Feb 22

Today’s News 22nd February 2022

  • The Burden Of Proof Is Always On The Ones Making The Claim (Even If It's About Russia)
    The Burden Of Proof Is Always On The Ones Making The Claim (Even If It’s About Russia)

    Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

    Well you’ll be shocked to learn that, while the Ukraine invasion we’ve been told for weeks was happening any day now still has not occurred, the US and UK have declared that Russia attacked Ukraine in an invisible and unverifiable way for which the evidence is secret.

    “The White House blamed Russia on Friday for this week’s cyberattacks targeting Ukraine’s defense ministry and major banks and warned of the potential for more significant disruptions in the days ahead,” AP reports.

    “Anne Neuberger, the Biden administration’s deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technologies, said the U.S. had rapidly linked Tuesday’s attacks to Russian military intelligence officers.”

    “Technical information analysis shows the GRU was almost certainly involved in disruptive DDoS attacks,” adds a statement from the UK Foreign Office.

    No evidence for this claim has been provided beyond the assertive tone with which American and British officials have uttered it, but that likely won’t stop arguments from western narrative managers that this “attack” justifies immediate economic sanctions.

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    You’ve probably also heard by now that President Biden announced at a press briefing that Vladimir Putin has made the decision to invade Ukraine and violently topple Kyiv “in the coming days,” citing only “intelligence”.

    “What reason do you believe he’s considering that option at all?” a reporter asked Biden after his speech.

    “We have a significant intelligence capability, thank you very much,” the president answered, and made his exit.

    As we were reminded earlier this month in an interesting exchange between State Department spinmeister Ned Price and AP’s Matt Lee, US officials firmly believe that simply placing assertions next to the word “intelligence” should be considered rock solid proof that those assertions are true, and the press are expected to play along with this.

    And indeed, a large percentage of the political/media class is responding to Biden’s unevidenced claim that Putin has decided to launch a full-scale ground invasion of Ukraine as though that invasion is actually happening.

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    There are also accusations of false flags amid the fighting in eastern Ukraine and numerous other claims about what Russia is doing as it prepares for this invasion it’s supposed to launch, and it’s all just being blindly accepted as objectively true in mainstream political discourse. Nowhere is it questioned. Nowhere is the fault of the US and NATO in creating these tensions between Russia and Ukraine ever reported, nor are the geostrategic benefits the US hegemon stands to reap from this standoff. Few even bother trying to articulate what Moscow would gain from invading Ukraine, except the occasional infantile “they hate us for our freedom”-style think piece about how Putin just can’t stand democracy.

    If online you question the veracity of any of these claims in light of the extensive history these institutions have of lying to us about just this sort of thing, it’s treated as a freakish and bizarre interjection that is at best misguided and at worst proof that you’re an agent of the Kremlin. I haven’t received so many notifications from people calling me a Russian operative since 2018, which to me is funny because everything I was saying about western Russia narratives in 2018 has since been completely vindicated.

    And I think it’s important while this all unfolds to take a moment to remind ourselves that the burden of proof is always on the party making the claim. This is a basic principle we all hold true in matters of logic and debate and in the legal system, and really anywhere that disputed claims are scrutinized, and it doesn’t magically stop being the case just because a claim is spoken in an assertive tone by powerful people about a country they don’t like. If you make a claim in an irrelevant time-wasting Twitter argument you’ll immediately be asked for proof that it’s true, but if the most powerful government in the world makes an incendiary claim of potentially world-shaping consequence we’re all just expected to accept it, even though that government has a proven track record of making false claims.

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    The onus is not on anyone else to prove that the US and UK governments are lying when they make these claims, the onus is on the US and UK governments to prove that they are telling the truth. At some point after Donald Trump’s election it became a mainstream liberal doctrine that you can say whatever you want about Russia no matter how outrageous and suffer no professional consequences if it proved completely false, and nobody’s really been pushing back on that. So many people built entire careers out of suggesting for years on end that the entire Trump family was going to be dragged out of the White House in chains for Kremlin collusion, and when this failed to prove true everyone just acted like it was fine and continued on with their careers.

    But it’s not fine. It’s not okay that this bizarre cold war hysteria environment has melted everyone’s brain over the last five years. It’s not okay that the most basic standards of logic and evidence have been flushed down the toilet. It’s not okay that we now have MI6 spooks and CIA mouthpieces openly acknowledging that the government is using the western press to wage an information war geared at undermining Russia when both the government and the press are supposed to be simply telling us the truth.

    I don’t know what’s going to happen with Ukraine. What I do know is that it would be good to drag the Overton window of acceptable debate kicking and screaming back to the point where the burden of proof needs to be met even, and especially, by the world’s most powerful people. And where, if that burden is not met, their claims are treated with all the disdain they deserve.

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 23:40

  • 30% Of People In India Believe COVID Is A Myth
    30% Of People In India Believe COVID Is A Myth

    If there’s one thing we’ve learned from the pandemic, it’s that everybody has a slightly different approach to how they deal with the challenges it has presented.

    Covid-19 has thrown up a lot of complex topics which both society and the individual have had to come to terms with and react to. However, as Statista’s Martin Armstrong points out, where these differences get away from the realm of “normal” and understandable, however, is when people completely reject the reality of the situation, saying that the coronavirus is a myth – created by “some powerful forces” – and that the virus does not exist.

    This is the wording used in a recent YouGov survey to gauge the extent to which populations believe this around the world.

    Infographic: Where People Believe Covid is a Myth | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Of the 24 countries surveyed, belief in the conspiracy theory was most widespread in India, where 30 percent of (urban) respondents professed to sharing this view on the pandemic.

    South Africa, Indonesia and Nigeria also stood out here, with 23, 20 and 19 percent, respectively.

    At the other end of the scale, belief was least common in Japan, Sweden, Great Britain and Denmark – here the results were between three and five percent.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 23:10

  • Fourth Turning 2022: Bad-Moon Rising, Part 4
    Fourth Turning 2022: Bad-Moon Rising, Part 4

    Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

    In Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 of this article I examined the power of propaganda and the use of fear to invoke a mass formation psychosis on millions of weak-minded victims of global elitist psychopaths weaponizing a flu as part of their plot to Reset the world as lords of a global fiefdom, with the lowly peasants owning nothing and being happy to be permitted to live. The trillions in debt created by central bankers and debased political hacks, play acting as wise all-knowing leaders, are also part of the plan to crash the global economy and further the aims of these globalist billionaires and their parasitic front men.

    The third segment of this unholy trinity has been the engineered civic decay spawned by the traitorous deeds of politicians, who have encouraged the invasion of over two million illegal freeloaders, aided domestic terrorists (BLM & Antifa) in burning and looting our cities for a year, facilitated the teaching of degeneracy to our children, and have pitted family against family, friend against friend, employer against employee, over a Big Pharma experimental therapy that doesn’t do anything but enrich those peddling it, injuring and killing millions, and tearing the last vestiges of our civil society to shreds.

    In this fourth and final installment I will try to anticipate what global disorder dynamics will come into play during the remainder of 2022 and beyond, impacting the level of violence and bloodshed before this Fourth Turning reaches its fateful climax. As Strauss and Howe warned 25 years ago, the risk of catastrophe would be high, and a positive outcome was far from guaranteed. We have entered the most dangerous phase of this Crisis, where decisions by dementia ridden puppet presidents, foreign dictators, central bankers, billionaire hedge fund managers, and billionaire software makers pretending to be medical experts, will determine the future course of history.

    “The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    “History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    When reading these foreboding words regarding the potential tragic outcomes for this Fourth Turning, it is easy to dismiss as ridiculous and nothing but fear porn. The reason younger generations reject the possibility of all-encompassing war is because the last Fourth Turning ended 77 years ago and most people who experienced the horror of World War II have died, extinguishing any direct knowledge of the conflict, initiating the cycle of war once more. Each Fourth Turning has its own dynamics, catalyzing events, and individuals which propel the crisis towards its convulsive climax.

    The U.S. hasn’t been in a major conflict since 1945, only military industrial complex created regional wars, designed to keep the hundreds of billions flowing to the defense industry and politicians in their pockets. War has been nothing but a racket for decades, but Fourth Turnings always plunge the nation into a chaotic life and death struggle, with a grand conflict to determine the future course of history. There are currently neocon chicken hawk warmongers in positions of power, along with bought journalistic whores pushing false narratives about Russia, who aren’t satisfied with peace, pushing for war. This cyclical extreme is destined to lead to war.

    “The ancients believed that each cyclical extreme, mirroring the hopes and fears of the other, helps generate the other. The night longs for the day, the day for night. In war, people yearn for relief from strife, leading to peace. In peace, people yearn to champion what they love, leading to war.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

    The global disorder sweeping the world is multi-faceted, but it is all interconnected and can be tracked back to Soros, Schwab, and their globalist billionaire cabal. Never ending war is good business in an empire of lies. When in doubt about the intentions of politicians, world leaders, mainstream media talking heads, and self-proclaimed military experts, always follow the money.

