- The Leftist Cult Vs. The Trump Cult: Similarities And Differences
The Leftist Cult Vs. The Trump Cult: Similarities And Differences
Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,
Political demagoguery is a valuable and effective weapon in the arsenal of the establishment elites. As long as there is a wide ideological division between groups in society, biases and desires can be tapped and manipulated. This allows those in power to direct vast portions of the public down one path or another. When fear of an enemy and the drive to “win” become more important than truth and evidence, the population has tied its own puppet strings and handed them over to the spin doctors.
This is why the false Left/Right paradigm has been so useful to the establishment for so long. Anytime the public starts to wake up to the web of control, all the elites have to do is push one or both sides of the political spectrum towards extremism and let the people rage at each other instead of picking up their torches and pitchforks and tearing down the oligarchy. This method of division and diversion keeps the masses occupied and feeling as though they are accomplishing something while actually accomplishing nothing.
As Carroll Quigley, globalist insider and mentor to Bill Clinton, admitted in his book ‘Tragedy And Hope’:
“The argument that the two parties should represent opposed ideals and policies, one, perhaps, of the Right and the other of the Left, is a foolish idea acceptable only to doctrinaire and academic thinkers. Instead, the two parties should be almost identical, so that the American people can “throw the rascals out” at any election without leading to any profound or extensive shifts in policy….Then it should be possible to replace it, every four years if necessary, by the other party which will be none of these things but will still pursue, with new vigor, approximately the same basic policies.”
The false Left/Right tactic has become more and more exposed in the past decade to the wider public, and so the elites had to change their methods to adapt to the growing awareness. Conservatives in particular have started to leave the plantation, and something had to be done to drag them back. The liberty movement has become a force in western life with tens of millions of members. It is an unpredictable element that the establishment needs to lock down and redirect if they ever hope to achieve their goal of a “new world order”.
The elites have used two tandem strategies in this effort:
First, they pushed leftist indoctrination towards full bore cultism.
Second, they have attempted to co-opt the leadership of conservatives and the liberty movement using a political puppet figure in order to bottleneck our energy and momentum.
Leftist culture has become increasingly erratic and unhinged (even more so than usual), informed by elements of a new social justice fanaticism; a kind of religious fervor where faith in ideological gatekeepers is more important than facts. The majority of the left, while not necessarily part of this “woke” religion, is still influenced by SJW rhetoric. Delusional notions of “patriarchy” and “inherent racism” and “inherent sexism” are woven into the Democrat mindset today. They see oppression everywhere, and victim group status has become the social currency they use to acclimate to a fantasy world where big government and entitlements are the solutions to all the world’s ills.
The conservative side of civilization doesn’t participate in the oppression fantasies of the left. We don’t even speak the same language, as the left’s very vocabulary has shifted into an academic babble-language they simply made up to describe social dynamics that don’t exist and gender politics that are biologically and scientifically absurd. Reconciling with leftists in any meaningful way has become nearly impossible, and fear of their fanaticism is causing conservatives to assume that whatever these people hate, must be good.
Enter Donald Trump, a kind of artificially created focal point machine, a figure that is designed to absorb liberty movement talking points and then regurgitate them in an alphabet soup puddle on Twitter. This rhetoric is relatively effective in that many conservatives recognize parts of the soup and find comfort that Trump “must be on their side”.
I have outlined in numerous articles Trump’s dubious background and behavior. To summarize, we often hear lip service from Trump on anti-globalism and anti-elitism, even though it is an undeniable fact that he has saturated his cabinet with globalists and elitists.
We heard anti-banker talking points from Trump during his campaign, even though Trump has a longstanding relationship to the Rothschild family and works side-by-side with Rothschild and Goldman Sachs bankers in the White House. We heard lots of anti-Federal Reserve discussion from Trump and observations that the current economy is an explosive bubble engineered by them; yet he now openly demands that the Fed inflate the bubble further while he takes full credit for the fake stock market rally. We also heard many promises that US troops would be coming home and the long wars in the Middle East would end for America; this has not happened and likely will not happen as tensions with Iran continue to grow.
In other words, Trump is a skin job. A robot. A false conservative and false prophet of the liberty movement. He tells us what we want to hear while his actions say something entirely different. Yet, a lot of conservatives still listen to him, because they despise the collectivist religion of the left, they desperately want mainstream recognition and representation, and because they want to believe that there is a white knight out there in Washington defending their interests and their future.
The establishment understands these desires and exploits them. They understand that the more extreme the left becomes, the more tempted conservatives will be to jump blindly on the Trump bandwagon.
Mainstream media outlets like CNN have taken to referring to Trump’s base as a “cult” recently, which of course is the pot calling the kettle black; but it does not mean that the accusation is wrong. Trump’s base is indeed acting more and more like a cult, but primarily in reaction to the cultism of leftists. The crazier the left gets, the more Trump becomes a folk hero to the right. The more the media promotes fabricated Russiagate nonsense or Ukrainian conspiracy narratives, the more conservatives assume that the establishment is “trying to take down” Trump.
It is rather rudimentary reverse psychology – If the establishment media attacks Trump, then he must be “anti-establishment”. If the leftists hate Trump, then he must be good for conservatives. Nothing could be further from the truth, but if anyone points this out they will be immediately attacked as disinformation agents and purveyors of CNN talking points.
A common argument in defense of Trump is to ignore his associations and behavior entirely and focus on the prevailing circus surrounding him instead. People state indignantly that:
“Trump is under attack! They are trying to impeach him! How can he be working with the globalists if they are trying to get rid of him…?”
I would point out that there is a usefulness to political theater that goes far beyond trying to remove a president from office. Again, the media viciously attacked Trump during his election campaign, but if one understands that public trust in the mainstream media has collapsed in the past ten years, then one also understands that media attacks on Trump would only cause more people to like him and vote for him. The question then needs to be asked: Does the establishment understand this inverse relationship in public psychology? Or, did they completely overlook it?
I seriously doubt they are overlooking it.
If this is the case, then the frothing leftist rage against Trump, while partially real, is also 4th Generation warfare designed to trick conservatives into developing their own cult-like fantasy that Trump is our fearless leader fighting the good fight even though his presidency is tightly intertwined with global elitists. The impeachment itself comes at a time when a large portion of the liberty movement is waking up to the Trump con game and is questioning many of his activities and associations.
The establishment has put a lot of effort into creating the Trump versus Leftist circus, and they really hate the idea that a number of people are refusing to pick a side. For them, there is nothing worse than free thinkers who organize their own side separate from the false paradigm.
The impeachment, like Russiagate, is not designed to get Trump out of office. It is a Hail Mary attempt to pull liberty minded conservatives back into the Trump fold; to keep us predictable and under control. It is also designed to keep leftists feeling justified in their insanity. Remember, the crazier the left acts, the more fearful and malleable conservatives become.
The establishment likes Trump right where he is, and he will not be going anywhere, at least not until he has completely served his purpose. Whether that will be in the next year, or in another four years, it’s hard to say at this time. Obviously, the elites have to keep the left/right sideshow going at full volume until they are done using Trump as a distraction. They will “attack” him as often as needed to create the illusion that he is anti-establishment, and Trump will continue to play along to please his masters, many of them standing over his shoulder everyday in the White House.
The Leftist Cult and the Trump Cult are similar in their refusal to accept facts and reality, as well as their ability to double and triple down on delusions that are consistently debunked.
I have witnessed people on the Trump-train dismiss every blatant piece of evidence of Trump’s collusion with globalists on the basis that he is “keeping his enemies close”. I have seen them ignore his support for Red Flag gun laws, his refusal to pull US forces out of Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen, his hostility towards Iran, his support for totalitarian governments like Saudi Arabia, etc. They call it “4D chess” and simply move on. I have seen them shrug off endless data showing economic decline and proclaim instead an “economic boom”. I have seen them completely absorbed and distracted by the trade war and China while forgetting all about the banking elites that engineer most of the calamity in our society.
They act this way because they are afraid. The political left frightens them, they are searching for a hero to save them, and they are willing to overlook almost any skeleton in Trump’s closet in order to make their fantasy version of him real. But, the leftists are nothing more than a symptom – They are useful idiots, not the source of the disease. And, Trump is not the hero conservatives are looking for anyway. In terms of the liberty movement, Trump is irrelevant. He’s a footnote. The real work is being done by millions of activists breaking through decades of propaganda and exposing the truth.
The difference between the Leftist Cult and the Trump Cult is mostly intent: Leftists double and triple down on their lies because they are infatuated with collective power and they see the truth as an obstacle to the “greater good”. The Trump cult ignores facts and evidence on Trump because they are hyperfocused on collective defense. Leftists are seeking to micromanage the thoughts and behavior of the world while conservatives are seeking to solidify enough political protection to ensure they are left alone. The Leftist Cult wants to burn everything to the ground, erase history and rebuild the world in their image. The Trump Cult is trying to keep the last structures of American heritage alive; they have simply put their faith in the wrong champion.
The sad reality is, leftists and conservatives are likely far too alien to each other now to ever come to a diplomatic solution. The division in society is very real; it’s the division at the top that’s Kabuki theater. The liberty movement is the key to everything, as we are the constant target of establishment 4th Gen propaganda. If we didn’t matter, then the elites would not be spending so much time, money and energy trying to keep us in line. They need us to buy into the theater, otherwise we become an unknown element, a third party, a time bomb that could explode unexpectedly on them at any given moment.
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Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 23:55 - A Decade In Tech
A Decade In Tech
As the decade draws to a close, it’s time to look back at some of the things the past ten years have brought us. To think that people clinking their glasses on New Year Year’s Eve 2009 had no idea what an iPad was and couldn’t post a picture of the fireworks on Instagram.
As Statista’s Felix Richter rightfully points out, it was a different world back then.
You will find more infographics at Statista
While the 2000s will always be remembered as the eve of the smartphone era, the past decade brought us some of the world’s most beloved social media apps as well as several gadgets we wouldn’t want to miss today.
The PlayStation 4, launched in November 2013, went on to become the second best-selling video game console of all time. The Apple Watch (2015) helped wearables reach mainstream adoption and Amazon’s Echo rang in the smart speaker boom in 2014.
As for the next decade, we have no idea what to expect. 5G will surely be a big topic for the early 2020s and rumors suggest that augmented reality headsets could become a thing. With several technology companies among the world’s most valuable (not to mention most resourceful) corporations right now, it seems safe to say that the next decade won’t disappoint from a technological point of view.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 23:30 - We Were Warned About The Deep State, But Refused To Listen
We Were Warned About The Deep State, But Refused To Listen
Authored by Larry Johnson via Sic Temper ZTyrannis blog,
Many of the critical tools employed in the coup to paint Donald Trump as a tool of the Russians and to manufacture a pretext for removing him from office, were created more than twenty years ago.
I am talking about the surveillance state that the American electorate has ignorantly accepted as necessary in order to keep us safe from terrorists.
Despite previous warning from whistleblowers like Russ Tice, Bill Binney, Ed Loomis and Kird Wiebe, no action to rein in the surveillance monster was taken until Edward Snowden absconded with the documents exposing the vast amount spying that the U.S. Government is doing to its own citizens. But even those weak efforts to supposedly rein in the NSA proved to be nothing more than mere window dressing.
The spying got worse. Just ask Donald Trump and the members of his campaign that were targeted first by the CIA and NSA and then by the FBI. Fundamental civil rights were trampled.
The real irony in all of this is that Barack Obama, as President, took credit for helping revise the laws in order to prevent the spying exposed by Edward Snowden. But under the Obama Administration, spying on political opponents–both real and perceived–escalated. We know for a fact that journalists, such as James Rosen and Sheryl Atkinson, were targets and their communications and computers attacked by the U.S. Government.
