Aug 19

Today’s News 19th August 2024

  • Judge Napolitano: When Presidents Kill
    Judge Napolitano: When Presidents Kill

    Authored by Andrew P. Napolitano

    Sometime before he withdrew from the presidential race, President Joe Biden secretly reaffirmed his own self-willed and self-created authority to kill persons in other countries, so long as the CIA and its military counterparts have “near certainty” that the target of the homicide is a member of a terrorist organization. That standard was concocted by the George W. Bush administration in 2002.

    There is no “near certainty” standard in the law, as the phrase is oxymoronic and defies a rational definition – like “nearly pregnant.” Just as one is either pregnant or not, one is either certain or not. There is no “near” there.

    The White House lit in red, white and blue in July, via Flickr

    Yet, the creation of this standard underscores the lamentable absence of the rule of law in government today. The Biden administration and its three immediate predecessors have all deployed drones to kill persons who were not engaged in acts of violence at the time of their killing, irrespective of the near certainty of their membership in any organizations.

    “Terrorist” cannot be a standard for extrajudicial murder because it is subjective. To King George III, George Washington and Thomas Jefferson were terrorists. To the poor folks in Libya and Syria, to the popularly elected governments toppled by CIA-inspired violence in Iran in 1953 and in Ukraine in 2014, to the innocents tortured by the CIA at black sites around the world, the CIA is a terrorist organization.

    The presidential use of drones to kill persons overseas began in 2002 with Bush-ordered targeted killings. It continued under President Barack Obama – who even killed Americans overseas. The rules for killing were made up by each president. They were relaxed under President Donald Trump, who gave CIA senior personnel and military commanders the authority to kill without his express approval for each killing. Trump’s folks infamously murdered an Iranian general and his companions on their way to lunch with Iraqi generals to negotiate peace between the two countries.

    The Biden administration quietly took back the Trump grants of authority so that today only the president can authorize targeted killing. Yet, there is no moral, constitutional or legal authority for these killings. But presidents of both political parties do it anyway.

    The laws of war – a phrase itself that is oxymoronic – which are generally codified in the Geneva Conventions and the United Nations Charter, all of which were spearheaded, written and ratified by the United States, mandate essentially that lawful wars can only be defensive and must be proportional to the threat posed or the harm already caused. Stated differently, treaties to which the U.S. is a signatory restrain the president from killing persons in other countries with which the U.S. is not lawfully at war.

    Under the Constitution, treaties sit alongside the Constitution itself as the supreme law of the land. The last four occupants of the White House have ignored this when it comes to secret killings. Each has claimed publicly or secretly that the Authorization for Use of Military Force of 2001, or its cousin, the AUMF of 2002, somehow provide congressional authorizations for presidents to kill whomever they please – and somehow Congress can lawfully authorize these killings.

    Yet the AUMF of 2001 purported to authorize Bush to hunt down and kill the folks whom he failed to see coming on 9/11 (those would be his friends, the Saudis), and whom he reasonably found caused 9/11. The AUMF of 2002 authorized Bush to invade Iraq in pursuit of the weapons of mass destruction that he was told by experts inside and outside the CIA Saddam Hussein did not possess. Both AUMFs no longer have a valid purpose today, yet they remain the law.

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    The Constitution authorizes Congress to declare war against foreign countries, not random killings of persons. Neither of the AUMFs was or is a valid declaration of war, which the Constitution requires as a predicate for all extrajudicial presidential killings. A declaration of war defines the target and sets the end. It is not open-ended as the last four presidents have claimed with respect to these two Bush-era statutes.

    If the presidents are right, and the AUMFs authorize them to kill whomever they wish – including Americans – then they are not presidents answerable to the law and the Constitution, but kings who can kill on a whim without transparency or legal consequence.

    The whole purpose of confining the war-making power to Congress and the war-waging power to the president was to keep those powers separate. History is littered with examples of tyrants using the powers of the state to kill for no moral purpose. American presidents have given themselves the power to kill. It is the functional equivalent to a loaded gun in a drawer of the president’s desk.

    Abraham Lincoln was the first head of state in world history to target civilians militarily and the first to engage in the indiscriminate slaughter of civilians of his own country. Franklin D. Roosevelt slaughtered thousands of innocent helpless German civilians at the end of World War II by carpet-bombing German cities, rather than targeting the German military. Harry Truman slaughtered many thousands of Japanese civilians at Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    All these murders were met with popular approval, as the targets had been demonized by the machinery of government – just like the “terrorists” Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden have killed.

    But demonization of human targets and popular approval of their murders cannot turn an immoral act into a moral one. An act is moral when it is consistent with the Natural Law. According to the Declaration of Independence, under the Natural Law, all persons are “endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, and among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.” The right to live is the foremost natural right and the great divine gift to all persons – not just Americans.

    No person may morally be targeted for death by government for any reason unless it is presently necessary to stop that person from actively killing an innocent. In the cases cited above, the presidential killings were done to terrify political opponents, as the civilian targets were helpless. And the killers were lauded as heroes.

    Today, American troops are on the ground in Ukraine showing Ukrainian forces how to use American weapons to kill Russian troops and in Israel showing the IDF how to kill civilians in Gaza. This was done by secret presidential orders that have never been publicly acknowledged. Russian troops and Gazan civilians pose no threat whatsoever to life, liberty or property in America.

    Why do American presidents kill? Because they can get away with it.

    * * *

    Andrew P. Napolitano, a former judge of the Superior Court of New Jersey, is the senior judicial analyst at Fox News Channel. Judge Napolitano has written seven books on the US Constitution. The most recent is Suicide Pact: The Radical Expansion of Presidential Powers and the Lethal Threat to American Liberty. To learn more about Judge Andrew Napolitano, visit https://JudgeNap.com.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 23:20

  • Youth Unemployment High In South Asia
    Youth Unemployment High In South Asia

    Youth unemployment is being cited as one of the core drivers of the unrest in Bangladesh, which led to weeks of protests and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stepping down from office.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, based on ILO data, labor force unemployment for people aged 15-24 years in Bangladesh stood at 15.7 percent in 2023, above the world average for youth unemployment of 13.8 percent and the low and middle income average of 14.1 percent.

    Infographic: Youth Unemployment High in South Asia | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Youth unemployment is a regional issue, with India having hit a similar level in 2023, while Nepal and Sri Lanka’s rates last year were worse, both surpassing the 20-percent mark.

    Of this selection of countries, Pakistan fared better in 2023 at around 9.7 percent.

    According to a report by the Japan Times, the latest figures indicate that in 2024, roughly 40 percent of Bangladeshi youth are not in education, employment or training, including those no longer looking for work or registered unemployed.

    The authors write that stagnant job growth in the private sector as well as a cooling economy has made public sector jobs more attractive. Protests started weeks ago over a quota for such civil service jobs which reserved 30 percent of government roles to relatives of veterans of the 1971 war of independence from Pakistan.

    While all of the countries’ unemployment rates have fallen from a pandemic-induced peak, they have in all five cases risen in the past decade.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 22:45

  • Is Recalibrating Advanced Placement Exams Defining Deviancy Down?
    Is Recalibrating Advanced Placement Exams Defining Deviancy Down?

    Authored by Bruno V. Manno via RealClearEducation,

    There is nothing abnormal about deviance. This is a lesson I learned growing up during the 1950s and early 1960s in an Italian American neighborhood called Collinwood on the east side of Cleveland, Ohio. While the neighborhood had plenty of conformity, there was also sufficient forbearance for enough deviance to make life interesting and educational.

    Years later in the early to mid-1970s, I found myself a Ph.D. student in a seminar on the works of the French sociologist Emile Durkheim. I was pleasantly surprised that the lesson I learned growing up was one of Durkheim’s important sociological insights into our common life.

    Durkheim showed that deviance performs at least four important functions in society. It affirms our cultural values and norms; clarifies our moral boundaries; brings us together; and encourages social change by challenging our views. Moreover, our neighborhood was a good example of what’s called the Durkheim Constant: there is a limit to the amount of deviant behavior that a community will tolerate since deviant behavior causes conflict.  

    Many years later in 1993, I read a now-famous essay by Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York titled Defining Deviancy Down who based his article on Durkheim’s insight into deviance. Moynihan wrote mostly about crime in America: “We have been redefining deviancy so as to exempt much conduct previously stigmatized, and also quietly raising the ‘normal’ level in categories where behavior is now abnormal by any earlier standard.”

    Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Chester E. Finn, Jr., suggests that today’s controversy about the recalibration of the College Board’s Advanced Placement exam scores is an educational example of Moynihan’s essay about our human predisposition to define deviancy down.

    The Advanced Placement Controversy

    The College Board Advanced Placement program is often described as the gold standard for high school academic excellence. High school students take college-level courses and exams in 39 subjects from Biology to Music Theory. Tests are typically composed of multiple-choice and essay questions and scored on a scale of 1–5. Depending on the college, students who earn at least a 3 can earn college credit, “place out” of certain college course requirements, or have AP scores transfer directly to credit hours.

    In 2022, the College Board revised the expert panel scoring process for AP exams because student success rates in some AP subjects were well under the 60% to 80% success rate of other subjects. That lower success rate produced a significant disconnect in these subject areas between AP scores and college grades. The College Board claimed that this revised scoring process would get all AP exams to that 60% to 80% success rate and better align all AP exam scores to equivalent college grades.   

