Today’s News 21st December 2023

• What Donald Trump's Ukraine Strategy Could Look Like
  What Donald Trump’s Ukraine Strategy Could Look Like

  Authored by Lt. General (ret.) Keith Kellogg and Dan Negrea via The National Interest,

  Far from abandoning Ukraine, a second Trump administration would lift restrictions on Ukrainian military aid in order to force a peace settlement…

  

  Donald Trump has vowed that in a second presidential term, he would end the war in Ukraine “in twenty-four hours.” Mainstream analysts have dismissed the president’s statements as hyperbole, but there is a strong possibility that Trump will be back in the Oval Office in just over a year’s time. Foreign policy experts, therefore, should take the former President’s statements seriously and assess how a Trump administration might deal with the largest conflict in Europe since World War II.

  Let us start by recognizing that Biden’s Ukraine strategy leaves much room for improvement. His weaknesses encouraged Putin to launch the invasion in the first place. Biden’s own Supreme Allied Commander in Europe assessed that Biden’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan led to Putin’s decision to re-attack Ukraine. Biden’s feeble attempts at “integrated deterrence,” threatening sanctions and aid to Ukraine, failed in their intended purpose of deterring Putin’s aggression. 

  Putin invaded Ukraine under both Obama and Biden, but he did not attack while Trump was president. Trump has stated that the Russia-Ukraine war would “never have happened” under his watch.

  Following Putin’s invasion, Biden pursued an overly cautious wartime strategy. Instead of clearly defining a goal of victory, Biden vowed to help Ukraine “as long as it takes.” But this only raises the question: as long as it takes to do what? Biden should have provided Ukraine with the weapons it needed to win quickly, but instead, he was afraid of potential Russian “escalation” and provided a cautious IV-drip of arms. Biden opposed providing many major weapons systems, like tanks, aircraft, and long-range artillery before changing his mind. The result is that Ukraine has had enough weapons to fight but not enough to win.

  Biden’s revealed wartime strategy was to spend billions of dollars only to produce a bloody and inconclusive stalemate.

  In contrast, based exclusively on his public statements, one can divine a very different Trump doctrine for Ukraine. He has argued that he would use his personal relationship with Zelenskyy and Putin to negotiate a settlement to the conflict “in one day.” The one-day timeframe may be overly ambitious as neither Putin nor Zelenskyy has expressed an interest in a negotiated settlement. Both sides appear to believe that they can still prevail on the battlefield.

  But Trump’s proposed approach could change that calculation. Trump said, “I would tell Putin, if you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give him a lot. We’re going to give [Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to.”

  Trump’s past actions make that threat credible. While in office, Trump showed that he was willing to push boundaries, lifting Obama-era restrictions on the rules of engagement in the fight against ISIS and killing Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. If Putin refuses to negotiate, Trump might very well remove the Biden-eras constraints on arms transfers and give Ukraine the weapons it needs to win, including long-range weapons to strike within Crimea and Russia. If faced with the prospect of a costly military defeat, Putin may very well prefer negotiations. 

  To bring Kyiv to the table, Trump said, “I would tell Zelenskyy, ‘no more.’ You got to make a deal.” Ukraine can only sustain the war effort due to large-scale Western support, and the prospect of losing aid would be a strong inducement to negotiation.

  A ceasefire along the current lines and subsequent negotiations would preserve a sovereign, democratic Ukraine anchored in the West and capable of defending itself. Kyiv would maintain its internationally-recognized claims to sovereignty over all of Ukraine. A halt to hostilities would also facilitate the provision of reliable security guarantees, including possible NATO and EU membership, to deter Russia from resuming the conflict. While less satisfying than (what increasingly appears to be an unachievable) total military victory, this outcome would represent a strategic defeat for Russia and a strengthening of American national security and the Western alliance.

  Some Republicans argue that the Ukraine conflict is a European matter of no consequence to the United States. Strategically, as his public comments reinforce, Trump disagrees. He sees ending the war as a major foreign policy issue—one that he plans to accomplish on day one.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 23:40

• China Is Keeping The Lights On The Christmas Tree This Year
  China Is Keeping The Lights On The Christmas Tree This Year

  While Santa’s factories are rumored to be hidden in the mountains of Lapland (or at the North Pole, depending on who you ask), someone else is doing the heavy lifting when it comes to Christmas decorations.

  As Statista’s Felix Richter reports, according to data extracted from the UN Comtrade database, China accounts for 66 percent of global exports of Christmas tree lighting sets and 90 percent of exports of other Christmas decorations excluding candles and natural trees.

  As the following chart nicely illustrates, no other country comes even close to China’s role in putting the holiday spirit in our homes.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  With a total export value of $11.1 billion in 2022, China’s Christmas industry dwarfs those of second and third ranked Cambodia and the Netherlands.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 23:20

• Straw Poll Shows Young Trump Voters Want Carlson Or Vivek As VP
  Straw Poll Shows Young Trump Voters Want Carlson Or Vivek As VP

  Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClear Wire,

  Young Republican voters overwhelmingly want Donald Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024, and they only disagree on whether he should choose Tucker Carlson or Vivek Ramaswamy as his running mate, according to a straw poll of participants who attended Turning Point Action’s annual AmericaFest.

  

  Obtained exclusively by RealClearPolitics, the results provide a snapshot of the youth vote just weeks before the Iowa caucuses. The online poll was conducted by Turning Point Action Dec. 17-18 and surveyed 1,113 attendees at the TPUSA conference in Phoenix, Ariz.

  The results show Trump as the clear favorite with 82.6% of respondents choosing the former president as their first choice. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished second with 7.6%, while Vivek Ramaswamy followed closely in third with 5.8%. Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who has garnered national media attention and a recent bump in momentum, finished fifth.

  Barely more than 1%, or 12 voters, at the Trump-friendly event said they preferred Haley compared to the 2.5% who remained “undecided.”

  The topline results are not surprising given that the founder of Turning Point USA, Charlie Kirk, remains an ardent ally of the former president and previously served as the CEO of Students for Trump. But the survey sheds light on a question currently dominating Trump world.

  When asked whom Trump should choose as his vice president if he wins the nomination, 35%, a plurality, settled on former Fox News personality Tucker Carlson. Another 25.7%, meanwhile, preferred Ramaswamy. Both men made headlines with their remarks at the conference.

  Ramaswamy responded from the main stage to criticism from CNN host Van Jones, who called him a demagogue earlier this month. “Just shut the f–k up,” the businessman-turned-politician said to applause. For his part, Carlson downplayed the idea of entering politics himself.

  “It’s like the weather,” the pundit replied when asked about joining the ticket with Trump. “I can’t control it,” Carlson said after floating Ramaswamy instead for VP. “I don’t think I’d be that great at that.”

  On the eve of the primary, the results reflect the policy appetites of the right-leaning youth. Attendees ranked border security and “deporting Biden-era illegal immigrants” as their top priority ahead of “election integrity” and “defunding the deep state,” which ranked second and third. Meanwhile, ending diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives from the government, which has been a calling card of the DeSantis campaign, ranked as their lowest priority.

  Mirroring a larger shift on the right, the survey also shows a youth vote increasingly skeptical of foreign aid to Ukraine but largely supportive of Israel’s war with Hamas. A clear majority, 55.4%, backed giving lethal aid to Tel Aviv, less than 1% supported sending the same to Kyiv, and 39.4% responded that the United States shouldn’t provide such supplies to either Israel or Ukraine.

  Congress generally earns poor approval ratings, but the young Republicans seemed to like newly minted House Speaker Mike Johnson, with 57% either somewhat or strongly approving of his job performance. They were somewhat split, meanwhile, on whether the House should have expelled former New York Rep. George Santos, who made numerous false representations about himself during the previous election.

  While 32% approved of the Santos expulsion, 47% disapproved of the history-making move which had only occurred five times previously.

  The same week that the House approved an impeachment inquiry of President Biden, 49.6% said that they supported removing him from office. Another 24.3% reported that Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas should be impeached, while 15.2% wanted Attorney General Merrick Garland gone.

