Apr 17

Today’s News 17th April 2018

  • Stoltenberg Brushes Off Greece-Turkey Tensions: "Not An Issue For NATO"

    In the last two months, tensions between two NATO member states have escalated dramatically – Turkey has threatened to invade Greek islands, Greece has responded, and Greeks now see Turkey as the greatest threat to their existence.

    But, the rapidly souring tensions between Greece and Turkey are “not an issue for NATO,” the General Secretary of the North Atlantic Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg in an interview with Turkish news agency Anadolu.

    As Keep Talking Greece reports, saying that both countries are “two highly valued NATO allies” Stoltenberg hailed the telephone conversation between Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Turkish counterpart, Binali Yildirim, after the Mirage 2000 crashed and the pilot was killed on Thursday when returning form a mission to intercept Turkish F-16s violating Greek airspace.

    ‘Tension in Aegean should be resolved between Turkey, Greece’

    Q: The tension between Turkey and Greece over the Aegean Sea continues to rise. There are reports that Greece has officially asked NATO to take a more active role in this context. What is NATO’s position on the rising tension between the two NATO allies?

    Stoltenberg: Greece and Turkey are two highly valued NATO allies, they have been allies since 1952.

    Both contribute to our collective defense. I expect that the differences we see on some issues are solved between Turkey and Greece in the spirit of good relations. In this context, I welcome that the PMs of both countries have recently held a phone conversation and that they have agreed to resolve these differences through dialogue. 

    Q: So, NATO does not foresee involvement?

    Stoltenberg: No, it’s not an issue for NATO, this is something that has to be addressed between Turkey and Greece. 

    Commenting on a wide range of issues including the agenda of his visit, the Turkish-led Operation Olive Branch, the fight against terrorism, and Syria, Stoltenberg emphasized the importance of Turkey as a valuable strategic ally.

    The interview was given ahead of Stoltenberg’s visit to Turkey on May 16th.

    No surprise here. No comment. Members need only to contribute to the NATO, while the Alliance sits back and makes plans for the safety of the whole planet…

  • The Grand Troika: A Chance For A World New Order

    Authored by Matthew Jamison via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Back in the late summer of 2017 I wrote an analysis of the state of world affairs and international relations after two seismic geopolitical world events occurred almost simultaneously in 2016 – the UK Referendum result to Leave the European Union and the defeat of Democrat Hillary Clinton by Republican Donald Trump for the White House in the US 2016 Presidential Election. Those twin political events were like major earth shaking bombs going off creating all kinds of disturbances and tremors, aftershocks and creating the greatest of shock and bewilderment within the international political order that had held sway since the defeat of Nazism in 1945. 

    It had become clear to me by the summer of 2017, as I had thought for some time, that politics in Britain – and global geostrategic politics within the broader historical framework of civilizational and human development – had changed profoundly and significantly from were we had been during the 1990s-2012 period, perhaps even from where I started off life in the most intense but ending days of the Cold War in the mid 1980s.

    The UK EU Referendum result and the election of Donald Trump and rejection of Hillary Clinton have simply brought into focus that the world has indeed entered what many international relations experts have been discussing for sometime, the era of extreme global tension, so intense and great that it could trigger World War III. The state of international affairs and the tension within the international system along with the upheavals in the post-WWII 1945 international geopolitical, economic and security architecture have created the environment where misunderstandings and differences can now lead to profound policy implications for foreign affairs, international peace and stability and the course of human history.

    The world has now become what Europe was like on the eve of the outbreak of the World War I.

    A new Cold War has begun, as I wrote back in the summer of 2012, it started some time ago. I placed the point at around 2012. For the great historian Michael Burleigh in his excellent work “The Best of Times. The Worst of Times,” a review of the current now in world affairs, it is around 2011-2013. For Burleigh it is not so much a Cold War more a transition phase of historical proportions on a civilizational scale. The most disturbing matter of all is that this new Cold War could be more deadly than the last. Yet it does not need to be like this and a Cold War mentality must be rejected of seeing Power Politics as the ultimate beneficiary of a State on State zero-sum game based on rampant mass national psychological manipulation and control. The International Community can yet avoid slipping back into a Cold War mentality even if it has now slipped into a new era of international relations, a 2012 New World Order.

    This 2012 New World Order signifies the ending of the period of sole American superpower unipolarity after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The American unipolar moment has come definitely to an end in terms of its sheer unilateral ability to carry out enterprises such as the 2003 Iraq invasion or the preceding invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 combined with the damage wrought by the Wall St Global Financial Crisis of 2008. There has been a tremendous power shift to the East, most notably in economic and financial power, and of all the emerging economies and new mini-regional powers in the area, the most important of these and the most salient to the changes under way in this Great Global Transition, is one of the greatest countries and civilisation in human history, China.

    The fundamental transformation in communications and information which the internet and social media has introduced into the public realm has completely upended the traditional process for Governmental policy making, diplomacy and political campaigning as well as the media and business and leadership in general.

    Technology is creating a virtual reality cyberspace world of enhanced globalisation but greater atomised individualism while inequality in the West is rampant as is social decay and breakdown alongside a serious problem in the Western Anglo-American democratic electoral model which seemed to prevail in 1989 and in general a deeper moral malaise of existential nihilism.

