Dec 16

Today’s News 16th December 2020

  • A Common-Sense Solution
    A Common-Sense Solution
    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/16/2020 – 00:05

    Authored by Tom Trenchard via AmericanMind.org,

    The real America needs a refounding.

    Human life is never quite as stable as we’d like, but we live in uniquely unsettling times. Some of us are angry. Many of us are worried. All of us are anxious about an uncertain future. In these circumstances, the bombastic, triumphal optimism of the pro-Biden crowd – just take a look at CNN for about 10 seconds and you’ll see what I mean – is obviously the product of deep insecurity. Like a 5’8” teenager driving a souped-up F150, it’s clear that the façade of Biden’s popular mandate to govern is masking a dangerously hollow reality.

    According to a number of recent polls, overwhelming proportions of Trump supporters and large supermajorities of likely Republican voters as a whole believe that Biden’s election victory was illegitimate. Based on the existing popular vote counts, a good estimate would put the number of American voters who think Biden will be an illegitimate president at around 60 million. That’s the approximate population of Italy, France, or the U.K.

    Put this together with the analysis I presented in my “2020 Retrospective” article on the urban/rural divide, and the result is staggering: A population of Americans equal in size to a large European country, occupying a land area about 20 times the size of any of them, currently believes they are facing the prospect of a usurped, illegitimate administration come January 20.

    This stark reality of our political and geographical division sits on top of the similarly stark reality of our intellectual and spiritual division. This might not be a problem for Italy, France, or the U.K.—but it is for us. The United States has never been held together by ancestry, national origin, ethnicity, or race. We have always aspired to be a “melting pot,” a nation whose existential glue is not who you are but what you believe. A common creed, not demographics, has always defined American identity.

    Today, this common creed has vanished. We are two Americas: Biden’s America and Trump’s America. These two Americas have nothing of importance in common with each other, and no common ground to stand on. There is not a single moral or political principle upon which these two Americas agree. Sure, everybody wants “freedom,” “justice,” “equality,” “democracy,” and a host of other glittering ideals. So have most dictators, Communists, and war criminals in modern history. Lenin, Stalin, and Mao gave stirring speeches in favor of all of them. The reality is that in the United States, we have long since ceased to do anything more than pay lip service to a sham facsimile of our old shared ideals.

    What does this mean for us? If we are not held together as a nation by anything except the fact that we live in the same place (and, of course, even this isn’t true of parts of the U.S.), then we are not members of a common political community. Our union is built on what Alexander Hamilton called “accident and force” in the very first Federalist paper. We are subjects, not self-governing citizens.

    What should we do about this? When our forebears faced a similar situation in 1776, they took decisive action. “Give me liberty or give me death,” they said. They adopted a Declaration expressing their common moral and political principles, and they affirmed their right to form a political community that would aspire to live according to those principles. It is high time for an American re-founding; not a “secession” or “separation,” but a “perpetuation” of self-evidently true American political principles embodied in a new political Union. This is what the United American Counties could be.

    The principles of this new Union would be the principles of the Declaration of Independence, along with certain corollaries to these principles that elaborate its true meaning:

    • Limited and local government is the foundation of a genuine republic.

    • The natural right to religious liberty—of both worship and exercise—exists beyond politics, taking precedence over all rights merely positive, civil, or legal.

    • The natural right to life for all human beings at all ages and stages of development is entitled to recognition, respect, and protection.

    • The natural family begun in marriage between one man and one woman is the cornerstone of society.

    • The right to private property is fundamental, and should only be regulated as absolutely necessary to maintain free markets, equal opportunity, and the fair reward of industry and merit.

    • All citizens should be educated to understand the meaning and importance of American political principles, and equipped to become informed, active participants in our local, regional, and national systems of government.

    • Citizenship in the United American Counties is available to all who understand, profess, and commit to uphold the principles in this Declaration, regardless of national origin, racial or ethnic identity, or religious belief.

    The common sense of 1776 dictated the American Revolution. The common sense of 2020 dictates the creation of a new political vehicle for perpetuating the true principles of the Revolution.

    Biden’s Urban America has already seceded from the United States of America that many of us know and love. Trump’s Counties can be a life raft for the American experiment in its most dire hour of need.

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  • NYC Sees 'Astronomical' Rise In UFO Sightings 
    NYC Sees ‘Astronomical’ Rise In UFO Sightings 
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 23:45

    Sightings of Unidentified Flying Objects (UFO) in New York City have increased 31% this year over 2019 – 46, compared with 35. 

    Compared with 2018 figures (of around a dozen), 2020 sightings are astronomically higher, so far jumping by more than 283%, according to NYPost, citing data from the National UFO Reporting Center.

    The borough with the most UFO sightings was Brooklyn this year, coming in at 12. The second was Manhattan with 11, and Queens with 10. Staten Island had eight, and the Bronx saw five.

    NYPost said the most “memorable intergalactic incidents” occurred in the summer months, on Staten Island and in the Bronx.

    The first incident occurred on Jun. 8. A Bronxite said 30 objects “flew in a perfect line, in perfect synchronicity” that “looked like a bunch of moving stars.” 

    The observer claimed: “I don’t drink, or take any drugs whatsoever. I’m not a UFO conspiracy theorist.”

    Then on July 21, a Staten Islander spotted an “oval” craft that “looked and sounded like a helicopter. Then, the mysterious flying machine “sent a surge of heat/radiation through my body!”

    The Islander “honestly thought it was the government putting something into the air with everything going on during these times and I thought I would wake up and find it all over the news or on Instagram.”

    On Sept. 15, a Brooklynite looked “out the bathroom window of his home” and saw “orange/metallic” orbs “standing still over the Canarsie/Jamaica Bay area.”

    They said: “By the time I called my son, they were gone. I could not believe my eyes.”

    Earlier in the year, a Manhattanite reported UFOs swirling around the Statue of Liberty. 

    Even though these were first-hand accounts – there was no physical evidence such as a picture or video to back up their claims, well, as far as we know. 

    Last week, Haim Eshed, former head of Israel’s Defense Ministry’s space directorate, told Israel’s Yediot Aharonot newspaper that aliens exist and have been waiting to show themselves but added they remain secret because “humanity isn’t ready” for the reveal. 

    With the world certainly a strange place in 2020, it was noted earlier this month that “alien monoliths” were appearing in the US and even in Europe. 

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  • Big Brother In Disguise: The Rise Of A New, Technological World Order
    Big Brother In Disguise: The Rise Of A New, Technological World Order
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 23:25

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “You had to live – did live, from habit that became instinct – in the assumption that every sound you made was overheard, and, except in darkness, every movement scrutinized.”

    – George Orwell, 1984

    It had the potential for disaster.

    Early in the morning of Monday, December 15, 2020, Google suffered a major worldwide outage in which all of its internet-connected services crashed, including Nest, Google Calendar, Gmail, Docs, Hangouts, Maps, Meet and YouTube.

    The outage only lasted an hour, but it was a chilling reminder of how reliant the world has become on internet-connected technologies to do everything from unlocking doors and turning up the heat to accessing work files, sending emails and making phone calls.

    A year earlier, a Google outage resulted in Nest users being unable to access their Nest thermostats, Nest smart locks, and Nest cameras. As Fast Company reports, “This essentially meant that because of a cloud storage outage, people were prevented from getting inside their homes, using their AC, and monitoring their babies.”

    Welcome to the Matrix.

    Twenty-some years after the Wachowskis’ iconic film, The Matrix, introduced us to a futuristic world in which humans exist in a computer-simulated non-reality powered by authoritarian machines—a world where the choice between existing in a denial-ridden virtual dream-state or facing up to the harsh, difficult realities of life comes down to a blue pill or a red pill—we stand at the precipice of a technologically-dominated matrix of our own making.

    We are living the prequel to The Matrix with each passing day, falling further under the spell of technologically-driven virtual communities, virtual realities and virtual conveniences managed by artificially intelligent machines that are on a fast track to replacing human beings and eventually dominating every aspect of our lives.

    Science fiction has become fact.

    In The Matrix, computer programmer Thomas Anderson a.k.a. hacker Neo is wakened from a virtual slumber by Morpheus, a freedom fighter seeking to liberate humanity from a lifelong hibernation state imposed by hyper-advanced artificial intelligence machines that rely on humans as an organic power source. With their minds plugged into a perfectly crafted virtual reality, few humans ever realize they are living in an artificial dream world.

    Neo is given a choice: to take the red pill, wake up and join the resistance, or take the blue pill, remain asleep and serve as fodder for the powers-that-be.

    Most people opt for the blue pill.

    In our case, the blue pill—a one-way ticket to a life sentence in an electronic concentration camp—has been honey-coated to hide the bitter aftertaste, sold to us in the name of expediency and delivered by way of blazingly fast Internet, cell phone signals that never drop a call, thermostats that keep us at the perfect temperature without our having to raise a finger, and entertainment that can be simultaneously streamed to our TVs, tablets and cell phones.

    Yet we are not merely in thrall with these technologies that were intended to make our lives easier. We have become enslaved by them.

    Look around you. Everywhere you turn, people are so addicted to their internet-connected screen devices—smart phones, tablets, computers, televisions—that they can go for hours at a time submerged in a virtual world where human interaction is filtered through the medium of technology.

    This is not freedom.

    This is not even progress.

    This is technological tyranny and iron-fisted control delivered by way of the surveillance state, corporate giants such as Google and Facebook, and government spy agencies such as the National Security Agency.

    So consumed are we with availing ourselves of all the latest technologies that we have spared barely a thought for the ramifications of our heedless, headlong stumble towards a world in which our abject reliance on internet-connected gadgets and gizmos is grooming us for a future in which freedom is an illusion.

    Yet it’s not just freedom that hangs in the balance. Humanity itself is on the line.

    If ever Americans find themselves in bondage to technological tyrants, we will have only ourselves to blame for having forged the chains through our own lassitude, laziness and abject reliance on internet-connected gadgets and gizmos that render us wholly irrelevant.

    Indeed, we’re fast approaching Philip K. Dick’s vision of the future as depicted in the film Minority Report. There, police agencies apprehend criminals before they can commit a crime, driverless cars populate the highways, and a person’s biometrics are constantly scanned and used to track their movements, target them for advertising, and keep them under perpetual surveillance.

    Cue the dawning of the Age of the Internet of Things (IoT), in which internet-connected “things” monitor your home, your health and your habits in order to keep your pantry stocked, your utilities regulated and your life under control and relatively worry-free.

    The key word here, however, is control.

    In the not-too-distant future, “just about every device you have — and even products like chairs, that you don’t normally expect to see technology in — will be connected and talking to each other.”

    By the end of 2018, “there were an estimated 22 billion internet of things connected devices in use around the world… Forecasts suggest that by 2030 around 50 billion of these IoT devices will be in use around the world, creating a massive web of interconnected devices spanning everything from smartphones to kitchen appliances.”

    As the technologies powering these devices have become increasingly sophisticated, they have also become increasingly widespread, encompassing everything from toothbrushes and lightbulbs to cars, smart meters and medical equipment.

    It is estimated that 127 new IoT devices are connected to the web every second.

    This “connected” industry has become the next big societal transformation, right up there with the Industrial Revolution, a watershed moment in technology and culture.

    Between driverless cars that completely lacking a steering wheel, accelerator, or brake pedal, and smart pills embedded with computer chips, sensors, cameras and robots, we are poised to outpace the imaginations of science fiction writers such as Philip K. Dick and Isaac Asimov. (By the way, there is no such thing as a driverless car. Someone or something will be driving, but it won’t be you.)

    These Internet-connected techno gadgets include smart light bulbs that discourage burglars by making your house look occupied, smart thermostats that regulate the temperature of your home based on your activities, and smart doorbells that let you see who is at your front door without leaving the comfort of your couch.

