Today’s News 18th October 2023

• Whitehead: Postcards From A Police State – 22 Years Of Blowback From The USA Patriot Act
  Whitehead: Postcards From A Police State – 22 Years Of Blowback From The USA Patriot Act

  Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”

  – Hermann Goering, German military commander and Hitler’s designated successor

  For those who remember the days and months that followed 9/11, there is an unnerving feeling of déjà vu about the Hamas attacks on Israel.

  

  The same shocking images of carnage and grief dominating the news. The same disbelief that anyone could be so hateful, so monstrous, so evil as to do this to another human being. The same outpourings of support and unity from around the world. The same shared fear that this could easily have happened to us or our loved ones.

  Now once again the drums of war are sounding on the world stage, not that they ever really stopped. Israel is preparing to invade Gaza, the Palestinians are nearing a humanitarian crisis, and the rest of the world is bracing for whatever blowback comes next.

  Here in the United States, as we approach the 22nd anniversary of the USA Patriot Act on October 26, we’re still grappling with the blowback that arises from allowing one’s freedoms to be eviscerated in exchange for the phantom promise of security.

  Here are a few lessons that we never learned or learned too late.

  • Mammoth legislation that expands the government’s powers at the citizenry’s expense will not make anyone safer. Rushed through Congress a mere 45 days after the 9/11 attacks, the USA Patriot Act drove a stake through the heart of the Bill of Rights, undermined civil liberties, expanded the government’s powers and opened the door to far-reaching surveillance by the government on American citizens.

  • Pre-emptive strikes will only lead to further blowback. Not content to wage war against Afghanistan, which served as the base for Osama bin Laden, the U.S. embarked on a pre-emptive war against Iraq in order to “stop any adversary challenging America’s military superiority and adopt a strike-first policy against terrorist threats ‘before they’re fully formed.’” We are still suffering the consequences of this failed policy, which resulted in lives lost, taxpayer dollars wasted, the fomenting of hatred against the U.S. and the further radicalization of terrorist cells.

  • War is costly. There are many reasons to go to war, but those who have advocated that the U.S. remain at war, year after year, are the very entities that have profited most from these endless military occupations and exercises. Thus far, the U.S. taxpayer has been made to shell out more than $8 trillion to wage wars abroad, including the lifetime price of health care for disabled veterans and interest on the national debt. That also does not include the more than hundreds of thousands of civilians killed, or the millions displaced from their homes as a result of endless drone strikes and violence.

  • The tactics and weapons of war, once deployed abroad, will eventually be used against the citizenry at home. The horrors that took place at Abu Ghraib, the American-run prison in Iraq, involved “US military personnel humiliating, hurting and abusing Iraqi prisoners in a myriad of perverse ways. While American servicemen and women smiled and gave thumbs up, naked men were threatened by dogs, or were hooded, forced into sexual positions, placed standing with wires attached to their bodies, or left bleeding on prison floors.” Adding to the descent into moral depravity, the United States government legalized the use of torture, including waterboarding, in violation of international law and in the so-called pursuit of national security. The ramifications have been far-reaching, with domestic police mirroring a battlefield mindset in their encounters with American citizens, including the use of torture tactics at secret locations such as Homan Square in Chicago.

  • Allowing the government to spy on the citizenry will not reduce acts of terrorism, but it will result in a watched, submissive, surveillance society. Not only did the USA Patriot Act normalize the government’s mass surveillance powers, but it also dramatically expanded the government’s authority to spy on its own citizens without much of any oversight. Thus, a byproduct of this post 9/11-age in which we live, whether you’re walking through a store, driving your car, checking email, or talking to friends and family on the phone, you can be sure that some government agency is listening in and tracking your behavior. This doesn’t even begin to touch on the corporate trackers that monitor your purchases, web browsing, Facebook posts and other activities taking place in the cyber sphere. We have all become data collected in government files. 

  • News cycle distractions are calibrated to ensure that you lose sight of what the government is doing. The average American has a hard time keeping up with and remembering all of the “events,” manufactured or otherwise, which occur like clockwork and keep us distracted, deluded, amused, and insulated from the reality of the American police state. Whether these events are critical or unimportant, when we’re being bombarded with wall-to-wall news coverage and news cycles that change every few days, it’s difficult to stay focused on one thing—namely, holding the government accountable to abiding by the rule of law—and the powers-that-be understand this. In this way, regularly scheduled trivia and/or distractions that keep the citizenry tuned into the various breaking news headlines and entertainment spectacles also keep them tuned out to the government’s steady encroachments on their freedoms.

  • If you stop holding the government accountable to the rule of law, the only laws it abides by will be the ones used to clamp down on the citizenry. Having failed to hold government officials accountable to abiding by the rule of law, the American people have found themselves saddled with a government that skirts, flouts and violates the Constitution with little consequence. Overcriminalization, asset forfeiture schemes, police brutality, profit-driven prisons, warrantless surveillance, SWAT team raids, indefinite detentions, covert agencies, and secret courts are just a few of the egregious practices carried out by a government that operates beyond the reach of the law.

  • Do not turn your country into a battlefield, your citizens into enemy combatants, and your law enforcement officers into extensions of the military. A standing army—something that propelled the early colonists into revolution—strips the citizenry of any vestige of freedom. How can there be any semblance of freedom when there are tanks in the streets, military encampments in cities, Blackhawk helicopters and armed drones patrolling overhead? It was for this reason that those who established America vested control of the military in a civilian government, with a civilian commander-in-chief. They did not want a military government, ruled by force. Rather, they opted for a republic bound by the rule of law: the U.S. Constitution. Unfortunately, we in America now find ourselves struggling to retain some semblance of freedom in the face of police and law enforcement agencies that look and act like the military and have just as little regard for the Fourth Amendment, laws such as the NDAA that allow the military to arrest and indefinitely detain American citizens, and military drills that acclimate the American people to the sight of armored tanks in the streets, military encampments in cities, and combat aircraft patrolling overhead.

  • As long as you remain fearful and distrustful of each other, you will be incapable of standing united against any threats posed by a power-hungry government. Early on, U.S. officials solved the problem of how to implement their authoritarian policies without incurring a citizen uprising: fear. The powers-that-be want us to feel threatened by forces beyond our control (terrorists, shooters, bombers). They want us afraid and dependent on the government and its militarized armies for our safety and well-being. Most of all, they want us distrustful of each other, divided by our prejudices, and at each other’s throats.

  • Once you trade your freedom for security, the terrorists win. We’ve walked a strange and harrowing road since September 11, 2001, littered with the debris of our once-vaunted liberties. We have gone from a nation that took great pride in being a model of a representative democracy to being a model of how to persuade a freedom-loving people to march in lockstep with a police state. And in so doing, we have proven Osama Bin Laden right. He warned that “freedom and human rights in America are doomed. The U.S. government will lead the American people in — and the West in general — into an unbearable hell and a choking life.”

  It took a long time to clear away the rubble from the 9/11 attacks.

  Yet as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, 22 years after the USA Patriot Act was unleashed on a vulnerable nation, we are still reeling from the destruction it has wrought on our freedoms.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 23:25

• They Bought A Ranch To Help Veterans, Then Came An Unexpected 'Green Tax' Bill
  They Bought A Ranch To Help Veterans, Then Came An Unexpected ‘Green Tax’ Bill

  Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Dark thunderstorm clouds parted and a double rainbow appeared just as a family pulled up at Heroes Ridge at Raven Rock, home of Operation Second Chance, a nonprofit retreat that benefits wounded veterans and their families.

  “We thought we were entering heaven,” a family member said upon arrival, according to Cindy McGrew, the founder and CEO of Operation Second Chance.

  

  The picturesque mountaintop on the border of Maryland and Pennsylvania in the Blue Ridge Mountains really is a slice of heaven, Ms. McGrew told The Epoch Times; it’s meant to help heal spirits broken by trauma experienced during military service.

  Operation Second Chance hosts battle buddies, caregivers, families, groups, and individuals from around the United States in cabins accessible for amputees and wheelchair users.

  The experience is free for guests, including travel expenses, activities, and food. The organization also provides grants to wounded veterans facing financial struggles, helping with house and car payments, medical supplies, and emergency assistance.

  The Mason-Dixon line runs through the property, a former church camp, and nearby Camp David, the presidential retreat, can be seen in one direction. From a wooded peak in another direction, veterans can sit by a bonfire overlooking the iconic Gettysburg battlegrounds, watch the sun go down, and talk with others who understand what they have seen, what they face, and how they feel.

  But, since Operation Second Chance bought the property in 2020, more dark clouds have loomed over Heroes Ridge. Two years after the organization bought the property, an unexpected tax bill arrived from Adams County, Pennsylvania.

  The bill, for more than $92,000, is the sum of a seven-year claw-back of a property tax discount through Pennsylvania’s Clean and Green Environmental tax break program.

  

  Clean and Green

  Heroes Ridge is a 275-acre, mostly wooded property with 25 acres in Frederick County, Maryland and the rest in Adams County. The Frederick County portion is tax-exempt because Operation Second Chance is a nonprofit. But Adams County hasn’t granted the same exemption.

  “We purchased this property in October of 2020, cleaned up the buildings that were already here, made them livable again and brought life back to them,” Ms. McGrew said. 

  “Then last year, 2022, just a few days before Thanksgiving, I received a call saying it was a courtesy call because we were going to get a tax bill for just over $92,000. 

  “I said ‘well, that’s impossible because we did a title search, and there was no money owed on the property, and we’re paid up on our taxes.’ And they said ‘No, the property came out of Clean and Green when you purchased it.’ And I had no idea what that meant.”

  The Pennsylvania Farmland and Forest Land Assessment Act is a state law that allows qualifying land devoted to agricultural or forest use to be assessed at lower than fair market value through the Clean and Green land preservation program. It’s intended to encourage property owners to keep most of their land in agricultural, open space, or forest, and not develop it. The program provides real estate tax relief and is favored by owners of large tracts of land.

  The previous owner put the land in the Clean and Green program for forest preservation in 2011 and paid a lower tax rate, according to records from the Adams County Register and Recorder’s Office. Ms. McGrew continued to pay at that rate until she received that phone call.

  The tax bill came with a fine for non-payment of $588 a day, Ms. McGrew said, which came to about $17,600 a month. Attorney Joseph Erb of Hanover, Pennsylvania, advised her to pay the bill to avoid racking up more fines and to then ask the county to return the money.

  

  By then, Operation Second Chance owed more than $93,000, so Ms. McGrew wrote a check to Adams County and paid the bill.

  “I told them, you have just prevented me from providing emergency assistance to 50 to 70 families. Most donations are intended to go to the veterans, not to pay back taxes.”

  Ms. McGrew is now asking for the money to be given back to the nonprofit. The Adams County Commissioners recently held a hearing on the matter and are expected to give their decision in mid-November.

  “We just feel like it’s the right thing to do, to give the money back,” Ms. McGrew said. “I’m praying. I’ve lost so much sleep over this, and I’ve cried. I woke up in the night crying. And finally, one day, I looked at the tax bill, and I put it in my Bible, and I said Lord, I’m giving this to you because I can’t worry about this anymore. I know things happen in his time. I’m praying that we get that tax money back so we can help other veterans.”

  Operation Second Chance tightened its budget and cut some programs this year to account for the tax bill.

  Normally, it gives $35,000 in scholarship money to high school seniors who have an injured family member, but this year it gave $10,000 in scholarship money. It also paid less in emergency financial assistance this year.

  “It takes a lot to run this retreat center. We pay for everything for the veterans to come here. We pay for their flights—they’re coming from all over the country. There’s no cost to the veterans to come here. We want them to come here and be relaxed and just spend time bonding together, enjoying themselves.”

  Tax Dispute

  When a buyer purchases a property already enrolled in Clean and Green, they must update the program’s application with their information, which usually triggers an additional review of the status, Adams County Solicitor Sean Mott told The Epoch Times. The review determines if the property has had a change of use that could take the land out of the program and trigger a seven-year rollback of the amount of taxes that weren’t paid due to the discount.

  

  “In this case, it appears that the Tax Service Department sent a letter to Operation Second Chance on December 8th, 2020, indicating that they would need to file an amended application to determine whether the land continued to be used in accordance with Clean and Green,” Mr. Mott said. “That letter went unanswered, and so a second letter was sent on May 25, 2022, which also went unanswered.”

  Ms. McGrew said she never received those letters, but in August of 2022, someone from the county tax office visited Operation Second Chance with a letter in hand regarding Clean and Green. That letter did not have the right address, she said, and was not addressed to the right person. She asked him to check his records, address them properly, and mail them to Operation Second Chance.

  In Pennsylvania, exemption from taxation is allowed under two categories of landowners: religious organizations that use property for worship and “purely public charities,” so long as the land is actually used in furtherance of their charitable mission.

  Operation Second Chance applied in 2022 for a tax exemption under the Institution of Purely Public Charity Act, Mr. Mott said, “Which was only granted in part, as they were only able to provide evidence of charitable use (i.e., the veterans retreat) for 26.95 acres of the roughly 250 acres (most of which is undeveloped). So, 26.95 acres of the total property are completely exempt from property taxes.”

  

  Now, Adams County considers the land on which the buildings are located as a nonprofit and exempt from taxes, but the undeveloped land—which Clean and Green seeks to preserve as forested land—is not being used enough by Operation Second Chance to qualify for the nonprofit tax exemption.

  “Essentially, the activity that qualified Operation Second Chance for tax exemption under the Institutions of Purely Public Charity Act was an ineligible use under the Clean & Green Law,” Mr. Mott said. 

