Today’s News 18th September 2018

• All Euros Gravitate To Germany

  The Euro has been around for almost 20 years. The Russian transfer ruble survived 25 years. As GEFIRA explains, the two currencies have something in common: they were and are not a success story…

  

  The introduction of the transfer ruble was intended to enable free trade between the countries of the Eastern bloc. The creation of the common clearing system led to the exchange rates for the East German mark, zloty, forint, lev, and even the Mongolian tugrik being arbitrarily fixed by the Soviet Union, regardless of the purchasing power of the national currencies. In the 1960s, the Bulgarian lev was 20% undervalued and the Polish zloty about 45% overvalued. Since the transfer ruble was not yet convertible into Western currencies, it remained an illusion and a means by which the Soviet Union could enrich itself and save its budget at the expense of its satellite states: the Russians bought raw materials, goods, food for convertible currencies in the West and sold them to their “socialist friends” for transfer rubels. The international bank for economic cooperation, which sat in Moscow and handled all transactions in the transfer ruble, swept the real trade surpluses and deficits under the carpet. With the political change the common settlement currency came to to an end, and it turned out that the Soviet Union owed huge sums to its “brothers”.

  The situation with the euro is a bit different these days. There are certain similarities to the red dollar (that’s how some people called the transfer rubble).

  Firstly, all countries and citizens of the euro zone are constantly told that the euro is good for them all, which is not true. (The facts can be found in our other articles.

  Secondly, the euro favours the trade balances of some countries (Germany, France) but damages those of others (PIGS countries).

  Thirdly, the euro, as a transfer currency, contributes to the growth of mountains of debt.

  Fourthly, the euro zone has been artificially extended – fortunately not to Mongolia – but Italy and Greece did not and do not fulfil the Maastricht criteria. This was the reason for financial crises and will continue to be so in the future.

  There are also differences between the red dollar and the EU’s common currency.

  Firstly, the euro is not just a currency for accounting purposes, it is the only currency in force in the countries of the fraternal EU community. The dream of the communists has come true and the central banks of the eurozone members have become zombies that are supposedly allowed to participate in decision-making.

  Secondly, the mountains of debt are growing elsewhere – not the issuer/manager of the currency is in debt, but the “beneficiaries” who join the euro zone.

  Greece’s debt was handled in such a way that the country received a huge injection of money from the ECB; Italy’s and Spain’s debt will soon cause sleepless nights for decision-makers in Rome, Madrid, Brussels and Berlin.

  The counterpart of the Soviet transfer rouble in the EU is, to be precise, not the euro, but Target 2.

  

  It is a payment system in which banks process cross-border payments in real time. In Target 2, surpluses or deficits arise when money flows from one eurozone country to another. During the aggravation of the last euro debt crisis in 2011 and 2012, capital from particularly affected countries like Spain and Italy fled through the Target 2 banking market to countries like Germany and Luxembourg, which were considered safe havens. Germany’s claims against the poorer southern European countries reached 700 billion euros at the time (see chart below).

  

  The situation only returned to normal when ECB President Mario Draghi made it clear that, if necessary, he could adjust the balance sheet by printing additional money. Target 2 prevented the countries from collapsing. If Spain had stayed with Peso and Italy with Lira, they would have collapsed. Target 2 protected them from bankruptcy at the expense of German, Luxembourg and Dutch citizens. Since 2015 we have been observing the flight of capital to the north again, at a time when the money printing machine in Frankfurt am Main is working like crazy. This time, however, the capital flight is the result of Draghi starting QE in 2015 and the Bundesbank starting to buy back bonds on the market.

  The Italian central bank is dependent on the ECB and has to buy Italian government bonds. German investors have to exchange these bonds for euros in Italy and transfer the money via Target 2 to their German bank. The growing differences in the Target 2 balance sheets therefore result from this:

  1. that the Germans, who own the Italian bonds, dissolve them in Italy and transfer the money thus obtained to Germany. It is the consequence of the earlier problems with trade balances: Italians bought German products with their bonds in the past. Germany therefore has more debt claims than any of its neighbours.

  2. that Italians liquidate their bonds and send their money abroad – a usual flight of capital.

  So again enormously high debt claims arose on the German side. This year they have already reached a trillion euros, i.e. a huge amount of 25% of German GDP.

  The immense German Target 2 claims are not covered by any securities. If Italy or Spain withdraw from the euro zone, the Germans will be left to their own devices. There is still no unrest in Germany over this, because confidence in the Bundesbank is well known in Germany. Jaques Delors once said: “Not all Germans believe in God, but all believe in the Bundesbank.”

  Everyone probably believes in the ECB and Mario Draghi. At his press conference on 26 July this year, he wanted to have a calming effect when he spoke about Target 2: “It has nothing to do with the movement of capital from country to country”. In fact, it is only the clearing balances that can be overdrawn as long as no one leaves the euro zone.

  So Italy must not leave the euro zone. It is “too big to fall”: its debt amounts to 2.3 trillion euros (!), liabilities in Target 2 rose in June 2018 from -164.5 billion euros in 2015 to -481 billion euros. This means that Banca d’Italia owes the Bundesbank almost half a trillion euros!

  On the one hand there is Draghi, the Italian who uses his position to save his country, and on the other there are many German economists who criticise Target 2. Professor Hans Werner Sinn, for whom Target 2 is a cheque that cannot be cashed, is particularly well known. In one of his articles he describes the situation in Spain and Italy as follows:

  “In these countries radical socialists rule who don’t want to know anything about budgetary discipline, in Italy the old parties were swept away. The radical government of Five Stars and Lega wants to take out much more credit under the protection of the other euro countries than it is taking anyway and threatens to leave the euro if the EU refuses to do so.”

  Draghi takes a different view:

  “The euro is indispensable because it is strong, because societies want it (!), and it is in no one’s interest to doubt the sense of its existence. It is not worth discussing the abolition of what is inevitable (!). That can only do harm.”

  Comrade Draghi, of course, you are right, our transfer ruble is untouchable, and it is not worth discussing the existence of our (socialist?) community and currency. It will continue to exist for another 1000 years!

  In 1990, Russia owed Germany 6.4 billion transfer rubles (7.4 billion euros) on account of its foreign trade balances. Schröder gave Putin 7.1 billion, and Russia only paid back 500 million euros. How much will Merkel give away to the south if something goes badly?

  

• EU Does Nothing To Stop US Meddling In Its Elections

  Authored by Alex Gorka via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  The hackneyed old stories about the threat of Russian “meddling” in the elections of other countries have gone stale. Since no real evidence has ever been presented, they don’t attract much public attention anymore. It is generally believed that poor Europe is not ready to stop Russia, but it should be, as the European parliamentary election scheduled for May 2019 is drawing closer. Warnings have been issued, alarm bells sounded, and recommendations presented by think tanks. Former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen warned about the “Russia threat” as far back as last March. As there was nothing to substantiate his statement, one can only assume that the former official has been endowed with the gift of clairvoyance.

  

  Currently Europe under threat from “populist and neo-Nazi formations” and the only way to counter it is to stay united. In other words, there must be no EU reforms, no policy changes, those Brussels-based pooh-bahs will go on enjoying their serene lives tut-tutting about the nefarious plans of those who oppose them, and refugees will be free to pour in until the EU explodes.

  Has Russia done anything specifically to provoke the accusations that it has plans to meddle in the European election race? Not a thing, but there is somebody else who has.

  No, the EU leadership is not dismayed enough to raise a hue and cry over the scandalous remarks made by US Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell. It sees no need to do anything about it. In June, the ambassador did not shy away from openly promising to use his office to help far-right nationalists inspired by Donald Trump take power across Europe! In an interview with Breitbart News, Richard Grenell said he was “excited” by the rise of far-right parties on the continent and wanted “to empower other conservatives throughout Europe, other leaders.” Those were his literal words!

  If that’s not interference, then what is? But no, no warning has been issued about the danger of US meddling in Europe’s May elections. Just imagine what would happen if a Russian ambassador to an EU country publicly said such a thing! Mr. Grenell did not see anything wrong with praising the Austrian government coalition, which includes the Freedom Party that was formed in the 1950s by a former Nazi officer. He actually lectured the Germans about what their government should look like. It seems like times have changed and intervening in European politics on behalf of far-right leaders has become the norm, at least for the ambassadors of the United States.

  George Soros, a US billionaire who became one of the world’s wealthiest people by managing hedge funds and betting on currency fluctuations, has meddled in European elections many times. The last Italian election is one example. His Open Society Foundations spend $940 million a year in 100 countries in pursuit of political goals. He has been asked to leave Russia and Hungary, the country of his birth, for interfering in politics. The “Soros network” has great influence in the European Parliament and in other European Union institutions. It’s an open secret that the billionaire is a vehicle used by the US State Department to meddle in other countries’ internal affairs. USAID and the Soros network often team up. Last year, six US senators signed a letter asking the State Department to look into government funding of Soros-backed organizations, but to no avail. The State Department always protects the financier.

