- Countries On The UK's "High Risk" Travel List
Countries On The UK’s “High Risk” Travel List
Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/17/2020 – 02:45In a blow for many UK holidaymakers, France was added to the list of ‘high risk’ countries from 4am on Saturday 15 August. The announcement, made late last week, means that all but essential travel is now advised against and returning travellers will have to quarantine for 14 days.
As Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes, France had previously been on the UK’s list of ‘travel corridors’, allowing unrestricted travel, but is now joined by the Netherlands, Malta, Monaco, the Turks & Caicos islands, and Aruba as one of the latest places to have this exemption removed.
You will find more infographics at Statista
After Spain, France is the second-most popular international destination for UK residents, over ten million of which visited the country in 2019.
With quarantine awaiting from the early hours of Saturday, there are reports of a scramble to return home before the new rules come into place.
In response on Friday, France’s secretary of state for European affairs tweeted:
“A British decision which we regret and which will lead to reciprocal measures, hoping for a return to normality as soon as possible.”
- Israeli-UAE Peace Deal Marks Tectonic Shift In Middle Eastern Balance Of Power
Israeli-UAE Peace Deal Marks Tectonic Shift In Middle Eastern Balance Of Power
Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/17/2020 – 02:00By SouthFront,
The Middle East is on the brink of the new tectonic shift in the regional balance of power. The previous years were marked by the growth of the Iranian and Hezbollah influence and the decrease of the US grip on the region. The January 2020 started with the new Iranian-US confrontation that had all chances to turn into an open war. August 202 appeared to mark the first peace agreement between an Arab state and Israel in more than 25 years.
Israel and the United Arab Emirates have reached a historical peace agreement. US President Donald Trump announced the breakthrough agreement on August 13, calling Israel and the UAE “great friends” of his country. In a joint statement, Israel, the UAE and the U.S. said the agreement will advance peace in the Middle East. The statement praised the “bold diplomacy” and “vision” of the three country’s leaders.
Delegations from Israel and the UAE are expected to meet within a few weeks to sign bilateral agreements regarding investment, tourism, direct flights, security, telecommunications, technology, energy, healthcare, culture, the environment, the establishment of reciprocal embassies, and other areas of mutual benefit.
In the framework of the peace agreement, Israel will suspend declaring sovereignty over areas outlined in Netanyahu’s “Vision for Peace” in the Western Bank. Also, Tel Aviv will reportedly focus its efforts on “expanding ties with other countries in the Arab and Muslim world.” The agreement will also provide Muslims with greater access to the Al-Aqsa Mosque and other holy sites in the Old City of Jerusalem. It still remains in question how Israel will comply with its part of the deal as the annexation of Palestinian territories is the cornerstone of its regional policy.
In the near future, the United States will likely work to motivate other Gulf states to follow the UAE’s footsteps. In particular, another US regional ally, Saudi Arabia, is already widely known for keeping close ties with Israel in the field of security and military cooperation. Both states are allies of Washington and are engaged in a regional standoff against the Iranian-led coalition of Shiite forces.
The support of the UAE-Israeli agreement is also a logical step for the Trump administration’s regional policy, which is based on the two main cornerstones: the unconditional support of Israel and the confrontation with Iran. Through such moves, Washington may hope to create a broader Israeli-Arab coalition through which it will try to consolidate the shirking influence and contain the ongoing Iranian expansion in the region. At the same time, the overtures with Israel, which has undertaken wide and successful efforts to destabilize neighboring Arab states, could cause a public backlash among the Arab population and contribute to its further dissatisfaction with the course of its leadership. All these developments, together with the consisted Iranian policy aimed at the defense of Palestinians, will increase the popularity of Iran as not only defender of Shiites across the Middle East, but all Muslims in general. Tehran has been seeking to achieve this goal for years and achieved a particular progress in the field. The US-Israeli aggressive policy in the region also played an important role in fact promoting the popularity of the so-called Axis of Resistance. Now, the Iranian soft power in Arab states will become even more noticeable and create additional threats to Gulf states involved in a direct confrontation with it.
The Saudi Kingdom, as the main candidate for the next peace deal, will find itself in an especially shaky position. It is already involved in the long, bloody, and unsuccessful intervention in Yemen, with Yemen’s Houthis regularly conducting cross-border raids into Saudi Arabia and even striking its capital, Riyadh. Also, the Saudi leadership has a long-standing problem with the oppressed Shia minority, protests of which are regularly and violently suppressed by Saudi forces. Other factors are the apparent economic and social problems, not least due to Riyadh’s own adventures on the oil market and the coronavirus crisis. Therefore, at some moment the Saudi regime may easily find itself on the brink of collapse under the weight of its own social, political and economic mistakes, and controversial policies on the international arena. And it’s highly unlikely that the friends in Tel Aviv or Washington will decide to undertake any extraordinary steps to rescue the current political regime in the Saudi kingdom.
- The Evolution Of Fiat Money (Part 3): Where Is This All Going? (Spoiler Alert – Nowhere Good!)
The Evolution Of Fiat Money (Part 3): Where Is This All Going? (Spoiler Alert – Nowhere Good!)
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 23:30Authored by ‘ICE-9’ via The Burning Platform blog,
Read Part 1 of 3 “Physical Money & The Limits Of War” here…
Read Part 2 of 3 “The Victory Of Fiat Money, Endless Wars, & The Coming Age of Subjugation” here…
Where Is This All Going?
Like any confidence game or Ponzi scheme, endless “growth” using any form of money cannot be sustained indefinitely, and the creditor / political class knows this and are preparing to unleash the inevitable crash that plunges the globe into an economic dark ages from which they shall rule absolutely and where what amenities remain shall be monopolized to themselves. We see our expectations for the future being managed downwards, promises of opportunity replaced with visions of “safety”, individualism and self-sufficiency publically scorned as “we are all in this together”, and the inchoate beginnings of the ecological peasant religion of “Climate Change”. Some review of the philosophical history that got us to this point will suffice.
One reason the 19th and early 20th century German state was such an implacable foe to the creditor class and their privately owned central banks was its embrace of the End of History as formulated by Georg Hegel and adopted by the Prussian state and later the German Emperors. Hegel saw history as a progression of wars with history being the documentation of political struggles between people of different states, and people within states. Wars and rebellions arose because people existed in states operating without what Hegel termed “objectivity, truth, and ethical life”. Once the free and noble state emerged and, through its rightful conquest of neighboring states and assimilation of their peoples into this “objectivity, truth, and ethical life”, happiness and human fulfilment would abound, the need for conflict cease, war would no longer be waged, and the documentation of wars and struggles that Hegel defined as history would end, and so the End of History would descend as universal peace and freedom. Thus Hegel’s version of the End of History placed all societal institutions – including central banks – subsumed to the state, and that precluded a privately owned central bank in a German Empire as this would only serve its owners. And all Germanic peoples were targeted for eventual assimilation into “objectivity, truth, and ethical life” – Germanic peoples where privately owned central banks already existed.
To combat the German Empire’s vision of “objectivity, truth, and ethical life” a competing version of Hegel’s End of History was formulated by Karl Marx and spread as communism among the German working class and western European intelligentsia. This co-opted version replaced politics with economics, and cast history as the documentation not of political struggles, but of economic struggles between owners of the means of production, the states that protected their privileges, and the alienated proletariat. All societal institutions were again to be subsumed to the communist state but this time happiness and human fulfilment would abound and the need for conflict cease et cetera when private ownership of property was abolished and economic equality of outcome was established.
By the end of WWII the privately owned central banks, with their powers to issue or withhold credit and set interest rates, had become the de facto controllers of state, and with the threat of “objectivity, truth, and ethical life” finally eliminated, and communism accepted as a necessary menace to promote the spread of “democracy” and US Dollar financing, the creditor class began to rework both Hegel and Marx. Thus in the late 1930s, at the University of Chicago and funded by “philanthropic” money from John D. Rockefeller, began the theoretical amalgamation of both Hegel and Marx into a revised “End of History” where most of the world’s inhabitants would fight to the death to establish the suzerainty of the “Philosopher Kings” – i.e., the highest echelon of the creditor class – as the global nobility and the “End of History” would descend when both economic poverty and political subjugation were established equally among men. So in this new version of the “End of History”, happiness and human fulfilment would abound when there is a complete absence of wealth and total political disenfranchisement among the vast hordes of humanity that somehow managed to survive the catastrophic wars needed to achieve their universal destitution.
This is what is publicly known and overtly referred to today in Neoconservative circles as the “New World Order” – it is the creditor / political class blueprint for their end game – the “End of History” and total world domination with Plato’s versions of a completely static society and “Justice” thrown in.
Key to these machinations of the creditor / political class for their implementation of this revised “End of History” is the elimination of sovereign nations through war, their insolvency resulting from prosecution of endless-endless war, and citizen disenfranchisement via “democracy”. The endless-endless wars will eventually bankrupt all nations and as they are beholden to their privately owned central banks for their operating funds, these banks can either withhold the issuance of credit or raise interest rates to unsustainable levels that trigger hyper-deflation, social instability, and total economic and national security collapse. A nation that can no longer fund itself can no longer exist among other nations and will devolve into a failed state and this is how the “New World Order” will progress, one bankrupt nation and IMF / World Bank bailout loan at a time. The endless-endless wars also have the added benefit of killing a large portion of the young, fighting fit men in a society and thereby eliminate the major threat of opposition and rebellion on the home front. And the imposition of “democracy”, where maximum participation in “voting” is promoted by enfranchising the likes of illegal aliens, teenagers, the mentally retarded, dementia sufferers, antisocial felons, and all manner of peoples that have no business deciding anything, will eventually result not in increased participation, but in large segments of the population giving up on the political process entirely as their influence is diluted to the point of an exercise in futility. Thus out of the economic and social chaos of protracted war and national bankruptcy these new voices added to “democracy” will eventually be presented with the “choice” of giving up national sovereignty to the extra-governmental political and financial organizations in exchange for the “stability”, “safety”, and a guaranteed “living wage” provided by these same global extra-governmental organizations that the creditor / political class has been so meticulous to cultivate over these last 60 years. With sovereignty “suspended” over an apathetic, reactionary, and uneducated public, there will effectively be no more “citizenship” and thus no challenge to the new rule of the “Philosopher Kings”. Thus we get not only the “End of History”, but the death of citizenship and a return to the subjugation of the medieval period – the “Neo-feudalism” so often mention in current writings.
