- Iran-Saudi Rapprochement Will Deal A Deathblow To The Dollar
Iran-Saudi Rapprochement Will Deal A Deathblow To The Dollar
Authored by Andrew Korybko via The Automatic Earth blog,
Eurasia’s geo-economic integration took a great leap forward as a result of the Iranian–Saudi rapprochement, which unlocks the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) trade potential with Russia and China. Its wealthy members can now tap into two series of Iranian-transiting megaprojects in one fell swoop through this deal, with the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) connecting them to Russia while the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor (CCAWAEC) will do the same vis-à-vis China.
The bloc’s de facto Saudi leader has been prioritizing a comprehensive economic reform policy known as “Vision 2030” that was introduced by Crown Prince and first-ever Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) upon his rise to power in 2015. It regrettably stumbled as a result of the disastrous Yemeni War that he’s been waging since that same year, but everything is now back on track and more promising than ever after securing $50 billion worth of investments from China last December.
The People’s Republic regards Vision 2030 as complementary to its Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) due to MBS’ focus on real-sector investments for preemptively diversifying the Saudi economy away from its presently disproportionate dependence on oil exports. His country’s location at the crossroads of Afro-Eurasia also makes investments there extremely attractive from the perspective of China’s logistical interests, hence its massive commitment to his comprehensive economic reform policy.
Without last week’s Beijing-brokered deal, China would have had to rely on maritime routes under the control of the powerful US Navy to facilitate the forthcoming explosion in bilateral real-sector trade, but now everything can be conducted much more securely via the Iranian-transiting CCAWAEC. Looking forward, there’s also a theoretical possibility of Chinese energy investments in Iran connecting the Gulf to Central Asia and thenceforth to the People’s Republic, thus fully securing its strategic interests.
That’s still a far way’s off, if it even happens at all that is, but it nevertheless can’t be ruled out. Saudi Arabia’s desire to join BRICS and the SCO, which are the most influential multipolar organizations in the world right now, could turn this scenario into a reality a lot sooner than even the most optimistic observers might have expected. All of this in and of itself will herald a revolution in geo-economic affairs, and that’s even without Saudi Arabia having yet to throw its full support behind the “petroyuan”.
Once this major oil exporter begins to sell its resources in non-dollar-denominated currencies like China’s, then the petrodollar upon which the economic-financial aspect of the US’ unipolar hegemony is predicated will be dealt a deathblow. The global systemic transition to multipolarity and the impending trifurcation of International Relations that will precede the final inevitable form of this process would unprecedentedly accelerate once this happens, thus further hastening America’s ongoing demise.
About those aforementioned processes, they were already made irreversible by the special operation that Russia was forced to commence in defense of its national security red lines in Ukraine after NATO clandestinely crossed them there and subsequently rejected Moscow’s security guarantee requests for politically resolving their resultant security dilemma. Over the past year, the New York Times was forced to admit that not only did the sanctions fail, but even the plot to “isolate” Russia did too.
These outcomes were largely the result of Russia’s example inspiring the Global South to rise up against neo-colonialism by refusing to comply with the demands placed upon them by the US-led West’s Golden Billion to unilaterally sacrifice their own interests simply to serve that de facto New Cold War bloc’s. India played the leading role in this respect due to its status as the world’s largest developing country, which gave comparatively medium- and smaller-sized ones the confidence to follow in its footsteps.
That globally significant Great Power, which sits on the South Asian end of the NSTC that transits through Iran en route to Russia, also scaled up its purchases of discounted oil from Moscow to the point where its decades-long strategic partner is nowadays its largest supplier. Of crucial significance to the present analysis, a growing number of its deals are in non-dollar-denominated currencies, which sped up de-dollarization processes to such an extent that even Reuters felt compelled to write about this.
Considering this newfound financial context, there’s no doubt that upcoming Saudi moves in support of the petroyuan that are taken in coordination with Iran and Russia would catalyze the next natural phase of de-dollarization. Russian-GCC real-sector trade that’ll be carried out via Iran across the NSTC will be conducted in national currencies and thus prepare those three for the moment when they finally decide to deal a deathblow to the petrodollar.
All in all, it’s not hyperbole to declare that the dollar’s prior dominance is done for as a result of the Iranian-Saudi rapprochement. That Beijing-brokered deal makes this outcome an inevitability unless some subversive black swan event takes place such as a US-backed coup against MBS, though that’s unlikely to happen after he successfully consolidated his power in late 2017. With this in mind, it can confidently be declared that that last week’s development will be seen in hindsight as a game-changer.
* * *
Tyler Durden
Sat, 03/18/2023 – 00:10 - Will AI Go Rogue?
Will AI Go Rogue?
Following this week’s release of GPT-4, OpenAI’s new multimodal model accepting image and text inputs rather than ChatGPT’s text-only prompts, people on social media have been marveling about the new engine’s results in performing a variety of tasks, such as creating a working website based on a simple sketch, outperforming humans in a variety of standardized tests or writing code.
But, as Statista’s Felix Richter notes, as people are only beginning to understand the capabilities (and limitations) of artificial intelligence models such as ChatGPT and now GPT-4, there’s also growing concern over what the rapid advancements in AI could ultimately lead to.
“GPT-4 is exciting and scary,” New York Times columnist Kevin Roose wrote, adding that there two kinds of risks involved in AI systems: the good ones, i.e. the ones we anticipate, plan for and try to prevent and the bad ones, i.e. the ones we cannot anticipate.
“The more time I spend with AI systems like GPT-4,” Roose writes, “the less I’m convinced that we know half of what’s coming.”
According to Ipsos Global Advisor’s 2023 Predictions, many people seem to share Roose’s reservations with regard to artificial intelligence.
You will find more infographics at Statista
According to the survey conducted among 24,471 adults in 34 countries, an average of 27 percent of respondents per country consider it likely that a rogue AI program will cause problems around the world this year, with some countries such as India, Indonesia and China seeing significantly higher degrees of AI angst.
Interestingly, the share of those expressing their concern over the potential of AI going rogue is virtually unchanged from the previous year.
Considering the very public leaps the technology has taken over the past few months, it’ll be interesting to see how this changes going forward.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 23:50 - Macgregor: The Gathering Storm
Macgregor: The Gathering Storm
Authored by Douglas Macgregor via TheAmericanConservative.com,
America’s self-inflicted trouble in Ukraine aggravates our dangerous trouble at home…
The crisis of American national power has begun. America’s economy is tipping over, and Western financial markets are quietly panicking. Imperiled by rising interest rates, mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasuries are losing their value. The market’s proverbial “vibes”—feelings, emotions, beliefs, and psychological penchants—suggest a dark turn is underway inside the American economy.
American national power is measured as much by American military capability as by economic potential and performance. The growing realization that American and European military-industrial capacity cannot keep up with Ukrainian demands for ammunition and equipment is an ominous signal to send during a proxy war that Washington insists its Ukrainian surrogate is winning.
Russian economy-of-force operations in southern Ukraine appear to have successfully ground down attacking Ukrainian forces with the minimal expenditure of Russian lives and resources. While Russia’s implementation of attrition warfare worked brilliantly, Russia mobilized its reserves of men and equipment to field a force that is several magnitudes larger and significantly more lethal than it was a year ago.
