Dec 20

Today’s News 20th December 2022

  • Has American Democracy Been A Hallucination For Nearly 60 Years?
    Has American Democracy Been A Hallucination For Nearly 60 Years?

    Authored by Roger L. Simon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Call it a democracy, call it a democratic republic, call it a constitutional republic, call it anything you want – it doesn’t really matter what America is if there is truth to what Tucker Carlson was reporting the other night via a source who had “direct knowledge” of still-hidden documents concerning the Kennedy assassination, implicating the CIA.

    If indeed the CIA was in any way involved in the assassination of JFK on Nov. 22, 1963, then anything that has happened in the public sphere in our country since that day has basically been a hallucination created by an intelligence agency far deeper than most of us—certainly me, since I was never much given to conspiracy theories—ever imagined.

    The affairs of the day—RNC chief Ronna McDaniel revealed to be a profligate spender on her own luxury travel, not on Republican candidates; Donald Trump releasing self-aggrandizing NFT pseudo-art as a fundraiser (rest in peace, Johannes Vermeer); even Elon Musk’s exposure of the multiple mendacious censoring creeps behind Twitter, although that has an eerie similarity—pale by comparison to CIA involvement and, therefore, massive coverup for decades in the JFK assassination.

    President-elect John F. Kennedy and Jacqueline Kennedy pose at Georgetown University Hospital in Washington with their son, John F. Kennedy Jr., following a baptism for the infant on Dec. 8, 1960. (AP Photo)

    That former CIA director Mike Pompeo declined to appear on Carlson’s show to discuss this is not insignificant. We all know about 51 intelligence officials—John Brennan and others who fallaciously claimed two years ago the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation. They have to have known otherwise. Now this?

    Why are 3 percent of the Warren Commission documents on the assassination still being hidden after those nearly 60 years with all the major players dead, if not to hide something of serious importance from the American public?

    It’s time to reconsider Oliver Stone’s “JFK” that, though I admired Oliver’s filmmaking, I originally thought to be a crackpot.

    The Kennedy assassination has special ramifications for me because it occurred on my 20th birthday. I was a Dartmouth student at the time and drove down to spend the weekend with my girlfriend at Skidmore (Saratoga Springs, New York) and sat in a motel room stunned and mesmerized watching Jack Ruby shoot Lee Harvey Oswald, live on the black and white television.

    I cannot remember seeing anything more inexplicable in my life. How could this have been allowed to happen only hours after the assassination? In retrospect, it becomes even more incredible. In a certain sense, I now feel that most of my adult life, what I have thought was real, has been erased.

    Although most of us of a “certain age” have our own personal stories, that’s the relatively minor part. Historically, for our country at large, the Kennedy assassination was a disaster. It led to the ascendance of Lyndon Johnson and his “Great Society” social programs.

    What actually occurred because of these programs was the not-so-gradual destruction of the black family, the women having been financially induced via handouts to marry the state instead of the men who normally would have been their husbands. The statistics on the decline of the black family and the rise of single-parent households are well known, as are the results that the black community and the rest of us live through on a daily basis. What becomes of a man, black or white, who no longer has the responsibility of being a father? LBJ was in many ways the godfather of Black Lives Matter, not to mention the hugely sad violence in the streets of our biggest cities, most notably Chicago.

    If all this is true, the question becomes how do we get out of this hallucination that is more powerful than, though not unrelated to, the mass formation psychosis described by the Belgian academic Mathias Desmet.

    To begin with, we need the full information, every document, and we need it now. Without the public being able to review that last 3 percent we can go no further. We should be calling for that—loudly.

    The Everly Brothers perhaps put it best, although in another context.

    “Wake up, little Susie, wake up
    We’ve both been sound asleep
    Wake up little Susie and weep
    The movie’s over, it’s four o’clock
    And we’re in trouble deep.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 23:40

  • How Much Prize Money Do World Cup Champions Win?
    How Much Prize Money Do World Cup Champions Win?

    Argentina has won the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 and is taking home the top prize of $42 million in earnings, marking a new record for the greatest sum of money FIFA has ever awarded to a team.

    In second place comes France, who lost in a narrow head-to-head ending in penalties, and is taking home $30 million.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, the tournament’s prize earnings have skyrocketed over the past forty years.

    Infographic: How Much Prize Money Do World Cup Champions Win? | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Where the top winnings were just $2.2 million for the ‘82 champions in Spain, the sum climbed fairly steadily to $8 million in Japan/South Korea in 2002, before more than doubling to $20 million for the 2006 tournament held in Germany. Pay packets have continued to grow since that date, with 2022 offering up $4 million more than the Russia 2018 World Cup.

    The championship does not only offer money to the top two teams, however.

    According to data collated by Sporting News, FIFA allocated a total of $440 million in prize money for this year’s World Cup. Third place was awarded $27 million, followed by $25 million for fourth place, $17 million for the quarterfinals, $13 million for the round of 16 and finally $9 million for participation in the group stages.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 23:20

  • 'Walk Away' Founder Brandon Straka Sues MSNBC Hosts For Defamation Over False Statements
    ‘Walk Away’ Founder Brandon Straka Sues MSNBC Hosts For Defamation Over False Statements

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Two MSNBC hosts have been sued for making false statements about a man who pleaded guilty and was sentenced for taking part in the events of Jan. 6, 2021.

    Brandon Straka, founder of the #WalkAway Campaign, speaks at the CPAC convention in National Harbor, Md., on Feb. 28, 2020. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

    Chris Hayes and Ari Melber, the hosts, committed defamation when they made the statements on-air, Brandon Straka says in the new complaint.

    Straka, a Democrat-turned-Republican, pleaded guilty to disorderly conduct. In exchange, a slew of other charges were dropped, including impeding a law enforcement officer during a civil disorder.

    Hayes, on his MSNBC show on Dec. 17, 2021, claimed that many people associated with former President Donald Trump “appear to have been smart enough not to commit the Federal crime of storming the Capitol live on television.”

    “Brandon Straka is the exception,” Hayes said.

    Hayes also quoted Straka as saying during the tumult at the Capitol, “Take it away from him. Take the shield!” And Hayes also claimed that Straka had broken into the Capitol.

    The statements are false because Straka did not commit the federal crime of storming the Capitol, did not utter the supposed quotation, and never entered the Capitol building, the new defamation complaint states.

    The evidence to support the case includes a statement of offense from an FBI agent, which says clearly states that Straka was on Capitol grounds but did not enter the Capitol. The plea agreement also says Straka was on Capitol grounds but does not say he went inside the building.

    “Comparing the Hayes Statements to the truth, it is beyond peradventure that the Statements are materially false,” Straka’s complaint states.

    The documents do say that Straka uttered “take it, take it,” but not the full quote attributed to him by Hayes.

    Melber, meanwhile, talked about Straka during a segment of “The Beat with Ari Melber” on Oct. 19.

    Melber, during an interview, with Straka’s image on screen, said that Straka “was convicted in connection with the January 6 insurrection” and “was found to have been trying to help attack police officers.”

    According to the plea agreement, Straka recorded people trying to take a U.S. Capitol Police officer’s shield but did not participate in the action. The agreement was for a guilty plea for a single charge, disorderly conduct on the Capitol grounds.

    Melber also claimed: “His name is Brandon Straka. He confessed. He confessed to being guilty. He was found to [have been] helping attack police.”

    “The Melber Statements are materially false because Straka did not confess and was not found by any Court to have helped attack police officers or to have attempted an attack on any police officer,” the new complaint states. “Indeed, the public record, reviewed by MSNBC and Melber prior to publication, demonstrates beyond cavil that Straka did not engage in any acts of violence or encourage anyone to commit violence on January 6, 2021. Rather, he was filming events outside the east side of the Capitol in a journalistic capacity.”

    Damages

    The false statements caused damages to Straka, his lawyers said, referencing the recent verdicts against InfoWars founder Alex Jones.

    “As was true in the Alex Jones cases MSNBC, Hayes and Melber’s actions caused Straka to be inundated with threats and subject to intense harassment and hate messages,” they said. “Invitations to appear on television and podcasts and to participate in events went cold due to the toxicity of Defendants’ false Statements. Straka suffered insult, embarrassment, humiliation, mental anguish, injury to his reputation, loss of income and career damage.”