    As Smedley Butler proclaimed during the last Fourth Turning, war has always benefited the rich, while young men die on battlefields as cannon fodder. The CIA initiated regional Middle East conflicts, propelled by CNN, MSNBC, Fox, and the rest of the government-controlled media, have kept the hundreds of billions flowing to the military industrial complex for decades and coffins arriving at Dover airbase.

    “War is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives. A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of the people. Only a small ‘inside’ group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few, at the expense of the very many. Out of war a few people make huge fortunes.” – Smedley Butler

    The current drumbeat for war being disseminated by Biden, his handlers, congressional psychopaths on both sides of the aisle, the neocon media, and Soros bribing “experts” to support war against Russia, is the perfect example of the ruling class trying to engineer a war to add to their fortunes and distract from their vile machinations. George Soros acknowledged, in an interview with CNN, that he actively contributed to the overthrow of former Ukrainian President, and ally of Putin, Viktor Yanukovych in 2014.

    The CIA and Soros installed their puppet Poroshenko as the illegitimate president, prompting Mr. Putin to annex Crimea, as Obama and his effeminate Secretary of State blustered and did nothing. Meanwhile Biden and his family harvested millions, peddling his influence for financial gain.

    Soros’ foundation is most certainly funding the disinformation campaign about Putin invading Ukraine at any moment. While the current president of the Ukraine, NATO, and Putin have attempted to defuse the situation and assure the world an invasion is not imminent, the Biden administration and the neocons in Congress and the media continue to beat the drums of war and spew propaganda in an effort bolster the bottom lines of arms dealers and billionaires pulling the strings behind the curtain. The war pigs will always rapaciously feed at the bottomless trough of fiat slop provided by the Fed and feckless whore politicians.

    Most of the global disorder is purposely created by the ruling oligarchs, to keep billions flowing into their coffers, while their puppet central bankers keep their printing presses operating at hyper-speed generating the debt necessary to keep waging endless war. War might be a racket, but debt creation is the lifeblood of the racket, and the Fed is the racketeer. The captured corrupt politicians occupying D.C. at the behest of the monied interests who selected them to be “elected” by the clueless dupes thinking their vote mattered, sell their souls to the highest bidder.

    Transferring the tax dollars absconded from you at gunpoint (aka the tax code) into the pockets of arms peddler conglomerates can only be done with the acquiescence and succor of Powell and his electronic printing press. The never-ending creation of debt is the lifeblood of war and the root of the global disorder engulfing the world.

    The hyperbolic screeching from Biden, Blinken, their band of petulant pretender foreign affairs “professionals”, those in the pockets of the military industrial complex, the toadies in the corporate media, and neo-cons who have never met a war they didn’t want to wage, is pushing this country towards conflict with a nuclear power led by a serious man who will not be intimidated by amateurs.

    Despite the fact the Ukraine has no strategic interest to the United States, Biden’s handlers are having him threaten, bluster, and ratchet up the invective towards Russia and Putin, as if this is nothing more than a harmless game of Risk they played as kids. Their propaganda efforts are producing the desired effect, just as it has done during the two-year flu fear-fest. Even though there is absolutely no threat to our nation or security, almost three quarters of Americans think we will go to war in the next twelve months. That $770 billion defense budget needs to be spent somehow.

    While the Ukraine situation approaches the boiling point, the focus on China has been diverted, especially with their least watched Olympics in history winding down. China has been at war with U.S. for at least a decade, infiltrating our universities, buying influence in our medical, media, financial industries, positioning Manchurian candidates throughout our political system, controlling media messaging, stealing our military and technology secrets, and destroying our economy with their bio-weapon virus.

    This behind the curtain warfare has begun to blossom into traditional warfare, with the posturing and threats regarding Taiwan. China and Russia have been increasingly teaming up economically, financially, and militarily to create a buffer against U.S. global hegemony which has been unimpeded since 1946, the end of the last Fourth Turning. There is a distinct chance America’s crumbling empire of debt will not retain its world dominance when the climax of this crisis ensues over the next five to ten years.

    Global disorder encompasses more than just major global war between superpowers, with multiple scenarios involving Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India, Pakistan, and Iraq capable of igniting a broader conflict and driving oil prices into the stratosphere. The wars fought since the last Fourth Turning have been nothing more than skirmishes, despite the immense death, destruction, and financial cost of waging those wars.

    A winner takes all struggle to the death confrontation is what brings a Fourth Turning to its bitter end, with the victor taking the spoils and writing the history, while the vanquished is left in ruins. As we begin 2022 most people are oblivious to the potential level of violence and bloodshed likely over the next few years. Americans were just as oblivious in 1860 and then eighty years later in 1940. The level of anger towards tyrannical government leaders sweeping the globe will be channeled and directed for good or bad in the very near future.

    Fourth Turnings occur because human nature never changes. Those who rise to power are always driven by power, control, and wealth. Their egos are large, and they are driven by greed and seeking the accolades of others. Their hubris and influence seeking are often more powerful than their intellect or moral character.

    Mistakes in judgement or failure to recognize the intent of their enemies, often leads to disastrous consequences for their citizens. We are currently facing situations on multiple fronts, where having a senile puppet president puts the world in mortal danger. Biden’s calamitous domestic record after one year is leading his handlers to push for a foreign conflict to distract from their imploding domestic agenda and economy destined for recession before the end of the year.

    Most countries in the western world, along with China & Russia, also have economic problems created by politicians playing the roles assigned to them by Schwab and the globalist Davos billionaires. The cataclysmic actions taken by these spineless corrupt flunkies and feckless central bankers acting on behalf of the Wall Street cabal, have destroyed global economies, extinguished small business entrepreneurs, ignited raging inflation (devastating the finances of the poor and working class), ruined global supply chains, drove energy prices higher, and have insured a global recession within a year.

    What do politicians and dictators do when their economies are falling apart? They look for a foreign conflict in order to rally the ignorant masses around the flag. And then someone does something stupid and all hell breaks loose.  When hell breaks loose it’s not the politicians or central bankers who will die in battle, it’s our sons used as cannon fodder to feather the nests of globalist billionaires hiding in their secure penthouse suites or behind high walls with armed guards. Global tyrants in pissing matches are a major driver of global disorder, but when the tyrants start pissing on their own subjects, a new level of disorder is unleashed.

     

    The totalitarian measures being inflicted upon Canadian citizens exercising their freedom to peacefully protest illegal vaccine mandates should be a wake-up call for all Americans. Trudeau and his jackboots are trampling the rights of good people. He has pulled off his socialist mask to reveal himself to be a full-fledged communist dictator, wielding a truncheon against blue collar truck drivers, women, children, and using the full force of his despotically seized “emergency” powers to seize bank accounts and destroy the lives of people who are the backbone of the Canadian economy.

     

    This entire manufactured health “crisis” has been used by Schwab’s acolytes like Trudeau, Ardern, Macron, and the other WEF Global Young Leader graduates, to implement the Great Reset by destroying their countries in order to build back better, where they own it all and we own nothing.

    The western world has been socially engineered and propagandized into enemy camps, with those cherishing freedom, liberty, free speech, and the Bill of Rights at odds with those insisting on total government control, mandates, regulations, censorship, and the use of force to inflict their beliefs upon everyone.

    The divide in this country, Canada and across Europe has never been wider, with daily skirmishes across social media, at school board meetings, in workplaces, and increasingly in the streets, is threatening to breakout into full-fledged civil war, with the flames fanned on a daily basis by the treasonous scum in the corporate media spreading lies, misinformation, and malicious contempt for societal norms in order to create chaos, hatred and havoc.

    With those pulling the strings of society purposely trying to tear down institutions, invoke the insanity of woke prophets (profiteers), destroy the lives of those who dare stand up to their insane ideology, and using fear to control the masses, only a minority of freedom loving patriots stand in the way of our nation’s destruction.

    It seems clear to me the level of internal and external chaos on a global scale is approaching a crescendo and it will not dissipate before war breaks out within our borders and across the world. With global supply chains already broken, energy and food prices skyrocketing, and shortages of technology components, the fragility of our just in time supply system is in peril. The Canadian Freedom Convoy has inspired millions around the world to resist their authoritarian statist overlords.

    Truckers are the lifeblood of our economic system, and if they refuse to drive those trucks our society will self-destruct rapidly. Beating and imprisoning those who sustain your society is not a brilliant strategy, but that is what Trudeau, and his ilk are doing. When the hordes of starving peasants descend upon the gated estates of the ruling class, all of their theoretical build back better bullshit won’t do them a damn bit of good. They have provoked this conflict, but are they sure their police thugs and woke military recruits will have their back permanently?