Russia’s massive arsenal of artillery systems including rockets, missiles, and drones linked to overhead surveillance platforms converted Ukrainian soldiers fighting to retain the northern edge of the Donbas into pop-up targets. How many Ukrainian soldiers have died is unknown, but one recent estimate wagers between 150,000-200,000 Ukrainians have been killed in action since the war began, while another estimates about 250,000.
Given the glaring weakness of NATO members’ ground, air, and air defense forces, an unwanted war with Russia could easily bring hundreds of thousands of Russian Troops to the Polish border, NATO’s Eastern Frontier. This is not an outcome Washington promised its European allies, but it’s now a real possibility.
In contrast to the Soviet Union’s hamfisted and ideologically driven foreign policymaking and execution, contemporary Russia has skillfully cultivated support for its cause in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. The fact that the West’s economic sanctions damaged the U.S. and European economies while turning the Russian ruble into one of the international system’s strongest currencies has hardly enhanced Washington’s global standing.
Biden’s policy of forcibly pushing NATO to Russia’s borders forged a strong commonality of security and trade interests between Moscow and Beijing that is attracting strategic partners in South Asia like India, and partners like Brazil in Latin America. The global economic implications for the emerging Russo-Chinese axis and their planned industrial revolution for some 3.9 billion people in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are profound.
In sum, Washington’s military strategy to weaken, isolate, or even destroy Russia is a colossal failure and the failure puts Washington’s proxy war with Russia on a truly dangerous path. To press on, undeterred in the face of Ukraine’s descent into oblivion, ignores three metastasizing threats: 1. Persistently high inflation and rising interest rates that signal economic weakness. (The first American bank failure since 2020 is a reminder of U.S. financial fragility.) 2. The threat to stability and prosperity inside European societies already reeling from several waves of unwanted refugees/migrants. 3. The threat of a wider European war.
Inside presidential administrations, there are always competing factions urging the president to adopt a particular course of action. Observers on the outside seldom know with certainty which faction exerts the most influence, but there are figures in the Biden administration seeking an off-ramp from involvement in Ukraine. Even Secretary of State Antony Blinken, a rabid supporter of the proxy war with Moscow, recognizes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s demand that the West help him recapture Crimea is a red line for Putin that might lead to a dramatic escalation from Moscow.
Backing down from the Biden administration’s malignant and asinine demands for a humiliating Russian withdrawal from eastern Ukraine before peace talks can convene is a step Washington refuses to take. Yet it must be taken. The higher interest rates rise, and the more Washington spends at home and abroad to prosecute the war in Ukraine, the closer American society moves toward internal political and social turmoil. These are dangerous conditions for any republic.
From all the wreckage and confusion of the last two years, there emerges one undeniable truth. Most Americans are right to be distrustful of and dissatisfied with their government. President Biden comes across as a cardboard cut-out, a stand-in for ideological fanatics in his administration, people that see executive power as the means to silence political opposition and retain permanent control of the federal government.
Americans are not fools. They know that members of Congress flagrantly trade stocks based on inside information, creating conflicts of interest that would land most citizens in jail. They also know that since 1965 Washington led them into a series of failed military interventions that severely weakened American political, economic, and military power.
Far too many Americans believe they have had no real national leadership since January 21, 2021. It is high time the Biden administration found an off-ramp designed to extricate Washington, D.C., from its proxy Ukrainian war against Russia. It will not be easy. Liberal internationalism or, in its modern guise, “moralizing globalism,” makes prudent diplomacy arduous, but now is the time. In Eastern Europe, the spring rains present both Russian and Ukrainian ground forces with a sea of mud that severely impedes movement. But the Russian High Command is preparing to ensure that when the ground dries and Russian ground forces attack, the operations will achieve an unambiguous decision, making it clear that Washington and its supporters have no chance to rescue the dying regime in Kiev. From then on, negotiations will be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 23:30 - 39% Of Americans Can't Sleep
39% Of Americans Can’t Sleep
This Friday, March 17, is World Sleep Day, an annual event that aims to raise awareness of the importance of getting a good night’s sleep.
This year’s campaign tagline is “Sleep is essential for health.”
As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to a study by the American College of Cardiology, up to 8 percent of deaths from any cause could be attributed to “poor sleep patterns”, while those with healthier sleep habits are less likely to die prematurely.
Data from Statista Consumer Insights shows that in the United States, 39 percent of respondents said they had suffered from a sleep disorder (problems falling asleep or staying asleep, insomnia, etc.) in the 12 months prior to the survey.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Italians were among the worst sleepers in the survey at 48 percent reporting a sleep disorder, while India registered a higher share of good sleepers, with only 26 percent suffering from poor sleep.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 23:10 - VDH: Are We The Byzantines?
VDH: Are We The Byzantines?
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,
When Constantinople finally fell to the Ottomans on Tuesday, May 29, 1453, the Byzantine Empire and its capital had survived for 1,000 years beyond the fall of the Western Empire at Rome.
Always outnumbered in a sea of enemies, the Byzantines’ survival had depended on its realist diplomacy of dividing its enemies, avoiding military quagmires, and ensuring constant deterrence.
Generations of self-sacrifice ensured ample investment for infrastructure. Each generation inherited and improved on singular aqueducts and cisterns, sewer systems, and the most complex and formidable city fortifications in the world.
Brilliant scientific advancement and engineering gave the empire advantages like swift galleys and flame throwers—an ancient precursor to napalm.
The law reigned supreme for nearly a millennium after the emperor Justinian codified a prior thousand years of Roman jurisprudence.
Yet this millennium-old crown jewel of the ancient world that once was home to 800,000 citizens had only 50,000 inhabitants left when it fell.
There were only 7,000 defenders on the walls to hold back a huge Turkish army of over 150,000 attackers.
The Islamic winners took over the once magical city of Constantine and renamed it Istanbul. It had been the home of the renowned Santa Sophia, the largest Christian church in the world for over 900 years. Almost immediately, this “Church of the Holy Wisdom” was converted into the then largest mosque in the Islamic world, with minarets to follow.
So what happened to the once indomitable city fortress and its empire?
Christendom had cannibalized itself. Western Catholicism and Eastern Orthodoxy fought endlessly. Westerners often hated each other more than they did their common enemy.
In the final days of Constantinople, almost no help was sent from Western Europe to the besieged city.
In fact, 250 years earlier, the Western Franks of the Fourth Crusade had detoured from the Holy Land to storm the supposedly allied Christian City of Constantinople.
Then they ransacked the city and hijacked the Byzantine Empire for a half-century. Constantinople never quite recovered.
The 14 th-century Black Plague killed tens of thousands of Byzantines and scared thousands more into moving out of the cramped city.
But the aging and dying empire battled more than the challenges of internal divisions, or an unforeseen but deadly pandemic and the empire’s disastrous responses to it.
The last generations of Byzantines had inherited a global reputation and standard of living that they themselves no longer earned.
They neglected their former civic values and fought endless battles over obscure religious texts, doctrines, and vocabulary.
They did not expand their anemic army and navy. They did not reunite their scattered Greek-speaking empire. They did not properly maintain their once life-giving walls.
Instead of earning money through their accustomed nonstop trade, they inflated their currency and were forced to melt down the city’s inherited gold and silver fixtures.
