- Emerging Market Policy Makers Scramble To Tame Soaring Food Inflation As Unrest Looms
Emerging Market Policy Makers Scramble To Tame Soaring Food Inflation As Unrest Looms
SocGen’s market skeptic Albert Edwards pointed out last year why he started to panic about soaring food prices and how it may cause social unrest in emerging market economies. In July, Bloomberg acknowledged the same phenomenon, and now they point out politicians are searching for policies to neuter the effect of surging costs to thwart unrest.
Pandemic-driven hunger is sweeping the world as global food prices jumped 33% in August from a year ago. According to United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization data, vegetable oil, grains, and meat prices are surging. Extreme weather, record-high shipping costs, soaring fertilizer costs, labor shortages, and port congestion are also aiding in increasing prices.
As a reminder to readers, emerging markets are more vulnerable to food insecurity since working poor spend a far greater share of their income on food than those in the developed world. This makes it easier for large price swings to cause political pressure on elected officials to tame inflation.
Politicians have one job and one job only: get re-elected. So amid a period of food inflation, it doesn’t come as a surprise that elected officials in India, Turkey, Europe, and other at-risk countries are requesting food wholesalers to slash prices and tweak trade rules to mitigate the impact on consumers.
Source: Bloomberg “Governments can intervene and commit to supporting lower consumer prices for a while,” said Cullen Hendrix, non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington-based think tank.
“But they can’t do it indefinitely.”
Bloomberg must have read the script from Edwards’ warning last year. They said, “food inflation spurred more than two dozen riots across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, contributing to the Arab Spring uprisings ten years ago.” Already, there have been riots in Cuba and South Africa, areas that have extreme wealth inequality and soaring food inflation.
Source: Bloomberg Alastair Smith, senior teaching fellow in global sustainable development at Warwick University in the U.K., said, “food is more expensive today than it has been for the vast majority of modern recorded history,” and that is a recipe for unrest.
Bloomberg lists some countries where politicians are preemptively adjusting policy to alleviate consumers:
- Tunisia: Crisis Management
The ground zero for the Arab Spring protests, Tunisia has raw memories when it comes to food and politics. Just a few days after dismissing the government and suspending parliament in July, President Kais Saied urged producers and retailers to slash prices of selected produce.
Red meat prices fell by about 10% almost instantly, with the nation’s main business lobby group Utica announcing unspecified cuts in prices for staples ranging from wheat flour, meat, to dairy, coffee and soft drinks. Fruit prices fell by as much as 20%, Tunisian media reported. Still, consumer prices overall rose at an annual rate of 6.2% in August.
Then there’s the prospect of subsidy cuts. A debate is raging about a long-planned shift to focus spending on the neediest citizens as Tunisia tries to secure a new financing program from the International Monetary Fund. That will likely lead to reduced support for items likes flour and sugar as well as electricity for a substantial number of households.
North African neighbors are also looking at subsidy cuts to help fix public finances. In Egypt, President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi called for a rise in bread prices. Algerian bakers have already hiked prices of subsidized bread in an act of defiance amid a shortage of wheat or shrunk the size of loaves. In Morocco, authorities announced in July a plan that will see cuts to subsidies on sugar and low-cost wheat flour starting next year, subject to the approval of parliament.
- Romania: Rethinking Trade
The cost of bread is not just political for grain-importing countries in North Africa and the Middle East. Romania is Europe’s top exporter this season, and yet prices have soared at a double-digit pace. Overall inflation is set to be the fastest in eight years in 2021.
The former eastern bloc country also has a dark history when it comes to feeding its population. Severe shortages were a hallmark of communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu before he was overthrown and executed in 1989.
Prime Minister Florin Citu’s government wants to cut dependence on imported processed food products as a way to reduce costs and narrow the trade deficit. He is already under pressure after the collapse of his coalition and faced a backlash over his answer to a question about the cost of a loaf of bread. “I don’t eat bread,” he answered.
Romania earmarked 760 million euros ($896 million) for investment in farm storage and processing, Agriculture Minister Adrian Oros said. “We’re one of the biggest exporters of cereals and yet we import frozen bread products,” he said. As of this month, the government is waiting for farmers to submit eligible projects to tap the money over the next two years. However, while Romania’s agricultural potential is one of the biggest in Europe, it so far failed to use EU money to improve its local production.
- India: Cutting Duties
With one of the largest malnourished populations, India is also dispersing more aid. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is distributing 20.4 million tons of free rice and wheat, spending 672.7 billion rupees ($9.1 billion) on extra grains subsidies to reach potentially more than 800 million people.
The country has also implemented trade measures to shield consumers from spikes in global prices. The government has cut duties on palm, soybean and sunflower oils as well as lentils.
India isn’t the only nation to use trade to intervene in the food market. War-torn Syria has tightened imports of items ranging from cheese to cashew nuts to safeguard its dwindling foreign currency reserves for wheat purchases. Argentina and Bolivia have curbed exports of beef to keep prices at home in check, as has drought-hit Kazakhstan, which forbade exports of oat, rye and forage and added quotas for forage wheat.
- Turkey: Market Action
In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s popularity has slumped because of the economy and cost of living. Food inflation accelerated for a fourth month in August, to 29%.
The government is making another attempt to control prices through threats of fines for businesses selling at elevated prices to an investigation into higher costs. Trade ministry officials are ordered to inspect allegations of excessive price increases in food products at wholesale markets in major Turkish cities, including Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir.
Erdogan’s government is also working on some legislative changes to curb food inflation. From October, fresh fruit and vegetables that may have been wasted on farms will be brought to an online market, and an early weather warning system will be put in place to spot potential supply shocks. There’s also the prospect of tax incentives and more trade measures. Turkey removed import duties on grains and lentils on Sept. 8.
- Russia: Losing Battle
The world’s top grains exporter shows the limitation of adjusting trade rules to curb prices. Russia introduced a wheat export tax in February, but it’s also paying with a loss of market share. The nation’s wheat is no longer as competitive, derailing exports to Egypt, one of its biggest customers.
At home, the measures haven’t helped curb food inflation, either. It’s hovering at a five-year high. Domestic wheat prices jumped in August to levels typically not seen this time of year as farmers and traders were reluctant to sell.
If food inflation remains persistent and not “transitory,” measures to tame inflation may become exhausted, and unrest could follow. Perhaps, what happened in Cuba and South Africa is a taste for what’s to come.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/16/2021 – 02:45 - A Pandemic Of Authoritarianism…
A Pandemic Of Authoritarianism…
Authored by Alastair Crooke via The Strategicd Culture Foundation,
What we see is an attempt to impose an idealised technical managerialism onto a complex, rather than pursue real solutions to problems…
Change happens quickly and often unpredictably.
Yet the unpredictable part seemingly is all about physics.
Imagine, dropping one grain of sand after another onto a table. A pile soon develops. Eventually, just one grain starts an avalanche. Most of the time, it’s a small one. But sometimes the pile just slides and disintegrates entirely.
Well, in 1987, three physicists began to play the sand pile game in their lab, seeking an answer to what it is that triggers the typical avalanche? After a huge number of tests, they found there is no typical number of grains that does it.
To find out why such unpredictability should show up in their sand pile game, the physicists next coloured it according to its steepness. Where it was relatively flat and stable, they coloured it green; where steep and, in avalanche terms, ‘ready to go’, they coloured it red.
They found that at the outset, the pile looked mostly green, but that, as the pile grew, the green became infiltrated with ever more red. With more grains, the scattering of red danger fingers grew until a dense skeleton of red instability ran through the pile. Here then was a clue to its peculiar behaviour: a grain falling on a red spot can, by domino-like action, cause sliding at other nearby red spots.
Afghanistan was intended to be a showcase for western technical managerialism – an empirical petri-dish in which to prove the historical inevitability of technocracy. Its doctrine held that free markets somehow obviated the need for politics; that big data and ‘expert’ managerialism in markets (in markets extended to ‘everything’, that is), were the crux to re-setting the world in a better way (i.e. the Build Back Better meme). It was, in a word, postulated on data predictability.
Existential political and social questions in this doctrine however, were to be nuanced through ‘Third Wayism’ (i.e. left unsolved – or fudged with easy answers, and easy money).
Or … ‘regulated’ into compliance. The answer to social problematics was Cloud Computing of mass data. With enough input on past human choices, it is believed that experts can precisely predict human behaviour, which then can be ‘nudged’ in the direction that our élites wish it to go. Nudge behavioural psychology, of course, is about control – not active thinking.
Yet unpredictably, this ‘world class’ managerial team in Kabul, so consumed by the notion of technocracy and mass data management, produced a project so rotten and corrupt (gaming the system) that it collapsed in eleven days.
Many Americans and Europeans have barely recovered from the shock, and remain in denial.
So, back to the sand pile: When the red spots come to riddle the sand pile, the consequences of the next grain become fiendishly unpredictable, the physicists discovered. It might trigger only a few tumblings, or it might instead set off a cataclysmic chain reaction involving millions. The sand pile seemed to have configured itself into a hypersensitive and peculiarly unstable condition, in which the next falling grain could trigger a response of any size whatsoever.
Physics is saying we have systemic instability at a certain point of accumulation. Our technocrats deny it, and therefore will be unable to foresee even such a possibility. Their creed is the model.
There are many subtleties and twists in the story, but the basic message is simple: The peculiar and exceptionally unstable organization of the critical state does indeed seem to explain why our highly complex world, at large, seems so susceptible to unpredictable upheavals. So much for AI and big data’s predictions – In the end, it was the landing of the Taliban ‘red grain’ that triggered an unpredicted, lightning cascade.
The question must be: Will this trigger any chain reaction?
Maybe not, yet there are several other ‘fingers of instability’ in the western sand pile which should be coloured ‘grain red’, and – judged in avalanche terms – may be poised to cascade.
One such is the ‘vaccination’ (or gene therapy): The mRNA ‘vaccine’ doesn’t stop infection, nor does it stop the spread of the virus. A fully vaccinated person can catch the virus and spread it to others. There’s new evidence that double-vaxxed individuals build up huge viral loads in their noses and sinuses, causing them to become super-spreaders, and infect others. The unvaccinated therefore, have as much to fear in terms of catching the disease from the vaccinated as the other way around.
Israel is providing a useful case study in the effectiveness – or lack thereof – of vaccines. Israel is one of the most heavily vaxxed countries in the world, with nearly 80% of the population fully vaccinated and almost 100% of the elderly. But now Israel is experiencing a massive increase in infections (and of serious cases), mainly among the fully vaxxed.
There are ample reasons not to receive countless millions of mRNA spike-proteins into one’s circulatory system – including being recovered from Covid, and having stronger antibody protection than the vaccinated. Yet, the latter are being treated as lepers. And governments, like that of PM Draghi in Italy, continue trying to impose ever stringent vaccine mandates and other forms of authoritarian control. ‘Pandemic authoritarianism’ will do nothing to slow the spread of the disease. It may even adversely repercuss – as it has in Israel – to create a graver problem. What it will do however, is to tear an already tense society apart – particularly when set against the background of deteriorating economies.