  As both parties court the youth vote, the survey found that young Republicans in the Turning Point orbit are unsatisfied with RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel. An overwhelming 87% said that she should step down, and 56% reported that her departure would make them “more likely” to donate to the party. Charlie Kirk supported Harmeet Dhillon in her unsuccessful challenge of McDaniel earlier this year.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 23:00

• What A Load Of Rubbish: The Global State Of Waste Management
  What A Load Of Rubbish: The Global State Of Waste Management

  The safe management of household and commercial solid waste is not yet widespread in many nations in Asia and Africa.

  The latter continent receives the worst marks, with 15 countries rated at no more than 10 out of 100 points on the Yale Environmental Performance Index waste management subranking.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Four Asian nations score equally poorly – Myanmar, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. South Asian nations as well as Cambodia, Mongolia, Uzbekistan and Laos only rank a little bit higher, however.

  The World Bank assumes that waste generation in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will grow fastest until 2050 due to the regions’ high populations that are still in the process of gaining access to modern consumer markets. While exhibiting slower growth, East Asia-Pacific is already the region generating the most waste today and will remain in this position in the future. Both developments point to increased challenges for safe waste management in the years to come.

  According to Yale, solid waste produces 5 percent of greenhouse gas emissions globally while also being a source of contamination and pollution of soil, water, air and food through leaching, burning and vermin when managed poorly. As it is often reaching oceans, plastic waste can be a serious threat to a wide array of marine life. The report concludes that waste management has not kept pace with growing waste generation in countries of all income levels.

  The most poorly rated nations in the Americas are Haiti and Venezuela, while in Europe, Albania and Montenegro are the least successful at waste management. Developed Asian countries Singapore and South Korea meanwhile are among the top 10 best-rated nations together with Scandinavian and German-speaking nations as well as Luxembourg and the Czech Republic. Australia comes in rank 12 while the United Kingdom is ranked 26th and the United States 46th.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 22:40

• Jack Smith Requests Written Jury Questionnaire In Trump Classified Documents Case
  Jack Smith Requests Written Jury Questionnaire In Trump Classified Documents Case

  Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  On Tuesday, federal prosecutors asked the Florida judge presiding over former President Donald Trump’s classified documents trial to approve a written jury questionnaire ahead of an in-person selection process, given the high profile of the case.

  

  In a Dec. 19 motion to U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, special prosecutor Jack Smith’s office said, “Because the pre-trial publicity surrounding this case is substantial, the Government recommends a thorough jury selection process, including a written questionnaire completed by potential jurors before in-person voir dire.”

  The jury questionnaire would form part of a comprehensive jury selection process that prosecutors seek to expedite the selection process by identifying uncontested strikes for cause and hardship before in-person voir dire, a process in which potential jurors are screened to determine their impartiality.

  Citing the high profile of the case, Mr. Smith’s office also argues that using a jury questionnaire in addition to in-person voir dire will safeguard President Trump’s Sixth Amendment right to a fair and efficient jury selection process. The motion suggests that a questionnaire will streamline the process by allowing the parties and the court to conduct informed individual questioning of a narrowed pool of potential jurors.

  “A written questionnaire, used as part of a comprehensive voir dire process, is a potent tool to sift out potential jury bias in cases where there has been substantial media attention,” Mr. Smith’s office said in the filing.

  The motion, noting the 10-week lead time needed in other cases, seeks a Feb. 2, 2024, deadline for the parties to submit a proposed jury questionnaire to Judge Cannon and highlight any disagreement points.

  Prosecutors push for this date, noting that there might not be enough time to undertake this process before the May 20, 2024 trial date should they wait to start the process after the March 1, 2024, scheduling conference.

  However, Judge Cannon cast doubt on the May 20 trial date in a prior order in November, which pushed back key pre-trial deadlines. The order also noted that the trial’s start date would be “considered at a scheduling conference” in March.

  In their filing on Tuesday, prosecutors said that accomplishing the juror questionnaire “requires enough time beforehand to allow for meaningful conferral among the parties and for the Court to consider and resolve disputes.” Furthermore, “Time may also be required to print questionnaires and conduct other processing,” the motion added.

  As an alternative to mailing the questionnaires, Mr. Smith’s office suggested that potential jurors could be summoned to the courthouse, acknowledging that this process would also require a lead time for the court to prepare ahead of the May trial date.

  Trump Legal Team Opposes Motion

  President Trump’s legal team opposes the motion on the grounds that “the relief sought is premature and would not be an economical use of the parties’ time before the court has ruled on discovery demands or other motions,” according to the filing by Mr. Smith’s office.

  In June, the former president was indicted on federal charges in Florida of improperly storing sensitive documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate, according to a sweeping felony indictment.

  President Trump entered a plea of not guilty in the case. He has consistently asserted that the case is part of an effort by Democrats to undermine his political prospects, given the significant lead he maintains in presidential primary polls.

  The former president also faces charges by Mr. Smith’s office in Washington related to his post-election efforts to challenge the process and results of the 2020 election. He faces similar state charges in Georgia.

  He also faces civil fraud charges in New York related to business records toward the end of the 2016 campaign. He has pleaded not guilty to those charges brought by a Democratic attorney general whom he has accused of bias against him.

  President Trump has similarly accused the judge presiding over the New York civil case, Arthur Engoron, and his chief law clerk of political bias against him. Judge Engoron has already ruled that the defendants are liable, and the trial is meant to determine penalties and resolve other legal issues in the lawsuit.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 22:20

• The '1%' Are Responsible For 15% Of Global Emissions
  The ‘1%’ Are Responsible For 15% Of Global Emissions

  From a historical perspective, the current demand for natural resources has surged to unprecedented levels and continues to escalate—for both essential needs like food, clothing, water, housing, infrastructure, and non-essential consumption in everyday life.

  This surge has been accompanied by annual increases in CO₂ emissions. Consumption, however, differs radically depending on income.

  In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Marcu Lu and Bruno Venditti show global CO₂ emissions, broken down by income group. This data comes from the Emissions Inequality Calculator, created by the Stockholm Environment Institute.

  

  Wealthier Families Contribute More to CO₂ Emissions

  In 2019, the world’s richest 1% (with an average income of $310K) were responsible for 15% of global CO₂ emissions.

  The annual emissions of the 1% in 2019 canceled out the carbon savings of 1 million onshore wind turbines. In contrast, the bottom 50% (with an average income of $2,000) were responsible for only 8% of CO₂ emissions.

  Here is the breakdown of emissions by income group in 2019, with average income in 2011 purchasing power parity USD:

  

  The reason for such disparity lies in consumption. For example, fashion is one of the most demanded industries in the world’s high-income countries. According to the UN, the fashion industry produces between 2% to 8% of global carbon emissions.

  Another major contributor is the transport sector, which is more prevalent in developed countries. Greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector alone have more than doubled since 1970, with around 80% of this increase coming from road vehicles.

  Higher-income families also spend more on food, contributing to CO₂ emissions. The production, transportation, and handling of food generates significant CO₂ emissions. In addition, when food ends up in landfills, it also generates methane.

  According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, each year, U.S. food loss and waste embodies 170 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent GHG emissions (excluding landfill emissions)—equal to the annual CO₂ emissions of 42 coal-fired power plants.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 22:00

• The Untold Stories About Smallpox Vaccines
  The Untold Stories About Smallpox Vaccines

  Authored by Yuhong Dong via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  In the rich tapestry of medical science, vaccines stand out as monumental achievements lauded for their role in controlling, and sometimes eradicating, some of humanity’s deadliest diseases. Yet, the story of vaccines is not just a straightforward account of scientific triumph. It is a complex narrative, woven with evolving methodologies, diverse perspectives, and debates over efficacy and safety.

  

  The story of vaccines—particularly the smallpox vaccine—is more than a chapter in medical history; it’s a reflection of the human journey, marked by groundbreaking discoveries, societal impacts, and ongoing learning. Smallpox, once a formidable scourge, was the first disease to be eradicated through vaccination. However, the path to this success was not linear. It was punctuated with challenges and controversies.

  In this series, “Revisiting the Historical Vaccines,” we will explore the multifaceted history of vaccines, examine historical data, and seek a nuanced understanding of vaccine efficacy and safety.

  This journey begins with the smallpox vaccine—a starting point that opened doors to modern immunization but also raised questions that resonate to this day.

  Our critical evaluation is to offer a well-rounded perspective, grounded in scientific data and enriched by historical context. Join us as we delve into the past to understand the present and shape our thoughts for the future of public health and medical science.