Plato plays a central role in the imposition of the “End of History”. Where Hegel and Marx were the “why”, Plato is the “how”. The core tenant in Platonic thought is his concept of “Justice”, being no more than the natural way of things – e.g., the strong rule over the weak, and the ultimate strength in the Platonic system is logic. Thus a small group of “Philosopher Kings” represent the highest order of society and rule devoid of empathy and make all decisions based on logic alone, empower decision delivery to the next class level consisting of “enforcers” trained in the martial arts and music that ensure absolute compliance to the decisions of the “Philosopher Kings” by the mass of everyone else that decides nothing. As this societal structure represents perfect “Justice”, it is immutable and thus the “End of History” ushers in a completely static social; hierarchy from which no one can escape. The creditor / political class in its role as “Philosopher Kings” is thereby ensured its eternal position of rule over the entirety of humanity and is what is represented as the All Seeing Eye, which has nothing to do with omniscience or vigilance, hovering above the base of the pyramid that represents the mass of everyone else under the tyrannical rule of empathy-free logic, universal poverty, and absolute political disenfranchisement.
We are presently nearing the end of a 450 year phase in the motives behind what has become the greatest power in the world – the power to conjure armies out of thin air using credit, the ability to elevate or destroy nations and peoples by the setting of interest rates in one direction or the other, and the ability to vanquish armies by the provision or withholding of credit. In a fiat system all political decisions not related to the creation and cost of credit are secondary. But as pure fiat money is now wholly divorced from labor inputs, it is wholly worthless and so profits derived from pure fiat money are illusory as they have no base unit value determinant. The future of continual fiat debasement is secured not through budget deficits but through the advancement of “efficiency” and increasing prevalence of automation and declining labor inputs into the production of goods and services. We see “efficiency” now reduce labor inputs to that of building and maintaining robots for manufacture and transport of goods, and when robots build other robots and artificial intelligence makes decisions, labor inputs are removed entirely and the jig is up for money. What we presently hear about “de-industrialization” is all just fancy talk to describe ever increasing industrial efficiency through automation. Thus the end of growth and the end of money approaches nearer with each incremental “efficiency” gain, and growth cannot be sustain by profitable endeavors not backed by labor inputs. Instead, we have the increasing illusion of profit created by continually removing labor inputs until zero labor input is reached and all produced things become truly valueless.
At the point where money represents zero labor input and has no intrinsic value, it is transformed into a purely political tool, backed now by “enforcers” to ensure it is the only medium of exchange and thus, the coercion of human behavior becomes the new form of “value” in the “New World Order”. At the “End of History” when technology triumphs and human inputs are no longer required to produce goods and services, the ability to control human action by the distribution or withholding of money becomes the unit measure of “value”. Thus we see the groundwork being laid for digital “money”, “social credit scores”, the “surveillance state”, and “universal basic income” as the nascent means of coercing mass human behavior as “technology” will be the only thing remaining that possesses some human input and therefore, intrinsic “value”, whether behavior is focused or unfocused. Here it becomes possible to create a trillion dollar business based solely upon the persuasion and harvesting of human inputs in the form of mouse clicks.
So at the “End of History”, labor is unnecessary, and as universal “peace” has descended after the conclusion of endless-endless war and total bankruptcy of the fiat system, the “citizen soldier” and “citizen laborer” too become unnecessary. Thus the “End of History” will bring about both the “End of Citizenship” and the “End of Work”, transform the bulk of humanity into obsolescence, and leave the logical and devoid of empathy “Philosopher Kings” no choice but initiate mass depopulation programs as not doing so would risk the “peace” and potentially start the revival of history.
So when money has no value, generates only illusory profits, and is disbursed by edict to those who are increasingly unnecessary, money has then transformed from the “means to power” to “power in of its self”. Society then devolves into one where many are not only alienated from the means of production, but now are alienated from not only the means to experiencing a fulfilling existence, but from the means of existence itself. Endeavors related to the pursuit of profit are removed from the power equation, and with profit motive gone much of human endeavor formerly occupied by tradecraft and commerce becomes meaningless. At this point there is no more need for the “Philosopher Kings” to stand on pretense, as “power in of itself” becomes their human motivation backed by the perfectly “just” and entirely static societal structure. When “peace” descends over the “End of History”, the veneer of past civil society that kept some form of balance in check is permanently effaced.
Thus the “End of History” and rise of the “Philosopher Kings” shall usher in an age of unparalleled violence, barbarism, and human meaninglessness that the ever declining numbers of people under empathy-free logical rule will yearn for a return to the days of history and an end to the “End of History”.
So What Is to Be Done?
Do I think the creditor / political class will achieve their “End of History”? No.
Do I think the creditor / political class will destroy everyone and everything in their attempt to achieve their “End of History”? Yes, most definitely.
It all begins to make sense once one accepts that the sole purpose now for the existence of the United States is the never ending global accumulation of US Dollar fiat debt across every sector of every society of every nation so to initiate the simultaneous financial, cultural, and spiritual destruction of all people’s collective will to exist separately as nations.
We have had the synthesis wrong for far too long because we view synthesis from our own biased perspective towards self. Once we realize that there really is a small and incredibly powerful and psychopathic group out there that wants to entirely destroy and enslave us, the “End of History” can become synthesis – but it’s their synthesis – and only then can the seeming disconnect between thesis (the world is violent and chaotic) and antithesis (the world is peace and predictable) arising from our bias of self-perspective be joined through their synthesis. Thus then can what initially appear as stochastic insanity be finally recognized as perfectly logical and purposeful objective. The siren song of “Globalism” is the creditor / political classes’ first call for initiates willing to embrace their servitude in the “End of History” and help gather up the easily persuaded and put them to work during the next call, which will not be persuasive and will not be aimed at those so willing. The final call will be for all those who remain uncommitted to get in the boxcars.
The transition from physical money representing a true store of value to that of paper money divorced from labor inputs that represents nothing and is used as a political tool has not made mankind more refined or evolved. It has instead enabled the ruling creditor / political class to now endlessly wage endless wars of no advantage to its combatants and at zero financial and personal risk to the instigators.
There is no coincidence that “World Wars” began one year after the creation of the Federal Reserve System, and “World Wars” will continue in the form of endless-endless wars so long as the Federal Reserve System or any other global fiat money system exists to conjure armies out of thin air. Fiat money has enabled endless research into the methods and efficiency of waging war which is at its base level the science of how to kill more and more people using fewer and fewer resources, and this science, when combined with finance, psychology, and biology is more and more successful with every passing year.
Fiat money has reduced citizenship to the levels of unpaid mercenary and tax slave in the pursuit of maximizing global accumulation of US Dollar debt financing. And, as fiat money is now a political tool, it has corrupted every facet of society leading to the moral collapse of nearly every state and societal institution and, most significantly and by design, declines in the collective will of peoples to exist as separate nations. Thus it is fiat money that is the barbarous invention, and the gold and silver coinage of old the noble relic. And most importantly, the creditor / political class that controls the issuance and price of fiat money is the greatest single menace to the people of the world today.
Thus with this realization it becomes clear what needs to be done. And what needs to be done will not be accomplished peacefully – there is just no other way, for the creditor / political class is like a weed that will not go away until it is pulled out by its roots, burned into ashes, and the soil from whence it grew salted for eternity…
- Air Force Uses Reconnaissance Microrobots For Base Security Missions
Air Force Uses Reconnaissance Microrobots For Base Security Missions
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 23:00The Air Force has added throwable reconnaissance microrobots to their arsenal for base security missions, read a military press release.
Airman of the 96th Security Forces Squadron (96th SFS), at Eglin Air Force Base, located in western Florida, were supplied with Throwbots, a football-sized robot that remotely transmits video and audio to the operator, to help them clear buildings, locate and identify suspects, and confirm the layout of a room during hostage situations. The robot will also be used for vehicle inspections at base checkpoints and random anti-terrorism missions.
“It took five minutes for me to learn how to use it,” said Leon Gray, from the 96th SFS, after examining the device at a defense trade show.
Gray said, “it quickly became apparent how our security personnel could utilize this tool in our operations.”
Task & Purpose noted Throwbot has already been spotted in the popular video game Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six Siege.
“If this gadget sounds familiar, it should. In the first-person shooter Rainbow Six Siege, players use wheeled drones to scout outbuildings, scan for enemy players, and even serve as stationary cameras,” Task & Purpose said.
The Throwbot is rugged, can survive a 30 feet fall and travel on uneven terrain. Airman can even tow up to 4 pounds of gear with the robot. A camera on the front allows the operator to remotely control the device with a handheld joystick.
Add Throwbot to the long list of robots the military is quickly adopting in the last couple of years as trillions of dollars have been spent to modernize forces.
- The Most Revealing Poll Of All: Gun Sales
The Most Revealing Poll Of All: Gun Sales
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 22:30Authored by Patricia McCarthy via AmericanThinker.com,
For decades, the Democratic party has wanted to abrogate the Second Amendment, to ban the sale of guns of any and all calibers, sizes, shapes and potential uses. They have long sought to limit the amount of ammo per gun and were just foiled again on that score.
The left has yet to realize the obvious, that criminals do not obey laws of any kind, least of all gun laws. So deluded are the gun-banning Democrats, they do not believe that Americans have the right to defend themselves against said criminals. These Democrats who want to run our lives all have armed security themselves, but we peons are, in their warped view, are to be forever denied the rights they bestow upon themselves.
Like the imbecilic Beto O’Rourke before her, Kamala Harris advocates gun confiscation; she wants the tyrannical government she and Joe are promoting to go into our homes and seize our legally-obtained weapons of self-defense.