  Last year, the “Soros list” was made public. It contained the names of 226 MEPs from all sides of political spectrum who are eager to promote the ideas of Soros, such as the integration of Ukraine into the EU, and, of course, taking a stand against Russia. The lawmakers on the list hold roughly one-third of the seats in the European Parliament! They vote as they are told by a US tycoon. But no, this fact has been swept into the shadows. there is no threat to democracy, no negative impact on any elections — nothing to worry about. Can anybody imagine what would happen if it were revealed that a Russian oligarch with close ties to the government was keeping a list of “allied” European politicians? Europe is adamant about countering foreign influence and the “threat” coming from … Russia. The fact that one-third of MEPs are “allied” with George Soros is not a big thing. It’s Moscow’s alleged “meddling” that is keeping the EU leaders and media magnates from sleeping.

  Steve Bannon, a former adviser to President Trump, is pretty busy at present. He is in the process of setting up a non-profit Brussels-based foundation called The Movement, to support right-wing anti-EU parties during the European Parliament races. The British Ukip party has already pledged to work with it. The short-term goal is to produce a European Parliament in which every third lawmaker belongs to a right-wing “supergroup,” so that it will be possible to disrupt parliamentary proceedings. “Right-wing populist nationalism is what will happen. That’s what will govern,” Steve Bannon told the Daily Beast. “You’re going to have individual nation states with their own identities, their own borders.” According to the source, “The operation is also supposed to serve as a link between Europe’s right-wing movements and the pro-Trump Freedom Caucus in the US.”

  He wants a well-financed, centralized operation in order to bring right-wingers together. The Daily Beast quotes Raheem Kassam, a former Breitbart editor, who said,“Forget your Merkels.” According to him, “Soros and Bannon are going to be the two biggest players in European politics for years to come.” What would Europeans say if a formerly highly placed Russian official with close ties to the president set up a political movement to openly influence the Old World’s political life?

  The Movement would challenge the work of philanthropist George Soros, and his liberal Open Society Foundations (OSF). If they succeed, Americans closely linked to the US government will control European mainstream politics. One-third (Bannon) plus one-third (Soros) equals two-thirds — an overwhelming majority consisting of right-wingers and liberals.

  The US involvement in European politics is so evident and extensive that talking about Russian “meddling” sounds farcical. The Americans are free to do anything they want. It never occurs to European leaders to sound the alarm and put the issue on the EU’s security agenda. They are too busy looking the other way while turning a blind eye to the fact that the meddling they fear so much has already been taking place without hindrance for a very long time indeed.

  

• Prosecutors Can Pursue First Criminal Fraud Case Involving An ICO, Judge Rules

  What began one year ago as a civil action brought by the SEC against a ICO founder accused of defrauding his clients has transformed into the first criminal fraud proceeding against an ICO – all thanks to a judge’s ruling that the charges brought by the DOJ can proceed.

  

  Regular readers may remember when we reported last September that the SEC was seeking to ban businessman Maksim Zaslavskiy from participating in any future crypto-related endeavors and also levy a hefty fine, after buyers of two ICOs organized by Zaslavskiy claimed that he had swindled them out of hundreds of thousands of dollars. While the proceedings against Zaslavskiy were initially strictly civil, at some point during the intervening months, the DOJ decided to get involved. And now, it’s seeking what would be the first criminal conviction of an ICO fraudster in the US. Zaslavskiy allegedly launched two ICOs claiming that the tokens would be backed by diamonds and real estate. But his buyers soon learned that the underlying assets never existed. Zaslavskiy was initially accused by the SEC of defrauding his clients of $300,000 via two ICO schemes. The FBI has frozen his assets and those belonging to his companies, REcoin Group Foundation and DRC World. Zaslavskiy’s investors never received their digital tokens, and there is no evidence that he ever spent the money buying the underlying assets that he had promised. 

  Here’s more from our original post:

  According to the SEC’s complaint, investors in REcoin Group Foundation and DRC World (also known as Diamond Reserve Club) were told (presumably by Zaslavskiy) that they could expect sizeable returns from the companies’ operations, when neither had any real operations to speak of.

  While the SEC had initially hoped to bust Zaslavskiy for selling unlicensed securities (the SEC ruled in July 2017 in a report on the collapse of the DAO, a type of crypto-based crowdfunding vehicle, that ICO tokens were indeed securities, and as such much be registered with the agency), the DOJ soon decided to press charges of securities fraud. However, Zaslavskiy’s legal team filed a motion to dismiss the case in March based on the argument that the tokens involved were, in fact, currencies, and therefore securities laws should not apply.

  Now, a federal judge has ruled that the prosecution can move forward – though it will ultimately be up to a jury to decide whether the ICO tokens in question should be considered securities by law, Bloomberg reported.

  The New York case, which prosecutors said was the first criminal prosecution of its kind, involves Maksim Zaslavskiy. The Brooklyn businessman was charged with conspiracy and two counts of securities fraud for his role in allegedly defrauding investors in two initial coin offerings. He’d argued that the ICOs at issue weren’t securities but instead currencies. Zaslavskiy also said securities law was too vague to be applied to initial coin offerings.

  In his ruling Tuesday, the judge said it will ultimately be up to the jury to decide whether the ICO at issue was a security, but the allegations in the indictment would support such a finding. The judge’s decision focused on the particulars of Zaslavskiy’s alleged ICOs, and not on other ICO transactions, but if upheld on appeal, the ruling could have broader ramifications.

  “Per the indictment, no diamonds or real estate, or any coins, tokens, or currency of any imaginable sort, ever existed — despite promises made to investors to the contrary,” Dearie said in his ruling. “Simply labeling an investment opportunity as a ‘virtual currency’ or ‘cryptocurrency’ does not transform an investment contract — a security — into a currency.”

  The case could have serious repercussions for the still-thriving ICO industry. Per Reuters, Dearie’s opinion and other filings in the case did not cite any previous court decisions, and back in March, another federal judge in Brooklyn ruled that ICO tokens could also be regulated by the CFTC. Crypto regulation in the US is still in the early stages of development, and much of the case law remains to be determined.

  But one thing is for certain: blockchain stalwarts will be closely watching the outcome of this case. A date for a trial has not yet been set, and it’s unclear whether Zaslavskiy’s attorneys will attempt to reach a settlement. If we had to guess, we’d imagine that Zaslavskiy’s attorneys would push for a trial. That’s because, with all of the conservative pro-business judges being appointed by the Trump administration (including Brett Kavanaugh, who is expected to be confirmed to the Supreme Court), the businessmen and women running these ICOs have a solid chance of winning a favorable ruling on appeal, even asmore than half of the ICOs launched last year have already failed.

   

  

• Turkish Strategy In Northern Syria: Erdogan's Path To Building A Neo-Ottoman Empire

  Via SouthFront.org,

  

  GENERAL ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION

  In order to understand Turkey’s approach toward the conflict in Syria, one first needs to explain the military situation there as of September 2018.

  There are localized clashes between militant groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in northern Latakia and southern Idlib. The Syrian Arab Air Force and the Russian Aerospace Forces are carrying out strikes on weapon depots, equipment and UAV workshops and key facilities belonging to militants in southern and southwestern Idlib.

  These as well as deployment of additional SAA units at the contact line between the militant-held and government-held areas are described by pro-militant sources as clear sings of the upcoming SAA operation to defeat Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other al-Qaeda-like factions there.

  In Suweida and Rif Dimashq, the SAA is still working to eliminate ISIS cells operating in the desert area. Separate ISIS attacks on the SAA and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) happen time to time.

  In those parts of Raqqa and Deir Ezzor provinces, which are controlled by the Kurdish-dominated SDF, the health care system has been totally destroyed, and no effort is being made to restore major infrastructure. Many of the areas under SDF control suffer from epidemics due to the shortage of clean water, and nearly total absence of medical services. The situation particularly bad, when it comes to restoring normal life and services. Local authorities, who should be involved in these matters, are mainly concerned with their own well-being. Kurdish leaders still view their main task as the creation of an independent enclave and later their own state in these territories. This is why their main concern is to keep the political and military dominance in the Arab-populated area.

  

  Click to see the full-size image

  Negotiations between Damascus and the Kurds are continuing at a slow pace. The Kurdish political leadership are seeking to get concessions from Damascus, for example some kind of federation within Syria.

  Afrin, controlled by the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and Ankara proxies, is experiencing low-intensity guerilla war. Cells of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) regularly carry out bombings and run attacks on Turkey-led forces.

  The TAF has introduced additional security measures, increased the number of UAVs deployed and imposed practice of burning plots close to cities to react to YPG raids more quickly. However, the YPG continues a limited partisan war in Afrin, but without having sufficient forces to return it to own control.

  At the regional level, Ankara wants to position itself as the most important player in the matter of resolving the Syrian crisis. Turkey is actively supporting only those formations in Syria, which are loyal to and affiliated with it. The purpose is to turn Syria into a country loyal to Turkey, to neutralize Kurdish armed formations, to replace the Assad government, and to create a reliable pathway for energy supplies, especially oil, to Turkey. To achieve these goals, Ankara is using the rhetoric of counter-terrorism, though in reality it will support any organization ready to help to achieve its goals.

  On the local level, Turkey’s goals and tasks consist of two parts:

  The first is to deal with Kurdish armed formations in northern Syria. Turkey is directly fighting Kurdish armed groups in northern Syria, mainly the YPG. The YPG is the core of the US-backed SDF. At the same time, the YPG is linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) both military and politically. [the YPG’s political wing, the PYD, is part of the Kurdistan Communities Union (also known KCK) together with PKK] Turkey alongside with the US and many other states consider the PKK as a terrorist group. Despite this, the YPG and the PYD as a dominating part of the SDF receive support from the US.

