sulphides and crusts), and transport of the material as a slurry in a riser or basket system to a surface support vessel.

    The mineral-bearing material is then processed in a ship (cleaning and dewatering – with the wastewater and sediment being returned to the ocean) and then transferred to a barge for transport to shore where it will be further processed to extract the target metals.

    Towards a Greener Future

    Growing demand for batteries to power electric cars and store wind and solar energy has driven up the cost of many metals and bolstered the business case for seabed mining.

    According to a study published in the Journal of Cleaner Production, producing battery metals from nodules could reduce emissions of CO² by 70-75%,  cut land use by 94% and eliminate 100% of solid waste.

    Here is a look at how ocean and land mining compares:

     

    Source: The Metals Company

     

    The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) has so far approved 28 exploration contracts in the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans, covering 1.3 million square kilometers of the ocean floor.

    With many companies turning their eyes to the unexplored riches of the ocean, seabed mining could offer a wealth of untapped minerals on the ocean floor.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 22:00

  • Eviction Moratorium: A Postmortem On Private Property
    Eviction Moratorium: A Postmortem On Private Property

    Authored by Michael Milano via The Libertarian Institute, 

    At the beseeching of congressional Democrats and the fanatical urgings of Nancy Pelosi, who called the extension of the federal eviction moratorium a “moral imperative,” the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued a new nationwide ban on evictions for counties with heightened levels of coronavirus community transmission. This latest CDC order comes in spite of President Biden’s candid admission that “the bulk of the constitutional scholarship says it’s not likely to pass constitutional muster.” In The Ethics of Liberty, Murray Rothbard attests that the “right to contract is strictly derivable from the right of private property.” If private property is a keystone for prosperous societies and a fundamental tenant of common law, what happens in the aftermath of the vitiation of millions of private contracts?

    A brief recap. In March 2020 under the CARES Act, an eviction moratorium was applied to all dwelling units participating in federal assistance programs. Invoking the Public Health Service Act of 1944, the CDC broadened the moratorium to cover all rental properties countrywide in September 2020. The CDC’s unprecedented unilateral expansion was rationalized as a reasonable measure to combat the spread of COVID-19 by preventing crowded living conditions that would stem from mass evictions and by facilitating self-isolation. This decree, initially slated to end after three months, had been extended on five separate occasions. Rent protection programs have additionally been enacted at the state level. In some states these eviction moratoriums are scheduled to expire over the upcoming weeks. In others, they are set to continue indefinitely.

    Image source: City limits

    In consonance with the ethos of a free society, the United States Constitution is a document grounded in natural rights, conceived to protect private property. The Founding Fathers did not include a universal pandemic exception. The Fifth Amendment states that no one shall be “deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law,” but does permit private property to be expropriated with just compensation (e.g., eminent domain). The Fourteenth Amendment guarantees due process protection at the state level. According to the Contract Clause, no state “may pass a law impairing the obligation of contracts.” During the eviction moratorium however, contractual obligations were voided, property was despotically taken with no compensation, and liberty was deprived without a hearing.

    For many painstaking months, landlords have been stripped of their rights to freely use their property, while being forced to fulfill legal duties for squatters. Courts at the district level ruled the CDC’s edict unconstitutional, yet the moratorium persisted. In June 2021, the Supreme Court chimed in, allowing the eviction moratoriums to stand in the case of Alabama Association of Realtors v. Department of Health and Human Services. However, Justice Brett Kavanaugh clearly stated that the CDC exceeded its authority, that congressional authorization would be required for a moratorium extension, and that his deciding vote was cast only due to the fact that a few weeks remained before the moratorium was set to expire. Nevertheless, in open defiance of the Supreme Court ruling, the CDC issued their slightly scaled back, 60 day ban on evictions, at the beginning of August.

    A dangerous precedent has been established. If eviction moratoriums are deemed a lawful intervention, why shouldn’t the seizing of private property be used to quell future “crises”? Will the current fallout include landlords abandoning the industry, or will rents be raised to offset uncertainty risks as speculated by Jeff Deist? How do members of a society continue to confidently form agreements when the trust associated with contract enforcement erodes?

    When taking this all into account, proponents of strict constitutionalism are inevitably forced to reconcile their philosophy in the face of a swelling regulatory state, led by power mongering aspiring autocrats, who perceive the founding documents as ignorable relics. None of this should be overly surprising given that politicians and bureaucrats are perversely incentivized to perpetually expand the size of government. In spite of illusions of separated powers, regardless of whether the reigns are wielded by Democrats or Republicans, when the state is the ultimate arbiter, even in cases involving itself, justice becomes an empty abstraction distributed to gain political favor.

    Applying one set of ethical standards to the citizenry and another to the state is hypocrisy and downright immoral. In a system that preserves property rights, a creditor may grant a debtor forgiveness solely for obligations between the two parties. As Lysander Spooner wrote in No Treason: The Constitution of No Authority:

    “A man’s natural rights are his own, against the whole world; and any infringement of them is equally a crime; whether committed by one man, or by millions; whether committed by one man, calling himself a robber, or by millions calling themselves a government.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 21:30

  • These Are The World's Fastest Growing Cities
    These Are The World’s Fastest Growing Cities

    By 2025, the world’s population will reach over 8.1 billion people.

    Most of that population growth will be concentrated in cities across Africa and Asia. To help paint a detailed picture, Visual Caitalist’s Avery Koop uses data from the United Nations to rank the top 20 fastest growing cities in the world in terms of average annual growth rate from 2020 to 2025.

    Full Speed Ahead

    The majority of the world’s fastest growing cities are located in Africa—in fact, 17 of the 20 are located on the continent, with four of the 20 cities being located in Nigeria specifically.

    Population growth is booming across the entire continent, as many countries retain high birth rates. According to the World Bank, the 2019 fertility rate (births per woman) in Sub-Saharan Africa was 4.6, compared to the global fertility rate of 2.4.

    Nigeria’s economy is largely based on petroleum which has resulted in the country becoming one of the strongest economies in Africa. This, coupled with a high birth rate and a resulting young population, has given the country a strong and rising workforce.

    However, the population growth in Nigeria is both a blessing and a curse. The success of the economy, among other factors, has resulted in excessive rural-to-urban migration. This mass exodus from rural areas has led to less farming, which means the country now needs to import basic food staples at a high cost.

