Today’s News 21st November 2021

• Should We Accept There Are Problems In The World The US Cannot Solve?
  Should We Accept There Are Problems In The World The US Cannot Solve?

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

  The US and EU need to address the above question.

  

  Philosophical Question of the Day

  Credit Wolfgang Münchau at Eurointelligence for the question. I changed it slightly. He phrased it as EU, not US. 

  The Green MEP, Reinhard Bütigkofer, wrote yesterday that Ursula von der Leyen had personally intervened to stop the EU from upgrading its ties with Taiwan. We ourselves would like to know whether this decision was preceded by a phone call from Berlin, or whether the spirit of Angela Merkel is already roaming independently inside the Berlaymont building.

  The acting German chancellor said yesterday that it would be damaging for Europe to decouple totally from China. So where do go from here?

  [Mish Note: Münchau suddenly shifts the topic to Belarus and the question of an EU Army. What follows is a bit disjointed. I cut a couple of paragraphs but they mostly added to the confusion.]

  The build-up of military capability that is currently being discussed in Brussels is not going to change anything, unless the EU agrees how and when to use it, and how to decide. Those conditions are not met. If you do not have a consensus in favour of qualified majority voting in foreign policy, you do not have a consensus to deploy armed forces. Ask yourself: If you had an EU rapid reaction force, would you have dispatched it to the Polish-Belarus border? To do exactly what? Fight refugees? Would you have taken military action against Alexander Lukashenko’s regime? Maybe bomb Minsk airport? We don’t think so.

  A rapid reaction force is several steps ahead of what needs to be decided right now. Which is start where Merkel left, with the definition of what constitutes our strategic interest in respect of the two big powers on the Eurasian continent: China and Russia. 

  Legitimate commercial interests should be complements by security interests. But do we really want to engage in the China/Taiwan issue? Or should we accept that there are problems in the world the EU cannot, and perhaps should not, get involved in? It would be perfectly plausible for the EU to adopt a narrow foreign policy strategy, based on the defence of commercial, ecological and security interests. That’s already a lot. And if that is so, then surely, Merkel is right that it would be a mistake to decouple from China over Taiwan.

  Rapid Reaction Force? Why?

  Münchau asks the correct questions. But he left off an important point. Even if there was an EU rapid reaction force, every nation in the EU would have to agree to deploy it.

  One of the fundamental problems in the EU is that it takes unanimous consent of 27 nations to do anything that is not explicitly spelled out. And a neither a rapid deployment force nor a European army is spelled out.

  It took over a decade of bickering for every nation in the EU to finally agree to a trade deal with Canada.

  US Needs to Address the Same Question

  Failure to correctly answer that question led to the US losing two wars. The first was Vietnam, the second in Afghanistan.

  Neither was our issue and ultimately US voters turned against each war.

  But problems go far beyond absurd wars based on lies. 

  Trump placed sanctions on Russia and European companies over Gazprom. The result was that Gazprom was completed anyway, by Russia with help from Merkel. 

  If Germany wants to cut a deal with Russia over natural gas, that’s their call, not ours. 

  Gazprom, Taiwan, NATO

  Gazprom was never our battle and we should have stayed out of it. 

  Apparently the EU and Germany are at odds over Taiwan. That means the US cannot  count on the EU for coordinated support against China.

  So why is it that US taxpayers should foot the bill for soldiers in Germany, Poland, and the EU in general?

  Whose battle is it? 

  Trump threatened to cut funding for NATO. He also said he would pull all troops from Afghanistan. 

  He should have. But he was all talk and no show. 

  What About Iran?

  The deal we had with Iran was the opposite. Trump unilaterally killed a deal that NATO our European allies, and our own Joint Chief of Staff all said was working.

  The EU could have acted against Trump’s sanctions, but didn’t. The EU is totally dysfunctional. 

  Regardless, the key question remains for both. 

  We made a mess in the Ukraine by foolishly attempting to convert it into a NATO country. 

  The wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan speak for themselves. ISIS was a direct result of a foolish attack on Iraq.

  None of this meddling ever did the US any good. 

  Correct Focus

  Whether a problem is solvable or not is actually not the correct focus.

  Let’s state the issue in correct terms.

  The EU and the US both need to admit there are problems beyond their control in which meddling is likely to make matters worse. 

  For starters, the US cannot afford to be the world’s policeman and should not even try. 

  The answers are obvious but don’t expect anyone to listen.

  *  *  *

  Like these reports? If so, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 23:30

• 494 Million People Are Not Celebrating 'World Toilet Day'
  494 Million People Are Not Celebrating ‘World Toilet Day’

  Today marks World Toilet Day, which was created to bring awareness to the lack of sanitation, water and hygiene facilities in many parts of the world.

  In 2020, 494 million people, or 6.3 percent of the world population, were still practicing open defecation, the most severe level of lack of sanitation service. Additionally, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz points out, 22 percent around the world did not have access to at least basic sanitation, defined as a private toilet connected to sewage piping, a septic or composting tank or a pit. 46 percent – almost half of the world population – did not live with safely-managed sanitation, meaning that their sewage was not treated properly, posing severe health risks to them as it enables pathogens to re-enter water supplies.

  As recently as the year 2000, 1.3 billion people were still defecating outdoors, with grave health consequences. The UN has been working to eradicated the practice and has made some progress. In 2017, the number of those without access to any bathroom had sunk to 673 million and finally to 494 million in 2020.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Gains remain to be made in Sub-Saharan Africa, where steady population growth continues to put pressure on sanitation services. Cambodia, Ethiopia, Nepal and India saw the largest fall in outdoor defecation since the year 2000, reducing it from affecting around 70 to 85 percent of the population to 10 to 20 percent.

  The latter country has been particularly ambitious in installing proper toilets. Before Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, more than 60 percent of India’s population didn’t have access to a household toilet. Since then, billions of dollars were invested under the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan (“Clean India”) campaign. According to UN numbers, open defecation was reduced to affecting 15 percent of the Indian population in 2020, while those without access to at least basic sanitation now make up around 29 percent.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 23:00

• Shellenberger: Why We Must Arrest Drug Addicts
  Shellenberger: Why We Must Arrest Drug Addicts

  Authored by Michael Shellenberger via Substack,

  Normalizing and liberalizing drug use resulted in 100,000 drug deaths…

  

  The United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC) yesterday announced that 100,000 Americans died from illicit drugs in the 12 month period ending in April, a nearly 30 percent increase from the same period the year before. Progressives blame laws that treat addiction as a criminal rather than public health problem, while conservatives blame lockdowns to covid.

  Both sides are wrong. The cause of the 100,000 deaths is the normalization of hard drug use and the liberalization of drug laws. Many of those deaths were of children poisoned after taking what they thought were prescription drugs they had bought from dealers they met through Snapchat. Many others were of addicts who had first gotten hooked on prescription opioids, then switched to heroin, and more recently to fentanyl.

  It’s true that covid was partly responsible for the increase, and that America has failed miserably to treat addiction. Many of those drug deaths occurred due to self-medication by people, including homeless people given hotel rooms, who suffered worse mental health problems brought on by isolation created by covid. And America lacks a functioning mental health care system capable of providing people with untreated mental illness and addiction the psychiatric and rehabilitation they need.

  But the death toll has been rising gradually from 2000, when just 17,000 people died, to 2020, and the underlying reason is the normalization and liberalization of drug laws. The U.S. liberalized the prescription of opioid pharmaceutical drugs starting in the late 1990s. It’s true that the U.S. tightened prescription regulations in 2010, which is when many opioid addicts turned to heroin. But cities and states also liberalized drug laws, including against open drug scenes in cities, euphemistically referred to as “homeless encampments,” where dealers and buyers meet. And American society has gradually normalized and even glamorized the use of pharmaceutical and hard drugs for 20 years.

  If we are going to significantly reduce drug deaths we need to start arresting drug addicts. I’m not suggesting we arrest people who aren’t breaking any laws other than using hard drugs. People who want to kill themselves in the privacy of their own homes by smoking fentanyl should be free to do so. But people who use drugs, camp publicly, and break other laws stemming from their addictions, such as shoplifting, should be arrested, brought before a judge, and be given the choice of rehab or jail.

  Many progressives and some conservatives will object to this approach by saying that Portugal, Netherlands, and other European nations handled their addiction crises in the late 1980s differently, but they didn’t. Faced with open drug scenes, Portugal and Netherlands also tried the “helping-only” approach of giving addicts clean needles and offering methadone, an opioid substitute, and failed. Addicts took the needles and methadone, kept shooting heroin in public, and dying. It was only after those nations started arresting addicts and giving them the choice of rehab or jail that lives were saved.

  A restaurant owner named Adam Mesnick earlier this week released a video on Twitter of an interview with homeless fentanyl street addict named Diane, 34. She moved to San Francisco from Chicago eight months ago. Diane was crying. “My husband got me started on heroin in 2012,” she said. “I heard they’re starting to put fentanyl in everything because they want people to be addicted to everything.”

  Diane. 34. Explained her father died in an accident and mother committed suicide. She lives at 7th and mission. pic.twitter.com/2xlBgoCRMS

  — bettersoma (@bettersoma) November 17, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Drug decriminalization and “Housing First” advocates say that all we should do to help Diane is to give her a free apartment, needles for shooting and foil for smoking fentanyl, and a place where she can safely use fentanyl. That’s the progressive thing to do, according to San Francisco’s Mayor and Supervisors, who are advocating for a place for addicts to smoke and inject fentanyl. But does that seem like the moral thing to do? Of course it’s not. In fact, it could kill her, in the same way that decriminalization and Housing First policies have contributed to the deaths of 712 people in San Francisco last year.

  

  The moral thing to do is to arrest Diane. Does that sound mean to you? If it does, then you don’t understand addiction, or you’re in denial about its hold over people. In the comments on Twitter to Adam’s video, Jacqui Berlinn, the mother of a fentanyl street addict in San Francisco, said, “She deserves love and compassion mental care and counseling — not needles and foil.” Someone responded, “She has to chose to do that herself. Nobody can force her.” It’s true that Diane has to decide whether to quit fentanyl. But by enforcing our laws against public drug use, we can give Diane the choice of rehab or jail.

