Today’s News 18th March 2024

• Which Countries Have A Legal Cannabis Market?
  Which Countries Have A Legal Cannabis Market?

  Non-medical cannabis sales are forecast to surge by around 74 percent in the United States between 2024 and 2028, increasing from $20.2 billion to $35.1 billion.

  This is according to estimates calculated on July 2023 by analysts at Statista Market Insights and is based on the 11 countries in which cannabis was fully or partially legalized in around the world.

  As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, the U.S. is already the biggest market for non-medical legal cannabis worldwide.

  It is forecast to expand to become almost seven times bigger than the next largest market, neighboring Canada.

  Canada has a sizeable market considering that the drug’s use for recreational purposes only became legal across the country on October 17, 2018.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  As the chart above shows, Cannabis will soon be legally available in Germany too, with possession and cultivation of the plant for personal consumption legal for adults as of April 1, 2024.

  It will not be the sole market in Europe either, with the Netherlands and Spain both projected to see growth in the next four years.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 03/18/2024 – 02:45

• "Reduce Poverty Migration To Zero" – German Politicians Propose Crackdown On Migrants Sending Billions To Their Home Countries
  “Reduce Poverty Migration To Zero” – German Politicians Propose Crackdown On Migrants Sending Billions To Their Home Countries

  By John Cody of Remix News

  Every year, migrants and refugees transfer billions of euros from Germany to family members in their home countries, with the Bundesbank estimating this to be at least €6.8 billion per year.

  

  Now, some German political parties want to crack down on this development, with the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) seeking to “reduce poverty migration to zero” with restrictions on cash payments and social benefits.

  Some of the money sent abroad is earned from work, but a substantial amount is likely from social welfare payments transferred to migrants, who then send it out of the country to support their families across the world. Since many of these social welfare benefits are distributed as cash, there is little oversight in how this money is used and transferred by migrants.

  These foreigners have a substantial incentive to send this money overseas, where due to exchange rates and different standards of living, the euro can go far further than it can in Germany. However, these social welfare payments were never designed to be sent overseas, and are meant to provide the necessary support for migrants within Germany.

  The debate on these remittances is only growing, with pro-migration parties working to stop efforts to disburse social welfare through electronic cards rather than cash. There is an awareness that if migrants stop receiving this money in cash, it may even serve as an incentive to leave the country. Not only would cash remittances become far more difficult, but prostitutes, drugs, and alcohol could also face restrictions.

  However, so-called vices such as alcohol and cigarettes may still be freely available with the new bank cards for migrants, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) working to enact restrictions on certain products.

  “Established politics is once again misleading the German public. The goal of all reforms of asylum seeker benefits must be to reduce poverty migration to Germany to zero. To achieve this, all false incentives must be eliminated immediately. This is not feasible with a payment card for asylum seekers that continues to provide cash benefits and does not even exclude things like alcohol or cigarettes,” said AfD parliamentary group spokesperson, René Springer.

  “We need a strict principle of benefits in kind for asylum seekers — bread, bed, and soap. There should be nothing more. Only then can we really assume that people who ask for asylum here are actually seeking protection. Asylum is only intended for this purpose and not as an access portal to German social benefits,” he continued.

  It is not just the AfD working to abolish cash benefits. Free Democrats (FDP) parliamentary group leader Christian Dürr said these cash benefits have been a “real pull factor. A lot of money was then sent home. We don’t want that.”

  However, other pro-migrant politicians such as the Green Party’s Erik Marquardt claim that migrants sending this tax money home is actually a good thing, saying that it is an “important part of development cooperation.” The argument is that these migrants are helping their families out of poverty.

  Continue reading at rmx.news

   

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 03/18/2024 – 02:00

• Escobar: Will BRICS Launch A New World Order In 2024?
  Escobar: Will BRICS Launch A New World Order In 2024?

  Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

  BRICS doubled its membership at the start of 2024, and faces huge tasks ahead: integrating its newest members, developing future admission criteria, deepening the institution’s groundings, and most importantly, launching the mechanisms for bypassing the US dollar in international finance.

  

  Across the Global South, countries are lining up to join the multipolar BRICS and the Hegemon-free future it promises. The onslaught of interest has become an unavoidable theme of discussion during this crucial year of the Russian presidency of what, for the moment, is BRICS-10.  

  Indonesia and Nigeria are among the top tiers of candidates likely to join. The same applies to Pakistan and Vietnam. Mexico is in a very complex bind: how to join without summoning the ire of the Hegemon.  

  And then there’s the new candidacy on a roll: Yemen, which enjoys plenty of support from Russia, China, and Iran. 

  It’s been up to Russia’s top BRICS sherpa, the immensely capable Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, to clarify what’s ahead. He tells TASS: 

  We must provide a platform for the countries interested in rapprochement with the BRICS, where they will be able to work practically without feeling left behind and joining this cooperation rhythm. And as to how the further expansion will be decided upon – this should be postponed at least until the leaders convene in Kazan to decide.

  The key decision on BRICS+ expansion will only come out of the Kazan summit next October. Ryabkov stresses that the order of the day is first “to integrate those who have just joined.” This means that “as a ‘ten,’ we work at least as efficiently, or, rather, more efficiently than we did within the initial ‘five.'”

  Only then will the BRICS-10 “develop the category of partner states,” which, in fact, means creating a consensus-based list out of the dozens of nations that are literally itching to join the club. 

  Ryabkov always makes a point to note, in public and in private, that the twofold increase of BRICS members starting on 1 January 2024 is “an unprecedented event for any international structure.”

  It isn’t an easy task, Ryabkov says: 

  Last year, it took an entire year to develop the admission, expansion criteria at the level of top officials. Many reasonable things were developed. And many of the things that were formulated back then got reflected in the list of countries that joined. But it would probably be improper to formalize the requirements. At the end of the day, an admission to the association is a subject of political decision.

  What happens after Russia’s presidential elections 

  In a private meeting with a few select individuals on the sidelines of the recent multipolar conference in Moscow, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke effusively of BRICS, with particular emphasis on his counterparts Wang Yi of China and S. Jaishankar of India. 

  Lavrov holds great expectations for BRICS-10 this year – at the same time, reminding everyone that this is still a club; it must eventually go deeper in institutional terms, for instance, by appointing a secretariat-general, just like its cousin-style organization, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

  The Russian presidency will have its hands full for the next few months, not only navigating the geopolitical spectrum of current crises but, most of all, geoeconomics. A crucial ministerial meeting in June – only three months away – will have to define a detailed road map all the way to the Kazan summit four months later. 

  What happens after this week’s Russian presidential elections will also condition BRICS policy. A new Russian government will be sworn in only by early May. It is widely expected that there will be no substantial changes within the Russian Finance Ministry, Central Bank, Foreign Ministry, and among top Kremlin advisers. 

  Continuity will be the norm. 

  And that brings us to the key geoeconomics dossier: the BRICS at the forefront of bypassing the US dollar in international finance. 

  Last week, top Kremlin adviser Yury Ushakov announced that BRICS will work towards setting up an independent payment system based on digital currencies and blockchain. 

  Ushakov specifically emphasized “state-of-the-art tools such as digital technologies and blockchain. The main thing is to make sure it is convenient for governments, common people, and businesses, as well as cost-effective and free of politics.”

  Ushakov did not mention it explicitly, but a new alternative system already exists. For the moment, it is a closely, carefully guarded project in the form of a detailed white paper that has already been validated academically and also incorporates answers to possible frequently asked questions. 

  The Cradle was briefed on the system via several meetings since last year with a small group of world-class fintech experts. The system has already been presented to Ushakov himself. As it stands, it is on the verge of receiving a final green light from the Russian government. After clearing a series of tests, the system in thesis would be ready to be presented to all BRICS-10 members before the Kazan summit. 

  This all ties in with Ushakov publicly declaring that a specific task for 2024 is to increase the role of BRICS in the international monetary/ financial system. 

  Ushakov recalls how, in the 2023 Johannesburg Declaration, the BRICS heads of state focused on increasing settlements in national currencies and strengthening correspondent banking networks. The target was to “continue to develop the Contingent Reserve Arrangement, primarily regarding the use of currencies different from the US dollar.” 

  No single currency for the foreseeable future 

  All of the above frames the absolute key issue being currently discussed in Moscow, within the Russia–China partnership, and soon, deeper among the BRICS-10: alternative settlement payments to the US dollar, increased trade among “friendly nations,” and controls on capital flight.  

  Ryabkov added more crucial elements to the debate, saying this week that the BRICS are not debating the implementation of a single currency: 

  As for a single currency, similar to what was created by the European Union, this is hardly possible in the foreseeable future. If we are talking about clearing forms of mutual settlements such as the ECU [European Currency Unit] at an early stage of development of the European Union, in the absence of a real means of payment, but the opportunity to more effectively use the available resources of the countries in mutual settlements to avoid losses due to differences in exchange rates, and so on, then this is precisely the path along which, in my opinion, BRICS should move. This is under consideration.

  The key takeaway, per Ryabkov, is that the BRICS should not create a financial and monetary alliance; they should create payment and settlement systems that do not depend upon the shifty “rules-based international order.” 

  That’s exactly the emphasis of the ideas and experiments already developed by Minister of Integration and Macroeconomy at the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) Sergei Glazyev, as he explained in an exclusive interview, as well as the new groundbreaking project on the verge of being greenlighted by the Russian government.  

  Ryabkov confirmed that “a group of experts, led by the Ministries of Finance and representatives of the Central Banks of the respective [BRICS] countries,” is working nonstop on the dossier. Moreover, there are “consultations in other formats, including with the participation of representatives of the ‘historical west.'”

