Mar 01

Today’s News 1st March 2022

  • Victor Davis Hanson: The Crowded Road To Kyiv
    Victor Davis Hanson: The Crowded Road To Kyiv

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via AmGreatness.com,

    To retain our deterrence abroad, we must tighten our belts at home, pump oil and gas, start to balance our budget, junk wokeism as a nihilist indulgence, and recalibrate our military…

    One of the oddest commentaries about the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the boilerplate reaction that “borders can’t change in modern Europe” or “this does not happen in the 21st century.” 

    But why in the world should the 21st century be exempt from the pathologies of the past 20 centuries? Are we smarter than the Romans? More innovative than Florentines? Do we have more savvy leaders than Lincoln or Churchill? Are they more mellifluous than Demosthenes? Does anyone now remember that some 130,000 were slaughtered just 30 years ago in the former Yugoslavia, as NATO planes bombed Belgrade and nuclear America and Russia almost squared off? 

    Has globalization, the “rules-based order,” the Davos reset elite, the “international community” so improved the very way humans think that they have rendered obsolete the now ossified ancient idea of deterrence? Will the Kardashians and Beyoncé tweet our pathway to global peace? 

    How about transnational NGOs? NATO? WHO? The UN? Are all their recent records of service proof of our more exalted modern morality? Will some new engineered Wuhan virus alter human nature, end its innate ancient pathologies, and so eliminate war as we knew it? Are we not the League of Nations because Putin is now chair of the Security Council? 

    In truth, anything can happen to anyone, anywhere,  at any time—and has and will until the end of time. 

    So let us walk down the crowded road to Kiev. 

    The Russian Agenda

    Putin feels that Russia was once a great player (defined mostly as “feared”) in world affairs. But now it—i.e., he— is not. He thinks if he can grab back some of the old Soviet Union’s now lost 100 million people and 30 percent of its territory, then his Russia would again become a superpower—especially given the natural wealth of his former Soviet republics. 

    He knows that the longer some of these republics are Westernized and become acculturated to the passions of popular culture, the more difficult it will be to coerce them into becoming Russian subordinates. So Putin feels a sense of urgency that in the past was not always his conniving trademark—but now perhaps accentuated by his age or health. UN Security Council Chair Putin’s pique at his supposed wounds is endless given his incessant citations of NATO bombing on kindred Serbia, the 2004 orange revolution, or the 2008 Ukrainian coup. 

    He feels we are decadent, soft, pampered—to the point of not replying to his provocations. So, he presses. In his Stalinesque mind, we purportedly do not deserve the power and influence we supposedly inherited at his expense, while his Russia, he boasts, is tough, religious, and deserves far more from the modern age than its current diminished status. Like Stalin, he has developed a visceral dislike of sermonizing Western elites, none of whom he thinks can box, judo kick, fish, shoot, or ride bare-chested at his level. 

    So, to the degree Putin believes in a cost-to-benefit analysis that any envisioned invasion will prove profitable, he will invade anywhere he feels the odds favor his agenda. And when he does not—if America or NATO offers a deterrent, if oil is plentiful and cheap, and if Western leaders are sober and strong rather than loud and weak—he will not so gamble. It’s really that simple. Feed Putin a hand, and he will gobble a torso. 

    Will Ukraine Survive? 

    In theory, Ukraine should not last, given the numerical odds against it. Mysteriously it almost seems unprepared for a massive invasion. Its roads are apparently not blocked and mined. Putin has been massing troops since November, so why did not NATO flood the country with weapons in late 2021 to ensure endless supplies of anti-tank and anti-plane missiles? 

    Still, the Russians may, we hope, have a hard time of it in Ukraine—if for no other reason than the country is larger than Iraq in both size and population. It has lots of supply conduits across the borders with four NATO countries that can finally begin pouring in weaponry. An invader that cannot stop resupply from third-party neighbors can rarely subdue its target. 

    So if in a week Putin cannot shock and awe the elite or decapitate the government, he will have a hard time subduing the population. Time is not on his side. Sanctions are worthless in the short term but eventually they can bite. 

    His tripartite semi-circular attack on Ukraine is uncannily similar to Hitler’s 1939 invasion of Poland from East Prussia, Germany, and the dismembered Czechoslovakia. But even Hitler who was helped later by the invasion of the Soviet Union from the east, lost 50,000 dead and wounded from a poorly equipped Polish army. 

    Fossil Fuels 

    Gas and oil, and thus who tried to curtail both, explain a lot of the current mess. The nihilist Biden decision voluntarily to cancel new pipelines, federal leases, ANWAR, and leverage loss of bank financing for fracking, and to give up well over 2 million barrels of daily production will be seen not just as an economic disaster. It was a strategic catastrophe. 

    When Europe, or indeed the West, is dependent on Russian goodwill to drive and keep warm, it can never be free. Ending American energy independence is not just an AOC obsession. Russian hackers in January targeted our Colonial pipeline, shutting down in a day over 1 million barrels of transported oil. The more we discount the strategic consequences of having or lacking oil, the more our enemies fixate on it. 

    A couple of questions for Joe Biden: Before he took office, was the United States begging Russia to sell it more oil? After he took office, why was it? 

    Why did Biden blow-up energy dependence? Could not tomorrow Biden reverse course, greenlight the Keystone pipeline, reverse his mindless opposition to the EastMed pipeline that would help allies Cyprus, Greece, and Israel to help other allies in southern Europe, and throw open new federal leasing to supply exports of liquid natural gas to Europe? 

    What is moral, and what amoral: alienating Bernie Sanders and the squad or keeping our allies and ourselves safe from foreign attack? What is so ethical about following the green advice of billionaires like global jet-setter John Kerry at the expense of the middling classes who cannot afford to drive their cars or warm their living rooms?

    A Deterrent Military? 

    Factor in the Afghanistan humiliation, the walk away from $80 billion in arms and equipment, a $1 billion Kabul embassy, a multimillion-dollar refit of Bagram Airbase, the woke politicization of the Pentagon, the McCarthyite hunt inside the ranks for white rage/supremacy, the inane rantings of retired admirals and generals, the revolving door of four-stars to defense contractor boards—and in just three years, the military lost a half-century of American public support. 

    All this and more have eroded the global fear of the U.S. military. We have all but destroyed American trust in our own armed forces (only 45 percent of the Americans poll great confidence in the military). The woke threat is in addition to spiraling pensions and social justice overhead that make the defense budget lean on actual defense readiness. Enemies did not erode our military’s once feared deterrence, our own top military and civilian leadership did. Time is short, enemies numerous. Can we find any brave soul who will restore the military? 

    American Goliath? 

    America may be woke. It may feel it has transcended dirty fossil fuels and can thrive on wind, solar, and batteries. It may assume it is morally superior, and like 19th-century pith-helmeted British foreign officers, can sermonize to the world, from pride flags and George Floyd murals in Kabul to no need for security in Benghazi. 

    But we also are mired in $30 trillion in debt. We print $2 trillion a year in mockery of inflation. Our major cities are crime-ridden and the streets medieval with the homeless and sidewalk sewers. Race relations are the worst in memory. 

    We have no southern border. Nearly 50 million residents were not born in our country—and this challenge at a time when we have given up on assimilation and integration. The woke virus has warped racial and ethnic relations and is destroying the idea of meritocracy. We are in the hold of a Jacobin madness, in a top-down elite race to perdition. To praise America’s past is a thought crime. The ignorant, who have no idea of the date when the Civil War began, nonetheless lecture to the nodding that 1619 not 1776 was America’s real foundational date.

    In short, the America of even 1990 no longer exists. To retain our deterrence abroad, we must tighten our belts at home, pump oil and gas, start to balance our budget, junk wokeism as a nihilist indulgence, and recalibrate our military. 

    NATO 

    NATO is now a mere construct. It was birthed and exists to do three things in Europe: keep America in, Germany down, and Russia out. Now Germany is up. America is out. And Russia is in. 

    The vast majority of the alliance’s members followed Germany’s anti-American prompt to renege on promises to spend a mere 2 percent of their budgets on military readiness. How strange that only thousands of deaths in Ukraine can soon persuade the arrogant German leadership that their own performance-art pacifism kills. 

    NATO’s richest and second largest member, Germany, polls a desire to become closer to Russia than to the United States. Does that mean they favor Putin’s invasion rather than NATO’s resistance? Sixty percent of Germans poll no desire to honor NATO’s Article Five clause of mutual assistance, and thus would not wish to aid a fellow member in extremis. 

    Germany, on its way to green Lalaland, ignored all warnings about conducting a $1-billion-dollar per-day natural gas purchase from Putin. Think of the following absurdities: Germans no longer like Americans all that much. But they do expect them to subsidize their defense and to protect them from Russians, with whom in turn they are cementing lucrative energy deals. The latter will eventually make them dependent on Putin for 50 percent of their energy needs. 

    So what is NATO? In truth, 25 or so of the 30 nation members are defenseless. They rely on the United States to protect them from enemies in their own backyard. Only the NATO nuclear monopolies of Britain and France offer a deterrent umbrella over both NATO and the EU—on the quiet assurance that a far bigger nuclear American umbrella covers all of them. 

    We should simply ask those who will meet their promised military commitments to stay, and the others to go quietly in peace and follow the Swiss model. Why are there any U.S. combat troops in Germany? Are they there to protect the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russian attack? To reward Germany for spending less than two percent on defense? 

    China 

    For five years Americans were obsessed not just with Putin, but the left-wing myth that Russians were under all our beds—the tattooed, gap-toothed cruddy villains of Hollywood movies, the supposed Satanic colluders of the Steele dossier, the nefarious bankers who stealthily communicated at night with the White House. So we voluntarily gave up the old Russian triangulation card when we once played dictatorial China off against dictatorial Russia. The Kissingerian principle dictated that neither of the two should ever become closer to one another than either is to us. We gave all that up and instead hung on every word for two years of Bob Mueller, James Comey, and the lunatics at CNN. 

    Meanwhile, China birthed, and hid the origins of, a virus that destroyed the U.S. economy and undermined our entire culture. Thousands of Chinese are here mostly to aid in expropriating U.S. technical expertise. Add in the Uighurs and the now vanquished Tibet, and China outdoes even Putin in its human rights atrocities. If Ukraine falls, Taiwan will be the third nation that the West “lost” during the Biden Administration. 

    Leftwing Mania 

    On cue, an embarrassed Left now offers some surreal takes on why Putin went into Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014 and again into all of Ukraine in 2022—while mysteriously bookending the four invasion-free Trump years. We are told that hiatus was because Putin got all he wanted from Trump and rewarded him by not invading any of his neighbors. 

    Really? 

    Were Vladimir Putin and his advisors more or less delighted that their poodle Trump thankfully flooded the world with price-crashing oil? They were thankful Trump at least had killed Russian mercenaries in Syria? 

    Putin himself was content that the United States got out of his own advantageous missile deal? Was he thrilled that Trump sold once taboo U.S. offensive weapons to Ukraine? Did the Kremlin grow ecstatic when Trump upped the U.S. defense budget?  And was Russia especially thankful that Trump jawboned NATO into spending another $100 billion on defense? Did Putin clap when Trump killed Soleimani and Baghdadi, and bombed ISIS out of existence? 

    We are left being lectured to now by the ubiquitous retired Lt. Col Alexander Vindman, the political operative remonstrating America on its anemic response to saving his native Ukraine. All this from one of the key operatives of impeaching the one president who, unlike his progressive presidential predecessor, along with the Biden Burisma consortia, really did arm Ukraine and send it offensive weapons embargoed by the Left. 

    The useful Vindman may have been offered to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. But he never grasped that any country naïve enough to believe the Left’s empty promises about autonomy and freedom reified by mere liberal fiat will be sorely left all alone by its utopian patrons—once a nearby powerful thug invades. 

