- It Wasn't The "Virus" That Crashed The Economy, It Was The People Who Obeyed
It Wasn’t The “Virus” That Crashed The Economy, It Was The People Who Obeyed
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/16/2020 – 00:10Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,
Most atrocities in human history have all been committed by individuals and agents of government who were “just following orders” or “just obeying the law.” The virus didn’t give any orders. It was the people who obeyed the commands of tyrants that crashed the economy and ruined the livelihoods of others.
Most human beings still think like slaves. Instead of asking questions or using critical thinking skills to ask if something is right before doing it, they simply obey perceived “authority”. The truth is, this lockdown is the fault of everyone who complied and everyone who used forced to exact revenge on those who disobeyed. It was the same in all tyrannical takeovers in history.
The mainstream media keeps blaming the economic devastation on the coronavirus, but it wasn’t the fault of a virus. It was the fault of the government and the slave mentality of the police and the public willingly obeying their commands.
Mainstream media outlets are still trying desperately to spin the narrative and fault the “invisible enemy” for the very real toll on human life the government’s overreaction has already caused. This is nothing more than propaganda, and once you pick it up, you’ll be able to see it. The media doesn’t want you to put the blame where it belongs and figure things out for yourself, so they hide behind deception headlines that will keep you in fear of COVID-19 as long as possible.
This is all a part of the larger plan to keep the public panicked about a virus and looking the other way when the tyrannical boots of the state come down on them. We know this is what the media does, and we know they are doing it to keep the ruling class in power and the public panicked and in a constant state of fear so they will comply with any and all enslavement measures.
Larken Rose, the author of Most Dangerous Superstition, lays out just how horrifyingly devastating it is for humans to remain unevolved to the point that they will not say “no” to an immoral command. The primary threat to freedom and justice is not greed, or hatred, or any of the other emotions or human flaws usually blamed for such things. Instead, it is one ubiquitous superstition that infects the minds of people of all races, religions, and nationalities, which deceives decent, well-intentioned people into supporting and advocating violence and oppression. Even without making human beings one bit more wise or virtuous, removing that one superstition would remove the vast majority of injustice and suffering from the world.
Instead of just blindly obeying the commands, think about it and ask if what you are doing is right. Do you have the moral right to take the rights of others? Applying even the most minimal amount of critical thinking to something can usually get people to what is right. But you have to do be willing to take a look at yourself, and correct your mistakes yourself, and take responsibility for your own actions. Which is exactly why most Americans won’t. Blaming a virus and blindly obeying the ruling class and it’s foot soldiers is much easier than critical thinking.
The police state and tyranny is brought to you by those willing to follow commands, regardless of the morality of the command. Tyrants can’t have power without people willing to enforce the tyranny. If there are no order followers, there are no orders.
- Nevada: The Real 'Golden' State
Nevada: The Real ‘Golden’ State
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 23:50Thanks to the world famous silver discoveries of the 19th century that unveiled Nevada’s precious metal potential, the state today is known by many as “The Silver State”.
However, as Visual Capitalist’s Nichaolas LePan notes, it’s possible that nickname may need to be updated. In the last few decades, Nevada has become a prolific gold producer, accounting for 84% of total U.S. gold production each year.
Today’s infographic from Corvus Gold showcases why Nevada may have a better case for deserving California’s nickname of the “Golden State”: we look at the state’s gold production, exploration potential, and even its rich history.
A Defining Era for the American West
The discovery of the Comstock silver lode in 1859 sparked a silver rush of prospectors to Nevada, scrambling to stake their claims. News of the discovery spread quickly throughout the United States, drawing thousands into Nevada for one of the largest rushes since the California Gold Rush in 1849. Mining camps soon thrived and eventually became towns, a catalyst that helped turn the territory into an official state by 1864.
Interestingly, many of the early mines also produced considerable quantities of gold, indicating there was more to the state than just silver.
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The Comstock Lode: 8,600,000 troy ounces (270t) of gold until 1959
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The Eureka district: 1,200,000 troy ounces (37t) of gold
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The Robinson copper mine: 2,700,000 troy ounces (84t) of gold
The Comstock Lode is notable not just for the immense fortunes it generated but also the large role those fortunes had in the growth of Nevada and San Francisco.
In fact, there was so much gold and silver flowing into San Francisco, the U.S. Mint opened a branch in the city to safely store it all. Within the first year of its operation, the San Francisco Mint turned $4 million of gold bullion into coins for circulation.
While California gold rushes became history, Nevada mining was just beginning and would spur the development of modern industry. In 2018, California produced 140,000 troy ounces of gold, just a fraction of the 5.58 million oz coming out of Nevada’s ground.
Nevada Gold Mining Geology: Following the Trends
There are three key geological trends from where the majority of Nevada’s gold comes from.
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Cortez Trend
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Carlin Trend
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Walker Lane Trend
Together these trends contributed nearly 170 million ounces of gold produced in Nevada between 1835 and 2018, making it the United States’ most productive gold jurisdiction, if not the world’s.
The bulk of production comes from the Cortez and Carlin Trends, where mines extract low grade gold from a particular type of mineral deposit, the Carlin Type Gold deposit. It was the discovery and technology used for processing these “invisible” deposits that would turn Nevada into the golden powerhouse of production.
Today, the world’s largest gold mining complex, Nevada Gold Mines, is located on the Carlin Trend. The joint venture between Barrick and Newmont comprises eight mines, along with their infrastructure and processing facilities.
Despite the prolific production of modern mines in the state, more discoveries will be needed to feed this production pipeline—and discoveries are on the decline in Nevada.
Looking to the Future Through the Past: The Walker Lane Trend
The future for gold mining in Nevada may lie in the Walker Lane Trend. This trend is host to some of the most recent gold discoveries, and has attracted the interest of major mining companies looking to conduct exploration, and eventually, production.
Walker Lane stands out with exceptional high-grades, growing reserves, and massive discovery potential. It also played an integral role in the history of the state beginning with the 1859 discovery of the Comstock Lode, and it seems likely to continue doing so in the future.
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- China Has Jailed Hundreds Of People For Questioning Official COVID-19 Narrative, Report
China Has Jailed Hundreds Of People For Questioning Official COVID-19 Narrative, Report
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 23:30Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,
China has arrested and imprisoned hundreds of people for merely discussing the coronavirus outbreak in any context that strays from the communist party narrative on the epidemic, according to a report from a US based Chinese organisation.
Fox News pointed to the report by China Digital Times containing statistics that show between Jan. 1 and April 4, nearly 500 people were arrested and charged, merely for talking about the virus.
The indiscretions levelled at those jailed include criticism of the response to the outbreak by the Chinese government, and questioning the number of deaths.
In some cases, people were arrested for pointing out that the seven funeral homes in Wuhan were overwhelmingly busy.
Others were targeted by the CCP for “referring to someone who has already been censored or arrested.”
In one instance, lawyer Zhang Xuezhong was arrested for suggesting that “the government’s long-term tight control over society and people has almost completely destroyed the organization and self-help capabilities of Chinese society.”
Xuezhong was detained after he wrote that “The best way to fight for freedom of expression is for everyone to speak as if we already have freedom of speech,” in a WeChat post that was seen by the authorities.
The South China Morning Post has since reported that Xuezhong was released after “questioning”, and hasn’t responded to requests for comment about his arrest.
The censorship report also notes how doctors trying to warn the rest of the world about the severity of the outbreak were silenced.
Fox News notes that Dr. Li Wenliang, a 34-year-old ophthalmologist at Wuhan Central Hospital in China’s Hubei Province was “reprimanded by authorities for trying to warn others about the disease in late December.”
“Li was “summoned” by police and forced to sign a letter stating that he made false comments about the virus. His ironic death from the virus at a hospital in Wuhan – where he treated patients and likely contracted the virus – renewed longstanding anger about the communist party’s alleged lies and suppression of information in the country,” the report states.
As we have previously noted, many doctors and researchers were silenced early on during the outbreak by the communist state.
Their warnings could have spared 95% of the globe from the consequences of the virus, according to research.
The censorship report from China Digital Times also notes that “Even entertainment shows that have nothing to do with politics are being rigorously scrutinized and censored for political content.”
While the west is yet to go so far as imprisonment for those questioning the coronavirus fallout, Big tech is actively silencing any dissenting voices on the matter, claiming that questions and theorising on the origins of the outbreak, the motives behind the responses of our governments, and the true scale of the pandemic are all potentially “harmful.”
- Second COVID-19 Wave Hits USS Theodore Roosevelt
Second COVID-19 Wave Hits USS Theodore Roosevelt
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 23:10A second coronavirus has reportedly hit the USS Theodore Roosevelt after five sailors who had returned retested positive for the virus.
In March, as many as 1,000 of the vessel’s 4,900 crew tested positive and were evacuated to shore. The Navy quickly implemented screening procedures to allow those who had recovered to return if they tested negative.
The New York Times first reported the emergence of the virus outbreak on Wednesday.
Commander Myers Vasquez, a Navy spokesman, told CNN in a statement Thursday that “five TR Sailors who previously tested COVID positive and met rigorous recovery criteria have retested positive. The Navy recovery criteria exceed all CDC guidelines.”
“The five Sailors developed influenza-like illness symptoms and executed their personal responsibility by reporting to medical for evaluation,” Vasquez said. “The Sailors were immediately removed from the ship and placed back in isolation, their close contacts were mapped, and they are receiving the required medical care.”
The vessel is currently docked in Guam. The sailors, who have been reinfected, were removed from the ship. An additional 18 crew members were also removed due to their close proximity to the infected sailors.
A US defense official told CNN that the “flare-up” in cases could be the result of a testing issue than a renewed outbreak.
The Navy said Thursday, following the outbreak in March, more than 2,900 sailors have returned to the ship.
The outbreak on the aircraft carrier led to the firing of the ship’s commanding officer, and the resignation of the acting Navy secretary.
The Navy launched an investigation into the events that led up to the outbreak on the ship, which effectively rendered the vessel inoperable. There were additional reports that the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier also saw confirmed virus cases in late March.
While the Navy was bogged down by virus spreading in March/April, China found the opportunity to launch major war exercises in the South China Sea during this time.
- The Complete "Collusion Against Trump" Timeline
The Complete “Collusion Against Trump” Timeline
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 22:50It’s easy to find timelines that detail Trump-Russia collusion developments. Here are links to two of them I recommend:
On the other side, evidence has emerged that makes it clear there were organized efforts to collude against candidate Donald Trump – and then President Trump. For example:
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Anti-Russian Ukrainians allegedly helped coordinate and execute a campaign against Trump in partnership with the Democratic National Committee and news reporters.
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A Yemen-born ex-British spy reportedly delivered political opposition research against Trump to reporters, Sen. John McCain, and the FBI; the latter of which used the material–in part–to obtain wiretaps against one or more Trump-related associates.
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There were orchestrated leaks of anti-Trump information and allegations to the press, including by ex-FBI Director James Comey.
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The U.S. intel community allegedly engaged in questionable surveillance practices and politially-motivated “unmaskings” of U.S. citizens, including Trump officials.
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Alleged conflicts of interests have surfaced regarding FBI officials who cleared Hillary Clinton for mishandling classified information and who investigated Trump’s alleged Russia ties.
But it’s not so easy to find a timeline pertinent to the investigations into these events.
Related: Obama Era Surveillance Timeline
Here’s a work in progress…
(Please note that nobody cited has been charged with wrongdoing or crimes, unless the charge is specifically referenced. Temporal relationships are not necessarily evidence of a correlation.)
“Collusion against Trump” Timeline
2011
U.S. intel community vastly expands its surveillance authority, giving itself permission to spy on Americans who do nothing more than “mention a foreign target in a single, discrete communication.” Intel officials also begin storing and entering into a searchable database sensitive intelligence on U.S. citizens whose communications are accidentally or “incidentally” captured during surveillance of foreign targets. Prior to this point, such intelligence was supposed to be destroyed to protect the constitutional privacy rights the U.S. citizens. However, it’s required that names U.S. citizens be hidden or “masked” –even inside U.S. intel agencies –to prevent abuse.
Click here to read “Timeline of alleged sabotage of Trump in 2016 by Democrats and Ukraine.”
2012
July 1, 2012: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton improperly uses unsecured, personal email domain to email President Obama from Russia.
2013
June 2013: FBI interviews U.S. businessman Carter Page, who’s lived and worked in Russia, regarding his ongoing contacts with Russians. Page reportedly tells FBI agents their time would be better spent investigating Boston Marathon bombing (which the FBI’s Andrew McCabe helped lead). Page later claims his remark prompts FBI retaliatory campaign against him. The FBI, under McCabe, will later wiretap Page after Page becomes a Donald Trump campaign adviser.
FBI secretly records suspected Russian industrial spy Evgeny Buryakov. It’s later reported that Page helped FBI build the case.
Sept. 4, 2013: James Comey becomes FBI Director, succeeding Robert Mueller.
2014
Russia invades Ukraine. Ukraine steps up hiring of U.S. lobbyists to make its case against Russia and obtain U.S. aid. Russia also continues its practice of using U.S. lobbyists.
Ukraine forms National Anti-Corruption Bureau as a condition to receive U.S. aid. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau later signs evidence-sharing agreement with FBI related to Trump-Russia probe.
Ukrainian-American Alexandra Chalupa, a paid consultant for the Democratic National Committee (DNC), begins researching lobbyist Paul Manafort’s Russia ties.
FBI investigates, and then wiretaps, Paul Manafort for allegedly not properly disclosing Russia-related work. FBI fails to make a case, according to CNN, and discontinues wiretap.
August 2014: State Dept. turns over 15,000 pages of documents to Congressional Benghazi committee, revealing former secretary of state Hillary Clinton used private server for government email. Her mishandling of classified info on this private system becomes subject of FBI probe.
2015
FBI opens investigation into Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe, including for donations from a Chinese businessman and Clinton Foundation donor.
FBI official Andrew McCabe meets with Gov. McAuliffe, a close Clinton ally. Afterwards, “McAuliffe-aligned political groups donated about $700,000 to Mr. McCabe’s wife for her campaign to become a Democrat state Senator in Virginia.” The fact of the McAuliffe-related donations to wife of FBI’s McCabe, while FBI was investigating McAuliffe and Clinton later becomes the subject of conflict of interest inquiry by Inspector General.
Feb. 9, 2015: U.S. Senate forms Ukrainian caucus to further Ukrainian interests. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is a member.
March 4, 2015: New York Times breaks news about Clinton’s improper handling of classified email as secretary of state.
In internal emails, Clinton campaign chairman (and former Obama adviser) John Podesta suggests Obama withhold Clinton’s emails from Congressional Benghazi committee under executive privilege.
March 2015: Attorney General Loretta Lynch privately directs FBI Director James Comey to call FBI Clinton probe a “matter” rather than an “investigation.” Comey follows the instruction, though he later testifies that it made him “queasy.”
