- America's National Security Is Far Worse Off Than Four Years Ago
America’s National Security Is Far Worse Off Than Four Years Ago
Authored by James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer via American Greatness,
Ronald Reagan’s query to the American people in his October 28, 1980, debate with incumbent President Jimmy Carter was so simple and so devastating that it is still employed today: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” While most Americans are far worse off today than they were four years ago, with rising prices, inflation, a hollow economy, and unchecked immigration, so too are the U.S., its allies, and its partner’s national security interests, which are far worse off than they were four years ago.
Four years ago, there was stability in Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific. Now Europe’s “long peace,” that is, no major war in Europe since 1945, has been shattered by Russia’s horrific invasion of Ukraine. This war has resulted in the deaths of over one million humans and the displacement of millions more. The Middle East is roiling with conflict due to Hamas’ October 7, 2023, unprovoked attack on Israel and its consequences—the Iranian-backed Houthis interdiction of international shipping in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, the attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon and ultimately unprecedented attacks from Iran against Israel with drones and missiles. The Indo-Pacific is rife with unrest principally due to the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) hyper-aggression against key U.S. allies and partners like India, Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan, and against the American people themselves.
The cause of this instability is the Biden-Harris administration’s ideological obsession to “manage America’s decline” and the subsequent policies they adopted in the last almost four years. The Biden-Harris administration failed to deter the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This war is a humanitarian nightmare for all concerned; it is a stalemated conventional conflict, evincing an intensity of combat not seen in Europe since 1945. The war also entails the risk of nuclear escalation, the tremendous cost of which the U.S. and its NATO allies would not escape. In addition, this administration has fundamentally failed to support Israel by not holding Iran to account—even worse by providing Tehran the funding to expand their terrorism against Americans.
However, in the pantheon of Biden’s failures, it is towards the PRC that the Biden administration has made its greatest foreign policy fiascos. The Biden-Harris administration has continued the failed “Engagement” policies with the PRC that have aided the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at a time of great peril. The Biden-Harris administration ignores the existential nature of the CCP threat because it seeks to continue the Engagement school of thought through what we call the Biden-Harris administration’s “neo-Engagement” policy.
With the exception of the Trump presidency, Engagement has been the dominant U.S. approach to the PRC since Bill Clinton. It asserts that the PRC is not an existential threat to the U.S. Far from it—the Engagement school contends the Sino-American relationship should be cooperative. Any troubles may be addressed by more cooperation with the PRC and accommodation of the interests of the CCP to sustain that cooperation. In essence, the Engagers are appeasers. Unfortunately, their arguments are ubiquitous and dominate U.S. foreign policy toward the PRC. Engagement dominates Wall Street, foundations, think tanks, universities, media, Silicon Valley, K Street, major law firms, and government. Even after the fiasco of allowing a PRC intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance balloon to fly over the entirety of America and the conga line of Biden-Harris cabinet officials traveling to Beijing to kowtow before Xi Jinping, the nadir was the November 2023 meeting between Biden and Xi near San Francisco. Beyond the obsession by Biden-Harris to resume military-to-military exchanges despite the People’s Liberation Army’s increased threatening behavior, 400 of America’s richest business leaders attended a dinner with the PRC’s dictator—Xi Jinping. These “titans” of America’s economy gave the CCP dictator two standing ovations while Xi explained his vision of tyranny—on American soil—and how the American business elite could help him sustain it.
The failed Biden-Harris neo-Engagement policies have allowed the CCP to escape the costs of its many decades of misrule but also provided the window for the CCP’s hyper-aggression over the last four years. Since assuming office, the Biden-Harris administration has overseen and done nothing as the PRC built over 300 nuclear Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) silos in central and western China, upgraded the submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) aboard their sea-based leg of their triad, expanded their ballistic missile submarine production facilities, and introduced a new nuclear bomber, the H-20. This aircraft very closely resembles the B-2 stealth bomber. Additionally, the Biden-Harris regime has sat by as PLA Air Force H-6 bombers have for the first time flown nuclear bomber profiles with their Russian Long Range Aviation counterparts into the Alaskan Air Defense Identification zone.
By every metric, the CCP is flexing its strategic muscles by expanding its nuclear arsenal and strategic reach. The PRC continues to agress relentlessly against U.S. national security interests. While the pace of their aggression is quickening, the Biden-Harris administration is cutting the size of the Department of Defense. For example, Biden-Harris continues to decommission more warships than it builds, as demonstrated by their Fiscal Year 2025 budget that procures just six warships, the lowest number of any budget submission since 2006.
This degradation of America’s maritime power is especially pernicious as the situation in the South China Sea, near Scarborough Shoal or Sabina Shoal, is dramatically worsening. Likewise, the PLA is increasing its pressure on Taiwan through unceasing operations to prepare for an invasion. In the past month, the PLAAF violated Japanese territorial waters for the first time ever. Moreover, the PLAN and Russian Navy sailed into the Gulf of Alaska, while it has been confirmed that PLA is supplying Russia with military weapons to aid Moscow in its war against Kyiv. There are also credible reports, including from the South Korean Minister of Defense, that the North Koreans are directly aiding the Russian war effort.
In his famous debate with Carter, Reagan also asked Americans if they believed America was as respected and whether America was as strong as four years ago. Once again, the answer to that question today is no. America was far more respected by its foes and was stronger four years ago than today. America was seen by its key allies in Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific as a far better, more reliable, and more confident ally than today. The result is that a Harris presidency would continue these neo-Engagement policies to embolden enemies and continue to punish allies and partners. Only a Trump presidency will end failed policies of neo-Engagement and return the U.S. to the Reaganesque certainty of the previous Cold War that “the U.S. wins, the CCP loses.”
***
James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer are authors of Embracing Communist China: America’s Greatest Strategic Failure. The views expressed are their own.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 23:25 - Which College Degrees Have The Best Return On Investment?
Which College Degrees Have The Best Return On Investment?
Career prospects, and especially expected lifetime salaries, can be a strong motivator or deterrent in pursuing certain college degrees.
Not all degrees guarantee higher lifetime earnings compared to entering the workforce after high school without a degree – as some degrees may end up costing more than their financial benefits.
This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, shows the average return on investment of a degree in the U.S., based on analysis from CollegeNPV of data from the U.S. Department of Education and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The return on investment of a degree is the expected lifetime value of the degree (net of debt) compared to entering the workforce after high school.
STEM Degrees Have The Best Bang For Their Buck
Below, we show the average return on investment of various degrees in the U.S.
Field of Study Average return on investment Engineering $570,616 Computer and Information Sciences $477,229 Mathematics $340,875 Engineering Technicians $311,141 Business $205,191 Architecture $196,711 Nursing and Health Professions $194,756 Physics, Chemistry and Geology $168,822 Social Sciences $118,454 Interdisciplinary Studies $69,656 Biology $63,913 Agriculture $59,556 Area, Ethnic, Cultural, Gender and Group Studies $42,959 Legal Studies $38,999 Natural Resources and Conservation $28,985 Communication and Journalism $28,654 Homeland Security, Law Enforcement and Firefighting $27,284 Foreign Languages $25,750 Public Administration and Social Services $7,787 Philosophy and Religious Studies $6,011 History $4,938 Fitness, Parks and Recreation -$1,078 Liberal Arts and General Studies -$13,337 Psychology -$15,644 Education -$20,075 Family and Human Sciences -$24,540 Communications Technologies -$28,911 English Language -$39,057 Theology -$91,749 Visual and Performing Arts -$104,015 Engineering, computer and information sciences, mathematics, and engineering technician degrees are the most valuable degrees in the U.S. when looking at expected lifetime income minus debt compared to working right after high school without a degree.
As for specific programs, Harvard University’s computer science degree ranks first for ROI, according to CollegeNPV.
Graduates of this program can expect an ROI of over $4 million in their lifetime, with $256,539 in median income and $14,000 in median debt.
On the other end, humanities degrees like visual and performing arts, theology, and English are among the least valuable degrees when looking at lifetime earnings.
With a negative ROI of about $39,000, English language programs have also experienced the greatest decrease in graduates, with 32% fewer students completing these programs compared to 10 years prior.