  The announcement that SDF bases would be used to prepare so-called “border security forces” (BSF), which would protect SDF/YPG-occupied parts of Syria, provoked a sharply negative reaction in Ankara, which accused the US of creating a “terrorist army” on the border with Turkey. If the BSF is successfully established, it would become an important step of the PYD/YPG, backed by the US, en route to establish a Kurdish semi-independent state within Syrian territory. This scenario is unacceptable for Turkey because such a state will pose a direct threat to its national security because of deep ties between the PYD/YPG and the PKK. This became one of the key reasons behind Turkey’s Operation Olive Branch against the YPG in the Syrian area of Afrin. Ahead of the operation the PYD/YPG leadership in Afrin has got multiple suggestions from the Damascus government to settle the situation by a peaceful way allowing the Syrian Army to deploy on the border with Turkey thus preventing the operation. However, all these suggestions have been rejected. After the start of the Turkish operation, the PYD accused Russia of colluding with Ankara to harm the Kurdish population.

  From January 20 to March 24, 2018, the TAF and Turkish-backed militant groups delivered a devastating blow to the YPG in Afrin and captured most of the area. Most of the YPG members and their supporters had fled to the government-controlled part of Aleppo province. The Turkish advance stopped when its forces reached positions of the Syrian Army.

  This was the second Turkish military operation carried out in northern Syria. The first one, dubbed Operation Euphrates Shield, took place in the al-Bab-Azaz-Jarabulus triangle from August 24, 2016 to March 29, 2017. The operation followed an attempt by Kurdish armed factions to link up their areas in northwestern and northeastern Syria and put an end to these plans.

  The PYD is the most influential, but not the only Kurdish political party in northern Syria. In January 2018 the PYD did not participate in the Russian-backed Sochi Congress for Syrian Dialogue. Turkey was against this, though it approved presence of another Syrian Kurdish political party – the Kurdish National Council (ENKS).

  The second goal is to keep and expand influence in the province of Idlib. The TAF started entering the province in October 2017 in the framework of the de-escalation zone agreement reached by Ankara, Teheran and Moscow in the Astana talks format. Since then, they have established 12 observation posts in the de-escalation zone. Russia have established 10 and Iran 7 posts near the de-escalation zone under the same agreement.

  

  Click to see the full-size image

  On May 28, 2018, 11 groups within the Turkish-backed part of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) announced the creation of the National Liberation Front (NLF) also known as Jabhat al-Wataniya lil-Tahrir. The merger was announced by Faylaq-al-Sham, the 1st and 2nd Coastal Divisions, the 1st Infantry Division, the Free Idlib Army, Jaysh al-Nasr, the Second Army, Jaysh al-Nukhba, Liwaal-Shuhdaal-Islam, Liwa Al-Hur and the 23rd Division. The NLF is headed by Faylaq-al-Sham leader, Colonel Fadlallahаl-Haji.

  

  National Liberation Front logo

  On the same day, an NLF official announced that the Turkey-created force will take over the Idlib de-escalation zone. Russia, Turkey, and Iran will monitor the situation for 6-12 months, after which a new phase will follow. All the groups in the region will be disbanded and a single army on the basis of the NLF will be created. Idlib will be governed by local Turkish-controlled councils with minimal influence from Russia and Iran, said Omar Khatzayafah.

  Turkish forces and their proxies have contributed no efforts to combat Hayat Tahrir al-Sham influence, which is excluded from the de-escalation. In turn, it is carrying out active attempts to increase its influence in area and save the core of the anti-Assad forces. According to available data, Turkey is conducting active negotiations with the group’s leader, Abu Muhammed al-Julani, in an attempt to convince him to rebrand the group once again and merge with the Turkey-led “opposition”. Ankara also allowed the NFL and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to carry out a large-scale crackdown on public figures, field commanders and activists supporting an idea of possible peaceful reconciliation with the Damascus government.

  

  Hayat Tahrir al-Sham members and supporters are in Idlib

  At the same time, the security situation in the militant-controlled part of Idlib province remains poor. Over the past few months, the area has been hit by multiple bombings and assassinations aimed at both civilian and militant targets.

  MEANS USED BY TURKEY TO ACHIEVE ITS AIMS

  When the Syrian conflict began, Turkey turned its own territory, particularly the border zone, into infrastructure used to this day by armed formations for training, rest, and medical support. The Istanbul-Gaziantep route, unofficially dubbed the “jihad-express”, was the main stream of jihadists heading for Syria in 2014-16. The Kilis-Azaz border crossing was also a major logistical hub for militants moving to Syria. Moreover, many Turkish border settlements were de-facto bases where militants were assembled and prepared for crossing the border.

  A letter dated March 15, 2013 and signed by Turkey’s Minister of the Interior Muammer Guler, stating that Hatay province was acquiring strategic importance in the context of the transfer of militants from Turkey to Syria, deserves separate treatment. The enabling of the movement within the region, the training and provision of medical aid to wounded fighters, and their crossing of the border into Syria, was mainly conducted through this province. According to the letter, Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) and other organizations, which received corresponding authority, would coordinate the work with Hatay province leadership. When transitioning fighters through Hatay using land or air transport and with the participation of various civilian entities, heightened security measures were required. The letter notes that it is advantageous to place the fighters in hostels run by the Ministry of Religious Affairs and government hotels in the province, on direct instructions from the MIT. Similar letters were sent to the Mardin, Urfa, and Antepe provinces.

  Hatay hosts the camp for SAA deserters in Apaidin, only 2km from the Syrian border. In September 2012, this camp was considered the FSA headquarters, according to Mehmet Ali Ediboglu, a member of the Republican People’s Party. At that time, there were about 300 former Syrian soldiers and police, including about 30 generals, in the camp.

  In September 2013, a Deutsche Welle report mentioned that hundreds of fighters from Al-Qaeda-affiliated organizations were delivered by Turkish ambulances from Syria to the Ceylinpinar hospital, and those who suffered more serious wounds were delivered to the Balikdigol hospital in Sanliurfa province. In August 2014, the Daily Mail published an article about the border town of Reyhanli, which was part of the pipeline for militants into Syria and where Turkish border guards turned a blind eye. ISIS militants rested in the city itself before crossing the border, military uniforms, and possibly also weapons, were being sold right on the streets.

  Starting in March 2015, “Syrian rebels” were trained with the help of US and Turkish soldiers at a base in Kirsehir in central Turkey. The US announced that they would fight against ISIS, but representatives of the Turkish opposition said that the trained militants would mainly fight against the Assad government.

  The Turkish authorities confirmed in March 2015 the fact of a wounded ISIS field commander, who was a Turkish citizen, undergoing treatment in the hospital in Denizli.

  As of 2016, the city of Antalya in Hatay hosted a training camp for FSA members, who were fighting participating in Operation Euphrates Shield.

  The media more than once reported the presence of a training camp for “rebels” in Adana province, 8km from the Incirlik airbase. Turkish air force officials did not comment on these reports, and journalists had no access to the base. The official justification of this approach was that the refugees and opposition fighters ought to have free movement across the border.

  

  Members of Jabhat al-Nusra

  Two main forces capitalizing on this situation were Jabhat al-Nusra (now known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) and ISIS receiving recruits, funds and weapons through Turkish territory. Furthermore, Ankara’s ties to these groups are based not only on fighting Assad, but also on economic relations, and neither Turkish soldiers nor intelligence professionals have any illusions concerning this situation.

  It’s also telling that since the start of the conflict, Turkey has sharply increased the intake of water from the Euphrates, which soon caused many Syrian cities and villages to suffer from serious shortages. As soon as the SDF took control of northeastern Syria, the intake of water reached its maximum levels. However, when ISIS was in control of this area, Turkey was keeping the water and electricity supply.

  Another major feature of the Turkish collaboration with ISIS was the matter of the security of the Tomb of Suleyman Shah, which caused disagreements among the hardened Islamists within ISIS, since in their interpretation of Islam, adoration of the dead is a sign of lack of belief and of polytheism. However, for some reason the tomb was jointly guarded by ISIS militants and Turkish soldiers. One can say with absolute certainty that there existed an agreement which assigned ISIS the role of protectors in exchange for free movement of militants from Turkey to Syria and back.

  More evidence is provided by interviews with ISIS fighters captured by the SDF. One of them was a Libyan named Osman. He was first sent on a short 22-day initial training in Bani-Valid, Libya. Then he was trained with other ISIS recruits in Misrata for 25 days. Days before the graduation Osman was hit from a PKM by a “comrade in arms”, which meant spending another 22 days in Misrata hospital. During that time he was given a fake Libyan passport and sent for treatment in Medicana International, a large Turkish hospital in the Melik Duzu quarter of Istanbul. Osman confirmed the existence of an air corridor from Libya to Turkey for ISIS militants from Africa, Tunisia, and other Maghreb countries, who wished to join their “brothers” in Syria. Wounded fighters were sent from Libya to Turkey on a private plane. “We were helped during boarding,” said Osman. Then I realized that everyone else is also severely wounded, some are even paralyzed.” At the Ataturk Airport in Istanbul ISIS fighters were met by ambulances. Soon all the wounded were placed in Turkish hospitals.

