Apr 01

Today’s News 1st April 2024

  • Why Is NATO And The Kiev Regime Terrified Of Russia's 'Zircon' Hypersonic Missile?
    Why Is NATO And The Kiev Regime Terrified Of Russia’s ‘Zircon’ Hypersonic Missile?

    Authored by Drago Bosnic via infobrics.org,

    Even before the horrendous Crocus City Hall terrorist attack, the Russian military’s long-range strike capabilities were sending shivers down the spines of NATO aggressors and their Neo-Nazi junta puppets. Weapons such as the 3M22 “Zircon”, a scramjet-powered hypersonic cruise missile, have been inducted into service in recent years and are now also being transferred to land-based platforms, specifically the K300P “Bastion-P” coastal defense system. With a 1500 km range (perhaps even more) and Mach 9 speed, the “Zircon” is over 3 times faster and its range is at least double that of the P-800 “Oniks” supersonic missiles originally used by the aforementioned platform, further enhancing Russia’s already unprecedented long-range strike capabilities (to both the Neo-Nazi junta’s and NATO’s horror, as previously mentioned).

    This has become even more noticeable in the aftermath of the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack, as the Russian military is now hunting for the organizers, both the Kiev regime’s intelligence services and their NATO overlords. With such a range (at least 1500 km or possibly even beyond 2000 km), the usage of “Zircon” allows Moscow to target any location on the territory of Ukraine. However, it should be noted that the Eurasian giant always had this ability. The difference now is that it can do so much faster and with far less warning time. The usage of air-launched and ground-based hypersonic missile systems such as the 9-A-7660 “Kinzhal” and “Iskander-M” is still very much relevant, as evidenced by the latest elimination of high-ranking NATO officers (although their deaths will surely be attributed to “sudden” skiing accidents).

    However, the “Iskander-M” can use a massive 700 kg HE warhead that is best used against frontline targets and higher concentrations of troops in the rear. Virtually the same goes for much faster “Kinzhal” missiles. In addition, these can sometimes be detected by NATO ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) assets, particularly airborne and space-based, giving the Neo-Nazi junta officers and their foreign “advisers” just enough time to run away (albeit not much and certainly not always). The launch of an “Iskander” can be detected by early warning systems, while ISR can pick up the MiG-31K/I deployment. This information can be relayed to the Kiev regime or any NATO personnel on the ground. On the other hand, detecting a scramjet-powered “Zircon” can be a lot more problematic.

    Then the numbers come into play:

     – Kiev: 3 minutes 30 seconds;

     – Lvov: 5 minutes 20 seconds;

     – Dnepropetrovsk: 2 minutes 30 seconds;

     – Vinnitsa: 3 minutes 40 seconds;

     – Kharkov: less than 4 minutes;

     – Odessa: less than 1 minute.

    Imagine being an officer of the SBU, GUR (Neo-Nazi junta’s military intelligence) or some of the NATO occupation forces. You’re stationed in a building, living in the illusion that you’re safe when the Russian SVR or GRU learns about your location and relays this information to units in Crimea who then fire a “Zircon” at that building. This is how much time you’d have before impact. However, let’s consider the best-case scenario and imagine that NATO ISR assets detect the missile immediately after launch (which is extremely improbable). This is how much time you’d have to evacuate. Is it possible to run away in time? Certainly, but that doesn’t mean it’s very likely. On the contrary, the sheer panic resulting from a warning would surely make the evacuation a lot more difficult. The same goes for the “Kinzhal” and “Iskander” missile launches.

    However, the primary reason why the “Zircon” is a lot more dangerous for high-value targets (HVTs) in the rear is because it has a much smaller warhead (around 300 kg), meaning that the Russian military is more likely to use it in long-range strikes. Firing an “Iskander” or “Kinzhal” could cause unacceptable damage to purely civilian infrastructure in the surrounding areas, both due to their larger and more destructive warheads, particularly in the case of “Kinzhal”, with the speed also giving it massive kinetic energy. That’s why these more destructive missile systems are far likelier to be used against purely military targets such as large troop concentrations and important hostile equipment, particularly SAM (surface-to-air missile) systems and MLRS (multiple launch rocket systems) known to use PGMs (precision-guided munitions), etc.

    On the other hand, precisely because of the large-scale deployment of “Zircon” missiles, Russia has more options to strike decision-making centers in Ukraine. This explains the panic in NATO and the Pentagon, which are now in a dilemma about how to ensure the safety of their occupation forces in Ukraine. I suggest everyone watch closely for news about the “sudden deaths” of NATO officers in various “freak accidents” in the coming days and weeks. We might soon learn about American, Polish or some other NATO majors, colonels and even generals “mysteriously” and “inexplicably” dying while skiing in the Alps, falling out of helicopters, choking on croissants while having breakfast or suffocating when their throats swell from hot coffee, etc. Still, the Kiev regime insists there’s nothing to worry about, as it can “shoot down anything”.

    Namely, according to their latest claims, they’ve “shot down at least two ‘Zircon’ missiles“. Expectedly, the Neo-Nazi junta insists they’ve achieved this with “US-made missile defense systems over Kyiv, on March 25”. I presume we can proceed now that you’re done laughing and catching your breath. The report never named any system specifically, but it can be assumed that future claims will attribute the supposed “kill” to the atrociously overhyped “Patriot” SAM that has been failing everywhere for the last 30+ years, even against rather primitive ballistic missiles, but is “suddenly so successful” against the latest hypersonic ones. In addition, it’s rather interesting how they can “achieve” that, but have been absolutely helpless against over 300 P-800 “Oniks” missiles. Not a single one has been shot down, despite being 3-4 times slower and less maneuverable than the “Zircon”.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 04/01/2024 – 02:00

  • Did The COVID Psyop Fail?
    Did The COVID Psyop Fail?

    Authored by Todd Hayen via Off-Guardian.org,

    As you all know, I have not been one to believe that the tides are turning. But lots of people think they are. They cite many victories, in court, in the streets, with family and friends.

    The fact that the agenda has not sent out a second wave of horror and fear propaganda is also rather telling to these folks. Where is the next pandemic? What happened to Covid’s diabolic never-ending run of mutations, what happened to Monkey Pox? What happened to Disease X?

    Yes, all this could still happen, but it seems there have been more false starts—starts that didn’t go anywhere. But if so, you would think they wouldn’t have put them out there just to not have them continue. It’s been rather weird, like an electrical storm you see on the horizon with its threatening lightning strikes, but it never gets close enough to warrant closing the cellar door.

    How about CBDCs? And the Digital IDs? You hear a lot about these, but nothing that is concretely happening to implement them. Is it happening in other places? Australia? Germany? The UK? Of course, a lot is said about it, on YouTube, and in alt media. Lots of talking heads, but how imminent is it? Actually, I won’t dwell on this, I have no doubt all of this is coming, but has the dragon been wounded? Even a little bit? Has this march into oblivion been slowed down?

    Maybe there is no wounding of the general juggernaut of world rule by the schmucks who are claiming power. Although even that sacrosanct organization may have suffered from shell damage. Wasn’t DAVOS not all that they expected this past year? Hasn’t there been some pretty obvious whiplash from some leaders in their little club? How about the UN and the “sustainable development” circus? How is that going?

    Anyway, I digress. Although the health of the world agenda, including all of these projects I mention, are all part of it, Covid, and pandemics in general, are the specific topics of this article.

    I don’t buy any of this talk of victory for a New York minute. This is like cancer, you can’t claim victory until it is ALL gone, every last scrap of it. Remissions are nice, but if you’ve still got cancer in your body somewhere, it is only a time-out. I feel that this is similar. Even if one cell survived, it would start multiplying again and wouldn’t stop until it was big and gnarly and spitting out all the garbage this monster has been known to spit out. So, I don’t buy it…but…

    Is it possible that at least one battle was won? Maybe, but just because they have pulled the troops back doesn’t mean they didn’t still take the city and got essentially what they stormed in for. I may still say that is a possibility. I mean, what did they want as a consequence of their Covid campaign? Did they want 100% compliance, with billions of sheep bowing down to them? Did they want everyone locked up in their own little cage, ala 1984, each of us in a squalid apartment with just a giant TV in the middle of it so Big Brother could blab at us all day long? If that is true, then indeed the psyop failed, because they didn’t get that—at least not yet.

    But what if they got this: a toxic injection placed in billions of people worldwide that will kill untold millions over the course of about 20 years? Not only that, but the injection will render another untold millions sterile. Do the math here: how many people would need to be sterilized over 20 years to reduce the population worldwide by 1 billion? 2 billion? What other havoc could such a death jab wreak? What untold horrors are yet to overcome us? Your guess is as good as mine. Think zombies here, think soulless ghouls, think humans with no empathy, think lost humanity.