To learn more about some of the top universities in the U.S., check out this graphic that shows which universities produce the most startup founders.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 23:00 - Baby Bust Will Soon Reshape Public Schools
Baby Bust Will Soon Reshape Public Schools
Authored by Jay Greene via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The most powerful force shaping the future of education is the sharp decline in babies being born in the United States and worldwide. As Americans have fewer children, and fewer children immigrate from abroad, the school-age population will decline dramatically over the next few decades.
John Moore/Getty Images The United States has experienced a baby bust once before in the wake of the baby boom in the 1970s and 1980s, which gives us some idea of what to expect. But unlike the previous baby bust, which was a temporary artifact of the boomers ageing out of school, the upcoming decline in school-age population has no end in sight.
We are about to experience a baby bust on steroids. Public school enrollments reached a peak of 50.8 million in 2019 and are projected to drop below 47 million by 2030. But that’s just the start. This year U.S. fertility rates hit an all-time low. Since the smaller number of children born this year will barely be entering school by 2030, the steep decline in school enrollments will accelerate after 2030.
In 20 states, public school enrollments are projected to fall by more than 10 percent by 2031. Almost all of these states with larger enrollment declines are blue states, with Hawaii, California, New Mexico, and New York leading with drops between 19 and 21 percent.
During the previous baby bust, declining school populations forced districts to close schools and layoff teachers. Job insecurity among teachers caused them to flock to teachers’ unions for protection, transforming them from local organizations concentrated in a few big cities into national political powerhouses.
As the share of the population with children in school declined in the 1970s, property tax revolts arose across the country, most notably with Proposition 13 in California in 1978. With access to local property taxes becoming more constrained, school districts turned to the state and federal governments for funds. The teachers’ unions were able to use their increasing membership and political power to get President Carter to create the Department of Education in 1980, gaining an institutional ally in advocating for increased federal funding.
This shift from local property tax to state and federal sources of school funding was successful in reducing the extent of school closures and teacher layoffs, but it made schools more financially vulnerable to future reductions in enrollment. Unlike local property tax, state and federal money is typically allocated to districts on a per pupil basis. If the number of pupils drops, funding is cut by a commensurate amount.
As school enrollments start to plummet, so will their funding. The various tricks that districts have employed in the past to compensate financially are less available to rescue them. Districts might hope that state governments could significantly increase per pupil funding levels to offset enrollment drops, but state budgets are already stretched thin.
This is especially true as the increasing share of the population over the age of 65 places more demands on states to fund healthcare. Given that the number of voters directly benefiting from government-funded healthcare far exceeds those benefiting from government-funded schools, districts should expect little financial relief from state budgets.
The same dynamics will play out at the federal level. School districts might hope that federal spending could bail them out and could point to the fact that, unlike state budgets, the feds need not balance their budgets. But the inflationary surge following the pandemic impressed upon policymakers that even the federal government has limits on what it can spend. And with healthcare, crumbling infrastructure, and a host of other issues all in line for federal bailouts ahead of education, districts should moderate their expectations for financial relief from the federal government.
With a larger and more sustained drop in enrollments coming and with less opportunity for financial rescue, the school closings and teacher layoffs are likely to be much larger than they were in the 1970s and 1980s. Education colleges will lose even more enrollment than they already have, and many will have to close their doors. Teachers may turn once again to the unions for protection. But unions cannot expand their geographic scope and will experience a drop in membership as the number of teachers declines, resulting in diminished political power.
The birth dearth will also make adopting important reforms of the education system more challenging in some ways. As we clearly saw in Arizona, expanding school choice is made more politically palatable when state governments are flush with cash and when public schools are overcrowded with growing enrollments.
When schools are filled with students, and districts are at least partially held harmless from the loss of funds as enrollment shifts to private schools, the public school establishment doesn’t fight quite as hard to block new competition from private school choice. Going forward, passing new school choice programs will become more difficult as districts become more desperate to keep every student and every dollar those students generate.
Plummeting fertility rates, however, might provide a new argument for states to adopt choice programs. With fewer people being born, many states may experience shortages of labor, especially outside of the sunbelt where populations are already fleeing. Empowering parents to have more options and control over the education of their children may give states a competitive advantage in attracting or retaining those families and their labor.
This competitive pressure to adopt choice programs is becoming stronger as a critical mass of states have already enacted universal private school choice programs in which every child in the state is eligible to direct government funds or subsidies to their preferred educational setting. Once Texas adopts universal school choice, which appears likely to occur next year, almost 40 percent of all students in the country will be eligible for private school choice.
With many red states still gaining population aboard the choice bandwagon, it will be harder for other states to resist adopting similar universal choice programs. Georgia, Idaho, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Wyoming may find it difficult to explain to their voters why they won’t do what Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, and Utah have already done. And once almost 20 red states have embraced universal school choice, purple and blue states will feel enormous pressure to do the same or face even larger migrations of families and labor force from their states to others that do empower families with options for educating their children.
In addition, because private choice programs cost significantly less per pupil than do traditional public schools, state policymakers will find the financial savings very attractive. It will allow them to cover those rising healthcare costs and somewhat increase the per pupil funding for students who remain in public schools.
As the economic historian William Fischel observed in his book “Making the Grade,” the ability of American families to move shaped the initial development of the country’s education system. Educational opportunities were an attractive amenity that lured families to relocate to new communities and increase that area’s tax base.
That was why the Northwest Ordinance of 1787 set aside a parcel of land in each block for development as an endowment for building a local school, enticing families to move West and settle the Northwest Territory. Similarly, local communities added secondary education to their school districts to complete more effectively in luring families to move to their area.
As Fischel explains it, Tiebout choice, or the competitive market of local governments, produced the education system we now have. But existing arrangements are not set in stone and will continue to be reshaped by competition among local governments. Tiebout choice will soon lead policymakers to offer universal private school choice to attract families and their labor to their state. As birth rates plummet, the competition for that labor will grow more intense, increasing the appeal of adopting policies that empower families with educational options.
From the American Institute for Economic Education (AIER)
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 22:35 - Israel Already Requesting A Second THAAD Missile Defense Battery From US
Israel Already Requesting A Second THAAD Missile Defense Battery From US
It was only within the past few days that Israeli leaders confirmed a US-supplied THAAD anti-ballistic missile system has become operational on the ground in Israel. This marked a major development which has effectively put American troops directly in harm’s way at a moment Israel is still readying to retaliate against Iran for the Oct.1st ballistic missile attack.
But just after the arrival of the first THAAD (or Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), the Israeli government is already requesting that a second one be deployed from the US, according to Israel’s Channel 12 on Friday.
Times of Israel notes that “Each battery consists of six truck-mounted launchers, 48 interceptors, radio and radar equipment, and requires 95 soldiers to operate.”
Already some 100 American soldiers are on the ground manning the first THAAD, but a second battery would bring that total to around 200 US soldiers deployed in Israel. There’s as yet been no indication that the Pentagon plans to ship a second battery.
Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh on Tuesday described that “An advance team of military personnel and some of the initial components needed to operate the missile battery arrived in Israel yesterday [Monday], with additional personnel and components scheduled to arrive in the coming days with a goal of making the THAAD fully capable in the near future.”
“This decision was made as part of the broader adjustments the U.S. military has made in recent months to support the defense of Israel and protect Americans from attacks by Iran and Iranian-aligned militias,” she continued.
The White House says it has been briefed by the Netanyahu government on what targets in Iran are expected to be hit, as Israel’s retaliation remains imminent. But it seems Tel Aviv is already begging for more and more equipment and missiles from the Pentagon.
“Israel faces a looming shortage of interceptor missiles as it shores up air defenses to protect the country from attacks by Iran and its proxies, according to industry executives, former military officials and analysts,” FT wrote this week.
“The US is racing to help close gaps in Israel’s protective shield, announcing on Sunday the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile battery, ahead of an expected retaliatory strike from Israel on Iran that risks further regional escalation.”
