- OECD Slashes Global Growth Outlook, Warns Germany Already In Recession
OECD Slashes Global Growth Outlook, Warns Germany Already In Recession
In one of the most downbeat forecasts on the global economy that we’ve seen so far this year, the Paris-based organization of wealthy nations known as the OECD – the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development – warned that the global economy is heading toward a recession, and that governments aren’t doing enough in terms of fiscal stimulus to try and boost the economy.
“Escalating trade policy tensions are taking an increasing toll on confidence and investment, adding to policy uncertainty, weighing on risk sentiment in financial markets, and endangering future growth prospects,” the OECD said.
The advocacy for fiscal stimulus follows reports that Germany is considering a “shadow budget” to bolster public investment as Europe’s economy slides.
“Our fear is that we are entering an era where growth is stuck at a very low level,” said OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone said. “Governments should absolutely take advantage of low rates to invest in the future now so that this sluggish growth doesn’t become the new normal.”
After cutting all of its forecasts from four months ago, the OECD now sees global growth slipping below 3% to 2.9%.
Of course, this pattern of cutting GDP forecasts is nothing new.
The OECD became the latest to warn about the global economy, after the Fed, the ECB and the PBOC have all eased policy to try and bolster growth in recent weeks. But the OECD is convinced that without government stimulus, the global economy is headed for a protracted downturn.
Manufacturing has born the brunt of the economic slowdown thanks to the tit-for-tat trade war between the US and China, while the services sector has proved unusually resilient so far. But the OECD warned that “persistent weakness” in industry will ultimately weigh on the labor market, dragging down household incomes and spending.
Not knowing whether the next Presidential tweet will ease or exacerbate tensions makes for an environment of extreme uncertainty, pushing businesses to turn cautious on investment and hiring, and households to switch from spending to saving.
“Trump’s brinkmanship on trade with China has left consumers, businesses and financial markets on edge.”
The OECD said “collective effort is urgent,” and the effectiveness of monetary policy could be enhanced by “stronger fiscal and structural policy support.”
According to CNBC, the OECD’s lower forecast for the EU was largely due to the slowdown in the bloc’s biggest economy, Germany, which was forecast to already be in a technical recession.
Of course, a report about global growth wouldn’t be complete without some Brexit fearmongering, and the OECD is no exception. If the UK leaves without a deal, as is widely expected across Europe, its economy will be 2% lower than otherwise in 2020-2021, even if the exit is relatively smooth.
It’s a point central bankers have made for months. Following the ECB’s latest monetary stimulus push, outgoing President Mario Draghi said it’s “high time” for fiscal policy to take charge, signaling there’s not much more the ECB can do. “The takeaway for the euro zone today is do not rely on monetary policy to do the job alone,” Boone said. “Start investing to do the structural reforms that need to be done for more sustainable growth, and do it now.”
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/20/2019 – 02:45 - Electric Cars Make Norway A Climate Champ – But It's All A Sham
Electric Cars Make Norway A Climate Champ – But It’s All A Sham
Authored by Sarah Cowgill via Liberty Nation,
Norwegians may be taking the lead in “green” car sales, but they’re keeping their gas hogs, too…
When cornered by curious free-thinking types, political climate zealots often point to the beautiful, progressive country of Norway as the standard to achieve. And what a tremendous record they have in combating the fossil fuel spouting carbon emissions. In the past year, 49.8 % of all cars purchased in the country are electric vehicles (EVs) – not hybrid.
Norway, with a population of only five million people, is now the world’s third-largest electric car market.
And Norway smokes the countries one would expect to lead the charge. For instance, only 2.1% of new cars registered in the US last year were EVs and, scraping the bottom of the barrel, our climate justice warriors across the pond – the European Union – are showing a depressing sales number of 0.9 %.
The Greenbacks In Green Politics
The real scoop is not all as favorable for eliminating fossil fuels as it is nuanced for public viewing. It seems that the government in Oslo is re-appropriating billions of oil export dollars to offset weight, Co2 taxes, and fees of Tesla cars entering the country for purchase. By comparison, the typical Audi entering Norway after government add-ons costs the consumer about $35,000. The Tesla – a $75,000 vehicle – is selling for less.
A major part of this gig is that purchasers are elevated to near super special road warriors – buy an electric car and receive the benefits of lower road tax, zip through toll roads without tossing a kroner into the change basket, and land free parking spots on ferries – well, pretty much free parking everywhere.
Yet this $2 billion yearly “incentive” isn’t taking regular combustion engines off the roads. Instead, folks with gas guzzlers are taking advantage of the government program to add a vehicle to their collection. Two-thirds of purchasers haven’t unloaded their carbon belching climate destroyers – they are still on the roads. As for Norwegians opting for the one-car garage, well, they stick to the good old-fashioned fossil fuel models.
Perhaps it’s due to the ironic fact that Norway is one of the world’s top oil exporters and the second-largest peddler of natural gas.
Awkward.
Denmark gave this economic boondoggle a whirl in 2015, and they sold remarkably well the first year. Subsequent years, post freebies, sales withered rather dramatically. In one year, EV purchases dropped more than 80% — but perhaps Norway has a better deal for their folks.