  Why don’t we? In a word, victimology. That’s the three part idea that a) Diane is a victim; b) victimhood is not a stage on the road to heroism but rather a permanent state; and c) everything should be given and nothing required of victims. According to the progressive victimologists who run San Francisco, and other progressive cities, the laws against public drug use, public defecation, and shoplifting, should not be enforced against Diane because she’s an addict. As a victim, Diane is sacred, and the system is sinful. As such, it is better to let her die from fentanyl than to enforce the law. It’s part of the Woke religion.

  

  Click image for huge legible version.

  It is Woke religion, a.k.a., victimology, which leads progressives to grossly misrepresent Diane’s situation. Progressives insist, against what they say are our lying eyes, that Diane is homeless not because she is addicted to fentanyl but rather because rents in San Francisco are too high. Progressives insist that the homeless on the streets are locals who couldn’t afford the rent, not people who moved to San Francisco because they knew the city would allow them to maintain their addiction at low cost without risk of arrest. And progressives insist that the only moral approach is to help Diane maintain her addiction, and not enforce the laws when she breaks them.

  In San Fransicko, I debunk the myths that homelessness is a result of high rents, show that Europe saved lives being lost to addiction by arresting addicts and closing open drug scenes, and explain why victimology leads progressives to maintain what is plainly an immoral situation. The title of the book has two meanings. The sickness I describe is the sickness of untreated mental illness and addiction. But the other sickness, San Fransickness, is the sickness of those in the grip of victimology. It is a sickness unto death, one that leads them to deny the fact that the normalization and liberalization of drugs is killing 100,000 of our brothers and sisters, mothers and fathers, every year.

  *  *  *

  Michael Shellenberger is a Time Magazine “Hero of the Environment,”Green Book Award winner, and the founder and president of Environmental Progress. He is author of just launched book San Fransicko (Harper Collins) and the best-selling book, Apocalypse Never (Harper Collins June 30, 2020). Subscribe To Michael’s substack here

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 22:30

• US Inflation: Which Categories Have Been Hit Hardest?
  US Inflation: Which Categories Have Been Hit Hardest?

  Prices have been going up in a number of segments of the economy in recent months, and, as Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley exposes below, the public is taking notice. One indicator of this is that search interest for the term “inflation” is higher than at any point in the past decade.

  

  Recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics highlights rising costs across the board, and shows that specific sectors are experiencing rapid price increases this year.

  

  Where is Inflation Hitting the Hardest?

  Since 1996, the Federal Reserve has oriented its monetary policy around maintaining 2% inflation annually. For the most part, U.S. inflation over the past couple of decades has typically hovered within a percentage point or two of that target.

  Right now, most price categories are exceeding that, some quite dramatically. Here’s how various categories of consumer spending have fared over the past 12 months:

  

   

  Of these top-level categories, fuel and transportation have clearly been the hardest hit.

  Drilling further into the data reveals more nuanced stories as well. Below, we zoom in on five areas of consumer spending that are particularly hard-hit, how much prices have increased over the past year, and why prices are rising so fast:

  1. Gasoline (+50%)

  Consumers are reeling as prices at the gas pump are up more than a dollar per gallon over the previous year.

  Simply put, rising demand and constrained global supply are resulting in higher prices. Even as prices have risen, U.S. oil production has seen a slow rebound from the pandemic, as American oil companies are wary of oversupplying the market.

  Meanwhile, President Biden has identified inflation as a “top priority”, but there are limited tools at the government’s disposal to curb rising prices. For now, Biden has urged the Federal Trade Commission to examine what role energy companies are playing in rising gas prices.

  2. Natural Gas (+28%)

  Natural gas prices have risen for similar reasons as gasoline. Supply is slow to come back online, and oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico was adversely affected by Hurricane Ida in September.

  Compared to the previous winter, households could see their heating bills jump as much as 54%. An estimated 60% of U.S. households heat their homes with fossil fuels, so rising prices will almost certainly have an effect on consumer spending during the holiday season.

  3. Used Vehicles (+26%)

  The global semiconductor crunch is causing chaos in a number of industries, but the automotive industry is uniquely impacted. Modern vehicles can contain well over a thousand chips, so constrained supply has hobbled production of nearly a million vehicles in the U.S. alone. This chip shortage is having a knock-on effect on the used vehicle market, which jumped by 26% in a single year. The rental car sector is also up by nearly 40% over the same period.

  4. Meats (+15%)

  Meat producers are facing a few headwinds, and the result is higher prices at the cash register for consumers. Transportation and fuel costs are factoring into rising prices. Constrained labor availability is also an issue for the industry, which was exacerbated by COVID-19 measures. As a top-level category, inflation is high, but in specific animal product categories, such as uncooked beef and bacon, inflation rates have reached double digits over the past 12 months.

  5. Furniture and Bedding (+12%)

  This category is being influenced by a few factors. The spike in lumber prices along with other raw materials earlier in the year has had obvious impacts. Materials aside, actually shipping these cumbersome goods has been a challenge due to global supply chain issues such a port back-ups.

  How Inflation Could Influence Consumer Spending

  Rising prices inevitably impact the economy as consumers adjust their buying habits.

  According to a recent survey, 88% of Americans say they are concerned about U.S. inflation. Here are the top five areas where consumers plan to cut back on their spending:

  

   

  Will Inflation Continue to Rise in 2022?

  Many experts believe that U.S. inflation will decelerate going into 2022, though there’s no consensus on the matter.

  Improved semiconductor supply and an easing of port congestion around the world could help slow inflation down if nothing goes seriously wrong. That said, if the last few years are any indication, unexpected events could shift the situation at any time.

  For the near term, consumers will need to adjust to the sticker shock.

  *  *  *

  Where does this data come from?

  Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Consumer Price Index (November 10, 2021)
  Data Note: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two population groups: all urban consumers and
  urban wage earners and clerical workers, which represent about 93% of the total U.S. population. CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation, doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 22:00

• "They Laughed At The Parents" – Leaked Audio Reveals How California Teachers Recruit Kids Into LGBTQ Clubs
  “They Laughed At The Parents” – Leaked Audio Reveals How California Teachers Recruit Kids Into LGBTQ Clubs

  By Brad Jones of the Epoch Times

  A leaked audio recording revealed California teachers mocking parents over concerns about homosexual and transgender indoctrination at school, said a source who attended a recent teachers union conference in Palm Springs.

  

  The recording, obtained by The Epoch Times, captured two seventh-grade teachers, Kelly Baraki and Lori Caldeira from Buena Vista Middle School in Salinas, Calif., telling other teachers how to recruit students into LGBTQ clubs, also known as “Gay-Straight Alliance” (GSA) clubs, at school.

  “It was horrifying to listen to not just one teacher but really all of the teachers in all of these seminars, excoriating parents,” said the source, who goes by the pseudonym Rebecca Murphy.

  Murphy attended the California Teachers Association (CTA) conference in late October. She told The Epoch Times the teachers “mocked” parents for their concerns, and suggested they know better than parents about what’s best for their children.

  “They laughed at the parents,” Murphy said.

  The sold-out CTA conference, billed as the “2021 LGBTQ+ Issues Conference, Beyond the Binary: Identity & Imagining Possibilities,” was held Oct. 29 to 31.

  The CTA has hosted similar “Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity” (SOGI) professional development training for at least the last two years, according to an event notice posted on the United Teachers of Los Angeles (UTLA) website, which asks teachers: “Do you have the courage to create a safe environment that fosters bravery to explore sexual orientation, gender identity and expressions?”

  However, according to Murphy, the purpose of conference in Palm Springs appeared to be about teachers showing other teachers how to undermine the authority of parents and school administrators and conceal activities related to gender inclusion and sexual orientation from them.

  The three classes Murphy attended were designed to recruit middle school students to GSA clubs, she said.

  “The overarching theme of the classes that I attended were California Teachers instructing other teachers on how to sneak in the LGBTQ+ curriculum in a manner that does not alert parents,” Murphy said.

  Caldeira and Baraki led a workshop called “How we run a ‘GSA’ in Conservative Communities,” and they described the obstacles they faced as activist teachers in concealing the activities of these clubs from parents.

  In the audio clip, Caldeira advised teachers who lead LGBTQ clubs to maintain an air of plausible deniability so they can play dumb if they are questioned by parents.

  “Because we are not official, we have no club rosters. We keep no records,” said Caldeira, who is also an LGBTQ club leader. “In fact, sometimes we don’t really want to keep records because if parents get upset that their kids are coming? We’re like, ‘Yeah, I don’t know. Maybe they came?’ You know, we would never want a kid to get in trouble for attending if their parents are upset.”

  Baraki backed up Caldeira’s advice, suggesting activist teachers to disguise the nature of GSA clubs by calling them something less obvious. Baraki provided an example of this deception, pointing out she avoided naming her LGBTQ club a GSA. Instead, she called it the “Equity Club” and later changed the name to the “You Be You” club.

  The teachers bragged about spying on students’ online searches and activity as well as eavesdropping on their conversations to identify and recruit sixth-grade students into these LGBTQ clubs whose membership rolls are kept hidden from parents. They suggested that parents who refuse to call their child by pronouns of the child’s choosing should be arrested and charged with child abuse, Murphy said.

  Buena Vista Middle School falls under the jurisdiction of the Spreckels Union School District (SUSD). Another nearby district, Salinas Union High School District (SUHSD) has been a center of controversy over its mandatory ninth grade ethnic studies program, which teaches elements of critical race theory.

  SUSD Board President Steve McDougall, Superintendent Eric Tarallo, and school board members did not respond to Epoch Times inquiries about the leaked audio. Neither did Caldeira and Baraki.

  Anti-Bullying Presentation

  Caldeira also discussed a yearly anti-bullying presentation she provides to students along with Baraki, and she said LGBTQ issues were not the only topics they discussed.

  “We also covered religious differences, race, cultural backgrounds, family status poverty—everything that is listed in the Parents’ Rights handbook.”

  However, when the kids went home and talked to their parents about the presentation, the parents complained about the LGBTQ content. Baraki suggested a different strategy to avoid resistance from parents.

