Today’s News 17th January 2023

  • Escobar: All Quiet (Panic) On The Western Front
    Escobar: All Quiet (Panic) On The Western Front

    Authored by Pepe Escobar,

    Shadows are falling / And I’ve been here all day / It’s too hot to sleep / And time is running away / Feel like my soul / has turned into steel /I’ve still got the scars / That the sun didn’t heal / There’s not even room enough / To be anywhere / Lord it’s not dark yet, / but it’s getting there

    Bob Dylan, Not Dark Yet

    Lights! Action! Reset!

    The World Economic Forum (WEF)’s Davos Freak Show is back in business on Monday.

    The mainstream media of the collective West, in unison, will be spinning non-stop, for a week, all the “news” that are fit to print to extol new declinations of The Great Reset, re-baptized The Great Narrative, but actually framed as a benign offer by “stakeholder capitalism”. These are the main planks of the shady platform of a shady NGO registered in Cologny, a tony Geneva suburb.

    The list of Davos attendees was duly leaked. Proverbially, it’s an Anglo-American Exceptionalist fun fest, complete with intel honchos such as the US Director of National Intelligence, Avril “Madam Torture” Haines; the head of MI6 Richard Moore; and FBI director Christopher Wray.

    Remixed Diderot and D’Alembert Encyclopedias could be written about the Davos pathology – where a hefty list of multibillionaires, heads of state and corporate darlings (owned by BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street and co.) “engage” in selling Demented Dystopia packages to the unsuspecting masses.

    But let’s cut to the chase and focus on a few panels next week – which could easily be mistaken for Straight to Hell sessions.

    The Tuesday, January 17 list is particularly engaging. It features a “De-Globalization or Re-Globalization?” panel with speakers Ian Bremmer, Adam Tooze, Niall Ferguson, Péter Szijjártó and Ngaire Woods. Three Atlanticists/Exceptionalists stand out, especially the ultra-toxic Ferguson.

    After “In Defense of Europe”, featuring a bunch of nullities including Poland’s Andrjez Duda, attendees will be greeted with a Special Season in Hell (sorry, Rimbaud) featuring none other than EC dominatrix Ursula von der Leyen, known by a vast majority of Germans as Ursula von der Leichen (“Ursula of Cadavers”) in a tag team with WEF mastermind, Third Reich emulator Klaus “Nosferatu” Schwab.

    Rumors are that Lucifer, in his privileged underground abode, is green with envy.

    There’s also “Ukraine: What Next?” with another bunch of nullities, and “War in Europe: Year 2” featuring Moldova woke chick Maia Sandu and Finnish party girl Sanna Marin.

    In the War Criminal section, pride of place goes to “A Conversation with Henry Kissinger: Historical Perspectives on War”, where Dr. K. will sell all his trademark Divide and Rule permutations. Added sulphur will be provided by Thucydides strangler Graham Allison.

    In his Special Address, “Liver Sausage” Chancellor Olaf Scholz will be side by side with Nosferatu, hoping he won’t be – literally – grilled.

    Then, on Wednesday, January 18, comes the apotheosis: “Restoring Security and Peace” with speakers Fareed Zakaria – the US establishment’s pet brown man; NATO’s Jens “War is Peace” Stoltenberg; Andrzej Duda – again; and Canadian warmonger Chrystia Freeland – widely rumored to become the next NATO Secretary-General.

    And it gets juicier: the coke comedian posing as warlord may join via zoom from Kiev.

    The notion that this panel is entitled to emit judgments about “peace” deserves nothing less than its own Nobel Peace Prize.

    How to monetize the whole world

    Cynics of all persuasions may be excused for lamenting Mr. Zircon – currently on oceanic patrol encompassing the Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and of course “Mare Nostrum” Mediterranean – won’t be presenting his business card at Davos.

    Analyst Peter Koenig has developed a convincing thesis that the WEF, the WHO and NATO may be running some sort of sophisticated death cult. The Great Reset does mingle merrily with NATO’s agenda as agent provocateur, financer and weaponizer of the proxy Empire vs. Russia war in black hole Ukraine. NAKO – an acronym for North Atlantic Killing Organization – would be more appropriate in this case.

    As Koenig summarizes it, “NATO enters any territory where the ‘conventional’ media lie-machine, and social engineering are failing or not completing their people-ordaining goals fast enough.”

    In parallel, very few people are aware that on June 13, 2019 in New York, a secret deal was clinched between the UN, the WEF, an array of oligarch-weaponized NGOs – with the WHO in the front line – and last but not least, the world’s top corporations, which are all owned by an interlinked maze with Vanguard and BlackRock at the center.

    The practical result of the deal is the UN Agenda 2030.

    Virtually every government in the NATOstan area and the “Western Hemisphere” (US establishment definition) has been hijacked by Agenda 2030 – which translates, essentially, as hoarding, privatizing and financializing all the earth’s assets, under the pretext of “protecting” them.

    Translation: the marketization and monetization of the entire natural world (see, for instance, herehere and here.)

    Davos superstar shills such as insufferable bore Niall Ferguson are just well rewarded vassals: western intellectuals of the Harvard, Yale and Princeton mould that would never dare bite the hand that feeds them.

    Ferguson just wrote a column on Bloomberg titled “All is Not Quiet on the Eastern Front” – basically to peddle the risk of WWIII, on behalf of his masters, blaming of course “China as the arsenal of autocracy”.

    Among serial high-handed inanities, this one stands out. Ferguson writes, “There are two obvious problems with US strategy (…) The first is that if algorithmic weapons systems are the equivalent of tactical nuclear weapons, Putin may eventually be driven to using the latter, as he clearly lacks the former.”

    Cluelessness here is a euphemism. Ferguson clearly has no idea “algorithmic weapons” mean; if he’s referring to electronic warfare, the US may have been able to maintain superiority for a while in Ukraine, but that’s over.

    Well, that’s typical Ferguson – who wrote a whole Rothschild hagiography just like his column, drinking from the Rothschild archives that appeared to have been sanitized as he knows next to nothing meaningful about their history.

    Ferguson has “deduced” that Russia is weak and China is strong. Nonsense. Both are strong – and Russia is more advanced technologically than China in their advanced offensive and defensive missile development, and can beat the US in a nuclear war as Russian air space is sealed by layered defenses such as the S-400 all the way to the already tested S-500s and designed S-600s.

    As far as semiconductor chips, the advantage that Taiwan has in chip manufacture is in mass production of the most advanced chips; but China and Russia can fabricate the chips necessary for military use, though not engage in mass commercial production. The US has an important advantage here commercially with Taiwan, but that’s not a military advantage.

    Ferguson gives away his game when he carps about the need to “deter a nascent Axis-like combination of Russia, Iran and China from risking simultaneous conflict in three theaters: Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the Far East.”

    Here we have trademark Atlanticist demonization of the top three vectors of Eurasia integration mixed with a toxic cocktail of ignorance and arrogance: it’s NATO that is stoking “conflict” in Eastern Europe; and it’s the Empire that is being expelled from the “Far East” (oh, that’s so colonial) and soon from the Middle East (actually West Asia).

    An AMGOT tale

    Nobody with an IQ over room temperature will expect Davos next week to discuss any aspect of the NATO vs. Eurasia existential war seriously – not to mention propose diplomacy. So I’ll leave you with yet another typical tawdry story about how the Empire – who rules over Davos – deals in practice with its vassals.

    While in Sicily earlier this year I learned that an ultra high-value Pentagon asset had landed in Rome, in haste, as part of an unscheduled visit. A few days later the reason for the visit was printed in La Repubblica, one of the papers of the toxic Agnelli clan.

    That was a Mafia scam: a face-to-face “suggestion” for the Meloni government to imperatively provide Kiev, as soon as possible, with the costly anti-Samp-T missile system, developed by an European consortium, Eurosam, uniting MBDA Italy, MBDA France and Thales.

    Italy possesses only 5 batteries of this system, not exactly brilliant against ballistic missiles but efficient against cruise missiles.

    National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan had already called Palazzo Chigi to announce the “offer you can’t refuse”. Apparently that was not enough, thus the hasty envoy trip. Rome will have to toe the line. Or else. After all, never forget the terminology employed by US generals to designate Sicily, and Italy as a whole: AMGOT.

    American government occupied territory.

    Have fun with the Davos freak show.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 23:50

  • Visualizing The Most Valuable Brands From 2000–2022
    Visualizing The Most Valuable Brands From 2000–2022

    How much money is a brand truly worth?

    As Visual Capitalist’s Omri Wallach details below, for some companies, a brand is something that helps slightly boost customer engagement and sales. But for others, including some of the largest companies in the world, a strong brand is one of their most valuable assets.

    this animated graphic by James Eagle uses the annual brand rankings from Interbrand to track the world’s most valuable brands from 2000 to 2022.

    Measuring Brand Value

    One of the difficulties of brand valuation is its subjectivity.

    In accounting, the value of a brand is sometimes represented as an intangible asset called goodwill on the balance sheet. That’s because the brand power associated with a company (i.e. brand recognition, brand loyalty, customer base, reputation, etc.) often makes a company more valuable than just the sum of its tangible assets like land, buildings, or product inventory.

    This works for accounting purposes but is still a rough estimation, and doesn’t precisely quantify a brand’s true value.

    For Interbrand’s studies, a consistent formula for brand strength was utilized which is based on a company’s financial forecast, brand role, and brand strength. It uses estimates of the present value of earnings a brand is forecasted to generate in the future.

    The Top 10 Most Valuable Brands Since 2000

    When the 2000s started, the internet was top-of-mind in terms of both markets and customer perception. The Dotcom bubble was driving the world’s largest companies, and brand value at the time reflected tech’s popularity:

    Half of the top 10 most valuable brands at the time were in tech or telecom, including MicrosoftIBM, and Nokia.

