- Solar Grade Polysilicon Prices Crash Amid Global Supply Glut
Solar Grade Polysilicon Prices Crash Amid Global Supply Glut
Spot prices for the main ingredient in solar photovoltaic systems are crashing hard and fast, fueled by a glut in China’s solar panel supply chain. Some companies manufacturing polysilicon make solar panels at a loss, while others have shuttered production.
Bloomberg data shows the average price of solar silicon plunged 22% from last week to $9.6 per kilogram, hitting levels not seen since the summer of 2020. Prices peaked on June 2022 at $39 and have since plunged 75.5%.
The main reason for the plunge is “polysilicon production far exceeds expected global installation,” according to BloombergNEF.
Data from PV Infolink shows silicon prices fell even lower, to as low as $7.5 per kilogram. Some manufacturers are dumping polysilicon on the market to shed inventory amid a worsening glut.
Some manufacturers, such as Daqo New Energy Corp., need $7.55 per kilogram to break even. Bloomberg quoted China Silicon Industry Association, who said, “Several factories have suspended production to avoid selling at a loss.”
Citigroup wrote in a note to clients that polysilicon prices are near the industry’s average production cost after a year of declines, adding the price correction is due to increasing new capacity by most of the world’s top producers.
Citigroup analyst Pierre Lau noted that wafer, cell, and module market prices also declined, through the lower polysilicon costs, while solar glass prices were flat.
He pointed out three polysilicon producers have suspended production due to low prices, and the timeline to restart still needs to be clarified.
BloombergNEF expects polysilicon prices to stabilize in 3Q as production shutdowns will help alleviate supply.
Production has finally outpaced increasing demand as a polysilicon glut may cool solar panel prices that jumped during Covid.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/20/2023 – 02:45 - 'No Chance' Of Extending Grain Deal, Set To Expire In July: Kremlin
‘No Chance’ Of Extending Grain Deal, Set To Expire In July: Kremlin
Last week Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated why he is dissatisfied with the UN-brokered grain deal as it’s being implemented in practice. “Probably, for the guys who are fighting, it’s not clear why we are letting the grain through. I understand,” Putin told journalists while explaining that the deal asymmetrically benefits Ukraine and its ability to keep selling primarily to Europe. “We do it not for Ukraine, but for the friendly countries in Africa and Latin America. Because grain should go first and foremost to the poorest countries in the world.” He additionally said last Friday, “the supply of Ukrainian grain to world markets doesn’t solve the problems of African countries in need of food.”
In new comments, Putin’s press spokesman Dmitry Peskov followed up on Sunday by saying at this point the deal which allowed Ukrainian grain to be exported through the Black Sea has “no chance” of being extended.
He asserted that Russia has “shown goodwill several times, made concessions” and allowed the agreement to be extended. But what Moscow was promised in return still hasn’t been fulfilled, said Peskov.
AFP via Getty Images “It’s hardly possible to predict some sort of a final decision here, but we can only state that – judging de facto by the status that we now have – this deal has no chance,” he said according to state media.
“The deal implies deeds; deeds on the part of the contracting states or organizations. And one part of this deal was done, and the second part, which related to [promises made to] Russia, was never done,” he continued.
The current extension of the deal is set to expire in just under a month, on July 17.
The UN/Turkey-brokered grain deal’s collapse would have immediate impact on the food security of literally tens of millions of people globally, but most especially in already struggling regions of North Africa and the Middle East. The UN has described the Black Sea Grain Initiative as “critical” to helping “stave off famine.”
But Putin’s complaint all along has been that grain hasn’t ultimately been going to regions most in need (in Africa and Middle East), but instead has been shipped to wealthier countries in Europe.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/20/2023 – 02:00 - Are You A Conspiracy Theorist?
Are You A Conspiracy Theorist?
Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Are you a conspiracy theorist? If you are thoughtful and interested in public affairs, the media will say you are. And they will smear and dismiss you for it.
Dr. Anthony Fauci covers his face while President Trump talks during a coronavirus briefing. (White House/Screenshot) For more than half a century, certainly since the Kennedy assassination, anyone who notices patterns and missing pieces in public life, and attempts a possible explanation that suggests cover-ups or other nefarious dealing, is denounced as a “conspiracy theorist” and hence self-evidently wrong and probably crazy.
The trouble is that it is very difficult to make sense of public life today without some degree of speculation based on morsels of evidence. That’s because so much of the truth of things is hidden behind security walls.
Anyone who thinks the public has not been hoodwinked by some very powerful people is hopelessly naïve or not paying any attention. The sheer number of once-trusted institutions and individuals who have betrayed us is beyond belief. And this is true for a vast range of issues from war to economics to public health to academia and medicine generally.
In the case of COVID—by which I mean not the virus but the “whole-of-society” response—the rule-making power was transferred from public health to the intelligence community on March 13, 2020, with the emergency declaration. This is not a speculation. We have all the documents. Upon release, they were marked confidential.
It was a remarkable shift in the American system, away from representative democracy and toward rule by administrative bureaucracies. Those are the people who closed your churches and schools. They did it without a vote or polls. They somehow gained the power to do it while bypassing every institution of consent.
This wrapped the whole of the biggest mass attack on liberty in living memory in a blanket of secrecy. Even now, people are afraid to talk. You hear things but usually second-hand. The sources close to the operation keep everything under wraps because that is what they agreed to do. They live with this burden even now.
Yes, many secrets. There are still so many questions. And people are left to speculate. Was there one big plot or thousands and millions of little plots? Was this all directed toward an intended nefarious end (as so many say) or did it work more like an Ouija board, with no one in particular moving the planchette but rather reflecting the mind of the group?
Look at the word conspiracy itself. It derives from the Latin for breathe. It means to breathe together. Other words based on the same root are inspire (taking breath in, as if from God), aspire (to breathe upon with hope), and expire (to stop breathing).
To conspire doesn’t necessarily mean plotting. Or planning. Or scheming. It doesn’t even have to be driven by ill intent. It only means that the actors in the action know what it is they are supposed to do, as if breathing. They know their interests and can anticipate the actions of others without asking or being told. They gauge their own actions to coordinate with others.
In that sense, there doesn’t need to be a plot for there to be a conspiracy. There are certain things you know for sure. If tonight I attended a high-end cocktail party at an exclusive Boston country club, I know for sure that a way to scandalize the guests would be to express disgust at Pride Month. Doing that would cause people to avoid me for the duration and never be invited back. The topic doesn’t even need to come up at all. I can make a reasonable assumption—without knowing any other facts—that the people at this event are all tacitly on board with Pride Month. It’s a given. Is it a conspiracy? In a literal sense, yes.
To have a conspiracy theory is simply to speculate as to the reasons for the coordination. The theory does not have to point to a plan but rather map out the coordination of interests toward a goal. That’s not disreputable. It’s simply a matter of being smart. It indicates that you have your eyes wide open and are curious for answers. You are merely trying to figure out how it is that people come to breathe together, seemingly acting with unity of intent.
For years I conducted a choir of a special sort. We sang entirely without accompaniment and from a repertoire from the 16th century in which the beat is implicit most of the time. That meant that counting and comprehending the tempo depended entirely on an internal sense of timing. It has to be shared among the entire group. It is conveyed by the conductor in part but only as a guide and not the beat itself.
Internalizing the tempo is a much bigger hurdle than the notes themselves. If you cannot get the beat, the music simply does not happen. That beat has to come from within.
I learned over time that when I was doing a clinic with a new choir that had never sung this type of repertoire, it was best to begin with tempo exercises. I would take at least 30 minutes helping people comprehend the tempo without any sound. It needs to be built into the heart and mind. It’s the only way that one can make sense of the entrances and exits section by section. If we couldn’t get this part right, the music would never come together.
Once it does come together, the conductor can eventually become superfluous. Ideally, by the time I finished the clinic, which usually lasted a day, we could sing several large pieces without any conductor at all. I only needed to start and stop the music. In professional choirs that specialize in this music, they do not even need that. They conduct themselves with looks and glances. That’s all they need. (If you are curious as to how this works, here is a fine example.)
An illustration drawn from the COVID years came from a Trump press conference in which Fauci was standing behind him. Trump was saying something particularly strange. Fauci strained to keep from laughing and so covered his face. Now, he is a man of some discipline. Why did he do this? It was a signal to his friends in the media, pharma, and the whole gang that he was not on board with the Trump administration. He was showing them that he can be counted on to manage a response contrary to what the president wanted.
In the same way, the CDC and FDA did not need to get together with Pfizer and Moderna to map out a plan. They all knew each others’ interests and could anticipate each others’ actions. They are part of the same tribe. And that tribe is based on experience and trust. It was the same with media and tech. They joined in based on interest and class rank. The signals and instructions don’t need to be written down or negotiated. They are in the air and discernible by the most minor signs all around us.
