- 40,000 UK Rail Workers To Strike Next Week, Will Paralyze Transportation Network
40,000 UK Rail Workers To Strike Next Week, Will Paralyze Transportation Network
Tens of thousands of railway workers are preparing to strike across Britain and may cause transportation chaos next week as they demand higher wages amid the worst inflation in four decades.
Financial Times reports that 40,000 workers across Network Rail Limited, the owner and infrastructure manager of most of the railway networks in the UK, and 13 train operating companies, will strike next week for higher pay and against job cuts in one of the most significant strikes to hit UK railways in three decades.
Transportation turmoil begins next week as Network Rail warned only 4,500 of the regular 20,000 daily trains would be operational — hours of operation will be reduced to 11 hours per day, between 0730 to 1830. Large parts of the railway network will be closed.
Network Rail lays out a map of the affected service areas that span the country.
“Make no mistake, the level of service we will be able to offer will be significantly compromised and passengers need to take that into account and to plan ahead and only travel if it’s really necessary to do so,” Network Rail boss Andrew Haines told BBC.
BBC describes the planned walkout as the “biggest rail strike in modern history” and comes one week after RMT and Network Rail couldn’t agree on higher pay for workers.
Haines said Network Rail expects the strike to cost up to £150m in lost revenue.
“Once we have taken the pain of next week we will have around £150mn less money available to us as a system. The Treasury will either have to decide to fund that . . . or we will have to make more savings,” he told FT.
Train strikes, record petrol prices at the pump, soaring energy and food bills, and overall inflation spiking to four-decade highs appear to be reminiscent of the stagflation years of the 1970s.
Earlier Thursday, the Bank of England hiked rates for the 5th straight time, raising interest rates by 25bps to 1.25% to curb inflation. We know that inflation is sticky, and rate hikes bring forward UK recession risks.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/17/2022 – 02:45 - German Official Warns Of Gas Shortages, Bankruptcies, Massive Price Hikes That Will Send "Shockwaves Throughout The Country"
German Official Warns Of Gas Shortages, Bankruptcies, Massive Price Hikes That Will Send “Shockwaves Throughout The Country”
By John Cody of Remix News
A gas shortage and high prices will send “shockwaves through the country,” leading to landlords cutting the heat for tenants and widespread company bankruptcies, warned Klaus Müller, the head of Germany’s Federal Network Agency, which is the regulatory office for electricity, gas, telecommunications, postal services, and railway markets.
Müller paints a bleak picture about the crisis in an interview with German newspaper Rheinische Post, saying it will “send shockwaves throughout the country. Banks will ramp up their business with installment loans, and ailing companies will fall into insolvency.”
Müller’s office, which is a federal agency within the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, has a bird’s eye view of the economic situation in Germany and also special insight into how economic conditions will develop into the future.
Müller says he expects gas prices to continue to climb, resulting in increased inflation that goes far beyond energy. He also warns that there will be a dramatic lack of gas in the winter, which could lead to landlords turning down the heat to save on energy. In turn, Germans may have to grapple with colder apartments.
In a sign that the German government is operating under the assumption that a potential crisis could develop in winter, there are already talks about potentially lowering heating requirement for landlords.
“Tenancy law stipulates that the landlord must adjust the heating system during the heating period so that the minimum temperature falls between 20 and 22 degrees Celsius. The government could temporarily lower the heating requirements for landlords. We are discussing this with politicians,” Müller said.
The government has already pushed businesses and citizens to reduce their energy consumption, but that pressure may come in the form of new laws and regulations in the future, with Müller calling for more pressure to be applied to save gas. Although Germany has pushed for a general ban on Russian oil imports, the country is highly reliant on natural gas from Russia. If Russia were to cut gas in the critical winter months or even restrict supplies, it could lead to critical damage to the German economy, a scenario energy experts have already warned about.
Germans will not only be colder in their apartments, but companies will also face mass bankruptcies, said Müller. However, he said government policies could help mitigate financial losses and preserve critical gas supplies. He said he wants to encourage companies to save gas with a bonus scheme.
“We want to establish mechanisms to reward companies that voluntarily give up gas quotas with a premium. It is always better when adjustments are made via prices rather than via direct state intervention.”
Müller is also pessimistic about price trends in Germany, and expects the situation to deteriorate.
“Gas prices for private households have already multiplied compared to the pre-war period. There can be a nasty surprise for tenants if high back payments are due,” he said, referring to the fact that many Germans get surprise bills at the end of a billing cycle if energy prices rise.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/17/2022 – 02:00 - Escobar: The "New G8" Meets China's "Three Rings"
Escobar: The “New G8” Meets China’s “Three Rings”
The coming of the new G8 points to the inevitable advent of BRICS +, one of the key themes to be discussed in the upcoming BRICS summit in China.
The speaker of the Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, may have created the defining acronym for the emerging multipolar world: “the new G8”.
As Volodin noted, “the United States has created conditions with its own hands so that countries wishing to build an equal dialogue and mutually beneficial relations will actually form a ‘new G8’ together with Russia.”
This non Russia-sanctioning G8, he added, is 24.4% ahead of the old one, which is in fact the G7, in terms of GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP), as G7 economies are on the verge of collapsing and the U.S. registers record inflation.
The power of the acronym was confirmed by one of the researchers on Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Sergei Fedorov: three BRICS members (Brazil, China and India) alongside Russia, plus Indonesia, Iran, Turkey and Mexico, all non adherents to the all-out Western economic war against Russia, will soon dominate global markets.
Fedorov stressed the power of the new G8 in population as well as economically: “If the West, which restricted all international organizations, follows its own policies, and pressures everyone, then why are these organizations necessary? Russia does not follow these rules.”
The new G8, instead, “does not impose anything on anyone, but tries to find common solutions.”
The coming of the new G8 points to the inevitable advent of BRICS +, one of the key themes to be discussed in the upcoming BRICS summit in China. Argentina is very much interested in becoming part of the extended BRICS and those (informal) members of the new G8 – Indonesia, Iran, Turkey, Mexico – are all likely candidates.
The intersection of the new G8 and BRICS + will lead Beijing to turbo-charge what has already been conceptualized as the Three Rings strategy by Cheng Yawen, from the Institute of International Relations and Public Affairs at the Shanghai International Studies University.
Cheng argues that since the beginning of the 2018 U.S.-China trade war the Empire of Lies and its vassals have aimed to “decouple”; thus the Middle Kingdom should strategically downgrade its relations with the West and promote a new international system based on South-South cooperation.
Looks like if it walks and talks like the new G8, that’s because it’s the real deal.
The revolution reaches the “global countryside”
Cheng stresses how “the center-periphery hierarchy of the West has been perpetuated as an implicit rule” in international relations; and how China and Russia, “because of their strict capital controls, are the last two obstacles to further U.S. control of the global periphery”.
So how would the Three Rings – in fact a new global system – be deployed?
-
The first ring “is China’s neighboring countries in East Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East;
-
the second ring is the vast number of developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America;
-
and the third ring extends to the traditional industrialized countries, mainly Europe and the United States.”
The basis for building the Three Rings is deeper Global South integration. Cheng notes how “between 1980-2021, the economic volume of developing countries rose from 21 to 42.2 percent of the world’s total output.”