Proud Tesla owners in Norway are the talk of the green people everywhere. Appearing so progressive, so environmentally conscience, so superior as they speed along in the bus lanes – yep, that’s part of the deal too – passing the commoner plugging along in his or her so 2018 model SUV. Ah, saving the world is simply sublime, and we should all bow down to the nation setting the gold standard on saving the world. Just don’t look too closely at that other rig still sitting in the garage of your everyday average climate hero.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/20/2019 – 02:00 - Martial Law Masquerading As Law And Order: The Police State's Language Of Force
Martial Law Masquerading As Law And Order: The Police State’s Language Of Force
Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,
“Since when have we Americans been expected to bow submissively to authority and speak with awe and reverence to those who represent us? The constitutional theory is that we the people are the sovereigns, the state and federal officials only our agents. We who have the final word can speak softly or angrily. We can seek to challenge and annoy, as we need not stay docile and quiet.”
– Justice William O. Douglas, dissenting, Colten v. Kentucky, 407 U.S. 104 (1972)
Forget everything you’ve ever been taught about free speech in America.
It’s all a lie.
There can be no free speech for the citizenry when the government speaks in a language of force.
What is this language of force?
Militarized police. Riot squads. Camouflage gear. Black uniforms. Armored vehicles. Mass arrests. Pepper spray. Tear gas. Batons. Strip searches. Surveillance cameras. Kevlar vests. Drones. Lethal weapons. Less-than-lethal weapons unleashed with deadly force. Rubber bullets. Water cannons. Stun grenades. Arrests of journalists. Crowd control tactics. Intimidation tactics. Brutality.
This is not the language of freedom.
This is not even the language of law and order.
This is the language of force.
Unfortunately, this is how the government at all levels—federal, state and local—now responds to those who choose to exercise their First Amendment right to peacefully assemble in public and challenge the status quo.
This police overkill isn’t just happening in troubled hot spots such as Ferguson, Mo., and Baltimore, Md., where police brutality gave rise to civil unrest, which was met with a militarized show of force that caused the whole stew of discontent to bubble over into violence.
A decade earlier, the NYPD engaged in mass arrests of peaceful protesters, bystanders, legal observers and journalists who had gathered for the 2004 Republican National Convention. The protesters were subjected to blanket fingerprinting and detained for more than 24 hours at a “filthy, toxic pier that had been a bus depot.” That particular exercise in police intimidation tactics cost New York City taxpayers nearly $18 million for what would become the largest protest settlement in history.
Demonstrators, journalists and legal observers who had gathered in North Dakota to peacefully protest the Dakota Access Pipeline reported being pepper sprayed, beaten with batons, and strip searched by police.
In the college town of Charlottesville, Va., protesters who took to the streets to peacefully express their disapproval of a planned KKK rally were held at bay by implacable lines of gun-wielding riot police. Only after a motley crew of Klansmen had been safely escorted to and from the rally by black-garbed police did the assembled army of city, county and state police declare the public gathering unlawful and proceed to unleash canisters of tear gas on the few remaining protesters to force them to disperse.
More recently, this militarized exercise in intimidation—complete with an armored vehicle and an army of police drones—reared its ugly head in the small town of Dahlonega, Ga., where 600 state and local militarized police clad in full riot gear vastly outnumbered the 50 protesters and 150 counterprotesters who had gathered to voice their approval/disapproval of the Trump administration’s policies.
To be clear, this is the treatment being meted out to protesters across the political spectrum.
The police state does not discriminate.
As a USA Today article notes, “Federally arming police with weapons of war silences protesters across all justice movements… People demanding justice, demanding accountability or demanding basic human rights without resorting to violence, should not be greeted with machine guns and tanks. Peaceful protest is democracy in action. It is a forum for those who feel disempowered or disenfranchised. Protesters should not have to face intimidation by weapons of war.”
A militarized police response to protesters poses a danger to all those involved, protesters and police alike. In fact, militarization makes police more likely to turn to violence to solve problems.
As a study by researchers at Stanford University makes clear, “When law enforcement receives more military materials — weapons, vehicles and tools — it becomes … more likely to jump into high-risk situations. Militarization makes every problem — even a car of teenagers driving away from a party — look like a nail that should be hit with an AR-15 hammer.”
Even the color of a police officer’s uniform adds to the tension. As the Department of Justice reports, “Some research has suggested that the uniform color can influence the wearer—with black producing aggressive tendencies, tendencies that may produce unnecessary conflict between police and the very people they serve.”
You want to turn a peaceful protest into a riot?
Bring in the militarized police with their guns and black uniforms and warzone tactics and “comply or die” mindset. Ratchet up the tension across the board. Take what should be a healthy exercise in constitutional principles (free speech, assembly and protest) and turn it into a lesson in authoritarianism.
Mind you, those who respond with violence are playing into the government’s hands perfectly.
The government wants a reason to crack down and lock down and bring in its biggest guns.
They want us divided. They want us to turn on one another.
They want us powerless in the face of their artillery and armed forces.
They want us silent, servile and compliant.
They certainly do not want us to remember that we have rights, let alone attempting to exercise those rights peaceably and lawfully.