  “Next year, we’re going to do just a little mind-trick on our sixth graders. They were last to go through this presentation and the gender stuff was the last thing we talked about. So next year, they’ll be going first with this presentation and the gender stuff will be the first thing they hear about. Hopefully to mitigate, you know, these kind of responses, right?” Baraki said.

  Baraki ridiculed a parent who complained she hadn’t planned on having a conversation about sexual orientation and gender identity issues with her middle-schooler but was pushed into it by the school.

  “I know, so sad, right? Sorry for you, you had to do something hard!” Baraki told her audience. “Honestly, your 12-year-old probably knew all that, right?”

  When a principal suggested to another parent to enroll their child in a private school over the controversy, Caldeira said, “We count that as a win.”

  Controlling Morning Announcements

  Caldeira also spoke about how she controls morning announcements at the school.

  “That’s another type of strategy I can give you,” she said. “I’m the one who controls the messaging. Everybody says, ‘Oh, Ms. Caldeira, you’re so sweet, you volunteered to do that.’ Of course, I’m so sweet that I volunteered to do that, because then I control the information that goes out. And, for the first time this year, students have been allowed to put openly LGBT content into our morning announcement slides.”

  She went on to boast about the students she recruited to help with the announcements.

  “Three of the kids on the team, two of them are non-binary, and the other one is just very fluid in every way. She’s fabulous. So, it’s actually a nice group,” she said.

  Caldeira pointed out more than once that she can’t be fired, and she thanked CTA for her tenure and for providing resources and tools.

  “You can’t fire me for running a GSA,” she said. “You can be mad, but you can’t fire me for it.”

  “CTA has made it very clear that they are devoted to human rights and equity,” she added.

  Caldeira tells teachers, that she and Baraki have acted with “great integrity.”

  “We never crossed a line,” she says. “We’ve wanted to, but we never have.”

  School Response

  After information about the leaked audio was made public this week, Supt. Tarallo, SUSD President McDougall and Kate Pagaran, the principal at Buena Vista Middle School, issued a letter Nov. 19 addressed to the “SUSD Community” that the “UBU You Be You” club has been suspended.

  “Any future student clubs will be required to submit an outline of all activities and materials before being allowed to meet,” the letter states. “Student sign-in sheets will be maintained and parent/guardian permission slips will be sent home prior to a club holding a meeting.”

  The letter states that “all messaging shared in the morning announcements” will be controlled and distributed by the principal, a practice that “will be in place permanently.”

  “Teachers are prohibited from monitoring students’ online activity for any non-academic purpose.”

  SUSD will follow state-approved standards and curriculum on all presentations involving “sensitive themes such as sexuality” and “materials of any sensitive themes will be shared with parents/guardians before being shown to students,” the letter states.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 21:30

• Navy Shipbuilder Backpedals On Vaccine Mandate After Flood Of Employees Threaten To Quit
  Navy Shipbuilder Backpedals On Vaccine Mandate After Flood Of Employees Threaten To Quit

  A federal subcontractor to the US Navy reversed course over the vaccine mandate this week, and announced that most workers will not longer be required to get the Covid-19 vaccine.

  

  Huntington Ingalls Industries, parent company of Newport News Shipbuilding made the announcement on Tuesday night notifying employees that they will no longer have to comply with a January 4 deadline.

  “with respect to Ingalls Shipbuilding and Newport News Shipbuilding, our customer has confirmed that our contracts do not include a requirement to implement the mandate,” reads the letter. “In light of this development, we are hereby suspending the deadline for vaccination, except where specific Technical Solutions contracts require it.“

  The shipyard initially announced that all 25,000 employees would need to be fully vaccinated by Dec. 8 as a “condition of continued employment,” only to move it to January – and now, not at all.

  Some shipyard employees feel ‘tricked’ however, as they “only got the vaccine because of the mandate,” according to WTKR.

  “They made me get it and then lifted it,” said Newport News Shipyard employee, Deshawn Royal. “I didn’t want to get it, but they said I had to get it or we were going to get fired. And then they lifted it. Y’all did us wrong.”

  Another employee, Rodney Apop, said that a lot of co-workers feel the same way.

  “They went ahead and jumped, and they didn’t have the choice to do it,” he said. “And now when they take [the mandate] away, they wish they had known so they didn’t have to.”

  Employees speculate the suspension came after workers threatened to quit.

  “You’re gonna lose your people,” said Royal. “Not everybody is gonna get it. It’s not worth a lot of people’s money to get injected with something they don’t want.”

  In Petter’s letter to employees, he stated, “We have not wanted to lose a single employee to the virus, or to the effect of the mandate.”

  But sentiments varied between shipyard employees.

  Anthony Askew, an employee within the IT Department at HII, said his coworkers are advocates for getting vaccinated against COVID-19.

  “All of us got the vaccine so we pretty much are on the same page in terms of supporting getting the vaccine,” he said. -WTKR

  While there is no longer a mandate, the company is still encouraging employees to get vaccinated. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 21:00

• We Are In Mass 'Jonestown' Delusion Territory
  We Are In Mass ‘Jonestown’ Delusion Territory

  Submitted by Larry McDonalds, author of The Bear Traps Report

  In April, Goldman Sachs was looking for tame CPI inflation by December 2021. That’s right, the best and brightest told us core would be 2.20% and headline data of 2.77% was coming. Today, they brought out the eraser with a forecast of 5.19% and 6.31%.

  

  Over the last 30 years looking at markets, there are periods when things happen so fast millions are left in a previous mindset, not fully comprehending the world has changed in a secular fashion, NOT cyclically.

  “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen” Vladimir Ilyich Lenin reminds us. Years and years of inflation without a pulse has changed human behavior in such a profound way, a true complacency overdose took over.

  Over the last 18 months, from Beijing to Tokyo, to Berlin to Washington no amount of fiscal spending has been unacceptable. Debt monetization via central banks, MMT (modern monetary theory) has moved from “taboo” to “bring it on” territory.

  Looking forward, every hour, minute and second of each day more and more market participants are waking up to the new reality of sustained inflation. On the Sunday talk shows, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen threw the inflation blame on the pandemic and is essentially making the point that rate hikes are NOT needed once the pandemic is over inflation will disappear is the argument.

  This is HIGHLY BULLISH gold and silver miners. In our view, Yellen is using public forums to lay out the future Fed policy path. There is NO QUESTION Yellen has President Biden’s ear and if Fed Chair Powell wants the job, he must fall in line.

  Interest costs to taxpayers have nearly doubled ($562B) since 2000 with interest rates/bond yields falling from near 7.0 % to 1.5%. How much pressure is on the Fed to further monetize debt 2022-2030??

  Extreme measures. CPI is normalizing at a much higher trajectory, that’s all that matters for consumers.

  We are in mass “Jonestown” delusion territory. Over $100T of the planet’s wealth is positioned in bonds sub 2% in yield with inflation normalizing this cycle at 3-4% vs 1-2% post Lehman.

  It’s mind boggling that people are focused on YoY inflation coming down, of course, it will, that’s irrelevant . All that matters is when does inflation come back to the 2010-2020 norm? If that is 5 years from now, trillions of dollars of assets are in the wrong place.

  Corporations are making more money than ever while inflation is at multi decade highs which in turn is causing a sharp decline in real wages. Hard to imagine a better recipe for coast to coast labor strikes.

  The Fourth Turning will be characterized by open conflict between the management class and labor. Unions will grow their ranks. The strike at Deere has farmers scrambling for used tractors and tractor parts.

  Prices increased by 9.5% in the 3rd quarter, as per The Machinery Pete Used Values Index, the keepers of which predict higher increases 4th quarter. As a result the planting season will be more expensive. Those increased costs will be passed on to the consumer. This will cause the price of food to be higher.

  There is no greater exercise of the power of labor than a work strike. And we see here how it causes inflation. Worse than 2008-2009, UMich Buying Conditions for large Household Durables , “furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that “ printed at 78 last week vs. 112 last year and as low as 98 during the 2008 financial crisis. U.S. demand destruction from inflation is near unprecedented levels.

  

  Bullish gold and silver yields on 10 year inflation indexed Treasuries are at their most negative in twenty+ years as investors expect the economy to continue shrinking in real terms. The last time the Fed hiked rates 2015-2018, these yields ranged from a positive +0.05% to +1.2% vs today at -1.2%.

  

  S&P 500 earnings growth expectations do not jive with real evidence of demand destruction; discussing the record PEG level, BofA says that “today’s level would suggest losses of -20% over the next 12 months based on the historical relationship.”

  

  It is a “deer in the headlights” moment for the Street. After buying the Fed’s “transitory” narrative for nine months, the Street still has 2021, 2022, and 2023 S&P 500 earnings growth per share up in the clouds. Bonds are screaming growth is plunging as demand destruction is taxing consumers and profits, but the Street just took up their numbers bigly! They missed 2020 by a country mile on covid (understandable), and then lowballed their 2021 outlook in Q1 this year, then they took 2021, 2022, and 2023 numbers UP 20% 25% higher over the summer. Then inflation becomes NOT transitory.

  This is a screaming sell signal.

  As inflation has proved more sustainable, U.S. tech stocks have a near term date with an elevator shaft. Hard assets > financial assets 2020-2030.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 20:30

• Rise Of The Robots
  Rise Of The Robots

  While more and more consumers enjoy the convenience of having a robot vacuum their home or take care of the lawn, Statista’s Felix Richter details below that it is in industrial applications that robotics have made the biggest impact.

  State-of-the-art manufacturing processes are unthinkable without industrial robots handling part of the workload, whether it’s handling, welding or assembling, which are the three most common applications of newly installed industrial robots in 2020.

  

  As the following chart, based on data from the International Robotics Federation shows, the operational stock of industrial robots has tripled over the past decade, with more than three million robots in use across various industries by the end of 2020.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  According to the IFR, Asia leads the way in the shift to automated processes, with China in particular installing industrial robots at breakneck speed. In 2020, China installed 168,400 industrial robots, amounting to 44 percent of global installations.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 20:00

• Boondoggle Democracy For The Elites
  Boondoggle Democracy For The Elites

  Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

  President Joe Biden puffed out his chest.  He grinned from ear to ear.  He’d finally accomplished something as President.  The passing of a $1.2 trillion infrastructure boondoggle.