And yet “current trade flows and mutual investments of developing countries are still heavily dependent on the financial and monetary institutions/networks controlled by the West. In order to break their dependence on the West and further enhance economic and political autonomy, a broader financial and monetary cooperation, and new sets of instruments among developing countries should be constructed”.
This is a veiled reference to the current discussions inside the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), with Chinese participation, designing an alternative financial-monetary system not only for Eurasia but for the Global South – bypassing possible American attempts to enforce a sort of Bretton Woods 3.0.
Cheng uses a Maoist metaphor to illustrate his point – referring to ‘the revolutionary path of ‘encircling the cities from the countryside’”. What is needed now, he argues, is for China and the Global South to “overcome the West’s preventive measures and cooperate with the ‘global countryside’ – the peripheral countries – in the same way.”
So what seems to be in the horizon, as conceptualized by Chinese academia, is a “new G8/BRICS+” interaction as the revolutionary vanguard of the emerging multipolar world, designed to expand to the whole Global South.
That of course will mean a deepened internationalization of Chinese geopolitical and geoeconomic power, including its currency. Cheng qualifies the creation of a “three ring “ international system as essential to “break through the [American] siege”.
It’s more than evident that the Empire won’t take that lying down.
The siege will continue. Enter the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), spun as yet another proverbial “effort” to – what else – contain China, but this time all the way from Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia, with Oceania thrown in as a bonus.
The American spin on IPEF is heavy on “economic engagement”: fog of (hybrid) war disguising the real intent to divert as much trade as possible from China – which produces virtually everything – to the U.S. – which produces very little.
The Americans give away the game by heavily focusing their strategy on 7 of the 10 ASEAN nations – as part of yet another desperate dash to control the American-denominated “Indo-Pacific”. Their logic: ASEAN after all needs a “stable partner”; the American economy is “comparatively stable”; thus ASEAN must subject itself to American geopolitical aims.
IPEF, under the cover of trade and economics, plays the same old tune, with the U.S. going after China from three different angles.
-
The South China Sea, instrumentalizing ASEAN.
-
The Yellow and East China Seas, instrumentalizing Japan and South Korea to prevent direct Chinese access to the Pacific.
-
The larger “Indo-Pacific” (that’s were India as a member of the Quad comes in).
It’s all labeled as a sweet apple pie of “stronger and more resilient Indo-Pacific with diversified trade.”
BRI corridors are back
Beijing is hardly losing any sleep thinking about IPEF: after all most of its multiple trade connections across ASEAN are rock solid. Taiwan though is a completely different story.
At the annual Shangri-La dialogue this past weekend in Singapore, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe went straight to the point, actually defining Beijing’s vision for an East Asia order (not “rules-based”, of course).
Taiwan independence is a “dead end”, said General Wei, as he asserted Beijing’s peaceful aims while vigorously slamming assorted U.S. “threats against China”. At any attempt at interference, “we will fight at all costs, and we will fight to the very end”. Wei also handily dismissed the U.S. drive to “hijack” Indo-Pacific nations, without even mentioning IPEF.
China at it stands is firmly concentrated on stabilizing its western borders – which will allow it to devote more time to the South China Sea and the “Indo-Pacific” further on down the road.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi went on a crucial trip to Kazakhstan – a full member of both BRI and the EAEU – where he met President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and all his counterparts from the Central Asian “stans” in a summit in Nur-Sultan. The group – billed as C+C5 – discussed everything from security, energy and transportation to Afghanistan and vaccines.
In sum, this was all about developing much-needed corridors of BRI/ New Silk Roads – in sharp contrast to the proverbial Western lamentations about BRI reaching a dead end.
Two BRI-to-the-bone projects will go on overdrive: the China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline Line D, and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. Both have been years in the making, but now have become absolutely essential, and will be the flagship BRI projects in the Central Asian corridor.
The China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline Line D will link Turkmenistan’s gas fields to Xinjiang via Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. That was the main theme of the discussions when Turkmen President Berdimuhamedow visited Beijing for the Winter Olympics.
The 523 km China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway for its part will crucially link the two Central Asian “stans” to the China-Europe freight rail network, via the existing rail networks in Turkmenistan.
Considering the current incandescent geopolitical scenario in Ukraine, this is a bombshell in itself, because it will enable freight from China to travel via Iran or via Caspian ports, bypassing sanctioned Russia. No hard feelings, in terms of the Russia-China strategic partnership: just business.
The Kyrgyz, predictably, were ecstatic. Construction begins next year. According to Kyrgyz President Zhaparov, “there will be jobs. Our economy will boom.”
Talk about China acting decisively in its “first ring”, in Central Asia. Don’t expect anything of such geoeconomic breadth and scope being “offered” by IPEF anywhere in ASEAN.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 23:40 -
- Australia's Energy Crisis Worsens As Gov't Ask People To Keep Lights Off To Avert Blackouts
Australia’s Energy Crisis Worsens As Gov’t Ask People To Keep Lights Off To Avert Blackouts
Australia’s energy minister asked Sydney and the New South Wales (eastern part of the country) residents to turn off lights and energy-intensive appliances in the evening to prevent power blackouts due to an ongoing energy crunch, The Independent reports.
The federal energy minister, Chris Bowen, asked residents in a televised address to turn off energy-intensive devices between “6 to 8 [pm]” to mitigate risks of a spike in power during peak hours. He pointed to several offline coal-fired plants because of maintenance and unexpected issues.
Reuters notes that 65% of eastern Australia’s power is generated by coal, but more than a quarter of that capacity is offline.
Wholesale electricity prices have soared and on Monday exceeded the capped price of A$300 per megawatt-hour. Above A$300, coal power generation plants lost money and forced some operators to shutter power generation units, thus removing energy capacity off the grid and sending prices even higher. The rise of power prices began when coal prices jumped following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Bowen snapped at a journalist when asked if more coal power is the answer the energy crunch.
Chris Bowen isn’t having any of Uhlmann’s ‘wind doesn’t always blow’ rhetoric.
“the rain doesn’t always fall either, but we manage to store the water – we can store the renewable energy if we have the investment”#auspol pic.twitter.com/LjJkEr3zJy
— Squizz (@SquizzSTK) June 16, 2022
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
“The situation in recent days has posed challenges to the entire energy industry, and suspending the market would simplify operations during the significant outages across the energy supply chain,” Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) chief executive Daniel Westerman said in a statement.
“It was understandable generators had held back supply in light of the price caps along with unplanned outages and supply challenges with coal and gas, but having to direct generators to provide supply had made it impossible to maintain normal market operations,” Westerman said.
Australia’s dysfunctional power grid hasn’t stopped at coal. In the last three weeks, declining solar output and periods of low wind have created power generation challenges, which have placed a heavier burden on fossil fuel generators.
Also, the coldest start to a winter season in decades is boosting heating demand and worsening the problem.
Australia better find a way to bring more coal power plants online or risk widespread blackouts amid high demand because of the winter chill.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 23:20 - Yen Tumbles As BoJ Refuses To Change Ultra-Easy Monetary Policy
Yen Tumbles As BoJ Refuses To Change Ultra-Easy Monetary Policy
The yen weakened on Friday after the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary stance, increasing policy divergence with its global peers.