    Melber’s statements were made during an interview with Matt Schlapp, the chair of the Conservative Political Action Conference, an annual event where Straka has spoken a number of times. Melber “intentionally poisoned the opinion of an important and powerful colleague of Straka,” the complaint states, adding later that “MSNBC and Melber deliberately attempted to end Brandon’s career and destroy Brandon’s relationships with high-profile political figures.”

    The statements were also made to millions of followers on Twitter, and to more people on YouTube, the complaint notes.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 23:00

  • BoJ Sparks Market Chaos With Huge 'Yield Curve Control' Adjustment
    BoJ Sparks Market Chaos With Huge ‘Yield Curve Control’ Adjustment

    The Bank of Japan shocked markets tonight.

    After leaving policy rates unchanged, the ‘easiest’ bank in the world decided to dramatically modify its so-called Yield Curve Control framework and increase the quantity of government bonds it will buy each month (while the rest of the world is doing the opposite).

    The increase in range is huge (from -0.5% to +0.5% in yields). Thus, realistically this is a tightening policy move allowing long-rates to rise from 25bps (the prior YCC limit) to 50bps (the current YCC limit)…

    The YCC adjustment is being reported as a mechanism to encourage better functioning in the bond market (where barely a bond changes hands nowadays). The BOJ says it made the change as:

    “the functioning of bond markets has deteriorated, particularly in terms of relative relationships among interest rates of bonds with different maturities and arbitrage relationships between spot and future markets… If these market conditions persists, this could have a negative impact on financial conditions.”

    The BoJ also increased its bond purchases to JPY9 trillion per month for January through March.

    Bear in mind that the share of Japanese government bonds held by the Bank of Japan has topped 50% on a market value basis for the first time, new data showed Monday.

    As one might expect, Cash JGBs didn’t budge on the news.

    Interestingly, despite the ‘easing’ implied by the JGB buying increase, the JPY strengthened against the dollar (because with a wider/higher band for the 10Y yield, theoretically the BoJ will have to buy fewer bonds to keep it within their limit). The JPY is now at its strongest since August.

    Until, of course the next depressionary collapse.

    So the bottom line is that The BoJ will allow 10Y to rise to 0.50% from 0.25% but in order to make the transition as painless as possible, it will increase bond purchases to Y9 Trillion from Y7.3 Trillion per month.

    This will basically remove the YCC kink in the JGB yield curve…

    And sure enough, 10Y JGB yields have instantly exploded higher to their highest since 2015…

    JGB Futures trading has been halted on the Osaka Exchange.

    Japanese bank stocks are soaring on the increased outlook for their NIMs…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Capital Economics offers some clarifications as traders comes to terms with WTF Kuroda just did…

    There was nothing in the statement that would suggest that this decision heralds a wholesale tightening of monetary policy.

    For one thing, the bank’s assessment of current economic conditions as well as its outlook over coming quarters was little changed from the October meeting.

    If anything, the downgrade to the bank’s view on external demand suggests that it is getting increasingly worried about the strength of the recovery.

    Most importantly, the bank reiterated that it expects short-term and long-term policy rates to remain at their present or lower levels.

    Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank, warned about taking these initial kneejerk moves as indicative of anything:

    “FX markets seem to want to take it as BOJ’s pivot, which I do not think so.” 

    The BoJ’s dramatic adjustment to its yield-curve control framework could reflect policymakers’ preference for a stronger yen, according to National Australia Bank.

    “The widening of the band has been framed as a move to improve market functionality, but implicitly one could argue the bank now has a preference for a stronger yen (or at a minimum a distaste for further yen weakness),” Rodrigo Catril, the bank’s Sydney-based strategist says.

    “On face value the YCC announcement reinforces the view that the BOJ willingness to wait for the right type of inflation does have limits.”

    This action by The BoJ has sparked chaos in other markets with US Treasury yields spiking…

    As Bloomberg’s Yuki Masujima said:

    “The implications go far beyond Japan – with the BOJ – the last major holdout in a global monetary tightening shift (with the exception of China) — now letting the benchmark yield trade higher than before, the shock will echo across global financial markets.”

    Bitcoin has spiked (likely on the rise in BOJ QE – which is actually offset by the BOJ ‘allowing’ rates to rise, thus tighten)…

    Gold jumped back above $1800…

    And US equity markets are tumbling…

    …and just as liquidity evaporates for the Xmas break across global markets.

    The governor had repeatedly stuck to a resolutely dovish stance by stressing the need for stimulus until stronger wage growth takes place, ruling out the possibility the BOJ will take action against the yen’s slump.

    He had also characterized any widening of the movement band around the yield target as equivalent to a rate hike, a description that led most economists to believe such a move was still some time away.

    Or maybe that was Kuroda’s cunning plan after all – offer no hint at all of this and then drop it during one of the most illiquid times of day during one of the most illiquid weeks of the year, so the effect is immediate – like ripping off a band-aid.

    Presumably, the smart chaps in the BOJ believe they can allow the yield to jump and traders will happily let it rest there at 50bps. Of course that won’t happen and Kuroda’s successor will be forced to buy ever increasing quantities of JGBs to maintain the 50bps yield upper band.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 22:23

  • Federal Judge To Block "Tyrannical" California Gun Law Provision
    Federal Judge To Block “Tyrannical” California Gun Law Provision

    Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

    A federal judge said he will block a “tyrannical” provision in an incoming California gun law because it would have the “chilling effect” of discouraging people from challenging the statute in court.

    Judge Roger Benitez said in a San Diego courtroom on Dec. 16 that he would soon issue an injunction halting part of a state law scheduled to take effect on Jan. 1, according to The Associated Press. The offending provision would require those who fight the state’s gun laws to pay the government’s legal fees should they lose in court and was heavily promoted by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat with presidential ambitions.

    The case, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of California, is Miller v. Bonta, court file 22-cv-1446. The lawsuit is one of many now pending in courts across the country after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled this past June that individuals have a constitutional right to carry firearms in public for self-defense.

    The so-called loser-pays requirement would produce a “chilling effect” that would hinder state residents from suing to vindicate their legal rights because they would fear having to pay potentially huge lawyers’ tabs, Benitez said, agreeing with Second Amendment advocates.

    “I can’t think of anything more tyrannical,” said Benitez, who was appointed by former President George W. Bush.

    Benitez previously ruled against California laws targeting gun ownership. His defense of the Second Amendment has earned him the nickname “St. Benitez” among gun rights activists.

    In June 2021, the judge found that California’s Assault Weapons Control Act of 1989, which prohibited so-called assault weapons such as the popular AR-15 rifle in the state, ran afoul of the Second Amendment. Weeks later the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit put his ruling on hold. And in March 2019, Benitez found that the state’s ban on large-capacity magazines included in Proposition 63 was unconstitutional.

    In the case at hand, the judge said he would not prevent the rest of the statute from coming into force, leaving intact provisions that prohibit the sale of certain so-called assault weapons and a ban on guns lacking serial numbers.

    The California gun law relies on a novel enforcement mechanism inspired by a Texas law enacted last year that crowdsourced abortion enforcement, giving individuals the right to sue over alleged violations of the state’s fetal-heartbeat abortion law. The law allows, for example, for someone who helped a woman obtain an unlawful abortion by driving her to a clinic to be sued.

    Newsom argues the Texas abortion law is unconstitutional but says if the U.S. Supreme Court upholds it, then his state will rely on the same enforcement mechanism to target Second Amendment protections.

    The U.S. Supreme Court refused a request to block the Texas law and on Dec. 10, 2021, issued a complex procedural ruling in Whole Woman’s Health v. Jackson, remanding the case to a lower court. Then in June of this year, the high court overturned Roe v. Wade, the 1973 precedent that held abortion was a constitutional right, leading to a flurry of activity in state legislatures and legal challenges to abortion laws in courts across the nation.

    In court on Dec. 16, Benitez chided lawyers for the state of California who said the state does not intend to enforce the legal fees rules unless the Texas law survives legal scrutiny.

    “We’re not in a kindergarten sandbox. It’s not about, ‘Mommy he did this to me so I should be able to do this to him,’” Benitez reportedly said.

    The Epoch Times reached out repeatedly to both sides for comment over the weekend.

    Bradley Benbrook and Stephen Duvernay, attorneys for the California gun law challengers, and lawyers for the state, Elizabeth K. Watson and Thomas A. Willis, did not reply as of press time. The California Gun Rights Foundation, which is fighting the law, also did not reply to a request for comment.

