Today’s News 16th July 2020

• Global Fertility Decline Will See Population In Over 20 Countries Halved By 2100: Study
  Global Fertility Decline Will See Population In Over 20 Countries Halved By 2100: Study
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 07/16/2020 – 02:45

  A new study from by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, and reported in AFP, finds that the earth is projected to have two billion fewer people by the next century than current United Nations projections forecast for “normal” global development. 

  It forecasts a population peak by the 2060’s at an estimated 9.7 billion people, after which a steep decline will ensue down to 8.8 billion by 2100.

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  Currently, the global fertility rate stands at 2.4, but based on the study’s numbers, it’s expected to be at a “jaw-dropping” 1.7 by end of the century, as one the main authors Professor Christopher Murray described.

  The study found alarmingly that 23 countries are expected to see their total population cut in at least half by the year 2100, among them include Italy, Japan, Poland, Portugal, South Korea, Spain and Thailand.

  “It’s extraordinary, we’ll have to reorganize societies.” https://t.co/pDdi9nTVwu

  — Futurism (@futurism) July 15, 2020

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  Some of the examples listed in the report are as follows:

  Japan: from around 128 million people in 2017 to 60 million in 2100

  Thailand: 71 million to 35 million

  Spain: 46 million to 23 million

  Italy: 61 million to 31 million 

  Portugal: 11 million to 5 million

  South Korea: 53 million to 27 million

  Astoundingly – or perhaps entirely to be expected – mainstream media is hailing it as a “success story” given that it’s not about sperm count, but more and more women simply choosing to not have children. 

  Chart illustrating the dramatic shift over the next hundred years via The Lancet/IHME

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  For example BBC wrote, “It has nothing to do with sperm counts or the usual things that come to mind when discussing fertility. Instead it is being driven by more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children.”

  “In many ways, falling fertility rates are a success story,” BBC concluded, echoing some of the authors of the original study.

  

• Turkish Proxies In Syria Went Out Of Control, Attack Joint Turkish-Russian Patrol
  Turkish Proxies In Syria Went Out Of Control, Attack Joint Turkish-Russian Patrol
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 07/16/2020 – 02:00

  Submitted by SouthFront,

  On July 14th and 15th, Syrian Army artillery units and warplanes of the Russian Aerospace Forces conducted extensive strikes on positions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Turkistan Islamic Party and other radical groups in northern Lattakia and southern Idlib. The main strikes hit fortified positions, weapon depots and gatherings of fighters and equipment near Kbana, Sifouhn, al-Muzarra, Ain al-Aruz, Kansafra, Kafr Uwayd, Mawzrah and Humaymat. According to pro-government sources, over a dozen militants were killed and injured, and 2 weapon depots were destroyed.

  These strikes came in response to a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attack on a joint Turkish-Russian patrol on the M4 highway in southern Idlib on July 14. The explosion hit the patrol near Ariha. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, 3 Russian soldiers and some Turkish troops were injured. The Turkish Defense Ministry added that nobody was killed, but 2 vehicles of the convoy were damaged. A photo of the damaged BTR-82A is also circulating online.

  A previously unknown group, Kataib Hattab ash-Shishani, claimed responsibility for the attack saying that the suicide bomber was one of theirs. Nonetheless, there is no such group active in Idlib. Most likely, this is a fake brand used to draw attention away from the real attackers. The main suspect would be the coalition of al-Qaeda-linked groups Fa Ithbatu, which recently lost a conflict for money and power to its elder brother Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which used to be the official branch of al-Qaeda in Syria. The Fa Ithbatu leadership sees the current ceasefire in Idlib as a threat to its interests because Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is using it to solidify its control over the few Idlib areas where its influence is still limited. The new round of clashes between the Syrian Army and Turkish-led forces in Idlib is the only thing that can help it to keep its independence and its access to resources for a significant period of time.

  The Turkish military reacted to the situation by sending additional troops and equipment, including trucks with concrete blocks, to Idlib city. Instead of fighting terrorists, Ankara seems to be planning to create more fortifications to protect them from a possible offensive by the Syrian Army or its allies.

  Meanwhile, the Syrian Army detained 3 members of the US-backed militant group Maghawir al-Thawra near Palmyra. The militants were tasked with collecting data about Russian, Iranian and Syrian military targets in central Syria. Earlier, Russia warned that the US-led coalition is training groups of militants in al-Tanf  to conduct sabotage operations against civilian and military infrastructure in the government-controlled part of Syria.

  

• "Get Out Now": Pompeo Prepares New Sanctions Over Nearly Complete Russia-Germany NS2 Pipeline
  “Get Out Now”: Pompeo Prepares New Sanctions Over Nearly Complete Russia-Germany NS2 Pipeline
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Thu, 07/16/2020 – 01:00

  While it’s the Trump administration’s new punitive measures targeting China which have been driving headlines, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also signaled new measures related to the controversial Russia-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline. 

  “Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said a sanctions exemption will be removed for a Russian natural-gas pipeline to Germany, paving the way for new penalties to be imposed on the contentious project,” The Wall Street Journal described of his comments.

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  “Mr. Pompeo said Wednesday that the State Department will lift a proviso that spared the pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2, from a 2017 sanctions measure,” the report added.

  Already the major companies laying the massive NS2 pipeline and their executives have been threatened with sanction as of last year, which temporarily halted construction. From there Russia vowed to outfit pipe-laying ships and fill in the gap via its energy giant Gazprom.

  The newly announced measures will allow a wider range of punishment options against companies working on the pipeline as it nears completion, which Washington has long been trying to thwart. 

  “Our expectation is that those who participate in the continued project will be subject to review for potential consequences,” Pompeo announced. 

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  “It’s a clear warning to companies aiding and abetting Russia’s malign-influence projects it will not be tolerated,” Pompeo said.

  “Get out now, or risk the consequences,” he warned.

  Pompeo’s Wednesday statement further targeted a separate Russian natural gas project, specifically through Turkey.

  The statement mentioned Turkstream pipelines as putting companies “at risk” of sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.

  

• The Hague's 2016 Verdict Exposed Communist China's Predatory War On World Order
  The Hague’s 2016 Verdict Exposed Communist China’s Predatory War On World Order
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/15/2020 – 23:50

  Authored by Austin Bay via The Epoch Times,

  Four years ago this week, the Chinese Communist Party declared war on international order in the form of a blunt rejection.

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  On July 12, 2016, The Hague’s international arbitral tribunal, relying on the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea treaty (UNCLOS), issued a ruling supporting the Philippines’ claims that China had violated Filipino territory in the South China Sea by seizing islets and “sea features.” China had also plundered resources in the Philippines’ maritime Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

  Despite having signed the sea treaty (which meant accepting the arbitration process), the Chinese government callously ignored the verdict and disdained the court’s authority.

  UNCLOS codified the geophysical conditions and legal precedents establishing sovereign control of territorial waters and sovereign rights in the EEZ. It is an example of practical, peace-promoting diplomacy.

  China’s blunt rejection of the decision stunned the Filipino government and alerted other nations on the Pacific Rim. The Beijing regime not only broke a major treaty it had ratified but also openly maligned legal procedures created to promote peaceful resolution of international disputes. Beijing’s thuggish rebuke sent the message that Chinese whim backed by China’s enormous military and economic power determined sovereignty in the South China Sea.

  Chinese communist predatory behavior long predates 2016, but in retrospect, Beijing’s appalling reaction to the ruling clearly demonstrated the CCP could not be trusted to abide by even the most meticulously negotiated treaty. The CCP’s June 2020 decision to break the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984 and impose its authoritarian laws on Hong Kong reinforced the ugly lesson that treaties with communist China do not protect smaller nations and territories from Chinese theft and absorption.

  Reneging on treaties, spurning just verdicts and, of course, seizing territory without suffering severe consequences tells China’s leaders that its opponents are weak and lack the will to resist. Undermining, co-opting and ultimately dominating global diplomatic and economic institutions; public and private organizations; and methods of interaction is another CCP goal. Revealing weakness forwards this line of operation.

  For decades, the U.S. Navy has conducted Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS). During a FONOP, a Navy vessel enters contested waters and demonstrates American opposition to maritime territorial claims that intrude on international shipping lanes. In 2015, the U.S. began regular FONOPS specifically challenging China’s spurious claims in the South China Sea.

  In 2016, the U.S. limited its response to China’s rejection of the tribunal ruling. Washington strongly criticized China’s mistreatment of the Philippines, encouraged diplomatic and defense cooperation among southeast Asian nations, and continued the FONOPS, but it avoided a direct, “great power” diplomatic confrontation with Beijing.

  The Hong Kong invasion, China’s cyber hacking, China’s pervasive espionage operations and its duplicity regarding the COVID-19/Wuhan virus pandemic have finally convinced senior American leaders that a CCP-led China only respects power, and only greater power can deter its ambitions.