In that sense, they “breathed together” like a high-end professional choir. No percussionist is necessary because the beat is already known and understood by all the singers.
In the same way, we saw remarkable coordination between the federal government’s planning and that of the states. The public health departments are all on the same email chains and attend the same annual conventions. They know how each other thinks. They were all waiting for the great pandemic. They had gamed it all out many times in the past and for at least a decade and a half. The only question was when to begin the exercise in real time—the moment when the piece of music was to begin.
Vast resources are being expended today to document everything that was happening behind the scenes via emails, texts, classified documents, and much more. We are discovering remarkable truths. And yet, in the end, the real conspiracy is not something one can ever fully document. It happens as if by autopilot or magic as an extension of a shared culture, sociology, and interest. The power elite know what to believe and even what to do without the necessity of any external plotting or direction.
That’s how really effective conspiracies work.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 23:30 - 10 Very Important Questions That We Should All Be Asking Right Now
10 Very Important Questions That We Should All Be Asking Right Now
Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,
We live in a society where we have been trained not to ask the hard questions.
Instead, we are just supposed to relax and let others do our thinking for us. If you do insist on asking pesky questions, you are likely to be labeled a “conspiracy theorist” or something even worse. And even those labels are a form of control. Very few of us are eager to be labeled “one of those people”, and so most of us just go along with the program. You see, the truth is that those in power do not want us to be independent thinkers. They want us to be sheep. But the good news is that more people than ever are waking up to the fact that the elitists that are running things are rotten to the core.
There is so much going on in our world right now, and the pace of change just keeps getting faster and faster.
I tend to write a lot about our ongoing economic problems, but I am going to take a break from that today and focus on some of the other things that are happening. The following are 10 very important questions that I believe we should all be asking right now…
#1 Why is the mainstream media so quiet about the fact that Joe Biden and his family received tens of millions of dollars from foreign nationals in an influence-peddling scheme that went on for many years while Biden was vice-president…
James Comer expects to uncover $20-30 million in illicit payments made to the Biden Crime Family:
“This is going to be hard to Biden to explain, this is not going to go away, and I think eventually the mainstream media is going to start asking the real questions.”
#2 Who was behind the absolutely massive cyberattack that just hit U.S. government agencies?…
Several US federal government agencies have been hit in a global cyberattack that exploits a vulnerability in widely used software, according to a top US cybersecurity agency.
The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency “is providing support to several federal agencies that have experienced intrusions affecting their MOVEit applications,” Eric Goldstein, the agency’s executive assistant director for cybersecurity, said in a statement on Thursday to CNN, referring to the software impacted. “We are working urgently to understand impacts and ensure timely remediation.”
#3 Should we be concerned that hail “the size of baseballs” is hammering some areas in the middle of the country?…
Much of Oklahoma was under a “moderate” risk for severe storms Thursday. That’s level 4 out of 5 on the severe storm risk scale. The National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma, warned of a “significant severe weather” outbreak.
People “should be prepared for hail up to the size of baseballs and winds up to 80 mph with the stronger storms,” the weather service said.
#4 Why is New York City introducing vending machines where addicts can get crack pipes for free?…
First, we had Joe Biden sending out free “safe smoking kits” AKA crack pipes and accessories, and now New York is placing these same types of “safe” smoking kits in their “public health” vending machines.
The machine also has Narcan, an overdose rescue drug, condoms, nicotine gum, and other “health” related items.
#5 One recent survey found that 42 percent of U.S. CEOs believe that AI “has the potential to destroy humanity five to ten years from now”. Why aren’t more people sounding the alarm about the danger that AI poses to our society?…
Many top business leaders are seriously worried that artificial intelligence could pose an existential threat to humanity in the not-too-distant future.
Forty-two percent of CEOs surveyed at the Yale CEO Summit this week say AI has the potential to destroy humanity five to ten years from now, according to survey results shared exclusively with CNN.
“It’s pretty dark and alarming,” Yale professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld said in a phone interview, referring to the findings.
#6 Why has the U.S. government been “secretly stockpiling dirt” on American citizens by purchasing it from data brokers? Isn’t that sort of thing supposed to be illegal?…
The United States government has been secretly amassing a “large amount” of “sensitive and intimate information” on its own citizens, a group of senior advisers informed Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, more than a year ago.
The size and scope of the government effort to accumulate data revealing the minute details of Americans’ lives are described soberly and at length by the director’s own panel of experts in a newly declassified report. Haines had first tasked her advisers in late 2021 with untangling a web of secretive business arrangements between commercial data brokers and US intelligence community members.
#7 Scientists are creating “synthetic human embryos” without using human eggs or human sperm. Why is this being allowed, and what are the dangers if this sort of “research” is not stopped?…
Scientists have created synthetic human embryos using stem cells, in a groundbreaking advance that sidesteps the need for eggs or sperm.
Scientists say these model embryos, which resemble those in the earliest stages of human development, could provide a crucial window on the impact of genetic disorders and the biological causes of recurrent miscarriage.
However, the work also raises serious ethical and legal issues as the lab-grown entities fall outside current legislation in the UK and most other countries.
#8 Why is a Republican member of the California legislature named Scott Wilk telling parents to flee the state if they love their children?…
“In the past when we’ve had these discussions and I’ve seen parental rights atrophied—I’ve encouraged people to keep fighting,” the senator added. “I’ve changed my mind on that.”
“If you love your children, you need to flee California. You need to flee,” he said.
#9 Why are Americans so depressed? According to a brand new report from the CDC, nearly 20 percent of all Americans have been formally diagnosed with depression during their lifetimes…
The proportion of US adults who have ever been diagnosed with depression ranges greatly depending on where they live.
A new report published Thursday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention finds that in 2020, 18.4% of US adults reported having ever been diagnosed with depression in their lifetimes – but, state by state, that percentage of adults ranged from an estimated 12.7% in Hawaii to 27.5% in West Virginia.
#10 Why is there an “epidemic” of cancer among our young people…
This “early-onset cancer epidemic,” as one recent study published in Nature Reviews Clinical Oncology dubbed it, comprises a surge in the incidence of over a dozen different cancers in younger people since the 1990s in countries around the world.
In the U.S., the rate of early-onset cases rose by almost 18 percent between 2000 and 2019, even as cancer declined slightly in older adults, according to data from the National Cancer Institute (NCI). Among Americans between 15 and 39 years old, an age group cancer researchers refer to as adolescents and young adults (AYAs), the surge was more pronounced still, topping 20 percent.
If you want to be successful in life, you can’t be afraid to ask questions.
Because good questions often lead to good solutions.
Unfortunately, much of the population has been trained to no longer think for themselves, and so we all need to try to do what we can to wake them back up.
* * *
Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 22:20 - Tourist Sub Vanishes At Titanic Wreck Site As Search Mission Underway
Tourist Sub Vanishes At Titanic Wreck Site As Search Mission Underway
A search and rescue mission was launched Monday after a submersible went missing while maneuvering around the Titanic wreckage off the coast of Newfoundland, Canada.
Rear Adm. John Mauger, US Coast Guard 1st District Commander, told Fox News the submersible belongs to deep sea exploring company OceanGate and was overdue in returning to the surface.
The vessel has enough oxygen for 96 hours, which “gives us some time to continue searching and continue to using all our means to try and locate the crew members,” Mauger said.
“This is on the site of a wreckage, the wreckage of the Titanic, and so there’s a lot of debris on the bottom, and locating an object on the bottom will be difficult.
“We have lives that are potentially at risk,” he said.
OceanGate Expeditions, the submersible operator that charges $250k per seat, confirmed that it had lost radio communications with the submersible. It’s noted on the company’s website that it has five-person submersibles. There was no word on how many were onboard the vessel.
“We are exploring and mobilizing all options to bring the crew back safely. Our entire focus is on the crewmembers in the submersible and their families.
“We are working toward the safe return of the crewmembers,” OceanGate said in a statement.
The New York Times said a military aircraft and a Coast Guard ship from Canada had been deployed. Vessel-tracking website Marine Traffic shows ships are headed to the Titanic wreck site.
3 tugs seem headed to site of Titanic wreck, where a small submersible that takes paying tourists to view wreck has gone missing
AIS shows 3 tugs left 🇨🇦port St Johns, listing destination as Titanic wreck site & SAR.
3 vessels are Polar Prince, Kopit Hobson 1752, Horizon Arctic pic.twitter.com/TSO45EplMZ— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) June 19, 2023
The US Coast Guard tweeted it had sent a military search plane to the area.
A @USCG C-130 crew is searching for an overdue Canadian research submarine approximately 900 miles off #CapeCod.
For more info and inquiries, please email d1publicaffairs@uscg.mil
— USCGNortheast (@USCGNortheast) June 19, 2023
One of the passengers was Hamish Harding, the chairman of a Dubai-based sales and air operations company, Action Aviation, according to his own Facebook page.