    Others were classic American brands and companies at the top of their fields, including Coca-ColaGeneral ElectricFord, and McDonald’s.

    But over the next 20 years, much of the old guard was replaced by new and rising brands. By 2022, only three of the top 10 most valuable brands from 2000 remained at the top:

    Apple’s brand is now worth an estimated $482 billion, even though the company didn’t even crack the top 10 list back in the year 2000.

    In fact, four of the top five brands on the 2022 list are directly in tech, and even Amazon (#3) is often considered a tech giant. Not surprisingly, brand value in the top 10 has grown almost across the board, though Coca-Cola is a notable exception, dropping $15 billion in estimated brand value over 22 years.

    How will the most valuable brands continue to evolve over the coming decades?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 23:15

  • Why TikTok Must Be Banned In US And Free World
    Why TikTok Must Be Banned In US And Free World

    Authored by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,

    The United States recently banned TikTok from all federal government devices over growing security concerns. That is a good start.

    TikTok, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned at the beginning of December, is controlled by the Chinese government, which is a national security concern.

    TikTok, a video-sharing app owned by Chinese company ByteDance, has, according to TikTok’s own estimates, 1 billion users worldwide. In 2021, TikTok had approximately 87 million users in the US, according to Statista. Disturbingly, a recent study found that 10% of US adults get their news from the Chinese app, up from 3% in 2020.

    Wray said that China’s government can control the app’s recommendation algorithm, “which allows them to manipulate content, and if they want to, to use it for influence operations.”

    “All of these things are in the hands of a government that doesn’t share our values, and that has a mission that’s very much at odds with what’s in the best interests of the United States. That should concern us,” Wray said in a speech at the University of Michigan.

    Wray’s comments echoed those he made at the “Worldwide Threats to the Homeland” hearing held at the House of Representatives Homeland Security Committee on November 15.

    “We do have national security concerns at least from the FBI’s end about TikTok,” Wray stated.

    “They include the possibility that the Chinese government could use it to control data collection on millions of users. Or control the recommendation algorithm, which could be used for influence operations if they so chose. Or to control software on millions of devices, which gives it opportunity to potentially technically compromise personal devices.”

    Wray’s concerns are not new — actually, they come a bit late. In 2020, President Donald J. Trump, citing similar security concerns, tried to ban the app in the US, in addition to sanctioning the company, but several federal judges ruled against both sanctions and a ban, blocking his attempts. One judge ruled that the ban failed “to adequately consider an obvious and reasonable alternative before banning TikTok” and that the ban was “arbitrary and capricious.”

    “ByteDance’s submission and compliance with Chinese law has rendered it a reliable, useful, and far reaching ear and mouthpiece for the Party and State,” the Trump administration wrote at the time in a document motivating the proposed ban. The document cited ByteDance’s commitment to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as resulting in “systemic censorship of content across its platforms” and “the harvesting of user data.”

    In the document, the Trump administration stressed noted:

    “ByteDance, as a company, and its subsidiaries are subject to PRC national security laws that require or compel the assistance of any Chinese citizen or entity in surveillance and intelligence operations. As ByteDance is subject to PRC jurisdiction, PRC laws can compel cooperation from ByteDance…”

    Chinese law requires all Chinese companies to turn over information to the Communist Party upon request — and ByteDance reportedly employs more than 130 Party members to ensure compliance, among other matters.

    The Trump administration stated :

    “One of the foremost national security risks presented by the TikTok mobile application in the United States is the possibility that the PRC government could, through lawful authority, extralegal influence (Communist Party) influence, or PRCISS, compel TikTok to provide systemic access to U.S. user’s sensitive personal information. A number of press reports clearly indicate the PRC Government has already compelled TikTok to assist them for domestic surveillance, censorship, and propaganda action within China, and their compliance is indicative of how they are likely to respond to intelligence requests on U.S. users. Given the bounty of information TikTok could offer on foreign users, as well as the aforementioned cyber tactics employed by the PRC, the Department of Commerce assesses the PRC and PRCISS would not limit their use of TikTok to domestic concerns and would instead use it for foreign intelligence and surveillance.”

    Furthermore, similar to the concerns expressed by Wray, the Trump administration argued,

    “The PRC government and the CCP can exert influence on ByteDance and, through the TikTok app, censor and shape content available to U.S. users in ways that can influence their opinions and views of China.”

    In April 2021, U.S. Senator Josh Hawley wrote:

    “TikTok is a Trojan Horse for the Chinese Communist Party that has no place on government devices—or any American devices, for that matter…. TikTok has repeatedly proven itself to be a malicious actor.”

    According to Adonis Hoffman, a former chief of staff and senior legal advisor at the FCC who has served in legal and policy positions in the U.S. House of Representatives:

    “Its algorithm is at once simple and sinister. Download the app on your smartphone and you have given China access to all your data… This opens a treasure trove of data on millions of Americans for the Chinese government to use whenever and however they choose. And history shows they use that data for nefarious purposes.”

    President Joe Biden reversed Trump’s attempt at banning TikTok, signing an executive order in June 2021 that revoked Trump’s proposed ban. Instead, the Biden administration has sought to work out the security concerns with ByteDance through a negotiated deal with the Chinese company that would reportedly allow TikTok to continue operating in the US without any change of ownership.

    “Well, I think Donald Trump was right,” Senator Mark Warner, D-Va., chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, recently said.

    “I mean, TikTok is an enormous threat. So, if you’re a parent, and you’ve got a kid on TikTok, I would be very, very concerned. All of that data that your child is inputting and receiving is being stored somewhere in Beijing.”

    Brendan Carr, a Republican commissioner at the Federal Communications Commission, said in November that the only way to resolve the national security concerns regarding TikTok would be to ban the app.

    “I don’t believe there is a path forward for anything other than a ban,” Carr said. According to Axios:

    There simply isn’t “a world in which you could come up with sufficient protection on the data that you could have sufficient confidence that it’s not finding its way back into the hands of the [Chinese Communist Party],” Carr said.

    In October, Forbes revealed that a China-based team at ByteDance had planned to use TikTok to track the locations of an unspecified number of Americans.

    In December, it was revealed that ByteDance had used the app to surveil several journalists to track down the journalists’ sources.

    According to Texas Governor Greg Abbott:

    “TikTok harvests vast amounts of data from its users’ devices — including when, where and how they conduct internet activity — and offers this trove of potentially sensitive information to the Chinese government,”

    Also in December, Indiana became the first U.S. state to sue TikTok, for misleading users about the Chinese government’s capacity to access their data and showing mature content to minors.

    “The company’s ownership of TikTok is problematic for two reasons,” wrote Republican Senator Marco Rubio and Republican US Representative Mike Gallagher.

    “First, the app can track cellphone users’ locations and collect internet-browsing data — even when users are visiting unrelated website.

    “That TikTok, and by extension the CCP, has the ability to survey every keystroke teenagers enter on their phones is disturbing. With this app, Beijing could also collect sensitive national security information from U.S. government employees and develop profiles on millions of Americans to use for blackmail or espionage…

    Even more alarming than that possibility, however, are the potential abuses of TikTok’s algorithm

    Its algorithm is a black box, in that its designers can alter its operation at any time without informing users… in the hands of ByteDance, it could also be used to subtly indoctrinate American citizens.

    TikTok has already censored references to politically sensitive topics, including the treatment of workers in Xinjiang, China, and the 1989 protests in Tiananmen Square. It has temporarily blocked an American teenager who criticized the treatment of Uyghurs in China. In German videos about Chinese conduct toward Uyghurs, TikTok has modified subtitles for terms such as ‘reeducation camp’ and ‘labor camp,’ replacing words with asterisks.”

    In China, the content available on TikTok could not be more different. China serves up the “spinach version“: science, physics, engineering and patriotism. In the US, TikTok serves up the “opium version.” Tristan Harris, a former Google employee, said of China’s approach to TikTok on CBS’ 60 Minutes:

    “It’s almost like [the Chinese] recognize that technology is influencing kids’ development, and they make their domestic version a spinach version of TikTok, while they ship the opium version to the rest of the world.”

    “If you’re under 14 years old, they show you science experiments you can do at home, museum exhibits, patriotism videos and educational videos,” said Harris of the content served by TikTok within China, adding that Chinese children were limited to only 40 minutes a day on the app.

    “There’s a survey of pre-teens in the U.S. and China asking, ‘what is the most aspirational career that you want to have?’ and in the U.S., the No. 1 was a social media influencer, and in China, the No. 1 was astronaut. You allow those two societies to play out for a few generations and I can tell you what your world is going to look like.”

    TikTok urgently needs to be banned from the US and the rest of the free world.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 22:40

  • "A Historic Turning Point": China Reports Blowout Q4 Economic Data As Population Falls For First Time In Decades
    “A Historic Turning Point”: China Reports Blowout Q4 Economic Data As Population Falls For First Time In Decades

    If there was any doubt that China is back – or was back even when it was still largely mostly locked down with various now defunct Covid zero restrictions – all those doubts were magically whisked away moments ago when Beijing’s not-so-random number goalseekatron published the data dump for Q4 which – drumroll – not only beat across the board, but absolutely smashed expectations.

