May 19

Today’s News 19th May 2022

  • European Auto Sales Plunge 20% In April, Extending 10 Month Losing Streak
    European Auto Sales Plunge 20% In April, Extending 10 Month Losing Streak

    In an ominous sign for the auto industry overseas, new vehicle sales in Europe shrank by 20% – falling for the 10th month in a row – according to a Wednesday morning Bloomberg wrap up. 

    Registrations for April fell 20% to 830,447 vehicles, the report noted. The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association noted that it was the steepest decline this year. Year to date, the Stoxx 600 Automobiles and Parts Index is down 16%.

    Stellantis suffered the worst in April, with a 31% drop. Names like Mercedes-Benz Group, BMW, Volkswagen, Renault and Volvo will also be on watch heading into the back end of this week. 

    The cause of the slumping sales continues to be supply chain woes, though a strapped consumer in a rising rate environment may also likely contribute to tightening going forward.

    The losing streak continues months after Goldman had opined that European automakers had already priced in a “stressed” scenario. The Stoxx 600 Auto and Parts Index was around the same level back in March and appears to be consolidating since then.

    The bank had predicted that energy inflation wouldn’t have a “material impact” on COGS and that impacts of energy prices were “low at this point”. The bank still cut its EBIT estimates by 2%/4% and 14%/11% on average for 2022/23 for carmakers. 

    Despite cuts, the bank said back in March that auto names like BMW and Stellantis “do not look expensive even under our stress scenario”. In March, we also highlighted when Volkswagen’s CEO said that the Ukrainian war could be worse for European autos than Covid was:

    “The interruption to global supply chains could lead to huge price increases, scarcity of energy and inflation,” Herbert Diess, chief executive of the German carmaker, told the Financial Times.

    “It could be very risky for the European and German economies.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/19/2022 – 02:45

  • Major NATO War Games Set To Begin Miles From Russian Base
    Major NATO War Games Set To Begin Miles From Russian Base

    Authored by Kyle Anzalone & Will Porter via The Libertarian Institute,

    The North Atlantic Treaty Organization will soon conduct large-scale exercises in the Baltics, with thousands of troops from more than a dozen nations set to take part in war games just 40 miles from the nearest Russian military base.

    Dubbed “Hedgehog,” the drills will kick off later this week in Estonia and run until June 3, meant to simulate a Russian invasion. They will involve 15,000 troops from 14 countries – including the United States, Britain, Denmark, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Norway, as well as non-NATO members Ukraine, Georgia, Sweden and Finland. 

    File image: US Marine Corps

    According to Major General Veiko-Vello Palm, deputy commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, the exercise will take place just 40 miles from a Russian military base, a facility hosting Moscow’s 76th Guards Air Assault Division in the border city of Pskov. 

    The size of the war games – among the largest in the Baltics since the fall of the USSR – their proximity to the Russian border, and the inclusion of non-NATO states are likely to escalate tensions with Moscow. Though the exercises were planned before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, they will no doubt serve as an additional show of force as NATO members flood the Ukrainian battlefield with billions of dollars in weapons and gear.

    The drills come as US lawmakers move ahead on a massive $40 billion aid package for Kiev, around half of which will be devoted to arms shipments. That bill follows more than $14 billion in aid already delivered or authorized by the US government.

    The Hedgehog exercise will also overlap with two major NATO and allied military drills currently being held in the region, “Defender Europe” and “Swift Response,” which together involve around 18,000 soldiers from 20 countries. A flurry of additional war games are planned for Germany, Finland, Poland and elsewhere in the coming months.

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    Major General Palm noted that Hedgehog would include more participants than originally planned due to the war in Ukraine, though declined to go into specifics about how many Ukrainian and Georgian troops would take part. “I would like not to go into details, but we are talking about a few people, not tens or hundreds of people,” he said.

    It’s unclear if Finland or Sweden were initially meant to participate in the latest drills, but both countries recently applied for membership in the NATO bloc, citing security concerns stemming from Moscow’s attack on its neighbor.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/19/2022 – 02:00

  • Get Ready To Be Muzzled: The Coming War On So-Called 'Hate Speech'
    Get Ready To Be Muzzled: The Coming War On So-Called ‘Hate Speech’

    Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “Whoever would overthrow the liberty of a nation must begin by subduing the freedom of speech.”

    – Benjamin Franklin

    Beware of those who want to monitor, muzzle, catalogue and censor speech.

    Especially be on your guard when the reasons given for limiting your freedoms end up expanding the government’s powers.

    In the wake of a mass shooting in Buffalo, NY, carried out by an 18-year-old gunman in military gear allegedly motivated by fears that the white race is in danger of being replaced, there have been renewed calls for social media monitoring, censorship of flagged content that could be construed as dangerous or hateful, and limitations on free speech activities, particularly online.

    As expected, those who want safety at all costs will clamor for more gun control measures (if not at an outright ban on weapons for non-military, non-police personnel), widespread mental health screening of the general population and greater scrutiny of military veterans, more threat assessments and behavioral sensing warnings, more surveillance cameras with facial recognition capabilities, more “See Something, Say Something” programs aimed at turning Americans into snitches and spies, more metal detectors and whole-body imaging devices at soft targets, more roaming squads of militarized police empowered to do random bag searches, more fusion centers to centralize and disseminate information to law enforcement agencies, and more surveillance of what Americans say and do, where they go, what they buy and how they spend their time.

    All of these measures play into the government’s hands.

    As we have learned the hard way, the phantom promise of safety in exchange for restricted or regulated liberty is a false, misguided doctrine that serves only to give the government greater authority to crack down, lock down, and institute even more totalitarian policies for the so-called sake of national security without many objections from the citizenry.

    Add the Department of Homeland Security’s “Disinformation Governance Board” to that mix, empower it to monitor online activity and police so-called “disinformation,” and you have the makings of a restructuring of reality straight out of Orwell’s 1984, where the Ministry of Truth polices speech and ensures that facts conform to whatever version of reality the government propagandists embrace.

    After all, it’s a slippery slope from censoring so-called illegitimate ideas to silencing truth.

    Eventually, as George Orwell predicted, telling the truth will become a revolutionary act.

    If the government can control speech, it can control thought and, in turn, it can control the minds of the citizenry.

    It’s been a long time since free speech was actually free.

    On paper—at least according to the U.S. Constitution—we are technically free to speak.

    In reality, however, we are only as free to speak as a government official—or corporate entities such as Facebook, Google or YouTube—may allow.

    That’s not a whole lot of freedom, especially if you’re inclined to voice opinions that may be construed as conspiratorial or dangerous.

    This steady, pervasive censorship creep clothed in tyrannical self-righteousness and inflicted on us by technological behemoths (both corporate and governmental) is technofascism, and it does not tolerate dissent.

    These internet censors are not acting in our best interests to protect us from dangerous, disinformation campaigns. They’re laying the groundwork now to preempt any “dangerous” ideas that might challenge the power elite’s stranglehold over our lives.

    The internet, hailed as a super-information highway, is increasingly becoming the police state’s secret weapon. This “policing of the mind” is exactly the danger author Jim Keith warned about when he predicted that “information and communication sources are gradually being linked together into a single computerized network, providing an opportunity for unheralded control of what will be broadcast, what will be said, and ultimately what will be thought.”

    What we are witnessing is the modern-day equivalent of book burning which involves doing away with dangerous ideas—legitimate or not—and the people who espouse them.

    Where we stand now is at the juncture of OldSpeak (where words have meanings, and ideas can be dangerous) and Newspeak (where only that which is “safe” and “accepted” by the majority is permitted). The power elite has made their intentions clear: they will pursue and prosecute any and all words, thoughts and expressions that challenge their authority.

    Having been reduced to a cowering citizenry—mute in the face of elected officials who refuse to represent us, helpless in the face of police brutality, powerless in the face of militarized tactics and technology that treat us like enemy combatants on a battlefield, and naked in the face of government surveillance that sees and hears all—we have nowhere left to go and nothing left to say that cannot be misconstrued and used to muzzle us.

    Yet what a lot of people fail to understand, however, is that it’s not just what you say or do that is being monitored, but how you think that is being tracked and targeted.

    We’ve already seen this play out on the state and federal level with hate crime legislation that cracks down on so-called “hateful” thoughts and expression, encourages self-censoring and reduces free debate on various subject matter. 

    With every passing day, we’re being moved further down the road towards a totalitarian society characterized by government censorship, violence, corruption, hypocrisy and intolerance, all packaged for our supposed benefit in the Orwellian doublespeak of national security, tolerance and so-called “government speech.”

    Little by little, Americans have been conditioned to accept routine incursions on their freedoms.

    This is how oppression becomes systemic, what is referred to as creeping normality, or a death by a thousand cuts.

    It’s a concept invoked by Pulitzer Prize-winning scientist Jared Diamond to describe how major changes, if implemented slowly in small stages over time, can be accepted as normal without the shock and resistance that might greet a sudden upheaval.