Israel competing with Zelensky in the “gimme gimme gimme” category. Why can’t we use the missile defense weapons that WE paid for to protect OUR country? https://t.co/aHKdL1ocdY
— Daniel McAdams (@DanielLMcAdams) October 18, 2024
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
One analyst and former US senior defense official, Dana Stroul, was cited in the same report as saying that “Israel’s munitions issue is serious.” Stroul, a pro-Israel and anti-Iran hawk, has described that “If Iran responds to an Israel attack [with a massive air strike campaign], and Hizbollah joins in too, Israel air defenses will be stretched.”
Israel is likely to keep asking for more, and despite billions of dollars already pledged – and based on prior patterns – Washington is likely to oblige… just as it’s been doing for the constant similar requests out of Ukraine.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 22:10 - Why Women Should Vote For Trump
Why Women Should Vote For Trump
Authored by Tiffany Marie Brannon via RealClearPolicy,
Dear fellow women, You are being played…
And falling for this particular confidence scheme won’t just cost you, it’ll cost all of us.
I’m an affluent 30-something divorced, white, childless, American woman with multiple postgraduate degrees, and a busy career. I’ve lived abroad in several metropolitan cities and I own my home. According to every single statistic, I should be a J.D. Vance-loathing single cat lady.
I should also really hate Donald Trump. But I don’t.
Lest we forget, the presidency is not a popularity contest. There seems to be some confusion on that front. You aren’t casting a ballot for Prom Queen, you’re voting for the leader of the free world. It’s why that little thing called the Electoral College exists.
I’ve heard other women say they’re voting for Vice President Kamala Harris because “she’s more iconic” than Trump. My response: what about inflation, foreign or domestic policy, war, immigration, education, human trafficking, or any other serious issue?
The truth is, if you actually voted for real pro-women policies, you’d vote for Trump.
And the Left knows this.
That’s why the Democratic Party has spent untold millions making Abortion the #1 issue for women. White women alone make up 40% of the electoral vote and 89 million American women total are registered to vote, making us the largest voting bloc in the nation. In 2020, swing states like Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania saw women vote at record rates, with Biden winning 57% of female voters.
We hold serious power. Hence why Democrats want to convince women that the unrestricted right to abortion is more important than the right to vote, freedom of speech, or any other right you can think of. Make abortion equalitarian with being female and tell them they are physically under attack by the GOP. Oh, and also by the Supreme Court. We can’t forget them. Democrats have done such a good job with this indoctrination that, in a recent viral video, young women said they would rather have the right to an abortion over the right to vote. What are they teaching girls in schools these days?
Yet even if you’re a passionately pro-choice voter, it’s silly to consider abortion as the critical issue at stake in this election. After all, Trump has already said he doesn’t favor a national abortion ban and that he would veto any such bill. According to KFF, only 14% of American women – or 7% of the American population – have had an abortion at some point in their life, 21% being Black, 19% Hispanic, and 11% White women.
In contrast, 100% of Americans – women included – have to buy food, pay medical bills, and want to know their tax dollars are going to help them in an emergency. Just ask the victims of Hurricane Helene as they were offered a measly $750 after FEMA gave billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars away to noncitizens and foreign countries under the Biden Harris Administration.
We’ve been inundated with the message that voting for an objectively unpopular and recognized failure of a Vice President because she loves abortion, possesses a female reproductive system, and is of minority ethnicity is more important than anything else that matters.
Ladies – don’t be so easily fooled.
Trump’s record speaks for itself and is deserving of closer attention by female voters. The former president approved the largest paid parental leave program in history, guaranteeing 12 weeks of paid leave. He directed more than $200 million per year to technology education grants for women and programs that encouraged STEM careers. He founded the Women’s Global Development and Prosperity Initiative, the first-ever government program focused on advancing women’s “full and free participation” in the global economy. Trump also shone a spotlight on under-the-radar domestic women’s issues, establishing a task force for missing and murdered Native American women. Under the Trump administration, women’s unemployment reached the lowest level in 67 years and women received over 70% of new jobs.
Last I checked, those policies affect far more than 14% of the female population.
Even Trump recognizes this. He recently observed, “Women want to have safety. They want to have a strong military. They want to have a strong police force… They want to be in their house and they want to be safe. … I hope they like my personality… But to me, it wouldn’t be very important, the personality.”
He’s right. This is not a personality contest. It’s not about which candidate is more “iconic.” It is our duty as citizens to vote for the best policies, laws, and chances for us and our loved ones to thrive for years to come. Women voters are no exception to this rule.
So, from one would-be single cat lady to a nation of others, consider this: voting for the rich white man in this election doesn’t make you evil.
It makes you wise.
Tiffany Marie Brannon is a political strategist and the writer and host of the TMB Problems podcast.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 21:45 - Communism Failure: Cuba Paralyzed By Massive Power Blackout
Communism Failure: Cuba Paralyzed By Massive Power Blackout
In a post on X, Cuba’s Ministry of Mines and Energy announced that the nation’s largest power plant has been “completely disconnected,” sparking widespread blackouts across the island. While unsurprising for the Communist-run island nation in the northern Caribbean Sea, it’s a stark warning for all Americans about how Kamala Harris’ proposed Communist policies could rapidly push the US towards third-world conditions if elected next month. We’re halfway there with ten-plus million unvetted illegal aliens roaming America’s city streets.
“Following the unexpected departure of the Antonio Guiteras CTE, the National Electricity System was completely disconnected at 11 a.m. today. The Unión Eléctrica is working on its restoration,” the Ministry of Mines and Energy wrote on X around 1235 ET.
Bloomberg noted that hours before the unexpected failure at the 330-megawatt capacity CTE Antonio Guiteras power plant, the Communist government revealed that it would “paralyze” top industries and divert power for residential customers.
“But the frequency and duration of blackouts has been on the rise, as Cuba’s aging power generators break down and the cash-strapped government struggles to import enough fuel,” the media outlet noted.
Cybersecurity firm Cloudflare showed that internet activity on the island has also plunged due to power outages.
Cuba’s communist regime is undoubtedly at its weakest point in decades. Constant power blackouts and food shortages are merely signs that centrally planned economies don’t function efficiently.
Yet, while Cuba implodes, Kamala Harris has pitched American voters that her proposed Communist-style price control strategy will make them better off if she is elected.
Sorry Democrats. Americans don’t want Chinese-style Communism. Innovation and freedom are okay with them.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 21:20 - 5 Key Exercises To Keep Your 40s From Feeling Like Middle Age
5 Key Exercises To Keep Your 40s From Feeling Like Middle Age
Authored by Kevin Shelley via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Welcome to middle age. Sounds strange, doesn’t it? People in their 40s are still quite young, in their prime working years, and possess the blush of youth that society cherishes.
Justin Lambert/Getty Images Your 40s are often a time of peaks: Your career history may be established, your family may be maturing, and you are still full of energy and vitality. However, you aren’t officially “young” anymore. The advancement into your middle ages introduces you to a time when your muscles become harder to maintain without dedicated exercise and when sedentary behavior comes at a higher price.
But don’t let this make you feel old, whippersnapper, because you aren’t. Besides, you can continue to stay strong and energetic with just a little exercise, and I’ve provided some great ones for you to get started.
The key here is maintaining muscle mass and flexibility to counteract the beginning of muscle decline and decreasing joint mobility. At this stage in life, managing stress and finding time to maintain healthy habits amid career and family responsibilities is crucial. You’ll be pleasantly surprised at how little time it can take.
I suggest establishing a workout routine with your family and friends to increase socialization and maximize exercise consistency. It may also be helpful to consult your physician to ensure that these exercises are right for you.
5 Key Exercises for Your 40s
1. Plank
The plank is an excellent, classic core strengthening exercise that can be performed nearly anywhere. It’s challenging at first, but progress comes quickly.
Step 1: Assume a prone position on the floor, lying with your chest and stomach downward. Rise onto your elbows while keeping your upper arms straight and at shoulder-width, palms on the floor, head up and facing forward, and your back straight (a straight back is critical).
Step 2: Hold this position for as long as you can, up to 1 minute.
Step 3: Try doing 3 sets for 1 minute each, taking 1 minute of rest between each set. Perform 3 rounds of plank , which counts as 3 sets.