    But lawyer Joshua Dale, who represents a San Diego area gun club that is involved in the lawsuit, told Benitez the law would put undue pressure on would-be litigants.

    “I’m terrified of this law,” Dale said in court, according to the AP.

    “It would be absolutely devastating to pay the state’s attorney fees. I’ve got kids. I’ve got a mortgage. I could never pay $50,000 or $100,000 without emptying my 401(k) account.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 22:20

  • THE TWITTER FILES: How FBI Primed Execs With "Russian Disinformation" Disinformation Ahead Of Hunter Biden Bombshell
    THE TWITTER FILES: How FBI Primed Execs With “Russian Disinformation” Disinformation Ahead Of Hunter Biden Bombshell

    In the latest episode of ‘THE TWITTER FILES,’ journalist Michael Shellenberger reveals “How the FBI & intelligence community discredited factual information about Hunter Biden’s foreign business dealings both after and *before* The New York Post revealed the contents of his laptop on October 14, 2020.”

    Continued…

    The story begins in December 2019 when a Delaware computer store owner named John Paul (J.P.) Mac Isaac contacts the FBI about a laptop that Hunter Biden had left with him

    On Dec 9, 2019, the FBI issues a subpoena for, and takes, Hunter Biden’s laptop.

    https://nypost.com/2020/10/14/email-reveals-how-hunter-biden-introduced-ukrainian-biz-man-to-dad/

    By Aug 2020, Mac Isaac still had not heard back from the FBI, even though he had discovered evidence of criminal activity. And so he emails Rudy Giuliani, who was under FBI surveillance at the time. In early Oct, Giuliani gives it to @nypost

    Smoking-gun email reveals how Hunter Biden introduced Ukrainian businessman to VP dad

    Shortly before 7 pm ET on October 13, Hunter Biden’s lawyer, George Mesires, emails JP Mac Isaac.

    Hunter and Mesires had just learned from the New York Post that its story about the laptop would be published the next day.

    7. At 9:22 pm ET (6:22 PT), FBI Special Agent Elvis Chan sends 10 documents to Twitter’s then-Head of Site Integrity, Yoel Roth, through Teleporter, a one-way communications channel from the FBI to Twitter.

    8. The next day, October 14, 2020, The New York Post runs its explosive story revealing the business dealings of President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter. Every single fact in it was accurate.

    thread#showTweet” data-controller=”thread” data-screenname=”ShellenbergerMD” data-tweet=”1604876064450260994″ dir=”auto” id=”tweet_9″>9. And yet, within hours, Twitter and other social media companies censor the NY Post article, preventing it from spreading and, more importantly, undermining its credibility in the minds of many Americans.

    Why is that? What, exactly, happened?

    thread#showTweet” data-controller=”thread” data-screenname=”ShellenbergerMD” data-tweet=”1604876064450260994″ dir=”auto”> 
    thread#showTweet” data-controller=”thread” data-screenname=”ShellenbergerMD” data-tweet=”1604877235579912192″ dir=”auto” id=”tweet_10″>10. On Dec 2, @mtaibbi described the debate inside Twitter over its decision to censor a wholly accurate article.

    Since then, we have discovered new info that points to an organized effort by the intel community to influence Twitter & other platforms

    15. Indeed, Twitter executives *repeatedly* reported very little Russian activity. E.g., on Sept 24, 2020, Twitter told FBI it had removed 345 “largely inactive” accounts “linked to previous coordinated Russian hacking attempts.” They “had little reach & low follower accounts.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And some thoughts from the peanut gallery:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 22:11

  • Spike In Fed Discount Window Usage Hints At Looming Bank Crisis
    Spike In Fed Discount Window Usage Hints At Looming Bank Crisis

    Six months after the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening started, the Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk by just over $400 billion, less than 10% of its massive expansion in the post-covid era when it nearly doubled in just days $4 trillion to $7 trillion, and then grew another $2 trillion over the next year.

    Digging a bit deeper into the balance sheet composition, we find that high-powered money-equivalents, i.e., reserves, are just over $3.1 trillion, while the far more inert reverse repos (which are a byproduct of extremely excessive liquidity creation and/or counterparty and risk avoidance) are a more modest $2.13 trillion…

    … with reserves declining by $1 trillion in the past year, as reverse repos actually increased by half that number.

    And while one can debate the nuances of an $8.5 trillion Fed balance sheet, or the reserve/reverse ratio relationship until one is blue in the face, one thing is certain: now that the world has been in an “ample reserve” framework since the launch of QE1, there are certain things that are not supposed to happen: one of them is the use of the Fed’s emergency USD swap line. If, however, such an instrument is used, as was the case in mid-October, we can immediately deduce that some bank is suffering a crushing USD-funding squeeze (one whose risk is greater than the risk of being slapped with the stigma of using a FX swap). That’s precisely what happened with Swiss bank giant Credit Suisse, which we subsequently learned was being crushed by an $88 billion bank run, and only the secret backdoor bailout of the SNB and the Fed kept it solvent (preventing a far greater financial crisis).

    Another instrument that should never be used in an ample-reserve world, is the Fed’s Discount Window: this “archaic” secured rescue loan arrangement, one in which banks obtain emergency liquidity from the Fed in exchange for loans, is a legacy of the pre-Lehman era, when its mere usage was enough to spark a terminal bank run for any recipient bank. One can argue that the launch of QE was specifically designed to reduce and/or eliminate the use of the discount window by US banks (after all, the post-2009 tidal wave of Fed-created reserves effectively assures that every US financial institution is swimming in money). That, together with the famous “discount window stigma” effect when the mere speculation one is using emergency loans from the Fed was enough to spark a bank run, is why there were zero discount window borrowings until March 2020 when the entire financial system almost collapse again, yet when a relatively modest $50BN in discount window borrowings forced the Fed to unleash multiple daily multi-trillion repo operations, and hundreds of billions in daily and weekly liquidity injections in the form of QE. Yes, the discount window usage in 2020 quickly faded away but not before the Fed’s balance sheet doubled again, from $4 trillion to $8 trillion.

    The problem is that if one fast forwards to today, the discount window is again being used aggressively, and in the last week was just over $6.2 billion, after peaking at $9.5 billion, two weeks ago, the most since June 2020.

    The spike in Discount Window usage has even stumped JPMorgan whose rates strategist Teresa Ho wrote last Friday (her full must-read thoughts available to pro subs) echoed our thoughts above on the “Ample reserve” framework, noting that “there are still over $3tn of reserves and over $2tn of cash at the Fed’s ON RRP, so in no way does this suggest there are systemic liquidity concerns. Indeed, that wholesale funding rates have remained well-behaved even heading into the final weeks of the year suggests as such”, and yet “it is surprising that in spite of the available amount liquidity in the system, usage at the discount window still increased. Borrowing at the discount window is often seen as a last resort for banks in terms of sourcing funding, and hence there is an implicit stigma associated with it. Whether that stigma is justified or not is an open question.”

    Some more details from JPM:

    This year’s uptick in the discount window is associated with primary credit—available to banks that are in “generally sound financial condition,” with no restrictions on the use of funds borrowed under primary credit according to the Fed. The loan must be collateralized with eligible securities (generally investment grade or AAA for securitized securities) and/or loans (generally performing, to domestic entities only). In March 2020, to encourage the use of the discount window, the Fed narrowed the spread of the primary credit rate relative to the general level of overnight rates and extended the line of credit up to 90 days, prepayable and renewable by the borrower on a daily basis. Since then, the primary credit rate has been set at the upper bound of the fed funds target range.

    So what’s behind the spike in discount window borrowings? According to JPM, there are several theories.

    The first revolves around increases in funding pressures among small banks as QT continues in the background. To that end, it’s possible that, regardless of stigma, to raise liquidity, some small banks are finding rates at the window economically more attractive than either accessing the fed funds market or borrowing from FHLB, particularly if they are able to borrow term at the discount window. Indeed, the primary credit rate was set at 4.0% (pre-FOMC), which was 17bp above EFFR but 30-70bp below where they can borrow in 1m and 3m FHLB advances. Furthermore, JPM notes that the timing of the increase appears to have been somewhat correlated to the crypto market, particularly in November after news of the FTX fallout emerged.