“While the decision was within expectations, those who want to challenge the BOJ will continue to do so, putting focus on Japan’s upper house election,” said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities.
“I doubt if the challenge will pick up immediately after today’s decision, but the battle will resume in July.”
Governor Haruhiko Kuroda continued to signal a dovish stance, but the BOJ did make a rare reference to the currency market, saying it needed to watch its impact on the economy and markets.
“In this situation, it is necessary to pay due attention to developments in financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japan’s economic activity and prices,” the central bank said in a statement, referring to risks from commodities, Covid-19, the war in Ukraine and overseas economic developments.
The 10Y JGB Yield is trading at around 27bps (2bps above the BoJ’s YCC upper bound), while JGB futures are signaling the break is imminent still…
That is the highest 10Y yield since January 2016.
As Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities, notes:
“If the BOJ were to be pushed into a corner, it would come from the yen weakness progressing further or the proportion of BOJ holdings of 10-year bonds approaching 100%. Neither is taking place as of now.”
The immediate reaction is obvious – dumping of the yen as The BoJ is left to provide unlimited support/defense for the JGB market in th eface of unrelenting pressure sending yields higher…
The simple reality is – The BoJ has no way out of this… tick, tock!
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 23:00 - Global Nuclear Stockpile Set To Grow For First Time Since Cold War
Global Nuclear Stockpile Set To Grow For First Time Since Cold War
Authored by Kenny Stancil via Common Dreams,
The world’s stockpile of nuclear warheads is expected to expand in the coming years for the first time since the 1980s and the catastrophic threat of those weapons being used is escalating, a leading arms watchdog said Monday.
“If the nuclear-armed states take no immediate and concrete action on disarmament, then the global inventory of nuclear warheads could soon begin to increase for the first time since the Cold War,” Matt Korda, an associate researcher with the Weapons of Mass Destruction Program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said in a statement released alongside SIPRI’s annual report.
As of early 2022, nine countries—Russia, the United States, China, France, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea—possessed a combined total of 12,705 nuclear warheads, SIPRI estimates. Together, Russia and the U.S. control more than 90% of this global inventory.
Of the estimated 12,705 nuclear warheads in existence at the start of 2022, roughly 9,440 were in military stockpiles for potential use, according to SIPRI. Of those, an estimated 3,732 were deployed with missiles and aircraft, and about 2,000—nearly all of which belonged to Russia or the U.S.—were kept in a state of high operational readiness.
While the total number of nuclear weapons decreased slightly from 13,080 last January to 12,705 this January, SIPRI expects the global supply of weapons capable of annihilating human life on Earth to increase over the next decade.
“All of the nuclear-armed states are increasing or upgrading their arsenals and most are sharpening nuclear rhetoric and the role nuclear weapons play in their military strategies,” said Wilfred Wan, director of SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Program. “This is a very worrying trend.”
As the think tank explains:
Although Russian and U.S. total warhead inventories continued to decline in 2021, this was due to the dismantling of warheads that had been retired from military service several years ago. The number of warheads in the two countries’ useable military stockpiles remained relatively stable in 2021. Both countries’ deployed strategic nuclear forces were within the limits set by a bilateral nuclear arms reduction treaty (2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, New START). Note, however, that New START does not limit total non-strategic nuclear warhead inventories.
China is in the middle of a substantial expansion of its nuclear weapon arsenal, which satellite images indicate includes the construction of over 300 new missile silos. Several additional nuclear warheads are thought to have been assigned to operational forces in 2021 following the delivery of new mobile launchers and a submarine.
The U.K. in 2021 announced its decision to increase the ceiling on its total warhead stockpile, in a reversal of decades of gradual disarmament policies. While criticizing China and Russia for lack of nuclear transparency, the U.K. also announced that it would no longer publicly disclose figures for the country’s operational nuclear weapon stockpile, deployed warheads, or deployed missiles.
In early 2021 France officially launched a program to develop a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN). India and Pakistan appear to be expanding their nuclear arsenals, and both countries introduced and continued to develop new types of nuclear delivery system in 2021. Israel—which does not publicly acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons—is also believed to be modernizing its nuclear arsenal.
North Korea continues to prioritize its military nuclear program as a central element of its national security strategy. While North Korea conducted no nuclear test explosions or long-range ballistic missile tests during 2021, SIPRI estimates that the country has now assembled up to 20 warheads, and possesses enough fissile material for a total of 45–55 warheads.
“There are clear indications that the reductions that have characterized global nuclear arsenals since the end of the Cold War have ended,” said Hans Kristensen, an associate senior fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Program and director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists.
An unarmed US Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile tested in Feb.2020, US Air Force image Since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in late February, experts have warned that the ongoing war in Europe could spiral into a direct conflict between Moscow and NATO—both flush with nuclear weapons—but the U.S.-led military alliance has continued to prioritize weapons shipments over diplomacy.
“Relations between the world’s great powers,” SIPRI board chair and former Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven lamented Monday, “have deteriorated further at a time when humanity and the planet face an array of profound and pressing common challenges that can only be addressed by international cooperation.”
Despite issuing a joint statement on January 3 affirming that “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought” and reaffirming that they intend to adhere to non-proliferation, disarmament, and arms control agreements and pledges, Russia, the U.S., China, France, and the U.K.—all five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—continue to enlarge or modernize their nuclear arsenals.
During its military assault on Ukraine, Russia has even openly threatened to use nuclear weapons. As bilateral talks between Russia and the U.S. have ground to a halt amid the war, none of the other seven nuclear-armed states have pursued arms control negotiations.
In addition, the U.N. Security Council’s five permanent members have expressed opposition to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons that entered into force last January when it was ratified by 50 governments, and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, more commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, has yet to be restored by the Biden administration. U.S. President Joe Biden’s latest Nuclear Posture Review, released in March, has also been condemned for failing to commit to a no-first-use policy.
“Although there were some significant gains in both nuclear arms control and nuclear disarmament in the past year,” said SIPRI director Dan Smith, “the risk of nuclear weapons being used seems higher now than at any time since the height of the Cold War.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 23:00 - Amazon Takes Flight With First 'Prime Air' Deliveries In California
Amazon Takes Flight With First ‘Prime Air’ Deliveries In California
Amazon customers in Lockeford, California, will be the first in the US to receive packages via drone. The drone delivery option, called Prime Air, will fly packages to customers’ backyards in Lockeford, an unincorporated part of San Joaquin County, about 50 miles south of Sacramento.
“Lockeford residents will play an important role in defining the future. Their feedback about Prime Air, with drones delivering packages in their backyards, will help us create a service that will safely scale to meet the needs of customers everywhere—while adding another innovation milestone to the town’s aviation history,” Amazon said in a corporate press release on Monday.
Each delivery will be limited to five pounds. Amazon said the drones have advanced sensors to navigate around objects, such as trees, chimneys, and telephone poles.
“Lockeford residents will soon have access to one of the world’s leading delivery innovations.
“It’s exciting that Amazon will be listening to the feedback of the San Joaquin County community to inform the future development of this technology,” California State Assemblyman Heath Flora, whose district includes Lockeford, told local news KTXL.
This is just another example of Amazon automating last-mile deliveries to save time, costs, and resources.