It’s still unclear how many people were on board and the condition of the crew and vessel.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 21:45 - Ron Paul: We Need A Peace President
Ron Paul: We Need A Peace President
Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute,
Most people agree that we are closer to nuclear war than at any time since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Some would even argue that we are closer now than we were in those fateful days, when Soviet missiles in Cuba almost triggered a nuclear war between the US and the USSR.
In those days we were told that we were in a life-or-death struggle with Communism and thus could not cede a square foot of territory or the dominoes would fall one-by-one until the “Reds” ruled over us.
That crisis was very real to me, as I was drafted into the military in the middle of the US/USSR standoff over Cuba and we could all feel how close we were to annihilation.
Fortunately, we had a president in the White House at the time who understood the dangers of nuclear brinkmanship. Even though he was surrounded by hawks who could never forgive him for aborting the idiotic Bay of Pigs Cuba invasion, President John F. Kennedy picked up the telephone for a discussion with his Soviet counterpart, Nikita Khrushchev, which eventually saved the world.
Historians now tell us that President Kennedy agreed to remove US missiles from Turkey in exchange for the Soviets removing missiles from Cuba. It was a classic case of how diplomacy can work if properly employed.
It is all too clear that we do not have a John F. Kennedy in the White House today. Although we no longer face a Soviet empire and communist ideology as justification for taking a confrontational tone toward Russia, the Biden Administration is still dragging the US toward a nuclear conflict. Why are they putting us all at risk? The same old “domino theory” that was discredited in the Cold War: If we don’t fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian, Putin will soon be marching through Berlin.
This all started with Biden promising to only send uniforms and medical supplies to Ukraine for fear of sparking a Russian retaliation. From there we went to anti-tank missiles, multiple-rocket launchers, Patriot missiles, Bradley fighting vehicles, and millions of rounds of ammunition. The Biden Administration announced last week that it would send depleted uranium ammunition to Ukraine, which poisons the earth for millennia to come. Rumors are that long-range ATACMs missiles are to be delivered soon, which could strike deep into Russia.
Apparently, F-16 fighter jets are also on the way.
The escalation rationale from Washington, we are told, is that since the Russians have not directly retaliated against NATO for NATO’s direct support of Ukraine’s war machine, we can be sure they never will respond.
Is that really a wise bet? It is clear to many that US-built F-16 fighters taking off from NATO bases with NATO pilots attacking Russians in Ukraine – or even Russia itself – would be a declaration of war on Russia.
That means World War III – something we managed to avoid for the whole Cold War.
Congress is silent – or compliant – as we lurch forward toward disaster for no discernable US strategic goal. Biden – or whoever is actually running the show – is forging straight ahead.
As we move into the US presidential election cycle one thing is clear: we desperately need a peace president to do for us what JFK did for the US during the Cuba crisis. Hopefully it won’t be too late!
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 21:10 - Trump 'Needs To Be Shot': Democratic Lawmaker Quickly Backpedals During On-Air Tirade
Trump ‘Needs To Be Shot’: Democratic Lawmaker Quickly Backpedals During On-Air Tirade
The Ranking Democrat on the House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government (Jim Jordan’s panel) said on Sunday that former President Donald Trump should be “shot” for “having the classified information for Americans” at Mar-a-Lago.
Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-VI), who in April threatened journalist Matt Taibbi with imprisonment over his “Twitter Files” testimony, was speaking to MSNBC about Trump’s classified records case when she let the comment slip. She quickly corrected herself with “stopped,” adding that Trump will “have his day in court.”
Plaskett, who also called accusations that the Biden DOJ targeted concerned parents a “conspiracy theory,” called the notion that Biden’s FBI and DOJ follow a two-tiered system of justice nothing more than “propaganda.”
Watch:
Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-Virgin Islands): “[Trump] needs to be shot— stopped.” pic.twitter.com/E2nIzVJuwY
— Jake Schneider (@jacobkschneider) June 18, 2023
As Just the News notes, many wondered if it was a Freudian slip.
Quite the Freudian slip from Stacey Plaskett: Trump “needs to be shot— stopped.”
— ALX 🇺🇸 (@alx) June 18, 2023
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Dr. Freud would like a word. pic.twitter.com/mKnmSFhEFp
— Dave (@davespace_) June 18, 2023
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@SpeakerMcCarthy are you going to do anything about this!!?
— #1Covefefegirl (@MelFarnwalt) June 18, 2023
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She needs to be kicked off the committee she’s serving on!! She’s out of control!!
— Linda Thomas (@lindathomas102) June 18, 2023
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 20:35 - School Principal Quits Job To Homeschool Her 3 Kids On A 10-Acre Homestead: 'I Wanted To Raise Thinkers'
School Principal Quits Job To Homeschool Her 3 Kids On A 10-Acre Homestead: ‘I Wanted To Raise Thinkers’
Authored by Louise Chambers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A former school principal who grew frustrated with the school system quit her job and instead chose to homeschool her three kids on a 10-acre (4.05-hectare) homestead. Merging her children’s learning with their land and home, she has created an immersive “real world” educational experience based on her kids’ unique needs.
(Courtesy of Byrndle Photo via Mandy Davis) Mandy Davis, 37, lives in Central Oregon with her husband, Josh, 38, and their children Emma, 11, Clara, 9, and Cruz, 1. For Mandy, who was adopted from Seoul, South Korea, and who later grew up in Nebraska, her own public school experience was “not all roses.” Neither was Texas native Josh’s since he moved often as a child and suffered from huge learning gaps as he moved between state education systems.
Wanting to be a positive change and advocate for all students, Mandy got into the education field right after college. However, after struggling with having little control over what she was so passionate about, Mandy, who has a Master’s in Education and Instruction Design and has worked in both public and private schools, felt called to take full control of her children’s education.
“Schools today are tough,” she told The Epoch Times. “I couldn’t be the change I wanted to be in our school system, but more so, I couldn’t leave my children in it to suffer.”
Former school principal, Mandy Davis. (Courtesy of Byrndle Photo via Mandy Davis) ‘Progress, Not Perfection’
Mandy cited teacher shortages and unfit applicants, a lack of child-led learning, wasted time, outdated curriculums, political agenda curriculum, lack of autonomy of learning, and a rise of problematic student behavior as major chronic issues in the system.
“Schools are a tricky beast,” Mandy said, adding that as a parent and educator, there is very little control.
“I remember as an educator, wanting more control over how I was teaching curriculum,” she said. “But then I would have to have it approved by my admin—the school—the district—the state … and ultimately the answer was always NO.
“Education and educational change are complex—outside of the fault of a singular group but multifaceted. This makes change difficult and slow.”
Thus, after a discussion with her husband and daughters, she left her job in June 2022 as a principal at her kids’ private Christian school in Oregon and turned to homeschooling for answers.
The transition to homeschooling came in August 2022 and this made the family believe that they could finally chase their slow lifestyle dreams.
“I wanted my children to not sit at a desk for 7-plus hours each day,” Mandy said. “I wanted to be able to provide my children with a life of enriching learning. I wanted my children to focus on progress and not perfection. I wanted to raise thinkers and leaders, not followers and workers.”
Not new to the homeschooling journey since she had already tried it in their daughters’ early years and for two years during the pandemic, Mandy felt this time, as they made the change, her husband and children transitioned much more easily than she did—she had to unschool herself and consciously work to avoid mirroring a typical classroom environment.
Today, Mandy and her kids’ school for anywhere between 90 minutes to four hours a day to meet their weekly goals. The rest of the day is led by what Mandy calls “home culture.” She has removed timetables in favor of routines and has placed the focus on communal living and her children’s unique strengths and interests.
“One of the most popular questions I receive is, ‘What is your daily homeschool schedule?’ Answer: We don’t have one,” Mandy said. “In our home culture, it was important for my children to understand that learning is a joy that never has to end. When we are reading a good book, we don’t need to stop because the clock is telling us it’s time for a math lesson; if we find a praying mantis in the garden, we don’t need to take a photo and run because we have language arts to get to.”
Wild and Free
Besides learning from books, Emma, Clara, and Cruz spend time gardening, baking, doing crafts, and taking care of the animals on their homestead. The family has four goats, 16 chickens, four dogs, two cats, and a beautiful garden. They are considering cows for the future.
As year-round learners, the kids’ lessons reflect the seasons, and they work hard or take breaks as needed.
Mandy believes that, because of homeschooling, her children are “wild and free” and have confidence in who they are. Their daily challenges are the same as other families, including waking up grumpy and sibling rivalry. However, the difference, according to Mandy, is that their homeschooling life allows time to address these issues.
‘Give Yourself Grace’
For Mandy, her Christian faith plays a huge role in her homeschooling journey and parenting philosophy, with the unyielding support of her husband, Josh, who works full-time as the owner of More Roof Life roofing company in Central Oregon.