    While the College Board did inform the AP community at its conferences about this change, there was no formal public announcement made about the undertaking. The Board has now gone public and released a public update on the scoring process. They describe two reasons for taking this action, which they dubbed evidence-based standard setting.

    First, new digital data collection technologies make it possible to collect and analyze large amounts of data. Second, these technologies allow them to create a new digital library of courses—the AP Classroom—linking each AP course’s units, topics, learning objectives, and skills to exam questions that produce granular student performance data that allow for more accurate exam scoring. Here is a description of what they did:  

    …from 2022-2024, researchers applied evidence-based standard setting (EBSS) processes to determine appropriate performance standards for students in a range of AP courses. This methodology collects input from hundreds of experts and then assembles fine-grained student performance data for analysis by subject-matter experts.

    This process produced a significant increase in average student scores in several AP exams, primarily in humanities subjects. For example, the EBSS process increased the success rate for AP English Literature from 43.9% in 2021 to 77.9% in 2022. The individual student score levels in English Literature increased, going from 12% to 27% earning a 4, and from fewer than 5% to 16% earning a 5. The overall effect on 9 AP exams over the last three years is that a 3 or better score was achieved by approximately a half million more students.

    The Reaction

    Liam Knox, writing in Inside Higher Ed, documents reports that many AP stakeholders support the new approach. On the other hand, not everyone is pleased. These views are summarized in articles with headlines like “Grade Inflation Sends AP Test Scores Soaring” and “Are AP Exams Getting Easier?”

    John Moscatello is a leading questioner of this recalibration process. He is the founder of Macro Learning company and works with school districts creating AP programs. He writes that the AP program “…is undergoing a radical transformation” and that the recalibration process has created “runaway [grade] inflation.”

    He and other critics point out that while there may be sound academic research to support this change in how exams are scored, the effort has lacked public transparency leaving many AP teachers and supporters confused.

    But there are other not-so-sound issues to consider beyond the lack of public transparency. For example, the number of students taking the AP has grown by leaps and bounds, creating a large revenue source for the College Board. Dana Goldstein writing in the New York Times reports that the AP program generated almost $500 million in 2022 revenue for the College Board, calculating that around 20% of that comes from federal, state, and local public dollars. Additionally, some states offer bonuses and salary increases to teachers when their students get a 3 or higher on an AP exam. “Higher scores are good for business” on multiple levels, Moscatello writes.

    A Way Forward

    “We are getting used to a lot of behavior that is not good for us,” writes Moynihan in the essay I reference at the beginning of this piece. He then goes on to reflect that societies and organizations under stress seek ways of killing their pain.

    Maybe we have reached Durkheim’s constant, the proverbial limit to the amount of deviant behavior that a community will tolerate. Or there may be legitimate reasons for the College Board’s new AP scoring approach.

    But it seems common sense that what we need is a lot more transparency on the part of the College Board. That might go a long way to assuring AP program supporters that this new approach is not just a way of defining deviancy down to kill the pain brought on by various forces putting the organization under stress.

    Time will tell.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 22:10

  • American Airlines Stuns By Halting All Israel Flights Until April 2025
    American Airlines Stuns By Halting All Israel Flights Until April 2025

    Within the last month, nearly all major Western and international airlines have announced suspensions and cancelations of their service to both Tel Aviv and Beirut. This also as foreign nationals have scrambled to get out of both countries, given ongoing fears of the outbreak of bigger regional war involving Iran and Hezbollah attacking Israel.

    While American Airlines was among the many carriers announcing temporary pauses in service, it has just issued a surprising lengthy extension to this suspension in flights. On Friday, the Fort Worth-based company announced it doesn’t plan to resume flights to Tel Aviv until April 2025.

    This is a longer cancelation than any other airline, including in all of Europe, so far as a result of the Gaza war and related fears of regional escalation and spillover.

    “American Airlines has suspended operations to and from Tel Aviv through March 29, 2025,” a spokesperson said in a fresh statement to Newsmax.

    “To provide additional flexibility, we will extend our travel alert allowing customers whose travel plans are impacted by this adjustment to rebook without a fee or cancel and receive a refund.”

    “We will continue to work closely with our partner airlines to assist customers traveling between Israel and European cities with service to the U.S.,” the statement continued.

    The latter part of the statement suggests that once AA-partner British Airways (BA) resumes service to Tel Aviv, tickets can be booked for the Europe part of a flight utilizing BA partner service.

    Newsmax wrote of the outlet Israel Hayom:

    The outlet said that it contacted the American Airlines reservation center and tried to book a flight in December. However, it reported that a representative was “surprised” to discover there were no American Airlines flights in its system and that it was not possible to book flights this winter.

    So it seems that despite recent US declarations that a Gaza ceasefire is at the “eleventh hour” and near the “goal line” – major carriers like American Airlines remain deeply skeptical and foresee extended safety issues in terms of airspace over the region.

    Iran has yet to retaliate for the July 31st Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran; however, Israel is still on the alert, and believes such a reprisal attack could come in the form of a ballistic missile and drone launches at any moment. This is also what has put international commercial aviation on alert.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 21:35

  • RFK Jr. Refutes Report That He Approached Harris For Cabinet Position
    RFK Jr. Refutes Report That He Approached Harris For Cabinet Position

    Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. refuted a Washington Post report from earlier this week that said he would drop out of the race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris in exchange for a cabinet position if she wins in November.

    During an Aug. 15 Latino Town Hall on TikTok, he told the moderators that the story is “fake news.”

    Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at the Nixon library in Yorba Linda, Calif., on June 12, 2024. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    “I didn’t ask for a cabinet position,” Kennedy said.

    “I want to meet with all candidates about dampening down the rhetoric and unifying our country.”

    Kennedy said candidates, including former President Donald Trump and Libertarian presidential nominee Chase Oliver, have met with him.

    “Kamala Harris said she doesn’t want to [meet],” he said.

    Kennedy has repeatedly said at campaign stops and in interviews with media outlets and on podcasts that he would always welcome conversations with opposing candidates, media outlets, and podcasters who do not share his views.

    He told The Epoch Times that many Democrats and Republicans acknowledge the division in America but then get mad “if you meet with Trump or Kamala Harris.” He said he is “willing to take the heat by working to build a bridge between both sides.”

    Kennedy, who is attempting to get on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, met with Trump last month in Milwaukee during the Republican National Convention. The Washington Post reported that Kennedy discussed dropping out of the race to back the former president and join his administration if he returns to the White House.

    Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris waits to speak at a campaign rally at United Auto Workers Local 900 in Wayne, Mich., on Aug. 8, 2024. (Right) Republican Presidential nominee former President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at Herb Brooks National Hockey Center in St Cloud, Minn., on July 27, 2024. (Andrew Harnik, Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

    The purpose of meeting with President Trump was to talk about the chronic disease epidemic and children’s health, Kennedy said. He denied that he would end his presidential bid and support the former president.

    Democrats and Republicans alike have expressed concern that Kennedy could take away votes from their respective presidential candidates.

    Earlier this year, the DNC hired Lis Smith, a veteran Democrat strategist who managed Pete Buttigieg’s 2020 presidential campaign, to spearhead an aggressive communication plan to combat Kennedy, independent Cornel West, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

    In recent months, the DNC and Clear Choice, a super PAC aligned with Biden to counter third-party presidential candidates, have objected to Kennedy’s appearance on the ballot, making legal filings in multiple states.

    Last week, a New York State Supreme Court judge ruled that Kennedy falsely listed that he was a New York resident on his nominating petitions. As a result, he was removed from the state’s general election ballot, a decision Kennedy has appealed.

    The DNC has called Kennedy a “stalking horse” to “prop up” Trump. Kennedy, meanwhile, has accused the DNC of trying to win the election in courtrooms and keep voters from having another choice.

    Regarding the report that Kennedy sought a meeting with Harris, Matt Corridoni, a DNC spokesman.said, “No one has any intention of negotiating with a MAGA-funded fringe candidate who has sought out a job with Donald Trump in exchange for an endorsement.”

    2024 presidential contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks with his vice presidential pick Nicole Shanahan in Oakland, Calif., on March 26, 2024. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    David Carlucci, a former Democratic New York state senator who is now a Democratic strategist, told The Epoch Times that Kennedy’s attempt to reach out to Harris “speaks to the issue that many voters already know: Kamala Harris will be elected as our next president.”

    Kennedy’s actions during his campaign have “repeatedly shown that his judgment is not suitable for the presidency or any other leadership role in government,” he said.

    Stefanie Spear, Kennedy’s press secretary, told The Epoch Times in a statement that “Mr. Kennedy is willing to meet with leaders of both parties to discuss the possibility of a unity government” and has done so since he entered the presidential race.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 21:00

  • The Most Dangerous Question Of 2024 – What If Kamala Harris Isn't An Idiot?
    The Most Dangerous Question Of 2024 – What If Kamala Harris Isn’t An Idiot?

    Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

    On the eve of the Democratic National Convention, after a coup against their former standard-bearer Joe Biden, we face a very disturbing question.

    What if Kamala Harris isn’t the idiot the media has made her out to be?