  Ryabkov’s own takeaway mirrors what the BRICS as a whole are aiming at: 

  Collectively, we must come up with a product that would be, on the one hand, quite ambitious (because it is impossible to continue to tolerate the dictates of the west in this area), but at the same time realistic, not out of touch with the ground. That is, a product that would be efficient. And all this should be presented in Kazan for consideration by the leaders.

  In a nutshell: the big breakthrough may be literally knocking at the BRICS door. It just depends on a simple green light by the Russian government. 

  Now compare the BRICS devising the contours of a new geoeconomics paradigm with the collective west mulling the actual theft of Russia’s seized assets to the benefit of the black hole that is Ukraine.

  Apart from being a de facto declaration by the US and EU against Russia, this is something that carries the potential, in itself, of totally smashing the current global financial system. 

  A theft of Russian assets, would it ever happen, will render livid, to put it mildly, at least two key BRICS members, China and Saudi Arabia, who bring to the table considerable economic heft. Such a move by the west would completely destroy the concept of the rule of law, which theoretically underpins the global financial system. 

  The Russian response will be fierce. The Russian Central Bank could, in a flash, sue and confiscate the assets of Belgian Euroclear, one of the world’s largest settlement and clearing systems, on whose accounts Russian reserves were frozen. 

  And that on top of seizing Euroclear’s assets in Russia – which amount to roughly 33 billion euros. With Euroclear running out of capital, the Belgian Central Bank will have to revoke its license, causing a massive financial crisis.

  Talk about a clash of paradigms: western robbery versus a Global South-based equitable trade and finance settlement system. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 23:20

• From Pioneer To Fallen Giant: How Hewlett Packard's Long List Of Failed Acquisitions Cost Its Reputation, Part 3
  From Pioneer To Fallen Giant: How Hewlett Packard’s Long List Of Failed Acquisitions Cost Its Reputation, Part 3

  Part 3 in the series “From pioneer to fallen giant: How Hewlett Packard’s long list of failed acquisitions cost its reputation.” 

  Read Part 1 “Billion dollar bungles” here;

  and Part 2 “The Autonomy Deal – Part 1: Leo Apotheker’s Downfall“ here.

  The Autonomy deal – part 2: Corporate conspiracy and cover-up

  In the first article in this series, we looked at how in the first decade of the 21st century, Hewlett Packard lurched from one disastrous acquisition to another. We then zoomed in on one of the most controversial of HP’s acquisitions – the Autonomy deal – which quickly fell to pieces.

  In this article, we’ll pick up the story in summer 2012. Meg Whitman, HP’s CEO, had signaled she had given up on any attempt to properly integrate the newly purchased Autonomy by firing its founder, Dr Mike Lynch.

  This could have been the end of it. Like so many of HP’s previous failed acquisitions, the Autonomy story might be now remembered as an embarrassing footnote in HP’s long history.

  Instead, more than a decade on, the HP-Autonomy saga is still playing out in the headlines and in courtrooms in the UK and US. The origins of this battle are the day in November 2012 when HP launched a calculated attack on Autonomy’s leadership, claiming with extraordinary bluster it had been defrauded when acquiring the company. The latest season in this long-running drama will start in a few days in a California court, where Dr Lynch is being tried as a criminal.

  Backing up a few months to July 2012, it was plain that HP was in serious trouble. Since the start of 2011, its share price had fallen from $20.5 to barely over $6.

  By this point, it was obvious that HP would have to conduct a write-down of its assets to bring its book value back in-line with its market value. This accounting exercise was the responsibility of CFO Cathie Lesjak. As explained in the previous article in the series, Lesjak was firmly against the Autonomy acquisition and fought tooth-and-nail to kill the deal. She asked her team to conduct an analysis of Autonomy’s value to see if an impairment should be recognized.

  Her team concluded that the fair value of Autonomy approximated the carrying value. In other words, no impairment was necessary. Indeed, as documents uncovered in the various court cases that followed show, HP’s accountants still saw potential in Autonomy. They suggested its poor performance was due to “execution issues caused by challenges with operating Autonomy in the HP environment and loss of the legacy Autonomy management team.” In their opinion, Autonomy was still worth what HP paid for it.

  This was an unhelpful view insofar as HP still needed to find ways to bring its book and market cap in-line with one another. Logic would dictate other HP assets and business lines would have to be written down.

  But CEO Meg Whitman was desperate to avoid that outcome. Let’s consider her position. Whitman had recently lost a bruising gubernatorial race, where she came under personal attack for hiring an illegal immigrant as a housemaid, and managed to blow $140m of her own money.

  It is reasonable to assume that if she took the job at HP, she would recoup some of those losses, both financial and reputational. Whitman would be forgiven if she was utterly dismayed when she walked into the dumpster fire that was HP. Presiding over the rapid decline of what was once a Silicon Valley giant would not do much for her resume.

  HP’s eyes turned to Autonomy once gain – as detailed in the previous article, it was a deeply annoying leftover from the Apotheker regime. Cathie Lesjak, still CFO, didn’t want to HP to acquire it in the first place.

  HP began to create a negative narrative about the Autonomy business. They were going to ruthlessly target it so it would become the scapegoat for the failings of HP’s declining empire.

  To reach the end goal of publicly pointing the finger at Autonomy, HP embarked on a series of financial manipulations.

  First, they fiddled with growth rates. Documents show that HP dramatically cut the projected revenue growth for Autonomy on the basis that its revenues had declined while under HP’s management.

  Then, in October, HP’s accountants took out the expected synergies. That allowed them to reach a valuation of $1.6bn.

  But of course, under that analysis, HP would effectively be admitting to the market that it had made a mess of the integration, and wouldn’t gain a cent of revenue growth it said it would when it acquired Autonomy. Such a narrative would make it appear that Meg Whitman and her allies had failed to make anything of the Autonomy deal. Whitman realised this. Internal HP communications show how she had the figures changed to put $2.3bn worth of synergies put back in.

  The third move was to play with discount rates. A higher rate was applied to Autonomy to make its value smaller. While HP had applied a discount rate of 9.5% to Autonomy in August 2012, by October, it artificially increased that rate to 15% to come up with the impairment it wanted. As with the synergies, Whitman intervened at the 11th hour, the night before the board was due to meet to discuss the impairment, asking that this was increased again to 16%.

  HP’s finance team were, understandably, getting worried about these entirely arbitrary calculations that they were being asked to make. One HP accountant described the results as “nonsensical”.

  By October 2012, HP had formulated a valuation for Autonomy of $2.2 billion – a write down of $8.8 billion – through a combination of lower growth rates, lower margins, lower projected synergies, and the “nonsensical” discount rate. This wasn’t the result of methodical review based on detailed accounting or a report from external advisors.

  But all this begs a huge question: where does fraud come into this?

  After all, Dr Mike Lynch is about to be tried for wire and securities fraud as a result of HP’s claim. However, as seen in court documents, in October 2012 after weeks of work by HP’s finance team, there was nothing to suggest a suspected fraud orchestrated by Autonomy’s people was the reason behind their write-down of the company. 

  That’s what made HP’s next move all the more incomprehensible.

  On November 20, 2012, it told the market it had been the victim of “serious accounting improprieties, misrepresentations and disclosure failures” during the course of the Autonomy acquisition. HP said this was the reason for $5.2bn of the $8.8bn write-down announced that day. In a press release, HP said that it had run an “intense internal investigation” into these “improprieties”, which included a “forensic review by PwC” of Autonomy’s financial records.

  This was a flat-out lie. No investigation took place, let alone a “forensic” review. The conclusion HP came to – that Autonomy and its leadership was somehow crooked – was pre-determined to fit HP’s narrative. The $5.2 billion figure was cooked up in the weeks preceding, it was not the result of extensive evidence gathering.

  HP peddled this myth all in a bid to save face and direct the market away from its own steep decline. On the same day, HP released its latest set of disappointing results: reporting revenue was down 7% and net losses reached $6.9 billion. It was a “tough quarter across the board” as CNN put it.

  After the initial shock of HP’s bombshell write-down announcement, investors and the media began poking around more deliberately.

  HP’s Head of Investor Relations was clearly uncomfortable, stating in internal communications that he thought it “disingenuous” that HP were not being up front about the fact that the expected synergies had not been achieved post-acquisition.

  And it wasn’t just HP staffers who were unhappy. As a New York Times piece points out, HP’s external accounts, Ernst & Young, did not believe there were accounting irregularities involved.

  An email exchange involving Lesjak and HP’s Chief Communications Officer highlighted that the media couldn’t understand how HP had reached the $5.2 billion figure. The CCO asked if the finance team could prepare an infographic to help show HP’s working.

  But of course, there was no detailed working. So when Lesjak asked for more details, she received an email on 30 November from a member of her team stating, “we’ve never formally prepared anything to attribute the irregularities to the amount of the write down”.

  In another email trail between Lesjak and the HP communications team she argued it would be better not to “go down this path” with the media, since she herself could not explain how the $5.2 billion figure had been arrived at.

  The fact that a major corporation’s CFO could not explain the basis of a market-critical announcement speaks volumes. Lesjak’s haziness on the matter was exposed when she was cross-examined in a British court years later.

  HP could not justify its claims then, nor can it justify them now. The company’s track record on acquisitions was so poor, and its overall performance so abysmal, that its leadership made a calculated decision to concoct a claim of fraud rather than admit the Autonomy integration was yet another HP management disaster. And when difficult questions arose about the write-down, HP’s leadership closed ranks and doubled down on their claim, despite the doubts of colleagues and external consultants.  

  To this day, HP continues to demand its pound of flesh, somehow convincing itself it has been a victim.  It has spent millions of dollars on lawyers and PR in the process. This is shareholder’s money, all to protect the reputation of Meg Whitman and her CFO.