The once canny and shrewd Byzantines grew smug and naïve. Childlessness became common. Most now preferred to live outside of what had become a half-empty, often dirty, and poorly maintained city.
Meanwhile they underestimated the growing power of the Ottomans who systematically pruned away their empire. By the mid-15th century Islamic armies were ready to exploit fatal Byzantine weaknesses.
The Sultan Mehmed II grandly announced the Ottomans were now the real, the only world power. Ascendent Ottoman armies would eventually move on to the very gates of Vienna in an effort to rule all the lands of the ancient Roman empire.
We should take heed from the last generations of the Byzantines.
Nowhere is it foreordained that America has a birthright to remain the world’s preeminent civilization.
An ascendent China seems eerily similar to the Ottomans. Beijing believes that the United States is decadent, undeserving of its affluence, living beyond its means on the fumes of the past—and very soon vulnerable enough to challenge openly.
Left and Right seem to hate each other more than they do their common enemies.
Like the Byzantines, Americans gave up defending their own borders, and simply shrugged as millions overran them as they pleased.
Our once iconic downtowns, like end-stage Constantinople before the fall, are now dirty, half-deserted, dangerous, and dysfunctional.
America prints rather than makes money, as its banks totter near bankruptcy.
Americans similarly believe they are invincible without ensuring in reality that they are. Our military is more worried about being woke than deadly.
Like Byzantines, Americans have become snarky iconoclasts, more eager to tear down art and sculpture that they no longer have the talent to create.
Current woke dogma, obscure word fights, and sanctimonious cancel culture are as antithetical to the past generations of World War II as the last generation of Constantinople was to the former great eras of the emperors Constantine, Justinian, Heraclius, and Leo.
The Byzantines never woke up in time to understand what they had become.
So far neither have Americans.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 22:50 - Billionaire Bets On 'New Electric Highways' Across America
Billionaire Bets On ‘New Electric Highways’ Across America
John Arnold, a billionaire from Houston, is making a big bet on modernizing the outdated transmission infrastructure in the United States to transport electricity to areas where it is needed, including the distribution of wind and solar energy to towns and cities nationwide for the clean-energy transition.
Arnold told Bloomberg he has invested “several hundred million dollars” into Houston-based Grid United, a company he co-founded with transmission line developer Michael Skelly, to purchase land, easements, and the necessary permits for constructing electric highways that can stretch hundreds of miles.
Arnold and Skelly are planning long-haul transmission lines across multiple states on private land that might be very difficult to achieve because failing to win over every landowner could quickly scuttle the entire project.
“Arnold and Skelly are seeking to break a longstanding challenge in the industry where regulators, utilities, customers and investors are wary of projects that haven’t already secured necessary approvals,” Bloomberg said.
Adding transmission capacity to the US grid will be critical for the clean energy transition as more demand due to the electrification of the economy comes into play by the end of the decade.
The current state of the nation’s transmission is rather dire. About 70% of the transmission lines are over 25 years old, and this aging infrastructure makes delivering electricity to where it’s needed more challenging.
An expanded transmission system will allow for wind, solar, and nuclear power generation (so-called clean energy) to be delivered nationwide more efficiently and help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. President Biden has targeted 100% clean electricity by 2035.
“We are trying to break this chicken and egg cycle by acquiring the land position first.
“We hope this both compresses the timeline and makes it easier to develop a successful project, but it comes with significantly greater financial risk,” Arnold said.
Grid United has announced five transmission line projects and has others in the pipeline. Each electric highway costs $1-3 billion and can carry 1.5-3 gigawatts (each gigawatt powers about 200,000 homes).
The green transition thus far has had a damaging effect on America’s largest power grid. The swift removal of fossil fuel power generation has outpaced the addition of new capacity, leading to concerns about reliability.
Given President Biden’s goal to have most new car sales be electric within the next decade, it would be wise to upgrade the country’s transmission infrastructure. However, when it comes to upgrading power generation, there is an increasing need for next-generation nuclear energy that is on-demand power, unlike solar and wind power, which are unreliable.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 22:30 - ATF Gains Financial Information On Potential Gun Buyers For Warrantless Tracking, Documents Show
ATF Gains Financial Information On Potential Gun Buyers For Warrantless Tracking, Documents Show
Authored by Emily Miller via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The federal government has been using Americans’ income and gun purchases to conduct warrantless tracking and deny Second Amendment rights. Agents from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) gave salary estimates to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) as the reason to have people’s firearms purchases monitored.
A person holds a gun in a file image. (Scott Olson/Getty Images) Erich Pratt, senior vice president of Gun Owners of America (GOA), told The Epoch Times that the ATF’s activities “monitoring innocent people” is a serious problem. “Congress needs to rein in this rogue agency by either exercising oversight over it or abolishing the unconstitutional agency altogether,” said Pratt.
These revelations come from new documents, viewed by The Epoch Times which it received from its Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit. The latest production from the FOIA has hundreds of pages—many redacted—showing ATF agents requesting warrantless surveillance by the FBI for lawful reasons such as low salaries, past firearm purchases, and sending “bizarre” messages.
The Epoch Times exclusively reported in January about the FBI’s secret monitoring service that tracks people by the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) for gun purchases for mere “potential violations of law.”
Too Poor to Buy Guns
According to the documents, a man in Arizona was put into the NICS’s daily monitoring because he has a “reported income” of only $2,839. The ATF agent wrote, “In my experience, someone with this amount of income would not be able to afford 20 firearms.”
An Asian man in Texas was put on the manual background check because the ATF said he has “no work history” which “could possibly indicate” that he is “straw purchasing.”
A special agent in Kansas emailed ATF’s liaison at the NICS to flag two purchasers for “potential trafficking.” The agent wrote: “My targets are purchasing an abundance of firearms without a license or known financial means to obtain the product.”
The FBI’s NICS expert instructed the agent in Kansas on what to include to ensure approval for tracking the suspects. “I would suggest covering the lack of income versus expenditures and also if there is substantial make/model duplication,” wrote the FBI. The ATF agent emailed back with the incomes for each man, acquired by the Kansas Department of Labor.
All the cases in the documents are related to the ATF investigating dealing firearms without a license and straw purchasing, which is buying guns for people prohibited from owning a firearm.
Tracking Income
Gun rights activists say federal law enforcement is missing the mark.
“The poor usually live in areas with the most crime and thus have a strong need to arm themselves heavily,” Pratt said. “So targeting the indigent is simply another avenue for gun grabbers to implement a backdoor gun ban.”
ATF headquarters will not disclose how it acquired the other suspects’ incomes, employment information, and past gun purchases found in the FOIA forms.
“We are unable to discuss specific techniques utilized in criminal investigations,” ATF spokesman Erik Longnecker told The Epoch Times. “ATF utilizes a multitude of legal means in our criminal investigations to protect our communities from violent gun crime.”
Longnecker referred The Epoch Times to the National Tracing Center website for information about “several overt programs such as multiple sales and demand letters that can be helpful in identifying illegal firearms trafficking.”
Buying Too Many Guns
A black man in Florida was monitored daily by the FBI for at least 90 days in 2020 because an ATF agent wrote: “Based on my training and experience, I have not seen a legal firearms purchaser purchase approximately 30 firearms in a 120-day window for their personal collection.”