    Harris was clearly chosen for this role. She’s been groomed for it for nearly two decades. She isn’t the best of a list of bad choices. The Democrats drove the good choices from the party and blocked others becoming a part of it.

    There were no Democratic primaries, folks.

    She was placed as Biden’s Vice-President to have the inside track on this gig when they decided Joe finally had to be dragged from the stage.

    The coup was penciled in on the Gantt Chart at Evil Corp. Central for the weekend of July 13th.

    In 2020, Harris voters roundly rejected her for President, getting zero delegates before being roasted by Tulsi Gabbard.

    She dropped out despite being the darling of the media and the donor class. Going into those primaries, she was the establishment’s pick.

    Once she failed they moved to Plan B: rig the game for Biden.

    They said, “We’ll install a mushroom so corrupt we can make him do whatever we want Joe just wants his money and his ice cream.”

    So you force Harris onto Joe. Or the other way around… never mind she’s too old for him.

    Meanwhile Harris waited. She let Joe take the heat. She said little, did less and then is installed, tabula rasa, into a campaign just days after a failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump to steal even that thunder.

    We were never allowed to discuss her culpability, along with the cabinet, as to how Biden could have been running the country for the past three years without them invoking the 25th amendment out of pity for the man if nothing else.

    Oh, I’m sorry, I forgot Democrats don’t have emotions other than hate and envy.

    She was installed as the candidate to front-run an insurgency at this week’s convention by Hillary Clinton and her merry band of Neocons. Don’t expect them to take this sitting down, there are likely to be some sparks this week in Chicago, even if they don’t turn into a bonfire.

    So, that leads me to ask my question, not because I think Harris is some latent IQ160 or anything. I asked my question because this is a woman who faced zero real voters and is one vote-rigging operation away from the presidency.

    So, maybe she’s a genius when measuring her political intelligence.

    What if we’ve all been led down the primrose path of stooping to Trump’s level coming up with cute memes about her vast collection of knee pads or her inappropriate laughter at tragedy?

    What if that is exactly the means to lull us all into thinking there’s no way anyone will vote for this woman?

    And if this was any normal (a nebulous term these days at best) election, I would agree with you. But, for 90% of the fifty elections the US is going to hold for its president, who you vote for doesn’t matter.

    This is, as always, a five state race.

    All that matters is printing/counting the right number of votes in those five states and the rest is just a Benny Hill skit.

    Harris chose uber-commie and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate to what, exactly? Shore up the only state that voted for Walter Mondale in 1984? Really?

    No, it was to do a few things:

    1. Signal that they didn’t need Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro to win there.

    2. Continue Obama’s antipathy towards Israel. They don’t need “The Jews” anymore.

    3. Put the Quarter-Black HR Nanny in charge of the cucked White Guy.

    After that, all you have to do is use AI and special effects to make fake crowds supporting fake polls and faker ads to sell everyone on the idea that this woman is what Americans want to rule them over this…

    The sad part is that too many people still think this is all just part of the game. But it isn’t. It’s nothing more than the same playbook run in 2020 to create just enough plausible deniability that Harris can win this election before they steal it and dare us to do one damn thing about it.

    Or did you miss how upset the French and British are at their recent outcomes?

    So, Kamala cackles her way through scripted interviews. She and Walz dance around bringing “joy!” to the world. But when you actually get her talking about policy, about what she believes in, the cackling stops, the fangs come out, it’s just communism all the way down.

    I was asked by Sputnik News to comment on her announced economic plan. In short, it’s the same warmed-over ‘Eat the Rich,’ politics of envy the Democrats have used for decades to set the table for a class war where the soon-to-be permanent underclass is used to finish off destroying the middle class so that they both can live in squalor and be thankful for whatever thin gruel is left over.

    Those that don’t like it can go die in a meat grinder overseas somewhere else. Hey, at least it’s ‘3 hots and a cot’ right? Or is her ascension to the throne the moment when everyone gets just uncomfortable enough for the wolf to come out in a few million of us?

    No, I don’t think Harris is at all stupid. And I think we’d all do well to put away the memes and get serious about making sure that we make this a November 5th to her not to remember.

    Sputnik’s Questions and my full answers:

    1) Harris presented something that she called an “opportunity economy”. How different do you expect this to be from “Bidenomics”?

    Not much, to be honest. Democrats are looking to rebrand the same agenda they had during both Obama’s two terms and “Biden’s” one term. It’s all an extension of the original plan, which is to nationalize all the important sectors of the economy – housing, health care, energy, transportation – that the Federal Government didn’t already control, e.g. communication and defense.

    This strategy is simply to break the private economy — dislocate trillions of investment capital, displace millions of workers, disrupt supply chains – and then create new “opportunities” for those most harmed by these policies, the lowest strata of wage earners young people, by giving them handouts. This is classic ‘divide and rule’ politics engaged in by the oligarch class to set the lower class, in their terminology the ‘proletariat,’ against the middle class, the “bourgeoisie.’

    Nothing new here. Typical “Break your legs and hand you a crutch” politics.

    2) How are the measures that Harris’ economic plan includes going to be paid for?

    Debt at first and the hoped for transition to Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) after the debt passes the point of sustainability, where they just print money and tax your earnings at whatever rate they need to in order to maintain power, via programmable Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).

    3) Harris promised to push forward a federal government law against price gouging as a solution to Americans’ frustration with the high cost of living. What effect would a law like this have on prices? How would a small business react to such a law?

    The Democrats have been prepping this talking point for more than a year by sending out Elizabeth Warren to complain about corporations gouging us on food prices. But if you look at retailer, especially supermarket, corporate profits you’ll see their costs rising with our costs. The average bottom line margin for a supermarket chain is around 2%. If Harris and Warren think this is “Price Gouging” then they have no idea what the term means.

    Real costs of production will rise. Prices will rise. The government will then use a flat fining structure to punish the bad guys.

    Because of this small businesses will go under. Larger firms can always absorb the cost of new regulations better than smaller businesses. They are the primary target because they are the engine of economic growth. Harris is nothing new, just another in a long line of doctrinaire communists promoted via anti-democratic processes to serve an overclass desperate to hold onto power as their old system of wealth extraction reaches its terminal stage.

    4) How do you assess the possibility that a federal law against price gouging might backfire and trigger shortages?

    All price floors and price ceilings lead to shortages, never surpluses. This is literally first semester macro-economics. Harris and her handlers know this. In fact, they are counting on creating shortages. It’s part of the strategy in the end to destroy the country they lead.

    This is not stupidity or incompetence. It is policy.

    5) Harris promised to address housing affordability by issuing $25K support for first-time house byers. How would you expect such a measure to affect the housing market?

    It can’t stop the deflation of housing prices, it will only further dislocate the market by keeping prices up and suckering people who can’t afford a home into thinking they can. What needs to happen is sincere price corrections which reallocate scarce capital back to generating jobs that create wealth rather than subsidizing the things you buy once you have wealth.

    Starter homes now cost $180-200 per square foot to build in the US. At those prices, there are no new affordable homes. The tiny home industry in the US is booming. People are trying to right size their debt with their income. And are now coping with the insanity by telling themselves they can raise a family in 500 sq.ft. They can’t.

    So, again, what’s the goal? It’s not to put people in new homes. It’s to put people in smaller homes and/or choose to live in a rented space whose cost is subsidized by the government in the medium-term to nudge them towards the preferred outcome… living in cities with no food security, no real security, and constant/total surveillance.

    6) How realistic do you find Harris’ promise to build 3 million new houses?

    We can build any number of houses. The US has more than enough productive capacity to build 3 million houses. That’s not the right question. The right question is should we build any new houses, and for what price?

    It’s a talking point. A pathetic attempt to buy young voters who are increasingly looking at them and thinking they are crazy people.

    7) How successful do you expect Harris to be in distancing herself from the criticisms and negative effects that the Biden/Harris administration’s policies had on the US economy in recent years? How would you describe her target audience and why would this tactic work for it?

    She won’t be. You can’t run as the “reform candidate” when you are the incumbent. And nothing she has proposed is functionally any different than what was done previously while she was in office. Her target audience for this is the wholly unsophisticated young voter who is entering a broken workforce and economic landscape today and seeing nothing but a lack of real opportunities. They are hoping for a new round of “Obama Youth” to marshal into an effective fighting force for “Hope and Change.”

    What they are doing is purposefully increasing the possibility of full-blown civil war.

    8) How should we expect Harris’ economic plan to increase the US national debt?

    Exponentially. Again, that is the goal. They will use ruinous fiscal policy to run out the clock on Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve who are telling them that if they want their Communist revolution they will pay for it at 5.5% or higher. All of these ‘subsidy’ programs –food, housing, etc.—are meant to extend the current pricing regime until after the end of Powell’s term in 2026 and then close the loop, bringing the Fed back into the fold.

    *  *  *

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 19:50

  • Lebanon Plunged Into Darkness As Last Operational Power Plant Runs Out Of Fuel
    Lebanon Plunged Into Darkness As Last Operational Power Plant Runs Out Of Fuel

    The entirety of the Lebanese capital and the whole nation has been plunged into darkness amid a crippling power outage which has been in effect since midday Saturday.

