Feb 01

Today’s News 1st February 2023

  • Ivermectin: Could Population-Wide Distribution Have Prevented China's Recent Mass COVID Outbreak?
    Ivermectin: Could Population-Wide Distribution Have Prevented China’s Recent Mass COVID Outbreak?

    Authored by Dr. Sean Lin and Mingjia Jacky Guan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    China’s state-run medicare program recently failed to reach an agreement with Pfizer to import more Paxlovid, claiming the COVID-19 treatment drug is too expensive. This is despite the drug being offered to the state at a reduced rate in comparison with that offered to other developed countries. Lack of Paxlovid will leave only Azvudine, an anti-HIV drug the Chinese communist regime rushed through development and re-branded as an anti-COVID drug, as a treatment option.

    An ivermectin bottle next to a positive blood sample of COVID-19. (Novikov Aleksey/Shutterstock)

    Given the recent explosive spread of COVID and the resulting skyrocketing rates of hospitalization, finding viable treatment options is paramount.

    Ivermectin in India and Peru

    When the Delta variant broke out in 2021 across India, many states offered ivermectin population-wide. The efficacy of ivermectin in treating early and mild COVID-19 infections was confirmed in large states such as Uttar Pradesh—home to 241 million residents—where the use of the prophylactic dramatically reduced both the infection rate and the death toll.

    Data from a study comparing the efficacy of ivermectin in frontline health care workers. (The Epoch Times)

    Even among frontline health care workers, ivermectin proved to be an effective prophylactic against COVID-19. One study with 3,532 frontline health care workers from the All India Institute of Medical Sciences Bhubaneswar found that two doses of oral ivermectin (300 μg/kg given 72 hours apart) as chemoprophylaxis among health care workers reduced the risk of COVID-19 infection by 83 percent in the following month.

    In Peru, mass ivermectin treatments were conducted through a broad-scale effort called Mega-Operación Tayta, or MOT for short. Operation MOT was led by the Peruvian army and involved 10 states, where the excess death rate saw a sharp decline with an average of 74 percent over 30 days. In 14 states where ivermectin was administered locally, the mean reduction in excess deaths over 30 days compared with deaths was 53 percent.

    Lima, the capital of Peru, where the distribution of ivermectin was restricted, saw only a 25 percent reduction in excess deaths. The findings of researchers, detailed in the diagram below, show infection numbers, deaths, and fatalities across Peruvian states which implemented ivermectin (blue) and those which did not (red). The conclusion is that a reduction in deaths correlated with the distribution of ivermectin with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.002.

    COVID-19 data from Peru’s 2021 Delta outbreak comparing states that dispensed ivermectin (green) and those that did not (blue). (The Epoch Times)

    Ivermectin–The Wonder Drug

    Ivermectin was discovered in Japan during the late 70s as a derivative of Avermectin, produced from a single organism isolated at the Kitasato Institute in Tokyo. Since then, ivermectin has played an immeasurable role in improving the lives of billions with its humble beginnings as an anti-parasitic drug.

    Ivermectin, approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and deployed worldwide since 1987, has made major inroads against two devastating tropical diseases—onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis. In addition, some topical forms of ivermectin are approved to treat external parasites like head lice and skin conditions such as rosacea.

    Ivermectin is potentially effective against a host of viruses. (The Epoch Times)

    In addition to its anti-parasitic effects, a 2022 study published in the European Journal of Medicinal Chemistry Reports found that ivermectin has a strong potency at low concentrations against many DNA and RNA viruses, including HIV-1, yellow fever, malaria, West Nile virus, Zika, dengue fever, etc.

    According to the study, ivermectin has an amazing inhibitory effect across multiple species and can interrupt motility and reproduction in both arthropods (such as insects) and nematodes (such as roundworms). This explains why ivermectin is prescribed for parasite infections, and also sheds light on its potential as a prophylactic against vector-borne diseases. In insects and other arthropods specifically, it can interrupt the transmission of disease.

    Ivermectin’s Potential Mechanisms Against COVID

    SARS-CoV-2 is a virus that takes over host cells to multiply in the body. To enter the host cells, the virus binds to the ACE-2 receptor on the surface of cells which grants them entry. Ivermectin prevents the bonding process by interfering with the virus’s spike proteins—this is the same mechanism the vaccines use.

    If the virus slips past the cell membrane, its top priority is to infiltrate the brain of the cell—the DNA-containing nucleus—to start mass-producing itself. SARS-CoV-2 latches itself onto a special class of transport proteins called IMPs that have enough security clearance to enter the nucleus. In the case of a viral infection, ivermectin binds to these transport proteins and halts the interaction.

    Ivermectin inhibiting intracellular transport and viral production. (The Epoch Times)

    Ivermectin also inhibits the nuclear transport mechanism mediated by the KPNA-1 protein, which has a similar effect when compared with IMPs. Both proteins can enter the nucleus and ivermectin can effectively stop the virus from getting to the nucleus. In the event that the virus does manage to invade the nucleus—ivermectin also has a backup plan.

    For example, when the virus has taken over and initialized self-replication, it does so through a protein called RdRp, which is at the centerpiece of viral replication—and is directly inhibited by ivermectin with very high efficacy.

    Ivermectin Could Reduce Severe Lung Damage in COVID Patients

    Once COVID-19 reaches later stages, it may require intensive care for recovery. For example, white lung syndrome (a hallmark symptom of acute respiratory distress syndrome) now occurring in severe COVID infections in China, is a sign that the virus has deeply infected the lungs and may have caused cytokine storms (a severe immune reaction in the body) in patients.

    Other complications that arise from COVID-19 involving the lungs are conditions such as pulmonary fibrosis and hypoxia. Hypoxia occurs when the virus infects lung tissue to the extent that the alveoli, tiny sacs of air at the end of lung branches responsible for oxygen exchange, become scarred causing a severe loss of oxygen in the body.

    Cytokines and chemokines are responsible for inflammation, a natural immune system response to foreign invaders. However, a large number of cytokines released into the body all at once can cause a “cytokine storm,” wherein the body is flooded with armies of white blood cells that harm the body.

    A cytokine storm can be triggered through the TLR-4 pathway by the virus. The same pathway also triggers the release of nitric oxide, causing fluid leaks, dilating blood vessels, or even sepsis and fluid buildup in the lungs.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 23:40

  • "It's Going To Be Spicy": UPS Faces Upcoming Union Fight, Spike In Labor Costs
    “It’s Going To Be Spicy”: UPS Faces Upcoming Union Fight, Spike In Labor Costs

    United Parcel Service (UPS) is facing a spike in labor costs after a union contract expires in July, along with a possible strike which would throw package delivery into chaos if the company isn’t willing to meet the new demands.

    The Teamsters union, which represents 340,000 UPS employees, says the company needs to boost wages for part-time workers to over $20 an hour and eliminate a controversial two-tiered wage system, Bloomberg reports. Employees are also demanding air conditioning in vehicles as well as blocking inward-facing cameras that monitor drivers.

    “We’ve got some great arguments on why these folks should be paid,” said Teamsters President Sean O’Brien, who has promised members a hard fight. “We’ve got a great argument just on how much money the company’s been making.”

    In short, UPS CEO Carol Tomé has quite the problem on her hands. The company delivers 20 million packages a day in the US alone – making it  the second-largest ground courier behind the US Postal Service. An employee strike would make it likely impossible for USPS and rival FedEx to make up for the volume from UPS customers – particularly Amazon.

    A Bloomberg notes, a strike would have a much greater impact than it did in 1997, when UPS workers walked out for 15 days.

    “It’s pretty clear that it’s going to be spicy,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker, who has an underweight rating on the stock. Shanker has predicted UPS may increase compensation as much as 10% a year.

    Under the current contract set to expire in June, UPS had been benefiting from predictable labor costs, which shielded the company from wage spikes which have hurt FedEx – and which gave UPS a temporary advantage during the pandemic, when the demand for home-delivery surged.

    UPS is hopeful (or at least spinning it that way) that they can come to a speedy agreement with the Teamsters.

    “We have more alignment on key issues with the Teamsters than not. That’s especially true with respect to maintaining industry-leading pay and benefits, and delivering the best service in the industry with the best safety record,” said a spokesperson to Bloomberg in an emailed statement.

    UPS argues that it already pays its workers, especially drivers, much more than competitors. The average wage for a delivery driver with at least four years on the job is $42 an hour, not counting pension and health benefits, the company says. A typical wage for an experienced driver at rival FedEx Ground, depending on the region, is $20 an hour and usually comes with no benefits. The company also added 72,000 Teamsters jobs in three years through August 2021, which is more than was pledged under the current contract. UPS has about another 100,000 US workers who aren’t unionized.  -Bloomberg

    That said, the company’s ratio of compensation to sales is the lowest it’s been in at least 25 years.

    According to O’Brien, the starting wage for part-time workers should jump from $15.50 per hour to $20, in order to attract more part-time workers. He also has a broader goal of organizing more warehouse workers, including at Amazon, and intends to showcase the upcoming UPS contract as a shining example of the leverage organized labor has over employers.

    “We’re going to use the UPS agreement as a template to basically say, this is what you get when you work for a unionized carrier,” he said.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 23:20

  • Ukraine Proves We Learned Nothing From The Vietnam War
    Ukraine Proves We Learned Nothing From The Vietnam War

    Authored by James W. Carden via American Committee For US-Russia Accord,

    Days ago marked 50 years since the signing of the Paris Peace Accords which effectively ended American participation in the Vietnam war. One of the consequences, according to Georgetown University international affairs scholar Charles Kupchan, was that an “isolationist impulse” made a “significant comeback in response to the Vietnam War, which severely strained the liberal internationalist consensus.”