  All too predictably, the Silicon Valley company and its army of lawyers has got its way. The US Government orchestrated the extradition of Autonomy’s founder, Dr Mike Lynch, and he will face trial in California this month.

  It is a stark and shocking reminder of two things: one, the once great Hewlett Packard lost its way long ago, and has burnt through cash trying to acquire its way out of trouble, and two, the lengths corporate America will go to avoid facing up to difficult truths.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 22:45

• Supreme Court Rules Public Officials May Block Their Constituents On Social Media
  Supreme Court Rules Public Officials May Block Their Constituents On Social Media

  Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Public officials may block people on social media in certain situations, the Supreme Court ruled unanimously on March 15.

  

  At the same time, the court held that public officials who post about topics pertaining to their work on their personal social media accounts are acting on behalf of the government. But such officials can be found liable for violating the First Amendment only when they have been properly authorized by the government to communicate on its behalf.

  The case is important because nowadays public officials routinely reach out to voters through social media on the same pages where they discuss personal matters unrelated to government business.

  “When a government official posts about job-related topics on social media, it can be difficult to tell whether the speech is official or private,” Justice Amy Coney Barrett wrote for the nation’s highest court.

  The case is separate from but brings to mind a lawsuit that several individuals previously filed against former President Donald Trump after he blocked them from accessing his social media account on Twitter, which was later renamed X. The Supreme Court dismissed that case, Biden v. Knight First Amendment Institute, in April 2021 as moot because President Trump had already left office.

  At the time of the ruling, the then-Twitter had banned President Trump. When Elon Musk took over the company he reversed that policy.

  The new decision in Lindke v. Freed was written by Justice Amy Coney Barrett.

  Respondent James Freed, the city manager of Port Huron, Michigan, used a public Facebook account to communicate with his constituents. Petitioner Kevin Lindke, a resident of Port Huron, criticized the municipality’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, including accusations of hypocrisy by local officials.

  Mr. Freed blocked Mr. Lindke and others and removed their comments, according to Mr. Lindke’s petition.

  The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit ruled for Mr. Freed, finding that he was acting only in a personal capacity and that his activities did not constitute governmental action.

  Mr. Freed’s attorney, Victoria Ferres, said during oral arguments before the Supreme Court on Oct. 31, 2023, that her client didn’t give up his rights when using social media.

  “This country’s 21 million government employees should have the right to talk publicly about their jobs on personal social media accounts like their private-sector counterparts.”

  The position advocated by the other side would unfairly punish government officials, and “will result in uncertainty and self-censorship for this country’s government employees despite this Court repeatedly finding that government employees do not lose their rights merely by virtue of public employment,” she said.

  In Lindke v. Freed, the Supreme Court found that a public official who prevents a person from comments on the official’s social media pages engages in governmental action under Section 1983 only if the official had “actual authority” to speak on the government’s behalf on a specific matter and if the official claimed to exercise that authority when speaking in the relevant social media posts.

  Section 1983 refers to Title 42, U.S. Code, Section 1983, which allows people to sue government actors for deprivation of civil rights.

  Justice Barrett wrote that according to the so-called state action doctrine, the test for “actual authority” must be “rooted in written law or longstanding custom to speak for the State.”

  “That authority must extend to speech of the sort that caused the alleged rights deprivation. If the plaintiff cannot make this threshold showing of authority, he cannot establish state action.”

  “For social-media activity to constitute state action, an official must not only have state authority—he must also purport to use it,” the justice continued.

  “State officials have a choice about the capacity in which they choose to speak.”

  Citing previous precedent, Justice Barrett wrote that generally a public employee claiming to speak on behalf of the government acts with state authority when he speaks “in his official capacity or” when he uses his speech to carry out “his responsibilities pursuant to state law.”

  “If the public employee does not use his speech in furtherance of his official responsibilities, he is speaking in his own voice.”

  The Supreme Court remanded the case to the 6th Circuit with instructions to vacate its judgment and ordered it to conduct “further proceedings consistent with this opinion.”

  Also on March 15, the Supreme Court ruled on O’Connor-Ratcliff v. Garnier, a related case. The court’s sparse, unanimous opinion was unsigned.

  Petitioners Michelle O’Connor-Ratcliff and T.J. Zane were two elected members of the Poway Unified School District Board of Trustees in California who used their personal Facebook and Twitter accounts to communicate with the public.

  Respondents Christopher Garnier and Kimberly Garnier, parents of local students, “spammed Petitioners’ posts and tweets with repetitive comments and replies” so the school board members blocked the respondents from the accounts, according to the petition filed by Ms. O’Connor-Ratcliff and Mr. Zane.

  But the Garniers said they were acting in good faith.

  “The Garniers left comments exposing financial mismanagement by the former superintendent as well as incidents of racism,” the couple said in a brief.

  The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit found in favor of the Garniers, holding that elected officials using social media accounts were participating in a public forum.

  The Supreme Court ruled in a three-page opinion that because the 9th Circuit deviated from the standard the high court articulated in Lindke v. Freed, the 9th Circuit’s decision must be vacated.

  The case was remanded to the 9th Circuit “for further proceedings consistent with our opinion” in the Lindke case, the Supreme Court stated.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 22:10

• Planet Fitness Cancels Membership Of Woman Who Exposed Biological Male Using Women's Locker Room
  Planet Fitness Cancels Membership Of Woman Who Exposed Biological Male Using Women’s Locker Room

  Planet Fitness is defending its decision to ban the membership of a customer in Alaska who spoke out about a “man in women’s locker room shaving.”

  Patricia Silva left the gym in Fairbanks, Alaska and shared a video on Facebook where she said: “I just came out of Planet Fitness. There is a man shaving in the women’s bathroom.”

  She also said the man “woman” was in the locker room at the same time as a 12 year old girl. 

  Woman in Planet Fitness claims she went into the bathroom and this man who thinks he’s a woman was in there shaving.

  Why does @PlanetFitness allow men to use the women’s bathroom and invade women’s private spaces?? pic.twitter.com/qVJ0YUFQvc

  — Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) March 12, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  She added: “I love him in Christ. He is a spiritual being having a human experience. He doesn’t like his gender so he wants to be a woman, but I’m not comfortable with him shaving in my bathroom.”

  Planet Fitness didn’t take kindly to the interaction and cancelled Silva’s membership, telling ABC affiliate WDPE: “As the home of the Judgement Free Zone, Planet Fitness is committed to creating an inclusive environment.”

  The gym said: “Our gender identity non-discrimination policy states that members and guests may use the gym facilities that best align with their sincere, self-reported gender identity. The member who posted on social media violated our mobile device policy that prohibits taking photos of individuals in the locker room, which resulted in their membership being terminated.”

  Planet Fitness’ website currently states: “At Planet Fitness, we celebrate and champion diversity and provide an environment where everyone feels accepted, respected and like they belong. Planet Fitness prohibits discrimination and harassment that is based on gender identity or gender expression in the workplace and in our clubs. The following is our corporate policy regarding the accommodation of our members and team members in terms of their gender identity.”

  “Planet Fitness prohibits discrimination and harassment that is based on gender identity or gender expression in the workplace and in our clubs.”

  WOW. Planet Fitness is standing by their decision to allow men in women’s locker rooms.

  Their policies actually allow males in female spaces. They instruct women to just deal with their discomfort and make sure not to misgender the trans person in their locker room.… https://t.co/1fA52PY21Q pic.twitter.com/wl5ZCxMtVs

  — Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) March 15, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 20:25

• Pro-Israel Congressmen Pressed On 'River To The Sea' Hypocrisy
  Pro-Israel Congressmen Pressed On ‘River To The Sea’ Hypocrisy

  Submitted by Decensored News

  Decensored News joined forces with independent news outlet The Grayzone this week, producing/editing a video based around footage of Grayzone contributor Liam Cosgrove confronting several pro-Israel congressmen over their hypocritical condemnation of the phrase “from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free” (see above).

  They suddenly didn’t find it inherently “genocidal” anymore when Cosgrove quoted from the 1977 original Israeli Likud party platform for them, which contains a similar phrase (bold added):

  The right of the Jewish people to the land of Israel is eternal and indisputable and is linked with the right to security and peace; therefore, Judea and Samaria will not be handed to any foreign administration; between the Sea and the Jordan there will only be Israeli sovereignty.

  Much more recently, Benjamin Netanyahu said during a January 2024 news conference that “in any future arrangement… Israel needs security control over all territory west of the Jordan River.”

  “This is a necessary condition, and it collides with the idea of sovereignty,” he added. “What can you do?”

  “Rep. Rashida Tlaib was censured by her colleagues for calling for Palestinians to be liberated from apartheid ‘from the river to the sea,’ ” said Grayzone editor-in-chief Max Blumenthal while sharing the video above on X.

  “Rep. Brian Mast declares, ‘From the river to the sea, Palestine will never be,’ knowing nothing will happen except more AIPAC donations.”

  Democratic congressmen Dan Goldman and Jared Moskotwitz also appear in the video, engaging in what The Grayzone called “obscene levels of hypocrisy.”

  This is Decensored News’ second collaboration with Cosgrove, having previously worked with him on a video based around interviews he conducted with congressmen Dan Crenshaw, Byron Donalds, August Pfluger, and Juan Ciscomani a few months ago.

  See from November: “Pro-Israel Congressmen pressed on Israel’s long history of deliberately propping up Hamas“

  MUST SEE: Journalist @cosgrove_iv presses pro-Israel Congressmen about Benjamin Netanyahu & the Israeli government’s long history of propping up Hamas

  “Shouldn’t you look into this BEFORE we send billions of dollars over to Israel?”