Like Hitler, Stalin and Mao, seizing the firearms of the citizenry is the first step toward despotism. But the left misjudges the spirit of Americans who have escaped being indoctrinated by the anti-American, anti-constitutionalism that the left in academia and the media have been pushing for decades. Most of us take the Constitution and its accompanying Bill of Rights very seriously. Both have served this nation well for two-hundred and forty-four years. No self-righteous, virtue-signaling political lefty elitist is going to convince Americans who support the Constitution that the government has the right to confiscate their guns.
Well before Biden’s selection of Harris as his running mate, in the first half of 2020, gun sales have increased by 95%, (ten million guns), ammunition sales are up by 139%.
The numbers eclipse all of 2019. The highest increase is among black men and women, 58.2%.
Can you blame them?
The wanton violence that has plagued Democrat-run cities like Minneapolis, Portland, Chicago (homicides up 139%), New York (13% increase in shooting incidents, 23% increase in homicides), Seattle, D.C., Los Angeles, Atlanta, etc. over the past several months with the blessings of the Democrat governors and mayors that run them has taught law-abiding blacks that the police are being driven from these cities, betrayed by the elected leaders charged with enforcing the law. Violent crime has spiked in all those places. And to this day, no Democrat has spoken out against Antifa or Black Lives Matter, or the catastrophic damage they have wrought upon those communities, apparently in the mistaken belief that a majority of Americans are sympathetic to the specious causes of the vandals. The massive increase in gun sales would seem to belie that tenet.
While it has long been mostly republicans who support gun rights and the NRA, the enormous expansion of gun ownership most certainly includes former Democrats who will not likely vote for Biden/Harris, both of whom favor confiscation like the rest of the left. For that reason and for her other past prosecutorial policies, not all blacks support Harris. So it is safe to conclude that the colossal increase in gun sales is perhaps the most telling poll of all. Guns and ammo are expensive and these numbers represent legal sales and do not account for the illegal acquisitions of guns. Bottom line? People no longer feel safe in their own communities and they are seeing the police they respect and rely upon be demeaned, defunded and directed to stand down while rioters and looters destroy their small businesses and downtowns. And through all this monstrous violence, the democrats insist on calling the vandals “peaceful protesters.” They are anything but peaceful. They are well-funded fascist groups who mean to destroy the United States as founded. The death of George Floyd was the spark that lit the fires, covid19 the gift that has kept on giving to those working hard to sabotage our great nation.
The rise in gun ownership has spiked more than any previous time period and is the highest since the FBI began recording the statistics 22 years ago.
The alleged lead by Biden in the polls most likely does not account for the huge number of Americans who may have voted Democrat in the past but are not going to vote Democrat again if it means being stripped of the guns they’ve only recently purchased and now feel they need for self-defense. And all the while, the left has promoted and blessed the violence. They have actually encouraged it, they’ve emboldened the rioters by refusing to call what they do by its name: brutal insurrection.
From day one of the violence in Seattle and Portland, President Trump offered federal help but those cities’ mayors and each of the others whose cities were being ravaged declined his offer. As a result, half of all black-owned businesses in the affected cities have been destroyed by the rioting or lost to the lockdown. It is hard to take seriously the mantra that “black lives matter” when in fact they have become a mere political tool of the left. Most of the media failed to report on the cold-blooded murder of a five-year-old boy by his adult neighbor. Why? The child was white, the murderer black which does not fit the left’s narrative of the day. Mayors Bill de Blasio of New York and Muriel Bowser of Washington, D.C. are all hat, no cattle, when it comes to actually caring about the lives being devastated by the disorder they have willingly allowed. As President Trump said last week, “this election will determine the future of private gun ownership in the United States.”
Biden is clearly lost in a fog of confusion due to his mental decline and will say anything his handlers put on the teleprompter but Kamala Harris is as far left a candidate who has ever run for high office; she is Bernie Sanders in a dress. She and her fellow “progressives” mean what they say; they mean to effect a defenseless society.
Will a majority of Americans choose to be disarmed like the Germans under Hitler, the Russians under Stalin and the Chinese under Mao or will they vote to preserve their constitutional right to bear arms? The astronomical surge in gun ownership these past months tells us that no, they will not vote to lose their Second Amendment right. Self-defense is a human right.
“The right of self-defense never ceases. It is among the most sacred, and alike necessary to nations and to individuals.“ –James Monroe
The left, thoroughly deranged by Trump’s 2016 victory, will gladly see our once civil society destroyed if its destruction will see Trump defeated. Their plan is doomed to failure. If gun sales translate to votes, it will ensure his re-election.
- Unpacking Fact From Fiction Behind The USPS Drama
Unpacking Fact From Fiction Behind The USPS Drama
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 22:00https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsWith the left in a collective fit over a conspiracy theory that President Trump is about to steal the election by crippling the US Postal Service, Twitter user @AGHamilton29 has provided a cogent analysis unpacking the latest leftist miasma dominating the news cycle.
Let me make this simple: The idea that Trump is using the USPS to steal the election is a baseless conspiracy theory. There is no evidence to support it.
Let’s go through the actual topics, all of which are being confused to create a state of misinformation and fear.
— (((AG))) (@AGHamilton29) August 16, 2020
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The thread continues… (emphasis ours)
1) Dems are pushing for universal mail-in election. Republicans oppose this and say it creates a possibility for fraud. There is a reasonable compromise, such as what is planned in KY, that would allow absentee ballots for all who want one, early voting, & election day voting.
2) The USPS has been in terrible financial shape for years. It is consistently losing money. Dems want to bail it out. Republicans want it reformed. There is not an immediate fiscal danger as current funding is sufficient through 2021.
2A) The treasury has offered the USPS an additional 10 Billion loan as of the end of July if needed. That loan does come with some strings for reforms, but it does not look like it is needed for immediate operation until late in 2021.
3) Trump did go on tv and say he opposes the bailout of USPS, and specifically cited his opposition to universal mail voting (which he says helps Dems) as the reason. As pointed out in 2, This has been used to suggest he is using USPS to undermine the election.
3A) However, as pointed out in 2, there is no immediate funding issue that would hinder the USPS from supporting the election.
Funding is not the problem with a massive wave of mail-based voting, deadlines and timing are.
4) The USPS has done a bunch of regular actions that are now being cited as irregular by people who don’t know better. One example is the removal and moving of pick-up mailboxes from low-traffic areas. USPS has agreed to pause it anyways to avoid the controversy now.
5) As the USPS is an organization with serious fiscal issues and due to COVID-19 impact, they are undergoing delays in shipping and structural changes/cuts in response. The union/activists oppose these and thus are trying to tie them to the election.
5A) Many of these actions have occurred before (replacing/eliminating sorting machines outside hubs). Every agency/group is taking cuts and reduced hours right now. There is no evidence those changes have anything to do with or would affect the election.
6) The real problem with the election is the regular deadlines are impossible to ensure with USPS shipping times. Some states allow ballot requests 4 days before the election! That’s why USPS sent out letters to states warning them of need for changes in timing to protect votes.
In conclusion, this is going to be one of the most logistically difficult elections in history.
Mail-in voting creates real problems and concerns. There are solutions that require compromise.
None of that supports the partisan conspiracy mentioned at the beginning.
Meanwhile…
I went to the #PostOffice this morning and it was closed! What has @realDonaldTrump done? This is criminal! pic.twitter.com/VTmjvl8d3L
— Jie Boden (@JieBoden) August 16, 2020
CNN: Post Office improperly enabled workers who helped Clinton campaign https://t.co/uVy3xIAxk3
— Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) August 16, 2020
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The problem with melting down the American public sphere into a conspiracist sludge is there’s no such thing as “unmelting” something, and so now we’re in an enormous amount of trouble, & people are posting iconography of Leviathan mailboxes that will unite the body politic. pic.twitter.com/emSVtmLRr2
— Omri Ceren (@omriceren) August 16, 2020
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Taylor Swift thinks Trump is stealing the mail https://t.co/gQDRGK0SXp
— Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) August 15, 2020
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- 49 People Shot In Last 72 Hours In New York As City Hits Its "Expiration Date"
49 People Shot In Last 72 Hours In New York As City Hits Its “Expiration Date”
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 21:31The gentrified New York City that made the Big Apple the envy of billionaires, oligarchs, child molesters and money laundering criminals from around the world is no more, and in its place is the hellish New York from the 1970s.
According to Gothamist, between Thursday and Saturday, 49 people were shot in the largest city in the United States, as the uptick in gun violence continues this summer and is rushing to catch up with that other progressive paradise, Chicago.
Putting the surge in context, the number of people shot over the three days is five times more than the eight who were shot during the same days last year according to the Washington Examiner. While most of the shooting victims were merely wounded, at least six people were killed by gunshot wounds over the 3-day interval, compared to three homicides that took place during the same time last year.
Year to date, there have been 1,087 shooting victims so far in 888 different incidents throughout the city, roughly double the crime observed in 2019. Last year at this time, there had been 577 shooting victims in 488 incidents in New York City.
Among those murdered was an off-duty corrections officer who worked at Rikers Island. John Jeff, 28, had just left a party in Queens at 3 a.m. on Saturday morning when he was shot in the head and chest.
“Early this morning, the Correction Officers’ Benevolent Association was notified that New York City Correction Officer John Jeff, assigned to the Anna M. Kross Center on Rikers Island, was found dead in South Jamaica Queens. He sustained multiple gunshot wounds. He was 28 years old and was on the job for just over two years with his whole life and career ahead of him. He was well-liked and highly regarded by his fellow officers,” Correction Officers Benevolent Association President Benny Boscio Jr. said in a statement.
Neighbors reported hearing multiple gunshots outside their homes, and sources told ABC 7 the killing appeared to be planned.
“I heard nine shots,” resident Raymond Leslie said. “You really don’t want to come out on these streets at night because it’s getting increasingly dangerous.”