    Diamond’s concerns related to Easter Island’s now-vanished civilization and the societal decline and environmental degradation that contributed to it, but it’s a powerful analogy for the steady erosion of our freedoms and decline of our country right under our noses.

    As Diamond explains, “In just a few centuries, the people of Easter Island wiped out their forest, drove their plants and animals to extinction, and saw their complex society spiral into chaos and cannibalism… Why didn’t they look around, realize what they were doing, and stop before it was too late? What were they thinking when they cut down the last palm tree?”

    His answer: “I suspect that the disaster happened not with a bang but with a whimper.”

    Much like America’s own colonists, Easter Island’s early colonists discovered a new world—“a pristine paradise”—teeming with life. Yet almost 2000 years after its first settlers arrived, Easter Island was reduced to a barren graveyard by a populace so focused on their immediate needs that they failed to preserve paradise for future generations.

    The same could be said of the America today: it, too, is being reduced to a barren graveyard by a populace so focused on their immediate needs that they are failing to preserve freedom for future generations.

    In Easter Island’s case, as Diamond speculates:

    “The forest…vanished slowly, over decades. Perhaps war interrupted the moving teams; perhaps by the time the carvers had finished their work, the last rope snapped. In the meantime, any islander who tried to warn about the dangers of progressive deforestation would have been overridden by vested interests of carvers, bureaucrats, and chiefs, whose jobs depended on continued deforestation… The changes in forest cover from year to year would have been hard to detect… Only older people, recollecting their childhoods decades earlier, could have recognized a difference. Gradually trees became fewer, smaller, and less important. By the time the last fruit-bearing adult palm tree was cut, palms had long since ceased to be of economic significance. That left only smaller and smaller palm saplings to clear each year, along with other bushes and treelets. No one would have noticed the felling of the last small palm.”

    Sound painfully familiar yet?

    We’ve already torn down the rich forest of liberties established by our founders. It has vanished slowly, over the decades. Those who warned against the dangers posed by too many laws, invasive surveillance, militarized police, SWAT team raids and the like have been silenced and ignored. They stopped teaching about freedom in the schools. Few Americans know their history. And even fewer seem to care that their fellow Americans are being jailed, muzzled, shot, tasered, and treated as if they have no rights at all.

    The erosion of our freedoms happened so incrementally, no one seemed to notice. Only the older generations, remembering what true freedom was like, recognized the difference. Gradually, the freedoms enjoyed by the citizenry became fewer, smaller and less important. By the time the last freedom falls, no one will know the difference.

    This is how tyranny rises and freedom falls: with a thousand cuts, each one justified or ignored or shrugged over as inconsequential enough by itself to bother, but they add up.

    Each cut, each attempt to undermine our freedoms, each loss of some critical right—to think freely, to assemble, to speak without fear of being shamed or censored, to raise our children as we see fit, to worship or not worship as our conscience dictates, to eat what we want and love who we want, to live as we want—they add up to an immeasurable failure on the part of each and every one of us to stop the descent down that slippery slope.

    We are on that downward slope now.

    The contagion of fear that has been spread with the help of government agencies, corporations and the power elite is poisoning the well, whitewashing our history, turning citizen against citizen, and stripping us of our rights.

    America is approaching another reckoning right now, one that will pit our commitment to freedom principles against a level of fear-mongering that is being used to wreak havoc on everything in its path.

    Yet as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, while we squabble over which side is winning this losing battle, a tsunami approaches.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 05/19/2022 – 00:05

  • These Companies Had The Most Patents Granted In 2021
    These Companies Had The Most Patents Granted In 2021

    Companies around the world invest billions in R&D to provide cutting-edge innovation to their products and services. In order to protect these investments, companies apply for patents. Therefore, as Visual Capitalist’s Raul Amoros explains below, the number of utility patents a company is granted can be considered a rough measure of its level of innovation.

    Every year, the Patent 300 List identifies America’s most innovative companies within the intellectual property space by analyzing the patents granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO).

    In 2021, the USPTO granted a total of 327,798 utility patents, down 7% from the previous year. Let’s take a look at which companies generated the most patents in 2021.

    For 29 consecutive years, IBM has led U.S. companies in the number of patents received annually.

    In 2021, the company received 8,540 patents, a 9% decline from the previous year.

    IBM’s innovations are focused on solving major global challenges, and cover areas such as sustainable growth, climate change, and preventing future pandemics, as well as initiatives enabling food and energy security. They aim to address these problems through a blend of high-performance computing, artificial intelligence (AI), and quantum computing.

    One of IBM’s most noteworthy innovations in 2021 was their new quantum processor called Eagle, which broke the 100-qubit barrier to bring quantum computing into a new era. This processor has the ability to solve problems that classical computers can’t, giving it the potential to bring real-world benefits to different fields from renewable energy to finance and more.

    Samsung: A Close Second Innovator

    Samsung Electronics is one of the biggest innovators over the last decade. In 2021, the company got 8,517 patents granted by the USPTO, a close second to IBM.

    The company’s patent-winning innovations take place in several areas, including virtual and augmented reality (VR/AR), artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML), 5G technologies, and autonomous driving.

    The Technology Sector Dominates Utility Patents

    Unsurprisingly, out of the top 25 companies with the most patents granted in 2021, 16 of them belong to the technology sector.

    However, utility patents are not only limited to tech companies.

    In fact, companies from all sectors apply for patents every year. Patents are great assets for companies since they give them exclusive commercial rights for their inventions and protect them from competition. This is one of the main reasons we see companies getting thousands of new patents every year.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/18/2022 – 23:45

  • Missouri Bill Prevents Doctors Being Disciplined If They Prescribe Ivermectin Or Hydroxychloroquine
    Missouri Bill Prevents Doctors Being Disciplined If They Prescribe Ivermectin Or Hydroxychloroquine

    Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Missouri lawmakers passed legislation that prevents state licensing boards from disciplining doctors who prescribe ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine.

    Missouri Gov. Mike Parson signs a bill in Jefferson City, Mo., on May 24, 2019. (Summer Balentine/AP Photo)

    Sponsored by Rep. Brenda Kay Shields (R-Mo.), HB 2149 also bars pharmacists from questioning doctors or disputing patients regarding the usage of such drugs and their efficacy.

    With a convincing 130–4 vote in the House, HB 2149 passed both chambers on May 12 and currently heads to the office of Gov. Mike Parson to be potentially signed into law.

    “The board shall not deny, revoke, or suspend, or otherwise take any disciplinary action against, a certificate of registration or authority, permit, or license required by this chapter for any person due to the lawful dispensing, distributing, or selling of ivermectin tablets or hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets for human use in accordance with prescriber directions,” reads the draft of the bill (pdf).

    It adds, “A pharmacist shall not contact the prescribing physician or the patient to dispute the efficacy of ivermectin tablets or hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets for human use unless the physician or patient inquires of the pharmacist about the efficacy of ivermectin tablets or hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets.”

    Critics of the bill have noted that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has not given approval for usage of the drugs. Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine have been divisive drugs and politically polarized throughout the pandemic.

    “But, nevertheless, the Missouri legislature has chosen to ‘own the libs’ by issuing a gag order against every pharmacist in this state from offering their medical opinion on taking either one of those medications—even if it could kill their patient,” wrote former Democratic nominee Lindsey Simmons in a May 12 Twitter post.

    Although 22 countries across the world have approved the use of ivermectin in treating COVID-19, the FDA maintains that the current data show the drug to be ineffective. Large doses can be dangerous, it says.

    A recent study published in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases analyzed a national federated database of adults that compared ivermectin with the FDA-approved COVID-19 medication, remdesivir.

    “After using propensity score matching and adjusting for potential confounders, ivermectin was associated with reduced mortality vs remdesivir,” researchers wrote. “To our knowledge, this is the largest association study of patients with COVID-19, mortality, and ivermectin.”

    According to The Associated Press, Missouri state Rep. Patty Lewis, a Democrat, agreed to the bill to satisfy a group of conservatives in the Senate. She added that the bill will not change anything significantly as medical boards do not engage in punishing doctors who prescribe drugs legally.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/18/2022 – 23:25

  • Is The Housing Crash Starting?
    Is The Housing Crash Starting?

    Last week, we shared extensive empirical evidence that the US housing market is starting to crack when we quoted regional managers from John Burns Real Estate Consulting, all of whom agreed on one (or more) of three things: i) Demand is slowing, namely entry-level due to payment shock; ii) Investors are pulling back; and iii) Ripple effect of rising rates starting to hit move-up market. Here are some excerpts:

    • Dallas builder: “Interest lists are shrinking or buyers are truly pausing.”

    • Houston builder: “Many first-time buyers simply no longer qualify with the increase in interest rates, as their debt-to-income ratio gets out of whack.”

    • San Antonio builder: “Traffic has been cut in half since the hike in rates.”

    • Raleigh builder: “Investor activity has slowed dramatically.”

    • Provo builder: “Investors are evaluating the investment more critically than in the past.”