    There is a second plausible theory: this year’s aggressive Fed tightening has generated substantial losses on banks’ securities portfolios. As reflected in AOCI, where changes in the market value of bonds in AFS portfolios are captured, US banks have cumulatively lost ~$770bn YTD (Exhibit 5). These losses, while unrealized, have significantly reduced banks’ equity, and in some cases reduced to a level such that tangible common equity has fallen into negative territory. This is the case particularly among smaller banks. Based on S&P data, JPMorgan found that ~30 banks, most of which have total assets of <$1bn, reported negative tangible common equity as of 3Q22, an increase from 11 banks in 2Q22, and 0 banks in 1Q22.

    Why does this matter?  Well, as JPM explains, FHFA currently has a requirement that directs FHLBs to use tangible equity—which includes unrealized gains and losses on AFS securities—in assessing a bank’s credit worthiness for purposes of issuing advances. In the event that a bank does not meet the required tangible capital levels, it could be denied access to the FHLB advance system unless a primary federal regulator says otherwise. (As a side note, the industry is trying get FHFA to amend the assessment framework from using tangible capital to regulatory capital, which would exclude market swings). As a result, to the extent the small banks need liquidity and they cannot turn to the FHLB system for borrowing, they might have to resort to the discount window for sudden, unexpected liquidity needs.

    Translation: there are ~30 banks that are effectively insolvent and are only kept alive thanks to the Fed’s emergency funding. Whether or not these banks fail, and whether their failure leads to a cascade of adverse events, remains to be seen. Unfortunately, absent a chain of defaults which reveals who the crippled banks are, we won’t know for sure the entities behind the discount window spike until the Fed releases transaction data on the discount window two years later.

    Finally, it is also worth noting that the substantial losses on banks’ securities portfolios – thanks to the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes – are creating not only capital issues, but potential liquidity issues as well. As we have discussed previously, with QT occurring in the background, liquidity is being drained from the system, deposits are declining (albeit predominately at large banks so far), funding pressures are gradually rising, and borrowing costs are increasing.

    To the extent sudden liquidity needs arise, there is a question as to whether banks would have to sell their securities to meet their liquidity needs, which in so doing would negatively impact banks’ capital levels. Also, LCR is calculated based on the market value of banks’ HQLA portfolio as a percentage of their net cash outflows under 30 days. All else equal, losses on banks’ securities portfolios would contribute to a deterioration in LCR (i.e., the numerator shrinks). As a result, banks would have to lever up to increase their HQLA to remain compliant with LCR rules. Here, JPM believe this has been one of the reasons contributing to the rise in FHLB advances this year. That is, banks have been raising liquidity via FHLBs not necessarily because they have lost liquidity and need to replace it, but rather in anticipation of potential liquidity needs in hopes of not having to sell their securities and to maintain/improve their LCRs.

    If all that sounds like a lot of financial jargon, then please ignore it – unless the discount window usage spikes again in coming weeks, it is likely that whatever event prompted one or more banks to quietly demand a bailout from the Fed, will pass. On the other hand, the message sent from the spike in discount window usage is ominous: no matter how one spins it, it suggests that as many as 30 small banks are now insolvent, and could represent the weakest link that – like the relatively small Terra/Luna implosion cascaded to the collapse of FTX and the wholesale deleveraging of the entire crypto ecosystem – leads to an violent and painful deleveraging of the entire US financial system.

    The full must-read JPM note available to pro subs in the usual place.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 22:00

  • Why Reparations Now?
    Why Reparations Now?

    Authored by Mark Ross via AmericanThinker.com,

    The absurdity of the concept of reparations for slavery, an institution that ended several generations ago, is beyond mind-boggling.  But there’s a blatantly cynical reason for the sudden lurch in that direction: formerly reliable Black voters are now slipping away from the Democrats.  This also explains Biden’s recently expressed profuse generosity towards the nations of sub-Saharan Africa.

    What is also painfully obvious is the lame, demagogic pandering that is the Democrats’ knee-jerk response, especially to a defecting constituency: just throw money at them and that’ll keep ‘em on the reservation.  Never mind the exposure to ridicule attached to redistributing money from people who never owned slaves to people who never were slaves, since the despicable practice was abolished over 150 years ago. 

    “Oh, the wealth and education gap that plagues the inner cities is the enduring legacy of slavery.” 

    Even if this were true, just throwing money at the problem is of particularly dubious benefit.

    The dystopic nature of our inner cities cannot be traced back to slavery.  Modern-day political machines are the culprits. 

    Paying women to have fatherless children; running schools that avoid imparting basic math and literacy skills while lowering the standards for achievement; suppressing police responses to avoid bad optics and litigation… all add up to imposed squalor.  And none of this can be traced back to slavery or any of its aftereffects.

    You may call it the “Trump Effect” or whatever — “working-class” voters have been shifting to the Republican party.  This includes Black folks and other “minorities.”  Nowadays progressive Democrats are mostly appealing to trust-fund-baby treehuggers and other guilty, virtue-signaling middle-class liberals. This is what’s happening.  And Trump didn’t even start it.  Some years ago, Pat Caddell, political advisor to Bill Clinton, bemoaned his perception that the Democrat party had been taken over by an “elite gentry.”  Trump did, however, accelerate the process of blue-collar defection by allowing the economy to fiercely expand and thus embrace many of those stuck on its bottom rungs.

    Another disquieting aspect of the reparations movement is its complete reliance on skin color.  Much like affirmative action, reparations promises to further institutionalize racism — as did Jim Crow laws in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.  This despite the suppressed reality that not all slave owners were white.  Just ask Kamala Harris’s Jamaican father, who freely admitted that his Black ancestors owned Black slaves.  This was further corroborated by my late former neighbor.  Though having been a Tuskegee airman, he admitted that his Hattian ancestors owned slaves.  Ironically, one of the founders of modern environmentalism, John James Audubon, was also Hattian — though of French descent.

    It also so happens that not all slaves were black Africans.  Originally, the British colonists brought in Scots and Irish slaves to fill the labor deficit created by the vastness of America.  These were not indentured slaves who only needed to work off the cost of their passage to achieve their freedom.  They were true chattel: property that was bought and paid for.  However, these northern Europeans were way too susceptible to malaria and proved to not be of much economic value.  A further irony lies in the particular common genetic trait of tropical African natives that allows them to be significantly more resistant to malaria than Europeans — it is also the cause of sickle cell anemia.

    So, should Americans with Scottish and Irish surnames also be entitled to reparations for slavery? 

    Is there any limit to the absurdity to which craven political hacks will stoop to cling to the reins of power?  After all, they cooked up affirmative action ostensibly to nullify whatever lingering damage that was done by previous racism… but instead, they enshrined privilege based on pigmentation. 

    To cap it all off, California has a reparations task force that is supposed to figure everything out by next July 1.  This includes eligibility, amount(s) of payment, etc.  The question of what actual fiscal impact such a splurge will have on a state with a rapidly evaporating tax base simply does not come up. That’s entirely within character for the nincompoops who run states like California. 

    The folks who are having the money thrown at them have no reason to complain and the folks whose money it used to be have little, if any, voice left to complain.  What a country!

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 21:40

  • Investors Eye Reopening Bets Without Buying China
    Investors Eye Reopening Bets Without Buying China

    By Hideyuki Sano, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

    Investors that want to bet on China’s economic reopening but are still concerned about the nation’s geopolitical risks and market volatility are finding better alternatives elsewhere in Asia.  

    The idea is that if Asia-Pacific’s No. 1 economy rebounds, it will also benefit the region’s big exporters to China like South Korea and Taiwan, as well as major commodity producers such as Australia and Indonesia. And investors in those areas won’t have to worry much about China risks such as sudden regulatory crackdowns, the property market’s debt turmoil, and the possibility of escalating military tensions with neighbors.

    “If one assumes the Chinese economy will improve, you can get similar benefits by investing in countries that have close ties with China,” said Hiroshi Matsumoto, senior client portfolio manager at Pictet Asset Management. The Swiss asset manager sees Germany in addition to Asian countries as getting a special boost from China opening up again.

    Goldman Sachs says emerging- market equities and commodities, especially copper, are among the largest beneficiaries from China reopening, adjusted for volatility.

    The MSCI Emerging Markets Index may rise to 1,080, a gain of about 13% from the current level, Goldman strategists Dominic Wilson and Vickie Chang estimated in a research note dated Dec. 2. That’s smaller than the potential gain of 17% in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index but it’s more than the 7.6% upside seen for the US S&P 500.