And they definitely do not want us to engage in First Amendment activities that challenge the government’s power, reveal the government’s corruption, expose the government’s lies, and encourage the citizenry to push back against the government’s many injustices.
You know how one mayor characterized the tear gassing of protesters by riot police? He called it an “unfortunate event.”
Unfortunate, indeed.
You know what else is unfortunate?
It’s unfortunate that these overreaching, heavy-handed lessons in how to rule by force have become standard operating procedure for a government that communicates with its citizenry primarily through the language of brutality, intimidation and fear.
It’s unfortunate that “we the people” have become the proverbial nails to be hammered into submission by the government and its vast armies.
And it’s particularly unfortunate that government officials—especially police—seem to believe that anyone who wears a government uniform (soldier, police officer, prison guard) must be obeyed without question.
In other words, “we the people” are the servants in the government’s eyes rather than the masters.
The government’s rationale goes like this:
Do exactly what I say, and we’ll get along fine. Do not question me or talk back in any way. You do not have the right to object to anything I may say or ask you to do, or ask for clarification if my demands are unclear or contradictory. You must obey me under all circumstances without hesitation, no matter how arbitrary, unreasonable, discriminatory, or blatantly racist my commands may be. Anything other than immediate perfect servile compliance will be labeled as resisting arrest, and expose you to the possibility of a violent reaction from me. That reaction could cause you severe injury or even death. And I will suffer no consequences. It’s your choice: Comply, or die.
Indeed, as Officer Sunil Dutta of the Los Angeles Police Department advises:
If you don’t want to get shot, tased, pepper-sprayed, struck with a baton or thrown to the ground, just do what I tell you. Don’t argue with me, don’t call me names, don’t tell me that I can’t stop you, don’t say I’m a racist pig, don’t threaten that you’ll sue me and take away my badge. Don’t scream at me that you pay my salary, and don’t even think of aggressively walking towards me.
This is not the rhetoric of a government that is of the people, by the people, and for the people.
This is not the attitude of someone who understands, let alone respects, free speech.
And this is certainly not what I would call “community policing,” which is supposed to emphasize the importance of the relationship between the police and the community they serve.
Indeed, this is martial law masquerading as law and order.
Any police officer who tells you that he needs tanks, SWAT teams, and pepper spray to do his job shouldn’t be a police officer in a constitutional republic.
All that stuff in the First Amendment (about freedom of speech, religion, press, peaceful assembly and the right to petition the government for a redress of grievances) sounds great in theory. However, it amounts to little more than a hill of beans if you have to exercise those freedoms while facing down an army of police equipped with deadly weapons, surveillance devices, and a slew of laws that empower them to arrest and charge citizens with bogus “contempt of cop” charges (otherwise known as asserting your constitutional rights).
It doesn’t have to be this way.
There are other, far better models to follow.
For instance, back in 2011, the St. Louis police opted to employ a passive response to Occupy St. Louis activists. First, police gave the protesters nearly 36 hours’ notice to clear the area, as opposed to the 20 to 60 minutes’ notice other cities gave. Then, as journalist Brad Hicks reports, when the police finally showed up:
They didn’t show up in riot gear and helmets, they showed up in shirt sleeves with their faces showing. They not only didn’t show up with SWAT gear, they showed up with no unusual weapons at all, and what weapons they had all securely holstered. They politely woke everybody up. They politely helped everybody who was willing to remove their property from the park to do so. They then asked, out of the 75 to 100 people down there, how many people were volunteering for being-arrested duty? Given 33 hours to think about it, and 10 hours to sweat it over, only 27 volunteered. As the police already knew, those people’s legal advisers had advised them not to even passively resist, so those 27 people lined up to be peacefully arrested, and were escorted away by a handful of cops. The rest were advised to please continue to protest, over there on the sidewalk … and what happened next was the most absolutely brilliant piece of crowd control policing I have heard of in my entire lifetime. All of the cops who weren’t busy transporting and processing the voluntary arrestees lined up, blocking the stairs down into the plaza. They stood shoulder to shoulder. They kept calm and silent. They positioned the weapons on their belts out of sight. They crossed their hands low in front of them, in exactly the least provocative posture known to man. And they peacefully, silently, respectfully occupied the plaza, using exactly the same non-violent resistance techniques that the protesters themselves had been trained in.
As Forbes concluded, “This is a more humane, less costly, and ultimately more productive way to handle a protest. This is great proof that police can do it the old fashioned way – using their brains and common sense instead of tanks, SWAT teams, and pepper spray – and have better results.”
It can be done.
Police will not voluntarily give up their gadgets and war toys and combat tactics, however. Their training and inclination towards authoritarianism has become too ingrained.
If we are to have any hope of dismantling the police state, change must start locally, community by community. Citizens will have to demand that police de-escalate and de-militarize. And if the police don’t listen, contact your city councils and put the pressure on them.
Remember, they are supposed to work for us. They might not like hearing it—they certainly won’t like being reminded of it—but we pay their salaries with our hard-earned tax dollars.
“We the people” have got to stop accepting the lame excuses trotted out by police as justifications for their inexcusable behavior.
Either “we the people” believe in free speech or we don’t.
Either we live in a constitutional republic or a police state.