  “However, even though a rollback was assessed for ineligible use under Clean and Green, Operation Second Chance was able to re-enroll that portion of the property that did not qualify for full exemption (about 220 acres), beginning in 2024. So, roughly 27 acres are fully exempt from taxation for charitable purposes, and 220 acres will receive preferential tax treatment under Clean and Green.”

  The Veterans

  In 2004, Ms. McGrew started visiting wounded veterans in Bethesda, Maryland, at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. Her brothers had served in Vietnam, and she vowed that she would always care for veterans.

  At Walter Reed, she stood in for parents and spouses of the wounded when they could not be there, holding hands, listening to their concerns, and filling various needs that came up, such as purchasing a playpen for a visiting baby. Her coworkers handed her money and said, “Give this to your veterans.”

  This morphed into Operation Second Chance, allowing Ms. McGrew to help more veterans. Since its start, Operation Second Chance has provided more than $9 million in assistance to veterans and their families through public donations.

  “We’ve got guys and gals that are surviving catastrophic injuries that they would not have survived in previous wars,” Ms. McGrew said. 

  “Some are from rural America, they want to get out of a bad situation by joining the military, or they are very patriotic and wanted to take a stand and fight for our country. If they’re wounded, they only get a percentage of that pay for life. If you saw their paycheck, for many of them, it’s not enough to live on. If you’re in Montgomery County, Maryland, for instance, you could not live on $1,700 a month, and that’s what some will make. It depends on their rank. I don’t have all the answers for that, but I know if [the nation] were doing our job, you wouldn’t need nonprofits.”

  Many veterans wait until the last minute to ask for help, she said, hoping something in their circumstances will change.

  Visitors to Heroes Ridge enter a gravel lane through an electronic security gate and drive about a mile uphill before cresting at the mountaintop where the main activities are located. There are several cabins for families, a recreation building, a chow hall, a main house and pool, and an outdoor arena for horses. An indoor horse-riding arena is planned where the outdoor arena is located so they can continue their horse program in all weather.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 22:45

• It’s Time To Overhaul FOIA
  It’s Time To Overhaul FOIA

  Authored by  Curtis Schube & Gary Lawkowski via RealClear Wire,

  When it comes to the federal government and responding to Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests, it is so commonplace for federal agencies to drag their feet and not provide fully responsive documentation that it is not even newsworthy when those agencies do not comply with the law. Instead, they miss deadlines and redact perfectly responsive and unprivileged information. This runs contrary to the purpose of FOIA, which is to allow citizens access to the activities of their government.

  

  Numerous examples abound, as evidenced by the fact that the number of FOIA cases being taken to court has ballooned over the past decade. Perhaps this is because, in this era of mistrust in our government, the number of requests has also increased dramatically. Agencies have responded in kind by demanding more from requesters. They are expected to know, and say, the correct combination of buzzwords (even officials’ email addresses at times!). This requires fluency with the agency’s inner workings, which all but the most sophisticated requesters do not have.

  While FOIA has seen several reform efforts over the years, and several agencies have made small regulatory changes, few if any of these changes tend to make a dent. For instance, in 2016 Congress amended FOIA to establish an enhanced harm standard for agency redactions that was intended to limit abuse of the nine exemptions available to protect particularly sensitive, private, or deliberative information.

  The amendment required agencies to conduct the harm analysis down to the sentence and even further. A few agencies took the reforms to heart, but for the stat, requesters still overwhelmingly receive large swaths of documents completely blacked out with conclusory statements citing one of the nine exemptions (i.e., virtually no attempt to segregate and produce all responsive parts of records).

  From an agency’s perspective, the increased FOIA burden is often seen as a pointless distraction that devours scarce resources and whose noncompliance presents little to no consequences. The 2016 amendment – hailed as one of the most robust in the law’s history – bears this out. Reforms that don’t recognize and address agency incentives are doomed to fail. While requesters want greater transparency, federal bureaucrats typically just desire less work.

  To this effect, we have identified a series of reforms that attempt to change agency incentives at the individual level, reduce backlogs for the most frequently requested records, and impose uniformity where there is arbitrary decision-making.       

  One such mechanism is a dramatic expansion of proactive disclosure obligations to include the administrative record (which provides the rationale for government decisions), senior officials’ calendars and external communications (which shows outside influences on their actions), ethics records (which show potential conflicts of interest), and settlement agreements (which show the details of settlements between government and public interest groups). All of these records are vital to transparency and are a source of burden for the agencies (both in the search and production phases, as well as in the often unavoidable litigation phase). To be successful, agency compliance must be automatic and not subject to record custodians’ whims or bureaucrats’ prioritization with other incoming requests or duties.

  Forcing agencies to take ownership over FOIA request backlogs, including consequences for noncompliance, would incentivize compliance. Reform could include limiting non-essential travel, such as conference attendance, unless FOIA request backlogs are caught up. Also, forcing the agencies to participate more actively in FOIA noncompliance litigation, rather than passing off the litigation to the Department of Justice, would force the agencies to take ownership of FOIA compliance.

  Another problem is inconsistency among agencies, which lends credence to concerns of arbitrary hurdles being erected that reduce transparency. The same request can be sent to two different agencies. One response may be forthcoming, while the other restricts access to the same types of records. A simple solution could be an estoppel system whereby when one agency responds to a particular record, precedent is set for that type of record for all federal agencies. Finally, several categories of records unique to certain agencies, such as immigration or social security records, constitute a disproportionate amount of FOIA requests and could benefit from a separate process.

  These changes are both significant and common sense. They would both reduce the workload of federal agencies and increase access to government records for the people. They are neither ideological nor controversial. Liberals and conservatives alike would benefit from these policies. In environment where the need for transparency is at an all-time high, now is the time to fundamentally reform FOIA and restore the law’s original intention: transparency.

  Curtis Schube is the executive director for the Council to Modernize Governance, a think tank committed to making the administration of government more efficient, representative, and restrained. He is formerly a constitutional and administrative law attorney.

  Gary Lawkowski is a lawyer with the Dhillon Law Group, where he advises and represents clients on legal issues including matters concerning the Freedom of Information Act. He previously served in government as counselor to the secretary of the interior, senior advisor to the Domestic Policy Council, and counsel to three commissioners on the Federal Election Commission.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 22:05

• The New Hoovervilles? RV Villages And Make-Shift Tribes On The Rise As Inflation Bites
  The New Hoovervilles? RV Villages And Make-Shift Tribes On The Rise As Inflation Bites

  From 2020 to 2023, the median purchase price of homes in the US rose from $320,000 to over $420,000 – That’s a 33% increase in only 3 years.   In 2011, the average price of a home was around $200,000, meaning prices have doubled in a single decade.   The average apartment rental price in the US is now $1300 per month, compared to $1000 in 2020, and home rentals have risen to over $2000 per month on average.  The spike in the market is a reflection of inflation across the board, as well as increased demand due to more Americans being priced out of home ownership.  

  Another interesting development during the pandemic years was a considerable rush to buy RVs, vans and tiny homes.  This may have been a symptom of the authoritarian lockdowns that became a standard in blue states, leading people to relocate.  However, there is also the economic factor.  The average tiny home runs $30,000 to $60,000, with used RVs available for even less.  RV space rentals can be found for as low as $500 per month.  For those willing to sacrifice living space, the savings are alluring.  

  Inflationary crisis is pushing low income and fixed income Americans into tighter living conditions, and people are trying to adapt as best they can.  The underlying difference between economic disasters of the past like the Great Depression and the stagflation crisis of today is not the severity of the decline but the visibility of the decline.  

  In the Great Depression, the proliferation of “Hooverville” shanty towns and charity soup lines became an iconic symbol of the scale of financial calamity.  These kids of signals of collapse are not as prevalent or obvious in our era.  Soup lines have been replaced by EBT benefits and food banks, while Hoovervilles are being replaced by “Squatter Towns” made up of RV villages on the outskirts of highways and Walmart parking lots.  

  Another factor which has perhaps improved the conditions of falling home affordability is the remote work option and the “gig economy.”  A person living out of an RV or van has the ability to connect to the internet and raise funds through digital work, they can become contract workers for delivery services, or they can work a regular 9-5 job while saving money on rent and utilities.  This is not to say that the trend is ideal or that this should be the new western standard; it still represents the decline of western civilization.  But, the ugliness of economic uncertainty is far more hidden from view.    

  During the Great Depression, many people became nomadic, traveling across the country by rail or by caravan looking for better living conditions and better employment.  But the life of these nomads focused on less than ideal camp conditions, poor sanitation and poor security.  They were often the targets of criminals.  We have a version of this today in the form of “tent cities” in places like Los Angeles, but for now the RV option appears to be the dominant one.  

  Even in places as cold as Canada with limited populations, RV communities are popping up everywhere.  The following video gives some insight into the lives of people who are involved in such communities, either by choice or by necessity.

  One issue that stands out as paramount is the return of a kind of tribal organization.  Neighbors knowing each other and helping each other through difficult times.  The isolation of the modern world has created a kind of anti-community; a world in which no one knows anyone and mutual aid is seen as unsavory.  Economic crisis has a tendency to force societies back to their origins and tribalism might be making a comeback as a fundamental of survival.      

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 21:45

• How COVID Vaccine Could Harm Your Gut, Leading To Brain Fog And Autoimmune Disease
  How COVID Vaccine Could Harm Your Gut, Leading To Brain Fog And Autoimmune Disease

  Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Diarrhea, constipation, and bloating are common problems that plague two-thirds of Americans.

  

  While gut problems are often written off as caused by poor diet and lifestyle habits, they may also be a sign of damage from infections such as COVID-19 and from COVID vaccination.

  Internal medicine physician Dr. Keith Berkowitz, who has treated 200 COVID-vaccine-injured patients, told The Epoch Times that he found gut problems widespread among long-COVID and post-vaccine patients. However, patients often fail to bring up these issues.

  Also, people may not be aware that symptoms such as fatigue and brain fog could be driven by gut problems, internist Dr. Yusuf Saleeby told The Epoch Times.

  The Gut Is Linked to Everything

  Poor gut health is associated with a vast range of diseases, including diabetes, obesity, heart disease, dementia, cancer, infections, autoimmune diseases, and even reproductive diseases.

  The gut’s health often depends on its microbiome, comprised of 100 trillion microbes inside the large intestine.

  A healthy microbiome has a diverse population of microbes with many beneficial bacteria. These microbes produce chemicals necessary for metabolism, nutrition, immunity, and communication within organs. They also help maintain the mucous layer in the gut, preventing infections from entering through the gut cells.

  Poor diet, poor sleep, environmental toxins, alcohol and drugs, infections, and chronic diseases can damage the microbiome by depleting it of beneficial bacteria, leaving pathological bacteria in its place.

  Loss of Bifidobacteria in Gut After COVID Vaccination

  Infections with the COVID-19 virus have been shown to damage the gut microbiome and are associated with compromised integrity of the gut’s mucous layer, causing gut dysbiosis—a microbiome imbalance.

  Reports have also shown that the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine is linked to reduced biodiversity in the microbiome. 

  A gastroenterologist and the CEO of genetic research lab ProgenaBiome, Dr. Sabine Hazan has found that test results of many vaccine-injured patients a month after vaccination show a lack of the probiotic Bifidobacteria. Dr. Hazan’s laboratory was the first to report the whole genome sequence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus using patient fecal samples.

  Bifidobacteria are a group of bacteria under the Bifidobacterium genus and are among the first microbes to colonize the gut. They are believed to benefit their host’s health and are among the most common probiotics.

  “Right now, we’re seeing a persistence [of Bifidobacteria loss] in some patients, not a lot of patients,” Dr. Hazan said. “But if people are suffering after the vaccine, they need to be looked at. They can enter a clinical trial right now … We have markers that we’re developing to identify those patients that are vaccine-injured, and we’re trying to find a signature microbiome in vaccine injuries.”

  Her research team has since been following 200 vaccine-injured patients. She has observed drastic losses of Bifidobacteria and other species in some patients. However, there have also been rare cases where Bifidobacteria increased.

  Dr. Hazan believes that the spike proteins coating the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, made in human cells after vaccination, kill Bifidobacteria, much like the virus can infect and kill good bacteria.

  Like the COVID-19 virus, loss of beneficial microbes like Bifidobacteria may cause gut dysbiosis, directly linked to poor gut health and associated diseases.

  However, gut dysbiosis is poorly defined in clinical diagnosis.

  “In the clinical research looking at patients, we don’t have that definition yet,” Dr. Hazan said. “There is no guidelines to say gut dysbiosis is equal to this (specific thing).”

  Dr. Hazan’s earlier works in COVID patients showed that Bifidobacteria abundance is linked to the severity of COVID-19 disease. Patients with more Bifidobacteria in their gut tended to have mild or asymptomatic disease, whereas patients with low or no Bifidobacteria developed severe disease.

  Treating COVID-19 Injuries Could Start in the Gut

  Many factors must be considered when restoring the microbiome. Doctors must ensure the right microbes are cultivated, that this happens in the right place, that it will not disturb other microbes, and that the gut can support the new microbes being colonized, Dr. Hazan said.

  Restoring microbes in an unhealthy gut environment could be like growing an apple tree in the sand.

  “It’s forensics of the gut microbiome,” she said.

  For Dr. Saleeby, helping patients with COVID-19 injuries often starts with the gut since the gut is what allows patients to absorb prescribed drugs and nutraceuticals.

  He gave the example of low-dose naltrexone, a common staple used among doctors treating long COVID and vaccine injuries.

  “Low-dose naltrexone (LDN) will help the inflamed bowel and will help with Crohn’s disease and/or ulcerative colitis, and in exchange, when you start repairing the gut, you’ll find out that the LDN is absorbed better. So it may change the dose of LDN,” he said.