    Biden 

    Now we hear that midterm Biden has played the crisis wonderfully. The surreal progressive take on this crisis is that Winston Biden has corn-popped the “killer” Putin, metaphorically taken “the bully” behind the proverbial gym and given him a whomping, slammed his head on the global lunch counter, and in Biden’s deterrent fashion, called him a chump, one of the dregs, a junkie, fat, and a lying dog-faced pony soldier—and capped it all off with “You ain’t white!” 

    Joe threatened the toughest sanctions in history that on Wednesday would deter an invasion and by Saturday were never meant to at all. But Biden promises someday a “conversation” to decide whether at some time he still will issue the toughest sanctions in history. Until then, he invites Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy safe passage out of Kyiv—the quickest way to destroy the dogged Ukrainian resistance. 

    Left unsaid are the years of rapacious Biden family profiteering in Ukraine, a decade of leftist passive-aggressive love and hate of Russia, from obsequious reset to greedy Uranium One to pathetic “tell Vladimir . . .” to unhinged vetoing of sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. 

    What a crowded road to Kyiv.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 23:40

  • "Looting Results In Shooting On The Spot," Two Ukrainian Mayors Warn
    “Looting Results In Shooting On The Spot,” Two Ukrainian Mayors Warn

    Depleting food stocks added to the trauma of Ukrainians stranded in the war-torn country as Russia’s invasion stretches to a fourth day. People are looting supermarkets as their food and water supplies run out, and ATMs have no cash. In the attempt to deter mass lootings, mayors in two Ukrainian towns advised local law enforcement officers to shoot looters “on the spot,” according to RT News.

    “I am warning everyone: the police, the National Guard, the territorial defense units – they all received orders not to detain, they can just shoot on the spot. There will be no looting in the city,“ Zhytomyr’s Mayor Sergey Sukhomlyn told citizens of the city in a short Facebook video on Sunday. 

    Looting incidents have spiked across Ukraine since Russia began its invasion on Feb. 24. People are growing hungry as their food supplies run out and have no other option than raid supermarkets. The head of the Okhtyrka territorial community Pavel Kuzmenko issued a similar warning. 

    “Looting results in shooting on the spot,” Kuzmenko said in a Facebook video. He also warned that store owners who price gouge would also be considered looters. 

    Numerous videos surfaced on Twitter in the last 24 hours of what appears to be mass lootings at supermarkets. 

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    There have yet to be reports of any looters shot though one video surfaced on TikTok then reposted on Twitter shows a man duct-taped to a light pole for the world to see. 

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    Something perhaps worth noting for some is the fact that as the nation crumbles amid the invasion, the looting only appears to be at supermarkets – with people truly in desperate need of bread and milk – and oddly not big-screen televisions, Louis Vuitton purses, and PlayStations…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 23:20

  • 'Russian Propaganda' Is The Latest Excuse To Expand Censorship
    ‘Russian Propaganda’ Is The Latest Excuse To Expand Censorship

    Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

    “I’m concerned about Russian disinformation spreading online, so today I wrote to the CEOs of major tech companies to ask them to restrict the spread of Russian propaganda,” US Senator Mark Warner tweeted on Friday.

    Since then YouTube has announced that it has suppressed videos by Russian state media channels so that they’ll be seen by fewer people in accordance with its openly acknowledged policy of algorithmically censoring unauthorized content, as well as de-monetizing all such videos on the platform. Google and Facebook/Instagram parent company Meta both banned Russian state media from running ads and monetizing on their platforms in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Twitter announced a pause on ads in both Russia and Ukraine.

    “Glad to see action from tech companies to reign in Russian propaganda and disinformation after my letter to their CEOs yesterday,” Warner tweeted on Saturday. “These are important first steps, but I’ll keep pushing for more.”

    For years US lawmakers have been using threats of profit-destroying consequences to pressure Silicon Valley companies into limiting online speech in a way that aligns with the interests of Washington, effectively creating a system of government censorship by proxy. It would appear that we’re seeing a new expansion of this phenomenon today.

    And the imperial media are pushing for more. Articles and news segments warning of the sinister threat posed by Russian propaganda to misinform and divide western populations using the internet are being churned out at a rate that’s only likely to increase as this latest narrative management campaign gets into full gear. The Associated Press has a new article out for example titled “War via TikTok: Russia’s new tool for propaganda machine”.

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    “Armies of trolls and bots stir up anti-Ukrainian sentiment. State-controlled media outlets look to divide Western audiences. Clever TikTok videos serve up Russian nationalism with a side of humor,” AP warns.

    “Analysts at several different research organizations contacted by The Associated Press said they are seeing a sharp increase in online activity by groups affiliated with the Russian state,” AP writes. “That’s in keeping with Russia’s strategy of using social media and state-run outlets to galvanize domestic support while seeking to destabilize the Western alliance.”

    The “different research organizations” AP ends up citing include “Cyabra, an Israeli tech company that works to detect disinformation,” as well as the state-funded NATO narrative management firm The Atlantic Council.

    As tends to happen whenever a consensus begins to form that a certain category of speech must be purged from the internet, imperial spinmeisters are already working to expand the definition of “Russian propaganda” which must be purged from the internet to include independent anti-imperialist commentators like myself.

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    Imperial narrative manager Robert Potter has a thread on Twitter currently calling for me and other anti-imperialist content creators to be labeled “State-Affiliated Media” on Twitter and ideally de-platformed across all western social media, in my case solely because RT is one of the many outlets who occasionally choose to republish some of my blog posts for free.

    I am not as Potter claims “an OP Ed columnist for Russia Today.” I don’t work for RT, I don’t write for RT, I don’t submit articles to RT, and I’ve never been paid by RT or the Russian government. RT is just one of the outlets who sometimes avail themselves of my longstanding invitation for anyone who wants to to republish my work free of charge. That RT editors would find my daily rants against western imperialism agreeable is not scandalous or conspiratorial but normal and self-evident.

    Yet for agents of imperial narrative control like Potter (who ironically works directly for the US State Department but thinks my posts should be labeled “State-Affiliated Media” by Twitter), even this is enough to justify complete silencing. I will not be in the slightest bit surprised to see a great deal more of these efforts as the new cold war continues to escalate.

    The Center for Countering Digital Hate, an empire-loyal NGO ostensibly focused primarily on fighting racism and prejudice, has published a report accusing Facebook of failing to label Russian propaganda as such 91 percent of the times it occurs. The CCDH decried Mark Zuckerberg’s “failure to stop Facebook being weaponized by the Russian state”.

    This sudden narrative management thrust has also seen RT taken off the air in nations like Australia, Germany and Poland, with pressures mounting in France and the UK to follow suit.

    This despite the fact that all western powers would have to do to eliminate RT completely is simply start allowing leftist and anti-imperialist voices to be heard on mainstream media platforms. It would immediately suck up RT’s entire foreign audience as people who’d previously needed to look outside the mainstream for sane perspectives gravitate toward media made with much better funding and a higher level of talent.

    But of course we all know that’s never going to happen. The imperial media aren’t going to subvert RT by platforming voices who dispute the empire’s narratives no matter how badly they hate it, because the exact reason they hate RT is because it disputes the empire’s narratives. They’re not worried about Russian propaganda operations, they’re worried about someone else running interference on their own propaganda operations.

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    RT’s audience makes up about 0.04% of TV viewing in the UK. This isn’t about RT, it’s about the the agenda to continually expand and normalize the censorship of unauthorized speech. That’s what it was about when they were pretending it was about the need to fight Covid misinformation before that, and when they were pretending it was about the need to fight domestic US extremism before that, and when they were pretending it was about the need to defend election security before that, and when they were pretending it was about the need to fight Russian propaganda the first time before that one cycled back around again.

    Whoever controls the narrative controls the world. Humans are storytelling creatures, so whoever can control the stories the humans are telling themselves about what’s going on in the world has a great deal of control over the humans. Our mental chatter tends to dominate such a large percentage of our existence that if it can be controlled the controller can exert a tremendous amount of influence over the way we think, act, and vote.

    The powerful understand this, while the general public mostly does not. That’s all we’ve been seeing in these attempts to regulate ideas and information as human communication becomes more and more rapid and networked. An entire oligarchic empire is built on the ability to prevent us from realizing at mass scale that that empire does not serve us and inflicts great evil upon our world. The question of whether our species can awaken to its highest potential or not boils down to whether our dominators will succeed in locking down our minds, or if we will find some way to break free.

    *  *  *

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 23:00

  • Elon Musk Lends Gene Wilder's Nephew $6.7 Million To Help Him Buy, Preserve, Late Actor's Home
    Elon Musk Lends Gene Wilder’s Nephew $6.7 Million To Help Him Buy, Preserve, Late Actor’s Home

    The world of Elon Musk knows no limit to bizarre stories. Pivoting from a report last week that Musk was being probed, along with his brother Kimbal, by the SEC for potential trading violations related to dumping stock in November 2021, this morning’s story about Musk concerns late actor Gene Wilder’s former home.

    Musk had owned the house for some time and, upon announcing a couple years ago that he was going to sell all of his possessions, concern started to mount about the property and whether or not it should be preserved to honor the legendary actor.

    Well for those of you ‘waiting to exhale’ about this important controversy, you can now breathe a sigh of relief: Jordan Walker-Pearlman, Wilder’s nephew, is reportedly buying the house from Musk and will prevent it from being torn down or otherwise replaced. 

    Apparently, Musk let the house go at discount prices, according to a report from Fox News. The report said that “Musk was willing to sell it to him for a significantly reduced price in order to ensure that house wasn’t demolished or majorly altered.”

    Walker-Pearlman had heard the house was for sale after Musk’s announcement that he was selling all of his physical possessions. Musk had said at the time that he would only sell the house to someone that wouldn’t tear it down or alter its “soul”. 

    Walker-Pearlman couldn’t pay the $9.5 million listing price but was able to contact Musk’s team and convince them that he wouldn’t demolish the home. Walker-Pearlman told Musk that Gene Wilder had raised him, and that he had memories of “cooking on the indoor grill, enjoying bran muffins every morning in the kitchen and teaching him to swim in the backyard pool.”

    Musk then agreed to offload the property to Walker-Pearlman for just $7 million – with Musk loaning Walker-Pearlman $6.7 million to help him consummate the deal.

    Fox News wrote that the contract “included an agreement known as a long-form deed of trust and assignment of rents, through which Musk loaned Walker-Pearlman $6.7 million.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 22:40

  • Taibbi: Putin The Apostate
    Taibbi: Putin The Apostate

    Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News Substack,

    We thought he would be our bastard. Then, he became his own bastard…

    The president of the Council of Foreign Relations, Richard Haass, made an extraordinary statement over the weekend. “Just days ago much of the world was focused on the unwanted prospect of regime change in Ukraine,” he tweeted. “Now the conversation has shifted to include the possibility of desired regime change in Russia.” Senior Brookings Institute fellow Benjamin Wittes was even more explicit:

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    For anyone expecting me to be outraged about this — I am, after all, almost daily denounced as a Putin-lover and apologist, so surely I must want the Great Leader to stay in power forever — I have to disappoint. If Vladimir Putin were captured tomorrow and fired into space, I wouldn’t bat an eye.

    I would like to point out that we already tried regime change in Russia. I remember, because I was there. And, thanks to a lot of lurid history that’s being scrubbed now with furious intensity, it ended with Vladimir Putin in power. Not as an accident, or as the face of a populist revolt against Western influence — that came later — but precisely because we made a long series of intentional decisions to help put him there.