    Here is what China’s National BS (which stands for Bureau of Statistics of course), reported moments ago for a quarter when Covid Zero was still all the rage (before China mysteriously called time on the worst economic policy of the past three years):

    • Q4 GDP +2.9% y/y; down predictably from the Q3 +3.9% as zero Covid policies hammered growth for most of Q4 (China was mostly locked down during the quarter), but smashing the estimate of +1.6% and not far from the highest forecast (range -1.1% to +3.5% from 28 economists).
    • 2022 cumulative GDP +3% y/y; also beating expectations of +2.7%; curiously this was unchanged from the estimate of the first 9 months which was also at +3%
    • Dec. industrial production +1.3% y/y; beating expectations of  +0.1%, and down from Nov’s +2.2%
    • Dec. retail sales -1.8% y/y; smashing expectations of a -9% plunge, and a big improvement from Nov’s -5.9% plunge.
    • Jan.-Dec. fixed-asset investment excluding rural households +5.1% y/y; also beating expectations of +5%, and a modest slowdown from the Jan.-Nov. print of +5.3%
    • Dec jobless rate 5.5%, down from 5.7% in Nov.

    Solid data dump aside, there was continued weakness across property and housing, although as we already know this sector is poised for a huge surge now that China is phasing out its “three red lines” and its bad debt firms are planning up to $24 billion in support for developers.

    • Jan.-Dec. property investment -10% y/y vs -9.8% in Jan.- Nov.
    • Jan.-Dec. residential property sales -28.3% y/y vs -28.4% in Jan.-Nov.

    A snapshot of the data:

    On paper, all of the above looks great. On paper, however, it’s of course all fake as Australia’s Bill Birties points out:

    It is extraordinary that an economic quarter that saw restrictions across multiple cities for Covid followed by mass nationwide outbreak in December… would see not only as much economic activity as the same period a year earlier, but almost 3% more…

    But while the “surprise” beat in China’s GDP (and everything else) was tonight’s big headline, there was another big headline in the big (non-surprise) decline in China’s population. As the NBS reported, China’s total population fell by 850,000 in 2022, to about 1.41 billion at end-2022, a drop for the first time since 1961, the final year of the Great Famine under former leader Mao Zedong.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    According to the data, a total of 10.41 million people died, a slight increase from around 10 million recorded in recent years (good thing there were no pandemic at the time). At the same time, some 9.56 million babies were born in 2022, down from 10.62 million a year earlier, the lowest level since at least 1950, despite efforts by the government to encourage families to have more children.

    “This is a truly historic turning point, an onset of a long-term and irreversible population decline,” said Wang Feng, an expert on Chinese demographic change at the University of California, Irvine.

    While the decline officially began last year, with deaths outstripping births, the FT notes that some demographers argue that the trend likely started before then. Fuxian Yi, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, estimated that China’s population started to fall in 2018, but the drop was obscured by “faulty demographic data”.

    “China is facing a demographic crisis that far exceeds the imagination of Chinese authorities and the international community,” said Yi, noting that the trend will act as a long-term drag on the country’s property market, a crucial engine of growth.

    “Abundant labor has been the fuel that has driven China’s rapid growth for more than four decades,” said Yi, “and now China is flying at high speed without enough fuel.”

    Some economists argue that the rise of automation will offset rising labour costs as the number of workers shrinks.

    China’s demographic disaster aside, the stellar economic data – at least in the context of consensus expectations – was still quite poor: China’s economy grew at the second slowest pace since the 1970s in 2022 as Covid restrictions hammered activity, though better-than-forecast fourth quarter and December data add to optimism it may be primed for a recovery; it was also well below the governments target last year of around 5.5%, although that’s where 2023 comes in. According to Ho Woei Chen, an economist at United Overseas Bank in Singapore, China’s latest economic data suggest the momentum for recovery will be stronger in 1Q this year with the reopening of the borders and relaxation of the regulatory oversight in some sectors including property. And it’s all uphill from there.

    “We are maintaining our forecast for 2023 at 5.2%. Economic recovery is likely to accelerate in 2Q as the population achieves herd immunity, which will pave the way for further normalization in activities and a v-shaped recovery in private consumption”

    “On the key risks, we remain cautious on the external outlook and the sluggish real estate market could also take the tailwind out of this recovery.”

    Still, even 5.2% might not be enough. According to the head of the National Bureau of Statistics, Kang Yi, China has to more than double the current per capita GDP of about $12,700 in order to achieve its 2035 goal, although now that the population is declining, this target may be easier to achieve even if it means eventually surrendering the superpower status to India which as of this moment is officially the world’s most populous country.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 22:18

  • Did The Deep State Turn On Biden?
    Did The Deep State Turn On Biden?

    Authored by Christopher Roach via AmGreatness.com,

    Lately political analysis in the United States seems closer to Cold War-era Kremlinology. Small hints of what is really happening must be divined from the unintentional slips and innocuous gestures of officials. The reality of governance is concealed by a cloak of normality, procedural regularity, and legality. 

    This is to be expected within party politics, where things are resolved with deals among party insiders, i.e., the proverbial “smoke filled rooms.” This is why Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy Klobuchar rather suddenly dropped out to make way for Joe Biden in 2020, after it appeared the divided field could end up with Bernie Sanders as the nominee. 

    But this approach – secret groups secretly deciding how to control events – is not supposed to dominate ordinary governance. 

    The Deep State Revealed Itself Under Trump

    Donald Trump faced harassment from the Intelligence Community and other unelected parts of government throughout his term as president. Delaying the provision of funds Congress appropriated for Ukraine—something well within his authority as president—formed the basis of the first impeachment. A crew of insiders and bureaucrats waxed eloquent about their sacred “interagency consensus,” but the Congress and the American people were not buying it. Americans still think elections are supposed to matter. 

    In spite of his manifest unpopularity and refusal even to campaign, Biden was installed as president in 2020. Having rarely met an actual Biden supporter, Trump voters were skeptical and angry. The extended recounts, unceremonious dismissal of legal challenges, and videos of disappearing ballots, along with strident denunciations of “election deniers,” did not reassure anyone. Later revelations showed the coordinated way government officials, the media, NGOs, billionaires, and others conspired to “fortify” the 2020 election. 

    Biden governed as he ran: mostly hidden from the public, beholden to donors and party elders, doing as little as possible. This seemed acceptable for a while, since it allowed the various constituent parts of the government to do what they wanted with little interference. Everyone knows Biden’s never been that sharp and seems more decrepit than ever, that his vice president is even dumber than he is, and that he’s not really running anything. 

    But this is all a feature, not a bug, for the cabal that brought him to office. For them, the more independence they have from oversight, the better. 

    Biden Has Enemies

    Lately, it seems there’s a disturbance in the force. Biden and his allies have continued their vendetta against Trump, exposing his tax returns and raiding his home for possessing documents he supposedly owed the National Archives. This did not go over as well as Attorney General (and all-around hack) Merrick Garland anticipated, and it seems Garland and the January 6 Committee have each decided to scale back their demands. 

    This is why the recent exposure of top secret documents in Biden’s old office, his garage, and a mysterious third location suggests something is afoot. We went from a Monday disclosure to a special counsel being appointed on Thursday. Nothing like this happens this quickly unless it is by design. 

    There are, of course, ways to deal with this situation that do not involve public exposure. Couldn’t Biden or his staff order some FBI agents or White House people to pick them up and take them to wherever they’re supposed to be stored? 

    It’s in the news because somehow his lawyers found the documents and reported them before the story could go through White House channels. And, lawyers being lawyers, they followed the street-lawyer rule that if someone has to go to jail, make sure it’s your client and not you. Concerned about individual culpability for obstruction or mishandling documents, they made this hot potato someone else’s problem as fast as possible. 

    Someone is responsible for the way this information came out, and that someone is an enemy of Biden. There are plenty of possibilities: some secret Republicans at the Justice Department, Kamala Harris and her people, a committee of Democratic Party insiders concerned about Dementia Joe being president for another four years. The whole thing has a whiff of a conspiracy, and, like the various allegations and pretexts employed to investigate Trump, it may very well originate in the intelligence community. 

    As Senator Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) once said, “You take on the intelligence community, they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you.” In this instance, the hypothesis is not completely satisfying. Biden has not really taken on the intelligence community, so far as I can tell, unless they’re still smarting about how he ended the Afghanistan boondoggle. 

    Republicans Should Put Country Over Party

    Republicans seem gleeful over the news. This is unsurprising. It’s the millionth example of rank hypocrisy from Democrats. But, judging by past results, pointing out such hypocrisy does not seem to get us anywhere. It may put a damper on Merrick Garland’s pursuit of Trump for his alleged violations of the Presidential Records Act, but this already seemed to have lost steam on its own.

    Republican glee should be more restrained, as their excitement is akin to aristocrats in Revolutionary France cheering on Robespierre’s Terror when it turned on the revolutionaries themselves. Such a development makes things more dangerous for everyone, even if it sweeps up some of one’s enemies. 

    If the exposure of Biden’s apparent mishandling of classified documents arose from an intelligence community operation, it shows that the unelected deep state is beholden to neither Democrats nor Republicans. In other words, it will have revealed itself as a completely unaccountable branch of government, subject neither to Congress, the president, the judiciary, or any ideological faction. 

    This would be a profoundly un-American development, but it would not be a huge surprise. Instead of accepting the small fry of defeating an already unpopular, not-quite-elected president, Republicans should instead join forces with everyone of good will and focus on exposing and defanging the unelected portions of government, which mean to place themselves above every branch of government, as well as the American people themselves.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 21:30

  • MSM Outlets Demand To Know Who Guaranteed Bankman-Fried's $250 Million Bond
    MSM Outlets Demand To Know Who Guaranteed Bankman-Fried’s $250 Million Bond

    Eight MSM outlets have asked the US judge overseeing the case of Sam Bankman-Fried to make public the names of two people who helped front the FTX founder’s $250 million bond.

    Sam Bankman-Fried being escorted by PI Jimmy Harkins from court after he was released on $250 million bond.