    As the Cold War historian John Lamberton Harper points out, President Jimmy Carter’s hawkish Polish-born national security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, scorned his intra-administration rival, the cautious, gentlemanly secretary of state Cyrus Vance as “a nice man but burned by Vietnam.” Indeed, Vance and a number of his generation carried with them a profound disillusionment in the aftermath of the Vietnam War. And for a short time, the “Vietnam Syndrome,” (shorthand for a wariness and suspicion of unnecessary and unsupportable foreign interventions) occasionally informed American policy at the highest levels and manifested itself in the promulgations of the Wienberger and Powell Doctrines which, in theory anyway, represented a kind of resistance on the part of the Pentagon to unnecessary military adventures.

    But such resistance didn’t last long. Only hours after the successful conclusion of the First Gulf War, President George H.W. Bush declared, “By God, we’ve kicked the Vietnam syndrome once and for all.” And kick it Bush did: In the decades following his 1991 pronouncement, the United States has been at war in one form or another (either as a belligerent or unofficial co-belligerent—as is the case with our involvement in Saudi Arabia’s grotesque war on Yemen) for all but two of the 32 years that have followed.

    Yet the atmosphere that now prevails in Washington makes it exceedingly difficult to believe such a thing as a “Vietnam Syndrome” ever existed. Indeed, President Joe Biden’s handling of the war in Ukraine has been met with rapturous approval from the Washington establishment, winning plaudits from all the usual suspects.

    But can the Biden policy truly be credited as a success when the entire ordeal might have been avoided by judicious diplomatic engagement? Are we really to believe that the war which so far has resulted in 8 million refugees and roughly 200,000 battlefield deaths has been worth a promise of NATO membership for Ukraine?

    While the war has seemingly ground to a stalemate, the legacy media and various and sundry think-tank-talking-heads have been busy issuing regular assurances of regime change in Moscow and steady progress in the field with victory soon to come:

    • Writing in the Journal of Democracy this past September, political scientist and author of The End of History and The Last Man Francis Fukuyama exulted: “Ukraine will win. Slava Ukraini!”
    • Washington Post reporter Liz Sly told readers in early January that “If 2023 continues as it began, there is a good chance Ukraine will be able to fulfill President Volodymyr Zelensky’s New Year’s pledge to retake all of Ukraine by the end of the year—or at least enough territory to definitively end Russia’s threat, Western officials and analysts say.”
    • Also in early January, the former head of the U.S. Army in Europe, Lt. General Ben Hodges told the Euromaidan Press that, “The decisive phase of the campaign…will be the liberation of Crimea. Ukrainian forces are going to spend a lot of time knocking out or disrupting the logistical networks that are important for Crimea…That is going to be a critical part that leads or sets the conditions for the liberation of Crimea, which I expect will be finished by the end of August.”
    • Newsweek, reporting in October 2022, informed readers by way of activist Ilya Ponomarev, a former member of the Russian parliament, that “Russia is not yet on the brink of revolution…but is not far off.”
    • Rutgers University professor Alexander J. Motyl agrees. In a January 2023 article for Foreign Policy magazine titled ‘It’s High Time to Prepare for Russia’s Collapse’ Motyl decried as “stunning” what he believes is a “near-total absence of any discussion among politicians, policymakers, analysts, and journalists of the consequences of defeat for Russia…considering the potential for Russia’s collapse and disintegration.”
    • And this week comes word, courtesy of Jacob Heilbrunn, editor of the once realist National Interest magazine, that “The German decision to send tanks to Ukraine is a turning point. It is now clear that Vladimir Putin signed the death warrant of his regime in invading Ukraine.”

    As Gore Vidal once quipped: “There is little respite for a people so routinely—so fiercely—disinformed.”

    Conspicuous by its absence in what passes for foreign policy discourse in the American capital is the question of American interests: How does the allocation of vast sums to a wondrously corrupt regime in Kiev in any way materially benefit everyday Americans? Does the imposition of a narrow, sectarian Galician nationalism over the whole of Ukraine truly constitute a core American interest? Does the prolongation of a proxy war between NATO and Russia further European and American security interests? If so, how?

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    In truth, the lessons of Vietnam were forgotten long ago. The generation that now populates the ranks of the Washington media and political establishment came of age when Vietnam was already in the rearview mirror. The unabashed liberal interventionists who staff the Biden administration cut their teeth in the 1990s when it was commonly believed that the U.S. didn’t act often enough, notably in Bosnia and in Rwanda. As such, and almost without exception, the current crop of foreign policy hands now in power have supported every American mis-adventure abroad since 9/11.

    The caution which, albeit all-too-temporarily, stemmed from the ‘Vietnam Syndrome’ is today utterly absent from the corridors of power in Joe Biden’s Washington. 

    The Vietnam Syndrome is indeed kicked: Dead and buried.

    But we may soon come to regret its passing.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 23:00

  • Bill Gates Addresses Jeffrey Epstein Connection In Uncomfortable New Interview
    Bill Gates Addresses Jeffrey Epstein Connection In Uncomfortable New Interview

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Microsoft co-founder and billionaire Bill Gates again responded to questions about his relationship with sex offender financier Jeffrey Epstein, saying that “there was never any relationship.”

    “I had dinner with him and that’s all,” Gates said in response to a question from an Australia Broadcasting Corporation reporter. When pressed further, Gates said that “there never was any relationship of any kind” after being asked if there is a connection between Epstein and the Gates Foundation.

    Co-founder of Microsoft Bill Gates attends a press conference on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos on May 25, 2022. (Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images)

    The reporter, Sarah Ferguson, asked if he regretted the relationship, saying that it went against the wishes of his ex-wife, Melinda. “You’re going way back in time. But yeah, I will say for the, you know, over [the] hundredth time that I shouldn’t have had dinners with him,” Gates said in the interview, published Jan. 30.

    Ferguson noted that Epstein was involved in “sexually compromising people” and asked whether his ex-wife warned him about that. “No,” Gates said.

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    Gates, one of the wealthiest people in the world, was asked in 2021 by PBS NewsHour anchor Judy Woodruff about whether he had a connection to Epstein or not. Gates at the time provided similar answers but stated that he had “dinners” with Epstein, whereas in Australian TV interview, he said that he had “dinner” with him.

    “What did you know about him when you were meeting with him, as you said yourself, in the hopes of raising money?” Woodruff asked Gates

    “You know, I had dinners with him. I regret doing that,” he replied. “He had relationships with people he said, you know, would give to global health, which is an interest I have. You know, not nearly enough philanthropy goes in that direction.”

    Gates conceded at the time that “those meetings were a mistake.”

    “You know, that goes back a long time ago now, so there’s nothing new on that,” Gates added.

    Pressed further by Woodruff, the Microsoft mogul asserted: “You know, I’ve said I regretted having those dinner, and there’s nothing … absolutely nothing new on that.”

    Melinda French Gates, his former wife, told CBS in 2022 that she wasn’t happy that he had meetings with Jeffrey Epstein. “I wanted to see who this man was, and I regretted it from the second I stepped in the door,” she said at the time. “He was abhorrent. He was evil personified. I had nightmares about it afterwards. My heart breaks for these young women.”

    Before the CBS interview aired, Bill Gates told news outlets that his meeting with Epstein “was a mistake that I regret deeply” and was “a substantial error in judgment.”

    Gates told The Times of London in May that those dinners were a part of efforts to fundraise but “didn’t result in what he purported, and I cut them off.” He added, “At the time, I didn’t realize that by having those meetings it would be seen as giving him credibility. You’re almost saying, ‘I forgive that type of behavior,’ or something.”

    Epstein Details

    Epstein, who was convicted in 2008 after pleading guilty to soliciting a prostitute who was a minor, died in August 2019 while he was awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges. Officials found him hanged inside his Manhattan jail cell, triggering widespread speculation about his cause of death.

    Jeffrey Epstein (C) appears in court in West Palm Beach, Fla., on July 30, 2008. (Uma Sanghvi/Palm Beach Post via AP)

    The New York City Medical Examiner’s office at the time ruled that Epstein, 66, committed suicide by hanging himself with his bedsheets. But in early 2020, Michael Baden, a forensic pathologist who previously worked for the same medical examiner’s office, alleged Epstein’s death was “more indicative of homicide” after graphic photos of his death were made public.

    A former associate and girlfriend of Epstein, Ghislaine Maxwell, was found guilty in 2021 of child sex trafficking in connection to the former financier. She was sentenced in 2022 to 20 years in prison and is currently serving time in Florida’s low-security FCI Tallahassee prison.

    During a recent phone interview with a British television show, Maxwell suggested that Epstein didn’t kill himself.

    “I believe that he was murdered,” Maxwell said in a Talk TV interview published on Jan. 23. “I was shocked. Then I wondered how it had happened because as far as I was concerned, he was going to—I was sure he was going to appeal.”

    Over the years, Epstein was reportedly known to have powerful friends and acquaintances, including politicians, business magnates, celebrities, and high-powered lawyers—further adding to the speculation around his jailhouse death.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 22:20

  • Biden Promotes EV Hummer That Pollutes More Than Gas-Powered Sedan
    Biden Promotes EV Hummer That Pollutes More Than Gas-Powered Sedan

    President Biden’s 70-person social media team tweeted a photo of the president in the new Hummer EV. They celebrated the president’s push to ‘electrify and greenify’ America.

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    The president has signed an Executive Order that sets a new target to make about half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 zero-emissions vehicles. The main idea behind the EV push is to “cut emissions,” according to the Executive Order. 

    Though there’s a dirty side to clean energy, one of these inconvenient truths is the very EV the president is sitting in pollutes more than a typical gasoline-powered sedan, according to the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE). 

    ACEEE revealed the inconvenient truth about the Hummer EV in a report last year: 

    Emissions per mile driven are lower for EVs than for similarly sized gasoline-powered cars, but they are not zero. The Chevy Bolt EV is responsible for about 92 grams of carbon dioxide (CO2) per mile when accounting for emissions from the electric grid. (The CO2 calculations are based on the national average, but electric grid emissions vary considerably across the country.) The gasoline-powered Chevy Malibu causes over 320 grams per mile. Comparing larger vehicles, the original Hummer H1 emits 889 grams of CO2 per mile and the new Hummer EV causes 341 grams, demonstrating that behemoth EVs can still be worse for the environment than smaller, conventional vehicles.