Read more here…
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 22:10 - White House Rejects Ceasefire In Ukraine As China Mediation Intensifies
White House Rejects Ceasefire In Ukraine As China Mediation Intensifies
The White House is already condemning any possible China-brokered peace plan initiative related to Ukraine before it even gets off the ground. Following Beijing confirming on Friday that Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Moscow on Monday through Wednesday to hold talks with President Vladimir Putin, the Biden administration is expressing concern and alarm over a potentially ‘bad deal’ for Ukraine.
White House national security spokesman John Kirby warned that any unconditional ceasefire would only benefit Putin and his forces as this point. This after it’s also been revealed that Xi is expected to hold a phone call with Ukraine’s Zelensky related to China’s 12-point peace plan. “A cease-fire now is… effectively the ratification of Russian conquest,” Kirby said. “And of course, it would be another continued violation of the U.N. Charter.”
Image source: The Hill/Greg Nash The US is worried that China’s diplomatic intervention and peace plan could result in significant territorial concessions:
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said Friday that an unconditional cease-fire halting Russia’s offensive in Ukraine would legitimize Moscow’s hold on an estimated 17 percent of Ukrainian territory that was taken by force.
This is chiefly in the east, namely the Donbas region, where Russia has been making gains of late and is poised to take the strategic city of Bakhmut.
But Kirby’s preemptively and outright rejecting any possible ceasefire is at odds with prior repeat US statements that it is solely Zelensky’s decision to make. The White House has lately really promoted the idea that it is not in the background making decisions for Kyiv, but that it’s the Zelensky administration exercising its own sovereign choices concerning war strategy.
But in this instance of Washington trying to slam the door on Chinese-mediated peace, clearly it puts pressure on Zelensky to do the same.
The US may also be alarmed at how open Ukraine appears to be in dealing with China. The Hill notes of the latest positive interaction between China and Ukraine:
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Thursday said he spoke with China’s State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang, where the two discussed “the significance of the principle of territorial integrity” and underscored the importance of Zelensky’s “Peace Formula” to end Russia’s war, which in part calls for Russia to withdraw its troops from all the territory it occupies in Ukraine.
But from the moment it was unveiled, the US alleged cynical motives behind Beijing’s peace efforts, despite Zelensky hinting he is open to deepened discussion with Chinese leadership.
The Biden administration’s massive support for Ukraine is not cost-free. One of the biggest geopolitical outcomes has been stronger ties between Russia and China not to mention Iran. https://t.co/nzIk89OGaX
— Max Abrahms (@MaxAbrahms) March 17, 2023
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Kirby in his fresh remarks said that Moscow will use any possible ceasefire to solidify gains. Then Russian forces will “basically be free to use that ceasefire to further entrench its positions in Ukraine,” he stated.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 21:50 - Microsoft Cuts AI Ethics Team As It Invests Billions More Into AI Technology, Report Says
Microsoft Cuts AI Ethics Team As It Invests Billions More Into AI Technology, Report Says
Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The last remaining members of an ethics and society team within Microsoft’s artificial intelligence (AI) department didn’t survive a recent round of mass layoffs, according to a report.
Screens displaying the logos of Microsoft and ChatGPT, a conversational artificial intelligence application software developed by OpenAI. (Lionel Bonaventure/AFP via Getty Images) The change comes as Microsoft signs a “multi-year, multi-billion-dollar investment” deal with OpenAI, the startup behind AI-powered image and text generators like DALL-E and ChatGPT, and upgrades its Bing search engine and Edge internet browser to incorporate a “new, next-generation OpenAI large language model that is more powerful than ChatGPT.”
The team, as reported by tech news site Platformer, was tasked to make sure Microsoft’s ethical standards regarding AI were actually reflected in product designs. The team was also reportedly working to identify potential risks posed by integrating OpenAI’s technology into a range of Microsoft products.
The team was at its peak size of 30 members in 2020, according to the report. Following a reorganization in October 2022, however, only about seven people remained. Microsoft’s corporate vice president of AI, John Montgomery, told Platformer that there was great pressure from chief technology officer Kevin Scott and chief executive Satya Nadella, who wanted to get “the most recent OpenAI models” into customers’ hands as quickly as possible.
Microsoft still maintains its Office of Responsible AI, which focuses on creating company-wide rules and principles to guide AI development. But employees told Platformer that the ethics and society team was playing a key role in bridging the gap between principles and products.
Ai-Da Robot, the world’s first ultra-realistic humanoid robot artist, appears at a photo call in a committee room in the House of Lords in London on Oct. 11, 2022. (Rob Pinney/Getty Images) Microsoft didn’t respond to a request for comment, but it told Platformer that with the ethics team gone, the overall amount of work dedicated to responsibly has increased.
Read more here…
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 21:30 - Deloitte's Beijing Office Suspended By China Over 'Deficiencies' In Huarong Audit
Deloitte’s Beijing Office Suspended By China Over ‘Deficiencies’ In Huarong Audit
The Chinese government suspended operations at the western-linked auditor Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd.’s Beijing office for three months after finding “deficiencies” in its auditing work for China Huarong Asset Management.
According to Bloomberg, the Chinese finance ministry carried out a thorough assessment of Deloitte’s auditing of bad debt manager Huarong. This evaluation included on-site inspections, personnel interviews, a complete review of documentation, and even a hearing.
The ministry found the big four accounting firm had “serious audit deficiencies” in its work with Huarong between 2014 and 2019.
When Huarong delayed the release of its annual report in 2021, it triggered a credit crisis that rippled through Asian markets. The firm eventually revealed a staggering loss for the previous year, necessitating a state-backed bailout from Beijing.
Deloitte’s Beijing branch was fined 212 million yuan ($30.8 million) for not properly reviewing Huarong’s assets, overlooking compliance approvals on significant investments, and failing to offer a sense of skepticism during the auditing work on the bad debt manager. The auditors missed several risk control failures and distortions in Huarong’s books.
The suspension and fine of Deloitte’s Beijing office come one month after Chinese authorities reportedly instructed state-owned companies to phase out contracts with western-linked auditors, such as Deloitte, KPMG, EY, and PwC.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 21:10 - 60 Percent Of Americans Say China A Bigger Threat Than Russia: Poll
60 Percent Of Americans Say China A Bigger Threat Than Russia: Poll
Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
About 60 percent of Americans surveyed in a new Quinnipiac University Poll have listed China as a bigger threat to the United States over Russia.
The Chinese regime’s flags and American flags are displayed in a company in Beijing on Aug. 16, 2017. (Wang Zhao/AFP via Getty Images) The poll, which was conducted between March 9–13, asked 1,795 American adults about their views on a range of political topics. One question asked respondents to identify who they consider the greatest threat to the United States among the countries of China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba.
A majority of 61 percent viewed China as the biggest threat to the United States, while 22 percent said Russia. Eight percent of respondents said North Korea poses the biggest threat and two percent said Iran. Less than a percent of respondents identified Venezuela or Cuba as the top threat, while three percent of respondents volunteered an unlisted option and four percent said they did not know.
China was the top concern for respondents across party lines. 79 percent of Republicans, 64 percent of independents, and 47 percent of Democrats selected China as the leading threat to the United States.
By contrast, 38 percent of Democrats, 18 percent of independents, and 10 percent of Republicans saw Russia as the leading threat.