  “We were loaded singly and in pairs, after which I found myself at Medicana International”. Osman said that all ISIS movements are under Turkish intelligence oversight. They are also concerned with ensuring the wounded militants’ security. “I once had to be examined by a neurologist, for which I had to be transported to a different hospital. On the way to the hospital I was accompanied by two intelligence officers, armed with pistols.” After the treatment which took another 4 months, he was brought to a hotel close to the hospital, then to a house in the European part of Istanbul. Three days later he was contacted by a militant called Abu Masab al-Iraqi, and they met in the Ibrahim Khalil quarter of the city where he and other mercenaries were told they were going to get tickets for a plane to Urfu. Many ISIS militants and their families and children had already assembled there. Osman indicated the particular importance of two cities, Tel Abyad and Jarablus, in supplying ISIS. This corridor funneled the biggest influx of mercenaries from Turkey to Syria under the supervision of Turkish intelligence and the army. In addition to fighters, it was also used to ship weapons, munitions and uniforms.

  Another ISIS member (name unknown) said the following: “My Sudanese friend by the name Khaled Sali who was in ISIS and who lived in Azzaz, proposed I join ISIS too. I agreed because I didn’t know about other formations. He then accompanied me to Khartoum airport, from where I flew to Istanbul. There I was met by local ISIS coordinators and set me up in a hotel whose name I don’t remember. After then I was flown by a Turkish domestic airline to Gaziantep, then to Kilis on the border with Syria. My coordinator was already waiting for me in Azzaz. Crossing the border was simpler than simple. No soldiers, no police, no Turkish authorities. And if they were there, it means we crossed right under their noses.”

  Israeli military intelligence head, Major-General Aviv Kochavi said in January 2014 that the cities of Karaman, Osmaniye, and Sanliurfa house Al-Qaeda camps, which are also used as staging points.

  After the start of the Russian military operation in Syria, and multiple public revelations of Turkish links to the terrorists, like participation in the ISIS oil business, free movement of these terrorists across the border ceased. Otherwise the Erdogan government would have become a public sponsor of terrorism, which was unacceptable for Erdogan’s image. But the main reason for the closure of the border crossing was the series of defeats ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra suffered, Turkey’s re-evaluation of its strategy in Syria under Russian pressure, and a reduction in the flow of refugees.

  Pro-Turkish groups and attempts to create a unified opposition in northern Syria

  Turkey currently uses a whole range of military instruments to advance its interests. During Operation Olive Branch in January-March 2018, Turkey involved 12 following groups as a core of its proxy force: the Hamza Division, Liwa Sultan Murad, Faylaq ash-Sham, Jaysh al-Nasr, Jaysh al-Nukhba, Jabhat al-Aisalat wal-Tanmia, the 23rd Division, the 1st Coastal Division, the 2nd Coastal Division, the Free Idlib Army, the 2nd Army and Liwa Shuhada al-Islam. An estimated manpower of these groups is 31,200. Besides this, the operation also involved fighters from other groups, like Ahrar al-Sham, the Sham Legion and others. Some of these groups are now part of the National Liberation Front, created in an attempt to boost combat potential and numeric strength of pro-Turkey bloc in the province of Idlib.

  HINT: A few words about the National Liberation Front in the context of Turkish policy. It is yet another attempt by Ankara to take control of a region which is the most problem-ridden de-escalation zone (Idlib), and where al-Qaeda jihadists from HTS have much influence. In the event of direct fighting against HTS, Turkey would face the risk of being bogged down in a prolonged, hard campaign. Turkish troops already have negative experiences associated with Euphrates Shield, where Turkish forces and allied Syrian militants had difficulty in expelling ISIS out of Al-Bab, suffering heavy personnel and equipment losses. In the event of an NLF success in Idlib, Turkey would avoid unnecessary losses and obtain the means of waging military operations ostensibly using a proxy. Moreover, Turkey would also get a “bridgehead” in Syria, which could be used to effectively influence the course of the conflict and the development of the situation in northern Syria.

  Apart from that, the presence of NLF formations has economic significance. They protect the Aleppo-Hama road, which is the commercial route from Turkey to Jordan and to Persian Gulf states. Some of these goods will remain in Syria. With Syrian industry destroyed, Turkish goods can achieve dominance.

  Another entity created in order to overcome the divisions plaguing the many groups controlled by Ankara is the Syrian National Army (SNA).

  

  A Turkish-staged ceremony of the SNA announcement

  It was intended to serve as a force against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Idlib if negotiations between Turkey and the group fail. The SNA will also participate in operations against Kurdish armed groups and will be responsible for consolidating the territories captured by Turkey-led forces. Finally, the creation of the SNA is an effort to re-brand so-called democratic activists after they have tarnished their image with war crimes or with collaboration with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

  As of today, the SNA is mainly operating in the al-Bab-Azaz-Jarabulus triangle and in Afrin. When operations in northern Syria are complete, all SNA forces from Jarablus to Idlib should be under a single command.

  The main force of the SNA are its 1, 2, and 3 Corps. The SNA formation is proceeding parallel to that of the National Liberation Front. The SNA, formed on May 30, 2017 as a separate force from the FSA, is a new army divided into three corps, consisting of 36 opposition groups under the aegis of the FSA. As of January 2018, it was still being formed and included 25,000 members.

  The SNA has received and is receiving support from Liwa Suquoral-Shimal, Ahraral-Sharqiyya, Jaysh al-Nukhba, Faylaq ash-Sham, Liwa Sultan Suleiman Shah, Liwa Sultan Mehmed Fatih, Liwa al-Vakkas, Jabhat Shamiyah, Liwa Muntassir Billah, Liwa Sultan Murad, Jayshal-Shimal, Liwa Samarkand, the 23rd Division, the 9th Division, Fevjal-Mustafa, Liwaal-Awwal al-Magahaweer, Liwa Usudul-Fatiheen, Jayshal-Ahfad, Festaqem Kema Umrit, the Hamza Division, Liwa Asifat Hazm, Jabhat al-Aisalat wal-Tanmia, Jayshal-Nasr, Liwa Hasakah Shield, Jaysh al-Sharqiyya, Liwaal-Fatih, Liwa Sultan Osman, Rejalal-Harb, Liwa al-Shimal, the 5th Regiment, Jaysh al-Thani and Tacammu Adl.

  The first reports of the Turkey-controlled Free Syrian Police (FSP) appeared in January 2017. Police units were formed in Jarablus as part of Operation Euphrates Shield, in order to help the FSA in their rear areas. By October 25, 2017, the Turkey Police Academy had graduated 5,631 Syrian police officers in 5 different schools, according to Anadolu Agency police sources. Syrian policemen were trained to provide security and protection in regions covered by the operation. Some 20% of the participants received SWAT training.

  Starting on May 10, 2018, after training in Turkey 620 FSP are ensuring security in north-west Afrin. The cadets, aged between 18 and 45, undergo a month-long training regimen, according to Anadolu. A video posted by Yeni Safak newspaper in January 2017 showed a group of security forces dressed in Turkish police uniforms, chanting “long live Turkey, long live Erdogan and long live a free Syria.”

  Türkiye’de eğitim gören Suriyeli polis güçleri, Fırat Kalkanı Harekatı ile kurtulan bölgelerde görev yapacak. pic.twitter.com/lX7kITEegG

  — Yeni Şafak (@yenisafak) January 22, 2017

  In the autumn of 2018, the situation in Idlib and nearby militant-held areas become the main point of attention of the international media covering the conflict in Syria. The rationale for Turkey’s collaboration with Idlib armed groups is the desire to expand its own influence, while preserving the radical segment of these formations as a shock force to continue exerting pressure on the Assad government, Iran and Russia.

  The pattern of working with these groups in the province is set up as follows:

  • Small armed groups which did well in Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch are under nearly full operational control;

  • Groups united around Ahrar al-Sham, known as the Syrian Liberation Front, are under partial control;

  • Al Qaeda in Syria (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and their allies) are in a state of “fruitful cooperation”, with less than total control (less than the SLF);

  • The future of small groups not included in the above categories due to their links with ISIS and al-Qaeda (for example, the remnants of Jund al-Aqsa or Hilf Nusrat al-Islam) is yet to be determined.

  • ISIS cells in Idlib. Turkey and its local allies have been fighting them with varying success. The problem is that, ideologically, the core of pro-Turkish groups and their allies is quite similar to ISIS. This is made worse by the horrifying level of corruption in and violence by the security forces of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian Liberation Front, which are the only forces capable of relatively significant action against ISIS cells.

  Hayat Tahrir al-Sham remains the dominant military force in Idlib, alongside the Syrian Liberation Front. The problem of the Turkish approach is that the stronger the force, the harder it is to control it “behind closed doors” without offering guarantees. Hence various “PR armies” such as the SNA. While sabotaging the fight against terrorists, Ankara is strenuously pretending it is forming the “moderate opposition”. In the short term the odds of the pro-Turkey “moderate opposition” defeating terrorism in Idlib with Ankara’s help are minimal. The Turkish stance toward a possible military operation against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies in Idlib by the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance is proof of it, if additional proof were needed.