  In gut dysbiosis, a person may develop small intestinal bacterial overgrowth (SIBO), which can interfere with treatment. Patients may also feel worse after starting therapy. This is because many of the first-line therapies used in treating COVID-19-vaccine injuries work by clearing spike protein and increasing the body’s ability to flush pathogens, Dr. Saleeby said. This can lead the immune system also to attack the overgrowth of bacteria in the gut, resulting in a sudden and massive accumulation of dead microbes in the body.

  The body sees these dead pathogens as a threat, which triggers a sudden inflammatory reaction, causing more symptoms to flare up.

  Reducing the treatment dosage and supplementing with anti-inflammatory therapies like hydration therapy, saunas, and Epsom salt baths can make these reactions more tolerable, said Dr. Saleeby.

  Dr. Berkowitz also has patients who cannot tolerate typical postvaccine therapies. His patients, however, tend to exhibit signs of an overactive nervous system, which he suspects is linked to neurotransmitter depletion from the loss of beneficial bacteria.

  These patients also become much more tolerant of postvaccine treatments once they are given hydration therapy and nutraceuticals that help calm the nervous system and rebuild the gut microbiome.

  Damaged Gut: Neurological Problems

  Research has shown that the gut and the brain are linked through their nervous system, and Drs. Saleeby and Berkowitz believe that the damaged gut could contribute to the brain fog, fatigue, and other problems seen in their patients.

  Gut problems have long been linked to neurocognitive impairments.

  For instance, some people develop severe brain fog “within 30 minutes” of eating a piece of bread because they’re gluten-sensitive or have celiac disease, Dr. Saleeby said.

  Neuroinflammation driven by the gut could explain why patients with gut problems often develop neurocognitive problems. The brain and the gut are extensively linked through the gut-brain axis. When patients suffering from gut problems eat particular foods or chemicals that trigger disease, the gut may produce inflammatory chemicals that can penetrate the brain.

  Another reason cause of neurocognitive impairment is the depletion of neurotransmitters. Many microbes in the gut use dietary nutrients to make neurotransmitters. Some of these microbes are lost in dysbiosis, and the gut becomes less capable of absorbing nutrients for use.

  Therefore, neurological and cognitive problems may manifest. The neurotransmitters used in the brain are also made in the gut. Ninety-five percent and 50 percent of serotonin and dopamine are made in the gut, respectively.

  Most neurotransmitters made outside the brain cannot cross the blood-brain barrier or be utilized by the brain. Yet research suggests a direct link between mental and cognitive health and microbiome health.

  Dr. Berkowitz has noticed what he considers a depletion of gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), which can be made by bacteria in the gut, including Bifidobacteria. He believes the lack of GABA in the brain—an inhibitor to calm the nervous system—is why many patients display signs of an overactive nervous system.

  He treats these patients with magnesium and melatonin, both of which stimulate GABA, and bovine colostrum, a milky fluid that seeps from cow udders the first few days after they give birth. Bovine colostrum has had promising results in repairing gastrointestinal damage in both animals and humans. Using these therapeutics, Dr. Berkowitz found that patients’ overactive nervous systems seemed to calm down, improving their symptoms.

  “People describe their system going 100 miles an hour,” he said, and when you calm that down, the body can then repair itself. “Repair doesn’t happen when the body’s in a stress state … [since all the body’s] resources are focused on just survival.”

  Damaged Gut: Autoimmune Conditions

  Gut problems have also long been associated with autoimmune diseases, and doctors treating vaccine-injured patients have reported similar findings.

  Autoimmune problems typically manifest in leaky gut, often medically referred to as increased intestinal permeability. In a leaky gut, the mucous layer protecting the gut from microbes is broken down, and microbes can then infect the gut lining and nearby blood vessels.

  “If [the gut lining] is disrupted, it’s kind of like [breaking down] a castle wall,” Dr. Saleeby said. “If it gets breached, then the enemy can get in.”

  During this stressful time of invasion, if a virus or bacteria makes it in, infection occurs. If the invader is harmless, like a piece of peanut or a benign chemical, an allergic reaction manifests instead. The body starts attacking these foreign yet benign antigens and, in doing so, may harm itself, leading to autoimmune disease.

  Dr. Berkowitz has found that many of his patients with overactive nervous systems and gut problems also test positive for autoantibodies, signaling a potential autoimmune disease.

  “Nerve pain, fatigue, muscle and joint issues are probably the most common issues [with these patients],” he said. Many also report skin problems such as rashes.

  However, once prescribed treatment for their guts and nervous systems, the patients’ symptoms improve, and their antibody levels decline.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 21:25

• Chinese Data Dump Steamrolls Expectations, Setting Victorious Stage For Xi's BRI Address
  Chinese Data Dump Steamrolls Expectations, Setting Victorious Stage For Xi’s BRI Address

  With Xi preparing to address delegates from 130 nations around the world at the third Belt and Road Initiative Forum, we should not be too surprised if the deluge of Chinese macro data tonight – headlined by Q3 GDP – will beat expectations.

  

  In fact, as Bloomberg’s Chang Shu and David Qu noted, China’s recovery could be starting to get some traction, supported by stronger public investment and monetary easing, as weekly activity data rebounded in September…

  

  …and overall China data has surprised more to the upside in recent months (admittedly against very weak expectations)…

  

  However, bear in mind that base effects will dampen the year-on-year readings.

  Growth in 2Q23 was flattered by a comparison with a depressed performance in 2Q22 caused by the Zero-COVID lockdowns. That boost will be gone in 3Q23, so most economists will be focused on the QoQ growth.

  The Yuan has been relatively stable since the end of Q2, after plunging in Q1 and Q2…

  

  And, despite all the pumping and support, China’s Credit Impulse remains negative (for the 5th month in a row) as its real estate market continues to implode sucking up every yuan to fill the hole-filled bucket balance sheet of Chinese citizenry…

  

  Oh and while we are discussing that, China Property Stock gauge plunged to its lowest since 2009…

  

  So, eyes down for a fun night of ‘adjustments’ from Beijing.

  China’s GDP growth YoY in Q3 was expected to come in at +4.5% (down from +6.3% in Q2) but most eyes will be focused on the QoQ number (+0.9% exp) due to base effects from the COVID lockdowns.

  The headline QoQ GDP printed +1.3% (better than expected).

  Helped by a downward revision for Q2 from +0.8% to +0.5%. The headline YoY data beat expectations (+4.9% YoY vs +4.5% exp and +5.2% YTD YoY vs +5.0% YTD YoY exp)…

  

  Industrial Production and Retail Sales beat expectations…

  • *CHINA SEPT. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 4.5% Y/Y; EST. 4.4%

  • *CHINA SEPT. RETAIL SALES RISE 5.5% Y/Y; EST. 4.9%

  While the data show increasing consumer spending growth, the big downside is that China’s property slump is still deep and ongoing.

  • *CHINA JAN.-SEPT. FIXED INVESTMENT RISES 3.1% Y/Y; EST. 3.2%

  • *CHINA JAN.-SEPT. PROPERTY DEV. INVESTMENT -9.1% Y/Y, EST. -8.9%

  Worse still, the area of property sold fell 7.5% in September, lower than -7.1% seen the previous month.

  Chinese unemployment miraculously tumbled to 5.0% – the lowest since Oct 2021.

  Of course, China continues to hide its youth unemployment rate – after it reached record highs at 21.3% in June.

  

  China’s statistics bureau said in the release, overall, China’s economy continued to recover in the first three quarters, laying a “solid foundation” for achieving the full-year development goals. Although, China once again warned of the external environment, saying it is becoming more complex and severe.

  Under the hood, the fastest growing retail sales categories relate to vice and virtue.

  Tobacco and alcohol sales were up a massive 23.1% year-on-year, a remarkable number (the highest recorded since April 2021). Sports items sales surged 10.7%.

  

  So to sum things up – while investment (especially property) continues to be ugly everything else beat (miraculously)

  Michael Hirson of 22V Research says in a note he’s paying most attention to signs of any recovery in household and private sector demand.

  “Property sales and related indicators will provide a sense of whether recent easing measures are having an effect preliminary data suggest a pick-up in sales in the largest markets (tier 1 and some tier 2) but one that is thus far limited in its strength and breadth,” he wrote in a note.

  “On the consumption side, August showed some improvement in household spending on goods, rather than just services, and it will be important to see whether there are further signs of progress as reflected not only in monthly retail sales but also the quarterly survey of household income and spending.”

  Given his thoughts, property sales and investments data were ugly – not a good sign… and on the consumption side, everyone was celebrating their non-job ‘job’.

  The bottom line from the data – China bottomed… a perfect narrative for Xi.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 21:15

• Pro-Hamas Groups Push Critical Race Theory, Socialism In US
  Pro-Hamas Groups Push Critical Race Theory, Socialism In US

  Authored by Brad Jones via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A California woman sobbed as she learned her friend’s 19-year-old son was kidnapped by the Hamas terrorist group in Israel.

  

  The next day, on Oct. 12, as news of pro-Palestinian “Day of Resistance” rallies spread across the United States, the woman, who is of Jewish heritage and asked not to be named for fear of reprisal, broke the tragic news: Her friend’s son had been murdered by the terrorists.

  The same evening, a group of activists in south Los Angeles staged a protest in solidarity with Palestinians. Two days later, demonstrators again rallied—this time thousands gathering near the Israeli Consulate, at one point shutting down the on- and off-ramps to Wilshire Boulevard from the 405 Freeway.

  At the Thursday protest, activists equated the plight of Palestinians to those of “indigenous peoples.” They called the Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip an “occupation” steeped in racism. They blamed the “capitalist” Jews and white Europeans for the loss of their “indigenous lands” and called for a socialist revolution.

  “All resistance to colonial occupation is justified!” shouted one speaker at the event.

  Protesters chanted, “From Palestine to Mexico, border walls have got to go,” and “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free,” among other slogans. They blamed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for children killed in retaliatory attacks on Palestine and condemned Zionism, equating it with South African apartheid, fascism, and Nazism.

  

  

  The protest, at Martin Luther King Boulevard and Figueroa Street, was organized by Unión del Barrio and the Association of La Raza Educators and other left-wing activist groups known for their support of critical race theory, or CRT, and the state-imposed ethnic studies program.

  Julia Wallace of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) spoke out against Zionism. She called for defunding police as “enforcers of capitalism,” saying they should be ousted from the labor union.

  Another speaker called for a protest outside the south Los Angeles Police Department station on Oct. 22.

  “Let’s take over the police station,” he told the crowd of about 30 supporters.

  Meanwhile, an Oct. 16 Reuters/Ipsos poll shows most Americans see Hamas as a terrorist organization, while they view Israel favorably. An Oct. 13 Rasmussen poll found most U.S. voters blame Palestinians for the conflict and agree with calls for the “eradication” of Hamas.

  On Oct. 15, thousands of people showing support for Israel rallied in Los Angeles, walking down Pico Boulevard to the Museum of Tolerance.

  

  Support for Israel

  Ric Grenell, a Californian and former U.S. Ambassador to Germany who also served as Acting Director of National Intelligence in the Trump administration, condemned the recent attacks on Israeli civilians.

  He stated on Twitter on Oct. 13, the Democratic Socialists of America and student groups that support Hamas “are a real threat to America.”

  “Voting for Democrats who support Socialists like @DemSocialists and ‘Sanctuary Cities’ policies will absolutely lead to people entering our country freely who haven’t been vetted by U.S. immigration services. … We must have laws that protect us against people entering the U.S. who support terrorists like Hamas.”

  Michael Shellenberger, an author and San-Francisco-based political activist who co-founded the California Peace Coalition and other groups, condemned the terrorist attacks on the Israeli people.

  “We unreservedly condemn the atrocities carried out by Hamas and support the right of Israel to defend itself and protect its citizens,” he wrote. “The stories and images of the attack shock the conscience. Nothing on earth could justify such crimes. We condemn those on the radical left who have defended the actions of Hamas terrorists.”

  “We are pro-Israel, by which we mean we defend its right to exist and its right to defend itself,” he continued. “At the same time, we urge Israel and its supporters, including the United States, to, in their response, abide by international law in general and the Geneva Convention in particular. That means doing everything possible to avoid killing or injuring civilians in the Gaza Strip.”

  Kelly Schenkoske, an independent researcher and education advocate, and a critic of critical race theory being taught in California classrooms, denounced the protests pushing critical ideologies.

  “We’re seeing protests at college campuses nationwide in support of Palestine, but this issue does not just reside on our college campuses, it resides in the K-12 sector, especially within ethnic studies,” Ms. Schenkoske said.

  

  The state-imposed ethnic studies curriculum in California is “filled with radical ideology,” she said.

  “The same activists demanding safe schools promote antisemitic ethnic studies content aimed at decolonizing education [and] promoting critical consciousness and training in neo-Marxism. We need to defund antisemitism in schools entirely,” she said.

  Deborah Fillman, a former teacher and education analyst based in North Carolina, told The Epoch Times that California schools are teaching “lies” as historical information through its ethnic studies programs.

  “They’re doing it under the guise of social justice, which is false. There’s no justice that can come from murder. There is no legitimate resistance that comes from the wanton slaughter of innocent civilians,” she said.

  “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free,” is a Hamas slogan that means “all the Jews have to go—the eradication of Israel,” said Ms. Fillman, who is Jewish.

  The pro-Palestinian protestors aren’t calling for a two-state solution but are instead supporting Hamas when they chant those words, she said.

  “It is literally a war crime—every single thing [Hamas] did—including using their own people as human shields,” Ms. Fillman said.

  Colonizer Versus Oppressed

  Tammi Rossman-Benjamin, a co-founder and director of the AMCHA Initiative, a non-profit organization that combats antisemitism, told The Epoch Times that proponents of ethnic studies have used the Israeli-Palestinian conflict “as a way to essentially beat up their political enemies.”

