Today’s News 19th May 2023

• Europe Approves World’s First Cryptocurrency Regulations
  Europe Approves World’s First Cryptocurrency Regulations

  Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The European Union has approved a set of rules—the first such regulation in the world—to regulate crypto assets like cryptocurrencies and tokens in a bid to curb money laundering activities and protect investors.

  

  The markets in crypto-assets (MiCA) legislation was approved on May 16 by EU ministers. The new rules will increase transparency and create a comprehensive framework for businesses operating in crypto markets, including compliance with anti-money laundering rules, according to a May 16 press release. “Recent events have confirmed the urgent need for imposing rules which will better protect Europeans who have invested in these assets, and prevent the misuse of crypto industry for the purposes of money laundering and financing of terrorism,” said Elisabeth Svantesson, Minister for Finance of Sweden.

  Crypto markets have suffered in recent months due to the collapse of multiple firms. FTX, Alameda, Core Scientific, Voyager Digital, Celsius Network, BlockFi, and Three Arrows Capital are some of the major crypto companies that have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and decided to liquidate their assets to pay back customers. Each of these firms is estimated to have liabilities worth billions of dollars that they owe to thousands of creditors.

  MiCA was approved unanimously by members of the EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council (EcoFin). EcoFin represents the economic and finance ministers of all 27 EU nations.

  In May last year, European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde raised concerns about cryptocurrencies during an interview on Dutch television.

  “I have said all along the crypto assets are highly speculative, very risky assets,” Lagarde told the program. “My very humble assessment is that it is worth nothing. It is based on nothing, there is no underlying assets to act as an anchor of safety.”

  Earlier, the ECB President had called Bitcoin a “highly speculative asset” that contributes to money laundering activity.

  The Legislation

  MiCA covers issuers of utility tokens, asset-referenced tokens, as well as stablecoins. Service providers like trading venues and crypto wallets also come under its purview. The legislation is on track to become law in the EU region this summer, and is expected to be rolled out from 2024.

  Firms looking to issue, trade, or safeguard crypto assets in the EU bloc will have to secure a license to do so. MiCA aims to combat tax evasion and money laundering via cryptocurrencies by making transactions involving these instruments easier to trace.

  Beginning January 2026, service providers in the crypto industry will have to obtain the names of senders and beneficiaries of digital assets irrespective of the amount involved in the transaction.

  Entities doing business in the crypto sector will be obliged to ensure their security protocols are up to the required standard. They have to comply with stringent rules to protect consumer funds and can become liable in case the funds of investors are lost.

  MiCA establishes liquidity and disclosure requirements for crypto companies. The management of a crypto firm may be fined in case they fail to make sure the reserve funds are properly managed.

  US Situation

  Efforts to establish comprehensive regulation in the crypto industry are also underway in the United States. In March 2022, President Joe Biden issued an executive order seeking to ensure the responsible development of digital assets.

  Since then, multiple government agencies have been framing policies aimed at pushing six areas of focus outlined in the order, including protecting investors and customers, ensuring financial stability, and countering illicit finance.

  In September, the Biden administration released its first-ever comprehensive framework aimed at regulating digital assets like cryptocurrencies.

  In January 2023, a White House blog post highlighted some of the dangers posed by cryptocurrencies while calling on Congress to pass new laws to limit criminal activity in the sector.

  Officials characterized digital assets as a promising nascent industry that needs to be reined in to protect consumers. It also asked that laws incentivizing more investment into crypto be avoided.

  “Legislation should not greenlight mainstream institutions, like pension funds, to dive headlong into cryptocurrency markets,” the blog said. “It would be a grave mistake to enact legislation that reverses course and deepens the ties between cryptocurrencies and the broader financial system.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/19/2023 – 02:00

• Murray Rothbard On Taiwan & The Third World War
  Murray Rothbard On Taiwan & The Third World War

  Authored by Joseph Solis-Mullen via The Libertarian Institute, 

  Writing pseudonymously in a series of articles for Faith and Freedom in the 1950s, Murray Rothbard took on the question of whether or not the United States should defend Formosa (Taiwan) from attack by mainland China. While his conclusions will surprise no one familiar with his work (that war is the health of the state, that individuals concerned with the fate of Taiwan should do as they will privately, but that their lives and property are not for the government to command), a review of the articles’ contents are worthwhile, nonetheless.

  For apart from such typically memorably Rothbardian lines as “only those who want to socialize America really look forward to the third and perhaps last World War,” we find many of the same ludicrous rationales for war with China used today excoriated with great wit by Rothbard.

  

  For example, Rothbard begins the first of these, “Along Pennsylvania Avenue,” by rhetorically posing the question of how it happened that a smattering of islands eighty miles off the coast of mainland China became “necessary to our defense,” and as an answer he replies:

  …[the government] were forced to portray the Reds as “island hopping” their way to the United States. […For] if the Reds take Formosa, they will be one island nearer to the United States. It is an age-old story: a peaceful Pacific “moat” is needed for our defense. In order to protect his moat, we must secure friendly countries or bases all around it. To protect Japan and the Philippines, we must defend Formosa, to protect Formosa we must defend the Pescadores. To protect the Pescadores, we must defend Quemoy, an island three miles off the Chinese mainland. To protect Quemoy we must equip Chiang’s troops for an invasion of the mainland. Where does this process end? Logically, never (18).

  Readers unfamiliar with the history of the region may be interested in some additional context regarding Rothbard’s mention of equipping Chiang Kai-shek, the dictator of Taiwan and exiled leader of China’s failed Republic, for an invasion of the mainland. Despite having been driven from the off by force of arms, and only secured in their island fortress by virtue of the United States Navy repeatedly intervening to prevent a cross-strait invasion by the PLA, it was the official policy of Taipei to retake the mainland by force. Though such plains never got far off the ground—and were mostly abandoned by the 1970s—it was not until the constitutional revisions of the 1990s that Taiwan officially gave up such a policy of armed reconquest in favor of focusing strictly on its own defense.

  Writing in the 1950s, near the height of the first Taiwan Strait Crisis and when talk of an invasion of the mainland by Taipei was still openly planned and called for by Chiang, Rothbard heroically pushed back against those who equated isolation with appeasement.

  In a scene all too familiar, he complained that Congress’ answer to heightened tensions over Formosa was to write what “amounted to a blank check for war in China whenever the President shall deem it necessary,” noting sadly that only two congressmen had opposed the resolution on the grounds that the United States should not actively seek to “engage their boys in a war on foreign soil,” the rest merely arguing over the scope or scale of the commitment to be made.

  Rothbard was predictably red-baited for his efforts, even attacked by a fellow “libertarian” in Faith and Freedom. He defended himself in a series of further articles, “Fight for Formosa?” Parts I & II, and reflecting on the experience some years later in The Betrayal of the American Right he had this to say:

  I could never—and still cannot—detect one iota of devotion to ‘freedom’ in the worldview of those whose zeal for crusading abroad makes them blind to the real enemy: the invasion of our liberty by the State…to give up our freedom in order to “preserve” it is only succumbing to the Orwellian dialectic that “freedom is slavery.”

  Indeed.

  The distance between Payson, UT, USA and Qigu District, Tainan City, Taiwan 724 is 11176km #Maps #GIS #Earth pic.twitter.com/C3FLyAQWFY

  — Random Distance (@RandomDistance) February 14, 2018

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  Those who today reasonably say that the defense of an island eighty miles off the coast of mainland China and five thousand miles from Hawaii (let alone the mainland United States) cannot possibly be a core national interest can take comfort in following the footsteps of such brave and principled forebearers as Rothbard.

  Americans can and must say NO! to the new Cold War and refuse efforts by Washington to provoke Beijing with regards to Taiwan, virtually its only declared “red line.”

  That is, unless another disaster like Ukraine is the goal—which it may well be.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 23:40

• Global Executions Hit Highest Rate In Five Years
  Global Executions Hit Highest Rate In Five Years

  The number of people executed under the death penalty increased by 53 percent in 2022, according to a landmark report by Amnesty International, with the global death toll hitting 883 people, up from 579 the year before.

  This marks the highest execution rate in five years.

  As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to Amnesty, three countries – Iran, Egypt and Saudi Arabia – accounted for 90 percent of all known executions.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Iran saw an 83 percent increase, rising from 341 in 2021 to at least 576 people being killed in 2022. Of these cases, 255 were drug-related offenses and 279 were for murder. This grim trend has continued into this year, with at least 94 people put to death in the country in January and February alone, with executions used as a tool of ethnic repression, according to Amnesty.