Planks are an excellent exercise on their own but are even better paired with the other exercises.
Modification: You can make planks easier by bringing your forearms or knees to the floor.
Dan Skorbach/The Epoch Times 2. Pushups
Pushups are renowned for their ability to provide an excellent workout in a simple, controlled movement.
Step 1: Start on the floor with your feet together, palms flat on the floor, and arms fully extended. This is the classic starting position for pushups.
Step 2: Lower your body by bending your elbows until you’re almost touching the floor. Keep your back and legs straight as you lower yourself.
Step 3: Push yourself back up to the starting position. This counts as 1 repetition. Aim for 3 sets of 10 repetitions, making adjustments as needed.
Modification: To make this exercise easier, you can keep your knees on the floor and limit how far you bend your elbows and lower your body.
Dan Skorbach/The Epoch Times 3. Weighted Squat
Weighted squats target the legs and gluteal muscles and take the standard bodyweight squat up a notch in both difficulty and benefit.
Step 1: Stand with your arms by your sides and your feet approximately body-width apart. Hold 1 to 2 pounds of weight in each hand. Canned goods work well in this role, but feel free to add weight.
Step 2: Start by slowly squatting down until your knees are bent at a 90-degree angle, then slowly return to standing. Take one to two seconds to move in both directions—don’t rush. As you squat, bring your arms from your sides straight out. This helps with balance and adds intensity. While squatting, push your hips back to prevent your knees from moving past your toes. This helps protect your knees from unnecessary strain and ensures proper alignment.
Step 3: Squatting and rising counts as 1 repetition. Try to perform 3 sets of 12 repetitions.
Modification: If squatting to 90 degrees or rising from it is too much, just do what you can at first.
Dan Skorbach/The Epoch Times Read the rest here…
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 20:55 - China's Coal Production Surged in September
China’s Coal Production Surged in September
By Irina Slav of OilPrice.com
Coal production in China rose by 4.4% in the year last month to a total 414.46 million tons, government data showed.
The production rate also rose on the month: the August total stood at 396.55 million tons.
The increase followed the end of safety inspections in coal-producing regions and the return of coal-to-chemicals capacity to normal operation after maintenance, Reuters reported.
“Following the end of maintenance on some coal-based methanol, urea, PVC and other chemical capacity, the capacity utilisation rate has gradually increased,” Reuters quoted analysts with Galaxy Futures, a China-based financial services firm, as saying.
Coal production over the first nine months of the year, however, only increased marginally, by 0.6%, to a total of 3.48 billion tons. The output was no doubt affected by safety probes that resulted in substantial reduction in accidents and deaths in coal mines.
Demand for coal was coming mostly from the power generation sector, where coal continues to be king, and heavy industry. Coal-power generation in China rose by 8.9% in September on an annual basis, reaching 545.1 billion kWh, the state statistics agency said.
China’s coal imports also rose in September, to a total of 47.59 million metric tons of coal, a 13% increase from September 2023. The increase in imports was largely driven by a favorable arbitrage between foreign and domestic supply.
The Asian benchmark of coal prices, at Newcastle in Australia, were falling for most of last month. The lowest level in September, at $136.46 per metric ton on September 23, was a 7% decline from the August high of $147.13 per ton, according to Reuters estimates.
Coal accounts for about 60% of China’s generation, despite a surge in hydropower earlier this year after abundant rainfall, which reduced the share of coal in the country’s energy mix. Natural gas, in contrast, accounts for less than 10% of generation.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 20:30 - The Collapse Of Kamala Harris
The Collapse Of Kamala Harris
Authored by Josh Hammer via American Greatness,
On July 26, in the aftermath of the Democratic Party’s ruthless midsummer coup of their own democratically elected presidential nominee, this column predicted that the elevation of dimwitted cackler-in-chief Kamala Harris to the party’s presidential slot would “spectacularly backfire.” More specifically, I wrote: “Practically, the path to winning 270 Electoral College votes still runs through the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. It is frankly bizarre for Democrats to swap out the man who talks ceaselessly about his hardscrabble Scranton upbringing for a Californian who boasts the most left-wing voting record of any presidential nominee in modern history.”
I’m feeling pretty good these days about that prognosis.
Harris recently campaigned in Erie, Pennsylvania—a crucial regional hub in this election cycle’s most important battleground state. Conspicuously absent from that snoozefest was incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.). Harris tried to pass off the snub as a nothingburger, suggesting that Casey was doing the more important work of knocking on doors and getting out the vote. This doesn’t pass the laugh test. Facing a spirited challenge from Republican hopeful Dave McCormick, Casey has clearly concluded that Harris’ immense Bay Area lefty baggage—her history of endorsing the Green New Deal, a national fracking ban, and crippling electric vehicle mandates—is an electoral albatross around his neck.
It’s tough to blame Casey. Other vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents, such as Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.), reached the same conclusion a while ago. Such a conclusion makes a great deal of sense: A recent Marist national general election poll, for instance, shows Trump up a whopping 10 points on Harris with registered independents. If that margin ends up being anywhere near accurate, it is extraordinarily difficult to see a scenario in which Trump loses.
Harris has recently been engaging in what the psychology profession calls “projection,” ludicrously criticizing Donald Trump for avoiding the media when it was actually Harris who infamously avoided a single one-on-one sit-down interview for weeks on end following the Biden coup. In reality, Trump recently sat down for two interviews with Time magazine, whose owner is a vocal Harris donor. Harris declined a Time interview nonetheless. Prior to this week’s desperate, last-second change of course, which saw her sit down with Fox News’s Bret Baier, Harris had only deigned to sit down with the most obsequious media imaginable.
One can only wonder how bad the Harris-Walz internal polling must be to impel her to ditch the far-left “Call Her Daddy” podcast and the friendly ladies of “The View” for the considerably more mainstream Baier. Desperate times sure call for desperate measures. Democrats routinely blast Republicans as misogynistic, but their own chronic misandry is so bad that Kamala is apparently considering a sit-down with podcast king Joe Rogan, whose own brand of woke-skeptical irreverence sharply clashes with Harris’ identity politics obsessions and overt race-based pandering. The tables sure have turned. Will the last person hanging around Harris-Walz campaign headquarters please turn off the lights?
Snark aside, this race isn’t over yet. But the Harris-Walz camp cannot possibly be feeling too good right now, either.
Democrats have no one to blame but themselves for their predicament. Throughout this interminable campaign season, they have studiously avoided substantive discussion of the four issues that Americans consistently tell pollsters are most important to them this cycle: the economy, inflation, immigration, and crime. Instead, they have repeatedly attempted to shift the electoral terrain back to the few issues that poll in their favor: namely, abortion and the Jan. 6 jamboree at the Capitol. In this, they have completely failed. The American people still care above all about the same four basic quality-of-life issues that they have cared the most about for years now. It is Democrats’ fault that they are so woefully out of touch with the voters’ sentiments on those issues and that the Biden-Harris administration’s track record polls as poorly as it does.
Perhaps if the Harris-Walz ticket does go down in flames, Democrats will pause and take a long, hard look in the mirror. Perhaps they will recognize that promising late-term abortion is a peculiar way to pander to women, that pledging mass amnesty for illegal aliens is a counterproductive way to pander to Hispanics, and that dangling marijuana legalization is an outright offensive way to pander to Blacks. Perhaps. But if history is any indication, they probably won’t.
***
To find out more about Josh Hammer and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 20:05 - For Harris, Pro-Choice Does Not Include Cars And Appliances
For Harris, Pro-Choice Does Not Include Cars And Appliances
Authored by Kenin M. Spivak via RealClearWire,
Kamala Harris wants to deprive Americans of the right to choose cars and household appliances. When she claims, as she did at a rally last week in Michigan, that “I will never tell you what kind of car you have to drive” she is guilty of two of the Democrats’ most reviled offenses, malinformation (failure to contextualize a statement) and misinformation (lying).
Combating climate by changing infrastructure, consumer goods, and lifestyle is one of Harris’s core values. As recently as this year, the Biden-Harris administration continued to issue regulations and battle in court for the right to reduce consumer options for automobiles and home appliances. Harris favors consumers having choices, just so long as those choices are limited to those she pre-approves.