We know, thanks to a memo released by Judge Rosemary Collyer, that “FBI consultants” were making illegal searches of NSA material using the names of Donald Trump, his family and members of his campaign staff.
Some of this NSA material came courtesy of the Brits and their collection on U.S. targets. Some of this material came from the NSA’s own collection and storage of all electronic communications and was obtained using a nifty NSA tool called XKEYSCORE. Listen to Ed Snowden’s description. Also, take time to appreciate the irony that CNN and other journalists were actually trying to report real news. Now they are full blown apologists for the abuse of the intelligence collection tools.
Six years ago, former NSA Technical Director for Military and Geopolitical Issues, Bill Binney, and Russ Tice, a former NSA analyst, appeared on the PBS News Hour. Once again, they make very clear the enormous nature to the threat to our civil liberties.
Too bad Donald Trump did not listen to their warning.
Given the robust, wide ranging ability of the NSA to probe all communications by any person in the United States, it is remarkable that no real dirt on Donald Trump was ever uncovered. Had such information existed, it would be in the NSA’s storage vaults in Utah and crooked CIA analysts under Brennan’s direction would have found it and used it. But that did not happed. The best the intel folks could fabricate were the salacious claims attributed to reports ostensibly created by former British spy, Christopher Steele. Turns out that the titillating account that Trump hired hookers to perform coprophilia (could of been worse, coprophagia) was nothing more than idle bar talk.
What has happened to Donald Trump can happen to any of us. It is time to take this threat seriously and put the intel agencies back into a properly monitored corral. Otherwise, we will lose this Republic.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 23:05 - America's Top New Year's Resolutions For 2020
America's Top New Year's Resolutions For 2020
For 2020, Americans are making the resolution to adopt healthy habits – concerning their finances as well as their bodies. A survey by Ipsos for Urban Plates has found that out of all participants who said they were making one or several new year’s resolutions, 51 percent wanted to manage their finances better and an equal amount wanted to adopt healthier eating habits.
As Statista’s Katharina Bucxhholz notes, more popular resolutions for the upcoming year also circled around improving one’s health, with a more active lifestyle and weight loss being favorite answers.
You will find more infographics at Statista
38 percent of participants wanted to improve their mental well-being or practice mindfulness, a sign of a growing awareness for these aspects of mental health. Despite environmental protection being an equally popular topic at the moment, only 22 percent of survey participants said they wanted to be more eco-friendly in 2020.
18 percent of Americans said they were making only one resolution, while an additional 20 percent said they would make more than one. The percentage of resolution-makers was highest among Hispanics. A total of 56 percent in that group said they were making one or more resolutions.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 22:30 - Strategic Folly & The Consequences Of America's Unending War In Afghanistan
Strategic Folly & The Consequences Of America's Unending War In Afghanistan
Authored by Lawrence Sellin via The Modern War Institute,
If a recent article published by the Modern War Institute at West Point, “Don’t Let Kabul 2020 Look Like Saigon 1975: The Dangers of a Precipitous Afghanistan Withdrawal,” represents the prevailing American views on military strategy, then it goes a long way to explain why the United States lost the Afghanistan War.
The authors did get the premise right concerning the dangers associated with a precipitous withdrawal, but by getting all the basics wrong, they offer all the wrong solutions.
The article begins with a whopper, that “a US/NATO military withdrawal must be managed responsibly to conserve the hard-earned gains on issues like civil liberties and women’s rights made over the past eighteen years.”
No. Anyone who has spent any time in Afghanistan beyond the confines of a headquarters or a walled-in facility would know that is a not a valid reason to maintain a military presence in Afghanistan because it is simply not something within our capability either to establish or sustain.
A proper exit strategy is a process of burden shifting in a manner that protects vital US interests, while preventing US adversaries from unduly benefitting from a withdrawal.
Just like military leaders and policymakers over nearly two decades and through multiple administrations, the authors fail to address or even identify the true nature of the war in Afghanistan.
From that omission arises all the misinterpretations of the present situation and the mistaken prescriptions for the future—most notably, the recommendation for continued nation building.
The time is long overdue for a reality check.
First, the conflict in Afghanistan is not an insurgency. It is a proxy war being waged by Pakistan against Afghanistan and the United States. It is similar to Pakistan’s use of terrorist proxies against India in Kashmir.
Pakistan has always viewed Afghanistan as a client state and a security buffer against what it considers potential Indian encirclement and as a springboard to extend its own influence into the resource-rich areas of Central Asia.
The American counterinsurgency strategy was never winnable as long as Pakistan largely controlled the supply of our troops in landlocked Afghanistan and regulated the operational tempo through its proxy army, the Taliban, which has maintained an extensive recruiting, training, and financial support infrastructure inside Pakistan, all of which has been immune to attack.
Second, Pakistan has never been an ally of the United States, but a duplicitous partner, pursuing its own interests in coordination with its true ally, China, while being generously funded by us.
Nowhere have Chinese ambitions been more clearly and publicly articulated than in a June 2018 China Daily article by former Pakistani diplomat, Zamir Ahmed Awan, who works for the Beijing-controlled Center for China and Globalization [comments added].
New [Chinese] initiatives for peace in Afghanistan are welcome, and may change the scenario in the whole region. . . . I believe, American think tanks and leadership, especially military leadership has already realized that this war cannot be won. The only option is withdrawal, the sooner the better.
Pakistan can play a vital role in a sustainable solution to the Afghan conflict [controlling Afghanistan as a client state]. Complete withdrawal and an Afghan-led [Taliban-led] solution is the only permanent way out. Pakistan can facilitate an honorable and safe passage for US withdrawal.
Peace in Afghanistan will allow economic activity between Central Asia, Russia, China, and the Arabian Sea. . . . It can change the fate of the whole region. Chinese projects like the Belt and Road Initiative and the objectives of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization [SCO]. . . . At the recent SCO summit, the Afghanistan president was invited as a guest and observer. Hopefully, the country will soon join SCO. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor may also be extended to benefit Afghanistan in the near future if there is peace.
Since that article was published, China has offered to extend CPEC to Afghanistan; China will build a military facility in and deploy Chinese troops to Afghanistan; Afghan military personnel will be trained in China; and members of the Afghan Parliament have recommended that the Bilateral Security Agreement between the United States and Afghanistan be canceled, presumably to be replaced closer security ties with by China.
Ultimately, America’s most formidable adversary in South Asia will be China, on which future US strategic planning should focus.
China seeks global domination. One vehicle to achieve it is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a collection of infrastructure projects and a network of commercial agreements in 152 countries designed to link the entire world directly to the Chinese economy through interconnected land-based and maritime routes.
One element of BRI is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), an infrastructure and development project, the backbone of which is a transportation network connecting China to the Pakistani seaports of Gwadar and Karachi located on the Arabian Sea
The guarantor of that soft power approach is the hard power of Chinese military expansion.
China plans to establish a naval and air bases on the Arabian Sea within easy reach of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. That military facility will complement China’s already operational naval base in Djibouti, located at another strategic chokepoint, the entrance to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
With or without US approval or participation, China intends to incorporate Afghanistan into CPEC and exploit the estimated $3 trillion in untapped Afghan mineral resources.
The wild card in that scenario is Islamist extremism, of which Pakistan, not Afghanistan, is the true epicentre.
Islamist militancy has long been an element of Pakistan’s foreign and domestic policies. Any threat by these groups to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is, therefore, largely self-created.
As early as the 1950s, Pakistan began inserting Islamists associated with its Jamaat-e-Islami party into Afghanistan.
In 1974, then Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto set up a cell within Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) to begin managing dissident Islamists in Afghanistan.
Under President Zia ul-Haq (1977–1988), Pakistan pursued a policy of aggressive “Islamization” with the proliferation of religious schools and religious political parties, resulting in a society that became ever more extreme and intolerant. Ethnic separatism was suppressed and Islamist fighters were found to be useful proxies for the Pakistani military.
One source of America’s current dilemma in Afghanistan was a failure by the Reagan administration in allowing the Central Intelligence Agency to blindly outsource mujahideen funding to Pakistan’s ISI, which funneled American money and arms not to Afghan nationalists like Ahmad Shah Massoud, but to pro-Pakistani Islamists such as Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Jalaluddin Haqqani.
It is an undisputed fact that the Taliban were created by the ISI, beginning in 1994, as a means of intervening in the Afghan civil war to influence the outcome in favor of Pakistani national interests.
Since its founding, the ISI and the Pakistani military have never stopped providing financial, logistical, and military support to the Taliban. The subterfuge underlying Pakistani policy was already apparent in the early days of the Afghanistan war.
The tens of thousands of madrasas, many unofficial, have offered a fertile recruiting source, not just for the Taliban, but for other Pakistan-based militant groups, such as Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba, responsible for attacks against India.
Contrary to the suggestion by the authors, it would be foolhardy to pump ever more international financial support into the region, funding largely supplied by the United States, an approach that would only benefit our adversaries.
Quite the opposite is needed. Financial pressure should be brought to bear on Pakistan for its continued support of terrorism and steps should be taken to thwart Chinese economic and military expansion in the region, including closer cooperation with India.
The only bargaining chip the United States has in peace negotiations is our presence in Afghanistan. The “presence” argument is clearly unsustainable. Between now and the beginning of a withdrawal, the United States should be identifying new forms of leverage, in the short term, to bolster our negotiating position, and, in the long term, as a basis of a new South Asian strategy.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 21:55 - California's Woke Legislation For 2020: Students Can't Be Suspended
California's Woke Legislation For 2020: Students Can't Be Suspended
Among the dumbest of the state of California’s new ‘woke’ legislation for 2020 is that it’s set to ban all public and charter schools from suspending students for ‘willful defiance’ in this upcoming year:
A California bill that passed the Legislature would prohibit schools, including charter schools, from suspending students for willful defiance.
That means if a student is acting up in class, teachers and school officials will not be able to suspend them from school.
“Fast Times At Ridgemont High” (1982) As if California public schools weren’t already woefully behind national education standards, despite the state pouring $90 billion into the system this year alone, schools will now be forced to keep kids on campus no matter their level of constant defiance and disruption to the educational process of others.
Under the law, SB 419, the only exception for which a student could still be suspended suspended will be for bringing a weapon or illegal drugs to school.
And what’s the rationale? Because of course, racism.
As a local NBC affiliate reported earlier when the bill was passed by the state House and Senate:
The bill by Sen. Nancy Skinner, D-Berkeley, would ban the suspension of students in grades K-8 for refusing to obey a teacher or administrator, a practice known as willful defiance.
“I’ve dealt with a lot of these cases,” said Berry Accius, founder of Voice of the Youth, a nonprofit mentoring program in Sacramento. “Unfortunately, I’ve had kids that have been suspended for sometimes three months.”
Accius said school suspensions are used disproportionately against students of color.
“African American males and females, they are suspended at a higher rate — especially the African American males,” Accius said.
No doubt the jobs of California school teachers and administrators just got immensely harder. It will take effect starting July 1, 2020.
Commenting at The American Conservative, Rod Dreher skewers the initiative and predicts the following outcome: “Now state legislators, in their wisdom, have condemned elementary school teachers and the well-behaved students — black, white, Latino, Asian, whatever — to the tyranny of brats.”
And more: “Progressives are dismantling the ability of a basic social institution — the school — to defend itself, and to maintain order sufficient to fulfill its function.” Further, Dreher notes the inevitability that “when the parents who can afford to get their kids out of the public schools do so, progressives will call them racist.”