Mandy said: “I’ve been in enough schools to know that teachers’ natural bias, religion, and politics come out. It’s not an intentional thing, it’s a human nature thing. I feel blessed to be that teacher for my children and set a moral compass from the heart of our family.”
Since sharing her radical career shift and snippets of daily homeschool and homesteading life on Instagram, Mandy has received overwhelming support. She often gets messages from other former educators, new homeschool moms, and adults who were homeschooled in the past with similar stories. She has been able to build a rich, invaluable community.
However, apart from the support, Mandy has also received a fair share of “negative comments.”
“Some come from a place of not understanding, or simply lacking the education of what homeschooling is, and others from a place of frustration or just toxic negativity,” she said.
Meanwhile, the biggest misconception amongst people about homeschooling, according to Mandy, is that people think there is a lack of socialization.
“This is so wrong,” she said. “How is sitting at a desk surrounded by 25-plus peers your exact same age, while your teacher tells you not to talk, socialization? We are out every day, having real-world experiences with all walks of life!”
Most importantly, Mandy’s family talks about everything and strongly believes there is nothing that they can’t solve together.
“I always want to be there for my children for the little things, so they know, later in life, that they can come to me for the big things,” she said.
Mandy compares herself to a “greenhouse.”
“I don’t believe we need to place kids in a bubble, but I love that comparison to a greenhouse,” she said. “I am not cutting my children off from the world, but know the importance of cutting certain parts of the world off from my children. Allowing the light to flood in while keeping the storms and locusts out, what a blessing it is to give our children this head start in life!”
She believes that in the future when she releases her children into the world, they will be able to withstand any storm.
For Mandy, her mission is simple.
“The best way to be an educational activist is to talk about it,” she said. “I think that because of my background in education, I have a unique voice in the space, and I feel the duty to use that voice to help as many as I can.”
To advocate for homeschooling, Mandy appeared as a guest on two podcasts: Education Evolution Podcast, and Homeschool Sister Podcast. She is also speaking at the sold-out Wild & Free Conference in Tennessee in the fall of 2023.
Mandy strongly believes that school choice is an important freedom and needs to become a regular and integral part of parenting.
“Here’s the thing: no matter what school choice you make for your family, your children’s education will always be your responsibility,” Mandy said. “Homeschool has been exactly what our family needed … and it won’t be for everyone, but I do encourage you to find that school choice that sings to your heart.”
For those families looking at transitioning to a homeschooling lifestyle, the mom of three advised: “Give yourself a lot of grace. There will never be a point in time where you know everything or you feel completely confident in your skills. Similar to a first-year teacher coming in the classroom with no prior teaching experience, it is something you learn as you go, and you have a community surrounding you ready to support you.”
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 20:00 - Bazball
Bazball
By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
Today the US markets are closed for the Juneteenth holiday, so it’s a shortened week in the beating heart of the world financial system (sorry Londoners). Happily, a reduced American presence in our audience today presents a golden opportunity for a cricket-themed daily! The timing couldn’t be better, since one of the world’s great sporting rivalries has again resumed as England and Australia face off in the latest iteration of a 140-year grudge match. The Ashes is a biennial best-of-five tournament between the two nations, with the winner claiming a coveted four-inch tall terracotta urn said to contain the eponymous ashes of English cricket, which (legend has it) died and was cremated in London in 1882 when a touring Australian side bested the Mother Country.
The first match of this year’s series is a little over halfway through (games can take up to five days). Outcomes of cricket matches are notoriously hard to predict, and one of the great beauties of the sport is that there is never a definite answer to the question of “who is winning?” Nevertheless, I will go out on a limb and predict that this particular match is headed for a very thrilling draw, which sounds oxymoronic and will no doubt be further cause for consternation amongst less-devoted followers. However, all of that to one side, what is interesting (and relevant!) about this series is the way that England is playing. England have completely re-invented themselves into an aggressive and unorthodox excitement machine. This new style of play has been dubbed ‘Bazball’, owing to the assertive combination of England’s New Zealander coach, Brendon ‘Baz’ McCullum and their New Zealander captain (sorry, couldn’t resist), Ben Stokes. Bear with me as I contort this into a metaphor for the finer points of central banking.
Of course, unorthodoxy and aggression is now the de facto policy of many central banks around the world. We should see further evidence of this later in the week when the Bank of England meets to set the official Bank Rate. A further hike is all-but guaranteed, with the only real question being: “how much do they hike by?” The Bloomberg survey of bank economists overwhelming favours a 25 bps lift, whereas market pricing shows a decent probability of the BOE adopting the Bazball approach and swinging for the fence after a bumper labour force report last week showed the unemployment rate falling back to 3.8% and wages growth accelerating to 6.5% year-on-year. OIS futures have just over 30 bps extra priced in for the June meeting, implying a 1-in-5 chance of a supersized rate hike. The same OIS curve predicts a Bank Rate of 5.85% by early February next year.
The day before the Bank of England meeting we will see UK CPI for May. Obviously, this will be important for informing the actions of policy makers. Expectations are for the headline reading to fall slightly to 8.4% y-o-y, but for the core measure to display all of the stodge of a Geoffrey Boycott in remaining unmoved at 6.4%. Like Sir Geoffrey, core inflation has proved irritatingly difficult to dismiss in several geographies around the world, and a chorus of central banks have been upping the ante (at least in terms of rhetoric) in recent times to warn us all that more needs to be done to ensure victory.
Both the Fed and the ECB struck a hawkish tone last week, and despite the ongoing lethargy in Bank of Japan policy-making, expectations are building that a hawkish pivot will come sooner or later as inflation pressures build. Even the RBA, who have compiled a watchful 400 bps worth of cumulative tightening since May 2022, now seem to be looking to up the tempo. Australia had its own bumper labour force report last week. Employment rose by more than 5x expectations in May and both the participation rate and labour to population ratio returned to all-time highs. This puts the pressure squarely back on a central bank who had signalled at their June policy meeting that they were running out of patience with Australia’s poor productivity performance and consequent growth in unit labour costs. The jobs data prompted inversion in the 3y-10y Aussie bond spread for the first time since 2008, and we are now seeing predictions in the market of an Aussie cash rate as high as 4.85% by September when just a month ago many were convinced that the RBA was ready to declare its innings closed at 3.85%.
Indeed, this morning the Australian Financial Review is reporting that more unorthodox tactics could be on the way. The AFR suggests that a reversal of pandemic-era quantitative easing could be in the offing, with the RBA exploring the possibility of selling some of the $330 billion of bonds bought over the course of 2020-21. I will risk the ire of MMT advocates here by suggesting that the QE program has been a disaster for the RBA’s balance sheet, with cumulative losses on those bonds sitting at approximately A$40 billion. That means that the already skint Australian Treasury shouldn’t expect a dividend from the central bank any time soon. The prospect of bond sales is interesting for other reasons, principally because it could cause the Aussie yield-curve to “un-invert” by pushing up longer term yields. This would then flow through to the mortgage market, where it is currently possible to find 5-year fixed rates at similar levels to prevailing variable-rate mortgages. A re-steepening of the curve would likely end this situation by causing fixed rates to command a price premium over variable rates, leaving mortgagors with nowhere to hide to avoid higher borrowing costs in the future.
There are obvious parallels in the UK, where the Telegraph reports one Tory MP catastrophizing about the state of the UK mortgage market. Rapid monetary tightening has precipitated predictable calls for government to assist over-leveraged households, but that would defeat the purpose of tightening monetary policy in the first place! So, while central bankers scratch their heads about how long the long and variable lags might be, and try their best to come out of this without looking like the next Arthur Burns, beleaguered households who borrowed on the promise of low rates from here to eternity probably feel like the current bout of monetary tightening is just not cricket. So, we’re going to have to pick our poison. For mortgagors, it’s a case of “Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. If rate hikes don’t get you, inflation must.”
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 19:25 - The Utter Failure Of Merrick Garland: Turley
The Utter Failure Of Merrick Garland: Turley
Merrick Garland began his tenure as attorney general with the stated intention of restoring faith in the Justice Department and the rule of law. By that standard, Garland has been a failure.
In fact, if anything, the crisis of faith surrounding his department has only deepened on his watch, and he bears some of the blame.
Polls show that half the country distrusts the FBI. A recent poll by Harvard CAPS-Harris found that 70 percent are either very or somewhat concerned about election interference by the FBI and other intelligence agencies. An additional 71 percent agreed that changes post-2016 had not done enough to prevent further interference and that “wide-ranging” reform was still required. Another poll showed 64 percent view the FBI as “politically compromised.”
During the term of his predecessor, Bill Barr, 50 percent of the public viewed the department favorably, and 70 percent had a favorable view of the FBI. The public trust of the department appears to have declined under Garland. At the very least, it has not dramatically improved.
There is variation in these polls, but they show a deep-seated distrust of the Justice Department that continues to taint all of the department’s work.
