Today’s News 20th February 2021

• Our Descent Into Collective Madness
  Our Descent Into Collective Madness

  Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via PJMedia.com,

  These are crazy times. A pandemic led to national quarantine; to self-induced recession; to riot, arson, and looting; to a contested election; and to a riot at the U.S. Capitol.

  In response, are we focusing solely on upping the daily vaccination rate? Getting the country back to work? Opening the schools as the virus attenuates? Ensuring safety in the streets?

  Or are we descending into a sort of madness?

  

  It might have been understandable that trillions of dollars had to be borrowed to keep a suffocating economy breathing.

  But it makes little sense to keep borrowing $2 trillion a year to prime an economy now set to roar back with herd-like immunity on the horizon.

  Trillions of dollars in stimulus are already priming the economy.

  Cabin-feverish Americans are poised to get out of their homes to travel, eat out and socialize as never before.

  Meanwhile, the United States will have to start paying down nearly $30 trillion in debt. But we seem more fixated on raising rather than reducing that astronomical obligation.

  We are told man-made, worldwide climate change – as in the now-discarded term “global warming” – can best be addressed by massive dislocations in the U.S. economy.

  The Biden administration plans to shut down coal plants. It will halt even nearly completed new gas and oil pipelines. It will cut back on fracking to embrace the multitrillion-dollar “Green New Deal.”

  Americans should pause and examine the utter disaster that unfolded recently in Texas and its environs.

  Parts of the American Southwest were covered in ice and snow for days. Nighttime temperatures crashed to near zero in some places.

  The state, under pressure, had been transitioning from its near-limitless and cheap reservoirs of natural gas and other fossil fuels to generating power through wind and solar.

  But what happens to millions of Texans when wind turbines freeze up while storm clouds extinguish solar power?

  We are witnessing the answer in oil- and gas-rich but energy-poor Texas that is all but shut down.

  Millions are shivering without electricity and affordable heating. Some may die or become ill by this self-induced disaster — one fueled by man-made ideological rigidity.

  Texas’ use of natural gas in power generation has helped the United States curb carbon emissions. Ignoring it for unreliable wind and solar alternatives was bound to have catastrophic consequences whenever a politically incorrect nature did not follow the global warming script.

  In 2019, a special counsel wrapped up a 22-month, $35 million investigation into then-President Donald Trump’s alleged “collusion” with Russia in the 2016 election. Robert Mueller and his team searched long and hard for a crime and came up empty.

  Then, Trump was impeached in December 2019 and acquitted in the Senate in early 2020. His purported crime was warning the Ukrainians about the Biden family’s quid pro quo racketeering.

  After the revelations concerning Hunter Biden’s shenanigans not only in Ukraine but also in Kazakhstan and China, Trump’s admonitions now seem prescient rather than impeachable.

  Trump had been threatened with removal from office under the 25th Amendment. He was accused of violating the Logan Act and the Constitution’s emoluments clause. His executive orders were often declared unconstitutional if not seditious.

  All these oppositional measures predictably failed to receive either public or congressional support.

  Finally, an exasperated left decided to flog the presidential corpse of now private citizen Trump. It did so without a Supreme Court chief justice to oversee an impeachment trial in the Senate. The targeted president was no longer president.

  There was no special prosecutor, little debate and even less cross-examination. In the end, the second impeachment was sillier than the first. But, like the first, the show trial wasted precious time and resources in the midst of a pandemic.

  But the height of our collective madness is the current cancel culture. Its subtexts are “unearned white privilege” and “white supremacy.”

  In the name of those abominations, mobs tear down statues, destroy careers, censor speech, require veritable oaths and conduct reeducation training.

  Stranger still, those alleging “white privilege” are usually themselves quite wealthy, liberal — and white. These elites count on their incestuous networking, silver-spoon upbringings and tony degrees to leverage status, influence and money in a way undreamed of by the white working class.

  Affluent and privileged minorities likewise join the chorus to call for everything from reparations to “reprogramming” Trump voters.

  The most elite in America are the most likely to damn the privilege of those who lack it. Perhaps this illogic squares the psychological circle of feeling guilty about things they never have any intention of giving up.

  If blaming those without advantages does not satisfy the unhappy liberal elite, then there is always warring against the mute dead: changing their eponymous names, destroying their statues, slandering their memories and denying their achievements.

  The common denominator with all these absurdities? An ungracious and neurotic elite whose judgment is bankrupt and whose privilege is paid for by those who don’t have it.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 02/20/2021 – 00:00

• US Army Prepares To Equip Unit With Hypersonic Capability 
  US Army Prepares To Equip Unit With Hypersonic Capability 

  Following conflicts over trade, technology, and capital markets, rising political tensions between the US and China will continue under the Biden administration.

  For instance, the US Army is expected to equip its first unit with hypersonic equipment this fall. The Pentagon is far behind in the hypersonic races with China and Russia. 

  A hypersonic unit within the Army will begin training with all the equipment it needs to launch these new weapons, according to Lt. Gen. L. Neil Thurgood, director of the Army’s Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office, who spoke with Defense News.

  Thurgood said the equipment will be delivered to the unit by September. 

  “By the end of this fiscal year, which is in September, all of the equipment that the unit needs plus training will be delivered to the unit,” he said. 

  The unit will be supplied with a vast number of launchers, trucks, trailers, computer systems, and other pieces of equipment to begin training in early 2022. 

  

  Thurgood declined to tell Defense News which unit will receive the equipment. He said the live round is the only piece of equipment that won’t be delivered this fall. It was noted that the weapon itself will be delivered in 2023. 

  Thurgood did not comment on the type of hypersonic weapon the unit will be receiving. However, we noted last March, the US Department of Defense (DoD) successfully launched a common hypersonic glide body (C-HGB) missile from the Pacific Missile Range Facility, Kauai, Hawaii.

  U.S. Navy and U.S. Army jointly tests hypersonic glide body pic.twitter.com/9Fr8YvlBUS

  — Dylan Malyasov (@DylanMalyasov) March 21, 2020

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The DoD has been allocating more funds to hypersonic programs for upcoming military budgets as it must desperately catch up with China and Russia. 

  Senator James Inhofe, a senior Republican from oil-producing Oklahoma and Senate Armed Services Chairman, told Defense News in 2019 that DoD’s hypersonic testing labs were inadequate. He said, “dilapidated testing infrastructure is holding us back from catching up to our enemies. Just look at hypersonic weapons: Beijing is parading around dozens of its newest weapons, and we have yet to build one.”

  The US is in a hypersonic race with major global superpowers and is clearly behind the curve. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 23:40

• The Decline Of The West: American Education Surrenders To "Equity"
  The Decline Of The West: American Education Surrenders To “Equity”

  Authored by Philip Giraldi via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

  It will be difficult or even impossible to go back to a system where learning is actually a discipline that requires hard work and dedication…

  

  Public education in the United States, if measured by results, has been producing graduates that are less competent in language skills and dramatically less well taught in the sciences and mathematics since 1964, when Scholastic Aptitude Test scores peaked. The decline in science and math skills has accelerated in the past decade according to rankings of American students compared to their peers overseas. A recent assessment, from 2015, placed the U.S. at 38th out of 71 countries in math and 24th in science. Among the 35 members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD), the United States came in at 30th in math and 19th in science. Those poor results must be placed in a context of American taxpayers spending more money per student than any other country in the world, so the availability of resources is not necessarily a factor in most school districts.

  Much of the decline is due to technical advances that level the playing field for teachers worldwide, but one must also consider changing perceptions of the role of education in a social context. In the United States in particular, political and cultural unrest certainly have been relevant factors. But all of that said and considered, the U.S. is now confronting a reassessment of values that will likely alter forever traditional education and will also make American students even more non-competitive with their foreign peers.

  Many schools in the United States have ceased issuing grades that have any meaning, or they have dropped grading altogether, which means there is no way to judge progress or achievement. National test scores for evaluating possible college entry are on the way out almost everywhere as they are increasingly being condemned as “racist” in terms of how they assess learning based solely on the fact that blacks do less well on them than Asians and whites. This has all been part of an agenda that is being pushed that will search for and eliminate any taint of racism in the public space. It has also meant the destruction or removal of numerous historic monuments and an avoidance of any honest discussion of American history. San Francisco schools are, for example, notoriously spending more than $1 million to change the names of 44 schools that honor individuals who have been examined under the “racism and oppression” microscope and found wanting. They include George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln, and Paul Revere.

  The new world order for education is built around the concept of “equity,” sometimes described as using the public education system to “ensure equitable outcomes.” But the concept itself is deeply flawed as the pursuit of equity means treating all American unequally to guarantee that everyone that comes out of the schools is the same and has learned the same things. That is, of course, ridiculous and it penalizes the good student to make sure that the bad student is somehow pushed through the system and winds up with the same piece of paper.

  And the quality overall of public education will sharply decline. One might reasonably observe that imposition of a totalitarian style “equity” regime based on race will inevitably drive many of the academically better prepared students out of the system. Many of the better teachers will also move to the private academies that will spring up due to parental and student demand. Others will stop teaching altogether when confronted by political correctness at a level that prior to 2020 would have seemed unimaginable. The actual quality of education will suffer for everyone involved

  All of that has been bad enough, but the clincher is that this transformation is taking place all over the United States with the encouragement of federal, state and local governments and once the new regime is established it will be difficult or even impossible to go back to a system where learning is actually a discipline that sometimes requires hard work and dedication. In many school districts, the actual process of change is also being put on the back of the taxpayer. In one Virginia county the local school board spent $422,500 on a consultant to apply so-called Critical Race Theory (CRT) to a new program of instruction that will be mandatory for all employees and will serve as the framework for teaching the students. When schools eventually reopen, all kindergarteners, for example, will be taught “social justice” in a course designed by the controversial Southern Poverty Law Center and “diversity training” will be integrated in all other grade levels. Teaching reading, writing and arithmetic will take a back seat of “social justice.”

  Critical Race Theory, which is being promoted as the framework for reorganizing the schools along lines of racial preferences, has been fairly criticized as it pretends to be an antidote to systemic racism but is itself racist in nature as it opposes a race neutral system that equally benefits everyone. It proposes that all of America’s governmental bodies and infrastructures are racist and supportive of “white supremacy” and must be deconstructed. It requires everything to be examined through a value system determined by identity politics and race and it views both whites and their institutions as hopelessly corrupted, if not evil.