  

  Upon signing the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act on the White House lawn this week Biden declared:

  “That’s how our system works.  That’s American democracy.  And I am signing a law that is truly consequential, because we made our democracy deliver for the people.”

  No doubt, American democracy is a giant scam.  It has been for a long time.  In fact, democratic mob rule supplanted the limited government of a republic with the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment in 1913.  This amendment established direct election of Senators by popular vote.

  In short, the Seventeenth Amendment allows the Senate to buy votes from their constituents in exchange for delivering federal money back to their districts.  This ensures the government acts to meet the collective demand for private prosperity through public spending.  It also rewards political corruption and public graft.

  For example, 19 Senate Republicans and 13 House Republicans broke ranks to pass the boondoggle bill.  They got extra heapings of government lard in return.

  Senator Deb Fischer and Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, who both voted for the bill, delivered $2.5 billion for state road and highway repairs and $216 million for water infrastructure.  Bacon said he “thought it was good for the district and good for America.”

  We’re all for Nebraska having nice roads and water infrastructure.  But shouldn’t residents of Nebraska pay for their own roads and water treatment plants?  Shouldn’t all state and local governments be responsible to provide for their own infrastructure?  Why does Washington have a hand in any of it?

  The reality is this $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill delivers a giant burden to the American people at the benefit of the Washington elite and connected insiders.  That’s how 21st century American democracy works.  That’s how it delivers for the elite…and not the people.

  Let’s explore…

  Ticking Timebomb

  Over the last 100 years the American system of democratic mob rule has devolved to self-cannibalization.  The elites consume the productivity of working and middle class Americans, while indenturing future offspring to debt servitude.  After stuffing their faces at the public trough, they toss dog scraps to placate the mob.

  By consuming itself, the nation can temporarily live beyond its means.  This dynamic is best observed by looking at the growth in federal debt since the turn of the century.

  When Y2K came and went without a hitch the federal debt was about $5.6 trillion.  Today it’s over $28.9 trillion.  In just 22 years the federal debt has increased by over 416 percent.  Over this same period, real U.S. gross domestic product has only increased from about $12.5 trillion to roughly $23 trillion – or roughly 84 percent.

  

  The difference between debt growth and GDP growth, as far as we can tell, is a recipe for disaster.  Yet this isn’t the half of it…

  You see, this growth in national debt relative to national income coincided with a corresponding growth in something for nothing policies.  This growth in national debt relative to national income also occurred during a period of especially cheap credit.

  Cheap credit, however, can also give way to expensive credit.  And as interest rates rise, the net interest payments to service the debt also rise.

  Net interest payments on the national debt for fiscal year 2021 were just over $300 billion.  This was in a year when the yield on the 10-Year Treasury note was mostly below 1.5 percent.  However, it won’t take much of an increase in interest rates to completely blowout the budget.

  According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, interest rates of one percentage point higher for all of fiscal year 2021 would have totaled interest costs of $530 billion — more than the cost of Medicaid.  Rates two percentage points higher would have totaled interest costs of $750 billion, which is more than the federal government spends on defense or Medicare.  And at three percentage points higher, interest costs would have totaled $975 billion — almost as much as is spent on Social Security.

  The greater the federal debt, the more exposed the federal government is to the ticking timebomb of rising interest rates.  What if the 10-Year Treasury note jumps to over 15 percent like it did in 1981 to counteract raging inflation?

  That would likely mean that net interest rate payments would be made entirely with borrowed money.  This along with mass currency debasement is where self-cannibalization ultimately leads.

  In the meantime, President Biden and team have hatched a pretty neat scheme to shirk responsibility…

  Boondoggle Democracy for the Elites

  The main task for politicians is to evade responsibility when it’s discovered that infrastructure spending, like other forms of waste, is flushed down the toilet.  Biden knows something about this.  He has experience.

  When President Barry Obama signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act in early-2009 he tasked his Vice President, Joe Biden, with ensuring the $800 billion was spent wisely.  Biden put together an oversight team to follow the money.  He also pleaded with local politicians to not spend the money on “stupid things.”  Little good this did.  According to the Wall Street Journal:

  “An Alaskan village called Ouzinkie, population 167, received a $15 million airport while some major hubs received nothing.  Only about 10 percent of the law’s spending, or $80 billion, was devoted to infrastructure—and very little went to critical work.  Funding ‘shovel-ready’ projects promised by Mr. Obama meant that money didn’t go to the bridges most in need of repair but to jobs that could quickly clear the thicket of regulatory permitting.  Repaving roads was a typical activity; less than 12 percent of the infrastructure spending went for work on bridges.  A promised green-jobs boom never materialized.” 

  So where did the remaining 90 percent of the money go if only 10 percent went to infrastructure?  Does Biden know?  We suspect it went to the elites and connected insiders who did a lot of nothing with it while bringing home inflated incomes.

  Alas, the newest infrastructure boondoggle bill appears to be a repeat of the last one.  Washington’s merely piling boondoggles upon boondoggles.  The Cato Institute’s Randal O’Toole writes:

  “About half of the transportation dollars in the bill are dedicated to Amtrak and urban transit, modes of transportation that carry less than 1 percent of passenger travel and no freight.  While the other half appears to be dedicated to highways, much of that will be spent on projects that will reduce, not maintain or increase, roadway capacities.”

  At this point, what’s most important to President Biden is that Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, and other members of his cabinet have a way to shirk responsibility for all the waste to come.  Thus Biden announced that former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu will serve as senior advisor and infrastructure coordinator for the boondoggle bill.

  Will Landrieu do a better job than Biden did in this role?

  One can only hope.  But regardless, it really doesn’t matter…

  The Washington elites, thanks to 21st century American democracy, have another boondoggle bill to exploit and feed off.  After that, they’ll get another.  And countless roads will get repaved whether they need to or not.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 19:30

• US Urges Taliban To "Earn Legitimacy" For Release Of $9BN In Frozen Afghan Funds
  US Urges Taliban To “Earn Legitimacy” For Release Of $9BN In Frozen Afghan Funds

  Twenty years of war and occupation, thousands of US troop and countless Afghan civilian deaths, and trillions of dollars later, Washington is now essentially begging the Taliban rulers of Afghanistan to “earn” legitimacy and respect in the eyes of international powers. 

  The Taliban since its takeover of the country last August amid the chaotic US troop pullout has been demanding the US release billions in frozen Afghan funds held abroad. On Friday the new Biden-picked US special envoy for Afghanistan Thomas West called on the hardline Islamist organization to reform itself, and then the US would mull unfreezing the assets.

  

  “Legitimacy and support must be earned by actions to address terrorism, establish an inclusive government, and respect the rights of minorities, women & girls — including equal access to education & employment,” West said in a statement posted to Twitter.

  Currently the US has frozen at least $9 billion in funds – which has angered the Taliban, also at a moment the group is pressing the United Nations to take a seat at the UN in New York from the former national government. 

  “Afghanistan was unfortunately already suffering a terrible humanitarian crisis before mid-August, made worse by war, years of drought, & the pandemic,” West said further in his statement, explaining that Washington had stuck by its prior vow to cut off foreign aid to the country in the case of a Taliban takeover. 

  “US officials made clear to the Taliban for years that if they pursued a military takeover rather than a negotiated settlement with fellow Afghans then critical non-humanitarian aid provided by the international community — in an economy enormously dependent on aid, including for basic services — would all but cease. That is what occurred,” he said. A limited amount of humanitarian aid has been approved by the Biden administration, however…

  5/5 The U.S. will continue to support the Afghan people with humanitarian aid. We’ve provided $474 million this year, applaud the robust efforts of Allies & partners in this space, & are making every effort to help the UN & humanitarian actors scale up to meet needs this winter.

  — U.S. Special Representative Thomas West (@US4AfghanPeace) November 19, 2021

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  Ironically, the US sanctions on Kabul and blockage of foreign aid is likely mostly hurting the civilian population as the war-time economy continues to spiral, also amid the expectation that Western funds will continue being blocked for at least many more months to come.

  But despite prior attempts of the Taliban to present itself with a new “moderate” image, its hardline religious police have returned to the streets, and ghastly practices such as hanging executed bodies in public have returned, including cutting off hands for criminal offenses. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 19:00

• Fighting "Information Disorder": Aspen's Orwellian Commission On Controlling Speech In America
  Fighting “Information Disorder”: Aspen’s Orwellian Commission On Controlling Speech In America

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  The Aspen Institute has issued the results of its much heralded 16-person Commission on Information Disorder on how to protect the public from misinformation. The commission on disinformation and “building trust” was partially headed by Katie Couric who is still struggling with her own admission that she edited an interview to remove controversial statements by the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

  

  The Aspen recommendations however are a full-throated endorsement of systems of censorship.

  The findings and recommendations are found in an 80-page report on how to combat “disinformation” and “misinformation,” which are remarkably ill-defined but treated as a matter of “we know when we see it.”  From the outset, however, the Commission dismissed the long-standing free speech principle that the solution to bad speech is better speech, not censorship. The problem is that many today object to allowing those with opposing views to continue to speak or others continue to listen to them.  The Commission quickly tosses the free speech norm to the side:

  “The biggest lie of all, which this crisis thrives on, and which the beneficiaries of mis- and disinformation feed on, is that the crisis itself is uncontainable. One of the corollaries of that mythology is that, in order to fight bad information, all we need is more (and better distributed) good information. In reality, merely elevating truthful content is not nearly enough to change our current course.”

  In addition to Couric, the Commission was headed by Color of Change President Rashad Robinson and Chris Krebs, former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. Robinson was also a notable choice since he has been one of the most outspoken advocates of censorship. While some of us have been denouncing the expanding system of censorship by companies like Facebook, Robinson was threatening boycotts if the companies do not “rein in” those considered racists or spreaders of misinformation.

  The Commission also includes Prince Harry who has referred to free speech protections under the First Amendment as “bonkers.”

  Much of the report seems more aspirational in recommendations like “endorsing efforts that focus on exposing how historical and current imbalances of power, access and equity are manufactured and propagated with mis- and disinformation — and on promoting community-led solutions to forging social bonds.”