  The pro-Palestinian protestors are using the tenets of critical race theory to frame the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in terms of the colonizer and the oppressed, she said.

   

  “It’s the whole binary oppressed-oppressor [concept] at the heart of ethnic studies that they’ve expanded to talk about politics and international politics,” she said. “In this case, their political agenda aligns up with Hamas’s political agenda which is to destroy Israel.”

  Hamas doesn’t talk about colonialism, she said.

  “It talks about Holy War, it talks about jihad,” and it calls for the ethnic cleansing of Jews from what it considers Muslim lands, Ms. Rossman-Benjamin said.

  The recent “beheading of babies, rape, kidnapping, and massacres” represent the worst and largest number of atrocities committed against Jews since the World War II Holocaust, she said.

  “For Jews, this is really unprecedented in two generations,” she said.

  The AMCHA Initiative issued a statement saying it is “shocked and horrified at the gruesome massacre of over 900 Israelis—children, mothers, grandmothers, fathers, entire families—hundreds of them gunned downed at a music festival … reports of rape and torture, and an estimated over 100 Israelis kidnapped, including children, the elderly, a Holocaust survivor, young women, teenagers, and families.”

  The Jewish community in the U.S. is now bracing for more pro-Palestinian protestors across dozens of university campuses expressing support for “this genocidal campaign,” AMCHA stated.

  The Harvard Undergraduate Palestine Solidarity Committee and more than 30 other student groups recently signed a statement arguing that Israel’s “apartheid regime” is entirely to blame for the attacks. However, following public backlash, at least five organizations that initially signed the letter withdrew their support.

  “We will work hard to expose and combat on-campus supporters and apologists for terror, especially the faculty and departments who provide academic legitimacy for the murder of Jews while disingenuously wrapping themselves in the mantle of academic freedom,” AMCHA stated. “Our hearts are broken, but our resolve is not. We stand united with the Jewish people in Israel and around the world.”

   

  At the University of California—Santa Cruz (UCSC), the Critical Race and Ethnic Studies (CRES) department, which studies “race intersectionality in the context of power,” put out a statement Oct. 11 in support of the Palestinian people.

  “In this moment—when we are grieving lives lost, fearing the many more to come, and witnessing Israel once again retaliate against a trapped Palestinian population in Gaza—we want to underscore the need for study,” CRES stated. “What we are witnessing needs to be understood in the context of 75 years of settler colonial displacement, military occupation, and enclosure. As in the past, racialized media coverage dehumanizes Palestinians, delegitimizing their aspirations for freedom from militarism, colonial rule, and incarceration.”

  The department claims the world is witnessing “the circulation of technologies that are weaponized against Palestinians first, and, subsequently, our most vulnerable populations in the United States, on our borders and globally,” and cites this as the reason why it supports “the critical study of Zionism.”

  The university has received pushback from at least seven members of the faculty, including Ms. Rossman-Benjamin’s husband, Ilan Benjamin, a chemistry professor. On Oct. 4, the group sent a letter to UCSC Chancellor Cynthia Larive expressing “grave concerns” ahead of the inaugural conference of the Institute for the Critical Study of Zionism, held on Oct. 13–14.

  Although the conference has been condemned in the Jewish community “for its deeply offensive, antisemitic content and goals,” the letter focuses on the fact the conference is co-sponsored by three academic units at UCSC: the CRES department, the Center for Racial Justice, and the Center for Creative Ecologies, the faculty members wrote.

  “While these three units may justify their co-sponsorship as a legitimate expression of academic freedom, we vehemently disagree,” they wrote. “It is an outrage that three departments at a publicly funded university are not only sponsoring a politically motivated and directed conference that limits participation to those who agree with the conference’s antisemitic goals, they are committing their department to embracing these goals, thereby threatening their own faculty and students, and members of the entire campus community. This is not a legitimate expression of academic freedom, but rather an egregious abuse of it.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 20:45

• Top Japanese Energy Trader Warns 'World Running Short Of LNG For Energy Transition' 
  Top Japanese Energy Trader Warns ‘World Running Short Of LNG For Energy Transition’ 

  Liquefied natural gas (LNG) plays a pivotal role in the world’s changing energy landscape. By substituting dirtier fuels, LNG curtails carbon dioxide emissions and enhances air quality. This underscores its vital importance in the energy transition. 

  Bloomberg recently spoke with Kenichi Hori, president of Japanese trading house Mitsui & Co., who said global LNG demand will likely be much higher than forecasted and the current “pipeline of projects” won’t be enough. 

  

  “Announced projects in the world still won’t make up for the supply needed when considering the energy transition that will take several decades,” Hori said. 

  Hori is one of Japan’s top traders of LNG and believes, just like Chevron Corp. and Shell Plc, that the fuel will play a crucial long-term role in the energy transition. His comments follow a fracturing of the global LNG market as Europe no longer sources a majority of the fuel from Moscow but instead relies on the US and other countries abroad.  

  According to BloombergNEF data, global LNG demand is set to rise 3.4% annually over 2022-26, reaching about 444 million metric tons. This comes as countries and companies view LNG as one of the cleanest fossil fuels that can lower emissions. Bloomberg noted supply will be tight until 2026 – after that, new projects are forecasted to come online. 

  Hori pointed out his firm has “projects in the US, Middle East, and Africa” to ensure a diverse supply chain. 

  

  He added his firm is interested in signing a contract with Qatar. He stated the Middle Eastern country is an “important source of LNG” as Japan strives for further diversification. 

  Besides LNG, Hori invested $6.4 billion in an offshore wind project off Taiwan and exploring opportunities in e-methanol.  

  “All these projects are going to shape the future of our portfolio that is transitioning from a traditional energy business to a low-carbon-intensive era,” he said.

  Last month, Lorenzo Simonelli, chairman and CEO of service company Baker Hughes, was quoted by Reuters at Gastech, the industry’s largest conference in Singapore, as saying, “Natural gas will continue to play a critical role as a bridging and destination fuel for the energy transition.”

  The biggest takeaway is that LNG has a bright future as it becomes the ‘transition fuel’ as the world progresses to net-zero emissions by 2050. 

   

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 20:25

• DeSantis Draws Red Line On Gaza Refugees, GOP Field Follows Suit (Except Nikki Haley)
  DeSantis Draws Red Line On Gaza Refugees, GOP Field Follows Suit (Except Nikki Haley)

  Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClear Politics,

  Just three days: That’s how long it took for Republicans to adopt a new orthodoxy on how the Biden administration should respond to Palestinian refugees fleeing the violence in Gaza.

  

  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis went first.

  “I don’t know what Biden’s going to do, but we cannot accept people from Gaza into this country as refugees,” DeSantis said in Iowa on Saturday, establishing a red line that the other frontrunners for the Republican presidential nomination would soon adopt.

  As many as 2 million civilians are without food, water, and shelter in Gaza as Israel prepares to invade the densely populated region in response to a deadly Hamas terrorist attack earlier this month. While the White House has backed Israel from the start, the administration has also pressed powers in the region to open a humanitarian corridor to escape the bloodshed.

  The final destination of those refugees, Republicans now say, should not be the United States. But they did not slam the door in unison. In a split screen on Sunday, DeSantis and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley seemed to differ sharply on how the United States ought to respond.

  Former President Trump, meanwhile, remained silent.

  DeSantis reiterated his red line on refugees during an interview with “Face the Nation,” telling Margaret Brennan of CBS that “those Gaza refugees, Palestinian Arabs, should go to Arab countries. The U.S. should not be absorbing any of those.” And he reiterated his warning that, while “not everyone is a member of Hamas,” the culture in Gaza is so “toxic” that welcoming large numbers of refugees “would increase antisemitism” and “anti-Americanism” in the United States.

  Haley rejected that broad characterization during a CNN interview Sunday, telling Jake Tapper that a large portion of Palestinians bristle under Hamas in Gaza.

  “There are so many of these people who want to be free from this terrorist rule. They want to be free from all of that,” she said before adding that Americans have always been sympathetic to the idea “that you can separate civilians from terrorists.”

  JUST IN: Nikki Haley endorses plan to house up to 1,000,000 Palestinians from Gaza.

  “There are so many of these people who want to be free from this terrorist rule. They want to be free from all of that.”

  THOUGHTS?

  pic.twitter.com/2crXQP5SmC

  — Chuck Callesto (@ChuckCallesto) October 17, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The former ambassador also called on Middle Eastern countries to step up and provide for Palestinians desperate to avoid the crossfire.

  “Where are the Arab countries? Where are they?” Haley asked.

  “Where is Qatar? Where is Lebanon? Where is Jordan? Where is Egypt? Do you know we give Egypt over a billion dollars a year? Why aren’t they opening the gates? Why aren’t they taking the Palestinians?”

  When asked specifically if Haley believed that the United States should welcome refugees fleeing the crisis, a spokesman for Haley told RealClearPolitics on Monday that the ambassador “opposes the U.S. taking in Gazans” and that Haley believes “Hamas-supporting countries like Iran, Qatar, and Turkey should take any refugees.”

  As poll numbers tighten in the race to be positioned as Trump’s possible, supporters of the Florida governor seized on that statement as evidence Haley had flip-flopped on the question. Hours later, when Trump said in Iowa that “we aren’t bringing in anyone from Gaza,” the DeSantis campaign suggested that the former president was plagiarizing DeSantis.

  “Trump literally needs a teleprompter in order to finally catch up with a position DeSantis took three days ago on Gaza refugees,” DeSantis spokesman Andrew Romeo told RCP.

  During a campaign stop in Iowa, Trump promised to update and enforce his travel ban to include anyone from Gaza. He went further, vowing to deny entry into the United States to anyone who adhered to “anti-American” ideologies. “If you empathize with radical Islamic terrorists and extremists, you’re disqualified,” he said. “If you want to abolish the state of Israel, you’re disqualified.”

  Trump allies are fond of accusing DeSantis of copying and pasting the former president whenever the governor espouses policies adopted during the previous administration. This time, DeSantis supporters argue it is the other way around.

  Ken Cuccinelli, who served as Trump’s deputy Homeland Security secretary, told RCP that DeSantis had become “the standard-bearer for standing with Israel and protecting American citizens.”

  An immigration hawk and chairman of the pro-DeSantis super PAC, Never Back Down, Cuccinelli said that DeSantis “took the position to ban importing Gaza’s population without hesitation while everyone else is now following his lead.”

  First-time candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who is mired in fourth place in the polls, also added his voice to the emerging chorus of GOP voices. “Vivek would not allow refugees from Gaza into the U.S.,” a Ramaswamy spokeswoman told RCP. Instead, the businessman would look to help facilitate “their emigration to other countries, but this is not an issue where we should risk U.S. security or trade off the well-being of Americans here in the homeland.”

  Support for Israel in the wake of the Hamas attack has been bipartisan and immediate. Conservative consensus on the refugee question took time to evolve.

  Writing in the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, Jonathan Schanzer, a former terrorism analyst for the Treasury Department and a senior vice president at the Foundation for the Defense for Democracies, argued that the responsibility for sheltering refugees should fall on “Hamas’ enablers,” such as Iran, Turkey, and Qatar.

  Some Democrats, like New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman, have called on the Biden administration to welcome refugees. “Fifty percent of the population in Gaza are children. The international community as well as the United States should be prepared to welcome refugees from Palestine while being very careful to vet and not allow members of Hamas,” the progressive “Squad” member said.

  Populist conservatives such as political operative Ryan James Girdusky condemned that idea over the weekend and see the Republican rejection of those calls as part of a larger GOP evolution.

  “For decades, Republicans have been begging politicians to pump the breaks on immigration, but refugees especially,” Girdusky told RCP before arguing that welcoming refugees from Gaza would be tantamount to “importing antisemitism and intolerance.”

  “Their ideology does not change because they cross national borders. That’s not to mention the genuine fear that terrorists can enter as refugees, which has happened a few times in the past,” the author of the National Populist Newsletter added. “Republican candidates who want to expand refugee status to Palestinians are out of touch with their voters.”

  The conflict in the Middle East comes at a moment when Republicans are increasingly divided on the role the United States ought to take on the world stage. And while there is widespread support for Israel among the GOP, many in the 2024 field have grown critical of military aid for Ukraine. Former Vice President Mike Pence said over the weekend that when you have “leaders in the Republican Party signaling retreat on the world stage,” enemies are more likely to attack U.S. allies.

  He pointed specifically at “voices of appeasement like Donald Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Ron DeSantis that I believe have run contrary to the tradition in our party that America is the leader of the free world.”

  For his part, DeSantis ended the weekend at Tampa International Airport. The governor signed an executive order earlier last week directing Florida’s Department of Emergency Management to begin logistical and evacuation efforts of Floridians stuck in Israel after commercial airlines began canceling flights, leaving U.S. citizens stranded in the region. On Sunday evening, nearly 300 Americans returned stateside on a jetliner chartered by the state of Florida with more scheduled in the coming days.

  “I am proud of how quickly we have been able to activate resources and do what the federal government could not – get Floridians and other Americans back home,” the governor said in a statement.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 20:05

• Meat-Giant Tyson Foods Reveals New Insect Plant In 2025
  Meat-Giant Tyson Foods Reveals New Insect Plant In 2025

  Tyson Foods Inc. is buying a stake in insect-protein company Protix BV. The two companies will collaborate to establish a manufacturing facility in the US to produce bug-based meal and oil, typically used in fish feed and dog food. 