  The total amount of financing provided to militant groups in Syria from Turkey has never been assessed, but it’s in the tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars a year. It has varied at different stages of conflict, and was disbursed through various sources.

  In 2012-2016, the main source of financing was aid from foreign sponsors. Ankara was not too shy to use funds from the US, Persian Gulf monarchies, domestic or foreign volunteers supporting these or other groups. One should also include the CIA program worth $500 million to train “Syrian insurgents”. The 2015-16 migration crisis led to EU-Turkey negotiations on financial aid to Ankara, in return for which Turkey housed the refugees. Turkey asked for €30 billion up front, to be followed by annual payments of €3 billion, but it’s not known how much Turkey actually received, though there was an agreement on €3 billion in 2016 and another €3 by 2018. Considering the numerous world media reports on the terrible conditions for refugees in Turkey, it’s likely the money is mostly being used to finance groups fighting Assad, while refugees are given the lowest priority. Moreover, the Turkish Ministry of Defense and the MIT probably have budget items which are used to finance armed groups, though these would obviously be classified.

  As the flow of jihadists and activities of volunteers declined, opposition groups fighting in Syria apparently shifted to self-sufficiency, which looks as follows: Turkey provides weapons, munitions, equipment, transportation and training. In return it receives resources from the occupied territory—oil, agricultural and industrial products. The priority is given to Turkey-manufactured goods in trade on occupied territory.

  Turkey also continues to play the role of a clearing house for financing, though now to a lesser extent. One should note the widespread hawala system, an informal financial accounting system which is based on a balance of mutual credits and obligations among brokers and which is widespread in Muslim countries. The Money Services Business is also widespread in Turkey. What they all have in common is an absence of accounting transparency as understood in the West. For example: during a chat on Whats App or another messenger, an individual raising funds indicates the transfer should take place through an entity working with Western Union in Turkey. The recommended contribution varies from $500 and $9500, can be repeated, and is difficult to track. The fund-raiser provides contact information and asks the sponsor to provide a secret code after the transfer in order to collect the money in a town on the Syrian border.

  Turkey uses various range of ideologically divided groups ranging from neo-osmanist and pan-turkic to ultra-radical Islamist ones, which are incompatible with the current Syrian government. This shows that in order to fulfill his own political ambitions, Erdogan is ready to make alliances with almost anybody who may serve his interests.

  According to UNHCR, in April 2018 there were 3.9 million refugees from Syria in Turkey. Such a number of people cannot help but attract the attention of the Turkish military and intelligence for the purpose of ideological indoctrination and recruitment to fight a war for the new Syria, as envisioned by Erdogan.

  A more detailed look at some Turkish-backed groups operating in northern Syria:

  Hamza Division. Syrian nationalism. It numbered about 2,200 in September 2017 according to its own reports, and consists mostly of Arabs, Syrian Turkmen, and Kurds. It has its HQ in Mare, Aleppo province, where it operates and its commander in September 2017 was Abdullah Halawa. It cooperates with the Northern Thunder Brigade, the Mare’ Resistance Brigade, the Special Operations Brigade, the Dhi Qar Brigade and the Kurdish Falcons Brigade.

  Liwa Sultan Murad. Pan-Turkishm. In 2016, it claimed to have 1,300 troops in 2016, mostly Syrian Turkmen and Arabs. Together with other Turkmen organizations, such as Liwa Sultan Suleiman Shah, Liwa Sultan Mehmed Fatih and Liwa Sultan Osman, it forms the Sultan Murad bloc. According to Turkish sources, Liwa Sultan Mehmed Fatih units undergo training in Turkey itself, though the location of the camp is unknown. It has its HQ in Al-Bab, Aleppo province. The commander as of November 2017 was Mahmoud al-Hajj Hassan.

  Faylaq ash-Sham. Salafism. It has about 4,000 members, mostly Arabs. It’s based in Aleppo province, but its zone of responsibility also includes Idlib, Latakia, Hama, and Homs provinces. The commander as of early 2018 was Yasser Abdul Rahim, who was a key field commander during Operation Olive Branch. In February 2018 he was replaced by Khaldun Mador, and currently the commander is Colonel Fadlallahal-Haji. This formation served as the base for the National Liberation Front and the commander of Faylaq ash-Sham became the commander of this new formation. In June 2018 it was joined by Liwa Shuhada al-Islam, who numbers 799. It collaborates with the Army of Mujahideen, the Muslim Brotherhood of Syria, and there are reports of close collaboration with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

  Jaysh al-Nasr. Salafism. It had 5,000 members, mainly Arabs, as of 2015. Its HQ is in Qalaatal-Madiq, Hama province and its zone of responsibility includes Idlib, Latakia, Hama, and Aleppo provinces. It was commanded by Muhammad Mansour as of early 2018. With the formation of National Liberation Front, Mansour became its deputy commander and chief of staff. The group collaborates closely with Tahrir al-Sham, Jaysh al-Izza and Ahrar ash-Sham.

  Jaysh al-Nukhba. It collaborates with groups pursuing Syrian nationalism and Salafism. Its strength was 3,000, mostly Arabs, as of early 2017, according to its own statements. Its Aleppo province HQ is located in Jarablus, its Idlib province HQ in Kafr Nabl, and its zone of responsibility covers Idlib, Latakia, Hama, and Aleppo provinces. This formation is part of the Hawar Kilis Operations Room, the biggest pro-Turkey FSA group. It was commanded by Mohammed Ahmedal-Sayed in early 2017 and collaborates with Jaysh al-Nasr, Ahrar ash-Sham and the Free Idlib Army.

  Jabhat al-Aisalat wal-Tanmia. Salafism. It had 5,000 members, mostly Arabs, in late 2015. Its zone of responsibility is Aleppo province and it is part of the Hawar Kilis Operations Room. The group collaborates with Jaysh al-Islam and Ahrar ash-Sham.

  23rd Division. Islamic democracy. It numbered 1,400, mostly Arabs, in late 2014. Its HQ is in Qah, Idlib province and its zone of responsibility covers the northern Idlib and Aleppo provinces. Commanded by Abu Mustafa in early 2018, it collaborates with Ahrar ash-Sham, the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement and Festaqem Kema Umrit.

  1st Coastal Division. Pan-Turkism. 2800 strong in 2015, it is made up of mostly Syrian Turkmen and Arabs. Its zone of responsibility covers Idlib and Latakia and as of 2014 its commander was Muhammad Haj Ali. It collaborates closely with Tahrir al-Sham, Ahrar ash-Sham and the Turkistan Islamic Party.

  2nd Coastal Division. Pan-Turkism. It numbered around 500, mostly Syrian Turkmen, in 2015. Its zone of responsibility includes Aleppo and Latakia and its commander is Tarik Solak. It collaborates closely with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (in the province of Latakia) and Ahrar ash-Sham.

  Free Idlib Army. Syrian nationalism. According to its own account it numbered around 6000, mostly Arabs, in 2016. It has headquarters in the towns of Maaratal-Numaan and Kafr Nabal in the province of Idlib. Its zone of responsibility covers the provinces of Idlib, Latakia and Aleppo. It includes the 13th Division, the Northern Division and the Mountain Hawks Brigade. Currently they are commanded by Suhaib Leoush. They collaborate closely with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Ahrar ash-Sham and Faylaq ash-Sham.

  2nd Army. Syrian nationalism and Islamic democracy. In June 2017 it counted around 1500 members, mostly Arabs. Its zone of responsibility covers Idlib, Latakia and Hama. It includes Division 46, Division 312, and Division 314 and its commander in June 2017 was Mohammed Khaled Khleif. There are reports that they have fought with ISIS in the North of Syria.

  Liwa Shuhda al-Islam. Moderate Islam. It had around 700 members, mostly Arabs, in June 2017. Its HQ is in Idlib, Hama and Rif Dimashq. Its commander, Saeed Naqrash, was captured by unknown individuals in April 2018. The group blames Tahrir al-Sham for the kidnapping, which they deny. There are reports of close collaboration with the Islamic Union of the Soldiers of the Levant.

  TURKISH DIPLOMATIC APPROACH TOWARD NORTHERN SYRIA

  Northern Syria is a big knot of contradictions, with every party (Syria, Turkey, Iran, Russia, and of course the US) seeking to implement their own plans.

  The Assad government is still viewed as illegitimate by Ankara, though Erdogan prefers not to mention it officially if this is possible. Turkish authorities have also repeatedly claimed that Ankara is fulfilling its obligations under the de-escalation zones agreement. However, no practical steps have been made by Ankara to separate Turkish-backed “moderate” factions from the terrorist groups in Idlib or to combat the terrorists there.

  Turkey considered ISIS and Kurdish armed groups to be terrorists. After ISIS suffered defeat, Kurdish armed groups remained the only point in that category. Some Kurdish leaders hoped that Erdogan may lose the presidential election and thus the Turkish stance on the Kurdish issue in northern Syria will soften. However, this has never happened.

  

  Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, (r), Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, (c), and Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani pose for the media members in Sochi, Russia, November 22. 2017. (Kayhan Ozer/Pool via AP)

  On June 4, 2018, Ankara and Washington approved the “road map” for the town of Manbij in northern Aleppo, which is currently controlled by the Kurdish-dominated SDF. According to Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, the first phase of the “road map” would see a withdrawal of Kurdish units from the town, which would come under joint patrols of Turkish and US troops. Turkish top officials also claimed that the agreement implied creating a town administration out of local inhabitants after the Kurdish armed groups’ departure. Turkey also insisted that all Kurdish armed groups within the SDF have to be disarmed or even disbanded in the framework of the roadmap.