March 7, 2015: President Obama says he first learned of Clinton’s improper email practices “through news reports.” Clinton campaign staffers privately contradict that claim emailing: “it looks like [President Obama] just said he found out [Hillary Clinton] was using her personal email when he saw it on the news.” Clinton aide Cheryl Mills responds, “We need to clean this up, [President Obama] has emails from” Clinton’s personal account.
May 19, 2015: Justice Dept. Assistant Attorney General for Legislative Affairs Peter Kadzik emails Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta from a private Gmail account to give him a “heads ups” involving Congressional questions about Clinton email.
Summer 2015: Democratic National Committee computers are hacked.
Sept. 2015: Glenn Simpson, co-founder of political opposition research firm Fusion GPS, is hired by conservative website Washington Free Beacon to compile negative research on presidential candidate Donald Trump and other Republicans.
Oct. 2015: President Obama uses a “confidentiality tradition” to keep his Benghazi emails with Hillary Clinton secret.
Oct. 12, 2015: FBI Director Comey replaces head of FBI Counterintelligence Division at New York Field Office with Louis Bladel.
Oct. 22, 2015: Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) publicly states that Clinton is “not under criminal investigation.”
Clinton testifies to House Benghazi committee.
Oct. 23, 2015: Clinton campaign chair John Podesta meets for dinner with small group of friends including a top Justice Dept. official Peter Kadzik.
Late 2015: Democratic operative Chalupa expands her political opposition research about Paul Manafort to include Trump’s ties to Russia. She “occasionally shares her findings with officials from the Democratic National Committee and the Clinton campaign.”
Dec. 4, 2015: Donald Trump is beating his nearest Republican presidential competitor by 20 points in latest CNN poll.
Dec. 9, 2015: FBI Director Comey replaces head of FBI Counterintelligence Division at Washington Field Office with Charles Kable.
Dec. 23, 2015: FBI Director Comey names Bill Priestap as assistant director of Counterintelligence Division.
2016
Obama officials vastly expand their searches through NSA database for Americans and the content of their communications. In 2013, there were 9,600 searches involving 195 Americans. But in 2016, there are 30,355 searches of 5,288 Americans.
Justice Dept. associate deputy attorney general Bruce Ohr meets with Fusion GPS’ Christopher Steele, the Yemen-born ex-British spy leading anti-Trump political opposition research project.
January 2016: Democratic operative Ukrainian-American Chalupa tells a senior Democratic National Committee official that she feels there’s a Russia connection with Trump.
Jan. 29, 2016: FBI Director Comey promotes Andrew McCabe to FBI Deputy Director.
McCabe takes lead on Clinton probe even though his wife received nearly $700,000 in campaign donations through Clinton ally Terry McAuliffe, who’s also under FBI investigation.
March 2016: Clinton campaign chair John Podesta’s email gets hacked.
FBI interviews Carter Page again.
Carter Page is named as one of the Trump campaign’s foreign policy advisers.
March 2, 2016: FBI Director Comey replaces head of Intelligence Division of Washington Field Office with Gerald Roberts, Jr.
March 11, 2016: Russian Evgeny Buryakovwhich pleads guilty to spying in FBI case that Carter Page reportedly assisted with.
March 25, 2016: Ukrainian-American operative for Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chalupa meets with top Ukrainian officials at Ukrainian Embassy in Washington D.C. to “expose ties between Trump, top campaign aide Paul Manafort and Russia,” according to Politico. Chalupa previously worked for the Clinton administration.
Ukrainian embassy proceeds to work “directly with reporters researching Trump, Manafort and Russia to point them in the right directions,” according to an embassy official (though other officials later deny engaging in election-related activities.)
March 29, 2016: Trump campaign hires Paul Manafort as manager of July Republican convention.
March 30, 2016: Ukrainian-American Democratic operative Alexandra Chalupa briefs Democratic National Committee (DNC) staff on Russia ties to Paul Manafort and Trump.
With “DNC’s encouragement,” Chalupa asks Ukrainian embassy to arrange meeting with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to discuss Manafort’s lobbying for Ukraine’s former president Viktor Yanukovych. The embassy declines to arrange meeting but becomes “helpful” in trading info and leads.
Ukrainian embassy officials and Democratic operative Chalupa “coordinat[e] an investigation with the Hillary team” into Paul Manafort, according to a source in Politico. This effort reportedly includes working with U.S. media.
April 2016: There’s a second breach of Democratic National Committee computers.
Washington Free Beacon breaks off deal with Glenn Simpson’s Fusion GPS for political opposition research against Trump.
Clinton campaign and Democratic National Committee lawyer Mark Elias and his law firm, Perkins Coie, hire Fusion GPS for anti-Trump political research project.
Ukrainian member of parliament Olga Bielkova reportedly seeks meetings with five dozen members of U.S. Congress and reporters including former New York Times reporter Judy Miller, David Sanger of New York Times, David Ignatius of Washington Post, and Washington Post editorial page editor Fred Hiatt.
April 5, 2016: Convicted spy Buryakov is turned over to Russia.
Week of April 6, 2016: Ukrainian-American Democratic operative Chalupa and office of Rep. Mary Kaptur (D-Ohio), co-chair of Congressional Ukrainian Caucus, discuss possible congressional investigation or hearing on Paul Manafort-Russia “by September.”
Chalupa begins working with investigative reporter Michael Isikoff, according to her later account.
April 10, 2016: In national TV interview, President Obama states that Clinton did not intend to harm national security when she mishandled classified emails. FBI Director James Comey later concludes that Clinton should not face charges because she did not intend to harm national security.
Around this time, the FBI begins drafting Comey’s remarks closing Clinton email investigation, though Clinton had not yet been interviewed.
April 12, 2016:”Ukrainian parliament member Olga Bielkova and a colleague meet” with Sen. John McCain associate David Kramer with the McCain Institute. Bielkova also meets with Liz Zentos of Obama’s National Security Council, and State Department official Michael Kimmage.
April 26, 2016: Investigative reporter Michael Isikoff publishes story on Yahoo News about Paul Manafort’s business dealings with a Russian oligarch.
April 27, 2016: The BBC publishes an article titled, “Why Russians Love Donald Trump.”
April 28, 2016: Ukrainian-American Democratic operative Chalupa is invited to discuss her research about Paul Manafort with 68 investigative journalists from Ukraine at Library of Congress for Open World Leadership Center, a U.S. congressional agency. Chalupa invites investigative reporter Michael Isikoff to “connect(s) him to the Ukrainians.”
After the event, reporter Isikoff accompanies Chalupa to Ukrainian embassy reception.
May 3, 2016: Ukrainian-American Democratic operative Chalupa emails Democratic National Committee (DNC) that she’ll share sensitive info about Paul Manafort “offline” including “a big Trump component that will hit in next few weeks.”
May 4, 2016: Trump locks up Republican nomination.
May 19, 2016: Paul Manafort is named Trump campaign chair.
May 23, 2016: FBI probe into Virginia governor and Clinton ally Terry McAuliffe becomes public. (McAuliffe is ultimately not charged with a crime.)
Justice Department Inspector General confirms it’s looking into FBI’s Andrew McCabe for alleged conflicts of interest in handling of Clinton and Gov. McAuliffe probes in light of McAuliffe directing campaign donations to McCabe’s wife.
FBI officials Lisa Page and Peter Strzok, who are reportedly having an illicit affair, text each other that Trump’s ascension in the campaign will bring “pressure to finish” Clinton probe.
Nellie Ohr, wife of Justice Dept. associate deputy attorney general Bruce Ohr and former CIA worker, goes on the payroll of Fusion GPS and assists with anti-Trump political opposition research. Her husband, Bruce, reportedly fails to disclose her specific employer and work in his Justice Dept. conflict of interest disclosures.
Nellie Ohr applies for a ham radio license.
June 2016: Fusion GPS’ Glenn Simpson “hires Yemen-born ex-British spy Christopher Steele for anti-Trump political opposition research project.”Steele uses info from Russian sources “close to Putin” to compile unverified “dossier” later provided to reporters and FBI, which the FBI uses to obtain secret wiretap.
The Guardian and Heat Street report that the FBI applied for a FISA warrant in June 2016 to “monitor four members of the Trump team suspected of irregular contacts with Russian officials” but that the “initial request was denied.”
June 7, 2016: Hillary Clinton locks up the Democrat nomination.
June 9, 2016: Meeting in Trump Tower includes Donald Trump Jr., Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner with Russian lawyer who said he has political opposition research on Clinton. (No research was ultimately provided.) According to CNN, the FBI has not yet restarted a wiretap against Manafort but will soon do so.
June 10, 2016: Democratic National Committee (DNC) tells employees that its computer system has been hacked. DNC blames Russia but refuses to let FBI examine its systems.
June 15, 2016: “Guccifer 2.0” publishes first hacked document from Clinton campaign chair John Podesta.
June 17, 2016: Washington Post publishes front page story linking Trump to Russia: “Inside Trump’s Financial Ties to Russia and His Unusual Flattery of Vladimir Putin.”
June 20, 2016: Christopher Steele proposes taking some of Fusion GPS’ research about Trump to FBI.
June 22, 2016: WikiLeaks begins publishing embarrassing, hacked emails from Clinton campaign and Democratic National Committee.
June 27, 2016: Attorney General Loretta Lynch meets privately with former President Bill Clinton on an airport tarmac in Phoenix, Arizona.
Late June 2016: DCLeaks website begins publishing Democratic National Committee emails.
The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine signs evidence-sharing agreement with FBI and will later publicly release a “ledger” implicating Paul Manafort in allegedly improper payments.
June 30, 2016: FBI circulates internal draft of public remarks for FBI Director Comey to announce closing of Clinton investigation. It refers to Mrs. Clinton’s “extensive” use of her personal email, including “from the territory of sophisticated adversaries,” and a July 1, 2012 email to President Obama from Russia. The draft concludes it’s possible that hostile actors gained access to Clinton’s email account.
Comey’s remarks are revised to replace reference to “the President” with the phrase: “another senior government official.” (That reference, too, is removed from the final draft.)
Attorney General Lynch tells FBI she plans to publicly announce that she’ll accept whatever recommendation FBI Director Comey makes regarding charges against Clinton.
July 2016: Ukraine minister of internal affairs Arsen Avakov attacks Trump and Trump campaign adviser Paul Manafort on Twitter and Facebook, calling Trump “an even bigger danger to the US than terrorism.”
Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk writes on Facebook that Trump has “challenged the very values of the free world.”
Carter Page travels to Russia to give a university commencement address. (Fusion GPS political opposition research would later quote Russian sources as saying Page met with Russian officials, which Page denies under oath and is not proven.)
One-time CIA operative Stefan Halper reportedly begins meetings with Trump advisers Carter Page and George Papadopoulos, secretly gathering information for the FBI. These contacts begin “prior to the date FBI Director Comey later claimed the Russian investigation began.”
July 1, 2016: Under fire for meeting with former President Clinton amid the probe into his wife, Attorney General Lynch publicly states she’ll “accept whatever FBI Director Comey recommends” without interfering.
FBI official Lisa Page texts her boyfriend, FBI official Peter Strzok, sarcastically commenting that Lynch’s proclamation is “a real profile in courage, since she knows no charges will be brought.”
Ex-British spy Christopher Steele writes Justice Department official Bruce Ohr that he wants to discuss “our favourite business tycoon!” (apparently referencing Trump.)
July 2, 2016: FBI official Peter Strzok and other agents interview Clinton. They don’t record the interview. Two potential subjects of the investigation, Cheryl Mills and Heather Samuelson, are allowed to attend as Clinton’s lawyers.
July 5, 2016: FBI Director Comey recommends no charges against Clinton, though he concludes she’s been extremely careless in mishandling of classified information. Comey claims he hasn’t coordinated or reviewed his statement in any way with Attorney General Lynch’s Justice Department or other government branches. “They do not know what I am about to say,” says Comey.
Fusion GPS’ Steele, an ex-British spy, approaches FBI at an office in Rome with allegations against Trump, according to Congressional investigators. Justice Dept. official Bruce Ohr schedules a Skype conference call with Steele.
Days after closing Clinton case, FBI official Peter Strzok signs document opening FBI probe into Trump-Russia collusion.
July 10, 2016: Democratic National Committee (DNC) aide Seth Rich, reportedly a Bernie Sanders supporter, is shot twice in the back and killed. Police suspect a bungled robbery attempt, though nothing was apparently stolen. Conspiracy theorists speculate that Rich “not the Russians” had stolen DNC emails after he learned the DNC was unfairly favoring Clinton. The murder remains unsolved.
July 2016: Trump adviser Carter Page makes a business trip to Russia.
FISC (Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court) rejects FBI request to wiretap Page.
Obama national security adviser Susan Rice begins to show increased interest in National Security Agency (NSA) intelligence material including “unmasked Americans” identities, according to news reports referring to White House logs.
July 18-21, 2016: Republican National Convention
Late July 2016: FBI agent Peter Strzok opens counterintelligence investigation based on Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos.
Democratic operative and Ukrainian-American Chalupa leaves the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to work full-time on her research into Manafort, Trump and Russia; and provides off-the-record guidance to “a lot of journalists.”
July 22, 2016: WikiLeaks begins publishing hacked Democratic National Committee emails. WikiLeaks’ Julian Assange denies the email source is Russian.
July 25-28, 2016: Democratic National Convention
July 30, 2016: Justice Dept. official Bruce Ohr meets with ex-British spy Christopher Steele at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington. Ohr brings his wife, Nellie, who — like Steele — works at Fusion GPS on the Trump-Russia oppo research project. Ohr calls FBI Deputy Director McCabe.
July 31, 2016: FBI’s Peter Strzok formally begins counterintelligence investigation regarding Russia and Trump. It’s dubbed “Crossfire Hurricane.”
Aug. 3, 2016: Ohr reportedly meets with McCabe and FBI lawyer Lisa Page to discuss Russia-Trump collusion allegations relayed by ex-British spy Steele. Ohr will later testify to Congress that he considered Steele’s information uncorroborated hearsay and that he told FBI agents Steele appeared motivated by a “desperate” desire to keep Trump from becoming president.
Aug. 4, 2016: Ukrainian ambassador to U.S. writes op-ed against Trump.
Aug. 8, 2016: FBI attorney Lisa Page texts her lover, FBI’s head of Counterespionage Peter Strzok,”[Trump is] not ever going to become president, right? Right?!” Strzok replies,”No. No he won’t. We’ll stop it.”
Aug. 14, 2016: New York Times breaks story about cash payments made a decade ago to Paul Manafort by pro-Russia interests in Ukraine. The ledger was released and publicized by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine.
Aug. 15, 2016: CNN reports the FBI is conducting an inquiry into Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort’s payments from pro-Russia interests in Ukraine in 2007 and 2009.
After a meeting discussing the election in FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe’s office, FBI’s Counterespionage Chief Peter Strzok texts FBI attorney Lisa Page referring to the possibility of Trump getting elected. “We can’t take that risk,” he writes. And they speak of needing an “insurance policy.”