    In Mozambique, Tete and Quelimane are growing 5.56% and 5.14% respectively. The country is expected to experience strong economic growth after facing contractions due to the pandemic. Forecasts predict that the Mozambiques’s economy will grow 4% by 2022.

    Implications of Fast Growth

    All of the top 20 fastest growing cities are located in either Africa or Asia, and they are far outpacing growth on other continents, such as Europe, for example.

    Fastest Growing Cities: Europe vs. Global

    By 2050, Sub-Saharan Africa will be home to close to 2 billion people and roughly half will be under the age of 25. This represents an enormous labor force and opportunities for innovation and growth. In fact, in navigating the pandemic, Africa is already starting to capitalize on digital advances in both traditional and new sectors.

    China has its eye on Africa, as evidenced through their multiple investments in infrastructure projects in the continent. Additionally, NATO countries have recently committed to investing similar amounts in Africa to counter China’s influence.

    In spite of the economic potential, increased city sizes could be problematic for some of these countries. They will need to adapt to the issues associated with mass urbanization, like pollution, overcrowding, and high costs of living.

    Changing Tides

    Population booms can lead to massive economic growth, a larger (and younger) working population, and a growing domestic consumer market.

    As the aforementioned cities continue their rapid expansion, and as people continue to flock to growing megacities in Africa and Asia, it could represent the beginning of an important economic shift that is worth keeping an eye on.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 21:00

  • Judge Orders Biden Administration To Resume 'Remain In Mexico' Policy
    Judge Orders Biden Administration To Resume ‘Remain In Mexico’ Policy

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A federal judge on Friday said the Biden administration must resume a policy that sees asylum seekers wait in Mexico for their claims to be heard.

    A group of illegal immigrants crosses the Rio Grande from Acuna, Mexico, to Del Rio, Texas, on July 25, 2021. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

    The Department of Homeland Security “failed to consider several critical factors” before axing the Trump era “Remain in Mexico” policy, U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk, a Trump appointee, found.

    That included ignoring how the program was beginning to lead to some immigrants with asylum claims that lacked merit voluntarily returning home, he wrote in a 53-page ruling.

    Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on June 1 of this year formally ended “Remain in Mexico,” though in practice it was stopped when President Joe Biden entered office on Jan. 20. In a memorandum (pdf) to top immigration officials, Mayorkas said a review determined the policy “does not adequately or sustainably enhance border management in such a way as to justify the program’s extensive operational burdens and other shortfalls.”

    “Over the course of the program, border encounters increased during certain periods and decreased during others. Moreover, in making my assessment, I share the belief that we can only manage migration in an effective, responsible, and durable manner if we approach the issue comprehensively, looking well beyond our own borders,” he wrote.

    The memo fails to mention some of the primary benefits of the program, which is known as MPP, Kacsmaryk said.

    “At the very least, the Secretary was required to show a reasoned decision for discounting the benefits of MPP. Instead, the June 1 Memorandum does not address the problems created by false claims of asylum or how MPP addressed those problems. Likewise, it does not address the fact that DHS previously found that ‘approximately 9 out of 10 asylum claims from Northern Triangle countries are ultimately found non-meritorious by federal immigration judges,’ and that MPP discouraged such aliens from traveling and attempting to cross the border in the first place,” he said.

    That made the policy change both arbitrary and capricious, the judge added. The Administrative Procedure Act states that agency actions that are “arbitrary, capricious, or an abuse of discretion” are ripe for being overturned by courts.

    Kacsmaryk ordered the Biden administration to resume MPP, though he stayed his order for seven days to let the federal government seek emergency relief at an appeals court.

    Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican who brought the lawsuit with the state of Missouri, said the ruling showed the Biden administration “unlawfully tried to shut down the legal and effective Remain-in-Mexico program.”

    Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, another Republican, described the ruling as a “huge win for border security and the rule of law.”

    The Biden administration did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

    Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is seen at a Customs and Border Protection processing facility in Donna, Texas, on May 7, 2021. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

    The Trump administration established MPP in 2019 to deal with a surge in illegal immigration. Former President Donald Trump successfully partnered with Mexico to start the program, which saw the U.S. send some asylum seekers back to Mexico until their claims were heard.

    Kirstjen Nielsen, who served as Homeland Security secretary during the Trump administration, said when the program was first implemented that it was in response to “a security and humanitarian crisis on the Southern border.”

    “MPP will help restore a safe and orderly immigration process, decrease the number of those taking advantage of the immigration system, and the ability of smugglers and traffickers to prey on vulnerable populations, and reduce threats to life, national security, and public safety, while ensuring that vulnerable populations receive the protections they need,” she said in a statement at the time.

    Biden and top officials this year have reversed or altered a number of key Trump-era immigration policies. The United States has seen a leap in illegal border crossings, culminating in a new 21-year-high in July.

    Mayorkas, Biden, and others have repeatedly blamed Trump, claiming his administration’s policies were “inhumane” and needed changing. That process takes time, they’ve said.

    Speaking about the border crossings during a visit in Texas this week, Mayorkas said one reason for them was “the end of the cruel policies of the past administration, and the restoration of the rule of laws of this country that Congress has passed, including our asylum laws that provide humanitarian relief.”

    Trump “slashed our international assistance to Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, slashed the resources that we were contributing to address the root causes of a right of irregular migration,” he added later.

    Stephen Miller, a top immigration adviser to Trump during the previous administration, called Mayorkas “a pathological liar” in response.

    “He inherited the most secure border—& the most effective enforcement regime—in history,” Miller wrote on Twitter. “The *sole* cause of the present border disaster was Biden’s decision to reverse the Trump program & replace it with sovereignty-erasing catch-and-release.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 20:30

  • Biden To Address Crisis In Afghanistan "In Next Few Days"
    Biden To Address Crisis In Afghanistan “In Next Few Days”

    With both Americans, and the world, seeking some guidance – if not leadership – from the US during the chaos unfolding in Afghanistan which has seen both the capital Kabul and the US embassy fall to the Taliban in several frenetic hours…

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    … CNN announced that President Biden – who has been holed up in Camp David – is expected to address the nation in the next few days about the crisis in Afghanistan.

    According to the report, one option under discussion is to have Biden return to the White House, though the official cautioned that they had not completely ruled out making the remarks from Camp David.

    Earlier today, CNN’s Jeff Zeleny reported that while Biden can receive the same level of briefings from Camp David, as he has been doing throughout the weekend, officials are aware of the optics of the President being out of town during this perilous moment.