  

  In general, smallpox vaccines can be roughly differentiated into three stages. The first stage began with the invention of the vaccine by Dr. Edward Jenner in 1796. The second stage involved the different versions of smallpox vaccines propagated and used by people during the 18th and 19th centuries. Finally, the third stage includes modern smallpox vaccines used in the late 20th and 21st centuries.

  The Most Fearful Disease in History

  The story of vaccines begins with a narrative of groundbreaking triumphs in public health. One of the earliest successes was the development of the smallpox vaccine by Dr. Edward Jenner (1749 to 1823) in the late 18th century, a pivotal moment that demonstrated the potential of the vaccine.

  Smallpox, caused by the variola virus, was once one of the world’s most feared diseases. Characterized by fever, malaise, telltale pustules on the skin, disfiguring scars, and blindness in many survivors, it has a storied history that intersects with the evolution of human civilization.

  According to the World Health Organization (WHO), smallpox has two forms: variola minor, with a 1 percent mortality rate, and the more severe variola major, with a 30 percent mortality rate. About 65 to 80 percent of survivors bear deep, pitted facial scars called “pockmarks.”

  

  Edward Jenner’s 1796 Invention

  The smallpox vaccine was introduced by Dr. Edward Jenner in 1796. The story of this first vaccine started with a belief among milkmaids that cowpox infection could prevent smallpox.

  Inspired by this belief, Dr. Jenner experimented on an 8-year-old boy, James Phipps. Dr. Jenner used material from a dairymaid’s cowpox lesions and scratched it onto James. When James didn’t develop smallpox after exposure, Dr. Jenner concluded that the cowpox vaccination was effective.

  

  This process was later termed “vaccination,” derived from the Latin word “vaca,” for cow, and “vaccinia,” for cowpox. Dr. Jenner’s 1798 paper claimed lifelong immunity from smallpox through this method.

  This single-person study evolved into the modern narrative being told in our textbooks for hundreds of years that “inspired by milkmaids, Dr. Jenner invented the smallpox vaccine consisting of the so-called cowpox virus, conferring cross-protection against smallpox.”

  Furthermore, lesser-known details in this story spread for more than 200 years. There are at least two points that are not true about this narrative. 

  The first one, unfortunately, is that the story of the milkmaid was a lie invented by John Baron, Dr. Jenner’s friend and first biographer. In his book, “The Life of Edward Jenner MD,” Mr. Baron states that Dr. Jenner himself never claimed to have discovered the value of cowpox, nor did he ever say, despite a huge volume of correspondence, how he first came across the idea. The myths of the milkmaids are just that, myths.

  The second point is that the virus contained in Dr. Jenner’s original smallpox vaccine is supposed to be a type of cowpox virus. However, is this true? The answer is relatively obscure. Rather than the cowpox virus, evidence supports that Dr. Jenner might have used the vaccinia or the horsepox virus, which stands as the biggest mystery in Jenner’s vaccine story. 

  Different Viruses, Different Diseases

  Smallpox results from the variola virus, a DNA virus belonging to the Orthopoxvirus genus. This virus only infects humans. Unique to humans, who are its only known reservoir, it spreads primarily through inhaling respiratory droplets or through direct contact with infected material on mucous membranes. Importantly, it is not transmitted from cows.

  Cowpox is caused by the cowpox virus affecting only milking cows. The cowpox virus mainly resides in wild mammals like cattle and cats without causing obvious symptoms. In humans, the infection is usually mild and self-limiting, characterized by fever, aches, and a red blister that evolves into a pus-filled lesion.

  Moreover, the horsepox virus further complicated the story, as Dr. Jenner had also used lymph from horsepox lesions to prepare the smallpox vaccine in 1813 and 1817. Horsepox causes pustular lesions in horses and horse handlers.

  The cowpox virus, horsepox virus, and smallpox virus are all different viruses. Even so, Dr. Jenner used various sources, including cows and horses, to create vaccine substances. This practice led to the development of multiple vaccine concoctions, often used without a full understanding of their composition.

  

  A 2018 paper in The Lancet Infectious Diseases by Clarissa Damaso carefully revisited the complex and obscure history of smallpox vaccines and concluded that the virus strains used by Dr. Jenner remain a mystery (i.e., cowpox, horsepox, or vaccinia viruses).

  In 1823 when Dr. Jenner died, there were already three distinct types of smallpox vaccines: cowpox, described as “pure lymph from the calf,” horse grease, described as “the true and genuine life-preserving fluid,” and horse grease variants.

  Read the rest here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 21:40

• The Days Of Using Dating Apps For Free Are Long Gone
  The Days Of Using Dating Apps For Free Are Long Gone

  The good ole’ days of using dating apps for free appear to be long gone.

  Now, such apps are “borderline unusable” without paying up for features, according to a new report by CNBC, which says that users are paying hundreds of dollars a month to use to services. 

  “When you’re serious about looking for a relationship, you’re going to put your money where your mouth is,” 38 year old Channing Muller told CNBC. She had signed up for paid versions of sites like Hinge and The League. 

  Nikita Sherbina, a software company owner in Phoenix, told CNBC she was spending about $250 monthly on Hinge, Bumble, and Tinder for two years, often cutting back on other expenses like groceries.

  A Pew Research Center study indicates that 35% of Americans who have used dating websites or apps have at some point paid for these services, the report says. Morgan Stanley research earlier this year showed that the average subscriber spends about $19 monthly on dating apps.

  Some of the prices for apps like The League can run far higher. CNBC wrote that The League offers a VIP membership priced at $999 per week or $2,499 monthly. This premium option gives members the ability to connect with potential matches in various cities, access new profiles before others, and use a specialized concierge service designed to enhance their dating success.

  

  In September, Tinder introduced a high-tier subscription at $499 per month for its most active users, while Hinge has also launched a membership plan costing $600 a month, the report noted. 

  Blaine Anderson, a men’s dating coach in Austin, Texas, told CNBC: “The days of venture capital-subsidized swiping are over. [Companies] want to monetize the services they provide to eager singles.”

  “There’s a group of users who are eager to use our premium features,” added  AJ Balance, Grindr chief product officer. 

  However, the apps have seen some slowdown in usage. “The apps are pulling from the same dating pool, and so [users] are seeing the same people, matching with the same people and not finding anyone new,” Kathryn Coduto, an assistant professor at Boston University who studies internet behavior told CNBC. “This leads to a feeling of frustration and the question of like, ‘What’s the point?’”

  She noted that the idea of paying for love isn’t that ‘new’, either. “People have paid for things like personal ads, speed-dating experiences, dating and relationship coaches and matchmakers,” she said. 

  That means their revenue can take a hit, just like other companies, as the economy slows. Match Group during a recent earnings call, for example, acknowledged economic challenges like student loan payments and credit card delinquencies as potential threats to its revenue. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 21:20

• Biden Vetoes Repeal Of 'Woke' Lending Rule
  Biden Vetoes Repeal Of ‘Woke’ Lending Rule

  Authored by Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A controversial Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) small business lending rule will remain in effect after President Joe Biden vetoed a joint resolution of disapproval that would have repealed the measure.

  

  The rule in question requires lenders to annually collect and report to the CFPB certain credit application data from the small business owners they lend to, including personal demographics such as race, sexual orientation, and gender identity. The rule, which took effect in August, also enables the creation of a publicly accessible database of small business credit applications.

  Republicans have criticized the rule as a move to make the lending process more “woke.”

  But in issuing his Dec. 19 veto, President Biden defended the rule, holding that it would increase transparency in small business lending and allow lenders and organizations to better meet the needs of small businesses.

  “This Republican-led resolution would hinder the government’s ability to conduct oversight of abusive and predatory lenders, make it harder for 33 million small businesses across the country to assess lending opportunities and access capital, and make it more difficult for lenders and community groups to address the most acute gaps in capital access for minority- and women-owned businesses,” he wrote.

  “By hampering efforts to promote transparency and accountability in small business lending, Republicans are siding with big banks and corporations over the needs of small business owners. Small businesses are the engines of our economy, and my administration will not support policies that hurt their ability to thrive and grow.”

  ‘None of Their Business’

  Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) led the charge to repeal the rule as the joint resolution’s sponsor, slamming the new demographic reporting requirements as intrusive on the Senate floor.