Aug. 19, 2016: Paul Manafort resigns as Trump campaign chairman.
Ukrainian parliament member Sergii Leshchenko holds news conference to draw attention to Paul Manafort and Trump’s “pro-Russia” ties.
Aug. 22, 2016: Justice Dept. official Bruce Ohr meets with Fusion GPS’ Glenn Simpson who identifies several “possible intermediaries” between the Trump campaign and Russia.
Late August 2016:
Reportedly working for the FBI, one-time CIA operative Professor Halper meets with Trump campaign co-chair Sam Clovis offering his services as a foreign-policy adviser, according to The Washington Post. Halper would later offer to hire Carter Page.
Approx. Aug. 2016: FBI initiates a new wiretap against ex-Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort, according to CNN, which extends at least through early 2017.
Sept. 2016: Fusion GPS’s Steele becomes FBI source and uses associate deputy attorney general Bruce Ohr as point of contact. Steele tells Ohr that he’s “desperate that Donald Trump not get elected.”
President Obama warns Russia not to interfere in the U.S. election
Sept. 2, 2016: FBI officials Lisa Page and Peter Strzok text that “[President Obama] wants to know everything we’re doing.”
Sept. 13, 2016: The nonprofit First Draft, funded by Google, whose parent company is run by major Hillary Clinton supporter and donor Eric Schmidt, announces initiative to tackle “fake news.” It appears to be the first use of the phrase in its modern context.
Sept. 15, 2016: Clinton computer manager Paul Combetta appears before House Oversight Committee but refuses to answer questions, invoking his Fifth Amendment rights.
Sept. 19, 2016: At UN General Assembly meeting, Ukrainian President Poroshenko meets with Hillary Clinton.
Mid-to-late Sept. 2016: Fusion GPS’s Christopher Steele’s FBI contact tells him the agency wants to see his opposition research “right away” and offers to pay him $50,000, according to the New York Times, for solid corroboration of his salacious, unverified claims. Steele flies to Rome, Italy to meet with FBI and provide a “full briefing.”
Sept. 22, 2016: Clinton computer aide Brian Pagliano is held in contempt of Congress for refusing to comply with subpoena.
Sept. 23, 2016: It’s revealed that Justice Department has granted five Clinton officials immunity from prosecution: former chief of staff Cheryl Mills, State Department staffers John Bentel and Heather Samuelson, and Clinton computer workers Paul Combetta and Brian Pagliano.
Yahoo News publishes report by Michael Isikoff about Carter Page’s July 2016 trip to Moscow. (The article is apparently based on leaked info from Fusion GPS Steele anti-Trump “dossier” political opposition research.)
Sept. 25, 2016: Trump associate Carter Page writes letter to FBI Comey objecting to the so-called “witch hunt” involving him.
Sept. 26, 2016: Obama administration asks secretive Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) court to allow National Counter Terrorism Center to access sensitive, “unmasked” intel on Americans acquired by FBI and NSA. (The Court later approves the request.)
FBI head of counterespionage Peter Strzok emails his mistress FBI attorney Lisa Page that Carter Page’s letter (dated the day before) “…provides us a pretext to interview.”
Sept. 27, 2016: Justice Department Assistant Attorney General of National Security Division John Carlin announces he’s stepping down. He was former chief of staff and senior counsel to former FBI director Robert Mueller.
End of Sept. 2016: Fusion GPS’ Glenn Simpson and Christopher Steele meet with reporters, including New York Times, Washington Post, Yahoo News, the New Yorker and CNN or ABC. One meeting is at office of Democratic National Committee general counsel.
Early October 2016: Fusion GPS’ Christopher Steele, the Yemen-born author of anti-Trump “dossier,” meets in New York with David Corn, Washington-bureau chief of Mother Jones.
According to The Guardian, the FBI submits a more narrowly focused FISA wiretap request to replace one turned down in June to monitor four Trump associates.
Oct. 3, 2016: FBI seizes computers belonging to Anthony Weiner, who is accused of sexually texting an underage girl. Weiner is married to top Hillary Clinton aide Huma Abedin. FBI learns there are Clinton emails on Weiner’s laptop but waits several weeks before notifying Congress and reopening investigation.
Oct. 4, 2016: FBI Director Comey replaces head of Counterintelligence Division, New York Field Office with Charles McGonigal.
Oct. 7, 2016: Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and Department of Homeland Security issue statement saying Russian government is responsible for hacking Democrat emails to disrupt 2016 election.
Oct. 13, 2016: President Obama gives a speech in support of the crackdown on “fake news” by stating that somebody needs to step in and “curate” information in the “wild, wild West media environment.”
Oct. 14, 2016: FBI head of counterespionage Peter Strzok emails his mistress FBI attorney Lisa Page discussing talking points to convince FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe to persuade a high-ranking Dept. of Justice official to sign a warrant to wiretap Trump associate Carter Page. The email subject line is “Crossfire FISA.” “Crossfire Hurricane” was one of the code names for four separate investigations the FBI conducted related to Russia matters in the 2016 election.
“At a minimum, that keeps the hurry the F up pressure on him,” Strzok emailed Lisa Page less than four weeks before Election Day.
Mid-Oct. 2016: Fusion GPS’ Steele again briefs reporters about Trump political opposition research. The reporters are from the New York Times, the Washington Post, and Yahoo News.
Oct. 16, 2016: Mary McCord is named Assistant Attorney General for Justice Department National Security Division.
Oct. 18, 2016: President Obama advises Trump to “stop whining” after Trump tweeted the election could be rigged. “There is no serious person out there who would suggest somehow that you could even you could even rig America’s elections,” said Obama. He also calls Trump’s “flattery” of Russian president Putin “unprecedented.”
In FBI emails, head of counterespionage Peter Strzok and his mistress FBI lawyer Lisa Page discuss rushing approval for a FISA warrant for a Russia-related investigation code-named “Dragon.”
Oct. 19, 2016: Ex-British spy Christopher Steele writes his last memo for anti-Trump “dossier” political opposition research provided to FBI. The FBI reportedly authorizes payment to Steele. Fusion GPS has reportedly paid him $160,000.
Approx. Oct. 21, 2016: For the second time in several months, Justice Department and FBI apply to wiretap former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page. FBI Director James Comey and Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates sign the application. This time, the request is approved based on new FBI “evidence” including parts of Fusion GPS’ “Steele dossier” and Michael Isikoff Yahoo article. The FBI doesn’t tell the court that Trump’s political opponent, the Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee, funded the “evidence.”
Oct. 24, 2016: Benjamin Wittes, confidant of FBI Director James Comey and editor-in-chief of the blog Lawfare, writes of the need for an “insurance policy” in case Trump wins. It’s the same phrase FBI officials Lisa Page and Peter Strzok had used when discussing the possibility of a Trump win.
Obama intel officials orally inform Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court of an earlier Inspector General review uncovering their “significant noncompliance” in following proper “702” procedures safeguarding the National Security Agency (NSA) intelligence database with sensitive info on US citizens.
Late Oct. 2016: Fusion GPS’ Steele again briefs reporter from Mother Jones by Skype about Trump political opposition research.
Oct. 26, 2016: Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court holds hearing with Obama intel officials over their “702” surveillance violations. The judge criticizes NSA for “institutional lack of candor” and states “this is a very serious Fourth Amendment issue.”
Oct. 28, 2016: FBI Director Comey notifies Congress that he’s reopening Clinton probe due to Clinton emails found on Anthony Wiener laptop several weeks earlier.
Oct. 30, 2016: Mother Jones writer David Corn is first to report on the anti-Trump “dossier,” quoting unidentified former spy, presumed to be Christopher Steele. FBI general counsel James Baker had reportedly been in touch with Corn but Corn later denies Baker was the leaker.
FBI terminates its relationship with Steele because Steele had leaked his FBI involvement in Mother Jones article.
Steele reportedly maintains backchannel contact with Justice Dept. through Deputy Associate Attorney General Bruce Ohr.
Oct. 31, 2016: New York Times reports FBI is investigating Trump and found no illicit connections to Russia.
Nov. 1, 2016: FBI concludes ex-British spy Christopher Steele, who compiled anti-Trump “dossier” using Russian sources, leaked to press and is not suitable for use as a confidential source. However, Steele continues to “help,” according to Jan. 31, 2017 texts to Justice Dept. official Bruce Ohr.
Nov. 3, 2016: FBI Attorney Lisa Page texts FBI’s Peter Strzok about her concerns that Clinton might lose and Trump would become president: “The [New York Times] probability numbers are dropping every day. I’m scared for our organization.”
Nov. 6, 2016: FBI Director Comey tells Congress that Clinton emails on Anthony Weiner computer do not change earlier conclusion: she should not be charged.
Nov. 8, 2016: Trump is elected president.
Obama National Security Adviser Susan Rice’s interest in NSA materials accelerates, according to later news reports.
Associate Deputy Attorney General Bruce Ohr meets with Fusion GPS co-founder Glenn Simpson shortly after election.
The FBI interviews Ohr about his ongoing contacts with Fusion GPS.
Nov. 9, 2016: An unnamed FBI attorney (later quoted in Dept. of Justice Inspector General probe) texts another FBI employee, “I’m just devastated…I just can’t imagine the systematic disassembly of the progress we made over the last 8 years. ACA is gone. Who knows if the rhetoric about deporting people, walls, and crap is true. I honestly feel like there is going to be a lot more gun issues, too, the crazies won finally. This is the tea party on steroids. And the GOP is going to be lost, they have to deal with an incumbent in 4 years. We have to fight this again. Also Pence is stupid….Plus, my god damned name is all over the legal documents investigating [Trump’s] staff.”
Nov. 10, 2016: Emails imply top FBI officials, including Peter Strzok, Andrew McCabe and Bill Priestap engaged in a new mission to “scrub” or research lists of associates of President-elect Trump, looking for potential “derogatory” information.
President Obama meets with President-elect Trump in the White House and reportedly advises Trump not to hire Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn.
Nov. 2016: National Security Agency Mike Rogers meets with president-elect Trump and is criticized for “not telling the Obama administration.”
Nov. 17, 2016: Trump moves his Friday presidential team meetings out of Trump Tower.
Nov. 18, 2016: Trump names Flynn his national security adviser. Over the next few weeks, Flynn communicates with numerous international leaders.
Nov. 18-20, 2016: Sen. John McCain and his longtime adviser, David Kramer–an ex-U.S. State Dept. official–attend a security conference in Halifax, Nova Scotia where former UK ambassador to Russia Sir Andrew Wood tells them about the Fusion GPS anti-Trump dossier. (Kramer is affiliated with the anti-Russia “Ukraine Today” media organization). They discuss confirming the info has reached top levels of FBI for action.
Nov. 21, 2016: Justice Dept. official Bruce Ohr, works for Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates, meets with FBI officials including Peter Strzok, Strzok’s girlfriend–FBI attorney Lisa Page, and another agent. Ohr’s notes indicate the FBI “may go back to [ex-British spy] Chris Steele” of Fusion GPS just 20 days after dismissing him.
Nov. 28, 2016: Sen. McCain associate David Kramer flies to London to meet Christopher Steele for a briefing on the anti-Trump research. Afterward, Fusion GPS’ Glenn Simpson gives Sen. McCain a copy of the “dossier.” Steele also passes anti-Trump info to top UK government official in charge of national security. Sen. McCain soon arranges a meeting with FBI Director Comey.
Late Nov. 2016: Justice Dept. official Bruce Ohr officially tells FBI about his contacts with Fusion GPS’ Christopher Steele and about Ohr’s wife’s contract work for Fusion GPS.
Nov. 30, 2016: UN Ambassador Samantha Power makes request to unmask the name of Trump National Security Adviser Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, who was “incidentally” captured by intel surveillance.
Dec. 2016: Text messages between FBI officials Strzok and Page are later said to be “lost” due to a technical glitch beginning at this point.
Dec. 2, 2016: UN Ambassador Samantha Power and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper request to unmask the name of Trump National Security Adviser Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, who was “incidentally” captured by intel surveillance.
Dec. 6, 2016: Two more Obama administration officials request to unmask the name of Flynn.
Dec. 7, 2016: Power makes another Flynn unmasking request.
Dec. 8 or 9, 2016: Sen. John McCain meets with FBI Director Comey at FBI headquarters and hands over Fusion GPS anti-Trump research, elevating the FBI’s investigation into the matter. The FBI compiles a classified two-page summary and attaches it to intel briefing note on Russian cyber-interference in election for President Obama.
Hillary Clinton makes a public appearance denouncing “fake news.”
Hillary Clinton and Democratic operative David Brock of Media Matters announces he’s leaving board of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), one of his many propaganda and liberal advocacy groups, to focus on “fake news” effort.
Brock later claims credit, privately to donors, for convincing Facebook to crack down on conservative fake news.
Dec. 14, 2017: There are 10 more requests to unmask Flynn’s name in intelligence, including two by Power, CIA Director Brennan, and six officials from the Treasury Dept.
Dec. 15, 2016: Obama intel officials “incidentally” spy on Trump officials meeting with the United Arab Emirates crown prince in Trump Tower. This is taken to mean the government was wiretapping the prince and “happened to capture” Trump officials communicating with him at Trump Tower. Identities of Americans accidentally captured in such surveillance are strictly protected or “masked” inside intel agencies for constitutional privacy reasons.
Obama National Security Adviser Susan Rice secretly “unmasks” names of the Trump officials, officially revealing their identities. They reportedly include: Steve Bannon, Jared Kushner and Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn.
Director of National Intelligence Clapper expands rules to allow the National Security Agency (NSA) to widely disseminate classified surveillance material within the government. The same day, 17 Obama officials request the unmasking of Lt. Gen. Flynn in intelligence.
Dec. 16, 2016: Five more Obama officials request unmasking of intelligence materials regarding Lt. Gen. Flynn.
Dec. 23, 2016: Power request another Flynn unmasking.
Dec. 28, 2016:
Lt. Gen. Flynn speaks with Russia ambassador.
Clapper and the U.S. Ambassador to Turkey request Flynn unmasking.
Dec. 29, 2016: President Obama imposes sanctions against Russia for its alleged election interference.
President-elect Trump national security adviser Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn speaks with Russian Ambassador to U.S. Sergey Kislyak. The calls are wiretapped by U.S. intelligence and later leaked to the press.
State Department releases 2,800 work-related emails from Huma Abedin, a top aide to Hillary Clinton, found by FBI on laptop computer of Abedin’s husband, former Rep. Anthony Weiner.
2017
Jan. 2017: According to CNN: a wiretap reportedly continues against former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort, including times he speaks to Trump, meaning U.S. intel officials could have “accidentally” captured Trump’s communications.
Justice Dept. Inspector General confirms it’s investigating several aspects of FBI and Justice Department actions during Clinton probe.
Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testifies to Congress that Russia interfered in U.S. elections by spreading fake news on social media.
Justice Dept. official Peter Kadzik, who “tipped off” Hillary Clinton campaign regarding Congressional questions about Clinton’s email, leaves government work for private practice.
The FBI interviews a main source of Christopher Steele’s “dossier” and learns the information was merely bar room gossip and rumor never meant to be taken as fact or submitted to the FBI and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court to wiretap Carter Page. (The FBI does not notify the court and applies for, and receives, another wiretap against Page).
Early Jan. 2017: FBI renews wiretap against Carter Page. FBI Director James Comey and Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates again sign the application.
Jan. 3, 2017: Obama Attorney General Lynch signs rules Director of National Intelligence Clapper expanded Dec. 15 allowing the National Security Agency (NSA) to widely disseminate surveillance within the government.
Jan. 5, 2017: Intelligence Community leadership including FBI Director Comey, Yates, CIA Director John Brennan and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, provides classified briefing to President Obama, Vice President Biden and National Security Adviser Susan Rice on alleged Russia hacking during 2016 campaign, according to notes later written by national security adviser Susan Rice.
After briefing, according notes made later by Rice, President Obama convenes Oval Office meeting with her, FBI Director Comey, Vice President Biden and Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates. The “Steele dossier” is reportedly discussed. Also reportedly discussed: Trump National Security Adviser Flynn’s talks with Russia’s ambassador.
Jan. 6, 2017: FBI Director Comey and other Intel leaders meet with President-Elect Trump and his national security team at Trump Tower in New York to brief them on alleged Russian efforts to interfere in the election.
Later, Obama national security adviser Susan Rice would write herself an email stating that President Obama suggested they hold back on providing Trump officials with certain info for national security reasons.
After Trump team briefing, FBI Director Comey meets alone with Trump to “brief him” on Fusion GPS Steele allegations “to alert the incoming President to the existence of this material,” even though it was salacious and unverified. Comey later says Director of National Intelligence Clapper asked him (Comey) to do the briefing personally.
Jan. 7, 2017: Clapper and two other Obama administration officials request Flynn unmasking.
Jan. 10, 2017: The 35-page Fusion GPS anti-Trump “dossier” is leaked to the media and published. It reveals that sources of the unverified info are Russians close to President Putin.
Email written by FBI head of counterespionage Peter Strzok indicates the FBI has been given the anti-Trump “dossier” by at least 3 different anti-Trump sources.
A CIA official makes a Flynn unmasking request.
Jan. 11, 2017: Power makes another Flynn unmasking request.
Jan. 12, 2017: Obama administration finalizes new rules allowing NSA to spread “certain intel to” other U.S. intel agencies without normal privacy protections.
Justice Dept. inspector general announces review of alleged misconduct by FBI Director Comey and other matters related to FBI’s Clinton probe as well as FBI leaks.
Vice President Joe Biden and the Treasury Secretary request the unmasking of Flynn in intelligence communications.
Someone leaks to to David Ignatius of the Washington Post that Trump National Security Adviser Flynn had called Russia’s ambassador. “What did Flynn say, and did it undercut the US sanctions?” asked Ignatius in the article.
Jan. 13, 2017: Senate Intelligence Committee opens investigation into Russia and U.S. political campaign officials.
Jan. 15, 2017: After leaks about Flynn’s call with Russia’s ambassador, Vice President-elect Mike Pence tells the press that Flynn did not discuss U.S. sanctions on the call.
Jan. 20, 2017: Trump becomes president.
Fifteen minutes after Trump becomes president, former National Security Adviser Susan Rice emails memo to herself purporting to summarize the Jan. 5 Oval Office meeting with President Obama and other top officials. She states that Obama instructed the group to investigate “by the book” and asked them to be mindful whether there were certain things that “could not be fully shared with the incoming administration.”
Jan. 22, 2017: Intel info leaks to Wall Street Journal which reports “US counterintelligence agents have investigated communications” between Trump aide Gen. Michael Flynn and Russia ambassador to the U.S. Kislyak to determine if any laws were violated.
Jan. 23, 2017: Leak to Washington Post falsely claims Trump National Security Adviser Flynn is not the subject of an investigation.
Jan. 24, 2017: Acting Attorney General Sally Yates sends two FBI agents, including Peter Strzok, to the White House to question Gen. Flynn. FBI Director Comey later takes credit for “sending a couple of guys” to interview Flynn, circumventing normal processes.
Notes kept hidden until May 2020 show FBI officials discussing whether the goal of the meeting with Flynn was to “get him to lie” so that he would be fired or prosecuted.
Jan. 26, 2017: Acting Attorney General Sally Yates and a high-ranking colleague go to White House to tell counsel Don McGahn that Flynn had lied to Pence about the content of his talks with Russian ambassador and “the underlying conduct that Gen. Flynn had engaged in was problematic in and of itself.”
Jan. 27, 2017: Acting Attorney General Sally Yates again visits the White House.
Jan. 31, 2017: President Trump fires Acting Attorney General Sally Yates after she refuses to enforce his temporary travel ban on Muslims coming into U.S. from certain countries.
Ex-British spy Christopher Steele texts Deputy Attorney General Bruce Ohr who worked for Yates: “B, doubtless a sad and crazy day for you re- SY.”
Dana Boente becomes Acting Attorney General. (It’s later revealed that Boente signed at least one wiretap application against former Trump adviser Carter Page.)
Feb. 2, 2017: It’s reported that five men employed by House of Representatives Democrats, including leader Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Florida), are under criminal investigation for allegedly “accessing House IT systems without lawmakers’ knowledge.” Suspects include three Awan brothers “who managed office information technology for members of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and other lawmakers.”
Feb. 3, 2017: A Russian tech mogul named in the Steele “dossier” files defamation lawsuits against BuzzFeed in the U.S. and Christopher Steele in the U.K. over the dossier’s claims he interfered in U.S. elections.
Feb. 8, 2017: Jeff Sessions becomes Attorney General and Dana Boente moves to Deputy Attorney General.
Feb. 9, 2017: News of FBI wiretaps capturing Trump national security adviser Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn speaking with Russia’s ambassador is leaked to the press. New York Times and Washington Post report Flynn discussed U.S. sanctions, despite his earlier denials. The Post also reports the FBI “found nothing illicit” in the talks. The Post headline in an article by Greg Miller, Adam Entous and Ellen Nakashima reads, “National Security Adviser Flynn Discussed Sanctions with Russian Ambassador, Despite Denials, Officials Say.”
Feb. 13, 2017: Washington Post reports Justice Dept. has opened a “Logan Act” violation investigation against Trump national security adviser Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn.
Feb. 14, 2017: New York Times reports that FBI had told Obama officials there was no “quid pro quo” (promise of a deal in exchange for some action) discussed between Gen. Flynn and Russian ambassador Kislyak.
Gen. Flynn resigns, allegedly acknowledging he misled vice president Mike Pence about the content of his discussions with Russia.
Comey says that, in a meeting, Trump states, “I hope you can see your way clear to letting this go, to letting Flynn go. He is a good guy. I hope you can let this go.” Comey says he replies “he is a good guy.” Trump later takes issue with Comey’s characterization of the meeting.
Feb. 15, 2017: NPR reports on “official transcripts of Flynn’s calls” (saying they show no wrongdoing but that doesn’t rule out illegal activity).
Feb. 17, 2017: Washington Post reports that “Flynn told FBI he did not discuss sanctions” with Russia ambassador and that “Lying to the FBI is a felony offense.”
Feb. 24, 2017: FBI interviews Flynn, according to later testimony from Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates.
March 1, 2017: Washington Post reports Attorney General Jeff Sessions has met with Russian ambassador twice in the recent past (as did many Democrat and Republican officials). His critics say that contradicts his earlier testimony to Congress. The article by Adam Entous, Ellen Nakashima and Greg Miller raises the idea of a special counsel to investigate.
March 2017: FBI Director James Comey gives private briefings to members of Congress and reportedly says he does not believe Gen. Flynn lied to FBI.
House Intelligence Committee requests list of unmasking requests Obama officials made. The intel agencies do not provide the information, prompting a June 1 subpoena.
March 2, 2017: Attorney General Jeff Sessions recuses himself from Russia-linked investigations.
Rod Rosenstein, the Deputy Attorney General, becomes Acting Attorney General for Russia Probe. It’s later revealed that Rosenstein singed at least one wiretap application against former Trump adviser Carter Page.
March 4, 2017: President Trump tweets: “Is it legal for a sitting President to be ‘wire tapping’ a race for president prior to an election? Turned down by court earlier. A NEW LOW!” and “How low has President Obama gone to tapp my phones during the very sacred election process. This is Nixon/Watergate. Bad (or sick) guy!”
March 10, 2017: Former Congressman Dennis Kucinich, a Democrat, steps forward to support Trump’s wiretapping claim, revealing that the Obama administration intel officials recorded his own communications with a Libyan official in Spring 2011.
March 14, 2017: FBI Attorney Lisa Page texts FBI official Peter Strzok: “Finally two pages away from finishing [All the President’s Men]. Did you know the president resigns in the end?!” Strzok replies, “What?!?! God, that we should be so lucky. [smiley face emoji]”
March 20, 2017: FBI Director Comey tells House Intelligence Committee he has “no information that supports” the President’s tweets about alleged wiretapping directed at him by the prior administration. “We have looked carefully inside the FBI,” Comey says. “(T)he answer is the same for the Department of Justice and all its components.”
FBI Director Comey tells Congress there is “salacious and unverified” material in the Fusion GPS dossier used by FBI, in part, to obtain Carter Page wiretap. (Under FBI “Woods Procedures,” only facts carefully verified by the FBI are allowed to be presented to court to obtain wiretaps.)
March 22, 2017: Chairman of House Intelligence Committee Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) publicly announces he’s seen evidence of Trump associates being “incidentally” surveilled by Obama intel officials; and their names being “unmasked” and illegally leaked. Nunes briefs President Trump and holds a news conference. He’s criticized for doing so. An ethics investigation is opened into his actions but later clears him of wrongdoing.
In an interview on PBS, former Obama National Security Adviser Susan Rice responds to Nunes allegations by stating: “I know nothing about this, I really don’t know to what Chairman Nunes was referring.” (She later acknowledges unmasking names of Trump associates.)
March 2017: Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) writes Justice Dept. accusing Fusion GPS of acting as an agent for Russia “without properly registering” due to its pro-Russia effort to kill a law allowing sanctions against foreign human rights violators. Fusion GPS denies the allegations.
March 24, 2017: Fusion GPS declines to answer Sen. Grassley’s questions or document requests.
March 27, 2017: Former Deputy Asst. Secretary of Defense Evelyn Farkas admits she encouraged Obama and Congressional officials to “get as much information as they can” about Russia and Trump officials before inauguration. “That’s why you have the leaking,” she told MSNBC.
Early April, 2017: A third FBI wiretap on former Trump campaign aide Carter Page is approved. Again, FBI Director James Comey, and acting attorney general Dana Boente sign the application. Trump officials including Mike Pompeo at the CIA are now leading the intel agencies during the wiretap.
April 3, 2017: Multiple news reports state that Obama National Security Adviser Susan Rice had requested and reviewed “unmasked” intelligence on Trump associates whose information was “incidentally” collected by intel agencies.
April 4, 2017: Obama former National Security Adviser Rice admits, in an interview, that she asked to reveal names of U.S. citizens previously masked in intel reports. She says her motivations were not political. When asked if she leaked names, Rice states, “I leaked nothing to nobody.”
April 6, 2017: House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes recuses himself from Russia part of his committee’s investigation.
April 11, 2017: FBI Director Comey appoints Stephen Laycock as special agent in charge of Counterintelligence Division for Washington Field Office.
Washington Post reports FBI secretly obtained wiretap against Trump campaign associate Carter Page last summer. (Later, it’s revealed the summer wiretap had been turned down, but a subsequent application was approved in October.)
April 20, 2017: Acting Assistant Attorney General Mary McCord resigns as acting head of Justice Dept. National Security Division. She’d led probes of Russia interference in election and Trump-Russia ties.
April 28, 2017: Dana Boente is appointed acting assistant attorney general for national security division to replace Mary McCord. (Boente has signed one of the questioned wiretap applications for Carter Page.)
National Security Agency (NSA) submits remedies for its egregious surveillance violations (revealed last October) to Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court promising to “no longer collect certain internet communications that merely mention a foreign intelligence target.” The NSA also begins deleting collected data on U.S. citizens it had been storing.
May 3, 2017: FBI Director Comey testifies he’s “mildly nauseous” at the idea he might have affected election with the 11th hour Clinton email notifications to Congress.
Comey also testifies he’s “never” been an anonymous news source on “matters relating to” investigating the Trump campaign.
Obama’s former national security adviser Susan Rice declines Republican Congressional request to testify at a hearing about unmaskings and surveillance.
May 8, 2017: Former acting Attorney General Sally Yates and former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testify to Congress. They admit having reviewed “classified documents in which Mr. Trump, his associates or members of Congress had been unmasked,” and possibly discussing it with others under the Obama administration.
May 9, 2017: President Trump fires FBI Director James Comey. Andrew McCabe becomes acting FBI Director.
May 12, 2017: Benjamin Wittes, confidant of ex-FBI Director James Comey and editor in chief of Lawfare, contacts New York Times reporter Mike Schmidt to leak conversations he’d had with Comey as FBI Director that are critical of President Trump.
May 16, 2017: New York Times publishes leaked account of FBI memoranda recorded by former FBI Director James Comey. Comey later acknowledges engineering the leak of the FBI material through his friend, Columbia Law School professor Daniel Richman, to spur appointment of special counsel to investigate President Trump.
Trump reportedly interviews, but passes over, former FBI Director Robert Mueller for position of FBI Director.
May 17, 2017: Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appoints Robert Mueller as Special Counsel, Russia-Trump probe. Mueller and former FBI Director Comey are friends and worked closely together in previous Justice Dept. and FBI positions.
The gap of missing text messages between FBI officials Peter Strzok and Lisa Page ends. The couple is soon assigned to the Mueller team investigating Trump.
May 19, 2017: Anthony Wiener, former Congressman and husband of Hillary Clinton confidant Huma Abedin, turns himself in to FBI in case of underage sexting; his third major kerfuffle over sexting in six years.
May 22, 2017: FBI Counterespionage Chief Peter Strzok texts FBI Attorney Lisa Page about whether Strzok should join Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation of Trump-Russia collusion. Strzok spoke of “unfinished business” that he “unleashed” with the Clinton classified email probe and stated: “Now I need to fix it and finish it.” He also referred to the Special Counsel probe, which hadn’t yet begun in earnest, as an “investigation leading to impeachment.” But he also stated he had a “gut sense and concern there’s no big there there.”
June 1, 2017: House Intelligence Committee issues 7 subpoenas, including for information related to unmaskings requested by ex-Obama officials national security adviser Susan Rice, former CIA Director John Brennan, and former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Samantha Power.