The Quinnipiac findings are similar to those from a recent Gallup poll, which showed that 50 percent of U.S. respondents considered China the biggest threat to the United States, compared to 32 percent who said that Russia was the bigger threat. That Gallup poll found even broader negative views of China, with more than eight in ten Americans expressing unfavorable views of the country.
China and TikTok
U.S. officials have shared increased concerns over China and its ruling communist party in recent months.
In February, U.S. officials decried the transit of a Chinese high-altitude balloon over U.S. airspace, alleging the balloon was one of several recent efforts by the Chinese government to spy on the United States.
U.S. officials have pointed to the popular social media app TikTok as another avenue for Chinese government actors to surveil Americans. TikTok is owned by a Chinese parent company called ByteDance.
Multiple reports have indicated that TikTok and ByteDance employees can and have accessed U.S. user data from China.
FBI Director Christopher Wray has also warned that TikTok could be used to conduct influence operations against U.S. citizens, manipulating users’ content to promote views favorable to the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
The new Quinnipiac University poll found that a 49 percent plurality of U.S. respondents preferred banning the app in the United States, while 42 percent opposed a ban. Nine percent said they don’t know whether either way where they stand on a ban.
Views on the proposed TikTok ban differed with respondents political views: 64 percent of Republicans and 50 percent of independents said they support a ban on TikTok. A 51 percent majority of Democrats opposed a ban on the app, while 39 percent supported said they support a ban.
Read more here…
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 20:50 - St. Patrick's Day: 31 Million Americans Claim Irish Ancestry
St. Patrick’s Day: 31 Million Americans Claim Irish Ancestry
U.S. President Joe Biden is welcoming Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar to the White House today as part of a Saint Patrick’s Day tradition, celebrating the two countries’ strong ties.
As well as taking part in several St. Patrick’s Day events together, including the taoiseach (prime minister) gifting the U.S president a bowl of shamrock, the two leaders are expected to discuss Biden’s upcoming trip to Ireland and Northern Ireland on the 25th anniversary of the U.S.-brokered Good Friday Agreement.
The United States and Ireland have long been close allies and economic partners, with a large Irish diaspora living in the U.S.
In fact, the first ever parade on Saint Patrick’s Day was actually held in the U.S., taking place in New York City in 1762. In 1991, Congress even designated March as Irish-American Heritage Month.
But how many U.S. citizens can actually claim Irish ancestry?
You will find more infographics at Statista
According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, some 31.5 million Americans claimed Irish ancestry in 2021, accounting for 9.5 percent of the population. German ancestry is ahead, however, with 42.2 million U.S. citizens claiming ancestral links with Europe’s economic powerhouse. In second place comes English ancestry, with a further 31.8 million Americans having historical familial ties with the country.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 20:30 - Military Recruitment Flatlines As American 'Propensity To Serve' Fades
Military Recruitment Flatlines As American ‘Propensity To Serve’ Fades
Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The United States military is facing recruitment shortfalls with only the Marine Corps and the newly created Space Force meeting 2022 enlistment quotas, an issue that could undermine the Pentagon’s readiness to address the “pacing challenges” posed by the People’s Republic of China and Russia.
The Times Square military recruiting station displays insignia for each military branch in New York. (Bebeto Matthews/AP Photo) The U.S. Army in 2022 missed its recruiting goal by 15,000 active-duty soldiers, or 25 percent of its target, leaving the nation’s largest military force 7 percent smaller than it was two years ago.
The U.S. Navy came within several dozen of its 2022 enlistment goal but only after lowering its recruiting quota, increasing its oldest enlistment age from 39 to 41, and lowering other standards.
Recruits run sprints at U.S. Navy boot camp in Great Lakes, Ill. (Spencer Fling/U.S. Navy) The U.S. Air Force met its 2022 recruiting goal but, according to Alex Wagner, assistant secretary of the Air Force for Manpower and Reserve Affairs, in 2023 it anticipates it “will miss its recruiting goal for the first since 1999.”
Wagner was among the eight officials representing the individual military branches and the Department of Defense (DOD) to testify on March 15 before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee’s Personnel Subcommittee about issues confronting the military’s 2.1 million active-duty members, the DOD’s 700,000 civilian employees, and their families.
“Today the military faces a recruiting crisis,” Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said, noting in 2023 it is expected that “the Army and Navy will miss the mark by 10,000 each,” fostering an “unprecedented” challenge that will be the nine-member sub-panels “top priority to fix” in the coming two years.
Shrinking Recruit Pool
DOD and service branch officials said the shortfalls are partly attributable to endemic obesity, educational deficiencies, mental health problems, and criminal backgrounds that disqualify more than three-quarters of the nation’s service-eligible population from serving in the military.
Officials also cited a “historically strong” job market, salaries, housing, access to health care, and the demands of active duty service among factors contributing to the recruitment shortfalls.
Taking care of military families and individual service members’ needs is “just as much a readiness issue” as having the weapons and equipment to fight, Chair Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said.
Warren cited plans with the Biden administration’s $886.3 billion Fiscal Year 2024 (FY24) budget request to enhance access to health care, child care, and upgrade military family housing all part of a campaign to boost recruitment.
Among DOD initiatives to improve recruiting is a proposed $40 million marketing campaign that will complement and amplify each of the service branch’s recruitment programs.
“We need to do a better job of telling our story and marketing ourselves,” Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness Henry Cisneros told the panel, noting it was the largest marketing request of this type ever made by the Pentagon separately from the individual service branches.
A drill instructor corrects recruits on their deficiencies at Marine Corps Recruit Depot Parris Island, S.C., Nov. 16, 2019. (Lance Cpl. Godfrey Ampong/U.S. Marine Corps) Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) said her proposed “Enlist Act” would expand recruiting to include childhood arrivals “and other longtime residents who can pass background checks and meet standards” as one way to boost enlistments.
Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) asked why the Pentagon does not allow service members to work with organizations such as Our Community Salutes.
Budd also asked Cisneros if the defense department is reaching out to those booted from the military for not complying with the Pentagon’s COVID vaccine mandate.
“That would be a question that would be better answered by the services,” he said, although the Pentagon has made it clear that service members can “apply for an accommodation” and that the services have told members there is a process they can apply to be exempted.
Read more here…
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 20:10 - Arrest Warrant Issued For President Putin By Hague-Based ICC
Arrest Warrant Issued For President Putin By Hague-Based ICC
As part of the West’s attempt to ramp up the pressure on President Vladimir Putin, the International Criminal Court (ICC) on Friday issued an arrest warrant for the Russian leader. It’s a largely symbolic step, given detaining Putin remains entirely unenforceable, but is enough to create a firestorm of hyped and breathless headlines.
Another arrest warrant for a top official was announced simultaneously for Russia’s commissioner for children’s rights Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova. The warrants for both Putin and Lvova-Belova allege severe human rights violations against children, and mark the first formal international charges brought by the ICC against Moscow.
Street scene in Barcelona, via AFP The ICC said in a statement that Putin “is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation.”
According to Axios, it stems from allegations that “Russia systematically relocated at least 6,000 children from Ukraine to Russia since the start of the war” – based on findings by a group called Conflict Observatory and their report published in February.