    Once, Putin’s KGB past, far from being seen as a negative, was viewed with relief by the American diplomatic community, which had been exhausted by the organizational incompetence of our vodka-soaked first partner, Boris Yeltsin. Putin by contrast was “a man we can do business with,” a “liberal, humane, and decent European” of “alert, controlled poise” and “well-briefed acuity,” who was open to anything, even Russia joining NATO. “I don’t see why not,” Putin said. “I would not rule out such a possibility.”

    The New York Times Magazine, noting that the KGB of the seventies that Putin joined was no longer really a murder factory but just another “thinking corporation,” even compared him once to Russia’s first true Western-looking leader:

    In him, Russia has found a humane version of Peter the Great, a ruler who will open the country to the influence of a world at once gentler and more dynamic than Russia has ever been.

    I’ve been bitter in commentary about Putin in recent years because I never forgot the way the West smoothed his rise, and pretends now that it didn’t. It’s infuriating also that many of us who were critical of him from the start are denounced now as Putin apologists, I think in part because we have inconvenient memories about who said what at the start of his story. The effort to wipe that history clean is reaching a fever pitch this week. Before they finish the job, it seemed worth getting it all down.

    In late 1996, Vladimir Putin was at a career crossroads. His boss, Anatoly Sobchak, the first democratically elected Mayor of St. Petersburg, had just lost an election and with Putin’s help, was gearing up to flee the country to avoid corruption charges.

    Should Putin, too, flee abroad, perhaps to Germany, where he’d enjoyed a posting in his KGB days? He had his own reputation issues, having been inveigled in scandal in his time as Sobchak’s adviser and Deputy Mayor. In 1992, while head of a Petersburg Committee to attract foreign investment, he’d been given over $120 million in export quotas for timber, oil, and rare earth metals by the federal government, to trade for desperately needed food. The deal was approved by Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar and then-trade Minister (and future Alfa Bank heavy) Pyotr Aven. The raw materials were not bartered but pawned off to “various commercial structures,” as the newspaper Smena put it, and the city got back just two tankers of cooking oil.

    The Federal Accounting Chamber ended up writing a letter recommending that Mr. Putin not be considered for promotions. But the little man from the northern capital was destined for a higher calling…

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 22:20

  • Toyota To Halt All Japan Plants As Supplier Hit With Cyberattack
    Toyota To Halt All Japan Plants As Supplier Hit With Cyberattack

    Nikkei reports on Monday that Toyota Motor Corp. will suspend operations at all of its Japanese factories on Tuesday after one of its top suppliers was hit by a “suspected cyberattack.” 

    Kojima Industries, which manufactures plastic parts for Toyota, has been hit by a cyberattack, an official close to Kojima Industries told Nikkei. 

    “It is true that we have been hit by some kind of cyberattack. We are still confirming the damage and we are hurrying to respond, with the top priority of resuming Toyota’s production system as soon as possible,” the unnamed official said.

    The decision to suspend output at 28 lines at 14 plants could affect around 10,000 vehicles or about 5% of Toyota’s monthly production in Japan per day. Toyota subsidiaries Hino Motors and Daihatsu Motor will also halt some output on Tuesday. Here’s a map of automaker plants in the country. 

    As for when the cyberattack is resolved, it could be as soon as Wednesday. 

    “Automakers are still determining whether they will be able to return to normal operations after Wednesday,” Nikkei said. 

    The incident will derail Toyota’s efforts to return to full production following halts in January and February due to ongoing semiconductor shortages, labor woes, and other COVID-related disruptions. 

    Perhaps, the Bank of Japan has found another excuse to keep interest rates pinned near zero. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 22:00

  • Could Russia And China Collectively Challenge The Dollar's Reserve Status?
    Could Russia And China Collectively Challenge The Dollar’s Reserve Status?

    Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

    The war being waged by Russia in Ukraine shows no signs of coming to any type of peaceful end.

    Meanwhile, it appears to me that a separate war on the U.S. dollar could be “officially” waged at any moment, by Russia and China collectively, as the situation in Ukraine grows more dire, as Russia’s options wane and its ties with China grow closer.

    While the hope is still to avoid a World War III type scenario, escalating sanctions from the West are forcing an increasingly unhinged Vladimir Putin to consider his options for pushback.

    For example, on Sunday, Putin put nuclear deterrence forces on high alert as a response to increasing pressure from NATO, in a move that the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations said “escalates the conflict unacceptably.”

    Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS

    In the same breath that Putin made this announcement, he continued to push back on economic sanctions being levied against Russia:

    “As you can see, not only do Western countries take unfriendly measures against our country in the economic dimension – I mean the illegal sanctions that everyone knows about very well.”

    This may be because the bigger story over the weekend was the beginning of removing Russia from the SWIFT intra-bank messaging system, along with sanctions targeting Russia’s Central Bank.

    SWIFT helps provide services related to the execution of financial transactions and payments between banks worldwide. Central Bank sanctions from the EU and the Fed instantly make Russia – and its currency, the ruble – pariahs elsewhere in the world.

    Russia’s Central Bank reserves are generally controlled by foreign central banks. If those foreign banks decide to freeze access to such reserves, Russia only has its tangible assets (such as oil, and gold reserves) to fall back on.

    The ruble is expected to collapse as a result of these sanctions.

    Said one analyst on Twitter over the weekend, the Kremlin “has no good off-ramps at this point”.

    The obvious consequences of these sanctions is a run on Russia’s banks and a crippling of the Russian economy.

    The Bank of Russia (Russia’s Central Bank) will now try to prevent a crisis of confidence among the citizens of the country to slow the economic bleeding.

    The BBC reported that Russia’s Central Bank has claimed it “has the necessary resources and tools to maintain financial stability and ensure the operational continuity of the financial sector.”

    Regardless of whether this is true (the global FX markets will be the judge), it brings up a topic that only “conspiracy theorists” have talked about for decades: the resolve of fiat currencies, and the importance of having tangible bank reserves.

    During decades of peace, it’s easy to simply ignore critical questions raised about the backing of fiat currencies while the next trillion dollars casually rolls off the Fed printer and is inequitably distributed through programs like the Paycheck Protection Program. Not unlike equity markets when they’re in a mania, few critical questions are asked while loopholes like money printing are exploited until something eventually gives out.

    Now, something is giving out. All those quotes about the “world order” changing as a result of Putin’s recent action? They’re worth paying attention to. They’re the definition of something “giving out”.

    Today’s blog post has been published without a paywall because I believe the content to be far too important. However, if you have the means and would like to support my work by subscribing, I’d be happy to offer you 22% off to become a subscriber in 2022:

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    When push comes to shove and things get down to brass tacks, people want to know what backs their currency, and it’s not just Russia in this case. While they’re going to be the obvious example, I think economic tensions between Russia and the West are going to stoke a far larger global discussion about the fiat system in general.

    After all, heading into this massive conflict, we were already at the precipice of “The Great Reset”, right?

    Now, China and Russia may speed that “reset” along much quicker – and in much more volatile fashion – than Klaus Schwab would approve of.

    Sorry, Klaus.

    Photo: TIME

    The fact is that if Putin has his mind made up to “go the distance” in Ukraine, come hell or high water, he’s going to have to somehow address the crippling of his country’s currency and economy. Left with few “off-ramps”, my guess is that Putin will push back on economic sanctions by allying himself further with China, and even discussing with China the prospects of a monetary system outside of the current global monetary system.

    While the idea will likely be written off by economic experts, it’s important to remember that, even if such an idea doesn’t succeed, it could still create chaos for global economic markets and life in the West. We’re already in the midst of a supply chain crisis here in the U.S. – now, add to that the facts that:

    1. Russia has tangible reserves in the form of oil and gold. Russia is the top supplier of imported gasoline to the United States. “In 2021, Russia accounted for 21% of all U.S. gasoline imports,” Forbes writes.

    2. China is a major supplier of…basically everything…we use in the West on a daily basis. China was the United States’ largest supplier of goods imports in 2020, according to the USTR. China is currently our largest goods trading partner with $559.2 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2020, the same report notes.

    Trade deficits hit further records in 2021, the WSJ reported earlier this month.

    In other words, we get tons of stuff – for lack of a better word – from both countries.

    This prediction shouldn’t surprise anyone that has been paying attention.

    Just one year ago, the idea of Russia and China working together to de-dollarize themselves made headlines. The Washington Post reported on the steps the two countries were collectively taking in April 2021:

    China and Russia have vowed to jointly “de-dollarize,” creating alternatives to the current system with a three-step plan that began a few years ago. First, both countries began to cut back the proportion of their bilateral trade invoiced in dollars, privileging settlement in their own currencies.

    Second, they have sought to boost the renminbi’s role as an international currency for payments and reserves. To encourage wider adoption of its currency, China has given more than 30 countries renminbi access through bilateral swap agreements. China and Russia each scaled back their U.S. Treasury holdings, with Russia channeling cash into renminbi holdings. And China has ramped up the digital currency drive it began in 2014, with the goal of making it easier to hold renminbi.

    The third and last leg of these efforts, still underway, aims to create alternative payments and messaging systems allowing countries to use home and partner currencies instead of dollars or euros to settle trade and investment deals.

    Far be it for me to agree with the Washington Post, but they were spot on in early 2021 when they concluded that:

    “If China and Russia devise successful alternatives to the dollar-centered financial system, and if these alternatives gain significant international traction, we would be witnessing a cataclysmic moment in great power rivalry.”

    Meanwhile, we have been standing idly by, watching Russia dump U.S. treasuries while increasing its FX reserves over the last 5 years.

    Russia's dollar reserves likely shifted to swaps after it dumped Treasuries

    Russia has also been increasing its holdings of gold over the same period:

    De-dollarization and a financial alliance between Russia and China was being reported in 2020, as well.

    Nikkei wrote at the time:

    Dedollarization has been a priority for Russia and China since 2014, when they began expanding economic cooperation following Moscow’s estrangement from the West over its annexation of Crimea. Replacing the dollar in trade settlements became a necessity to sidestep U.S. sanctions against Russia.

    The idea of a Russia-China alliance to try and collapse the U.S. economic system isn’t new, either. Russia tried to push China create chaos for the U.S. in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

    “Russia may have tried to conspire with China in a bid to collapse the U.S. financial system. They were hoping to sell Fannie and Freddie bonds during a time when the U.S. economy was on the ropes,” Insider wrote in 2010, citing Hank Paulson’s memoir about the crisis.

    Paulson wrote in his memoir:

    “The report was deeply troubling — heavy selling could create a sudden loss of confidence in the GSEs and shake the capital markets. I waited till I was back home and in a secure environment to inform the president.”

    Stories like this flew under the radar, anyone who brought up the idea that this could be part of some larger plan was largely ignored, and the story didn’t make waves – at least, not in the way I think it’s going to now.

    Today’s blog post has been published without a paywall because I believe the content to be far too important. However, if you have the means and would like to support my work by subscribing, I’d be happy to offer you 22% off to become a subscriber in 2022:

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    In a podcast I did with Danielle DiMartino Booth, formerly of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, in 2020, she claimed that a “hot war” could be the only thing that could dethrone the dollar as the world reserve currency.

    Now, we are in that situation.

    Pieces that I have written in the past, including my prediction that China is going to back its new digital currency with gold – all of a sudden look like discussions that need to take place, post-haste. I wrote last year:

    China thinks in terms of generations and centuries. They are officially playing the long game. And don’t let the lack of a hot war fool you, the gears and wheels of trying to advance their country’s interests are there, grinding away slowly behind the scenes, for those who care to peek behind the curtain.

    Backing their currency with gold could be seen by Xi as the ultimate “Trump card” of sorts, especially as the U.S. has watched its currency fall into a precarious position over the last 18 months due to unprecedented quantitative easing. It’s the type of revelation that, if done correctly by China, can immediately hoist China’s economic status to the top of the global ladder and can immediately challenge other countries to follow suit.