    Nest, Google’s suite of smart home products, has been at the forefront of the “connected” industry, with such technologically savvy conveniences as a smart lock that tells your thermostat who is home, what temperatures they like, and when your home is unoccupied; a home phone service system that interacts with your connected devices to “learn when you come and go” and alert you if your kids don’t come home; and a sleep system that will monitor when you fall asleep, when you wake up, and keep the house noises and temperature in a sleep-conducive state.

    The aim of these internet-connected devices, as Nest proclaims, is to make “your house a more thoughtful and conscious home.” For example, your car can signal ahead that you’re on your way home, while Hue lights can flash on and off to get your attention if Nest Protect senses something’s wrong. Your coffeemaker, relying on data from fitness and sleep sensors, will brew a stronger pot of coffee for you if you’ve had a restless night.

    Yet given the speed and trajectory at which these technologies are developing, it won’t be long before these devices are operating entirely independent of their human creators, which poses a whole new set of worries. As technology expert Nicholas Carr notes, “As soon as you allow robots, or software programs, to act freely in the world, they’re going to run up against ethically fraught situations and face hard choices that can’t be resolved through statistical models. That will be true of self-driving cars, self-flying drones, and battlefield robots, just as it’s already true, on a lesser scale, with automated vacuum cleaners and lawnmowers.”

    For instance, just as the robotic vacuum, Roomba, “makes no distinction between a dust bunny and an insect,” weaponized drones—poised to take to the skies en masse this year—will be incapable of distinguishing between a fleeing criminal and someone merely jogging down a street. For that matter, how do you defend yourself against a robotic cop—such as the Atlas android being developed by the Pentagon—that has been programmed to respond to any perceived threat with violence?

    Moreover, it’s not just our homes and personal devices that are being reordered and reimagined in this connected age: it’s our workplaces, our health systems, our government, our bodies and our innermost thoughts that are being plugged into a matrix over which we have no real control.

    Indeed, it is expected that by 2030, we will all experience The Internet of Senses (IoS), enabled by Artificial Intelligence (AI), Virtual Reality (VR), Augmented Reality (AR), 5G, and automation. The Internet of Senses relies on connected technology interacting with our senses of sight, sound, taste, smell, and touch by way of the brain as the user interface. As journalist Susan Fourtane explains:

    Many predict that by 2030, the lines between thinking and doing will blur. Fifty-nine percent of consumers believe that we will be able to see map routes on VR glasses by simply thinking of a destination… By 2030, technology is set to respond to our thoughts, and even share them with others… Using the brain as an interface could mean the end of keyboards, mice, game controllers, and ultimately user interfaces for any digital device. The user needs to only think about the commands, and they will just happen. Smartphones could even function without touch screens.

    In other words, the IoS will rely on technology being able to access and act on your thoughts.

    Fourtane outlines several trends related to the IoS that are expected to become a reality by 2030:

    1: Thoughts become action: using the brain as the interface, for example, users will be able to see map routes on VR glasses by simply thinking of a destination.

    2: Sounds will become an extension of the devised virtual reality: users could mimic anyone’s voice realistically enough to fool even family members.

    3: Real food will become secondary to imagined tastes. A sensory device for your mouth could digitally enhance anything you eat, so that any food can taste like your favorite treat.

    4: Smells will become a projection of this virtual reality so that virtual visits, to forests or the countryside for instance, would include experiencing all the natural smells of those places.

    5: Total touch: Smartphones with screens will convey the shape and texture of the digital icons and buttons they are pressing.

    6: Merged reality: VR game worlds will become indistinguishable from physical reality by 2030.

    Unfortunately, in our race to the future, we have failed to consider what such dependence on technology might mean for our humanity, not to mention our freedoms.

    Ingestible or implantable chips are a good example of how unprepared we are, morally and otherwise, to navigate this uncharted terrain. Hailed as revolutionary for their ability to access, analyze and manipulate your body from the inside, these smart pills can remind you to take your medication, search for cancer, and even send an alert to your doctor warning of an impending heart attack.

    Sure, the technology could save lives, but is that all we need to know?

    Have we done our due diligence in asking all the questions that need to be asked before unleashing such awesome technology on an unsuspecting populace?

    For example, asks Washington Post reporter Ariana Eunjung Cha:

    What kind of warnings should users receive about the risks of implanting chip technology inside a body, for instance? How will patients be assured that the technology won’t be used to compel them to take medications they don’t really want to take? Could law enforcement obtain data that would reveal which individuals abuse drugs or sell them on the black market? Could what started as a voluntary experiment be turned into a compulsory government identification program that could erode civil liberties?

    Let me put it another way.

    If you were shocked by Edward Snowden’s revelations about how NSA agents have used surveillance to spy on Americans’ phone calls, emails and text messages, can you imagine what unscrupulous government agents could do with access to your internet-connected car, home and medications? Imagine what a SWAT team could do with the ability to access, monitor and control your internet-connected home—locking you in, turning off the lights, activating alarms, etc.

    While President Trump signed the Internet of Things Cybersecurity Improvement Act into law on Dec. 4, 2020, in order to establish a baseline for security protection for the billions of IoT devices flooding homes and businesses, the law does little to protect the American people against corporate and governmental surveillance.

    In fact, the public response to concerns about government surveillance has amounted to a collective shrug.

    After all, who cares if the government can track your whereabouts on your GPS-enabled device so long as it helps you find the fastest route from Point A to Point B? Who cares if the NSA is listening in on your phone calls and downloading your emails so long as you can get your phone calls and emails on the go and get lightning fast Internet on the fly? Who cares if the government can monitor your activities in your home by tapping into your internet-connected devices—thermostat, water, lights—so long as you can control those things with the flick of a finger, whether you’re across the house or across the country?

    Control is the key here.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, total control over every aspect of our lives, right down to our inner thoughts, is the objective of any totalitarian regime.

    George Orwell understood this.

    Orwell’s masterpiece, 1984, portrays a global society of total control in which people are not allowed to have thoughts that in any way disagree with the corporate state. There is no personal freedom, and advanced technology has become the driving force behind a surveillance-driven society. Snitches and cameras are everywhere. And people are subject to the Thought Police, who deal with anyone guilty of thought crimes. The government, or “Party,” is headed by Big Brother, who appears on posters everywhere with the words: “Big Brother is watching you.”

    Make no mistake: the Internet of Things and its twin, the Internet of Senses, is just Big Brother in disguise.

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  • Looking To Escape The City? Here are America's Most Affordable Suburbs 
    Looking To Escape The City? Here are America’s Most Affordable Suburbs 
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 23:05

    Living in a metro-area during a virus pandemic, economic collapse, social unrest, and soaring violent crime can be stressful. As a result, hundreds of thousands of city dwellers have packed up their bags and fled to the suburbs over the last nine months.

    A new survey from Realtor.com reveals an increasing number of city dwellers have been searching for suburban homes. 

    “These areas just outside of the urban centers of the largest metros, offer homebuyers more space for the money. Potential buyers who’ve been dreaming of more space for work and play don’t have to look far to save 29% per square foot on average or get 25%-65% more square footage for the same price as a home closer to downtown,” said realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “For a 2,000-square-foot home, this could mean 500-1,300 additional square feet.”

    Realtor.com did all the hard work. They identified the most affordable suburbs located within 25 miles of the nation’s top largest metros:

    1) Sicklerville, N.J.

    Urban Metro: Philadelphia

    Median Listing Price: $282,000

    Savings Per Square Foot: 20% (Suburb: $118 / Urban: $148)

    Median Income: $89,300

    A 30-minute drive southeast of Philadelphia, Sicklerville is a community located within Winslow Township in Camden County, N.J. With a population of 53,099 and 10 constituent neighborhoods, Sicklerville is the 22nd largest community in New Jersey. Sicklerville offers easy access to the outdoors with the New Brooklyn County Park for playing sports and canoeing, and the Winslow Fish and Wildlife Management Area for fishing, hunting and bird watching.

    2) Cedar Hill, Texas

    Urban Metro: Dallas

    Median Listing Price: $352,000

    Savings Per Square Foot: 23% (Suburb: $124 / Urban: $161)

    Median Income: $76,600

    Located within Dallas, Cedar Hill is “the city in a park,” and has become a destination for nature enthusiasts, hikers, cyclists, mountain bikers, boaters, campers and adventure competitors. Cedar Hill offers extensive shopping, and a variety of diverse dining options for its 48,463 residents. On average, there are 229 days of sunshine per year in which to enjoy the Dogwood Canyon Audubon Center or Cedar Hill State Park on Joe Pool Lake. The area boasts a strong school system, including Cedar Hill Collegiate Academy (GreatSchools rating 9/10).

    3) Palos Hills, Ill.

    Urban Metro: Chicago

    Median Listing Price: $379,000

    Savings Per Square Foot: 24% (Suburb: $139 / Urban: $184)

    Median Income: $65,700

    Palos Hills is a southwest suburb of Chicago, offering a dense suburban feel with most of its 17,195 residents owning their homes. An array of restaurants, coffee shops and parks — including Bennett Park, where they offer outdoor movies and fishing — make this town a draw for young professionals and retirees. The area is also home to many young families due to its top-rated school system, which includes Oak Ridge Elementary School (GreatSchools rating 10/10).

    4) Marietta, Ga.

    Urban Metro: Atlanta

    Median Listing Price: $440,000

    Savings Per Square Foot: 21% (Suburb: $143 / Urban: $181)

    Median Income: $96,500

    A 25-minute drive to Atlanta, Marietta is one of Georgia’s most populous cities, with a population of 67,000. The city offers an historic downtown, shops and restaurants, and Glover Park is home to outdoor festivals, concerts, weddings and special events. Marietta Square hosts art strolls, parades and farmers markets. The area boasts a desirable school system which includes Lassiter High School (GreatSchools rating 10/10).

    5) Jersey Village, Texas

    Urban Metro: Houston

    Median Listing Price: $447,000

    Savings Per Square Foot: 36% (Suburb: $126 / Urban: $198)

    Median Income: $85,400

    A suburb of Houston, Jersey Village is located in west-central Harris County, and has a population of 7,620. The area abounds with parks, golf courses, community events, farmers markets and recreational pools. It is also nearby to Traders Village Houston, home of the largest flea market in Texas.

    6) Hanover, Mass.

    Urban Metro: Boston

    Median Listing Price: $670,000

    Savings Per Square Foot: 34% (Suburb: $231 / Urban: $350)

    Median Income: $129,100

    While Hanover is a 30-minute drive to Boston, the town’s 14,000 residents maintain a “country town” atmosphere. Hanover offers shopping malls, parks, trails and sports fields. Ponds, streams and rivers, which join the historic North River as it flows to the Atlantic Ocean, provide both summer and winter recreational opportunities such as fishing and canoeing. Hanover has highly-rated schools, including So Shore Vocational Technical High School (GreatSchools rating 7/10).

    7) Pine Island Ridge-Plantation, Fla.

    Urban Metro: Miami

    Median Listing Price: $679,000

    Savings Per Square Foot: 34% (Suburb: $224 / Urban: $341)

    Median Income: $75,000

    Pine Island Ridge is a 35-minute drive to Miami, and has a population of 5,199, with the average age of a homeowner being 55 years old. Recreational activities on offer include an aquatic center, parks, programs/camps and special events. Also, you can hike beautiful trails and explore tree tops at the Pine Island Ridge Natural Area and the Pine Island Ridge Trail.

    8) Clark, N.J.

    Urban Metro: New York City

    Median Listing Price: $798,000

    Savings Per Square Foot: 34% (Suburb: $242 / Urban: $366)

    Median Income: $111,400

    Clark is a township in southern Union County, N.J., with a population of 15,943. The community honors historic moments with the Dr. William Robinson Plantation Museum and 9/11 Memorial. Clark’s abundance of parks offers recreational activities like fishing, trails and fields for playing sports. Clark has highly-rated schools, including Arthur L Johnson High School (GreatSchools rating 7/10).