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Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 21:20 - Ron Paul: Should Racists Get Health Care?
Ron Paul: Should Racists Get Health Care?
Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,
Political correctness recently took a dangerous turn in the United Kingdom when the North Bristol National Health Service Trust announced that hospital patients who use offensive, racist, or sexist language will cease receiving medical care as soon as it is safe to end their treatment.
The condition that treatment will not be withdrawn until doing so is safe seems to imply that no one will actually suffer from this policy. However, health-care providers have great discretion to determine when it is “safe” to withhold treatment. So, patients could be left with chronic pain or be denied certain procedures that could improve their health but are not necessary to make them “safe.” Patients accused of racism or sexism could also find themselves at the bottom of the NHS’s infamous “waiting lists,” unable to receive treatment until it truly is a matter of life and death.
Since many people define racism and sexism as “anything I disagree with,” the new policy will no doubt lead to people being denied medical care for statements that most reasonable people would consider unobjectionable.
This is not the first time NHS has withheld treatment because of an individual’s behavior. A couple years ago, another local health committee announced it would withhold routine or nonemergency surgeries from smokers and the obese. Since reducing smoking and obesity benefits both individual patients and the health care system as a whole, this policy may appear defensible. But denying or delaying care violates medical ethics and sets a dangerous precedent. If treatment could be denied to smokers and the obese, then it could also be denied to those who engage in promiscuous sex, drive over the speed limit, don’t get the “proper” number of vaccinations for themselves and their children, or have “dangerous” political views.
Government bureaucrats denying care to individuals for arbitrary reasons is the inevitable result of government interference in the health-care market. Government intervention is supposed to ensure quality and affordable (or free) care for all. But, government intervention artificially lowers the costs of health care to patients while increasing costs to providers. As demand rises and supply falls, government imposes rationing to address the shortages and other problems caused by prior government interference.
Rationing has been part of American health care at least since the passage of the Health Maintenance Organization Act of 1973. Every plan to expand government’s role in health care contains some form of rationing.
Advocates for government intervention in health care will counter complaints about rationing by saying the related health-care decisions are being made to benefit people’s quality of life. But, claiming government officials know how medical treatment can best enhance quality of life is as absurd as claiming that government officials know the correct prices of automobiles.
The only way to reverse the slide into national health care and rationing is for those who understand the economic and moral case for liberty to keep pushing to replace Obamacare and all other government intrusions into health care. Government-controlled health care must be replaced by free-market health care that empowers individuals to determine for themselves what does and does not enhance their quality of life.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 20:45 - After Woman Killed By Falling Debris On Seventh Ave., New York Revamps Facade Inspections
After Woman Killed By Falling Debris On Seventh Ave., New York Revamps Facade Inspections
220 buildings in New York must now take protective measures after a woman was killed by a piece of a facade that fell off a 17 story building near Times Square earlier this month.
According to the Wall Street Journal, building owners must install sidewalk sheds and the city is doubling the number of its facade inspectors to 22. It’s also increasing the frequency of facade inspections for buildings taller than six stories.
After 60 year old architect and philanthropist Erica Tishman was killed on December 17, building department workers went on an inspection spree, checking 1,331 buildings that had outstanding violations. About one in six of those buildings lacked proper safeguards and owners were issued summonses on Monday.
Tishman was hit by debris walking past 729 Seventh Ave. The building’s owner had already been issued a violation in April for failing to maintain the facade. In September, the owner challenged the violation in a city administrative court where a judge downgraded the violation to state that it didn’t pose an “immediate danger”.
Which it obviously did…
After the hearing, the building’s owner was issued a permit to put up a sidewalk shed and repair the facade, but no work took place prior to the incident. The building is owned by a limited liability company controlled by commercial real-estate firm Himmel + Meringoff Properties.
The company said the work had been delayed because a neighboring building owner wouldn’t give it access to perform the work. A spokeswoman for Himmel + Meringoff said: “The safety of our buildings, and our tenants, remains our highest priority, and we will continue to do everything to ensure the safety of the public in and around our properties.”
On Monday, city officials said that under new rules the city will reinspect a building within 60 days of it being found to have an unsafe facade, in order to ensure that safety measures are taken. Officials also said that if owners fail to install protection for pedestrians, city contractors will do it at the owner’s expense. Facade inspectors will now also conduct follow up inspections every 90 days until repairs are completed.
Manhattan Borough President Gale Brewer said: “The tragic death of Erica Tishman was preventable, and while these new facade enforcement efforts cannot bring her back to life, they can help avoid another tragedy.”
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 20:10 - The Biggest Crypto Winners And Losers Of 2019
The Biggest Crypto Winners And Losers Of 2019
Authored by Jinia Shawdagor via CoinTelegraph.com,
Even though the cryptocurrency industry is not new to ups and downs, 2019 has turned out to be the year with the most surprising reveals. The long-lasting bear market of 2018 moved market analysts to call it the year of regulatory reckoning, leaving many jurisdictions uncertain about how to treat cryptocurrencies.
image courtesy of CoinTelegraph
However, 2019 also turned out to be the year of the comeback, as big tech giants like Facebook moved from banning crypto to embracing it.
Escalating global events such as the trade war between the United States and China have shifted investors’ point of view on the utility of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, but there is still a lot to be done even as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission continues to turn down every other Bitcoin ETF proposal.
As the year comes to a close, here is a look at the companies, individuals and various crypto projects that managed to come out on top in 2019, as well as those that failed to mark the year as a positive in their books.
The winners
Bitcoin’s double growth
This year, Bitcoin and the entire blockchain and cryptocurrency industry celebrated its tenth anniversary as proof of the resilience of Satoshi Nakamoto’s creation. However, at the beginning of 2019, the cryptocurrency industry was just recovering from the so-called crypto winter of 2018.
Fortunately, Bitcoin kicked off the year with a bullish trend that resulted in an approximate price increase of 11% higher by the end of the first quarter. Anthony Pompliano, the co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital asset management firm, shared his view with Cointelegraph:
“Bitcoin’s price is up significantly in 2019 [as there are] more buyers than sellers on a net basis this year.”
As the trading volume and market capitalization increased throughout the second quarter of the year, Bitcoin led the market with a 165% gain as its price surged from $4,103 to $10,888. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s market dominance increased from 54.6% to 65%.
Among the reasons that have promoted Bitcoin’s continued growth despite a struggling market is the view that the digital currency can act as a hedge in the wake of increasing global uncertainty. This year, the U.S.–China trade war saw most investors look to Bitcoin and gold as hedges. Pompliano also told Cointelegraph that there were other contributing factors:
“The biggest moments probably revolve around the announcement of Libra and the subsequent reactions, both positive and negative, from various folks across the traditional and cryptocurrency markets.”
However, it was not all sunshine for Bitcoin in 2019. Over the third quarter of the year, a bearish outlook emerged as Bitcoin’s price decreased significantly as 100 billion in market capitalization was lost. Fortunately, even as the market struggled to gain ground against the bears, Bitcoin not only closed the quarter with the least amount of loss but also increased its market dominance by 5.4%. Ultimately, of all cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin’s performance has been the best so far.
Compared to assets from other markets, Bitcoin’s performance throughout the year is still far from tenuous. For instance, even though gold is regarded as a reliable store of value, its price has only increased by 17% since January. Even the S&P 500 Index, although with an excellent performance of +21%, is still dwarfed by Bitcoin’s growth throughout the year. Beyond price, Bobby Lee, CEO of the Ballet crypto wallet, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin has benefited from several major technological developments:
“2019 was a great year for Bitcoin bulls because of the advances in the open-source ecosystem. Lightning Network is increasing Bitcoin’s transaction capacity, wallets with built-in, user-friendly features (Wasabi, Samourai) are improving privacy.”
Gods Unchained’s rise to popularity
According to reports, Gods Unchained, a blockchain-based virtual card game built on Ethereum, emerged as one of the highest-grossing and most popular blockchain games in 2019. This came about after the platform completely sold out its Genesis Card Pack to the tune of about $6.2 million. This came about after Blizzard, the creators of Hearthstone (a digital trading card game) banned Hearthstone player Chung Ng Wai (also known as Blitzchung) for expressing support for the Hong Kong protests. The Hearthstone game developer also stripped Blitzchung of his winnings.
In addition to the backlash received from the gaming community, Blizzard’s actions were criticized in a tweet by Gods Unchained that claimed Blizzard “care[s] about money more than freedom.” Gods Unchained also promised to compensate Blitzchung for his lost winnings while offering him an invitation to their $500,000 tournament.
The tweet by Gods Unchained was retweeted over 10,000 times, and Google searches for the game have since surged. Unlike Hearthstone, Gods Unchained is decentralized and uses blockchain to ensure that players truly own in-game items and have the freedom to trade them at will.
In a move to give online game players long-term incentives, James Ferguson, CEO of Gods Unchained said that the game is “leveling up the outdated practices of the gaming industry.”
Coinbase’s continued expansion
In the past, Coinbase maintained a reputation for employing a rather selective strategy for adding coins to its exchange. As one of the big league exchanges in the crypto space, Coinbase is also known for having significantly fewer large-scale hacks. In a year that saw other major exchanges like Binance fall victim to large scale security breaches, leading to the loss of thousands of Bitcoin, Coinbase stands out as a reliable and safe platform.
However, the company was heavily scrutinized by Twitter users this year over its acquisition of Neutrino, a startup that collects cryptocurrency transactional data using the blockchain. For most Twitter users, this move seems to facilitate the exchange’s spying on its customers.
However, Coinbase’s move to acquire Neutrino is, according to a Coinbase blog post, part of its goal to support all assets while complying with applicable laws. In addition to acquiring Neutrino, Coinbase has doubled the number of listed cryptocurrencies on its exchange since 2018. Coinbase’s aggressive listing approach has seen the addition of coins such as Dash, Cosmos and Waves, to mention just a few.
The company has almost constantly been making news throughout the year, from making acquisitions to denying them, as well as securing multiple patents along the way. Meanwhile, Coinbases’s Visa debit card solution has also seen exponential growth this year, now available for use in even more countries.
In May 2019, the company also expanded its reach to more than 100 countries while making its USDC stable coin — previously only available in the U.S. — available in 85 of those supported countries. In comparison, Coinbase was only available in about 32 countries last year. Its aggressive expansion appears to be in direct competition to other global players like Binance.
Binance ventures further
Ask any market analyst and they will admit that initial exchange offerings have grown into a big business in 2019. Reports have revealed a high demand for IEOs right from Q1 2019 to Q3, not to mention the fact that they collectively raised over $1.5 billion in the first half of 2019 alone. Unlike initial coin offerings, the biggest determining factor for a successful IEO is the availability of liquidity, and what better way to access liquidity than launching an IEO on a popular exchange.
That is why Binance and its native cryptocurrency BNB have had one of the best years yet. As one of the biggest marketplaces for digital assets, Binance enjoys a significant share of the trading volume. The exchange’s performance has been so exceptional that the Binance Coin has gained value by 150% over the year. When taking everything into account and considering year-on-year growth, Binance Coin has even slightly outperformed Bitcoin.
Also, Binance expanded its reach with the launch of a fully independent U.S. arm of its trading platform. Despite heavy regulatory pressure that keeps the Binance exchange in the U.S. from operating in states such as New York, the company’s partnership with BAM, a registered money service in the U.S., has so far given the exchange some leeway.
The losers
Facebook’s uncertain Libra launch in 2020
Facebook’s announcement of its Libra cryptocurrency has been one of the major events of 2019. However, on the unveiling of Libra as a stablecoin backed by a select number of national currencies, U.S. lawmakers reacted with skepticism, summoning Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg to multiple hearings.