  On July 13, 2020, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced a “strengthened” U.S. policy in the South China Sea that specifically aligns American policy with the tribunal’s decision. “Beijing’s claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them,” Pompeo said. “(W)e seek to preserve peace and stability, uphold freedom of the seas in a manner consistent with international law, maintain the unimpeded flow of commerce, and oppose any attempt to use coercion or force to settle disputes.”

  Calling CCP-led China an unprecedented threat, he succinctly described Beijing’s theft and extortion racket.

  “Beijing uses intimidation to undermine the sovereign rights of Southeast Asian coastal states in the South China Sea, bully them out of offshore resources, assert unilateral dominion, and replace international law with ‘might makes right.’“

  Pompeo backed his statement with a promise:

  “America stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law.”

  Protection: Since China ignores treaties, protecting means employing American military might.

  *  *  *

  Austin Bay is a colonel (ret.) in the U.S. Army Reserve, author, syndicated columnist, and a teacher in strategy and strategic theory at the University of Texas. His latest book is “Cocktails from Hell: Five Wars Shaping the 21st Century.”

  

• Pornhub Offers Free Advertising For Small Businesses Crushed By Pandemic
  Pornhub Offers Free Advertising For Small Businesses Crushed By Pandemic
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/15/2020 – 23:30

  Pornhub issued a press release on Monday, indicating it will provide free advertising space for small businesses affected by the virus-induced economic crash. 

  The campaign is called “A BIG PACKAGE,” exclusively for small businesses that need “a little stimulation,” said the world’s largest porn site. 

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  No matter where you are, if yours is small and it needs a little stimulation, we’re the experts. That’s why, we’re giving away free ads on pornhub.com to the tune of 1 billion impressions, exclusively to small businesses everywhere. Because what better place to connect with new customers than a website that receives over 120 million happy visitors a day. – the release states

  Pornhub lists only one requirement for small businesses to freely advertise on the site: 

  If you own a company with less than 100 employees, you’re eligible to apply. Complete the form below, and if you’re selected, we’ll create a series of customized ads for your business… inspired by ours. So, instead of tightening your belt in this economy, let us help you loosen it. – the release states

  The campaign is global, from New York City to Tokyo – Pornhub wants small businesses to advertise on its site for free. Here’s a promotional video of “Big Package:” 

  During the pandemic lockdowns, Pornhub offered free premium accounts to anyone in the world, an effort to flatten the virus curve, the company said in March. 

  

• "Probably By Year End" – Alasdair Macleod Warns "The Dollar Is On Its Way To Zero"
  “Probably By Year End” – Alasdair Macleod Warns “The Dollar Is On Its Way To Zero”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/15/2020 – 23:10

  Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

  Finance and economic expert Alasdair Macleod says the gold market is “extremely dangerous as far as the bullion banks, swaps and trading desks” that, at some point soon, are going to have to deliver physical gold they do not have.  

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  Macleod explains,

  “I find it difficult to see how they can close it… The possibility of a default and the possibility of a ‘force majeure’ is increasing all the time in this current situation.  This is a difficult thing to predict, but unless someone can show me there is a way out of this . . . I can’t see how these banks can be rescued.”

  So, the only way the banks can be saved is if they can deliver tons of physical gold they likely don’t have?  Macleod says, “Which they don’t have, not likely have, they don’t have.”

  Macleod thinks failure to deliver gold is coming soon where the contract will be settled in cash and not physical metal.  How many times can the gold market do this?  Macleod says,

  “I think it will be the end of the futures market because nobody would trust it as a means of delivering gold.  I mean it would have demonstrably failed.  So, why would you play with it again?  Of course, the failure of COMEX contracts is a very, very serious issue.”

  What happens to the price of gold?  Macleod says, “The price is already on its way to infinity or, put more accurately, the dollar is on its way to zero…” 

  “The question I think you really want to know the answer to is how long will that take?  In my view, not very long.  Probably by the end of the year because we’ve got another thing happening in the background, and that is we have a banking crisis developing.  This is the natural consequence of the contraction of bank credit.  There is the effect of tariffs on top of that that turn a normal cycle of bank credit contraction into a 1929 to 1932 horror show. . . . If you have a banking collapse, then those assets values will just go down in the pan.  The next thing, of course, bond yields start rising because of the inflationary implications of a financial collapse.  At that stage, government financing becomes impossible because governments are in effect bankrupt.”

  Macleod says stocks, the dollar and bonds all go down together and explains,

  “That is the lesson of history.  Everything just goes away.  If you destroy the currency, you destroy all the financial assets that are priced in it.  That just happens.  It just goes.”

  In closing, Macleod says, “I think the problems with the currency are going to happen by the end of this year…” 

  “I think the problems of the COMEX are going to happen considerably before that.  I think they are going to be tied into a wider banking crisis.  A banking crisis is certain.  I cannot see how it can be avoided. . . . If our end point is the purchasing power of the dollar goes to zero, then you can see $1,800 for the price of gold and $19 for the price of silver is chicken crap compared to where it’s going to go.  So, this is a major, major move that is happening, not because they are buying gold and silver so much, but because people are beginning to realize what is happening to the purchasing power of the dollar, pound, euro and so on and so forth.  That is the thing to keep in mind. . . . I think the dollar will be destroyed by year end, and the price of gold and silver is infinity. . . .  I think the banking crisis could start in a month.  Look what’s happening to their balance sheets. . . . I think the collapse is likely to be so rapid that in the absence of any other information, the best thing to do is to hold on to gold and silver as an insurance policy just in case I am right.”

  Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney.com.

  To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here

  

• Satellite Images Show US Airfield Expansion At Secretive Island Outpost Just Outside Chinese Missile Reach
  Satellite Images Show US Airfield Expansion At Secretive Island Outpost Just Outside Chinese Missile Reach
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/15/2020 – 22:50

  Considered one of the most strategically important unincorporated US island outposts in the world, Wake Island is also among the most restricted territories claimed by the US (also claimed by the Marshall Islands), given it remains a key American military outpost located about halfway between Hawaii and Japan.

  It has historically served as a vital staging ground for US aircraft operating in the Western Pacific and as a remote line of defense, and is more recently witnessing military build-up as part of the US Navy’s “pivot toward the Pacific” — especially given rising US-China tensions and the controversial presence of two US supercarriers in the disputed South China Sea.  

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  Fresh satellite imagery republished by The Drive shows significant expansion to facilities, including to the airfield, which has a nearly 10,000 foot runway. Military publications have previously note that  “Wake is the only 10,000-foot runway for a 4,000-mile stretch of Pacific Ocean.”

  The report details that images “The War Zone obtained from Planet Labs dated June 25th, 2020 shows that substantial improvements to the base have occurred recently. Based on archival satellite imagery, the major expansions to the airfield began early this year and are still underway today.”

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  Advanced American bombers routinely land and operate from Wake Island, supporting operations in the South Pacific. 

  America’s remote outpost deep in the Pacific, situated roughly between Japan and Hawaii, Wake Island serves as a reserve airfield should American airpower have to fallback from the far reaches of Western Pacific during a peer state conflict. pic.twitter.com/XdvGBaQu6s

  — Indo-Pacific News (@IndoPac_Info) July 8, 2020

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  “Beyond its clear logistical utility, acting as a major hub where there isn’t another for thousands of miles, it sits outside the range of China’s and North Korea’s medium-range ballistic missiles, and largely at the end, if not entirely out of range, of their intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs),” a separate report noted. 

  “Guam, which is situated about 1,500 miles further west, is well within the range of these weapons.”

  The new satellite images shows the large eastern apron area’s big expansion, as well as an enlarged secondary apron area on the west end on the runway. The runway itself has been completely rebuilt. pic.twitter.com/7MOT0BBWJ1

  — Indo-Pacific News (@IndoPac_Info) July 8, 2020

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  But Wake Island would be out of reach in any rapid conflict with either China or North Korea, which would target nearer bases up to and including Guam with long-range cruise missiles.

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  Thus Wake Island would be considered a first line fall-back position in any hot war with major US enemies in Asia. Conscious of this, it appears the Pentagon is busy rapidly improving the remote atoll. 

  

• Is Twitter Hiding A Screenshot Of Its Trend And Search Blacklist Tools?
  Is Twitter Hiding A Screenshot Of Its Trend And Search Blacklist Tools?
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/15/2020 – 22:41

  By now, you probably already know about the massive Twitter hack that has taken place this evening where, in summary, the following has taken place:

  • A massive hack which allegedly has originated at a Twitter employee with access to the user management panel was, has affected hundreds of billionaires and politicians, including Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Gates, Kanye West, Elon Musk, Wiz Khalifa, Apple, Uber, Jeff Bezos, Benjamin Netanyahu

  • Tweets urged people to send money to a Bitcoin address; over $113,000 has been sent so far

  • Twitter has investigated and appears to have resolved most of the issue after taking down the offending Tweets and restoring access to the site for those with blue checkmarks, all of whom were previously shut down from the site

  For the full details on the hack, you can read our report on it here. But now, an even more sinister subplot is emerging from the ruins of Twitter’s reputation.