    A global struggle for power is occurring on many levels. This is due to the breakdown of the global balance of power that has held sway since the end of World War II and the brief interlude of the 1990s. In my article in August 2017 I discussed the remoulding of President Trump around the traditional military-industrial complex with his penchant for military Generals. I also stated that the more liberal “West Wing” Democrats seemed to be in the ascent with the removal of Mr. Steve Bannon. The National Security Council seemed to be in better hands under HR McMaster while Rex Tillerson was showing some promise at the State Department but had already started to exhibit worrying trends.

    That is the inclination in some parts of the American foreign and defence policy National Security Establishment to view this new era of international relations, this 2012 New World Order, as a period of Superpower Rivalry and Great Power competition. Nothing could be more destabilising and dangerous for the future peaceful and prosperous development of the planet through this Great Transition than following such a policy course and setting the United States on such a global posture. There is nothing preordained that the United States cannot remain the number one economy on the planet during President Trump’s tenure and beyond for quite some time.

    And even if China were to start to economically advance well above the United States in the decades ahead, America would still be pretty much number one in terms of overall assets. Besides that is a long way off and the planet is big enough for two powerhouse economies on planetary super scales. While China has transformed itself the likes of which has not been seen in human history and is on course to once again play a unique, special and critical role in world affairs as a Superpower, which it has been many times before throughout history, it is still a developing nation with all the challenges that a country of 1.3 billion people possess. It has no great wish to usurp the United States as the global policeman and Leader of the International Order. There is great potential for a deep and creative comprehensive and truly lasting partnership based on mutual admiration, mutual respect and mutual collaboration and trust between Washington DC and Beijing which together could be of enormous benefit for the development of humanity in peace and harmony. The work on North Korea which China has undertaken is a fine case in point of Chinese diplomacy contributing to the greater global good.

    Over the course of the last few months President Trump has remade his administration again and with a new National Security Advisor John Bolton. It was very wise to get rid of Secretary Tillerson and also to reign in the Obama/Clinton pro-German wing of the State Department and US National Security community by replacing McMaster. However Bolton is an extreme American nationalist hawk and allied with the neoconservative movement which portends for some significant and serious ramifications for the making and influencing of American foreign policy going forward.

    The changes in the domestic personnel have also seen a shift which is worrying with the more moderate Goldman Sachs type of Gary Cohn who was the President’s Director of the White House National Economic Council is gone. Instead the administration seems to be flirting with the Office of the Trade Representative Peter Navarro’s ludicrous ideas for a Trade War with China which would be totally counter-productive and extremely damaging to the international order at this fragile and extremely vulnerable time, not to mention hurt America a great deal and the Republican Party in the midterm Congressional elections. There is no need for this and a return o protectionism such as that of the 1920s and 1930s could lead to the rise of a new form of extreme totalitarianism in power. Hopefully calm will prevail on this issue of major global significance. President Trump’s new pick for Director of the CIA, the first woman to serve in the role, Gina Haspel looks also a very astute and good pick. 

    In this post-2012 New World Order the Asia-Pacific is a crucial theatre of strategic significance. As is Eurasia comprising the European Union, the UK and the Russian Federation. The Atlantic arena containing the United States and Canada is heavily integrated and connected through the Western Atlantic NATO Alliance with Europe and also the European Union. It had been my great hope, one of the highest of the incoming Trump administration, to see a successful, truly successful and enduring reset in relations between the United States of America and Russia in a final positive dynamic post-1991 based on mutual admiration, mutual trust and mutual cooperation in vital global national security interests such as combating the danger posed by the spread of violent and ideological jihadist Islamic fundamentalism and nuclear security. With Europe remaking itself due to the crisis over Britain’s departure from the EU it seemed to be a propitious time to be imaginative. However nothing involving America, Europe and Russia is ever going to be suitable in terms of time. 

    It is pointless for two big and great strong countries like America and Russia not to have a positive and constructive dialogue and even partnership for the benefit of common interests. President Obama wanted to reset relations and have a good dynamic with Moscow as did President George W. Bush and President Clinton. It never really worked out and now the hopes of the Trump Presidency have nearly evaporated. US-Russian diplomatic relations and the bilateral US-Russia relationship are at their lowest and worst stage since the darkest days of the Cold War. I am shocked and mortified at the speed and deep deterioration in relations between Washington DC and Moscow since I wrote the last article on this subject back in August.

    I am greatly disturbed at the speed and strength which the relationship seems to have nearly collapsed and the negative turn it has taken. I am very surprised at this turn of events as I had hoped the one bright spot of the Trump administration might be President Trump getting along better with President Vladimir Putin and utilising that relationship to get a better American-Russian and hence Global strategic accommodation for the Great Transition going forward in world affairs. Russia is a great country and deserves a new relationship with the West, especially a new and more vibrant respectful and harmonious relationship with America. A warm relationship.

    The Russian people and Russia itself deserves a great deal more respect than how it has been treated and spoken of late. So the actions of the British Government of Theresa May regarding the stage managed and appallingly planned spiteful anti-Russian bigoted so-called Skripal poisoning affair in Salisbury, England has been a deeply shameful and irresponsible act of madness on the part of an increasingly irrelevant, trivial and useless Prime Minister badly damaged and leading a country in the midst of a collective Brexit nervous breakdown in no way fit for the duties of a serious responsible national actor on the global stage.