    ACEEE continued:

    The environmental impact of EVs isn’t just about the electricity generated to power each mile. The manufacturing process also causes the release of greenhouse gases at several stages, known as the embodied emissions of the vehicle. EVs in particular—with heavy battery packs—use minerals that need to be mined, processed, and turned into batteries.

    The pursuit of greater driving range and larger vehicles require increasing battery size, also increasing embodied emissions. Mining the minerals used for batteries has a significant impact on the environment and can have negative social impacts, including the well-documented human rights abuses surrounding the mining of cobalt, an important mineral for many EV batteries. More-efficient EVs need less battery to have the same range, which means fewer emissions and fewer of the problems associated with mining the minerals.

    Perhaps the people in power aren’t that bright after all … there’s an inconvenient truth to EVs, especially larger ones, such as the Hummer.

    And by the way, there’s a lot of disconnect between what the average working-class person can afford. Most folks can’t afford a $100k EV. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 22:02

  • Russia's "Sanction-Proof" Trade Corridor To India Frustrates The Neocons
    Russia’s “Sanction-Proof” Trade Corridor To India Frustrates The Neocons

    Authored by Conor Gallagher via NakedCapitalism.com,

    Russia, Iran, and India are speeding up efforts to complete a new transport corridor that would largely cut Europe, its sanctions, and any other threats out of the picture. 

    The International North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) is a land-and sea-based 7,200-km long network comprising rail, road and water routes that are aimed at reducing costs and travel time for freight transport in a bid to boost trade between Russia, Iran, Central Asia, India.

    For Russia, the “sanction-proof” corridor provides a major export channel to South Asia without needing to go through Europe. But Brussels and Washington, frustrated by their losing in Ukraine and inability to put much of a dent in the Russian economy, could lead them to take more desperate measures.

    Read MoreLately, Estonia, which has a population smaller than Russia’s armed forces, has been making noise about causing problems in the Gulf of Finland, Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur is talking about how Helsinki and Tallinn will integrate their coastal missile defense, which he says would allow the countries to close the Gulf of Finland to Russian warships if necessary. Estonia is also floating the possibility of trying to inspect Russian ships. From Asia Times:

     It is unlikely Estonia can carry out any inspections given that it only has two patrol vessels (EML-Roland and EML-Risto) and no other warships except some mine layers. But if Estonia even tried, it would create another friction point that Russia could exploit if it chose.

    There is also a strategic element. With Finland joining NATO and already a de facto member, the Gulf of Finland becomes significantly more hostile for Russia and there will be growing pressure on Russian political leaders to take action against a rising threat to Russian security.

    While Ukraine is far away, the Russians see NATO’s “ganging up” on Russia as a key issue for Russian security and stability. This brings the Baltic region into sharper focus because Russians see NATO trying to surround them and undercut their economic and military advantages.

    It’s hard to take Estonia’s bluster seriously but equally difficult to put anything past the neocons in Washington and their adherents in the Baltics. Regardless, Russia would prefer a trade route with India that saves time and money and avoids Europe.

    ©Peter Hermes Furian

    While NATO’s war against Russia has sped up the cooperation between Moscow, Tehran, and New Delhi, India and Iran are coming under various types of pressure that could delay full implementation of the corridor. And Azerbaijan, a key nexus in the INSTC, is a wildcard as it grows increasingly confrontational with both Iran and Armenia.

    First the recent developments on the INSTC:

    • India is helping to develop the Shahid Beheshti Terminal at Iran’s Chabahar Port in cooperation with the Iranian government.

    • Iran and Russia recently signed a contract for Russia to build a cargo vessel for Iran to be used at the Caspian port of Solyanka, which is being developed jointly by the two nations as part of efforts to strengthen the Caspian Sea transportation network.

    • RZD Logistics, a subsidiary of Russian railway monopoly RZD, has begun regular container train services from Moscow to Iran to serve growing trade with India by transloading.

    • Rezaul Hasan Laskar, the foreign affairs editor at Hindustan Times, says the strategic Chabahar Port in  southeastern Iran has “become more important following its growing use” but that “it needs to be connected to Iran’s railway network.” Iran has accelerated that project, and with an investment boost from Russia, is speeding up the completion of the Astara-Rasht-Qazvin railway, another transport corridor that will connect existing railways of Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran to the INSTC.

    In the meantime, most of the goods that Russia normally transported across the Baltic Sea to reach the North Sea port of Rotterdam now sail instead to India. Oilprice reports:

    Russian crude oil loadings from Baltic ports are on track for a 50% hike from December to January, Reuters reports, citing its own data combined with trader insights.

    Russian Urals and KEBCO crude oil loadings specifically from the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga will experience the increase, Reuters said, adding that the bulk of those loadings (some 70%) will head to India.

    In December, Russia loaded 4.7 million tonnes of Urals and KEBCO from the Baltic ports, Reuters said, citing Refinitiv data.Russia now accounts for approximately 25% of India’s crude purchases, while some sources put it closer to 30%.

    The increased trade with Russia is a primary driver bringing New Delhi and Tehran closer together – largely a result of Europe severing itself from Russia. According to Reuters, at the end of November Moscow sent India a list of more than 500 products it wants India exporting to Russia, “including parts for cars, aircraft and trains.” The report added:

    Indian imports from Russia have grown nearly five times to $29 billion between Feb. 24 and Nov. 20 compared with $6 billion in the same period a year ago. Exports, meanwhile, have fallen to $1.9 billion from $2.4 billion, the source said. India is hoping to boost its exports to nearly $10 billion over coming months with Russia’s list of requests, according to the government source.

    And with all the increased trade, New Delhi and Moscow are looking for more efficient supply lines. A study, conducted by the Federation of Freight Forwarders’ Associations in India, showed that INSTC will be 30 percent cheaper and 40 percent shorter than the existing routes. And according to the Russian Journal for Economics, freight traffic on the NSTC could reach 25 million tons by 2030, a 20-fold increase. For these reasons the NSTC is of vital importance to Russia, as well as a source of frustration for the neocons in DC and their foot soldiers in Europe.

    Strangely enough, even if they found a way to sever the Russia-India link, Europe would have to find a new seller of oil. For months India has been getting Russian oil at a discount and selling it to the EU at substantial profits. According to Michael Tran, global energy strategist at RBC Capital Markets:

    India is buying record amounts of severely discounted Russian crude, running its refiners above nameplate capacity, and capturing the economic rent of sky-high crack spreads and exporting gasoline and diesel to Europe. In short, the EU policy of tightening the screws on Russia is a policy win, but the unintended consequence is that Europe is effectively importing inflation to its own citizens. This is not only an economic boon for India, but it also serves as an accelerator for India’s place in the new geopolitically rewritten oil trade map. What we mean is that the EU policy effectively makes India an increasingly vital energy source for Europe. This was historically never the case, and it is why Indian product exports have been clocking in at all-time-high levels over recent months.

    It’s not hard to see why India has steadfastly refused to join the sanctions parade on Russia despite pressure from the west and continues to pursue the NSTC.

    Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now dealing with a major infrastructure crisis, however.

    The Adani conglomerate, which is led by Asia’s richest man who has very close ties to the Modi government, has lost billions in recent days following a report from New York City-based Hindenburg Research, which specializes in short-selling overhyped stocks. Adani owns everything from ports to coal mines and is heavily involved in all types of Indian infrastructure, which means the fallout could affect all corners of the economy – and Modi. Adam Tooze writes at Chartbook:

    But what if the biggest promoter-political-capitalist of all were to come under unsustainable pressure? It is not only inequality and power imbalances that are at stake, but the financial stability of the Indian economy. …

    Were Adani to find itself in real trouble, there can be little doubt that the real anchor would be the state. Adani’s rise and the fortunes of Modi and the BJP are closely tied. ..

    A more serious risk is that the panic spreads from Adani throughout the financial markets, forcing the Modi administration to make painful choices. As Bloomberg reports the shock and anxiety is catching especially amongst global investors who may swiftly reevaluate their weighting of Indian assets.

    It wasn’t exactly a secret that the Adani conglomerate was on shaky ground. As Tooze notes, Credit Suisse warned all the way back in a 2015 “House of Debt” report that “the Adani Group was one of 10 conglomerates under ‘severe stress’ that accounted for 12 percent of banking sector loans. Yet the Adani Group has been able to keep raising funds, in part by borrowing from overseas lenders and pivoting to green energy. ”

    The widely cited Hindenburg investigation doesn’t just go after Adani, but it also argues his success is tied to the government (and Modi) supporting him nearly every step of the way. Modi is already dealing with the headache of the recently-released BBC documentary about the 2002 Gujarat riots that highlights a previously unpublished, two-decades-old British Foreign Office report claiming Modi was “directly responsible” for that communal riot during his tenure as Gujarat’s chief minister. Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based political analyst believes the documentary is part of efforts to pressure Modi and writes: 

    It’s suspicious that the previously unpublished British Foreign Office report was highlighted by state-run BBC over two decades after it was written, shortly after the New York Times (NYT) implied that externally exacerbating communal tensions will be the West’s Hybrid War means of punishing India for [defying the West on their anti-Russian sanctions], and around the time that India secured its rise as a globally significant Great Power. These observations suggest that the documentary’s timing wasn’t coincidental.

    Modi remains highly popular, and a weak and divided opposition isn’t considered much of a threat, but the fallout from the Adani affair could change that. Just two weeks ago Adani was enjoying Davos and having discussions with Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev about petrochemical and mining projects in Azerbaijan. The West has also recently taken a great deal of interest in Azerbaijan’s energy future. From The Cradle:

    On 7 December, 2022, the World Bank released a report titled “Azerbaijan: Towards Green Growth” in which the authors stated that the:

    “Global transition towards a low-emissions economic model offers opportunities for Azerbaijan to be globally and regionally competitive. To make the best of it, Azerbaijan needs to focus on decarbonizing and diversifying the economy, bolstering innovation, and natural and human capital development.”