  Sources that are “close to or inside” the underground hacking community have leaked a screenshot of what is allegedly an internal software panel used by Twitter to interact with user accounts, according to a late Wednesday night report from Vice. 

  The tool is said to be used to help change ownership of popular accounts and, in the case of the hack, was said to play a role in usurping the high profile accounts involved. Here is a photo of the panel, with portions redacted by the leaker of the photo to Motherboard. 

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  The interesting thing is that screenshots of the supposed internal software are being aggressively pursued and deleted from Twitter by Twitter itself, with the company claiming that they violate the platform’s rules. In addition to being posted to Motherboard and Twitter, a similar image also appeared on a now deleted Tweet controlled by “Under the Breach”. They have since said their account has been suspended for 12 hours as a result of them posting it.

  Of particular interest are the buttons labeled “SEARCH BLACKLIST” and “TRENDS BLACKLIST”. Could these be tools actively used by Twitter to censor what Tweets and topics appear during searches and on its trends page?

  In other words, could this be the holy grail that all those who have accused Twitter over the years of shadowbanning conservative accounts, have been looking for?

  “As per our rules, we’re taking action on any private, personal information shared in Tweets,” Twitter told Motherboard in response to inquiries about the screenshot, and its deletion or suspension of any account that posted it.

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  While we cannot confirm independently that the screenshot is, in fact, from Twitter’s development/moderator tools, it certainly would open up a whole new can of worms regarding the hack if it turns out to be.

  For example, we recently just wrote about Twitter’s corporate initiative to ditch “offensive” words like “blacklist”. We noted just about 2 weeks ago that Twitter had announced a list of words and phrases that their engineering team will begin using in place of ‘problematic’ language which “does not reflect our values as a company or represent the people we serve.”

  Of course, “blacklist” was on the list of supposedly outgoing terms – but if it’s such a terrible word, why does it appear that Twitter continues to use it internally for the purposes of potentially identifying searches and trends they may not agree with?

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  Another example is from back in 2018, when Jack Dorsey took the Hill in Washington, D.C. to address the notion that Twitter could be disproportionately shadowbanning conservative voices on its site, Dorsey claimed that Twitter “believed strongly in being impartial”, according to Vox:

  Pressed again and again to admit to Twitter showing some type of bias, either systemic or personal, Dorsey consistently demurred. At one point, he sidestepped giving information, when challenged, about whether his own personal political leanings are liberal; at another, he refused to concede that President Trump’s Twitter account might be in violation of Twitter’s general content policies. “We believe strongly in being impartial,” Dorsey said, “and we strive to enforce our rules impartially.”

  He also told Congress that Twitter’s algorithms did not have a liberal bias:

  In response, Dorsey repeatedly explained that the algorithm had no inherent political bias and was simply sorting Twitter content on the basis of numerous behavior signals from the accounts it was reviewing.

  Perhaps the algorithms don’t – but maybe those manually using this alleged interface do?

  Regardless, once people are done asking how this unprecedented hack could have happened in the first place, we wouldn’t be surprised if attention turns to how these moderation tools, if they truly exist, are being implemented.

  

• Back To School? "No Thanks" Say Millions Of Newly Homeschooling Parents
  Back To School? “No Thanks” Say Millions Of Newly Homeschooling Parents
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/15/2020 – 22:30

  Authored by Kerry McDonald via The Foundation for Economic Education,

  With dehumanizing COVID-19 restrictions awaiting students at schools, many parents are opting to keep on homeschooling…

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  Next month marks the beginning of the 2020/2021 academic year in several US states, and pressure is mounting to reopen schools even as the COVID-19 pandemic persists. Florida, for example, is now considered the nation’s No. 1 hot spot for the virus; yet on Monday, the state’s education commissioner issued an executive order mandating that all Florida schools open in August with in-person learning and their full suite of student services.

  Many parents are balking at back-to-school, choosing instead to homeschool their children this fall.

  Gratefully, this virus seems to be sparing most children, and prominent medical organizations such as the American Academy of Pediatrics have urged schools to reopen this fall with in-person learning. For some parents, fear of the virus itself is a primary consideration in delaying a child’s return to school, especially if the child has direct contact with individuals who are most vulnerable to COVID-19’s worst effects.

  But for many parents, it’s not the virus they are avoiding by keeping their children home—it’s the response to the virus.

  In May, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued school reopening guidelines that called for:

  • Strict social distancing tactics

  • All-day mask wearing for most students and teachers

  • Staggered attendance

  • Daily health checks

  • No gym or cafetaria use

  • Restricted playground access and limited toy-sharing, and

  • Tight controls on visitors to school buildings, including parents.

  School districts across the country quickly adopted the CDC’s guidelines, devising their reopening plans accordingly. Once parents got wind of what the upcoming school-year would look like, including the real possibility that at any time schools could be shut down again due to virus spikes, they started exploring other options.

  For Florida mother, Rachael Cohen, these social distancing expectations and pandemic response measures prompted her to commit to homeschooling her three children, ages 13, 8, and 5, this fall.

  “Mandated masks, as well as rigid and arbitrary rules and requirements regarding the use and location of their bodies, will serve to dehumanize, disconnect, and intimidate students,” Cohen told me in a recent interview.

  She is endeavoring to expand schooling alternatives in her area and is currently working to create a self-directed learning community for local homeschoolers that emphasizes nature-based, experiential education. “There is quite a lot of interest,” she says.

  According to a recent USA Today/Ipsos poll, 60 percent of parents surveyed said they will likely choose at-home learning this fall rather than send their children to school even if the schools reopen for in-person learning. Thirty percent of parents surveyed said they were “very likely” to keep their children home.

  While some of these parents may opt for an online version of school-at-home tied to their district, many states are seeing a surge in the number of parents withdrawing their children from school in favor of independent homeschooling. From coast to coast, and everywhere in between, more parents are opting out of conventional schooling this year, citing onerous social distancing requirements as a primary reason.

  Indeed, so many parents submitted notices of intent to homeschool in North Carolina last week that it crashed the state’s nonpublic education website.

  Other parents are choosing to delay their children’s school enrollment, with school districts across the country reporting lower than average kindergarten registration numbers this summer.

  School officials are cracking down in response.

  Concerned about declining enrollments and parents reassuming control over their children’s education, some school districts are reportedly trying to block parents from removing their children from school for homeschooling.

  In England, it’s even worse. Government officials there are so worried about parents refusing to send their children back to school this fall that the education secretary just announced fines for all families who keep their children home in violation of compulsory schooling laws. “We do have to get back into compulsory education and obviously fines sit alongside as part of that,” English secretary Gavin Williamson announced.

  When school officials resort to force in order to ensure compliance, it should prompt parents to look more closely at their child’s overall learning environment. Parents have the utmost interest in ensuring their children’s well-being, both physically and emotionally, and their concerns and choices should be respected and honored.

  After several months of learning at home with their children, parents may not be so willing to comply with district directives and may prefer other, more individualized education options. Pushed into homeschooling this spring by the pandemic, many parents are now going willingly, and eagerly, down this increasingly popular educational path.

  

• China's Economy Returns To Growth In Q2 But Retail Sales Continue To Contract
  China’s Economy Returns To Growth In Q2 But Retail Sales Continue To Contract
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/15/2020 – 22:08

  Judging by the Chinese stock market, Chinese credit impulse data, and Chinese PMIs, tonight’s GDP data should be a big winning rebound proving the communist nation has overcome the viral enemy and is back on its path to global economic domination.

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  Source: Bloomberg

  The “v-shaped” recovery in all the PMIs is rather impressively well managed…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  And Total Social Financing is soaring at a record pace…

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  Source: Bloomberg

  And while trade data rebounded surprisingly in June (as it stepped up efforts to meet the terms of the U.S. trade deal), it remains well down from 2019 in the first six months of 2020, but rebounds are expected to continue to accelerate in all the other macro data released tonight, though most are still expected to be notably lower YoY.

  Going into the data, the upturn in industrial production is the clearest sign that the Chinese economy expanded in 2Q after cratering in 1Q due to the COVID-19 impact, said Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu.

  “Even so, weakness in private and external demand means the pace of growth is likely to be well below historical levels.”

  “Even so, the revival in consumption probably remains a long way off, given changes in behavior to the detriment of contact-intensive services, as well as stress in the labor market and dented incomes.”