  Saudi Arabia’s numbers also saw a major increase, tripling from 65 to 196 people. This marks the highest number of known executions recorded in the country in 30 years. The change was mainly driven by an increase of executions for terrorism-related offenses (rising from 9 in 2021 to 85 in 2022) as well as the resumption of executions for drug-related offenses (rising from 0 in 2021 to 57 in 2022). Egypt executed 24 people and handed out 538 death sentences that year.

  China continues to be considered the most serious executioner, with deaths expected to be in their thousands. Our chart excludes these figures, however, as the secrecy of the state means that exact death count remains unknown. Amnesty said that figures are also unknown for North Korea and Vietnam, and adds that the total yearly figures represent the minimum values.

  The known executions recorded and used in this chart were carried out in 20 countries in 2022, up from 18 the year before. In the United States 2022 saw 18 executions nationwide, which is an increase from the 11 the year before, but still remains among the country’s lowest figures.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 23:20

• Who Is Better At Raising Your Child, You Or The State?
  Who Is Better At Raising Your Child, You Or The State?

  Authored by Mattias Desmet via Substack (emphasis ours),

  The Belgian politician Connor Rousseau and his social-democratic Vooruit party want to require parents to send their children to day care and kindergarten. There are still politicians who think of the children. And the logic is conclusive: the first six years of life are decisive for the future life of the child. That cannot be left to the parents. The state must take its responsibility and release money. A few billion is enough to get the job done.

  

  No one knows where that money will come from. But if necessary, some additional printing can be done. That is actually a way to make the population pay more taxes without them realizing it. Citizens nowadays pay barely 53 percent taxes. A little more loyalty to the state is welcome. Moreover, it is for their own good, and that of their descendants. Citizens do not realize enough how important it is that their children are brought up well. Just as they do not realize that they cannot actually do that themselves and that the state must do it for them.

  And if inflation leads to the collapse of the financial system, then a solution is already at hand: the introduction of the CBDC—the digital currency of the central banks. This will be linked to the digital passport and a social credit system. In this way, the state will educate not only the child, but the parents as well, according to a system of punishment and reward that Pavlov tested on dogs.

  Granted, Pavlov concluded that his system of rewards and punishment really only works if you know the character of the individual dog. Every dog ultimately reacts in its own way to rewards and punishment. We can ask ourselves whether the state will also take the individual character of the child-puppies in daycare into account in its state education. That chance is small. Connor Rousseau believes that every child should receive equal opportunities and thus an equal education. Whether the child actually benefits from it or not is beside the point.

  The state has to guarantee the quality of education and will therefore also have to monitor and evaluate it. Just as the state cannot trust the weighty job of parenting to parents, it cannot trust the job of childcare to childcare providers. They will therefore have to be subjected to strict protocols, as befits a good bureaucracy. And those protocols will be designed by experts who have scientifically determined which conditioning techniques lead to the best adapted little New Citizen.

  During the coronavirus crisis, those experts—not the same, of course, because there are experts for every part of your private life—also took control of your health and that of your children. Just as you don’t know how to raise your child now, you didn’t know then how to take care of your own health and that of your offspring.

  We were all urged to get ourselves and our children vaccinated, especially so that grandma and grandpa would not get infected. Here and there, rare critical scientists suggested that a vaccine could not prevent infections, partly because coronaviruses mutate quickly. People didn’t listen to such nonsense–these scientists were thrown off Twitter and robbed of their jobs.

  And those who refused to get vaccinated were treated as second-class citizens. They were no longer allowed to go to a restaurant or a theater. In some countries they were banned from taking public transport. French President Macron believed that their lives should be made into a living hell. Totalitarian leaders are so convinced that their logic is the only correct one—one that will ultimately lead to Paradise—that all basic tenets of humanity get thrown overboard in pursuit of that logic.

  Unfortunately, the totalitarian logic, as it has throughout history, failed. The Great Guardian of American public health, Anthony Fauci, now says pretty much the same thing as those critical voices—that the virus is mutating too quickly to develop a vaccine that protects against infection on a long-term basis. Experts refer to this as the progressive nature of science. Apparently science progresses very quickly these days. Almost as fast as Pfizer’s share price during that same year.

  Chances are, childrearing expertise is a work in progress, as well. When parents notice that their little New Citizen, through his state upbringing, is not as happy and perfect as protocol had promised, their only consolation will be that by willingly giving their child to the state they have contributed to the advancement of Science.

  The problem with this kind of “science” is that it fails to recognize that education and health are both phenomena that deal primarily with individuality—a person’s unique characteristics as a subject. The literature on placebo and nocebo effects should in itself be enough to dispel any doubt: the subjective appreciation of a treatment determines its therapeutic effects. In the same way, the core of a good upbringing focuses on the individuality of the child. The educator must see the child in his singularity—he must love the child for his uniqueness. Without that love, education becomes indoctrination.

  A protocol-based education inevitably fails. Although the Great Parenting Experts will probably explain their failure in a different way. It will still be the parents’ fault, after all. And the Great State Education should actually start even earlier, preferably in Huxley’s bottling room.

  And if your love for your child should give you the courage to call the state to account, you will find that you actually have nowhere to go. Hannah Arendt noted about bureaucracies 50 years ago: “In a fully developed bureaucracy there is nobody left with whom one can argue, to whom one can present grievances, on whom the pressures of power can be exerted. Bureaucracy is the form of government in which everybody is deprived of political freedom, of the power to act; for the rule by Nobody is not no-rule, and where all are equally powerless, we have a tyranny without a tyrant.” (Hannah Arendt, “On Violence”)

  Just to say: I would be careful with the idea of an Ideal State Education. If the state has to protect children from their parents, parents have to protect their children from the state.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 23:00

• Battered By Inflation, 90 Million Americans Struggle Paying Bills As Credit Card Usage Spikes
  Battered By Inflation, 90 Million Americans Struggle Paying Bills As Credit Card Usage Spikes

  A large swath of American consumers are facing financial hardship as they grapple with elevated living costs, record-high credit card use, and two years of negative real wage growth. This perfect storm could decimate financially fragile households in the next downturn. 

  As many as 89.1 million American adults (or about 38.5%) were found to experience some form of difficulty in covering expenses between April 26 and May 8, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from the Household Pulse Survey. This is up from 34.4% in 2022 and 26.7% during the same period in 2021. 

  

  The rising trend is alarming but not surprising. Consumers have been battered by two years of negative real wage growth.

  

  As wages fail to outpace the cost of living, many consumers have burned through savings and resorted to credit cards. The latest revolving credit data shows consumers appear to be ‘strong,’ but that’s only because they use their plastic cards more than ever to survive. 

  

  The Household Pulse Survey found struggling households were primarily based across West Coast and the South. 

  

  Compared with the same period last year, the survey found 2.7 million more households were relying on credit cards to cover expenses. 

  

  Consumers have record card debt and ultra-low savings rates and are paying some of the highest borrowing costs in a generation (the average interest rate on cards now exceeds 20%). This debt is becoming insurmountable for some as delinquencies rise. 

  And what we have now is new debit and credit card data published by the Bank of America Institute that shows not just spending slowdown for lower-income consumers, but also the upper-income cohort is finally starting to crack. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 22:40

• FBI Concerned Jan. 6 Footage Would Expose Undercover Agents, Informants: Whistleblower
  FBI Concerned Jan. 6 Footage Would Expose Undercover Agents, Informants: Whistleblower

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  FBI officials were concerned that footage from inside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, would show undercover agents and confidential informants, a whistleblower said in testimony revealed on May 18.

  George Hill, a retired supervisory intelligence analyst who worked out of the FBI’s Boston field office, recounted that the bureau’s Washington field office (WFO) pressured officials in Boston to open investigations on 138 people who attended a rally on Jan. 6, 2021, even though there were no indications the people violated the law.

  🚨BREAKING🚨

  FBI whistleblower testifies under oath that FBI won’t allow 11,000+ hours of J6 footage to be released b/c it would expose undercover agents committing crimes inside Capitol

  Not only was J6 a Fed setup, but now it’s confirmed that FBI is also covering its tracks pic.twitter.com/k6I8gLSqaO

  — DC_Draino (@DC_Draino) May 18, 2023

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  Boston officials pushed back, saying they would need evidence, such as footage of individuals inside the Capitol, to open investigations of the individuals.