    And that’s just the physical consequences. What about the psychological success they have had with the Covid campaign? Sure, many participants have shot them the bird regarding more boosters, and have ignored more threats of losing jobs over vaccine resistance. Sure, the courts have ruled in Canada that the illustrious leader here performed a no-no with his reckless enactment of the Emergency Act, and as a result, lawsuits are flowing into the courts. Does all this mean that no one fell for the psychological operation? That no one was mentally affected by the lockdowns, the masks, the closure of schools, churches, and other institutions? Does it mean that we have all recovered from the trauma of those three years, and mentally and emotionally we are just back to square one—all normal again?

    If anyone reading this knows anything about hypnosis, they probably understand what hypnotic suggestion is all about. It is real, folks. What has been altered subliminally in our unconscious minds could be quite formidable. We are being programmed for better performance in future projects the agenda has in store for us. Most of the shrews reading this are safe from this brainwashing (hopefully) because we closed our eyes during the deadly meteor storm perpetrated by the fear-mongering agenda (watch The Day of the Triffids to understand that reference!) But those out there who got caught up in it and drank the delayed-reaction Kool-Aid—are all like sleeper spies from the Cold War, soon to be re-activated at some future date to continue complying with TPTB’s bidding.

    Here I go again. I am supposed to be entertaining the possibility that the Covid psyop failed, not suggesting evidence to prove its great success. Sorry. Well, maybe it didn’t go as well as they wanted it to go. It does seem there was a lot more gas in the tank and that they could have pushed it a bit further than they did. They were doing pretty well, but they just fizzled out. Maybe they did expect more people to get vaxxed, maybe that was a disappointment. They sure looked like they were going for the whole enchilada with all their “you’ve GOT to get vaccinated!!” hoopla. Maybe they got too much pushback from us shrews. So many angry shrews showed up pretty quickly. And the shrews that were already on the scene, who were not surprised with all these shenanigans to begin with, just got louder and louder. Sure, not many sheep flipped, but some did. Their booster campaign is floundering (in my opinion, only because they turned the heat down, or off entirely).

    So maybe they did get nicked a bit. Maybe a few arrows penetrated the armour, and they backed off a step or two. Maybe we did surprise the bastards with our resolve, tenacity, wit, and refusal to play the game.

    But then again, maybe not.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 23:20

  • In Easter Ruling, Judge Orders Release Of 'Border Riot' Migrants Who Overwhelmed National Guard
    In Easter Ruling, Judge Orders Release Of ‘Border Riot’ Migrants Who Overwhelmed National Guard

    A group of migrants involved in a riot at the southern US border have been ordered to be released by an El Paso magistrate judge.

    The swarm of migrants overwhelmed Texas National Guard soldiers who were trying to organize them into groups to be taken into custody by Customs and Border Protection (CBP). At one point, a migrant attempted to grab a soldier’s firearm, one National Guard source told the NY Post.

    Following the riot, authorities confiscated knives and shanks from some of the migrants.

    “These people were willing to assault military,” said the Post‘s source. “They were willing to assault law enforcement. They have complete disregard for our laws.“

    In an Easter Sunday decision, presiding Magistrate Judge Humberto Acosta ordered the rioters released after accusing the El Paso DA’s Office of being unprepared to proceed with detention hearings for each defendant, so they should be released, the El Paso Times reports.

    “It is the ruling of the court is that all the rioting participation cases will be released on their own recognizance,” Acosta ordered, noting that they will only remain jailed if there’s a federal immigration hold blocking their release.

    The arrests were made by the Texas Department of Public Safety in connection with a March 21 stampede of asylum-seeking migrants — mostly men from Venezuela — who torn down razor wire along the Rio Grande and rushed the border fence at Border Safety Initiative Marker No. 36 in the Riverside area of El Paso’s Lower Valley.

    Some migrants face charges of assault of a public servant for knocking down National Guard troops before order was regained. The migrants had sought to surrender themselves to U.S. Border Patrol in bids for asylum.

    It was unclear if Acosta’s decision applied only to the “riot participation” charge, or the assault and criminal mischief charges related to the border incident.

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    It is unknown how many migrants were booked on the charge of “riot participation,” a Class B misdemeanor – though Acosta referred to “hundreds of arrestees,” who he says are entitled to individual detention hearings within 48 hours.

    The DA’s office requested a continuance to have the hearings at a later date, however Acosta rejected the request.

    “So if the DA’s office is telling me that they are not ready to go, what we’re going to do is we’re going to release all these individuals on their own recognizance,” Acosta said at the hearing.

    Meanwhile on Sunday, two other migrants – including a Colombian man, had separate hearings on criminal mischief charges for allegedly cutting border fencing. After being jailed with a $2,000 bond each, Magistrate Judge Antonio Aun also released them on personal recognizance bonds, however both men have immigration holds.

    Last week, Texas sent 700 National Guard soldiers to El Paso, including 200 with the Texas Tactical Border Force, to reinforce the border.

    As the El Paso Times notes further, ‘Operation Lone Star video shows troops boarding a transport plane and on the border with riot shields moving migrants back so crews could replace rolls of damaged razor wire along the banks of the Rio Grande.’

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 22:45

  • PBOC's Yuan Flip-Flop Sows Confusion Among Traders
    PBOC’s Yuan Flip-Flop Sows Confusion Among Traders

    By John Liu and Zheng Wu, Bloomberg Markets Live reporters and analysts

    1. The use of a familiar tool to stabilize the yuan sowed confusion and touched off a debate among investors. The People’s Bank of China stepped in to halt a drop in the currency last week by strengthening the fixing, and traders said state-owned banks then proceeded to dumped dollars onshore.

    The move helped to stabilize the foreign-exchange market but it also left traders wondering about the People’s Bank of China’s intentions. Investors were baffled because the yuan’s earlier selloff had been triggered by a weaker-than-expected reference rate.

    Authorities have allayed fears of a steep decline in the currency for now. The yuan is trading near the weak end of the band allowed by the reference rate, and state banks are selling an undisclosed amount of dollars to prop up the Chinese currency.

    But the PBOC’s mixed signals have unsettled the market and the yuan may become even more volatile if policymakers relax their grip on it again.

    2. Xi Jinping’s remarks on monetary tools generated a buzz but they’re unlikely to signal a move toward quantitative easing. The Chinese leader was quoted in a newly published book as saying the central bank should increase the buying and selling of government bonds, fueling speculation that Beijing was planning to embark on aggressive monetary easing.

    A closer examination of the context in which the comments were made suggests otherwise. Xi was probably expressing a view on how the PBOC can fine-tune its market operations, not ramp up purchases of government bonds to flood the economy with liquidity, according to Bloomberg Economics.

    There is still room for the PBOC to ease policy by lowering interest rates or the required reserve ratio. On the whole, the central bank is likely to exhaust all conventional tools before resorting to QE, and any move to trade government bonds will probably be part of efforts to better manage the sovereign yield curve.

    3. Xiaomi’s stock surged 12% in the US on Thursday after the Chinese smartphone and appliance maker launched its first electric vehicle. With aggressive pricing, pre-orders for the SU7 models topped 50,000 within 27 minutes of their debut.

    Xiaomi’s ambitious EV bet arrives at a challenging time. Carmakers from Tesla Inc. to BYD Co. are engaging in a price war as sales growth slows, with the former recently cutting production at its plant in China.  To make matters worse, trade tensions are compounding the pressure on the highly competitive sector. China’s EV exports to the European Union slumped in the first two month of the year amid a probe by Brussels into unfair subsidies.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 22:10

  • Watch: Denver Official Caught On Tape Begging Illegals To Leave The City
    Watch: Denver Official Caught On Tape Begging Illegals To Leave The City

    A top Denver official was caught on tape in a local migrant shelter begging illegals to go to other cities, as Denver – a so-called ‘sanctuary city,’ can’t support them.

    “The opportunities are over,” said Mayor Mike Johnson’s political director Andres Carrera, who also serves as the city’s Newcomer Communications Liaison, in an exchange with newly arrived migrants.

    “New York gives you more. Chicago gives you more. So I suggest you go there where there is longer-term shelter. There are also more job opportunities there,” Carrera continues in the video obtained by 9News.

    “We have received too many migrants and that is why we ran out of resources,” Carrara tells a crowed inside Denver’s primary migrant shelter.

    “We are not going to block you if you want to say here,” he continues. “If you stay here you are going to suffer even more and I don’t want to see this.”

    To facilitate their departure, Denver is offering to pay for migrants’ onward bus fare to a destination of their choice, which other ‘sanctuary cities’ have decried, 9News reports.

    The migrants Carrera is seen speaking to on video arrived in Denver on March 26 on a bus organized by Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, according to a city spokesperson.