    That’s when the state power provider Electricité du Liban (EDL) announced in a statement that “the last operational unit at the Zahrani power plant was forced to shut down completely, due to the complete depletion of the plant’s fuel oil reserves, resulting in a total power outage across all Lebanese territories.”

    The official statement identified that the shutdown affects “essential facilities such as the airport, port, water pumps, sewage systems and prisons.”

    The situation could grow dangerous for the citizenry given that even wastewater treatment facilities and drinking water pumping stations have been impacted, resulting in the South Lebanon Water Establishment to issue a statement “urging citizens to conserve water as much as possible due to the expected reduction in water supply.”

    Separate regional reports say that the government anticipated the depletion of fuel, and prepared for electricity generators to temporarily supply power to Beirut Airport for two days. 

    The General Director of Beirut Airport expressed hope that it can still be operational until additional fuel arrives, while caretaker Energy Minister Walid Fayad indicated a timeline of 24-48 hours for the resumption of regular power operations across the capital.

    Meanwhile, Lebanon’s Energy Minister Walid Fayyaz is seeking to assure the public that new gas shipments from Egypt will soon arrive at Lebanese ports to resupply the fuel required for power plants. Algeria too has in a fresh statement said it is ready to send emergency fuel assistance.

    While Lebanon’s economic and electricity and resource woes have been exacerbated by the de facto state of war between Hezbollah and Israel in the southern border, the reality is the country has already suffered energy shortages and rolling blackouts for at least the last two years following the banking and currency crisis.

    Neighboring Syria too has also had regular blackouts and periods where the water is turned off going back years. The whole region came under severe wartime economic strain going back to the height of the Syrian proxy war, and the full impact on smaller Lebanon is now being felt full force. But is also a story of severe mismanagement by the Central Bank of Lebanon, also amid long-running and historic corruption and elite cronyism.

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    Some Western analysts have blamed Hezbollah for stealing and diverting fuel and electricity from Beirut airport, and for holding the country’s resources hostage, but the economic woes are a much bigger force which have been felt for a long time before the current conflict with Israel.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 19:15

  • IDF Expands Gaza Operations As Blinken Arrives For 9th Visit To Israel
    IDF Expands Gaza Operations As Blinken Arrives For 9th Visit To Israel

    US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has landed in Israel on Sunday for his ninth visit since Oct.7 as part of an ongoing effort to achieve ceasefire in Gaza, and to gain the release of the hostages.

    He’s expected to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at 11 a.m. tomorrow (local time), alongside which there will be meetings with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Foreign Minister Israel Katz and President Isaac Herzog.

    The Biden administration has constantly claimed to be “at the goal line” of achieving a truce deal, a refrain heard for months, but with still nothing official to show.

    Via RTE

    Both warring sides have blamed the other. Hamas has long insisted on a full Israeli military withdrawal as a condition for releasing the hostages.

    But Netanyahu has countered that he will not order troops out of Gaza until Hamas as an organization is destroyed and fully eradicated. Some of his own generals, however, have argued that this will be impossible and an protracted, or even endless insurgency will result.

    The latest words of Netanyahu reveal he won’t budge despite international and US pressure: 

    Speaking at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that Israel is sticking to its demands in ongoing hostage talks, positions that he says are in line with the proposal laid out by the White House in May.

    “We are conducting very complex negotiations,” he says, “while on the other side stands a murderous, uninhibited, and obstinate terrorist organization.”

    “But I want to emphasize,” the premier continues, “we are conducting negotiations [“give-and-take” in Hebrew], and not give-and-give. There are areas where we can show flexibility, and there are area where we can’t show flexibility — and we are standing firm on them. We know quite well how to distinguish between the two.”

    For whatever ‘optimism’ comes out of Doha, and for whatever ‘carrots’ the US hopes to use to entice both sides to at least agree to a pause in fighting, Blinken’s ninth trip appears yet another diplomatic exercise in futility.

    The US still hasn’t hesitated to approve gargantuan defense packages for Israel of late. So in the end Tel Aviv clearly has little to fear from White House ‘pressure’. 

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    At the same time US progressives and also conservative anti-war activists have long pointed out that the White House’s condemnation of the unfolding humanitarian disaster, which US-supplied bombs are having an outsized role in, is all for show and mere public relations damage control.

    And likely that’s what Blinken’s latest trip to the region is all about. There will be much high-ideal rhetoric and little substance. And the war and escalation will continue. Meanwhile a Times of Israel Sunday top headline reads: IDF expanding operations in southern, central Gaza… even as Blinken is in country.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 18:05

  • Vast Stretches Of America Are So Depressed That They Look Like Something Out Of A Horror Movie
    Vast Stretches Of America Are So Depressed That They Look Like Something Out Of A Horror Movie

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    The wealthy are doing just fine at the moment, but they don’t seem to understand that much of the country is deeply hurting right now.  59 percent of Americans believe that the U.S. economy is currently experiencing a recession, and that is because most of them are personally experiencing economic pain.  Literally just about everything is substantially more expensive in 2024, more major layoffs are being announced with each passing day, and thousands of businesses are going bankrupt.  We haven’t seen a tsunami of economic suffering like this in a long time.

    If you live in a wealthy area in a good part of the country, you may wonder what all of the fuss is about.

    If you and everyone around you is still doing well, life may still seem quite good.

    But the truth is that there are vast stretches of this country that are so depressed that they literally look like something out of a horror movie.

    There are many communities that are so plagued by poverty, drugs, homelessness, violence and theft that it seems like there is no possible way that things could ever turn around.

    A man named Drew Binksy recently visited one of the poorest parts of West Virginia, and he discovered that most of the people there are living in poverty…

    ‘Most of [the residents] live below the poverty line and life expectancy is well below the national average.

    ‘Many families rely on Government assistance just to get by and there’s limited access to healthcare.’

    Today, tens of millions of Americans are heavily dependent on the checks that they get from the government each month.

    In areas where most people have lost hope of ever finding a better life, drug addiction often runs rampant, and that is precisely what Binksy witnessed…

    He also notes that ‘crystal meth and Fentanyl addictions run wild’ in the state, while many people are ‘living so isolated, they have their own dialect.’

    The content creator starts his journey in Bluefield and as he wanders through the once prosperous manufacturing city, he says it feels like he has stepped into ‘a forgotten world.’

    He continues: ‘Empty streets and closed shops stretch as far as the eye can see. It’s like life just stopped.’

    This is where the entire country is heading.

    Just a few days ago, I wrote about the “retail apocalypse” that is rapidly spreading across America.

    Thousands upon thousands of stores are closing, and most of those abandoned stores will not be filled any time soon.

    But at least they will make convenient locations for drug addicts to gather.

    According to one woman that Binksy interviewed, 30 percent of the people in her community are into illegal drugs…

    One woman in the store tells the camera crew: ‘We’re the poorest county in the United States or we were.

    ‘About 30 per cent of our community are dopers, druggies… more than 30 per cent!’

    The same conditions are being repeated in rural community after rural community all over America.

    Sadly, the standard of living in our rural communities is going to continue to go down because the cost of living just keeps going up…

    The cost of frozen noncarbonated juices and drinks has risen by 19.2 percent from July 2023 – the most of any grocery item.

    Eggs, meanwhile, have increased by 19.1 percent in price, and frankfurters are now 9.7 percent more expensive.

    The cost of bacon, beef roasts, pork chops and butter have also risen notably in the last year.

    In terms of non-food items, car insurance is the biggest riser in the last year – with an 18.6 percent price hike.

    We have already reached a stage where a large portion of the population cannot even afford the basics.

    As I shared yesterday, I was absolutely shocked to learn that 39 percent of Americans have been forced to skip meals so that they will have enough money to make their housing payments…

    39% of Americans say they’ve skipped meals to make housing payments, per Clever Real Estate survey.

    And among millennials, that figure rose to 44%. Among Baby Boomers, it was 20%.

    It is no wonder why so many voters are so deeply frustrated with the current state of the economy.

    This is our country now, and the outlook for the future is not positive at all.

    In fact, it appears that very alarming changes are starting to happen in the employment market as large companies lay off large numbers of workers…

    Another domino falls for recession as job creation turns negative for small businesses, which employ nearly half of all Americans.

    In the past year, payrolls for companies with under 50 employees plunged by nearly 100,000, while job trends were flat for midsized businesses up to 500 employees.

    The only bright spot was big businesses—which might be changing, given recent layoff announcements, including 2,500 at Chrysler, 4,000 at Cisco, 12,000 at Dell, and 15,000 at Intel. Paramount and the left-wing Axios both cut 10% to 15% of their workforce.

    20 years ago, most American families were clearly thriving.

    Today, most American families are clearly struggling.

    This change occurred so gradually that most people didn’t even realize what was happening.

    The gap between the wealthy and the rest of us is now larger than ever, and our major cities are teeming with millions of highly desperate people.

    This story is not going to end well, but most of you already knew that.

    When people feel like they have nothing left to lose, it doesn’t take much to push them over the edge.

    Unfortunately, it appears that the next few months represent a major tipping point, and it won’t be too long before all of the frustration that has been building up in this country starts to boil over.

    *  *  *

    Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 17:30

  • Could Democrats Make Kamala Harris President Before Election?
    Could Democrats Make Kamala Harris President Before Election?