June 8, 2017: Former FBI Director James Comey admits having engineered leak of his own memo to New York Times to spur appointment of a special counsel to investigate President Trump.
June 20, 2017: Acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe names Philip Celestini as Special Agent in Charge of the Intelligence Division, Washington Field Office.
Late June, 2017: FBI renews wiretap against Carter Page for the fourth and final time that we know of. It lasts through late Sept. 2017. (Page is never ultimately charged with a crime.) FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein sign the renewal application.
Late July, 2017: FBI reportedly searches Paul Manafort’s Alexandria, Virginia home.
Summer 2017: FBI lawyer Lisa Page is reassigned from Mueller investigation. Her boyfriend, FBI official Peter Strzok is removed from Mueller investigation after the Inspector General discovers compromising texts between Strzok and Page. Congress is not notified of the developments.
Aug. 2, 2017: Christopher Wray is named FBI Director.
August 2017: Ex-FBI Director Comey signs a book deal for a reported $2 million.
Sept. 13, 2017: Under questioning from Congress, Obama’s former National Security Adviser Susan Rice reportedly admits having requested to see the protected identities of Trump transition officials “incidentally” captured by government surveillance.
Approx. Oct. 10, 2017: Former Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos pleads guilty to lying to FBI about his unsuccessful efforts during the campaign to facilitate meetings between Trump officials and Russian officials.
Oct. 17, 2017: Obama’s former U.N. Ambassador Samantha Power reportedly tells Congressional investigators that many of the hundreds of “unmasking” requests in her name during the election year were not made by her.
Oct. 24, 2017: Congressional Republicans announce new investigations into a 2010 acquisition that gave Russia control of 20% of U.S. uranium supply while Clinton was secretary of state; and FBI decision not to charge Clinton in classified info probe.
Oct. 30, 2017: Special Counsel Mueller charges ex-Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort and business associate Rick Gates with tax and money laundering crimes related to their foreign work. The charges do not appear related to Trump.
Nov. 2, 2017: Carter Page testifies to House Intelligence committee under oath without an attorney and asks to have the testimony published. He denies ever meeting the Russian official that Fusion GPS claimed he’d met with in July 2016.
Nov. 5, 2017: Special Counsel Robert Mueller files charges against ex-Trump national security adviser Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn for allegedly lying to FBI official Peter Strzok about contacts with Russian ambassador during presidential transition.
Dec. 1, 2017: Former national security adviser Gen. Flynn pleads guilty of lying to the FBI. Prosecutors recommend no prison time (but later reverse their recommendation).
James Rybicki steps down as chief of staff to FBI Director.
Dec. 6, 2017: Associate Deputy Attorney General Bruce Ohr is reportedly stripped of one of his positions at Justice Dept. amid controversy over his and his wife’s role in anti-Trump political opposition research.
Dec. 7, 2017: FBI Director Wray incorrectly testifies that there have been no “702” surveillance abuses by the government.
Dec. 19, 2017: FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe repeatedly testifies that the wiretap against Trump campaign official Carter Page would not have been approved without the Fusion GPS info. FBI general counsel James Baker, who is himself subject of an Inspector General probe over his alleged leaks to the press, attends as McCabe’s attorney. McCabe acknowledges that if Baker had met with Mother Jones reporter David Corn, it would have been inappropriate.
FBI general counsel James Baker is reassigned amid investigation into his alleged anti-Trump related contacts with media.
2018
Jan. 4, 2018: Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) refer criminal charges against Christopher Steele to the FBI for investigation. There’s an apparent conflict of interest with the FBI being asked to investigate Steele since the FBI has used Steele’s controversial political opposition research to obtain wiretaps.
Jan. 8, 2018: Justice Dept. official Bruce Ohr loses his second title at the agency.
Jan. 10, 2018: Donald Trump lawyer Michael Cohen files defamation suits against Fusion GPS and BuzzFeed News for publishing the “Steele dossier,” which he says falsely claimed he met Russian government officials in Prague, Czech Republic, in August of 2016.
Jan. 11, 2018: House of Representatives approves government’s controversial “702” wireless surveillance authority. The Senate follows suit.
Jan. 19, 2018: Justice Dept. produces to Congress some text messages between FBI officials Lisa Page and Peter Strzok but states that FBI lost texts between December 14, 2016 and May 17, 2017 due to a technical glitch.
President Trump signs six-year extension of “702” wireless surveillance authority.
Jan. 23, 2018: Former FBI Director Comey friend who leaked on behalf of Comey to New York Times to spur appointment of special counsel is now Comey’s attorney.
Jan. 25, 2018: Justice Dept. Inspector General notifies Congress it has recovered missing text messages between FBI officials Lisa Page and Peter Strzok.
Jan. 27, 2018: Edward O’Callaghan is named Acting Assistant Attorney General, National Security Division.
Jan. 29, 2018: Andrew McCabe steps down as Deputy FBI Director ahead of his March retirement.
Jan. 30, 2018: News reports allege that Justice Department Inspector General is looking into why FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe appeared to wait three weeks before acting on new Clinton emails found right before the election.
Feb. 2, 2018: House Intelligence Committee (Nunes) Republican memo is released. It summarizes classified documents revealing for the first time that Fusion GPS political opposition research was used, in part, to justify Carter Page wiretap; along with Michael Isikoff Yahoo News article based on the same opposition research.
Memo also states that Fusion GPS set up back channel to FBI through Nellie Ohr, who conducted opposition research on Trump and passed it to her husband, associate deputy attorney general Bruce Ohr.
Feb. 7, 2018: Justice Department official David Laufman, who helped oversee the Clinton and Russia probes, steps down as chief of National Security Division’s Counterintelligence and Export Control Section.
Feb. 9, 2018: Former FBI Director Comey assistant Josh Campbell leaves FBI for job at CNN.
Justice Department Associate Attorney General, Office of Legal Policy, Rachel Brand, resigns.
Feb. 16, 2018: Special counsel Mueller obtains guilty plea from a Dutch attorney for lying to federal investigators about the last time he spoke to Rick Gates regarding a 2012 project related to Ukraine. The plea does not appear to relate to 2016 campaign or Trump. The Dutch attorney is married to the daughter of a Russian oligarch who’s suing Buzzfeed and Christopher Steele for alleged defamation in the “dossier.”
Feb. 22, 2018: Former State Dept. official and Sen. John McCain associate David Kramer invokes his Fifth Amendment right not to testify before House Intelligence Committee. Kramer reportedly picked up the anti-Trump political opposition research in London and delivered it to Sen. McCain who delivered it to the FBI.
Special counsel Mueller files new charges against former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort and former campaign aide Rick Gates, accusing them of additional tax and bank fraud crimes. The allegations appear to be unrelated to Trump.
Fri. Feb. 23, 2018: Former Trump campaign aide Rick Gates, pleads guilty to conspiracy and lying to investigators (though he issues a statement saying he’s innocent of the indictment charges). The allegations and plea have no apparent link to Trump-Russia campaign collusion.
Sat. Feb. 24, 2018: Democrats on House Intel Committee release their rebuttal memo to the Republican version that summarized alleged FBI misconduct re: using the GPS Fusion opposition research to get wiretap against Carter Page.
March 12, 2018: House Intelligence Committee closes Russia-Trump investigation with no evidence of collusion.
Fri. March 16, 2018: Attorney General Jeff Sessions fires Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe, based on recommendation from FBI ethics investigators.
Thurs. March 22, 2018: President Trump announces plans to replace National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster with former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton.
House Judiciary Committee issues subpoenas to Department of Justice after Department failed to produce documents.
May 4, 2018: Amid allegations that he was responsible for improper leaks, FBI attorney James Baker resigns and joins the Brookings Institution, writing for the anti-Trump blog “Lawfare” that first discussed the need for an “insurance policy” in case Trump got elected.
2019
March 2019: Special Counsel Robert Mueller signs off on his final report stating that there was no collusion or coordination between Trump — or any American — and Russia. He leaves as an open question the issue of whether Trump took any actions that could be considered obstruction. No new charges are recommended or filed with the issuance of the report.
June 2019: Former Trump National Security Adviser Flynn fire his defense attorneys and hires Sidney Powell.
Oct. 25, 2019: Flynn files a motion to dismiss the case against him due to prosecutorial misconduct. Among other claims, Flynn says prosecutors failed to turn over exculpatory material tending to show his innocence. Prosecutors claim they were not required to turn over the information.
Dec. 19, 2019: An investigation by Inspector General Michael Horowitz finds egregious abuses by FBI and Justice Department officials in obtaining wiretaps of former Trump campaign volunteer Carter Page. The report also says an FBI attorney doctored a document, providing false information to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, to get the wiretaps.
2020
Jan. 7, 2020: Prosecutors reverse their earlier recommendation for no prison time, and ask for up to six months in prison for Flynn.
Jan. 16, 2020: Flynn files a motion to withdraw his guilty plea.
Jan. 23, 2020: The Dept. of Justice finds that two of its wiretaps against former Trump campaign volunteer Carter Page were improperly obtained and are therefore invalid.
Feb. 10, 2020: The Dept. of Justice asks a judge to sentence Trump associate Roger Stone to 7 to 9 years in prison for lying about his communications with WikiLeaks.
Feb. 11, 2020: The Dept. of Justice reduces its recommendation for prison time for Stone after President Trump and others criticized the initial representation as excessive. Stone receives three years and four months in prison.
Feb. 20, 2020: President Trump appoints Richard Grenell as acting Director of National Intelligence. Grenell begins facilitating the release of long withheld documents regarding FBI actions against Trump campaign associates.
March 31, 2020: A Justice Dept. Inspector General’s analysis of more than two dozen wiretap applications from eight FBI field offices over two months finds “we do not have confidence” that the bureau followed standards to ensure the accuracy of the wiretap requests.
April 3, 2020: Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court asks FBI to review whether it wiretaps are valid in light of information about problems and abuses.
April 29, 2020: Newly-released documents show FBI officials, prior to their original interview with Flynn, discussing whether the goal was to try to get him to lie to get him fired or so that he could be prosecuted.
May 7, 2020: The Department of Justice announces a decision to drop the case against Flynn.
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- Economic Virus Shock Crushes America's Working Poor, Fed Finds
Economic Virus Shock Crushes America’s Working Poor, Fed Finds
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 22:30The Federal Reserve on Thursday published a new survey of how virus-related lockdowns disproportionately affected Americans, suggesting the working-poor has been crushed under the weight of high unemployment and economic distress.
The new survey, titled “Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2019, Featuring Supplemental Data from April 2020,” provides further clarity into the upcoming social-economic challenges of widening wealth inequality as a result of the economic devastation triggered by lockdowns.
It said 40% of respondents earning less than $40,000 per year reported a job loss in March. The Fed’s report concentrated on the economic conditions of households at the end of 2019, which was then supplemented with employment data from the start of March through early April, capturing the first several weeks of unprecedented job loss.
“Thirty-nine percent of people working in February with a household income below $40,000 reported a job loss in March. Another 6 percent of all adults had their hours reduced or took unpaid leave. Taken together, 19 percent of all adults reported either losing a job or experiencing a reduction in work hours in March,” the report said.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell outlined in a webcast to Congress this week that severe economic impacts related to virus shutdowns were mostly seen for lower-income Americans:
“The numbers show clearly that it’s more recent hires and lower-paid people who are bearing the brunt of this, although people are suffering all across the income spectrum,” Powell said.
Powell urged Congress to do more to prevent long-lasting economic damage from the virus.
The Fed’s survey doesn’t capture the millions more that were laid off since early April. At the moment, current figures show 36 million Americans have applied for unemployment benefits since early March. The unemployment rate jumped to 15% this week, the highest since the Great Depression.
Most of the job loss has been concreted in the leisure and hospitality industry, which is an industry where many low-income folks have been working over the prior expansion. Many of these folks are stuck in a renting society, gig-economy, insurmountable debts, and limited savings, some, as we’ve noted, are now financially doomed. They will be pushed onto the government welfare system, with an increasing possibility that universal basic income will become a more permanent program.
The collapse in employment has substantially affected the financial well-being of families; many of these households may never recover. We recently noted, “42% of the layoffs seen over the last several months would result in permanent job loss.” Talk about a shell shocker for when all these folks try to find a job when states reopen. The worst part is that an economic recovery could take 2-4 years, with unemployment staying at elevated levels as the country must restructure the economy. This virus-induced downturn is already fundamentally altering the lives of tens of millions of folks, who even before the virus, were not prepared for financial Armageddon.
Back to the Fed survey, of the respondents that lost their jobs or had hours reduced, 70% reported an income decline, impacting their ability to service debt.
About 64% of those with a job loss or decline in weekly hours worked were able to pay bills in full, compared with 85% of those who continued to work.
At least half of the respondents said they would have trouble covering a $400 expense.
The survey offers a unique perspective into the economic devastation that has already crushed the lower tier of society and the challenges that could develop as wealth inequality is pushed to extremes.
- Newly Released Incident Reports Detail US Navy's "UFO" Encounters
Newly Released Incident Reports Detail US Navy’s “UFO” Encounters
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 22:10Newly released “hazard reports” detailing encounters between US Navy aircraft and “unidentified aerial phenomena” reveal details about incidents that were thrust into the spotlight when the Pentagon officially declassified and released videos of three encounters late last month.
“The unknown aircraft appeared to be small in size, approximately the size of a suitcase, and silver in color,” one report describing an incident from March 26, 2014, said.
During that encounter one of the Navy F/A-18 jets “passed within 1000′ of the object, but was unable to positively determine the identity of the aircraft,” the report added, saying the US Navy pilot “attempted to regain visual contact with the aircraft, but was unable.”
CNN on May 13 obtained the Navy Safety Center documents, which were previously labeled “For Official Use Only.” They follow the Pentagon’s official release late last month of three short videos showing “unidentified aerial phenomena” that had previously been made public by a private company.
The reports were first published by the Drive, a website covering auto news and military issues, which obtained the documents through a Freedom of Information Act request.
The videos show what appear to be unidentified flying objects rapidly moving while recorded by infrared cameras. Two of the videos contain Naval aviators reacting in awe at how quickly the objects are moving. One voice speculates that it could be a drone.
Objects Could Be Drones
The newly released reports appear to share this assessment, describing many of the unidentified aircraft as “Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS),” the Pentagon’s official name for drone aircraft.
According to another incident report from November 2013 a Navy F/A-18 pilot “was able to visually acquire a small aircraft. The aircraft had an approximately 5 foot wingspan and was colored white with no other distinguishable features.”
“Due to the small size, the aircraft was determined to be a UAS,” the report said.
Another incident from June 27, 2013, said the encountered “aircraft was white in color and approximately the size and shape of a drone or missile,” according to the report.
But the reports say that even when the unidentified flying objects are assessed to be drones the military was unable to identify who was operating the drone, presenting a major safety and security challenge to the Navy jets training in the area which are restricted military training airspace ranges off the east coast of Virginia.