    In this new era of international relations in the post-2012 New World Order, a more respectful and constructive understanding and approach is required to take account of Russia and Russian interests, legitimate security and defence political interests which were trampled on at the end of the previous Cold War. Russia is and will be a key power in the 2012 New World Order and together the Leaders of America, China and Russia can form a special strategic troika of global leadership to enhance global security, understanding, stability and development. Thus it would be in the best interest of the United States and the world for the Trump administration not to intervene militarily in the Syrian civil war or if it really must keep it as limited and surgical as possible. The chemical weapons attacks over the last seven years have and are barbaric and beyond the conscience of humanity and civilised values but this war has been raging for seven years now and it will not be brought to an end with a belated American military intervention.

    Furthermore, the British Government has known for some time that chemical weapons attacks were ongoing in Syria despite the 2013 autumn diplomatic breakthrough for their disposal. Why now is this such an urgent matter to be resolved when the British Government has known about it for over three and a half years? Such a time may have existed early in 2011 but President Obama chose not to intervene overtly militarily thus allowing a vacuum which Islamic State filled. Russia in many respects had no choice but to side with its only remaining Middle Eastern ally and listening post. Furthermore, after the disastrous US-UK interventions in the region in Iraq and then Libya not to mention the still continuing catastrophic war in Afghanistan the growth of al Qaeda/ISIS posed a clear and growing threat to Moscow and the region and world as a whole. The chemical weapons attacks are truly nightmarish but there should be no rush to judgement in a war just as the situation was measured in the autumn of 2013 before a intervention was proposed. The best course would be to let the Russians continue to exercise their influence over Assad and allow for a end to the conflict with a peace process instigated. Both Russia and Israel should team up to manage and contain the situation in Syria while the United States would be best advised not get itself dragged into and bogged down in another war in a Middle Eastern Arab Muslim country.

    Yet the stakes are even higher than that. It would not just be a conflict fought against the Assad regime. The truly appalling nature of this crisis is that it could potentially lead to all-out war between America and Russia which would in all likelihood lead to a Third World War. That situation is inconceivable and it is deeply distressing that we have even arrived at that point in 2018 after only 27 years of the USSR officially having been dissolved. If a war breaks out between America and Russia there will not be much of the planet left for anyone to enjoy in the years to come.

    That is what is most alarming about the growth of the anti-Russian xenophobia and hysteria in the UK fuelled by the right wing Tory Government of Theresa May and the near total collapse in US-Russian relations.

    How could we have arrived at this situation in the international community and global system in 2018 where after the End of History there is a serious and distinct geopolitical possibility of a real hot war between America and Russia over a proxy battle in Syria.?

    How has the international political system become so tense and volatile that such a scenario after all the events of 1945-89 has emerged again and this time perhaps in an even more deadly form?

    Russia is not the source of all evil on the Earth and to believe so is not only deeply offensive but completely mad.

    As President Trump said when asked regarding President Putin: ‘We have a lot of killers. What you think our country is so innocent?’ Greater dialogue and understanding is needed to bring Washington DC and Moscow back together and ensure between President Xi, President Putin and President Trump a Troika of Statesman Leadership that can steer the world through its current choppy waters. A role of constructive partnership can be found for Russia with America and China. A solid, suitable and worthy role befitting of a great nation like Russia. There are so many opportunities and challenges to face as a world this century and together the capitals of Washington DC, Beijing and Moscow can be a Grand Alliance for good on the planet in the early 21st century.

  • "They Know What's Going To Happen" – Governments, Big Banks Are Stockpiling Gold

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    The writing is on the wall and major financial institutions across the world are warning about the economic disaster to come. Unabated money printing, tariff trade wars, rising interest rates and retail slowdowns point to one result, and it’s going to be brutal.

    Big banks and governments know what’s coming and they are preparing for this eventuality by stockpiling huge amounts of “real money” ahead of the crisis.

    According to Keith Neumeyer, the CEO of the world’s top primary silver producer First Majestic Silver and chairman of First Mining Gold, the cartels he’s previously reported to the CFTC have continued to manipulate the prices of precious metals while loading up their own vaults with gold and silver. The answer to why they’re doing it is simple, as Neumeyer highlights in a recent interview with SGT Report:

    The verdict is still out on whether we’re going into a dis-inflationary or inflationary environment… gold can do well in both environments… the fact of the matter is governments are printing extraordinary amounts of fiat currencies and that is not going to change…

    The stage is set for higher gold prices due to the amount of money being printed… I am of the belief a major reset is coming where the governments of the world will need to get rid of their debt by fixing everything to the price of gold… and that’s why governments like China and Russia and other governments around the world are accumulating gold… it’s because they know what’s going to happen over the next several years…

    (Watch at Youtube)

    If it is true [that JP Morgan has acquired the largest position of physical silver in the world] then it’s pretty amazing… Any bank wanting a long position like that is doing it for a reason… 

    Banks like JP Morgan… they haven’t had a losing trade in multiple years… if they’re long something that’s probably what you want to be buying.

    Neumeyer explains that not only are there monetary factors at play, but also supply issues, as production, especially in silver, has dropped markedly over the last several years.

    All of this bodes well for rising precious metals prices going forward, with reasonable estimates for future growth far exceeding the all-time highs we saw in recent years:

    Metals are in an extremely tight trading range… This base the metals are building right now is three years in the making… and when the metals finally take off this year it’s going to be astounding to watch.

    … We lived through it in 2010 and 2011… a good mining stock will far exceed the movement of the metal itself… a stock like First Mining would absolutely explode in an environment like that… it’s hard to predict the exact prices that stocks would do but it would be quite different than it is today…

     I think $2000 or $3000 gold… these are reasonable numbers that we will experience in the not too distant future. 