At its core, Libra is a stablecoin backed by real money and lets users buy, sell and send money at nearly zero fees across borders. According to the project’s white paper, Libra’s overall mission is “to enable a simple global currency and financial infrastructure that empowers millions of people.”
Libra’s white paper further claims that it will use “a new decentralized blockchain, a low volatility cryptocurrency, and a smart contract platform” to empower about 1.7 billion unbanked people. This will be achieved through the use of Facebook’s WhatsApp, Messenger and Calibra, which is a digital wallet designed for Libra users.
Despite Libra’s ambitious plan to empower the unbanked, the Libra project has not only come under heavy scrutiny from lawmakers but also faced internal problems of its own. While sharing his thoughts with Cointelegraph, Ballet wallet’s Lee expressed optimism about Libra, saying that although “legislators and regulators in the United States and Europe understand that non-government currencies are a threat to their power, government opposition will diminish over time.” Lee further explained:
“Governments will change their stance because they will come to understand that they can’t control or stop Bitcoin, and they will prefer to have their citizens use centralized corporate coins that can easily be regulated, monitored, and pegged to fiat currency.”
Despite Libra’s ambitious plan to empower the unbaked, the Libra project has not only come under heavy scrutiny from lawmakers but also faced internal problems of its own.
The U.S. Congress has asked Facebook to pause further development of the Libra projects, and cynics now believe that the project will not get out of the starting blocks without the government’s approval. Multiple European countries have also spoken out against the proposed cryptocurrency, while China announced that it will soon launch its own stablecoin, a national central bank digital currency, likely as a retaliatory measure. Furthermore, in the wake of increased scrutiny from government regulators, some of Libra’s high profile backers like Visa, eBay, MasterCard and PayPal have abandoned the project.
A rocky year for Circle
In October 2018, Circle, a cryptocurrency firm based in Boston and backed by Goldman Sachs teamed up with Coinbase to launch the Centre consortium. Counting on its reputation as one of the most well-funded crypto startups, the two companies aimed to help accelerate adoption of cryptocurrencies. Through the Centre consortium, Coinbase and Circle would increase liquidity to the crypto industry through the issue of a stable coin called the USD Coin.
In July this year, Coinbase and Circle broadened participation into their consortium in a move that will allow other financial entities interested in the project to issue the USD Coin. In the announcement, the Centre network mentioned that “a natural next step is to imagine a new global digital currency” that would include a basket of tokens backed by a variety of stablecoins. Simply put, Centre’s plan is to go with a Facebook-like approach to create a global currency.
However, Circle has had a rocky experience throughout 2019. Even though the USD Coin has received a positive reception, with Centre claiming that the stablecoin has been used to clear on-chain transfers worth over $11 billion, Circle closed its mobile app, reduced its fundraising goal by 40%, and laid off 10% of its staff between May and June this year. Just recently, the company let go of 10 more of its employees, citing efforts to streamline its services.
The latest news of layoffs from Circle comes after the recent transition of the company’s co-founder Sean Neville from his position as CEO to a seat at the company’s board of directors. However, a representative of Circle has denied any connections between the recent layoffs and Sean’s transition, telling Cointelegraph that:
“None of this is related to Sean transitioning out of the co-CEO role. Sean will continue to serve on Circle’s board.”
Craig Wright’s court battles
When Australian-born technologist Craig Wright claimed to be Satoshi Nakamoto back in 2015, most people in the crypto community were skeptical and thought nothing of it.
Most people expected that the Satoshi Nakamoto impersonator would have scurried back into obscurity by now. However, Wright and his claims have continued to headline the news throughout 2019. Wright claims that he invented Bitcoin a decade ago and mined over 1 million BTC along with his late business partner Dave Kleiman. After Kleiman’s death in 2013, Wright claims that he put the mined Bitcoin in the “Tulip Trust.”
However, the Australian entrepreneur and computer scientist was sued by Kleiman’s estate in 2018 for allegedly stealing up to 1 million Bitcoin. In the past, it is said that Wright and Kleiman worked together on mining and developing Bitcoin. According to Kleiman’s family, Wright stole between 550,000 to 1 million Bitcoin — worth about $10 billion.
The ongoing case led to Magistrate Judge Bruce’s ruling that ordered Wright to turn over half of his Bitcoin holdings and intellectual property from before 2014 to Kleiman’s estate, presuming he is indeed Nakamoto. On Oct. 31, the trials re-emerged after Wright pulled out of the settlement agreement to forfeit half his Bitcoin and intellectual property.
In addition to his court battles, Wright was scrutinized by the crypto community after presenting what was considered forged documents as evidence of him being Nakamoto in another case of Wright against Peter McCormack. Wright’s case against McCormack is based on the fact that McCormack’s repeated statement that Wright is not Satoshi is harmful to Wright’s reputation. Most recently, Wright presented another document that allegedly proves how he came up with the Satoshi Nakamoto pseudonym.
Bitcoin ETF’s continual rejection by the SEC
Even though U.S. regulators have always left a window for the possibility of approving Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the future, up until now, every single attempt to license a Bitcoin ETF has been met with failure. In October this year, an ETF proposal filed by Bitwise Asset Management in conjunction with NYSE Arca was rejected by the Securities and Exchange Commission for failing to meet legal requirements that prevent illicit market manipulation.
In fact, all Bitcoin ETF proposals presented to the SEC have been rejected on concerns about fraudulent activities and market manipulation. One of the main criteria for approving an ETF is establishing the underlying market of a new commodity-based ETF.
If the underlying market is resistant to manipulation, regulators can give the ETF the go-ahead. Given the complexities of the Bitcoin market, it seems approval from the SEC is unlikely. Despite the earlier rejection of Bitwise’s application, the SEC later announced that it would review Bitwise’s proposal once again.
While speaking to Cointelegraph on the realistic timeline of the first Bitcoin ETF approval, Charles Lu, the CEO of the Findora fintech toolkit provider said, “For a Bitcoin ETF proposal to gain SEC approval, the sponsor will need to prove that real price discovery is happening as opposed to market manipulations.” In Lu’s opinion, this will not happen anywhere soon, since the SEC would require “surveillance sharing agreements” with the big exchanges.
2019 and 2020
Overall, the crypto industry has shown some significant growth over the past year. Although volatile, Bitcoin is showing significant signs of growth. More institutional investors are looking into the industry to find more ways to invest as well. Even though there is a downtrend in market cap and trading volumes, prominent traders believe that a turn of fate might just be around the corner, especially for Bitcoin holders.
Out of all the winners and losers of 2019, perhaps Facebook Libra is one that stands to be most impactful in 2020. For most onlookers, it will be interesting to see whether Facebook’s Libra project will turn a new leaf and launch successfully in 2020. If it does, there is a high likelihood that big changes will take place throughout the entire industry.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 19:35 - Judge In Hunter Biden Paternity Case Mysteriously Recuses Hours After New Allegations Filed
Judge In Hunter Biden Paternity Case Mysteriously Recuses Hours After New Allegations Filed
The judge in Hunter Biden’s paternity case suddenly recused himself from the case on Tuesday, following a string of third-party court filings accusing Biden of financial crimes.
“…the undersigned Judge recuses from said case pursuant to the Administrative Plan of the Sixteenth Judicial Circuit,” reads a brief note by Independence County Judge Don McSpadden, who offered no explanation for the move.
The recusal came two hours after ‘defrauded investor’ Joel Caplan filed to become a party in the case, which included a witness statement from ex-Ukrainian prosecutor Viktor Shokin, who says he was fired for investigating a Ukrainian gas company which Biden worked for.
Joel Caplan
That said, Caplan’s claims are so bizarre that if one had enough tin foil, they might conclude that the recent string of filings in the case are being done to muddy the waters with absurdity.
The latest claim is that Biden was involved in a ‘multi-billion dollar stock scheme known as the China Hustle.‘
Shokin’s witness statement was submitted to the court as part of Joel Caplan’s motion this week to try and become a party in Roberts’ paternity case with Biden.
He claimed in Monday’s filing that he wanted in on the case so he could get his hands on Biden’s bank account records in order to prove he allegedly received $1.5 billion from Chinese companies that ‘hustled Americans out of their life savings’.
Caplan told Judge Don McSpadden to ‘follow the money’ and in a 30-page filing, lays out how he was allegedly swindled out of 10 years of his life savings in a ‘multi-billion dollar stock scheme known as the China Hustle.’
Caplan, who filed papers from Jerusalem, Israel, claims many Chinese nationals made fortunes from the ploy, which involved presenting fake company documents and claiming they were genuine investments when they were actual frauds. –Daily Mail
Caplan referenced President Trump’s October claim that Biden received a $1.5 billion payout from a Chinese private equity fund – a claim Biden has denied. Caplan has sought bank records in an attempt to regain his lost savings, and for ‘justice.’
Last week private investigator Dominic Casey also attempted to enter the case, claiming Biden was involved in a $150 million ‘counterfeiting scheme’. Hours after it was filed, Judge Casey tossed the motion on a technicality for being improperly filed.
On Friday, Dominic Casey (pictured) filed papers to Independence County on Friday, claiming he had provided Lunden Roberts with ‘electronic access’ to Biden’s bank account records, which are ‘subject of known felonies including fraud and counterfeiting’ Casey heads up D&A Investigations, which is based near Orlando, Florida, and he is known for pursuing right-wing conspiracy theories. During the Casey Anthony trial he claimed a psychic told him where to find Caylee’s body.
Casey claimed Biden was involved in a ‘counterfeiting scheme’ in Ukraine that accumulated a $150 million fortune. Judge Don McSpadden tossed out Casey’s original motion six hours after it was filed.
In Casey’s Friday motion, he gives his consent for Roberts’ legal team to use Biden’s bank account records in their court case, claiming that he has them.
Biden’s lawyer Brett Langdon called Casey’s filing “a scheme by a non-party simply to make scandalous allegations in the pending suit to gain some quick media attention.”
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 19:00 - 1000s Stranded On Beach Encircled By Flames As Bushfires Blaze Through Australia
1000s Stranded On Beach Encircled By Flames As Bushfires Blaze Through Australia
Thousands of tourists and locals were left stranded on a beach in southeast Australia on Tuesday as bushfires ravaged a popular tourist area, leaving no escape by land.
The Epoch Times’ Katabella Roberts reports, up to 4,000 people are trapped on the foreshore of the encircled seaside town of Mallacoota, in the East Gippsland region of Victoria, where authorities said nearby fires were manifesting extreme self-generating thunderstorms and “ember attacks.”
On Monday, Victoria’s Emergency Management Commissioner, Andrew Crisp, told residents and holidaymakers to leave the area by 9 a.m. or risk being stranded. However, in a later update he said it was now “too late” to get out of the area safely.
The crew from Fire and Rescue NSW Station 509 Wyoming recorded this video showing the moment their truck was overrun by the bushfire burning South of Nowra. The crew was forced to shelter in their truck as the fire front passed through. #NSWFires #ProtectTheIrreplaceable pic.twitter.com/Hb0yVrefi9
— Fire and Rescue NSW (@FRNSW) December 31, 2019
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Firefighters were deployed to protect those stranded on the beach, and preparations are underway for a sea or airborne evacuation if needed.
“We’ve got three strike teams in Mallacoota that will be looking after 4,000 people down on the beach there. We’re naturally very concerned about communities that have become isolated,” he added.
Hundreds of people have taken to social media to share apocalyptic images of the area, which is currently blanketed in a thick cloud of red haze.
Community radio in #Mallacoota: “The power is cut. We are isolated. It’s a holocaust, basically. Some have been sent to the hall, some to the lake, others have to stay in their homes. There’s a lot of thunder. The fires are creating their own weather.”