    The outlets – AP, Bloomberg, CNBC, WSJ publisher Dow Jones, the Financial Times, Insider and WaPo – along with a separate request by the NY Times – argue that the public interest “cannot be overstated,” saying that the public’s right to know outweighs the guarantors’ rights to privacy.

    In a letter to U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan in Manhattan, the lawyers distinguished the case from another judge’s December 2020 decision not to reveal who guaranteed a bond for British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell, then accused and later convicted of aiding in financier Jeffrey Epstein’s sex crimes. –Reuters

    “While Mr. Bankman-Fried is accused of serious financial crimes, a public association with him does not carry nearly the same stigma as with the Jeffrey Epstein child sex trafficking scandal,” wrote lawyers for the outlets.

    Notably, the judge in the SBF case is the same one who presided over Ghislaine Maxwell’s case, while SBF’s lawyers, Mark Cohen and Christian Everdell, also represented Maxwell in her criminal case. SBF also hired James P. Harkins, a private investigator known as the “real hound dog,” who also worked for Ghislaine.

    SBF’s lawyers have argued that his parents – who co-signed the $250 million bond using their house as (very fractional) collateral, have been harassed and received physical threats since the early November collapse of FTX. One of the conditions of his bail would be house arrest at his parents’ home in Palo Alto, California.

    Source: Daily Mail

    According to the NY Post, the family had contracted a private security firm in the Bay Area to patrol the grounds for $10,000 per week to protect SBF from mounting death threats. 

    One source told the Post, “They’re [family] nervous … there have been numerous death threats. They’re not taking any chances.

    Bankman-Fried’s parents hired workers to construct a network of security cameras around the home on the edge of Stanford University’s campus. 

    SBF’s lawyers say there is a “serious cause for concern” over the two other guarantors if their names went public.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 20:55

  • China Reopening Boosts Copper Outlook
    China Reopening Boosts Copper Outlook

    By Ewa Manthery of ING Economics

    Copper jumped above $9,000/t for the first time since June at the beginning of 2023 on optimism about China’s economy, after Beijing abandoned its zero-Covid policy.

    We believe there is more upside for copper prices as demand in China picks up after the Lunar New Year holiday at the end of this month.

    Copper benefits from zero-Covid exit

    Copper has been rallying since late November amid a series of supportive policies in China and Beijing’s abrupt abandonment of Covid controls. The red metal has also received support from the weaker US dollar, which slid to a near seven-month low recently on growing expectations for a less hawkish Federal Reserve after cooler inflation and employment data.

    In our November outlook, we said China remained the big question mark for the copper market going forward. There have been important developments since then, with China making a full U-turn on its zero-Covid strategy.

    The virus was officially downgraded on 8 January when international arrivals were no longer required to quarantine.

    China’s lifting of Covid measures will, in time, help the economy to normalise, our China economist believes. But we can expect the short-term to be dominated by the very high level of Covid cases, which have come at a time when the economy is already very weak.

    Looking at other economies in the region which have suffered similar severe waves of Covid (India’s Delta wave) we would expect this wave to last no more than three months at which time the economy could start to revert to a more normal footing. Zeng Guang, the former chief scientist at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, has recently said that China’s Covid outbreak could continue for another two to three months.

    However, this could also coincide with the US and Europe entering recession, which will weigh on any manufacturing recovery and export growth even as China’s domestic issues abate.

    We believe, for copper, China’s Covid policy change should prove supportive for demand in the medium to long run, although rising Covid infections could weigh on demand in the immediate term.

    Copper is rising on China reopening, slower Fed rate hikes

    Property stimulus improves confidence

    Beijing has released a raft of policy measures in recent weeks which have increased confidence that the economy is stabilising, improving the outlook for industrial metals, including copper. For almost two decades, China’s property sector growth and the country’s rapid urbanisation have been the key driver of growth for copper demand. 

    China will return to “normal” growth soon as Beijing steps up support for households and businesses, Guo Shuqing, party secretary of the People’s Bank of China, told state media recently.

    The world’s biggest consumer of copper is expected to quickly rebound because of the country’s optimised Covid response and after its economic policies continue to take effect, Guo said.

    In its most recent move, China is planning to allow some property firms to add leverage by easing borrowing caps and pushing back the grace period for meeting debt targets. The move would relax the strict “three red lines” policy which had contributed to a historic property downturn, hitting demand for industrial metals. The easing would add to a raft of policy moves issued since November to bolster the ailing property sector, which accounts for around a quarter of the country’s economy.

    China’s economy ended 2022 in a major slump. Factory activity in the country contracted in December at the fastest pace in nearly three years. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slumped to 47 last month from 48 in November, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

    It was the biggest drop since February 2020 and also marked the third straight month of contraction for the index.

    The non-manufacturing PMI, which measures activity in the services sector, plunged to 41.6 last month from 46.7 in November. It also marked the lowest level in nearly three years.

    And although the government has stepped up its support for the property market, the effects are still slow to take effect – home sales fell again in December. The 100 biggest real estate developers saw new home sales drop 30.8% from a year earlier to 677.5 billion yuan ($98.2 billion) in December, according to data from China Real Estate Information Corp. That compared with a 25.5% decline in November.

    Housing prices fell 0.25% in December from the previous month, the 16th consecutive month of declines.

    We believe more stimulus and infrastructure spending could be unveiled at the National People’s Congress in March, which is likely to boost demand for commodities further.

    Global stocks at multi-year lows

    The demand boost for copper comes at a time when global stockpiles held by exchanges remain low. Last year, shrinking inventories were overshadowed by weakening global demand, but a revival in demand this year could set up the market for further squeezes and spikes in prices.

    Copper stocks in LME warehouses remain low, representing just two days’ worth of global usage. Inventories on the SHFE and COMEX are also extremely low. Between the three exchanges, global copper inventories are now down to just a few days of consumption.

    More price upside ahead

    We have increased our 2023 copper price forecast amid China’s reopening optimism, but we maintain a cautious view for the first quarter as Covid cases across China continue to rise. We now see copper prices averaging $8,700/t in the first quarter. We believe any further gains are likely to be capped as the Lunar New Year approaches.

    Following a surge in cases, economic activity will start to revert to a more normal footing with demand recovering by the second quarter.

    But we expect this to be temporary and China’s Covid policy change should prove supportive for copper demand in the medium and long term.

    We believe that once China gets over the current wave of Covid-19 infections and the country learns to live with Covid, a recovery in Chinese demand will boost copper prices further.

    We expect prices to continue to recover from the second quarter onwards on the back of improving reopening sentiment and tight inventories with prices hovering around $9,100/t in the fourth quarter.

    However, global macroeconomic headwinds are likely to persist in 2023 and the risk of global recession will remain a threat to the demand recovery in China, capping further gains.

    Any further spikes in copper prices will also depend on the US Federal Reserve’s stance towards its monetary policy. Less aggressive tightening would limit any upside in the US dollar and could further boost copper prices.

    Longer-term, we still believe copper demand will improve amid the accelerated move into renewables and electric vehicles (EVs). In EVs, copper is a key component used in the electric motor, batteries, and wiring, as well as in charging stations. Copper cannot be substituted in EVs or wind and solar energy, and its appeal to investors as a key green metal will support higher prices over the next few years.

    ING forecasts

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 20:20

  • Beijing Gives Didi Green Light To Sign Up New Users, Signaling End Of Regulatory Crackdown
    Beijing Gives Didi Green Light To Sign Up New Users, Signaling End Of Regulatory Crackdown

    ADRs of Didi will be on watch heading into the shortened trading week as the company has reportedly “secured the green light to resume signing up new users”, according to new reports from Bloomberg and Yahoo

    The resumption of business as somewhat normal came as Didi was made the poster child for a Beijing-led crackdown on China’s internet industry. The decision to allow Didi to continue operating is being hailed as a “clear sign” that Beijing is prioritizing re-starting the country’s economy after locking down for Covid. 

    Didi’s app had been removed from app stores in 2021, but services could “soon return to Apple and Android stores” as a result of the resumption. Didi has long been compared to Uber in China, but most recently became famous alongside of the halted Ant Group Co.’s IPO as a symbol of China’s crackdown on its internet industry. 

    The crackdown on Didi came after the company “pushed ahead with a $4 billion-plus US initial public offering against Beijing’s wishes”. It is being speculated that now, with the resumption of signing up users, the company may eventually list in Hong Kong.

    Combined with recent concessions made regarding Ant Group, it sends a signal that the government may be easing up on the industry as a whole. Guo Shuqing, party secretary of the People’s Bank of China, has alluded to the regulatory clampdown drawing to a close, Bloomberg wrote. 

    Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Catherine Lim said in a report this weekend: “The relaunch of Didi apps supports earlier indications from Beijing that required reforms within local technology sector are near-completion. Disruptions to the operations of tech giants such as Alibaba, Tencent should be minimal in 2023.”

    It may also see Didi stock – which had traded on the over the counter markets – once again attempt an uplisting in the United States. 

    “In the future, the company will take effective measures to guarantee the security of our platform infrastructure and big data, and maintain national cybersecurity,” Didi said in a company-issued statement this weekend.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 19:45

  • Will You Beat Uncle Sam's Relentless Pursuit Of Your Wealth?
    Will You Beat Uncle Sam’s Relentless Pursuit Of Your Wealth?

    Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

    The United States is lurching towards an epic financial catastrophe.  This isn’t a novel insight.  The great tragedy has been in the works for decades.  Anyone with a mild inkling of curiosity knows what’s going on.

    According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s population clock, the U.S. population is over 334 million.  This, no doubt, is a lot of mouths to feed and people to clothe and shelter.  But that’s not all.

    Many of these people also need some sort of medical care throughout the year.  Some may break their arm.  Others may have their appendix burst or suffer cardiac arrest.  There are also serious medical emergencies from car accidents or other hazards.