  The Commission also appears to endorse the movement against “objectivity” and “both sideism” in the media: “Commissioners also discussed the need to adjust journalistic norms to avoid false equivalencies between lies and empirical fact in the pursuit of ‘both sides’ and ‘objectivity,’ particularly in areas of public health, civil rights, or election outcomes.”

  Former New York Times Magazine reporter Nikole Hannah-Jones was one of the journalists who pushed the New York Times to denounce its own publication and promise to curtail columns in the future. In so doing, she railed against those who engage in what she called “even-handedness, both sideism” journalism.  Likewise,  Stanford Communications Professor Emeritus Ted Glasser has publicly called for an end of objectivity in journalism as too constraining for reporters in seeking “social justice.” In an interview with The Stanford Daily, Glasser insisted that journalism needed to “free itself from this notion of objectivity to develop a sense of social justice.” He rejected the notion that journalism is based on objectivity and said that he views “journalists as activists because journalism at its best — and indeed history at its best — is all about morality.”  Thus, “journalists need to be overt and candid advocates for social justice, and it’s hard to do that under the constraints of objectivity.”

  However, the most chilling aspect of the report is the obvious invitation for greater forms of censorship. It calls for the government to become involved in combatting misinformation, the scourge of free speech and an invitation for state controls over speech. Ironically, there is no need for such direct government involvement when social media companies are acting as the equivalent of a state media in the censorship of public debates.

  The import of the recommendations are abundantly clear:

   “Reducing Harms: Mitigating the worst harms of mis- and disinformation, such as threats to public health and democratic participation, and the targeting of communities through hate speech and extremism.

  • Comprehensive Federal Approach: Establish a comprehensive strategic approach to countering disinformation and the spread of misinformation, including a centralized national response strategy, clearly-defined roles and responsibilities across the Executive Branch, and identified gaps in authorities and capabilities.

  • Public Restoration Fund: Create an independent organization, with a mandate to develop systemic misinformation countermeasures through education, research, and investment in local institutions.

  • Civic Empowerment: Invest and innovate in online education and platform product features to increase users’ awareness of and resilience to online misinformation.

  • Superspreader Accountability: Hold superspreaders of mis- and disinformation to account with clear, transparent, and consistently applied policies that enable quicker, more decisive actions and penalties, commensurate with their impacts — regardless of location, or political views, or role in society.

  • Amendments to Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act of 1996: 1) Withdraw platform immunity for content that is promoted through paid advertising and post promotion; and 2) Remove immunity as it relates to the implementation of product features, recommendation engines, and design.”

  The ill-defined terms of “misinformation” and “disinformation” become more menacing when those terms are used as the basis for a government and private sector system to take “decisive actions and penalties” against those who spread such information.  The Commission is more focused on harm than the specific definition:

  “Disinformation inflames long-standing inequalities and undermines lived experiences for historically targeted communities, particularly Black/African American communities. False narratives can sow division, hamper public health initiatives, undermine elections, or deliver fresh marks to grifters and profiteers, and they capitalize on deep-rooted problems within American society. Disinformation pours lighter fluid on the sparks of discord that exist in every community.”

  In the end, the Commission dismisses the classic defense of free speech while calling for greater regulation of speech to address “deep-rooted problems in American society.” However, the deepest rooted problems in our society include the denial of free speech. Indeed, the First Amendment is premised on the belief that this right is essential to protecting the other freedoms in the Constitution. It is the right that allows people to challenge their government and others on electoral issues, public health issues, and other controversies.

  The Aspen report is the latest evidence of a building anti-free speech movement in the United States. It is a movement that both rejects core free speech values but also seeks to normalize censorship. In the last few years, we have seen an increasing call for private censorship from Democratic politicians and liberal commentators. Faculty and editors are now actively supporting modern versions of book-burning with blacklists and bans for those with opposing political views. Columbia Journalism School Dean Steve Coll has denounced the “weaponization” of free speech, which appears to be the use of free speech by those on the right. So the dean of one of the premier journalism schools now supports censorship.

  Free speech advocates are facing a generational shift that is now being reflected in our law schools, where free speech principles were once a touchstone of the rule of law. As millions of students are taught that free speech is a threat and that “China is right” about censorship, these figures are shaping a new and more limited role for free speech in society.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 18:30

• Northrop Grumman To Develop "Agile And Affordable" Lunar Rover For Astronauts 
  Northrop Grumman To Develop “Agile And Affordable” Lunar Rover For Astronauts 

  Aerospace and defense technology company Northrop Grumman unveiled a high-tech dune-buggy that astronauts may use once they return to the lunar surface.

  Northrop Grumman is designing an unpressurized Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) to transport NASA’s Artemis astronauts across the lunar surface. NASA created the Artemis program during the Trump administration, intending to have the first woman and first person of color on the moon between 2024-2025 but come to find out this month, NASA’s Office of the Inspector General said the landing event will probably take place several years after 2024. 

  “Together with our teammates, we will provide NASA with an agile and affordable vehicle design to greatly enhance human and robotic exploration of the lunar surface to further enable a sustainable human presence on the Moon and, ultimately, Mars,” said Steve Krein, vice president, civil and commercial space, tactical space systems division, Northrop Grumman.

  

  Not much is known about LTV regarding the specific design and capabilities for potential use in the Artemis program. Northrop Grumman partnered with propulsion system specialist AVL, space products provider Intuitive Machines, space technology company Lunar Outpost, and tire expert Michelin to help design the LTV. 

  NASA has turned to the commercial industry for the LTV. The space agency put out a call in August requesting LTV designs from U.S. companies. The request stated that a lunar rover must be electric-powered and survive the moon’s surface for at least a decade.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 18:00

• Peak Season Over: Container-Ship Arrivals In Southern California Fall
  Peak Season Over: Container-Ship Arrivals In Southern California Fall

  By Greg Miller of Freightwaves

  Amid all the headlines on consumer demand, imports to America’s primary container gateway — the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach — have sunk back to pre-COVID levels, not only due to congestion stranding massive amounts of cargo offshore, but also due to a pullback in ship arrivals that’s being obscured by the congestion story.

  LA-LB imports normalizing

  The Port of Los Angeles held its monthly press briefing on Tuesday, featuring Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, but the port didn’t have its monthly numbers ready at the time of the event.

  Two days later, the country’s largest port belatedly reported that it imported 467,287 twenty-foot equivalent units of containerized cargo in October, down 8% from October 2020 and down 4% from October 2018, pre-COVID.

  Looking at LA-LB volumes combined, October import volumes totaled 852,287 TEUs, down 6% from last October and flat with October 2018 levels. Monthly imports to LA-LB in October were down 13% from this year’s May peak of 980,450 TEUs.

  

  LA-LB imports are still on track for a record year. Also, at the end of last month, statistics from the Marine Exchange of Southern California showed ships waiting offshore with a capacity of 637,326 TEUs. In other words, October would have been by far the best import month ever for Southern California, if only all that cargo could have made it ashore.

  Ship arrivals are falling

  The number of container ships arriving in LA-LB is actually falling as wait times from anchorage to berth are simultaneously surging.

  The rising number of ships at anchor or loitering is creating the perception of a rising tide of U.S. imports, when in fact, higher wait times for ships are being caused by landside logistics issues and gridlock at the ports — not higher inbound container-ship arrivals.

  

  The Marine Exchange publishes a daily harbor traffic update showing the number of container ships scheduled to arrive the following day. American Shipper analyzed the daily Marine Exchange data on scheduled arrivals for the following day from Aug. 1 through Wednesday.

  In the second half of this year, container-ship daily arrivals in LA-LB peaked in September, at a monthly average of 6 per day, up from 5.2 in August. Average daily arrivals then fell to 5.6 per day in October and 5.4 in November to date.

  

  Despite the pullback in arrivals, the average time it has taken for a container ship to get from waiting offshore (at anchorage or loitering) to a berth at the Port of Los Angeles has spiked 133% between Sept. 1 and Thursday, to 18.4 days.

  An all-time high of 86 container ships were waiting offshore of Los Angeles and Long Beach on Tuesday, according to the Marine Exchange. In November to date, an average of 78.7 containers ships per day have been stuck offshore, up 37% from the monthly average of 57.4 ships in September, despite a 10% decrease in the monthly average of arriving container ships in November to date versus September.

  

  Decrease in outbound empty containers

  During a public hearing on Oct. 29, Matt Schrap, CEO of the Harbor Trucking Association, argued that the biggest source of Los Angeles/Long Beach congestion is not import containers that dwell too long, but rather, empty outbound containers that dwell too long. “Empties are the issue here,” he said.

  

  To reduce port gridlock, outbound empty volumes need to increase, but in Los Angeles, they are decreasing. On Thursday, the port reported that 337,106 TEUs of empties were exported last month, down from 358,581 TEUs in September and 364,212 TEUs in August.

  The situation with empties piling up at the terminals has gotten even worse in November, Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka confirmed on Tuesday’s call. “We’ve got about 65,000 empty container units sitting on the docks right now,” he said. “That’s up from 55,000 just a couple of Fridays ago.”

  Seroka is encouraging liner companies to bring in “sweepers,” ships that are deployed to return empties. “We’ve seen six sweeper ships so far pick up a little more than 17,500 TEUs of empties and there are another two on their way that can probably pick up another 2,500 TEUs, but we’ve got to do a lot more than that.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 17:30

• Smash-And-Grab Flashmobs Target Louis Vuitton Stores 
  Smash-And-Grab Flashmobs Target Louis Vuitton Stores 

  The effects of allowing chaos to prevail in Democrat-controlled US cities will destroy local commerce as businesses flee to safer areas. San Francisco officials have disregarded law and order with the passing of Proposition 47, which lowered penalties for thefts under $950 has sparked dramatic increases in shoplifting.

  By now, readers are well familiar with nearly two dozen Walgreens stores in San Francisco that have closed up shop due to the high rate of thefts (read: here & here).

  Ahead of the holiday shopping season, flashmobs are stepping up their game and targeting ultra-luxury retailers. On Friday night, videos surfaced on social media showing folks breaking through the front entrance of a Louis Vuitton store in San Francisco’s Union Square and making off with tens of thousands of dollars in purses and handbags. 