“Post flight, the controlling agency contacted numerous local UAS operators, but none claimed knowledge of” the unidentified aircraft, the November report said.
“I feel it may only be a matter of time before one of our F/A-18 aircraft has a mid-air collision with an unidentified UAS,” one of the authors of a report warned.
“In many ways” drones “pose a greater midair risk than manned aircraft. They are often less visually significant and less radar apparent than manned aircraft,” the report said.
There is also the possibility that the drones could be operated by an adversary such as Russia or China who may have been seeking to collect information about U.S. military’s operations.
The Navy now has formal guidelines for how its pilots can report when they believe they have seen possible UFOs.
The videos of the encounters were first released between December 2017 and March 2018 by To The Stars Academy of Arts & Sciences, a company co-founded by former Blink-182 musician Tom DeLonge that says it studies information about unidentified aerial phenomena.
The Truth Is Out There
The Pentagon has previously studied recordings of aerial encounters with unknown objects as part of a since-shuttered classified program that was launched at the behest of former Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada. The program was launched in 2007 and ended in 2012, according to the Pentagon, because they assessed that there were higher priorities that needed funding.
Nevertheless, Luis Elizondo, the former head of the classified program, told CNN in 2017 that he personally believes “there is very compelling evidence that we may not be alone.”
“These aircraft—we’ll call them aircraft—are displaying characteristics that are not currently within the US inventory nor in any foreign inventory that we are aware of,” Elizondo said of objects they researched. He says he resigned from the Defense Department in 2017 in protest over the secrecy surrounding the program and the internal opposition to funding it.
President Donald Trump called the recently officially released Pentagon footage a “hell of a video” and told Reuters he wonders “if it’s real.”
“I just wonder if it’s real,” Trump said of the videos. “That’s a hell of a video.”
- 1 Million Students At California Universities To Stay Home Next Fall As Campuses Go 'Online Only'
1 Million Students At California Universities To Stay Home Next Fall As Campuses Go ‘Online Only’
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 21:50The California State University system, commonly recognized as the largest four-year university system in the country with 23 total campus, will not hold in-person classes through the fall semester for the majority of programs due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Chancellor Timothy White informed a board meeting on Tuesday that “nearly all in-person classes” will be canceled, meaning the current remote learning online format will continue.
And additionally concerning the other major system in the state, the University of California, a new statement this week said “it’s likely none of our campuses will fully re-open in fall,” according to a UC spokesman.
The University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Getty Images. As multiple reports have underscored, this means a total of more than 770,000 students will not return to campus — which will no doubt be a huge blow to school finances, which often relies heavily for daily operations on campus-related fees such as housing, to say nothing of the coming likely massive drop in tuition and other crucial funds.
Considering other public and private colleges and universities in California are now likely to also go on-line only, we’re now talking a whopping one million students expected to stay home.
It further introduces the huge unknown of how many students will choose to forgo paying tuition for what many see as a sub-par online education as opposed to the holistic experience of a college campus. As we described before many especially incoming college freshmen are likely to take a ‘gap year’ as they’re not interested in dropping $50K plus for a semester sitting in their living room.
A California State University statement this week said: “First and foremost is the health, safety and welfare of our students, faculty and staff, and the evolving data surrounding the progression of Covid-19 — current and as forecast throughout the 2020-21 academic year,” according to CNN.
And the University of California announcement said it “will be exploring a mixed approach with some material delivered in classroom and labs settings while other classes will continue to be online.”
#CORONAVIRUS IMPACT: The California State University (CSU) system said it plans to cancel all in-personal classes for the fall and to continue instruction online. https://t.co/FvDQDr0AE0
— ABC7 News (@abc7newsbayarea) May 12, 2020
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Apparently the few programs which will be deemed as essential to conduct in-person involve professions like nursing, bio-research, and medical related disciplines, where access to labs, medical equipment, and patient interaction are crucial.
Schools across the nation are already losing tens of millions in campus and summer fees given shutdowns, not to mention sports programs being shuttered, also as the the question of whether in-person instruction will even happen next Fall remains the biggest anxiety-inducing huge unknown, potentially delivering a financial fatal blow to a number of already struggling schools.
Endowment values have plunged along with markets to boot. And then there’s a no doubt a greatly diminished incoming freshman class, and with that severely declining numbers of tuition checks coming in. Already faculty members are being furloughed in some cases, or salaries being cut.
- How The COVID-19 Lockdowns Will Increase Resentment Of The Elderly
How The COVID-19 Lockdowns Will Increase Resentment Of The Elderly
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 21:30Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,
In an article for the LA Times earlier this month, Laura Newberry contends that the COVID-19 panic has “amplified” ageism in the United States. This is likely true, yet the article completely misses the true cause.
Certainly, ageism is a problem for many people. Reprehensible crimes such as elder abuse deserve our attention. Thanks to our highly mobile society, fewer people spend time with their elderly parents or grandparents. This has in many cases reduced the degree to which the elderly are regarded as important members of society.
But it’s unclear why the presence of COVID-19 should amplify any of this. The elderly have always been more susceptible to disease and disability. In bad flu years, do we claim that the additional deaths “amplify ageism”? That does not appear to be have been the case.
If we want to really understand how the COVID-19 panic will amplify ageism – assuming it does – we need look no further than the politics of the government-forced economic shutdowns.
How do the shutdowns increase ageism? Because the extreme and damaging nature of the policy response could lead many to perceive the current economic crisis with record unemployment as the result of a set of policies designed to protect the elderly effectively at the expense of younger workers, parents, students, and families.
After all, most people are aware that the elderly are at greatest risk to COVID-19.
In many states, for example, 50 percent of deaths have occurred in nursing homes.
Eighty percent of deaths occur among those over sixty-five.
Yet instead of isolating these populations, and concentrating on targeting resources to help the most vulnerable, politicians have decided to throw millions out of work, destroy businesses, and close a multitude of social institutions such as schools and churches. Just to be on the safe side.
But it’s only a “safe side” for some.
Thanks to the shutdowns, child abuse has increased, drug abuse has surged, and unemployment will likely lead to more drug overdoses and more suicide.
Under these conditions, many are more likely to come to the conclusion that this is a case of governments choosing winners and losers: the elderly know that the COVID-19 disease is most dangerous to them.
Politicians in turn pander to the elderly, who are a powerful demographic which votes in higher proportions than any other age group. The winners here, therefore, are the elderly, who seem to have the government’s ear.
The losers, meanwhile, are: family breadwinners who lose their jobs, twenty-somethings who can’t start a family, children who can’t attend school, college students who are paying thousands for third-rate Zoom classes, drug addicts cut off from the support they need, and everyone who needs now banned “elective”(but actually very important) medical services not related to COVID-19.
It’s only natural that this perceived political battle over economic shutdowns would lead to a relative increase in resentment toward the elderly in some cases. And the larger the economic misery gets, the worse the ageism will get. April’s unemployment numbers were dismal. May’s may be even worse. The wave of evictions and foreclosures hasn’t yet had a chance to materialize. But it will. In the minds of the newly homeless and unemployed, some are likely to conclude that they and their families are living out of their car because the economy was destroyed in the name of protecting people who no longer are responsible for keeping children fed and clothed.
This won’t improve social cohesion.
This would not occur to the same degree, however, had the matter not been politicized. Had social pressure and education been used—instead of heavy-handed coercive state methods—to enhance health measures for the elderly, there would be no reason to look at this as an “us vs. them” scenario. But this is what politics does. It employs the violence of the state to jail, fine, and impoverish many in the name of ostensibly benefiting some particular group of people.
The result in this case will indeed be an amplification of ageism. But these feelings are not completely unfounded. Politics is generally a game of one group using the coercive power of the state to extract benefits at the expense of others. If the elderly benefit from lockdowns (which may or may not even be the case), then these benefits are coming at the expense of others.
Of course, not all elderly people want the lockdowns or ever asked for them. Many actively oppose them. But politics isn’t about nuance or evaluating individual cases. It’s about exploiting some groups in the name of helping others. In the end, the politicians benefit the most.
- Jordan's King Warns "Massive Conflict" Coming If Israel Moves To Annex West Bank
Jordan’s King Warns “Massive Conflict” Coming If Israel Moves To Annex West Bank
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 21:10With Washington’s backing, Israel is planning to move forward on controversial plans to annex a broad swath of the West Bank, particularly the Jordan Valley, as early as this summer. PM Netanyahu last month issued a likely time table of “within two months”.
Arab nations, especially in the gulf, have remained uncharacteristically mum about the whole thing as they focus on countering Iran (which has, it should be noted, actually brought Saudi Arabia into a quiet ‘covert’ intelligence sharing relationship with Israel over the past couple years).
But Jordan on Friday finally went on the offensive, with King Abdullah telling the German magazine Der Spiegel that Israeli annexation of parts of the West Bank “will lead to a massive conflict with Jordan”.
Jordanian King Abdullah II, AFP via Getty. The ‘warning’ was posted to the official website of the king’s Royal Hashemite Court on Friday:
Asked about the impact of Israel potentially moving forward with the annexation of parts of the West Bank, the King said it could lead to a massive conflict with Jordan.
“I don’t want to make threats and create an atmosphere of loggerheads, but we are considering all options. We agree with many countries in Europe and the international community that the law of strength should not apply in the Middle East,” His Majesty added.
He further reaffirmed Jordan’s position that “the two-state solution is the only way for us to be able to move forward.” He at the same time urged the region to focus on collective efforts at fighting coronavirus instead of clashing with each other, as he said will happen if Israel initiates its provocative and ‘illegal’ expansionist plans.
Abdullah, who maintains a close relationship with the United States and has long opened his country to CIA and US military presence especially during the early years of regime change efforts in Syria, also warned that “chaos and extremism in the region” would be unleashed if the Palestinian Authority collapsed.
“Leaders who advocate a one-state solution do not understand what that would mean. What would happen if the Palestinian National Authority collapsed? There would be more chaos and extremism in the region,” he said.
Image via AFP Meanwhile, as mentioned the United States will soon approve Israel’s move to annex parts of the West Bank under Trump’s “deal of the century” peace plan.
“President Trump pledged to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Jewish communities there and in the Jordan Valley,” Netanyahu said last month.
But should Israeli annexation indeed move forward by this summer, as Netanyahu envisions, it could potentially unleash protests and violence on the level of a third Intifiada. Palestinian Authority leaders as well as Hamas have vowed that such an extensive new Israeli land grab will be resisted by call costs.
And now it appears neighboring Jordan, long host to the largest Palestinian ‘permanent’ refugee community in the region, is ready to help stoke the flames of chaos and resistance to the US-Israeli plan. However, it also remains that Jordan has in the end proven itself a compliant puppet state of Washington and Israeli interests time and again.
- COVID-19 Deaths & Pre-Existing Conditions. What Illinois' Data Says About Who's At Risk
COVID-19 Deaths & Pre-Existing Conditions. What Illinois’ Data Says About Who’s At Risk
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 20:50Authored by Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner via Wirepoints.org,
Wirepoints recently analyzed data from Cook County’s Medical Examiner and found that 92 percent of Cook County COVID-19 victims had pre-existing conditions. Those that died had comorbidities including diabetes, obesity, hypertension and heart disease.
Many Americans have pre-existing conditions. Data from the CDC says that 45 percent of people have hypertension. Another 43 percent are obese. And another 10 percent have diabetes.
However, that doesn’t mean that all Americans with one or more pre-existing conditions are at serious risk of death from COVID-19. Illinois’ fatality data shows that the virus has had a limited impact on younger demographics.
Below we focus on the impact of COVID-19 on the under-50 population for three key reasons.
First, it’s important to determine whether it’s safe, in general, for the younger crowd to get back to school and college.
Second, it’s vital to determine if it’s safe for workers to get back to their jobs – the under-50 demographic makes up nearly 70 percent of Illinois’ workforce.
And third, it’s at age 50 where case-fatality numbers become more significant, in relative terms.
The limited impact on under-50s
If all Illinoisans with pre-existing conditions were at a similar risk of dying from COVID-19, then we’d expect to see a more even share of deaths across every age group. That’s not the case. The number of deaths in younger brackets are far outnumbered by those in older brackets. The number of deaths for those under 50 total just 200. In contrast, the virus has claimed 3,592 lives for those over 50.
The known-case fatality rates in Illinois (number of COVID-19 deaths divided by known cases) tell a similar story. The fatality rates go down dramatically as age decreases.
In particular, for those younger than 50, the average fatality rate is just 0.4%. (We know the real case-fatality number will be much, much lower once testing reveals the true number of cases). If pre-existing conditions were a major factor across all age groups, the fatality rates would be much higher in the younger age groups. But they aren’t.
The data is even more clear when looking across the entire population. About 65% of Illinois’ population is younger than 50, yet they make up just 5% of all COVID-19 deaths. In contrast, those over age 50 make up just 35% of the population, but 95% of all deaths. The data shows that pre-existing conditions aren’t impacting younger brackets like they are the 50-plus age group.
However, comorbidities are a key risk factor when combined with age and location (long-term care facilities). The elderly with pre-existing conditions and living in retirement homes are most at risk from COVID-19, according to the data.
Illinois needs far stricter controls, testing and PPE for nursing homes. We need to reverse Pritzker’s refusal to employ antibody tests to try to identify workers who could more safely care for those who are at risk. Far more attention needs to go there and toward protecting the elderly in general. We must be certain they can stay at home by assuring delivery of necessities.
Essential workers and younger people need to understand the importance of staying away from those at risk. Extended families need to be educated on how to physically distance within the same home, and perhaps offered assistance if they are in smaller homes where that is not possible.
Going forward
Reopening Illinois is important to limit the total deaths from this crisis: those stemming from COVID-19 as well as those from despair – residents who die from increased rates of poverty, suicide, domestic violence and drug abuse. In the longer run, depressions kill millions, and we do face a grave risk of a depression. Poorer economies have lower average lifespans because less money is available for health care, traffic safety, medical research, environmental advances, food safety and myriad other things that make life not only better but safer.
We can reopen Illinois by targeting our resources on those truly at risk to not only saves lives now, but in the long run.
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Read more about COVID-19 and the impact on Illinois:
- "Bolsonaro Is A Virus" – Opposition Leader Calls For President's Impeachment As Brazil Reports Record 15k Cases In A Single Day
“Bolsonaro Is A Virus” – Opposition Leader Calls For President’s Impeachment As Brazil Reports Record 15k Cases In A Single Day
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 20:30It’s become blindingly obvious that the coronavirus outbreak in Brazil has spiraled out of control, offering an example of the consequences of minimal containment efforts, and causing unease across Latin America, as Brazil’s neighbors move to close borders to ensure Brazilians don’t carry the virus across the border.