We have rights.
As Justice William O. Douglas advised in his dissent in Colten v. Kentucky, “we need not stay docile and quiet” in the face of authority.
The Constitution does not require Americans to be servile or even civil to government officials.
Neither does the Constitution require obedience (although it does insist on nonviolence).
This emphasis on nonviolence goes both ways. Somehow, the government keeps overlooking this important element in the equation.
There is nothing safe or secure or free about exercising your rights with a rifle pointed at you.
The police officer who has been trained to shoot first and ask questions later, oftentimes based only on their highly subjective “feeling” of being threatened, is just as much of a danger—if not more—as any violence that might erupt from a protest rally.
Compliance is no guarantee of safety.
Then again, as I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, if we just cower before government agents and meekly obey, we may find ourselves following in the footsteps of those nations that eventually fell to tyranny.
The alternative involves standing up and speaking truth to power. Jesus Christ walked that road. So did Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King Jr., and countless other freedom fighters whose actions changed the course of history.
Indeed, had Christ merely complied with the Roman police state, there would have been no crucifixion and no Christian religion. Had Gandhi meekly fallen in line with the British Empire’s dictates, the Indian people would never have won their independence.
Had Martin Luther King Jr. obeyed the laws of his day, there would have been no civil rights movement. And if the founding fathers had marched in lockstep with royal decrees, there would have been no American Revolution.
We must adopt a different mindset and follow a different path if we are to alter the outcome of these interactions with police.
The American dream was built on the idea that no one is above the law, that our rights are inalienable and cannot be taken away, and that our government and its appointed agents exist to serve us.
It may be that things are too far gone to save, but still we must try.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2019 – 23:45 - Plastic Apocalypse: Alarming Levels Of Plastic Found In Children
Plastic Apocalypse: Alarming Levels Of Plastic Found In Children
In the last several months we have been one of the first to cover the plastic apocalypse.
New studies are being published that detail high levels of dangerous microplastics had been detected in some of the most remote regions of the world. Another study warned microplastics are turning up in human stool. Now there are new reports that show high levels of microplastics have been found in blood and urine samples of children.
The study, conducted by the German Environment Ministry and the Robert Koch Institute, found an alarming 97% of blood and urine samples from 2,500 children tested between 2014 and 2017 had traces of microplastics.
Der Spiegel, the German weekly magazine, published the findings over the weekend, which were part of a national study focused on “human biomonitoring” of 3 to 17-year-olds, found traces of 11 out of 15 plastic ingredients in the collected samples.
“Our study clearly shows that plastic ingredients, which are rising in production, are also showing up more and more in the body. It is really worrying that the youngest children are most affected as the most sensitive group,” Marike Kolossa-Gehring, one of the study’s authors, told the magazine.
Researchers found perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), also used in cleaning products, waterproof clothing, food packaging, and cooking utensils, was present in the blood and urine samples.
Half the plastics ever produced have been made in the last 15 years, & the substance is taking over Earth: Researchers just discovered microplastic in the remote Arctic: https://t.co/PNSVoeLuTA
That’s bad, but it’s just the tip of the iceberg. pic.twitter.com/EaKeFnWHiD
via WIRED— Tomthunkit™ (@TomthunkitsMind) September 17, 2019
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
PFOA has been described as a dangerous chemical that is toxic to the liver. The EU will outlaw the substance next year.
In at least 20% of the 2,500 children tested, microplastics were above safe government limits. Children from low-income regions were more susceptible to ingesting plastics than ones from the middle class and wealthy areas.
“It can not be that every fourth child between the ages of three and five is so heavily burdened with chemicals that long-term damage cannot be reliably ruled out,” said Hoffmann, adding that “the Federal Government must make every effort to protect people from harmful chemicals.”
Der Spiegel said the study hadn’t been published, and the results were only made available by the government upon request by the Green Party.
Hoffmann said there’s not enough research on how microplastics affect the body, and how exactly they’re ingested.
As far as environmental and health impacts of microplastics, these three studies could suggest a silent plastic apocalypse has infected Earth.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2019 – 23:25 - Escobar: How The Houthis Overturned The Chessboard
Escobar: How The Houthis Overturned The Chessboard
Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Saker blog,
The Yemeni Shiite group’s spectacular attack on Abqaiq raises the distinct possibility of a push to drive the House of Saud from power
A Yemeni Shiite man holds his weapon and a flag with an Arabic inscription reading ‘Disgrace is far from us,’ as he takes part in a religious procession held by Houthi rebels to mark the first day of Ashura. Photo: Hani Al-Ansi/dpa
We are the Houthis and we’re coming to town. With the spectacular attack on Abqaiq, Yemen’s Houthis have overturned the geopolitical chessboard in Southwest Asia – going as far as introducing a whole new dimension: the distinct possibility of investing in a push to drive the House of Saud out of power.
Blowback is a bitch. Houthis – Zaidi Shiites from northern Yemen – and Wahhabis have been at each other’s throats for ages. This book is absolutely essential to understand the mind-boggling complexity of Houthi tribes; as a bonus, it places the turmoil in southern Arabian lands way beyond a mere Iran-Saudi proxy war.