For example, the recent indictment of former President Donald Trump contains extremely damaging elements, including an audiotape that directly contradicts Trump’s assertions that he declassified all of the documents in his possession. Yet even the Justice Department’s release of an unusually detailed indictment, with pictures designed to sway public opinion, appears to have had little effect. While 48 percent of the public believes that the charges are justified, 47 percent believe the charges are “politically motivated.”
The response to this indictment shows the gravitational pull of public perceptions of the Justice Department. That perception of bias is well earned. Various officials were removed from the Department by career officials for their express bias and misconduct during the Russia-collusion investigation. That investigation was recently found by Special Counsel John Durham to have been launched with the backing of the Clinton campaign and without the minimal evidence ordinarily required by the department.
The Justice Department and the media kept the investigation going for years despite the lack of credible evidence.
When Biden gave the nod to Garland, I thought it was a brilliant move. Garland had been an affable, principled and moderate judge. Many of us criticized the Senate’s refusal to give him a vote after his nomination to the Supreme Court. I now believe that he would have made a great justice for all the reasons he has proven to be a poor attorney general.
He is affable but not influential or effective in changing the department. He is the very symbol for maintaining a status quo that the public rejects.
Garland leads the department with the same judicial temperament and persona. Predecessors such as Barr came to the department as former prosecutors with a clarity of purpose and mission. That would put Barr in conflict with Trump, but he was a hands-on manager who penetrated every level of the department. While some opposed Barr’s priorities, no one doubted who was in control of that department.
Garland’s reputation is more like that of a supervising judge who defers to the views and decisions of his agency. The result has been disastrous for the department. Even FBI Director Christopher Wray admitted that the past scandals demanded fundamental changes in the department’s operations.
Yet Garland allowed the culture to remain unchanged. He remained largely reactive to new scandals like the task force quickly assembled at the request of the teacher’s union and school board officials to investigate parents challenging school boards.
Garland remained largely silent as the FBI cracked down on conservative groups across the country in the wake of the Jan. 6 riot. He said nothing as his subordinate prosecutor Michael Sherwin bragged on in a television interview how they sought to unleash “shock and awe” on those who supported the election challenge to ensure that certain “people were afraid to come back to D.C.”
While most of us supported the tough punishment of rioters, the Justice Department was criticized for its draconian treatment of people charged with relatively minor offenses such as trespass and unlawful entry into the Capitol.
The controversies continue to pile up, from the seizure of the phone of a member of Congress to alleged disparate treatment in investigations of pro-life over pro-choice groups. Some of these and other controversies are legitimately debatable; others are not.
Garland could have taken steps to assure the public that there is not a two-tiered system of justice but repeatedly refused to do so. For example, Garland has continued to refuse to appoint a special counsel in the investigation of Hunter Biden. By doing so, Garland has removed the president’s greatest threat in the form of a report that would detail the scope of the Biden family’s alleged influence peddling and foreign contacts.
Garland is now looking at a new inflammatory situation after Special Counsel Jack Smith has leveled 37 charges against Trump while Robert Hur, “the other special counsel” investigating Biden, has largely disappeared from sight.
There is also the notable absence of any decision by Smith on another part of his mandate: crimes associated with Jan. 6th. Some of us have argued that Trump’s controversial speech was constitutionally protected. While Smith was swift to charge on the documents matter, he has not resolved the other part of his mandate even though the Jan. 6th matter has widely investigated by the Justice Department and Congress. The concern is that the Justice Department does not want to undermine the widespread claims in the media and Congress that Trump committed crimes in supporting an “insurrection.”
Garland has also supported the appointment of controversial officials such as Kirsten Clarke and Rachael Rollins, deepening the distrust of conservatives.
Time and again, Garland could have made decisions to seek to assure the public with more moderate and transparent decisions. He has repeatedly failed to do so.
Garland is not solely at fault. Biden took office promising to be a unifier and a moderate. He immediately adopted far left policies and fueled divisions by denouncing millions of “MAGA Republicans” and his political opponents as “semi-fascist” extremists.
Garland repeatedly pledged that political considerations would hold no sway with him as attorney general. He has certainly refrained from Biden’s style of divisive rhetoric. However, he has done little prospectively to assure the public that the department is pursuing cases without political bias. He continues to repeat the mantra of “trust us, we’re the government,” long after that trust has been lost with many citizens.
The failure of Merrick Garland is becoming more and more evident by the day. The public continues to distrust the Department, and his assurances of fair dealing have been overwhelmingly rejected by Republicans and independents.
It is hard to dislike Merrick Garland as a man. But as an attorney general, there is little to like about his last two years.
Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. You can follow him on Twitter @JonathanTurley.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 18:50 - Black Americans Support, US Majority Reject Reparations
Black Americans Support, US Majority Reject Reparations
Reparations for slavery in the U.S. have been discussed contentiously, not only in the lead-up to this Monday’s Juneteenth holiday that commemorates the end of slavery in the country. A survey carried out by Pew Research Center in 2021 shows that two-thirds in the U.S. reject the idea of slavery reparations.
You will find more infographics at Statista
However, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, the picture is different among Black Americans, of whom three-quarters support reparations. Support is also higher among Hispanics – where almost 40 percent are in favor – and Asians – one third is for reparations – than among white Americans. Only 18 percent in the group supported them, the survey showed.
A timeline of reparations in the U.S. put together by the University of Massachusetts Amherst shows that payments to African-Americans as reparations for slavery are few and far between. While a few former slaves have actually won compensation in court cases – in the 18th-19th centuries – amounts varied and were sometimes quite low. In the 20th century, especially its first half, reparation payments centered on Native American tribes, which were compensated for their land being taken away.
In the case of Native Americans, the federal government was easily identifiable as the party that should be responsible for reparations as it had acquired the Native American lands in question.
As for restitutions for slavery, 75 percent of Pew respondents in favor of reparations also saw the U.S. government as carrying all or most of the responsibility for them (as its laws upheld slavery). 65 percent and 53 percent also saw a lot of responsibility with businesses and banks as well as colleges and universities which had benefited from slavery, respectively. Fewer respondents – 44 percent – said descendants of those active in the slave trade should pay.
Around the turn of the 20th century, the attention of courts and governments refocused on restitutions for African-Americans. Settlements, laws and other resolutions on the topic often focused on reparations for specific events – the discrimination of Black farmers in Department of Agriculture loans, the historical underfunding of Historically Black Colleges and Universities, the victimization of Black Americans in medical experiments and police torture, among others, with voluntarily adopted measures often converting reparations into scholarships, independent of whether the event triggering compensation had anything to do with education discrimination.
Only recently, more cases of reparation payments have addressed descendants of slaves or Black Americans in general. Direct payments have been rare, however, and include reparations by the Virginia Theological Seminary, which used slave labor on its campus, and those paid since 2022 by the city of Evanston, Ill., to its Black residents for home repairs and down payments on property. Several other cities and the state of California are currently exploring similar possibilities while on a federal level, a bill that would create a commission to study reparations by the U.S. government passed a house committee vote in 2021 – which was considered a major milestone despite it not going any further. The bill in question, H.B. 40, was named after the Civil War-era promise of 40 acres and a mule for Black Americas, which as the most well-know reparations promise in American history has remained unfulfilled.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 18:15 - "No One's Going Short Here"
“No One’s Going Short Here”
By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management
“No one’s going short here,” said Biggie Too. “You need the technical to turn first, things to roll over. Or more conclusive evidence that shows people are fully committed again,” continued the Chief Global Strategist for one of Wall Street’s Too-Big-To-Fail affairs.
“It’s unclear whether the asset allocation crowd has reloaded (ZH: actually it is clear, they have). But if they’re coming in now, at these levels, then they’re aiming for new highs,” barked Biggie. “And you know, if they haven’t come back in force yet, why now?” he asked, obviously not waiting for an answer.
“Back in 2020, when the market started climbing, and people couldn’t quite believe it, Biggie was talking to this guy who asks good questions,” said Biggie Too, sliding effortlessly into 3rd person. “The guy asked Biggie whether maybe the market knew we were gonna get a vaccine?” said Too. “And the market kept going straight up, and the guy had got it right,” he said.
“So, this week, the same guy asked Biggie if maybe the market knows this war between Russia and Ukraine is gonna come to an end?” said Biggie.
“And Biggie was like, hmmm.”
Machinistan:
“Take any application, add AI, and you need 7x-50x the compute power,” said the entrepreneur. “AI is a black hole, it’ll suck money out of everything else and into its vortex,” he said. “The arms race between industry giants is a 20 on a scale of 1-10.” He’s building data centers for tech giants. “The whole industry is priced off of power – megawatts – that’s how we price our projects,” he said. “Data centers are really just selling power, and there are tens and tens of billions of dollars of demand for it. The cost of entry is staggering. It’s a big boy game.”