    • Washington DC builder: “Traffic half what it was in March. Worried about first time buyers. Many fewer REAL buyers than number of people collected on interest list last 6 months. Certainly more attempts [from buyers] to negotiate.”

    • Seattle builder: “Pause by a large population of buyers. To achieve our desired [sales] pace, we had to make price adjustments. Rates starting to knock people out of qualification.”

    Needless to say, a housing crash would be a bad thing for the US economy for which the housing sector is of paramount importance: a house is usually the biggest asset in American’s savings, comprises a large chunk of the labor force, and is a large contributor to inflation indices. That’s precisely why the Fed, hell bent on tipping the US economy into a recession as fast as possible to reverse inflation, would want nothing more than a housing recession.

    But what if Powell instead gets a housing crash on par with 2007?

    If that’s what is coming, we may be able to sniff it out soon in this big week for housing data in a US housing market which has been, until now, red hot. As DB’s Jim Reid writes, today’s data showed that building remains strong, with houses under construction hitting an all time high, even if pending home sales tumbled as did mortgage applications.

    Tomorrow it gets even more interesting: on Thursday morning we get a look at how new home construction translates to sales, which, given the precipitous climb in mortgage rates, could start facing some demand destruction. Which brings us to today’s Chart of the Day from Reid, which shows that mortgage rates have taken off with the Fed’s pivot, and the post-Covid boom in existing home sales has started to wobble. Meanwhile, consensus expectations marked by the X show they will decline further tomorrow.

    If the chart is correct, Reid warns that “it will be a very painful few months ahead” (for homeowners, not so much for investors as the stock market will sniff out the coming recession and soar, as it frontruns the Fed’s next easing).

    Of course, the bulls will still point to the strong fundamentals which underly housing: like other sectors, there is a big supply versus demand imbalance as inventories available for sale are still near historic lows, labor in the construction sector is constrained with immigration down, and millennials are aging into their peak earning and home-buying years. All while consumer balance sheets are strong.

    So, as Reid concludes rhetorically, will the Fed need to lift rates such that mortgages are far above levels most home buyers have grown accustomed to, ultimately slowing blistering price growth? Or will the cracks appear much sooner (spoiler alert: yes).

    One thing is certain: Housing, and its fate, will serve as the earliest guide to the Fed, rates and the US economy.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/18/2022 – 23:05

  • Day 2 Rundown Of The Michael Sussmann Trial
    Day 2 Rundown Of The Michael Sussmann Trial

    Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

    Day 2 of the Michael Sussmann trial started with some housekeeping. Here are the rulings of note:

    1. Robby Mook, who has a scheduled vacation in Spain, will testify on Friday. He’s a defense witness.

    2. Evidence of Steele’s meetings with Sussmann and Fusion GPS in July 2016, and his tasking to conduct research on Alfa Bank, according to the judge, “can come in.” The judge observed they are “relevant to Mr. Sussmann’s activities for the campaign and his attorney-client relationship, as far as it went, with the campaign as it relates to Alfa-Bank.”

    Onto the witnesses. We start with the short testimony of Deborah Fine.

    Fine began working for the Hillary Clinton Campaign (aka Hillary for America) as “one of several deputy general counsels” in May 2016. She answered to Marc Elias, the campaign’s general counsel.

    After being presented with calendar entries confirming her daily calls with Fusion GPS, she testified that she worked with them as “part of my work for the campaign.” In fact, she regularly interacted with Glenn Simpson and co-founder Peter Fritsch. Fine conceded that Fusion GPS were seemingly free to conduct research on their own, stating she “personally didn’t direct them” to accomplish specific tasks.

    On cross, she admitted she didn’t now if Marc Elias spoke to anyone else at the Clinton Campaign about the activities of Fusion GPS. She was out of the loop regarding efforts to bring the Alfa Bank allegations to the NY Times or to the FBI.

    Testimony of Laura Seago

    Laura Seago worked with Fusion GPS back in 2016, where she reported directly to Fritsch and Simpson. She has been granted immunity by the Special Counsel for her testimony. She understood Marc Elias to be the Fusion GPS contact for the Clinton Campaign.

    Seago stated she was present at a summer 2016 meeting with “Mr. Elias, my colleague Peter Fritsch from Fusion GPS, Mr. Sussmann, and Mr. Sussmann’s client Rodney Joffe.” As to the nature of that meeting:

    “The general purpose, to the best of my recollection, was to discuss allegations of communications between the Trump organization and Alfa-Bank.”

    Once the Alfa Bank allegations were developed, Seago met with journalist Franklin Foer (who would write the October 31, 2016 Alfa Bank article in Slate). The purpose of that meeting was to discuss “the allegations of communication between the Trump Organization and Alfa-Bank.”

    They sold Foer on the Alfa Bank data at that meeting, telling him there were “highly credible computer scientists who seemed to think that these allegations were credible.” These “credible computer scientists” would ultimately be cited in Foer’s article. She admitted that Fusion GPS did nothing to validate the DNS records – something she said was “beyond my capabilities.”

    Seago was walked-through a number of e-mails she had with Joffe and other members of Fusion GPS. Some of these were privileged (the Joffe e-mails) so the Special Counsel was unable to discuss with Seago the contents. However, she did know about contents of the Joffe e-mails generally:

    Finally, she admitted to understanding whose interests were served by planting the Alfa Bank story.

    Now we get to Marc Elias.

    Elias meet weekly with Fusion GPS at his office. Typically Peter Fritsch and Glenn Simpson would be in attendance. Generally, those meetings involved discussions of Elias’s “needs” and Fusion GPS’s “work” – which included what Elias described as the “unusual connections” the Trump Campaign had with Russia. They would also report to Elias on their findings related to Trump during the election.

    Notably, Elias mentioned Jake Sullivan as someone at the Clinton Campaign who knew about the Trump/Russia research (though there is uncertainty as to whether Sullivan knew about Fusion’s activities). Elias would give the campaign these updates.

    A brief aside: Jake Sullivan’s wife is Margaret Goodlander – who serves as counsel to Attorney General Merrick Garland. We understand that she has not recused herself from anything having to do with the Special Counsel’s investigation. We further understand that Goodlander is keeping close tabs on Durham’s investigation. We’ll report on that down the road…

    Anyway, Elias also testified that the Clinton Campaign paid them (Perkins Coie) a “flat fee” for their legal services. Why is this important? Because it explains why Sussmann would block bill the Clinton Campaign (see tweet below). (“Block billing” is having a multi-hour entry with a generalized description. Example: “6.5 hours on confidential project.) For flat fee work, attorneys are generally allowed block billing because the client isn’t paying the hourly rate.

    The Special Counsel then walked Elias through a number of billing entries/emails from and involving Sussmann. These included meetings with Elias, meetings with Joffe, and Fusion – and involved “the Alfa-Bank allegations.”

    That concludes the morning session. We’ll update this post once we receive the afternoon transcript…

     

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    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/18/2022 – 22:45

  • Will The Buffalo Shooting Thaw Biden's Frozen Gun Control Agenda?
    Will The Buffalo Shooting Thaw Biden’s Frozen Gun Control Agenda?

    “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” 

    In the aftermath of the shooting in Buffalo, New York, politicians both local and nationwide are heeding Winston Churchill’s infamous words and have renewed calls for gun control legislation and more.

    We’re already starting to see the wheels turning in Washington, spurred by the tragic mass shooting event.

    First, as reported by Politico, Biden has renewed his push for Steve Dettelbach to head the ATF in the wake of the Buffalo shooting to get Dettelbach through his rocky confirmation process – which could start right before the Senate leaves for recess on May 27.

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    The ATF has not had a permanent director since 2015, and the last Biden nominee, David Chipman had to withdraw his nomination because of opposition from moderate Democrats and Independents. While Dettelbach is a much different nominee than Chipman on the surface, he still faces an uphill battle to confirmation.

    The Biden administration had already highlighted Dettelbach’s role in fighting hate crimes from his initial nomination, but after the Buffalo shooting seemingly. 

    Biden, who stopped in Buffalo to meet with victims’ families, renewed his calls for gun control, including an assault weapon ban. He also spoke to the fact that during the shooting, armed security for the supermarket engaged the shooter with a handgun. The shots from the security guard’s pistol hit the body armor of the shooter and did not penetrate him.

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    In 2019, H.R. 4568, also known as the Responsible Body Armor Possession Act, was introduced but did not become law. Will we see calls to renew this legislation in the coming weeks?

    While the Biden admin has had to resort to “Regulatory Authority” to pass new gun regulations, this shooting in New York may provide the momentum to pass new gun control through the legislature, or to confirm Steve Dettelbach as ATF director.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/18/2022 – 22:25

  • California Church Shooting Suspect Had Ties To CCP Nationalist Front Group
    California Church Shooting Suspect Had Ties To CCP Nationalist Front Group

    Authored by Mary Hong via The Epoch Times,

    The man charged with killing one person and injuring five others after a Taiwanese service at Geneva Presbyterian Church in Laguna Woods, California, was once a member of a U.S.-based group controlled by the Chinese Communist Party.