Amazon is one of a handful of companies using drones for last-mile deliveries. The others include FedEx, UPS Flight Forward, DHL Parcelcopter, Alphabet’s Wing, and Walmart.
Besides drone deliveries, Amazon wants to put an Alexa drone in homes for “security purposes.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 22:40 - Chinese Banks Freeze Billions In Deposits: Officials Use Health QR Code To Bar Protestors
Chinese Banks Freeze Billions In Deposits: Officials Use Health QR Code To Bar Protestors
Chinese local banks are freezing deposits. Protestors cannot go near banks as their health app for COVID-19 turns red. Authorities provided no explanation…
As The Epoch Times’ Dorothy Li reports, several depositors told The Epoch Times on June 14 that the health code on their COVID-19 app turned red as soon as they scanned venue barcodes at Zhengzhou, the provincial capital city of central China’s Henan Province.
A red health code – indicating a potential COVID-19 patient – means the carrier is barred access to all public places from public toilets to shops to train stations, and faced mandatory quarantine in centralized isolation centers.
They are among tens of thousands of bank depositors who have fought to recover their savings for more than two months. The crisis started in April when at least four lenders in Henan froze cash withdrawals, citing internal system upgrades. But customers said neither these banks nor officials have since offered any information on why or how long, prompting angry protests outside the office of the banking regulator in Zhengzhou in May.
An estimated 1 million customers were reportedly affected, which has left many residents’ life savings at stake and patients unable to pay for regular medical care.
Depositors have been cut off for at least 39.7 billion yuan ($5.91 billion), according to Sanlian LifeWeek, a state-run magazine.
Aggrieved depositors across the country planned another protest in Zhengzhou on June 13 to demand an answer, though previous gatherings were met with silence from local authorities and violence from plain-clothes police.
…
Their plan, however, was thwarted again as their health code turned red at the city’s train stations or highway entrance.
A red code indicates the highest level of risk, meaning the person tests positive, has been close to a COVID-19 patient, or has visited high COVID-risk areas in the past 14 days. Residents with red code face two weeks of centralized isolation.
…
“They [officials] are like robbers,” said a third bank customer who was stopped by police at Zhengzhou train station on June 12 and required to leave.
“We’re all legal depositors … Why couldn’t we even have an explanation?”
…
“It’s so scary,” one user commented.
“If the health code is abused … it could be putting digital handcuffs on us. Everyone will become a prisoner from now on and could be stopped anywhere, anytime.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 22:20 - Trojan Horse: Fake Conservatives Show Support For Red Flag Gun Laws
Trojan Horse: Fake Conservatives Show Support For Red Flag Gun Laws
A handful of Republican senators have recently come out in favor of bipartisan gun control legislation that would strengthen or nationalize Red Flag laws. Proven RINOs Mitch McConnell and Mitt Romney lead the group in calls for a “compromise” with anti-gun Democrats after citing a poll during a GOP meeting which suggests over 79% of gun owning households support using Red Flag measures.
The specific poll has not been revealed to the public and its parameters are unknown, but it follows a pattern of conflicting numbers – Some suggest Republican support for new gun control laws has fallen, while others claim that there has been a dramatic rise in Republican support.
The latest gun control campaign has involved a laser focus on Red Flag laws in particular, and conservatives have been aggressively targeted by propaganda that omits certain truths about how such laws actually work. Most polls ask if participants “want laws to keep guns out of the hands of the mentally ill.” If you say yes, then the polls label you a supporter of Red Flag laws by default. But this is not what Red Flag laws accomplish and the details are carefully left out.
Laws already exist that deny gun purchases to the mentally ill, and this has long been part of the background check process. The requirement is that the person has been involuntarily committed to a psychiatric hospital and has been adjudicated mentally defective by a court of law. In other words, you have to be PROVEN mentally unstable in court to have your gun rights taken away. What Red Flag laws destroy is the right to this due process.
Red Flag laws are already active in some states and Federal level laws would likely expand on existing state restrictions. In most cases Red Flag laws allow gun rights to be taken away from an individual based solely on accusations made by person’s close to the victim. If a report is made to police that you MIGHT be a danger to yourself and others then police can get a court order allowing them to seize your firearms immediately. Then, it is up to you to somehow prove that you are not crazy in order to get your firearms back.
In some legislation, local authorities can even seize your weapons on their own accord without a witness close to you making an accusation. It is essentially “pre-crime” authoritarianism, because it makes it legal for the government to take your rights based on hearsay rather than proof, and based on crimes you might commit rather than crimes you have committed. This has already happened on numerous occasions as American citizens are faced with false accusations that have lead to long court battles just to get their property back.
The great con is that certain GOP leaders (fake conservatives) are arguing that we must support Red Flag laws because they will help save us from more expansive gun control or bans down the road (keep in mind that there were also a handful of GOP politicians that said we should support covid vaccine passport laws). In reality, Red Flag laws are what the establishment has wanted all along; they are the perfect Trojan Horse for undermining constitutional protections. All they have to do is declare you mentally ill and a danger, for any reason they see fit, and now they have the option to raid your home and confiscate your property.
Imagine the amount of abuse that Red Flag laws make possible? Maybe your leftist neighbor doesn’t like you and your MAGA flag? Maybe your ex-wife is vindictive and wants to harm you? Maybe local authorities just don’t like your politics or you have done something which obstructs an agenda?
Remember when the federal government was collecting data on parents who spoke out at school board meetings against Critical Race Theory propaganda in the classrooms? This data collection was done under domestic terrorism provisions. Now imagine a country in which the feds or local government can act on these dossiers and punish parents as “potentially dangerous” terrorists or mentally unstable “conspiracy theorists.”
This is a scenario that will become reality should Red Flag laws become widely accepted or federally enforced. This is why gun rights advocates cannot compromise on anything ever again under any circumstances. Existing laws and background checks already cover these issues, and if a person is mentally unstable then they should be proven as such in a court of law before they have their rights rescinded. This is the law under the Constitution, and Red Flag provisions are a complete violation of the law.
If you support Red Flag laws, then you are hostile to the Bill of Rights and the 2nd Amendment. It’s as simple as that.
Accusations and hearsay are irrelevant. And, acts of gun crime are irrelevant to the rights of people who have done nothing wrong. The perpetrator who committed mass murder in Texas, Salvador Ramos, has already been punished. He is dead. But gun control elitists want the option to punish everyone else for the crimes he committed. They want to exploit the deaths of innocent victims to gain more power over other innocent gun owners and likely their political enemies. This is unacceptable, and Red Flag laws are unacceptable. No compromise can be given to such people.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 22:00 - Data-Tracking Technology Used During Pandemic At Risk Of Abuse, Australian Privacy Expert Warns
Data-Tracking Technology Used During Pandemic At Risk Of Abuse, Australian Privacy Expert Warns
Authored by Nina Nguyen via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to tech-based surveillance, opening up opportunities for the government and corporations to harvest citizens’ data under the radar, says a technology policy director.
The comment comes after media reports in Australia in early June revealed the state government of Victoria—known for spending the longest number of days in lockdown globally—had been using a data agency, which was initially set up to inform pandemic decision-making, to monitor Victorians’ everyday activities beyond COVID-19.
In late May, Human Rights Watch found that 89 percent of educational technologies (EdTech) used for remote learning exploited their access to children by harvesting their personal, location, or learning data.