    In an economy characterized by limited government and individual liberty people are self-supporting.  They provide the means to pay for these needs through the fruits of their own labors.  Minors are supported by their families until they can provide for themselves.  The elderly may fall back on their kids if they didn’t squirrel away enough nuts during their working years.

    In an economy characterized by central planning this is not the case.  Large segments of the population are dependent on government programs for their daily bread.  They also look to the benevolent hand of government to pay for their drugs and other medical needs.

    The U.S., over the last 100 years, has transformed from a nation of self-supporting individuals to a nation of collective dependents.  In fact, the U.S., at this very moment, is closing in on a significant milestone.

    Several days before the Ides of March, 100 million people – or approximately 30 percent of the total population – will be on Medicaid.  Can you believe it?

    Forced Philanthropy

    An outfit out of Naples, Florida, called the Foundation for Government Accountability (FGA), even has a special website with a countdown clock so you can monitor precisely when this magical moment arrives.  The FGA is forecasting that Medicaid enrollment will hit the 100 million mark sometime between the late evening of March 12 and early morning of March 13.

    Will you pop a bottle of bubbly and toast this momentous accomplishment?

    The actual significance of 100 million is found primarily in the number itself.  It’s big.  And round.  It offers a unique opportunity to pause and contemplate the madness of what’s been erected.

    How is it that 100 million Americans ended up on Medicaid?  Could it be that the entire Country will one day be ensnared by this program’s wide casted nets?  What happens to the quality of medical care when payments for services rendered are diverted through an ultra-mega government program?

    Politicians, by and large, are enamored by transfer payment programs.  The more idealistic of the lot may believe that through their programs of forced philanthropy they’re making the world a better place.  Others just get a thrill out of employing central planning to control the masses.

    “The way to Hell is paved with good intentions,” remarked Karl Marx in Das Kapital.  The devious fellow was bemoaning evil capitalists for having the audacity to use their own money for the purpose of making more money.

    Marx, a wordy busybody, was consistently wrong.  The road to hell is paved with plenty more than good intentions.  Grift, graft, larceny, corruption, and fake money all compose the pavement.  Good intentions are simply sprinkled on top to improve the aesthetic.

    Government Scam

    Perhaps Medicaid, when it was first created under the Social Security Amendments of 1965, was established with good intentions.  Who, but a complete Scrooge, could possibly be against providing medical aid to low-income residents?

    But what you may not know is that Medicaid, in its current form, is an absolute government scam.  Strings from the coronavirus fiasco have been attached to the program, which places state governments at the mercy of the federal government.  The FGA offers the following details:

    “The sharp rise in enrollment is largely due to the federal government’s continued extension of the COVID-19 public health emergency which locks states in ‘Medicaid Handcuffs.’  While the emergency is in effect, states receive extra Medicaid funding on the condition that everyone enrolled remains locked into the program.  This has led to an additional 24 million enrollees, more than 21 million of whom would previously not have qualified because they earn too much money or are otherwise ineligible.” 

    The price tag for these 21 million otherwise ineligible Medicaid enrollees comes to $16 billion per month – or $192 billion per year.  The taxpayer – that’s you – foots the bill.

    As perspective, to better understand how many ineligible people 21 million represents let’s look to Florida.  The population of Florida, the third largest state in the Country, is 22 million.  So, the equivalent of nearly the entire population of Florida, is illegitimately on Medicaid.

    Think about that on Monday morning when you rise at the crack of dawn to start up your daily grind once again.  Think about that the next time you peruse your paycheck and see the massive federal income tax deduction being confiscated.

    How many other government scams are you working to pay for?

    The actual costs of the scam portion of Medicaid are much, much more than $16 billion per month.  As the FGA notes, as welfare enrollment – including Medicaid enrollment – increases, workforce participation decreases.  So, the ability of the U.S. economy to pay for Medicaid and other government scams is diminished.

    Yet the madness continues.  Washington policies are handcuffing people to dependency who are entirely ineligible for the programs they’re dependent on.  What’s more, they’re doing this at the worst possible time.

    Will You Beat Uncle Sam’s Relentless Pursuit of Your Wealth?

    Presently, the U.S. national debt is over $31.4 trillion.  Factor in unfunded liabilities – such as social security, Medicare parts A, B, and D, federal debt held by the public, and federal employee and veteran benefits – and the number jumps to $173.5 trillion.  That comes to over $519,000 per citizen.

    These debts won’t magically disappear.  However, they won’t be directly paid either.  Simple arithmetic doesn’t allow it.  But they will be paid, nonetheless.

    You’ll pay with your time and your talents.  You’ll pay with a declining standard of living.  In fact, you already are.

    This week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest inflation data.  According to the government’s aggregate data manufacturers, consumer prices, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), increased at an annual rate in December of 6.5 percent.  After peaking in June 2022 at 9.1 percent, the rate of inflation has steadily slowed.

    Should you be happy that you’re only being robbed of 6.5 percent of your savings per year instead of 9.1 percent?

    Remember, at an ‘official’ inflation rate of 6.5 percent it only takes 11 years for the purchasing power of your savings to be cut in half.  And 11 years is only about one-fourth of a person’s working years.  In other words, over the duration of a person’s working life their earnings will be cut in half at least four times.

    Wage and salary increases may soften the blow.  But they won’t keep pace with government sponsored inflation.  In truth, real wages have declined for 21-months in a row.

    And what about after retirement when employment income disappears?  In this regard, a retiree should expect the purchasing power of their savings to be cut in half at least once – possibly twice.

    This, in essence, is how you’ll pay for Washington’s massive debts and unfunded liabilities.  The Medicaid scam is but one example of the servitude you’re indentured to.

    By this, saving and investing your income and wealth has never been more important.  With hard work, diligence, unending perseverance, and some luck, you can maintain your independence and standard of living in the face of Uncle Sam’s relentless pursuit of your wealth.

    The challenge is great.  The stakes are grave.

    *  *  *

    This is a very challenging time for investors.  Inflation.  Deflation.  Recession.  The dangers are prominent.  However, it’s also the genesis of the next great wave of wealth over the next decade.  And we intend to ride it all the way.  If this interests you, take a gander at my Financial First Aid Kit.  Inside, you’ll find everything you need to know to prosper and protect your privacy as the global economy slips into a worldwide depression.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 19:10

  • Ron Paul: Isn't It Time For Adam Schiff To Be Expelled From Congress?
    Ron Paul: Isn’t It Time For Adam Schiff To Be Expelled From Congress?

    Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

    With each new release of the “Twitter Files” we learn more and more about the deep corruption in Washington. We sensed during Covid that something was really wrong – for example the bizarre denial of natural immunity. But thanks to Elon Musk’s decision to open the books, our worst fears have been proven true. Each new release seems to show something even more criminal inside America’s rotten ruling class.

    In the latest release, thanks to the excellent reporting of independent journalist Matt Taibbi, we see outgoing Chair of the House Intelligence Community, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), continuously pressuring Twitter to validate his fantasies of “Russian bots” manipulating US politics.

    The short version of what Taibbi reported comes from around the time then-Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) was about to release his Committee’s findings about the FBI misuse of the FISA Court to spy on the Trump presidential campaign. The FBI, it turns out, relied exclusively on the widely-discredited “Steele Dossier” – paid by the Hillary Clinton campaign – as justification to spy on the Trump campaign.

    When pressure grew to release the Nunes findings, Twitter exploded with users demanding that Congress “release the memo.”

    That’s where then-ranking Member Schiff and his staff began relentlessly pressuring Twitter to show that the accounts demanding the release of the memo were actually Russian agents, out to help their supposed favorite, Donald Trump. Schiff was not alone. Fellow “Russiagate” hoaxers like Sen. Feinstein (D-CA) and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) also pressured Twitter to find Russians behind the demand to release Nunes’ findings.

    Over and over, Twitter – which was hardly sympathetic to Trump – told Schiff and his colleagues there was simply no evidence of Russian involvement. As much as some Twitter employees may have liked to report the opposite, to their credit they refused to participate in the scam.

    Even after Twitter had informed Schiff and his fellow hoaxers that there was no Russian involvement, Sen. Blumenthal released a statement he knew was not true:

    “We find it reprehensible that Russian agents have so eagerly manipulated innocent Americans.”

    Again, this was right after he had been informed by Twitter employees – who were by-and-large strongly opposed to Trump – that there was just no evidence to back up such a statement.

    We are moving closer and closer to a nuclear showdown with Russia over Ukraine. For political gain the Democrats – and plenty of Republicans – have been pushing the “Russiagate” hoax and in so doing have fertilized the ground for the obsessive Russia hatred prevalent in the US today.

    I do not believe it is an exaggeration to say that if US/Russia relations had not been poisoned by the lie of “Russiagate” for pure political gain, we would not be anywhere near our current state of near-direct conflict with the largest nuclear power on earth, Russia.

    It is shocking that Schiff and his “Russiagate” allies would potentially sacrifice millions of dead Americans to defeat Trump and other political enemies.

    Let’s not forget: Rep. Jim Trafficant was expelled from Congress for asking his staffers to wash his boat.

    Shouldn’t there be at least equal punishment for Senators and Members who are lying us into World War III?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 18:35

  • Economists Warn Americans Recession Is Coming: "Don't Be Fooled"
    Economists Warn Americans Recession Is Coming: “Don’t Be Fooled”

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

    Two top economists said that despite contrary predictions, a recession will likely hit the United States in the near future.

    “Some economists argue that the strength of the labor market – as well as household balance sheets – will keep the economy strong enough to avoid a recession,” wrote Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the co-founders of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, in a Friday opinion article.