  Nonetheless, the turn of events appeared to be at odds with Ankara’s desires. The YPG once again claimed that it had withdrawn its members from Manbij. US and Turkish forces started patrols north of the town, on the contact line between the SDF/YPG and Turkish-held areas. No Turkish troops entered Manbij. The political and military control over the town remained in the hands of the YPG-affiliated bodies. Furthermore, the US continued providing Kurdish fighters with various military supplies, including weapons and armoured vehicles, and training. No further joint US-Turkish steps to settle the Manbij issue in favor of the Erdogan government were made.

  Moreover, the problem is also that for Erdogan, Afrin, Al-Bab, and Manbij are not enough. He has repeatedly vowed to completely clear Kurish armed groups from the area from Manbij to Sinjar, which means operations in Qamishli, Kobani and Haskah, the main YPG strongholds in Syria. Thus, in order to achieve own goals the Erdogan government is balancing between the US-led bloc and the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance.

  From Russia’s point of view, the strategic priority is Syria’s territorial integrity and the prevention of radical islamists from coming to power. Russia is open to dialogue with a moderate part of the Syrian opposition and is ready to participate in the talks. The leadership likely understands that Turkey is a temporary ally of Russia in Syria, where the two countries together with Iran are guaranteeing the ceasefire in de-escalation zones.

  Thus, some Russian experts claim that Turkey is allied with the US against Russia, which does have some basis. Turkey is in NATO, Ankara has supported and is still supporting the opposition, especially radical armed groups in Idlib, which are not willing to negotiate with Assad. The conflict of objectives between Turkey and the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance has become obvious when the SAA started preparing for a possible military operation in Idlib.

  However, Turkey’s, Syria’s, and therefore also Russia’s interests coincide on the question of Syrian Kurdistan. After Russian forces were dispatched to Syria and particularly after the liberation of Aleppo in 2017, Moscow tried to act as an intermediary between the Kurds and Damascus, trying to convince the latter to create Kurdish autonomy. But the Kurdish leaders rejected talks with Damascus and instead placed their hopes in an alliance with the US. It does not matter whether they picked that option because they felt Washington was the best hope to gain quick independence for Rojava or because of a cash stimulus from US emissaries. Most likely both factors played a role. The prospect of a pro-US Kurdish “independent” state formation was extremely worrisome to Ankara, Damascus, and Tehran, prompting them to close ranks.

  Thus, the Kurds have lost their chance to get a wide autonomy within Syria and become a bargaining chip in the negotiations between major players involved in the conflict.

  The Astana process format also deserves a few words. In the framework of this formant, Russia, Turkey, and Iran have affirmed their determination to fight terrorism and also those organizations which are considered terrorist by the UNSC, oppose separatism aimed at undermining territorial integrity and the sovereignty of Syria and the security of neighboring countries, continue joint efforts to promote political reconciliation among the Syrians themselves in order to facilitate the earliest possible launch of the Constitutional Committee in Geneva. But the actual situation is radically different. Ankara de-facto controls part of Syria, with the fight against Kurdish armed groups and the expansion of own influence in the war-torn country being the motives. Turkey also lacks a UNSC mandate or a permission from Damascus to deploy forces in the country. These are undoubtedly violations of Ankara’s commitments to the Astana agreements and of Syria’s sovereignty. The participation of the Syrian opposition in the negotiations is also a problem. Many factions just sabotage the talks.  Moreover, there are no significant results in the realm of political decisions on the country’s future, even though they sides continue to affirm their unity in this effort. One could draw the conclusion that the Astana format is not effective and is only a platform for meetings among heads of states, since each country and Turkey in particular is pursuing its own interests.

  If one examines Russian participation in the conflict, there is still no evidence that Russia plans to impose a solution for a future Syria by force. Troops and equipment are being withdrawn from Hmeimim, which indicates a gradual drawdown of the military operation and a shift towards diplomatic means. However, while it’s possible to observe the successful implementation of this approach in some separate regions of the country, it has faced significant difficulties on the regional level.

  CONCLUSION

  In the last decade, Turkey’s foreign policy underwent significant changes which transformed its theoretical and practical foundations. The term “neo-Ottomanism” was launched in the context of Turkey’s expanding international activities in the scientific and political realm. While the international community interprets it in a number of ways, it does contain a clear ideological component. Moreover, neo-Ottomanism is the most appropriate term to describe Turkey’s foreign policy ideology and actions. Ankara seeks to become a world power, and that goal drives its activities, particularly concerning the Arab Spring and the war in Syria.

  There are many potential clashes of interests between Turkey and Syria, including the Kurdish issue, mutual territorial claims, and ideological and political incompatibility. Since the very start of the protests in Syria, Turkey has rendered and continues to render help to the armed groups and political opposition. Moreover, the bilateral relations are made more complicated by the Euphrates river (nearly half the water is taken by Turkey which deprives countries downstream of water), the looting of industrial enterprises of the manufacturing center of Syria – Aleppo (equipment from nearly 1,000 factories were transported to Turkey). Ankara still believes Assad ought to leave his post, although in the last year its rhetoric concerning Assad’s legitimacy has softened. This was due to the growth of Russian influence on the theater of operations, military defeat suffered by several groups backed by Turkey, and also by the political and economic pressure exerted by Moscow after the Su-24 incident. This shaped Turkish policy toward Syria.

  In the best outcome scenario for Syria, Iran, and Russia, Turkey would not plan to annex the Syrian territory it controls in the north of the country in order to avoid a negative reaction from these three states. These territories may be used as bargaining chips in order to gain preferential treatment for work in post-war Syria, thus expanding and strengthening its sphere of influence in that country and strengthening Turkey as a regional power. It’s possible that the Syrian border territories will see something akin to a trans-border protectorate, without redrawing national boundaries. Turkey has already transformed the agglomeration of its proxies into something like a unified opposition, with whom Ankara imagines Assad will discuss the future of Syria, thus giving it a place in the war-destroyed country and thus ensuring Turkey’s interests are safeguarded.

  In the contemporary military and diplomatic reality surrounding the Syrian crisis, Ankara is pursuing the following tactical goals:

  • To eliminate or at least disarm and limit influence of US-backed Kurdish armed groups in northern Syria;

  • To strengthen a united pro-Turkish opposition Idlib and to eliminate any resistance to it, including in some scenarios the elimination of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies;

  • To facilitate return of refugees from Turkey to Syrian areas under its own control;

  If these goals are achieved, Ankara will significantly increase its influence on the diplomatic settlement of the crisis and on the future of the post-war Syria. The returned refugees and supporters of militant groups in the Turkish-controlled part of Syria will become an electoral base of pro-Turkish political figures and parties in case of the implementation of the peaceful scenario. If no wide-scale diplomatic deal on the conflict is reached, one must consider the possibility of a pro-Turkish quasi-state in northern Syria, confirming the thesis that Erdogan is seeking to build a neo-Ottoman empire.

  

• US Defense Agency Wants Battlespace To Combat Russia And China Hypersonic Weapons

  The US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) submitted a request for highly maneuvrable Mach 5 missile interceptors to combat the hypersonic threat from Russia and China. The solicitation was submitted to the Department of Defense (DOD) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) Program, a congressionally mandated program coordinated by the Small Business Administration (SBA) to obtain innovative defense solutions from private industry to address defense technology gaps.

  

  “The technology within this topic is restricted under the International Traffic in Arms Regulation (ITAR), which controls the export and import of defense-related material and services. Offerors must disclose any proposed use of foreign nationals, their country of origin, and what tasks each would accomplish in the statement of work in accordance with section 5.4.c.(8) of the Announcement,” said the MDA.

  According to the description of the solicitation, the MDA is searching for hypersonic missiles that have extraordinary aerodynamic controls to intercept Russian or Chinese hypersonic weapons.

  “Concepts should focus on maximizing maneuverability and minimizing kinetic energy losses to the greatest extent possible while allowing controlled flight in a hypersonic environment.

  Studies may include various geometries, materials, positioning for control surfaces, or other innovative concepts. Proposers may assume vehicles are simple conical shapes or shapes with greater lift-drag ratios. Proposers may also assume a range of velocities above Mach 5 and a range of altitudes up to 50 kilometers. Solutions could have applicability to small interceptors, such as projectiles shorter than one meter or larger interceptors, such as missiles over 5 meters long,” said the MDA.

  MDA recently asked for $120.4 million in FY19 for hypersonic defense research. Current missile interceptors are not designed to defend against hypersonic missiles, and that MDA wants to transform interceptors into anti-hypersonic weapons.

  The request provides a complete breakdown of how the program will rollout once the MDA selects the proper technology.

  • PHASE I: Perform analysis on promising aerodynamic control concepts to include modeling and/or limited wind tunnel assessment. Estimate the maneuverability and kinetic energy loss for maneuvers at a range of Mach numbers and altitudes. Down select to one or two preferred design concepts.
  • PHASE II: Work with a missile defense system integrator to mature the selected geometry and design. Obtain higher fidelity estimates of performance. Test in a representative environment such as a wind tunnel.
  • PHASE III DUAL-USE APPLICATIONS: Work with a system integrator to refine requirements and integrate into a full guidance navigation and control system. Demonstrate the technology in a representative environment. Transition the technology into a missile defense application.