    Shooting suspect David Chou on May 16, 2022. (Orange County Sheriff’s Department via AP)

    The Orange County Sheriff’s Department said the shooting by the alleged gunman, 68-year-old David Wenwei Chou of Las Vegas, was “a politically motivated hate incident.” Sheriff Don Barnes said the suspect “was upset about political tensions between China and Taiwan.”

    Barnes also indicated that the suspect, who wasn’t a regular attendee and had no known ties or affiliation with the church, secured the doors within the church with chains and tried to disable the locks with superglue before he opened fire.

    Chou has been charged with one felony count of murder and five felony counts of attempted murder, according to the sheriff’s department. Dr. John Cheng, a 52-year-old family practice physician, was killed when he charged the gunman in an attempt to disarm him.

    Ties to the CCP’s United Front

    Chou, a native of Taiwan, has close ties to the China Council for the Promotion of Peaceful National Reunification (CCPPNR), an entity under Beijing’s United Front Work Department (UFWD), a powerful Chinese Communist Party (CCP) agency charged with overseeing foreign influence operations.

    On April 2, 2019, the CCPPNR established a Las Vegas chapter, with Chou as one of the directors.

    He made a presentation with a banner calling for the “eradication of pro-independence demons” on that day, Radio Free Asia reported.

    The CCPPNR was founded by the CCP in 1988. Its primary mission, as stated on its website, is countering separatist movements such as those calling for Taiwan’s independence. The CCP considers Taiwan to be part of its territory, even though the regime has never ruled the self-governed island.

    The CCPPNR has at least 200 chapters in 90 countries, including 33 U.S. chapters that are registered under somewhat different names, but carrying the same slogan of “peaceful reunification,” according to a 2018 report by the U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission (pdf).

    A 2018 Jamestown Foundation report also indicated that the CCPPNR has served to mobilize overseas Chinese communities in support of the CCP’s policies.

    The Chinese regime is using Confucius as a cover for infiltration and propaganda. (Frederic Brown/AFP/Getty Images)

    Then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a 2020 statement that the UFWD is the CCP organ “tasked with co-opting and neutralizing threats to the party’s rule and spreading its influence and propaganda overseas. The CCP regards this party apparatus as a ‘magic weapon’ to advance Beijing’s policies.”

    In October 2020, the United States designated the National Association for China’s Peaceful Unification, the U.S. branch of the CCPPNR, as a foreign mission.

    CCPPNR Las Vegas Chapter President Gu Yawen said that Chou left the local chapter in the second half of 2019. An old report containing a photo of Chou on the chapter’s founding day was no longer available on its website.

    When asked about the suspect’s political hatred associated with the political tensions between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan, CCP Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin defined the incident as an immigrant and domestic gun violence issue on U.S. soil.

    Condemnation

    Barnes said Cheng charged at the suspect and attempted to disarm him before he was fatally wounded, buying time for other witnesses to subdue the shooter.

    “Without the actions of Dr. Cheng, [there] is no doubt that there would be numerous additional victims in this crime,” he said.

    Taiwan’s official representative in Los Angeles, Louis M. Huang, condemned the act of hate and violence, expressed his condolences to the families of the victims, and said assistance to the victims’ families is already on the way.

    He told the Chinese edition of The Epoch Times that whether in Taiwan or abroad, most Taiwanese are compatible with each other and care about each other.

    “Respect each other, rule of law, is what’s shared in Taiwan,” Huang said.

    Many Taiwanese commentators also described the incident as the indiscriminate killing of Taiwanese civilians, a result of the ideological war of hate that the CCP has spread around the world.

    Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen also offered her sincere condolences on Cheng’s death and her hopes for a prompt recovery of those who were injured in the shooting.

    “Violence is never the answer,” she posted on Twitter.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/18/2022 – 22:05

  • $87.8 Million Bel Air Mansion Horribly Flops At Auction
    $87.8 Million Bel Air Mansion Horribly Flops At Auction

    Crashed crypto markets, plunging stocks and bonds, looming housing market meltdown, interest rate shock, and the threat of a recession have spooked speculators, including ones bidding on a massive Bel Air mansion that flopped at auction, according to CNBC. 

    The mood among ‘movers and shakers’ is sheer pessimism as financial markets are stuck in a doom loop of turmoil thanks to the Federal Reserve embarking on one of the most aggressive tightening cycles in decades, if not ever. 

    So the timing of dermatologist-turned-developer Alex Khadavi to auction off 777 Sarbonne Road, located in a residential neighborhood on the Westside of Los Angeles, was particularly bad. Though listing the modern mansion wasn’t his choice considering he filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection before listing the mansion last year. 

    Khadavi owes several creditors tens of millions of dollars. The mansion sat on the market for a year and was just auctioned off with Concierge Auctions. He was hoping for $87.8 million, though the highest bid came in just under $45.8 million, falling short of the $50 million reserve.

    The bankruptcy court will now decide if the highest bid is an acceptable offer and determine if the home sale will move forward in early June. The sale would help Khadavi satisfy his debt with creditors. 

    Despite controversy between Khadavi and the auctioneer for not starting the bid at the reserve, Concierge’s president, Chad Roffers, said:

    “After a spirited auction, the bidding is closed and the high bid is in the hands of the Trustee. With over 80 qualified showings in the last 60 days, we are confident market value was delivered.” 

    Co-listing agent, Aaron Kirman of Compass, said he wasn’t pleased with the highest bid, though, “at the end of the day, the highest bidder is the highest bidder.” It just so happens it’s a 50% haircut from the initial list price one year ago. 

    The auction results suggest a souring mood among wealthy elites generally viewed as smart money. Perhaps this is an example of the shifting tide in real estate markets and how a broader market cooling is just ahead. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/18/2022 – 21:45

  • "They Shut Us Down": Michigan Businesses Sue Whitmer For Losses Due To COVID Lockdowns
    “They Shut Us Down”: Michigan Businesses Sue Whitmer For Losses Due To COVID Lockdowns

    Authored by Steven Kovac via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A coalition of five bowling alleys and family entertainment centers is suing Michigan’s Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, for losses incurred due to her mandatory COVID-19 shutdowns in 2020.

    Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer listens to Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) in Clawson, Mich., on March 18, 2019. (Paul Sancya/AP)

    Michigan Dept. of Health and Human Services director Robert Gordon is also a defendant in the case.

    The plaintiffs allege that the shutdowns imposed by Whitmer and Gordon were a “taking” of their businesses without just compensation in violation of both the state and the U.S. Constitution.

    The case has been winding its way through the federal courts since January 2021.

    Fred Kautz runs the lane oiler at Kautz Shore Lanes in Lexington, Mich., on May 13, 2022. (Steven Kovac/The Epoch Times)

    The coalition lost the first round of the legal battle when the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Michigan ruled against it.

    Oral arguments were recently held before a three-judge panel of the US Court of Appeals Sixth Circuit.

    Plaintiff’s chief counsel David Kallman told The Epoch Times after the appeals court hearing, “The oral arguments from both sides were vigorous. The judges asked a lot of questions. It was the kind of proceeding that makes you proud to be a lawyer.

    “Even the defense acknowledges that we are presenting ‘novel’ arguments.

    “Michigan is the only state in the nation where a governor’s public health emergency powers were overturned as unconstitutional.

    “If we lose in the court of appeals, we will take this case to the U.S. Supreme Court.”

    Scott Bennett, executive director of the Independent Bowling and Entertainment Centers Association, told The Epoch Times,

    “The governor’s actions were devastating to our industry.

    “Things went from ‘two weeks to slow the spread’ to indefinite shutdowns.”

    Bennett said that the forced closures were not based on solid scientific proof that bowling alleys and family entertainment centers would spread the virus any more than the Walmart stores or the GM plants that were allowed to remain open.

    “They were allowed to operate with hundreds and even thousands of people in them but we had to shut down. We feel our industry was unfairly singled-out.

    “We cannot stand for a repeat of such arbitrary treatment and don’t want the people of Michigan to forget what was done to them.”

    With the recent uptick in COVID cases and the approaching mid-term elections, Bennett said his members that survived the 2020 shutdowns feel like it can happen all over again.

    “It’s like operating day-to-day with a hammer held over your head. The uncertainty is altering business plans. The value of our businesses is dropping through the floor,” Bennett said.

    Brian and Mindy Hill work the counter at their bowling alley in Imlay City, Mich. on May 13, 2022. (Steven Kovac/Epoch Times)

    Fred Kautz, the proprietor of Kautz’s Shore Lanes in Lexington, Michigan, started working in the family business when he was 13.

    The business has 12 bowling lanes, a bar, an arcade, a restaurant, and living quarters upstairs.

    “We’ve owned this place for 42 years. For me and my family, it’s more than a place to work. It’s a way of life. And it has become an institution in our community—a real gathering place,” said Kautz.