“Many of the children, who were taken to camps or other facilities, engaged in pro-Russia reeducation efforts, per the report,” Axios details. “Some of the facilities were used for foster care or adoption in Russia and Crimea.”
But it remains that the warrants are largely merely symbolic. “The ICC is doing its part of work as a court of law,” ICC court president Piotr Hofmanski said. “The judges issued arrest warrants. The execution depends on international cooperation.”
Given the ICC doesn’t have a police force, any actual attempt to detain Putin would be the decision of a government, so needless to say it could not possibly be enforced. However, it does complicate Putin’s ability to travel to European or other capitals which cooperate with the ICC. This also means it could hinder peace efforts in the scenario Putin might choose to personally engage in negotiations or diplomacy in a European city.
Statement by Prosecutor #KarimAAKhanKC on the issuance of arrest warrants against President Vladimir Putin and Ms Maria Lvova-Belova
Read more ⤵️ https://t.co/qGNPQrBV5O #Ukraine— Int’l Criminal Court (@IntlCrimCourt) March 17, 2023
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The Kremlin responded quickly to the ICC warrants, with Dmitry Peskov stressing that Russia doesn’t recognize the international court, calling its decisions “legally void.” He blasted the attempt to go after the recognized head of state of Russia as “outrageous and unacceptable.”
Recent debate at the Hague-based ICC ahead of Friday’s announcement certainly put Washington in an awkward position, with Axios pointing out that “The New York Times reported earlier this month that the Pentagon was blocking the Biden administration from sharing U.S. intelligence with the ICC about Russian war crimes in Ukraine for fear that it could set a precedent for prosecuting Americans.”
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 19:50 - Japan, South Korea Are Rebuilding Military Ties, With US Backing
Japan, South Korea Are Rebuilding Military Ties, With US Backing
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Japan on Thursday as Tokyo and Seoul seek to thaw relations, an initiative backed by the US as it seeks to rally its allies in the region against China.
According to Nikkei Asia, the two leaders agreed to bolster cooperation against North Korea and to resume a working-level bilateral security dialogue that has been on a five-year hiatus. Yoon announced the “normalization” of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), a pact that allows the two countries to share military intelligence.
Via Reuters In 2019, Yoon’s predecessor, Moon Jae-in, said Seoul would not be renewing the GSOMIA in response to new export controls Japan imposed on South Korea. The two countries also announced a trade agreement on Thursday that will lift Japanese export controls.
The GSOMIA allows the two countries to share information on North Korean missile tests. “I believe the two countries should be able to share information on North Korea’s nuclear missile launches and trajectories, and respond to them,” Yoon said at a press conference following his meeting with Kishida.
The meeting between Yoon and Kishida marked the first visit between Japanese and South Korean leaders since 2012. “From now on, I would like to open a new chapter in Japan-South Korea relations through frequent visits by both sides that are not tied down by formality,” Kishida said.
Ties between South Korea and Japan have been strained over the Japanese imperial rule of Korea from 1910 to 1945. The two countries have been working on an agreement to settle a dispute over Korean slave labor during the occupation, although South Korea’s opposition and many others in the country are not happy with a proposal Yoon accepted from Japan.
Rahm Emanuel, the US ambassador to Japan, welcomed the warming of ties and said North Korea and China won’t be happy about the progress. “Our working together not only on the political front, but on the strategic front, on the deterrence front, is what North Korea is scared about. It’s also what China doesn’t want to see happen,” he told CNN.
Japan plans to lift restrictions on exports of key semiconductor materials to South Korea, in a move toward ending a feud that has spanned several years between the two tech powerhouses https://t.co/FXQqFGqg5E
— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) March 16, 2023
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US military leaders expect any future war with China also to involve action from North Korea and want to coordinate more with the Japanese and South Korean militaries. Kishida recently announced Japan is doubling its military budget over the next five years as part of a military buildup specifically aimed at China.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 19:30 - "The Fed Is Broke" – Gundlach Likes Gold, Fears "Expanding Wars" Most
“The Fed Is Broke” – Gundlach Likes Gold, Fears “Expanding Wars” Most
In the past week, DoubleLine CEO and founder Jeffrey Gundlach has had a lot to say as the US banking system collapse and bailout enjoins Europe’s banking crisis leaving central banks’ inflation-fighting plans in question.
The ECB was clear – hiking 50bps and FTW! – but what will The Fed do?
The market has dovishly adjusted to the banking crisis overhang… (pricing in a peak in rate in May with just one 25bps hike and then cuts for the rest of the year)
…and the new ‘bond king’ suggests that Powell hikes continue to keep up its inflation-fighting efforts, due to credibility concerns.
“This is really throwing a wrench in [Fed Chair] Jay Powell’s game plan,” Gundlach said.
“I wouldn’t do it myself. But what do you do in the context of all this messaging that has happened over the past six months, and then something happens that you think you’ve solved.”
Ironically adding that, The Fed is doing this with one hand at the same time as enabling inflationary policy with the BTFP on the other:
“I think that the inflationary policy is back in play with the Federal Reserve … putting money into the system through this lending program.” Gundlach said.
But, in a Twitter Spaces audio chat Thursday with Jennifer Ablan, editor-in-chief of Pensions & Investments, Gundlach warns of an imminent recession – within the next four months – as the yield-curve suddenly steepens…
“In all the past recessions going back for decades, the yield curve starts de-inverting a few months before the recession,” adding that “I think it’s within four months at the most. Almost every indicator is flipped into high probability. The only one that hasn’t is the unemployment rate.”
But,, the DoubleLine founder pointed out that at 3.6%, the unemployment rate just crossed back above its 12-month moving average…
Which, historically has been “a reliable indicator you’re on the doorstep” of recession.
Gundlach called Silicon Valley Bank’s failure “a rate policy collision with stupid accounting rules” for banks, but warned of The Fed’s reaction was inflationary and antithetical to their inflation-fighting stance.
“By bailing out depositors at SVB, that’s essentially a quantitative easing” by the Fed, he said.
“Making those depositors whole is about the same as a month or two of reversing quantitative tightening.”
The stock market is currently in a bear market, he said, and he would sell into any rallies.
Gundlach predicts the S&P 500 index will trade down to 3,200 and reminded investors that “the goal for 2023 is survival, and losing as little money as possible.”
What worries the bond king the most may surprise some – spreading geopolitical conflicts:
“I think expanding wars worries me the most.”
But he was clear on the biggest financial risk:
“The Fed is broke. The Fed’s balance sheet is negative $1.1 trillion. There’s nothing they can do to fight any problems except for printing money.
They have nothing left. The Fed used to send money to Treasury. Now Treasury sends money to the Fed.
We’re at this point in time where we don’t have any road left to kick the can on our mismanagement of finances and monetary policy.”
His suggestion – buy gold.
If government spending continues, he predicts “the dollar will collapse under the weight of the deficit.”
“I think gold is a good long-term hold, gold and other real assets with true value, such as land, gold and collectibles.”
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 18:55 - A Haunting Anniversary – '15 Days To Slow The Spread'
A Haunting Anniversary – ’15 Days To Slow The Spread’
Authored by Julie Kelly via AmGreatness.com,
As we approach the third anniversary of “15 Days to Slow the Spread” there remains no accountability and no assurances that it couldn’t happen again…
Three years ago this week, our vibrant, noisy country went silent.