    Except those “other countries” won’t be nearly as prepared to “flip the switch” to a gold-backed currency, because we will not have even considered the idea.

    Now, it could be time for China and Russia to collectively “flip the switch”.

    The writing has been on the wall for a while: Russia and China “de-dollarizing”, both countries stacking their gold reserves and China quickly looking to implement a digital currency.

    Over the last five years, only overtly paranoid people like me looked at these actions and concluded they were the lead up to something much bigger.

    Now that Russia has put itself at war with the West, the potential reasons, all of a sudden, become much clearer.

    I have long argued that our arrogant treatment of the US dollar and our reliance on being able to print it whenever we want was a fool‘s errand. Austrian economists and conservatives who made these points were written off as conspiracy theorists for making suggestions that our country should shore up its balance sheet and back its currency with something tangible.

    Now, in the midst of one of the most consequential wars in decades, our people may be starting to see exactly why having your monetary policy house in order is a good idea. Because the shit, eventually, always hits the fan.

    And if the dollar is challenged – even if it holds its place as the world reserve currency – they’re still going to be a lot of uncomfortable questions we’re going to have to ask ourselves about monetary policy afterwards. So far, Tucker Carlson has been the only mainstream news anchor with either the foresight, courage or both to broach the subject, as he did a couple days ago.

    Despite his comments, it still doesn’t seem that most people understand that war could be waged not just on Ukraine, but on the dollar.

    To me, it only seems like the logical next step. I hope I’m wrong, but it looks as though the unprecedented times we are living through may still get far more unprecedented.

    Zero Hedge readers can use the coupon link to get 20% off a subscription for as long as you want to remain a subscriber: Get 20% off

    (A recent Atlantic article does a great job describing, in depth, how the above mentioned SWIFT & Central Bank-related economic sanctions work in practice, for those looking for a deeper understanding.)

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 21:40

  • Roman Abramovich Joins Ukrainian Delegation To Help Negotiate For Peace
    Roman Abramovich Joins Ukrainian Delegation To Help Negotiate For Peace

    Update (2100ET): According to The Times, Abramovich’s move to pass control of Chelsea to the club’s charitable foundation has been put on hold,with the trustees taking legal advice on whether it is even possible.

    The Times understands that at least one trustee fears that they may have to resign amid concerns around a potential conflict of interest.

    The six-strong board of trustees, which includes British Olympic Association chairman Sir Hugh Robertson and anti-discrimination campaigner Piara Powar, held talks with legal advisers on Sunday and will wait for their guidance.

    On Monday the Charity Commission confirmed that it has contacted the Chelsea Foundation with a request for more information, while the trustees have yet to agree to an arrangement that would pass the stewardship of the club to them.

    Read more here…

    *  *  *

    As we detailed earlier, while other oligarchs –  a loosely defined term to denote an individual who made their fortune during the chaotic aftermath of the Soviet Union’s collapse – have publicly tried to distance themselves from the Russian advance in Ukraine, Chelsea Football Club owner Roman Abramovich has placed his ownership of the club in a private trust while he moves to engage in the peace talks being held between Moscow and Kyiv.

    Abramovich said he had been asked by the government in Ukraine to join the team of negotiators in Belarus, where a handful of Ukrainians are currently engaged in talks with their Russian counterparts. His role was eventually confirmed by another broker in the talks. A representative for the billionaire added that Abramovich had become involved following a request from the Jewish community in Kyiv.

    “I can confirm Roman Abramovich was contacted by the Ukrainian side for support in achieving a peaceful resolution, and that he has been trying to help ever since,” a spokeswoman for Abramovich said.

    “Considering what is at stake, we would ask for understanding as to why we have not commented on either the situation as such or his involvement.”

    The Russian-Israeli billionaire is believed to have flown to Eastern Europe in the weeks leading up to the invasion. Word of Abramovich’s involvement in talks was first reported by Jewish News, which said Kyiv had reached out through Jewish contacts to seek his help.

    Abramovich, who is Jewish and has Israeli citizenship, was one of the most powerful businessmen who earned fabulous fortunes after the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union. Forbes has estimated his net worth at $13.3 billion. He purportedly earned a fortune during the post-Soviet collapse during the looting and general insanity.

    A commodity trader who thrived in the post-Soviet disorder of the 1990s under then-President Boris Yeltsin, Abramovich acquired stakes in the Sibneft oil company, Rusal aluminium producer and Aeroflot airline were also among the businesses he acquired.

    He has repeatedly denied having ties to Putin or the Kremlin, although such claims have persisted in the press.

    Although under Putin he did, albeit briefly, serve as the governor of the remote Arctic region of Chukotka in Russia’s Far East.

    As for his decision to turn over control of Chelsea to its charitable trust, the board’s trustees must still hold a vote to OK the measures, although its likely to pass. Abramovich also released a terse, 24-word statement on Sunday denouncing the invasion, becoming one  of a handful of oligarchs to party with them must have likely been fighter.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 21:20

  • Poison Control Centers Warn About Toxic Chemical In At-Home COVID-19 Test Kits
    Poison Control Centers Warn About Toxic Chemical In At-Home COVID-19 Test Kits

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Some at-home rapid COVID-19 tests contain a toxic chemical that may be harmful to both children and adults, according to health officials.

    A Flowflex COVID-19 Lateral Flow (LFT) self-test kit, containing a SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Test, arranged for a photograph, in London on Feb. 20, 2022. (Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images)

    The Cincinnati Drug and Poison Information Center reported an uptick in accidental exposures to a possibly toxic substance in at-home COVID-19 test kits, according to a blog post. Meanwhile, the National Poison Control Center issued a warning about the chemical.

    “It is important to know that the extraction vial in many rapid antigen kits includes the chemical sodium azide as a preservative agent,” the center said. “The BinaxNow, BD Veritor, Flowflex, and Celltrion DiaTrust COVID-19 rapid antigen kits all contain this chemical.”

    Sodium azide is a colorless, odorless powder that testers dip cotton swabs into. The chemical is found in herbicides, pest control agents, and airbags for cars.

    “Small doses of sodium azide can lower blood pressure, and larger doses may cause more serious health effects,” an advisory from Health Canada also said. “ProClin is also found in many kits. It contains chemicals that can cause skin and eye irritation, as well as allergic reactions.”

    Some hospitals around the United States say they have received a surge in phone calls about exposures to the chemical.

    “We started getting our first exposures to these test kits around early November,” said Sheila Goertemoeller, pharmacist and clinical toxicologist for the Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center. “It was, really, all ages.”

    “Mostly, I’ve been very worried about our young children.”

    Accidental exposure is occurring among both children and adults, said Dr. Kelly Johnson-Arbor, with the National Capital Poison Center in Washington, told WNEP over the weekend.

    “People might mistake them for eye drops. Children might drop it onto their skin. Adults will sometimes mistakenly put them into their eyes,” she said.

    “You don’t want to leave it on the skin because it could potentially cause an allergic reaction or a skin rash.

    “If someone drinks the solution, it’s really important to contact poison control right away. The solutions have different ingredients. Some have non-toxic ingredients and others have more dangerous ingredients.”

    Officials told WNEP that there’s no need to throw away the test kits, but people should be mindful when using them.

    “Use them properly, dispose of them properly, and it won’t cause an issue,” Dr. Jeffrey Jahre, with St. Luke’s University Health Network, told the outlet.

    If you suspect you or someone you know has ingested the chemical, officials recommend not to make the person vomit. For eye exposures, rinse the eyes for 15 to 20 minutes with warm water. For skin exposures, rinse the skin well with tap water. Immediately check the Poison Control Center’s online tool for guidance or call poison control at 1-800-222-1222, the website says.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 21:00

  • China To "Immediately" Replenish Pork Supplies As World Short Commodities
    China To “Immediately” Replenish Pork Supplies As World Short Commodities

    China’s top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), announced Monday to “immediately” increase pork stockpiles around the country after prices fell last week, according to Bloomberg. 

    NDRC said the country’s staple meat stockpiles are being replenished as an index monitoring pork prices slipped below a critical threshold. The national average of pork prices against grain prices index registered 4.98 to 1 between Feb. 21 and 25, falling below the 5 to 1 ratio. The ratio signals the need for China to increase pork supplies. 

    Hog prices are back to levels not seen since before the African swine fever ravaged pig herds across the country, right before the virus pandemic. 

    NDRC will increase pork purchases to provide the hog market with stability. As much as 40,000 tons of frozen pork will be added to state reserves. 

    “The goal of stockpiling is to stop the market prices from excessive fall, to improve supply-demand balance, and boost prices (of pork) and the confidence of farmers,” Wang Zuli, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development under the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told Reuters. 

    The economic planner will work with authorities to immediately stockpile for state and local reserves. Stockpiling has already begun in the provincial level, including Beijing, Jiangxi, Hubei, and Chongqing. 

    As early as September 2020, we noted China began panic hoarding commodities. Bloomberg, at the time, called them “mammoth” purchases of crude, strategic materials, and farm goods, and Michael Every of Rabobank said, “This is being done to ensure China can ride out any repeat of this year’s supply disruptions, or deterioration in trade relations with the US, for example.”

    More than a year and a half later, China has a greater internal circulation of commodities than the rest of the world. 

    JPM’s Marko Kolanovic noted last week, “The world is short Commodities. China is not.” The Croatian quant said, “China currently holds an estimated 84% of global copper, 70% of corn, 51% of wheat, 40% of soybeans, 26% of crude oil and 22% of aluminum inventories.” 

    These massive stockpiles “serve as a hedge to inflation, geopolitical risks, and COVID reopening in what we see as a continued cycle of economic expansion. Although commodity inventories have contracted sharply, China’s share is abundant,” Kolanovic said. He added that only 48 days of consumption remain in global commodity inventories worldwide above ground.

    China’s latest move to panic hoard hogs may suggest record high global food inflation is dead ahead as the Russian invasion pushes up soft commodity prices on fears of supply disruptions. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 20:40

  • Russia’s Ukraine Invasion Scrambles Biden’s Green Agenda
    Russia’s Ukraine Invasion Scrambles Biden’s Green Agenda

    Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClear Politics (emphasis ours),

    In the middle of President Biden’s Thursday speech laying out sanctions and denouncing Russia for its “brutal” and unprovoked invasion into Ukraine, one line stood out. About halfway through, Biden sternly warned American oil and gas companies not to “exploit this moment to hike their prices to raise profits.”

    The harsh words roiled many Republicans who were strongly backing Biden’s sanctions against Russia while pressing him to put a halt to Moscow’s oil exports, which funded 36% of the country’s national budget last year.

    (AP Photo/Michael Sohn, File)

    Larry Kudlow, who served as Trump’s top economic adviser and is now a Fox Business host, praised Biden’s sanctions announcement but said the president’s lecture to U.S. oil companies made “the hair on the back of my neck stand up.”

    “Joe Biden just can’t help himself,” Kudlow added, casting the comments as an effort to pander to environmentalists in the middle of a global crisis.

    The U.S. bought 7% of its crude oil from Russia in 2021, and that’s the salient problem here, Biden’s critics say. They insist that Biden should do everything in his power to ramp up energy production at home – from re-opening the Keystone pipeline to increasing drilling permits on federal land – in an effort to rapidly expand U.S. oil and natural gas supplies. The goal, they say, should be to eliminate Americans’ need for Russian oil and natural gas, while simultaneously helping Europe shift to a U.S. supply.

    To free-market enthusiasts, the idea is simple and obvious.