It is all reminiscent of the managerialist control efforts of an earlier ‘war’ (the equally failed) Great War On Terror, launched in the wake of 9/11, when a different, yet supposedly, ‘morally justified’ form of mass public control and surveillance was instituted – with the wider, awkward facts of counter-terrorism policy simply edited out from an already anxiety-ridden and de-sensitised audience.
Today, there is an ongoing debate about whether we are going to ‘beat’ Covid in the way the general public conceives of these things. Scientists – not the ones you hear most from – always made clear that vaccines would not stop Covid in its tracks if, like other similar such viruses, the latter mutated into something more dangerous, and transmissible.
The latter would constitute a variant which vaccination might actually accelerate, in a process known as antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) (on which the jury is still out). There is a popular misconception that – at some critical threshold of vaccination – Covid just ‘goes away’. The science however, (Draghi aside) suggests that a happy outcome arguably will only happen were new variants to become milder, like a ‘flu.
In Afghanistan, where a ‘managerialist’ Pentagon had for 20 years, until the very eleventh hour, one General after another, repeating the mantra lie that all was fine: Plenty of ‘progress’ evident in Afghanistan. ‘Progress’ always was there – until it wasn’t. Until the state’s collapse. It was in essence a defeat driven by data addiction, at the expense of the ‘real’.
So, in this other ‘field’ of Covid, we find the similar approach: Vaccine ‘progress’ will be achieved, if not with two, then three, and now four shots (in Israel) – until it isn’t. And with that, another ‘grain’ will settle on a red finger of instability.
This issue is doubly pertinent, because just as Covid is not ‘sorted’, neither is the economy. Anyone with a smattering of economics, might have also seen in advance that QE would never achieve its key goals. It is the quintessence of high tech (financial) managerialism. Central banks may keep saying they have achieved their goals (like the Generals calling ‘progress’ in Afghanistan), but the slump in productivity and the rise in inflation, and the shift to a reductive gig economy, all make it abundantly clear this is wishful thinking. It seems, we are now told that only trillion-dollar fiscal spends can halt the rot … Or, like vaccines, potentially with more and more shots, though possible ADE makes infections increase. Again, real solutions are edited out.
The Telegraph’s International Business Editor, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, sees another red-grain finger of instability running through the sand pile:
“Germany’s long-simmering anger with the European Central Bank (ECB) is again coming to the boil. It is hard to justify perennial [QE] and negative rates when German inflation is near 4pc – and rising. Political realities are forcing the ECB … to prepare for bond tapering sooner than it wants … in order to head off a bust-up with Europe’s anchor power [Germany].
“[This means] it will have to start pulling away the shield that has protected the high-debt Club Med states from market forces for almost seven years, and that has conveniently covered their entire borrowing requirements under the cloak of “monetary policy”. It is this monetary tightening in conjunction with parallel moves by the U.S. Federal Reserve that poses the chief risk to overheated global asset markets, not the virus’ Delta variant.
What is different this time [from past German grumblings], is that inflation can be felt everywhere – gefühlte Inflation – and parts of the German economy are patently overheating … German irritation should not be underestimated: The German Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) this week published an extraordinary paper, more or less alleging that ECB governors from the high-debt states are exploiting QE in order to bail out their own insolvent governments – and doing so in violation of EU treaty law”.
Events are nearing the point where Germany must either challenge this process, or accept that it has lost control of the Euro, and together with other northern ‘frugal’ Euro-states, pull out.
The ramifications deriving from the paradigmatic blow given by the Taliban to the Western technocratic vision; to Europe at its sudden discovery that America does not have Europe’s back; to inflation felt everywhere; to the QE impasse (that interest rates above 2% would kill the western economy); to geopolitical rejection of the western liberal model – arguably all these run through what happens next with Covid, and the mass resort to the imposition of ‘virtuous’ authoritarianism.
There is, in the end, nothing more than one common single thread running through all these fingers of instability: It is the attempt to impose an idealised technical managerialism onto a complex, critical-state reality, rather than pursue real solutions to problems – and the resort to behavioural control psychology to conceal the rot beneath, and compel compliance.
So, we are now poised at a critical state of what Paul McCulley calls ‘stable disequilibrium’ – where all actors work to maximize their personal outcome, and reduce their exposure to fingers of instability. But the longer the game runs, says McCulley, the more likely it is to end in a violent avalanche, as the fingers of instability have more time to build, and, eventually, the state of stable disequilibrium goes critical.
Which finger goes first? Unpredictability again – any grain falling on a red spot can, by domino-like action, cause sliding at other nearby red spots.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/16/2021 – 02:00 - Brandon Smith: How States And Communities Can Fight Back Against Biden's COVID Tyranny
Brandon Smith: How States And Communities Can Fight Back Against Biden’s COVID Tyranny
Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,
A war is coming. I have heard it argued that this war must be avoided; that it is “exactly what the establishment wants.” I disagree. I think globalists like those at the World Economic Forum certainly want enough chaos to provide cover for the implementation of their global “Reset” agenda, but they don’t want a full blown rebellion. They only want events in which the outcome is controllable or predictable – They do not want a massive organized resistance that might surprise them.
Ultimately it doesn’t matter because the war is already at our doorstep. A person has two choices: Fight or be enslaved. There is no third option. There is no walking away. There is no hiding from it and there is no passive solution to it.
Joe Biden’s recent declaration of a federal level nationwide vaccine mandate has all but ensured that conflict is inevitable. Why? Because it is the first major step towards a two-tier society in which the unvaxxed are cut out of the economy. The next step? Forced vaccinations under threat of fines and imprisonment, the threat of confiscation of one’s children, or vaccination at the barrel of a gun. Needless to say, this was not at all surprising to me. In December of last year I published an article titled ‘If You Thought 2020 Was Bad, Watch What Happens In 2021’, stating that:
“There will then be a major push to require medical passports proving a person is not infected to enter into any public place. This means submission to 24/7 contact tracing or getting a new vaccine whenever ordered to. Basically, your life will be under the total control of state or federal governments if you want to have any semblance of returning to your normal life…..New mutations of COVID-19 will be conveniently found every year from now on, meaning the public will have to get new vaccinations constantly, and medical tyranny will never go away unless people take an aggressive stand.”
I have also mentioned often in the past that Biden WOULD institute federal level vaccines mandates and possibly even Level 4 lockdowns. We are not to the point yet of lockdowns by executive order, but the Biden Administration is trying to dive headlong into the control agenda with an executive order stating that all businesses in the US with 100 employees or more must require those employees to provide proof of vaccination or demand employees show a negative covid test weekly (which will be impossible for most people). In other words, the Orwellian rise of vaccine passports has officially begun in the US.
Not only was Biden’s announcement an utter violation of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, it was also condescending and vitriolic towards Americans who refuse to become guinea pigs for the experimental and untested vaccines. Biden suggested that the establishment “Has been patient, but their patience is wearing thin.”
I have to say, Biden is in for a shock if he thinks we care.
I can’t cover every single lie and logical fallacy in Biden’s speech because that is not the purpose of this article. I can only once again point out some very basic logical conclusions and pieces of scientific evidence which debunk most of Biden’s nonsensical blather. Since he seems to be so interested in why we are “hesitant”, let’s go through this ONE MORE TIME, shall we…
1) The median death rate of covid according to almost every single medical study and every official government tally remains at 0.26% of the infected. Given that around 40% of all covid deaths happen among people in nursing homes with preexisting conditions, it is likely that the actual death rate is much lower. But let’s just say that it is in fact 0.26% – Why is there any need to impose draconian medical controls over a virus that 99.7% of people will easily survive? Why not create a support fund for the 0.26% of people that are truly at risk so they can stay home while the rest of us get on with regular life?
2) Throughout the course of the pandemic in the US the largest percentage of hospital ICU beds that have been occupied by covid patients is 17%. That is the PEAK of covid in the ICUs. For the past few months the percentage has been closer to an average of 8% or less. This is according to the government’s own stats, which the CDC now buries instead of posting openly for easy viewing by the public. So, when the corporate media or Biden claims that the ICUs are “overwhelmed” by covid patients, this is a lie
A new nationwide study of electronic hospital records on covid patients also shows nearly half of covid “hospitalizations” are actually people that are asymptomatic, not deathly sick people as the media often portrays.
3) The experimental mRNA covid vaccines have NO long term testing to prove their safety over the long term. At least none that has ever been released to the public. The average vaccine is tested for 10-15 years before it is approved and released for use in humans. The covid vaccines were rolled out in mere months. Again, there is NO PROOF whatsoever that the covid vaccines are safe in the long term, and there are already a number of examples of lack of safety in the short term. Why would we trust an experimental protein spike vax that has nowhere near the same testing history as the majority of other normal vaccines?
4) Multiple studies in nations with high rates of vaccination, including a recent study from Israel, prove that there is no such thing as a “pandemic of the unvaccinated.” In fact, 60% of infection cases in Israel are actually fully vaccinated people. Furthermore, Israel has found that vaccinated people are 13-27 times more likely to get infected than people with natural immunity, and they are 8 times more likely to end up in ICU.
These findings reinforce data released a month ago out of Massachusetts, where 5100 covid infections were fully vaccinated people and 80 of them died. In other words, the vaccines don’t work so great, especially when compared to natural immunity.
5) Data from the Public Health England and the NHS shows that the vaccinated and unvaccinated have almost identical rate of infectiousness. In other words, a vaccinated person is almost as likely to give you covid as an unvaxxed person.
Now, let’s present some rational questions in the face of this irrational covid circus of fear:
If the experimental vaccines actually work, then how are unvaccinated people a threat to vaccinated people and why should unvaccinated people be forced to take the jab?
If the vaccines don’t work, then, again, why should ANYONE be forced to take an untested and unreliable vax?
Slow-Joe argues that the vaccinations are “safe and effective” against covid, but only seconds later in the same breath he claims that “unvaxxed people are a threat to vaccinated people.” He promotes the lie that this is a “pandemic of the unvaccinated”, then says the vaccinated are in danger. Even a child could pick up on the inherent contradictions in Biden’s claims.
As always, the issue of “mutations” is brought up in defense of 100% vaccination campaigns. But if “mutations” are the concern, then why isn’t the government addressing the fact that a vaccinated population is just as likely if not more likely to create mutant variants of a virus when compared to unvaccinated people? Why are the unvaxxed being singled out as the supposed menace to society?
The biggest question is – Why should anyone submit to covid mandates at all? Mandates are not laws, they are color of law restrictions without legal merit. The bottom line? Unconstitutional orders are not to be followed. This leads us to the state and local strategies for fighting back against the federal passport mandates. Let’s get into it:
Simply Ignore The Mandates And Carry On With Life As Normal
How does Biden plan to enforce these mandates on businesses? If they refuse to go along to get along, what can he do about it? Who would he send to threaten or punish these businesses? Who would be dumb enough to follow that order? Does he plan to send the IRS, the FBI, the Health Department? Someone has to do it, right? And what happens when a business is threatened and a crowd of conservatives in the community come to its defense? What happens when local and state law enforcement get in the way of federal agencies? What is Biden going to do about that? Answer – Nothing, at least not anything direct.