  Fortunately, some pushback to the Jacobins of political correctness is developing. Parents in many school districts are starting to attend school board meetings to register their opposition and even some school board members and teachers are refusing to cooperate. The teachers do so at risk of losing their jobs. At the elite Dalton private school in New York City parents have sent a letter to the Head of School Jim Best complaining how the newly introduced “anti-racist” curriculum has been gravely distorted by Critical Race Theory and the pursuit of “equity” to such an extent that it has included “a pessimistic and age-inappropriate litany of grievances in EVERY class. We have confused a progressive pedagogical model with progressive politics. Even for people who are sympathetic to that political viewpoint, the role of a school is not to indoctrinate politically. It’s to open the minds of children to the wonders of the world and learning. The Dalton we love, that has changed our lives, is nowhere to be found. And that is a huge loss.”

  The letter also stated that “Every class this year has had an obsessive focus on race and identity, ‘racist cop’ reenactments in science, ‘decentering whiteness’ in art class, learning about white supremacy and sexuality in health class. Wildly age-inappropriate, many of these classes feel more akin to a Zoom corporate sensitivity training than to Dalton’s intellectually engaging curriculum.”

  Ironically, much of the new curriculum is being driven by a core of radicalized Dalton faculty members, who in December signed on to an “anti-racism manifesto” which demanded that the school “hire 12 full-time diversity officers, abolish high-level academic courses if Black students’ performance isn’t on par with White students’, and require anti-racism ‘statements’ from all members of the staff.”

  Inevitably what is going on at Dalton and elsewhere is also playing out at many of America’s top universities, so the rot will persist into the next generation when today’s college students themselves become teachers. A black Princeton professor of classics is calling for all classics departments to be done away with because they promote “racism, slavery and white supremacy.” America’s education system, once upon a time, benefited the nation and its people, but we are now watching it in its death throes. And please don’t expect the Joe Biden administration to do anything to save it. They are on the side of the wreckers.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 23:20

• First Look Inside St. Louis' "Hooverville-Style" Tiny Home Village For Homeless 
  First Look Inside St. Louis’ “Hooverville-Style” Tiny Home Village For Homeless 

  A modern-day “Hooverville” has been constructed in St. Louis, Missouri, consists of dozens of people who have been left behind in the “K-shaped” recovery. 

  The tiny house village, a temporary housing program erected by the city, is located off Jefferson Avenue just north of downtown. The shanty village built during the pandemic depression is for the homeless. 

  

  The village was constructed with about $600k from the federal CARES Act and has a 29-month lease on the property. 

  “There are single and double homes. They have heating and AC, plus a bed and desk. The property offers showers, restrooms, laundry, three meals a day and 24-hour access to caseworkers. The heat is the biggest thing for many of the residents as the temperatures drop,” said local news KMOV. 

  

  Amy Bickford, the program director for the city’s homeless services, said at any given time, there are “200-500 people on the streets.” That number increases as the pandemic recession have resulted in steep job loss in the metro area. 

  A storm is gathering as an eviction crisis materializes. Even though there’s a federal moratorium on evictions – tens of thousands of folks in the city are unemployed and face imminent eviction because of missed rent payments.

  This means when courts open up – homelessness in the area could explode, thus increasing the need to expand the tiny home village for first-time homeless. 

  KMOV interviewed one resident of the tiny home village who said he is “thankful for a roof over his head even if it’s just a few square feet.” 

  Lloyd Covington III said, “It’s very heartwarming. I understand what it feels like to be a big kid now.” 

  At the moment, 50 people live in the village. 

  KMOV spoke with Andy, who he and his wife recently moved into one of the tiny homes. They’ve been homeless for six months. “It’d be horrible to be out on the street on a day like this,” he said.

  

  “I got sick, had a bad infection in my leg, lost my job and a kind of snow ball effect from there,” he said.

  We noted days ago working-poor Americans are downsizing their lives and are living simply as the pandemic downturn has crushed their ability to afford rent and food. 

  In reality, the federal government and Federal Reserve’s rescue packages created a “K-shaped” recovery where only the wealthy, or perhaps the top 10% of Americans, were unaffected. Meanwhile, the bottom 90% were given lousy stimulus checks as they battle with housing and food insecurities. 

  In short, these tiny home villages for the homeless, which closely resemble Hoovervilles from the 1930’s Great Depression, are set to spring up across other major metro areas as more than ten million people remain out of work. Once the eviction moratoriums are lifted, a flood of people will become homeless. They will have no other choice to seek but these temporary housing villages as homeless shelters are full. 

  Do these villages need a name – maybe “Bidenvilles”? 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 23:00

• U.S. Wants To Negotiate With Iran As Israel And Hezbollah Exchange Threats
  U.S. Wants To Negotiate With Iran As Israel And Hezbollah Exchange Threats

  Submitted by South Front,

  Hezbollah, one of Israel’s sworn enemies and a staunch ally of Iran continues its tough rhetoric against Tel Aviv.

  On February 17th, the group released a 2-minute video titled “Oh Zionists, You Have Military and Security Targets Within Your Cities.” The footage contained a threat to strike 10 Israel Defense Forces (IDF) targets throughout Israeli cities.

  Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was shown warning Aviv Kochavi, Chief of General Staff of IDF with “total war”. The Hezbollah video warning of war if the IDF chose to initiate it came in response to large-scale drills that the IDF held in recent weeks.

  During the exercise, IDF pilots trained to hit up to 3,000 targets per day in case of all-out confrontation.

  This tougher rhetoric from Hezbollah is not something uncommon. What makes it significant is that the movement can afford to make it even tougher due to the Biden Administration formally being less supportive of Israel.

  On February 18th, US President Joe Biden told Iran that it was ready to take part in EU-sponsored talks to restore the Iran Nuclear Deal.

  This seems as a large concession, and causes a sense of urgency in Israel. For the first time since he entered into office, Biden accepted a phone call from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

  In the conversation, Biden affirmed the US commitment to Israel’s security, and mutual defense cooperation. He said that the flow of weapons, equipment and funding would continue. It all appeared very hollow and according to script.

  Similarly, to what US President Barack Obama did, Biden promised to increase Israeli military aid, but that also means it will not get any more “tangible” support.

  This is all good and well, but it simply means “you will not feel as special as you were when Donald Trump was around.”

  Separately, another Axis of Resistance enemy, Saudi Arabia is suffering by Yemen’s Ansar Allah (the Houthis).

  On February 17th, the Houthis captured the significant Marib Dam, as they push towards Marib city and consolidate power in the surrounding areas.

  The city is the last major stronghold of the Saudi-led coalition in central Yemen. If it falls, which seems quite plausible, the Houthis will have even more opportunity to push into southern Saudi Arabia.

  In their past raids they have captured hundreds of Saudi-led coalition soldiers and various equipment.

  February 2021 seems to be the month of the Axis of Resistance, with Iran’s campaign of non-compliance with the Nuclear Deal giving fruit. Hezbollah, the Houthis and the pro-Iranian groups in Iraq and Syria further seem to be achieving limited success.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 22:40

• After Olympics Scandal, Japan's Ruling Party Allows Women To Attend Top Board Meeting…So Long As They Stay Quiet
  After Olympics Scandal, Japan’s Ruling Party Allows Women To Attend Top Board Meeting…So Long As They Stay Quiet

  One week after the 83-year-old head of the Tokyo Olympics organizing committee resigned for saying women talk too much, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party – in almost continuous power since 1955 – has decided to allow more women present during its key meetings – as long as they don’t talk.

  

  Currently, just two of the party’s 12-member board are women, along with three of its 25-member general council. According to Reuters, the party has proposed allowing five female lawmakers to join its board meetings as observers in response to criticism that the body is dominated by men.

  The decision follows a request by female LDP lawmakers who asked Nikai to increase the ratio of women in key party posts.

  The proposal comes after sexist comments from former Tokyo Olympics chief Yoshiro Mori, himself an LDP member and a onetime prime minister, sparked a global outcry and renewed attention on gender disparity in the world’s third-largest economy.

  The move would allow more female LDP members to see how decisions were being made, said Toshihiro Nikai, the party’s 82-year-old secretary general. He said he had heard criticism the party’s elected board was dominated by men. –Reuters

  “It is important to fully understand what kind of discussions are happening,” Nikai said during a late-Tuesday news conference. “Take a look, is what it is about.”

  

  While the female observers will be required to keep their mouths shut, they will be able to separately submit opinions to the secretariat office, according to Nikkei.

  Japan, ranked 121st out of 154 countries on the World Economic Forum’s 2020 Global Gender Gap Index, has scored poorly on women’s participation in economics and political empowerment, despite former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s championing of a policy of “Womenomics” aimed at increasing female participation in the economy. Activists, however, say drastic change is still needed.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 22:20

• Is The Temporary Collapse Of Texas Foreshadowing The Total Collapse Of The US?
  Is The Temporary Collapse Of Texas Foreshadowing The Total Collapse Of The US?

  Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

  We are getting a very short preview of what will eventually happen to the United States as a whole.  America’s infrastructure is aging and crumbling.  Our power grids were never intended to support so many people, our water systems are a complete joke, and it has become utterly apparent that we would be completely lost if a major long-term national emergency ever struck.  Texas has immense wealth and vast energy resources, but now it is being called a “failed state”. 

  If it can’t even handle a few days of cold weather, what is the rest of America going to look like when things really start to get chaotic in this country?

  

  At this point, it has become clear that the power grid in Texas is in far worse shape than anyone ever imagined.  When extremely cold weather hit the state, demand for energy surged dramatically.  At the same time, about half of the wind turbines that Texas relies upon froze, and the rest of the system simply could not handle the massive increase in demand.

  Millions of Texans were without power for days, and hundreds of thousands are still without power as I write this article.

  And now we are learning that Texas was literally just moments away from “a catastrophic failure” that could have resulted in blackouts “for months”…

  Texas’ power grid was “seconds and minutes” away from a catastrophic failure that could have left Texans in the dark for months, officials with the entity that operates the grid said Thursday.

  As millions of customers throughout the state begin to have power restored after days of massive blackouts, officials with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, which operates the power grid that covers most of the state, said Texas was dangerously close to a worst-case scenario: uncontrolled blackouts across the state.

  I can’t even imagine how nightmarish things would have eventually gotten in Texas if there had actually been blackouts for months.

  According to one expert, the state really was right on the verge of a “worst case scenario”…

  The worst case scenario: Demand for power outstrips the supply of power generation available on the grid, causing equipment to catch fire, substations to blow and power lines to go down.

  If the grid had gone totally offline, the physical damage to power infrastructure from overwhelming the grid could have taken months to repair, said Bernadette Johnson, senior vice president of power and renewables at Enverus, an oil and gas software and information company headquartered in Austin.