    “The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power. Not wealth or luxury or long life or happiness: only power, pure power. We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means, it is an end. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?” ― George Orwell, 1984

    Trudeau, Biden, Macron, Johnson, and lesser tyrants like Newsom, Whitmer, Murphy, Lightfoot, and DeBlasio have used the plandemic as the means to seize power through illegal emergency power declarations and have no intention of relinquishing this ill-begotten authority unless forced to do so by the people they are suppressing and abusing. Schwab and the globalist billionaires he represents trained and indoctrinated most of the global leaders who are now attempting to implement a controlled demolition of western democratic societies and the market based financial systems which had given rise to increasing prosperity until the dawn of this century.

    When republics devolve into democracies the seeds of its destruction are planted and when free market capitalism mutates into a globalist scheme of corporate fascism, permanent enslavement or revolution are the only two options for the citizens. Blood will need to be shed before these petty tyrants are rightfully eliminated from power.

    At this point, the question remains as to how much bloodshed and whose blood will be spilled before this Fourth Turning reaches its historic culmination. The catalyst for this Fourth Turning was, and still is, the self-induced destruction of our financial system by evil men seeking ungodly material wealth on earth. Everything the ruling class has done since 2008 has been to prop up a bankrupt system in order to retain their wealth, power, and control.

    They have run out of runway and are about to crash the global economic system. It looks increasingly likely it will happen in 2022, as they have created an unsolvable financial dilemma, which insures a recession/depression and the extinguishment of trillions in faux wealth in the stock market and housing market.

    Their arrogance and egotistical belief in their own intellectual powers make them think they can pull off this controlled demolition unscathed, while retaining their positions of power through utilizing the levers of propaganda, police state thuggery, military might, surveillance state technology, and certainty the willfully ignorant masses will do as they are told. Of course, the best laid plans of tyrants don’t always pan out as expected.

    A global recession, stock market crash, and supply chain implosion will set off an uncontrollable chain reaction which will ignite the global conflagration and lead to civil and global war. We were warned, but most did not heed the portent to prepare. There will be no way to escape what is coming, but we must realize who stands on the side of good and who embodies the evil currently in control of our government, media, universities, military, medical and financial institutions.

    “The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

    It is easy to dismiss or ridicule the terms good and evil because there has been a concerted effort by the political class and their media mouthpieces to blur the distinction between the two, just as they have done by fostering the belief abnormal immoral behavior should be celebrated and promoted, while normal moral behavior should be scorned and ridiculed. The religious based concepts of good and evil are clear and concise, therefore they do not allow lackey politicians and the true ruling class of elites the leeway to lie, cheat and steal their way to power, control, and wealth. These terms have meaning and usefulness in assessing the character and integrity of those we associate with and those we elect to represent our interests.

    The last two years have not been a medical emergency, but a test of critical thinking skills and the ability to discern between liars, thieves, money whores, and the forces of evil versus truth tellers and those committed to freedom, liberty, and the forces of good.

    Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, one of the bravest truth-telling men of the 20th Century, understood the concepts of good and evil better than anyone, as he was exposed to the excruciating evilness of the Soviet Union and the communist henchmen who carried out Stalin’s evil doctrine of imprisonment and murder. Both good and evil reside in the human heart, and it is our free will which leads us towards the light or the darkness.

    Our world has become shrouded in darkness, with evil permeating from every fiber of our WEF indoctrinated leaders and the globalist elites (Schwab, Soros, Gates, Bezos, Zuckerberg, et.al.) running the world. The world is awash in nurtured falsehoods, perpetual disinformation, fake news, fear propaganda, and outright lies. It’s enough to drive a good person mad. We can not bow down to evil. Solzhenitsyn and Orwell saw communism for what it was – pure evil. We must cling to the truth at all costs, no matter the consequences, for our children and their children.

    “You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

    “Being in a minority, even in a minority of one, did not make you mad. There was truth and there was untruth, and if you clung to the truth even against the whole world, you were not mad.” ― George Orwell, 1984

    As I have laid out, the battle between good and evil has already commenced, with an uncertain outcome hanging in the balance. Human beings and their nature have not changed across the centuries. They are susceptible to emotions and miscalculations. With the level of global disorder at extremes, some world leader is going to make a mistake and initiate the next bloody chapter of this Crisis. That is a certainty. Each Fourth Turning has seen huge technological advancements which make killing and destruction far easier and lethal.

    If and when war comes, it will be less likely to be on a traditional battlefield and more likely to be waged by government sanctioned computer hackers paralyzing key infrastructure, the power grid, satellites, the internet, and your linkage to modern day niceties. There will be no Pickett’s Charge or D-Day Invasion. Starvation and freezing to death are more likely than glorious battlefield victories. It is doubtful any of us are truly prepared for the type of war which will be waged. And that’s if some reckless tyrant doesn’t use their nukes, commencing an Armageddon scenario.

    Strauss & Howe offered four sobering conclusions to our current Crisis, likely to play out over the next five to ten years. All the exertions of good people, following the path of righteous truth, should be focused on defeating the evil forces, allowing a new High to commence, leaving our children with a renewed republic and hope for the future. It’s all we can do.

    1. This Fourth Turning could mark the end of man. It could be an omnicidal Armageddon, destroying everything, leaving nothing. If mankind ever extinguishes itself, this will probably happen when its dominant civilization triggers a Fourth Turning that ends horribly. For this Fourth Turning to put an end to all this would require an extremely unlikely blend of social disaster, human malevolence, technological perfection, and bad luck.

    2. The Fourth Turning could mark the end of modernity. The Western saecular rhythm – which began in the mid-fifteenth century with the Renaissance – could come to an abrupt terminus. The seventh modern saeculum would be the last. This too could come from total war, terrible but not final. There could be a complete collapse of science, culture, politics, and society. Such a dire result would probably happen only when a dominant nation (like today’s America) lets a Fourth Turning ekpyrosis engulf the planet. But this outcome is well within the reach of foreseeable technology and malevolence.

    3. The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation. It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the word America has come to signify. The nation has endured for three saecula; Rome lasted twelve, the Soviet Union only one. Fourth Turnings are critical thresholds for national survival. Each of the last three American Crises produced moments of extreme danger: In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a thread in more than one battle. In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was regarded as the most lethal war in history. In World War II, the nation destroyed an enemy of democracy that for a time was winning; had the enemy won, America might have itself been destroyed. In all likelihood, the next Crisis will present the nation with a threat and a consequence on a similar scale.

    4. Or the Fourth Turning could simply mark the end of the Millennial Saeculum. Mankind, modernity, and America would all persevere. Afterward, there would be a new mood, a new High, and a new saeculum. America would be reborn. But, reborn, it would not be the same.

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 22:40

  • Banks Float Fewer Rate Hikes Due To Ukraine Crisis
    Banks Float Fewer Rate Hikes Due To Ukraine Crisis

    For the past month we have countered that amid predictions of “six or seven” rate hikes in 2022, and – most recently – as much as nine consecutive rate hikes as JPMorgan forecast last Friday, the Fed will be able to pull off at most a handful (see “Market Starts Pricing-In Rate-Cuts As Hot CPI Confirms Fed Policy Error Imminent“) before it is forced to relent as the market realizes the Fed is hiking right into a policy error.

    Curiously, it was none other than JPMorgan (no, it was another analyst there, not the one who called for 9 consecutive rate hikes) who late last week warned that the forward OIS curve is now the most inverted it has ever been, confirming that the forward looking rates market is already focusing on the rate cuts that will come after the current brief tightening cycle.

    In fact, it was just last week when we said that in a short 6 months, Wall Street consensus will turned dramatically, and some time in the late summer, strategist will be tripping over each other who can come up with the biggest number of rate cut forecasts for 2023 and onward, as the economy hits a brick wall.

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    Now, with the Ukraine situation in play and with oil surging and threatening to explode to levels that would promptly crash global economic growth (similar to what happened in the summer of 2008 when $150 coupled with the Lehman bankruptcy promptly sparked the Global Financial Crisis), others are also starting to admit that what comes next is not some exponential rate hiking spiral, but a Fed that returns to its grass roots of monetary stimulus, especially after the midterms when the GOP will take control of Congress making new fiscal stimulus impossible for years.

    In a late Monday note from SMBC Nikko Securities chief currency and foreign bond strategist, Makoto Noji, he wrotes that the U.S. rate market will gradually price in the possibility that a terminal rate for the Fed of 2% or lower will be sufficient to keep inflation in check, as “a deepening correction in stocks will lead to a higher savings rate for U.S. households, cooling consumption and damping down inflation.”