The Indirect Method Works Both Ways
If Biden is confronted with solid resistance to the passports in communities and states, there is really only one path he has left, which is indirect pressure through economic penalties. Biden WILL attempt to force states to comply by cutting of federal funds and tax dollars. This idea might terrify some people because there is a percentage of the population in every state that relies on federal EBT and other programs for their survival. However, the federal government can be punished in the same way just as easily by the states. Let me explain…
Confiscate Federal Lands And Resources
Any state that is cut off from its rightful share of tax dollars can easily claim domain over federal lands and the resources on them. It is the EPA restrictions on these lands that have been unfairly used to kill numerous industries across the country. With proper management, these resources can be used to revitalize state economies and offset any federal funds lost.
Offer Businesses Federal Tax Exemptions If They Relocate
Red states can also punish the federal government by stopping IRS tax collections within their borders and turning the tables on Biden. Numerous businesses would be itching to escape Biden’s high tax rates and would bring jobs and wealth into red states, leaving the conformist blue states in the dust.
Boot Federal Agencies Out Of The State Or County
Local law enforcement is refusing to enforce mandates in many places, which is a good start, but eventually sheriffs and communities may have to remove federal presence entirely in order to stop violations if civil liberties.
Offer Safe Havens For Military Personnel That Go AWOL To Avoid Forced Vaccination
A large percentage of soldiers say they will not comply with federal vax requirements and this is completely understandable given the evidence I just presented above. It would be to the benefit of red states to offer protection for soldiers that leave the military based on the principle of health autonomy. Perhaps they could even help in forming state militias…
Reduce Restrictions On Medical Treatment Facilities – Start Vax Free Clinics
30% to 40% of medical professional depending on the state say they will not take the experimental vax, and they are willing to lose their jobs in the process. Why not get these people with valuable medical skills to come to red states and counties and let them set up clinics outside of suffocating federal regulations? This may even reduce the prices on medical care in many cases.
Form Trade Relationships With Other Free States
Conservatives and constitutionalists need to organize and unify, and the best way to do this is to start with trade. It is likely that Biden will attempt to interfere with imports and the supply chain when it comes to red states, so they will need to stick together economically in order to prevent disruptions to the availability of goods. We need to rethink how states interact with each other and build more independent production and trade instead of relying on overseas suppliers. We will also need commodity backed banks with commodity backed currencies, because the buying power of the US dollar isn’t going to last much longer anyway.
Unify For Defense
If Biden and the globalists continue to push for medical tyranny in states and counties that do not want it, there will eventually be calls for secession. There will also be attempts by blue states to restrict the travel of people from red states using covid passport checkpoints. We all know this is coming. All conservative counties should be organizing localized security through public militias, and state governments should be thinking along these lines as well. If there’s one thing authoritarians HATE more than anything else it is suffering the existence of free neighbors. They will try to stop us from being free, and we must be ready to answer their violence with our own.
Finally, I would like to speak to Joe Biden directly, since Joe was so keen on personally addressing us:
Joe, let me clarify this in the simplest terms possible so that you can grasp it – You are not important. You are not a lawmaker and you are not a ruler, you are an employee of the American people, that is all your are supposed to be. And though you may wish to be a dictator, that’s not going to happen. We will not allow it. I realize that you are a puppet and that your globalist handlers make most of your decisions and write most of your statements for you, so you can pass this message on to them as well: WE WILL NOT COMPLY. It’s not going to happen. Get used to the idea.
We are peaceful people and always have been. Our tolerance of your trespasses thus far is proof of that. But do not mistake our peacefulness as weakness. If you keep coming after us, you will regret it. We will teach you an important lesson in humility; a lesson you and your elitist friends sorely need and will not enjoy. This is a promise.
* * *
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Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 23:40 - These Will Be The 20 Fastest Growing Jobs In The Next Decade
These Will Be The 20 Fastest Growing Jobs In The Next Decade
The employment landscape is constantly shifting. While agricultural jobs played a big role in the 19th century, Visual Capitalist’s Jenna Ross points out that a large portion of U.S. jobs today are in administration, sales, or transportation. So how can job seekers identify the fastest growing jobs of the future?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects there will be 11.9 million new jobs created from 2020 to 2030, an overall growth rate of 7.7%. However, some jobs have a growth rate that far exceeds this level. In this graphic, we use BLS data to show the fastest growing jobs—and fastest declining jobs—and how much they each pay.
The Top 20 Fastest Growing Jobs
We used the dataset that excludes occupations with above average cyclical recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, jobs such as motion picture projectionists, ticket takers, and restaurant cooks were removed. Once these exclusions were made, the resulting list reflects long-term structural growth.
Here are the fastest growing jobs from 2020 to 2030, along with the number of jobs that will be created and the median pay for the position.
Wind turbine service technicians have the fastest growth rate, with solar photovoltaic (solar panel) installers taking the third slot. The rapid growth is driven by demand for renewable energy. However, because these are relatively small occupations, the two roles will account for about 11,000 new jobs collectively.
Nine of the top 20 fastest growing jobs are in healthcare or related fields, as the baby boomer population ages and chronic conditions are on the rise. Home health and personal care aides, who assist with routine healthcare tasks such as bathing and feeding, will account for over one million new jobs in the next decade. This will be almost 10% of all new jobs created between 2020 and 2030. Unfortunately, these workers are the lowest paid on the list.
Computer and math-related jobs are also expected to see high growth. The BLS expects strong demand for IT security and software development, partly because of the increase in people that are working from home.
The Top 20 Fastest Declining Jobs
Structural changes in the economy will cause some jobs to decline quite quickly. Here are the top 20 jobs where employment is expected to decline the fastest over the next decade.
Eight of the top 20 declining jobs are in office and administrative support. This could be cause for concern, given this category currently makes up almost 13% of employment in the U.S.—the largest of any major category. Jobs involved in the production of goods and services, as well as sales jobs, are also seeing declines.
In all cases, automation is likely the biggest culprit. For example, software that automatically converts audio to text will reduce the need for typists.
While the fastest declining jobs typically fall within the lower salary range, there is one outlier. Nuclear power reactor operators, who earn a salary of over $100,000, will see employment decline at a steep rate of -33%. No new nuclear plants have opened since the 1990s, and nuclear power faces steep competition from renewable energy sources.
Warning: Education Required
As the composition of employment shifts, it eliminates some jobs and creates others. For instance, while production jobs are declining, new opportunities exist for “computer numerically controlled tool programmers.” These workers develop programs to control the automated equipment that processes materials.
However, while many of the fastest growing jobs are higher paying, they typically also require advanced education.
Seventeen of the top 20 fastest growing jobs have a median salary higher than $41,950, which is the median salary for all jobs in total. Most also require post-secondary schooling. These opportunities are replacing jobs that only required a high school diploma.
With tuition costs soaring relative to inflation, this could create challenges for displaced workers or young people entering the workforce.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 23:20 - FDA Says Authorized COVID-19 Vaccines Still Effective, Boosters May Not Be Needed
FDA Says Authorized COVID-19 Vaccines Still Effective, Boosters May Not Be Needed
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Wednesday said that agency-authorized COVID-19 vaccines currently provide protection against death and severe disease and may not require additional boosters, coming after vaccine maker Pfizer submitted data saying that its vaccine’s efficacy is eroding over time.
In findings released online, the FDA analyzed data submitted by Pfizer as part of their request to authorize a booster shot, or a third dose, of the vaccine to individuals aged 16 and older in the United States.
The agency did not make a definitive statement on whether to support booster shots at this time, adding that regulators have not reviewed the available data.
“There are many potentially relevant studies, but FDA has not independently reviewed or verified the underlying data or their conclusions,” the FDA wrote (pdf) in a 23-page document published online.
“Some of these studies, including data from the vaccination program in Israel, will be summarized during the September 17, 2021 [Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee] meeting.”
Some studies, they said, have indeed shown the Pfizer mRNA vaccine has waning efficacy against the Delta variant or symptomatic infection. However, other studies have not, the FDA said.
“Overall, data indicate that currently U.S.-licensed or authorized COVID-19 vaccines still afford protection against severe COVID-19 disease and death in the United States,” FDA researchers wrote.
Biden administration officials late last month said in a news conference that they are aiming for a Sept. 20 rollout for boosters, although they cautioned that their plan is contingent on whether the doses are approved by the FDA. A panel of outside observers will review the FDA’s report on Friday and will analyze the Pfizer analysis and other information to determine whether boosters are needed for the general population.
If the panel recommends boosters, the FDA could distribute the doses within a few days.
In August, the FDA fully approved the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for people aged 16 and older. Vaccines made by Moderna, which uses mRNA technology like Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson are still being distributed under the agency’s emergency use authorization.
During its presentation to the FDA, which was uploaded on the agency’s website, Pfizer argued that data from the United States and Israel suggests its mRNA vaccine efficacy is dropping over time, warranting the need for boosters.
“Real-world data from Israel and the United States suggest that rates of breakthrough infections are rising faster in individuals who were vaccinated earlier in the vaccination campaigns compared to those who have been vaccinated more recently,” Pfizer said.
For its conclusion, the German-based pharmaceutical giant cited a study from healthcare giant Kaiser Permanente that suggested protection against COVID-19 infection dropped from 88 percent in the first month of getting the second dose to 47 percent after five months of inoculation.
Earlier this week, a study that included two departing FDA officials said they do not recommend booster shots and said that possible side effects from them could outweigh the benefits.
“Even if boosting were eventually shown to decrease the medium-term risk of serious disease, current vaccine supplies could save more lives if used in previously unvaccinated populations,” the authors wrote.
Pfizer has not responded yet to a request for comment.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 23:01 - Tesla Repurposes Native American Casino To Build Showroom, Skirt New Mexico Auto Sales Laws
Tesla Repurposes Native American Casino To Build Showroom, Skirt New Mexico Auto Sales Laws
Nothing says ESG investing and furthering humanitarian causes more than exploiting Native American land to open up a car showroom and duck local regulations. Just ask Tesla.
The automaker reportedly has opened a sales, service, and delivery center on Native American land in New Mexico in order to get around legislation that bars automakers from selling vehicles directly to consumers, according to a new report from Insider.
Nambé Pueblo in Santa Fe County is exempt from the law and, as a result, consumers can test Teslas on-site and owners can bring their vehicles there for service. New Mexico has 1,846 registered Teslas, with 361 in Santa Fe County, according to the Santa Fe New Mexican.
It is the first Tesla delivery and service center in the state. Prior to it opening, residents of Santa Fe would have to take their vehicles to El Paso, Texas, which is about 300 miles away.
Tesla repurposed a defunct casino to open the center.
“We are proud to be the first tribe to have Tesla on Indian lands,” Phillip Perez, the governor of Nambé Pueblo, said. He continued: “It was a cooperative effort between Tesla and the pueblo. It didn’t take long to come to terms. We are doing our part to protect Mother Earth,” the Santa Fe New Mexican reported.