    Abbott has bragged about flooding Denver and other so-called “sanctuary cities” with migrants who have crossed the U.S. border with Mexico.

    Denver has implemented strict limits on how long newly arrived migrants are allowed in city shelters; two weeks for individuals and six weeks for families with children.

    “You don’t have to walk anywhere, we can buy you a free ticket,” Carrera tells the group, which shows children milling around him as he speaks with their parents. “You can go to any city. We can take you up to the Canadian border, wherever!”

    A city spokesperson later said that Denver won’t buy bus tickets to Canadian cities, but will help Migrants get to US cities near the Canadian border if they ask.

    Chilly Reception

    Wrapping up his remarks, Carrera asks the crowd “Okay, who wants to travel to different cities where there is more work?”

    Crickets ensue.

    “Who wants to stay in Denver?” he then asked.

    “Todos,” a migrant replies – everyone.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 21:50

  • "Turkish People Demanded Change": Erdogan Suffers Shocking Defeat In Country's Municipal Elections
    “Turkish People Demanded Change”: Erdogan Suffers Shocking Defeat In Country’s Municipal Elections

    In a historic upset, Turks dealt President Tayyip Erdogan and his party their biggest electoral blow yet in Saturday’s nationwide local vote that reasserted the opposition as a political force and reinforced Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as the president’s chief rival amid raging inflation and the highest borrowing costs since the president swept to power more than two decades ago.

    With most of the votes counted, Imamoglu declared victory in the Istanbul mayoral race after leading by 10 percentage points while his Republican People’s Party (CHP) retained Ankara and gained 15 other mayoral seats in cities nationwide.

    According to Reuters, it marked the worst defeat for Erdogan and his AK Party (AKP) in their more than two decades in power, and could signal a change in the country’s divided political landscape. Erdogan called the March 31 election outcome a “turning point” in a post-midnight address, and in a rare moment of public humility said the election results were not in line with his expectations, and vowed pledged self-criticism over the election results as he added that he still has 4 more years to fix his mistakes, while predicting that the positive results of the economic plan would become apparent in the second half of the year.

    Erdogan and the AKP fared worse than opinion polls predicted due to soaring inflation, dissatisfied Islamist voters and, in Istanbul, Imamoglu’s appeal beyond the CHP’s secular base, analysts said.

    “Those who do not understand the nation’s message will eventually lose,” Imamoglu, 53, told thousands of jubilant supporters late on Sunday, some of them chanting for Erdogan to resign.

    “Tonight, 16 million Istanbul citizens sent a message to both our rivals and the president,” said the former businessman, who entered politics in 2008 and is now widely touted as a likely presidential challenger.

    Erdogan, who in the 1990s was also mayor of his hometown Istanbul, had campaigned hard ahead of the municipal elections, which analysts described as a gauge of both his support and the opposition’s durability.

    Addressing crowds gathered at AKP headquarters in Ankara, the capital, Erdogan said his alliance had “lost altitude” across the nation and will take steps to address the message from voters.

    “If we made a mistake, we will fix it” in the years ahead, he said. “If we have anything missing, we will complete it.”

    Elsewhere in Ankara, thousands more supporters had earlier waved Turkish and party flags for a speech by reelected CHP Mayor Mansur Yavas, who trounced his AKP challenger in another disappointment for Erdogan.

    According to 92.92% of ballot boxes opened in Istanbul, Europe’s largest city and the country’s economic engine, Imamoglu had 50.92% support compared with 40.05% for AKP challenger Murat Kurum, a former minister in Erdogan’s national government. Polls had predicted a tight contest in Istanbul and possible CHP losses across the country.

    Yet partial official results reported by state-run Anadolu Agency showed AKP and its main ally giving up mayoralties in 19 key municipalities including big cities Bursa and Balikesir in the industrialised northwest, possibly reflecting strains on wage earners.

    In an even more shocking result, and a first in 35 years, the CHP led nationwide by almost 1% of the votes the results showed.

    AKP was set to win mayor’s seat in 23 cities, down from 39 in 2019. CHP is leading the race in 36 provinces, compared with 21 in the last election, TRT reported.

    At stake in Istanbul is control of a city of almost 16 million people with a $6.6 billion annual budget. Social aid payments from municipal budgets are critical to voters hit by Turkey’s cost-of-living crisis. How those funds are allocated are decided at municipal councils, making dominance there is just as important as winning the mayor’s seat.

    * * *

    Mert Arslanalp, assistant professor of political science at Istanbul’s Bogazici University, said it was Erdogan’s “severest election defeat” since coming to national power in 2002.

    “Imamoglu demonstrated he could reach across the deep socio-political divisions that define Turkey’s opposition electorate even without their institutional support,” he said. “This makes him the most politically competitive rival to Erdogan’s regime.”

    In 2019, Imamoglu had dealt Erdogan a sharp electoral blow when he first won Istanbul, ending 25 years of rule in the city by AKP and its Islamist predecessors, including Erdogan’s own run as its mayor in the 1990s. CHP also won Ankara that year.
    The president struck back in 2023 by securing reelection and a parliamentary majority with his nationalist allies, despite a years-long cost-of-living crisis.

    Analysts said the economic strains, including nearly 70% inflation and a slowdown in growth brought on by an aggressive monetary-tightening regime, moved voters to punish AKP this time.

    “The economy was the decisive factor,” said Hakan Akbas, a senior adviser at the Albright Stonebridge Group. “Turkish people  demanded change and Imamoglu is now the default nemesis to President Erdogan.”

    Erdogan said ending the second election cycle in less than a year will itself bring a reprive for the economy.

    In front of the Istanbul Municipality building, flag-waving supporters said they wanted to see Imamoglu challenge Erdogan for the presidency in the future.

    “We are very happy. I love him so much. We would like to see him as president,” said Esra, a housewife.

    Then again, Erdogan is not known for willingly parting with power and there is a case to be made that Imamoglu’s days as Erdogan’s challenger may be numbered: even after his second Istanbul victory in a row, Imamoglu has another battle to fight. He is accused of insulting members of the Supreme Election Council, which could result in his being banned from political office.

    Rising popular support for the Islamist New Welfare Party, which took an even more hardline stance than Erdogan against Israel over the Gaza conflict, also sapped AKP support. The party took Sanliurfa from an AKP incumbant in the southeast.
    Imamoglu was reelected despite the collapse of the opposition alliance that failed to topple Erdogan last year.

    The main pro-Kurdish party, which backed Imamoglu in 2019, fielded its own candidate under the DEM banner in Istanbul this time. But many Kurds put aside party loyalty and voted for him again, the results suggest.

    In the mainly Kurdish southeast, DEM reaffirmed its strength, winning 10 provinces. Following previous elections, the state has replaced pro-Kurdish mayors with state-appointed “trustees” following previous elections over alleged militant ties.

    Violence erupted earlier in the day, including one incident in the southeast in clashes by groups armed with guns, sticks and stones, killing one and wounding 11. In another, one neighbourhood official, or “muhtar”, candidate was killed and four people were wounded in a fight, Anadolu reported.

    Several others were hurt in other incidents while one person was shot dead and two were wounded overnight ahead of the vote in Bursa, the Demiroren news agency reported.

    * * *

    It was too early to observe a market reaction, but according to former Goldman and IIF strategist Robin Brooks, the market won’t like the election result in Turkey, as it was “hoping for an end to election-related stimulus and a return to orthodoxy. This result sends the opposite signal. Markets will see this as keeping Turkey in perpetual election mode. More pump-priming. More devaluation…“

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    Considering a Turkish Lira short has been our favorite FX trade for the past year (as we have indicated on our premium subscriber data feed for the past year) we certainly agree.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 21:32

  • PBS Segment Claims Trump Wants To "Purge" Gay People From America
    PBS Segment Claims Trump Wants To “Purge” Gay People From America

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    In a ludicrous paranoid segment on PBS NewsHour this week, the network’s White House correspondent Laura Barron-Lopez claimed that Donald Trump is not only planning to roll back “civil rights,” but also to “purge” LGBT people from the country.

    Barron-Lopez and anchor William Brangham made the assertions while discussing Trump’s real criticism of transgender surgery and hormone therapy being carried out on children, and biological men competing in women’s sports.

    “On the campaign trail, Trump has been talking about what he plans to do if elected in November, and that includes rolling back the rights of millions of LGBTQ people. It’s part of a wider playbook to undo many modern civil rights advances for minority groups,” Brangham asserted.

    He then introduced Barron-Lopez, who claimed Trump “plans quick action if elected,” against LGBT people.

    She then suggested that Trump and “roughly 100 right-wing organisations led by the Heritage Foundation,” have a secret plan to wipe out LGBTQ people… or something.