  “Happy to do it. Show us where they were inside the Capitol, and we’ll look into it,” one official was quoted as saying.

  “We can’t show you those videos unless you can tell us the exact time and place those individuals were inside the Capitol,” WFO officials responded, according to Hill.

  Hill said Boston officials questioned why they couldn’t get access to the tranche of some 11,000 hours of footage from inside the Capitol.

  “Because there may be—may be—UCs, undercover officers, or … confidential human sources, on those videos whose identity we need to protect,” Washington-based officials responded.

  “FBI says it won’t release Jan 6 surveillance video because it would show too many undercover government agents and informants”

  Uhh … this is insane!!

  How many were there? I’m mean … just approximately.

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 19, 2023

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  Hill recounted the discussions during testimony to the U.S. House’s Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government. The clip from the testimony was played during a hearing on May 18 and detailed in a report the panel released based on whistleblower disclosures.

  The FBI’s national headquarters and the WFO didn’t respond to requests for comment.

  

  Wray Testimony

  Marcus Allen, another FBI employee who has also become a whistleblower, has alleged that he was retaliated against because he shared an email with other FBI workers that questioned whether FBI Director Christopher Wray was truthful while testifying to Congress.

  “You believe that Christopher Wray indicated that there were no confidential informants, no FBI assets that were present at the Capitol on Jan. 6 that were part of the violent riot, isn’t that right?” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), a member of the subcommittee, asked Allen.

  “Yes, sir,” Allen said.

  They appeared to be referring to testimony given behind closed doors.

  After playing the clip of Hill’s comments, Gaetz said, “You got retaliated against for the very thing, for saying the very thing that the Washington field office was telling Boston.”

  Wray told one congressional panel in a public hearing in late 2022 that he wouldn’t say whether the bureau had confidential sources embedded among the Jan. 6 protesters.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 22:20

• TSA Pilot-Tests Controversial Facial Recognition Technology At These 16 Airports
  TSA Pilot-Tests Controversial Facial Recognition Technology At These 16 Airports

  The next time you find yourself at airport security, prepare to look directly into a camera. The Transportation Security Administration is quietly testing controversial facial recognition technology at airports nationwide. 

  AP News said 16 airports, including Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall and Reagan National near Washington, as well as ones in Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Orlando, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, San Jose, and Gulfport-Biloxi and Jackson in Mississippi, have installed kiosks with cameras (at some TSA checkpoints) that allow passengers to insert their government-issued ID and look into a camera as facial recognition technology asses if the ID and person match. 

  

  Here’s what to expect at airports utilizing this new technology:

  Travelers put their driver’s license into a slot that reads the card or place their passport photo against a card reader. Then they look at a camera on a screen about the size of an iPad, which captures their image and compares it to their ID. The technology is both checking to make sure the people at the airport match the ID they present and that the identification is in fact real. A TSA officer is still there and signs off on the screening. -AP

  “What we are trying to do with this is aid the officers to actually determine that you are who you say who you are,” said Jason Lim, identity management capabilities manager, during a recent demonstration of the technology to reporters at BWI. 

  TSA said the pilot test is voluntary, and passengers can opt out. The facial recognition technology has raised concerns among critics, like five senators (four Democrats and an Independent) who sent a letter in February to the TSA requesting the pilot test be halted immediately. 

  “Increasing biometric surveillance of Americans by the government represents a risk to civil liberties and privacy rights,” the senators said. 

  The letter continued:

  “We are concerned about the safety and security of Americans’ biometric data in the hands of authorized private corporations or unauthorized bad actors.

  “As government agencies grow their database of identifying images, increasingly large databases will prove more and more enticing targets for hackers and cybercriminals.”

  Meg Foster, a justice fellow at Georgetown University’s Center on Privacy and Technology, is concerned that even though the TSA says it’s not storing biometric data, it collects, “What if that changes in the future?” 

  Jeramie Scott, with the Electronic Privacy Information Center, said that even though the TSA facial recognition kiosks are being tested, it could be only a matter of time before it becomes a more permanent fixture at checkpoints. 

  Despite the US being a first-world country, it has third-world protections for its people. There’s an increasing number of government agencies that want your biometric data. Even the IRS wants your face. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 22:00

• "Huge" Bearish Bets Gone Wrong Cost Carl Icahn $9 Billion In Losses
  “Huge” Bearish Bets Gone Wrong Cost Carl Icahn $9 Billion In Losses

  Regular readers may recall that there was a time back in 2016 when Carl Icahn emerged as one of the market’s biggest bears, warning CNBC that a lot of companies are “way overvalued” and that he was “very concerned about the market in the short-term“, not long after we first reported that the bearish exposure of the billionaire’s investment vehicle, Icahn Enterprises, had gone a record 149% net short.

  Icahn Enterprises net and gross exposure https://t.co/s89xgVnGZz pic.twitter.com/69S1GSZPAn

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 5, 2016

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  Icahn Enterprises has gone a record -149% net short https://t.co/eVFOLfvvTk pic.twitter.com/a2G058THyQ

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 10, 2016

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  And despite frequent at-the-time accusations that Uncle Carl was merely trying to find exit liquidity with his apocalyptic rhetoric, and was secretly bullish taking the other side of others’ liqujidations, we now learn that Icahn’s bearishness at a time when the S&P was moving higher year after year was not only real but ended up costing him dearly. 

  The FT has reported that Carl Icahn admitted he was wrong to make a “huge bet” that the market would crash after the ill-fated trade cost his firm nearly $9bn over roughly six years.

  According to a Financial Times analysis, the prominent activist investor lost about $1.8bn in 2017 on hedging positions that would have paid out if asset prices had tumbled before losing a further $7bn between 2018 and the first quarter of this year.

  “I’ve always told people there is nobody who can really pick the market on a short-term or an intermediate-term basis,” Icahn told the FT in an interview to discuss the analysis. “Maybe I made the mistake of not adhering to my own advice in recent years.”

  According to the FT, Icahn Enterprises started aggressively betting on a market collapse in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and became increasingly bolder in subsequent years, deploying a complex strategy that involved shorting broad market indices, individual companies, commercial mortgages and debt securities.

  At times, Icahn’s notional bearish exposure exceeded $15bn according to regulatory filings. “You never get the perfect hedge, but if I kept the parameters I always believed in . . . I would have been fine,” he said. “But I didn’t.”

  In retrospect, the perfect hedge would have been… a zero hedge. But we digress.

  Icahn Enterprises, the billionaire’s majority owned listed vehicle which has been hammered in recent weeks by losses as a result of a short report by another prominent bear, Hindenburg Research, reported a total of $4.3bn in short losses in 2020 and 2021 as markets quickly rebounded from the pandemic slump following the Federal Reserve’s huge stimulus.

  “I obviously believed the market was in for great trouble,” said Icahn. “[But] the Fed injected trillions of dollars into the market to fight Covid and the old saying is true: ‘don’t fight the Fed’.”

  It’s the same logic we applied in the aftermath of the bank failures in March, when contrary to consensus popular opinion that markets would crash, we said the chase was only starting as a result of the massive liquidity injection by the Fed to stabilize markets. We were right.

  Chase begins pic.twitter.com/DLPt5w8DG4

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 17, 2023

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  The trades, the FT writes, have left Icahn in a vulnerable position and threaten to undermine his status as one of the most feared activist investors on Wall Street.

  As Icahn’s short bets were margin called and drained billions of dollars from his investment firm, he plowed nearly $4bn of his own money into his publicly listed vehicle, filings show. That injection helped keep the firm’s internally calculated investment portfolio value relatively stable. Incidentally, it was back in 2016 when we first speculated that Icahn would be subject to margin calls and would have to inject fresh liquidity.

  Margin call? ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P.: FILES $1B MIXED SECURITIES SHELF

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 9, 2016

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  Icahn exposed himself to another risk by taking out a margin loan that was first disclosed in early 2022. Hindenburg’s report drew attention to the margin loan from Morgan Stanley, against which Icahn pledged 60% of his stake in Icahn Enterprises as collateral. Hindenburg argued this could lead to his business unravelling if the plunging stock price triggers a margin call that would force Icahn to liquidate some of his stake (which of course is standard operating practice for every margin loan and was used for years as the lynchpin of the bearish thesis against Tesla, much to the disappointment of countless bears who were steamrolled as the stock exploded higher).