A New Mexico-based Tesla owners club has been clamoring for a sales and service center in the state since 2015.
The center “changes everything for owners” and is a “gigantic thing for New Mexico,” Brian Dear, President of the club, said. He continued: “The comparison up until now is to get your car fixed, you had to think of hotel reservations and possibly a multiday stay. You didn’t get a reservation for Thursday or Friday because they may not get to your car and then you would have to stay into the next week.”
Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino, D-Albuquerque, was critical of the current laws in place prohibiting direct sales. He told the SFNM: “These are licenses to print money. If you have the Ford dealership in Santa Fe or Albuquerque or Las Cruces, you’re guaranteed to have a nice living because [customers] have to come to you; they can’t go anywhere else. It’s not exactly a monopoly because there could be two dealerships in one community, but they limit the franchises so that they maintain highly profitable relationships with their franchisors.”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 22:40 - Evergrande Suspends Trading In All Bonds
Evergrande Suspends Trading In All Bonds
Earlier today we pointed out that in what can (obviously) only be a remarkable coincidence, China’s largest, and most systematically important real estate developer, China Evergrande (and its $300+ billion in debt), collapsed on the 13th anniversary of Lehman’s bankruptcy filing, when Beijing told Evergrande’s creditor banks that the insolvent company, which recently hired Houlihan Lokey as bankruptcy advisor, would not pay interest on its debt next week, nor would it repay principal, in effect blessing the coming default.
And yet there was some trace of hope, because as Forte Securities trader Keith Temperton said “The Asian banks will get hit hard if there’s a default, but then there will be a 10-year recovery process. The market’s getting a hang of it. The way they’ve managed the news flow seems quite clever. They haven’t let a swathe of bad news at once” giving investors and creditors some hope that the money could still miraculously reappear.
Not any more: in an exchange filing on Thursday, Evergrande’s main unit (onshore real estate) said that trading in all of its onshore bonds would be suspended on Sept 16 to ensure fair information disclosure following a downgrade to A from AA (which in China is viewed as the lowest investment grade rating) by China Chengxin International, to wit:
In order to ensure fair information disclosure and protect the interests of investors, after the company’s application, all existing corporate bonds of Evergrande Real Estate will be suspended for one trading day from the opening of the market on September 16, 2021, and will be opened on September 17, 2021.
Since the market resumes trading, the above-mentioned bond trading methods will be adjusted from the date of resumption of trading. Among them: (1) The trading methods of “15 Evergrande 03”, “19 Evergrande 01”, and “19 Evergrande 02” have been adjusted to only adopt quotation, inquiry and agreement trading methods since the date of resumption of trading. Shanghai Branch of Registration and Settlement Co., Ltd. provides settlement by transaction; (2) “20 Evergrande 01”, “20 Evergrande 02”, “20 Evergrande 03”, “20 Evergrande 04”, “20 Evergrande 05” The trading methods of “21 Evergrande 01” and “21 Evergrande 01” have been adjusted to only adopt the negotiated block trading method since the resumption of trading, and the original net price pricing method will be maintained.
The press release ends with the hilarious “Investors are kindly requested to pay attention to investment risks.” Well… we sure can be certain they are paying attention now.
It wasn’t clear why the company would need to suspend trading in all bonds for an entire day to “ensure” that everyone was aware that the company’s bonds were no longer rated as investment grade in China (they should be rated as default but we’ll cross that bridge in time) when just a simple press release would suffice.
Instead, what the company did say is that the bonds would resume trading on Sept. 17, and the trading method for some of the securities will change to only allow block trades even as the previous pricing method will remain.
Despite the company’s promise that its bonds will resume trading, we somehow doubt it and instead we expect that in the coming months, the frozen bonds will be equitized as part of China’s largest ever debt for equity exchange. Come to think of it, the rest of the market doesn’t believe it either with Evergrande stock plunging another 7% (Zeno’s paradox means the company can keep falling at double digits every day in perpetuity) and as of Thursday Evergrande’s only traded security was at the lowest price since Oct 2011, on its way to 0.
Meanwhile, as the book on Evergrande’s story closes, the company’s imminent default and the sudden collapse in China’s property market which as we noted last night saw a 90% crash in land sales values in August…
… have led to a dire outlook for the nation’s developers and their creditors. As Bloomberg’s Richard Frost writes, Country Garden, the nation’s largest developer by sales, plunged 16% in the past two days, while Gemdale slumped 12% as a gauge of property shares in Shanghai tumbled almost 5% in the period, with valuations firmly below book value. Following the news, Guangzhou R&F Properties drops 10.8% to the lowest since Dec. 2008 while Greentown China -9.1%. At this point, one can safely call it a crisis.
As contagion spread, risk is also hitting banks whose shares are suffering their fastest selloff in seven weeks. Furthermore, as discussed yesterday ahead of the coming Evergrande debt crisis, lenders in China are accepting the highest rates in four years to swap their dollars for yuan, a sign they may be preparing for what Mizuho calls a “liquidity squeeze in crisis mode.”
The pain will only get worse. China’s government is unlikely to ease up on its tough curbs toward the property market given its current priorities of promoting common prosperity and deterring excessive risk-taking, according to Macquarie. The property sector will be a “main growth headwind” for next year, although policy makers may loosen restrictions to defend 5% GDP expansion, Macquarie analysts wrote in a Wednesday note.
Adding to the pain, contagion concerns from Evergrande is making it more difficult for Chinese developers to refinance, despite a “critical” need to do so, according to Citigroup. Bond issuance is trickier onshore due to lower demand, and offshore due to increasing costs, they wrote in a Wednesday note. As we showed earlier this week, yields on China’s high-yield dollar have exploded rose to 13.7%, the highest since last year’s March market meltdown.
Finally, always last to the party, the rating agencies chimed in, with Fitch saying that smaller banks exposed to Evergrande or other weaker developers may face “significant” increases in non-performing loans in the event of a default, while S&P downgraded Evergrande deeper into junk, saying the developer’s liquidity and funding access “are shrinking severely.”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 22:20 - Canada's Conservatives Are Using Soaring Inflation To Help Defeat Trudeau
Canada’s Conservatives Are Using Soaring Inflation To Help Defeat Trudeau
As Liberal PM Justin Trudeau sees his chances of winning another term during the upcoming snap election dwindle, his opponents, the Conservatives, have successfully used Canada’s runaway inflation as a cudgel to slam Trudeau and his Liberals for mismanaging the economy. They’re calling it “Liberal inflation”, and it looks like the term is sticking.
According to Bloomberg, affordability has been one of the top issues ahead of the snap vote which is set for Sept. 20. Rising costs for housing, cars and gasoline have greatly benefited conservatives while accusing the incumbent Liberal government of stoking inflation with its debt-financed spending.
Trudeau’s campaign won’t be helped by a 4.1% inflation reading for August, the highest since 2003. The Conservatives pounced on the number as soon as it hit Wednesday morning.
“The numbers released today make it clear that under Justin Trudeau, Canadians are experiencing an affordability crisis,” Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole said in a statement.
While cost-of-living issues are a regular of feature of Conservative election campaigns, it’s become a central part of the narrative this year as the party seeks to take advantage of polls showing the issue is on voters’ minds. A recent survey by Abacus Data showed 38% of Canadians believe reducing their cost of living was a key factor impacting their vote, making it the top issue by far.
For many Canadians, inflation concerns are closely linked to housing affordability, which has worsened substantially over the last decade, but particularly since the start of the pandemic. Buying a home has gotten harder and more expensive almost everywhere in the country, not unlike the US.
To be sure, much of the criticism is hype – O’Toole’s party isn’t offering up many concrete solutions to ease price pressures. An obvious way to curtail inflation, for example, would be to curb government spending but the Conservative platform’s fiscal projections don’t differ that much from those put forward by the Liberals.
Many aspects of the inflationary pressures facing Canadians are part of a global trend. Choked up supply chains have led to shortages, while a lack of new supply has led to an explosion in housing prices.
Like their counterparts in the US, Canada’s Liberals continue to insist that the inflationary pressures are “transitory”.
And while they have tried to avoid talking about the issue, Trudeau was finally forced to mention it during a speech earlier this week.
“We recognize that families are concerned about affordability,” Trudeau said Wednesday when asked about the latest inflation reading at a campaign stop in Halifax, Nova Scotia. He added that his government would continue to support Canadians through the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.
There’s no question that this is making Trudeau politically vulnerable. The governing Liberals have been polling in low 30%-support levels for most of the campaign, well short of what would be required to gain majority control of the House of Commons, which was Trudeau’s goal when he called the “snap” election.
Instead, not unlike David Cameron’s Brexit gambit, we could see the decision backfire, restoring power to the Conservatives while shunting the Liberals back into the opposition.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 22:00 - An ESG Backfire Conundrum Is Triggering A Global Energy Crisis
An ESG Backfire Conundrum Is Triggering A Global Energy Crisis
By Larry McDonald, author of the Bear Traps Report
Ladies and Gentlemen, the VIX is up 20% since August 31 with stocks 2% off the highs and only 37 new highs on the NYSE Tuesday.
One thing is for sure: markets have stopped, at least for 2 weeks, going up on good news. Think CPI, soft in September (stocks sell-off), HOT CPI in June (stocks rip higher). This is meaningful. The market is pricing in two Bank of England rate hikes in 2022, 70+ hikes across Emerging Markets are expected over the next year and the Fed is still buying $120B a month of Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed Securities – all while promising no planned hikes until well into 2023-2024? The market is telling us the Fed will have a very hard time keeping up this sales pitch – especially with an ESG Backfire conundrum triggering a global energy crisis.
Dollar at Key Level
As we stressed last year in our commodity bull case, it is a Highly Orchestrated US Dollar Containment Strategy – let the other central banks lead this time. The fastest-growing emerging market countries – looking at the current rate hike path – see their expectations below. While the Fed still endlessly searches for “substantial progress” on inflation / jobs data: Looking out 12 Months – it is seventy-three 25bp hikes from EM central banks, twenty-four months: 101 hikes globally. Inflation risk is driving other central banks into pulling back accommodation, NOT the Fed so far. Unsustainable, the market is sending a message. We MUST listen.
Risk – Reward is Extremely Poor Short Term
With trouble on the way in Washington, pay-fors, debt ceiling, fiscal cliff – you are supposed to sell the S&P 500 here with a stop. The colossal divergence between Fed and RoW (rest of the world) central banks is unsustainable. The Fed desperately needs a fiscal boost, cannot afford a $1.5 to $2T fiscal cliff.
US Fiscal Deficits
- 2020: $3T
- 2021: $3T
- 2022: $1T???
“Pay-Fors” Piling Up
Ways and Means Committee – Pay Fors Piling Up – House Democrats this week are advancing through committee the tax provisions to pay for President Joe Biden’s economic agenda with the intention of completing work by Wednesday on “revenue raisers” worth some $2 trillion (Bloomberg), the media used to call these taxes.