  Earlier this month, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) debuted its Glide Breakers program at D60 Symposium, a three-day conference honoring the organization’s 60th anniversary.

  

  The program will research “component technologies” needed for one or more defense systems but will focus heavily on a kinetic-force weapon to intercept high-speed enemy missiles.

  

  With Russia and China jumping ahead of the US with superior hypersonic weapons, it seems that multiple agencies within the Pentagon are seeking to develop various forms of hypersonic interceptors — on short notice.

  

  While many believe American Hegemony is here to stay, there is a strong possibility that it could be somewhat displaced in the coming years as China and Russia now lead the hypersonic race. MDA’s request for Mach 5 hypersonic missile interceptors and DARPA’s Glide Breaker program, should be viewed as a defensive maneuver by Washington, as US Admiral Harry Harris, former head of the US Pacific Command and now the ambassador to South Korea, said, “China’s hypersonic weapons development outpaces ours… we’re falling behind.”

  

• Britain Joins US In Unwise Confrontation In The South China Sea

  Authored by Brian Cloughley via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  The US research agency Stratfor has forecast that “the United States will solidify its naval presence in the South China Sea and continue building up defence and economic ties along China’s periphery from Taiwan to Southeast Asia,” and given the all-embracing belligerence that seems to envelope Washington, its analysts are probably right. There are few countries or international accords that are not targeted by the malevolence of a president who declared at his inauguration that “it’s going to be only America first, America first” and whose disciples applaud his erratic lurches from truculent insults to maudlin self-pity.

  

  In November 2017 Trump visited Vietnam and “called for all South China Sea claimants to clarify and comport their maritime claims in accordance with the international law of the sea as reflected in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea [UNCLOS] and to implement their international legal obligations in good faith in managing or resolving these disputes.”

  The main problem about this self-satisfied drivel is that, as Voice of America reported in 2016, “the US has not accepted UNCLOS because of opposition from Republicans in the Senate, where treaties must be approved by a two-thirds’ vote.” And in 2018 the Congress is still controlled by Republicans and they still haven’t agreed to ratify the Convention. Why should they? It goes against everything that Washington stands for in the way of America First, which sentiment excludes anything at all that might commit the US to international law.

  So the Pentagon continues to send nuclear-capable bombers and missile-equipped warships and electronic warfare aircraft around and over the South China Sea, to make it clear to China that the most important thing to Washington in the region is its military domination of China’s coast. The most recent confrontational activity was three months ago when the US Navy’s Antietam, a guided-missile cruiser, and the Higgins guided-missile destroyer were sent to try to provoke Chinese reaction by operating within 12 nautical miles of the Paracel Islands. They didn’t just pass through the Paracels : they conducted tactical manoeuvres among the islets, but this didn’t prevent a spokesman for the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet telling Time magazine, presumably without a smirk on his face, that the operations “are not about one country, nor are they about making political statements.”

  Britain, which is roughly the same distance from the South China Sea as America (10,000 km as against 12,000 km) decided to join Washington in making political statements by sending HMS Albion, an Amphibious Assault Ship of Britain’s Royal Navy to mimic US antics in the region.

  Albion is impressive-looking but is not a combat vessel, because its mission is simply to deliver troops and equipment to a previously secured landing area. But off it went to the South China Sea to sail along and conduct a so-called ‘freedom of navigation exercise’ on August 31 in the waters round the Paracel Islands, which the Brits declared was “in full compliance with international law.”

  On June 27, a month after the last US Navy venture against China and two months before the UK’s Royal Navy was ordered by its government to imitate the US ships’ fandangos, China’s ambassador to Britain noted that there was no problem with freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and that “The reality is that more than 100,000 merchant ships pass through these waters every year and none has ever run into any difficulty with freedom of navigation. Despite some disputes between China and some of its neighbours, maintaining stability in the South China Sea has been a matter of consensus for all the countries in this region. The overall situation has been stable, thanks to the joint efforts of all the regional partners.”

  There was absolutely no need for a British warship to sail close to any of the islands where China has for decades had a large presence. On its way to Vietnam from Japan, the Albion had no reason whatever to pass close to any of the Paracels. It could have sailed more directly from Tokyo to Ho Chi Minh City with no problem at all — and it would have used less fuel. But the UK government authorised the Navy’s spokesman to declare that “HMS Albion exercised her rights for freedom of navigation in full compliance with international law and norms.”

  The object of the operation was to try to provoke China to take action against yet another instance of foreign military coat-trailing in a region in which Britain has no territorial claims and no local alliances. It was following Washington’s policy of trying to irritate China, and in this it succeeded, although it was most unwise to do so.

  When Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May was in Beijing in January 2018, one of her more important observations was that her visit would “intensify the golden era in UK-China relations.” And a Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman said Beijing saw Mrs May’s trip as “an opportunity to achieve new development of the China-UK global comprehensive strategic partnership.” It seemed at the time that bilateral relations were at least practical, and could even progress to the commercially cordial.

  There were, after all, trade deals agreed worth some 9 billion pounds, and PM May declared that as “the UK is preparing to leave the European Union we’re seizing the opportunity to become an ever-more outward-looking Global Britain, deepening our trade relations with nations around the world — including China.”

  But Mrs May was sadly mistaken if she imagined for one moment that a “golden era” of Sino-UK relations would be welcomed by China after her silly and totally needless aggravation in the South China Sea. On September 7 the Chinese reaction to Britain’s “freedom of navigation” frolic was “Britain’s actions were wrong. They clearly violated the consensus and spirit put forward by Britain’s leadership that they wished to build a golden era in ties with China. This certainly will unfavourably influence the further development of the China-Britain relationship.”

  The China-UK trade balance is in China’s favour, but Britain needs China much more than China needs Britain — and this will be especially so when the UK exits the European Union, which will engage further and more deeply with China in many ways.

  Just as in its relations with Russia, it would serve Britain better to cease posturing and try moderation with China. It is very easy, and no doubt enjoyable in a juvenile way, to leap up and down and insult other countries, but it is wiser to be restrained and balanced. What happens in the South China Sea is nothing to do with Britain, which has plenty of Brexit problems on its plate without looking for more complications. 

  

• The 10 Cities Are Where Millennials Carry the Most Debt

  According to a new LendingTree study, the typical urban millennial carries $23,064 of debt living in the biggest US cities. Student loans, auto loans, and credit card debt are the most popular forms of consumer debt (excluding mortgages) for Millennials.

  “The millennial generation makes up the younger portion of adults, and as they build their careers, families and communities, they’re doing it encumbered by personal debt,” said Kali McFadden, the LendingTree senior research analyst who administered the study.

  

  LendingTree analyst examined anonymized credit card report data from My LendingTree users who live in US metros. They looked at debt balances (excluding mortgages) for those born between 1981 and 1996, and determined a shocking revelation:

  • Millennials have the biggest non-mortgage median debt obligations
  • The average breakdown of debt obligations by five different debt types: student, auto, credit cards, personal loans and other

  The results provided a stunning snapshot of millennials’ debt balances, along with geographical data.

  Here are some of the key findings from the report:

  • Millennials in San Antonio, Pittsburgh, and Austin, Texas, shoulder the largest debt burdens of the 50 biggest metro areas, with median non-mortgage debts of $27,122, $26,403 and $26,164, respectively.
  • Three California cities — San Jose, Sacramento and Los Angeles — have the lowest median balances on our list at $18,376, $18,691 and $19,299, respectively.
  • Student debt makes up the largest share of millennial debt, accounting for 40% of their total credit and loan balances. The proportion of student debt was highest in Philadelphia, at 49.1% of the average debt burden, and lowest in San Jose at 24.1%. This was also the largest debt category for millennials in 35 of the 50 cities we reviewed.
  • Auto loan debt was the biggest debt burden of the other 15 metros and averaged about 33% of millennials’ average total debt balances. Auto loans accounted for over 43% of the average debt for millennials in Riverside, Calif., and San Antonio, but just over 22% of New York City millennials’ debt.

  The follow map breaks down where Millennials carry the most debt (excluding mortgages) 

  

  The report reveals that Millennials in the South and Rust Belt regions appear to be borrowing the most – 80% of the cities are in these areas. Texas, in particular, is number one on the list. If you are a millennial living in San Antonio, Austin, Houston, and or Dallas — you are most likely broke and heavily indebted.

  Half of the millennials in these cities have outstanding debts totaling $25,000 or more (not including mortgages). And 25 percent of millennials in these cities owe lenders more than $50,000.

  The composition of these debts was similar to the national average, with student debt and auto loans accounting for a majority of millennials’ outstanding credit balances.

  Here is the list of cities where millennials are entirely broke:

  

  Another part of the studied looked at 10 cities where millennials have the lowest debts. The report notes that several of the nation’s most expensive cities, such as San Jose, Los Angeles and New York City, are where millennials owe the least

  “It’s worth noting that low debt burdens aren’t necessarily a good thing when thinking about the economic vibrancy of a community,” McFadden pointed out.