  “The bank has to ask the small businessperson if that person is a lesbian. The bank has to ask the small businessperson if that person is gay,” he noted on Oct. 18, rattling off examples.

  “It is none of their business—none of their business—what a private American does with another private, adult American in the privacy of their bedroom.”

  The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) has also expressed concern that the lending rule would impose a substantial burden on both small banks and small businesses to collect and report the required information.

  According to a recent NFIB survey, 67 percent of the organization’s members use a small or regional financial institution for their credit needs and 17 percent use a medium-sized institution.

  “Small banks and credit unions, like all small businesses, don’t have as many employees dedicated to compliance and paperwork as large banks do,” the organization noted in an Oct. 18 letter to members of the U.S. Senate. “The rule will disproportionately affect small banks and has the potential to affect the access to credit of their small business customers.”

  A veto override would require two-thirds majority votes in both chambers, an unlikely outcome given that Mr. Kennedy’s resolution passed both the House and Senate with slim majorities.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 21:00

• Where Americans Shop For The Holidays
  Where Americans Shop For The Holidays

  After a year of high prices, high interest rates and high economic uncertainty, American consumers would have been excused for cutting back on their spending this holiday season.

  However, as Statista’s Felix Richter notes, that doesn’t seem to be the case,  as both forecasts and preliminary estimates point towards new spending records this year.

  The National Retail Federation expects consumers in the U.S. to spend an average of $885 on core holiday items including gifts, decorations, food and other holiday-related purchases this year, up 5 percent from last year’s holiday budgets and just above the five-year average in expected spending.

  When it comes to where Americans will be splashing their holiday cash, 58 percent of people said they’d shop online while 49 percent plan to go to a department store. 48 percent are planning to shop at a discount store while 44 percent are going to make holiday purchases at a grocery store.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  So while it seems that many Americans like to avoid the crowds and do most of their holiday shopping online, physical stores still have role to play during the year’s busiest shopping season.

  In terms of getting into the Christmas spirit, shopping for gifts at a nicely-decorated store while the store radio plays some holiday classics beats hunting for bargains online every time.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 20:40

• Here's Why Tearing Down Satanic Statues Is Perfectly Acceptable In Our "Constitutional Society"
  Here’s Why Tearing Down Satanic Statues Is Perfectly Acceptable In Our “Constitutional Society”

  Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

  In recent articles I’ve been discussing the ways in which the political left exploits the principles of a society as a shield to destroy that society. In other words, if a nation has a certain historic regard for freedom, they will try to destroy that nation while under the protection of those freedoms. If you point out what they’re doing and try to stop them, they then argue that you are “violating your own principles,” the same principles which they are trying to tear down.

  It’s a form of psychological warfare designed to create a Catch-22:

  • If the target population sits back and does nothing in the face of the cultural onslaught, their heritage and their beliefs are systematically dismantled.

  • If people take action to disrupt the saboteurs, they are accused of being hypocrites who don’t actually value the freedoms they claim to value.

  However, this little mind game relies on a certain false relationship. It requires that the population under attack continues to see the saboteurs as integral members of that society with the same freedoms and the same protections. They are Americans just like us, and therefore we have to treat them merely as citizens in disagreement even though they would like nothing better than to see our culture burn.

  Globalists and woke leftists often openly boast about their agenda to deconstruct western society and replace it with their own ideological cult. They are not simply in disagreement, they have declared war.

  They’ve been treating conservatives and patriots as the enemy for quite some time, while we continue to treat them as fellow citizens. They tried to erase all of our freedoms permanently during the covid panic (which they perpetuated through false information). They tried to create a government apparatus working with social media corporations for mass censorship. They tried to create punishments for people who spoke against the establishment narrative. They supported vaccine mandates that would have enslaved Americans for years to come. They almost got what they wanted, too.

  

  They then twisted the events of the Jan 6th protests and declared war on us again. They fired rubber bullets and tear gas into the crowds, got a violent response, and then acted as if the reaction was an “insurrection.”

  They have targeted our children with political and sexual indoctrination in an effort to groom them into willing servants to the woke cause. They have saturated our media from commercials to movies with an endless stream of DEI propaganda, all while claiming WE are “terrorists” because we refuse to spend our money on woke products.

  When someone is actively at war with you they are no longer a part of your community or tribe.  They can’t claim to be Americans while also planning to undermine everything that makes America what it is. When someone is working tirelessly to destroy the constitutional principles you hold dear, they don’t get to use those same freedoms as a buffer against retaliation.

  An enemy in war is meant to be defeated; their “rights” are secondary to this goal.

  Again, this is not a political disagreement. This is not a friendly debate among countrymen with the best of intentions. This is not a cultural speed bump on the way to mutual benefit. This division is irreparable. It cannot be salvaged. This is about survival. THIS IS WAR.

  This is why I smiled when I read the story of Michael Cassidy, a former US Navy fighter pilot who destroyed a satanic statue of Baphomet on display at the Iowa State Capitol Building.

  

  The political left is in an uproar on social media, and as expected they argue that this incident is proof that conservatives are “authoritarians” hellbent on dictatorship. They say the statue has a constitutional right to be there if any other religious symbols are allowed to be there – But does this really matter to the situation?

  My personal feelings about organized religion are complicated, but I still recognize the replacement tactics being used by the political left to undermine the west; they have been clearly targeting Christianity for many years. The satanic statue in Iowa may or may not represent satanism and evil to the people who paid to have it placed in the capitol, but it does represent their ongoing effort to wear down American foundations using any tool they can find.

  Here are the reasons why what Cassidy did is absolutely acceptable under our current political conditions, even in the face of constitutional questions…

  1) Do we really even live in a “constitutional society” anymore?  Or does the 1st Amendment only apply when it’s convenient to leftists?  As mentioned above, the political left and their allies have been working overtime to destroy freedom of speech through collusion between governments, corporate media and Big Tech.  Mass censorship was the norm during covid and leftists defended it vigorously. These people are in no position to use the 1st Amendment as a tent pole for their ideological games. Sorry, but that ship has sailed; they have lost the privilege of wrapping themselves in the flag.

  2) The political left has been aggressively attempting to demolish historic monuments and statues of Founding Fathers in an effort to erase our connections to the past.  In 2021 they even removed a nearly 200-year-old statue of Thomas Jefferson from the New York City Hall building on the grounds that it was a “symbol of racism.” What goes around comes around.  They tear down our statues, now we tear down their statues.

  3) Michael Cassidy is not a government representative, just as most of us are not government representatives. Leftists seem to operate under the false assumption that constitutional rules are meant to restrict public behavior. They are not. They are meant to restrict the government.

  The Iowa state government didn’t tear that satanic statue down (unlike the New York City government that removed Thomas Jefferson). Rather, it was just a man, a regular citizen.

  This is not a 1st Amendment issue because Michael Cassidy is not bound by the 1st Amendment in this situation. He might be guilty of vandalism under the law, just like thousands of woke activists across the country are guilty of vandalism for destroying monuments and government buildings, but that is all.  This is not a legal battle, this is war.

  4) Most conservatives are not even arguing the matter on 1st Amendment grounds. Instead, they argue the matter on moral grounds. Is it right to allow satanic symbols to stand in our institutions of law and institutions of heritage? Symbols that represent moral relativism, narcissism, chaos and psychopathy? Is it right to look the other way while a subversive activist movement works to demolish everything we hold dear?

  5) Does every belief system or ideology deserve a place of “equality” within our society? Every death cult? Every terrorist or criminal philosophy? Are they ALL entitled to statues and monuments on public property? Or, is there a line? Should there be statues of Hitler, Stalin and Mao in the halls of Congress? Should there be a Pol Pot bust on the floor of the Senate? Should Charles Manson get his face on Mount Rushmore because of the 1st Amendment?  There is such a thing as standards, but leftists think that when it comes to their ideological goals, there are no standards.

  Never before in the history of the US has there been a time when a statue of Baphomet in a state government building would have been treated as acceptable, even under constitutional law. Suddenly, in the past decade we’re supposed to treat these destructive symbols as equal to other religions and give them places of reverence on public grounds? I think not.

  6) Satanists like to play games with legal categorization when it suits them. When they want to argue for their presence in public schools they say they are NOT a religion and are merely a philosophical club. When they want 1st Amendment protections they claim they are a religion.  If these groups are going to refuse to identify what they are in finality, then they should be restricted from access to public institutions until they make up their minds and the courts can establish a fair precedence.