    From this Green New Deal agenda, Azerbaijan would certainly receive funding, but in doing so, it would be handicapped from developing its vast resources or playing a positive role in either the Middle Corridor or the INSTC.

    Five days later, the World Bank agenda was re-emphasized by USAID at a conference co-sponsored with the Azerbaijan-US Chamber of Commerce, the White House, and the Embassy of Azerbaijan.

    Azerbaijan, which is a key nexus of the NSTC, is threatening to throw a wrench in the plans as relations between Baku and Tehran deteriorate.

    On Jan. 27, an attack by a gunman carried out at Baku’s embassy in the Iranian capital left the head of the embassy’s security services dead and two security guards injured. Azerbaijan has now evacuated the diplomatic post. The next day, just as Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken was beginning a visit to Israel and after CIA William J. Burns director just concluded a visit,  Israel launched a drone attack on Iran. Aside from its other implications, the Israeli attack will further strain Azeri-Iranian relations due to Baku’s close military relationship with Israel.

    A more than month-long Azerbaijani blockade of ethnic Armenian-controlled territory is also causing concern in Tehran and Moscow as another conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan would be a major headache for the NSTC – although Russian-Iranian maritime connectivity across the Caspian Sea could bypass Azerbaijan.

    Both Iran and Azerbaijan have held major military exercises on the countries’ border in recent months. During recent protests in Iran, Tehran blamed Baku for using ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran to destabilize the situation, which is something the neocons have long written about doing. The Middle East Media Research Institute, which is run by Israeli and American spooks, wrote as recently as November about using Azerbaijanis in Iran to further their goal of regime change:

    In order to bring about regime change at home and contain Iranian expansionism abroad, Iran needs to be weakened from within. The international community therefore must engage Iran more effectively inside its borders through pursuing a “periphery strategy,” i.e., supporting the ethnic minorities found in its border regions. This will achieve two goals. First, ethnic minorities would finally enjoy the freedom and human rights they have been deprived of since the early 20th century. Second, this would deprive Iran of human and natural resources it needs to perpetrate its malign expansionism in the Middle East.

    An array of democratic ethno-nations in the periphery of Iran would create a “great wall” around the country. This “wall” would stretch from the Kurdish areas of Northern Khurasan to the Persian gulf in the west including Azerbaijan, Kurdistan and Khuzistan as well as Balochistan in the southeast and would limit Iran’s access to the outside world and consequently end its geostrategic importance regionally and internationally.

    For some idea of how this is playing out and the consequences, Responsible Statecraft writes:

    The Iranian angle is certainly one of the key reasons behind the hawks’ enthusiasm for Azerbaijan. During the war in 2020, they cherished the dream that Azerbaijan’s military success would galvanize Iran’s sizable Azeri community against the government in Tehran. That naïve hope failed to materialize as Iranian Azeris are part and parcel of Iranian society. However, the anti-Iranian irredentist narratives gained popular currency within Azerbaijan to a degree not seen since the early 1990s. Websites with close links to the regime’s security apparatus and defense ministry issued open calls for “southern Azerbaijanis” to secede from Iran.

    That was done in response to some outlandish anti-Azerbaijani remarks allegedly uttered by a retired Iranian diplomat and leaked to a Turkish newspaper. The diplomat in question, however, in no way represented the official position of the Islamic Republic. What followed — a seemingly coordinated incitement of anti-Iranian separatism in Azeri pro-regime media outlets — certainly looked like a massive over-reaction.

    Pro-Azerbaijan hawks in Washington may thrive on fomenting such tensions, yet that in no way serves U.S. interests. A military conflict between Azerbaijan and Iran would suck in other countries, such as NATO ally Turkey, which would back Azerbaijan. It would most likely also involve Israel as Baku’s close ties with Jerusalem are seen as a serious threat in Tehran. Israeli officials occasionally behave as if they are keen to add fuel to the fire. The Israeli ambassador in Azerbaijan recently posed with a book of “fairy tales of Tabriz.” Given that Tabriz is the unofficial capital of Iranian Azerbaijan, many Iranians perceived this gesture as an endorsement of the Azeri separatist agenda. A regional vortex involving Iran and Israel would increase pressure from Congress on any U.S. administration to intervene on behalf of Israel.

    Baku is closely aligned with Israel and Türkiye, but also maintains strong ties with Russia. Azerbaijan and Türkiye want a direct link across southern Armenia, which alarms Iran. This “Zangezur corridor” that Baku and Ankara want would connect Azerbaijan’s mainland territory to its Nakhichvan exclave that borders Armenia, Iran and Türkiye.

    Such a corridor is a red line for Tehran as it would cut off Iran from Armenia and encircle northern parts of Iran by Türkiye and Azerbaijan, which scares Tehran because there are roughly 25 million Azeri-speakers in Northern Iran that might get some pan-Turkic ideas. Iran would also lose its land route through Armenia to the Caucuses.

    Therefore, anytime there is fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which many observers think is on the verge of starting again, it threatens a wider war if Azerbaijan and Türkiye try to form their corridor, if Iran comes to the defense of Armenia, or if outside actors use it as an opportunity to pursue other goals.

    Russia used to exert a calming influence on the region, but its preoccupation with Ukraine has diminished its willingness to intervene.  According to the Middle East Institute, the pressure on Iran’s government from inside and outside the country is helping lead to Baku and Tehran seeing each other’s actions as a threat and responding with quickly escalating countermeasures:

    This self-reinforcing dynamic has created a spiral-like situation and increased the likelihood of conflict. A potential armed clash between Azerbaijan and Iran could have far-reaching consequences for the wider region that would likely draw in other powers, such as Turkey and Russia. It remains to be seen if cooler heads can prevail.

    As former Indian diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar wrote, “Azerbaijan is destined to play a key role in the great game in the period ahead.” It remains to be seen what that role will be. The neocons, who are quite good at manipulating others into quixotic wars, have dreams of using Azerbaijan to help topple the Iranian government, and unfortunately, Azerbaijan’s president has been compared to Sonny Corleone in “The Godfather.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 21:40

  • Start Of Bankruptcy Wave? Large Firm Filings Surge To 2010 Levels
    Start Of Bankruptcy Wave? Large Firm Filings Surge To 2010 Levels

    The US has transitioned from more than a decade of quantitative easing to more recent quantitative tightening. QT will remain until the Federal Reserve is finished squashing inflation. However, such a massive paradigm shift in markets might result in a period of deleveraging among highly levered firms that were able to flourish during the QE era. 

    New Bloomberg data shows large companies (at least $50 million of liabilities) filing for bankruptcy topped 20 this month, the highest in any other January dating back to 2010. Back then, 25 filings were seen as the economy was still reeling from the aftermath of the GFC.

    There is no doubt after more than a decade of the Fed unleashing trillions of dollars of credit into the economy via QE, a generation of zombie companies is in the midst of a painful deleveraging event as credit is harder to come by in QT. 

    QE has been one of the “biggest distortions came from keeping companies alive on life support that otherwise would have disappeared into insolvency,” research firm Porter & Co. wrote on our contributor blog (read: “The Hidden Debt Bubble You Didn’t See Coming”). 

    This month’s surge in large firm bankruptcies is set to continue, according to Damian Schaible, co-chair of the restructuring group at law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell, who spoke with Bloomberg. He said:

    “I think we’re going to see continued increased filings in 2023.

    “From a broader market perspective, it’s pretty simple: We have a market filled with companies with historically high leverage — thanks to the easy money policies of the past decade — and a not-insignificant portion of that debt is floating rate.”

    This year, some of the most notable bankruptcy filings have been festive retailer Party City Holdco Inc, mattress maker Serta Simmons Bedding LLC, and cryptocurrency lender Genesis Global Holdco. 

    There could be turmoil in the lowest-rated — CCC-rated credit space and hidden risks if a bankruptcy wave takes off from here. As shown below, distress debt is piling up. 

    Even though some investors don’t believe a hard landing is in the cards this year. The latest surge in large firm bankruptcies is an ominous sign of trouble ahead. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 21:20

  • Hedge Funds Push Chinese Holdings Close to Record
    Hedge Funds Push Chinese Holdings Close to Record

    By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and analyst

    Despite the world-beating rally in Chinese assets, positioning data show a clear dichotomy among investors’ views on the nation.

    While hedge funds have boosted their exposure to Chinese stocks to near an all-time high again, mutual funds – which tend to have a longer-term investment horizon — remain significantly underweight, according to Goldman Sachs. Such a divergence shows that Chinese assets are viewed only as a three-month “trade,” rather than a three-year “investment.”

    China’s manufacturing and services survey data Tuesday confirmed that the economy is bouncing back. The International Monetary Fund also raised China’s growth forecast this year by 0.8 percentage point to 5.2%, making it one of few major economies that may see growth accelerate this year.

    With the economy healing, it’s not surprising that foreign investors are scooping up Chinese stocks hand over fist. The inflow into equities via the stock connect in January reached a record $21 billion, already exceeding the influx for the whole year of 2022.

    But a closer look under the hood suggests a deep split between different types of investors. Hedge funds, who tend to be nimble, have increased their net exposure to Chinese stocks to 13%, from about 7% late last year, according to data from Goldman Sachs’s Prime Services unit. That isn’t far away from a peak of 15% in 2020, just before Beijing started cracking down on tech companies.

    In comparison, while global mutual funds’ holding of Chinese stocks has increased to 8% from 6%, they still are  underweight China by 420 basis points relative to their benchmarks, as of December. The current position ranks in the 19th percentile over the past decade, analysts including Sunil Koul wrote in a note.

    Source: Goldman Sachs

    There’s also a divergence between investors in different regions: the further away from China, the more cautious they are.

    The divergence, perhaps, comes down to cyclical versus structural views. After all, China can only “re-open” once. It’s a nice trade that fast money is willing to chase. But as life returns to normal, Beijing needs to grapple with the same long-term problems, including a bloated real estate industry, a shrinking population and increasing geopolitical tensions.