  The American meatpacker said Tuesday that it agreed to buy a stake in Dongen, Netherlands-based Protix BV to help fund its expansion. The companies will also form a joint venture to build and operate a US facility that will produce bug-based meal and oil, which are typically used in fish feed and dog food. Financial terms of the deal weren’t disclosed. —Bloomberg 

  “It’s a multibillion-dollar industry opportunity that has tremendous growth potential, and we see Protix as being a leader there,” Tyson CFO John Tyson said in an interview. 

  Tyson said, “In the long run, insect-protein inclusion in animal-feed diets can be a real thing that exists and can be one that is good for people, planet and animals.”

  Protix already supplies insect-based protein to pet food makers Nestle SA and Mars Inc. The company was established in 2009, and the partnership with Tyson will expand operations internationally. 

  “It is definitely a huge way to establish ourselves into an international context,” Protix CEO Kees Aarts said. He added the deal with Tyson is a “tipping point we have been working for.” 

  Aarts said the US plant will not be ready until 2025. He said the new facility will be four times larger than its existing facility in the Netherlands. 

  Slowly but surely, the World Economic Forum and major corporations appear to be resetting the global food supply chain. WEF has been very vocal about how the masses must give up beef because cow farts are polluting the air and, instead, eat insects. 

  

  Also… 

  

  Corporate media has been trying to convince the masses… 

  

  In Europe, an additive made out of powdered crickets has already made its way into pizza, pasta, and cereals.  

  Tyson’s foray into bug production for animal food is an ominous sign that the meat giant could also be planning edible insects for human consumption. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 19:45

• Green Movement Still Steamrolling Rational Resistance To Climate Chicanery
  Green Movement Still Steamrolling Rational Resistance To Climate Chicanery

  Authored by James Varney via RealClear Wire,

  After years as a federal agent helping the Drug Enforcement Administration hunt drug lords across Central Asia, and years more teaching in Maryland classrooms, Robin Shaffer anticipated a quiet retirement watching the deep swells roll across the Atlantic and crash on to the broad Jersey Shore.

  

  Instead, he finds himself embroiled in a fight. As a leader of a grassroots group, Protect Our Coast NJ, Shaffer, 53, is taking on an international company and politicians in Trenton backing Ocean Wind 1, a $10 billion proposal to line the Jersey Shore with 98 wind turbines whose 722-foot propeller whirls would dwarf the Washington Monument and Statue of Liberty.

  It’s been an uphill battle, with the group “taking in nickels and dimes” and “selling T-shirts and magnets.” The local press seems indifferent to their cause, he said, noting that no outlets covered a public meeting he held at a pub, perhaps fittingly, with “Cheers” and “Frasier” actor Kelsey Grammer, one of Hollywood’s few prominent conservatives.

  “There’s this argument made that we must be bought off, sort of, ‘Why fight the Green Revolution? Don’t you care about the environment?’” Shaffer said. “But we don’t have any corporate sponsors or major funding. It’s very much a David vs. Goliath kind of thing.”

  Protect Our Coast NJ, an all-volunteer outfit with a budget of less than $100,000, is one example of an overwhelming disparity that has emerged in the debate over the aggressive push for renewable energy in response to what President Biden calls the “existential threat” of climate change. While once upon a time there may have been scrappy environmentalists combating the corporate might of Big Oil, major fossil fuel producers and conservative philanthropies provide little supporting research challenging climate change, Shaffer and other people interviewed for this article said. As a result, the money and the muscle and the lawyers are now aligned with what they call Big Green.

  Government largesse, shot into the stratosphere by hundreds of taxpayer billions President Biden shoveled to green energy companies and backers through the Inflation Reduction Act, is just the crest of this wave of momentum on behalf of a “climate emergency.”

  Powering the apparent juggernaut are philanthropists who have donated billions, corporate sponsors of environmental groups that look like a who’s who of Wall Street and Silicon Valley, attorneys at white-shoe firms and Ivy League law schools, prosecutors paid privately but operating under a district attorney’s umbrella, along with media and academics who hammer the narrative home.

  “This whole movement is pushed by a small but very powerful elite that controls Washington and the media, but not the way your average American thinks,” said William Happer, an emeritus physics professor at Princeton University who founded the CO2 Coalition in 2015 to advance the argument that global warming is not an existential threat.

  “You think, ‘What can you do?’” Happer said. “They have the media under control, they have politicians, professional and scientific groups and publications are controlled by them, and it’s all driven by money.”

  The corporate sponsors of the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE), for instance, include titans of tech and private enterprise such as Amazon, Google, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Meta and others. Google is also working with the Sierra Club, while the Environmental Defense Fund lists General Electric and DuPont as allies on its website.

  Liberal billionaire Michael Bloomberg pledged another $500 million to kill the coal industry in September, a massive injection of cash that brings to more than $1 billion the amount he has committed to his Beyond Carbon launched in 2019. Another $1.1 billion was pledged by liberal venture capitalist John Doerr to build a climate change school at Stanford University, and Tom Steyer, like Bloomberg a former Democrat presidential candidate, has put millions of his billions behind similar global warming initiatives.

  Shaffer said Protect Our Coast is hiring attorneys he hopes “will do a good job,” but powerful lawyers are already aligned with the “climate emergency” camp. Since 2009 Columbia University Law School has had a Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, while the venerable New York firm of Shearman & Sterling, with 850 attorneys, is partnered with ACORE.

  Whether Shearman & Sterling offers ACORE anything beyond financial backing is unclear; neither responded to a request for comment from RealClearInvestigations. Michael Gerrard, director of the Sabin Center, says its attorneys do not see themselves as activists working on behalf of environmentalists but rather partners in the push for a renewable energy future.

  “The Sabin Center conducts legal analysis and supports strong action on climate change,” Gerrard said. “The Sabin Center does not file lawsuits, but it often files amicus briefs and comment letters.”

  In all cases, he noted, the center is “in support of such [renewable energy] facilities, and opposing those who are against such facilities – typically municipalities, and sometimes NIMBY groups.”

  A Who’s Who of Wall Street and Silicon Valley

  The David vs. Goliath dynamic is compounded by government funding. Academic grants, scientific funding, and now, through the Inflation Reduction Act, U.S. taxpayer money for the environment go almost exclusively to what advocates characterize as green energy projects. Ultimately, the Inflation Reduction Act, which supporters predicted would cost taxpayers $391 billion, will likely cost some $1.2 trillion, according to an analysis by Goldman Sachs.  

  Just how much the U.S. government spends on global warming research is nearly impossible to calculate, since money comes from so many different departments. The Government Accounting Office, which conducts research at the behest of members of Congress, has not looked at the subject since 2018, when it calculated the cost had been $13.2 billion in the previous decade. 

  That money flows almost exclusively to those who support the climate emergency argument. 

  “It’s real. If you were to submit a proposal to the federal government – whether it’s NSF, NOAA or NASA – that was challenging the narrative, you would not have much chance at all of getting funded,” said former Obama energy official Steven Koonin, a theoretical physicist and engineering professor at New York University. “Whereas if you wrote a proposal that supported the narrative, you’re in.” 

  RCI sought comment from all three of the federal agencies Koonin mentioned. Only NASA acknowledged receipt of the questions; none has responded.

  Judith Curry, a prominent skeptic of apocalyptic warnings regarding climate change and a former professor at Georgia Tech, looked at academe’s politicization and dependence on government financing in her book, “Climate Uncertainty and Risk.”

  “Power politics by activist scientists to advance a clear political agenda has inflamed and polarized the climate change debate within the community of climate scientists,” Curry told RCI. “Calls for proposals from the federal funding agencies implicitly assume the dominance of human-caused global warming. Hence scientists have little motivation to work on anything else. The end result is research that analyzes the results of climate model simulations to infer dire societal consequences.”

  Tarred as Shills for Big Oil

  Despite the disparity in funding and resources, climate emergency skeptics are often dismissed as shills for energy companies. Yet the CO2 Coalition, for example, includes Happer, a member of the National Academy of Science; John Clausen, who won the 2022 Nobel Prize in Physics; and Patrick Moore, a co-founder and former director of Greenpeace.

  A cursory web search on the Coalition turns up multiple stories of how it once received $1 million from ExxonMobil and articles about Happer’s brief stint with the Trump administration, all couched in language suggesting the Coalition’s work is biased.

  Regardless of where the grant originated, $1 million is a paltry sum in the context of global warming largesse. In September alone those pushing the idea that global warming presents an existential threat stood to get 2,000 times that amount just from Bloomberg and a pledge from the liberal Rockefeller Foundation to spend $1 billion “to advance climate solutions.” Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder and owner of The Washington Post, has pledged up to $10 billion for his Earth Fund.

  In addition, the big energy companies appear to have largely stopped funding research challenging the climate emergency narrative, in some cases bending to the prevailing winds – or solar rays or what have you – of political expediency.

  “Where is this oil money people talk about? I wish I could get some,” said Anthony Watts, who runs the Watts Up With That website. “ExxonMobil hasn’t the faintest idea who I am. The notion energy company money has corrupted any of the findings that run counter to the approved narrative on global warming is a fallacy designed to support the tribalism in the field.”

  RCI reached out to numerous major energy companies. ExxonMobil asked for specific questions, which a spokeswoman did not answer, and the others did not respond.

  Watts has run his site, which dubs itself “the world’s most viewed site on global warming and climate change,” since 2006. In that time, the issue of global warming has gone from a computer model theory to “settled science” to a “climate emergency,” and the money and power has grown accordingly, he said.

  “I thought, when I started, if I demonstrated biases in the temperature readings – significant biases – there would be a correction, because it’s science, there would be this ‘we got this wrong, let’s fix this,’ thinking,” he said. “But it has morphed from its infancy of studying numbers and data to some big business conglomerate.”

  Watts has experienced firsthand how social media helps frame global warming as a looming catastrophe. Despite his site’s viewership, he says, it was “demonetized” by WordAds, which enables ads to be run on WordPress websites. There was no specific post cited for violating any terms, according to Watts, but WordPress notified him the fees would no longer be collected after Google announced “they were removing ad services from all climate skeptic cites.”

  Wildly Inflated Numbers

  Similar institutional moves, along with the marked funding disparities, have largely muffled the arguments made by those who disagree with the “climate emergency” conclusion.

  “The truth is, we are essentially a grassroots movement of people who don’t believe a crisis exists, certainly not one worth destroying the economy of the world,” he said.

  The uneven playing field marks a change. Almost a decade ago, progressives such as New Yorker writer Jane Mayer – author of “Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right” – were warning of secret networks funding climate change denial. There is no database aggregating funding for such groups, though progressive scholars have published research highlighting what they admit are wildly inflated numbers. A 2018 paper published in the journal Climactic Change, titled “Obstructing Action: Foundation Funding and U.S. Climate Change Counter-movement Organizations,” reports billions in grants between 2003-2018, though its authors note “we cannot ascertain that any particular grant supports activities directly related to climate change unless specifically stated on the grant records.” Instead, they add the gross totals of all contributions to conservative organizations they consider climate skeptics, such as Americans for Prosperity, the Reason Foundation, the Federalist Society, and the Manhattan Institute.

  Conservative groups mentioned in the article, such as the Heritage Foundation and the Heartland Foundation, continue to publish critiques of global warming alarmism. But representatives noted their budgets are divided among many policy silos and they do not have the corporate backing enjoyed by the climate emergency camp. In 2023, Heritage said its budget grew to $100 million as part of a major fundraising initiative, but in the past it has usually operated with around $80 million annually.

  Diana Furchtgott-Roth, director of energy, climate and the environment at Heritage, noted that it gets “less than 5 percent of its money from corporate sponsors and no company contributes more than 1 percent.” And that money is spread out over various departments so that only a fraction of it is devoted to combatting the alarmist global warming narrative, she said.

  Climate skeptics says such figures are laughable.  

  “We have comparatively few dollars while the other side now literally has trillions,” said Steve Milloy, who operates the Junk Science website, pointing to money that European countries, the U.N., and other bodies have given for global warming research or to prop up green energy companies with loans and tax credits.

  Others in the trenches, more or less, echoed Shaffer’s experience in New Jersey.

  “We are up against sleazy lawyers and lobbyists and a fancy propaganda campaign every time,” said Kevin Emmerich, whose grassroots Basin and Range Watch has gone up against major solar projects in Nevada. “The big solar and wind projects that end up being the ones we fight are all being proposed by the companies who have the most money. They have the money to lobby congress and pay big lawyers. They also tend to buy out little towns.”

  As lone laptop warrior operations like Milloy’s and Watts’s attest, whatever money that flows to skeptical camps to tar the other side is slight. The same appears to be true on the international scene, as the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a group that seeks to counter the notion that wrenching changes to Western economies are needed to combat global warming, reports an annual budget of roughly $475,000 in 2022. The Sierra Club alone had a budget of $151 million that year.

  Companies have to a large extent begun to infuse environmental activists with cash as a form of “greenwashing,” said Furchtgott-Roth. The alarmist camp has become so hostile and flush that is simply easier for corporations to avoid potential problems.

  Role Reversal

  “It’s no longer just an ideological fight where one group of people may have the better view,” she said. “This has become a matter of theological importance, they see this as a matter of good vs. evil.”

  For now, the role of scrappy opponent, once held by environmentalists, has switched to opponents of massive “green” energy projects. Small players like Protect Our Coast NJ take some solace in the rising costs of such projects which has delayed the launch of Ocean 1 until 2026. The group drew more than 100 people – but only one reporter – to a recent event marred by a downpour. Shaffer, pointing to polling that shows support for the project has plummeted in New Jersey, vows to keep up the fight.

  “Despite obvious attempts by the Fourth Estate to ignore the efforts of thousands of New Jerseyans to protect the marine ecosystem and the Jersey Shore, our message is getting out,” he said.