Then Senator Harris co-sponsored the Senate version of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’ Green New Deal. Harris believed that mandating priorities and choices to limit emissions was so important that she advocated ending the filibuster to do so. Harris also co-sponsored the Zero Admissions Vehicles Act to require that all cars be EVs, or otherwise zero-emissions, by 2040. When she ran for president in 2019, she issued a plan to phase out new gas-powered cars even sooner – by 2035.
In April 2023, the Biden-Harris administration proposed rules that would ensure that EVs accounted for about 67 percent of all new car sales by 2032 (just eight years from now). After objections from nearly every sector and region of the country, the EPA issued final rules on March 20 of this year that require from 31 percent to 44 percent of new cars, SUVs, and pickup trucks manufactured in 2027 be EVs, with the final percentage to be based on emissions from other vehicles. The EPA rules require that by 2032, EVs account for at least 56 percent of new car sales, and at least another 13 percent be hybrids, leaving not more than 31% as gas powered.
In 2023, EVs accounted for only 7.6 percent of new car sales. That is because, despite subsidies and massive pressure from government and the Left, consumers dislike EVs. EVs have limited range, particularly in the cold. They take a long time to charge, and it is difficult for those who live in apartments to do so. They are costly. EVs may not even be particularly good for the environment once the electrical grid and generating capacity are expanded to support mandates, and disposal of lithium ion batteries is considered. It also is unlikely the U.S. could have sufficient generating capacity without brownouts, blackouts, and other conservation measures.
EV mandates imperil national security by replacing fossil fuels, in which the U.S. is the world leader, with minerals found in China. China also is the low cost manufacturer of EVs, meaning that EV mandates will send American jobs and profits to China.
Energy expert Mark P. Mills warns that “All the world’s mines, both currently operating and planned, can supply only a small fraction of the… increase in various minerals that will be needed to meet the wildly ambitious EV goals,” while the UN Trade Development Agency advises there will be considerable shortages in lithium, cobalt, and copper if EV requirements are not slowed.
The strong disfavor in which consumers hold EVs is seen in two numbers. As Fortune observed, “no one wants to buy used EVs,” destroying resale value, and second, EVs are the least likely cars to be stolen. Numerous major automobile manufacturers are cutting EV production targets, and earlier this year Hertz announced that it was disposing of a third of its almost new EV fleet. The 2024 Deloitte Global Automotive Consumer Study found that EVs were never very popular among consumers, and familiarity is breeding contempt, with a 9% increase in the popularity of gas powered cars. A Gallup survey in April found that among Democrats who don’t yet own an EV, the percent saying they would never purchase an EV rose 10 points, compared to a year ago.
Harris not only wants to deprive Americans of the opportunity to choose gas-powered cars and most hybrids, but she also supports the Green New Deal’s goal of prohibiting sales of home appliances that do not meet draconian emissions standards. To date, the Biden-Harris administration has sought to take off the market most home dishwashers, heaters, air conditioners, and gas stoves. A federal appeals court struck down the Department of Energy’s action targeting dishwashers.
In May, the House passed the Hands Off Our Home Appliances Act on a bipartisan basis. That bill is intended to restrain the administration from banning home appliances that run on natural gas.
Next time Kamala Harris claims that she won’t tell you what to buy, just keep in mind that she intends to eliminate most options, leaving you with a Hobson’s choice of poorly performing alternatives.
Kenin M. Spivak is founder and chairman of SMI Group LLC, an international consulting firm and investment bank. He is the author of fiction and non-fiction books and a frequent speaker and contributor to media, including The American Mind, National Review, the National Association of Scholars, television, radio, and podcasts.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 19:15 - NATO Membership Or Nuclear Weapons: Zelensky Stuns Allies With Demand
NATO Membership Or Nuclear Weapons: Zelensky Stuns Allies With Demand
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, having received a lackluster response when he pitched his ‘victory plan’ to US officials in Washington last month, now says that Ukraine must either join NATO or obtain nuclear weapons.
He made the ultra provocative comments while speaking before the EU’s European Council in Brussels, where he presented the victory plan before European lawmakers. That’s when he referenced a recent private conversation with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, saying he told Trump that his country needs “some kind of alliance” or be “forced to pursue nuclear weapons.”
“In a conversation with Donald Trump I said – this is our situation: What way out do we have? Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, which for us will be a defense, or we’ll need to have some sort of alliance, besides NATO. But today we know of no other alliance,” Zelensky said.
Zelensky said “in practice, Ukraine is part of NATO.” Image source: NATO “NATO countries today are not at war. NATO countries are not fighting. In NATO countries people are still alive. Thank God. That is why we choose NATO, not nuclear weapons. And Donald Trump heard me. He said you have a just argument,” he continued.
At one point in these comments he referenced this historic Budapest Memorandum, a 1994 agreement where Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear arsenal from Soviet times in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the US, and UK.
He also emphasized in a rhetorical question, “Which nuclear states suffered? None except Ukraine… Who gave up their nuclear weapons? All of them? No. Only Ukraine… Who is fighting today? Ukraine.”
Following the address, Zelensky appeared alongside NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and sought to downplay the nuclear remarks, saying, “We never spoke about … that we are preparing to create nuclear weapons or something like this.”
Russian media also picked up on this moment:
Zelensky himself walked back his earlier comments at a later joint news conference in Brussels with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, saying: “I said I have no alternative except NATO. That was my signal. But we are not building nuclear weapons.”
Meanwhile former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has claimed that Ukraine is working on a dirty bomb. He said the Zelensky government “has everything necessary for that: resources, technology and specialists.”
However, he dismissed the Ukrainian leader’s nuke rhetoric as nonsense, and instead focused his criticisms on the likelier potential to develop a dirty bomb.
“Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, and then it will be a defense for us, or Ukraine will be in NATO. NATO countries are not at war today. All people are alive in NATO countries. And that is why we choose NATO over nuclear weapons.” – President Zelensky. pic.twitter.com/yAv3RoozDi
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) October 17, 2024
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If Kiev pushes this nuclear development line further, it’s likely to find that the US and West will distance themselves from more long-term support, amid accusations that arms and ammo supplies have been dwindling to just a trickle.
Among Zelensky’s main messages to the EU on Thursday was that a “dangerous winter” lies ahead, and therefore more immediate financial and weapons aid is urgent. “We did our homework,” Zelensky said of efforts to prepare for the winter months, at a moment Russia is gaining ground in the east.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 18:55 - Pro-Crypto Orgs Dominate Megadonors To US Presidential Election
Pro-Crypto Orgs Dominate Megadonors To US Presidential Election
As the 2024 election approaches, organizations are pouring millions of dollars in to support their party of choice, or in some cases, bipartisan groups that bolster their industry.
Using data from the Federal Election Commission for the period January 1, 2023 to August 20, 2024, The Washington Post compiled the 50 top organization donors and where they spent their money. This chart, via Visual Capitalist’s Julie Peasley, maps the top 10.
Megadonors Supporting Bipartisan Groups
Crypto companies Coinbase and Ripple gave the majority of their donations to Fairshake, a super political action committee (PAC) that supports campaigns of crypto-friendly congressional candidates. Andreessen Horowitz, a venture capital firm, also supported Fairshake.
Contributions from these three megadonors totaled $180.1 million.
Megadonors Supporting Partisan Groups
The majority of the donations went to partisan groups.
The largest contributors to Republican organizations include the Empower Parents PAC and Koch Industries. The notable donations made by these firms went to Never Back Down Inc. ($82.5 million from Empower Parents PAC), Americans for Prosperity Action, Congressional Leadership Fund, and Senate Leadership Fund.
Conversely, the remaining five of the top 10 megadonors supported Democratic groups. The most significant recipients were Democracy PAC, which received $60.0 million from Fund for Policy Reform, and Future Forward PAC, which received $55.9 million from Future Forward USA Action.
If you found this interesting, check out this visualization that looks at the U.S.’s most trusted sources for government information.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 18:50 - Gold: The "Everything Hedge"
Gold: The “Everything Hedge”
Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,
Goodbye Digital, Hello Physical
Is the election over already?