    What does the dastardly plan consist of? Eliminating DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) from government mandates and banning federal funding for teaching Critical Race Theory.

    OK, those things are not civil rights. If anything they are in direct opposition to civil rights because they discriminate based on skin colour.

    Barron-Lopez, who is also a CNN political analyst, then complained that Trump will “rescind health-care protections for transgender people and urge Congress to define gender as male and female, fixed at birth.”

    Without any actual explanation or evidence she further asserted that “this plan also is trying to stop any and all acknowledgement of an acceptance of gender identity and LGBTQ people, period.”

    The correspondent then quoted Professor Thomas Zimmer at Georgetown, “who studies authoritarian regimes,” noting “Trump wasn’t necessarily able to institute this in 2017, when he first took office, because he didn’t have the amount of loyalists that he plans on having across the board. And with these new loyalists, Zimmer said, he can advance a white Christian evangelical ideal of American society.”

    VT of Zimmer was then played where he stated “It is opposed to egalitarian democracy because it fundamentally does not agree that all people are equal or deserve to be treated as equal citizens. Only those who belong to the “true people,” to real America, deserve that. And so everyone else needs to either be purged from the nation or, at the very least, accept their sort of lesser place in society.”

    Barron-Lopez then stated “Professor Zimmer added that that type of purging he’s talking about takes roots in the McCarthyism of the early 1950s, where they essentially tried to sweep away anyone across American society that would deviate from perceived norms.”

    Watch:

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    So they’re saying essentially because he believes there are two sexes, that means Trump wants to root out and “eliminate”sweep away” all LGBTQ people.

    What a juicy slice of leftist kookery that was.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 21:00

  • Minnesota Law School Drops Exclusion Of Whites And Males From Diversity Scholarship
    Minnesota Law School Drops Exclusion Of Whites And Males From Diversity Scholarship

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    There is a curious resolution of a civil right complaint against University of Minnesota Law School over a diversity fellowship sponsored by the law firm of Jones Day. Despite being created by a law firm and administered by a law school, the fellowship violated federal law in excluding white and male applicants. The law school finally threw in the towel, but there remains an uncertainty over whether the school is engaging in a subterfuge by opening up the scholarship while retaining its original purpose.

    The Jones Day Diversity Fellowship launched in December 2022 to extend full tuition for three years at the law school. The scholarship also allows the recipient to work as a summer associate at Jones Day, one of the most sought-after firms for summer employment. The firm website maintains that “We aggressively pursue hiring, retaining, and developing lawyers from historically underrepresented groups and backgrounds.”

    Various conservative sites have slammed the diversity fellowship, which was the subject of a civil rights complaint by Adam Kissel.

    The September 2023 complaint to the U.S. Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights (OCR) is now closed following a settlement to drop any “preference based on race or sex.”

    The question is what difference the settlement will make in actual awards.

    Law schools have been accused of “gaming the system” on admissions criteria for years to circumvent federal law and governing cases on the use of race or gender. Those concerns only increased after the Supreme Court categorically rejected the use of race in admissions in Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. President & Fellows of Harvard College and Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. University of North Carolina.

    Critics are still unclear on how Jones Day and Minnesota Law School will achieve its diversity goals without applying such a preference, even if the applications are not limiting on the basis of race.

    The university maintains that it will not impose threshold exclusions of whites and males but will select applicants “based on their commitment to enhancing diversity and inclusion” and “whose life experiences bring unique, extraordinary, or other fresh perspective to campus, including first generation college graduate and students from socioeconomically challenged backgrounds.’”

    This is a recurring complaint for Minnesota. It came under fire last May when the Office of Undergraduate Students created a paid internship program application to only non-White applicants.

    The question going forward is whether there is a viable basis to challenge the program on an “as applied” theory. If whites males continue to be excluded, the challengers could return to allege that nothing changed beyond the language.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 19:50

  • AT&T Reveals Easter Weekend Surprise For Customers: 73 Million Accounts Leaked On Dark Web
    AT&T Reveals Easter Weekend Surprise For Customers: 73 Million Accounts Leaked On Dark Web

    Millions of AT&T Inc. users received bad news from the third-largest US retail wireless carrier this Easter holiday weekend: Their personal data has been leaked onto the dark web. 

    In a press release on Saturday, the telecommunications giant said it has “determined that AT&T data-specific fields were contained in a data set released on the dark web approximately two weeks ago” and contains “personal information such as social security numbers.” 

    “It is not yet known whether the data … originated from AT&T or one of its vendors,” the company said, adding, “Currently, AT&T does not have evidence of unauthorized access to its systems resulting in exfiltration of the data set.”

    The statement continued: “Based on our preliminary analysis, the data set appears to be from 2019 or earlier, impacting approximately 7.6 million current AT&T account holders and approximately 65.4 million former account holders.” 

    According to Bloomberg data, AT&T is the third-largest US retail wireless carrier, behind Verizon Communications Inc. and T-Mobile US Inc. It’s also the largest telecom company that has disclosed the theft of its customers’ personal information. 

    In 2022, T-Mobile paid $350 million to settle a class-action lawsuit over leaked data from over 50 million customers. Then, in 2023, the cellphone carrier revealed another major breach of “basic customer information” on 37 million customers. 

    Of, course, in the PR world, save the bad news for a holiday weekend… 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 19:15

  • Have We Reached Peak ESG? Corporate America Fools Around And Finds Out
    Have We Reached Peak ESG? Corporate America Fools Around And Finds Out

    Authored by James Gorrie via The Epoch Times,

    “Go woke, go broke.”

    This catchphrase has become more than a clever play on words. Like all clichés that make their way into common social expression, it’s a cliché because it’s generally true, at least in its sentiment.

    It was just a few years ago that the corporate giants of America took it upon themselves to champion the woke environmental, social, and governance (ESG) “standards” of politically correct attitudes and behaviors, and apply them to their business models.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    Well, as we’re now seeing, quite a lot can and will.

    Companies Take on the Woke Yoke

    Many companies that took the ESG woke ideology to heart, that is, to their business, have seen less than ideal outcomes. Ask the good folks at Bud Light about losing money with their foray into the “S” “social” aspect of the ESG movement.

    The Disney brand is another woke company that has lost billions in a series of box office flops from films that push the ESG woke ideology, especially the LBGTQ+ social messaging, not to mention the billions lost in market value as share prices have fallen.

    Going Woke Isn’t Fatal to Big Business, but It Hurts

    The reality is that in most cases, boycotts of woke businesses won’t destroy global companies such as Anheuser-Busch or Disney, at least not in the short term. International conglomerates have multiple revenue sources, which often include long-term government contracts and other long-term business relationships that will keep them in business and likely profitable for the foreseeable future. In other cases, there simply isn’t an alternative choice.

    But there are other consequences to orienting a business model to the ESG agenda, particularly with the environment part of ESG. Seeking to force companies to continually reduce emissions even if they’re meeting current regulatory standards is a part of the ESG agenda and can also cut into profitability.

    The Woke Pushback Is Here

    But CEOs who remember what their job is are pushing back.

    No one knows this better than Exxon CEO Darren Woods. Under Mr. Woods, Exxon is suing investors who are trying to force the company to further reduce carbon emissions, presumably under the mythical belief that carbon dioxide, which comprises 0.04 percent of the atmosphere, is bad for the planet. Mr. Woods is also pushing back against the idea of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 as not possible.

    In fact, many companies, large and small, are now touting themselves as “woke-free” or having “traditional values” as a way of appealing to customers who don’t want to be told what to think by corporate America. Firms such as Exxon, Wendy’s, and Tesla are now well-known as non-woke companies.

    Elon Musk’s X Factor

    Without question, one of the biggest factors countering the woke trend was and remains Elon Musk’s acquisition of X (formerly known as Twitter). This is simply due to the fact that the ESG and woke agendas, which also include the forced diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) hiring practices, rely on the censorship of free speech as a means of enforcing societal compliance and adoption of those radical leftist agendas.

    The free and open discussions that X has enabled have had a huge impact on Americans’ ability to speak their minds without being canceled (another ESG/woke tactic and value), and has helped people learn more about who they’re doing business with and what companies really stand for and what they don’t.

    The ESG movement has nothing to do with business. Business is all about meeting the needs of society as expressed in the marketplace with the best products and services each business or organization can muster. That’s called competition. Competition breeds excellence, which results in sales. People will generally buy the best that they can afford, which compels most firms to streamline operating costs while providing the best they can to their target market.