    As such, according to Noji, the Fed won’t have to be dovish to support stock prices, although the central bank is unlikely to avoid raising rates in March or to rethink a hike path beyond March (unless, of course, there is some unexpected market crash in the next 4 weeks). According to SMBC, long-term Treasury yields are likely fall moderately into summer, and indeed they have fallen sharply already, tumbling from over 2.1% last week to 1.85% as of this moment on military conflict fears… because the surest way to a global recession, and much more central bank stimulus, is an economic-shock inducing eruption in oil prices. In fact, just two weeks ago we suggested that if the Fed really wants to nuke inflation and spark an economic slowdown (or recssion), it should send oil to $200 first.

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    Noji is not the only one to suggest that the events in Ukraine will impact the Fed’s strategy: none other than JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic wrote last Monday that “while the risk of conflict in Ukraine is high, it should have limited impact on global equity markets and would likely prompt a dovish reassessment by CBs.“

    Because if there is anything that the Fed won’t hike into, it’s global war one would think…

    Meanwhile, the market is already responding and swap traders trimmed bets on future rate hikes by the Federal Reserve as escalating tensions over Ukraine hit risk assets. As shown below, overnight-indexed swaps signal a 19% chance of a 50bps hike in March, compared with a 56% probability seen a week ago. The odds have been steadily coming down given geopolitical risks and recent speeches from Fed officials downplaying that possibility.

    Still, OIS indicate the Fed will raise its policy rate by almost 150bps, or 6 rate hikes, by the end of this year, well below the 175bps last week.

    Should the conflict in Ukraine, and the US economic slowdown escalate further, watch as the number of rate hikes priced by the rates market at the end of 2022 shrinks with every passing day, until the tightening scare of January 2022 is a distant memory.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 22:10

  • 300 Cars Converge In Attempt To Take Over Virginia City: Police
    300 Cars Converge In Attempt To Take Over Virginia City: Police

    By Jack Phillips of The Epoch Times

    Police in Richmond, Virginia, said that 300 cars converged in an attempt to take over the city during the past weekend. Authorities said that the individuals involved wanted to block streets to carry out illegal activities.

    “Their entire point was to come to Richmond, specifically Richmond, to do ‘burnouts,’ ‘donuts,’ and other illegal activities on the streets of Richmond,” Richmond Police Chief Gerald Smith said at a news conference.

    Police said the cars gathered in Richmond at around 9 p.m. on Feb. 19 and stopped at several locations, posing a threat to public security by blocking roads and intersections as well as engaging in reckless driving.

    “What could have been a potentially deadly gathering of individuals fueled by large spectator crowds was prevented by RPD officers who issued 45 summons for various offenses,” Richmond Police Department spokesperson Tracy Walker said.

    “We watch social media quite a bit, monitoring for any illegal activities and things that can help us in the investigation, and we came across it, and we started to monitor it very closely,” Smith said.

    Multiple vehicles were seen doing “donuts” and “burnouts” in parking lots and other areas. The drivers dispersed within hours after officers issued the summonses for various offenses.

    “That’s very dangerous behavior: speeding. You’re talking about they are taking their life in their own hand, and not only their life, but an innocent pedestrian who may not know exactly what’s taking place,” Smith said.

    One person was arrested on a felony charge of eluding police, reckless driving, and having an illegal window tint, officials said. His vehicle was impounded.

    “There’s no other way to put it. This is foolish, and it’s not going to be tolerated in Richmond,” said Smith, adding that officers estimated that about 1,500 people were involved.

    Police didn’t provide other details about the incident.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 21:40

  • US Evacuates Ukraine Embassy Staff To Poland
    US Evacuates Ukraine Embassy Staff To Poland

    The US State Department has evacuated Ukraine embassy staff from Ukraine to Poland on Monday, amid fears that Russia will launch an attack on Kiev, Bloomberg reports. War fears escalated on Monday, after Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow would immediately recognize the breakaway Donbass republics of Donetsk (DPR) and Lugansk (LPR) as sovereign nations.

    The officials are expected to remain at a hotel just over the border with Poland, though they could return to Ukraine as soon as Tuesday if the State Department determines that the security situation has stabilized.

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    Secretary of State Anthony Blinken confirmed, saying that “for security reasons, Department of State personnel currently in Lviv will spend the night in Poland.  Our personnel will regularly return to continue their diplomatic work in Ukraine and provide emergency consular services.”

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    The move “of the small contingent of American diplomats still in Ukraine” comes one week after Washington relocated its embassy operations to Lviv from Kiev, citing a “dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces” near Ukraine’s borders. President Joe Biden’s administration has now ordered all remaining State Department employees in Ukraine to leave the country altogether, Bloomberg reporter Jennifer Jacobs said on Monday, citing unidentified sources.

    Embassy staffers may return to Ukraine tomorrow “if the Russian invasion doesn’t happen, I’m told,” Jacobs added. US officials earlier this month urged American citizens in Ukraine to leave the country, saying they would be allowed to cross into Poland by land without advanced approval from Warsaw.

    Embassy and consular activities will continue from Poland and the move is not intended to signal any shift in U.S. support for Ukraine, according to two of the U.S. officials. The U.S. alerted high-ranking officials in Ukraine before pulling out its embassy staff, and consulted with allies who also operate diplomatic facilities in the country, according to Bloomberg.

    Last week’s embassy evacuation from Kiev reportedly included destruction of the facility’s computer systems and communications gear for fear that the equipment could fall into the hands of Russian forces. Lviv is in western Ukraine, further away than Kiev from the country’s borders with Russia and Belarus.

    Several other countries have moved their embassies and issued travel alerts warning their citizens not to travel to Ukraine, following U.S. assessments that Russia could be planning to invade imminently.

    There is hope that the move will compel Americans who remain in the country to get out as quickly as possible, one of the officials said. The move underscores concern that Russian military operations in Ukraine may not discriminate between military and civilian targets

    Meanwhile, the Chinese embassy in Ukraine has told its citizens and Chinese companies to be careful of safety, it said in a statement on its website, as tensions in Ukraine escalate. The statement says that Chinese should not head to “unstable” areas, and that they should also stock up on food and water. The embassy noted that Chinese associations should help out Chinese in Ukraine.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 21:15

  • "Act Of Intimidation" – Australia Blasts China For Laser Attack On Spy Plane
    “Act Of Intimidation” – Australia Blasts China For Laser Attack On Spy Plane

    Australia-China relations have soured in recent years as decoupling continues. Last week, the latest rumblings between the two nations occurred when a Chinese warship targeted an Australian spy plane with a laser, according to CNN. 

    Economically, Australia has supplied China’s industries with commodities for decades. However, when the Australian government led an international call for the inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, in 2020, Beijing became furious. It slapped anti-dumping duties on Australian barley and other products. Chinese importers were forced to stop purchasing Australian coal, liquefied natural gas, and other commodities. 

    A growing trade rift has morphed into a geopolitical crisis between Canberra and Beijing in the Indo-Pacific area. Tensions jumped Thursday when Canberra said a People’s Liberation Army warship targeted an Australian P-8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft with a laser. Canberra called the incident an “act of intimidation.” 

    On Monday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the incident “dangerous” and “reckless.”

    “This was dangerous, it was unprofessional and it was reckless for a professional navy, and we want some answers as to why they did this. At worst, it was intimidating and bullying.

    “They’re the ones who need to explain, not just to Australia, but to think of all the countries in our region. It could occur to anyone else who is just simply doing the normal surveillance of their own Exclusive Economic Zone,” Morrison said. 

    Morrison has yet to hear from Chinese defense officials about the incident though China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said the vessel abided by international law.

    “After checking with relevant Chinese authorities, the information released by the Australian side is not true. The normal navigation of the Chinese ship on the high seas conforms to relevant international law and practice and is completely legitimate and lawful.

    “We urge the Australian side to respect the legitimate rights of Chinese vessels in relevant waters in accordance with international law and stop maliciously spreading false information about China,” Wenbin said.

    State-run tabloid the Global Times even flipped the script and accused Canberra of trying to damage Beijing’s maritime reputation.

    “The Australian military knowingly hyped this with the aim of throwing mud at China,” the article said.

    This isn’t the first time China’s military has used lasers against aircraft. In 2018, the Pentagon notified all U.S. airmen operating in Djibouti to be careful of lasers directed at them by military personnel at a Chinese base in the African country. There have been numerous incidents of U.S. airmen targeted by Chinese lasers in the western Pacific Ocean. 

    The latest encounter comes as the world is concentrated on the crisis in Ukraine and whether Russia will invade. There are hopes for a diplomatic resolution. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 20:40

  • Israel Will "Never" Come To Terms With "Weaker" Iran Nuclear Deal
    Israel Will “Never” Come To Terms With “Weaker” Iran Nuclear Deal

    Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com, 

    With reports of an imminent return to the Iran nuclear deal, Israel is being very public in their disapproval of the matter, and how ‘weak’ they think the deal ultimately will be.