Many of these apps and websites are endorsed by the Australian government, such as Zoom, Minecraft Education and Microsoft Teams, which remained in place after COVID-19.
Dhakshayini Sooriyakumaran, Director of Tech Policy at Reset Australia, an independent think tank working to counter digital threats, said the pandemic has seen various data extraction technologies get set up as “emergency measures.”
However, she noted these technologies usually come without adequate data protection safeguards or clear purpose limitations, creating loopholes for data abuse.
“There’s no kind of public engagement about what the citizen feels comfortable with in terms of how the government is using that data,” she told The Epoch Times.
“And because of the power differential between institutions and individual citizens, data is used and abused. And we see really dire consequences as a result.”
According to a recent investigation by The Herald Sun, the Victorian government’s data agency Insights Victoria has collected citizens’ public, sensitive, and “commercial-in-confidence” data in an attempt to become the “single truth source” of the government.
Full access was given to Victoria’s police chief commissioner, chief health officer, emergency management commissioner and Premier Dan Andrews’s private political staff.
The revelation came after following calls to withdraw the government’s Information Sharing Bill 2021. The bill has been alleged to undermine a patient’s privacy rights by creating a system “where a person’s most private medical information can be shared on an electronic database without their consent.”
Roger Clarke, secretary of the Australian Privacy Foundation, an NGO formed to protect privacy rights, told The Epoch Times that “it’s hard to tell when a government is being secretive, just what they’re hiding.”
“The factual information that’s publicly available appears to be minimal. And that alone is a serious concern,” Clarke said.
“Decisions about what the law says are subject to parliamentary approval, not a politician’s whim. And decisions about public policy measures require public information and public debate.”
However, some digital privacy experts are divided in terms of how much Australians should be concerned about their privacy rights. Adjunct Professor for Cyber Security Research and Innovation Centre Damien Manuel argued that “the public doesn’t place value on data and the digital trail they leave behind.”
“If people use Facebook as an example, they need to understand they are the product, hence why the service is free. Even using mapping services on mobile phones enable commercial entities to track where people go, yet there is no outcry by the public, but when a government does the same, we seem to be up in arms.”
“If governments had access to rich data sources, under the appropriate oversight, it could be used to deliver improved services for Australians.”
While it might be too far to say the government and corporations have leveraged the pandemic to collect data, institutions could be “opportunistic,” said Reset Tech Policy Director Sooriyakumaran.
“We are living in an economy where data is one of the most valuable resources any institutional entity can actually capture,” she said.
“Government, like corporations, has been trying to fly under the radar and extract as much data as possible.”
Sooriyakumaran further described data-driven decision-making as “a kind of philosophy that institutions are adopting across all sectors and industries.”
The digital privacy expert pointed to a broader trend of widescale data extraction that is taking place across all of the government services, such as Australia’s COVID-19 tracking app, QR code, robot debt, social welfare, Centrelink, employment services, and disability support.
“But I think more and more, particularly with the pandemic, people are starting to understand, oh, governments and corporations are actually quite intertwined when it comes to the value chain of data extraction.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 21:40 - Farewell, Internet Explorer
Farewell, Internet Explorer
Microsoft is shutting off one of the least-beloved titans of the early internet era today – at least for their most recent operating system.
As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, Windows 10 users that try to connect to the Internet Explorer desktop app will from now on be redirected to the company’s new Edge browser. Microsoft had announced the final date of Internet Explorer support in May of last year. Users on older versions of Windows can continue to use the browser and those using Windows 10 can still switch to Internet Explorer mode within Edge if they have to for certain applications (or for nostalgic reasons). The company has said it will provide backwards compatibility in Edge at least until 2029.
The Internet Explorer hit computer screens close to 27 years ago and, according to StatCounter, was a hit initially.
As of 2009, in the era of the web 1.0, the browser still held a global market share of 65 percent for desktop computers. As a Microsoft product, Internet Explorer came pre-installed with the company’s operating systems that were even more ubiquitous then than they are today. Many users initially didn’t bother making the switch to rivals like Firefox, which popped up around 19 years ago in 2002, or Opera, which has been around as long as the Internet Explorer.
With the advent of the web 2.0, however, browser capabilities became more central to user experience and Microsoft developers have been broadly accused of snoozing on those, including through another accomplishment of the web 2.0 – the meme.
Google’s Chrome browser, which debuted in 2008, overtook Internet Explorer’s desktop market share as soon as 2012 and as of January 2016, there were also more Firefox users than Internet Explorer users.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Microsoft’s new endeavor, at least, might give the company hope of hosting a successful browser again. Microsoft Edge, as of June 2022, reached a 10.4 percent market share, ahead of legacy browsers Firefox and Opera as well as Apple’s Safari.
“Today marks the official end of Microsoft’s support for Internet Explorer. RIP to the #1 Chrome installer of all,” quipped video producer and professional athlete Marques Brownlee.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 21:20 - Taiwan Touts "Ability To Attack Beijing" With Supersonic Cruise Missiles
Taiwan Touts “Ability To Attack Beijing” With Supersonic Cruise Missiles
Taiwan officials are now touting that they possess an advanced cruise missile which is capable of hitting locations on the Chinese mainland, which could be launched as a counter-strike in the event of a Chinese military invasion of the island.
You Si Kun, President of Taiwan’s Legislative Assembly, recently said in a media interview that Taiwan’s military wouldn’t shy away from using its Yun Feng supersonic cruise missiles if under direct invasion threat. “Yung Fend missiles can already hit Beijing, and Taiwan has the ability to attack Beijing,” You said, as cited in Liberty Times Net, and further described in Fox News. Supersonic missiles are capable of traveling faster than Mach 1
The top official invoked the example of Russia’s rapid, ‘surprise’ invasion of Ukraine – suggesting that military preparedness as well as basic geography would stall a Chinese PLA advance deep into the island.
“Yun Feng” missile, via Defense.info “The [Chinese Community Party] must cross the Taiwan Strait to attack Taiwan, which is different from Russia’s attack on Ukraine,” You said. “If you want to land, you will fight on the beachhead. If the landing is successful, everyone in Taiwan must be as determined to die as Ukraine. Go out and never let China swallow Taiwan,” You said.
“Taiwan is not invading China, but China should take Taiwan’s ability to attack Beijing into consideration before launching an invasion,” he had warned previously.
The latest variant of the Yun Feng has a reported range of over 1,200 miles, as detailed in the defense analysis source 1945:
…the Yun Feng (Cloud Peak) medium-range supersonic cruise missile, which pro-independence legislative speaker You Si-kun said could hit Beijing….
The Yun Feng is an indigenously produced weapon that can travel 3,400 feet per second with its ramjet engine. Its range is up to 1,242 miles, depending on the variant. The warhead is about 500 pounds of armor-piercing high-fragmentation material.
But to truly blunt the vastly numerically superior Chinese forces (and with much more in its weapons arsenal), Taiwan would likely need thousands of such cruise missiles:
Taiwan began developing the cruise missile in 1996 through the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology. It entered service in 2014. By 2019 there were 20 Yun Feng missiles and 10 mobile launchers.