  In a statement earlier this month that addressed Hindenburg’s allegations, Icahn Enterprises said Icahn was in “full compliance” with regards to all personal loans and announced a $500mn stock buyback authorisation in a bid to bolster its share price. With regards to its market valuation, the company said that “over time, [our] performance will speak for itself”.

  Icahn told the FT that he had used the margin loan to make additional investments and had billions of dollars of cash outside of his public vehicle. “Over the years I have made a great deal of money with money,” he said. “I like to have a war chest and doing that gave me more of a war chest,” he added, referring to the margin loan.

  Icahn Enterprises has warned that “a prolonged decline” in its stock price “could increase the likelihood of a foreclosure or forced sale” of Icahn’s stake if he was “subject to a ‘margin call’”.

  Ironically, after losing billions on his short bet when the Fed kept propping markets higher, it is a market crash that could now lead to ruin for the famous corporate raider and billionaire.

  Icahn’s bearish bets are the main reason his investment portfolio has lost money in every year since 2014. Over the roughly six year period that he lost $9bn on the short bets, the portfolio made about $6bn from his activist wagers, leaving the vehicle with an overall investment loss of nearly $3bn.

  Don’t fight the Fed, indeed.

  Separately, Icahn Enterprises generated $3.5bn of gains during the period by selling companies it controlled — including casinos and a railcar leasing business — that were held outside the investment portfolio.

  Over the past six years, the NAV of Icahn Enterprises fell from $7.9bn in 2017 to $5.6bn this month, net of fresh injections. That poses a potential problem for Icahn, who has historically taken the large $8 a share annual dividend in stock rather than cash. This has caused the number of outstanding shares to more than double over the roughly six-year period, pushing its net asset value per share down from $33 to roughly $16.

  Retail investors who took their dividends in cash would have received more than $40 a share during the same period.

  As pressure on his firm mounts, Icahn has been forced to rein in his short bets just as some investors fear that a regional banking crisis and the debt ceiling stand-off could result in a sharp market sell-off.

  “I still to some extent believe that this economy is not good and there are going to be problems ahead,” Icahn said. “We are still hedged, but not to the extent we were.”

  Which is precisely why they call it a max pain market: only after the last bear has been carted out feet first, will stocks finally crash.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 21:38

• Imran Khan Is In A Standoff With Police Who Have Surrounded His House
  Imran Khan Is In A Standoff With Police Who Have Surrounded His House

  Former Prime Minister Imran Khan said Thursday that his prior arrest (and release after mass protests and unrest) is part of a broader government crackdown against his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in order to keep him out of power and prevent him from contesting the upcoming general election.

  “All the political parties and the establishment want me removed from the electoral field in an election year,” he told supporters while pointing out that police starting the day prior surrounded his house and blocked roads.

  On Wednesday he had said his arrest was “imminent” – but it appears police have since backed off the “siege” of his house following the threat of clashes with his many supporters that also showed up to the neighborhood.

  

  Police claimed his house was sheltering fugitives who engaged in violent protests last week in the wake of his controversial arrest on on a range of corruption charges.

  This week Pakistan’s military promised swift justice for those who spread mayhem, vandalism and violence against the army and police:

  Rioters and their backers who attacked Pakistan’s state assets and military installations during protests that erupted after the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan will be tried under army laws, the country’s civilian and military leaders have said.

  The decision was announced on Tuesday after a meeting of the National Security Committee chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

  Sharif’s office followed with a statement: “The meeting endorsed to bring the miscreants, the planners who incited for violence and their facilitators to dock by trying them under constitutional provisions of concerned laws, including Pakistan Army Act and Official Secrets Act.”

  “Whoever are the planners and whoever incited these miscreants … they don’t deserve any leniency,” Sharif said. Khan has all along blamed Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir for his arrest and conspiring to keep him out of power.

  Reportedly scenes from outside my house while I was addressing the nation pic.twitter.com/a5vNgwMFLz

  — Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) May 17, 2023

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  At least eight people were killed (some sources say more) and many hundreds wounded in the pro-Khan demonstrations and riots, including some among the army and security services, who were called to restore order in Islamabad. Buildings, including a national radio broadcast center, were burned to the ground, and army bases were also breached in some cases. But the military is now vowing “no more”…

  General Asim Munir has said that “planned and orchestrated tragic incidents” of May 9, the day military installations were attacked, will never be allowed again at any cost, ARY News reported.

  The army chief during his visit to Sialkot Garrison said: “No one will be allowed to disrespect our martyrs and their monuments. They are a source of inspiration and pride for the rank and file of the Armed Forces, Law Enforcement Agencies, Government officials and the people of Pakistan.”

  Meanwhile, here’s where things stand Thursday regarding the showdown outside Khan’s residence, according to regional media:

  Pakistani police kept up their siege around the home of Imran Khan as a 24-hour deadline given to the former PM to hand over suspects ‘sheltered inside’ expired on Thursday afternoon. The siege and the authorities’ demand for the suspects, wanted in violent protests over Khan’s recent detention, has angered the former prime minister’s supporters and is raising concerns about more clashes between them and the security forces.

  Imran Khan was freed from custody over the weekend and returned to his home in an upscale district of Lahore. Dozens of his supporters have been staying there with him, along with private guards. Police, who on Wednesday surrounded the residence, say they want 40 suspects handed over. The ultimatum for Khan ends at 2 p.m. local time.

  When the illegal caretaker Punjab govt announced that 40 terrorists were hiding in my house. Should they not have named them?

  The reason they didn’t was because what they were planning was to bring 30-40 people with them and then accuse me for harboring terrorists just like last…

  — Imran Khan (@ImranKhanPTI) May 18, 2023

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  If Khan is arrested again, and this remains a likely scenario, the country will ignite again – given tensions continue to be at boiling point over Khan’s fate, and anti-government unrest has continued in some locations.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 21:20

• The Numbers Are In On How Biden-Era Funding Is Skewing Scientific Research Ever-Wokeward
  The Numbers Are In On How Biden-Era Funding Is Skewing Scientific Research Ever-Wokeward

  Authored by Steve Miller via RealClear Wire,

  While pushing record spending for research and development, the Biden administration is working not just to advance science but also progressive ideology. In line with the administration’s “whole of government” commitment to diversity, equity, and inclusion, recent grants and requests for proposals from the National Science Foundation encompass research that: 

  • Examines how artificial intelligence may exhibit bias against “disadvantaged groups.”  

  • Looks at the negative experiences of minorities studying engineering and finds ways to create a culture that makes “diversity, equity, and inclusion a priority in the engineering enterprise.”  

  • Creates “equitable mathematics” by exploring how math instruction “may serve to marginalize students.”

  

  Critics, including some scientists, claim such projects are outside the scope of the National Science Foundation, whose $10 billion annual budget is one of the government’s prime mechanisms for supporting basic research in the non-medical sciences. Through 11,000 awards each year to academic and corporate researchers, the NSF sets the agenda for inquiry in a wide variety of fields including computer science, environmental science, mathematics, engineering, and the social and psychological sciences. 

  “People should realize that [we] are paying tax money to fund science that should be going to help improve people’s lives,” said Leif Rasmussen, a research Ph.D. student at Northwestern University who has analyzed NSF research grant funding in a white paper titled, “Increasing Politicization and Homogeneity in Scientific Funding.”  

  “That money isn’t always going to that [and] is instead pushing an agenda in which people have to use the right words,” Rasmussen adds.  

  His research shows that the emergence of politically driven science did not begin with the Biden administration. He found that 3% of successfully executed NSF grants in 1990 included indicative terms such as “equity,” “inclusion,” or “diversity.” In 2020, such words appeared in 30% of grants. And the number rose to 36% of all executed grants in 2021, the first year of the Biden administration and the last year he has numbers for. 

  “These types of grants claim diversity is inherently beneficial to scientific progress, but ironically, that statement has not come anywhere close to being validated scientifically,” Rasmussen added in an email. He noted that the “NSF reviews are conducted by a community of academic scientists and so the community is still responsible for the ideological turn.” 

  An NSF spokeswoman, Martha Vilarchao Klinck, defended the foundation’s DEI efforts.  

  “For more than two decades, NSF has been engaged in a concerted effort to address racial disparity,” she said in an email. “NSF’s extensive portfolio of funded activities aimed at broadening participation in STEM [science, technology, engineering, and math] provides a strong foundation for such efforts. We continue to work with the STEM community, government agencies and other stakeholders to better understand the barriers and how best to support efforts to increase diversity, equity, and inclusion in STEM.” 