  For years, I have been telling my readers that they have got to have a back up plan for power, because during a major emergency the grid can fail.

  And when it fails, it can literally cost some people their lives.  I was deeply saddened when I learned that one man in Texas actually froze to death sitting in his own recliner…

  As Texas suffered through days of power outages, a man reportedly froze to death in his recliner with his wife clinging to life beside him.

  The man was found dead in his Abilene home on Wednesday after being without power for several days in the record cold.

  Most Americans don’t realize that much of the rest of the world actually has much better power infrastructure than we do.  Just check out these numbers…

  In Japan, the average home sees only 4 minutes of power outages per year. In the American Midwest, the figure is 92 minutes per year. In the Northeast, it’s 214 minutes; all those figures cover only regular outages and not those caused by extreme weather or fires.

  As our population has grown and our infrastructure has aged, performance has just gotten worse and worse.  In fact, things ran much more smoothly all the way back in the mid-1980s…

  According to an analysis by Climate Central, major outages (affecting more than 50,000 homes or businesses) grew ten times more common from the mid-1980s to 2012. From 2003 to 2012, weather-related outages doubled. In a 2017 report, the American Society of Civil Engineers reported that there were 3,571 total outages in 2015, lasting 49 minutes on average. The U.S. Energy Administration reports that in 2016, the average utility customer had 1.3 power interruptions, and their total blackout time averaged four hours.

  America is literally crumbling all around us, and it getting worse with each passing year.

  Our water systems are another example.

  In Texas, the cold weather literally caused thousands of pipes to burst.  The damage caused by all of these ruined pipes is going to be in the billions of dollars.

  Right now, we are being told that a total of 797 water systems in the state are currently reporting problems with “frozen or broken pipes”…

  Some 13.5 million people are facing water disruptions with 797 water systems throughout the state reporting issues such as frozen or broken pipes, according to Toby Baker, executive director for the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. About 725 systems are under a boil water advisory, Baker said during a press conference Thursday.

  Overall, approximately 7 million residents of the state live in areas that have been ordered to boil water, and it could take months for service to fully return to normal.

  Without water, none of us can survive for long, and it is absolutely imperative that you have a back up plan in case your local system goes down.

  In Houston, people that are without water in their homes have been forced to line up to fill buckets at a public spigot…

  Meanwhile, in scenes reminiscent of a third world country, Houston residents resorted to filling up buckets of water from a spigot in a local neighborhood.

  One Houston resident, whose power has just gone back on Thursday after three days but still has no water, told DailyMail.com: ‘It is crazy that we just watched NASA land on Mars but here in Houston most of us still don’t have drinking water.’

  You can watch video of this happening right here.  Of course if your local water system completely fails, there won’t even be a public spigot available for you to get water.

  Shortages of food and other essential supplies are also being reported in Texas.

  For Philip Shelley and his young wife, the situation became quite desperate fairly rapidly…

  Philip Shelley, a resident of Fort Worth, told CNN that he, his wife Amber and 11-month-old daughter, Ava, were struggling to stay warm and fed. Amber is pregnant and due April 4.

  “(Ava) is down to half a can of formula,” Shelley said. “Stores are out if not extremely low on food. Most of our food in the refrigerator is spoiled. Freezer food is close to thawed but we have no way to heat it up.”

  So what would they have done if the blackouts had lasted for months?

  All over the state, extremely long lines have been forming at local supermarkets.  In some cases, people have started waiting way before the stores actually open…

  Joe Giovannoli, 29, arrived at a Central Market supermarket in Austin at 8:30 a.m. Thursday, an hour-and-a-half before it opened. Minutes later, more than 200 people had lined up behind him in the biting 26-degree weather.

  Giovannoli’s wife is three months pregnant and the power in their one-bedroom Austin apartment blinked out Tuesday night. After a water pipe broke, firefighters also turned off the building’s water, he said. Giovannoli said he realized he still had it better than many others across Texas, but worried how long things will take to get back to normal.

  This is happening in communities across Texas, and you can see video of one of these “bread lines” right here.

  Of course those that had gotten prepared in advance did not have to wait in such long lines because they already had food.

  Sadly, even though Joe Giovannoli had gotten to the supermarket so early, he later received really bad news…

  A few minutes before the store opened its doors, a manager stepped outside and warned those waiting in line that supplies inside were low: No produce, no baked goods, not much canned food.

  “We haven’t had a delivery in four days,” he said.

  Remember, this is just a temporary crisis in Texas that is only going to last for a few days.

  So what would happen if a severe long-term national emergency disrupted food, water and power systems for months on end?

  All it took to cause a short-term “collapse scenario” in the state of Texas was some cold weather.

  Eventually, much worse things will happen to our nation, and it has become clear that we are not ready.

  So get prepared while you still can, because time is running out.

  *  *  *

  Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 22:00

• "The Trans-Atlantic Alliance Is Back": Biden Vows To Defend "Democratic Progress" In 1st Address To Global Audience
  “The Trans-Atlantic Alliance Is Back”: Biden Vows To Defend “Democratic Progress” In 1st Address To Global Audience

  President Biden in remarks delivered virtually to the Munich Security Conference on Friday continued with his “America is back” theme, aimed as a critique of Trump’s “America First” message. Significantly it was the first major speech given before an international audience at an event attended by top global security officials and world leaders. On the same day he emphasized a similar ‘global partnerships’ thread in an address to G-7 leaders. 

  He didn’t specifically invoke Trump by name, but the implications were clear when Biden said before the Munich event, “America is back, the transatlantic alliance is back, and we are not looking backward. We are looking forward together.” And further at a moment when US-NATO relations are somewhat strained after four years of Trump hounding Europe to pull its weight in terms of defense spending, he called the European partnership “the cornerstone of all we hope to accomplish in the 21st century.” With this in mind, he was emphatic that: “The trans-Atlantic alliance is back.”

  “I know the past few years have strained and tested our transatlantic relationship, but the United States is determined — determined — to re-engage with Europe, to consult with you, to earn back our position of trust and leadership,” he said.

  

  He added later in the address: “I come to Europe on behalf of a new administration, and an administration that’s determined to set a new tone not only in Washington, but in America’s relations around the world.”

  He said in the speech that “democratic progress is under assault,” and urged that “We must demonstrate that democracies can still deliver for our people. That is our galvanizing mission.”

  “Let me erase any lingering doubt: the United States will work closely with our European partners.”

  Here’s how Bloomberg previewed and summarized Biden’s message to the world Friday:

  • Joe Biden is ditching the America First mentality in favor of global cooperation. In a politically risky reset effort, his administration said the U.S. is willing to meet with Iran over the nuclear deal that Donald Trump quit.
  • The reset may not pay off. Iran appeared to snub Biden’s offer to begin direct discussions before officially rejoining the accord. It wants the U.S. to return to the deal and lift sanctions before they talk.
  • Better luck elsewhere? The president will re-introduce the U.S. to world leaders in a pair of international conferences today, calling for partnerships in a sharp departure from his predecessor’s foreign policy.

  President Biden at the Munich Summit: “America is back. The transatlantic alliance is back. And we are not looking backwards, we are looking forward together.” pic.twitter.com/JR9kX6U1Yo

  — The Recount (@therecount) February 19, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  On Iran, Biden said at a moment Tehran has vowed to not reengage unless Washington provides sanctions relief first, “We’re prepared to reengage in negotiations with the P5+1 on Iran’s nuclear program.”

  “We must also address Iran’s destabilizing activities across the Middle East, and we’re going to work in close cooperation with our European and other partners as we proceed,” he added.

  He also took swipes at China and Russia over “autocratic” tendencies and rule. Especially of note is that while referring to Russia as a “bully” he said, “We are in the midst of a fundamental debate about the future direction of our world. Between those who argue that — given all of the challenges we face, from the fourth industrial revolution to a global pandemic — autocracy is the best way forward and those who understand that democracy is essential to meeting those challenges.”

  “Historians will examine and write about this moment. It’s an inflection point. And I believe with every ounce of my being that democracy must prevail.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 21:40

• China Invasion Of Taiwan Means War With US, Tom Cotton Argues
  China Invasion Of Taiwan Means War With US, Tom Cotton Argues

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) on Thursday called for a new US policy on what would happen in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Currently, the US arms Taiwan through weapons sales and maintains a policy known as “strategic ambiguity,” which means the US is not guaranteed to intervene if Beijing moves to take the island.

  Cotton said he wants to make it “crystal clear” that a Chinese incursion on Taiwan means war with the US. “The United States needs to be clear that we will not allow China to invade Taiwan and subjugate it. Case closed. No further debate,” he said at a Reagan Institute event.

  

  “Replace strategic ambiguity with strategic clarity that the United States will come to the aid of Taiwan if China was to forcefully invade Taiwan or otherwise change the status quo across the [Taiwan] Strait,” Cotton added.

  The hawkish senator said the US should establish “red lines” for China that would “require a response” from Washington. Examples of Cotton’s red lines include China seizing Taiwanese-claimed islands, a Chinese invasion of a regional ally like India, or if Beijing permits an attack on US troops or allies by North Korea.

  Cotton made the comments while he presented his plan to take on Beijing economically. In the plan, Cotton called for an economic decoupling from China. “Our economy has become far too entangled with China’s, providing the Chinese Communist Party with leverage over the US government and industry. It’s past time we decoupled from China,” he said.

  The Chinese Communist Party has lied, stolen, and killed its way to the top. America needs a plan to beat this new Evil Empire. Here are a few of my recommendations.https://t.co/Fnf9MnVjId

  — Tom Cotton (@SenTomCotton) February 18, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Cotton’s report came after the US Chamber of Commerce released a study that said the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would see a one-time loss of as much as $500 billion if US companies halved foreign direct investment in China.

  Besides the hit to the US’s GDP, decoupling with China would give Washington and Beijing less reason not to go to war if a naval incident happens in the South China Sea, where the US has stepped up its military presence and frequently sails warships.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 21:20

• Damascus Says Biden Is Setting Up New Bases On Sovereign Syrian Territory
  Damascus Says Biden Is Setting Up New Bases On Sovereign Syrian Territory

  Within the first few weeks of the Biden administration a handful of viral stories alleged there had been an immediate uptick in US convoys and logistical equipment headed into northeast Syria, which many took to reflect an escalation of the occupation under the new administration. However, given that most US action in Syria including troop movements and locations at any given moment are classified and done far away from ground-level media reporting, it’s almost impossible to verify whether such large convoys in and out of the country are part of ‘routine’ resupply missions or if they represent a broader build-up of forces.