    The deal isn’t public yet, and looks fairly straightforward. Israel has been grousing at the talks for months, however, and the truth of the deal matters much less than the Israeli government being mad about it.

    Former army chief, now Defense Minister Benny Gantz, via The Washington Post

    DM Benny Gantz was the most clear about how intractable Israel will be, saying Israel could never come to terms with Iran becoming a nuclear threshold state.

    “Action must be taken to ensure that Iran does not continue to enrich in additional facilities and oversight must be increased,” he said. Gantz demanded that the IAEA continue to investigate open files of wrongdoing. “Development of ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads must be stopped,” he added.

    “Iran takes over failed states, forcing them to defend Iranian interests while committing human rights violations,” he charged of Israel’s longtime nemenis.

    This as Prime Minister Naftali Bennet said “We may see an agreement shortly,” adding that the current deal in progress in Vienna “is shorter and weaker than the previous one.”

    To be clear, a nuclear threshold state is a nation without nuclear arms, but with the technological capability to build them. There are any number of nations with threshold capacity, simply by virtue of technological advancement.

    That means Iran doesn’t have to do anything antagonistic, and Israel will still be unhappy with them in general.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 20:05

  • With Ratings In Death Throes, CNN Finds New Shiny Object In Ukraine Drama
    With Ratings In Death Throes, CNN Finds New Shiny Object In Ukraine Drama

    As CNN struggles to maintain their last shred of credibility amid record low ratings and multiple sex scandals, the beleaguered cable news network has found a new shiny object: Ukraine.

    Forbes recaps CNN‘s terrible month so far, starting with the ouster of president Jeff Zucker over an inappropriate workplace relationship:

    Zucker’s exit has led to a series of damaging reports, including a New York Times story detailing Gollust’s role in influencing the questions to be asked during a live interview with then-Governor Andrew Cuomo. Gollust was forced to resign from CNN on February 15. She denies violating journalistic norms in passing along suggested questions from Cuomo—for whom she had worked previously—to network producers.

    Now, a review of ratings data compiled by Nielsen shows the internal chaos at the network is mirrored by deep declines in viewership across all day parts—total day and prime time. Through February 15, CNN’s average prime time audience among viewers 25-54—the key demographic valued by advertisers—was just 126,000, representing a 69% drop from the same period one year ago. Among total viewers, the average audience was 534,000, a decline of 68% from 2021.

    *  *  *

    And so, with their own house on fire and ratings in the toilet, CNN is doing what they do best – latching onto and amplifying the outrage du jour – in this case, Ukraine.

    As Kalev Leetaru notes at RealClear Politics:

    How are the latest Ukraine developments being covered on television news? The timeline below shows the total seconds of airtime across CNN, MSNBC, Fox News and BBC News London since the start of this year in which Ukraine was mentioned somewhere in the onscreen text, showing a surge of mentions starting in late January, then declining through around February 11th, before surging again and then leveling off or declining slightly.

    Just since the start of this year, CNN has mentioned Ukraine more than twice as much as Fox News.

    Looking at spoken mentions of Ukraine and adding several additional international channels, a similar pattern emerges, though with an additional surge of mentions about a week earlier.

    Since the start of this year, Al Jazeera, Russia Today and DW have mentioned Ukraine the most.

    Looking instead at mentions of Putin, rather than Ukraine, Al Jazeera, DW and Russia Today rank at the bottom, with CNN and MSNBC mentioning Putin the most, reflecting differing narrative framings that emphasize either Ukraine or Russia more.

    *  *  *

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 19:30

  • America's Forgotten Seven Million: Unlocking Financial Freedom Through Bitcoin
    America’s Forgotten Seven Million: Unlocking Financial Freedom Through Bitcoin

    Authored by Ray Youssef via Bitcoin Magazine,

    Bitcoin is about people, not price.

    While the U.S. continues to focus on bitcoin as an investment asset, other parts of the world are showing us the true use cases of Bitcoin. In countries like Argentina, El Salvador and Nigeria, Bitcoin is a means to financial inclusion. The emerging markets demonstrate that Bitcoin has the power to connect the unbanked and underbanked to the larger global financial ecosystem. They are providing a strong foundation for the West, showing us how Bitcoin can reduce wealth inequality and solve some of the world’s greatest financial challenges.

    In 2021, 18% of American adults were either unbanked or underbanked. The unbanked, often from underinvested communities, did not even have access to a basic bank account, while the underbanked were shut out from banking services based on income or a lack of education. Bitcoin finally changes this narrative, offering a solution for the millions ignored by today’s financial system. Peer-to-peer finance provides a real and sustainable alternative to traditional finance for the 99% and beyond, giving the next generation a new chance at economic opportunity.

    EDUCATION FOR THE PEOPLE

    Education on Bitcoin and its true use cases remain the biggest challenge in the U.S. Bitcoin has the power to reduce barriers to wealth for the forgotten seven million who remain unbanked. It is access to financial opportunity for the 100%, bridging the gap for the underrepresented. When mayors from cities like New York and Miami begin to call for Bitcoin education to be taught in schools, we know that our time is now.

    We’re seeing progress happen across the country. In places like the Bronx, New York, students are being taught the value of peer-to-peer networks as a tool for financial freedom. And at universities, Bitcoin courses are being integrated into their curriculum. But, this is just the beginning of unlocking the true power of Bitcoin education. Through Bitcoin, the people have the opportunity to take financial power back into their own hands, and it’s our responsibility to do our part to fill this gap.

    By staying connected to the streets, businesses and leaders in the space can utilize their platforms for good. Take El Salvador for example. At Paxful, we’re seeing the need for education on the ground. While the country became the first to roll out bitcoin as legal tender, the biggest challenge for the people remains education. In response, we’ve launched La Casa del Bitcoin, a new education and training center in San Salvador. The center is providing free, no-cost education to anyone interested in learning about the power of Bitcoin and giving them the tools they need to succeed.

    BITCOIN IN AMERICA

    Bitcoin is a borderless and permissionless technology that was built for the world. It is a tool that can move value across borders and change the way people access the global economy. For Renata Rodrigues, a Paxful user (and employee) in the U.S., bitcoin is a means for supporting her family overseas in Brazil. By buying and selling bitcoin, she is able to avoid expensive remittance fees while also earning a little in return. Addressing the issues of both price and speed in traditional methods of remittance, Bitcoin solves this.

    The next wave of Bitcoin adoption has begun. With cryptocurrency making its debut at America’s biggest sporting event of the year, we know that we’re on our way to reaching mass adoption. But Bitcoin will never reach its full potential in the U.S. if we continue to view it solely for speculation and investment rather than connecting to its real use cases. Let’s not make the mistake of mirroring it after traditional financial systems and use education to drive financial freedom. Because global Bitcoin adoption begins and ends with education. It’s time to put the “greed is good” narrative to bed and start working for the people.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 18:55

  • It "Was Not Made To Be Housing" – NYC Mayor Unveils Crackdown On Homeless "Cancerous Sore" On Subway System
    It “Was Not Made To Be Housing” – NYC Mayor Unveils Crackdown On Homeless “Cancerous Sore” On Subway System

    Following a string of violent crimes on the New York subway system in recent weeks, including a knife attack on Feb. 17 in broad daylight, freshly minted New York Mayor Eric Adams is making an aggressive push to try to remove homeless people, announcing a plan to start barring people from sleeping on trains or riding the same lines all night.

    “People tell me about their fear of using the system and we are going to ensure that fear is not New York’s reality,” Adams said.

    “The system is not made to be housing,” Adams said Friday at a press conference.

    “It’s made to be transportation and we have to return back to that basic philosophy.”

    Alongside Adams, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul echoed his comments, saying that:

    “we know it’s a big problem. But shame on us if this moment in time, if we don’t turn over every single stone, find every possible way to to deal with this.”

    Adams called it a complex problem, saying:

    “You can’t put a band-aid on a cancerous sore,” but, “You must remove the cancer and start the healing process.”

    Of course, this prompted outrage among some with Shelly Nortz, the deputy executive director for policy at the Coalition for the Homeless, calling the mayor’s comment “sickening” and said “criminalizing homelessness” was not the answer.

    “Repeating the failed outreach-based policing strategies of the past will not end the suffering of homeless people bedding down on the subway. It is sickening to hear Mayor Adams liken unsheltered homeless people to a cancer. They are human beings,” Nortz said.

    Police Commissioner Keechant Seweell said the police department will start enforcing the new rules in New York City subway this week.

    Police teams, she said, will focus on high-traffic areas or areas where there have been reports of crime.