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    An opinion piece in The Hill posits that Democrats could spring the ultimate October surprise by making Kamala Harris president before the election in November.

    Douglas MacKinnon notes that “This is already the most surreal presidential election of our lifetimes,” and that it could get even more bizarre.

    He adds, “I wrote several times in this space over the last two years that I never believed Biden would be the nominee, and I was proven right. I also honestly believe Trump will pull away from Harris come September and October.”

    “So, what then? How would the Democrats and the Harris campaign react to that?” MacKinnon wonders.

    He suggests that “At some point, might it become politically expedient to the Democrats to elevate Harris to the presidency for the remainder of the campaign?” adding “Is anything off the table in this weird election cycle? I don’t think so.”

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    As is well documented, Democrats could invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Biden from office. But at this point, it would be clearly a political move. Biden has not been running anything for three years anyway.

    MacKinnon suggests the 25th may not even be needed, noting that Biden could even enter the Democratic National Convention and say “I’ve had it. I’m done. I am resigning from my office and going back to Delaware.”

    It’s a bit far fetched, but who knows with the state of this election cycle.

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    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 16:20

  • Chechen Warlord Shows Off Cybertruck With Heavy Machine Gun Turret
    Chechen Warlord Shows Off Cybertruck With Heavy Machine Gun Turret

    Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov claimed on Telegram on Saturday, “We received a Tesla cybertruck from the respected Elon Musk.”

    Kadyrov’s claim that he received a Cyberbeast from Elon Musk or Tesla was not independently confirmed. Given that the US State Department has sanctioned Kadyrov over numerous human rights violations, the warlord more than likely bought the vehicle off the black market or through a third party.

    Video uploaded on Telegram shows the warlord parading the Cyberbeast with a heavy machine gun mounted in the rear bed around Chechnya, a republic within the Russian Federation.

    Kadyrov said, “I express my sincere gratitude to Elon Musk! This is, of course, the strongest genius of our time and a specialist. Great man! Well, the cybertruck turned out to be a powerful project. Undoubtedly one of the best cars in the world! I literally fell in love with this car.” 

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    “Based on such excellent characteristics, the cybertruck will soon be sent to the North-East Military District zone, where it will be in demand under appropriate conditions. I am sure this “beast” will bring a lot of benefits to our soldiers,” he said.

    If the translation is accurate, the Cybertruck could soon be battle-tested on the modern battlefield in Eastern Europe. However, the stainless steel exoskeleton, which can withstand impact from a 9 mm handgun, would need to be upgraded with heavy armor to withstand rifle rounds and IEDs. 

    On Friday, we were the first to reveal Archimedes Defense and Unplugged Performance’s UP.FIT’s new bolt-on ‘ultimate defense upgrade‘ for the Tesla Cybetruck to protect against “14.5mm heavy machine gun rounds” and “IED/mine protection” for military and defense operations. 

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    Without additional steel and ceramic armor plating to stop heavy machine gun rounds and a ‘V-hull’ to protect the battery pack, plus a turbine generator in the rear to provide constant charging, Kadyrov’s claim the Cybertruck will be sent to the battlefield is just a stunt. After all, a Ukranian kamikaze drone would easily penetrate the glass roof.  

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 15:45

  • Catalysts And What Type Of Landing
    Catalysts And What Type Of Landing

    By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

    Catalysts and What Type Of Landing?

    AI came back with a vengeance as equal weighted and small cap indices lagged.

    Inflation seems to be under control (by recent standards), which helped markets. We were a bit surprised how strongly the market reacted to PPI, as it is generally a tier 2 piece of data, and we seem to continue to underestimate how many people are very concerned about a rebound in inflation (we are not).

    But the big story seems to have been that we are back to a “soft” or “no” landing. Better than expected retail sales seemed to pave the way for many to wipe out the “recession” risk narrative. Retail sales and jobless claims (not anything I would hang my hat on) helped reverse all the fears about the economy.

    In some ways, we saw less evidence of froth as some of the larger, tech-focused ETFs didn’t see a surge of inflows. Offsetting that, at least a little, is the successful launch of MSTX. Anything that has $16 million in AUM in two days seems pretty decent, since all it does is leverage MSTR’s daily returns. I need to dig out an “April Fools’ Day” note I did on ETFs – as dark comedy becomes reality. Evidence that quantitative funds were loading back up on stocks as they retook various technical levels made sense. Somewhat more difficult to digest was chatter that people were piling back into the “yen carry trade” based on the BOJ’s “promises” not to mess with the currency during times of volatility.

    One thing we continue to witness that makes us very cautious on position size is the lack of liquidity in both directions. Moves in both directions seem amplified relative to the data or catalyst for the move. Yes, everything felt great most days last week, but I put very little faith in the idea that we’ve developed a “strong base” of support here.

    Let’s look at the potential catalysts.

    Catalysts – The Fed

    We get Jackson Hole this week. Back during the financial crisis, this event provided a great forum for Bernanke and others to lay out policy shifts (sometimes radical policy shifts). Don’t expect much this time around. The topic is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” While we could glean some information about future Fed decisions, they will likely try to avoid that and focus on how they will behave in some more distant future. Personally, I think QE should be categorized as a “nuclear option” and only used when absolutely necessary, and on the smallest possible scale, for the shortest period of time, but that is unlikely to occur.

    The Fed minutes might tell us how close they were to cutting in July (we think they should have), but again, that seems largely priced in now.

    With the market pricing in cuts at a pace only marginally faster than our base case, I’m not expecting a lot of movement in bonds or stocks based on the Fed this week.

    Catalysts – Earnings

    NVDA isn’t until August 28th. Other earnings will matter. The AI front is important, and it was incredibly important that Walmart highlighted how important AI had been in driving their performance in a recent earnings release. The one thing we’ve been looking for is “AI Success” stories. Not from the companies that benefit from AI adoption, but from AI users. That note fit the bill and more notes like that will convince us that valuations might not have gotten ahead of themselves in the space. The other thing we will all be looking for is anything that points to the direction of the economy and the consumer.

    Catalysts – The U.S. Election

    My head already hurts thinking about this election. Presumably, we will get a bit more policy information during this week’s DNC in Chicago and a likely additional bump in the polls (as is typical). Then I think – and I had to recheck the math a few times – more than 10 weeks of campaigning remain. I’m not sure how many more twists, plot turns, and truly “unprecedented” things will happen between now and the election, but I think we will get some more shocks.

    I remain wedded to the view that as the campaign heats up and policies get announced, we will realize that large annual budget deficits are on the horizon regardless of who wins. The amount of debt that needs to be issued, with a “cavalier” attitude towards debt creation, is going to continue to grow. The Fed will control the front end, but I expect the market will respond by re-installing some element of term premium.

    Catalysts – Geopolitical Risk

    For the first time in weeks, we are decreasing the near-term geopolitical risk, for two key reasons.

    • The consensus view is that when Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of rockets, missiles, and drones, it was merely “for show” as it was well-telegraphed and failed to damage Israel. Several members of the Geopolitical Intelligence Group pointed out that the attack was too large and too well-coordinated to be “merely” a show. That it wasn’t a coincidence that after the failed attack, Iran seemed to reduce sales to Russia (forcing the Russians to turn to North Korea) so that Iran could rebuild their stockpiles. One reason why Iran may not have retaliated since Israel killed the political leader of Hamas in Tehran, is that they haven’t figured out a better strategy and are too worried about another failed attempt (while at the same time, they are worried about being too successful and prompting Israel to attack Iran’s facilities).
    • Political uncertainty in the U.S. seemed to have created an opportunity to “test” us. Now, from a variety of conversations, there might be a willingness to see how this plays out. The chance that the new administration will be easier to work with than the current administration, from their perspective, might have them wait.

    The big caveat to that is how will Russia respond to Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory. For many, you could see this as an event bringing both sides to the negotiating table. On the other hand, Russia may view this as a reason to up the ante on their offensives in Ukraine.

    Catalysts – The Economy

    Talk about burying the lede. Normally we start with the most important piece and work our way down. But today we wanted to address the other potential catalysts briefly, before digging into the main event – the direction of the economy!

    Advance retail sales popped nicely, but the control group, while still “ok,” declined. In general, these numbers had been tracking each other reasonably well in terms of direction and it looks like last month’s deviation was just corrected. Not a big knock-on retail sales, but at least a question mark.

    “Amazon Prime Day” was July 16th and 17th. That event has become so big that it has spurred all sorts of price competition in and around it. So “goods were for sale” this past month – which the American consumer loves! How much demand was pulled forward by the sales? Many economists who predict these data points had discussed the possibility of upside surprises due to the sales. While encouraging, I would take this uptick in sales with some caution, as it likely indicated that demand was pulled forward to buy items on sale, rather than truly strong consumer spending.

    From Zerohedge, we get this chart of revisions.

    Revisions for the past year have been consistently to the downside, and to a non-trivial amount. No guarantee that this one was also overstated, but it is worth paying some attention to.

    This fits a running theme: that for whatever reason, initial readings on jobs and sales seem to overstate what actually occurred as the officials have more time to collect data.

    The other “intriguing” part of the report was that auto sales were a big contributor.

    That is possible, as U.S. Auto Sales Total Annualized SAAR popped from 15.3mm to 15.8mm between June and July.