    Several administration officials have also been on vacation, but began returning to work remotely Sunday or in the West Wing.

    Earlier today, the White House twitter account sent out a photo showing Biden holding a video conference with the national security team and senior officials “to hear updates on the draw down of our civilian personnel in Afghanistan, evacuations of SIV applicants and other Afghan allies, and the ongoing security situation in Kabul.” The photo was quickly panned by a former Navy bomb squad team member among others, for clearly showing the face of the Doha station chief, outing him in the process.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 20:04

  • Where Schools Have To Follow Mask Mandates
    Where Schools Have To Follow Mask Mandates

    Tensions are running high in U.S. states which are banning mask requirements in schools as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes that more and more school districts are deciding to go against governors and mandate masks anyways. Among the states in question, Florida and South Carolina have seen the biggest surges of new COVID-19 infections recently.

    In Texas, which is one of the eight states which does not allow mask requirements in schools, Governor Greg Abbott has tweeted that schools going against the grain will be sued. Several counties meanwhile won injunctions against Abbott’s ban, but these remain temporary. A similar ruling was issued in Arkansas on Friday while a Florida county circuit judge is expected to hold a hearing on the issue tomorrow.

    In addition to schools, challenges to the governor-issued bans on mask requirements also extend to government buildings and other government entities. But since children under the age of 12 cannot yet be vaccinated, questions around masks in schools are especially contentious and mask use for all K-12 students and teachers continues to be recommended by the CDC.

    According to Pew Charitable Trust, ten states and the District of Colombia still mandate masks to be worn in schools.

    Infographic: Where Schools Have to Follow Mask Mandates | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    For most of these states, a general indoor mask mandate for the unvaccinated also remains in place. Only Hawaii, Louisiana, D.C. and most recently, Oregon, have continued or returned to mandating masks worn indoors by everyone.

    In New Jersey and Delaware, mask mandates extend only to schools, while New York does it the other way round, asking unvaccinated people to wear masks indoors while leaving the decision about masks in schools up to the districts.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 20:00

  • Wall Street Journal Proves It Doesn't Understand Gold
    Wall Street Journal Proves It Doesn’t Understand Gold

    Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

    Gold bugs should never assume that the mainstream investing community actually understands finance.

    That includes the Wall Street Journal, which recently published an article (Gold as an Inflation Hedge: What the Past 50 Years Teaches Us) purporting to show that gold does not protect against a depreciating currency.

    The article begins with a couple of subheads…

    On the anniversary of the metal’s unleashing by Nixon, gold’s believers may be disappointed by the record

    Investors often think that gold is the answer to inflation. It’s not that simple, as the past 50 years have shown.

    …and then attempts to prove those points graphically with a chart comparing gold to stocks and bonds:

    Its conclusion? Pretty much everything has gone up since the US left the gold standard in 1971, and the things that went up most – stocks — are by definition the best “inflation hedges,” while bonds are just about as good as gold.

    So what’s wrong with this argument?

    Simply put, gold is not an “investment”. It is money.

    You don’t own it in place of Amazon stock or Treasury bonds, you own it in place of the dollars that might otherwise be in your pocket, your bank account, or under your mattress.

    Here’s a picture that’s as clear as the previous one is obscure.

    Two piles of dollars and coins.

    The one on the right is the amount that was required to buy an ounce of gold in 1920.

    The other, massive pile is the number of dollars it takes to buy an ounce of gold today.

    The upshot: gold has protected its owners’ purchasing power while the dollar has been depreciated to oblivion. That is the definition of “inflation hedge.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 19:30

  • These Are The Best-Selling Vehicles In The World By Country
    These Are The Best-Selling Vehicles In The World By Country

    Each country has different preferences for goods, and vehicles are no different.

    Consumers in a dense country might prefer smaller cars, while countries with wide expanses (and parking spots) open the way for larger trucks. Likewise, rugged terrain might call for vehicles that can adapt and scale quickly.

    And, as Visual Capitalists’ Omri Wallach notes, it’s also a question of which manufacturer invested in the country. As the world’s largest automakers have raced to attract consumers in every corner of the globe, they built factories, renamed models, and even built specific cars to fit the tastes of individual countries.

    This infographic from Budget Direct Car Insurance highlights the best-selling vehicles in the world, using 2019 year-end sales data.

    What is the Most Popular Vehicle in Each Country?

    Though the map might vary across the board, one thing is certain: Toyota’s dominance.

    The Japanese automaker—which was also the most valuable automaker in the world for many years before being overtaken by Tesla—had the best-selling vehicle in 41 countries of the 104 countries tallied.

    It also had the world’s best-selling vehicle in 2019, the Toyota Corolla, though the sedan only took the top spot itself in five countries.

     

    As the best-seller in 16 countries, the Toyota Hilux truck (also known as the Toyota Pickup in North America) was the top vehicle in the most countries. It has a noticeably strong market share in the Southern Hemisphere, including in Argentina, South Africa, and Australia.

     

    The other consistent factor was the strength of local manufacturers. Many countries with large automakers had local models as the best-selling vehicles, especially in Europe.

     

    Cars are the Best-Selling Vehicles in the World

     

    So what do car consumers currently prefer? Currently, cars have a slight edge over trucks as the best-selling vehicles in the world.

    Of the 104 countries with sales tallied for the study, smaller cars often classified as “passenger vehicles” (including sedans, hatchbacks, and subcompacts) made up the majority of best-sellers, with 57 of the best-selling vehicles by country.

    Meanwhile, “light trucks” or “light commercial vehicles,” which include trucks, SUVs, and vans, were best-sellers in 47 countries.

    Best-Selling Vehicles by Type

    • Hatchback: 12

    • Sedan: 25

    • Sedan/Wagon: 1

    • Subcompact: 19

    • SUV: 20

    • Truck: 24

    • Van: 3

    But changing car consumption preferences are already making their mark. The electric vehicle (EV) Tesla Model 3 was already the best-selling vehicle in both the Netherlands and Norway, and other countries like China are increasing incentives for consumers to purchase EVs.

    That’s not even factoring in the slowdown of travel during the COVID pandemic, more workers going remote, and the semiconductor strain on automakers. A truly post-COVID world will likely transform the map even further.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 19:00

  • Rickards: Is A Global Liquidity Crisis Underway?
    Rickards: Is A Global Liquidity Crisis Underway?

    Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

    I’ve been analyzing currency wars for years. In fact, I’ve written a book called Currency Wars, so I have some expertise in the subject.

    A new front in the currency wars is emerging, but it has not yet erupted into blatant currency manipulation. That will probably come in early 2022.

    First, we’ll likely pass through a major market disruption that will force the dollar significantly higher against other major currencies. When that disruption becomes acute and the strong dollar becomes painful for U.S. exports and export-related jobs, the U.S. Treasury will take steps to weaken the dollar.

    Let’s unpack that forecast a bit.

    The world has been in a currency war since 2010. That’s when then-President Obama set out to weaken the dollar in order to provide stimulus to the U.S. economy in the aftermath of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.

    The White House and the Treasury knew a weaker dollar would hurt growth in Europe and Japan, but it didn’t matter. The U.S. is the largest economy in the world. If the U.S. goes into recession, it takes the rest of the world with it.

    The mission of weakening the dollar was critical to avoid another U.S. recession so soon after the 2007 – 2009 recession. Europe would have to suffer so that the U.S. and the world did not suffer more.

    Truce in the Currency Wars

    The policy worked. The U.S. dollar hit an all-time low on the Fed’s broad trade-weighted index in August 2011. Not surprisingly, this coincided with gold hitting a then all-time high. The euro surged, and the U.S. economy got the boost it needed.

    Thereafter, the U.S. passed the canteen to Europe and allowed the dollar to strengthen. The euro sank to $1.05 by October 2016. The U.S. felt that its economy was strong enough to endure a strong dollar even as it allowed the euro to sink in order to give the eurozone economies a boost.

    Since then, the EUR/USD cross-rate has traded in a fairly narrow range. On July 1, 2017, the euro was $1.18, almost exactly where it is today, four years later.

    The point is that currency wars do not involve constant fighting in the form of cross-rate volatility or extreme valuations. There are relatively quiet periods, which can be prolonged.

    Still, as long as the basic conditions that cause currency wars remain (too much debt and not enough growth), there is always the potential for a new eruption of fighting as one economy or another tries to boost growth by cheapening its currency against those of major trading partners.

    I said earlier that the dollar will strengthen in the short run. But if the U.S. will soon weaken the dollar as part of a currency war rescue package, why do I expect a stronger dollar in the short run?

    There are two parts to the answer…

    Recovery?

    The first is that the White House and the U.S. Treasury do not understand just how weak the U.S. economy is at the moment. The 6.5% Q2 GDP number was below expectations, but it was even worse than it appears.

    The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDPNow tracker went from 13% in April to 7.5% in June. The actual number came in at 6.5%. This means growth weakened considerably over the course of the quarter. It also means that if growth was stronger in April and May, and the full quarter was 6.5%, then June must have been well below 6.5%.

    The result is that Q3 is off to a weak start.

    In addition, there were some troubling data in the fine print that comes along with the headline GDP number. Imports were healthy because Americans have been on a buying binge using government handout checks.

    But exports were weak, a reflection that the rest of the world is not doing nearly as well as the U.S. Simply put, foreigners are not buying our goods because they’re in bad shape themselves.

    It Gets Worse

    Most dramatically, personal income fell 30% on an annualized basis. Private income has been flat for eight months going back to October 2020. The forecast is even more dire because one-by-one the government subsidies are running out.

    Expanded unemployment benefits are mostly done. The rent eviction moratorium has been extended for 90 days even though it’s been found unconstitutional. But its days are numbered.

    Meanwhile, the Payroll Protection Plan loans are over. No additional checks are going to be mass-mailed.

    With government handouts mostly over, private income stagnant, and exports falling, it’s not clear what will drive GDP growth at all in the second half of 2021.

    Joe Biden and Janet Yellen will get the message about the weak economy by November of this year, when the third-quarter GDP and several more months of inflation and employment data make it clear.

    By then, it will be too late to stop the economic slide. The 2022 midterm elections will be less than a year away. The White House will panic and turn to the Treasury for measures to weaken the U.S. dollar.

    That explains why the dollar will get weaker going into 2022. But what explains a stronger dollar in the meantime?

    A Global Liquidity Crisis Is Underway

    The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is now underway. Crises of this type do not emerge overnight. They often take a year or more to grow behind the curtain before both markets and the general public are fully aware of the gravity of the situation.

    Here are some of the specific warning signs of global financial distress:

    • The Chinese central bank has recently lowered the reserve ratio requirement that commercial banks must hold against loans. This points to economic weakness in China and liquidity problems in the banks.

    • Foreign governments are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities. This does not signal an aversion to the dollar. It signals that foreign banking systems are desperate to obtain dollars and will sell Treasuries to get them.

    • Certain segments of the Eurodollar futures curve are slightly inverted in a condition called backwardation. This indicates banks and large institutions expect lower rates in the future (a sign of recession) and higher rates in the near term (a sign of financial distress).

    • Yields-to-maturity on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes have been dropping steeply since last March. This is indicative of a global flight to quality (the fear trade) and expectations of disinflation and slower growth in the future consistent with a possible recession.

    It’s impossible to predict exactly when a global liquidity crisis will hit the headlines if it even becomes that acute. But these trends have been growing stronger since March, indicating that pressures are building and a crisis may emerge as early as this October.

    What is certain is that if a crisis emerges, the dollar (and gold) will strengthen in response to a global rush to safety.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 18:30

  • "Get Your Sh*t Together" – Angry American Airline Customers Hit With Travel Delays Due To Labor Shortage
    “Get Your Sh*t Together” – Angry American Airline Customers Hit With Travel Delays Due To Labor Shortage

    We’re not entirely sure how many American Airlines, Inc. flight delays or cancellations on Sunday are due to labor shortages, but Twitter has erupted with furious customers across the US who blame entire crews for not showing up and resulting in travel disruptions. 

    From Las Vegas to Miami to Charlotte and many other airports, passengers are fed up with the airline carrier. They’re venting their frustration on Twitter this afternoon. 

    Twitter user Ryan Petrosso spoke of canceled flights at Las Vegas Airport. He shows a video of understaffed representatives. 

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    People are complaining entire airplane crews aren’t showing up as the labor shortage deepens. Many people are stranded at airports and will likely either get hotel vouchers tonight or have to sleep in the airport. 

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    Labor shortages among airlines have been an ongoing travel crisis in the last few weeks. 