    As OPB reports, subway ridership cratered during the pandemic, homeless people have become more visible, sometimes sleeping on platforms or several seats on a train, something the mayor has said contributes to a general feeling of “disorder” in the nations’ largest city. The mayor, who has emphasized the appearance of crime and disorder as being just as important to tackle as the actual crime statistics, said it was unacceptable that the system allowed, in one case, a woman to live under a stairway inside a station for months.

    “That is not dignity. That is disgusting,” he said. “And that’s not who we are as a city.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 18:20

  • Equity Futures Open Down Hard; Gold, Oil, & Treasuries Spike
    Equity Futures Open Down Hard; Gold, Oil, & Treasuries Spike

    As somewhat expected, the general risk-off theme has hit market as they reopened after Putin’s actions.

    US equity futures extended their losses with Nasdaq down over 2.5%…

    Treasury futures indicate a 5bps or so drop in the 30Y Yield to around 2.18%…

    WTI spiked above $94…

    And Gold is above $1915…

    The question is – what headline between now and tomorrow’s open will spark the algos into life and lift stocks green?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 18:08

  • Border Crisis Can't Wait Three More Years For A New Administration To Fix: Russ Vought
    Border Crisis Can’t Wait Three More Years For A New Administration To Fix: Russ Vought

    Authored by Harry Lee and Steve Lance via THe Epoch Times,

    The situation at the southern border has been so bad that it can’t wait three more years for a new administration to step in, and border states have the constitutional authority to defend themselves, according to Russ Vought, former director of the Office of Management and Budget under the Trump administration.

    “We have a real crisis along our border: record apprehensions; the drug cartels are basically in operational control of our border; massive amounts of drugs are coming across the southern border,” Vought said in an interview with NTD’s “Capitol Report” program on Feb. 12.

    “And so from the standpoint of where we are, as a country, we’re no longer in a position where the country can just wait three years to have a potential for a new administration to come in into power.”

    In the calendar year 2021, the southern border had over two million encounters, according to data from Customs and Border Protection (CBP). That doesn’t include the number of “gotaways”—those who Border Patrol detects but doesn’t capture—but The Epoch Times has been told it was about 600,000 for 2021.

    Russ Vought in an interview with NTD’s “Capitol Report” broadcast on Feb. 12, 2022. (Screenshot via The Epoch Times)

    CBP has reported a 1,066 percent increase in fentanyl seized in south Texas ports during the fiscal year 2021.

    “This administration has an ideologically open-border policy. They refuse to execute the law,” Vought said.

    “We got to use these governors to be able to say: what is the maximum that the Constitution allows for them to do?”

    Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas has repeatedly said that the border is closed, “do not come.”

    “We look back at the Constitution, say, what did the founders mean when they looked at an invasion. It wasn’t just foreign nation-states. It was bandits, gangs, large groups of people that it was hard to get a handle on from a security standpoint. And we’ve said that constitutes an invasion that the Constitution then says there are self-help provisions to allow them to defend their people and keep them safe,” Vought said.

    Vought said his organization called on the border governors late last year to exercise such authorities, and it’s the fruition of their work that triggered Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich to issue a legal opinion (pdf) last week stating that states have such authority.

    Vought founded a non-profit organization named the Center for Renewing America after he left office in 2021.

    “The responsibility is now on the governor of Arizona and the governor of Texas to be able to say: we’re going to articulate that legally; we have this responsibility as Commanders-in-Chief of our state to be able to give rules of engagement to our National Guards or the Department of Public Safety or the sheriffs and say, interdict and remove individuals back to Mexico, and to be able to stop the flow of illegal immigration as a result,” Vought said.

    Vought believed that governors have such authority, but he acknowledged that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey have been unwilling to do it so far.

    The two governors’ offices haven’t responded to a request for comment.

    Last week, when asked by 12News KPNX, Ducey tried to dodge the question first, then he responded, “I think you ought to read the opinion in full … It doesn’t even mention the National Guard.”

    However, Brnovich’s opinion did say the National Guard is the state’s militia, and the governor is “commander-in-chief.”

    Some analysts and attorneys have challenged Brnovich’s opinion.

    “The idea that he is representing the Founders’ view on this issue is totally incorrect. The Founders were quite clear that the invasion clause is, as James Madison put it, an operation of the military,” David Bier of the Cato Institute told 12News KPNX.

    “I think we’re winning this debate,” Vought told NTD. “even if Governor Doug Ducey does not do this in Arizona, the candidates who are running to replace him are committing themselves to this position.”

    At least one Republican gubernatorial candidate in Arizona, Kari Lake, called for an interstate compact that would declare the states are under “invasion” and secure the border. Lake is leading among Republican candidates for the primary in a January poll. Due to term limits, Ducey has served two terms and can’t run for reelection.

    Former President Donald Trump and Kari Lake, whom Trump is supporting in Arizona’s gubernatorial race, speak during a rally at the Canyon Moon Ranch festival grounds in Florence, Arizona, on Jan. 15, 2022. (Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images)

    “Our view is that come next year, this will happen in Arizona. And our view is if it happens in Arizona, it’s going to put massive pressure on Texas to do it. And then once those two states [do it], those are two of the three big areas for illegal immigration, that puts a lot of pressure on the other two states that are led by Democrat governors,” Vought said.

    “Our view is that over time, this is something that will have a domino effect.”

    The Epoch Times has contacted the Department of Homeland Security for comment.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 17:45

  • China Sanctions Raytheon, Lockheed Over Taiwan Deal To "Safeguard Its Sovereignty"
    China Sanctions Raytheon, Lockheed Over Taiwan Deal To “Safeguard Its Sovereignty”

    The big wildcard in today’s dramatic escalation in tensions over east Ukraine, is how and when Beijing will react to Putin’s announcement recognizing the Donbass region as independent and immediately deploying “peacekeeping” forces to Donetsk and Lugansk.

    A hint as to what may be coming, came earlier on Monday when China said it would impose new sanctions on U.S. defense contractors Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin due to their arms sales to Taiwan, stepping up a feud with Washington over security and Beijing’s strategic ambitions.

    Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin announced the move at a daily press briefing, citing a newly passed Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law that took effect in 2021. It was in response to a $100 million deal approved by the US for maintenance of Taiwan’s missile defense systems by the two companies.

    “China once again urges the U.S. government and relevant parties to . . . stop arms sales to Taiwan and sever military ties with Taiwan,” Wang said.

    “China will continue to take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard its sovereignty and security interests in accordance with the development of the situation,” he said without giving any details.

    Today’s decision follows China’s announcement in October 2020 it would impose unspecified sanctions on Lockheed Martin and Raytheon after the U.S. approved $1.8 billion in arms sales to Taiwan; Raytheon, maker of Pratt & Whitney jet engines, said at the time it would “remain committed” to the success of its ties to China’s civil aviation industry, while Lockheed said its presence in the country is limited.

    And while the West is united against Russian actions in the Donbas, just as it is united against a possible incursion by China in Taiwan, Russia’s stance on the matter is clear: hours before the Winter Olympics opened two weeks ago, Putin and Xi Jinping declared that they are backing each other over standoffs on Ukraine and Taiwan with a promise to collaborate more against the West.

    At the time, Russia voiced its support for China’s stance that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and opposition to any form of independence for the island; the announcement was promptly met by an angry response by Taiwan which condemned as “contemptible” the timing of China and Russia’s “no limits” partnership.

    So while Beijing has so far been silent in its response to the latest news out of the Kremlin, it would be surprising if China were to voice an opposition to Putin’s plan of action – which was almost certainly crafted with the tacit approval of Beijing – and implicitly side with the west, now that the two countries are clearly formalizing an anti-western axis.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 17:27

  • Ottawa Mayor Proposes To Sell Confiscated 'Freedom Convoy" Trucks
    Ottawa Mayor Proposes To Sell Confiscated ‘Freedom Convoy” Trucks

    Ottawa police put an end to the “Freedom Convoy” protest in the downtown district that lasted for three weeks. On Friday and Saturday, officers arrested demonstrators and seized their vehicles. Now Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson wants to sell those seized trucks and campers to recoup millions of dollars the city lost during the three weeks of gridlock. 

    On Sunday, Watson told Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) that trucks, campers, and other vehicles seized from the convoy should be sold off, claiming Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s emergency powers could give him authority to do so. 

    “Under the Emergencies Act, I’ve asked our solicitor and our city manager, ‘how can we keep the tow trucks and the campers and the vans and everything else that we’ve confiscated, and sell those pieces of equipment to help recoup some of the costs that our taxpayers are absorbing?'” Watson told state media. 

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    Ottawa police tweeted 79 vehicles in total were seized and towed to impound yards. 

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    City Treasurer Wendy Stephanson recently noted demonstrators cost the Canadian capital CAD 1 million ($785k) per day. “We should ding those people who have caused this chaos,” Watson said in a separate interview with CTV. 