Sure, Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5. But the election is happening in real-time and will mostly be over by the end of this week because of early voting, mail-in ballots, drop boxes and ballot harvesting.
These votes won’t be counted until Election Day, but they are being cast now, so hopefully somebody will be watching this time.
It goes state by state, so different states have different laws, obviously. But in many states, the voting has already begun. In many cases, it was Oct. 11. Other states opened up on Oct. 15.
But the point is a lot of the voting has already happened, and a lot more is going to happen during this week.
So the election will be over before Election Day. We won’t know the results until Nov. 5, but the election’s very largely over in the middle of October. (That’s why the “October surprise” of past election cycles is obsolete.)
Polls Pointing to Trump
This timing is another reason why I believe Donald Trump will win this election. Polling has swung to the Trump camp in the past few weeks. This momentum has come at the right time as early voting began in critical battleground states.
But once voters have cast their votes and a winner is declared next month, the election will not be over. Why? Because the Democrats have another lawfare trick up their sleeves in anticipation of a Trump victory.
But let’s assume for the moment that Trump wins the election and actually takes office in January. What market sectors should do well under a second Trump administration?
Here are some of the sectors that will benefit with a Trump victory in November:
- Oil and natural gas drilling, production and refining
- Mining (gold, silver, copper, lithium)
- Defense (especially in contractors with good research and development programs. We need new technology, not just more of the same weapons)
- Automobile manufacturing focused more on internal-combustion engines rather than electric vehicles.
The Return of the Physical
I would also look at sectors that benefit from lower oil and gas prices including trucking and airlines.
Trump’s agenda will incentivize billions of dollars of investments in U.S. energy and manufacturing jobs. He’ll make domestic oil drilling and refining a top priority which will provide America with energy independence. This will also benefit companies (and provide more jobs) in the energy sector.
He’ll also eliminate the Green New Scam by reducing spending on wasteful projects like Kamala Harris’ EV mandates. This will allow automakers to shine once more by producing more automobiles with traditional internal-combustion engines.
In short, a second Trump term could ignite a boom in the physical world. This stands in stark contrast to most of the past 15 years, which have seen the domination of investments in the digital, online world.
Since most investors’ portfolios are outweighed with popular, mega-cap technology stocks, few are positioned to profit from this trend. You shouldn’t be one of them.
Refiners, Refiners, Refiners!
Here, my senior analyst, Dan Amoss, lays out the investment case for refiners, which should thrive under a second Trump administration:
One sector you should pay attention to is refiners because U.S. refiners are in a new golden age. Two years ago, you may recall hearing news stories about tight diesel supplies across many areas of the U.S.
The Biden/Harris administration has constantly promised action to “fight” high prices for gasoline and diesel. However, this administration has only made politically expedient, short term-oriented moves like draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The cold, hard reality that green energy advocates need to accept is that the billion-plus fleet of internal-combustion engines around the world will need diesel and gasoline for decades into the future.
Pandering to a political base of radical environmentalists will only result in the loss of political power, whether it’s in the U.S. or Europe.
Until we see more political support to maintain U.S. oil, gas and refining production capacity — and years of catch-up investments are made — we’ll keep bumping up against constraints.
Demand for refined products remains strong despite high prices. Gasoline and diesel prices might seem high, but that’s only because it’s natural to make a mental anchor to super-low prices in 2020 and early 2021.
Why U.S. Refineries Are in a New Golden Age
Hydrogen is a crucial ingredient in the oil refining process. It dilutes the carbon in the end product, which allows for increased production of high-quality fuels. Where do refineries get hydrogen?
They get it from natural gas. Access to lower-cost natural gas is why U.S. refineries will enjoy a huge competitive advantage versus competing refineries in Europe and Asia.
Natural gas prices in Europe have cooled off over the winter as demand has slowed. In recent years, Europe has enjoyed some of the warmest winters in memory. But it won’t always be unseasonably warm.
Another surge in natural gas prices will remind investors that it will be difficult to profitably refine crude in Europe. The continent may see more refinery shutdowns in the years ahead.
If so, it will rely more on imported products from geographies that have been investing in refineries, including the Middle East. Mothballed European refineries act to tighten refined product supply, which boosts profits at U.S. refiners.
Sanctions on Russian refined products have tightened refined product supplies — especially distillates (heating oil and diesel). Of course, Russia gets around sanctions by exporting to third parties. But the net effect is an increase in miles traveled for the global refined-product tanker fleet.
That means there are more refined products on the water and fewer products sitting in onshore tanks. Tighter onshore supplies keep prices high.
Meanwhile, U.S. refining capacity has been in a downtrend since COVID. So even if demand for gasoline and diesel falls in a recession, tighter refining capacity will cushion the downside risk in refining margins.
We like to recommend cyclical stocks when their sectors have been underinvesting. Refining has been underinvesting for several years, so it’s a good time to own refiners. The mid-2000s was a golden age for U.S. refiners. Profits were high and consistent, and refining stocks left the S&P 500 in the dust. Now we’re looking at another golden age.
Gold: The “Everything Hedge”
Returning to the election, Trump is in a good position to win. Still, the uncertainty factor and element of surprise make it too soon to issue a final prediction. And if the Democrats have their way, Trump could be in for a battle to take office even if he wins. So there’s still a lot of uncertainty.
Markets hate uncertainty. That’s why volatility will be high for the next several weeks in several sectors of the market.
It’s a perfect scenario for owning gold. I call gold the “everything hedge.” It hedges you against political uncertainty, stock market collapse, geopolitical risk, social unrest and an attack on the U.S. dollar. So gold serves all those purposes.
That’s why I recommend 10% of your investable assets be allocated to gold. It’s excellent insurance that’ll give you peace of mind in uncertain times.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 18:25 - Oh, 'Bamacare! Visualizing Forty Years Of Health Insurance Cost Inflation
Oh, ‘Bamacare! Visualizing Forty Years Of Health Insurance Cost Inflation
The Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) now covers forty years worth of data for how Americans households spend money.
That data includes how much the average “consumer unit” surveyed by the U.S. Census Bureau spends on health insurance, which like many other things in the economy, has seen significant cost inflation over the past four decades.
The following chart, via Political Calculations blog, shows how that cost has changed from 1984, the first year for the CEX, through 2023, the latest, whose data was just released last month.
As you’ll see, over the past 40 years, there has been one major factor that has altered the trajectory for how much American households/consumer units pay on average for health insurance coverage.
Back in 1984, the first year for the CEX, American household consumer units paid an average of $370 for health insurance.
That figure grew steadily over the following years and by 2000, the average cost of health insurance for a U.S. household has risen to $980.
From 2000 through 2010, the average cost of health insurance grew faster, reaching $1,826 by 2010.
Had the 2000 through 2010 growth trend continued, we estimate the average amount American households would pay for health insurance in 2023 would be $2,927.
But it didn’t, thanks to the passage of the Affordable Care Act, which was signed into law in 2010.
It was implemented over several years, going into full effect in 2014.
The claimed goal of the law, as suggested by its name, was to make health insurance more affordable for Americans.
In 2023, the average cost of health insurance paid by American households has more than doubled what it was in 2010.
At an average $4,049 per household, this expense is more than 38% higher than the trend that existed in the decade before the Affordable Care Act became law.
The chart also indicates the cost “curve” for health insurance has bent upward since 2021, which has inflated more quickly over the last few years following 2020’s coronavirus pandemic.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 18:00 - Gmail Users Warned About New Account Takeover Scam: Here's What To Look For
Gmail Users Warned About New Account Takeover Scam: Here’s What To Look For
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A security researcher and a technology startup CEO are warning that some Gmail users could fall prey to a sophisticated, AI-based scam that could lead to their accounts being taken over.
A Google gmail app on a screen in a stock photo. Shutterstock Garry Tan, chief executive of prominent tech-oriented venture capital firm Ycombinator, wrote on X late last week that there is a “pretty elaborate” phishing scam that uses an AI-generated voice.