“Our clients tell us they’ll take as much power as we can deliver,” he said. “If we have 500 megawatts of data center capacity coming, they say get us a gigawatt.” AI requires a limited number of people, Nividia chips and a massive amount of electricity. The projected consumption curves are breathtaking. “The firms with the clearest advantage had the largest data center capacity coming into this.” Microsoft, Google, Amazon. “Who else wins? It’s kind of hard to see China win. Killing Alibaba wasn’t the smartest move. And Europe is far behind.”
“If anything in world history could aggregate economic power into a small number of hands, it is unambiguously AI,” he said. “If you got into the game now, you’d need $100bln, maybe $200bln, and your odds of winning would be no better than 20%.” Winners will keep sucking earnings from the economy. “Adapt your business to this trend. In real estate, build beds for machines. That’s what a data center is. Get short humans, long machines. People say buy Austin real estate, buy Miami, but that misses the opportunity. Find ways to buy Machinistan.”
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 17:40 - China Has A Simple Solution To Its Soaring Youth Unemployment
China Has A Simple Solution To Its Soaring Youth Unemployment
Something bad is brewing inside the Chinese economy: while most conventional indicators are showing a sharp slowdown to the country’s GDP growth rate, including disappointing retail sales, fixed investment and industrial output, forcing the PBOC last week to ease monetary conditions if nowhere nearly enough to spark a bounce in the economy, a far more troubling indicator has just hit an all time high – the unemployment rate for China’s youth (those aged 16-24), has more than doubled in the past 4 years, surging to a record 20.8% in May (and anecdotal evidence suggests youth unemployment rate could be even higher than the official estimate), up from the single digits pre-Covid.
And if there is one thing Beijing wants no part of, it is tens of millions of young Chinese sitting idle, doing and earning nothing as they watch their big city pals sport the latest gadget du jour, and getting angry – if not regime changey – thoughts.
But why has China’s youth unemployment soared as much as it has?
According to a recent note from Goldman’s China strategist Maggie Wei (full note available to professional subs), Chinese youth unemployment rates tend to be higher than overall unemployment rates as this group appear particularly vulnerable to economic downcycles, likely due to a lack of experience.
But before we get into the reasons for the jump, first some facts. According to China’s NBS, there are are around 96 million 16-24year-olds in the urban areas; 32 million 16-24 year-olds in the urban labor force (the rest are mainly still studying), 26 million 16-24 year-olds in urban employment (7% of urban employment), and roughly 6 million 16-24 year-olds unemployed (23% of urban unemployed persons). In other words, there are about 3 million additional unemployed 16-24 year-olds now relative to pre-Covid.
The youth population is an important driver for overall consumption: the 15-24 year-old group accounted for 17% of total consumption (2010 data, based on household surveys and academic research). This age group tends to spend more on culture and education, residence (for example paying rents), transportation and communication.
So, again, why is youth unemployment so high?
As the youth accounted for close to 20% of consumption, increasing their employment and restoring their consumption power appear important to consumption recovery post reopening.
As noted above, youth tend to be particularly vulnerable during economic downcycles, probably due to a lack of work experience. Goldman’s analysis suggests that, compared with older workers, the 16-24 age group unemployment rate is more sensitive to fluctuations in the service activity growth. The next chart shows the correlation between unemployment rate and the 3-month lag of output gaps in the services sector for 16-24 age group and the 25-59 age group separately. For each 1pp increase in services sector output gap, youth unemployment rate would rise by 0.6pp, while the unemployment rate for the 25-59 year-olds might be little changed. NBS data on employment suggest services sectors such as hotel and catering, education, and IT industries tend to hire more young employees compared with other sectors.
The services sector shows significant output gaps since last year as Covid outbreaks and related control measures weighed on services activities. Output gap in the services sector narrowed materially in Q1 this year from -7pp in December 2022 to -1.2pp in April 2023, on the back of reopening boost to the economy. This would imply 3pp lower youth unemployment rate in Q2 this year. While the improvement in service activity growth implies rising demand for young workers, this increase in demand could be more than offset by strong supply seasonality. As we enter the graduation season, youth unemployment rate could rise by 3-4% and peak in summertime (usually in July or August) before starting to decline from end of Q3, if we look at the seasonal pattern in 2018 and 2019 (prior to Covid). As a result, we might see youth unemployment continuing its upward trend in the next few months.
Are there structural reasons behind China’s elevated youth unemployment rate
While the above analysis suggests the youth unemployment rate is cyclical and is set to decline as service activity growth improves, there may be other structural headwinds contributing to the high youth unemployment rate. In particular, mismatches between skillset graduates acquired from their higher education and skillset required by employers in industry with booming labor demand might have caused frictions in the labor market and therefore contributed to high youth unemployment rate.
In the chart below, GS plots the number of graduates by discipline and hiring demand by industry, according to NBS’s data. There appears to be misalignment between discipline and business requirement, though graduates could choose jobs that are not directly relevant to their discipline. For example, the number of graduates in education/sports discipline grew by more than 20% in 2021 relative to 2018, while hiring demand of education industry as a whole weakened materially during the same period. Meanwhile, regulation changes in recent years towards IT, education, and property sector might have contributed to the weakening of labor demand in these sectors.
What are the policy solutions?
Here, the answer is two-fold, with the distinction being drawn between the politically correct (if largely irrelevant), and that which is less socially acceptable, yet bears far more profound consequences for the real world.
Starting with the former, Goldman writes that China’s youth unemployment suggest promoting services activity growth to offset the recent surge. “A complete closure of service sector output gap from current level could reduce youth unemployment rate by up to 7% according to the bank’s estimate, although this could overestimate the potential improvement if some of the weakness in sectors such as education and information technology may have become structural on regulatory tightening.”
Blah Blah Blah: China is the world’s most advanced authoritarian economy (although under Biden, the US has been doing everything in its power to dethrone China): if it had an on-off switch to flip as per Goldman’s reco, it would have done so long ago instead of opening up its economic omnipotence to global skepticism and criticism, something which further weakens Beijing’s control at a time when the economy is clearly stalling.
Instead, a more practical and realistic solution comes from Jeffrey Landsberg over at Commodore Research, who writes that in recent months he has often received questions from clients regarding if and when to expect a war will break out between China and Taiwan. In response, Landsberg writes that “it is very difficult to make such a prediction, but lately a depressing thought has been stuck in our mind: War Creates A Lot Of Employment For A Country’s Youth.”
Commodore further notes that “it is becoming increasingly uncomfortable that the world’s concerns of a coming war in Taiwan are intensifying at the very same time that China’s youth unemployment is surging.” And while caveating its prediction, the firm cautions that “the record level of China’s youth unemployment, concerns over Taiwan, and countless Ukrainian and Russian youth already engaged in a European land war all continue to weigh heavily on our mind.”
There’s more: Commodore also writes that “it remains clear to us that the United States and many other nations (excluding China) have already long been in a recession.”
Consensus is only that a recession could come, but in our view a recession has been long underway. The following data is from the United States, but data from many other countries — including much of Europe etc. — all show the same reality: consumer and industrial sectors in the United States and elsewhere are all showing recession. Six out of the last seven months (including every month this year) have seen US retail sales growth come in less than inflation. This is a rare development that only occurs in recession. US consumers are purchasing less actual goods than they did a year ago.
Furthermore, while November is when US purchases of actual goods started to contract on a year-on-year basis, December marked when US manufacturing started to contract.
As Commodore concludes: “the United States (and many other nations) have long been a recession. China is faring better, however, but its
youth unemployment, housing market, and chance of war all remain concerning.”What was left unspoken, but what is most concerning, is that when the world’s interests all align in the direction of war, a war is usually not far behind. Because while a China-Taiwan war would be a bloody, if quick solution to the problem of soaring youth unemployment, with all of its inherent systemic destabilization, we will also remind readers that the last time US debt/GDP was at the current level – and, worse, was forecast to grow exponentially higher – all else equal…
… was at the end of World War II. As such, it becomes instrumental for the current regime – and by that we mean either manifestation of the uniparty that is in control – to prevent “all else being equal”, which by extension means a radical US debt and economic restructuring similar to that observed in the aftermath of the great war.
All of which is to say that we now live in a world where both the US and China are tacitly looking for a war outcome. It won’t take long before they get it.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 17:05 - Tearing Apart The Governing Consensus
Tearing Apart The Governing Consensus
Authored by Roger Kimball via American Greatness,
A victory for the administrative state in the war on Donald Trump won’t be a victory for the rule of law…
We hear a lot about the loss of “institutional legitimacy” these days. One of the great ironies attendant on that loss is a revolution in sentiment among many—but by no means all—people who think of themselves as conservative. Hitherto, such people would have been staunch supporters of those institutions that, traditionally, had represented the rule of law, the continuity of our culture, etc. Nowadays, they look with a jaundiced eye upon once-respected institutions like the Department of Justice, the FBI, the CIA, and the rest of the national security/surveillance apparat.