    A reopened China would require more commodity imports to power its massive economic engine, good news for resource-rich countries like Australia and Indonesia. “If China does reopen in a big way, without major headwinds, I think Indonesia and Australia become a lot more attractive,” said Charu Chanana, a senior strategist at Saxo Capital Markets.

    Compared with the wild moves in Chinese shares, Asian equities elsewhere are much less volatile, meaning that investors get better risk-adjusted returns. Three-month implied volatilities for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index stood at 30 while those for the Taiwanese, Korean and Australian benchmarks were 19, 17 and 14 respectively.

    Meeting to set economic policy priorities for 2023, Chinese leaders including President Xi Jinping said restoring and expanding consumption should “take precedence.” That suggests policy makers will take more steps to support the economy, which is facing near-term risks from the latest surges in Covid cases.

    Hopes that China will open its international borders may help tourism-related shares in Asian countries from Japan to Thailand, where Chinese tourists made up for about a quarter to a third of international arrivals. If those travelers return to Thailand sooner than expected, that may help lift the baht by improving the country’s current-account balance, said Nuttachart Mekmasin, analyst at Trinity Securities in Bangkok.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 21:00

  • Texas Power Grid Faces Crucial Moment Ahead Of Single Digit Temperatures
    Texas Power Grid Faces Crucial Moment Ahead Of Single Digit Temperatures

    Forecasters are warning that a potent Arctic airmass could plunge temperatures across Texas to single digits later this week. Temperatures in Texas’s Permian Basin could dip to 25 F by late Friday, risking the potential for freeze-offs that could curtail the flow of natural gas. The blast of cold air comes just 22 months after the early 2021 cold wave that collapsed Lone Star State’s power grid. 

    One weather model via PivitolWeather forecasts single digits in a large swath of Texas on Friday. 

    The North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC), a commission responsible for assessing power risks, warned that cold could stress the electrical grid in Texas. 

    “The effect it can have on generators — and the way demand can rise sharply in cold weather — can lead to load risk,” Mark Olson, a reliability manager at NERC, said, who was quoted by Bloomberg.  

    According to Houston-based NatGas research firm Criterion Research, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) — the state’s grid operator — expects power demand to rise to over 61 gigawatts on Friday, which would come close to summer loads and most prior winter showings. 

    A massive cold stress test for ERCOT appears to be imminent. Here’s more from Criterion: 

    ERCOT formally issued an “Operating Condition Notice (OCN)” ahead of this week’s winter weather that will run from December 22-26. The OCN goes into effect when temperatures fall below 25 degrees for the Austin/San Antonio and DFW areas. ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas cited that “As we monitor weather conditions, we want to assure Texans that the grid is resilient and reliable.”

     ERCOT’s latest load forecast is extreme, with the ISO expecting demand to rise to >61 GW on December 23, which rivals summer loads and most prior winter showings.

    Regional load will push above 50 GW as the front moves in on Thursday, and the demand will be most intense on Friday.

    Currently, wind is projected to reach a 12/22 level of 22 GW before dropping the following day (12/23) to 12 GW and then to 4.5 GW on 12/24.

    If this forecast holds for wind & total load, ERCOT will need its fossil fuel assets to ramp to 45 GW during the peak cold.

    ERCOT’s fossil fuel assets are certainly capable of 45-50 GW in demand, and the upcoming system is only bringing cold weather rather than the winter precipitation we saw during Winter Storm Uri.

    Bitterly cold temperatures in the coming days will test ERCOT’s winterization upgrades since the grid collapse in 2021. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 20:40

  • Bipartisan Bill Would Let Americans Voluntarily Give Up Gun Rights
    Bipartisan Bill Would Let Americans Voluntarily Give Up Gun Rights

    Authored by Emily Miller via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Congress is trying to pass a bill to allow the federal government to pressure people to give up their Second Amendment rights in the name of suicide prevention. At the same time, newly released documents show multiple federal law enforcement agencies have effectively done this to people without congressional approval.

    On Thursday, Gun Owners of America (GOA), put all its evidence online that shows the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has permanently disarmed people. The gun rights group is lobbying on Capitol Hill to stop this practice from being codified.

    Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) in Washington on April 28, 2022. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

    Capitol Hill Supports FBI Disarming Program

    The bipartisan bill called the “Preventing Suicide Through Voluntary Firearm Purchase Delay Act” passed the Judiciary Committee last week. It says the FBI would create a new database for people who volunteer to be blocked from buying or possessing a gun. The “delay” in the bill title refers to the period from which the person put themselves into the database and potentially subsequently took themselves out of it.

    The FBI program, which claims it ended in 2019, and the House bill both use a “self-submission” program to make people prohibited who could not be blocked from having a gun under current law. The Brady Law of 1993 created the NICS system of background checks to help enforce the nine prohibited categories of people (from the Gun Control Act of 1968 ) from buying guns.

    The House bill would upend federal background check gun law by making it arbitrary who loses the right to own or buy a gun. Under current law, a person is prohibited from buying or owning a firearm for mental health reasons only due to being adjudicated as mentally defective or involuntarily committed to a mental institution. The House bill makes it so people in this new FBI database who have not experienced these situations would still be committing a federal crime by possessing a gun.

    The Opposition

    “I’d like to make sure this bill in Congress doesn’t become law—lest it be weaponized against the American people,” Aidan Johnston, GOA’s director of federal affairs told The Epoch Times.

    “The very existence of a bill to codify what the FBI was already doing proves the FBI had no authorization from Congress to carry out this program,” said Johnston. The GOA’s released records showing the FBI has forced 23 people to permanently sign away their rights to own a gun, and the agency has still withheld documents in the ongoing Freedom of Information lawsuit.

    “Congress should be punishing those bureaucrats who abused it instead of codifying the program and the unconstitutional behavior,” said Johnston.

    Bipartisan Bill Speeds Through

    The legislation has two Democrat cosponsors—Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.)—and two Republicans. One of the two GOP cosponsors, Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah), is not on the Judiciary Committee.

    The other Republican, Ken Buck (R-Colo.), said after a lengthy debate about the problems that he hoped to work with Jaypal to fix the issues in the bill before the vote or in the days following. Since Democrats did not change anything, Buck voted against his own bill. The final vote was 20 to 16 on party lines.

    However, Buck said in the hearing that he will work with Jayapal to rewrite the bill and reintroduce it in the next Congress. A spokesman for Buck declined to comment on the timing of the next steps.

    Constitutional Issues With the Bill

    During the committee markup, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), spoke out about the multiple problems with the bill. Massie pointed out that the major flaw in this proposed law is it wouldn’t just affect the person who opts to lose the right to have a firearm. The bill makes it illegal to give or sell a gun to someone on the FBI’s new “Voluntary Purchase Delay Database.”

    “If my father added his name to this list ten years ago, and he says, ‘Hey Thomas, loan me a gun, I want to go hunting.’”said Massie. “And he seems of sound mind to me. And I loan him a shotgun. Then he goes out in the woods and kills himself, am I now guilty of a federal crime?”

    The Democrats on the committee responded that is “not the intent of the bill.” Massie replied, “What we are marking up is not intent. It’s U.S. code and it’s very precise. People will be convicted based on the language that comes out of here today.”

    Getting Rights Back

    Unlike the FBI program which is permanent, Congress would allow people to remove themselves from the database by requesting it from the Attorney General, which would process after 21 days. Buck said this should be rewritten to be 21 days after the request is submitted instead of when the Department of Justice acknowledged receipt.

    The other way to get out of the system is to petition the Attorney General with a declaration from a mental health professional that the individual does not present a substantial risk of harm to self. That would take effect in 24 hours. Buck said that part had to be rewritten. “I beg anyone on this committee to tell me when the federal government has done anything in 24 hours.”

    Jayapal said she didn’t have a problem fixing the multiple changes Buck suggested. This indicates the bill will be able to move quickly to the Rules Committee and possibly the floor during the next Congress. It is unlikely there will be a vote by the full House in the remaining days of the Democratic-controlled Congress.

    Secret Service and ICE Disarming

    The move on Capitol Hill came at the same time as the FBI released more documents to the GOA, as first reported by The Washington Examiner, Emails show the U.S. Secret Service and the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) sent signed forms to the FBI in which people who allegedly have mental health problems signed away their right to have a gun for the rest of their lives.

    “Awesome!” one ICE agent wrote to the FBI once a citizen’s form was added to the database.