Mayor Bill de Blasio, whose actions – or lack thereof – have been blamed by many for triggering a historic exodus among New York residents, denounced the shooting tweeting, “This is a tragedy.”
“Chirlane and I are keeping this young man’s family, loved ones and brothers and sisters in @CorrectionNYC in our hearts today. An investigation into this cowardly attack is ongoing. If you have any information please contact the NYPD,” the mayor tweeted.
This is a tragedy.
Chirlane and I are keeping this young man’s family, loved ones and brothers and sisters in @CorrectionNYC in our hearts today.
An investigation into this cowardly attack is ongoing. If you have any information please contact the NYPD. https://t.co/YcQn7DV21q
— Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) August 15, 2020
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
The scale of New York’s shooting problem becomes apparent when one considers that just the start of this month marked more shootings in New York City so far this year than in all of 2019, a continuation of the violent protests, rioting and looting that was unleashed in New York in recent months.
As the Washington Examiner notes, “protests, riots, and vandalism sparked by the death of George Floyd have increased the anti-police sentiment in the city at a time when de Blasio has pledged to strip $1 billion from the city’s police budget and disbanded the plainclothes anti-crime unit. Hundreds of police officers have filed their retirement papers in recent weeks as tensions between the force and the public become more strained by the increase in crime.“
Meanwhile, as we reported last week, Thousands of New Yorkers have been fleeing the city in recent weeks, citing the uptick in violence as well as coronavirus restrictions.
“We reached our New York expiration date,” one New York City mother recently told the New York Post. “Things weren’t heading in the right direction. What we’re seeing now isn’t at all surprising.”
Meanwhile, as people packed their bags one last time for New Jersey, the Hamptons, and other local areas, Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo pleaded that they return to the city, even offering to cook them dinner.
“I literally talk to people all day long who are now in their Hamptons house who also lived here, or in their Hudson Valley house or in their Connecticut weekend house, and I say, ‘You got to come back, when are you coming back?’” Cuomo said earlier this month. “‘We’ll go to dinner, I’ll buy you a drink, come over, I’ll cook.’”
Unfortunately, since he can no longer even assure them that they won’t be murdered in broad daylight, we doubt anyone will care much for Cuomo’s desperate platitudes.
- Three Things We Learned Last Week
Three Things We Learned Last Week
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 21:30By Ye Xie, Bloomberg macro commentator
Three things we learned last week:
1. Bond bulls’ faith is being challenged by data and vaccine hopes.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose above 70 bps for the first time in more than a month, and gold suffered one of the biggest single-day slumps of the past two decades. While heavy bond supply contributed to the selloff in Treasuries, it also appears to be a repricing of the global economy to the upside following better-than-expected economic and inflation data.
The bond yield is also tracking the relative performance of Covid-hit stocks, suggesting optimism toward a vaccine. This is a chart comparing bond yields with the ratio between the MSCI World Hotels Restaurants & Leisure Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index.
So far the yield increase has had a limited impact on risky assets. The assumption is that the Fed needs to cap yields to help the economy heal. But what if there’s a vaccine available in the next three months? How much of a yield increase will the Fed tolerate? The minutes of the central bank’s July policy meeting will be released Aug. 19 and may shed some light on the discussion about forward guidance. In any case, everyone’s favorite the 5y30 curve steepener trade is working again.
2. China’s uneven recovery slows with the PBOC staying put.
Data last week showed weaker-than-expected industrial production, retail sales, and credit growth, suggesting China’s economic recovery is losing some momentum. The PBOC is expected to keep the one-year prime loan rate steady this week, maintaining its neutral stance. Expect a range-bound bond market. BTW, the central bank’s balance sheet data apparently show it hasn’t secretly bought government bonds, as some speculated.
3. IPOs of Chinese companies in the U.S. are booming even amid scrutiny.
Despite the crackdown on TikTok and WeChat, Chinese companies haven’t abandoned the U.S. capital markets for fund-raising. Housing transaction firm KE Holdings surged 87% on its debut, marking the biggest first-day pop on record among mega Chinese IPOs in the U.S. Eleven Chinese companies, including KE, Li Auto and Kingsoft Cloud, raised at least $100 million in IPOs this year. The IPOs total about $5.7 billion, already double the amount for all of 2019.
Meanwhile, the scrutiny toward Chinese companies continues to increase. On Friday, streaming company Iqiyi tumbled after disclosing that the SEC is investigating and seeking documents cited by short sellers.
- "Short Dollar" Is Now The World's Most Consensus Trade… So It's Time To Go Long
“Short Dollar” Is Now The World’s Most Consensus Trade… So It’s Time To Go Long
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 21:03It’s official: as of this past week, the number of futures contracts amid the speculator community that were net short the DXY (via other FX pairs) was tied for the highest on record going back to the late 1990s.
But one doesn’t need to look at the weekly CFTC data to know that the currency, which until just three months ago was exploding to record highs, has become the worst most popular short: according to Bank of America “short USD” has extended its lead as the most popular trade in 2020 according to the bank’s latest FX and Rates sentiment survey.
However, as discussed previously, the surge in dollar shorts is not so much a secular bet on the dollar decline as a bullish view on its two key pairs, the Euro and the Yen.
As per the BofA survey, the EU Recovery Fund seems to be the main driver of positivity on EUR (Chart 2), with almost a third of investors telling the bank in June they considered it a game changer, while USD bearishness can at least partly be explained by expectations of some erosion of the hegemony of USD as a reserve currency.
Still, as BofA notes, in the current backdrop, risks – both known and unknown – abound and could be a threat to seemingly stretched positions. It is worth bearing in mind however that if the more structural nature of investor views play out – ‘game changing’ recovery fund, changes in reserve and portfolio flows – current positioning could be less of a constraint as benchmarks themselves adjust.
Of course, after last month’s dramatic move, what happens next may seem largely moot.As a reminder, in July, the trade-weighted Dollar saw the largest monthly decline in two and half years, with DXY seeing the steepest drop in a decade.
And, in a world where momentum other trend-following investors have had a dismal year, any trade that has as much continuity as the dollar drop was sure to attract the momentum chasers, and sure enough as Goldman’s Karen Fishman writes on Friday, the DXY move has “renewed focus on momentum-based investors (e.g., Commodity Trading Advisors or CTAs, also known as pattern-chasing robots) and their potential participation in the Dollar sell-off.”
Some background from the Goldman strategist:
Momentum-based trading systems have been popular for decades, given their low correlation with traditional benchmark returns and, therefore, their potential for generating alpha. The strategies tend to have common components, including set rules for entering and exiting positions. Although there are a variety of methods employed to produce a trade signal, many rely on simple moving averages—such that a buy (sell) is triggered if spot moves above (falls below) a specified moving average. Other popular methods include “crossover strategies,” where a trader goes long (short) if a faster-moving average exceeds (breaks below) a slower-moving average, and “breakouts,” where a trader buys (sells) an asset if spot surpasses (undershoots) the prior high (low) over a certain time horizon. For example, the “Turtle Experiment” of 1983 relied primarily on a breakout-based system, according to Faith (2013). Despite the different methodologies, CTAs tend to see similar returns, especially during periods of large market moves (Exhibit 1). In fact, according to Clenow (2013), most of the variation in returns between funds comes from factors such as asset composition, risk level, and position size, rather than the specific trade signal.
So what does Goldman conclude based on inferred CTA positioning? As the bank explains, it finds “a fairly clear message to short the Dollar against G10 currencies, with slightly more mixed signals for high-beta EM crosses” and adds that “even though CTAs are probably already short Dollars, we see scope for further weakness as (i) fresh shorts could be triggered soon and (ii) longer-term investors start to participate as well, particularly in the Euro and other European assets.”
Furthermore, Goldman also claims that the typical August illiquidity could provide further impetus for trend-following strategies, which argue for holding on to Dollar shorts (primarily versus G10 currencies) and adding AUD/NZD longs.
Bottom line: with everyone – literally – on Wall Street now short the dollar, as observed by either CFTC net specs or various sellside surveys, and with Goldman resorting to “inferring” the future of the DXY based on recent momentum (something which even 5 year old Robin Hood trading veterans can do on their own), the only possible real conclusion is that there is virtually nobody else left who can add to dollar shorts, which means that absent some unexpected socio-economic disaster in the US, the only possible move for the dollar at this point is higher.
- Mueller Aide Weissmann Urges DOJ Attorneys 'Not' To Help On Investigations
Mueller Aide Weissmann Urges DOJ Attorneys ‘Not’ To Help On Investigations
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 20:30I recently wrote a column discussing how Democratic leaders, including Vice President Joe Biden, have argued against continuing the investigation by U.S. Attorney John Durham despite growing evidence of misconduct by Justice Department officials and now the first guilty plea by former FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith.
Now, Andrew Weissmann, one of the top prosecutors with Special Counsel Robert Mueller, has derided the Clinesmith plea while actually calling on Justice Department attorneys to refuse to help on ongoing investigations that could implicate aspects of his own prior work.
I was among those who expressed concern when Mueller selected Weissmann due to his history of controversial prosecutorial decisions, including a pattern of prosecutorial overreach in the Enron litigation.
Weissmann’s recent statements (made before the release of his new book on the Russian investigation) have only served to reaffirm those concerns.
Recently, Weissmann wrote an extraordinary and disturbing New York Times op-ed (with former Defense Department special counsel Ryan Goodman). In the column, he appeared to call on Justice Department lawyers to undermine the Durham investigation as well as the investigation by U.S. Attorney John Bash’s investigation into the “unmasking” requests by Obama administration officials. They wrote “Justice Department employees in meeting their ethical and legal obligations, should be well advised not to participate in any such effort.”
Consider that line for a moment…
Weissmann is openly calling on attorneys to refuse to help on investigations that could raise questions about his own decisions. Durham is looking at a pattern errors, false statements, bias, and now criminal conduct in the Russian investigation. There is obviously overlap with the Mueller investigation which discussed many of the same underlying documents and relied on work by some of the same individuals. The failure to address misconduct, bias, or criminal conduct by such individuals would be embarrassing to both Weissmann and Mueller. Despite that obvious conflict of interest, Weissmann is calling on attorneys to stand down.