    He said he is still smarting from what happened after Whitmer’s executive actions were ruled unconstitutional by the Michigan Supreme Court in the fall of 2020.

    “We got a little reprieve. We thought we were in the clear until she came back with another round of forced closures, this time under the authority of the Michigan Department of Public Health.

    “The first 30 days knocked us right on our butts. But we were willing to cooperate, to do our part. We were all scared and we did not want to see harm come to anybody.

    “We lost a lot of money at the time. We are coming back slowly, but our overall revenue is still down 20 percent from pre-pandemic days. That’s hard to make up.

    “In the spring of 2020, I tried to do what was recommended and go along. Never again!

    “If my Dad was still alive, he’d have never closed at all,” said Kautz.

    Brian and Mindy Hill, owners of I.C. Strikes, a 16-lane bowling alley, bar, and snack bar in Imlay City said their business was hit hard by the shutdowns.

    Brian was the town barber for 25 years, before purchasing the bowling alley where he learned to bowl as a child.

    “We took over in December 2018. We’d saved up money to buy this place and make some upgrades. When COVID hit, we were forced to close down. It took all the money we saved for improvements just to survive,” said Brian.

    The Hills said they never thought they’d see the day when their own government could do something like that to them.

    Mary Bacon, assistant manager of Jump City, a family recreation center, cleans an arcade machine in Imlay City, Mich., on May 13, 2022. (Steven Kovac/The Epoch Times)

    “They shut us down. They took away our livelihood with no end date in sight. Then they wanted to loan us money. Think about that. They first put us in a situation where we had zero income to pay our previous debt. And then they wanted to loan us more money.

    “Lots of small business people lost their businesses but kept their debt. It ruined them,” said Brian.

    The Hills did apply for and receive a Small Business Administration loan at 3.25 percent interest for 30 years, and they participated in the Paycheck Protection Program which helped their business survive.

    Up the road from the Hill’s bowling alley is Jump City, a large indoor recreation center offering an array of bouncy houses and arcade games for children.

    Assistant manager Mary Bacon told The Epoch Times, “We lost a lot of business. We were forced to close for 15 months and had to make our payments with no income.”

    Bacon remembers the morning of March 16, 2020, when many area businesses were gearing up for big St. Patrick’s Day celebrations.

    “By afternoon everybody had to close. All that food went to waste.

    “The shutdown was supposed to be for a couple of weeks. Nobody foresaw it would drag on for a year and three months.

    “Oh, they said we could open again, but they so severely restricted the number of customers that we lost all of our big birthday parties. With so few kids allowed in, we couldn’t operate. We were losing too much money.”

    Bacon said people are coming back to the center but are still scared, even though the games and bouncy houses are continuously cleaned and sanitized.

    Navaeh Smalstig, 8, climbs out of a bouncy house at Jump City in Imlay City, Mich., on May 13, 2022. (Steven Kovac/The Epoch Times)

    Before the pandemic, Danny Brown owned a roller rink in Grand Blanc and Owasso, two south-central Michigan towns.

    “The lockdowns forced us to sell the Owasso rink for less than half of what we paid for it. We will be trying to make up our loss for years to come.”

    Brown, who is a plaintiff in the lawsuit, told The Epoch Times, “To keep going I had to decide to triple our debt. Since the shutdown, I am three-quarters of a million dollars deeper in debt.

    “Small businesses put everything on the line. All of our personal and family money. I am personally responsible for our debt. If I die my children will have to pay it.”

    Brown said Michigan’s government acted without a real understanding and regarded the state’s small businesses as “nonessential throwaways.”

    “One of the reasons we filed suit is to push the government to think differently,” he said.

    According to Brown, family entertainment centers like skating rinks, bowling alleys, arcades, pool halls, miniature golf, and go-cart tracks have been nearly wiped out.

    “A few years ago, there were 3,500 roller skating rinks in the United States. Now there are 700. There were five rinks in Genesee County, now there are two.” he said.

    Brown attributes the decrease to years of ongoing government mandates and interference that led up to the COVID-19 lockdowns.

    “They took, they stole our businesses!” he said.

    Donn Slimmen, another plaintiff in the case, owns Spartan West Bowling in the west Michigan resort town of Ludington.

    “The lockdown just about killed us. It was 14 to 15 months of agony. Our bank payments and utility bills didn’t stop. We went from being two to three months behind to more months behind.

    “We entered into survival mode. We ate a lot of pork and beans and hotdogs. We’re still trying to work ourselves out of the hole. By the end of this summer, we might be solvent again.

    “We were lucky to survive. We are still hanging on by threads,” said Slimmen.

    Along with 16 bowling lanes, Slimmen operates a full-service restaurant.

    “It’s never come back. Pre-pandemic, we’d serve 200 customers at an ordinary Friday fish fry. Now our best night is 100.

    “Our restaurant went from a thriving seated-guest business to a take-out operation grossing only two to three percent of the seated sales.

    “We were spending $400 to take in proceeds of $100.

    “The politicians and bureaucrats don’t understand. They never cleaned a toilet seat or climbed into a bowling machine to fix it,” said Slimmen.

    Slimmen blames Gov.Gretchen Whitmer for the plight of his community and the state.

    “You didn’t see Republican governors closing businesses. Their states did so much better.

    “Drive through downtown Ludington or Muskegon and look at all the boarded-up storefronts. So many places are out of business. Michigan is in terrible shape,” Slimmen said.

    The Tomassoni family has been in the bowling business for 84 years in the western Upper Peninsula town of Iron Mountain, Michigan.

    “We had to close bowling and our banquet facility a total of 161 days in two different periods of time in 2020. After the second shutdown, we could operate at 25 percent occupancy and only during restricted hours. No wedding receptions, no special events. It was a disaster.

    “It ripped my heart out. I am so bitter towards my government,” said owner Pete Tomassoni.

    Tomassoni’s business suffered further because of its proximity to Wisconsin which is only minutes away.

    “Wisconsin closed for just 30 days. For the most part, they were wide open. That really hurt us.

    “Our governor was picking and choosing which of our state’s businesses could operate. To force a business to close with no notice and without proven science is straight out wrong.

    “I think that she came down so hard on small business because we, by and large, lean to the right.

    “The state dangled the threat of yanking business licenses to keep people in line.

    “Some of our businesses tried to defy the state and stayed open

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/18/2022 – 21:25

  • US, Japan Prepare Statement Pledging To Jointly 'Deter' China Militarily
    US, Japan Prepare Statement Pledging To Jointly ‘Deter’ China Militarily

    Tensions between Beijing and Tokyo are about to ratchet further amid widespread reports that the United States and Japan have prepared a statement calling for both to “deter and respond to” China’s aggressive military activities in the Indo-Pacific region.

    The statement is expected to be released as President Joe Biden visits Tokyo to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida early next week. Biden will travel to South Korea and Japan from May 20 to May 24, the White House previously announced.

    File image: AP

    Crucially, according to Nikkei, “The statement to be released after their Monday meeting in Tokyo will also clarify America’s resolve to defend Japan if it is attacked, including with nuclear weapons.”

    The meeting will mark Biden’s first face-to-face meeting with the Japanese PM Kishida, coming at a crucial moment that the anti-China stance of both countries have steadily growing over recent years.

    When Biden last year met with then-Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, the two issue a joint statement calling for stability in the “Taiwan Strait” – which was viewed as a provocative term by China given it was the first joint US-Japan statement to invoke Taiwan in many decades.

    Next week’s Asia trip will include Biden rolling out his administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework – which is a plan to counter China economically.

    Anticipating the Tokyo meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Wednesday warned Japan, stressing that US-Japan cooperation must not “hurt China’s sovereignty, security and development interests” – as quoted in Bloomberg. “China hopes that Japan acts cautiously and learns a lesson from history,” the Chinese foreign ministry was cited further as saying.

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    Early this year the US administration pledged to help Japan’s fledgling military and coast guard defend the contested Senkanu Islands in the event of a Chinese attack. Biden at the time stressed that the islands are covered under Article V of the Japan-US Security Treaty, related to mutual defense.

    Japan has recently voiced that it wants to take its military from a purely defensive posture (which was stipulated under its post-WWII constitution), to one with the capability of being able to launch offensive operations.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/18/2022 – 21:05

  • "Big Lebowski Syndrome" – Why Haven't Californians Demanded Change?
    “Big Lebowski Syndrome” – Why Haven’t Californians Demanded Change?

    Authored by Michael Shellenberger via Substack,

    Over the last few weeks, a number of journalists and commentators have pushed back against my criticisms of Governor Gavin Newsom. Crime and homelessness have been increasing everywhere, they say, not just in California. Covid interrupted Newsom’s ambitious plans to address homelessness, they note. And California’s high cost of living long predated Newsom’s election in 2018.

    With all due respect to the people rushing to the governor’s defense, those claims are ridiculous. We Californians pay more for taxes than anyone else in America. We have a nearly $100 billion surplus. And yet we have the worst public services.