Still, it’s always important to consider that Arab Shiites in the Eastern province – working in Saudi oil installations – have got to be natural allies of the Houthis fighting against Riyadh.
Houthi striking capability – from drone swarms to ballistic missile attacks – has been improving remarkably for the past year or so. It’s not by accident that the UAE saw which way the geopolitical and geoeconomic winds were blowing: Abu Dhabi withdrew from Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s vicious war against Yemen and now is engaged in what it describes as a “peace-first” strategy.
Even before Abqaiq, the Houthis had already engineered quite a few attacks against Saudi oil installations as well as Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports. In early July, Yemen’s Operations Command Center staged an exhibition in full regalia in Sana’a featuring their whole range of ballistic and winged missiles and drones.
The Saudi Ministry of Defense displays drones and parts from missiles used in the refinery attack.
The situation has now reached a point where there’s plenty of chatter across the Persian Gulf about a spectacular scenario: the Houthis investing in a mad dash across the Arabian desert to capture Mecca and Medina in conjunction with a mass Shiite uprising in the Eastern oil belt. That’s not far-fetched anymore. Stranger things have happened in the Middle East. After all, the Saudis can’t even win a bar brawl – that’s why they rely on mercenaries.
Orientalism strikes again
The US intel refrain that the Houthis are incapable of such a sophisticated attack betrays the worst strands of orientalism and white man’s burden/superiority complex.
The only missile parts shown by the Saudis so far come from a Yemeni Quds 1 cruise missile. According to Brigadier General Yahya Saree, spokesman for the Sana’a-based Yemeni Armed Forces, “the Quds system proved its great ability to hit its targets and to bypass enemy interceptor systems.”
This satellite overview handout image from the US government shows damage to oil/gas infrastructure from weekend drone attacks at Abqaiq.
Houthi armed forces duly claimed responsibility for Abqaiq: “This operation is one of the largest operations carried out by our forces in the depth of Saudi Arabia, and came after an accurate intelligence operation and advance monitoring and cooperation of honorable and free men within the Kingdom.”
Notice the key concept: “cooperation” from inside Saudi Arabia – which could include the whole spectrum from Yemenis to that Eastern province Shiites.
Even more relevant is the fact that massive American hardware deployed in Saudi Arabia inside out and outside in – satellites, AWACS, Patriot missiles, drones, battleships, jet fighters – didn’t see a thing, or certainly not in time. The sighting of three “loitering” drones by a Kuwaiti bird hunter arguably heading towards Saudi Arabia is being invoked as “evidence”. Cue to the embarrassing picture of a drone swarm – wherever it came from – flying undisturbed for hours over Saudi territory.
UN officials openly admit that now everything that matters is within the 1,500 km range of the Houthis’ new UAV-X drone: oil fields in Saudi Arabia, a still-under-construction nuclear power plant in the Emirates and Dubai’s mega-airport.
My conversations with sources in Tehran over the past two years have ascertained that the Houthis’ new drones and missiles are essentially copies of Iranian designs assembled in Yemen itself with crucial help from Hezbollah engineers.
US intel insists that 17 drones and cruise missiles were launched in combination from southern Iran. In theory, Patriot radar would have picked that up and knocked the drones/missiles from the sky. So far, absolutely no record of this trajectory has been revealed. Military experts generally agree that the radar on the Patriot missile is good, but its success rate is “disputed” – to say the least. What’s important, once again, is that the Houthis do have advanced offensive missiles. And their pinpoint accuracy at Abqaiq was uncanny.
This satellite overview handout image shows damage to oil/gas infrastructure from weekend drone attacks at Abqaiq in Saudi Arabia. Courtesy of Planet Labs Inc
For now, it appears that the winner of the US/UK-supported House of One Saudi war on the civilian Yemeni population, which started in March 2015 and generated a humanitarian crisis the UN regards as having been of biblical proportions, is certainly not the crown prince, widely known as MBS.
Listen to the general
Crude oil stabilization towers – several of them – at Abqaiq were specifically targeted, along with natural gas storage tanks. Persian Gulf energy sources have been telling me repairs and/or rebuilding could last months. Even Riyadh admitted as much.
Blindly blaming Iran, with no evidence, does not cut it. Tehran can count on swarms of top strategic thinkers. They do not need or want to blow up Southwest Asia, which is something they could do, by the way: Revolutionary Guards generals have already said many times on the record that they are ready for war.
Professor Mohammad Marandi from the University of Tehran, who has very close relations with the Foreign Ministry, is adamant: “It didn’t come from Iran. If it did, it would be very embarrassing for the Americans, showing they are unable to detect a large number of Iranian drones and missiles. That doesn’t make sense.”
Marandi additionally stresses, “Saudi air defenses are not equipped to defend the country from Yemen but from Iran. The Yemenis have been striking against the Saudis, they are getting better and better, developing drone and missile technology for four and a half years, and this was a very soft target.”
A soft – and unprotected – target: the US PAC-2 and PAC-3 systems in place are all oriented towards the east, in the direction of Iran. Neither Washington nor Riyadh knows for sure where the drone swarm/missiles really came from.