  The increasing politicization of NSF grants echoes the embrace of progressive ideology across the sciences, including the medical sector,  a focus of earlier RealClearInvestigations reporting. 

  Many medical schools now require a DEI statement from applicants, and some course studies begin with the preconception of implicit bias in the healthcare system. That assumption is embedded in grants from the National Institutes of Health, the primary source of federal funding.  

  “There is plenty of research that can no longer get funded by the NIH due to political correctness,” said Michael Bailey, a professor of psychology at Northwestern University. Sexuality, for example, is very difficult to research objectively, as progressive definitions blur distinctions between male and female. 

  “Both political sides have been less concerned about the truth over the years, but these days, the left is far more deranged and destructive than the right,” Bailey said. “And that doesn’t mean it can’t go the other way at some point.”   

  Among the aims of NSF funding and programs is a social goal that goes beyond increasing scientific knowledge: boosting the participation of minorities and women in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics – an endeavor the federal government has spent millions of dollars pursuing since the early 80s, when encouraging girls and young women in the STEM disciplines was the focus.  

  Government-funded research for science has long been considered the most objective way to learn about the world and its workings. In the past, private funding sources have delivered results influenced by outside interests.

  In 1953, under increasing scrutiny for the alleged link between tobacco and cancer, the tobacco industry funded studies that, it insisted, showed the cancer link was tenuous. In 1967, the sugar industry did the same thing as public health officials probed the link between sugar and heart disease. Both industries were skewered publicly and legally for their financial connection to the studies, which were later discredited.  

  In today’s echoes of the tobacco and sugar industries, publicly funded research derives results favorable to supporters ranging from top-notch medical schools to the federal government to political advocates. Research that aligns with a political stance is celebrated as “the science” for validating activist claims of existential threats from a climate crisis or the contested benefits of “gender-affirming” care. Such research is often rooted in assertions of systemic or institutional “racism” espoused mostly by progressives.  

  A RealClearInvestigations review of advertised research grants and funded projects over the past three decades finds that while purely scientific research continues, ideology continues a steady advance into many programs. The Biden administration has issued two executive orders, part of its “whole of government” approach to addressing self-defined inequities in federal government programs. Both ordered federal agencies to advance plans to address “underserved” communities, and both assume entrenched racial bias in the federal system. 

  The policies extend across the federal government’s spectrum, touching scientific research administrated by all executive agencies.  

  For research pitches to the federal Bureau of Land Management, the project seeking funding “must assist BLM in meeting … one of the following priorities of the Biden-Harris Administration,” the grant notice states, listing Biden’s executive orders, including addressing climate change, advancing racial equity, and employing union labor. 

  “These academic forms of reparations are a good glimpse of what priorities are,” said John Sailer, a fellow at the National Association of Scholars, a conservative advocacy group. “They see race as a frontier to be transformed and utilized as a tool for their social goal.” 

  The NSF funds many studies regarding climate change, and almost all assume it is manmade and requires vigorous action to address. Duke University, for example, has issued a “climate commitment” to “address the climate crisis by creating sustainable and equitable solutions.” The North Carolina school today is offering a number of NSF-funded grants in keeping with its platform, including proposed research that will “contribute equitable solutions to climate change mitigation” – linking the research funding to carrying out work that supports the university’s climate concerns. 

  There is notable pushback. While meteorology and other topics related to the climate are worthy research pursuits, the research “should not push climate change” with a foregone conclusion, said John Staddon, professor emeritus of psychology at Duke University and author of “Science in an Age of Unreason,” which examines how social causes have impacted science. “Yet the university will push faculty members to get research in that area.” 

  In an email, Duke research spokesman Karl Bates said, “I’ve been writing about the scientific findings and trends since 1990 and it’s very real. Any controversy … is manufactured. I’m confident I speak for the university when I say we find these ‘teach both sides’ arguments about climate to be unpersuasive.” 

  Critics argue that the grants approved only tell part of the story of social justice diktats in research: There is the research not executed because it does not align with the prevailing narrative. Studies of correlations between race and IQ, for example, are nearly verboten. 

  “Most science is boring and people don’t get emotional about talking about protein folding or battery efficiency, and that allows science to progress,” said Stephen Hsu, who was forced out of his job as senior vice president for research and innovation at Michigan State University in 2020 after he commented on research regarding natural intelligence and the possibility of biological traits in populations. “When you get into these areas that are emotionally charged, all bets are off and you can have one paradigm dominate, and that field doesn’t make any progress.” 

  Hsu, who remains a professor at MSU, said funding for research on differences in natural intelligence among populations “is sensitive … no one can get money to study the genetic basis for intelligence.” 

  While the science research system worked relatively well for decades, “scientists believe they are intellectually independent, and they can be,” said J. Scott Turner, a biologist and emeritus professor of biology with the State University of New York in Syracuse. “Now, when this funding is overseen by certain entities, they want certain results,” he said.  

  This equation, Turner said, also casts doubt on what should be scientifically derived information.  

  “It’s a political game now. The death of science should be a source of skepticism. A reality check on government programs is now gone, it’s just not there anymore.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 21:00

• Biden's Suitcase-Stealing They/Them Nuke Waste Klepto Guru Arrested For Being "Fugitive From Justice"
  Biden’s Suitcase-Stealing They/Them Nuke Waste Klepto Guru Arrested For Being “Fugitive From Justice”

  And so, the career arc of Biden’s colorful (literally) “nuclear waste guru”, Sam Brinton, has come to an end after the the bisexual, suitcase stealing they/them was arrested Wednesday night for reportedly being a “fugitive from justice,” according to law enforcement officials.

  

  Brinton’s “career” at Biden’s Department of Energy as a nuclear waste official, crashed after he was accused twice last year of stealing airport luggage, then found guilty in both incidents. Of course, he was not given jail time in either case; one can only imagine a Soros-judge was involved in both.

  According to official records reviewed by Fox News Digital, Brinton was taken into custody on Wednesday night at his home in Rockville, Md., in suburban Washington, D.C.

  While authorities did not provide further details about the arrest, they said it was led by Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority Police, the lead law enforcement agency for both Washington, D.C., area airports, and that Brinton is being held on a no-bond status awaiting an extradition hearing.

  It wasn’t immediately clear if he was held in a men’s or women’s holding area.

  Police charged Brinton in October 2022 with stealing a traveler’s baggage worth $2,325 from the suitcase carousel at the Minneapolis-St. Paul Airport after flying in from Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Washington on Sept. 16. Three months later, in December 2022, Las Vegas prosecutors charged Brinton in connection with the July 6 theft of a suitcase with a total estimated worth of $3,670 at Harry Reid International Airport, in Las Vegas, Nevada.

  My name is Asyakhamsin tanzanian fashion designer based in houston Texas USA 🇺🇸 I lost my bag 2018 in DCA recently I heard the news on @FoxNews about @sambrinton luggage issue surprisingly I found his images wore my custom made outfitswhich was in the lost bag on 2018 🥹 pic.twitter.com/lJwLHtMJlz

  — asyakhamsin (@asyakhamsin1) February 20, 2023

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  Brinton faced up to 15 years total for the thefts.

  The Energy Department announced in December 2022  that Brinton had departed the agency but decline to further comment, Fox Digital also reported.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 20:40

• Gaetz Demands DOJ Indict FBI Agents Following Durham Report
  Gaetz Demands DOJ Indict FBI Agents Following Durham Report

  Authored by Lorenz Duchamps via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) has suggested that the FBI should be defunded and its agents criminally indicted after special counsel John Durham concluded this week that the federal agency should have never launched an investigation into whether former President Donald Trump colluded with Russia during the 2016 election.

  

  Durham’s 300-plus page report (pdf) asserted that the FBI rushed into the probe without having any evidence that officials from the Trump campaign had contacted any Russian intelligence officer.

  During an interview with Newsmax on Monday, Gaetz accused the FBI and Department of Justice (DOJ) of being politically biased in the probe, alleging the agency has become “the enforcement wing of the Democratic Party to play offense against Trump,” describing its actions as “very ugly for the future of a democracy where the people make the choices.”

  “The report takes great lengths to point out the number of times where Trump was targeted in a way no other American would be,” Gaetz said. “In essence, the FBI has now become a disinformation and election interference enterprise here in our country. It’s very damning for them, the Steele Dossier was nonsense, the probable cause standard even to originate an investigation … was never met, and you had a secret court that was lied to.”