    The Secret Service and ICE agents, both under the Department of Homeland Security, emailed multiple times with officials at the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) in a coordinated, federal program to take guns away from people who were mostly on the feds’ radar for online chat rooms.

    The internal document sent between the agencies is called the “NICS index self-submission form.” By signing the form, the person agrees to “denial of my right to purchase, to possess and to use any firearm.” It also says the signature means that once the person is in the so-called NICS index, he or she “may not be permitted to withdraw my name or information.”

    FBI Hiding Information

    Along with the emails from the other agencies, the FBI released eight more completed forms which all checked the box to agree they had a mental health condition that caused them to be a danger to themselves or others. The FBI will not say how many people have been put into the background check system without violating any federal laws.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 20:20

  • Texas Border Towns Prepare For Migrant Wave With Shipping Containers And Razor Wire
    Texas Border Towns Prepare For Migrant Wave With Shipping Containers And Razor Wire

    Even with the Supreme Court temporarily extending a Trump-era policy that bars asylum applicants from entering the U.S. to protect the American population from Covid-19, the Federal Government has offered no viable solutions and little to no help to southern border states to stop a growing wave of illegal immigrants.  White House officials continue to deny that there is a legitimate problem while also claiming they have been “doing the work since day one” to secure the border.  States and border towns are now left to deal with the threat on their own.

    Title 42 is a law established in 2020 by Donald Trump which coincided with the governments covid pandemic response.  It requires Border Patrol and law enforcement to immediately transfer apprehended illegal immigrants back across the border instead of allowing them to stay within the US while awaiting courts to rule on their citizenship status.  Using the guise of “asylum seeker,” millions of migrants are crossing the border in an attempt to remain in the country with access to welfare benefits and amenities.

    As we have seen in places like El Paso, there is also the ongoing problem of Democrat controlled “sanctuary cities” that have refused to cooperate with an overall state run response.  This past week the Mayor of El Paso, Oscar Leeser, finally admitted that the region is facing an emergency, which means he will be begging for relief funds but still will not do anything to stop migrants from flooding in.  According to public data, more than 80,000 migrants have invaded El Paso in the last four months.

    Leeser warned that after Title 42 ends on December 21st the number of migrants released onto city streets will be “incredible” – Up to 6000 per day or more.  El Paso has requested additional personnel for feeding and housing operations, additional busing operations and state law enforcement. 

    Border towns with no prevention operations and those that act as sanctuaries will undoubtedly be overrun in a matter of days once Title 42 expires.  In some cases (like El Paso) they are already being overrun.  Some towns in Texas are starting to realize the gravity of the situation and they are taking action along with state officials, with local news reporting efforts to quickly build make-shift border walls with shipping containers and razor wire:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    While this is better than nothing, the effects of the end of Title 42 are not being properly conveyed to the general public by the government or the media and it is likely that the border crisis will erupt to new levels over the course of the next few months going into Spring 2023.  The conditions for a humanitarian disaster are stacked like dominoes; a perfect storm that the American public will be hearing about on the news daily next year, but only after the damage has already been done. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 20:00

  • Rhode Island Ban On High-Capacity Firearm Magazines Is Constitutional: Judge
    Rhode Island Ban On High-Capacity Firearm Magazines Is Constitutional: Judge

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A federal judge in Rhode Island on Wednesday upheld a newly enacted state law banning the possession of large-capacity magazines that carry more than 10 rounds of ammunition.

    Guns in New York in a file image. (Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images)

    The decision came following a request by a Chepachet gun store and several Rhode Island gun owners for a preliminary injunction blocking the law, which they argue violates their constitutional rights, including the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms, among other things.

    However, U.S. District Court Chief Judge John J. McConnell Jr. on Wednesday said that the plaintiffs, Big Bear Hunting and Fishing Supply; three Rhode Island residents named in the lawsuit as Mary Brimer, James Grundy, and Jonathan Hirons; and a Newport homeowner who lives in Florida, Jeffrey Goyette, had failed to persuade the court that the law is unconstitutional and that they would suffer irreparable harm if it was allowed to take effect.

    The judge also said that allowing the law to be enforced was in the public’s interest.

    Gov. Dan McKee, a Democrat, signed the high-capacity magazine ban into law in June, noting at the time that Rhode Island was one of the few states to introduce or bolster gun safety legislation aimed at reducing and preventing gun violence in the wake of mass shootings in Buffalo, New York and Uvalde, Texas.

    The law, which went into effect on Dec. 18, makes it a felony to possess or own large-capacity magazines that contain more than 10 rounds of ammunition, which the governor said have “enabled numerous mass shootings” across the country.

    Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee gives an acceptance speech in front of supporters at a primary election night watch party in Providence, R.I., on Sept. 13, 2022. (David Goldman/AP Photo)

    New Law Could Cause Firearm Business ‘Irreparable Harm’

    A string of other measures were also signed into law, including raising the legal age to purchase firearms or ammunition in Rhode Island from 18 to 21, with exceptions for police and other law enforcement personnel, and prohibiting the open carrying of any loaded rifle or shotgun in public.

    However, the high-capacity magazine ban soon prompted a lawsuit from the plaintiffs, who claimed that they were now being “forced to dispose of their privately owned, and legally acquired Standard Capacity Magazines by December 18, 2022, without receiving any compensation, or rights with or without conditions of continued ownership to keep their lawfully acquired property.”

    “Should the Citizen Plaintiffs not comply with this requirement, each can now be convicted of a felony, and potentially face five (5) years of incarceration. Further, certain firearms, due to the expiration of their production, and for other reasons, cannot be modified for use with a smaller capacity magazine,” the plaintiffs wrote.

    Elsewhere, Big Bear Hunting and Fishing Supply, the firearms dealer listed in the lawsuit, argued that the business would suffer irreparable harm as a result of the law, noting that large-capacity magazines make up a substantial amount of their inventory.

    Despite their assertions, Judge McConnell Jr. said on Wednesday that the plaintiffs had failed to show that the magazines represented “arms” as stated in the Second Amendment, or presented credible evidence establishing the magazines as a weapon of self-defense, according to The Boston Globe.

    The judge also wrote that large-capacity magazines easily be used to convert handguns into semi-automatic weapons capable of rapid fire.

    Additionally, McConnell noted that victims of mass shootings are not “chosen randomly” but “because of what they represented to a particular person with a gun and a lot of ammunition.”

    Police stand behind a crime scene tape near the mass shooting at the Pulse nightclub on in Orlando, Fla. on June 12, 2016. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

    ‘Victims Have Not Been Chosen Randomly’

    “True, they are random in that their identities are usually not known to the shooter, and it appears to matter not to the shooter whether the next one killed is a particular person or the woman standing next to him. But in actuality, victims have not been chosen randomly.

    “They have been chosen because they are attending a synagogue in Pittsburgh or church in Sutherland Spring. Or because they are sitting in a school classroom in Newtown or a high school classroom in Parkland. Or because they were at a concert in Las Vegas or a nightclub in Orlando,” McConnell said.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 19:40

  • Actor Tim Robbins Expresses Regret For His Support Of Covid Authoritarianism
    Actor Tim Robbins Expresses Regret For His Support Of Covid Authoritarianism

    With multiple peer-reviewed studies showing the potential danger from autoimmune side effects associated with covid mRNA vaccines (the more doses the higher the risk) , along with numerous studies debunking the notion that lockdowns, mandates and masks are effective at stopping the spread of the virus, more and more public figures are beginning to speak out about their initial support of the authoritarian measures. 

    Actor Tim Robbins recently expressed his regret on Russell Brand’s podcast for blindly following government mandates and he admonished tyrannical attitudes that led lockdown supporters to call for the deaths of their political opponents.

    While hindsight is indeed 20/20, it should be noted that there were millions of people in the US alone that saw the covid hype for what it was and tried to warn others.

    The fear mongering by the government and mainstream media in the face of the covid pandemic was effective in terrorizing at least half the American populace into compliance during the first year of the event.  Many alternative media analysts and many doctors and virologists came out against the mandates early on, warning that the median Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of covid was tiny (0.23% officially) and that the lockdowns were about control rather than public safety.  These people were demonized by the corporate media and threatened with punishment by the government.  They faced censorship, potential joblessness and being denied access to health care.  In some cases they were even labeled “terrorists” for refusing to comply.  

    Luckily, half the states in the US rejected the mandates and stood firm against Joe Biden’s efforts to institute vaccine passport rules on American employers and workers.  Had it not been for those conservative state officials and the liberty minded people that fought back, our nation might look more like China today with its draconian “zero covid” policy. 