  That message will win in the end even with the lopsided nature of the debate, Happer predicted. He compares the current landscape to what prevailed with the eugenics movement a century ago.

  “Every little town had its ‘Eugenics Society,’ decent white ladies got together to drink tea and discuss it, the presidents of Harvard and Princeton, the scientific journals – the whole ‘Establishment’ believed in eugenics,” Happer said. “It was all nonsense, of course, and ended when Germany took eugenics to its logical conclusion. Now, some unfortunate county or state will implement all this and the people will rise up in fury, the policies are so crazy people will simply rebel. It happens again and again in human history when something seems invincible.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 19:25

• The Left's Cognitive Dissonance Crisis Exposed In One Tweet
  The Left’s Cognitive Dissonance Crisis Exposed In One Tweet

  The last 10 days – since Hamas terrorists invaded Israel and slaughtered 100s of men, women, and children – have been remarkable from an American political discourse perspective. The pretzel-like logic exposed as caring, compassionate, tolerant progressives attempted to comment (or chose not to comment) on the atrocities without calling them atrocities, or supporting colonialism/apartheid/oppression, or being anti-semitic, or being pro-terrorist… was stunning.

  

  We weren’t alone in our astonishment, as Robert Sterling took to X and summarized succinctly:

  “It’s been amazing this week to watch the left invert every rhetorical device they’ve used since 2020, all to avoid having to criticize terrorists dedicated to Jewish genocide.

  It would be hilarious, if it weren’t so reprehensible.”

  Examples, you say?

  He has those…

  2020: Silence is violence.

  2023: People can’t be expected to comment on every situation. It’s okay to just keep silent, especially while events are still unfolding.

  * * *

  2020: If you’re nitpicking small details instead of focusing on the big picture, you’re doing so to avoid your complicity in atrocities.

  2023: 40 babies weren’t actually beheaded. 40 babies may have been killed, and some of them may have been beheaded, but that’s not the same as 40 getting beheaded. Details matter.

  * * *

  2020: Universities must proactively take a stand and speak out in opposition to racism. “Academic freedom” is a false concept used to enforce oppression.

  2023: Universities need to maintain neutrality and ensure that they do not make any statements that jeopardize the principle of academic freedom, which is a paramount virtue in the realm of scholarship.

  * * *

  2020: You must immediately and forcefully condemn an attack, even if investigations are ongoing.

  2023: You can’t expect us to release statements opposing an attack within four days, when the facts are still being discovered. Israel hasn’t even allowed UN investigators at the scenes of these “alleged massacres.”

  * * *

  2020: People are responsible for their words, even if they are just working-class teenagers in small towns. Freedom of speech doesn’t mean freedom from consequences.

  2023: Graduate students at the most prestigious university in the world are just kids and cannot be held accountable for statements they sign. This is cancel culture.

  * * *

  2020: Believe all women.

  2023: Where is the physical evidence of these “alleged rapes”?

  * * *

  2020: It’s not enough to be non-racist. If you are not actively anti-racist, it means that you are, in fact, racist.

  2023: How dare you question whether I support terrorists just because I haven’t actively spoken out against Hamas freedom fighters.

  * * *

  2020: We don’t get to tell people in affected communities how to deal with their pain in the aftermath of violence.

  2023: It is Israel’s responsibility to ensure that violence doesn’t escalate.

  * * *

  2020: Anything that disproportionately affects one group of people is oppression and must be condemned.

  2023: Settlers—a term that includes all Israeli Jews—are not civilians and are therefore all valid targets for attacks.

  * * *

  But, hey, when did being genuine ever count for anything…

  

  To be fair, hypocrisy has been turned up to ’11’ on both sides of the aisle, it’s just the left seem to do it with less shame than anyone else.

  Yup. Unfortunately, most people really don’t have actual principles anymore. We all just have our respective tribes and teams, and we leverage whatever “principles” are needed to support our side at any given time.

  — Robert Sterling (@RobertMSterling) October 14, 2023

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  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 19:05

• Deaths Of Despair Afflict More Cohorts Than Case-Deaton Originally Found
  Deaths Of Despair Afflict More Cohorts Than Case-Deaton Originally Found

  Authored by Yves Smith via NakedCapitalism.com,

  At the risk of over-hoisting from an important piece of analysis, below are some of the key sections from Anusar Farooqui, who writes as Policy Tensor, on the extent of the “death of despair” catastrophe. His piece, Yes, High-School Graduates Are Dying of Despair, is important because he demonstrates that the rising death rates over time extend even into those with some college education.

  

  Farooqu got in an argument with Matt Yglesias on Twitter over the body of work by Ann Case and Angus Deaton on so-called deaths of despair, in which they found what they called an AIDS-level surge of mortality among less-educated whites in middle age. Not only have Case and Deaton refined their analysis, but other studies have identified an increase in early deaths from suicide and addiction in other groups.

  For background, from our first post in 2015 on Case-Deaton findings:By Pressreach

  Top Biotech Pick Unveiled

  Keep abreast of hot stocks with timely market news. Get the latest pick right here. Click here!

  The authors found that from 1999 to 2013, the death rate among non-Hispanic whites aged 45 to 54 with a high school education or less rose, while it fell in other age and ethnic groups. This is an HIV-level silent epidemic: AIDS killed an estimated 650,000 from the mid-1980s to present, while an estimated close to half-million died in half that time period who would have lived had their mortality rates fallen in line with the rest of the population. It is hard to overstate the significance of these findings. From the New York Times:

  “It is difficult to find modern settings with survival losses of this magnitude,” wrote two Dartmouth economists, Ellen Meara and Jonathan S. Skinner, in a commentary to the Deaton-Case analysis that was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

  This cross-country comparison from the study shows how extreme an outlier these middle aged whites are:

  

  The big culprits are linked to despair, namely “poisoning” which is opioid abuse first and alcoholism second, and suicides. Case and Deaton dug into the underlying statistics, and found distressingly high levels of pain and impaired health in this age group, so pain and physical impairment may well be bigger culprits than economic distress:

  

  And the rise in death rates took place among men and women, in all of the four major regions of the country the authors examined, and obesity rates were not a driving factor.

  These pathologies have been showing up in other demographics. For instance, the Wall Street Journal reported in May 2023 that death rates in the 1 to 19 year old age group had risen at an unprecedented rate from 2019 to 2021 due to guns, suicides, car accidents, and drugs.

  Now to the immediate discussion. Farooqui took issue with a claim by Matt Yglesias, bolstered by Eric Levitz, that the Case-Deaton data was less significant that it might seem because it lumped together those with no high school degrees with high school diplomas. Yglesias and Levitz argued that the “deaths of despair” were only taking place among high school dropouts and so the white working class was not in as terrible shape as it might seem.

  Farooqui pointed out that Case and Deanton had shown that death rates among the middle aged were rising, albeit relatively modestly, even among those with some college education. But then he turns to the crux of the disagreement:

  However, they [Case and Deaton] do not distinguish between [less than] HS and HS, and therefore do not address the specific issue highlighted by Levitz: “… it is actually an acute crisis of mortality of the bottom 10%.”

  This is an empirical question. We attack this problem using CDC data collated by Wharton. They have age-specific mortality rates by educational attainment. The ordinal categories are

  In order to obtain a more representative graph, we use age-specific population weights to combine age-specific hazard ratios. The next graph displays the population-weighted average of hazard ratios for our age-specific cohorts. By construction, this weighted average of hazard ratios is not confounded by any increase in average age within discrete age brackets. And, as explained above, because we’re looking at hazard ratios, it is also not confounded by the common component. This is as kosher as it gets in this business.

  

  We can see that the upward trend in hazard ratios is not confined to high-school dropouts. It is true that the trend is most pronounced for them. But the upward trend is also significant for high-school graduates and those with some college under their belt. The all-cause hazard ratio has increased by 3.28 for high-school dropouts, 2.08 for high school graduates, and 1.27 for those with some college. The upshot is that, on the wrong side of the diploma divide, despair goes very far up indeed.

  And then he drives the point home (I’ve omitted the charts in this section, but Farooqui showed he has the goods):

  All-cause mortality has a very strong signal. But the evidence for American working class despair is not confined to mortality. Prime-age labor force participation contains the same signal of despair: four out of every nine Americans with only a high-school diploma are not even looking for a job. It’s not like high-school graduates can survive on one pay-check! These are obviously discouraged workers in despair.

  Take family reproduction—perhaps the most important factor in human well-being. Following the Sixties revolution in behavioral norms, the rate of family reproduction stabilized for college graduates by the 1990s. But it has continued to fall for high school graduates. See my note from three years ago. And if you’re interested a deeper dive, see Andrew Cherlin’s work.

  Or, take divorce rates. For college graduates, 29.7 percent of first marriages end in divorce by age 46. For high-school graduates, 48.2 percent of first marriages end in divorce. (The table’s from here.)

  We can keep going. The truth is that American working-class despair is such a robust, large-scale pattern that one can recover the signal from practically anything we care to measure—mortality, morbidity, BMI, labor force participation, marriage rates, child-out-of-wedlock rates, you name it.

  So, I stand by my challenge to Matthew Yglesias.

  Well-off Americans are so removed from these cohorts, usually encountering them in various service, as in servile, positions where they have to put on a good face as a condition of getting paid, that they can pretend that the lesser orders aren’t suffering in financial and emotional terms.

  One proof is despite Case’s and Deaton’s landmark work, there’s no interest in what to do to alleviate this personal and collective disaster. Our version of “Let them eat cake” has gone from “let them learn to code” to “Deprogram them all”.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 18:45

• Arab Leaders Refuse To Meet Biden As Protests Rage Around The World After Gaza Hospital Strike
  Arab Leaders Refuse To Meet Biden As Protests Rage Around The World After Gaza Hospital Strike

  Update (2100ET): Wednesday is shaping up as quite a global day of rage as the following series of clips from major cities around the world demonstrates.

  Iraq:

  Baghdad, Iraq pic.twitter.com/ZgK8xuEELR

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

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  Turkey

  Istanbul, Turkey pic.twitter.com/wZOjx9RSM8

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

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  Lebanon

  Beirut, Lebanon pic.twitter.com/Y1P26RFXdq

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

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  Jordan

  Amman, Jordan pic.twitter.com/kgUUvdaJec

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

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  Qatar

  Doha, Qatar pic.twitter.com/6ZY7oI8D2h

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

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  Iran

  Tehran, Iran pic.twitter.com/vkVDENQvE1

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

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  Spain

  Barcelona, Spain pic.twitter.com/V3tqpLyGZw

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

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  Egypt

  Cairo, Egypt pic.twitter.com/nqrcJTvUfJ

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

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  Yemen

  Sanaa, Yemen pic.twitter.com/snqZXSVxo0

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

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  Germany

  Berlin, Germany pic.twitter.com/7iZvOMDddf

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

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  Greece

  Greece pic.twitter.com/xSH6bvaS13

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

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  Canada

  Montreal, Canada pic.twitter.com/ozTrKk5KNO

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

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  Morocco

  Rabat, Morocco pic.twitter.com/2azCPE0DkA

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 18, 2023

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  * * *

  Update(1820ET): As expected, the fallout from the al-Ahli Baptist Hospital bombing has been swift, with a domino effect of negative consequences both for diplomacy and on the ‘Arab street’. The situation outside the US Embassy in Beirut is deteriorating tonight, with reports of riot police and tear gas being deployed against large crowds waving Hezbollah flags. 

  But more importantly, and just as Air Force One is departing Washington for Israel, the White House has canceled the entire leg of Biden’s trip to Jordan. The confirmation was issued within the same hour that Arab leaders announced they were unwilling to meet with Biden, given the US is Israel’s biggest funder and supporter.

  Biden issued a statement “deepest condolences” to victims of Gaza “hospital explosion,” according to the White House official statement:

  After consulting with Jordan King Abdullah II & in light of the days of mourning announced by Palestinian Authority President Abbas, President Biden will postpone his travel to Jordan and the planned meeting with these two leaders and Egypt President Sisi.

  The President sent his deepest condolences for the innocent lives lost in the hospital explosion in Gaza, and wished a speedy recovery to the wounded.

  So even before arriving in Israel, the Tuesday massacre – which Israel is actually blaming on Palestinian militants (specifically PIJ) – has effectively served to box-in Biden. France’s Macron has just issued a condemnation to boot, saying “nothing can justify targeting civilians” in a statement which appears to place blame squarely on the Israelis. Biden will now also face the pressure to join the chorus of international condemnation. “International humanitarian law is binding on all and must enable the protection of civilian populations. Humanitarian access to the Gaza Strip must be opened up without delay,” the French foreign ministry said in the statement.

  Here’s what Jordan had to say:

  “There is no point in doing anything at this time other than stopping this war,” Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said on Al Jazeera Arabic early Wednesday morning. “There is no benefit to anyone in holding a summit at this time.”

  There are emerging reports that crowds are attempting to storm the US Embassy in Beirut, based on unconfirmed but widely circulating footage overnight (local time): 

  In Beirut, Lebanon everyone is heading towards the US EMBASSY. pic.twitter.com/Q6ncVoWLml

  — Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) October 17, 2023

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  Alleged footage circulating showing US Embassy in Beirut being stormed by a huge crowd of angered Lebanese following the horrific Israeli strike on a hospital in Gaza.#Lebanon #Gaza pic.twitter.com/smtqv5cl3X

  — Robert Carter (@Bob_cart124) October 17, 2023

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  BREAKING: Protester place Palestine flag at US embassy in Lebanon, reports of tear gas fired at protesters pic.twitter.com/5BO5eoRqS4

  — Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) October 17, 2023

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  Also, things continue popping off around the Israeli Embassy in Jordan…

  Watch: Jordanian security forces block protesters from attempting to storm the #Israeli embassy in Amman following a deadly attack on a #Gaza hospital.