  “I think we have to deauthorize, defang, and defund many of these authorities and entities and different task forces that actually converted the just and righteous act of protecting our country with the desire to have a particular political candidate win or lose,” he added.

  The Durham report is an absolutely DAMNING treatise on the weaponization of the FBI against President Trump.

  This should be a clarion call for legislative reform. We need to defund and deauthorize government entities that are converted from the just cause of defending our nation… pic.twitter.com/peaeMcVr6q

  — Rep. Matt Gaetz (@RepMattGaetz) May 16, 2023

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  The congressman also argued that if the probe had been driven by a GOP candidate—or an operation to help a Republican candidate’s campaign—it wouldn’t have concluded with just a report, but with “real significant indictments.”

  Gaetz went on to say that he’s disappointed the report did not recommend any indictments in addition to the three people Durham already prosecuted, pointing out he believes more people should have been prosecuted as a result of the investigation.

  “The only indictment that Durham is able to cite here is the indictment of Kevin Clinesmith,” Gaetz said, referring to the former FBI lawyer who doctored an email to state that a one-time Trump campaign associate was not a CIA asset when the associate actually was. Clinesmith has since pleaded guilty and received probation.

  “And guess what? He’s already back to practicing law,” he added. “Got his law license back, and practicing law here in D.C. now. Insufficient.”

  FBI Responds

  The FBI responded to the Durham report hours after the DOJ published it on its website, acknowledging “missteps” in its 2016–2017 investigation into the alleged Trump-Russia ties.

  “The conduct in 2016 and 2017 that Special Counsel Durham examined was the reason that current FBI leadership already implemented dozens of corrective actions, which have now been in place for some time,” the FBI wrote in a statement. “Had those reforms been in place in 2016, the missteps identified in the report could have been prevented.”

  Meanwhile, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) echoed similar sentiments during an interview on Fox News’ “Sean Hannity” Monday night, agreeing with Gaetz that the FBI’s funding should be cut, adding he believes there are “double standards” in the DOJ’s treatment of Republicans and Democrats.

  “The only way we can hold them accountable is to go after one thing that everybody cares about—the money,” Jordan said. “We have to look at the power of the purse if we’re ever going to get control of these agencies, who did this not just once, but multiple times,” he added.

  In a post on Twitter Monday, Gaetz said the Durham report is an “absolutely DAMNING treatise on the weaponization” of federal agencies against Trump, adding Monday’s development “should be a clarion call for legislative reform.”

  “In a proper world, Republicans and Democrats would be able to work together on this,” Gaetz said. “It wasn’t that long ago that the FBI was a right-wing organization, weaponized against civil rights leaders and others. And it was wrong then, and it’s wrong now.”

  Trump also seized on the report in a series of posts on Truth Social this week, stating the investigative report indicates the federal government launched a coordinated effort to interfere with the 2016 election.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 20:20

• Fertility App Premom Shared Sensitive User Data With Chinese Firms
  Fertility App Premom Shared Sensitive User Data With Chinese Firms

  Digital healthcare on smartphones certainly benefits users, though preserving privacy isn’t one of them.

  A popular fertility-tracking app called “Premom” (owned by Easy Healthcare) is under fire for sharing users’ health information with third-party advertisers, according to a new Federal Trade Commission complaint. 

  The ovulation tracker, menstrual calendar, and fertility tool allegedly shared sensitive user data with third parties through software development kits that were integrated into the app.

  In August 2020, the International Digital Accountability Council found Premom shared user location data and device identifiers with two Chinese companies without user consent. 

  “Ultimately, this could allow these third parties to associate these fertility and pregnancy Custom App Events to a specific individual,” the FTC complaint said.  

  Tech Crunch dives deeper into identifying who those specific Chinese companies were:

  Easy Healthcare also allegedly shared users’ sensitive identifiable data with two China-based mobile analytics companies known for “suspect privacy practices,” according to a statement by Connecticut attorney general William Tong. Data including IMEI numbers — strings of numbers tied to individual devices — and precise geolocation data were transferred to analytics firms Jiguang and Umeng between 2018 and 2020, according to the FTC.

  The FTC alleges that the company did so knowing that Jiguang and Umeng could use this data for their own business purposes or could transfer the data to additional third parties, and says Easy Healthcare only stopped sharing this data when Google notified the app maker in 2020 that the transfer of data to Umeng violated its Google Play Store policies.

  Samuel Levine, director of the FTC’s Bureau of Consumer Protection, said the health app “broke its promises and compromised consumers’ privacy.” 

  The Department of Justice settled with Easy Healthcare for $100,000 for violating the FTC’s Health Breach Notification Rule. And the app company also settled with Connecticut, Oregon, and the District of Columbia for $100,000. 

  This brings us to the popular video app TikTok, owned-by Chinese firm ByteDance Ltd., with over 150 million users in America. Can you imagine the volume of personal data potentially being transmitted back to China?

  *   *   *

  Here’s the FTC complaint. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 20:00

• Post-9/11 US Conflicts Killed Over 4.5 Million People: Study
  Post-9/11 US Conflicts Killed Over 4.5 Million People: Study

  Authored by Brett Wilkins via Common Dreams,

  The post-9/11 War on Terror may have caused at least 4.5 million deaths in around half a dozen countries, according to a report published Monday by the preeminent academic institution studying the costs, casualties, and consequences of a war in which U.S. bombs and bullets are still killing and wounding people in multiple nations.

  The new report from the Costs of War Project at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs shows “how death outlives war” by examining people killed indirectly by the War on Terror in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen.

  

  “In a place like Afghanistan, the pressing question is whether any death can today be considered unrelated to war,” Stephanie Savell, Costs of War co-director and author of the report, said in a statement. “Wars often kill far more people indirectly than in direct combat, particularly young children.”

  The publication “reviews the latest research to examine the causal pathways that have led to an estimated 3.6-3.7 million indirect deaths in post-9/11 war zones,” while “the total death toll in these war zones could be at least 4.5-4.6 million and counting, though the precise mortality figure remains unknown.”

  As The Washington Post — which first reported on the analysis — details:

  “Since 2010, a team of 50 scholars, legal experts, human rights practitioners, and physicians participating in the Costs of War project have kept their own calculations. According to their latest assessment, more than 906,000 people, including 387,000 civilians, died directly from post-9/11 wars. Another 38 million people have been displaced or made refugees. The U.S. federal government, meanwhile, has spent over $8 trillion on these wars, the research suggests.

  But Savell said the research indicates that exponentially more people, especially children and the most impoverished and marginalized populations, have been killed by the effects of war—mounting poverty, food insecurity, environmental contamination, the ongoing trauma of violence, and the destruction of health and public infrastructure, along with private property and means of livelihood.”

  According to the report, “The large majority of indirect war deaths occur due to malnutrition, pregnancy and birth-related problems, and many illnesses including infectious diseases and noncommunicable diseases like cancer.”

  Factoring in Costs of War estimates of direct deaths of between 906,000 – 937,000 people in these war zones brings the total of estimated deaths to at least 4.5-4.6 million and counting. [5/11] https://t.co/3m3JrCzqkR pic.twitter.com/JD6LVh6Sae

  — The Costs of War Project (@CostsOfWar) May 15, 2023

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  One 2012 study found that more than half of the babies born in the Iraqi city of Fallujah between 2007 and 2010 had birth defects. Among the pregnant woman surveyed in the study, more than 45 percent experienced miscarriages in the two-year period following the 2004 U.S. assaults on Fallujah. Geiger counter readings of depleted uranium-contaminated sites in densely populated Iraqi urban areas have consistently shown radiation levels that are 1,000 to 1,900 times higher than normal.

  The study also found that some deaths “also result from injuries due to war’s destruction of infrastructure such as traffic signals and from reverberating trauma and interpersonal violence.”

  Savell said that “warring parties who damage infrastructure with an impact on population health have a moral responsibility to provide quick and effective assistance and repairs.”

  Today @costsofwar published my paper on indirect deaths in the post-9/11 wars, which at least in the U.S. is a supremely underacknowledged issue. Bottom line: the post-9/11 wars continue to kill massively. [1/https://t.co/pBtvjLNmG4

  — Stephanie Savell (@stephsavell) May 15, 2023

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  “The United States government, while not solely responsible for the damage, has a significant obligation to invest in humanitarian assistance and reconstruction in post-9/11 war zones,” she added. “The U.S. government could do far more than it currently is to act on this responsibility.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 19:40

• Jim Reid: If You Saw This Presentation Centuries In The Future – What Do You Think Happens Next?
  Jim Reid: If You Saw This Presentation Centuries In The Future – What Do You Think Happens Next?