  So here’s the data:

  • Q2 China GDP YoY BEAT +3.2% vs +2.4% exp and -6.8% in Q1

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  A much stronger than expected rebound (up a record 11.5% QoQ)…

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  • June China Industrial Production YTD YoY BEAT -1.3% vs -1.5% exp and -2.8% in May

  • June China Retail Sales YTD YoY MISS -11.4% vs -11.2% exp and -13.5% in May

  • June China Fixed Asset Investment YTD YoY BEAT -3.1% vs -3.3% exp and -6.3% in May

  • June China Property Investment YTD YoY BEAT +1.9% vs +1.0% exp and -0.3% in May

  • June China Surveyed Jobless Rate BEAT 5.7% vs 5.9% exp and 5.9% in May

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  So, the good news is that GDP rebounded faster than expected, but the bad news is retail sales continued to contract YoY(-1.8% in June against expectations of a 0.5% expansion)…

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  The biggest disappointment was a contraction in large enterprise retail sales (-0.4% YoY in June vs +1.3% YoY in May) as the rebound stalls.

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  As Bloomberg’s Jeff Black points out, that tells us the recovery is still industry-led, and consumer confidence is still very fragile. That means China’s recovery will be harder to sustain if the world increasingly goes back into lockdown.

  Offshore Yuan is back at 4-month highs…

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  Bloomberg’s Enda Curran notes that one big question remains, is it a rebound or a recovery.

  Sceptics will argue that China’s GDP number will overstate the recovery while others say it reflects the rebound seen in underlying indicators on manufacturing, investment and consumption. But all sides will agree that even if GDP turned positive last quarter, it’s still a long way from a full recovery. We know China’s jobs market is under pressure and we know that the rest of the world remains in a funk. Both of which are clear brakes on China getting back to where it was before the crisis.

  And for those who see tonight’s data and brush it off as implying the next stimulus move is imminent by Chinese officials, Shang-Jin Wei, a China expert at Columbia Business School in New York and formerly chief economist of the Asian Development Bank, warns:

  “Prevention of a return or the ‘second wave’ of the virus outbreak is more important than getting a high growth rate for the remainder of the year.”

  Additionally, with virus second-wave fears and the Trump administration back in sanction mode and seemingly less inclined to support Phase 1 of the trade deal, let alone Phase 2, perhaps the biggest “V” is now behind China; and none of the China growth is helped by an increasing number of runs of China’s banks.

  China’s bank runs have begun. At precisely the time when Chinese banks need any and all cash flow to pay for severe loan losses, the State Council demands 1.5 trillion rmb (75% of 2019 profits!) from banks to “help the economy”.

  — 🇺🇸Kyle Bass🇺🇸 (@Jkylebass) July 15, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And as Bloomberg’s David Ingles notes succinctly, most of the things you’ve seen in the news and will continue to see in the decades to come can be traced back to this one, single chart…

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  This won’t end well.

  

• The COVID-19 Panic Shows Us Why Science Needs Skeptics
  The COVID-19 Panic Shows Us Why Science Needs Skeptics
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/15/2020 – 21:50

  Authored by Peter St.Onge via The Mises Institute,

  The dumpster fire of COVID predictions has shown exactly why it’s important to sustain and nurture skeptics, lest we blunder into scientific monoculture and groupthink. And yet the explosion of “cancel culture” intolerance of any opinion that doesn’t fit a shrinking “3 x 5 card” of right-think risks destroying the very tolerance and science that sustains our civilization.

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  Since World War II, America has suffered two respiratory pandemics comparable to COVID-19: the 1958 “Asian flu,” then the 1969 “Hong Kong flu.” In neither case did we shut down the economy—people were simply more careful. Not all that careful, of course—Jimi Hendrix was playing at Woodstock in the middle of the 1969 pandemic, and social distancing wasn’t really a thing in the “Summer of Love.”

  And yet COVID-19 was very different thanks to a single “buggy mess” of a computer prediction from one Neil Ferguson, a British epidemiologist given to hysterical overestimates of deaths, from mad cow to bird flu to H1N1.

  For COVID-19, Ferguson predicted 3 million deaths in America unless we basically shut down the economy. Panicked policymakers took his prediction as gospel, dressed as it was in the cloak of science.

  Now, long after governments plunged half the world into a Great Depression, those panicked revisions are being quietly revised down by an order of magnitude, now suggesting a final tally comparable to 1958 and 1969.

  COVID-19 would have been a deadly pandemic with or without Ferguson’s fantasies, but had we known the true scale and parameters of the threat we might have chosen better tailored means to both safeguard the elderly and at-risk, while sustaining the wider economy. After all, economists have long known that mass unemployment and widespread bankruptcies carry enormous health consequences that are very real to the victims suffering drained life savings, ruined businesses, broken families, widespread mental and physical health deterioration, even suicide. Decisions involve tradeoffs.

  COVID-19 has illustrated the importance of free and robust inquiry. After all, panicked politicians facing media accusations of “killing grandma” aren’t in a very good position to evaluate these tradeoffs, and they need intellectual ammunition. Not only to show them which path is best, but to bolster them when a left-wing media establishment attacks.

  Moreover, voters need this ammunition so they can actually tell the politicians what to do. This means two things: debate that is transparent, and debate that is tolerant of skeptics.

  Transparency means data and computer code open to public scrutiny as the minimum requirement for any study that is used to justify policy, from lockdowns to carbon taxes to whatever comes next. These studies must be based on verifiable facts, code that does what it says it does, and the ensuing decision-making process must be transparent and open to the public.

  One former Indian bureaucrat put it well:

  “Emergency situations like this pandemic should require a far higher—and not lower—level of scrutiny,” since policy choices have such tremendous impact.

  “This suggests a need for democracies to strengthen their critical thinking capacity by creating an independent ‘Black Hat’ institution whose purpose would be to question any technical foundations of government decisions.”

  Even more important than transparency, debate must be tolerant of alternative opinions. This means ideas that are wrong, offensive, even dangerous, have to be tolerated, even celebrated. By all means, refute them—most alternative hypotheses are completely wrong, so it shouldn’t be hard to simply refute them without censorship. This, after all, is the essence of science—to generate hypotheses testable by anybody, not just licensed “experts.”

  Whether we are faced with a new crisis, a new policy innovation, or simply designing a better mousetrap, groupthink and censorship are recipes for disaster and stagnation, while transparency and tolerance of new ideas are the very essence of progress. Indeed, it is largely this scientific tolerance that allowed us to rise up from the long, brutal darkness of poverty.

  As Francis Bacon observed three hundred years ago, innovation and new knowledge do not come from prestigious “learned” insiders, rather progress comes from the questioner, the tinkerer, the skeptic.

  The industry of artificers maketh some small improvement of things invented; and chance sometimes in experimenting maketh us to stumble upon somewhat which is new; but all the disputation of the learned never brought to light one effect of nature before unknown. (In Praise of Knowledge, vol. 1, [1740] 1850)

  Indeed, every major scientific advance challenged the “settled science” of its day, and was often denounced as pernicious and false, even dangerous. The modern blood transfusion, for example, was developed in the late 1600s, then banned for nearly a century by a hostile medical establishment, “canceling” tens of millions of lives at the altar of groupthink and hostility to skeptics.

  It’s comforting to know that our problems are old ones, and also encouraging that our solution is both time-tested and simple: transparency and tolerance. After all, the very reason our culture elevates science is because it is built on a millennia-long evolutionary “battle of ideas” in which theories are constantly tested and retested in a delightfully endless search for ever better understanding.

  This implies there is no such thing as “settled science”—the phrase itself is contrary to the scientific method. In reality, science is not some billion-dollar gleaming palace in Bethesda, rather it’s a gnarled mutant sewer rat that takes all comers because it’s been burned, cut, run over, crushed, run through the wood chipper, and survived. That ugly beast is our salvation, not the gleaming palace where we bow down to whichever random guy has the biggest degree in the room.

  Only with free inquiry for the most unpopular, offensive, dangerous, and, yes, wrong ideas imaginable does that power sustain. And if we break that, we can expect a series of rapid catastrophes that, like failed golden ages of the past, return us to the nasty, brutish, and very short lives that have been humanity’s norm.

  Whether pandemic, climate change, “institutional racism,” or whatever new crisis they conjure next, we have a fundamental right to tenaciously defend the transparency and tolerance that constitutes science itself so that it remains among humanity’s crowning achievements, and so that we preserve this golden age that would astound our ancestors.

  

• 33-Year-Old Tech CEO's Decapitated, Dismembered Remains Found In NYC Apartment Near Electric Saw
  33-Year-Old Tech CEO’s Decapitated, Dismembered Remains Found In NYC Apartment Near Electric Saw
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/15/2020 – 21:30

  The decapitated and dismembered remains of 33-year-old tech CEO Fahim Saleh were found in his Manhattan apartment on Tuesday, according to ABC News (via MSN).