— Alt-Rupert (@TheMurdochTimes) December 30, 2019
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It comes after authorities warned up to 30,000 tourists currently visiting the area to leave as strong winds pushed an emergency-level bushfire towards the town.
The fire moving towards Mallacoota began at Wingan River on Sunday and spread rapidly towards the coast, RNZ reported.
Meanwhile, in a press conference on Tuesday, Premier Daniel Andrews said that four people are currently missing in Victoria.
“There are a number of people who remain unaccounted for—four people, and of course we have fears for their safety,” Andrews said.
“We cannot confirm their whereabouts, but as soon as we can bring any further information to you, then, of course, we will do that.”
Andrews also asked Prime Minister Scott Morrison for military assistance amid the raging fires, suggesting naval vessels help get supplies to isolated communities or heavy-lift aircraft to work alongside the state’s air fleet.
1030am at Mallacoota
However, no decisions regarding military assistance have been finalized as of yet.
Francesca Winterson is in a building on the main street of #Mallacoota and describes the wind, darkness and falling embers as fires burn about 500 metres away.
She says it’s too late to leave and fire crews are on hand to offer as much protection as they can. pic.twitter.com/6Tjfb4nyUR
— News Breakfast (@BreakfastNews) December 30, 2019
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On Monday, around 100,000 people were urged to flee five Melbourne suburbs. The swirling bushfires killed a volunteer firefighter who was battling a separate blaze in the countryside.
Another volunteer firefighter from the New South Wales Rural Fire Service also died on Monday when the truck he was traveling in was overturned by strong winds and crashed at Jingellic, about 110 kilometers (68 miles) east of Albury.
Authorities named him as 28-year-old Samuel McPaul, who was reportedly expecting his first child in May with his wife, Megan, whom he married last year.
Two of his male colleagues, aged 39 and 52, also suffered burns in the incident but are said to be in a stable condition.
Another eight people have been killed so far this fire season, while more than 1,000 homes have been destroyed, according to local reports.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 18:30 - "OH MY GOD" – Tesla Driver On Autopilot Films Own Crash
"OH MY GOD" – Tesla Driver On Autopilot Films Own Crash
Tesla Autopilot seems to give some drivers a sense of invincibility while traveling the roads as they place their lives in the hands of artificial intelligence.
This was the case with YouTuber Dougal Vlogs, who uploaded a video on Dec. 30, showing a Model 3 presumably engaged in “Autopilot” (as per the video’s headline) traveling at a high rate of speed (over 70 mph) during a rainstorm.
The video is short, about 15 seconds, the vlogger is seen speeding down a two-lane highway traveling at 70-75mph while using Autopilot.
The vlogger is holding a camera about to talk about the Model 3, and an alarm sound starts blaring. Next thing you know, the Model 3 hydroplanes and crashes into the shoulder of the road, all caught on camera!
The vlogger was heard several times during the incident yelling “OH MOY GOD” — and at the end of the video tells his audience he just crashed.
With-in 24 hours, the video has been viewed 70k times and with over 250 comments. The vlogger was mostly ridiculed in the comment section of the video.
One YouTube said, “Let’s try out AutoPilot. Oh, yeah did I mention during a typhoon?”
Another said, “You should be cited for driving too fast for the weather conditions, reckless driving for not having your hands on the wheel, and distracted driving for being stupid enough to film in a rainstorm. Sadly you’re going to get a bunch of clicks and lots of attention for this piece of amazing stupidity. I am glad you are OK, but I am more glad that you didn’t kill some innocent person who might’ve been stuck on the side of the road or unfortunate enough to be driving next to you while you were pulling this kind of stupid nonsense.”
Someone said, “His license should be taken away. He’s a danger to all drivers and pedestrians on the road.”
Another said, “Elon Musk: “Mate! We can fix this with a firmware update.” LOL”
It remains to be seen if it was the driver’s fault or if Autopilot malfunctioned.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 18:00 - Updating The 2020 Edition Of The OED (For Reality)
Updating The 2020 Edition Of The OED (For Reality)
Authored by Vladimir Golstein via Off-Guardian.org,
In the tradition of the Oxford English Dictionary, I recommend the following terms and their definitions to be included in a 2020 version of the same.
DNC – Democrats Nominate Clintons. A secret and nefarious body within Democratic Party that Makes Sure that only Clintons and their Clones get Nominations. The prominence of DNC is linked the futile attempts to slow down the demise of Neoliberalism.
White Helmets – a new form of birth control. It prevents members of the mainstream press from getting impregnated by truth. Any reporter travelling to the Middle East, Russia, Europe, or China is required to wear one all the time.
International News – A collection of urban legends and old wife-tales. Any news reported from Russia or China should be presumed a lie, unless proven otherwise. Under no circumstances should a proof come from the Atlantic Council, Wikipedia, Snopes, or any other propaganda outfit that calls itself “fact checker.”
Impeachment – a transgender incubus that visits nightly US Democrats in their sleep. The touch of Impeachment is so enticing, that those affected can’t think of anything else even during their waking hours.
Whoever gets visited by this incubus more than two times – be it an academic, politician, diplomat, military personnel, or security specialist – turns into a script-reading zombie, as has been recently witnessed during Impeachment Hearings.
Greta – A naïve character from Brothers Grimm’s Fairy Tale. In this tale, Greta leads her brother along with thousands of trusting adults deep into dark woods, where the evil Witch, called Climate Change, inflicts endless suffering upon her victims. These sufferings include floods, droughts, locusts, boils, plagues, death of livestock, and listening to the NPR all the time. The specter of Greta continues to haunt Europe to this very day.
Ukraine – an illegitimate child of the secret love affair between the Clintons, Biden, Obama, Merkel, and assorted Polish and Swedish Blonds. The child – instead of becoming an angelic baby with blond curls – grew up into a modern Frankenstein who eats its own parts and infects anyone who touches it with hatred and paranoia.
The country named in honor of this child has become a place where rich Democrats send their children to learn looting, before they can come back and start looting their own country. It is also a place where they feel the need to celebrate Nazi collaborators by turning them into national heroes. Even Poland does not do that.
Brexit – an evil uncle of Boris Johnson. When Boris’ ambitions to fill the shoes of great British Prime Ministers, like Disraeli or Churchill, has failed to realize, in comes Brexit, and relying on his network of old Etonians and angry proletarians, he helps Boris to achieve his goals.
Steele Dossier – the collection of adult cartoons that describes – in the most grotesque and ridiculous details – the sexapades of the presidential candidate, Donald Trump. The collection is so grotesque and unrealistic that only the most sordid porn-watchers and the most valiant agents of alphabet agencies find it plausible.
Quid Pro Quo – one of the most sordid stories in Steele dossier, that depicts Donald Trump sleeping with fifty-five concubines of the Ukrainian Ruler in one night; the reported feat outdoes therefore the record set by Heracles, known to have slept with fifty daughters of a Greek King in one night.
Russians – a mysterious group of people – who, similar to the demons of ancient times, the witches of the Middle Ages, and the Jews of the Modern Period — was created by the western mind for the purposes of scapegoating. Russians combine all possible contradictions: they can be simultaneously weak and strong; socialist, yet greedy and rapacious; conniving, yet very sloppy; they can pull a very sophisticated stunt, yet leave all the traces and clues that lead back to them. They can’t do anything without cheating; yet, they are always caught in their lies. General public in the west is convinced that the only way to defeat Russians is to vote for the candidate who can say “Russians” faster than his rivals.
Whataboutism – An incantation that one pronounces to dismiss legitimate concerns of one’s opponent. It is the modern day version of “catch the thief,” when a thief, to avoid being caught, starts chasing an innocent person while screaming “catch the thief.” Used primarily by the propagandists of NATO countries to deflect scrutiny of their own violent and illegal behavior.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 17:30 - North Korea's Kim Slams Trump's "Gangster-Like Demands", Warns Of "New Strategic Weapon"
North Korea's Kim Slams Trump's "Gangster-Like Demands", Warns Of "New Strategic Weapon"
It appears North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-Un decided a New Year’s Eve ‘gift’ was better than Christmas.
According to Yonhap news, reporting on a KCNA report, North Korea will continue building up its nuclear deterrent to counter US aggression, but the degree to which it expands its weapons program will depend on the US’ attitude.
Calling out US insincerity regarding discussions about the partial lifting of sanctions, Kim blasted Washington’s “gangster-like demands” as the reason no agreement had yet been reached between the two countries.
The more the US stalls for time, Kim said, the more it will find itself “helpless in the face of North Korean power.”
Finally, Kim warned that North Korea has a “new strategic weapon” up its sleeve, and time was running out before his government would be moved to take “shocking actual action.”
…and a happy new year to you too!
Notably, as BNO points out, all of the current news alerts are based on a KCNA report regarding yesterday’s plenary meetings. Kim has not delivered his speech yet.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 17:02 - Mike Bloomberg's Secretive Election Tech Firm Lied About DNC Relationship To Lure New Recruits
Mike Bloomberg's Secretive Election Tech Firm Lied About DNC Relationship To Lure New Recruits
A secretive digital marketing firm founded by Mike Bloomberg to help him win he 2020 election lured new recruits by falsely claiming that it would be the “primary platform” for the Democratic National Committee, according to CNBC.
The company, Hawkfish, was created “with the intention of overpowering the formidable data operation assembled by the Republican National Committee and Trump’s cash-flush campaign,” according to a previous CNBC report.
Yet to attract top talent – a roster which now includes former Facebook Chief Marketing Officer Gary Briggs and former CEO of location-tracking firm Foursquare – Hawkfish told prospective new hires that they are “currently working with the Bloomberg campaign and will be the primary platform used by the DNC throughout 2020.”
Bloomberg has placed the blame on the headhunter they used to find talent, Andiamo Partners, who they say mistakenly believed the company had a contract with the DNC.
Several potential hires received notices through LinkedIn in which they were informed that Hawkfish was working for both the Bloomberg campaign and the DNC. It wasn’t immediately clear how many recruiting targets received the erroneous pitch.
“The recruiting company mistook support for Democratic causes as Hawkfish working under contract with the DNC, which isn’t the case,” said Frazier, the Bloomberg aide. –CNBC
According to the report, on Nov. 27, just three days after Bloomberg officially launched his campaign, the DNC fired off a notice to Hawkfish that their pitches were misleading, according to DNC spokesman Daniel Wessel.
“We had previously alerted Hawkfish that the recruiting emails were incorrect and misleading,” Wessel told CNBC.
Hawkfish, meanwhile, conceded to the DNC that the script wasn’t accurate – correcting it on December 2nd, according to Bloomberg campaign spokesman Michael Frazier.
The company says it’s done work for Democratic groups in state races in Virginia and Kentucky, but would not elaborate on who their clients were. Notably, Democrats won control of the Virginia statehouse for the first time in over two decades, while GOP candidate Matt Bevin was narrowly defeated by Democratic candidate Andy Beshear – which CNBC implies Hawkfish may have had something to do with.
Meanwhile, despite spending over $100 million on TV ads across the country and $20 million on digital Facebook and Google ads, Mike Bloomberg is polling in fifth place in the Democratic primary, behind Biden, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg, according to Real Clear Politics.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 17:00 - Here Are The "Costanza Trades" Of 2020
Here Are The "Costanza Trades" Of 2020
After an “everything is awesome, nothing will go down” 2019, Mark Orsley – Head of Macro Strategy for Prism, is out with a review of his 2020 “Costanza Trades,” while offering his comprehensive thoughts for next year.