  Footage of Louis Vuitton in Union Square of San Francisco getting emptied. Look at how chill they are.

  I could’ve been physically able to do this. Call me next time! pic.twitter.com/8maf4x6PPy

  — Jenny, Girl from 4th 🌍, 鄰白廢物 🦍 (@JennyChachan) November 20, 2021

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  Louis Vuitton San Francisco, Union square got cleared out!! pic.twitter.com/7Sz6rlRo8n

  — Da Juan (@CARLITOSGUEY) November 20, 2021

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  The price range of a Louis Vuitton bag is from around $1,100 to about $6,000 – some bags can exceed more than $20,000. So it appears some thieves made off with goods above the $950 limit. 

  The Louis Vuitton in San Francisco union square just got emptied out 😳 pic.twitter.com/Imi6qbL0i1

  — Yealenne (@Yealenne) November 20, 2021

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  San Francisco Police Department officers arrived at the scene and arrested multiple suspects, according to local news ABC7 News. 

  “Officers arrived on scene to a retail store in Union Square where they observed several suspects involved in criminal acts. Officers have arrested multiple suspects,” police said in a written statement.

  SFPD said the Louis Vuitton store wasn’t the only one to get hit. Officers are “continuing to respond to other retail establishments, where reports of vandalism are occurring.” 

  In a separate incident last week, a flashmob of 14 targeted a Louis Vuitton store in Chicago. Police said the group made off with over $100k worth of merchandise in a matter of minutes. 

  WANTED: At least 14 suspects conduct ‘grab & run’ at Louis Vuitton store in Oak Brook Center Mall near Chicago; Police estimate $100,000 worth of merchandise was stolen – WGN pic.twitter.com/mEaVnCA7x8

  — Breaking911 (@Breaking911) November 18, 2021

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  Liberal cities that have relaxed laws on petty crimes and or defunded the police are stuck in a dangerous cycle of lawlessness that will be another big backlash for Democrats during the 2022 midterm elections. 

  When will the Biden administration pay people, not to flashmob stores?

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 17:00

• Welcome To The 'New Normal': This Is Going To Be A Holiday Season That None Of Us Will Ever Forget
  Welcome To The ‘New Normal’: This Is Going To Be A Holiday Season That None Of Us Will Ever Forget

  Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

  We seem to have entered a nightmare that does not appear to have an ending.  Earlier this year, many of the “experts” assured us that the U.S. economy would be “booming” by the end of 2021, but that didn’t turn out to be true at all.  Instead, we are dealing with widespread shortages, the worst inflation since the 1970s, and the most epic supply chain crisis in the history of the United States.  So this year, we are all going to have a “new normal” holiday season.  The upcoming holidays may not be quite what you have become accustomed to, but the elite are still trying to put a positive spin on things.

  

  For example, CNN is encouraging us to look on the bright side by assuring us that we “won’t have to cancel Thanksgiving” even though store shelves are increasingly bare…

  If you’ve been noticing emptier shelves when shopping for Thanksgiving, you’re not alone. But you won’t have to cancel Thanksgiving.

  The shortages of 2020 were supposed to be long gone by now, but instead the shortages of 2021 are far worse.  If you doubt this, just check out these availability numbers for some of our most important Thanksgiving staples…

  During that first week of November, whole bird frozen, fixed-weight turkeys were in stock at a rate of 64% on average across national retailers, IRI found. This time last year, that figure was around 86%. IRI data didn’t include seasonal fresh turkey. Last week, many Americans who were buying turkey early were buying frozen birds.

  Availability of packaged pie was roughly 68% that week, compared to 78% in 2020. Liquid gravy, with an in-stock rate of 73%, is down about 12 percentage points compared to last year. Cranberry sauce, with 79% availability, is down from 89% in that same period.

  I still remember the “good old days” when every store had turkeys and pies.

  Will we ever see such days again?

  There is a shortage of Christmas trees too.  It is being reported that the U.S. is now facing a significant shortage of both real and fake Christmas trees…

  Anyone planning on purchasing a Christmas tree this year should act fast, according to experts.

  Extreme weather and supply chain issues caused by the ongoing pandemic have led to shortages in both real and faux trees, according to the American Christmas Tree Association.

  A shortage of fake Christmas trees?

  Oh the humanity!

  How will we possibly survive?

  In addition to a lack of trees, CBS News is telling us that a number of other things will also be in very short supply over the next couple of months…

  -Clothing and accessories

  -Apple iPhone 13

  -Sportswear

  -L.O.L. Surprise! toys

  -Alcohol

  -Jewelry

  -PS5 and Xbox gaming consoles

  -Christmas lights

  Of course these shortages shouldn’t really surprise anyone, because it seems like there are shortages of just about everything these days.

  For instance, the shortage of garage doors has become so severe that builders in Sacramento are now being permitted to board up the garages of newly built homes…

  The city of Sacramento will now allow garages to be boarded up in new homes, if the garage doors are not delivered in time.

  Its a response to the shortage of garage doors caused by rampant supply chain problems.

  Sadly, a lot of other things will be getting boarded up in the months ahead as our economy continues to crumble.

  A little over a year ago, Joe Biden promised voters that prices would go down and our standard of living would go up if he won the election.

  Apparently he must have been campaigning in “Bizarro World” at the time, because what we have actually gotten has been the exact opposite.

  And things aren’t going to be getting better any time soon.

  At this point, even Goldman Sachs is publicly admitting that inflation “will get worse this winter”…

  “The current inflation surge will get worse this winter before it gets better,” Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research warns clients in a “2022 U.S. Economic Outlook.”

  This is the weirdest economy that I have ever seen in the entire time that I have been writing, and the American people are becoming increasingly restless.

  In fact, the latest ABC News-Washington Post poll found that 70 percent of all Americans now rate the economy negatively.

  So there is certainly a lot of bad news out there right now.

  But I am going to end this article with some good news.

  We just learned that implementation and enforcement of the OSHA mandate has been officially suspended.  The following comes from the official OSHA website…

  On November 12, 2021, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit granted a motion to stay OSHA’s COVID-19 Vaccination and Testing Emergency Temporary Standard, published on November 5, 2021 (86 Fed. Reg. 61402) (“ETS”). The court ordered that OSHA “take no steps to implement or enforce” the ETS “until further court order.” While OSHA remains confident in its authority to protect workers in emergencies, OSHA has suspended activities related to the implementation and enforcement of the ETS pending future developments in the litigation.

  As litigation proceeds, things could still change.

  But for now, this deeply insidious unconstitutional mandate has officially been put on hold.

  And that is something that all of us should be truly thankful for, because the OSHA mandate could have forced millions of hard working Americans out of their jobs early next year.

  So despite the widespread shortages we are witnessing, the painful inflation we are enduring and the supply chain problems that never seem to end, we have a great deal to be thankful for this Thanksgiving.

  At least for now, millions of jobs have been saved, and the U.S. economy has avoided an absolutely devastating blow.

  *  *  *

  It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 16:30

• Rand Paul Leads Push To Block Biden's $650 Million Arms Transfer To Saudis
  Rand Paul Leads Push To Block Biden’s $650 Million Arms Transfer To Saudis

  The Saudi coalition war against Houthi rebels in Yemen has witnessed an uptick in intensity this past week and month, with the Houthis on Saturday saying they’ve launched several missile attacks on Saudi bases and oil refineries in the kingdom’s south. 

  The timing is interesting given the Biden White House’s recently announced plans to transfer at least $650 more in weaponry to Riyadh, despite prior Biden pledges to help end the war in Yemen. Specifically the proposed sale involves what’s being dubiously dubbed “defensive” air-to-air missiles or AMRAAMs, as well as 596 LAU-128 missile rail launchers (MRLs).

  This week, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has been leading the charge seeking to kill the large missile sale to the Saudis. His office told the foreign policy D.C.-based think tanks Responsible Statecraft that “A message needs to be sent to Saudi Arabia that we don’t approve of their war in Yemen.”

  

  “By participating in this sale, we would not only be rewarding reprehensible behavior but also exacerbating a humanitarian crisis in Yemen,” Sen. Paul said. To be successful in stopping the sale he’ll have to get Democrats on board. 

  On Thursday he was joined by Bernie Sanders (D-VT) and Mike Lee (R-UT) in introducing a resolution to block the transfer, which argues that Saudi war crimes in Yemen prevent the US from legally doing so. Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) had already days prior introduced a similar resolution, “It is simply unconscionable to sell weapons to Saudi Arabia while they continue to slaughter innocent people and starve millions in Yemen, kill and torture dissidents, and support modern-day slavery,” she had said.

  A report by Responsible Statecraft noted that the Congressional and legal debate will likely hinge on whether the weapons are indeed “defensive” or “offensive” – with the latter being what Paul and others have emphasized: 

  Other comments speak to what could be the sticking point for many others — the difference between “offensive” and “defensive” weapons. At the beginning of his term, President Biden pledged to end all assistance to Riyadh for its “offensive” operations in Yemen. In the months since, analysts have scratched their heads over what that really means and whether the administration would find loopholes through which to drive new arms sales to Saudi Arabia anyway (there is one, approved by the Trump administration, still on hold).

  What’s been described as the “forgotten war” in Yemen has raged since 2015, with for much of that period the Pentagon providing direct assistance to Saudi-UAE coalition airstrikes against Yemeni Houthi rebels backed by Iran.

  Biden’s $500m Saudi deal contradicts Biden’s promises on ‘offensive’ weapons used in Yemen war, critics say https://t.co/7felTjmlt3

  — Jon Rainwater (@jonrainwater) October 28, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Prior US involvement in the Saudi-waged war grew increasingly controversial, given the high civilian death toll – amid a total estimated death toll of over 130,000 Yemenis killed.

  Though it does appear that over the last two years the Pentagon has moved away from active or direct involvement in executing airstrikes, the US has still provided the Saudi-UAE coalition with the bulk of the military equipment (and training). Sen. Paul’s resolution is seeking to shut down the US-Saudi war machine in Yemen entirely – however, hawks say that such a move will only strengthen Iran, given Tehran’s covert support to the Shia Houthis.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 16:00

• Jim Grant: "The Fed Reminds Me Of A Speculator On The Wrong Side Of The Market"
  Jim Grant: “The Fed Reminds Me Of A Speculator On The Wrong Side Of The Market”

  Authored by Christoph Gisiger via TheMarket.ch,

  Jim Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, warns of the rampant speculation in the stock market. He worries that the central banks are underestimating the threat of persistently high inflation and explains why gold has a bright future.