Or, I should say, it was silenced. Businesses didn’t shutter due to a sudden economic crash—although one quickly followed—and highways weren’t empty due to a global fuel shortage. Schools didn’t close because of a nationwide teacher’s strike; parents and children didn’t hunker down in separate rooms of the same house over a nasty family fight.
No, it was a man-made disaster the likes of which can only be compared to war. On March 16, 2020, President Donald Trump and his Coronavirus Task Force announced the infamous “15 Days to Slow the Spread.” For the first time in modern history, the free world, or so it was considered at the time, resorted to medieval methods to stop the unstoppable transmission of a novel contagion. Had there been enough time to farm a massive supply of leeches, the nation’s top government officials probably would have recommended bloodletting, too.
“The new recommendations are simple to follow but will have a resounding impact on public health,” the official White House announcement read.
“While the President leads a nationwide response, bringing together government resources and private-sector ingenuity, every American can help slow the virus’ spread and keep our most high-risk populations safe.”
It is a day, and a decision, that will live in infamy. Trump, of course, is not solely responsible; Drs. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx shrewdly won the affection and trust of the American people early on, so any move contrary to their counsel would have created an even bigger crisis in the White House. Prior to the official declaration, Republican governors warned shut downs were imminent. Congressional Republicans with a few exceptions—Rep. Tom Massie (R-Ky.) comes to mind—grasped the devastating impact on the most vulnerable, especially children, the poor, and the elderly. The national news media amplified the untested “mitigation” approach without a shred of skepticism.
Mario Tama/Getty Images
“We’re all in this together,” Hollywood insisted. Health care workers made up dances in between posting vicious condemnations aimed at any American who dared to question the scientific basis of indefinite home confinement. Doctors and nurses, in perhaps the cruelest act of all, forced patients to die alone as their loved ones stood helplessly nearby, but all too far away.
Public health “experts” became international celebrities simply by making up data and forecasting unrealized predictions of doom and death. Local police officers ran joggers off public beaches.
Carlos Avila Gonzalez/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images
And it wasn’t just the professional class responsible for the dystopian hellscape.
Frustrated housewives chased down children who braved hazard-taped neighborhood playgrounds. When mask madness ensued, many of our countrymen built a mask militia of sorts, berating nonusers, or even those wearing their masks “improperly,” in public spaces. Indignant scolds posted their tirades on social media.
The list goes on and on. And as the pseudoscientific underpinnings—from the “natural” origins of the virus, to the official pronouncements on the effectiveness of social distancing, mask mandates, and vaccine efficacy—unravels under the weight of evidence, the collateral damage is gradually coming to light.
American teens remain trapped in an unprecedented mental health crisis, traumatized by months—and in some states, more than a year—of suffering social isolation, virus panic, and lost rites of passage leaving scars for a lifetime. A major study published in January detailed the global scale of the catastrophe.
“The effect of limited face-to-face instruction is compounded by the pandemic’s consequences for children’s out-of-school learning environment, as well as their mental and physical health,” according to a meta-analysis that reviewed more than two years of data related to school shutdowns.
“Lockdowns have restricted children’s movement and their ability to play, meet other children and engage in extra-curricular activities. Children’s wellbeing and family relationships have also suffered due to economic uncertainties and conflicting demands of work, care and learning. These negative consequences can be expected to be most pronounced for children from low socio-economic family backgrounds, exacerbating pre-existing educational inequalities.”
The full toll on children and families will likely never be known. Young adults attempt to navigate a new normal as “working remotely” persists in the white collar world. How can one make new friends or meet a prospective spouse when confined to a studio apartment in Lincoln Park working on accounting spreadsheets four days a week? (A recent college graduate told me how he was so excited during his first few weeks on the job to go into the office and finally meet his virtual co-workers that he picked up donuts to share. When he arrived, no one was there. So he gave the donuts to a homeless man outside the building.)
Life in most places, on the surface, appears to have returned to normal. Casual conversations often invoke “before COVID” to describe a time before March 2020. But in many respects, the “slow the spread” legacy lives. More than 110,000 restaurants closed permanently; it’s unclear how many have reopened. The service industry operates in constant fear history will repeat itself since no politician or government official has yet to suffer any repercussions for imposing such destructive—and futile—policies.
This applies to leaders of both parties. For proof, look no further than the resounding reelection victories of Governors Gretchen Whitmer (D-Mich.) and Mike DeWine (R-Ohio). (Safely reelected and considered a 2024 presidential prospect, should Biden choose not to run, Whitmer recently admitted maybe her harsh policies were “a little more than we needed to do.”)
And consider, too, the level of hero worship that still exists for Fauci in many quarters.
The issue promises to be a point of contention during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. No current candidate has clean hands; in fact, former Vice President Mike Pence, who led the Coronavirus Task Force, arguably is most culpable. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, undoubtedly one of the first leaders to recognize the futility and damage caused by the lockdowns, nonetheless instituted lockdown measures, supported mask use, and pushed vaccines.
In some ways, it’s hard to understand how this all happened.
None of it would have been possible but for the immediate and unskeptical submission of the overwhelming majority of Americans. Could it happen again? Sadly, the answer is yes.
Never again? We’ll see.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 18:50 - Xi To Arrive In Moscow Monday, Ukraine War 'Core Part' Of Talks With Putin
Xi To Arrive In Moscow Monday, Ukraine War ‘Core Part’ Of Talks With Putin
The Chinese Foreign Ministry has confirmed in a statement on its website that President Xi Jinping’s much anticipated state visit to Russia will be held from March 20-22, marking the first such in-person visit with President Putin since the Ukraine war started in February 2022.
The Kremlin at the same time confirmed of the trip that “An exchange of views is also planned in the context of deepening Russian-Chinese cooperation in the international arena,” and that, “A number of important bilateral documents will be signed.”
Via Reuters Russia has further said the two leaders will discuss “strategic cooperation” – following early last year’s declaration of Beijing and Moscow’s “no-limits partnership”.
The new Friday Beijing statement also said the war in Ukraine will be top priority, also after acknowledging that a Xi-Zelensky phone call will happen related to the Moscow visit:
China’s Foreign Ministry said the visit will take place from Monday to Wednesday at the invitation of Putin and confirmed that the war in Ukraine would be a core part of the talks.
“China’s proposition boils down to one sentence, which is to urge peace and promote talks,” foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said.
And more on the few details made known thus far, to kick off Monday:
The two leaders will start Monday with a one-on-one followed by an “informal lunch,” with negotiations set to take place Tuesday, according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.
This will be Xi’s first important trip abroad after the 69-year old earlier this month became the longest-serving head of state that Communist China has ever seen going back to 1949, and comes after he already broke precedent in gaining a third term as head of the Chinese Communist party last fall.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had been among the first world leaders to congratulate Xi on his third term, and hailed the two countries’ strategic partnership. “Dear friend, please accept sincere congratulations on the occasion of your reelection,” Putin said in a statement published by the Kremlin. “Russia highly values your personal contribution toward the strengthening of ties … and strategic cooperation between our nations,” he had said a week ago.
“I am certain that working together, we will ensure the development of fruitful Russian-Chinese cooperation in all sorts of different areas,” Putin wrote. “We will continue to coordinate joint work on the most important regional and international issues.”