    Just take crime and homelessness. You can’t walk safely through many neighborhoods in our largest cities. Street addicts feel entitled to sleep, smoke meth, and terrorize passengers on mass transit and public parks. And despite spending more on homelessness and mental health, per capita, than any other state, homelessness increased 31% in California and declined 18% in the rest of the U.S., over the last ten years.

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    It’s not like Newsom was an outsider to politics before becoming governor. In truth, it’s been the statewide implementation of the homeless policies he pioneered in San Francisco 20 years ago that — by attracting addicts from across the U.S. with the offer of free housing, low-cost drugs, and the freedom to camp anywhere — worsened the problem.

    It’s true covid occupied a significant amount of Newsom’s time in 2020 and 2021, and that crime is rising nationwide. Newsom gave an excellent “State of the State” speech in January 2020, laying out a new agenda on homelessness.

    But rather than pursuing a new strategy on homelessness, Newsom doubled down on the same failed policies, and Newsom has done nothing of significance to increase policing, psychiatry, and probation, the “Three Key Ps” needed to prevent crime. Instead, he oversaw a reduction in the prison population from 127,000, when he took office, to 96,000, today, and intends to close two more prisons and release, wily-oily, another 76,000 prisoners.

    Newsom frequently boasts that California is a “nation-state” and that we are “leading the world.” In truth, Newsom is leading other progressive cities to make things worse not better, not just on crime and homelessness but also cost of living and quality of life issues, too.

    The massive taxpayer subsidies that resulted in California’s electricity prices rising seven times more than they did in the rest of the U.S.? Newsom is proposing more of them. The big, unconditional spending increases for public schools that coincided with a decline in student performance? Newsom wants more of them. The housing shortage he promised to solve? He’s only made it worse, and is proposing nothing new to address it.

    After I criticized Newsom of either playing a double game, or being incompetent, in claiming to support the building of a desalination plant, even as the Coastal Commission killed it, several people pointed out that Newsom only appoints four of the 12 commissioners.

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    But Newsom holds extraordinary powers over the eight Coastal Commissioners he does not appoint for the simple reason that they are appointed by the Senate Rules Committee, which is controlled by Democrats, and the Speaker of the Assembly, a close ally to Newsom. And the Coastal Commission voted unanimously to reject the proposed desalination plant, meaning, all four of Newsom’s own commissioners voted against it.

    The bottom line is that Newsom is the puppet of groups who oppose desalination not because of the environmental impacts — the Israelis have proven that there are very few — but rather because they want scarce water and energy because they view scarcity as a way to prevent more people from coming to California.

    Most of us believe that if we work hard and play by the rules, we should own our own home, send our children to good schools, and be able to retire in our sixties. And most of us believe that, if we are going to pay super-high taxes, we should be able to walk or ride safely through our cities without fear of being assaulted.

    Why, then, haven’t Californians demanded change?

    Big Lebowski Syndrome (BLS)

    “The Dude abides” — and that’s part of the problem

    Perhaps the main reason Californians have not changed our leaders is because nobody, until now, has offered an alternative to the status quo that is also aligned with our values. Many Californians last year supported the recall of Newsom as a way to shake up the system. But Republicans got behind Larry Elder, a charismatic radio show host who was viciously and wrongly smeared, but nonetheless could not articulate a humane and realistic plan to deal with the homeless crisis.

    Another reason Californians have not demanded change is because many of us are able to escape the chaos in the cities. I am one of those Californians. I live in the Berkeley Hills and, like everyone who lives on a hill, I can go about my days without ever coming across somebody screaming, psychotically, at invisible enemies, overdosing on drugs, or defecating on the sidewalk.

    Over the last two years, when I would tell my neighbors I was writing a book on the homeless crisis, several wrinkled their faces and whispered, “That’s why I don’t go downtown.” On Twitter, many people who claim to be progressive believe they have successfully debunked our documentation of human depravity in downtown San Francisco by posting selfies of themselves in front of Golden Gate Bridge, or atop Lombard Street, where there aren’t homeless encampments.

    But one of the biggest and least discussed reasons that Californians don’t demand change is what one might call “Big Lebowski Syndrome,” or BLS, for short. In the Coen Brother’s 1998 cult classic, the main character, Jeffrey Lebowski (played by Jeff Bridges), calls himself “the Dude” (“or, uh, His Dudeness, or uh, Duder, or El Duderino if you’re not into the whole brevity thing”). The Dude captures the liberal slacker energy of many Californians when it comes to homelessness. His signature catchphrase is, “The Dude abides.”

    When I would raise the issue of, say, people camping on sidewalks with my progressive friends in Berkeley, many would say the equivalent of, “Just take it easy, man,” another of the Dude’s aphorisms. When I raised a concern about a guy sleeping under a tarp on the sidewalk next to a children’s playground, a guy I play soccer with said, “Take it easy, Mike! He’s probably mentally ill!” When I pointed out that it was neither compassionate nor safe to let mentally ill people, or addicts, or both, to sleep on sidewalks, many progressives would just shake their heads. Take it easy, man.

    For a period while working on San Fransicko I despaired that there was nothing I could say that would cut through BLS. It finally dawned on me that I needed to explain to people the solution before complaining about the problem. This may seem counter-intuitive, and in some ways is. But the reality is that Californians already know there’s a homeless problem. They’re stuck on the solution. They don’t want to put mentally ill addicts in jail or prison — and rightly so. But they don’t know the alternative. And so we developed one: Cal-Psych.

    I tested it out on my progressive family and friends and it really worked. By the time my friend Leighton Woodhouse and I gathered signatures in Berkeley and Oakland in March, in order to qualify for the ballot, we had boiled down our agenda to a single sentence. The exchanges went like this:

    Me: [cheery] Hi! Are you a registered voter?

    Progressive-looking person: [suspiciously] I am.

    Me: Great! I’m running for governor and wanted to see if you would sign the petition so I can get on the ballot.

    Progressive: [curious but still suspicious] Why are you running?

    Me: [gubernatorially] I’m running to create a state-wide psychiatric and addiction care system to deal with the homeless crisis.

    Seven times out of ten that was enough for people to want to sign the petition. One out of ten would decline. And another two out of ten would ask a few more questions, usually something like this.

    Progressive: [hopeful but still a bit suspicious] That sounds good, but how do you prevent it from being bad?

    Me: You mean bad like “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest”?

    Progressive: [sounding relieved] Yeah! Like that!

    Me: Most people don’t need hospitals and just need rehab for 90 to 180 days. My aunt had schizophrenia and had good care in a group home. And even the hospitals are much better than they were in the 1950s.

    Having spent the last year explaining Cal-Psych in dozens of articles, podcasts, and TV appearances, hundreds of thousands if not millions of Californians and other Americans — including my progressive friends in Berkeley — have come to understand the basic argument behind the concept. San Francisco and Los Angeles are simply unable to treat the country’s addicts and mentally ill, alone. Lower-cost group homes can be found across the state, outside of the open drug scenes. And services can be more efficiently allocated through a single psychiatric and addiction care system than through the current 58 county model.

    Cal-Psych, in other words, is just the kind of agenda that even the Dude would abide.

    “This Aggression Will Not Stand, Man”

    Gina McDonald and Jacqui Berlinn are demanding that Gov. Gavin Newsom shut down California’s open drug scenes

    I’ve proselytized Cal-Psych enough that some on the Right now express concern that I’m going to be too soft on hardened criminals. I’ve thus integrated into my discussion of these issues that there are obviously some hard-core sociopathic violent criminals who need to be in prison and not just released, as Newsom is dead set upon doing.

    But the large majority of the people on the street need psychiatric care or drug rehab. The problem is that many California cities, including previously conservative ones like San Diego, have stopped enforcing laws against public camping, public drug use, and public defecation, and so we can’t easily separate out the really bad guys from people who are just addicts or mentally ill without enforcing basic laws.

    In my recent interview with Quillette, I explained that Californians needed to grow up. We not only need to take responsibility, and shut down the open drug scenes, we also need to trust that we can discern between hard core criminals who need prison and ordinary addicts who just need rehab. That’s not just about getting more compassionate. It’s also about getting angry.

    For our super-high taxes we not only deserve basic public safety, we also deserve nice things, like beautiful, livable, and walkable cities. Or, as the Dude would say, “This will not stand, ya know. This aggression will not stand, man.”

    The Californians who are most challenging the BLS are Jacqui Berlinn and Gina McDonald of Mothers Against Drug Deaths. They generated international publicity last month after putting up a billboard in Union Square in San Francisco and warning foreign tourists, particularly families, not to visit the city, given readily-available and deadly fentanyl that city officials allow to be sold and used freely. San Francisco’s mayor rebuffed the mothers and today the open drug scene, dominated by violent and heavily armed drug dealers, has spread to cover much of downtown.

    Undeterred, Berlinn and McDonald last week launched a new advertising campaign, this one in Sacramento and aimed at Newsom. “Welcome to Camp Fentanyl,” the headline reads, using the state’s iconic parks typeface and billboard style. “Open to kids everywhere.” The ad contains a demand: “Gavin Newsom: Shut Down Open Air Drug Markets Now.”