  

  The financial markets are «high». In the U.S., the S&P 500 is up for seven straight days, closing on another record at the end of last week. Particularly in demand are red-hot stocks like Tesla and Nvidia with fantastically rich valuations. Together, the two companies have gained around $600 billion in market value in the past three weeks alone.

  For Jim Grant, this is an environment that calls for increased caution. According to the editor of the iconic investment bulletin «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», investors have to beware of an explosive cocktail combining exceptionally easy monetary policy, a pronounced appetite for speculation, and the high degree of leverage. He also thinks that central banks are underestimating the risk of persistent inflation.

  «The Fed reminds me of a speculator who is on the wrong side of the market», says Mr. Grant.

  The fact that the Federal Reserve is now beginning to taper its bond purchases makes little difference in his view.

  «It’s like pouring a little less gasoline on the fire,» he thinks.

  In this in-depth interview with The Market/NZZ, which has been edited and condensed for clarity, the outspoken market observer and contrarian investor compares today’s environment with the second half of the 1960s and explains why he expects persistently high inflation rates. He explains what this means for the dollar as well as for gold, and where the best investment opportunities are with respect to the challenge of global warming.

  Mr. Grant, what does the financial world look like from your perspective in late fall 2021?

  It feels like the only days the stock market doesn’t make new highs is Saturday and Sunday when it’s not open. So certainly, there is never a dull moment. Things are very different, they are singular: We have the lowest interest rates in about 4000 years, or perhaps 3990 years because they have recently gone up a bit. But these are still some of the lowest interest rates on record. At the same time, we have some of the highest equity valuations with perhaps the exception of 1999 and 2000. And, we have one of the most speculative Zeitgeists on record. It is a time of disinhibition, of rampant, riotous speculation and of all the accompanying thrills and chills.

  Few people know the history of financial markets as well as you do. What parallels would you draw to the current environment from the past?

  There are certainly some things that resemble it. For instance, the late 1960s anticipated some of this. It was a time of rising CPI inflation and a great boom in new issues and over the counter stocks. During that era, a writer who went by the pen name «Adam Smith» wrote popular books about Wall Street, including «The Money Game». He said what you have to do is to go out and hire some very young people to run your portfolios for you because only they understand what’s happening. I think of this in connection with the novelties of today: You want to go out and hire people in the age of perhaps 21 or 22 and give them each a million dollars as they go out and speculate without any pretense of security analysis. They just go out and buy all of the NFTs and cryptos that are going up.

  Are there also specific differences from previous speculative bubbles?

  I think today’s Zeitgeist is unique in the intensity of the speculation and in the amount of dollars, or Swiss Francs, British Pounds or Euros involved. And, it is perhaps unprecedented in the leverage applied to these speculations. But it is not unique in the sense that humanity, the human race in one great aggregate in its past and present, has lived through these episodes before. We have lived through them in the tulip mania of course, and the great speculation of the early 18th Century with the Mississippi Company and the likes, and the railroad bubble after that. Speculative episodes aren’t anything but unprecedented. So let me re-emphasize: What is unique today is the intensity, the amount of money, the amount of leverage and the monetary backdrop. All of these things are unique.

  Where do you observe the biggest excesses when it comes to leverage?

  I’m thinking of corporate leverage in particular. Just to pick one example, you can observe it in the decline in the quality of the debt as witnessed by the deterioration of the covenants; the fine print in the section of a bond indenture which limits the options or choices a corporate borrower can make with respect to adding new debt or distributing new cash. Today, the covenants are much weaker, and the ratio of debt to cash flow is much higher than it was even in 2007-08.

  We know what happened next: The credit crisis almost caused a meltdown of the financial system. Nevertheless, today even long-term unprofitable companies are generously financed by investors like SoftBank with private equity and venture capital money.

  Certainly, SoftBank is right up there as an exemplar or an avatar of the current age. It takes this place with Tesla, China Evergrande and with other companies. The way they operate to enhance themselves and the goals they have set for themselves exemplify a time of free and easy lending and borrowing as well as of flyaway prices and of seemingly limitless valuations.

  At the same time, wild trading in short-term stock options is taking place. Is the stock price of companies like Tesla being manipulated?

  I haven’t made any study between the connection of option trading activity and stock prices, so I have to decline to comment on that. But this is a time of unusually, if not uniquely easy financial conditions, and a time of conditioned expectations by repeated interventions of the Federal Reserve to contain any weakness in share prices and bond prices. As a general rule, in such a setting you would expect that people would be out over their skis.

  At the moment, the most important question is whether the rise in inflation will be persistent or transitory. What do you think?

  I’m in the persistent camp, rather than the transitory camp. But we’re all guessing, and it becomes ill for anyone to dogmatize or to insist that she or he knows the future. Especially, since we collectively have been so surprised by events like the pandemic. So it’s not as if anyone has a clear line of the future. But what’s so striking about the current alignment of the financial stars is that the bond market – either it’s foresight, hindsight or just faith – is choosing to look beyond today’s inflation problems.

  What do you mean by that?

  In the United States, the ten-year Treasury note is yielding more or less 1.5%, despite the measured rate of inflation being currently in excess of 5% year-over-year. And the increase in producer prices is even greater. So the bond market, like the Fed, is making a big bet on this notion of a transitory inflation that is all about the shortage of goods and services, rather than the excess of purchasing power.

  Why do you think the Fed’s assessment of a transitory inflation could prove to be wrong?

  Well, nothing is permanent in our transitory lives. But my hunch from examining current data and from recalling past instances of serious inflation is that this very well could be persistent. By that, I mean lingering well beyond the first few months of 2022, perhaps going on for a year, or two or three. Interestingly, there has only been one prior serious episode of a piece-time inflation. Every other inflation in U.S. up until the one that began in 1965, was a phenomenon of war or the aftermath of war.

  How did inflation come about at that time?

  The inflation that began in the Sixties crept in on little cat’s feet, to borrow from the poem «Fog» by Carl Sandburg. First, it was 3%, then 4%, and it didn’t seem too bad. But by late 1967, the then Chairman of the Fed, William McChesney Martin, said that it was too late: The horse of inflation was out of the barn. Today, people talk about the inflation in the Seventies, but we should not forget that it began in the mid-Sixties in a seemingly harmless way. Like today, many people said at that time that a little inflation is desirable because it lubricates the wheels of commerce and it makes people optimistic about the future because their nominal wages are going up. So the inflation came upon the world very gently and gradually, but before you knew it, it became entrenched.

  Where do you see signs of similar developments today?

  For instance, take a look at what’s happening at John Deere & Co. They are in the first major strike since 1986, and the Union membership voted down a wage package that looked like a rise of 10%. So we can’t predict the future, but we can observe how investors are setting the odds on the future – and from what I can tell, investors are betting on transitory inflation. They are betting that the central banks are in control, and that today’s low interest rates will prove persistent and that everything is more or less fine. That’s the consensus as one reads it in the marketplace. But I think that it is not a certainty at all, and one is advised to take out insurance on this big bet being dead wrong.

  What else points to permanently high inflation rates?

  There is a general move in Corporate America, and perhaps business people elsewhere to build in a margin of safety in the supply chains and in manufacturing processes. The current state of the world’s supply chains reminds somewhat of the valuations of the world’s securities: There is no margin of safety in the financial market place, and there has been very little margin of safety in the construction of supply chains.

  And what does that have to do with inflation?

  That’s one reason to expect that we are embarked on an inflation that may be a little bit stickier and longer lived than the authorities would wish or expect: There is a movement to so-called onshore manufacturing, bringing activity away from the seemingly well protected low-cost Asian centers from where seamless transportation could deliver parts and finished goods reliably and cheaply in the past. It’s a move away from that to bring things back to higher-wage areas. And, as I see it, people are at a much faster pace than in the 1960s reforming their expectations and adapting to what may prove to be a longer duration problem.

  Then again, at the FOMC meeting last week the Federal Reserve reiterated that it does not expect permanently high inflation.

  That to me is another sign that this is a bigger problem than they admit. The Fed reminds me of a speculator or an investor who is on the wrong side of the market. But even though the market goes into the unexpected and unauthorized direction and this speculator is suffering, he will not sell if he’s long, or not cover if he’s short. Basically, the Fed is saying: No, we’re right! The markets are wrong, just be patient.

  For the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic, the Fed is now reducing its securities purchases somewhat. By next summer, the stimulus program should be completely wound down. Isn’t that a step in the right direction?

  The tapering is just a way of the Fed saying «we are not tightening; we are loosening at a slower rate.» History will make of it what it will, that the Fed met this inflation by buying $120 billion of bonds and mortgage-backed securities per month. And then, history will scratch its head to figure why the Fed has chosen to meet that inflation after six or nine months – however you want to date it – by continuing to buy a lot of securities and turning those securities into dollars. It’s like pouring just a little less gasoline on the fire.

  Yet, despite the unprecedented stimulus measures and the huge increase in government debt, the dollar has been surprisingly robust this year.

  But the competition isn’t much in the world of paper currencies. In a world of vanishingly tiny rates, I guess many people observe that American interest rates are relatively robust. Still, one always has to take the market’s judgment with respect and difference. After all, it is the market speaking. Still, I wonder if the market has taken the full measure of the weakness of the current Biden administration and of the geopolitical stirrings coming from China and the particular risk to Taiwan. That’s why the dollar might be at risk for geopolitical nuisance as well as for reasons having to do with American inflation.

  Intuitively, however, one would think that the dollar would trend firmer in the event of an escalation in the Asia-Pacific region. Don’t investors usually take refuge in safe haven assets like the dollar in times of crisis?