S&P 500 New Highs – Smell to High Heaven
New 52 Week Highs – one of the lowest marks since May. It makes little sense to chase stocks near the highs with smelly data like this, risk-reward is poor.
Gas Black Swan in Europe
Dirt cheap natural gas has powered global manufacturing for a decade – NO more- ESG Backfire (see “Why One Bank Thinks ESG Could Trigger Hyperinflation”), colossal profit margin pressures – we count warnings from over 22 companies – GS now recommending gas consumers in Europe “protect themselves” from a winter black swan via buying out of the money calls – all after a 140% up move in gas prices.
S&P 500: 20 and 50 Day Moving Averages – 20 Day Break
When the S&P 500 has closed below the 20 day moving average, it has commonly led to tests of the 50 day moving average. The pattern worked once again on Tuesday, as the S&P 500 closed just above its 50 day after a selling-off throughout the day
Buy High – Do NOT Buy Low
Off 2% since August 20 – MSFT announced another $60b via buybacks, of course, they passed on the buybacks in Q2-Q3 last year with the stock at $180 in May 2020 ($303 today). Microsoft made its first corporate bond sale 12 years ago, now has $82B in debt, much issued in recent years, 10yrs ago MSFT (AAA at S&P) generated $24b in FCF, today it generates $56b/yr. over that period BBB yield went from 4.4% to 2.2%. net debt/equity negative every year. SPX companies repurchased close to $180B billion of shares in Q1 2021, +37% from Q4, and 2x the $90B in Q2 2020.. S&P 500 Buybacks are on pace $730B in 2021 vs $520B 2020 year-end.
S&P 500 Covid Wedge
The S&P 500 has been consolidating inside of a large wedge since the March 2020 bottom. Last week we broke below support and this week we have thus far failed at the same trend from below. 50 day support looks extra important, a gap-down below the 50 day overnight would be very bearish…
US 10 Year Yield
Pricing in a $2T fiscal cliff, bond investors are nervous – once the bill is passed in November, they will be sellers, uncertainty high next 45 days – US 10 year yields failed to break above the 1.38% level 3 times over the past months and are now falling below trend support after CPI inflation came-in relatively soft. In our view, inflation beneath the surface is more sustainable than the consensus believes.
Median Inflation Creeping Higher
“I like to look at inflation data in a median sense (so rather than having one crazy category drive it all, we look at the center of the distribution, across 82 categories, equally weighted). On this metric, this CPI number was not low (here shown in 12-month space). The broadening is really quite a bit more important than what used car etc prices do month to month.” – with Jens Nordvig
CPI Inflation Contribution
Delta Cooling Hot CPI Sectors: “Larry – So we have a CPI miss driven by drop in used cars, air fares, and hotels likely due to delta. Still gives enough room for Fed to delay rate hikes while talking up tapering, so delta normalization, global cases rolling over fairly hard, gets you a higher cpi trend looking forward.” CIO in CT.
We agree here.
Travel Impact on Soft CPI
“Global cases are plunging, nearly 6 billion jabs, if team Biden solves the covid problem, they have a colossal CPI problem.”
Large CPI miss drivers, travel, and services – Airline fares down 9.1% MoM due to Delta-v (Covid). The White House and the Transitory Message
The White House will sell transitory very hard, they need large fiscal.
“August CPI, most benign headline reading since January… but in a reversal from previous months the underlying trends were somewhat worse than the headline. The underlying trend many have focused on was about the same as previous months.”
“Larry, What’s the deal with OER only rising 0.25%? Moratoriums?” PM in NYC
OER Owners Equivalent Rent Lags Housing Prices
Although some expected a much larger jump in OER (Owners Equivalent Rent), the CPI component tends to lag housing prices. We see much higher OER (over 20% of CPI) in the coming months. The impact of the massive rise in US house prices has only just started to show up…
Watch the $10T
- Apple AAPL $2.5T
- Microsoft MSFT $2.3T
- Google GOOGL $1.9T
- Amazon AMZN $1.8T
- Facebook FB $1.1T
- Tesla TSLA $0.75T
*As of Q1 2021, 401(k) plans held an est $6.9T in assets, represented 1/5 of the $35T US retirement market. The Nasdaq 100 is worth $17-$18T vs. $1.5T in the XME Metals and Mining, XLE Energy ETFs combined.
Capital is Long Deflation Winners
In our view, once inflation PCE normalizes off insane YoY base effects at a HIGHER plain than prior decades, $2 to $4T will come out of the NDX, into inflation hedges such as commodity exposed equities. Core CPI is close to 4.30% vs 2.00% from 2016-2019, if the new level is 2.7% to 3.7% 2021-2014, there are trillions of dollars in the wrong place.
Bloomberg Commodity Index Surge
To put the current commodity price rally into some context: in more than 50 years of data, the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index has only settled above the current level during 20 torrid days between April and May 2011. One big difference between today and 2008 in commodity markets: policymakers and lawmakers have not (as yet) blamed hedge funds, speculators, and long-only funds for the price rally. And the CFTC hasn’t launched (yet) a nationwide investigation. And $6T in 2020-2021, 18% of GDP of fiscal deficits vs. $2T in 2009-2010 of 8% of GDP. Covid > Lehman.
Bloomberg Dollar Index
The soft CPI print means the Fed is less likely to be hawkish at the September meeting. The US Dollar is now falling below recent trend support. This is supportive for non-US risk assets and commodities.
The Fed continues to run QE at $120B per month with PPI at 8.3% and CPI at 5.3%. In 2019, the Fed cuts rates 3 times with unemployment at 3.5%. USD containment.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 21:40 - Propane Prices Soar As Inventory Concerns Mount Ahead Of Winter
Propane Prices Soar As Inventory Concerns Mount Ahead Of Winter
Spot propane prices at Mont Belvieu, Texas, have reached their highest levels since 2014 ahead of the winter season on fears of low inventory. Energy inflation could be problematic for commercial and residential users of the fuel that heats building structures and powers vehicles, gas grills, patio heaters, generators, among many other uses.
Propane is set up for a volatile ride this fall/winter season as supplies are about 20% below the five-year average for this time of year. The most recent U.S. Energy Department data shows inventories of around 70.8 million barrels.
The propane surge also comes from the rise in natural gas and crude prices. Propane is a byproduct of natgas production and petroleum-refining processes. About 80% of U.S. propane is a byproduct from natgas.
At Mont Belvieu, Texas, spot propane prices are up more than 60% this year, reaching levels not seen since 2014. Energy inflation will cause headaches for the 5% of U.S. households that heavily rely on the fuel that heats their homes.
Propane prices are coming to an inflection point in terms of seasonality.
Taking all of this into account, one can only hope the energy crisis in Europe of low natural gas supplies and record-high prices doesn’t spread to the U.S.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 21:20 - Rebutting Paul Krugman On The "Austrian" Pandemic
Rebutting Paul Krugman On The “Austrian” Pandemic
Authored by Robert Murphy via The Mises Institute,
In a recent column for the New York Times, the world’s most famous Keynesian, Paul Krugman, attacked Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT). In addition to repeating his decades-old claim that ABCT suffers from an internal contradiction, as well as his charge that the Austrians misdiagnosed the 2008 financial crisis, in his latest piece Krugman argued that the 2020 pandemic really was a “reallocation shock” along Austrian lines. Yet even here, Krugman claims, the Austrian prescription of laissez-faire is dead wrong: as a new paper presented at the Jackson Hole monetary conference allegedly demonstrates, we need easy money from the Fed in order to rearrange labor without causing needless unemployment.
It won’t surprise mises.org readers to learn that I disagree strongly with Krugman’s column. He makes some casual remarks that mislead his readers on the history of the 1930s, but more seriously, he misunderstands what ABCT actually says. This confusion leads him to reject the Austrian view as illogical, when in fact it is perfectly consistent and explains the data better than a Keynesian approach.
Krugman’s Faulty History
Krugman begins his discussion of the Austrian theory by reference to its place in the 1930s:
[T]he idea that there was a titanic intellectual battle in the 1930s between Hayek and John Maynard Keynes is basically fan fiction; Hayek’s views on the Great Depression didn’t get much intellectual traction at the time, and his fame came later, with the publication of his 1944 political tract “The Road to Serfdom.”
Already Krugman is making stuff up. (As I’ve written elsewhere, when Krugman uses the caveat “basically,” what he means is “This statement is literally false.”) Although the clash may not have involved dueling rap lyrics, Hayek really was the chief rival of Keynes in the early 1930s. As Bruce Caldwell explains:
In 1929 [Lionel] Robbins had begun what was to become his long tenure as head of the Economics Department at the London School of Economics (LSE). Robbins invited Hayek to London in January 1931, and the next month the young Austrian delivered a series of lectures on the business cycle. The lectures were published later that year (with an effusive foreword by Robbins) under the title, Prices and Production. Hayek’s lectures, though at times opaque, caused quite a stir. By the fall of 1931, Hayek had been appointed the Tooke Professor of Economic Science and Statistics at the University of London. He was thirty-two years old.
Sir John Hicks was at the LSE from 1926 to 1935 and remembers well the impact of Hayek’s arrival. Indeed, he divides his own stay at the University of London into a pre-Hayekian and a Hayekian period…. In his article, “The Hayek story,” Hicks reflects on the importance of Hayek’s early work.
“When the definitive history of economic analysis during the nineteen-thirties comes to be written, a leading character in the drama (it was quite a drama) will be Professor Hayek. Hayek’s economic writings—I am not concerned with his later work in political theory and sociology—are almost unknown to the modern student; it is hardly remembered that there was a time when the new theories of Hayek were the principle rivals of the new theories of Keynes. Which was right, Keynes or Hayek?”
Ludwig Lachmann writes of Hayek’s “triumphal entry on the London stage with his lectures on Prices and Production,” and recalls that when he (Lachmann) arrived at the LSE two years later, “all important economists there were Hayekians” …
It’s undeniably true that in the eyes of the profession, Hayek lost the debate to Keynes. But Krugman is wrong to claim that Hayek was a minor player who was only known for his political writings.
Krugman Oversimplifies Austrian Business Cycle Theory
After downplaying its importance at the time, Krugman admits that there was an Austrian analysis of the Great Depression, and summarizes it in this way:
Nonetheless, there was an identifiable Austrian analysis of the Depression, shared by Hayek and other economists, including Joseph Schumpeter. Where Keynes argued that the Depression was caused by a general shortfall in demand, Hayek and Schumpeter argued that we were looking at the inevitable difficulties of adjusting to the aftermath of a boom. In their view, excessive optimism had led to the allocation of too much labor and other resources to the production of investment goods, and a depression was just the economy’s way of getting those resources back where they belonged. (bold added)
In the above excerpt, Krugman makes a subtle but important misstatement of the Austrian explanation of the boom-bust cycle. Specifically, Krugman is casting ABCT as a theory of overinvestment in capital goods and underinvestment in consumer goods.1
Yet in reality, the sophisticated version of ABCT—especially in the writings of Mises—is more properly described as one of malinvestment among various types of capital goods coupled with too much consumption.