  On the heels of the recent speculation and slightly increased or renewed public interest in Syria, there are fresh reports out this week that the Pentagon is actually constructing a new US base in northeast Hasakah. Significantly, this allegation is also being featured in Syrian state media. 

  

  Citing Syrian state sources in the middle of this week, for example, Middle East Monitor described that, “The US army began building a second base in the Al-Malikiyah region in the Syrian northeastern province of Hasakah, Syria’s SANA news agency reported.”

  According to further details offered by SANA:

  The agency quoted local sources as saying that over the past few days, US forces have deployed military reinforcements including 60 armored vehicles and army engineering vehicles to carry out excavation, leveling, and construction of barricades in the area, southwest of Ain Dewar in the border triangle between Syria, Iraq, and Turkey.

  At the end of last month, American forces began establishing a base near Tal Alu in the Al-Yarubiya area in Hasakah eastern countryside.

  Early this week the Saudi-funded, London-based newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat also wrote that a new base is being established in the US-occupied border region of Syria’s northeast:

  #US-led Int’l Coalition to Establish New Military Base at Iraq-#Syria-Turkey Triangle https://t.co/8JflPZw9B5

  — Asharq Al-Awsat English (@aawsat_eng) February 15, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The paper cited the anti-Assad opposition source SOHR:

  According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a military convoy of over 50 vehicles and trucks affiliated to the International Coalition were seen crossing into north-eastern Syria from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

  “Trucks, carrying armored vehicles, weapons, military, and logistical equipment, entered via Al-Walid border crossing with the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, heading towards Al-Qamishli area,” the Observatory reported.

  And crucially it emphasized the following: “This is the 11th Coalition convoy to enter Syria since the beginning of 2021.” 

  A Large US Military Convoy Rolled Into Syria On 1st Day Of Biden Presidency https://t.co/Y9e9lrA46j

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 23, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Of course, Damascus and its allies Russia and Iran have long been vocal in condemning the blatantly illegal occupation of a UN-member state’s sovereign territory.

  Whether the latest reported large convoys are in fact for the purpose erecting new bases or are perhaps just “routine” transports… it ultimately matters little to Syria and its allies. The American military presence remains an aggressive, illegal occupation nonetheless.

  

  In the scant foreign policy remarks given thus far since entering the White House, Biden has essentially glossed over Syria, instead focusing on places like Iran, China, and Russia. Amid the silence there’s a growing unease that the US is quietly building its presence there for something big yet to come, after Trump touted his “secure the oil” plan – the latter phraseology which the new administration has recently attempted to distance itself from.

  * * *

  To review the Syria quagmire and Washington’s long-running covert war aimed at regime change in Damascus, or essentially how we got here, see author Scott Horton’s analysis below (Warning: very graphic at 7:50 mark):

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 21:00

• Bill Gates Bankrolling Educational Organization That Says Math Is Racist
  Bill Gates Bankrolling Educational Organization That Says Math Is Racist

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is bankrolling an activist educational group that believes math is racist and that arriving at an objective answer is an example of “white supremacy.”

  

  Yes, really.

  A conglomerate of 25 educational organizations called A Pathway to Equitable Math Instruction asserts that asking students to find the correct answer is an “inherently racist practice.”

  The organization’s website lists the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation as its only donor.

  “In fact, over the past decade, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has awarded over of $140 million to a variety of groups associated with Pathway. Their “antiracist resources” are at the epicenter of a new training course for teachers offered by the Oregon Department of Education throughout the state,” reports National File.

  “Three of the most prominent organizations receiving grant money from the Gates’ are The Education Trust, Teach Plus, and WestEd, all non-profit 501c organizations.”

  Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is bankrolling a group of activists who believe math is racist. They chide the “concept of mathematics being purely objective” as “unequivocally false” & argue focusing on the “right answer” is an example of white supremacy. https://t.co/ZdTx7WXhDm

  — (((Jason Rantz))) on KTTH Radio (@jasonrantz) February 18, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  A guidebook for teachers produced by Pathway called ‘Dismantling Racism in Mathematics Instruction’ ludicrously claims that mathematics “is used to uphold capitalist, imperialist, and racist views.”

  Teachers are instructed to blame non-white students getting answers wrong on “white supremacist practices,” which are truly to blame for the “underachievement” of minorities.

  As we have previously highlighted, following on from universities, schools have now become breeding grounds for this kind of intersectional insanity.

  Earlier this week, we reported on how the principal of East Side Community School in New York sent white parents a manifesto that calls on them to become “white traitors” and advocate for full “white abolition.”

  Last year, we revealed how children at an elementary school in Virginia are being taught that traits such as “objectivity” and “perfectionism” are ‘racist’ characteristics of “white supremacy.”

  Meanwhile, school districts across America are eliminating grading standards in order to “combat racism”.

  The move was announced in San Diego after it was revealed that just 7% of D or F grades are handed out to white students, while 23% went to Native Americans, 23% of failing grades went to Hispanics and 20% went to black students.

  As Allie Beth Stuckley notes, “I don’t know. Maybe the people who don’t want black and brown kids to learn math correctly are the *actual* white supremacists.”

  I don’t know. Maybe the people who don’t want black and brown kids to learn math correctly are the *actual* white supremacists. https://t.co/q54VFP1bv8

  — Allie Beth Stuckey (@conservmillen) February 18, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  New limited edition merch now available! Click here. In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, I urgently need your financial support here.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 20:40

• Damaged Fukushima Reactors Leaking Coolant After Last Weekend's 7.3 Earthquake
  Damaged Fukushima Reactors Leaking Coolant After Last Weekend’s 7.3 Earthquake

  Two reactors at the wrecked Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan have begun leaking cooling water following last weekend’s 7.3 magnitude earthquake, indicating that the existing damage to TEPCO’s Unit 1 and 3 reactors has worsened, according to AP, citing spokesman Keisuke Matsuo.

  

  Matsuo said the cooling water level fell as much as 70 centimeters (27 inches) in the primary containment chamber of the Unit 1 reactor and about 30 centimeters (11 inches) in Unit 3. TEPCO wasn’t able to determine any decline in Unit 2 because indicators have been taken out to prepare for the removal of melted debris, it said.

  Increased leakage could require more cooling water to be pumped into the reactors, which would result in more contaminated water that is treated and stored in huge tanks at the plant. TEPCO says its storage capacity of 1.37 million tons will be full next summer. A government panel’s recommendation that it be gradually released into the sea has faced fierce opposition from local residents and a decision is still pending. -AP

  The leaking water is believed to have remained inside the reactor complex, as there is ‘no sign of any outside impact,’ according to Matsuo. 

  A powerful 9.1 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Fukushima in 2011, causing a tsunami which destroyed the plant’s exterior generators, causing three reactor cores to melt – dropping nuclear fuel to the bottom of their primary containment vessels and causing a massive explosion which spewed radioactive material as far as Idaho, where drinking water samples showed trace amounts of nuclear isotopes following the disaster.

  

  Since the incident, cooling water has been constantly leaking from the damaged primary containment vessels into the basements of the reactor buildings, requiring additional water to be pumped into the reactors to cool the melted fuel which remains inside of them. The recent drop, however, indicates that more water is leaking following the most recent earthquake, according to TEPCO, which initially reported no abnormalities.

  

  On Friday, the Tokyo High Court held that the government as well as TEPCO are responsible for the 2011 nuclear disaster, ordering that both pay 280 million yen ($2.6 million) in compensation to over 40 plaintiffs who were forced to evacuate Chiba, an outskirt of Tokyo. The decision reverses a previous ruling by the Chiba district court which exempted governments from liability.

  Judge Yukio Shirai, however, said that the government should have prepared for such a disaster following a long-term assessment of seismic activities conducted in 2002.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 20:20

• Biden's Coronavirus Relief Package Has Almost Nothing To Do With The Coronavirus
  Biden’s Coronavirus Relief Package Has Almost Nothing To Do With The Coronavirus

  Authored by Peter Suderman via reason.com (emphasis ours),

  Over and over again, President Joe Biden has pitched his $1.9 trillion stimulus plan as vital to restoring a struggling American economy and recovering from the pandemic. Many households are struggling, he tweeted earlier this month, with desperate Americans wondering how they are going to eat. “That’s why I’m urging Congress to pass the American Rescue Plan and deliver much-needed relief.” Time, he has insisted, is of the essence. “We don’t have a second to waste when it comes to delivering the American people the relief they desperately need. I’m calling on Congress to act quickly and pass the American Rescue Plan.”

  

  The fiscal response, he has argued, must be commensurate to the crisis at hand. “Now is the time we should be spending,” he said at a CNN town hall this week. “Now is the time to go big.” 

  Biden has certainly gone big. His $1.9 trillion deficit-funded plan would be among the largest stimulus/relief packages in history. But much of the spending he has proposed would do little or nothing to help actually struggling Americans. Instead, the plan is padded with non-urgent, pre-existing Democratic policy priorities that have, at most, only tangential relationship to the crisis at hand. 

  Take schooling, for example. The mass closure of schools has caused immeasurable chaos and frustration for families across the country, especially those with working parents, and it has set back educational advancement for children, especially in lower-income families with fewer resources or alternatives. Beyond the disruptions to family schedules and educational achievement, there is mounting evidence that school closures, in combination with other forms of isolation stemming from the pandemic, have taken a dark toll on student mental health. In the Las Vegas area, schools finally reopened following a rash of suicides in which 18 students took their own lives.

  Biden ran on reopening most schools for in-person instruction within a hundred days—a promise his administration has both walked back and then kinda-sorta attempted to un-walk back. But reopening, he has insisted, is conditioned on schools obtaining sufficient funding in a relief package. Accordingly, his plan includes about $128 billion for K-12 schooling “for preparation for, prevention of, and response to the coronavirus pandemic or for other uses allowed by other federal education programs,” as part of a $170 billion boost in education-related spending.

  This is a dubious argument on its face, considering that private schools have largely reopened, as have public schools in some states, such as Florida, that have pushed for faster and more widespread reopenings. 

  But even if you think substantial additional funding is strictly necessary for rapid reopening, there’s a problem: The vast majority of the relief plan’s money for schools wouldn’t be spent in the current fiscal year, or even next year. Previous coronavirus relief and congressional spending bills have already included more than $100 billion in funding for schools. But according to the Congressional Budget Office, “most of those funds remain to be spent.”

  As a result, just $6 billion would be spent in the 2021 fiscal year, which runs through September. Another $32 billion would be spent in 2022, and the rest by 2028. Biden is insisting that schools must reopen soon—and also that the only way for them to reopen is to authorize more than $120 billion in spending, most of which wouldn’t roll out for years. It doesn’t make much sense. 