How could it be otherwise? Recent revelations that scores if not hundreds of figures from that world had insinuated themselves into media, social and otherwise, to push a partisan agenda must give us pause. The stories are legion. Here’s one that just appeared in The Federalist by Margot Cleveland.
The month before Joe Biden’s inauguration, FBI sources collaborated with the New York Times’ Russia-collusion hoaxer Adam Goldman to falsely portray the investigation into Hunter Biden as a big ole nothingburger. Americans just didn’t know it at the time. However, revisiting Goldman’s article now, in light of recent whistleblower revelations and statements by former Attorney General William Barr, reveals this reality—and more.
That’s bad, right? The FBI fed faked news to our former “newspaper of record” about a partisan matter that might well have determined the outcome of a presidential election. And the response? A little feckless hand-wringing on the Right. Some clucking tongues. At the end of the day, though, expect crickets.
In one of the very best pieces I have seen about the Horrors!-Trump-had-classified-documents-at-Mar-a-Lago indictment, also published at The Federalist, former Assistant U.S. Attorney Will Scharf minutes several disturbing features of that 37-count farce. Much of what he has to say is broadly exculpatory of Trump, but one of the most disturbing items concerns the 38th item in Special Counsel Jack Smith’s partisan cudgel: the indictment of Trump’s aide Walt Nauta.
Why was Nauta indicted? Smith alleges he was guilty of “conspiracy to obstruct justice.” What he is being punished for, however, is refusing to betray his employer, Donald Trump. “Just turn state’s evidence on the bad orange man and we’ll let you go.” That, more or less, is what the Feds said.
They came down heavy on Nauta’s lawyer, Stanley Woodward, too. As Scharf explains, Woodward alleged in a court filing that
during a meeting with prosecutors about his client’s case, the head of the Counterintelligence Section of DOJ’s National Security Division Jay Bratt ‘suggested Woodward’s judicial application [for a DC Superior Court judgeship] might be considered more favorably if he and his client cooperated against Trump.’
Got that? It might have been an out-take from “The Godfather.” But no, it is business as usual in the Department of Justice circa 2023. Of course, we do not yet know that the allegation is true. If it is, Scharf’s description of it as “truly wild misconduct” is an understatement. I think it is very likely true.
As Scharf notes, “Woodward is a highly accomplished lawyer. He spent a decade at Akin Gump, a top law firm, clerked on the D.C. Circuit, and has very substantial experience in government investigations. This is not some fly-by-night TV lawyer. He is a legal heavyweight, and he is leveling an extremely serious allegation of misconduct against a senior official at DOJ.”
Let’s say his accusation turns out to be true. What then? If past performance is any guide, the erring prosecutor might or might not get a slap on the wrist and the whole thing will be buried. Maybe he will go on to a lucrative TV posting, à la Andrew McCabe or Peter Strzok. Maybe he’ll be shuffled to another department. Don’t expect any real consequences.
Such cases, and they are legion, bring me back to that irony I mentioned at the outset of this column. The world seems increasingly divided between those who continue to have confidence in our institutions and those who, finding them bankrupt, have withdrawn their support.
This dividing line shows up in many different ways. One prominent fissure shows itself in the commentary on Jack Smith’s indictment. On one side, there are commentators—including such eminences as former Attorney General William Barr—who tell us that Trump’s holding on to those documents at Mar-a-Lago was heinous. On the other side are those (like me) who think it was no big deal.
There has been a lot of talk about how he had “the nation’s most sensitive secrets” strewn about a closet or lining a bathroom. But nothing I’ve seen—certainly nothing in Smith’s indictment—rings any alarm bells to me. Joe Biden had hundreds of boxes of classified documents strewn about his garage and elsewhere in his house. He took those documents when he was a senator or vice president. Before, that is, he was president with the plenary power to declassify anything he wished and take home or on holiday anything he wished.
There has been a lot of talk about how the United States is more and more subject to a “two-tier” system of justice, which is to say a system of injustice. It pains me to acknowledge it, but it is true. Henry VIII had his Star Chamber, a similarly unjust form of meting out justice. Through it he got rid of the people who stood in his way or did not do what he wanted them to.
The functionaries and factota of the administrative state are busy trying to do to Donald Trump what Henry did to his enemies. They might just be able to peck him to death, or to jail. It won’t be a victory for the rule of law. But it will surely increase the rancor and divisions that are tearing apart the governing consensus that once ruled in this country.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 16:30 - Two Tropical Waves Develop In "Deep Tropics," Possible Harbinger Of Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season
Two Tropical Waves Develop In “Deep Tropics,” Possible Harbinger Of Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two tropical waves that formed off Africa in recent days and are heading west across the Atlantic Ocean. One has a very high probability of formation within the next 48 hours.
Tropical Wave 1, or Invest 92-L, is “midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles and has become better organized overnight and is close to becoming a tropical cyclone,” NHC wrote in a Monday morning update. The weather agency gives 92-L a 100% probability of formation within the next 48 hours.
“It’s unusual in June to have a system (Invest #92L) on the verge of developing into a tropical depression or storm, let alone two. 92-L will head in the direction of the Caribbean over the next couple of days, but there are questions,” Fox Weather meteorologist Bryan Norcross tweeted.
TROPICS UPDATE: It’s unusual in June to have a system (Invest #92L) on the verge of developing into a tropical depression or storm, let alone two. 92-L will head in the direction of the Caribbean over the next couple days, but there are questions. More at pic.twitter.com/l85tml6Pg5
— Bryan Norcross (@bryannorcrosstv) June 19, 2023
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Computer models forecast 92-L’s trajectory is likely the Caribbean Sea, but there are still a lot of uncertainties.
Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane forecaster at Colorado State University, said the early start for deep tropical development between the Caribbean and Cabo Verde off Africa indicates hurricane season could be active this year.
“[E]arly season activity in deep tropics is often a harbinger of a busy season,” Klotzbach tweeted.
A big question is if warm Atlantic waters can generate strong enough storms to overcome wind shear produced by El Niño. Wind shear tends to tear apart storms.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 15:55 - Rand Paul: "Bill Gates Is Largest Funder Of Trying To Find Viruses In Caves And Bring Them To Big Cities"
Rand Paul: “Bill Gates Is Largest Funder Of Trying To Find Viruses In Caves And Bring Them To Big Cities”
Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,
Senator Rand Paul teed off on globalist Bill Gates Sunday, heavily intimating that the billionaire’s obsession with funding research into deadly viruses led directly to the COVID pandemic.
Appearing on Fox News, Paul noted that Gates visited China last week.
“Bill Gates is the largest funder of trying to find these viruses in remote caves and bring them to big cities,” Paul asserted, referring to gain of function research.
“So what happened in China is they went eight to 10 hours south of Wuhan, two to 300ft deep into a cave, found viruses, and took them back to a city of 15 million,” Paul further explained.
“There are many, many scientists who think that Bill Gates is wrong in funding this,” he added.
“We don’t need to be searching for viruses that may never interact with man. And it’s worse than that. They bring viruses that we may never interact with, they bring them back to the lab, but then they manipulate them by combining them with other viruses to create viruses that don’t exist in nature,” Paul continued.
“But this has largely been funded by Bill Gates. He funds the WHO more than most countries do. So there’s a responsibility there… I think he’s inadvertently helped to create something that the biggest danger to mankind right now is something that he’s been funding,” The Senator further noted.
Watch:
https://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=6329687328112&w=466&h=263Watch the latest video at foxnews.com
Paul was responding to reporting last week by Michael Shellenberger and Matt Taibbi that outlined how the first people to contract COVID were scientists working in the Wuhan virology lab.
“One of them, the one they think that was the first scientist to get sick, the first person to get sick, was one of the ones creating these new viruses, viruses not found in nature. This is the gain of function research. And so this essentially closes the deal,” Paul stated.
“What I’m going to try to pursue now is, whoever revealed this, if there’s documentation of this, it’s all supposed to be declassified tomorrow. And that legislation passed unanimously… if we can get those records, and actually put it out there for all the public to see that the first person that got sick was a scientist at the lab, then it’s a done deal,” the Senator continued.
“We know it came from the lab, and everybody can just admit it, but then we can move to the reform,” Paul further stated, adding “The reform is, we shouldn’t be funding this kind of research in China, but we also shouldn’t be funding this kind of research in the United States.”
“What we need is an international consortium of countries that will voluntarily agree to restrict this,” Paul emphasised, adding “The United States needs to restrict this. There are people estimating that, the next time this happens, the next time we have a leak from a lab, that between 5 and 50 percent of the population could die from another manmade virus.”
“This is very, very serious. This is up there with nuclear arms control. This is up there with the danger of nuclear war. But this is much more insidious,” The Senator urged.