    9) Ashton-Sandy Spring, Md.

    Urban Metro: Washington, D.C.

    Median Listing Price: $844,000

    Savings Per Square Foot: 39% (Suburb: $178 / Urban: $294)

    Median Income: $153,300

    Made up of two neighborhoods — Ashton and Sandy Spring — this community is located in Montgomery County, with a population of 5,628. The town is home to the Sandy Spring Museum and Sandy Spring Slave Museum, which both provide social and cultural activities like concerts, workshops and events. The Adventure Park at Sandy Spring offers residents ziplining, rope rigs and wooden bridges to explore.

    10) Fullerton, Calif.

    Urban Metro: Los Angeles

    Median Listing Price: $1,155,000

    Savings Per Square Foot: 27% (Suburb: $418 / Urban: $570)

    Median Income: $109,900

    Located in northern Orange County, Fullerton is a 30-minute drive to Los Angeles and has a population of 139,640. It is home to a vibrant music scene, and has a small but diverse theater community, including The Muckenthaler Cultural Center which houses art galleries and a theater group, and The Fullerton Museum Center has educational programs on offider. Fullerton maintains more than 50 city parks, including Hillcrest Park, Chapman Park and the Orange County Regional parks. The area boasts a desirable school system, which includes Troy High School (GreatSchools rating 10/10).

    As we’ve previously noted, the urban-exodus may last for the “next 18 to 24 months.” 

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  • Israel Floats Possibility Of Deploying Joint Missile Systems To Persian Gulf
    Israel Floats Possibility Of Deploying Joint Missile Systems To Persian Gulf
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 22:45

    Via AlMasdarNews.com,

    On Tuesday, a senior Israeli official expressed his country’s readiness to cooperate in the future in the field of missile defense with Gulf states which lie close to Iran. “Israel could be open to future cooperation on missile defense with Gulf Arab states that share its concerns about Iran, a senior Israeli official said on Tuesday,” Reuters reports.

    Moshe Patil, head of the Israeli Defense Ministry’s Missile Defense Organization, said that the time is not yet ripe to move forward with any of these agreements, and that Washington’s approval will be required as long as the development or financing of Israeli systems is done with American technology.

    In response to a question during a conference call with journalists whether any of the systems might actually be introduced to Israel’s new partners in the Gulf, Patil said positively: “These are things that could happen, perhaps in the future,” according to Reuters.

    “From an engineering point of view, of course there are many advantages, information that can be shared like sensors that can be deployed in both countries because we have the same enemies,” he said.

    This came during a press conference to announce what Patil said is a successful test of a multi-level missile defense system that can hit targets flying at different altitudes such as cruise missiles or ballistic missiles.

    Last September, the UAE and Bahrain signed two agreements to normalize relations with Israel, and weeks later Sudan, and then Morocco, announced the normalization of relations with Israel. All efforts were mediated by the U.S.

    Israel has developed various air defense systems with U.S. assistance in recent years, according to reports that excluded cooperation with the Gulf countries in the field of missile defense.

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  • When "Smart" Homes Turn Stupid: Google Users Literally "Left In The Dark" During Monday Outage
    When “Smart” Homes Turn Stupid: Google Users Literally “Left In The Dark” During Monday Outage
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 22:25

    By now, Monday’s massive Google outage is history for most people. While it was a minor inconvenience for some, with most Google services being down for hours on end, it was a much larger pain in the electronic ass for the tragically hip who have surrendered their “smart” homes to Google.

    In fact, of the services that went down, it was Google Home users who were literally left in the dark during the outage on Monday, RT notes. As a result, “smart home” users were complaining about not being able to perform once-simple tasks at their homes – like turning on the lights. 

    “I’m sitting here in the dark in my toddler’s room because the light is controlled by @Google Drive Home. Rethinking… a lot right now,” one Twitter user tweeted in the midst of the “blackout”. Another user from the U.K. said that connecting his lights to Google Home now “feels like a fatal error.”

    ABC News producer Erwin Renaldi quipped: “Thanks Google, now I can’t turn my bedroom light on.”

    The outage on Monday morning lasted “less than an hour”. But quickly, social media was flooded with Tweets that looked like these:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Recall, back in August, we wrote about why “smart homes” may not be all they’re cracked up to be. We highlighted over the summer that police would routinely request access to people’s “smart speakers” during the course of investigations. 

    Amazon said this summer it had received more than 3,000 requests for smart speaker user data from police earlier this year, according to an article from Wired. Even more stunning, Amazon complied with the police’s requests on more than 2,000 occasions, forking over recordings and data that give law enforcement an ear into someone’s household. 

    This number marked a 72% increase in these types of requests from the same period in 2016 – the first time Amazon disclosed the data. The number of requests are up 24% year over year. 

    Douglas Orr, head of the criminal justice department at the University of North Georgia, told Wired that police look for this smart home data “as routinely as data from smartphones”. Police can continue to collect data if one electronic device (like a phone) leads them to another (like a smart home speaker) simply by amending search warrants, he said. 

    Google’s Nest unit has also seen a similar spike in police demands for data from its smart speakers. The company’s annual transparency report shows consistently rising numbers for police requests for data.

     

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  • Pennsylvania Republicans Ask Supreme Court To Again Review Election Lawsuit
    Pennsylvania Republicans Ask Supreme Court To Again Review Election Lawsuit
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 22:05

    By Janita Kan of The Epoch Times

    A group of Republicans in Pennsylvania on Tuesday has again urged the U.S. Supreme Court to take up their lawsuit that challenges the 2020 election results in the state.

    The nation’s top court had previously rejected the group’s request for immediate injunctive relief to block Pennsylvania from taking further steps to certify the 2020 election results. At the time, the group’s lawyer, Greg Teufel, said the case was not over because his clients were planning to file a formal petition to ask the court to review the lawsuit, which they hadn’t filed the first time.

    An election worker is seen as mail-in ballots are counted in Chester County, Pa., on Nov. 4, 2020

    The lawyer filed a petition for a writ of certiorari on Dec. 11, docketed by the court on Dec. 15, which argues that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court was wrong when it dismissed their case because the justices thought the plaintiffs filed their case with unreasonable delay.

    “This Court should not turn a blind eye to unconstitutional election laws that permit massive vote dilution and have a significant impact on election outcomes, as the Pennsylvania Supreme Court did,” the petition (pdf) states.

    The case at hand—cited as Kelly v. Pennsylvania—argues that Act 77, a law that made voting by mail without an excuse legal in Pennsylvania, was enacted in violation of Pennsylvania’s constitution. The state constitution, the plaintiffs argue, prohibits absentee voting in Pennsylvania except for four limited circumstances.

    The lawsuit alleges that the state law is “another illegal attempt to override the limitations on absentee voting prescribed in the Pennsylvania Constitution, without first following the necessary procedure to amend the constitution to allow for the expansion.”

    The lawsuit was filed by a Republican lawmaker Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.) and several GOP congressional candidates.

    In late November a Pennsylvania commonwealth judge, Patricia McCullough, issued a temporary injunction that would have prevented the state from taking further steps to complete the certification of the presidential race. She argued that “petitioners appear to have established a likelihood to succeed on the merits because petitioners have asserted the Constitution does not provide a mechanism for the legislature to allow for expansion of absentee voting without a constitutional amendment.”

    She also opined that the “petitioners appear to have a viable claim that the mail-in ballot procedures set forth in Act 77 contravene” the plain language of the provision of the Pennsylvania Constitution, which deals with absentee voting.

    However, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that the plaintiffs waited too long before the county of boards of election were required to certify the election results to bring the case, which could “result in the disenfranchisement of millions of Pennsylvania voters” who voted by mail.

    In the petition, the lawyer argued that it was a no-win situation for his clients, who wanted to bring the case against the law.

    “Pennsylvania does not permit electors and candidates to bring substantive constitutional challenges to laws governing the conduct of federal elections. An elector or candidate may not bring a challenge prior to an election for failure to meet standing requirements,” he wrote, referring to the legal right—or standing—to bring the case.

    “To overcome such speculative harm requires waiting until after the election takes place. But now that harm has materialized and is no longer speculative, it is too late,” he added.

    The group has asked the court to declare Act 77 as unconstitutional in order to prevent future harm resulting from the law. It also asks the court to grant injunctive relief to mitigate current harms already caused by the state law.

    They argued that when the Pennsylvania Supreme Court dismissed the case they had “insulated the legislation from any attack” and indirectly “amended” the Pennsylvania Constitution despite not having the authority to do so.

    “Such attempted de facto constitutional amendment is itself unconstitutional,” they argued.

    This case is cited as Kelly v. Pennsylvania (20-810).

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  • Iran Uses Disguised Tanker To Export Venezuelan Oil In 'Gold-For-Food' Barter
    Iran Uses Disguised Tanker To Export Venezuelan Oil In ‘Gold-For-Food’ Barter
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 21:45

    A tanker chartered by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) has been loading Venezuelan crude for export, documents from state-run PDVSA show according to Reuters, providing evidence of the two countries’ latest tactics to expand their trade in defiance of U.S. sanctions. Venezuela and Iran have deepened their cooperation this year as Venezuela has exchanged gold and other commodities for Iranian food, condensate and fuel.

    According to the reports, names of scrapped vessels are being used by several PDVSA customers, including NIOC, to disguise the routes and identities of the tankers they use.  A very large crude carrier (VLCC), identified in PDVSA’s loading documents as the Ndros, arrived at Venezuela’s main oil port of Jose last week to load 1.9 million barrels of heavy Merey 16 crude bound for Asia, the documents showed.

    However, vessel-monitoring service TankerTrackers.com used satellite photos to show the Ndros was scrapped in 2018, confirming reports on international shipping databases. 

    The Ndros scrapped tanker

    Also using satellite imagery and comparing it with photographs, it said the VLCC’s real identity is the Liberia-flagged Calliop. Reuters could not independently verify that as the tanker’s name at the hull had been painted black before its arrival at Jose.

    PDVSA, Venezuela’s oil ministry and NIOC did not respond to requests for comment. The U.S. Treasury Department declined to comment.  Hong Kong-based Ship Management Services Ltd, which bought the Calliop in October, the shipping databases showed, could not be reached for comment.

    A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department said that “reports of any impending deliveries would again illustrate the illegitimate regime in Venezuela has turned to international pariahs like Iran to enable their exploitation of Venezuela’s natural resources.”

    Iran sent a VLCC named the Horse to Venezuela in September. It delivered condensate, a very light form of oil, for PDVSA to blend with its very heavy oil to formulate exportable crude. The tanker returned to Iran in October carrying Venezuelan heavy oil for NIOC, PDVSA’s schedules showed. The tanker was misidentified at PDVSA’s databases as the Master Honey.

    In the run-up to leaving office in January, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has tightened sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.

    A handful of PDVSA’s customers that had been allowed to swap Venezuelan oil for fuel under U.S. sanctions had their authorisations suspended in October. But Washington has not intercepted vessels that contribute to the Iran-Venezuela trade.

    The Iranian tanker ship “Fortune” is seen at El Palito refinery dock in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela May 25, 2020.

    Smaller Iranian tankers have also delivered gasoline to Venezuela, making several voyages between the two countries since May. The U.S. Department of Justice in August seized 1.1 million barrels of Iranian gasoline bound for Venezuela on four privately-owned tankers.

    The cargoes were transferred to two separate tankers that delivered the gasoline to U.S. ports for auction, in what the department said led to the largest seizure of Iranian fuel.