It is the same troubling position that was once taken by Sally Yates, who told an entire federal agency not to assist the President in his travel ban.
After Weissmann called on Justice Department attorneys not to assist investigations by the Justice Department, Durham disclosed that the first guilty plea would be entered by Clinesmith. That would ordinarily cause embarrassment for someone who was calling for DOJ lawyers to effectively hinder the investigation. Not Weissmann. He has now attacked the criminal plea.
Weissmann mocked Attorney General Bill Barr to explain the difference between the Flynn plea and the Clinesmith plea.
Weissmann tweeted:
“Question for Barr: how are Flynn’s confessed lies to the FBI (repeated to the VP) not a crime, but Clinesmith changing an email (the full version of which he also sent to DOJ) is?
Clinesmith is charged with adding the words ‘not a source’ to an email about Carter Page, but no where does the charge say that is false, i.e. that Page was a source for the CIA. Without that, how is the addition ‘materially’ false?”
Here is Durham theory: even though Clinesmith gave the complete and accurate email to DOJ to use in the Page FISA, when asked by an FBI agent if the CIA had represented IN WRITING that Page was not a source, Clinesmith said yes, when CIA had not said so explicitly in writing. no where is it alleged that Page was in fact a CIA source or, if so, that Clinesmith knew that. How is any of this false or material to the Page FISA, using Barr’s new Flynn materiality standard. It’s not. Two systems of justice at play.”
“Clear from Durham charge that the FBI supervisor wanted to know if CIA confirmed “in writing” that Page was not a source because of distrust of CIA — but whether in writing or not, no allegation that Clinesmith lied about the fact Page was not a source. That’s a federal crime?”
The tweets reveal more about Weissmann than Clinesmith or this guilty plea.
First, Weissmann is completely distorting both the law and the facts to disregard the significance of this guilty plea. The fact that Page was a source for the CIA is not disputed. The Horowitz investigation and various congressional investigations have confirmed that the CIA made clear to Clinesmith that Page was working for United States intelligence, a fact that critically undermined the basis for the original application for secret surveillance. The statement that “no where does the charge say that is false, i.e. that Page was a source for the CIA” is bizarre. The charge is that Clinesmith made this false statement to the court and there is a wealth of evidence to support that charge. It was clearly enough to prompt Clinesmith to take a plea and enter into what appears a cooperative agreement with prosecutors.
Second, the claim that “Clinesmith gave the complete and accurate email to DOJ” would not negate the charge. It was the false information that he gave to the court that mattered. Prosecutorial misconduct often involves telling courts something different from what is known or discussed by prosecutors. Moreover, the implications of such a contrast adds to the need for the investigation that Weissmann has sought to hinder. If other DOJ attorneys and investigators knew that the court was being given false material information, the concerns are magnified not reduced for the Durham investigation. Indeed, it means that this investigation dragged on for many months despite other attorneys knowing that the original claims of Page being a Russian assets were directly contradicted by American intelligence and never disclosed to the Court.
What is astonishing is that the FISA court itself as well as Horowitz have flagged this as a serious matter of false or misleading information. Weissmann however is actively seeking to convince Justice Department lawyers to refuse to help on the investigation.
Weissmann also misrepresents the law and the position of the Justice Department in Flynn. I have been one of the most vocal critics of the plea. It is true that Flynn gave false answers to the investigators. However, he fought the allegations until the Mueller team drained him of his savings and threatened to prosecute his son.
Keep in mind that Flynn was the incoming National Security Adviser and held entirely lawful discussions with Russian diplomats. Even James Comey told President Obama that the discussions were “legit.” Moreover, in December 2016, investigators had found no evidence of any crime by Flynn. They wanted to shut down the investigation; they were overruled by superiors, including FBI special agent Peter Strzok, Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and Director James Comey. Strzok told the investigators to keep the case alive, and McCabe is described as “cutting off” another high-ranking official who questioned the basis for continuing to investigate Flynn. All three officials were later fired, and all three were later found by career officials to have engaged in serious misconduct as part of the Russia investigation. Recently disclosed material indicate that Obama, Biden, and other discussed the use of the Logan Act as a pretense for a criminal charge. The Logan Act criminalizes private negotiations with foreign governments. The Logan Act is widely viewed as unconstitutional and has never been used successfully against any U.S. citizen since the earliest days of the Republic.
Then, in February 2017, Comey circumvented long-standing protocols and ordered an interview with Flynn. Comey later bragged that he “probably wouldn’t have … gotten away with it” in other administrations, but he sent “a couple guys over” to question Flynn, who was settling into his new office as national security adviser. Indeed, Yates recently agreed that Comey “went rogue” on the Flynn matter.
This history is what was detailed to the court in the Flynn motion to dismiss the charge. The materiality point reflected the governing law that indictments require more than mere “relevance” or relatedness but rather a statement that is “reasonably likely to influence the tribunal in making a determination required to be made.” United States v. Weinstock, 231 F.2d 699, 701 (D.C. Cir. 1956) (emphasis added). The distinction with Clinesmith is obvious. Clinesmith lied to the Court in an investigation to influence a “determination required to be made” by the court.
Imagine if this were not the rule. It would mean that any prosecutor could intentionally lie to a court to secure warrants or other actions without the risk of a criminal charge. Yet, Weissmann is mocking the very notion that Clinesmith could be charged while insisting that his office was correct in prosecuting Flynn despite the absence of an ongoing federal case and the fact that the agents themselves did not believe Flynn intentionally lied. There is no question the Clinesmith lied and that the lie was critical to the court’s consideration of the FISA application.
Weissmann’s public effort to derail the Durham investigation and his distortion of the Clinesmith guilty plea only reinforces the view of many of us that the Durham investigation must be completed and made public. Despite saying that I did not believe that Mueller would find crimes of collusion or conspiracy with the Russians, I supported the Special Counsel investigation. I also supported the Horowitz investigation and the Durham investigation. The reason is the same. I believe that the public needs to have a full and transparent account of what happened in the Russian investigation on both sides. Like many, Weissmann would like transparency on only one side and to shutdown the Durham investigation despite Horowitz referring matters for criminal investigation and finding a host of false statements, errs, and professional misconduct. Even the addition of a criminal plea has not stopped Weissmann from denouncing this investigation.
For years, I have criticized Weissmann’s record of dubious prosecutorial judgment, bias, and overreach. However, that case against Weissmann is not nearly as powerful as the case he is making against himself.
- Billionaire Novogratz Warns "Frenzied Market Bubble" Will Pop If Biden Wins
Billionaire Novogratz Warns “Frenzied Market Bubble” Will Pop If Biden Wins
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 20:00Just days after bond king Jeffery Gundlach steamrolled over the widespread consensus that Biden will defeat Trump in the upcoming presidential election, doubling down on his contrarian bet that Trump will win a second term on November 3 (as he correctly predicted would happen in 2016 over the chorus of an army of so-called experts, all of whom were certain that Hillary would crush Trump), another billionaire made a non-consensus forecast on Friday when former hedge fund icon and cryptocurrency investor Michael Novogratz – a big fan of Democrats – said the relentless rally in the stock market could end if Joe Biden wins the U.S. presidency.
“Electing Biden and Harris, as much as it’s gonna be great for the country, is not going to be great for the market,” Novogratz said Friday in a Bloomberg TV interview.
According to Novogratz, founder of Galaxy Investment Partners and an outspoken cheerleader for cryptocurrencies, the stock market was in a “liquidity-driven frenzy,” fueled by stocks like Amazon and Tesla. Should Democrats take control in November, Wall Street can expect higher corporate and capital gain taxes, as well as increased rates for the wealthy, he said echoing an identical warning from Goldman (which despite still expecting higher taxes just hiked its S&P year-end forecast to 3,600 in what can only be seen as an attempt to encourage its clients to buy anything… that Goldman has to sell).
“Everything is trading literally like bitcoin in 2017 into a speculative frenzy. Those frenzied bubbles normally end with policy response,” said Novogratz, who has described his politics as center-left. “Usually it’s the Fed’s action, but action on raising taxes could end this froth. I mean Amazon’s an amazing company, it’s doing amazing through Covid, but it’s trading a hundred times earnings on a gigantic multiple.”
That said, Novogratz does not expect the Fed to in any way get in the way of the market, and expects the Fed to be “even more dovish” at its next meeting, which could drive stocks higher, push gold to $2,500 to $3,000 an ounce and send cryptocurrencies to all time high, especially now that it is becoming particularly clear that the Fed is working on its own “digital currency” which it will use to deposit funds directly into the accounts of Americans during the next crisis in a last-ditch effort to spark an inflationary inferno and “inflate away” the insurmountable US debtload.
Yet even though he sees a market crash, like many Wall Street Democrats Novogratz said Biden and Kamala Harris would be “good overall for financial firms” which is odd as it would require far higher interest rates, which in turn would lead to an even greater wipeout for tech stocks and any security with duration exposure. As Bloomberg notes, in an earlier interview, he described Harris, a U.S. senator from California, as someone who “brings star power to the ticket.”
Nobogratz also touched on several other topics including:
- Bitcoin – He said he thought the cryptocurrency, which has surged in value in recent weeks, had “crossed the Rubicon” on the question of whether it’s a good store of value, and said he considers it a better investment than gold at the moment. About 25% of his money is tied up in crytpocurrencies, he said.
- New York’s future – “New York taxes are certainly as high as they can go and we’re seeing that outflow of human capital. Services are gonna go down and so it’s gonna be a very tough run for city.” As for those who left because of coronavirus, he expects it could be six months to a year after the “all-clear sign” before many of them return.
Excerpts from the Novogratz interview below:
- As Stealing Fuel Becomes More Difficult, Mexican Thieves Turn To Train Robbery
As Stealing Fuel Becomes More Difficult, Mexican Thieves Turn To Train Robbery
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 19:29With the government having clamped down on fuel theft, criminals in Guanajuato and Querétaro are increasingly turning to freight trains. Last year an average of two railcars were robbed each week, but in the first six months of 2020 that number has increased to three per day, the newspaper Reforma reports.