    “We disagree,” they wrote, saying that “it remains our expectation that the U.S. economy will enter a recession this year.”

    That’s because, in part, because of the Federal Reserve’s recent decisions to raise interest rates to their highest levels in decades in a bid to slow inflation levels not seen since the early 1980s, they wrote. The rate hike appears to have worked to an extent as the Labor Department last week confirmed that the consumer price index that measures inflation fell 0.1 percent in December to 6.5 percent.

    Last month, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rates by half a percentage point, while the last four hikes were all three-quarters of a percentage point.

    “Recessions always entail noticeable declines in both GDP and jobs, but such pullbacks are not necessarily obvious at the recession’s outset,” the two wrote for CNN, telling Americans “don’t be fooled” by rosy forecasts saying otherwise.

    “While GDP and jobs do move in step with the economy, by the time they are released, they only tell us where the economy had been in the recent past.”

    There have been similarities made to the current U.S. economy and the 2008 Great Recession, they wrote.

    Cartons of eggs are seen for sale in a Sprouts Farmers Market in Houston, Texas, on Aug. 15, 2022. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

    “Then, many—including then-President George W. Bush—were not concerned about a recession because GDP hadn’t declined yet, even though job losses had begun,” their article said.

    “We pushed back against the prevailing complacency, writing for CNN at the time, ‘While GDP has yet to decline, we have already seen four straight months of payroll job losses. That suggests that the economy is on a recession track. And it implies that either one or both of the recent, slightly positive GDP estimates will be revised down to negative readings by next year.’”

    A recession would include job losses. There have already been layoffs carried out this winter in the tech sector, led by Amazon, Meta and Facebook, Twitter, and others.

    “That is why—having predicted that the economy would enter a recession—last spring we urged job seekers ‘to update the resume and make any career moves while the job market is still hot,” Banerji and Achuthan wrote.

    And while a dropping GDP, or gross domestic product, and higher unemployment rates are telltale signs that a recession is underway, the two economists said that those two factors “do move in step with the economy, by the time they are released, they only tell us where the economy had been in the recent past.”

    “Employment, in particular, can hold up longer than expected in a recessionary scenario,” they added.

    “That was true in the inflationary era around the 1970s. Most notably, unemployment didn’t peak until eight months after the start of the severe 1973-1975 recession.”

    The Biden administration hasn’t released its December jobs report. In November, the country added 263,000 jobs, and unemployment held at 3.7 percent.

    More Forecasts

    Another economist, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, said in a recent interview that the U.S. economy still faces a recession sometime in 2023. That’s despite the encouraging reports in recent weeks about lower inflation and steady jobs numbers.

    “One has to be careful of false dawns,” Summers told Bloomberg last week. “I would stick with my view that a recession this year is more likely than not.”

    And about 61 percent of Wall Street Journal-surveyed economists predicted there would be a downturn within the next 12 months.

    “While recent inflation prints have shown some progress, a few persistent categories like core services are associated with the historically tight labor market, suggesting that there is still ‘a long way to go’ for the Fed,” Deutsche Bank economists Brett Ryan and Matthew Luzzetti said in the WSJ survey, released Sunday. “The Fed would stay on its tightening trajectory to restore the rebalance of labor market and price stability, which in our view would engineer a sharp rise in unemployment and recession,” they added.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 18:00

  • World Economic Forum Invents New Word To Describe The Extreme Chaos Gripping Our Planet
    World Economic Forum Invents New Word To Describe The Extreme Chaos Gripping Our Planet

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    This week, 2,658 of the “world’s decision-makers” will gather in Davos, Switzerland for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. 

    Protected by thousands of police officers and soldiers, the elite of the world will feast and party throughout the week as they shape the global agenda for the coming year.  Needless to say, our input is not desired or welcomed.  In order to get into this conference, you have got to be a part of their club, and in order to be a part of their club you must be a very important person.  It is being reported that the official list of 2,658 attendees this year includes “heads of state, business royalty, actual royalty, media honchos, and academics”…

    The world’s decision-makers are gathering in Switzerland this week for the World Economic Forum meeting. The annual event of business and government leaders is expecting a solid turnout as it returns to its traditional winter time slot following two years of covid disruptions.

    According to the official list, which is accurate as of Jan. 10, 2,658 attendees are registered for the event. Among them are heads of state, business royalty, actual royalty, media honchos, and academics. There are hundreds more participating on the sidelines, whether organizing, catering, or attending corporate events along the promenade that cuts through the center of Davos.

    I suppose that someone could try to show up at the conference unannounced, but it is not likely that anyone that is not authorized will get very close.

    All of the roads leading to the conference have checkpoints, and apparently fingerprint scanners are being used in some cases to verify identities.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    I can’t recall ever seeing anything quite like this.

    In addition to hordes of regular police, the Swiss military will be providing “up to 5,000 soldiers” to bolster security…

    With one week to go until the who’s who of the most radical globalists descend upon the picturesque ski resort town of Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting, up to 5,000 soldiers from the Swiss army will be deployed to offer military support to the civil authorities of the canton of Graubünden, who are responsible for securing the summit’s premises and its participants.

    In a statement released Friday, January 6th, the Swiss Defense Department (VBS) said that the Federal Assembly, the country’s parliament, had approved the deployment of the Swiss army contingent to ensure the security of thousands of participants, the Swiss German-language newspaper Blick reports. This year’s deployment is part of a three-year commitment, from 2022 to 2024, by Parliament to support these high profile civic activities.

    Somehow, Klaus Schwab and his minions have turned this annual gathering in Davos into a “must attend” event for the global elite.

    And if there is anything that the global elite do not like, it is mixing with the general population.

    As Paul Joseph Watson has aptly observed, it is a big club and you and I are not part of it.

    Leading up to the conference, the WEF issued a “global risks report”, and in that report they actually created a brand new term to describe the extreme chaos that is gripping our world right now…

    The collective vocabularies stored in the world’s great dictionaries didn’t appear to hold a single world to sum up all this strife. So here’s a new one: Polycrisis.

    The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2023 uses the term, to explain how, “present and future risks can also interact with each other to form a ‘polycrisis’ – a cluster of related global risks with compounding effects, such that the overall impact exceeds the sum of each part”.

    Normally, I disagree with everything that the World Economic Forum does, but I actually kind of like this new term that they have come up with.

    We are definitely facing “a cluster of related global risks with compounding effects, such that the overall impact exceeds the sum of each part”, and 2023 will almost certainly be another year when we are hit by one crisis after another.

    I have often referred to what we are facing as “a perfect storm”, but I think that “polycrisis” is a pretty good descriptor as well.

    Unfortunately, virtually every “solution” that will be on the agenda at Davos will be bad for humanity.

    The globalists don’t seem to realize that the system that they have worked so hard to carefully construct is rapidly failing, and many in the general population are sick and tired of the self-destructive policies that they have been trying to push on all the rest of us.

    Interestingly, as the global elite gather in Davos an extremely rare “green comet” will be making a run toward Earth

    A rare green comet, last seen in Earth’s skies 50,000 years ago, is revisiting our solar system and may become visible to the naked eye within the next few weeks.

    The comet – formally identified as C/2022 E3 (ZTF) but commonly called the “green comet” – won’t be as bright as other famous comets such as Halley’s or Hale-Bopp.

    “The brightness of comets is notoriously unpredictable, but by (Feb. 1) C/2022 E3 (ZTF) could become only just visible to the eye in dark night skies,” NASA said in its blog.

    This comet will be the closest to our planet on February 1st and 2nd, and that will be the best opportunity to potentially see it with the naked eye.

    Before I end this article, I wanted to acknowledge the passing of Lisa Marie Presley.

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    It is such a tragedy to lose her at such a young age.

    If Elvis was alive today, how do you think he would have responded to the sudden death of his little girl?

    2023 is just a little over two weeks old, and already there has been so much sadness.

    Unfortunately, I believe that much more sadness is coming, because the “polycrisis” that we are facing will only intensify even more as global events continue to accelerate.

    *  *  *

    It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 16:50

  • US NatGas Prices Rise As Models Suggest 'Polar Vortex To Unload On US'
    US NatGas Prices Rise As Models Suggest ‘Polar Vortex To Unload On US’

    Natural gas futures bounced off 18-month lows during the holiday session period as the latest runs of long-term weather models suggest winter might not be over for the Lower 48. 

    US NatGas futures for February delivery moved up 21 cents to $3.63 per million British thermal units. The price is now trading above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the main drop from the high of $10 in August 2022 and the low of $1.43 in June 2020. 

    The price of NatGas tumbled to an 18-month low last week as mild weather boosted injections into storage facilities by slashing demand. Last week, the Energy Information Administration announced a rare rise in inventories of 11 billion cubic feet in stocks.

    However, as we’ve pointed out in recent weeks and even days, first in “US NatGas Prices Slide To 18-Month Low On Warm Spell; Some Models Forecast Cold Blast In Weeks” and “California Pounding Continues, But Upcoming Large-Scale Weather Pattern Change On The Way,” as well as “Siberia Records Minus-80 Degrees As Talk Of Polar Vortex Grows,” long term weather models are showing the increasing possibility for colder weather. 

    The latest run of the Global Forecast System (GFS) shows the possibility of the return of winter by the end of the month. 

    Both GFS and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models for the Lower 48 show the possibility of a cold spell — when both long-term models suggest colder weather, the likelihood increases. 

    More mainstream meteorologists, such as Ryan Maue, are now pointing out that a wicked cold spell might be headed for the Lower 48. 

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    “Winter coming back,” tweeted Weather forecaster Joe Bastardi. 

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    NatGasWeather said cold returns around Jan. 26-30 and might last through the first week of Feb. 