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  • Vaccine Passports And Health Passes: Is Showing Your "Papers" The "New Normal"?
    Vaccine Passports And Health Passes: Is Showing Your “Papers” The “New Normal”?
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 21:25

    Authored by Robert Wheeler via The Organic Prepper blog,

    Life cannot return to normal until there is a vaccine for COVID 19.

    At least, that is what governments, corporations, and their mainstream propaganda media outlets have been incessantly arguing. Interestingly, the development of that vaccine was “warp speed,” allegedly at the behest of the Trump administration.

    “Warp speed” also took place in other countries like the UK, where shots have been administered. This information has caused some to question whether the vaccine was ready long before the announcement was made or, indeed, before the pandemic ever began.

    They tried to warn us about mandated vaccines

    Years ago, “conspiracy theorists” were ridiculed for warning of a system in which vaccines would be required to access normal aspects of life. Today, however, government officials and MSM are now openly discussing the very same system.

    In case you have been living under a rock for the past several weeks, here are several instances where the “public discussion” has centered around the idea of a “vaccine passport” or “immunity passport” or the general blockade and sanctioning of anyone not willing to take the jab.

    Chief Medical Officer of Health for Ontario Dr. David Williams recently stated that individuals who refuse the COVID-19 vaccination might “face some limits.” Some of the “limits” he suggested included not being able to enter a hospital or nursing home without showing proof of having been vaccinated without personal protective equipment.

    Welcome to the new normal: Vaccine Passports and Health Passes

    For the moment, vaccine passports are mainly intended for international travel. However, their use can be extended to many other areas of life. Vaccine passports in the form of free mobile apps in which a traveler (or event goer, employee, or shopper) uploads their COVID-19 test results or vaccination status. 

    There are currently two existing vaccine passports options, one being operational in the United States right now.

    • Common Pass: Created by Commons Project, this health pass has been in international use since October on United and Cathay Pacific flights between New York, London, Singapore, and Hong Kong. Common Pass operates via Apple’s Health app on iOS and CommonHealth for Android. It connects to 230 US health systems. It functions as a scannable QR code and can store a passenger’s test or vaccine data and travel plans. (It is not yet publicly available for download.)

    • IATA Travel Pass: Expected to launch in early 2021, IATA Travel Pass, is currently under development by the International Transport Association. According to the IATA website, the digital pass for travelers is: A global and standardized solution to validate and authenticate all country regulations regarding COVID-19 passenger travel requirements.

    Vaccination tickets: the future of concert and event-goers

    Ticketmaster announced that it is exploring the possibility of requiring proof of vaccination for ticket purchases and entrance to events. An article published on Billboard stated: 

    Ticketmaster has been working on a framework for post-pandemic fan safety that uses smartphones to verify fans’ vaccination status or whether they’ve tested negative for the coronavirus within a 24 to 72-hour window.

    Many details of the plan, still in development, will rely on three separate components: the Ticketmaster digital ticket app, third party health information companies like CLEAR Health Pass or IBM’s Digital Health Pass, and testing and vaccine providers like LabCorp and CVS Minute Clinic.

    If the vaccination tickets are approved, how would it work?

    The Billboard article gives further details about what people will have to do to attend concerts and other events. 

    • After purchasing tickets, concert fans will have to provide proof of COVID-19 vaccination or test negative 24-72 hours before the event

    • Fans must have proof of vaccination or test results delivered to a health pass company, such as CLEAR or IBM

    • Health pass company verifies the attendee’s COVID-19 status to Ticketmaster (Ticketmaster will not be granted access to fan’s medical records)

    • Vaccinated fans or those with negative test results would be issued the credentials needed to access the event by Ticketmaster

    • Fans testing positive or who can not verify their status will not be granted access to any event. 

    Different states will have different requirements

    The primary role of health pass companies will be to collect data from testing and medical providers and deliver status updates to partner companies. This would be done in a secure, encrypted way that complies with the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA).

    For individuals financially privileged enough to afford to buy the ever-more expensive tickets from the Ticketmaster’s monopoly, the world will have taken a giant step forward into the “new normal.”

    Airlines are quickly following suit

    From CNN:  Australia’s national carrier Qantas will require future international travelers to provide proof of vaccination against Covid-19 before flying.

    The airline’s CEO Alan Joyce said in an interview with CNN affiliate Nine News on Monday that the move would be a “necessity” when coronavirus vaccines are readily available.

    Joyce said the airline was looking at changing its terms and conditions to “ask people to have a vaccination before they get on the aircraft.”

    “Whether you need that domestically, we will have to see what happens with Covid-19 in the market. But certainly, for international visitors coming out and people leaving the country, we think that’s a necessity,” the Qantas chief said.

    While Qantas is the first airline to indicate that Covid-19 vaccinations would be a must before travel, others may soon require this as well.

    Whatever the “new normal” is for travel will quickly spill over into everyday life

    Researchers suspect these new “passports” will quickly be extended to employment, education, and even buying food. 

    Judging by the behaviors of those around us, all of those concerns are entirely legitimate. 

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  • US Navy's New Shipbuilding Plan Wants To "Achieve Maritime Supremacy" Amid Rising China 
    US Navy’s New Shipbuilding Plan Wants To “Achieve Maritime Supremacy” Amid Rising China 
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 21:05

    The Trump administration recently announced a new long-term shipbuilding plan that will boost the Navy’s fleet as it confronts a rising China in the South China Sea. 

    According to Bloomberg, citing a senior admin official, the Navy’s shipbuilding budget for fiscal 2022 would increase by 33% to $27 billion over this fiscal year. By 2023, it would increase to $28.5 billion, reaching $38.5 billion in fiscal 2026. 

    The ambitious plan to rebuild the Navy after decades of cuts to shipbuilding comes as the fleet has been stripped down to a size barely larger than it was nearly a century ago. 

    Trump has prioritized expanding the fleet of 275 ships to 355 vessels within a decade. The plan is part of a 30-year shipbuilding program that will expand the fleet to 500 by 2045.

    “Since taking office, President Trump has promised to increase the size of our naval fleet to 355 battleships, re-establish the United States as the global power at sea to continue to secure our country while making it more prosperous,” Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought said in a statement. 

    Vought continued: “Our updated 30-year shipbuilding plan is a credible, affordable road map for achieving maritime supremacy—all while tightening our belts—and sending a strong message to our adversaries like China.”

    The shipbuilding plan also includes a list of 48 vessels set to be decommissioned or placed out of service during the fiscal years 2022 through 2026. 

    Planned retirements include the “first Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, the first two Ohio-class guided-missile submarines, and the first Victorious-class ocean surveillance ship,” said Seapower Magazine, adding that “11 Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruisers and 11 Los Angeles-class attack submarines” will be retired as well. 

    Here’s the full list of retirements between 2022-2026: 

    In 2022: 

    • Six Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruisers will be placed in reserve: San Jacinto (CG 56), Hue City (CG 66), Anzio (CG 68) Vella Gulf (CG 72) and Port Royal (CG 73).  
    • One Whidbey Island-class dock landing ship will be placed in reserve: Whidbey Island (LSD 41). 
    • Two Los Angeles-class attack submarines will be recycled: Providence (SSN 719) and Oklahoma City (SSN 723). 
    • One Powhatan-class fleet ocean tug will be disposed: Apache (T-ATF 172). 

    In 2023:  

    • Two Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruisers will be placed in reserve: Bunker Hill (CG 52) and Mobile Bay (CG 53). 
    • Four Whidbey Island-class dock landing ships will be placed in reserve: Germantown (LSD 42), Gunston Hall (LSD 44), and Ashland (LSD 48). 
    • One Harpers Ferry-class dock landing ship will be placed in reserve: Carter Hall (LSD 50). 
    • Two Henry J. Kaiser-class fleet replenishment oilers will be disposed: John Lenthall (T-AO 189). 
    • One Powhatan-class fleet ocean tug will be disposed: Catawba (T-ATF 168). 
    • One Safeguard-class rescue and salvage ship will be disposed: Grasp (T-ARS 51) 

    In 2024: 

    • Two Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruisers will be placed in reserve: Antietam (CG 54) and Shiloh (CG 67). 
    • One Whidbey Island-class dock landing ship will be placed in reserve: Rushmore (LSD 47). 
    • Two Harpers Ferry-class dock landing ships will be placed in reserve: Harpers Ferry (LSD 49) and Pearl Harbor (LSD 52). 
    • Four Los Angeles-class attack submarines will be recycled: Chicago (SSN 721), Key West (SSN 722) San Juan (SSN 751) and Topeka (SSN 754). 
    • Four Avenger-class mine countermeasures ships will be disposed: Sentry (MCM 3), Devastator (MCM 6), Gladiator (MCM 11) and Dextrous (MCM 13). 
    • One Safeguard-class rescue and salvage ship will be disposed: Salvor (T-ARS 52). 

    In 2025: 

    • One Nimitz-class aircraft carrier will be recycled: Nimitz (CVN 68). 
    • One Harpers Ferry-class dock landing ship will be placed in reserve: Oak Hill (LSD 51). 
    • Two Los Angeles-class attack submarines will be recycled: Helena (SSN 725) and Pasadena (SSN 752).  
    • One Henry J. Kaiser-class fleet replenishment oiler will be disposed: Joshua Humphreys (T-AO 188) 

    In 2026: 

    • One Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser will be placed in reserve: Chancellorsville (CG 62). 
    • One Whidbey Island-class dock landing ship will be placed in reserve: Comstock (LSD 45). 
    • Two Ohio-class guided-missile submarines will be recycled: Ohio (SSGN 726) and Florida (SSGN 728). 
    • Three Los Angeles-class attack submarines will be recycled: Newport News (SSN 750), Scranton (SSN 756) and Alexandria (SSN 757).  
    • One Henry J. Kaiser-class fleet replenishment oiler will be disposed: Pecos (T-AO 197). 
    • One Victorious-class ocean surveillance ship: Victorious (T-AGOS 19). 

    So what is the Navy’s strategy here? Is the US preparing for a naval and air clash with China in the South China Sea, or somewhere in the Pacific? 

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  • White House's McEnany Refuses To Say Whether Trump Accepts Electoral College Vote
    White House’s McEnany Refuses To Say Whether Trump Accepts Electoral College Vote
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 20:45

    Speaking during a press briefing on Tuesday called to celebrate the start of the vaccination rollout, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany slammed the MSM for rebutting Trump’s campaign claims (later vindicated) that a COVID-19 vaccine would be ready within weeks, while also affirming that President Trump still doesn’t accept the results of the election.

    Though SCOTUS declined to hear court challenges to various swing state counts before yesterday’s Electoral College vote, the vote has reportedly – according to the MSM, at least – precluded the possibility of more challenges, although Trump and his team are still pushing ahead with some legal efforts, McEnany said.

    She refused to say whether or not Trump accepts the results, once again withholding an admission of defeat, which the combative White House Press Corp has been eager to hear (and not because it might ‘restore faith in Democracy’).

    “The President is still involved in ongoing litigation related to the election. Yesterday’s vote is one step in the constitutional process,” she added, before referring the reporter to the campaign for more information on that.

    Pressed about this morning’s comments from Mitch McConnell congratulating Biden on the electoral college vote, McEnany said she hadn’t yet touched base with President Trump about that.

    Moving on to the purpose of the briefing, McEnany told a reporter that Trump would be “open” to taking the vaccine (despite having already been infected and claiming to be immune), though she added that several senior officials (whom she didn’t specify) will be taking it publicly to help “instill confidence”.

    Trump will wait for the advice of his medical team since he already has the monoclonal antibodies, McEnany said, added that the president sees “our long-term care facility residents and our front line workers are paramount and important”.