The scammers “[claim] to be Google Support (caller ID matches, but is not verified),” he wrote in an Oct. 10 post that he termed a “public service announcement.”
“DO NOT CLICK YES ON THIS DIALOG—You will be phished.
“They claim to be checking that you are alive and that they should disregard a death certificate filed that claims a family member is recovering your account. It’s a pretty elaborate ploy to get you to allow password recovery.”
IT consultant Sam Mitrovic, in a blog post last month, wrote of a similar scam attempt targeting Gmail accounts and also using an AI-generated voice.
“The scams are getting increasingly sophisticated, more convincing and are deployed at ever larger scale,” Mitrovic wrote in the post. “People are busy and this scam sounded and looked legitimate enough that I would give them an A for their effort. Many people are likely to fall for it.”
According to the post, Mitrovic said he received a notification to approve an attempt to recover a Gmail account, which he ultimately rejected. He then received a phone call about 40 minutes later with a caller ID as “Google Sydney” and rejected it as well.
“Exactly a week later,” he said, “more or less exactly the same time, I received another notification to approve my Gmail account recovery again from the United States.
“You guessed it—about 40 minutes later I receive a call which I pick up this time. It’s an American voice, very polite and professional. The number is Australian. He introduces himself and says that there is suspicious activity on my account.”
The person on the other line then asked if Mitrovic was traveling, to which he replied he was not, according to his account. The person then asked if Mitrovic was in Germany, to which he also said no.
Mitrovic said he found the caller’s number was an official one that was listed under Google Australia’s IT support page, adding that he asked for a confirmation email, and the sender address also appeared to be an official account used by Google’s team.
“In the background, I can hear someone typing on the keyboard and throughout the call there is some background noise reminiscent of a call centre. He tells me that he has sent the email. After a few moments, the email arrives and at a first glance the email looks legit—the sender is from a Google domain,” he wrote.
But the researcher noted that “spoofing an email address is easy and I notice that the To field contains an email address cleverly named GoogleMail at InternalCaseTracking dot com (non-Google domain).”
“The caller said, Hello, I ignored it then about 10 seconds later, then said Hello again,” he said, adding that at that moment, he realized the voice was AI-generated, “as the pronunciation and spacing were too perfect.”
Mitrovic wrote that he hung up and called the number back. He then received a message that said, “This is Google Maps, we are currently unable to take your call.”
The researcher said he wasn’t the only one who appeared to have been almost scammed, finding others who wrote that they were targeted by a similar scheme.
Public service announcement: You should be aware of a pretty elaborate phishing scam using AI voice that claims to be Google Support (caller ID matches, but is not verified)
DO NOT CLICK YES ON THIS DIALOG— You will be phished
They claim to be checking that you are alive and… pic.twitter.com/60zeuS2lL8
— Garry Tan (@garrytan) October 10, 2024
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“There are many tools to fight the scammers, however, at an individual level the best tool is still vigilance, doing the basic checks as above or seeking assistance from someone you trust,” Mitrovic wrote.
According to the blog post, the researcher said there were several hints to suggest it may have been an attempt to take over his Google or Gmail account.
Mitrovic noted that telltale signs of a scam include that one, he received account recovery messages that he did not initiate; two, it was a phone call, as Google does not call users unless they have a Google Business Profile; and three, the email he received had an address “not connected to a Google domain.” Additionally, the email header showed “how the email was spoofed,” and a “reverse number search showed others who received the same scam call,” he said.
“Despite many red flags upon closer inspection, this call seemed legitimate enough to trick many people,” he wrote. “My guess is that their conversion rate from calls answered would be relatively high.”
The Epoch Times contacted Google for comment about Mitrovic’s and Tan’s warnings but received no response by press time.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 17:40 - New Claims That 10,000 North Korean Troops Are Being Sent To Fight Ukraine
New Claims That 10,000 North Korean Troops Are Being Sent To Fight Ukraine
At this point it has become clear that Zelensky is trying to scare and blackmail the West into ramping up support to Ukraine, which includes a push allow NATO membership, and with loose talk of seeking to acquire nuclear weapons to boot.
Part of the fearmongering has also featured Zelensky’s insistence that a global coalition of enemies is now fighting Kiev. “The coalition of criminals along with Putin already includes North Korea,” Zelensky told his parliament in a speech this week. “Everyone sees the Iranian regime’s assistance to Putin, and also China’s cooperation with Russia.”
The next day, Thursday, Zelensky was in Brussels where he informed EU officials that North Korea is amassing a large amount of troops in Russia, readying them to fight in Ukraine.
“We know that there are 10,000 soldiers of North Korea, that they are preparing to send, fight against us,” he said in a briefing. This includes “land forces, other tactical personnel” and framed it as “the first step to a world war.”
“Because of the gap in mobilization, because of lots of Russian losses, and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is afraid of mobilisation very much . . . that is why he is trying to involve other participants in this war,” he added.
But as Financial Times has pointed out, Western intelligence finds these claims dubious:
Military analysts and Nato officials have cast doubt on the accuracy of reports that North Korean troops are involved in combat in eastern Ukraine. Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte said on Wednesday that the defence alliance had no “definitive” information on this matter.
The White House said on Tuesday it could not independently confirm the reports of North Korean troops fighting on behalf of Russia but “those reports are concerning to us”, according to National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby.
On Friday, South Korean intelligence (the NIS) sought to vouch for Zelensky’s claims, saying it believes up to 12,000 North Korean troops are mustering in Russia, and that at least 1,500 have already arrived.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has highlighted the report Friday, issuing a call for international community must respond with “all available means”.
If indeed there were a surge of North Korean troops of this size into Eastern Europe, there would likely be photographic evidence, or at least leaked images of some kind. Pro-Kiev accounts have offered the following unverified images, sources and date unclear…
This is reportedly how North Korean soldiers are outfitted in Russian gear.
According to reports, this is the Sergievsky training ground in Russia’s Far East.
Soldiers from North Korea are fighting in Europe against a European country.
How will Europe react? https://t.co/IgoPAqqCOo pic.twitter.com/iMfAGZorEM— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 18, 2024
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If true this would mark a major escalation of N.Korea’s involvement. “More North Korean troops could be deployed in the war,” Seoul had previously warned this much. But the West wouldn’t be able to do much, having already put fairly maximum sanctions on both Russia and North Korea. It could be another dangerous sign that the Ukraine war is getting more and more internationalized.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 17:20 - Did CDC Officials Mislead The Public About COVID Vaccine Efficacy? Rep. Massie Says "Yes"
Did CDC Officials Mislead The Public About COVID Vaccine Efficacy? Rep. Massie Says “Yes”
When Congressman Thomas Massie (R-KY) contacted officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in December of 2020, he wanted to know if taking the newly released Covid vaccine would benefit him, since he’d already contracted the illness.
After reading the scientific studies himself, and seeing no benefit, Massie contacted the CDC to learn why they were putting out incorrect information which claimed that their studies showed that the Covid vaccine does provide a benefit to those who have previously had Covid.
Massie says those secretly recorded conversations with CDC officials in December of 2020 show that they were lying about their Pfizer Covid vaccine trial data.
In December of 2020, I caught CDC lying about Pfizer COVID vaccine trial data. I recorded phone conversations with CDC where they admitted I was right. My late wife Rhonda suggested I give the tapes to @SharylAttkisson. I did and Sharyl exposed CDC. Watch:pic.twitter.com/apWAVJqcdv
— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) October 16, 2024
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In those phone calls, Massie says CDC officials were caught deliberately downplaying the effectiveness of natural immunity while pushing for Covid-19 vaccinations for everyone, regardless of prior infection.
According to Attkisson, in the recordings, CDC officials thanked Massie for finding the mistake in their studies and admitted that the claims of vaccine efficacy for the previously infected wasn’t true, yet they pushed back on correcting the falsehood, saying it would confuse the public.
Attkisson says, the very next day, those same officials who had admitted their mistake regarding the vaccine’s effectiveness to Massie nevertheless conducted a webinar for doctors that repeated the same misinformation.
In the recording, Massie expresses concern that continuing to encourage previously infected people with natural immunity to get the vaccine, which was in short supply, could prevent others who were at greater risk from Covid from having access to the vaccine.