    The campaign generated an immediate impact. “I’m a parent,” said Newsom on Friday. “All of you are concerned about what’s happened with opioid overdose deaths, concerned about what’s happening with fentanyl in particular.” Newsom’s policy response was grossly inadequate: just $8 million (with an “m”) for the Attorney General to form a task force. If Newsom’s past task forces are any guide, this one will make the problem worse. But at least he acknowledged, for the first time, the problem.

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    None of it’s enough and it’s time for a change. As I noted yesterday, a growing number of Republicans are acknowledging that a Republican can’t be elected governor, but I can be. Since writing that column I picked up the endorsement of two influential center-Right Californians: David Sacks, a co-founder of PayPal and famous venture capitalist, and Scott Adams, the creator of the “Dilbert” cartoon and influential commentator. Sacks said I “would easily be the most substantive, solutions-oriented governor we’ve ever had” and Adams said I am an “Easy choice if you want solutions.”

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    Now it’s up to the electorate to change. We must start seeing things like public safety, good schools, and well-managed forests not as merely nice things but necessary ones. And most of all we must push back against the BLS and get a little angry. We won’t take it easy, man. Not until we start getting the public services we’ve more than paid for with our super-high taxes.

    *  *  *

    Subscribe to Michael Shellenberger

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/18/2022 – 20:45

  • Massive Saharan Dust Plume Over Atlantic, Headed For US By Weekend 
    Massive Saharan Dust Plume Over Atlantic, Headed For US By Weekend 

    A massive plume of dust referred to as a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) could reach U.S. Gulf Coast states this weekend, according to AccuWeather. 

    On Tuesday, weather models show SAL traversing the Atlantic. The expectation is this enormous plume of dust will sweep across the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of this week, reaching the U.S. Gulf Coast by Saturday. 

    “A large batch of dust was evident on satellite photos from the start of this week and was beginning to enter the Caribbean. 

    “It is possible, but not a certainty, that this dust will make the trip as far as the Gulf and south-central U.S. late this week or this weekend,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. 

    This is the trans-Atlantic SAL of the year and could bring hazy skies and extra color to sunrises and sunsets for parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. 

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    “While NASA’s dust forecast model shows some dust in the skies over the western Gulf coast from Louisiana to Texas on Sunday, the Copernicus satellite model says the dust will dissipate before it reaches the United States, except for southern Florida,” AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor Jesse Ferrell said. 

    If the SAL does reach the U.S. this weekend, it may also bring health hazards, such as a surge in air pollution and agitating health issues for those with respiratory issues. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/18/2022 – 20:25

  • NYC "Afraid" Of Possible Pro-Gun Supreme Court Win
    NYC “Afraid” Of Possible Pro-Gun Supreme Court Win

    Submitted by The Machine Gun Nest (TMGN).,

    As if we needed any more evidence that the Supreme Court case, NYSRPA v. Bruen, will expand gun rights, New York politicians are sounding the alarm that a pro-gun ruling could have a significant impact.

    We’ve been covering NYSRPA v. Bruen for a while now, for those unaware. The case deals with what’s known as “may issue” licensing schemes regarding concealed carry permit issuance in liberal states.

    In states with a “may issue” system, you as a citizen must provide a “good and substantial reason” as to why you “need” to carry a firearm. Often this system is used to deny average citizens a permit to carry, as self-defense is not a “substantial” enough reason.

    In contrast to the rest of the United States, where the vast majority of states are “shall issue.” Also, in comparison to “May Issue,” a “Shall Issue” system leaves the burden of proof on the State as to why a citizen shouldn’t have a permit. Simply, “Shall Issue” means that you can receive a license if you can legally own a firearm.

    Also worth mentioning is that now in 25 States, “constitutional carry” has been implemented, making the need for a permit completely irrelevant. If you can legally own a gun, you can lawfully carry that gun. We’re currently seeing a push for more states to nix their permit requirements, including Florida.

    “We should be very afraid,” said New York City Mayor Eric Adams when asked about a possible pro-gun victory in NYSRPA v Bruen. But what is there to be afraid of?

    Reports from the corporate media seem to twist language to make the idea of law-abiding citizens gaining easier access to concealed carry permits a scary and dangerous occurrence. But, we know from multiple studies that concealed carry permit holders are some of the most law-abiding citizens out there. 

    Take, for example, a recent study conducted by the Philadelphia Police Department (and highlighted by the good folks over at The Reload).

    In the study, it seems that on a week-by-week basis since the city of Philadelphia made their concealed carry permit more accessible, homicides have decreased, while defensive shootings have increased.

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    It’s also worth noting that even in response to the recent tragedy in Buffalo, NY, many people are looking to arm themselves to defend their communities. Currently, in New York, getting a permit to carry is tough. NYSRPA v. Bruen could change that.

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    Overall, there doesn’t seem to be any benefit to restricting law-abiding citizens’ access to self-defense. It’s just common sense; criminals don’t follow the law and will continue to have guns regardless of the rules and regulations that are passed and implemented. Why not let the average citizen have the ability to defend themselves if they choose to do so?

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/18/2022 – 20:05

  • US Navy Amasses 'Show Of Force' Near China Amid Taiwan Invasion Threats
    US Navy Amasses ‘Show Of Force’ Near China Amid Taiwan Invasion Threats

    The US Navy amassed a show of force in the waters near China. Top Western officials worry that Beijing could launch a military takeover of Taiwan after learning lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

    The USS Ronald Reagan carrier and USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike groups, the USS America expeditionary strike group, and the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli operate around the Philippine Sea to Japan to Western Pacific, according to the latest fleet tracking report by USNI News. 

    China’s Tencent News reports the US Navy’s increasing show of force “means that the US military will conduct more military operations in the waters surrounding our country in the next few weeks.” 

    The arrival of warships in the region comes as the USS Port Royal, a Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser, was followed by China’s Eastern Theater Command while sailing through the Taiwan Strait on May 10. 

    Earlier this month, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) held a war exercise surrounding the island of Taiwan. PLA’s combat preparedness has concerned top US intelligence officials about mounting risks Beijing is preparing to invade Taiwan. 

    ​”It’s our view that they [the Chinese] are working hard to effectively put themselves into a position in which their military is capable of taking Taiwan over,” Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told lawmakers on the Senate Armed Services Committee last week. 

    In the last few months, Beijing has taken notes about lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and how Western powers have reacted. 

    Chinese President Xi Jinping views Taiwan as part of its territory under the “one China” policy. Beijing has become increasingly irritated at Western powers for arming Taipei.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/18/2022 – 19:45

  • Diesel Costs Deliver Body Blow To Trucking Industry, Impacting Broader Economy
    Diesel Costs Deliver Body Blow To Trucking Industry, Impacting Broader Economy

    By Noi Mahoney of Freightwaves

    With diesel prices remaining elevated — forcing significant costs onto shippers and trucking companies — the impact of fuel costs on inflation could put a dent in consumer spending, according to experts.

    Diesel pump prices averaged $5.61 a gallon nationwide, 51% higher than diesel prices across the country in January

    Economist Anirban Basu said the elevated price of diesel fuel damages the near-term U.S. economic outlook and “renders the chance of recession in 2023 much greater.”

    “These high diesel prices mean that despite the Federal Reserve’s early stage efforts to curb inflationary pressures, for now, inflationary pressures will run rampant through the economy,” Basu, CEO of Baltimore-based Sage Policy Group, told FreightWaves. 

    Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve announced a half-percentage-point increase in interest rates, the largest hike in over two decades. The U.S. inflation rate is at 8.3%, near 40-year highs.

    Basu said consumer spending remains strong, even with elevated diesel prices, but that could change as shippers and trucking companies eventually must pass higher fuel costs on to the public. 

    “One of the things we’ve been seeing in the U.S., particularly on the East Coast, is that diesel fuel inventories have been shrinking, which suggests that despite all this inflationary pressure, there’s still a lot of consumer activity, still lots of trucks on the road and the supply is unable to keep up with demand,” Basu said. “The higher price of diesel fuel will become embedded in the cost of everything consumers purchase.” 

    Prices of fresh produce rising

    Jordan DeWart, a managing director at RedWood Mexico, based in Laredo, Texas, said the types of consumer goods that could be immediately affected by higher diesel prices include fresh produce. Redwood Mexico is part of Chicago-based Redwood Logistics.

    “With produce, that’s typically more in the spot rate business, and any of those smaller trucking companies are going to be heavily impacted by fuel costs,” DeWart said.

    The U.S. imported more than $15 billion in fresh produce from Mexico in 2021, including avocados, tomatoes, grapes, bell peppers and strawberries, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

    “Everything coming northbound from Mexico through Laredo, the rates have been very sustained, but fuel prices keep going up, presumably with any differences being absorbed by the trucking companies in the spot market,” DeWart said. “When we talk to asset-based truckers, especially the smaller companies, they’re really feeling the pinch.”