    Meanwhile, Joe Biden tweeted earlier that he had spoken with Mitch McConnell, and that he is looking forward to working with the GOP leader with whom he has a close and cordial friendship.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsWhile MSNBC would have readers believe that the GOP is now abandoning Trump en masse now that Mitt Romney has also congratulated Biden on his victory (for like the 12th time)…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    …the reality is much more complicated, as Sen. Rick Scott just affirmed.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Bottom line: McConnell’s comments don’t matter nearly as much to voters as Trump’s comments do. And Trump has yet to acknowledge the Elecotral College vote or call Biden to concede or invite him to the White House, as is custom during the transfer of power. Some say he is refusing to concede, others that he is refusing to submit. 

    Meanwhile, McConnell is due to speak to reporters in short order as negotiations over spending and COVID-19 relief measures continue.

    Readers can watch the full briefing below:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

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  • Two Americas, One Rigged Game, & Zero Capitalism
    Two Americas, One Rigged Game, & Zero Capitalism
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 20:45

    Authored by Matthew Piepenberg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

    Dying Capitalism & The New Feudalism

    American exceptionalism, as current COVID and capitalism disasters confirm, has morphed into a distortion that resembles more of a comorbidity than a guiding light.

    Despite a prior reputation for leading the world in innovation, problem solving and health care, the U.S. is witnessing record hospitalizations in a nation comprising 5% of the global population yet 25% of its COVID infections.

    Regardless of one’s politics, the COVID crisis is now an open symptom of failure, not exceptionalism.

    The same is true of the current crisis facing American capitalism.

    In its purest form, capitalism is an exceptional system, yet sadly one that is morphing into something that is anything but exceptional.

    A CRITICAL TURNING POINT

    Regardless of legitimately debatable views on how individuals and policy makers (from central bankers to health organizations) have handled the pandemic, we can all agree that COVID represents a turning point.

    The question now is whether it will be a turning point for the worse or the better.

    One way to forecast this direction is by tracking the current health of U.S. capitalism.

    CAPITALISM RE-ASSESSED

    Today, with central banks engaged in open Wall Street socialism wherein artificially repressed rates and unlimited QE have directly benefited the two largest asset classes in America, namely real estate and stocks, we can’t deny the cause-and-effect powers (as well as beneficiaries) of such “accommodation.”

    It’s an objective fact that 80 % of those assets are owned by the top 10%.

    Does that feel like capitalism working at a national level, or something far more targeted and far less “free-market” driven?

    The very concept of central-bank supported (and Congress-lobbied) capitalism is itself an oxymoron, and requires on honest re-assessment (and some hard questions) regarding the true meaning of capitalism.

    Can any system, market or sector, for example, that is directly and exclusively supported by trillions in fiat money creation and decades of artificially repressed (and unnaturally low) interest rates by definition be labeled “free market,” “natural” or even “capitalistic”?

    Be honest.

    And has the $6+ trillion in Fed money creation since 2008 truly “trickled down” to the real economy or has it primarily benefited risk asset markets like stocks on the S&P 500…

    …or real estate owners and commission-based brokers:

    Again: Be honest.

    Whether you be in the top 10% or the bottom 10%, the answer to such primary questions is empirically obvious.

    Such asset price inflation (i.e. bubbles) in everything from tech stocks to beach front real estate is not symbolic of the lauded and natural “Darwinism” of competitive, free-market capitalism.

    Instead, such bubbles for the top 10% and the consequent wealth disparity that followed for the rest of the country are dangerous indicators of a kind of post-modern feudalism wherein a questionable cabal of policy makers subsidizes a distinct minority of beneficiaries and then calls the result “economic stimulus” as the rest of the country gets poorer by the day.

    But again, is that capitalism?

    Capitalism, whether defined by Adam Smith or abused by Gordon Gecko, is a dynamic, full-body contact sport of almost blood-thirsty competition played on a level playing field of new ideas, equal capital costs and individual effort.

    In addition, true capitalism, the kind our fathers knew, was equally designed to create a broad rather than narrow class of winners and prosperity over time.

    Do the above charts suggest a broad class of winners?

    Capitalism, of course, should reward executives. But by how much?

    Since 1978, CEO compensation has grown by 940%, whereas worker compensation for the same period has grown by 12%. In 1965, the average ratio of CEO to median employee salaries was 21:1, today it’s over 320:1.

    For Jeff Bezos at Amazon, the ratio is 1.2 million to 1.

    Is such data a sign of an evolving capitalism or an indicator of something far more disturbing?

    FAIR COMPETITION VS. A RIGGED GAME

    Unfortunately, there are other and increasingly clear signs of rigged policies (from the Fed, Congress, SEC or White House) which have less to do with fair competition and compensation—the keystones of healthy capitalism—and far more do with an extended yet media-ignored paradigm of favoritism—i.e. cheating.

    Today, a kind of pseudo capitalism has emerged which is neither empathetic toward (or beneficial to) its host nation.

    Instead, we have a distorted model of capitalism whose benefits and empathies are uniquely targeted to a singular (parasitic?) group of companies, individuals and markets.

    For every member of Congress, for example, there are at least four financial lobbyists (from banks and big-tech) scurrying to influence (i.e. purchase) favorable policy decisions.

    This suggests healthy capitalism is under the influence of bribery not policy, and backroom deals rather than fair competition.

    Of course, any system that is inherently rigged, like the 1919 World Series, is inherently flawed.

    Capitalism, when rigged, is no less disgraceful.

    We see this rigged game playing out in real time as the weak majority get weaker and the strong minority get stronger in a backdrop that is not a capitalistic “survival of the fittest,” but rather a feudalistic survival of the best-connected.

    Record breaking wealth disparity as well as the open and shameful disconnect between a tanking economy and a rising (Fed-supported) securities market is not an homage to capitalism, but rather open proof of its failure.

    TESLA, APPLE AND AMAZON—THE NEW CAPITALISM?

    Take Tesla. It’s a visionary company, but its stock has been skyrocketing on growth projections and historically low borrowing costs, easily managed by exaggerated share price inflation.

    In March, it was the 4th most valuable auto company in the world, today it is now the most valuable, worth more than Daimler, Toyota and Volkswagen combined.

    Or Apple. It took 12 years to get a $1 trillion market cap, but only 5 months to recently reach $2 trillion.

    Are such growth stories a consequence of fair, legitimate and natural free-market capitalism, or have they enjoyed an unfair advantage from the policy jocks?

    Consider Amazon.

    With online sales skyrocketing as citizens are locked at home, Amazon has hired hundreds of thousands of minimum-wage warehouse workers to keep boxes coming to your doorsteps.

    We can applaud Amazon for its job creation and raising of the minimum wage.

    But let us not forget the larger picture in which AMAZON has gamified municipalities through its absurd HQ2 plan which transfers wealth from city police, fire and school districts to its shareholders.

    Nor should we forget that despite years of a profitless balance sheet and legal tax avoidance, Amazon’s share price bubble has allowed it to literally kill, gut and bury small businesses across the nation.

    At the same time, by owning the rails and engaging in anti-competitive behavior while dumping products and prices due to their access to cheap capital (against which no other companies can compete), Amazon has slaughtered rather than leveled the fair “playing field” upon which true capitalism was designed to be played.

    Instead, names like Amazon, Tesla and Apple have prompted openly pro-capitalist thought leaders like Scott Galloway to question whether the pandemic was created, or at least co-opted, for taking the top 10% into the top 1% while sending the remaining 90% downward.

    TWO AMERICAS, ZERO CAPITALISM

    A recent study by the Robin Hood Foundation, for example, revealed that 32% of the people in New York, the homefield of Wall Street, have been forced to go to a food bank since the onset of the pandemic.

    That’s more people in the Empire State seeking free food than those who possess a college degree.

    Meanwhile, 1/3 of greater America is worried about paying their rent.

    By pure math, we now live in a Dickinsonian backdrop by which it is the “best of times” for a tiny minority (from Face-shot real estate brokers to Facebook tech investors) and the “worst of times” for the broader population.

    Is it truly fair to castigate the real America as “losers” in a so-called Capitalistic competition whose rigged rules and policies ensured who the winners would be before the game could even start?

    The rigged game playing right under our noses in the U.S. is not free market capitalism, just as an S&P sitting atop a big, fat, $7+ trillion Fed air-bag, sure as hell aint a free market.

    Natural price discovery, as all honest Wall Street veterans know, died years ago. Nod to Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen and Powell.

    As a member of the Wall Street elite who benefited from such anti-capitalistic capitalism, I can’t ignore facts to alleviate a fake conscience.

    The simple truth is that current U.S. markets, competition and politics have nothing to do with fair competition and hence nothing to do with capitalism.

    THE NEW FEUDALISM

    As Galloway recently observed, “we are barreling toward a nation where 3 million lords are being served by 350 million serfs,” simply because US policy decided to favor corporations over populations as capitalism “collapses upon itself.”

    Nor can this modern version of so-called capitalism rely on the “better angel” generosities of billionaires like Bezos or Musk to save the system.

    The moral character of overpaid CEO’s will not bring the dying middle class back to its glory days.

    Frankly, it’s up to the citizens themselves to get informed rather than angry.

    Knowledge begets better results than pitch forks.

    America is falling not just because capitalism lost its way or policy-supported CEO’s lack the character and accountabilities of the past.

    It’s because citizens and their lobbied (bribed) leaders—red, blue and purple–have lost their sanity and are screaming at each other rather than opening a single economics, math, ethics, history or anti-trust book.

    Today, the crowd gets its education from tweets and twits, not informed thoughts, sound leadership and patient knowledge or actual book reading.

    BREAD & CIRCUS, FEAR & DIVISION

    This, of course, makes the mal-informed majority (i.e. the bottom 90%) easier to trick and manipulate.

    Decision-makers on top, from ancient Rome to Herr Goebbels, have always understood, and hence exploited, such wide-spread ignorance.

    In short, policy anti-heroes serve a mal-informed population a mixed cocktail of either: 1) bread & circus (from Netflix to celebrity virtue-signaling) or 2) fear (from “social-distancing” to COVID death rates) to keep the crowd ignorant, divided and afraid.

    Today, most U.S. citizens are blind to the rudimentary basics of Fed policy, currency debasement, lobbying tricks, anti-trust principles, or even viral facts.

    Thus, as the middle-class flounders and a new financial feudalism replaces genuine capitalism, the mad crowd has no idea where to place its madness other than at each other in an historically divisive era of identity politics replacing anything resembling informed and unifying politics or policies.

    Meanwhile, Amazon’s stock climbs as true capitalism crawls, and ancient assets like gold rise, as broken currencies like the dollar, fall.

    Such are the symptoms of modern feudalism. Get ready for more.

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  • Goldman Upgrades Exxon To Buy For The First Time In Four Years As Cycle Begins To Turn
    Goldman Upgrades Exxon To Buy For The First Time In Four Years As Cycle Begins To Turn
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 20:28

    Just one day after Wells Fargo issued a rare upgrade on beaten down energy giant Exxon, late on Tuesday Goldman did what it hasn’t done since 2016, and it upgraded Exxon from Neutral to a Buy – just two months after it upgraded the major from a Sell – with a $52 price target given Exxon’s “potential for capital/cost reductions, Guyana and Chemicals upside, improved free cash flow versus history, underweight positioning and our constructive view on crude.”

    As analyst Neil Mehta explains, “we have been skewed more cautious on Exxon for multiple years given a history of weak returns, concerns around capital discipline, room for a clearer decarbonization strategy, a dividend policy that added leverage to the business and lackluster earnings execution.” And while each of these concerns are still an issue that management will need to respond to, the rate of change is moving in the right direction, and with the stock trading at only 10.1x Goldman’s 2022 P/E estimate (versus 10-year history of 15x), the analyst believes “investors are able to acquire the stock at a reasonable valuation level.” Furthermore, with XOM shares down 38% in 2020, the bank now sees “much of these risks as priced into the story and see low hanging fruit to make progress on each of these concerns.”