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Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 15:20 - "Extreme Greed": A "Prescient Signal Of A Durable Economy" Or A Giant Bull Trap
“Extreme Greed”: A “Prescient Signal Of A Durable Economy” Or A Giant Bull Trap
Over the weekend, Goldman’s head of hedge fund sales Tony Pasquariello, wrote that while the Nasdaq was off to its best start in history…
… the easy money may have been made since “many folks – not all, but many – are now as long as they’ve been all year”, and with many shorts already stopped in, the price indiscriminate buying is largely behind us (more here).
Indeed, both objective and subjective measures of sentiment are starting to look very overbought and lofty: as we noted last week, the Goldman sentiment indicator into stretched territory (1.2), its highest level in years…
… the CNN/Fear greed indicator is in “extreme greed”, the highest rating in well over a year…
… and AAII Bull-Bear spread +22 at 1 year highs.
At the same time, Goldman’s Risk Appetite Indicator (GSRAII Index) has climbed above 0.8, driven by a sharp pro-cyclical repricing across assets, pushing the bank’s PC1 ‘Global Growth factor’ to the highest level since early 2021, but as Goldman’s Cecilia Mariotti cautions, “Markets have moved ahead of macro data – the current gap between PC1 and macro surprises as captured by the global MAP score is large” (full note available to pro subscribers).
Flows in to Goldman’s Prime Brokerage confirm both the directional movement and the frenzy behind it: of all the highlights, perhaps the most startling is the fundamental net length number where “Net leverage +2.2 pts on the week to 54.9% (100th percentile 1-year). Net buying in Macro Products was led by long buys – this week’s long buys were the largest in 3 months (while Single Stocks were modestly net sold for the first time in 6 weeks, led by short sales).” At the same time, fundamental L/S Gross leverage remains unchanged at 187.4% (97th percentile 1-year), indicating a scramble to go long both gross and net (more in the full Prime Insights note available to professional subs).
So is this one giant bull trap? Well, with the big central bank events now behind us – and with the Fed “skipping” if not pausing outright, the key catalyst for the market will be the ongoing focus on liquidity TGA/RRP; here Goldman’s Rich Pirvorotsky notes that things seem to be quite stable and as the bank’s research department puts it “Contrary to our expectations, bill yields (and some repo rates) have been settling above the RRP rate in many instances, incentivizing money funds to allocate away from the RRP facility to these higher yielding alternatives.”
This has resulted in a “sharp decline in RRP balances, taking these balances lower to levels last seen about a year ago”, and effectively funding much of the recent increase in the TGA, reducing the need for banks to drawdown on reserves.
That said, the next few weeks will be key to watch as data has likely been distorted by the June 15 tax payment; even so, to this point the liquidity drain has been pretty well tolerated (even with a sizeable increase in TGA on Friday, up $115BN).
Putting it all together, Goldman’s Privorotsky writes that it has been a “difficult tape for bears and last few weeks has been about level setting expectations from a baseline of 2H recession to soft landing. The relative rally in cyclicality versus defensives and the resurgence in value stocks leaves a show me story on the data while sizeable China stimulus hopes seem somewhat misplaced.”
His conclusion, after the VIX closed 13.54 on June expiry the lowest level since the Covid crash, “I wonder if we will look back on that as a prescient signal of a very durable economy or a local high of exuberance relative the range of uncertainty for the back half of the year.”
More in the full note available to professional subscribers.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 14:45 - In Another Potential Blow To Dollar Dominance, Kenyan President Urges Shift Away from Greenback In African Trade
In Another Potential Blow To Dollar Dominance, Kenyan President Urges Shift Away from Greenback In African Trade
Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,
Dollar doubts continue to grow, threatening the greenback’s perch at the top of the global financial system.
Last week, Kenyan President William Samoei Ruto suggested that African nations should shift away from using the dollar in intercontinental trade.
Ruto made the comments during an address before the Djibouti parliament, saying the two countries should abandon reliance on the dollar in trade.
How is US dollars part of the trade between Djibouti and Kenya? … Why is it necessary for us to buy things in Djibouti and pay in dollars? Why? There’s no reason.”
Ruto emphasized that he is not “against” the US dollar.
We just want to trade much more freely.”
He pointed out that the African Export–Import Bank (Afreximbank) provides a mechanism enabling traders on the continent to engage in trade using local currencies and said Kenya supports using a Pan-African payment and settlement system administered by the bank.
The Pan-African Payments and Settlement System (PAPSS) was launched in January 2022.
Ruto made similar comments in Nairobi earlier in the month
We are all struggling to make payments for goods and services from one country to another because of differences in currencies. And in the middle of all these, we are all subjected to a dollar environment.”
He went on to say that getting rid of the dollar middleman would allow African businessmen to concentrate on moving goods and services, “and leave the arduous task of currencies to Afreximbank.”
While the death of the dollar as the global reserve currency isn’t imminent, there is clearly a growing sentiment toward minimizing reliance on the US dollar worldwide.
For instance, last spring, China and Brazil announced a trade deal in their own currencies, completely bypassing the dollar. China also has dollarless trade agreements with Russia, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, BRICS nations are reportedly working to develop a “new currency.” According to a Russian spokesperson, the BRICS nations are developing a strategy that “does not defend the dollar or euro” and that “a single currency” would likely emerge within BRICS, pegged to gold or “other groups of products, rare-earth elements, or soil.”
An important BRICS summit will happen in August.
Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa make up the BRICS block. It accounts for about 40% of the global population and a quarter of the global GDP.
While BRICS influence remains relatively small, there is growing interest in the bloc. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov says that nearly 20 new countries have applied to join the BRICS alliance.
Ryabkov did not mention specific countries but said, “In our view, the Arab world and the Asia-Pacific region have been clearly ‘begging’ to join BRICS, as they have no representation there today.”
Former Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O’Neill coined the BRIC acronym. In a recent paper published by Global Policy Journal, he urged the expansion of BRICS.
“The US dollar plays a far too dominant role in global finance,” he wrote.
“Whenever the Federal Reserve Board has embarked on periods of monetary tightening, or the opposite, loosening, the consequences on the value of the dollar and the knock-on effects have been dramatic.”
It’s clear that many countries are trying to minimize their exposure to the dollar. Confidence in the greenback continues to erode thanks to the profligate borrowing, spending and money creation by the US government. America’s use of the dollar as a foreign policy weapon also makes many countries wary of relying solely on dollars.
This is a big problem for the US government.
Uncle Sam depends on the demand for dollars to underpin its profligate borrowing and spending. The only reason the US can get away with massive budget deficits and an ever-growing national debt to the extent that it does is due to the dollar’s role as the world reserve currency. It creates a built-in global demand for dollars and US Treasuries that absorb the money creation and maintain dollar strength. But what happens if that demand drops? What happens if BRICS develops its own currency and no longer needs dollars to trade?
If the demand for dollars tanks, the greenback’s value will quickly erode away. That means even worse price inflation for Americans. And in the worst-case scenario, it could collapse the dollar completely.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 14:10 - Russian Nukes Will Stay In Belarus Indefinitely: Kremlin
Russian Nukes Will Stay In Belarus Indefinitely: Kremlin
Russia’s foreign ministry announced on Monday that the tactical nuclear weapons controlled by Moscow and placed on Belarusian territory will be stationed there without time limit.
Both Presidents Putin and Lukashenko days ago confirmed delivery of the first batch of nuclear warheads to Belarus. The new deployment is in response to ‘aggressive policies’ from NATO countries, and had been initially announced after months ago the UK said it would supply Ukraine with depleted uranium shells.
Image: EPA/EFE Russian foreign ministry official Alexei Polishchuk said the move was a necessary “forced response” to the West upping its involvement in the Ukraine war, particularly through increasing supplies of heavier and heavier weapons systems, most recently tanks.
Polishchuk took the opportunity to once again blast Western nuclear hypocrisy, as other officials have done recently:
He noted that when the details of the Moscow-Minsk agreement were being ironed out, the two sides considered the “years-long destructive practices” of joint nuclear missions of NATO member states.
Polishchuk stressed, however, that “unlike American warheads in Europe,” Russia’s weapons will be located in close proximity to its own borders and on the territory of the Union State of Russia and Belarus.
But he also affirmed that it’s possible things could deescalate just as quickly as they’ve escalated, given the Russian tactical nukes can hypothetically be withdrawn from Belarus at any moment.
But this option would only be in response to the United States taking definitive action, as according to RT, he explained that “Moscow would only consider such an option if the US eliminated its own nuclear infrastructure in Europe.”
“Of course, such a step on our part would have to be preceded by the complete withdrawal of all American nuclear weapons back to US territory and by the elimination of all relevant infrastructure in Europe,” Polishchuk stated.
Back in March, President Putin said the following…
⚡️Putin: Russia is not transferring its nuclear weapons to Belarus, but is doing what the US has been doing for decades pic.twitter.com/vblLo2pJWI
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 25, 2023
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Based on NATO’s nuclear sharing mission, the US currently has nuclear warheads positioned in five non-nuclear weapon states, including Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Turkey.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 06/19/2023 – 13:35
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