While the Yun Feng gives Taiwan an important capability, they probably cannot produce enough of the missiles to change the military balance in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan would need hundreds if not thousands of cruise missiles. But it is interesting that Taiwan’s political leaders are not shying away from hawkish rhetoric.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense has allocated more funds in recent years to bolstering the capabilities of Yung Feng missiles to strike deeper in China, writes The War Zone. Its newer variant is reported to have an extended range of 1,200 miles, meaning it could, in theory, successfully strike Beijing, which is roughly 1,150 miles from Taiwan.
Source: CSIS, Center for Strategic and International Studies Washington is meanwhile planning more weapons sales to Taiwan, but which are expected to be geared toward repelling a potential PLA amphibious assault.
A recent report in Nikkei has underscored the US is giving priority to “asymmetric capabilities” – or as the report describes, “those that are agile, inexpensive and effective in dealing with Chinese amphibious operations. Specifically, they cover anti-ship missiles and air defense systems, as well as systems for gathering intelligence needed to identify enemy movements and for initiating early warnings.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 20:40 - Bill Gates & The Cognitive 'Frame' Game
Bill Gates & The Cognitive ‘Frame’ Game
Authored by Thomas Harrington via The Brownstone Institute,
A few weeks back, at the World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos, Bill Gates said some surprising things. In the course of a 56-minute panel discussion the vaccine pusher extraordinaire admitted (starting at the 18:22 mark) that the Covid vaccines do not block infection and that the duration of whatever protection they bring to the table is extremely short.
He later talked (starting at 51:00 mark) of the absurdity of implementing any Covid passport program—and one can logically deduce any other measure to segregate the vaccinated from the unvaccinated—when the injections have shown no ability to do the least that one should expect from a vaccine: prevent infection and transmission.
These admissions violently kick the stool out from under the arguments made in favor of the more assaultive and damaging Covid “containment measures” taken in the past two years, many of which are still being pursued with pitiless vigor by public officials, CEOs, and educational “leaders” all around the world.
Are we to believe that Bill Gates had a sudden impulse to undermine all that he used his billions to mercilessly promote over the last two years? And that he was giving all those currently carrying out those plans permission to stand down?
It’s a nice thought. But I don’t believe it to be the case.
No. Bill was simply engaging in one of the more tried and true techniques of elite information management, the limited hangout, or what I prefer to call a drive to “save the frame” of an argument that is quickly taking on water.
Since Bill and many of the people he has paired up with to force the experimental and often harmful vaccines upon the world, effectively own or have donated untold amounts of money to many of the world’s more important media outlets, he knew beforehand that he did not have to worry much about his words being widely circulated.
And so it was. Only relatively small independent news gatherers took any note of what he said.
So who was he addressing his words to and why?
He was speaking to the fellow true believers and providing them with a rhetorical model for handling the loss of faith some among their ranks are having in the face of the vaccines’ abject failure.
The key to understanding the frame game here is the clause Gates uttered right before the “but” with which he introduced his truthful words about the “vaccines” pitiful infection-blocking capabilities and short duration of effectiveness: “The vaccines have saved millions of lives.”
Those familiar with the work of cognitive linguist George Lakoff, or the activities of pollster and so-called political wordsmith Frank Luntz will know what I’m talking about.
What these two men have in common—despite their divergent political allegiances—is their belief in the extraordinary power of rhetorical framing; that is, the tendency of the human brain to subordinate the careful analysis of empirically proven details to the embrace of an overarching cognitive metaphor that appeals to their deeper, if often unstated, cultural and emotional values.
It’s the difference between, for example:
“The US invaded Iraq on false pretenses and destroyed it, killing hundreds of thousands of innocent people.”
and
“In its efforts to bring democracy to Iraq, the US made a number of tragic mistakes.”
The first states a bald empirical truth. The second obfuscates that crude reality and subordinates it to the noble vision, so cherished by Americans when contemplating their role in the world, of a country that is constantly helping people around the world to better their lives.
And with widespread imposition of mental frames like this through the media, “poof!” go all the gory, on-the-ground details, and with them more importantly, the need to actually interrogate what we did and how we might seek to repair the lives we broke.
Going back to Davos, Bill was effectively saying to his minions, “You are on a great moral crusade. We’ve had some small problems along the way, but don’t give up, because the world needs us to continue to be heroic and save more lives.”
And with that cognitive frame in place, any creeping doubts those in the audience might have about what they have done, and their future mission, disappear just like that.
We see the same gambit used when the US government inevitably links the apparent waning of the pandemic to the use of vaccines. Here, for example, is what the CDC said to CNN shortly after lifting requirement that US citizens be tested before returning home from foreign travels:
“The Covid-19 pandemic has now shifted to a new phase, due to the widespread uptake of highly effective Covid-19 vaccines, the availability of effective therapeutics, and the accrual of high rates of vaccine-and infection-induced immunity at the population level in the United States. Each of these measures has contributed to lower risk of severe disease and death across the United States.”
It’s no accident that the first factor adduced to explain the onset of happier days, the one that sets the frame for all that follows, is the “widespread uptake of highly effective Covid-19 vaccines.”
The goal here— as it was in the case of Gates at Davos—is to preserve, in the face of abundant empirical evidence to the contrary, the frame that presents the forced administration of vaccines as the great slayer of the pandemic and gifter of our vanquished freedoms, and to turn that suggestion into an established fact through constant repetition.
But, of course, neither Gates’s claim about the vaccines saving “millions of lives” nor the CDCs’ assertion that “widespread vaccine uptake” was the key reason for ending the pandemic are established facts. Far from it. Indeed, there are no scientific studies that l know of capable of authenticating either claim. But that’s just the point.
The elites that deign to rob us of our bodily sovereignty and so much more in the name of Covid, or whatever other “mortal health threat” that they choose to publicize next through their carpet-bomber control of most media, have all done their homework on the frame game and carefully tailor their communications to fit with its imperatives.
Unfortunately, most citizens are still not clued in to how it operates in their lives. Verbal details such as the ones cited above matter because they play an enormous role in establishing and maintaining what the now sadly tarnished Chomsky once brilliantly called the field of “thinkable thought” in our public discussions.
To open up that field we need to smash their frames. But to smash those frames we first need to admit they exist, and where we can go to find them.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 20:20 - Is Your Chinese Coffee Maker Spying On You?
Is Your Chinese Coffee Maker Spying On You?
American technology researchers say they’ve determined a Chinese company is collecting data on the users of its smart coffee machines. “The data is collected at the point of operation from software embedded in the coffee maker,” North Carolina-based New Kite Data Labs says in a new report.
“We present data from a Chinese coffee machine manufacturer producing smart machines that collects data on a variety of subjects including drink production, location, payment information, and other data,” the four-page report says. “The broad collection of data through devices with low levels of security and unclear data storage policies should raise concerns.“
Though the company isn’t named in the report, founder Christopher Balding told the Washington Times it’s Kalerm, a company headquartered in Jiangsu. The company sells both commercial and personal coffee machines on four continents—including North America and Europe—both under its own brand and in white label arrangements with other sellers.
A Kalerm home coffee machine (via kalerm.com) Collected data includes records of coffee sales transactions including the location, name of the registered owner, type of machine used, the time of service, the type of beverage served, payment method used on commercial machines, and various other types of data.