    American Airlines, Spirit, and others canceled hundreds of flights in early August due to a lack of crew members. 

    There are over 666 delays and 59 cancelations across the US today. We’re not exactly sure how many of these delays or cancellations are connected with labor shortages. 

    Due to labor shortages across the US, American Airlines’ travel disruptions are completely unacceptable as it is an ongoing issue and doesn’t seem to be waning anytime soon. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 18:07

  • Why Goldman Prefers Ether, JPM Turns Bullish And More: Key Crypto Developments In The Past Week
    Why Goldman Prefers Ether, JPM Turns Bullish And More: Key Crypto Developments In The Past Week

    All those who have followed the writings of JPMorgan’s Nick Panagirtzoglou and Josh Younger, for whom no bitcoin bashing opportunity was too small or too insigificant – a least until last Friday, when Panagirtzoglou finally admitted his bearishness was wrong and that there were “clear signs of rising institutional demand”, sending bitcoin and ether to 3 month highs…

    … may be surprised to learn recently the bank has been quietly distributing a report for its clients looking at all the top crypto developments without a negative bias.

    So for those tired of listening to JPM’s conflicted musing as it tries to create a lower entry point for its prop traders, here is nothing but facts from the Crypto Weekly report at the world’s largest bank:

    • All major cryptocurrencies rose in the week. Notably, the prices of Bitcoin and Ether each rose by about 9% w/w to $44.4K and $3.1K, respectively, with most of the weekly rises occurring during last weekend. In fact, Bitcoin reached as high as $46.7K during the week which is its highest level since mid-May.
    • Cryptocurrency volumes surge w/w. Similar to the price of most cryptocurrencies rising w/w, volumes also increased sharply. The average daily volume (ADV) of Bitcoin and Ether both rose about 30% w/w (and are now up 50% m/m) while the ADV of dogecoin more than tripled from the prior week.
    • Spotlight: Coinbase’s (COIN) 2Q21 Earnings highlighted rising institutional adoption and its growing sophistication, while COIN maintained its growth momentum. Over 9,000 financial institutions are now clients of Coinbase and 10% of the top 100 hedge funds by AUM are now active users of Coinbase’s services.
    • Ethereum’s quarterly trading volume outpaced Bitcoin’s for the first time on Coinbase. The higher Ethereum trading volume is attributed to growth in the DeFi and NFT ecosystems as well as increased demand driven by ETH2 staking.
    • Crypto firm Circle intends to eventually become a “national digital currency bank”. However, the firm behind USDC has not yet filed with a bank regulator.
    • Messi’s contract reportedly includes cryptocurrency fan tokens worth an estimated €25-30mm from his new club PSG.

    Key Takeaways from Coinbase’s 2Q21 Earnings Call

    • Strong pace of user growth. Coinbase’s monthly transacting users (MTU) grew to 8.8mm (+44% from 1Q21) and verified users stood at 68mm (up from 56mm in 1Q21). Institutional customers on the platform rose to 9,000 (up from 8,000 in 1Q21). Ecosystem partners on Coinbase who use its crypto tools and services to engage their own customers rose to 160K (up from 134K in 1Q21).
    • Ethereum trading volume outpaced Bitcoin’s for the first time. Ethereum trading volume amounted 26% of total 2Q21 trading volume, whereas Bitcoin’s trading volume amounted to 24%. The higher Ethereum trading volume is attributed to growth in the DeFi and NFT ecosystems, and increased demand driven by ETH2 staking. Overall, trading volume grew to $462B (up 38% q/q) in 2Q21.
    • Retail users are widening their scope of engagement. Coinbase’s 27% retail MTUs in 2Q21 (i.e. 2.4mm individuals) invested and engaged with at least one other non-investing products (up from 25% of 1Q21 retail customers of 1.5mm individuals). The incremental 0.9mm retail customers are majorly involved in Staking or Earn which allows them to earn rewards or yields on their crypto holdings.
    • Rising institutional adoption as over 9,000 financial institutions are now clients of Coinbase. The company also claimed that 10% of the top 100 hedge funds by assets under management are using Coinbase’s services. It has forged partnerships with Elon Musk, PNC Bank, SpaceX, Tesla, Third Point LLC, and WisdomTree Investments.
    • Institutional clients are demonstrating high sophistication. They are engaging with Coinbase as a single point of contact for trading, custody, lending, yield generation, and data. For institutional investors, liquidity is of paramount importance. Further, Coinbase has been providing global fiat payment networks, allowing institutional customers to reach new currencies and markets, improving their access to global liquidity pools.
    • Coinbase’s infrastructure is also being used by various financial firms to create their own crypto offerings. Traditional banks, asset managers, and fintechs are seeking Coinbase’s custody services.

    There were several notable developments on the regulatory front, where the top event took place on Tuesday, when the US Senate passed the $1T Infrastructure Bill which has provisions for tax reporting requirements for the players in crypto industry. The bill requires crypto ‘brokers’ to report user data including their names & addresses. The bill define ‘broker as anyone ‘responsible for and regularly providing any service effectuating transfers of digital assets on behalf of another person’. This definition of ‘broker’ will include crypto miners and software developers even though many of them do not collect or have access to users’ personal information. The crypto advocates say that this measure could harm crypto innovation happening in US. Treasury has been scrambling to explain to the House that it needs to amend the relevant section.

    India’s Ministry of Corporate Affairs said citing a reply in Parliament by minister Rao Inderjit Singh that as per a recent rule amendment Indian companies will need to disclose their virtual currency transactions. The companies will need to disclose where they have traded or invested in cryptocurrencies, the profit or loss on such transactions, the amount of cryptocurrencies held and any deposit or advance from any person for trading or investing in the cryptocurrencies.

    Finally, over in Japan, Junichi Nakajima, the recently appointed Commissioner of Japan’s Financial Services Agency, said in an interview that he is open-minded about the potential benefits that assets like Bitcoin possess as a quick and cheap way to send cash, however, in Japan, they are mainly being used for speculation and investment He added that they need to consider carefully whether it is necessary to make it easier for the general public to invest in crypto assets. The country’s financial regulator recently set up a study group of outside experts and may put out there regulatory responses to DeFi in the coming months.