It is this simple confusion that drives most of the erroneous objections to ABCT coming from professional economists. In a 2012 Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics article, Joe Salerno quotes extensively from such economists (including Krugman) and then clarifies:
Had the critics seriously studied the original sources in which ABCT is expounded, they would have learned that it is not an “overinvestment” theory at all. In fact, Mises, Rothbard and, somewhat less emphatically, Hayek argued explicitly that “overconsumption” and “malinvestment” were the essential features of the inflationary boom. In their view, the divergence between the loan and natural rates of interest caused by bank credit expansion systematically falsifies the monetary calculations of entrepreneurs choosing among investment projects of different durations and in different stages varying in temporal remoteness from consumers. But it also distorts the income and wealth calculations and therefore the consumption/saving choices of the recipients of wages, rents, profits and capital gains. In other words, while the artificially reduced loan rate encourages business firms to overestimate the present and future availability of investible resources and to malinvest in lengthening the structure of production, at the same time it misleads households into a falsely optimistic appraisal of their real income and net worth that stimulates consumption and depresses saving. (bold added)
In the remainder of the current article, I’ll continue to quote from Krugman’s recent column and then show why his initial confusion about ABCT drives all of his problems with it.
But to repeat: Krugman views ABCT as a simple theory of overinvestment in capital goods and underinvestment in consumption goods (as do other ABCT critics). But in reality, the Misesian theory is that credit expansion leads to artificially low interest rates, which in turn cause entrepreneurs to invest in the wrong lines and cause consumers to believe they are wealthier than they really are and hence consume too much.
Let us see how this confusion leads Krugman astray.
Krugman Alleges Problems with ABCT, Both Theoretical and Empirical
Returning to his recent column, below we reproduce two of Krugman’s long-running objections to ABCT, namely that it fails on both a theoretical and empirical level:
[The Hayek/Schumpeter] view had logical problems: If transferring resources out of investment goods causes mass unemployment, why didn’t the same thing happen when resources were being transferred in and away from other industries? It was also clearly at odds with experience: During the Depression and, for that matter[,] after the 2008 crisis, there was excess capacity and unemployment in just about every industry—not slack in some and shortages in others.
In the quote above, Krugman’s “logical problem” with ABCT derives entirely from his superficial understanding of the theory. Yes, if Mises had actually argued that the boom period is merely a switch of preferences one way, while the bust is a switch back—sort of like consumers deciding to try Mountain Dew for a few years, only to revert to Coke—then it would be weird to associate the first change with prosperity and the latter with privation.
This is why Salerno emphasized the overconsumption during the boom period, when individuals falsely believe they are richer than they really are. The boom is unsustainable in physical terms; the members of society are not saving enough out of total income in order to complete all of the long-term production processes initiated during the boom. Armed with cheap credit, the entrepreneurs use the injections of new money to bid workers away from their original jobs and into new lines. This necessarily involves higher (real) wages and thus induces a feeling of good times.
But when reality reasserts itself—typically when banks chicken out and stop injecting new credit into the system—many entrepreneurs realize their projects must be terminated. They lay off workers and halt their purchases of other inputs. Wages and other prices must fall (at least in real terms) to reflect the new reality. It is painful to be laid off; workers are poorer than they thought, and must search for a new job that doesn’t pay as well as their employer during the boom time.
For a systematic exposition of the Austrian narrative, showing how it is logically consistent and can explain the asymmetry between the boom and bust, see my 2008 “sushi article” here at mises.org (which many readers have told me is one of their all-time favorites, for what that’s worth). In fact, Krugman himself praised my article at the time, and retreated from saying the ABCT had logical problems to merely alleging that it didn’t fit the data.
Space constraints prevent me from rehashing the arguments here, but on the issue of empirical validity, once again the Austrians triumph over the Keynesians. In this article, I summarized some of the “tests” Krugman had thrown against an Austrian-type explanation of the housing bubble and 2008 crisis. As it turned out, using Krugman’s own rules for the test, the Austrian explanation made more sense. (For example, percentage declines in employment were larger in construction than in manufacturing, and higher in durable goods than nondurable goods, and unemployment was highest in the states that had the biggest swings in home prices. These outcomes are to be expected in a “sectoral readjustment” Austrian story, as opposed to an “everybody panicked and stopped spending” Keynesian story.)
Hilarious: Krugman Resolves the “Logical Problem” When It Justifies Inflation
Before closing the present article, I want to highlight a hilarious aspect of Krugman’s latest commentary. The specific news hook for his discussion of ABCT was a formal paper presented by elite economists at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole conference, held in August. Here is Krugman’s summary of the paper and its relevance to the Austrians:
Although we aren’t hearing much about Austrian economics these days, the pandemic really did produce an Austrian-style reallocation shock, with demand for some things surging while demand for other things slumped….
So we’re finally having the kind of economic crisis that people like Hayek and Schumpeter wrongly believed we were having in the 1930s. Does this mean that we should follow the policy advice they gave back then?
No.
That’s the message of a paper by Veronica Guerrieri, Guido Lorenzoni, Ludwig Straub and Iván Werning that was prepared for this year’s Jackson Hole meeting…. Guerrieri et al. never explicitly mention the Austrians, but their paper can nonetheless be construed as a refutation of their policy prescriptions.
Hayek and Schumpeter were adamantly against any attempt to fight the Great Depression with monetary and fiscal stimulus. Hayek decried the use of “artificial stimulants,” insisting that we should instead “leave it to time to effect a permanent cure by the slow process of adapting the structure of production.”…
But these conclusions didn’t follow even if you accepted their incorrect analysis of what the Depression was all about. Why should the need to move workers out of a sector lead to unemployment? Why shouldn’t it simply lead to lower wages?
The answer in practice is downward nominal wage rigidity: Employers are really reluctant to cut wages, because of the effects on worker morale….
Guerrieri et al. argue, with a formal model to back them up, that the optimal response to a reallocation shock is indeed a very expansionary monetary policy that causes a temporary spike in inflation. Workers would still have an incentive to change jobs, because real wages would fall in their old jobs but rise elsewhere. But there wouldn’t have to be large-scale unemployment….
… Now that we’ve finally had the shock Austrian economists kept imagining, we can see that they were still giving very bad advice.
And in case you’re wondering, the Fed, by accepting transitory inflation, is getting it right. (bold added)
To summarize, the new paper by Guerrieri et al. argues that if accommodated by a burst of inflation, we can transfer workers from one sector to another without the need for large-scale unemployment. However, if the Fed doesn’t inflate, then the need to reallocate workers will lead to large-scale unemployment.
Does the reader see the irony? That asymmetry has been Krugman’s chief objection (“logical problem”) to ABCT for decades. No matter how many times Austrians explained it to him, he just couldn’t wrap his head around the notion that monetary inflation might move workers around without causing an initial surge in unemployment.
Yet when that same exact mechanism is invoked in order to justify the inflation—rather than to condemn it, as the Austrians do—then all of a sudden Krugman is able to understand the process. Incentives really do matter.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 21:00 - Fukushima Plant Operator Admits It "Neglected To Investigate" Faulty Exhaust Filters Used To Contain Radioactive Pollution
Fukushima Plant Operator Admits It “Neglected To Investigate” Faulty Exhaust Filters Used To Contain Radioactive Pollution
Fukushima officials have admitted that they have “neglected to investigate” faulty exhaust filters that have been put in place to prevent radioactive pollution from the premises.
Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, who operates the plant, disclosed the revelation on Monday of this week during a meeting with regulatory authorities, AP reported. 24 of the 25 filters attached to the water treatment equipment had already been found to be damaged last month. Alarms went over as workers were “moving sludge”, the report says.
Last week, operations partially resume.
The purpose of the filters is to “prevent particles from escaping into the air from a contaminated water treatment system”, the report noted.
TEPCO has been accused of coverups and delayed disclosures at the plant since the meltdown. The operator said it had found “similar damage” to the filters two years ago never never investigated the cause and didn’t take any preventative steps.
Nuclear Regulation Authority commissioner Nobuhiko Ban told AP: “At the core of this problem is TEPCO’s attitude.”
Regulatory commissioner Satoru Tanaka added that TEPCO should have acted sooner, despite TEPCO claiming that dust monitors didn’t indicate radiation leaks or exposure to plant workers.
Akira Ono, head of TEPCO’s decommissioning unit, said he “regretted” the operator’s failure to address the problem.
Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency is working with Japanese officials to prepare a planned discharge of cooling water into the ocean in a fashion that keeps radioactivity levels below legal limits.
Three reactors at the plant melted down in 2011 as the result of an earthquake and the ensuing tsunami. A decommissioning of the plant is expected to take decades.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 20:40 - World's Biggest Battery In California Overheats, Shuts Down
World’s Biggest Battery In California Overheats, Shuts Down
Authored by Daniel Khmelev via The Epoch Times,
An “overheating incident” at the world’s biggest grid battery in California on Sept. 4 forced three quarters of the station to power down until further notice.
South of San Francisco, the largest-of-its-kind Moss Landing energy storage facility recently grew from 300 to 400 megawatts (MW), with the ability to output for four hours.
But after a limited number of modules reached operationally unsafe temperatures on Sept. 4, safety mechanisms triggered sprinklers that targeted the affected modules, resulting in the facility’s primary 300-MW section to shut off entirely.
The overheating came as the state experienced a sweltering 100 degrees Fahrenheit heatwave over the Labor Day weekend.
The North County Fire Protection District of Monterey County was called to the scene as a precaution. No injuries were sustained.
The newly built 100-MW portion of the power station located in a separate building remained functional.
On Sept. 7, Vistro, the owner, and battery manufacturer LG Energy Solution began investigations into the root cause of the incident.
“The teams are in the early stages of this investigation and expect that it will take some time to fully assess the extent of the damage before developing a plan to safely repair and return the battery system to operation,” Vistro said in a media statement.
Difficulties in managing battery fires mean that big battery facilities require obsequious temperature monitoring and management.
This was illustrated last month in Australia after firefighters were unable to control a fire at the country’s largest grid battery, which burnt for close to four days.
A fire at the Victoria Big Battery in Moorabool near Melbourne in Victoria, Australia, on July 30, 2021. (Fire Rescue Victoria)
Local fire authorities said at the time that the nature of the fire meant it was extremely difficult to extinguish using conventional methods.
“They are difficult to fight because you can’t put water on the megapacks … all that does is extend the length of time that the fire burns for,” the spokesman said.
“The recommended process is you cool everything around it so the fire can’t spread, and you let it burn out.”
The 400 MW capacity of the Moss Landing grid battery is part of state efforts to meet the energy storage legislation AB 2514 passed in 2013, which requires utilities to build 1,325 MW of operational energy storage capacity by 2024.
The state’s transition toward greater renewable energy capacity had previously led California’s energy officials to ask for additional power capacity due to reliability concerns for the months of July and August.