  7) We have to ask ourselves what really defines freedom? Does freedom mean being able to do whatever you want whenever you want without being subject to scrutiny or skepticism? Does freedom extend to hedonism at the expense of morality, truth, responsibility and order? Because this is what the political left is demanding and it’s leading to the self immolation of civilization.

  I think we have allowed them to indulge themselves for far too long, to the point that they have become arrogant and presume themselves untouchable. They laugh at us because we play by a certain set of rules by which they see no reason to abide. We engage in a battle of ideas and facts while they go scorched Earth, rigging the fight using central government and corporate power to their advantage.

  Maybe we stop playing by these rules? Maybe every time they try to tear down our statues and symbols, we tear down their symbols until there’s nothing left of them? Maybe we remove the enemy that has declared war on us, and then continue on with life as we did before?  Would the populace really miss the antics of woke activists, or would they applaud if these people were shipped off to an island somewhere?

  If they hate the cultural roots of this country so much then they can always leave. They choose not to, and instead scheme to upend everything we used to stand for. So no, I shed no tears for the progressives or the satanists (almost the same thing at this point) or the globalists when their mocking statues are cut in half. After years of trespasses they are finally facing some blowback. As the leftists like to say, freedom of speech does not guarantee freedom from consequences.

  *  *  *

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  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 20:20

• Yes, Talking Heads, We ARE Paying Attention
  Yes, Talking Heads, We ARE Paying Attention

  Authored by Frank Miele via RealClear Wire,

  For the last year, ever since Donald Trump announced his run for a second non-consecutive term as president, the political pundits have told each other that “no one is paying attention.”

  

  They did that for one reason only – because Trump has been consistently ahead in the polls, and the pundits didn’t want to believe that voters might actually send Trump back to the White House. If voters were taking his candidacy seriously, the theory goes, Trump would lose in a landslide.

  Remember, the overwhelming majority of the elites who provide the commentary and analysis of politics are either far-left propagandists or proponents of the “governing coalition” theory that sees compromise as the mechanism by which things get done, which presupposes that getting things done is by definition better than fighting for things you believe in.

  These elites think they know more than you do, and since they believe Trump is an autocrat, a dictator, an evil self-obsessed criminal – take your pick – then they have to believe you aren’t paying attention because despite all their negative commentary, you the voters still want Trump back as president.

  Most worrisome to them, it seems you want Trump more today than you did on Nov. 15, 2022, when he announced his re-election bid. Just look at the Republican primary polls recorded at RealClearPolitics. In the Harvard-Harris poll conducted on Nov. 16-17, 2022, Trump had a 46%-28% lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis, his nearest competitor. In a couple of polls in the following three months, DeSantis came within a point or two of Trump, but that was his high-water mark. As soon as the Democratic establishment launched their first indictment against Trump in March 2023, the former president strengthened his lead over DeSantis to 50%-24% in the Harvard-Harris poll of March 22-23. Since then, with each succeeding indictment, Trump has risen higher and higher. In the last Harvard-Harris poll in November 2023, Trump led DeSantis by 58 points. Virtually every poll in the last three months has Trump ahead by 40 to 50 points.

  All along, the talking heads on MSNBC and CNN persisted in claiming that Trump is beating DeSantis and Nikki Haley because voters aren’t yet paying attention. But this isn’t the 1980s any more. We have something called the Internet, with 24/7 news coverage and social media trying to convince the world that all conservatives like Trump are hatemongers. It’s impossible for anyone who is interested in politics not to have been paying attention.

  In other words, anyone who hasn’t been paying attention up until now will never pay attention. And by the way, the Iowa caucuses are now less than 30 days away. The whole argument has fallen apart.

  What the talking heads don’t want to admit is that voters have been paying attention for months, and they are sending a message to the elites that they will make up their own minds, thank you very much. And that goes for blacks, Hispanics, and young voters, too – not just MAGA Republicans. Polls show Trump gaining support in all those demographics, and either tied with President Biden or ahead of him nationally.

  What must terrify them even more is the latest report from Morning Consult and Bloomberg that in the key battleground states that will determine the winner in 2024, Trump has a commanding lead of 5 points overall and as much as 9 points in North Carolina.

  So what are voters paying attention to? As the polls show, they have been paying attention to the persecution of Donald Trump by his political opponents, and they don’t like it. They are paying attention to the variety of third-party candidates who have said they will run in 2024, and when those candidates are included in polls, Trump’s lead in battleground states increases from 5 points to 7. They are paying attention to the blossoming debt crisis that Congress and Biden have shown no interest in addressing. They are paying attention to the border, where millions of military-age males have been arriving from Africa, the Middle East, and across the world, some on the terrorism watch list. They are paying attention to the unaffordability of housing, whether rental or purchased, and they are paying attention to their own growing credit card balances and their shriveled savings accounts. They are paying attention to those Ivy League college presidents who think threats of genocide are only a problem if they are carried out.

  Sorry, Democrats. Sorry, Joe Biden. Sorry, congressional dead weights of both parties. Sorry, elites and talking heads. We have been paying attention, and we are coming for you. You can’t hide behind your fake narrative any longer. The truth has set us free.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 19:40

• San Fran Office Market Has Not Bottomed 
  San Fran Office Market Has Not Bottomed 

  The Federal Reserve’s pivot from aggressive monetary tightening to the possibility of (pre-emptice) rate-cuts has spurred talk about whether 2024 will be a ‘no landing’ or ‘soft landing’ scenario (avoiding a recession). Optimists have been pointing to the rates market that shows nearly six cuts priced in by the end of the next year. However, it is hard not to consider the fact that by anticipating these cuts, the market could be signaling more economic stress to come than The Fed expects (with its growth and employment forecasts).

  For severely strained building owners across the US, these hopes of interest rate cuts, which would lower the borrowing costs, could not come soon enough as there is still no sign of a bottom in this distressed market.

  Take, for instance, the San Francisco office market, where a new report from local newspaper SFGate, citing CBRE data, shows office vacancy in the crime-ridden metro area hit new highs in the fourth quarter of 2023. The vacancy rate topped 35.9%, a jump from last quarter’s 34%. CBRE said this is another 1.4 million square feet of occupancy loss (equating to an entire Salesforce Tower). 

  CBRE said 6.7 million square feet of office space flooded the market in San Fran this year – the second-worst year since 2020. This was primarily due to large sublease spaces being emptied. 

  Despite the flood of office space, asking rents have fallen too slowly to attract demand. In the last quarter, there was only a slight decline of 2.5% in asking rents. 

  

  Colin Yasukochi, executive director of CBRE’s Tech Insights Center, told the paper San Fran’s CRE market has yet to bottom and expects vacancy rates to rise through the first half of 2024. 

  Yasukochi noted, “The office market should stabilize and begin recovery as economic conditions improve and interest rates decline during the second half of 2024.” 

  Recent office tower sales in the downtown area have been absolutely disastrous:

  In early November, the tower at 201 Spear St. sold for $60 million, or about half of its 2013 value, sources confirmed to the San Francisco Chronicle. 

  According to the Real Deal, the 14-story tower at 115 Sansome St. recently sold for $35 million, significantly less than its $83 million value in 2016. 

  Another Real Deal report from last month said the 13-story tower in the North Financial District, located on 550 California Street, sold for 60% off. 

  Market-clearing prices have been established in the metro area due to a combination of remote work, and an imploding metro area plagued with lawlessness, due mainly to failed social justice policies pushed by radical Democrats.  

  A recent Bloomberg survey of professional traders might be correct about what’s coming down the pipe:

  • Two-thirds of the 919 respondents believe the office tower market needs to crash before a rebound can be seen.

  • About half believe tower prices will trough in the second half of next year. 

  That much-needed, though extremely painful, cleansing of the over-abundance (and over-pricing) of office space in America may now be delayed – can-kicked – as despite a handful of Fed members in recent days trying to walk back the market’s high rate cut expectations, they just hit a new high of 158bps (more than 6 rate cuts).

  What would prompt such a massive and sudden reversal by The Fed – a serious, sudden recession? And that won’t be good for CRE.