  Similarly, Biden’s plan calls for $350 billion to backstop state budgets, which were projected to be down as much as 8 percent overall this year. Yet according to The Wall Street Journal, total revenues were down just 1.6 percent for the 2020 fiscal year, and 18 states ended the year with above-projection revenue. As Reason‘s Christian Britschgi noted last week, Biden’s plan would disburse money to every state—including California, which is set for a $15 billion surplus. Previous coronavirus relief bills, meanwhile, have already doled out $300 billion to bolster state budgets. The billions in extra funding Biden’s plan would deliver to soaring state budgets would, in all likelihood, not be spent this coming year. So much for not having a second to waste.

  There’s more like this peppered throughout Biden’s pandemic relief plan. Biden and his communications team raise the issue of food insecurity—then insist that checks should go to a two-earner family with stable jobs making $120,000 a year in a city with a roughly $40,000 annual median income for couples.

  This is despite the fact that the average couple with comparable six-figure earnings has experienced no unusual job loss and has piled up record levels of personal savings. Even if the goal is just to pump more money into the economy, these checks wouldn’t, for the most part, be spent. They’d just add to the savings. 

  As the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) notes, half the spending in the coronavirus relief plan would go toward such poorly targeted measures. The plan also includes expansions to Obamacare subsidies and would hike the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour—in 2025. Ultimately, the hike would cost jobs rather than preserve them. But raising the federal minimum wage has been a Democratic policy priority for years, so it got stuffed into the relief bill grab bag.

  How much of this alleged coronavirus relief plan is actually related to the coronavirus?  According to CRFB, just 1 percent of the relief plan’s spending would go toward vaccines, and just 5 percent would go toward pandemic-related public health needs. Meanwhile, 15 percent of the spending—about $300 billion—would be spent on long-standing policy priorities that are not directly related to the current crisis. 

  Biden keeps insisting that time is of the essence, that massive federal spending is urgently needed to speed America’s recovery from its coronavirus-induced health and economic downturn. But the practical details of his plan say otherwise. The president’s relief plan is an object lesson in non-urgent, non-vital policymaking. Biden is pitching a coronavirus relief package that has very little to do with coronavirus relief.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 20:00

• JPM Joins "Overheating" Bandwagon: Sees 6.4% GDP As Stimulus Forecast Doubles To $1.7TN
  JPM Joins “Overheating” Bandwagon: Sees 6.4% GDP As Stimulus Forecast Doubles To $1.7TN

  Just a week after Goldman unleashed a wave of worry about tighter financial conditions with its revised forecast boosting 2021 and 2022 GDP up by 0.2% each year, to 6.8% and 4.5%respectively, as a result of a far bigger stimulus than its had originally expected ($1.5 trillion vs $1.1 trillion originally), which set the US economy directly on collision course with overheating (and prompted Goldman to pull forward its first rate hike estimate to H1 2022), other banks have started jumping on the overheating bandwagon, and today JPMorgan became the latest bank to nearly double its Covid stimulus forecast, which led the bank to aggressively boost its 2021 and 2022 GDP estimates as well.

  In a note to clients, JPM’s chief economist Michael Feroli made the following forecast revisions:

  • We now look for a $1.7 trillion fiscal stimulus package (up from $900 billion) to be passed in March
  • Even before that kicks in, growth appears to be on firmer footing at the start of the year
  • All told we now expect 6.4% (4Q/4Q) GDP growth this year and 2.8% next year
  • We see the labor market getting back to full employment, or around 4% unemployment, by 2Q22…
  • …and expect core PCE inflation to reach 2.0% by 4Q22, with balanced risks around the outlook
  • While the outlooks for growth and inflation are moving up, Fed rhetoric appears to be getting more dovish

  Feroli first explains the reason behind his dramatic stimulus forecast revision:

  Shortly after the two Georgia Senate run-off elections in early January delivered effective control of that chamber to the Democratic Party we penciled in an assumption of another $900 billion of fiscal stimulus. This sought to balance the risk of a smaller amount reached through a bipartisan deal and a larger amount arrived at by the Democrats using the budget reconciliation process. Since then the odds of a bipartisan deal have diminished to near zero, and Congressional Democrats have pushed forward with a much larger package. Thus, we revise our outlook to incorporate a $1.7 trillion package to take effect in March.

  Needless to say, this will not ease overheating concerns, and as Feroli writes, “the larger stimulus package should meet an economy that is getting off to a better-than-expected start to the year. After a soft end to 2020, the economy appears to have shrugged off the latest wave of COVID-19 case counts (which are now rapidly declining). This week’s upside surprise on January retail sales leaves real consumer spending tracking around 5.0% annualized growth this quarter. Spending may stumble in February, partly due to weather conditions across the country, but we expect the stimulus package will support a rebound in consumer spending as early as March.”

  In sum, between the effect of the $900BN December stimulus and the upcoming $1.7 Trillion Biden stimulus, JPM “now expects real GDP growth at a 5.0% pace this quarter, and 6.4% (4Q/4Q) in 2021.“

  

  The soaring GDP will naturally help depress unemployment, and in JPM’s new forecast the unemployment rate reaches 4.0% by the middle of next year, which is also the bank’s estimate of the natural rate of unemployment.

  Hilarious, Feroli then says that in its “forecast the economy doesn’t overheat, in the sense of displaying significant, persistent,  above-2% inflation. The experience of the last expansion confirms model findings that it takes a fairly lengthy period of sustained tightness in resource utilization to shift the inflation trend. Even if there are slack resources this year, rapid growth could generate inflation if reallocation frictions cause supply bottlenecks.” 

  That said, even Feroli who clearly has a mandate to not spark further selling ahead of imminent rate hikes meant to cool off the overheating economy, says he thinks “the stimulus will foster heating, in the sense that it will help get the economy back to 2% inflation—a feat that just Fed forbearance on future rate hikes was much less likely to achieve.”

  Knowing that clients are laughing out loud at this point, Feroli spends some more digital ink trying to justify his naive assessment, and writes that while “It’s easy to tell a story that inflation will pick up significantly in coming quarters, it’s harder to model it.”

  Actually, no, Mike one trip to the supermarket should help you model everything you need. In any case, this is how he explains away the lack of soaring inflation on the back of trillions of stimulus spending and an overheating economy:

  What those models see is that over the last three decades inflation has been very well-anchored around its trend (or local mean). However, those models wouldn’t foresee a regime shift in fiscal or monetary policy. Perhaps that is underway: to account for this possibility we are leaning to the upside on our model output to get inflation to 2% by the end of next year. An upside risk is that a true regime shift would lead to a much larger move in inflation. A downside risk is that we are succumbing to the common forecasting error of base rate neglect. On net, we see balanced risks around our inflation outlook.

  Yeah, ok, we’ll check back in 6  months on this. But while Feroli is wrong on his inflation forecast, where he is right is in observing that while his growth and inflation forecasts have been moving up, “Fed rhetoric has been moving in a more dovish direction” and after the latest FOMC minutes he still sees tapering beginning in 1Q22, the same as Goldman. As for the first rate hike…

  While we now see inflation getting to 2% by the end of next year, we continue to think the Fed will want to see another year of inflation gradually moving above 2% before the first rate hike in 1H24.

  So three years at 0%… with real GDP and inflation likely hitting 5-6%? We make this rhetorical observation just in case there are still any questions why bitcoin will soon hit $100,000.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 19:45

• First Spy Shots Of Hummer EV Pickup "Looks Like A Tank" 
  First Spy Shots Of Hummer EV Pickup “Looks Like A Tank” 

  Last year, we’ve covered GMC’s unveiling of the first-ever all-electric High Utility Maximum Mobility Easy Rider, otherwise known as Hummer (see: here & here). But only conceptual designs were released until now. 

  According to popular car website Carscoops, the battery-electric Hummer was spotted on public roads for the first time. This is the first real-world look at the reborn Hummer. 

  

  What is likely a test car, the new vehicle “features steel tube running boards to protect the huge rocker panels, redesigned door mirrors that look sleeker compared to the original show car, while it appears that the design of the rear control arms is also different,” said Carscoops.

  

  “The interior of the test cars remains under covers but our spy photographers were able to grab a few partial shots of the dashboard, which appears to be consistent with the show car’s cabin, which featured a 13.4-inch infotainment display, in addition to a 12.3-inch digital instrument cluster,” Carscoops continued.

  The first-ever GMC HUMMER EV is expected to pack 1,000 horsepower and rocket the vehicle from 0-60 mph in 3 seconds. The new electric vehicle range is expected to be around 350 miles. 

  

  Overall, Carscoops described GMC HUMMER EV as a “tank.” Production is expected this fall with a release in 2022.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 19:40

• Let's Review 50 Years Of Dire Climate Forecasts And What Actually Happened
  Let’s Review 50 Years Of Dire Climate Forecasts And What Actually Happened

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

  Here are 21 headlines from various news sources regarding dire climate predictions over the last 50 years. Many of the predictions are outrageously funny.

  

  Climate Forecast Headline Predictions

  1. 1967 Salt Lake Tribune: Dire Famine Forecast by 1975, Already Too Late

  2. 1969 NYT: “Unless we are extremely lucky, everyone will disappear in a cloud of blue steam in 20 years. The situation will get worse unless we change our behavior.“

  3. 1970 Boston Globe: Scientist Predicts New Ice Age by 21st Century said James P. Lodge, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. 

  4. 1971 Washington Post: Disastrous New Ice Age Coming says S.I. Rasool at NASA. 

  5. 1972 Brown University Letter to President Nixon: Warning on Global Cooling 

  6. 1974 The Guardian: Space Satellites Show Ice Age Coming Fast

  7. 1974 Time Magazine: Another Ice Age “Telling signs everywhere.  Since the 1940s mean global temperatures have dropped 2.7 degrees F.”

  8. 1974 “Ozone Depletion a Great Peril to Life” University of Michigan Scientist

  9. 1976 NYT The Cooling: University of Wisconsin climatologist Stephen Schneider laments about the “deaf ear his warnings received.”

  10. 1988 Agence France Press: Maldives will be Completely Under Water in 30 Years. 

  11. 1989 Associated Press: UN Official Says Rising Seas to ‘Obliterate Nations’ by 2000.

  12. 1989 Salon: New York City’s West Side Highway underwater by 2019 said Jim Hansen the scientist who lectured Congress in 1988 about the greenhouse effect.

  13. 2000 The Independent: “Snowfalls are a thing of the past. Our children will not know what snow is,” says senior climate researcher.