  In a note to clients, the team at Deutsche Bank led by veteran strategist Jim Reid paints an ominous outlook for the US economy. The trillion-dollar likely swirling around Reid’s head revolves around the potential consequences of the most aggressive hiking cycle in history, specifically whether it could trigger a hard economic landing. In his report titled “A Time Capsule For The Future,” he uses an array of macro data over decades, pointing out what contributed to past downturns and asking whether today is similar and if history repeats.  

  Reid provides nearly two centuries of US money supply (year-on-year % change) data that shows the fastest collapse since the 1930s. This is a major red flag for the economy and capital markets, and past collapses have led to panics, recessions, and depressions. 

  

  With the money supply shrinking year-on-year since December, another alarming development has occurred: the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank. Even though JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently said, “This part of the crisis is over,” Reid warned the regional banking fiasco “risks credit contraction going forward.” 

  

  Moving onto real estate, Reid asks: “Will we look back on this chart and conclude it was obvious that big falls were still ahead of us in terms of house prices?” 

  

  And readers remember we’ve pointed out (read: here) how the regional bank turmoil has spread to the commercial real estate sector. Reid tends to agree with our view of the CRE downturn here as lending standards tighten. 

  

  Considering the contraction in money supply, turmoil in the banking sector, and looming problems in the residential and commercial real estate markets, Reid shows DB’s recession model predicts a 100% chance of a recession within the next 12 months. 

  

  He draws a horizontal line across a chart showing that the Fed’s number of hikes over the last 12 months has only occurred twice during the previous seven decades, one in the mid-1970s and the other in the early 1980s, leading to recession. 

  

  Then there is the yield curve: the 2s10s has inverted before all of the last 10 US recessions, and it takes 12-18 months for the lag on average, but some cycles take longer….

  

  To simplify, Reid notes the “3-month rule” tightens up the gap between US 2s10s inversion and recession to 8-19 months. That takes us to March ’23 – February ’24. The one exception is the Fed policy error of the mid-1960s.

  

  Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Leading Index continues to slide, one of the longest streaks of decline since ‘Lehman.’ 

  

  As the economic storm gathers, he shows excessive household savings continue to be depleted. There goes the biggest driver of the US economy in the coming quarters (unless consumers continue to leverage up with credit card debt). 

  

  So with that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the key “lag” indicators, starting with the US Senior Loan Officers Survey (SLOOS), which, as we noted recently, has painted a “dire picture” for the economy as “Loan Standards Are Approaching Record Tightness As Loan Demand Plummets,” and which leads GDP by two quarters…

  

  … and leads to a surge in high yield defaults by around three quarters…

  

  “Banks’ willingness to lend to consumers never been this weak without it leading to an imminent recession…,” Reid noted. 

  

  History has shown us that interest rate hiking cycles end with a bang. 

  

  Separately, interest rate swaps are pricing a terminal rate of around 500bps with 2.5 cuts through January 2024. 

  

  “Remember that the Fed have never begun to cut rates with unemployment this low… let alone when core CPI is simultaneously running above 5%,” Reid pointed out. 

  

  Returning to capital markets, he said, “Given that a US recession is yet to start it’s not unreasonable to suggest the bottom is still to come assuming we’re right on the 2023 recession call..” 

  

  Adding a mild recession in line with the 1960s and 70s could still be bad for asset prices. 

  

  Valuations are still at lofty levels. 

  

  Given all of this, the biggest question is whether anyone in the Biden admin realizes that economic storm clouds are gathering ahead of the 2024 election year. 

  There is much more in the full must-read presentation from Jim Reid, available to pro subscribers in the usual place.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 19:20

• US Supreme Court Allows Illinois Gun Control Law To Remain In Effect
  US Supreme Court Allows Illinois Gun Control Law To Remain In Effect

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The US Supreme Court on Wednesday sided with the state of Illinois over a strict new gun control law, denying an emergency request for an injunction.

  

  The measure, which bans what the state considers “assault weapons,” will remain intact while the case brought by an Illinois gun store owner works its way through lower courts. The owner filed a petition with the high court to block the ban on a wide variety of firearms as well as “large capacity” magazines.

  No explanation was given for the denial by Justice Amy Coney Barrett.

  The  case is currently in front of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 7th Circuit, which is based in Chicago. The decision is likely to be appealed regardless of the outcome.

  More viaThe Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  In a separate case, a federal judge blocked the gun law. However, the 7th Circuit Court has placed that decision on hold in the meantime.

  The 7th Circuit appeals court also has expedited consideration of at least five different cases challenging the Illinois law. Meanwhile, the state Supreme Court is considering a similar lawsuit against the measure.

  Earlier this year, the state enacted the “Protect Illinois Communities Act” that bars the purchase, sale, delivery, and manufacture of so-called assault weapons and magazines that hold more than 10 rounds. It specifically named AK-47-style rifles and AR-15-style rifles as “assault weapons” under the law, which also requires those who previously purchased semi-automatic rifles to register their ownership with Illinois State Police.

  According to an FAQ of the law, “No, Illinois residents cannot purchase an AR-15 or assault weapon beginning January 11, 2023, unless subject to one of the narrow exemptions.” The FAQ also states that the law bans “a magazine, belt, drum, feed strip, or similar device that has a capacity of, or that can be readily restored or converted to accept, more than 10 rounds of ammunition for long guns and more than 15 rounds of ammunition for handguns; or any combination of parts from which a device described can be assembled.”

  Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a Democrat, signed the bill into law.

  “For the past four years, my administration and my colleagues in the State Capitol have been battling the powerful forces of the NRA to enshrine the strongest and most effective gun violence legislation that we possibly can,” he said. “I couldn’t be prouder to say that we got it done. And we will keep fighting—bill by bill, vote by vote, and protest by protest—to ensure that future generations only hear about massacres like Highland Park, Sandy Hook, and Uvalde in their textbooks.”

  Legal Challenges

  Second Amendment advocate groups have repeatedly criticized the law as unconstitutional, and gun rights activists, including Robert Bevis, a gun store owner in Naperville, filed lawsuits to block the state law as well as a similar local ordinance that was passed in the city of Highland Park. Those laws were sparked following last July’s mass shooting at a Highland Park Fourth of July parade that left multiple people dead.

  “The challenged laws ban arms commonly possessed by law-abiding citizens for lawful purposes. Heller’s central holding is that a categorical ban on arms held by law-abiding citizens is unconstitutional,” his lawyers wrote to the 7th Circuit judges last month, referring to a 2008 ruling by the Supreme Court on the landmark District of Columbia v. Heller case, in which the high court found that a District law regulating gun ownership to be unconstitutional.

  Contending that Bevis’s constitutional rights were violated, his lawyers added: “One would suppose that the district court would apply the Heller test or, failing that, at least explain why it believed the test is not applicable. The district court did neither. It erred when it simply ignored Heller’s central holding. Nowhere in its opinion does it apply, or even acknowledge, Heller’s holding in this regard.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 19:00

• "I've Been Here": Feinstein Seems Unaware Of Months-Long Senate Absence
  “I’ve Been Here”: Feinstein Seems Unaware Of Months-Long Senate Absence

  California Senator Dianne Feinstein returned to Washington last week after a nearly three-month absence as she battled a stubborn case of shingles. However, in a Tuesday conversation with reporters, the 89-year-old appeared unaware that she’d been in California from February to May.  

  As she was being rolled off an elevator via wheelchair, Slate‘s Jim Newell asked how she was feeling. “Oh, I’m feeling fine,” Feinstein replied. “I have a problem with the leg.” Asked what was wrong with it, Feinstein said, “Well, nothing that’s anyone concern but mine.”

  

  That’s when things took an unsettling turn, according to Newell as well as the Los Angeles Times‘ Benjamin Oreskes. When another reporter asked how colleagues had been responding to her return to the Senate, Feinstein said, “No, I haven’t been gone…You should follow the—I haven’t been gone. I’ve been working.”

  Charitably exploring the best possible interpretation, the reporter asked, “You’ve been working from home…is what you’re saying?” 