Train robbers at work The shift in targets is likely due to the pressure inflicted on the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel, notorious for fuel theft in the area. Its leader, José Antonio Yépez Ortiz, alias El Marro, was arrested on August 2 on charges of kidnapping, organized crime and fuel theft after an 18-month manhunt.
Freight companies and cargo transportation experts have identified hot spots for train robberies in Mexico’s Bajío central lowlands region: El Ahorcado in Querétaro and Empalme Escobedo and Apaseo El Alto and Apaseo El Grande in Guanajuato.
The exact number of train robberies that have occurred is unknown, as many go unreported, said security expert Marcos Solórzano Cataño, and the problem is not likely to go away anytime soon. Fuel thieves have the infrastructure and the protection of local residents already in place, making the transition from gas to cargo relatively easy.
Solórzano said thieves mainly target train cars carrying auto parts, grains, seeds, consumer goods and construction material.
Nationally, the number of train robberies has been declining. In 2016, 9,042 train robberies were reported whereas the first three months of 2020 have seen just 1,306. The majority of train robberies occur in Puebla, Veracruz and Tlaxcala, government officials say.
- New York Has Rejected $1 Billion In Fraudulent Unemployment Claims Since The Beginning Of The Pandemic
New York Has Rejected $1 Billion In Fraudulent Unemployment Claims Since The Beginning Of The Pandemic
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 19:05Everybody knew that once the government trough was replete with newly-printed Fed money that it was only a matter of time until the pigs would line up.
Such appears to be in the case in New York. According to Bloomberg, The New York State Department of Labor has now rejected more than $1 billion in fraudulent unemployment insurance claims dating back to the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak.
The agency has paid out an estimated $40 billion in benefits, the report says. And we’d be willing to bet that more than a couple of those aren’t exactly legitimate, either.
More than 42,200 fraudulent claims for unemployment have been identified since mid-March, leading to New York to refer more “more unemployment fraud cases to federal prosecutors than it has in the last 10 years combined”.
State Labor Commissioner Roberta Reardon said: “Unfortunately, we have to fight unemployment fraud every day—not just during pandemics—but attempting to defraud the government during a global public health emergency when millions are filing legitimate claims for benefits is particularly shameful.”
More than 3.4 million claims have been filed in NY since the start of the pandemic and there were 52,642 claims filed just last week, Bloomberg notes.
You can color us not surprised. Such is the case when the government attempts to “help” its people by creating more newly printed fiat than it can possible watch over and regulate. In addition to increasing the stresses of inflation on the lower class, the government enables those with means to fraudulently obtain funds they don’t need, further skewing an already uneven playing field.
And people wonder why libertarians want less government and claim that politicians aren’t good capital allocators…
- Education Funds Would Follow Each Student Under Proposed Rand Paul Bill
Education Funds Would Follow Each Student Under Proposed Rand Paul Bill
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 18:48Submitted by Sovereign Man
Education funds would follow each student under proposed bill
What happened:
Currently, federal education funds are distributed to state governments, which then distribute those to local schools. But under legislation proposed by Senator Rand Paul, called the Support Children Having Open Opportunities for Learning (or SCHOOL) Act, those funds would actually follow each individual student.
It would be up to the parents if they would like to spend the money sending their child to public school, or if they would rather use the money for a private school, charter school, or even homeschool supplies. For instance, the money could go towards homeschool curriculum materials, technology necessary for learning, tutoring, and even certain extracurriculars.
“As the impact of the ongoing pandemic and the government response efforts continue to place parents in situations requiring greater flexibility in balancing working and providing for their families’ critical needs, especially when educating their children at home, my SCHOOL Act grants them that flexibility by empowering them to use their own tax dollars to find the option that best fits their family’s needs and allowing them to reclaim a bit of stability in uncertain times,” said Dr. Paul.
What this means:
More choice is always a good thing.
If the federal government is going to be in the business of spending money on education, this at least gives the recipient more control to direct their tax dollars where they see fit.
It’s a small step towards defunding something you disagree with, if you aren’t happy with local schools. Plus it will give more options to low income people, who could use these resources to divorce themselves from a failing and dangerous school system.
This sort of proposal would usually be dead on arrival. But in the times of Covid-19, with more parents than ever considering homeschooling, this might actually get the consideration it deserves.
* * *
South Dakotans forced to sue after Health Department guts food freedom law
What happened:
In 2017, South Dakota passed one of the best food freedom laws in the country. It allowed small-scale food produced in a home kitchen to be sold to the public. This was especially helpful to small farmers, and rural or lower income people looking for a side income. Not to mention that it introduced high-quality food products like pickles, pies, bread, canned goods, homemade meals, jams, and even fresh entrees into far flung, underserved markets across the state.
And literally no one became sick from consuming products from this cottage food industry.
But then at the start of 2020, South Dakota Health Department regulations went into effect, which essentially gutted the law, and heavily restricted what could be sold.
Cottage foodies sued, challenging the regulations’ legality. The Health Department responded by attempting to have the lawsuit dismissed, and force the food producers to appeal to the Health Department.
Luckily, the courts refused to dismiss the lawsuit.
What this means:
So it’s great that these people’s rights weren’t entirely trampled by the court. But they now have to waste valuable time and resources just to fight the state to be able to exercise basic freedoms. Freedoms which were codified into law, no less.
But a handful of unelected bureaucrats have the power to change laws.
Seriously, who are these psycho bureaucrats with the energy to harass homemakers who just want to earn a living or a side income? It’s really pathetic when you think about it. So many people are lurking out there, just waiting to step in and tell two adults that it is illegal to sell food to one another.
* * *
2 million people impersonated in comments on Net Neutrality rulemaking
What happened:
Remember when the repeal of net neutrality got everyone fired up, believing the end of a free and open internet was nigh?
When a government agency changes regulations, they allow the public to comment. And no Federal Communications Commission rulemaking got the public more riled up than the repeal of net neutrality.
But it turns out, of the 23 million people who commented on the regulation– for or against– 2 million of those people were not who they said they were. These comments came from stolen identities, some of them from dead people.
What this means:
This is an important lesson in the age of Twitter rule. Even in official government rulemaking, the mob isn’t necessarily real.
So as businesses and governments bow to the Twitter mobsters, it makes you wonder, who exactly is pulling the strings behind the scenes?
* * *
How about attempted murder charges for not wearing a mask?
What happened:
By now, plenty of cities and states have threatened possible jail time for not wearing masks in public. But a city councilwoman from Nashville, Tennessee wants to take it further.
Not wearing a mask, she suggested at a recent virtual council meeting, should perhaps carry attempted murder charges.
What this means:
As another councillor responded, the city does not have the power to pass criminal laws, thankfully. But just the fact that elected officials seriously suggest this is pretty scary.
Sadly, it’s not a far cry from the other draconian measures that have swept across the nation, in the same of safety.
- Here's Every Presidential Candidate's Running-Mate Since WWII
Here’s Every Presidential Candidate’s Running-Mate Since WWII
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 18:15Since the U.S. Constitution was first instituted, there have been 48 vice presidents. They’ve supported presidents in seeing the country through wars, economic expansions and contractions, a global pandemic – and much more.
A president’s success depends on the strength of their team, so it’s only natural that as second-in-command, the pick for a VP carries significant weight; and, as Visual Capitalist’s Iman Ghosh notes, in some cases, they can even make or break the race to secure a spot in the White House.
In this graphic, we take a look at the hand-picked running mates of presidential hopefuls since 1940, including the upcoming November 2020 elections.
Running More Than Once
The graphic highlights 33 running mates, out of which nine have ran for VP more than once. Here’s how their number of terms compare, and who continued on to become an eventual presidential candidate:
Of the running mates since WWII, Republicans Richard Nixon and George H. W. Bush are the only two to have served as president after being vice presidents for two previous terms—unless Joe Biden wins in November 2020.
Prior Gigs
What career paths did aspiring VPs take before running on the big ticket?
Interestingly, 2 of 3 running mates profiled in today’s graphic had a prior background as a lawyer before choosing to enter politics.
A curious exception to the typical career path is that of former professional football player Jack Kemp, who was chosen as the running mate for Bob Dole’s unsuccessful presidential bid in 1996.
At the President’s Right Hand
The vice president is the first in line of succession for the Oval Office, in the event that the sitting president dies, resigns, or is removed from office. Throughout history, nine VPs have ascended to presidency this way, of which three occurred since 1940.
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After Franklin D. Roosevelt’s death in 1945, Harry S. Truman ascended to the presidency.
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Lyndon B. Johnson became the President upon John F. Kennedy’s assassination in 1963.
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Following evidence of political corruption, Spiro Agnew resigned in 1973. He was replaced by Gerald Ford, who then became President after Nixon’s post-Watergate resignation in 1974.
Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton, and Donald Trump are three Presidents who have been through the impeachment process, but were later acquitted by the Senate. Otherwise, the list of VPs ending up as the commander-in-chief might look much more different.
The Youngest and Oldest Running Mates
Based on the first time they ran on the ticket, the average running mate is 54 years old. In contrast, the average presidential candidate is 58 years old.
Comparing the age difference between presidential candidates and their running mates paints a unique picture. The biggest age gaps both occurred in 2008:
There was a 28-year difference between older candidate John McCain (72) and younger VP pick Sarah Palin (44) on the Republican ticket. On the Democratic side, younger candidate Barack Obama (47) and older VP pick Joe Biden (66) saw a 19-year gap.
Harry S. Truman’s historic win in 1948 was considered a surprising political longshot. His running mate, Alben W. Barkley was the oldest running mate ever picked, 71 years at the time.
Meanwhile, Richard Nixon was one of the youngest running mates to be chosen, 39 years in 1956—second only to John C. Breckinridge (36 years old in 1856). Finally, at age 92 years in 2020, Walter Mondale is the oldest living former VP.