“California is using all available tools to increase electricity reliability this summer,” officials said, citing “unprecedented heat events, which are occurring throughout the West in combination with drought conditions that reduce hydroelectric capacity.”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 20:20 - SpaceX Launches First-Ever Private Crew To Space For Three Day Mission
SpaceX Launches First-Ever Private Crew To Space For Three Day Mission
Update (2023ET): The Crew Dragon capsule separated from the second stage, and the Inspiration4 mission is now circling Earth with the first-ever private space crew.
Inspiration4 is expected to orbit around Earth for three days at an altitude of 360 miles, or about 150 miles higher than the International Space Station.
Dragon and the @inspiration4x crew will orbit Earth for three days at an altitude of ~575 km, flying farther than any other human spaceflight since the Hubble missions pic.twitter.com/NZu2OM09zZ
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) September 15, 2021
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Here are some of the views from inside the capsule.
* * *
SpaceX is preparing to launch the Inspiration4 mission on Wednesday evening from NASA’s facility in Florida. This mission is the first private crew of astronauts.
Watch Live:
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 20:06 - Collapse In Retail Investor Euphoria Points To "Imminent Correction", Vanda Warns
Collapse In Retail Investor Euphoria Points To “Imminent Correction”, Vanda Warns
The last time retail participation in the market dried up, was back in May when three months after retail investors took the stock market by storm sparking a series of historic short squeezes in meme stonks such as GME and AMC, the money from various stimmies dried up and retail enthusiasm for stocks suddenly faded.
We discussed this on May 9 when we said “Retail Participation In Stock Trading Has Collapsed“, and pointed to the plunge in call option volumes, which had emerged as the preferred investment vehicle for millions of GenZ and Millennial investors.
Perhaps coincidentally, our warning that day marked the top for the market for the next few weeks, with the S&P sliding some 200 points in just the next four days.
We bring this up because at a time when retail investors have become instrumental in propping up the market and buying each and every dip, this time around retail enthusiasm is once again fading.
Maybe it is because the S&P is at all time highs, or because retail euphoria has shifted to cryptos which have vastly outperformed even the most perky meme stonks, but as Vanda Research which tracks traffic on retail trading platforms and industry-wide order flows, the scale of retail interventions is getting smaller. This, according to the firms strategists, raises the chances of more serious declines if big investors continue to retreat.
“While we have seen a pick-up in ETF buying this week, the magnitude has been a little underwhelming relative to previous selloffs,” Ben Onatibia and Giacomo Pierantoni wrote. “This diminishing appetite to support the equity rally raises the odds of a larger selloff if institutional investors continue to sell.”
While this is especially bad news for apps like Robinhood whose entire business model depends on continued retail main, it is also bad news for bulls overall, as the army of retail traders has reliably shown up to buy broad ETFs at various points in 2021. And while they did so again in the five days through Tuesday, with $657 million of purchases, as Vanda’s Onatibia and Pierantoni note in the chart below, such buying was between 35% and 100% larger during similar-sized drawdowns in July and August.
Here Bloomberg adds that while seasonal factors could be at play – as vacations end and a new school year begins – there’s another worrying sign according to Vanda: Retail investors have been concentrating their buying in tech stocks.
“There are two distinct phases in the outperformance of technology shares,” the strategists wrote. “The first one is usually driven by institutional investors, who enter the trade when valuations are attractive. The second leg of the outperformance happens when FOMO-driven retail investors join the trade.” And since we are currently in the FOMO leg, it hints at “an imminent reversal” in market leadership, they said.
Incidentally, the fate of retail dip-buying was cited by JPM quant Nick Panigirtzoglou last week as a potential counterweight to the growing bearish sentiment among major Wall Street banks. As we discussed in “The Six Largest Wall Street Banks Issue Market Red Alerts” in which we noted that the most popular sellside strategists had turned somewhat – or very – bearish, expecting an imminent correction anywhere between 5% and 20%, the JPM quant said that one possible saving grace was that retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace “that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely.”
“So far this year retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely” Panigirtzoglou wrote, adding that “whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors attitude towards equities remains to be seen.”
At the same time, he also conceded the counter argument, namely “that the strength of the retail flow has pushed equities up by so much and has made investors globally more overweight equities, many of them unwilling, that the risk of profit taking should be naturally high. Indeed, in support of this counter argument, updating our most holistic of our equity position indicators, i.e. the implied equity allocation of non-bank investors globally, points to an equity allocation of 46% currently, only slightly below the post Lehman crisis high of 47.6% seen in 2018”
And while the JPM quant admits that he is sympathetic to this counter argument, “in the absence of a material slowing in the retail flow into equities, the risk of an equity correction remains low.” As such, we concluded last week, in his view monitoring this retail flow on a daily and weekly basis going forward “is key to the equity market outlook.”
Considering that the latest retail trading data shows to an continued decline in the pace of purchases, it is merely the latest risk to consider when buying stocks some 2% away from their all time high.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 20:00 - 5-Minute-Plus Wait-Time For 911 Calls In Portland Amid Staff Shortages, Efforts To Defund Police
5-Minute-Plus Wait-Time For 911 Calls In Portland Amid Staff Shortages, Efforts To Defund Police
Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,
Portland residents calling 911 to report emergencies are facing a “dramatic increase” in hold times, with officials saying that the system has become “unmanageable” and is “broken.”
According to The Oregonian, people dialing 911 are often left waiting over two minutes for their call to be answered, far longer than the national standard of 15 to 20 seconds.
People calling 911 to report a Sept. 4 shootout at a Pearl District restaurant and other emergencies in the following half-hour waited an average of more than 7.5 minutes before a dispatcher answered, The Oregonian reported, adding that this was just “the latest example of serious problems plaguing the city’s emergency dispatch system.”
Portland has dealt with unrest amid continuous riots that first broke out in the spring of 2020. Some of the people who have committed crimes are members of the far-left, anarcho-communist Antifa network. Others have identified as Black Lives Matter activists.
Bob Cozzie, director of Portland’s Bureau of Emergency Communications, said his bureau answers about a million 911 calls a year, of which about 550,000 are emergency calls and 450,000 non-emergency calls.
Speaking of the dramatic increase in hold times, Cozzie called the situation “horrible”, adding “There’s no other way to state it.” He noted that it was time for Oregon to start looking at other options and solutions to the increasing delays, such as routing non-emergency calls elsewhere.
Cozzie said that the agency’s own statistics show an average hold time of a minute. But, it also shows a sharp rise in the number of 911 calls on hold for two minutes or longer starting in late spring and summer.
As per The Oregonian, 574 of the 911 calls in the city had to wait on hold for more than five minutes in July. This number is more than double that of May, when 221 calls waited that long, and is drastically more than in March, when only eight 911 calls took more than five minutes to answer.
Portland police officers walk past a fire started by a Molotov cocktail that a rioter hurled at them, in Portland, Oregon., on Sept. 23, 2020. (Nathan Howard/Getty Images)
Compared to 2020, Portland’s Bureau of Emergency Communications has experienced a 20 to 45 percent increase in 911 calls, with residents making a total of 63,573 calls to 911 in July, 20 percent more than they did in July of 2020. Calls to 911 in July 2020 represented only a 2 percent increase over July 2019.
Cozzie cited a number of reasons for the long wait times, such as a significant increase in the volume of 911 and non-emergency calls that his department receives, as well as less available staff.
He noted that more than a dozen employees have “retired, taken leaves of absence, been promoted or resigned over the past six months,” contributing to staff shortages and thus longer wait times.
Current staff are still in training on new medical and fire triage protocols put in place in an effort to cut down on the number of fire trucks sent to low-level medical calls, he said.
“We’re at a tipping point now. It’s become unmanageable,” he said.
“The system is broken.”
The increase in both the number of 911 calls and the longer hold times comes amid a rising number of homicides in Oregon.
People clash during rival rallies in Portland, Ore., on Aug. 22, 2021. (David Ryder/Reuters)
According to the Portland Police Bureau, between July 2020 and July 2021, 98 homicide offenses were reported to the bureau. During that same period the year prior, from July 2019 to July 2020, just 23 homicide offenses were reported.
Law enforcement officials have been resigning en masse from their posts amid continued calls to defund the police and other law enforcement agencies. In June, the entire Portland Police Bureau’s Rapid Response Team (RRT) left their voluntary positions after an officer was indicted on a protest assault charge.
The team, which is responsible for providing public safety at crowd events when there was a threat of harm to the community, consisted of approximately 50 officers, all of whom resigned on June 16, but said they would continue with their regular assignments.
The mass resignation came just one day after Multnomah County District Attorney Mike Schmidt announced his team had indicted one member, Officer Corey Budworth, on one count of fourth-degree assault for physically injuring someone during an Aug. 18, 2020, protest.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 19:40 - US, UK To Share Nuclear Submarine Technology With Australia In "Historic" Military Pact Against China
US, UK To Share Nuclear Submarine Technology With Australia In “Historic” Military Pact Against China
After breaking news of the the historic pact between the US, UK and Australia earlier, we have now gotten confirmation and additional information about the pact.
As the SCMP confirmed, the US, Britain and Australia announced on Wednesday a “historic” security alliance to strengthen military capabilities in the Pacific, which will share advanced defense technologies and give Australian forces nuclear submarine technology further extending Washington’s drive for military cooperation that has angered China (although we are confident Gen Milley has already shared said nuclear technology with China so their anger will probably be contained).
President Biden, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison appeared virtually together to announce the partnership. “This is about investing in our greatest sources of strength, our alliances, and updating them to better meet the threats of today and tomorrow,” Mr. Biden said. “It’s about connecting America’s existing allies and partners in new ways and amplifying our ability to collaborate.” All three leaders stressed that the new submarine would be nuclear-powered and not armed, keeping in line with nuclear nonproliferation measures. None of them mentioned China in their remarks.
The pact builds on the longstanding alliance between the three to share intelligence, deepen cooperation and help Australia as China’s influence grows.
The new agreement, announced Wednesday by leaders of the three countries, was described by administration officials as a way to line up common interests in the Asia Pacific.
As noted earlier, the partnership The partnership is called AUKUS, an acronym for Australia, United Kingdom and the US and will have a number of components, chief among them the development of the nuclear submarine capability for Australia. Others include security cooperation in cyberspace, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies and undersea capabilities, administration officials said Wednesday.
While officials declined to say the effort was intended to counter China, describing it as an effort to engage three allies together strategically in an important region, let’s be honest: the effort is intended to counter China whose response to this new venture will be most curious and certainly one that will not help ease the global inflationary wave . The announcement comes shortly after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan last month, which was described as part of a broader effort by the Biden administration to focus on issues in the Indo-Pacific, including China.
“This partnership is not aimed, or about any one country, it’s about advancing our strategic interests, upholding the international rules based order and promoting peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific,” one official said. “This is about a larger effort to sustain the fabric of engagement and deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.”
Meanwhile, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington urged the U.S. and others to “shake off their Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice.”
“Exchanges and cooperation between countries should help expand mutual understanding and trust,” the spokesman said. “They should not build exclusionary blocs targeting or [harm] the interests of third parties.”