    It’s unclear whether the mayor will follow through with his plant to sell the vehicles. There’s also no word if the vehicles at auction would even cover the $14 million cost of policing expenses. 

    Interim Police Chief Steve Bell told reporters that clearing out demonstrators over the weekend was “extremely expensive.” 

    “We’ve already talked to our federal and provincial partners about how, at the end of the day, we will look at having money provided to the police service for that. Those discussions are ongoing,” Bell said. “We continue to track our costs. Our partners continue to work with us to identify the costs of policing to actually manage this event and, at the culmination of it, we will be able to provide accurate figures.”

    Bell said on Saturday the “unlawful occupation is over.” He added on Sunday that security fences with “very heavy police presence” were placed around the downtown areas.

    The trucker convoy has yet to release a statement about their seized vehicles and what their response will be… One would assume they would lawyer up and use donated funds in an attempt to retrieve their vehicles. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 17:15

  • War Or Images Of War?
    War Or Images Of War?

    Authored by Edward Curtin via AntiWar.com,

    Experienced foreign policy analysts such as Ray McGovern, Scott Ritter, and Pepe Escobar, while agreeing that the Biden administration is clearly guilty of provoking Russia over Ukraine, are divided over whether it will lead to war. All agree that Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine and that it is clearly justified in demanding safe borders by insisting US/NATO withdraw troops and missiles from the countries surrounding it, stop NATO’s “open door” policy, stop putting nuclear weapons in Europe, etc.

    Clearly such demands are consonant with the US’s own historical demands for safe borders, evidenced most clearly in the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 when the world nearly suffered a nuclear war over Soviet missiles in Cuba. And equally obvious is the fact that the American posture today is hypocritical in the extreme and can only be accepted by propagandists and those ignorant of history.

    Image: Associated Press

    The Biden administration must assume that most people are ignoramuses and that its obvious belligerence and blatant propaganda will pass as some sort of defense of freedom, even when the US engineered a Ukrainian coup d’état in 2014 in support of Neo-Nazis when Biden was President Obama’s vice-president. But that was nearly eight years ago, which is an eternity in a country of amnesiacs.

    Whether this US persistent aggression is a propaganda charade or not, it is a most dangerous game. In December 2021, Russia claimed that the US was preparing a false flag event to provoke a Russian response. This was dismissed or ignored by the western media as absurd. Recently, however, the Biden administration has been pounding the message that it is Russia that is preparing a false flag event to blame on Ukraine in order to justify a Russian invasion.

    The western press, led by The New York Times, CNN, The Guardian, and the Washington Post – stenographers for the CIA, British intelligence, and the Pentagon – have become more hysterical by the day pushing this lie without any evidence whatsoever. It is sardonically comical. If evidence doesn’t exist, it can be manufactured, such as weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, etc. It’s easy as pie. To call these media the Yellow Press is an understatement.

    When Russia accuses the US of using “information terrorism,” it is of course correct. For we are living in an MKULTRA mind control operation with multiple facets. Ukraine, Covid, economic warfare, etc. – a hydra-headed monster whose goal is total control of regular people, who are treated as morons incapable of reason and the most basic logic. Toward confirming and strengthening this premise, the media provide a daily menu of mixed and contradictory messages meant to confuse, confound, and mess with people’s sense of their own ability to understand the world.

    If the public is to be convinced that the Russians have started a war, it will be attempted not so much through words as through images, as Gustave Le Bon predicted long ago in his book, The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind. In analyzing the “crowd mind” in 1895, he was addressing the anxiety the middle class was feeling because of popular unrest. The fear of popular unrest, such as the truckers Freedom Convoy in Canada and the Yellow Vests in France, is today a major factor in the propaganda war waged by the elite press. Call it class warfare.

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    Le Bon argued that the crowd thinks in images, not words, and it is through images that the rulers can control them. Freud agreed with his basic premise that people in groups occupied an “hypnotic state,” while adding that this was also true for individuals who craved illusions. Pessimistic as it was, Le Bon’s point about the crowd thinking in images – “The image itself immediately calls up a series of other images, having no logical connection to the first” – was picked up by all the influential propagandists, including the American father of the euphemistically named “public relations,” Edward Bernays. Today it is all about images, still and moving ones.

    Thus, one can expect to see the media using photos and film to create an emotional response in the population to convince it that Russia, not the US is the villain in this standoff. Yet again, it may not be a standoff, for it is possible that the Biden administration is really intent on war because they have become completely untethered from reality and think such a war is winnable. Perhaps they think they can entice Russia to take their bait and do something that can be spun as an “invasion” of Ukraine. This would run counter to Russia’s long-standing, patient diplomatic efforts to resolve these matters and to convince the US/NATO that the unipolar era is over and now that it is a multipolar world there must be an end to the encircling of Russia with US/NATO troops and weapons.

    We shall see. I don’t know whether there will be a major war or not, but I know how it will be managed. I’ll give you six guesses, as does The New York Times with its newly acquired word game, Wordle.  The Grey Lady also knows the answer. It’s not “censor,” for that’s six not five letters and they’ve censored the words already. It’s not “slave,” for they have prohibited that word since some people might find it offensive or get the idea that censorship is used to create slaves to the lie. It is, as required, five letters and begins with the letter “I”.

    Try to picture it. It’s easy if you try.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 16:50

  • Oil Prices Will Be Above $100 For A "Prolonged Period"
    Oil Prices Will Be Above $100 For A “Prolonged Period”

    As Bloomberg’s Jake Lloyd-Smith wrote last night, oil markets are so bullish at present that forecasts for $100/bbl crude have become par for the course, which suggests that the threshold will be tested in 1H, “even if tensions over Ukraine cool,” which now appears improbably and is why $100 oil may come as soon as tomorrow.

    As the BBG reporter notes, “the three-digit-barrel forecast surfaced at least a year ago and used to turn heads given it was bold, and prices were way, way lower back then. It’s founded principally on the case that energy consumption returning to normal as the pandemic ebbs will underpin gains”.

    Goldman Sachs added its voice to the chorus not so long ago, when its chief commodity strategist and one of the closest-followed analysts on Wall Street, said he’s never seen commodity markets pricing in the shortages they are right now.

    “I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,” Currie told Bloomberg TV in an interview last week. “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

    Last week, JPMorgan echoed Goldman’s lament, when the bank’s global head of oil trading Jake Pashelinsky sent the following note around the bank’s trading desks (full note available to professional subs):

    I can’t stress enough how tight near term fundamentals are, we are running out of molecules and don’t have enough storage to bridge the gap to potentially looser 2h22 balances.

    We have Cushing modelled at going into refinery maintenance season near tank bottoms and getting almost no resupply

    this market will do anything to avoid running dry and the only real option in the near term is to price to demand destruction which is north of here.

    Then, as Lloyd-Smith notes, the latest riff on the theme comes from Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol Group, the boss of the world’s largest independent oil trader, who’d already flagged the possibility back in November. This is what Bloomberg reported overnight:

    Oil prices could be set for a “prolonged period” above $100 a barrel over the next six to nine months, with the world setting fresh demand records this year, said Vitol Group Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy.

    Crude already surged to within a few dollars of that level earlier this month, as the recovery in fuel use from the pandemic started to run into supply constraints. In an interview in London with Bloomberg television, the boss of the world’s largest independent oil trader said the market will get tighter, with daily consumption set to rise well above pre-Covid levels by the end of 2022.

    “The 100 million-barrel number is probably going to be exceeded this year,” Hardy said. “Demand is going to surge in the second half” if travel continues to return to normal.

    Even before the potential risk of Russian sanctions, which could chop off a portion of the country’s 7.5 million barrels of oil daily, energy supplies had been struggling to keep up with a robust economic recovery. Several OPEC+ members, plagued by under-investment and disruptions, aren’t able to revive all of the output they shut down in 2020. Many companies, from U.S. shale drillers to global supermajors, are focused on giving cash to shareholders instead of growing production.

    The result is a surge in oil prices that’s feeding an inflationary spike. The situation threatens to derail the global economic recovery and inflict a cost-of-living crisis on millions.

    “More crude is required,” Hardy said. With daily demand rising by the end of this year to 1 million or 2 million barrels a day above end-2019 levels, “the whole system is going to be fairly tight.”

    Now throw in the risk of some Russian oil being sanctioned off from global markets and one can see why so many fear that this time there will indeed be blood.