    Here is a list of the Key corporate developments in the Week:

    An update on the latest crypto adoption news finds that in addition to AMC accepting bitcoin as payment by year-end, China’s telecom giant Xiaomi unveiled that it is partnering with Utrust to accept payment in various cryptocurrencies in Portugal. Finally, Microstrategy said it would continue buying more bitcoin. As of June-end, the company held 105,195 bitcoin with a book value of $2.1 billion, and while its core non-bitcoin business may be worth around $1 billion (very generously), many are wondering where the additional $4 billion in market value comes from.

    Away from JPMorgan, last week Goldman published its own crypto report authored by chief FX strategist Zach Pandl who reminded clients of Goldman’s view that a “flippening” is coming and that Ethereum – which it dubbed “the Amazon of information” in its initiating coverage report from May – will overtake more than Bitcoin.

    In his note, Pandl writes that like other asset classes, cryptocurrencies show a high degree of co-movement, consistent with a common market “beta”. For example, in data since the end of 2019, the first principal component explains about 80% of the daily variation in prices. However, the market does appear to distinguish between categories as well as specific assets. Based on available benchmark indices, the cryptocurrency market has delivered returns of around 750% since the end of 2019. Returns to individual assets or market segments have often differed from this benchmark return. For example, Goldman notes that Bitcoin has underperformed the broad market, gaining about 500% over this period, while Ethereum has outperformed, appreciating by more than 2,000%.

    Based on the Coin Metrics’ dominant use categories (and applying equal weights to the individual assets within each segment), exchange tokens, currency-like assets, and those used in other applications outperformed over this period, while privacy-focused assets underperformed. Similarly, networks with consensus mechanisms based on Proof-of-Stake (PoS) have outperformed those based on energy-intensive Proof-of-Work (PoW).

    Here Goldman reminds its clients that it recently argued that cryptocurrencies can be considered network technologies, and that valuations should be expected to rise with network growth, at least if driven by non-speculative use cases. Tracking cryptocurrency performance by market segment may also help determine which network features markets are rewarding over time. For example, in the next chart Goldman calculates equally-weighted return series for crypto assets categorized by dominant use, as well as for the market as a whole (using the universe of assets covered by Coin Metrics). The bank then plots the ratio of returns by category to the broad market to measure the degree of outperformance or underperformance by segment.

    As shown in the chart below, there have been a few periods of notable performance divergence by use category over the last year. For example, the remittance index outperformed in November on a surge in the price of XRP and Stellar, DeFi-related assets gained more than the broad market in January and early February, while exchange-related tokens have outperformed more recently.

    While potentially a useful way to categorize the nascent world of crypto assets, Goldman notes that defining market segments in this way has some drawbacks. For example, in some cases the dominant use categories include fairly dissimilar assets, and narrower groupings may therefore be more appropriate for tracking the performance of crypto market segments. Moreover, the features of particular networks may change over time (e.g. Ethereum plans to shift to a PoS consensus mechanism), which may require moving assets between categories.

    And speaking of Goldman’s preference for ethereum, ether traders have been acutely focused on data from the underlying Ethereum blockchain’s recent upgrade, known as the London hard fork – and the potential for the refresh to reduce the cryptocurrency’s supply growth. Under Ethereum Improvement Proposal 1559, a component of the London upgrade that’s usually shorthanded as just EIP 1559, base fees paid to transact on the blockchain get “burned,” meaning they offset some of the 2 ETH created as miner rewards with each data block.

    At publication press time, some 48,600 ETH have been burned in accordance with EIP 1559, according to the website Ultrasound Money. The amount represents more than $156 million, and has reduced the net issuance of new ether by an estimated 35%.

    The big question, as Coindesk notes, is whether institutional investors who are creeping into digital-asset markets might start to see ether as an inflation-resistant asset, similar to the way many bitcoin bulls have cast that cryptocurrency.  As bitcoin has rallied 16% in August, ether has outperformed with a 26% gain. On a year-to-date basis, ether has quadrupled in price while bitcoin is up 58%.

    FundStrat, Tom Lee’s investment-research firm, wrote this week: “We expect fees moving through the platform to increase concurrent with the recent uptick in market activity and consequently should continue to see further disinflationary and perhaps even deflationary effects on Ethereum’s circulating supply, resulting in positive price performance.”

    It’s notable that Mike McGlone, the Bloomberg Intelligence analyst who won praise for his (ultimately) accurate call last year that bitcoin would hit $50,000, raised the possibility in a report this week that ether might eventually challenge the larger cryptocurrency for the top spot in the rankings of digital assets by market capitalization. Crypto insiders often to that imagined change in the leaderboard as the “flippening.”     

    “There appears little can stop the process of ethereum ‘flippening’ to take the top spot by market cap, even it takes years rather than months at current trajectories,” McGlone wrote. “Ethereum appears on an enduring path as the go-to platform for the crypto ecosystem and decentralization of finance akin to Amazon Inc. and e-commerce.”

    Picking up on the increasingly bitter animosity between the BTC and ETH camps, UBS strategist James Malcolm writes that aside from their practical distinctions, there are several unique price characteristics in the two tokens’ price action: namely, BTC displays markedly lower volatility (Figure 5), which may be a product of its relative maturity and more diverse investor base, including ‘value-players’ who accumulate on dips and sell spikes. This has encouraged some to treat it as a funder within the crypto space. But, as the UBS strategist notes, one needs to be careful as its correlations to stocks have risen structurally and tend to surge during bull runs (Figure 8). Ether exhibits even stronger equity and tech correlations at longer-term horizons, which seems intuitive also even though its sensitivity to the dollar, gold, US Treasuries and inflation proxies do not screen as materially different to bitcoin’s.

    Looking ahead, however, Malcolm concludes that “Charles Darwin observed in the Galapagos nearly two centuries ago that successive slight adaptations are key to the survival of any species in the natural world. Yet he noted that evolution is unpredictable because the environment that shapes it also fluctuates. One should likewise eschew foregone conclusions here.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 18:00

  • Escobar: Empire Warns Brazil – It's Our NATO Way Or Huawei
    Escobar: Empire Warns Brazil – It’s Our NATO Way Or Huawei

    Authored by Pepe Escobar and Quantum Bird for The Saker Blog,

    The Empire of Chaos could never be accused of deploying Sun Tzu subtlety. Especially when it comes to dealing with the satrapies.

    In the case of Brazil, former BRICS stalwart reduced to the status of a proto-neo-colony under an aspiring Soprano-style “captain”, the Men Who Run the Show applied standard procedure.