Readers should pay close attention to this groundbreaking interview with General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force. The interview, in Farsi (with English subtitles), was conducted by US-sanctioned Iranian intellectual Nader Talebzadeh and includes questions forwarded by my US analyst friends Phil Giraldi and Michael Maloof and myself.
Explaining Iranian self-sufficiency in its defense capabilities, Hajizadeh sounds like a very rational actor. The bottom line:
“Our view is that neither American politicians nor our officials want a war. If an incident like the one with the drone [the RQ-4N shot down by Iran in June] happens or a misunderstanding happens, and that develops into a larger war, that’s a different matter. Therefore we are always ready for a big war.”
In response to one of my questions, on what message the Revolutionary Guards want to convey, especially to the US, Hajizadeh does not mince his words: “In addition to the US bases in various regions like Afghanistan, Iraq, Kuwait, Emirates and Qatar, we have targeted all naval vessels up to a distance of 2,000 kilometers and we are constantly monitoring them. They think that if they go to a distance of 400 km, they are out of our firing range. Wherever they are, it only takes one spark, we hit their vessels, their airbases, their troops.”
Get your S-400s or else
On the energy front, Tehran has been playing a very precise game under pressure – selling loads of oil by turning off the transponders of their tankers as they leave Iran and transferring the oil at sea, tanker to tanker, at night, and relabeling their cargo as originating at other producers for a price. I have been checking this for weeks with my trusted Persian Gulf traders – and they all confirm it. Iran could go on doing it forever.
Of course, the Trump administration knows it. But the fact is they are looking the other way. To state it as concisely as possible: they are caught in a trap by the absolute folly of ditching the JCPOA, and they are looking for a face-saving way out. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned the administration in so many words: the US should return to the agreement it reneged on before it’s too late.
And now for the really hair-raising part.
The strike at Abqaiq shows that the entire Middle East production of over 18 million barrels of oil a day – including Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia – can be easily knocked out. There is zero adequate defense against these drones and missiles.
Well, there’s always Russia.
Here’s what happened at the press conference after the Ankara summit this week on Syria, uniting Presidents Putin, Rouhani and Erdogan.
Question: Will Russia provide Saudi Arabia with any help or support in restoring its infrastructure?
President Putin: As for assisting Saudi Arabia, it is also written in the Quran that violence of any kind is illegitimate except when protecting one’s people. In order to protect them and the country, we are ready to provide the necessary assistance to Saudi Arabia. All the political leaders of Saudi Arabia have to do is take a wise decision, as Iran did by buying the S-300 missile system, and as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did when he bought Russia’s latest S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft system. They would offer reliable protection for any Saudi infrastructure facilities.
President Hassan Rouhani: So do they need to buy the S-300 or the S-400?
President Vladimir Putin: It is up to them to decide [laughs].
In The Transformation of War, Martin van Creveld actually predicted that the whole industrial-military-security complex would come crumbling down when it was exposed that most of its weapons are useless against fourth-generation asymmetrical opponents. There’s no question the whole Global South is watching – and will have gotten the message.
Hybrid war, reloaded
Now we are entering a whole new dimension in asymmetric hybrid war.
In the – horrendous – event that Washington would decide to attack Iran, egged on by the usual neocon suspects, the Pentagon could never hope to hit and disable all the Iranian and/or Yemeni drones. The US could expect, for sure, all-out war. And then no ships would sail through the Strait of Hormuz. We all know the consequences of that.
Which brings us to The Big Surprise. The real reason there would be no ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz is that there would be no oil in the Gulf left to pump. The oil fields, having been bombed, would be burning.
So we’re back to the realistic bottom line, which has been stressed by not only Moscow and Beijing but also Paris and Berlin: US President Donald Trump gambled big time, and he lost. Now he must find a face-saving way out. If the War Party allows it.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2019 – 23:05 - Guatemala: 'We're Not Just A Drug Trafficking Hub – We Produce Tons Of Cocaine Too!'
Guatemala: ‘We’re Not Just A Drug Trafficking Hub – We Produce Tons Of Cocaine Too!’
Guatemala Interior Minister Enrique Degenhart admitted this week that the country isn’t just a transit point for drug traffickers – they are now a cocaine producing nation too, according to Reuters, which notes that production has almost exclusively been limited to Colombia, Peru and Bolivia.
Degenhart’s comments were prompted by the discovery of around 1.3 million cocoa plants in the country’s tropical hillsides after the government gave emergency powers to the military in the eastern region of the country after the murder of three soldiers earlier this month. Authorities said the soldiers were ambushed by drug traffickers.
The coca plants were found in remote stretches of the municipalities of Livingston on the Caribbean coast and El Estor, which sits on a lake popular with tourists and is where the soldiers were killed.
“The plantations were located in a mountainous area, which took three hours to get to on foot,” police spokesman Jorge Aguilar told Reuters.
Aguilar said he did not know how much territory the plantations covered. Last year, Reuters reported that a one hectare “trial” plantation containing 75,000 coca plants had been found in Guatemala. –Reuters
Guatemalan authorities declined to state which criminal groups they believed were involved in the production.
Since declaring the state of emergency, authorities have arrested 342 people and seized 57 motorcycles, 38 other vehicles and 52 firearms. Two cocaine processing labs were also destroyed according to a police statement.