    Financial analysts and large institutions have generally avoided gold and silver for nearly a decade. But the tide appears to be changing.

    As prices remain suppressed, government are acquiring, big banks are acquiring and even Morgan Stanley recently noted that gold can be used as a “very good proxy of the true value of a dollar over long periods of time.”

    We know economic collapse on a massive scale is approaching.

    To get an idea of where one should be diversifying their assets in the event this worst-case scenario plays out, one need only ask the following question: What is money when the system collapses?

    5,000 years of history for the single most reliable monetary asset class of last resort has already given us the answer. 

    Prepare accordingly.

  • "I Want To Set The Record Straight": Hannity Expains His Relationship With Michael Cohen

    With most of the media in a feeding frenzy after judge Kimba Wood – the same judge who 5 years ago married the 83-year-old George Soros to 42-year-old Tamiko Bolton…

    Georges Soros married Tamiko Bolton; Judge Kimba Wood officiated the non-denominational ceremony

    … unveiled that Michael Cohen’s “third client” is Sean Hannity, questions swirled over potential conflicts of interest, and whether Hannity had an obligation to disclose his relationship to Cohen, whom he defended on his show on more than one occasion.

    As we observed earlier, Hannity justified his silence on the matter claiming Cohen never represented him “in any matter involving a third party”, had never “retained  [Cohen’s] services” and had occasionally “asked Mr Cohen questions concerning the law that Mr Cohen indicated would be privileged.”  This however prompted more questions, the top two being i) whether asking your lawyer “some legal questions” and saying “attorney/client privilege” makes you their client and, ii) why was Cohen’s team so reluctant to reveal Hannity’s name in the hearing, and why the secrecy?

    Earlier on Monday, even attorney and frequent Fox News guest Alan Dershowitz Sean Hannity criticized host Sean Hannity for not disclosing his relationship with Cohen during his frequent discussions about Cohen in recent weeks.
    Dershowitz, a defender of Trump amid his legal woes, was brought on to discuss former FBI Director James Comey’s Sunday night interview on ABC News, but first addressed the Monday revelation that Hannity is the previously unnamed client of Cohen. “I really think you should have disclosed your relationship with Cohen,” Dershowitz said, calling it a “complicated situation.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    So to answer all of this, in his show on Monday night Hannity addressed the Cohen situation for the second time as follows.

    “Michael Cohen never represented me in any legal manner. I never retained his services, I never received an invoice. I never paid Michael Cohen for legal fees. I did have occasional brief conversations with Michael Cohen, he’s a great attorney, about legal questions I had or I was looking for input or perspective.

    “My discussions with Michael Cohen never rose to any level that I needed to tell anyone that I was asking him questions. And to be absolutely clear: they never involved any matter, any – sorry to disappoint so many – matter between me, a third party, a third group, at all. My questions focused almost exclusively on real estate. I said many times on my radio show ‘I hate the stock market, I prefer real estate.’ Michael knows real estate.

    “So in response to all the wild speculation, I want to set the record straight here tonight. I never asked Michael Cohen to bring this proceeding on my behalf. I have no personal interest in this legal matter. That’s all there is, nothing more.”

    To be sure, if Hannity is lying – and with both the FBI and NSA now in possession of all Cohen docs – we will know momentarily, or as soon as the leak to the NYT/WaPo hits, at which point Hannity’s future at Fox News will be no more. On the other, if indeed as Hannity claims “there is no there, there”, maybe Trump will be right, and “attorney-client” privilege is indeed dead, in which case perhaps judge Wood who officiated the wedding of the the lovely couple in the photo above, in which the bride is exactly half the age of the groom, can disclose just what the nature of their relationship is.

    PS. the following brief blurb on Judge Kimba Wood is certainly interesting:

    In 1993 President Bill Clinton nominated her to become the first female Attorney General. But she withdrew from the nomination after the White House learned she had hired an undocumented immigrant as a baby-sitter.

    Wood, who was Clinton’s second choice for AG post, didn’t break the law employing the nanny and in fact paid the woman’s taxes. But the White House asked her to withdraw because her situation was similar to Clinton’s first AG nomination, Zoe Baird.

    Baird bowed out of consideration for the job after she drew criticism for employing two undocumented immigrants as housekeepers.

     

     

  • Only 0.04% Of Taxpayers Are Reporting Any Bitcoin Gains To The IRS

    With the US tax deadline just one day away, crypto investors who traded actively during the market’s run-up and inevitable meltdown should have a lot of activity to report to the IRS.

    But according to a survey conducted by Credit Karma, only a handful of people who have filed their taxes using Credit Karma’s tools have reported bitcoin holdings or holdings of some other cryptocurrency – fewer than 100 out of a total of 250,000 filers, or a whopping 0.04% in total.

    Bitcoin

    In all likelihood, this means that (tens of) thousands of bitcoin traders are refusing to pay the IRS, either betting on the anonymity of the blockchain to conceal their identities, or perhaps in some cases they simply don’t have the money to pay, having lost most of their profits during the market’s spectacular meltdown, as was the case for one anonymous trader who complained on Reddit that he owed the IRS $50,000 that he didn’t have, according to CNBC.

    “If I had to guess, there’s probably a lot of underreporting,” said Elizabeth Crouse, a Seattle-based partner at law firm K&L Gates. “Most of the people in the cryptocurrency world tend to have a pretty high risk tolerance.”