  “No,” replied an increasingly irritated Feinstein. “I’ve been here. I’ve been voting. Please. Either know or don’t know.” Feinstein missed more than 90 floor votes while she recuperated in San Francisco. 

  After deflecting a question about Democratic House reps calling for her resignation, she was wheeled off before she could do more damage. 

  After 3 months of being absent from Congress, 89 year old Dianne Feinstein tells a reporter that she was never missing, and that she has been in D.C. voting.
  Then she gets rude and says “either you know or you don’t know!”.

  She’s no longer fit to serve.#Retire pic.twitter.com/0QAFysE6B7

  — Justin Theory (@realJustATheory) May 17, 2023

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  Tuesday’s incident is just the latest of many illustrations of Feinstein’s apparent deepening senility. As we wrote upon her return to Washington, “Feinstein may have beaten shingles, but her declining mental health is arguably of even greater concern.”

  Her mental decline has been chronicled by the most liberal of major newspapers, with the New York Times and San Francisco Chronicle last year publishing insider accounts of Feinstein being unable to remember names, meetings and phone conversations. The Times described her as sometimes “walk[ing] around in a state of befuddlement.” 

  An unnamed Democratic legislator told the Times that, in a meeting with Feinstein in February 2022, the legislator had to keep reintroducing him- or herself, and repeatedly help her find her purse, as well as answering identical small-talk queries over and over. 

  The oldest member of Congress, Feinstein will turn 90 on June 22. In February of this year, she announced that she will not be running for re-election — and just a few hours later, appeared to be unaware of the historic announcement.  

  Feinstein sits on the Judiciary Committee, which was left with a 10-10 tie during her long absence, thwarting Democratic ambitions to stock federal benches with leftist judges — and prompting California Rep. Ro Khanna and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — both Democrats — to call for her resignation. 

  Feinstein Says A Recent Jedi Attempt On Her Life Has Left Her Scarred And Deformed https://t.co/kgmRQXVUqs pic.twitter.com/BUb2Ptj5ND

  — The Babylon Bee (@TheBabylonBee) May 11, 2023

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  Asked Wednesday if Feinstein is equipped to carry out her duties, Democrat and Judiciary Chairman Dick Durbin told CNN, “I can’t be the judge of that…she has to make that decision for herself and her family as to going forward.” Fellow Dem Sheldon Whitehouse was blunter, telling Slate‘s Newell, “I’m gonna leave that to the medics.”

  Durbin’s reply assumes Feinstein is capable of making such a decision. That’s a reach, particularly when you consider that a resignation would go against the interests of her handlers who’d surely like to keep their Senate jobs as long as possible.

  For now, Feinstein is still managing to serve the Blue Team’s interest. As Sen. Richard Blumenthal told Slate, “There’s one job that no one else can do for us, which is to vote. And she’s been doing that job in the last few days, and so far as I can tell, she’s been doing well.”

  Senate Democrats be like “there goes Diane Feinstein off to another vote” pic.twitter.com/iK58vJtIIV

  — sockdem (@sock_dem) May 10, 2023

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  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 18:40

• Feds Start Enrolling Volunteers For mRNA Flu Vaccine Trial
  Feds Start Enrolling Volunteers For mRNA Flu Vaccine Trial

  Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Vaccine developers at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) are enrolling healthy adult Americans to test an experimental universal influenza vaccine using mRNA technology.

  

  The Phase 1 trial will be conducted at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, the NIAID said on Monday. Researchers will test the experimental vaccine, dubbed H1ssF-3928 mRNA-LNP, for safety and its ability to induce an immune response.

  For this early-stage trial, the federal research agency is looking for up to 50 healthy volunteers aged 18 through 49. There will be three 10-participant groups receiving 10, 25, and 50 micrograms of the experimental vaccine, respectively. After evaluation of the data to determine an optimum dosage, an additional 10 participants will be administered with the optimum dosage.

  The study also will include a group of participants to receive a currently available flu vaccine that protects against the four most common flu virus strains in circulation.

  The NIAID said it expects to collect all the data needed by March 15, 2024, and conclude the study by Aug. 30, 2024.

  The name H1ssF is an abbreviation of H1 hemagglutinin stabilized stem ferritin, meaning that the vaccine uses the “stem” part of the influenza hemagglutinin protein displayed on the surface of a ferritin nanoparticle as the immunogen. The “stem” remains largely unchanged throughout influenza mutations, as compared to the “head,” which constantly changes as the virus mutates into different strains in a process called “antigenic drift.”

  Most of the body’s immune response to the influenza virus is directed toward the ever-changing “head” of the hemagglutinin protein, and hence seasonal influenza vaccines must be updated each year. NIAID researchers believe that a vaccine that targets the “stem” without the distraction of the “head” could offer stronger and longer-lasting immunity.

  The other part of the experimental vaccine’s name, mRNA-LNP, means that the messenger RNA-encoded immunogen is delivered inside a lipid nanoparticle (LNP). The vaccine doesn’t contain the immunogen, but uses LNP-coated mRNA to instruct the host cells to assemble the immunogenic proteins that can trigger the production of effective antibodies.

  Safety Risks

  The same mRNA technology is used to make both Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines, two of the most administered vaccinations in the world. Despite their widespread use, championed by governments of many countries under the premise that the shots are safe and effective, the mRNA vaccines continue to spur concerns about serious side effects, including a heightened risk of cardiac-related deaths in healthy teenagers and young adults after vaccination.

  Last October, the Florida Department of Health issued a warning against giving young men mRNA COVID shots, citing an analysis (pdf) that found “an 84 percent increase in the relative incidence of cardiac-related death among males 18-39 years old” within 28 days following the jab.

  “With a high level of global immunity to COVID-19, the benefit of vaccination is likely outweighed by this abnormally high risk of cardiac-related death among men in this age group. Non-mRNA vaccines were not found to have these increased risks,” said Dr. Joseph Ladapo, Florida’s surgeon general.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 18:20

• Gunmaker Heckler & Koch Deletes Woke Tweet Rant After Backlash
  Gunmaker Heckler & Koch Deletes Woke Tweet Rant After Backlash

  When will companies take the time to vet their communications departments, especially after the expensive advertising snafu by Bud Light involving the promotion of identity politics? Consumers are growing increasingly fed up with companies championing all things ‘woke’ and are participating in boycotts in response. 

  The latest example is a woman managing German gun manufacturer Heckler & Koch (known for the MP5 submachine gun) who apparently went rogue on the company’s official Twitter account, defending Miller Lite’s woke feminist advert. 

  The PR blunder by H&K has all but been deleted, but Breitbart News found the now-deleted tweets that read:

  “Wow- woke? Allow me to translate: objectifying women was never a good marketing strategy. In the firearms industry, that was a prominent strategy up until recently. Many industries have done that (including beer corps).”

  As an actual woman typing this, I’ll use more words for you to comprehend: using bunnies to sell products is trash marketing. Supporting women by not doing that is good.”

  Breitbart reported it all started when Graham Allen tweeted the controversial Miller Light commercial, expressing the possibility of a ‘Bud Light moment.’

  Allen wrote: 

  “Did NOBODY learn from Bud Light’s COSTLY mistake? Miller Lite just dropped this WOKE advertisement!!! When will these beer companies learn????”

  Did NOBODY learn from Bud Light’s COSTLY mistake?

  Miller Lite just dropped this WOKE advertisement!!!

  When will these beer companies learn???? pic.twitter.com/Zhbja6v77x

  — Graham Allen (@GrahamAllen_1) May 15, 2023

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  Then H&K’s Twitter account responded to Graham Allen with this:

  

  The Germans were very swift and deleted the tweets and released this statement, “H&K does not engage in identity politics. A policy was violated. Changes were made.” 

  The Road Forward. pic.twitter.com/qdMEo3NiWm

  — Heckler & Koch (@HecklerAndKoch) May 17, 2023

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  “Next up is an official apology, but it’s a good start,” TurningPoint USA contributor Lauren Chen tweeted at H&K. 

  Others thanked H&K for “dealing with that nonsense quickly and correctly. This is the way to go.” 

  Thank you for dealing with that nonsense quickly and correctly. This is the way to go.

  — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) May 17, 2023

  Hmmm.

  Was the person running the account that started lecturing everybody fired? I’m curious by what you mean when you say changes were made.

  — Adam Lowisz (@AdamLowisz) May 17, 2023

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  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/18/2023 – 18:00

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