* * *
Long time readers will know that The Macro Scan takes a twist at year end to present next year’s “Costanza Trades” or the “Not Top 10 Trades of 2020.” A kind push back against all the bank “year ahead” pieces that tend to be consensus.
For those of you not familiar with George Costanza, his character on the sitcom Seinfeld could do no right when it came to employment, dating, or life in general. In one episode, George realizes over lunch at the diner with Jerry that if every instinct he has is wrong; then doing the opposite must be right. George resolves to start doing the complete opposite of what he would do normally. He orders the opposite of his normal lunch, and he introduces himself to a beautiful woman that he normally would never have the nerve to talk to: “my name is George,” he says, “I’m unemployed, and I live with my parents.” To his surprise, she is impressed with his honesty and agrees to date him! Doing the opposite was the right thing. Watershed!
Employing the Costanza method to trading is an interesting exercise. Ask yourself what are the trades that make complete rational sense and all your instincts say are right…now consider the opposite. Basically what you end up constructing is an out of consensus portfolio. If you can back those out of consensus views with fundamental and technical justification; there is potentially a high amount alpha in these trades.
It was another successful year for Costanza (though not his best) who fought the idea the world was coming to an end after the December 2018 risk asset massacre. The winners far outpaced the losers.
2019 Costanza Trades:
1) Long FANGs -> + 41%
2) Receive credit protection in IG and HY -> IG 45bps tighter, HY +7.75pts
3) Long Eurodollar spreads (EDZ9/EDZ0) -> -16bps
4) Long Bunds -> German yields 45bps lower
5) Short Gold -> -18%
6) Long WTI crude -> +37%
7) Long AUD/USD -> -0.77%
8) Short EM -> +16% (although in fairness it wildly underperformed the US)
9) Long Bitcoin -> +103%
Costanza Track Record (% of views that were correct):
-
2015 70% correct
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2016 70% correct
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2017 83% correct
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2018 71% correct
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2019 55% correct
This year is the polar opposite of 2018 which saw massive risk off. Now in December 2019; trade progress between China and the US has developed, risks of a hard Brexit have been reduced, central banks have cut rates and injected liquidity, and fiscal stimulus is being instituted around the world. It’s now full risk on and everything is merry and bright.
That setup makes this year’s Costanza portfolio easy to construct. Costanza is going all in on the idea that reflation is a farce, growth concerns can reemerge, central banks will NOT be on hold in 2020, ranges will be broken, and volatility is too low.
2020 Costanza Trades (in no particular order):
1) Short Rest of World equities vs. long US equities
2) Short US 2s10s steepener (aka: the flattener)
3) Long “green” Euribors
4) Short US 10yr breakevens
5) Long vol: a. “White” Eurodollars b. VIX c. EUR/USD FX
6) Short Gold
7) Short Copper
8) Short Oil
9) Long $Mex
10) Long Bitcoin Bonus: Long initial jobless claims/short the US consumer
As you can see, Costanza thinks the world is NOT reflating as much as the big banks are leading us to believe (recall most of the big banks were calling for 3 HIKES in 2019), and that growth risks still exist in a year with major political uncertainty. Let’s go through each trade and assess the likelihood of Costanza once again beating the street.
1) Short Rest of World equities vs. long US equities
Global growth has bounced on the back of the Fed’s liquidity injection, Phase 1 progress, fiscal stimulus around the world, “yada yada.” That bounce has led to the consensus view across the street to move out of the US equity market (a safer play when global growth is slowing) and into the rest of the world (RoW –higher beta to growth) which has lagged US indices and thus have more upside if growth is picking up again.
When looking at the ratio of US vs. EM, the street is really telling you to fade a multi-year up trend. However, the ratio has gotten quite extended to its trend line so a reversion similar to 2016/2017 is not out of the question…
Impressively, the RoW is already economically outperforming the US as seen in economic surprise indices.
US (black), EZ (purple), China (blue)…
Instinct: Fed liquidity injection stimulates global growth as it improves global trade which benefits RoW, countries outside the US are stimulating their economies via fiscal while the US loses its fiscal impulse in 2020, the tariff risk has peaked – therefore the RoW will bounce more than the US from here
Costanza: tariffs have been cut not eliminated, Phase 2 trade talks will be much more difficult, Trump will institute tariffs on the Eurozone, the Fed will end its liquidity injections in 2020 as funding issues calm down past year end, EM growth (led by China) continues to slow – all will keep the trend intact for the US to outperform EM and RoW
Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 35%
Recall the mid-Oct recommendation to buy ESH0 3300/3400 call spread for 5pts which is now worth 33pts (6.5x return). The point is to not pat ourselves on the back but realize it has moved a lot and very fast. Therefore, the crowd is not crazy to sell US and play the catch up trade via RoW longs. I would throw in the risk of margin compressions on US earnings as wages will likely rise more in 2020 as the Fed attempts to further tighten the labor market.
Additionally, the big risk will be the US election which could be the catalyst of US underperformance. The election will be another close call and that could lead to major uncertainty as the policy difference between the Dems and GOP is so vastly different.
Conversely, as long as the Fed keeps pumping Dollars into the global system, that will be positive for RoW growth as Dollars are needed for global trade. Unlike Costanza, we don’t see that spigot getting turned off and in fact we expect that the Fed will eventually move to coupon purchases next year, possibly as early as March. That will be positive for risk assets and accelerate the higher beta plays like EM.
In terms of geopolitical risks, the amount of progress made on the US/China trade talks has been impressive including two major sticking points (IP theft and enforcement). So the surprise in 2020 could be a Phase 2 deal. Further on geopol, it would be shocking if Trump went after Europe during the election cycle (isn’t he incentivize to keep the economy going?). So trade war fears should further abate in 2020.
Speaking of progress, the Germans keep inching their way to stimulus with an ever growing acceptance of running a fiscal deficit, something that very few market participants believe will happen. That means EZ equities could be an outperformer next year and prove Costanza wrong.
Overall, Costanza wants to be in low beta, defensive trades in 2020 which makes sense given how much equities have rallied this year and that the street has now fully bought into reflation. The pushbacks to Costanza would be that the best of times are past for the US (especially politically) and the Fed will have to keep injecting liquidity which benefits the RoW. Therefore, we should all consider that perhaps the US is not the best “hiding place” any more, and all that capital flow into the US the past couple years could reverse in 2020. Meaning if there is big risk off, the US could be the worse place to be.
2) Short US 2s10s steepener (aka: the flattener)
The steepener was one of the most popular macro trades this year. The view in the beginning of the year was that the economy was slowing, the Fed would cut, and that back end would sell off on the prospects of future growth due to the Fed easing. That would be a classic end of cycle bull steepener. The prospects for the steepener was further emboldened by the tourist in the equity community who viewed it as a good hedge for equity longs.
But ironically, the 2s10s curve really started to steepen once growth bottomed, fiscal stimulus around the globe began being floated, and the Fed injected liquidity which led to the bear steepener. The bear steepener is a classic reflation trade and as we know from above; the reflation theme makes George very upset!
Instinct: The Fed is on hold in 2020 and has indicated it is “not planning to raise rates for a long time” which will keep front end rates contained whereas the long end can sell off on reflation prospects and coming supply due to fiscal spending around the world.
Costanza: growth will continue to slow (see economic surprise index) which will cause the long end to re-rally and flatten the curve back as the Fed keeps front end rates steady for a least a few meetings. Additionally, per Brainard if growth slows materially, the Fed “might turn to targeting slightly longer-term interest rates” which will certainly flatten the curve. Lastly, George likes carry (+4bps 12m roll down).
Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 50%
hHis could very well be a case where Costanza is wrong at first and right later, thus the 50% assigned probability. The prospects for further bear steepening on the back of reflation looks valid, at least in the near term.
Besides the above mentioned reasons, keep in mind that the beta to foreign curves could also steepen the US curve as central banks like the BOJ and ECB attempt to steepen their curves to aid their banking sector.
Conversely, Costanza isn’t crazy either as if growth fears reemerge, you likely get a period of flattening before the bull steepener as the Fed will be on hold for as long as possible which means the long end will rally more. Further, if the economy really destabilizes, you could then get the Brainard play book where the Fed attempts to bring the entire curve to lower yield levels – thus flattening all curves to essentially zero.
The ironic thing about playing the reflation idea in the steepener is that if the US reflates enough, the Fed could start talking hikes again. The market, who generally does not believe growth is strong enough for hikes, will no doubt bear flatten the curve. This may not be a 2020 story yet but note Evans comments (non-voter in 2020, voter in 2021) from last week where he said he is “quite comfortable with raising rates once in 2021 and again in 2022.” (Insert slapping head emoji – have these guys not learned their lesson yet!)
The technicals jibe with the idea of the curve should continue to steepen over the next couple months as the reflation narrative plays out.
US 2s10s curve have formed a picture perfect inverse head and shoulder pattern. The target is 55bps…
3) Long “green” Euribors (ERH2)
Long Euribors were one of the best trending trades of the year up until the ECB meeting on Sept 12th when we first caught wind that further rate cuts were going to be less likely.
ERH2 broke its uptrend on Sept 12th , now trending to the downside, and just broke pivot support…
Since then, we have gotten further clarification that not only are ECB cuts are becoming less likely, but there is a growing ambition to perhaps move out of negative rates, Riksbank style. ECB officials are now roundly talking about the adverse impact of negative rates, how they are starting to see improved growth prospects, and will consider a monetary policy path.
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ECB’s De Guindos: side effects of monetary policy is becoming more evident
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ECB’s de Cos: No conclusive evidence that sub-zero rates were hurting lending but could not rule any negative impact on banking sector
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ECB’s Holzmann: noted he hopes to see the end of negative interest rates by the time his 6-year term ends – local press
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ECB’s Holzmann: stated that he saw possible ECB rate changes if the inflation trough passed during 2020
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ECB Lagarde: downside risks to growth “slightly less pronounced”
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ECB’s Guindos: low rates create strains on bank profitability
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ECB’s Knot: In time need to reassess our monetary policy; cannot rule out worrying prospect of current low interest rates lasting another
Additionally, as we spoke about in trade #1, the prospects of German fiscal stimulus are inching their way along and that will keep Euribors under pressure.
Instinct: growth bottoming, the ECB is done cutting and considering moving out of negative rates, prospects for German fiscal stimulus
Costanza: European growth will remain lackluster due to structural reasons, cutting rates further is one of the ECB’s only levers to pull when growth slows, moving rates out of negative will cause the Euro to appreciate which will collapse growth, generally the world has learned that rising rates eventually hurts economic growth and breaks risk assets (due to debt deluge)
Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 60%
The ECB is in a tough spot. It has become en vogue for ECB members to warn about the effects of negative rates but do any of us believe the generally unimpressive growth in Eurozone will be able to sustain rate hikes and an appreciating currency? It’s a tall order.
With the Euribor curve now pricing in hikes in the “greens,” Costanza is buying the dip and playing that at the very least; the ECB will be on perma-hold.
4) Short US 10yr breakevens
You don’t get reflation without the “flation.” This one is another bet against the conventional wisdom of reflation which by definition sees rising inflation.
It has been a good run recently for “breaks” which are now ~30bps off the lows but note that it just failed at a key resistance level, and its Elliott Wave count suggests the recent rally was simply an ABC correction. That at least puts some probability that the reflation narrative is a head fake.
Also note that at 2.1% headline CPI, 10yr breakevens tend to sit in the 1.70%-1.75% range (ie: right here).