As the situation spirals out of control, President Jair Bolsonaro is spending more time egging on his most radical supporters, who are now openly calling for a military takeover of the government, and a return to a military dictatorship with Bolsonaro at the head. Though, as the Washington Post was forced to admit, most Brazilians view the likelihood of a military intrusion into public life as remote.
Just hours after Brazil’s health minister resigned following less than a month on the job, the country’s public health officials reported a record 15,305 cases during the prior day. Before resigning, Health Minister Nelson Teich had criticized Bolsonaro’s presidential decree calling for beauty parlors and gyms to reopen. While Teich gave no reason for his resignation, his predecessor was sacked by Bolsonaro for disagreeing with the president’s opposition to lockdowns. Bolsonaro believes that the virus is nothing more than a “little flu” and that it will inevitably spread.
Brazil’s Globo newspaper reported that Teich disagreed with Bolsonaro’s insistence on using hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine to treat the virus, and sources said this disagreement was the last straw.
Military members of Bolsonaro’sn cabinet are pushing for deputy health minister Eduardo Pazuello, an army general on active duty, to become the new health minister, making his current “interim” position permanent, according to Reuters.
Teich’s predecessor, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, was fired in April after he urged Brazilians to observe social distancing and stay indoors.
Over the past week, Brazil has surged past Germany and France on the global coronavirus depth chart and, in terms of its coronavirus caseload, it has become arguably the world’s worst hotspot, since epidemiologists suspect that more than a million cases have probably gone diagnosed, along with tens of thousands of deaths.
The record number of cases brought Brazil’s total north of 218,000 cases, and the 824 new deaths recorded in the last day brought Brazil’s death toll to 14,817.
The governor of Sao Paolo state lashed out at Bolsonaro on Friday, comparing him to a virus: he said Brazil is suffering from two viruses right now. the coronavirus, and the Bolsonaro virus.
“Unfortunately right now in Brazil, we combat two virus: the coronavirus and the Bolsonaro virus.”
João Doria, Sao Paulo’s governor says the decisions he’s making for his city are backed by science, and not politics pic.twitter.com/mhNzfvQhwD @QuickTake
— Karim RAFFA (@karimraffa) May 15, 2020
While his supporters push a military takeover, Congressional opposition leader Alessandro Molon warned that Brazil was heading toward a public health catastrophe, and has started pushing for Bolsonaro to be impeached.
“Bolsonaro does not want a technical minister, he wants someone who agrees with his ideological insanity, like ending social distancing and using chloroquine,” Molon, a lawmaker from the Brazilian Socialist Party, said in a statement.
Bolsonaro’s handling of the coronavirus has been widely criticised globally as he has minimised the severity of the disease and told Brazilians to ignore quarantine restrictions.
The most hard-hit areas of Brazil are in most cases also among the most remote. Yesterday, the Washington Post published a story about the crisis in Manaus, a city of 2 million people on the Amazon River deep in the rainforest. More than 2,000 people died in Manaus last month, more than 4x the normal rate.
The city is rapidly running out of coffins, hundreds are dying at home – either because they can’t get treatment at the hospitals or because they fear they won’t – and ambulances race down streets with no clear destination, waiting for patients to die so more beds can open up.
Dwindling supplies, deteriorating health systems, endemic corruption and mismanagement have all made it impossible for developing nations to muster the same response to the crisis that Spain, Italy and the US have. In Guayaquil, Ecuador, bodies have been left out in the streets. In Loreto, Peru, corpses have been stacked haphazardly in a small hospital room, and in Brazil, patients spend their last hours and days on this planet waiting in chairs in crowded hospital emergency rooms.
After years of economic recession, Brazil has neither the money, tools or personnel to confront the problem as it stands.
If there’s any major country that’s truly at risk for a complete unraveling of the social fabric, at this point, it’s probably Brazil.
- Understanding The Mueller Lies About Michael Flynn
Understanding The Mueller Lies About Michael Flynn
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 20:10Authored by Larry Johnson via Sic Semper Tyrannis blog,
I want to help the average citizen understand how egregious and dishonest the Mueller team was in bringing charges against Michael Flynn for lying to FBI agents about what he said to Russia’s Ambassador in a telephone conversation, which was likely intercepted by the CIA.
Michael Flynn did not do a damn thing wrong in that conversation and the notes from FBI agents Strzok and Pientka, which Sidney Powell finally pried loose after more than two years of the prosecutors hiding exculpatory evidence, do not support the Statement of Offense.
I suspect most of you reading this have never read the Statement of Offense. I am going to let you read for yourself the salient portions:
…
b. On or about December 28, 2016, the Russian Ambassador contacted FLYNN.
c. On or about December 29, 2016, FLYNN called a senior official of the Presidential Transition Team (“PTT official”), who was with other senior members of the Presidential Transition Team at the Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, to discuss what, if anything, to communicate to the Russian Ambassador about the U.S. Sanctions. On that call, FLYNN and the PTT official discussed the U.S. Sanctions, including the potential impact of those sanctions on the incoming administration’s foreign policy goals. The PIT official and FLYNN also discussed that the members of the Presidential Transition Team at Mar-a-Lago did not want Russia to escalate the situation.
d. Immediately after his phone call with the PIT official, FLYNN called the Russian Ambassador and requested that Russia not escalate the situation and only respond to the U.S. Sanctions in a reciprocal manner.
e. Shortly after his phone call with the Russian Ambassador, FLYNN spoke with the PTT official to report on the substance of his call with the Russian Ambassador, including their discussion of the U.S. Sanctions.
…
Got that?
Michael Flynn acted professionally and followed protocol. The Russian Ambassador called him. General Flynn called K. T. McFarlane, who was at Mar a Lago with the Trump Transition Team and asked for guidance on whether or not to respond and, if he was going to respond, what to say.
Michael Flynn’s communication with Ambassador Kislyak was appropriate and wise–he asked the Russian Ambassador not escalate the situation and only respond to the U.S. Sanctions in a reciprocal manner. Please tell me what the hell is wrong, nefarious or stupid about that? NOTHING. Michael Flynn could have told the Russian that Obama was a moron and could have promised, “we will eliminate those sanctions on day one.” He did not do either. Mike Flynn conducted himself with discretion and with professionalism.
But there is one other important piece of news in this Statement of Offense. Someone in the Obama Administration INTERCEPTED Mike Flynn’s phone call to the Presidential Transition Team (aka PTT). Who did that? The NSA? The CIA? The FBI? That question needs to be answered because there was no legal basis to intercept this conversation.
As I noted in my previous article (see here), this was the conversation that Jim Comey and Andrew McCabe wanted to use as the pretext and predicate for keeping the investigation of Michael Flynn open.
Here is what Agents Strzok and Pientka wrote in one of their initial drafts of the 302 (i.e., the FBI record of their interview with Michael Flynn). Note–the original draft is still missing in action. The FBI is either incompetent or hiding it.
Michael Flynn said, according to Agents Strzok and Pientka, “I DON”T REMEMBER.”
At no point did the Agents give him the chance to review the transcript, which they had in their hot little hands.
And Peter Strzok, in a subsequent interview with FBI Agents working for the DOJ Inspector General, said this on July 19, 2017:
The FBI Agents interviewing Strzok make it clear–“Strzok and Pientka both had the impression at the time that Flynn was not lying or did not think he was lying.”
The record is very clear and you should now be able to understand why Michael Flynn’s attorney was so outraged and why the Department of Justice is dismissing charges against Michael Flynn.
Robert Mueller and his prosecutors lied. Michael Flynn did not. It is that simple.
- Goldman Spots A Huge Problem For The Fed
Goldman Spots A Huge Problem For The Fed
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 19:45Last week, the Treasury shocked the world when it announced that in the current quarter (the 3rd of the fiscal year), the US will need to sell a mindblowing, record $3 trillion (pardon, $2.999 trillion) in Treasurys to finance the US money helicopter.
This, after selling $807 billion in the first half of the fiscal year, and another $677 billion in the quarter ending Sept 30.
And since it is just a matter of time before Congress has to pass yet another fiscal package which will be at least another trillion dollars, and up to $3 trillion if the Democrats get their wish, one can say that Guggenheim’s projection of over $5 trillion in debt issuance this calendar year will be wildly conservative.
Now here’s the thing: as Deutsche Bank recently showed, so far this new debt avalanche was entire monetized exclusively by the Fed, whose debt purchasing operations have been far greater than the net Treasury issuance.
But this was only the case when the Fed was buying a massive $75 billion in TSYs per day in the late March crash, when Powell dumped a monetary nuclear bomb on the market to stabilize the biggest panic selling an entire generation of traders had ever seen, and nearly doubling the Fed’s balance – which is now just shy of $7 trillion, in a few months:
Since then, however, the Fed’s daily and weekly POMO has shrunk substantially, and as discussed earlier, it is down to just $30BN in Treasury purchases per week as of next week, which amounts to around $1.5 trillion per year.
There’s just one problem: $30BN per week in TSY monetization is nowhere near enough to consume the trillions in Treasury issuance that is about to hit. In fact, all else equal, the Fed will very soon have to find a pretext to aggressively ramp up its treasury purchases.
As Goldman writes overnight, putting the problem in its proper context, “Central banks have been purchasing sovereign bonds at a rapid pace (Exhibit 1), faster than past QE programs in most cases. These purchases are occurring against a backdrop of a surge in fiscal deficits, which will require enormous amounts of additional sovereign supply to finance them.”
Which makes sense, of course: after all helicopter money, which is what we have now that MMT (Magic Money Theory) has been shoved down everyone’s throat without any debate, only works when there is coordination between the Treasury and the central bank. And while until now Fed purchases have generally offset Treasury issuance, that coordination is about to end. As Goldman puts it, “Central bank buying should absorb a substantial amount of upcoming issuance, though we expect increases in “free float” across most markets, most notably in the US, which adds to the medium-term case for higher yields and steeper curves there.”
Next, Goldman estimates this so-called free float, defined as the amount of sovereign debt outstanding less central bank and foreign official holdings, across major DM markets, and shows it in the chart below. Through the end of last year, free float was on a downward trend in Germany and Japan, as ECB and BoJ purchases absorbed the bulk of new supply. In contrast, free float had been trending higher for much of the year in the US and UK.
So with record fiscal deficits and resumption of asset purchases in several markets, where is free float headed this year? In Exhibit 3, Goldman lays out its expectations for total purchase amounts on a net basis along with net supply. It finds the largest increase in free float in the US, as Fed purchases continue to slow; in fact according to Goldman calculations the US public (now that foreign investors have hit the breaks on US TSY purchases), will be on the hook to fund the $1.6 trillion needed to bridge the full amount of US funding needs.
A similar picture emerges in the Euro area, where supply is also expected outpace ECB purchases, particularly in Italy, Spain and France (absent further increases in ECB purchases). Bizarrely, a similar picture emerges in Japan where even the always ravenous BoJ is expected to absorb a large portion (about ¥25tn) of incoming supply in the upcoming year as Japan is boosting its debt sales by 18.2 trillion yen ($170 billion) to fund a spending package equivalent to a fifth of its annual economic output; but according to Goldman, the scale of supply is likely to exceed even the BOJ’s QE purchases.
It continues: foreign-ownership of New Zealand sovereign debt has fallen to 50% from 70% just five years ago as central bankers in Wellington snap up bonds as part of a quantitative-easing program.
In short, even with central banks unleashing $7.9 trillion in QE so far in 2020 (according to Bank of America calculations) of which the Fed accounts for over $2.8 trillion in debt purchases alone, this won’t be enough to monetize the tsunami of debt that is coming to fund the biggest global rescue operation in history, and if investors find that suddenly the bond market has to clear without the only true backstop – the central bank – willing and able to mop up all the supply, a critical precondition for the continuation of “helicopter money”, the outcome could be disastrous.
Incidentally, we first warned about the urgent need for the Fed to aggressively step up and boost its QE (instead of continuing to taper it by $1 billion week after week as it did again today) on Wednesday when we quoted Curvature Securities’ rates strategist and repo expert Scott Skyrm, who calculated that “there are $689 billion net new Treasurys settling during the month of May and $992 billion net new Treasurys settling between now and June 15. Yes, almost one trillion new Treasury securities hitting the market within the next month!”
His conclusion: “That means the market needs to come up with about one trillion dollars to pay for those securities over the next month.” Which, of course, is a euphemism because we all know who in the market needs to come up with one trillion dollar – the only one who literally prints money: the Federal Reserve.
Conveniently, Goldman’s argument allows us to recycle our conclusion from two days ago, in which we said that here is the layman’s version of what was just said: “the Fed has flooded the system with liquidity… and it is not enough, because the way helicopter money works, is that liquidity supply (the Fed), and liquidity demand (Treasury via debt issuance) go hand in hand, and periods of too much supply, as was the cash with the Fed’s massive QE in late March and early April, are promptly followed by periods of dramatic liquidity demand, such as the next month when $1 trillion in liquidity will be drained to fund the US government “money helicopter.”
Goldman’s own calculations suggest that the shortfall net of the Fed’s ongoing QE tapering could be as much as $1.6 trillion.
As a result, Powell faces a two-fold problem: since the Fed chair has taken negative rates off the table, Powell has no choice but too boost QE again, and unleash another firehose of debt monetizing liquidity in the financial system. However, any such reversal to the Fed’s current posture of shrinking QE will be met with howls of rage, especially among what’s left of the conservative political establishment. Which means that, just like in March when the Fed used the first pandemic-induced market crash to unleash unlimited QE, the Fed will soon have to go for round 2 and spark a new market crash, one which it then uses as an alibi for the next massive liquidity injection. Failing to do that, watch as the dollar takes off as markets sniff out that another major dollar squeeze is imminent. And since this will accelerate the liquidity crunch, one way or another, the coming $1.6 trillion in Treasury issuance – which has already been generously greenlighted by Congress – will serve as a trigger for the next market shock, one which the Fed will quickly reverse by expanding the already unlimited QE by trillions on very short notice.
The only question we have is whether this will be the market crash that the Fed uses to unveil it will also buy equity ETfs next, or if Powell will save this final bullet in its ammo for whatever comes next.
Finally, it’s not just us reaching this conclusion: yesterday – one day after our dire assessment – Bloomberg reached the same conclusion, and in “An $8 Trillion Spree Sets Clock Ticking for Bonds’ Judgment Day” in which it wrote that “investors are mopping up the sales as long as central banks engage in so-called quantitative easing, buying an unlimited amount of debt to counter the ravages of the pandemic. But at the first whiff of a recovery, or a pullback from policy makers, all bets may be off. Throw in the threat of inflation amid a global fiscal splurge exceeding $8 trillion, and bond investors look set for a toxic cocktail of risks in the not-too-distant future.”
Well, today we got another pullback when the Fed tapered its weekly QE to just $30BN from $35BN last week, and a record $75 billion per day two months ago.
“Given the massive central bank easing, which includes a lot of bond-buying QE in many places, there will be a lot of demand right now to buy government bonds,” said Eric Stein, co-director of global income at Eaton Vance Management, effectively describing what can simply be called “frontrunning” the Fed, a strategy that even BlackRock said is the only one left in this idiotic market.