The country has long been a major transit route for cocaine and other drugs, as traffickers have bought significant influence over authorities at all levels of government. As such, Guatemala has had great difficulty controlling the traffickers despite the support of the United States.
“Following the discovery of these narco-laboratories and the different fields with the coca plants, Guatemala now becomes a cocaine producer and that puts Guatemala in a totally different situation with respect to regional security,” said Degenhart.
The crops were discovered after authorities found small cocoa fields in the country – which were “apparent trials by drug trafficking cartels to explore reducing transportation costs and the risks of moving the product from distant Andean nations to the United States.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2019 – 22:45 - Chinese Scientists Have Allegedly Developed A Weapon For "Crowd Control"
Chinese Scientists Have Allegedly Developed A Weapon For “Crowd Control”
Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,
Chinese scientists are claiming that they’ve invented the world’s first sonic weapon to control people by causing bodily discomfort. The rifle-shaped instrument, which was jointly developed with military and law enforcement, is designed to disperse crowds using focused waves of low-frequency sound, the academy’s Technical Institute of Physics and Chemistry website said on Wednesday.
According to the South China Morning Post, the device’s “biological effect” would cause extreme discomfort, with vibrations in the eardrums, eyeballs, stomach, liver, and brain, scientists said. Studies dating to the 1940s found that low-frequency sound energy could cause dizziness, headaches, vomiting, bowel spasms, involuntary defecation, organ damage, and heart attacks. This all depends on frequency and exposure, but in Communist China, it really isn’t likely much thought will be given to the health of the slaves the government intends to use this on.
The Chinese government launched the sonic weapon program back in 2017 and its conclusion is likely to be related to the months of anti-government protests in Hong Kong, regardless of what the state-owned media is claiming. That means the government intends to use the force and violence to control people protesting their use of force and violence.
Typically, sonic weapons are incredibly large and have to be mounted on vehicles. Until the Chinese developed this new device, which has no moving parts, they were also powered by electricity to drive a magnetic coil in order to generate energy. This meant they needed a large and stable source of power. But not anymore.
People demanding their freedom has compelled the masters to come up with more ways to continue the enslavement of others.
So far, there have not been reports of the Chinese government using this weapon on people. That could all change soon as people slowly begin to realize the nature of government is to be violent and controlling and keep people from figuring out that they are slaves. It would likely take very little for the government to use this device against its own people.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2019 – 22:25 - Grade-Rigging Scandal: Baltimore Students Missed 100+ Days Of School, Failed Classes, Still Graduated
Grade-Rigging Scandal: Baltimore Students Missed 100+ Days Of School, Failed Classes, Still Graduated
For the last several years, we have been covering the grade-changing scandal in Baltimore City Public Schools (BCPS). Administrators, teachers, and parents continue to come forward about the widespread fraud that allows children to graduate, even though they’ve missed school or failed classes.
Project Baltimore, who has spearheaded the investigation into BCPS fraud, has uncovered another school where students missed more than 100 days of class or failed ten courses in three years, still graduated during the 2019 school year.
City Schools CEO Dr. Sonja Santelises accuses Project Baltimore of “sensationalism” and has “violated even the lowest standard of decency.” Fox45 requested an interview with Dr. Santelises concerning the allegations; we haven’t heard back. https://t.co/ARaC73uyxt
— FOX Baltimore (@FOXBaltimore) September 17, 2019
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
The school in focus is called Joseph C. Briscoe, and it’s a special needs school with just 79 students. The budget for the school is $4.3 million, which means on any given school year, the city spends $54,524 per pupil. By comparison, the Baltimore Polytechnic Institute, a top BCPS high school, spends about $7,000 per student.
“That should be the number one goal that they get the right education,” a Briscoe teacher told Project Baltimore.
Project Baltimore said the teacher who has come forward about the fraud doesn’t want to be identified because she fears BCPS will retaliate.
She said, Joseph C. Briscoe is a troubled school with at least 89% of its students were “chronically absent.” The four-year graduation rate is at 5%, the teacher said students need help, but BCPS is making sure they are just pushed through.
“If they can’t read and you’re not giving them a type of trade or skill, and you’re pushing them through the system, where will that leave them at once they graduate or get the certificate from the school, in life? Like how will they survive?”
The teacher said six students graduated this year, one student was late 110 days his senior year and failed science. But his transcript shows he passed with a D-.
“The diploma is getting devalued,” said the teacher who claims to have witnessed grades being changed. “So, the diploma value is not worth a lot.”
Project Baltimore received a secret recording of a conversation from inside the school shortly before graduation this year. The transcript below shows how administrators altered the grades of one student so he could pass.
“He couldn’t have any work because he wasn’t here,” says someone in the recording.
When it was explained the student never did extra work, the question is asked, “What can we do?”
The response was, “So, we have to do a grade change? Is the final grade in there right now?
“Yes,” someone replies.
The teacher told Project Baltimore that the student who had their grade change didn’t deserve the grade. His report card showed he failed ten classes in the last three years and missed an abnormal amount of days but still received a certificate of program completion. “Certificates are listed in Maryland law as an alternative to the traditional diploma. They don’t count toward a school’s graduation rates, but students can take part in the ceremony,” said Project Baltimore.