  14. 2004 The Guardian:  The Pentagon Tells Bush Climate Change Will Destroy Us. “Britain will be Siberian in less than 20 years,” the Pentagon told Bush.

  15. 2008 Associate Press: NASA Scientist says “We’re Toast. In 5-10 years the Arctic will be Ice Free”

  16. 2008 Al Gore: Al Gore warns of ice-free Arctic by 2013.

  17. 2009 The Independent: Prince Charles says Just 96 Months to Save the World. “The price of capitalism is too high.”

  18. 2009 The Independent: Gordon Brown says “We have fewer than 50 days  to save our planet from catastrophe.”

  19.  2013 The Guardian: The Arctic will be Ice Free in Two Years. “The release of a 50 gigaton of methane pulse” will destabilize the planet.

  20. 2013 The Guardian: US Navy Predicts Ice Free Arctic by 2016. “The US Navy’s department of Oceanography uses complex modeling to makes its forecast more accurate than others.

  21. 2014 John Kerry: “We have 500 days to Avoid Climate Chaos” discussed Sec of State John Kerry and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabious at a joint meeting.

  The above items are thanks to 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions.

  The article has actual news clips and links to everyone of the above stories.

  What Happened to the Glaciers?

  On January 17, 2020 Montana Public Radio reported Scientists Predicted Glacier Park’s Glaciers Would Be Gone By Now. What Happened?

  Last week, Glacier National Park announced that it will be changing signs warning that its signature glaciers would disappear by 2020. The park says the signs, put in more than a decade ago, were based on the best available predictions at the time.

  In terms of the predictions, the latest that I’ve seen actually comes from a group of Swiss researchers. So I would have to look at their results in more detail than is possible from looking at the paper they published to be able to say definitively when all the glaciers are are hosed and no longer present, but certainly by 2100.

  New Predictions and Stories 

  • February 2021: “It’s long past time for the Senate to take a leading role in combating the existential threat of our time: climate,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

  • January 2019: Ocasio-Cortez Says World Will End in 12 Years: Here’s What to Do About It.

  Ocasio-Cortez called the fight to mitigate the effects of climate change her generation’s “World War II.” 

  “Millennials and Gen Z and all these folks that come after us are looking up, and we’re like, ‘The world is going to end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change, and your biggest issue is how are we gonna pay for it?’ ” she said.

  OAC then blasted the GOP for taking her doomsday prediction literally. 

  We have had 50 years of this kind of BS and yes, many people do take it literally.

  On February 7 2020, she unleashed her Stunningly Absurd “New Green Deal” that suggests she was serious.

  1. Upgrade all existing buildings in the US

  2. 100% clean power

  3. Support family farms

  4. Universal access to healthy food

  5. Zero-emission vehicle infrastructure

  6. Remove greenhouse gasses form the atmosphere

  7. Eliminate unfair competition

  8. Affordable access to electricity

  9. Create high-quality union jobs that pay prevailing wages

  10. Guaranteeing a job with a family sustaining wage, adequate family and medical leave, paid vacations, and retirement security to all people of the United States

  More $90 Trillion Solutions

  In 2015, Business Insider noted A Plan Is Floating Around Davos To Spend $90 Trillion Redesigning All The Cities So They Don’t Need Cars

  The $90 trillion proposal came from former US vice president Al Gore, former president of Mexico Felipe Calderon, and their colleagues on The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. 

  Where is the CO2 Coming From?

  

  CO2 Stats

  • Please note that the US reduced its carbon footprint from 6.13 billion tons in 2007 to 5.28 billion tons in 2019.

  • Meanwhile, China increased its footprint from 6.86 billion tons in 2019 to 10.17 billion tons in 2019.

  • In the same timeframe, global output rose from 31.29 billion tons to 36.44 billion tons.

  • In 2007, the US accounted for 19.6% of the total global carbon footprint.

  • In 2019, the US accounted for only 14.5% of the total global footprint.

  Key Questions

  1. How much money are we willing to spend to reduce our 14.5% and falling percentage of carbon emissions?

  2. What would it cost to cut that by half in 10 years?

  3. Assuming we could cut that in half in 10 years, what would it do to total carbon output?

  4. By what force do we get China, India, and all the developing economies in the Mideast and Africa to reduce their carbon output?

  5. Assuming we achieve number 4 peacefully by some sort of economic buyout like cap-and-trade what is the cost to the US?

  6. What about inflation?

  7. Sure, China is producing goods for the US and EU but do we want that to stop? When? Why? How? Cost?

  8. Does not China, India, Africa, etc., have the right to improve their standards of living?

  9. What do the above points imply about the US standard of living?

  10. How the hell do we pay for this?

  Looking ahead over the next 100 years, the US is a minor part of the carbon problem.

  Bonus Geopolitical Q&A

  Q: What happened when Merkel went along with the Greens and did away with nuclear?
  A: Germany imports more coal-based energy from neighboring states and is more dependent on Russia for natural gas.

  Q: Is wind and solar ever going to make a serious dent in China’s growing energy demands.
  A: No

  Q: What happened in France when Macron pushed through a gas tax to support the Green movement?
  A: How quick we forget the Yellow-Vest Revolt that went on for months.

  I have yet to see AOC, John Kerry, any Mish reader, or anyone else address any of the above questions in detail.

  Final Questions to All Those Demanding Government Do Something

  What the hell are you doing?

  The #1 thing someone can proactively do eliminate their carbon footprint is to stop breathing.

  Since that seems a bit impractical, the #2 thing someone can do is not have kids.

  Instead, most demand the government do something. What?

  Until someone can put a realistic price on this while addressing my questions, forgive me for not agreeing that a total rise in the ocean of 3 inches in the last 20 years is the existential threat of our time.

  Politicians Will Not Solve the Problem

  Climate change is ongoing for hundreds of millions of years.

  I never said otherwise.

  I do question the extreme emphasis on CO2, noting lies, coverups, and insane hype.

  What I am sure of:

  Politicians like AOC, Al Gore, John Kerry are hucksters incapable of solving anything. https://t.co/7rUsUcoLW7

  — Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) February 17, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Clean Energy

  I am a big fan of natural gas and believe it is clean energy. The byproduct of burning natural gas is carbon dioxide and water.

  Neither is a pollutant in any way shape or form. Plants even need carbon dioxide to survive.

  Coal is another matter.

  Burning coal releases SO2 and NOx pollutants that cause Acid Rain, huge respiratory problems and will devastate forests.

  If the atmosphere is polluted with sulfur dioxide (SO2) or nitrogen oxides (NOx), rain becomes oxidized by ozone (O3) or hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) to form H2SO4 or HNO3 before falling to the ground. They are known respectively as sulfuric and nitric acid.

  Acid rain will dissolve panty hose on the spot.

  There is a huge difference between burning coal and burning natural gas.

  Anti-Coal, Pro-Natural Gas

  For environmental reasons, I am anti-coal but very much in favor of Natural Gas. And that has been my position forever. 

  I am totally fine with eliminating coal for environmental reasons but to expect China to be 100% wind and solar is nonsense. 

  There is no reason for Germany to abandon nuclear power and the results have been anything but green.

  Libertarian Philosophy

  Many of my readers blame me and Libertarians in general. They understand neither.

  As noted above I am anti-coal. Why? It pollutes with SO2 and NOx causing acid, respiratory illnesses, and it kills fish.  

  I have seen too many environmental cleanups. I have never commented on this before but my degree at the University of Illinois was in Environmental Engineering.

  I have bashed China’s air and water pollution consistently for decades. I have bashed Germany’s diesel industry consistently too. 

  Doing nothing about actual poison and doing nothing about CO2 are two very different things. 

  There is nothing Libertarian about letting companies pollute then walk away in bankruptcy. 

  One clever reader researched my coal and water pollution stance and noted I said the same things in 2006. Indeed I did. 

  My position has been consistent.

  Don’t Accept 100% of the Climate Change Story and You Get Labeled a Racist

  There we numerous global cooling warnings in the 60s and 70s and that is what we were taught in school. I did not believe the hype then, and I do not believe the hype now.

  The scientific consensus when I was in grade school was the threat of global cooling.

  Teachers discussed plans to dump charcoal on the ice to warm the earth as a solution. https://t.co/vwqVwphF4e

  — Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) February 17, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Point any of this out and guess what happens: You Get Labeled a Racist, as I did.

  I am grateful that 50 years of sensational headline now look laughable, but they keep coming and coming.

  Why should anyone take these models seriously? 

  No Wonder People Don’t Believe the Hype

  How many times did we hear the arctic ice would all be gone by now? That Miami if not all of Florida would be underwater? 

  Flashback 2010: The glaciers will all disappear by 2020. Now the best estimate is another 80 years. 

  Flashback 1989: UN Official Says Rising Seas to ‘Obliterate Nations’ by 2000. What a hoot.

  Flashback 2009: Gordon Brown UK Chancellor of the Exchequer says “We have fewer than 50 days to save our planet from catastrophe.” Hmm. Have 50 days passed? 

  Flashback 1969: “Everyone will disappear in a cloud of blue steam in 20 years. The situation will get worse unless we change our behavior.“

  That’s my favorite.

  A Word About Predictions and Urgency

  Believe in man-made climate change all you want. There is some truth to it although the models have not been remotely accurate to say the least.

  After 50 years of nonsense hype, it’s no wonder anyone with a modicum of common sense is more than a bit skeptical of these dire predictions and the alleged urgency to do something immediately about them.

  If after all these now laughable headlines, you still have faith in the predictions, why? 

  And if you don’t believe the predictions, then do you still want to spend $90 trillion to solve the alleged problem?

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 19:20

• China Keeping Rare Earth Export Ban In "Back Pocket" To Punish Biden If He Gets Out Of Line
  China Keeping Rare Earth Export Ban In “Back Pocket” To Punish Biden If He Gets Out Of Line

  For the second time this week, western, English-language media outlets are reporting about rumblings within the Chinese Communist Party leadership about imposing new export controls on so-called “rare-earth metals” The news, first reported earlier this week in the FT, could quickly hobble the US defense industry.

  

  While Bloomberg seemed to confirm the FT’s report about Beijing launching a “review” of its rare-earth export policies, the BBG reporters also took things a step further by suggesting that the Chinese government was merely trying to keep pressure on President Joe Biden now that ‘standing up to China’ has apparently become a bipartisan issue in the US.

  While China has no plans to restrict shipments of rare earths to the U.S., it is keeping the plan in its back pocket should a trade war break out again, the person said. The Asian nation is also exploring a ban on rare earths as part of its sanctions on some individual companies, including Lockheed Martin Corp., which violated China’s core interest over arms sale to Taiwan, the person said.