    Bitcoin had its best week in four months last week as selling pressure that appeared to coincide with the US tax season appeared to dissipate.

    Meanwhile, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and other analysts have predicted that “a massive outflow” of cryptocurrency to fiat ahead of tax day in the US had created a massive overhang, and that the bitcoin price could shoot higher after tax day.

    In a report last week, Lee noted that, since US households owe an estimated $25 bln in capital gains taxes due to their crypto holdings, and crypto exchanges also will owe income taxes, both households and exchanges will be selling their crypto to pay the US government:

    “We believe there is selling pressure by crypto exchanges who are subject to income tax in U.S. jurisdictions. Many exchanges have net income in 2017 [of more than] $1 bln and keep working capital in [Bitcoin]/[Ethereum], not USD — hence, to meet these tax liabilities, are selling BTC/ETH.”

    While it’s possible that crypto traders just aren’t using Credit Karma for whatever reason, the data should be a concerning sign for Lee and other crypto bulls. It means that the forced selling might not be over – and in fact could be just getting started – as nonreporters are hunted down by the IRS.

    In the past, crypto traders have mostly ignored warnings and guidance about reporting crypto-related gains. Of course, traders who ignore the IRS do so at their own peril. They could be subject to fines or other penalties once the federal government learns their identities. But as one might suspect given their high risk tolerance, like Crouse mentioned above, some crypto traders might be crazy enough to mix it.

  • China Macro Data Disappoints As MOFCOM Threatens Retaliation For ZTE Ban

    With the yuan at its strongest since devaluing in 2015…

    and lunar new year distortions starting to wash out of the macro-surprise data… (Monthly data for January and February are often plagued by shifts in the lunar new year holidays in China. For today’s March numbers, we should really be past that — although last week’s trade numbers still had a surprise impact.)

    Tonight’s smorgasbord of Chinese economic data is the first glimpse of the state of the economy as the credit impulse slipped negative and the crackdown on shadow banking (and implicitly leverage) began.

     

    Commodities are leading the China bubble for now, with bonds and stocks having been bubbled-through…

    And China stocks (red) are notably underperforming their Asia-Pac peers (green)…

     

    So, the markets need some hope to cling to and so we strongly doubt GDP will be allowed to miss. Bloomberg notes that the backdrop to today’s data is that China is broadly expected to slow somewhat this year, after last year it saw the first acceleration in growth since 2010, when China — and the rest of the world — was bouncing back from the global recession.

    • China Q1 GDP YoY MEET at 6.8%, versus +6.8% exp. and +6.8% prior.

    • China Retail Sales YoY BEAT at 10.1%, versus +9.7% exp. and +9.4% prior.

    • China Industrial Production YoY MISS at 6.0%, versus +6.3% exp. and +6.2% prior.

    • China Fixed Asset Investment YoY MISS at 7.5%, versus +7.7% exp. and +7.9% prior.

    Notably, China Q1 GDP QoQ disappointed however, rising only 1.4% QoQ (versus expectations of a 1.5% QoQ jump…

    So the initial sign is some softening in the industrial part of the economy, and strong growth in the consumer side.

    This one will disappoint President Trump: Steel production still growing…

    • First Quarter Crude Steel Output Rises 5.4% to 212.15M Tons

    • March Crude Steel Output Rises 4.5% Y/Y to 73.98M Mt

    • March Steel Product Output Rises 4.2% to 89.77M Tons

    Bloomberg’s Chris Anstey notes that on the softening in industrial-output growth, Goldman Sachs economists had warned that weather conditions in March weren’t favorable for reducing pollution — so authorities probably put more restrictions on production, construction, and transportation.

    Additionally, a new indicator – the monthly survey-based urban unemployment rate will be introduced today, providing a reading on China’s labor market.

    The NBS may start publishing China’s monthly surveyed unemployment rate (SUR) very soon. The government has long been in a dilemma: cares much about employment but lacked an effective gauge. SUR, we believe, is necessary for guiding the economic transition toward high-quality growth. Compiled according to international standards, the SUR defines the unemployed (the numerator) as people of working age (above 16) who are out of work, want a job, have actively sought work in the previous three months and are available to start work within the next two weeks.

    Meanwhile, the Hong Kong Dollar remains glued to its peg band’s lower limit with HKMA intervention not helping for now…

    The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has bought a total of HK$19.02b ($2.4b) worth of Hong Kong dollars since the currency fell to the weak end of its trading band last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This includes HK$9.36b of purchases in the past 24 hours. No need to proactively adjust the local dollar’s interest rates, as that would easily lead to doubts over the city’s determination in defending the linked exchange rate, HKMA says in an emailed statement.

    But, despite this statement (raising rates would counter the USD Libor carry trade flows), when  former Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Joseph Yam said there IS room for Hong Kong to adjust interest rates and additional exchange fund bill sales can be an option, the dollar strengthened…

     

    Finally, it appears the trade wars are anything but fading as China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on its website that China has noticed U.S. Commerce Department’s export restriction on ZTE, and will take necessary measures to protect Chinese companies’ interests.

    Trading of ZTE shares in Hong Kong suspended from 9am pending release of inside information announcement on the activation of denial order by U.S., it says in filing to Hong Kong stock exchange.

    The statement went on to note that ZTE has cooperated with hundreds of U.S. companies and has contributed tens of thousands of jobs in the U.S.; and China hopes U.S. to fairly deal with the matter based on rules and regulations, and ensure fair, stable environment for company.