    I could not find an ETF for U.S. or global automakers. I found a European centric one and did a simple calc for a U.S. proxy. Again, the charts tell more of a mixed story.

    The stocks, which should capture the future expectations, have rebounded of late (positive) but are still well below where we were at the start of July (not positive).

    The Manheim Used Auto Index, one of my “favorites” since the start of COVID, did see a small uptick in values in July, but it was not the first month with an uptick in what has been a pretty steady decline from the “I cannot find a vehicle anywhere” peak as we reopened from COVID. While not a “perfect substitute” for new car prices, it probably doesn’t help the price of new cars when used ones are more readily available.

    We’ve also seen inventory-to-sales ratios creep higher. Still below pre-COVID levels, but it is nearing those levels, and heading in a direction that is not great for pricing power on the part of dealers.

    Then we get to the nitty gritty of the consumer. There are a variety of “auto delinquency” indices on Bloomberg. We chose this one, but they all tell a similar story – delinquencies are rising. They are nearing or above “normal” levels. What we don’t know (or at least I don’t know) is how many loans were issued based on high residual values when the used car market was en fuego, hence exposing the lender to some potential losses as the used car market has softened since the peak.

    As credit card delinquencies are also rising (depending on which measure you use, back above pre-COVID levels), we can see that the amount of revolving debt for the consumer has expanded well above the trend line. While consumers are still willing and/or able to borrow – we see no problems. But we’ve seen credit stabilize and even dip in some months lately. That could be a function of some consumers putting the brakes on themselves (they know their own job prospects, etc.) or it could be lenders tightening. In any case, not sure how supportive this chart is for consumer consumption going forward!

    Yes, bank deposits remain high and money market funds continue to set new records, but as the economy continues to bifurcate into the “haves” and “have nots,” not sure how useful the “money on the sidelines” argument is. Those with money are fully gorged, and those without are losing access to what they need.

    Yes, the economy is largely driven by what people in the middle do, but my concern is that (and we see some of this in which retailers are doing well versus those that are doing less well) much of the middle class it close to tapping out (or just willing to spend on bargains).

    We won’t have much clarity on the economy until the first week of September when the jobs reports start hitting, but I am leaning towards investors getting concerned about recession risk.

    Bottom Line

    Far from out of the woods on the economy and markets. Stocks staged an impressive rally last week.

    • Lack of liquidity helped push markets further on data than they might have moved otherwise.
    • We never saw panic – a touch of fear, but not panic. And while not back to full froth, it seems clear that we are back in greed mode.

    It would be great to see a resilient economy, and that any indications of slowing were an anomaly. Over the coming days and weeks, I think retail sales and a couple of initial jobless claims reports will be exposed as the anomalies.

    I fail to see how the election campaigns give any comfort to buyers of longer-dated Treasuries. Yes, the Fed helps. Yes, lower inflation helps. Yes, a potential slowdown helps, but as every politician seems to create policies that are variations of “vote or donation buying,” I am not sure bond investors can be as comfortable as they currently are.

    Clearly I’m still in some sort of the “bumpy” landing crowd, and this week’s data did little to dissuade me from that. The most bullish information that I’m trying to work into my analysis is the actual praise of AI by a user, which we had not seen enough of, and this could turn the tide.

    There are many potential catalysts, but at this point, anything that drives us one way or the other on the “type of landing” to expect will be extra important to markets.

    Good luck, and for those trying to take some vacation time, hopefully this week plays out calmly. But I suspect volatility and dramatic moves will be the norm again this week across markets.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 15:10

  •  "Wet Winter Whirlwind": Farmers' Almanac Releases New Winter Forecast For US 
     “Wet Winter Whirlwind”: Farmers’ Almanac Releases New Winter Forecast For US 

    It’s that time of year again—while many visit the beach and or mountains before the school season kicks off in just a few weeks, others are already beginning to prepare for the upcoming winter season, with new forecasts from the Farmers’ Almanac. 

    The 208th edition of the Farmers’ Almanac is titled “Wet Winter Whirlwind” and revealed, “There will be a lot of precipitation and storms”—all dependent on location.  

    Winter Temperatures – How Cold?

    The Almanac is predicting a deep chill to settle over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes regions for much of the winter season. But don’t think the South is off the hook. Southern areas can still expect some frigid blasts from Old Man Winter, even if the temperatures are slightly more moderate overall. Cold snaps are forecast to hit during the final week of January into early February, with the Northern Plains potentially seeing the most extreme cold.

    Snow?

    The Northeast is in the bullseye for a barrage of storms this winter, with the Farmers’ Almanac calling for above-normal amounts of winter precipitation. Ski-lovers will enjoy nice powder days. Snow will likely be more plentiful in the interior and mountainous regions of New England and the Northeast, while those near the coast can expect more sleet and rain. And if you live in the Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes, or Southeast, get ready for a wet, white, and slushy season.

    On the flip side, the Southwest and South Central States are looking at a drier winter with below-normal precipitation.

    Here is the Farmers’ Almanac’s forecast map for the upcoming 2024-25 winter season across the Lower 48.

    Farmers’ Almanac Editor Sandi Duncan told USA TODAY, “It definitely looks more wet than white in many areas,” adding, “Obviously, depending on where you live, there might be more white than wet, but we’re focusing in on the wet winter ahead.”

    The weather prediction formula that Farmers’ Almanac uses revolves around a climate pattern known as La Niña, likely to emerge in September-November. 

    Remember that the emergence of La Nina can impact weather conditions across the Lower 48 this coming winter season.

    Duncan said, “The coldest temperatures look like they’re going to be over the North Central States into the Great Lakes area.” 

    She noted that much of the country can expect a wet Thanksgiving holiday, “except for way out in the Southwest,” and even said Christmas “looks wet rather than white for most areas.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 14:35

  • WHO Raises Outbreak Alarm As Once Eradicated Polio Returns To Gaza
    WHO Raises Outbreak Alarm As Once Eradicated Polio Returns To Gaza

    Authored by Brett Wilkins via Common Dreams,

    Following over a month of warnings, Gaza recorded its first case of polio since the highly contagious virus was eradicated there 25 years ago, prompting a Friday call by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres for a temporary truce to enable a vaccination drive in the embattled strip.

    The Gaza Health Ministry said Friday that an 10-month-old infant in the central city of Deir al-Balah “who has not received any polio vaccine dose” has tested positive for the virus, which often causes paralysis and can be fatal. The ministry said the baby is one of “a number of children” who have presented with symptoms consistent with polio in recent days.

    Via AFP

    “The continued brutal Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip has caused a health disaster as witnessed by international organizations,” the ministry added, citing “the lack of basic hygiene needs, the lack of sanitation services, the accumulation of waste on the streets and around the shelters of the displaced, and the lack of safe drinking water” as factors that “have created a conducive environment for outbreaks.”

    Responding to the news, Guterres implored Israeli and Palestinian forces to lay down their arms so that U.N. humanitarian aid workers can launch a campaign to vaccinate half a million Gazan children.

    “I am appealing to all parties to provide concrete assurances right away guaranteeing humanitarian pauses for the campaign,” he told reporters at the U.N. headquarters in New York.

    “Let’s be clear: The ultimate vaccine for polio is peace and an immediate humanitarian cease-fire,” Guterres stressed. “But in any case, a polio pause is a must.”

    The U.N. World Health Organization and other groups sounded the alarm after poliovirus type 2 was found in Gaza wastewater last month. The discovery prompted the Israel Defense Forces to offer polio vaccines to its soldiers taking part in the invasion of the coastal enclave. Earlier this month, the Gaza Health Ministry declared the entire strip a “polio epidemic zone.”

    Guterres said Friday that Gaza’s health, water, and sanitation systems “have been decimated” by Israeli attacks, which have destroyed or damaged most hospitals and primary care facilities and created fertile ground for the spread of disease.

    As Leslie Roberts wrote recently for Science:

    The poliovirus is transmitted through the “fecal-oral” route—by contact with the feces of an infected child or consumption of water or food contaminated by fecal matter. The conditions in which the 1.9 million displaced Gazans are living—crammed into unhygienic camps with little access to clean water and sanitation and untreated sewage flowing openly between tents—create an ideal environment for the virus to thrive.

    Since the war began in October 2023, 70% of water and sanitation facilities in Gaza have been significantly damaged, and about 340,000 tons of solid waste have accumulated in or near populated areas, according to an estimate from the U.N. Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene Cluster. In June, Oxfam estimated there is just one toilet for every 4,130 people in Al-Mawasi, a supposed “safe zone” west of Khan Younis that recently came under Israeli attack.

    In addition to polio, Israel’s assault on Gaza and its disruption of medical supplies have fueled the spread of other preventable diseases including measles and hepatitis A.

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    “We know how an effective polio vaccination campaign must be administered,” Guterres said. “Given the wholesale devastation in Gaza, at least 95% vaccination coverage will be needed during each round of the two-round campaign to prevent polio’s spread and reduce its emergence.”

    The Gaza Health Ministry said that it has been working with the U.N. and other international organizations “over the past weeks on developing an integrated comprehensive plan for the implementation of an expanded polio vaccination campaign in the Gaza Strip,” and that it will “carry out a vaccination campaign in the next few days targeting children under the age of 10.”