    Some more details behind the four key points underpinning Goldman’s upgrade.

    First, the company has meaningfully lowered its capital spending outlook from $30-$35 bn to $17-$19 bn in 2021 and $20-$25 bn in 2022-2025.

    Second, while not our base case, we no longer see a potential dividend cut as a negative catalyst given the leverage guard rails the company has put around it. We continue to believe a variable dividend strategy has potential to be well-received by the market.

    Third, we see value in the company’s growth assets including in Guyana and Chemicals.

    Fourth, we see more attractive valuation following underperformance, with XOM now trading at an EV/DACF discount to Buy-rated CVX versus its historical premium.

    Of these, perhaps the most important point is the impact of a potential dividend cut. Here are the details on that:

    We continue to view the merits of a variable dividend strategy positively and believe that XOM could benefit from such a strategy. In our view, a variable dividend strategy could enable the company to reduce the need for increasing debt at the bottom of the cycle and drive outsized capital returns to shareholders in better pricing environments. We also believe it would allow the company to balance cash returns to shareholders with investment in attractive projects that could contribute to long term value and returns generation for he company. We do not currently base case a dividend reduction or implementation of a variable dividend model.

    Goldman’s conclusion:

    We revise our 12-month price target to $52 from $42 in this note. We update our methodology to now include a P/E component to our equal weighted EV/DACF and FCF yield valuation. We apply a 15x P/E multiple (in line with XOM’s 10-year historical average) to normalized EPS (defined as an average of 2021-2025, consistent with the time frame for our normalized FCF yield component). We also update our EV/DACF multiple from 7.5x to 8.0x to be more in line with the multiple we use on CVX and now assume a normalized Brent price of $59/bbl in our valuation (from $55.50 previously). For illustrative purposes, we construct an upside case using the 10-year average multiples of 15x P/E and 9.75x EV/DACF, as well as 15-year average FCF yield of 5%, which drives an incremental $10/share of value or a $62/share implied valuation, all else equal.

    We note that historically Exxon has been one of the poorest earnings executors in the S&P500. However, as we look forward, we actually see potential for consistent upward consensus revisions. Over the past twenty quarters, XOM has only beaten EPS estimates 55% of the time. However, we are well above consensus for 2021, 2022 and 2023 EPS, with our EPS of $2.70/$4.18/$3.82 on average 36% above consensus of $1.57/$3.14/$3.72.

    And the risks:

    Capital spending surprises to the upside as commodity prices recover. We currently forecast XOM headline capital spending at $22 bn on average in 2022-2025, within the company’s guidance range of $20-$25 bn. Our model assumes an average Brent price of $61/bbl over that period, which we recognize is above the current forward curve. To the extent XOM does not remain committed to the lower capital spending outlook as commodity prices recover, we would see higher FCF breakevens, which could impact our positive view on the stock.

    Chemicals business remains weak. We expect the company’s investments in performance products projects in the Chemicals business to drive improved returns in the coming years. We see potential for multiple expansion in chemicals as the macro environment and integrated HDPE margins improve relative to 2019 and early 2020 levels. That said, to the extent the margin environment for chemicals deteriorates or the projects do not realize the returns we underwrite, we would see downside risk to our estimates.

    Production growth metrics surprise to the downside. While some production growth for XOM has likely been pushed out given the near-term capital spending cuts, we still expect investment in the Permian and Guyana to drive production growth going forward. To the extent the company faces execution or other issues that prevent the production growth from materializing, we would see downside risk to our earnings forecasts.

    Commodity prices are weaker than we expect. We have an above consensus view on oil prices going forward, with a $55/$65/$60 per barrel Brent price view in 2021/2022/2023. If oil prices persist at something closer to the forward curve, which is at ~$49/bbl, our earnings and cash flow forecasts would see downside risk.

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  • NYPD To Deploy Robotic Dog To Combat Criminals
    NYPD To Deploy Robotic Dog To Combat Criminals
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 20:25

    According to ABC7 in New York, the New York Police Department (NYPD) is set to receive a new Boston Dynamics robot dog with special features, including an arm to open doors and move objects. 

    “This dog is going to save lives, protect people, and protect officers and that’s our goal,” NYPD Technical Assistance Response Unit Inspector (TARU) Frank Digiacomo told ABC7. 

    Dubbed “Digidog,” the Boston Dynamics robot weighs 70 pounds and is able to move at a maximum 3 mph.

    Digidog’s new tricks are shown in the video below: 

    “This robot is able to use its artificial intelligence to navigate things, very complex environments,” NYPD TARU’s Deepu John said.

    This is the department’s only robot dog, and during the latest testing phase, it has been used a few times in the field. The existence of the robot came to light in late October after it assisted in a suspect’s arrest in Brooklyn.

    This particular robot model, known as Spot, has been put to work in other applications this year, including work on an oil rig, nuclear power plant, car plant, and military base. 

    Digidog is capable of two-way communication and could also be used by NYPD to enforce mask-wearing – this was seen earlier this year in Singapore. 

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  • If Not Now, Then When? One Bank Makes The Case For Fed Easing Tomorrow
    If Not Now, Then When? One Bank Makes The Case For Fed Easing Tomorrow
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 20:05

    With stocks at record highs (prices and valuations), and credit spreads at record tights (despite record leverage), most expect ‘more of the same’ from The Fed’s finally statement and press conference tomorrow in terms of promises to do more but not actually doing it… and applying more verbal pressure for fiscal support (heaven forbid they step in and bail out Washington’s utterly devastating gridlock on the COVID Relief Bill).

    In fact, as WSJ’s Michael Derby reports, some suspect The Fed may even lift rates (just not the way most think).

    Downward pressure in the Federal Reserve’s fed funds rate could drive the Fed to lift its interest on excess reserves rate at the end of its Federal Open Market Committee meeting. For a variety of reasons, financial markets are facing downward pressure on money market rates, and to ensure the fed funds rate trades in the middle of the 0% to 0.25% range, some see the Fed making technical adjustments.

    Scott Skyrm of money market trading firm Curvature Securities says that instead of lifting the IOER rate as it has in the past, the Fed could instead lift the reverse repo rate. As with these sorts of changes that have taken place in the past, such a change would be purely technical and signal no change in monetary policy.

    But, Standard Chartered’s Steve Englander and John Davies believe instead that, for Jay Powell and his merry men (and women), there is too much uncertainty not to act, and they will take an even more dovish stance.

    • We see duration extension as likely: least offensive to hawks and useful with or without fiscal stimulus

    • The case for Fed stimulus is likely to be weaker as time goes on

    • End-2020, early 2021 could be difficult with COVID-19 surging, without fiscal stimulus

    • Increased Fed stimulus could be explicitly limited in duration or conditional on economic targets

    Fed easing limited by desire to maintain FOMC consensus

    We expect the FOMC to ease monetary policy on 16 December, most likely by increasing the duration of its Treasury portfolio. It may also increase asset purchases or otherwise signal its willingness to support the economy and asset markets, but these may be explicitly temporary or tied to economic outcomes. FOMC meeting minutes and Fed comments suggest that the FOMC could give some longer-term guidance on what would eventually lead to a slowing or ending of asset purchases.

    Taken together, these steps may be enough to limit the backing up of bond yields on a fiscal deal in Congress and encourage yields lower, faster, absent a deal. Paradoxically, there may be more need for increased asset purchases in the event of a deal, because of the need to demonstrate a soft commitment to capping bond yields. The key question is whether the Fed is concerned simply about a run-up in yields rather than its underlying drivers. Yield spikes in March and June were primarily driven by the real yield component, but the recent steepening bias has been driven by the breakeven, reflecting recovery and reflation optimism (Figure 1).

    A Fed easing move associated with fiscal stimulus would be USD-negative, in our view, with the USD selling both on associated asset market optimism and a Fed move that could put further downward pressure on real rates. Easing in the absence of stimulus probably would not offset USD appreciation on pessimism. We think the USD would appreciate on fiscal stimulus unless the Fed limited bond yield increases. This would raise the risk of a taper tantrum at the long end of the yield curve.

    FOMC faces uncertainty on multiple fronts

    Sometimes the economy is bad, but policy is easy because there are few options other than to ease. Sometimes the economic outlook is more middling, but there are so many dimensions of uncertainty that the policy decision is more difficult.

    The uncertainty on fiscal stimulus is well discussed. As of 14 December, it looks as if some progress towards an agreement is being made, but we have been in this position before. Congress is aware that special unemployment measures for those affected by COVID-19 will expire 26 December, so there could be some significant income stresses among those who have no savings or ability to borrow.

    Policy makers and market participants have become somewhat inured to large spending numbers. If policy makers gave a USD 300 per week supplement for 20mn unemployed for 20 weeks, the cost would be about USD 120bn. An outright grant of USD 600 per person to the 250mn poorest US residents (roughly 75% of the US population, USD 2,400 for a family of four) would cost USD 150bn. These are big income support numbers, but much smaller than the packages under discussion. USD 900bn spent over four months is 14% of GDP over that period (not annualised).

    Personal income has been higher since April than the pre-COVID-19 February high, with transfers more than making up for lost wage and salary income. Without stimulus, personal income would very likely fall below February 2020 levels in January 2021, but possibly in November or December 2020. The 5 November FOMC meeting minutes alluded to strong household savings as a factor that could mitigate the impact of a fiscal impasse. A duration increase or even added QE would do little to maintain aggregate demand if the fiscal talks failed, but could reduce the degree of financial-market tension. This is especially the case because the year-end, the end of exceptional unemployment benefits and the end of Section 13 (3) Fed programmes will essentially coincide. If a fiscal deal is passed, the duration move would limit the backing up of yields.

    If not now, then when?

    The intensification of COVID-19 is likely to last at least through the holiday season; lockdowns are increasing, and initial and continuing unemployment claims are rising. The next two or three months are likely to be the nadir in activity. For the Fed, we see it as pointless to move at the end-January 2021 meeting, because much of the damage will likely have already been done and the beneficial impact of the vaccine would be on the horizon. We earlier made the case that the Fed could move intra-meeting if economic conditions deteriorated (FOMC could move before 16 December), but the deterioration in labour-market conditions has only recently become visible. The logic of ‘if you are going to move, sooner is better than later’ still applies. The FOMC minutes and some recent speakers indicated that an increase in the average duration of the Fed portfolio is more acceptable than an increased pace of buying.

    Does the Fed feel lucky today?

    The Fed might be able to get away with doing nothing and sending the message that it is poised to move quickly if conditions deteriorate.

    The question is whether it wants to take this chance. The Fed could reasonably indicate that it was acting preemptively to prevent bond yields and risk spreads from rising prematurely, and willing to take the risk that the added measures would turn out to be unnecessary in retrospect.

    Compromise with conditional move?

    The FOMC compromise could be to act on the duration and possibly the size of asset purchases, but make the move temporary or set to unwind if economic conditions improved.

    This would give the economy and financial markets the immediate benefit of added liquidity and avoid the question of how aggressively the Fed wants to informally cap rates until it is confident of self-sustaining recovery.

    What message does the FOMC want to send on the balance sheet?

    Investors have been debating and the Fed has been reticent to disclose how the Fed expects to use the balance sheet to hit economic targets. The FOMC minutes and some recent Fed speakers suggested that Fed policy makers were closer to agreement on the role of the balance sheet.

    We and many in the market expect the FOMC to indicate that the balance sheet will stop increasing before policy rates are raised. We doubt that they will provide Taylorrule specificity for the use of asset purchases. Most likely the FOMC will indicate that the beginning of the pullback in the balance sheet will be driven by the judgment that the effective lower bound is no longer a binding restraint, so there is no need to act on the long end because there is no policy option at the short end.