  • Mapping Where The 13 Million Displaced Syrians Are

    While the stock market seems to believe the worst is over, one-and-done-and-everyone-crawls-back-in-their-hole, we suspect the ordeal that the Syrian people are dealing with is far from over and could lead to an even greater spike in the number of displaced Syrians, 13 million of whom are now scattered all over the world.

    That’s according to a Pew Research Center analysis published in January. Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes that Pew’s analysis found that over 6 million Syrians are displaced within their own country and they account for 49 percent of all Syrians displaced worldwide.

    Infographic: Nearly 13 Million Syrians Are Displaced | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Turkey has the second highest population with 3.4 million displaced people currently living there.

    Another million of them have made the long and dangerous journey to Europe. Germany hosts most of them with 530,000, followed by Sweden with 110,000. Another 54,000 Syrians live in Canada while 33,000 are in the United States.

  • What Hyperinflation In Venezuela Really Looks Like

    Authored by J.G.Martinez D. via Daisy Luther’s Organic Prepper blog,

    The intention of this article will be to describe how the prices went wild, and what you could expect in a hyperinflation scenario. Perhaps softer, or perhaps worse, that is not possible to know for an amateur like me, not being an economist. But something similar to this is what could be expected in the real world, not in some hypothetical scenario of the theoretical economy..

    For some reason that I will try to elucidate afterward, the salaries stopped being useful for buying anything other than food. The prices I will publish in our national currency, the Bolivar already were rounded by taking 3 zeroes by Uncle Hugo´s command. A few days ago, this was done…again, now by command of the bus driver, in an attempt to make the hyperinflation look less threatening. Go figure.

    One Bolivar is worth 0.000020 USD. The minimum wage is $5.21 or 1.800.000 Bs for a month. Now, how could we expect someone to live under these conditions? It is entirely unexplainable to me that this has not generated massive riots…yet.

    Here are the hyperinflation costs of basic items in Venezuela

    Remember, many people are paid only 1.800.000 Bs for a month:

    • Vegetable oil 900ml. Bottle: 748.367 Bs
    • Cereal mixture for milkshakes: 900Grs can: 1.057.057 Bs
    • Wheat flour, 1 kg: 398.750 Bs
    • Cheese, 1 kg:  2.160.950 Bs (yes, TWO MILLION)
    • Chicken and Bacon: 2.299.500 Bs
    • 395Grs Condensed milk w/sugar: 566.144 Bs
    • Oatmeal 400 Grs:  550.000 Bs
    • 1 kg. Margarine: 747.000 Bs
    • 1Kg Chocolate mixture for milkshakes: 2.060.000 Bs
    • Cheese (melted-for spreading) 300 Grs: 1.097.230 Bs
    • Black Olives 235Grs: 1.677.120 Bs
    • Ladies deodorant: 890.000 Bs
    • Insecticide 1 can: 900.000 Bs
    • Mayonnaise 910 Grs.: 955.000 Bs
    • 2 toilet paper rolls: 399.974 Bs
    • 1 Kg. avocados: 500.000 Bs
    • 30 Eggs: 650.000 Bs.
    • Dog food, dry, bulk 20Kg: 6.060.000 Bs
    • Dishwashing soap, cream 500 Grs: 440.000 Bs
    • 2 door fridge: 627.900.000 Bs (yes, six hundred MILLION)
    • 400ML. Shampoo:  2.052.050 Bs (2 million)
    • 4 small ice cream cups: 2.072.691 Bs
    • Rice 500 Grs: 115.277 Bs
    • TV 65 inches: 329.999.990 Bs
    • 2Lt soda: 298.000 Bs
    • Lemon Juice, 500ml bottle: 731.881 Bs
    • Light bulb, power saving: 935.000 Bs
    • Shoes: 5.986.825 Bs
    • Catfish: 465.300 Bs
    • Sweet corn 400Grs: 466.480 Bs
    • Ground meat: 1.150.000 Bs.
    • Steak: 1.300.000 Bs (depending on the region, usually cheaper in cattle-producing states)
    • Pork chops: over 1.000.000 Bs
    • Corn flour, 1 kg: 265.000 Bs.
    • Dollar price: 350.000 Bs / 1 USD

    How people are reacting

    One of the most amazing things I have seen is that people are in total denial, and they refuse to accept that the money is not worth even the paper it is printed on. They won’t innovate changing to cryptos easily, nor will they accept silver coins, much less other precious metals. They won’t barter, they won’t trade their labor time (I mean major cities, in my small town things are a little different). We had a good supply of silver coins in the 60s, but that changed.

    They talk and talk, complaining about the government, but they just don’t do anything. I have seen some small plots in our subdivision with tomatoes plants and other vegetables, but that is just a salad for one lunch. And the people passing by will take whatever is within their hand’s reach.

    The electronic money has been devaluated much more than cash. Something with a price in cash, if you try to pay with debit card or money transfer via internet the price will be 2 or 3 times the cash price. Illegal? Yes, it is. But there is no way to control it.

    The main problem arises because it is the military taking over the supply chain. They have an agreement with the gangs, and they deviate the production of the plants that are under military control, to the street sales. The gangs are armed, and they protect the retail sellers from thieves and turmoil. This is in the most populated cities, where the money is, and therefore the products don’t make it so often up to the smaller towns.