  

  CRE turmoil is expected to worsen in the first half of 2024 despite this hope that interest rate cuts will save the day.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 19:20

• There Were At Least 19 Campus Hate-Crime Hoaxes In 2023
  There Were At Least 19 Campus Hate-Crime Hoaxes In 2023

  Authored by Matt Lamb via The College Fix,

  Fake racist fans, racist graffiti written by Hispanic students… just a normal year

  

  There were at least 19 hate crime hoaxes in 2023 that either occurred on a high school or college campus or are otherwise linked to higher education, according to an analysis by The College Fix. The tally marks an increase from last year, during which there were at least 14.

  A hate crime hoax is anything considered criminal or at least an act of misconduct. A hoax can be confirmed, such as when Hispanic gangs were found guilty of spray-painting “white power” graffiti at an Idaho high school or when black Sacramento high schoolers were found to be behind circulating a dollar bill with a “racist anti-Black caricature” on it.

  It can also include a phantom attacker, like when a Muslim University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill student claimed she was attacked with a knife by an Israel supporter.

  Other investigations are closed or hit a dead end without further explanation or the alleged victim went silent. This is what happened when University of Cincinnati Professor Antar Tichavakunda did not respond to multiple law enforcement requests for further information on a racist letter he allegedly received.

  It can also be a hoax when there is no path forward for the investigation to end but there’s also no clear evidence indicating the act was an intentional hate crime.

  Reporting there were only 19 actually is generous, since one hoax involved the claim, bolstered by academics, that residence schools in Canada had mass graves with at least 215 Indigenous children buried in them. Well, not really graves, but a radar picked up something that was maybe, possibly, sort of bodies.

  We’re still waiting, because “no remains” were found despite excavating 14 sites at a Catholic church in Manitoba in August where radar allegedly picked up “anomalies” as well. The College Fix previously raised concerns about the veracity of claims of “mass graves.”

  University of Montreal Professor Jacques Rouillard, a skeptic of the mass graves theory, provided a good quote we can borrow when talking about some of these hoaxes: “I don’t like to use the word hoax because it’s too strong but there are also too many falsehoods circulating about this issue with no evidence.”

  “Falsehoods” around campus hate still include allegedly racist sports fans, this time at Pennsylvania State University and Guilford College in North Carolina.

  A white conservative professor was also falsely accused of harassing a black student at the University of Dallas.

  Sometimes acts that may appear to be hateful are committed by white people – but not with a racist intent.

  A white military veteran with mental health issues avoided jail time after hanging a noose on a statue of the Greek poet Homer at the University of Virginia. The hate crime turned out to not be one, though campus police chief Timothy Longo said it “certainly” was a hate crime in September 2022.

  Sometimes black Democrat students are charged with crimes, but pro-lifers get the criticism. This is what happened after police charged Harvard University student Naod Nega, a black Democrat, with beating up someone while using a “homophobic slur,” according to The Harvard Crimson.

  But campus LGBT leaders blamed a pro-life event for creating the environment for the attack. “Someone just got attacked — so we don’t need to ask questions of, ‘What does letting homophobic thought on campus lead to?’ This is what it leads to,” one LGBT leader said. “It leads to people getting punched and called slurs on our campus.”

  Actually, it was reportedly drugs and likely underlying mental health issues that led to Nega allegedly beating someone up, but don’t let the facts get in the way of a good narrative.

  Understandably, it has been a tough year for the LGBT community in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Harvard police quietly closed an investigation into anti-LGBT emails allegedly sent to some affiliates of the Ivy League university. The emails, mirroring language used by race hoaxer Jussie Smollett, said “Cambridge is MAGA Country.” “MAGA” is President Donald Trump’s campaign slogan — “Make America Great Again.”

  Police ignored questions from The College Fix about the possibility of a hate crime hoax, given the similar language used by Smollett and the sender.

  Perhaps the emails were sent to make a point about how free speech can be harmful to LGBT people. That was the argument employed by Massachusetts Institute of Technology Undergraduate Association President David Spicer. He hung up posters and chalked sidewalks with what he deemed to be anti-LGBT sayings to make a point about how free speech could be offensive. Spicer himself is LGBT and faced criticism for his stunt.

  That’s just how LGBT people do it in New England. LGBT students at the University of Connecticut left “homophobic language” on the dorm room door of a “non-binary” student as well.

  Other universities remain quiet on investigations, like when American University refused to divulge the race of the suspect who wrote “Black people suck” on a whiteboard, or when black Eastern Washington University students reported finding “F*** *** [n word] after their dance class.

  The State University of New York Cortland sung different tunes about racism. It originally declared n-word and swastika graffiti “actions of bias, racism or hate,” but when asked by The Fix for comment a spokesperson said the school would not “speculate about the person’s motive for doing this.”

  Meanwhile, a Penn State student, who is white, vandalized a Black Lives Matter flag at Susquehanna University in Pennsylvania … but he did not know what the flag was. He had just been drinking too much with his friends. The university meanwhile declined to release more information on the students, and the local Selinsgrove police department said they have nothing they can add.

  Similarly, a homeless “middle-aged Black male” reportedly vandalized the Black Student Union house at Florida State University.

  Honorable mentions

  Some cases do not fit clearly into one category.

  Florida State University Professor Eric Stewart lost his job this year after failing to follow proper data procedures and after questions were raised about the accuracy of his findings. He writes about race and crime. One retracted paper claimed high levels of support among white people for lynching. In total, his questioned papers totaled over 3,000 citations by other scholars.

  So, let’s say there were actually 3,019 hate crime hoaxes this year.

  A special mention also goes to the movie about Michigan State University football head coach Duffy Daugherty. It allegedly portrays a black player as a partier and hard drinker who spoke in broken English, and also falsely portrays his white teammates as racists.

  One final story explains why people might perpetrate race hoaxes — it pays.

  That is what University of Virginia race hoaxer Zyahna Bryant found out after getting an endorsement deal from Dove to be a “fat liberation” advocate. Bryant’s past history of accusing a fellow student of joking about running over Black Lives Matters activists did not stop her from scoring this big deal.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 19:00

• Self-Checkout Kiosks At 4,500 Walmarts Now Offer 'Buy Now, Pay Later' Loans For Basic Items
  Self-Checkout Kiosks At 4,500 Walmarts Now Offer ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ Loans For Basic Items

  “Buy now, pay later” (BNPL) loans surged in popularity during Black Friday and Cyber Monday in late November. As Christmas is less than a week away, Walmart shoppers have been greeted with a new BNPL payment at the checkout line. The increased use of BNPL is incredibly problematic for consumers with insurmountable credit card debt and depleted savings. 

  Affirm Holdings announced Tuesday that its BNPL service has been expanded to self-checkout kiosks at 4,500 Walmart stores nationwide. Customers can purchase electronics, apparel, toys, and many more items (except groceries) by spreading payments out from three months to 24 months. 

  “Recent Affirm research revealed that more than half of Americans (54%) are looking for retailers to offer a buy now, pay later option at checkout. Moreover, we’ve found that 76% of consumers would either delay or not make a purchase without Affirm,” said Pat Suh, Affirm’s SVP of Revenue.

  Suh continued, “Expanding our partnership with Walmart and bringing Affirm’s transparent monthly pay-over-time options to their self-checkout kiosks in the US will help even more consumers increase their purchasing power during the holiday shopping season and beyond.” 

  

  A number of government agencies and even the central bank of central banks (Bank for International Settlements) have warned about the BNPL craze. 

  Last month, the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) – the powerful federal banking regulator – sounded the alarm over increased usage of BNPL. 

  OCC warned about the overuse and poor understanding of the BNPL payment structure that could lead to disastrous outcomes for consumers if payments are missed. 

  A report published earlier this month by the Bank for International Settlements said BNPL is mainly being used by young adults, particularly those with low education and maxed-out credit cards.

  Other major retailers might follow Walmart’s lead. It’s never a good sign when retailers expand the purchasing power of broke consumers. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 18:40

• Pennsylvania Abruptly Cuts Short Contract With Voter Registration Firm
  Pennsylvania Abruptly Cuts Short Contract With Voter Registration Firm

  Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The State of Pennsylvania terminated its contract earlier this month with a firm tasked with modernizing its voter registration system, citing the contractor’s inability to adequately address issues with the system.

  

  The state had contracted KNOWiNK, an election software company, to replace the Statewide Uniform Registry of Electors (SURE) system, which manages the voter registration information of more than 8 million Pennsylvania voters. The SURE system stores the data of every legitimate, eligible voter, but there were problems with the system, according to an election official.