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    Winter isn’t over yet. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 16:15

  • Chevron Sold Venezuelan Oil To Phillips 66
    Chevron Sold Venezuelan Oil To Phillips 66

    By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice

    Chevron Corp has sold a cargo of Venezuelan crude oil to another U.S. refinery, Phillips 66, anonymous sources have said.

    Chevron Corp recently sold 500,000 barrels of heavy Hamaca to U.S. refiner Phillips 66 to be used in its Sweeny, Texas refinery, the sources told Bloomberg.

    It would be the first such sale since the United States sanctioned Venezuela’s crude oil.

    In separate news, ConocoPhillips, which spun off its downstream business now known as Phillips 66 back in 2012, has expressed its willingness to sell Venezuela’s crude oil in the United States as a way to claw back some of the $10 billion owed by Venezuela. ConocoPhillips’ Venezuelan assets were nationalized in 2007—along with many other oil companies’ assets. ConocoPhillips has been authorized by the United States to negotiate debt recovery with PDVSA.

    Earlier this week, PDVSA assigned a third crude oil cargo to Chevron under the latter’s new license to import sanctioned Venezuelan crude oil after a more than three-year ban.

    Venezuela’s heavy crude oil is prized by U.S. refiners, who, until recently, looked to Russia’s heavy crude to replace it. In December, it was reported that several refiners were hitting up Chevron to get their hands on the rare Venezuelan crude oil.

    It was originally thought that Chevron could prioritize its own refineries, which have a history of using Venezuela’s heavy crude—and the first delivery of 500,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude oil—also Hamaca crude—did go to its Pascagoula, Mississippi refinery.

    Hamaca crude is an extra-heavy, sour blend, and the recent cargoes came from the Petropiar oil JV operated by Chevron and PDVSA. 

    While Chevron is the only oil company with approval from the U.S. to import crude oil from Venezuela, other oil and gas companies are looking for a similar authorization—including foreign oil and gas companies who are demanding fair treatment.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 15:40

  • The Best Video On Climate Change That You Will Ever See
    The Best Video On Climate Change That You Will Ever See

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    If you only play one video this year, the video below is the one you should play…

    Annual CO2 emissions chart from Data in Our World.

    This is an absolutely brilliant speech by British satirist, Konstantine Kisin.

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    Is Kisin’s Video For You?

    • If you think that you, president Biden, Gretta, Al Gore, or anyone in government will do anything that matters about climate change, the video is for you.

    • If you think that you, president Biden, Gretta, Al Gore, or anyone in government will not do anything that matters about climate change, the video is also for you.

    It’s less than seven minutes long. Play it.

    Play the video then think about the lead chart and the path of China and India while noting the whole continent of Africa is not even on the scale. 

    By the way, the population of India will soon to surpass China. 

    Importantly, and on a personal level, the single best thing you can do for the environment is to not have kids

    Climate Deniers

    I have been accused of being a climate denier. Mercy. Actually, I am a climate realist.

    Climate change is real and constant and has been ever since the earth formed. 

    The debate is over how much is manmade and even more importantly, what to do about it, whether it’s manmade or not.

    Regarding what percentage is manmade, I don’t know, nor does anyone else. But let’s say you disagree. 

    Then OK, I agree with you. Let’s assume recent climate change is 100% manmade. So what do we do about it?

    That has been my line of questioning for a long time. I just have never been able to express my line of thinking as clearly as Kisin in the above video.

    A Big Green Mess in Germany With Coal a Stunning 31 Percent of Electricity

    Assume there is a problem, then if there is a solution, it will not be the like of Gretta, AOC, Al Gore, president Biden, or the Green Party hypocrites who will fix it.

    Look no further than the Big Green Mess in Germany for what happens when politicians are faced with the decision to heat homes cheaply or cut back on CO2. 

    The EU plans to tax other nations for not addressing climate change, while Germany bulldozes a town to increase the size of a coal mine. It’s also lignite coal, the dirtiest kind.

    Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, a Green who is Germany’s economy and climate minister, defended the agreement as “a good decision for climate protection” that fulfills many of the environmentalists’ demands and saves five other villages from demolition.

    World’s Largest Tax Scheme

    For discussion of the EU’s hypocritical carbon tax scheme, please see EU Imposes the World’s Largest Carbon Tax Scheme.

    Meanwhile, the US is marching down an idiotic path towards electric vehicle mandates with no plan on where to get the minerals for the batteries. Nor does president Biden have an reasonable plan for the infrastructure needed. 

    Fed Chair Warns President Biden “We will not be a climate policymaker”

    Preposterous ideas have gotten so out of hand that Fed Chair Warns President Biden “We will not be a climate policymaker”

    Without explicit congressional legislation, it would be inappropriate for us to use our monetary policy or supervisory tools to promote a greener economy or to achieve other climate-based goals. We are not, and will not be, a climate policymaker,” said Jerome Powell.

    I am not one who often praises the Fed, but that paragraph deserves a standing ovation. 

    Constant Hype

    The hype is constant and has been consistently wrong. In 2019 I noted Ocasio-Cortez Says World Will End in 12 Years: Here’s What to Do About It

    The world will still be here in 2050.

    On October 29, 2022, I noted UN Seeks $4 to 6 Trillion Per Year to Address Climate

    Yeah right. Politicians are going to give Africa, India, and third world countries trillions of dollars and tax the hell out of them if they don’t comply.

    The Hope of Fusion vs the Pomp of Politicians and Climate Activists

    If there is a climate problem, science will find the answer, not politicians or activists.

    For discussion, please see The Hope of Fusion vs the Pomp of Politicians and Climate Activists

    Nonetheless, there’s A Mad Rush to Build More EV Factories despite the fact we have no idea or plan to secure the minerals needed for the batteries. 

    And Germany has turned to bulldozing towns to produce more coal. 

    What a hoot.

    *  *  *

    Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 14:54

  • All The President's Men: Biden's Use Of Lawyers Raises Additional Concerns Over Handling Classified Material
    All The President’s Men: Biden’s Use Of Lawyers Raises Additional Concerns Over Handling Classified Material

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    Below is my column in the New York Post on the curious use of lawyers by President Joe Biden in the classified document controversy. There was a clear decision made to rely on his own counsel rather than the FBI or security officers after the discovery of highly classified documents in a closet in a private office. The decision clearly brings greater control and protection for the President, but it can itself be viewed as additional evidence of gross mishandling of classified material. In the movie “All The President’s Men,” Woodward chastises his colleague Bernstein that “I don’t mind what you did; I mind how you did it.” President Biden may face the same objection in his decision to use counsel to search for classified material.

    Here is the column:

    The discovery of a fourth set of classified documents, at the Biden residence in Delaware, has further undermined the White House’s virtual mantra that the president “takes classified documents very seriously.”

    Putting aside the repeated movement of highly classified documents over six years, one curious element has emerged in this scandal: the use of private counsel.

    Not only did President Joe Biden enlist lawyers to clear out his private Washington office; he then used them — rather than security officers or the FBI — to search for additional classified documents.

    The initial use of lawyers is notable. While it seems a fairly pricey moving crew, Biden could argue a trove of documents might require a judgment on where they should be sent and whether they belong to Biden, the Penn Biden Center or the government.

    But why was a legal team sent in six years after Biden took the documents on leaving as vice president? Were the lawyers specifically selected because they had clearances, an acknowledgment there might be classified material unlawfully housed in the office?

    After the fourth batch of documents was discovered this week (the third found in Delaware), Richard Sauber, referred to as the “special counsel to the president,” stressed that he has a clearance. Sauber admits the lawyers who found the first batch at the residence didn’t have clearances but says he found the later documents.

    It remains unclear which lawyers were involved in which discoveries, whether they had clearances and (if so) at what level.

    In fact, it seems to suggest Biden continued to use uncleared lawyers after his team found highly classified documents Nov. 2 in the Penn Biden office closet in Washington.

    That itself could be viewed as gross mishandling of classified information.

    It’s strange Biden did not use security officers or the FBI to conduct further searches. The president has a host of people who regularly handle classified material. So why use the lawyers?

    The answer appears the same as in the case of Hillary Clinton’s emails: control. Using private counsel allows Biden to raise attorney-client privilege. Trump also used counsel, but eventually the FBI raided his home to search and remove not just classified material but documents found in boxes with that material.

    While that attorney-client privilege can be overcome under a “crime/fraud exception,” it adds a level of initial protection. It also allowed Biden to control the discovery and initial record of the discovery of classified information.

    The key to any investigation will be the chain of custody extending back to the documents’ removal in 2017 when Biden left office. How these documents appeared in their discovered locations is known only to his lawyers. It’s a link in the chain of custody that Biden effectively controls.

    With Mar-a-Lago, the FBI was criticized for staging documents to be shown in the storage room. The photos were then leaked to an eager media. There will be no staged photos of documents alongside Time magazine covers for Biden.

    Nor were documents he housed with classified documents removed. Indeed, it’s not clear if the FBI will know what documents were stored in the same boxes.

    What was potentially lost is significant. Classified documents are generally supposed to be in folders with a thick, colored border and large printed classification warnings. Were some of those folders observable before they were moved? If so, anyone could tell a pile contained classified material, including the president and passersby.

    Likewise, the initial discovery could show the context of surrounding material. The FBI at Mar-a-Lago carefully photographed that context and its search. Here, we’re relying on counsel to have kept such a record when most lawyers would be reluctant to do so given the risk to their client.

    The key is that unlike FBI agents, these lawyers are not acting on behalf of the public interest but for the president’s personal interests.

    If there are criminal charges, the key witnesses will be lawyers representing the president as an individual. They are more likely to minimize incriminating or embarrassing elements.