    Fed guidance on how far the balance sheet will shrink will likely be vaguer. The FOMC may indicate that in recovery the balance sheet will be shrunk as much as possible without risking a shortage of reserves or steep backing up of financial conditions.

    UST impact of any duration extension may depend on fiscal progress

    The latest survey evidence shows that the consensus expectation is not for the Fed to extend the duration of its UST purchases at this meeting. Only 23% of those polled in a recent Bloomberg survey expected such a decision. Even fewer expected the Fed to increase the pace of its QE purchases. Hence, if the Fed does take the duration extension option this week, this could be a UST-positive surprise, especially if it also provides reasonably dovish forward guidance around the outlook for its QE programme. Such a decision, in our view, would provide a clear signal that the Fed remains concerned about the risk of sustained curve steepening, near-term at least, given the deteriorating COVID backdrop.

    Since April, we have held the view that the Fed’s UST buying activity in March suggested it was uncomfortable with the 10Y UST yield rising much above 1%. We felt this view was supported by the ultra-dovish language at the 10 June FOMC meeting following the sudden jump in yields at the start of that month. In both March and June, however, the real yield component played a key role in the rise in the nominal 10Y yield, which we argued would have sat very uneasily with the Fed from a theoretical standpoint. More recently, the breakeven component has been the driver of the rise in the nominal yield, reflecting vaccine-based reflation and recovery optimism (Figure 1).

    A decision to extend duration at this point would therefore signal that the Fed remains wary of nominal long-end yields rising too far, too fast. While the immediate response by the UST curve to such a decision should be some modest bull flattening, it is rarely a case of ceteris paribus. The other main source of event risk for the UST market in the very near term is the lingering possibility that Congress will pass a fiscal support package. While any duration extension is supportive of long-end UST demand, a fiscal support package is likely to increase long-end UST supply via primary-market issuance and secondary-market reflation speculators. Hence, the arrival of a fiscal support package shortly after or before the December FOMC meeting would likely limit the scope for bull flattening. So far, speculation on the likelihood of fiscal stimulus has been the biggest driver of bond yields, in our view. To push rates well below current levels, a clear indication may be needed of how far the Fed will tolerate rates backing up, combined with a commitment to act on it.

    A modest duration extension decision this week would probably not offset the impact of a fiscal support deal, especially if there were some conditionality or indication that the move was temporary. If the surprise were bigger and if overall QE were increased, investors could take away a sense of sufficiently significant Fed commitment that the Fed move would emerge as the main yield driver.

    The key upside risk to UST yields this week would therefore be a fiscal support deal in Congress but an on-hold Fed. However, we would still be sceptical that the 10Y UST yield would move sharply above 1% as a result, given COVID-related economic challenges ahead and the possibility that a duration-extension has only been delayed until early next year. The same Bloomberg survey showed 43% of those polled expected such a policy move during Q1.

    Conversely, the downside risk to yields is a duration extension decision but no fiscal package. We believe the curve steepening bias seen over recent months has been driven by a combination of fiscal support hopes and vaccine optimism. We think this explains why the 10Y UST term premium has decoupled from the pull of the expanding global stock of negative-yielding debt (Figure 2).

    If fiscal support hopes were denied, at least for the near term, we would expect a swift pull-back in the term premium to realign more closely with the level of negative-yielding debt.

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  • Mapped: The Risk Of Eviction And Foreclosure In U.S. States
    Mapped: The Risk Of Eviction And Foreclosure In U.S. States
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 19:45

    Alongside potential obstacles such as job loss, financial insecurity, and a subsequent inability to cover many upcoming bills, Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop notes that many Americans are now facing potential home loss as well.

    According to a recent survey by the U.S. Census Bureau, of the estimated 17 million adults who are not current on their rent or mortgage payments, a whopping 33% of them could be facing eviction or foreclosure in the “next two months”.

    Note: While this survey was conducted Nov 11-23, 2020, respondents’ interpretations of “the next two months” ranged between Nov 2020–Jan 2021.

    Millions Facing Home Loss

    Although people across the country face similar risks, Texas stands out with an estimated 718,000 people facing foreclosures or eviction. In fact, more than 7.1 million people in the state may be expecting a loss of employment income in the coming four weeks.

    Other states looking at high percentages of potential home loss include Louisiana, New Mexico, Mississippi, Wyoming, and Missouri.

    To get a closer look, here are the top 10 metro areas with the highest percentages of people who will potentially be facing eviction or foreclosure:

    Home for the Holidays?

    On the other end of the spectrum, there are states that appear to have less need for concern, as the percentage of people likely to experience foreclosure or eviction in these places stands between 15% and 20%. However, this level of relative home security is the case for only Delaware, Vermont, Maryland, and Utah.

    Everyone else is floating in a proverbial gray area, between a majority who may still be in their same home after Christmas, and those who may need to find a new place in the months following the holidays.

    Even in the states with extremely low percentages like Delaware (15%), there are still thousands people who are highly likely to face the possibility of losing their home.

    Going Forward

    It goes without saying that with nearly 17 million Americans behind on mortgage and rent payments, there could be significant consequences down the road.

    In an order issued by the CDC under the Public Health Service Act, it was stated that an eviction moratorium could help with the effectiveness of COVID-19 prevention measures like quarantining, social distancing, and self-isolation. However, while evictions were temporarily halted under this order on September 4th, the extent of this protection runs out on the last day of 2020.

    President-elect Joe Biden expressed his desire for measures such as rent forgiveness back in March 2020, but it remains unclear what actions will be taken under the new administration when inauguration occurs on January 20th, 2021.

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  • The Empire Strikes Back (Against Crypto)
    The Empire Strikes Back (Against Crypto)
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 19:25

    Authored by Omid Malekan,

    Some years ago, when I first began telling people about crypto, a friend pushed back and said that the government would never allow Bitcoin to succeed.

    “Money is power” he said, “and no self-respecting government is going to give that power up.”

    I told him that I agreed, but that Bitcoin was still too small for governments to take seriously. By the time it became big enough to register as a threat, it would be too late.

    Then came the 2017 bubble, and a ten-fold jump in value in a matter of months. But that rally happened too fast for anyone to react, and collapsed just as quickly, alleviating any concern that cryptocurrencies might someday contend for significance in broader society. There was a regulatory crackdown around initial coin offerings, but it had more to do with securities violations than the threat of a new kind of money.

    The current rally feels different. Both blockchain and crypto have had almost three years to prove their utility and seep into the cultural zeitgeist, and digitally native solutions that are not controlled by any corporation or government seem more appealing in a continuously fracturing post-Trump and post-Brexit environment. The pandemic is bound to change everything, so why not money? The current rally is also driven by institutions, so it has staying power. Paul Tudor Jones and MassMutual are more likely to stay with Bitcoin for the long haul than that YouTuber who used to shill XRP.

    The slowly unfolding governmental crackdown on this domain feels different, too. Everything from the actions against Bitmex to the latest French KYC requirements to the rumors about onerous new guidelines coming from the US Treasury smacks of anti-crypto bias. Western governments that supposedly value private innovation and civil liberties are increasingly acting like their Chinese counterparts, inventing crimes out of thin air just to have an excuse to punish someone.

    For example, the same US Justice Department that has always avoided criminal prosecution of Wall Street execs for potential involvement with money laundering actually arrested the chief technology officer of a foreign crypto exchange. More Bitmex executives were criminally prosecuted for what may have happened with crypto than Goldman execs for their proven involvement with 1MDB. The takeaway? Look the other way while minor crypto money laundering takes place and the Feds come knocking. Participate actively in one of the largest theft, bribery and money laundering schemes in history and you get a slap on the wrist.

    To be fair, cryptocurrencies do exist in certain legal gray zones, and some closing of the regulatory gap was always inevitable, and healthy. Regulations can introduce standards and help build trust around a financial system. They also pave the way for institutional adoption. Unlike some of the more radical elements of the crypto community, the money managers and corporations who have the firepower to really drive prices prefer their markets regulated. It also goes without saying that fraud, money laundering and terrorism financing are serious crimes that need to be prosecuted whenever and however they happen.

    But what is most disturbing about the current crackdown are the ways in which it would make the crypto economy even more regulated than traditional financial services. We can attribute some of the more ridiculous proposals to ignorance, but tellingly, whatever regulators and lawmakers don’t understand about this world always leads to more onerous requirements, not less. Put together, the rules coming out of places like the US and Western Europe turn the crypto-economy into a retired Stasi agent’s dream come true, one where every financial transaction is traced and monitored, and every participating is presumed to be doing something nefarious.

    To wit: forcing crypto exchanges to only allow withdrawals to KYC’ed wallets (as some have proposed) is sort of like forcing ATM machines to only allow cash withdrawals after clients disclose how they plan on spending each $20 bill. Regulating stablecoins like securities is akin to forcing consumers to report every debit card swipe to the IRS. If the requirements stated in the pending STABLE ACT were applied to all payment companies, not just blockchain-based ones, then PayPal and Square would be forced to shut down tomorrow. There are many so-called “alternative” assets where tax reporting is left up to the investor, including the ten trillion dollar real-estate market or the multi-trillion dollar private securities market. But the IRS doesn’t ask you to disclose whether you own any of those assets at the top of the form 1040 the way it now does for crypto assets.

    The officials pushing these draconian measures cite the usual concerns about terrorists and drug dealers, but seldom offer credible data. If you didn’t know any better, and only listened to their grandstanding, then you’d assume that ISIS accounts for a substantial portion of Bitcoin mining and El Chapo is a top contributor to the Sushiswap USDT/DAI liquidity pool. So let it be said once and for all that the vast majority of crypto users, well over 99%, are not doing anything illegal. You know this to be true because you know who these people are. They are your friends, schoolmates and family members. They are Naval Ravikant, Ricardo Salinas Pliego and Spencer Dinwidddy.

    Yes, the pseudonymity of crypto makes it somewhat appealing to certain criminals. But no, the underworld is not about to switch to a kind of money where every single transaction is recorded on a public ledger. Yes, Silk Road used Bitcoin, but no, the world’s meth addicts aren’t loading up on Ledger Nanos. I’ll go out on a limb and state that more drug deals get committed using cash in a single week than has ever been committed with crypto (the annual drug trade, measured in dollars, is bigger than the total market cap of all 7000 cryptocoins, combined). Crypto can also help solve crimes, because unlike duffel bags full of $100 bills, coins have a memory.

    Financial fraud is a fact of life, regardless of the money used or payment method in question. There is close to $30b worth of credit card fraud committed every year, and California just paid out $2bn in fraudulent unemployment claims. You know what wouldn’t make sense? Using these stats to argue that most people who use a credit card or apply for government benefits are doing something wrong.

    The spurious “crypto is for criminals’’ narrative predates Bitcoin. It was also used by government authorities to try to prevent public access to strong cryptography in the early days of digital communication. There was even a time when the US government tried to get domestic hardware manufacturers to install a NSA-designed encryption chip with a built-in back door for government snooping. That proposal, which was eventually abandoned, would have done little to stop the real crooks. They would have just adopted stronger encryption. But it would have made all telecommunication less secure and more likely to be compromised by hackers or North Korea. It would have also killed the American tech sector.

    Trying to keep strong security tools out of the hands of the general public because criminals might also use them is like barring homeowners from installing door locks because doing so might make it a little harder for the cops to raid a drug den. The drug dealers would install the locks anyway, while the rest of us would be less safe. Remember the crippling WannaCry ransomware attack that was sensationalized because the hackers asked to be paid in cryptocurrency? It was built using a Windows exploit developed by the NSA. Had the Feds reported the vulnerability to Microsoft as soon as they discovered it then the attack may have never happened. But the government decided that keeping the entire digital domain less secure to preserve their own back door was more important, with predictable results.