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  Saleh, co-founder of Bangladeshi ride-share app Pathao – and until this week CEO of Nigerian motorcycle ride-sharing company Gokada – was last seen entering his apartment elevator around 1:40 p.m. followed by a man wearing a suit, gloves, hat and mask, who was carrying a briefcase.

  The elevator can be seen arriving on the 7th floor, after which Saleh’s body can be seen falling onto the floor – apparently after being attacked.

  Saleh’s body was found Tuesday afternoon by his sister who was concerned after she had not heard from him for a day. She can be seen in surveillance footage entering the building, but the suspected killer is not seen leaving, leading law enforcement to believe she may have interrupted the act of dismembering, police sources said. There is a second way out of the apartment, through a service entrance, according to the sources. -ABC News

  Saleh’s head and limbs were detached from his torso and found in several large bags nearby, while investigators also recovered an electric saw which was still plugged into an electrical outlet according to law enforcement sources.

  The hitman did not kill Saleh’s dog.

  “Fahim is more than what you are reading. He is so much more. His brilliant and innovative mind took everyone who was a part of his world on a journey and he made sure never to leave anyone behind. Fahim found success at an early age and built on it year after year, while remaining grounded and committed to helping others,” wrote Saleh’s family in a statement. “No matter what he did, he did it while thinking of the greater good and his family.”

  “His parents and his sisters were his light and he was theirs. There are no words or actions to provide any of us comfort except the capture of the person who exhibited nothing short of evil upon our loved one.”

  Gokada confirmed the “sudden and tragic loss” of its founder and CEO via Twitter, calling him “a great leader, inspiration and positive light for all of us.”

  “Our hearts go out to his friends, family and all those feeling the pain and heartbreak we are currently experiencing, here at Gokada,” the company said. “Fahim’s vision and belief in us will be with us forever, and we will miss him dearly. Thank you for understanding as we get through this.”

  In a second statement on its official Instagram Wednesday afternoon, Gokada said it was “shocked and saddened” by the “tragic circumstances” surrounding Saleh’s death. -ABC News

  “Fahim’s passion for Nigeria and its youth was immeasurable. He believed young Nigerians are extremely bright and talented individuals who would flourish if just given the right opportunity. Fahim also believed that technology can transform lives and improve safety and efficiency. He built Gokada to act upon these beliefs,” reads the statement from Gokada. 

  

• Chinese Military Exercises Threaten To Invade Taiwan
  Chinese Military Exercises Threaten To Invade Taiwan
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/15/2020 – 21:10

  Authored by Lawrence Franklin via The Gatestone Institute,

  China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is currently staging a military exercise across from the Taiwan Strait that looks as if it plans to culminate in an amphibious assault on an island in the South China Sea. Taiwan’s military — evidently fearing, with good reason, that the exercise may be a cover for an actual Chinese plan to seize another island in the region, Pratas (Dongsha), claimed by both the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan — has declared a state of emergency. The PLA exercise also looks as if it is preparing China’s air, naval and marine assets required for an invasion of Taiwan.

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  In 1996, China initiated a similar crisis in the Taiwan Strait by staging an amphibious assault military exercise. After President Bill Clinton deployed two powerful US aircraft carrier-led battle groups, China discontinued its aggressive posture toward Taiwan. Strategic analysts judged that the Chinese decision was the fruit of a realistic assessment that it could not overcome the US ability to defend Taiwan.

  The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), under current Chairman Xi Jinping, appears to be threatening war in a renewed effort to bring Taiwan under Communist Chinese control. The CCP considers Taiwan to be a Chinese province, an integral part of the mainland that ultimately must rejoin it, and the only remaining part of China yet to be returned after the Communists defeated the Nationalists in 1949. For China, it is unfinished business from 70 years ago. China has isolated Taiwan by requiring that all countries who want to have normal diplomatic ties with China must have no state-to-state links with Taiwan. Although the US consents to this diplomatic requirement, it also continues to provide Taiwan with weapon systems, enabling the island to defend itself against any Chinese invasion. US President Donald J. Trump recently authorized the latest sale of US weapons — including advanced heavy torpedoes — to Taiwan. Trump, earlier in his tenure, also approved the sale of anti-aircraft Stinger missiles, Abrams tanks, and F-16 fighter jets.

  Many foreign specialists on China seem to discount the possibility that the Chinese are willing to risk war with the West to subdue Taiwan. Serious consideration should nevertheless be given to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) determination to incorporate the “secessionist” province despite the danger of a conflict, especially if China considers the US distracted by the fallout of the Wuhan coronavirus that China unleashed on the world, and American voter squeamishness before a presidential election in four months.

  The CCP views Taiwan as an existential threat to continued Communist rule in China. Taiwan’s vibrant democracy is the alternate model to the CCP’s totalitarian rule. Despite China’s efforts to cut Taiwan off from the world, the country remains an economically successful and politically free society, less than 90 miles from the Chinese coast.

  Millions of mainland Chinese have visited Taiwan, a practice which could stimulate pressure by Chinese citizens on the Communist regime for liberalizing political reforms. If China assesses that its growing military power could quickly reduce Taiwan’s ability to defend itself or that the West has lost the will to defend the island, CCP Chairman Xi might direct the PLA to launch an invasion.

  China also doubtless took stock of the free world’s obliging passivity the past few weeks as Beijing seized Hong Kong. Not one country lifted a finger to stop them. The move was in explicit violation of China’s 1997 Joint Declaration with the United Kingdom to maintain “one country, two systems” until 2047.

  Presently, China seems to be assessing the West’s resolve to defend Taiwan, while simultaneously attempting to instill fear in the administration of Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen. China initiated this latest aggressive posture toward Taiwan shortly after President Tsai’s May 2016 election, possibly anticipating that Taiwan could declare formal independence from China. In recent months, the PLA’s deployment of air and naval assets near Taiwan have been violating the island’s airspace and territorial waters. China’s aggressive moves have included its deployment of Air Force H-6 bombers and SU-30 and J-11 fighter jets. China’s ongoing 79-day military exercise (May 14 – July 31) opposite Taiwan is being orchestrated by the PLA’s Southern Theater of Command, headquartered in Nanning, the capital city of China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in the south. The exercise features the dual deployment of the Chinese Navy’s two aircraft carriers, the Shandong and the Liaoning, just across the narrow Taiwan Strait in China’s Bohai Sea. The exercise is utilizing air-cushioned boats, amphibious assault vehicles, landing barges, and ground attack helicopters. Reportedly, the ongoing PLA military exercise will conclude with an amphibious assault by Chinese Marines upon Woody Island (Yongxing) in the Philippine Sea, south of Taiwan. Woody Island is occupied by Chinese troops is also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam (which calls the island Phu Lam).

  In response to China’s threatening exercise, Major General Lin Wen-Huang, Chief of Taiwan’s Joint Operations, asserted that Taiwan’s military had plans and preparations in place. General Lin, perhaps fearing that the actual target of the PLA amphibious assault is the Taiwan-occupied island of Pratas (Dongsha), 548 kilometers southwest of Taiwan, reinforced the island’s small Coast Guard contingent with hundreds of Taiwanese Marines from the 99th Brigade.

  Taiwan’s armed forces maintain close communication with the US military. In a “cross-strait” confrontation between Taiwan and China, American air and naval assets would be granted complete access to Taiwanese airfields and ports. The Trump Administration, signaling China not to assume dominance in the South and East China Seas, has conducted seven such “Freedom of Navigation” missions through the Taiwan Strait in 2020, and the US Navy has already deployed three aircraft carrier battle groups in the South China Sea.

  China’s Communist leaders should not miscalculate that the US is too immersed in domestic distractions to defend Taiwan militarily against any possible plans to threaten the island’s sovereignty.

  

• Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos And Others Hacked In Unprecedented Twitter Attack And Bitcoin Scam; Over $100,000 Stolen In Minutes
  Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos And Others Hacked In Unprecedented Twitter Attack And Bitcoin Scam; Over $100,000 Stolen In Minutes
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/15/2020 – 20:55

  Summary:

  • A massive hack which allegedly has originated at a Twitter employee with access to the user management panel was, has affected hundreds of billionaires and politicians, including Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bil Gates, Kanye West, Elon Musk, Wiz Khalifa, Apple, Uber, Jeff Bezos, Benjamin Netanyahu
  • Tweets urged people to send money to a Bitcoin address; Over $113,000 has been sent so far
  • Twitter: “We are investigating and taking steps to fix it”
  • For about an hour, Twitter blocked verified account users from sending tweets or resetting their passwords. Unfortunately around 630pm the blue checkmark scourge was back.

  Twitter may or may not be on it… or it could be just the hackers tweeting some more:

  You may be unable to Tweet or reset your password while we review and address this incident.