    On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan has halted direct investing in private assets in China. Separately, the Biden administration is considering cutting off Huawei Technologies from all of its American suppliers.

    Hedge funds are enjoying the reopening party, for now. For deep-pocketed, long-term investors, though, China remains “uninvestable.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 21:00

  • China Plans To Sell Lethal Blowfish Drones To Taliban: Report
    China Plans To Sell Lethal Blowfish Drones To Taliban: Report

    Following two major recent terrorist attacks which targeted Chinese nationals in Kabul, the Chinese government is desperately appealing to the Taliban to provide better security protection for its citizens in Afghanistan. The past week has seen multiple reports emerge saying that Beijing is even offering the Taliban advanced weaponry in order to bolster counter-terror efforts in the capital. 

    The US national security website 19fortyfive writes that “Rather than subsidize education or develop the country, it now appears that the Taliban will use its limited cash to purchase or otherwise acquire Blowfish drones from China.”

    Drone Copter Ziyan Blowfish A3

    The source describes the China-produced drones as follows: 

    The Blowfish is a potentially devastating platform. The mini-helicopter can fire machine guns, launch mortars, and throw grenades. Artificial Intelligence imbues them with the ability to determine who lives and who dies on the battlefield with minimal human input. The Pentagon has already expressed fears that Blowfish exported to the Middle East could end up in the wrong hands. 

    China is also said to be concerned about the security situation as it has its eye on expanding Belt and Road initiative projects in the AfPak region:

    Chinese officials also fear for the security of projects related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which have faced several attacks in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan in Pakistan.

    Both these provinces are adjacent to Afghanistan and officials in Pakistan have alleged that Baloch groups fighting for the freedom of Balochistan and the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operate from bases across the Durand Line with the active co-operation of the Afghan Taliban.

    In a fresh Tuesday report, Newsmax also writes that China is “planning to fortify its economic position in Afghanistan by providing lethal drones to the Taliban.”

    Demonstration of the Blowfish copter drone dropping small bombs from the Chinese manufacturer: 

    Other sources, including the Jamestown Foundation, have alleged a China-Taliban security ‘quid pro quo’ based on drone and other weapons sales; however, there’s been nothing in the way of official statements from either side, or clear confirmation.

    Likely, Beijing would view publicizing such a deal as somewhat embarrassing given both the radical Islamic nature of the Taliban regime, as well as its current inability to provide adequate security protection to Chinese businessmen and diplomats in Kabul.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 20:40

  • "Approaching A Near-Term Ceiling" – SpotGamma On Market Positioning Into The FOMC
    “Approaching A Near-Term Ceiling” – SpotGamma On Market Positioning Into The FOMC

    By SpotGamma

    Summary:

    Into the FOMC meeting and minutes Feb 1st, we believe the market is approaching a near term ceiling and downside opportunity exists in individual names which have recently been high performing or speculative (by buying put spreads).

    Rationale for ceiling:

    • We believe the market has front-run a policy shift by the Fed
    • We have near term resistance at 4100 at our Call Wall with peak resistance at 4200
    • With current IV levels being low, and also under equivalent measures of realized vol, there is reduced fuel for a squeeze

    Full note on implied volatility compression here.

    Downside opportunity:

    • Specific names like ARKK and TSLA have had very strong recent runs
    • The entire QQQ complex is up 10% in January, fueled by short-covering and 0DTE options

    Additional Context:

    Implied volatility compression (1 month IV < 30 day Realized Vol) in the SPX has been a signal that has marked equity market tops over the past year. This IV compression is in play now after huge rallies in equities, particularly in “speculative” names like ARKK (+29% in January) and in tech (QQQ +10% in January). We believe that much of the force behind this rally was driven by the combination of short covering and ultra-short dated trading activity like 0DTE.

    Along with sharp moves higher in tech, we’d also highlight that “value” stocks are back to all time highs.

    Last week, IV further compressed as strong treasury auctions led to the MOVE index collapsing, which likely persuaded the VIX to touch 1 year lows of 18 on Friday. Note, too,  the MOVE Index is now at 100 – the same level it was into the August highs. It was then at Jackson Hole wherein a hawkish Powell marked a major interim high.

    Linked to this, its clear that put demand is reflecting a much more sanguine environment ahead.

    Our conclusion here is that if markets want higher out of FOMC, there may be a fairly limited rally due to the sharp moves already made YTD. At the end of the day, interest rates are ~4% higher than 1 year ago which should reduce equity valuations year over year, making upside over 4300 uncompelling.

    We also believe that traders are positioned to expect this bullish impulse out of FOMC, which can drain upside momentum.  We therefore think that the best risk/reward positioning here into FOMC is to own puts/put spreads in the speculative/tech names which have rallied the most YTD. Any neutral to negative sentiment from the FOMC would likely hit those names asymmetrically.

    More from Spotgamma here

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 20:20

  • 'We Found No Misuse Of US Funds In Ukraine', US Treasury Says (With Straight Face)
    ‘We Found No Misuse Of US Funds In Ukraine’, US Treasury Says (With Straight Face)

    And now for some Tuesday humor, brought to you by the US Treasury Department, which sees no indication whatsoever that US funds have been misused in Ukraine, following last week’s massive political shake-up wherein some dozen top Ukrainian officials were booted from their posts amid persistent corruption, embezzlement and fraud allegations so glaring it even shocked the Ukrainians.

    “We have no indication that U.S. funds have been misused in Ukraine,” Treasury spokesperson Megan Apper said in Treasury’s first comments since the ‘shock’ resignations. 

    In the official statement given to Reuters, the US government also hailed the supposed “safeguards” which the Ukrainians have put in place, though without actually specifying any: “We welcome the ongoing efforts by the Ukrainian authorities to work with us to ensure appropriate safeguards are in place so that U.S assistance reaches those for whom it is intended,” Apper said.

    Via Reuters

    The statement fails to detail precisely how US authorities are tracking disbursement of the some tens of billions in funds that go from American Joe taxpayer, and into the pockets of the Zelensky government to dole out (other than referencing a digital system which supposedly monitors funds)…

    Apper said the Treasury would continue to work closely with the World Bank on tracking U.S. disbursements “to confirm that they are used as intended, as well as with Ukraine and other partners to tackle corruption.”

    Apparently totally unaware of the extreme irony, Reuters chooses to add the following facts for some further context and color to its report… and it’s perhaps all you need to know: 

    “Ukraine ranks 116 out of 180 countries on the annual Corruption Perceptions Index released Tuesday by Transparency International, up one ranking from last year.

    “Its score on the index was 33 on a scale of 0-100, where 0 means highly corrupt and 100 means very clean.”

    (…and note that Treasury Dept’s statement was issued on very day that the new corruption rankings came out… the “rise” on the index means Ukraine is supposedly ever-so-slightly less corrupt.)

    But again, don’t worry – nothing to see here – the US Treasury is assuring that when it comes to the well over $100 billion in defense and other foreign aid pledged as well as the many billions distributed so far, Ukraine is “very clean”. 

    See our viral report from last week for a review of the high-ranking Ukrainian officials who were forced to resign–Ukraine Rocked By Corruption Scandal, Wave Of Top Officials Resign: Sports Cars, Mansions & Luxury Vacations As People Suffered.

    As but one example, no less than the #2 defense minister was brought down. He had a direct hand in handling some of the very billions in US aid which the Treasury is now claiming was never misused. As we pointed out earlier…

    According to AFP, “the defense ministry had earlier announced the resignation of deputy minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov, who was in charge of the army’s logistical support, on the heels of accusations it was signing food contracts at inflated prices.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In the case regarding the food contracts, Shapovalov is accused of signing a deal with an unknown, shady firm. In his role as deputy defense minister, his is the most notable and visible resignation. Crucially he had no small part in overseeing the billions of dollars flowing from the pockets of US and European taxpayers as authorized defense aid.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 20:00

  • "It's Time For The Scientific Community To Admit We Were Wrong About COVID & It Cost Lives"
    “It’s Time For The Scientific Community To Admit We Were Wrong About COVID & It Cost Lives”

    Real “mea culpa”, ongoing and rapid revision of history, or further narrative management with regard ‘amnesty’ over what “the others” did to those who thought for themselves over the last few years…

    You decide…

    In no less a liberal rag than Newsweek, Kevin Bass (MS MD/PHD Student, Medical School) has penned a quite surprising (and ‘brave’) op-ed saying that “it’s time for the scientific community to admit we were wrong about COVID and it cost lives…”

    [ZH: emphasis ours]

    As a medical student and researcher, I staunchly supported the efforts of the public health authorities when it came to COVID-19.

    I believed that the authorities responded to the largest public health crisis of our lives with compassion, diligence, and scientific expertise. I was with them when they called for lockdowns, vaccines, and boosters.

    I was wrong. We in the scientific community were wrong. And it cost lives.

    I can see now that the scientific community from the CDC to the WHO to the FDA and their representatives, repeatedly overstated the evidence and misled the public about its own views and policies, including on natural vs. artificial immunity, school closures and disease transmission, aerosol spread, mask mandates, and vaccine effectiveness and safety, especially among the young. All of these were scientific mistakes at the time, not in hindsight. Amazingly, some of these obfuscations continue to the present day.

    But perhaps more important than any individual error was how inherently flawed the overall approach of the scientific community was, and continues to be. It was flawed in a way that undermined its efficacy and resulted in thousands if not millions of preventable deaths.

    What we did not properly appreciate is that preferences determine how scientific expertise is used, and that our preferences might be—indeed, our preferences were—very different from many of the people that we serve. We created policy based on our preferences, then justified it using data. And then we portrayed those opposing our efforts as misguided, ignorant, selfish, and evil.

    We made science a team sport, and in so doing, we made it no longer science. It became us versus them, and “they” responded the only way anyone might expect them to: by resisting.

    We excluded important parts of the population from policy development and castigated critics, which meant that we deployed a monolithic response across an exceptionally diverse nation, forged a society more fractured than ever, and exacerbated longstanding heath and economic disparities.