    In short, people want to not just boycott brands that hate them, but also put their money where their heart is. Most don’t want to be dictated to and told that their traditional values are not important, or worse, immoral. To at least some extent, those companies that wish to do so will find their market share shrinking, if not their market value.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 18:40

  • "The US Economy Is Inverted": How The Flood Of Illegal Immigration Is Delaying The Official US Recession
    “The US Economy Is Inverted”: How The Flood Of Illegal Immigration Is Delaying The Official US Recession

    By Dhaval Joshi, Chief Strategist at BCA Research

    Summary

    • The US economy is highly unusually ‘inverted’. The constraint on the economy is not labor demand, it is labor supply.

    • Hence, the US economy has highly unusually entered a labor demand recession without entering a GDP recession.

    • Nevertheless, for the stock market, a labour demand recession implies a profits headwind, because it is only when profits come under pressure that labour demand goes into recession.

    • Against this, wage disinflation would allow long-duration bond yields to fall, which would provide a countervailing valuation tailwind.

    The pandemic might seem like a distant memory, but for the US economy the pandemic’s legacy is still the big story. For the first time in at least fifty years, US labor supply is running well below labor demand. The big story is that the US economy is ‘inverted.’

    Therefore, we must analyze the post-pandemic inverted economy very differently to the pre-pandemic economy. Normally, labor demand – being less than labor supply – is the constraint on economic output and thereby drives the cycle. But in an inverted economy, labor supply – being less than labor demand – is the constraint on output and thereby drives the cycle.

    Before the pandemic, all downswings caused labor demand to fall well below labour supply. In the subsequent upswings, labor demand gradually caught up with supply…until the next downswing caused a fresh slump in labor demand. And the cycle repeated. Importantly though, all pre-pandemic cycles were driven by the demand side.

    Then came the pandemic, and the longstanding pattern inverted. Labor supply suffered the more protracted slump, from which it has gradually caught up with labor demand. Meaning that in the last couple of years, the cycle is being driven not by what is happening to labor demand,  but by what is happening to labor supply.

    Interest rate hikes work by choking demand, which is exactly what has happened recently. US labor demand is tipping into recession. Jobs plus job openings today are less than they were a year ago. Whenever this happened pre-pandemic, the economy tipped into recession too. But for the first time in at least fifty years, the economy is entering a labor demand recession without entering a GDP recession.

    This is because in an inverted economy the constraint on the economy is not labor demand, it is labor supply. Despite weaking
    labor demand, labor supply has played catch up to demand and thereby driven economic growth.

    As labor supply has caught up with labor demand, it has narrowed the gap between demand and supply. This has created the perfect macro backdrop of robust economic growth with wage disinflation, a Goldilocks setup for financial assets. The pressing question for the coming 6-12 months is, what happens next to labor supply, labor demand, and their interplay?

    Why The US Economy Inverted

    But first, let’s tackle the obvious question. Why is US labor supply running well below labor demand?

    There are two reasons: after the pandemic, prime aged (25-54) workers left the labor force; and older aged (55+) workers retired early, generating millions of so-called ‘excess retirements.’

    The economically inactive make no contribution to labor supply. Yet they still consume the goods and services that generate labor demand. This they do by using savings or, in the case of early retirees, by tapping into their retirement assets and income early. Thereby, the plunge in prime-aged labor participation combined with excess retirements caused labor supply to fall well below labor demand.

    Subsequently, the plunge in prime-aged labour participation has fully reversed, causing labor supply to recover strongly. But the excess retirements have not reversed and are unlikely to reverse

    This means that the strong recovery in labor supply is now exhausted, with labor supply still several million people below labor demand. The economy is still inverted.

    US Labour Demand Is Already In Recession, But GDP May Dodge The Bullet

    To repeat, US labor demand has already tipped into recession. But in the inverted economy – where labor supply is the constraint on output – labor supply is driving the GDP cycle.

    It follows that a GDP recession would require one of two things:

    • Labor supply must outright contract. However, with the recent surge in illegal migration – most of which does eventually get counted in the survey-calculated labor supply – a sustained contraction in labor supply seems unlikely. Of course, this could change under a new Trump administration, or…

    • Labor demand must contract so sharply – by about 3.5 million jobs – that the economy would ‘un-invert’. Once un-inverted, contracting labor demand would once again drive GDP into recession, as in all pre-pandemic cycles.

    But if labor demand contracts more gently – as now – then the US economy could experience a sustained labor demand recession without a GDP recession, making it difficult for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to designate it an official recession.

    This ‘halfway house’ in which GDP is not in recession, but labor demand is in recession and gently ‘catching down’ with labor supply is a distinct possibility – because it is the least painful way for the Federal Reserve to steer wage inflation back down to the 3 percent rate that is needed for price inflation to stabilise at 2 percent (Chart 5 and Chart 6).

    Yet though the economy could dodge the ‘NBER official recession’ bullet, a labor demand recession combined with stagnant per capita real incomes would very much feel like a recession.

    For the stock market, a labor demand recession implies lower profits because it is only when profits come under pressure that labor demand goes into recession. Against this, wage disinflation would allow long-duration bond yields to fall, which would provide some countervailing support to stock valuations. In combination this would imply the stock market was rangebound while high-quality bonds rallied.

    But there is another factor to consider. The euphoric pricing of anything AI-related is a separate and independent risk to the stock market. Absent this risk the macro backdrop would imply a neutral allocation to stocks versus cash. But this additional risk ratchets down my 6-12-month allocation to mildly underweight.

    For those who can time this, go underweight stocks when the ‘Joshi rule’ is triggered. Or, when the rally reaches a  collapsed complexity that presages an imminent reversal.

    More in the full note available to pro subscribers.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 18:05

  • Rogan: NY Times Writers Are "Ultra Hard Left Activists Masquerading As Journalists"
    Rogan: NY Times Writers Are “Ultra Hard Left Activists Masquerading As Journalists”

    Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

    During an episode of his podcast, Joe Rogan slammed New York Times writers, calling them leftist activists pretending to be reporters.

    Rogan played a clip of two New York Times ‘journalists’ claiming that anything Donald Trump says now has to be considered in the context of the January 6th Capitol incident, and made fun of how they feel the need to make Instagram videos explaining their ‘reporting’.

    “They don’t understand what they’re doing,” Rogan stated, adding “This is exactly who we thought was writing these things. It’s like this very effeminate guy and this woman…these ultra-liberal out-of-touch people.”

    Rogan continued, “One of the guys was talking about Donald Trump’s words being taken out of context that it would be a ‘bloodbath’ because he was talking about the auto industry and the economy.”

    Rogan further noted that the New York Times used to be populated by “hard-nosed reporters with a cup of coffee that are like f***ing chasing down leads and they’re pulling their hair out and they’re meeting people in back alleyways.”

    Now “they’re, they’re essentially like ultra hard-Left activists that are masquerading as journalists and everything has their opinion on it,” Rogan urged.

    Watch:

    As we highlighted earlier this week, The Washington Post published a report claiming that women choosing to get off hormonal birth control are doing so because of a “misinformation explosion,” and admitted to pressuring social media platforms to remove the opinions and accounts of women who have been on the pill.

    It also made a cringe TikTok video doubling down on the gaslighting.

    Rogan is right, these people are far left activists using major newspapers as their platforms.

    *  *  *

    Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 17:30

  • Musk Warns Ukraine May Lose Odessa & Black Sea Access If It Doesn't Negotiate
    Musk Warns Ukraine May Lose Odessa & Black Sea Access If It Doesn’t Negotiate

    Elon Musk has once again urged negotiated settlement to end the Ukraine war while warning Ukraine that seeking to keep up and expand the fight will inevitably lead to the loss of Odessa and thus Kiev’s access to the Black Sea.

    The Tesla and SpaceX CEO underscored that Ukraine’s position continues to weaken even as its leadership refuses negotiations while pressing the West for more weapons. “Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question,” he stressed in his commentary posted on X.

    Via Reuters

    Musk was responding in agreement with David Sacks who heavily criticized prominent pundit John Spencer of the Modern War Institute at West Point. Sacks blasted Spencer for his analysis based in “neocon fairy tales about Russian weakness, and puffed up Ukraine’s chances.” Sacks also noted Spencer was “a cheerleader for the disastrous summer counteroffensive.”

    Musk reflected of the failed counteroffensive in the thread, “It was a tragic waste of life for Ukraine to attack a larger army that had defense in depth, minefields and stronger artillery when Ukraine lacked armor or air superiority! Any fool could have predicted that.”

    Musk continued: “My recommendation a year ago was for Ukraine to entrench and apply all resources to defense. Even then, it is tough to hold land that doesn’t have strong natural barriers.”

    “There is no chance of Russia taking all of Ukraine, as the local resistance would be extreme in the west, but Russia will certainly gain more land than they have today.”

    “The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnepr, which is tough to overcome. However, if the war lasts long enough, Odessa will fall too,” Musk wrote.