  Ft. @ScottHortonShow & @ComicDaveSmith pic.twitter.com/BwJXrcAJst

  — Decensored News (@decensorednews) December 12, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  For more reporting like this, please follow Decensored News on your favorite social media platforms and bookmark the website. Liam Cosgrove can be found on X (@cosgrove_iv).

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 19:50

• Housing Affordability Crisis Solved: Sedona To Let Homeless Workers Sleep In Cars
  Housing Affordability Crisis Solved: Sedona To Let Homeless Workers Sleep In Cars

  In a move that’s raising eyebrows and rankling residents, the swanky city of Sedona, Arizona is addressing its outrageous housing costs by creating a parking area so homeless workers have a place to sleep in their cars legally. 

  After an acrimonious debate that spanned almost seven hours, the city council approved the Safe Place to Park program by a 6-1 vote. Under the scheme, 40 parking spaces will be made available in a 6-acre parking lot at the town’s Cultural Park, a 41-acre property that used to be a performance venue. The lot will be outfitted with temporary bathrooms and showers. 

  

  A homeless coalition will be charged with overseeing the facility from 10pm to 8am, and all cars have to leave the lot during the day — so much for night-shift workers. To secure a spot in the lot, individuals must be full-time workers in the city. Proponents say the lot will help prevent homeless workers from sleeping in cars parked on Sedona streets or on the national forest land that is one of Sedona’s major tourist draws. 

  They’ll also have to engage with social workers who will help them strive to find permanent homes. Good luck. With the average house in the isolated town going for $930,000, and rental homes oriented toward big-spending vacationers, the desert paradise is unaffordable for many blue-collar workers. 

  We are over 440 signatures! Sign now before the next City Council meeting and let them know that sleeping in your car in not a good option. We can do better!
  Stop the Homeless Parking Lot at Cultural Park in Sedona – Sign the Petition! https://t.co/DsSKEdRWFK via @Change

  — StraightTalkSedona (@STSedona) February 13, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  City officials reassured residents that the lot will not be visible from any of their homes — so they won’t have to worry about inadvertently casting their gaze on the homeless workers who make their lux lives in Sedona possible. 

  Residents worry the lot will become a hub of criminality and drug use. One resident who fled homeless-plagued Portland for sanctuary in Sedona is already working on an end-around to kill the program. “If the city does pass this misbegotten zoning ordinance, I’ve already prepared and tomorrow I will file for a ballot referendum so the people of Sedona can correct that mistake,” said Dr. Bill Noonan on the day of the vote. 

  

  “I don’t think there’s anybody up here or staff that are extremely proud of this. This is a last-ditch effort,” Mayor Scott Jablow told AZCentral. “No one’s really proud because this isn’t really the answer. It’s one of many answers.”

  We’re guessing his other “answers” don’t include ending the Fed. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 19:15

• Default: San Francisco Four Seasons Hotel Investors $3 Million Late On Loan As Foreclosure Looms
  Default: San Francisco Four Seasons Hotel Investors $3 Million Late On Loan As Foreclosure Looms

  Westbrook Partners, which acquired the San Francisco Four Seasons luxury hotel building, has been served a notice of default, as the developer has failed to make its monthly loan payment since December, and is currently behind by more than $3 million, the San Francisco Business Times reports.

  

  Westbrook, which acquired the property at 345 California Center in 2019, has 90 days to bring their account current with its lender or face foreclosure.

  Related

  • Fed Fears “Notable” Financial System Vulnerability As Renowned CRE Investor Tells Team ‘Stop All NYC Underwriting’
  • The State Of Commercial Real Estate, In Charts
  • “Who Could Be Next”: Top Canadian Pension Fund Sells Manhattan Office Tower For $1, Sparking Firesale Panic
  • “Heightened Risks”: Goldman Points To Leading CRE Indicator That Shows Pain Train Not Over

  As SF Gate notes, downtown San Francisco hotel investors have had a terrible few years – with interest rates higher than their pre-pandemic levels, and local tourism continuing to suffer thanks to the city’s legendary mismanagement that has resulted in overlapping drug, crime, and homelessness crises (which SF Gate characterizes as “a negative media narrative).

  Last summer, the owner of San Francisco’s Hilton Union Square and Parc 55 hotels abandoned its loan in the first major default. Industry insiders speculate that loan defaults like this may become more common given the difficult period for investors.

  At a visitor impact summit in August, a senior director of hospitality analytics for the CoStar Group reported that there are 22 active commercial mortgage-backed securities loans for hotels in San Francisco maturing in the next two years. Of these hotel loans, 17 are on CoStar’s “watchlist,” as they are at a higher risk of default, the analyst said. -SF Gate

  The 155-room Four Seasons San Francisco at Embarcadero currenly occupies the top 11 floors of the iconic skyscrper. After slow renovations, the hotel officially reopened in the summer of 2021.

  “Regarding the landscape of the hotel community in San Francisco, the short term is a challenging situation due to high interest rates, fewer guests compared to pre-pandemic and the relatively high costs attached with doing business here,” Alex Bastian, President and CEO of the Hotel Council of San Francisco, told SFGATE.

  Heightened Risks

  In January, the owner of the Hilton Financial District at 750 Kearny St. – Portsmouth Square’s affiliate Justice Operating Company – defaulted on the property, which had a $97 million loan on the 544-room hotel taken out in 2013. The company says it proposed a loan modification agreement which was under review by the servicer, LNR Partners.

  Meanwhile last year Park Hotels & Resorts gave up ownership of two properties, Parc 55 and Hilton Union Square – which were transferred to a receiver that assumed management.

  In the third quarter of 2023, the most recent data available, the Hilton Financial District reported $11.1 million in revenue, down from $12.3 million from the third quarter of 2022. The hotel had a net operating loss of $1.56 million in the most recent third quarter.

  Occupancy fell to 88% with an average daily rate of $218 in the third quarter compared with 94% and $230 in the same period of 2022. –SF Chronicle

  According to the Chronicle, San Francisco’s 2024 convention calendar is lighter than it was last year – in part due to key events leaving the city for cheaper, less crime-ridden places like Las Vegas. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 18:05

• New York City Reaches Deal To Limit Shelter Stays For Adult Migrants
  New York City Reaches Deal To Limit Shelter Stays For Adult Migrants

  Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  New York City has reached an agreement with the Legal Aid Society that will enable the city to limit the duration of stay for adult migrants in shelters amid an ongoing surge in new arrivals, according to the mayor.

  

  The agreement essentially ends the blanket right to shelter for adult migrants after 30 days, allowing only those who meet “extenuating circumstances” to reapply on a case-by-case basis.

  “Today’s stipulation acknowledges that reality and grants us additional flexibility during times of crisis, like the national humanitarian crisis we are currently experiencing,” Mayor Eric Adams said in a press release.

  Mr. Adams said the city’s shelter system had fewer than 2,500 people in its care when “the Right to Shelter” law was enacted over 40 years ago, compared to the 120,000 people today, 65,000 of which are migrants.

  “New York City has led the nation in responding to a national humanitarian crisis, providing shelter and care to approximately 183,000 new arrivals since the spring of 2022, but we have been clear, from day one, that the ‘Right to Shelter’ was never intended to apply to a population larger than most U.S. cities descending on the five boroughs in less than two years,” he added.

  The settlement applies only to adults seeking shelter and does not impact families with children. Young adults, under the age of 23, will be granted 60 days of shelter.

  Additional time can be granted if there is evidence of “significant efforts to resettle,” which can include making an appointment with an immigration lawyer, applying for a resettlement program, or providing proof that they’re searching for housing.

  The agreement also requires that the city eliminates the backlog of new arrivals who have been forced to wait many days for another bed when reapplying for placement.

  The city also agreed to eliminate the use of waiting rooms as shelters and provide consistent access to bathrooms, showers, and food, according to a statement by the Legal Aid Society and the Coalition for the Homeless.

  “We will very closely monitor the City’s compliance with this settlement and we won’t hesitate to seek judicial intervention should there be noncompliance,” said Legal Aid Society attorney Adriene Holder.

  The right to shelter has been in place for more than four decades in New York, after a court in 1981 required the city to provide temporary housing for every homeless person who asks for it. Other big U.S. cities don’t have such a rule.

  

  New York’s shelter system is now filled to record levels. The city says it is currently providing housing for 93,000 people. In recent months it has rented out entire hotels to house the influx of migrants, at great cost. It has also put cots in schools, and temporarily housed people in tents, a cruise ship terminal, and a former police academy building.

  Mr. Adams has sought financial help from the state and federal government and has been critical of President Joe Biden’s administration for not providing funding to care for migrants.

  “Like impacted cities across the country, we cannot bear the brunt of this crisis alone and continue to seek significant support from our federal partners, including expedited work authorizations, more funding, and a national resettlement strategy,” he said.

  The Democrat mayor previously estimated it will cost the city roughly $12 billion over the next three years to handle the ongoing influx of immigrants.

  He also issued an executive order to clamp down on charter bus companies transporting illegal immigrants from Texas, stating that such firms must notify the city’s Emergency Management Office at least 32 hours before arriving in the city.

  Katabella Roberts and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 17:30

• SpaceX Reportedly Building Spy Satellite Constellation In Low Earth Orbit
  SpaceX Reportedly Building Spy Satellite Constellation In Low Earth Orbit

  SpaceX’s Starshield program has been building a constellation of spy satellites under a classified contract with the US National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) since 2021, Reuters reported, citing five people familiar with the program.  

  The spy satellite network will consist of hundreds of low-Earth orbiting satellites with Earth-imaging capabilities that can operate as a sat-swarm. SpaceX’s contract with the NRO, signed in 2021, totals $1.8 billion. 

  According to Reuters, if Starshield is successful, it would “significantly advance the ability of the US government and military to quickly spot potential targets almost anywhere on the globe.” 