    First they sent the Deep State, as in CIA’s William Burns. Then they sent National Security, as in advisor Jake Sullivan. Both visits delivered the same message: toe the line – or else.

    Nuances do apply. The Deep State wants the current proto-neo-colony status of Brazil unchanged, and hopefully deepened – as it strikes the “B” in BRICS out of deeper cooperation with the Russia-China strategic partnership.

    Sullivan for his part is just a cog in the Dem dementia wheel that previously conspired alongside the NSA to destroy Dilma Rousseff’s presidency, throw Lula in jail and place Bolsonaro in charge.

    Lula is not the Dem’s horse for the 2022 Brazilian presidential election. But despite some woke-ish characters coming out of the closet, there’s no viable third way in the horizon acceptable for the Empire – at least not yet.

    Still, the proverbial “offer you can’t refuse” had to be delivered to the people that matter: the men in uniform. Do what you gotta do, strike a deal with Lula, whatever. In the end, what we say, goes.

    That poisoned carrot

    The cover story for Sullivan’s trip was what amounts for all practical purposes to the Ukrainization of Central America/the Caribbean. Notorious vampire Victoria “F**k the EU” Nuland, number 3 in the State Dept., had already been dispatched to assorted chihuahuas in the region to lay down the law.

    Sullivan followed the script, banging on notorious anti-imperial recalcitrants such as Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua and extolling the platitude du jour: “The need to preserve and protect democracy in the hemisphere.” He met face to face with two of the military brass who are part of the deciding circle, Gen Augusto Heleno, who heads the all-powerful Institutional Security Cabinet, and Defense Minister Braga Netto, both under fire for corruption.

    Unlike Burns, who stuck to “security” CIA interests, stressing that Brazil escaping from the Empire’s sphere of influence simply won’t be tolerated, Sullivan actually offered a carrot: drop Huawei out of the 5G auction later this year, and you may be accepted as a NATO partner.

    This carrot bears similarities with the Empire offering BRICS member India to become a – lesser – member of the Quad, alongside US, Japan and Australia, to “contain” China.

    So it’s always about the imperial sphere of influence: smashing BRICS from the inside, turning members into “partners”.

    NATO’s “partnerships” are euphemisms for “we own you, bitch”. All “partners” have to strictly follow the parameters of the NATO 2030 agenda, which has been designed to promote a planetary Robocop patrolling/containing vast swathes of the Global South.

    Even if Brazil seems to be, in fact, already a lowly NATO “partner”, as its Navy was invited to be part of the recent Sea Breeze exercise in the Black Sea, which was a major pro-Kiev, “containment of Russia” operation, it is not granted the carrot will be taken.

    Indeed, an upgrade would only mean a little extra terminological glamour, as in “major non-NATO ally” or “global partner”.

    The real question is who among the Brazilian men in uniform will approve this lethal blow to sovereignty. Significant dissent does exist. The Brazilian Navy, for example, will be against it – as it would be reduced to the role of patrolling the South Atlantic on behalf of the Empire, and even becoming a hostage were the Empire to turbo-charge the militarization of the South Atlantic.

    If this “partnership” ever happened, the Navy’s concept of the “Blue Amazon” would be buried deep in the ocean. Not to mention that NATO does not even recognize the concept of a South Atlantic. Brazil’s own sphere of influence actually extends from the Andes to the western coast of Africa via the South Atlantic.

    The “price” to be paid to accept such a Mafioso “offer you can’t refuse” is to bluntly antagonize China. Talk about the Brazilian military falling on their own tropical sword.

    Brazil and China commercial affairs are intense – and multifaceted. Since the mid-1990s, the presence of Chinese commercial interests has been significant in the Brazilian economy, ranging from mining companies to huge infrastructure projects such as the bridge over the Baia de Todos os Santos.

    China is also the top buyer of the huge native soy production, which is managed by the quite politically active agrobusiness Brazilian community, which is not going to stay idle while its interests are being eroded.

    Brazil also boasts the largest telecommunication market in Latin America. Rebuilding and updating the Brazilian telephony and internet network, jeopardized by 1990s privatizations and 2000s business mistakes, is an opportunity Huawei simply can’t ignore.

    That also configures a huge win for Brazil, able to profit from some hardware the NSA can’t easily spy on.

    So basically to close the doors to Huawei would push Beijing to fiercely retaliate in myriad ways. The most painful consequence would be the end of Brazilian soy imports; that will drive agrobusiness honchos absolutely nuts, with unforeseen consequences.

    In the end, Sullivan’s “offer you can’t refuse” actually smacks of desperation. As the Empire of Chaos is being slowly but surely expelled from Eurasia by the Russia-China strategic partnership, the imperial ace in the hole amounts to renewing control over the Monroe doctrine satrapies.

    All bets are off on whether the tropical men in uniform really understand the high stakes in play.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 17:30

  • At Least 22 Dead In Lebanon Explosion After Army Confiscates Warehouse Full Of Gasoline
    At Least 22 Dead In Lebanon Explosion After Army Confiscates Warehouse Full Of Gasoline

    At least 22 were killed and 79 injured early Sunday after a fuel tank exploded in Northern Lebanon after the army seized a warehouse holding approximately 60,000 liters (16,850 gallons) of gasoline hidden by black marketeers.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Government forces were in the midst of distributing the gasoline to local residents in Tleil when the explosion took place.

    “There was a rush of people, and arguments between some of them led to gunfire which hit the tank of gasoline and so it exploded,” said one security source, while local Al-Jadeed TV reported via eyewitnesses that the explosion was caused by a person who ignited a lighter.

    Around 200 people were nearby at the time of the explosion, according to Reuters. 

    “We need urgent help to evacuate some of the injured abroad..there are cases (of burns) that are more than the ability of Lebanese hospitals to handle,” Health Minister Hamad Hassan told the outlet.

    Army and security forces were among the casualties, according to sources. 

    “There were hundreds gathered there, right next to the tank, and God only knows what happened to them,” said one man who was taken to Tripoli’s al-Salam hospital after standing in line to get gasoline.

    Red cross teams are canvassing the explosion site for more casualties.

    Angry residents in Akkar gathered at the site and set fire to two dump trucks, according to a Reuters witness.

    Some of the injured were sent to hospitals in nearby Tripoli, while others were sent to Beirut, said Rashid Maqsood, an official with the Islamic Medical Association.