  It could be. It worked in March of 2020, interestingly enough. But it wasn’t the way it worked in the 1970s. So a great deal depends upon the world’s perception of the United States’ geopolitical strength. And a great deal depends upon the course of American interest rates. It depends for example on whether the Fed is prepared to carry through on its now very preliminary program of being a little bit less easy. But what happens if the market, instead of continuing to go up, reverses course? The Fed might panic, as it has panicked in recent years. So if you have a fall in stock prices, the Fed could loosen its policy again – and that wouldn’t be so hot for the dollar.

  How can investors best position themselves in this environment?

  Well, let’s take a quick look again on the lay of the land: Stocks are near all-time high valuations, interest rates near all-time lows, inflation is percolating, leverage high, and the Federal Reserve still in partial denial. People are reaching for yield at acrobatic levels. Figuratively speaking, they climb on steep ladders, grasping for returns in the hopes of generating some income to meet the actuarial demand of pension plans or University endowments. This is a setup of great risk and oddly enough of a widespread denial that it is risky.

  What does that mean for investors?

  I think this juxtaposition of objectively great financial risk on one hand, and the collective attitude of madcap indifference to that risk on the other hand spells trouble.

  Now, people can say to me:

  «That’s all well and good, except you have been saying that for a long time, in fact seemingly forever, and yet things go up.»

  My answer to that is: Yes, correct. All that’s true and I don’t know when things go south. So at «Grant’s», we try to present ideas that have a margin of safety and that can offer people a chance to realize good returns even in the midst of the aforementioned troubles and risks.

  What’s an example for such an investment?

  «Grant’s» had an investment conference a few weeks ago, and I would suggest that people take a page from Will Thomson, one of the speakers. His point was that when you’re serious about the climate you shouldn’t pay heed to inherently backward-looking ESG scores. In other words: You should not be buying these ESG funds that own nothing except Apple, Facebook and other FAANG names. You’re not helping the world by doing that. Instead, you are helping the world when you invest in companies that aren’t inherently «green», but are becoming «green».

  What kind of companies are we talking about here?

  Will made this point very well. As an example of constructive greenifying, he identified RWE, which once was Europe’s largest coal-powered utility and now is one of its top producers of carbon-free electricity. He also presented a selection of companies that make the component materials for solar panels and wind farms. For instance, he thinks Siemens Energy is a premier play on the burgeoning growth in turbines, substations, hydrogen electrolyzers and other essential energy-infrastructure items.

  It’s also no secret that you are a passionate fan of gold. What’s your take on the precious metal at the current time?

  I love it with the same intensity that I am frustrated by it, which is considerable. That is a rather poetic expression of my opinion. So let me get you a more down to earth answer: Gold is unusual in that it is kind of outside this speculative whirlwind. Gold mining stocks are perhaps at all-time cheap levels with respect to the S&P 500. Whether it’s yield you’re talking about, or free cash flow, or price to earnings, or profit margins: Gold mining shares are perhaps as cheap as they have ever been against the broad market. So gold is a little bit of an island of indifference in a boiling sea of gambling and speculation.

  When will gold shine again?

  Gold is not what cryptos are, it’s not what NFTs are, it’s not what Tesla is. It is outside of a raging speculation and I think it will come into its own raging speculation when this great speculative episode, correctly called the Everything Bubble, bursts. But it’s not going to attract much interest as long as stocks are making daily new highs. So count me still bullish, but also very frustrated.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 15:30

• "No Turning Point Yet" – Soaring Food Inflation To Continue Into 2022: Commodity Expert
  “No Turning Point Yet” – Soaring Food Inflation To Continue Into 2022: Commodity Expert

  Soaring food inflation has still more room to run and will continue well into 2022, according to Judy Ganes, the president of J. Ganes Consulting. 

  Ganes was interviewed on Bloomberg Television Friday and said rising food prices should continue into the middle of next year. 

  “We’re not seeing a turning point just yet, we’ll probably see it, my guess is the middle of next year. There’s a point where high prices are the best cure for high prices, there’s a point where its going to have to resolve itself,” she said. 

  She pointed out rising prices were due to a combination of factors, such as caps on migration, red hot labor market, labor shortages, adverse weather conditions, snarled supply, higher fertilizer prices, and soaring transportation costs.

  Ganes said the end to several major droughts and increased rainfall in major producing areas means global food production in 2023-24 will be “much improved.” 

  For instance, she pointed out that farmers worldwide are experiencing higher costs due to labor shortages and expensive fertilizer. “In Brazil, labor rates have to match what the inflation rate is, and if inflation is at 10%, then wages go up 10%, and that hits straight through the supply chain,” she said. 

  Brazil is a top ag country, producing everything from citrus to coffee to beef. Much of the ag goods are transported around the world, especially to the US. 

  Ganes’ view that food inflation is persistent comes one day after Cargill CEO David MacLennan told Bloomberg he changed his mind about “transitory” inflation and now believes it will be more persistent with higher food prices in 2022. 

  “I thought inflation in ags and food was transitory. I feel less so now because of continued shortages in labor markets,” MacLennan said during an interview at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore. “That’s one of the inputs to the supply chain that we’re watching most carefully.” 

  The latest data from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index shows that October prices climbed to a new decade high, mainly due to soaring vegetable oils and cereals. 

  

  Compound rising food prices with higher energy, shelter, and vehicle cost, working poor Americans have seen their real wages turn negative this year. Core CPI in October spiked to its highest since August 1991…

  

  John Maynard Keynes once said: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?” And as the facts prove today, inflation is not as “transitory” as the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve want everyone to believe. They’ve doubled down on the narrative that will likely prove to become a dangerous bet ahead of the 2022 midterms, where people might vote with their depleted wallets. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 15:00

• Full Employment? Ask Young Workers
  Full Employment? Ask Young Workers

  By Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research

  The $64 question for the US labor market is how close are we to full employment in a post-pandemic world? One way we can assess this topic is by looking at the current employment status of younger Americans. This cohort was disproportionately hurt after the Financial Crisis, particularly when it came to underemployment. It took a hot labor market and years of economic growth to incorporate them into the labor force and into positions that matched their skill levels. Did the Pandemic Recession cause the same problem all over again, or are we in a better spot now?

  #1: Here’s how young workers with and without a college degree are faring relative to prior cycles using data from the New York Fed (rates calculated as a 12-month moving average back to 1990):

  • The unemployment rate for recent college graduates (aged 22 to 27) with a bachelor’s degree or higher fell to 5.4 percent in September 2021 (latest available data) from a high of 13.3 pct in June 2020 during the pandemic. The lows of the last 3 economic cycles were 3.5 pct (November 2019), 3.0 pct (May 2007) and 3.7 pct (November 2000). Average: 3.4 pct, or 2 percentage points below the current rate.

  • The unemployment rate for all college grads (aged 22 to 65) was 2.9 pct as of September versus a high of 8.0 pct in June 2020. The lows of the last 3 cycles were 2.0 pct (January 2020), 2.0 pct (March 2007) and 1.7 pct (December 2000). Average: 1.9 pct, down 1 percentage point from the current rate.

  • The unemployment rate of young workers without a bachelor’s degree (aged 22 to 27) was 8.8 pct in September 2021 versus a high of 21.5 pct in June 2020. The lows of the last 3 cycles were 5.8 pct (June 2019), 7.4 pct (May 2007) and 6.0 pct (October 2000). Average: 6.4 pct, or down 2.4 percentage points from the current rate

  

  Takeaway: each cohort’s unemployment rate has improved much more quickly than after the Great Recession. Young workers without higher education have the furthest to go to reach their lowest average unemployment rate of the last 3 cycles, followed by recent college grads and all college grads. Young workers without a college degree always take the longest to get pulled back into the labor force after recession given that doing so requires an especially strong economy.

  #2: Underemployment (“the share of graduates working in jobs that typically do not require a college degree”):

  • The underemployment rate of all college grads was 33.0 pct as of September. The lows of the prior 3 economic cycles were: 33.4 pct (December 2019), 33.2 pct (August 2008) and 31.4 pct (June 2000). Average: 32.7 pct

  • The underemployment rate of recent college grads was 41.0 pct in September 2021. The lows of the past 3 cycles were: 40.2 pct (September 2018), 40.6 pct (January 2008) and 36.6 pct (April 2001). Average: 39.1 pct.

  

  Takeaway: the underemployment rates of college grads and recent college grads are much lower than the last recovery. Both are currently just above their lowest average underemployment rates of the last three cycles. By contrast, they took much longer to improve after the Dot Com Bubble and Financial Crisis, particularly in the case of recent college grads.

  Here are our three takeaways from this data:

  1. Unemployment among recent college grads and younger workers without a college degree continues to fall at a brisk clip, but they are not yet at the point of full employment as compared to the prior three cycles. The unemployment rate for recent college grads is currently around levels reached in 2014/early 2015 after the Financial Crisis, and 2016 in the case of younger workers without a degree. Again, much better than the last cycle, but still room for improvement relative to three decades of history. While that likely means overall full employment is still a way off, it does give employers a couple of pools of talent from which to hire amid labor shortages and near-record high levels of job openings. Whether that helps the US labor market bridge the gap of still 4.2 million jobs missing since before the pandemic will come down to two considerations: 1) both recent grads and younger workers without higher education lack experience, so employers will need to be willing to invest in training, and 2) employers may need to loosen their job requirements of having a college degree.

  2. Recent grads are much less likely to be underemployed than after the Financial Crisis, which yields two major positives on the consumer spending front: 1) adequate employment relative to young workers’ higher education level should mean they have more discretionary income, and 2) they should be less delayed with purchasing a home, having kids and all the purchases that come with those life milestones. This should help US economic growth, and in turn, the pace of further hiring.

  3. A faster labor market recovery for young workers should help overall productivity. Many younger workers missed out on formative first real job experiences after the Great Recession, so the sooner they train now the more effective they will be for companies and the greater economy.

  Bottom line: while unemployment among younger workers still exceeds the best levels of prior cycles, its rapid progress shows the US economy is getting closer to full employment more quickly than initially anticipated. Additionally, this is nothing like the environment after the last crisis when young college educated workers had to take jobs that did not leverage their education. They are entering a labor market hungry for workers, affording them the ability to find suitable jobs and pay which should in turn provide a boost to both US economic growth and productivity for years to come.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 11/20/2021 – 14:30

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