Cracking the Glass Ceiling
Last but not least, there have only been three women selected as VP running mates to date.
- Geraldine Ferraro became the first woman VP nominee for the Democratic Party in 1984.
- Although she had only two years of political experience as governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin was the first female Republican VP nominee in 2008.
- Kamala Harris, a former prosecutor with almost four years of experience as a Senator, is the first woman of color to be nominated on any major party’s ticket in 2020.
Palin herself shared a few words of wisdom for Harris across the aisle:
Congrats to the democrat VP pick Climb upon Geraldine Ferraro’s and my shoulders, and from the most amazing view in your life consider lessons we learned…
– Sarah Palin (via Instagram)
Could Harris become the first ever right-hand woman? We’ll find out in a few months.
-
- Conservative Journalist Arrested & Jailed Ahead Of 'ShadowGate' Documentary Release
Conservative Journalist Arrested & Jailed Ahead Of ‘ShadowGate’ Documentary Release
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 18:06Update: While weaver’s arrest appears to be for unrelated charges according to the Daily Dot…
When speaking to the Daily Dot via phone Saturday morning, a Portage County Jail administrator said that Weaver is being charged with alleged “robbery, tampering with evidence, obstruction justice, and domestic violence.”
When asked about the claim that Weaver was arrested for exposing the deep state, the administrator laughed. Conspiracy theorists believe a type of shadow government exists and is working to undermine President Donald Trump and his agenda.
Meaww also reports Weaver’s husband was arrested.
…we still can’t help but wonder about the curious timing?
As Peter Bary Chowka detailed earlier at AmericanThinker.com, Millie Weaver, widely known as Millennial Millie, a 29-year old conservative new media video and print journalist with a large following online, was arrested at her home in Ohio on Friday morning. Police officers apparently from a local SWAT team took Weaver to the Portage County Jail in Ravenna, Ohio where she is being held without bail until at least Monday for a “tentative status hearing.” A short video captured on her cell phone as she was being taken away was posted online.
Millie Weaver is one of my favorite independent journalists. She’s also a young mom. I was shocked to see this heavy-handed arrest. With her friends’ permission, I have set up a GoFundMe — please join me in chipping in. https://t.co/zsWPUMAUee pic.twitter.com/YFUOdvLtPf
— Ezra Levant 🍁 (@ezralevant) August 14, 2020
The news of Weaver’s arrest was immediately taken note of on social media as the Twitter hashtags #freemillie and #freemillieweaver quickly trended. Talk show host and licensed investigator Doug Hagmann, on whose program Weaver was a guest on July 3, obtained a copy of Weaver’s custody record, which is public information, with additional background from his sources which he cited in an article:
According to the information I obtained through my investigative inquiries (and partially detailed in the video of her arrest), she was indicted by a grand jury seated in Ohio. The indictment was sealed until served. The nature of her alleged offenses appears to be “process crimes” (e.g. Obstruction of Justice, Tampering with Evidence). [emphasis original]
In an article Friday at activist post, Spiro Skouras wrote that he also “contacted the Portage County Sheriff’s Office and they confirmed Millie Weaver is in their custody. They also confirmed that she was served a secret indictment. “]
The plot, if not the confusion, in this case thickens in light of the fact that Weaver was set to release an 82-minute independent documentary, Shadow Gate, which, as they say, is ripped from the headlines. The two-minute trailer, which Weaver tweeted a link to on August 11, teases the film’s relevance to current events:
The ObamaGate scandal only scratches the surface. . . Both parties are equally guilty in what should turn out to be an even bigger scandal. Shadow Gate the tactical and operational role the shadow government played behind the scenes carrying out the coup against President Trump.
On the page at her Website with the film’s trailer, Weave wrote:
The material presented in this documentary should concern people of all political affiliations given elected officials are not the shadow government. This is about real players [whose] names never come up but should. Corrupt carrier politicians are definitely part of the beltway swamp, even aspects of the deep state, but they are not the shadow government. Two whistleblowers, who worked extensively within the Shadow Government as contractors have come forward with revelations that may be the biggest whistleblowing event to date.
One of the whistleblower sources in the film, who uses the name Tore, uploaded a full copy of the documentary following Weaver’s arrest on Friday. In its first 14 hours online, the film had over 468,000 views. As of this writing, it is still on YouTube and is propagating virally elsewhere on the Internet.
After viewing the complete documentary one time on Friday evening, I can attest to its compelling – and complex – content. It is a professional piece of film making, with state of the art production values. The interlocking documents among Deep State players both known and obscure are riveting. Several viewings (a transcript would help) would be required to fully absorb and confirm the myriad details in the incredibly fast-moving presentation.
Weaver, originally from California, is married with two children, ages four and nine months. Some reports have said that her husband has also been taken into custody. Weaver started her journalistic career in 2012 at Infowars, where she quickly became one of the channel’s most popular reporters. Recently, she has gone out on her own as an independent journalist while continuing to contribute articles and video reports to Infowars. Weaver’s own YouTube channel has over 420,00 subscribers and her Twitter account has 180,00 followers.
- Is COVID Coming For Your Job?
Is COVID Coming For Your Job?
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 17:50Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,
How safe is your job?
Because despite the “Everything is Awesome!” mirage the financial markets are desperate to project, the real economy — you know, where people actually live their lives — is telling us a far darker story.
Tens of millions of US workers have lost their jobs since covid-19 arrived on America’s shores. Over 28 million people right now are currently filing to receive state & federal unemployment benefits:
And despite extraordinary measures to aid these impacted households, many are slipping into hardship as the prospects only grow dimmer.
The $2.2 trillion CARES Act created the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program which added an additional $600 per week to those receiving unemployment benefits. It also sent a tax credit check of up to $1,200 ($2,400 for joint filers) to households making under a certain income threshold.
But the extra $600 payments have now expired, and Congress is deadlocked on what will follow. The current proposal is to re-start the extra benefit payment at the reduced sum of $400/week, with $300 paid out of the federal government’s Disaster Relief Fund and the rest funded by the individual states. Another $1,200 payment seems likely, as well.
This plan has it challenges, though. At $300/week, the Disaster Relief Fund will be drained after 5 weeks. And many states are claiming they can’t afford to foot the $100/week bill they’re being asked to.
So it’s little wonder, with tens of millions of jobs lost and over 3,500 businesses declaring Chapter 11 bankruptcy so far this year, Americans are increasingly worried for the future:
POLL-Three of ten Americans laid off in coronavirus crisis worried about food, shelter (Reuters)
Three of 10 Americans who lost work during the coronavirus pandemic said they may have trouble paying for food or housing after a $600-per-week enhanced unemployment payment expired last month, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday(…)
(…) Three out of 10 people surveyed by Reuters/Ipsos reported that they will have “a very difficult time meeting basic needs,” which includes paying for rent or buying groceries. Half said they are under some stress “but we will be able to meet our basic needs.”
And it’s only going to get harder for these folks from here.
The unemployment rate is currently reported at 10.2%, which is high — but still under-emphasizes the reality of today’s job seeker.
Applying for a job in the post-covid world is a real challenge. Companies are busy trying to figure out how to manage the staff they have as they adapt to a remote workforce. And many are downsizing or closing shop completely.
Simply put: there are many less jobs. And a LOT more people competing for them now.
This imbalance will worsen as the extraordinary government benefits dry up, as they are highly likely to do after the November presidential election. Sure, politicians will try to curry votes by being as generous as they can leading up to it. But everyone knows there’s no way the country can sustain what it’s spending now, so expect the pursestrings to snap shut once the results are in.
And, if the markets should experience another major correction, as they are definitely due for — then Katie, bar the-door. If the flotilla of zombie US companies currently kept afloat by Federal Reserve stimulus are allowed to sink, then the unemployment rate will go bonkers as tens of millions more workers lose their jobs.
In Servitude To The Top 1%
Speaking of the markets, for years we’ve been loudly warning that the price bubble in financial assets blown by the Federal Reserve has resulted in tremendously unfair wealth disparity between the already-rich and everyone else:
This is resulting in a neo-feudal economy, where increasingly companies target and tailor their services to the elites who have all of the money. The rest of us are increasingly becoming cogs in that machine, worker drones toiling away to keep a few queen bees fat and happy.
Here’s a perfect example. This is an actual current job listing on CareerBuilder.com offering a staggering salary and benefits to serve as a ‘life coach’ to this Apen couple’s three children, who are all under the age of six:
So, this is basically a gussied-up nanny job for an insanely ambitious power couple with money to burn.
Given the precarious state of millions of US households right now, I expect thousands will apply for this single position. The compensation package is just too sweet, and there are just too many laid off workers in need.
And so we should expect to see much more of the economy head in this sad direction; more and more of the masses competing for the chance to be a servant to America’s aristocracy.
But hopefully, that doesn’t have to be you.
What To Do If Covid Threatens Your Job
If you’ve already been laid off due to the pandemic, or fear that you could be, are there important steps you should be taking now?
Absolutely.
We published The Layoff Survival Handbook not long before the coronavirus hit, and it is absolutely more relevant than ever in today’s environment.
The bankruptcy wave has just started. And if the stock market bubble pops, as history tells us is inevitable? Both promise more layoffs AND fewer jobs in the foreseeable future.
So take smart action now to increase your odds of maintaining an income.
In Part 2: The Layoff Survival Handbook, we detail out the steps to take now to reduce your vulnerability to a layoff, and the critical steps to take should you become laid off.
Many of these will enhance your career trajectory and satisfaction even if a pink slip never arrives. But should one do, you’ll be far better off for having taken them.
The stakes are simply too high now to leave your future to chance.
Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access).
- California Set To Pass The Nation's First Wealth Tax Targeting The Ultra Rich
California Set To Pass The Nation’s First Wealth Tax Targeting The Ultra Rich
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 17:25It was about about nine years ago when consulting company BCG first suggested that in a time of out of control spending and soaring debt loads, the only fiscally sustainable “solution” was to implement a wealth tax (see “There May Be Only Painful Ways Out Of The Crisis“).