    And they are themselves under scrutiny. Since they may not have had sufficient clearances to do this work, it is in their interest to downplay any expectations or warnings of additional classified material scattered around Biden’s home or office.

    Concern over the use of lawyers has only grown with time. Biden not only continued to have his lawyers search after the first discovery, but did so for months through subsequent discoveries.

    After finding highly classified material in Biden’s garage Dec. 20, private counsel — not the FBI — found another document in an adjacent room Jan 11. Sauber found more classified documents the next day.

    Those last two findings followed White House assurances that the “thorough” search was “completed.” It obviously wasn’t thorough enough.

    They raised another question. It would seem unlikely a document with a proper classified cover could be missed. The folder has thick red or yellow borders running around the edges and large black classifications like “TOP SECRET” emblazoned across the top. If that was missed, the earlier searches were clearly negligent.

    Alternatively, and more concerning, the internal documents might have been removed from the folders and stored without cover. That would indicate someone removed and reviewed them — an act showing knowledge of the classified status. If they were removed at Biden’s residence, he would be the chief suspect in such use.

    It would utterly destroy the “inadvertence” defense.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 14:30

  • Musk Says ZeroHedge Did "Nothing Warranting Suspension" After 'Twitter Files' Expose Big Pharma Bullying
    Musk Says ZeroHedge Did “Nothing Warranting Suspension” After ‘Twitter Files’ Expose Big Pharma Bullying

    Today’s Twitter Files drop contains several notable pieces of evidence.

    First, that lobbyists for the pharmaceutical industry launched a ‘massive lobbying blitz to crush any effort to share patents/IP for new covid-related medicine,” according to The Intercept‘s Lee Fang. As part of this effort, lobbying group BIO “wrote to the newly elected Biden admin, demanding the U.S. gov sanction any country attempting to violate patent rights and create generic low cost covid medicine or vaccines.

    Of note, Pfizer and BioNTech raked in $37 billion in revenue in 2021 alone from the COVID-19 vaccine, while Moderna made $17.7 billion the same year (and has recently announced a plan to hike the price of the Covid-19 vaccine by approximately 400%).

    BioNTech, which developed the Pfizer vaccine, “reached out to Twitter to request that Twitter directly censor users tweeting at them to ask for generic low cost vaccines.

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    According to Fang, “Twitter’s reps responded quickly to the pharma request,” while “A lobbyist in Europe asked the content moderation team to monitor the accounts of Pfizer, AstraZeneca & of activist hashtags like #peoplesvaccine.”

    Meanwhile, the “fake accounts” flagged by the pharmaceutical companies for action were real people – one of whom Fang spoke with on the phone.

    “For more than two years, a global movement has been speaking out against pharmaceutical greed and demanding that everyone, everywhere has the tools to combat pandemics,” said Maaza Seyoum, a campaigner for the People’s Vaccine Alliance. “Whatever nasty tricks companies and governments pull,” she continued, “we cannot and will not be silenced.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsSecond, ‘Pfizer & Moderna’s lobbying group, BIO, fully funded a special content moderation campaign designed by a contractor called Public Good Projects (PGP), which worked w/Twitter to set content moderation rules around covid “misinformation.”‘ according to Fang.

    BIO funded the PGP campaign, “Stronger,”  to the tune of $1.275 million. Its focus? Helping Twitter ‘create content moderation bots,’ selecting which public health accounts would be verified, and helping to crowdsource content takedowns.

    Of note, the Moderna/Pfizer-funded campaign included regular emails to Twitter officals with takedown and verification requests.

    “Here’s an example of those types of emails that went straight to Twitter’s lobbyists and content moderators. Many focused on @zerohedge, which was suspended.

    Fang includes a screencap of an email with two excel spreadsheets containing said requests.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsFrom Fang’s Intercept piece, below is one of the flagged tweets in question – which links to a ZeroHedge article aggregated from NakedCapitalism, and which logically posits; “if a vaccinated person and an unvaccinated person have roughly the same capacity to carry, shed and transmit the virus, particularly in its Delta form, what difference does implementing a vaccination passport actually make to the spread of the virus?”

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    “To try and stifle digital dissent during a pandemic, when tweets and emails are some of the only forms of protest available to those locked in their homes, is deeply sinister,” said Nick Dearden, director of Global Justice Now.

    More on one of the people behind this effort, courtesy of Twitter user @TexasLindsay_

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    “To translate the above into layman’s terms she is a narrative enforcer. She’s funded by Big Pharma and aided by Big Brother to be the ministry of truth. She aims to create social norms by means of censorship and propaganda. She wants to tell you & I—how/what to say and think.

    Meanwhile, as this bullying progressed this was happening…

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    Finally, as this latest ‘Twitter Files’ thread spreads across a holiday market, Elon Musk himself has opined on the efforts to bully the former Twitter executives into censoring ZeroHedge:

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    We’ll take the ‘being jerks’ jab… isn’t that what the media is supposed to be?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 13:55

  • Peter Schiff: The Recession Everybody Denies Exists Is Going To Get Worse
    Peter Schiff: The Recession Everybody Denies Exists Is Going To Get Worse

    Via SchiffGold.com,

    Peter Schiff recently appeared on Dan Bongino’s Unfiltered on Fox News to talk about the economy, inflation, the stock market, the Federal Reserve and investing in 2023. Peter said the recession that everybody denies exists is going to get worse, and so is inflation.

    Some people in the mainstream seem to think a big stock market rally is in the cards. Peter said the optimism is unfounded.

    I don’t think it’s going to be a good year for the stock market. I think there are going to be some stocks that do well. Unfortunately, most Americans don’t own those stocks.”

    Peter said the ones that most investors do own are going to go down.

    The very popular stocks that a lot of people have crowded into during the bubble – these stocks, even though they’ve come down a lot in 2022, they still have a long way to fall. And I think there’s a lot of risk in 2023, not just in the market, but in the economy.

    Bongino referenced an op-ed in the New York Post by Ken Fisher arguing that the bad news, especially in the job market, is already written into the script and priced into the market. That means we may well have a “summer of love” in the stock market with a healthy rebound. Peter said people are underestimating just how bad the news is going to get.

    First of all, a lot of people think inflation is going to come down. It’s not. I think the decline is what’s transitory. I think we’re going to be making new year-over-year highs in inflation before the end of the year.”

    Peter has been arguing that a declining dollar and an ultimate Fed pivot away from monetary tightening will mean more inflation down the road, even if we get some relief in the CPI over the next few months. He drove this point home in a recent podcast.

    That is the really important point that seems to be lost on everybody. What investors are trying to figure out is ‘has inflation peaked?’ Have we seen peak inflation? Now, I think the answer to that question is no. I don’t think inflation has peaked. Now, it may have peaked for a short period of time. It may take until the second half of 2023 before we get a year-over-year rate of inflation that was higher than the high water mark for 2022. Who knows? Maybe it will take into 2024. But the one thing that I’m certain of is that we’re not going anywhere near 2%. And that is what investors still don’t understand — that the days of low inflation are over, and we’re living in an era of high inflation. That is a complete game-changer for the Fed and the Fed has yet to come to terms with this new reality, nor has the market.”

    And during his discussion with Bongino, Peter said the notion the economy is about to rebound is nothing but a fantasy.

    The recession that everybody denies exists is actually going to get worse. So, we’re going to have a weaker economy and stronger inflation. The markets are not expecting that, and neither is the Fed.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 13:20

  • Republicans Call Out 'Double Standard' Over Biden Classified Docs Hypocrisy
    Republicans Call Out ‘Double Standard’ Over Biden Classified Docs Hypocrisy

    Congressional Republicans are crying foul over the double standard applied to President Biden’s mishandling of classified materials vs. the treatment former President Trump received.

    To review, President Biden’s lawyers – who didn’t have clearance to view classified documents, allegedly stumbled upon a cache of them at his old office at the Penn Biden Center on Nov. 2, 2022, the day before midterm elections. After waiting nearly two months, more documents were found on December 20, January 9 and January 12 – the date on which AG Merrick Garland finally appointed a special counsel to investigate.

    Trump, on the other hand, who has a potential constitutional argument that he could have declassified the documents recovered from his locked safe at his highly surveilled Mar-a-Lago residence, was treated to a raid by Biden’s DOJ

    “Where’s the raid of Biden’s garage?” asked House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA).

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    “Now, we learn that Biden kept additional classified materials at his home in Delaware in his GARAGE. Yet there was no raid. No ransacking of Biden’s home. Nothing,” Rep. Dan Crenshaw tweeted, trying to get back in MAGA’s good graces.

    House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) called the situation “another faux pas by the Biden administration,” by “treating law differently based upon your political beliefs.”

    “That’s why we had to provide a new entity from our Church-style [committee] to look after the weaponization of what’s gone on that you want an equal playing of the law to all Americans.”

    McCarthy also pointed out the fact that officials have not released any photos of the documents recovered from Biden’s office and home. The Justice Department included a photo of materials retrieved from Trump’s residence in a court filing that was made public. –The Hill

    “More classified documents Biden took from the Obama White House have been found at Biden’s Delaware house next to his Corvette. Biden assures the public it’s OK because his garage is locked… So, when’s the FBI raid?” said Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) in a Thursday tweet.

    Trump was also ‘raided’ by the media, so to speak.

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    And crickets over Biden aside from scant cardboard reporting on the matter.

    In fact, CNN‘s Jake Tapper is earning his paycheck carrying water for the regime:

    Meanwhile, House Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-KY) has sent letters to the National Archives and the White House Counsel’s office requesting documents and communications pertaining to the classified materials, along with a request for information about the documents themselves and who may have been able to access them.

    And Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH), the top GOP member of the House Intelligence Committee, sent AG Garland and DNI Avril Haines a request for a classified briefing about the documents.

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 12:45

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