  More here: https://t.co/KfJNw90bl3 pic.twitter.com/YKRcrcJ80I

  — Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) October 17, 2023

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  According to one US special forces veteran, now journalist:

  I can’t recall ever seeing the Israeli government just completely lose control of the narrative they way they have recently. Their messaging/propaganda (depending on where you sit) is usually on point. https://t.co/yFTdwD0Ezm

  — Jack Murphy (@JackMurphyRGR) October 17, 2023

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  * * *

  Update(1610ET): The IDF, and PM Netanyahu have weighed in on the Gaza hospital bombing, which killed and injured hundreds: 

  Tal Heinrich, a spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told CNN Tuesday that the “IDF does not target hospitals,” adding, “we only target Hamas strongholds, arms depots and terror targets.”

  Heinrich’s comments came after Palestinian officials said that preliminary estimates indicate between 200 to 300 people were killed in an Israeli strike on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City.

  An analysis of IDF operational systems indicates that a barrage of rockets was fired by terrorists in Gaza, passing in close proximity to the Al Ahli hospital in Gaza at the time it was hit.

  Intelligence from multiple sources we have in our hands indicates that Islamic Jihad is…

  — Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) October 17, 2023

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  The IDF issued a statement based on a preliminary investigation, claiming that it was an errant missile fired from within Gaza itself. The IDF alleges that Palestinian Islamic Jihad fired the rocket in a “failed shooting” that was intended for Israel.

  “According to intelligence information, from several sources we have, the Islamic Jihad [PIJ} terrorist organization is responsible for the failed shooting that hit the hospital,” the IDF statement said, as it appeared in English on the Government of Israel’s “X” account. PIJ responds:

  PALESTINIAN ISLAMIC JIHAD SPOKESMAN DENIES ISRAELI ALLEGATIONS THAT THE MILITANT GROUP IS RESPONSIBLE FOR GAZA HOSPITAL STRIKE

  Breaking: IDF Spokesperson

  From the analysis of the operational systems of the IDF, an enemy rocket barrage was carried out towards Israel, which passed through the vicinity of the hospital when it was hit.

  According to intelligence information, from several sources we have,… pic.twitter.com/hdQra9QZAm

  — Israel ישראל 🇮🇱 (@Israel) October 17, 2023

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  The international reaction has been swift, especially from regional heads of state, with Turkey’s Erdogan and Jordan’s King Abdullah being among the first to condemn the “war crime” and “massacre”. Abdullah said no one can be “silent” about it.

  Large evening protests have not only erupted in towns across the West Bank, especially in Ramallah, but in Arab capitals from Tunisia to Amman. There are fresh reports that Israel’s embassy in Jordan is coming under attack. Large groups of demonstrators have also been seen headed toward the US Embassy in Beirut.

  BREAKING: Dozens of protesters attempt to storm Israeli embassy in Amman, Jordan

  pic.twitter.com/xbfI2UDOjC

  — Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) October 17, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Intifada 3.0?… but with signs this could spread across the Arab world in wake of the al-Ahli Hospital bombing in Gaza City:

  Regardless, this is a very dangerous mega-event. Ramallah now. pic.twitter.com/4SWTtoJoub

  — Daniel Seidemann (@DanielSeidemann) October 17, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Scenes from Amman, again which could spread to many other countries as the Palestinian death toll continues to rise:

  Hundreds of protesters try to storm the #Israeli embassy in Amman, Jordan moments ago. pic.twitter.com/LKCQt6GlyT

  — Ahmer Khan (@ahmermkhan) October 17, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Meanwhile, in more breaking news…

  WHITE HOUSE EYES $100 BILLION UKRAINE, ISRAEL AND BORDER ASK

  Will this event be the spark that sets the whole region on fire? Whether what Israel is claiming is true or not, we may be witnessing the first rumblings…

  Israel just made a horrible mistake, which will unleash a new major war in the region.

  Israel made the impossible possible.
  Factions who were fighting yesterday in Syria or the Afghan and Iranian forces. They actually could join tomorrow hands, while fighting Israel.

  — Paktیawal (@Paktyaw4l) October 17, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  President Biden is on his way to Israel in Air Force One as all of this is escalating fast.

  Already, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has canceled a scheduled meeting with Biden, citing the “cold-blooded massacre”.

  Hard to see how Biden’s meeting with Arab leaders in Amman will take place after this. And the optics of going just to Israel after the carnage in Gaza are also terrible. https://t.co/gQ4cfHHY0i

  — Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) October 17, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And in additional breaking news: Russia and the UAE have called for an extraordinary UN Security Council meeting after the strike on the hospital in Gaza, per Tass.

  * * *

  Update(1400ET): Horrific reports of a mass casualty bombing are emerging from Gaza, where a hospital suffered direct hit reportedly by Israeli airstrikes. Gaza’s health ministry has said there are at least 500 casualties in the aftermath of the hospital blast, with “hundreds of victims” buried under the rubble. Gaza sources also say that a UN-run school housing refugees was attacked.

  Initially, local emergency officials said there were at least 200 killed in the mid-evening bombing of al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City, but the count has been steadily rising. Now, per Al Jazeera: “The health ministry in the Gaza Strip says at least 500 people have been killed in an Israeli attack on al-Ahli Arab Hospital.”

  The moment the hospital in Gaza was hit by Israeli airstrike pic.twitter.com/OTTdayOGoT

  — Ali Hashem علي هاشم (@alihashem_tv) October 17, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Graphic scenes are emerging…

  ⚡️Scenes from the bombing of Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in the center of Gaza City pic.twitter.com/wUAIKVZziX

  — War Monitor (@WarMonitors) October 17, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Gaza’s Health Ministry says Israel killed over 500 people in a targeted strike on the Ahli Arab hospital.

  Initial estimates had the death toll at 200-300. These are scenes from immediately after the Israeli strike. pic.twitter.com/lHkjZravJA

  — Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) October 17, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Photographs are circulating of bodies scattered (intentionally blurred) outside of burning hospital wings:

  

  Now:

  The Israeli military directly bombs the Arab Baptist Hospital in Gaza city.

  Many casualties pic.twitter.com/kpdI8zVvpe

  — Younis Tirawi | يونس (@ytirawi) October 17, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  This humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding as President Biden is en route to Israel. Likely many of the victims of the hospital attack were women and children.

  Certainly this greatly raises the pressure and the stakes for Biden, as the White House will have to ‘answer’ for this as Israel’s most powerful ally. No doubt the US administration is scrambling to prepare for how it will respond.

  * * *

  At this point, exchanges of fire between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and militants in south Lebanon, especially Hezbollah, have become a daily occurrence – and yet still a full assault from Hezbollah has been avoided. Many analysts have speculated that Israel could be holding off its expected major ground invasion of Gaza precisely to avoid provoking a ‘northern front’ from opening up.

  But there are continuing signs the situation is sliding toward that feared two-front scenario, as the IDF has initiated a plan to evacuate all civilians who live within two kilometers of the Lebanese border. They said the repeat rocket and mortar fire make it necessary, also in preparation for potential greater military action. 

  The country’s National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA) will oversee transferring of Israeli civilians to state-funded guesthouses. In total a whopping 28 towns and communities will be evacuated.

  

  NEMA has listed them out as follows: Ghajar, Dishon, Kfar Yuval, Margaliot, Metula, Avivim, Dovev, Ma’ayan Baruch, Bar’am, Manara, Yiftah, Malkia, Misgav Am, Yir’on, Dafna, Arab al-Aramshe, Shlomi, Netu’a, Ya’ara, Shtula, Matat, Zar’it, Shomera, Betzet, Adamit, Rosh Hanikra, Hanita and Kfar Giladi.

  Many of these in the last several days saw residents flee due to rocket fire from the other side of the border.

  Hezbollah has issued new claims it has destroyed an IDF tank and other military assets. Already both sides have taken on a few casualties. 

  “Hezbollah carried out a number of attacks yesterday in order to try to divert our operational efforts [away from the Gaza Strip], under the direction and backing of Iran, while endangering the state of Lebanon and its citizens,” an IDF spokesman had said Monday.

  “We have increased our forces on the northern border and will respond aggressively to any activity against us,” the IDF said. “If Hezbollah dares to test us, the reaction will be deadly. The United States is giving us full backing.”

  ⚡️Hezbollah published a video showing them “targeting this morning, Tuesday 10/17/2023, a vehicle of the Zionist enemy army in the Metulla site, causing direct hits.” pic.twitter.com/BRhUdpB31E

  — War Monitor (@WarMonitors) October 17, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Dozens of rockets have been launched from Hezbollah positions in the last days. Israel has in response shelled militant positions in Lebanon, but has also hit Lebanese residential areas, prompting people in the area to flee.

  On Tuesday, Hezbollah announced that its fighters launched an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) at a gathering of Israeli soldiers, which the group said resulted in “a number of casualties”.

  Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s main state backer Iran has continued ratcheting the threats against Israel:

  Whatever crimes the Zionist regime commits will fail to compensate for its disgraceful defeat during the Al-Aqsa Storm operation.

  — Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) October 17, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  A series of statements from multiple sides point toward continued escalation, which could explode well beyond the Gaza crisis: 

  Israel Ministry of Health: “The war may last a long time, prepare an emergency stock of food for 4 months.”

  Iranian Foreign Minister: “The expansion of the war to other fronts has begun to reach unavoidable stages.”

  IDF Spokesman: “Israel is prepared on its own both in the north and in the south.”

  Israeli Military Spokesman: “If Hezbollah commits a grave mistake, we will respond with devastating force never seen before.”

  Iranian leaders have gone so far as to issue threat of ‘preemptive attack’ if Israel continues decimating Gaza…

  🚨 JUST IN – Iranian Leader Khamenei in Rare Speech:

  – “We MUST Respond to What is Happening in Gaza”

  – “The usurper Zionist regime must be prosecuted.”

  – “This should be realized by those who want Iran to stop certain Resistance groups, and they shouldn’t have any… pic.twitter.com/fz367ZDJvx

  — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 17, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  For now, the situation is expected to be contained given President Biden’s expected Wednesday trip to Israel. There’s widespread belief that Israeli will not go into Gaza with full force so long as the US leader is visiting. 

  Additionally, Israel is still facing condemnation and international pressure related to the Reuters crew which was fired upon: “On Friday, Issam Abdallah, a Reuters video journalist, was killed in southern Lebanon after missiles launched from the direction of Israel struck him,” writes the New York Times. “Six other journalists — from Reuters, Al Jazeera and Agence France-Presse — were also injured in the attack, which occurred near the village of Alma al-Shaab.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 18:20

• Zombie Firms: Navigating The Looming Threat Of Higher Interest Rates
  Zombie Firms: Navigating The Looming Threat Of Higher Interest Rates

  Authored by Robert Burrows via BondVigilantes.com,

  Everyone knows that the best way to kill a Zombie is to smash its brain. For Zombie firms, that killer blow is higher interest rates…

  

  Zombie firms are essentially companies that exist on borrowed time.

  They struggle to generate enough profits to cover their debt obligations, yet manage to stay afloat thanks to lenient borrowing conditions. The prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates following the 2008 financial crisis played a significant role in sustaining these firms, allowing them to refinance their debts at favourable terms.

  As a result, many of these entities have been able to continue operating, albeit with weakened balance sheets and limited growth prospects.

  Implications for the Economy

  The persistence of zombie firms has implications beyond individual company struggles. These entities tie up resources that could otherwise be invested in more productive and innovative ventures. Resources such as labour, capital, and market share are effectively locked within these stagnant firms, inhibiting the overall efficiency of the economy. This phenomenon can contribute to sluggish economic growth, reduced job creation, and a less dynamic business landscape.

  The Looming Threat: Higher Interest Rates

  One of the key factors enabling zombie firms to survive has been the availability of cheap credit. As central banks increase interest rates in response to improving economic conditions and/or inflation, the environment that has sustained these firms has shifted dramatically. Higher interest rates will lead to increased borrowing costs for these entities, potentially pushing some of them over the brink and into insolvency.

  While the removal of zombie firms might seem like a logical outcome, it is important to acknowledge the potential challenges that could arise from their mass extinction. A sudden wave of business closures could lead to a spike in unemployment and financial instability. Additionally, sectors that have relied on these firms for business relationships and transactions could experience disruptions, further rippling through the economy.

  How does the transmission work in the US?   

  If we think about the consumer, the first avenue to explore would be the mortgage market. With the vast majority of the US market fixing for 30 years, any impact from rising interest rates on existing mortgaged homeowners is limited. The increase in rates will, however, hit a small subset of new buyers. The below chart shows the current 30 year fixed rate mortgage versus the average rate of interest on mortgage debt outstanding. 

  

  Source: Bloomberg (31 September 2023)

  It’s clear that the mortgage market is largely immune in the short to medium term. Increased interest rates will, however, hurt those consumers with short term debt exposure, credit cards, car financing etc.

  Where I see the transmission mechanism at work is through the corporate sector and its impact on employment. Here I am going share some research from the team at Soc Gen which presented some interesting charts.

  

  Source: Bloomberg, St Louis Fed, Societe Generale, M&G (October 2023)

  The above chart is somewhat counterintuitive. As interest rates have increased meaningfully, net interest payments have in fact come down.  The conclusion or explanation is that corporates have managed to borrow long, take these proceeds and invest in short dated government bonds or money market funds. Not ideal for business investment but a great carry trade. This is essentially the reverse of the banking model where banks borrow on short term variable rates and lend at long term fixed rates. It hasn’t worked particularly well for the regional banks but as always finance is a zero sum game.

  However, we need to take a look under the bonnet as there is more to this than meets the eye.