    As we all said from the very beginning, the covid response was about centralizing power over the population using fear.  It was never about saving lives.  The US came within a breath of perpetual medical totalitarianism, and much needs to be learned in terms of public psychology as the dust settles on covid.     

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 19:20

  • With ChatGPT, Education May Never Be The Same
    With ChatGPT, Education May Never Be The Same

    Authored by Michael Brockman via RealClearEducation.com,

    ChatGPT, a new Artificial Intelligence tool from OpenAI, is as simple to use as a search engine but can generate almost any text on command in response to a user prompt. Already, users have discovered that it can compose new songs, write essays, and take tests. It can even craft a rhyming poem about how to hotwire a car (but only if you ask it the right way). The tool reportedly scored an 82 on an IQ test, a 1020 on the SAT, and showed itself to have establishment liberal political leanings. Tools like ChatGPT have the potential to change society dramatically – and education, in particular, may never be the same. 

    Over recent decades search engines, graphing calculators, cell phones, and self-guided resources like YouTube and Khan Academy have led teachers to view their own role as less “sage on the stage” and more “guide on the side.” These advancements also exponentially increased the ease of cheating and left educators forced to make tough choices about the extent to which they should accept these developments or engage in a technology arms race to combat them.

    But ChatGPT is the first tool that enables students to request, say, a four-paragraph academic essay on the differences between the Ottoman and Safavid empires and receive just that, instantaneously. Reading such outputs, you may try to assure yourself that these answers are being sourced from some vast, hidden encyclopedia and, as soon as teachers begin to see dozens of identical essays, that the game will be up. But that’s not the case. Add sufficient detail or modifications to your prompt, and ChatGPT will likely produce a totally different essay. 

    Educators will have to respond to these changes, but policymakers will have to cope with them, too. When asked to write a bill for a member for Congress that would make changes to federal student aid programs, ChatGPT produced one in seconds. When then asked for Republican and Democrat amendments focused on consumer protection, it delivered a credible version that each party might conceivably offer. It even matched the propensity of most members of Congress to order a federal agency to do something without outlining limits on that power. Add this to the list of potential dangers from AI that we have not yet fully grasped.

    Access to nearly unlimited knowledge through the Internet has made formal education more important in some ways and less so in others. Children need to learn how to use the tools that adults take for granted and to navigate multiplying pitfalls. Such technology will also raise issues of “job displacement as more tasks and activities are automated using AI” – at least, that’s what ChatGPT said when I asked. It may feel that we are barely coping with the effect of technology’s breakneck pace of change. And someone just hit the accelerator.

    Tools like ChatGPT can also help us, though. As with past technologies, some jobs will benefit, seeing some of their drudgery reduced. In K-12 education, reformers have been calling for an AI-driven revolution in customized learning for years. We may now have a way to deliver, while also providing personalized tutoring for all. That is not to say that ChatGPT is perfect. It still often stumbles and can miss on basic facts that Google or commonsense would easily supply.  Nor does it yet come close to matching the capabilities shown in the novel “Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer,” which describes how young people are provided with an end-to-end, customized education.

    Still, such tools get us closer to these scenarios and can help close access and opportunity gaps.  They can open doors to new methods of learning, democratize educational resources currently reserved for expensive and elite universities, and create new online economies along with the training pathways necessary to access them. In order to realize this potential, AI creators must resist the temptation to put the best features behind paywalls or bow to the pressures that have resulted in censorship on social media.

    These technology-driven disruptions will not be smooth, even if they can make us better off in the long run. Among the worst things we could do would be to let the drawbacks of these technologies deny us their benefits. In addition, the net effect of these changes will not be felt equally, so we all had better improve our capacity for compassion soon. Telling coal miners to “learn to code” was a bad strategy in the past, and it’s even worse now, when AI tools can write entire software applications from scratch.

    The impact of ChatGPT and similar tools on education and the workforce may not yet feel much different than the trends of recent decades, but the depth and breadth of the changes brought by AI tools is accelerating and may be something new entirely. Policymakers have a responsibility to be nimble in their response and avoid using regulation as a “cure” to perceived short-term ills. This will not be the last time that technology will disrupt education, the workforce, and the broader society.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 19:00

  • "Insane, Brave, Karen": Stanford Drops New Woke List Of Verboten Language
    “Insane, Brave, Karen”: Stanford Drops New Woke List Of Verboten Language

    Stanford University, home to one of the most unethical psychology experiments in history, has just dropped a list of words we’re not supposed to use.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Newly verboten words, categorized by type of offense include;

    Ableism:

    Insane, Lame, Crazy, Spaz and Tone Deaf – which are ” Ableist language that trivializes the experiences of people living with mental health conditions.”

    Culturally Appropriative:

    Brave – which “perpetuates the stereotype of the “noble courageous savage,” equating the Indigenous male as being less than a man.”

    Tribe – “Historically used to equate Indigenous people with savages.”

    Guru – “In the Buddhist and Hindu traditions, the word is a sign of respect. Using it casually negates its original value.”

    Gender Based:

    He / She –  Unless you know the person you’re addressing uses “he / she” as their pronoun, it is better to use “they” or to ask the person which pronouns they use.

    Ladies, Landlord/Landlady, Gentlemen / Freshman / Congressman/woman, you guys – “Lumps a group of people using gender binary language that doesn’t include everyone.”

    Seminal – This term reinforces male-dominated language.

    Transgendered – This term avoids connections that being transgender is something that is done to a person and/or that some kind of transition is required.

    Imprecise Language:

    Abort – This term can unintentionally raise religious/moral concerns over abortion.

    American – This term often refers to people from the United States only, thereby insinuating that the US is the most important country in the Americas (which is actually made up of 42 countries). [ZH: ACKCHYUALLY]

    Karen –  This term is used to ridicule or demean a certain group of people based on their behaviors.

    Thug –  Although the term refers to a violent person or criminal, it often takes on a racist connotation when used in certain circles.

    The list goes on and on…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    If you’re still reading, why not keep going!

    Person-First:

    Homeless Person, Immigrant, Prisoner, Prostitute – Using person-first language helps to not define people by just one of their characteristics.

    Violent:

    Trigger warning – The phrase can cause stress about what’s to follow. Additionally, one can never know what may or may not trigger a particular person.

    War room – Unnecesary [Stanford spelled this wrong] use of violent language

    Pull the trigger –  Unnecessarily uses violent imagery to encourage another person to do something.

    Killing two birds with one stone – This expression normalizes violence against animals.

    Honorable mention:

    Long time no see –  This phrase was originally used to mock Indigenous peoples and Chinese who spoke pidgin English.

    Make it stop!

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 18:40

  • Sam Bankman-Fried Has Agreed To Be Extradited
    Sam Bankman-Fried Has Agreed To Be Extradited

    Update (1815ET): It has been quite a day in Nassau. The on-again, off-again deportation process of Sam Bankman-Fried has once again swung the other way.

    Following a chaotic court hearing earlier today – in which his local lawyer appeared at odds with his US legal team – The Wall Street Journal reports that, according to a person familiar with the matter, the FTX founder has agreed to be extradited, and plans were being fleshed out by his legal team after the day’s court proceedings.

    Jerone Roberts, who represents Mr. Bankman-Fried in the Bahamas, has reportedly agreed to draft the necessary documents after having a conference call with the former chief executive and his U.S. lawyers.

    Bankman-Fried’s lawyers hope to have a new hearing on the matter as early as Tuesday.

    *  *  *

    Update (1250ET): Bankman-Fried reportedly wants to see the indictment against him before agreeing to extradition to the United States, according to Reuters, citing a statement made by SBF’s attorney to a court in the Bahamas on Monday.

    He had been expected to waive his right to an extradition hearing on Monday morning, but in court demanded to see a copy of his federal indictment.

    As we detailed earlier, reports over the weekend suggested that Bankman-Fried would consent to extradition, but the former crypto billionaire told a different story Monday, demanding to see a copy of his federal indictment before agreeing to return to the U.S. He will return to Fox Hill jail rather than surrendering himself to U.S. custody.

    CNBC reports that in open court, chaos reigned.

    Bankman-Fried, dressed in a blue suit and white button down, was visibly shaking. His Bahamian defense attorney told the court that he was “shocked” that Bankman-Fried was in court.