While the U.S., the U.K. and Australia already take part in common security arrangements, and all three participate in the Five Eyes alliance, an intelligence-sharing arrangement that also includes Canada and New Zealand the new security structure provides for the technology cooperation needed to share nuclear submarine technology and other common efforts in a region where China poses growing security concerns.
The U.S. and U.K. are starting an 18-month period of consultation on helping Australia develop the nuclear submarine capability. That would eventually allow Canberra to conduct faster, stealthier submarine missions of longer duration than conventional submarine technology allows.
The U.S. has shared its technology in developing such a capability only with the U.K. White House officials declined to say how long it would take Australia to build a nuclear submarine but said Australia’s conventional submarines fall short of the stealth, range, speed and maneuverability needed to confront nations like China.
* * *
Earlier:
President Joe Biden is expected Thursday to deliver remarks on a major new “national security initiative” which ultimately appears aimed at countering China. Citing sources in the White House, Politico is reporting the US alongside allies Australian and Britain will unveil a landmark new security pact for sharing advanced defense technologies.
In particular, nuclear submarine technology is expected to top the list for the tech sharing initiative. As Politico writes, “The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the three countries to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.”
Australian Navy image It’s being further suggested that the pact is likely to result in Australia abandoning a $90 billion submarine deal with France – which was already for years fraught with tensions over soaring costs and production delays.
According to The Sydney Morning Herald the anticipated “AUUKUS pact” was the likely subject of federal ministers being called to an urgent “top secret” meeting in Australia’s capital:
In Australia, federal cabinet ministers were called to a top-secret meeting in Canberra on Wednesday ahead of the announcement. Some members of cabinet were granted border exemptions to urgently fly to Canberra for the hastily arranged meeting, sources familiar with the development said.
The White House announcement of the US-UK-Australia pact is expected for Thursday afternoon, at a moment Aussie Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Defence Minister Peter Dutton are in Washington D.C. for annual Australia-US Ministerial Consultations. Likely they will be at the White House with Biden for the statement. Prime Minister Scott Morrison is expected to simultaneously make his own statement addressing the Australian public on the new agreement.
Though there’s likely to be no explicit mention of China, it’s clear Washington is continuing to deepen its support to Indo-Pacific allies with an aim to curtail China’s influence, and interestingly at comes as Australia is locked in its own trade war with China, with Beijing over the past couple years curbing Australian beef imports and levying huge punitive tariffs on barley, wine, and other commodities.
“There’s nothing explicitly mentioning China in the three-way deal, the people said, but both noted that the subtext of the announcement is that this is another move by Western allies to push back on China’s rise in the military and technology arenas,” Politico underscored in its report.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 19:25 - Biden Mandate Will Only Boost Number Of Vaccinated By 12 Million: Goldman
Biden Mandate Will Only Boost Number Of Vaccinated By 12 Million: Goldman
Now that President Biden has abandoned his promise not to impose vaccine mandates on working Americans, Wall Street investment banks are trying to guess how Biden’s new mandates for federal workers – and his administration’s request that all private employers with more than 100 employees impose a similar requirement – will increase the level of vaccine-induced immunity.
Unfortunately for Biden, a team of analysts at Goldman has run the numbers, and they’re saying the impact of Biden’s new program will probably be limited: Goldman estimates that the requirements will apply to about 25MM currently unvaccinated individuals, and boost the number of vaccinated individuals by 12MM (or 3.6% of the total population) through March next year.
Ultimately, Goldman expects 82% of the total population (and 90% of adults) to be vaccinated with a first dose by mid-2022.
What’s more, Goldman sees some downside employment risk in the near term, as 7MM affected workers report that they will definitely not get the vaccine, while mandates imposed earlier this summer caused some to leave their jobs.
According to Biden’s edicts, federal workers have 75 days to comply with the vaccine mandate, and although the DOL rule has not yet been issued, we expect private businesses will be given a similar time period to comply, suggesting the rule could become binding in late-2021 or early-2022. Although the vaccine mandate will likely be challenged in court, the administration appears to believe it falls within OSHA’s authority (even if enforcement proves difficult).
Goldman’s approach to estimating the impact of Biden’s order is based on the impact of French President Emanuel Macron’s immunity pass. equires proof of vaccination, immunity, or a negative test to get into restaurants, bars, hospitals, and public transportation or to work at a public venue. Although France’s immunity pass is mostly tied to spending rather than to work, it imposes similar vaccine/testing requirements to engage in normal economic life. The introduction of the vaccine passport in early July led to a sharp re-acceleration in the pace of first dose vaccinations in France, as shown by the chart above.
Goldman’s alternate approach to projecting the impact of the order combines data from Census Household Pulse Survey on the shares of working individuals that are unvaccinated and “will probably not get it”, that “will definitely not get it,” or that are unvaccinated for other reasons, with an adjustment for individuals that misreport their vaccination status.
Coupled with assumptions on the mandate-driven increase in the vaccination for each of these three groups, this approach implies that the requirements will boost the vaccination rate by just over 3pp by March next year. Averaging both approaches, we estimate that the new requirements will boost the number of vaccinated individuals by 12mn, or 3.6% of the total population.
Incorporating these estimates, the recent somewhat faster-than-expected vaccination pace, and assuming that vaccinations for children ages 5-11 are approved in November, we now expect 82% of the total population (and 90% of adults) to be vaccinated with a first dose by mid-2022, as the chart below shows.
As for the order’s impact on the labor market, while growing vaccination rates might convince some (at-risk) people that it’s finally safe to return to the work force, it’s more likely that Biden’s edict will lead to at least some employment reallocation this fall as vaccine-resisters search for jobs at smaller companies not subject to the mandate.
Of course there is still a significant amount of uncertainty regarding the implementation of Biden’s mandate, including when and how strictly it will be enforced. At the very least, these projections will give us a chance to look back in three months and see how misguided – or perhaps how uncannily correct – they were.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 19:20 - They Are Creating The Biggest Witch Hunt In American History
They Are Creating The Biggest Witch Hunt In American History
Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,
Prior to this pandemic, if you wanted to weed out all of the “troublemakers”, “independent thinkers” and “non-conformists” from our society, how would you have done it?
I suppose that sending everyone a questionnaire asking them what they believe would be one way to do it, but of course a lot of people would give false answers and many others would simply ignore the questionnaire. Social media profiles contain a wealth of information, but many “non-conformists” are not even on social media and digging through all of that data would take an extraordinary amount of time, money and energy. Up until just recently, there just hasn’t been an easy and efficient way to identify those that are not eager servants of the system.
But now the COVID vaccines have changed everything. These injections are the perfect litmus test, because “troublemakers”, “independent thinkers” and “non-conformists” are pretty much the only ones that are refusing the shots at this point. This makes it exceptionally easy to divide American citizens into two categories, and it also gives authorities a perfect excuse to push all of those “troublemakers”, “independent thinkers” and “non-conformists” to the fringes of society.
As I discussed yesterday, I was literally sick to my stomach as I pondered the implications of Biden’s tyrannical new decrees. Originally, Biden and other Democratic leaders were against any sort of vaccine mandates, but now I think that they have realized that mandates are a tool that they can use to fundamentally reshape our society.
If you don’t understand where I am going with this, just keep reading, because it will become extremely clear by the end of this article.
Biden’s new decrees cover almost every major institution in our society. Just think about it. Any “major institution” is almost certainly going to be employing more than 100 people, and all such organizations are covered by Biden’s mandates.
In addition to businesses of various sizes, we are also talking about colleges, schools, churches, non-profits, political entities, sports teams and charitable organizations.
Millions of Americans that are employed by such institutions could be forced to leave their positions if they refuse to comply with what Biden is demanding.
And the rules that the Biden administration is coming up with will require the institutions to be the enforcers of these draconian new measures.
Your bosses will be forced to make sure that you are submitting to the new rules, because if not they could be hit with massive fines.
In my last article I used the word “sickening” to describe what Biden is trying to do to all of us, but the truth is that word is not nearly strong enough.
What we are facing is a complete and total national nightmare, and it isn’t going to end any time soon.
Biden’s new mandates are even stricter for employees of the federal government. Previously, employees of the federal government were at least given the option to undergo regular testing if they didn’t want to be vaccinated, but now that option is being taken away.
So now millions of federal employees will have to choose between their principles and their careers.
And considering the fact that so many of these people are barely providing for their families right now, a lot of really heartbreaking choices are going to have to be made.
Earlier today, I posted a video from a woman that works for the U.S. Treasury Department. After all these years, she publicly announced on social media that she is going to leave her job because of Biden’s new mandates.
And countless others will follow her out the door.
Biden’s new decrees will also force nearly everyone in the entire healthcare industry to either get vaccinated or give up their careers.
What a horribly cruel thing to do.
Biden is essentially putting a gun to the heads of these people. So many of them spent an enormous amount of time, energy and money to get their educations, and now Biden is telling them that they have to sacrifice everything that they have worked for if they will not comply with his demands.
As I pointed out yesterday, healthcare workers won’t just be forced out of their current jobs. Because virtually every health care provider in the entire country accepts Medicaid and Medicare, those that refuse to comply will essentially be banned from the entire industry.
At a time when a shortage of qualified workers is causing chaos throughout our economy, Biden’s tyrannical orders could force millions of Americans to suddenly lose their jobs. This is an incredibly foolish thing to do, and it could have very serious ramifications in the years ahead.
Sadly, it won’t just be a few people quitting their jobs. A poll that was just conducted discovered that 72 percent of unvaccinated Americans said that they would quit their current jobs rather than be vaccinated…
Many making this argument have cited a Washington Post-ABC News poll released over the weekend. It showed that just 18 percent unvaccinated people whose employers don’t currently have mandates said they would likely get vaccinated if their employer required it. About 7 in 10 (72 percent) said that, if they couldn’t get a medical or religious exemption, they would probably quit rather than submit to the requirement.
I don’t know what is going on behind the scenes, but it is my opinion that Kamala Harris has had a lot of influence in the recent decisions that Biden has been making.
She has always had authoritarian tendencies, and if she ever becomes president that will truly be a catastrophic scenario.
Needless to say, Biden’s new mandates are going to cause great anxiety for millions upon millions of people, and a recent CNN poll found that the mood of the country was already heading in a very negative direction…
The new poll finds 69% of Americans say things in the country today are going badly, below the pandemic-era high of 77% reached in January just before President Joe Biden took office but well above the 60% who felt that way in a March CNN poll.
And 62% say that economic conditions in the US are poor, up from 45% in April and nearly as high as the pandemic-era peak of 65% reached in May 2020.
My hope is that Republican governors will fight Biden’s new decrees with everything that they have got.
Because the truth is that this is one of the most critical moments in U.S. history.
Our most basic liberties and freedoms are under full assault, and we really are descending into full-blown tyranny.
If Biden’s new mandates are not overturned by the courts, millions of Americans that love liberty and freedom could be forced from their jobs.
It would truly be a witch hunt of unprecedented size and scope, and it would represent the greatest purge of “troublemakers”, “independent thinkers” and “non-conformists” that any of us have ever witnessed.
* * *
It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/15/2021 – 19:00
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