  The Pennsylvania State Department terminated the contract on Dec. 4, stating in a letter sent to members of the Pennsylvania County Board of Elections that KNOWiNK would not adequately address “identified deficiencies” in the new SUREVote system meant to replace the current software.

  Jonathan Marks, Pennsylvania’s deputy secretary for elections and commissions, sent the letter.

  Questions about the progress of improving the SURE system have routinely come up in Senate hearings and in the halls of the state capitol. The letter verified the work was behind schedule. It described how over the course of nine months the State Department worked with KNOWiNK, trying to correct the course of the project, “including procuring expert mediation and project management services, bringing on the expertise of a chief modernization officer, and collaborating with our vendor to address Pennsylvania’s contractual project standards,” the letter reads.

  “This administration has made the successful completion and implementation of the SUREVote System a priority … Unfortunately, the Department has concluded that the vendor will not meet … timelines and contractual standards,” the letter states.

  The State Department said it would find another vendor to do the work. It will take time to write and approve a new request for proposals, vet, and hire a new vendor.

  In his letter, Mr. Marks stressed several times that the decision to end the contract would not affect the 2024 election.

  But former State Rep. Frank Ryan is questioning the move. A longtime certified public accountant, Mr. Ryan left his seat in the Pennsylvania House last year specifically to work on election security, believing he could have a bigger effect on public policy outside the legislature than from within.

  “If I were chair of an audit committee, I’d ask, is there an incentive on the part of the Democratic Party to kill the changes to the SURE System until they get to the next presidential election? Because [President Joe] Biden is behind in the polls with [former President] Donald Trump in 2024. I can’t make that allegation because we don’t have enough data, but it would be a hypothesis that I would want to run down.”

  The push to overhaul the SURE System came after a scathing report released in December 2019 by Pennsylvania’s then-Auditor General Eugene DePasquale, who identified internal control weaknesses in the SURE System related to input and maintenance of voter records. The audit revealed examples of potential inaccuracies, which the report said should be sent to counties to be investigated.

  The report states that the State Department refused to cooperate during its investigation and that it denied auditors access to critical documents or excessively redacted documents, leaving the Auditor General’s Office unable to fully achieve three of the eight objectives it had been assigned.

  The auditor, according to the report, was unable to assess the accuracy of the records maintained in the system, was unable to review security protocols of the system, and was unable to review the external controls and methodology for external audits.

  The 2019 audit also identified potential needed areas of improvement related to computer security, information technology, general controls, and interference controls that it felt it could not mention in a publicly available report.

  The audit found issues that it specifically excluded from the report “because of the sensitive nature of this information due to the security concerns over the commonwealth’s critical elections infrastructure. These conditions and our recommendations have been included in a separate, confidential communication, to [State Department] management,” the 2019 report reads.

  The report made 50 recommendations to strengthen State Department policies, including addressing duplicate voter records and records of potentially deceased voters on the voter rolls.

  Because of everything revealed in the report, the auditor general was “unable to establish with any degree of reasonable assurance that the SURE System is secure and that Pennsylvania voter registration records are complete, accurate, and in compliance with applicable laws, regulations, and related guidelines.”

  This SURE System has been in continuous use since the report and is slated for use in again in 2024.

  “At the beginning of this administration, several months ago, we decided to utilize our tested, accurate and safe legacy system for the upcoming 2024 election,” Mr. Marks’s Dec. 4 letter reads.

  $3 Million Spent

  The contract to build the SUREVote system to replace the SURE System had an unconventional beginning. The state signed a nearly $10 million contract with South Dakota-based software company BPro. The 603-page contract signed on Dec. 28, 2020, was to be valid through December 2024. But 42 days later, BPro announced publicly that it had been purchased by KNOWiNK. The Department of State filed an emergency procurement on Feb. 2, 2021, requesting $3 million more for KNOWiNK to fulfill the BPro contract.

  “BPro did not let the Dept. of State know about the acquisition until mid-December, after the agency contract was going through the signature process,” the request, signed by Mr. Marks, reads. “Since BPro is implementing a new system for our Elections Bureau, it is highly time sensitive. It is the desire of the Department to have the deliverables started ASAP, and we would like to create the Emergency Purchase Order with KNOWiNK to pay for deliverables and monthly expenses until the new Agency Contract is in place.”

  The request for additional money was denied.

  Pennsylvania has made payments totaling more than $3.6 million to BPro and KNOWiNK since Feb. 2021, payment records from the Pennsylvania Treasury show.

  KNOWiNK did not respond to a request for comment.

  The company offers states and counties a selection of election-related software, including TotalVote, described on the KNOWiNK website as a centralized voter registration and election management system that securely captures all election information.

  It also provides ePulse, which monitors polling places on Election Day, tracking voter wait times and turnout. Another product KNOWiNK offers is Poll Pad, a set of tablets that replace the poll books voters sign at polling places.

  “Poll Pad has replaced the outdated and inefficient paper model that is often the cause of long lines at the polls and inefficient election record keeping,” the KNOWiNK website reads.

  The company is working in 36 states and Washington, D.C.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 18:20

• 36 Million Customers Affected In Massive Comcast Data Breach
  36 Million Customers Affected In Massive Comcast Data Breach

  Your holiday present from Comcast has arrived, in the form of a massive data breach that has compromised the personal information of nearly 36 million customers. Comcast released a statement on Monday this week stating that a “recent data security incident” occurred involving Citrix software.

  “On October 10, 2023, Citrix announced a vulnerability in software used by Xfinity and thousands of other companies worldwide,” Comcast wrote.

  “Citrix issued additional mitigation guidance on October 23, 2023. Xfinity promptly patched and mitigated the Citrix vulnerability within its systems. However, during a routine cybersecurity exercise on October 25, Xfinity discovered suspicious activity and subsequently determined that between October 16 and October 19, 2023, there was unauthorized access to its internal systems that was concluded to be a result of this vulnerability.”

  “Xfinity notified federal law enforcement and initiated an investigation into the nature and scope of the incident. On November 16, Xfinity determined that information was likely acquired,” the release said.

  

  “After additional review of the affected systems and data, Xfinity concluded on December 6, 2023, that the customer information in scope included usernames and hashed passwords; for some customers, other information may also have been included, such as names, contact information, last four digits of social security numbers, dates of birth and/or secret questions and answers.”

  So, everything?

  Conveniently not included in the release but disclosed in follow up reporting by PhillyBurbs.com was the fact that over 35.8 million customers were affected by the breach, according to a report with Maine’s Attorney General. 

  Comcast has said it is requiring all of its customers to reset their passwords and that it is encouraging its users to use 2FA in the future. 

  “Xfinity advises customers not to re-use passwords across multiple accounts, the company is recommending that customers change passwords for other accounts for which they use the same username and password or security question,” the release said.

  Just in case you didn’t have anything to do heading into the holidays…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 18:00

• 'Margin Calls & Massive Put-Buying' – Stocks & Bond Yields Puke As Goldilocks Dies
  ‘Margin Calls & Massive Put-Buying’ – Stocks & Bond Yields Puke As Goldilocks Dies

  Existing home sales beat (bouncing modestly off record lows), consumer confidence jumped (as inflation expectations declined and labor market conditions worsened), but earnings reports from FedEx and General Mills threw some cold water on the ‘resilient’ consumer, cyclical rebound narrative.

  And it’s the commentary from Corporate America that has us wondering:

  Did the Goldilocks narrative just die?

  • March rate-cut odds soared

  • Rate-cut expectations for next year surged

  • Stocks puked

  • Bond yields plunged across the curve

  • 30Y yields broke below 4.00% – the first close below 4.00% since July

  That smells a lot like a ‘recession’ trade to us as it’s not the Fed’s post-Powell jawboning to walk-back the market’s dovishness (because rates shifted dovishly).

  

  Fed’s Harker was a little more dovish than the recent walkback-of-Powell’s comments by various Fed speakers, but still pushed off any imminent rate-cuts:

  “It’s important that we start to move rates down,” Harker said Wednesday in a local radio interview.

  “We don’t have to do it too fast, and we’re not going to do it right away.”