    “I did not request him to be here this morning,” the attorney said. Franklyn Williams KC, the Bahamian prosecutor, said that he “understood that [Bankman-Fried] intended to waive extradition,” according to an NBC News producer present in the courtroom.

    As Cointelegraph notes, some members of the crypto space, including the team behind YouTuber Ben Armstrong, also known as Bitboy Crypto, reported on Twitter they appeared in person at the hearing to “look SBF in the eyes.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    *  *  *

    It appears crypto-criminal Sam Bankman-Fried would rather take his chances in the relative ‘luxury’ of an American jail than face another night in Bahamian’s corrections department, as he is expected to accept extradition as soon as this morning.

    After being arrested and denied bail by a Bahamas court, the 30-year-old has been held at Fox Hill Prison in Nassau.

    The facility has been criticized in international reports for overcrowding and lacking sanitation.

    Reports indicate that he shares a cell with five other individuals.

    The NY Times reports one former Fox Hill inmate Sean Hall, who was freed from jail last year, said:

    “It’s no living situation for no type of living being.”

    According to Hall, the width of his cell was less than the span of his stretched arms, and they slept on bare metal bunk beds infested with insects.

    Another source acquainted with the situation told the Wall Street Journal that Sam Bankman-Fried’s team had provided meals that matched his dietary requirements, but they were uncertain as of Friday if he had received them.

    According to people familiar with the matter, Sam Bankman-Fried is due in a Bahamian court on Monday where he is expected to agree to be extradited to the US to face charges of fraud.

    Extradition will pave the way for a protracted legal showdown in the U.S. On Tuesday, the Southern District of New York of the Justice Department unsealed a 13-page criminal indictment.

    Bitcoinist reports, that, according to defense attorney Zachary Margulis-Ohnuma, Bankman-Fried would likely be detained at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn upon arriving in the U.S., although some defendants are being kept at jails just outside of New York City owing to congestion at the facility.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 18:23

  • Understanding Long Term Moves In Gold, What's Going On?
    Understanding Long Term Moves In Gold, What’s Going On?

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    To understand what has happened and what is likely to happen, look at faith in the Fed and central banks in general…

    A long-term chart suggests the real driver for gold is not inflation, not the dollar, not conspiracies, not China, and not oil, but rather faith in central banks. 

    Timeline Synopsis 

    • Nixon closed the gold redemption window on August 15, 1971. The price of gold was $35 an ounce.

    • Faith in the dollar and central banks collapsed. Inflation soared.

    • Gold peaked at $850 per ounce on January 21 1980.

    • That’s when Fed Chair Paul Volcker jacked up interest rates to 20 percent to squash inflation.  

    • Volcker was followed by Alan Greenspan, deemed the “Great Maestro”. 

    • There was inflation every step of the way yet, gold fell from $850 an ounce to $250 an ounce proving gold is not an inflation hedge.

    • In the period between 1999 and 2002, Gordon Brown, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (roughly the equivalent of the US Secretary of Treasury), sold off 395 tons of gold, showing great faith in fiat currencies over gold. This event is known as “Brown’s Bottom”. 

    • To bail out banks that invested in worthless DotCom companies and also lost then huge amounts of money on bad loans to South American countries Greenspan recklessly lowered interest rates and held them too low too long. 

    • Gold took off thanks to Fed stimulus that culminated in a housing bubble and bust.

    • Gold, like everything else sold off hard in that bust. In March of 2009, the Fed suspended mark-to-market accounting of bank assets. The stock market took off and so did gold.

    • The Fed launched QE and so did the ECB. Credit stress in the EMU was also brewing. There was a huge risk of the Eurozone would break apart. Greece was the weak link but fears were of a cascade if Greece left.

    • On 26 July 2012, the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, delivered a speech at a conference in London that brought a crucial turnaround in the euro crisis. 

    • Mario Draghi said “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.’

    • What did Mario Draghi do? The answer is amusing. Absolutely nothing. However, eurozone bond yield collapsed, temporarily saving the day.

    • In 2016 the Fed and ECB were both engaging in more QE and sovereign yields went negative in Europe and Japan. Gold blasted to a new high, double topping in 2021. 

    • In 2022 the Fed finally got around to hiking. Gold started dropping hard in 2022 despite the fact that year-over-year inflation topped 9 percent. Once again this shows gold is a poor inflation hedge. 

    • The Fed has kept up a steady stream of hawkish talk and here we are.  

    Fed’s Resolve

    It was time to go to the gold sidelines when it was clear the Fed was about to go on a major hiking cycle. 

    I made a mistake in not believing the Fed’s resolve. By the time I did, I felt there was not much more downside. 

    Gold is up nearly $200 an ounce from the lows.

    The Fed Projects Interest Rates Higher for Longer at Least Through 2023

    On December 14, I commented The Fed Projects Interest Rates Higher for Longer at Least Through 2023

    A parade of Fed governors offering the same take.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Gold doesn’t seem to believe that although it did react poorly on the announcement.

    Q: Can gold and Powell both be right?
    A: Yes, in a way.

    Gold also reacts to credit stress. It soared following Nixon shock, in the housing bubble, and with QE.

    It plunged under Greenspan disinflation and after Mario Draghi made his “Whatever it Takes Speech” 

    Meanwhile, the Fed seems hell bent on breaking something and I suspect they will.

    Gold Weekly Support Levels 

    It’s possible gold is reacting to pending credit stress in the US, EU, China, or elsewhere. It’s possible that the $200 bounce is purely technical off strong support at $1650. 

    $1450 is also strong support. 1550 has moderate support. There is pretty strong resistance in a range $1850 to $1900.

    If you believe the Fed will produce some uneventful soft landing with steady disinflation, gold may not be where you want to be. 

    Meanwhile, talk on Twitterland is of a new gold repricing model, of oil priced in gold, of yuan backed by gold, of 9 year cycles, and central bank buying gold was bearish then and bullish now, with price targets of $9,000. All that discussion seems more than a bit silly to me.  

    Finally, the lead chart shows gold is in a major 10-year cup and handle setup, normally a bullish formation. And typically, the longer the consolidation, the bigger the move when it happens. 

    The other side of the coin, as addressed in my previous post, is that bullish formations and support levels often fail in bear markets while resistance and bearish formations fail in bull markets. 

    That’s both sides of the gold case in one post without all the hype. 

    What About the Dollar?

    Don’t fall into the trap of thinking gold always moves with the dollar. With the US dollar index at 90, gold has been at $250, $1,400, $1,200, and $600. 

    On a short term basis gold tends to move with the dollar, but sometimes, even for long periods of time, it doesn’t. 

    And while price correlation tends to be present, magnitude isn’t which is how you get $1,400 gold and $400 gold with the dollar index in the same place.

    *  *  *

    Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 18:20

  • Supreme Court Temporarily Blocks Biden Admin's Lifting Of Trump-Era Border Policy
    Supreme Court Temporarily Blocks Biden Admin’s Lifting Of Trump-Era Border Policy

    With Title 42 – the Trump-er border policy, set to expire on Wednesday, and numerous border towns panicking ahead of what is expected to be an even greater influx of immigrants at the southern border than is already being experienced, Chief Justice John Roberts temporarily blocked the scheduled ending while the US Supreme Court considers a bid by Republican state officials to keep the rules in place during a legal fight.

    Title 42, a pandemic-related public-health measure allowing migrants to be quickly expelled back to Mexico after crossing the border illegally, is believed to have acted as a deterrent for some migrants seeking asylum because they could be turned back even if they asked for protection.

    As JustTheNews reports, an estimated 2.5 million migrants have been removed under the order since its implementation.

    Meanwhile, border officials have had to combat already record-high migration numbers, with 2.4 million migrants crossing in fiscal year 2022 alone and roughly 4 million doing so since President Joe Biden took office in January of 2021. Those figures are expected to rise further should the Title 42 border enforcement mechanic render authorities unable to swiftly remove border crossers.

    As The Wall Street Journal reports, Chief Justice Roberts, who oversees emergency matters from the District of Columbia, gave the Biden administration until 5 p.m. Tuesday to file its legal response.

    The temporary order is to remain in effect until the court decides the emergency request, led by the Republican attorneys general of Arizona and Louisiana.

    The order doesn’t indicate the court’s view of the legal issues, but the court’s conservative majority has in other cases issued emergency orders that blocked Biden administration priorities.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 18:00

Digest powered by RSS Digest