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 18:30 - The Fed Just Hijacked American Democracy
The Fed Just Hijacked American Democracy
Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,
You know the old joke – “Predictions are hard… especially about the future.”
And it’s true, nobody has a crystal ball.
But it’s astonishing to see just how horribly wrong the people in charge can be in their predictions, especially about the very near future.
You probably remember Joe Biden famously insisted in the summer of 2021 that the Taliban was “highly unlikely” to take over Afghanistan.
Boy did he turn out to be wrong.
Only a few weeks later, the Taliban was in control of the entire country… and the world watched in utter astonishment as US military helicopters evacuated embassy personnel from Kabul in one of the most shameful episodes in modern American history.
Not to be outdone, it appears that the Federal Reserve has just had its own Afghanistan moment.
It was only Tuesday of last week that the Fed Chairman testified before a committee of concerned senators who thought the Fed may be tightening monetary policy (i.e. raising interest rates) too quickly.
This was a valid concern; rapid interest rate hikes DO create a LOT of risks. And one of those risks is that asset prices– especially bond prices– plummet in value.
This risk is particularly problematic for banks because they tend to invest their customer deposits in bonds.
In fact, now that the Fed has tightened its monetary policy so quickly, banks across the US have more than $600 billion in unrealized losses on their bond portfolios. This is a pretty major problem… because that $600 billion is ultimately YOUR money.
And it’s not like the Fed doesn’t have access to this information; after all, the Fed supervises nearly EVERY bank in the US financial system.
And yet last week the Fed Chairman completely rejected this risk, telling worried senators flat out that “nothing about the data suggests to me that we’ve tightened too much. . .”
In other words, he believed the Fed’s rapid interest rate hikes posed ZERO risk.
Talk about a terrible prediction; just THREE DAYS LATER, one of the largest banks in the US imploded, multiple bank runs unfolded across the country, the bond market fell into turmoil, and the Fed had to essentially guarantee the entire US banking system in order to restore confidence. (More on that in a moment.)
The mental image of bank runs in America, just days after the Chairman dismissed any risk, is the Fed’s equivalent of the Afghanistan debacle. It’s shameful.
But what’s REALLY concerning is the Fed’s response to this panic– their de facto guarantee of the entire US banking system. Because ultimately they just put YOU on the hook for the potential bond losses of every bank in America. I’ll explain–
After Silicon Valley Bank went bust, the FDIC announced that they will guarantee ALL deposits at the bank.
This is a departure from the FDIC’s normal pledge to guarantee deposits of up to $250,000, and their decision drew a lot of ire from pundits and politicians across the ideological spectrum. Many people concluded that the FDIC’s pledge was tantamount to a “taxpayer-funded bailout.”
But that assessment is wrong. Anyone who is intellectually honest and well-informed will easily understand that the FDIC is not funded by taxpayers. The FDIC is funded by charging fees to its member banks.
So when the FDIC decided to guarantee every depositor at Silicon Valley Bank, including those with balances exceeding $250,000, it means they’re bailing out SVB’s wealthy customers at the expense of big Wall Street banks.
But most people seem to have missed the real story… because the ACTUAL bailout is coming from the Fed, not the FDIC.
Despite the Chairman’s terrible prediction in front of the Senate Banking Committee last week, the Fed now seems keenly aware of the risks in the US banking system. They realize that there are LOTS of other banks that are sitting on massive unrealized losses, just like SVB.
So in order to prevent these banks from going under, the Fed invented a new facility they’re calling the “Bank Term Funding Program”, or BTFP.
But the BTFP is really just an extraordinary lie designed to make you think that the banking system is safe. They might as well have called it, “Believe This Fiction, People”, and I’ll show you why.
Whenever people borrow money from banks, we normally have to provide some sort of collateral. Banks make home equity loans using real estate as collateral. They make car loans where the car is collateral. Manufacturing businesses borrow money using factory equipment as collateral.
Well, banks do the same thing when they borrow money. And sometimes banks will even borrow money from the Federal Reserve. This is actually one of the reasons why the central bank exists– to act as a “lender of last resort” if banks need an emergency loan.
And when banks borrow money from the Fed, they have to post collateral too.
Instead of automobiles and houses, though, banks use their financial assets as collateral– specifically their bonds.
This is actually codified by law (12 CFR 201.108) whereby Congress lists specific assets that the Fed can accept as collateral when making loans to banks. The list is basically different types of bonds.
But this is the root of the problem. Banks are in financial trouble because their bond portfolios have lost so much value. Some banks (like SVB) are even insolvent because of this.
So now, through the BTFP, the Fed will now accept banks’ sagging bond portfolios as collateral, but loan the bank MORE money than the bond portfolios are worth.
Let’s say you’re an insolvent bank that invested, say, $100 billion in bonds. Those bonds are now worth $85 billion, and your bank is about to go under. “NO PROBLEMO!” says the Fed.
The bank simply posts their bond portfolio (which is only worth $85 billion) as collateral, and the Fed will loan the bank the full $100 billion… as if those losses never occurred.
It’s a complete lie. Everyone is pretending that the banks haven’t lost any money to give you a false sense of confidence in the financial system. “Believe the Fiction, People.”
Remember that banks in the US have more than $600 billion in unrealized bond losses right now. And that number will keep increasing if interest rates continue to rise.
So this means that the Fed has essentially guaranteed that entire $600+ billion. Commercial banks won’t lose a penny— they can now pass their financial risks down to the Federal Reserve.
This isn’t a bailout… it’s a time bomb.
We can keep our fingers crossed and hope that this time bomb never explodes. But if it does, the Federal Reserve is going to be looking at hundreds of billions in losses… which would trigger devastating consequences for the US dollar.
This means that everyone who uses US dollars… including every man, woman, and child in America, is ultimately on the hook for the potential consequences of the BTFP.
And that’s what is so remarkable about this: the Fed just made this decision all on its own.
Congress didn’t pass a law. There were no hearings, no judicial oversight, no votes.
Instead, several unelected bureaucrats who have been consistently wrong got together in a room and decided to guarantee $600+ billion in bank losses… and stick the American people with the consequences.
This is the same organization that said in February 2021 that there was no inflation.
The same organization that said in July 2021 that inflation was transitory and would pass in a few months.
The same organization that said in June 2022 that they finally understand “how little we understand about inflation.”
The same organization that said THREE DAYS before SVB’s collapse that “nothing about the data” suggested any risks with their policy actions.
The Fed has been wrong at every critical point over the past few years. And they’ve now unilaterally signed up every single person in America to a $600+ billion bank bailout without so much as a courtesy phone call to Congress.
This is apparently what Democracy means in America today.
We’ve all been subjected to endless vitriol over the past few years with people on all sides howling that “Democracy is under attack.”
Well, we just watched an unelected committee of central bankers hijack democracy and stick the American people with a potential $600+ billion bank bailout.
* * *
Worried about your savings? Wondering if your bank is next after SVB? You’re not alone. For over a decade, Sovereign Man has seen the writing on the banking wall, and has been warning people about looming crises. The good news? There’s still time to safeguard your savings. Download our brand-new 20-page report entitled “The SVB Collapse: How To Tell If YOUR Bank Is Safe” to discover how you can keep your money safe in a time of sudden banking collapses.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/17/2023 – 18:10
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