10yr breakevens failed at pivot resistance which completes its ABC correction off the 5-wave count down. That would suggest the rally is complete and note that at 2020 consensus forecast of 2.1% CPI, 10yr breaks are “fair” here…
The one big macro positive for inflation was the Fed effectively capping the Dollar this fall with its three rate cuts, but more importantly with the repo operation/liquidity injection/Not QE. Since then, the Dollar has depreciated and that will act as a tailwind for inflation.
However, there are a few macro negatives:
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The fact that tariffs will get cut in half means the feed through to prices will be negative for inflation.
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China is still exporting deflation as we can see with its -1.4% PPI
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No inflation impulse emanating from Europe or Japan
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Trump is making it his mission to cut prescription drugs prices by increasing competition which will be very negative for medical prices (but good for the economy btw)
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Oil is potentially topping (see trade #8 below)
Instinct: global growth is picking up, the Fed has eased and provided liquidity, oil has rallied, fiscal stimulus is being instituted around the world – all should feed into higher inflation
Costanza: reflation is a temporary pop that the inflation market already priced in, China is still deflating, oil will cap out soon, the Fed will end its liquidity injection next year which will cause the Dollar to rise again
Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 60%
The potential for higher inflation certainly is viable in the near term as reflation plays out a bit more. The problem is that higher inflation would lead to higher nominal yields. As we saw in 2018, higher yields ultimately tip the economy back towards the downside as the debt overhang, and the rising cost to service that debt with higher yields, will become problematic thus breaking the economy and markets once again. That would send breakevens back down.
Let’s also not forget about the aging demographics problem in the US which will structurally compress inflation over the next decade. Therefore, once the green shoots of reflation fades; Costanza will likely be proven right.
5) Long vol: “white Eurodollar”, VIX, Euro FX
The environment is goldilocks: growth is picking up, the Fed is on hold, the ECB is on hold. What could go wrong?!?!
Since the Fed’s last insurance cut + repo op, fixed income vol has been annihilated. From Costanza’s perspective, it has rarely been cheaper in the past year to bet against the market consensus that the Fed will be on hold. This could mean buying calls, puts, strangles or straddles depending on your view. Point is to own optionality that 2020 won’t be a range.
Using Prism’s constant maturity data, EDU0 at-the-money normal implied vol is back near the 1-year lows…
In other words, if you are playing the range theme in fixed income on the idea that the Fed is on hold in 2020, you are essentially selling vol at the lows. Full pass for Costanza.
Similar story in equity vol. Obviously with S&P’s making higher highs, VIX has returned to its base where you normally don’t see the index drift any lower. So do you want to sell equity vol here?
And FX vol is just crazy low. All-time lows in 3m EUR/USD vol…
Instinct: absolutely nothing will happen in 2020 (which is what current vol levels are implying)
Costanza: the Fed generally does not make accurate calls on its policy direction so why believe they will remain on hold, the Fed shifts less hawkish/more dovish in 2020, there are still growth concerns, still trade talk uncertainty, US election uncertainty –buy volatility at the lows
Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 99.99%
This idea is made for Costanza. Most commentators right now are talking up a Fed on hold + reflation. You have to be concerned how consensus this is and the building of short vol positions in Q4.
The odds of nothing happening in 2020 and not getting a disturbance in the force is slim to none. Has anyone noticed that US growth has been disappointing recently? Has Phase 1 actually been signed? Is Phase 2 done? Is there a US election this year where policy is so binary its impossible for businesses to make investment decisions? Anyone notice nominal yields are rising to a point compared to growth where risk asset vols tend picks up?
The point is the market is priced for near perfection so playing ranges and selling vol at these levels has become dicey.
Costanza will be proven right in his highest conviction trade of the year. He would much rather buy cheapening tails than sell ATM vol. Ideally, play for higher rates now which breaks the economy/risk assets and then for Fed cuts later.
6) Short Gold
Against his long vol position, Costanza wants to sell Gold. Gold has become a widely popular macro trade as central banks are expanding their balance sheets once again, the Dollar has been falling, and the Fed is working to keep real rates low. Therefore, the Gold long is completely intuitive and is breaking out.
Gold is breaking out of its bull flag pattern. The target is 1700…
The major problem is just how widely own it is.
Gold speculative positioning near all-time high…
Instinct: Fed capped the Dollar and is compressing real rates, good insurance policy for an equity market melt down
Costanza: positioning is very crowded long, Fed will end its liquidity injection in 2020 which will allow the Dollar to rise again, the Fed will indicate rate hikes are once again on the horizon
Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 20%
The gold market at some point will need a positioning cleanse but the bull case is strong and the bear case is weak at best. The consensus will likely be proven right (for once).
7) Short Copper
Shorting Dr. Copper is a simple play that reflation will be temporary and that trade talks could deteriorate once again.
Costanza will be concerned about the supply issues in Chile which has also provided a bid to copper this year. Longer term, copper demand should remain robust as the US moves to more electronic vehicles of which copper is a major component of.
Copper has broken out of its 1-year downtrend…
Instinct: the trade wars are cooling which will be good for global growth and China, supply disruptions, EV demand
Costanza: the breakout has been mostly uninspiring which could be a signal that reflation is not real, Chilean supply issues could be fixed in 2020, the EV demand theme is very long term and may not be a 2020 story
Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 50%
This is really a pure call on global growth and as stated above in some of the other trades, its likely reflation works for Q1 or so and then fades later in 2H. Therefore, with copper mostly beaten down due to trade wars, its prudent to position long here especially if you think the progress on China-US trade talks are genuine. Compared to some of the other reflation trades, this has a better entry point.
8) Short Oil
Costanza is really beating a dead horse now. Many factors drive crude oil prices but more than anything, global growth concerns kept WTI under $60 for most of the year. With the growth picture more robust, WTI has recaptured $60.
Besides the possible reemergence of growth concerns, Costanza will hang his hat on US production continuing to grow. What’s been impressive this year is US production has risen from 11.5m barrels/day to almost 13m barrels/day despite rig counts declining all year (mostly due to DUC’s being completed). But note that the rig count is starting to turn higher again which is typical when prices start to rise and producing oil becomes economically attractive again. That could keep supply pressures going.
US total crude production (black) vs. rig counts (purple)…
The bull case rests on the idea that US production will start to fall as production issues have reemerged (wells producing less oil than expected), capex has been low, and funding has become more difficult. Additionally, OPEC has made it clear they will keep prices firm with output cuts for the time being.
It’s also time to see if IMO 2020 (curtailing sulfur output on cargo ships which requires a heavy blend of crude) will cause a price spike or not as shippers could stockpile the necessary crude to turn it into product that would lower their sulfur emissions.
Costanza knows that WTI, at the end of the day, generally maintains a range around its “fair value.” In this case, over the past 5 years, WTI has an average price of $53. You can see from the below chart, 72% of the time, it stays within 1 standard deviation of that average (there has only been two periods where it traveled outside that zone). Therefore, better to fade at the top of the range than chase…
Instinct: growth is picking up, IMO 2020 rules take effect now, US production will slow due to well issues
Costanza: global growth concerns still exist, shippers can use scrubbers to manage the new IMO 2020 rules, rig count is picking up which will mean US production will keep rising, DUC’s are being completed which will bring new supply with or without increasing rig count, OPEC+ ends or reduces the supply cuts now that Aramco has IPO’d (note recent Russian comments that cuts are not indefinite), getting to the top of its normal range
Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 65%
In The Macro Scan on September 30th, we discussed how oil would bottom out in the low $50s with a target range of $60-$65. That micro call played out and here we are back at the top end of the range. Statistically speaking, Costanza looks wise to play that range with the market betting on reflation.
9) Long USD/MXN (Long US Dollar vs. short Mexican Peso)
Costanza’s call here has a few different drivers:
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A play that global growth convergence will not occur in 2020 (see trade #1)
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A play that the USMCA deal will not spur the Mexican economy which has seen two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth
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A play that the Fed will not continue its repo operations well into 2020 which is working to suppress the USD, or will re-lose control over funding markets bringing back the Dollar shortage theme
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A play against all those trying to collect carry, short vol, etc. (Mex is the highest yielding major currency)
So this encompasses many of Costanza’s view of short risk assets, short EM, short nothing is going to happen, and long Dollar.
Instinct: growth is recovering, Fed is on hold for 2020, Fed is injecting liquidity, Mexico will benefit from USMCA deal, long EM and collect carry
Costanza: global growth is still murky and the Mexican economy has slowed hard (-0.3% GDP YoY), Banxico will have to cut rates further hurting its currency carry, the Fed will end the liquidity injections in 2020, risk asset vol will emerge which will hurt carry trades
Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 60%
This is a popular street idea and when EM trades get crowded, Costanza gets worried. It appears to him that the Mexican economic slowdown will outweigh the benefits of USMCA passage. Probably another example of not working first but bouncing in 2H.
Correction down to its long-term trend line with a 2H rally?
10) Long Bitcoin
Since adding Bitcoin to his repertoire two years ago, Costanza is two for two in his Bitcoin calls (short vol in 2018, outright long Bitcoin in 2019). Luckily enough the long trade in 2019 worked brilliantly in 1H but has since given up much of those games. Thus entering the decade, the sentiment has flipped bearish mainly due to:
1) As trade war fears abate, the demand from the Chinese to move wealth offshore via Bitcoin decreases. And with the common belief that tariffs have peaked, there will be less demand for Bitcoin going forward.
2) Government sponsored cryptocurrencies which will lower Bitcoin demand. China is expanding is blockchain study and Japan is pushing for an international network of cryptocurrency payments as examples.
3) Libra/Stablecoins – full of controversy, but Facebook intends to move ahead with plans to bring a stable medium of currency exchange to 1.7b “unbanked” people to allow money to more easily flow around the world.
As you can see, there has been plenty of fundamental reasons to sell Bitcoin in 2H, but Costanza is betting there is still a store of value price that the market will place on it. His bet is that store of value price is around 6k. Notice the fractals that have formed since July which are “W” shaped corrections. All those “W’s” have worked to fill the various “gaps” that formed during the 1H rally. There is one last gap to fill down at 6078. Note that coincides with the all-important pivot support around 6,000. Also take notice that the MACD (bottom graph) is starting to make higher lows which is an indication that momentum is starting to turn higher…
Instinct: improved China-US trade talks means less demand from the Chinese, governments continue to work to introduce legitimate crypto, the private sector as well is attempting to bring a more stable form of crypto
Costanza: there will always be demand for a non-legitimate crypto, spec traders will buy just above 6,000 once the last 1H gap is filled and at key pivot support
Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 75%
Whether you believe Bitcoin is the IPhone or the Treo of cryptocurrencies is neither here nor there going into 2020. It remains the most liquid way to transfer money globally without real government supervision.
Further, it is still the best speculative asset in the macro landscape due to its high volatility which simply does not exist in the developed markets due to central banks compressing volatility. Those specs will take their shots at long in 2020, and Costanza has to imagine the whales come in just ahead of 6k.
Bonus: Long Initial Jobless Claims (higher claims), short the consumer
Record low unemployment and strong consumer. That has been the story in 2019 despite an economic slowdown and three Fed rate cuts. The street widely expects claims and UER to remain low in 2020.
The labor market is tight and the Fed intends on “letting it run hot” as per Kaplan’s comments that “inflation is not running away from us, so we might have the luxury of trying to do more to get more people into this workforce on a sustainable basis.”
The problem is tight labor markets can end a cycle. Wages rise which compresses margins which then leads to layoffs as companies cut costs to improve profitability (at a time when corp. earnings are now negative on a YoY basis).