    The risk of criminal use is not the primary motivator behind the current crackdown on cryptocurrency. The real reason the Empire is Striking Back is because my friend was right. The most important soft-power on earth is the power to control money, with a close second being control of the banking system. The governmental monopoly on both is now being threatened. Not by a corporation that can be co-opted or by a foreign government that can be coerced, but by an idea.

    An idea that money should be a tool of the people, not a weapon of the state. An idea that saving in the currency of your choice and earning a positive rate of interest is a universal right. An idea that cheap and efficient financial services belong to the poor and unbanked as much as they do the privileged and over-entitled. Bitcoin, DeFi and Dai represent a form of money and an approach to financial services that belongs to the people. That’s why our monetary overlords and the private actors who asymmetrically benefit from their existence are starting to worry.

    If that sounds hyperbolic to you, consider the following: government mandated know-your-client and sanctions requirements, as enforced through the legacy banking system, make it literally illegal for banks to take on hundreds of millions of impoverished or undocumented people as their clients. A disproportionate percentage of those people are minorities. Being locked out of banking forces them to rely on expensive prepaid debit cards or exorbitant remittance services to survive. Stablecoins (such as the proposed Libra/Diem) solve this problem, because anyone with a smartphone can now access digital dollars and transmit them for mere pennies. And yet, no lesser champions of the poor and minorities as congresswomen Rashida Tlaib and Maxine Waters are leading the charge against “dollars on the blockchain.” Their proposed regulations and speeches make it obvious they don’t really understand the technology they want to curtail, but once again, those in power default to doing more, not less. Why? Because they feel threatened.

    The timing of the current crypto rally is rather unfortunate for the powers that be. It would be a lot easier for the Federal Reserve to argue that printing money to directly subsidize Apple’s share buyback program is the best way to help the unemployed, or for the European Central Bank to argue that monetizing the majority of the continent’s debt won’t end badly, or for banking regulators to demand even greater surveillance and control over our financial lives if there wasn’t an alternative. Don’t like what’s happening with the Dollar or the Euro? Prefer a financial system that doesn’t lock out poor people? Think your favorite restaurant deserves more of your money than Visa? Concerned about the financial surveillance state? Tired of being treated like a criminal when you’ve done nothing wrong? Well, now there’s a blockchain for that.

    If the stewards of the old guard had any confidence in their increasingly radical Monterey and banking schemes, they would welcome the competition. Why care about Bitcoin or DeFi if you were certain that negative interest rates — a condition that has never existed in the 10,000 year history of money — can cure a virus. That the Treasury officials and central bakers of the world do care shows that deep down inside, they know they are on thin ice. Even the most obtuse bureaucrat must recognize by now that decades of money madness has failed to produce anything other than wealth inequality and populist uprisings. But they’ve painted themselves in a corner, because thanks to their artificially low interest rates and endless bailouts there is more debt than ever, and the mega-corporations and billionaires who governments care most about can’t withstand any kind of reset. So the money madness must continue, and will soon take on a new form.

    As with digital communication, a technology that cannot be corrupted by those in power will soon be co-opted by them. Enter central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs. The same central bankers who saw nothing interesting about blockchain a few years ago are now looking into using it to digitize their own currencies. They talk a big game about the need to upgrade money, curtail transaction fees or increase financial inclusion, but the real reason institutions like the ECB are on a crash course with digital euros is because of the additional tools CBDCs enable. Economists are already unhappy about the fact that physical money gives ordinary people a way to opt out of insane policies like negative interest rates. CBDCs will eliminate that option, and by virtue of switching society unto digital cash, introduce centralized control levers that would make Stalin’s economic planners drool with envy. No longer will central bankers have to fiddle with interest rates or the bond market to add stimulus or create inflation. The next time there’s a financial crisis, global pandemic or alien invasion (all things economists believe can be fixed with inflation) then the bureaucrats will just program all of our digital tokens to magically grow! Parisians who go to bed with 100 digital euros in their smartphone wallet will wake up to find 102, and Voilà, instant inflation. Baguette prices will rise, the oceans will recede and there will finally be peace for our time.

    CBDCs will enable monetary control to an extent that has never existed before. If inflation proves not to be a cure all, then governments can try even more radical solutions. How about programming money that sits in people’s wallets for too long to shrink? Or paying digital benefits that must be spent within a week before they disappear? (and further programming those benefits to only be spendable at certain businesses, the executives of which just happen to have close ties to those in power). CBDCs will also make life easier for overly-aggressive cops with little respect for your constitutional rights. They’ll no longer have to bother getting a warrant to get past the legal department of your commercial bank. They’ll just call up the tech department of your central bank.

    But as far as stopping the crypto juggernaut is concerned, co-option won’t work either. CBDCs will only increase the appeal of decentralized money, in the same way that the US government’s proposed surveillance chip accelerated the development of better private encryption tools such as PGP, or how Edward Snowden’s revelations of NSA snooping led to end-to-end encryption being deployed by most commercial chat apps. The drive towards central bank digital currencies is extremely bullish for the likes of Bitcoin and Ether. They add credibility to the underlying blockchain infrastructure while exposing the farce that fiat currency has become. They also normalize technical elements like private keys and digital wallets, making the transition from centralized money to the decentralized variety easier than ever.

    Government attempts at restricting this migration will only backfire. Bitcoin is already being upgraded to improve user privacy, and privacy coins like Monero are starting to rally. The more the Emperor tries to stop us from wearing whatever we want, the more obvious it becomes that he’s buck naked.

    None of this inevitable, and governments the world over still have all the power they need to prevent the coming monetary migration. They can always stop the printing presses, stop enslaving our children with record amounts of debt, stop using the commercial banking system as a foreign policy tool and stop excluding tens of millions of poor and underprivileged people from financial services because a few might do something illegal. But then the stock market would fall a little bit, Trump would tweet a lot and “politically independent” Fed officials might be forced to have their first original thought in thirty years.

    In other words, it ain’t gonna happen. The Empire will continue to strike back, with predictable results. Plan accordingly.

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  • Green Spam: Fed Joins Global Group For "Greening" Financial System
    Green Spam: Fed Joins Global Group For “Greening” Financial System
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 19:05

    As if the Fed didn’t have far bigger problems on its plate – like, for example, what it will do when the inflation it has been doing everything in its power to create finally materializes and how it will tighten financial conditions without sparking the biggest tantrum in history and sending risk assets plummeting, on Tuesday morning the following bizarre headline hit terminals around the world:

    • FED FORMALLY JOINS NETWORK FOR GREENING THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM

    Immediately there were questions: does this mean the Fed will literally make it rain dollar bills to “green” the financial system, or is this another pathetic, desperate attempt to deflect attention from the Fed’s catastrophic actions that have pushed the world to the verge of collapse and only purchasing $1.3 trillion in assets every hour is preventing an all out collapse?

    Turns out it was the latter, because it turns out that headlines was refering to a Fed announcement according to which the central bank formally joined the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System, or NGFS as a less idiotically sounding acronym, as a member. Why is the Fed engaging in the disgusting virtue signaling of epic proportions? This is what it said: 

    By bringing together central banks and supervisory authorities from around the world, NGFS supports the exchange of ideas, research, and best practices on the development of environment and climate risk management for the financial sector. The Board began participating in NGFS discussions and activities more than a year ago.

    “As we develop our understanding of how best to assess the impact of climate change on the financial system, we look forward to continuing and deepening our discussions with our NGFS colleagues from around the world,” said Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell.

    Oh, so now the Fed cares about the environment? That’s so touching. But once we pass the virtue signaling stage, maybe Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell can explain why the Fed’s explicitly enabled the emission of billions of CO2 gasses in the atmosphere as a result of its policy of keeping zombie companies – such as uber-polluting shale corporations – alive by depressing yields so low that any junk bond issue by an insolvent shale was snapped up in millisecond by yield starved managers of other people’s money.

    What’s that? The Fed won’t touch that topic and instead it will point all media inquiries to its noble pursuit of “greening the financial system?” Well, that’s a surprise: one almost wonders if the Fed is joining this group, which also includes the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, just so it has a way to deflect questions that touch on the Fed’s true nature of being – along with its Chinese central bank peer – the biggest enabler of massive global pollution.

    And not just the Fed: one wonders if the true motive of all those billionaires who take their private jets to Davos year after year (their gargantuan carbon footprint clearly exempt from the rules they impose upon ordinary peasants) and virtue signal for days on end how the world has to fight global warming (without ever pointing the finger at their biggest sponsor, China), is likewise not quite as pure. But that’s impossible: it would suggest that the world’s “through leaders”, top politicians and top 0.001% richest are… hypocrites!?

    Perish the thought. But before you do, consider that we have officially hit peak stupid, because in a note published by Bank of America last week, the bank’s chief economist actually asked the dumbest question possible: “Can the Fed address climate change?” Here is her answer:

    Well, if the Fed is really committed to “greening”, it can start by hiking rates and making it impossible for shale zombies to keep raising billions in capital year after year, keeping their toxic operations. We won’t be holding our breath.

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  • Federal Taxes Are Sending An S.O.S Signal
    Federal Taxes Are Sending An S.O.S Signal
    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/15/2020 – 18:45

    Submitted by Joseph Carson, former chief economist at Alliance Bernstein

    Data on federal tax receipts paints a grim picture of the state of the US economy. Weak tax receipts are sending a signal of economic distress. Congress needs to act with urgency and pass federal support legislation to help broad parts of the economy.

    Federal withheld income tax receipts represent hard contemporaneous data. Tax receipts are current and complete, unlike other economic data series such as household and payroll employment, which are based on a sampling of a small percentage of the working population and businesses.

    The pandemic hit the economy in March, triggering widespread job loss and partial and full closing of many small businesses. In November, 9 months into the pandemic, federal gross withheld income tax receipts were off 13% from a year ago. That is roughly in line with the average decline of 15% recorded over the 9-month span, March through November.

    Checking the tax data records from the US Treasury the decline in tax receipts over the last 9 months is the largest on record. The only comparable period is the 14% drop in 2009 during the Great Financial Recession.

    But the decline in withheld tax receipts in 2009 was in part driven by the tax cuts passed by Congress. A report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found that the 2009 decline in tax receipts consisted of a sharp drop in household income, especially among the top 1 percent earners, and through a reduction in withholding taxes. Recall in 2009, finance, a sector that employs a lot of the top-wage earners lost a record 300,000 jobs, and those that kept their jobs saw a sharp reduction in pay and bonuses.

    In 2020 Congress did not pass any tax cut, and top-wage earners, especially in finance, have seen increases in jobs and income. So the record decline in federal income tax receipts in 2020 is of a different ilk.

    It’s too early to ascertain the main source of the tax receipt collapse in 2020. But I would be willing to bet that in addition to the income loss associated with job loss in travel, entertainment, and recreation, a big chunk is also due to the income losses incurred by small businesses.

    According to the National Federal of Businesses of Independent Businesses, 75% of small firms operate as “unincorporated pass-through entities. That means the small business owners pay the personal tax rate, which is calculated on the business owners total earnings. So taxes paid by small businesses show up alongside workers taxes in federal withheld income tax receipts. That probably helps explain the gap between the 15% decline in tax receipts over the past 9 months and the 7% decline in employment.

    Congress has been negotiating for several months a second federal stimulus package. But political fighting over the scale and who gets support and who doesn’t has so far stymied a bi-partisan deal. I don’t support big government, but the federal government is supposed to step up during a crisis.

    Taxes are sending an S.O.S signal, saying that significant parts of the economy are experiencing severe distress. Anyone in Congress that is on the fence over whether a second stimulus bill is necessary needs to look no further than the tax data.

    Investors have been patient, banking on Congress to build a bridge of fiscal support until medical science develops a vaccine. Medical science has done its job, but Congress has not. If Congress doesn’t act soon the speculative gains in the equity markets could quickly reverse in scale.

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