  All of this comes after Beijing reportedly readied a plan to restrict exports of the metals to the US back in 2019, when the US and China were still dealing with the fallout from Trump’s trade war.

  To be sure, Beijing has already tried weaponizing rare earths when it slapped US defense contractor Lockheed Martin with sanctions.

  China controls most of the world’s mined output from the broad group of 17 elements that are used in everything from smartphones to fighter jets, and has a complete stranglehold over processing.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  China’s dominance leaves the US with pretty much no alternatives to make up for the shortfall in supply, which would likely cause prices of these metals to skyrocket.

  overseas industries with few avenues to immediately secure supply if curbs were to be put in place, since the US imports 80% of its rare earth supply from abroad.

  Former President Donald Trump, of course, tried to rectify this terrible vulnerability with an executive order aiming to ramp up domestic production and processing, though presently the US remains entirely dependent, pretty much, on China for these metals.

  Still, there’s reason for the US to take precautions against China imposing rare earth ‘restrictions’. After all, China didn’t hesitate to use rare earths as leverage during a territorial dispute with Japan back in 2011 – it imposed an export embargo, causing prices to skyrocket – when the two countries were fighting over some rocky islands in the Pacific.

  And with Beijing’s crackdowns on Hong Kong and aggressive rhetoric (and, increasingly, actions) toward Taiwan grow increasingly emboldened, there may come a day when push comes to shove for Biden. And without another source for these metals, it could unleash a world of economic pain.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 19:00

• This Diary From The Great Depression Is Like Reading A Modern-Day Newsfeed
  This Diary From The Great Depression Is Like Reading A Modern-Day Newsfeed

  Authored by Fabian Ommar via The Orgnaic Prepper blog,

  During times like these, keeping close tabs on events unfolding is critical. It’s always more productive for the pragmatic, though, to be aware and knowledgeable about such events’ developments.

  One of the best ways to do so is by learning from history. For the most part, natural events are unpredictable, random in impact and reach, and localized. Economic collapses, on the other hand, follow a more cyclical dynamic and have all-embracing consequences.

  Because consumption, finance, and economy are in great part determined by psychology and behavior (mainly fear and greed), and because humankind always reacts the same to abundance and scarcity, history tends to repeat itself with reasonable consistency and similarity in these areas.

  Even though crashes can’t be forecast with accuracy, brewing crises always send warning signs frequently early on. Perhaps even more important (and useful for us), its consequences are well studied and vastly documented.

  The current crisis is being compared to The Great Depression of the 1930’s

  But how these SHTFs compare away from charts and figures, more close to society and people’s lives? Are contemporary fears and (apparently insurmountable) matters of monumental debts, hyperinflation risk, social fragmentation, political animosity, government intervention, and widespread conflicts genuinely unprecedented? 

  I looked at a few excerpts from “The Great Depression: A Diary” by Benjamin Roth to find out. It’s a personal yet surprisingly dispassionate account of the darkest years of the1930’s big slump, right after the stock market crash of 1929. Written 90 years ago in journal format as events were unfolding, without hindsight or historical distancing. It is a candid and powerful documentation of the depression zeitgeist.

  Benjamin Roth was a young lawyer in Youngstown, OH, then an important steel production center of the flourishing Rust Belt. A common, middle-class professional and family man hit directly by the economic devastation, Roth was trying to understand and cope with the craziness going on. All that makes his observations very compelling and his narrations all the more relatable. 

  Reading through Roth’s diary feels like reading a tweet, blog, or newsfeed today.

  Anyone following today’s current events will be amazed at the similarities between that period and now regarding facts and events. But mostly as to how people felt and reacted to those. In that sense, Roth’s book won’t provide direct answers. But it’s filled with great insights and highly entertaining stories. 

  Likewise, the idea here is not to draw a detailed or factual comparison nor provide a more in-depth analysis. We live in a very different world. The economy is considerably bigger and orders of magnitude more complex, so things are not directly comparable. The excerpts only illustrate parallels and allow for observations, with emphasis on context and human behavior. Hopefully, this will inspire you to grab a copy. It’s great reading.

  It also provides a few important lessons to combat the anxiety caused by uncertainty

  Many people are battling the anxiety of not feeling better prepared for the evolving situation.

  One lesson is that, as the Stoics say, “This too shall pass.” Back then, the whole tribulation seemed to people like the end of times. This sentiment certainly got solidified further by WWII breaking out just a few years later. It sure feels like that today, too, with the endless cascade of bad news and looming threats all over.

  In that regard, and not making light of it (crises are a real catastrophe to many), the fact that we’re still here, in an even better situation than ever before in history, should be taken as a sign that we’re learning and improving, as species and civilization. That shows that it’s entirely possible to overcome significant hardships no matter how bad the present feels or how dark the future looks.

  Another lesson is that these ordeals take time to pass, and invariably the cost is brutal in various forms. It’s a huge ordeal spreading insecurity, pain, suffering, and causing loss to people, families, and businesses everywhere. (Not to mention that widespread instabilities increase the risk of authoritarianism, hot conflicts, and other worrying developments.) 

  

  Let’s see what the Great Depression of the 1930s and Mr. Benjamin Roth have to tell us

  (Note: The excerpts aren’t in chronological order).

   “January 18, 1933 – I am reading a book written by Claude Bowers entitled The Tragic Era. In it, he describes the panic of 1873 and I am amazed at the similarity to conditions today.”

  I couldn’t find a more fitting start than the author looking back to get some insights and answers to his difficulties. That is what we do. People get lost during these periods. It’s hard to know or be sure of much or interpret things correctly when we’re immersed in the chaos, dealing with hardships, changes, and turmoil almost daily.

  Takeaway: Looking at current events through the lenses of the past helps achieve a more balanced view. As I said, even though it doesn’t offer much relief in practical terms, it’s Diasomewhat comforting to know that we’ve been through this before many times and survived. Individuals and society.

   “August 14, 1932 – The movement back to the farm has grown stronger during the past two years until today it is almost an exodus from the city to the farm.”

  Whenever the economy dips, things start to degrade everywhere. But cities get hit harder and faster, making people flock to the country en masse. It’s a recurrent, global phenomenon, though more prevalent and visible in the U.S. and other highly-industrialized and urbanized nations. The reasons are various: spikes in homelessness and crime, tax hikes, diminishing job opportunities, dwindling entertainment, faltering public services. That, and a lot more, haunted the population back then as it does now. In our case, with the added effects of lockdowns, social distancing, and multiple restrictions.

  Takeaway: The pendulum is constantly swinging in this city-country movement, and it’s already bringing large-scale and far-reaching changes in lifestyle, the market, and infrastructure at both ends. Everyone must pay attention to these factors and prepare for, whether living in the city or country.

  “February 13, 1933 – I have done considerable reading about the depressions of 1837 and 1873 and, I am struck by the similarity to the present crisis. If history repeats itself, then we still have 2 or 3 years of bad times ahead of us.”

  The passage above is also about the repetition of situations and events and a warning to those who believe in silver bullets to solve complex issues. For instance, thinking a vaccine or monetary stimulus will make economic, societal, and geopolitical problems go away magically or in the short term. It won’t. In fact, those (as well as others) measures, chiefly ones coming from politics, organizations, and the ruling elites, could potentially trigger further events or have unintended consequences, becoming themselves sources of more unknown unknown”.

  Takeaway: How long this crisis will last is impossible to know for sure.” “If history repeat,” we may not even have seen the worse yet. There could be unexpected developments at any point. This next decade is promising to be, at the very least, highly volatile. Being prepared for a few more years of challenges and hardships ahead is a sensible strategy. Don’t expect things to go “back to normal.”

  “June 1, 1933 – In looking back over the 3 months since Roosevelt became President it seems that the U.S. has traveled a long way toward some form of socialism or managed economy.”

  The intervention in economy and finance took center stage during the 2020 presidential campaign and has been inspiring endless articles by economists and ‘‘experts” everywhere since, well, at least 2008. Today, a lot of people are afraid that the U.S. may turn into the Soviet Union. Or worse, Venezuela. Heck, I don’t live in the U.S., and I dread that myself! Judging by Benjamin Roth’s remarks, this sentiment was prevalent during the turbulent 1930s as well. 

  Takeaway: Once again, if history is any indication, despite the movement away from the free market, individualism and liberty, and the trend towards higher levels of intervention, collectivism, and safety, the U.S. should remain a free, capitalist nation. At least for the foreseeable future. Which doesn’t mean capitalism and democracy won’t undergo changes, possibly some big ones even. (Here’s more information on that topic.)Being on top of this is a way to keep up, or at least not get caught entirely off guard.

  “January 11, 1932 – The war between Japan and China drags along. Threats made by the U.S. are disregarded. Germany announces she cannot and will not pay further reparations and France threatens to collect by force what is coming to her.”

   “March 11, 1933 – Los Angeles district in California experiences 13 quakes yesterday. Almost as bad as San Francisco affair! Early reports indicate 150 dead; 2500 hurt; tremendous property loss.”

  These two entries only one year from each other remind us that multiple SHTFs can happen concomitantly. A grave economic depression was ravaging the world, and yet parallel disasters and conflicts kept taking place in the U.S. and everywhere else. Hitler became a dictator in military-building Germany. Countries were abandoning the gold standard. Revolutions were breaking out in France and Austria. The shadow of fascism and authoritarianism looming large over Europe and South America. And a lot more events that would change the world indelibly.

  Takeaway: Expect geopolitical instability to become even more of a thing soon regardless of the pandemic or crisis, or precisely as a direct result of those. Stay alert for movements and developments in military, trading, alliances. Nature won’t suspend its usual activities just because we’re already going through difficult times of our own cause, either. Be on the lookout for potential simultaneous SHTFs, always trying to imagine how those may impact your life.

  “January 6, 1933 – During the boom everybody piled up debts to a dizzy height (…) economists claim that either the debt will have to be cut down or money inflated.”

  Studying macroeconomics after the 2008 recession is what brought me into preparedness and survivalism. When I learned about countries’ surreal indebtedness, corporations, families, and individuals, I became worried. It’s a giant iceberg of over USD 250 trillion and growing. And that’s only the more visible part. Likewise, the U.S. (and worldwide) fast-growing deficit and sovereign debt post-WWI and during the depression was a worrying issue, which didn’t escape Roth’s attention.

  Takeaway: Debt and leverage have significantly fluctuated throughout history, in cycles between booms and busts, war and peace. That’s how things are. The reduction of indebtedness and cleaning of the system at such levels has rarely (if ever) been a smooth process. Something has to give. Get ready for volatility, inflation/deflation, melt-ups-and-downs, tax hikes, confiscations, poverty. And, of course, the accompanying gamut of social reflexes (unrest, protests, strikes, riots, etc.). All that can impact our lives.