    A students adjusts her facemask at St. Joseph Catholic School in La Puente, California on November 16, 2020, where pre-kindergarten to Second Grade students in need of special services returned to the classroom today for in-person instruction. – The campus is the second Catholic school in Los Angeles County to receive a waiver approval to reopen as the coronavirus pandemic rages on. The US surpassed 11 million coronavirus cases Sunday, adding one million new cases in less than a week, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.FREDERIC J. BROWN / AFP

    Our emotional response and ingrained partisanship prevented us from seeing the full impact of our actions on the people we are supposed to serve. We systematically minimized the downsides of the interventions we imposed—imposed without the input, consent, and recognition of those forced to live with them. In so doing, we violated the autonomy of those who would be most negatively impacted by our policies: the poor, the working class, small business owners, Blacks and Latinos, and children. These populations were overlooked because they were made invisible to us by their systematic exclusion from the dominant, corporatized media machine that presumed omniscience.

    Most of us did not speak up in support of alternative views, and many of us tried to suppress them. When strong scientific voices like world-renowned Stanford professors John Ioannidis, Jay Bhattacharya, and Scott Atlas, or University of California San Francisco professors Vinay Prasad and Monica Gandhi, sounded the alarm on behalf of vulnerable communities, they faced severe censure by relentless mobs of critics and detractors in the scientific community—often not on the basis of fact but solely on the basis of differences in scientific opinion.

    When former President Trump pointed out the downsides of intervention, he was dismissed publicly as a buffoon. And when Dr. Antony Fauci opposed Trump and became the hero of the public health community, we gave him our support to do and say what he wanted, even when he was wrong.

    Trump was not remotely perfect, nor were the academic critics of consensus policy. But the scorn that we laid on them was a disaster for public trust in the pandemic response. Our approach alienated large segments of the population from what should have been a national, collaborative project.

    And we paid the price. The rage of the those marginalized by the expert class exploded onto and dominated social media. Lacking the scientific lexicon to express their disagreement, many dissidents turned to conspiracy theories and a cottage industry of scientific contortionists to make their case against the expert class consensus that dominated the pandemic mainstream. Labeling this speech “misinformation” and blaming it on “scientific illiteracy” and “ignorance,” the government conspired with Big Tech to aggressively suppress it, erasing the valid political concerns of the government’s opponents.

    And this despite the fact that pandemic policy was created by a razor-thin sliver of American society who anointed themselves to preside over the working class—members of academia, government, medicine, journalism, tech, and public health, who are highly educated and privileged. From the comfort of their privilege, this elite prizes paternalism, as opposed to average Americans who laud self-reliance and whose daily lives routinely demand that they reckon with risk. That many of our leaders neglected to consider the lived experience of those across the class divide is unconscionable.

    Incomprehensible to us due to this class divide, we severely judged lockdown critics as lazy, backwards, even evil. We dismissed as “grifters” those who represented their interests. We believed “misinformation” energized the ignorant, and we refused to accept that such people simply had a different, valid point of view.

    We crafted policy for the people without consulting them. If our public health officials had led with less hubris, the course of the pandemic in the United States might have had a very different outcome, with far fewer lost lives.

    Instead, we have witnessed a massive and ongoing loss of life in America due to distrust of vaccines and the healthcare system; a massive concentration in wealth by already wealthy elites; a rise in suicides and gun violence especially among the poor; a near-doubling of the rate of depression and anxiety disorders especially among the young; a catastrophic loss of educational attainment among already disadvantaged children; and among those most vulnerable, a massive loss of trust in healthcare, science, scientific authorities, and political leaders more broadly.

    My motivation for writing this is simple:

    It’s clear to me that for public trust to be restored in science, scientists should publicly discuss what went right and what went wrong during the pandemic, and where we could have done better.

    It’s OK to be wrong and admit where one was wrong and what one learned. That’s a central part of the way science works. Yet I fear that many are too entrenched in groupthink—and too afraid to publicly take responsibility—to do this.

    Solving these problems in the long term requires a greater commitment to pluralism and tolerance in our institutions, including the inclusion of critical if unpopular voices.

    Intellectual elitism, credentialism, and classism must end. Restoring trust in public health—and our democracy—depends on it.

    The problem was not people’s ignorance of the facts, it was the organized antagonism and censorship against anyone presenting data that was contradictory to the mandate agenda. This is setting aside proclamations like those from the LA Times, which argued that mocking the deaths of “anti-vaxxers” might be necessary and justified.  After two years of this type of arrogant nonsense it’s hard to imagine people will be willing to pretend as if all is well.

    The active effort to shut down any opposing data is the root crime, though, and no, it can never be forgotten or forgiven.

    People are still livid…

    One cannot help but notice that the timing of the Atlantic’s appeal for passive forgetfulness and now this op-ed mea culpa coincides with the swiftly approaching end of the COVID emergency declarations, amid a growing political backlash to the last two years of meaningless lockdowns and mandates, and Democrats were instrumental in the implementation of both.  A large swath of the population sees one party as the cause of much of their covid era strife.  

    Perhaps the mainstream media is suddenly realizing that they may have to face some payback for their covid zealotry?  “We didn’t know! We were just following orders!”  It all sounds rather familiar.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 19:44

  • The Inconvenient Truth About Solyndra
    The Inconvenient Truth About Solyndra

    Authored by David Hill & Jeffrey Kupfer via RealClear Wire,

    When Republicans in Washington talk about energy policy, one word often comes up: Solyndra.  Before the recent elections, headlines blared about this defaulted government loan guarantee – “Republicans look for the next Solyndra.”  

    With Republicans now controlling the U.S. House of Representatives, should they actually “look for the next Solyndra”?  What are the real lessons from it for both Congressional Republicans and the Biden Administration?  

    We believe there are lessons, and here’s what they are: (1) rigorous underwriting and continual oversight are necessary for government financial support programs – and that’s particularly important now, with billions of dollars in spending newly authorized by the Inflation Reduction Act; (2) loan guarantee decisions must be made solely on technological and financial merit – not politics; (3)  defaults may happen with the DOE loan guarantee program – its whole purpose is to take risk.  But that never excuses imprudent or politically-motivated risk-taking.

    We served as senior officials at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the George W. Bush Administration, including after Congress authorized the DOE loan guarantee program for innovative energy projects in 2005.  We helped write the program’s regulations and stand up the loan programs office (LPO).  We were there when DOE started considering Solyndra’s loan guarantee application – though not when DOE approved and issued the guarantee in 2009.

    Solyndra, a California solar panel manufacturing company, had requested a loan guarantee for more than $500 million.  Near the end of the Bush Administration, the DOE credit committee, which we had created and which consisted entirely of career officials empowered to do a thorough, nonpartisan review of projects, concluded the Solyndra application was, in essence, not ready for prime time.  

    Despite the pressure DOE was under to issue a loan guarantee, our boss, Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman never even considered overruling that committee.  As a result, the Bush Administration did not issue a loan guarantee to Solyndra – or anyone else. 

    In 2009 however, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act armed the loan guarantee program with millions in taxpayer dollars and the new Administration wanted to show it could do what the former one hadn’t.  Late that year DOE issued Solyndra a $530 million loan guarantee.  President Barack Obama even visited the company to tout the program.

    It took Solyndra only 24 months to burn through the DOE money and declare bankruptcy.  The federal government took a massive financial loss.  

    Critics argue Solyndra demonstrates all the worst things about government action and federal financial support.  They point out the huge financial cost to taxpayers.  They cite the political pressure from the highest levels of government.  They point to DOE’s legally questionable and ultimately unsuccessful actions to save the project from default and the Obama Administration from embarrassment.  

    The program’s defenders say sometimes things just go wrong and projects default – it happens in the private sector too.  They say the loan guarantee program was created to take risks; and even so, it regularly turns a profit and has a good overall loss experience.  They argue Solyndra officials weren’t truthful and that the current LPO office is better staffed and more diligent.   

    So who’s right?

    The DOE loan guarantee program was created to advance innovative technologies, enable new types of energy projects, and improve environmental performance.  It was to do that for projects the private financial sector might not be willing or able to support.

    With such a program, it is inevitable some projects won’t perform as well as expected.  Technology also may develop in unpredictable ways, and economic, market or political trends may unexpectedly change.  Defaults may happen, even with a perfectly run program.

    That said, the purpose of the DOE program is NOT to take risks only a sucker would take.  Political motivations or insufficient diligence can lead to imprudent risk-taking.  To avoid that, rigorous and transparent underwriting and oversight are important – particularly right now. 

    A loan guarantee default that costs taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars is never a good thing and can never just be waived off.  DOE must ensure that if defaults happen, they are not because the underwriting process was short-circuited, program standards were compromised to score political points, special interests were favored, or DOE had focused on financing marquis “signature” projects to score political points.     

    The country is undergoing an energy transition; accelerating new types of clean energy projects is an important part of that effort.  With unprecedented resources and a broad mandate, the DOE loan guarantee program can play a critical role.  However, that will only happen if DOE applies careful scrutiny, proceeds with transparency and without political favoritism, and ensures only high quality projects receive guarantees.  And both DOE and Congress must conduct vigorous oversight.  Failure to do all of these things jeopardizes the loan guarantee program and the clean energy transition itself.

    David Hill is a former general counsel of the Department of Energy and an adjunct senior research scholar at the Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy;

    Jeffrey Kupfer is a former acting Deputy Secretary of the Department of Energy, an adjunct professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s Heinz School and the president of ConservAmerica.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 19:40

  • US Job Openings Far Lower Than Reported By Department Of Labor, UBS Finds
    US Job Openings Far Lower Than Reported By Department Of Labor, UBS Finds

    When it comes to labor market data (or rather “data”), Biden’s labor department is a study in contrasts (and pats on shoulders). One day we get a contraction in PMI employment (both manufacturing and services), the other we get a major beat in employment. Then, one day the Household survey shows a plunge in employment (in fact, there has almost been no employment gain in the past 9 months) and a record in multiple jobholders and part-time workers, and the same day the Establishment Survey signals a spike in payrolls (mostly among waiters and bartenders). Or the day the JOLTS report shows an unexpected jump in job openings even as actual hiring slides to a two year low. Or the straw the breaks the latest trend in the labor market’s back, is when the jobs report finally cracks and shows the fewest jobs added in over a year, and yet initial jobless claims tumble and reverse all recent increases despite daily news of mass layoffs across all tech companies, as the relentless barrage of conflicting data out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (which is the principal “fact-finding” agency for the Biden Administration and a core pillar of the Dept of Labor) just won’t stop, almost as if to make a very political point.