That puts wages in a tough spot entering 2020. Either they rise to an unsustainable level which would end the cycle, or wages fall telling us the cycle has already ended. The only “goldilocks” scenario from Costanza’s estimation would be a stable 3% average hourly earnings (i.e.: right here, no big movements). While claims are still low on an absolute basis, the scene “under the hood” is less robust. The 4-week moving average has moved from 212k three months ago to 228k now. Not exactly troublesome yet by any means but ticking higher nonetheless. Additionally, when looking at a heat map of claims on a state-to-state basis, you can see that the rate of change is worsening more than the headline number suggests. 6m change of claims by state…
Notice how in the beginning of the year, there were only five states in the red (seeing rising claims). Now 50% of states are in the red (seeing rising claims compared to 6m ago).
If claims breakout, that would kill the other consensus economic thought of a strong consumer. Not to say this would send the US into a deep recession (it won’t because consumers have savings right now), but this would reinvigorate the US slowdown theme and cause many of Costanza’s theme to play out and squash the reflation narrative.
Summary:
Costanza’s view is straight forward once again this year: fade the reflation narrative and the idea that nothing will happen in 2020 which has led the crowd to play the range and sell vol. Costanza wants to own vol, own tails for range breaks, and generally be short reflation assets.
What are some of the potential, reasonable catalyst for Costanza to be profitable?
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US growth slowdown (its already been disappointing) led by a weakening labor market that hurts the “strong consumer” narrative forcing the Fed back into a cutting cycle (thus lifting fixed income vol)
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Central banks start talking rate hikes and/or market pricing for hikes increase which leads to higher rates which once again cracks risk assets
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US election cycle turns 2016 Charlottesville ugly in addition to policies being so uncertain that business retrench which will hurt consumer and business sentiment
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Inability for China-US to complete a Phase 2 deal which disproves the “peak tariff” idea
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EM growth continues to weaken due to supply chain disruptions and still enacted tariffs
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US oil production breaks above 13m barrels/day which brings down oil prices serving as not only a poor reflation signal but hurts energy equities (now becoming a popular long) and breakeven/inflation expectations
What are the glaring issues that could lead to Costanza being more wrong than right for the first time in history?
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The prospects for German fiscal stimulus continues to improve
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The Fed, having learned their lesson in 2018, continues to talk down rate hikes (they better censor Evans then), especially with the 2020 Fed becoming less hawkish/more dovish
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The Fed continues to inject liquidity in order to control funding markets with the potential to shift purchases out the curve (i.e.: into coupons)
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Companies begin to restock inventories lifting manufacturing PMI’s and, as per prior history, service PMI’s bounce 6-months later
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A Biden vs. Trump outcome would reduce political risks as policies are less binary
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IMO 2020 causes a demand spike for heavy crude lifting oil prices at the same time as spurring economically positive drilling activity that helps the economy
Wishing everyone a very Happy New Year and a successful 2020!
Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to many thought-provoking market discussions in 2020. I doubt it will be a dull year.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 16:30 -
- 2019 – The Year Of Buying Everything
2019 – The Year Of Buying Everything
The global bond and stock markets added $24 trillion in market value ($17.5 tn stocks, $6.5 tn in bonds)
Source: Bloomberg
The Dollar ended 2019 at the same level it started – but stocks, bonds, and gold all rallied on the heels of an unprecedented surge in global liquidity…
Source: Bloomberg
Remember, correlation is not causation, especially when your career depends on people thinking you’re a guru stock-picker…
Source: Bloomberg
And as central banks spewed liquidity, they stomped on the throat of all risk in all asset classes…
Source: Bloomberg
In global equity land…
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FTSEMIB (Italy) – best year since 1998
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CAC – best year since 1999
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Europe 500 – best year since 2009
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MSCI World – best year since 2009
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DAX – best year since 2012
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IBEX (Spain) – best year since 2013
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S&P – best year since 2013
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SHCOMP (China) – best year since 2014
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FTSE – best year since 2016
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Dow – best year since 2017
In the US, Trannies lagged as Nasdaq soared (but everything was green)…
Source: Bloomberg
All of which makes perfect sense, because fun-durr-mentals…
Source: Bloomberg
And it’s not just 2019…
Source: Bloomberg
This won’t end well…
Defensives modestly outperformed Cyclicals in 2019…
Source: Bloomberg
Amid considerable intra-year vol, Momo and Value ended only marginally lower…
Source: Bloomberg
Apple added a stunning $550 Billion in market cap in 2019 (best year since 2009)…
Source: Bloomberg
…as its Fwd EPS tumbled…
Source: Bloomberg
Credit protection dramatically outperformed equity protection (thanks to a late collapse in spreads)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were bought with both hands and feet as treasury yields collapsed in 2019…
Source: Bloomberg
-
30Y Yields fell their most since 2014
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2Y Yields fell their most since 2008
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2s30s yield curve steepened 29bps – the first year the curve has steepened since 2013
Source: Bloomberg
In FX-land, the Loonie was the year’s best performer… and the Swedish Kroner was the worst
Source: Bloomberg
The Dollar tumbled into year-end, erasing its gains against a broad trade-weighted basket of fiat malarkey…And the three legs lower all started as the “Phased One” deal with China was ‘completed’…
Source: Bloomberg
Cryptos broadly speaking had a yuuge year, but it was a tale of two halves with gains halved after peaking around late June…
Source: Bloomberg
Commodities had a big year
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Gold had it best year since 2010
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Silver had its best year since 2010
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Oil had its best year since 2016
Source: Bloomberg
But Palladium was the year’s big commodity/precious metal winner…
Source: Bloomberg
And while the dollar’s slide is accelerating into year-end against global fiat currencies, it has a long way to catch down to its weakness against hard assets…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, in case you wondered, “you are here”…
Source: Bloomberg
And with a huge h/t to CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche, an ode to 2019:
‘Twas the Night before Xmas
Stock markets at record highs
Tech sector breaking into new territory
Brushing off trade war & recession criesBut what a year 2019 was,
Let’s rewind back to last December
The world was looking a little different
One last hike the Fed would rather not rememberOnly took 7 months to reverse course
“A mid cycle adjustment” Powell mumbled
followed by two step September and October cuts
“Where did I find this guy” the President grumbledBut of course there was another battle front
The China US trade war raged on
In April a deal was “about 90% done”
Took another 8 months to get to Phase OneTariffs went up on both sides
a terrible year for manufacturing and trade
PMIs slumped into contractionary territory
“95% Republican approval rating, I get top grades!”The President tweeted, with one eye on the election
“It’s all one big witch hunt, am fully exonerated”
Not everyone agreed, as Democrats pressed on
“The evidence suggests, he is NOT fully exculpated”Meanwhile, we sat glued watching the House of Commons,
an equally tumultuous year back in the UK
“Order Order” no one really understood the amendments
But could the bill with the Irish Backstop pass? Three times Nay..After multiple cabinet resignations and brexit deadlock
The writing was clearly etched on the wall,
Prime Minister May , resigned in May,
and of course Tory Euroskpetics were enthralled.Then commenced the Tory leadership contest
Ten eager contenders, to be whittled down to one
Never mind trust issues,
“Let’s get Brexit done”But first PM Johnson had a cunning plan ,
proroguing Parliament and giving unlawful advice to the queen
“Don’t worry its a do or die Brexit,
We will be out by Halloween!”Back from Brussels, brandishing a deal
Deadlock in Parliament persisted,
“Time for a General Election” all parties squealed
Even Jeremy Corbyn who had resistedAnd so it was on December 12th
The Conservative party secured its biggest majority in 30 years
The withdrawal bill now passed with flying colours
Brexit on January 31st with no free trade deal yet… Cheers.2020 will also see a new BOE governor
Andrew Bailey confirmed in the seat,
Will the Bank hike or cut we wonder,
Managing brexit will be no easy featBut in all of this let’s not forget about Europe,
Caught in a brexit quagmire and manufacturing slump
“Europe treats us worse than China”
Perpetual threat of tariffs being dangled by TrumpTrouble in paradise with the German coalition:
new SPD leadership want to re-negotiate the terms
“while we poll low, we want rules of our volition”
As CDU’s fiscal campaign made us all squirmAnd oh the Italians kept us on our toes
The 5-Star Lega coalition fell apart
Another political crisis as the economy slows?
PD theatrically swept in with 5 Star : “it’s a new start”What about NATO the transatlantic alliance
“Braindead” declared French President Macron
“This isn’t just a spending partnership but a political one”
We shook our heads, where did this all go wrongMeanwhile OPEC+ continued with production cuts
Oil apparently too oversupplied
“we want full compliance this time: no if , no buts”
Aramco went for a local listing, not quite $2T (but they tried)And of course the central banks, still standing firm,
The ECB unleashed its latest round of easing
A month before the end of Draghi’s term
Now it’s up to Lagarde to do the hawks appeasing“We will do whatever it takes” Draghi’s words
Echoing forever in the annals of history
“I am neither a dove nor a hawk
but an owl” Lagarde said ferventlyAnother memorable speech at the UN
“How dare you, you stole my dreams”
Green warrior Greta Thunberg
Warning of climate change in its extremeA 2019 that was hectic to say the least:
The US President impeached
Hong Kong riots in the East
Codes of civility breachedWhile we don’t know what 2020 has in store
Perhaps one of less uncertainty
Happy New Year to you all
and thank you for watching CNBC! – Jou* * *
Happy New Year!
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 16:00 -
- "A Nation Dying" – Opioid Deaths Linked To Auto Plant Closures, Study Says
"A Nation Dying" – Opioid Deaths Linked To Auto Plant Closures, Study Says
A new study has found the link between automobile manufacturing plant closures and a community’s struggle with opioid overdose deaths.
The study, published Monday in JAMA Internal Medicine, titled “Association Between Automotive Assembly Plant Closures and Opioid Overdose Mortality in the United States,” shows how US adults are more likely to die from opioid overdoses if they live near a manufacturing plant that closed in the last five years.
“Our findings illustrate the importance of declining economic opportunity as an underlying factor associated with the opioid overdose crisis,” researchers from the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania wrote in the study.
Researchers examined opioid death rates in 112 manufacturing counties across the US that had at least one manufacturing plant close since 1999. A majority of the counties were in the South and Midwest regions of the country.
From 1999 to 2016, plant closures affected 29 counties. Those counties saw 85% higher opioid overdose deaths than counties without closures.
Researchers noted that white working-age men were mostly affected.
“The current opioid overdose crisis may be associated in part with the same structural changes to the US economy that have been responsible for worsening overall mortality among less-educated adults since the 1980s,” researchers said.
As we’ve noted before, the opioid crisis in the last several decades has unfolded in three waves: The first wave of prescription pills started right before the Dot Com bust and ended around the 2008 financial crisis. The second wave began in 2009 and was associated with a significant increase in heroin-related deaths. The third wave started in 2015, which involved the proliferation of synthetic opioids, such as fentanyl. Each wave saw a greater number of overdose deaths. In total, more than 400,000 people died from 1999 to 2017.
The link between auto plant closures and the rise in opioid-related deaths suggests the nation is dying.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 15:50 - Watch: 20 Times Leftists Went Berserk On Campus In 2019
Watch: 20 Times Leftists Went Berserk On Campus In 2019
TRIGGERED: Violence, destruction, rage…
Students who touted conservative, Republican, Constitutional or pro-life opinions on college campuses over the last 12 months were often met with extreme resistance.
Throughout 2019, leftists were wildly triggered by opinions they disagreed with, prompting them to vandalize or destroy displays, disrupt events, shout down speakers, scream at the top of their lungs — and even physically assault their right-of-center peers.
Many of these examples were caught on camera.
Here is a look back at some of the most extreme examples The College Fix has reported on over the last year.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 12/31/2019 – 15:35
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