“However, if it was a year or two from now and the economy was picking up and inflation had started to pick up, the story could be different.”
Actually, the economy doesn’t even have to be picking up: an unexpected – and unexplained – slowdown in the pace of the Fed’s “unlimited QE” purchases would be sufficient to throw the bond market into unprecedented turmoil as all those socialists who pretend that MMT makes sense, realize that the only thing permitting their idiotic “theory” to persist is the Fed’s money printer.
Yet while the Fed’s QE expansion is just a matter of time, whether catalyzed by another market crash or not, the bigger question is what happens after that?
“Can governments continue to borrow at such record levels? No,” said George Boubouras, head of research at hedge fund K2 Asset Management. “Central-bank support is key in the massive bond buying we’ve seen for now. But if they blink then at some point, in the medium term, it will all likely unravel – with unforgiving consequences for some countries.”
Ironically, this also means that an end to the coronavirus crisis is the worst possible thing that could happen to a world that is now habituated to helicopter money and virtually unlimited handouts, which however need a state of perpetual crisis.
“Once there is an end to the crisis in sight, they will be less and less willing to provide support and it will fall more on the street to absorb paper,” said Mediolanum money manager Charles Diebel, who’s adding bond steepeners in anticipation of a coming inflationary supernova.
That, incidentally, would be the endgame for the current monetary regime, which is why anyone hoping that officials, policymakers and the establishment in general, will allow the coronavirus crisis to simply fade away, is in for the shock of a lifetime.
- Pompeo Was Right, China Admits It Ordered Early Virus Samples Destroyed
Pompeo Was Right, China Admits It Ordered Early Virus Samples Destroyed
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 19:36While perhaps somewhat out of context, it appears US Secretary Of State Mike Pompeo was right when he accused Beijing of failing to provide, and in fact destroying, samples of the virus at the start of the outbreak.
The South China Morning Post reports that Liu Dengfeng, an official with the National Health Commission’s science and education department, confirmed China had ordered unauthorised laboratories to destroy samples of the new coronavirus in the early stage of the outbreak, but claimed these orders were given for biosafety reasons.
“The remarks made by some US officials were taken out of context and intended to confuse,” Liu said at a briefing in Beijing.
Liu claimed that when the illness was first reported in Wuhan, “national-level professional institutes” were working to identify the pathogen that was causing it:
“Based on comprehensive research and expert opinion, we decided to temporarily manage the pathogen causing the pneumonia as Class II – highly pathogenic – and imposed biosafety requirements on sample collection, transport and experimental activities, as well as destroying the samples,” he said.
However, SCMP reports that according to a provincial health commission notice issued in February, those handling virus samples were ordered not to provide them to any institutions or labs without approval. Unauthorised labs that obtained samples in the early stage of the outbreak had to destroy them or send them to a municipal center for disease control and prevention for storage.
Additionally, in what is an odd stream of admissions and clarifications, another senior official, Li Mingzhu, with the health commission’s international cooperation department, rejected other US claims about access early on, claiming that the WHO did not make any request to visit the lab during two trips to Wuhan, in January and February.
“The WHO has never made a request to visit a certain laboratory, so the statement that the WHO was denied a visit to the Wuhan laboratory is untrue,” Li said.
So one wonders what exactly WHO was doing there, if it went at all. Of course, we would expect Tedros to fully corroborate these reports.
The odd timing of these ‘clarifications’ and simplicity of their claims makes one wonder why China had not simply announced this two or three months ago? What could they have had to hide if, as they said today, this was all “in line with Chinese standard practices”?
- Global Cooling!! Low Solar Activity To Cause Temperatures To Plummet, Say Scientists
Global Cooling!! Low Solar Activity To Cause Temperatures To Plummet, Say Scientists
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 19:30Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,
The Sun is entering a period of “solar minimum” that could cause temperatures to plummet by up to 2C over 20 years and trigger a global famine, according to experts.
Solar activity has entered a deep decline with scientists saying there have already been 100 days this year where the sun has displayed zero sunspots.
NASA boffins say this means that the earth could be about to experience a new “Dalton Minimum,” the period between 1790 and 1830 which led to a severe prolonged cold snap and massive volcanic eruptions.
“This means were could be entering one of the deepest period of sunshine recession which could trigger long periods of cold, famine and other issues,” reports the Daily Star.
The Sun has now recorded two consecutive years of record setting spotlessness, being blank 77% of the time in 2019 and 76% of the time so far this year.
This means a deep solar minimum is coming which will cause temperatures to drop drastically.
This once again serves as a reminder that the Sun is by far the most influential driver of climate and makes the impact of so-called man-made climate change look tame in comparison.
How are institutions of science, academia and media that have fully committed to the notion that anthropogenic global warming will cause environmental devastation going to react when the globe starts rapidly cooling?
Meanwhile, Greta Thunberg has been noticeably quiet on the matter.
* * *
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- Seventh Amazon Worker Dies Of COVID As Staff Scared To Return
Seventh Amazon Worker Dies Of COVID As Staff Scared To Return
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 19:10While Amazon restores regular delivery times for most of its products and is set to reduce hazard pay for its warehouse workers, a new report this week indicates that the seventh warehouse employee recently died from COVID-19.
The Verge reports, a warehouse worker at distribution center IND8, located in Indianapolis, Indiana, died on April 30 after contracting the disease. Several workers at the warehouse found out about the death and confronted management, who initially failed to inform staff about the passing. It was only after the confrontation that management became more transparent about the death:
“They weren’t going to say anything if it wasn’t for people asking questions,” an IND8 worker told The Verge, who asked to remain anonymous, considering Amazon has had a history of firing employees who speak up.
The death at IND8 is the second in the state. Virus-related deaths of Amazon warehouse employees have also been reported at Jeffersonville, Indiana; Staten Island and Bethpage, New York; Waukegan, Illinois; and Hawthorne and Tracy, California, which brings the total count to seven during the pandemic.
Amazon has quickly silenced workers and fired anyone who has voiced an opinion about workplace safety and or virus infections at warehouses. We noted this back in late March, a Staten Island warehouse employee organized a strike among colleagues, which was an attempt to force the company to disinfect the facility after a rash of virus cases. Days later the employee who organized the strike was fired.
Former Amazon employee Chris Smalls A top engineer at Amazon Web Services quit his job in early May after he was fed up with the company silencing workers who spoke up about workplace safety at warehouses.
Another IND8 worker, who requested anonymity, said: “Before we had the unlimited UPT [unpaid time off] so if people didn’t feel safe, they didn’t have to come to work. “When that went away, we went from having one hundred twenty five people back to four to five hundred people per shift. It’s really crowded.”
That worker and others are afraid the company is forcing people back to work who may be sick and could lead to a second virus wave at warehouses. Amazon offers paid leave for workers diagnosed with the virus, and partial pay for those who exhibit symptoms but do not test positive. The Verge noted this week (May 11-15), one shift of workers at IND8 were sent after someone tested positive for COVID-19. It was noted that the facility remained open for the next shift.
Despite the thermal monitoring of employees and rigorous disinfecting, IND8 workers are still terrified to come to work. One employee said: “We’re not essential,” said a worker. “Everyone’s like, why are we not shut down?”
The Verge said workers have recently received “six notifications about positive cases” at IND8.
By mid-May, more than 800 Amazon workers across the country have been tested positive for COVID-19.
- JC Penney Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
JC Penney Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 19:06In what may be one of the most bizarre bankruptcy filings, just hours after JCPenney stock was halted first thing in the morning when everyone was certain the company would announce its has filed its Chapter 11 petition only to read in a bizarre 8K that the company had instead made a $17 million interest payment due on its secured term loan during the 5-day grace period, the iconic retail giant (or maybe not so giant any more) and anchor mall tenant threw in the towel after all to what was a long, drawn out and painful period of fading into irrelevance, and just after 6pm announced it had filed for bankruptcy protection in the Southern District of Texas (docket #20-20182).
JCPenney joins a parade of retailers including Neiman Marcus, J.Crew and Stage Stores, who have all filed for bankruptcy this month. Other chains like Gap Inc. and Nordstrom Inc. have recently raised billions of dollars in debt to ensure they have the cash to weather the crisis and reopen stores, although it is unclear if they will survive in a bitter war with off-price chains like T.J. Maxx and e-commerce giants such as Amazon.com Inc
The company, founded by James Cash Penney in 1902, which was once a favorite of middle-class suburban consumers and which operated 846 department stores in 46 states as of Feb 1, had been seeking solutions to address billions of dollars in obligations after revenue evaporated amid government-imposed lockdowns to help stem the Covid-19 pandemic. Store shutdowns since March had choked off JCP’s revenue, putting even more pressure on the company’s massive debt load. After years of falling sales, red ink and failed turnaround efforts, the coronavirus pandemic hastened a reckoning with creditors over its $3.8 billion in debt.
It failed to find a solution, and as a result it filed a prepackaged Chapter 11 restructuring with lenders holding approximately 70% of JCPenney’s first lien debt to reduce the Company’s outstanding debt and strengthen its financial position. From the press release:
The RSA contemplates agreed-upon terms for a pre-arranged financial restructuring plan (the “Plan”) that is expected to reduce several billion dollars of indebtedness, provide increased financial flexibility to help navigate through the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and better position JCPenney for the long-term. To implement the Plan, the Company today filed voluntary petitions for reorganization under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas, in Corpus Christi, TX (the “Court”).
As part of the bankruptcy, JCP arranged a $900 million DIP loan which includes $450 million of fresh capital. It had been in discussions with some of its largest lenders, including Sixth Street Partners and KKR, Apollo Global and Ares Management, as well as H/2 Capital Partners, who will end up owning the post-reorg equity.
The financing, combined with cash flow generated by the Company’s ongoing operations, is expected to be sufficient to meet JCPenney’s operational and restructuring needs. As part of the DIP commitment from its existing lenders, “JCPenney will explore additional opportunities to maximize value, including a third-party sale process.”
JCPenney will also reduce its store footprint “to better align its business with the current operating environment. Stores will close in phases throughout the Chapter 11 process – and the first phase of closures, including specific store details and timing, will be disclosed in the coming weeks.”
Kirkland & Ellis LLP is serving as legal advisor, Lazard is serving as financial advisor, and AlixPartners LLP is serving as restructuring advisor to the Company.
The company listed between $1 and $10 billion in estimated assets, the same range of estimate liabilities, and over 100,000 creditors, most of whom are small vendors who hold trade claims against the company and will now have to get in line to get paid at some point in the coming months. In addition to the company’s bondholders, among the biggest trade creditors are Nike, Alfred Dunner and Byer California, with $32MM, $14MM and $12.6MM in claims, respectively.
Penney’s sales, which totaled $10.7 billion in the most recent fiscal year, have fallen each year since 2015, and it hasn’t made an annual profit in nearly a decade. The company skipped two interest payments in recent weeks, setting the clock on a bankruptcy filing.
Department stores have hammered not only by the secular changes in the . Stage Stores, which operates the Gordmans, Bealls and Goody’s chains in mostly rural towns, is liquidating hundreds of stores when they reopen this month and looking for a buyer. Both Macy’s Inc. and Nordstrom are closing some of their flagship stores.
Over the past decade, the company had been trying to attract younger shoppers, but it gave up on that goal to focus on winning back middle-aged moms. “They lost their core customer, and they have never been able to get her back,” said Chuck Grom, an analyst with Gordon Haskett Research Advisors. Jill Soltau, who has been CEO since 2018, refocused on apparel and launched a test store in Texas with a fitness studio and videogame lounge.
Like its formerly largest rival Sears, JCP was for decades a one-stop shop for millions of middle-class families, offering clothes, appliances, gardening equipment, portrait studios and beauty salons. At one point, the WSJ reminds us, it owned a bank and the Eckerd drugstore chain. It was once fixture in American shopping malls and at its peak in the 1970s operated more than 1,600 stores; in a few years nobody will remember the name once all of its big box outlets are either converted into laser tag arcades or are acquired by Amazon.
With JCPenney’s most liquid bonds trading at roughly 6 cents on the dollar Friday morning, the bankruptcy filling has been fully priced in.
The full bankruptcy filing is below:
- How COVID-19 Is Forcing Americans Into Early Retirement
How COVID-19 Is Forcing Americans Into Early Retirement
Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/15/2020 – 18:50Via Birch Gold Group,
It goes without saying, the economy has been severely damaged as a result of various “stay-at-home” orders in response to COVID-19 (coronavirus).
One of the emerging ripple effects is that more Americans close to retirement are now considering whether or not to retire early.
In fact, due to prolonged business shutdowns, some may feel as though the decision is being made for them.
According to Forbes, even before COVID-19, “More than half of workers will be forced out of the workforce earlier than expected and for reasons out of their control.”
In light of current economic circumstances, “Will I be forced into early retirement?”may be a good question to ponder.
The Forbes article also noted that, with more than 22 million people filing for unemployment in just the last few weeks, we may see a large portion of those folks leave the workforce for good.
Once someone gets to retirement age, the desire to work longer to maintain income and lifestyle seems to dwindle a bit, according to the Forbes piece:
Only 23% of retirees said they would rather work longer when asked to choose between retiring at age 55, with money just for basic expenses, or working to 75 and having an extravagant lifestyle.
But even if a retirement saver doesn’t want to work longer, they may not enjoy a forced retirement if they aren’t prepared for it.
A study from Allianz found, “Six in 10 non-retirees said running out of money before they die is one of their biggest worries.” This is an even bigger worry in the aftermath of coronavirus.
Most Americans are Still Unprepared to “Make the Leap”
“When retirement starts” is a big concern for most people, according to the Allianz report. In fact, it may impact a retirement saver’s income during retirement, leaving them unprepared for what happens next:
Lack of clarity about when retirement may start and how time will be spent could have a significant effect on retirement income and whether or not retirees’ money will last as long as they do. This is a concern shared by both pre- and near-retirees as more than half (55%) of non-retirees said they are worried they won’t have enough saved for retirement.
In other words, more than half of people who are approaching retirement are not actually prepared to make the leap, even if a situation arose where they would be forced into making that decision.
More disturbing, two-thirds of the study respondents were not saving enough for retirement, while almost 9 out of 10 didn’t have a financial plan:
“When asked about the top financial choices they are making or planning to make, less than a third (32%) said saving enough in a retirement account, 12% said setting long-term financial goals and only 6% said making a formal financial plan[…]”
Finally, since the coronavirus has taken hold, equity investments have become an increasingly risky choice. Kelly O’Donnell from Edelman Financial offered a suggestion in a piece on CNBC, focusing on the long-term and diversification:
What investors need to do is make sure their actual allocations match their long-term goals, she said. “A long-term diversified portfolio has proven to be a great form of retirement savings for most Americans.”
Certainly, times have changed and there is much to consider, especially if an accelerated retirement is in your future.
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