    Children, who make up around half of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million people, have been particularly hard-hit by Israel’s 316-day Gaza onslaught. More than 16,000 of the at least 40,000 Palestinians killed by Israeli bombs and bullets are minors. The “complete siege” of Gaza—which has been entered as evidence in the International Court of Justice genocide trial against Israel—has disrupted the entry of food, medicine, and other vital supplies, fueling a famine that has killed dozens of Palestinian children.

    The Gaza Health Ministry said 1.1 million doses of a two-dose, orally administered type 2 polio vaccine have been provided by the United Nations Children’s Fund, with another 400,000 doses on the way. UNICEF said it “is coordinating delivery efforts and the cold chain equipment needed for storage.”

    Medical teams from the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)—which is the largest healthcare provider in Gaza, even as Israeli forces have killed around 200 of its workers—said they are ready to administer the polio vaccines and assist in their distribution.

    The Gaza Health Ministry renewed its “appeal to the international community and the international health organizations to speed up intervention to immediately stop the barbaric Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, work to prepare the ground conditions in order to rescue what can be salvaged, and provide immediate healthcare services to… our people.”

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    The agency also made an “urgent appeal” for “the necessity of immediate action to rebuild safe drinking water and sanitation systems, dispose of medical and solid waste, work on importing fuel to pump clean fresh water, and allow unconditional entry of medical supplies, medicines, and special materials used for personal hygiene.”

    Guterres underscored the need to “defeat a vicious virus that, left unchecked, would have a disastrous effect not only for Palestinian children in Gaza, but also in neighboring countries and the region.”

    “Polio does not care about dividing lines, and polio does not wait,” he said. “Polio goes beyond politics. It transcends all divisions. And so it is our shared obligation to come together. To mobilize—not to fight people, but to fight polio.” However, he stressed, “it is impossible to conduct a polio vaccination campaign with war raging all over.”

    “A successful polio vaccination campaign needs safety,” Guterres added. “Safety for health workers to do their jobs. Safety for children and families to get to the health facilities. And safety for those health facilities to be protected from bombardment.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 14:00

  • Belarus Says Ukraine Amassing Troops At Border; Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Suffers Drone Attack
    Belarus Says Ukraine Amassing Troops At Border; Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Suffers Drone Attack

    Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has warned Sunday that Ukraine is also amassing troops on Belarus’ border amid the ongoing incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Lukashenko alleged that Kiev has positioned more than 120,000 soldiers along its border with Belarus and this is being deemed an act of ‘aggression’ by military authorities. But it is curious where Ukraine got the manpower for this, if accurate.

    State-run BelTA quoted Lukashenko as saying, “Seeing their aggressive policy, we have introduced there and placed in certain points – in case of war, they would be defense – our military along the entire border.”

    West Asia News Agency/Reuters

    Thus he made it clear that Belarusian forces could counter-attack into Ukraine if Minsk observes any Ukrainian incursion on its sovereign territory.

    These extreme border tensions are nothing new, given Belarus has long been a logistics hub and staging ground for Russia’s Ukraine operations; however, the whole Kursk shock cross-border operation has certainly upped the ante.

    While these constitute serious threats from Lukashenko, it is as yet unclear how many regular army troops have been sent to bolster the state security services’ some 12,000 border guards already typically deployed.

    Meanwhile, Russia has launched another ballistic missile attack on Kiev in retaliation for the Kursk invasion. This one was an early morning Sunday assault, with the Kyiv City Military Administration stating on Telegram: “This is the third ballistic missile attack on the capital in August with a clear interval of six days between each attack.” Drones were also sent, with Ukraine’s military saying it intercepted all of them.

    Also, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has issued new warnings and concerns over the situation at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which since early in the war has been occupied by Russian troops and authorities. The IAEA warned the safety of the complex is “deteriorating” following a nearby weekend drone strike. The IAEA further—

    …warned on Saturday of an escalation in the security dangers at the plant, reporting “intense” military activity over the past week in the area, including very close to the plant.

    …IAEA experts on site reported that the damage “seemed to have been caused by a drone equipped with an explosive payload”, affecting the road between the plant’s two main gates.

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    It seems the Ukrainians are attempting to stage a provocation in a desperate act following accusations from President Zelensky last week that the Russians set fire to the plant.

    Fighting inside Kursk is still intense, with Ukraine forces have destroyed a second key bridge, which strongly suggests they plan to seek to hold territory for significantly longer. The Associated Press details on Sunday:

    Ukraine has destroyed a key bridge in Russia’s Kursk region and struck a second one nearby, less than two weeks into its stunning cross-border incursion, disrupting Russian supply routes and possibly signaling that its troops are planning to dig in.

    Russia’s pro-Kremlin military bloggers have acknowledged that the destruction of the first bridge, which spanned the Seim River near the town of Glushkovo, will impede deliveries of supplies to Russian forces repelling Ukraine’s incursion, although Moscow could still use pontoons and smaller bridges in the area. Ukraine’s air force chief, Lt. Mykola Oleshchuk, on Friday released a video of a Ukrainian airstrike that split the bridge in two.

    Less than two days later, Ukrainian troops hit a second bridge in Russia, according to Oleshchuk and the Russian regional governor, Alexei Smirnov.

    Still, Russian defense ministry statements continue to try and paint a positive picture, with a top ranking Commander Major General Apty Alaudinov telling TASS on Sunday “Our situation is completely under control.”

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    “The enemy is trying to break through into our territory around the clock. All these attempts end with the elimination of the enemy and the burning of the equipment. That is why we are destroying the enemy’s reserves,” he told TASS.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 13:25

  • The Curious Story Of Taylor Lorenz … And Belated Concerns Of The Washington Post
    The Curious Story Of Taylor Lorenz … And Belated Concerns Of The Washington Post

    Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org,

    There is a rather curious controversy brewing over one of the Washington Post’s most controversial writers, Taylor Lorenz. The “tech columnist” for the Post has drawn continual criticism over public meltdowns and alleged doxxing. However, the Post seemed to value her notoriety…until she posted a picture of President Joe Biden with “war criminal” on it. Lorenz appeared to suggest that others added those words before various mainstream media outlets contradicted her account. She is now denying that she denied it was her words and the Post is investigating. What is most curious, however, is what it takes for the Post to investigate alleged false claims by its columnists.

    Lorenz posted the image during the White House Creator Economy Conference with the President. Many on the left have characterized Biden as a “war criminal” for his stance on Gaza.

    Mainstream media outlets reported the posting by a prominent Post columnist in echoing the criticism of Biden.

    Lorenz then responded by seemingly denying that she posted the words, chiding others on X that “[y]ou people will fall for any dumbass edit someone makes.”

    Many outlets then covered the story that Lorenz was denying the post. However, that produced a torrent of skepticism from even liberal outlets. For example, NPR ran a story that verified that the photo and “war criminal” caption were real:

    NPR has obtained a screengrab of Lorenz’s actual post, which contained that caption. … Four people with direct knowledge of the private Instagram story confirmed its authenticity to NPR. They spoke to NPR on condition they not be identified due to the professional sensitivity of the situation for Lorenz.

    After the NPR and other stories questioned her account, Lorenz publicly issued her denial of the earlier denial. She tweeted that “I literally never ‘denied it was real.’” She added “Yeah that’s saying they’re falling for (charitable view) something that’s an obvious meme reference by taking it seriously. Please don’t put words in my mouth[.]”

    So now, the Post is looking into it.

    For some of us, the controversy only adds to the uncertainty over the current standards at the Post. For example, there is apparently no problem in a White House Post reporter supporting government censorship of Donald Trump as an “America issue.”

    Likewise, the Post has publicly stood with reporters who have repeatedly published false claims and conspiracy theories. Take Philip Bump, who had a meltdown in an interview when confronted over past false claims. After I wrote a column about the litany of such false claims, the Post surprised many of us by issuing a statement that they stood by all of Bump’s reporting, including false columns on the Lafayette Park protests, Hunter Biden laptop and other stories.  That was long after other media debunked the claims, but the Post stood by the false reporting.

    There was no announced or apparent investigation into those claims, or similar alleged false or misleading claims by political or legal columnists. Many of those past controversies involved false claims directed against former president Donald Trump.

    The future of Taylor Lorenz is hardly a weighty question for American journalism. However, the lack of consistency on these issues is a matter of concern, particularly as the Post tries to come to grips with falling readership and revenue.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 12:50

  • "Make It Great Like '68": Chicago Businesses Board Up As Protesters Threaten To Shut Down DNC 
    “Make It Great Like ’68”: Chicago Businesses Board Up As Protesters Threaten To Shut Down DNC 

    Tens of thousands of protesters are expected to descend near the Democratic National Convention in downtown Chicago in the coming days. Local media reports that shops have already boarded up doors and windows with plywood ahead of what could be a chaotic week. 

    Crews with Chicago Board Up Services told WGN-TV that at least a dozen shops around the West Loop, downtown, and Daley Plaza have been completely boarded up. They expect additional businesses to do the same. 

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    Scott Schapiro, the owner of Syd Jerome, a menswear shop at 20 N. Clark St., told NBC Chicago that he is no stranger to smash-and-grab and looting in the metro area and decided to take extra precautions, such as boarding up doors and windows ahead of the convention – where thousands of protesters are expected.