In a call with CDC’s Washington D.C. Director Anstis Brand, Massie says, “If there’s a “they” who is refusing to fix something that is factually and provably wrong, I want to know who “they” is. Because this is going to result and is already resulting in misallocation of the vaccine.”
Brand tells him that she’ll have to look into it and get back to him.
In another call with the CDC’s Dr. Sara Oliver, Massie points out the error in which the study erroneously claims that the vaccine is efficacious for those with prior infection and he asks to get it corrected.
Dr. Oliver says admits that Massie is correct but says that the CDC still is recommending that previously infected individuals get the vaccine, saying “We wouldn’t want to put out that if you’ve had Covid before, you shouldn’t get the vaccine.”
Massie’s recorded calls with CDC officials clearly show the agency was pushing vaccination even for those who likely didn’t need it due to natural immunity.
These revelations appear to vindicate those who expressed worries that U.S health officials were being driven by an agenda to promote vaccines rather than by honest science.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 17:00 - US Banks Suffer Biggest Weekly Deposit Outflow Since SVB Crisis
US Banks Suffer Biggest Weekly Deposit Outflow Since SVB Crisis
After the massive deposit inflows the prior week, US banks saw total deposits plunge in the week-ending 10/09 (latest data released today), down a stunning $69BN (on a seasonally-adjusted basis), erasing the prior two weeks deposit inflows…
Source: Bloomberg
On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, banks also deposit outflows ($59.5BN)…
Source: Bloomberg
Additionally, for the first time in four weeks, money market funds saw (admittedly small) outflows this week (-$6.5BN), taking them just off record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
That is only the second weekly outflow from MM funds in the last three months… and the outflow was all institutional (with retail funds continuing to see inflows)…
Source: Bloomberg
Excluding foreign deposits, the US domestic bank deposit outflows were considerably worse, down $85BN (NSA) and $88BN (SA)…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the biggest weekly SA domestic deposit outflow since the SVB crisis in March 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
As a reminder, its tax-filing extension deadline time, which we’re sure explains some of this. However, this is the largest mid-October deposit outflow since at least the GFC.
Outflows from Large Banks (-$81BN SA and -$85BN NSA) dominated small inflow for Small Banks (+$3.4BN SA and +$0.03BN NSA).
The Fed’s bank bailout facility continued to shrink last week (down $2BN), really getting back to immediate SVB crisis loan levels (having erased all the arbitrage-driven surge in the blue box)…
Source: Bloomberg
As might be expected with the large deposit drawdown, loan volumes shrank dramatically at Large Banks (and rose modestly at Small Banks)
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the gap between bank reserves at The Fed and US equity mareket cap continues to widen…
…will that relationship ever recouple?
So, all eyes next week on deposit flows to see if they normalize after tax-day.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 16:40 - The Three Layers Of Culpability
The Three Layers Of Culpability
Authored by James Howard Kunstler,
“The migrant crisis has been the first issue to truly evocatively make obvious that something extremely dark and sinister is happening to the country.”
– Simplicius on Substack
The Great Fright among the elite of the party ruling our country steals across the land chillingly now from sea to shining sea – as if all those ghouls, werewolves, zombies, and tormented wraiths assembled in the front yard Halloween displays send up one mighty wail of despair: Donald Trump will seek revenge against his enemies if you elect him! they scream into the pale moonlight.
Well, he ought to, of course, and remember: they are your enemies, too – the FBI thugs battering down your doors at five in the morning, the malicious US attorneys manufacturing phony felonies, the Soros-owned DAs and party-owned judges, and the thousands of spooks from agencies both known and unheard-of surveilling your every move, every purchase, every journey, every thought. Consider that it is not whether Mr. Trump might seek revenge but whether justice, and the mental health of the nation, require an accounting for the real crimes of actual persons against the people of America lo these years of the Woke Jacobin Inquisition.
Finally, as the days dwindle down to November 5, you understand exactly what motivates the three layers of evil heaping America with malice and punishment.
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Layer one: the officers of the political establishment, a.k.a., “the blob” or Deep State, both current and emeritus. You know now that they are motived to stay out of courts-of-law (and, ultimately, prison). Figures such as John Brennan, Merrick Garland, Lisa Monaco, Chris Wray, Anthony Fauci, Alejandro Mayorkas, Barack Obama, and many more, exude culpability for doing real harm to US citizens. They do not want to do time. As Dr. Johnson famously said: “When a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.” They see Donald Trump’s poll number go hockey stick and they tremble in their Beltway mansions. On the Kubler-Ross transect of grief, they are just now wavering between the stages of anger and bargaining.
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Second layer: the lawfare lawyer gang deployed to keep the blob safe from investigation and prosecution: Marc Elias, (the mail-in ballot fraud genius), Norm Eisen, Andrew Weissmann, Mary McCord (authors of every get-Trump legal brief), and many others who work with them, are motivated by the gigantic fees they command from the Democratic National Committee and other cut-out orgs that funnel payments to them. The Elias Law Group alone is rumored to have raked-in millions from one client, the Kamala Harris campaign. This is apart from whatever lawyerly zeal they exercise so enjoyably in their blood-lust for Mr. Trump and his associates. Remember: Jacobins are sadists who derive pleasure from cruelly punishing their adversaries. It probably motivates them more than the money involved, since ambitious Beltway lawyers can always and easily make bundles of money from the most mundane services to the blob.
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Third Layer: the news media. The motives of these birds are the flimsiest: social status and professional stature. They operate within a self-referential reward bubble that provides psychological nourishment as long as they go along with the mumurations of their flock. They will be easiest to turn around as the national mood turns (and is now turning, sharply). A year from now, don’t be surprised if they treat Mr. Trump as a revered hero who saved the country from the malignant blob — and pretend that they never thought otherwise. By then, it will be too late for some, of course, and actual figures such as Lawrence O’Donnell and Rachel Maddow of MSNBC, Maggie Haberman of The New York Times, NBC’s Nicolle Wallace, will be drowning in their own slime trails.
Now, whether Mr. Trump would actively seek revenge is a thing apart from the paranoia of his adversaries.
On the one hand, he seems aware that his own place in history will rest not on looking backward to the harms inflicted on him as the sacrificial goat for the sins of “the deplorables” – the many Lawfare cases against him will likely be reversed in higher courts, or just dropped – but on attending to and fixing the many obvious, reality-based problems afflicting the nation: inflation, the horrendous debt, the libido for war induced by military contractors and neocons, the return of productive industry and jobs that pay living wages, sealing the border and expelling dangerous aliens, and stopping the race-and-gender hustles, to name a few things.
In 2016, Mr. Trump floated the idea of defaulting on US debt, or negotiating its terms. Sounded outrageous to some at the time. Now, with the BRICs org meeting to de-dollarize their trade arrangements, might be a ripe time to make such a move. He can reverse “Joe Biden’s” 2021 reversal of his border policies by executive order on day one, put a stop to the “sanctuary city” idiocy, and end all cash incentives to illegals currently inside the USA. He can negotiate a reasonable end to the Ukraine conflict that leaves that country neutral, as everyone knows it should be. He can incentivize the return of factory production with US companies. He knows (and you know) that there is a huge agenda of practical problems to face. Mr. Trump does not need the aggravation of stirring up further grievance and resentment among the defeated Wokesters. He needs them to get aboard a national reclamation project, get their minds right, and lend a hand.
Speaking of hands, on the other hand, remember that the signal weakness of Julius Caesar was pardoning his enemies. Since Mr. Trump is best known as a deal-maker, I believe he will seek to make a deal with the blob. The deal will be for them to cooperate in the prosecution of certain key figures in exchange for not demolishing their agencies altogether. Some of these people — Garland, Mayorkas, Fauci, Brennan, and Wray, for examples — really do need to do some ‘splainin’ in front of juries. That may be sufficient to clarify for history some of the damage the Woke insanity did to our country. We can’t pretend that nothing happened. Most of all, Mr. Trump has to defeat the sick belief that anything goes and nothing matters.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 10/18/2024 – 16:20 -
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