  “Some people have lower debt burdens because they don’t have access to credit, for instance, or haven’t completed college,” she said.

  McFadden added that a lack of debt in some cities is a troubling sign that millennials cannot afford or cannot qualify to expand credit.

  Here is the list of cities where millennials have less debt: 

  

  And now it all makes sense, millennials are coming to age as America’s most stressed generation because of the massive debt loads they have incurred. What happens next is horrifying, as they will be the next generation to deleverage in the upcoming economic downturn.

  

• End-Times Persecution? World's Largest Country Is Destroying 1000s Of Crosses And Bibles

  Authored by Michael Snyder via The American Dream blog,

  Many Christians in the western world don’t even realize that the persecution of the end times has already started.  All over the world, Christians are being attacked, Bibles are being burned and churches are being shut down.  This persecution has been escalating for quite some time, but what prompted me to write this article today was the dramatic change that we have witnessed in China this year.  Up to this point, the Chinese government has largely tolerated the booming house church movement, but now that era of toleration is officially over.  New religious regulations that went into effect in February are being brutally enforced, and this is causing some to point out the frightening parallels between Communist China and Nazi Germany.

  

  According to Fox News, during this new crackdown Chinese government officials have been “destroying crosses, burning bibles, closing churches and forcing Christian believers to sign papers renouncing their faith”…

  The Chinese government is destroying crosses, burning bibles, closing churches and forcing Christian believers to sign papers renouncing their faith as the crackdown on religious congregations in Beijing and several provinces intensifies.

  The suppression of religious freedoms is part of an official campaign to “Sinicize” religion by demanding loyalty to the atheist Communist party and removing any potential challenge to the party’s power in the country.

  Doesn’t that sound quite similar to Nazi Germany and other tyrannical regimes?

  If Christians refuse to sign these papers, they could lose their jobs or be cut off from all government benefits.

  So let us pray for strength for our brothers and sisters in China, because many of them will be confronted with some very hard choices.

  According to the Express, authorities have also “raided Christian homes to remove religious symbols, arrested church members and seized churches”.  In Henan province alone, more than 7,000 crosses have been destroyed, but other than Fox News most of the mainstream media outlets in the United States have been completely silent about this very important story.

  You can see some footage of Bibles being burned in China on Twitter right here.  This is evil on a level that is hard to describe, and it seems to be getting worse with each passing month.

  Earlier this month, one pastor was heartbroken after authorities burned crosses, Bibles and furniture after a raid on his church…

  A Christian Pastor in the Henan city of Nanyang, whose name was not identified out of fear of retaliation by the authorities, reportedly confirmed that crosses, bibles and furniture were burned during a raid on his church on Sept. 5.

  He added that local authorities were in discussions with the church about reforming it, but no agreement had been reached.

  According to Chinese laws, religious believers are allowed to worship only in government-sanctioned congregations. But many millions of Christians belong to underground or house churches that ignore government regulations.

  So exactly what kind of “reform” did the authorities have in mind?

  Basically, China wants churches to look like something out of a George Orwell novel.  The following comes from CBN…

  Chinese Christians report authorities have urged church leaders to remove pictures of Jesus from their sanctuaries and replace them with patriotic posters, or posters of President Xi instead. They’ve suggested hymns be replaced with patriotic songs about the “wonderfulness of the Chinese Communist Party.”

  Nettleton also said Chinese authorities are using advanced artificial intelligence software to monitor church attendees.

  “One pastor in Beijing not long ago was told by the government, ‘pastor we don’t mind if you continue holding your services, we just want to put this camera on your platform looking out at the audience and it’s attached to facial recognition software so that we can tell who comes to church on Sunday and who’s there and what they are doing and how involved they are,’” he said.

  Could you imagine going to a church like that?

  I couldn’t.

  Ladies and gentlemen, this is it.

  This is the persecution of the last days, and it is only going to get worse.

  In addition to everything else, the Chinese government is banning just about all expressions of faith on the Internet…

  In addition to these attacks, the Chinese government is implementing tight restrictions on online content related to religion. Images and descriptions of religious activities will be largely prohibited, with exceptions for organizations that have obtained licenses from the government — and even then, what kinds of religious content they may share is restricted. As the Telegraph reports, “Individuals would be forbidden from posting photos, videos and even text related to religious activities, or sharing links related to preaching.”

  This will happen here in the United States too eventually if we don’t fight it.

  And of course it isn’t just in China that we are seeing a rise in persecution.

  Just a couple weeks ago, Islamic radicals viciously attacked home churches in Egypt…

  Homes of Copts in the Minya region were attacked by hundreds of furious locals leaving two Christians with knife wounds in the head and face, World Watch Monitor reports.

  Four homes were ransacked, looted and partially set on fire by a Muslim mob during the three-hour-long attack, which was reportedly in protest of one of the properties being used as a home church.

  A local source for Christian persecution watchdog World Watch Monitor said the small Coptic community had been warned about the attack on August 31 a few days before it took place.

  

  And earlier this year in Ethiopia, a total of 69 churches were torched by radical Islamists…

  On March 2nd, Muslims went on a rampage in an Islamic area of Ethiopia, beginning with an assault on churches in Asendabo. ICC and others alerted the world and called on the Ethiopian government to intervene. Unfortunately, the local government did not intervene and the attacks continued for a week. When the smoke cleared, the damage was evident. The Muslims had burned down the homes of 30 Christian leaders, they had killed one Christian, wounded several others, and torched 69 churches, a Bible school, and a Christian orphanage. One of the many wounded in these attacks was the grandson of a church elder who put himself in between the Muslim militants and his grandfather when they arrived to kill the elderly man. The Islamists attacked the young man with machetes – seriously wounding his head and hand and leaving him for dead. His family was forced to make a three-hour journey on foot to bring him to a hospital in a nearby city.

  Hatred for Christians and the Christian faith is rapidly rising all over the planet, and this was something that I warned about in my book about Bible prophecy.  We should do all that we can to put pressure on governments to stop persecuting Christians, but if we really are in the end times, ultimately the persecution is just going to continue to escalate.

  The good news is that persecution always brings out the best in the people of God, and I believe that the greatest chapters of the Church are still ahead.

  So let us pray for our persecuted brothers and sisters all over the world, and let us also prepare ourselves for the immense persecution that is on the horizon for all of us.

  

• Fortnite Game Addiction Blamed For 200 Divorces

  Fortnite is not just the most popular video game in the world. It seems it is also a relationship destroyer.

  According to DivorceOnline, a UK-based online divorce service offering affordable legal advice, the video game Fortnite Battle Royale, a free-to-play battle royale game where up to 100 players fight in increasingly-smaller spaces to be the last person standing, has been cited in more than 200 divorce petitions filed through the site since January.

  

  Spouses are not the only ones complaining about the viral video game. It has caused problems for schools and even professional sports teams. In July, the free-to-access game passed the billion-dollar threshold through in-app sales alone, and NBA player Andre Drummond released a statement in April that he was hooked. So much so, that he said, “It took my life over.”

  If that does not sound crazy, Ohio’s Ashland University announced earlier this year that it would be the first college in the US to offer scholarships specifically for the video game.

  A spokesperson for the company said, “addiction to drugs, alcohol and gambling have often been cited as reasons for relationship breakdowns, but the dawn of the digital revolution has introduced new addictions.”

  “These now include online pornography, online gaming and social media, so it is no surprise to us that more and more people are having relationship problems because of our digital addictions. These numbers equate to roughly 5% of the 4,665 petitions we have handled since the beginning of the year and as one of the largest filers of divorce petitions in the UK, is a pretty good indicator.”

  The World Health Organization (WHO) recently released a report warning that compulsively playing video games now qualifies as a new mental health condition. In June, the agency said that classifying “gaming disorder” as a separate condition will “serve a public health purpose for countries to be better prepared to identify this issue.”

  Earlier this summer, a nine-year-old girl in the UK was sent to rehabilitation after becoming addicted to Fortnite to the extent that she was sitting on a urine-soaked chair as she would not refuse to leave her monitor.

  

  Dr. Shekhar Saxena, director of WHO’s department for mental health, estimated the condition affects 23% of gamers. The mental health disorder characterized by behaviors such as losing control of the time, prioritizing gaming above other activities which negatively impacts on areas in a player’s life such as education, employment, and of course, relationships.

  Meanwhile, the Fortnite addiction is real: 

  Nyheim Hines did an AMA on Reddit today, and basically just talked about Fortnite the whole time. He is one of us. pic.twitter.com/ENlfmUciuI

  — Barstool Pack (@BarstoolPack) March 21, 2018

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  When you put your Fortnite addiction over a potential fire

  When you put your Fortnite addiction over a potential fire pic.twitter.com/MsgbPQrTXb

  — Barstool Rowan (3-0) (@Barstool_Rowan) March 15, 2018

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  Colts pulled off a Fortnite celebration 

  Colts pulled off a Fornite celebration.

  First the revive on @Ebron85 and then the Hype Dance. pic.twitter.com/QPCIHyn6R3

  — Jordan Heck (@JordanHeckFF) September 9, 2018

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  ABC Australia: Millions are playing it, but is Fortnite addiction really a thing?

  For many, playing video games seems like a harmless pastime even as it consumes them alive and becomes an addiction with very real offline consequences.

  

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