    And that’s when he concluded, “Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question. I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens.”

    Musk has been no stranger to controversy and catching flak from the mainstream media over his Ukraine-related commentary. Kiev officials themselves have at times accused the South African-born entrepreneur and billionaire of supposed ‘sympathies’ with the Kremlin; however, Musk is among those commentators who take a fiercely independent and realist approach to examining the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

    Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

    Musk has frequently defended his record – for example in February lashing out at critics during a Twitter Spaces discussion with Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI): “My companies have probably done more to undermine Russia than anyone. Space X has taken away two-thirds of the Russian launch business. Starlink has overwhelmingly helped Ukraine,” he said at the time.

    Johnson had during the debate underscored that “We all have to understand that Vladimir Putin will not lose this war… Losing to Vladimir Putin is existential to Vladimir Putin. Russia has four times the population and a much larger industrial base.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 16:55

  • Pandemic Whiskey Boom Turns To Hangover
    Pandemic Whiskey Boom Turns To Hangover

    Authored by Douglas French via The Mises Institute,

    Yeah, the other night I laid sleeping

     And I woke from a terrible dream

     So I caught up my pal Jack Daniel’s

     And his partner Jimmy Beam

     And we drank alone, yeah

     With nobody else

     Yeah, you know when I drink alone

     I prefer to be by myself 

    ~George Thorogood

    I poured hundreds of “Jack and Cokes” when I tended bar from the late 70’s to mid 80’s. It was beyond me how anyone could tell the difference between Jack Daniels Old No. 7 and anything else when mixed with coke or whatever carbonated cola was coming out of the gun. 

    Turns out Dr. Fauci and the Center for Disease Control did Brown-Forman, the makers of Jack, a solid by shutting down America and cooping everyone up. More than some whiled away the hours with their old pal Jack Daniels. People may have had to work from home, but without the boss breathing down their necks plenty figured “why not have snoot-full and have fun.” It’ll make the day go by faster. Besides, no customers would be banging on the door. No one will know the difference.

    “The phenomenal sales growth we saw during the pandemic was unprecedented and unpredictable but also unsustainable, and now, the spirits market is recalibrating,” Chris Swonger, the president of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, said last month. Those stimulus checks could buy a lot of Jack Daniels, or cause the more frugal drinker to pay more for Jack, instead of cheaper brands. 

    Jennifer Maloney writes for the Wall Street Journal, “Some drinkers of Jack Daniel’s Old No. 7 – often used to make the cocktail Jack and Coke – are trading down to cheaper alternatives while others are trading up.”

    Price inflation affects consumers differently. For those drinking their whiskey with Coke, just about any will probably do, but for those imbibing theirs neat or on the rocks may spend a few more cheaper bucks for smoothness. 

    Even Jack and Coke drinker Brian Moran, a tile-setter who lives in the Chicago suburbs, told the WSJ that a client paid him to tile a kitchen backsplash with five pricier bottles of bourbon, including Stagg, Eagle Rare and E.H. Taylor. “From his first sips, Moran was enthralled,” writes Maloney.

    “I don’t know anyone who even drinks it anymore,” he said of Jack Daniel’s Old No. 7, which has a national average price of about $22. “You spend an extra $10 and you get something that’s so much better.”

    Brown-Forman reported dismal sales over the winter holiday season and the hangover has lasted into 2024. “Christmas stunk,” Chief Executive Lawson Whiting said on a call with analysts in early March. 

    Brown-Forman is trying to entice younger legal-age drinkers to Jack Daniel’s Old No. 7 with a TV commercial set to the AC/DC song “Back in Black.” However, that song was a hit more than 40 years ago. Also the company is selling Jack and Coke in a can, attempting to appeal to young drinkers and females. The canned cocktail contains about 5% alcohol depending on the market. Reportedly there is a no sugar version. Which hardly seems possible. 

    Chairman Campbell Brown, a great-great-grandson of founder George Garvin Brown, told investors that the company has weathered Prohibition and the Great Depression, steadily building the Jack Daniel’s brand since acquiring it nearly 70 years ago. 

    It was not reported whether he has thanked Dr. Fauci. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 16:20

  • White House Approves Transfer To Israel Of More Bombs & Jets Worth Billions
    White House Approves Transfer To Israel Of More Bombs & Jets Worth Billions

    The Biden White House has approved of sending billions of dollars worth of new military equipment and ammo to Israel, The Washington Post has revealed, even amid public criticism from US officials over Prime Minister Netanyahu’s intent to soon send ground troops into Rafah, which is expected to result in humanitarian disaster in the refugee-packed southern city.

    This package is to include 25 F-35 fighter jets, sources told the Post, and additionally the highly controversial 2,000-pound bombs which have been known to kill indiscriminately in Gaza when deployed by the Israeli air force.

    “The new arms packages include more than 1,800 MK84 2,000-pound bombs and 500 MK82 500-pound bombs, according to Pentagon and State Department officials familiar with the matter,” the report indicates.

    2,000-pound bombs fitted with Joint Direct Attack Munition tail kits, via US Air Force

    “The 2,000-pound bombs have been linked to previous mass-casualty events throughout Israel’s military campaign in Gaza,” WaPo continues. “These officials, like some others, spoke to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity because recent authorizations have not been disclosed publicly.”

    The 2,000 pound bombs have been flagged by human rights monitors as behind much of the soaring Palestinian casualties, given they can demolish entire city blocks and produce craters over 40 feet wide.

    The weaponry was approved as part of a prior authorization, but it highlights that for all the current US-Israel tensions due to the soaring civilian death toll in the Gaza campaign, Biden is certainly no closer to attaching ‘conditions’ on Israel when it comes to deployment of US-supplied weapons.

    A State Department official has explained that “fulfilling an authorization from one notification to Congress can result in dozens of individual Foreign Military Sales cases across the decades-long life-cycle of the congressional notification.”

    “As a matter of practicality, major procurements, like Israel’s F-35 program for example, are often broken out into several cases over many years,” the official added.

    A New York Times investigation in December concluded that Israel has been using 2,000 pound bombs supplied by the US on Gaza neighborhoods on a routine basis. The Pentagon has said it almost never uses these types of weapons in densely populated urban areas anymore because of the likelihood of large-scale civilian casualties.

    The Times report further said that 2,000 pound bombs had been dropped on Gaza and even inside declared ‘safe zones’ in the south, some hundreds of times.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 15:45

  • How Much Do Food Stamps, Social Security, And Medicare Support The Economy?
    How Much Do Food Stamps, Social Security, And Medicare Support The Economy?

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    Inquiring minds might be interested in a discussion of government transfer payments as a percentage of real income. I can help, but prepare to be disgusted.

    Data from BEA’s personal Income and outlays report. Real means inflation adjusted. Chart by Mish.

    What Are Transfer Receipts?

    Transfer receipts are government payments for which no services were performed.

    Transfer receipts include food stamps, subsidized housing, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, child tax credits, and other government assistance.

    Three rounds of massive fiscal stimulus during the Covid pandemic set off a huge wave of inflation that the Fed never saw coming.

    The numbers are worse than they look above as the following chart shows.

    Transfer Receipts as Percentage of Real Personal Income

    With every recession, transfer receipts as a percentage of real personal income declines.

    The three massive rounds of fiscal stimulus is unprecedented. A friend asked me today why the Fed could not see this coming.

    I explained: These guys are not wizards; they have never called a recession in real time. Bernanke denied there was a recession even after it started. He denied there was a housing bubble. They all believe in models that don’t work. And history suggests they always err on the side of being too loose. They will make the same mistakes over and over.

    The Fed never saw the uptick in inflation because their models said otherwise. Their models now say inflation will return to normal.

    I can see things models don’t: Global wage arbitrage is over. Just in time manufacturing is over. Both Trump and Biden will increase tariffs. The energy needed for AI will soar. The energy needed for EVs will grow even if transition slows. Demographic changes are huge.

    Four Reasons Transfer Receipts Poised to Surge

    1. Influx of illegal immigrants

    2. Republicans just agreed to expand Child Tax Credits

    3. Medicaid Expansion

    4. Boomer Retirements

    Influx of Immigrants

    Please note: Denver Health at “Critical Point” as 8,000 Migrants Make 20,000 Emergency Visits

    Much of that you will pay for directly with higher premiums. But the Federal government will pick up some of it via Medicaid Expansion.

    Child Tax Credits

    We have a new number on the deal the House Republicans agreed to. It’s $1.5 trillion over ten years.

    For discussion, please see How Much Will That GOP Deal on Child Tax Credits Really Cost?

    The reported numbers do not include an Affordable Housing giveaway, or aid to Ukraine and Israel, or expanded defense spending. More money and bigger deficits means more inflation.