“China is really collecting data on really just anything and everything,” Mr. Balding told the Washington Times. “As a manufacturing hub of the world, they can put this capability in all kinds of devices that go out all over the world.”
Thus far, Balding has only determined that Kalerm has collected data from Chinese customers. However, he thinks it’s safe to assume the company is extracting the same data in the United States, Europe and elsewhere: “While we cannot say this company is collecting data on non-Chinese users, all evidence indicates their machines can and do collect data on users outside of mainland China and store the data in China.”
As Ryan Lovelace notes at the Washington Times, NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden once expressed his wariness of a smart kitchen blender, since it could reveal his location to the U.S. government.
The Chinese coffee machine case “provides evidence as to the scale of the data privacy issues as more [Internet Of Things] IOT devices are adopted by consumers and businesses,” says New Kite Data Labs. “IOT devices are widely known to suffer from widespread security shortcomings that are not generally covered by security patches.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 20:00 - The Real Deadpool: America's Drought Is Worse Than You Think
The Real Deadpool: America’s Drought Is Worse Than You Think
Authored by Chris Martenson via PeakProsperity.com,
We were foolish enough to believe we could water the entire southwestern U.S. with the Colorado River.
Nothing could go wrong.
Now it has, and tens of millions of people are staring down the barrel of real trouble.
As much as 75% of the water from Lake Mead (fed by the Colorado River) goes to agriculture…so now we have a potential food production problem.
Major cities like Las Vegas depend on that water for its citizens…now we have a potential personal survival problem for local residents.
More than 40 million people in seven states need to decide how they go on living if the rains do not return. Is anyone worried? Is there an emergency management team in place? Doesn’t seem that way if you review the local news there.
Are they prepared? No. Maybe 3% of the population has anything in place for survival. What do they do? Where do they go?
Is Kansas ready for an influx of evacuees from California? Can the East Coast handle another few million people?
Watch this important video…
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 19:40 - Royal Caribbean Asks FCC To "Expeditiously" Approve Starlink On Cruise Ships
Royal Caribbean Asks FCC To “Expeditiously” Approve Starlink On Cruise Ships
Royal Caribbean Group, the world’s second-largest cruise line operator, after Carnival Corporation & plc, requested the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) clear the way for next-generation high-speed internet on cruise ships.
Current internet speeds on ships range between 3-5Mbps for download. For reference, the average US household has a download speed of about 43Mbps. The age of remote working has pushed Royal Caribbean towards Elon Musk’s SpaceX satellite internet system Starlink to drastically improve internet speeds on ships that would make the trip enjoyable for passengers in the connected age.
Royal Caribbean Group Vice President of Operational Excellence, John Maya, sent a letter to FCC Chief Tom Sullivan to “expeditiously” approve Starlink use on cruise ships.
Maya said current bandwidth constraints on ships with legacy satellite internet providers have “resulted in negative guest experiences.” He noted the need for increased cloud-based services, drawing a need for even faster internet accessibility onboard.
“Working with SpaceX Services, Inc., we believe we have identified a true next-generation solution for our vessels that meets the rigorous technical and operational requirements commensurate with our growth plans.
“We believe our work with SpaceX, the first of its kind in the cruise industry, will set the standard for other cruise operators and will mean a leap in terms of guest experience and business operations while at sea,” he continued.
Starlink could revolutionize internet speeds on cruise ships from the current 3-5Mbps to 50–250 Mbps, allowing the possibility for passengers to remote work.
However, Starlink has yet to be approved by the FCC to operate on moving vehicles, including aircraft, trucks, and vessels.
Besides cruise ships, several airline carriers (read: here) have been discussing future service with Starlink, though rival satellite operators, including Dish Network and Viasat, have filed complaints with the FCC over Starlink’s 2,600 satellite mesh network could interfere with their satellites. Dish sent a letter to the FCC last week, claiming Starlink violates the agency’s rules by allegedly tacitly encouraging customers to use their dishes on moving vehicles.
Starlink does work on vehicles in motion, including planes, but not yet reliably
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 24, 2022
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
It’s still mindblowing in this modern era, a flight across the country or a sail around the Caribbean Sea, internet access while traveling is as slow as 1990s dial-up service. Starlink appears to be changing that.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 19:20 - Gasoline Demand Destruction Remains Elusive Despite Inflation
Gasoline Demand Destruction Remains Elusive Despite Inflation
By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com
The Russian invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices to the highest levels since 2014, but prices were already heading higher before the invasion as producers and refiners were slow to meet the post-COVID jump in demand. Soaring energy prices and inflation are prompting central banks to tighten monetary policy and raise interest rates, which will slow down economic growth. The slowdown in global economic growth now looks inevitable due to aggressive monetary tightening policies, record-high diesel and gasoline prices, and—as a result of the war in Ukraine—additional pressures on food prices and global supply chains. The embargoes on Russian oil in the West are further tightening global fuel markets, while refinery capacity worldwide is now some 3 million barrels per day (bpd) lower than just before the pandemic.
Analysts have started to warn that a period of soaring oil prices has preceded most of the recessions of the past half a century.
The odds of a recession have risen, but such an outcome is not the base-case scenario of many analysts and investment banks, who say that a recession is not inevitable.
In theory, record-high fuel prices and an economic slowdown or recession would lead to lower oil demand growth through demand destruction and a slowdown in economic activity. In practice, pent-up demand post-COVID, summer travel, and wage growth could delay demand destruction from consumers in developed economies, including the United States.
Add to this a lack of global spare capacity in both oil production and oil refining, and a new world order in oil trade flows after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and oil prices appear well-supported in the short to medium term.
Economists and various international organizations, including OPEC, have revised down economic growth expectations for this year and next, but they still expect rising oil demand to exceed pre-pandemic levels soon and no recession as a base-case scenario.
The World Bank, for example, said last week the war has magnified the slowdown in the global economy, which is entering what could become a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation, raising the risk of stagflation. The World Bank now sees global economic growth at 2.9% in 2022, significantly lower than 4.1% that was anticipated in January.
Sure, predicting the global economic and oil demand trends when there is a war in Europe for the first time since World War II is a major uncertainty in itself. But the unusual—to put it mildly—circumstances of the global oil market could result in an outcome where oil prices will not plummet even if the EU and/or the U.S. technically enter a recession.
Gasoline demand in the United States is robust despite the record-high prices, which hit a national average of $5 per gallon last week.
“Based on the demand we’re seeing, it seems high prices have not really deterred drivers,” said Andrew Gross, AAA spokesperson.
“If prices stay at or above $5, we may see people start to change their daily driving habits or lifestyle, but it hasn’t happened yet.”
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at fuel-savings app GasBuddy, said earlier this week that “Gasoline demand, while rising seasonally, is still well below previous records, but remains impressive with prices in all states at record levels. Should the rise in price finally start to slow demand’s rise, we could see some breathing room, but for now, it seems like Americans are proving resilient to record highs.”
In its latest monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC left its global oil demand growth estimate for 2022 unchanged at 3.4 million bpd over 2021 demand.
“Consumption remains robust, especially in the advanced economies, with an expected continued recovery particularly evident in the contact-intensive services sector, which includes travel and transportation activity, leisure and hospitality,” OPEC said.