  — Twitter Support (@TwitterSupport) July 15, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  LOL cancel EVERYBODYhttps://t.co/CKoToOdpkE

  — David Burge (@iowahawkblog) July 15, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Meanwhile, some people are waiting for their money…

  WHERE IS MY MONEY! IVE BEEN WAITING! PLEASE SEND IT OR SEND MY MONEY BACK! pic.twitter.com/MIxfX2MK1G

  — Nyfrix (@Nyfrix) July 15, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And while the situation is slowly getting under control, here is a thought at what may happens next:

  That was fun.

  Now comes the real fun: extortion of billionaires and presidents for billions in bitcoin in exchange for not leaking their direct messages to the public

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 15, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  While the biggest loser from today’s massive hack was Twitter, the biggest winner was bitcoin and crypto in general. LunarCRUSH – which leverages artificial intelligence and machine learning to analyze cryptocurrency-focused social trends, search behaviors, internet chatter – compiled some data points regarding the Twitter hack. Here’s the interesting data (source: Twitter, Reddit, YouTube, Medium, all News…basically the internet) they found:

  1. For the first time ever, there have been over 550,000 social posts about crypto within 24 hours. This number excludes spam and bots.
  2. At 3 PM PDT today, for the first time ever there were over 100,000 unique individuals on social media posting about / mentioning Bitcoin.
  3. Out of all cryptocurrency-related social posts in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin’s share of all those posts went as high as 94.48%.
  4. This event has had a little-to-no effect so far for Bitcoin’s price, but TWTR is down in after-hours trading.
  5. Despite this potentially being looked at as a negative event, the negative event was really Twitter. The outcome was all-time high awareness across a much broader set of individuals that have never mentioned Bitcoin before.

  * * *

  Update 2: And Barack Obama now too:

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  The problem for twitter, as it scrambles to figure out what happened, is that this is not an actual hack of individual accounts, but as noted below, reportedly a Twitter employee with access to the user management panel was hacked. In other words, someone hacked a Twitter account with access to virtually every other Twitter account. That, if confirmed, would make the epic Sony hack from several years back, seem tiny in comparison.

  * * *

  Update: Joe Biden now too:

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  Incidentally, as this hack continues to propagate among some of the richest and most powerful people in the world, here is how to stop it:

  Rumor has it that the widespread twitter “hacks” are due to people using third party services on top of twitter for things like scheduling tweets. You can go to settings-> account -> apps and sessions -> then revoke access from all third party apps.

  — Ari Paul ⛓️ (@AriDavidPaul) July 15, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

   

  * * *

  The twitter accounts of some of the world’s richest men, including Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, Michael Bloomberg, Jeff Bezos and others, were hacked late on Wednesday, in what appears to be a version of a “Nigerian” bitcoin scam.

  At 440pm ET, Musk tweeted the following:

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  Microsoft founder Bill Gates had a similar tweet.

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  As did Jeff Bezos:

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  Mike Bloomberg felt generous too:

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  Kanye was not spared either:

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  And for a few minutes, Apple was hacked too..

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  … before all of its tweets were promptly deleted.

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  Other, less prominent accounts also seemed to be hacked at around that time, including this one:

  I just want to be with the cool kids, so I am doubling all payments sent to my BTC address for the next 30 minutes. You send $1,000, I send you back $2,000.

  BTC Address – bc1qxy2kgdygjrsqtzq2n0yrf2493p83kkfjhx0wlh

  Only going on for 30 minutes! Enjoy!

  — Alex B 📉📉 (@somospostpc) July 15, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Amazingly, in just the few minutes that the hack was active, it appears that over 10 bitcoin, or over $100,000 was sent to the hacker’s address.

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  Naturally, it wasn’t clear who was behind the shocking password breach, but according to the Malware Tech blog, a Twitter employee with access to the user management panel was hacked.

  Hearing a lot of unconfirmed rumors a Twitter employee with access to the user management panel was hacked.

  — MalwareTech (@MalwareTechBlog) July 15, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Of course, this being twitter, it didn’t take long for humorous hot takes:

  Another one!

  The way this guy keeps doing the “only for the next 30 minutes,” I expect him to start talking about “free supercharging” and an upcoming price increase on Full Self Driving! https://t.co/sF38aSOfYu

  — Mark B. Spiegel (@markbspiegel) July 15, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  If Trump tweets anything remotely sensible you’ll know this is a hack of epic proportions pic.twitter.com/l812Qbboxt

  — ForexLive (@ForexLive) July 15, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Elon Musk fake tweet does not show up on his twitter TL, this hacker is good

  — FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) July 15, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  BREAKING: The Secret Service has moved the president’s Twitter account to the bunker.

  — Wesley McGrew (@McGrewSecurity) July 15, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Twitter stock is down over 2% after hours as question swirl over just how easy it is to hack some of the world’s most important accounts.

  Needless to say, everyone is eagerly awaiting to see what Trump tweets next…

  

• Trump Administration Weighing Travel Ban On Chinese Communist Party Members
  Trump Administration Weighing Travel Ban On Chinese Communist Party Members
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/15/2020 – 20:52

  Topping off a day of increasingly aggressive tit-for-tat escalations between the US and China, the NYT reported late on Wednesday that the Trump administration is considering an extensive travel ban to the United States by members of the Chinese Communist Party and their families, a move that would almost certainly prompt retaliation against Americans seeking to enter or remain in China and further exacerbate tensions between the two nations.

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  Such a ban would be “the most provocative action against China by the United States since the start of the trade war between the two countries in 2018″ and would further deteriorate U.S.-China relations, which after several years of open clashes over economics, technology and global influence have devolved into a de facto new Cold War.

  Additionally, the draft proclamation could revoke the visas of party members and their families who are already in the country, leading to their expulsion. The NYT further adds that some of the proposed language is also aimed at limiting travel to the United States by members of the People’s Liberation Army and executives at state-owned enterprises (even though many of them are likely to also be party members).

  The presidential order would cite the same statute in the Immigration and Nationality Act used in a 2017 travel ban on a number of predominantly Muslim countries that gives the president power to temporarily block travel to the U.S. by foreign nationals who are deemed “detrimental to the interests of the United States.” The 2017 ban was fought in the courts and expanded this year.

  Then again, this being the NYT, the whole report may well be fake news based on a non-existent (or conflicted NSA) source seeking to spark even more conflict in the already strained US-Sino relations, and the paper of records tacitly hints as much saying that “details of the plan have not yet been finalized, and President Trump might ultimately reject it.”

  Assuming Trump is indeed considering such a ban, it wasn’t clear just how such a ban would be implemented: the Chinese Communist Party has 92 million members, and the U.S. government has no knowledge of party status for a vast majority of them. So trying to immediately identify party members to either prevent their entry or expel those already in the United States would be difficult. Meanwhile, almost three million Chinese citizens visited the United States in 2018.

  As the NYT further adds, officials at the White House, State Department and Department of Homeland Security have been involved in the discussion over the ban. Officials at those agencies also continue to debate a variety of formulations for banning Chinese travel to the United States short of barring all party members, such as targeting only the 25 members of the ruling Politburo and their families.

  Ironically, the report follows just hours after another anti-Trump outlet, Bloomberg, reported that the president “doesn’t want to further escalate tensions with Beijing, and has ruled out additional sanctions on top officials for now, according to people familiar with the matter.”

  So which is it: no sanctions or sanction 92 million Chinese communists? It’s safe to say that the truth is somewhere inbetween.

  

• ECB Preview : The Calm Before The Storm
  ECB Preview : The Calm Before The Storm
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/15/2020 – 20:30

  Submitted by Christopher Dembik, Head of Macro Analysis at Saxo Bank

  Summary:  We are onside with consensus in expecting no change in monetary policy this week. Now the German court challenge has been defused, the ECB can focus on the future of its bond purchases. Technical discussions should concern the likely slowdown in the path of bond purchases this summer, further flexibility in the PSPP (Public Sector Purchase Programme) parameters, and early talks about the Strategy Review that is due next year, especially regarding climate change. The ECB is likely to remain on alert as the second economic wave of the COVID-19, characterized by business restructuring and permanent closures, is about to hit the Eurozone and fragilize the banking sector.

  Timeline of the ECB’s response to the crisis:

  • March 12: The ECB decides to expand its QE programme by €120bn until the end of 2020, with a special focus on private sector bonds, such as corporate bonds, and to offer more favorable terms for the already planned TLTRO III with a rate up to -0.75%.

  • March 18: “Whatever it takes” moment. The ECB unveils its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) of €750bn until the end of 2020 with a high degree of flexibility: the 33% limit DOES NOT apply and the ECB can purchase debt across all the yield curve, including Greek debt under waiver. The QE program reach a total of €1050bn until the end of the year (including previous measures and the relaunch of QE by Draghi in 2019).

  • April 7: The ECB decides a very significant easing of its collateral requirements, including an expansion of eligible credit claims (ACCs) to SME loans, Greek debt (waiver) and a 20% reduction in haircuts.