    And while we wait to see what the full Western response to Russian actions will be, Brent soared by more than $3 today and settled at $96.61. Expect it to briskly rise above $100 if Europe even so as hints that Russian energy output will be impacted by the upcoming sanctions.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 16:25

  • Ethereum Co-Founder Welcomes "Crypto Winter" To Flush Out Speculation, Says Canadian Tyranny Bolsters Need For Decentralization
    Ethereum Co-Founder Welcomes “Crypto Winter” To Flush Out Speculation, Says Canadian Tyranny Bolsters Need For Decentralization

    It has not been a good few months from the crypto world. After rampaging higher during the middle of last year, cryptocurrencies have broadly speaking dropped around 40-50% since their November highs, and have become more and more correlated with the traditional financial system as long-duration, hyper-growth companies have seen their share prices decimated by the realization that ‘this time is serious’ from The Fed on their policy-tightening plans.

    And while 98-year-old curmudgeons are busily saying cryptos are “like some venereal disease … I just regard it as beneath contempt,” the rest of the tech world is beavering away envisioning – and creating – web3 – the decentralized new internet.

    The current drawdown is painful for some, and prompts yet more pronouncements from the establishment that ‘cryptos are dead’, Bloomberg reports that Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of the Ethereum blockchain, says the digital-asset universe may actually benefit from the current retreat in coin prices that’s cast a chill on investors and is being referred to as another crypto winter.

    “The people who are deep into crypto, and especially building things, a lot of them welcome a bear market,” Buterin said during an interview with Bloomberg.

    “They welcome the bear market because when there are these long periods of prices moving up by huge amounts like it does — it does obviously make a lot of people happy — but it does also tend to invite a lot of very short-term speculative attention.”

    Buterin said in a recent statement that he believes Ethereum can become a world computer after becoming a more efficient base layer for applications, and now is the time for that to escalate.

    “The winters are the time when a lot of those applications fall away and you can see which projects are actually long-term sustainable, like both in their models and in their teams and their people.

    The 28-year-old crypto billionaire remains bullish on Ethereum and notes that the eventual convergence of Proof of Stake (PoS) and the Ethereum application layer is crucial.

    Yet Buterin, who said he’s “surprised” by how the market has moved since last year, isn’t sure whether crypto has entered another winter or the sector is just mirroring the volatility in broader markets.

    “It does feel like the crypto markets kind of flip the switch from being this niche group that’s controlled by a very niche group of participants and it’s fairly disconnected to traditional markets into something that behaves more and more like it is part of the mainstream financial markets,” he said from Denver on Feb. 12.

    Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital is reportedly accelerating its pace of hiring to capitalize on a boom of talent that is still shifting into digital assets, and as if right on cue, Buterin noted in a very recent interview, the Canadian government’s decision to invoke the Emergencies Act – in an attempt to restrict the flow of funds to truck drivers protesting the country’s COVID restrictions – show why cryptocurrencies exist.

    As cryptovib.com reports, in an interview held at the ETHDenver conference, Buterin, who grew up in Canada, described the government’s response to the protests as extreme, saying that cryptocurrencies offer a safeguard against such extremism:

    “If the government isn’t willing to enforce the law… [and] gives people a chance to defend themselves… and they just want to talk to the banks and basically cut people’s livelihoods without due process, that’s is an example of how decentralized technology exists to make this kind of extremism difficult.”

    Buterin says cryptocurrencies are not radical, but corrective, emphasizing the danger of using banks to stop protesters:

    “It’s not about being illegal. In a way, it’s about restoring the rule of law. Governments and police can still act legally and go after suspects “as usual” without commissioning financial intermediaries… The idea of ​​going after intermediaries and using intermediaries for all this is dangerous.”

    Coming full circle, back to Charlie Munger’s mumbling rant, he did note one thing that was drastically under-reported by the mainstream media…

    Munger says “inflation is a very serious subject. You can argue that it’s the way democracies die… If you overdo it, you can ruin your civilization, so it’s a long-range danger.”

    “The safe assumption for investors is that over the next 100 years, the [fiat] currency is going to zero… that’s my working hypothesis.”

    And in a not ironic way at all we suggest to Buffett’s boy-wonder: “crypto solves that.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 16:00

  • Europe, US Preparing To Impose Sanctions On Russia
    Europe, US Preparing To Impose Sanctions On Russia

    Now that Putin has officially recognized the separatists regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent, sovereign states, warning that from this moment onward, Ukraine must halt all military actions against Donbas, or whatever happens next will be on them and the West, it was only a matter of time before Europe (and the West) retaliated with progressively escalating sanctions.

    Sure enough, the ink wasn’t quite dry yet on Putin’s signature, when the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, Josep Borrell Fontelles tweeted that “the recognition of the two separatist territories in Ukraine is a blatant violation of international law, the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the Minsk agreements” adding that “The EU and its partners will react with unity, firmness and with determination in solidarity with Ukraine.”

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    Others chimed in, led by the Latvian foreign minister who said the EU must immediately impose sanctions on Russia after it recognized the separatist regions, while moments later the Polish prime minister said that Russia’s decision is an act of aggression on Ukraine, and that sanctions should be imposed immediately.

    In a kneejerk response, European Commission president von der Leyen confirmed that the union will react with sanctions against Russia’s recognition of independence of the Ukraine regions, which is a blatant violation of international law as well as the Minsk agreements.

    UK foreign minister Truss was also quick to note that Putin’s action signals the end of the Minsk process and violates the UN charter, noting that Russia has decided to choose confrontation over dialogue.

    NATO president Stoltenberg joined the chorus condemning Russia’s decision to recognize the independence of the Ukraine rebel regions.

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    Meanwhile, according to a report from WSJ’s Laurence Norman, “the actual EU sanctions situation re Russia is that consultations are going on at the top level of the EU institutions and there will be consultations with Washington and London on whether tonight should be trigger point for sanctions.”

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    Biden has also been looped in, with Ukraine president Zelensky stating that he has already spoken to the US president in a phone call that is said to have lasted 35 minutes. Some more details from Reuters on what the US response will be:

    • WHITE HOUSE SAYS PRESIDENT BIDEN WILL SOON ISSUE AN EXECUTIVE ORDER THAT WILL PROHIBIT NEW INVESTMENT, TRADE, AND FINANCING BY U.S. PERSONS TO, FROM, OR IN THE SO-CALLED DNR AND LNR REGIONS OF UKRAINE
    • WHITE HOUSE SAYS WE WILL ALSO SOON ANNOUNCE ADDITIONAL MEASURES RELATED TO TODAY’S BLATANT VIOLATION OF RUSSIA’S INTERNATIONAL COMMITMENTS
    • WHITE HOUSE SAYS THESE MEASURES ARE SEPARATE FROM AND WOULD BE IN ADDITION TO THE SWIFT AND SEVERE ECONOMIC MEASURES WE HAVE BEEN PREPARING IN COORDINATION WITH ALLIES IF FURTHER INVASION
    • WHITE HOUSE SAYS WE ARE CONTINUING TO CLOSELY CONSULT WITH ALLIES AND PARTNERS, INCLUDING UKRAINE, ON NEXT STEPS AND ON RUSSIA’S ONGOING ESCALATION ALONG THE BORDER WITH UKRAINE

    What is curious about the upcoming Biden EO is that he is punishing the separatist regions – which at least officially are part of Ukraine – effectively admitting with his punitive actions that they are now part of Russia. As for Biden, at least check he was speaking to Macron and Scholz:

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    What is most remakrable, is that the bickering within Europe on the proper response appears to have already begun, as the WSJ’s Norman explains:

    Let’s just back up a sec on where EU stands on #Russia sanctions. The question is not is there a serious sanctions package on the table if Russia invades Ukraine? Because the answer to that is clearly yes. The question is what’s the trigger? Invasion or recognition of Don/Luh?

    As of now, despite confusion spread earlier by @JosepBorrellF, seems that EU will apply targeted sanctions over those involved in the “recognition” decision. We don’t yet know if that will include Putin. BUT NONE OF THAT MEANS rest of sanctions package won’t be used if invasion.

    And to add to that, there is no consensus among member states yet on whether recognition is the correct big sanctions trigger. There is at least one country — Hungary — that argues (not necessarily inaccurately) that sanctions package was drawn up for invasion/incursion and we’re not at that point yet.

    And let’s all remember that even one member state could veto this move.

    So there’s lots of assessing going on about next steps, including with non-EU partners. Not clear where that ends up yet.

    Assuming Europe can eventually agree on a sanctions package, one key question is whether Putin will even be targeted:

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    And another big question is whether Europe – which is extremely reliant on Russian energy – will go so far as sanctioning Russian gas imports, ensuring a spike in energy prices in the coming days, and whether the West will seek to eject Russian from SWIFT, which will either bring Russia even closer to China or could become a bullish catalyst for cryptocurrencies.

    And while we wait for the Western unified response, we wonder what, if anything, China will say in response to Putin’s announcement and whether the Russian president acted without first pre-clearing his action with Beijing.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 02/21/2022 – 15:30

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