    “If you carve out energy, that’s Putin’s lifeblood,” Rep. Mike McCaul, the ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, told Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo on Sunday.

    Ukrainian leaders, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, echoed the sentiments late last week.

    “We need real sanctions, not just some problems for Putin’s friends,” Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko said in a video posted to Twitter Thursday. “We need an embargo on Russian gas and oil because every barrel of Russian oil and every cubic meter of Russian gas is now full of the blood of Ukrainians.”

    In the near-term, the issue is more complicated. Immediately cutting off Russian oil supplies to Europe could do more harm to the West than to Moscow by pushing global oil prices higher than they already are, putting more money in the the coffers of Russian energy oligarchs loyal to Putin.

    The EU relies on Russia for a whopping 35% of its natural gas. Prices have been climbing amid the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, putting additional strain on a fuel-price crisis that began last year. On Thursday, the day of the invasion, national gas prices spiked 51% in Europe, and crude oil hit a seven-year high of $105 a barrel.

    Cutting off the Russian oil supply also won’t have the immediate impact many expect. Even though Europe is responsible for buying more than 70% of Russia’s natural gas sales and an EU embargo would hit Russia hard eventually, it’s unlikely to deter Putin’s designs on Ukraine. Moscow can absorb such a blow on the front end. In the last few years, Russia has built up all-time high foreign exchange reserves of $630 billion.

    For these reasons, the Biden administration and the European Union carefully crafted an energy exemption to last week’s sanctions against Russia to allow for the U.S. and Europe to continue purchasing Russian oil and gas and to avoid any “disruption” to their current flow.

    “We’ve carved out energy payments on a time-bound basis to allow for an orderly transition,” away from sanctioned Russian entities, Deputy National Security Adviser Daleep Singh told reporters late Thursday.

    Richard Nephew, a sanctions expert with Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, said a global embargo against Russia “isn’t a clean win for anyone.”

    “The bigger issue is a gross market one,” he tells RealClearPolitics in an email. “The Russians put out a lot of oil. They’re in the top three oil production/exporting list every year. Even if we maxed out our production, we’re not in a position to substitute for Russia in a global market.”

    Over time, however, Nephew said the U.S. and Europe could certainly start drawing down their use of Russian energy “allowing for other producers to step up or finding alternative means of providing energy.”

    That’s one of the painful lessons Europe and the Baltics need to take from this Russian invasion, according to Stephen Yates, a senior fellow at the America First Institute who served as a deputy national security adviser in the George W. Bush administration.

    “It’s very, very clear that the lecture that was delivered very bluntly to Europe by President Trump did not sink in … the fact that Europe has not invested enough in its own self-defense and did not wean itself sufficiently from dependence on Russia left it with limited options,” he told RCP in an interview last week.

    Nothing crystalizes geopolitical threats like the invasion of a neighboring country, and Europe was forced to wake up to a new reality. After pursuing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project for years, Germany abruptly froze certification of the project last week. EU officials on March 2 plan to announce a new strategy to reduce dependence on Russian energy as quickly as possible, with a target to reduce fossil fuel use by 40% by 2030.

    The U.S. also must change course to stop importing Russian energy as well. Doing so will take time and commitment, according to Michael O’Hanlon, the director of foreign policy research at the Brookings Institution.

    “We need a plan to go after existing oil and gas exports, upon which Russia depends for 60% of its total export earnings,” he wrote in an USA Today op-ed. “Our goal, stated or unstated, should be to drive the Russian economy into recession for the rest of Putin’s presidency if need be – unless he promptly agrees to be peaceful and take his forces home.”

    Achieving the energy decoupling won’t come overnight, O’Hanlon notes, but he’s clear about the steps.

    • Increase oil and gas production in North America and elsewhere.
    • Build more liquid natural gas terminals in western Europe.
    • Empower relevant gas authorities in Europe to pay higher prices for non-Russian gas.
    • And, where possible, accelerate transitions to greener energy sources.

    It’s no easy pivot for Biden, who shut down the Keystone Pipeline on his first day as president and committed to ending U.S. dependence on fossil fuels early in his campaign, at a presidential debate in none other than the fuel-reliant motor city of Detroit. Biden also would inevitably have to withstand an outcry from his liberal base to abandon their green agenda.

    Yates predicts that the president likely won’t make any dramatic changes to his climate policies unless he loses big in the November midterms, signaling the need for a drastic shift in priorities. “When it comes to energy independence, I fear we are stuck in that slower lane,” he said.

    Destabilizing world events, however, have a way of furiously shifting domestic priorities. Although White House press secretary Jen Psaki said last week that sanctioning Russia’s energy sector could “actually benefit President Putin and pad his pockets given high oil and gas prices,” she was quick to note, “it’s not off the table.”

    Later in the week, Psaki tried to put a green spin on the possibility of weaning the U.S. off foreign oil, even if the initial attempt inevitably would require more U.S. commitments to increase domestic oil and gas production to meet the shifting European demand.

    She said the Russian invasion of Ukraine makes the case for reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil “even stronger,” arguing that Biden supports “diversifying the range and means of energy production everywhere around the world.”

    Just how quickly and sharply Biden is willing to shift gears on U.S. fossil fuel production will play a crucial role in whether the West shows Russia and the world that it has learned its lesson, whether it continues to play into Putin’s hands or hits him where it really hurts – the energy sector.

    Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ White House/national political correspondent.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 20:20

  • House Abandons Mask Mandate Just In Time For Biden's State Of The Union
    House Abandons Mask Mandate Just In Time For Biden’s State Of The Union

    The House of Representatives is finally lifting its own mask mandate just in time for President Biden’s State of the Union address Tuesday night.

    Capitol Physician Brian Monahan announced the news in a letter to lawmakers returning to Washington this week: “Individuals may choose to mask at any time, but it is no longer a requirement,” he wrote.

    Monahan added that the rate of positive COVID tests at the Capitol had fallen to 2.7% during the last two weeks, below the current rate for the DC-Metropolitan area (which is 4.7%).

    According to the CDC’s new federal guidelines, Washington DC falls into the “green”  category, meaning no masking is required.

    Unfortunately for those who will be attending tonight’s event, Monahan said other “coronavirus risk reduction measures” would still be in place for the address, “with the exception that, KN95 or N95 mask wear is no longer required and mask wear is now an individual choice option.”

    So far, more than 35 states have abandoned their individual mask mandates, although some cities still have them in place. According to the new CDC guidelines, some 30% of the US falls under the “high risk” category, meaning mask wearing is still recommended. The thing is, many conservative states also passed laws banning mask requirements.

    The House had been following a mask mandate of its own making since July which was in line with guidance from the CDC. The Senate never adopted a mask mandate.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 20:00

  • Putin's Disinformation & Opportunity: Weapons Of Mass Destruction
    Putin’s Disinformation & Opportunity: Weapons Of Mass Destruction

    Authored by David Lasseter via RealClear Defense,

    Back in early 2020, when COVID-19 was spreading around the globe and public health professionals were struggling to make sense of the virus, the Russians, like the Chinese, were conducting information operations blaming America for the outbreak. The Russian Federation went so far as to suggest that the Richard Lugar National Center for Disease Control and Public Health in Tbilisi, Georgia, was producing biological weapons and could be responsible for releasing deadly agents, i.e., COVID-19, into former Soviet states. 

    RealClearDefense / Creative Commons

    At the time, I was the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). My Office and our colleagues at the Defense Threat Reduction Agency answered these Russian lies with facts. The Georgian and U.S. governments and public health professionals pushed back on these false and dangerous stories. The truth is that these labs are part of the Department of Defense Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) Program which works with international partners to mitigate WMD-related threats to the U.S. homeland, U.S. forces abroad, and U.S. partners and allies. We do this in over 30 countries worldwide because these labs improve the respective countries’ ability to detect, diagnose, and report the spread of especially dangerous pathogens.

    But this is what President Putin does – make irresponsible accusations and conduct disinformation campaigns. For years now, Putin’s government has falsely claimed that the CTR labs, specifically the Lugar Center, manufacture biological agents for the United States military. This is not true.

    In response to the COVID-19 mistruths, officials at the Lugar Center invited the Russian government to visit the facility. Russia demanded that if they visited, no other international governments or organizations be present. That counteroffer was refused since the Georgians knew it would enable Russia to proliferate obscene amounts of disinformation after an unsupervised visit. It would be an opportunity for Putin to manipulate the Georgian government and any gullible international press.

    COVID-19 origin facts aside, Russian government officials reiterated this propaganda in May 2021, stating that “deadly microorganisms” could be released from U.S. sponsored facilities in the region. Then again, earlier this month, through state-owned media, Russia claimed Tbilisi could use the Lugar Center’s research of infectious diseases for bioterrorism in the region. 

    In a joint Russia-Chinese statement following a February 4, 2022, meeting between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russia claims the U.S. supported labs in Ukraine contain deadly bioweapons saying: “The sides emphasize that domestic and foreign bioweapons activities by the United States and its allies raise serious concerns and questions for the international community regarding their compliance with the BWC [Biological Weapons Convention].”

    In a couple of months, the U.S. Department of State will release its annual WMD nonproliferation compliance report. This year’s report is unlikely to differ from the findings in recent iterations, including last year’s report. Namely, regarding chemical weapons, “the United States certifies that Russia is in non-compliance with the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)” and with respect to biological weapons, the “United States assesses that Russia maintains an offensive BW program and is in violation of its obligations under Articles I and II of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).”  What’s more, the Russian Federation’s blatant disregard for international law and associated norms concerning its nuclear program speaks for itself. While the use of nuclear weapons would have the most devastating and world-altering impact, it is an unlikely course of action at this time.

    However, it is Putin’s potential use of chemical and biological weapons that we should more fully appreciate. As we know, in 2018, former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were attacked with a previously unknown chemical agent, Novichok, in Salisbury, England. Then, in 2020, yet another unlawful attack via Novichok chemical agent occurred against Putin’s political rival, Alexei Navalny. Both attacks were violations of the CWC and reprehensible acts by a government. Additionally, and possibly the most egregious actions by the Russian Federation were those promulgated by the Syrian regime and likely known and condoned by Putin that resulted in asphyxiation, disfigurement, and even death of hundreds of innocent children, women, and men. 

    We should learn from the deaths of innocent people and view these previous attacks as test cases. We do not need to query whether they would use them. They have, and they will again. In the Salisbury attack, the world reacted quickly in condemning the action once the forensics were complete; however, the formal penalties or sanctions exacted by the world’s powers were rather ineffectual. A mere two and a half years later, Putin ordered another attack on a political rival. While the world recognized the signs of yet another attack, the reaction did little to adjust Putin’s use calculus by way of sanctions and diplomatic actions. With Syria, the world has not held Assad to account and has done absolutely nothing to punish the Russian Federation for their support and complicity.

    So, with Ukraine, we have a country Putin believes should rightly exist within Russia’s sphere of influence if not absolute control. A country with western fealty and NATO ambitions, he wants control and appears willing to garner it at the cost of war. We have already seen Russian officials and state supported media implicate CTR supported labs in Ukraine in any future biological warfare incidents. Recently, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken informed the world that Russia might execute a false flag chemical weapons attack in advance of a Ukraine invasion. While illegal and potentially very deadly, we shouldn’t think he would stop there.

    Throughout this Russian buildup, the Administration has chosen to selectively release intelligence through its own information operations. While many question the righteousness of doing so, it is the President’s prerogative. One nugget recently released is the existence of a Russian “kill list” of Ukrainians following military occupation. If true, these could be prime targets for WMD in the form of biological and chemical weapons.