    “You get that phone call in the middle of the night and your heart jumps out of your chest,” Schapiro told the local media outlet.

    He continued, “We want to sleep a little more soundly at night, and this gives us a little security, and we hope that there isn’t any incident obviously, but in the event there is, we want to have maximum protection.” 

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    Protest organizers told NBC News that 20,000 demonstrators from several states will take over downtown streets in an approved protest area near the Democratic National Convention. 

    “The 264 protest groups that have said they will participate are primarily focused on Palestinian rights, ending the war in Gaza and reducing US aid to Israel,” NBC said, adding, “Others represent a patchwork of left-leaning causes: climate activists, socialists, anti-racist organizations, queer and trans rights groups.” 

    Mayor Brandon Johnson informed business owners and residents last week that the metro area is well prepared for social unrest. He reiterated that Chicago’s police force has worked with the Secret Service and other law enforcement agencies. 

    Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker brushed off fears that next week’s Democratic National Convention could erupt into the same kind of violence experienced during the 1968 convention.

    Other local media outlets predict a much larger crowd size, upwards of 100,000 pro-Palestinian protesters.

    One protest organization, Behind Enemy Lines, has called for “Make it Great like ’68,” referring to the riots at the 1968 Democratic Convention. 

    “We’re not calling for violence or planning on anything illegal, but we think that there’s ways for people to protest that do go beyond business as usual,” the group spokesperson said, who asked not to be named and quoted by WBEZ Chicago. 

    The media outlet explained, “Behind Enemy Lines has opened a temporary office on Chicago’s Northwest Side, decorated with posters bearing slogans such as “Stop Killer Kamala” and “Fight Back for Gaza!”” 

    Any outbreak of civil disobedience could ignite a wave of bad press for VP Harris and the Democrats.

    VP Harris is already coming off a week of terrible headlines after debuting her first economic policies, including communist-style price controls.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 12:15

  • The Super-Wealthy Have A Problem
    The Super-Wealthy Have A Problem

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    The less self-congratulatory camp of the super-wealthy understand the pressure cooker of inequality and unfairness is going to blow unless they relinquish some of their unearned gains generated by Fed policies.

    The cultural consensus holds that the super-wealthy always manage to come out ahead in any spot of bother. Due to their grip on the levers of financial and political power, whatever lays waste to the bottom 90% of the populace is either 1) an opportunity to increase their wealth or 2) a minor bump in the road to ever-expanding wealth.

    History offers an abundance of examples. A favorite of mine is the guest books of the French chateaus owned by the super-wealthy, which logged visits from the Usual Suspects (political and financial bigshots) until 1940, when the names of Nazi bigshots began filling the ledgers, and then in 1945, the visitor list reverted to the Usual Suspects: a seamless transition from one set of political overlords to the next that the chateau owners rode without difficulty.

    But there are counter-examples as well. Consider the family estate of famed architect I.M. Pei in Suzhou, China. I visited the impressive Pei residence, which is now a government-owned property open to the public. The Pei family was wealthy enough to be comfortably in the top tier of Chinese society. Life was good for China’s elite, right up to 1949. These elites did not glide though the revolution intact; their wealth was confiscated.

    They were replaced with a new elite, who now holds vast troves of wealth secreted away in the West, and just as I.M. Pei attended prestigious American Ivy League universities, so too do the sons and daughters of China’s party elites, under assumed names, of course, to allow them a private experience outside the limelight.

    So the super-wealthy don’t always skate through tumultuous times, emerging richer than ever. We all understand how vast wealth inequality influences the political and social responses to crises. What is less well understood is the role of fairness in the social and political realms: if the inequality is understood to be the result of extremes of unfairness, the public mood darkens considerably, as humans are innately sensitive to unfairness.

    The porousness of the border between the wealthy and the poor matters greatly in assessing fairness. If the financial-social membrane between the two classes is relatively porous, enabling the most ambitious and brightest of the poor to enter the ranks of the wealthy (or the ranks of the the top 10% who serve them), then the society maintains a minimum level of fairness that alleviates the pressure to overthrow the regime.

    The remedial actions of the state also matter greatly. If the government acts decisively to raise estate taxes, taxes on unearned (i.e. rentier) income and on the higher reaches of earned income, and devotes some minimal attention to the basic needs of the bottom 90%, these policies also alleviate the pressure to overthrow the regime.

    The book The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century addresses these dynamics in admirable detail.

    In other words, extremes of wealth/power inequality set the stage, but the closing act is decided by our responses to soaring inequality. If the response is PR artifice, i.e. the rich keep getting richer as the suffering of the bottom 90% increases, regime change starts looking like the only solution available.

    If, on the other hand, policy makers and the public push back against the dominance of the super-wealthy, then the status quo can avoid fragmentation and dissolution.

    The super-wealthy play a key role in this choice of response, and this fragments the elites into warring camps, a dynamic I’ve addressed many times over the years, including in my chart of some of the overlapping crises that will demand more than duct-tape responses:

    The backdrop is the policies that have handed the super-wealthy immense gains in wealth and power via policy-driven asset appreciation and the gradual diminishment of the purchasing power of wages. Over the past 45 years, the value of earnings has declined $149 trillion to the benefit of unearned gains reaped by the already-wealthy:

    This chart shows how wealth inequality has risen from the late 1970s, and how it was rocket-boosted by the Federal Reserve’s “wealth effect” policies of quantitative easing (QE):

    The bottom 80% own a mere fraction of the wealth owned by the top 1% and top 10%

    While the wealthy cling to the self-serving narcissistic view that since we’re doing fine, everyone’s doing fine, the reality is the bottom 80% are awakening to the reality that they’re not doing fine, a divide that will only widen as recession tightens its grip on the throats of the bottom 80%:

    This is the vision of the “our wealth is rightly all ours” camp of the super-wealthy: the rest of us will own nothing and we’ll be gloriously happy. Uh, sure. Since we’re so happy, why don’t we switch places?

    The less self-congratulatory camp of the super-wealthy understand the pressure cooker of inequality and unfairness is going to blow unless they relinquish some of their unearned gains generated by Fed policies. While they naturally intend on keeping the vast majority of their gains, they realize the dividends of limitless greed might just be the overthrow of the regime they control to serve their own interests.

    The rest of us play a part, too, of course, and our choice boils down to this: “And you want me to join this?”

    The super-wealthy have a problem: if they refuse to release the pressure building in a grossly unfair, rigged system that’s enriched them beyond measure, then the pendulum may swing to the other extreme and they’ll be visiting their former estates as tourists in a few years.

    But if they agree to relinquish some part of their gains, they fear the tides of history may erode their sand castles. Aiya, what a dilemma.

    *  *  *

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 11:40

  • Disney Fights 'Wrongful Death' Lawsuit Claiming Plaintiff Waived Rights When He Signed Up For A Disney+ Trial
    Disney Fights ‘Wrongful Death’ Lawsuit Claiming Plaintiff Waived Rights When He Signed Up For A Disney+ Trial

    This might be the most stone cold lawyer trick we’ve seen in a while and remember: we deal with the financial world on a daily basis, so that’s saying something.

    Disney is fighting a wrongful death lawsuit by claiming the complainant agreed to arbitration when he signed up for a one month trial of Disney+ streaming services, according to the Hollywood Reporter.

    The suit was brought by Jeffrey Piccolo, the husband of Kanokporn Tangsuan, a 42 year old doctor who allegedly had a “fatal allergic reaction” to food at an Irish Pub in Disney Springs last October. 

    In a motion to the court, Disney’s lawyers argued that he had “agreed to settle any lawsuits against Disney out of court through the arbitration process when he signed up for a one-month trial of Disney+ in 2019”.

    They wrote: “The Terms of Use, which were provided with the Subscriber Agreement, include a binding arbitration clause.”

    The motion continued: “The first page of the Subscriber Agreement states, in all capital letters, that ‘any dispute between You and Us, Except for Small Claims, is subject to a class action waiver and must be resolved by individual binding arbitration’.”

    Disney points out that Piccolo also agreed to arbitration when he signed up on their website and app before visiting the theme park.

    The report says Piccolo’s attorney fired back: “The notion that terms agreed to by a consumer when creating a Disney+ free trial account would forever bar that consumer’s right to a jury trial in any dispute with any Disney affiliate or subsidiary, is so outrageously unreasonable and unfair as to shock the judicial conscience, and this court should not enforce such an agreement.”

    Disney commented that its “deeply saddened” by the suit and said: “We are merely defending ourselves against the plaintiff’s attorney’s attempt to include us in their lawsuit against the restaurant.”

    Disney argued in its May 31 filing that whether Piccolo reviewed the service terms is irrelevant, noting the arbitration provision covers “all disputes,” including those involving Disney or its affiliates.

    The Reporter notes that Raglan Road, the Irish pub at Disney Springs where Tangsuan dined, didn’t respond to requests for comment.

    Piccolo’s February lawsuit claims that despite repeated warnings about Tangsuan’s severe nut and dairy allergies, the restaurant served her food that was not properly flagged as allergen-free. Tangsuan later died from anaphylaxis, with a medical examiner confirming the presence of dairy and nuts in her system.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 08/18/2024 – 11:05

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