    The tax credits add directly to transfer payments.

    Medicaid Expansion

    On March 9, I noted Medicaid Expansion Was Supposed to Pay for Itself, Instead Hospitals Are Closing

    10 states did not fall for the Medicaid expansion trap under Obamacare. The rest are suffering. Private payers (you, one way or another) make up the loss.

    Boomer Retirements

    Due to age demographics, I expect employment in age groups 60 and over to decline by about 12.5 million.

    Population stats are from the BLS. Expected Employment Loss is a Mish calculation based on the Employment Population Ratio (the percentage of people working in each age group).

    In terms of expanding transfer payments this is the biggest of the four by far.

    Boomers health care need and retirements will have a huge impact expanded Social Security payments and Medicare payments.

    And there is a shortage of 6 million workers to replace retiring boomers. This is another set of things the Fed has not properly modeled.

    As a result of demographics, transfer receipts as a percentage of real personal income will surge. And due to a replacement worker shortage, wages will likely rise and productivity decline.

    For discussion, please see In the Next 5 years, Employment in Age Groups 60+ Will Drop by ~12.5 Million

    I go over the demographic math, point-by-point. Click on the link for details.

    Conclusion: The decline in the rate of inflation is transitory. The Fed does not see this coming.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 15:10

  • Fire, Then Ice: Our Deflationary Future
    Fire, Then Ice: Our Deflationary Future

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTWoMinds blog,

    Lest you weep for those whose phantom wealth will be drained away, recall that few win when a reserve currency dies. Labor can start earning the day after the reset, but the capital lost is gone for good.

    Outside the “everything’s always fine” echo-chamber, the consensus is that easily created fiat currencies will all evaporate as the temptation to continue printing/borrowing money into existence is irresistible: the only way to keep the system from imploding is to devalue the soaring debt and interest payments with inflation, and the dial controlling inflation is money-printing / central banks buying debt and all the related tricks.

    The problem is that once the dial is turned to 11, inflationary expectations start feeding back into real-world inflation and inflation then escapes the control of central bankers and government treasuries: creating more money to devalue the currency and service the debt ends up destroying the currency via hyper-inflation.

    History offers many examples of this temptation and dynamic. The pain of debts being written off, governments defaulting on bonds and assets crashing is too great, and so we have to print more money / borrow more money into existence to stave off the painful reckoning of debt dependence and central bank hubris.

    To stave off the pain of debt saturation / over-indebtedness, monetary authorities collapse the currency and the economy it supported, unleashing maximum pain on everyone who used the currency or owned assets denominated in the currency.

    A new dollar is then introduced at a ratio of 1 new unit to 100, or 1,000, or 100,000 of the old dollars. Everyone’s financial wealth is wiped out. Tools, skills, precious metals, buildings, mines, farms, etc., still retain their intrinsic / productive value, but the monetary reset means everyone whose phantom wealth was a form of debt is wiped out.

    This dynamic makes perfect sense, and it’s a well-worn pathway for nation-states. Empires, however, might choose differently. The difference between a nation-state and an empire is generally under-appreciated. A nation-state can destroy its currency and bankrupt everyone holding its bonds / debt and start over, but an empire cannot be quite so cavalier, for the “reserve currency” of the empire is its foundation of power.

    Yes, the hard power of military power projection is a core strength, along with trade, alliances, cultural and diplomatic soft power, but if the currency evaporates, so does the Imperial Project, and those tasked with maintaining the Imperial Project are forced to calibrate pain by a different standard than politicians and central bankers.

    Inflation and the evaporation of the currency is not a solution for the Imperial Project, it is the surrender of all that is great and good. The only viable solution for the Imperial Project is deflation, the forced liquidation of unpayable debts and thus the forced liquidation of all the phantom wealth generated by ever-expanding debt.

    Just as inflation has many sources, so too does deflation. Technology can be a source of deflation, as a new technology can dramatically increase supply and durability while dramatically lowering costs. Substitution can be deflationary, as enterprises and consumers swap a cheaper, more abundant substitute for whatever was becoming scarce and costly.

    If the sum of “money” circulating in the economy contracts as credit tightens, it becomes harder to borrow more money into existence. Every dollar of debt that’s written down to zero reduces the quantity of money floating around, i.e. the money supply.

    If the money that is being created is immediately hoarded by the wealthy, it doesn’t circulate in the economy and therefore it’s the equivalent of debt being extinguished: the supply of money doesn’t expand because the new money has been hoarded, in effect buried in the backyard.

    To preserve the Empire, it becomes necessary to wipe out the debt and the phantom wealth it created, 90% of which is held by the hyper-wealthy, super-wealthy and merely wealthy. This is the class that has concentrated wealth and power to the point of destabilizing the social, financial and political orders, and so those tasked with preserving the Empire (the State within the State) will have to strip this powerful class of its phantom wealth indirectly, as the class is too politically powerful to be taken down head-on.

    Recall that deflation–the decline in the price of assets, goods and services–is beneficial to wage-earners, as their earnings go farther as prices fall. Profits become harder to come by, and those lending and speculating on ever-higher asset valuations are wiped out.

    From the Imperial point of view, this is all good: given that the only goal is to preserve the currency from evaporation, then the takedown of the hyper-wealthy class that threatens to destabilize the Imperial order is equally essential.

    Just as inflation is a hidden tax on labor, deflation is a hidden tax on capital. If commercial real estate, stocks and corporate bonds all lose value for a decade, the bottom 90% will only be affected indirectly. If whatever money is being created is funneled into spending at the bottom of the economy–those buying essentials–then the deflation of private debt and assets won’t strip the real economy of money in circulation, it will only strip the wealthy of the capital they were hoarding and speculating with under the guise of “investing.”

    Fire, then ice: as inflation (fire) threatens the Imperial currency, the Empire must choose deflation (ice) to preserve its foundation. Currency in active circulation is lumped in with the phantom wealth of debt-based assets, but they are two different things, as Aristotle observed (oikonoma and chrematistics). Just as inflation works slowly to erode the value of labor, deflation works best if it too is gradual, slowly extinguishing phantom wealth over time.

    I have endeavored over the years to explain that the concentrated wealth and power of the hyper-wealthy pose an existential threat to the Imperial Project, and the showdown between debt-created phantom wealth and the bedrock of the Imperial Project, its currency, will play out in the next 6 to 8 years.

    The “everything’s always fine” echo-chamber holds that inflation to preserve all the debt-created phantom wealth is necessary, but they are focused on serving private wealth, not the Imperial Project. What’s truly essential is to preserve the Imperial currency, and to accomplish that, both the phantom wealth and the power of the hyper-wealthy who own the vast majority of it must be extinguished. Slowly, slowly, but extinguished nonetheless.

    Lest you weep for those whose phantom wealth will be drained away, recall that few win when a reserve currency dies. Labor can start earning the day after the reset, but the capital lost is gone for good.

    There is much more to discuss here, but let’s take it one step at a time.

    *  *  *

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 14:00

  • Criminal White House Press Corps Has Been Looting Air Force One
    Criminal White House Press Corps Has Been Looting Air Force One

    In case you needed one more reason to despise legacy-media journalists, Politico reports that White House correspondents have been routinely looting Air Force One — to the point that they were just collectively asked to keep their sticky fingers off the taxpayers’ property.   

    After the latest discovery of missing property, White House Correspondents’ Association president and NBC reporter Kelly O’Donnell emailed members to inform them that stealing is not allowed, and that doing so harms the press corps’ reputation, such as it is.   

    White House Correspondents’ Association president Kelly O’Donnell broke shocking news to members: Stealing is wrong

    Looting Air Force One is entrenched in the press corps culture, to the extent that rookies are told to do it. As a current White House reporter told Politico: 

    “On my first flight, the person next to me was like, ‘You should take that glass.’ They were like: ‘Everyone does it.’” 

    That’s not the most disgraceful anecdote…

    “Several colleagues of one former White House correspondent for a major newspaper described them hosting a dinner party where all the food was served on gold-rimmed Air Force One plates, evidently taken bit by bit over the course of some time.”

    Others described how, when reporters disembark Air Force One, the sound of clinking glass and porcelain accompanies their descent down the rear stairway.  

    Donald Trump addresses the traveling press aboard Air Force One

    While it’s apparently been a long-simmering phenomenon, the reporters’ kleptomania on an extended West coast trip in February sufficiently irked the Air Force crew that they complained to the White House travel office. The director of press advance, in turn, told the press office that a USAF inventory found several items missing from the press cabin.

    The press office sent a gentle email to all the journalists who’d been on that particular trip, with someone familiar with the matter telling Politico, “It was like, ‘Hey, if you inadvertently wound up taking something off the plane by mistake, we can help facilitate a quiet return.’”