    But while one can certainly appreciate Biden’s desire to paint the glass of US jobs as always half full, reality is starting to make a mockery of the president’s gaslighting ambitions, as one by one core pillars of the administration’s “strong jobs” fabulation collapse. First it was the Philadelphia Fed shockingly stating that contrary to the BLS “goalseeking” of 1.1 million jobs in Q2 2022, the US actually only added a paltry 10,000 jobs (just as the Fed unleashed an unprecedented spree of 75bps rate hikes).

    Then, it was Goldman’s turn to make a mockery of the “curiously” low initial jobless claims, by comparing them to directly reported state-level WARN notices (mandatory under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act) which no low-level bureaucrat and Biden lackey can “seasonally adjust” because there they are: cold, hard, fact, immutable and truly representative of the underlying economic truth, and what they show is that – as the Goldman chart below confirms – layoffs are rising far faster than what the DOL’s Initial Claims indicates.

    More importantly, Goldman also found that WARN notices also track the JOLTS layoff rate: WARN notice counts remained elevated in late 2020 even as the layoff rate declined, but this likely reflects unusual reporting delays during the pandemic and the exclusion of layoffs at closing establishments in the JOLTS survey, which WARN notices capture provided firms remain in business. Not surprisingly, Goldman’s tracking estimate based on December and January WARN notices for the large states covered not only shows that the recent drop in initial claims is unlikely, but that it is also consistent with a layoff rate of around 1.1%, higher than the 0.9% in the November JOLTS report.

    And now, another core pillar of the US labor market is being dismantled, and it has to do with the Fed’s favorite labor market indicator: the JOLTS report of job openings.

    As UBS economist Pablo Villaneuva writes in a recent report by the bank’s Evidence Lab group, Job openings in the JOLTS survey have not declined much since the March peak. Indeed, the BLS reports that openings were only 12% below the March 2022 peak in November and remain 48% above the pre-pandemic, 2019 average. This slight move downward has, as we noted recently, led to only a small decline in the vacancies-to-unemployment ratio, from 1.99 in March to 1.74 in November, still well above the 2019 average of 1.19.

    Of course, such a high level of job openings is alarming to the Fed for the simple reason that it means Powell has failed at his mission at cooling off what appears to be a red hot jobs market; no wonder the Fed Chair has frequently flagged the high level of job openings as a sign of ongoing strength in the labor market. The bottom line, as UBS notes, is that “the BLS measure, although it has declined, remains historically high.”

    However, as in the abovementioned case of unexpectedly low jobless claims, there may be more here than meets the eye. According to Villanueva, “a range of other measures of job openings suggest normalization in the labor market—softening much more convincingly, often to pre-pandemic levels” – translation: whether on purpose or accidentally, the BLS is fabricating data. Also, the UBS economist flags, job openings are not a great indicator of current labor market conditions—they lagged the last two downturns in the labor market.

    So what’s the real story?

    Well, as usual there is BLS “data” and everyone else… and as UBS cautions, other measures of openings tell a very different story: “Our UBS Evidence Lab data on job listings is weekly and more timely than the BLS series. The last datapoint is for the week of December 31. It shows openings down 30% from the March 2022 peak and only 25% higher than the 2019 average.”

    While BLS bureaucrats and Biden sycophants can argue UBS data is inaccurate, other longer dated series also indicate weaker openings. Take for example the NFIB Small Business Survey includes labor market measures that have correlated strongly with the JOLTS data over time but have weakened more sharply than the JOLTS measure in recent months. The percentage of small firms unable to fill open positions has a correlation of 0.95 with JOLTS openings since 2000. This series has declined 20% relative to the peak in May 2022 and is only 13% above the 2019 average. The NFIB series on percentage of firms with few or no qualified applicants tells a similar story.

    Finally, the “Opportunity Insights” measure of openings (see here) is also below pre-pandemic levels.

    So what’s going on here?

    As the UBS economist puts it, “in short, other surveys of job openings generally suggest that the BLS measure may be overstating labor market tightness. One reason to think the accuracy of the JOLTS data may have declined is that the sample shrank noticeably at the start of the pandemic. In 2019, the survey response rate was 60%. In December, it was 30%.“

    Or perhaps it’s not gross BLS incompetence (or propaganda): maybe it’s just a data quirk at key economic inflection points. As UBS observed in August, job openings tend to lag other labor market indicators. Ahead of the 2001 recession, the private sector job openings rate was still rising as private employment peaked and started printing negative. Again in 2007, as job openings were peaking, payroll employment in the revised data had slowed considerably, and job openings remained near their peak as employment was beginning to contract outright.

    Whatever the reason for the discrepancy in this latest labor series, the bigger picture is getting troubling.

    1. We already knew that the employment as measured by the Household survey has been flat since March even as the Establishment survey signaled 2.7 million job gains since then. Shortly thereafter the Philadelphia Fed found that contrary to the BLS “goalseeking” of 1.1 million jobs in Q2 2022, the US actually only added a paltry 10,000 jobs in the second quarter of 2022. As such, the validity and credibility of the US nonfarm payrolls report is suspect at best.
    2. A few weeks ago, Goldman also put the credibility of DOL’s weekly jobless claims report under question, when it found that initial claims as measured at the state level without seasonal adjustments or other “fudge factors” were running far higher than what the DOL reports every week.
    3. And now, we can also stick a fork in the JOLTS report, whose accuracy has just been steamrolled by UBS with its finding that job openings – a critical component of the US labor market and the Fed’s preferred labor market indiator – are far lower than what the Dept of Labor suggests.

    Bottom line: while it is obvious why the Biden admin would try hard to put as much lipstick as it can on US jobs data, the same data when measured with alternative measures shows a far uglier picture, one of a US labor market on the verge of cracking and hardly one meriting consistent rate hikes by the Fed.

    Which, considering that in less than 24 hours the Fed will hike rates by another 25 bps, is extremely important, and we wish that we weren’t the only media outlet to lay out the facts as the negative impact of continued policy error and tightening by the Fed will impact tens of millions Americans, not to mention the continued errors – whether premeditated or accidental – by the US Department of Labor. Alas, as so often happens, since nobody else in the “independent US press” is willing to touch the story of manipulated jobs data with a ten foot pole, it is again up to us to explain what is really going on.

    The full UBS report available to pro subs.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 19:24

  • After Surge In Auto Thefts, Seattle Sues Hyundai And Kia For Failing To Install Anti-Theft Technology
    After Surge In Auto Thefts, Seattle Sues Hyundai And Kia For Failing To Install Anti-Theft Technology

    The “blame everyone but the criminals” strategy being employed in most major U.S. cities – and contributing to the increase in crime while emboldening future criminals – doesn’t show signs of stopping anytime soon. 

    Case in point? The auto thefts in Seattle have gotten so bad that city attorneys in the liberal-run utopia are hilariously suing the manufacturers of Hyundai and Kia for failing to install anti-theft technology on their vehicles.

    Talk about missing the point.

    As Axios pointed out, auto thefts across the country have been on a surge over the last few years. In Seattle, Hyundai and Kia thefts were 620% higher than other auto brands. Perhaps this is what has motivated Seattle City Attorney Ann Davison to sue the manufacturers. 

    Most thefts have taken place in Northgate, Capitol Hill, Central District and Beacon Hill, the report says. “The city is seeking unspecified damages and asking the car manufacturers to fix the problem,” Axios wrote. 

    The suit claims that “Hyundai and Kia failed to use immobilizer technology that ensured car ignitions could not be started without their keys long after other carmakers had adopted the same technology”. This made the two brands of vehicles “easier to steal”, the report says.

    It also blames YouTube videos that “showed how to steal car models simply by removing a plastic piece under the steering wheel and using a USB cord and turning it like a key”. 

    This, of course, takes the focus away from the rise in criminals attempting to get into property that isn’t theirs to begin with. Perhaps someone should inform that the first thing someone needs to do to steal a car, is break and enter into property that isn’t theirs. Maybe that’ll help realign expectations before this suit is hastily thrown out of court. 

    Hyundai rightfully dismissed the lawsuit as “improper and unnecessary”, telling Axios that “Hyundai Motor America has made engine immobilizers standard on all vehicles produced as of November 2021.” They also said that “Owners of past models can also bring their vehicles to a local Hyundai dealer for the purchase and installation of a customized security kit…”

    And, of course, this is why we expect the exodus from cities like Seattle, and those of its ilk, to continue. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 19:20

  • Iran, Russia Integrate Banking Systems To Bypass Sanctions
    Iran, Russia Integrate Banking Systems To Bypass Sanctions

    Via The Cradle,

    A top Iranian official announced this week that Iran and Russia had integrated their interbank communication and transfer systems to help enhance trade and financial operations in an effort to bypass strict economic sanctions on their financial infrastructure.

    With the signing of the agreement, 52 Iranian and 106 Russian banks are connected through the Russian Financial Message Transfer System, which will facilitate economic relations between the two countries, said Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Iran Mohsen Karimi.

    “This system is immune to sanctions as it is based on the infrastructures of both countries,” Karimi said, according to Iran’s Mehr news agency.

    The global consortium SWIFT, the world leader in secure financial messaging services, excluded Iranian banks from its system following the reimposition of economic sanctions by the United States on Iran in 2018.

    As a result of that suspension of services, the Iranian banking system is disconnected from the international one, making banking transactions with other countries difficult. Russia was partially excluded from SWIFT last year due to its invasion of Ukraine.