    The black market offers of tires, food, car spares, engine oil, and all kind of medicines and goods are rampant, and the social networks are full of resellers. You may expect a morality crisis, in parallel with this economical crisis. I asked a granny how much was charging for some hand towels she had for sale, and I did not have enough money in my pocket to buy even one towel…I apologized but saw she was upset. It was a sad, awkward moment indeed.

    Senior citizens are taking a beating. Their pension is not enough for one week worth of food. Jeez, maybe once this is published it will be not enough even for a couple of days…the clowns that tried to sell the “petro” just realized that this snake oil did not work.  The calculated inflation is 13.000%. Without money from the IMF, having paid the debt, and kicked them out of the country…the disaster arrived anyway. The government just does not want to do what they have to do. There are too many military personnel involved in the black market and an uprising is more than possible that will launch the gangs in power off to the ground if some of them are disturbed.

    How people survive

    To find a medium of exchange, and at the same time capable of holding its value until you actually need to exchange it is not easy. Cigarettes, chocolates, all kind of commodities have been used, and there is a small but growing trade with this stuff. Not at the dimensions one would imagine, but generally speaking, the financial culture in our society is almost unknown. There is no such thing as a stock exchange (but there was one, in the past), and whatever other things that smell like the free market, the gov carefully removed. People clamor for “price control” without even realizing that it is not the price but the lack of production what is starving them.

    I have known some people that even received satoshis as a medium of payment for food or car parts. However, as the BTC has been going down these last weeks and the amount of satoshis to receive is calculated based on the USD price, this trading has been slowing down.

    As I have mentioned, the country is already collapsed. Those self-employed that could adjust their fees for their service from one day to another, and that could receive, say, a bag of sugar for their valuable services are those who are not overly stressed to leave the country. This is one of the most important lessons, I think. Someone with manual, valuable skills, that could provide basic goods or services, will be able to survive. They will just adjust their prices…and if the customer can´t pay, then most likely they will trade in their service for something to barter. People with low maintenance trucks,  that have received meat as payment in a farm for transporting a load of hay (many farmers have to buy hay down here in the dry season because they don´t have the machines to compact it and there is no rain for the pastures to grow). They exchange the remaining meat for cheese, poultry, and fish. Or the electrician like my dad got paid with half a pork for one day of work at his friend´s farm rewiring an old corn mill. He took the excess as a gift to one of my cousins, and got back 6 kgs of pasta, and 2 of sugar.

    This is how we, in the small community I was born and raised and my family is lucky to live yet, are dealing with the criminals that have imposed the crisis. These are the places where people support each other because we know everyone since we were small kids. We grew up together, went to school, and celebrate birthdays, Christmas, Mardi Gras together. We cried when our elders were gone, all together. I have found people from my hometown in the opposite side of the country that I did not remember, and they had gone to basic school with me, and after a few anecdotes, we were laughing and shaking hands. This is the kind of community that will struggle but will survive.

    The other ones?. The big city dwellers?…

    The hardworking father of three, with a minimum wage, is starving, and watching their family starve too. Some of them quit their jobs and started a life of crime. Other ones leave their families behind and don’t come back. Other have been kind enough to tell their families that they will be in this or that country, and never appear again.

    Many have committed suicide.

    Elders do it because they don’t want to be a burden nor an additional weight for their family.

    Youngers because they don’t see themselves in such apocalyptical scenario. Normal stuff in other countries like buying a car, a house, having children, graduating from college, seem to be impossible tasks, no matter how hard you work for that.

    The official rate of suicides is not something that can be trusted. The gang that claims to be a government is covering up even the starvation deaths of the children in the hospitals, in an attempt to avoid further international sanctioning.

    They are forcing doctors to fake the cause of the deaths in the reports.

    And this, ladies and gentlemen, is what hyperinflation and a collapsed country looks like.

    May God bless us and protects us all.

    Note: Thanks for your generosity, to those who have contributed to get my family out, and those who will assist us in the future.

  • Russia Reveals Who "Staged" Syria Gas Attack, As US Claims Moscow "May Have Tampered" With Site

    The Russian envoy to the chemical weapons watchdog group, OPCW, said that non-governmental organizations (NGOs) funded by the UK and US carried out the April 7 chemical attack in the Damascus, Syria suburb of Douma.

    Russia’s permanent representative to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), Alexander Shulgin, said Russia has irrefutable evidence that there was no chemical weapons incident in Douma.

    “Therefore, we have not just a “high degree of confidence,” as our Western partners claim, but we have incontrovertible evidence that there was no incident on April 7 in Douma and that all this was a planned provocation by the British intelligence services, probably, with the participation of their senior allies from Washington with the aim of misleading the international community and justifying aggression against Syria,” he stated. –Sputnik

    Shulgin added that the US, UK and France are not interested in conducting an objective investigation of the attack site. “They put the blame on the Syrian authorities in advance, without even waiting for the OPCW mission to begin to establish the possible facts of the use of chemical weapons in Syria,” he said.

    The nine-member OPCW mission people has yet to deploy to the city of Douma according to the organization’s Chief, citing pending security issues.

    “The Team has not yet deployed to Douma. The Syrian and the Russian officials who participated in the preparatory meetings in Damascus have informed the FFM Team that there were still pending security issues to be worked out before any deployment could take place. In the meantime the Team was offered by the Syrian authorities that they could interview 22 witnesses who could be brought to Damascus,” OPCW Director-General Ahmet Uzumcu said as quoted by the organization.