    The majority of the injured are in serious condition, said Dr. Salah Ishaq of al-Salam Hospital. “We can’t accommodate them, we don’t have the capabilities. It’s a very bad situation.”

    With Lebanon deep in economic crisis, hospitals have warned that fuel shortages may force them to shut down in coming days, and have also reported low supplies of medicines and other essentials. -Reuters

    “Some people were burned beyond recognition,” Marwa el-Sheikh told AP while waiting for word about her brother who was being treated for burns, as well as her brother-in-law who is currently missing. “They are the victims of the shortcomings and carelessness of our politicians who led us to this.”

    According to AP, hospitals in Northern Lebanon are asking for blood donations of all types, while Health Minister Hamad Hassan has told hospitals that the government will pay for the treatment of those injured by the explosion.

    Sunday’s explosion was the deadliest since an Aug 4, 2020 explosion in Beirut’s port which killed at least 214 people and wounded thousands.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 17:00

  • Politicians Who Claim To Be Serious About Stopping Covid Better Get Serious About The Border
    Politicians Who Claim To Be Serious About Stopping Covid Better Get Serious About The Border

    Submitted by Mark Glennon for Wirepoints

    “We know exactly how to shut it down. We need to make illegal entry illegal.”

    -Border patrol agent speaking to Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

    If you think it’s exaggeration to call the situation at the Mexican border an invasion, read on. If you think it’s exaggeration to say that it’s a major and growing obstacle to containing COVID, keep going. But if you expect to read something about our political establishment taking it seriously, forget it.

    Napoleon invaded Russia with 685,000 troops. North Korea invaded South Korea with 135,000. The Allies invaded Europe with 2 million to retake it from the Nazis, which is about what they had in France three months after D-Day.

    But this year alone over 2 million illegal entries from Mexico are expected. Even CNN acknowledges that number, but the true number likely will be far, far more. That’s an invasion. It’s not that the entrants are vile in some way comparable to invaders who start wars – everybody, hopefully, feels compassion for them and understands why they come. But, numerically speaking, it’s an invasion.

    What is the impact on efforts to contain COVID? Unquestionably, bigger causes are behind the current surge in COVID, the largest by far being the Delta variant that is far more contagious than the original virus. Nobody is claiming that the border crisis is the primary cause of the current spike.

    But it’s absurd to claim that COVID isn’t another major reason why the border must be enforced. COVID at the border is a growing, important concern.

    A stunning 18 percent of illegal migrants are estimated to be infected. “More than 18 percent of migrant families and 20 percent of unaccompanied minors who recently crossed the U.S. border tested positive for Covid on leaving Border Patrol custody” over a recent, reported NBC, citing a briefing document prepared for President Joe Biden.

    Source: NBC News

    That’s far worse than in the American population where less than one percent are infected at any given time. The 18% for illegal immigrants no doubt stems largely from much lower vaccination rates in the countries from which migrants are coming. Over half of Americans are now fully vaccinated. In Mexico, however, the rate is just 22%, and many immigrants come from countries like Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica and El Salvador where most vaccination rates are far lower

    The Biden Administration is returning to Mexico many of the immigrants it apprehends, supposedly around 170,000 per month. The administration is keeping in place a Trump-era policy of turning some migrants away at the southern border without allowing them to claim asylum due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    But huge numbers of the infected unquestionably are getting through undetected or being let in:

    • Hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, are never apprehended and tested – the “got-aways,” as they are called. Nobody knows for sure how many of those there are, but “Border Patrol agents who do work on the border, according to the Center for Immigration Studies, “swear the got-away percentages are upwards of 90 percent or even more.” CNN said it’s about 1,500 per day, which is over half a million per year. But that was in May and illegal crossings have surged since then. The estimated 2 million illegal entries this year is based only on published number of “encounters” with border agents, now running over 200,000 per month. The press seems obsessed with that measure but it ignores the got-aways.

    • Officials in McAllen, Texas say more than 7,000 out of nearly 88,000 migrants released by border patrol in the city since February had tested positive for COVID-19, a positivity rate of more than 8%, according to CBS. But that rate has been increasing. Last week, 14.8% of migrants released from U.S. custody into the city of McAllen tested positive.

    • U.S Rep. Henry Cuellar, a Texas Democrat, said in a press release that the migrant surge has resulted in the temporary shutdown of Catholic Charities (the primary organization that assists new migrants); nearly 70 border agents testing positive for COVID-19 in the Rio Grande Valley sector; 17 border agents testing positive for COVID-19 in the Laredo sector; and 233 hospital beds occupied in the area.

    A member of President Biden’s COVID-19 health equity task force, a virologist, essentially admitted that releasing immigrants is a key “tool “used to contain COVID. “Probably the most important thing that ICE can consider is release, because even with more efforts toward vaccination, being in a detention setting increases your risk of contracting COVID and it increases your risk of death,” he said.

    Where are illegal immigrants who are allowed to stay sent?

    Good question, but don’t expect anybody to have asked it in Illinois or most other places. We do know that former acting Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection Mark Morgan says the Biden Administration has sent at least 40,000 infected immigrants to various cities in the interior of America. Forty thousand “at least,” he said. “That’s conservative.”

    What’s clear is that Illinois appears to be doing everything it can think of, through legislation and administrative action, to bring illegal immigrants here. We listed its most recent measures here.

    All this happens while Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas repeatedly tells the public that the border is under control, while saying the opposite in private. In a leaked tape of a meeting, he said, “if our borders are the first line of defense, we’re going to lose and this is unsustainable…. We can’t continue like this, our people in the field can’t continue and our system isn’t built for it.”

    Homeland Security’s Secretary Mayorkas

    And he earlier said this: “We’re not saying, ‘Don’t come,’ we are saying ‘don’t come now.’” That was in March. Now they are coming.

    It was in the recent, taped meeting that a border agent said what’s partially quoted above. “For those of us who have been around here long enough…we don’t need to reinvent the wheel,” he told Mayorkas. “We’ve had this happen before. We know exactly how to shut it down. We need to make illegal entry illegal.”

    It’s long past time that the obvious questions be put to Governor JB Pritzker and other public officials who claim to be so dedicated to fighting COVID: Why aren’t you demanding that the border be enforced? Are infected immigrants being sent to Illinois? How many of Illinois’ COVID infections have been in illegal immigrants. Do you even know? Do you care?

    The border must be enforced.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/15/2021 – 16:30

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