    At this stage, all we can do is speculate based on historical knowledge, known capabilities, and the mindset of a malevolent, authoritarian leader. But the events in Salisbury and Syria, the disinformation operations related to legitimate threat reduction laboratories in former Soviet states, and the assessments provided in the State Department’s annual assessment of WMD programs tell us that Mr. Putin has means, motive, and opportunity. Let’s hope and pray he does not use these horrific weapons, but we shouldn’t be surprised when he does.

    * * *

    David F. Lasseter is the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction.  He is the Founding Partner at Horizons Global Solutions as well as a Visiting Fellow at the National Security Institute.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 19:40

  • Etsy To Slap Sellers With 30% Transaction Fee Hike (Again) 
    Etsy To Slap Sellers With 30% Transaction Fee Hike (Again) 

    Online marketplace Etsy appears to be screwing over its sellers (again) following a record-breaking fourth-quarter earnings report. The crafts-focused online marketplace announced raising seller transaction fees to 6.5% from 5%. 

    The 30% hike is expected to go into effect on April 11. The transaction fee is the percentage of the total order amount Etsy charges when a seller makes a sale and is the second time the company has raised seller fees. The last time was in 2018 when it went from 3.5% to 5%. 

    The added expense to sellers comes as Etsy announced fourth-quarter revenue of $717.1 million, up 16.2% year-over-year, which the company attributes to a strong Christmas shopping season. 

    “We have demonstrated our ability to make improvements that directly translate into more sales for our sellers, as evidenced by record sales per seller in 2021,” Etsy CEO Josh Silverman said in the earnings report. “Our new transaction fee will enable us to invest in key areas like marketing and support to further extend our strong momentum.”

    Sellers on Etsy’s community blog weren’t happy with the company’s decision to increase fees. Many sellers said Etsy’s ongoing squeeze on them could be the last straw, as one person called for a platform strike. Here’s what they had to say: 

    “Etsy has become so expensive that my shop pays more than I make and the average buyer can’t afford to shop here. I have been on this site struggling away since 2009 and it has got to the point where I will save money withdrawing my shop. I wrote a long letter explaining my issues and never even got a response. I think I am going to retire,” one seller said.

    Another seller said: “Even my little shop really should bump up prices because of the fee change. I’m afraid Etsy may be planning to keep bumping their prices up regularly now, so I’ll just have to risk some buyers deciding it’s not worth it. My work has to be worth it to me for the price.”

    Some sellers are even calling for a “platform-wide strike” to protest increased seller fees.

    Etsy is a business, and like any business today, costs are soaring because of the inflationary environment. The end result will be consumers who use the online platform will likely see prices increases come April as sellers pass them along. There’s going to be a breaking point of just how much inflation households can handle as consumer confidence slipped to 5-month lows last week as inflation bites. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 19:20

  • "Pandora's Box Of Harms": How Public Health Erred On Side Of Catastrophe
    “Pandora’s Box Of Harms”: How Public Health Erred On Side Of Catastrophe

    Authored by Brian McGlinchey via Stark Realities,

    Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, proponents of lockdowns, shelter-in-place orders, mask mandates and other coercive government interventions have characterized these measures as benevolently “erring on the side of caution.” Now, as the grim toll of those public health measures comes into ever-sharper focus, it’s increasingly clear those characterizations were terribly wrong.

    What’s less readily apparent, however, is how the very use of the “erring on the side of caution” framing was injurious in itself—by thwarting reasoned debate of public health policies, diverting attention from unintended consequences, and buffering the Covid regime’s architects from accountability.

    To understand how the misuse of “erring on the side of caution” performed a sort of mass hypnosis that coaxed populations into two years of submission to disastrous, overreaching policies, consider how the expression is typically used.

    In everyday life, one might err on the side of caution by:

    • Leaving for the airport an extra 30 minutes early
    • Carrying an umbrella when there’s a 25% chance of rain
    • Opting for a less-challenging ski slope
    • Going back into the house to make sure the iron is unplugged
    • Getting a second medical opinion

    Generally speaking, “erring on the side of caution” in everyday life means lowering risk with a precaution that has a negligible cost.

    When mandate proponents portrayed their edicts as “erring on the side of caution,” it had the effect of tacitly assuring the public—and themselves—that there’d be little or no harm associated with extreme measures like:

    • Shutting down businesses for months at a time
    • Knowingly forcing millions of people into unemployment
    • Halting in-person attendance at schools and colleges
    • Ordering people of all ages and risk profiles to wear masks
    • Denying people opportunities to socialize, recreate and enjoy living

    That implicit low-downside assurance not only fostered unthinking support for draconian measures among citizens and experts alike, it also cultivated an atmosphere of intolerance toward those who questioned the wisdom of these interventions and predicted the great many harms that have resulted.

    “Overconfident, unnuanced messaging conditioned us to assume that all dissenting opinions are misinformation rather than reflections of good faith disagreement or differing priorities,” write Rutgers professors Jacob Hale Russell and Dennis Patterson in their essay, The Mask Debacle. “In doing so, elites drove out scientific research that might have separated valuable interventions from the less valuable.”

    Of course, in addition to its implicit assurance that a risk-reduction measure comes at little cost, “erring on the side of caution” conveys an assumption that the precaution will actually be effective.

    That hasn’t been the case with Covid mandates. Though many continue embracing the illusion of government control over Covid, the contrary studies and real-world observations are stacking far too high to be denied any longer by the intellectually honest among us.

    Charts via Ian Miller at Unmasked

    Public Health Threw Out the Playbook and Threw Pandora’s Box Wide Open

    The masses who’ve chanted “I trust science,” as they praise each government intervention and idolize those who impose them, are likely unaware that, before Covid-19, the well-considered scientific consensus was against lockdowns, broad quarantines and masking outside of hospital settings—particular for a virus like Covid-19 that has a 99% survival rate for most age groups.

    For example, a 2006 paper published by the Center for Biosecurity of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center—focusing on mitigation measures against another contagious respiratory illness, pandemic influenza—reads like a warning label against many of the policies inflicted on humanity in the face of Covid-19:

    • “There is no basis for recommending quarantine either of groups or individuals. The problems in implementing such measures are formidable, and secondary effects of absenteeism and community disruption as well as possible adverse consequences…are likely to be considerable.”

    • “Widespread closures [of schools, restaurants, churches, recreations centers, etc] would almost certainly have serious adverse social and economic effects.”

    • “The ordinary surgical mask does little to prevent inhalation of small droplets bearing influenza virus…There are few data available to support the efficacy of N95 or surgical masks outside a healthcare setting. N95 masks need to be fit-tested to be efficacious.”

    The point of that and other pre-2020 research into pandemic mitigation was to be prepared, in times of crisis, with policies that reflected a well-reasoned and dispassionate weighing of costs and benefits.

    However, when the pandemic arrived, panicking public health officials and academics threw out the playbook and took their policy inspiration from the government that was first to confront the virus. Sadly for the world, that was communist China.

    The breadth of the resulting harms from the ensuing plunge into public health authoritarianism is staggering. Far from erring on the side of caution…

    Public health erred on the side of a mental health crisis. Anxiety and depression have surged, particularly among adolescents and young adults, where symptoms have doubled during the pandemic.

    “I have never been as busy in my life and I’ve never seen my colleagues as busy,” New York psychiatrist Valentine Raiteri told CNBC. “I can’t refer people to other people because everybody is full.”

    Public health erred on the side of juvenile suicide attempts. In the summer of 2020, emergency room visits for potential suicides by children leapt over 22% compared to the summer of 2019.

    Public health erred on the side of drug overdoses. According to the National Institute on Drug Abuse, overdose deaths surged 30% in 2020 to a record-high of more than 93,000. Among the factors cited: social isolation, people using drugs alone, and decreased access to treatment.

    Public health erred on the side of auto fatalities. Traffic deaths had been on a general downtrend since the 60s, reaching a near-record low in 2019. However, even with shutdown-lightened traffic, deaths jumped 17.5% in the summer of 2020 compared to 2019, and kept rising into 2021.

    Blame increased drug and alcohol use, along with psychological fallout from people being denied life’s fundamental pleasures. University of Texas cognitive scientist Art Markman told The New York Times that anger and aggression behind the wheel in part reflects “two years of having to stop ourselves from doing things that we’d like to do.”

    Public health erred on the side of domestic violence. A review of 32 studies found an increase in domestic violence around the world, with the increases most intense during the first week of lockdowns. “The home confinement led to constant contact between perpetrators and victims, resulting in increased violence and decreased reports,” the researchers found.

    Public health erred on the side of riots, arson and looting. It’s my own conviction that 2020’s eruption of summer violence following a Minneapolis police officer’s callous homicide of George Floyd was greatly magnified by the period of forced mass confinement that preceded it.

    Floyd’s death was a match dropped into a tinderbox of humanity confined to veritable house arrest. People blocked from restaurants and bars were suddenly granted a societal waiver to venture out into enormous crowds, where they found excitement, socialization and, far too often, a senselessly destructive means of venting months of pent-up energy, anxiety and frustration. It stands as the costliest civil unrest episode in American history.

    Public health erred on the side of confining people where the virus is transmitted most. Lockdowns ordered people away from workplaces, schools, restaurants and bars and into their homes, where New York contract tracers found 74% of Covid spread was happening, compared to just 1.4% in bars and restaurants and even less in schools and workplaces.

    Public health erred on the side of obesity. According to the CDC, “the risk of severe COVID-19 illness increases sharply with higher BMI [Body Mass Index].” So what happens when public health “experts” shut down schools, workplaces and recreation options and told people to stay home to stay “safe”?

    The CDC found that, in 2020, the rate by which BMI increased among 2- to 19-year olds doubled. Another study found that 48% of adults gained weight during the pandemic, with those who were already overweight most likely to add even more. Among other factors, the study pointed to psychological distress and having schoolchildren at home.

    Public health erred against fresh air, exercise and Vitamin D. Governments raced to shut down playgrounds, basketball courts and other outdoor recreation facilities. In a move that’s profoundly emblematic of heavy-handed, counterproductive authoritarianism in the age of Covid, the city of San Clemente, California filled a skate park with 37 tons of sand.

    Public health erred on the side of impaired child development. “We find that children born during the pandemic have significantly reduced verbal, motor, and overall cognitive performance compared to children born pre-pandemic,” say the authors of a study from Paediatric Emergency Research in the UK and Ireland (PERUKI).

    “Results highlight that even in the absence of direct SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 illness, the environmental changes associated [with the] COVID-19 pandemic [are] significantly and negatively affecting infant and child development.”

    Public health erred on the side of learning loss. Children are less vulnerable to Covid-19 than they are to the flu, and rarely transmit it to teachers. Unfortunately, American public health officials and teacher unions prevailed in halting in-person instruction (and socialization) in favor of “remote learning.”

    It was a poor substitute that fell hardest on the youngest learners. For example, according to curriculum and assessment provider Amplify, the percentage of first-graders scoring at or above the goals for their grade in mid-school-year dropped from 58% before the pandemic to just 44% this year.

    Public health erred on the side of pointlessly masking schoolchildren. When schools did open, mask mandates abounded—despite children’s relative invulnerability to the virus and the documented rarity of in-school transmission. A Spanish study showed no discernible difference in transmission among 5-year-olds—who aren’t required to mask—and 6 year olds, who are.

    “Masking is a psychological stressor for children and disrupts learning. Covering the lower half of the face of both teacher and pupil reduces the ability to communicate,” wrote Neeraj Sood, director of the Covid Initiative at USC, and Jay Bhattacharya, professor of medicine at Stanford. “Positive emotions such as laughing and smiling become less recognizable, and negative emotions get amplified. Bonding between teachers and students takes a hit.”

    “Most of the masks worn by most kids for most of the pandemic have likely done nothing to change the velocity or trajectory of the virus,” writes University of California associate professor of epidemiology and biostatistics Vinay Prasad. “The loss to children remains difficult to capture in hard data, but will likely become clear in the years to come.”