While the idea was well ahead of its time in 2011, and was quickly shut down in the court of public opinion, several years later none other than the IMF resurrected the idea of a wealth tax, which has only gained momentum in recent months, and despite widespread grassroots pushback, the concept of a “wealth tax” has moved front and center and most recently the chairman of Capital Economics, Roger Bootle, said that the world’s wealthiest could be subjected to higher tax rates as governments scramble to fund spending and repair their economies amid the coronavirus crisis.
Fast forward to today when the ultra-liberal state of California is now ready to take this “socialist” idea from concept to the implementation phase, with the SF Chronicle reporting that a group of CA state lawmakers on Thursday proposed a first-in-the-nation state wealth tax that would hit about 30,400 California residents and raise an estimated $7.5 billion for the general fund.
The proposed tax rate would be 0.4% of net worth (most likely ended up far higher), excluding directly held real estate, that exceeds $30 million for single and joint filers and $15 million for married filing separately.
Oakland Democrat Rob Bonta, who is the lead author of the wealth tax proposal AB2008, justified the wealth expropriation by saying that California is facing a big budget deficit because of the health and economic crisis brought on by the coronavirus, and “we can’t simply rely on austerity measures,” to close it. It wasn’t immediately clear why austerity doesn’t work considering that California has never actually tried it, but in any case the Democrat’s proposal was clear: “We must consider revenue generation.”
California State assembly member Rob Bonta, D-Oakland, is the lead author of AB 2088, which would create a first-in-the-nation wealth tax And in doing that, California will trigger an exodus of billionaires who will be the first to realize which way the wind is blowing, and end up hurting the state far more than helping it as hundreds of ultra wealthy taxpayers leave for places like Florida or – for that matter – any other place in the world.
Bonta said that the union-sponsored bill will not be heard before the Legislature adjourns Aug. 31, but “it can be reintroduced on day one of the next session.”
Now what most normal Americans (i.e. those not living in California) may not know, is that this would be the second wealth tax set to pass in California. Bonta said he would like to see a wealth tax passed in addition to the “millionaires tax” proposed in a bill introduced in late July. AB1253 would add surcharges of 1% to incomes (joint or single) between roughly $1 million and $2 million, 3% on income between $2 million and $5 million, and 3.5% on income greater than $5 million, bringing the top rate to 16.8%.
California’s top rate today, at 13.3%, is already the highest in the nation, and it’s only going higher.
The millionaires (and soon to be hundred thousandaires, then ten-thousandaires and so on) subject to the wealth tax would report it to the Franchise Tax Board along with their income taxes. They would have to report all assets including stock in publicly and privately traded corporations; interests in partnerships, private equity or hedge funds; cash, bonds and savings accounts; mutual funds, futures and options; art and collectibles; offshore financial assets, pension funds, non-mortgage debt, real property and mortgage debt. Which of course is idiotic because some of that wealth is extremely illiquid and evaluating it will not only take material time and effort, but also result in drastic costs. Furthermore, just how will the government confirm that whatever wealth is reported represents reality. But such is life in a half-baked socialist utopia where every idea is for lack of a better word, idiotic.
There was some good news: “Directly held real property, and mortgages and other liabilities secured by directly held real property,” must be reported, but would not be considered in calculating the taxpayer’s worldwide net worth, the bill said. How wonderful… oh wait, someone realized that this would simply be double taxing the same assets: “Real estate would be exempt from the wealth tax because it’s already subject to property tax, at a higher rate”, Bonta said.
Among those handful of rational voices who call out this sheer idiocy for what it is was Jared Walczak, a vice president with the Tax Foundation, a think tank, who said that “it is far easier to call for a state-level wealth tax than it is to actually design an enforceable one.” Maybe that’s why no state has imposed one.
However now that California is on the verge of passing a wealth tax, every other insolvent state will follow suit, staring with New York.
“Some New York legislators are floating the idea, but Governor Cuomo has poured cold water on the notion, rightly concerned that it would lead to an exodus of high net worth individuals from the state,” Walczak said via email. Somehow California believes it is exempt from such an exodus. Spoiler alert: it isn’t, and the state’s wealthiest residents won’t think twice to up root and move their tax residence to a state which treats their wealth with respect.
There is of course the possibility that this idiotic idea will somehow die before it is enacted. Walczak said that implementing a wealth tax at the state level “would be extremely complex, with questions of how to value illiquid assets and whether residents’ out-of-state wealth — including their investment holdings — can be taxed.” He added that “any tax that is actually effective at taxing wealth, however, would be equally effective at driving wealth out of state.”
Emmanuel Saez, a UC Berkeley economics professor, i.e., a socialist, said income tax is not an effective way to tax the ultra-wealthy, because they can avoid the income tax as long as they don’t cash in their investments. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg could avoid the income tax as long as he doesn’t sell his Facebook stock, and if he moved to Florida before realizing his gains, he may never owe tax to California, Saez said during a call announcing the bill.
Saez, like any other socialist who has a terminal inability of grasping who the world really works and that every idiotic action by the state will have an appropriate reaction by the population, said the bill would not deter startups because it would let entrepreneurs defer the wealth tax for a period of time. Brilliant.
“Liquidity-constrained taxpayers with ownership interests in hard-to-value assets and business entities, such as startup businesses, shall be able to elect for an unliquidated and deferred tax liability to be attached to these assets instead of the net value of these assets being assessed at the end of a tax year.” The taxpayer would have to sign a contract with the state specifying when the tax would be paid.
Well, Emmanuel, instead of signing a “contract” with the state when the tax will be paid, all those entrepreneurs that keep the state afloat will simply… leave. And guess what happens to the already dismal tax collections then.
None of this matters to the Berkeley socialist, and instead he pointed to a paper he co-authored, saying that California has 12% of the U.S. population but 17% of all U.S. millionaires and 25% of its billionaires. In 2011, California had only 15.5% of the nation’s millionaires and 21% of billionaires. The wealth tax, he said, would hit about 0.15% of California tax filers.
We can’t wait for the paper’s second edition published in 2025 when the “professor” finds that California has none of the US’ billionaires.
Until then, the rare voices of reason such as that of Robert Gutierres, president of the California Taxpayers Association, will become increasingly rare:
“The state approved $9.2 billion in business tax increases in the new budget, but Sacramento politicians and special interests continue to seek income tax increases, property tax increases, a ‘headcount tax’ on in-state employees, and this new annual tax on money that was left over after all the other taxes were paid,” Gutierrez said, adding that “a very small number of Californians pay the vast majority of state income taxes. When the constant drumbeat for outrageous tax hikes drives them away, who will pick up the tab?”
Why, the Fed of course.
- Morgan Stanley: The Market Stakes Are Now Even Higher For Congress To Reach A Stimulus Deal
Morgan Stanley: The Market Stakes Are Now Even Higher For Congress To Reach A Stimulus Deal
Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/16/2020 – 17:00By Michael Zezas, chief political strategist at Morgan Stanley
The benign market reaction last week might lead you to believe that the failure to reach a deal on another round of fiscal stimulus in the US means more aid isn’t required to keep markets and the economy on their V-shaped recovery path. On the contrary, it remains crucial, and the stakes are now even higher.
Consider the following:
- The risks to stimulus action have risen, but so has its size if enacted: The lead-up and subsequent reaction to the stalled negotiation by Republicans and Democrats delivered two important insights. The first is that the size of a deal, if it comes together, is likely higher than we and many investors expected. That’s because there’s bipartisan agreement on another round of stimulus checks to households, which we estimate has a price tag of US$300-600 billion. Additionally, we’d assumed Democrats would settle for US$250 billion of state and local aid, a number in the zone of what Republicans have already offered per various media reports. That a deal hasn’t materialized suggests that Democrats are holding out for more. Taken together, the price tag for stimulus appears more in the US$1.5-2 trillion range, rather than our initial US$1 trillion estimate. The second is that risks to the deal have risen. The president’s executive orders attempting to extend supplemental unemployment benefits, temporary payroll tax relief, and eviction moratoriums have likely created an incentive for both parties to watch and wait for how public opinion is shaped by them. Hence, it would not be surprising if negotiations remained stalled into September, given the passage of many of the catalysts for action (expiry of unemployment benefits, moratoriums, etc.). As anyone who prices options knows, time equals uncertainty.
- The V-shaped recovery is under way, but a lack of stimulus could interrupt that progress: As our global economics team points out, there has been a solid V-shaped rebound so far and the US economy has already made up a lot of lost ground. However, prolonged delays in stimulus could weigh on household consumption and prompt state and local austerity, where we estimate that, without aid, states are facing US$180-375 billion of revenue shortfalls through FY21.
- The sharp rally in risk markets leaves less obvious upside: At current levels, we’re near price targets in key asset classes, like US equities and credit, which our colleagues set on the assumption of a V-shaped recovery. Accordingly, the easy gains of reopening the economy may be largely priced in, and the uncertainty about whether economic growth can continue apace without fiscal support may not be.
Hence, another round of stimulus is the difference between ensuring that the economic recovery continues uninterrupted and a meaningful short-term pullback in growth. It may also be the difference between a confident 6-12- month view on a variety of risk assets and a meaningful near-term correction.
From our perch, we expect Congress to hammer out a deal in time, and hence maintain confidence in the V-shaped recovery. This is largely because of the executive orders issued last weekend. We detail our arguments here, but in short, the mechanics of the orders raise significant questions about how quickly unemployment benefits can be delivered and in what size. They also raise questions about if payroll tax benefits can be delivered at all. Hence, we expect building political pressure to address these deficiencies to bring Congress back to the negotiating table.
What would make us change our view and flag a more cautious market outlook? Time and money. If talks remain stalled deep into September, and reports are that Republicans and Democrats remain far apart on top-line numbers for the deal, it may be too close to the election to get it done. The policy disagreements on stimulus may have hardened and politicians may be eager to get on the campaign trail and away from DC ahead of the November election.
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