    While economic relations between the two countries have grown to 4 billion in recent years, Tehran has sold drones to Russia, which it has used in its invasion of Ukraine.

    Official trips between the two countries have also multiplied in recent months, with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visiting Russia in January 2022 and Iranian Foreign Minister Hosein Amir Abdolahian making two trips to the Russian capital in less than a year.

    “In today’s world, a country’s status is largely related to its economic power … We need economic growth to maintain our regional and global position,” Iran’s top authority, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said in a televised speech.

    Additionally, deputy governor of Iran’s Central Bank, Mohsen Karimi, announced: “Iranian banks no longer need to use SWIFT… with Russian banks, which can be for the opening of Letters of Credit and transfers or warranties.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 19:00

  • Big-Tech, Bitcoin, & Bullion Best January In Decades; Yield Curve Crashes To Record Inversion
    Big-Tech, Bitcoin, & Bullion Best January In Decades; Yield Curve Crashes To Record Inversion

    January saw the return of the “QE trade”… or more appropriately, a de-hawking of The Fed as the narrative rapidly shifted from hyped-inflation and growth scares to ‘soft landing’ and Fed-Pause/Pivot… and everything’s awesome.

    Overall January saw macro surprise data flat in January as ‘soft’ survey data tumbled (along with weaker ‘hard’ industrial data) but offset by a number of questionably strong labor market indications…

    Source: Bloomberg

    However, despite the narrative shift, January saw rate expectations barely budge… terminal rate dropped around 4bps while rate-cut exp fell 3bps…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The market is locked-and-loaded for a 25bps hike tomorrow by The Fed, it also prices an 83% chance of a 25bps hike in March and 42% odds of a 25bps hike in April…

    Source: Bloomberg

    But that never stopped stocks from fully embracing the dovish hope, with Nasdaq soaring over 10% in January. The Dow lagged with a meager 2.4% return…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Stocks melted up into today’s month-end close (on a massive MOC buy), erasing all of yesterday’s selling pressure from the open…

    Nasdaq soared to its best January since 2001…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Who could have seen that coming!!??

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    The January shift in the growth and inflation outlooks have helped support a laggards-to-leaders (dash for trash) trade within the S&P 500…

    At the stock level, 9 of the 10 best performing stocks in January also underperformed the S&P 500 over the last 12 months – also highlighting a laggard-to-leaders trade.

    And if you needed more evidence of the ‘quality’ of the rally, “most shorted” stocks soared 19% in January – the biggest monthly short squeeze since January 2021 – which marked the record high in stocks…

    Source: Bloomberg

    And all that exuberance pushed financial conditions to their loosest since June (when Fed Funds were 350bps lower)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    That is the 3rd month of ‘easing’ financial conditions in the last four, after financial conditions reached their tightest since 2016…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Is that the “unwarranted easing” that The Fed warned about in its latest Minutes?

    Treasury yields ended the month of January significantly lower with the short-end lagging (2Y -22bps) and the belly outperforming (5Y -37bps)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    That is the second biggest monthly drop in the 5Y yield since March 2020 (the peak of Fed intervention amid the COVID lockdowns)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The yield curve collapsed further in January with Fed Chair Powell’s favorite signals (3m spot – 18m fwd 3m bill yield spread) crashing to its most inverted ever right as the dot-com boom busted…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar fell for the 4th straight month in January, with the greenback sparking a ‘death cross’…

    Source: Bloomberg

    …with one of the largest 3mo declines in the world’s reserve currency in history…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold surged for the 3rd straight month in a row, back above $1900 (to its highest since April 2022 and notably above the 2011 highs)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    …up 18%, its best such move since August 2011…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bear in mind that gold has dramatically decoupled from the resurgence in real yields…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bitcoin saw its best start to a year since 2013, up almost 40% in January…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bitcoin is back above $23,000, erasing all the losses from the FTX FUD, now testing back to the Terra-LUNA / 3AC / Voyager collapse chaos…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Solana (hammered hard during the FTX debacle) was the massive outperformer though in crypto and we note that Bitcoin outperformed Ethereum (which still had a stellar 33% gain on the month)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Oil prices had a quiet January ending marginally lower (WTI rangebound between $78 and $82), which followed a quiet December (which ended practically unchanged in a narrow range)…

    January saw the biggest drop in NatGas prices since January 2001, with Henry Hub crashing to its lowest since April 2021, back below $3.00

    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, circling back to the start, the last time the Nasdaq soared as much as this in January, it didn’t end well…

    Source: Bloomberg

    This time is obviously different though… because inflation remains extremely high, govt debt is exponentially higher, and The Fed balance sheet remains ridiculously high.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 18:45

  • 3,000 Flight Disruptions Hit US As Ice Storm Sweeps Southern States
    3,000 Flight Disruptions Hit US As Ice Storm Sweeps Southern States

    Winter storm warnings and weather advisories stretched from the US Southwest to the Southeast on Tuesday as snow, sleet, and freezing rain canceled and or delayed at least 3,000 flights. 

    According to FlightAware’s flight tracking website, 1,300 flights had been canceled, and an additional 2,000 were delayed as of Tuesday morning. 

    Dallas-Fort Worth International, Austin-Bergstrom International, and Dallas Love Field were three Texas airports experiencing the most flight disruptions as an ice storm slammed the state. Cancellations and delays were also seen across the country. 

    The National Weather Service in Fort Worth said a winter storm warning was in effect in north and western central Texas until Wednesday afternoon. 

    On Monday, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott directed the state’s Division of Emergency Management to prepare for adverse weather conditions. 

    “The State of Texas is working tirelessly to ensure Texans and their communities have the resources, assistance, and support needed to respond to winter weather impacts across the state,” Gov. Abbott said in a press release.

    The ice storm will also impact Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee through Wednesday. NWS Memphis said areas could expect ice accumulations of a quarter to one-half inch or more. 

    After a mild January, a blast of cold air is pouring into the Midwest through this weekend. 

    A cold shot is expected for the Mid-Atlantic region, but temperatures could return to average levels by Sunday or early next week. 

    The Northeast will also see a brief chill. 

    On Thursday, Punxsutawney Phil will come out of his burrow in the ground and let the US know if an early spring is ahead or six more weeks of winter. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 18:40

  • Heart, Vein Disease Deaths High In 25-To-44-Year-Olds
    Heart, Vein Disease Deaths High In 25-To-44-Year-Olds

    Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Diseases of the heart and veins claimed more lives over the past several years among American aged 25 to 44 than before the COVID-19 pandemic. Even with the pandemic waning, such deaths remain elevated.

    An ambulance outside the Bellville Medical Center after dropping off a patient, in Bellville, Texas, on Sept. 1, 2021. (Francois Picard/AFP via Getty Images)

    In 2020, the first year of the pandemic, deaths caused by circulatory diseases increased by about 15 percent in the 25 to 44 age group compared to the year before, according to death certificate data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

    In 2021, such deaths increased by more than 20 percent compared to 2019.

    That means nearly 6,500 more deaths.

    (ZH: Related)

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    It appears that the increase may have been caused by multiple factors.

    COVID-19 sometimes causes complications in the circulatory system. It’s likely that some deaths, especially early on in the pandemic, were caused by COVID-19 but were misclassified on the death certificate.

    Also, many people were likely diagnosed too late or not at all because they were afraid to go to a doctor during the pandemic.

    However, diseases of the circulatory system continued to claim lives at a higher rate in this age group even in 2022, when the pandemic receded. In the first half of the year, such deaths were still more than 13 percent above the death toll for the first half of 2019, according to the CDC’s preliminary data.

    In the 45 to 54 age group, such deaths increased in 2020–21 but seem to have since receded back to pre-pandemic levels.

    In the 15 to 24 age group, such deaths have barely budged over the past five years.

    A growing number of experts and studies have associated the COVID-19 vaccines with serious, even fatal conditions, including heart inflammation, or myocarditis. They suggest that the spike protein produced through the vaccination can cause blood clotting and inflammation.

    “All cardiovascular conditions have gotten worse because of the vaccine and anything and everything that can go wrong with the heart has gone wrong with the heart as a result of these mRNA vaccines. There’s no doubt about it,” said Dr. Aseem Malhotra, a British cardiologist who has researched extensively the associations between the COVID-19 vaccines and heart issues.

    Malhotra has argued that such issues should be presumed to be associated with the vaccines until proven otherwise. He initially supported the vaccines but changed his mind after his father’s cardiac arrest six months after vaccination.

    Dr. Peter McCullough, a highly published American cardiologist, independently reached a similar conclusion.

    “When people are in a study or it’s in a post-marketing period in a brand-new drug, when someone dies within a few days, or certainly within 30 days of any new drug or injection, it is that drug until proven otherwise,” he told Epoch TV’s Jan Jekielek last month.

    “If this was in a regulatory dossier, it could even be something that’s seemingly disconnected. Believe it or not, in clinical trials, if someone’s taking a drug and they have a car accident, it’s attributed to the drug, because the drug may have made them dizzy or foggy or what have you.”

    The rollout of the vaccines also correlates with significant increases in other conditions, including eye problems, immune system issues, and, in some data, cancer, according to Josh Stirling, an insurance research analyst.

    Overall, the vaccination correlates with increased mortality, according to Stirling.

    “The more doses on average you have in a region within the United States, the bigger increase in mortality that region has had in 2022 when compared to 2021,” he recently told Jekielek in an interview for “American Thought Leaders.”

    Stirling has argued that if the vaccine’s adverse effects are properly identified, they could be mitigated.

    “If we were actually just screening for these people, the vast majority of these health issues, before they become catastrophic, could very easily be managed—not necessarily solved, but certainly managed with amazing medical advances and simple things like blood thinners, or changes in lifestyle,” he said.

    Mortality in prime-age adults aged 18 to 64 substantially increased in 2020 and onward, even with COVID-19 deaths excluded, according to a Dec. 15, 2022, paper that attempted to account for COVID-19 deaths misclassified on death certificates.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/31/2023 – 18:20

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