    The response was predictably pathetic: Exactly one of the thieving journalists demonstrated a semblance of morality. The guilty individual arranged a rendezvous next to the Andrew Jackson statue in Lafayette Square — across from the White House — and relinquished a stolen embroidered pillow. 

    The latest Gallup poll found that, when it comes to reporting the news accurately and fairly, a record 39% of Americans said they have no confidence in mass media whatsoever, and another 29% said they have “not very much.”

    Forget reporting...next time, Gallup should ask about the extent to which establishment journalists can be trusted not to steal your f***ing silverware.  

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 13:25

  • Rotations
    Rotations

    By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

    “Rotations”

    We will use the term “rotation” a bit more broadly today. Yes, it will incorporate what we typically think of as rotations, but will be broadened to encompass “pivots” and “evolution” if not “rethinking.”

    The areas of focus today will be:

    • U.S. Equity Markets
    • The Fed on Inflation
    • Crypto
    • Carry Trades
    • Private Credit

    Each of these is important for overall markets and represent, to some degree, “rotations.”

    U.S. Equity Markets

    I’ve been particularly bearish on the Nasdaq 100 which, despite all the hype, closed lower to end March than where it closed on March 1st. While I’ve liked energy, I have not committed to the “laggard” trade, like we did in late fall/early winter last year. Back then we were reduced to Wayne’s World and Beavis and Butt-Head to support what was a largely contrarian (and seemingly illogical) view.

    While I’ve been struggling to become constructive on the Nasdaq 100 (IGIW in A Day for Acronyms), it certainly makes sense to revisit the broad market and the potential for another big rotation like we saw late last year.

    I’m so sick of hearing about the Mag 7, Fab 4, or whatever (Time to Retire Mag 7 Moniker) and that it is at the 22nd all-time high on this run for the S&P 500, that I’m looking for anything to steer me away from that. The Russell 2000, suddenly outperforming, is interesting.

    This has been a market driven by AI, AI proxies, and anything that has been “deputized” into the AI space. That is where the performance has been concentrated.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    That is where I question whether markets, investors, or even corporations have gotten ahead of themselves on what AI can deliver today, especially versus the costs of implementing it today.

    It is refreshing to see a bounce in some other areas. Energy and mining have done well of late. The regional bank index seems to be trying to break back to levels last seen before some smaller banks faced pressure and required some immediate investments.

    This is occurring while ARKK, one of my favorite proxies for “innovative” stocks, bounces around, roughly unchanged from the middle of February. That is even with a resumption of the IPO market, which I would have expected to provide a “knee jerk” bounce to that ETF. It didn’t, which is somewhat encouraging, as it could be taken (and I’m taking it this way) that there is a lot of thought going into picking stocks and sectors (yes, a LOT of the thought is to BUY AI) which seems healthy.

    Is this rotation real?

    Are we set for another period of significant outperformance by small caps? I could be convinced of that, quite easily, in fact. We’ve hit that point in the rally, where even some of the biggest bulls are seeing signs of excessive exuberance.

    But (and this is a big but), will it occur like late last year, when the outperformance occurred in a very positive market, or will it occur in a decline?

    I’m starting to eye outperformance for more sectors than just energy (which has been my focus), but while I can see energy going up, even amidst a decline in the Nasdaq 100, I’m not sure that I can see the same for the Russell 2000.
    Leaning towards a rotation, but the outperformance seems likely to be losing less, rather than making more.

    The Fed on Inflation

    Clearly the Fed seems to be getting more comfortable with some level of inflation above 2%. While they haven’t officially changed their target, they seem to be willing to ease monetary policy, even while inflation remains closer to 3% than 2%.

    The Fed’s “preferred” measure of inflation came in at 2.5% on Friday (core was slightly higher).

    There are three things I think are worth pointing out:

    • The “favorite” measure, whether by design or coincidence, has struggled to be above 2% for extended periods. It is almost like you pick a favorite measure that lets you bias policy towards easing, since it doesn’t often or naturally get above 2%. Above 2.5% is almost an anomaly for this metric.

    • Remember back when we were finally getting above 2% inflation, and the Fed “rotated” from a sort of “hard target” to an “average target?” The Fed shouldn’t react to inflation above 2% after extended periods below 2% because they have to think in terms of averages, not absolutes. If that thinking was prominent today, we would need deflation for a year or two, to get averages back to below 2% (depending on whether you are thinking in terms of 1-to-3-year averages, or 5-to-10-year averages).

    • Transitory. Enough said, other than that it highlights a propensity within the Fed towards easier money, rather than tighter fiscal policy.

    The Fed has “rotated” into methodologies and views that let them be more dovish than might otherwise be expected. That is happening right now, but their thought process hasn’t always worked.

    This “rotation” should largely be expected, but it is fully priced in. However, is the risk balanced appropriately if the data comes in “soft enough” (under their new “guidelines”) to allow for more cuts, or for it to be “inflationary enough” that the Fed winds up disappointing markets?

    On the bright side, markets seem to be moving far more on economic data (which has been strong) than overreacting to Fed jawboning. The equity market rallied strongly even as multiple rate cuts were priced out of the market.

    Really not sure what conclusion to draw from this latest “rotation” of Fed thinking, other than it seems to be their predilection to find ways to “pivot” to easier monetary policy. However, their track record for being able to follow through has been mixed.

    Crypto

    I remember back when Bitcoin was “better than money” and a mechanism for transacting (someone bought a pizza for 10 coins). I also remember when Bitcoin was an inflation hedge. I remember when Long Island Iced Tea became Long Blockchain Corp and rallied. I also vaguely remember things similar to this occurring regarding the metaverse, and of late, how everything suddenly has an “AI” component (either in its function or design).

    One thing that has been consistent about crypto is that it has always been about adoption.

    The reasons for adoption have changed, but the need for new adoption, and the ability to attract it, has been crucial to timing Bitcoin markets.

    Now, as far as I can tell, the Bitcoin argument has simplified to:

    • Scarcity. There is a limit to the number of ones and zeros that can be created. I rarely hear “use” cases any longer, so scarcity has bubbled to the surface.
    • On a more technical note, we have the “halving.” The reward for mining is cut in half, as Bitcoin makes new supply more “scarce.” The halving has accompanied rallies in the past, therefore, it will again, especially since it is tied to “scarcity” which is now the main selling point.

    So, the scarcity argument is now designed to drive RIAs into Bitcoin. Bitcoin was so “complex” that RIAs managing billions couldn’t figure out how to do it. But now, the ease of ETFs (which should be anathema to Bitcoin purists) is the ticket to adoption and success.

    Bitcoin ETF assets grew to around $55 billion late last week.

    • Bitcoin ETFs started with a massive head start as GBTC, formerly a Unit Trust, converted to an ETF.
    • Bitcoin was around $40k when the ETFs were launched and is now at $70k, helping the asset size grow.
    • So, there has been some adoption, but:
      • It has been a drop in the bucket (somewhere around $10 billion in new money) for an “asset” worth $1.4 trillion.
      • Even some big proponents have been commenting on how relatively small flows have outsized price moves associated with them.

    Maybe the scarcity, halving, and “RIA adoption” story is enough? Certainly, Bitcoiners have been awesome at creating and evolving their rationale as to why you need to own Bitcoin.

    This “pivot” or “rotation” on what is used to create FOMO is impressive, but I’m still not getting a strong sense of greater adoption. Yes, in our world, if it keeps going up, it will gather more adoption as FOMO kicks in. However, a decline seems unlikely to trigger a buying opportunity, at least in the minds of many RIAs who admit a 1% allocation is small, but also don’t see buying anything they don’t believe in.

    Finally, on the theme of rotations, Gensler rotated into approval. Part of me now wonders if, in the back end, many will rue the day that the ETFs were created. One thing that seemed prevalent in the “old days” of crypto was the inability to substantiate claims, or even sue. I wonder if that is changing?

    Wouldn’t short this here, but it seems incredibly overdone based on “scarcity,” the “halving,” and ETF adoption, which just doesn’t seem that great relative to the size of Bitcoin.

    Ethereum, and some others that are still sticking to “use” cases other than scarcity, could be more interesting over time.

    Carry Trades

    So far, with the most dovish hike ever, the Japanese Yen has retained its use for funding carry trades. There has been some concern expressed that a hawkish Bank of Japan could upset the carry trade “apple cart” but yields are still a fraction of what

    they are elsewhere in the world, they sound dovish, and the Yen is weakening, even with the potential for some intervention.
    There has been no rotation in the carry trade, but that is something to watch.

    Private Credit

    I’m extremely comfortable with private credit, but we are running out of time and space today, so that will get its own piece later this week.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 03/31/2024 – 12:50

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