  Rate-cut expectations for March surged to new cycle highs this morning…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  And expectations for rate-cuts next year re-accelerated dovishly, shrugging off all the FedSpeak of the last week, trying to walk-back what Powell did…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  The Dow ended its streak of losses at 9 days, as the S&P suffered its biggest decline since October…

  

  Starting around 1430ET – margin-call time…

  

  …the biggest sell-program since July smashed stocks lower…(and that was followed quickly by a large buy program)…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  For context, this size of selling pressure is unusual…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Did the L/S funds finally get tapped on the shoulder…

  hedge fund carnage pic.twitter.com/8TTBkV9l1V

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 14, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Or was this why we puked?

  Wall Street’s Biggest Bear Mike Wilson Finally Capitulates: “Equities Have The Green LIght To Ramp Higher” https://t.co/qGezeslRR3

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 19, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  ‘Most Shorted’ stocks were clubbed like a baby seal, with the biggest daily drop since February…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  MAG7 stocks puked…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  As 0-DTE traders dumped calls aggressively in MAG7 stocks…

  

  Source: SpotGamma

  But there was a major 0-DTE S&P Put buyer (4755 Strike) that seemed that prompted the overall market to drop into negative gamma and sent the S&P spiralling below its Put Wall…

  

  Source: SpotGamma

  Goldman’s trading desk offered some color on the sudden drop:

  Looking at S&P E-Mini’s, most volume started printing after 2:30pm, even prior to the break of 4800 and the pickup in volume was real.

  The average run rate over the 45 minutes following the initial move was ~5x greater than earlier in the cash session.

  There were a few headlines floating around as potential reason for the selloff, most notably: *GRAHAM: WILL DRAFT PRE-TAIWAN INVASION SANCTIONS AGAINST CHINA.

  There was also a large put trade bought electronically (SPX 20Dec 4755) that was said to cause a short gamma hedging selloff.

  Ultimately, market volumes are light and it does not take much to get this market moving… especially considering that SPX flirted with ATHs today. 

  It turns out VVIX was right to be worried…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Treasuries were aggressively bid across the curve with the short-end outperforming today (30Y -6bps, 2Y -9bps). Since the FOMC, yields are down 33-38bps…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Despite the ugly 20Y auction, 30Y Yields tumbled back to test 4.00%…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  The dollar rebounded, erasing most of yesterday’s losses…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Bitcoin rallied back above $44,000…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  But Ethereum continues to underperform…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Gold drifted lower…

  

  Oil prices ended lower after WTI topped $75 intraday…

  

  Finally, bear in mind that VIX was not buying the last big squeeze higher in stocks…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  And all that ‘cyclical’ love is a little decoupled from bonds view of the world…

  

  Reality check time?

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 17:55

• Understanding Anti-Capitalist Fallacies
  Understanding Anti-Capitalist Fallacies

  Authored by Roberto Ledezma via The Mises Institute,

  Capitalism, defined as a form of social organization in which there are means of production such as private property and wage labor, is not the moral principle upon which liberalism is based.

  

  The reason for this is that there are nonliberal scenarios that capitalism, as a moral principle, allows for – for example: slavery, sexism, racism, and various forms of violence.

  However, semantic compatibility does not imply a causal relationship between such variables.

  In this brief text, I will explain why certain anticapitalist arguments have fallacious inferences, showing the semantic relationships between different concepts that constitute the political economy and other similar disciplines.

  Fallacious Inferences and False Statements

  Sound arguments are those that contain only true statements and valid inferences. On the other hand, fallacious arguments are those that, regardless of the truth value of their statements, have invalid inferences. An example of such a scenario is as follows:

  Premise 1: All married people are not single.

  Premise 2: No single person is married.

  Conclusion: Socialism is a form of social organization.

  In this example, all the statements are analytical and, therefore, true. However, the conclusion is an invalid inference since its meaning is not contained in the meaning of the premises. Although both its premises and its conclusion are true statements, it is not a sound argument as it contains an invalid inference.

  The definitions previously used do not indicate the impossibility of valid arguments about causal relationships. Valid arguments about causal relationships can exist if their premises indicate the existence of a certain causal relationship and if their conclusions are inferences whose meaning is contained within the meaning of their premises. An example of this would be:

  Premise 1: All types of A are a necessary cause of B.

  Premise 2: X is a type of A.

  Conclusion: X is a necessary cause of B.

  Therefore, it is indeed possible for valid arguments to exist concerning causal relationships. Some arguments with invalid inferences can become valid when one or more premises are added to them. As will be demonstrated in the following sections, many fallacious arguments exhibit structures in which conclusions are erroneously regarded as necessary or sufficient causes, even if their premises and conclusions are contradictory.

  Some Fallacious Arguments against Capitalism

  As explained in the previous section, fallacious arguments can contain true premises or conclusions.

  The use of certain technical terms or complex mathematical operations does not mean that a certain argument is sound or, at the very least, valid.

  Here are some examples of fallacious arguments:

  • From its inception, capitalism was riddled with racism, sexism, and slavery. Therefore, as long as there is capitalism, racism, sexism, and slavery will always exist.

  • The socially necessary labor time required for the production of a particular commodity determines its exchange value. Capitalists appropriate a portion of the value created by their workers. Therefore, capitalists are stealing from their workers.

  • There are poor countries that are capitalist. Therefore, free markets do not serve to alleviate poverty.

  Is Capitalism a Form of Theft?

  As mentioned at the outset, the definition of capitalism used here is compatible with slavery and violence. However, this does not mean that it is the only possible scenario. Semantically, there can be situations in which different individuals, in the absence of coercion and violence, enter into agreements for specific services at predetermined prices within defined timeframes.

  Only if such an agreement is breached would the employer be stealing from the employee through such an employment relationship. An example of this scenario would be if there is a labor contract between individual A and individual B that establishes the payment of $200 per day for the provision of a specific service for five hours. Then, individual A does not provide that amount of money to individual B because he wants individual A to work another two hours despite individual A fulfilling all the agreed conditions. Otherwise, given the definitions used here, if the agreed-upon conditions of such a labor relationship are not violated, it is fallacious to infer that the employer is stealing from the worker.

  If a state imposes limits on the contractual freedom of the individuals it governs, noncompliance with such limits does not mean that the employer is stealing from the employee. If a set of labor regulations is imposed, such as a minimum wage for hourly wage labor or mandatory severance pay, and such regulations are not part of the labor agreement, the noncompliance with these regulations does not mean employer theft from the employee.

  Furthermore, even if it is assumed that the exchange value of a commodity is determined by the socially necessary labor time for its production, the existence of profits in a business activity does not mean that the employer is stealing from their employees. In a labor relationship where the agreement was to pay the employee thirty dollars and the employer pays the employee that amount, the profit margin does not determine whether such a social interaction was theft or not. Even in the absence of risk and opportunity costs, the accrual of profits would not constitute theft by the employer from the employees.

  Free Market Capitalism and Business Freedom

  Capitalism and free markets are two different concepts. There can be a region where, in the absence of state coercion or violence, only cooperatives exist. On the other hand, there can be a region where only capitalist enterprises exist, and due to the presence of certain interventionist economic policies, it may not be possible to buy or sell certain goods/services, set certain prices, or establish penalties for noncompliance with commercial contract terms.

  Furthermore, a free market does not necessarily mean business freedom. This is because the free market refers to the absence of state restrictions on the exchange of property rights over monetary and nonmonetary assets, whereas business freedom refers to the absence of state restrictions on production, consumption, or property exchange activities carried out by a business. Therefore, a broader category than business freedom would be economic freedom, which encompasses not only businesses but also other types of individual behavior—for example, the freedom to cultivate a specific plant, regardless of whether it is for personal consumption or commercial purposes. In the presence of economic freedom, there are no price controls, monopolies through state coercion, or import quotas.

  Lastly, the fact that country A has undergone a greater economic liberalization process than country B does not mean that country A possesses greater economic freedom. A country may eliminate more price controls than another during a specific period of time and still have a greater number of price controls, not to mention the existence of other interventionist economic policies.

  Capitalism and Social Problems

  Even if capitalism were to result in poverty, violence, sexism, racism, and environmental problems, this does not mean that this mode of social organization is the sole cause of such phenomena. Moreover, the fact that a certain form of capitalism generates certain outcomes does not imply that all semantically possible forms of capitalism will have the same consequences.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 12/20/2023 – 17:40

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