    It’s not only cross-border operators feeling the pinch. Growers and shippers in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley are also suffering because of increased fuel costs, said Dante Galeazzi, president of the Texas International Produce Association (TIPA).

    “Our growers, shippers, importers, distributors … basically our entire supply chain has been and continues to be impacted by rising fuel costs,” Galeazzi told FreightWaves. “Between one-third to one-half of the costs for fresh produce is the logistics; you can see how quickly increases in that expense category can impact the base price.”

    The Rio Grande Valley is the epicenter of the Lone Star State’s fresh produce industry, stretching across the southeastern tip of Texas along the U.S.-Mexico border. More than 35 types of fruits and vegetables are grown in the valley, which contributes more than $1 billion to the state economy annually.

    “More concerning is that this wave of fuel increases is in line with the statistic that our industry is paying anywhere from 70% to 150% more year-over-year for OTR shipping,” Galeazzi said. 

    TIPA, which is based in Mission, Texas, represents growers, domestic shippers, import shippers, specialty shippers, distributors and material and service providers. 

    Right now, Rio Grande Valley growers and shippers are absorbing higher input costs instead of passing them on to consumers, but that could soon change, Galeazzi said.

    “While the fresh fruit and vegetable industry continues to experience rising input costs across the board (seed, agrochemicals, labor, fuel, packaging, etc.), we have yet to experience sufficient upstream returns associated with those expense increases,” Galeazzi said. “Our industry is citing an 18% to 22% anecdotal increase to overhead costs. Meanwhile food inflation for fresh produce is hovering around 7%. That means the costs are slowly being felt by consumers, but it’s not yet at a commensurate level with input expenses.”

    Diesel fuel prices at all time highs

    The cost of diesel continues to soar across the country. Diesel pump prices averaged $5.61 a gallon nationwide, according to weekly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). That’s 51% higher than diesel prices nationwide in January. 

    California averaged the highest fuel prices across the U.S., at $6 per gallon of gas and $6.56 per gallon for diesel, according to AAA. Diesel prices are also at an all-time high of $6.41 in New York.

    The higher prices of diesel fuel and gasoline are being caused by a combination of factors, including surging demand and reduced refining capacity, along with the disruption to global markets caused by COVID-19, the current lockdown in China and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, said Rory Johnston, a managing director at Toronto-based research firm Price Street.

    “The overarching oil market is feeling much tighter because of the Russian-Ukraine situation,” Johnston, also writer of the newsletter Commodity Context, told FreightWaves. “What we’ve seen is a larger immediate impact from the loss of Russian refined products; in addition to exporting millions and millions of barrels a day of crude oil, Russia also exported a lot of refined products, most notably middle distillates, like gasoline or diesel.”

    Several refineries on the East Coast — including facilities in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada — scaled back during the early days of the pandemic, which has hurt diesel capacity, Johnston said.

    “There was also a refinery in Philadelphia that exploded just prior to the COVID-19 period starting,” Johnston said. “There’s not enough refining capacity on the global level, and particularly in the West right now and particularly in the northeastern U.S.”

    He said he doesn’t foresee any relief from increasing diesel prices over the next few months or more.

    “Things are going to be really tight for at least the next year, barring any kind of economic recession and some kind of demand slowdown materially,” Johnston said. 

    DeWart said trucking companies that don’t have a fuel surcharge component or contract in place and are depending on spot rates could be in big trouble over the next several months as diesel prices either keep rising or stay higher than average. 

    “Their fuel costs keep going up, but they’re really not able to negotiate higher rates right now with a really tight spot market,” DeWart said. “It’s really impacting small trucking companies, anyone that decided to kind of play the spot market, rather than being locked in contracted rates. They’re really feeling the pain right now.”

    DeWart said for trucking companies, it’s critical to get some type of fuel reimbursement program in place “just to protect themselves in case the cost of fuel goes even higher.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/18/2022 – 19:25

  • Biden Admin Bracing For Wave Of Summer Violence Over Roe v. Wade
    Biden Admin Bracing For Wave Of Summer Violence Over Roe v. Wade

    The Biden administration is bracing for a wave of violence this summer, assuming the US Supreme Court follows through in June on a leaked opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade, according to Fox News.

    According to a May 13 Department of Homeland Security (DHS) memo, threats have been made to “burn down or storm” the Supreme Court building.

    The threats come as protesters have spent weeks outside the homes of conservative justices, who have been relocated along with their families for their protection.

    The DHS memo carefully explains that rhetoric supporting violent extremism does not itself constitute extremism.

    “The mere advocacy of political or social positions, political activism, use of strong rhetoric, or generalized philosophic embrace of violent tactics does not constitute domestic violent extremism or illegal activity and is constitutionally protected,” it reportedly reads.

    A DHS spokesperson told Fox News that the agency is “committed to protecting Americans’ freedom of speech and other civil rights and civil liberties, including the right to peacefully protest,” adding “DHS is also committed to working with our partners across every level of government and the private sector to share timely information and intelligence, prevent all forms of violence, and to support law enforcement efforts to keep our communities safe.”

    Last week the Senate voted unanimously to increase security for USSC justices following the leak. It allows Supreme Court police to arrest individuals who interfere with the court’s duties.

    “Attempts to intimidate Supreme Court Justices by the Radical Left are sadly nothing new, but dangerous nonetheless,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) who instroduced the legislation. “We must protect the Justices and their families in case these protests do turn violent.”

    We’re sure this summer’s protests will be ‘mostly peaceful.’

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/18/2022 – 19:05

  • Mortality Among White Collar Workers Jumped 24 Percent Between 2020 And 2021, Life Insurance Data Show
    Mortality Among White Collar Workers Jumped 24 Percent Between 2020 And 2021, Life Insurance Data Show

    Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The increase in deaths not attributed to COVID-19 in the working-age population during the summer and into the fall of last year hit white-collar workers more than the blue- and grey-collar ones, according to life insurance data.

    First responders load a patient into an ambulance from a nursing home where multiple people have contracted COID-19 on April 17, 2020 in Chelsea, Massachusetts. (Scott Eisen/Getty Images)

    In the white-collar sector, mortality jumped 24 percent in the period the data pertained to (April 2020-September 2021). Less than 64 percent of those were attributed to COVID-19. In the blue-collar sector, mortality increased by 19 percent, of which over 80 percent was attributed to COVID-19.

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    As The Epoch Times previously reported, prime-age mortality was particularly elevated in the 12 months ending October 2021, where there was an excess death spike of more than 40 percent in ages ranging 18–49, compared with the same period in 2018–2019, based on death certificate data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The majority of the excess deaths weren’t attributed to COVID-19.

    Health care workers tend to a patient in a January 2021 file photo. (Ariana Drehsler/AFP/Getty Images)

    A recent study by the Society of Actuaries (SOA), an international professional organization, corroborates the CDC data. It relies on a survey of group term life insurance providers that yielded data on claims made from 2017 to 2021 and reported to insurers by Sept. 30, 2021 (pdf).

    The life insurance data show an increase in excess mortality since the second quarter of 2020, along with the COVID-19 pandemic, including a particularly sharp hike in the third quarter of 2021—39 percent above what would have been expected based on 2017–2019 data. That quarter was exceptionally devastating for age groups 25–34, 35–44, 45–54, and 55–64, in which mortality soared 81 percent, 117 percent, 108 percent, and 70 percent above the baseline respectively.

    Deaths attributed to COVID-19 accounted for about three-quarters of the excess mortality during the 18 months the study looked at. But among those under the age of 45, COVID-19 accounted for less than 38 percent of the excess deaths, the study says.

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    Among industries with the largest number of COVID-19 deaths, the worst hit was public administration with nearly 13,000 life insurance claims related to the disease. Yet those only accounted for less than 52 percent of the sector’s excess mortality, which rose 24 percent during the pandemic months.

    Several other white-collar industries also experienced high excess mortality—22 percent in both doctors’ offices and educational services. COVID-19 claims accounted for nearly 80 percent and 70 percent of the spike respectively.

    A paramedic prepares an ambulance at Hudson Regional Hospital in Secaucus, N.J., on Dec. 11, 2020. (Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images)

    By contrast, in heavy and steel manufacturing mortality rose by 9 percent, with COVID-19 more than accounting for the entire spike. In fact, non-COVID-19 mortality dropped by a few percent in this sector.

    The insurance data aren’t directly comparable to the CDC data because the population covered by group life insurance policies differs from the general population. Since the policies are commonly offered by employers, the overall population weighs disproportionately toward working-age adults.

    The study didn’t go into detail on non-COVID-19 causes of the excess deaths.

    The CDC has not yet released fully detailed cause-of-death data for the recent period, but a previous analysis by The Epoch Times, informed by conversations with state authorities and experts, revealed several potential causes of the excess mortality, including undercounted COVID-19 deaths, drug overdoses, alcohol-related disease, and injuries possibly caused by the COVID-19 vaccines.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 05/18/2022 – 18:45

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