  • April 22: The ECB accepts some junk-rated debt as collateral for loans to banks (Important caveats: the bonds must be rated as investment grade on April 7).

  • June 4: The ECB increases the €750bn envelope for the PEPP by €600bn to a total of €1350bn. All asset categories eligible under the existing asset purchase programme (APP) are also eligible under the new programme.

  • June 25: The ECB creates a Eurosystem repo facility to provide liquidity in EUR to central banks outside the euro area. This is a precautionary measure to alleviate potential euro funding difficulties due to the pandemic.

  The timely response to the pandemic by the ECB successfully managed to close governments financing gap in the Eurozone. Despite the depth of the recession and the large negative shock to the level of public debt, Italy is able to finance COVID-19 expenses at very low cost, without requesting financial help from the ESM. The 10-year Italy-Germany government bond spread is basically back to pre-COVID levels, at 1.66% versus a crisis peak at 2.77% in mid-March. The ECB’s greatest success is that it has avoided a remake of the 2012 debt crisis, by absorbing almost all new public debt related to the pandemic, and by providing as much liquidity as necessary to the market, thus preventing the emergence of a liquidity crisis. Much bas been said about Christine Lagarde’s appointment as president of the ECB, but we need to recognize, myself included, that we were probably too critical and that she has brilliantly managed the crisis, almost making us forget about Draghi.

  The ECB has managed to “fill the gap” in the Eurozone

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  Now the German Constitutional Court challenge has been defused, the ECB can focus on the future of its bond purchases. Technical discussions are likely to concern:

  • The slowdown in the path of the bond purchases, which usually happens during the summer season (July and August), and might be the main point of interest for investors this week;

  • Further flexibility in the PSPP parameters, especially regarding the 33% issuer limit. This issue needs to be addressed soon as there are many indications that the limits for German government bonds must be quite close.

  • As part of the Strategy Review due in 2021, early talks about how the ECB could help fighting climate change – a topic that has been at the heart of Lagarde’s speeches lately.

  Due to the ECB firepower and hopes for EU deal on the recovery plan “”Next Generation EU” this week at the physical EUCO meeting on July 17 and 18, sentiment of investors has significantly improved over the past weeks regarding European financial assets, and especially the euro. Speculators are betting on a higher euro as they take their long position close to their annual high point, currently at 180,387 contracts. This move also reflects aversion against the USD due to the health crisis in the United States and the impact on the greenback of the Federal Reserve flooding the markets with US dollars. At least in the short term, the euro should keep performing well.

  The ECB’s timely action and hopes for EU deal on budget and recovery plan have driven positive sentiment of investors regarding the euro

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  However, there is no room for complacency. Downside risks remain elevated for the coming months. The ECB is likely to remain on alert as the second economic wave of the COVID-19, characterized by business restructuring and permanent closures, is about to hit the Eurozone and fragilize the banking sector. Though the ECB systemic stress indicator has receded from its annual peak reached in mid-March, it is still in risk-zone territory at 0.21, confirming that further support from the ECB might be needed to limit financial issues that could slow down the recovery. It will be of prime importance to monitor well risks on the banking sector related to payment deferrals, that has been granted to consumers and businesses in order to cope with the crisis. These risks will only become apparent over time and might cause a sharp increase in the ratio of non-performing loans in the most vulnerable countries.

  Euro area systemic stress remains in risk-zone

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• Civil Unrest
  Civil Unrest
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/15/2020 – 20:10

  Authored by Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist at Rabobank

  Civil Unrest

  Summary

  • In contrast to most other developed countries, the first wave of COVID-19 has not been suppressed in the US. Both at the federal and state level institutions are failing.
  • Protests against COVID-19 measures and against racism reflect a lack of trust in US institutions that predates the outbreak of the virus. In a polarized society trust in institutions is likely to be vulnerable.
  • No matter who wins the elections, the turbulence in US politics and society is not likely to pass. In fact, what we are seeing now may be only the beginning.

  First wave failure

  In the last months we have seen the US taking a descent into chaos. In contrast to most other developed countries, the first wave of COVID-19 has not been suppressed. In fact, in June the daily amount of new confirmed cases surpassed the initial peak reached in April. At the same time, a coherent federal plan to turn this around seems lacking. At the state level, economies have been reopened before meeting the criteria set out earlier by the White House. At the individual level, we have seen many protests against measures to contain the virus.

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  Stop the killing

  Meanwhile, protests of another nature have taken over the streets. The endless series of police killings finally sparked a national outrage when images of the Minneapolis police murdering George Floyd were seen around the world. Of course this was nothing new. In fact, over the years many black Americans have lost their lives at the hands of the police. In most cases, the police got away with it. However, in this age of smartphones with cameras and social media, white Americans finally saw what black Americans experience.

  Earlier during the coronacrisis, the second rate US citizenship of black Americans was evident in the asymmetric impact of COVID-19 that we noted in the April Monthly Outlook. According to CDC data (Table 1) black Americans have a COVID-19 associated hospitalization rate almost 5 times that of white Americans, adjusted for age. In fact, for native Americans this ratio is even higher. Living conditions, work circumstances and healthcare inequities put several ethnic minority groups at increased risk during COVID-19 according to the CDC.

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  V or W?

  In sharp contrast to the widely broadcast civil unrest, stock markets have rebounded rapidly and the economic data for May and June suggest that the real economy is following. However, we should note that the recovery in the stock markets did not start until after the Fed had cut rates to zero, announced QE Infinity and launched its special lending facilities, which included corporate bonds. The recovery in the real economy follows a sharp contraction caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 and the lockdown that followed. The decline in economic activity in March and April was so steep that it caused both Q1 and Q2 GDP growth to be negative. The rebound we are now seeing is simply the effect of opening up the economy again. This is a mechanical rebound, and as we explained in The Recession of 2020: The Horror Version, we will have to wait until Q4 before we could see demand fluctuations determine GDP growth again. Then we will see how much damage really has been done.

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  Crumbling institutions

  So at the moment there is this sharp contrast between the economic data and stock price levels on the Bloomberg screens and the images and discussions on TV. Note that both types of protests we mentioned, against COVID-19 measures and against racism, reflect a lack of trust in US institutions that predates the outbreak of the virus. In fact, data collected by the Pew Center show that trust in the federal government has fallen since the mid-1960s. In terms of economics, institutions are not working for Americans, unless you are one of the 1%. In terms of civil rights, institutions have failed black Americans and native Americans in particular.

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  Polarization

  What’s more, in a polarized society trust in institutions is likely to be vulnerable. US politics has become polarized. Today, liberals vote for the Democrats and conservatives for the Republicans. This was not always the case however. In the 1950s there were liberals and conservatives in both parties. In fact, while many millennials regard the Democratic party as a beacon of political correctness, this party was a broad coalition that included Southern segregationists (= white supremacists) until the 1960s. Also, both in the Senate and the House of Representatives a higher percentage of Republicans voted for the Civil Rights Act of 1964 than Democrats. However, when Southern Democrats started to switch to the Republican Party after the Civil Rights Act, Northern liberals switched to the Democratic Party and this led to the sorting of liberals and conservatives between the two parties. Subsequently, the two parties were also sorted by race, religion and geography. This sorting process was a prelude to the polarization between the two parties. Political affiliation became part of someone’s identity. This also led to an increased aversion to the other party. The tone between the left and the right has become increasingly hostile. In light of this the polarization that we have seen in recent years is not caused by Trump, rather it is the other way around. The election of Trump is a consequence of this historical process. Polarization made it possible.

  Moreover, polarization is even visible in opinions about the coronavirus outbreak (Table 2). With a lack of direction from the federal government, this makes a coherent national policy to get the outbreak under control very difficult.

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  Only the beginning?

  The question is where does the US go from here? If President Trump is re-elected, he will be at the wheel for four more years, but this time without any restrictions imposed by concerns about re-election. If Biden takes the White House, federal policies will shift to the left again (for more details see the May Monthly Outlook). But will this lead to renewed trust in institutions? Perhaps for some on the left, but what about the rest? In a heavily polarized country, there is little common ground. Meanwhile, if right-wing populism is expelled from the White House, this does not mean it is going to disappear. It will only reorganize. Hopefully in the political arena, but we could also see another boost to violent right-wing extremism. In fact, right-wing attacks and plots account for the majority of terrorist incidents in the US since the mid-1990s. In the last six years, this has grown substantially (Figure 4). So no matter who wins the elections, the turbulence in US politics and society is not likely to pass. In fact, what we are seeing now may be only the beginning.

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• Philly Mayor's Ban On Large Events "Does Not Apply" To Protests Or "Demonstrations"
  Philly Mayor’s Ban On Large Events “Does Not Apply” To Protests Or “Demonstrations”
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/15/2020 – 19:50

  Authored by Nicholas Bailey via JustTheNews.com,

  Philadelphia Democratic Mayor James Kenney says his city-wide ban on large events and gatherings through February 2021 does not apply to protests.