The student in focus said he missed 110 days of school his senior year out of 180 total days. When asked if he felt like he deserved to graduate, the student answered, “Not really.”
He went on to state, “I understand what you’re saying, but I’m actually happy. To be honest, I didn’t think I was going to make it.”
Project Baltimore requested an interview with BCPS administrators; instead, they received this statement:
“We received your request for an interview about Joseph C. Briscoe Academy. Since then, we learned that a reporter from the station went to the homes of Joseph C. Briscoe alumni, intruding on their privacy. We understand the reporter has confidential student records and directly questioned the students. We are investigating how these records may have been received. We also disagree with the reporter’s approach to this story. Given this context, we are denying your request for an interview at this time.”
Project Baltimore is associated with WBFF 45, a Fox-affiliated television station licensed to Baltimore and serves as the flagship station of the Sinclair Broadcast Group, a pro-Trump, conservative company. Project Baltimore has been used by WBFF 45/Sinclair to expose fraud in the democrat controlled city.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2019 – 22:05 - "Catastrophic Flooding" Threatens Heart Of Texas Oil Industry
“Catastrophic Flooding” Threatens Heart Of Texas Oil Industry
Submitted by Nick Cunningham of OilPrice.com
Flooding from a tropical storm hit the Houston area on Thursday, with some calling the situation worse than Hurricane Harvey.
Heavy rainfall inundated the Texas coast, flooding Houston and Beaumont, home to massive oil refining, petrochemical and export facilities. The storm was downgraded to just a tropical depression, but those classifications only measure wind speed. The real threat from Imelda was “major, catastrophic flooding,” according to the National Weather Service.
“Extremely persistent thunderstorms” created the potential for 6 to 12 inches of rain, with higher levels in certain areas. “Storm total rainfall could be in excess of two feet for some areas before the weather finally begins to improve!” the NWS said in a notice. The forecast predicted that through Friday, some parts could see rain reach as high as 25 to 35 inches.
But the Texas Department of Transportation said on Thursday that 41 inches of rain had already hit the area between Beaumont and the town of Winnie (between Beaumont and Houston).
The sudden and rapid flooding of the area caught many by surprise, with thousands of people trapped in their homes and cars. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said that the floods have “caused widespread and severe property damage and threatens loss of life.” He declared a state of disaster across 13 counties. The slow-moving nature of the storm meant that intense rain continued to pummel the region.
The intense flooding echoes the 2017 catastrophe from Hurricane Harvey, which submerged Houston with 50 inches of rain. In fact, some people said current flooding conditions are even worse. “What I’m sitting in right now makes Harvey look like a little thunderstorm,” Chambers County Sheriff Brian Hawthorne told ABC13, a local ABC affiliate. “It’s dire out here. I’m fearful for this community right now.”
Hurricane Harvey left widespread destruction in its wake, including to a string of oil refineries and petrochemical complexes that dot the Texas and Louisiana Coast. It was the most powerful hurricane to hit Texas in decades and dumped a year’s worth of rain on the Houston area in just a few days. Nearly 4 million barrels per day of refining capacity was knocked offline, with several facilities taking weeks to recover. WTI prices plunged as crude oil became trapped, left unprocessed and with nowhere to go.
Disruptions from Tropical Depression Imelda won’t rival those of Hurricane Harvey, but heavy industry has indeed been affected.
ExxonMobil said on Thursday that it was shutting down its 370,000-bpd Beaumont, Texas refinery because of flooding. “Exxon Mobil’s Beaumont refinery and chemical complex is conducting a preliminary assessment to determine the impact of the storm,” an Exxon spokesman said. “The Beaumont chemical plant has completed a safe and systematic shutdown of its units.”
Other refineries continued to operate normally. Valero said its Port Arthur refinery did not see disruptions.
The outage will likely be only temporary, and energy markets probably won’t skip a beat, with focus rightly concentrated on the Middle East. But the cleanup on the Texas coast for ordinary people will be more grueling, especially since some people only recently rebounded from the damage of Hurricane Harvey.
More importantly, it is a reminder of the vulnerability of the U.S. energy complex, much of which is concentrated along the Texas and Louisiana coast. Climate change is bringing more intense storms to the region, putting more oil and refining assets at risk.
The industry is only doubling down on investments in the area. Billions of dollars are being funneled into refineries, ethane crackers and plastics manufacturing, storage tanks and export facilities. For instance, ExxonMobil has a 10-year, $20 billion “Growing the Gulf” campaign, which consists of 11 facilities. Earlier this year, Exxon and Qatar gave the greenlight for a $10 billion LNG export facility in Sabine Pass, Texas. Major crude oil export terminals are also in the works, seeking to double U.S. oil export capacity in just a few years.
The odds are rising that in any given year, they will be threatened by severe weather. It’s rather striking that a run-of-the mill tropical depression led to catastrophic flooding in Houston this week, and forced the temporary shutdown of Exxon’s massive Beaumont refinery. It’s the kind of story that is increasingly moving from the “freak event” category and into the realm of an annual occurrence.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 09/19/2019 – 21:45
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