  

  Source: Societe Generale, Quant, Factset

  Soc Gen’s research suggests that the largest 10% of companies have thus far been insulated from the effect of higher rates given they have been able to borrow long term at better rates. This is perhaps why we have not seen the effects as profoundly in the headline data. However, the bottom 50% of companies have seen a meaningful impact from higher interest rates. Despite the bottom 50% representing a minority of the overall non-financial market cap, this will have a significant impact in the real economy, as these firms – large employers in the US economy – suffer with debt burdens at increased interest rates.

  

  Source: Bloomberg (October 2023)

  Bankruptcies are beginning to rise but the market remains relatively calm to date with high yield spreads to government bonds at the lows.

  

  Source: Bank of America Meryll Lynch, Bloomberg (October 2023)

  Small businesses are incredibly important to the economy as they employ almost 50% of all US employees. Any significant impact to these companies will have a material impact on employment.  The concern is that higher rates will start to hit home from 2025 when large swathes of outstanding debt comes up for renewal.  The below chart shows the debt schedule of the Russell 2000. As these firms begin to roll their outstanding debts at significantly higher rates, we should see defaults continue to tick up. The below schedule suggest this could be a few years out.

  

  Source: Societe Generale

  Perhaps for now the Zombies sleep, but beware, night is upon us.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 18:05

• "We Are Being Lied To": Marc Andreessen's Techno-Optimist Manifesto Warns Civilization Depends On More AI, Not Less
  “We Are Being Lied To”: Marc Andreessen’s Techno-Optimist Manifesto Warns Civilization Depends On More AI, Not Less

  Amidst the deafening anti-technology rhetoric, Marc Andreessen emerges as a champion for the power and potential of tech with his latest essay: ‘The Techno-Optimist Manifesto‘., which builds on claims Andreessen made in a June essay titled “Why AI Will Save the World“.

  

  “We are being lied to,” Andreessen begins…

  We are told that technology takes our jobs, reduces our wages, increases inequality, threatens our health, ruins the environment, degrades our society, corrupts our children, impairs our humanity, threatens our future, and is ever on the verge of  ruining everything.

  We are told to be angry, bitter, and resentful about  technology.

  We are told to be pessimistic. The myth of Prometheus – in various updated forms like Frankenstein, Oppenheimer, and Terminator – haunts our nightmares. We are told to denounce our birthright – our intelligence, our control over nature, our ability to build a better world.

  We are told to be miserable about the future.

  However, Andreessen argues that these are all lies.

  Instead, with technology as humanity’s spearhead, the Silicon Valley legend foresees a future driven by growth, invention, and unstoppable progress.

  “…we have the tools, systems, and ideas to advance to a far superior way of living and being.”

  And he calls on people to embrace technology and work together to create a better world.

  Markets, fueled by technology, offer a decentralized, complex system that promotes collective achievement and prosperity.

  “We believe central planning is a doom loop; markets are an upward spiral.”

  This so-called techno-capital machine, with its unwavering belief in continuous evolution and progress, aligns itself with the power of intelligence and energy.

  “We believe the techno-capital machine of markets and innovation never ends, but instead spirals continuously upward. Comparative advantage increases specialization and trade.

  Prices fall, freeing up purchasing power, creating demand. Falling prices benefit everyone who buys goods and services, which is to say everyone.

  Human wants and needs are endless, and entrepreneurs continuously create new goods and services to satisfy those wants and needs, deploying unlimited numbers of people and machines in the process.

  This upward spiral has been running for hundreds of years, despite continuous howling from Communists and Luddites. Indeed, as of 2019, before the temporary COVID disruption, the result was the largest number of jobs at the highest wages and the highest levels of material living standards in the history of the planet. “

  Most specifically, as technology evolves, Artificial Intelligence stands as the linchpin for a new age, heralding limitless possibilities.

  “Artificial Intelligence is our alchemy, our Philosopher’s Stone – we are literally making sand think.

  We believe Artificial Intelligence is best thought of as a universal problem solver. And we have a lot of problems to solve.”

  More ominously, Andreessen warns:

  “We believe any deceleration of AI will cost lives. Deaths that were preventable by the AI that was prevented from existing is a form of murder.”

  Andreessen argues that ‘Techno-Optimist’ enemies “are not bad people – but rather bad ideas.”

  “Our present society has been subjected to a mass demoralization campaign for six decades – against technology and against life – under varying names like “existential risk”, “sustainability”, “ESG”, “Sustainable Development Goals”, “social responsibility”, “stakeholder capitalism”, “Precautionary Principle”, “trust and safety”, “tech ethics”, “risk management”, “de-growth”, “the limits of growth”.

  This demoralization campaign is based on bad ideas of the past – zombie ideas, many derived from Communism, disastrous then and now – that have refused to die.

  …

  Our enemy is deceleration, de-growth, depopulation – the nihilistic wish, so trendy among our elites, for fewer people, less energy, and more suffering and death.”

  But, there is hope:

  “We will explain to people captured by these zombie ideas that their fears are unwarranted and the future is bright.

  We believe these captured people are suffering from ressentiment – a witches’ brew of resentment, bitterness, and rage that is causing them to hold mistaken values, values that are damaging to both themselves and the people they care about.

  We believe we must help them find their way out of their self-imposed labyrinth of pain.

  We invite everyone to join us in Techno-Optimism.

  The water is warm.”

  In conclusion, Andreessen’s Techno-Optimist Manifesto is a call to action for all those who believe in the power of technology’s ability to change the world for the better, and fight the techno-pessimist “enemies”.

  We believe in the words of David Deutsch: “We have a duty to be optimistic. Because the future is open, not predetermined and therefore cannot just be accepted: we are all responsible for what it holds. Thus it is our duty to fight for a better world.”

  One thing to bear mind amid all this ‘almost utopia’ evocation, Andreessen and his partners stand to make cajillions more dollars from any continued growth in AI given their early investments in companies innovating in that area. Talking his book? Of course. But, unarguably, there are some good points.

  Read the full ‘Manifesto’ here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 17:45

• Biden Joins Truth Social, Immediately Gets Pummelled Into Oblivion
  Biden Joins Truth Social, Immediately Gets Pummelled Into Oblivion

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  

  In what seems like an act of desperation, the Joe Biden campaign joined President Trump’s Truth Social platform, and posted a message asking for “converts”, prompting a torrent of responses essentially telling them where to go.

  In a second post, the Biden campaign used a clip of Ron DeSantis claiming Trump added $7.8T to the national debt, in a blatant attempt to sow division among conservatives:

  The campaign told Fox News that it is attempting to have “a little fun” on Truth Social, as well as holding “MAGA accountable on their own platform.”

  President Trump’s campaign spokesperson, Steven Cheung, said “Crooked Joe Biden and his team are finally acknowledging that Truth Social is hot as a pistol and the only place where real news happens.”

  Cheung added, “Unfortunately for Biden, his continuation of spreading misinformation to gaslight the American people in order to distract from his disastrous record won’t work and they’ll be ratio’d to oblivion.”

  How long before Biden’s handlers realise this just isn’t the place for them?

  The Biden campaign just posted its first Truth Social post, and I just became the first person to welcome them to the platform pic.twitter.com/UdYy6iGxrN

  — George (@BehizyTweets) October 16, 2023

  Joe Biden just joined Truth Social.

  *instant ratio* pic.twitter.com/DnYCJ2bo4P

  — Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 16, 2023

  “Stay out of MAGA country!”

  Joe Biden campaign is getting obliterated on Truth Social. pic.twitter.com/ZiDmBoDAbK

  — Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) October 16, 2023

  Meanwhile, Trump himself commented on a gag order placed on him by a DC judge, noting “I’ll be the only politician in history that runs with a gag order where I’m not allowed to criticize people, can you imagine that? I’m not allowed to criticize people.”

  He added that he’s been indicted “more than Alphonse Capone.”

  Former President Trump: “Today, a judge put on a gag order. I’ll be the only politician in history that runs with a gag order where I’m not allowed to criticize people.” pic.twitter.com/nl5nfq9XuO

  — CSPAN (@cspan) October 16, 2023

  In a separate appearance Trump said that he is willing to go to jail to beat Biden, noting “They think the only way they can catch me is to stop me from speaking, they want to take away my voice.”

  “This is weaponry, all being done because Joe Biden is losing the election, losing very, very badly to all of us in the polls. He’s losing badly,” Trump added.

  President Donald Trump in Iowa: “But what they don’t understand is that I am willing to go to jail if that’s what it takes for our country to win and become a democracy again.” pic.twitter.com/ELp0AgLQQi

  — MAGA War Room (@MAGAIncWarRoom) October 16, 2023

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  ALERT! In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch.

  We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here.

  Support my sponsor – Summit Vitamins – super charge your health and well being.

  Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 17:25

• Global Debt At Record Levels And The Free Lunch Is Over
  Global Debt At Record Levels And The Free Lunch Is Over

  Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

  Global debt rose $10 trillion to a record $397 trillion in the first half of 2023, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF).

  

  The big increase in debt occurred despite tightening credit conditions, and it is an increasingly worrisome problem because the “free lunch” of artificially low interest rates is over.

  Over the last decade, global debt has increased by a staggering $100 trillion.

  Combined government, household and corporate debt hit 336% of global GDP in the second quarter of this year. The global debt-to-GDP ratio has increased by 2 percentage points this year. Prior to 2023, the global debt-to-GDP ratio had declined seven straight quarters after reaching a record of 360% at the height of the global pandemic government lockdowns.

  About 80% of the new global debt was piled up by developed nations, with Japan, the US, Britain and France leading the way. Among emerging markets, the largest economies saw the biggest debt increases, including China, Brazil and India.

  “As higher rates and higher debt levels push government interest expenses higher, domestic debt strains are set to increase,” the IIF said in a statement.

  Peter Praet served as chief economist at the European Central Bank. He told Reuters that the debt levels are still sustainable, but the outlook is worrying given the fact that spending needs aren’t going to decline.

  You can take many, many countries today, and you will see that we are not far away from a public finances crisis.”

  Praet seems over-optimistic.

  The US government is over $33 trillion in debt. In fact, the Biden administration managed to add half a trillion dollars to the debt in just 20 days. Meanwhile, with rising interest rates, the federal government is now spending as much to make interest payments on the debt as it is for national defense.

  And there is no end to the borrowing and spending in sight.

  More than a decade of interest rates pushed artificially low by central banks worldwide incentivized a tidal wave of borrowing. This was intentional. The thinking was that borrowing and spending would “stimulate” a global economy dragged down first by the Great Recession and then by government-instituted pandemic policies. Nobody ever stopped to think the easy-money gravy train might run out of track.

  But as Fitch Ratings managing director Edward Parker put it, “That free lunch is over and interest payments are now rising faster than debt or revenue.”

  The US economy in particular was built on borrowing and spending. Easy money is its lifeblood. It simply can’t run without artificially low interest rates. The global economy is in much the same boat.

  That puts the Federal Reserve and other central banks between a rock and a hard place. They need to keep interest rates high to counteract the trillions of dollars they created and injected into the global economy as stimulus causing a rapid increase in price inflation. But these higher rates will ultimately break things in the borrow-and-spend economy.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 16:45

• WTI Extends Gains After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Draws
  WTI Extends Gains After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Draws

  Oil prices closed higher on the day, after a roller-coaster ride down this morning after Russia’s Central Bank reiterated expectations that OPEC+ may consider an increase in output at the beginning of 2024, but that was quickly pushed back on by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

  Crude traders are also tracking events in Barbados, where Venezuela’s government is expected to sign a deal with the US-backed opposition later on Tuesday. In exchange for a freer presidential election next year, the agreement could pave the way for the US to ease sanctions against the country, potentially boosting oil exports.

  “Traders remain on high alert” while oil remains in a holding pattern, said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth.

  “Many investors are not willing to make outright bets on crude in the current environment but are actively buying upside call options in the event crude supply is impacted. It is a low conviction, highly volatile trading environment.”

  WTI accelerated its rebound after the missile strike on a Gazan hospital.

  

  After last week’s large crude build (and draws at Cushing and in products), all eyes are for any signs of further demand destruction.

  API

  • Crude -4.38mm (+400k exp)

  • Cushing -1.00mm

  • Gasoline -1.58mm (-600k exp)

  • Distillates -612k (-1.2mm exp)

  API reports inventory drawdowns across the board with Crude stocks unexpectedly falling 4.4mm barrels (+400k exp) and Cushing getting ever closer to ‘tank bottoms’…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  WTI was hovering around $87.20 and extended gains after the draws…

  

  Bloomberg’s Javier Blas penned an interesting op-ed, blasting the fact that the Biden administration has allowed the SPR to run so low, saying that this ignorance could not come at a worst time.

  Henry Kissinger called it “the economic equivalent of the Sputnik challenge.” 

  Exactly 50 years ago today, the US found itself under economic assault after Arab nations weaponized oil, starting a petroleum embargo that brought the global economy to its knees.

  Kissinger, vowing America would never be blackmailed again, designed a shield against the oil weapon: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A stockpile containing hundreds of millions of barrels of crude, its function was to offset the impact of any future supply disruption, intentional or not. Half a century later, Washington has forgotten that lesson.

  The SPR today contains less than half the crude it had at its peak just over a decade ago. At about 350 million barrels, it’s at its lowest since 1983. To put what’s left into perspective, the US released about 270 million barrels over the last two years to cap oil prices.

  [ZH: For context, there is less than 20 days of supply left to meet current levels of demand… but we know SPR can’t go to ‘zero’ so good luck]

  

  If the SPR is a revolver, it has a final round left in the chamber — and that’s it.

  Worth a read…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/17/2023 – 16:37

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