    The Russian Envoy says that the controversial “White Helmets” were one of the anti-Assad “pseudo-humanitarian NGOs” which staged the event. As Disobedient Media and others have reported, the White Helmets are funded in large part by the United States.

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    “The Syrian Civil Defense Force (aka the White Helmets) is funded in part by United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Included here are two links showing contracts awarded by USAID to Chemonics International Inc. (DBA Chemonics). The first award was in the sum of $111.2 million and has a Period of Performance (POP) from January 2013 to June 2017. It states that the purpose of the award will be to use the funds for managing a “quick-response mechanism supporting activities that pursue a peaceful transition to a democratic and stable Syria.” The second was in the sum of $57.4 million and has a POP from August 2015 to August 2020. This award was designated to be used in the “Syria Regional Program II” which is a part of the Support Which Implements Fast Transitions IV (SWIFT IV) program.” Via Disobedient Media

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    Moscow says they have confirmed that “these structures [NGOs] on a fee-based basis cooperate with the governments of the United States, the UK and some other countries.”

    Russian experts who conducted the verification of reports on the use of chemical weapons in the Syrian city of the Douma, found participants of video filming, presented as evidence of the supposedly occurring chemotherapy, according to the Russian Envoy to OPCW. –Sputnik

    “Everything has been developing according to the script that was prepared in Washington. There is no doubt that Americans are playing the ‘first violin’ in all of this. The United States, the United Kingdom, France and some other countries after the “fake” addition from the White Helmets and their ilk in Douma, immediately pounced upon the Syrian authorities with accusations,” Shulgin said.

    Meanwhile, the U.S. has alerted the OPCW that Russia “may have tampered” with the chemical attack site in Douma…

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    “It is our understanding the Russians may have visited the attack site,” U.S. Ambassador Kenneth Ward said at a meeting of the OPCW in The Hague on Monday.

    “It is our concern that they may have tampered with it with the intent of thwarting the efforts of the OPCW Fact-Finding Mission to conduct an effective investigation,” he said. His comments at the closed-door meeting were obtained by Reuters.

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov shot back in a BBC interview, saying “I can guarantee that Russia has not tampered with the site.”

    Earlier, Britain’s delegation to the OPCW accused Russia and the Syrian government of preventing the international watchdog’s inspectors from reaching Douma.

    The inspectors aim to collect samples, interview witnesses and document evidence to determine whether banned toxic munitions were used, although they are not permitted to assign blame for the attack. –Reuters

    “Unfettered access is essential,” the British delegation said in a statement. “Russia and Syria must cooperate.”

    Moscow says the OPCW delay is due to the Western air strikes. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the British accusation that Russia was to blame for holding up the inspections was “groundless”.

    “We called for an objective investigation. This was at the very beginning after this information [of the attack] appeared. Therefore allegations of this towards Russia are groundless,” Peskov said.

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    On Friday we reported that Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow has “irrefutable evidence” that the attack – which allegedly killed over 40 people, was staged with the help of a foreign secret service.

    “We have irrefutable evidence that this was another staged event, and that the secret services of a certain state that is now at the forefront of a Russophobic campaign was involved in this staged event,” he said during a press conference according to AFP.

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    According to defense ministry spokesman, Major General Igor Konashenkov, the Kremlin has evidence that Britain was behind the attack.

    Quoted by Reuters, he said: “We have… evidence that proves Britain was directly involved in organising this provocation.”

    As RT further adds, the Russian Defense Ministry presented what it says is “proof that the reported chemical weapons attack in Syria was staged.” It also accused the British government of pressuring the perpetrators to speed up the “provocation.” During a briefing on Friday, the ministry showed interviews with two people, who, it said, are medical professionals working in the only hospital operating in Douma, a town near the Syrian capital, Damascus.

    During a briefing on Friday, the ministry showed interviews with two people, who, it said, are medical professionals working in the only hospital operating in Douma, a town near the Syrian capital, Damascus.

    During a briefing on Friday, the ministry showed interviews with two people, who, it said, are medical professionals working in the only hospital operating in Douma, a town near the Syrian capital, Damascus.

    In the interviews released to the media, the two men reported how footage was shot of people dousing each other with water and treating children, which was claimed to show the aftermath of the April 7 chemical weapons attack. The patients shown in the video suffered from smoke poisoning and the water was poured on them by their relatives after a false claim that chemical weapons were used, the ministry said.

    “Please, notice. These people do not hide their names. These are not some faceless claims on the social media by anonymous activists. They took part in taking that footage,” said Konashenkov.

    “The Russian Defense Ministry also has evidence that Britain had a direct involvement in arranging this provocation in Eastern Ghouta,” the general added, referring to the neighborhood of which Douma is part. “We know for certain that between April 3 and April 6 the so-called White Helmets were seriously pressured from London to speed up the provocation that they were preparing.”

    According to Konashenkov, the group, which was a primary source of photos and footage of the purported chemical attack, was informed of a large-scale artillery attack on Damascus planned by the Islamist group Army of Islam, which controlled Douma at the time. The White Helmets were ordered to arrange the provocation after retaliatory strikes by the Syrian government forces, which the shelling was certain to lead to, he said.

    The UK rejected the accusations, with British UN Ambassador Karen Pierce calling them “grotesque,” “a blatant lie” and “the worst piece of fake news we’ve yet seen from the Russian propaganda machine.”

    So when will Moscow release their evidence for the whole world to see? Or is it maybe waiting for the US to first release its own proof that Assad launched the attack?

    If so, we’ll be waiting for a long time.

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