  

  The contract signals a strengthening relationship between Musk and national security agencies despite radical progressives in the White House who have weaponized federal agencies against SpaceX and other Musk-owned companies. 

  Reuters noted it “was unable to determine when the new network of satellites would come online and could not establish what other companies are part of the program with their own contracts.” 

  SpaceX describes Starshield as for “government use” only, while “Starlink is designed for consumer and commercial use.” It also explains that Starshield is a “secured satellite network for government entities” that “supports national security efforts.”

  Starlink needs to be a civilian network, not a participant to combat.

  Starshield will be owned by the US government and controlled by DoD Space Force.

  This is the right order of things.

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 27, 2023

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  Last fall, SpaceX received a contract for the Starshield network from the US Space Force. 

  

  The planned Starshield network is entirely separate from Starlink, which has an expanding commercial broadband constellation of 5,500 satellites in low earth orbit that provides internet to consumers, companies, and government agencies worldwide. 

  

  Biden officials must be absolutely furious about Musk’s expanding relationship with the Pentagon to strengthen the nation’s defenses. 

  Musk is uncancellable – no matter how many federal agencies the Biden administration directs at the billionaire.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 16:55

• Real Wealth Vs Claims On Wealth: Bitcoin 2020s Vs USDollar 1800s
  Real Wealth Vs Claims On Wealth: Bitcoin 2020s Vs USDollar 1800s

  Authored by Kane McGukin via BombThrower.com,

  The following excerpts are from Tragedy and Hope. They detail the monetary environment from 1914 to the 1930s. When looked at independently the context helps explain the confusion we find across today’s monetary landscape.

  These passages help us better understand money and the lack of order that takes hold when international players desire a change to the system. The greatest challenge then and now was the battle between real wealth and claims on wealth.

  

  With the creation of the FED, the intent was to have a system of central control of the money supply, to provide a backstop in times of crisis, and to have a gold-based monetary system.

  However, the outcome led to a handful of powerful global bankers rather than a few powerful centralized institutions.

  While the mandate of the FED is said to be price stability and maximum employment, its actions arguably have been the opposite. Making it hard to resist the temptation to assume the goal was actually to empower and enrich the pockets of a few global investment bankers.

  Shedding light on the inner workings of the FED and BIS exposes a few harsh truths. It reveals a century’s worth of bankers who have chosen personal gain and growth of personal net worth over mandates of stability. These means have filtered down to the everyday politician who trades by day and passes bills to benefit those trades by night.

  Unfettered access to the cookie jar gives one the ability to control flows of credit across the globe.

  This power is hard to ignore and easily takes precedence over the intent of price stability and employment. Especially, when “no one’s looking”.

  In a post-2007 world, we find ourselves sitting with a very similar backdrop to the early 1900s.

  • Global strife due to inflation and a currency system imbalance.

  • Unsustainable global debt in the primary global reserve currency.

  • Increasingly levered institutions and individuals.

  • An upstart money/currency promising to reinstill a gold standard and promises to balance budgets while restoring exchange rates.

  This is Bitcoin in 2024. It Was the U.S. Dollar in 1914.

  What Bitcoin does that the dollar or any other fiat can’t do at this point is increase real wealth in the community.

  An economist or central banker will tell you this is bad because it leads to deflation.

  Yes, in an inflationary system like the one we currently have, that is true. However, in reality rather than in economics, deflation is not a bad thing. It is not bad that your cost of living should decline rather than increase over time. Unfortunately, it takes from the banker and gives to the individual. Therein lies the problem.

  Deflation in this sense is good, as it allows prices to fall for those who make sound financial decisions, save, and hold money; sound money. While taking from those who choose to lever up or hold a debt-laden money. Money that pre-spends its future by pulling it forward into today.

  This is the flaw of fiat currencies like the dollar.

  They are debt based. They pre-spend our future without any intention of thinking about how the piper must be paid.

  Gold, and now Bitcoin, play this deflationary role. Gold has for centuries and Bitcoin will in the digital century.

  

   

  In the early years of the dollar, 1800s and early 1900s, it played a similar role. A rising asset that allowed for more purchasing power (real wealth); until it was commandeered by international bankers in 1913.

  That was the moment when devaluation became the method chosen, as there were only three options to solve the economic issues at hand.

  (a)to increase the production of real wealth; (b) to decrease the quantity of money; or (c) to devaluate, or make each unit of money equal to a smaller amount of wealth (specifically gold).

  … The third method (devaluation) was essentially a recognition and acceptance of the existing situation, and would have left prices at the higher postwar level permanently. This would have involved a permanent reduction in the value of money, and also would have given different parities in foreign exchanges (unless there was international agreement that countries devaluate by the same ratio). But it would have made possible prosperity and a rising standard of living and would have accepted as permanent the redistribution of wealth from creditors to debtors brought about by the wartime.

  Today, we battle the problems left by the choice of devaluation.

  Sure, it led to a hundred years of the appearance of wealth and the appearance of rising standards of living. However, it shrank the pool of wealth and in a post-2007 world, the piper is here to be paid.

  Prices have remained permanently high, forever. The value of money has been reduced forever; by 92-99%. The parity difference between foreign exchange markets was broken by negligence, incompetence, and caused immigration to be the tool of destruction.

  These challenges could have been avoided but one must make a tough choice by choosing sound money. Money that builds real wealth and destroys claims on wealth. That is the choice today’s central banker seeks to avoid, again.

  Why? Because it requires erasing the appearance of rising living standards. It brings forward truth, and bankers would rather crank up the music instead. They’d rather continue on, pulling chairs away while everyone dances. Because they know most won’t notice, and there isn’t a reliable system of accountability to hold them responsible.

  

  *  *  *

  Get on the Bombthrower mailing list here and receive a free copy of The Crypto Capitalist Manifesto, which outlined all this. However, by the time you read this it may already be too late to sign up for The Bitcoin Capitalist Letter: new subscriptions will be closed once Bitcoin hits a new all-time high.
  Subscribe to Kane McGukin’s Substack here.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 16:20

• RFK Jr To Name Sergey Brin's Ex-Wife As Running Mate: Report
  RFK Jr To Name Sergey Brin’s Ex-Wife As Running Mate: Report

  After previously thinking NY Jets quarterback Aaron Rogers might be the right person to be a heartbeat away from the presidency, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr is now planning to select 38-year-old Nicole Shanahan, the wealthy ex-wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin, as his running mate. This according to a Saturday Mediaite report that cited “a source close to the campaign.”

  Shanahan is a Bay Area lawyer and tech entrepreneur who’s been a Democratic Party benefactor and donated to Biden’s 2020 campaign. In a February Times profile, she described herself as a “progressive through and through.” Aside from opening her wallet, she has no political profile whatsoever, seemingly not even having spoken out or written about issues of the day.  

  

  Last week, the New York Times reported that, in addition to the NFL’s Rogers, Kennedy was considering former Minnesota Gov and Predator co-star Jesse Ventura, among others. Mediaite’s source said RFK Jr and Shanahan “align on numerous issues,” including wariness about vaccines.

  The source also candidly spotlighted what is likely the principal attraction: “The campaign is also looking for a candidate who can help finance the ballot access initiative.” The campaign says that effort comes with a $15 million price tag. With under eight months to the election, he’s only on four ballots: Hawaii, Nevada, New Hampshire and Utah. Multiple states require the naming of a running mate before giving approval, which is why his decision is coming soon. 

  This leak doesn’t exactly sound like a coordinated trial balloon, as a source close to the campaign proceeded to throw Shanahan under the bus: 

  “She might be infusing millions of dollars into the campaign to help fund the ballot initiative, which makes her attractive financially; however, she lacks the qualifications to actually do the job.”

  Shanahan helped bankroll Kennedy’s Super Bowl ad, giving $4 million to the American Values 2024 PAC that’s supporting him. That represented a major change of heart: When Kennedy announced last fall that he was bailing on the rigged Democratic nomination process, Shanahan was “incredibly disappointed” and, at the time, decided not to back him, despite having given him a $6,000 maximum contribution in May, while he was trying to dislodge Biden.  

  RFK Jr. says he has an “extraordinary” VP pick, “but it’s not any of the people they’ve been talking about.”

  “It’s somebody that is going to surprise people and I think the country is really gonna fall in love with.” @RobertKennedyJr pic.twitter.com/jhZaoCLvNb

  — Holden Culotta (@Holden_Culotta) March 16, 2024

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  Mediaite was also first to report Kennedy’s decision to go independent. On Wednesday, the outlet found that Kennedy advisor Link Lipsitz registered the kennedyshanahan.com web domain, and observed that the page was ready to facilitate donations. When ZeroHedge tried accessing it, however, we received a “connection not private” warning for the site.

  A Kennedy campaign spokesperson declined to confirm the report, merely telling the New York Post, “There has been a lot of speculation in the media about Mr. Kennedy’s pick of vice presidential running mate. The official announcement will be on March 26 in Oakland.”

  Last summer, the Wall Street Journal reported that Shanahan’s 2023 divorce from Brin was sparked by a brief affair she had with Elon Musk. In addition to ending the five-year marriage, the Journal said the episode also terminated a long friendship between Musk and Brin. Musk called the report “total bs”: 

  This is total bs. Sergey and I are friends and were at a party together last night!

  I’ve only seen Nicole twice in three years, both times with many other people around. Nothing romantic.

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 25, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 15:45

• Gold Star Dad Who Interrupted State Of The Union Explains Why He Did It
  Gold Star Dad Who Interrupted State Of The Union Explains Why He Did It

  Authored by Alice Giordano via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  President Joe Biden had been talking for about an hour when Steven Nikoui began feeling like he was sitting in the Colosseum in the movie “Gladiator” rather than at a State of the Union address.