    Public health erred on the side of giving masked people a false sense of security. As I wrote in August, “Covid-19 particles are astoundingly small. Hard as it is to imagine, the imperceptible gaps in surgical masks can be 1,000 times the size of a viral particle. Gaps in cloth masks are well larger.” That’s to say nothing of the respirated air that simply goes around the mask’s edges.

    Earlier in the pandemic, questioning cloth masks triggered outrage and swift social media censorship. Now, even mandate-happy CNN medical analyst Leanna Wen has declared they’re “little more than facial decorations.” Mask skepticism is sprouting elsewhere in mainstream media; the Washington Post and Bloomberg even published an essay titled “Mask Mandates Didn’t Make Much of a Difference Anyway.”

    Chart via Ian Miller at Unmasked

    When public health officials exaggerated the power of masks, they did more than promote pointless discomfort and a dystopian way of life. “Naively fooled to think that masks would protect them, some older high-risk people did not socially distance properly, and some died from Covid-19 because of it,” said epidemiologist, biostatistician and former Harvard Medical School professor Martin Kulldorff.

    Public health erred on the side of killing small businesses. Thanks in large part to government’s targeting of so-called “non-essential businesses,” the first year of the pandemic brought an additional 200,000 business closures over prior levels.

    Public health erred on the side of harming women’s careers. Women comprise a greater proportion of the sectors hid hardest by lockdowns, and the closing of schools and child care centers prompted many more women than men to put their careers on hold.

    Public health erred on the side of inflation. To offset the massive economic destruction inflicted by public health shutdowns, the federal government plunged into an astounding spending spree, handing out cash to individuals, businesses and city and state governments.

    It was money the government didn’t have, so the Federal Reserve essentially created it out of thin air. Pushing all that new fiat money into circulation debases the currency, fueling today’s surging price inflation—which is a stealth tax with no maximum rate, which hits poor people hardest.

    Note: Lockdowns and other mandates weren’t the exclusive driver of many of the various harms I’ve described; general fear of the virus also contributed to some of them. However, it should also be noted that public health officials—and media that overwhelmingly emphasized negative stories—whipped up a level of fear that led people to overstate the level of danger actually posed by the virus.

    There’s one more way in which characterizing lockdowns and other mandates as “erring on the side of caution” plays a psychological trick: Since the phrase is embedded with the notion of good intentions, it conditions citizens to be forgiving of the bureaucrats and politicians who imposed them.

    Note, however, that in most everyday usage of “erring on the side of caution,” the choice to “err” is made voluntarily by individuals who bear the consequences of their own decisions—or by others, like an airplane pilot or a surgeon, to whom we’ve voluntarily and unmistakably granted control of our well-being.

    The grim impacts of lockdowns and other mandates, however, were coercively imposed on society, to say nothing of the fact that so many of the edicts represented gross usurpations of power and violations of human rights.

    On top of all that, the edicts were reinforced by Orwellian censorship and ostracism leveled at those who dared raise questions that have now proven valid.

    So make no mistake: Overreaching public health officials and politicians—and the journalists-in-name-only who served as their mindless, unquestioning megaphones—have fully earned our withering condemnation. Indeed, holding them accountable is essential to sparing ourselves and future generations from repeating this dystopian chapter of human history.

    * * *

    Stark Realities undermines official narratives, demolishes conventional wisdom and exposes fundamental myths across the political spectrum. Read more and subscribe at starkrealities.substack.com

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 19:00

  • Zelensky Urges Biden To Impose No-Fly Zone Over Ukraine; Turkey Shuts Straits To All Warships
    Zelensky Urges Biden To Impose No-Fly Zone Over Ukraine; Turkey Shuts Straits To All Warships

    Update(1845ET): Ukraine’s President Zelensky has urged the West to consider imposing a no-fly zone against Russian aircraft. Zelensky on Monday appealed directly to Joe Biden to consider a no-fly zone for “significant parts” of Ukraine. The Ukrainian leader issued the statement in an exclusive Axios report. He told Axios that there’s a chance for Ukraine’s armed forces to “beat the aggressor” if the Western allies are willing to “do their part.”

    He also suggested that this would result in less total bloodshed, and spare civilians: “If the West does this, Ukraine will defeat the aggressor with much less blood,” Zelensky conveyed through an advisor. 

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    However, not only did Biden rule out sending American troops to Ukraine in a Monday statement, but press secretary Jen Psaki also stressed that a no-fly zone is also ruled out, given that either scenario would bring Washington into direct war with Russia, and likely lead to WW3. 

    “Here’s what’s important for everybody to know about a no-fly zone: What that would require is implementation by the U.S. military. It would essentially mean the U.S. military would be shooting down Russian planes,” Psaki told MSNBC on Monday.

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    Zelensky had described additionally of current measures, “The sanctions are heading in the right direction. In addition to disconnecting the Russian Central Bank from SWIFT and providing more Stingers and anti-tank weapons, we need the West to impose a no-fly zone over significant parts of Ukraine.”

    An additional major development Monday is that Turkey as expected has invoked the Montreux Convention and has now closed the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits to all Russian warship traffic. This means Russian vessels cannot enter the Black Sea from the vicinity of the Mediterranean. But this also applies to all warships at this time…

    “When Turkey is not a belligerent in the conflict, it has the authority to restrict the passage of the warring states’ warships across the straits. If the warship is returning to its base in the Black Sea, the passage is not closed. We adhere to the Montreux rules. All governments, riparian and non-riparian, were warned not to send warships across the straits.”

    Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğluhas since declared that “all countries, that have coast to Black Sea, or not, not to let warships pass through the straits” according to state-run Anadolu. It follows Turkey issuing formal recognition of the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a “war” – which in turn triggers the Montreux Convention.

    He said the following:

    “We warned all countries, that have a coast on the Black Sea or not, not to let warships go through the straits,” Çavuşoğlu told reporters after a Cabinet meeting in Ankara, Anadolu reported.

    “To date, there has been no request for passage through the straits [since the war started],” he clarified.

    * * *

    Update(1449ET): Already Putin has previously been on record as saying Western actions such as sanctioning a sitting head of state or targeting the central bank would be viewed as an “act of war”. But now another red line has been drawn, following more and more European governments – most notably Germany – ditching their policies of neutrality when it comes to shipping their weapons into foreign conflicts:

    RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS THOSE SUPPLYING LETHAL WEAPONS TO UKRAINE WILL BEAR RESPONSIBILITY SHOULD THESE WEAPONS BE USED DURING RUSSIA’S MILITARY OPERATION – IFAX

    More than likely, US and UK-supplied weapons, particularly anti-tank missile systems as well as possibly Stingers, are already being used by Ukraine forces against Russian tanks and armored vehicles. Unverified footage circulating widely online suggests as much at this early stage.

    But it appears Russia’s military is taking steps – or at least threatening action – against any external supply lines coming from NATO countries in support of Ukrainian forces. This clearly has the potential to quickly spiral into direct military conflict with the US and West…

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    Meanwhile, President Biden has sought to ‘assure’ the US public…

    BIDEN SAYS AMERICANS SHOULD NOT BE WORRIED ABOUT NUCLEAR WAR

    * * *

    Update(1200ET): In what can be called the first positive development coming on day five of this war, the Russian and Ukrainian sides left the multiple-hour long meeting along the Belarus border agreeing to continue another round of talks in “the coming days” – Bloomberg reports citing Interfax.

    “Russian and Ukrainian sides have agreed to continue another round of talks in the coming days, Interfax reports, citing Russian official Vladimir Medinsky.”

    The next round of talks is expected to take place on the Polish-Belarus border. This after Ukraine’s government was reportedly adamant in saying it’s “not ready to surrender or capitulate” to Russia, in a separate statement made to the press, and reported by CNBC. The development also comes after Zelensky signed an application for Ukrainian membership to the European Union.

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    And now with Switzerland closing its airspace to Russian flight traffic, there’s a near total European blockade of airspace outside Russia…

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    * * * 

    Update(11:15am ET): President Putin on Monday signed a decree implementing ‘countermeasures’ as retaliation for EU-wide and US severe sanctions against the Russian economy. Russian residence are effectively barred from transferring foreign currency to their accounts, also including deposits in foreign banks, according to Interfax.

    The decree entitled “On the application of special economic measures against the United States and countries that have joined them,” is now law, according to a Kremlin statement. “Exporters must sell 80 percent of foreign exchange earnings credited from 1 January 2022,” the Kremlin press service stated of the new measure.

    “For residents participating in foreign economic activity to carry out the mandatory sale of foreign currency in the amount of 80 percent of the amount of foreign currency credited starting from 1 January 2022 to their accounts in authorized banks on the basis of foreign trade contracts concluded with non-residents and providing for the transfer of goods to non-residents, the provision of services to non-residents, performance of work for non-residents, transfer to non-residents of the results of intellectual activity, including exclusive rights to them, no later than three working days from the date this decree comes into force,” the decree reads according to a Russian media translation. 

    Kremlin press photo

    Bloomberg details further:

    • The steps, which take effect March 1, also include restrictions on companies buying back their own stock, according to the text of the decree published Monday.
    • The U.S. and its allies have imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s biggest banks, including the central bank, and limits on billionaires and top officials including Putin himself for the invasion of Ukraine.
    • The moves triggered a sharp drop in the ruble and forced the central bank to take emergency steps to stabilize the market.

    Putin said of the new measures and of the Ukraine war more broadly that “a settlement is possible only if Russia’s legitimate security interests are unconditionally taken into account.”

    According to media statements: “At the same time, it was noted that the Russian side is open to negotiations with Ukraine and expects that they will lead to the desired results.” The security demands include the objectives recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and the “demilitarization” and “de-Nazification” of Ukraine. And on Monday, there were these further significant developments:

    • U.S. MONITORING RUSSIAN NUCLEAR FORCES AS CLOSELY AS POSSIBLE, HAVEN’T SEEN ANY SPECIFIC MUSCLE MOVEMENTS AS RESULT OF PUTIN’S ALERT ORDER – OFFICIAL SAYS
    • U.S. SAYS “NO REASON TO CHANGE” NUCLEAR ALERT LEVELS AT THIS TIME AFTER PUTIN DIRECTIVE-WHITE HOUSE
    • ZELENSKYY HAS SIGNED AN APPLICATION FOR EU MEMBERSHIP

    * * *

    Update(9:36am ET): Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have reportedly lasted almost 3 hours, according to Pravda Ukraine. At the same time the Kremlin announced its Northern and Pacific fleets along with its strategic bombers are all in a state of ‘maximum alert’ – though it’s unclear as yet precisely what this really means. As for the ceasefire meeting in Belarus, Ukraine issuing the following to international press agencies:

    UKRAINE IS ‘NOT READY TO SURRENDER OR CAPITULATE’ TO RUSSIA, FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS – CNBC 

    “Ukraine demanded an immediate ceasefire and Russian troop withdrawal on Monday, as a delegation arrived for talks with Russia at the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, per Ukrainian presidency statement,” according to a CNN foreign correspondent. The Ukrainian delegation was headed up by Defense Minister Reznikov; however President Zelensky was not present – while the Russian side reportedly included relatively low level officials at the ministerial level. Below: Latest NYT war map…

    At this early point it doesn’t look like Monday’s meeting near the Belarusian border resulted in any breakthroughs, however details are still pending. Meanwhile the below footage provides a glimpse at what the Russian occupation will look like, after Russian forces have reportedly taken two Ukrainian cities, and as fighting continues in the suburbs of Kiev.