  “September 1, 1932 – The stock market (…) tripled its value during August in one of the quickest climbs ever witnessed. I believe this also established a record. Nobody seems to know even yet why the stock market went up because business has gotten worse instead of better.”

  It seems the fabled V-shaped recovery and the absolute disconnect between the real economy and the stock market aren’t exactly unprecedented. Almost 90 years have passed since this entry. Yet, it could well have been written yesterday. Or any day since mid-2020, when the stock market rebounded from the March crash with intense vigor. Meanwhile, the real economy has gone from bad to worse, and some would say terminal. Businesses and jobs are still being wiped out in droves due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the faltering economy.

  Takeaway: Whatever happens, it’s reasonable to expect any real build back of the economy, production, and jobs should take some time, not to mention tremendous efforts and lots of sacrifices. And things will be a lot different too, an entirely new world for sure.

  “August 30, 1932 – It is interesting to note that during the first three years of depression a wave of bankruptcy swept out of existence most of the small independent merchants. Recently the movement has included large national chain stores.”

  Then as now: small businesses are always hit the hardest during significant slumps. The current devastation differs in a few ways from the 1930s, though. One is speed: it only took a few months since march 2020 to attain and even surpass the levels of bankruptcy and unemployment reached in the span of a few years during the Great Depression. The second is that we haven’t (yet?) seen larger movements, perhaps due to the massive support programs put in place by governments everywhere. It’s likely that without this much intervention, the wave of bankruptcy would have been, in fact, a monstrous tsunami.

  Takeaway: Not entering the merits of validity and/or efficacy of such measures (and potential side effects), an immutable law of the universe states that there’s no free lunch. Fiscal and monetary ‘‘stimulus”, forbearances, moratoriums, and government support have a price that’s piling up and will have to be paid at some point. Since debt, private and public, can only be paid, rolled, deflated, or defaulted, whatever happens, will have its own set of consequences and ripples. Staying informed about the economy, increasing knowledge about finance, building reserves, and investing in some insurance against inflation may be ways to stay prepared.

  “August 3, 1933 – Since Roosevelt became President a war-time hysteria of public opinion has been created which makes it unpopular to criticize what he does. Even newspaper editorials have unanimously supported him so and refrained from honest criticism.”

  Now as then. Unsurprisingly, political divisiveness was an issue during the Great Depression. Unsurprisingly, it is now, too. At times it seems both sides have irreconcilable agendas and insurmountable differences; that only the complete destruction of the opponent (either through political, social, or economic persecution/destruction, or de facto by civil war) can bring resolution to a deadlock. Apparently, the press (M.S.M.) siding with this or that party, candidate, or agenda was a thing back then, too. For obvious reasons, Big Tech, social media, and cancel culture are unprecedented.

  Takeaway: As much as divisiveness and radicalism spread and deepens, and politics, debates, and narratives look like a dead-end, these can dwarf in the face of weightier, real, practical, more immediate, or urgent matters. If that happens, society will have to sit down and talk or start rowing in the same direction together. Looking back in history, this seems to be an American characteristic (though not uncommon in other countries and populations). Perhaps we haven’t reached this point yet. But knowing it has happened before, it’s possible (likely?) people will opt for a common way out. Let’s just hope it’s a pacific and productive exit, not a belligerent and destructive one.

  “March 5, 1934 – Roosevelt is as popular today as a year ago. His following with the working class is tremendous. It seems he and the Democrats will be in power for some time. Socialism is now accepted calmly by ministers, professors, etc. and it is amazing to me to see how calmly most people accept drastic government regulation.”

  Hold your horses: this is not about Democrats or Republicans, but rather bigger government, centralization, intervention, and regulation becoming more or less accepted in one period or another. When things get hard, larger portions of the population will long for (and depend on) assistance. Whether or not that is a good, useful, or otherwise, policy is beyond the present scope. That’s just how things are. Back then, Benjamin Roth and many others were certain that America was headed to communism and doom. As bad as things may have been (and it sure was terrible), it’s clear now that the U.S. didn’t even come close to actual socialism. But for a nation that epitomizes capitalism like no other, the feeling (and fear) is totally understandable. 

  Takeaway: As we know, America (and capitalism) came out stronger, though not without lots of suffering for a large percentage of the population. Is America on the verge of socialism once again? It looks like, yes. Will it become this time? Impossible to say. Have we seen this before? Absolutely, and not just once. So, what’s the point? Perhaps none: the future is not written. But the past always offers a lesson: change and evolution don’t come free or without pain. Whatever happens, there will be a cost. But it’ll pass. And therein lies a point: since we can’t avoid SHTF, the question is to prepare for difficult times and survive until things get better again, plowing ahead.

  Conclusion (with a caveat): This isn’t an exercise in futurology, just food for thought.

  “History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” – Mark Twain

  In that sense, I find it necessary to conclude by pointing a few significant differences between the period narrated in Benjamin Roth’s diary and today. They may or may not affect specific events during the unfolding of the current crisis. But may have enough gravity to them to potentially change the outcome and reshape the world going ahead.  

  The reversal of roles

  Back in the early 20th century, U.S. was a booming, production-based economy, the biggest creditor in the world thanks in great part to money lent during WWI.” “Made in the U.S.A.” was a valuable slogan and motive of pride. Today, about 70% of the private U.S. economy is based on services and consumption, mostly of imported goods. The American production has been almost entirely exported to Asia and other countries, with China being the largest U.S. supplier and its principal creditor. 

  Trading deficits are mounting. The Debt-to-GDP ratio has soared to 130% and is growing fast. Since the U.S. is the largest economy globally, this turned it into the biggest world debtor. But the USD remains the reserve currency, and the U.S. still holds the biggest military power. That may take some time to change, even if no reaction is put in place, which is unlikely if we take history as an indication. (Again, hopefully, a peaceful response, for the good of everyone).

  The COVID-19 pandemic 

  Another big difference between the 1930s and today is the pandemic and the subsequent set of bamboozled responses by authorities everywhere. When the crash of 1929 hit, the world had rid of the Spanish Flu for over a decade. Nowadays, we still have COVID-19 wreaking havoc on the economy and everyone’s lives. There’s no telling whether it will mutate or vanish, whether vaccines will work, or whether elites and politics will use the virus, cure, and prevention to impose even more restrictions on production, work, traveling, commerce, entertainment, and freedom. The reality is that COVID-19 is a significant factor now and should remain one for at least a few years ahead.

  War risks

  Between 1934-36 the world was exiting The Great Depression. Shortly after Europe was engulfed in WWII.” “War is all hell,” as defined by Gen. Willian Tecumseh Sherman during the Civil War. But it has an undeniable impact on the production and economy of all countries, involved or not. The effect of more activities and trading in demographics helped the entire world, mostly the U.S., to get out of the hole a few times throughout history. That makes some political parties and elites (not to mention the military) quite fond of armed conflicts, unfortunately. Whether a war is in the cards or not, and to what extent (can be a currency or trade war, hot war, cyberwar, local or widespread conflict) remains to be seen. These things happen. 

  Technological advancements

  Technology is always viewed paradoxically as both salvation and doom: it brings conflicting feelings of admiration, fear, hope, and despair. There’s currently a host of new tech evolving at a dizzying pace: A.I., Big Data, 5G, advanced mass surveillance, crypto, blockchain, bio, Taas, electric vehicles, interplanetary rockets, etc. Collectively, this is being touted as The Next Renaissance. It’s also being called a potential threat to freedom, the environment, humankind, and life in general. While technology cannot be discarded, it must be noted that technological development is a constant. Meaning, every age has it playing a part in events. The early 20th century, for instance, had its own set of technological threats. Just as the Industrial Revolution had before. It repeats throughout history, and the most important is, it can’t be stopped. Keeping up is optional, of course. But avoiding or escaping its effects is not.

  Finally, there isn’t much we can do against these greater forces and historical movements. But individually, we can keep doing our best, keep ourselves informed, in good shape (physically and mentally), and prepared as much as possible.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 18:40

• Tesla Finishes Near Dead Last In 2021 J.D. Power Dependability Survey
  Tesla Finishes Near Dead Last In 2021 J.D. Power Dependability Survey

  As Model S and Model X vehicles (and even some Model 3s) age further with each day, we’re guessing there are going to be an awful lot of stories about the quality of Tesla vehicles deteriorating as they get older. That’s because, as we have noted several times (here and here), Teslas don’t exactly seem like they are top quality the day they roll off the line.

  And it appears J.D. Power agrees with us – the American data analytics and consumer intelligence company placed Tesla 30th out of 33 manufacturers in its most recent Vehicle Dependability Survey. 

  The survey looked at 177 specific problems in 8 categories, the report says. This includes “powertrain, exterior flaws, and HVAC issues” among other issues. The 2021 study looks at the 2018 model year. Tesla was fourth from the bottom of the list, averaging 176 issues per 100 vehicles. 

  

  “The automaker is not officially ranked among other brands in the study because it doesn’t meet the ranking criteria. Unlike other manufacturers, Tesla doesn’t grant J.D. Power permission to survey its owners in 15 states where it is required. However, Tesla’s score was calculated based on a robust sample of surveys from owners in the other 35 states,” J.D. Power’s press releases read. 

  Back in 2020, Tesla also posted abysmal scores in the U.S. Initial Quality Study. The brand scored an abysmal 250 in 2020, placing it below literally dozens of other manufacturers, including names like Land Rover and Audi, in terms of reliability.

  The U.S. Initial Quality Study has been put out annually for the last 34 years and works by asking buyers of new cars of the current model year what problems they have had within the first 90 days of owning a vehicle. The score is based on the number of problems experienced within those 90 days per 100 vehicles. 

  

  Recall, we also pointed out hours ago that Tesla was once again slashing prices internationally, marking the 13th time this year that the company has tried to stoke demand by lowering prices. 

  “The base price of the standard model was cut to 4.29 million yen ($40,500) from 5.11 million yen on Thursday, while the long-range version saw an even steeper drop of 1.56 million yen to 4.99 million yen. The performance sedan remained at 7.17 million yen,” according to Automotive News. 

  

  Takeshi Miyao, an analyst at consulting firm Carnorama in Tokyo, told Automotive News that the cut “should have a positive impact on sales”.

  We have an idea: now that you’ve got a nearly $1 trillion market cap, why not focus on just making quality vehicles?

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 02/19/2021 – 18:20

Digest powered by RSS Digest