  “They’re all sitting in the stands and they’re looking at the beast down there and they’re getting amused. And I felt that. I rationalized it like that and I was a little sickened,” Mr. Nikoui said.

  “These people … they wouldn’t even have any of this if it wasn’t for someone like my kid or … any of the others.”

  

  He had hoped this would be the day that President Biden would say his son’s name, Kareem.

  But when the president said “America is safer today than when I took office,” the Gold Star father reached a breaking point.

  Mr. Nikoui likens the moment as “having an out of the body experience.”

  The anger and grief that had been stewing inside him for three years let loose.

  “Remember Abbey Gate! United States Marines! Kareem Mae’Lee Nikoui!”

  He shouted his son’s name, U.S. Marine Lance Corporal Kareem Nikoui, and the name of the airport gate in Kabul where a suicide bomber killed his son and 12 other U.S. Marines on Aug 26, 2021, during the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

  Then, he was arrested.

  

  Mr. Nikoui, who had been invited to the State of the Union by Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.), a veteran, was escorted out of the House Gallery.

  “I did have remorse,” he told The Epoch Times. “I felt ashamed.”

  Mr. Nikoui said he was placed in handcuffs and escorted to a police substation at the Capitol. There, his mugshot was taken and he was fingerprinted. He said he waived his Miranda Rights.

  The officers who arrested him “were pretty good,” he said, but they gave him an ultimatum: “If you talk to us, you‘ll be out in an hour. If you don’t talk to us, you’ll go to the DC jail and see the judge in the morning.”

  He said he was scared to go to jail. He’d never been arrested before.

  ‘He Would Have Been Proud’

  Mr. Nikoui said Kareem, meaning “generous and honorable” in Arabic, is a fitting name for his son.

  It’s exactly how his son, a proud American patriot, lived and died, he said. Something, he added, that President Biden has never once acknowledged.

  He said Kareem made the ultimate sacrifice for the country he had longed to serve since he was four years old.

  As a little boy, Kareem had a collection of “little army guys” he constantly played with, Mr. Nikoui recalled. His son joined Junior Reserve Officers’ Training Corps as soon as he was old enough and he loved military movies. His favorite was “Band of Brothers,” a TV mini series.

  Kareem’s commitment to serve was not a rite of passage as it so often is between father and son, Mr Nikoui said.

  “I was against it,” he said. “I knew this would happen. I buried my head in the sand. I didn’t know anything about the military. I told him I don’t want to know anything about this. Just get out. But he didn’t want to get out. He said ‘I’m going all the way.’”

  

  Mr. Nikoui, a born-again Christian, talked to The Epoch Times about his son and his March 7 arrest at the State of the Union.

  He also reflected on his relentless blame on President Biden for not following the Doha Agreement established under the Trump Administration. And his ardent belief that his son, who was only 20 when he was killed, would still be alive if former President Donald Trump had been commander-in-chief when his son was deployed in Afghanistan.

  “The only reason why I was even all right with my kid joining the military—because, like I told you I was against it—was because Donald Trump was the president,” he said.

  The memories flooded back as President Biden touted his tenure.

  From the Democrats dressed all in white to signify pro-abortion, to President Biden mispronouncing Laken Riley’s name in response to Rep. Marjorie Greene’s (R-Ga.) demand he say the name of the Georgia student brutally slain by an illegal immigrant, Mr. Nikoui described the many reasons that made him think “harder than ever” about the sacrifice of his son and the other fallen soldiers.

  He thought back to the horrifying videos Kareem had sent him during his deployment—of young Afghani children begging the soldiers to take them to America.

  “I saw this little girl just screaming, pushing herself up against the fence—screaming, ’they’ll kill me, take me with you, the bad guys are coming,” he recalled. And mothers, “throwing their babies at razor wire. And women running into the razor wire because they don’t want to be raped and killed by the Taliban.”

  

  He said Kareem, also a Christian, often spoke emotionally of how deeply pained he was by what he witnessed.

  Mr. Nikoui believes President Biden and his followers lack any understanding of that kind of pain. He said he finds it appalling that anytime someone dies or loses a loved one, the president interminably turns it into his own grief about the loss of his son Beau to cancer.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 15:10

• Putin Wins Fifth Term As Russian President With 87% Of The Vote
  Putin Wins Fifth Term As Russian President With 87% Of The Vote

  Update: It will surprise no one that Vladimir Putin secured another six years as Russia’s president – effectively ensuring that he will surpass Joseph Stalin as Russia’s longest-serving ruler should he successfully complete his latest term when he will be 77-year-old – in a bid to step up his war in Ukraine and challenge the West, with the Kremlin claiming record public support for him in a vote whose outcome was largely pre-determined even without mystery sacks of mail-in ballots arriving at 3am.

  Congratulstions to all Russia’s enemies on Vladimir Putin’s brilliant victory in the election of the President of the Russian Federation! And a thank you to friends for the support

  — Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) March 17, 2024

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  Putin won 87%, according to an exit poll broadcast on state television late Sunday, shortly after the end of three days of voting. That exceeded the previous high of 77% support that the incumbent president received in 2018 elections, according to Bloomberg.

  Russian State Media is showing Exit Polls from the ongoing Presidential Election, with current President Vladimir Putin receiving upwards of 87% of the Vote likely Securing his Presidency until at least 2030. pic.twitter.com/IrVSwj8HqO

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 17, 2024

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  Three other candidates, all from parties loyal to the Kremlin, received no more than 5% support. Nearly 4.5 million people voted online in a system used in 29 of Russia’s regions for the first time in a presidential election, the Interfax news service reported, citing government data.

  Preliminary turnout was 74.22% – the largest in over 3 decades – according to Central Election Commission data shown on state TV. That turnout was the highest since Boris Yeltsin became president in 1991 after the Soviet Union’s collapse, and well above the 67.5% turnout recorded in 2018. At least six Russian regions claimed turnout was above 90%.

  Of note, according to the CEC, Putin received 94.12% of the votes after processing 100% of the protocols in the presidential elections of the Russian Federation in the Lugansk People’s Republic, which is located in the contest Donetsk region.

  Putin is extending his nearly quarter-century rule into a fifth term at a time when his troops are on the offensive in Ukraine. Russia’s pressing its advantage in the third year of the invasion that’s become Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II, as Ukraine struggles to supply its forces with munitions amid delays in military aid from its US and European allies.

  The election outcome “gives Putin every chance to implement any, even the toughest, scenarios in Ukraine,” said Pavel Danilin, head of the Moscow-based Center for Political Analysis, which advises the Kremlin. The “historically high result is a guarantee that the majority of the population supports Putin,” he said.

  Putin’s victory comes as Russia’s economy has fully weathered the shock of international sanctions since it began the February 2022 invasion, thanks to a continuing flow of energy revenue – which the west has been terrified to halt as it would mean a surge in global energy prices and a rout for Biden in the November 2024 elections – and a massive injection of government spending to support the defense industry and shield domestic businesses. Meanwhile, trade with China is booming as Russia reorients its economy away from markets in Europe.

  As noted above, Russia organized voting in occupied areas of Ukraine and that claimed turnout far exceeded 80%, even as millions of people have fled the regions since the invasion. The foreign ministry in Kyiv said the “pseudo-elections” were illegal, by which they probably mean they were not predetermined by neocon demi-god Victoria Nuland, or whoever it is that will replace her in the Deep State.

   

  * * *

  Earlier:

  The first round of the presidential election in Russia is taking place from Friday to Sunday this weekend.

  It will be the country’s eighth presidential election and more than 112 million voters will be called to the polls.

  While four candidates are in the running, Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports that there is almost no doubt among observers that Vladimir Putin will be re-elected for a fifth term in the first round.

  The only real unknown is the share of votes he will receive.

  During the last presidential election in 2018, this number stood at around 77 percent.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  In power for around a quarter of a century – spanning four presidential terms and two terms as prime minister between 1999 and 2000 and between 2008 and 2012 – Putin has spent a total of almost 9,000 days at the helm of the country. If he is re-elected this weekend, the ensuing six-year term of approximately 2,190 days will likely make him Russia’s longest serving leader since the start of the twentieth century. This record is currently held by Joseph Stalin, who led the country between 1924 and 1953 for a total of 10,636 days. Putin became Russia’s second longest-serving leader overtaking Brezhnev in 2017 late into his third term as president.

  During Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency from 2008 to 2012, Russian law was amended to extend presidential terms from two terms of four years to two terms of six years.

  This change was also designed to reset terms served and therefore enabled Putin to win another two terms.

  A decade later, in 2021, Putin signed another law setting the limit at two presidential mandates per person in a lifetime, again paradoxically resetting terms already served and thereby exempting him for a second time.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 15:05

• Molotov Cocktail Attack On Russian Embassy In Moldova On Last Day Of Election
  Molotov Cocktail Attack On Russian Embassy In Moldova On Last Day Of Election

  Sunday is the final day of three days of presidential elections in Russia. Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of deceased opposition activist Alexei Navalny, is urging mass protests against President Putin as he stands of the verge of winning another six year term as president, an outcome quite obvious to all observers. She’s calling on Russians to disrupt the final day of voting in what’s been dubbed “noon against Putin”. 

  While some sporadic minor incidents at polling stations have been reported, there has been a major incident in the small country of Moldova which borders Ukraine. Moldovan police have detained a man who attacked the Russian embassy with two Molotov cocktails as voting was underway there.

  

  “A man threw two containers of flammable substances over the fence of the Russian Embassy in Chisinau,” police said in a statement. A 54-year-old Moldovan who described himself as also having Russian citizenship was immediately detained after after hurling the Molotov cocktails.

  There were no reports of injuries or damage to the embassy, and police said an investigation is ongoing. “He justified his action by some dissatisfaction he has with the actions of the Russian authorities,” authorities said.