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    China has on Monday issued a strong statement urging a cessation to the conflict and for negotiations toward a ceasefire to continue. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a press briefing Monday:

    “We call on all parties to return to the path of diplomatic negotiations and a political settlement as soon as possible. We also suggest undertaking a comprehensive settlement of the Ukraine problem through negotiations and consultations,” he said.

    “We call on all parties concerned to demonstrate calmness and restraint and to avoid further escalation,” he emphasized. This as Russia heightened its nuclear readiness posture once again. While calling it an unnecessary “escalation” – the UK had this to say:

    Vladimir Putin putting Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert is an attempt to distract people from “what’s going wrong in Ukraine”, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has said.

    Mr Wallace said Mr Putin was engaged in a “battle of rhetoric” by trying to “remind the world” he had a deterrent.

    He said Russia was behind schedule on its invasion of Ukraine and Ukrainians were putting up a “very strong fight”.

    Others in Europe agreed it was a “distraction attempt” – as the BBC notes in its headline. And here’s the latest from the Swiss government:

    SWISS DEFENCE MINISTER SAYS WE HAVE CONCLUDED USE OF RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS RELATIVELY UNLIKELY, POPULATION SHOULD NOT BE AFRAID

    * * *

    Update(7:52am ET): “We were ready,” said a Biden administration official of the series of sanctions and punitive measures it’s now hitting Moscow with. The latest in the below breaking news includes extensions of prior US announced actions being taken against Russia:

    • U.S. BANS TRANSACTIONS WITH RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK
    • SENIOR BIDEN ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL SAYS U.S. SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK WERE MONTHS IN THE PLANNING, ‘WE WERE READY’ U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK HAS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO BRING ASSETS TO RUSSIA, OTHER SAFE HAVENS SINCE SATURDAY’S SANCTIONS ANNOUNCEMENT
    • U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS TODAY’S ACTION TO PROHIBIT TRANSACTIONS WITH RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK WILL HINDER RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO ACCESS HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
    • U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS COORDINATED ACTION WILL CAUSE WEAKENING OF RUSSIAN CURRENCY, MAKE FINANCING MORE DIFFICULT
    • U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS ALWAYS SAW RUSSIA’S $630BLN IN RESERVES AS INSURANCE POLICY, ACTION TODAY ‘REMOVES THAT INSURANCE POLICY’
    • U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS ACTIONS BY U.S., ALLIES WILL PREVENT RUSSIA FROM USING ITS DOLLARS, EUROS, POUNDS OR YEN TO DEFEND ITS CURRENCY
    • UKRAINIAN MEDIA: UKRAINIAN NEGOTIATING DELEGATION DEMANDED WITHDRAWAL OF RUSSIAN TROOPS FROM UKRAINE, INCLUDING CRIMEA AND DONBASS

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    And in another major announcement regarding Russian nuclear forces posture, Interfax reveals the following, though it’s unclear precisely what the designation means:

    RUSSIAN NUCLEAR FORCES PLACED ON ENHANCED COMBAT DUTY IN LINE WITH PUTIN ORDER – INTERFAX QUOTES DEFENCE MINISTRY

    * * *

    In the fifth day since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, talks have kicked off between a Ukrainian delegation and Kremlin delegation somewhere inside Belarus at a precise location that’s being kept secret – though it’s somewhere along the border. The Russians have not sent anyone top level from the Foreign Ministry, instead its delegation is reportedly headed by an aide to President Putin and former culture minister named Vladimir Medinsky.

    Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei in welcoming the Ukrainian leadership assured the group they are “completely safe” and that it’s Belarus’ “sacred duty” to ensure it. Initial photos have come out of the meeting, which President Zelensky’s office described as having the ultimate aim of achieving an immediate ceasefire and total withdrawal of Russian troops, however unlikely that remains at this moment.

    Image source: TASS/Reuters

    “Dear friends, the President of Belarus asked me to welcome you and to provide everything for your work, as agreed with President Zelensky and President Putin. You may feel completely safe here. This is our sacred duty,” Belarusian FM Makei introduced. 

    “President Lukashenko sincerely hopes that, during today’s talks, it will be possible to find solutions to all the questions of this crisis. All Belarusians are praying for this. Any proposals, in terms of organizing today’s meeting, will be considered and absolutely fulfilled,” Makei said. “We look forward to the results.”

    Zelensky has described the talks as occurring with “no preconditions” while also noting they were unlikely to produce results. Additionally as Bloomberg describes, “The low profile of the Russian delegation, at deputy ministerial level, further weighed on expectations of any breakthrough.”

    The Ukrainian president said Sunday he “doesn’t really believe” there will be a breakthrough with the Russians, but expressed there could be “a chance, however small, to de-escalate the situation” – according to his words carried in regional media. 

    Ukraine’s delegation arriving to talks by helicopter Monday. Source: BelTA/TASS

    Heavy fighting continued Monday as the talks kicked off, particularly in neighborhoods on the outskirts of Kiev, and in the cities of Kharkiv and Chernihiv.

    “They are fighting against everyone and everything alive, against kindergartens, against residential buildings and ambulances,” Zelenskiy said of the Russians in a Sunday statement, which the Kremlin rejected, saying it is only targeting military sites and movements. 

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    And as for weekend reports that Kiev had been surrounded, which was widely reported due to statements attributed to the mayor of the capital city, Zelensky’s office issued the following statement:  “Russians can only dream about it. Kyiv is completely controlled by the Ukrainian forces, arrivals to Kyiv are available. Yes, in some suburbs the confrontation continues, there were heavy battles. But we will not give up the capital.”

    Meanwhile on Monday the Vatican has offered “to facilitate” dialogue between Moscow and Kiev toward ending the war, with Vaitcan Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin saying “there is still and always room for negotiation. It is never too late.” 

    And in another breaking development, the United States as suspended the operations of its embassy in Minsk, Belarus – which also comes after this weekend the State Department began telling US nationals inside Russia to begin planning their departure given widespread European airspace closures around Russia.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 18:45

  • US Expels 12 Russian "Intelligence Operatives" From UN Mission In New York
    US Expels 12 Russian “Intelligence Operatives” From UN Mission In New York

    The US has announced Monday afternoon that it is moving to expel a dozen Russians with diplomatic credentials from US soil. The State Department and US agencies have identified the twelve as “intelligence operatives” who worked out of the Russian Mission to the United Nations in New York.

    A statement by the US Mission to the United Nations said “twelve intelligence operatives from the Russian Mission who have abused their privileges of residency in the United States by engaging in espionage activities that are adverse to our national security.”

    UN Headquarters in NYC, shutterstock

    The statement didn’t spell out those alleged espionage activities or name any evidence of their spying activities. 

    While the statement says “the action has been in development for several months” – it’s hard not to see this as also likely related to a crackdown on suspicious Russian diplomatic personnel connected to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s ambassador the UN Vassily Nebenzia responded by slamming the explanation as “not satisfactory.” 

    “I’ve just received information that the US authorities have undertaken another hostile action against the Russian Mission to the United Nations grossly violating their commitments on the host country agreement that they undertook,” Nebenzia said to the press. “They just visited the Russian Mission and gave us a note prescribing us to do what they demand.”

    The move comes after multiple months of tit-for-tat expulsions between the Russian and US sides, with dozens of Russian diplomats sent home from the embassy in Washington D.C. in January, which had first been announced last November. In the most recent incidents, the State Department has cited that it won’t renew their visas. 

    Countries across the globe, including the United States, often send intelligence officers to the foreign country in which they are embedded under cover of diplomatic credentials.

    With the United States for example, intel officers often work out of the embassy or consulates as “official” State Department personnel, while in reality working for US intelligence, in a practice which has become so normative as to be an ‘open secret’. US adversaries like Russia or China also regularly do the same.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 18:40

  • Many Viral Ukraine War Videos Flooding Social Media Are Fake
    Many Viral Ukraine War Videos Flooding Social Media Are Fake

    Authored by Eric Garris via AntiWar.com, 

    Noted YouTube “scambuster” Kitboga, who has 2.2 million subscribers, has posted the video below showing many examples of viral TikTok videos purporting to be scenes of war in Ukraine.

    These videos are mostly clips from video games or from other wars. Many of these posts are being used to raise money for fake charities. Kit explains the various scams that are being used to raise money on TikTok, YouTube, and other platforms.

    There are actual videos of the war, but everyone needs to be skeptical and ask for sources.

    Here are some other articles about fake or misleading Ukraine war videos:

    A number of weekend media articles began exposing some viral videos which were fake, many racking up tens of thousands of shares on Facebook. 

    According to one such report: “In fact, Gizmodo has found at least ten viral photos and videos currently being spread on social media that are completely fake.”

    “In some cases, the videos and photos are years old. In others, the images are clearly not from Ukraine. There are even two examples of videos on Twitter today that are actually from war-themed video games…” 

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    “Nobody knows how long this invasion will last. But however long that may be, you can bet on one thing: There will be plenty more fake photos and videos passed around online before this conflict is over,” Gizmodo concludes in its own review of some of the fake videos.

    [ZH: Paul Joseph Watson exposes a few more farcical propaganda pumps in the following brief clip…]

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 18:20

  • Mayor Adams Announces End Of NYC's Controversial Vaccine Passport Rule
    Mayor Adams Announces End Of NYC’s Controversial Vaccine Passport Rule

    At long last, New Yorkers and tourists visiting the Big Apple will soon be able to enter stores, restaurants, bars and other venues without needing to show proof of vaccination status.

    That’s right: Mayor Eric Adams is finally lifting his city’s requirement for patrons to be vaccinated, one of the most restrictive such laws in the country. It was first implemented by his predecessor, Bill de Blasio, last year. However, he clarified Monday that there are no plans to remove requirements that workers be vaccinated.

    Mayor Adams clarified that the requirement would be lifted on March 7 so long as COVID cases continue to trend downward.

    NYC’s indoor mask requirement for all public schools will be lifted on the same day (again, provided no unexpected spikes in infections arise).

    Adams noted that more than a million students would return to public schools Monday after their February break. According to the mayor, if students can intermix this week without creating any “unforeseen spikes” in infections, then that would essentially confirm that the mask mandates are no longer necessary.

    “New York City’s numbers continue to go down day after day, so, as long as COVID indicators show a low level of risk and we see no surprises this week, on Monday, March 7 we will also lift Key2NYC requirements,” Adams announced. “This will give business owners the time to adapt and will allow us to ensure we are making the best public health decisions for the people of New York.”

    Circling back the vaccine passport rule, which was first adopted in the late summer of 2021, it’s worth noting that it hasn’t always been enforced. But it does still technically apply to restaurants, bars, nightclubs, coffee shops, fast food eateries, indoor fitness locations, movie theaters, music and concert venues, museums, sports arenas and stadiums, theaters and billiard halls, among other places.

    Adams, who is seen as far more business-friendly than his predecessor, Mayor de Blasio, had hinted that he was eagerly awaiting the end of the vaccine passport rule during an economic development press briefing on Wednesday. Adams said at the time that he meets daily with health experts, who have provided structure and benchmarks the city should meet before it returns to pre-pandemic normalcy.

    “We can’t close down again, and I’m not going to do something at my anticipation to get back that’s going to jeopardize closing down the city again,” Adams said. “Our economy can’t handle it. We don’t have another $11 billion to put back in the economy. We must do it the smart way.”

    Adams decision follows a move by Gov. Kathy Hochul to ditch the Empire State’s mask mandate (for everywhere but schools), although Hochul said over the weekend that the statewide mandate for schools would be ending on Wednesday.

    The city fired more than 1,400 municipal workers over their refusal to abide by the vaccine mandate, which was extremely controversial in parts of the city like South Brooklyn and Staten Island.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/28/2022 – 18:00

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