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  “The city’s office of special events will not accept, review, process or approve applications, issue permits or enter into agreements for special events or public gatherings of 50 people or more on public property through the end of February. The moratorium will apply to special events and public gatherings, including but not limited to festivals, parades, concerts, carnivals, fairs and flea markets,” Kenney said during a coronavirus video update on Tuesday.

  “In addition, permit applications for residential block permits will not be accepted until further notice. The timeline when such activities may resume will be communicated as soon as possible. To be clear, this hold on large public events does not, does not apply to demonstrations and First Amendment protected activities,” he added.

  Just the News reached out to the mayor’s office to learn whether the city will issue formal permits for protests or demonstrations on municipal property during the large-event ban. The office did not respond before publication.

  There have been many Black Lives Matter protests taking place in cities across the U.S. during the pandemic since the May 25 death of George Floyd while in the custody of Minneapolis police. Some demonstrations have resulted in destructive protests marked by looting, vandalism and removal of statues from public grounds. 

  According to local media reports, Kenney recently waived “all protest-related code violations that were issued over the last month of protests in Philadelphia against systemic racial injustice.”

  “My decision to waive these violations is not a statement on the validity of the individual citations,” Kenney said in a statement.

  “Rather, it is a recognition of the core concerns that caused thousands to demonstrate on the streets of Philadelphia. In waiving these notices, I recognize that those issues are vitally important, that the pain of those marching is very real, and that their message – Black lives matter – needs to be heard every day until systemic racism is fully eradicated from this city and nation.”

  

• China Rocked By "Unprecedented" Surge In Bank Runs
  China Rocked By “Unprecedented” Surge In Bank Runs
  
  Tyler Durden
  
  Wed, 07/15/2020 – 19:30

  At first, it was an unthinkable taboo – after all with a banking system that’s twice as large as that of the US, the last thing Beijing wanted (or could afford) was doubts that the people’s trillions in savings were safe as the alternative was not just a collapse of the financial sector but a breach of China’s capital controls firewall as tens of millions scrambled to move their savings abroad, in the process obliterating the yuan. Then, starting in early 2019 after several banks quietly failed or were not so quietly nationalized…

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  … most notably the inner-Mongolia-based Baoshang Bank which was seized in the first state takeover since 1998, domestic confidence in China’s banking system was suddenly – and perhaps irreparably – shaken, leading to scattered scenes such as these as depositor runs hammered several  Chinese banks , forcing Beijing to unleash unprecedented damage control (and internet censorship) to keep the illusion that all is well.

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  Fast forward to today, when a confluence of the adverse trends that emerged in 2018 and 2019, coupled with the historic economic slowdown in China’s economy, and accelerated by social media-fueled rumors about collapsing banks have sparked what Bloomberg called an “unprecedented” surge of bank runs, forcing regulators and even the police to step in to calm depositors.

  According to Bloomberg, in just the past few weeks, worried savers have descended on three banks to withdraw funds amid rumors of cash shortages that were later dismissed as false.

  Over the weekend customers rushed to a bank in the northern Hebei province to take out money, prompting local regulators to publicly vouch for the soundness of its lenders as the police halted the run.

  Indeed, as Bloomberg adds, “after several bailouts and the first bank seizure in more than two decades last year, the coronavirus outbreak and its economic fallout have exacerbated an already shaky situation in the world’s largest banking system” leading to a sharp erosion of confidence in the $43 trillion banking system among the nation’s more than 1 billion account holders, threatening a cornerstone of China’s rise into an economic powerhouse.

  “The perception Chinese savers had of banks being risk free is changing even though in nearly all recent cases their deposits have been protected,” said China International Capital Corp analyst Zhang Shuaishuai.

  “Once a rumor like this spreads, it brings immediate liquidity risk to a bank.”

  There is probably a reason for why these “rumors” have led to such a dramatic response: they merely bring to the surface whatever most already know, namely that behind its sterling facade, China’s banking system is rotten to the core, with lies upon lies about trillions in non-performing loans…

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  .. coupled with growing risks from billions parked at China’s unregulated and unstable shadow banking system (best known recently for stories such as this one “Anxin Trust’s $7 Billion Investment Black Hole“)

  While regular readers are all too familiar with the story, Bloomberg recaps quickly why it is so crucial for Beijing to preserve the illusions that Chinese savings are sacrosanct and why bank runs can never take hold:

  For decades, deposit-taking has provided a stable and low-cost funding base for China’s financial market, playing a key part in the rise of its economy to the second largest in the world. Chinese households hold about 90 trillion yuan ($13 trillion) of bank deposits, more than anywhere else in the world. 

  China’s increasingly shaky banking system has also been cited as one of the reasons why Beijing has been aggressively seeking to blow another stock market bubble in hopes it leads to fund flows away from bank savings accounts: after all, it’s politically safer and more palatable to store funds in capital markets rather than in banks, which are looking increasingly shaky by the day. Ultimately, if faced with a decision between another stock bubble-bust cycle, or a loss of confidence in its banks, Beijing will always pick the former.

  In any case, regulators are now not only seeking to soothe nerves publicly, but are also raising the protection to preserve this cushion for banks. The run in Hebei came after authorities kicked off a pilot program to limit large transactions in the province. The two-year program, which Bloomberg explains is set to be expanded to Zhejiang and Shenzhen in October to encompass 70 million people, would require retail clients to pre-report any large withdrawals or deposits of 100,000 yuan ($14,000) to 300,000 yuan.

  That could be problematic to say the least in a country whose own banking regulator, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, on Saturday again warned that lenders are facing a surge in bad debt as the economy sputters at its slowest pace in four decades.

  While stopgap measures, which have included rolling over debt and delaying loan payments, have limited an immediate surge in bad debt, the regulator said the fundamental issues of poorly managed banks and the deteriorating ability of companies and individuals to repay loans are still far from solved. They are also asking banks to forgo 1.5 trillion yuan in profit this year by offering lower lending rates, cutting fees, deferring loan repayments, and granting more unsecured loans to small businesses to help the economy.

  Alas for China’s regulators, they are facing an uphill battle: with authorities overseeing more than 3,000 banks, most of which are small, rural entities without ready access to capital, their job equates to whack-a-mole – the moment they stop one bank run, several new ones take its place. And so, in another unprecedented move, China now plans to allow local governments to use about 200 billion yuan from bond sales to help smaller banks replenish their capital.

  It gets worse.

  According to S&P, China’s industry may suffer a whopping 8 trillion yuan increase in bad debt this year. Even without this balance sheet “neutron bomb” small banks are facing a $349 billion shortfall in capital, according to UBS analysts, leading to even more small bank failures. Putting that figure at only $50 billion, the regulator said the shortfall could mean slower profit growth or even sliding profits at some institutions.

  Meanwhile corporate bonds are also suffering, adding further pressure on banks and hurting corporate funding. According to Bloomberg data, about 80 billion yuan worth of Chinese bonds defaulted on and offshore so far this year, the most in at least three years.

  The result of all this, predictably, has been a collapse in confidence in Chinese banks and its logical next step: bank runs.

  In the most recent episodes, authorities stepped in last month to halt banks runs at two local lenders in Hebei and Shanxi. On July 11, savers rushed to withdraw money from Hengshui Bank, also based in Hebei, before the police put a stop to it.

  In response, the local offices of the People’s Bank of China and the CBIRC did what China does best: they scrambled to preserve confidence in the system, saying in a joint statement that Hengshui Bank and its branches are legitimate financial entities where any savings under half a million yuan are protected under China’s deposit insurance regulation. They also reassured depositors that their money is safe and urged them not to “blindly” withdraw savings.

  In fact, they also urged them not to withdraw savings at all.

  When that did not work, police took people into custody, issuing reprimands to those spreading rumors, according to the statement.

  Meanwhile, as Bloomberg adds, Hengshui Bank said in an emailed reply on Wednesday that the city government is actively dealing with the issue and called for less publicity for fear the incident leads to regional systemic risks.  In other words, China is now aggressively censoring any online media that discusses China’s questionably solvent banks.

  Knowing this won’t work, regulators have been working on a plan since last year that would see more small banks merge to shore up their strength, but so far little of that effort has come to fruition.

  “China has too many banks,” said Zhang. “Quite a few of them are weak in corporate governance and earnings capacity. A better option is to take a more proactive approach to restructuring those regional banks.” He is, of course, correct, however any restructuring would require taking a very risk first step of admitting banks have a big problem, and with China having swept up its bank problems under the rug for years, it is anybody’s guess how the world’s largest depositor base reacts on learning that its money resides in the world’s biggest house of cards.

  

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