  Moldova has been scene of controversy and friction especially after Russia allowed the opening of several polling stations in breakaway Transnistria, which the Moldovan government has fiercely protested.

  Reuters noted days ago that “A senior official in ex-Soviet Moldova said on Wednesday Moscow was breaking laws by printing ballot papers in the separatist region of Transnistria ahead of this week’s Russian presidential election.”

  “Moldova’s pro-European authorities have already summoned the Russian ambassador to complain about a decision to open six polling stations in the pro-Russian enclave,” the report continued. “The central government said the move broke an agreement to allow voting only at a single polling station at the Russian embassy in Chisinau.”

  

  The United States recently become more vocal in defending Moldova’s territorial integrity, and has condemned what the Biden administration has called Moscow’s ‘interference’ in the Eastern European nation’s sovereignty.

  Last summer, Moldova expelled 45 Russian diplomats and embassy staff members from the country “over numerous unfriendly actions” as tensions reached near breaking point over the war in neighboring Ukraine and the Transnistria issue. As for Russia’s election, Kremlin authorities have said Ukraine is engaged in cross-border attacks on polling stations and in annexed regions of Ukraine.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 14:35

• The Stain Of Fani: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp Signs Law To Discipline 'Rogue' Prosecutors Amid DA Willis Controversy
  The Stain Of Fani: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp Signs Law To Discipline ‘Rogue’ Prosecutors Amid DA Willis Controversy

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has signed a bill into law that revives an oversight panel with powers to discipline and remove wayward county prosecutors, and which could potentially target alleged misconduct by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis in her case against former President Donald Trump.

  

  Mr. Kemp signed SB 332 into law on March 13, saying at a signing ceremony that the community suffers and property is put at risk when “out-of-touch” public prosecutors put politics ahead of public safety.

  “This legislation will help us ensure rogue or incompetent prosecutors are held accountable if they refuse to uphold the law,” Mr. Kemp said.

  “As we know all too well, crime has been on the rise across the country, and is especially prevalent in cities where prosecutors are giving criminals a free pass or failing to put them behind bars due to lack of professional conduct,” he added.

  Mr. Kemp initially signed related legislation in May 2023, which established the Prosecuting Attorneys Qualifications Commission (PACQ), with the governor saying at the time that the panel would discipline “far-left” prosecutors who make communities less safe by being soft on crime.

  However, the panel was unable to start operating after the state Supreme Court in November 2023 declined to approve rules for its governance, with justices saying in their ruling that they had “grave doubts” whether adopting the standards and rules was within their constitutional powers.

  So the Georgia General Assembly passed HB 881 in January 2024, which revived the oversight panel while removing the requirement for Supreme Court approval. The bill then was referred to the state Senate, where it became SB 332.

  Focus on Willis

  While the bill mirrored efforts in other states to hold “rogue” prosecutors accountable for refusing to prosecute certain crimes, Democrats opposed to its passage said it could be used to target prosecutors involved in the case against President Trump, including Ms. Willis.

  “The commission will be able to unilaterally proceed and have the ability to interfere and undermine an ongoing investigation against Donald J. Trump,” state House Minority Whip Sam Park, a Democrat, told The Associated Press when the House version of the measure passed.

  “You are taking action to protect former President Trump from an ongoing criminal prosecution,” he alleged.

  Ms. Willis has been accused of an “improper” relationship with Nathan Wade, a special prosecutor in the election interference case against the former president and over a dozen co-defendants. She also faced conflict-of-interest allegations that she benefited from the relationship financially.

  While defendants in the case moved to have both prosecutors disqualified, Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee ruled on Friday that either Mr. Wade or Ms. Willis must remove themselves from the case.

  Mr. Wade said Friday that he would resign, leaving Ms. Willis—who faces a separate campaign finance ethics probe and possible contempt of Congress proceedings—at the helm of the case, which President Trump has denounced as a politically-driven “witch hunt.”

  The prosecutor oversight panel that Mr. Kemp’s signature has established provides an additional tool that could target Ms. Willis as she faces continued scrutiny.

  Ms. Willis’ office did not respond to a request for comment on the bill.

  Georgia House Speaker Jon Burns, a Republican, told The Associated Press that the measure isn’t directly focused on Ms. Willis or any one individual.

  “For us in the House our focus is not on any one person, not on any one situation,” Mr. Burns told reporters after Mr. Kemp signed the bill into law. “It’s about asking the folks that are elected, just like me, to do their jobs and protect the citizens of this state.”

  Fight Against ‘Rogue’ Prosecutors

  Georgia law mandates that a prosecutor must consider every case for which probable cause exists and can’t exclude categories of cases—such as marijuana possession or abortion-related offenses—from prosecution.

  HB 881 and its Senate version SB 332 lay out grounds for discipline, removal, or “involuntary retirement” of wayward prosecutors, including for engaging in “willful misconduct” or for being convicted of a “crime involving moral turpitude” or persistently failing to carry out their duties.

  Besides removing the need for Supreme Court oversight, the law adjusts the standard for mental or physical incapacity, allows appeals to a local superior court judge, and permits appeals to any county where the prosecutor has worked.

  The establishment of the new commission comes as Republicans fight against what they describe as leftist “rogue” district attorneys who refuse to prosecute certain crimes.

  “The inability to ensure public safety and protect communities is occurring at every level of state government,” U.S. Reps. Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Scott Fitzgerald (R-Wis.) wrote in an op-ed in 2022.

  “By cracking down on rogue prosecutors who favor criminals over victims, we can ensure that no one else is put in harm’s way as a result of Democrats’ negligence,” they wrote. 

  In much the same vein, President Trump has vowed to target prosecutors who are lax on crime if he wins the 2024 presidential race.

  “Soros prosecutors appear to be engaging in selective enforcement based on illegal racial discrimination” in places such as Chicago, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, President Trump said in a video posted to his YouTube channel in April 2023.

  He was referring to left-wing billionaire financier George Soros, who has provided millions of dollars in campaign contributions to progressives Democrat district attorneys.

  “They are Marxist in many cases,” President Trump said, while pledging to appoint about 100 U.S. attorneys who are the “polar opposite” of the “Soros district attorneys and others being appointed around the United States.”

  President Trump said that those officials will be the “most ferocious legal warriors” who will target the worst “communist corruption” the country has ever seen.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 14:00

• Rare Drone Attack On Military Base In Breakaway Pro-Russian Republic Of Transnistria
  Rare Drone Attack On Military Base In Breakaway Pro-Russian Republic Of Transnistria

  An unprecedented or at least extremely rare attack has just targeted a military base in the pro-Russian breakaway Moldovan republic of Transnistria on Sunday.

  A kamikaze drone hit a military base in Tiraspol, the capital of unrecognized Transnistria, local officials have told RIA Novosti. The attack reportedly resulted in fire and damage to military assets at the airfield, but there were no casualties.

  

  Russian state media said a helicopter stationed at the airfield was destroyed in the UAV attack. Presumably the helicopter belonged to either Transnistria separatists or to the Russian military.

  “Today a fire occurred on the territory of a military base in Tiraspol as a result of an explosion,” local authorities were cited in AFP as saying.

  “It was preliminarily established that the explosion was caused by a kamikaze drone attack,” they added, and alleged the drone launched from the Odesa region. They are blaming Ukraine forces for the rare cross-border attack.

  The incident was not immediately confirmed either by the Russian or Ukraine governments. “Grainy footage distributed by separatist authorities showed a projectile slamming into a military helicopter standing at an airbase surrounded by fields,” AFP noted.

  Close-up footage of the Mi-8 helicopter in Transnistria being attacked by a drone pic.twitter.com/QMekkx47jO

  — Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) March 17, 2024

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Regardless of the AFP headline which says Breakaway Moldova Region Blames Military Site Blast On Drone From Ukraine… there remain conflicting reports on the origin point of the drone launch.

  Russia’s RT writes, “Transnistria’s state security ministry alleged that the drone arrived from the so-called “Clover Bridge” area – a major multi-level highway junction located north of the city of Tiraspol and close to the Ukrainian border.” Further the report notes that “The unrecognized republic’s authorities have not named any suspects behind the incident so far.”

  As we previously wrote in a backgrounder here, in 2006, a Transnistrian double referendum was held gauging popular support for the separatist state’s appetite to either renounce its independence and join the Republic Of Moldova or to maintain it and seek to join the Russian Federation. The referendum to become part of Moldova was rejected by 96% of voters while 98% approved of becoming part of Russia.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 13:25

• This Week Seemed Like A Crazy Market, On Steroids
  This Week Seemed Like A Crazy Market, On Steroids

  By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

  What’s the Record for Shortest Time from All-Time Highs to Bear Market?

  That seems like such a strange question. If all you did was read the headlines, you would think that things were great (if not spectacular) in markets. If you say you are bearish, people will look at you with sympathy, wondering if you are going to be able to feed your family with such a disastrous call.

  Yet, the reality of the situation is quite different from what the headlines seem to be trying to spoon feed us on a daily basis.

  The Nasdaq 100, which was down on the week, is down 1% since February 9th. Yes, it had its closing high on March 1st, and its intraday high of 18,417 on March 8th. But 5 weeks, with a lot of hype and cheerleading, has amounted to a loss of 1%. Since the highs, we are down 3%, which is one of many things that have me wondering how quickly we’ve fallen from “all-time highs” to bear market? While 20% is a tad more bearish than I am, it sounded better than using a “correction” of 10% in the title.

  The S&P 500 has performed more steadily than the Nasdaq 100, but at the other end of the spectrum, despite begging people to Stop Using the Magnificent 7 Moniker, we still hear that term quite frequently. Yes, some people have started talking about the Fab 4 or some other catchy phrase, but that makes sense when at least a couple of the so-called Mag 7 are back to levels from October, before the big bull market started (a time when we were quite bullish, possibly fighting consensus back then too).