The cartel, however, flagged significant downside risks, including the war in Ukraine, COVID, soaring inflation, aggravated supply chain issues, high sovereign debt levels in many regions, and expected monetary tightening by central banks in the U.S., the UK, Japan, and the Euro Zone.
“Once the summer holidays are over, it will remain to be seen to what extent inflation, i.e. rising cost of living, financial tightening and rising geopolitical uncertainty, dampen the growth dynamic towards the end of the year Inflationary pressures are likely to persist and it remains highly uncertain as to when geopolitical issues may be resolved. Nevertheless, oil demand is forecast at healthy levels in the second half of this year,” OPEC said.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 19:00 - Millennials Are Responsible For More Of The "Great Resignation" Than Gen Z, New Survey Finds
Millennials Are Responsible For More Of The “Great Resignation” Than Gen Z, New Survey Finds
When it comes to workers leaving their jobs or holding out for better terms, as they have been doing since the onset of the pandemic and since the government started issuing stimulus checks and unemployment “bonuses”, it appears that millennials are leading the charge.
Millennials are far more likely to quit their jobs than Gen Xers, a new report from Bloomberg details.
About 63% of bosses have said that the millennial generation has had the highest turnover in their companies, according to 72 executives who oversee about 400,000 total staff. The report shows that only 32% of bosses said Generation Z were to blame for the turnover. Gen X was even less, posting only a 4% figure.
Mark Williams, EMEA managing director at WorkJam, told Bloomberg that the last two years have displayed “a growing disconnect between head office and their frontline”. He added: “Employees don’t feel heard and appreciated.”
Rising turnover continues to be an issue across all industries. Smaller companies like fast food chains and restaurants are still having trouble finding staff, while even Wall Street firms and lawyers are battling to retain and recruit talent, as we have noted over the last couple years.
For example, Wells Fargo just bumped junior banker pay to $110,000. Other companies are so desperate to retain talent on Wall Street, remember we wrote back in April that some interns on Wall Street were making up to $16,000 a month.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 18:40 - Chevron Hits Back, Says Biden Trying To "Impose Obstacles" To Energy Delivery
Chevron Hits Back, Says Biden Trying To “Impose Obstacles” To Energy Delivery
Chevron has hit back at the Biden administration, claiming that their policies since January 2021 have sent a message that it aims to “impose obstacles to our industry delivering energy resources the world needs,” according to Bloomberg‘s Annmarie Hordern, citing a statement by the company.
Chevron’s response to Biden’s letter to big oil: “Unfortunately, what we have seen since January 2021 are policies that send a message that the Administration aims to impose obstacles to our industry delivering energy resources the world needs.”
— annmarie hordern (@annmarie) June 16, 2022
Chevron says they plan to boost production in the Permian basin by more than 15% this year, while its overall upstream capital investments in the US have climbed 35% in the last year.
What’s more, Chevron’s US refineries are operational, and input grew to 915k b/d on average in Q1, vs 881k b/d the same quarter a year ago.
The statement comes after the Biden administration set out on a blame campaign – telling Americans that high prices at the pump are due to corporate greed by oil companies, and not his administration’s haphazard energy policies. The new offensive included a letter to Big Oil execs threatening them with forced production quotas, windfall taxes, and/or price-caps.
The latest dust-up comes less than two weeks after Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told Bloomberg TV that there will “never be another refinery built in the US” thanks to the state of policies around the world towards fossil fuels.
In response to the Biden administration, Exxon Mobil issued a reasoned response to The White House accusations and scapegoating:
We have been in regular contact with the administration to update the President and his staff on how ExxonMobil has been investing more than any other company to develop U.S. oil and gas supplies. This includes investments in the U.S. of more than $50 billion over the past five years, resulting in an almost 50% increase in our U.S. production of oil during this period.
Globally, we’ve invested double what we’ve earned over the past five years — $118 billion on new oil and gas supplies compared to net income of $55 billion. This is a reflection of the company’s long-term growth strategy, and our commitment to continuously invest to meet society’s demand for our products.
Specific to refining capacity in the U.S., we’ve been investing through the downturn to increase refining capacity to process U.S. light crude by about 250,000 barrels per day – the equivalent of adding a new medium-sized refinery. We kept investing even during the pandemic, when we lost more than $20 billion and had to borrow more than $30 billion to maintain investment to increase capacity to be ready for post-pandemic demand.
In the short term, the U.S. government could enact measures often used in emergencies following hurricanes or other supply disruptions — such as waivers of Jones Act provisions and some fuel specifications to increase supplies.
Longer term, government can promote investment through clear and consistent policy that supports U.S. resource development, such as regular and predictable lease sales, as well as streamlined regulatory approval and support for infrastructure such as pipelines.
Meanwhile, as we noted on Wednesday, the American Petroleum Institute laid out 10 things the Biden administration can do to ease gas prices.
1. Lift Development Restrictions on Federal Lands and Waters
The Department of the Interior (DOI) should swiftly issue a 5-year program for the Outer Continental Shelf and hold mandated quarterly onshore lease sales with equitable terms. DOI should reinstate canceled sales and valid leases on federal lands and waters.
2. Designate Critical Energy Infrastructure Projects
Congress should authorize critical energy infrastructure projects to support the production, processing, and delivery of energy. These projects would be of such concern to the national interest that they would be entitled to undergo a streamlined review and permitting process not to exceed one year.
3. Fix the NEPA Permitting Process
Your administration should revise the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by establishing agency uniformity in reviews, limiting reviews to two years, and reducing bureaucratic burdens placed on project proponents in terms of size and scope of application submissions.
4. Accelerate LNG Exports and Approve Pending LNG Applications
Congress should amend the Natural Gas Act to streamline the Department of Energy (DOE) to a single approval process for all U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. DOE should approve pending LNG applications to enable the U.S. to deliver reliable energy to our allies abroad.
5. Unlock Investment and Access to Capital
The Securities and Exchange Commission should reconsider its overly burdensome and ineffective climate disclosure proposal and your administration should ensure open capital markets where access is based upon individual company merit free from artificial constraints based on government-preferred investment allocations.
6. Dismantle Supply Chain Bottlenecks
You should rescind steel tariffs that remain on imports from U.S. allies as steel is a critical component of energy production, transportation, and refining. Your administration should accelerate efforts to relieve port congestion so that equipment necessary for energy development can be delivered and installed.
7. Advance Lower Carbon Energy Tax Provisions
Congress should expand and extend Section 45Q tax credits for carbon capture, utilization, and storage development and create a new tax credit for hydrogen produced from all sources.
8. Protect Competition in the Use of Refining Technologies
Your administration should ensure that future federal agency rulemakings continue to allow U.S. refineries to use the existing critical process technologies to produce the fuels needed for global energy markets.
9. End Permitting Obstruction on Natural Gas Projects
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission should cease efforts to overstep its permitting authority under the Natural Gas Act and should adhere to traditional considerations of public needs as well as focus on direct impacts arising from the construction and operation of natural gas projects.
10. Advance the Energy Workforce of the Future
Congress and your administration should support the training and education of a diverse workforce through increased funding of work-based learning and advancement of STEM programs to nurture the skills necessary to construct and operate oil, natural gas, and other energy infrastructure.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/16/2022 – 18:25
Digest powered by RSS Digest
Saving...