  Where We’ve Been Recently

  We’ve been bearish, but with an emphasis that we felt the risk of a 5% to 10% rapid move to the downside was far more likely than a sharp rally. We’ve discussed aspects of this in:

  • Trillion Dollar Mistakes. Highlighting some big mistakes made in the overall market, while questioning if Wall Street, for all its foibles, was really likely to have been that wrong?

  • The Time to Retire report, referenced earlier, highlighted a series of market behaviors and charts that were making us increasingly nervous about the risk/reward of the market and forcing us to lean to the “cautious and need to hedge” side of things.

  • It’s Friday, I’m in Love examined the week ending March 1st, highlighting some of the things that helped propel stocks higher that Friday. As I re-read that, many of the positives have dissipated, been priced in, or in the case of AI “deputization,” are starting to be questioned. If it hadn’t been for the SOX Index (semiconductors) we wouldn’t have achieved these all-time highs, and that index has started to roll over. In a market with limited leadership, that could be problematic.

  • While more of a “longer-term” trade, everything about Made By China is likely to be negative for our markets and economy.

  While those have helped articulate and explain our bearish view, they are all relatively recent (the oldest was published on February 27th). We should go back to one more article to express why the view has changed from a DEFCON 3 or 4 sort of bearishness, to a more dangerous and urgent DEFCON 2 level of bearishness.

  Back on February 9th we published A Market Only a Mother or AI Could Love. That chart showed the “crazy” trading pattern of the week. So many wild swings. Gyrations, some of which could be attributed to news, but some of which seemed inexplicable.

  This week seemed like that, on steroids! I think I actually physically poked my screen once to make sure it was working. I swear, the market was up almost 1%, I glanced away, it was down 1%, and then a few minutes later it was back to flat. I’m not sure what tapping my screen would do, but I could remember doing that when a thermometer didn’t seem to be working, so it seemed appropriate.

  But no, my screen was working just fine – it was the markets that weren’t functioning “normally” in my opinion.

  It seemed that every “big” order just caused the market to gap higher or lower while the order was being filled. It did work in both directions, but I’m increasingly convinced the risk is that the market will need to find some serious bidside liquidity, when it may be non-existent.

  Where We’ve Been In the Past

  All of this is forcing me to think about some things we’ve discussed in the past, which are rapidly rising to the forefront of my thoughts again.

  While aging myself, yet again, I cannot help but think about the Tacoma Narrows Bridge. A fun “movie” many of us got to watch in school. This was back when someone had to bring in a projector and seeing a video in class was a “cool” thing (though not as cool as getting the whole school to watch the Canada Cup in the gym). But anyways, that video shows a bridge oscillating. That oscillation increases until, ultimately, it collapses! The movie was all about resonance frequency, but all I remember is seeing a structure, so seemingly sturdy, start to bend and twist before collapsing. The first time that hit me was back in 2007 and it is the main image I have in my mind right now.

  It also made me think about pendulums. In Dredging Up Pendulums, we focused primarily on the complexity of a simple pendulum versus a double pendulum, and how important even tiny changes in starting conditions could be.

  We also discussed Machine Learning Triple Pendulums. This YouTube video shows how a computer is able to manipulate a “cart” to get a triple pendulum to stand upright for a period of time. For about a decade, I’ve been using that when discussing market mechanics. It is difficult to tell what exactly happens day by day, or even minute by minute, when so much of the trading is driven by algorithms. The algorithms link not just “vehicles” (like stocks, ETFs, and futures), but also asset classes as correlations are traded rapidly. The reason thinking about market structure in terms of a machine learning triple pendulum cart is so important (if it is a correct interpretation) is that “functioning” or holding it upright is very unstable and takes more computing power and skill than a human possesses. Yet, it can be accomplished. The problem is that when it fails, it tends to result in an “epic” failure where the “natural” position of the pendulums (all pulled by gravity) is to be facing down rather than standing upright. Sure, maybe a bit alarmist, but we’ve seen it in the past. A VIX related ETF Went Poof.

  What Changed This Week

  One thing that changed is the “randomness” of trading seemed to accelerate, forcing me to think about bridges and pendulums. I also cannot stop thinking about some of the charts we included in A Retrospective of All-Time Highs. While many of the bears (and doomers) want to talk about “tech bubbles,” I’m more fixated on 2007. To me, the 2007 “all-time high” was one of the strangest ones.

  

  All the problems were known. None had been fixed, but we hit an all-time high, based largely on the Fed. We bounced hard again after JPM bought Bear, only to sink to new lows a week or so after Lehman. Those “lows” seemed tame compared to where the market finally bottomed in 2009, but it was the almost “hubris” of all-time highs in the autumn of 2007 that I think about more than the tech bubble, as I don’t think that is the right metric. Though as a bear, who is increasingly worried about a 10% pullback, I shouldn’t look a gift horse in the mouth.

  But here are things that have made me increasingly nervous:

  • Bond yields.

    • I’ll start with longer dated bond yields as they are more fun. The 10-year Treasury yield got back to 4.31% on Friday. Treasuries rallied, much to my chagrin, last time we got here, but they seem susceptible to moving higher again. China will NOT be buying Treasuries as they are raising their own debt to figure out how to spend their way out of their economic problems. FXI, a China ETF, did finish higher on the week, in a story that remains poorly covered, and is why I continue to like – for a trade – long FXI, short QQQ. I’ve been expecting to see another march to higher yields like we saw last fall. The 10-year yield moved higher each and every day last week – a sign of things to come?

    • The Fed is getting pushed out of the picture. The first cut is expected in June, with a chance of it getting pushed to July. The market is still pricing in cuts at the September and November meetings (which I think is insane given how every issue, including monetary policy, is fodder for campaigns that seem as much about generating anger as hope). We are still at 3 cuts for the year, but I think there is a chance that the Fed changes the dots just a smidge (given all the inflation data) to show fewer than 3 cuts. That, or a change in next year’s expected end rate, could be punishing.

    • The move in yields, at the longer end, has not reflected increased term premium. Minimal (if any) concerns about the never-ending growth of federal debt, as the spread between 2s and 10s closed at -42 bps. I see no reason why this doesn’t get back to recent “best” levels of -20 or so, with my target for the summer being flat yield curves as risk premium returns and we see an end to the era of inversion everywhere you look.

  • Inflation and oil. It is clear that inflation, by a variety of measures, is “sticky.” A couple of things, actually a few things, bother me most.

    • Lots of “apologizing” about Owners Equivalent Rent. If you’ve read the T-Report for long, you know how much I hate how we calculated shelter. So yes, right now, it is overstating the current rise in shelter – BUT IT IS DOING THAT BECAUSE THE RISE WAS NEVER FULLY PRICED IN! Sorry for the “all caps” but yes, today’s inflation is likely overstated, but only because officially we under-reported it. Yes, this is a rant, but it probably goes beyond those dismissing rent.

    • Beyond dismissing rent. Most consumers think in terms of dollars. We live in a “nominal world.” So something that rose 10% a few years ago went from say $100 to $110. Now it “only” rose 3%, but it is 3% on a much larger starting point, creating a much higher dollar increase than it would have a few years ago. Add to that all the people who have been arguing that the prices they see in stores don’t seem to get used in official calculations and all the “substitutions” incorporated into the calculations artificially kept inflation lower. Basically, the real-world level of current inflation may never have been captured by the official data, leaving more room to catch up.

    • Oil. Energy prices contributed to recent rises in inflation. Apparently, many seem confident they will go back down. With no end in sight to the war in Ukraine and the Middle East edging closer and closer to direct involvement with Iran, that does not seem like a bet I’d be comfortable with. I do like the energy sector, so I’m biased, but I think it is too early to dismiss the geopolitical risks associated with oil.

  • The U.S. consumer has been like a zombie for anyone betting against the U.S. economy. They just keep coming back to life. No matter what you think you’ve done, they seem to come back! Well, I think the consumer is rolling over. Debt is mounting. The job market is far from robust and has lost all of the momentum it had. It is at best “normal” like the years before COVID, and that might be a stretch.

  While I don’t see “stagflation as a risk,” I think we are entering a period where we could see:

  • Higher yields coupled with a weakening economy and a Fed that is handcuffed by persistent inflation. Not a good mix.

  • In addition to a market positioned too aggressively that cannot expect much help from short covering.

  While I don’t want to get into detail today, I think people staring at the VIX are looking in the wrong direction. This is a world of daily and weekly option flows that don’t show up in the VIX calculation. Unlike other strategies that have been difficult to understand (meme stocks for example), the 0DTE options market seems perfectly capable of trading from the call side of the market to the put side of the market. Many other strategies, like blindly selling vol, have tended to work in one direction and could really only be traded consistently from that direction. The 0DTE can work both ways and that could be the “shock” we need that disrupts this market.

  For credit, look for CDX IG to go back above 60, maybe to 65. Not because of any serious problems in credit, but because spreads will be forced wider if I’m right on stocks.

  So, instead of thinking about a 5% to 10% pullback in stocks, I’m much more concerned about a 10% or higher pullback along with 10-year yields breaking through 4.5%.

  We didn’t answer the question posed at the start of the title, but I’m increasingly worried that we might be forced to find out what the competition is if markets start rolling over and lose the support of bonds, the Fed, and the few sectors that have done the heavy lifting.

  On that note, I do promise to write “Up in Smoke” as a title of a T-Report (I couldn’t end this report without at least trying to get you to smile!)

  Finally, Happy St. Patrick’s Day to those who celebrate!

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 03/17/2024 – 12:50

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